10D

- i

APPENDIX 10D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE GR OWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10D

- 1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ 10D

- 1

10D

- 2 ANALYTICAL RESULTS F OR HIGH ECONOMIC GRO WTH SCENARIO

. 10D

- 3

10D

- 3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS F OR LOW ECONOMIC GROW TH SCENARIO

.. 10D

- 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10D

- 2.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, High

Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...... 10D

- 3

Table 10D

- 2.2 Cumulative Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ....................... 10D

- 3

Table 10D

- 2.3 Cumulative NPV of Benefits to Buyers of Portable ACs, High

Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...... 10D

- 4

Table 10D

- 3.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, Low

Economic Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...... 10D

- 4

Table 10D

- 3.2 Cumulative Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ....................... 10D

- 5

Table 10D

- 3.3 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ....................... 10D

- 5

LIST OF FIGURE S

Figure 10D

- 1.1 Projections for Total Housing Stock under Three AEO 2014 Economic

Growth Scenarios

................................ ................................ ...................... 10D

- 1 Figure 10D

- 1.2 Projections for Average R esidential Electricity Prices under Three

AEO 2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................. 1 0D

- 2 Figure 10D

- 1.3 Projections for Average Commerc ial Electricity Prices under Three

AEO 2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................. 10D

- 210D

- 1

APPENDIX 10D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE GR OWTH SCENARIOS

10D

- 1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)

results from operating the national impact analysis model using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios

. The results indicate the range in NES and NPV for the four trial standard levels ( T SLs) for portable air conditioners (ACs). The alternative scenarios use the energy price s and housing starts projected for the high and low economic growth cases in the Energy Information Administration's ( EIA’s ) Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 ( AEO 201 4 )

. 1 Figure 10D

1.1 shows the projectio n s for total housing stock under the three economic growth scenarios

considered in the AEO 2014

.

Figure 10D

- 1.1 Projections for T otal Housing Stock u nder Three

AEO 201 4 Economic Growth Scenarios

Figure 10D

- 1.2 show s the projections for electricity prices for residential applications under the three economic growth scenarios. Figure 10D

- 1.3 shows the projections for electricity prices for commercial applications. AEO 2014 provides economic projections to 2040. To

estimate the trend after 20 40 , DOE followed guidelines that the EIA provided to th e Federal Energy Management Program, which called for extending the average rate of ch ange for electricity prices during 2030

– 20 40

.

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Total Housing Stock (millions)

Reference High Low10D

- 2 Figure 10D

- 1.2 Projections for Average Residential Electricity

Price s under Three AEO 201 4 Economic Growth

Scenarios

Figure 10D

- 1.3 Projections for Average Commercial Electricity

Price s under Three AEO 2014 Economic Growth

Scenarios 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 Electricity Price Trend (2012=100) Residential Electricity Price Projection

Reference Case High Low

0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 Electricity Price Trend (2012=100) Commercial Electricity Price Projection

Reference High Low10D

- 3

10D

- 2 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR HIGH ECO NOMIC GROWTH SCENARI O

The results of running the NIA model for the AEO 2014 reference economic growth case are presented in chapter 10. The following three tables present results of the NIA calculation using inputs from the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario in the simulation

. Table 10D

2.1 pre sents cumulative national primary energy savings under the high growth scenario for the

four TSL s considered for portable ACs

.

Table 10D

- 2.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quad s , High Economic

Growth Scenario

TSL Portable ACs in Residential Sites, Primary Portable ACs in

Commercial Sites, Primary Portable ACs in

both sectors, Primary Quads Quads Quads

1 0.540 0.008 0.548

2 0.692 0.010 0.702

3 0.818 0.012 0.830

4 0.941 0.015 0.957

Table 10D

- 2.2 presents cumulative energy savings in terms of the full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC)

for the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario.

Table 10D

- 2.2 Cumulative F ull

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings in Quads

, High Economic

Growth Scenario

TSL Portable ACs in

Residential Sites Portable ACs in

Commercial Sites Portable ACs in

both sectors

Quads Quads Quads

1 0.565 0.008 0.573

2 0.724 0.010 0.735

3 0.856 0.012 0.869

4 0.985 0.016 1.001

Table 10D

- 2.3 presents the cumulative NPV of monetary benefits to buyers of portable

ACs under the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario. Benefits are shown for discount rates of both 3 percent and 7 perc ent.10D

- 4

Table 10D

- 2.3 Cumulative NPV of Benefits to Buyers of Portable ACs, High Economic

Growth Scenario

TSL NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

Billion 2013$ Billion 2013$

Residential Commercial Total Residential Commercial Total

1 4.151 0.064 4.215 1.763 0.027 1.791

2 5.329 0.085 5.414 2.264 0.036 2.300

3 6.294 0.099 6.393 2.673 0.042 2.715

4 6.315 0.122 6.438 2.578 0.051 2.629

10D

- 3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR LOW ECON OMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

The following three tables present results of the NIA calculation using inputs from the AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario in the model simulation

. Table 10D

- 3.1 presents cumulative national primary energy savings under the low growth scenario for the four TSL s considered for portable ACs.

Table 10D

- 3.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

TSL Portable ACs in

Residential Sites, Primary Portable ACs in

Commercial Sites, Primary Portable ACs in

both sectors, Primary Quads Quads Quads

1 0.516 0.007 0.523

2 0.661 0.009 0.671

3 0.782 0.011 0.793

4 0.899 0.015 0.914

Table 10D

- 3.2 presents cumulative energy savings in terms of the full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) for the AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario.10D

- 5

Table 10D

- 3.2 Cumulative Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growt h Scenario

TSL Portable ACs in

Residential Sites Portable ACs in

Commercial Sites Portable ACs in

both sectors Quads Quads Quads

1 0.540 0.008 0.547

2 0.692 0.010 0.702

3 0.818 0.012 0.829

4 0.941 0.015 0.956

Table 10D

- 3.3 presents the cumulative NPV of monetary benefits to buyers of portable ACs under the AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario. Benefits are shown for di scount rates of both 3 percent and 7 percent.

Table 10D

- 3.3 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

TSL NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

Billion 2013$ Billion 2013$

Residential Commercial Total Residential Commercial Total

1 3.870 0.056 3.926 1.670 0.024 1.694

2 4.969 0.074 5.043 2.145 0.032 2.177

3 5.867 0.087 5.955 2.532 0.038 2.569

4 5.861 0.107 5.968 2.431 0.045 2.47710D

- 6

REFERENCE

1 U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

201 4 with Projections to 2040

. May 201 4

. Report Number: DOE/EIA

- 0383(201 4 )

. Washington, D

. C. (Last accessed September 12, 2014.)

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ >