HQ-121545

FAA Aerospace Forecast

Fiscal Years 2012-2032

U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Aviation Administration

Aviation Policy and Plans

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

Message from the Administrator

The aviation industry continued to show resilience last year despite tough economic times. The 

activity of U.S. carriers at home and abroad increased by 3.5 percent in 2011. Despite a slight 

pause in growth projected for 2012, we expect that over the long run, aviation will continue to 

experience steady, moderate growth. 

U.S. airlines have returned to profitability in the last two years and we expect that trend will 

continue in 2012 as well. 

This forecast looks at how many planes and how many people will fly on U.S. carriers in the 

future – from 2012 to 2032. We want to see a picture of air travel in the next 20 years, and we 

want to know what we at the FAA should strive to meet and accommodate. 

The FAA sees a competitive and profitable industry continuing to grow over the long term 

despite the fact that we are operating in a climate of economic uncertainty and rising oil prices. 

As the economy continues to recover, the total number of takeoffs and landings and the 

number of passengers who board U.S. airlines will continue to climb. This year, we expect that 

international markets for U.S. carriers will continue to grow faster than domestic markets, as 

they did last year. 

The forecast calls for a slight decrease –less than one percent—in domestic capacity in 2012, 

as measured by available seat miles. This is after a 2 percent increase in 2011. Despite this 

pause in growth, the FAA projects continued growth between 2 percent and 3 percent per year 

over the next 20 years. 

This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 

1.2 billion in 2032. 

Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is 

expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. 

Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft 

handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase 

by 50 percent.

Over the next 20 years, large airports will continue to grow faster than their smaller 

counterparts in the United States. We are forecasting that the number of larger regional jets 

will increase, while most of the smaller regional jets will be retired from the fleet. 

On the general aviation front, the demand for products and services will continue to grow, 

particularly in new business jets and light sport aircraft. 

As our aviation system advances into the next century of flight, the solution for handling the 

demand for service is the Next Generation Air Transportation System, or NextGen. We are in 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

the process of transforming our national air space system from the ground-based radar of 

today, to the satellite-based system of tomorrow. 

This is a fundamental change in the way the United States and the world will navigate and 

control air traffic. Precise, satellite-based navigation is already revolutionizing the way we do 

business today. Technology is helping us to become safer, quieter, cleaner and more efficient 

with our assets. 

We are creating a new template for the way we manage air traffic, yet the FAA’s core mission 

remains the same. We will continue to work every day to deliver the safest and most efficient 

aerospace system in the world. 

Michael P. Huerta

FAA Acting Administrator
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

Table of Contents

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.........................................................................................................................................1

REVIEW OF 2011.......................................................................................................................................................3

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ...................................................................................................................................5

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.............................................................................................................................8

COMMERCIAL AVIATION ......................................................................................................................................9

World Travel Demand .........................................................................................................................................9

U.S. Travel Demand......................................................................................................................................... 13

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger.......................................................................................................... 14

Domestic Passenger Markets....................................................................................................................... 16

International Passenger Markets.................................................................................................................. 19

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo.................................................................................................................. 21

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region ................................................................................ 23

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2011 Financial Results ..................................................................................... 23

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2011 Aircraft Fleets........................................................................................... 25

GENERAL AVIATION .......................................................................................................................................... 27

FAA WORKLOAD ................................................................................................................................................ 29

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS .......................................................................................................................... 32

ECONOMIC FORECASTS .................................................................................................................................. 34

World Economy ................................................................................................................................................ 36

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS............................................................................................ 38

Commercial Aviation Forecasts........................................................................................................................ 38

Domestic Markets ......................................................................................................................................... 39

International Markets .................................................................................................................................... 44

Commercial Aircraft Fleet................................................................................................................................. 49

General Aviation............................................................................................................................................... 51

FAA Workload Forecasts ................................................................................................................................. 54

FAA and Contract Towers ............................................................................................................................ 54

En-route Centers .......................................................................................................................................... 55

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS...................................................................................................................... 57

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION........................................................................................................ 58

OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................................. 58

REVIEW OF 2011.................................................................................................................................................... 59

GLOBAL FORECAST ................................................................................................................................................ 59

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS ................................................................................................................................ 61

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS................................................................................... 64

SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 64

ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................... 68

Passengers....................................................................................................................................................... 68

Revenue Passenger Miles ............................................................................................................................... 68

Available Seat Miles ......................................................................................................................................... 69

Load Factor ...................................................................................................................................................... 70

Yield.................................................................................................................................................................. 70

Passenger Trip Length ..................................................................................................................................... 71

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY ..................................................................................................... 76

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................. 79

APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES .................................................................................................................... 81
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

1

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

2012-2032

Since the beginning of the century, the commercial air carrier industry has suffered several 

major shocks that have led to reduced demand for air travel. These shocks include the terror 

attacks of September 11, skyrocketing prices for fuel, debt restructuring in Europe and the 

United States (U.S.), and a global recession. To manage this period of extreme volatility, air 

carriers have fine-tuned their business models with the aim of minimizing financial losses by

lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes and grounding older, less fuel efficient 

aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers have initiated new services that customers 

are willing to purchase. Carriers have also started charging separately for services that were

historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The capacity discipline exhibited by carriers and their

focus on additional revenue streams bolstered the industry to profitability in 2011 for the second 

consecutive year. Going into the next decade, there is cautious optimism that the industry has 

been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn and slow recovery in 

recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. The 2012 FAA forecast now calls 

for one billion passengers in 2024, three years later than projected last year. Growth over the 

next five years will be moderate, with a return to historic levels of growth only attainable in the 

long term. This delayed trajectory represents the downward adjustments of the overall 

economy, here in the U.S. and abroad, and the aviation sector’s responses. One of the many 

factors influencing the delayed recovery is the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. and 

European economies. The latter, primarily those belonging to the Euro area, have been hit hard 

by the pressure from bond markets for fiscal austerity. Combined with the slow pace of these 

economies, debt restructuring pulled the European economy into recession in early 2012. This 

has not helped the pace of U.S. economic growth given the importance of its trade with Europe. 

Despite this and the ambiguity surrounding its own fiscal imbalances, the U.S. economy has 

managed to avoid a double dip recession and trudges along the path of slow recovery.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is 

both domestically and internationally – will remain flat this year after posting a 3.4 percent

increase in 2011; it will then grow at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent through 2032. In the 

domestic market, capacity overall shrinks by 0.8 percent in 2012 after having registered an 

increase of 2.0 percent in 2011. Domestic capacity is projected to grow at an average annual 

rate of 2.5 percent for the remainder of the forecast period. Domestic mainline carrier capacity 

will decrease by 0.8 percent in 2012 after registering a one-year increase in 2011 of 2.3 percent 

following three years of decline. For the regional carriers, domestic capacity will shrink by 

0.5 percent from 2011 levels thus registering another decline after shrinking in 2009 – the only

two periods when the industry has shrunk since deregulation. Commercial air carrier domestic 

revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to shrink 0.2 percent in 2012, and then grow at 

an average of 2.8 percent per year through 2032; domestic enplanements in 2012 will decrease

0.1 percent, and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent for the remainder of the 

forecast.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

2

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to increase by 0.2 seats in FY 2012 to 122.8

seats. Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to stay relatively flat as 

network carriers1 continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat 

aircraft continues to increase, we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, 

increasing the average regional aircraft size in 2012 by 0.5 seats to 56.8 seats per mile. 

Passenger trip length in domestic markets will decrease by 1.3 miles during the same period.

Although the slow growth and expectations of a European recession has dampened the near 

term prospects for general aviation, the long-term outlook remains favorable. We see growth in 

business aviation demand over the long term driven by a growing U.S. and world economy

especially in the turbo jet and turbine rotorcraft markets. As the fleet grows, the number of 

general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.7 percent a year through 

2032.

The global economy is facing a prospect of slow growth again including a possible recession in 

the first part of the year in Europe which may slow the demand for air travel. Profitability for

U.S. carriers will hinge on a stable environment for fuel prices, an increase in demand for 

corporate air travel, maintaining the ability to pass along fare increases to leisure travelers, and 

the continual generation of ancillary revenues. To navigate this volatile operating environment, 

mainline carriers will continue to drive down costs by better matching flight frequencies and/or 

aircraft gauge with demand, delaying deliveries of newer aircraft and/or grounding older 

aircraft, along with pressuring regional affiliates to accept lower fees for contract flying. Over 

the long term, we see a competitive and profitable industry characterized by increasing 

demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation.

 1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, United-Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, and U.S. Airways.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

3

REVIEW OF 2011

Although the year 2011 began with a lot of hope for an economic recovery, it was primarily 

characterized as a year of full scale uncertainty. The grim operating environment faced by the 

carriers at the start of the global recession that revolutionized how they operate today also 

helped the industry cope with this uncertainty. Consequently, U.S. airlines made a profit for the 

second consecutive year. A view held by some industry professionals is that recent carrier 

initiatives will provide traction towards profitability, even during future periods of uncertainty,

and this appears to have borne fruit in 2011. One recent initiative by the passenger carriers is a

shift in focus from increasing market share to one of boosting shareholder return on investment.

The U.S. airline industry has become more nimble; that is, adjusting capacity to seize 

opportunities or contracting in times of economic distress. As a result, it expanded its capacity 

by 2.0 percent in 2011 while positioning itself for a reduction of 0.8 percent this year in 

anticipation of the uncertain economic environment. Even during times of economic instability

and distress, the industry has found ways to increase revenue. For example, air carriers are 

charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for 

services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The 

impact from these recent initiatives gives reason for optimism. After posting net losses for eight 

consecutive quarters, the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits in

both 2010 and 2011. 

Demand for air travel in 2011 grew slowly following a dismal 2010 that was marked by fading

consumer confidence, tightening credit, surging unemployment, eroding corporate travel 

budgets, and the pressure of debt restructuring in Europe and the U.S. In 20112 system 

revenue passenger miles increased 3.5 percent as enplanements increased 2.5 percent. 

Commercial air carrier domestic enplanements were up 2.3 percent while international 

enplanements were up 4.4 percent. The system-wide load factor continued to rise to 82.0

percent (up 0.1 points from 2010). Domestic enplanement market share continued to rise for 

low-cost carriers in 2011 while network and “other” carrier and regional carrier share

decreased. Domestic low cost carrier enplanement share increased by 1.1 points to 28.4 

percent while the share of network and “other” carriers fell by 0.4 points to 46.8 percent and 

regional carrier share dropped by 0.6 points to 24.8 percent.

Capacity restraint by the carriers as passenger demand returned helped the system wide real 

yield to increase by 6.4 percent in 2011. Data for FY 2011 show that the reporting passenger 

carriers had a combined operating profit of $5.8 billion (compared to a $7.3 billion operating 

profit for FY 2010). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $4.23 billion

while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $1.1 billion, with four out of 

the five network carriers and five of the nine low cost carriers posting profits. 

The general aviation market continued its decline in calendar year (CY) 2011, although at a 

slower rate. U.S. manufacturer shipments declined for the fourth year in a row, down an 

 2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are 

on a fiscal year (FY) basis (October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international 

economic and world traffic and financial data are on a calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

4

estimated 8.9 percent, even though U.S. billings are estimated to have increased 6.7 percent 

than their CY 2010 levels. Piston aircraft shipments by U.S. manufacturers fell an estimated 

10.5 percent, and turbine aircraft shipments (turboprop and business jets) by U.S. 

manufacturers declined by 7.0 percent in CY 2011 compared to CY 2010. While continuing 

decreases in U.S. shipments reflected the fragile nature of the economic recovery, the pace of 

the decline has slowed. The 7.0 percent decrease for the turbines compared favorably to the 

24.9 percent decline recorded in 2010 and 39.2 percent decline posted in 2009 in turbine 

aircraft shipments by U.S. manufacturers. The business jet segment showed even more 

reason for optimism as shipments fell by only 2.7 percent in CY 2011 versus decreases of 29.2 

percent and 46.2 percent, respectively in CY 2010 and CY 2009. Along with the fall in 

shipments, general aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports fell 2.3 percent in 2011.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers decreased for the 4th consecutive year, falling 1.0

percent, as activity declines in the air taxi and general aviation categories offset increases in air 

carrier and military activity. Although the overall number of flights fell, FAA’s workload did not. As 

the fleet mix changes with increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies,

along with carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, the complexity of activity in the 

airspace continues to grow, increasing controllers’ workload. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

5

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Following an unprecedented fiscal stimulus (i.e., American Recovery and Reinvestment Act or 

ARRA) of over $800 billion that took place in 2009, with over half of it being spent during 2010,

the U.S. economy was left to its own fundamentals in the latter part of 2010 and 2011. The 

economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2010 and 2.1

percent in FY 2011. Given the uncertainty that characterized 2011, the economic growth that 

occurred without a contraction or double-dip recession was reassuring. Towards the end of the 

fiscal year and beginning with FY 2012, there were signs of pent-up demand coming back as 

consumer spending continued to grow, the housing market appeared to be finally turning 

around and the labor market gained traction. Overall, business spending continues growing,

perhaps partly influenced by tax incentives and a cautious environment that has kept 

inventories to a minimum. 

The nation’s unemployment rate has been greatly affected by the recession. When the 

recession began in December 2007 the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. Unemployment 

climbed throughout 2008, intensified during 2009, and reached its pinnacle during the first 

quarter of FY 2010 (10.0 percent). The unemployment rate is gradually falling, from an 

average of 9.7 percent in FY 2010 to 9.2 percent in FY 2011; this rate of decline is relatively 

slow compared to past recessions. 

0.5

2.2

3.3

3.5

3.1

2.2

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3

Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

Fiscal Year 2010 Fiscal Year 2011
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

6

The price of oil, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost (for West Texas 

Intermediate, or WTI), was $96.05 in FY 2011, an increase of 29 percent from FY 2010. This 

is on top of the last year’s increase of 36 percent. The fuel price volatility that characterized 

2008-2009 has diminished considerably but a rising trend appears to be settling in throughout 

the last two years. 

6.0

6.9

8.2

9.3

9.7

10.0 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6

8.9 9.1 9.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3

Percent Unemployed

Date

U.S. Unemployment Rate

83 85

91

97

104

115

123

115 114 117

110 113 110 111

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11

$ Per Barrel of (WTI) Oil

Date

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

7

Finally, consumer prices continued to increase in 2011. Core inflation (excluding gas and food) 

was moderate (2.2 percent); while headline inflation was up a modest 2.6 percent due to an

increase in oil and gasoline prices.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

8

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Based on preliminary figures, according to IHS Global Insight, the U.S. and rest of the world 

economies grew 1.7 and 3.1 percent, respectively, in 2011. The advanced economies (U.S., 

Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) expanded 1.3 percent overall. 

All world regions saw their economies grow, except Japan which was impacted by the

devastation wrought by the March earthquake and tsunami. Data coming out at the year’s end

suggest that the recovery in Europe is continuing to lag that of other world regions.

On a calendar year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada expanded at a faster pace 

(up 2.2 percent) than the U.S. in 2011 (up 1.7 percent). The combined economies of the Asian 

and Far East nations grew 4.2 percent in 2011, down from 6.8 percent a year earlier. This 

region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (down 0.6 percent), and the 

world’s most vibrant economy, China (up 9.3 percent). The combined economies of Europe

rebounded more slowly, with Western Europe up 1.6 percent and the combined economies of 

Central Europe and the former Soviet Union up 4.4 percent. GDP in Latin America (including 

the Caribbean) expanded by 4.0 percent with Brazil up 3.6 percent and Mexico up 3.9 percent. 

3.5 

3.1 

2.7 

1.9 

(0.3)

(3.5)

3.0 

1.7 

4.2 

3.7 

4.7 4.8 

2.0 

(1.9)

4.4 

3.1 

 (4.0)

 (3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. and World Gross Domestic Product

US World

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 14 OCT 2011 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

9

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Commercial aviation continued a slow recovery in 2011 despite rising jet fuel prices and a 

shaky global economy. The U.S. industry posted a net profit in 2011, with a similar outcome

predicted for foreign carriers. After posting net profits of $15.8 billion in 2010, global industry 

net profits for calendar year 2011 are expected to be $6.9 billion.

3

 All global regions are 

projected to see a drop in profits as fuel costs increased by $40 billion worldwide.

World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air

carriers are expected to post another solid performance in CY 2011 as demand for air travel 

continues to rebound from the depressed levels recorded during 2009. Although traffic results 

are not available for full year 2011 at the time of this printing, ICAO predicts that worldwide 

revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) will increase 6.4 percent following an increase of 7.9

percent in 2010.

4

Statistics from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) available for calendar year 2011

show passengers are up 7.1 percent over calendar year 2010. Data for the same period 

shows capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (ASKs), to be up 8.9 percent and 

 3 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2011.

4 ICAO press release dated January 6, 2012.

11.6

7.1

5.2

8.3

-0.4 -1.1

8.1

5.9

13.9

7.3

5.0

7.4

2.6

-1.6

7.9

6.4

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

World Passenger Demand

Passengers RPKs

Source: 2004-10 ICAO; 2011 IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

10

RPKs to be up 8.0 percent. Results for April 2011 show a resurgence of traffic followed by 

airspace closures stemming from volcanic ash clouds that took place in April, 2010.

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported an increase of 3.7 percent in 

international RPKs and a 6.3 percent increase in international ASKs; international passengers 

were up 3.5 percent during the same period.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Annual Percent Change (%)

Month

European Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2011

ASKs RPKs

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

Asia Pacific Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2011

ASKs RPKs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

11

In CY 2011, U.S. and foreign flag carriers transported an estimated 161.8 million passengers 

between the United States and the rest of the world, a 2.8 percent increase from 2010. Yearover-year growth increased in the Transborder, Pacific and Latin markets (up 2.2 percent, 5.7

percent and 5.0 percent, respectively). Passengers decreased in the Atlantic market (down 

0.6 percent) due to repercussions from the debt crisis in Europe, which is slowing the recovery 

of that region’s economy, and from the worldwide economic slowdown.

Worldwide air cargo demand contracted slightly in 2011 following a sharp rebound in 2010.5 

According to IATA, worldwide freight ton kilometers were estimated to decline 0.5 percent in 

calendar year 2011 compared to 2010. Freight ton kilometers (FTKs) of AEA member carriers

were up 2.1 percent in calendar year 2011 whereas FTKs of AAPA member carriers fell 4.8 

percent during the same period.

 5 IATA News Release, January 2012.

49 50 50 53 57 55 56 56

43 44 47 49 50 48 53 56

24 25 26 26 26 24

27 19 28 20 21 22 22 20

22 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic L. America Pacific Transborder
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that world air carriers (including U.S. 

airlines) are expected to register an operating profit of $13.2 billion for 2011. IATA estimates

global airline industry net profits to be $6.9 billion for the same period with all regions expected 

to be in the black. Based on financial data compiled by ICAO and IATA, between 2003 and 

2011 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of $76.9 billion (with seven years out 

of nine posting gains) and net losses of $5.5 billion (with four years out of nine posting gains).6

 6 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2011.

9.6

2.4

6.4

4.9

-3.4

-10.1

12.3

-0.7

7.9

0.4

4.8 4.8

-1.0

-9.8

18.7

-0.5

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Annual Percent Change 

Calendar Year

World Air Cargo Demand

Tonnes RTKs

Source: 2004-10 ICAO; 2011 IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

13

U.S. Travel Demand

By year end of FY 2011, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 16 scheduled 

mainline air carriers that used large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 68 regional carriers 

that used smaller piston, turboprop, and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide 

connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline and regional carriers offer domestic 

and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although 

regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and 

the Caribbean. Twenty-six all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air 

cargo service at the end 2011.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) convergence of 

the network and low cost carrier business models and unit costs; (2) continuing industry 

consolidation and restructuring, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues.

A sign that the business models for the low cost and network carriers groups are converging is 

the narrowing share of capacity flown between these two groups and the fares they charge. 

After losing market share in 2008, partially due to the cessation of operations by two low cost 

carriers during that year,

7 low cost carrier capacity share has been on the rise (up 0.9 points in 

2009, up 0.4 points in 2010, and up 1.6 points in 2011). Since 2000, the share of capacity 

flown by the low cost carrier group has almost doubled, going from a 17.0 percent market 

share in 2000 to over 32.0 percent share in 2011. Another narrowing gap is the average

 7 American Trans Air and Skybus Airlines.

3.3 4.4

15.0

19.9

-1.1

1.9

21.7

13.2

-5.6 -4.1

5.0

14.7

-26.1

-4.6

15.8

6.9

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Billions of Dollars

Calendar Year

World Air Carrier Profit/Loss

Operating Net Source: 2004-10 ICAO; 2011 IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

14

domestic yield (a proxy for airfare) reported by the low cost and network carrier groups. In 

2000, average domestic yield for the low cost carrier group was 12.4 cents versus 14.5 cents 

for the network carrier group. By 2011, they were virtually identical on average; however, this 

does not show the variations in market premiums that each airline may command due to its 

unique market position. 

Industry restructuring and consolidation continued in 2011. Operations at Northwest Airlines 

were folded into Delta Airlines, while operations at Midwest Airlines were folded into Frontier 

Airlines. For the regional carriers, Delta Airlines sold its subsidiaries, Compass and Mesaba, 

to Trans States and Pinnacle, respectively, and Arctic Circle Air merged with ERA Aviation. 

Soon after FY 2011 ended, American Airlines declared bankruptcy at the end of November 2011. 

As a result of industry restructuring and consolidation, far fewer carriers now report traffic to the 

Bureau of Transportation Statistics when compared to 2001. Subsequently, 7.0 percent fewer 

domestic ASMs were flown but almost 3.0 percent more passengers were carried domestically in 

2011 when compared to 2001. This has had clear implications on the size of the aircraft being 

used and the load factors, topics which will be discussed later in this document.

The 7.0 percent reduction in domestic capacity since 2001 has not been shared equally between 

the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. In 2011, the mainline carrier group provided 

16 percent less capacity than it did in 2001 (and carried 12 percent fewer passengers). 

Conversely, capacity flown by the regional group increased 153 percent over the same ten year 

period (with passengers carried up 113 percent). 

The shift in capacity from the mainline carrier group to the regional carrier group emerged from

several factors. One factor was the type of aircraft flown by the regional carriers, which has been 

transformed from one of predominantly turboprop and piston aircraft to that of 50-90 seat regional 

jets. This fleet transformation has permitted the regional carriers to fly longer haul routes that were 

not previously accessible with smaller turboprop aircraft. Another factor leading to the shift in 

capacity was the external operating environment. Air travel demand was reduced by the terror 

attacks of September 11, the record breaking fuel prices of 2008, and the global recession that 

followed. To better match demand to capacity, the mainline carriers contracted out “thin” routes to 

their regional counterparts because they could provide lift at a lower cost. Over the past few years, 

however, this trend has slowed down considerably. 

The most recent trend to take hold is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary

revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. As 

noted earlier, U.S. passenger carriers posted net profits for the second consecutive year in 

2011 with ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome. 

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger

Coming off of a formidable 2010 brought on by the continuing global economic slowdown and 

debt restructuring issues plaguing the financial recovery, U.S. commercial air carriers’ traffic

and capacity results in 2011 showed a modest increase in both. System (the sum of domestic 

plus international) capacity increased 3.4 percent to 993.9 billion ASMs while RPMs increased

3.5 percent to 814.6 billion. During the same period system-wide passengers increased

2.5 percent to 730.7 million; U.S. mainline carrier passenger growth was 3.4 percent while
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

15

regional carrier passengers declined by 0.4 percent to 163.6 million. In the domestic market,

mainline passengers saw an increase of 3.1 percent following a three year consecutive decline

prior to 2011. Mainline passengers in international markets posted strong growth for the 

second year in a row (up 4.7 percent). 

Even though the recession was officially over in June 2009,8 carriers continued to face 

economic uncertainty in 2011 as corporate travel budgets remained strained and double-digit 

unemployment persisted accompanied by uncertainty surrounding debt restructuring and the 

payroll tax break. Despite this, the industry expanded capacity, after three consecutive years 

of capacity reductions that were instituted in the latter part of 2008 to counter skyrocketing fuel 

prices and reduced demand. Counter intuitively, with a slight increase in seats available to the 

travelling public, carriers were still able to raise airfares as demand returned. Combining this 

new found pricing power with ancillary revenues, U.S. carriers finished 2011 with a net profit. 

System load factor and trip length climbed in 2011, as seats per aircraft mile increased. The 

average load factor reached a record-breaking 82.0 points, up 0.1 points from 2010. Trip

length increased by 10.9 miles to 1,114.9 miles. This marks the ninth consecutive annual 

increase in trip length. Seats per aircraft mile increased to 141.0 seats (up 1.3 seats per 

aircraft mile). 

