FAA Aerospace

Forecast

Fiscal Years 2021-2041
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2021–2041) ................................................................................................1

Review of 2020 ...........................................................................................................................4

Glossary of Acronyms.................................................................................................................6

Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................8

FAA Aerospace Forecasts ..........................................................................................................9

Economic Environment..........................................................................................................10

U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................12

Domestic Market................................................................................................................12

International Market ...........................................................................................................18

Cargo.................................................................................................................................24

General Aviation....................................................................................................................26

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................32

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................35

Commercial Space ................................................................................................................37

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA....................................................................38

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast ...............................................................40

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy .................................................................42

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................44

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft and Forecast...........................................................44

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast....................................................48

Status of Survey ................................................................................................................55

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................56

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS....................................................................................59

Effective/Active Fleet via Renewal .....................................................................................60

Large UAS.........................................................................................................................65

Advanced Air Mobility ........................................................................................................68

Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................72

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................76

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................76

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................80

Enplanements....................................................................................................................80

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................81

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................81

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................82

Yield ..................................................................................................................................83

Appendix B: Forecast Tables ...................................................................................................88
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

1

Forecast Highlights (2021–2041)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility 

that was associated with these cycles was 

thought by many to be a structural feature of 

an industry that was capital intensive but 

cash poor. However, the great recession of 

2007-09 marked a fundamental change in 

the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. 

Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S. 

airlines revamped their business models to 

minimize losses by lowering operating costs, 

eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated 

new services that customers were willing to 

purchase and started charging separately for 

services that were historically bundled in the 

price of a ticket. The industry experienced 

an unprecedented period of consolidation 

with three major mergers in five years. The

results of these efforts were impressive: 

2019 marked the eleventh consecutive year 

of profitability for the U.S. airline industry.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 

2020, however, brought a rapid and cataclysmic end to those boom years. Airline activity 

and profitability tumbled almost overnight 

and without the financial and competitive 

strength built up during the boom, airlines 

would have faced even greater challenges. 

As it was, they were able to slash capacity 

and costs, and then, relying on their balance 

sheets, credit ratings and value inherent in 

their brands, to raise capital through borrowing and restructuring fleets allowing them to 

withstand the period of losses into 2021. Although several small regional carriers ceased 

operations in 2020, no mainline carriers did.

The business modifications necessitated by 

the downturn will shape the industry for years 

to come. Primarily, airlines will be smaller 

having retired aircraft and encouraged voluntary employee separations. Fleets, however, 

become younger and more fuel-efficient as 

retirements targeted the oldest and the least 

efficient aircraft. As airlines carry high levels 

of debt, capital spending and investment will 

be restrained which in turn holds back future 

growth. And even the unbundling of services 

took a small step backwards as carriers eliminated change fees for all but Basic Economy 

tickets.

In the medium-term, airlines will be focused 

on trying to foretell the recovery in demand 

and position themselves to meet it. To date, 

that demand recovery has been extremely 

uneven, driven by COVID-19 case counts, 

vaccinations, governmental restrictions and 

the degree of pent-up demand experienced 

by consumers. As expected, domestic leisure traffic has led the recovery and domestic business travel should begin to pick-up 

later in 2021. International activity will lag 

somewhat as individual country experience 

with the pandemic is varying so widely. As a 

result, airlines have initially shifted flights and 

routes to outdoor recreation areas but as the 

recovery progresses, their focus will gradually return to traditional markets and segments.

Long-term, the strengths and capabilities developed over the past decade will become 

evident again. There is confidence that U.S. 

airlines have finally transformed from a capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to an industry that can generate solid returns on capital and sustained profits.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

2

Fundamentally, over the long-term, aviation 

demand is driven by economic activity, and a 

growing U.S. and world economy provides 

the basis for aviation to grow. The 2021 FAA 

forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 4.9 percent per year. This average, 

however, includes three double-digit growth 

years during the recovery from a very low 

base in 2021. Following the recovery period, 

trend rates resume with average growth

through the end of the forecast of 2.3 percent. Domestic passengers are forecast to 

return, on an annual basis, to 2019 levels in 

early 2024. Oil prices averaged $43 per barrel in 2020 and are forecast to fall to $36 per 

barrel in 2021 before rising steadily to $94 by 

the end of the forecast period.

Just as U.S. economic activity drives domestic demand for air transport, foreign economic activity affects international travel demand. And as virtually all countries have 

taken actions to contain COVID-19, those 

same actions have resulted in economic patterns that are similar to those in the U.S. with 

sharp declines in 2020 followed by strong rebounds forecast as the recovery begins in

2021. The variation of economic performance across countries depends on their relative strength at the beginning of 2020 but is 

also dependent on the severity of their experience with COVID-19 as well as the stringency of their responses. Europe saw sharp 

economic declines in 2020, consistent with 

its relatively high level of infections and numerous lockdowns that overwhelmed a tepid 

level of baseline economic growth. Many 

Asian countries, on the other hand, saw only 

mild downturns as they took swift and strong 

actions to control the virus early in the pandemic but also began the year with relatively 

strong economic growth. Most countries are 

expected to vaccinate their populations and 

bring the virus under control by 2022 and 

economic growth rates settle back to their 

long-run trends in about 2023.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 5.5 percent a year between 2021 and 2041. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 5.1 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 6.6

percent a year. These figures are, of course, 

boosted by several years of high growth 

rates during the recovery after which the annual rates return to more moderate long-term 

trends. The strong growth rates return system RPM, on an annual basis, to 2019 levels 

in 2024, with domestic RPM returning early 

that year but international RPM recovering a 

year later in 2025. System capacity as 

measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is 

forecast to grow somewhat slower than RPM 

during the recovery period as airlines seek to 

restore load factors but, subsequently, ASM 

grow in line with the increases in demand.

The FAA expects U.S. carrier profitability to 

remain under pressure for several years due 

to depressed demand and competitive fare 

pressures. As carriers return to levels of capacity consistent with their fixed costs, shed 

excess debt, and see rising yields, profitability should gradually return. Over the long 

term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing 

demand for air travel and airfares growing 

more slowly than overall inflation, reflecting 

growing U.S. and global economies.

The general aviation (GA) sector was less affected by the COVID-19 crisis than the airlines. There are new comers in the high-end 

business jet segment as a result of flying privately due to concerns of the virus. At the 

lower end new comers included student, pri-
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

3

vate and commercial pilots, joining the existing GA pilot population. They are flying piston aircraft in and out of small airports as well 

as larger airports that do not have as many 

commercial flights due to the pandemic. The

long-term outlook for general aviation thus is 

more promising than before, as growth at the 

high-end offsets continuing retirements at 

the traditional low end of the sector. The active GA fleet is forecast to increase slightly by 

0.1 percent between 2021 and 2041, after recording a decline of 2.8 percent in 2020 from 

the year before (active fleet shrinks 1 percent 

by 2041 from its 2019 level). Turbine aircraft, 

including rotorcraft is estimated to not experience a decline between 2019 and 2020, 

while the total of piston fleet is estimated to 

have decreased by 1.1 percent in 2020 from 

the previous year. While steady growth in 

both GDP and corporate profits results in 

continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft 

fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed 

wing piston aircraft will continue to shrink 

over the forecast period. Against the marginally declining active GA fleet between 2019 

and 2041, the number of GA hours flown is 

projected to increase by a total of 14.8 percent from 2019 to 2041 (an average of 0.6

percent per year), as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than 

offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

When the period of 2021 to 2041 is compared, the total hours flown by the GA aircraft 

is forecast to increase by an average of 1.0 

percent per year, after declining by 9.7 percent between 2019 and 2020, and recovering partially, with a growth of 4.9 percent in 

2021 from the previous year. 

With the expected robust air travel demand 

growth between 2022 and 2026 due to the 

U.S. economy recovering from the impact of 

COVID, we expect increased activity growth 

that has the potential to increase controller 

workload. Operations at FAA and contract 

towers are forecast to grow 1.9 percent a 

year over the forecast period (FY2021-41)

with commercial activity growing at approximately five times the rate of non-commercial

(general aviation and military) activity. The 

COVID recovery growth in U.S. airline activity is the primary driver. The U.S. commercial 

aviation sector has been hit by the pandemic 

much harder than the non-commercial sector. The pent-up demand is expected to drive 

the commercial operations back to the preCOVID level, hence leading to the stronger 

growth in the commercial sector. In particular, large and medium hubs will see much 

faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature 

of their operations.

The estimates for U.S. airline traffic contained in the FY 2021 Aerospace Forecast 

document were developed between October 

2020 and January 2021 and factored in the 

latest traffic data, economic forecasts, the 

status of COVID-19 infections and availability of COVID-19 vaccinations at that time. 

Since the completion of the analysis, subsequent data on the outlook for economic 

growth—which includes the effects of President Biden’s American Rescue Plan and the 

two prior COVID-19 relief bills, as well as current indicators of U.S. airline traffic and the 

rapid rate of vaccinations across the country 

due to the Biden-Harris Administration’s efforts—suggest a potential pace of aviation 

travel recovery that is faster than is depicted 

in the FY 2021 Aerospace Forecast. April 

2021 data shows this report is likely conservative in its estimates for 2021: Flights operated in April 2021 (471,375) were more 

than double the flights operated in April 2020 

(194,390) and 72% of the flights operated in 

April 2019 (652,533).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

4

Review of 2020

All sectors of the aerospace industry suffered 

from the devastating impacts of COVID-19

and while every sector bore those costs, the 

operational and financial consequences 

were felt most by U.S. commercial aviation. 

As an exception, UAS activity and Commercial Space launches increased during the 

year.

U.S. commercial aviation started the year on 

very strong footing, but in March the virus 

had crossed the Atlantic and efforts to contain it brought a sharp decline to aviation. 

TSA checkpoint throughput plummeted from 

105 percent of year ago levels in February to 

45 percent in March and then just 5 percent 

in April. Lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, 

testing and quarantine requirements, border 

closures and, of course, people's own concerns about being in close proximity to dozens of strangers while travelling, all led to the 

drop-off in traffic. While leisure traffic 

showed some signs of life around holidays, 

business and international traffic was moribund. As revenue collapsed, airlines worked

to aggressively cut expenditures but were 

constrained by competitive factors including 

a desire to not just survive until the eventual 

recovery but to have the capacity at that point 

to meet demand and then return to previous 

levels of operation. Airlines slashed flights 

and routes, parked and retired aircraft, entered into sale-leaseback agreements, 

halted investment spending, sought labor 

concessions, reduced management compensation and offered voluntary leave and 

early retirement programs. While the Payroll 

Support Program (PSP) portion of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security 

(CARES) Act forestalled furloughs through 

September, its expiration led to 37,000

layoffs the following month. According to the 

Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), 

airline employment was 86,000 jobs lower 

than a year earlier, and marked the lowest 

level of employment dating back to the beginning of BTS records in 1990. Even with 

the aggressive cost cutting, expenses exceeded revenues during the year, and airlines were forced to incur debt to cover the 

cash outflow. By September, long-term debt 

had reached $107 billion, or more than twice 

its level at the same point in 2019.

As difficult as the year was, there were a few 

tailwinds. The PSP and two extensions that 

keep it active through September 2021 are 

enabling airlines to maintain staffing levels in 

anticipation of the recovery and direct cash 

to other expenses. Fuel prices dropped in 

2020 to levels well below those of the past 15 

years. And the very large U.S. domestic 

market meant that the leisure segment could 

travel without fear of shifting foreign entry or 

quarantine requirements – factors that, combined with outright border closures, depressed most international demand.

As reflected by the TSA throughput figures, 

demand for air travel in 2020 contracted 

sharply. In 2020, system traffic as measured 

by revenue passenger miles (RPMs) contracted 47.3 percent while system enplanements fell 44.2 percent. Domestic RPMs 

were 43.9 percent lower while enplanements 

were down 43.1 percent. International RPMs 

fell 56.0 percent and enplanements by 53.2 

percent. The system-wide load factor was

69.5 percent, down 15 percentage points

from the 2019 level. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

5

System nominal yields fell in 2020. In domestic markets, all carriers, whether they 

normally targeted the leisure segment or not, 

focused on that price-sensitive segment, 

adding capacity and lowering fares to attract 

revenue. The result was a 20.7 percent drop 

in nominal yields. International yield, however, declined just 0.6 percent as demand 

was generally less price-sensitive.

Not surprisingly, the sharp, unanticipated fall 

off in demand pushed U.S. airlines into the 

red. Data for FY 2020 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating loss of $32.1 billion compared to an average profit over the previous five years of 

$22.1 billion. The network carriers1 reported 

combined operating losses of $24.0 billion 

while the low-cost carriers2 reported combined operating losses of $6.6 billion as all

carriers posted losses.

The general aviation industry experienced a

decline of 12.4 percent in deliveries of U.S. 

manufactured aircraft in 2020, with pistons 

slightly down by 0.1 percent (in fact, fixedwing single engine piston aircraft deliveries 

were up by 3.2 percent) and turbines down

by 24.5 percent. With the effect of the pandemic in new deliveries, global billings decreased by 14.8 percent to $20 billion, nearly 

the same level as they were in 2018 (Statistics for the U.S. billings were not available as 

of the publication date of this report). 

Total operations in 2020 at FAA and contract 

towers fell by 16.7 percent compared to 

2019. This was the first annual decline in activity since 2015. Air carrier activity decreased by 27.5 percent, while air taxi operations decreased by 24.4 percent. General 

aviation activity fell 8.9 percent and military 

activity decreased 10.9 percent. Activity at 

large and medium hubs fell by 29.9 percent

and 22.9 percent, respectively, while small

and non-hub airport activity declined by 10.9

percent in 2020 compared to the prior year.

 1 Network carriers are: Alaska Airlines, American 

Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Air Lines.

2 Low cost carriers are: Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit 

Air Lines, and Sun Country Airlines.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

6

Glossary of Acronyms

Acronym Term .

ANG FAA Office of NextGen

ARP FAA Office of Airports

ASMs Available Seat Miles

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CAPS COA Application Processing System

CBP Customs and Border Patrol

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

COAs Certification of Authorizations

CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CY Calendar Year

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD Department of Defense

DoE Department of Energy

DoI Department of Interior

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GC Grand Challenge

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

ISS International Space Station

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability

LCC Low Cost Carriers

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

lUAS Large Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act

NOTAM Notices to Airmen

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

PDARS Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

7

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

TSA Transportation Security Administration

UAM Urban Air Mobility

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

UASFM UAS facility maps

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

8

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Commercial Air Carriers Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

General Aviation H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

Commercial Fleet Akira Kondo (202) 267-3336

Commercial Space Thomas Marotta (202) 267-0427

LaVada Strickland (202) 267-3855

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

Gavin Ekins (202) 267-4735

APO Websites

• Forecasts and 

Statistical publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

9

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2021-2041
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

10

Economic Environment

Economies around the world were devastated by measures necessary to bring the 

COVID-19 virus under control such as stayat-home orders, limits on gathering sizes for 

both public and private events, quarantine 

measures and even border closures. In 

2020, global real GDP contracted by 3.6 percent, a rate considerably better than that predicted during the early months of the pandemic but still the most severe decline since 

1946. Near-term forecasts have also shifted 

significantly from one month to the next as

factors such as government support programs, COVID-19 case counts, and vaccine 

development and vaccination progress are 

all rapidly changing. In the most recent forecast, IHS Markit projects that world economic 

growth will rise to 5.1 percent in 2021, up

from the 4.5 percent used in the preparation 

of this Aerospace Forecast. By 2023, the recovery and payback from the downturn is 

complete and the forecast of world real GDP 

growth has returned approximately to the 

long-term trend rate of 2.8 percent – unchanged in recent months.

In the U.S., enhanced unemployment benefits, high personal savings rates, and a pickup in consumer spending on services all contribute to GDP strength in 2021 and 2022. 

Compared to the U.S., real GDP growth in 

Western Europe will be somewhat slower in 

the near- and medium-term. Relatively more 

strict COVID-19 containment efforts in some 

countries and slower vaccine rollouts contribute to slower economic growth. On the other 

hand, the manufacturing sector has provided 

economic support for several countries and 

U.S. fiscal stimulus will further boost exports 

from that sector. Similarly, Japan's economic rebound in the near-term is supported 

by export demand from the U.S. and Asia, 

but restrained by sluggish consumer spending and its longstanding demographic trends. 

In emerging markets, China’s growth rate 

slowed in 2020 but did not contract, underpinned by the government’s drastic but effective COVID-19 containment measures that 

allowed early restoration of normal economic 

activities. In other large emerging markets, 

Brazil provided large fiscal stimulus that 

moderated the downturn in 2020 but the 

combination of the considerable increase in 

public debt plus the withdrawal of that stimulus will dampen the rebound in the mediumterm. Russia, like many other countries, saw 

its contraction in 2020 driven by a sharp drop 

in consumer spending and those new spending patterns combined with low oil prices and 

slow vaccination progress will all dampen the 

recovery. While India's economic recovery 

may be restrained by a second wave of infections and a slow vaccine rollout, in the medium-term its growth will be supported by favorable demographics and a relatively low 

savings rate.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

11

IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow 

at 2.9 percent a year between 2021 and 

2041. Emerging markets, at 3.9 percent a 

year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Africa and Middle East, 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.8 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be 

very slow at 1.0 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population.

2.3

-3.1 -3.5

-4.4 -4.9

-6.7

-8.2

-3.6

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Annual Percent Change

World Economic Growth in 2020

China Russia U.S. Brazil Japan Eurozone India World

Source: IHS Markit

1.0

1.5

2.4

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.0

4.0

4.4

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

Latin America

World

M.E. & N. Africa

Asia ex. China & Japan

China

Asia and Middle East/N. Africa Lead Global Economic Growth

Source: IHS Markit, Dec 2020 World Forecast

(annual GDP percent growth 2021-2041)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

12

As global economic output declined in 2020, 

so did the demand for oil resulting in a sharp 

drop of almost 30 percent in prices. After 

holding at about $60 per barrel in both 2018 

and 2019, the price fell to $43 per barrel in 

2020 and is projected to continue down to 

$36 per barrel in 2021 based on increasing 

supply. Over the long-run, IHS Markit expects the price of oil to increase due to growing global demand and higher costs of extraction. IHS Markit forecasts U.S. refiner's 

acquisition cost of crude to remain below

$100 per barrel throughout the forecast horizon.

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers3 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

Over the coming years, the commercial air 

carrier industry will be focused on recovering 

from the devastating consequences of the 

COVID-19 pandemic. First, carriers will work 

 3 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

to identify and assess demand as it returns 

fitfully from the lows reached in 2020. Next, 

and as load factors rise, the focus will shift to 

adding capacity back into networks in a cautious and deliberate manner. With demand 

beginning to approach 2019 levels, balance 

sheets strengthen allowing carriers to adopt 

the more customary longer-term strategies.

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or fewer seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

13

The unpredictable demand environment carriers faced in the second half of 2020 is expected to extend throughout 2021. The first 

part of the year will likely see a continuation 

of weak activity punctuated by spikes around 

holidays. Travel will be almost entirely confined to leisure segments of the population 

and recreational geographic markets. As the 

year progresses, increasing vaccinations 

and greater control over infections will begin 

to support steadier growth in activity due to 

pent-up demand for leisure travel by the 

broader population and to a wider range of 

destinations. Activity remains low, however, 

and carriers seek to stimulate demand by 

holding fares down.

The growing and increasingly predictable activity will allow carriers to return capacity to 

typical markets, and reduce reliance on 

purely recreational destinations. Utilization 

rates will rise and carriers will bring parked 

and stored aircraft back online. Activity 

grows slowly, however, as it is restrained by 

the economy and labor markets that also 

heal slowly. Although leisure travelers continue to make up the majority of passengers, 

shoots of a business travel recovery begin to 

emerge. Employees slowly become more 

comfortable with travelling again and employers find ways to satisfy duty-of-care requirements. Along with strengthening demand will come rising fares.

In the third phase, activity begins to approach 2019 levels and industry conditions 

begin to normalize. Leisure travel has largely 

returned to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is steadily catching up. Carriers 

remain somewhat constrained by debt incurred to survive the crisis and forgo some 

capital investments in favor of strengthening 

their balance sheets.

Throughout the recovery from the pandemic, 

several trends emerged that subsequently 

will, to greater or lesser extent, be reversed. 

Low-cost carriers targeting leisure travelers 

benefitted from relative strength in this segment. The sharp curtailment of business 

travel, on the other hand, impacted legacy 

carriers and those serving key business markets. And all carriers received a boost from 

low fuel prices that were due in part to reduced energy demand worldwide.

Regional carriers suffered very similar consequences of COVID-19 as did the mainline 

group. In 2020, regionals provided 11.5 percent of domestic capacity, up just slightly 

from 11.1 percent in 2019. In terms of traffic, 

regionals saw marginally better performance 

than their mainline counterparts, claiming 

11.2 percent of RPM in 2020 compared to 

10.4 percent in 2019. The deviations in 2020 

are expected to be temporary as travel patterns and airline operations begin their recovery to more normal conditions.

The regional market continues to face pressure as the regionals compete for even fewer 

contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; this has meant paltry growth in enplanements and yields.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

14

654

369 353

710 774 852 937 1,012

159

94 86

173

189

208

228

247

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

 1,400

2019 2020E 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional

14.1

11.2

9.6

12.3

13.4

14.3

15.3

16.5

11.6

9.2

7.9

10.1

11.0

11.8

12.6

13.5

 -

 2.00

 4.00

 6.00

 8.00

 10.00

 12.00

 14.00

 16.00

 18.00

2019 2020E 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

15

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, as mainline carriers cut service to 

smaller cities during 2020, it was the regional 

partners that were most affected. While regional airlines had previously faced some pilot shortages, this problem evaporated with 

the onset of the pandemic and the resulting 

capacity cuts. As regional carriers recover 

and activity returns to 2019 levels, both of 

these concerns are expected to reverse: service to smaller cities will return and flight 

crews will again be in short supply.

A trend for regionals that was largely unaffected by the pandemic is the longstanding 

increase in the number of seats per aircraft. 

This measure rose by more than 55 percent 

over the decade from 1997 to 2007 and although it slowed more recently to an increase 

of 17 percent in the ten years ending in 2019, 

that same pace generally continued in 2020. 

A consequence of this drive to replace their 

50 seat regional jets with more fuel-efficient 

70 seat jets is that capital costs have increased. The move to the larger aircraft will 

prove beneficial in the future, however, since 

their unit costs are lower.

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although, unlike 

that for the regionals, the trend had been accelerating. From 1997-2007, mainline seats 

per aircraft expanded just one-half of one 

percent but from 2009-2019, the measure 

grew 10 percent. In 2020, mainline seats per 

aircraft continued to grow but at about half 

the previous pace as carriers parked or retired many of their largest aircraft.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as 

boarding priority and internet access. After

posting record net profits in 2015, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined subsequently

on rising fuel and labor costs, and flat yields, 

but were supported by ancillary revenues. 

Even in 2020 when profits turned to staggering losses, this remained a meaningful 

source of revenue for carriers.

On the other hand, revenue management 

systems that have grown increasingly sophisticated in recent years became almost 

worthless in 2020. These systems enable 

carriers to price fares optimally for each day 

and time of flight, and to minimize foregone 

revenue. But, because they rely on historical 

data to make price and schedule predictions, 

the unprecedented nature of the collapse in 

2020 meant they could provide little guidance and carriers were forced to assess market conditions without the benefit or precision 

of that quantitative analysis.

While revenue management systems will regain their important role once travel demand 

returns to more normal rhythms, one source 

of ancillary revenue, change fees, was 

broadly scrapped in 2020. As traveler plans 

were forced to change due to COVID-19-related restrictions, airlines began dropping 

fees for itinerary changes in many ticket classes. In the middle two quarters of 2020, 

change fee revenue fell by about 90 percent 

compared to 2019, while other miscellaneous fees contracted by less than 50 percent. 

Some airlines have stated that the elimination of change fees is a permanent move and 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

16

won't be reversed with the end of the pandemic.

Other methods of segmenting passengers 

into more discreet cost categories based on 

comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, 

and access to social media and power outlets were unaffected by the pandemic. In 

2015, Delta introduced “Basic Economy” 

fares that provided customers with a main 

cabin experience at lower cost in exchange 

for fewer options. In February 2017, American began offering its version, and United 

deployed its version of Basic Economy fares

across its domestic network in May 2017. 

The offering of Basic Economy fares has 

been part of an effort by network carriers to 

protect market share in response to the rapid 

growth low cost carriers (LCC) have 

achieved in recent years. In 2019, mainline 

enplanements had increased almost 23 percent since 2007, and regionals' had risen 2

percent, low cost carrier enplanements grew

by 39 percent. RPMs over the same period 

show a similar pattern with mainline RPMs 

up almost 27 percent, regional RPMs up 11 

 4 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

percent and LCC RPMs fully 48 percent 

higher. These longer term trends were interrupted in 2020 with both enplanements and 

RPM dropping across all categories by about 

40 percent from 2019. Nevertheless, the 

strength of LCCs is expected to continue in 

coming years.

2020 also saw other trends interrupted. U.S. 

commercial air carriers’ total number of domestic departures had risen for the second 

year in a row in 2019, and ASM had risen 

each of the previous nine years. But then in 

2020, departures and ASM declined sharply, 

falling almost 30 percent from the prior year. 

On the demand side, RPMs and enplanements, which had grown for nine consecutive

years, saw even steeper declines of 40 percent in 2020. The prior trends were a result 

of the expanding size of aircraft and higher 

load factors.4

 In 2019, the domestic load factor bumped up to 85.2 percent – a new historic high – but then tumbled to 68.7 percent 

in 2020 as passengers stopped flying to a 

greater extent than carriers could match. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

17

System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity contracted 35.9 percent to 

791 billion ASMs in 2020 while RPMs plummeted 47.3 percent to 550 billion. During the 

same period, system-wide enplanements fell 

44.2 percent to 511 million. In prior years, 

U.S. carriers had prioritized the domestic 

over the international market in terms of allocating capacity as the U.S. saw stronger economic growth than many regions around the 

world. And in 2020, travel restrictions associated with COVID-19 caused this split to 

continue as domestic capacity was curtailed 

less than international: -30.5 percent for domestic compared to -49.5 percent for international. However, as U.S. carriers shift their 

focus to recovery, international capacity 

growth will outpace domestic, mainly because the international reductions in 2020 

were much more severe. Subsequent years 

through 2041 see carriers continue to expand capacity in international markets faster 

than domestic as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was -44.9 percent in 2020 while regional carriers carried 41.3 percent fewer

passengers. 

In the domestic market in 2019, mainline enplanements marked their ninth consecutive 

year of increases, a trend that was abruptly 

halted in 2020 with a decline of 43.6 percent. 

Similarly, mainline passengers in international markets had posted a tenth consecutive year of growth in 2019 and that trend was 

broken in 2020 with a 53.4 percent decline. 

 60.0

 65.0

 70.0

 75.0

 80.0

 85.0

 90.0

-45.0

-30.0

-15.0

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor (right axis)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

18

Domestic mainline enplanement growth is

forecast to drop further in 2021, falling 4.2 

percent before beginning a recovery in 2022 

with a 43.3 percent increase. The two subsequent years, 2023 and 2024, also see 

strong rates of growth and domestic mainline 

enplanements return to 2019 levels in early

2024. With the recovery complete, domestic 

enplanements resume growth driven by economic fundamentals and average 2.3 percent over the remainder of the forecast. International mainline enplanements follow a 

similar path with strong growth early in the 

recovery that slows as enplanements return 

to 2019 levels in 2025. From then through 

the end of the forecast in 2041, international 

enplanements are expected to grow at an average of 3.3 percent.

Although carriers cut capacity, the drop in 

traffic was even greater and system load factor fell from 84.5 percent in 2019 to 69.5 in 

2020 – a drop that far exceeded those following both 9/11 and the Great Recession. Load 

factor gradually recovers, returning to its 

2019 level in 2025.

International Market

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets, 

only to be reversed again in 2018 and 2019.

That relative performance continued in 2020 

although rather than appearing as stronger 

domestic growth, it manifested as a less severe decline: domestic enplanements fell 43 

percent in 2020 compared to 53 percent for 

international. International travel was particularly impacted by border closings, quarantine requirements and other travel restrictions, as well as the uncertainty of when 

requirements might change. The fall off of 

business travel also contributed to the decline, even as leisure travel was supporting 

domestic markets. International travel is expected to continue to be constrained over the 

next two to three years by varying levels of 

COVID-19 infections and governmental responses across countries. Individuals will 

also be making personal assessments of the 

risks of travel and will likely be less comfortable travelling internationally than domestically. The early years of the recovery will 

see some strong growth rates as activity levels come off a low base but these will return 

to more typical rates once levels approach 

2019 values expected in early 2025. From 

FY 2021-2025, average annual growth rates 

for ASM and RPM are projected to be just 

over 16 percent while enplanements are 

forecast to grow at 19 percent. From FY 

2025-2041, annual growth for ASM and RPM 

is forecast at 3.0 percent while enplanements will grow at a rate of 3.1 percent. Taking these two periods as a whole gives annual growth rates from FY 2021-2041 for 

ASM, RPM and enplanements of 6.0, 6.6, 

and 6.1 percent, respectively.

In the long-run, growth of major global economies will slow from the above-trend rates of 

recent, pre-pandemic years. Several moderating factors are at work, including dampened credit growth, reduced global trade, 

and political stresses. The European and 

Japanese economies are generally seeing 

slow but positive growth, in part due to weak 

trade with Asia. In turn, this has been driven 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

19

by trade disputes as well as China's continuing gradual slowdown which has been managed by the government and is unlikely to decline sharply. Overall, global conditions appear set to return to a stable path once the 

pandemic has been brought under control

but with growth rates that are closer to longterm trends than the higher rates of the recent pre-pandemic years. Nevertheless, 

combined with moderate oil prices, this presents a supportive environment for air travel 

demand.

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

20

While 2020 was a very difficult year for carrier management because no amount of 

marketing, low fares or other strategizing 

could generate the much-needed activity, 

2021 will likely be equally challenging. Carriers will be eager to add capacity to capture 

revenue as long as that revenue covers the 

additional variable costs. Further, the added 

capacity will have the competitive purpose of 

defending market share. While the locations 

and extent of any demand recovery are extremely uncertain, overall activity will be 

weak. In 2021, ASM are forecast to grow 2.5 

percent. RPM and enplanements, however, 

are expected to fall (partly due to the timing 

of fiscal 2020, which included five strong 

months) by 9.7 and 0.7 percent, respectively. 

Load factors have already reflected this tension as they dropped from 82.9 percent in 

2019 to 72.3 percent in 2020. They fall further in 2021 to a low of 63.8 percent before 

returning gradually close to 2019 levels in 

2025.

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic Market International Market
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

21

The impact of COVID-19 on travel by region 

has varied somewhat, as will the recovery 

paths. Factors affecting the responses by 

market are similar to those affecting travel as 

a whole: COVID-19 case counts, governmental restrictions, predominant traveler 

segments, and macroeconomic conditions. 

In 2020, enplanements to Latin America suffered the least compared to the previous 

year, followed by the Pacific and Atlantic regions.

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination with more 

than twice the enplanements of Atlantic, the 

next largest in a typical year, due to its proximity to the U.S., strong trade ties, and popular visitor destinations. Enplanements in 

2020 fell an estimated 48.7 percent while 

RPMs fell 48.9 percent. Positive growth is 

projected to resume in 2021, supported in 

part by leisure traffic to warm weather destinations and by the relatively low number of 

COVID-19 cases and travel restrictions in 

some countries. Enplanements and RPMs 

are forecast to increase 16.0 and 20.8 percent, respectively, in 2021, and continue with 

double-digit increases in the following three 

years. RPM are expected to recover to 2019 

levels in early 2026. Over the twenty-year 

period 2021-2041, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average 

rate of 6.2 percent a year while RPMs grow 

6.5 percent a year. 

The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of 

enplanements despite the economic growth 

and potential of air travel to the region's 

emerging markets. In 2020, U.S. carriers 

saw enplanements drop 57.9 percent from 

their 2019 levels, as many countries closed 

their borders early in the year, especially 

China, a very large market in the region.

Meanwhile, traffic (RPMs) tumbled by 58.4

percent. In 2021, enplanements and RPM 

are expected to decline further though at 

slower rates: -36.0 and -32.2 percent, respectively. Because many countries in the 

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

22

Pacific region have had relative success in 

controlling COVID-19 transmission, travel restrictions will be slow to lift, contributing to the 

continued travel decline in 2021. Strong increases are projected for the following two 

years and RPM returns to 2019 levels in 

2025. For the twenty-year period 2021-

2041, Pacific enplanements are forecast to 

increase at an average rate of 5.7 percent a 

year while RPMs grow 6.3 percent a year. 

Although the region is forecast to have the 

strongest economic growth of any region 

over the next 20 years, led by China and India, enplanements and RPMs over the period are restrained in part because U.S. carriers continue to have a majority of their service in the region to Japan as opposed to 

faster growing countries. 

With roughly twice the enplanements of the 

Pacific region in recent years, the Atlantic region ranks in the middle. After contracting in

2015 and 2016, Atlantic enplanements have

accelerated steadily in recent years reaching

7.0 percent growth in 2019. This growth was

supported by U.S. demand as well as growth 

of Middle East and African markets, even as

the European economies slowed in 2019. In 

2020, like the other regions, Atlantic enplanements tumbled by 61.1 percent and 

2021 is projected to see another, smaller decline. Percentage gains in subsequent years 

are large, returning enplanements to 2019 

levels in early 2025. While Western Europe 

is a mature area with moderate economic 

growth, the economically smaller Middle 

East and Africa areas are expanding rapidly 

with GDP growth rates more than twice that 

of Europe. As a result, a larger share of the 

forecast aviation demand in the Atlantic region is linked to those two areas, particularly 

in the second half of the forecast period. 

Over the twenty-year period from 2021 to 

2041, enplanements and RPM in the Atlantic 

region are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 6.9 percent. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

23

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world fell even more in 2020 than 

did U.S. carriers alone. Foreign carriers, 

without the relative strength of domestic markets for support, were forced to reduce capacity more and thereby sacrificed passenger traffic. Total passengers collapsed by an 

estimated 73.4 percent to 67 million in 2020

as all regions posted losses led by an 80.4

percent reduction in the Atlantic region. 

FAA projects total international passenger 

growth of 58.3 percent in 2021 as global economic growth rebounds. The strongest passenger growth is expected in the Latin region

and the slowest in the Pacific. Similar to 

growth rates of enplanements on U.S. carriers, total passenger growth rates in the early 

years of the forecast are high, returning passenger numbers to 2019 levels in 2025. 

Moderate global economic growth averaging 

2.9 percent a year over the next 20 years 

(2021-2041) is the foundation for the forecast 

growth of international passengers of 9.4

percent a year, as levels increase more than 

six-and-a-half times from 67 million in 2020

to 446 million in 2041.

The Atlantic and Latin American regions 

were of comparable size in 2019 and both 

reach the end of the forecast period again at 

similar sizes although the paths differ. Atlantic growth is faster early on and slows relative 

to Latin American in later years, consistent 

89

17 25

99 113 128 144 160

89

33 53

86

101

118

138

160

44

9

12

41

47

54

61

69

32

7

17

35

39

44

50

57

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2019 2020 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

24

with GDP forecasts. Over the 20-year forecast period (2021-2041), the Atlantic region 

grows at an average annual rate of 11.2 percent while Latin America grows at a rate of 

7.7 percent. Although European markets in 

the Atlantic region are mature and relatively 

slow growing, other markets such as the Middle East and Africa boost overall growth in 

the region.

In the Pacific region, stringent COVID-19 

travel restrictions combined with sluggish 

Japanese GDP growth will offset some of the 

strong economic growth and rising incomes 

in China, India and South Korea, resulting in 

a relatively slow return to 2019 passenger 

levels in 2027. From 2021 to 2041, passengers between the United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 9.9 percent 

a year. 

Like the Atlantic region, Canada transborder

is another mature market but is considerably 

smaller. It is projected to grow at an average 

rate of 10.5 percent over the forecast period, 

similar to the Atlantic region. Total passenger counts return to 2019 levels in 2024, the 

fastest of the four regions.

Cargo

Air cargo traffic includes both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars, as well as from other air 

carriers.

U.S. air carriers flew 43.9 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2020, up 2.3 percent from 

2019 with domestic cargo RTMs increasing 

9.6 percent to 17.8 billion while international 

RTMs contracted 2.1 percent to 26.1 billion. 

In the prior year (2019) domestic RTM increased just 2.8 percent and international 

declined 1.3 percent. The surge in 2020 domestic RTM was supported by consumers 

purchasing goods to enhance time spent at 

home as necessitated by the pandemic. Air 

cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 88.0 percent of total RTMs in 2020, 

with passenger carriers flying the remainder. 

Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 12.2 percent in 2020 while total 

RTMs flown by passenger carriers fell by 

37.8 percent. Although many passenger carriers reconfigured aircraft to accommodate 

more cargo, the sheer drop in passenger 

flights outweighed that increase, resulting in 

the steep drop of passenger carrier RTM. As 

passenger flights return, the share of cargo 

on passenger carriers will increase, rising 

from 12 percent in 2020 to about 19 percent 

in 2024.

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic 

spans four regions consisting of Atlantic, 

Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, globalization and trade. 

The forecasts of revenue ton miles rely on 

several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air 

cargo transportation will remain in place. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

25

Second, most of the shift from air to ground 

transportation has occurred. Finally, longterm cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs derive from models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs depend on growth 

in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs 

between passenger and all-cargo carriers 

based on an analysis of historic trends in 

shares, changes in industry structure, and 

market assumptions. 

After increasing by 2.3 percent in 2020, total 

RTMs are expected to grow 5.5 percent in 

2021, primarily due to strong increases in 

passenger carrier RTM growth. Because of 

steady U.S. and world economic growth in 

the long term, FAA projects total RTMs to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent over the forecast period (from 2021 to 

2041). 

Following a 9.6 percent surge in 2020, domestic cargo RTMs are projected to moderate in subsequent years as the boost from 

the pandemic fades. Between 2021 and 

2041, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to 

increase at an average annual rate of 1.6

percent. In 2020, all-cargo carriers carried 

93.4 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The 

all-cargo share is forecast to decline modestly to 91.1 percent in the medium-term as 

passenger flights return to the system. In the 

long-term, the all-cargo share rises only 

slightly to 92.1 percent by 2041 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers. 

International cargo RTMs fell 2.1 percent in 

2020 after posting a 1.3 percent decline in 

2019. As with domestic markets, RTM carried by all-cargo carriers grew strongly in 

2020 while that transported by passenger 

carriers fell even more sharply: 11.6 percent 

compared to -40.8 percent. With the postpandemic return of passenger flights, RTM 

on passenger aircraft is expected to grow 

rapidly, increasing about 19 percent per year 

from 2021 to 2024. Over the same period, 

all-cargo RTM grows at about 2 percent per 

year as passenger carriers capture much of 

the overall growth. Following that period of 

recovery, growth for both types of carriers returns to long-run trend rates. For the forecast 

period (2021-2041), international cargo 

RTMs are expected to increase an average 

of 3.8 percent a year based on projected 

growth in world GDP with the Pacific International region having the fastest RTM growth

(4.3 percent), followed by Other (4.1 percent), Atlantic (3.2 percent), and Latin America region (3.1 percent). 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers was 84.2 percent in 

2020 and is forecast to decline steadily during the recovery period before gradually increasing in line with historical trends and 

ending at 78.4 percent in 2041. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

26

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Since the survey is 

conducted on a calendar year (CY) base and 

the records are collected by CY, the GA forecast is done by CY. Forecasts of new aircraft 

deliveries, which use the data from General 

Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), 

together with assumptions of retirement 

rates, generate growth rates of the fleet by 

aircraft categories, which are applied to the 

GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts 

are carried out for “active aircraft,”5 not total 

aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in January and June.

The results of the 2019 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The active GA fleet was estimated to be 210,981

aircraft in 2019 (0.4 percent decline from 

2018), as increases in fixed wing turbine, rotorcraft, lighter-than-air and light sport aircraft (LSA) were offset by decreases in the

fixed wing piston, experimental aircraft and 

gliders. Total hours flown were estimated to 

be 25.6 million, up 0.2 percent from 2018. Increases in fixed wing piston aircraft, rotorcraft, LSA, experimental and lighter-thanair aircraft hours offset declines in fixed wing 

turbine aircraft and glider hours.

In 2020, deliveries of the general aviation aircraft manufactured in the U.S. decreased to 

1,552, 12.4 percent lower than in CY 2019. 

Deliveries of single-engine piston aircraft

were up 3.2 percent, while the much smaller 

segment of multi-engine piston deliveries 

were down by 46.6 percent (summing to a 

0.1 percent decline in the fixed engine piston 

deliveries). Business jet deliveries declined

by 29.8 percent and turboprop deliveries 

were down by 17.7 percent, amounting for a 

24.5 percent decrease in fixed wing turbine 

shipments. While the GAMA statistics for factory net billings were not available yet for the 

U.S. manufactured GA aircraft, global billings 

decreased in 2020 by 14.8 percent to $20 billion, nearly the same level as in 2018.

 5 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

27

GAMA also reported the rotorcraft deliveries 

declined at a global level in 2020 in both piston and turbine segments by 20.7 percent 

and 16.9 percent, respectfully.

Against these current conditions, we expect 

the GA sector, which was not as severely affected by the pandemic as the airlines, to recover sooner to its 2019 levels by aircraft 

type than the other sectors. Then, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The 

active general aviation fleet, which showed a 

decline of 2.8 percent between 2019 and 

2020, is projected to slightly increase from its 

current level, as the increases in the turbine, 

experimental, and light sport fleets remain 

just above the declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet. The total active general aviation 

fleet changes from an estimated 204,980 in 

2020 to 208,790 aircraft by 2041 (a small increase of 0.1 percent annually). When measured from pre-COVID-19 levels in 2019, the 

active GA fleet of 210,981 remains statistically flat, or experiences an annual decline of 

0.05 percent on average. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 12,990 aircraft between 

2020 and 2041 to total 45,530 in 2041, an 

average rate of 1.6 percent a year during this 

period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 2.3

percent a year. When measured from the 

2019 levels, the growth rate for the turbinepowered fleet is also 1.6 percent. The 

growth in U.S. GDP and corporate profits are 

catalysts for the growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Shipments

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings

Global Shipments Shipments of U.S. Manufactured Aircraft

U.S. Billings ($ Billion) Global Billings ($ Billion)

Source: GAMA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

28

forecast period by 23,410 aircraft (an average annual rate of -0.9 percent – whether it 

is measured from the fleet of 141,396 in 2019 

or 140,315 in 2020, by the time it reaches to 

116,905 in 2041). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, availability of much lower 

cost alternatives for recreational usage, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping 

pace with retirements of the aging fleet are 

the drivers of the decline.

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 4.5 percent annually, adding 

about 3,270 new aircraft by 2041, doubling

its 2019 fleet size of 2,675.

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to marginally decline, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

forecast to increase an average of 0.6 percent per year through 2041, from 25.6 million 

in 2019 to 29.4 million, as the newer aircraft 

fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston 

hours are forecast to decrease by 0.9 percent, the same rate as the fleet decline. 

Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine 

aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to 

increase 2.2 percent yearly between 2019 

and 2041. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, with hours 

flown increasing at an average annual rate of 

3.1 percent over the forecast period. The 

large increases in jet hours result mainly from 

the increasing size of the business jet fleet. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2010 2021 2031 2041

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

29

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the pandemic conditions as 

most of the other aircraft categories, faces 

the challenges brought by lower oil prices, a 

continuing trend. The low oil prices impacted

utilization rates and new aircraft orders both 

directly through decreasing activity in oil exploration, and also through a slowdown in related economic activity. Their active fleet is 

projected to grow at a slower rate than the

previous year’s forecast, more so for the piston segment, to reach from a total of (piston 

and turbine together) 10,198 in 2019 to 

13,390 in 2041. Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 1.7 percent annually over 

the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.0 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 691,691

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2020. The number of certificates in some pilot categories continued to increase, while 

there were different rates of declines in the 

rotorcraft only, ATP, private, and recreational 

certificates. The FAA has suspended the student pilot forecast for the forth-consecutive

year. The number of student pilot certificates 

has been affected by a regulatory change

that went into effect in April 2016 and removed the expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. The number of student 

pilots jumped from 128,501 at the end of 

2016 to 149,121 by the end of 2017, and to 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2010 2021 2031 2041

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

30

222,629 at the end of 2020. The 2016 rule 

change generates a cumulative increase in 

the certificate numbers and breaks the link 

between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher. There is 

no sufficient data yet to perform a reliable 

forecast for the student pilots.

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates. The number of 

both commercial pilot and ATP certificates 

had increased until 2012 for three years. 

Commercial pilot certificate holders continued to increase in 2020 to 103,879. Significantly reduced number of flights and a large 

number of parked aircraft due to the pandemic generated an overcapacity for the 

ATPs employed by the airlines, despite government support to the aviation sector. Consequently, the number of pilots holding an 

ATP certificate slightly declined in 2020 for 

the first time since 2011 to 164,193 (still 

higher than the 2018 level).

Private pilots experienced a slight decrease 

in 2020 as well, from 161,105 in 2019 to 

160,860. Sport pilot certificates, created in 

2005, kept their steady increase since their 

inception to reach 6,643 by December 31, 

2020. Rotorcraft pilots continued their decline since 2016 to end up with 13,629 by the 

end of 2020. 

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to decrease about 2,650 (down 0.04 percent 

yearly) between 2020 and 2041. The ATP 

category is forecast to increase by 27,400

(up 0.7 percent annually). The much smaller 

category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 2.7 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private 

and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate 

of 0.42 and 0.06 percent, respectively until 

2041.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

31

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2010 2020 2031 2041

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Airline Transport Pilot

Rotorcraft only
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

32

FAA Operations

The traffic at FAA facilities underwent drastic 

changes from 2019 to 2020 due to COVID19. Activities declined about 17 percent from 

53.3 million in 2019 to 44.4 million in 2020. 

The recovery from the pandemic will drive 

the near term growth. Consequently, elevated growth is predicted to last until around 

2025 and 2026. After the predicted operations reach the pre-pandemic level, the 

longer term economic health along with the 

growth in air travel demand and the business 

aviation fleet will drive the long term growth 

in operations at FAA facilities over the rest of 

the forecast period. The forecast annual 

growth rates during the period of 2021 to 

2041 will be significantly greater than what 

was predicted last year as a result of robust 

growth in the near term from the pent-up demand. Activity at FAA and contract towers is 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.9

percent a year through 2041 from 44.4 million in 2021 to close to 64.2 million in 2041.

Commercial operations6 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 3.4 percent a year, 

approximately five times faster than noncommercial operations. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in 

U.S. airline passengers (3.4 percent versus

5.6 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft 

mile) and higher load factors. Both of these 

trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate 

more passengers without increasing the 

number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 56 percent of operations in 2020) are forecast to increase an 

average of 0.75 percent a year as increases 

in turbine powered activity more than offset 

declines in piston activity. 

The growth in operations at towered airports 

is not uniform. Most of the activity at large 

and medium hubs7 is commercial in nature, 

given that these are the airports where most 

of the passengers, about 88 percent in 2020, 

in the system fly to.

 6 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

7 A large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more 

of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in 

FY 2019. A medium hub is defined to have at 

least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total 

U.S. revenue passenger enplanements. In the 

2020 TAF there were 30 large hub airports and 

32 medium hub airports.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

33

Given the growth in airline demand and most 

of that demand is at large and medium hubs, 

activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than small 

towered airports including small FAA towers8

and FAA contract towers9

. The forecasted 

annual growth is 3.9 percent at large hubs, 3

percent at medium hubs, 1 percent at small 

FAA towers, and 0.8 percent at FAA contract 

towers between 2021 and 2041. 

Among the 30 large hubs, the airports with 

the fastest annual growth forecast are those 

located along the coastal sections of the 

country where most large cities are located. 

 8 Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor 

FAA contract towers.

9 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers 

providing air traffic control services under contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic 

control specialists.

Large cities have historically shown to generate robust economic activity, which in turn 

drives up the airline demand. On the other 

hand, the airports forecast to have slower annual growth tend to be located in the middle 

of the country. 

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations10 are forecast to grow 

slightly faster than at towered facilities. This 

is in part a reflection of the different mix of 

activity at Tracons. Tracon operations are 

forecast to increase an average of 2.5 percent a year between 2021 and 2041. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 54 percent of Tracon operations in 

10 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2011 2021 2031 2041

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower Operations

Commercial Non Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

34

2020 and are projected to grow 3.4 percent 

a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to 

grow only 0.96 percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. 

Growth in airline traffic and business aviation 

is expected to lead to increases in activity at 

En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, 

aircraft handled at En-Route centers are 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 3.4

percent a year from 2021 to 2041, with commercial activity growing at the rate of 4 percent annually. Activity at En-Route centers 

is forecast to grow faster than activity at towered airports and FAA Tracons because 

more of the activity at En-Route centers is 

from the faster growing commercial sector 

and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying.11 In 2020, the share of commercial IFR aircraft handled at FAA En-Route 

centers is about 80 percent, which is greater 

than the 54 percent share at Tracons or the

39 percent share at FAA and Contract Towers.

 11 Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is 

local in nature, and does not impact the centers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

35

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

After shrinking by 22.9% in 2020 (1,746 aircraft), the number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 

5,882 in 2020 to 8,756 in 2041, an average 

annual growth rate of 2 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in 

air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both 

the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2020 and 2041 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 3,181 to 5,101, a net average of 

30 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow-body fleet (including Eseries aircraft as well as A220-series at JetBlue and A220-series at Delta) is projected 

to grow 73 aircraft a year as carriers replace 

the 757 fleet and current technology 737 and 

A320 family aircraft with the next generation 

MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet 

grows by an average of 20 aircraft a year as 

carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the 

fleet while retiring 767-300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier 

wide-body fleet increases by 1.1 percent a 

year over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to increase slightly from 1,853 aircraft in 2020 to 

1,944 in 2041 as the fleet expands by 0.2

percent a year (4 aircraft) between 2020 and 

2041. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets 

and retire older small turboprop and piston 

aircraft, while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 family after 2021. By 2031 only 

a handful of 50 seat regional jets remain in 

the fleet. By 2041, the number of jets in the 

regional carrier fleet totals 1,838, up from 

1,434 in 2020. The turboprop/piston fleet is 

forecast to shrink by 75% from 419 in 2020

to 106 by 2041. These aircraft account for 

just 5.5 percent of the fleet in 2041, down 

from 22.6 percent in 2020. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 848 aircraft in 2020

to 1,711 aircraft in 2041 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by 15 aircraft a 

year as 737-800/900MAX’s are converted 

from passenger use to cargo service. The 

wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 

26 aircraft a year as new 777-8/10 and converted 767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, 

replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 767-

200 freighters.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

36

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2010 2020 2030 2041

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

37

Commercial Space

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also 

direct the U.S. Department of Transportation 

to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. 

commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is 

to license and regulate commercial launch 

and reentry operations and non-federal 

launch sites to protect public health and 

safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of 

the United States.

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons (which includes U.S. 

corporations) inside or outside the United 

States. The FAA does not license launches 

or reentries the U.S. Government carries out 

for the Government (such as those owned 

and operated by National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration (NASA) or the Department of Defense). Amateur-class rockets do 

not require a FAA license or permit12.

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs

the following major functions:

• Maintains an effective regulatory

framework for commercial space

transportation activities,

 12 Per 14 CFR Chapter 1, Part 1, section 1.1: Amateur rocket means an unmanned rocket that is 

propelled by a motor or motors having a combined total impulse of 889,600 Newton-seconds 

• Provides guidance to prospective

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for

obtaining an authorization and operating safely,

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space

transportation activities,

• Evaluates applications for licenses

for launch and reentry site operations,

• Monitors and enforces regulatory

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

and other regulated commercial 

space activities,

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

or reentry,

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into other modes of transportation including the National Airspace

System (NAS) by establishing appropriate hazard areas and limits to ensure the protection of the public,

• Coordinates research into the safety,

environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the

evolving commercial space transportation industry,

(200,000 pound-seconds) or less; and cannot 

reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers 

above the earth’s surface.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

38

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space industry by hosting working

groups and conferences, 

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as the Department of Defense and NASA to assure consistent 

approaches to regulations, policy, 

and standards, and

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world.

In addition to AST headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains staff with 

assigned duty locations near active launch 

ranges to facilitate communication with 

space launch operators and to implement 

FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are currently assigned to duty locations in close proximity to: 

Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station in Florida; Johnson 

Space Center in Texas; and, Vandenberg Air 

Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space 

Port in California. FAA also directly supports 

NASA’s commercial space initiatives by 

providing on-site staff at both the Johnson 

Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to 

coordinate the FAA’s regulatory and compliance activities with NASA’s development 

and operational requirements for commercial space.

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many activities performed by FAA

during this cycle. The most notable activities 

are described here. 

Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses, 

Experimental Permits, and Safety Element 

Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, FAA assists them in identifying potential 

obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. In addition, many new operators are seeking to incorporate new technologies, vehicle types, or operational models

creating opportunities for FAA to assist in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance.

Licenses, Permits, and Safety Element Approvals

FAA authorizes commercial space transportation activities via the issuance of licenses, 

permits, and safety element approval.

Though many licenses authorize multiple 

launches (for mature launch systems), the 

need remains for FAA to also issue individual 

launch licenses for systems that are still maturing towards a high level of reliability. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial 

space industry, FAA often evaluates launch 

and reentry systems and operations that are

evolving and changing, which may ultimately 

require license modifications or issuance of 

new licenses.

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 

health and safety or the safety of property, 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

39

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States.

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

and/or payload determination becomes part 

of the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing determination is based.

FAA reviews and issues launch and reentry 

site operator licenses and license renewals.

FAA also reviews and evaluates launch site 

license applications for launch sites located

in foreign countries but operating with U.S.-

licensed launch or reentry systems. FAA coordinates range planning among Federal, 

state, and local governments and with the

commercial range operators or users. As

part of the evaluation of applications for

launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site 

operator licenses, FAA also conducts environmental reviews consistent with its responsibilities under the National Environmental 

Policy Act.

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety element approvals for space launch

systems equipment, processes, technicians,

training and other supporting activities. FAA

reviews, evaluates, and issues safety approvals to support the continued introduction of 

new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications.

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive

safety analyses to support the evaluation and

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance of 

safety-critical space flight personnel to determine how they affect public safety risk. In the 

near future, as commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, AST and the FAA’s Office of Aerospace Medicine may evaluate, analyze, and

determine the health risks to the space flight 

participants (crew and space flight participants) due to natural and flight-induced

launch and reentry environments, as well as

any hazardous ground operations directly associated with the flight.

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 330 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year. Inspections often occur simultaneously at any of the

12 licensed U.S. and international commercial space launch sites, as well as at 4 Federal launch ranges and 3 exclusive-use 

launch sites. The establishment of non-federal launch sites requires additional inspections in areas such as ground safety that

have traditionally been overseen by the U.S.

Air Force (now the U.S. Space Force) at Federal ranges. At spaceports and launch sites

with high launch rates (e.g., Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force

Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport,

and Spaceport America), at least 80 percent 

of inspections are typically conducted by locally-based field inspectors. Additionally, as 

a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many inspections in fiscal year (FY) 2020 were handled remotely. FAA will leverage this approach in the upcoming years in order to respond to a dynamic operational tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency.

Mishap Investigations

Mishap events have demonstrated that FAA

needs to have the capacity to oversee the investigation of at least two space launch or 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

40

reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously 

anywhere in the world, and to lead/oversee

as many as nine investigations during a single year. FAA anticipates an increase in mishaps with new operators coming online. FAA

should have the capabilities and resources to

efficiently review all applicant mishap plans

and accident investigation procedures as

part of the license and permit evaluation process.

NAS Integration

AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP) to 

support the safe and efficient integration of 

commercial launch and reentry operations 

through the NAS and its system of airports 

and air traffic managed by the ATO. AST expects an increased level of interaction with 

the ATO, ARP, and the FAA Office of 

NextGen (ANG). Further, AST works with 

the ATO as FAA develops technologies to

facilitate safe and efficient integration of commercial launch and reentry operations into

the NAS, including technologies to improve

the integration of launch and reentry data into

FAA air traffic control systems and technologies to improve the timely and accurate development and distribution of notices of aircraft hazard areas.

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast

To improve its workforce planning process, 

in 2014, FAA adopted an approach to estimate its future staffing needs based on the

ratio of regulatory safety oversight staff to a

forecast of launch and reentry operations 

within the purview of the FAA mission. Although it was a modest improvement, this

change set the groundwork for FAA to implement a more objective and transparent process for projecting staffing requirements and 

also necessitated development of credible operations forecasts. Since 2014, FAA has

made several important improvements to its

operations forecast:

• In 2015, FAA began using planned

launch and reentry data collected

from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its

launch and reentry forecasts. This

change enabled FAA to simplify and

improve its forecasting methodology

by tying launch and reentry forecasts

directly to anticipated operations by 

commercial space transportation firms 

known to FAA, rather than to aggregate industry demand.

• Because commercial spaceflight is a 

highly dynamic and rapidly evolving 

industry, it was quickly determined 

that operator-provided data alone 

were not sufficient to reliably predict

future activity. Consequently, a primary pillar of FAA’s forecasting 

methodology is to take a conservative view of industry growth in the 

near term. Therefore, in 2016, FAA

began refining its forecasting methodology by using observations about 

historical launch activity to establish

better forecasting parameters for

both new applicants and existing operators.

There are several factors that magnify the 

challenges associated with predicting the 

number of launches and reentries to expect 

in a given year. They include:

• list of firms intending to launch or actually launch is dynamic, 

• continued development of new technologies, 

• launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

41

• commercial human spaceflight by 

both government astronauts and private citizens,

• dynamic nature of flight test programs, and 

• mishaps. 

For example, the number of firms actively 

communicating with FAA increased from 14 

in 2014 to 68 in 2020, an increase of more 

than 380 percent. New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)] allow a faster 

operational tempo, and at the same time, 

early use of these technologies can increase 

the probability of a mishap. A mishap can 

drastically impact launch plans for one or 

more firms. Investigations and subsequent 

“return to flight” for firms impacted by a mishap can take months. It is also important to 

note that the FY2021 number is best described not as a forecast but rather a midyear correction on previous forecast numbers, considering this forecast is published 

six months into FY2021.

Taking these factors into account, the following table and graph provide industry’s and 

FAA’s forecast through 2025, as well as historical activity.

Fiscal Year Industry Forecast FAA Forecast Actual

Historical

2015 37 22 - 25 14

2016 32 25 - 29 17

2017 78 17 - 26 22

2018 87 27 - 38 35

2019 89 33 - 44 32

2020 96 34 - 46 33

Forecast

2021 105 36 - 44

2022 137 37 - 55

2023 167 39 - 53

2024 209 39 - 59

2025 266 45 - 66

Notes:

1. FAA Forecast entries represent the Low to High estimate.

2. Industry Forecast for 2015 follows COMSTAC methodology from 

2014. Industry forecasts for all other years follow the same methdology: 

FAA-authorized launch and reentry operators provide to FAA the number 

of FAA-authorized operations (launches, reentries, orbital and suborbital) 

that industry expects to occur per fiscal year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

42

It is important to note all FAA-authorized 

commercial space operations are included in 

this forecast, regardless of where they occurred in the world. That is, not all launch 

and reentry activity occurs at one location, for 

example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the NAS and beyond, including multiple reentries in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and six licensed launches from 

New Zealand. This forecast, however, does 

not include launch activity not authorized by 

the FAA (e.g. U.S. Department of Defense or 

non-commercial NASA launches), launch activity for other nations, and this forecast is not 

tied exclusively to satellite demand.

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly

evolving industry. The industry’s growth

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging on an Accelerated 

Basis

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies

and new approaches to space launch and

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and

FY20

15

FY20

16

FY20

17

FY20

18

FY20

19

FY20

20

FY20

21

FY20

22

FY20

23

FY20

24

FY20

25

Actual 14 17 22 35 32 33

Forecast High 25 29 26 38 44 46 44 55 53 59 66

Forecast Low 22 25 17 27 33 34 36 37 39 39 45

Industry Forecast 37 32 78 87 89 96 105 137 167 209 266

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Number of FAA Licensed and Permitted Operations by

Fiscal Year, World-wide
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

43

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their vertically launched rockets. 

Both companies are now developing a new 

generation of much larger orbital vehicles 

that will launch and land in a vertical configuration. In 2020, Rocket Lab successfully recovered a flown booster, and announced 

plans to re-fly it in 2021. While these new 

orbital-class vehicles are unlikely to lead to a 

significant increase in the number of annual 

launch and reentry operations over the next 

three years, they may cause a greater increase further in the future, as the upper end 

of the forecast shows in fiscal years 2024 

and 2025. Other U.S. commercial entities 

are also pursuing the development of reusable launch vehicles (RLVs). At the same 

time, state and local governments are joining 

with commercial firms to promote additional 

launch and reentry sites, and some firms are 

seeking to establish launch sites for their exclusive use. This added launch capacity sets 

the stage for simultaneous operations and an 

increase in the number operations per year.

New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation are Emerging

The continuing development of commercial 

space transportation technology has spurred

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As private industry continues 

to develop and test new vehicles capable of 

taking space flight participants and government astronauts on suborbital and orbital 

flights, companies and organizations are proposing to offer human space flight training

and several organizations have already begun to provide this service. States and municipalities have sought to open new spaceports to attract commercial space transportation and associated high-tech firms and create technology hubs for research and development. Since 2008, NASA has managed

the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) 

program, which acquires transportation services from commercial providers to deliver

cargo to and from the International Space

Station (ISS). In 2020, SpaceX successfully 

transported NASA astronauts to the International Space Station under the auspices of 

a Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities contract – the first time humans have 

traveled to orbit under an FAA-license. 

Boeing is expected to do the same for NASA 

in 2021. The commercial vehicles used by

NASA for cargo and crew transportation will 

have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the commercial 

space transportation industry as a whole. 

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers.

Additional FAA resources may be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

44

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have 

been experiencing healthy growth in the 

United States and around the world over the 

past few years. Last year has been no exception despite the profound impact of 

COVID-19 on the overall economy. A UAS 

consists of an unmanned aircraft and its associated elements—including the aircraft, 

the control station, and the associated communication links—that are required for safe 

and efficient operation in the national airspace system (NAS). While introduction of 

UAS in the NAS has opened up numerous 

possibilities, commercial in particular, it has 

brought operational challenges including 

safe integration into the NAS. Despite these 

challenges, the UAS sector holds enormous 

promise; potential uses include modelers flying for recreational purposes to delivering 

packages on a commercial basis; including 

the delivery of medical supplies; and provision of support for search and rescue missions following natural disasters and other 

public service uses. 

This section provides a broad overview covering recreational and commercial (or Part 

107) unmanned aircraft13 and their recent 

trends as gathered from trends in registration, surveys, overall market, and operational 

information. Using these trends and insights 

from industry, the FAA has produced a number of forecasts. Forecasts reported in the 

following sections are driven primarily by the 

trends in registrations, assumptions of the 

continuing evolution of the regulatory environment, the commercial ingenuity of manufacturers and operators, persistent recreational uses, and underlying demand for UAS 

services. 

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft and Forecast

FAA’s online registration system for recreational/model sUAS went into effect on Dec. 

21, 2015. This required all UAS weighing 

more than 0.55 pounds (or 250 grams) and 

fewer than 55 pounds (or 25 kilograms) to be 

registered using the on-line system 

(https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/registration/) or the existing (paper-driven) aircraft registry. Registration was 

 13 These are also called, interchangeably, hobby 

and non-hobby UAS, respectively. On October 5, 

2018, the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 (Pub. L. 115-254). Section 349 of 

that Act repealed the Special Rule for Model Aircraft (section 336 of Pub. L. 112-95; Feb. 14, 

2012) and replaced it with new conditions to operate recreational sUAS without requirements for 

FAA certification or operating authority. The Exception for Limited Recreational Operations of 

Unmanned Aircraft established by section 349 is 

free for the first 30 days, and $5 thereafter. 

Following a temporary halt in registration due 

to an order from the US Appeals Court in 

Washington, D.C. in May, 2017 (i.e., Taylor 

v. Huerta), the registration requirement for all 

model aircraft was reinstated in December, 

2017 with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) [Pub. L. 115-91, Sec. 1092]. 

NDAA extended the registration for three 

codified at 49 U.S.C. 44809 [see https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-

10169/exception-for-limited-recreational-operations-of-unmanned-aircraft for more details]. Recreational fliers, under Section 349, are referred to 

as “recreational fliers or modeler communitybased organizations” 

[seehttps://www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/]. 

In previous notes including other documents of 

the Agency, these terms are often interchanged.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

45

years for those registered prior to December, 

2017. Registration pace continued after the 

temporary halt was removed. On October 5, 

2018, the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 that formalized new 

conditions for recreational use of drones 

[See https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=91844 for more details]. 

With the continuing registration, almost 1.14 

million recreational UAS owners had already 

registered with the FAA by end of November, 

2020.14 On average, owner registration 

stood at around 12,400 per month during 

January-December, 2020 with some expected peaks during the holiday seasons 

and summer.

The current pace of registration has increased compared to last year in the same 

period; average monthly owner registration 

during 2020 stood 3,000 more than the level 

observed in 2019. 

 14 For our estimate and projections using the registration database, applying to recreational, commercial (Part 107) and remote pilots, we use only 

those who are registered in the U.S. and the territories. Furthermore, we use those registrants 

Recreational registration, and thus ownership of sUAS, is distributed throughout the 

country. Using the data available in December 2020, a spatial distribution of ownership 

by zip code below demonstrates that sUAS 

continue to be distributed throughout the 

country with denser ownership mapping 

who are “active;” i.e., those whose registrations 

have been canceled or withdrawn are not part of 

the data we report in this document. Finally, using 

the trends for the prior months in 2020 and years 

before, we extrapolate it to December, 2020 for 

completion of annual data. 

137,705 

1,136,513 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Number of Active Registration in the U.S.

2015:Q4 2016:Q3 2017:Q2 2018:Q1 2018:Q4 2019:Q3 2020:Q2

Year/Quarter

Model/Recreation Registrations by Quarters/Year (Cumulative)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

46

closely against the population centers of the 

country, as expected. 

At present, recreational ownership registration does not correspond one-to-one with aircraft. Unlike their commercial non-model 

counterparts, the registration rules for recreational operators do not require owners of 

recreational sUAS to register each individual 

aircraft; only operators are registered. For 

each registration, therefore, one or more aircraft are possibly owned. In some instances, 

there is no equipment associated with registration. Free registration at the initial phase 

may have incentivized some to create registration without any equipment to report. Notwithstanding these challenges, there is information available, both from industry and academia, allowing us to understand aircraft 

ownership. Furthermore, under the sponsorship of the UAS Integration Research Plan, 

 15 This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of aircraft corresponding to ownership registration. As aircraft become sturdier and operators situationally aware, 

the Agency has launched various research 

activities to understand the possible magnitude of the sector as well as implications on 

likely aircraft that may be used for recreational flying and safety implications of the 

sUAS fleet from gradual integration into the 

NAS. Finally, the Agency has incorporated 

outside analysis to aid forecasting efforts. 

With around 1.14 recreational operators registered as of December, 2020, we estimate 

that there are around 1.44 million fleet distinctly identified as recreational aircraft. 

Comparing with industry sales and other 

data noted above, we conclude that the number of recreational aircraft is almost 30% 

higher than ownership registration.15

we expect this rate to change dynamically over 

time. Assumptions tying ownership to aircraft 

holding and issues related to compliance have 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

47

A comparison of last year’s data (2019) with 

this year’s (2020) shows the annual growth 

rate to be approximately 8.5%. This was possible due to continuation of drones playing 

dominant roles in recreation that is facilitated 

by decreasing equipment prices (e.g., average price around $750 or less), improved 

technology such as built-in cameras and 

higher capability sensors, and relatively easy 

maneuvering. Furthermore, it appears that 

COVID-19 had a positive impact on recreational registration (see below for more details). Nevertheless, similar to all technologies fueling growth of hobby items (e.g., cell 

phone and video game consoles; and prior to 

that, video cameras and video players), the 

trend in recreational sUAS has been slowing. 

It is likely to slow down further as the pace of 

falling prices diminishes and the early 

adopters begin to experience limits in their 

experiments, or recreational eagerness plateaus. 

Given the trend in registration and market developments, we forecast that the recreational 

sUAS market will saturate at around 1.55 million units. However, there is still some upside 

uncertainty due to further changes in technology including battery, faster integration 

from a regulatory standpoint, and the likely 

event of continued decreasing prices. This 

leads to upside possibilities in the forecast. 

In contrast, there is relatively less low-side 

uncertainty. Low-side uncertainty tracks 

closer to the base forecast. We provide a 

forecast base (i.e., likely) with high and low 

scenarios, provided in the table below. 

Last year, we forecasted that the recreational 

sUAS sector would have around 1.38 million 

sUAS in 2020, a growth rate exceeding 4.5% 

from the year before (2019). Actual data 

overshot the projection by a little over 53,000

with over 1.44 million aircraft already accounted for by the end of 2020. Thus, our 

forecast of recreational sUAS last year undershot by 3.7% for 2020; or 1.4365 million 

actual aircraft vs 1.3833 million aircraft that 

we projected last year.

Fiscal Year Low Base High

Historical

2020 1.4365 1.4365 1.4365

Forecast

2021 1.4544 1.5022 1.5417

2022 1.4668 1.5303 1.5935

2023 1.4708 1.5415 1.6157

2024 1.4719 1.5455 1.6237

2025 1.4724 1.5510 1.6347

Total Recreation/Model Fleet (Million sUAS Units)

 

been discussed elsewhere [see https://www.napawash.org/studies/academystudies/federal-aviation-administration-assessment-of-compliance with-and-effective for a recent study by the National Academy of Public Administration on these 

issues]. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

48

The FAA uses the trend observed in registrations, particularly over the past year; expert 

opinions distilled from TRB annual workshops; review of available industry forecasts; 

market/industry research; and a time-series 

model on registration trends fitted on monthly 

data. Using these, we forecast that the recreational sUAS fleet will likely (i.e., base scenario) attain its peak over the next 5 years, 

from the present 1.44 million units to around 

1.55 million units by 2025. The high scenario 

may reach as high as 1.63 million units with 

low-side scenario yielding around 1.47 million units over the next 5 years. Notice that 

eventual saturation at somewhat higher levels, in comparison to last year’s projections, 

reflects relatively higher registration by recreational flyers observed during 2020. This 

increased registration trend, in part driven by 

COVID-19, may or may not continue in the 

longer run16. Nevertheless, the growth rates 

underlying these numbers are fairly steady in

the initial years, but fade faster in the last 2-

3 years. The gradual saturation that is projected in 5 years and beyond in the recreational sUAS fleet parallels other consumer 

technology products and the Agency’s projections from last year.

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast

Online registration for commercial/nonmodel sUAS went into effect on April 1, 2016. 

Unlike recreational/model ownership, rules 

for commercial registration require owners to 

register each sUAS, thus creating a one-toone correspondence between registration 

and aircraft. During the period of January –

December, 202017, more than 94,000 commercial operators registered their equipment. 

The pace of monthly registration, slightly 

above 7,800, is still relatively high but lower 

than the same period in 2019 (around 

10,000). It appears that the pace of registration is slowing down in comparison to 2019 

and comparable historically (i.e., April 2016 

– November 2019 roughly 8,500 per month). 

While the pace of recreational registration 

ownership has increased somewhat, particularly last year, the pace of registration remains somewhat dampened for their commercial counterparts. By the end of 2020, 

there were more than 488,000 commercial 

UAS registered since the registration 

opened. 

 

 16 It is quite likely that many people are buying and 

experimenting with recreational sUAS given the 

COVID-19 public health emergency and a substantial portion of the workforce is presently working from home. This may or may not continue 

once regular work patterns are resumed. 

17 As noted in fn. #2, using actual registrations until November, 2020, trends for the prior months in 

2020 and years before, we extrapolate it to December, 2020 for completion of yearly data.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

49

For each month the registration has been 

available, over 4,600 aircraft/month were 

registered until December, 2017. This pace 

accelerated to 14,600 registered per month 

during 2018. During 2019, average monthly 

registration stood at around 10,100. In the 

past year of 2020, average monthly registration dropped to 7,850. Despite this slowdown, the commercial sUAS sector is dynamic and appears to be at an inflexion point 

demonstrating powerful stages of growth. 

Unlike the recreational sUAS sector, the FAA 

anticipates that the growth rate in this sector 

will remain high over the next few years. This 

is primarily driven by the regulatory clarity 

that Part 107 has, and continues to provide, 

to the industry. In particular, the Operation 

Over People final rule, published on December 28, 2020, is the latest incremental step 

towards further integration of sUAS into the 

NAS. This final rule allows routine operations 

over people and routine operations at night 

under certain circumstances and eliminates 

the need for individual Part 107 waivers 

[seehttps://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/OOP_Executive_Summary.pdf for 

more details]. 

The Remote ID rule was announced on December 28, 2020 

[seehttps://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/RemoteID_Final_Rule.pdf] as well. 

Remote ID (i.e., digital license-plate) of unmanned aircraft is necessary to ensure public safety and efficiency of the airspace of the 

United States. The rule applies to all operators of drones that require FAA registration

(i.e., both recreational and Part 107). Remote ID provides airspace awareness to the 

FAA, national security agencies, law enforcement entities, and other government officials. Under the present rule guidance, unmanned aircraft in flight is to provide, via 

broadcast, certain identification, location, 

and performance information that interested 

parties on the ground and other airspace users can receive. 

12,093 

488,043 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016:Q1 2016:Q4 2017:Q3 2018:Q2 2019:Q1 2019:Q4 2020:Q3

Number of Active Non-Model 

Registration in the U.S.

Year/Quarter

Non-Model Registrations of sUAS Aircraft by 

Quarters/Year (Cumulative)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

50

There are three ways to comply with the Remote ID rule: (a) operate a standard remote 

ID sUAS broadcasting identification and location information of both the aircraft and 

control station; (b) operate a sUAS with a remote ID broadcast module attached to it that 

broadcasts identification, location and takeoff information; and (c) operate a sUAS without Remote ID but flying at specific FAA-recognized identification areas (or FRIAs) [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/remote_id/]. The final rule was been published 

in Federal Register on January 15, 2021, and 

almost all of the final rule goes into effect on 

April 21, 2021[seehttps://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/01/15/2020-

28948/remote-identification-of-unmannedaircraft as amended byhttps://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/03/10/2021-

04882/remote-identification-of-unmannedaircraft-delay]. 

These two rules together provide muchneeded regulatory clarity and reduce the 

need for waivers under Part 107. With enhancement of operational efficiencies under 

increasingly well-defined concepts of operations (CONOPS)—which ensures safety and 

transparent information flow across the community—more and more commercial uses 

will become likely, fueling even further 

growth. Notably, one such place for receiving 

all operational information, including registration, authorization, and logging accident reports, helps facilitate this growth further 

[https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/]. 

As in the case of recreational UAS ownership, commercial sUAS are distributed 

across the country. A spatial distribution of 

equipment registration (using data for December 2020) demonstrates that commercial 

sUAS are distributed throughout the country 

with denser activities mapping closely 

against the economic or commercial activities of the country. 

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the commercial UAS sector would have around 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

51

507,000 sUAS in 2020, a growth rate exceeding 32% over the year before (2019). 

Actual data came close to that projection with 

a little over 488,000 aircraft by the end of 

2020. Our forecast of commercial sUAS last 

year thus overshot by 3.7% for 2019 (or 

488,043 actual aircraft vs 506,776 projected 

last year). Forecasting in a time of tremendous uncertainty is indeed challenging, especially given the economic slowdown during 

COVID-19 and its impact on the UAS sector. 

The commercial sUAS sector’s fast growth 

and adjustments during the pandemic is a 

demonstration of that fact. Nevertheless, our 

forecast errors for both recreation and commercial appear to be within the bounds of 

reasonableness. 

Fiscal Year Low Base High

Historical

2020 488 488 488

Forecast

2021 543 589 691

2022 569 665 871

2023 583 729 1,028

2024 601 784 1,094

2025 614 835 1,144

Total Commercial/Non-Model Fleet (Thousand sUAS Units)

We use the trends observed in the registration during the years past, information from 

the survey conducted in 2018, review of 

available industry forecasts/workshops and 

past FAA UAS Symposiums, and internal research together with market/industry research. Using these, the FAA forecasts that 

the commercial UAS fleet by 2025 will likely 

(i.e., base scenario) be at around 835,000; 

1.7 times larger than the current number of 

commercial sUAS.18 As the present base 

(i.e., the cumulative total) increases, the FAA 

anticipates the growth rate of the sector will 

slow down over time. Nevertheless, the sector will be much larger than what was only a 

few years earlier. 

 18 Last year, the ratio of end-year forecast to base 

year forecast was 2-times; i.e., we forecasted 

end-year to be twice the base year’s (2019) numbers in 5-year (2024). 

In order to understand the growth trajectory 

of the sector better, this report divides the 

commercial UAS sector into two types of 

sUAS aircraft: consumer grade and professional grade. The consumer grade commercial UAS have a wide range of prices, below 

US $10,000 with an average unit price of approximately $2,500. The professional grade, 

on the other hand, is typically priced above 

US $10,000 with an average unit price assumed to be around $25,000.19 For both consumer grade and professional grade UAS, 

the average price is falling over time, particularly over the last few years. Currently, the 

consumer grade dominates the commercial 

19 Because of this wide range in prices between 

types of sUAS in commercial activities, start-up 

costs for a business may vary between $2,500 

and $25,000. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

52

UAS sector with a market share approaching 

92%. However, as the sector matures and 

the industry begins to consolidate, the share 

of consumer grade commercial UAS is likely 

to decline though it will still be dominant. By 

2025, FAA projects this sub-sector will have 

approximately 87% of the overall commercial 

sUAS sector. 

Starting from a lower base of approximately 

40,000 aircraft in 2020, the professional

grade commercial sUAS sub-sector stands 

to expand rapidly over time reaching 105,000 

in 2025, especially as newer and more sophisticated uses are identified, designed, 

and operationally planned and flown. If, for 

example, professional grade sUAS meet criteria of operations, safety, regulations, and 

satisfy economics and business principles 

and enter into the logistics chain via small 

package delivery, the growth in this sector 

will likely be phenomenal. On the other hand, 

starting from a base of 448,000 in 2020, consumer grade sUAS is likely to grow over 

730,000 by 2025. These growth trajectories 

could be even further enhanced by expanding operations in controlled airspaces, e.g., 

the Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability (LAANC) system20, which began authorization in May, 2017. LAANC is 

designed to facilitate sUAS use of controlled 

airspace in the NAS. While most of the nearterm growth in commercial sUAS will continue to come from consumer-grade units 

(over 90%), the FAA anticipates a significant 

part will come from professional-grade sUAS 

as well. 

 20 Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/] or LAANC automated the application/approval process for airspace authorizations. Requests submitted via 

FAA approved UAS Service Suppliers (USS) are 

checked against airspace data in the FAA UAS 

Unlike its recreational sUAS counterpart, it is 

extremely difficult to put a floor on the growth 

of the commercial sUAS sector due to its 

composition (i.e., consumer vs. professional 

grades) and the varying business opportunities and growth paths. As commercial sUAS 

become operationally more efficient and 

safe, battery life expands, and regulatory 

constraints are gradually relaxed (e.g., recent final rule involving operations over people; and Remote ID), new business models 

will begin to develop, thus enhancing robust 

supply-side responses. These responses, in 

turn, will pull demand forces (e.g., consumer 

responses to receiving commercial packages; routine blood delivery to hospitals, 

search-and-rescue operations, just to name 

a few) that are somewhat latent and in the 

experimental stages at present. Unlike a developed sector such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to put a marker on 

“intrinsic demand” (or core demand) primarily 

driven by economic and demographic factors 

underlying this sector. Nevertheless, in this 

year’s forecast the FAA makes a provisional 

attempt to provide a “low” side for now, essentially capturing the intrinsic demand. In 

addition, we provide the likely or base scenario together with the enormous potential 

embodied in the “high” scenarios, representing cumulative annual growth rates of 11% 

and 19%, respectively. Average annual 

growth rate corresponding to the low scenario, on the other hand, is around 5%. 

Data Exchange such as temporary flight restrictions (TFRs), Notice to Airmen (NOTAMS), 

and the UAS Facility Maps (UASFM). Approved 

requests thus provide the FAA/ATO visibility into 

where and when planned drone operations will 

take place. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

53

Commercial sUAS are currently used for numerous purposes. As the sector grows, the 

FAA anticipates there will be many more 

uses for, and much more use of, commercial 

sUAS as is increasingly evident, for example, 

from the successful implementation of the 

UAS Integration Pilot Program (IPP) [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/integration_pilot_program/ for more 

details]. 

One way of identifying early trends in commercial sUAS use is to analyze the waiver 

applications granted to sUAS operators. 

Both the magnitude and relative composition 

of waiver types may indicate the direction of 

the commercial sUAS sector as a whole. A 

breakdown of the waiver requests granted in 

December, 2020 is shown in the chart below:

Beyond the daytime operation that is presently allowed under existing Part 107 rules, 

expanding applications further requires waivers, to a large extent, for night operations as 

distinct from daylight operations (around 9 in 

10 approved waivers), and operations over 

people (around 1 in 20 approved waivers). 

As noted earlier, approved rules will now allow night operations and some operations 

over people as part of routine operations no 

longer requiring waivers. There are also 

BVLOS waiver requests (around 13% of total 

requests) and limitations on altitude (around 

9% of total requests), for which waiver approvals are given at rates of 2.8% and 2.9%, 

respectively. Many of these waivers are combined, and thus total waiver approvals (i.e., 

full + partial) granted (over 3,890 by December, 2020) exceed 100%. 

The Agency issues these waivers to facilitate 

business activities by sUAS while preparing 

for the next round of regulations that will enable routine, more complex drone opera0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Submitted Withdrawn Disapproved Pending Approved

DroneZone Top 5 Requested Provisions 

(as of end of December 2020)

Night Operations Operations over People

BVLOS Operations Operational Limitation: Altitude

Operations from a Moving Vehicle
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

54

tions. Now that night operations and operations over people have been finalized21 [see 

https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/OOP_Final%20Rule.pdf] amending 

Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations 

Part 107 (14 CFR Part 107) by permitting the 

routine operation of sUAS at night22 or over 

people under certain conditions23, the 

Agency is turning its focus on long-term solutions that will eventually enable routine 

BVLOS fights without waivers. Analysis of 

the waiver applications allows us to understand industry trends, one of many metrics 

essential for understanding and projecting 

the trajectory, course corrections, and 

growth trends of the sector. 

On the airspace authorizations and waivers, 

almost 50% of requests were approved for 

controlled airspace at the end of December, 

2020. While over half were for class D airspace (i.e., smaller airports with control towers), other classes were also requested and 

regularly flown.

Finally, LAANC has been routinely providing 

auto-approval since its inception in May, 

2017, and now covers 726 airports. It has 

 21 The rule has been sent to the Office of the Federal Register and will become effective 60 days 

after the publication date in the Federal Register. 

Publication was expected in January 2021 but effective dates were delayed [See: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/03/10/2021-

04882/remote-identification-of-unmanned-aircraft-delayandhttps://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/03/10/2021-04881/operation-of-small-unmanned-aircraftsystemsover-people-delay-withdrawal-correction.

provided 289,749 auto-approvals for airspace access requests from Part 107 users 

22 See § 107.29. An operation at night was defined as an operation conducted between the end 

of evening civil twilight and the beginning of morning civil twilight, as published in the Air Almanac, 

converted to local time (ibid). 

23 See § 107.39. An operation over people was 

established as one in which a small unmanned 

aircraft passes over any part of any person who 

is not directly participating in the operation and 

who is not located under a covered structure or 

inside a stationary vehicle.

Class B

20,584 

Class C

22,662 

Class D

69,293 

Class E

14,261 

Total Airspace 

Waiver/Authorizations 

Requests

Awaiting 

Decision

1,025 

Canceled / 

Denied

54,983 Approved

75,426 

Total Airspace 

Waiver/Authorizations 

Processed
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

55

and 141,123 requests from recreational operators as defined by 49 U.S.C. §4480924. 

Approvals thus total over 430,000 (see below); over 200,000 more since this time last 

year, while sending almost 58,000 requests 

for further coordination. LAANC authorizations are facilitated by the use of UAS facility 

maps (UASFM) 

[https://faa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvi

ewer/index.html?id=9c2e4406710048e19806ebf6a

06754ad] that provide maximum allowed altitudes around airports where the FAA may 

authorize Part 107 UAS operations without 

additional safety analysis. The UAS facility 

maps are used to inform requests for Part 

107 airspace authorizations and waivers in 

controlled airspace. 

Status of Survey 

The FAA is expected to conduct a nationwide 

survey of UAS operators in the summer of 

2021, titled Survey of UAS Operators. The 

survey would ask commercial, recreational, 

and safety-agency operators in the United 

States about flight behavior, fleet characteristics, and commercial activities. To achieve 

this goal, all UAS operators who have registered with the FAA and have a valid email address will be invited to participate in the sur-

 24 Strictly for recreational uses [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/new_changes_recreational_uas/media/44809_authorization.pdf]. 

vey. The responses to the survey are intended to help the FAA make more informed 

decisions regarding UAS policy, investment 

in UAS infrastructure, and public safety in local communities 

In general, the survey will ask all operators 

about flight behavior and their sUAS fleet. 

Questions about flight behavior include how 

often they fly their sUAS, the duration of each 

flight, how high they fly, and which days of 

44809 AutoApproved

141,123 

Further 

Coordination

57,892 

107 AutoApproved

289,749 

LAANC Airspace Requests

Total: 488,764
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

56

the week and months of the year they are the 

most active. The questions about operators’ 

sUAS fleets includes propulsion type, weight 

of aircraft, and number of aircraft. The survey 

responses will allow the FAA to develop 

models of sUAS activity in the NAS, which 

should inform both policy and investment. 

In addition to the general flight and fleet 

questions, two additional sections are included for respondents who self-identify as 

commercial or safety-agency operators. The 

commercial operator’s section asks questions about industry of operation and intentions to apply for waivers. The safety-agency 

operator’s section asks questions about intra-agency cooperation and training activities. 

The new information collect request (ICR) for 

the survey is in the final stages of approval 

from the Office of Management and Budget 

(OMB). Both the 60-day notice and comment 

(www.regulations.gov/document?D=FAA2020-0488-0001) and the 30-day notice and 

comment (www.regulations.gov/document?D=FAA-2020-0488-0003) have been 

completed. In addition, the ICR has received 

approvals from both the FAA’s Paperwork 

Reduction Act (PRA) office and the Office of 

the Secretary of Transportation (OST). The 

FAA expects OMB approval before the summer of 2021.

Once the ICR is approved, the FAA will initiate an awareness campaign for the survey. 

The awareness campaign will include emails 

to operators registered with the FAA and social media posts through FAA social media 

accounts.

In addition, a webpage with information 

about the upcoming survey will be published 

on the FAA website. 

After the survey closing, the responses to the 

survey will be compiled and appropriately 

weighted. The statistics developed from the 

survey will be published in the Aerospace 

Forecast, like in the past, the year after the 

survey has been completed. We expect to 

publish those results in the near future.

Remote Pilot Forecast

An important final metric in commercial 

sUAS is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. RPs are used primarily to facilitate 

commercial sUAS flights. As of December 

2020, approximately 206,347 RP certifications have been issued25, an increase of 

around 47,000 from the same time last year. 

Part 107 certifications require completing a 

multi-step process beginning with obtaining 

 25 In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who 

passed the initial knowledge test (or Part 107) 

an FAA tracking number via the creation of 

an Integrated Airman Certification and Rating Application (IACRA) profile prior to registering for a knowledge test. Following this initial step, scheduling and passing the initial 

aeronautical knowledge test at a Knowledge 

Testing Center is required. Provided that one 

has passed this test, the applicant is required 

to fill out FAA Form 8710-13 in IACRA. A 

confirmation email is sent when an applicant 

plus current manned pilots who took online training in lieu of the knowledge test (or Part 61).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

57

has completed the necessary TSA security 

background check. This email contains instructions for printing a copy of the temporary 

remote pilot certificate from IACRA. A permanent remote pilot certificate is sent via 

mail once all other FAA-internal processing 

is complete. A RP certificate is valid for two 

years, and certificate holders must pass a recurrent knowledge test every two years at a 

Knowledge Testing Center. It is required that 

RPs carry their certificate whenever flying a 

sUAS. 

Certifications for Part 61 operators, on the 

other hand, require that an applicant must 

hold a pilot certificate issued under 14 CFR 

Part 61, and must have completed a flight review within the previous 24 months. Since 

Part 61 airmen already have IACRA profiles 

established, they are required to complete, 

like part 107 operators, FAA Form 8710-13 

in IACRA. Upon completion of this form, 

proof of current flight review, and proof of 

online course completion, part 61 operators 

are required to meet with FAA representatives at the FAA Flight Standards District Office (FSDO), or with an FAA-designated pilot 

examiner (DPE), or an airman certification 

representative (ACR) or an FAA-certificated 

flight instructor (CFI) who issues the RP certificate to the Part 61 operator. Like their Part 

107 counterparts, certificates for Part 61 operators are valid for 2 years and require renewal. (See https://www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/become_a_drone_pilot/

for more details). 

Following the process above, the FAA classifies RPs into two categories: 

• those who do not hold any pilot certificate 

other than the Part 107, or Remote Pilot 

only; and 

• those who hold a Part 61 certificate and 

a Part 107 certificate, or Part 61 and Remote Pilot. 

The chart below provides a distribution of 

these two types of RPs who presently have 

certificates. 

29.92%

70.08%

Distribution of Remote Pilots

Remote Pilot (Part 61 and Part 107 Certificate)

Remote Pilot (Part 107 Only)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

58

Over 70% of the RPs are part 107 RPs only. 

Over 90% of those who took the exam 

passed and obtained RP certification. A cumulative density distribution of remote pilots 

by zip code in 2020 is provided in the map 

below. 

The RP forecasts presented below are 

based on three primary data sources: (a) 

trends in total RPs; (b) renewal trends; and 

(c) trends in commercial sUAS registration 

and forecasts of fleet. Given the trends in 

registration and our forecast of the commercial UAS fleet, the FAA assumes that one pilot is likely to handle 2.38 units of commercial 

sUAS aircraft, same as last year. 

Using these assumptions and combined with 

the base scenario of the commercial sUAS 

forecast, we project RPs in the graph below. 

Last year, the FAA projected RPs to be 

around 213,200 by the end of 2020. Actual 

registrations came to be 206,347 or falling 

short of 3.21% from the projection last year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

59

Given the actual numbers at the end of 2020, 

RPs are set to experience tremendous 

growth following the growth trends of the 

commercial sUAS sector. Starting from the 

base of 206,347 RPs in 2020, commercial 

activities may require almost 350,000 RPs in 

5 years, a 1.7-fold increase, providing tremendous opportunities for growth in employment associated with commercial activities of 

sUAS. Potential for RPs may enhance even 

more if larger UAS are used in commercial 

activities and advanced air mobility (AAM) 

becomes a reality in the near future. 

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS

Before we turn our attention onto areas of 

further expansion of sUAS, the chart below 

summarizes how COVID-19 may have impacted three areas of registration. During the 

prolonged shut-down (i.e., March-Dec, 2020) 

of numerous parts of the economy, we notice 

that commercial facets of sUAS, i.e., Part 

107 and RP registrations, were impacted 

negatively. 

206 

248 

280 

307 

330 

351 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Year

Remote Pilot Forecast 

(in thousands)

2.38 UAS per RPA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

60

As evident, Part 107 registrations dropped by 

over 18% during this long period of partial 

shut-down in 2020 in comparison to the year 

before. RP registrations, on the other hand, 

dropped by around 5%. Interestingly, the 

registrations of recreational users went up by 

almost 33% during this past year in comparison to the year before. While it is quite possible that these drops/increases were led by 

sectoral progression, we believe that at least 

parts of the observed drops/increase were 

caused primarily by COVID-19. As the economy slowed down considerably, use of commercial sUAS and correspondingly the use of 

RPs, may have dropped as a result. On the 

other hand, economic slowdown may have 

afforded more time to people working from 

home; consequently, leading to increased 

experiment of recreational uses of sUAS 

thus causing higher registration in this past 

year in comparison to the year before. 

Effective/Active Fleet via Renewal 

sUAS are registered for 3 years [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/register_drone/] while RP certifications are valid 

for 2 [seehttps://www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/become_a_drone_pilot/]. As 

noted earlier, rules adopted by the FAA in the 

matter of registration and marking requirements for sUAS aircraft [see FAA-2015-

7396; published on December 16, 2015] 

were vacated by the United States Court of 

Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in 

Taylor v. Huerta [No. 15-1495; decided on 

May 19, 2017]. However, Section 1092(d) of 

the NDAA for Fiscal Year 2018 (Pub. L. 115-

91), signed by the President on December 

12, 2017, overruled the decision in Taylor v. 

Huerta and reestablished FAA’s authority 

over registration. The FAA elected to extend 

the registration period, for all drones registered prior to December 12, 2017, for three 

years. Thus, December 12, 2020 marked the 

first effective renewal date for both recreational and Part 107 registrations. As a result 

of this sequence of events, approximately 

800,000 sUAS registrations were due for renewal in December 2020.

32.69%

-18.34%

-5.26%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

Trends in Registrations: 

March 2nd - December 28th (2020 versus 2019)

Recreational Registrations Part 107 Registrations Remote Pilot Registrations
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

61

The beginning of the registration renewal affords the FAA an opportunity to review the 

data, i.e., duplicates and unnecessary registrations removed, and make the registration 

database cleaner and more compact. Following this process, a preliminary examination of the data reveals that renewal of registrations appears to be slower perhaps due to 

inertia, an informational awareness gap, confusion about registration duration, and/or 

lack of operational opportunities. This is particularly true for recreational registrations. 

For example, a comparison of the latest period for which preliminary data is available 

against the earlier periods, i.e., December 

13-February 10 for 2019-2021, show renewal and data clean-up led to a significant 

decline, over 60% (or over 721,000) in cumulative recreational registration trends. 

This decline occurs due to renewal/data and 

validation starting on December 13, 2020. 

Average daily registrations, taking into account renewal, for the latest period shows a 

decline of 11,934 compared to over 300 daily 

registrations in the two years prior during the 

same periods (see the figure above). Further 

examination will occur during the upcoming 

year. 

Part 107 renewal trends, on the other hand, 

leading to restating of registrations show 

similar trends but declines are much less prolific compared to its recreational counterpart. 

974,788

1,195,722

474,624

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Recreational: Pre- and Post-Renewal Cumulative Registration 

(Counts / Day)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

62

Average daily registrations taking into account renewals dropped to -248, as opposed 

to earlier positive numbers, during the same 

periods of Dec. 13 – February 10 in different 

years since the registry began. Renewal/data clean up beginning on December 

13, 2020 led to a reduction of over 14,600 

from the cumulative registration counts by 

February 10 this year. We do not observe 

similar trends in RP registrations following 

renewals.

Given the uncertainty underlying these numbers (e.g., effect of undecideds/late decision 

by registrants to renew, role of registrations 

initiated by third -party services), this opens 

up a great need for communications about 

the registration renewal requirement, which 

the Agency already initiated. Furthermore, 

FAA’s decision to defer the registration renewal process for 800,000 registrants, collected over approximately a year and a half 

period, created a unique data anomaly with 

regard to the renewal process. This data 

anomaly may be further skewed by confusion about registration requirements and 

practices of third-party registration services 

that occurred during this period. Now that 

registration is expiring on a routine basis, 

FAA will begin to monitor this data point carefully.

While removal of registrations that have 

been entered in error may reduce the total 

number of registrations, it is likely that renewals by late deciders may significantly alter cumulative numbers and upward. As noted earlier, the Agency uses registration as the primary basis for forecasting. Upon careful review of these data, which appear to be transitory, we decided not to use these changes 

in data to drive forecast for this year. We are 

examining these numbers carefully and will 

report the renewal-driven registrations and 

forecasts based on the stabilized numbers in 

the near future. For this year, we continue reporting registration trends prior to Dec. 12 

and extrapolated data for forecasts (see fn. 

#s 2 and 5). Provided that this slow pace is 

indeed due to inertia, and not due to changed 

opportunities or lost interests, renewal trends 

may have significant impact on effective fleet 

283,386

392,919

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Part 107: Pre- and Post-Renewal Cumulative Registration 

(Counts / Day)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

63

in the NAS and thus remaining integration 

challenges and opportunities.

 

IPP to BEYOND

One such integration challenge was addressed under the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration Pilot Program (IPP). 

Beginning in 2017, the IPP brought state, local, and tribal governments together with private sector entities, such as UAS operators 

or manufacturers, to test and evaluate the integration of civil and public drone operations 

into the NAS. The IPP program [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/integration_pilot_program/ for more 

details] concluded on October 25, 2020. The 

FAA launched a new program called BEYOND to continue working on specific challenges of UAS integration:

• Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) operations that are repeatable, scalable 

and economically viable with specific emphasis on infrastructure inspection, public operations and small package delivery;

• Leveraging industry operations to better 

analyze and quantify the societal and 

economic benefits of UAS operations; 

and 

• Focusing on community engagement efforts to collect, analyze and address 

community concerns. 

BEYOND started on October 26, 2020 to 

continue the partnerships with eight of the 

original nine IPP participants. [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/beyond/ for more details]. 

sUAS use by Public Entities

Public safety agencies’ use of sUAS has 

grown over time and will continue to grow. 

Public safety agencies’ roles in the United 

States include law enforcement, firefighting 

and response to natural disasters, and emergency medical services. Additionally, these 

agencies are at different levels of government: federal, state, and local including tribal 

and territorial. Examples include the Department of the Interior monitoring wildlife with 

sUAS; California Fire using sUAS for firefighting operations; and local police departments using them for search and rescue in 

missing person instances. Figure below 

shows the historical growth of sUAS. By midyear 2020, 2,399 public safety agencies had 

an active fleet size of 10,156 based on FAA 

Part 107 registrations [see Figure below]. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

64

 

Future growth of public safety agencies’ 

sUAS fleet size will continue to be strong. Table below outlines the different growth paths 

for the next five years. The expectation is that 

the sUAS fleet size will be over 30,000 by 

2025. This reflects a compound annual 

growth rate of 24 percent. The strength of 

growth will depend on multiple factors. One 

factor is changes in FAA regulations for 

sUAS, such as allowing tactical beyond visual line of sight. Another factor is budgetary 

constraints at local and state levels of government. These factors have the possibility 

of increasing or decreasing the growth of 

sUAS adoption from public safety agencies 

as shown in Table below with High and Low 

forecasts.

Fiscal Year Low Middle High

Forecast

2021 11,733 14,127 15,604

2022 13,022 18,098 21,313

2023 14,112 22,069 27,497

2024 15,056 26,040 34,106

2025 15,888 30,011 41,102

CAGR* 9% 24% 32%

*Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: Based on extrapolation of registrations of Part 107 UAS by public 

safety agencies 2018-2020.

 

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2016-1 2016-2 2017-1 2017-2 2018-1 2018-2 2019-1 2019-2 2020-1

Calendar Year

Total UAS Registered by Public Safety Agencies

County Municipal State Federal / Tribal
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

65

Large UAS

UAS weighing 55 pounds or greater cannot 

be operated under part 107 or as recreational unmanned aircraft. These larger UAS 

(lUAS) must be registered using the existing 

aircraft registration process and operated 

with an exemption under the Special Authority for Certain Unmanned Systems (49 

U.S.C. §44807) or a public aircraft operator 

(PAO) certification. At present, many of 

these aircraft fly within the NAS by federal 

agencies including the Departments of Defense (DoD), Homeland Security (DHS), Interior (DOI), Energy (DOE), and Agriculture, 

as well as NASA, state governments, local 

governments, and academia. However, commercial operators are on the rise, many of 

which are operating agricultural lUAS. In order to calculate active lUAS in the NAS, we 

employ multitudes of data from various 

sources: the COA Online system and its successor CAPS or COA Application Processing System; MITRE’s Threaded 

Track infusing data from different sources, 

FAA’s Performance Data Analysis, FAA’s 

Aircraft Registry and Reporting Systems or 

PDARS; and Notices to Airmen (NOTAM).

Combining these data sources, the FAA estimates that 195 lUAS are operating in 2020, 

with the bulk of these aircraft operated by the 

DoD and other government agencies. However, these estimates are likely the lower 

bound since a growing number of agricultural 

lUAS are operating in close proximity to the 

ground (i.e., likely below 400ft AGL) and are 

not captured by this data. These agricultural 

lUAS are likely to grow rapidly over the next 

5 years but will have very little effect on air 

traffic in the NAS given their locations away 

from busy manned air traffic and low altitude. 

lUAS operated by military and civilian agencies in the NAS are expected to grow at a 

steady pace over the next 5 years. DoD is 

expected to remain the largest operator of 

lUAS in airspace above 400ft AGL over the 

forecast. 

However, commercial operators are expected to overtake government operators as 

a whole over the next 5 years. As the industry 

for agricultural UAS matures, farmers are expected to switch from manual or manned aircraft spraying to lUAS for their specialty 

crops. This switch should drastically increase 

the number of lUAS operated for commercial 

reasons, but unlike the lUAS operated by the 

government, these lUAS are operating well 

below 400ft AGL. 

In 2020, 14 exemptions were granted by the 

FAA for commercial UAS with weights above 

55lbs while 21 exemptions expired. There 

are approximately 30 active exemptions to 

operate a lUAS. One-third of the active exemptions are for agricultural uses, mostly 

with UAS weighting above 55lbs. The exemptions for agricultural spraying is likely to 

increase as the technology and the industry 

matures. 

The unmanned aircraft over 55lbs registered 

in the public aircraft registry has increased by 

63 percent, from 322 at the end of 2019 to 

510 at the end of 2020. Three hundred and 

nine lUAS registered or renewed in 2020, up 

21 percent from 2019. However, the delisted 

and expired registration almost tripled in 

2020 from 47 deregistration in 2019 to 121 

deregistration in 2020. Around 10 percent of 

the lUAS registered are directly connected to 

agricultural uses. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

66

Although 510 lUAS are registered in the public aircraft registry, only a portion of these aircraft are currently operating commercially. A 

sizable portion of the lUAS operators are not 

operating their aircraft in the NAS due to 

safety or regulatory concerns or only operating close to the ground. As such, the number 

of registered lUAS which are likely to come 

in contact with ATC is small. The forecast for 

the lUAS is only for aircraft operating in airspace where contact with other lUAS or 

manned aircraft is possible. 

Year Active L-UAS Number of Flights

Historical

2016 172 6,785

2017 159 7,066

2018 172 7,223

2019 206 6,914

2020 255 7,144

Forecast

2021 284 7,171

2022 304 8,426

2023 318 9,696

2024 329 11,038

2025 339 12,500

Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Forecast - 5 Years

Combining the baseline from military and civilian agencies and projections of commercial exemptions from the FAA, lUAS are estimated to increase from 209 in 2019 to 255 in 

2020, and are expected to increase by 29 aircraft in 2021 due to an acceleration in commercial applications. As commercial and advanced military lUAS are introduced over the 

next half decade, lUAS are projected to increase to 339 aircraft by 2025. The flattening 

of the forecast from previous years is partially 

due to the sunset of UAS exemptions under 

49 U.S.C. §44807 in September of 2023, 

which is expected to reduce the fleet of lUAS 

after 2024, and partially due to the economic 

impact from Covid-19, which has drastically 

reduced the utilization of these aircraft. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

67

Despite 49 additional aircraft detected operating in the NAS in 2020, only 230 additional 

flights were observed. This suggests that the 

utilization of each lUAS had decreased since 

the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic recession. Even though the lUAS fleet is expected to increase in 2021, lower utilization 

of each aircraft is expected to keep flights relatively unchanged. As economic activity recovers and planned lUAS accusation are fulfilled, flights are expected to grow rapidly, despite fewer new lUAS. As such, the number 

of lUAS flights are expected to increase from 

the estimated 7,144 in 2020 to 12,500 by 

2025, even as the growth of the lUAS fleet 

stabilizes. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Aircraft

Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Operating in the NAS

Estimated Forecast
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

68

Advanced Air Mobility 

In September 2017, NASA launched a market study for a segment crossing over some 

functions of UAS discussed above. This segment of autonomous vehicles broadly called 

Advanced Air Mobility26 (or AAM) is defined 

as “a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation, inclusive of 

small package delivery and other urban UAS 

services, which supports a mix of 

onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations” (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-embracesurban-air-mobility). AAM technology presents considerable opportunities for eco-

 26 The community is in the process of deciding on 

a nomenclature. Only recently, the community-atlarge has moved onto coining earlier-used urban 

air mobility (UAM) as advanced air mobility (AAM) 

to broaden its operational scope, technical characteristics, economic opportunities and regulatory framework. Under this broad characterization, UAM is considered a subset of AAM. 

nomic growth over the coming decades. Markets for AAM services, such as delivering 

packages by drone or larger unmanned 

cargo or unmanned passenger shuttles or air 

taxis, have huge potentials both in the United 

States and globally. For example, package 

or larger cargo delivery is the AAM service 

that is most likely to experience economic 

growth in the next decade. By 2030, for example, package delivery is likely to be profitable at a price point of $4.20 per delivery with 

a fleet of 40,000 vehicles completing 500 million deliveries per year.27

27 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc.) 

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Flights

Flights of Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Operating in the NAS

Estimated Forecast
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

69

Passenger services, on the other hand, 

promise larger markets for AAM services, but 

safety challenges and evolving technology 

leading to market uncertainties may slow the 

pace of AAM’s penetration into this segment 

of the market. It appears that initial AAM operations will be more likely helicopter operations with pilots onboard leading to some 

form of automation as vehicles mature. Due 

to perceived uncertainties, market estimation 

for the overall sector has been quite wide. 

The total available market for passenger services is estimated to be $500 billion in the 

United States, but AAM is unlikely to garner 

more than $2.5 billion of this market in the 

near term, as one study estimates.28 On the 

upside of the estimation, a recent study conducted by Deloitte and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) estimates29 the AAM 

market in the US to reach approximately 

US$115 billion by 2035, equivalent to 30% of 

the present US commercial air transportation 

market. Of that total, US$57 billion is expected to originate in passenger air mobility 

while an equivalent amount is expected to 

come from the cargo market.

