10D-i

APPENDIX 10D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10D-1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10D-1

10D-2 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO. 10D-3

10D-3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO.. 10D-4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10D-2.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, High 

Economic Growth Scenario ...................................................................... 10D-3

Table 10D-2.2 Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ....................................................................................... 10D-3

Table 10D-2.3 Cumulative NPV of Benefits to Buyers of Portable ACs, High 

Economic Growth Scenario ...................................................................... 10D-4

Table 10D-3.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, Low 

Economic Growth Scenario ...................................................................... 10D-4

Table 10D-3.2 Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ....................................................................................... 10D-5

Table 10D-3.3 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ....................................................................................... 10D-5

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10D-1.1 Projections for Total Housing Stock under Three AEO 2014 Economic 

Growth Scenarios...................................................................................... 10D-1

Figure 10D-1.2 Projections for Average Residential Electricity Prices under Three 

AEO 2014 Economic Growth Scenarios .................................................. 10D-2

Figure 10D-1.3 Projections for Average Commercial Electricity Prices under Three 

AEO 2014 Economic Growth Scenarios .................................................. 10D-2
10D-1

APPENDIX 10D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS

10D-1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) 

results from operating the national impact analysis model using inputs from alternative economic 

growth scenarios. The results indicate the range in NES and NPV for the four trial standard 

levels (TSLs) for portable air conditioners (ACs). The alternative scenarios use the energy prices

and housing starts projected for the high and low economic growth cases in the Energy 

Information Administration's (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO 2014).

1 Figure 10D1.1 shows the projections for total housing stock under the three economic growth scenarios

considered in the AEO 2014. 

Figure 10D-1.1 Projections for Total Housing Stock under Three 

AEO 2014 Economic Growth Scenarios

Figure 10D-1.2 shows the projections for electricity prices for residential applications 

under the three economic growth scenarios. Figure 10D-1.3 shows the projections for electricity 

prices for commercial applications. AEO 2014 provides economic projections to 2040. To 

estimate the trend after 2040, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA provided to the Federal 

Energy Management Program, which called for extending the average rate of change for 

electricity prices during 2030–2040.

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Total Housing Stock (millions)

Reference High Low
10D-2

Figure 10D-1.2 Projections for Average Residential Electricity 

Prices under Three AEO 2014 Economic Growth 

Scenarios

Figure 10D-1.3 Projections for Average Commercial Electricity 

Prices under Three AEO 2014 Economic Growth 

Scenarios

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Electricity Price Trend (2012=100)

Residential Electricity Price Projection

Reference Case High Low

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Electricity Price Trend (2012=100)

Commercial Electricity Price Projection

Reference High Low
10D-3

10D-2 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

The results of running the NIA model for the AEO 2014 reference economic growth case 

are presented in chapter 10. The following three tables present results of the NIA calculation 

using inputs from the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario in the simulation. Table 10D2.1 presents cumulative national primary energy savings under the high growth scenario for the 

four TSLs considered for portable ACs.

Table 10D-2.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

Portable ACs in 

Residential Sites, 

Primary

Portable ACs in 

Commercial Sites, 

Primary

Portable ACs in 

both sectors, 

Primary

Quads Quads Quads

1 0.540 0.008 0.548

2 0.692 0.010 0.702

3 0.818 0.012 0.830

4 0.941 0.015 0.957

Table 10D-2.2 presents cumulative energy savings in terms of the full-fuel-cycle (FFC) 

for the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario.

Table 10D-2.2 Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

Portable ACs in 

Residential Sites

Portable ACs in 

Commercial Sites

Portable ACs in 

both sectors

Quads Quads Quads

1 0.565 0.008 0.573

2 0.724 0.010 0.735

3 0.856 0.012 0.869

4 0.985 0.016 1.001

Table 10D-2.3 presents the cumulative NPV of monetary benefits to buyers of portable 

ACs under the AEO 2014 high economic growth scenario. Benefits are shown for discount rates 

of both 3 percent and 7 percent.
10D-4

Table 10D-2.3 Cumulative NPV of Benefits to Buyers of Portable ACs, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

Billion 2013$ Billion 2013$

Residential Commercial Total Residential Commercial Total

1 4.151 0.064 4.215 1.763 0.027 1.791

2 5.329 0.085 5.414 2.264 0.036 2.300

3 6.294 0.099 6.393 2.673 0.042 2.715

4 6.315 0.122 6.438 2.578 0.051 2.629

10D-3 ANALYTICAL RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

The following three tables present results of the NIA calculation using inputs from the 

AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario in the model simulation. Table 10D-3.1 presents 

cumulative national primary energy savings under the low growth scenario for the four TSLs

considered for portable ACs.

Table 10D-3.1 Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

Portable ACs in 

Residential Sites, 

Primary

Portable ACs in 

Commercial Sites, 

Primary

Portable ACs in 

both sectors, 

Primary

Quads Quads Quads

1 0.516 0.007 0.523

2 0.661 0.009 0.671

3 0.782 0.011 0.793

4 0.899 0.015 0.914

Table 10D-3.2 presents cumulative energy savings in terms of the full-fuel-cycle (FFC) 

for the AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario.
10D-5

Table 10D-3.2 Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

Portable ACs in 

Residential Sites

Portable ACs in 

Commercial Sites

Portable ACs in 

both sectors

Quads Quads Quads

1 0.540 0.008 0.547

2 0.692 0.010 0.702

3 0.818 0.012 0.829

4 0.941 0.015 0.956

Table 10D-3.3 presents the cumulative NPV of monetary benefits to buyers of portable 

ACs under the AEO 2014 low economic growth scenario. Benefits are shown for discount rates 

of both 3 percent and 7 percent.

Table 10D-3.3 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

TSL

NPV @ 3% NPV @ 7%

Billion 2013$ Billion 2013$

Residential Commercial Total Residential Commercial Total

1 3.870 0.056 3.926 1.670 0.024 1.694

2 4.969 0.074 5.043 2.145 0.032 2.177

3 5.867 0.087 5.955 2.532 0.038 2.569

4 5.861 0.107 5.968 2.431 0.045 2.477
10D-6

REFERENCE

 

1 U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2014 with Projections to 2040. May 2014. Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2014).

Washington, D.C. (Last accessed September 12, 2014.) 

<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/>