Volume 213: The Seiches of Lake Erie 

Record-Low Lake Erie Levels at Toledo 

during December 2022 Seiche

Figure 1: Receded Lake Erie water level, PutIn-Bay, OH, during December 2022 seiche. Photo courtesy of Berni Steinbach, Put-in-Bay Daily, used 

with permission

Just before Christmas 2022, a powerful bomb 

cyclone overwhelmed the Midwest and Northeast 

with bitterly cold temperatures, heavy winds, and 

plentiful snowfall. Over the Lake Erie basin, this 

storm transformed into a combination of a lakeeffect snowstorm, ice storm and wind storm. 

During the morning of December 23rd, wind gusts 

reached 64.5 knots (74 mph) at Fairport, OH, 

which is a Category 1 hurricane wind speed. The 

wind chill plummeted to around -30 degrees 

Fahrenheit in the Cleveland area that day. Buffalo 

Airport received 22.3 inches of snow on December 

23rd, a daily snowfall record for that station, and 

received a total of 51.9 inches during the multi-day 

storm.

Moreover, this storm generated a seiche on Lake 

Erie that led to record-setting Lake Erie water 

levels at Toledo, OH. Seiches are temporary 

oscillations in water level initiated by storm 

activity moving across a lake. A seiche occurs 

when strong winds and rapid changes in 

atmospheric pressure push water from one end of 

a body of water to the other. This creates a large 

drop in water levels on one side of the body of 

water while levels increase on the opposite side, 

sometimes flooding shorelines. Seiches are 

analogous to the sloshing of water back and forth 

in a bathtub, swimming pool or a cup of liquid. 

The word seiche (pronounced saysh) is French, 

meaning "to sway back and forth". When the 

strong winds stop, the water sloshes back to the 

end it came from, often leading to a back-and-forth 

movement of water from one side of the lake to the 

other. 

Figure 2: Cross-Sectional Diagram of Seiche

The December 2022 seiche on Lake Erie pushed 

water from the shallow western basin adjacent to 

northwest Ohio to the deeper eastern basin near 

Buffalo, NY. The water level at Toledo dropped 10 

feet in a 16-hour time period on December 23rd. 

The level of the lake at Toledo bottomed out at 

561.63 ft, over a foot lower than the previous 

record-low of 562.82 ft observed on January 30th, 

2008. The massive drop on Lake Erie in its western 

Great Lakes

Update

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~ 

US Army Corps 

of Engineers® 

Detroit District 

-WindLake profile showing wind set-up 

Wind 

Set-up 
Vol. 213 Great Lakes Update November 2023 

Page 2

basin is illustrated in Figures 1 and 3. The 

photographer of Figure 3 indicated that the area in 

which the person is seen walking is usually under 

8 feet of water. 

Figure 3: Emptying of water around Gilbraltar 

Island, Put-In-Bay, OH, 12/23/2022. 

Photo Courtesy of Barry Koehler, used with permission

On the opposite end of the lake, the water level at 

Buffalo rose 8 feet in a 7-hour period on December 

23rd, reaching a hourly height of 579.73 ft. Seven 

feet of that rise occurred between 6 am and 9 am. 

The maximum difference between the water level 

at Toledo and the simultaneous level at Buffalo 

approached 17 feet in the afternoon of December 

23rd. 

Figure 4: Toledo & Buffalo Water Levels 

during the Lake Erie seiche of December 2022

In addition, in late fall and winter waves from 

seiches can toss large slabs of ice onshore while 

lake spray can coat lakeside homes and roads with 

thick layers of ice. Figures 5 and 6 shows this 

substantial ice coating took place in Hamburg, NY 

during this storm.

Figure 5: Lakeside restaurant in Hamburg, NY, 

coated in ice on 12/24/2022 and the restaurant 

in summer. 

Figure 6: Ice-coated lakeside homes, Hamburg, 

NY, December 24, 2022 

Photo courtesy of John Normile, Getty Images, used with 

permission

Why such extreme seiches on Lake Erie?

Records show that a seiches have occurred on all 

of the Great Lakes. However, Lake Erie is known 

for producing the most and largest seiches of the 

Great Lakes. The lake’s location, orientation, 

shape and bathymetry all contribute to the 

preponderous of seiche wave activity on the lake. 

"' 

580 

578 

S62 

Toledo vs Buffalo Water Levels during Dec 2022 Seiche 

560 ~---~----~---~----~---~ 

12/22/2022 12/23/2022 12/24/l022 12/lS/2022 12/26/2022 12/27/2022 

-+-Buffalo -+-Toledo 
Vol. 213 Great Lakes Update November 2023 

Page 3

Figure 7: Shape, Orientation, and Fetch Length 

of Lake Erie

Lake Erie’s shape is a long, narrow basin - 240 

miles long, but only 40 to 50 miles wide. Due to 

the long, narrow lake being oriented southwest to 

northeast, prevailing westerly winds traveling 

across the lake’s long stretch of open water can 

create increased wave action. This distance that 

wind can travel over open surface water is called 

the fetch length, shown in Figure 7. 

In addition, Lake Erie is situated in the track of 

many of the powerful storms that cross the 

continent each fall and winter. Most storms in the 

Great Lakes region move from west to east. Storms 

with heavy winds blowing southwest to northeast 

have the potential to produce high storm surges on 

the lake. Moreover, seiches are usually limited to 

partially or fully enclosed basins such as Lake 

Erie. The lake is shallow, shallowest of the Great 

Lakes, averaging 62 feet in depth. Lake Erie’s 

shallow western end accentuate any change in 

water level.

Stormy Weather Generates Seiches

Unlike tides, seiches do not occur at regular, 

predictable intervals. Storm activity, characterized 

by powerful winds and rapid atmospheric pressure 

changes, is the impetus for substantial seiches. A 

storm moving from west to east will result in low 

barometric pressure moving over the western end 

of the lake. Rapid changes in barometric pressure 

caused by the low pressure system also propel 

wind speed and strength even further. The late 

December 2022 seiche was jumpstarted by 20+ 

straight hours of 40 to 50 mph winds moving westnorthwest along the entire length of the lake

(Figure 8). 

Figure 8: Diagram of Wind Speed across Lake 

Erie on December 23rd, 2022, courtesy of

NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research 

Laboratory. 

Effects of Seiches

Seiches can cause considerable flooding and 

washing out of roads during the initial tilting of the 

lake, and when the water rushes back to the other 

side of the lake. Seiches have caused extensive 

erosion and sediment deposition. They can also 

impede commercial navigation. Strong rip 

currents often accompany a seiche, causing very 

sudden changes in water flow direction and 

movement of abnormal currents. These currents 

make it difficult to control ships. Many seiches 

force ships to wait or dock in a harbor until the 

seiche has finished and it is safe to depart. 

Moreover, when water empties from one side of 

the lake, water supply of some towns can be cutoff. 

When ice is present, it can pile up and cause 

additional damage to the shoreline. 

In addition, these abnormal currents along the 

shoreline and near in-water structures like piers 

make swimming extremely dangerous. Boats and 

2022 Dec 23 1 82 

" " 
Vol. 213 Great Lakes Update November 2023 

Page 4

docks that are tied up can become damaged when 

the rapid water level changes cause the boats to 

move around and bang against the docks. When 

the water comes sloshing back, boats can get 

inundated with water and can get lodged 

underneath docks. Waves can arrive suddenly and 

sweep fisherman off piers. 

Notable Lake Erie Seiches in History

October 1844 

The deadliest documented seiche took place in 

October 1844. A 22-foot seiche breached the 14-

foot-high seawall at Buffalo and drowned 78 

people. Hundreds of residential and commercial 

buildings were destroyed. Many houses in the 

lower part of the city were lifted from their 

foundations and moved. The Julia Palmer, a 

passenger ship carrying 400 people, was driven 

back into the Buffalo Bay after departing the 

previous evening. Many commercial and 

passenger vessels transiting the lake, Buffalo 

River, and Erie Canal were damaged and lifted 

onto land, with some loss of life as passengers and 

crew members were thrown overboard by the 

violent winds and waves. 

November 1972 Seiche

Another noteworthy seiche occurred from 

November 13th-16th, 1972. As stated earlier, 

storms usually move from west to east in the Great 

Lakes region. However, this seiche started with 

winds coming from the northeast on November 

13th. Toledo experienced 23-mph winds for over 

40 consecutive hours. Wind gusts reached as high 

as 40 mph (35 knots) at Cleveland and 69 mph (60 

knots) at Toledo. By the morning of November 14, 

winds had swollen the lake’s water level at Toledo, 

OH, almost 6 feet above the lake’s November 

average. At Buffalo, the lake dropped to more than 

8 feet below Toledo’s level, essentially tipping the 

lake towards Toledo. Waves soared as high as 12 

feet at Marblehead, OH. (From the 15th to the 

16th, there were four well-defined “waves” each 

sloshing 12 hours or so, as shown in Figure 9. This 

was the “sloshing period” of the seiche.)

Figure 9: Lake Erie Water Levels at Monroe, 

MI & Buffalo, NY during November 1972 

Seiche. 

The water piling up on the western side of Lake 

Erie devastated low lying areas (note the rise by 

three feet at Monroe and the sharp four-foot water 

level drop at Buffalo, NY in Figure 9). On the Ohio 

shore, widespread flooding occurred in Lucas, 

Ottawa, Erie, and Lorain Counties. The waves 

obliterated some houses, undermined the 

foundations of other houses so that they collapsed, 

and pushed other houses off their foundations.

Other homes were flooded with multiple feet of 

water and some roads were washed out. The 

governors of Ohio and Michigan activated rescue 

teams to evacuate residents in some counties 

bordering Lake Erie. Most of the 1,600 residents 

of the lakeside resort village of Luna Pier, MI, had 

to be evacuated. 

September 2009 Seiche

A recent significant seiche of note took place on 

September 29th, 2009. Sustained winds of up to 50 

mph pushed water out of Lake Erie’s shallow 

western basin, resulting in a water level drop of six 

to eight feet along the shallow shoreline of the 

western end of the lake — and an equal rise in 

water level 240 miles away in Buffalo, N.Y. 

Fem1i Power Plant (Monroe, MI) vs Buffalo, NY --Fenni 

Hourly Water Levels, 12-16NOV1972 --Buffalo 

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575 

574 .,, .!!! 00 573 ~9 

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569 

568 

11/ 12/72 11 / 13/72 11 /14/72 11/ 15/72 11 116/72 11 117172 
Vol. 213 Great Lakes Update November 2023 

Page 5

Figure 10: Boats resting on lake bottom in 

receded Lake Erie, Put-in-Bay, OH, September 

29th, 2009. 

Photo Courtesy of Jim Hebert, continuousWave.com

The considerable drop in water level left dozens of 

boats stuck in the clayey muck at marinas from 

Toledo, OH, to Port Clinton, OH (Figure 10). 

Some boats remained stuck in the muck even when 

the lake level rose again and were flooded with 

water.

November 2020 Seiche 

A line of thunderstorms produced a seiche on 15-

16 November 2020, in what may have been the 

largest seiche to impact Lake Erie prior to last 

December’s bomb cyclone. This was a period of 

near record-high water levels on Erie. The 

powerful winds sent a wall of water east-northeast 

over the long and narrow lake, rapidly raising 

water levels about 7 feet at Buffalo, while at the 

other end of the lake, the water levels at Toledo 

dropped nearly 7 feet. This resulted in a difference 

of over 13 feet from one end of the lake to the 

other. Water levels were even elevated in the 

middle perimeter of the lake, as Erie, PA, 

experienced near record-high water levels and 

significant lakeshore flooding. 34 people were 

evacuated by emergency units in suburban 

Millcreek Township. Presque Isle State Park 

suffered extensive erosion and sand dunes were 

blown onto roads. 

Summary

Seiches are initiated when strong, persistent winds

generated by fast-moving thunderstorms and large 

changes in barometric pressure, push water from 

one end of a lake to the other. Oscillations in water 

level occur after the winds have died. Lake Erie is 

known for its dramatic seiches, but there have been 

notable seiches on the other Lakes. On June 18th, 

1954, a 10-foot wave swept fisherman off 2 piers 

in Chicago, drowning 8. This seiche was created 

by a squall that began near La Crosse, WI. The 

storm swept over Lake Michigan and brought a 5-

foot wave to Michigan City, IN. This wave 

reflected back westward, racing toward Chicago. 

Today, fatal seiches are less common as more 

governmental entities have built greater sea walls, 

jetties, and breakwaters that act as buffers and 

energy dissipators. 

References

NOAA. What is a seiche? NOS website, 

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/eutrophication

.html, 1/20/23 

Brown, David (20 June 1990). "Lake Level Can 

Rise and Fall Suddenly". Port Clinton News 

Herald. 

Niziol, Tom. A Seiche Pushed a Wall of Water 

From One End of Lake Erie to the Other, 

https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/se

vere/news/2020-11-16-lake-erie-seiche-floodingbuffalo, 11/16/2020 

Associated Press (15 November 1972). 

“Thousands Flee as Storm Sweeps Great Lakes 

Area”. New York Times

Malloy, Jerry. The October Surprise of 1844, 

https://www.buffalohistorygazette.net/2010/09/th

e-lake-erie-seiche-disaster-of-1844.html, 

9/1/2010