Market dynamics underlying AAM are complex, dynamic and numerous. Although 

COVID-19 has led to an increased adoption 

of virtual work versus commuting and business travel30, persistence of this trend in the 

long-run is mired in uncertainty. Socioeconomic changes such as population shifts 

from urban to suburban or rural areas (i.e., 

de-urbanization) could also affect the various 

AAM use cases differently. AAM services, 

i.e., both cargo and passenger, may appear 

to be unprofitable in the near future, like 

many other services in the beginning, the 

AAM passenger industry is likely to expand 

due to an inflow of venture capital and experimental services exploring market opportunities. 

Airport shuttles and other fixed-route passenger services are the AAM passenger services most likely to gain economic traction in 

the coming decade. Optimistic reports project the AAM passenger industry to have 

23,000 aircraft with 740 million enplanements per year at a price of around $30 per 

trip by 2030.31 However, several other stud-

 28 UAM Market Study – Technical Out Brief, Oct. 

2018, Booz-Allen-Hamilton and NASA. (See 

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20190001472.pdf.

) 

29https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/aerospace-defense/advanced-air mobility.html?id=us:2el:3pr:4diER6839:5awa:012621:

&pkid=1007244

30 Road congestion and associated opportunity 

cost in commuting around metros provided the 

most powerful boon for economic and financial 

justifications for AAM passenger services. However, changed working pattern and home location 

ies have reported more conservative estimates, arguing the market penetration is 

likely limited to a handful of major metropolitan areas where geography and economic 

conditions are conducive to AAM market development. As such, estimates by KMPG 

predict 60.4 million enplanements by 2030 

and a much smaller industry size.32 Similarly,

Roland Berger estimates a fleet of only 

12,000 passenger UAS by 2030.33 However, 

due to COVID19 puts a damper on that earlier 

economic trade-off, at least in the near-term. 

31 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc.) 

32 Getting Mobility Off the Ground, 2019, KPMG 

(see https://institutes.kpmg.us/manufacturing-institute/articles/2019/getting-mobility-off-theground.html). 

33 Urban Air Mobility: The rise of a new mode of 

transportation, Nov. 2018, Roland Berger (see 

https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Publications/Passenger-drones-ready-for-take-off.html). 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

70

given the current safety and technology challenges, even these projections may likely to 

be optimistic. 

Given the enormous economic potentials underlying the AAM sector, coordination led by 

the Agency with close collaborations of 

NASA and the industry, numerous activities 

are presently taking place. This is leading to 

flight testing of AAM vehicles (e.g., 

https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/features/nasa-begins-air-mobilitycampaign.html), regulatory coordination for 

safety, traffic management and on issues related to international harmonization with 

other agencies, e.g., European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) leading to type 

certifications 

(e.g.,https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/certification/). In order to accelerate 

this process, the Agency created an internal 

AAM Executive Council [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/urban_air_mobility/] and is actively 

working with the internal and external stakeholders to understand the nature, scope and 

likely evolutions of AAM. The FAA also issued a concept of operations (CONOPS) in 

June last year [see 

https://nari.arc.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/UAM_ConOps_v1.0.pdf] and likely to publish a strategic implementation framework in the near future. NASA also launched a national campaign (NC) to promote public confidence and 

accelerate the realization of emerging aviation markets for passenger and cargo transportation in urban, suburban, rural, and regional environments [see 

 34https://www.aviationtoday.com/2021/02/09/joby-agrees-evtol-certification-requirements-faa/

35https://lilium.com/newsroom-detail/lilium-partners-with-tavistock-and-orlando

https://www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/aam/description/ for more details]. Furthermore, 

NASA issued AAM CONOPS corresponding 

to slightly advanced maturity levels (i.e., Urban Air Mobility Maturity Level 4) recently 

[see https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20205011091 for more details]. 

These pro-active steps are positioning the 

AAM industry positively towards realizing 

market opportunities. In December 2020, for 

example, Joby Aviation received the first 

ever airworthiness approval by the US Air 

Force (USAF) for an eVTOL aircraft under 

Agility Prime and recently reached an agreement with the FAA to certify its aircraft using 

the FAA’s Part 23 requirements along with 

special conditions for the eVTOL aircraft.34

Joby Aviation plans to launch air taxi services 

in the US by 2023. Lilium GMBH, a German 

company, is developing an eVTOL transport 

network centered around Lake Nona, Orlando, Florida. It has partnered with the City 

of Orlando and a real estate development 

company to develop a vertiport hub in Lake 

Nona for regional, inter-city air mobility services by 2025 with travel distances of up to 

186 miles in 60 minutes with Lilium Jet aircraft under development.35

The trend is somewhat similar at the international level as well. For example, EHang, a 

Chinese manufacturer of autonomous aerial 

vehicles (AAVs), established a strategic partnership with UAM pilot cities in Spain, Austria, and China in 2020.36 It also conducted 

demonstration flights in South Korea with its 

two-passenger autonomous aerial vehicle, 

the EHang 216. German AAM companies, 

36 https://www.ehang.com/news/617.html
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

71

Lilium and Volocopter, are also working to 

launch passenger air transport services in 

the next few years. Volocopter completed 

demonstration air taxi flights in Singapore in 

2019 and began to sell tickets for commercial 

service, expected to start in Singapore by 

2023.37 Volocopter has also announced 

plans to introduce air taxi services in the US.

AAM services are likely to face stiff competition from technological advances in industries with close substitutes, such as ground 

transportation (i.e., emerging automated solutions on increasingly electric-powered vehicles). Furthermore, economic and financial 

trade-offs underlying emergence of AAM 

may have changed following COVID-19, 

changed travel patterns and perhaps longterm living arrangements. Finally, the high 

costs of urban infrastructure, community acceptance, associated noise and environmental issues pose considerable challenges for 

AAM type certification, wide production certification, and eventual community acceptance leading to greater adoption. Future 

AAM operators must also prepare to comply 

with new operating requirements and other 

regulations yet to come.

Despite these challenges, regional governments are aligning themselves with the manufacturers and likely operators. For example, 

the city of Los Angeles announced the creation of its Urban Air Mobility Partnership in 

December 2020. It is a public-private partnership that will evaluate barriers and solutions to launching air taxi services in Los Angeles by 2023.38 Other entities including the 

Canadian AAM Consortium (CAAM) have 

also studied the impacts of AAM on regional 

economies.39

As the sector grows and new initiatives are 

undertaken, the Agency, together with numerous stakeholders, is keeping a keen eye 

on understanding the overall trends in AAM. 

As more information becomes available, the 

FAA will likely provide emerging trends and 

forecast ds-in the near future.

 37https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/first-electric-air-taxis-set-to-flyin-singapore-by-2023

38https://www.lamayor.org/mayor-garcetti-announces-first-nation-urban-air-mobility-partnership

39http://www.pnwer.org/uploads/2/3/2/9/23295822/economic_impact_assesment_-_caam_-_v1.0.pdf
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

72

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, 

at least in the near-term, by the pace of recovery from the impacts to the U.S. and 

global economies and the aviation industry 

resulting from the novel coronavirus (COVID19). Shifting international dynamics and impacts resulting from the U.S. administration’s 

economic policies could drive further 

changes. Also, as numerous incidents in 

the past few years remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest world-wide risks 

to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident 

aimed at aviation could have an immediate 

and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be greater than its 

impact on overall economic activity.

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus 

(COVID-19) that began in early 2020 resulted in the largest decline in aviation activity since the jet era began in the late 1950’s. 

Although the FAA forecast is a long-term 

trend forecast, there is great uncertainty 

about the path of aviation’s recovery from the 

2020 downturn. This uncertainty arises from 

a variety of factors including the speed at 

which infection rates are brought down to a 

minimal level, the willingness of consumers 

to resume air travel as infection rates are reduced, the pace at which vaccinations of the 

population take place, the success of the 

strategies U.S. and foreign carriers are employing to recover from the downturn in demand, the stability of consumer attitudes and 

behaviors towards aviation in a post-COVID 

environment, as well as the breadth and 

depth of the economic recession and the 

speed and nature of the economic recovery, 

all of which apply both domestically and globally.

Although oil prices moved lower in 2020 from 

the previous year, recent volatility reminds us 

there is still considerable uncertainty as to 

the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s 

baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s November 

2020 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during August 2020) calls for oil 

prices to decrease to $36 per barrel in 2021 

and rise gradually thereafter. By 2030, oil 

prices are projected to reach $75 per barrel 

and reach $94 per barrel by the end of the 

forecast period in 2041. Some forecasters 

are calling for a more gradual rebound in the 

price of oil. In October 2020, the World Bank 

released its latest commodity price forecast. 

The forecast calls for oil prices to rise gradually from a low of $41 per barrel in 2020 to 

just under $57 per barrel by 2025. After 2025

prices continue to rise and reach $70 per barrel by 2030. However, there are other oil 

price forecasts that are considerably more 

aggressive than the FAA base forecast. The 

latest Energy Information Administration 

(EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in 

January 2021, sees oil prices rising approximately 5.9% per year between 2020 and 

2041. By 2041, the spot price of oil ranges 

from $133 per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) to $138 per barrel (Brent), considerably 

above the FAA base forecast of $94. Over 

the long run, lower oil prices give consumers 

an impetus for additional spending, including 

air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil prices turn out 

to be higher than the FAA forecast, we would 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

73

expect lower spending on air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel to airlines and 

reduced industry profitability.

The baseline forecast incorporates additional 

infrastructure spending in 2021 and beyond. 

However, there is considerable uncertainty 

as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of 

these programs that ultimately determines 

the impact on the future growth of the U.S. 

economy. In addition, how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over 

the next several years continues to evolve. 

Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along 

with increased financial stability could occur 

but there is also the possibility of an outcome 

that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that the 

global economic recession that occurred in 

2020 will be short lived with recovery beginning in the end of 2020. By the end of 2021 

global GDP will be back to pre-COVID (2019) 

levels led by China and the United States. 

Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes 

that China and India will be growth engines 

for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from heavy reliance on manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its 

economy more competitive. In the United 

States, economic growth will rebound 

strongly in 2021 as the impacts from the latest round of COVID-19 stimulus flow through 

the economy. The combination of direct payments, extension of unemployment benefits, 

and direct federal spending will provide 

money into consumer’s wallets boosting their 

spending. However later on in the decade, 

the forecast assumes some measure of fiscal restraint will be implemented as the impact of the 2017 tax cuts and the huge increase in federal spending to combat the 

economic impacts of COVID-19 have 

pushed the government debt as percent of 

GDP to levels that were last seen at the end 

of World War 2. In Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union economic 

growth over the next few years will be well 

above rates seen over the past decade as 

these regions recover from the COVID-19 recession. However, over the forecast horizon, 

demand growth will remain slow in these regions as they continue to be constrained by 

structural economic problems (high debt, 

slow population growth, weak public finances, for example) and political instability. 

In most of the major advanced economies, 

governments need to shore up their finances 

and many are concerned that policy makers 

will not take the necessary actions. There 

exists a non-trivial possibility that authorities 

will either act prematurely or be excessively 

timid and late in taking necessary steps to 

maintain a healthy global economy. The current forecasts call for strong passenger 

growth for travel between the United States 

and other world regions, especially over the 

next five years. Further slowing of worldwide 

economic activity could seriously inhibit the 

growth in global passenger demand.

Although U.S. airline finances have been 

decimated as a result of COVID-19 and the 

fall in demand, the outlook for further consolidation either through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or bankruptcy appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 2020 data, the top 

6 (American, Delta, United, Southwest,

Alaska and JetBlue) accounted for almost

81% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and 

traffic. For the large network carriers, the 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

74

steps they have taken to increase their liquidity have reduced the risk of bankruptcy in the 

next few years. However, if the demand recovery is slower than expected, the increase 

in debt that these carriers are servicing may 

be a burden and increase the possibility of a 

bankruptcy or liquidation. Low cost carriers

and ultra-low cost carriers also took steps to 

increase their liquidity (stock issuances, debt 

financing) that when combined with the size 

of any merger transaction has increased the 

amount of risk associated with a merger 

making further merger activity unlikely.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleets of regional carriers. 

While the recovery in air travel demand from 

the COVID downturn is projected to be robust, we are not projecting a uniform recovery across all segments. As network carriers 

continue to adjust the size and breadth of 

their networks in anticipation of the postCOVID environment, they are continuing to 

move forward with plans to significantly reduce the numbers of small regional jets they 

will need. Prior to the COVID downturn in 

2020, strong air travel demand has not ensured financial stability for regional carriers, 

as the bankruptcy filings of Republic Airways 

in 2016, Great Lakes Airlines in 2018 and 

Trans States Airlines in 2020 have shown. 

Financially strong and well positioned regional carriers may see increased opportunities for regional flying as a result of the network carrier actions, but the overall impact 

will most likely reduce opportunities for many 

regional carriers, increasing financial pressures on these carriers, and may lead to further consolidation in the regional airline industry.

The general aviation sector did suffer a 

downturn in activity in 2020 due to the impacts of COVID-19, but the magnitude of the 

decline was much less than the decline in 

commercial aviation. However, within the 

sector, the impacts of the COVID-19 downturn have varied widely, as some segments 

recovered quickly and by the end of 2020 

were already exceeding pre-COVID activity 

levels. Corporate and business aviation on 

the other hand saw activity fall significantly 

after the economy came to a near-halt in 

March 2020. We project a return to preCOVID levels of activity in the GA segment 

will be sooner than for commercial airlines. 

Once returning to pre-COVID levels of activity, future growth in business and corporate 

aviation is based largely upon the prospects 

for economic growth and corporate profits. 

Uncertainty in these leading indicators poses 

a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited 

to these factors. Other influences, such as 

potential environmental regulations and 

taxes do not seem to be as much of a concern in the short term, but over the long term, 

uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward pressure on 

the forecast. 

Overall activity at FAA and contract towers 

decreased 16.7 percent in 2020, while activity at large and medium hub airports (61 in 

total) fell 29.9 percent and 22.9 percent in 

2020. While FAA’s baseline forecast calls for 

operations at FAA and contract towers to return to pre-COVID levels of activity by 2025, 

the uneven nature of the demand recovery 

results in operations at large and medium 

hub airports growing faster than the overall 

national trend and congestion and delays 

could become critical limits to growth over 

the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both 

demand and operations are unconstrained in 

that they assume that there will be sufficient 

infrastructure to handle the projected levels 

of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

75

and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of 

both demand and operations would not be 

achieved.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of larger regional 

jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS and 

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles into 

the national airspace system will make the 

FAA’s job more challenging. This change in 

the mix of aircraft will most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the 

growth in operations over the forecast period. 

Increasing concerns about aviation's environmental impacts could potentially limit or 

delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow 

to meet national economic and mobility 

needs. Airspace modernization and airport 

expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, and water quality. Climate change is 

also of concern and could limit aviation 

growth. In Europe, concerns about climate 

change are leading to restrictions on airport 

expansion activities and proposals to limit 

short-haul domestic flights. Community concerns across the U.S. about aviation noise 

have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. 

Without effective measures to mitigate and 

abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to 

achieve aviation growth may be delayed. 

In addition to providing economic benefits, 

technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide 

benefits in terms of reduced emissions that 

impact air quality and climate change; many 

technologies that improve fuel efficiency also 

result in reduced noise. Airlines are increasing their use of sustainable aviation fuels, 

which provides benefits in terms of reduced 

impacts of aviation on climate change and air 

quality. The implementation of the Carbon 

Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach 

that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations 

around the world is used, and will help to further address the impacts of aviation on climate change. Continued advancements and 

fleetwide uptake of sustainable aviation fuels 

and new aircraft and engine technologies 

that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and 

reduced emissions are required to ensure 

that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the in-service fleet,

which in turn may depress growth.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

76

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-

year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were 

used. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from IHS Markit’s 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

August 2020 US Economy: The 30-Year Focus were utilized. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create “high” and 

“low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecasts.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios 

use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS

Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create high and 

low cases.

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth rebounds moderately in 2021 and then remains slightly 

above trend in the medium-term, supported 

primarily by consumer spending and in particular, some catch-up in services spending 

that were most impacted during 2020. The 

forecast assumes no fiscal stimulus in the 

fourth quarter of 2020 which negatively affects GDP growth in 2021. The unemployment rate retreats gradually, reaching its prepandemic rate in 2024. Oil prices remain 

moderate by historic standards and there are 

no external shocks.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic scenario is characterized by a quicker recovery 

in the near term than in the baseline but 

shows only slight improvement over the balance of the forecast. Near-term differences 

include a fiscal stimulus package which 

boosts consumer spending as well as personal savings in 2021. Accelerated COVID19 vaccinations lead to a more rapid decline 

in case counts and an earlier return of consumers to their pre-COVID spending patterns. The unemployment rate also falls 

faster than in the baseline, reaching the prepandemic rate about a year sooner. And the 

price of oil is lifted slightly above the baseline 

as stronger economic activity generates increased oil demand. 

In this scenario, real personal consumption 

expenditure (PCE) per capita growth over 

the entire forecast is similar to that in the 

baseline and unemployment averages 0.15
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

77

points lower on a fiscal year basis than the 

baseline.40

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this 

forecast, an upturn in new COVID-19 cases, 

hospitalizations, and deaths, slows the pace 

of “opening up” and results in some retrenchment in consumer spending which falls below the baseline path, removing support from 

the economic recovery. The economy slows 

with negative GDP growth in both 2020 and 

2021 and recovery rates below the baseline. 

GDP growth averages 0.8 percentage points 

lower than in the baseline over the forecast

horizon.

In addition to slower GDP growth in this scenario, productivity, the labor force and capital 

investments also grow more slowly than in 

the baseline. Personal income growth is 

pressured leading to depressed consumer 

confidence and spending, with durable 

goods consumption, particularly of housing 

and motor vehicles, impacted the most. Financial conditions are tight and the higher interest rates reflect concerns about the inflationary outlook, given the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy and accelerating inflation. Inflation is fanned by higher commodity 

prices and rising energy prices, wages, and 

import prices combine to push consumer 

price inflation above the baseline.

Oil prices rise faster than the baseline 

throughout the forecast and are $63 per barrel higher by 2041. Real PCE per capita in 

this scenario grows 0.7 percentage points 

slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 1.0 points higher 

on an annual basis than in the baseline.

 40 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts 

of enplanements.

 (5.0)

 (4.0)

 (3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

78

 290

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

 390

 400

2019 2020 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

 8.0

 9.0

 10.0

 11.0

 12.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

79

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow 

growth of energy prices and import prices 

counteracts faster growth of other consumer 

goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

rise somewhat slower than the baseline. In 

the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages 

and import prices all rise more rapidly compared to the baseline. 

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Index Value (2020 = 100)

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

80

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5.0 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2021-2041 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 4.9 and 6.3 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a slightly quicker pace, averaging 5.1 percent per year (up 5.0 percent domestically 

and 6.5 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the 

end of the forecast period in 2041, system 

passengers in the optimistic case are 1.8

percent above the baseline, totaling 1.5 billion, 26 million greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened personal income growth 

and consumer confidence combined with a 

contraction in financial asset markets, leading to higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and consumer spending. In this 

scenario, enplanements grow an average of 

3.9 percent per year (domestic up 3.6 percent and international up 5.8 percent). In the 

pessimistic case, system passengers in

2041 are 21.2 percent below the baseline 

case, totaling 1.1 billion, or 303 million fewer 

than in the baseline.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

million

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

81

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2021-2041), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 5.1 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 6.6

percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 5.6 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 5.2 and

6.8 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 4.5

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 3.8 percent a year while international traffic grows 6.2 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 4.5 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 4.0 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 6.0 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows slightly 

faster than in the baseline forecast, averaging 4.6 percent annually system-wide (4.1

and 6.2 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

billion

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

82

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 3.5 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 2.7 percent annually and international up 5.5 percent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. System load factor rises from 

69.5 percent in 2020 to 85.2 (optimistic), 85.1

(pessimistic), and 85.3 (baseline) percent in 

2041.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 68.7 percent to 86.6

percent in the baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

The international load factor is forecast to 

rise to 82.1 throughout the period in the

baseline and pessimistic scenarios and rise 

slightly to 82.2 percent in the optimistic scenario. This reflects in part the relative growth 

in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, 

Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

billion

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

83

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.8 percent annually, rising 

from 11.54 cents in 2020 to 16.95 cents in 

2041. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 11.00 cents in 2020 

to 16.15 cents in 2041. International yield 

rises from 13.33 cents in 2020 to 18.93 cents 

in 2041.

System yield rises in the optimistic case at a 

slower rate than in the baseline, up 1.2 percent annually to 14.92 cents by 2041. Domestic yield increases to 13.78 cents while 

international yield increases to 17.66 cents. 

The modest growth in yield in both cases is 

due to advancements in technology, gains in 

productivity, and relatively favorable fuel 

prices.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 2.7 percent annually, reaching 

20.14 cents by 2041 (20.17 cents domestically and 20.09 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the 

baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in 

order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

84

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2020-2041

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2020E 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2020-21 2021-26 2021-31 2021-36 2021-41

Economic AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 38,831 37,987 41,014 44,145 47,792 51,038 -2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Expenditure per Capita Baseline 38,831 39,496 43,717 49,488 55,198 60,070 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1%

(2012 $) Optimistic 38,831 39,073 44,552 49,327 54,638 59,727 0.6% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 43.2 39.1 75.5 103.0 127.2 156.7 -9.5% 14.1% 10.2% 8.2% 7.2%

Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 43.2 36.4 62.0 76.4 85.0 93.5 -15.7% 11.2% 7.7% 5.8% 4.8%

Optimistic 43.2 36.6 56.9 65.5 68.9 73.1 -15.3% 9.2% 6.0% 4.3% 3.5%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.58 2.63 3.04 3.62 4.27 5.08 2.1% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%

All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.58 2.63 2.95 3.32 3.73 4.20 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Optimistic 2.58 2.62 2.81 3.11 3.35 3.62 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 7.3 10.8 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.4 47.4% -16.3% -8.4% -6.3% -4.4%

(%) Baseline 7.3 6.0 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4 -17.2% -9.2% -4.0% -2.5% -1.6%

Optimistic 7.3 7.5 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.9% -14.9% -6.3% -4.7% -3.2%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

85

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2020-2041

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2020E 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2020-21 2021-26 2021-31 2021-36 2021-41

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 791.4 595.9 1,126.4 1,315.1 1,479.5 1,623.9 -24.7% 13.6% 8.2% 6.2% 5.1%

(BIL) Baseline 791.4 753.1 1,348.4 1,539.8 1,766.8 1,986.5 -4.8% 12.4% 7.4% 5.8% 5.0%

Optimistic 791.4 760.6 1,414.4 1,571.2 1,795.0 2,036.6 -3.9% 13.2% 7.5% 5.9% 5.0%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 550.3 405.5 954.5 1,114.9 1,256.5 1,381.5 -26.3% 18.7% 10.6% 7.8% 6.3%

(BIL) Baseline 550.3 513.2 1,143.8 1,307.6 1,503.5 1,693.6 -6.8% 17.4% 9.8% 7.4% 6.2%

Optimistic 550.3 518.1 1,200.2 1,334.2 1,527.2 1,735.8 -5.9% 18.3% 9.9% 7.5% 6.2%

Enplanements Pessimistic 511.0 380.9 827.2 941.1 1,046.8 1,133.5 -25.5% 16.8% 9.5% 7.0% 5.6%

(MIL) Baseline 511.0 487.5 1,009.3 1,135.1 1,289.8 1,432.6 -4.6% 15.7% 8.8% 6.7% 5.5%

Optimistic 511.0 490.6 1,065.5 1,159.8 1,307.6 1,463.5 -4.0% 16.8% 9.0% 6.8% 5.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,158.7 3,744.7 6,960.1 7,952.3 8,807.3 9,504.0 -27.4% 13.2% 7.8% 5.9% 4.8%

(MIL) Baseline 5,158.7 4,761.9 8,407.4 9,442.2 10,674.7 11,806.6 -7.7% 12.0% 7.1% 5.5% 4.6%

Optimistic 5,158.7 4,801.0 8,846.1 9,640.3 10,835.4 12,086.6 -6.9% 13.0% 7.2% 5.6% 4.7%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 6,443.7 4,609.5 8,010.5 8,895.2 9,635.6 10,142.9 -28.5% 11.7% 6.8% 5.0% 4.0%

(000s) Baseline 6,443.7 5,902.3 9,768.9 10,735.5 11,869.8 12,802.8 -8.4% 10.6% 6.2% 4.8% 3.9%

Optimistic 6,443.7 5,944.6 10,329.8 10,963.2 12,015.3 13,057.7 -7.7% 11.7% 6.3% 4.8% 4.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 11.54 10.33 13.21 15.11 17.38 20.12 -10.5% 5.0% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%

(cents) Baseline 11.54 10.21 12.93 14.24 15.52 16.95 -11.5% 4.8% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6%

Optimistic 11.54 10.24 12.51 13.56 14.22 14.92 -11.3% 4.1% 2.9% 2.2% 1.9%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

86

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2020-2041

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2020E 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2020-21 2021-26 2021-31 2021-36 2021-41

Domestic Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 613.8 442.4 778.6 887.0 991.3 1,076.2 -27.9% 12.0% 7.2% 5.5% 4.5%

(BIL) Baseline 613.8 571.1 961.0 1,089.1 1,244.6 1,387.5 -7.0% 11.0% 6.7% 5.3% 4.5%

Optimistic 613.8 573.4 1,018.3 1,113.9 1,259.8 1,413.3 -6.6% 12.2% 6.9% 5.4% 4.6%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 421.8 307.7 669.9 763.5 855.8 931.9 -27.1% 16.8% 9.5% 7.1% 5.7%

(BIL) Baseline 421.8 397.2 826.9 937.6 1,074.7 1,201.6 -5.8% 15.8% 9.0% 6.9% 5.7%

Optimistic 421.8 398.8 876.2 958.8 1,087.6 1,223.7 -5.5% 17.0% 9.2% 6.9% 5.8%

Enplanements Pessimistic 462.6 340.4 730.7 821.7 908.9 976.5 -26.4% 16.5% 9.2% 6.8% 5.4%

(MIL) Baseline 462.6 439.4 902.0 1,009.1 1,141.3 1,259.1 -5.0% 15.5% 8.7% 6.6% 5.4%

Optimistic 462.6 441.2 955.8 1,031.9 1155.0 1,282.3 -4.6% 16.7% 8.9% 6.6% 5.5%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 4,340.8 3,038.6 5,416.0 6,065.8 6,670.2 7,121.5 -30.0% 12.3% 7.2% 5.4% 4.4%

(MIL) Baseline 4,340.8 3,924.7 6,688.7 7,454.2 8,383.1 9,190.8 -9.6% 11.3% 6.6% 5.2% 4.3%

Optimistic 4,340.8 3,940.0 7,088.6 7,623.5 8,484.3 9,361.1 -9.2% 12.5% 6.8% 5.2% 4.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 6,066.9 4,257.3 7,365.8 8,105.6 8,732.8 9,125.4 -29.8% 11.6% 6.7% 4.9% 3.9%

(000s) Baseline 6,066.9 5,484.7 9,052.3 9,901.3 10,895.1 11,674.5 -9.6% 10.5% 6.1% 4.7% 3.8%

Optimistic 6,066.9 5,515.1 9,596.6 10,117.2 11,012.9 11,877.6 -9.1% 11.7% 6.3% 4.7% 3.9%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 11.00 9.55 12.90 15.10 17.39 20.17 -13.1% 6.2% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8%

(cents) Baseline 11.00 9.44 12.31 13.58 14.80 16.15 -14.1% 5.4% 3.7% 3.0% 2.7%

Optimistic 11.00 9.45 11.69 12.59 13.17 13.78 -14.0% 4.3% 2.9% 2.2% 1.9%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

87

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2020-2041

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2020E 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2020-21 2021-26 2021-31 2021-36 2021-41

International Aviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 177.7 153.5 347.9 428.1 488.2 547.7 -13.6% 17.8% 10.8% 8.0% 6.6%

(BIL) Baseline 177.7 182.0 387.4 450.7 522.2 599.1 2.5% 16.3% 9.5% 7.3% 6.1%

Optimistic 177.7 187.2 396.1 457.3 535.3 623.3 5.4% 16.2% 9.3% 7.3% 6.2%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 128.5 97.8 284.6 351.4 400.7 449.6 -23.9% 23.8% 13.6% 9.9% 7.9%

(BIL) Baseline 128.5 116.0 316.9 370.0 428.8 492.0 -9.7% 22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 7.5%

Optimistic 128.5 119.3 324.0 375.4 439.6 512.1 -7.2% 22.1% 12.1% 9.1% 7.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 48.4 40.5 96.5 119.4 137.9 157.0 -16.3% 18.9% 11.4% 8.5% 7.0%

(MIL) Baseline 48.4 48.0 107.3 126.0 148.5 173.4 -0.8% 17.4% 10.1% 7.8% 6.6%

Optimistic 48.4 49.4 109.8 127.8 152.6 181.2 2.0% 17.3% 10.0% 7.8% 6.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 817.9 706.1 1,544.1 1,886.5 2,137.2 2,382.5 -13.7% 16.9% 10.3% 7.7% 6.3%

(MIL) Baseline 817.9 837.2 1,718.7 1,988.0 2,291.6 2,615.7 2.4% 15.5% 9.0% 6.9% 5.9%

Optimistic 817.9 861.0 1,757.5 2,016.8 2,351.1 2,725.5 5.3% 15.3% 8.9% 6.9% 5.9%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 376.8 352.2 644.7 789.6 902.9 1,017.5 -6.5% 12.9% 8.4% 6.5% 5.4%

(000s) Baseline 376.8 417.6 716.5 834.2 974.7 1,128.3 10.8% 11.4% 7.2% 5.8% 5.1%

Optimistic 376.8 429.5 733.3 846.0 1,002.5 1,180.1 14.0% 11.3% 7.0% 5.8% 5.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.33 12.79 13.96 15.13 17.34 20.03 -4.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 2.3%

(cents) Baseline 13.33 12.84 14.56 15.89 17.33 18.93 -3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 13.33 12.87 14.73 16.05 16.82 17.63 -3.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

88

Appendix B: Forecast Tables
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

89

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2020 FISCAL YEAR 2021 FISCAL YEAR 2022

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption 

Expenditure per Capita

(2012 $) 40,543 39,789 35,928 39,070 39,325 39,408 39,550 39,702 39,856 40,006 40,160 40,314

Year over year change 2.0% -0.3% -10.7% -3.4% -3.0% -1.0% 10.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars per barrel) 58.00 47.29 26.68 40.88 34.35 34.81 35.92 40.56 44.09 45.23 46.82 50.42

Year over year change -2.7% -17.3% -58.0% -30.3% -40.8% -26.4% 34.6% -0.8% 28.3% 29.9% 30.3% 24.3%Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 257.8 258.6 256.3 259.5 261.0 262.1 263.8 265.7 267.7 269.3 271.0 272.6

Year over year change 2.0% 2.1% 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

90

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2012 $) (2012 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2010 15,500 34,165 2.17 74.612015 17,339 36,940 2.37 56.692018 18,574 39,337 2.50 63.722019 18,982 40,082 2.54 59.772020E 18,538 38,831 2.58 43.21

Forecast2021 18,895 39,496 2.63 36.412026 21,576 43,717 2.95 62.052031 24,285 49,488 3.32 76.362036 27,025 55,198 3.73 84.962041 29,648 60,070 4.20 93.53

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 1.8% 1.3% 1.7% -5.3%

2020-21 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% -15.7%

2021-31 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 7.7%2021-41 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 4.8%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

91

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA / 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2010 1,400 21,290 4,613 19,000 64,3632015 1,557 23,205 5,174 24,463 74,528

2018 1,659 24,863 5,344 28,339 81,7642019 1,690 25,229 5,384 29,514 83,8422020E 1,593 23,508 4,993 29,064 80,413

Forecast2021 1,666 24,356 5,179 30,721 84,0422026 1,885 27,511 5,870 38,163 98,7582031 2,045 30,121 6,753 46,276 113,482

2036 2,225 32,889 7,790 54,972 129,2882041 2,427 35,811 8,988 64,275 145,888

Avg Annual Growth

2010-20 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 4.3% 2.3%2020-21 4.6% 3.6% 3.7% 5.7% 4.5%2021-31 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 4.2% 3.0%

2021-41 1.9% 1.9% 2.8% 3.8% 2.8%Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

92

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(NAFTA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 18,731 11,189 2,655 4,220 7,4902015 20,966 11,662 2,934 4,446 10,9612018 22,465 12,435 3,075 4,580 13,3662019 22,915 12,597 3,113 4,592 14,1862020E 22,017 11,661 2,754 4,346 14,484

Forecast2021 22,952 12,084 2,849 4,460 15,5672026 26,265 13,332 3,249 4,696 20,1442031 29,304 14,171 3,515 4,914 25,0942036 32,593 15,011 3,791 5,122 30,3742041 35,818 15,868 4,082 5,310 35,841

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 6.8%2020-21 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 2.6% 7.5%2021-31 2.5% 1.6% 2.1% 1.0% 4.9%2021-41 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 4.3%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

93

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 635 77 712 555 231 7862015 696 90 786 629 261 8892018 781 100 880 720 281 1,0012019 813 103 917 752 292 1,0442020E 463 48 511 422 128 550

Forecast2021 439 48 487 397 116 5132026 902 107 1,009 827 317 1,144

2031 1,009 126 1,135 938 370 1,3082036 1,141 148 1,290 1,075 429 1,5032041 1,259 173 1,433 1,202 492 1,694

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -3.1% -4.6% -3.3% -2.7% -5.7% -3.5%

2020-21 -5.0% -0.8% -4.6% -5.8% -9.7% -6.8%

2021-31 8.7% 10.1% 8.8% 9.0% 12.3% 9.8%

2021-41 5.4% 6.6% 5.5% 5.7% 7.5% 6.2%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

94

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.82015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 889 83.4

2018 850 720 84.7 345 281 81.5 1,195 1,001 83.8

2019 883 752 85.2 352 292 82.9 1,235 1,044 84.5

2020E 614 422 68.7 178 128 72.3 791 550 69.5

Forecast2021 571 397 69.5 182 116 63.7 753 513 68.12026 961 827 86.0 387 317 81.8 1,348 1,144 84.8

2031 1,089 938 86.1 451 370 82.1 1,540 1,308 84.9

2036 1,245 1,075 86.3 522 429 82.1 1,767 1,503 85.1

2041 1,387 1,202 86.6 599 492 82.1 1,987 1,694 85.3

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -1.0% -2.7% -1.7% -4.5% -5.7% -1.3% -1.9% -3.5% -1.6%2020-21 -7.0% -5.8% 1.2% 2.5% -9.7% -11.9% -4.8% -6.8% -2.0%2021-31 6.7% 9.0% 2.2% 9.5% 12.3% 2.6% 7.4% 9.8% 2.2%

2021-41 4.5% 5.7% 1.1% 6.1% 7.5% 1.3% 5.0% 6.2% 1.1%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

95

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 2312015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 2612018 26 60 13 100 112 94 75 2812019 28 62 13 103 121 96 75 2922020E 11 32 6 48 48 49 31 128

Forecast

2021 8 37 4 48 36 59 21 1162026 32 63 13 107 140 99 78 3172031 36 76 14 126 158 122 90 3702036 40 93 16 148 177 150 101 4292041 44 112 18 173 197 182 112 492

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -7.8% -2.2% -8.1% -4.6% -7.8% -2.5% -6.2% -5.7%2020-21 -28.7% 14.7% -36.0% -0.8% -25.4% 20.0% -32.2% -9.7%2021-31 16.5% 7.6% 14.8% 10.1% 16.0% 7.6% 15.5% 12.3%2021-41 9.1% 5.7% 8.3% 6.6% 8.9% 5.8% 8.7% 7.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

96

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 158

2015 70 75 36 27 207

2018 85 86 42 31 244

2019 89 89 44 32 253

2020E 17 33

9 7 67

Forecast2021 25 53 12 17 106

2026 102 89 42 36 2702031 120 109 51 42 3212036 140 133 59 49 3812041 160 160 69 57 446

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -11.0% -4.5% -10.0% -10.8% -8.2%

2020-21 41.5% 57.9% 24.8% 147.2% 58.3%

2021-31 17.2% 7.5% 15.7% 9.2% 11.7%2021-41 9.8% 5.7% 9.2% 6.1% 7.4%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  data also received from Transport Canada.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

97

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 121.9 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.2

2015 131.6 214.8 149.1 902.8 2,892.6 1,131.12018 140.0 219.1 156.3 922.1 2,820.1 1,136.92019 141.3 221.5 157.6 925.0 2,821.1 1,139.02020E 141.4 217.2 153.4 912.0 2,653.2 1,077.0

Forecast2021 145.5 217.4 158.2 903.9 2,414.5 1,052.72026 143.7 225.4 160.4 916.7 2,954.3 1,133.32031 146.1 226.7 163.1 929.1 2,935.9 1,151.92036 148.5 227.9 165.5 941.6 2,887.6 1,165.62041 151.0 229.0 168.3 954.3 2,836.8 1,182.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 1% 0% 1% 0% -1% 0%

2020-21 3% 0% 3% -1% -9% -2%

2021-31 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%2021-41 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

98

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 7102015 543 87 630 556 259 8152018 627 96 723 645 279 9242019 654 100 754 674 290 9632020E 369 47 416 375 127 502

Forecast2021 353 46 400 356 115 4712026 725 104 829 741 315 1,0552031 811 122 934 840 368 1,2072036 918 144 1,062 963 426 1,389

2041 1,012 169 1,181 1,076 489 1,565

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -2.5% -4.6% -2.7% -2.5% -5.7% -3.4%

2020-21 -4.2% -0.5% -3.8% -5.1% -9.7% -6.2%

2021-31 8.7% 10.2% 8.9% 9.0% 12.3% 9.9%

2021-41 5.4% 6.7% 5.6% 5.7% 7.5% 6.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

99

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.5

2015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.7

2018 756 645 85.3 342 279 81.6 1,098 924 84.12019 785 674 85.8 349 290 83.0 1,134 963 84.92020E 543 375 69.0 176 127 72.4 719 502 69.8

Forecast2021 508 356 70.1 180 115 63.7 688 471 68.4

2026 854 741 86.7 385 315 81.8 1,239 1,055 85.2

2031 968 840 86.8 448 368 82.1 1,416 1,207 85.3

2036 1,106 963 87.0 519 426 82.1 1,625 1,389 85.5

2041 1,233 1,076 87.3 595 489 82.1 1,828 1,565 85.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.7% -2.5% -1.8% -4.5% -5.7% -1.3% -1.8% -3.4% -1.7%

2020-21 -6.5% -5.1% 1.6% 2.6% -9.7% -12.0% -4.3% -6.2% -2.0%

2021-31 6.7% 9.0% 2.2% 9.5% 12.3% 2.6% 7.5% 9.9% 2.2%

2021-41 4.5% 5.7% 1.1% 6.1% 7.5% 1.3% 5.0% 6.2% 1.1%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

100

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical

2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.22018 26.0 56.9 13.3 96.22019 27.9 59.2 13.2 100.22020E 10.8 30.3 5.6 46.7

Forecast2021 7.7 35.2 3.6 46.52026 31.9 59.6 12.6 104.12031 35.6 72.7 14.2 122.42036 39.7 88.8 15.9 144.42041 43.9 107.4 17.7 169.0

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -7.8% -2.0% -8.1% -4.6%2020-21 -28.7% 16.0% -36.0% -0.5%2021-31 16.5% 7.5% 14.8% 10.2%2021-41 9.1% 5.7% 8.3% 6.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

101

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical

2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.2

2015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.8

2018 138 112 81.0 111 92 82.2 92 75 81.7 342 279 81.6

2019 146 121 82.9 112 94 83.5 91 75 82.6 349 290 83.0

2020E 69 48 69.3 63 48 76.2 44 31 71.8 176 127 72.4

Forecast2021 60 36 59.4 86 58 67.0 34 21 63.0 180 115 63.72026 172 140 81.4 117 97 82.8 96 78 81.3 385 315 81.82031 194 158 81.4 145 120 82.8 109 90 82.4 448 368 82.12036 218 177 81.4 178 148 82.8 122 101 82.4 519 426 82.12041 242 197 81.4 217 179 82.8 136 112 82.4 595 489 82.1

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -6.1% -7.8% -1.8% -2.1% -2.5% -0.4% -4.7% -6.2% -1.6% -4.5% -5.7% -1.3%

2020-21 -12.9% -25.4% -14.3% 37.3% 20.8% -12.0% -22.7% -32.2% -12.2% 2.6% -9.7% -12.0%2021-31 12.4% 16.0% 3.2% 5.3% 7.6% 2.1% 12.4% 15.5% 2.7% 9.5% 12.3% 2.6%

2021-41 7.2% 8.9% 1.6% 4.7% 5.8% 1.1% 7.2% 8.7% 1.4% 6.1% 7.5% 1.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

102

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.22015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.82018 164.2 247.5 178.1 265.2 223.2 178.92019 166.0 251.6 177.9 269.9 225.6 180.72020E 166.8 256.2 178.5 256.5 221.8 177.5

Forecast2021 171.0 267.6 184.8 275.7 221.4 181.82026 168.8 253.8 180.2 270.0 228.7 183.82031 171.7 256.2 182.7 273.9 229.9 186.62036 174.4 258.7 185.2 277.8 230.9 189.22041 177.4 261.1 187.7 281.6 232.0 192.1Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

103

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,2962015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,2922018 1,029 4,299 1,610 5,638 2,895 1,2772019 1,030 4,330 1,582 5,709 2,890 1,278

2020E 1,016 4,442 1,577 5,634 2,725 1,208Forecast2021 1,007 4,648 1,642 5,972 2,474 1,1772026 1,021 4,383 1,631 6,193 3,025 1,2732031 1,035 4,440 1,651 6,318 3,002 1,2932036 1,049 4,471 1,662 6,343 2,950 1,3072041 1,063 4,493 1,670 6,353 2,894 1,325Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

104

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 14.98 12.84 15.24 12.69 15.062015 14.79 16.12 14.16 15.43 14.59 15.902018 13.92 14.38 13.58 14.04 13.82 14.282019 14.12 14.33 13.47 13.66 13.92 14.132020E 11.22 11.22 13.37 13.37 11.76 11.76

Forecast2021 9.62 9.44 12.87 12.62 10.41 10.212026 12.54 10.98 14.59 12.77 13.15 11.522031 13.84 10.75 15.92 12.37 14.47 11.252036 15.08 10.44 17.37 12.02 15.78 10.922041 16.45 10.11 18.97 11.66 17.24 10.60

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -1.2% -2.8% 0.4% -1.3% -0.8% -2.4%2020-21 -14.2% -15.9% -3.8% -5.6% -11.5% -13.2%2021-31 3.7% 1.3% 2.2% -0.2% 3.3% 1.0%2021-41 2.7% 0.3% 2.0% -0.4% 2.6% 0.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

105

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 15.12 13.33 15.83 12.50 14.84 12.84 15.242015 14.64 15.95 14.38 15.67 13.20 14.39 14.16 15.43

2018 14.38 14.86 14.13 14.60 11.73 12.12 13.58 14.04

2019 14.04 14.25 14.20 14.41 11.63 11.80 13.47 13.662020E 13.42 13.42 14.56 14.56 11.48 11.48 13.37 13.37

Forecast2021 13.38 13.12 13.14 12.88 11.27 11.05 12.87 12.622026 15.11 13.23 15.70 13.75 12.25 10.72 14.59 12.772031 16.54 12.85 16.98 13.19 13.42 10.43 15.92 12.37

2036 18.11 12.53 18.27 12.64 14.73 10.19 17.37 12.022041 19.88 12.22 19.70 12.11 16.20 9.96 18.97 11.66

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 0.5% -1.2% 0.9% -0.8% -0.8% -2.5% 0.4% -1.3%2020-21 -0.3% -2.2% -9.7% -11.5% -1.8% -3.7% -3.8% -5.6%

2021-31 2.1% -0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 1.8% -0.6% 2.2% -0.2%

2021-41 2.0% -0.4% 2.0% -0.3% 1.8% -0.5% 2.0% -0.4%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

106

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2020 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 219.19 260.18 220.12 261.29 219.49 260.54

2015 207.29 225.94 211.77 230.82 208.96 227.76

2018 206.63 213.52 208.42 215.37 207.29 214.20

2019 205.67 208.67 207.82 210.84 206.63 209.64

2020E 166.65 166.65 167.19 167.19 166.83 166.83

Forecast

2021 138.87 136.19 139.32 136.63 139.02 136.33

2026 211.79 185.43 212.48 186.03 212.02 185.63

2031 263.29 204.57 264.14 205.23 263.58 204.79

2036 293.34 202.96 294.29 203.62 293.66 203.18

2041 323.35 198.81 324.40 199.45 323.70 199.02

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -2.7% -4.4% -2.7% -4.4% -2.7% -4.4%

2020-21 -16.7% -18.3% -16.7% -18.3% -16.7% -18.3%

2021-31 6.6% 4.2% 6.6% 4.2% 6.6% 4.2%2021-41 4.3% 1.9% 4.3% 1.9% 4.3% 1.9%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

107

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions) 

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS 

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,306 15,971 27,276 1,495 6,246 7,742 12,801 22,217 35,018

2015 11,636 16,359 27,995 1,455 6,277 7,733 13,091 22,636 35,7272018 14,182 19,465 33,647 1,580 7,532 9,112 15,761 26,997 42,7592019 14,737 19,668 34,405 1,468 6,986 8,454 16,205 26,654 42,8582020E 16,639 21,958 38,597 1,127 4,135 5,262 17,767 26,093 43,860

Forecast2021 17,064 22,673 39,737 1,422 5,094 6,517 18,487 27,768 46,254

2026 18,679 26,238 44,917 1,792 8,909 10,701 20,471 35,147 55,6182031 20,228 32,208 52,436 1,868 10,225 12,093 22,096 42,433 64,5292036 21,953 38,827 60,780 1,949 11,497 13,447 23,902 50,324 74,2262041 23,413 45,691 69,104 1,996 12,586 14,582 25,408 58,277 83,685

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 3.9% 3.2% 3.5% -2.8% -4.0% -3.8% 3.3% 1.6% 2.3%2020-21 2.6% 3.3% 3.0% 26.2% 23.2% 23.8% 4.1% 6.4% 5.5%2021-31 1.7% 3.6% 2.8% 2.8% 7.2% 6.4% 1.8% 4.3% 3.4%2021-41 1.6% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% 4.6% 4.1% 1.6% 3.8% 3.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new 

 reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 

3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

108

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical2010 6,786 1,990 7,897 5,545 22,2172015 6,627 1,639 9,018 5,352 22,6362018 7,554 1,846 10,422 7,176 26,9972019 7,426 1,663 10,429 7,135 26,6542020E 6,670 1,295 10,197 7,931 26,093

Forecast

2021 6,972 1,424 11,072 8,300 27,7682026 8,836 1,706 14,445 10,161 35,1472031 10,329 1,963 17,575 12,566 42,4332036 11,774 2,229 20,969 15,352 50,3242041 12,868 2,436 24,468 18,505 58,277

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.2% -4.2% 2.6% 3.6% 1.6%

2020-21 4.5% 10.0% 8.6% 4.7% 6.4%2021-31 4.0% 3.3% 4.7% 4.2% 4.3%2021-41 3.1% 2.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

109

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

LARGE 

JETS REGIONAL JETS TOTAL JETS

Historical2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,9432018 3,678 0 0 3,678 541 0 0 541 4,219 98 4,3172019 3,775 0 0 3,775 553 0 0 553 4,328 60 4,3882020E 2,860 0 0 2,860 298 0 0 298 3,158 23 3,181

Forecast2021 2,828 0 0 2,828 281 0 0 281 3,109 23 3,132

2026 3,560 0 0 3,560 476 0 0 476 4,036 0 4,036

2031 3,762 0 0 3,762 560 0 0 560 4,322 0 4,3222036 4,092 0 0 4,092 638 0 0 638 4,730 0 4,7302041 4,387 0 0 4,387 714 0 0 714 5,101 0 5,101

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.9% -100.0% -100.0% -0.9% -4.5% -100.0% -100.0% -5.5% -1.4% -10.7% -1.6%

2020-21 -1.1% N.A. N.A. -1.1% -5.7% N.A. N.A. -5.7% -1.6% 0.0% -1.5%2021-31 2.9% N.A. N.A. 2.9% 7.1% N.A. N.A. 7.1% 3.3% -100.0% 3.3%

2021-41 2.2% N.A. N.A. 2.2% 4.8% N.A. N.A. 4.8% 2.5% -99.9% 2.5%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

110

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 7892018 213 11 2 226 392 120 100 612 8382019 216 10 2 228 419 120 112 651 8792020E 200 10 0 210 414 115 109 638 848

Forecast2021 213 8 0 221 434 111 110 655 876

2026 276 3 0 279 557 104 124 785 1,0642031 366 0 0 366 681 101 123 905 1,2712036 439 0 0 439 861 77 113 1,051 1,4902041 517 0 0 517 1,089 8 97 1,194 1,711

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 2.7% -20.9% -100.0% -3.1% 4.6% -5.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%2020-21 6.5% -20.0% N.A. 5.2% 4.8% -3.5% 0.9% 2.7% 3.3%2021-31 5.6% -100.0% N.A. 5.2% 4.6% -0.9% 1.1% 3.3% 3.8%2021-41 4.5% -99.9% N.A. 4.3% 4.7% -12.3% -0.6% 3.0% 3.4%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

111

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

AIR 

CARRIER

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

Historical2010 12,036 6,315 18,351 1,435 19,786 2 221 223 20,0092015 12,834 6,541 19,374 1,383 20,757 2 196 198 20,9552018 14,553 7,121 21,674 1,820 23,494 2 232 234 23,7282019 14,594 7,043 21,637 1,510 23,148 2 200 202 23,3502020E 10,504 4,715 15,219 1,269 16,489 2 184 186 16,675Forecast2021 9,677 4,783 14,460 1,475 15,935 2 186 188 16,123

2026 15,493 7,841 23,334 1,894 25,228 2 183 185 25,4132031 16,706 8,680 25,386 2,085 27,471 2 178 180 27,6512036 18,165 9,568 27,733 2,246 29,979 2 175 177 30,1562041 19,267 10,444 29,712 2,393 32,104 2 177 179 32,283

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -1.4% -2.9% -1.9% -1.2% -1.8% 0.0% -1.8% -1.8% -1.8%

2020-21 -7.9% 1.4% -5.0% 16.2% -3.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% -3.3%

2021-31 5.6% 6.1% 5.8% 3.5% 5.6% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% 5.5%2021-41 3.5% 4.0% 3.7% 2.4% 3.6% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 3.5%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

112

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2020 $ 

(Cents)

Historical

2010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464 503 465 15.74 18.68

2015 60.0 62.6 60.1 476 695 480 10.93 11.92

2018 64.1 70.8 64.3 487 680 491 11.32 11.702019 64.5 70.8 64.7 492 685 496 11.50 11.672020E 65.2 70.6 65.3 502 685 506 9.23 9.23

Forecast2021 66.4 70.9 66.5 481 656 484 7.95 7.802026 65.6 72.4 65.7 488 665 491 10.31 9.032031 66.7 73.9 66.9 495 674 498 11.37 8.832036 67.8 75.4 67.9 501 684 505 12.39 8.572041 68.9 76.9 69.1 508 693 511 13.50 8.30Avg Annual Growth

2010-20 1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 3.1% 0.9% -5.2% -6.8%2020-21 1.9% 0.4% 1.9% -4.2% -4.2% -4.2% -13.9% -15.5%

2021-31 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6% 1.3%2021-41 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.7% 0.3%Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

** Reporting carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

113

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 162 3 164 75,029 1,347 76,376

2015 153 3 156 72,737 2,116 74,853

2018 154 3 157 74,852 2,295 77,1472019 159 3 163 78,468 2,211 80,6792020E 94 2 95 47,119 1,165 48,284

Forecast

2021 86 2 88 41,436 1,025 42,4602026 177 3 180 86,265 2,133 88,3982031 198 4 201 97,811 2,419 100,2302036 224 4 228 112,118 2,772 114,8902041 247 4 251 125,355 3,100 128,455

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -5.3% -4.4% -5.3% -4.5% -1.4% -4.5%

2020-21 -8.2% -8.2% -8.2% -12.1% -12.1% -12.1%

2021-31 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

2021-41 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

114

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 98,455 75,029 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,312 76,376 76.1

2015 90,647 72,737 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 93,467 74,853 80.1

2018 93,860 74,852 79.7 3,023 2,295 75.9 96,883 77,147 79.6

2019 98,202 78,468 79.9 2,933 2,211 75.4 101,135 80,679 79.8

2020E 70,621 47,119 66.7 1,742 1,165 66.9 72,363 48,284 66.7

Forecast2021 63,494 41,436 65.3 1,567 1,025 65.4 65,061 42,460 65.3

2026 106,842 86,265 80.7 2,636 2,133 80.9 109,478 88,398 80.7

2031 121,088 97,811 80.8 2,987 2,419 81.0 124,076 100,230 80.8

2036 138,380 112,118 81.0 3,414 2,772 81.2 141,794 114,890 81.0

2041 154,263 125,355 81.3 3,806 3,100 81.4 158,069 128,455 81.3

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -3.3% -4.5% -1.3% -0.6% -1.4% -0.8% -3.2% -4.5% -1.3%

2020-21 -10.1% -12.1% -2.2% -10.1% -12.1% -2.2% -10.1% -12.1% -2.2%

2021-31 6.7% 9.0% 2.2% 6.7% 9.0% 2.2% 6.7% 9.0% 2.2%

2021-41 4.5% 5.7% 1.1% 4.5% 5.7% 1.1% 4.5% 5.7% 1.1%Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

115

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

AS OF JANUARY 1

LESS THAN 

9 SEATS

10 TO 19 

SEATS

20 TO 30 

SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,144

2018 360 77 20 11 3 14 54 1,795 1,849 522 1,798 2,320

2019 374 72 19 11 0 11 39 1,846 1,885 515 1,846 2,361

2020E 276 74 20 9 0 9 40 1,434 1,474 419 1,434 1,853

Forecast2021 246 66 18 6 0 6 42 1,406 1,448 377 1,406 1,783

2026 186 49 14 0 0 0 60 1,670 1,730 309 1,670 1,979

2031 130 35 9 0 0 0 65 1,588 1,653 240 1,588 1,828

2036 73 20 5 0 0 0 70 1,735 1,805 168 1,735 1,903

2041 24 5 2 0 0 0 75 1,838 1,913 106 1,838 1,944

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -4.6% -2.2% -13.2% -24.2% -100.0% -25.5% -8.7% -1.8% -2.1% -6.9% -2.0% -3.4%

2020-21 -10.9% -11.1% -10.5% -38.9% N.A. -38.9% 5.0% -2.0% -1.8% -10.0% -2.0% -3.8%2021-31 -6.1% -6.1% -6.2% -100.0% N.A. -100.0% 4.5% 1.2% 1.3% -4.4% 1.2% 0.2%

2021-41 -11.1% -12.0% -10.1% -99.9% N.A. -99.9% 2.9% 1.3% 1.4% -6.2% 1.3% 0.4%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

116

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,3722018 130,179 12,861 143,040 9,925 14,596 24,521 3,082 6,907 9,989 27,531 2,554 4,114 211,749 146,122 31,4282019 128,926 12,470 141,396 10,242 14,888 25,130 3,089 7,109 10,198 27,449 2,675 4,133 210,981 144,485 32,2392020E 127,920 12,395 140,315 10,205 15,245 25,450 3,065 7,090 10,155 24,455 2,145 2,460 204,980 143,380 32,540

Forecast2021 126,745 12,320 139,065 10,170 15,620 25,790 3,070 7,145 10,215 25,250 2,465 3,085 205,870 142,135 32,9352026 120,595 11,970 132,565 10,165 17,770 27,935 3,165 7,650 10,815 28,075 3,525 4,160 207,075 135,730 35,5852031 114,990 11,720 126,710 10,390 20,065 30,455 3,300 8,280 11,580 29,965 4,180 4,180 207,070 130,010 38,7352036 109,860 11,520 121,380 10,725 22,305 33,030 3,460 8,985 12,445 31,625 4,790 4,215 207,485 124,840 42,0152041 105,540 11,365 116,905 11,385 24,395 35,780 3,640 9,750 13,390 33,050 5,415 4,250 208,790 120,545 45,530Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.9% -2.5% -1.0% 0.9% 2.9% 2.0% -1.6% 0.9% 0.1% -0.1% -10.5% -8.0% -0.9% -1.0% 1.7%2020-21 -0.9% -0.6% -0.9% -0.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 3.3% 14.9% 25.4% 0.4% -0.9% 1.2%2021-31 -1.0% -0.5% -0.9% 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% 5.4% 3.1% 0.1% -0.9% 1.6%2021-41 -0.9% -0.4% -0.9% 0.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.1% -0.8% 1.6%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

117

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,3112015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,8712018 12,092 1,694 13,785 2,736 4,592 7,328 601 2,322 2,922 1,153 187 131 25,506 14,386 9,6502019 12,700 1,731 14,431 2,619 3,926 6,546 628 2,369 2,997 1,269 189 135 25,566 15,059 8,9142020E 11,768 1,708 13,476 2,624 3,159 5,783 567 2,126 2,693 923 158 50 23,082 14,043 7,909

Forecast2021 11,805 1,689 13,494 2,701 3,841 6,542 605 2,303 2,908 1,015 185 73 24,217 14,098 8,8452026 11,286 1,606 12,892 2,911 5,436 8,346 688 2,617 3,306 1,301 278 141 26,264 13,581 10,964

2031 10,710 1,553 12,263 2,991 6,245 9,236 760 2,896 3,656 1,471 338 140 27,104 13,023 12,132

2036 10,298 1,549 11,847 3,092 6,956 10,048 821 3,169 3,990 1,596 393 142 28,016 12,668 13,217

2041 10,184 1,577 11,761 3,297 7,637 10,935 886 3,465 4,350 1,714 449 144 29,353 12,647 14,399

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.3% -0.6% -0.4% 1.2% -0.7% 0.1% -3.3% -2.0% -2.3% -2.8% -6.6% -12.0% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5%2020-21 0.3% -1.1% 0.1% 2.9% 21.6% 13.1% 6.7% 8.3% 8.0% 10.0% 17.3% 46.3% 4.9% 0.4% 11.8%

2021-31 -1.0% -0.8% -1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 3.8% 6.2% 6.7% 1.1% -0.8% 3.2%2021-41 -0.7% -0.3% -0.7% 1.0% 3.5% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% 4.5% 3.4% 1.0% -0.5% 2.5%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

118

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

AS OF DEC. 31

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT

ROTORCRAFT 

ONLY

GLIDER 

ONLY

TOTAL LESS 

STUDENT 

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT 

RATED 

PILOTS1

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,001

2015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,329

2018 144 6,246 163,695 99,880 162,145 15,033 18,370 465,513 311,017

2019 127 6,467 161,105 100,863 164,947 14,248 19,143 466,900 314,168

2020E 105 6,643 160,860 103,879 164,193 13,629 19,753 469,062 316,651

Forecast2021 100 6,805 160,750 103,900 166,400 13,350 20,300 471,605 317,000

2026 85 7,710 160,550 103,900 172,000 14,200 21,800 480,245 323,500

2031 70 8,855 155,900 103,500 178,000 15,450 22,500 484,275 330,600

2036 60 10,265 150,700 102,950 185,100 16,700 22,750 488,525 337,400

2041 50 11,615 147,200 102,500 191,600 17,950 22,900 493,815 343,800

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -6.8% 6.1% -2.3% -1.7% 1.4% -1.2% -0.7% -0.8% 0.0%

2020-21 -4.8% 2.4% -0.1% 0.0% 1.3% -2.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1%

2021-31 -3.5% 2.7% -0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4%

2021-41 -3.4% 2.7% -0.4% -0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

*

Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot 

 numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. Since there is no sufficient data yet to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021

–2041

119

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE

EXPERIMENTAL** 

/ OTHER

LIGHT 

SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,578

2018 152 50 234 1,455 9 132 20 1 232 1,820 2,052

2019 131 45 213 1,170 8 127 16 1 200 1,510 1,711

2020E 121 44 214 941 7 114 11 1 184 1,269 1,453

Forecast2021 121 44 219 1,133 8 122 12 1 186 1,475 1,661

2026 116 41 233 1,525 9 136 16 1 183 1,894 2,077

2031 109 40 236 1,705 10 144 18 2 178 2,085 2,263

2036 104 39 238 1,852 10 156 19 2 175 2,246 2,421

2041 103 40 247 1,983 11 162 21 2 177 2,393 2,569

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -1.0% -1.9% 1.3% -1.7% -3.9% -0.9% -6.6% -5.1% -1.8% -1.2% -1.3%

2020-21 0.3% -1.2% 2.7% 20.4% 6.7% 7.3% 11.8% 17.3% 1.0% 16.2% 14.3%

2021-31 -1.1% -1.0% 0.7% 4.2% 2.2% 1.7% 3.9% 5.8% -0.4% 3.5% 3.1%

2021-41 -0.8% -0.5% 0.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 2.6% 4.2% -0.3% 2.4% 2.2%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

120

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical

2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 2442015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,579 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,724 264 2522018 15,686 7,126 14,130 12,354 26,485 1,319 1,155 2,474 51,770 264 2542019 16,192 7,234 14,245 13,109 27,354 1,349 1,134 2,483 53,264 264 2562020 11,737 5,472 12,608 12,333 24,941 1,192 1,020 2,212 44,362 264 256

Forecast2021 11,219 5,013 13,199 12,744 25,943 1,192 1,020 2,212 44,388 264 2562026 19,050 5,336 15,139 13,632 28,770 1,192 1,020 2,212 55,368 264 2562031 21,337 5,646 15,333 13,877 29,210 1,192 1,020 2,212 58,406 264 2562036 23,490 5,960 15,533 14,131 29,664 1,192 1,020 2,212 61,326 264 2562041 25,571 6,287 15,738 14,393 30,131 1,192 1,020 2,212 64,201 264 256

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -0.8% -5.3% -1.6% 0.5% -0.6% -0.9% -2.4% -1.6% -1.4%2020-21 -4.4% -8.4% 4.7% 3.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%2021-31 6.6% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%2021-41 4.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

121

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY OVERFLIGHT TOTAL

Historical2010 12,576 8,667 10,839 2,054 4,851 38,987

2015 13,611 7,095 10,399 1,966 4,100 37,171

2018 15,519 6,495 10,805 1,954 4,115 38,888

2019 15,991 6,547 10,871 1,940 3,644 38,993

2020 11,617 5,153 9,691 1,763 3,050 31,274

Forecast2021 11,098 4,533 10,160 1,765 2,981 30,5352026 18,856 4,471 11,872 1,765 3,993 40,9572031 21,126 4,749 12,008 1,765 4,283 43,9312036 23,265 5,029 12,147 1,764 4,559 46,7642041 25,331 5,320 12,289 1,764 4,828 49,533

Avg Annual Growth

2010-20 -0.8% -5.1% -1.1% -1.5% -4.5% -2.2%

2020-21 -4.5% -12.0% 4.8% 0.1% -2.3% -2.4%2021-31 6.6% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 3.7% 3.7%2021-41 4.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2021–2041

122

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR COMMERCIAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2010 30,965 6,550 2,982 40,498

2015 33,116 7,007 1,795 41,918

2018 35,713 7,403 1,724 44,840

2019 35,682 6,275 1,525 43,483

2020 25,537 5,071 1,297 31,905

Forecast2021 23,938 5,425 1,297 30,660

2026 38,056 6,534 1,297 45,887

2031 42,798 6,703 1,297 50,798

2036 47,272 6,880 1,297 55,449

2041 51,593 7,067 1,297 59,956

Avg Annual Growth2010-20 -1.9% -2.5% -8.0% -2.4%2020-21 -6.3% 7.0% 0.0% -3.9%2021-31 6.0% 2.1% 0.0% 5.2%

2021-41 3.9% 1.3% 0.0% 3.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity