FAA Aerospace 

Forecast

Fiscal Years 

2010-2030

Administration

Federal Aviation

U.S. Department of Transportation 

Federal Aviation Administration 

Aviation Policy and Plans

1

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

MESSAGE FROM THE ADMINISTRATOR

This year’s forecast confirms what we already know: Aviation is a business subject to highly volatile and 

unpredictable external influences. Whether it is the economy, the global political climate or environmental 

concerns, our industry is affected at every level. The good news is that aviation has shown time and time 

again that it can adapt and meet those challenges while continuing to provide safe, efficient transportation. 

This year’s forecast anticipates that these challenges will remain for at least 20 more years. But it also 

shows our confidence this industry will not only face these challenges head on, but will thrive. 

Aviation has been especially hard hit by the turbulence that has rocked our economy. As the economy 

dipped, airline demand fell sharply. Airlines have tightened their belts, passengers have modified 

their traveling habits, and our airports have had to adapt. But, economic growth will return along with 

passengers and increasing operations. We expect to see changes in the industry as it rebounds over the 

next several years, with international markets growing faster than domestic markets, and large airports 

growing faster than smaller ones. We also expect the trend toward larger regional jets to continue while 

most of the smaller regional jets will be retired from the fleet. 

For the remainder of 2010, we expect that last year’s trends will continue before the industry turns the 

corner. But we do expect growth in the longer-term. For the short-term, we will continue to see declines 

in both domestic and international capacity as carriers respond to the impacts of the economic downturn. 

The airlines will continue to make adjustments to fleets and operations to match changing demand.

Although we find the industry dealing with issues no one would have predicted a decade ago, we also 

know those issues are here to stay, along with possibly new, unknown challenges. All of us in the industry 

must learn how to do business in this uncertain world. Factors such as oil price volatility, economic 

uncertainty, congestion concerns, security demands, and environmental issues are not going away. 

This forecast will help the FAA and the aviation industry prepare for the future. In spite of the uncertain 

world in which we find ourselves, we know that a robust aviation industry is key to economic recovery and 

future continued growth. We will be ready.

Randy Babbitt

Administrator
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE OF CONTENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE

Forecast Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Review of 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

U.S. Economic Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

World Economic Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Commercial Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

World Travel Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

U.S. Travel Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Commercial Air Carriers - Passenger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Commercial Air Carriers - Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Financial Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

FAA Workload. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010 - 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Economic Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

World Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Aviation Traffic and Activity forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Commercial Aviation Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Domestic Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

International Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Air Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Commercial Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

FAA Workload Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

FAA and Contract Towers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

En Route Centers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

UNmanned Aircraft Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Commercial Space Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Risks to the Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Appendix A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Appendix B: Forecast Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Appendix C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

2010-2030

Aviation will continue to grow over the long term, despite current global economic conditions. Since 2000, 

U.S. airlines have dealt with the impacts of 9/11, the bankruptcy of four network carriers, record high fuel 

prices, the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression, and heightened concerns about a 

pandemic that turned into reality in 2009. In spite of these challenges, the number of passengers traveling 

continues to grow over the long term, demonstrating the value of air transportation to the public. There has 

been a slowdown in air travel growth, and the FAA now calls for one billion passengers to be flown in 2023, 

pushed back from last year’s 2021. 

The 2010 forecast for commercial aviation calls for lackluster activity in the near term, with a return to 

growth over the long term. The level of activity and demand in the long term, however, is not expected 

to snap back to levels published in the previous FAA forecast. The most significant factor preventing 

recovery to prior forecast levels is the blow to the economy from the Great Recession. The recession led 

to an erosion of wealth, double-digit unemployment, declining corporate travel budgets, and close-fisted 

consumers, all of which contributed to a softening of demand for air travel. A bright spot is on the horizon, 

though. After four straight quarters of decline, the U.S. economy resumed growth in the fourth quarter of 

2009, albeit driven by government stimulus packages that are winding down.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both 

domestically and internationally – will drop 1.6 percent this year, after posting a 7.4 percent decrease 

during 2009, and then grow at an average of 3.6 percent per year through 2030. In the domestic market, 

capacity drops 1.1 percent in 2010, after posting the largest percentage decline in ASMs (down 8.9 percent 

in FY 2009) since deregulation of the industry. Domestic mainline carrier capacity will decline 1.6 percent 

(marking the third straight year of declines). For the regional carriers, domestic capacity will grow 1.9 

percent from 2009 levels – resuming growth after shrinking in 2009 for the first time since deregulation. 

Commercial air carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to grow 0.4 percent in 

2010, and then grow at an average of 3.2 percent per year through 2030; enplanements in 2010 will grow 

0.4 percent for the year, and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent for the remainder of the 

forecast.

Following previous downturns (e.g. the recessions in 1991 and 2001) carriers stimulated passenger demand 

by reducing fares sharply. The industry’s initial response to the current economic downturn was to modestly 

cut fares and to better match supply (seats) and demand (passengers). It quickly became apparent that 

dramatic (not modest) cuts in fares would be the only way to stimulate passenger demand, and carriers 

responded with multiple sales throughout the year. In addition, to help minimize losses, carriers also reduced 

flying to hold the line on costs. With no evidence of pent up demand, we do not anticipate a return to 

previously forecasted passenger levels even when recovery takes hold.

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to decline by 0.3 seats in FY 2010 to 121.6 seats. 

Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to fall by 0.8 seats as network carriers1

 

1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, and US Airways (although Delta 

Airlines and Northwest Airlines merged, the carriers continued to report separate operating results through 2009 since they held separate 

operating certificates).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

6

continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase, 

we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, increasing the average regional aircraft size 

in 2010 by 1.2 seats to 56.2 seats per mile. Passenger trip length in domestic markets will remain relatively 

flat, decreasing by 0.7 miles. 

The downturn in the economy has dampened the near-term prospects for the general aviation industry, but 

the long-term outlook remains favorable. We see growth in business aviation demand over the long term 

driven by a growing U.S. and world economy. As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours 

flown is projected to increase an average of 2.5 percent a year through 2030.

The shaky global economy that took hold in the latter part of 2008 is expected to continue its squeeze 

on air travel demand through 2010. Profitability for U.S. carriers will hinge on the return of demand for 

corporate air travel, the ability to pass along fare increases to leisure travelers, and a stable environment 

for fuel prices. To navigate the volatile operating environment, mainline carriers will continue to drive 

down their costs by better matching flight frequencies and/or aircraft gauge with demand, delaying 

deliveries of newer aircraft and/or grounding older aircraft, and pressuring regional affiliates to accept 

lower fees for contract flying. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable industry 

characterized by increasing demand for air travel and air fares growing more slowly than inflation.
7

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

REVIEW OF 2009

Each passing month of 2009 saw the light on consumer confidence dim as housing foreclosures climbed, 

credit tightened, and unemployment surged. This chain of events led to listless demand for air travel during 

the year as corporate travel budgets were slashed and consumer spending dried up. In 20092

 system 

revenue passenger miles (RPMs) decreased 7.1 percent as enplanements fell 7.3 percent. Commercial 

air carrier domestic enplanements were down 7.3 percent while international enplanements fell 6.6 

percent. The system-wide load factor increased 0.2 points to 79.7 percent. Domestic enplanement market 

share for low-cost and regional carriers grew in 2009 while network and “other” carrier share decreased. 

Enplanement market share for the network carriers shrank 1.5 points to 47.6 percent while market share 

for “other” carriers shrank 0.5 points to 1.4 percent. Low cost carrier3

 share rose 0.9 points to 26.6 percent 

and regional carrier market share rose 1.0 points to 24.4 percent. 

System wide real yield dropped 9.8 percent during 2009 as the Great Recession led to reduction in demand 

for premium travel and carriers executed fare sales throughout the year to stimulate demand for leisure 

travel. In spite of the economic environment, the commercial air carrier industry posted an operating profit 

in 2009. Carrier operating losses during the first half of the year were replaced by operating profits during 

the second half for total operating profits of $755 million for the year (compared to a $2.0 billion operating 

loss posted for 2008). The network carriers reported operating losses for the three of the four quarters to 

total losses of $1.7 billion for the year. All six of the network carriers posted losses for the year, while eight 

out of nine of the low cost carriers posted operating profits. The net loss for U.S. commercial air carriers 

in 2009 was $8.1 billion, with the network, low cost, “other” and cargo carriers posting net losses of $7.6 

billion, $145.6 million, $296.0 million, and $331.2 million, respectively. The regional carriers posted a net 

profit of $202.3 million.

The market for general aviation products and services declined sharply in 2009. U.S. manufacturer 

shipments declined for the 2nd year in a row, a whopping 48.5 percent decrease, while billings fell 32.1 

percent compared to 2008. Single engine piston aircraft shipments fell 54.6 percent while turbine jet 

aircraft shipments decreased by 46.2 percent. The decline in shipments and billings seen in the jet fleet 

was a direct reflection of the downturn in the U.S. and world economy. Along with the fall in shipments and 

billings, general aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports fell 11.7 percent in 2009.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers fell 10.4 percent to their lowest levels since 1982 as activity 

declined in all user categories. Although the number of flights fell, FAA’s workload didn’t. As the fleet 

mix changes with increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, and as carriers 

consolidate operations in their large hubs, the complexity of activity in the airspace continues to grow, 

increasing our workload. 

2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are on a fiscal year (FY) basis 

(October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international economic and world traffic and financial data are on a 

calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.

3 Allegiant Air, AirTran Airways, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, USA3000, and Virgin America Airlines.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

8

U.S. Economic Activity

In FY 2009, the U.S. economy experienced the worst recession in the post war era. After growing 1.9 

percent in FY 2008, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 2.9 percent in fiscal year 2009. The 

story during the first part of the year was the sharp decline in output that accompanied the financial crisis 

brought on by the Lehman Bros bankruptcy in September 2008. Real GDP contracted 5.4 percent in the 

first quarter followed by an even steeper 6.4 percent contraction in the second quarter. As the economic 

downturn gathered momentum, the new Administration and Congress passed the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act (ARRA) in February 2009. The bill which included a combination of individual tax cuts, 

investment incentives, aid to people directly hurt by the recession, state fiscal relief, and direct government 

investment spending was estimated to have a total fiscal impact of $787 billion. While there has been 

significant debate about the effectiveness of ARRA, data show that the freefall in economic activity 

began to temper during the 3Q as output fell by just 0.7 percent. In the 4Q, buoyed by a variety of rebate 

programs (most notably “cash for clunkers”) the U.S. economy grew for first time in five quarters, with 

output increasing by 2.2 percent. 

One of the most obvious impacts of the recession was the rise in the nation’s unemployment rate. In 

December 2007 when the recession began, the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. As the recession 

intensified the unemployment rate rose and reached 7.4 percent in December 2008. The rate continued 

to rise throughout 2009 and stood at 9.8 percent in September 2009. All told from the beginning of the 

recession through the end of FY 2009, approximately 6.9 million jobs have been lost.

U.S. GRO SS DO M ESTIC PRODUCT

SEASONALLY ADJ USTED ANNUAL GROW TH

FY 2008 AND 2009 BY QUART ER

(0.7 )

(6 .4)

2.2

1.5

(0 .7 )

(2 .7)

(5.4 )

2.1

-7 .0

-6 .0

-5 .0

-4 .0

-3 .0

-2 .0

-1 .0

0 .0

1 .0

2 .0

3 .0

20 07 -0 4 2 00 8-01 20 08 -0 2 2 00 8-03 20 08 -0 4 200 9-0 1 2 009 -02 20 09-0 3

F isca l Y ear 2 008 F iscal Y ear 200 9

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
9

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Another impact of the recession was the falling demand for oil and resulting lower oil prices. Oil prices, 

as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, fell by 45.4 percent in FY 2009 to $55.46. But, as in 

FY 2008, the average price for the year fails to tell the whole story. Oil prices, which averaged $98.91 in 

September 2008, fell rapidly through January 2009, down to $37.45, then recovered back to $65.71 by June 

and remained in the mid $60 range for the balance of the fiscal year, averaging $67.74 in September 2009.

The combination of falling demand and falling energy prices resulted in the consumer price index (CPI) 

declining by 0.3 percent in FY 2009, the first decline in the CPI since 1955. The 0.3 percent fall in the CPI in 

FY 2009 was 4.7 percentage points lower than in FY 2008. 

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

9.8 9.7 9.4 9.5

4.8 5.0 5.4 5.0 5.5

5.8 6.1 6.2

6.6 6.9

5.0

7.4 7.7

8.2

8.6 8.9

9.4

5.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09

PCT UNEMPLOYE

D

U.S. REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01

$ PER BARREL
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

10

World Economic Activity

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S continues to have a prominent role in world economic growth. The 

slowdown that began in the U.S. in 2008 spread to all corners of the globe by the end of the year and led to 

the worst performance in the global economy since the Great Depression. In calendar year 2009, the world 

economy shrank by an estimated 2.4 percent as the advanced economies (U.S., Western Europe, Japan, 

Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) contracted 3.3 percent. Most regions saw their economies shrink but 

data coming out at the end of the year suggested that recovery had begun in most parts of the world with 

China and the U.S. leading the way.

On a calendar year basis, GDP in Canada contracted at the same rate of the U.S. in 2009, falling 2.5 

percent. The combined economies of the Asian and Far East nations grew just 1.2 percent in 2009, down 

from 3.5 percent a year earlier. This region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (down 

5.3 percent), and the world’s most vibrant economy, China (up 8.5 percent). The combined economies 

of Europe were hit particularly hard by the downturn with the economies of Western Europe shrinking 3.9 

percent while the combined economies of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union contracted 6.1 

percent. GDP in Latin America fell 2.1 percent with Brazil up just 0.2 percent while Mexico shrank by 7.5 

percent as the U.S. recession resulted in sharp economic downturn in Mexico.

Commercial Aviation

Commercial aviation suffered through a terrible year in 2009. Despite falling jet fuel prices, the downturn 

in passenger demand as a result of the global recession hurt the industry. Coming off of a year of record 

losses in 2008, the U.S. industry posted a smaller net loss in 2009, with a similar outcome predicted for 

foreign carriers. With the U.S., Europe and Japan in recession, global industry net losses for calendar year 

2009 are expected to be $11.0 billion, with large losses in all global regions4

. Although U.S. airlines had 

implemented large capacity reductions at the end of 2008, the downturn in demand resulted in a loss of 

pricing power and fares fell sharply in 2009.

4 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2009.

U.S. AND WORLD GDP

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009

3.6

2.7

(2.5)

2.5

0.4

3.1

2.1 1.8 2.0

4.0

3.6

(2.4)

4.1 3.9

1.8

2.7

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

U.S. World

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
11

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air carriers recorded their 

“worst-ever” performance in CY 2009, reflecting the first contraction of the global economy since the Great 

Depression of 1929. Although traffic results are not available for full year 2009, ICAO estimates that worldwide 

RPKs decreased 3.1 percent. In comparison world passenger traffic declined 2.9 percent during 20015

.

Statistics from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) show that passengers decreased 5.8 percent 

and RPKs decreased 4.5 percent for CY 2009. Capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (ASKs), 

was down 4.2 percent during the same time period. Data available through CY 2009 show that AEA carrier 

traffic was strongest in the Middle-East (up 6.1 percent), followed by the North Africa (up 4.5 percent), and 

Sub Saharan Africa regions (up 1.2 percent). Traffic in the North Atlantic region was down 5.6 percent. 

WORLD PASSENGER DEMAND

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009

-0.4

-4 .1

14 .1

1 .8

1 1.7

6 .4 7 .1

-0.1

5 .3

3.2

-3 .1

6.7 5 .9

8.0

0 .5 1.8

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 20 06 2007 2008 200 9E

Pas sengers RPKs

Source: 2009 World Estimate – ICAO, December 2009 ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

EUROPEAN CARRIERS CAPACITY AND TRAFFIC

CALENDAR YEAR 2009

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

ASKS RPKS

Sour ce: Associa tion of E uropean Air lines (AEA) % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR

5 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2009.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

12

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a decrease of 6.5 percent in RPKs on a 6.1 percent 

decrease in ASKs in CY 2009. Passengers were down 5.7 percent during the same period.

In CY 2009, U.S. and foreign flag carriers will transport an estimated 147.1 million passengers between the 

United States and the rest of the world, a 4.7 percent decrease from 2008. Year-over-year growth declined 

in all world markets with the Pacific market posting the largest decline (down 6.4 percent) followed by the 

Canadian transborder market (down 5.9%), the Latin America market (down 4.3 percent), and the Atlantic 

market (down 3.9 percent). 

Worldwide air cargo demand plummeted in 2009 as world trade volumes fell due to the global 

economic downturn.6 According to ICAO, worldwide freight tonne kilometers fell 15.0 percent in 2009 

compared to a drop of 1.2 percent in 2008. AEA member carriers FTK’s were down 16.5 percent for 

the year while AAPA member carriers FTKs were down 11.0 percent for the same period.

6 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2009.

TOTAL PASSENGERS TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009

4 3.4 4 4.6 4 8.9 4 9.9 4 9.8 5 3.3 5 7.1 5 4.9

3 6.9 3 9.1 4 2.7 4 4.2 4 7.1 4 8.6 4 9.8 4 7.6

2 2.3 2 0.2

2 3.8 2 5.1 25.6 26.3 25.8 24.1 1 7.6 16.9

18.5 19.7 21.0 21.5 21.4 20.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2 002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Atlantic L. America Pacific Canada

Millions of Passengers

ASIA PACIFIC CARRIERS CAPACITY AND TRAFFIC

CALENDAR YEAR 2009

-18.0

-15.0

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

ASKS RPKS

Sour ce: Association of Asia P acific Air lines (AAPA) % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR
13

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports world air carriers (including U.S. airlines) are 

expected to register an operating loss of $3.7 billion for 2009. Falling yields due to reduced demand 

combined with an upward trend in fuel prices led to deteriorating financial results for CY 2009, with 

IATA estimating global airline industry net losses to be $11.0 billion for the year. Based on financial data 

compiled by ICAO between 2001 and 2008 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of $20.5 

billion (with four years out of eight posting gains) and net losses of $41.8 billion (with two years out of eight 

posting gains).7

WORLD AIR CARGO DEMAND

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009

-3.1

5.0 5.9

2.5

-13.1

9.6 9.0

6.7

-15.0

4.7

-1.2

4.5

7.2 5.8

2.5

10.2

-16.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tonnes RTKS

Sour ce: RTKs, T onnes – ICAO ; 2009 Tonnes est. IATA, Dec 2009 ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

WORLD AIR CARRIER PROFIT/LOSS

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009

$ 19.7

-$5.6 -$4.1 -$3.7 -$4.8

$15.0

-$1 .4

$3 .3 $4 .3

-$3.8

-$16.8

$ 3.6

-$ 11.3 -$11.0

-$ 7.5

$1 2.9

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Operating Net

Source: 2009 World Estimate: IATA, December 2009; 2002-2008 ICAO BILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS

7 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2009.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

14

U.S. Travel Demand

By year end FY 2009, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 18 scheduled mainline air carriers 

that use large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 66 regional carriers that use smaller piston, turboprop, 

and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline 

and regional carriers provide domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign 

destinations, although regional carrier international service is confined to border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. There were no carriers that either started or ceased operations during 2009; 

however Republic airlines acquired Midwest Airlines in June 2009 and Frontier Airlines (and its wholly 

owned subsidiary Lynx Aviation) during August 2009. Twenty-seven all-cargo carriers were providing 

domestic and/or international air cargo service at the end 2009.

Three distinct trends have occurred over the past several years that are shaping today’s commercial air 

carrier industry: (1) convergence of the network and low cost carrier business models; (2) consolidation 

of activity at a small percentage of the nation’s airports, and (3) a delineation of markets served between 

mainline and regional carriers.

The narrowing of the percentage share of domestic mainline capacity operated between network and low 

cost carriers resumed in 2009, signaling a trend toward convergence of their respective business models. 

After losing share in 2008, partially due to the cessation of operations by two low cost carriers during the 

year (American Trans Air and Skybus Airlines), low cost carrier share grew 1.5 percentage points in 2009. 

Since 2000, the share of capacity flown by the low cost carriers has more than doubled, going from 17.0 

percent in 2000 to 35.8 percent in 2009. 

Activity at over 400 airports offering commercial service in the 48 contiguous states is consolidated at a 

small percentage of the airports. Analysis of Department of Transportation origin and destination data for 

the period 2000 through 2008 shows the percent of originating passengers at the 35 Operational Evolution 

Partnership (OEP) airports as a share of total domestic originating passengers to be stable. During this 

period the OEP 35 share ranged from a low of 63.1 percent in 2001 to a high of 64.5 percent in 2006 

(in 2008 the share was 63.9 percent). Taking a larger sample, looking at the top 100 airports ranked by 

O&D passengers, these airports share of total domestic originating passengers has ranged from a low of 

91.6 percent to a high of 92.1 percent in 2006 (with the share in 2008 at 91.9 percent), highlighting the 

concentration of passengers in the system.

The number of city pairs less than 750 miles apart served by mainline carriers in the contiguous U.S. 

is shrinking, indicating a concentration of flying by this group of carriers in markets greater than 750 

miles. Overall, between 2003 and 2008 the number of city pairs served by mainline carriers increased by 

218, going from 3,044 to 3,262. In markets greater than 750 miles apart, city pairs for this carrier group 

increased by 268 and in markets less than 750 miles city pairs decreased by 50. In 2008, markets greater 

than 750 miles apart were 59.0 percent of all markets served by mainline carriers, up from a share of 54.4 

percent in 2003. In comparison, between 2003 and 2008 the number of city pairs served by regional 

carriers increased in both distance categories. For distances less than 750 miles, regional carriers flew 182 

more markets than in 2003, and for distances greater than 750 miles these carriers flew 380 more markets 

than in 2003. 
15

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial Air Carriers — Passengers

The contraction in growth that crept into the final months of fiscal year 2008, intensified in 2009 as U.S. 

commercial air carriers posted sharp declines in capacity and traffic during the year. System (the sum of 

domestic plus international) capacity dropped 7.4 percent to 965.5 billion ASMs while RPMs dropped 7.1 

percent to 769.7 billion. During the same period system-wide passenger growth declined 7.3 percent.

Two factors attributed toward the decline in demand for air travel during FY 2009. The primary factor 

reducing demand was the global economic meltdown. The meltdown strained corporate travel budgets 

and led to double-digit unemployment. Secondary to the economic meltdown was the outbreak of H1N1 

flu which resulted in drastically reduced demand to the Latin region (particularly Mexico) during the Spring. 

In an attempt to stem financial losses, carriers quickly reduced capacity with yield preservation as the goal. 

These actions were no match for a deepening recession, swelling unemployment lines, and consumer 

confidence that plummeted to an all-time low in February 2009. For the year, mainline carrier passenger 

growth contracted 8.2 percent while regional carrier growth dropped 3.9 percent. In the domestic market 

mainline passengers fell 8.5 percent from 2008 levels (for the sixth time in nine years) while passengers in 

international markets fell for the first time since 2002 (down 5.6 percent).

In 2009, system load factor, trip length and seats per aircraft mile climbed. Load factor grew 0.2 points to 

79.7 percent, down 0.2 points from the all-time high posted in 2007. For the seventh consecutive year of 

growth, trip length increased 1.8 miles to 1,093.2 miles. Seats per aircraft mile increased (up 2.0 seats) to 

139.8 seats per aircraft mile. In a reversal from recent trends, mainline carriers shifted some larger aircraft 

traditionally used to fly international routes over to domestic ones, while regional carriers phased out some 

smaller regional jet (50 seats and below) operations.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

SYSTEM ASMS & AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009

(7 .4 )

1 .4 2.7

(0.2) (0.4)

7 .0

(8.6 )

5.3

3.8

(3 .3 )

0.2

(5 .5)

(2 .1 )

0.0

(9 .9 )

3.6

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

A S M S O P ER ATION S

Source : ASMs - DOT Forms 41 & Form 298C ; Ope rations – FAA AT ADS/OPSNET Data ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

16

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity (50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) was down 8.9 percent in 2009 for 

the steepest decline since deregulation in 1978 (the second deepest decline occurred in 2002 after the 

terror attacks of 9/11, down 6.9 percent). Departures decreased by 8.7 percent after falling 1.9 percent in 

FY 2008. Year-over-year declines in capacity were posted each month of FY 2009. After hitting doubledigit declines in capacity during the first half of the year (down 11.0 in the first and second quarter of 2009) 

capacity dropped 8.3 percent and 6.0 percent in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively. Mainline 

carrier capacity was down 9.5 percent for the year, while regional carrier capacity was down 5.1 percent. 

At the end of 2009, domestic ASMs were 5.9 percent below pre-9/11 levels while departures were 14.6 

percent below.

Domestic passenger enplanements and RPMs fell at a slower rate than ASMs in 2009. The decline in 

passenger growth accelerated from the first to the second quarter, going from down 8.1 percent to down 

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

DOMESTIC CAPACITY

FISCAL YEAR 2009

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

ASMs Departures Sou r ce: D O T F o r m 41 Year/Year % Change

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

SYSTEM RPMS AND ENPLANEMENTS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009

0.8

7.0

0.4

(8.2)

(7.3)

(0.8)

3.4 2.4

7.5

(7.1)

2.7

3.9

2.6

10.6

7.4

(8.6)

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ENPLANEMENTS RPMS

Sour ce: DO T Form 41 & F orm 298C
17

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

11.0 percent. During the last half of the year, the decline in growth slowed to down 5.0 percent, with 

September 2009 posting a slight increase of 0.2 percent over the same 2008 period. Mainline carrier 

enplanements were down 8.5 percent for the year, while regional passengers fell 3.4 percent, marking the 

first decline in passenger growth for regional passengers during the post-deregulation era.

Similar to passengers, domestic RPMs dropped faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs down 7.7 percent 

in 2009. After falling dramatically during the first and second quarter of the year, down 9.9 percent and 

11.8 percent, respectively, the last half of the year was only down 5.1 percent with September posting yearover-year growth of 0.5 percent. For the year, mainline carrier RPM growth was down 8.2 percent, while 

regional carrier growth was down 4.3 percent. 

Domestic carrier load factor increased 1.0 points to 80.4 percent, setting an all-time high. Mainline carrier 

load factor increased 1.1 points to an all time high of 81.3 percent, while regional carrier load factor 

increased 0.6 points from 2008 to be 74.3 percent.

Since 2000, total domestic capacity has decreased by 5.9 percent. Mainline carriers have shrunk their 

domestic capacity by 14.4 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than offsetting the growth 

of low-cost carriers. Making up the shortfall from network carrier capacity cuts during this time are 

the regional carriers. This segment of the industry has greatly increased capacity since 2000 (up 146.3 

percent). During the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have decreased 2.2 percent, while enplanements 

have fallen by 14.9 percent. In comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements have increased 207.5 

and 93.04 percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen from 94.7 

percent in 2000 to 86.2 percent in 2009, while their share of RPMs has dropped from 95.5 percent to 87.2 

percent during the same period. Regional carriers now carry 1 in every 4 passengers, up from 1 in every 

7.8 in 2000.

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

DOMESTIC TRAFFIC

FISCAL YEAR 2009

-15.0

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

R PM s Enpla ne m en ts

Sou r ce: D O T F o rm 41 Year/Year % Change
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

18

International Passenger Markets

Reversing the recent trend of rapid growth by network carriers into international markets, U.S. carriers posted 

losses in international capacity and traffic in 2009. U.S. carrier ASMs and departures were down 3.5 and 5.4 

percent, respectively, in 2009. ASM growth fell slower in the first half of the year (down 2.9 percent) and then 

accelerated a bit during the second half of the year (down 3.6 percent). ASMs decreased in all world travel 

regions—down 2.0, 3.0, and 6.7 percent, respectively, in Atlantic, Latin American, and Asia/Pacific markets. 

International RPMs were down 5.6 percent and passenger enplanements were down 6.6 percent in 2009, 

with the growth declining faster in first half of the year (down 7.3 percent for the first half versus down 3.6 

percent during the second half for RPMs; down 7.9 percent versus down 3.5 percent for enplanements). 

The Atlantic market posted the smallest decline, with RPMs down 3.4 percent and enplanements down 4.9 

percent. RPMs and enplanements fell 5.9 and 7.0 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while 

RPMs dropped 9.4 percent as enplanements fell 8.7 percent in the Pacific market.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS BY CARRIER GROUP

FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009

486.5 482.8 502.6 523.1 516.3 533.9 522.2 477.6

88.6 105.0 125.9 146.4 152.2 156.2 159.1

153.8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2 00 2 2 003 20 04 20 05 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 008 20 09

M ainline Regionals

Sou r ce: D O T F o rm 41 & F orm 298C MILLIONS

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL CAPACITY

FISCAL YEAR 2009

-14 .0

-12 .0

-10 .0

-8 .0

-6 .0

-4 .0

-2 .0

0 .0

2 .0

Oc t N ov D e c J an F e b M ar A pr M a y Jun J ul A u g S e p

A SM s D ep a rtures Sou r ce: DO T For m 41 Year/Year % Change
19

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The international load factor dropped 1.7 percentage points in 2009 to be 78.1 percent. Load factor fell 

in the Latin America market (down 2.5 points to 76.8 percent), the Pacific market (down 2.3 points to 78.3 

percent) and in the North Atlantic market (down 1.1 points to 78.9 percent).

In 2009, 47.6 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin America 

market. The remaining 51.6 percent of international passengers was split between the Atlantic market (35.3 

percent) and the Pacific market (17.1 percent).

Commercial Air Carriers—Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international revenue freight/express and mail. The demand 

for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger 

aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft, on both scheduled and nonscheduled service.

U.S. air carriers flew 30.8 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2009, down 21.0 percent from 2008, with 

domestic cargo RTMs declining by 17.7 percent (11.9 billion) and international RTMs decreasing by 23.0 

percent (19.0 billion). The deep declines in domestic and international RTMs reflect many factors including 

the recession in the U.S. and other world regions, strong price competition from alternative shipping 

modes, and the global financial crisis. 

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC

FISCAL YEAR 2009

-14 .0

-12 .0

-10 .0

-8 .0

-6 .0

-4 .0

-2 .0

0 .0

2 .0

O c t N ov D e c Jan F eb M a r A pr M ay J un Jul Aug S ep

R P M s Enpla ne ments Sou r ce : DO T For m 41 Year/Year % Change
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

20

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers was 72.3 percent of total RTMs in 2009, with passenger carriers 

flying the rest, or 27.7 percent of the total. Total RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers declined 20.0 percent in 

2009, from 27.8 billion to 22.3 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers were 8.5 billion in 2009, 23.5 

percent lower than in 2008. 

On August 3, 2007, “Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007” was signed into law. Section 

1602 of this Act states that air cargo placed on passenger aircraft will receive the same level of screening 

as passenger-checked baggage. The legislation calls for the establishment of a system by 2010 that will 

require 100 percent inspection of cargo transported on passenger aircraft. The Transportation Security 

Administration (TSA) is currently screening 50% of cargo that is transported by a passenger carrier. The 

law requires screening at the piece level. Because this screening requirement is not supplemented 

by congressional funding, it is the air cargo industry’s responsibility to bear all costs. Therefore, it is 

anticipated the law will continue to lead to increased cost and time requirements for shipment of cargo on 

passenger air carriers.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Financial Results

After posting a record net loss of $18.6 billion in FY 2008 (primarily due to $10.0 billion in losses at 

Delta and Northwest stemming from a reduction in the value of the airlines due to high fuel prices), U.S. 

commercial air carriers narrowed their losses to $8.1 billion in FY 2009. 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

CARGO REVENUE TON MILES

FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009 *

16.3 16.1 15.7 15 .8 14.4 11.9

1 4.8

18.5

20.1 23.1 24.0 24 .2 24.6

19.0

15.0 13.0

0

10

20

30

40

200 2 2003 2 004 2005 2006 2 00 7 2008 2009

D omestic Inte rn ational

* Note: Fiscal years 2003 and beyond include changes in reporting requir ements BILLIONS
21

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) were down 16.1 percent in 2009. The reduction in passenger 

revenues underscored the necessity of fare sales used to fill aircraft by inducing business and leisure 

travelers to fly during the economic downturn. The demand for cargo services was adversely affected as 

consumers and business used slower, less expensive shipping methods or delayed purchases altogether. 

Operating expenses declined 17.4 percent from FY 2008. The reduction in operating expenses during FY

2009 was driven by a 31.8 percent reduction from the record high fuel prices posted for FY 2008, along 

with savings from lower variables costs due to reduced demand for passenger and cargo services.

In 2009, passenger carriers reported operating losses of $298 million and net losses of $7.8 billion, while 

air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $1.1 billion and a net loss of $331.2 million. Passenger 

carriers reversed course from FY 2008 to generate an operating profit ($180.3 million) in the domestic 

market, while international operations posted their first operating loss since FY 2003 ($478.3 million). Net 

losses were reported for passenger carriers in both the domestic ($5.6 billion) and international market 

($2.2 billion). Cargo carriers had stronger financial results than the passenger carriers. Domestically, 

cargo carriers posted an operating profit of $587.3 million and a net loss of $200.6 million. In international 

markets, these carriers reported operating profits of $511.3 million and net losses of $130.6 million. 

The industry’s financial deterioration is largely due to the financial performance of the network carriers, 

which have reported two consecutive years of losses. After posting a net loss of $19.7 billion in FY 2008, 

the seven network carriers reported an additional loss of $7.6 billion in FY 2009. Most of the downturn 

occurred in domestic markets where the seven carriers accounted for 58.3 percent of capacity and 47.6 

percent of passengers transported. Between 2000 and 2008, the domestic operations of these carriers 

reported combined operating and net losses of $30.7 and $52.7 billion, respectively. These losses widened 

in 2009, with the network carriers reporting operating losses of $1.7 billion and net losses of $5.3 billion. 

The nine reporting low-cost carriers reported operating profits of $765.4 million and net losses of $183.0 

million in FY 2009. During this period, the low cost carriers accounted for 26.3% and 26.6% of domestic 

capacity and passengers, respectively. Falling demand hindered profits for both carrier groups.

Declining leisure and business travel demand due to the economic downturn and the outbreak of H1N1 

virus were responsible for mainline carrier passenger yield eroding throughout the year. Although carriers 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

OPERATING AND NET PROFIT/LOSS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009

$5.6

$0.8

-$11.7

$5.9

-$2.0

$10.2

-$1.2

$0.7

-$4.6

-$10.6

-$18.6

-$8.1

-$0.2

-$5.7 -$4.6

-$10.9

-20.0

-16.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Operating Profit/Loss

Net Profit/Loss

Sou r ce: DOT For m 41 & F or m 298C BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

22

responded to the reduction in demand for air travel with drastic capacity cutbacks, heavily discounted fares 

were necessary to fill aircraft. As a result, domestic mainline carrier passenger yield dropped 8.6 percent 

in 2009.

In 2009, regional carriers reported operating profits of $915.6 million and net profits of $202.3 million. 

The fortunes of regional carriers are closely tied to the success of the larger network carriers for whom 

they provide feed at mainline air carrier hub airports. These carriers are feeling the pinch as their mainline 

counterparts pass more financial risk for contract flying down to their regional partners. As a result, 

regional carrier passenger yield fell sharply in FY 2009, down 11.2 percent as high-yield business travelers 

were either tethered to the office due to limited travel budgets or could “buy down” to less restrictive and 

less expensive fares when allowed to travel.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Aircraft Fleet

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers are retiring 

older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing them with more 

technologically advanced 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90 

seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is estimated at 7,132 

for 2009, a decrease of 323 aircraft from 2008. This includes 3,666 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft 

(over 90 seats), 854 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and 2,612 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops, 

and pistons). 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC PASSENGER YIELDS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mainline Regionals

REVENUE PER RPM (CENTS)
23

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet decreased by 129 aircraft in 2009 as fuel inefficient aircraft 

continued to be grounded. With the cuts to the fleet, the mainline carrier fleet now stands at 18.3 percent 

below (822 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. Since reaching a peak of 2,830 aircraft in 2005, the regional 

fleet has shrunk by 218 aircraft. 

General Aviation

With the onset of the economic downturn, weakening of the general aviation industry became apparent 

in 2008. In 2009 the deterioration was even more pronounced with record declines by several measures 

of activity and double digit declines by most measures. According to numbers released by the General 

Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 

1587 aircraft in CY 2009, 48.5 percent fewer than in CY 2008. This translates into a second consecutive 

year of decline in shipments that was preceded by four years of sustained growth. The turbine categories, 

turbojets and turboprops, were down 46.2 and 19.2 percent, respectively. Overall piston deliveries declined 

55.1 percent, with single-engine down 54.6 percent and the much smaller multi-engine category down 

64.8 percent. Billings in CY 2009 totaled $9.1 billion, down 32.1 percent compared with 2008 and the first 

reported decline since 2003.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIRCRAFT FLEET

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009

4,022 4,024 3,906 3,898 3,983

3,666

1,056 993 993 1,001 1,012 974 960

2,549

4,118

3,795

854

2,4 99

2,784 2 ,787

2,612 2 ,7 47 2 ,700

2,83 0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

20 02 2003 2004 20 05 2006 2007 2 008 2009

Mainline-AC Cargo R egionals

NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

24

General aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities in 2009 fell dramatically. Operations at combined FAA 

and contract towers declined 11.7 percent in 2009, one of the largest declines ever reported. General 

aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 10.4 percent, while the number of 

general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers decreased by 17.7 percent. 

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 

Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. This 

survey has been conducted annually since 1977. Beginning with the CY 2004 Survey there were significant 

improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent samples 

for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand 

under Part 135. In addition, the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (19 categories), FAA 

region (9 categories), and whether the aircraft was owned by an entity certified to fly Part 135 operations 

(2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow owners/operators of 

multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an additional aircraft 

category (light sport aircraft) was added. The result of these changes was the sample size nearly doubled. 

Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22.8 percent, total 

rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in many categories 

occurred. The results of the 2008 Survey, the latest one available, are consistent with the results of past 

surveys since 2004. This reinforces our belief that methodological improvements have resulted in superior 

estimates relative to those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast. 

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization along with GAMA aircraft 

shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estimated to have increased 0.2 percent in 2009, 

to 229,149. Despite the increase in the active fleet, general aviation flight hours are estimated to have 

decreased 10.3 percent in 2009 to 23.3 million. 

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Although in decline for 

many years now, the economic recession experienced in 2009 seems to have had an especially significant 

impact on the number of student pilots. In 2009, according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike 

Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots decreased by 10.8 percent. This is the fifth 

consecutive year of decline in this category and the largest decline in recent history. The average age of a 

U.S. pilot in 2009 was 45.3 years old.

GENERAL AVIATION

U.S. MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS AND BILLINGS

CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0 S H I P M E N T S

B I L L I N G S

Sou rce: GAM A SHIPMENTS
25

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

FAA Workload

In 2009, FAA facilities experienced the sharpest decline in activity since 1982. Despite lower fuel prices, air 

traffic activity fell in response to weak demand caused by the recession and the poor financial condition of 

the industry.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports was 52.9 million operations in 2009, down 10.4 

percent from 2008 and 23.0 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. Commercial activity 

(the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers declined by 9.9 percent 

in 2009. Air carrier operations were down 6.9 percent while commuter/air taxi operations fell 13.8 percent. 

Commercial operations in 2009 were 14.3 percent lower than their peak in 2005. 

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract towers fell 

by 10.7 percent in 2009, with general aviation activity (28.0 million) down 11.7 percent and military activity 

(2.6 million) up 1.1 percent. General aviation activity has declined nine of the past ten years since 1999. 

At the end of 2009, non-commercial aircraft activity was 28.6 percent below the activity in 2000.

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the 35 Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP) 

airports. These airports represent the top 35 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except 

CLE and PIT) and account for about 74 percent of commercial passengers. Although commercial activity 

at the OEP airports exceeded pre-9/11 peak activity levels in 2005, subsequent industry restructuring has 

resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since. In 2009, commercial activity at 

the OEP airports fell by 7.9 percent and was 11.2 percent below pre-9/11 activity levels. All of the OEP 35 

airports recorded decreases in activity with the largest declines occurring at Cincinnati (down 23.8 percent) 

and Tampa (down 17.9 percent). As a result, only 12 airports exceeded 2000 peak activity levels during 

fiscal year 2009, down from 17 in the previous year. 

AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY AT

COMBINED FAA AND CONTRACT TOWERS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009

40.7

38.5

34.2

30.5

37.9

37.0 35.8 35.9

22.3

25.2 25.3 24.8 26.1 24.2 24.2 25.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NON-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL

MILLIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

26

Since 2000 there has been a pronounced shift in demand to low-cost carriers which is reflected in the 

relative growth of commercial operations across the OEP 35 airports. Commercial operations at New 

York Kennedy (up 22.7 percent), Charlotte (up 22.3 percent), and Las Vegas (up 20.8 percent), are up the 

greatest relative to their pre-September 11th activity levels. Commercial operations at Pittsburgh (down 

69.5 percent) and St. Louis (down 55.5 percent) show the largest declines from pre-9/11 levels. These 

activity level shifts reflect the impact of the restructuring of the airline industry. American’s acquisition 

of TWA resulted in a consolidation of operations away from TWA’s St. Louis hub, while the merger of US 

Airways and America West has led to a dramatic shrinking of US Airways’ operations in Pittsburgh.

In 2009, total activity at FAA en route centers (40.1 million) fell 11.6 percent from the previous year. 

Commercial activity declined 9.6 percent, with air carrier operations down 6.8 percent and commuter/air 

taxi operations down 16.0 percent. Non-commercial activity was down 17.8 percent in 2009 as general 

aviation and military activity fell 17.7 and 18.0 percent, respectively. In 2009, air carrier operations were 

11.1 percent below their 2000 activity levels while operations for the general aviation and military user 

groups were 27.9 and 28.6 percent below their 2000 activity levels, respectively.

12 OEP AIRPORTS EXCEEDED

PRE-SEPTEMBER 11TH LEVELS DURING FY 2009

FY 2009 VS. FY 2000 COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY

80

90

100

110

120

130

JFK CLT LAS DEN IAH FLL SLC MSP ATL PHL DCA MEM

PERCENT OF FY 2000 OPS

23 OEP AIRPORTS

ARE BELOW PRE-SEPTEMBER 11TH LEVELS

FY 2009 VS. FY 2000 COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PERCENT OF FY 2000 OPS

SAN

LGA

ORD

EWR

HNL

MDW

BWI

SFO

MCO

DTW

PHX

MIA

TPA

DFW

IAD

PDX

SEA

BOS

LAX

CLE

CVG

STL

PIT
27

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

AIRCRAFT HANDLED AT

FAA EN ROUTE CENTERS

FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009

30.8

33.8 35.1 33.8 34.7 34.0

31.6 31.9

9.3 11.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.1 11.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

COMMERCIAL NON-COMMERCIAL

MILLIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

28

FAA AEROSPACE FORECAST FISCAL YEARS 

2010 – 2030

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the aviation 

industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the process is filled with 

uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Even though the highly cyclical U.S. aviation industry went into 

a downward spiral during 2009, history has shown the demand for air travel is resilient and growth will 

return. With the start of 2010, the lingering questions are 1) how much economic recovery will be required 

to jumpstart the industry back to a period of growth, and 2) when will the recovery occur?

By the end of FY 2009, carriers had executed 13 consecutive months of year over year reductions in 

domestic capacity. The capacity cutbacks were necessary to control costs in the face of plummeting 

demand for air travel. As the recession deepened carriers instituted fare sales to minimize financial losses. 

These fare sales led to record high load factors and record declines in yield. The capacity cuts that 

persisted through 2009 are expected to level off during 2010, with yields expected to turn positive by year 

end.

Given the current instability in the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and strength 

of a recovery in aviation demand. Nevertheless, the FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts 

consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently taking place within the aviation 

industry. The FAA is confident that these forecasts accurately predict future aviation demand, however due 

to the large uncertainty of the operating environment the variance around the forecasts is wider than in prior 

years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that explain 

and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the commercial 

aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to 

handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not assume further contractions of the industry 

through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing the 

commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published in the Official 

Airline Guide (OAG). To generate the short-term forecast (two years out) current monthly trends are used 

in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity 

and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar years 2010-2011. The 

medium to long-term forecasts (2012-2030) are based on results of econometric models. 

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts and the results of the 2008 

General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. The assumptions have been updated by FAA analysts to 

reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information from industry experts. 

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, who 

are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their comments and/or 

suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.
29

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Economic Forecasts

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by Global Insight, Inc. 

to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world and individual country economic 

projections provided by Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the demand for international aviation services. 

Annual historical data and economic forecasts are presented in tabular form in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. 

economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government fiscal year (October through September) basis. 

International forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis.

Data suggest that the bottom of the recession was in June, 2009, and Global Insight expects the pace of 

the recovery to be slow and not strong enough to halt the decline in jobs until later in 2010. The recovery is 

not V-shaped, but instead is more W-shaped. It isn’t until 2011 that economic growth moves above 3% on 

a sustained basis. 

There are a number of key issues surrounding the economy that remain a concern and how these are 

resolved will determine the future path of the recovery. Among these issues are the size of the federal 

deficit and taxes, when will the Federal Reserve begin to raise interest rates, when will housing prices begin 

to recover, and how long will households continue to rein in their spending. The forecast assumes that 

there will be no additional fiscal stimulus and that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates at 

or near zero for most of 2010. The forecast also assumes that the Fed will be able to successfully tighten 

monetary policy without sending the economy back into recession and that tax rates on both personal 

income and for corporations will gradually increase from current levels. 

Global Insight’s economic forecast has the end of the U.S. recession in the 3Q of FY 2009. The recovery 

that follows is a relatively weak recovery as credit remains tight and consumer spending is sluggish. On a 

quarter-by-quarter basis for the next two years U.S. economic growth is projected to range from a low of 

1.8 percent in 2Q FY 2010 to a high of 3.7 percent in 4Q FY 2011. 

U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL GROWTH

FY 2010 AND 2011 BY QUARTER

1.8

2.2

2.7 2.6 2.8

3.6 3.7

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03

Fiscal Year 2010 Fiscal Year 2011

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

30

Consumer spending is by far the largest component of the U.S. economy and one of the features of this 

recession has been the decline in consumer spending. Burdened by high debt and rising unemployment, 

consumer spending fell in 2009. The recovery in consumer spending is projected to be the weakest of the 

postwar era, as households struggle to reduce debt burdens and rebuild retirement assets.

In the medium term, between 2011 and 2015, U.S. economic growth is projected to average 3.0 percent 

per year with rates ranging between 2.6 and 3.6 percent. Consumption growth remains muted as 

households continue to rebuild their balance sheets and taxes are increased. Beyond 2015 U.S. real 

GDP growth slows to around 2.6 percent annually for the balance of the forecast period. The long-term 

stability of the U.S. economic growth is dependent on continued growth in the workforce, the capital stock, 

and improved productivity. Given the unprecedented amount of both fiscal and monetary support to the 

economy, a major risk to continued U.S. economic growth is inflation. These inflationary pressures, if 

unchecked, could force up inflation and bond yields and lessen domestic demand.

Global Insight projects the price of oil, as measured by Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to increase by 14.2 

percent after declining by 46.6 percent in 2009. Oil prices are projected to increase steadily to just over 

$90 per barrel by 2016 and then increase slightly less than inflation for the balance of the forecast period, 

reaching $104.45 per barrel by 2030. 

U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

2009 - 2030

3.6

(2.9)

2.6 2.6

3.2

2.6

1.5

2.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015-30

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
31

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

After falling 0.3 percent in FY 2009, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI) is expected to rise 1.4 

percent in 2010 and 1.9 percent in 2011 as the economy recovers and growth accelerates. After 2012 

consumer price inflation is projected to remain in a narrow range between 1.7 and 2.0 percent percent a 

year for the balance of the forecast. 

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast uses high 

and low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. The high and low economic growth cases 

are based on Global Insight’s September 2009 long range optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The high 

economic growth case incorporates higher population growth, capital spending, and productivity relative to 

the base case. Due to the higher productivity, inflation is lower than in the base case. Real GDP growth in 

the high case averages 3.2 percent annually compared to real GDP growth of 2.6 percent annually that is 

contained in the base case. The low economic growth case incorporates lower population growth, capital 

spending, and lower productivity than the base case. In contrast, in the low economic case, inflation is 

higher than in the base case due to lower productivity growth. Real GDP growth in the low case averages 

1.7 percent annually over the forecast horizon. Further details about the high and low scenarios can be 

found in Appendix A. 

World Economy

Worldwide economic activity is estimated by Global Insight to have declined by 2.4 percent in 2009, 

marking the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression. The advanced economies (U.S., 

Canada, Europe, and Japan) posted declines in output ranging from -1.5 percent to -2.9 percent. The 

emerging market economies grew 0.8 percent, 4.8 points below what they grew in 2008. Many emerging 

market economies posted declines in real GDP including Mexico, Taiwan, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. 

In 2010, global economic growth is projected to resume (2.5 percent) as stimulus plans in the U.S. and 

in China provide the basis for recovery. Recovery in Europe is projected to be more gradual than in the 

U.S. as the housing market corrections have come later and policy actions are more cautious. Beyond 

2010 through the balance of the forecast period, world real GDP is projected to increase an average of 3.2 

percent per year. 

REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

PERCENT CHANGE FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

(46.6)

2.7

14.2

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

2009 2010 2010-30

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

32

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions will continue to have the world’s highest economic growth 

rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at annual rates of 4.6 and 3.7 percent 

a year, respectively, over the forecast period. In Asia, China, with a population of 1.3 billion, is forecast to 

grow 7.4 percent a year, becoming the world’s second largest economy. India, with a population of 1.2 

billion, is projected to see its GDP triple in size, growing at an average rate of 6.2 percent a year during 

the forecast period. In contrast, Japan (currently the world’s second largest economy) grows at just 0.9 

percent a year over the forecast period as structural impediments and an aging population limit growth. 

Canadian and European GDP growth is anticipated to rise at more moderate rates of 2.4 and 1.7 percent a 

year, respectively, over the forecast period.

Aviation Traffic and Activity Forecasts

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional carriers) are 

contained in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts. 

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are contained in Tables 10 

through 18, 20, and 22. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts. 

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 23 through 26. These tables provide yearto-year historical and forecast data.

Table 19 provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 21 provides year-toyear historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 27 through 30. These tables provide year-to-year historical 

data and forecasts.

Tables 31 through 33 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

BY WORLD REGION

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 - 2030

(3.4)

2.3

1.2

3 .2

(3.0)

3.7

4.6 4.6

(0.1)

2.4 2.0

(2.6)

3.2

2.4

(2.4)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2009 20 10 201 0-30

Europe Latin America Pacific Canada World

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
33

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to shrink 1.6 percent in 2010. In the domestic market, mainline carrier 

capacity is forecast to shrink for the third consecutive year (down 1.6 percent) while capacity for the 

regional carriers grows from 2009 levels (up 1.9 percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast 

to fall in the Atlantic and Pacific market as growth returns to the Latin market. Mainline carrier system 

capacity drops 2.0 percent, while regional carrier capacity grows 2.0 percent. 

Passenger demand shows slight growth in 2010 with system RPMs forecast to grow 0.3 percent (flat for 

mainline carriers and up 4 percent for regional carriers) as passenger enplanements increase 0.5 percent 

(down 0.7 percent for mainline carriers and up 4.6 percent for regional carriers). Growth is projected to 

accelerate in 2011 with system RPMs and passengers increasing 2.6 and 2.1 percent, respectively, on a 

capacity increase of 2.5 percent. For the overall forecast period, system capacity is projected to increase 

an average of 3.4 percent a year. Supported by a growing U.S. economy and falling real yields, system 

RPMs are projected to increase 3.5 percent a year, with regional carriers (4.2 percent a year) growing faster 

than mainline carriers (3.4 percent a year). System passengers are projected to increase an average of 

2.6 percent a year, with regional carriers growing faster than mainline carriers (3.0 versus 2.5 percent a 

year). By 2030, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.9 trillion ASMs and transport 1.2 billion 

enplaned passengers a total of 1.6 trillion passenger miles. Planes will remain crowded, with load factor 

projected to grow moderately during the early years of the forecast period and then tapering during the 

mid to latter years, growing by 2.7 points over the forecast period to 82.4 percent in 2030. Passenger trip 

length is also forecast to increase by more than 221 miles over the forecast to 1,314.5 miles (up 10.5 miles 

annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in the relatively longer international 

and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

SYSTEM ENPLANEMENTS 

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

MAINLINE REGIONALS

MILLIONS of PASSENGERS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

34

Domestic Markets

After a dramatic decline during FY 2009, domestic capacity in FY 2010 is projected to fall slightly, down 

1.1 percent. Following a record reduction of 9.5 percent in 2009, mainline carrier capacity drops 1.6 

percent as these carriers show reluctance to increase capacity in a continuing environment of uncertainty. 

Regional carriers are slated to grow in FY 2010, up 1.9 percent, after posting their first decline in capacity 

since deregulation during FY 2009. Domestic commercial carrier capacity recovers modestly in 2011 (up 

1.6 percent) with mainline carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 1.4 percent versus 2.6 percent, 

respectively, and then increases at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent for the balance of the forecast 

(2011-2030). For the entire forecast period (2009–2030), domestic capacity is projected to increase at an 

average annual rate of 2.9 percent, just slightly faster than economic growth, with mainline carriers growing 

slower (2.7 percent per year) than the regional carriers (4.0 percent per year). 

The slow pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. inhibits RPM growth during the first year of the forecast 

(up 0.4 percent), with traffic projected to grow faster in the second half of the year. Mainline carrier RPMs 

are projected to contract 0.2 percent during 2010, while regional carrier RPMs grow 3.9 percent. By 

2011, traffic growth improves with RPMs increasing 1.8 percent as consumer confidence improves and 

corporate travel budgets increase. Driven by continued economic growth and falling real yields, domestic 

RPM growth for the remainder of the forecast (2011-2030), averages 3.3 percent per year. For the overall 

forecast period (2009-2030) domestic RPMs are projected to grow an average of 3.1 percent a year. 

Mainline carriers are projected to grow more slowly than the regional carriers throughout the forecast period 

(averaging 2.9 versus 4.2 percent a year, respectively). 

Enplanements are forecast to grow 0.4 percent in 2010, following a 7.3 percent decline in 2009. Similar to 

RPMs, passenger volume is expected to pick up in 2011 with the strengthening economy (up 1.8 percent), 

and then grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year for the period 2011-2030. Over the entire forecast 

period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent with 

mainline carriers growing more slowly than regional carriers (2.2 versus 3.0 percent a year, respectively). 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC ASMS

2009 - 2030

(9.5)

3.0

(1.6)

1.9

4.1

(5.1)

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

2009 2010 2010-30

Mainline Regionals

Annual Percent Growth
35

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

In spite of record capacity cutbacks triggered by a steep drop in demand, carriers lost pricing power during 

2009, with nominal yield falling 8.9 percent (down 8.6 percent in real terms). Despite continued capacity 

reductions, lackluster demand will keep fares in check in 2010, resulting in a modest increase in nominal 

yield of 3.9 percent (2.5 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, increases in nominal yields 

are projected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent a year, while in real terms they are projected to decline an 

average of 0.8 percent a year. The decline in real yields over the forecast period assumes competition 

between carriers and convergence of cost structures between network carriers and their low-cost 

counterparts. The convergence arises from gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel inefficient 

aircraft and hold the line on labor costs while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work 

forces, and unionization. 

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow more slowly 

than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.9 percent per year for departures versus 3.1 percent for 

RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three operational measures—aircraft size, load factor, 

and trip length.

Domestic aircraft size8

 increased in 2009 by 1.3 seats to 121.9 seats. The increase was partly driven 

by a large increase in aircraft size by the regional carriers (up 2.2 seats) and the grounding of older, fuel 

inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 737-300/400/500) by the mainline carriers (up 1.4 seats). The increase 

in regional aircraft size was caused by the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft 

entered the fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft falls in 2010 (down 0.3 seats) as mainline carriers continue 

to cut capacity while their regional counterparts grow. Over the course of the forecast, domestic seats per 

aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 123.6 seats by 2030, an average of 0.1 seats per year.

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier fleet plans, 

publicly known aircraft order books and FAA’s expectations of the changing domestic competitive 

landscape. In the near-term (through 2011), the forecast incorporates several carrier assumptions: 

1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) network carrier “own metal” service on 

longer-haul routes; 3) the retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC RPMS

2009-2030

(8.2)

3.1

(0.2)

3.9 4.2

(4.3)

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

2009 2010 2010-30

Mainline Regionals

Annual Percent Growth

8 Defined as seats per mile flown and computed by dividing ASMs by miles flown.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

36

4) the shifting of wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 5) growing use of 

70-90 seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft in their 

domestic route networks with smaller, next generation, narrow-body aircraft. In addition, some carriers, 

such as JetBlue and US Airways, are turning to smaller aircraft, like the 100-seat Embraer 190, to 

supplement their route structure. The use of smaller narrow-body aircraft allows mainline carriers to better 

serve their customers by boosting frequency, as well as improve profitability by more closely matching 

supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers).

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2009 by 1.4 seats to 151.4 seats, but is projected to fall 

0.8 seats in 2010. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is projected to fall to 150.4 seats in 2011 

and then gradually increase thereafter for the balance of the forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the 

mainline group will increase by only 0.5 seats between 2009 and 2030, going from 151.4 to 151.9.

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a much faster pace than their 

mainline counterparts. The faster growth in regional aircraft size is stimulated by the wave of 70-90 seat 

regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as reductions in the 50 seat and under jet fleet. 

Regional carriers are better equipped to support operations of their mainline partners by providing capacity 

that complements market demand. The greater number of the larger 70- and 90-seat regional jets in 

the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet retirements over the next few years increases the average 

seating capacity of the regional fleet from 55.0 seats in 2009 to 56.8 seats by 2011. Over the course of the 

forecast, average seats per aircraft for the regional carriers increases by 0.5 seats per year to 65.4 seats in 

2030. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the size and aircraft types operated by 

the mainline and regional carriers.

 

Commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 1.1 points during FY 2009 to an all-time high of 80.4 

percent. Pushing load factors to record levels was the mainline carrier group which posted a load factor of 

81.3 percent. Load factors for the regional carriers increased 0.6 points to 74.3 percent. In 2010, domestic 

load factor is forecast to increase 1.2 points to 81.6 percent as mainline and regional carrier load factors 

rise 1.2 and 1.5 points, respectively. Thereafter, commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to 

83.2 percent by 2030.

In 2009 domestic passenger trip length fell 3.4 miles to 870.5 miles, after increasing 3.7 miles in 2008. 

Passenger trip length is forecast to decline by 0.7 miles in 2010 and by 0.3 miles in 2011 as carriers 

continue to restructure their networks and realign capacity. After 2011, trip length is projected to steadily 

increase for the balance of the forecast, reaching 997.2 miles by 2030. The increase in trip length reflects 

increases in both mainline and regional carrier trip length. Mainline carrier trip length increases as thinner, 

shorter haul markets are relinquished to regional partners and replaced with flying of longer domestic 

trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or reduced 

as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously only 

accessible with mainline equipment. 

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of connecting 

versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry 

restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels 

can vary significantly.
37

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) passengers over time 

to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the 

average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers 

fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry 

varied within a narrow band between 1995 and 2002. After 2002, the ratio trailed downward until the end 

of 2008. The decline in the ratio during this six year period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the 

network carriers and rising passenger share for the low-cost carriers. The uptick in the ratio during 2009 

indicates an increase of hubbing by the carriers. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of 

domestic traffic connectivity and these trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger enplanement totals.

International Markets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand (the sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers) 

for travel between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico 

and the Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific--as well as for U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. These forecasts are 

based on historical passenger statistics from the United States Immigration and Naturalization Services 

(INS) and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic projections from Global 

Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 147.1 

million in CY 2009, 4.7 percent lower than in 2008. As the worldwide economy begins to recover from the 

recession of 2009, international passengers grow 3.3 percent in 2010. As the world economic recovery 

gains solid footing in 2011, passenger growth is up 5.0 percent. For the balance of the forecast period, 

stable worldwide economic growth leads international passenger growth to average 4.2 percent a year, and 

totaling 347.9 million in 2030. 

Over the entire forecast period (2009-2030), high economic growth in the Asia-Pacific market drives 

passenger growth averaging 5.1 percent a year for this region. India, China, and Taiwan (passenger growth 

of 8.0, 7.9, and 7.8 percent a year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the region. 

Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most mature in the region) is projected to be well below the 

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS PER OD PAX

1995-2009

1.37 1.37 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.36

1.38

1.35

1.34

1.32 1.32 1.32

1.34

1.38 1.38

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

Sou r ces: DOT T 100 an d O&D Sur vey

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

38

regional average at 2.4 percent a year.

In the Atlantic region, open skies between the European Union and the United States and increasing 

non-stop service to Africa and the Middle East helps to fuel passenger growth of 3.9 percent a year over 

the forecast period. Over the 21-year forecast horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top three 

Atlantic markets-- the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, is 4.2, 3.6, and 4.1 percent, respectively. 

In the Latin America region, passenger growth between 2009 and 2030 is forecast to average 4.3 percent 

a year. The highest growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 7.0 percent) while the largest 

market in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.1 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth are 

projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 0.5 and 2.6 percent a year, 

respectively). 

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic U.S. market 

(2.4 percent), averaging 3.4 percent a year over the forecast period.

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

In 2009, international U.S. commercial air carrier capacity fell 3.5 percent from 2008 levels. Capacity falls 

an additional 2.8 percent in 2010 as carriers further cut capacity due to reduced demand for air travel. In 

the Atlantic and Pacific markets capacity decreases 5.5 and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 2010. Conversely, 

capacity in the Latin region during the same period grows 1.8 percent reflecting a rebound from the 

impact of H1N1 flu virus. With a strong economic recovery in the global economies expected for 2011, 

international capacity grows modestly at 4.7 percent, and averages 4.6 percent a year for the remainder 

of the forecast period. Strong growth in the medium to long-term portion of the forecast reflects favorable 

U.S. and world economic activity.

U.S. & FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

PASSENGERS TO/FROM THE U.S.

2009 - 2030

3.9

4.3

5.1

3.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Atlantic Latin America Asia/P acific Canada

Transborder

AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
39

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs fell 5.6 percent in 2009 as enplanements decreased 6.6 

percent. RPMs are projected to increase slightly in 2010 (up 0.3 percent), as increases in the Latin and 

Pacific regions offset a modest decline in the Atlantic region. In 2011, U.S. carrier international RPMs 

increase 4.7 percent led by growth in the Atlantic market (up 5.2 percent) and followed by growth in the 

Latin (up 4.6 percent) and Pacific markets (up 3.7 percent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase 

an average 4.7 percent a year with the fastest growth in the Latin region. A similar pattern is forecast for 

enplanement growth. International enplanements are projected to increase 0.9 percent in 2010, and then 

grow 4.0 percent in 2011. Over the balance of the forecast period, enplanements are forecast to increase 

an average of 4.1 percent a year with the fastest growth in Pacific and Latin markets (up 5.0 and 4.4 

percent a year, respectively).

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL ASMS

2009 - 2030

(5.5)

(2.0)

3.9

(3.0)

1.8

5.5

5.0

(6.7)

(2.2) (3.5) (2.8)

4.6

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

2009 2010 2010-30

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total

Annual Percent Growth

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL RPMS

2009 - 2030

4.0

(1 .9)

(3 .4 )

5.6

3 .7

(6 .0 )

1.2

5.1

(9 .4 )

(5 .6 )

0 .3

4.7

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

2009 2010 2010-30

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

40

The slower growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2009-2030 (4.0 percent a year) 

compared to total international passengers (4.2 percent a year) reflects a small decline in market share 

for U.S. airlines over the forecast period. Forecasts of international demand assume U.S. and foreign flag 

carriers will benefit from the favorable economic activity in both the United States and world markets. 

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 78.1 percent in 2009. Load factor is expected 

to increase 2.5 points to be 80.6 percent in 2010 as capacity growth lags traffic growth in all three world 

markets. International load factor is projected to fall 0.1 points in 2011 and rise slowly for the remainder of 

the forecast to be 81.1 percent in 2030.

International passenger real yields for mainline carriers were down 12.6 percent in 2009. The largest 

decrease was in the Atlantic market (down 15.1 percent), followed by the Pacific (down 11.8 percent) and 

Latin market (down 7.8 percent) reflecting a lack of pricing power by U.S. carriers and the significant fall in 

demand resulting from the global recession. Buoyed by strengthening demand, international real yields are 

projected to increase 3.1 percent in 2010 and then increase by 4.7 percent in 2011. For the remainder of 

the forecast period, real yield decreases an average of 1.0 percent a year. In nominal terms, international 

yields are forecast to increase 4.6 percent in 2010, increase 6.7 percent in 2011 and then grow at an annual 

rate of 0.9 percent over the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive 

pressures will hold the line on fare increases. In international markets, this takes the form of expanded 

open sky agreements and global alliances. 

Commercial Air Carriers — Air Cargo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that have affected the growth in air cargo 

traffic include the global financial crisis, declining real yields, and globalization. Significant structural 

changes have occurred in the air cargo industry. Among these changes are the following: air cargo security 

regulations by the FAA and TSA; market maturation of the domestic express market; modal shift from air 

to other modes (especially truck); increases in air fuel surcharges; growth in international trade from open 

skies agreements; use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail; and 

increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., e-mail). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo 

industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of 

the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to 

economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based mainly on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic 

cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo 

RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between 

passenger carriers and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, 

changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

Total RTMs are forecast to grow 3.4 percent in 2010 and again in 2011 by 4.9 percent. For the balance of 

the forecast period, driven by steady economic growth, total RTMs are forecast to increase at an average 
41

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

annual rate of 5.1 percent. The forecast of 86.6 billion RTMs in 2030 represents an average annual increase 

of 5.0 percent over the entire forecast period. 

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.3 percent in 2010 and 2.0 percent in 2011, driven by a slow 

recovery in the U.S. economy. Between 2011 and 2030, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase 

at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. The forecast of 18.5 billion RTMs in 2030 represents an average 

annual increase of 2.1 percent over the entire forecast period.

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. Thus, the 

growth of this segment in the future will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic 

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (electronic mail). 

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 65.4 percent in 1997 

to 86.2 percent in 2009. This is because of significant growth in express service by FedEx and United 

Parcel Service coupled with a lack of growth of domestic freight/express business for passenger carriers. 

The all-cargo share is forecast to increase to 90.4 percent by 2030 based on increases in wide-body 

capacity for all-cargo carriers and security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs are forecasted to rise 4.7 percent in 2010 reflecting a recovery from the global 

economic downturn and grow 6.6 percent in 2011 as world economic growth rebounds and trade expands. 

For the balance of the forecast period, international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 6.3 

percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. The forecast 68.1 billion RTMs in 2030 represents 

an average annual increase of 6.3 percent over the entire forecast period. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 63.3 percent in 2008 to 

63.6 percent in 2009. Beyond 2009, the all-cargo share of RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 

69.9 percent by 2030.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

RTMS 2009 - 2030

2.2

(17.7)

1.3

4.7

(23.0 )

6.4

-27.0

-24.0

-21.0

-18.0

-15.0

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

2009 20 10 2010-30

Domestic Inter na tional

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

42

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,132 in 2009 to 10,274 in 2030, an average 

annual growth rate of 1.8 percent or 150 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet will shrink by a net 107 

aircraft in 2010 after shrinking by 323 aircraft in 2009 as the dramatic fall off in demand and high fuel prices 

compelled carriers to prune their fleets. In comparison, the US commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft 

between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in aviation.

The number of passenger jets in the mainline carrier fleet decreased by 129 aircraft in 2009 and is expected 

to fall another 17 aircraft in 2010 before increasing in 2011 by 40 aircraft. For the period 2010-2030, the 

mainline air carrier passenger fleet increases an average of 85 aircraft a year, totaling 5,342 aircraft in 2030. 

The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and US Airways) is projected to grow by 60 aircraft 

annually over the period 2010-2030; the wide-body fleet grows by 25 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and 

Airbus A350’s enter the fleet. 

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 113 aircraft in 2010 as carriers remove large 

numbers of 50 seat and smaller regional jets. After 2010, the regional carrier fleet is expected to increase 

by an average of 45 aircraft (1.6 percent) over the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 3,401 

aircraft in 2030. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is projected to grow 

from 1,710 in 2009 to 2,441 in 2030, an average annual increase of 1.7 percent. All the growth in regional 

jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 and 90-seat aircraft. During the forecast period, all 

regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of scope clauses. The 

turboprop/piston fleet is expected to grow from 902 units in 2009 to 960 in 2030. Turboprop/piston aircraft 

are expected to account for just 28.2 percent of the regional carrier passenger fleet in 2030, down from a 

42.4 percent share in 2009. 

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 55 aircraft over the next 2 years (from 854 to 909 aircraft 

in 2011), and total 1,531 aircraft in 2030. The narrow-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 10 aircraft a 

year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service. The widebody jet fleet is projected to increase by 22 aircraft yearly. 

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 – 2030

(3.4)

(0.5)

1.9 2.7 2.8

(11.0)

(4.3) (3.3)

1.6

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2009 2010 2010-30

MAINLINE-AC CARGO REGIONAL

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
43

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston, 

turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, light sport, experimental and other (which 

consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles). The FAA forecasts “active aircraft,”9

 not total aircraft. The 

FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity 

Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with 

the 2004 GA Survey there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. Coinciding with 

the changed survey methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in the number 

of aircraft and hours flown. The results of the 2008 GA Survey are consistent with the results of surveys 

since 2004, reinforcing our belief that the methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates 

relative to those in the past. Thus, they are used as the basis for our forecast. Because results from the 

GA Survey are not published until the following year, the 2008 statistics are the latest available. Figures 

for 2009 are estimated based on other activity indicators, and the forecasts of activity begin in 2010 and 

continue through 2030.

The demand for business jet aircraft has grown over the past several years. New product offerings, the 

introduction of very light jets, and increasing foreign demand have helped to drive this growth. In addition, 

corporate safety/security concerns for corporate staff, combined with increasing flight delays at some U.S. 

airports have made fractional, corporate, and on-demand charter flights practical alternatives to travel on 

commercial flights. Despite the hard impact of the recession felt in the business jet market, the forecast 

calls for robust growth in the long term outlook and predicts business usage of general aviation aircraft will 

expand at a faster pace than that for personal/recreational use. 

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent over the 

21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 229,149 in 2009 to 278,723 aircraft by 2030. The more 

expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average 

of 3.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 4.2 percent a year.

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 – 2030

0.2

2.4

0.2

1.0

3.0

2.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL TURBINES

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

9 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

44

With the advent of a relatively inexpensive twin-engine very light jet (VLJ), many questions have arisen as to 

the future impact they may have. The lower acquisition and operating costs of VLJs were believed to have 

the potential to revolutionize the business jet market, particularly by being able to sustain a true on-demand 

air-taxi service. While initial forecasts called for over 400 aircraft to be delivered a year, events such as the 

recession along with the bankruptcy of Eclipse and DayJet have led us to temper more recent forecasts. 

The worldwide delivery of VLJs this year has held up relatively well compared to the turbine jet market as 

a whole, helped in large part by the introduction of Embraer’s Phenom 100 to the market. Despite that, the 

impacts of the recession have led to dampened expectations. The current forecast calls for 440 VLJs to 

enter the US fleet over the next three years, with an average of 216 aircraft a year for the balance of the 

forecast period. 

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from the 2008 

total of 166,514 through 2017, with declines in both single and multi-engine fixed wing aircraft, but with the 

smaller category of piston-powered rotorcraft growing. Beyond 2017 active piston-powered aircraft are 

forecast to increase to 172,613 by 2030. Over the forecast period, the average annual increase in pistonpowered aircraft is 0.2 percent. Although piston rotorcraft are projected to increase rapidly at 3.4 percent 

a year, they are a relatively small part of this segment of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine fixed-wing 

piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to grow at a much slower rate (0.2 percent 

respectively) while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projected to decline 0.8 percent a year. In 

addition, it is assumed that VLJs and new light sport aircraft could erode the replacement market for 

traditional piston aircraft at the high and low ends of the market respectively. 

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA’s aircraft registry counts) was 

created: “light sport” aircraft. At the end of 2008 a total of 6,811 active aircraft were estimated to be in this 

category while the forecast assumes the fleet will increase approximately 825 aircraft per year until 2013. 

Thereafter the rate of increase in the fleet tapers considerably to about 335 per year. By 2030 a total of 

16,311 light sport aircraft are projected to be in the fleet. 

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 2.5 percent yearly over the forecast 

period. A large portion of this growth will occur in the short term post recession period, where record low 

utilization rates experienced in 2009 will return to normal trends, particularly in the turbine jet category. 

As with previous forecasts, much of the long term increase in hours flown reflects strong growth in the 

rotorcraft and turbine jet category. Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to 

increase 4.1 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with 1.1 percent for piston-powered aircraft. 

Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average 

annual rate of 6.1 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the 

increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with measured recovery in utilization rates from recession 

induced record lows. Rotorcraft hours, relatively immune to the economic downturn when compared to 

other categories, are projected to grow by 3.0 percent yearly. The light sport aircraft category is expected 

to see increases in hours flown on average of 5.9 percent a year, which is primarily driven by growth in the 

fleet.
45

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 501,875 in 

2030, an increase of over 52,000 (up 0.5 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Commercial pilots are 

projected to increase from 125,738 in 2009 to 139,100 in 2030, an average annual increase of 0.5 percent. 

The number of student pilots is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent over the 

forecast period, growing from 72,280 in 2009 to 86,050 in 2030. In addition, FAA is projecting that by the 

end of the forecast period a total of 14,100 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2009, the 

number of sport pilot certificates issued was 3,248 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot 

certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at an average 

yearly rate of 0.2% over the forecast period to total 219,050 in 2030.

FAA Workload Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 508 FAA (264) and contract towers (244) totaled 52.9 million operations in 2009, down 10.4 

percent from 2008. Activity is projected to decrease 2.7 percent in 2010, with declines in both commercial 

and non-commercial operations. Growth in activity resumes in 2011 (0.8 percent) led by increases in noncommercial activity (up 1.1 percent). For the balance of the forecast, activity grows at an average rate of 

1.6 percent per year, reaching 69.6 million operations in 2030.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity (up 1.7 

percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to shrink 2.4 percent in 2010 as carriers continue to cut 

capacity as the unemployment rate continues to rise. In 2011, air carrier activity is projected to increase 

0.7 percent as airline capacity begins to rebound, and grows an average of 2.3 percent per year over the 

forecast period. Commuter/air taxi operations are forecasted to fall 1.9 percent in 2010 then remain flat in 

2011. For the balance of the forecast period, commuter/air taxi operations are projected to increase 1.6 

percent per year. 

General aviation activity fell 11.7 percent in 2009 with steep declines in both itinerant (down 11.2 percent) 

and local (down 12.2 percent) activity. Activity is projected to fall again in 2010 (down 3.1 percent) 

reflecting the residual impact of the 2009 recession and then rise modestly in 2011 and 2012 (up 1.2 

HOURS FLOWN

IN GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 - 2030

-12.1

-1.8

-10.3

2.7

0.6

4.3

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL TURBINES

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

46

percent both years) as falling unemployment promotes the growth of flight hours and operations despite 

slightly higher oil prices. For the entire forecast period, general aviation activity at towered airports is 

projected to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year, to 35.1 million operations in 2030. General aviation 

activity at combined FAA/contract towers grows in line with the modest increase forecasted for general 

aviation piston hours already cited. Most operations at the smaller towers are in piston aircraft, while those 

at the largest airports tend to be turbine operations. Military activity rose 1.1 percent in 2009.

Operations10 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 9.7 percent in 2009, the fifth year 

in a row. They are projected to decline again in 2010 (down 1.1 percent) as the effects of the recession 

continue to be felt with decreases in both commercial and non-commercial activity. TRACON operations 

are forecast to rise 1.0 percent in 2011 before increasing at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent for the 

balance of the forecast. For the entire forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.5 percent 

per year, totaling 54.4 million in 2030. 

En Route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers decreased 11.6 percent to 40.1 

million in 2009, with all user groups posting declines in activity. Activity at en route centers is forecast 

to decrease by 1.6 percent in 2010 in the wake of decreased commercial and general aviation activity. 

Growth in en-route activity resumes in 2011 (up 1.4 percent) led by increases in air carrier activity. After 

2011, through the balance of the forecast period, en route activity increases 2.5 percent annually, reaching 

64.1 million aircraft handled in 2030. Over the entire forecast period, commercial activity is projected to 

increase at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent, reflecting increases in the commercial fleet and aircraft 

stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is projected to grow 0.7 percent per year, 

reflecting modest growth in business aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2009 activity level 

throughout the forecast period.

TRACON OPERATIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

(9.7)

(1.1)

1.7

(1.7)

(10.1)

2.1

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL COMMERCIAL

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

10 TRACON operations consist of itinerant IFR and VFR arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and 

VFR overflights. 
47

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED 

AT FAA EN ROUTE CENTERS

FISCAL YEARS 2009-2030

(11.7)

2.5

(1.6)

(9.6)

2.9

(1.6)

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL COMMERCIAL

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

48

 UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

International industry development, growth, and investment over the past several years have allowed 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to evolve from remotely piloted vehicles with limited capabilities to 

semi and fully autonomous systems for commercial applications. There are some 100 U.S. companies, 

academic institutions, and government organizations developing over 300 UAS designs. Currently, the U.S. 

government uses unmanned aircraft for military combat, surveillance, and reconnaissance. 

The UAS term is used because it includes the entire system (aircraft, data links, control station and other 

elements). UAS’s also vary widely in size, shape, and capabilities. Some unmanned aircraft weigh 1,900 

pounds and can remain aloft for 30 hours or more, because there is no need for them to land to change 

pilots. Some are 6 inches long. Others can perform dangerous missions without risking loss of life. 

In its broadest context, there are three major market segments: military, civil government, and commercial. 

While market drivers and dynamics among these segments differ significantly, they share common 

objectives: to provide a service that cannot be accomplished by manned aircraft and/or to perform an 

existing manned operation at a lower cost. Because of increased interest and activity, UAS have the 

potential to become a major part of the commercial aerospace industry within the United States.

Federal agencies are planning to increase their use of UAS’s. State and local governments envision using 

UAS’s to aid in law enforcement and firefighting. Potential commercial uses are also possible, for example, 

in real estate photography or pipeline inspection. UAS’s could perform some manned aircraft missions with 

less noise and fewer emissions.

Because the industry is in its infancy, forecasts of the number of units are relatively few and have 

considerable variation. Recent work by RTCA, Inc., has identified the drivers and impediments to future 

growth in the aforementioned three market segments and has included forecasts of the number of UAS 

units by market segment. The forecasts generally assumed that 1)commercial activities would not begin 

until 2018; 2) no significant technological or extraordinary demand would accelerate the introduction of 

UAS’s; 3) costs of UAS systems would decline as the technology matures and as the scale of operations 

increases. Currently, the majority of UAS systems are operated by the military and have little impact on 

the NAS. However as the technology matures, increasing numbers of units will be operated by civil and 

commercial users, and could have greater impacts on the NAS. However the volume of units is relatively 

small – approximately 15,000 units by 2020 and 30,000 units by 2030. 
49

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) licenses and 

regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites 

authorized by Executive Order 12465 and 49 US Code, Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial 

Space Launch Act). Title 49 and the Executive Order also direct the Department of Transportation (carried 

out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and 

regulate commercial launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health 

and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. 

Overview

Commercial space transportation generally consists of the launch of satellites into orbit for either 

commercial or government customers by private, non-government entities, called launch services 

providers. Commercial space transportation also covers suborbital launches, where a payload or vehicle is 

launched on a trajectory that briefly goes into space but returns to Earth rather than going into orbit, as well 

as the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most active 

include the Pegasus and Taurus, two small vehicles built and operated by Orbital Sciences Corporation 

(OSC); the Delta IV, a heavy-class vehicle and the Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, both built by United 

Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Boeing 

Launch Services (BLS); the Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye 

for the multinational Sea Launch venture; the Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by ULA and marketed by 

Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services (LMCLS), and the Falcon 1, a small launch vehicle built and 

operated by SpaceX. Commercial vehicles under development include the heavy-class Falcon 9 vehicle 

by SpaceX and the medium-class Taurus II by OSC. From 1989 through the end of 2009, DOT/FAA has 

licensed 200 orbital and suborbital commercial launches.

Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, were first granted 

by FAA in 2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Some permits have been granted for vehicles 

participating in the Lunar Lander Challenge, a competition to demonstrate technologies potentially 

applicable to both future lunar spacecraft and commercial suborbital vehicles, with $2 million in prizes 

offered by NASA’s Centennial Challenges program.

Six commercial spaceports, located in Alaska, California (Vandenberg Air Force Base and Mojave Air 

and Space Port), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia, currently have FAA launch site operator licenses. 

Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under development.

Review of 2009

There were five FAA-licensed launches, all orbital, in 2009, down from 11 in 2008. BLS performed two 

launches, one Delta II launch of the WorldView 2 earth observation satellite, and a Delta IV launch of a 

meteorological satellite. Sea Launch conducted one Zenit-3SL launch of a commercial communications 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

50

satellite. There was one Falcon 1 launch which orbited a Malaysian earth observation satellite. LMCLS 

performed one Atlas V launch of a commercial communications satellite. There were no suborbital permit 

flights during 2009. 

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010 Forecast

Licensed Launches 11 5 4-7

Permitted Launches 5 0 2-4

Worldwide there were 24 orbital commercial launches in 2009, compared to 28 in 2008. In addition to the 

five FAA-licensed launches, Europe performed five commercial launches of its Ariane 5, Russia conducted 

ten launches of various vehicles, and Land Launch, a joint venture of Sea Launch and Space International 

Services, performed three launches of the Zenit-3SLB. There were 78 total worldwide commercial, civil, and 

military launches in 2009, with commercial launches representing about 30 percent of the total. For more 

details, see the Year in Review report available online at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/.

Global Forecast

In May 2009, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 

published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2009 Commercial Space 

Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 26.7 commercial orbital launches per year of 

geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2018. That annual 

average includes 15.7 launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 8.3 launches of 

medium-to-heavy vehicles to NGSO, and 2.7 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.
51

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 2,000 to over 

6,000 kilograms; satellite masses have tended to grow over time although there is still interest in smaller 

satellites. Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets, including commercial 

remote sensing, science and technology demonstration missions (often for nations without an indigenous 

launch capability), and the replenishment and replacement of low Earth orbit communications satellite 

systems first launched in the late 1990s.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but instead represent 

the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The complete forecast report is 

available at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

52

RISKS TO THE FORECAST 

The FAA is “cautiously optimistic” that its current outlook for aviation demand and activity can be achieved. 

However, this year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including security 

and pandemic illnesses, as well as the strength of the economic recovery and the weakened financial 

health of the commercial aviation industry. As the attempted bombing of a Northwest airliner on Christmas 

Day 2009 reminds us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to achieving the forecast. Because 

of aviation’s high visibility and global reach, concerns remain about international terrorism. Any terrorist 

incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation 

services. 

During 2009 there was much discussion about the possible impacts of the H1N1 or swine flu virus. As of 

January 2010 there had not been a widespread serious outbreak of the virus in the U.S. However, events 

in Mexico during the spring of 2009 provide some evidence of the damaging impacts that such an event 

could inflict. When a severe outbreak of the H1N1 virus broke out in Mexico, authorities quickly moved to 

place severe limits on aviation. Airlines responded by slashing capacity in the face of falling demand, and 

not until well after the restrictions and warnings on travel were lifted did carriers begin to cautiously restore 

service to the region.

Although oil prices were considerably lower in 2009 than they were for much of 2008, there is still 

considerable uncertainty as to the level of oil prices once economic growth resumes. FAA’s baseline 

forecast (based on Global Insight’s Oct 2009 forecast) calls for steady increases in oil prices after 2009. 

The increases are relatively modest, with the price of oil only exceeding $100/barrel after 2025. Some 

forecasters are calling for a much sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) in its 2010 Annual Energy Outlook is projecting oil prices to exceed $100/barrel by 

2015-2016. While lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, 

and increases the chances for industry profitability, higher oil prices could lead to further shifts in consumer 

expenditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery in air transport demand. Furthermore, higher oil 

prices, especially in the near term, could wipe out any chance of industry profitability, continue to pressure 

airline costs, delay balance sheet improvement and discourage expansion plans or new orders for aircraft 

as carriers focus on maintaining and increasing cash balances. 

Recent data suggests that the global economy has begun to grow again, but the data also indicate that the 

growth is concentrated in a relatively few countries. As a result, the ensuing economic recovery may not 

be a balanced one and there is considerable doubt about the strength and sustainability of the expansion. 

The baseline forecast assumes that growth in the U.S. and China will be significantly higher than in the 

other large economies – Japan and the European Union. Doubts remain over the strength of demand in 

both Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic 

problems, institutional constraints, and the authorities’ reluctance to take decisive action. Furthermore the 

steps that were taken to turn the global economy around may prove to be excessive, since the resulting 

surge in liquidity growth seems to be inflating asset bubbles and exacerbate existing global imbalances. 

Once the global economy recovers from the current downturn, there could be an increasing risk from 

asset bubbles and macroeconomic imbalances, which could end up in a deeper, more prolonged, and less 

manageable recession and financial crisis. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for 

travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of global economic activity could 

seriously inhibit the growth in world passenger demand.
53

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisition (M&A) appears to be rather limited. 

Although there is still talk in the industry about the benefits of consolidation, aside from Delta/Northwest 

merger and the Continental/United alliance there appears to be little scope for further mergers in the US 

airline industry. Continued tightness in the credit markets has reduced the ability of the industry to finance 

additional mergers. However, US airlines are exploring other options including global alliances. Many of 

the major carriers in the US are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust 

immunity from the US DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility to airline operators across 

borders, it may create an anti-competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating 

vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such 

oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and 

may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of regional jets into the fleet of regional carriers. 

However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to those of the larger network carriers. As 

demand continues to slowly recover, increased financial pressures on regional operators have appeared. 

Furthermore, if a large network carrier should cease to exist (because of financial difficulties or merger), 

certain regional carriers could find themselves either saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient 

capacity, or lack of feed traffic. The experience of the Delta and Northwest bankruptcies saw opportunities 

for regional flying substantially reduced.

 

Business and corporate aviation witnessed a significant downturn in 2009. The length of the slow down 

and the terms of a recovery are largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate 

profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not 

limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential environmental 

regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on business jets, will place 

downward pressure on the forecast. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new 

entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates show that a record number 

of new business jet deliveries are overseas and, with the potential of loosening regulations on the use of 

airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet manufacturers looks all the more promising. 

Raising the amount of security restrictions, and subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, 

could make corporate jet travel increasingly appealing. A combination of some of these favorable factors 

may reach a tipping point, leading to a large on-demand air taxi industry. Although acknowledging the 

possibility of such an outcome, given recent trends and the large amount uncertainty, the FAA takes a more 

conservative view on the future prospects of such an industry. 

The mix of aircraft operating at most large hubs is also expected to become increasingly complex 

over the forecast period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will 

increase the complexities of the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. The 

increased complexity of the mix of aircraft serves to compound the increases in workload strictly due to the 

increasing demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period. 

Although activity at most U.S. airports fell in 2009, delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. 

airports and at four airports (ATL, CLT, DEN, and PHL) delays reached record levels. As demand recovers 

and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast 

period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload are unconstrained in that they assume that there 

will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

54

inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand 

and workload would not be achieved. The Department of Transportation and the FAA are examining a 

number of options to manage congestion, but the specific measures to be implemented and therefore their 

impact are unknown at this time.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the ability of 

the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new 

construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. 

Concerns about the climate impacts of aviation emissions are also growing. Although aviation currently 

accounts for 2 to 3 percent of climate change impacts, greenhouse emissions from the sector are expected 

to grow unless aggressively mitigated with new technology, renewable fuels, operational improvements and 

market measures. Market measures intended to control emissions, e.g., various emissions trading systems 

and charges being discussed, would add significant costs to the aviation sector that could effectively 

reduce available funds for needed investments in new technology. Energy concerns are also rising, driven 

by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and the concerns about fossil fuel contributions to 

global climate change. Lack of progress on improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future 

fleet can drive more restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service, which in turn 

can depress growth By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable 

fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast.
55

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

APPENDIX A 

ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS

Uncertainty abounds in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. Increasingly, the 

FAA has been requested to provide alternative scenarios to their baseline forecasts. These requests come 

from policy makers, private industry, associations, and consultants. This year, the FAA has responded to its 

customers, fully understanding that more information, not less, will help stakeholders to better prepare for 

the future.

To create the baseline forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international regions from Global 

Insight’s October 2009 forecast were used to generate enplanements, mainline real yield, and nominal 

yield. The baseline forecast of passenger trip length (an input variable used to forecast mainline real yield) 

was derived from recent historical trends and analyst judgment. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in the September 2009 edition of 

Global Insight’s U.S. long range forecast were used. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the 

baseline scenario inputs to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. The baseline 

forecast trip length was adjusted in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on the movement of oil 

prices in Global Insight’s alternative forecasts relative to the baseline forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by GDP Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP 

for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts of 

GDP described above in order to create a high and low case.

Scenario Assumptions

FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and suffers no 

major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, or financial meltdowns. In 

the alternative scenarios, the economy is postulated to proceed smoothly as well, however at a different 

pace than projected under the baseline forecast. Projections for economic growth in Global Insight’s 

alternative scenarios are rooted in demographics. In Global Insight’s optimistic forecast scenario, 

population grows more rapidly than in the baseline due to higher net immigration. The reverse is true 

for the pessimistic forecast; population grows more slowly than the baseline forecast due to slower net 

immigration.

FAA’s high case forecast uses Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast is characterized 

by lower inflation and faster growth in the labor force and capital stock than in the baseline forecast. In 

this scenario productivity growth is higher and potential output climbs more rapidly, with GDP (used as an 

input variable to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements) growing about 0.7 percentage 

points quicker per year than the baseline forecast. Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast is based on Global 

Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In the low case forecast, inflation runs higher and the labor force and capital 

stock growth run lower than in the baseline. As a result, the U.S. economy grows 0.7 percentage points 

slower per year than in the baseline due to slower productivity and lower potential output growth. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

56

The level of oil prices are determinants in the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact 

on the profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices remain high by historical standards. 

In the baseline forecast, oil prices rise as the world economy recovers from the recession, but are kept in 

check as technological improvements act as a counterbalance to rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners 

acquisition cost (RAC) of oil almost doubles between 2009 and 2030, rising from $54 to $104 per barrel. In 

the high case, RAC increases at a slower pace landing at $87 per barrel at the end of the forecast period. 

The high case is characterized by availability of energy and gains in technology which help to temper prices 

compared to the baseline. In the low case forecast, scarcity of oil and lower productivity gains create 

upward pressure in oil prices. In this scenario, RAC rises to $141 by 2030.

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. 

In the high case forecast the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year 

(compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy prices, wages, and import prices 

grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the low case forecast the opposite assumptions hold with energy 

prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline. In the low case, CPI grows 

an average of 2.8 percent annually over the forecast period.

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

1.9

3.3 3.5 3.3

1.9 1.9

2.6 2.7 2.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

U.S. REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL YEARS 2009, 2015, 2030

56.1

48.3

72.7

86.6

93.9

140.6

86.9

54.2

104.4

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2009 2015 2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

$ Per Barrel
57

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The baseline passenger trip length forecast is predicated upon analyst judgment and recent trip length 

trends. Carrier behavior as a result of volatile fuel prices during 2008 was the basis for adjusting trip 

length in the alternative forecasts. During 2008, high fuel costs made flying of some longer haul routes 

cost prohibitive (thus unprofitable), resulting in lower trip length compared to prior years. Since the FAA’s 

low case forecast is depicted by higher fuel prices relative to the baseline forecast, it is assumed that trip 

length rises at a slower pace than in the baseline forecast. In FAA’s high forecast, fuel prices are lower than 

projected in the baseline, pushing trip length up as lower fuel prices make flying longer-haul routes more 

affordable.

Alternative Forecasts

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent 

per year over the forecast horizon (with domestic and international passengers up 2.4 and 4.0 percent, 

respectively), notching one billion passengers in the year 2023. In the high case, passengers grow at a 

quicker pace, averaging 3.3 percent per year (up 3.1 percent domestically and 4.8 percent internationally). 

This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. In the high case, one 

billion passengers are forecast for 2021, two years earlier than predicted in the baseline forecast. The low 

case is characterized by increased costs of capital resulting from higher interest rates, weakened consumer 

confidence brought on by rising unemployment, and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow an 

average of 1.9 percent per year (domestic up 1.8 percent and international up 2.8 percent). In the low case, 

one billion passengers are reached in 2028, five years behind the baseline forecast.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – ALL URBAN CONSUMERS 

FISCAL YEARS 2009-2030

2.8

1.7 1.5

1.7

2.3

3.1

1.9

1.9

1.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

58

Revenue Passenger Miles

The forecast of RPMs is produced by multiplying assumptions for trip length in each forecast scenario by 

passengers from the same scenario. Thus, the assumptions used to create the trip length and passenger 

forecasts drive RPM growth. In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 

3.5 percent per year, with domestic RPMs up 3.1 percent annually and international RPMs up 4.4 percent 

annually. In the high case, a more optimistic economic environment drives RPMs higher than the baseline, 

with growth averaging 4.3 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.9 and 5.2 percent, 

respectively). In the low case, a more pessimistic economic environment slows RPM growth to an average 

of 2.5 percent annually (up 2.2 percent domestically and up 3.2 percent internationally).

SYSTEM ENPLANEMENTS

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

1.9

3.3

3.1

3.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.6 2.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

SYSTEM REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

2.4

4.3

3.9

4.4

1.7

2.6

3.2

3.5 3.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
59

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Available Seat Miles

The available seat miles (capacity) forecast is developed by multiplying revenue passenger miles by 

load factor. In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.4 percent annually 

over the 21-year forecast horizon (with average growth of 2.9 percent domestically and 4.3 percent 

internationally). In the high case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 

growth of 4.1 percent annually (up 3.7 percent domestically and up 5.0 percent internationally). Carriers 

increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought 

about by a more favorable economic environment. In the low case, demand for air travel is lower than in 

the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.4 percent annually (domestic up 2.1 percent 

annually and international up 3.0 percent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 21-year forecast period are relatively the same for all three forecast scenarios, 

rising from 79.7 percent in 2009 to 82.5 percent in 2030. In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers 

will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet 

demand (passengers). The domestic load factor slowly grows from 80.4 percent to 83.2 percent over the 

forecast horizon, while the international load factor grows from 78.1 to just over 81.0 percent during the 

same period.

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.1 percent annually, going from 12.5 cents in 2009 

to 15.9 cents in 2030. On a domestic basis, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 12.8 cents in 2009 to 

16.1 cents in 2030, while international yield rises from 11.8 cents to 15.6 cents. System yield rises more 

SYSTEM A VA ILABLE SEA T MILES

FISCAL Y EA RS 2009 - 2030

2.4

4.1

3.4

4.4

1.7

2.6 2.8

3.4 3.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

60

slowly in the high case, up 0.7 percent annually to be 14.5 cents at the end of the forecast period (domestic 

and international yield increase to 14.7 cents and 13.9 cents, respectively). The slower growth in yield in 

the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and 

lower inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market fares are 

driven lower than baseline levels due to increased market overlap between low cost and legacy carriers. 

In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on 

fares. In the low case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.3 

percent annually, reaching 20.3 cents by 2030 (21.0 cents domestically and 19.0 cents internationally). 

This scenario reflects higher inflation than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover 

the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital. 

Passenger Trip Length

Over the 21-year forecast horizon, baseline system passenger trip length is assumed to grow an average of 

10.5 miles per year. In the high case, passenger trip length grows 1.0 mile faster per year than in the base 

case at 11.5 miles per year. In the high case, fuel prices are lower than in the baseline which allows carriers 

to operate longer-haul routes more profitably. Conversely, the low forecast is characterized by fuel prices 

that are higher than the baseline forecast. Higher fuel costs makes flying longer-haul routes less affordable 

to the carriers; hence passenger trip length trails the baseline forecast by 3.0 miles per year, growing an 

average of 7.5 miles per year.
61

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS*

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Variable Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 09-30

EconomicAssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product(BIL 05$)Refiners Acquisition Cost -Average - $ Per BarrelReal Personal ConsumptionExpenditures - (BIL 05$)Consumer Price IndexAll Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0Real Disposable Income(BIL 05$)Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

12,972 12,996 13,003 

56.1 54.2 48.3 

9,190 9,212 9,214 

2.14 2.14 2.13 

9,923 9,949 9,978 

8.5 8.5 8.4 

12,936 13,189 13,386 

67.5 61.9 40.6 

9,156 9,319 9,449 

2.16 2.17 2.14 

9,807 

10,002 10,207 

10.5 10.0 

9.5 

14,511 15,233 15,936 

93.9 86.9 72.7 

9,876 

10,466 10,996 

2.45 2.39 2.33 

10,719 11,292 11,827 

7.9 7.4 7.0 

16,206 17,392 18,655 

103.7 

92.8 89.0 

10,960 11,850 12,805 

2.80 2.62 2.56 

12,470 13,162 14,111 

5.8 5.6 5.2

19,298 22,382 25,886 

140.6 104.4 

86.6 

13,019 15,194 18,128 

3.84 3.16 3.01 

15,216 16,942 19,616 

5.5 5.2 4.8

-0.3%

1.5%2.9%

20.4%14.2%

-15.9%

-0.4%

1.2%2.6%1.2%1.4%0.3%

-1.2%

0.5%2.3%

2.01.51.1

1.9%2.7%3.4%9.0%8.2%7.0%1.2%2.1%3.0%2.3%1.9%1.5%1.3%2.1%2.9%

-0.1-0.2-0.2

2.3%2.8%3.4%4.4%4.1%8.2%1.8%2.4%3.1%2.6%1.9%1.8%2.4%2.8%3.3%

-0.5-0.4-0.4

1.9%2.6%3.3%4.5%3.2%2.8%1.7%2.4%3.3%2.8%1.9%1.7%2.1%2.6%3.3%

-0.1-0.2-0.2

* Source: Global Insight U.S. Macro ForecastBaseline: Oct 2009; Optimistic: Sept 2009; Pessimistic: Sept 2009
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

62

TA

BLE

A-2

FAA FORECAST

OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVIT

Y

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Variable

Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 10-30

DomesticAviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles(BIL)Revenue Passenger Miles(BIL)Enplanements(MIL)Miles Flown(MIL)Departures(000s)Nominal Passenger 

Yield

(cents)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

683.8 683.8 683.8 549.5 549.5 549.5 631.3 631.3 631.3 

5,608.7 5,608.7 5,608.7 9,084.6 9,084.6 9,084.6 

12.84 12.84 12.84 

665.8 676.2 686.9 543.0 551.5 560.2 624.6 634.1 642.6 

5,475.9 5,562.7 5,648.8 8,827.1 8,952.2 9,091.5 

13.34 13.34 13.10 

749.2 788.5 828.7 617.8 650.3 683.6 692.4 723.1 753.9 

6,149.8 6,476.1 6,802.4 9,543.9 9,897.7 

10,385.3 

14.79 14.18 13.52 

849.3 926.5 997.2 703.7 767.8 826.7 768.1 821.4 876.0

6,949.8 7,581.2 8,160.3 

10,363.0 10,990.1 11,795.5 

16.38 14.73 13.99

1,048.8 1,253.6 1,460.2 

872.2 

1,042.6 1,215.0 

908.3 

1,045.6 1,195.8 8,482.8 

10,139.4 11,810.7 11,834.0 13,487.0 15,512.7 

20.95 16.08 14.72

-2.6%-1.1%

0.4%

-1.2%

0.4%1.9%

-1.1%

0.4%1.8%

-2.4%-0.8%

0.7%

-2.8%-1.5%

0.1%3.9%3.9%2.0%

1.5%2.4%3.3%2.0%2.8%3.7%1.6%2.3%3.0%1.5%2.4%3.3%0.8%1.4%2.3%2.4%1.7%0.9%

2.5%3.2%3.8%2.6%3.4%4.0%2.1%2.6%3.1%2.4%3.1%3.7%1.6%2.1%2.6%2.1%1.0%0.7%

2.1%2.9%3.7%2.2%3.1%3.9%1.7%2.4%3.1%2.0%2.9%3.6%1.3%1.9%2.6%2.4%1.1%0.7%
63

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TA

BLE

A-3

FAA FORECAST

OF INTER

NATIO

NAL AVIATION ACTIVIT

Y

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Variable

Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 10-30

InternationalAviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles(BIL)Revenue Passenger Miles(BIL)Enplanements(MIL)Miles Flown(MIL)Departures(000s)Nominal Passenger 

Yield

(cents)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

281.7 281.7 281.7 220.1 220.1 220.1 

72.7 72.7 72.7 

1,298.7 1,298.7 1,298.7 

550.9 550.9 550.9 11.81 11.81 11.81 

269.1 274.0 275.1 216.9 220.7 221.7 

72.2 73.4 74.3 

1,244.0 1,266.1 1,271.7 

534.4 543.0 549.7 12.34 12.34 11.40 

316.1 347.3 353.0 255.4 280.5 285.3 

82.8 90.6 93.1 

1,443.4 1,585.8 1,611.2 

595.3 648.7 666.9 13.98 13.66 12.47

380.2 436.8 456.1 307.9 353.2 369.3 

97.4 

111.1 117.4 

1,715.9 1,968.8 2,056.4 

679.5 771.8 814.9 15.27 14.27 13.01

523.6 675.6 787.6 425.5 547.9 639.8 129.4 164.5 193.2 

2,317.8 2,985.1 3,479.2 

860.2 

1,088.2 1,274.2 

19.01 15.55 13.93

-4.5%-2.8%-2.3%-1.5%

0.3%0.7%

-0.7%

0.9%2.2%

-4.2%-2.5%-2.1%-3.0%-1.4%-0.2%

4.5%4.5%

-3.5%

1.9%3.5%3.8%2.5%4.1%4.4%2.2%3.7%4.2%1.8%3.4%3.7%1.3%2.8%3.2%2.9%2.5%0.9%

3.5%4.8%5.2%3.6%4.8%5.2%3.0%4.2%4.7%3.3%4.5%4.9%2.4%3.6%4.0%2.2%1.5%1.3%

3.0%4.3%5.0%3.2%4.4%5.2%2.8%4.0%4.8%2.8%4.0%4.8%2.1%3.3%4.1%2.3%1.3%0.8%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

64
65

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

APPENDIX B 

FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only 

statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment, and reliance on industry knowledge 

and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s 

annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not 

surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA 

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. 

Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable 

variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast metrics 

during the FY 2003–FY 2009 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced industry upheaval, 

FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For these reasons, inclusion of prior 

periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive, or inaccurate, implications about the 

accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the eventual results 

for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance 

by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the 3 Years 

column for ASM shows the mean absolute percent error was 8.9 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 

3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2006, FY 2007, 

FY 2008 and FY 2009 occurred in FY 2004, FY 2005, FY 2006, and FY 2007 respectively.11 

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. 

Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast 

11 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted 

year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. This also means that the 5 Years column in the table above consists of only two 

observation points, while the 4 Years column is based upon three observations.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

66

is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative 

variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. 

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined, show declining 

variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest variances were found in 

the forecasts of ASMs and Yield, the two variables most directly affected by carrier business decisions. 

However, for both of these variables the largest declines in variance occur between Year 3 and Year 1. 

Second, the FAA’s forecast model produces relatively small variances for both of the passenger traffic 

metrics, Enplanements and RPMs, with none of the forecast variances exceeding 11.0 percent for any 

forecast time horizon examined. Third, the relative divergence in forecast variances between RPMs and 

ASMs suggests errors in forecasting load factor.

The examination of the forecast variances over time suggests two primary implications. First, added focus 

on load factor might improve the model. Currently, load factor is calculated by dividing the forecast RPMs 

by forecast ASMs. The large difference between the RPM forecast variance and ASM forecast variance 

beyond Year 2, indicates a relatively large variance in the forecast of load factor, one of the critical elements 

in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. However, the difference between the RPM forecast 

variance and ASM forecast variance narrows as the time horizon shortens, suggesting that the near 

term load factor forecasts are coming closer to the mark. All other things being equal, large variances in 

forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can 

been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft handled forecasts. 

Furthermore, ASMs are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond a relatively short time horizon, 

as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The relatively large variances in the ASM forecasts 

suggest that carriers have reacted by permanently removing capacity. Such capacity reductions can be 

identified in the short term by using advance schedule information. However, FAA’s longer-term forecasts 

rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic 

activity and capacity deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer 

term ASM forecasts, a simpler approach, such as RPMs divided by load factor, may improve the long run 

accuracy of the ASM forecasts. 
67

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

APPENDIX C 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of 

Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following individuals were 

responsible for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers:

– Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236

– Cargo Andrea Schandler (202) 267-3323

General Aviation:

– Forecasts Fahad Ahmad (202) 267-3285

– Survey Data Fahad Ahmad (202) 267-3285

FAA Workload Measures:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

– Data Information Systems Branch, APO-130

Unmanned Aircraft 

Systems: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Space: John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, 

AST-100 (202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation: Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff 

Forecast Conference 

Planner: Linda Baranovics (202) 267-7924

APO Websites:

– Forecasts/Statistical 

 Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

– APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email:

– APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

68
69

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

FORECAST TABLES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

70

TA

BLE 1

U.

S. S

HORT-TERM ECO

NOMIC FORECASTS

ECONOMIC

VARIABLE

FISCAL 

YEAR 2010 FISCAL 

YEAR 2011

1ST. QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

Real GDP(Billions of 2005$)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateRefiners’ Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateConsumer 

Price Index1

(1982-84 equals 100)Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

13,097.9

2.6%

66.54

12.2%

216.4

2.1%

13,155.3

1.8%

61.63

-26.4%

216.2

-0.3%

13,214.5

1.8%

60.68

-6.0%

216.7

1.0%

13,286.6

2.2%

63.52

20.1%

217.8

2.0%

13,374.6

2.7%

66.37

19.1%

218.9

2.0%

13,466.7

2.8%

69.21

18.3%

220.2

2.5%

13,585.4

3.6%

72.05

17.5%

221.6

2.5%

13,708.8

3.7%

74.90

16.7%

223.0

2.6%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.
71

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TA

BLE 2

U.

S. LO

N

G-TERM ECO

NOMIC FORECASTS

FISCALYEAR

GROSS

DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(Billions 2005$)

CONSUMER PRICE

INDEX

(1982-84=100)

REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

AVERAGE

(Dollars per barrel)

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

11,145.912,553.812,898.313,171.413,374.512,995.913,188.613,533.914,024.114,469.814,852.615,233.215,612.115,995.216,414.816,876.817,391.617,858.118,318.418,794.219,272.819,783.020,300.220,802.121,317.621,832.422,381.6

1.7%1.5%2.8%2.6%

170.74193.48200.62205.30214.42213.78216.75220.93225.74229.95234.38238.86243.61248.36253.16257.90262.39266.95271.60276.34281.42286.72292.14297.76303.45309.45315.71

2.5%1.4%1.9%1.9%

26.7047.2059.9460.59

101.52

54.2261.9269.2576.4780.2183.3486.9090.7593.0294.7494.5092.8290.8289.5888.4289.7091.7993.7795.7098.45

101.47104.45

8.2%

14.2%

4.1%3.2%

Source: 2009-2030; Global Insight, US Economic Outlook, October 2009. Extrapolated to 2030.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

72

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

CALENDAR

YEAR

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

CANADA

EUROPE/

AFRICA/

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA/

MEXICO

JAPAN/PACIFIC

BASIN/CHINA/OTHER

ASIA/AUSTRALIA/

N. ZEALAND

WORLD

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

1,000.21,134.11,166.51,196.01,200.91,170.21,195.41,236.61,280.81,321.71,359.21,393.71,427.01,459.81,493.41,527.51,560.21,593.11,625.61,659.71,693.71,728.31,764.31,800.61,839.71,878.81,918.4

1.8%2.1%2.7%2.4%

15,280.317,061.517,709.718,291.918,541.817,910.518,144.718,513.818,978.419,492.920,035.120,550.821,063.721,576.622,094.922,623.623,156.323,690.724,223.824,762.825,314.725,873.726,442.027,018.527,604.928,198.428,803.2

1.8%1.3%2.5%2.3%

2,162.72,454.02,587.02,726.92,833.22,759.62,848.82,972.23,101.93,229.33,356.33,482.33,611.53,744.73,881.04,022.44,166.44,315.14,467.94,625.84,788.14,956.25,130.15,308.45,491.85,681.15,876.3

2.7%3.2%3.9%3.7%

8,837.1

10,743.311,327.312,014.012,379.012,384.712,966.213,579.714,284.615,069.315,903.416,760.817,599.518,425.119,266.720,130.321,011.621,923.022,852.123,812.924,819.325,866.826,938.728,054.729,192.330,358.431,551.9

3.8%4.7%4.9%4.6%

39,702.445,612.147,468.349,310.950,186.149,040.550,286.651,897.753,835.855,806.257,817.159,821.861,808.963,793.865,845.867,986.470,188.672,376.574,595.376,877.779,236.881,684.484,164.786,696.889,281.291,915.894,639.4

2.4%2.5%3.4%3.2%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.
73

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TA

BLE 4

INTER

NATIO

NAL GDP FORECASTS — SELECTED AREAS

/COUNTRIES

CALENDAR

YEAR

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

AMERICA

(NAFTA)

EUROZONE UNITED

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

13,001.714,621.615,035.415,372.515,448.215,019.715,346.515,806.216,383.816,873.517,326.117,768.218,211.518,662.919,155.619,699.220,272.820,796.521,325.721,870.322,421.523,008.123,592.024,167.724,758.625,353.725,992.5

1.6%2.2%2.8%2.6%

9,380.0

10,116.310,430.910,714.310,773.610,346.010,435.110,577.610,758.710,976.811,208.411,412.511,615.611,816.212,014.412,219.512,420.712,623.212,823.313,025.013,232.613,440.813,651.113,862.114,075.014,287.414,500.8

1.1%0.9%1.8%1.6%

2,014.82,279.32,344.32,404.32,417.52,311.52,335.12,371.62,428.12,493.42,564.52,630.42,693.82,756.62,820.82,885.72,951.43,017.63,082.13,147.23,212.63,277.83,345.73,416.03,487.03,558.13,631.8

1.5%1.0%2.4%2.2%

4,272.24,556.74,649.44,755.64,722.64,447.74,495.94,562.44,655.24,764.54,878.34,985.15,060.65,104.35,139.85,170.25,196.55,218.25,238.15,257.25,276.15,294.45,312.65,331.65,352.15,372.25,389.7

0.4%1.1%1.5%0.9%

1,420.52,244.12,504.42,830.03,083.53,333.33,669.53,990.44,332.94,724.85,156.65,610.26,069.76,544.07,043.37,565.38,109.78,687.09,279.09,897.1

10,548.411,228.211,923.612,652.013,389.414,142.814,916.0

9.9%

10.1%

8.3%7.4%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

74

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

641.2669.5668.4690.1681.3631.3634.1645.7667.7687.8705.5723.1740.6758.2777.4798.3821.4842.5863.3884.7906.4929.3952.4974.9997.9

1,021.01,045.5

-0.2%

0.4%2.6%2.4%

56.467.471.675.377.872.773.476.379.783.286.990.694.398.1

102.2106.5111.1115.7120.5125.3130.3135.6141.1146.7152.4158.3164.5

2.9%0.9%4.2%4.0%

697.6737.0740.0765.3759.1704.0707.4722.0747.3771.1792.4813.7834.9856.3879.6904.8932.6958.2983.7

1,010.11,036.71,064.91,093.51,121.51,150.31,179.31,210.0

0.1%0.5%2.8%2.6%

512.8 573.2 582.4 600.5 595.3549.5551.5561.5585.5608.3629.1650.3671.1692.4715.4740.4767.8792.9818.1844.2870.8899.0927.0954.7983.2

1,012.11,042.6

0.8%0.4%3.4%3.1%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.1220.1220.7231.0242.7254.9267.6280.5293.8307.3321.6336.9353.2369.6386.4403.8422.0441.2461.1481.6502.8524.8547.9

2.1%0.3%4.8%4.4%

694.6770.4790.9821.7828.5769.7772.2792.5828.2863.2896.7930.8964.9999.7

1,037.01,077.31,120.91,162.41,204.41,248.11,292.81,340.21,388.11,436.21,486.01,536.81,590.6

1.1%0.3%3.8%3.5%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
75

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCAL

YEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

726.6755.2740.2752.5750.5683.8676.2686.7714.1740.2764.0788.5812.7837.6864.6894.1926.5956.3986.1

1,017.21,048.81,082.51,115.81,148.71,182.71,217.11,253.6

-0.7%-1.1%

3.2%2.9%

512.8573.2582.4600.5595.3549.5551.5561.5585.5608.3629.1650.3671.1692.4715.4740.4767.8792.9818.1844.2870.8899.0927.0954.7983.2

1,012.11,042.6

0.8%0.4%3.4%3.1%

70.675.978.779.879.380.481.681.882.082.282.382.582.682.782.782.882.982.983.083.083.083.183.183.183.183.283.2

239.3248.5261.3275.9291.9281.7274.0286.9301.2316.1331.7347.6363.9380.5398.0416.8436.8456.9477.6499.0521.2544.7569.1594.3620.3647.2675.6

1.8%

-2.8%

4.8%4.3%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.1220.1220.7231.0242.7254.9267.6280.5293.8307.3321.6336.9353.2369.6386.4403.8422.0441.2461.1481.6502.8524.8547.9

2.1%0.3%4.8%4.4%

76.079.479.880.279.978.180.680.580.680.680.780.780.780.880.880.880.980.980.980.981.081.081.081.081.181.181.1

965.9

1,003.61,001.51,028.41,042.4

965.5950.2973.7

1,015.21,056.31,095.81,136.11,176.61,218.11,262.61,310.91,363.31,413.21,463.71,516.21,570.11,627.21,684.91,743.01,803.01,864.31,929.2

0.0%

-1.6%

3.7%3.4%

694.6770.4790.9821.7828.5769.7772.2792.5828.2863.2896.7930.8964.9999.7

1,037.01,077.31,120.91,162.41,204.41,248.11,292.81,340.21,388.11,436.21,486.01,536.81,590.6

1.1%0.3%3.8%3.5%

71.976.879.079.979.579.781.381.481.681.781.881.982.082.182.182.282.282.382.382.382.382.482.482.482.482.482.4

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

76

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

(Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

20.921.622.524.126.024.724.125.326.327.328.329.330.231.232.333.434.635.836.938.139.440.742.043.344.646.047.5

1.9%

-2.5%

3.7%3.1%

24.332.535.237.638.735.937.138.540.242.043.945.847.749.751.854.156.659.161.764.367.069.972.975.979.082.285.6

4.4%3.3%4.3%4.2%

11.213.213.913.613.212.012.112.513.213.914.615.516.317.218.119.019.920.921.922.923.925.126.227.528.730.131.4

0.8%0.7%5.1%4.7%

56.467.471.675.377.872.773.476.379.783.286.990.694.398.1

102.2106.5111.1115.7120.5125.3130.3135.6141.1146.7152.4158.3164.5

2.9%0.9%4.2%4.0%

87.189.593.9

102.2112.7108.9106.8112.4117.7122.9128.1133.0138.0143.1148.6154.6160.9167.0173.2179.6186.2193.1200.2207.4214.7222.2230.2

2.5%

-1.9%

4.2%3.6%

36.348.653.657.760.056.558.561.264.668.372.376.380.584.889.394.399.8

105.6111.5117.7124.1130.9138.1145.5153.1161.1169.6

5.0%3.7%5.5%5.4%

58.459.261.161.460.454.755.457.460.363.667.371.275.279.483.688.092.497.0

101.7106.6111.7117.1122.8128.7135.0141.4148.1

-0.7%

1.2%5.3%4.9%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.1220.1220.7231.0242.7254.9267.6280.5293.8307.3321.6336.9353.2369.6386.4403.8422.0441.2461.1481.6502.8524.8547.9

2.1%0.3%4.8%4.4%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
77

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

CALENDAR

YEAR

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC U.S./CANADA TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

53.049.949.853.357.154.956.859.462.665.668.671.474.277.180.283.586.990.193.496.7

100.1103.7107.3110.9114.5118.3122.2

0.4%3.4%4.4%3.9%

40.844.247.148.649.847.649.251.654.356.859.361.964.567.370.273.376.679.983.386.990.594.598.5

102.6106.9111.4116.1

1.7%3.4%4.5%4.3%

26.025.125.626.325.824.125.126.828.930.932.934.936.838.640.542.544.546.648.750.953.255.658.060.663.265.968.8

-0.8%

3.8%5.9%5.1%

20.819.721.021.521.420.421.021.822.823.724.625.426.227.027.928.929.930.931.932.933.935.036.137.238.439.640.8

-0.2%

2.8%3.6%3.4%

140.6139.0143.5149.7154.1147.1152.0159.6168.6177.0185.4193.6201.8210.0218.8228.2238.0247.6257.3267.4277.8288.7299.9311.3323.1335.1347.9

0.5%3.3%4.6%4.2%

* Sources: Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America, INS Form I-92, U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S./Canada Transborder, Transport Canada.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

78

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCALYEAR

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

DOMESTIC

(Seats)

INT’L.

(Seats)

SYSTEM

(Seats)

DOMESTIC

(Miles)

INT’L.

(Miles)

SYSTEM

(Miles)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

129.3120.4120.1120.4120.6121.9121.6121.6121.7121.7121.7121.8121.8121.9121.9122.1122.2122.4122.5122.6122.8122.8123.0123.2123.3123.4123.6

230.6217.1215.0215.9217.2216.9216.4217.0217.5218.1218.6219.2219.8220.4220.9221.4221.9222.3222.7223.2223.6224.1224.5225.0225.4225.9226.3

145.0135.3135.7136.6137.8139.8139.1139.7140.0140.3140.6140.9141.3141.6142.0142.4142.8143.2143.6144.0144.4144.7145.2145.7146.1146.5147.0

799.8856.2871.4870.2873.9870.5869.8869.5877.0884.4891.7899.3906.3913.2920.3927.4934.7941.1947.6954.2960.8967.4973.4979.3985.2991.2997.2

3,223.22,924.62,911.52,939.32,994.93,027.33,008.53,028.73,046.03,062.93,080.53,097.93,114.83,131.33,147.33,163.03,178.03,192.93,207.63,222.43,237.43,252.63,267.93,283.53,299.33,315.13,330.9

995.7

1,045.41,068.81,073.71,091.41,093.21,091.61,097.71,108.21,119.51,131.71,144.01,155.71,167.41,179.01,190.61,202.01,213.11,224.41,235.61,247.01,258.51,269.41,280.61,291.81,303.21,314.5

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
79

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

(Millions)

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Billions)

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

561.5 523.1516.2533.9522.2477.6473.3479.5495.7510.2522.6535.1547.6560.1573.7588.6605.1620.0634.6649.6664.8680.7696.8712.3728.2744.1760.9

-1.8%-0.9%

2.5%2.2%

53.364.268.171.974.370.270.773.576.880.383.887.491.194.998.8

103.0107.5112.1116.7121.4126.3131.5136.8142.3147.9153.7159.8

3.1%0.8%4.3%4.0%

614.8587.3584.4605.7596.5547.7544.0553.0572.5590.4606.4622.6638.7655.0672.5691.7712.7732.0751.2771.1791.1812.2833.6854.6876.2897.8920.7

-1.3%-0.7%

2.7%2.5%

490.0509.6513.9529.9522.0479.4478.6485.8505.9524.6541.4558.6575.6592.8611.5631.8654.1674.5694.8716.0737.4760.0782.6804.9827.8850.9875.4

-0.2%-0.2%

3.2%2.9%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.3218.8219.4229.6241.2253.3266.0278.8292.0305.5319.7334.9351.1367.5384.2401.6419.6438.7458.5478.9500.1522.0545.0

2.1%0.2%4.8%4.4%

670.9705.4720.7749.4753.3698.2697.9715.4747.1777.9807.4837.4867.6898.3931.2966.8

1,005.21,041.91,079.01,117.51,157.01,198.71,241.11,283.81,327.91,372.91,420.4

0.4%0.0%3.7%3.4%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

80

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

688.3665.1648.7659.0651.0589.4579.9588.0610.3631.1649.8669.1688.4708.1729.6753.1779.0802.6826.3851.0875.9902.4928.8954.8981.6

1,008.71,037.3

-1.7%-1.6%

3.0%2.7%

490.0509.6513.9529.9522.0479.4478.6485.8505.9524.6541.4558.6575.6592.8611.5631.8654.1674.5694.8716.0737.4760.0782.6804.9827.8850.9875.4

-0.2%-0.2%

3.2%2.9%

71.276.679.280.480.281.382.582.682.983.183.383.583.683.783.883.984.084.084.184.184.284.284.384.384.384.484.4

238.0246.3258.9273.4289.3279.9272.0284.9299.0314.0329.5345.3361.5378.0395.5414.2434.1454.1474.7496.0518.2541.6565.9590.9616.9643.6671.9

1.8%

-2.8%

4.8%4.3%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.3218.8219.4229.6241.2253.3266.0278.8292.0305.5319.7334.9351.1367.5384.2401.6419.6438.7458.5478.9500.1522.0545.0

2.1%0.2%4.8%4.4%

76.079.579.980.379.978.280.680.680.680.780.780.880.880.880.880.980.980.980.981.081.081.081.081.181.181.181.1

926.2911.4907.6932.4940.3869.2852.0872.9909.3945.0979.3

1,014.41,049.91,086.21,125.11,167.31,213.11,256.81,301.01,347.01,394.11,444.01,494.71,545.71,598.51,652.31,709.2

-0.7%-2.0%

3.6%3.3%

670.9705.4720.7749.4753.3698.2697.9715.4747.1777.9807.4837.4867.6898.3931.2966.8

1,005.21,041.91,079.01,117.51,157.01,198.71,241.11,283.81,327.91,372.91,420.4

0.4%0.0%3.7%3.4%

72.477.479.480.480.180.381.982.082.282.382.482.682.682.782.882.882.982.982.983.083.083.083.083.183.183.183.1

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
81

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

20.921.622.524.126.024.724.125.326.327.328.329.330.231.232.333.434.635.836.938.139.440.742.043.344.646.047.5

1.9%

-2.5%

3.7%3.1%

21.229.331.734.235.133.434.535.737.339.140.942.744.546.448.450.653.055.457.960.463.065.868.671.674.677.680.9

5.2%3.2%4.4%4.3%

11.213.213.913.613.212.012.112.513.213.914.615.516.317.218.119.019.920.921.922.923.925.126.227.528.730.131.4

0.8%0.7%5.1%4.7%

53.364.268.171.974.370.270.773.576.880.383.887.491.194.998.8

103.0107.5112.1116.7121.4126.3131.5136.8142.3147.9153.7159.8

3.1%0.8%4.3%4.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

82

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

FISCAL

YEAR

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

109.9108.6115.8126.6141.0138.2130.6137.6144.1150.3156.5162.5168.5174.6181.2188.4196.0203.3210.7218.3226.2234.5242.9251.4260.2269.1278.7

2.6%

-5.5%

4.1%3.4%

87.189.593.9

102.2112.7108.9106.8112.4117.7122.9128.1133.0138.0143.1148.6154.6160.9167.0173.2179.6186.2193.1200.2207.4214.7222.2230.2

2.5%

-1.9%

4.2%3.6%

79.282.481.180.780.078.981.881.781.781.881.881.981.982.082.082.182.182.282.282.382.382.482.482.582.582.682.6

51.465.469.472.773.471.873.176.280.485.189.995.0

100.2105.6111.3117.6124.5131.7139.1146.9155.0163.5172.5181.8191.5201.5212.1

3.8%1.7%5.5%5.3%

35.547.251.955.958.255.257.259.863.166.870.674.678.783.087.592.497.8

103.4109.3115.4121.7128.5135.5142.8150.4158.3166.7

5.0%3.6%5.5%5.4%

69.072.274.976.979.376.878.278.478.578.578.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.678.6

76.672.373.774.174.969.968.371.074.678.683.087.892.897.8

103.0108.3113.7119.2124.9130.9137.1143.6150.5157.7165.2173.0181.1

-1.0%-2.2%

5.2%4.6%

58.459.261.161.460.454.755.457.460.363.667.371.275.279.483.688.092.497.0

101.7106.6111.7117.1122.8128.7135.0141.4148.1

-0.7%

1.2%5.3%4.9%

76.281.882.882.980.678.381.080.980.980.981.081.081.181.281.281.381.381.381.481.581.581.681.681.781.781.881.8

238.0246.3258.9273.4289.3279.9272.0284.9299.0314.0329.5345.3361.5378.0395.5414.2434.1454.1474.7496.0518.2541.6565.9590.9616.9643.6671.9

1.8%

-2.8%

4.8%4.3%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.3218.8219.4229.6241.2253.3266.0278.8292.0305.5319.7334.9351.1367.5384.2401.6419.6438.7458.5478.9500.1522.0545.0

2.1%0.2%4.8%4.4%

76.079.579.980.379.978.280.680.680.680.780.780.880.880.880.880.980.980.980.981.081.081.081.081.181.181.181.1

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
83

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC

INTERNATIONAL 

SYSTEM ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

(Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

148.8150.4150.5150.6150.0151.4150.6150.4150.5150.6150.7150.8150.9151.0151.0151.1151.1151.2151.2151.3151.4151.4151.5151.6151.6151.7151.9

233.7230.8229.4229.2229.2230.0230.5231.0231.5232.0232.5233.0233.5234.0234.5235.0235.5236.0236.5237.0237.5238.0238.5239.0239.5240.0240.5

179.5175.5175.2176.2177.8172.0172.5173.0173.5174.0174.5175.0175.5176.0176.5177.0177.5178.0178.5179.0179.5180.0180.5181.0181.5182.0182.5

307.8278.7274.4279.6280.6285.4286.2286.9287.7288.4289.2289.9290.7291.4292.2292.9293.7294.4295.2295.9296.7297.4298.2298.9299.7300.4301.2

236.6223.4221.4222.3223.4221.5221.3221.9222.3222.8223.3223.8224.3224.8225.2225.6226.0226.4226.7227.1227.5227.9228.3228.7229.1229.5229.9

164.5165.0165.7166.3166.9168.6167.7168.1168.4168.7169.2169.6170.0170.5170.8171.1171.4171.9172.2172.5172.9173.2173.6174.0174.4174.8175.2

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

84

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC

INTERNATIONAL 

SYSTEM ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

(Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

872.6974.1995.5992.7999.7

1,003.81,011.01,013.11,020.71,028.31,036.11,043.81,051.11,058.51,065.91,073.31,080.91,087.91,095.01,102.11,109.21,116.51,123.21,129.91,136.71,143.51,150.4

4,168.14,133.14,175.44,247.84,332.74,402.44,427.04,448.54,474.94,499.44,522.24,544.14,564.64,584.64,604.64,625.44,647.44,669.34,689.94,710.24,730.64,751.04,771.74,792.14,812.14,832.14,852.1

1,675.21,611.11,637.01,634.31,654.81,652.31,658.71,673.91,689.51,708.11,727.81,747.71,767.31,786.71,806.01,825.61,846.01,867.41,888.91,910.11,931.41,952.61,974.21,995.92,017.52,039.12,060.6

5,219.94,466.14,390.44,515.14,583.54,550.04,571.74,579.04,585.94,592.24,598.04,603.74,609.64,615.84,622.34,629.14,636.14,643.34,650.64,658.04,665.44,672.84,680.24,687.64,695.04,702.54,710.1

3,397.33,051.23,037.03,054.23,111.03,118.83,102.53,122.83,139.63,155.83,172.73,189.13,205.13,220.73,235.93,250.83,265.23,279.33,293.23,307.23,321.63,336.13,350.83,365.73,380.73,395.93,411.1

1,091.41,201.11,233.41,237.31,262.81,274.71,282.91,293.61,305.01,317.51,331.41,345.11,358.41,371.61,384.71,397.71,410.51,423.41,436.31,449.41,462.51,475.81,488.91,502.21,515.61,529.11,542.7

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
85

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2009 $

(Cents)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2009 $

(Cents)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2009 $

(Cents)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

14.0311.4512.3612.4513.0911.9612.3212.6912.8112.8912.9813.0713.1813.2913.4013.5013.5813.6713.7613.8613.9714.0814.2114.3514.4814.6314.78

-1.8%

3.0%1.0%1.0%

17.5612.6513.1712.9613.0511.9612.1512.2712.1311.9911.8411.7011.5711.4411.3111.1911.0610.9510.8310.7210.6110.5010.4010.3010.2010.1010.01

-4.2%

1.6%

-0.9%-0.8%

10.4610.8711.6312.4513.4211.6912.2213.0413.1913.3013.4213.5513.6813.8013.9314.0514.1614.2614.3714.4714.6014.7314.8614.9915.1315.2815.43

1.2%4.6%1.5%1.3%

13.0912.0112.4012.9713.3811.6912.0512.6212.4912.3712.2412.1212.0011.8811.7611.6511.5311.4211.3111.2011.0910.9810.8710.7610.6610.5510.45

-1.3%

3.1%

-0.4%-0.5%

13.0611.2912.1512.4513.1911.8812.2912.8012.9313.0313.1313.2313.3513.4713.5813.6913.7813.8813.9814.0814.2014.3214.4514.5914.7314.8715.03

-1.1%

3.5%1.1%1.1%

16.3612.4712.9512.9613.1511.8812.1212.3812.2512.1111.9711.8411.7211.5911.4711.3511.2311.1111.0010.8910.7810.6810.5710.4710.3710.2810.18

-3.5%

2.1%

-0.8%-0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

86

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA1 PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $

(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

9.73

10.7511.6412.4613.2911.2512.1012.9513.1013.2113.3313.4513.5813.7013.8313.9514.0514.1514.2514.3614.4714.6014.7314.8614.9915.1415.29

1.6%7.6%1.5%1.5%

12.1811.8812.4012.9713.2511.2511.9312.5312.4012.2812.1612.0411.9211.8011.6811.5611.4511.3311.2211.1111.0010.8910.7810.6710.5610.4610.35

-0.9%

6.1%

-0.4%-0.4%

13.0012.1612.6813.3714.1913.0513.3514.0314.1914.3114.4414.5714.7114.8514.9815.1115.2215.3315.4415.5515.6815.8215.9516.1016.2416.4016.56

0.0%2.3%1.3%1.1%

16.2813.4413.5213.9214.1513.0513.1713.5713.4413.3013.1713.0412.9112.7812.6512.5312.4012.2812.1512.0311.9111.7911.6711.5611.4411.3311.21

-2.4%

0.9%

-0.6%-0.7%

9.99

10.0410.7311.6112.7311.2011.3012.1812.3212.4312.5412.6512.7712.8913.0113.1213.2213.3113.4113.5113.6213.7413.8513.9814.1014.2414.38

1.3%0.9%1.6%1.2%

12.5111.0911.4312.0912.6911.2011.1411.7911.6711.5511.4411.3211.2111.1010.9910.8810.7710.6610.5510.4510.3410.2410.1410.04

9.949.849.74

-1.2%-0.5%-0.3%-0.7%

10.4610.8711.6312.4513.4211.6912.2213.0413.1913.3013.4213.5513.6813.8013.9314.0514.1614.2614.3714.4714.6014.7314.8614.9915.1315.2815.43

1.2%4.6%1.5%1.3%

13.0912.0112.4012.9713.3811.6912.0512.6212.4912.3712.2412.1212.0011.8811.7611.6511.5311.4211.3111.2011.0910.9810.8710.7610.6610.5510.45

-1.3%

3.1%

-0.4%-0.5%

1 Mainline Air Carrier Only* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
87

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $

(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

71.49

149.39194.69194.17292.56202.31212.19225.90247.43261.42272.36283.88296.30304.66310.81311.31306.96300.81296.35292.44295.10301.17307.57313.89322.37332.00341.73

12.3%

4.9%3.8%2.5%

89.51

165.06207.46202.19291.69202.31209.28218.59234.32243.04248.42254.07260.02262.24262.46258.06250.09240.90233.27226.24224.17224.55225.07225.36227.11229.36231.40

9.5%3.4%1.8%0.6%

79.35

157.26204.69203.31314.57208.41228.15242.90266.05281.09292.85305.24318.59327.58334.20334.74330.05323.44318.65314.45317.30323.82330.71337.50346.63356.97367.44

11.3%

9.5%3.8%2.7%

99.35

173.76218.12211.70313.64208.41225.02235.04251.95261.33267.11273.19279.58281.97282.21277.47268.90259.02250.81243.26241.04241.44242.01242.32244.20246.61248.81

8.6%8.0%1.8%0.8%

73.57

151.58197.72197.00299.67204.44217.35231.39253.45267.78278.98290.78303.50312.06318.37318.88314.42308.12303.55299.55302.27308.49315.04321.51330.21340.06350.03

12.0%

6.3%3.8%2.6%

92.11

167.48210.70205.13298.78204.44214.36223.91240.02248.95254.46260.25266.34268.61268.84264.33256.17246.75238.93231.74229.62230.01230.54230.84232.63234.93237.02

9.3%4.9%1.8%0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

88

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1

FISCALYEAR

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

 (Millions)

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS

(Millions)

DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

10,283.513,007.912,481.212,795.212,257.710,219.710,372.110,607.410,932.611,231.811,493.411,754.812,016.212,281.312,570.212,886.713,237.513,559.513,878.914,209.414,542.914,897.815,258.615,611.115,973.716,337.316,724.3

-0.1%

1.5%2.5%2.4%

7,573.1

14,581.215,475.216,164.415,587.412,058.112,688.813,590.214,635.015,737.216,910.618,128.519,390.320,706.622,118.823,634.125,270.626,980.828,769.230,665.032,693.034,865.837,144.639,559.242,095.344,775.247,615.7

5.3%5.2%7.1%6.8%

17,856.627,589.027,956.428,959.627,845.122,277.823,060.924,197.625,567.526,969.028,404.029,883.331,406.532,987.934,689.036,520.838,508.040,540.342,648.144,874.347,235.949,763.652,403.255,170.358,068.961,112.564,340.0

2.5%3.5%5.3%5.2%

4,415.23,081.73,229.43,022.82,152.91,640.21,636.81,645.61,666.91,682.81,691.61,699.21,705.61,711.31,719.01,729.01,742.11,749.91,755.81,761.61,766.31,772.01,776.81,779.01,780.81,781.01,782.2

-10.4%

-0.2%

0.6%0.4%

7,784.68,547.78,483.58,050.09,027.06,907.17,174.77,585.08,062.08,556.19,073.79,599.4

10,132.110,676.511,252.911,863.212,514.413,181.213,864.414,577.015,328.416,122.516,939.017,789.618,665.819,575.520,523.5

-1.3%

3.9%5.7%5.3%

12,199.911,629.511,712.811,072.811,179.9

8,547.48,811.59,230.59,728.9

10,238.910,765.311,298.611,837.712,387.812,971.913,592.214,256.514,931.015,620.216,338.517,094.717,894.518,715.819,568.620,446.621,356.522,305.7

-3.9%

3.1%4.9%4.7%

14,698.716,089.615,710.515,818.014,410.511,860.012,008.912,253.012,599.512,914.513,185.113,454.013,721.813,992.614,289.214,615.714,979.615,309.315,634.715,971.016,309.216,669.817,035.417,390.117,754.418,118.318,506.5

-2.4%

1.3%2.2%2.1%

15,357.823,128.923,958.724,214.424,614.418,965.319,863.521,175.222,696.924,293.325,984.327,727.829,522.331,383.233,371.735,497.337,785.040,162.042,633.645,241.948,021.450,988.354,083.657,348.860,761.164,350.768,139.2

2.4%4.7%6.6%6.3%

30,056.539,218.539,669.240,032.439,025.030,825.231,872.433,428.235,296.437,207.839,169.341,181.943,244.245,375.847,660.950,113.052,764.555,471.358,268.361,212.964,330.667,658.171,118.974,738.978,515.582,469.086,645.7

0.3%3.4%5.2%5.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1 Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
89

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 20

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDARYEAR

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE

JETS

REGIONAL

JETS

TOTAL

JETS 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

3,3643,3083,3023,3543,1703,0403,0033,0223,0753,1603,1863,2593,3103,3723,4573,5373,5803,5893,6703,7063,7983,8223,8583,9143,9724,0344,093

-1.1%-1.2%

1.8%1.4%

385

37262910

9987654431100000000000

-34.1%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

000011111100000000000000000

NA

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

3,7493,3453,3283,3833,1813,0503,0133,0313,0833,1673,1913,2633,3143,3753,4583,5383,5803,5893,6703,7063,7983,8223,8583,9143,9724,0344,093

-2.3%-1.2%

1.7%1.4%

424466463477470466477484490517533564578604622648676705745773804840873912945990

1,026

1.1%2.4%3.5%3.8%

169

291912

9

10101010

864200000000000000

-27.0%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

120

54494744404040404040382818

8642000000000

-11.5%

0.0%

-20.6%-20.6%

713549531536523516527534540565579606608622630654680707745773804840873912945990

1,026

-3.5%

2.1%2.6%3.3%

4,4623,8943,8593,9193,7043,5663,5403,5653,6233,7323,7703,8693,9223,9974,0884,1924,2604,2964,4154,4794,6024,6624,7314,8264,9175,0245,119

-2.5%-0.7%

1.9%1.7%

2612396491

100109124134146166182192196201206198198203203208208213213218218223

16.1%

9.0%6.2%3.9%

4,4883,9063,8983,9833,7953,6663,6493,6893,7573,8783,9364,0514,1144,1934,2894,3984,4584,4944,6184,6824,8104,8704,9445,0395,1355,2425,342

-2.2%-0.5%

2.0%1.8%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

90

TA

BLE 21

U.

S. MAI

NLI

N

E AIR CARRIERS

CARGO JET AIRCRA

F

T

CALENDARYEAR

LARGE NARROWBOD

Y LARGE WIDEBOD

Y

TOTAL

2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

166164162162161158164171180204236259279302323344361372383395406422439455471488504

-0.5%

3.8%8.2%5.7%

332233220162143107107107104

866247362515

500000000000

-11.8%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

176

9078756833323028262117

700000000000000

-17.0%

-3.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

674487460399372298303308312316319323322327338349361372383395406422439455471488504

-8.7%

1.7%1.8%2.5%

164246264276276259279297311321337354377398413431447463485512539571603635667699726

5.2%7.7%4.8%5.0%

158193208213215206207213218222226230234235235233233233227217207197187177167157152

3.0%0.5%1.2%

-1.4%

687580869791889193969698

100104107111114118121125128132135139142146149

3.3%

-3.3%

2.6%2.4%

390514552575588556574601622639659682711737755775794814833854874900925951976

1,0021,027

4.0%3.2%3.3%3.0%

1,0641,0011,012

974960854877909934955978

1,0051,0331,0641,0931,1241,1551,1861,2161,2491,2801,3221,3641,4061,4471,4901,531

-2.4%

2.7%2.8%2.8%
91

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 22

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

FISCALYEAR

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FUEL

CONSUMED

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1 GENERAL

AVIATION TOTAL AIR CARRIER GENERAL AVIATION TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

14,74613,97813,46113,53813,17911,47811,18211,18911,46211,70511,90412,10412,29112,48012,69312,93113,20213,42513,63913,86114,08114,31814,54014,74814,96015,16815,392

-2.7%-2.6%

1.7%1.4%

5,2975,3785,8516,0456,2895,7675,5255,7005,8956,0976,3036,5076,7116,9147,1257,3527,5907,8238,0558,2928,5338,7869,0459,3049,5699,836

10,115

0.9%

-4.2%

3.2%2.7%

20,04319,35619,31319,58319,46817,24416,70716,88917,35717,80218,20718,61119,00219,39419,81820,28320,79221,24721,69422,15322,61523,10423,58524,05324,52925,00425,507

-1.7%-3.1%

2.2%1.9%

972

1,5271,6431,4861,7061,3641,3561,5671,8072,0462,1202,1952,2702,3422,4072,4762,5482,6212,6932,7702,8492,9283,0083,0903,1743,2633,354

3.8%

-0.6%

6.5%4.4%

21,01520,88320,95521,06921,17418,60918,06318,45619,16419,84820,32720,80621,27221,73622,22522,75923,34123,86824,38724,92325,46426,03226,59227,14327,70328,26828,861

-1.3%-2.9%

2.6%2.1%

222222222222222222222222222

0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

333295283274248225220233235235233232231231232233235237238240244248252256261265269

-4.2%-2.3%

0.6%0.8%

335297285276250227222235237237235234233233234235237239240242246250254258263267271

-4.2%-2.2%

0.6%0.8%

21,35021,18021,24121,34421,42418,83618,28618,69119,40120,08620,56221,04021,50421,96922,45822,99423,57824,10724,62725,16625,70926,28226,84627,40127,96528,53529,132

-1.4%-2.9%

2.6%2.1%

* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1 Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

92

TABLE 23

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

FISCALYEAR

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

DOMESTIC

(Seats/Mile)

INT’L.

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC

(Miles)

INT’L.

(Miles)

SYSTEM

(Miles)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

2009$

(Cents)

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

38.448.649.349.952.855.056.256.857.357.858.258.658.959.359.760.360.861.361.862.362.763.163.664.064.564.965.4

41.852.452.254.053.452.853.153.453.754.054.354.654.955.255.555.856.156.456.757.057.357.657.958.258.558.859.1

38.548.749.450.052.955.056.256.757.257.758.158.558.959.259.760.260.761.261.762.262.663.063.563.964.464.865.3

286.5434.7450.4451.5460.8456.5453.8455.2462.9471.3479.5487.9495.2502.7510.2517.8525.6532.2538.8545.6552.4559.3564.9570.5576.2582.0587.8

260.0434.2467.2518.1532.7511.3516.3521.3526.3531.3536.3541.3546.3551.3556.3561.3566.3571.3576.3581.3586.3591.3596.3601.3606.3611.3616.3

285.5434.7450.7452.9462.3457.4454.8456.3463.9472.2480.4488.8496.0503.4510.9518.5526.3532.8539.4546.1552.9559.8565.4571.0576.7582.5588.3

30.2819.6719.8820.1821.4419.0420.2320.7620.9020.9721.0521.1421.2521.3621.4621.5521.6221.6921.7821.8621.9622.0722.2722.4822.6922.9223.16

-5.0%

6.3%0.7%0.9%

37.9221.7321.1821.0121.3819.0419.9520.0919.7919.5019.2018.9218.6518.3818.1217.8617.6117.3717.1416.9116.6816.4616.3016.1415.9915.8315.68

-7.4%

4.8%

-1.2%-0.9%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers. 
93

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

FISCALYEAR

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

79.7

146.4152.2156.2159.1153.8160.8166.2172.0177.7182.9188.0193.0198.1203.7209.7216.3222.5228.7235.1241.6248.6255.6262.6269.7276.9284.6

7.6%4.6%3.0%3.0%

3.13.33.53.43.52.62.72.82.92.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.94.04.14.24.44.54.64.7

-2.2%

4.6%3.0%3.0%

82.8

149.7155.7159.6162.6156.3163.4168.9174.8180.6186.0191.1196.2201.4207.0213.1219.9226.2232.5239.0245.6252.7259.9266.9274.2281.5289.3

7.3%4.6%3.0%3.0%

22,82563,65468,53270,52873,30570,18872,95375,64179,59683,73287,72591,71795,57799,578

103,900108,574113,692118,417123,233128,266133,462139,025144,398149,803155,417161,163167,265

13.3%

3.9%4.5%4.2%

814

1,4171,6341,7721,8671,3041,3771,4371,5021,5661,6281,6881,7501,8121,8801,9532,0332,1092,1872,2682,3512,4392,5292,6202,7132,8092,910

5.4%5.6%4.0%3.9%

23,63965,07170,16672,30075,17271,49274,33077,07881,09885,29889,35393,40697,327

101,390105,780110,527115,725120,526125,420130,534135,812141,464146,928152,423158,130163,972170,175

13.1%

4.0%4.5%4.2%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

94

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

38,33290,02891,45893,45299,46994,42196,25898,734

103,810109,120114,242119,361124,307129,435134,979140,979147,553153,615159,793166,253172,920180,062186,957193,890201,093208,466216,296

10.5%

1.9%4.4%4.0%

22,82563,65468,53270,52873,30570,18872,95375,64179,59683,73287,72591,71795,57799,578

103,900108,574113,692118,417123,233128,266133,462139,025144,398149,803155,417161,163167,265

13.3%

3.9%4.5%4.2%

59.570.774.975.573.774.375.876.676.776.776.876.876.976.977.077.077.177.177.177.277.277.277.277.377.377.377.3

1,3382,2132,3872,5502,6321,8731,9642,0352,1112,1872,2572,3252,3922,4612,5362,6172,7052,7892,8732,9593,0483,1423,2483,3533,4623,5723,696

3.8%4.8%3.3%3.3%

814

1,4171,6341,7721,8671,3041,3771,4371,5021,5661,6281,6881,7501,8121,8801,9532,0332,1092,1872,2682,3512,4392,5292,6202,7132,8092,910

5.4%5.6%4.0%3.9%

60.864.068.569.570.969.670.170.671.171.672.172.673.173.674.174.675.175.676.176.677.177.677.978.178.478.678.7

39,67092,24093,84596,002

102,101

96,29498,222

100,769105,922111,306116,499121,686126,699131,896137,515143,596150,259156,404162,666169,212175,967183,204190,205197,243204,555212,038219,993

10.4%

2.0%4.3%4.0%

23,63965,07170,16672,30075,17271,49274,33077,07881,09885,29889,35393,40697,327

101,390105,780110,527115,725120,526125,420130,534135,812141,464146,928152,423158,130163,972170,175

13.1%

4.0%4.5%4.2%

59.670.574.875.373.674.275.776.576.676.676.776.876.876.976.977.077.077.177.177.177.277.277.277.377.377.377.4

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
95

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

AS OFJANUARY 1

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

LESS 

THAN

9 SEATS

10 TO 19

SEATS

20 TO 30

SEATS

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

470449453453451466454444393418405391376363347346346343341341338337334332331331330

-0.1%-2.6%-2.7%-1.6%

470449453453451466454444393418405391376363347346346343341341338337334332331331330

-0.1%-2.6%-2.7%-1.6%

262

9988796865656565656564646463636362626261616060595958

-14.3%

0.0%

-0.3%-0.5%

474253224228180153145138103121113104

958778777777777777777777777777

-11.8%

-5.2%-6.1%-3.2%

7498969843

6000000000000000000000

-24.4%

N/AN/A

-99.9%

548351320326223159145138103121113104

958778777777777777777777777777

-12.8%

-8.8%-6.1%-3.4%

155

8187

101121115129143156169183197209222235250265276292306320334345358373388403

-3.3%

12.2%

7.5%6.2%

496

1,6301,6321,6561,7301,7041,6031,6691,7051,7431,7481,7231,7041,7081,7061,7221,7661,7871,8521,9121,9762,0602,1252,2002,2802,3602,441

14.7%

-5.9%

1.0%1.7%

651

1,7111,7191,7571,8511,8191,7321,8121,8611,9121,9311,9201,9131,9301,9411,9722,0312,0632,1442,2182,2962,3942,4702,5582,6532,7482,844

12.1%

-4.8%

1.6%2.2%

1,7041,1021,0561,033

927902896893820875867857844835821834849855868882891903909919932947960

-6.8%-0.7%-0.5%

0.3%

570

1,7281,7281,7541,7731,7101,6031,6691,7051,7431,7481,7231,7041,7081,7061,7221,7661,7871,8521,9121,9762,0602,1252,2002,2802,3602,441

13.0%

-6.3%

1.0%1.7%

2,2742,8302,7842,7872,7002,6122,4992,5622,5252,6182,6152,5802,5482,5432,5272,5562,6152,6422,7202,7942,8672,9633,0343,119

3,2123,3073,401

1.6%

-4.3%

0.5%1.3%

*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

96

TABLE 27

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

AS OF

DEC. 31

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT

EXPERIMENTAL SPORT AIRCRAFT OTHER

TOTAL

GENERAL

AVIATION

FLEET

TOTAL 

PISTONS

TOTAL 

TURBINES

PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

149,422 148,102 145,033147,571145,497144,745144,104143,502142,996142,581142,240141,955141,748141,613141,594141,727142,052142,550143,084143,696144,438145,323146,143147,078148,139149,319150,646

-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%

0.2%

21,091 19,504 18,70819,33517,51917,35117,17717,04116,91616,79116,65616,52016,38416,24116,09815,95515,81515,68115,55215,42415,29915,17615,05914,94114,82714,71114,597

-2.1%-1.0%-0.8%-0.8%

170,513 167,606 163,741 166,906 163,016 162,096 161,281 160,543 159,912 159,372 158,896 158,475 158,132 157,854 157,692 157,682 157,867 158,231 158,636 159,120 159,737 160,499 161,202 162,019 162,966 164,030 165,243 

-0.6%-0.5%-0.2%

0.1%

5,762 7,942 8,0639,5148,9079,0109,1009,2149,3499,5009,6509,7999,943

10,08510,22710,37010,51610,66510,81210,95911,10811,25911,41111,56411,71711,87012,023

5.1%1.0%1.5%1.4%

7,0019,823 

10,37910,38511,04211,41811,77912,18412,65713,21713,82714,46615,12215,79816,48617,19117,92518,69119,48720,31521,17522,06922,99623,95724,95225,97927,035

5.6%3.2%4.3%4.2%

12,763 17,765 18,442 19,899 19,949 20,428 20,879 21,398 22,006 22,718 23,477 24,265 25,065 25,883 26,713 27,561 28,442 29,357 30,299 31,274 32,283 33,328 34,407 35,520 36,669 37,849 39,059 

5.4%2.2%3.1%3.1%

2,680 3,039 3,2642,7693,4983,6663,8304,0054,1804,3604,5504,7554,9455,1255,2905,4555,6255,7955,9706,1456,3206,4956,6706,8457,0207,1957,370

3.5%4.5%3.9%3.4%

4,470 5,689 5,8956,7986,3786,5406,7156,9207,1257,3357,5557,7958,0158,2258,4158,6058,8009,0009,2009,4009,6009,800

10,00510,21010,41510,62010,825

4.3%2.7%2.7%2.4%

7,150 8,728 9,159 9,567 9,876 

10,206 10,545 10,925 11,305 11,695 12,105 12,550 12,960 13,350 13,705 14,060 14,425 14,795 15,170 15,545 15,920 16,295 16,675 17,055 17,435 17,815 18,195 

4.0%3.3%3.2%2.8%

20,407 23,627 23,04723,22823,36423,43523,60524,32025,03025,68026,32526,96527,55028,12528,69529,26029,77030,27530,77531,27031,76032,24532,67533,10033,52033,93534,350

1.5%0.7%2.3%1.8%

NA

170 

1,273 6,066 6,811 7,311 7,711 8,711 9,711

10,61111,11111,61112,01112,41112,71113,01113,31113,61113,91114,21114,51114,81115,11115,41115,71116,01116,311

N/A

5.5%5.6%3.9%

6,700 6,4546,2775,9405,6525,6735,6795,6845,6775,6705,6635,6575,6505,6445,6375,6315,6255,6185,6125,6065,6005,5945,5885,582

5,5765,5715,565

-1.8%

0.1%

-0.1%-0.1%

217,533 224,350 221,939 231,606 228,668 229,149 229,699 231,581 233,642 235,746 237,577 239,522 241,369 243,267 245,153 247,206 249,440 251,888 254,404 257,026 259,812 262,772 265,658 268,688 271,877 275,210 278,723 

0.6%0.2%0.8%0.9%

173,193 170,645 167,005 169,675 166,514 165,762 165,111 164,548 164,092 163,732 163,446 163,230 163,077 162,979 162,982 163,137 163,492 164,026 164,606 165,265 166,057 166,994 167,872 168,864 169,986 171,225 172,613 

-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%

0.2%

17,233 23,454 24,337 26,697 26,327 26,968 27,594 28,318 29,131 30,053 31,032 32,060 33,080 34,108 35,128 36,166 37,242 38,357 39,499 40,674 41,883 43,128 44,412 45,730 47,084 48,469 49,884 

5.1%2.3%3.0%3.0%

* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
97

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

CALENDARYEAR

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT

EXPERIMENTAL SPORT AIRCRAFT OTHER

TOTAL

GENERAL

AVIATION 

HOURS

TOTAL 

PISTONS

TOTAL 

TURBINES

PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

18,089 13,73913,97613,57112,74611,43611,00411,70511,85611,96511,85511,83911,74711,78811,86811,99412,12712,35012,45912,61312,84213,13413,42613,73914,04614,32014,613

-5.0%-3.8%

1.0%1.2%

3,400 2,6772,5502,6862,3282,1322,1052,1372,1222,0712,0191,9851,9461,9241,9111,9001,8871,8671,8621,8711,8831,9001,9281,9531,9882,0272,051

-5.1%-1.3%-1.1%-0.2%

21,489 16,416 16,525 16,257 15,074 13,568 13,109 13,842 13,978 14,036 13,875 13,823 13,692 13,713 13,779 13,894 14,014 14,217 14,321 14,484 14,725 15,034 15,354 15,693 16,034 16,347 16,663 

-5.0%-3.4%

0.7%1.0%

1,986 2,1602,1622,6612,4572,2412,2722,4582,5372,6092,6502,6882,7142,7402,7762,8122,8422,8632,8982,9352,9632,9863,0153,0543,0973,1383,180

1.4%1.4%2.3%1.7%

2,7553,7674,0773,9383,6002,9022,9043,4874,1964,9245,1705,4255,6975,9576,1976,4636,7397,0217,3117,6167,9338,2578,5888,9309,2839,662

10,051

0.6%0.1%8.8%6.1%

4,741 5,927 6,240 6,600 6,057 5,143 5,176 5,945 6,733 7,533 7,821 8,113 8,411 8,697 8,973 9,275 9,581 9,884 

10,209 10,551 10,896 11,243 11,603 11,984 12,380 12,800 13,232 

0.9%0.7%6.4%4.6%

530 678918704751709726761796832871912951988

1,0221,0571,0931,1281,1651,2031,2401,2771,3151,3531,3911,4291,468

3.3%2.4%4.2%3.5%

1,661 2,4382,5282,5412,4702,3562,3712,4552,5412,6282,7212,8212,9153,0073,0923,1773,2653,3563,4483,5413,6343,7283,8253,9234,0224,1224,222

4.0%0.6%3.3%2.8%

2,191 3,116 3,446 3,245 3,222 3,065 3,096 3,216 3,336 3,461 3,591 3,733 3,866 3,995 4,114 4,234 4,358 4,485 4,614 4,743 4,874 5,006 5,140 5,276 5,413 5,551 5,690 

3.8%1.0%3.5%3.0%

1,307 1,3401,2181,2751,1551,0311,0001,0881,1981,3031,4031,4801,5201,5601,5991,6391,6761,7131,7501,7871,8241,8621,8961,9301,9651,9992,034

-2.6%-3.0%

5.3%3.3%

NA

9 

66 

260293314332382435484517551582613641669698728759791824857892928965

1,0031,043

N/A

5.5%7.7%5.9%

374 271 211 215 209 208 208 209 210 210 211 212 213 214 214 215 216 217 218 219 219 220 221 222 

223 224 225 

-6.3%-0.4%

0.4%0.4%

30,102 27,078 27,705 27,852 26,009 23,330 22,921 24,681 25,889 27,027 27,418 27,913 28,284 28,791 29,320 29,926 30,543 31,244 31,870 32,575 33,362 34,222 35,107 36,034 36,980 37,925 38,886 

-2.8%-1.8%

2.9%2.5%

22,019 17,094 17,443 16,962 15,825 14,277 13,835 14,602 14,774 14,868 14,745 14,735 14,643 14,701 14,802 14,951 15,107 15,345 15,486 15,687 15,965 16,312 16,669 17,046 17,425 17,776 18,131 

-4.7%-3.1%

0.9%1.1%

6,402 8,365 8,767 9,141 8,527 7,499 7,547 8,400 9,273 

10,162 10,541 10,934 11,326 11,704 12,064 12,452 12,846 13,240 13,657 14,092 14,530 14,971 15,428 15,907 16,402 16,922 17,454 

1.8%0.6%5.5%4.1%

* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

98

TABLE 29

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

AS OFDEC. 31 STUDENTS RECREA- TIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT ROTOR- CRAFT ONLY GLIDER ONLY TOTAL PILOTS TOTAL LESS AT PILOTS INSTRUMENT RATED PILOTS1

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

93,06487,21384,86684,33980,98972,28070,70069,05071,40073,15073,85074,30074,70074,95075,35075,50075,80076,20076,80077,40078,10079,00080,10081,40082,85084,45086,050

-2.8%-2.2%

0.7%0.8%

340 278 239239252234235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235235

-4.1%

0.4%0.0%0.0%

NA

134 939

2,0312,6233,2484,0604,8725,8466,1506,5006,8507,2007,6008,0008,4008,8509,2509,700

10,15010,65011,15011,70012,25012,85013,45014,100

N/A

25.0%

8.1%7.2%

251,561228,619 219,233211,096222,596211,619206,400202,000200,500200,550201,000201,600202,250202,850203,500204,050204,600205,200205,950206,800207,800209,000210,450212,200214,250216,550219,050

-1.9%-2.5%-0.1%

0.2%

121,858 120,614 117,610115,127124,746125,738124,950125,150123,900119,850119,750119,650121,250122,650123,650124,550125,450126,300127,300128,400129,600130,900132,350133,850135,450137,200139,100

0.3%

-0.6%

0.0%0.5%

141,596 141,992 141,935143,953146,838144,600142,650142,750142,800143,750145,100145,750146,700147,300148,200149,100150,300151,250151,900153,450154,550156,050157,350158,550160,000161,400162,900

0.2%

-1.3%

0.5%0.6%

7,775 9,518 

10,69012,29014,64715,29815,38015,54016,25017,01017,70018,30018,86019,42019,88020,24020,40020,39020,27020,14020,01020,06020,21020,42020,67021,00021,380

7.8%0.5%2.9%1.6%

9,387 

21,369 21,59721,274 21,055 21,268 21,270 21,350 21,380 21,410 21,440 21,470 21,510 21,540 21,570 21,600 21,630 21,670 21,700 21,730 21,760 21,800 21,830 21,860 21,890 21,930 21,960 

9.5%0.0%0.2%0.2%

625,581 609,737 597,109 590,349 613,746 594,285 585,645 580,947 582,311 582,105 585,575 588,155 592,705 596,545 600,385 603,675 607,265 610,495 613,855 618,305 622,705 628,195 634,225 640,765 648,195 656,215 664,775 

-0.6%-1.5%

0.4%0.5%

483,985 467,745 455,174 446,396 466,908 449,685 442,995 438,197 439,511 438,355 440,475 442,405 446,005 449,245 452,185 454,575 456,965 459,245 461,955 464,855 468,155 472,145 476,875 482,215 488,195 494,815 501,875 

-0.8%-1.5%

0.3%0.5%

311,944 311,500 309,333309,865325,247323,495322,300321,100322,800324,500326,200327,900329,600332,100334,600337,200339,800343,200346,700350,200353,800357,400361,000364,700368,400372,100375,900

0.4%

-0.4%

0.5%0.7%

* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
99

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE 30

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

CALENDARYEAR

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT EXPERIMENTAL/

OTHER

SPORT

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO- PROP TURBO- JET AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL PISTON TURBINE

Historical200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

200.8173.1164.9157.6143.0129.0124.7133.3133.7133.6131.0129.5127.9127.7127.9128.6129.4131.1131.6132.6134.3136.7139.0141.5144.0146.1148.3

-4.8%-3.3%

0.4%0.7%

108.4

89.779.983.069.564.063.564.863.761.559.457.856.355.554.854.253.652.752.352.352.452.653.153.554.255.055.4

-5.7%-0.8%-1.7%-0.7%

176.3196.1190.1205.2230.4210.2211.0228.2235.6239.8243.6247.2247.0249.4252.6253.3256.1258.0258.5261.8264.3266.4268.9272.4276.3279.9283.7

2.0%0.4%2.0%1.4%

736.7

1,181.31,303.91,148.01,313.21,014.11,004.61,194.41,422.81,653.21,718.41,784.91,855.81,920.91,978.32,042.82,108.72,174.92,242.02,312.22,384.42,456.92,530.02,604.52,680.12,761.92,844.3

3.6%

-0.9%

7.7%5.0%

8.4

14.616.7

9.3

10.710.110.310.811.311.812.312.813.413.914.314.815.315.816.316.817.317.818.318.919.419.920.5

2.1%2.4%4.0%3.4%

59.0

149.2148.6132.4162.1140.0140.2144.4148.7153.1157.7162.7167.3171.7175.6179.6183.6187.8192.0196.1200.3204.5208.8213.0217.3221.6225.8

10.1%

0.1%2.7%2.3%

15.217.721.622.623.320.720.121.924.026.128.129.430.231.031.732.533.233.934.535.235.936.737.438.038.739.440.1

3.5%

-3.0%

5.1%3.2%

NA

0.00.31.21.51.61.61.92.12.32.52.62.82.93.13.13.33.43.53.63.83.94.14.34.44.64.8

N/A

3.4%7.3%5.5%

332.8295.0283.4273.6248.1225.3220.2232.6234.7235.2233.2232.2230.6231.0231.8233.2234.7237.0238.1240.5243.7247.7251.9256.2260.7265.0269.0

-4.2%-2.3%

0.6%0.8%

972.0

1,526.71,642.61,485.61,705.71,364.31,355.81,567.11,807.12,046.12,119.72,194.82,270.12,342.02,406.62,475.72,548.42,620.62,692.52,770.22,849.02,927.83,007.73,089.93,173.73,263.43,353.8

3.8%

-0.6%

6.5%4.4%

1,304.81,821.71,926.01,759.21,953.81,589.61,576.01,799.72,041.82,281.32,352.92,427.02,500.72,573.02,638.32,708.92,783.12,857.62,930.73,010.73,092.83,175.53,259.63,346.13,434.43,528.43,622.8

2.2%

-0.9%

5.9%4.0%

Source: FAA APO Estimates.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

100

TABLE 31

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY

TOTAL

NUMBER OF TOWERS

ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

15,158.713,533.613,256.313,611.213,779.112,831.312,519.512,611.512,915.913,246.613,552.913,858.714,162.614,470.814,803.615,167.515,562.915,932.716,303.516,681.617,058.817,457.817,861.918,252.718,658.919,063.319,481.9

-1.8%-2.4%

2.2%2.0%

10,760.512,550.511,967.611,667.311,028.9

9,510.49,326.09,329.49,441.29,546.69,643.09,727.09,831.99,942.4

10,059.410,183.010,327.810,478.410,638.910,810.610,993.911,202.211,427.811,670.411,931.412,212.312,514.7

-1.4%-1.9%

1.0%1.3%

22,844.119,303.218,707.118,575.217,521.315,554.514,982.315,167.415,356.115,547.715,741.715,947.516,155.616,366.916,581.916,799.717,020.917,245.217,473.117,704.517,939.418,177.918,420.118,666.118,915.819,169.519,427.1

-4.2%-3.7%

1.3%1.1%

17,034.414,843.614,365.414,556.814,146.712,419.912,114.912,265.412,418.312,572.512,727.312,885.913,046.713,208.613,372.513,538.913,708.013,879.214,052.614,241.014,432.414,627.114,823.415,023.115,224.515,429.315,637.5

-3.4%-2.5%

1.2%1.1%

39,878.534,146.833,072.533,132.031,668.027,974.427,097.227,432.727,774.528,120.228,469.128,833.429,202.329,575.529,954.430,338.630,728.931,124.431,525.731,945.432,371.832,805.033,243.533,689.134,140.334,598.835,064.5

-3.9%-3.1%

1.3%1.1%

1,439.81,414.51,358.41,313.91,283.71,294.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.0

-1.2%-1.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

1,448.21,449.11,417.41,405.71,217.71,262.51,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.6

-1.5%-1.9%

0.0%

-0.1%

2,888.02,863.62,775.82,719.62,501.42,556.52,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.6

-1.3%-1.6%

0.0%

-0.1%

68,685.763,094.561,072.261,130.058,977.452,872.651,459.351,890.352,648.253,430.154,181.654,935.755,713.456,505.457,334.058,205.759,136.260,052.160,984.761,954.262,941.163,981.665,049.866,128.867,247.268,390.969,577.7

-2.9%-2.7%

1.4%1.3%

266264263264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264

192229231235239244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244244

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
101

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TA

BLE 32

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIO

N

S

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/

COMMUTER

GENERAL

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

16,395.014,123.413,963.314,366.014,438.813,295.713,131.213,366.013,767.314,160.414,515.814,876.915,237.715,605.816,006.516,447.216,924.017,361.217,807.618,263.318,718.519,207.819,699.620,175.820,676.321,173.721,692.7

-2.3%-1.2%

2.6%2.4%

11,197.712,751.112,035.711,675.811,043.1

9,604.89,372.39,375.79,484.09,586.19,679.49,760.89,862.39,969.2

10,082.310,201.910,341.810,487.210,642.110,807.710,984.511,185.211,402.411,635.811,886.712,156.612,446.8

-1.7%-2.4%

1.0%1.2%

20,799.217,388.917,005.316,747.415,756.514,116.314,074.914,230.314,393.514,559.014,726.614,901.715,078.715,258.315,441.015,626.115,813.916,004.316,197.716,393.916,579.516,795.217,000.317,208.617,420.017,634.517,852.3

-4.2%-0.3%

1.2%1.1%

3,466.92,798.72,669.92,498.72,398.82,385.82,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.4

-4.1%-0.1%

0.0%0.0%

51,858.847,062.145,674.245,288.043,637.239,402.638,961.839,355.440,028.240,688.941,305.241,922.842,562.143,216.743,913.344,658.545,463.146,236.047,030.847,848.348,665.949,571.650,485.751,403.552,366.453,348.154,375.3

-3.0%-1.1%

1.6%1.5%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

102

TA

BLE 33

IF

R AIRCRA

F

T H

A

NDLED

AT FAA AIR RO

UTE TRAFFIC CO

NTROL CE

NTERS

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/

COMMUTER

GENERAL

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*200020052006200720082009EForecast201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30

24,987.025,004.624,394.525,006.223,847.322,216.722,051.322,542.523,400.424,288.025,135.625,999.926,867.227,757.128,721.529,757.430,855.731,927.433,014.834,130.235,264.136,482.237,700.438,918.540,185.941,476.342,819.8

-1.3%-0.7%

3.4%3.2%

8,100.9

10,053.9

9,436.79,652.9

10,174.1

8,543.98,222.78,245.58,360.08,482.68,601.38,694.48,802.18,921.39,038.29,151.69,270.49,402.39,543.89,689.79,843.4

10,009.210,184.510,370.310,563.010,767.310,982.6

0.6%

-3.8%

1.2%1.2%

8,744.38,367.78,197.08,294.37,664.76,305.86,138.26,194.06,251.26,308.36,365.16,423.66,481.96,540.56,599.56,658.76,718.36,778.36,838.86,899.86,957.27,023.47,086.17,149.47,213.47,278.07,343.2

-3.6%-2.7%

0.9%0.7%

4,192.54,052.04,149.73,803.33,648.82,991.72,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.12,991.1

-3.7%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

46,024.847,478.146,177.846,756.745,334.940,058.139,403.239,973.141,002.642,069.943,093.144,108.945,142.346,209.947,350.248,558.849,835.451,099.052,388.453,710.855,055.856,505.857,962.159,429.260,953.362,512.664,136.7

-1.5%-1.6%

2.4%2.3%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

HQ-101076