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Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036) .............................................................................................. 1

Review of 2015 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................. 4

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... 5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 6

Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 7

U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9

Domestic Market................................................................................................................. 9

International Market ...........................................................................................................15

Cargo.................................................................................................................................19

General Aviation....................................................................................................................21

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................26

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30

Education, Outreach, and Research ..................................................................................30

Exemptions and Authorizations..........................................................................................30

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30

Commercial Forecast.........................................................................................................31

Commercial Space Transportation ........................................................................................34

Risks to the Forecast.............................................................................................................39

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................43

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................43

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................47

Enplanements....................................................................................................................47

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................48

Available Seat Mile ............................................................................................................48

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................49

Yield ..................................................................................................................................50

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................55

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................57
Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. 

commercial air carrier industry has been 

characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The 

volatility that was associated with these cycles was thought by many to be a structural 

feature of an industry that was capital intensive but cash poor. However the great recession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental 

change in the operations and finances of 

U.S Airlines. Air carriers fine-tuned their 

business models to minimize losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel 

efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that 

customers were willing to purchase and 

started charging separately for services that 

were historically bundled in the price of a 

ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with 

four major mergers in five years. These 

changes along with capacity discipline exhibited by carriers have resulted in a fifth 

consecutive year of profitability for the industry in 2015. Looking ahead there is optimism that the industry has been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to 

one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn since World War II 

and the slowest expansion in recent history, 

aviation will continue to grow over the long 

run. Fundamentally, over the medium and 

long term, demand for aviation is driven by 

economic activity. The 2016 FAA forecast 

calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over 

the next 20 years to average 2.1 percent 

per year, slightly faster than last year’s forecast. The sharp decline in the price of oil in 

2015 is a catalyst for a short lived uptick in 

passenger growth in 2016. Although oil 

prices are projected to fall to around $43 per 

barrel in 2016, our forecast assumes that 

they will rise thereafter to exceed $100 by 

2023 and $150 by the end of the forecast, 

keeping a lid on U.S. economic growth during the same period. There are a number of 

headwinds that are buffeting the global 

economy – the fall in oil prices, recession in 

Russia and Brazil and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies, a 

“hard landing” in China, and lack of further 

stimulus in the advanced economies. The 

uncertainty over the future course of oil 

prices is just one more item on the list. Although the U.S. economy has managed to 

avoid a recession, a prolonged period of 

faster economic growth (e.g. > 3%) may not 

be forthcoming.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.6 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.1 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow almost twice as fast at 3.5 

percent a year. U.S. carrier system capacity measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is 

forecast to grow in line with the increases in 

demand. The number of seats per aircraft 

is getting bigger, especially in the regional 

jet market, where we expect the number of 

50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful 

by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. and global economy continued to sputter in 2015, stable demand 

and lower energy prices resulted in record 

profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profitability should remain steady or increase as 

the recovery leads to strengthening demand 

1 
and increased revenues, while lower energy 

prices keep operating costs in check. Over 

the long term, we see a competitive and 

profitable aviation industry characterized by 

increasing demand for air travel and airfares 

growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting 

over the long term a growing U.S. economy.

The long term outlook for general aviation is 

favorable, led by gains in turbine aircraft 

activity. The active general aviation fleet is 

forecast to increase 0.2 percent a year between 2015 and 2036, equating to an absolute increase in the fleet of about 7,000 

units. While steady growth in both GDP and 

corporate profits results in continued growth 

of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston 

aircraft continues to shrink over the forecast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

projected to increase an average of 1.2 percent per year through 2036, as growth in 

turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours 

more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and 

business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased activity growth which has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at FAA and contract towers are 

forecast to increase 0.9 percent a year over 

the forecast period with commercial activity 

growing at five times the rate of noncommercial activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the 

primary driver. Large and medium hubs will 

see much faster increases than small and 

non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature of their operations.

2 
Review of 2015

Despite slow economic growth at home and 

abroad, 2015 was a pretty good year for 

U.S. aviation. Stable demand, falling yields, 

and falling costs added up to a year of record profits for the U.S. airline industry. The 

shift in focus from market share to boosting 

returns on invested capital has resulted in 

something the industry has rarely seen – 

sustained profitability. The U.S. airline industry has become more nimble in adjusting 

capacity to seize opportunities or minimize 

losses. U.S. airlines continue to refine strategies for developing additional revenue 

streams such as charging fees for services 

that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal 

service), as well as for charging for services 

that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these initiatives gives reason for 

optimism as the industry (passenger and 

cargo carriers combined) posted profits for 

the sixth consecutive year in 2015. 

Demand for air travel in 2015 grew at the 

fastest pace since 2007 despite modest 

economic growth in the U.S. In 2015 system revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 3.8 percent as enplanements increased at the same rate. Domestic RPMs 

were up 4.8 percent while enplanements 

were up by 4.2 percent. International RPMs 

increased by just 2.2 percent as enplanements, negatively impacted by the slowdown in China, recession in Brazil and Russia, and exchange rate fluctuations, increased only 1.6 percent. The system-wide 

load factor fell 0.1 points to 83.3 percent. 

Yields fell for the first time in five years. In 

domestic markets, falling oil prices and rapid expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such 

as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 1.6 percent 

decline. International yield fell 4.8 percent, 

impacted by weak demand and currency 

fluctuations. Despite falling yields U.S. airlines posted record profits in FY 2015 as 

falling energy prices more than offset revenue weakness from falling yields. Data for 

FY 2015 show that the reporting passenger 

carriers had a combined operating profit of 

$24.1 billion (compared to a $14.9 billion 

operating profit for FY 2014). The network 

carriers reported combined operating profits 

of $17.3 billion while the low cost carriers 

reported combined operating profits of $6.0 

billion, with all carriers posting profits.

The general aviation market showed continuing improvements in single engine piston 

and business jet segments, while declines 

in turboprop and multi-engine piston segments translated into a downturn in shipments. Overall deliveries were down by 3.1 

percent in calendar year (CY) 2015; even 

though U.S. billings increased 2.4 percent to 

$12.0 billion. General aviation activity at 

FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 

0.3 percent decline in 2015 as itinerant activity fell 0.7 percent, more than offsetting a 

0.1 percent increase in local operations.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers 

rose in 2015 by 0.2 percent, the first increase in activity since 2007. Air carrier activity increased by 5.7 percent, more than 

offsetting declines in the air taxi, general 

aviation, and military categories. Activity at 

large hubs rose by 0.7 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 0.6 percent. 

Small/non-hub airport activity was flat in 

2015 compared to the prior year.

3 
Glossary of Acronyms 

Acronym Term

ASMs Available Seat Miles

ATP Air Transport Pilot

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

COA Certificate of Operation Authorization

COE Certificate of Excellence

COMSTAC Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee

CY Calendar Year

ELI Elliptical Earth Orbit

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GSO Geosynchronous Orbit

ISS International Space Station

LEO Low Earth Orbit

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

MEO Medium Earth Orbit

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NGSO Non-Geosynchronous Orbit

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

USD United States Dollar

4 
Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

• Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

• Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Commercial Space Mary Carolyn Thies Becker (202) 267-8863

APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical 

publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov

5 
FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2016-2036

6 
Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects 

that world economic growth will remain subpar, below 3% a year for the next two years. 

While growth remains sluggish to steady for 

the United States and Europe, the rest of 

the world is struggling and will continue to 

do so. In the United States, consumer 

spending is solid, fueled by lower oil prices 

and steady job growth while in 2015 Europe 

saw its best performance since 2011 as 

central bank stimulus and low oil and commodity prices provided the basis for growth. 

Japan’s economy contracted in late 2015 

and shows few signs of robust recovery any 

time soon. In emerging markets, China is 

moving into a period of slower growth as 

2015 was the slowest year since 1990 as 

the economy begins the transition from an 

export and manufacturing based economy 

to one that is more oriented towards the 

service and technology sectors. In 2015 real 

GDP in India grew an impressive 7.5% but 

was lacking balance as exports and investment led while private consumption lagged. 

Other emerging markets such as Brazil and 

Russia were in recession in 2015 and are 

not expected to see growth until 2017. 

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP 

to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2016 

and 2036. Emerging markets are forecast 

to grow above the global average but at 

lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia 

(excluding Japan), led by India and China, 

is projected to have the fastest growth followed by Middle East and Africa, Latin 

America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in 

the more mature economies will be lower 

than the global trend with the fastest rates in 

the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Japan is projected to be very slow with rates 

below 1% a year reflecting deep structural 

issues associated with a shrinking and aging population.

7.5 6.8

2.4 1.5

0.5

-3.2 -4.0

2.4

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Annual Percent Change

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2015

India China U.S. Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia World

Source: IHS Global Insight

7 
Oil prices fell by 42% in 2015 to around $57 

per barrel and are projected to fall another 

24% in 2016 to $43 per barrel. However, 

the long run trend in oil prices is upward due 

to growing demand and higher costs of extraction, and IHS Global Insight forecasts 

the price of oil to reach $100 per barrel by 

2023 and continue to rise modestly thereafter to $152 by 2036.

0.8

1.5

2.3

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.8

5.0

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

Latin America

World

Asia ex China

M.E. & Africa

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2015 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2016-2036

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight

8 
U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, 

although regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in 

Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Twenty-nine all-cargo carriers were providing 

domestic and/or international air cargo service at the end of 2015. 

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) industry 

consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to external shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues.

The restructuring and consolidation of the 

U.S. airline industry that began in the aftermath of the terror attacks of September 11, 

2011 continued in 2015. American and US 

Airways combined their networks and reservations systems to form the world’s largest 

airline with the last U.S. Airways flight occurring in October 2015. Consequently, 

there are now only four dominant airlines in 

the U.S. – American, Delta, Southwest, and 

United – controlling approximately 70% of 

the domestic market as measured by revenue passenger miles. It is highly unlikely 

the U.S. Government will approve any fur1 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.

ther mergers among these four due to antitrust regulations. In 2005 there were twelve

major mainline airlines. 

The mergers and increasing market presence of low cost carriers like Frontier, JetBlue and Southwest have had clear implications on the fares, size of the aircraft being 

used and the load factors, topics that will be 

discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in 

domestic markets. Between 1978 and 

2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased 

at an average annual rate of 4 percent a 

year, recording only two years of decline. 

Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 

percent in FY 2002, following the events of 

September 11, 2001, growth resumed and 

by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent 

above the FY 2000 level. However, U.S. 

domestic ASMS are still down 1.2 percent 

when compared to 2007 as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices 

(up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and 

then the global recession that followed 

(2009 to the present). 2015 is the first year 

showing strong growth in ASMs (4.6 percent) since 2004.

The reduction in domestic capacity since 

2007 has not been shared equally between 

the mainline carriers and their regional 

counterparts. To better match demand to 

capacity, the mainline carriers contracted 

out “thin” routes to their regional counterparts because they could provide lift at a 

lower cost, or else they simply removed the 

capacity altogether. In 2015, the mainline 

9 

 
carrier group provided 0.9 percent less capacity than it did in 2007 (but carried 2.1

percent more passengers thus load factors 

increased). Capacity flown by the regional 

group has shrunk by 3.0 percent over the 

same period (with passengers carried down 

2.1 percent). 

The regional market has continued to shrink 

as the regionals compete for even fewer 

contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; this has meant slow growth in enplanements and yields.

543 572 623 658 706 765 829

153 154

168 177

190

206

223

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

2015E 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional

10
The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated contracts that are more favorable for 

their operational and financial bottom lines. 

Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing 

large pilot shortages and tighter regulations 

regarding pilot training. Their capital costs 

have increased in the short-term as they 

continue to replace their 50 seat regional 

jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. 

This move to the larger aircraft will prove 

beneficial in the future however since their 

unit costs are lower.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such 

as checked bags and on-board meals, and 

by adding new services such as boarding 

priority and internet access. As noted earlier, U.S. passenger carriers posted record

net profits for the sixth consecutive year in 

2015 with ancillary revenues a contributing 

factor to the favorable outcome as well as 

very low oil prices. Airlines are also increasingly experimenting with segmenting 

their cabins into more discreet cost categories based on comfort amenities like seat 

pitch, leg room, and access to social media 

and outlets.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of 

domestic departures continued the downward trend that started in 2008 while ASMs, 

14.7 14.4

16.4

18.4

19.8

21.0

22.5

12.3 12.0

13.7

15.4

16.5

17.5

18.7

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

 25.0

2015E 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals

11
RPMs and enplanements all showed a rebound; these trends underlie the expanding

size of aircraft and higher load factors.2

 In 

2015, the domestic load factor reached a 

historic high of 84.5 for commercial air carriers. It is presently assumed that the load 

factor will not exceed 86.5 in the future due 

to the logistical difficulties inherent in matching supply perfectly with demand. 

2 Commercial airlines encompass both mainline 

and regional carriers.

12

 
System, that is, the sum of domestic plus 

international capacity, increased 3.9 percent 

to 1.066 trillion ASMs in 2015 while RPMs 

increased 3.8 percent to 889.1 billion. During the same period system-wide enplanements increased 3.8 percent to 785.8 million. In 2015, U.S. carriers prioritized the 

domestic over the international market in 

terms of allocating capacity. It is forecast 

that this allocation will continue into 2016 

but carriers will start expanding capacity in 

the international market starting in 2017 and 

remain focused on that growth market 

through 2036 as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 5.1 percent in 2015 while regional carriers carried 1.1 percent fewer 

passengers. 

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements saw an increase for the fifth consecutive year, up 5.6 percent, marking the first 

time since 2000 that the industry recorded 

five consecutive years of passenger growth 

in the domestic market. Mainline passengers in international markets posted a sixth 

year of growth, up 2.4 percent. 

Even though the recession was officially 

over in June 2009, carriers continued to 

face demand uncertainty in 2015 as wages 

continued to stagnate, household income 

growth was weak, the housing market’s recovery was patchy across the country, and 

government spending at the federal and local levels remained stagnant and are pro-

 83.5

 84.0

 84.5

 85.0

 85.5

 86.0

 86.5

 87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2015E 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor

13
jected to remain so for the next few years. 

Despite these dire statistics, the unemployment rate fell and consumer spending was 

up and many urban housing markets have 

been revived strongly. In such an uneven, 

but slowly improving, environment, industry 

capacity growth was restrained (up 3.9 percent), after only a 2.3 percent increase in 

2014. Higher airfares and ancillary revenues, coupled with falling fuel prices resulted in U.S. carriers finishing up 2015 with a 

strong net profit.

System load factor and trip length remained 

flat in 2015, even as seats per aircraft mile 

increased by 2.4 percent; again reflecting 

the trend towards using larger aircraft. 

Seats per aircraft mile system wide increased to 149.1 seats (up 3.5 seats per 

aircraft mile), the highest level since 1994. 

14
International Market

The international market continues to be the 

growth segment for U.S. carriers when 

compared to the mature U.S. domestic market, especially since FY 2004. Last year, 

2015, was an exception to the trend and 

2016 is expected to follow suit as airlines 

continue to focus on the domestic market. 

Starting in 2017 the international market

(comprised of mainline and regional carriers) should again start outpacing the domestic market in terms of enplanements, 

RPMs and ASMs at an average annual rate 

(FY 2017-2036) of 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.5% 

respectively.

While the financial situation across the 

world has weakened somewhat, lower fares 

enabled by falling oil prices and more efficient aircraft has boosted demand; at least 

in the short term. It is possible that historically low oil prices signal further weakening 

in the global economy and thus, lower travel 

demand in the future.

 (15.0)

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market

15
The next five years will feature a rebuilding 

of international demand by the U.S. carriers 

with moderate growth averaging around 3.6, 

3.5, and 3.5 for enplanements, RPMs, and 

ASMs respectively. Airlines will exercise 

capacity restraint and the load factor is expected to stabilize around 81.8%. Load factors this high were last seen in 2013. 

 (20.0)

 (15.0)

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

 (20.0)

 (15.0)

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International

16
Overall however, U.S. carrier market share 

of international passengers has been dropping in all regions with the exception of the 

Caribbean, Oceania and Central America. It 

is expected that these trends will continue.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015E 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% of Market Share

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Enplanement Market Share by Region

Caribbean

Mexico

Central America

South America

All Countries

Canada

Africa

Europe

Asia

Oceania

Middle East

17
For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the 

largest international destination despite the 

recent economic and political crises of Brazil. While 2014 saw 7.5% growth, 2015 still 

showed a very robust 5.1% increase. In 

contrast, the Pacific region saw 0% enplanement growth and the Atlantic region 

saw a drop of 1.3%. It is expected that the 

Latin American market will continue to be 

the growth market for travel to and from the 

U.S.

Despite the economic powerhouses of China, Japan and South Korea, the Pacific region remains a relatively small market for 

the U.S. and will remain so for the next 

twenty years. While travel to the US will 

grow approximately 3.8% per year from 

2016-2036 for all carriers, the majority of 

travel demand in that region will be intraAsian. 

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are 

mature and will experience enplanement 

growth of 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively, on 

average over the twenty year period for all 

carriers. It is unclear at this time if the Syrian refugee crisis and terrorism threats will 

affect travel demand in 2016 and beyond. 

Despite the recent economic downturn in 

Latin America, it is still the largest driver of 

international demand to the U.S. Mexico, 

the most popular destination, is forecast to 

69 72 85 98 113 129 148

73 77

87

102

121

142

168

35 36

43

51

60

68

77

29 29

34

39

45

51

59

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2015 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

18
experience 4.2% annual growth from 2016-

2036 for all carriers whereas the entire region is forecast to grow 4.0% 

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand 

resulting from economic activity. Cargo 

moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft 

and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both 

scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes such as trucks, 

container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.9 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2015, up 2.2 percent from 

2014 with domestic cargo revenue ton miles 

(RTMs) increasing 3.3 percent to 13.1 billion 

while international RTMs increased by 1.6 

percent to 22.9 billion. Air cargo RTMs 

flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 78.1 

percent of total RTMs in 2015, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total 

RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 1.8 percent in 2015 while total 

RTMs flown by passenger carriers grew by 

3.6 percent. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can 

be divided into four components consisting 

of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ In 2015 total international RTMs increased 1.6 percent to 22.9 billion as growth 

in the Pacific region offset declines in the 

other three regions. 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, and globalization. Significant 

structural changes have occurred in the air 

cargo industry; among these are air cargo 

security regulations by the FAA and TSA, 

maturation of the domestic express market, 

a shift from air to other modes (especially 

truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) 

by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, 

and the increased use of mail substitutes 

(e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles 

(RTMs) are based on several assumptions 

specific to the cargo industry. First, security 

restrictions on air cargo transportation will 

remain in place. Second, most of the shift 

from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will 

be tied to economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on 

models that link cargo activity to GDP. 

Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were 

developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo 

RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, 

adjusted for inflation. The distribution of

RTMs between passenger and all-cargo 

carriers was forecast based on an analysis 

of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

After increasing by 2.2 percent in 2015, total 

RTMs are forecast to grow 4.5 percent in 

2016 and driven by steady U.S. and world 

economic growth, total RTMs are projected 

to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 

percent for the balance of the forecast period. 

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 

1.9 percent in 2016 as the U.S. economic 

recovery continues after posting a 3.3 increase in 2015. Between 2016 and 2036, 

domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.4 

19
percent. In 2015, all-cargo carriers carried 

89.2 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The 

all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.8 

percent by 2036 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs grew 1.6 percent 

in 2015 after posting a 0.3 percent increase 

in 2014 as stagnation in Europe and a 

slowdown in China’s economic growth 

slowed worldwide trade. Growth is expected to rebound in 2016 to 6.0 percent as 

global trade growth resumes. For the forecast period (2016-36) international cargo 

RTMs are forecast to increase an average 

of 4.7 percent a year based on projected 

growth in world GDP with the Pacific region 

having the fastest growth, followed by the 

Other International, Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively. 

The share of international cargo RTMs 

flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 

49.3 percent in 2000 to 71.8 percent in 

2015. Continuing the trend experienced 

over the past decade, the all-cargo share of 

international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 78.1 percent by 2036. 

20
General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from 

General Aviation Manufacturers Association 

(GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the 

fleet by aircraft categories, which are applied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The 

forecasts are carried out for “active aircraft,”3 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general 

aviation forecasts also rely on discussions 

with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including four Transportation 

Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business 

Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees 

conducted annually in May and January. 

The results of the 2014 GA Survey, the latest available, were consistent with the results of surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. 

The 2014 Survey recorded the first increase 

to the GA fleet since 2007, particularly since 

the implementation of 2010 Rule for ReRegistration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. The active GA fleet was estimated 

as 204,408 aircraft in 2014 (up 2.2 percent 

from 2013), with 23.3 million hours flown (up 

1.7 percent from 2013).

In 2015, the general aviation industry experienced its first decline in deliveries since 

3 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.

2010. While the single engine piston aircraft 

deliveries by U.S. manufacturers continued 

to grow and business jet deliveries recorded 

a very modest increase compared to the 

previous year, turboprop deliveries were 

down by 10 percent, and much smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries declined 40 percent. Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of 

general aviation aircraft delivered 1,581 aircraft in CY 2015, 3.1 percent fewer than CY 

2014. This was the first decline after four 

years of growth in shipments that showed 

first signs of slowing down in 2014. Single 

engine piston deliveries increased by 3.4 

percent in 2015, but the decrease in multiengine piston shipments caused a 0.6 percent decrease in overall piston airplane deliveries. In the turbine categories, turbojet 

deliveries were up by 0.8 percent. With the 

10.0 percent decline in turboprop deliveries, 

total turbine shipments went down by 5.3 

percent in 2015. 

21

 
GAMA and industry experts also reported 

significant decreases in rotorcraft deliveries 

in 2015, particularly resulting from direct 

and indirect effects of oil price declines.

Against these current conditions, the long 

term outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains favorable. 

The active general aviation fleet is projected 

to increase at an average annual rate of 

0.2 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 203,880 in 

2015 to 210,695 aircraft by 2036. The more 

expensive and sophisticated turbinepowered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow by 15,600 aircraft -- at an average rate of 2.1 percent a year over the 

forecast period, with the turbine jet portion 

increasing at 2.5 percent a year.

While steady growth in GDP and long term 

corporate profits impacts continued growth 

of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston 

aircraft is predicted to shrink over the forecast period by 17,500 aircraft (at an average 

annual rate of 0.6 percent).

On the other hand, currently the smallest 

category, light-sport-aircraft, which was created in 2005, is forecast to grow by 4.5 percent annually, adding about 3,900 new aircraft by 2036, nearly tripling its 2014 fleet 

size. 

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shipments Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)

22
Moderate fleet growth also impacts the 

number of general aviation hours flown, projected to increase an average of 1.2 percent 

per year through 2036. Following the decline in piston fleet, fixed wing piston hours 

are forecast to decrease by 0.6 percent. 

Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine 

aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to 

increase 2.6 percent yearly over the forecast period. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, with hours 

flown increasing at an average annual rate 

of 3.1 percent over the forecast period. The 

large increases in jet hours result mainly 

from the increasing size of the business jet 

fleet, along with continuing increase in utilization rates, as indicated by the GA Survey.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine Rotorcraft

LSA Experimental

23
Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, 

faces the challenges brought by lower oil 

prices. They impact utilization rates and 

new aircraft orders both directly through decreasing activity in oil exploration, and also 

through associated slowdown in related 

economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 2.5 percent annually over 

the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is 

forecasted to see an increase of 5.0 percent 

a year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots 

by certification categories, using the data 

compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center. There were 

590,039 active pilots certificated by FAA at 

the end of 2015. While private and commercial pilot categories kept their declining 

trends, student pilot certificates continued to 

increase. One regulatory change that affected the number of student pilot certificates was the 2010 rule that increased the 

duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 

months to 60 months. Since 2011, the student pilot numbers have been rising and 

reached 122,729 in 2015. 

Another change in the legislation impacted 

commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) 

certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal 

Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline 

pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate 

and mostly serving at Second in Command 

positions at the regional airlines could no 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental

24
longer operate with only a commercial pilot 

certificate after that date, and the FAA data 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates.

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease 

about 5,000 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over 

the forecast period, while the ATP category 

is forecast to increase by 13,600 (up 0.4 

percent annually). The student pilots are 

forecast to increase by 0.3 percent and 

much smaller category of sport pilots are 

predicted to increase by 4.8 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other 

hand, both private and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease by 0.6 

percent yearly until 2036. 

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Students Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Air Transport Pilots Rotorcraft only

25
FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the 

business aviation fleet will drive growth in 

operations at FAA facilities over the forecast 

period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers 

is forecast to increase at an average rate of

0.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. 

Commercial operations4

 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 

5 times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations 

is less than the growth in U.S. airline passenger traffic (1.5 percent vs 2.0 percent) 

over the forecast period due primarily to 

larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and 

higher load factors. Both of these trends 

allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more 

passengers without increasing the number 

of flights. General aviation operations 

(which accounted for 52% of operations in 

2015) are forecast to increase an average 

of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine 

powered activity more than offset declines 

in piston activity. 

4 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach 

Control) Operations5 are forecast to grow 

slightly faster than at towered facilities. This 

is in part a reflection of the different mix of 

activity at Tracons. Total operations are 

forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. 

Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations 

in 2015 and are projected to grow 1.5 percent a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over 

the forecast. 

Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is measured by the number of IFR aircraft handled. 

5 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in 

the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and 

VFR overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower 

Operations

Commercial Non Commercial

26

 

 
In 2015, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route 

Centers increased 1.4 percent, led by increases in the Air Carrier and General Aviation categories. Growth in airline traffic and 

business aviation is expected to lead to increases in activity at En-Route centers. 

Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at 

En-Route centers are forecast to increase at 

an average rate of 1.4 percent a year as 

increases in Air Carrier and General Aviation activity offset declines in Air Taxi activity. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast 

to grow much faster than activity at towered 

airports because more of the activity at EnRoute centers is from the faster growing 

commercial sector and high-end (mainly 

turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the 

general aviation activity at towered airports, 

which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

AC Handled (000)

Fiscal Year

En-Route Center 

Aircraft Handled

Commercial Non Commercial

27
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 6,871 

in 2015 to 8.414 in 2036, an average annual 

growth rate of 1.0 percent a year. Increased 

demand for air travel and growth in air cargo 

is expected to fuel increases in both the 

passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2015 and 2036 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast 

to grow from 3,946 to 5,339, an average of 

66 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at American and JetBlue) is 

projected to grow 51 aircraft a year as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the 

next generation MAX and Neo families. The 

wide-body fleet grows by an average of 15 

aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 

787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-

300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. 

passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases 

by 60 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,144 aircraft in 2015 to 1,961 in 

2036 as the fleet shrinks by 21 percent (448 

aircraft) between 2015 and 2022. Carriers 

remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older 

small turboprop and piston aircraft, while 

adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 

family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 

50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2036, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,786, up from 1,628 in 2015. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by two-thirds from 516 in 2015 to 175 

by 2036. These aircraft account for just 8.9 

percent of the fleet in 2036, down from 24.1 

percent in 2015. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 781 aircraft in 

2015 to 1,114 aircraft in 2036 driven by the 

growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body 

cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 2 

aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are converted from passenger use to cargo service. 

The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 14 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 

767-300, and 777-200 aircraft are added to 

the fleet, replacing older MD-11 and 767-

200 freighters. 

28
0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals

29
Unmanned Aircraft Systems

An Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) is the 

unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associated 

elements (including communication links 

and the components that control the unmanned aircraft) that are required for the 

safe and efficient operation of the unmanned aircraft in the national airspace system (NAS). The forecast will be driven by a 

combination of an improved regulatory environment and underlying demand. In 2015, 

unprecedented milestones were achieved 

for UAS. The FAA is continuing to enable 

this new thriving industry to flourish while 

maintaining safety.

Education, Outreach, and Research

The FAA is partnering with several industry 

associations for the “Know Before You Fly” 

educational campaign. This outreach promotes the safe and responsible use of unmanned aircraft as they become integrated 

into the NAS. The FAA also developed and 

made available an app, B4UFLY which provides UAS operators with pertinent airspace 

requirements and restrictions before operating.

Six FAA-selected UAS test site operators 

are providing information on system safety, 

data gathering, aircraft certification, command and control link issues, control station 

layout and certification, ground and airborne 

sense and avoid, and environmental impacts. In addition, a team led by Mississippi 

State University has been identified as the 

FAA's Center of Excellence for Unmanned 

Aircraft Systems (COE UAS). The COE will 

focus on research, education, and training 

in areas critical to safe and successful integration of UAS into the nation's airspace.

Exemptions and Authorizations

Section 333 of the FAA Modernization and 

Reform Act of 2012 grants the Secretary of 

Transportation the authority to determine 

whether an airworthiness certification is required for certain UAS to operate safely in 

the NAS. This determination is based on the 

size, weight, speed, and operational capabilities of the aircraft. Using the FAA’s exemption process, a safety evaluation is 

conducted, and appropriate conditions and 

limitations for the operation are imposed 

through each exemption granted. As of 

March 16, 2016, over 4,000 exemptions 

have been granted for commercial UAS operations in the United States under the Section 333 authority. This demonstrates considerable potential demand for UAS operations, in low-risk, controlled environments. 

In addition, commercial UAS operations 

must be conducted in accordance with a 

Certificate of Authorization or Waiver (COA) 

issued by the FAA Air Traffic Organization. 

The COA describes the specific operating 

areas approved for UAS operations and associated mitigations that help to ensure the 

safety of the NAS.

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast

In order to operate in the NAS, the FAA 

must ensure that aircraft operators are not 

only aware of the system in which they are 

operating, but that the agency also has a 

means to identify owners. One means to 

accomplish this is through aircraft registration and marking. On December 14, 2015, 

the FAA issued a rule requiring all UAS 

weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 

grams) and less than 55 pounds to be registered using a new on-line system (UAS 

weighing more than 55 pounds must be reg30
istered using the existing Aircraft Registration Process). This registration rule will aid 

in investigations and allow the FAA to gather data about UAS use. As of mid-March, 

2016 there have been over 408,000 registrations. 

As shown in the following table, a sales 

forecast was developed for the small UAS 

registration rule, which included very small 

units below the registration size cutoff of 

250 grams. For this interim final rule, in 

2016, we forecast 1.9 million potential annual sales and that number could increase 

to 4.3 million units sold annually by 2020. 

As shown in the first row of the table below, 

this would represent the upper bound of the 

potential number of small UAS operated as 

model or hobby aircraft. 

Sales Forecast Summary

Million sUAS Units

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Hobbyist (model aircraft) 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.3

Commercial (non-model aircraft) 0.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7

2.5 4.8 5.5 6.1 7.0

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding

Commercial Forecast

In 2015, in support of the small UAS registration rule, a sales forecast for commercial 

UAS was developed to derive the potential 

demand for the new on-line registration system. That forecast represents the high end 

of the small UAS commercial fleet. As 

summarized in the second row of the previous table, for 2016, the potential sales of 

commercial small UAS requiring registration 

was forecast to be over 600,000, growing to 

2.7 million by 2020.

On February 23, 2015, the FAA issued the 

Operation and Certification of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) proposing to 

amend its regulations to adopt specific rules 

for the operation of small UAS in the NAS. 

Over 4,600 public comments were submitted in response to the NPRM. The FAA expects to publish a final rule in late spring of 

2016. More information on the derivation 

and assumptions behind this forecast will be 

provided in the Regulatory Impact Assessment accompanying the final rule publication.

The FAA is working with the Teal Group 

Corporation, an industry expert in UAS forecasting, to develop a commercial forecast 

for small UAS operations described in the 

NPRM. The civil and commercial UAS market will take time to develop and the size of 

the market will directly relate to the specific 

requirements developed along with airspace 

accessibility. The Teal Group has provided 

the FAA with a forecast for small commercial unmanned aircraft. This forecast analyzes the market demand for different sectors within the regulatory environment. 

As shown in the graph below, it is expected 

that, once the final small UAS rule is implemented, two different categories of small 

UAS (sUAS) will emerge. Higher end sUAS 

will have an average sales price of $40,000 

per unit, while lower end units will have an 

average price of $2,500. Over a five year 

period, Teal Group forecasts the sUAS fleet 

to be approximately 542,500. 

31
Of this estimated fleet, it is expected that 

roughly 90% of the demand will satisfied by 

the lower end units. 

The number of small UAS forecasted is 

highly uncertain and is dependent on the 

regulatory structure ultimately adopted. 

Once a final rule for small UAS is published, 

they will become more commercially viable 

than they are today. The total fleet shown in 

the previous table is expected to satisfy the 

market for the top five industries that will 

employ the use of sUAS. 

 

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Higher end UAS 1,300 6,300 16,000 32,000 52,000

Lower end UAS 31,500 95,000 180,000 320,000 490,500

Total Fleet 32,800 101,300 196,000 352,000 542,500

32,800 

101,300 

196,000 

352,000 

542,500 

 -

 100,000

 200,000

 300,000

 400,000

 500,000

 600,000

sUAS Fleet

32
Looking beyond existing regulatory initiatives, FAA has developed the UAS Focus 

Area Pathfinders initiative. This initiative 

explores how UAS might be safely used in 

populated areas, how UAS flights outside 

the pilot's direct vision might allow greater 

UAS use in rural areas, and some of the 

command-and-control challenges of using 

UAS beyond visual line of sight in rural/isolated areas. The overall demand for 

commercial UAS will soar once regulations 

more easily enable beyond visual line of 

sight (BVLOS) operations and operations of 

multiple UA by a single pilot. Once a 

framework is enabled for BVLOS operations, the projected market sizes could be 

higher than the forecast

Venture capitalists are already investing 

considerable amounts of money into this 

emerging industry with the intention to build 

early market share in this technology. 

Manufacturers’ efforts are focused on building systems optimized for particular segments of the market. Unmanned aircraft 

systems will be the most dynamic growth 

sector within aviation. The FAA will continue to work with industry and stakeholders to 

safely integrate UAS into the NAS. 

Real Estate/ 

Aerial 

Photography 

22%

Insurance 

15%

Agriculture

19%

Industrial 

Inspection

42%

Government 

2%

Top Five sUAS Markets

33
Commercial Space Transportation

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office 

of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA 

AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 

have prepared forecasts of global demand 

for commercial space launches in 2015 

through 2024. 

The 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report (the Report) is in two 

sections:

1) The COMSTAC 2015 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Forecast, which projects demand 

for commercial satellites that operate in 

GSO and the resulting commercial 

launch demand to GSO. As a result of 

the realignment of issuances dates of 

the Report, this year’s GSO Launch 

Demand Forecast only considers the 

three-year outlook; and

2) The FAA’s 2015 Commercial Space 

Transportation Forecast for NonGeosynchronous Orbits (NGSO),which 

projects commercial launch demand for 

satellites to NGSO, such as low Earth 

orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), 

elliptical (ELI) orbits, and external (EXT) 

trajectories beyond orbits around the 

Earth.

Report projects an average of 17 commercial GSO launches for 2015 through 2017 

and 13.1 NGSO launches for 2014 through 

2013. The chart below shows the combined 

GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and 

Launch Forecast. It reflects the three year 

GSO forecast outlook. The table below 

shows the number of GSO and NGSO payloads and launches projected from 2015 

and 2024.

It is important to distinguish between forecast demand and the number of satellites 

actually launched. Launch vehicle and satellite programs are complex, and susceptible to delays, which generally makes the 

forecast demand for launches the upper limit of actual launches in the near-term forecast. 

34
Combined 2015 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts

Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total Avg.

Payloads

GSO Forecast 

(COMSTAC) 24 25 26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 25.0*

NGSO Forecast (FAA) 65 136 151 104 92 92 87 86 87 86 986 98.6

Total Payloads 89 161 177 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Launches

GSO Med-to-Heavy 16 17 18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

NGSO Med-to-Heavy 13 17 15 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 119 11.9

NGSO Small 1 2 4 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 12 1.2

Total Launches 30 36 37 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

35
The GSO market remains stable with a projected demand of 25 satellites per year for 

the period 2015-2017, up from last year’s 

average for 22.3 for the period 2014-2016. 

The chart below shows the 2015 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. 

Thirty-nine percent of GSO satellites projected to launch from 2015-2017 are in the 

heaviest mass class (above 5,400 kg). At 

the same time, seven percent of the satellites in the same period are in the lowest 

mass class (below 2,500 kg). In 2015, unaddressable launches remained at the 

comparably high level – launch contracts 

that were not open to international (including U.S.) competition – as Chinese and 

Russian government-owned aerospace 

companies routinely package satellites, 

launches, and financing together. The satellite services market is generally robust, 

and new launch vehicle options will affect 

the dynamics of the launch industry. Operators are cautious about the impact of the 

economy on their plans but are generally 

satisfied with satellite and launch vehicle 

offerings.

2015 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast

36
Projected NGSO Launches from 2015-2024

The demand for commercial NGSO launches is expected to be at a comparably high 

level as major NGSO telecommunication 

constellations are replenished and National 

Aeronautics and Space Administration 

(NASA) International Space Station (ISS) 

commercial crew and cargo resupply missions become more regular. The annual 

average of NGSO commercial launches is 

expected to grow from an annual average of 

seven launches a year over the last ten 

years to about 11.9 launches annually. 

From 2015-2024, 986 payloads are projected to launch commercially, driving only 131 

launches with multi-manifesting, reflecting 

an industry planning to launch more microand small-class payloads in clusters, instead of increasing the demand for individual launches. The chart above shows the 

projected NGSO launches for the next ten 

years. The launches in the next ten years 

are predominantly commercial launches to 

the International Space Station, which require medium-to-heavy vehicles. Ninetyone percent of all commercial NGSO 

launches during the forecast period will 

launch on medium-to-heavy vehicles. The 

relatively higher number of small launches 

is due to Skybox Imaging’s plans to use 

Minotaur C to deploy its constellation and 

the first test flights of four newly developed 

commercial small launch vehicles in 2015-

2017, to be introduced for commercial 

launch services in the following years. 

From 2015-2018 the Report forecasts a 

number of small commercial satellites to be 

launched as Iridium, ORBCOMM, Planet 

Labs, and Skybox all deploy their constellations. The number of these multimanifested satellites drops off towards the 

end of the forecast, but the number of 

launches remains relatively steady as NASA 

begins its commercial crew program.

37
For the full study, please visit: 

https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/Commercial_Space_Trans

portation_Forecasts_2015.pdf

38
Risks to the Forecast

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models 

built on forecasts of economic activity. 

There are many assumptions in both the 

economic forecasts and in the FAA models 

that could impact the degree to which these 

forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast 

is driven, at least in the short-term, by a 

number of factors including the strength of 

the economic recovery and any impact resulting from the U.S. government fiscal situation. Also, as numerous incidents in the 

past few years (like the downing of a Russian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) remind us, terrorism remains among the 

greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation would have an 

immediate and significant impact on the 

demand for aviation services that would be 

greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity. 

Although oil prices remained below $60 per 

barrel for most of 2015, the recent volatility 

reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices. 

The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from 

economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s December 2015 U.S. macro forecast 

and 30-Year Focus released during the 

fourth quarter of 2015) calls for a decline in 

oil prices in 2016 to $43 per barrel and then 

rising steadily thereafter, exceeding $75 by 

2020, $125 by 2025, and reaches $152 per 

barrel by the end of the forecast period in 

2036. Some forecasters are calling for a 

more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In 

January 2016, the World Bank released its 

latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to fall to $34 per barrel in 2016, remaining below $60 until 2021, 

and only exceeding $80 per barrel by 2025. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also 

sees oil price increasing at a more moderate rate than the FAA’s base forecast, as its 

January 2016 forecast called for oil prices 

increasing from $35 per barrel in 2016 to 

only $50.50 per barrel by 2021. Over the 

long run, lower oil prices give consumers an 

impetus for additional spending, including 

air travel, and should enhance industry profitability.

The baseline forecast assumes that global 

economic growth will accelerate after 2016, 

but weakness in certain areas may threaten 

the strength and sustainability of the expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that 

China and India will be growth engines for 

emerging economies as China successfully 

transitions the economy from reliance on 

heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its 

economy more competitive. While economic 

growth appears to be holding up in the U.S., 

there are concerns about the strength of 

demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems 

(high debt, slow population growth, weak 

public finances for example). Furthermore, 

the steps that were taken to stabilize the 

global economy during the Great Recession 

have resulted in additional distortions and 

imbalances. There are concerns that central banks may not raise interest rates in 

time to contain asset bubbles and inflationary expectations. In advanced economies, 

governments need to shore up their finances by constraining spending and raising 

taxes. Given the discomfort many policy 

makers feel about the measures adopted to 

39
combat the Great Recession and uncertainty about the advanced economies’ prospects, there is considerable risk that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary 

steps. The current forecasts assume strong 

passenger growth for travel between the 

United States and other world regions. Any 

slowing of worldwide economic activity 

could seriously inhibit the growth in global 

passenger demand.

With the merger of American Airlines and 

US Airways completed, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. 

Based on FY 2015 data, the Big 3 (American, Delta, and United) plus Southwest accounted for more than 76% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. Of the 

network carriers, only Alaska remains independent, although it does have code share 

agreements with both American and Delta. 

There appears to be little appetite for further 

consolidation as there are significant obstacles. For many low cost carriers, the sheer 

size of merger transactions or the amount of 

financial risk associated with a merger 

makes further merger activity unlikely. For 

the network carriers, regulatory authorities 

are increasing their scrutiny over carrier 

practices (e.g. Department of Justice investigation into impacts of “capacity discipline” 

on pricing) suggesting and any future proposed merger will face a less receptive audience than in the past decade. 

However, U.S. airlines continue to explore 

other options including global alliances. 

Many of the major carriers in the U.S. are 

members of global alliances that operate 

with some measure of anti-trust immunity 

from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for airline operators 

across borders, it may create an anticompetitive environment in the marketplace. 

These market consolidating vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, 

may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If 

such oversights are launched in the future, 

this will complicate the evolving structure of 

the airline industry and may impact demand 

via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. 

However, network carrier consolidation and 

new rules on pilot training have left regional 

carriers saddled with either excess capacity

or a lack of pilots. Although air travel demand continues to recover, the bankruptcy 

filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 

is a reminder that financial pressures on 

regional operators have not abated. Network carriers continue to make adjustments 

to the size and breadth of their networks, 

without providing opportunities for regional 

carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline 

service. Delta is well along in its plans to 

reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet 

fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring 

its total to just 125, down from almost 500 at 

the end of 2009. United has reduced the 

number of small regional jets flown by its 

partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 

242 by the end of 2015 with a target of 100 

by 2019. It is adding 85 Embraer 175’s to 

its partners’ regional fleet to partially replace 

the reduction in small jet flying. Meanwhile 

the new American Airways is planning to 

reduce its small regional jet fleet by 29 aircraft in 2016, after removing 31 in 2015. At 

the same time the carrier plans to add 49 

larger regional jets to its fleet in 2016. 

While these actions may provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so 

40
far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation have seen a partial recovery during the 

past five years. The pace of the recovery in 

business and corporate aviation is largely 

based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could 

pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not 

limited to these factors. Public perception of 

business and corporate aviation, potential 

environmental regulations and taxes, along 

with increased security measures placed on 

business jets, will place downward pressure 

on the forecast. On the other hand, while 

corporate profits are currently high, perceived economic and political uncertainties

are causing companies to postpone their 

purchase of new business aircraft. Translation of this pent-up demand into sales of 

business jets in the near future can create 

an upward impact on the forecast. The impact of fuel price decline on business aircraft demand is also uncertain. While a 

positive effect on corporate profits will increase the demand, revenue losses resulting from low fuel prices may move the demand in the other direction. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new entrant manufacturers, 

serve to broaden the potential of the industry. The potential easing of regulations on 

the use of airspace in foreign countries

would offer promising scenarios for business jet manufacturers. Raising the level of 

security restrictions, and the subsequent 

travel hassles placed on airline passengers, 

could make corporate jet travel look increasingly appealing. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating 

at most large hubs expected to increase 

over the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is changing for this same period. The 

expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will increase 

the impact on the national airspace system 

and make the FAA’s job more challenging. 

This change in the mix of aircraft will impact 

workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation services projected over 

the forecast period. 

While overall activity at FAA and contract 

towers increased 0.2 percent in 2015, activity at the Core 30 airports increased 0.7 percent in 2015 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. FAA 

forecasts operations at these airports to 

grow substantially faster than the overall 

national trend. As demand recovers and 

workload increases, congestion and delays 

could become a critical limit to growth over 

the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both 

demand and operations are unconstrained 

in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected 

levels of activity. Should the infrastructure 

be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations would 

not be achieved. 

There are concerns that aviation’s impact 

on the environment could potentially restrict 

the ability of the aviation sector to grow to 

meet national economic and mobility needs. 

Airport expansion or new construction is 

often a contentious issue because of noise, 

air quality, and water quality concerns. 

There is also an ongoing effort to address 

the climate impacts of aviation. Aviation 

currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of 

global carbon emissions, but this percentage is expected to increase with the growth 

41
in operations unless mitigated with new 

technologies and standards, renewable 

fuels, operational improvements and potentially as a gap filler, market based 

measures. While certain measures to address climate impacts can result in reduced 

costs, such as increased fuel efficiency, 

other measures, such as market instruments could pose additional constraints on 

growth. Energy concerns are also rising, 

driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and 

security issues, and concerns about fossil 

fuel emissions contributing to global climate 

change. Lack of progress in improving the 

environmental and energy outlook for the 

future fleet may result in more access restrictions or operating limitations on the fleet 

in service which in turn may depress 

growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable fuels could reduce environmental 

and energy constraints on the forecast, and 

enable sustainable growth. 

42
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has 

increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the 

future, the FAA has provides alternative 

scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline 

traffic and capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro 

Baselines were used. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumptions from IHS 

Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

January 2016 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were used were used. Inputs from 

these alternative scenarios were used to 

create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, 

and yield forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative 

scenarios use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trading Partner and Minor Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to 

create a high and low case. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the 

current downturn and experiences very low 

oil prices in the short term, suffers no major 

swings in macro-economic policy, or financial sector collapses.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS 

Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees improved business 

confidence leading to renewed vigor in the 

labor market, consumer spending, and sustained improvements in the housing sector 

as well as sustained low consumer prices, 

higher real personal consumption expenditure, relatively low Brent crude prices, and a 

high GDP. Furthermore, in the optimistic 

case, it is assumed that fiscal deficits will 

diminish substantially in North America, 

Western Europe, and Japan. In this scenario real personal consumption expenditure

(PCE) per capita growth averages 0.4 percentage points faster per year than the 

baseline forecast6 and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal year basis 

than the baseline.7

 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario; in 

this forecast, the same assumptions apply 

as in the optimistic case, only the U.S. 

economy recovers at a much slower pace 

and the prices of Brent crude rise higher 

than in the base case. Moreover, the Eurozone’s recovery will stall and growth in 

emerging markets will be less robust. Lastly, real PCE per capita grows 0.4 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is

7 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as an input 

variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements. 

43

 
0.35 points higher on an annual basis than 

in the baseline.

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

321 324 

334 

345 

355 

364 

372 

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

 290

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

2015 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Anunal Percent Change

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

All scenarios Annual Percent Change

Source: IHS Global Insight

44
The price of energy is one of the critical 

drivers in the growth of consumer prices 

over the forecast period. In the optimistic 

case, energy prices, wages, and import 

prices grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimistic case the opposite 

occurs with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to 

the baseline. 

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

 6.0

 6.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

% of Population Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

 -

 50

 100

 150

 200

 250

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

45
 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

BLS Index Units*

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00

Source: IHS Global Insight

46
Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average 

annual rate of 2.2 percent a year over the 

forecast horizon of 2016-2036 (with domestic and international passengers up 2.0 and

3.6 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow 

at a quicker pace, averaging 2.7 percent per 

year (up 2.6 percent domestically and 3.6

percent internationally). This scenario is 

marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. 

By the end of the forecast period in 2036,

system passengers in the optimistic case 

are 10.7 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 132 million than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened consumer confidence 

brought on by persistent unemployment, low 

consumer demand, and higher inflation. In 

this scenario enplanements grow an average of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up

1.4 percent and international up 3.6 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2036 are 9.8 percent below the 

baseline case, totaling 1.1 billion, 121 million fewer than in the baseline.

 (0.5)

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

47
Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2016-2036), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 

3.5 percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 2.8 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.5 and

3.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.1

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.4 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.5 percent annually.

Available Seat Mile

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 2.5 percent 

annually over the forecast horizon with 

growth averaging 2.1 percent annually in 

domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in 

international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a 

faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.9 percent annually system-wide

(up 2.7 percent domestically and up 3.4

percent internationally). Carriers increase

capacity compared to the baseline forecast 

to accommodate increased travel demand 

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

48
brought about by a more favorable economic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus system 

capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 percent annually (domestic growth of 1.5 percent annually and international up 3.4 percent annually). 

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three 

forecast scenarios. In the base case and in 

the optimistic scenario, system load factor 

rises from 84.2 percent in 2016 to 84.7 percent and 84.9 in 2036, respectively.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 85.1 percent to 86.5

percent in all scenarios. 

The international load factor forecast is 

slightly different in the three scenarios, reflecting in part the relative growth in demand 

and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, 

and Pacific) international regions under 

each scenario.

In the base case, international load factor is 

relatively steady, going from 81.9 percent in 

2016 to 81.7 percent in 2036, the same load 

factor in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

49
Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.9 percent annually, going 

from 13.98 cents in 2016 to 21.17 cents in

2036. In domestic markets, yield in the 

baseline forecast rises from 14.12 cents in

2016 to 22.06 cents in 2036, while international yield rises from 13.66 cents in 2016 to 

19.50 cents in 2036.

System yield rises more slowly in the optimistic case, up 1.8 percent annually to be

20.68 cents at the end of the forecast period. Domestic yield increases to 21.24 cents

while international yield increases to 19.50

cents. The slower growth in yield in the 

high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable 

fuel prices, and lower inflation. Increased 

competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market, fares are driven 

lower than baseline levels due to increased 

levels of competition between low cost and 

legacy carriers. In the international market, 

increased competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on fares.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing 

an average of 2.5 percent annually, reaching 24.18 cents by 2036 (26.98 cents domestically and 19.52 cents internationally). 

This scenario reflects higher general inflation and higher energy prices than in the 

baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in 

order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital.

50
TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2015E 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2015-16 2016-21 2016-26 2016-31 2016-36

EconomicAssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 34,674 35,169 36,970 39,771 42,326 45,011 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%Expenditure per Capita Baseline 34,674 35,433 39,056 41,912 45,444 49,429 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%(2009 $) Optimistic 34,674 35,356 40,120 44,200 48,792 53,751 2.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 57 35 94 147 172 206 -38.7% 22.1% 15.5% 11.3% 9.3%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 57 43 83 129 139 152 -23.9% 13.9% 11.6% 8.1% 6.5%

Optimistic 57 47 73 118 119 124 -16.3% 8.9% 9.5% 6.3% 4.9%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.7 0.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4%

All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%

Optimistic 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 1.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 5.5 5.2 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.5 -4.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3%(%) Baseline 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 -9.4% -0.8% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2%

Optimistic 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 -10.4% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8% -0.5%

Source: IHS Global Insight

51
TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2015E 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2015-16 2016-21 2016-26 2016-31 2016-36

System 

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,066 1,094 1,186 1,337 1,499 1,674 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

(BIL) Baseline 1,066 1,094 1,252 1,401 1,591 1,806 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Optimistic 1,066 1,094 1,289 1,475 1,702 1,952 2.6% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 889 921 1,002 1,131 1,269 1,416 3.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%(BIL) Baseline 889 921 1,058 1,186 1,348 1,531 3.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Optimistic 889 921 1,090 1,250 1,444 1,657 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%

Enplanements Pessimistic 786 819 854 938 1,026 1,119 4.2% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%(MIL) Baseline 786 819 916 998 1,111 1,240 4.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

Optimistic 786 819 951 1,067 1,213 1,372 4.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,152 7,282 7,578 8,334 9,135 9,982 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

(MIL) Baseline 7,152 7,282 8,065 8,795 9,787 10,907 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 7,152 7,282 8,340 9,329 10,570 11,919 1.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,913 8,874 9,024 9,648 10,182 10,740 -0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%

(000s) Baseline 8,913 8,943 9,683 10,275 11,047 11,939 0.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%

Optimistic 8,913 8,972 10,029 10,994 12,062 13,205 0.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.36 13.71 16.41 18.91 21.36 24.18 -4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9%

(cents) Baseline 14.36 13.98 16.05 18.07 19.53 21.17 -2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1%

Optimistic 14.36 14.14 15.86 17.94 19.20 20.68 -1.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9%

* Includes domestic and international activity.

52
TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2015E 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2015-16 2016-21 2016-26 2016-31 2016-36

Domestic

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 744 769 788 863 942 1,023 3.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%

(BIL) Baseline 744 769 854 927 1,033 1,156 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1%

Optimistic 744 769 892 1,001 1,143 1,301 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 629 654 676 743 813 885 4.1% 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%(BIL) Baseline 629 654 733 798 892 999 4.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

Optimistic 629 654 765 862 987 1,125 4.1% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%

Enplanements Pessimistic 696 726 741 803 867 931 4.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%(MIL) Baseline 696 726 803 863 951 1,052 4.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

Optimistic 696 726 838 931 1,053 1,183 4.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,655 5,774 5,753 6,171 6,608 7,059 2.1% -0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%(MIL) Baseline 5,655 5,774 6,237 6,629 7,256 7,978 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

Optimistic 5,655 5,774 6,510 7,160 8,034 8,983 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,273 8,221 8,251 8,742 9,126 9,512 -0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

(000s) Baseline 8,273 8,289 8,906 9,365 9,986 10,703 0.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%

Optimistic 8,273 8,319 9,250 10,079 10,994 11,960 0.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.44 13.73 17.08 20.16 23.27 26.98 -5.0% 4.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4%

(cents) Baseline 14.44 14.12 16.52 18.83 20.35 22.06 -2.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3%

Optimistic 14.44 14.34 16.23 18.59 19.79 21.24 -0.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0%

53
TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2015-2036

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2015E 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2015-16 2016-21 2016-26 2016-31 2016-36

International

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 323 325 397 474 558 650 0.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

(BIL) Baseline 323 325 398 474 558 650 0.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

Optimistic 323 325 398 474 558 651 0.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 260 266 325 388 456 531 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

(BIL) Baseline 260 266 325 388 456 532 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

Optimistic 260 266 325 388 456 532 2.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5%

Enplanements Pessimistic 89 93 113 135 160 188 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%

(MIL) Baseline 89 93 113 135 160 188 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%

Optimistic 89 93 113 135 160 189 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1497 1508 1826 2163 2527 2923 0.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%

(MIL) Baseline 1497 1508 1829 2166 2531 2929 0.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%

Optimistic 1497 1508 1830 2169 2536 2936 0.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 640 654 772 906 1056 1228 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

(000s) Baseline 640 654 777 910 1062 1236 2.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 640 654 779 915 1069 1245 2.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.16 13.66 15.01 16.51 17.95 19.52 -3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

(cents) Baseline 14.16 13.66 15.01 16.50 17.95 19.50 -3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Optimistic 14.16 13.66 15.01 16.50 17.94 19.50 -3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.

54
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of 

uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment 

and reliance on industry knowledge and the 

forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. 

Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to 

build forecast models that give a consistent 

and predictable pattern of results. Analysts 

relying on the forecasts produced by the 

models would then be able to adjust for the 

predictable variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the 

variance from historical results for a primary 

forecast assumption along with five key 

forecast metrics during the FY 2005-2015 

forecast period. Although this period has 

experienced industry upheaval, the FAA’s 

forecast methodology remained consistent 

during this time. For this reason, inclusion 

of prior periods in an analysis of forecast 

variance might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of 

FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. 

GDP. Each metric has five values showing 

the relative forecast variance by the number 

of years in advance the preparation of the 

forecast took place. For example, the “3 

Years” column for ASMs shows that the 

mean absolute percent error was 6.9 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in 

advance. For the period under examination, 

preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005 

through FY 2015 occurred in FY 2001 

through FY 2014. 8

 

8 It should be noted that the first forecasted year 

for each respective fiscal year is that very same 

year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 

2005. 

55

 
 

Presenting forecast variances from actual 

data in such a manner simplifies a review of 

longer-term trends. Typically, one would 

expect the variances to de-crease as the 

forecast year is closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of 

changes in the relative variances by time 

horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in 

accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, 

are similar to the variances of the key traffic 

measures, Passenger Enplanements and 

RPMs. This suggests that a substantial 

amount of the forecast variance for the traffic variables may be attributed to the forecast error in the exogenous variables. Second, all the metrics examined show increasing variances as the forecast time horizon 

lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR 

handled aircraft up to 3 years out is more 

than 1.5 percentage points larger than the 

ASM forecast variance. This suggests that 

within a 3 year forecast horizon carriers 

have been able to accommodate changes in 

capacity by means other than adjusting operations. Many carriers have been systematically reducing the number smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with 

larger 70-90 seat aircraft. This has allowed 

carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. However the forecast variance in these two metrics narrows as the 

time horizon increases suggesting that over 

the long run ASM growth is a good indicator 

of operations growth.

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2005 - FY 2015)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 2.0% 3.4% 5.3% 7.1% 8.3%

ASMs 0.8% 3.8% 6.9% 10.4% 15.8%

RPMs 1.1% 3.0% 5.5% 8.0% 11.7%

Passenger Enplanements 1.0% 2.7% 5.4% 7.8% 11.6%

Mainline Domestic Yield 3.4% 4.7% 6.4% 8.1% 10.4%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.2% 5.5% 8.4% 11.5% 15.9%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

56
Appendix C: Forecast Tables

57
TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2015 FISCAL YEAR 2016 FISCAL YEAR 2017

VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2009 $) 34,440 34,533 34,767 34,956 35,145 35,323 35,520 35,741 35,954 36,182 36,399 36,589Annual rate - not seasonally adjusted 1.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars per barrel) 73.78 48.01 57.43 47.61 38.11 37.70 43.05 53.75 55.79 53.36 57.32 62.98Annual rate - not seasonally adjusted -82.1% 104.8% -52.8% -58.9% -4.2% 70.1% 143.0% 16.0% -16.3% 33.2% 45.7%Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 237.0 235.2 236.9 237.9 237.7 237.5 238.8 241.6 243.4 244.3 246.2 248.2Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate -3.1% 3.0% 1.6% -0.3% -0.3% 2.3% 4.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3.1% 3.3%Source: IHS Global Insight

58
TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION CONSUMER PRICE

REFINERS' ACQUISITION 

COST

FISCAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA INDEX AVERAGEYEAR (Billions 2009 $) (2009 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)

Historical

2001 12,676 29,227 1.76 25.80

2008 14,934 33,049 2.14 101.522009 14,428 32,098 2.14 54.68

2010 14,685 32,186 2.17 74.61

2011 14,958 32,787 2.23 96.00

2012 15,306 33,033 2.29 102.812013 15,489 33,269 2.32 100.782014 15,864 33,837 2.36 97.79

2015E 16,270 34,674 2.37 56.71

Forecast

2016 16,675 35,433 2.39 43.15

2017 17,184 36,282 2.46 57.36

2018 17,648 37,068 2.52 62.45

2019 18,099 37,825 2.58 69.03

2020 18,567 38,464 2.64 75.69

2021 18,983 39,056 2.70 82.62

2022 19,391 39,636 2.78 92.31

2023 19,809 40,172 2.85 105.162024 20,246 40,723 2.93 116.802025 20,682 41,306 3.00 124.412026 21,124 41,912 3.07 128.982027 21,588 42,520 3.14 132.312028 22,055 43,226 3.21 134.912029 22,541 43,963 3.28 136.392030 23,033 44,692 3.36 137.572031 23,531 45,444 3.44 138.782032 24,035 46,228 3.51 139.942033 24,558 47,036 3.60 142.372034 25,096 47,830 3.68 145.352035 25,649 48,627 3.77 148.972036 26,204 49,429 3.85 152.26Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.8% 1.2% 2.1% 5.8%

2015-16 2.5% 2.2% 0.9% -23.9%

2015-25 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 8.2%

2015-36 2.3% 1.7% 2.3% 4.8%

Source: IHS Global Insight

59
TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA/ MIDDLE 

EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC 

BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2001 1,359 20,279 3,835 12,108 50,418

2008 1,605 25,004 5,011 17,110 63,7412009 1,561 24,140 4,950 17,440 62,6862010 1,614 24,863 5,247 18,736 65,4242011 1,662 25,501 5,488 19,623 67,4772012 1,694 25,703 5,644 20,554 69,1372013 1,728 25,944 5,801 21,533 70,7782014 1,770 26,371 5,865 22,459 72,6202015E 1,789 26,777 5,839 23,402 74,355Forecast

2016 1,820 27,296 5,846 24,391 76,373

2017 1,861 27,923 5,956 25,455 78,6972018 1,904 28,606 6,106 26,603 81,1892019 1,949 29,288 6,284 27,870 83,8212020 1,993 30,010 6,477 29,190 86,5612021 2,037 30,746 6,673 30,572 89,3332022 2,080 31,487 6,881 31,992 92,1632023 2,123 32,235 7,099 33,437 95,0552024 2,166 32,993 7,323 34,920 98,0062025 2,210 33,751 7,554 36,413 100,970

2026 2,254 34,503 7,787 37,930 103,973

2027 2,298 35,267 8,027 39,467 107,033

2028 2,343 36,043 8,275 41,002 110,127

2029 2,388 36,829 8,531 42,529 113,240

2030 2,436 37,630 8,793 44,047 116,370

2031 2,483 38,439 9,065 45,599 119,560

2032 2,532 39,251 9,345 47,155 122,775

2033 2,582 40,076 9,633 48,761 126,074

2034 2,633 40,912 9,929 50,370 129,416

2035 2,685 41,757 10,233 51,998 132,8102036 2,739 42,615 10,546 53,671 136,273Avg Annual Growth2001-15 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 4.9% 2.8%

2015-16 1.8% 3.5% -0.3% 8.6% 5.2%

2015-25 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 5.0% 3.4%

2015-36 2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 4.2% 3.0%

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)

60
TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

CALENDAR AMERICA UNITED

YEAR (NAFTA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical

2001 15,072 11,486 2,108 5,125 2,410

2008 17,666 12,983 2,471 5,569 4,999

2009 17,156 12,400 2,367 5,262 5,461

2010 17,630 12,648 2,404 5,510 6,041

2011 17,960 12,861 2,451 5,489 6,614

2012 18,374 12,764 2,480 5,585 7,125

2013 18,655 12,735 2,533 5,671 7,673

2014 19,105 12,847 2,608 5,663 8,231

2015E 19,542 13,044 2,671 5,692 8,791

Forecast

2016 20,074 13,264 2,735 5,750 9,343

2017 20,630 13,499 2,803 5,784 9,938

2018 21,182 13,723 2,870 5,824 10,576

2019 21,736 13,923 2,933 5,896 11,260

2020 22,293 14,141 3,000 5,958 11,987

2021 22,797 14,364 3,069 6,017 12,758

2022 23,306 14,584 3,136 6,074 13,538

2023 23,836 14,802 3,204 6,131 14,322

2024 24,373 15,023 3,271 6,187 15,141

2025 24,908 15,238 3,339 6,243 15,959

2026 25,460 15,455 3,407 6,299 16,791

2027 26,031 15,673 3,478 6,352 17,632

2028 26,617 15,891 3,548 6,404 18,459

2029 27,216 16,112 3,621 6,455 19,260

2030 27,819 16,334 3,695 6,504 20,045

2031 28,433 16,559 3,770 6,550 20,850

2032 29,057 16,781 3,848 6,596 21,639

2033 29,698 17,006 3,926 6,641 22,452

2034 30,359 17,234 4,005 6,684 23,251

2035 31,039 17,461 4,085 6,727 24,047

2036 31,724 17,688 4,167 6,767 24,863

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.9% 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 9.7%

2015-16 2.7% 1.7% 2.4% 1.0% 6.3%

2015-25 2.5% 1.6% 2.3% 0.9% 6.1%

2015-36 2.3% 1.5% 2.1% 0.8% 5.1%

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)

61
TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical

2001 625 57 682 508 183 6912008 681 78 759 595 234 8282009 631 74 704 549 221 7702010 635 77 712 555 231 7862011 650 81 731 572 242 8152012 654 83 737 578 244 8222013 654 85 739 584 250 8342014 669 88 757 600 257 8572015E 696 89 786 629 260 889Forecast

2016 726 93 819 654 266 9212017 742 97 839 670 277 9472018 760 101 860 688 289 9772019 776 105 881 704 301 1,006

2020 790 109 899 719 313 1,0332021 803 113 916 733 325 1,0582022 814 117 931 745 337 1,0832023 824 122 945 756 350 1,1062024 835 126 961 768 362 1,1312025 848 131 979 783 375 1,1582026 863 135 998 798 388 1,1862027 878 140 1,018 814 401 1,2152028 895 145 1,040 833 414 1,2472029 914 150 1,063 852 428 1,2802030 932 155 1,087 872 442 1,3142031 951 160 1,111 892 456 1,3482032 971 165 1,136 913 471 1,3842033 991 171 1,162 934 485 1,4202034 1,011 176 1,188 956 500 1,4562035 1,031 182 1,213 977 516 1,4932036 1,052 188 1,240 999 532 1,531Avg Annual Growth2001-15 0.8% 3.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.5% 1.8%2015-16 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 2.2% 3.6%2015-25 2.0% 3.9% 2.2% 2.2% 3.7% 2.7%2015-36 2.0% 3.6% 2.2% 2.2% 3.5% 2.6%Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

62
TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical

2001 731 508 69.4 247 183 74.3 978 691 70.62008 750 595 79.3 293 234 79.9 1,042 828 79.52009 682 549 80.4 283 221 78.1 966 770 79.72010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.82011 693 572 82.5 300 242 80.7 994 815 82.02012 694 578 83.2 300 244 81.4 995 822 82.62013 700 584 83.4 303 250 82.6 1,003 834 83.22014 711 600 84.4 315 257 81.4 1,026 857 83.52015E 744 629 84.5 323 260 80.7 1,066 889 83.4Forecast

2016 769 654 85.1 325 266 81.9 1,094 921 84.22017 785 670 85.3 339 277 81.9 1,124 947 84.32018 805 688 85.5 353 289 81.9 1,158 977 84.42019 823 704 85.6 368 301 81.8 1,191 1,006 84.42020 839 719 85.7 383 313 81.8 1,222 1,033 84.52021 854 733 85.8 398 325 81.8 1,252 1,058 84.52022 868 745 85.9 412 337 81.8 1,280 1,083 84.62023 880 756 86.0 428 350 81.8 1,307 1,106 84.62024 893 768 86.0 443 362 81.8 1,336 1,131 84.62025 909 783 86.1 458 375 81.8 1,368 1,158 84.62026 927 798 86.1 474 388 81.8 1,401 1,186 84.72027 945 814 86.2 490 401 81.8 1,435 1,215 84.72028 966 833 86.2 507 414 81.8 1,473 1,247 84.72029 988 852 86.3 524 428 81.8 1,512 1,280 84.72030 1,010 872 86.3 541 442 81.8 1,551 1,314 84.72031 1,033 892 86.3 558 456 81.8 1,591 1,348 84.72032 1,057 913 86.4 576 471 81.7 1,633 1,384 84.72033 1,082 934 86.4 594 485 81.7 1,676 1,420 84.72034 1,106 956 86.4 612 500 81.7 1,719 1,456 84.72035 1,131 977 86.4 631 516 81.7 1,762 1,493 84.72036 1,156 999 86.5 650 532 81.7 1,806 1,531 84.7Avg Annual Growth2001-15 0.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6% 1.8%2015-16 3.4% 4.1% 0.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.6%2015-25 2.0% 2.2% 3.6% 3.7% 2.5% 2.7%2015-36 2.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 2.6%Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

63
TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL

FISCAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical

2001 20 23 11 55 86 37 59 183

2008 26 39 13 78 113 61 60 234

2009 25 37 12 74 109 58 55 221

2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 231

2011 25 42 14 81 112 67 64 242

2012 25 44 14 83 108 70 66 244

2013 25 46 14 85 107 75 69 250

2014 25 49 14 88 108 80 69 257

2015E 25 51 14 89 107 83 71 260

Forecast

2016 25 54 14 93 108 86 73 266

2017 26 56 15 97 113 89 75 277

2018 27 58 15 101 118 94 77 289

2019 28 61 15 105 123 99 80 301

2020 29 64 16 109 127 104 82 313

2021 30 67 16 113 132 109 84 325

2022 31 70 17 117 136 114 87 337

2023 32 73 17 121 141 120 89 350

2024 33 76 18 126 145 125 92 362

2025 33 79 18 130 149 131 95 375

2026 34 82 19 135 154 137 97 388

2027 35 86 19 140 158 143 100 401

2028 36 89 20 145 162 149 103 414

2029 37 93 20 150 167 156 106 428

2030 38 96 21 155 172 162 108 442

2031 39 100 21 160 176 169 111 456

2032 40 104 22 165 181 176 114 471

2033 41 108 22 171 186 183 117 485

2034 42 112 23 176 191 190 120 500

2035 43 116 23 182 196 197 123 516

2036 44 120 24 188 201 205 126 531

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.3% 5.8% 1.5% 3.5% 1.5% 5.9% 1.3% 2.6%

2015-16 2.1% 5.9% 2.0% 4.3% 0.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.2%

2015-25 3.1% 4.5% 2.6% 3.9% 3.4% 4.7% 2.9% 3.7%

2015-36 2.8% 4.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.1% 4.4% 2.8% 3.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

64
TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR U.S./CANADAYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical

2001 47 39 23 19 129

2008 57 50 26 22 154

2009 55 48 24 20 148

2010 56 53 27 22 157

2011 58 57 28 23 166

2012 61 61 31 25 177

2013 63 65 32 26 186

2014 66 69 34 28 197

2015E 69 73 35 29 206

Forecast

2016 72 77 36 29 214

2017 75 78 38 30 221

2018 78 80 40 32 230

2019 81 83 41 33 239

2020 85 87 43 34 249

2021 88 90 45 35 259

2022 91 94 47 37 269

2023 95 98 49 38 280

2024 98 102 51 39 2912025 102 106 53 41 3022026 105 111 55 42 3142027 109 116 58 43 3262028 113 121 60 45 3382029 117 126 62 46 3512030 121 131 64 48 3642031 125 137 66 50 3772032 129 142 68 51 3912033 134 148 70 53 4052034 138 155 72 55 4202035 143 161 74 57 4362036 148 168 77 59 452Avg Annual Growth2001-15 2.7% 4.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.4%

2015-16 3.5% 4.7% 2.8% 1.6% 3.5%

2015-25 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 3.5% 3.9%

2015-36 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.8%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada.

65
TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical

2001 128 227 143 812 3,234 1,013

2008 121 219 138 874 2,985 1,091

2009 122 219 140 870 3,008 1,093

2010 122 216 140 875 2,988 1,104

2011 123 217 141 880 2,993 1,114

2012 123 214 141 884 2,951 1,116

2013 125 214 143 894 2,942 1,130

2014 127 215 146 897 2,917 1,132

2015E 132 216 149 903 2,912 1,131

Forecast

2016 133 216 150 902 2,856 1,124

2017 134 216 151 903 2,868 1,130

2018 135 217 152 905 2,872 1,135

2019 136 217 153 908 2,874 1,142

2020 136 217 154 910 2,874 1,148

2021 137 217 155 913 2,876 1,155

2022 138 218 156 915 2,878 1,162

2023 138 218 157 918 2,879 1,170

2024 139 218 158 920 2,876 1,177

2025 139 219 159 923 2,873 1,183

2026 140 219 159 925 2,870 1,189

2027 140 219 160 928 2,867 1,194

2028 141 220 161 930 2,864 1,199

2029 141 220 161 933 2,860 1,204

2030 142 220 162 935 2,857 1,209

2031 142 220 163 938 2,853 1,213

2032 143 221 163 940 2,850 1,218

2033 143 221 164 943 2,844 1,222

2034 144 221 164 945 2,838 1,226

2035 144 222 165 948 2,831 1,231

2036 145 222 166 950 2,825 1,235

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

66
TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL (Millions) (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical

2001 545 54 598 483 182 6662008 522 75 596 521 232 7532009 477 71 548 478 220 6982010 473 75 548 480 230 7102011 488 79 567 497 241 7382012 495 80 575 503 243 7462013 498 82 580 511 248 7592014 515 85 600 527 255 7822015E 543 87 631 556 259 815Forecast2016 572 91 663 581 265 846

2017 584 94 679 595 276 8712018 598 98 697 611 288 8982019 611 102 714 626 299 9252020 623 107 729 639 312 9502021 633 111 743 651 324 9742022 642 115 756 661 336 9972023 649 119 768 671 348 1,0192024 658 123 781 682 361 1,0422025 668 128 796 694 373 1,0672026 680 132 812 708 386 1,0942027 692 137 829 722 399 1,1212028 706 142 848 738 412 1,1512029 720 147 867 756 426 1,1822030 735 152 887 773 440 1,2132031 750 157 907 791 454 1,2452032 765 162 928 809 468 1,2772033 781 168 949 828 483 1,3112034 797 173 970 847 498 1,3452035 813 179 992 866 514 1,3792036 829 185 1,014 885 529 1,414Avg Annual Growth2001-15 0.0% 3.5% 0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 1.5%2015-16 5.2% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% 2.3% 3.8%2015-25 2.1% 3.9% 2.4% 2.2% 3.7% 2.7%2015-36 2.0% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 2.7%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

67
TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical

2001 690 483 70.0 245 182 74.4 935 666 71.2

2008 650 521 80.2 290 232 80.0 940 753 80.1

2009 588 478 81.4 281 220 78.2 869 698 80.3

2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.5

2011 594 497 83.6 299 241 80.8 893 738 82.6

2012 599 503 84.1 298 243 81.5 896 746 83.2

2013 607 511 84.2 301 248 82.6 907 759 83.7

2014 620 527 85.0 313 255 81.4 933 782 83.8

2015E 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 974 815 83.7

Forecast

2016 678 581 85.8 323 265 81.9 1,001 846 84.5

2017 692 595 85.9 337 276 81.9 1,029 871 84.6

2018 709 611 86.1 351 288 81.9 1,060 898 84.7

2019 725 626 86.3 366 299 81.9 1,091 925 84.8

2020 739 639 86.4 381 312 81.9 1,120 950 84.9

2021 752 651 86.5 395 324 81.9 1,147 974 84.9

2022 764 661 86.6 410 336 81.9 1,174 997 84.9

2023 774 671 86.7 425 348 81.9 1,199 1,019 85.0

2024 786 682 86.7 440 361 81.8 1,226 1,042 85.0

2025 800 694 86.8 456 373 81.8 1,256 1,067 85.0

2026 815 708 86.9 472 386 81.8 1,287 1,094 85.0

2027 831 722 86.9 488 399 81.8 1,319 1,121 85.0

2028 849 738 86.9 504 412 81.8 1,353 1,151 85.0

2029 869 756 87.0 521 426 81.8 1,390 1,182 85.0

2030 888 773 87.0 538 440 81.8 1,426 1,213 85.1

2031 908 791 87.1 555 454 81.8 1,463 1,245 85.1

2032 929 809 87.1 573 468 81.8 1,502 1,277 85.1

2033 950 828 87.1 591 483 81.8 1,541 1,311 85.1

2034 972 847 87.2 609 498 81.8 1,581 1,345 85.1

2035 993 866 87.2 628 514 81.8 1,621 1,379 85.1

2036 1,015 885 87.2 647 529 81.8 1,662 1,414 85.1

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5%

2015-16 3.8% 4.6% 0.8% 2.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.8%

2015-25 2.0% 2.2% 3.6% 3.7% 0.1% 2.6% 2.7%

2015-36 2.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1% 2.6% 2.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

68
TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical

2001 20 22 11 542008 26 36 13 752009 25 34 12 712010 25 37 13 752011 25 40 14 792012 25 41 14 802013 25 43 14 822014 25 46 14 852015E 25 49 14 87Forecast

2016 25 52 14 912017 26 54 15 942018 27 56 15 982019 28 59 15 1022020 29 62 16 1072021 30 64 16 1112022 31 67 17 1152023 32 70 17 1192024 33 73 18 1232025 33 76 18 1282026 34 80 19 1322027 35 83 19 1372028 36 86 20 1422029 37 90 20 1472030 38 93 21 1522031 39 97 21 1572032 40 101 22 1622033 41 105 22 1682034 42 109 23 1732035 43 113 23 1792036 44 117 24 185Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.3% 5.9% 1.5% 3.5%2015-16 2.1% 6.2% 2.0% 4.4%2015-25 3.1% 4.6% 2.6% 3.9%2015-36 2.8% 4.3% 2.6% 3.6%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

69 
TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical

2001 113 86 76.4 53 37 69.2 79 59 75.2 245 182 74.42008 141 113 80.0 74 59 79.3 75 60 80.6 290 232 80.02009 138 109 78.9 73 56 76.8 70 55 78.3 281 220 78.22010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.22011 138 112 80.7 82 66 79.9 78 64 81.8 299 241 80.82012 132 108 81.5 84 68 80.9 81 66 82.0 298 243 81.52013 128 107 83.3 90 73 81.1 83 69 83.1 301 248 82.62014 132 108 81.7 97 78 80.6 84 69 82.0 313 255 81.42015E 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.8Forecast

2016 131 108 82.2 104 84 80.4 88 73 83.3 323 265 81.92017 138 113 82.2 109 88 80.4 90 75 83.3 337 276 81.92018 144 118 82.2 114 92 80.4 93 77 83.3 351 288 81.92019 150 123 82.2 121 97 80.4 95 80 83.3 366 299 81.92020 155 127 82.2 127 102 80.4 98 82 83.3 381 312 81.92021 160 132 82.2 133 107 80.4 101 84 83.3 395 324 81.92022 166 136 82.2 140 112 80.4 104 87 83.3 410 336 81.9

2023 171 141 82.2 147 118 80.4 107 89 83.3 425 348 81.9

2024 176 145 82.2 154 124 80.4 110 92 83.3 440 361 81.82025 182 149 82.2 161 129 80.4 114 95 83.3 456 373 81.8

2026 187 154 82.2 168 135 80.4 117 97 83.3 472 386 81.8

2027 192 158 82.2 175 141 80.4 120 100 83.3 488 399 81.8

2028 198 162 82.2 183 147 80.4 123 103 83.3 504 412 81.8

2029 203 167 82.2 191 154 80.4 127 106 83.3 521 426 81.8

2030 209 172 82.2 199 160 80.4 130 108 83.3 538 440 81.8

2031 214 176 82.2 207 167 80.4 133 111 83.3 555 454 81.8

2032 220 181 82.2 216 173 80.4 137 114 83.3 573 468 81.8

2033 226 186 82.2 225 180 80.4 140 117 83.3 591 483 81.8

2034 232 191 82.2 233 188 80.4 144 120 83.3 609 498 81.8

2035 238 196 82.2 243 195 80.4 147 123 83.3 628 514 81.8

2036 244 201 82.2 252 203 80.4 151 126 83.3 647 529 81.8

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.2% 1.5% 4.7% 5.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.9% 2.5%

2015-16 -1.8% 0.9% 3.4% 3.6% 1.8% 2.8% 0.8% 2.3%

2015-25 3.1% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7%

2015-36 2.9% 3.1% 4.4% 4.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

70
TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

Historical

2001 146 233 175 304 234 162

2008 150 229 177 292 225 167

2009 151 230 176 291 224 169

2010 152 232 172 287 221 169

2011 152 231 173 283 221 170

2012 153 230 172 278 219 170

2013 154 233 172 276 219 171

2014 155 236 173 276 220 172

2015E 158 237 174 272 220 174

Forecast

2016 158 238 174 273 220 174

2017 159 238 175 274 220 175

2018 160 239 175 274 220 176

2019 160 239 176 275 220 176

2020 161 240 176 276 221 177

2021 161 240 177 277 221 178

2022 162 241 177 277 221 179

2023 162 241 178 278 221 179

2024 163 242 178 279 222 180

2025 164 242 179 280 222 181

2026 164 243 179 280 222 181

2027 164 243 180 281 222 182

2028 165 244 180 282 223 183

2029 165 244 181 283 223 183

2030 166 245 181 283 223 184

2031 166 245 182 284 223 184

2032 167 246 182 285 224 185

2033 167 246 183 286 224 185

2034 168 247 183 286 224 186

2035 168 247 184 287 225 186

2036 168 248 184 288 225 187

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

71
TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical

2001 887 4,212 1,688 5,229 3,405 1,013

2008 999 4,333 1,652 4,583 3,100 1,091

2009 1,003 4,402 1,646 4,550 3,098 1,093

2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,104

2011 1,017 4,415 1,655 4,707 3,068 1,114

2012 1,017 4,356 1,668 4,725 3,040 1,116

2013 1,026 4,313 1,693 4,774 3,023 1,130

2014 1,024 4,321 1,696 4,910 2,993 1,132

2015E 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,131

Forecast

2016 1,017 4,287 1,628 5,120 2,909 1,124

2017 1,018 4,309 1,636 5,133 2,921 1,130

2018 1,021 4,330 1,644 5,146 2,925 1,135

2019 1,023 4,352 1,652 5,157 2,925 1,142

2020 1,026 4,374 1,660 5,169 2,924 1,148

2021 1,028 4,391 1,669 5,180 2,925 1,155

2022 1,031 4,409 1,677 5,190 2,925 1,162

2023 1,034 4,427 1,685 5,200 2,925 1,170

2024 1,036 4,444 1,690 5,209 2,921 1,177

2025 1,039 4,462 1,694 5,218 2,918 1,183

2026 1,041 4,475 1,698 5,226 2,914 1,189

2027 1,044 4,489 1,702 5,234 2,910 1,194

2028 1,047 4,502 1,707 5,242 2,906 1,199

2029 1,049 4,516 1,711 5,248 2,902 1,204

2030 1,052 4,525 1,715 5,255 2,897 1,209

2031 1,054 4,534 1,719 5,260 2,893 1,213

2032 1,057 4,543 1,724 5,266 2,889 1,218

2033 1,060 4,552 1,725 5,270 2,883 1,222

2034 1,062 4,557 1,727 5,275 2,876 1,226

2035 1,065 4,561 1,729 5,278 2,869 1,231

2036 1,068 4,566 1,731 5,282 2,862 1,235

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

72
TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical

2001 13.54 18.19 10.34 13.89 13.36 17.95

2008 13.11 14.48 13.37 14.77 13.90 15.35

2009 11.95 13.24 11.68 12.94 12.35 13.68

2010 12.62 13.74 12.84 13.98 12.98 14.14

2011 13.62 14.45 14.09 14.95 13.90 14.75

2012 14.08 14.59 14.74 15.27 14.19 14.70

2013 14.42 14.70 14.80 15.09 14.28 14.56

2014 15.11 15.16 14.94 14.98 14.74 14.78

2015E 14.73 14.73 14.20 14.20 14.36 14.36

Forecast

2016 14.39 14.26 13.69 13.57 13.98 13.86

2017 15.19 14.65 13.99 13.49 14.63 14.10

2018 15.58 14.66 14.26 13.41 14.97 14.09

2019 15.99 14.70 14.50 13.33 15.32 14.09

2020 16.40 14.72 14.76 13.25 15.68 14.07

2021 16.83 14.73 15.04 13.17 16.05 14.05

2022 17.35 14.78 15.36 13.09 16.49 14.05

2023 17.92 14.87 15.67 13.01 16.96 14.08

2024 18.43 14.91 15.98 12.93 17.40 14.07

2025 18.85 14.89 16.27 12.85 17.76 14.03

2026 19.19 14.82 16.54 12.77 18.07 13.95

2027 19.52 14.73 16.82 12.69 18.37 13.86

2028 19.84 14.63 17.10 12.61 18.66 13.76

2029 20.14 14.52 17.39 12.54 18.95 13.66

2030 20.43 14.40 17.68 12.47 19.23 13.56

2031 20.74 14.29 17.99 12.40 19.53 13.46

2032 21.05 14.18 18.28 12.32 19.83 13.36

2033 21.39 14.08 18.59 12.24 20.15 13.27

2034 21.74 13.99 18.90 12.16 20.48 13.18

2035 22.12 13.90 19.22 12.08 20.82 13.09

2036 22.49 13.81 19.55 12.01 21.17 13.01

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 0.6% -1.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% -1.6%

2015-16 -2.3% -3.2% -3.6% -4.5% -2.6% -3.5%

2015-25 2.5% 0.1% 1.4% -1.0% 2.1% -0.2%

2015-36 2.0% -0.3% 1.5% -0.8% 1.9% -0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

73
TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical

2001 9.71 13.05 13.38 17.97 9.38 12.60 10.34 13.89

2008 13.29 14.67 14.19 15.67 12.73 14.06 13.37 14.772009 11.25 12.46 12.99 14.39 11.20 12.40 11.68 12.942010 12.73 13.87 13.33 14.52 12.50 13.61 12.84 13.982011 13.48 14.31 15.13 16.06 14.07 14.93 14.09 14.952012 13.95 14.45 15.79 16.35 14.95 15.49 14.74 15.272013 14.45 14.73 15.80 16.10 14.30 14.57 14.80 15.092014 14.84 14.88 15.76 15.81 14.15 14.19 14.94 14.982015E 14.64 14.64 14.50 14.50 13.21 13.21 14.20 14.20Forecast

2016 14.55 14.42 13.61 13.48 12.53 12.42 13.69 13.572017 14.88 14.34 13.86 13.36 12.80 12.34 13.99 13.492018 15.17 14.27 14.10 13.26 13.05 12.28 14.26 13.412019 15.45 14.20 14.30 13.15 13.28 12.21 14.50 13.332020 15.74 14.13 14.54 13.05 13.53 12.14 14.76 13.252021 16.06 14.06 14.78 12.94 13.79 12.07 15.04 13.172022 16.41 13.99 15.06 12.84 14.09 12.01 15.36 13.092023 16.77 13.92 15.34 12.73 14.39 11.94 15.67 13.012024 17.12 13.85 15.61 12.63 14.68 11.88 15.98 12.932025 17.45 13.78 15.85 12.52 14.96 11.82 16.27 12.852026 17.76 13.71 16.09 12.42 15.23 11.76 16.54 12.772027 18.08 13.64 16.33 12.32 15.51 11.70 16.82 12.692028 18.41 13.57 16.59 12.23 15.78 11.64 17.10 12.612029 18.74 13.51 16.84 12.14 16.07 11.59 17.39 12.542030 19.06 13.44 17.09 12.05 16.36 11.53 17.68 12.472031 19.40 13.37 17.37 11.97 16.66 11.48 17.99 12.402032 19.75 13.30 17.62 11.87 16.96 11.43 18.28 12.322033 20.10 13.24 17.87 11.77 17.27 11.37 18.59 12.242034 20.47 13.17 18.14 11.67 17.60 11.32 18.90 12.162035 20.85 13.11 18.41 11.57 17.93 11.27 19.22 12.082036 21.23 13.04 18.68 11.47 19.26 11.22 19.55 12.01Avg Annual Growth2001-15 3.0% 0.8% 0.6% -1.5% 2.5% 0.3% 2.3% 0.2%

2015-16 -0.6% -1.5% -6.2% -7.0% -5.2% -6.0% -3.6% -4.5%2015-25 1.8% -0.6% 0.9% -1.5% 1.3% -1.1% 1.4% -1.0%2015-36 1.8% -0.5% 1.2% -1.1% 1.8% -0.8% 1.5% -0.8%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

74
TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $ CURRENT $ FY 2015 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical

2001 82.66 110.64 86.37 115.68 83.68 112.42

2008 292.53 323.01 314.57 347.35 299.65 330.88

2009 202.07 223.80 208.27 230.66 204.14 226.09

2010 219.16 238.67 220.12 239.71 219.49 239.02

2011 289.32 307.04 288.10 305.75 288.87 306.56

2012 314.56 325.90 309.52 320.68 312.64 323.92

2013 308.91 314.91 299.39 305.20 305.24 311.17

2014 300.70 301.66 292.56 293.49 297.61 298.55

2015E 207.33 207.33 211.76 211.76 208.98 208.98

Forecast

2016 153.94 152.56 157.23 155.82 155.17 153.78

2017 178.60 172.19 182.42 175.87 180.02 173.56

2018 196.50 184.88 200.70 188.84 198.06 186.36

2019 216.74 199.27 221.38 203.53 218.47 200.86

2020 237.67 213.31 242.75 217.87 239.56 215.01

2021 259.41 227.08 264.96 231.93 261.48 228.89

2022 288.28 245.71 294.45 250.96 290.58 247.66

2023 326.54 270.98 333.52 276.77 329.14 273.14

2024 363.73 294.19 371.50 300.48 366.62 296.53

2025 390.54 308.43 398.89 315.02 393.65 310.88

2026 407.57 314.60 416.28 321.32 410.81 317.10

2027 419.47 316.49 428.44 323.25 422.81 319.01

2028 428.48 315.99 437.64 322.74 431.89 318.50

2029 434.06 312.91 443.34 319.60 437.51 315.40

2030 438.18 308.94 447.55 315.55 441.67 311.40

2031 442.07 304.66 451.52 311.17 445.59 307.08

2032 445.78 300.30 455.31 306.72 449.33 302.69

2033 452.66 298.10 462.33 304.47 456.26 300.47

2034 461.58 296.99 471.44 303.33 465.25 299.35

2035 472.52 297.07 482.62 303.42 476.28 299.44

2036 483.07 296.76 493.39 303.11 486.91 299.12

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 6.8% 4.6% 6.6% 4.4% 6.8% 4.5%

2015-16 -25.8% -26.4% -25.8% -26.4% -25.8% -26.4%

2015-25 6.5% 4.1% 6.5% 4.1% 6.5% 4.1%

2015-36 4.1% 1.7% 4.1% 1.7% 4.1% 1.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

75
TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)

YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical

2001 9,992 7,380 17,372 3,946 7,167 11,112 13,938 14,547 28,4852008 12,261 17,516 29,777 2,147 6,905 9,052 14,408 24,421 38,8292009 10,275 13,834 24,110 1,623 5,266 6,889 11,899 19,100 30,9992010 11,243 16,733 27,976 1,580 6,332 7,912 12,823 23,065 35,8882011 10,601 18,980 29,581 1,446 6,250 7,696 12,047 25,230 37,2772012 10,886 18,310 29,196 1,360 5,952 7,313 12,246 24,262 36,5092013 10,996 16,741 27,737 1,354 5,700 7,053 12,350 22,441 34,7902014 11,226 16,356 27,581 1,451 6,148 7,598 12,676 22,503 35,1802015E 11,672 16,403 28,075 1,417 6,456 7,873 13,089 22,858 35,947Forecast

2016 11,908 17,454 29,362 1,434 6,768 8,202 13,343 24,222 37,5652017 12,172 18,651 30,822 1,455 7,125 8,579 13,626 25,775 39,4022018 12,296 19,807 32,103 1,458 7,454 8,912 13,754 27,261 41,0152019 12,451 20,994 33,445 1,465 7,781 9,246 13,916 28,775 42,6912020 12,653 22,234 34,888 1,477 8,116 9,593 14,130 30,351 44,4812021 12,789 23,410 36,198 1,480 8,415 9,896 14,269 31,825 46,0942022 12,840 24,633 37,474 1,474 8,719 10,193 14,315 33,352 47,6672023 12,881 25,956 38,837 1,467 9,045 10,512 14,348 35,000 49,3492024 12,897 27,331 40,228 1,457 9,376 10,832 14,354 36,706 51,0602025 12,917 28,684 41,600 1,447 9,685 11,132 14,364 38,369 52,7322026 12,944 30,107 43,050 1,438 10,005 11,443 14,382 40,111 54,4932027 12,962 31,597 44,559 1,428 10,332 11,760 14,390 41,929 56,3192028 12,988 33,139 46,127 1,419 10,662 12,081 14,407 43,801 58,2082029 13,003 34,717 47,721 1,409 10,989 12,397 14,412 45,706 60,1182030 13,021 36,319 49,340 1,399 11,308 12,706 14,420 47,627 62,0462031 13,026 37,974 51,000 1,387 11,628 13,015 14,413 49,601 64,0142032 13,032 39,670 52,702 1,376 11,945 13,321 14,408 51,615 66,0222033 13,048 41,445 54,493 1,366 12,270 13,635 14,413 53,715 68,1292034 13,062 43,292 56,354 1,355 12,599 13,954 14,417 55,891 70,3082035 13,072 45,206 58,279 1,344 12,931 14,275 14,417 58,137 72,5542036 13,081 47,170 60,251 1,333 13,259 14,593 14,415 60,429 74,844Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.1% 5.9% 3.5% -7.1% -0.7% -2.4% -0.4% 3.3% 1.7%2015-16 2.0% 6.4% 4.6% 1.2% 4.8% 4.2% 1.9% 6.0% 4.5%2015-25 1.0% 5.7% 4.0% 0.2% 4.1% 3.5% 0.9% 5.3% 3.9%2015-36 0.5% 5.2% 3.7% -0.3% 3.5% 3.0% 0.5% 4.7% 3.6%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

76
TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

OTHER

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL TOTALYEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)Historical

2001 5,282 1,867 6,949 1,320 15,418

2008 6,415 2,336 9,050 6,620 24,421

2009 5,740 1,793 6,855 4,711 19,100

2010 6,865 1,991 8,348 5,860 23,065

2011 7,236 1,832 9,105 7,057 25,230

2012 7,026 1,870 8,569 6,797 24,262

2013 6,662 1,789 8,184 5,806 22,441

2014 6,887 1,740 8,429 5,447 22,503

2015 6,746 1,623 9,138 5,351 22,858

Forecast

2016E 7,012 1,572 10,027 5,611 24,222

2017 7,320 1,577 10,989 5,889 25,775

2018 7,637 1,598 11,856 6,170 27,261

2019 7,953 1,629 12,736 6,457 28,775

2020 8,292 1,663 13,643 6,753 30,351

2021 8,627 1,687 14,461 7,049 31,825

2022 8,974 1,707 15,320 7,350 33,352

2023 9,337 1,732 16,271 7,660 35,000

2024 9,711 1,760 17,258 7,977 36,706

2025 10,089 1,782 18,202 8,295 38,369

2026 10,477 1,804 19,211 8,619 40,111

2027 10,881 1,827 20,272 8,949 41,929

2028 11,299 1,851 21,367 9,283 43,801

2029 11,730 1,877 22,480 9,619 45,706

2030 12,173 1,901 23,595 9,958 47,627

2031 12,629 1,924 24,745 10,303 49,601

2032 13,098 1,946 25,919 10,652 51,615

2033 13,583 1,969 27,152 11,011 53,715

2034 14,087 1,993 28,435 11,376 55,891

2035 14,609 2,019 29,762 11,747 58,137

2036 15,146 2,043 31,113 12,127 60,429

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.8% -1.0% 2.0% 10.5% 2.9%2015-16 3.9% -3.1% 9.7% 4.9% 6.0%

2015-25 4.1% 0.9% 7.1% 4.5% 5.3%

2015-36 3.9% 1.1% 6.0% 4.0% 4.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

77
TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTAL

YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETSHistorical

2001 3,412 187 0 3,599 451 89 85 625 4,224 26 4,2502008 3,170 10 1 3,181 471 9 44 524 3,705 79 3,7842009 3,108 9 1 3,118 447 9 42 498 3,616 78 3,6942010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2011 3,127 7 1 3,135 471 7 41 519 3,654 76 3,730

2012 3,123 7 0 3,130 480 3 40 523 3,653 82 3,735

2013 3,159 5 0 3,164 482 0 40 522 3,686 93 3,779

2014 3,224 2 0 3,226 473 0 37 510 3,736 98 3,834

2015E 3,322 2 0 3,324 492 0 31 523 3,847 99 3,946Forecast

2016 3,431 2 0 3,433 509 0 22 531 3,964 101 4,065

2017 3,473 2 0 3,475 539 0 9 548 4,023 129 4,152

2018 3,502 2 0 3,504 560 0 0 560 4,064 139 4,203

2019 3,538 2 0 3,540 569 0 0 569 4,109 149 4,258

2020 3,568 2 0 3,570 572 0 0 572 4,142 161 4,3032021 3,603 2 0 3,605 586 0 0 586 4,191 169 4,3602022 3,634 1 0 3,635 605 0 0 605 4,240 171 4,411

2023 3,675 0 0 3,675 615 0 0 615 4,290 173 4,4632024 3,707 0 0 3,707 627 0 0 627 4,334 175 4,509

2025 3,809 0 0 3,809 625 0 0 625 4,434 178 4,612

2026 3,828 0 0 3,828 636 0 0 636 4,464 181 4,6452027 3,851 0 0 3,851 651 0 0 651 4,502 183 4,685

2028 3,898 0 0 3,898 663 0 0 663 4,561 185 4,746

2029 3,949 0 0 3,949 674 0 0 674 4,623 187 4,8102030 4,020 0 0 4,020 693 0 0 693 4,713 187 4,9002031 4,076 0 0 4,076 715 0 0 715 4,791 185 4,976

2032 4,122 0 0 4,122 740 0 0 740 4,862 185 5,047

2033 4,162 0 0 4,162 768 0 0 768 4,930 185 5,115

2034 4,211 0 0 4,211 793 0 0 793 5,004 185 5,189

2035 4,261 0 0 4,261 815 0 0 815 5,076 185 5,261

2036 4,314 0 0 4,314 840 0 0 840 5,154 185 5,339Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -0.2% -27.7% N/A -0.6% 0.6% N/A -7.0% -1.3% -0.7% 10.0% -0.5%

2015-16 3.3% 0.0% N/A 3.3% 3.5% N/A -29.0% 1.5% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0%

2015-25 1.4% -100.0% N/A 1.4% 2.4% N/A N/A 1.8% 1.4% 6.0% 1.6%

2015-36 1.3% -99.9% N/A 1.2% 2.6% N/A N/A 2.3% 1.4% 3.0% 1.5%

78
 

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical

2001 180 343 143 666 190 192 85 467 1,1332008 163 116 29 308 274 207 82 563 871

2009 154 107 30 291 253 196 82 531 822

2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2011 176 89 26 291 281 203 96 580 871

2012 187 67 12 266 292 188 93 573 839

2013 192 15 2 209 296 175 64 535 7442014 216 14 0 230 294 170 69 533 7632015E 225 19 0 244 309 156 72 537 781Forecast

2016 227 19 0 246 312 149 72 533 7792017 232 19 0 251 328 139 73 540 7912018 237 19 0 256 349 126 73 548 8042019 241 19 0 260 372 113 74 559 8192020 247 17 0 264 395 100 75 570 8342021 250 16 0 266 411 98 77 586 8522022 255 11 0 266 427 95 78 600 8662023 244 10 0 254 441 93 80 614 8682024 256 9 0 265 455 91 81 627 8922025 258 0 0 258 469 89 83 641 8992026 262 0 0 262 485 87 84 656 9182027 271 0 0 271 500 85 87 672 9432028 273 0 0 273 517 82 89 688 9612029 275 0 0 275 532 80 92 704 9792030 277 0 0 277 549 75 94 718 9952031 279 0 0 279 569 71 97 737 1,016

2032 280 0 0 280 589 66 99 754 1,034

2033 283 0 0 283 609 62 102 773 1,056

2034 284 0 0 284 629 58 104 791 1,075

2035 286 0 0 286 649 54 107 810 1,096

2036 287 0 0 287 668 50 109 827 1,114

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.6% -18.7% N/A -6.9% 3.5% -1.5% -1.2% 1.0% -2.6%2015-16 0.9% 0.0% N/A 0.8% 1.0% -4.5% 0.0% -0.7% -0.3%

2015-25 1.4% N/A N/A 0.6% 4.3% -5.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4%

2015-36 1.2% N/A N/A 0.8% 3.7% -5.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7%

79
TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FISCAL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2 GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL

YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMED

Historical

2001 15,350 5,893 21,243 918 22,162 2 279 335 21,350

2008 13,397 6,499 19,896 1,706 21,602 2 248 250 21,852

2009 11,896 6,033 17,929 1,447 19,376 2 227 229 19,606

2010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,921

2011 12,092 6,547 18,639 1,456 20,095 2 216 218 20,313

2012 12,124 6,595 18,720 1,435 20,155 2 206 208 20,363

2013 12,044 6,418 18,461 1,260 19,721 2 197 199 19,920

2014 12,167 6,348 18,514 1,466 19,981 2 210 212 20,192

2015E 12,542 6,471 19,013 1,471 20,485 2 208 210 20,695

Forecast

2016 12,834 6,459 19,293 1,497 20,789 2 207 209 20,998

2017 12,973 6,664 19,637 1,536 21,173 2 206 208 21,381

2018 13,136 6,877 20,014 1,576 21,590 2 206 208 21,798

2019 13,273 7,092 20,365 1,617 21,982 2 206 208 22,190

2020 13,393 7,308 20,701 1,660 22,361 2 206 208 22,569

2021 13,489 7,511 21,000 1,702 22,702 2 206 208 22,911

2022 13,555 7,714 21,269 1,734 23,003 2 206 208 23,211

2023 13,602 7,919 21,521 1,766 23,287 2 206 208 23,495

2024 13,672 8,124 21,796 1,800 23,597 2 206 208 23,805

2025 13,770 8,325 22,095 1,836 23,931 2 207 209 24,139

2026 13,881 8,525 22,407 1,871 24,278 2 207 209 24,486

2027 13,995 8,728 22,723 1,903 24,626 2 206 208 24,834

2028 14,136 8,933 23,068 1,939 25,007 2 207 209 25,216

2029 14,282 9,137 23,419 1,978 25,397 2 207 209 25,606

2030 14,422 9,340 23,762 2,017 25,779 2 207 209 25,988

2031 14,563 9,545 24,108 2,056 26,164 2 207 209 26,373

2032 14,708 9,749 24,457 2,096 26,553 2 208 210 26,762

2033 14,852 9,956 24,808 2,137 26,945 2 208 210 27,155

2034 14,989 10,165 25,154 2,177 27,331 2 208 210 27,542

2035 15,125 10,375 25,500 2,224 27,724 2 209 211 27,935

2036 15,260 10,586 25,845 2,267 28,112 2 209 211 28,323

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -1.4% 0.7% -0.8% 3.4% -0.6% 0.0% -2.1% -3.3% -0.2%2015-16 2.3% -0.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 1.5%

2015-25 0.9% 2.6% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1.6%

2015-36 0.9% 2.4% 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

80
TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

REVENUE PER

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL CURRENT $ 2015 $ 

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical

2001 40 43 41 302 303 302 31.65 42.52

2008 53 53 53 461 533 462 21.04 23.23

2009 55 53 55 457 512 458 17.04 18.88

2010 56 53 56 464 503 465 15.74 17.14

2011 56 53 56 467 531 468 15.10 16.03

2012 56 55 56 467 606 470 13.16 13.64

2013 56 55 56 469 641 472 11.66 11.88

2014 57 57 57 473 669 477 11.39 11.42

2015E 60 57 60 475 691 479 12.17 12.17

Forecast

2016 61 58 61 474 688 477 11.89 11.78

2017 62 58 62 476 691 479 12.55 12.10

2018 63 58 63 478 694 481 12.87 12.11

2019 64 58 63 480 697 483 13.20 12.14

2020 64 59 64 482 700 485 13.54 12.15

2021 65 59 65 484 703 487 13.90 12.16

2022 65 59 65 486 706 489 14.32 12.20

2023 66 60 66 488 709 491 14.79 12.27

2024 66 60 66 490 711 493 15.21 12.30

2025 67 60 67 491 714 495 15.55 12.28

2026 67 61 67 493 717 497 15.83 12.22

2027 68 61 68 495 720 499 16.10 12.15

2028 68 61 68 497 723 501 16.36 12.07

2029 69 61 69 499 726 503 16.61 11.98

2030 69 62 69 501 729 505 16.85 11.88

2031 70 62 70 503 732 507 17.11 11.79

2032 70 62 70 505 735 509 17.36 11.69

2033 71 63 71 507 738 511 17.64 11.62

2034 71 63 71 509 740 513 17.93 11.54

2035 72 63 72 511 743 515 18.24 11.47

2036 72 64 72 513 746 517 18.54 11.39

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 2.8% 2.1% 2.8% 3.3% 6.1% 3.3% -6.6% -8.5%

2015-16 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -2.3% -3.2%

2015-25 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5% 0.1%

2015-36 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% -0.3%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.

81
TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTALHistorical

2001 80 3 84 24,299 947 25,2462008 159 4 163 73,305 1,867 75,172

2009 154 3 157 70,374 1,304 71,678

2010 162 3 164 75,030 1,347 76,377

2011 162 2 164 75,513 1,270 76,783

2012 159 3 162 74,330 1,856 76,187

2013 155 3 158 72,956 1,851 74,807

2014 154 3 157 72,953 1,926 74,878

2015E 153 2 155 72,753 1,548 74,301

Forecast

2016 154 2 156 72,999 1,553 74,552

2017 158 2 160 74,910 1,594 76,503

2018 161 2 164 77,018 1,638 78,656

2019 165 2 167 78,974 1,680 80,654

2020 168 2 170 80,734 1,717 82,452

2021 170 2 173 82,363 1,752 84,115

2022 173 3 175 83,835 1,783 85,619

2023 175 3 177 85,154 1,812 86,965

2024 177 3 180 86,635 1,843 88,478

2025 180 3 182 88,349 1,879 90,228

2026 183 3 185 90,208 1,919 92,127

2027 186 3 189 92,118 1,960 94,078

2028 190 3 192 94,313 2,006 96,320

2029 193 3 196 96,630 2,056 98,686

2030 197 3 200 98,942 2,105 101,047

2031 201 3 204 101,365 2,156 103,521

2032 206 3 209 103,888 2,210 106,098

2033 210 3 213 106,478 2,265 108,743

2034 214 3 217 109,046 2,320 111,365

2035 218 3 221 111,641 2,375 114,016

2036 223 3 226 114,288 2,431 116,719

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 4.7% -2.4% 4.5% 8.1% 3.6% 8.0%

2015-16 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

2015-25 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

2015-36 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

82
TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR

Historical

2001 41,418 24,299 58.7 1,633 947 58.0 43,051 25,246 58.62008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.6

2009 94,664 70,374 74.3 1,859 1,304 70.2 96,523 71,678 74.32010 98,461 75,030 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,318 76,377 76.1

2011 99,075 75,513 76.2 1,818 1,270 69.9 100,893 76,783 76.1

2012 95,748 74,330 77.6 2,595 1,856 71.5 98,343 76,187 77.52013 93,084 72,956 78.4 2,448 1,851 75.6 95,532 74,807 78.32014 91,169 72,953 80.0 2,560 1,926 75.2 93,729 74,878 79.92015E 90,679 72,753 80.2 2,103 1,548 73.6 92,782 74,301 80.1Forecast

2016 90,661 72,999 80.5 2,103 1,553 73.8 92,764 74,552 80.42017 92,988 74,910 80.6 2,157 1,594 73.9 95,145 76,503 80.42018 95,560 77,018 80.6 2,217 1,638 73.9 97,777 78,656 80.42019 97,945 78,974 80.6 2,272 1,680 74.0 100,216 80,654 80.5

2020 100,086 80,734 80.7 2,321 1,717 74.0 102,407 82,452 80.5

2021 102,065 82,363 80.7 2,367 1,752 74.0 104,432 84,115 80.5

2022 103,851 83,835 80.7 2,409 1,783 74.0 106,260 85,619 80.6

2023 105,448 85,154 80.8 2,446 1,812 74.1 107,894 86,965 80.6

2024 107,247 86,635 80.8 2,488 1,843 74.1 109,735 88,478 80.6

2025 109,334 88,349 80.8 2,536 1,879 74.1 111,870 90,228 80.7

2026 111,601 90,208 80.8 2,589 1,919 74.1 114,189 92,127 80.7

2027 113,932 92,118 80.9 2,643 1,960 74.2 116,575 94,078 80.7

2028 116,616 94,313 80.9 2,705 2,006 74.2 119,321 96,320 80.7

2029 119,450 96,630 80.9 2,771 2,056 74.2 122,221 98,686 80.7

2030 122,277 98,942 80.9 2,836 2,105 74.2 125,114 101,047 80.8

2031 125,242 101,365 80.9 2,905 2,156 74.2 128,147 103,521 80.82032 128,331 103,888 81.0 2,977 2,210 74.2 131,308 106,098 80.82033 131,502 106,478 81.0 3,050 2,265 74.3 134,552 108,743 80.82034 134,646 109,046 81.0 3,123 2,320 74.3 137,769 111,365 80.82035 137,824 111,641 81.0 3,197 2,375 74.3 141,020 114,016 80.92036 141,064 114,288 81.0 3,272 2,431 74.3 144,336 116,719 80.9Avg Annual Growth2001-15 5.8% 8.1% 1.8% 3.6% 1.7% 5.6% 8.0%

2015-16 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3%

2015-25 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 2.0%

2015-36 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 0.0% 2.1% 2.2%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

83
 

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEETJANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET* TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical

2001 490 250 248 445 110 555 148 672 820 1,581 782 2,3632008 451 107 68 180 25 205 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,755 2,682

2009 466 103 65 153 29 182 115 1,722 1,837 902 1,751 2,653

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2011 447 94 67 113 27 140 135 1,683 1,818 857 1,710 2,567

2012 394 90 55 115 23 138 104 1,559 1,663 758 1,582 2,340

2013 337 94 52 37 0 37 51 1,642 1,693 571 1,642 2,213

2014 321 90 56 32 0 32 56 1,602 1,658 555 1,602 2,157

2015E 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,144

Forecast

2016 337 66 13 31 0 31 59 1,527 1,586 506 1,527 2,033

2017 322 63 12 30 0 30 61 1,522 1,583 488 1,522 2,010

2018 198 61 12 29 0 29 63 1,474 1,537 363 1,474 1,837

2019 187 58 11 27 0 27 65 1,453 1,518 348 1,453 1,801

2020 181 56 11 26 0 26 67 1,420 1,487 341 1,420 1,761

2021 171 53 10 25 0 25 69 1,384 1,453 328 1,384 1,712

2022 165 51 10 24 0 24 71 1,375 1,446 321 1,375 1,696

2023 157 49 9 23 0 23 72 1,399 1,471 310 1,399 1,709

2024 150 46 9 22 0 22 74 1,414 1,488 301 1,414 1,715

2025 142 44 8 21 0 21 76 1,430 1,506 291 1,430 1,721

2026 132 41 8 19 0 19 78 1,460 1,538 278 1,460 1,738

2027 124 39 7 18 0 18 80 1,488 1,568 268 1,488 1,756

2028 117 36 7 17 0 17 81 1,524 1,605 258 1,524 1,782

2029 111 34 7 16 0 16 83 1,550 1,633 251 1,550 1,801

2030 103 32 6 15 0 15 85 1,580 1,665 241 1,580 1,821

2031 95 29 6 14 0 14 86 1,612 1,698 230 1,612 1,842

2032 87 27 5 13 0 13 88 1,650 1,738 220 1,650 1,870

2033 78 24 5 11 0 11 89 1,686 1,775 207 1,686 1,893

2034 70 22 4 10 0 10 91 1,718 1,809 197 1,718 1,915

2035 62 19 4 9 0 9 92 1,751 1,843 186 1,751 1,937

2036 54 17 3 8 0 8 93 1,786 1,879 175 1,786 1,961

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -2.5% -8.9% -19.0% -17.1% N/A -18.4% -6.6% 6.5% 5.3% -7.7% 5.4% -0.7%2015-16 -2.6% -2.9% 0.0% -3.1% N/A -3.1% 3.5% -6.2% -5.9% -1.9% -6.2% -5.2%

2015-25 -8.5% -4.3% -4.7% -4.1% N/A -4.1% 2.9% -1.3% -1.1% -5.6% -1.3% -2.2%

2015-36 -8.5% -6.4% -6.7% -6.4% N/A -6.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.5% -5.0% 0.4% -0.4%

Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.*Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

84
TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

AS OF SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*

2001 145,034 18,192 163,226 6,596 7,787 14,383 2,292 4,491 6,783 20,421 N/A 6,633 211,446 165,518 18,874

2008 145,497 17,515 163,012 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,664 166,510 26,327

2009 140,649 16,474 157,123 9,055 11,268 20,323 3,499 6,485 9,984 24,419 6,547 5,480 223,876 160,622 26,808

2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,3672011E 136,895 15,702 152,597 9,523 11,650 21,173 3,411 6,671 10,082 24,275 6,645 5,681 220,453 156,008 27,8442012 128,847 14,313 143,160 10,304 11,793 22,097 3,292 6,763 10,055 26,715 2,001 5,006 209,034 146,452 28,8602013 124,398 13,257 137,655 9,619 11,637 21,256 3,137 6,628 9,765 24,918 2,056 4,277 199,927 140,792 27,884

2014 126,036 13,146 139,182 9,777 12,362 22,139 3,154 6,812 9,966 26,191 2,231 4,699 204,408 142,336 28,951

2015E 125,050 13,085 138,135 9,570 12,475 22,045 3,245 6,995 10,240 26,435 2,410 4,615 203,880 141,380 29,040Forecast

2016 124,055 13,025 137,080 9,420 12,635 22,055 3,340 7,200 10,540 26,590 2,590 4,570 203,425 140,420 29,2552017 123,140 12,955 136,095 9,310 12,870 22,180 3,435 7,410 10,845 26,850 2,770 4,560 203,300 139,530 29,5902018 122,245 12,905 135,150 9,235 13,125 22,360 3,525 7,615 11,140 27,055 2,945 4,550 203,200 138,675 29,9752019 121,365 12,855 134,220 9,195 13,395 22,590 3,610 7,820 11,430 27,270 3,130 4,545 203,185 137,830 30,4102020 120,485 12,810 133,295 9,190 13,680 22,870 3,690 8,020 11,710 27,485 3,310 4,525 203,195 136,985 30,8902021 119,585 12,760 132,345 9,215 13,975 23,190 3,770 8,215 11,985 27,690 3,490 4,525 203,225 136,115 31,4052022 118,690 12,715 131,405 9,270 14,285 23,555 3,850 8,410 12,260 27,925 3,675 4,520 203,340 135,255 31,9652023 117,785 12,655 130,440 9,350 14,610 23,960 3,930 8,605 12,535 28,060 3,860 4,510 203,365 134,370 32,5652024 116,875 12,595 129,470 9,465 14,965 24,430 4,010 8,795 12,805 28,310 4,040 4,500 203,555 133,480 33,2252025 115,960 12,545 128,505 9,600 15,340 24,940 4,090 8,990 13,080 28,500 4,230 4,490 203,745 132,595 33,9302026 115,045 12,480 127,525 9,775 15,735 25,510 4,170 9,185 13,355 28,735 4,410 4,495 204,030 131,695 34,6952027 114,130 12,420 126,550 9,985 16,150 26,135 4,250 9,380 13,630 29,010 4,585 4,485 204,395 130,800 35,5152028 113,225 12,340 125,565 10,205 16,580 26,785 4,330 9,575 13,905 29,340 4,760 4,480 204,835 129,895 36,3602029 112,345 12,260 124,605 10,440 17,040 27,480 4,410 9,770 14,180 29,525 4,935 4,465 205,190 129,015 37,2502030 111,495 12,175 123,670 10,705 17,520 28,225 4,490 9,960 14,450 29,850 5,110 4,470 205,775 128,160 38,1852031 110,685 12,095 122,780 10,990 18,015 29,005 4,570 10,160 14,730 30,155 5,275 4,465 206,410 127,350 39,165

2032 109,905 12,015 121,920 11,295 18,520 29,815 4,655 10,365 15,020 30,455 5,445 4,465 207,120 126,575 40,180

2033 109,155 11,930 121,085 11,610 19,045 30,655 4,740 10,580 15,320 30,755 5,610 4,460 207,885 125,825 41,235

2034 108,445 11,850 120,295 11,935 19,600 31,535 4,825 10,795 15,620 31,090 5,775 4,445 208,760 125,120 42,330

2035 107,780 11,765 119,545 12,280 20,175 32,455 4,915 11,020 15,935 31,365 5,940 4,445 209,685 124,460 43,475

2036 107,160 11,695 118,855 12,635 20,770 33,405 5,005 11,250 16,255 31,640 6,100 4,440 210,695 123,860 44,655

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -1.1% -2.3% -1.2% 2.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.5% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% N/A -2.6% -0.3% -1.1% 3.1%

2015-16 -0.8% -0.5% -0.8% -1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 0.6% 7.5% -1.0% -0.2% -0.7% 0.7%

2015-25 -0.8% -0.4% -0.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8% 5.8% -0.3% 0.0% -0.6% 1.6%

2015-36 -0.7% -0.5% -0.7% 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.9% 4.5% -0.2% 0.2% -0.6% 2.1%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TURBINE

85
TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE GENERAL

CALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL 

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*

2001 16,549 2,644 19,193 1,773 2,654 4,427 474 1,478 1,952 1,157 N/A 287 27,016 19,667 5,9052008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,5272009 11,730 1,903 13,634 2,215 3,161 5,376 755 2,248 3,003 1,286 286 178 23,763 14,389 7,6242010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,3112011E 11,844 1,782 13,626 2,463 3,407 5,870 757 2,654 3,411 1,203 278 181 24,570 14,383 8,5242012 11,442 1,766 13,207 2,733 3,418 6,151 731 2,723 3,454 1,243 169 180 24,404 13,938 8,8742013 10,706 1,646 12,352 2,587 3,488 6,076 636 2,312 2,949 1,191 173 135 22,876 12,989 8,3882014 10,395 1,573 11,967 2,613 3,881 6,494 818 2,424 3,242 1,244 165 158 23,271 12,786 8,9182015E 10,312 1,555 11,867 2,582 3,913 6,495 748 2,493 3,240 1,260 180 154 23,196 12,615 8,988Forecast

2016 10,225 1,541 11,767 2,564 4,016 6,580 739 2,585 3,323 1,283 194 152 23,300 12,505 9,1652017 10,151 1,530 11,681 2,556 4,164 6,720 737 2,680 3,417 1,311 208 152 23,490 12,417 9,4012018 10,084 1,519 11,603 2,554 4,315 6,869 756 2,775 3,531 1,337 223 152 23,714 12,359 9,6442019 10,023 1,510 11,532 2,561 4,464 7,025 774 2,871 3,645 1,364 238 152 23,956 12,307 9,8962020 9,946 1,505 11,451 2,570 4,619 7,189 799 2,967 3,766 1,391 253 152 24,201 12,250 10,155

2021 9,879 1,497 11,377 2,589 4,771 7,361 824 3,061 3,885 1,418 268 152 24,461 12,201 10,422

2022 9,800 1,495 11,295 2,611 4,921 7,531 849 3,150 3,999 1,448 284 151 24,708 12,144 10,681

2023 9,724 1,492 11,217 2,639 5,068 7,707 873 3,239 4,112 1,473 299 151 24,960 12,090 10,946

2024 9,650 1,490 11,141 2,671 5,227 7,899 896 3,317 4,213 1,505 315 151 25,223 12,036 11,216

2025 9,596 1,489 11,086 2,710 5,389 8,099 918 3,396 4,313 1,533 331 151 25,513 12,003 11,494

2026 9,536 1,489 11,025 2,764 5,548 8,311 940 3,475 4,415 1,564 347 151 25,813 11,965 11,786

2027 9,483 1,491 10,974 2,824 5,707 8,531 962 3,553 4,515 1,598 363 151 26,133 11,937 12,084

2028 9,424 1,492 10,916 2,885 5,877 8,762 984 3,630 4,614 1,632 379 151 26,454 11,900 12,392

2029 9,368 1,494 10,863 2,954 6,056 9,010 1,004 3,707 4,712 1,659 394 151 26,788 11,867 12,717

2030 9,321 1,496 10,817 3,032 6,236 9,268 1,024 3,783 4,807 1,691 410 151 27,143 11,841 13,050

2031 9,285 1,496 10,780 3,113 6,425 9,538 1,044 3,861 4,905 1,722 426 151 27,521 11,824 13,399

2032 9,240 1,498 10,738 3,198 6,610 9,808 1,064 3,941 5,005 1,753 442 151 27,896 11,802 13,749

2033 9,197 1,500 10,697 3,288 6,800 10,087 1,085 4,024 5,109 1,784 457 151 28,285 11,781 14,112

2034 9,158 1,502 10,660 3,379 6,994 10,373 1,105 4,107 5,212 1,818 473 150 28,687 11,766 14,480

2035 9,146 1,503 10,649 3,478 7,216 10,694 1,127 4,193 5,321 1,849 489 150 29,152 11,776 14,887

2036 9,119 1,505 10,623 3,575 7,422 10,997 1,149 4,281 5,430 1,876 505 150 29,582 11,772 15,278

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -3.3% -3.7% -3.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8% 3.7% 0.6% N/A -4.4% -1.1% -3.1% 3.0%

2015-16 -0.8% -0.9% -0.8% -0.7% 2.6% 1.3% -1.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.8% 8.0% -1.0% 0.4% -0.9% 2.0%2015-25 -0.7% -0.4% -0.7% 0.5% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.0% 6.3% -0.2% 1.0% -0.5% 2.5%

2015-36 -0.6% -0.2% -0.5% 1.6% 3.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 5.0% -0.1% 1.2% -0.3% 2.6%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

86
 

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER TOTAL LESS RATED 

DEC. 31 STUDENTS TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY PILOTS AT PILOTS PILOTS1

Historical*2001 94,420 316 N/A 243,823 120,502 144,702 7,727 8,473 619,963 475,261 315,276

2008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,2472009 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,4952010 119,119 2 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,001

2011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,1222012 119,946 218 4,493 188,001 116,400 145,590 15,126 20,802 610,576 464,986 311,9522013 120,285 238 4,824 180,214 108,206 149,824 15,114 20,381 599,086 449,262 307,1202014 120,546 220 5,157 174,883 104,322 152,933 15,511 19,927 593,499 440,566 306,0662015 122,729 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 590,039 435,309 304,329Forecast

2016 123,900 190 5,900 170,450 98,700 155,000 15,575 19,270 588,985 433,985 304,4002017 124,650 190 6,350 168,250 96,750 155,400 15,645 19,240 586,475 431,075 303,9002018 125,200 190 6,850 165,950 95,200 155,400 15,800 19,190 583,780 428,380 303,4502019 125,700 190 7,200 164,050 94,000 155,700 16,035 19,095 581,970 426,270 303,2502020 126,150 190 7,600 164,350 93,000 156,200 16,330 19,075 582,895 426,695 303,9502021 126,600 185 8,000 163,600 92,200 156,600 16,685 19,025 582,895 426,295 304,3002022 127,000 185 8,400 161,650 91,550 156,900 17,080 18,965 581,730 424,830 304,1502023 127,400 185 8,850 159,300 91,050 157,300 17,510 19,010 580,605 423,305 303,9502024 127,750 185 9,300 157,350 90,650 157,800 17,965 18,980 579,980 422,180 303,9002025 128,150 185 9,750 156,000 90,350 158,600 18,440 18,915 580,390 421,790 304,1002026 128,500 180 10,200 155,100 90,050 159,300 18,935 18,860 581,125 421,825 304,5502027 128,900 180 10,650 154,350 89,850 160,000 19,440 18,795 582,165 422,165 305,0002028 129,300 180 11,100 153,750 89,700 160,900 19,960 18,810 583,700 422,800 305,6502029 129,650 180 11,550 153,300 89,550 161,800 20,485 18,790 585,305 423,505 306,3002030 130,000 180 12,000 152,850 89,400 162,800 21,015 18,835 587,080 424,280 307,0002031 130,350 180 12,450 152,500 89,300 163,800 21,555 18,835 588,970 425,170 307,7002032 130,650 180 12,900 152,150 89,200 164,800 22,105 18,860 590,845 426,045 308,5002033 131,000 180 13,300 151,600 89,150 165,700 22,665 18,875 592,470 426,770 309,1502034 131,250 180 13,700 151,150 89,100 166,600 23,235 18,830 594,045 427,445 309,8502035 131,550 180 14,150 150,600 89,000 167,600 23,820 18,835 595,735 428,135 310,5502036 131,800 180 14,600 150,200 88,950 168,600 24,420 18,825 597,575 428,975 311,300Avg Annual Growth2001-15 1.9% -3.6% N/A -2.5% -1.2% 0.5% 5.1% 6.1% -0.4% -0.6% -0.3%

2015-16 1.0% 0.0% 7.6% -0.2% -2.4% 0.2% 0.1% -1.0% -0.2% -0.3% 0.0%2015-25 0.4% -0.3% 5.9% -0.9% -1.1% 0.2% 1.7% -0.3% -0.2% -0.3% 0.0%2015-36 0.3% -0.3% 4.8% -0.6% -0.6% 0.4% 2.2% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

87
 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE EXPERI- TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO- ROTORCRAFT MENTAL**/ JET

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER SPORT** AVGAS FUEL TOTAL

Historical*

2001 180 76 149 727 7 43 15 N/A 279 918 1,198

2008 143 69 230 1,313 11 162 23 1 248 1,706 1,954

2009 132 57 209 1,105 11 134 26 1 227 1,447 1,674

2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2011E 130 53 195 1,125 10 136 21 1 216 1,456 1,672

2012 126 54 209 1,077 10 149 16 1 206 1,435 1,641

2013 117 54 189 945 9 126 16 1 197 1,260 1,457

2014 120 48 199 1,135 11 132 29 1 210 1,466 1,676

2015E 119 48 196 1,140 10 135 31 1 208 1,471 1,680

Forecast

2016 118 47 192 1,165 10 140 31 1 207 1,497 1,704

2017 117 47 191 1,202 10 143 31 1 206 1,536 1,742

2018 116 46 190 1,239 10 148 32 1 206 1,576 1,782

2019 115 46 189 1,275 10 152 33 1 206 1,617 1,823

2020 114 46 190 1,313 11 157 34 1 206 1,660 1,866

2021 113 46 190 1,350 11 162 35 1 206 1,702 1,908

2022 113 46 191 1,378 11 165 35 1 206 1,734 1,940

2023 111 45 192 1,405 12 169 36 1 206 1,766 1,972

2024 111 45 193 1,435 12 172 37 2 206 1,800 2,006

2025 110 45 196 1,464 12 175 37 2 207 1,836 2,042

2026 109 45 199 1,492 13 180 38 2 207 1,871 2,077

2027 108 45 201 1,520 13 182 38 2 206 1,903 2,109

2028 107 45 205 1,549 13 185 39 2 207 1,939 2,146

2029 106 45 210 1,580 13 188 40 2 207 1,978 2,184

2030 106 45 214 1,611 14 192 40 2 207 2,017 2,224

2031 105 45 219 1,643 14 194 41 2 207 2,056 2,264

2032 104 45 225 1,674 14 198 42 2 208 2,096 2,304

2033 103 45 230 1,705 14 202 43 2 208 2,137 2,344

2034 103 45 235 1,736 15 206 43 2 208 2,177 2,385

2035 102 45 241 1,773 15 210 44 2 209 2,224 2,433

2036 101 45 247 1,805 15 215 45 2 209 2,267 2,476

Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -2.9% -3.3% 2.0% 3.3% 2.5% 8.6% 5.1% N/A -2.1% 3.4% 2.4%2015-16 -1.0% -0.9% -1.7% 2.1% -1.4% 3.2% 1.1% 8.0% -0.7% 1.7% 1.4%2015-25 -0.8% -0.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 6.1% -0.1% 2.2% 2.0%2015-36 -0.8% -0.2% 1.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.1% 1.9%*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

88
TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACTHistorical

2001 14,763 10,882 21,433 16,194 37,626 1,479 1,438 2,917 66,188 266 206

2008 13,780 11,032 17,493 14,081 31,574 1,285 1,246 2,531 58,917 264 239

2009 12,836 9,521 15,571 12,448 28,019 1,305 1,280 2,586 52,962 264 2442010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 2442011 12,866 9,279 14,528 11,437 25,965 1,319 1,311 2,630 51,123 264 2482012 12,873 8,994 14,522 11,608 26,130 1,309 1,270 2,579 50,755 264 2502013 12,776 8,803 14,117 11,688 25,806 1,275 1,276 2,552 50,057 264 2522014 13,015 8,440 13,979 11,675 25,654 1,270 1,245 2,515 49,624 264 2522015E 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,578 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,723 264 252Forecast

2016 14,498 7,499 13,903 11,776 25,679 1,292 1,203 2,495 50,172 264 2522017 15,000 7,390 13,942 11,822 25,765 1,292 1,203 2,495 50,651 264 2522018 15,562 7,177 13,982 11,869 25,851 1,292 1,203 2,495 51,086 264 2522019 16,168 6,916 14,022 11,916 25,938 1,292 1,203 2,495 51,517 264 2522020 16,834 6,641 14,062 11,963 26,026 1,292 1,203 2,495 51,996 264 2522021 17,561 6,294 14,103 12,011 26,114 1,292 1,203 2,495 52,464 264 2522022 18,350 5,837 14,144 12,059 26,203 1,292 1,203 2,495 52,885 264 2522023 18,980 5,544 14,184 12,108 26,292 1,292 1,203 2,495 53,311 264 2522024 19,373 5,528 14,226 12,156 26,382 1,292 1,203 2,495 53,778 264 2522025 19,706 5,579 14,267 12,206 26,473 1,292 1,203 2,495 54,253 264 2522026 20,053 5,631 14,309 12,255 26,564 1,292 1,203 2,495 54,743 264 2522027 20,403 5,685 14,351 12,305 26,656 1,292 1,203 2,495 55,239 264 2522028 20,751 5,738 14,393 12,355 26,749 1,292 1,203 2,495 55,733 264 2522029 21,096 5,792 14,436 12,406 26,842 1,292 1,203 2,495 56,225 264 2522030 21,440 5,847 14,479 12,457 26,936 1,292 1,203 2,495 56,719 264 2522031 21,786 5,902 14,522 12,509 27,031 1,292 1,203 2,495 57,214 264 2522032 22,147 5,958 14,566 12,561 27,126 1,292 1,203 2,495 57,726 264 2522033 22,518 6,016 14,609 12,613 27,222 1,292 1,203 2,495 58,251 264 2522034 22,906 6,075 14,653 12,666 27,319 1,292 1,203 2,495 58,795 264 2522035 23,299 6,137 14,698 12,719 27,416 1,292 1,203 2,495 59,348 264 2522036 23,695 6,199 14,742 12,772 27,514 1,292 1,203 2,495 59,904 264 252Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -0.5% -2.3% -3.1% -2.3% -2.7% -1.0% -1.3% -1.1% -2.0%

2015-16 5.4% -5.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2015-25 3.7% -3.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

2015-36 2.6% -1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

89
TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2001 15,879 11,308 19,270 3,465 49,9212008 14,443 11,048 15,763 2,400 43,6542009 13,302 9,623 14,151 2,399 39,4752010 13,174 9,511 13,864 2,438 38,9872011 13,068 9,349 13,503 2,375 38,2952012 13,045 8,977 13,424 2,332 37,7782013 12,914 8,797 13,048 2,225 36,9842014 13,186 8,390 13,018 2,229 36,8232015E 13,964 7,864 13,079 2,286 37,193Forecast

2016 14,702 7,426 13,040 2,286 37,4552017 15,203 7,303 13,101 2,286 37,8932018 15,761 7,064 13,156 2,286 38,2672019 16,362 6,771 13,211 2,286 38,6312020 17,024 6,465 13,270 2,286 39,0452021 17,745 6,080 13,328 2,286 39,4392022 18,525 5,572 13,380 2,286 39,7632023 19,150 5,244 13,434 2,286 40,1152024 19,544 5,221 13,495 2,286 40,5472025 19,879 5,272 13,558 2,286 40,9952026 20,228 5,323 13,622 2,286 41,4592027 20,580 5,377 13,686 2,286 41,9292028 20,930 5,431 13,750 2,286 42,3972029 21,277 5,484 13,814 2,286 42,8622030 21,624 5,539 13,879 2,286 43,3272031 21,973 5,593 13,944 2,286 43,7952032 22,335 5,648 14,010 2,286 44,2792033 22,709 5,707 14,078 2,286 44,7802034 23,099 5,767 14,147 2,286 45,3002035 23,495 5,830 14,217 2,286 45,8292036 23,894 5,894 14,288 2,286 46,361Avg Annual Growth2001-15 -0.9% -2.6% -2.7% -2.9% -2.1%2015-16 5.3% -5.6% -0.3% 0.0% 0.7%

2015-25 3.6% -3.9% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%2015-36 2.6% -1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1%Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

90
TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical

2001 24,866 8,303 8,025 4,039 45,2322008 23,895 10,179 7,671 3,649 45,3942009 22,407 8,562 6,332 2,993 40,2932010 22,342 8,624 6,550 2,982 40,4982011 23,432 9,010 6,557 2,228 41,2272012 23,651 8,932 6,472 1,860 40,9152013 23,205 8,673 6,440 1,676 39,9942014 24,267 8,507 6,741 1,830 41,3462015E 25,270 7,847 7,007 1,795 41,918Forecast

2016 25,975 7,711 7,061 1,795 42,5412017 26,692 7,579 7,119 1,795 43,1852018 27,371 7,424 7,161 1,795 43,7512019 28,049 7,257 7,198 1,795 44,2992020 28,771 7,089 7,242 1,795 44,8972021 29,456 6,944 7,281 1,795 45,4752022 30,097 6,780 7,307 1,795 45,9782023 30,767 6,614 7,338 1,795 46,5132024 31,511 6,456 7,380 1,795 47,1422025 32,237 6,339 7,425 1,795 47,7962026 32,885 6,320 7,475 1,795 48,4762027 33,548 6,299 7,528 1,795 49,1702028 34,219 6,274 7,582 1,795 49,8692029 34,895 6,244 7,635 1,795 50,5702030 35,570 6,220 7,690 1,795 51,2762031 36,207 6,241 7,746 1,795 51,9882032 36,861 6,263 7,803 1,795 52,7222033 37,534 6,286 7,863 1,795 53,4772034 38,229 6,310 7,927 1,795 54,2612035 38,929 6,345 7,994 1,795 55,0642036 39,631 6,388 8,063 1,795 55,876Avg Annual Growth2001-15 0.1% -0.4% -1.0% -5.6% -0.5%2015-16 2.8% -1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 1.5%2015-25 2.5% -2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3%2015-36 2.2% -1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.4%Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity

91