 8 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

3.5 3.2

-3.4

0.9

-2.0

-8.4

-1.5

0.9

7.0

5.3

-0.2

2.7

1.4

-7.3

-0.5

3.4

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System ASMs and Aircraft Operations 

Operations ASMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

16

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity9 was up 2.0 percent in 2011 after a decline of 0.4 percent in 2010. This was 

preceded by the steepest decline (in 2009 of 9.0 percent) ever recorded since deregulation of 

the industry in 1978. Departures were flat for the year after falling 1.8 percent in FY 2010. A 

year-over-year increase in capacity was posted for the first seven months of 2011 with the first 

quarter up 2.9 percent and the second and third quarters up by 2.2 and 1.9 percent, 

respectively. Capacity declined 0.3 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Mainline 

carrier capacity was up 2.3 percent for the year, while regional carrier capacity was up 0.6 

percent. Despite this increase, domestic ASMs were still 7.8 percent below pre-recession 

levels (2007) with departures down 12.1 percent at the end of 2011. 

 9 The 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

10.6

7.4

2.7

3.9

0.8

-7.1

2.2

3.5

7.5

7.0

0.4

3.4

-0.8

-7.2

1.2

2.5

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System RPMs and Enplanements

RPMs Enplanement
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

17

Domestic passenger enplanements grew at a faster rate than ASMs in 2011 up 2.3 percent. 

In the first half of the year, domestic passengers were up 3.2 percent but growth slowed in the 

second half of the year with passengers up just 1.5 percent. On a year-over-year basis, 

mainline carrier enplanements were up 3.1 percent for the year while regional carrier 

enplanements fell 0.2 percent, posting the second decline in three years for this segment of 

the industry.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Oct-11 Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Capacity

Fiscal Year 2011

Departures ASMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

18

Similar to passenger counts, domestic RPMs grew faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs up

3.0 percent in FY 2011. Growth slowed during the year with the first quarter up 5.1 percent, 

the second quarter up 2.6 percent, and the last half of the year up 2.2 percent. For the year, 

mainline carrier RPM growth was 3.3 percent, while regional carrier growth was just 0.6

percent. 

Domestic carrier load factor increased 0.8 points to 82.5 percent, with both the mainline and 

regional carriers groups posting record high loads. Mainline carrier load factor increased 0.9 

points from FY 2010 to 83.6 percent, while regional carrier load factor remained constant at

76.2 percent.

Since FY 2000, total domestic capacity has decreased by 4.5 percent. Mainline carriers have 

reduced their domestic capacity by 13.6 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than 

offsetting the growth of low-cost carriers. Making up some of the shortfall from network carrier 

capacity cuts during this time are the regional carriers. This segment of the industry has

greatly expanded capacity (up 158.4 percent from 2000). During the same period, mainline 

carrier RPMs have increased 1.4 percent, while enplanements have fallen 13.0 percent. In 

comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements have increased 230.8 percent and 

102.4 percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen 

from 94.7 percent in 2000 to 85.7 percent in 2011, with the share of domestic RPMs flown by 

mainline carriers dropping from 95.5 percent to 86.8 percent during the same period. Regional 

carriers now fly one in every four passengers, up from one in eight in 2000.

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Traffic

Fiscal Year 2011

Enplanement RPMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

19

International Passenger Markets

U.S. carrier ASMs were up 6.7 percent and departures were up 3.9 percent in 2011. ASMs 

increased in all three regions with the Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific markets, up 5.6, 5.3 and 10.4

percent, respectively.

502.6 523.1 516.2 533.9 521.6 476.8 473.6 488.6

125.9

146.4 152.2 156.2 159.1

154.0 161.6 161.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Millions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

20

International RPMs were up 4.8 percent and passenger enplanements were up 4.4 percent in 

2011. The Atlantic market posted an increase, with RPMs up 2.8 percent and enplanements 

up 3.2 percent. RPMs and enplanements increased 5.9 and 4.9 percent, respectively, in the 

Latin American market, while RPMs and enplanements increased 7.4 and 4.7 percent, 

respectively, in the Pacific market. 

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Capacity

Fiscal Year 2011

ASMs Departures
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

21

The international load factor dropped 1.4 percentage points overall in 2011 to 80.7 percent. 

Load factor decreased in all markets except Latin America: in the Pacific market load factor 

was down 3.0 points to 81.5 percent; in the North Atlantic market load factor was down 

2.7 points to 80.7 percent; and in the Latin America market the load factor increased by 0.6

points to 79.7 percent.

In 2011, 51.9 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin 

America market. The remaining 48.1 percent of international passengers was split between 

the Atlantic market (31.3 percent) and the Pacific market (16.7 percent).

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in 

the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and 

nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes 

such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 37.3 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2011, up 3.7 percent from 2010. 

Domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) fell by 6.1 percent to 12.0 billion. However, 

international RTMs increased by 9.1 percent to 25.2 billion, more than offsetting the decline in 

domestic RTMs. The strong growth in international RTMs reflects a rebound from the 

recession and the global financial crisis, with international air cargo RTMs now exceeding the 

pre-crisis (FY 2007) levels by 4.1 percent.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Traffic

Fiscal Year 2011

RPMs Enplanements
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

22

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers were 75.1 percent of total RTMs in 2011, with 

passenger carriers flying the rest, or 24.9 percent. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers 

increased 3.0 percent in 2011 from 27.2 billion to 28.0 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger 

carriers were 9.3 billion in 2011, 5.9 percent higher than in 2010.

On August 3, 2007, “Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007” was signed into 

law. Section 1602 of this Act states that air cargo placed on passenger aircraft will receive the 

same level of screening as passenger-checked baggage. The legislation went into effect on 

August 1, 2010, and requires 100 percent inspection of cargo transported on passenger 

aircraft at the piece level. The legislation did not apply to cargo on U.S. bound passenger 

flights from overseas or on cargo-only aircraft. However, following the discovery of a bomb on 

an all-cargo plane bound for the U.S., the Air Cargo Security Act was introduced on November 

16, 2010. The purpose of the Act is to expand the 100 percent cargo screening mandate of 

passenger aircraft to cargo only aircraft. The bill didn’t become a law and TSA is currently 

negotiating screening agreements with 20 countries where approximately 80 percent of U.S. 

bound international cargo originates.

16.3 16.1 15.7 15.8 14.4 11.9 12.8 12.0

20.1 23.1 24.0 24.2 24.6

19.1

23.1 25.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Billions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Cargo Revenue Ton Miles

Domestic RTMs International RTMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

23

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region

International air cargo traffic can be divided into four components consisting of Atlantic, Latin, 

Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ While total international RTMs increased, not all regions 

experienced growth in 2011. Latin cargo fell from 1.9 billion RTMs to 1.8 billion RTMs, a 9.3

percent decline. However, Atlantic RTMs rose 5.4 percent, from 6.9 to 7.2 billion and the 

Pacific region enjoyed even more expansion, a 9.1 percent increase from 8.4 to 9.1 billion. 

The ‘Other International’ category experienced the most growth. RTMs in that ‘region’ 

expanded from 5.9 billion to 7.1 billion, growing by 20.4 percent. 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2011 Financial Results

U.S. commercial air carriers posted a net profit of $1.6 billion during FY 2011 after reporting a 

net profit of $3.4 billion one year earlier.

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) for FY 2011 were up 10.4 percent from FY 2010. 

The increase in revenue underscored the ability of passenger carriers to push through fare 

increases and to offer value-added services that leisure and business passengers were willing to 

buy. The increase in revenues for cargo carriers followed a rebound from the global financial 

crisis that strengthened demand for air cargo services.

During the same period, operating expenses increased 12.3 percent. The increase in operating 

expenses during FY 2011 was driven by a 24.6 percent rise in the price of fuel for the year, as 

0.7

-1.2

5.6

10.2

-2.0

0.8

9.7

7.6

-4.6

-11.7

-0.2

5.9

-18.6

-7.8

3.4

1.6

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Billions of Dollars ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Operating and Net Profit/Loss

Operating Profit/Loss Net Profit/Loss Source: DOT Form 41 & 298C
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

24

well as an increase in variable costs resulting from increased demand for passenger and cargo 

services.

In FY 2011, passenger carriers reported operating income of $5.8 billion and net profits of $540

million, while air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $1.9 billion and a net income of 

$1.1 billion. In the domestic market, passenger carriers generated an operating profit of $3.8

billion but posted a net loss of $152 million. In the international market, this carrier group posted

operating and net profits of $1.9 billion and $0.7 billion, respectively. Cargo carriers posted an 

operating profit of $2.6 billion and a net income of $1.5 billion in domestic markets. In 

international markets, the cargo carriers reported an operating loss of $0.7 billion and net loss of 

$0.5 billion. 

The industry’s financial boost is largely due to a turnaround in the performance of the network 

carriers. After two consecutive years (FY 2008-2009) of net losses totaling $27.3 billion, this 

carrier group has now recorded back to back profitable years in FY 2010-2011. In FY 2011 the 

network carriers posted net profits of $766 million and operating profits of $4.2 billion. For the nine 

reporting low-cost carriers, operating profits totaled $1.1 billion and net income totaled $179 

million for the full year. 

An upswing in leisure and business demand along with ongoing capacity discipline led to a

rebound in mainline carrier passenger yield for the year. Domestic mainline carrier passenger 

yield increased 5.6 percent in 2011.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Revenue per Mile (₵)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Yield

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

25

Of the reporting regional carriers, operating profits totaled $0.5 billion and net losses totaled

$0.5 billion for FY 2011. During the same period, regional domestic yield was unchanged.

10 

Reflecting the changing nature of the industry the network carriers are putting the squeeze on 

their regional partners by negotiating fee-for-departure contracts that shift more of the financial 

risk of contract flying to the regional carriers. Since 2000, regional carrier yield is down 59.8

percent in real terms (compared to a drop of 25.8 percent in mainline carrier yield for the same 

period). The drop in regional carrier yield can be attributed to longer trip lengths (due to a 

growing number of larger and faster regional jet aircraft entering the fleet) and rising load

factors. All other things being equal, an increase in either the trip length or the load factor 

results in drop in yield since fee-for-departure revenues are spread over a broader base of 

RPMs.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2011 Aircraft Fleets

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers 

are retiring older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing 

them with more technologically advanced A320 and 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional 

carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 

50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is 

estimated at 7,185 for 2011, a decrease of 29 aircraft from 2010. This includes 3,739 mainline 

air carrier passenger aircraft (over 90 seats), 879 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and

2,567 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops, and pistons). 

 10 Passenger revenues include payments received by regionals from mainline partners for contractual flying.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

26

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet shrunk by 12 aircraft in 2011, following a 41 unit 

increase in 2010. The decrease was driven by a 61 unit decrease by the remaining network 

carriers as they continued to prune their fleets in the face of uncertain economic growth and 

rising fuel prices. With the decline of the fleet in 2011, the mainline carrier fleet now stands at 

16.7 percent below (749 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. The regional carrier fleet was also 

reduced in 2011, falling by 46 units, and now stands at its lowest level since 2003. Regional 

carriers continue to retire 50 seat and smaller regional jets as the operating economics of 

these aircraft get worse as fuel prices continue to climb.

4,024

3,906

3,898

3,983

3,795

3,710

3,751

3,739

2,747

2,779

2,732

2,780

2,682

2,653

2,613

2,567

993

1,001

1,012

974

960

841

850

879

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

Number of Aircraft

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Aircraft Fleet

Cargo Regionals Mainline AC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

27

GENERAL AVIATION

While the signs of a slow economic recovery have been observed, difficulties in the general 

aviation industry continued in 2011. Based on figures released by the General Aviation 

Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 

an estimated 1,215 aircraft in CY 2011, 8.9 percent fewer than CY 2010. This translates into a 

fourth consecutive year of decline in shipments, although at a slower rate. Overall piston 

deliveries declined 10.5 percent, with single-engine deliveries down 9.1 percent and the much 

smaller multi-engine category down 23.9 percent. In the turbine categories, turbojet deliveries 

were only slightly lower than that of last year, by 2.7 percent, while turboprops were down an 

estimated 13.8 percent. U.S. billings in CY 2011 are estimated to have totaled $8.4 billion, up 

6.7 percent compared with 2010.

General aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities posted mixed results in 2011. Operations at 

combined FAA and contract towers declined 2.3 percent in 2011, continuing a decade long 

trend. General aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 2.6 

percent, while the number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers was 

essentially flat, up a scant 0.1 percent.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and

Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates 

are applied. This survey has been conducted annually since 1977. Beginning with the CY 

2004 Survey there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. These 

improvements included conducting 100 percent samples for turboprops and turbojets, all 

2,355 

2,857 

3,147 3,279 

3,079 

1,585 

1,334 1,215 

6.8

8.7

10.4

11.9

13.3

9.1

7.9 8.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Shipments

Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings 

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

28

rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand under Part 135. In addition, 

the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (19 categories), FAA region (9 

categories), and whether the aircraft was owned by an entity certified to fly Part 135 operations 

(2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow 

owners/operators of multiple aircraft to report aggregated data for their entire fleet on a single 

form. In 2005 an additional aircraft category (light sport aircraft) was added. The result of 

these changes was the sample size nearly doubled. Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in 

both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22.8 percent, total rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) 

and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in many categories occurred. The 

results of the 2010 Survey, the latest one available, are consistent with the results of past 

surveys since 2004. This reinforces our belief that methodological improvements have 

resulted in superior estimates relative to those in the past and these are used as the basis for 

our forecast.

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization along with 

General Aircraft Manufacturer’s Association (GAMA) aircraft shipment statistics, the active 

general aviation fleet is estimated to have decreased 0.4 percent in 2011 to 222,520. With the 

decrease in the active fleet, general aviation flight hours are estimated to have decreased 1.6

percent in 2011 to 24.4 million. 

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Student 

pilot numbers had been in decline for many years but in 2010 the FAA issued a rule that 

increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 

36 months to 60 months. As a result, according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike 

Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots at the end of 2010 increased by 

64.8 percent, or approximately 47,000 pilots, compared to calendar year end 2009. While the 

impact of the new rule on the long term trend in student pilots has yet to be fully determined, 

by the end of 2011, the number of student pilots decreased by 0.4 percent from its 2010 level 

to 118,657. The average age of a U.S. pilot in 2011 was 44.4 years old.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

29

FAA WORKLOAD

In 2011, FAA facilities experienced their fourth year of decline in activity. Commercial air traffic 

activity increased for the first time since 2007 as increases in air carrier activity offset declines 

in air taxi activity. Growth was higher during the first half of the year as carriers increased

capacity in response to strengthening demand. The decline in noncommercial activity is 

attributed to a lackluster economy and rising fuel prices.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports was 50.7 million operations in 2011, 

down 1.0 percent from 2010 and 26.1 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. 

Commercial activity (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract 

towers rose by 0.3 percent in 2011. Air carrier operations were up 1.6 percent while 

commuter/air taxi operations declined 1.4 percent. Commercial operations in 2011 were 15.1

percent lower than their peak in 2005. 

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract 

towers fell by 2.0 percent in 2011, the smallest decrease in four years. General aviation activity 

(26.0 million) was down 2.3 percent while military activity (2.6 million) was up 0.9 percent. Since 

1999, general aviation activity has increased only once (2007). 

At the end of 2011, non-commercial aircraft activity was 33.1 percent below the activity in 2000.

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the “Core 30” airports. These airports 

represent the top 30 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except Memphis which 

37.9 37.0

35.8 35.9

34.1

30.6

29.2 28.6

25.2 26.1 25.2 25.3 24.8

22.4 22.1 22.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Activity 

at Combined FAA and Contract Towers 

Non Commercial Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

30

is a major freight hub) and account for about 70 percent of commercial passengers. Commercial 

activity at the Core 30 airports peaked in 2005, but subsequent industry restructuring has 

resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since then. In 2011, 

commercial activity at the Core 30 airports rose by 1.5 percent from the previous year but was 

8.3 percent below 2005 activity levels. Of the Core 30 airports, 23 recorded increases in activity 

from 2010 with the largest increases occurring at Miami (up 6.3 percent) and Reagan National in 

Washington, DC (up 6.1 percent). The largest decreases in activity occurred at Memphis (down

4.9 percent), and Salt Lake City (down 3.9 percent). Only six of the Core 30 airports exceeded 

2005 peak activity levels during fiscal year 2011, up from four airports in both 2009 and 2010. 

 

Since 2005 there has been a pronounced shift in demand which is reflected in the relative 

growth of commercial operations across the Core 30 airports. Commercial operations at San 

Francisco (up 16.2 percent), New York-Kennedy (up 14.9 percent), and Denver (up 14.9

percent) have increased the most relative to their 2005 activity levels. Commercial operations 

at Dulles (down 37.4 percent), and Tampa (down 26.0 percent) show the largest declines from 

2005 levels. These activity level shifts reflect the impact of airline industry restructuring. The 

demise of Indy Air and United’s continuing restructuring of its network resulted in a dramatic 

reduction of operations at Dulles, while the bankruptcy of Delta and its subsequent merger with 

Northwest along with Continental’s continuing restructuring of its network has led to a dramatic 

shrinking of operations in Tampa.

In 2011, total activity at FAA en-route centers (41.2 million) increased 1.8 percent from the 

previous year, the fastest growth since 2005. Commercial activity was up sharply (4.8 percent)

with air carrier operations up 4.9 percent and commuter/air taxi operations up 4.5 percent. Noncommercial activity was down 7.8 percent for the year as general aviation activity was flat (up

only 0.1 percent) while military activity decreased 25.3 percent. In 2011, air carrier operations 

were 6.2 percent below their 2000 activity levels and air taxi/commuter operations were 11.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SFO

JFK

DEN

CLT

MIA

DCA

IAH

ATL

BWI

EWR

ORD

LGA

SEA

LAX

MCO

LAS

BOS

DFW

PHX

FLL

PHL

MDW

DTW

SAN

MEM

MSP

HNL

SLCTPA

IAD

Percent of FY 2005 Ops

Airport

Only Six of Core 30 Airports 

are above 2005 Activity Levels

FY 2011 VS. FY 2005 Commercial Activity
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

31

percent above activity levels for 2000. Operations for the general aviation and military user 

groups were 25.0 and 46.9 percent below their 2000 activity levels, respectively.

33.8

35.1

33.8 34.7 34.1

31.0 31.0

32.4

12.4 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.3

9.3 9.5 8.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Handled at 

FAA En Route Centers

Commercial Non-Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

32

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS 2012 – 2032

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the 

aviation industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the 

process is filled with uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Once again, the U.S. aviation 

industry has shown that the demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent

downward spiral caused by the Great Recession. With the start of 2011, lingering questions

remain. Are the U.S. and global economies on firm ground? Is it plausible that evolving structural 

changes will revamp the industry from one of boom-to-bust to one of sustainable profits? Will 

industry consolidation continue?

After 15 consecutive months11 of modest increases in year-over-year domestic capacity, carriers 

reversed course and posted capacity declines in each of the last two months of 2011. The 

restraint in capacity coupled with strengthening demand led to record high load factors and

recovery in yield. Yield is expected to show continued strength in 2012 as the capacity reductions 

at the end of FY 2011 accelerate into FY 2012.

Given the current instability in the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and 

strength of a recovery in aviation demand. Nevertheless, the FAA has developed a set of 

assumptions and forecasts consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently 

taking place within the aviation industry. The FAA is confident that these forecasts accurately 

predict future aviation demand; however, due to the large uncertainty of the operating 

environment, the variance around the forecasts is wider than it was in prior years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that 

explain and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the 

commercial aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be 

sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not 

assume further contractions of the industry through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing 

the commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published by 

Innovata. To generate the short-term forecast (i.e., two years out) current monthly trends are used 

in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly 

capacity and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar 

years 2012-13. The medium to long-term forecasts (2014-2032) are based on the results of 

econometric models. 

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts conducted at a 

workshop co-hosted by FAA and the Transportation Research Board (TRB) in July 2011 along 

 11 May 2010 through July 2011.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

33

with the results of the 2010 General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. The assumptions have 

been updated by FAA analysts to reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as 

further information from industry experts. 

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, 

who are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their 

comments and/or suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

34

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by IHS 

Global Insight, Inc. to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world 

and individual country economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the 

demand for international aviation services. Annual historical data and economic forecasts are 

presented in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government 

fiscal year (October through September) basis, whereas international forecasts are presented 

on a calendar year basis.

Data suggest that unemployment hit its highest point in the first quarter of FY 2010 (10.0 

percent) and will likely remain above 9.0 percent through 2012. IHS Global Insight expects the 

recovery to be modest by historical standards with the economy plagued by continued levels of 

high private and public debt, a weak housing market, and tight credit. How these issues are 

resolved will determine the future path of the recovery. On the bright side, prior fears of a

double-dip recession are unlikely to be realized.

The boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus and inventory buildup is fading, leaving the 

economy to depend on underlying strength in private demand. On a quarter-by-quarter basis 

U.S. economic growth is projected to range between 1.4 to 3.0 percent for the next two years. 

Consumer spending is by far the largest component of the U.S. economy. Burdened by high 

household debt and rising unemployment, consumer spending increased only 2.0 percent in 

2011. The recovery in consumer spending is projected to continue with increases of 1.9

1.2

1.5

2.4 2.4

1.8 1.8

1.4

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3

Annual Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

by Quarter

Source: IHS Global Insight Fiscal Year 2012 Fiscal Year 2013
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

35

percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent in 2013 as households continue their struggle to reduce debt 

burdens and rebuild retirement assets.

In the medium term, (the four year period between 2013 and 2017), U.S. economic growth is 

projected to average 3.1 percent per year with rates ranging between 2.1 and 3.5 percent. 

Consumption growth remains muted during the same period (up an average of 2.1 percent). 

For the balance of the forecast period, U.S. real GDP growth slows to around 2.5 percent 

annually while consumption growth increases to 2.3 percent annually. The long-term stability 

of U.S. economic growth depends on sustained growth in the workforce and capital stock 

along with improved productivity and competitiveness. 

After the price of oil increased by 29 percent in 2011, IHS Global Insight projects the price, as 

measured by the Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to be $100 per barrel in 2012 (up 6.0 percent from 

2011). Oil prices are now forecast to rise to over $115 per barrel by 2020 and then gradually 

increase to over $118 per barrel by 2025. For the remainder of the forecast period, oil prices 

are projected to grow faster than inflation, reaching $138 per barrel by 2032. 

2.1 2.1

1.6

2.1

3.0

3.5

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

36

Spurred by continued economic growth, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI), rose 2.6 

percent in FY 2011 and is expected to rise 1.9 percent and 1.8 percent in 2012 and 2013, 

respectively. After 2012, consumer price inflation is projected to grow between 1.8 and 2.2

percent per year for the balance of the forecast. 

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast 

uses high and low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. The high and low 

economic growth cases are based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios from IHS Global 

Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released third quarter 2011). The high economic growth case 

incorporates higher population growth, capital spending, and productivity relative to the base 

case. Due to the higher productivity, inflation is lower than in the base case. Real GDP 

growth in the high case averages 3.0 percent annually compared to 2.6 percent in the base 

case. The low economic growth case incorporates lower population growth, capital spending, 

and productivity than does the base case. By contrast, in the low economic case, inflation is 

higher than in the base case due to lower productivity growth. Real GDP growth in the low 

case averages 2.0 percent annually over the forecast horizon. Further details about the high 

and low scenarios can be found in Appendix A.

World Economy

After weathering the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression and a 

deepening recession in Europe, worldwide economic activity is estimated by IHS Global Insight 

to have expanded by 2.7 percent in 2011. The advanced economies (U.S., Canada, Europe, 

and Japan) posted growth in output ranging from a low of -0.6 percent to a high of 2.2 percent. 

26.9

6.0 6.8

2.9

1.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

37

The emerging market economies grew 6.2 percent, 1.2 points lower than in 2010 with the 

economy of China up 9.3 percent, India up 7.5 percent, Brazil up 3.6 percent, and Russia up 

4.1 percent. In 2012, economic growth is projected to slow (up 2.6 percent) as weak 

household finances, sluggish employment growth, and constrained banking sectors of the 

advanced economies prevent global aggregate demand from growing fast enough to offset

weakness from inventory accumulation, the recession in Europe, and the decline of stimulus 

spending. Beyond 2012 the balance of the forecast period world real GDP is projected to

increase an average of 3.3 percent per year. 

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions will continue to have the world’s highest 

economic growth rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at 

annual rates of 4.5 and 4.2 percent a year, respectively, over the forecast period (2012-2032). 

China, with a population of approximately 1.3 billion, is forecast to grow 6.5 percent a year, 

becoming the world’s second largest economy by 2013 (surpassing Japan). India, with a 

population of approximately 1.2 billion, is projected to see its GDP more than quadruple in size, 

growing at an average rate of 7.3 percent a year during the forecast period. In contrast, Japan 

grows at just 0.7 percent a year over the forecast horizon as structural impediments, the effects of 

the 2011 earthquakes and tsunami, and an aging population continues to limit growth. The GDP 

of the Canadian, Western European, and Middle Eastern/North Africa regions are anticipated 

to rise at more moderate rates of 2.4, 1.7, and 3.8 percent a year, respectively, over the 

forecast period.

2.5

2.2

1.6

2.4

5.6

4.0

3.4

4.2

6.8

4.2

5.0

4.5

3.2

2.2

1.9

2.4

4.0

2.7 2.6

3.3

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

 8.0

2010 2011 2012 2012-2032

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

by World Region

Total Europe/Africa/ME Latin America & Caribbean Asia-Pacific Canada World

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

38

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional 

carriers) are presented in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data 

and forecasts. 

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are displayed in 

Tables 10 through 18, 21, and 23. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and 

forecasts. 

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 24 through 27. These tables 

provide year-to-year historical and forecast data.

Tables 19 and 20 provide year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 22

provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 28 through 31. These tables provide year-toyear historical data and forecasts.

Tables 32 through 34 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. 

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to remain flat in 2012. In the domestic market, mainline carrier 

capacity expanded slightly (2.2 percent) in 2011 but now is projected to contract by 0.8 percent 

while capacity for the regional carriers is projected to also decline in FY 2012 (down 0.5 

percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast to increase in all markets -- Atlantic, 

Latin, and Pacific -- resulting in overall international capacity growth of 2.0 percent. 

Passenger demand shows very little growth in 2012 with system RPMs forecast to grow 0.5 

percent and all of this increase projected to come from international markets. An upturn is 

projected in 2013 with system RPMs and passengers increasing 2.6 and 1.9 percent, 

respectively, on a capacity increase of 2.1 percent. For the overall forecast period, system 

capacity is projected to increase an average of 3.1 percent a year. Supported by a growing 

U.S. economy, with real yields increasing in the near term (2012-2013), and then falling, 

system RPMs are projected to increase 3.2 percent a year, with regional carriers (up 3.5

percent a year) growing faster than mainline carriers (up 3.2 percent a year). System 

passengers are projected to increase an average of 2.5 percent a year, with regional carriers 

growing at slightly higher rate (up 2.5 percent a year) than their mainline counterparts (up 2.5

percent). By 2032, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.9 trillion ASMs and 

transport 1.23 billion enplaned passengers a total of 1.57 trillion passenger miles.

Planes will remain crowded, with load factors projected to grow moderately during the early 

years of the forecast period then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.4 percent in 2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

39

(up 1.1 points compared to the beginning of the forecast period in 2012). Passenger trip 

length is forecast to increase by more than 157 miles over the forecast period to 1,276 miles in 

2032 (up 8 miles annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in 

the relatively longer international and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

Domestic Markets

After declining for three consecutive years, domestic capacity expanded in FY 2011 but is

projected to fall again in 2012 (down 0.8 percent). The contraction will be similar for both 

mainline and regional carriers; mainline carrier capacity is forecast to decline 0.8 percent in FY 

2012 while that of regional carriers is expected to fall by 0.5 percent. Domestic commercial 

carrier capacity picks up in 2013 (up 1.5 percent) with mainline carriers growing faster than 

regional carriers, 1.6 percent versus 0.8 percent. For the entire forecast period (2012-2032), 

overall domestic capacity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent, 

slightly faster than economic growth. Mainline carriers are projected to grow at an annual rate 

of 2.5 percent while regional carriers are projected to grow a percentage point higher. 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032

Millions of Passengers

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System Enplanements

Regionals Mainline
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

40

The slow pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. will dampen RPM growth during 2012, the 

first year of the forecast (down 0.2 percent). Traffic growth is projected to be sluggish in the 

first half of the year as fiscal uncertainty continues to surround the U.S. economy. Mainline 

carrier RPMs are projected to decline by 0.4 percent during 2012, while regional carrier RPMs

are projected to increase by 1.1 percent. By 2013, traffic growth improves with RPMs up 2.1 

percent as the economic recovery gains some footing. Driven by economic growth and falling 

real yield, domestic RPMs grow 2.8 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast (2013-

2032). For the overall forecast period (2012-2032), domestic RPMs are projected to grow an 

average of 2.8 percent a year. Mainline carriers are projected to grow more slowly than the 

regional carriers throughout the forecast period (averaging 2.7 percent versus 3.6 percent a 

year, respectively). 

2.3

-0.8

2.5

0.6

-0.5

3.5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic ASMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

41

Enplanements are forecast to decline slightly (down 0.1 percent) in 2012 following a 2.3

percent increase in 2011. Similar to RPMs, passenger volume is expected to pick up in 2013

(up 1.7 percent) in response to a slowly growing economy and then grow at an average rate of 

2.4 percent per year for the period 2013-2032. Over the entire forecast period, domestic 

enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent with mainline 

carriers growing more slowly than regional carriers (2.3 versus 2.6 percent a year, 

respectively). 

Reduced capacity combined with a modest recovery in passenger demand provided pricing 

power for the carriers during 2011, with nominal yield increasing 4.6 percent (up 2.0 percent in 

real terms). In spite of slow demand, shrinking capacity will further lift fares higher in 2012, for

an increase in nominal yield of 3.1 percent (1.3 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast 

period, nominal yield is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.2 percent a year, while in 

real terms it is projected to decline at an average rate of 0.8 percent a year. The decline in 

real yield over the forecast period assumes technological improvements, competition between 

carriers, and the convergence of cost structures between network carriers and their low-cost 

counterparts. The convergence in cost structures between the carrier groups arises from 

gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel inefficient aircraft and hold the line on labor 

costs while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work forces, and unionization. 

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow 

more slowly than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.8 percent per year for 

departures versus 2.8 percent for RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three

operational measures: aircraft size, load factor, and trip length.

3.4

-0.4

2.7

0.6

1.1

3.6

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic RPMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

42

Aircraft size increased on an individual basis for both the mainline and regional carrier groups

in 2011, resulting in a 0.8 seat increase in overall domestic average aircraft size to 122.6 

seats. Mainline carrier aircraft size increased 0.4 seats with the grounding of older, fuel 

inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 737-300/400/500). Regional aircraft size increased by 0.3

seats with the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft entered the fleet. 

Domestic seats per aircraft are forecast to increase in 2012 (up 0.2 seats). Over the balance 

of the forecast (2013-2032), domestic seats per aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 

126.0 seats by 2032, an average of 0.1 seats per year. 

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier 

fleet plans, publicly known aircraft order books, and the FAA’s expectations of the changing 

domestic competitive landscape. In the near-term (through 2013), the forecast incorporates 

several assumptions: 1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) the 

retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 3) the shifting of widebody and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 4) growing use of 70-90 

seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their older narrow-body aircraft (A320’s/B757-

200/300) larger narrow-body aircraft in their domestic route networks with next generation, 

narrow-body aircraft like the A320 Neo and the 737 Max. The use of smaller aircraft, like the

100-seat Embraer 190, to supplement carrier route structures will be limited. The use of the 

next generation, narrow-body aircraft will allow mainline carriers to better serve their customers 

by more closely matching supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of 

passengers), and improve profitability through lower operating costs.

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2011 by 0.4 seats to 152.3 seats, and is 

projected to increase by 0.1 seats in 2012. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is 

projected to remain unchanged in 2013 and then gradually increase for the balance of the 

forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the mainline group will increase by only 1.6 seats

between 2011 and 2032, going from 152.3 to 153.9.

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a much faster pace than 

that of the mainline carriers. The faster growth in aircraft size for regional carriers is stimulated 

by the wave of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as reductions 

in the 50-seat and under jet fleet. Regional carriers are better equipped to support operations 

of their mainline partners by providing capacity that complements market demand. The larger

share of 70 to 90-seat regional jets in the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet and small 

turboprop retirements over the next few years increases the average seating capacity of the 

regional fleet from 56.4 seats in 2011 to 56.9 seats by 2012. Over the course of the forecast, 

seats per aircraft for the regional carriers increases an average of 0.5 seats per year to 66.4

seats in 2032. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the size and 

aircraft types operated by the mainline and regional carriers.

 

The commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 0.8 points during FY 2011 to an all-time 

high of 82.5 percent, with record load factors posted by the mainline and regional carrier 

groups. The mainline carrier group posted a load factor of 83.6 percent, up 0.9 percentage 

points from 2010. The load factor for the regional carriers remained flat at 76.2 percent. In 

2012, the domestic load factor is forecast to increase 0.5 points to 83.0 percent as mainline 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

43

carriers increase by 0.4 percentage point and regional carriers further boost their load factor by 

1.2 points. Thereafter, the commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to

84.8 percent by 2032.

In 2011 the average domestic passenger trip length increased by 6 miles to 881 miles in total, 

after increasing by 5.3 miles in 2010. Passenger trip length is forecast to decline by 1.3 miles

in 2012 and then increase by 3.4 miles in 2013 as carriers continue to restructure their 

networks and realign capacity. After 2013, trip length is projected to remain stable for a 

number of years before steadily increasing from 2018 onwards, reaching 951.6 miles by 2032. 

The increase in trip length reflects longer trips flown by the mainline and regional carrier group. 

Mainline carrier trip length increases as thinner, shorter haul markets are relinquished to 

regional partners and replaced with longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases

as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or reduced as more of the larger 70 and 90-

seat regional jets penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously accessible with only

mainline equipment. 

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of 

connecting versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. 

airline industry restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities 

and airport activity levels can vary significantly.

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) 

passengers over time to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an 

indicator of the tendency of the average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The 

closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart 

below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry varied within a narrow band 

between 1995 and 2002. After 2002, the ratio trailed downward to its lowest level (1.32 

enplanements for every O&D passenger) by 2008. The decline in the ratio during this six year 

period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the network carriers and a rising passenger 

share for the low-cost carriers. A slight uptick in the ratio started again in 2009 (1.34 

enplanements for every O&D passenger) and continued into 2011 (1.35 enplanements for 

every O&D passenger); this highlights the retrenchment by carriers as fuel costs skyrocketed 

and demand for air travel plummeted. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of 

domestic traffic connectivity and these trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger 

enplanement totals.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

44

International Markets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

The FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand12 for travel between the 

United States and three world travel areas: Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico and the 

Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific, as well as for U.S.–Canadian transborder traffic. These 

forecasts are based on historical passenger statistics provided by the United States 

Immigration and Naturalization Services (INS) and Transport Canada, and on regional world 

historical data and economic projections from Global Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 

161.8 million in CY 2011, 2.8 percent higher than in 2010. Passenger demand remains 

consistent in 2012 (up 2.6 percent) and accelerates in 2013 (up 4.0 percent) as the world 

economic recovery solidifies. For the balance of the forecast period, stable worldwide 

economic growth leads international passengers to grow at an average rate of 4.1 percent a 

year, totaling 376.1 million in 2032. 

In the Latin America region, sustained economic growth drives passenger growth to an 

average of 4.7 percent a year over the entire forecast period (2011-2032). The highest growth 

is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 6.2 percent) while the largest market in the 

region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.9 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth are 

 12 The sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers.

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

1.36

1.37

1.38

1.39

Ratio

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Enplanements per 

Origin-Destination Passenger

Source: DOT T100 and O&D Survey
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

45

projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 0.2 and 2.6

percent a year, respectively). 

Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific market boost passenger demand an average of 4.1

percent per year. India, Taiwan and China (passenger growth of 6.3, 5.0 and 6.9 percent a 

year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the region. Growth in the 

Japan market (the largest and most established in the region) is projected to be well below the 

regional average at 2.4 percent a year.

In the mature Atlantic market, the Open Skies agreement between the European Union and 

the United States along with competition between global airline alliances helps fuel passenger 

growth of 3.8 percent a year over the forecast period. Over the 21-year forecast horizon, 

average annual passenger growth in the top four Atlantic markets (Ireland, Netherlands, 

Germany, and the United Kingdom) is 5.1, 4.1, 3.7, and 3.6 percent, respectively.

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic 

U.S. market (2.3 percent), averaging 3.0 percent a year over the forecast period.

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

International U.S. commercial air carrier capacity grew substantially in 2011, up 6.7 percent

from 2010. The Pacific and Atlantic markets both made strong recoveries in 2011 (up 10.4

and 5.6 percent, respectively) whereas Latin America’s capacity was slightly sluggish at 5.3

percent. In 2012, moderate demand and increasing competition between global alliances is 

expected to boost capacity by 2.0 percent (up 2.5, 0.8 and 3.6 percent, respectively in the 

Pacific, Atlantic, and Latin markets). Capacity is projected to grow an additional 3.5 percent in 

3.8 

4.7 

2.6 

4.1 

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

Atlantic Latin America Asia/Pacific Canada Transborder

Annual Percent Change

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Passengers to/from U.S.

Calendar Years 2011-2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

46

2013, fueled by stronger economic growth projected for all world regions, and is projected to

average 4.4 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate growth over the 

forecast period reflects favorable U.S. and world economic activity as it recovers from the 

global contraction.

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs and enplanements increased 4.8 percent and 

4.4 percent, respectively, in 2011. The strong growth in capacity relative to RPMs and 

passengers highlights a significant change from last year when carriers actively restrained

capacity as demand resumed. An increase in RPMs for the Latin market (up 5.9 percent) and 

Pacific market (up 7.4 percent) helped offset a more modest increase in the Atlantic market (up

2.8 percent). In 2012, U.S. carrier international RPMs are expected to increase only 

2.2 percent while being led by growth in the Latin American market (up 4.7 percent) and 

followed by growth in the Pacific (up 1.6 percent) and the Atlantic market (up 1.0 percent). For 

the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase an average of 4.4 percent a year with the fastest 

growth showing in the Latin region (5.0 percent). 

International enplanement growth for 2012 shows very flat demand (1.9 percent); however, 

enplanements are projected rebound at 3.0 percent in 2013. Over the balance of the forecast 

period (2014-2032), enplanements are forecast to increase an average of 4.3 percent a year 

with the fastest growth in Latin and Pacific markets (up 4.7 and 4.2 percent a year, 

respectively).

5.6

0.8

4.1

5.3

3.6

5.0

10.4

2.5

3.6

6.7

2.0

4.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2011 2012 2011-32

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International ASMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

47

The growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2011-2032 (4.1 percent a 

year) compares favorably to the growth in overall international passengers (also 4.1 percent a 

year, including the U.S.-Canada transborder market). Forecasts of international demand 

assume U.S. and foreign flag carriers will benefit from improving economic activity in both the 

United States and world markets. 

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 80.7 percent in 2011, a decrease of 

1.7 percent from 2010. Load factor is expected to remain flat in 2012 as stronger capacity 

growth relative to traffic growth in the Atlantic market is offset by stronger traffic growth relative 

to capacity growth in the Pacific and Latin markets. International load factor is projected to 

increase 0.2 points in 2013 as traffic growth exceeds capacity growth in all three world 

markets. Load factor rises quite slowly through the remainder of the forecast to be 81.2

percent in 2032.

International passenger real yields for U.S. mainline carriers were up 7.2 percent in 2011 as 

the rebound in passenger demand from the global recession outpaced capacity growth. The 

largest increase was in the Latin America market (up 11.4 percent), followed by the Pacific (up

9.8 percent) and the Atlantic market (up 3.3 percent). Buoyed by growing passenger demand, 

international real yields are projected to increase by 3.9 and 1.3 percent in 2012 and 2013, 

respectively. For the remainder of the forecast period, real yield decreases an average of 1.0

percent a year. In nominal terms, international yields are forecast to increase 5.9 percent in 

2012, and 3.1 percent in 2013 and then grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent over the

remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive pressures and 

technological improvements will hold the line on fare increases.

2.8 

1.0 

4.1 

6.2 

4.2 

5.0 

7.4 

2.2 

3.6 

4.9 

2.2 

4.3 

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

 8.0

2011 2012 2011-32

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International RPMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

48

Commercial Air Carriers – Air Cargo

During 2009, world industrial production fell 9.0 percent, producing the worst decline in freight 

transport in 80 years.13 Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that 

affect air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. 

Significant structural changes have occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo 

security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic express market, a shift from 

air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal 

Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., faxes, e-mail). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the 

cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second,

most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity 

will be tied to economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The 

distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis 

of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

Total RTMs grew by 3.7 percent in 2011 and are forecast to grow again in 2012 by 4.5 percent. 

Driven by steady economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual 

rate of 4.9 percent for the balance of the forecast period. 

Domestic cargo RTMs contracted by 6.1 percent in 2011 and are forecast to decline by 2.7 

percent in 2012. Between 2012 and 2032, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 1.8 percent. 

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. 

Thus, this segment’s growth will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic 

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (e.g. e-mail). 

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 70.0 percent 

in 2000 to 87.6 percent in 2011. This is because of the shrinkage of the domestic freight/express 

business for passenger carriers as they have responded to the substantial shocks to the aviation 

system during this time. Shrinking networks, elimination of unprofitable flying, and consolidation 

have reduced opportunities for growth in their freight/express business. The all-cargo share is 

forecast to grow to 89.7 percent by 2032 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and 

security considerations. 

 13 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2010-2011, released November 2010.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

49

International cargo RTMs rose 9.1 percent in 2011 reflecting a continuing recovery from the 

global economic downturn of 2009. They are projected to grow 8.0 percent in 2012 as trade 

continues to expand. For the balance of the forecast period, international cargo RTMs are 

forecast to increase an average of 5.7 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent 

in 2000 to 69.2 percent in 2011. Beyond 2011, the all-cargo share of RTMs flown is forecast to 

increase modestly to 75.5 percent by 2032. 

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,185 in 2011 to 9,853 in 2032, an 

average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent or 127 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is 

projected to decrease by 97 aircraft in 2012 after shrinking by 29 aircraft in 2011 as the slow 

recovery in demand and rising fuel prices prompted carriers to prune their fleets. Since 2007, 

the U.S. commercial airline fleet has contracted by 552 aircraft. In comparison, the U.S. 

commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in 

aviation.

-6.1

-2.7

1.8

9.1

8.0

5.9

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

RTMs

Domestic International
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

50

The number of passenger jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet fell by 12 aircraft in 2011 and is 

expected to fall another 87 aircraft in 2012 as network carriers continue to remove older, less 

fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. After 2012, the mainline air carrier passenger fleet 

increases an average of 97 aircraft a year over the remaining years of the forecast period, 

totaling 5,528 aircraft in 2032. The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and U.S. 

Airways) is projected to grow by 57 aircraft annually over the period 2011-2032; the wide-body 

fleet grows by 28 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350’s enter the fleet. 

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 19 aircraft in 2012 as increases 

in larger regional jets are more than offset by reductions in 50 seat and smaller regional jets

and turboprops. After 2012, the regional carrier fleet is expected to increase by an average of

23 aircraft (0.8 percent) over the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 2,980 aircraft 

in 2032. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is projected to 

grow from 1,707 in 2011 to 2,416 in 2032, an average annual increase of 1.7 percent. All of 

the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 to 90-seat aircraft. 

During the forecast period, all regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, 

reflecting the relaxation of scope clauses. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to shrink from 

860 units in 2011 to 564 in 2032. Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to account for just 

18.9 percent of the regional carrier passenger fleet in 2032, down from a 33.5 percent share in

2011. 

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 15 aircraft over the next two years (from 879

to 894 aircraft in 2013), and total 1,345 aircraft in 2032. The narrow-body jet fleet is projected 

to increase by 6 aircraft a year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are 

converted to cargo service. The wide-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 16 aircraft 

yearly. 

-0.3

-2.3

2.1

-1.8

-3.1

0.9

3.4

1.0

2.1

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

Calendar Years 2011-2032

Mainline AC Regionals Cargo
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

51

General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine 

piston, turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, light sport, experimental 

and “other” (which consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles). The FAA forecasts “active 

aircraft,”14 not total aircraft. The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization 

from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon 

which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with the 2004 GA Survey, there were 

significant improvements to the survey methodology. Coinciding with the changed survey 

methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in the number of aircraft 

and hours flown. The results of the 2010 GA Survey are consistent with the results of surveys 

conducted since 2004, reinforcing our belief that the methodological improvements have 

resulted in superior estimates relative to those of the past. Thus, they are used as the basis 

for our forecast. Because results from the GA Survey are not published until the following year, 

the 2010 statistics are the latest available. Figures for 2011 are estimated based on other 

activity indicators. Activity forecasts begin in 2012 and continue through 2032.

After growing rapidly for most of the past decade, and having slowed over the past few years, 

the most recent shipment activity indicates cautiously optimistic results that the hard impact of 

the recession on the business jet market may have come to an end and demand for business 

jet aircraft is beginning to recover. The forecast calls for robust growth in the long term outlook, 

driven by higher corporate profits and the growth of worldwide GDP. Additionally, continued 

concerns about safety, security, and flight delays keep business aviation attractive relative to 

commercial air travel. As the industry experts report a significant portion of piston aircraft hours 

are also used for business purposes, we predict business usage of general aviation aircraft will 

expand at a faster pace than that for personal and recreational use. 

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 

0.6 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 222,520 in 2011 to 

253,205 aircraft by 2032. The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet 

(including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average of 2.9 percent a year over the forecast 

period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 4.0 percent a year.

 14 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

52

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from 

the 2010 total of 159,007 to 151,685 through 2023, with declines in both single and multi-engine 

fixed wing aircraft, but with the smaller category of piston-powered rotorcraft growing. Beyond 

2023, active piston-powered aircraft are forecast to increase to 155,395 by 2032. Over the 

forecast period, piston-powered aircraft is projected to decrease by an average annual rate of 0.1

percent. Although piston rotorcraft are forecast to increase by 2.1 percent a year, they are a 

relatively small part of this segment of general aviation aircraft and therefore have little effect on

the overall trend. Single-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are 

projected to decline at a rate of 0.1 percent, while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are 

projected to decline by 0.5 percent a year. 

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA's aircraft 

registry counts) was created: "light sport" aircraft. At the end of 2010, a total of 6,528 active

aircraft were estimated to be in this category. The forecast assumes about 4 percent annual 

growth of the fleet until 2013. Thereafter the rate of increase in the fleet slows to about 2 

percent per year. By 2032, a total of 10,195 light sport aircraft are projected to be in the fleet. 

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 1.7 percent yearly over 

the forecast period. The FAA projects above average growth in hours will occur after 2023 with 

increases in the fixed wing turbine aircraft fleet, as well as a rebounding single engine piston 

fleet and increasing utilization of single engine piston aircraft as the aging of this fleet starts to 

slow down. In the medium term, much of the increase in hours flown reflects strong growth in 

the rotorcraft and turbine jet fleets. Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are 

forecast to increase 3.6 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with essentially no 

growth (0.03 percent) for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most 

of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent over the 

forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the 

(0.4)

0.1 

0.6 

2.0 2.1 

2.9 

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Total Turbines
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

53

business jet fleet, along with a measured recovery in utilization rates from recession induced

record lows. Rotorcraft hours, which were less impacted by the economic downturn when 

compared to other categories and rebounded earlier, are projected to grow by 2.6 percent 

yearly. An expected decline in utilization rates of turbine rotorcraft is due to the assumption

that recently improved affordability at the lower end of the turbine market will sustain the recent 

market share shift toward turbines; however, as turbine powered rotorcraft replaces the 

pistons, and since most of their functions will remain unchanged, utilization rates of some of 

the new turbines will be closer to those of the pistons. Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is 

expected to see an increase in hours flown of 3.5 percent a year; this is primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 

510,295 in 2032, an increase of over 35,000 (up 0.3 percent yearly) over the forecast period. 

Commercial pilots are projected to increase from 120,865 in 2011 to 130,100 in 2032, an 

average annual increase of 0.4 percent. The number of student pilots is forecast to decrease at 

an average annual rate of 0.1 percent over the forecast period, declining from 118,657 in 2011 to 

116,720 in 2032. In addition, the FAA is projecting that by the end of the forecast period a total 

of 13,900 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2011, the number of sport pilot 

certificates issued was 4,066 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot 

certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at 

an average yearly rate of 0.1 percent over the forecast period to a total of 199,300 in 2032 

from 194,441 in 2011.

(1.6)

1.4 1.7 

(0.4)

8.7 

3.3 

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

 10.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Hours Flown in General Aviation Aircraft

Total Turbines
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

54

FAA Workload Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 512 FAA (264) and contract towers (248) totaled 50.7 million operations in 2011, 

down 1.0 percent from 2010. Activity is projected to decrease 1.2 percent in 2012, as declines 

in non-commercial operations more than offset increases in commercial activity. Growth in 

total activity at FAA and contract towers resumes in 2013 (1.1 percent) and for the balance of

the forecast, activity grows at an average rate of 1.1 percent per year, reaching 62.6 million 

operations in 2032.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity 

(up 1.8 percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to increase slightly (0.2) percent in 

2012 as carriers keep capacity under control given the uncertain economic environment. 

Beyond 2012, air carrier activity is projected to increase an average of 2.1 percent per year 

over the forecast period. Commuter/air taxi operations are forecast to fall 0.7 percent in 2012

then increase 1.6 percent a year for the balance of the forecast period. 

General aviation activity fell 2.3 percent in 2011 with declines in both itinerant (down 2.3

percent) and local (down 2.4 percent) activity. Activity is projected to fall again in 2012 (down 

2.2 percent) reflecting the continuing impact of the 2009 recession before beginning to rise

modestly in 2013 (up 0.4 percent) as a growing economy promotes the growth of flight hours 

and operations despite higher oil prices. For the entire forecast period, general aviation 

activity at towered airports is projected to increase an average of 0.4 percent a year, to

27.8 million operations in 2032. General aviation activity at combined FAA/contract towers 

grows in line with the modest increase forecast for general aviation piston hours already cited. 

Most operations at the smaller towers are in piston aircraft, while those at the largest airports tend 

to be turbine operations. 

Military activity rose 0.9 percent in 2011 and is assumed to remain at 2011 levels throughout 

the balance of the forecast period.

Operations15 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 1.8 percent in 2011, 

the seventh year in a row. They are projected to fall an additional 1.2 percent in 2012 as both 

commercial and non-commercial activity decline. After 2012, TRACON operations are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent for the balance of the forecast. For the 

entire forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.2 percent per year, totaling 

49.4 million in 2032. 

 15 TRACON operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals 

and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and VFR overflights. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

55

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to 

increase at 1.8 percent per year with increases in air carrier activity surpassing commuter/air 

taxi activity. General aviation operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 0.3 percent 

a year, reflecting the slow growth in the general aviation fleet and hours. Military activity is 

expected to remain at its 2011 level (2.4 million) of activity throughout the forecast period.

En-route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en-route traffic control centers increased 1.8 

percent to 41.2 million in 2011, highlighted by a 4.8 percent increase in commercial aviation 

activity. However given the projected declines in airline activity and general aviation hours, enroute center activity is forecast to decrease by 0.1 percent in 2012. After 2012, through the 

balance of the forecast period, en-route activity increases 2.1 percent annually, reaching 61.2 

million aircraft handled in 2032. Over the entire forecast period, commercial activity is 

projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent, reflecting increases in the 

commercial fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is 

projected to grow 0.9 percent per year, reflecting growth in business aviation. Military activity 

is held constant at the 2011 activity level throughout the forecast period.

 

-1.8

-1.2

1.3

-1.2

-0.4

1.9

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Tracon Operations

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

56

Activity at FAA en-route centers is growing faster than at FAA towered airports because more 

of the activity at en-route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end 

(mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at FAA towered 

airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

1.8

-0.1

2.1

4.8

0.1

2.4

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2011 2012 2012-32

Annual Percent Change 

Fiscal Year

IFR Aircraft Handled

at FAA En-Route Centers 

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

57

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) come in a variety of shapes and sizes, and serve many 

purposes. Some have wingspans as large as a Boeing 737 and some are smaller than a radiocontrolled model airplane. UAS have changed from remotely piloted vehicles with limited 

capabilities to semi and fully autonomous vehicles with expanded potential commercial 

applications. In the United States alone, over 50 companies, universities, and government 

organizations are developing and producing some 155 unmanned aircraft designs. Market 

Research Media projects an annual growth of 12 percent for UAS military market. The Teal 

Group forecasts over $94 billion in total UAS spending over the next ten years. 

To address the increasing civil market and the desire by civilian operators to fly UASs, the FAA 

is developing new policies, procedures, and approval processes. The FAA is working closely 

with stakeholders in the UAS community to define operational and certification requirements. 

It is critical to develop and validate appropriate operational procedures, regulatory standards 

and policies for routine UAS access to the NAS. To facilitate this, the FAA created the 

Unmanned Aircraft Program Office (UAPO). The FAA has asked RTCA – a group that 

frequently advises the agency on technical issues – to work with the industry and develop UAS 

standards. The FAA chartered an Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) to examine these 

operational and safety issues and make recommendations on how to proceed with regulating 

small UASs. The FAA is in the process of proposing a regulation based on the 

recommendations received from the ARC. 

Once enabled, commercial UAS markets will develop. There are many potential ways for a 

company to generate revenue from UAS applications, whether from new markets or more 

efficient applications in established markets. Based upon the expected regulatory environment, 

FAA predicts roughly 10,000 active commercial UASs in five years. 

With the safe integration into the airspace, UAS has the potential to be a significant component 

in commercial aviation. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

58

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) 

licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and 

non-federal launch sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 and 49 U.S. Code, Subtitle IX, 

Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). Title 49 and the Executive Order 

also direct the Department of Transportation (carried out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, 

and promote commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and regulate commercial 

launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health and safety, 

the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United 

States. 

Overview

Commercial space transportation primarily consists of commercial launch service providers 

launching satellites into orbit for either commercial or government customers. Commercial 

space transportation also includes suborbital launches, where a payload or a vehicle is 

launched on a trajectory that briefly enters space but returns to Earth without entering orbit. 

Finally, it includes the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most 

frequently used vehicles are: 

• Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture 

between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Lockheed Martin Commercial 

Launch Services (LMCLS);

• Delta IV, a heavy-class vehicle and the Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, both built by 

ULA and marketed by Boeing Launch Services (BLS);

• Falcon 9, an intermediate-class launch vehicle built, operated, and marketed by Space 

Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX). 

• Pegasus and Taurus, two small vehicles built, operated, and marketed by Orbital 

Sciences Corporation (Orbital); and

• Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye for the 

multinational Sea Launch venture which conducts launches from a floating launch 

platform, with Long Beach, CA as its home port.

The medium-class Antares by Orbital is currently under development and its first launch is 

planned for 2012. 

From 1989 through the end of 2011, DOT/FAA has licensed 205 orbital and suborbital 

commercial launches.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

59

Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, were first 

granted by the FAA in 2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Other permits have been 

granted for vehicles participating in the Lunar Lander Challenge. This is a competition to 

demonstrate technologies potentially applicable to both future lunar spacecraft and commercial 

suborbital vehicles, with $2 million in prizes offered by NASA’s Centennial Challenges 

program.

Eight commercial spaceports, located in six states, Alaska, California (Vandenberg Air Force 

Base and Mojave Air and Space Port), Florida (Cape Canaveral and Cecil Field Spaceport), 

New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia, currently have FAA launch site operator licenses. 

Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under development.

Review of 2011

There was one FAA-licensed orbital launch in 2011, down from four in 2010. Sea Launch 

performed one Zenit 3SL launch of the communications Atlantic Bird 7 satellite for Eutelsat.

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches, 2010-2011

2010 2011 2012 Forecast

Licensed Launches 4 1 6-9

Permitted Launches 0 2 10-25 

Worldwide there were 18 orbital commercial launches in 2011, compared to 23 in 2010. In 

addition to the one FAA-licensed launch, Europe performed four commercial launches, all on 

the Ariane 5 vehicle. Russian conducted 11 commercial launches of various vehicles, and 

China conduct two commercial launches on the Long March 3B vehicle. There were 84 total 

worldwide commercial, civil, and military launches in 2011, with commercial launches 

representing approximately 23 percent of the total. For more details, see the Year in Review 

report available online at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/.

Global Forecast

In May 2011, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee 

(COMSTAC) published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2011 

Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 28.6 

commercial orbital launches per year of geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and nongeosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2020. That annual average includes 15.6 

launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 11.1 launches of medium-toheavy vehicles to NGSO, and 1.9 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

60

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 

2,000 to over 6,000 kilograms. There has been an increase in the number of GSO satellites 

that are larger and more complex; however, there is still a demand for smaller satellites. 

Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets, including commercial 

remote sensing; science and technology demonstration; and replenishment and replacement 

of low Earth orbit communications satellite systems reaching the end of their lifespan. The 

majority of commercial NGSO launches for science and technology demonstration missions 

are for nations that do not have indigenous launch capability.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but 

instead represent the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The 

complete forecast report is available at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

61

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS

The FAA is confident that its current outlook for aviation demand and activity can be achieved. 

However, this year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors 

including security, as well as the strength of the economic recovery. As numerous recent 

incidents (the attempted bombing of a Northwest airliner on Christmas Day 2009, the discovery 

on multiple devices on cargo flights out of Europe in October 2010) remind us, terrorism 

remains among the greatest risks to achieving the forecast. Because of aviation’s high visibility 

and global reach, concerns remain about international terrorism. Any terrorist incident aimed at 

aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services. 

Although oil prices remained high in 2011, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the level 

of oil prices once the economic recovery is on firmer ground. The FAA’s baseline forecast 

(derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus released during 

the third quarter of 2011) calls for steady increases in oil prices after 2011. The increases are

relatively modest, with the price of oil approaching $110/barrel by 2015 and then remaining 

around that level until 2024. Thereafter, prices begin to escalate gradually, approaching 

$140/barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2032. Some forecasters are calling for a much 

sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 

2012 Annual Energy Outlook projects oil prices exceeding $120/barrel by 2015-2016 and 

continuing to rise over the next 20 years, reaching $195-$210 per barrel in 2032. While lower

oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, and 

increases the chances for industry profitability, higher oil prices could lead to further shifts in 

consumer expenditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery in air transport demand. 

Furthermore, higher oil prices, especially in the near term, could wipe out industry profitability, 

put increasing pressure on airline costs, delay balance sheet improvements and discourage 

expansion plans or orders for new aircraft as carriers focus on maintaining and increasing cash 

balances. 

Although the global economy has begun to grow again, the data suggests that a two track 

recovery is emerging, with growth concentrated in relatively few countries. As a result, the 

ensuing economic recovery may not be balanced and there is considerable doubt about the 

strength and sustainability of the expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that growth in 

China will be significantly higher than in the other large economies – U.S., Japan and the 

European Union. Doubts remain over the strength of demand in the U.S., Japan and in the 

European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems 

and institutional constraints. In addition, many countries in the European Union are 

implementing austerity policies, aimed at reducing government spending and personal debt, 

which could turn the regional downturn into a second global recession. Furthermore the steps 

that were taken to resuscitate the global economy may prove to be excessive, since the 

resulting surge in liquidity growth seems to be inflating asset bubbles and exacerbating

existing global imbalances. Once the global economy recovers from the current downturn, 

there could be an increased risk posed by asset bubbles and macroeconomic imbalances, 

which could result in a deeper, more prolonged, and less manageable recession and financial 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

62

crisis. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United 

States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously 

inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is mixed. For 

network carriers, the bankruptcy filing of American Airlines in November 2011 has led to much 

speculation of possible combinations with either U.S. Airways or Delta. In the low cost carrier 

sector, the merger between Southwest and AirTran is progressing at a steady pace with the 

issuance of a single operating certificate expected in early 2012. Aside from Southwest and 

AirTran, there appears to be little scope for further consolidation as there are significant 

obstacles. In particular the financial situation of many low cost carriers limits the possibilities of 

additional merger activity. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or 

the amount of financial risk associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. 

However, U.S. airlines are exploring other options including global alliances. Many of the 

major carriers in the U.S. are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of 

anti-trust immunity from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for

airline operators across borders, it may create an anti-competitive environment in the 

marketplace. These market consolidating vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity 

provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the 

future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand 

via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) 

into the fleet of regional carriers. However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to 

those of the larger network carriers. As demand continues to slowly recover, increased 

financial pressures on regional operators have appeared. Furthermore, as consolidation has 

occurred among the network carriers, certain regional carriers have found themselves either 

saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of feed traffic. Unlike the 

period after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, when network carriers also reduced the 

size and breadth of their networks, regional carriers have not necessarily seen opportunities 

for increased flying to backfill the loss of the mainline service. The Delta/Northwest 

combination and the impending United/Continental combination may reduce opportunities for 

regional flying substantially.

 

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation saw a 

partial recovery in 2010-11. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is

largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future 

uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not 

limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential 

environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on 

business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition 

from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates 

show that a record number of new business jets are delivered overseas and, with the potential 

easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet 

manufacturers looks all the more promising. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

63

subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look 

increasingly appealing.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the 

next 20 years, the mix of aircraft operating at most large hubs is also expected to become 

increasingly complex over the forecast period. The expected increases in the numbers of 

regional jets and business jets will increase the complexity of the national airspace system and 

make the FAA’s job more challenging. The increased complexity of the mix of aircraft serves 

to compound the increases in workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation 

services projected over the forecast period. 

Although overall activity at FAA and contract towers fell in 2011, activity at the largest airports 

increased in 2011 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. As 

demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit 

to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload are 

unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the 

projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more 

congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and workload would not be 

achieved. The Department of Transportation and the FAA are examining a number of options 

to manage congestion but the specific measures have yet to be implemented; therefore, their 

impacts are unknown at this time.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the 

ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport 

expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and

water quality concerns. Concerns about the climate impacts of aviation emissions continue to 

grow. Although aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, this 

is expected to increase with the growth in operations unless mitigated with new technology, 

renewable fuels, operational improvements and market based measures. Market based 

measures could lead to increased operating costs. For example, if international objections to 

inclusion of aviation in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not resolved, 

implementation of EU ETS has the potential to increase costs to the aviation sector. The 

increase in costs would not only raise the price of aviation to consumers but could also reduce 

available funds for needed investments in new technology that could reduce emissions. The 

increased costs could also conceivably hasten the adoption of more fuel efficient technologies. 

Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, 

and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of 

progress in improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in 

more restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service which in turn may

depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and 

renewable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast, and 

enable sustainable growth.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

64

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST 

SCENARIOS

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. As 

volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning 

purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA 

has begun to provide alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international regions 

from IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released third quarter 2011) were used to generate 

enplanements, mainline real yield and nominal yield. The baseline forecast of passenger trip 

length (an input variable used to forecast mainline real yield) was derived from recent historical 

trends and analyst judgment. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumptions from the 

optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus were 

used. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the baseline scenario inputs to create a 

“high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. The baseline forecast trip length was 

adjusted in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on the movement of oil prices in 

Global Insight’s alternative forecasts relative to the baseline forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by GDP. Thus, the baseline 

forecast of GDP for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and 

pessimistic forecasts of GDP described above in order to create a high and low case.

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn 

and suffers no major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, 

or financial meltdowns. In the alternative scenarios, the economy is assumed to proceed 

smoothly as well, however at a different pace than projected under the baseline forecast. 

Projections for economic growth in IHS Global Insight's alternative scenarios are rooted in 

demographics. In IHS Global Insight's optimistic forecast scenario, population grows more 

rapidly than in the baseline due to higher net immigration. The reverse is true for the 

pessimistic forecast; population grows more slowly than the baseline forecast due to slower net 

immigration.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic 

forecast is characterized by lower inflation and faster growth in the labor force and capital stock 

than in the baseline forecast. In this scenario productivity growth is higher and potential output 

climbs more rapidly, with GDP growing about 0.4 percentage points faster per year than the 

baseline forecast and unemployment averaging 0.4 points lower on an annual basis than the 

baseline (GDP and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

65

low forecasts of enplanements). Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s 

pessimistic scenario. The pessimistic forecast is characterized by higher inflation and slower 

growth in the labor force and capital stock than in the baseline forecast. In this scenario, the 

U.S. economy grows 0.6 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline due to slower 

productivity and lower potential output growth, and unemployment, on average, is 0.3 points 

higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.

Oil prices affect the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact on the 

profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices remain high by historical 

standards. In the baseline forecast, oil prices rise as the world economy recovers from the 

recession, but are kept in check as technological improvements act as a counterbalance to 

rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners acquisition cost (RAC) of oil increases 46 percent 

between 2011 and 2032, rising from $95 to $138 per barrel. In the high case, the RAC 

increases at a slower pace than in the baseline forecast resulting in a price of $114 per barrel at 

the end of the forecast period. The high case is characterized by availability of energy and 

gains in technology which help to temper prices compared to the baseline. In the low case 

forecast, scarcity of oil and lower productivity gains create upward pressure in oil prices. In this 

scenario, the RAC doubles, rising to $191 by 2032. 

2.0 1.9 2.0

2.6 2.6 2.6

3.0

3.3

2.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011-2032 2011-2016 2016-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

66

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the 

forecast period. In the high case the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate of 

1.6 percent per year (compared to growth of 2.0 percent annually in the baseline) as energy 

prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the low case forecast 

the opposite assumptions hold with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly 

compared to the baseline. As a result, in the low case, CPI grows an average of 3.4 percent 

annually over the forecast period as the growth accelerates to almost 4 percent per year by the 

end of the forecast. 

95.3

119.7

191.4

94.7

113.6

138.2

89.3

98.2

114.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2016 2032

$ Per Barrel

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

67

The baseline passenger trip length forecast is predicated upon analyst judgment and recent trip 

length trends. Carrier behavior as a result of volatile fuel prices during 2008–2011 provided the 

basis for adjusting trip length in the alternative forecasts. During 2008–2011, high fuel costs 

made flying on some longer haul routes cost prohibitive (thus unprofitable), resulting in lower 

trip length compared to prior years. Since the FAA’s low case forecast is characterized by 

higher fuel prices relative to the baseline forecast, it is assumed that trip length rises at a slower 

pace than in the baseline forecast. In FAA’s high forecast, fuel prices are lower than projected 

in the baseline, pushing trip length up as lower fuel prices make flying longer-haul routes more 

affordable.

3.4

2.6

3.6

2.0 2.0 1.9

1.6 1.5 1.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011-2032 2011-2016 2016-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

68

Alternative Forecasts

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 

2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon (with domestic and international passengers up 2.3 

and 4.1 percent, respectively). In the high case, passengers grow at a quicker pace, averaging 

2.9 percent per year (up 2.7 percent domestically and 4.7 percent internationally). This scenario 

is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. In the high 

case, one billion passengers are forecast for 2022, two years earlier than predicted in the 

baseline forecast. The low case is characterized by increased costs of capital resulting from 

higher interest rates, weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, 

and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow an average of 1.9 percent per year 

(domestic up 1.7 percent and international up 3.1 percent). In the low case, one billion 

passengers are reached in 2028, four years later than in the baseline forecast.

Revenue Passenger Miles

The forecast of RPMs is produced by multiplying assumptions for trip length in each forecast 

scenario by passengers from the same scenario. Thus, the assumptions used to create the trip 

length and passenger forecasts drive RPM growth. In the baseline forecast, system RPMs 

grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent a year, with domestic RPMs increasing 2.7

1.9

1.7

2.0

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.3

2.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011-2032 2011-2016 2016-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

69

percent annually and international RPMs growing 4.2 percent annually. In the high case, the 

faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the 

baseline, with growth averaging 3.7 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.1

and 4.7 percent, respectively). In the low case, the combination of a slower growing economy 

and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.4 percent annually with domestic 

markets growing 2.0 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.3 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.1 percent annually 

over the forecast horizon (with growth averaging 2.5 percent annually in domestic markets and 

4.2 percent a year in international markets). In the high case, capacity grows at a faster clip 

than in the baseline forecast, averaging growth of 3.6 percent annually (up 3.0 percent 

domestically and up 4.7 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity compared to the 

baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment. In the low case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus 

system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.3 percent annually (domestic up 1.9 percent 

annually and international up 3.2 percent annually).

2.4

2.0

2.6

3.2

2.7

3.3

3.7 3.8

3.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011-2032 2011-2016 2016-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

70

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. In the base case, system load factor rises from 82.0 percent in 2011 to 83.4 percent 

in 2032. In both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, system load factor increases from 

82.0 percent in 2011 to 83.3 percent in 2032. In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers 

will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely 

meet demand (passengers). The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 

82.5 percent to 84.8 percent in the base case, and to 84.3 percent and 84.4 percent, 

respectively, in the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. The international load factor grows 

from 80.7 percent to 81.2 percent in the base case and 81.6 and 81.7 percent, respectively, in 

the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.2 percent annually, going from 13.95

cents in 2011 to 18.08 cents in 2032. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises 

from 13.9 cents in 2011 to 17.8 cents in 2032, while international yield rises from 14.1 cents to 

18.5 cents. System yield rises more slowly in the high case, up 1.0 percent annually to be 17.4

cents at the end of the forecast period. Domestic yield increases to 17.4 cents while 

international yield increases to 17.3 cents. The slower growth in yield in the high case is due to 

advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and lower 

inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market fares 

are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased market overlap between low cost and 

2.3

1.8

2.5

3.1

2.4

3.3

3.6 3.6 3.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2011-2032 2011-2016 2016-2032

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

71

legacy carriers. In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization 

puts downward pressure on fares. In the low case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the 

baseline, growing an average of 2.9 percent annually, reaching 25.3 cents by 2032 (25.7 cents 

domestically and 24.4 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general inflation and 

higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the 

higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital. 

Passenger Trip Length

Over the 21-year forecast horizon, baseline system passenger trip length is assumed to grow 

an average of 7.7 miles per year. In the high case, passenger trip length grows 8.3 miles per 

year, 0.6 miles per year faster than in the base case. In the high case, fuel prices are lower 

than in the baseline which allows carriers to operate longer-haul routes more profitably. 

Conversely, the low forecast is characterized by fuel prices that are higher than the baseline 

forecast. Higher fuel costs makes flying longer-haul routes less affordable to the carriers; 

hence passenger trip length trails the baseline forecast by 1.8 miles per year, growing an 

average of 5.9 miles per year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

72

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2011 2012 2017 2022 2032 11-12 11-17 12-22 11-32

Economic

AssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product Pessimistic 13,246 13,385 14,857 16,281 19,993 1.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

(BIL 05$) Baseline 13,256 13,474 15,511 17,542 22,614 1.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%

Optimistic 13,262 13,642 16,081 18,582 24,801 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 95.3 102.7 122.9 132.3 191.4 7.8% 4.3% 2.6% 3.4%

Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 94.7 100.4 115.9 115.4 138.2 6.0% 3.4% 1.4% 1.8%

Optimistic 89.3 75.3 101.5 106.2 114.1 -15.7% 2.1% 3.5% 1.2%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.23 2.28 2.63 3.10 4.46 2.2% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4%

All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.23 2.27 2.51 2.76 3.35 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 2.22 2.24 2.44 2.64 3.09 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 9.3 9.8 7.0 6.0 5.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2

(%) Baseline 9.2 9.2 6.5 5.7 5.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2

Optimistic 9.2 8.8 6.2 5.3 4.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2

Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2011

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2011-2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

73

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2011 2012 2017 2022 2032 11-12 11-17 12-22 11-32

System 

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 993.9 988.6 1,110.1 1,251.1 1,612.6 -0.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3%

(BIL) Baseline 993.9 994.3 1,155.6 1,356.2 1,885.5 0.0% 2.5% 3.2% 3.1%

Optimistic 993.9 1,046.8 1,222.9 1,445.7 2,080.1 5.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.6%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 814.6 812.8 919.9 1,040.1 1,343.9 -0.2% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4%

(BIL) Baseline 814.6 818.6 960.4 1,130.2 1,573.4 0.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 814.6 861.1 1,013.4 1,201.7 1,733.0 5.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.7%

Enplanements Pessimistic 730.7 726.8 811.2 894.0 1,085.7 -0.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9%

(MIL) Baseline 730.7 731.8 841.6 956.3 1,233.0 0.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5%

Optimistic 730.7 765.5 881.5 1,010.7 1,345.0 4.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,047.5 6,966.1 7,720.3 8,581.5 10,758.8 -1.2% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0%

(MIL) Baseline 7,047.5 7,014.3 8,013.0 9,246.5 12,469.3 -0.5% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8%

Optimistic 7,047.5 7,400.5 8,477.8 9,854.0 13,758.0 5.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,505.5 9,367.8 10,221.0 10,910.0 12,505.9 -1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3%

(000s) Baseline 9,505.5 9,425.6 10,491.4 11,496.3 13,867.8 -0.8% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8%

Optimistic 9,505.5 9,725.6 11,001.4 12,199.1 15,089.4 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.95 14.58 17.15 19.02 25.25 4.5% 3.5% 2.7% 2.9%

(cents) Baseline 13.95 14.50 15.96 16.62 18.08 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2%

Optimistic 13.95 14.58 16.21 16.83 17.37 4.5% 2.5% 1.4% 1.0%

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2011-2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

74

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2011 2012 2017 2022 2032 11-12 11-17 12-22 11-32

Domestic

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 693.9 686.9 755.0 834.8 1,028.2 -1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.9%

(BIL) Baseline 693.9 688.4 778.2 887.8 1,171.4 -0.8% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5%

Optimistic 693.9 737.9 825.7 946.8 1,294.5 6.3% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 572.5 568.9 631.8 701.6 866.6 -0.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0%

(BIL) Baseline 572.5 571.3 654.9 750.6 993.6 -0.2% 2.3% 2.8% 2.7%

Optimistic 572.5 611.3 691.2 796.1 1,092.0 6.8% 3.2% 2.7% 3.1%

Enplanements Pessimistic 649.9 646.2 717.8 785.3 933.1 -0.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.7%

(MIL) Baseline 649.9 649.4 741.4 832.6 1,044.1 -0.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3%

Optimistic 649.9 682.4 775.9 878.3 1,134.7 5.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,661.8 5,582.7 6,119.1 6,727.4 8,205.0 -1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8%

(MIL) Baseline 5,661.8 5,604.0 6,293.8 7,133.9 9,297.2 -1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%

Optimistic 5,661.8 5,978.8 6,678.4 7,612.6 10,270.3 5.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.9%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,915.3 8,799.7 9,584.2 10,190.7 11,541.9 -1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2%

(000s) Baseline 8,915.3 8,828.4 9,785.1 10,648.1 12,623.9 -1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7%

Optimistic 8,915.3 9,136.5 10,280.4 11,319.7 13,747.0 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.88 14.42 16.79 19.15 25.70 3.9% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0%

(cents) Baseline 13.88 14.31 15.90 16.53 17.83 3.1% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2%

Optimistic 13.88 14.43 16.39 17.10 17.41 4.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1%

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2011-2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

75

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2011 2012 2017 2022 2032 11-12 11-17 12-22 11-32

International

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 300.0 301.7 355.0 416.3 584.4 0.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2%(BIL) Baseline 300.0 305.9 377.4 468.4 714.1 2.0% 3.9% 4.4% 4.2%

Optimistic 300.0 308.9 397.2 498.9 785.6 3.0% 4.8% 4.9% 4.7%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 242.1 244.0 288.0 338.6 477.3 0.8% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3%(BIL) Baseline 242.1 247.4 305.5 379.6 579.8 2.2% 4.0% 4.4% 4.2%

Optimistic 242.1 249.8 322.2 405.5 641.0 3.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7%

Enplanements Pessimistic 80.8 80.6 93.4 108.7 152.6 -0.3% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1%

(MIL) Baseline 80.8 82.3 100.2 123.7 188.8 1.9% 3.7% 4.2% 4.1%

Optimistic 80.8 83.1 105.6 132.4 210.3 2.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,385.7 1,383.4 1,601.2 1,854.1 2,553.8 -0.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0%(MIL) Baseline 1,385.7 1,410.2 1,719.1 2,112.6 3,172.1 1.8% 3.7% 4.1% 4.0%

Optimistic 1,385.7 1,421.7 1,799.4 2,241.4 3,487.7 2.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 590.2 568.1 636.8 719.3 964.0 -3.7% 1.3% 2.4% 2.4%

(000s) Baseline 590.2 597.2 706.3 848.2 1,243.9 1.2% 3.0% 3.6% 3.6%

Optimistic 590.2 589.1 721.0 879.4 1,342.4 -0.2% 3.4% 4.1% 4.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.12 14.94 16.68 18.75 24.43 5.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6%(cents) Baseline 14.12 14.95 16.09 16.80 18.50 5.9% 2.2% 1.2% 1.3%

Optimistic 14.12 14.95 15.83 16.31 17.32 5.9% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2011-2032
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

76

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve 

not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on 

industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet 

reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the 

volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would 

contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build 

forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on 

the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast 

metrics during the FY 2006-2011 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced 

industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For 

this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to 

inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast 

methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the 

actual results for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the 

relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast 

took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute 

percent error was 11.6 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period 

under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2006 through FY 2011 occurred in FY 

2005, FY 2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, FY 2009, and FY 2010, respectively.16 

 16 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. 

Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

77

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2006 - FY 

2011)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

ASMs 0.7% 5.6% 11.6% 16.1% 19.9%

RPMs 0.9% 3.7% 7.4% 11.5% 12.2%

Passenger Enplanements 0.7% 3.8% 8.1% 11.3% 12.8%

Mainline Yield 4.2% 5.4% 5.9% 4.8% 8.0%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.9% 7.8% 12.4% 15.9% 17.5%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longerterm trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is 

closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an 

examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic 

shifts in accuracy occur. 

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined 

show declining variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest 

variances were found in the forecasts of ASMs the variable most directly affected by 

exogenous events. Second, the relative divergence in forecast variances between RPMs and 

ASMs suggests errors in forecasting load factors. Third, the ASM forecast variance being 

larger than the RPM forecast variance indicates a consistent underestimation of load factors, 

one of the critical elements in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. All other 

things being equal, large variances in forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the 

long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft 

handled forecasts. 

Furthermore, ASMs and aircraft handled are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond 

a relatively short time horizon, as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The 

relatively large variances in these forecasts suggest that carriers have been permanently 

removing capacity by reducing flights and by changing the mix of aircraft to satisfy demand. In 

the short term, such capacity reductions can be identified by using advance schedule 

information. However, the FAA’s longer-term forecasts rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries 

and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic activity and capacity 

deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer term 

ASM and aircraft handled forecasts, a simpler approach to projecting ASMs, such as RPMs 

divided by load factors, may improve the long run accuracy of the ASM and aircraft handled 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

78

forecasts. It should also be noted that the low variance of the mainline passenger yield relative 

to the other metrics is due in large part to the inclusion of FY 2011 in the sample period. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

79

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The 

following individuals were responsible for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers:

 – Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027

Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302

 – Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-8031

General Aviation:

 – Forecasts Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

 – Survey Data Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures:

 – Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

 – Data Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division, APO-100

Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Commercial Space: John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, AST-100 

(202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation: Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff

Forecast Conference Planner: Linda Baranovics (202) 267-7924

APO Websites:

 – Forecasts/Statistical Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

 – APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email:

 – APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

80

This page has been intentionally left blank.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

81

APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

82

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2011 FISCAL YEAR 2012 FISCAL YEAR 2013

VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real GDP

(Billions of 2005$) 13,216.1 13,227.9 13,270.1 13,309.1 13,357.4 13,438.4 13,519.0 13,580.6 13,642.9 13,690.6 13,791.1 13,887.4

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 3.0% 2.8%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars) 81.52 93.85 107.78 95.54 96.81 99.63 101.58 103.52 105.47 106.04 107.68 109.48

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 75.7% 73.9% -38.2% 5.4% 12.2% 8.1% 7.9% 7.7% 2.2% 6.3% 6.9%

Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 219.5 222.3 224.5 225.7 226.1 226.9 227.4 228.6 229.6 230.7 231.8 233.1

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 5.2% 4.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1%

Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2011

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

83

TABLE 2

GROSS CONSUMER PRICE REFINERS' ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT INDEX AVERAGEYEAR (Billions 2005$) (1982-84=100) (Dollars per barrel)

Historical

2000 11,136.4 170.74 26.702005 12,535.9 193.48 47.202006 12,882.8 200.58 59.942007 13,134.5 205.31 60.622008 13,272.6 214.43 101.522009 12,720.6 213.77 54.682010 12,987.3 217.43 74.612011E 13,255.8 222.98 94.67Forecast

2012 13,473.8 227.24 100.382013 13,753.0 231.29 107.172014 14,158.7 236.09 110.222015 14,649.2 240.92 109.832016 15,099.7 246.22 113.582017 15,511.1 251.36 115.922018 15,899.2 256.39 117.292019 16,302.1 261.27 117.522020 16,723.4 265.89 115.342021 17,127.0 270.73 115.342022 17,541.9 275.73 115.442023 18,001.3 280.67 114.562024 18,476.7 285.89 116.342025 18,961.5 291.34 118.432026 19,451.4 297.01 120.602027 19,946.5 302.81 122.902028 20,444.9 308.78 126.042029 20,955.5 315.00 129.212030 21,498.7 321.41 132.392031 22,056.2 328.04 135.272032 22,614.2 334.89 138.18Avg Annual Growth2000-11 1.6% 2.5% 12.2%

2011-12 1.6% 1.9% 6.0%2011-21 2.6% 2.0% 2.0%2011-32 2.6% 2.0% 1.8%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2011

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

84

TABLE 3

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

JAPAN/PACIFIC

EUROPE/ BASIN/CHINA/OTHER

CALENDAR AFRICA/ LATIN AMERICA/ ASIA/AUSTRALIA/

YEAR CANADA MIDDLE EAST MEXICO N. ZEALAND WORLD

Historical*

2000 1,000.2 16,058.1 2,483.8 9,046.4 39,805.02005 1,134.1 18,144.3 2,815.0 11,054.2 45,770.62006 1,166.1 18,901.6 2,968.6 11,679.9 47,674.62007 1,191.8 19,635.9 3,126.8 12,437.7 49,598.52008 1,200.0 19,872.2 3,246.6 12,813.9 50,294.62009 1,166.7 19,162.5 3,178.1 12,932.5 49,143.02010 1,204.2 19,649.1 3,356.7 13,816.2 51,114.22011E 1,230.4 20,087.7 3,491.3 14,397.3 52,514.8Forecast

2012 1,253.7 20,410.2 3,609.3 15,118.8 53,883.52013 1,286.3 20,910.5 3,767.3 15,958.2 55,732.42014 1,322.4 21,496.9 3,949.4 16,837.6 57,904.52015 1,358.8 22,108.1 4,119.3 17,723.9 60,088.92016 1,394.4 22,702.3 4,302.5 18,627.9 62,227.32017 1,429.5 23,287.9 4,484.5 19,534.9 64,322.82018 1,465.8 23,870.6 4,673.8 20,465.1 66,426.02019 1,500.9 24,463.6 4,871.9 21,425.0 68,606.22020 1,534.4 25,071.4 5,075.2 22,416.9 70,867.52021 1,569.6 25,687.0 5,286.5 23,440.5 73,155.12022 1,605.5 26,302.8 5,503.0 24,480.8 75,493.32023 1,642.6 26,928.3 5,726.4 25,532.0 77,891.42024 1,679.6 27,558.2 5,957.9 26,608.1 80,343.22025 1,717.5 28,196.9 6,199.2 27,731.5 82,868.42026 1,755.9 28,843.1 6,450.2 28,885.2 85,448.02027 1,795.1 29,502.8 6,709.1 30,082.7 88,097.72028 1,835.6 30,171.8 6,976.2 31,309.8 90,800.22029 1,877.2 30,848.2 7,254.8 32,576.2 93,577.52030 1,920.1 31,539.1 7,543.3 33,874.3 96,447.72031 1,964.8 32,245.4 7,841.9 35,209.2 99,388.42032 2,011.8 32,961.4 8,150.8 36,570.0 102,375.5Avg Annual Growth2000-11 1.9% 2.1% 3.1% 4.3% 2.6%

2011-12 1.9% 1.6% 3.4% 5.0% 2.6%

2011-21 2.5% 2.5% 4.2% 5.0% 3.4%

2011-32 2.4% 2.4% 4.1% 4.5% 3.2%

*Source: IHS Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 14 OCT 2011.

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

85

TABLE 4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

CALENDAR AMERICA UNITED

YEAR (NAFTA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical

2000 13,003.4 9,382.9 1,978.6 4,268.6 1,417.2

2005 14,605.5 10,106.0 2,279.7 4,553.8 2,257.1

2006 15,016.6 10,432.1 2,339.1 4,646.5 2,543.7

2007 15,319.2 10,743.3 2,420.2 4,753.5 2,904.9

2008 15,294.5 10,772.8 2,393.5 4,698.0 3,183.7

2009 14,745.3 10,319.4 2,288.8 4,401.6 3,477.0

2010 15,214.8 10,500.1 2,329.2 4,578.4 3,836.0

2011E 15,496.9 10,672.3 2,349.7 4,551.2 4,192.2

Forecast

2012 15,728.0 10,707.9 2,374.2 4,672.4 4,532.9

2013 16,114.3 10,860.5 2,424.0 4,802.4 4,921.5

2014 16,685.0 11,065.2 2,484.5 4,901.3 5,341.8

2015 17,243.2 11,288.3 2,551.5 4,977.2 5,779.7

2016 17,743.9 11,495.3 2,615.8 5,037.0 6,235.7

2017 18,207.4 11,696.0 2,677.8 5,075.5 6,704.3

2018 18,652.4 11,893.8 2,739.4 5,103.0 7,195.6

2019 19,127.5 12,094.6 2,801.3 5,129.5 7,707.4

2020 19,632.2 12,295.0 2,865.8 5,154.3 8,238.9

2021 20,118.5 12,497.7 2,930.5 5,174.7 8,800.6

2022 20,633.2 12,699.9 2,993.8 5,193.4 9,374.0

2023 21,180.9 12,903.0 3,057.9 5,211.6 9,951.5

2024 21,746.9 13,109.3 3,121.8 5,229.9 10,536.7

2025 22,322.5 13,315.8 3,186.1 5,247.7 11,152.6

2026 22,906.7 13,525.5 3,252.1 5,265.4 11,787.6

2027 23,496.6 13,738.8 3,321.3 5,283.9 12,448.7

2028 24,092.4 13,953.1 3,391.4 5,302.8 13,124.5

2029 24,708.6 14,166.4 3,461.3 5,320.4 13,823.6

2030 25,362.8 14,381.7 3,534.0 5,336.9 14,537.9

2031 26,027.1 14,602.5 3,608.5 5,353.5 15,276.3

2032 26,692.8 14,824.9 3,684.3 5,369.8 16,024.3

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 10.4%2011-12 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% 2.7% 8.1%2011-21 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.3% 7.7%2011-32 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 0.8% 6.6%Source: IHS Global Insight

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS 

– SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

86

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*

2000 641.2 56.4 697.6 512.8 181.8 694.62005 669.5 67.4 737.0 573.2 197.2 770.42006 668.4 71.6 740.0 582.4 208.5 790.92007 690.1 75.3 765.3 600.5 221.2 821.72008 680.7 78.3 759.1 594.6 233.8 828.52009 630.8 73.6 704.4 548.6 221.3 769.92010 635.2 77.4 712.6 555.8 230.9 786.72011E 649.9 80.8 730.7 572.5 242.1 814.6Forecast

2012 649.4 82.3 731.8 571.3 247.4 818.62013 660.8 84.8 745.6 583.5 256.1 839.72014 673.7 88.4 762.2 594.5 267.6 862.12015 703.6 92.1 795.7 620.2 279.1 899.32016 723.9 96.1 820.0 638.4 292.1 930.52017 741.4 100.2 841.6 654.9 305.5 960.42018 759.1 104.4 863.5 673.4 319.1 992.52019 777.1 108.9 886.1 691.8 333.3 1,025.0

2020 796.4 113.7 910.1 711.5 348.1 1,059.7

2021 814.3 118.5 932.9 730.8 363.4 1,094.3

2022 832.6 123.7 956.3 750.6 379.6 1,130.2

2023 852.8 129.2 981.9 772.3 396.4 1,168.6

2024 872.9 135.0 1,007.9 794.1 414.1 1,208.2

2025 892.9 141.0 1,033.9 816.0 432.6 1,248.6

2026 913.7 147.2 1,060.9 839.7 451.9 1,291.6

2027 934.9 153.6 1,088.5 864.3 471.5 1,335.8

2028 955.9 160.1 1,116.0 888.9 491.7 1,380.6

2029 976.9 166.9 1,143.8 913.8 512.5 1,426.4

2030 998.8 174.0 1,172.9 939.7 534.4 1,474.1

2031 1,021.5 181.3 1,202.8 966.5 556.7 1,523.22032 1,044.1 188.8 1,233.0 993.6 579.8 1,573.4Avg Annual Growth2000-11 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 1.0% 2.6% 1.5%2011-12 -0.1% 1.9% 0.2% -0.2% 2.2% 0.5%2011-21 2.3% 3.9% 2.5% 2.5% 4.1% 3.0%2011-32 2.3% 4.1% 2.5% 2.7% 4.2% 3.2%*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

87

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*

2000 726.6 512.8 70.6 239.3 181.8 76.0 965.9 694.6 71.9

2005 755.2 573.2 75.9 248.5 197.2 79.4 1,003.6 770.4 76.8

2006 740.2 582.4 78.7 261.3 208.5 79.8 1,001.5 790.9 79.0

2007 752.5 600.5 79.8 275.9 221.2 80.2 1,028.4 821.7 79.9

2008 749.6 594.6 79.3 292.7 233.8 79.9 1,042.4 828.5 79.5

2009 682.5 548.6 80.4 283.3 221.3 78.1 965.8 769.9 79.7

2010 680.0 555.8 81.7 281.2 230.9 82.1 961.3 786.7 81.8

2011E 693.9 572.5 82.5 300.0 242.1 80.7 993.9 814.6 82.0

Forecast

2012 688.4 571.3 83.0 305.9 247.4 80.8 994.3 818.6 82.3

2013 698.7 583.5 83.5 316.5 256.1 80.9 1,015.1 839.7 82.7

2014 710.0 594.5 83.7 330.8 267.6 80.9 1,040.8 862.1 82.8

2015 739.2 620.2 83.9 344.9 279.1 80.9 1,084.1 899.3 83.0

2016 759.6 638.4 84.0 360.9 292.1 80.9 1,120.5 930.5 83.0

2017 778.2 654.9 84.2 377.4 305.5 81.0 1,155.6 960.4 83.1

2018 799.2 673.4 84.3 394.0 319.1 81.0 1,193.2 992.5 83.2

2019 820.1 691.8 84.3 411.4 333.3 81.0 1,231.6 1,025.0 83.2

2020 842.8 711.5 84.4 429.7 348.1 81.0 1,272.5 1,059.7 83.3

2021 865.0 730.8 84.5 448.5 363.4 81.0 1,313.5 1,094.3 83.3

2022 887.8 750.6 84.5 468.4 379.6 81.1 1,356.2 1,130.2 83.3

2023 913.0 772.3 84.6 488.9 396.4 81.1 1,401.9 1,168.6 83.4

2024 938.3 794.1 84.6 510.7 414.1 81.1 1,449.0 1,208.2 83.4

2025 963.8 816.0 84.7 533.5 432.6 81.1 1,497.2 1,248.6 83.4

2026 991.4 839.7 84.7 557.1 451.9 81.1 1,548.5 1,291.6 83.4

2027 1,020.1 864.3 84.7 581.2 471.5 81.1 1,601.3 1,335.8 83.4

2028 1,048.9 888.9 84.7 605.9 491.7 81.1 1,654.8 1,380.6 83.4

2029 1,078.0 913.8 84.8 631.5 512.5 81.2 1,709.5 1,426.4 83.4

2030 1,108.3 939.7 84.8 658.3 534.4 81.2 1,766.6 1,474.1 83.4

2031 1,139.6 966.5 84.8 685.8 556.7 81.2 1,825.4 1,523.2 83.4

2032 1,171.4 993.6 84.8 714.1 579.8 81.2 1,885.5 1,573.4 83.4

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.2%

2011-12 -0.8% -0.2% 0.6% 2.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4%

2011-21 2.2% 2.5% 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.0% 0.2%

2011-32 2.5% 2.7% 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 0.1%

*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

88

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL

FISCAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical*

2000 20.9 24.3 11.2 56.4 87.1 36.3 58.4 181.8

2005 21.6 32.5 13.2 67.4 89.5 48.6 59.2 197.2

2006 22.5 35.2 13.9 71.6 93.9 53.6 61.1 208.5

2007 24.1 37.6 13.6 75.3 102.2 57.7 61.4 221.2

2008 26.0 39.1 13.2 78.3 112.7 60.7 60.4 233.8

2009 24.7 36.8 12.0 73.6 108.9 57.7 54.7 221.3

2010 24.5 40.0 12.9 77.4 108.6 63.1 59.2 230.9

2011E 25.3 42.0 13.5 80.8 111.7 66.8 63.6 242.1

Forecast

2012 25.5 43.3 13.6 82.3 112.8 69.9 64.6 247.4

2013 26.2 44.9 13.7 84.8 116.5 73.2 66.4 256.1

2014 27.1 46.9 14.4 88.4 121.0 76.4 70.1 267.6

2015 27.9 49.0 15.2 92.1 125.4 80.2 73.5 279.1

2016 29.0 51.2 16.0 96.1 131.3 84.0 76.8 292.1

2017 30.1 53.3 16.8 100.2 137.6 87.9 79.9 305.5

2018 31.2 55.7 17.6 104.4 143.9 92.1 83.1 319.1

2019 32.3 58.2 18.3 108.9 150.2 96.8 86.3 333.3

2020 33.5 61.0 19.2 113.7 156.6 101.8 89.7 348.1

2021 34.7 63.8 20.0 118.5 163.5 106.9 93.0 363.4

2022 36.0 66.9 20.8 123.7 170.8 112.3 96.4 379.6

2023 37.2 70.2 21.7 129.2 178.2 118.3 99.9 396.4

2024 38.6 73.8 22.6 135.0 185.9 124.7 103.4 414.1

2025 40.0 77.5 23.5 141.0 194.1 131.4 107.1 432.6

2026 41.4 81.4 24.4 147.2 202.8 138.3 110.8 451.9

2027 42.9 85.2 25.4 153.6 211.8 145.2 114.5 471.5

2028 44.5 89.2 26.4 160.1 221.0 152.4 118.4 491.7

2029 46.0 93.4 27.4 166.9 230.4 159.9 122.3 512.5

2030 47.6 98.0 28.4 174.0 240.0 168.0 126.3 534.4

2031 49.2 102.6 29.5 181.3 250.1 176.3 130.3 556.7

2032 51.0 107.3 30.5 188.8 260.7 184.7 134.4 579.8

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 1.8% 5.1% 1.7% 3.3% 2.3% 5.7% 0.8% 2.6%

2011-12 0.7% 3.2% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 4.7% 1.6% 2.2%

2011-21 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.8% 3.9% 4.1%

2011-32 3.4% 4.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 5.0% 3.6% 4.2%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

89

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR U.S./CANADAYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical*

2000 53.0 40.8 26.0 20.8 140.62005 49.9 44.2 25.1 19.7 139.02006 49.8 47.1 25.6 21.0 143.52007 53.3 48.6 26.3 21.5 149.72008 57.1 49.8 25.8 21.7 154.42009 55.0 48.0 24.4 20.2 147.52010 55.9 53.1 26.7 21.8 157.52011E 55.6 55.7 28.2 22.3 161.8Forecast

2012 56.5 57.5 29.3 22.7 166.02013 58.2 60.2 31.0 23.4 172.72014 61.2 63.6 32.8 24.3 181.92015 64.5 67.0 34.5 25.2 191.12016 67.4 70.4 36.1 26.1 199.92017 70.2 73.8 37.6 26.9 208.42018 72.9 77.3 39.1 27.7 217.02019 75.8 81.1 40.7 28.5 226.02020 78.9 85.0 42.3 29.4 235.52021 81.9 89.0 43.9 30.2 245.02022 85.0 93.2 45.6 31.1 254.92023 88.3 97.7 47.3 32.0 265.32024 91.7 102.3 49.1 33.0 276.02025 95.1 107.1 50.9 34.0 287.22026 98.6 112.2 52.7 35.0 298.62027 102.3 117.5 54.7 36.1 310.4

2028 105.9 122.9 56.6 37.1 322.6

2029 109.7 128.6 58.6 38.2 335.2

2030 113.7 134.6 60.7 39.4 348.4

2031 117.8 140.9 62.8 40.6 362.1

2032 122.0 147.3 64.9 41.8 376.1

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 0.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%

2011-12 1.7% 3.1% 4.1% 1.9% 2.6%

2011-21 3.9% 4.8% 4.5% 3.1% 4.2%

2011-32 3.8% 4.7% 4.1% 3.0% 4.1%

*Source: INS Immigration Service

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

90

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*

2000 129.3 230.6 145.0 799.8 3,223.2 995.7

2005 120.4 217.1 135.3 856.2 2,924.6 1,045.4

2006 120.1 215.0 135.7 871.4 2,911.5 1,068.8

2007 120.4 216.1 136.6 870.2 2,939.0 1,073.7

2008 120.8 218.6 138.2 873.5 2,985.2 1,091.4

2009 121.8 219.0 140.0 869.7 3,008.1 1,093.1

2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 875.0 2,983.8 1,104.0

2011E 122.6 216.5 141.0 881.0 2,997.4 1,114.9

Forecast

2012 122.8 217.0 141.8 879.7 3,004.8 1,118.7

2013 123.3 217.3 142.6 883.1 3,020.7 1,126.2

2014 123.4 218.0 143.1 882.4 3,026.3 1,131.1

2015 123.5 218.4 143.3 881.4 3,028.9 1,130.1

2016 123.5 219.0 143.7 881.9 3,038.6 1,134.7

2017 123.6 219.5 144.2 883.4 3,048.2 1,141.2

2018 123.8 220.0 144.7 887.1 3,055.5 1,149.3

2019 124.0 220.5 145.2 890.1 3,059.7 1,156.8

2020 124.1 220.9 145.7 893.4 3,061.9 1,164.3

2021 124.3 221.3 146.2 897.5 3,066.0 1,173.0

2022 124.5 221.7 146.7 901.5 3,068.8 1,181.9

2023 124.6 222.0 147.1 905.6 3,069.0 1,190.2

2024 124.8 222.4 147.6 909.7 3,068.4 1,198.7

2025 124.9 222.7 148.1 913.8 3,068.2 1,207.6

2026 125.1 223.0 148.5 919.0 3,068.8 1,217.4

2027 125.2 223.4 149.0 924.4 3,070.2 1,227.2

2028 125.4 223.8 149.4 929.9 3,071.4 1,237.1

2029 125.5 224.1 149.9 935.4 3,071.6 1,247.1

2030 125.7 224.4 150.3 940.8 3,070.5 1,256.8

2031 125.8 224.8 150.8 946.2 3,070.0 1,266.4

2032 126.0 225.1 151.2 951.6 3,071.0 1,276.2

*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 9

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

91

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL (Millions) (Billions)

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*

2000 561.5 53.3 614.8 490.0 181.0 670.9

2005 523.1 64.2 587.3 509.6 195.8 705.4

2006 516.2 68.1 584.4 513.9 206.8 720.7

2007 533.9 71.9 605.7 529.9 219.5 749.4

2008 521.6 74.8 596.5 521.3 231.9 753.3

2009 476.8 71.0 547.8 478.2 220.0 698.2

2010 473.6 74.7 548.3 480.7 229.6 710.3

2011E 488.6 78.3 566.9 497.0 240.3 737.4

Forecast

2012 487.0 79.9 566.9 494.9 246.1 741.0

2013 497.3 82.4 579.7 506.0 254.8 760.9

2014 506.3 86.0 592.3 514.8 266.2 781.0

2015 528.1 89.5 617.6 536.2 277.6 813.9

2016 542.6 93.5 636.1 551.0 290.6 841.6

2017 555.4 97.5 652.9 564.5 304.0 868.5

2018 568.3 101.6 669.9 579.9 317.5 897.4

2019 581.4 106.0 687.4 595.1 331.6 926.7

2020 595.4 110.7 706.2 611.3 346.4 957.7

2021 608.4 115.5 723.9 627.1 361.7 988.8

2022 621.5 120.6 742.1 643.2 377.8 1,021.0

2023 636.1 126.0 762.1 660.9 394.5 1,055.4

2024 650.7 131.7 782.3 678.7 412.1 1,090.9

2025 665.0 137.7 802.7 696.5 430.6 1,127.1

2026 679.9 143.8 823.7 715.7 449.8 1,165.5

2027 695.2 150.0 845.2 735.5 469.4 1,204.9

2028 710.2 156.5 866.7 755.4 489.5 1,244.9

2029 725.2 163.1 888.3 775.4 510.2 1,285.7

2030 740.9 170.2 911.1 796.1 532.0 1,328.1

2031 757.0 177.4 934.4 817.6 554.3 1,371.8

2032 773.1 184.8 957.9 839.2 577.3 1,416.5

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -1.3% 3.6% -0.7% 0.1% 2.6% 0.9%

2011-12 -0.3% 2.1% 0.0% -0.4% 2.4% 0.5%

2011-21 2.2% 4.0% 2.5% 2.4% 4.2% 3.0%

2011-32 2.2% 4.2% 2.5% 2.5% 4.3% 3.2%

*Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

92

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*

2000 688.3 490.0 71.2 238.0 181.0 76.0 926.2 670.9 72.4

2005 665.1 509.6 76.6 246.3 195.8 79.5 911.4 705.4 77.42006 648.7 513.9 79.2 258.9 206.8 79.9 907.6 720.7 79.42007 659.0 529.9 80.4 273.4 219.5 80.3 932.4 749.4 80.42008 650.2 521.3 80.2 290.1 231.9 80.0 940.3 753.3 80.12009 587.8 478.2 81.4 281.5 220.0 78.2 869.3 698.2 80.32010 581.5 480.7 82.7 279.4 229.6 82.2 860.9 710.3 82.52011E 594.8 497.0 83.6 298.2 240.3 80.6 893.0 737.4 82.6Forecast

2012 589.8 494.9 83.9 304.1 246.1 80.9 893.9 741.0 82.9

2013 599.3 506.0 84.4 314.6 254.8 81.0 913.9 760.9 83.32014 607.9 514.8 84.7 328.9 266.2 81.0 936.8 781.0 83.42015 631.7 536.2 84.9 342.9 277.6 81.0 974.5 813.9 83.52016 647.7 551.0 85.1 358.9 290.6 81.0 1,006.6 841.6 83.62017 662.5 564.5 85.2 375.3 304.0 81.0 1,037.8 868.5 83.72018 679.6 579.9 85.3 391.9 317.5 81.0 1,071.5 897.4 83.82019 696.5 595.1 85.4 409.2 331.6 81.0 1,105.7 926.7 83.82020 714.7 611.3 85.5 427.4 346.4 81.1 1,142.1 957.7 83.92021 732.5 627.1 85.6 446.1 361.7 81.1 1,178.6 988.8 83.92022 750.7 643.2 85.7 465.9 377.8 81.1 1,216.6 1,021.0 83.9

2023 770.8 660.9 85.7 486.5 394.5 81.1 1,257.3 1,055.4 83.9

2024 791.1 678.7 85.8 508.1 412.1 81.1 1,299.2 1,090.9 84.0

2025 811.3 696.5 85.9 530.8 430.6 81.1 1,342.1 1,127.1 84.0

2026 833.2 715.7 85.9 554.4 449.8 81.1 1,387.6 1,165.5 84.0

2027 855.9 735.5 85.9 578.4 469.4 81.1 1,434.3 1,204.9 84.0

2028 878.6 755.4 86.0 603.1 489.5 81.2 1,481.7 1,244.9 84.0

2029 901.6 775.4 86.0 628.6 510.2 81.2 1,530.1 1,285.7 84.0

2030 925.3 796.1 86.0 655.3 532.0 81.2 1,580.5 1,328.1 84.0

2031 949.8 817.6 86.1 682.6 554.3 81.2 1,632.5 1,371.8 84.0

2032 974.6 839.2 86.1 710.9 577.3 81.2 1,685.5 1,416.5 84.0

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% -0.3% 0.9% 1.2%

2011-12 -0.8% -0.4% 0.4% 2.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4%

2011-21 2.1% 2.4% 0.2% 4.1% 4.2% 0.1% 2.8% 3.0% 0.2%

2011-32 2.4% 2.5% 0.1% 4.2% 4.3% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 0.1%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

93

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

FISCALYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical*

2000 20.9 21.2 11.2 53.3

2005 21.6 29.3 13.2 64.2

2006 22.5 31.7 13.9 68.1

2007 24.1 34.2 13.6 71.9

2008 26.0 35.6 13.2 74.8

2009 24.7 34.3 12.0 71.0

2010 24.5 37.3 12.9 74.7

2011E 25.3 39.6 13.4 78.3

Forecast

2012 25.5 40.9 13.6 79.9

2013 26.2 42.5 13.7 82.4

2014 27.1 44.4 14.4 86.0

2015 27.9 46.4 15.2 89.5

2016 29.0 48.5 16.0 93.5

2017 30.1 50.6 16.8 97.5

2018 31.2 52.8 17.6 101.6

2019 32.3 55.3 18.3 106.0

2020 33.5 58.1 19.2 110.7

2021 34.7 60.8 20.0 115.5

2022 36.0 63.8 20.8 120.6

2023 37.2 67.0 21.7 126.0

2024 38.6 70.5 22.6 131.7

2025 40.0 74.2 23.5 137.7

2026 41.4 77.9 24.4 143.8

2027 42.9 81.7 25.4 150.0

2028 44.5 85.6 26.4 156.5

2029 46.0 89.7 27.4 163.1

2030 47.6 94.2 28.4 170.2

2031 49.2 98.7 29.5 177.4

2032 51.0 103.3 30.5 184.8

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 1.7% 5.8% 1.7% 3.6%

2011-12 0.7% 3.4% 1.1% 2.1%

2011-21 3.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0%

2011-32 3.4% 4.7% 4.0% 4.2%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 12

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

94

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*

2000 109.9 87.1 79.2 51.4 35.5 69.0 76.6 58.4 76.2 238.0 181.0 76.0

2005 108.6 89.5 82.4 65.4 47.2 72.2 72.3 59.2 81.8 246.3 195.8 79.5

2006 115.8 93.9 81.1 69.4 51.9 74.9 73.7 61.1 82.8 258.9 206.8 79.9

2007 126.6 102.2 80.7 72.7 55.9 76.9 74.1 61.4 82.9 273.4 219.5 80.3

2008 141.0 112.7 80.0 74.2 58.8 79.3 74.9 60.4 80.6 290.1 231.9 80.0

2009 138.2 108.9 78.9 73.5 56.4 76.8 69.9 54.7 78.3 281.5 220.0 78.2

2010 130.9 108.6 82.9 77.9 61.7 79.2 70.5 59.2 84.1 279.4 229.6 82.2

2011E 138.3 111.7 80.7 82.0 65.5 79.9 77.8 63.6 81.8 298.2 240.8 80.8

Forecast

2012 139.4 112.8 80.9 85.0 68.3 80.4 79.7 65.0 81.6 304.1 246.1 80.9

2013 143.9 116.5 81.0 88.9 71.5 80.4 81.9 66.8 81.6 314.6 254.8 81.0

2014 149.4 121.0 81.0 93.3 75.1 80.5 86.2 70.1 81.4 328.9 266.2 81.0

2015 154.8 125.4 81.0 97.8 78.7 80.5 90.3 73.5 81.4 342.9 277.6 81.0

2016 162.1 131.3 81.0 102.5 82.5 80.5 94.2 76.8 81.5 358.9 290.6 81.0

2017 169.9 137.6 81.0 107.4 86.4 80.5 98.1 79.9 81.5 375.3 304.0 81.0

2018 177.5 143.9 81.0 112.5 90.5 80.5 101.9 83.1 81.6 391.9 317.5 81.0

2019 185.3 150.2 81.0 118.2 95.1 80.5 105.8 86.3 81.6 409.2 331.6 81.0

2020 193.2 156.6 81.1 124.4 100.1 80.5 109.8 89.7 81.7 427.4 346.4 81.1

2021 201.8 163.5 81.1 130.6 105.1 80.5 113.8 93.0 81.7 446.1 361.7 81.1

2022 210.7 170.8 81.1 137.3 110.5 80.5 117.9 96.4 81.8 465.9 377.8 81.1

2023 219.8 178.2 81.1 144.6 116.4 80.5 122.1 99.9 81.8 486.5 394.5 81.1

2024 229.3 185.9 81.1 152.5 122.8 80.5 126.3 103.4 81.9 508.1 412.1 81.1

2025 239.4 194.1 81.1 160.8 129.4 80.5 130.7 107.1 81.9 530.8 430.6 81.1

2026 250.0 202.8 81.1 169.2 136.2 80.5 135.1 110.8 82.0 554.4 449.8 81.1

2027 261.1 211.8 81.1 177.7 143.0 80.5 139.6 114.5 82.0 578.4 469.4 81.1

2028 272.4 221.0 81.1 186.5 150.1 80.5 144.2 118.4 82.1 603.1 489.5 81.2

2029 283.9 230.4 81.1 195.8 157.6 80.5 148.9 122.3 82.1 628.6 510.2 81.2

2030 295.8 240.0 81.2 205.8 165.7 80.5 153.6 126.3 82.2 655.3 532.0 81.2

2031 308.1 250.1 81.2 216.0 173.9 80.5 158.5 130.3 82.2 682.6 554.3 81.2

2032 321.2 260.7 81.2 226.3 182.1 80.5 163.4 134.4 82.3 710.9 577.3 81.2

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 2.1% 2.3% 0.2% 4.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 2.1% 2.6% 0.6%

2011-12 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3.6% 4.2% 0.6% 2.5% 2.2% -0.2% 2.0% 2.2% 0.2%

2011-21 3.8% 3.9% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 4.1% 4.2% 0.0%

2011-32 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 4.2% 4.3% 0.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

95

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEM

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

Historical*

2000 148.8 233.7 179.5 307.8 236.6 164.5

2005 150.4 230.8 175.5 278.7 223.4 165.0

2006 150.5 229.4 175.2 274.4 221.4 165.7

2007 150.6 229.2 176.2 279.6 222.3 166.3

2008 150.3 229.2 177.3 292.3 224.9 167.5

2009 151.2 230.0 175.8 291.3 223.7 168.9

2010 151.9 231.7 171.5 287.2 220.9 169.0

2011E 152.3 230.5 172.3 282.9 220.7 169.9

Forecast

2012 152.4 231.0 172.8 283.7 221.0 170.4

2013 152.4 231.5 173.3 284.4 221.2 170.7

2014 152.5 232.0 173.8 285.2 221.8 171.3

2015 152.6 232.5 174.3 285.9 222.2 171.5

2016 152.7 233.0 174.8 286.7 222.8 172.0

2017 152.7 233.5 175.3 287.4 223.2 172.4

2018 152.8 234.0 175.8 288.2 223.7 172.8

2019 152.9 234.5 176.3 288.9 224.0 173.3

2020 153.0 235.0 176.8 289.7 224.4 173.6

2021 153.0 235.5 177.3 290.4 224.7 174.1

2022 153.1 236.0 177.8 291.2 225.1 174.5

2023 153.2 236.5 178.3 291.9 225.4 174.9

2024 153.3 237.0 178.8 292.7 225.6 175.2

2025 153.3 237.5 179.3 293.4 225.9 175.7

2026 153.4 238.0 179.8 294.2 226.2 176.0

2027 153.5 238.5 180.3 294.9 226.5 176.4

2028 153.6 239.0 180.8 295.7 226.8 176.8

2029 153.6 239.5 181.3 296.4 227.1 177.2

2030 153.7 240.0 181.8 297.2 227.4 177.6

2031 153.8 240.5 182.3 297.9 227.7 177.9

2032 153.9 241.0 182.8 298.7 228.0 178.3

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 14

INTERNATIONAL 

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

96

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*

2000 872.6 4,168.1 1,675.2 5,219.9 3,397.3 1,091.4

2005 981.5 4,133.1 1,611.1 4,466.1 3,051.2 1,201.1

2006 995.4 4,175.4 1,637.0 4,390.4 3,037.0 1,233.4

2007 992.8 4,247.8 1,634.3 4,515.1 3,054.2 1,237.2

2008 999.4 4,332.7 1,651.6 4,583.5 3,100.1 1,262.9

2009 1,003.0 4,402.4 1,645.6 4,549.9 3,097.6 1,274.6

2010 1,015.1 4,433.0 1,654.7 4,586.6 3,072.6 1,295.5

2011E 1,017.9 4,414.7 1,655.9 4,706.9 3,072.2 1,301.7

Forecast

2012 1,016.3 4,427.4 1,669.2 4,797.1 3,078.8 1,307.1

2013 1,017.6 4,440.3 1,682.7 4,893.3 3,093.2 1,312.6

2014 1,016.7 4,470.7 1,689.2 4,856.6 3,097.5 1,318.7

2015 1,015.4 4,499.9 1,695.7 4,822.3 3,100.5 1,317.7

2016 1,015.4 4,536.0 1,701.8 4,790.5 3,109.6 1,323.1

2017 1,016.4 4,572.7 1,707.7 4,761.4 3,118.2 1,330.3

2018 1,020.5 4,608.1 1,713.2 4,733.6 3,124.4 1,339.6

2019 1,023.6 4,642.8 1,718.5 4,706.2 3,127.4 1,348.1

2020 1,026.6 4,677.5 1,723.6 4,679.3 3,128.4 1,356.2

2021 1,030.7 4,713.0 1,728.3 4,653.5 3,131.3 1,365.9

2022 1,034.9 4,749.1 1,732.7 4,628.3 3,132.8 1,375.8

2023 1,039.0 4,784.4 1,736.9 4,603.6 3,131.8 1,384.9

2024 1,043.1 4,820.3 1,740.8 4,579.4 3,129.9 1,394.4

2025 1,047.3 4,856.9 1,744.5 4,555.4 3,128.4 1,404.2

2026 1,052.6 4,894.1 1,747.8 4,532.1 3,127.8 1,414.8

2027 1,058.0 4,931.3 1,750.9 4,509.3 3,128.2 1,425.5

2028 1,063.6 4,968.2 1,753.7 4,487.0 3,128.2 1,436.4

2029 1,069.3 5,004.9 1,756.3 4,465.0 3,127.4 1,447.3

2030 1,074.6 5,041.5 1,758.8 4,443.3 3,125.1 1,457.7

2031 1,080.0 5,078.3 1,761.0 4,422.1 3,123.6 1,468.1

2032 1,085.4 5,115.8 1,763.1 4,401.5 3,123.6 1,478.6

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 15

INTERNATIONAL 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

97

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*

2000 14.03 18.32 10.46 13.65 13.06 17.06

2005 11.45 13.19 10.87 12.53 11.29 13.01

2006 12.36 13.74 11.63 12.93 12.15 13.51

2007 12.45 13.52 12.45 13.53 12.45 13.52

2008 13.11 13.63 13.37 13.91 13.19 13.72

2009 11.95 12.47 11.68 12.18 11.87 12.38

2010 12.87 13.20 12.86 13.19 12.87 13.20

2011E 13.59 13.59 14.14 14.14 13.77 13.77

Forecast

2012 14.01 13.75 14.98 14.70 14.33 14.06

2013 14.28 13.77 15.44 14.88 14.67 14.14

2014 14.62 13.81 15.60 14.74 14.95 14.12

2015 14.93 13.82 15.77 14.60 15.22 14.08

2016 15.28 13.84 15.96 14.45 15.51 14.05

2017 15.56 13.80 16.13 14.30 15.76 13.98

2018 15.70 13.65 16.28 14.16 15.91 13.83

2019 15.85 13.53 16.43 14.02 16.06 13.71

2020 15.96 13.38 16.56 13.89 16.17 13.56

2021 16.06 13.22 16.69 13.75 16.29 13.42

2022 16.16 13.07 16.84 13.61 16.41 13.27

2023 16.25 12.91 16.97 13.48 16.52 13.12

2024 16.38 12.78 17.12 13.35 16.66 12.99

2025 16.53 12.65 17.27 13.22 16.81 12.87

2026 16.64 12.49 17.44 13.09 16.95 12.72

2027 16.74 12.33 17.60 12.96 17.08 12.58

2028 16.86 12.17 17.78 12.84 17.22 12.43

2029 16.98 12.02 17.96 12.71 17.37 12.29

2030 17.12 11.87 18.14 12.59 17.53 12.16

2031 17.26 11.73 18.34 12.46 17.69 12.03

2032 17.40 11.59 18.53 12.34 17.86 11.89

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -0.3% -2.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.5% -1.9%

2011-12 3.1% 1.2% 5.9% 3.9% 4.1% 2.1%

2011-21 1.7% -0.3% 1.7% -0.3% 1.7% -0.3%

2011-32 1.2% -0.8% 1.3% -0.6% 1.2% -0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

98

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*

2000 9.73 12.71 13.00 16.98 9.99 13.04 10.46 13.65

2005 10.75 12.38 12.16 14.01 10.04 11.57 10.87 12.53

2006 11.64 12.94 12.68 14.10 10.73 11.93 11.63 12.93

2007 12.46 13.53 13.37 14.52 11.61 12.61 12.45 13.53

2008 13.29 13.82 14.19 14.76 12.73 13.24 13.37 13.91

2009 11.25 11.73 12.99 13.55 11.20 11.68 11.68 12.18

2010 12.73 13.05 13.43 13.77 12.50 12.82 12.86 13.19

2011E 13.48 13.48 15.34 15.34 14.07 14.07 14.14 14.14

Forecast

2012 14.20 13.93 16.36 16.05 14.88 14.60 14.98 14.70

2013 14.47 13.95 16.97 16.36 15.49 14.93 15.44 14.88

2014 14.62 13.81 17.14 16.19 15.65 14.78 15.60 14.74

2015 14.77 13.67 17.32 16.03 15.81 14.63 15.77 14.60

2016 14.95 13.53 17.52 15.87 16.00 14.49 15.96 14.45

2017 15.10 13.40 17.71 15.71 16.17 14.34 16.13 14.30

2018 15.25 13.26 17.88 15.55 16.33 14.20 16.28 14.16

2019 15.39 13.13 18.04 15.40 16.47 14.06 16.43 14.02

2020 15.50 13.00 18.18 15.24 16.60 13.92 16.56 13.89

2021 15.63 12.87 18.32 15.09 16.73 13.78 16.69 13.75

2022 15.76 12.74 18.48 14.94 16.87 13.64 16.84 13.61

2023 15.88 12.61 18.62 14.79 17.00 13.50 16.97 13.48

2024 16.01 12.49 18.78 14.64 17.14 13.37 17.12 13.35

2025 16.15 12.36 18.94 14.50 17.29 13.24 17.27 13.22

2026 16.30 12.24 19.12 14.35 17.45 13.10 17.44 13.09

2027 16.46 12.12 19.30 14.21 17.62 12.97 17.60 12.96

2028 16.61 12.00 19.48 14.07 17.78 12.84 17.78 12.84

2029 16.78 11.88 19.67 13.93 17.96 12.71 17.96 12.71

2030 16.95 11.76 19.87 13.79 18.14 12.59 18.14 12.59

2031 17.12 11.64 20.08 13.65 18.33 12.46 18.34 12.46

2032 17.31 11.52 20.29 13.51 18.53 12.34 18.53 12.34

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 3.0% 0.5% 1.5% -0.9% 3.2% 0.7% 2.8% 0.3%

2011-12 5.3% 3.3% 6.6% 4.6% 5.8% 3.8% 5.9% 3.9%

2011-21 1.5% -0.5% 1.8% -0.2% 1.7% -0.2% 1.7% -0.3%

2011-32 1.2% -0.7% 1.3% -0.6% 1.3% -0.6% 1.3% -0.6%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

99

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $ CURRENT $ FY 2011 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical*

2000 71.49 93.36 79.35 103.63 73.57 96.08

2005 149.39 172.14 157.26 181.21 151.58 174.66

2006 194.69 216.43 204.69 227.54 197.72 219.80

2007 194.01 210.88 203.31 220.81 196.90 213.85

2008 292.64 304.22 314.57 327.11 299.74 311.69

2009 202.31 211.02 208.41 217.38 204.35 213.15

2010 219.19 224.79 220.06 225.70 219.49 225.09

2011E 274.41 274.41 271.77 271.77 273.44 273.44

Forecast

2012 299.72 294.10 296.84 291.27 298.66 293.06

2013 321.27 309.71 318.18 306.73 320.13 308.62

2014 333.12 314.62 329.91 311.59 331.94 313.51

2015 334.68 309.75 331.46 306.77 333.50 308.65

2016 343.96 311.48 340.65 308.49 342.74 310.38

2017 351.50 311.81 348.12 308.81 350.26 310.70

2018 356.37 309.92 352.94 306.94 355.11 308.83

2019 357.96 305.50 354.52 302.56 356.70 304.42

2020 353.09 296.10 349.70 293.25 351.85 295.06

2021 352.07 289.97 348.68 287.18 350.82 288.94

2022 352.07 284.72 348.69 281.98 350.83 283.71

2023 349.99 278.05 346.62 275.37 348.75 277.06

2024 353.79 275.93 350.39 273.28 352.54 274.96

2025 359.58 275.21 356.12 272.56 358.31 274.24

2026 365.99 274.76 362.47 272.12 364.70 273.79

2027 372.84 274.55 369.25 271.90 371.52 273.57

2028 381.76 275.68 378.09 273.02 380.41 274.70

2029 391.21 276.93 387.45 274.26 389.83 275.95

2030 400.80 278.05 396.94 275.38 399.38 277.07

2031 409.71 278.49 405.77 275.81 408.26 277.51

2032 418.54 278.67 414.51 275.99 417.06 277.68

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 13.0% 10.3% 11.8% 9.2% 12.7% 10.0%

2011-12 9.2% 7.2% 9.2% 7.2% 9.2% 7.2%

2011-21 2.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.6%

2011-32 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.1%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

100

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTALHistorical*

2000 10,283.5 7,573.1 17,856.6 4,415.2 7,784.6 12,199.9 14,698.7 15,357.8 30,056.5

2005 13,007.9 14,581.2 27,589.0 3,081.7 8,547.7 11,629.5 16,089.6 23,128.9 39,218.5

2006 12,481.2 15,475.2 27,956.4 3,229.4 8,483.5 11,712.8 15,710.5 23,958.7 39,669.2

2007 12,795.2 16,164.4 28,959.6 3,022.8 8,050.0 11,072.8 15,818.0 24,214.4 40,032.4

2008 12,257.7 15,587.4 27,845.1 2,152.9 9,027.0 11,179.9 14,410.5 24,614.4 39,025.0

2009 10,266.1 13,206.4 23,472.5 1,633.9 5,898.6 7,532.5 11,900.0 19,105.0 31,005.0

2010 11,212.3 15,966.6 27,179.0 1,620.9 7,128.0 8,748.9 12,833.2 23,094.6 35,927.9

2011E 10,550.7 17,437.1 27,987.8 1,497.7 7,766.2 9,263.9 12,048.4 25,203.3 37,251.7

Forecast

2012 10,277.3 18,906.4 29,183.6 1,445.4 8,302.7 9,748.1 11,722.7 27,209.0 38,931.7

2013 10,377.0 20,556.4 30,933.3 1,446.0 8,900.1 10,346.1 11,822.9 29,456.5 41,279.4

2014 10,931.5 22,425.9 33,357.4 1,509.1 9,571.9 11,081.0 12,440.6 31,997.8 44,438.4

2015 11,443.3 24,352.4 35,795.7 1,564.9 10,246.1 11,811.1 13,008.3 34,598.5 47,606.8

2016 11,761.1 26,236.6 37,997.7 1,593.2 10,880.7 12,473.9 13,354.3 37,117.3 50,471.6

2017 11,951.6 28,069.3 40,021.0 1,603.6 11,472.9 13,076.6 13,555.3 39,542.3 53,097.5

2018 12,058.0 29,912.9 41,970.8 1,602.4 12,049.1 13,651.5 13,660.4 41,962.0 55,622.4

2019 12,222.8 31,830.5 44,053.3 1,608.6 12,634.4 14,243.0 13,831.5 44,464.9 58,296.4

2020 12,448.3 33,818.5 46,266.8 1,622.4 13,226.4 14,848.8 14,070.7 47,044.9 61,115.6

2021 12,584.9 35,832.5 48,417.4 1,624.1 13,806.9 15,431.0 14,209.1 49,639.3 63,848.4

2022 12,771.9 37,933.2 50,705.2 1,632.0 14,398.8 16,030.8 14,403.9 52,332.1 66,736.0

2023 13,016.1 40,123.3 53,139.4 1,646.7 15,002.0 16,648.7 14,662.8 55,125.3 69,788.1

2024 13,277.0 42,394.6 55,671.6 1,662.8 15,612.1 17,275.0 14,939.8 58,006.7 72,946.6

2025 13,526.7 44,759.0 58,285.7 1,677.0 16,232.5 17,909.5 15,203.8 60,991.5 76,195.3

2026 13,765.5 47,206.8 60,972.4 1,689.3 16,858.3 18,547.6 15,454.8 64,065.2 79,520.0

2027 13,985.6 49,750.0 63,735.6 1,698.7 17,492.8 19,191.4 15,684.3 67,242.7 82,927.0

2028 14,188.6 52,377.8 66,566.4 1,705.5 18,130.8 19,836.3 15,894.0 70,508.6 86,402.7

2029 14,402.3 55,118.3 69,520.6 1,713.1 18,781.0 20,494.2 16,115.4 73,899.4 90,014.7

2030 14,676.1 58,006.1 72,682.2 1,727.3 19,453.5 21,180.8 16,403.4 77,459.6 93,863.0

2031 14,935.1 61,004.8 75,940.0 1,739.2 20,134.1 21,873.3 16,674.3 81,139.0 97,813.3

2032 15,158.5 64,087.6 79,246.1 1,746.3 20,812.8 22,559.1 16,904.8 84,900.4 101,805.2

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 0.2% 7.9% 4.2% -9.4% 0.0% -2.5% -1.8% 4.6% 2.0%

2011-12 -2.6% 8.4% 4.3% -3.5% 6.9% 5.2% -2.7% 8.0% 4.5%

2011-21 1.8% 7.5% 5.6% 0.8% 5.9% 5.2% 1.7% 7.0% 5.5%

2011-32 1.7% 6.4% 5.1% 0.7% 4.8% 4.3% 1.6% 6.0% 4.9%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

101

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC OTHER INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical*

2000 5,416.8 1,791.2 7,543.8 1,088.7 15,840.5

2005 6,006.7 1,884.1 9,059.1 6,180.2 23,130.0

2006 6,084.1 2,004.9 9,564.2 6,555.6 24,208.9

2007 6,124.7 2,304.2 9,497.3 6,763.5 24,689.7

2008 6,415.4 2,336.3 9,050.0 6,619.8 24,421.5

2009 5,740.1 1,793.4 6,855.4 4,711.2 19,100.2

2010 6,865.3 1,990.6 8,348.4 5,860.3 23,064.5

2011E 7,235.5 1,805.8 9,105.4 7,056.5 25,203.3

Forecast

2012 7,605.8 1,990.7 9,919.9 7,692.6 27,209.0

2013 8,041.8 2,176.1 10,758.4 8,480.2 29,456.5

2014 8,564.1 2,386.1 11,661.5 9,386.1 31,997.8

2015 9,111.9 2,596.5 12,577.5 10,312.6 34,598.5

2016 9,636.5 2,794.7 13,461.3 11,224.7 37,117.3

2017 10,142.7 2,978.0 14,306.9 12,114.7 39,542.3

2018 10,647.6 3,155.7 15,149.6 13,009.0 41,962.0

2019 11,174.9 3,338.5 16,021.2 13,930.2 44,464.9

2020 11,724.5 3,524.3 16,919.9 14,876.1 47,044.9

2021 12,279.0 3,705.7 17,821.8 15,832.8 49,639.3

2022 12,861.9 3,897.8 18,761.1 16,811.3 52,332.1

2023 13,478.7 4,101.8 19,731.2 17,813.6 55,125.3

2024 14,120.7 4,314.9 20,733.3 18,837.8 58,006.7

2025 14,785.8 4,535.4 21,778.7 19,891.6 60,991.5

2026 15,474.0 4,763.9 22,859.9 20,967.5 64,065.2

2027 16,187.4 4,999.3 23,984.5 22,071.5 67,242.7

2028 16,925.4 5,242.4 25,143.7 23,197.2 70,508.6

2029 17,693.5 5,498.1 26,354.8 24,353.0 73,899.4

2030 18,509.3 5,772.9 27,630.6 25,546.8 77,459.6

2031 19,356.7 6,058.1 28,955.4 26,768.7 81,139.0

2032 20,228.1 6,351.4 30,311.9 28,009.0 84,900.4

Avg. Annual Growth2000-11 2.7% 0.1% 1.7% 18.5% 4.3%

2011-12 5.1% 10.2% 8.9% 9.0% 8.0%2011-21 5.4% 7.5% 6.9% 8.4% 7.0%2011-32 5.0% 6.2% 5.9% 6.8% 6.0%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

102

TABLE 21

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTAL

YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETS

Historical

2000 3,364 385 0 3,749 424 169 120 713 4,462 26 4,488

2005 3,308 37 0 3,345 466 29 54 549 3,894 12 3,906

2006 3,302 26 0 3,328 463 19 49 531 3,859 39 3,898

2007 3,354 29 0 3,383 477 12 47 536 3,919 64 3,983

2008 3,170 10 1 3,181 470 9 44 523 3,704 91 3,795

2009 3,109 9 2 3,120 447 9 42 498 3,618 92 3,710

2010 3,127 10 1 3,138 471 9 43 523 3,661 90 3,751

2011E 3,112 9 1 3,122 476 7 41 524 3,646 93 3,739

Forecast

2012 3,004 9 1 3,014 495 5 41 541 3,555 97 3,652

2013 3,011 9 1 3,021 515 3 41 559 3,580 102 3,682

2014 3,034 9 1 3,044 533 1 41 575 3,619 110 3,729

2015 3,088 9 1 3,098 555 0 41 596 3,694 117 3,811

2016 3,139 9 1 3,149 594 0 37 631 3,780 125 3,905

2017 3,171 6 1 3,178 617 0 20 637 3,815 133 3,948

2018 3,226 6 1 3,233 649 0 13 662 3,895 137 4,032

2019 3,297 5 1 3,303 681 0 11 692 3,995 127 4,122

2020 3,351 4 1 3,356 708 0 9 717 4,073 127 4,200

2021 3,419 4 0 3,423 737 0 7 744 4,167 127 4,294

2022 3,482 3 0 3,485 763 0 5 768 4,253 127 4,380

2023 3,569 1 0 3,570 795 0 2 797 4,367 128 4,495

2024 3,639 1 0 3,640 821 0 0 821 4,461 128 4,589

2025 3,724 0 0 3,724 853 0 0 853 4,577 128 4,705

2026 3,795 0 0 3,795 878 0 0 878 4,673 125 4,798

2027 3,870 0 0 3,870 914 0 0 914 4,784 120 4,904

2028 3,989 0 0 3,989 939 0 0 939 4,928 115 5,043

2029 4,060 0 0 4,060 983 0 0 983 5,043 110 5,153

2030 4,145 0 0 4,145 1,026 0 0 1,026 5,171 105 5,276

2031 4,240 0 0 4,240 1,064 0 0 1,064 5,304 100 5,404

2032 4,325 0 0 4,325 1,103 0 0 1,103 5,428 100 5,528

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -0.7% -28.9% N/A -1.7% 1.1% -25.1% -9.8% -2.8% -1.8% 12.3% -1.6%

2011-12 -3.5% 0.0% 0.0% -3.5% 4.0% -28.6% 0.0% 3.2% -2.5% 4.3% -2.3%

2011-21 0.9% -7.8% -100.0% 0.9% 4.5% -100.0% -16.2% 3.6% 1.3% 3.2% 1.4%

2011-32 1.6% -100.0% -100.0% 1.6% 4.1% -100.0% -100.0% 3.6% 1.9% 0.3% 1.9%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

103

TABLE 22

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical

2000 166 332 176 674 164 158 68 390 1,064

2005 164 233 90 487 246 193 75 514 1,001

2006 162 220 78 460 264 208 80 552 1,012

2007 162 162 75 399 276 213 86 575 974

2008 161 143 68 372 276 215 97 588 960

2009 160 104 33 297 253 209 82 544 841

2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2011E 175 94 27 296 281 204 98 583 879

Forecast

2012 178 91 27 296 290 204 98 592 888

2013 188 79 23 290 297 207 100 604 894

2014 198 67 18 283 310 207 101 618 901

2015 209 56 14 279 339 205 103 647 926

2016 221 43 12 276 356 199 102 657 933

2017 231 26 10 267 373 194 104 671 938

2018 246 13 8 267 392 188 104 684 951

2019 266 7 5 278 411 185 105 701 979

2020 281 5 3 289 430 180 105 715 1,004

2021 294 3 1 298 449 176 107 732 1,030

2022 308 2 0 310 464 171 106 741 1,051

2023 321 0 0 321 482 168 109 759 1,080

2024 335 0 0 335 502 159 112 773 1,108

2025 345 0 0 345 523 152 115 790 1,135

2026 357 0 0 357 541 145 118 804 1,161

2027 369 0 0 369 556 147 118 821 1,190

2028 381 0 0 381 568 147 121 836 1,217

2029 391 0 0 391 582 149 125 856 1,247

2030 404 0 0 404 596 150 128 874 1,278

2031 415 0 0 415 614 152 132 898 1,313

2032 427 0 0 427 631 152 135 918 1,345

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 0.5% -10.8% -15.7% -7.2% 5.0% 2.4% 3.4% 3.7% -1.7%

2011-12 1.7% -3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0%

2011-21 5.3% -29.1% -28.1% 0.1% 4.8% -1.5% 0.9% 2.3% 1.6%

2011-32 4.3% -100.0% -100.0% 1.8% 3.9% -1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

104

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FISCAL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1 GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL

YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMED

Historical*

2000 15,030 5,484 20,513 972 21,485 2 333 335 21,3502005 14,221 6,059 20,281 1,527 21,807 2 295 297 22,1042006 13,775 6,186 19,961 1,643 21,603 2 283 285 21,8892007 13,882 6,309 20,191 1,486 21,676 2 274 276 21,9522008 13,397 6,499 19,896 1,706 21,602 2 248 250 21,8522009 11,896 6,033 17,929 1,447 19,376 2 227 229 19,6062010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,9212011E 12,036 6,547 18,583 1,433 20,017 2 215 217 20,233Forecast22012 11,764 6,579 18,343 1,651 19,994 2 210 212 20,2072013 11,763 6,705 18,468 1,747 20,215 2 208 210 20,4252014 11,778 6,904 18,682 1,836 20,518 2 207 209 20,7272015 12,081 7,092 19,173 1,918 21,091 2 205 207 21,2982016 12,230 7,312 19,543 1,992 21,534 2 203 205 21,7392017 12,344 7,533 19,877 2,058 21,936 2 203 205 22,1412018 12,491 7,749 20,240 2,132 22,371 2 203 205 22,5762019 12,628 7,972 20,600 2,198 22,798 2 203 205 23,0032020 12,786 8,203 20,989 2,268 23,257 2 203 205 23,4622021 12,929 8,435 21,364 2,327 23,691 2 202 204 23,8942022 13,074 8,678 21,752 2,395 24,147 2 203 205 24,3512023 13,245 8,926 22,171 2,468 24,638 2 204 206 24,8442024 13,412 9,185 22,597 2,543 25,140 2 206 208 25,3482025 13,572 9,453 23,025 2,624 25,649 2 207 209 25,8582026 13,755 9,725 23,480 2,696 26,176 2 209 211 26,3862027 13,944 9,996 23,940 2,770 26,710 2 211 213 26,9232028 14,125 10,268 24,393 2,850 27,244 2 214 216 27,4592029 14,303 10,543 24,846 2,940 27,787 2 216 218 28,0042030 14,487 10,828 25,315 3,034 28,349 2 218 220 28,5692031 14,677 11,113 25,790 3,130 28,920 2 220 222 29,1422032 14,863 11,401 26,265 3,230 29,495 2 223 225 29,720Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -2.0% 1.6% -0.9% 3.6% -0.6% 0.0% -3.9% -3.9% -0.5%2011-12 -2.3% 0.5% -1.3% 15.2% -0.1% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -0.1%2011-21 0.7% 2.6% 1.4% 5.0% 1.7% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 1.7%2011-32 1.0% 2.7% 1.7% 3.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8%* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.5% annual improvement in ASMs/Gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

105

REVENUE PER

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM CURRENT $ 2011$YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*2000 38.4 41.8 38.5 286.5 260.0 285.5 30.28 39.002005 48.6 52.4 48.7 434.7 434.2 434.7 19.70 22.702006 49.3 52.2 49.4 450.4 467.2 450.7 19.84 22.062007 49.9 54.0 50.0 451.5 518.1 452.9 19.95 21.672008 52.9 53.4 53.0 460.8 532.7 462.3 21.04 21.882009 55.2 52.8 55.1 456.9 512.3 457.8 17.04 17.782010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464.3 502.9 465.0 15.64 16.042011E 56.4 53.5 56.3 468.3 530.2 469.2 15.68 15.68Forecast

2012 56.9 53.8 56.8 470.0 535.2 470.9 16.14 15.832013 57.3 54.1 57.3 474.0 540.2 475.0 16.44 15.852014 57.8 54.4 57.7 476.1 545.2 477.1 16.83 15.892015 58.2 54.7 58.2 478.4 550.2 479.4 17.19 15.912016 58.7 55.0 58.6 482.2 555.2 483.3 17.58 15.922017 59.1 55.3 59.1 486.1 560.2 487.1 17.91 15.892018 59.6 55.6 59.5 490.0 565.2 491.0 18.07 15.712019 60.1 55.9 60.0 493.9 570.2 495.0 18.24 15.572020 60.5 56.2 60.4 498.8 575.2 499.9 18.36 15.402021 61.0 56.5 60.9 503.8 580.2 504.9 18.48 15.222022 61.5 56.8 61.4 508.8 585.2 509.9 18.60 15.042023 61.9 57.1 61.9 513.9 590.2 515.0 18.70 14.852024 62.4 57.4 62.3 519.1 595.2 520.2 18.85 14.702025 62.9 57.7 62.8 524.3 600.2 525.4 19.02 14.562026 63.4 58.0 63.3 530.5 605.2 531.6 19.15 14.372027 63.9 58.3 63.8 536.9 610.2 538.0 19.27 14.192028 64.4 58.6 64.3 543.4 615.2 544.4 19.40 14.012029 64.9 58.9 64.8 549.9 620.2 550.9 19.54 13.832030 65.4 59.2 65.3 556.5 625.2 557.5 19.70 13.672031 65.9 59.5 65.8 563.2 630.2 564.1 19.87 13.502032 66.4 59.8 66.3 569.9 635.2 570.9 20.04 13.34

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 3.5% 2.3% 3.5% 4.6% 6.7% 4.6% -5.8% -8.0%2011-12 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 2.9% 1.0%

2011-21 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% -0.3%

2011-32 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% -0.8%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.

TABLE 24

PASSENGER MILE**

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

106

(In Millions)

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*2000 79.7 3.1 82.8 22,825 814 23,639

2005 146.4 3.3 149.7 63,654 1,417 65,071

2006 152.2 3.5 155.7 68,532 1,634 70,166

2007 156.2 3.4 159.6 70,528 1,772 72,300

2008 159.1 3.5 162.6 73,305 1,867 75,172

2009 154.0 2.5 156.6 70,374 1,304 71,678

2010 161.6 2.7 164.3 75,053 1,347 76,400

2011E 161.3 2.4 163.6 75,510 1,260 76,770

Forecast

2012 162.4 2.4 164.8 76,337 1,281 77,618

2013 163.5 2.4 165.9 77,491 1,301 78,792

2014 167.4 2.5 169.9 79,722 1,345 81,068

2015 175.5 2.6 178.1 83,973 1,423 85,396

2016 181.3 2.7 183.9 87,405 1,483 88,888

2017 186.0 2.7 188.7 90,408 1,535 91,943

2018 190.8 2.8 193.6 93,494 1,589 95,083

2019 195.7 2.9 198.6 96,668 1,645 98,312

2020 201.0 3.0 204.0 100,256 1,704 101,959

2021 205.9 3.0 209.0 103,741 1,760 105,502

2022 211.0 3.1 214.1 107,371 1,820 109,191

2023 216.6 3.2 219.8 111,333 1,884 113,217

2024 222.3 3.3 225.5 115,375 1,949 117,324

2025 227.9 3.4 231.3 119,476 2,016 121,491

2026 233.7 3.4 237.2 124,014 2,085 126,099

2027 239.8 3.5 243.3 128,727 2,156 130,882

2028 245.7 3.6 249.3 133,511 2,227 135,739

2029 251.7 3.7 255.4 138,411 2,300 140,712

2030 258.0 3.8 261.8 143,564 2,377 145,941

2031 264.5 3.9 268.4 148,941 2,456 151,397

2032 271.0 4.0 275.0 154,452 2,537 156,988

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 6.6% -2.5% 6.4% 11.5% 4.1% 11.3%

2011-12 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7% 1.1%

2011-21 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%

2011-32 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

107

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR

Historical*2000 38,332 22,825 59.5 1,338 814 60.8 39,670 23,639 59.6

2005 90,028 63,654 70.7 2,213 1,417 64.0 92,240 65,071 70.5

2006 91,458 68,532 74.9 2,387 1,634 68.5 93,845 70,166 74.8

2007 93,452 70,528 75.5 2,550 1,772 69.5 96,002 72,300 75.3

2008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.6

2009 94,664 70,374 74.3 1,859 1,304 70.2 96,523 71,678 74.3

2010 98,489 75,053 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,346 76,400 76.1

2011E 99,062 75,510 76.2 1,802 1,260 69.9 100,864 76,770 76.1

Forecast

2012 98,571 76,337 77.4 1,819 1,281 70.4 100,391 77,618 77.3

2013 99,353 77,491 78.0 1,835 1,301 70.9 101,189 78,792 77.9

2014 102,159 79,722 78.0 1,884 1,345 71.4 104,043 81,068 77.9

2015 107,552 83,973 78.1 1,979 1,423 71.9 109,531 85,396 78.0

2016 111,895 87,405 78.1 2,048 1,483 72.4 113,943 88,888 78.0

2017 115,688 90,408 78.1 2,106 1,535 72.9 117,794 91,943 78.1

2018 119,587 93,494 78.2 2,165 1,589 73.4 121,752 95,083 78.1

2019 123,599 96,668 78.2 2,225 1,645 73.9 125,825 98,312 78.1

2020 128,140 100,256 78.2 2,289 1,704 74.4 130,429 101,959 78.2

2021 132,549 103,741 78.3 2,350 1,760 74.9 134,899 105,502 78.22022 137,142 107,371 78.3 2,413 1,820 75.4 139,555 109,191 78.22023 142,159 111,333 78.3 2,482 1,884 75.9 144,641 113,217 78.32024 147,277 115,375 78.3 2,551 1,949 76.4 149,828 117,324 78.32025 152,469 119,476 78.4 2,621 2,016 76.9 155,090 121,491 78.32026 158,220 124,014 78.4 2,702 2,085 77.2 160,921 126,099 78.42027 164,191 128,727 78.4 2,785 2,156 77.4 166,976 130,882 78.42028 170,253 133,511 78.4 2,868 2,227 77.7 173,122 135,739 78.42029 176,461 138,411 78.4 2,953 2,300 77.9 179,414 140,712 78.42030 182,991 143,564 78.5 3,047 2,377 78.0 186,038 145,941 78.42031 189,805 148,941 78.5 3,144 2,456 78.1 192,950 151,397 78.52032 196,789 154,452 78.5 3,243 2,537 78.2 200,033 156,988 78.5Avg Annual Growth2000-11 9.0% 11.5% 2.3% 2.7% 4.1% 1.3% 8.9% 11.3% 2.3%

2011-12 -0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% -0.5% 1.1% 1.6%

2011-21 3.0% 3.2% 0.3% 2.7% 3.4% 0.7% 3.0% 3.2% 0.3%

2011-32 3.3% 3.5% 0.1% 2.8% 3.4% 0.5% 3.3% 3.5% 0.1%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

108

TABLE 27

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEETJANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical*2000 470 343 262 474 74 548 155 496 651 1,704 570 2,274

2005 449 220 99 253 96 349 81 1,581 1,662 1,102 1,677 2,7792006 453 204 88 224 92 316 87 1,584 1,671 1,056 1,676 2,7322007 453 172 79 228 91 319 101 1,656 1,757 1,033 1,747 2,780

2008 451 107 68 180 25 205 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,755 2,682

2009 466 103 65 153 29 182 115 1,722 1,837 902 1,751 2,653

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2011E 481 94 67 113 21 134 105 1,686 1,791 860 1,707 2,567

Forecast

2012 457 86 63 113 6 119 112 1,711 1,823 831 1,717 2,548

2013 430 84 61 112 6 118 118 1,746 1,864 805 1,752 2,557

2014 399 81 59 110 3 113 128 1,806 1,934 777 1,809 2,586

2015 372 78 57 108 0 108 139 1,860 1,999 754 1,860 2,614

2016 327 75 55 106 0 106 150 1,835 1,985 713 1,835 2,548

2017 317 72 52 105 0 105 160 1,836 1,996 706 1,836 2,542

2018 307 69 50 103 0 103 171 1,839 2,010 700 1,839 2,539

2019 296 66 48 100 0 100 184 1,832 2,016 694 1,832 2,526

2020 286 63 46 98 0 98 195 1,832 2,027 688 1,832 2,520

2021 274 60 44 94 0 94 205 1,837 2,042 677 1,837 2,514

2022 260 57 42 89 0 89 216 1,841 2,057 664 1,841 2,505

2023 248 54 40 85 0 85 226 1,852 2,078 653 1,852 2,505

2024 237 52 38 81 0 81 235 1,867 2,102 643 1,867 2,510

2025 223 49 36 76 0 76 246 1,905 2,151 630 1,905 2,535

2026 210 46 34 72 0 72 257 1,959 2,216 619 1,959 2,578

2027 201 44 32 69 0 69 266 2,024 2,290 612 2,024 2,636

2028 188 41 30 65 0 65 276 2,097 2,373 600 2,097 2,697

2029 177 39 28 61 0 61 287 2,172 2,459 592 2,172 2,764

2030 165 36 26 57 0 57 297 2,250 2,547 581 2,250 2,831

2031 155 34 25 53 0 53 307 2,335 2,642 574 2,335 2,909

2032 143 31 23 49 0 49 318 2,416 2,734 564 2,416 2,980

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 0.2% -11.1% -11.7% -12.2% -10.8% -12.0% -3.5% 11.8% 9.6% -6.0% 10.5% 1.1%

2011-12 -5.0% -8.5% -6.0% 0.0% -71.4% -11.2% 6.7% 1.5% 1.8% -3.4% 0.6% -0.7%

2011-21 -5.5% -4.4% -4.1% -1.8% -100.0% -3.5% 6.9% 0.9% 1.3% -2.4% 0.7% -0.2%

2011-32 -5.6% -5.1% -5.0% -3.9% -100.0% -4.7% 5.4% 1.7% 2.0% -2.0% 1.7% 0.7%

*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

109

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

AS OF SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL 

DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL AIRCRAFT OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*

2000 149,422 21,091 170,513 5,762 7,001 12,763 2,680 4,470 7,150 20,407 NA 6,700 217,533 173,193 17,233

2005 148,101 19,412 167,513 7,942 9,823 17,765 3,039 5,689 8,728 23,627 170 6,454 224,257 170,552 23,454

2006 145,036 18,708 163,744 8,063 10,379 18,442 3,264 5,895 9,159 23,047 1,273 6,277 221,942 167,008 24,337

2007 147,569 19,337 166,906 9,514 10,385 19,899 2,769 6,798 9,567 23,228 6,066 5,940 231,606 169,675 26,697

2008 145,497 17,515 163,012 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,664 166,510 26,327

2009 140,649 16,474 157,123 9,055 11,268 20,323 3,499 6,485 9,984 24,419 6,547 5,480 223,876 160,622 26,808

2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2011E 138,560 15,810 154,370 9,430 11,760 21,190 3,685 6,725 10,410 24,225 6,645 5,680 222,520 158,055 27,915

Forecast2012 137,600 15,735 153,335 9,505 12,050 21,555 3,780 6,940 10,720 24,480 6,930 5,670 222,690 157,115 28,495

2013 136,650 15,660 152,310 9,570 12,410 21,980 3,875 7,165 11,040 24,810 7,180 5,665 222,985 156,185 29,145

2014 135,790 15,615 151,405 9,645 12,835 22,480 3,975 7,415 11,390 25,170 7,365 5,655 223,465 155,380 29,895

2015 135,010 15,570 150,580 9,720 13,340 23,060 4,075 7,675 11,750 25,500 7,530 5,650 224,070 154,655 30,735

2016 134,285 15,500 149,785 9,795 13,880 23,675 4,165 7,930 12,095 25,835 7,690 5,640 224,720 153,950 31,6052017 133,650 15,425 149,075 9,870 14,470 24,340 4,250 8,180 12,430 26,165 7,845 5,635 225,490 153,325 32,520

2018 133,090 15,340 148,430 9,950 15,060 25,010 4,335 8,435 12,770 26,500 8,000 5,630 226,340 152,765 33,445

2019 132,645 15,260 147,905 10,030 15,650 25,680 4,420 8,685 13,105 26,830 8,160 5,625 227,305 152,325 34,365

2020 132,335 15,175 147,510 10,120 16,265 26,385 4,505 8,940 13,445 27,160 8,315 5,615 228,430 152,015 35,325

2021 132,125 15,090 147,215 10,205 16,915 27,120 4,590 9,200 13,790 27,490 8,470 5,610 229,695 151,805 36,3202022 132,010 15,010 147,020 10,300 17,620 27,920 4,680 9,465 14,145 27,825 8,630 5,605 231,145 151,700 37,385

2023 131,975 14,935 146,910 10,400 18,370 28,770 4,775 9,745 14,520 28,155 8,785 5,600 232,740 151,685 38,515

2024 132,015 14,875 146,890 10,515 19,170 29,685 4,875 10,040 14,915 28,490 8,940 5,590 234,510 151,765 39,725

2025 132,150 14,815 146,965 10,625 20,020 30,645 4,975 10,345 15,320 28,820 9,100 5,585 236,435 151,940 40,990

2026 132,370 14,745 147,115 10,740 20,865 31,605 5,075 10,650 15,725 29,150 9,255 5,580 238,430 152,190 42,2552027 132,660 14,680 147,340 10,860 21,760 32,620 5,180 10,965 16,145 29,480 9,410 5,575 240,570 152,520 43,585

2028 133,020 14,610 147,630 10,975 22,700 33,675 5,285 11,275 16,560 29,815 9,570 5,570 242,820 152,915 44,950

2029 133,470 14,540 148,010 11,090 23,690 34,780 5,390 11,590 16,980 30,145 9,725 5,560 245,200 153,400 46,370

2030 134,000 14,470 148,470 11,205 24,730 35,935 5,495 11,905 17,400 30,480 9,880 5,555 247,720 153,965 47,840

2031 134,625 14,405 149,030 11,320 25,805 37,125 5,600 12,225 17,825 30,810 10,040 5,550 250,380 154,630 49,350

2032 135,340 14,350 149,690 11,445 26,935 38,380 5,705 12,550 18,255 31,140 10,195 5,545 253,205 155,395 50,930

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -0.7% -2.6% -0.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% 2.9% 3.8% 3.5% 1.6% NA -1.5% 0.2% -0.8% 4.5%

2011-12 -0.7% -0.5% -0.7% 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 2.6% 3.2% 3.0% 1.1% 4.3% -0.2% 0.1% -0.6% 2.1%2011-21 -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% 0.8% 3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 3.2% 2.9% 1.3% 2.5% -0.1% 0.3% -0.4% 2.7%2011-32 -0.1% -0.5% -0.1% 0.9% 4.0% 2.9% 2.1% 3.0% 2.7% 1.2% 2.1% -0.1% 0.6% -0.1% 2.9%* Source: 2000-2010, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

110

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

CALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL 

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL AIRCRAFT OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*

2000 18,089 3,400 21,489 1,986 2,755 4,741 530 1,661 2,191 1,307 NA 374 30,102 22,019 6,402

2005 13,739 2,677 16,416 2,106 3,771 5,877 617 2,439 3,056 1,339 9 267 26,964 17,032 8,316

2006 13,976 2,550 16,525 2,162 4,077 6,240 918 2,528 3,446 1,218 66 211 27,705 17,443 8,767

2007 13,571 2,686 16,257 2,661 3,938 6,600 704 2,541 3,245 1,275 260 215 27,852 16,962 9,141

2008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,527

2009 11,730 1,903 13,634 2,215 3,161 5,376 755 2,248 3,003 1,286 286 178 23,763 14,389 7,624

2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2011E 11,841 1,780 13,621 2,324 3,394 5,718 789 2,561 3,350 1,211 317 181 24,397 14,410 8,279

Forecast

2012 11,391 1,776 13,167 2,409 4,037 6,445 812 2,550 3,362 1,236 337 182 24,728 13,978 8,996

2013 11,091 1,758 12,849 2,471 4,330 6,801 834 2,611 3,445 1,315 356 183 24,949 13,683 9,413

2014 10,820 1,744 12,564 2,523 4,605 7,128 858 2,674 3,532 1,401 372 183 25,180 13,422 9,802

2015 10,594 1,728 12,322 2,554 4,865 7,419 881 2,739 3,620 1,462 388 184 25,396 13,204 10,158

2016 10,409 1,703 12,112 2,591 5,106 7,697 903 2,819 3,722 1,525 404 185 25,645 13,015 10,516

2017 10,285 1,689 11,974 2,624 5,321 7,945 924 2,903 3,827 1,591 421 185 25,943 12,898 10,848

2018 10,205 1,678 11,882 2,657 5,558 8,215 944 2,988 3,932 1,627 438 186 26,281 12,827 11,203

2019 10,150 1,668 11,817 2,685 5,774 8,459 965 3,071 4,036 1,664 455 187 26,619 12,782 11,530

2020 10,125 1,667 11,792 2,704 6,009 8,713 986 3,156 4,142 1,702 473 188 27,009 12,777 11,868

2021 10,092 1,665 11,758 2,723 6,251 8,975 1,006 3,242 4,248 1,731 487 188 27,387 12,764 12,216

2022 10,124 1,667 11,790 2,745 6,516 9,261 1,028 3,336 4,364 1,761 501 189 27,866 12,819 12,597

2023 10,159 1,668 11,827 2,762 6,802 9,564 1,051 3,431 4,482 1,791 515 190 28,368 12,878 12,995

2024 10,247 1,673 11,920 2,782 7,102 9,884 1,075 3,531 4,606 1,821 530 190 28,951 12,995 13,415

2025 10,391 1,675 12,066 2,802 7,420 10,222 1,099 3,636 4,736 1,851 544 191 29,610 13,165 13,858

2026 10,545 1,684 12,229 2,822 7,726 10,548 1,124 3,742 4,866 1,882 559 192 30,276 13,353 14,290

2027 10,708 1,696 12,404 2,841 8,044 10,885 1,149 3,852 5,001 1,913 574 193 30,970 13,553 14,737

2028 10,866 1,709 12,574 2,859 8,381 11,239 1,174 3,963 5,137 1,944 590 193 31,678 13,749 15,202

2029 10,997 1,719 12,717 2,879 8,753 11,632 1,200 4,076 5,275 1,975 605 194 32,398 13,916 15,707

2030 11,145 1,729 12,874 2,897 9,149 12,046 1,225 4,191 5,416 2,007 621 195 33,159 14,099 16,237

2031 11,300 1,743 13,044 2,912 9,557 12,469 1,250 4,313 5,563 2,039 637 196 33,948 14,294 16,782

2032 11,467 1,760 13,227 2,930 9,987 12,917 1,275 4,438 5,714 2,071 654 197 34,779 14,502 17,355

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -3.8% -5.7% -4.1% 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% -0.7% NA -6.4% -1.9% -3.8% 2.4%2011-12 -3.8% -0.2% -3.3% 3.6% 18.9% 12.7% 2.8% -0.4% 0.4% 2.1% 6.3% 0.4% 1.4% -3.0% 8.7%

2011-21 -1.6% -0.7% -1.5% 1.6% 6.3% 4.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 3.6% 4.4% 0.4% 1.2% -1.2% 4.0%

2011-32 -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 1.1% 5.3% 4.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 3.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.0% 3.6%

* Source: 2000-2010, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

111

TABLE 30

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER TOTAL LESS RATED DEC. 31 STUDENTS TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY PILOTS AT PILOTS PILOTS1

Historical*2000 93,064 340 N/A 251,561 121,858 141,596 7,775 9,387 625,581 483,985 311,944

2005 87,213 278 134 228,619 120,614 141,992 9,518 21,369 609,737 467,745 311,500

2006 84,866 239 939 219,233 117,610 141,935 10,690 21,597 597,109 455,174 309,333

2007 84,339 239 2,031 211,096 115,127 143,953 12,290 21,274 590,349 446,396 309,865

2008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,247

2009 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,495

2010 119,119 2 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,001

2011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,122Forecast

2012 117,340 230 4,800 193,000 119,200 142,500 15,225 21,165 613,460 470,960 312,5502013 116,140 230 5,550 192,200 114,250 143,100 15,365 21,200 608,035 464,935 312,1002014 115,050 230 5,850 191,300 118,600 143,700 15,630 21,220 611,580 467,880 312,3002015 114,115 230 6,150 190,550 118,950 144,500 16,000 21,260 611,755 467,255 312,9502016 113,335 230 6,500 189,800 119,000 145,200 16,445 21,275 611,785 466,585 313,8502017 112,765 230 6,850 189,250 119,050 145,900 16,955 21,315 612,315 466,415 314,9002018 112,370 230 7,200 188,850 119,200 146,600 17,550 21,350 613,350 466,750 316,0502019 112,105 230 7,600 188,750 119,450 147,400 18,150 21,390 615,075 467,675 317,2502020 111,950 230 8,000 188,800 119,750 148,100 18,800 21,405 617,035 468,935 318,5002021 111,820 225 8,400 189,100 120,150 148,900 19,450 21,445 619,490 470,590 319,7502022 111,860 225 8,800 189,600 120,650 149,800 20,100 21,480 622,515 472,715 321,1502023 111,960 225 9,200 190,300 121,250 150,700 20,800 21,520 625,955 475,255 322,6502024 112,225 225 9,650 191,250 122,000 151,600 21,550 21,535 630,035 478,435 324,2002025 112,685 225 10,100 192,250 122,750 152,600 22,300 21,570 634,480 481,880 325,8502026 113,230 220 10,600 193,250 123,550 153,600 23,100 21,610 639,160 485,560 327,6002027 113,830 220 11,100 194,300 124,450 154,700 23,900 21,645 644,145 489,445 329,4002028 114,430 220 11,600 195,400 125,450 155,700 24,750 21,680 649,230 493,530 331,2502029 114,965 220 12,150 196,300 126,500 156,800 25,600 21,700 654,235 497,435 333,2002030 115,520 220 12,700 197,350 127,600 158,000 26,450 21,735 659,575 501,575 335,3002031 116,100 220 13,300 198,250 128,800 159,100 27,350 21,770 664,890 505,790 337,4502032 116,720 220 13,900 199,300 130,100 160,300 28,250 21,805 670,595 510,295 339,700Avg Annual Growth2000-11 2.2% -3.6% NA -2.3% -0.1% 0.1% 6.3% 7.7% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1%

2011-12 -1.1% 1.3% 18.1% -0.7% -1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%2011-21 -0.6% -0.1% 7.5% -0.3% -0.1% 0.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.2%

2011-32 -0.1% -0.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months.  This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

112

TABLE 31

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON EXPERICALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO- ROTORCRAFT MENTAL/ JET

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER SPORT AVGAS FUEL TOTAL

Historical*

2000 200.8 108.4 176.3 736.7 8.4 59.0 15.2 NA 332.8 972.0 1,304.8

2005 173.1 89.7 196.1 1,181.3 14.6 149.2 17.7 0.0 295.0 1,526.7 1,821.7

2006 164.9 79.9 190.1 1,303.9 16.7 148.6 21.6 0.3 283.4 1,642.6 1,926.0

2007 157.6 83.0 205.2 1,148.0 9.3 132.4 22.6 1.2 273.6 1,485.6 1,759.2

2008 143.0 69.5 230.4 1,313.2 10.7 162.1 23.3 1.5 248.1 1,705.7 1,953.8

2009 132.3 57.1 208.7 1,104.6 10.7 133.6 25.8 1.4 227.4 1,447.0 1,674.4

2010 133.1 53.9 187.1 1,122.9 10.7 124.8 21.6 1.5 220.7 1,434.8 1,655.6

2011E 129.0 52.4 188.0 1,123.6 10.5 121.8 21.3 1.5 214.8 1,433.4 1,648.1

Forecast

2012 124.1 52.3 194.9 1,336.3 10.7 120.1 21.7 1.6 210.5 1,651.2 1,861.7

2013 120.8 51.8 197.9 1,426.3 11.0 122.3 23.1 1.7 208.4 1,746.5 1,954.9

2014 117.9 51.7 202.1 1,509.2 11.2 124.7 24.5 1.7 207.0 1,835.9 2,042.9

2015 114.8 51.2 204.5 1,586.6 11.5 127.0 25.6 1.8 205.0 1,918.2 2,123.1

2016 112.8 50.2 205.4 1,656.7 11.8 129.4 26.6 1.9 203.3 1,991.6 2,194.8

2017 111.5 49.8 208.1 1,717.8 12.1 132.6 27.7 1.9 203.0 2,058.5 2,261.5

2018 110.6 49.4 210.7 1,785.3 12.4 135.8 28.4 2.0 202.8 2,131.9 2,334.7

2019 110.0 49.1 212.9 1,845.6 12.6 139.6 29.0 2.1 202.9 2,198.1 2,401.0

2020 109.2 49.1 213.3 1,911.0 12.9 143.5 29.7 2.2 203.1 2,267.8 2,470.8

2021 107.7 48.6 212.7 1,968.1 13.1 145.9 29.9 2.2 201.5 2,326.7 2,528.3

2022 108.1 48.6 214.4 2,031.0 13.4 149.4 30.4 2.3 202.8 2,394.8 2,597.5

2023 108.4 48.7 215.8 2,098.9 13.7 152.9 30.9 2.4 204.1 2,467.5 2,671.6

2024 109.4 48.8 217.3 2,169.5 14.0 156.5 31.4 2.4 206.0 2,543.4 2,749.4

2025 109.8 48.9 218.9 2,244.0 14.3 161.2 31.9 2.5 207.4 2,624.0 2,831.5

2026 110.3 49.1 218.2 2,313.4 14.6 164.2 32.1 2.5 208.7 2,695.8 2,904.5

2027 111.5 49.5 217.5 2,384.3 14.9 168.2 32.7 2.6 211.1 2,770.1 2,981.2

2028 112.6 49.9 218.8 2,459.4 15.2 172.2 33.2 2.7 213.5 2,850.4 3,063.9

2029 113.3 50.2 220.4 2,542.8 15.6 177.1 33.7 2.7 215.5 2,940.3 3,155.8

2030 114.3 50.5 221.7 2,631.5 15.9 180.3 34.3 2.8 217.7 3,033.5 3,251.3

2031 115.3 50.9 223.0 2,721.3 16.2 185.5 34.8 2.9 220.1 3,129.7 3,349.8

2032 116.4 51.3 224.3 2,815.2 16.5 190.9 35.4 3.0 222.6 3,230.4 3,453.1

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -3.9% -6.4% 0.6% 3.9% 2.1% 6.8% 3.1% n/a -3.9% 3.6% 2.1%

2011-12 -3.8% -0.2% 3.6% 18.9% 1.8% -1.4% 2.1% 5.8% -2.0% 15.2% 13.0%

2011-21 -1.8% -0.8% 1.2% 5.8% 2.2% 1.8% 3.4% 4.1% -0.6% 5.0% 4.4%

2011-32 -0.5% -0.1% 0.8% 4.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 3.3% 0.2% 3.9% 3.6%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED TURBINE

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012

-2032

113

TABLE 32

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERSYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical*

2000 15,158.7 10,760.5 22,844.1 17,034.4 39,878.5 1,439.8 1,448.2 2,888.0 68,685.7 266 1922005 13,533.6 12,550.5 19,303.2 14,843.6 34,146.8 1,414.5 1,449.2 2,863.7 63,094.6 264 2292006 13,256.3 11,967.6 18,707.1 14,365.4 33,072.5 1,358.4 1,417.3 2,775.7 61,072.1 263 2312007 13,611.2 11,667.3 18,575.2 14,556.8 33,132.0 1,313.9 1,405.7 2,719.5 61,130.0 264 2352008 13,780.1 11,032.1 17,492.7 14,081.2 31,573.8 1,285.0 1,245.6 2,530.6 58,916.6 264 2392009 12,836.4 9,520.8 15,571.1 12,448.0 28,019.0 1,305.2 1,280.4 2,585.5 52,961.7 264 244

2010 12,657.6 9,410.4 14,863.9 11,716.3 26,580.1 1,309.0 1,297.9 2,606.9 51,255.0 264 244

2011E 12,866.0 9,278.5 14,527.9 11,437.0 25,964.9 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,739.8 264 248

Forecast

2012 12,887.3 9,217.2 14,235.6 11,155.6 25,391.2 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,126.0 264 248

2013 13,180.5 9,349.2 14,290.8 11,208.9 25,499.7 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,659.6 264 248

2014 13,547.8 9,549.9 14,347.6 11,262.6 25,610.2 1,318.9 1,311.3 2,630.2 51,338.1 264 248

2015 13,924.2 9,745.6 14,403.9 11,316.8 25,720.7 1,318.9 1,311.3 2,630.2 52,020.7 264 248

2016 14,286.7 9,935.1 14,460.7 11,371.4 25,832.1 1,318.9 1,311.3 2,630.2 52,684.1 264 248

2017 14,565.3 10,087.1 14,518.0 11,426.5 25,944.5 1,318.9 1,311.3 2,630.2 53,227.0 264 2482018 14,849.6 10,242.4 14,575.8 11,482.2 26,058.0 1,318.9 1,311.3 2,630.1 53,780.1 264 2482019 15,137.8 10,397.6 14,634.2 11,538.5 26,172.7 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.1 54,338.2 264 2482020 15,432.3 10,556.1 14,693.1 11,595.2 26,288.3 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.1 54,906.7 264 2482021 15,733.3 10,717.9 14,752.5 11,652.5 26,405.0 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.0 55,486.3 264 2482022 16,037.1 10,883.1 14,812.5 11,710.4 26,522.9 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.0 56,073.1 264 2482023 16,347.8 11,051.8 14,873.0 11,768.9 26,641.9 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.0 56,671.4 264 2482024 16,665.6 11,224.1 14,934.0 11,827.9 26,761.9 1,318.8 1,311.2 2,630.0 57,281.6 264 2482025 16,990.8 11,400.0 14,995.7 11,887.5 26,883.2 1,318.7 1,311.2 2,629.9 57,903.9 264 2482026 17,323.5 11,579.7 15,057.9 11,947.6 27,005.5 1,318.7 1,311.2 2,629.9 58,538.6 264 2482027 17,663.9 11,763.3 15,120.7 12,008.4 27,129.1 1,318.7 1,311.2 2,629.9 59,186.1 264 2482028 18,012.2 11,950.8 15,184.1 12,069.8 27,253.9 1,318.7 1,311.2 2,629.9 59,846.8 264 2482029 18,368.7 12,142.3 15,248.2 12,131.8 27,380.0 1,318.7 1,311.2 2,629.8 60,520.8 264 2482030 18,733.6 12,338.0 15,312.8 12,194.4 27,507.2 1,318.6 1,311.2 2,629.8 61,208.6 264 2482031 19,107.1 12,538.0 15,378.0 12,257.6 27,635.6 1,318.6 1,311.2 2,629.8 61,910.5 264 2482032 19,489.7 12,742.3 15,443.9 12,321.5 27,765.4 1,318.6 1,311.1 2,629.8 62,627.2 264 248Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -1.5% -1.3% -4.0% -3.6% -3.8% -0.8% -0.9% -0.8% -2.7%

2011-12 0.2% -0.7% -2.0% -2.5% -2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2%2011-21 2.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2011-32 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

114

TABLE 33

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*

2000 16,395.0 11,197.7 20,799.2 3,466.9 51,858.8

2005 14,123.4 12,751.1 17,388.9 2,798.7 47,062.1

2006 13,963.3 12,035.7 17,005.3 2,669.9 45,674.2

2007 14,366.0 11,675.8 16,747.4 2,498.7 45,288.0

2008 14,443.0 11,048.3 15,763.0 2,399.5 43,653.8

2009 13,302.3 9,622.8 14,151.1 2,398.8 39,474.9

2010 13,174.3 9,511.3 13,863.6 2,437.5 38,986.7

2011E 13,068.0 9,349.4 13,503.1 2,374.6 38,295.2

Forecast

2012 13,088.0 9,241.5 13,128.7 2,370.3 37,828.5

2013 13,387.7 9,373.8 13,182.7 2,370.2 38,314.4

2014 13,763.2 9,584.5 13,236.4 2,370.2 38,954.2

2015 14,148.0 9,791.2 13,288.7 2,370.1 39,598.0

2016 14,518.4 9,991.0 13,341.4 2,370.1 40,220.8

2017 14,802.9 10,150.0 13,394.5 2,370.0 40,717.5

2018 15,093.3 10,312.7 13,448.0 2,370.0 41,224.0

2019 15,387.7 10,474.7 13,502.0 2,369.9 41,734.3

2020 15,688.5 10,640.1 13,556.4 2,369.9 42,254.9

2021 15,996.0 10,809.1 13,611.3 2,369.8 42,786.2

2022 16,306.2 10,981.7 13,666.6 2,369.8 43,324.2

2023 16,623.3 11,158.0 13,722.4 2,369.7 43,873.4

2024 16,947.7 11,338.1 13,778.6 2,369.7 44,434.1

2025 17,279.5 11,522.2 13,835.3 2,369.6 45,006.6

2026 17,619.0 11,710.3 13,892.5 2,369.5 45,591.3

2027 17,966.1 11,902.5 13,950.1 2,369.5 46,188.1

2028 18,321.2 12,098.9 14,008.2 2,369.4 46,797.7

2029 18,684.4 12,299.7 14,066.8 2,369.4 47,420.3

2030 19,055.9 12,504.9 14,125.9 2,369.3 48,056.0

2031 19,435.9 12,714.7 14,185.5 2,369.3 48,705.4

2032 19,824.9 12,929.1 14,245.7 2,369.2 49,368.9

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -2.0% -1.6% -3.9% -3.4% -2.7%

2011-12 0.2% -1.2% -2.8% -0.2% -1.2%2011-21 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1%2011-32 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2032

115

TABLE 34

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical*

2000 24,987.0 8,100.9 8,744.3 4,192.5 46,024.82005 25,004.6 10,053.9 8,367.7 4,052.0 47,478.1

2006 24,394.5 9,436.7 8,197.0 4,149.7 46,177.82007 25,006.2 9,652.9 8,294.3 3,803.3 46,756.72008 23,895.3 10,179.0 7,670.7 3,649.2 45,394.1

2009 22,406.8 8,561.8 6,331.8 2,993.0 40,293.52010 22,341.5 8,623.8 6,550.3 2,982.2 40,497.82011E 23,431.7 9,010.4 6,557.3 2,227.6 41,227.1Forecast

2012 23,539.4 8,944.8 6,468.3 2,227.6 41,180.02013 24,218.4 9,108.6 6,483.0 2,227.6 42,037.62014 24,970.5 9,298.9 6,542.4 2,227.6 43,039.32015 25,815.1 9,509.8 6,611.1 2,227.6 44,163.62016 26,610.7 9,731.9 6,685.6 2,227.6 45,255.82017 27,281.6 9,906.1 6,727.8 2,227.6 46,143.12018 27,949.6 10,075.0 6,772.3 2,227.6 47,024.6

2019 28,636.0 10,247.0 6,816.4 2,227.6 47,927.0

2020 29,329.3 10,424.6 6,863.4 2,227.6 48,844.8

2021 30,042.4 10,616.6 6,914.2 2,227.6 49,800.8

2022 30,765.2 10,808.8 6,965.9 2,227.6 50,767.5

2023 31,510.0 11,005.8 7,020.8 2,227.6 51,764.3

2024 32,275.0 11,206.9 7,079.3 2,227.6 52,788.8

2025 33,060.2 11,415.5 7,141.5 2,227.6 53,844.7

2026 33,867.8 11,628.8 7,207.5 2,227.6 54,931.7

2027 34,699.2 11,847.2 7,277.7 2,227.6 56,051.8

2028 35,548.8 12,077.0 7,352.1 2,227.6 57,205.5

2029 36,423.5 12,312.4 7,430.9 2,227.6 58,394.5

2030 37,324.0 12,553.7 7,514.3 2,227.6 59,619.6

2031 38,251.3 12,801.0 7,602.5 2,227.6 60,882.5

2032 39,206.3 13,054.7 7,695.7 2,227.6 62,184.3

Avg Annual Growth2000-11 -0.6% 1.0% -2.6% -5.6% -1.0%2011-12 0.5% -0.7% -1.4% 0.0% -0.1%2011-21 2.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9%2011-32 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 2.0%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS