Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2019–2039) ................................................................................................ 1

Review of 2018 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................. 5

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... 7

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 8

Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 9

U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................11

Domestic Market................................................................................................................11

International Market ...........................................................................................................17

Cargo.................................................................................................................................21

General Aviation....................................................................................................................23

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................29

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................31

Commercial Space ................................................................................................................33

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA....................................................................34

FAA’s Operations Forecast................................................................................................36

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy .................................................................39

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................41

Trends in Model Aircraft and Forecast ...............................................................................41

Survey of Non-Model Aircraft Owners................................................................................43

Trends in Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast........................................................................45

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................49

Urban Air Mobility ..............................................................................................................50

Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................52

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................56

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................56

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................61

Enplanements....................................................................................................................61

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................62

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................62

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................63

Yield ..................................................................................................................................64

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................69

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................71
1 

Forecast Highlights (2019–2039)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility 

that was associated with these cycles was 

thought by many to be a structural feature of 

an industry that was capital intensive but 

cash poor. However, the great recession of 

2007-09 marked a fundamental change in 

the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. 

Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S. 

airlines revamped their business models to 

minimize losses by lowering operating costs, 

eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated 

new services that customers were willing to 

purchase and started charging separately for 

services that were historically bundled in the 

price of a ticket. The industry experienced 

an unprecedented period of consolidation 

with three major mergers in five years. The

results of these efforts have been impressive: 2018 marks the tenth consecutive year 

of profitability for the U.S. airline industry. 

Looking forward, there is confidence that 

U.S. airlines have finally transformed from a 

capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to 

an industry that generates solid returns on 

capital and sustained profits.

Fundamentally, over the medium and long 

term, aviation demand is driven by economic 

activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow 

over the long run. The 2019 FAA forecast 

calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger 

growth over the next 20 years to average 1.8 

percent per year. The uptick in passenger 

growth since 2014 will continue into 2019 

driven by generally positive economic conditions in the U.S. and the world. Oil prices averaged $64 per barrel in 2018 edging down 

to $61 in 2019, and our forecast assumes 

they will increase beginning in the early 

2020s to reach $98 by the end of the forecast

period. After a year of solid economic growth 

in 2018 for the U.S. and generally around the 

world, conditions are beginning to gradually 

ease. Some headwinds that have been present over the past few years remain, such as 

the uncertainty surrounding “Brexit” and the 

difficulty China faces in managing the slowdown of its economy. Meanwhile, new headwinds have developed, including a broad 

slowdown in global trade, political tensions in 

several countries, and economic slumps in Italy and Germany. The U.S. economy is 

showing signs of moderating from the abovetrend pace in 2018 as the expansion is 

poised to become the longest on record. 

Growth is expected to ease back towards 

trend with domestic demand supported by 

positive financial conditions, a strong labor 

market, and continuing effects of the 2017 

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. 

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.2 percent a year between 2019 and 2039. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.0 

percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is 

growing, especially in the regional jet market, 

where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030, 

replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.
2 

Although the U.S. and global economies saw 

solid growth in 2018, a combination of higher 

energy prices and labor cost increases resulted in profits for U.S. airlines falling further

from 2016’s record levels. The FAA expects 

U.S. carrier profitability to remain steady or 

increase as solid demand fed by a stable

economy offsets rising energy and labor 

costs. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel 

and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing 

U.S. and global economy.

The long-term outlook for general aviation is 

stable to optimistic, as growth at the high-end 

offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The active 

general aviation fleet is forecast to remain 

relatively level between 2019 and 2039. 

While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the 

turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft 

continues to shrink over the forecast. 

Against the stable fleet, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 0.8 percent per year 

through 2039, as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, 

and experimental hours more than offset a 

decline in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and 

business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased 

activity growth that has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at 

FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow

0.9 percent a year over the forecast period 

with commercial activity growing at five times 

the rate of non-commercial (general aviation 

and military) activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see 

much faster increases than small and nonhub airports, largely due to the commercial 

nature of their operations.
3 

Review of 2018

An improving economy at home and solid 

growth abroad translated into another good 

year for U.S. aviation in 2018. Airlines 

posted their tenth consecutive year of profits 

as they boosted revenue growth at the fastest rate since the recession. Revenues grew 

as the U.S. airline industry continues to shift

its emphasis from gaining market share to 

seeking returns on invested capital. U.S. airlines are continually updating their successful strategies for capturing additional revenue 

streams such as charging fees for services 

that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal 

service), charging for services that were not 

previously available (e.g. premium boarding 

and fare lock fees), as well as for maximizing 

fare revenue with more sophisticated revenue management systems. At the same 

time, the U.S. airline industry has become 

nimbler in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses, helping to raise 

yields for the first time in four years. These 

efforts secured industry profitability in 2018 

even as energy prices and new labor contracts lifted costs higher. 

Demand for air travel in 2018 picked up again 

after cooling in 2017 as economic growth in 

the U.S. accelerated. In 2018, system traffic 

as measured by revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) increased 4.8 percent while system 

enplanements grew 4.7 percent. Domestic 

RPMs were up 5.4 percent while enplanements were up by 5.0 percent. International 

 

1 Network carriers are: Alaska Airlines, American 

Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Air Lines.

RPMs increased 3.4 percent and enplanements grew by 2.8 percent. The systemwide load factor was 83.8 percent, up three 

tenths of a percent from the 2017 level. 

System yields increased for the first time 

since 2014. In domestic markets, expansion 

by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and 

Allegiant, as well as by mainline carriers such 

as United, helped to keep a lid on fare increases despite rising energy and labor 

costs as yields were unchanged. International yield rose a strong 5.6 percent as both 

the Atlantic and Latin regions gained sharply 

and the Pacific region reversed course after 

years of declines and posted a solid gain. 

Despite rising energy and labor costs, U.S. 

airlines remained solidly profitable in FY 

2018. Data for FY 2018 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $17.6 billion (compared to a 

$21.5 billion operating profit for FY 2017). 

The network carriers1 reported combined operating profits of $12.5 billion while the low 

cost carriers2 reported combined operating 

profits of $4.5 billion as all carriers posted

profits.

The general aviation industry recorded an increase of 9.2 percent in deliveries of U.S. 

manufactured aircraft in 2018, with pistons 

up by 5.5 percent and turbines up by 12.8 

percent. As the higher priced turbine deliveries improved significantly (as opposed to a 

2 Low cost carriers are: Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit 

Air Lines, Sun Country Airlines.
4 

flat performance last year), U.S. billings increased 9.0 percent to $11.6 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract 

tower airports recorded a 3.3 percent increase in 2018 as local activity rose 5.2 percent, more than offsetting a 1.8 percent decline in itinerant operations.

Total operations in 2018 at the 518 FAA and 

contract towers were up 2.9 percent compared to 2017. This marks the first time since 

FY 1997-2000 that operations at FAA and 

funded towers have increased for four consecutive years. Air carrier activity increased 

by 4.3 percent, more than offsetting a decline 

in air taxi operations, while general aviation 

rose 3.3 percent and military activity decreased 2.1 percent. Activity at large hubs 

rose by 1.9 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 3.5 percent and small hub

airport activity was up 1.5 percent in 2018 

compared to the prior year.
5 

Glossary of Acronyms 

Acronym Term

ANG FAA Office of NextGen

ARP FAA Office of Airports

ASMs Available Seat Miles

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CAPS COA Application Processing System

CBP Customs and Border Patrol

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

COAs Certification of Authorizations

CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International 

Aviation

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CY Calendar Year

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD Department of Defense

DoE Department of Energy

DoI Department of Interior

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GC Grand Challenge

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

ISS International Space Station

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability

LCC Low Cost Carriers

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act

NOTAM Notices to Airmen

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

PDARS Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles
6 

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

TSA Transportation Security Administration

UAM Urban Air Mobility

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

UASFM UAS facility maps

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
7 

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs. 

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Li Ding (202) 267-1846

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

• Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

• Data Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

Commercial Space Michelle Murray (202) 740-3119

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical 

publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/ 

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov
8 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2019-2039 
9 

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Markit projects that 

world economic growth will ease slightly from 

its 2018 rate of 2 percent as economies return to their long-run trend growth rates. 

Growth is projected at 2.9 percent in 2019 

and 2.8 percent in 2020. The U.S. economy 

is forecast to be supported by improved financial conditions but restrained by reduced 

government spending while European 

growth is pressured by weakness in manufacturing and widespread political uncertainty. Japan’s economic growth is projected 

to suffer from trade concerns and an increase in the consumption tax later in 2019. 

In emerging markets, China’s growth rate 

continues to gradually decelerate through 6 

percent, though supported by government 

stimulus, while other countries such as Brazil 

and Russia suffer from political uncertainties 

and relatively weak export demand. India is 

expected to post growth rates of about 7 percent as consumer spending slows and fiscal 

stimulus is reduced. 

IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow 

at 2.8 percent a year between 2019 and 

2039. Emerging markets, at 4.1 percent a 

year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Africa and Middle East, 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.6 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be

very slow at 0.9 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population.

7.2

6.6

2.9

2.3 1.9

1.3 0.7

3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Annual Percent Change

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2018

India China U.S. Russia Eurozone Brazil Japan World

Source: IHS Markit
10

The average crude oil price in 2018 was up 

28 percent from the year before to about $65

per barrel, continuing the increase seen in 

2017. IHS Markit is projecting slight moderation in prices in 2019 and 2020 due to supply growth, particularly in the U.S., followed 

by gradual increases in subsequent years. 

The price of oil is projected to increase over 

the long run due to growing global demand 

and higher costs of extraction. IHS Markit

forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of

crude to remain just shy of $100 per barrel 

by the end of the forecast horizon in 2039.

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.4

2.8

2.8

3.1

3.4

4.6

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

M.E. & Africa

Asia ex. China

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Markit, Feb 2019 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2019-2039

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Markit
11

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers3 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

The commercial air carrier industry in 2019 

will respond to four trends already underway: 

(1) selective capacity expansion; (2) steady 

growth of seats per aircraft, whether through 

up-gauging or reconfiguring existing aircraft; 

(3) increasing competitive pressure due to ultra-low-cost carrier expansion; and (4) increasing price discrimination4 through ancillary revenues and revenue management 

systems. 

Following the 2007-09 recession, the U.S. 

airline industry underwent considerable restructuring that has resulted in an unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 

and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank 

by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the 

events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 

3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. Since 

 

3 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats

2009, U.S. domestic ASMs have increased 

at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year 

while RPMs have grown 3.1 percent per 

year. Although those average rates of 

growth since the recession are modest, they 

conceal the fact that growth has been picking 

up over the period (4.6 percent and 4.7 percent a year since 2014, respectively). ASM 

growth has risen due to a variety of factors 

including upgauging and the expansion of ultra-low-cost carriers and the competitive response by major carriers, driven in large part 

by low fuel prices. Looking ahead to the 

near-term, that earlier restraint in ASM 

growth is likely to continue easing as some 

carriers have indicated plans to open new 

routes. As new service begins, competitors 

may respond by adding their own new 

routes, thus further boosting ASM growth.

The period of domestic capacity restraint 

since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional 

counterparts. In 2018, the mainline carrier 

group provided 14.8 percent more capacity 

than in 2007 while carrying 17.8 percent 

more passengers. Capacity flown by the regional group has risen just 0.5 percent over 

the same period (with passengers carried 

down 1.5 percent). 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.

4 Simply defined as the business strategy of selling largely similar products to different customers at different prices.
12

The regional market has continued to shrink 

as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; 

this has meant stagnant growth in enplanements and yields.

627 656 690 723 777 837 901

154 160 168 176

189

204

219

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

2018E 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional
13

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing some 

pilot shortages. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the 

pilot shortage while their capital costs have 

increased in the short-term as they continue 

to replace their 50 seat regional jets with 

more fuel-efficient 70 seat jets. The move to 

the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the 

future, however, since their unit costs are 

lower.

Growing seats per aircraft has been a 

longstanding trend for regionals that saw this 

measure rise by more than 55 percent over 

the decade from 1997 to 2007. The trend 

has slowed more recently, however, as regional seats per aircraft rose 28 percent over 

the ten years ending in 2018. 

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although the trend 

has been accelerating – the reverse of regionals' behavior. From 1997-2007, mainline 

seats per aircraft expanded just one-half of 

one percent. Since 2007, this measure has 

grown 9 percent.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

13.9 13.9

14.8

16.0

17.1

18.2

19.3

11.4 11.5

12.2

13.1

14.1

15.0

15.9

 -

 5.00

 10.00

 15.00

 20.00

 25.00

2018E 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
14

checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as 

boarding priority and internet access. After

posting record net profits in 2016, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined in the subsequent three years on rising fuel and labor 

costs, and flat yields. Nevertheless, profits 

remain solid and supported by ancillary revenues and the implementation of increasingly sophisticated revenue management 

systems. These systems enable carriers to 

price fares optimally for each day and time of 

flight and minimize foregone revenue. Besides this method of price discrimination, airlines are continuing to implement plans to 

further segment their passengers into more 

discreet cost categories based on comfort 

amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and power outlets. In 

2015, Delta introduced “Basic Economy” 

fares that provided customers with a main 

cabin experience at lower cost, in exchange 

for fewer options. By the end of 2017 these 

fares were available in 100% of Delta’s domestic network. In February 2017 American 

began offering its version in February 2017, 

and had expanded to the entire domestic 

network by September. United deployed its 

version of Basic Economy fares across its 

domestic network in May, but quickly pulled 

back the scale of deployment across its domestic network as negative revenue impacts 

were more than anticipated. 

 

5 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

The offering of Basic Economy fares has 

been part of an effort by network carriers to 

protect market share in response to the rapid 

growth low cost carriers (LCC) have 

achieved in recent years. While mainline enplanements have increased almost 18 percent since 2007, and regionals' have shrunk 

1.5 percent, low cost carrier enplanements 

have grown by 36 percent. RPMs over the 

same period show a similar pattern with 

mainline RPMs up almost 22 percent, regional RPMs up 6 percent and LCC RPMs 

fully 46 percent higher.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of 

domestic departures rose in 2016 for the first 

time since 2007 but then pulled back in 2017 

and rose again in 2018 leaving them about 

17 percent below the 2007 level. ASMs, 

RPMs and enplanements all grew in each of 

the past eight years; these trends underlie 

the expanding size of aircraft and higher load 

factors.5

 In 2018, the domestic load factor 

returned to 84.7 percent -- the historic high

first reached in 2016. Load factor is forecast 

to rise and peak around 86.6 percent in the 

future due to the logistical difficulties inherent 

in matching supply perfectly with demand.
15

System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity increased 4.4 percent to 

1.194 trillion ASMs in 2018 while RPMs increased 4.8 percent to 1.001 trillion. During 

the same period system-wide enplanements 

increased 4.7 percent to 880.5 million. In 

2018, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the 

domestic over the international market in 

terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 5.1 percent while international capacity was up just 2.9 percent. U.S. 

carriers' domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in 

2019 but carriers will start expanding capacity in international markets faster than domestic markets beginning in 2020 and this 

trend is projected to continue through 2039 

as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 5.0 percent in 2018 while regional carriers carried 3.3 percent more passengers. 

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements increased for the eighth consecutive 

year, up 5.4 percent, marking the first time 

since 2000 that the industry recorded eight 

consecutive years of passenger growth in 

the domestic market. Mainline passengers in 

international markets posted the ninth year of 

growth, up 2.9 percent. Domestic mainline 

enplanement growth is forecast to remain

solid, increasing at 4.6 percent in 2019 before slowing as economic activity cools and 

averaging 1.6 percent annually over the forecast. After slowing during the early part of 

the forecast, international enplanements are 

 84.0

 84.5

 85.0

 85.5

 86.0

 86.5

 87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2018E 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor
16

expected to accelerate to an average of 3.1 

percent through the forecast horizon.

With relatively robust demand, industry capacity growth was up 4.4 percent in 2018 after a 2.9 percent increase in 2017. The increased passenger volume and traffic offset 

declining yields and along with higher ancillary revenues and relatively low fuel prices, 

U.S. carriers were solidly profitable in 2018. 

Domestic mainline capacity is expected to 

match the pattern of enplanements with solid 

4.5 percent growth in 2019, followed by a few 

years of slower growth before returning to 

trend. International mainline enplanements 

are forecast to slow somewhat over the next 

two years before returning to growth of about 

3.4 percent through the remainder of the 

forecast.

System load factor rose by four tenths of a 

percentage point while trip length increased 

1.1 miles (0.1 percent) in 2018, even as 

seats per aircraft mile increased by 1.2 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using 

larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system-wide increased to 156.2 seats (up 1.8 

seats per aircraft mile), the highest level 

since 1990.
17

International Market

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets, 

only to be reversed again in 2018. Domestic 

enplanement growth is expected to outpace 

that of international markets for the next few 

years when longer term economic trends 

begin to reassert themselves. Average annual growth rates (FY 2019-2039) of the international market (comprised of mainline 

and regional carriers) for enplanements, 

RPMs and ASMs are all forecast at 3.0 percent.

Growth of major global economies has begun to slow from the above-trend rates of recent years. Several moderating factors are 

at work, including dampened credit growth, 

reduced global trade, political stresses, and

tighter U.S. monetary policy. The European 

and Japanese economies are generally seeing slow but positive growth, in part due to 

weak trade with Asia. In turn, this has been 

driven by China's continuing gradual slowdown which has been managed by the government and is unlikely to decline sharply. 

Overall, global conditions appear to be on a 

stable path but one with growth rates that are 

closer to long-term trends than the higher 

rates of the recent past. Combined with 

moderate oil prices, this presents a supportive environment for air travel demand.

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market
18

The next two years will see some reduction

in growth rates of international demand for 

the U.S. carriers with growth averaging 

around 1.5, 2.8, and 2.8 percent a year for 

enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs, respectively. Subsequently, demand picks up to average 3.0 percent throughout the forecast for 

each measure. Airlines will continue to 

match capacity growth with traffic growth and 

load factor is expected to stabilize around 

81.5%. Load factors this high were last seen 

in 2014. 

 (10.0)

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

 (10.0)

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International
19

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination despite the 

recent economic and political crises in Venezuela and Brazil. Enplanements in 2018 

grew an estimated 3.9 percent while RPMs 

increased 4.0 percent. Growth is projected 

to ease considerably in 2019 and 2020 as 

U.S. carriers trim capacity expansion to help 

stabilize yields. Enplanements and RPMs 

are forecast to increase 1.1 and 1.6 percent, 

respectively, in 2019. Over the twenty-year 

period 2019-2039, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average 

rate of 3.5 percent a year while RPMs grow 

3.8 percent a year. 

The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of 

enplanements despite the economic growth 

and potential of air travel to China and India. 

In 2018, U.S. carriers saw enplanements decline 4.4 percent from their 2017 levels, 

mainly due to declining enplanements to and 

from Japan, the region's largest market. 

Meanwhile, traffic (RPMs) increased by just

0.4 percent. Although the region is forecast 

to have the highest economic growth of any 

region over the next 20 years, led by China 

and India, U.S. carrier enplanements and 

RPMs for the Pacific region are forecast to 

grow a modest 2.2 and 2.4 percent a year, 

respectively. Traffic growth is relatively moderate in part because U.S. carriers continue 

to have a majority of their service in the region to Japan as opposed to faster growing 

markets. 

After slowing in 2015 and 2016, the Atlantic 

region saw a strong increase in enplanements of 4.9 percent as well as an increase 

in RPMs of 5.4 percent in 2018. However, 

the European economies are beginning to 

cool and with them enplanement and RPM 

growth will slow in coming years. Over the 

twenty-year period from 2019 to 2039, enplanements in the Atlantic region (including 

the Middle East and Africa) are forecast to 

grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent a year while RPMs grow 2.6 percent a 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2018E 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements
20

year. While Western Europe is a mature 

area with moderate economic growth, the 

economically smaller Middle East and Africa 

areas are expanding rapidly with GDP 

growth rates more than twice that of Europe. 

As a result, a larger share of the forecast aviation demand in the Atlantic region is linked 

to those two areas, particularly in the second 

half of the forecast period. 

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world increased an estimated 5.3 

percent in 2018 (244.2 million) as all regions 

posted gains led by a 7.1 percent increase in 

the Atlantic region. 

FAA projects total international passenger 

growth of 3.9 percent in 2019 as global economic growth eases with the highest growth 

expected in the Pacific region. Moderate 

global economic growth averaging 2.8 percent a year over the next 20 years (2019-

2039) is the foundation for the forecast 

growth of international passengers of 3.4 

percent a year, as levels double from 244 

million to 491 million. 

The Latin American region is the largest international market and is projected to grow at 

85 89 99 112 128 144 161

86 89 98

112

130

153

178

43 44

52

61

70

80

90

31 32

37

42

48

54

62

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2018 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
21

the fastest rate (3.5 percent a year) of any 

region over the forecast period. Within the 

region, Mexico and Dominican Republic are 

the two largest markets and are expected to 

post average annual growth rates of 3.3 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.

Powered by economic growth and rising incomes in China, India and South Korea, total 

passengers in the Pacific region are forecast 

to more than double to 90 million by 2039. 

From 2019 to 2039, passengers between the 

United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.6 percent a year. 

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are 

more mature markets and are projected to 

have somewhat slower growth than the Latin 

or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent

a year as an increasing share of the passengers in this region come from the Middle East 

and Africa markets. Though sizable and 

comparable to Mexico in passenger traffic, 

the Canadian transborder market is considerably smaller than the Atlantic region. With 

solid North American economic growth, Canada transborder passengers are forecast to 

grow at an annual average of 3.3 percent a 

year over the next 20 years. 

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 42.8 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2018, up 9.1 percent from 

2017 with domestic cargo RTMs increasing 

7.7 percent to 15.8 billion while international 

RTMs rose 10.0 percent to 27.0 billion. Air 

cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 78.7 percent of total RTMs in 2018, 

with passenger carriers flying the remainder. 

Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 9.5 percent in 2018 while total RTMs 

flown by passenger carriers grew by 6.7 percent. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic 

spans four regions consisting of Atlantic, 

Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, and globalization. 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) 

rely on several assumptions specific to the 

cargo industry. First, security restrictions on 

air cargo transportation will remain in place. 

Second, most of the shift from air to ground 

transportation has occurred. Finally, longterm cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs derive from models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs depend on growth 

in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs 
22

between passenger and all-cargo carriers 

based on an analysis of historic trends in 

shares, changes in industry structure, and 

market assumptions. 

After increasing by 9.1 percent in 2018, total 

RTMs are expected to grow 5.8 percent in 

2019. Because of steady U.S. and world 

economic growth, FAA projects total RTMs 

to increase at an average annual rate of 3.3

percent for the balance of the forecast period

(from 2019 to 2039). 

Following a 7.7 percent increase in 2018, domestic cargo RTMs are projected to grow 4.5

percent in 2019 as the U.S. economic recovery slows. Between 2019 and 2039, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 1.6 percent. In 2018, 

all-cargo carriers carried 90.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is 

forecast to grow modestly to 91.4 percent by 

2039 based on increases in capacity for allcargo carriers. 

International cargo RTMs rose 10.0 percent 

in 2018 after posting a 9.7 percent increase 

in 2017. Faster economic growth in the U.S. 

helped to fuel a pickup in worldwide trade. 

Growth in international RTMs remain strong 

in 2019 at 6.6 percent as global trade growth 

continues to be robust. For the forecast period (2019-2039) international cargo RTMs 

are forecast to increase an average of 4.0 

percent a year based on projected growth in 

world GDP with the Other International region having the fastest growth (5.1 percent), 

followed by the Pacific (4.3 percent), Atlantic

(3.1 percent), and Latin America regions (0.8 

percent), respectively. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers is forecast to increase 

from 72.1 percent in 2018 to 78.4 percent by 

2039. 
23

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association 

(GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet

by aircraft categories, which are applied to 

the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts 

are carried out for “active aircraft,”6 not total 

aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in May and January. 

The results of the 2017 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The estimate of the GA active fleet was in decline between 2007 and 2013, especially between 

2011 and 2013, primarily due to the impact 

of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration, which removed cancelled, expired or revoked records 

from the Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its first increase since 2008, which 

continued till 2016, and remained stable in 

2017. The active GA fleet was estimated as 

211,757 aircraft in 2017 (0.0 percent change 

from 2016), with 25.2 million hours flown (up 

1.5 percent from 2016).

In 2018, deliveries of the general aviation industry increased in both piston and turbine

segments. Single engine piston deliveries of 

the U.S. manufactured aircraft were up 3.5

percent, while the smaller category of multiengine piston deliveries went up by 41.5 percent. Business jet deliveries were up by 17.1

percent, and turboprop deliveries were up by 

8.6 percent. Based on figures released by 

GAMA, U.S. manufactured general aviation 

aircraft deliveries were 1,746 in CY 2018, 9.2 

percent more than CY 2017. They amounted 

to $11.6 billion in factory net billings. Overall 

piston deliveries were up 5.5 percent while

turbine shipments were up by 12.8 percent. 

 

6 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.
24

GAMA and industry experts also reported the 

previous slow increase in rotorcraft deliveries 

improved in 2018 in both piston and turbine 

segments. 

Against these current conditions, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The 

active general aviation fleet is projected to remain around its current level, with the declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet being offset by increases in the turbine, experimental, 

and light sport fleets. The total active general 

aviation fleet changes from an estimated 

212,875 in 2018 to 211,575 aircraft by 2039. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 15,255 aircraft -- an average rate of 2.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 

2.2 percent a year. The growth in U.S. GDP 

and corporate profits are catalysts for the 

growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

forecast period by 25,645 aircraft (an average annual rate of -0.9 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing 

cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new 

aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of 

the decline.

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent annually, adding 

about 2,890 new aircraft by 2039, more than 

doubling its 2017 fleet size. 

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shipments Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)
25

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to remain stable, the number of general aviation hours flown is forecast

to increase an average of 0.8 percent per 

year through 2039 from 25.2 million in 2017 

to 30.3 million, as the newer aircraft fly more 

hours each year. Fixed wing piston hours 

are forecast to decrease by 0.9 percent, the 

same rate as the fleet decline. Countering 

this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 

2.4 percent yearly over the forecast period. 

Jet aircraft are expected to account for most 

of the increase, with hours flown increasing 

at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent from 

2017 to 2039. The large increases in jet 

hours result mainly from the increasing size 

of the business jet fleet. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2009 2019 2029 2039

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
26

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, 

faces the challenges brought by lower oil 

prices, a trend which has been stabilizing. 

The low oil prices impacted utilization rates 

and new aircraft orders both directly through 

decreasing activity in oil exploration, and 

also through a slowdown in related economic 

activity. However, significant use in other activities such as air medical and training continues. Rotorcraft hours are projected to 

grow by 2.0 percent annually over the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.4 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 633,317

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2018. All pilot categories, with the exception 

of rotorcraft only and recreational only certificates, continued to increase. The FAA has 

currently suspended the student pilot forecast for the second year in a row. The number of student pilot certificates has been affected by two recent regulatory changes; 

first, the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for 

pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 

60 months. The second one, which went into 

effect in April 2016 removed the expiration 

date on the new student pilot certificates. 

The number of student pilots increased from 

72,280 in 2009 to 119,119 in 2010. By the 

end of 2016 they totaled 128,501 and with no 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2019 2029 2039

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
27

expiration of the new student certificates, 

jumped to 149,121 by the end of 2017 and 

167,804 by the end of 2018. The 2016 rule 

change generates a cumulative increase in 

the certificate numbers and breaks the link 

between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher. Because 

the change is new, there is not sufficient data 

yet to perform a reliable forecast for the student pilots.

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates. Commercial pilot numbers have been increasing for the last 

two years, as well as the ATP numbers. 

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to decrease about 13,250 (down 0.2 percent 

yearly) between 2018 and 2039. The ATP 

category is forecast to increase by 25,755 

(up 0.7 percent annually). The much smaller 

category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 3.0 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private 

and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate 

of 0.6 and 0.1 percent, respectively until 

2039. 
28

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2008 2018 2028 2039

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Air Transport Pilots

Rotorcraft only
29

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9

percent a year through 2039 from 51.8 million in 2018 to close to 62 million in 2039.

Commercial operations7

 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 

five times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations 

is less than the growth in U.S. airline passengers (1.5 percent versus 2.0 percent) over 

the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load 

factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers 

without increasing the number of flights. 

General aviation operations (which accounted for 51.2 percent of operations in 

2018) are forecast to increase an average of 

0.4 percent a year as increases in turbine 

powered activity more than offset declines in 

piston activity. 

The growth in operations at towered airports 

is not uniform. Most of the activity at large 

and medium hubs8 is commercial in nature, 

given that these are the airports where most 

 

7 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

8 Large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more 

of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in 

FY 2018. There are 30 airports in this category. 

Medium hub is defined to have at least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total U.S. revenue 

passenger enplanements in FY 2018. There are 

31 airports classified as medium hubs. 

of the passengers, about 88 percent in 2018, 

in the system fly to.

Given the growth in airline demand and most 

of that demand is at large and medium hubs,

activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than small 

towered airports including small FAA towers9

and FAA contract towers10. The forecasted 

annual growth is 1.6 percent at large hubs, 

9 Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor 

FAA contract towers.

10 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers providing air traffic control services under 

contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic 

control specialists.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2009 2019 2029 2039

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower 

Operations

Commercial Non Commercial
30

1.3 at medium hubs, 0.5 percent at small 

FAA towers and FAA contract towers between 2019 and 2039. 

Among the 30 large hubs, the airports with 

the fastest annual growth forecast are those 

located along the coastal sections of the 

country where most large cities are located. 

Large cities have historically shown to generate robust economic activity, which in turn 

drives up the airline demand. On the other 

hand, the airports forecast to have slower annual growth tend to be located in the middle 

of the country. 

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations11 are forecast to grow 

slightly faster than at towered facilities. This 

is in part a reflection of the different mix of 

activity at Tracons. Tracon operations are 

forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year between 2018 and 2039. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 

2018 and are projected to grow 1.5 percent 

 

11 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to 

grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. 

Growth in airline traffic and business aviation 

is expected to lead to increases in activity at 

En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, 

aircraft handled at En-Route centers are 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.4

percent a year. Activity at En-Route centers 

is forecast to grow faster than activity at towered airports because more of the activity at 

En-Route centers is from the faster growing 

commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the 

general aviation activity at towered airports, 

which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights.
31

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,397 in 

2018 to 8,806 in 2039, an average annual 

growth rate of 0.9 percent a year. Increased 

demand for air travel and growth in air cargo 

is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2018 and 2039 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 4,241 to 5,197, a net average of 

51 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at JetBlue and A220-series at 

Delta) is projected to grow 46 aircraft a year 

as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current 

technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with 

the next generation MAX and Neo families. 

The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 

14 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 

787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-

300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. 

passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases 

by 3 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,298 aircraft in 2018 to 2,022 in 

2039 as the fleet shrinks by 12.0 percent 

(276 aircraft) between 2018 and 2029. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire 

older small turboprop and piston aircraft, 

while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the 

E-2 family after 2020. By 2031 only a handful 

of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2039, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,877, up from 1,795 in 2018. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by 71% from 503 in 2018 to 145 by 

2039. These aircraft account for just 7.2 percent of the fleet in 2039, down from 21.9 percent in 2018. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 858 aircraft in 2018 

to 1,587 aircraft in 2039 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by 7 aircraft a 

year as 757’s and 737-800’s are converted 

from passenger use to cargo service. The 

wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 

28 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 777-200, 

and new and converted 767-300 aircraft are 

added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11, 

A300/310, and 767-200 freighters. 
32

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2008 2018 2028 2039

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
33

Commercial Space

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also 

direct the U.S. Department of Transportation 

to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. 

commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is 

to license and regulate commercial launch 

and reentry operations and non-federal 

launch sites to protect public health and 

safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of 

the United States. With its dual mission of 

regulating and also promoting the emerging 

commercial space transportation industry, 

FAA faces unique challenges. 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the 

United States. The FAA does not license 

launches or reentries the U.S. Government 

carries out for the Government (such as 

those operated for and by NASA or the Department of Defense). FAA does not license 

or grant permits for amateur-class rockets, 

which are unmanned rockets that have less 

than 200,000 pound-seconds of total impulse 

and cannot reach an altitude greater than 

150 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. 

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs 

the following major functions:

• Maintains an effective regulatory 

framework for commercial space

transportation activities by developing regulations and guidance, 

• Provides guidance to prospective 

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for

obtaining an authorization and operating safely, 

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space

activities,

• Evaluates applications for licenses

for launch and reentry site operations, 

• Monitors and enforces regulatory 

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

and other regulated commercial 

space activities,

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

or reentry,

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) by coordinating airspace

use and regulatory oversight with air 

traffic management and Federal

launch ranges, 

• Coordinates research into the safety, 

environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the

evolving commercial space transportation industry, 

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space industry by hosting working 

groups and conferences, 
34

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as NASA, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency 

(DARPA), and the U.S. Air Force to 

assure consistent approaches to regulation, policy, and standards, and

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world.

In addition to AST headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains field offices near active launch ranges to facilitate 

communication with space launch operators 

and to implement FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are 

currently assigned to four field offices in 

close proximity to: Kennedy Space Center in 

Florida, Johnson Space Center in Texas, 

and Vandenberg Air Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. Due 

to industry expansion, FAA is considering 

additional field offices to accommodate the 

anticipated increase in launch and reentry 

operations in other parts of the United 

States. FAA also directly supports NASA’s 

commercial space initiatives by providing 

on-site staff at both the Johnson Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to coordinate 

the FAA’s regulatory and enforcement activities with NASA’s development and operational requirements for commercial space.

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of 

FAA

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many important activities performed by FAA during this cycle. The most 

notable activities are described here. 

Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses, 

Experimental Permits and Safety Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, 

FAA assists them in identifying potential obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. The growth in both the number 

of commercial space operators and the number of operations will likely increase FAA’s 

pre-application consultation workload over 

the next five years. Furthermore, many new

operators are seeking to incorporate new

technologies, vehicle types, or operational

models that create challenges for FAA in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance. 

Licenses, Permits and Safety Approvals

An increasing number of applicants for licenses, permits, safety approvals, and renewals has a direct impact on the number of 

launches and reentries at some uncertain 

point in the future. Though many licenses

authorize multiple launches (for mature 

launch systems), the need remains for FAA

to also issue individual launch licenses for 

systems that are still maturing, especially 

those systems for human space flight missions. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial space industry, FAA often evaluates

launch and reentry systems and operations

that are evolving and changing, which may 

ultimately require license modifications or issuance of new licenses.

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 
35

health and safety or the safety of property, 

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States. 

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

or payload determination becomes part of 

the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing 

determination is based.

FAA also reviews and issues launch and 

reentry site operator licenses and license renewals. FAA additionally reviews and evaluates launch site license applications for 

launch sites located in foreign countries but 

operating with U.S.-licensed launch or 

reentry systems. FAA coordinates range 

planning among Federal, state, and local

governments and with the commercial range 

operators or users. As part of the evaluation

of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also 

conducts environmental reviews consistent

with its responsibilities under the National 

Environmental Policy Act. 

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety approvals for space launch systems 

equipment, processes, technicians, training

and other supporting activities. FAA reviews

safety approvals to support the continued introduction of new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications.

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive 

safety analyses to support the evaluation and

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance and

capabilities of space flight crews to determine how human factors affect overall public 

safety risk. As commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, FAA will evaluate, analyze, and determine the health risks to the space flight participants (crew and “passengers”) due to natural and flight-induced launch and reentry 

environments, as well as any hazardous

ground operations directly associated with 

the flight. FAA will also need to evaluate the

safety of ground operations at spaceports 

and exclusive-use sites. 

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 400 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year, often 

conducting several inspections simultaneously, at any of the approximately 20 U.S. 

and international commercial space launch 

sites. The establishment of non-federal 

launch sites requires additional inspections

in areas such as ground safety that have traditionally been overseen by the U.S. Air 

Force at Federal ranges. At spaceports and

launch sites with high launch rates (e.g., 

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, and Spaceport America), 

at least 85 percent of the inspections must be

conducted by locally-based field inspectors 

in order to respond to a dynamic operational

tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency. 

Mishap Investigations

Recent mishap events have demonstrated

that FAA must have the capacity to investigate at least two space launch or reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously anywhere 

in the world, and to lead/oversee as many as

six investigations during a single year. FAA

must have the capabilities and resources to 
36

safely perform the investigations lasting as

long as 16 weeks at remote sites with limited

infrastructure or facilities. FAA must have 

the capability and resources to efficiently review all applicant mishap plans and accident 

investigation procedures as part of the license and permit evaluation process. 

NAS Integration

The FAA works in partnership across all its 

organizations to ensure the safe and efficient

integration of commercial space operations

with aviation activities. This includes an increased presence at the Air Traffic Control 

System Command Center and other locations to assist in the strategic and tactical 

planning of launch and reentry operations, as

well as to provide support during these operations. Further, FAA will continue the development of technologies to facilitate safe and

efficient integration of commercial launch

and reentry operations into the NAS, including technologies to improve the integration of 

launch and reentry data into FAA air traffic 

control systems and technologies to improve 

the timely and accurate development and

distribution of notices of aircraft hazard areas. 

FAA’s Operations Forecast

To improve its workforce planning process, 

in 2014, FAA adopted an approach to estimate its future staffing needs based on the

ratio of regulatory safety oversight staff to a 

forecast of launch and reentry operations 

within the purview of the FAA mission. Although it was a modest improvement, this 

change set the groundwork for FAA to implement a more objective and transparent process for projecting staffing requirements and 

also necessitated development of credible operations forecasts. Since 2014, FAA has 

made several important improvements to its 

operations forecast: 

• In 2015, FAA began using planned

launch and reentry data collected

from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its 

launch and reentry forecasts. This 

change enabled FAA to simplify and

improve its forecasting methodology 

by tying launch and reentry forecasts 

directly to anticipated operations by 

commercial space transportation firms 

known to FAA, rather than to aggregate industry demand.

• Because commercial spaceflight is a 

highly dynamic and rapidly evolving 

industry, it was quickly determined 

that operator-provided data alone 

were not a reliable indicator of future 

activity. There is a natural, inherent 

bias by industry to be optimistic 

about their business prospects. 

Consequently, FAA adopts a cautionary view of what industry representatives say will happen versus 

what may reasonably be expected to 

happen. A primary pillar of FAA’s 

forecasting methodology is to err on 

the side of caution and take a conservative view of industry growth. 

Therefore, in 2016, FAA began refining its forecasting methodology by

using observations about historical 

launch activity to establish better 

forecasting parameters for both new

applicants and existing operators. 

Based on proprietary information available 

to FAA, an increase in launch and reentry activities expected in the coming years. There 

are several factors that magnify the challenges associated with predicting the number of launches and reentries to expect in a 

given year. They include:

• the list of firms intending to launch or 

actually launch is dynamic, 
37

• the continued development of new 

technologies, 

• launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,

• dynamic nature of flight test programs, and 

• mishaps. 

For example, the number of firms actively 

communicating with FAA increased from 14 

in August of 2014 to 79 four years later, an 

increase of more than 550 percent. New 

technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles 

(RLVs)] allow a faster operational tempo, and 

at the same time, early use of these technologies can increase the probability of a mishap. A mishap can derail launch plans for 

one or more firms. Investigations and subsequent “return to flight” for firms impacted by a 

mishap can take months to years. 

Taking these factors into account, the following table and graph provide historical activity 

and FAA’s forecast through fiscal year 2021. 
38

Fiscal Year Actual/Forecast FAA Licensed and Permitted 

Launches and Reentry Operations

2013 Actual 20

2014 Actual 20

2015 Actual 14

2016 Actual 17

2017 Actual 22

2018 Actual 35

2019 Forecast 33 – 44

2020 Forecast 35 – 54

2021 Forecast 33 – 56

Notes:

1. Forecast entries represent the Low to High estimate.

2. Six mishaps in 2015 caused the number of launch and reentry operations to fall 

significantly from the previous year rather than increase as expected.
39

It is important to note that the operations included in the forecast will occur at a variety 

of locations throughout the National Airspace 

System (NAS). That is, not all launch and 

reentry activity occurs at one location, for example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the NAS and beyond, including multiple reentries in the Pacific Ocean 

and one licensed launch from New Zealand. 

Furthermore, the forecast above only accounts for launches and reentries licensed 

by FAA. It does not include launch activity 

for the rest of the world, and it is not tied exclusively to satellite demand.

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast 

Accuracy

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly 

evolving industry. The industry’s growth 

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging on an Accelerated 

Basis 

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies

and new approaches to space launch and

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their rockets, a development that 

could significantly reduce the cost of operations and lead to an increase in the number 

of launch and reentry operations per year. 

Other U.S. commercial entities are also pursuing the development of reusable launch

vehicles (RLVs). At the same time, state and

local governments are joining with commercial firms to promote additional launch and

reentry sites, and some firms are seeking to 

establish launch sites for their exclusive use. 

This added launch capacity sets the stage for 

simultaneous operations and an increase in 

the number operations per year.

New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation are Emerging 

The continuing development of commercial

space transportation technology has spurred

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As private industry continues 

to develop and test new vehicles capable of 

taking space flight participants on suborbital 

and orbital flights, companies and organizations are proposing to offer human space

flight training and several organizations have 

already begun to provide this service. States

and municipalities have sought to open new

spaceports to attract commercial space

transportation and associated high-tech

firms and create business hubs for research 

and development. Since 2008, the NASA

has managed the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services from commercial providers 

to deliver cargo to and from the International 

Space Station (ISS). NASA is also working 

with commercial companies under its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities

contract to develop vehicles that will provide

transportation for astronauts and international partners to and from the ISS. Commercial Crew vehicles developed by 

SpaceX and Boeing are expected to commence test flights during 2019, followed by

crewed operational launches licensed by the 

FAA. NASA is also seeking proposals from 

industry for a program called Commercial Lunar Payload Services. The commercial vehicles used by NASA for cargo and crew transportation will have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the

commercial space transportation industry as 
40

a whole. In 2018, DARPA announced the 

DARPA Launch Challenge, which incentivizes the commercial space industry to design 

launch systems with the ability to launch 

small payloads to orbit on extremely short 

notice, with no prior knowledge of the payload, destination orbit or launch site, and do 

it not just once, but twice, in a matter of days. 

DARPA required launch operators to submit 

applications in March 2019 and expects the 

competition launches to occur at the end of 

2019. Historically, prizes such as the Ansari 

X PRIZE and the Northrop Grumman Lunar 

Lander Challenge have caused a surge in 

commercial space licensing activity, so we 

expect the same from the DARPA Launch 

Challenge.

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers. 

Extensive FAA resources will be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests.
41

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Over the last 5 years, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have been experiencing healthy

growth in the United States and around the 

world. UAS consists of the unmanned aircraft platform and its associated elements--

including communication links, sensors, software and power supply-- that are required for 

the safe and efficient operation in the national airspace system (NAS). While the introduction of UAS in the NAS has opened up 

numerous possibilities, it has also brought 

operational challenges including safe integration into the NAS. Despite these challenges, the UAS sector holds enormous 

promise. Uses may include modelers experimenting with small UAS (sUAS), performing 

numerous functions including aerial photography and personal recreational flying. At 

the same time commercial operators may be 

experimenting with package and medical 

supply delivery and providing support for 

search and rescue missions. 

This section provides a broad landscape 

covering model and non-model aircraft12 and 

their recent trends as gleaned from trends in 

registration, overall market and operational 

information. Using these trends and insights 

from industry, the FAA has produced several 

areas of forecasts for UAS. Forecasts reported in this section are driven primarily by 

the assumption of continuing evolution of the 

regulatory environment (i.e., unconstrained 

environment), the commercial ingenuity of 

manufacturers and operators and underlying 

demand, including business models. The 

 

12 These are also called, interchangeably, hobby 

and non-hobby UAS, respectively. In previous 

FAA will continue to enable the thriving UAS 

industry, with the safe integration of UAS into 

the NAS.

Trends in Model Aircraft and Forecast

The FAA’s online registration system went 

into effect on Dec. 21, 2015. This required

all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds 

(250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be 

registered using the on-line system 

(https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/registration/) or by using the existing (paper-based) aircraft registry. In May, 

2017, a U.S. Appeals Court Order caused a 

temporary halt in UAS registration. Subsequently, the registration requirement for all

model aircraft owners was reinstated in December 2017 with the 2018 National Defense 

Authorization Act (NDAA). Despite the temporary halt, registration’s pace continued beyond May, 2017. The latest FAA reauthorization codifies the requirement [see 

https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=91844 for more details]. 

With the continuing registration, more than 

900,000 owners had already registered with 

the FAA by Sept. 2018. Monthly owner registration averaged around 8,000-9,000 during Jan.-Dec., 2018, with some expected 

peaks during the holiday season and summer. 

notes including other documents of the Agency, 

these terms are often interchanged. 
42

The pace of registration in 2018 slowed considerably compared to 2016 and 2017. 

Monthly owner registration now stands at 

half of what was observed a year ago.

Model registration and thus ownership of 

sUAS is distributed throughout the country. 

Using the data as available in Sept 2018, a

spatial distribution of ownership by zip code 

below demonstrates that sUAS continue to 

be distributed throughout the country with 

denser ownership mapping closely against 

the population centers of the country, as expected. 

 

13 This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of craft corresponding to ownership registration. As craft becomes sturdier and operators situationally aware, 

Unlike non-model counterparts, the registration rules do not require modelers to register 

each individual aircraft; only owners are registered. Each owner registers, and each 

owner might have multiple UAS. Exceptions 

may be registered modelers with no owned 

equipment. Notwithstanding these challenges, there is information available for both 

industry and academia, allowing us to understand aircraft ownership. Furthermore, under the sponsorship of the UAS Integration 

Research Plan, the Agency has launched 

various research activities to understand the 

possible magnitude of the sector as well as 

implications for likely aircraft that may be

used for model flying and safety implications 

for the UAS fleet from gradual integration into 

NAS. The forecasts presented use all available resources to analyze and forecast both 

model and non-model activities in the U.S. 

With over 900,000 modelers registered as of 

December 31, 2018, we estimate that there 

are around 1.25 million drones distinctly 

identified as model aircraft. Comparing with 

industry sales and other data noted above, 

we conclude that model aircraft is almost 40

percent higher than ownership registration13. 

A comparison of last year’s data with this 

year’s (2018) shows that the annual growth 

rate to be around 13 percent. This continues 

to be substantial growth as anticipated from 

the introduction of drones as a recreation activity facilitated by falling equipment prices 

and improved technology, such as built-in 

cameras and relatively easy maneuvering. 

we expect this rate to change dynamically over 

time. 
43

However, like in all other technologies including hobby items, (e.g., cell phones and video 

game consoles; and prior to that, video cameras, and video players), the trend in model 

aircraft is likely to slow as the pace of falling 

prices diminishes and the early adopters 

begin to experience limits in their experiments or simply eagerness plateaus. 

Given the trend in registration and market developments, we forecast that the model aircraft market will saturate at around 1.4 million 

units. However, there are still some upside 

uncertainties due to further changes in technology and the likely event of continuously 

falling prices. This yields to some upside uncertainty in the forecast. We do not anticipate similar symmetry in low side as it parallels to the growth in the base projection. 

Nevertheless, we provide a forecast base 

(i.e., likely) with high (or optimistic) and low 

(or pessimistic) scenarios, provided in the table above. The FAA projects, unlike in previous years, that this sector may have exhausted downside risks; i.e., decline in registration beyond saturation as captured by 

base forecast. 

We use the trend observed in registrations, 

particularly over the past year, expert opinions collected in TRB annual workshops, review of available industry forecasts, market/industry research, and a time-series 

model on registration trends. Using these, 

we forecast that the model fleet will likely 

(i.e., base scenario) attain its peak over the 

next 5 years, climbing from the present 1.25 

million units to around 1.39 million units by 

2023. The high/optimistic scenario may be 

estimated at 1.66 million units over the next 

5 years. As evident, the growth rates underlying these numbers are fairly steady in the 

initial years but are diminishing faster in the 

last 2-3 years. The gradual saturation that is 

projected in 5 years and beyond in the model 

aircraft fleet parallels other consumer technology products.

Survey of Non-Model Aircraft Owners

Before we describe non-model sUAS trends 

and forecasting in the next section, we provide a brief overview of results from a prototype survey that the FAA undertook during 

June-July, 2018. The results provide likely 

growth path in the near future. The survey, 

based on a well-tested questionnaire, was 

sent by the FAA to individuals registered by 

December 31, 2017 and conducting activities 

under Part 107 (i.e., non-model or commercial activities) in that year. The response rate 

to the survey was approximately 8 percent

(7,400 responses from 89,000 contacted). 

The survey was designed primarily to get a 

snapshot of non-model/commercial mission 

characteristics including location, types of 

aircraft used, and altitude flown. In addition 

to providing the FAA key data in understanding operational characteristics of non-model 

activities throughout the country, these key 

metrics are also important for understanding 

trends in non-model activities and likely 

growth trajectory in the near future. 

Total Recreation/Model Fleet

(Million sUAS Units)

year Low Base High

2018 1.25 1.25 1.25

2019 1.29 1.31 1.35

2020 1.31 1.35 1.44

2021 1.31 1.37 1.52

2022 1.32 1.38 1.59

2023 1.32 1.39 1.66
44

Registrants with one aircraft and those who 

owned/operated multiple aircraft responded 

almost equally as the figure above shows. 

The average number of aircraft among multiple registrants was around 3 with a margin of 

error of + 0.2. Survey sample was representative when checked against the population from the Registry.

The survey reveals that most of the nonmodel UAS are light UAS, those weighing 5 

lbs or less. This result was the same as in 

the Registry. The figure below shows the 

distribution among the responses from single 

sUAS users: 

A similar distribution is reflected in responses 

from multiple aircraft owners, although the 

weight of the classes are skewed more towards the medium (5-24 lbs) and heavy (25-

55 lbs): 

Turning to distribution of ownership, we observe that almost 1 in 3 survey respondents 

used one sUAS compared to 55 percent from 

the population (i.e., the Registry). For those 

who operate multiple sUAS, a large group 

(54 percent) falls into the category of operating 2-9 sUAS, as compared to only 1 in 3 in 

that category from the Registry or population 

counts. For operators with over 10 sUAS, 

survey response (15 percent) were closer to 

what we observe in the Registry (12 percent). 

This distribution provides valuable information regarding the use intensity of sUAS 

by both single and multiple owners. 

Bigger variations are observed between single and multiple sUAS when asked about in-
45

tensity of operations as captured by the number of missions14 in 2017. It is apparent from 

the table below, the more one operates (i.e., 

multiple owners) sUAS, the more missions 

they fly during the year; i.e., over twice as 

many as the single operator. On average, 

while a single operator flies 32 missions/year, multiple owner/operators flew 

more than twice that number (82 missions, 

on average): 

Trends in Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast

Unlike model ownership, rules for non-model 

registration require owners to register each 

sUAS, thus giving a one-to-one correspondence between registration and aircraft. For 

the calendar year 2018, more than 175,000 

non-model owners/operators registered their 

equipment. The pace of monthly registration, almost 15,000, is nearly 3-times higher 

than the pace at which non-model aircraft 

owners registered their craft during the same 

time last year. While the pace of model registration ownership has slowed down considerably, interestingly, the pace of registration 

is accelerating for non-model counterparts. 

By the end of 2018, there were more than 

277,000 non-model aircraft registered since 

registration opened. 

Since the registration process has been 

available through Dec 2017, over 4,600 aircraft per month have been registered. This 

 

14 Missions were described as a job or economic 

activity consisting of many take-offs/landings. 

pace accelerated to 14,600 registrations a 

month during the last year (2018). The nonmodel sector is primarily commercial in nature. It is dynamic and appears to be at an 

inflexion point of demonstrating powerful 

stages of growth. Unlike the model sector, 

we anticipate that the growth rate in this sector will continue to accelerate over the next 

few years. Since initiation of Part 107, there 

has been proposed rule changes (see 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-00732/operation-ofsmall-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people. The requirements would address operations over people, operations at night without waivers and possibilities for waivers including enhancement of operational efficiencies. They would also address more commercial uses that will likely facilitate further 

growth. Notably, a single point for submission of all operational information, including 
46

registration, authorization, and accident logging, helps facilitate this growth further 

[https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/]. 

As in the case of model UAS ownership, nonmodel sUAS are distributed across the country. A spatial distribution of equipment registration (using data for September 2018) 

demonstrates that non-model sUAS are distributed throughout the country with denser 

activities mapping closely against the economic or commercial activities of the country. 

Last year, we forecasted that the non-model 

sector would have around 229,400 sUAS in 

2019, a growth rate exceeding 44 percent

from the year before (2018). Actual data far 

exceeds that trend with over 277,000 aircraft 

already registered by the end of 2018. Our 

forecast of non-model sUAS last year thus 

 

15 Last year, this ratio (from base year of forecast 

to end-year of forecast) was 4-times; i.e., we projected forecast to be 4-times the base year’s 

(2017) numbers in 5-year. 

fell short by almost 80 percent for 2018 (or 

277,000 actual aircraft vs 158,900 that we 

projected last year). The significant growth 

in this sector over the past year demonstrates the uncertainty and potential of the 

market. 

Given the trend observed in the registrations, 

information from the survey, review of available industry forecasts, and internal research, together with market/industry research, we project that the non-model fleet 

by 2023 will likely (i.e., base scenario) be 

three times larger than the current number of 

non-model aircraft15. As the present base 

(i.e. cumulative total) gets larger, we anticipate the growth rate of the sector will slow 

down over time. Nevertheless, the sector will 

be much larger than what we understood as 

recently as last year. Given the accelerated 

registration over the last year, we now project 

the non-model sUAS sector will have over 

835,000 aircraft in 2023 (i.e., end of 5-year 

period). Important to note here is that last 

year’s forecasted sUAS for 2022 (452,000 

units) will be surpassed sometime towards 

the later part of 2019 or early 2020 if the present registration trend continues. This will 

shorten the forecast outcome period by almost 2-3 years.

In order to understand the growth trajectory 

of the sector better, we divide the non-model 

sector into two types of UAS aircraft: consumer grade and professional grade. The 

consumer grade non-model aircraft are 

priced in a wide range, somewhere below US 
47

$10,000 with an average unit price of around 

$2,500. The professional grade is typically 

priced above US $10,000, with an average 

unit price assumed to be around $25,00016. 

For both consumer grade and professional 

grade aircraft, the average price has been 

falling over time, particularly over the last 

three years. Currently, the consumer grade 

dominates the non-model sector with a market share approaching 95 percent. However, 

as the sector matures and the industry begins to consolidate, the share of consumer 

grade non-model aircraft is likely to decline 

but will still be dominant. By 2023, FAA projects this sub-sector will have around 85 percent share of the overall non-model sUAS 

sector. 

Starting from a low base of around 13,000 

aircraft in 2018, professional grade nonmodel sUAS sub-sector stands to expand 

rapidly over time, especially as newer and 

more sophisticated uses are identified, designed, and operationally planned and flown. 

If, for example, professional grade sUAS 

meets feasibility criteria of operations, safety, 

regulations, and satisfies economics and 

business principles and enters into the logistics chain via delivering small packages, the 

growth in this sector will likely be phenomenal. This growth trajectory may even be fur-

 

16 Because of this wide range in prices between 

types of sUAS in commercial activities, start-up 

cost for a business may vary somewhere between $2,500 and $25,000. 17 Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/] or LAANC automated the application/approval process for airspace authorizations. Requests submitted via 

ther enhanced by, for example, the Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability 

(LAANC) system17, which began authorization in May, 2018. LAANC is designed to allow considerable flexibility in sUAS operations and facilitate non-modelers’ use of the 

NAS. While most of the near-term growth in 

non-model sUAS will continue to come from 

consumer grade (over 90 percent), we anticipate a significant part will come from professional grade non-model sUAS as well. 

As non-model aircraft become operationally 

more efficient and safe, battery life expands 

and integration continues, new business 

models will begin to develop, thus enhancing 

robust supply-side responses. These responses, in turn, will pull demand forces 

(e.g., consumer responses to receiving commercial packages; routine blood delivery to 

hospitals, search-and-rescue operations, 

etc.) that are somewhat latent and at the experiment stage, at present. Unlike a developed sector such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to put a marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core demand), primarily 

driven by economic and demographic factors, underlying this sector. Nevertheless, an 

attempt has been made to capture the lowrange to the projected demand. Hence, we 

provide the likely or base scenario together 

with the enormous potential embodied in the 

FAA approved UAS Service Suppliers (USS) are 

checked against airspace data in the FAA UAS 

Data Exchange such as temporary flight restrictions, NOTAMS and the UAS Facility Maps 

(UASFM). Approved requests thus provide the 

FAA ATO visibility into where and when planned 

drone operations will take place. 
48

“high” scenario, representing cumulative annual growth rates of 25 percent and 36 percent, respectively. In the event of unforeseen slowdown or obstacles, “low” scenario 

projects a cumulative growth rate of around 

17 percent annually. 

Non-model sUAS are presently used for numerous purposes. The survey of non-model 

sUAS aircraft owners reveals their present 

uses as follows: 

Non-model sUAS are used extensively in 

carrying out research and development 

(R&D), and in training-education missions 

(21 percent), followed by filming events including weddings, entertainment and sports 

(21 percent), industrial/utility and in environmental projects such as aerial inspection (16

percent) followed by real estate (13 percent) 

and in construction activities (8 percent). Agriculture (7 percent) including crop inspection; and press and media (5 percent) come 

next. Increasingly, state and local governments are using sUAS for emergency services including search-and-rescue operations and presently employ around 3 percent

of all non-model sUAS. As the sector grows, 

we anticipate there will be many more uses 

of non-model sUAS as they are increasingly 

evident from the participants’ activities, for 

example, under the Integration Pilot Program 

(IPP). In May, 2018 the FAA awarded 10 

communities, among a pool of 149 applications, [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_integration_pilot_program/awardees/] to participate in the 

IPP. IPP applications and preliminary data 

indicate that awardees overwhelmingly plan 

to undertake numerous commercial and public interest activities. 

One way of identifying early trends of nonmodel sUAS uses is to analyze the waiver 

applications granted to non-model sUAS operators. Both the magnitude and relative 

composition of waiver types may indicate the 

direction of the non-model sUAS sector as a 

whole. A breakdown of the waiver requests 

granted in December 2018 is shown in the 

chart below: 

Beyond what is presently allowed under existing Part 107, expanding non-model applications further would require waivers, to a 

large extent, for night operations, (1 in 5 

waivers) and operating limitations of altitude 

(1.9 percent). Many of these waivers are 

combined, and hence, total waivers granted 

Total non-Model Fleet

(no. of '000 units)

year Low Base High

2018 277 277 277

2019 369 400 426

2020 460 545 638

2021 552 711 932

2022 588 789 1,112

2023 603 835 1,290
49

(over 2100 in December 2018) exceed 100

percent. The Agency issues these waivers 

to facilitate commercial activities by nonmodel sUAS while preparing for the next 

round of regulations. New regulations seek 

to amend the present waiver requirements. 

(See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-00732/operation-ofsmall-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people for current notice of proposed rulemaking 

(NPRM) on operations of small unmanned 

aircraft over people in certain conditions and 

operations of small UAS at night without obtaining a waiver). Analysis of these waiver 

applications allows us to understand the industry trends, one of many metrics essential 

for understanding and projecting both the trajectory, course corrections, and growth 

trends of the sector. 

Almost 50 percent of airspace authorizations 

and waivers were approved for the controlled 

airspaces at the end of December, 2018. 

While over half of them were for class D airspace (i.e., smaller airports with control towers), other classes were also requested and 

regularly flown. 

Survey responses show that while most of 

the respondents routinely fly in Class G airspace (almost 60 percent), there are quite a 

few users, who fly within controlled airspace

facilitated by the airspace waivers. 

Finally, LAANC continues to routinely provide auto-approval. It has provided, so far, 

over 47,000 auto-approvals for airspace access requests, while sending over 7,000 for 

further coordination. LAANC authorizations 

are facilitated by combining UAS facility 

maps (UASFM) 

[https://faa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvi

ewer/index.html?id=9c2e4406710048e19806ebf6a

06754ad] that provide maximum allowed altitudes around airports where the FAA may 

authorize Part 107 UAS operations without 

additional safety analysis. The UASFMs are 

used to inform requests for Part 107 airspace 

authorizations and waivers in controlled airspace.

Remote Pilot Forecast

An important final metric in non-model sUAS 

is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. 

RPs primarily facilitate non-model sUAS 
50

flights for commercial activities. As of December 2018, more than 116,000 RP certifications have been issued18. Over 90 percent

of those who took the exam passed and obtained RP certification. The RP forecasts 

presented below are based on using two 

data sources: (a) trends in total RPs; and (b) 

trends in non-model sUAS registration and 

forecasts of fleet. Given the trends in registration and our forecast of non-model fleet, 

we assume that one pilot is likely to handle 

2.4 units of non-model sUAS. 

Using these assumptions and combined with 

the base scenario of non-model sUAS forecast, we project RPs in the graph below. Last 

year, we projected RPs to be around 

106,000 by the end of 2018; which fell short

by 10,000 by the end of 2018. However, the 

registration of non-model sUAS far exceeded, as noted earlier, what we projected 

last year. 

Given these, we made the adjustment to RPs 

per non-model aircraft, thus increasing it by 

one more unit than last year. Despite this adjustment, RPs are set to experience tremendous growth following the growth trends of 

the non-model sUAS sector. Starting from 

 

18 In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who 

passed the initial knowledge test plus current 

the base of 116,027 RPs in 2018, non-model 

activities may require almost 350,000 RPs in 

5 years, a three-fold increase, providing tremendous opportunities for growth in employment associated with commercial activities of 

UAS. Potential for RPs may enhance even 

more if larger UAS are used in commercial 

activities and urban air mobility becomes a 

reality in the near future. 

Urban Air Mobility

In Sept 2017, NASA launched a market 

study for a segment crossing over some 

functions of UAS discussed above. This segment of autonomous vehicles broadly called 

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is defined as “a 

safe and efficient system for air passenger 

and cargo transportation within an urban 

area, inclusive of small package delivery and 

other urban unmanned aircraft systems 

(UAS) services, which supports a mix of 

onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations” (see 

https://www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-embraces 

urban-air-mobility). Studies sponsored by 

NASA were undertaken by two consulting 

firms and are presently under review from expertise within the government and academia. 

Executive summaries of the two reports suggest (https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc), broadly 

speaking, the following: (a) UAS may play a 

significant role in transforming short-haul urban air transportation, e.g., airport shuttle, air 

taxi, air ambulance, last-mile parcel delivery, 

etc.; (b) substantial financial and business 

opportunities exist, but there are significant 

technological, operational, and regulatory 

challenges including issues involving public 

manned pilots who took online training in lieu of 

the knowledge tests.
51

perceptions and acceptance; and (c) gradual 

integration of sUAS into the overall system 

may facilitate integration of UAM by around 

2030. 

In order to understand and address the challenges identified by the studies, the new 

Grand Challenge (GC) has been initiated, 

under which NASA will host UAM ecosystem-wide challenges in 2020. Under GC, 

participants will be required to execute system level safety and integration within operationally robust and relevant environments. 

The goal of the first GC (GC-1), from a series 

of GCs, will be to “promote public confidence 

in UAM safety and facilitate community-wide 

learning while capturing the public’s imagination” (see https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc for 

more details). 

As the sector grows and new initiatives are 

taken, the Agency is keeping a keen eye on 

understanding the overall trends.

 
52

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, 

at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and 

global economies. Shifting international dynamics and impacts resulting from the U.S.

administration’s economic policies could 

drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest worldwide risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist 

incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be 

greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity. 

Although oil prices remained below $65 per 

barrel for most of 2018, the recent volatility 

reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices. 

The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from 

economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s February 2019 U.S. macro forecast 

and 30-Year Focus released during the 

fourth quarter of 2018) calls for oil prices to 

decrease to $59 per barrel in 2021 and rise 

gradually thereafter. By 2031 oil prices are 

projected to be $85 per barrel and approach 

$100 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2039. Some forecasters are calling 

for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil. 

In October 2018, the World Bank released its 

latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to rise to $74 per barrel in 2019, but then decline to $69 in 2020. 

After 2020 prices rise slowly and reach $70 

per barrel by 2030. However, there are other 

oil price forecasts that are considerably more 

aggressive than the FAA base forecast. The 

latest Energy Information Administration 

(EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in 

January 2019, sees oil prices rising approximately 3.5% per year between 2018 and 

2050. By 2040, the spot price of oil ranges 

between $166 per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) to $174 per barrel (Brent), considerably above the FAA base forecast of $98. 

Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, 

including air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil 

prices turn out to be higher than the FAA 

forecast, we would expect lower spending on 

air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel 

to airlines and reduced industry profitability. 

The baseline forecast incorporates the December 2017 U.S. tax cuts and some additional infrastructure spending in 2019 and 

beyond. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of these programs that ultimately determines the impact on the future growth of the 

U.S. economy. In addition, how the U.S. will 

engage with the rest of the global economy 

over the next several years continues to be 

evolve. Under the right conditions, a period 

of sustained high and more inclusive growth 

along with increased financial stability could 

occur but there is also the possibility of an 

outcome that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that global 

economic growth will slow in 2019-2021 from 

its 2018 rate, as weakness in Europe and a 

slowdown in China constrains global growth. 
53

Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes 

that China and India will be growth engines 

for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance 

on heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its 

economy more competitive. In the United 

States, economic growth appears to be slowing from 2018’s level as the effects of the tax 

cuts on demand begin to wane, and at the 

same time there remains concerns about the 

strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be 

constrained by structural economic problems 

(high debt, slow population growth, weak 

public finances for example) and the outcome of political elections. Furthermore, the 

actions taken to stabilize the global economy 

during the Great Recession continue to hamper economic policy makers. In some of the 

major advanced economies, concerns have 

been expressed by some political leaders 

that central banks have raised interest rates 

too quickly and have hampered the recovery. 

Additionally, governments in these economies need to shore up their finances and recent actions have many analysts concerned 

that policy makers will not take the steps 

needed. There exists a non-trivial possibility

that authorities will either act prematurely or 

be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps to maintain a healthy global 

economy. The current forecasts assume 

strong passenger growth for travel between 

the United States and other world regions. 

Further slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global 

passenger demand.

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be 

rather limited. Based on FY 2018 data, the 

top 6 (American, Delta, United, Southwest) 

plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue accounted for 

more than 85% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. For many low cost carriers, 

the sheer size of merger transactions or the 

amount of risk associated with a merger 

makes further merger activity unlikely. For 

the network carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authorities will respond to any future 

proposed mergers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new 

rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a 

lack of pilots. Although air travel demand 

continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of 

Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional 

operators have not abated. Network carriers 

continue to adjust the size and breadth of 

their networks. In many cases there are not 

opportunities for regional carriers to backfill 

the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well 

along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 

seat) regional jet fleet and brought its total to 

just 119 at the end of 2018, down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. United has 

reduced the number of small regional jets 

flown by its partners from an estimated 380 

in 2012 to 304 by the end of 2018. However, 

it plans to add 9 more small regional jets to 

its fleet in 2019 as part of its latest expansion 

plan. Meanwhile American has trimmed its 

small regional jet fleet by 93 aircraft since the 

beginning of 2015 from 297 to 204 aircraft

and has plans to retire an additional 19 aircraft in 2019, and a further 12 in 2020. At the 

same time the carrier plans to add 31 larger 

regional jets to its fleet in 2019, and 13 more 

in 2020. While these actions may provide 
54

some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, partial recovery of business and 

corporate aviation continues. The future 

pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is based largely upon the prospects for economic growth and corporate 

profits. Uncertainty in these leading indicators poses a risk to the forecast, but the risk 

is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental regulations and taxes do not seem to be as 

much of a concern in the short term, but over 

the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward 

pressure on the forecast. On the other hand, 

the close relationships between corporate 

profits and purchase of business jets have 

been weakened since 2009. Increases of 

the past few years in real corporate profits 

have not translated into demand for new 

business aircraft yet, possibly because of

perceived economic and political uncertainties. With the U.S. administration’s emphasis 

on policies designed to stimulate economic 

growth and limit regulation, and the favorable 

terms of the new tax law, companies are feeling more optimistic about their future prospects that can translate into additional business jet sales. The impact of fuel price 

movements on business aircraft demand is 

also uncertain. Overall, the positive effect of 

declining fuel prices on corporate profits

transforms to increased demand for business aircraft. However, business aircraft demand from energy related industries will be 

negatively impacted if fuel prices remain low 

(by historic standards) for an extended period in the future. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient 

product offerings like supersonic business 

jets serve to broaden the potential of the industry and can make corporate jet travel look 

increasingly appealing. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of larger regional 

jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into 

the national airspace system will make the 

FAA’s job more challenging. This change in 

the mix of aircraft will most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the 

growth in operations over the forecast period. 

While overall activity at FAA and contract 

towers increased 2.9 percent in 2018, activity 

at large and medium hub airports (60 in total)

increased 2.3 percent in 2018 and delays remained at historically high levels at many 

U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at 

these airports to grow substantially faster 

than the overall national trend. As demand 

continues to grow and workload increases, 

congestion and delays could become critical 

limits to growth over the forecast period. 

FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume 

that there will be sufficient infrastructure to 

handle the projected levels of activity. 

Should the infrastructure be inadequate and 

result in even more congestion and delays, it 

is likely that the forecasts of both demand 

and operations would not be achieved. 

Increasing concerns about aviation environmental impacts could potentially limit or delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow to 

meet national economic and mobility needs. 
55

Airspace modernization and airport expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, and water quality. Community concerns about aviation noise have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. Without effective 

measures to mitigate and abate aviation 

noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to achieve 

aviation growth may be delayed. The environmental noise and emissions issues associated with overflight operations also present 

global challenges. In addition to providing 

economic benefits, technologies to improve 

aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide benefits in terms of reduced emissions; many technologies that improve fuel efficiency also provide reduced 

noise. The implementation of the Carbon 

Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach 

that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations 

around the world is used. Continued advancements in technologies that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and reduced emissions are also required to ensure that access 

restrictions or operating limitations are not 

imposed on the in-service fleet, which in turn 

may depress growth. 
56

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-

year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were 

used. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

February 2019 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were combined with the optimistic and 

pessimistic forecasts from their Fall 2018 30-

year U.S. Macro forecast. Inputs from these 

alternative scenarios were used to create a 

“high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield 

forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios 

use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS

Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high 

and low case. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth remains close 

to trend over the next few years as both consumer and business spending provide support. Recent tax cuts result in some nearterm stimulus but in the medium term, headwinds result from slower federal government 

spending. Oil prices remain moderate by historic standards and there are no external 

shocks. 

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees stronger overall growth driven

mainly by an increase in productivity in a low 

inflation environment. This results in 

stronger real wage growth and an improved 

employment outlook, leading to increased 

consumer spending. Confidence is high and 

the stock market sees strong gains while the 

unemployment rate remains slightly lower 

than in the baseline scenario. Stronger imports accompany the increased domestic demand but exports rise faster with improving 

foreign economic conditions. 

In this scenario, real personal consumption 

expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.5 percentage points faster per year
57

than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal 

year basis than the baseline.19 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this 

forecast, a broad loss in confidence and 

growing aversion to risk leads to drops in a 

wide range of investment and consumer 

spending categories to end the expansion in 

the U.S. The economy suffers a three-quarter recession in 2020 and GDP growth averages 0.2 percentage points lower than in the 

baseline over the first ten years of the forecast. 

Rising housing prices have left the real-estate market vulnerable, and a slowdown 

turns into a decline, as real-estate prices correct and confidence plunges. Then, a growing sense of unease marked by declines in 

 

19 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts 

of enplanements.

consumer confidence and an inverted yield 

curve stresses financial markets, resulting in 

sharp declines in asset values and broadbased declines in business fixed investment. 

Negative wealth effects and employment declines lead households to sharply curtail their 

spending early in 2020. By the end of 2020, 

housing and consumer spending start to turn 

back up, but recover only tepidly, while business fixed investment turns up more strongly 

and leads the recovery. Oil prices rise faster 

than the baseline throughout the forecast.

Real PCE per capita in this scenario grows 

0.4 percentage points slower per year than in 

the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.6 points higher on an annual basis 

than in the baseline.
58

 (0.5)

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

 390

2018 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
59

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow 

growth of energy prices and import prices 

counteracts faster growth of other consumer 

goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

rise similarly to the baseline. In the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages and import 

prices all rise more rapidly compared to the 

baseline. 

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

 6.0

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Index Value (2018 = 100)

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
61

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2019-2039 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 1.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a quicker pace, averaging 2.5 percent per 

year (up 2.4 percent domestically and 3.4

percent internationally). This scenario is 

marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices which make 

the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the 

forecast period in 2039, system passengers 

in the optimistic case are 15.4 percent above 

the baseline, totaling 1.5 billion, 201 million 

greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened consumer confidence 

combined with a contraction in real estate 

and financial asset markets, leading to 

higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and consumer spending. In this scenario, enplanements grow an average of 1.3 

percent per year (domestic up 1.1 percent 

and international up 2.6 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2039 

are 9.9 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.2 billion, or 130 million fewer than in 

the baseline.

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
62

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2019-2039), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 1.9 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 3.0 

percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 2.8 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and

3.4 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 1.7

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.4 percent a year while international traffic grows 2.6 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles 

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 2.1 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 1.8 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 3.0 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a 

faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.8 percent annually system-wide (2.5 

and 3.4 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
63

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment. 

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.7 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 1.3 percent annually and international up 2.6 percent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three 

forecast scenarios. System load factor rises 

from 83.9 percent in 2019 to 85.0 (optimistic), 

84.8 (pessimistic), and 84.9 (baseline) percent in 2039, respectively. 

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 84.9 percent to 86.6 

percent in all three scenarios, optimistic, pessimistic and baseline. 

The international load factor is forecast to 

hold steady near 81.5 throughout the period

in the pessimistic scenario and rise slightly to 

81.6 percent in the baseline and optimistic

scenarios. This reflects in part the relative 

growth in demand and capacity in the three 

(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
64

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.6 percent annually, going 

from 13.69 cents in 2019 to 18.94 cents in 

2039. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.67 cents in 2019 

to 18.96 cents in 2039. International yield 

rises from 13.73 cents in 2019 to 18.89 cents 

in 2039. 

System yield rises in the optimistic case at 

the same rate as in the baseline, up 1.4 percent annually to 18.20 cents by 2039. Domestic yield increases to 18.08 cents while 

international yield increases to 18.48 cents. 

The modest growth in yield in both cases is 

due to advancements in technology, gains in 

productivity, and relatively favorable fuel 

prices.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 2.4 percent annually, reaching 

21.92 cents by 2039 (22.05 cents domestically and 21.66 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the 

baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in 

order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital.
65

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2018E 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39

Economic AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 39,042 39,827 40,757 43,365 45,921 48,154 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Expenditure per Capita Baseline 39,042 39,840 42,079 44,686 48,137 51,924 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%

(2012 $) Optimistic 39,042 40,016 44,256 49,215 53,292 57,787 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 64.7 77.4 85.4 101.8 125.1 152.9 19.5% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 3.5%

Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 63.7 60.6 66.1 80.4 89.9 98.4 -4.8% 1.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%

Optimistic 63.7 60.6 65.1 67.0 70.2 74.2 -4.8% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.50 2.54 2.83 3.19 3.80 4.57 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.0%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.50 2.55 2.85 3.19 3.55 3.95 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%

Optimistic 2.50 2.55 2.84 3.19 3.52 3.85 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 4.0 3.8 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.9 -3.5% 7.3% 2.6% 1.2% 1.2%

(%) Baseline 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 -7.5% 3.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4%

Optimistic 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 -8.2% 2.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0%

Source: IHS Markit
66

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2018E 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,194.7 1,239.8 1,296.7 1,440.2 1,586.4 1,723.7 3.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7%

(BIL) Baseline 1,194.7 1,244.0 1,353.9 1,503.0 1,689.8 1,900.5 4.1% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

Optimistic 1,194.7 1,249.9 1,436.3 1,685.0 1,909.0 2,163.9 4.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 1,000.8 1,040.6 1,094.4 1,219.3 1,345.2 1,462.5 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

(BIL) Baseline 1,000.8 1,044.3 1,143.4 1,272.8 1,433.1 1,613.2 4.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%

Optimistic 1,000.8 1,049.2 1,213.6 1,428.2 1,620.5 1,838.5 4.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8%

Enplanements Pessimistic 880.5 913.3 929.3 1,017.2 1,102.8 1,175.1 3.7% 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3%

(MIL) Baseline 880.5 917.2 979.5 1,065.5 1,178.2 1,304.9 4.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8%

Optimistic 880.5 922.4 1,047.9 1,211.8 1,349.7 1,505.5 4.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,649.7 7,893.6 8,005.3 8,715.8 9,426.9 10,044.9 3.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%

(MIL) Baseline 7,649.7 7,923.9 8,396.9 9,113.0 10,058.3 11,115.8 3.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7%

Optimistic 7,649.7 7,965.1 8,944.9 10,288.3 11,438.8 12,735.4 4.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,161.0 9,425.4 9,172.1 9,716.1 10,222.1 10,567.6 2.9% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%

(000s) Baseline 9,161.0 9,417.6 9,636.9 10,136.1 10,866.3 11,677.8 2.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%

Optimistic 9,161.0 9,473.5 10,329.7 11,525.1 12,428.3 13,444.4 3.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.63 13.68 14.78 16.21 18.76 21.92 0.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4%

(cents) Baseline 13.63 13.69 14.87 16.24 17.57 18.94 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Optimistic 13.63 13.69 14.81 16.06 17.16 18.20 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
67

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2018E 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39

Domestic Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 850.4 884.4 894.0 980.3 1,065.4 1,135.2 4.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%

(BIL) Baseline 850.4 888.6 948.5 1,028.9 1,138.7 1,263.5 4.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8%

Optimistic 850.4 894.1 1,020.1 1,181.7 1,317.8 1,473.2 5.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 720.2 751.1 766.3 844.4 920.4 982.6 4.3% 0.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%

(BIL) Baseline 720.2 754.6 813.0 886.3 983.8 1,093.7 4.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9%

Optimistic 720.2 759.3 874.3 1,018.0 1,138.5 1,275.2 5.4% 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 780.8 811.8 817.1 888.5 955.7 1,006.6 4.0% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1%

(MIL) Baseline 780.8 815.6 866.9 932.5 1,021.4 1,120.5 4.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%

Optimistic 780.8 820.7 932.3 1,071.1 1182.1 1,306.4 5.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 6,078.8 6,279.0 6,203.3 6,673.1 7,129.2 7,466.9 3.3% -0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9%

(MIL) Baseline 6,078.8 6,308.8 6,583.0 7,005.6 7,621.9 8,314.8 3.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%

Optimistic 6,078.8 6,348.6 7,082.5 8,051.2 8,826.4 9,701.2 4.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,470.1 8,724.7 8,414.9 8,857.2 9,251.0 9,468.0 3.0% -0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%

(000s) Baseline 8,470.1 8,716.5 8,875.3 9,247.8 9,829.4 10,469.7 2.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9%

Optimistic 8,470.1 8,771.8 9,546.7 10,581.2 11,316.8 12,138.0 3.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.66 13.66 14.76 16.25 18.85 22.05 0.0% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4%

(cents) Baseline 13.66 13.67 14.85 16.24 17.58 18.96 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Optimistic 13.66 13.67 14.78 15.99 17.05 18.08 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%
68

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2018-2039

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2018E 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2018-19 2019-24 2019-29 2019-34 2019-39

International Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 344.3 355.4 402.6 459.9 521.0 588.5 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%(BIL) Baseline 344.3 355.4 405.4 474.1 551.1 637.0 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%

Optimistic 344.3 355.7 416.3 503.3 591.2 690.7 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 280.6 289.6 328.1 374.9 424.7 479.9 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%(BIL) Baseline 280.6 289.7 330.4 386.4 449.3 519.5 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%

Optimistic 280.6 289.9 339.2 410.2 482.0 563.3 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%

Enplanements Pessimistic 99.6 101.6 112.2 128.7 147.1 168.5 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%(MIL) Baseline 99.6 101.6 112.6 132.9 156.7 184.4 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

Optimistic 99.6 101.7 115.5 140.8 167.6 199.0 2.1% 2.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,570.9 1,614.7 1,802.0 2,042.7 2,297.8 2,577.9 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%(MIL) Baseline 1,570.9 1,615.2 1,813.8 2,107.4 2,436.4 2,801.0 2.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%

Optimistic 1,570.9 1,616.5 1,862.5 2,237.1 2,612.4 3,034.2 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 690.9 700.7 757.1 858.9 971.1 1,099.6 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%(000s) Baseline 690.9 701.1 761.6 888.3 1,036.9 1,208.1 1.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8%

Optimistic 690.9 701.7 783.0 944.0 1,111.5 1,306.4 1.6% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.55 13.72 14.83 16.11 18.57 21.66 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3%(cents) Baseline 13.55 13.73 14.94 16.22 17.55 18.89 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Optimistic 13.55 13.73 14.88 16.24 17.41 18.48 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
69

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of 

uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment 

and reliance on industry knowledge and the 

forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. 

The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no 

exception. Given the volatile nature of the 

U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that 

each year’s forecast would contain a certain 

degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA 

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be 

able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the 

variance from historical results for a primary 

forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2018 forecast period. Although many of the forecasts 

prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline industry was 

going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast 

methodology remained consistent during this 

time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might 

lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current 

forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute 

percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP. 

Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of 

years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” 

column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.0 percent for ASM 

forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For 

the period under examination, preparation of 

the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2018 

occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2017. 20 

 

20 It should be noted that the first forecasted year 

for each respective fiscal year is that very same 

year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 

2012. 
70

 

Presenting forecast variances from actual 

data in such a manner simplifies a review of 

longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to increase as the forecast 

year is moves away from the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of 

changes in the relative variances by time 

horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, 

are similar to the variances of the key traffic 

measures, Passenger Enplanements and 

RPMs. This suggests that a substantial 

amount of the forecast variance for the traffic 

variables is attributable to the forecast error 

in the exogenous variables. Second, all the 

metrics examined have increasing variances 

as the forecast time horizon lengthens. 

Third, the variance in the Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers relative to 

ASM variance is stable for the 2 to 5 year out 

horizon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year 

forecast horizon carriers are able to accommodate changes in capacity by means other 

than adjusting operations. Many carriers 

have been systematically reducing the number of smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft. 

This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. 

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2018)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 1.0% 2.8% 5.5% 7.9% 9.5%

ASMs 0.8% 2.1% 5.0% 8.7% 12.3%

RPMs 0.9% 1.7% 4.2% 7.4% 10.2%

Passenger Enplanements 0.7% 1.6% 4.3% 7.6% 10.0%

Mainline Domestic Yield 2.6% 5.3% 7.8% 8.7% 8.7%

Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers 0.8% 2.9% 6.6% 10.9% 16.2%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS
71

Appendix C: Forecast Tables
72

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2018 FISCAL YEAR 2019 FISCAL YEAR 2020

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2012 $) 38,835 38,828 39,122 39,380 39,663 39,750 39,886 40,060 40,232 40,403 40,562 40,725

Year over year change 3.2% -0.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars per barrel) 56.65 61.88 67.24 69.04 61.25 54.79 62.52 63.95 62.78 60.51 59.71 58.65

Year over year change 87.3% 42.4% 39.4% 11.1% -38.1% -36.0% 69.6% 9.4% -7.1% -13.7% -5.2% -6.9%

Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 247.3 249.4 250.5 251.7 252.8 253.4 255.3 257.0 258.3 259.5 260.8 262.0

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 3.3% 3.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 0.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%

Source: IHS Markit
73

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2012 $) (2012 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2010 15,500 34,164 2.17 74.61

2015 17,301 36,862 2.37 56.69

2016 17,577 37,618 2.39 39.12

2017 17,941 38,303 2.44 48.16

2018E 18,431 39,042 2.50 63.70

Forecast2019 18,917 39,840 2.55 60.63

2024 20,522 42,079 2.85 66.11

2029 22,508 44,686 3.19 80.40

2034 24,689 48,137 3.55 89.85

2039 27,065 51,924 3.95 98.39

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% -2.0%2018-19 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% -4.8%2019-29 1.8% 1.2% 2.3% 2.9%2019-39 1.8% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5%

Source: IHS Markit
74

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA / 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical

2010 1,396 21,261 4,610 18,846 64,168

2015 1,553 23,165 5,172 24,247 74,225

2016 1,570 23,690 5,163 25,404 76,207

2017 1,617 24,302 5,261 26,710 78,721

2018E 1,650 24,812 5,333 28,028 81,248

Forecast

2019 1,681 25,185 5,424 29,356 83,578

2024 1,853 27,668 6,094 36,785 96,245

2029 2,035 30,564 7,063 45,558 111,446

2034 2,226 33,664 8,191 54,367 127,315

2039 2,438 36,970 9,514 63,874 144,415

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 5.1% 3.0%

2018-19 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 4.7% 2.9%2019-29 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 4.5% 2.9%

2019-39 1.9% 1.9% 2.8% 4.0% 2.8%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
75

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(NAFTA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 18,753 11,201 2,630 4,179 7,4682015 20,942 11,678 2,915 4,390 10,916

2016 21,276 11,902 2,968 4,417 11,650

2017 21,761 12,202 3,022 4,502 12,4362018E 22,363 12,428 3,063 4,535 13,257

Forecast2019 22,882 12,576 3,091 4,572 14,0932024 24,849 13,398 3,320 4,765 18,7252029 27,354 14,320 3,591 5,037 24,1752034 30,180 15,263 3,878 5,267 29,3132039 33,201 16,219 4,187 5,473 34,645

Avg Annual Growth

2010-18 2.2% 1.3% 1.9% 1.0% 7.4%

2018-19 2.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 6.3%

2019-29 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 5.5%

2019-39 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 4.6%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
76

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 635 77 712 555 231 786

2015 696 90 787 629 261 890

2016 726 93 820 663 265 928

2017 744 97 841 684 271 955

2018E 781 100 880 720 281 1,001

Forecast2019 816 102 917 755 290 1,044

2024 867 113 980 813 330 1,143

2029 933 133 1,065 886 386 1,273

2034 1,021 157 1,178 984 449 1,433

2039 1,120 184 1,305 1,094 520 1,613

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 2.5% 3.1%

2018-19 4.5% 2.0% 4.2% 4.8% 3.2% 4.3%

2019-29 1.3% 2.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.9% 2.0%

2019-39 1.6% 3.0% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
77

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL) % LOAD FACTOR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL) % LOAD FACTOR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL) % LOAD FACTOR

Historical

2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.8

2015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 890 83.4

2016 783 663 84.7 329 265 80.6 1,112 928 83.5

2017 809 684 84.5 335 271 81.0 1,144 955 83.5

2018E 850 720 84.7 344 281 81.5 1,195 1,001 83.8

Forecast2019 889 755 84.9 355 290 81.5 1,244 1,044 83.9

2024 948 813 85.7 405 330 81.5 1,354 1,143 84.4

2029 1,029 886 86.1 474 386 81.5 1,503 1,273 84.7

2034 1,139 984 86.4 551 449 81.5 1,690 1,433 84.8

2039 1,264 1,094 86.6 637 520 81.6 1,901 1,613 84.9

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1%

2018-19 4.5% 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 4.3%

2019-29 1.5% 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 1.9% 2.0%

2019-39 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
78

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 231

2015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 261

2016 24 55 14 93 105 87 73 265

2017 25 58 14 97 106 90 75 271

2018E 26 60 13 100 112 93 75 281

Forecast2019 27 61 13 102 117 95 77 290

2024 31 67 15 113 137 106 87 330

2029 35 81 17 133 156 132 98 386

2034 39 99 19 157 176 163 111 449

2039 43 120 21 184 196 199 124 519

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 0.8% 5.3% 0.4% 3.2% 0.4% 5.0% 3.0% 2.5%

2018-19 4.2% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 4.7% 1.7% 2.9% 3.2%

2019-29 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.4% 2.9%

2019-39 2.3% 3.5% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 3.8% 2.4% 3.0%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
79

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 158

2015 70 75 36 27 2082016 75 79 39 28 220

2017 79 82 41 29 2322018E 85 86 43 31 244

Forecast

2019 89 89 44 32 254

2024 102 100 54 38 2942029 120 121 65 45 3512034 140 147 77 52 4162039 161 178 90 62 491

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 5.4% 6.2% 5.8% 4.5% 5.6%2018-19 4.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.9%2019-29 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.3%2019-39 3.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.4%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  data also received from Transport Canada.
80

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical

2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.2

2015 131.5 214.8 149.0 902.7 2,892.6 1,131.02016 134.8 214.8 151.5 913.2 2,833.8 1,132.22017 137.8 217.2 154.3 918.9 2,798.6 1,135.6

2018E 139.9 219.2 156.2 922.3 2,816.6 1,136.7

Forecast2019 140.8 220.1 157.0 925.2 2,850.7 1,138.5

2024 144.1 223.5 161.2 937.8 2,933.7 1,167.3

2029 146.9 224.9 164.9 950.5 2,907.1 1,194.6

2034 149.4 226.2 168.0 963.2 2,866.6 1,216.4

2039 152.0 227.4 171.0 976.1 2,816.8 1,236.3

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
81

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 710

2015 543 87 630 556 259 815

2016 575 90 665 590 262 852

2017 595 93 689 612 269 881

2018E 627 96 723 645 278 924

Forecast2019 656 98 754 676 287 964

2024 697 109 806 728 328 1,056

2029 750 129 879 793 384 1,177

2034 822 152 974 880 446 1,326

2039 901 180 1,081 978 516 1,494

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 2.4% 3.3%

2018-19 4.6% 1.9% 4.2% 4.8% 3.2% 4.3%

2019-29 1.4% 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2.9% 2.0%

2019-39 1.6% 3.1% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 2.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
82

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.5

2015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.7

2016 692 590 85.3 325 262 80.7 1,017 852 83.8

2017 718 612 85.2 331 269 81.1 1,049 881 83.9

2018E 756 645 85.3 341 278 81.5 1,098 924 84.1

Forecast2019 791 676 85.5 352 287 81.5 1,143 964 84.3

2024 843 728 86.3 402 328 81.5 1,245 1,056 84.8

2029 914 793 86.8 470 384 81.5 1,385 1,177 85.0

2034 1,011 880 87.1 547 446 81.6 1,558 1,326 85.1

2039 1,121 978 87.2 632 516 81.6 1,753 1,494 85.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 3.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.4% -0.1% 3.1% 3.3%

2018-19 4.5% 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 4.1% 4.3%

2019-29 1.5% 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 1.9% 2.0%

2019-39 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
83

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.6

2015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.2

2016 24.4 51.5 14.0 89.9

2017 24.8 54.7 13.9 93.5

2018E 26.0 56.9 13.3 96.2

Forecast2019 27.1 57.5 13.4 98.1

2024 31.1 62.9 14.9 108.9

2029 34.8 77.4 16.7 128.92034 38.8 94.8 18.7 152.4

2039 43.2 115.5 20.9 179.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 0.8% 5.5% 0.4% 3.2%

2018-19 4.2% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9%

2019-29 2.5% 3.0% 2.2% 2.8%

2019-39 2.3% 3.5% 2.2% 3.1%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
84

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.2

2015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.82016 134 105 78.0 104 85 81.4 87 73 83.9 325 262 80.72017 134 106 79.5 107 88 82.3 91 75 82.2 331 269 81.1

2018E 138 112 81.0 111 91 82.1 92 75 81.7 341 278 81.5

Forecast2019 145 117 81.0 113 93 82.1 95 77 81.7 352 287 81.5

2024 170 137 81.0 126 104 82.1 106 87 81.7 402 328 81.5

2029 193 156 81.0 157 129 82.1 121 98 81.7 470 384 81.5

2034 217 176 81.0 194 160 82.1 136 111 81.7 547 446 81.62039 242 196 81.0 238 196 82.1 152 124 81.7 632 516 81.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 0.7% 0.4% 4.5% 5.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4%2018-19 4.7% 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%2019-29 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9%

2019-39 2.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
85

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.22015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.82016 159.9 241.7 174.1 266.6 219.8 175.12017 162.3 243.4 176.4 267.5 221.8 177.32018E 164.2 247.5 178.2 265.2 223.3 178.9

Forecast2019 164.8 248.0 178.7 266.0 224.3 179.52024 167.8 250.5 181.2 269.7 227.5 183.32029 170.3 253.0 183.7 273.5 228.6 186.42034 172.4 255.5 186.2 277.2 229.6 188.92039 174.5 258.0 188.7 281.0 230.7 191.3

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
86

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,2962015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,292

2016 1,027 4,291 1,650 5,176 2,917 1,283

2017 1,028 4,278 1,602 5,373 2,875 1,279

2018E 1,029 4,299 1,603 5,638 2,892 1,277

Forecast2019 1,032 4,320 1,611 5,751 2,928 1,2792024 1,045 4,412 1,648 5,842 3,010 1,310

2029 1,058 4,483 1,669 5,886 2,975 1,3392034 1,071 4,523 1,685 5,916 2,928 1,3622039 1,085 4,546 1,693 5,931 2,872 1,382

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
87

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 14.49 12.84 14.74 12.69 14.58

2015 14.79 15.60 14.16 14.94 14.59 15.39

2016 13.96 14.59 12.88 13.46 13.62 14.24

2017 13.91 14.25 12.89 13.20 13.60 13.93

2018E 13.91 13.91 13.60 13.60 13.82 13.82

Forecast

2019 13.93 13.66 13.78 13.52 13.89 13.62

2024 15.13 13.24 14.99 13.12 15.09 13.20

2029 16.55 12.96 16.28 12.76 16.46 12.90

2034 17.92 12.60 17.62 12.39 17.82 12.53

2039 19.33 12.22 18.95 11.98 19.20 12.14

Avg Annual Growth

2010-18 1.2% -0.5% 0.7% -1.0% 1.1% -0.7%

2018-19 0.1% -1.8% 1.3% -0.6% 0.5% -1.4%

2019-29 1.7% -0.5% 1.7% -0.6% 1.7% -0.5%2019-39 1.7% -0.6% 1.6% -0.6% 1.6% -0.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
88

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2018 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 14.63 13.33 15.31 12.50 14.36 12.84 14.742015 14.64 15.44 14.38 15.17 13.20 13.92 14.16 14.94

2016 13.83 14.45 12.72 13.29 11.69 12.22 12.88 13.46

2017 13.58 13.90 13.38 13.70 11.36 11.63 12.89 13.20

2018E 14.38 14.38 14.18 14.18 11.73 11.73 13.60 13.60

Forecast2019 14.59 14.31 14.34 14.06 11.89 11.66 13.78 13.522024 15.95 13.96 15.43 13.50 12.96 11.34 14.99 13.12

2029 17.39 13.61 16.58 12.98 14.14 11.06 16.28 12.752034 18.89 13.28 17.76 12.48 15.39 10.81 17.62 12.38

2039 20.45 12.95 18.89 11.96 16.69 10.57 18.95 12.00

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 1.5% -0.2% 0.8% -1.0% -0.8% -2.5% 0.7% -1.0%2018-19 1.5% -0.5% 1.1% -0.8% 1.4% -0.6% 1.3% -0.6%

2019-29 1.8% -0.5% 1.5% -0.8% 1.7% -0.5% 1.7% -0.6%

2019-39 1.7% -0.5% 1.4% -0.8% 1.7% -0.5% 1.6% -0.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
89

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 219.16 251.78 220.12 252.85 219.49 252.122015 207.29 218.65 211.77 223.38 208.96 220.422016 146.17 152.77 147.01 153.65 146.47 153.092017 162.31 166.22 160.79 164.66 161.76 165.652018E 206.63 206.63 208.37 208.37 207.24 207.24

Forecast2019 214.75 210.61 216.56 212.39 215.38 211.242024 234.57 205.28 236.54 207.01 235.26 205.892029 282.87 221.59 285.25 223.46 283.70 222.242034 319.33 224.55 322.02 226.44 320.27 225.212039 349.16 220.76 352.10 222.62 350.19 221.41

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -0.7% -2.4% -0.7% -2.4% -0.7% -2.4%2018-19 3.9% 1.9% 3.9% 1.9% 3.9% 1.9%2019-29 2.8% 0.5% 2.8% 0.5% 2.8% 0.5%2019-39 2.5% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
90

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions) 

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS 

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,243 16,733 27,976 1,580 6,332 7,912 12,823 23,065 35,8882015 11,636 16,008 27,643 1,455 6,670 8,126 13,091 22,678 35,7692016 11,998 16,236 28,234 1,373 6,136 7,509 13,372 22,372 35,744

2017 13,062 17,587 30,649 1,579 6,958 8,537 14,641 24,545 39,186

2018E 14,182 19,465 33,647 1,580 7,532 9,112 15,761 26,997 42,759

Forecast2019 14,829 20,845 35,674 1,638 7,947 9,585 16,467 28,792 45,259

2024 15,608 26,239 41,847 1,652 9,268 10,920 17,260 35,507 52,766

2029 17,201 33,041 50,243 1,742 10,780 12,523 18,944 43,821 62,765

2034 18,968 40,864 59,832 1,835 12,276 14,111 20,803 53,139 73,942

2039 20,835 49,917 70,752 1,960 13,753 15,713 22,795 63,670 86,465

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.9% 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 2.2% 1.8% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2%

2018-19 4.6% 7.1% 6.0% 3.7% 5.5% 5.2% 4.5% 6.6% 5.8%

2019-29 1.5% 4.7% 3.5% 0.6% 3.1% 2.7% 1.4% 4.3% 3.3%

2019-39 1.7% 4.5% 3.5% 0.9% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 4.0% 3.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
91

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical2010 6,865 1,991 8,348 5,860 23,0652015 6,669 1,639 9,018 5,352 22,6782016 6,639 1,565 8,852 5,316 22,3722017 7,061 1,689 9,939 5,857 24,5452018E 7,554 1,846 10,422 7,176 26,997

Forecast2019 7,894 1,905 11,169 7,825 28,7922024 9,350 1,867 13,621 10,670 35,5072029 10,890 1,977 17,193 13,761 43,821

2034 12,591 2,119 21,264 17,164 53,139

2039 14,463 2,245 25,823 21,139 63,670

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 1.2% -0.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.0%2018-19 4.5% 3.2% 7.2% 9.0% 6.6%

2019-29 3.3% 0.4% 4.4% 5.8% 4.3%

2019-39 3.1% 0.8% 4.3% 5.1% 4.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
92

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

LARGE 

JETS

REGIONAL 

JETS

TOTAL 

JETS

Historical2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,9432016 3,457 2 0 3,459 490 0 27 517 3,976 97 4,0732017 3,539 1 0 3,540 517 0 0 517 4,057 98 4,1552018E 3,616 1 0 3,617 526 0 0 526 4,143 98 4,241

Forecast2019 3,597 1 0 3,598 487 0 0 487 4,085 60 4,145

2024 3,656 0 0 3,656 510 0 0 510 4,166 60 4,2262029 3,729 0 0 3,729 618 0 0 618 4,347 60 4,407

2034 4,013 0 0 4,013 709 0 0 709 4,722 20 4,742

2039 4,387 0 0 4,387 810 0 0 810 5,197 0 5,197

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 1.9% -22.9% N/A 1.8% 1.4% N/A -100.0% 0.1% 1.6% 4.1% 1.6%

2018-19 -0.5% 0.0% N/A -0.5% -7.4% N/A N/A -7.4% -1.4% -38.8% -2.3%

2019-29 0.4% N/A N/A 0.4% 2.4% N/A N/A 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%

2019-39 1.0% N/A N/A 1.0% 2.6% N/A N/A 2.6% 1.2% -99.9% 1.1%
93

 

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 789

2016 235 19 2 256 328 149 77 554 810

2017 243 16 2 261 360 149 85 594 855

2018E 246 15 2 263 365 148 82 595 858

Forecast2019 233 15 2 250 427 108 104 639 889

2024 232 10 2 244 509 106 113 728 972

2029 291 1 0 292 629 106 112 847 1,139

2034 365 0 0 365 785 103 110 998 1,363

2039 412 0 0 412 1,066 24 85 1,175 1,587

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 6.1% -21.5% N/A -1.1% 4.1% -3.7% -2.1% 0.7% 0.1%

2018-19 -5.3% 0.0% N/A -4.9% 17.0% -27.0% 26.8% 7.4% 3.6%

2019-29 2.2% N/A N/A 1.6% 3.9% -0.2% 0.7% 2.9% 2.5%

2019-39 2.9% N/A N/A 2.5% 4.7% -7.2% -1.0% 3.1% 2.9%
94

 

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

AIR 

CARRIER

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUEL 

CONSUMED

Historical2010 12,036 6,315 18,351 1,435 19,786 2 221 223 20,0092015 12,834 6,541 19,374 1,383 20,757 2 196 198 20,955

2016 13,441 6,467 19,908 1,437 21,345 2 206 208 21,553

2017 13,842 6,667 20,509 1,541 22,050 2 206 208 22,2582018E 14,662 7,081 21,743 1,613 23,356 2 208 210 23,566

Forecast2019 15,169 7,238 22,407 1,675 24,081 2 207 209 24,290

2024 15,406 7,855 23,261 1,919 25,181 2 198 200 25,381

2029 15,901 8,739 24,640 2,089 26,729 2 191 193 26,9222034 16,744 9,665 26,409 2,221 28,630 2 185 187 28,8172039 17,678 10,630 28,308 2,335 30,643 2 184 186 30,829

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.5% 1.4% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 2.1%

2018-19 3.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.1% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% 3.1%2019-29 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 1.0%

2019-39 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 1.2%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
95

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2018 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 56.1 53.2 56.0 464 503 465 15.74 18.08

2015 59.9 62.6 60.0 475 695 480 10.93 11.53

2016 61.5 68.9 61.8 481 723 487 11.31 11.82

2017 63.0 70.8 63.2 482 718 487 11.27 11.54

2018E 63.8 70.8 64.0 487 680 491 11.32 11.32

Forecast2019 64.7 71.1 64.9 489 683 493 11.33 11.122024 67.5 72.6 67.7 499 697 503 12.30 10.77

2029 70.1 74.1 70.2 509 711 513 13.45 10.542034 72.7 75.6 72.8 519 725 524 14.56 10.24

2039 75.4 77.1 75.5 530 740 534 15.70 9.93

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 1.6% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3.8% 0.7% -4.0% -5.7%

2018-19 1.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% -1.8%

2019-29 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% -0.5%

2019-39 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% -0.6%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.
96

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 162 3 164 75,030 1,347 76,377

2015 153 3 156 72,754 2,116 74,870

2016 152 4 155 72,964 2,564 75,527

2017 149 3 152 71,715 2,468 74,183

2018E 154 3 157 74,886 2,295 77,181

Forecast2019 160 4 164 78,242 2,398 80,640

2024 170 4 174 84,776 2,598 87,374

2029 183 4 187 92,926 2,848 95,773

2034 200 4 204 103,786 3,181 106,967

2039 219 5 224 116,106 3,558 119,664

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -0.6% 2.9% -0.6% 0.0% 6.9% 0.1%2018-19 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%2019-29 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%2019-39 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
97

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 98,461 75,030 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,318 76,377 76.12015 90,681 72,754 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 93,500 74,870 80.12016 91,158 72,964 80.0 3,519 2,564 72.8 94,677 75,527 79.82017 90,938 71,715 78.9 3,380 2,468 73.0 94,317 74,183 78.72018E 93,924 74,886 79.7 3,023 2,295 75.9 96,947 77,181 79.6

Forecast2019 97,861 78,242 80.0 3,149 2,398 76.1 101,011 80,640 79.82024 105,098 84,776 80.7 3,382 2,598 76.8 108,480 87,374 80.52029 114,699 92,926 81.0 3,691 2,848 77.2 118,390 95,773 80.92034 127,786 103,786 81.2 4,112 3,181 77.3 131,899 106,967 81.12039 142,723 116,106 81.4 4,593 3,558 77.5 147,315 119,664 81.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -0.6% 0.0% 6.3% 6.9% 0.6% -0.4% 0.1%2018-19 4.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 0.3% 4.2% 4.5%2019-29 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 1.7%2019-39 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 2.0%Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
98

 

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

AS OF JANUARY 1

LESS THAN 

9 SEATS

10 TO 19 

SEATS

20 TO 30 

SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,6132015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,1442016 390 55 13 59 0 59 40 1,637 1,677 557 1,637 2,194

2017 367 65 19 26 0 26 65 1,644 1,709 542 1,644 2,1862018E 351 63 9 25 0 25 55 1,795 1,850 503 1,795 2,298

Forecast2019 286 58 8 29 0 29 61 1,745 1,806 442 1,745 2,187

2024 225 45 6 0 0 0 81 1,801 1,882 357 1,801 2,1582029 160 33 5 0 0 0 86 1,682 1,768 284 1,682 1,966

2034 95 19 3 0 0 0 95 1,727 1,822 212 1,727 1,939

2039 32 6 1 0 0 0 106 1,877 1,983 145 1,877 2,022

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -2.8% -4.6% -24.1% -19.7% N/A -21.4% -7.1% 0.5% 0.2% -6.4% 0.3% -1.6%

2018-19 -18.5% -7.9% N/A 16.0% N/A 16.0% 10.9% -2.8% -2.4% -12.1% -2.8% -4.8%

2019-29 -5.6% -5.5% N/A -100.0% N/A -100.0% 3.5% -0.4% -0.2% -4.3% -0.4% -1.1%

2019-39 -10.4% -10.7% N/A -99.9% N/A -99.9% 2.8% 0.4% 0.5% -5.4% 0.4% -0.4%
99

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,372

2016 129,652 12,986 142,638 9,779 13,751 23,530 3,344 7,233 10,577 27,585 2,478 4,986 211,794 145,982 30,763

2017 129,833 13,083 142,916 9,949 14,217 24,166 3,270 7,241 10,511 26,921 2,551 4,692 211,757 146,186 31,407

2018E 129,885 13,040 142,925 9,925 14,585 24,510 3,335 7,370 10,705 27,365 2,665 4,715 212,885 146,260 31,880

Forecast2019 129,285 13,010 142,295 9,925 14,970 24,895 3,405 7,490 10,895 27,755 2,790 4,745 213,375 145,700 32,385

2024 123,145 12,805 135,950 10,135 17,025 27,160 3,775 8,075 11,850 29,465 3,420 4,820 212,665 139,725 35,235

2029 116,360 12,575 128,935 10,770 19,110 29,880 4,150 8,700 12,850 30,880 4,100 4,865 211,510 133,085 38,580

2034 110,160 12,330 122,490 11,640 21,100 32,740 4,545 9,420 13,965 32,040 4,820 4,880 210,935 127,035 42,160

2039 105,195 12,085 117,280 12,810 23,050 35,860 4,950 10,225 15,175 33,040 5,555 4,890 211,800 122,230 46,085

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -0.9% -2.4% -1.0% 0.7% 3.0% 2.0% -0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 1.2% -10.6% -2.3% -0.6% -1.0% 1.9%

2018-19 -0.5% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.4% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2% -0.4% 1.6%2019-29 -1.0% -0.3% -1.0% 0.8% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 3.9% 0.3% -0.1% -0.9% 1.8%

2019-39 -1.0% -0.4% -1.0% 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% -0.9% 1.8%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2017, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
100

 

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL* LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,8712016 11,865 1,683 13,548 2,708 3,847 6,554 780 2,348 3,128 1,224 187 193 24,834 14,328 8,902

2017 12,047 1,536 13,583 2,625 4,065 6,690 782 2,538 3,320 1,241 209 168 25,212 14,366 9,228

2018E 12,029 1,568 13,597 2,672 4,294 6,966 808 2,613 3,420 1,274 221 169 25,647 14,404 9,578

Forecast2019 11,894 1,578 13,472 2,713 4,528 7,241 832 2,688 3,521 1,305 233 170 25,943 14,305 9,929

2024 10,906 1,577 12,483 2,898 5,571 8,469 946 2,986 3,932 1,445 301 173 26,802 13,429 11,4552029 10,186 1,563 11,748 3,105 6,417 9,523 1,044 3,279 4,323 1,570 374 175 27,713 12,792 12,8022034 9,672 1,547 11,218 3,365 7,173 10,537 1,145 3,584 4,729 1,681 456 176 28,798 12,363 14,122

2039 9,483 1,532 11,016 3,707 7,916 11,623 1,249 3,920 5,169 1,784 542 177 30,311 12,265 15,543

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 -0.1% -1.8% -0.3% 1.8% 3.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% -4.2% -0.8% 0.4% -0.3% 1.8%2018-19 -1.1% 0.7% -0.9% 1.5% 5.4% 3.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.4% 5.6% 0.8% 1.2% -0.7% 3.7%

2019-29 -1.5% -0.1% -1.4% 1.4% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 4.8% 0.3% 0.7% -1.1% 2.6%

2019-39 -1.1% -0.1% -1.0% 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 4.3% 0.2% 0.8% -0.8% 2.3%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2017, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
101

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

AS OF DEC. 31

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT

ROTORCRAFT 

ONLY

GLIDER 

ONLY

TOTAL LESS 

STUDENT 

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT 

RATED PILOTS1

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,0012015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,3292016 175 5,889 162,313 96,081 157,894 15,518 17,991 455,861 302,5722017 153 6,097 162,455 98,161 159,825 15,355 18,139 460,185 306,6522018 144 6,246 163,695 99,880 162,145 15,033 18,370 465,513 311,017

Forecast2019 140 6,515 164,550 101,650 163,300 14,750 18,550 469,455 314,8002024 120 7,925 162,800 102,300 168,400 14,650 18,300 474,495 321,4002029 95 9,360 156,350 101,150 174,200 15,850 17,840 474,845 327,1002034 80 10,680 149,100 99,650 180,800 17,550 17,420 475,280 332,2002039 60 11,705 143,400 98,250 187,900 19,450 17,250 478,015 337,300

Avg Annual Growth

2010-18 -4.7% 6.8% -2.6% -2.6% 1.7% -0.3% -1.8% -1.1% -0.3%2018-19 -2.8% 4.3% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% -1.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2%2019-29 -3.8% 3.7% -0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% -0.4% 0.1% 0.4%2019-39 -4.1% 3.0% -0.7% -0.2% 0.7% 1.4% -0.4% 0.1% 0.3%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

*

Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot 

 numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. As the implementation is very new and there is  not sufficient data to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
102

 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE

EXPERIMENTAL*

* / OTHER

LIGHT 

SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,578

2016 137 42 207 1,117 10 113 17 1 206 1,437 1,643

2017 138 41 198 1,204 10 139 16 1 206 1,541 1,747

2018E 138 41 201 1,270 10 142 17 1 208 1,613 1,821

Forecast2019 137 41 203 1,326 11 146 17 1 207 1,675 1,882

2024 125 41 213 1,551 12 155 18 2 198 1,919 2,117

2029 116 40 224 1,700 13 166 20 2 191 2,089 2,280

2034 108 39 238 1,807 14 176 21 3 185 2,221 2,406

2039 104 39 255 1,896 16 183 22 3 184 2,335 2,519

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 0.5% -3.2% 0.9% 1.6% -0.5% 1.6% -3.2% -1.6% -0.7% 1.5% 1.2%

2018-19 -1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 4.4% 3.1% 2.4% 1.2% 5.6% -0.4% 3.8% 3.3%

2019-29 -1.7% -0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 1.6% 4.5% -0.8% 2.2% 1.9%

2019-39 -1.4% -0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 3.9% -0.6% 1.7% 1.5%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
103

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 244

2015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,578 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,722 264 252

2016 14,417 7,580 13,904 11,632 25,536 1,317 1,145 2,462 49,995 264 252

2017 15,047 7,179 13,838 11,732 25,570 1,326 1,200 2,526 50,322 264 253

2018E 15,686 7,126 14,130 12,354 26,485 1,319 1,155 2,474 51,770 264 254

Forecast2019 16,301 7,197 14,223 12,672 26,896 1,319 1,155 2,474 52,868 264 254

2024 19,093 5,484 14,412 12,870 27,282 1,319 1,155 2,474 54,332 264 254

2029 20,772 5,752 14,606 13,081 27,687 1,319 1,155 2,474 56,685 264 254

2034 22,653 6,047 14,806 13,300 28,106 1,319 1,155 2,474 59,281 264 254

2039 24,663 6,361 15,012 13,526 28,538 1,319 1,155 2,474 62,037 264 254

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.7% -3.4% -0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% -1.5% -0.7% 0.1%

2018-19 3.9% 1.0% 0.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1%

2019-29 2.5% -2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2019-39 2.1% -0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
104

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2010 13,174 9,511 13,864 2,438 38,9872015 13,948 7,861 13,076 2,286 37,1712016 14,640 7,672 13,090 2,311 37,7132017 15,276 7,281 13,276 2,254 38,0852018E 15,900 7,216 13,513 2,260 38,888

Forecast

2019 16,501 7,288 13,575 2,260 39,6232024 19,263 5,321 13,777 2,260 40,6212029 20,972 5,597 14,079 2,260 42,9072034 22,856 5,903 14,401 2,260 45,4192039 24,834 6,228 14,737 2,260 48,059

Avg Annual Growth2010-18 2.4% -3.4% -0.3% -0.9% 0.0%2018-19 3.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9%2019-29 2.4% -2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8%2019-39 2.1% -0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
105

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical2010 22,342 8,624 6,550 2,982 40,498

2015 25,270 7,847 7,007 1,795 41,918

2016 26,318 7,787 7,301 1,826 43,231

2017 26,074 8,591 7,428 1,765 43,8572018E 26,692 9,055 7,407 1,726 44,880

Forecast

2019 27,396 8,864 7,468 1,726 45,4542024 30,503 7,791 7,671 1,726 47,692

2029 33,987 7,589 7,986 1,726 51,288

2034 37,476 7,725 8,358 1,726 55,2852039 41,097 8,001 8,767 1,726 59,592

Avg Annual Growth

2010-18 2.2% 0.6% 1.5% -6.6% 1.3%

2018-19 2.6% -2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 1.3%

2019-29 2.2% -1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2%2019-39 2.0% -0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity