# Public Health Benefits of Reducing

Ground-level Ozone and

Fine Particle Matter

in the Northeast U.S.

A Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

(BenMAP) Study

Prepared by

NESCAUM

For

The Ozone Transport Commission and

The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union



# January 15, 2008

# Members of Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

Arthur Marin, Executive Director

Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

Anne Gobin, Bureau Chief

Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Management

James P. Brooks, Bureau Director

Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Burea u of Air Quality

Barbara Kwetz, Director

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protectio n, Bureau of Waste Prevention

Robert Scott, Director

New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, Air Resources Division

William O’Sullivan, Director

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Office of Air Quality Management

David Shaw, Director

N e w Y o r k D e p a r t m e n t o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n

, D i v i s i o n o f A i r R e s o u r c e s

Stephen Majkut, Chief

Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management , Office of Air Resources

Richard A. Valentinetti, Director

Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, A ir Pollution Control Division

# ii 

# Public Health Benefits of Reducing

Ground-level Ozone and

Fine Particle Matter

in the Northeast U.S.

A Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

(BenMAP) Study

Prepared by

NESCAUM

For

The Ozone Transport Commission and

The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union



# January 15, 2008

# iii



# Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level

Ozone and Fine Particle Matter in the Northeast U.S

.

A BENMAP STUDY

Project Managers

Paul Miller, Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

Principle Contributors

Iyad Kheirbek, John Graham, Shan He, NESCAUM

# iv



# Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services for

providing air quality modeling results from its ana lysis of a potential CAIR+ control

strategy. These results were central to our estima te of health benefits due to this measure

in 2018. We also gratefully acknowledge the techni cal assistance and guidance of Neal

Fann of U.S. EPA and Donald McCubbin and Hardee Mah oney of Abt Associates who

ably guided us in the use and limitations of the Be nMAP tool. Funding was provided by

the Ozone Transport Commission directly as well as through U.S. EPA agreement

number XA-97318101-0 to the Ozone Transport Commission in support of the MANEVU Regional Planning Organization. NESCAUM is sole ly responsible for the content of

this report and any errors it may contain.

Printed: January 2008

# v TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgments....................................

................................................... ....................... iv

Executive Summary..................................

................................................... ....................viii

1. Introduction....................................

................................................... ....................... 1-1

2. Methods.........................................

................................................... ........................ 2-1

2.1. Benefits Analysis Overview ....................

................................................... ..... 2-1

2.2. Estimates of Air Pollution Exposure...........

................................................... .. 2-2

2.2.1. CALGRID Modeling for O 3 

# and PM 2.5



# ................................................... 2-3

2.2.2. CMAQ Modeling for PM 2.5 

# for Regional Haze Control Programs ......... 2-4

2.2.3. EPA’s Air Quality System....................

................................................... 2-5

2.3. Population ....................................

................................................... ................. 2-5

2.4. Health Benefits Assessment....................

................................................... ...... 2-6

2.5. Describing Uncertainty ........................

................................................... ......... 2-6

2.6. Pooling and Aggregation of Studies ............

................................................... . 2-7

2.7. Baseline Incidence Rates ......................

................................................... ........ 2-7

2.8. Concentration-Response Functions and Valuation Methods........................... 2-8

2.8.1. Ozone Concentration-Response Functions...... ........................................ 2-8

2.8.2. PM 2.5 

# Concentration-Response Functions .................. ........................... 2-15

2.8.3. Economic Value for Health Benefits .......... ........................................... 2-21

3. Benefits of CAIR-Plus control scenario ..........

................................................... ..... 3-1

3.1. Benefits from Reductions in Ozone.............

................................................... . 3-1

3.2. Benefits from Reductions in PM 2.5



# ................................................... ............... 3-4

3.3. CAIR+ Benefits Discussion.....................

................................................... ..... 3-7

4. SO 2 

# control measures in MANE-VU....................... ................................................ 4-1

4.1. Reduced sulfur fuel content (S1 and S2) ....... .................................................. 4 -1

4.2. Best Available Retrofit Program (BART) ........ ............................................... 4-6

4.3. 167 EGU Strategy..............................

................................................... ........... 4-9

4.4. Summary of Regional Haze Program Benefits..... ......................................... 4-12

5. Benefits Analysis of the Proposed Ozone NAAQS... .............................................. 5-1

5.1. Overview and Input Assumptions................

................................................... . 5-1

5.2. Results.......................................

................................................... .................... 5-2

6. Conclusions.....................................

................................................... ...................... 6-1

7. References......................................

................................................... ....................... 7-1

Appendix A: State Level Benefits for Regional Haze Programs.................................... A-1

Appendix B: State Level Benefits for CAIR+ .........

................................................... .... B-1

# vi FIGURES

Figure 2-1. BenMAP analysis approach (taken from Be nMAP User’s Manual, Abt

Associates, 2003) ..................................

................................................... ............. 2-2

Figure 2-2. Modeling domain used for CMAQ and CALGR ID modeling studies.

Gridlines are shown at 180 km intervals (15 x 15 12 km cells)............................. 2-3

Figure 3-1. Average change in 1-hr maximum ozone co ncentration due to CAIR+

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1 st 

# -Sept. 30 th 

# ), ppb (positive numbers

indicates an ozone decrease) .......................

................................................... ....... 3-1

Figure 3-2. Average change in 24-hr mean ozone conc entration due to CAIR+ measures

during 2018 ozone season (May 1 st 

# -Sept. 30 th 

# ), ppb (positive numbers indicate an

ozone decrease) ....................................

................................................... .............. 3-2

Figure 3-3. Average change in 24-hr mean PM 2.5 

# concentration due to CAIR+ measures

during 2018 (Jan. 1 st 

# -Dec. 31 st 

# ), μ g/m 3 

# (positive numbers indicate a decrease)... 3-5

Figure 4-1. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to S1 emission reductions ( μ g/m 3 

# ) ...... 4-2

Figure 4-2. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to S2 emission reductions, relative to S1

( μ g/m 3 

# ) ..................................................

................................................... ............. 4-4

Figure 4-3. Potential reductions from BART-eligible sources in the MANE-VU region

(tons) .............................................

................................................... ..................... 4-7

Figure 4-4. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to BART emission reductions ( μ g/m 3 

# ) 4-7

Figure 4-5. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to 167 EGU emission reductions....... 4-10

TABLES

Table 2-1. Summary of studies used in ozone benefit s assessment................................. 2-9

Table 2-2. Summary of studies used in PM 2.5 

# benefits analysis................................. ... 2-16

Table 2-3. Effect estimates for hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness from Ito

(2003). ............................................

................................................... .................. 2-19

Table 2-4. Effect estimates used by BenMAP to estim ate benefits from asthma

exacerbation. ......................................

................................................... .............. 2-20

Table 2-5. Unit values for health incidences used i n benefits analysis (Abt, 2005)...... 2-22

Table 3-1. Summary of avoided incidences attributed to reduced ozone due to CAIR+ in

OTR states.........................................

................................................... ................. 3-3

Table 3-2. Summary of the value of avoided incidenc es attributed to reduced ozone due

to CAIR+ in OTR states.............................

................................................... ........ 3-3

Table 3-3. Summary of the number and value of avoid ed incidences attributed to reduced

PM 2.5 

# due to CAIR+ in OTR states........................ ............................................... 3-6

Table 3-4. Total estimated value of avoided inciden ces attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

CAIR+ in OTR states................................

................................................... ......... 3-6

Table 3-5. Total estimated value of avoided inciden ces attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

CAIR+ in states outside of OTR. ....................

................................................... ... 3-7

Table 4-1. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to S1 fuel sulfur control.4-

2

Table 4-2. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o reduced PM 2.5 

# due to S1 fuel sulfur

control (millions of 2000$). .......................

................................................... ........ 4-3

Table 4-3. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to S1 fuel

sulfur control (millions of 2000$).................

................................................... ..... 4-3

# vii

Table 4-4. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 15 ppm fuel sulfur

control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit. ..........

................................................... .. 4-5

Table 4-5. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 15 ppm fuel

sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit (mi llions of 2000$)...................... 4-5

Table 4-6. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 15 ppm

fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limi t (millions of 2000$)............... 4-6

Table 4-7. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 15 ppm

fuel sulfur control relative to OTB/OTW (millions o f 2000$). ............................ 4-6

Table 4-8. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART...................... 4-8

Table 4-9. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART

(millions of 2000$)................................

................................................... ............. 4-9

Table 4-10. Total Value of avoided incidences attri buted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART

(millions of 2000$)................................

................................................... ............. 4-9

Table 4-11. Avoided incidences attributed to reduce d PM 2.5 

# from 167 EGU strategy.. 4-11

Table 4-12. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 167 EGU

strategy (millions of 2000$).......................

................................................... ...... 4-11

Table 4-13. Total value of avoided incidences attri buted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to 167

EGU strategy (millions of 2000$)...................

................................................... . 4-12

Table 4-14. Total value of avoided incidences attri buted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to regional

haze programs in MANE-VU (millions of 2000$). ...... ...................................... 4-12

Table 5-1. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Avoided

Incidences.........................................

................................................... .................. 5-3

Table 5-2. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Avoided

Incidences.........................................

................................................... .................. 5-3

Table 5-3. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Avoided

Incidences.........................................

................................................... .................. 5-4

Table 5-4. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Value of

Avoided Incidences.................................

................................................... ........... 5-4

Table 5-5. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Value of

Avoided Incidences.................................

................................................... ........... 5-5

Table 5-6. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb Ozon e Standard, Estimated Value of

Avoided Incidences.................................

................................................... ........... 5-5

# viii



# Executive Summary

In this report, the Northeast States for Coordinate d Air Use Management

(NESCAUM) examines the public health and monetary b enefits of several potential

emission control programs under consideration by th e Ozone Transport Commission

(OTC) and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union ( MANE-VU) states. These programs

include an electric generating unit (EGU) control s trategy for nitrogen oxides (NO X 

# ) and

sulfur dioxide (SO 2 

# ) that increases the stringency of the current Clea n Air Interstate Rule

(CAIR) and SO 2 

# emissions control strategies that would complement existing regulations

to further reduce fine particle concentrations and improve visibility under the Regional

Haze Rule. In addition, we performed an examinatio n of the benefits of achieving

several different levels of the National Ambient Ai r Quality Standard (NAAQS) for 8-

hour average ozone concentrations (NAAQS rollback).

We have used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agen cy’s (EPA’s)

Environmental Benefits Modeling and Analysis Progra m (BenMAP) (Abt Associates,

2007) to determine the magnitude and value of avoid ed adverse health endpoints in the

northeast U.S. associated with the various emission control programs in 2018. Future

year air quality associated with implementation of various control strategies have been

simulated using two air quality modeling platforms, the Community Multi-scale Air

Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the California P hotochemical Grid Model

(CALGRID).

We estimated future air quality associated with a m ore stringent CAIR rule

(CAIR+) using CALGRID. Based on our benefits analy sis for 2018, we found that PM 2.5 

# reductions throughout the year due to CAIR+ could r esult in 230 avoided premature

deaths in the OTC states. Combined with reduced in cidences of various morbidity

endpoints, we estimated a total PM 2.5 

# related benefit of 1.5 billion dollars annually in the

OTR. Using the same modeling platform, we estimate d that CAIR+ reductions in ozone

during the May 1 st 

# -September 30 th 

# ozone season could lead to 24 to 76 avoided premat ure

deaths (range of five ozone mortality risk estimate s). When added to other projected

benefits due to reduced incidences of morbidity, we estimated a total ozone related

benefit of 170 to 500 million dollars. Overall, we estimate the CAIR+ program to result

in health benefits of 1.7 to 2.0 billion dollars in 2018 due to reduced adverse health

endpoints from exposures to PM 2.5 

# and ozone in the OTR. In states outside the OTR, we

estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 billion d ollars due to ozone reductions and 4.4

billion dollars due to PM 2.5 

# reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars. Across

the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we estimated a total benefit to the program of

6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars.

We examined four potential control strategies aimed at reducing visibility

impairment, or regional haze, at Class I areas in t he MANE-VU region. The programs

under consideration include limitations on the fuel sulfur content of distillate (500 ppm

fuel sulfur content for the S1 strategy and 15 ppm fuel sulfur content for the S2 strategy)

and residual oil sold in the region, the Best Avail able Retrofit Technology (BART)

provisions of the Regional Haze Rule, and controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (“167 EGU

strategy”) that have the most significant impacts o n MANE-VU Class I areas. Of the four

programs, the 167 EGU stack control program leads t o the greatest benefit in the region,

resulting in 6.5 billion dollars of health benefit. The first phase of a sulfur-in-fuels

# ix

limitation (S1) leads to health benefits of almost 3.4 billion dollars in MANE-VU.

Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm (S2) could lead to an additional 431 million

dollars in benefits, bringing the total benefits to 3.7 billion dollars. The BART estimate

is based on controls at 14 units likely to be contr olled under BART alone and with no

other program that would satisfy the BART requireme nt. CMAQ and BenMAP

modeling suggest that controls at these units could lead to 1.4 billion dollars of benefits in

MANE-VU.

Looking across all regional haze programs, we estim ate a four program total of

11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. This benefit estimate is

based on a 15 ppm fuel sulfur control, BART control s on 14 units in MANE-VU, and

stack controls at 167 EGUs in the East, Southeast, and the Midwest. Additionally, 4.9

billion dollars of health benefits are estimated fo r the states within The Visibility

Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Sou theast (VISTAS) and The Midwest

Regional Planning Organization (MWRPO) in 2018 due to implementation of these haze

control strategies.

In the third step of this analysis, we estimated th e benefits of attaining three

alternative 8-hour ozone health standards – 0.060 p pm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4 th



# highest daily 8-hour max) – in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) using BenMAP. We

started with a baseline that included all “Beyond o n the Way” (BOTW) measures and

CAIR+, then used BenMAP to roll back all monitors i n the domain to each of the three

alternative ozone standards. We calculated benefit s based on the difference between the

baseline grid and the rolled back grid.

The analysis showed that there are significant mone tized health benefits in going

beyond a revised ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 ppm,

which is the upper end of EPA’s range for its propo sed ozone NAAQS revision

(0.070 ppm – 0.075 ppm). Rolling back to a NAAQS o f 0.075 ppm after CAIR+ gave an

estimate of 27 to 142 avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR.

When added to the benefits from avoided morbidity e ndpoints, we estimated monetary

benefits of 192 to 918 million dollars over the 201 8 ozone season. By contrast, adopting

an ozone NAAQS of 0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the range recommended by the

Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC)) in creases the mortality benefits with

an estimated 43 to 220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season.

When added to the benefits from avoided morbidity e ndpoints, we estimate an additional

monetary benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyo nd a 0.075 ppm standard (total benefit

of 300 million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Finally, adopting an ozone NAAQS at

the lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm, results in an increased

estimate of 84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in t he OTR over the 2018 ozone season.

Compared to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling in dicates that a NAAQS set at 0.060

ppm could net almost twice the monetary benefits by providing 394 million dollars to 1.7

billion dollars beyond a 75 ppb standard (total ben efit of 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars

after CAIR+)

.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 1-1



# 1. INTRODUCTION

In order to fully understand the benefits of emissi on control programs, we must

understand how reductions in direct emissions of ai r pollutants and their precursor

species translate into improvements in ambient air quality. This has traditionally been

achieved through the development of emissions inven tories and their application to

chemical transport models that simulate air quality under different inventory

assumptions. Our growing understanding of the publ ic health effects of air quality has

allowed the development of a new suite of tools for assessing the next link in this chain –

the subsequent effect of ambient air quality on pub lic health.

Assessment tools are now available that take simula ted or monitored ambient air

quality as an input and link them to changes in hea lth outcomes. Based on assumed or

modeled changes in pollution levels, the tool tabul ates the most likely public health

response and quantifies the economic value of the a ssociated health costs. This enables

the analyst to more fully account for the benefits of potential emission control strategies.

In this report, we demonstrate that ability by exam ining the public health and monetary

benefits of several potential emission control prog rams under consideration by the Ozone

Transport Commission (OTC) and Mid-Atlantic/Northea st Visibility Union (MANE-VU)

States. We have conducted this analysis in the even t that the states find the information

useful in establishing reasonable progress goals or considering future control programs

related to achieving an ozone or fine particulate N AAQS. The control programs

considered include:

• An EGU control strategy for nitrogen oxides (NO X 

# ) and sulfur dioxide

(SO 2 

# ) that increases the stringency of the current Clea n Air Interstate Rule

(CAIR),

• Additional SO 2 

# emissions control strategies that would complement

existing regulations to further reduce fine particl e concentrations and

improve visibility under the regional haze rule, an d

• A theoretical examination of the benefits of achiev ing several different

levels of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for 8-hour

average ozone concentrations (NAAQS rollback).

We have used EPA’s Environmental Benefits Modeling and Analysis Program

(BenMAP) (Abt Associates, 2007) to determine the ma gnitude and value of avoided

adverse health endpoints in the northeast U.S. asso ciated with air quality improvement in

2018. Future year air quality associated with impl ementation of various control strategies

have been simulated using two air quality modeling platforms, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the Ca lifornia Photochemical Grid

Model (CALGRID).

In the first step of this analysis, we used CALGRID modeled ozone and PM 2.5 

# concentrations in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) in 2018 to examine the potential

health benefits of an increase in the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule

(CAIR). Multi-state discussions within the OTR and with neighboring states outside the

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 1-2



# OTR have included the potential of states acting al one or in partnership with EPA to

increase the stringency of the CAIR program, termed CAIR+. The specific analysis here

represents a CAIR+ proposal as a potential compromi se among a large number of

northeastern and Midwestern states. This proposal had been modeled in ICF

International, Inc.’s Integrated Planning Model (IP M) and subsequently simulated by the

New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services with the CALGRID modeling

platform. We present these results as representati ve of the magnitude of health benefits

associated with this type of program rather than th e specific benefits that would accrue

under whatever additional EGU control program may e ventually result from such

discussions in the future.

A second analysis examined potential benefits of mo deled sulfate reductions in

2018 due to implementation of four potential contro l strategies aimed at reducing

visibility impairment, or regional haze, at Class I areas in the MANE-VU region

(NESCAUM, 2007a). The programs under consideration include limitations on the fuel

sulfur content of distillate and residual oil sold in the region (S1 strategy-500 ppm fuel

sulfur content for No. 2 distillate, 0.25 percent s ulfur for No. 4 oil, and 0.5 percent sulfur

for No. 6 oil; S2 strategy-15 ppm fuel sulfur conte nt for No. 2 distillate, 0.25 percent

sulfur for No. 4 oil, and 0.5 percent for sulfur No . 6 oil), the BART provisions of the

Regional Haze Rule, and controls on 167 stacks at E GUs (“167 EGU strategy”) that have

the most significant impacts on MANE-VU Class I are as.

Finally, we applied a “rollback” approach to determ ine the health benefits that can

be accrued if various levels of the 8-hr average NA AQS for ozone were met in 2018. We

estimated the benefits of attaining three alternati ve 8-hour ozone health standards – 0.060

ppm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4 th 

# highest daily 8-hour max) – in the OTR using

BenMAP. We started with a baseline that included a ll “Beyond on the Way” (BOTW)

measures and CAIR+, then used BenMAP to roll back a ll monitors in the domain to each

of the three alternative ozone standards.

Chapter 2 provides a detailed description of the Be nMAP framework and how we

used it to estimate health benefits for the northea st U.S. This includes descriptions of the

various health studies and detailed descriptions of the modeling procedure and statistical

methods for the three strategies. Chapters 3 throu gh 5 discuss each of the potential

control strategies and present results of the corre sponding health benefits analyses.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-1



# 2. METHODS

2.1. Benefits Analysis Overview

The U.S. EPA along with Abt Associates Inc. have de veloped BenMAP, a

Windows-based program, as a tool for estimating the health impacts and associated

economic values resulting from changes in ambient a ir pollution. This is accomplished

by applying health impact functions that relate a c hange in pollutant concentration with a

change in the incidence of a health endpoint. The program allows users to estimate the

health and economic benefits of an air quality prog ram while adequately describing the

uncertainty and variability in the estimate (Davids on et al. , 2007).

Ambient air quality grids (gridded data files that include air pollution information

used in BenMAP) are created from monitored air qual ity data, modeled air quality data,

or a combination of the two. Potentially exposed p opulations can be modeled for

incidence rates at any year after 1990, using 1990 and 2000 census data along with

county-level projections out to 2025. Populations can be further broken down by

geographical area, race, gender, and age.

BenMAP uses a “damage-function” approach to estimat e the benefits associated

with improvements air quality. This method assigns values to changes in individual

health endpoints (specific effects that can be asso ciated with changes in air quality).

Total benefits are then calculated as the sum of th e values of all non-overlapping health

endpoints. 1 

# This introduces no overall preference structure a nd does not account for

potential income or substitution effects, so that a dding a new endpoint will not affect the

value of changes in other endpoints. (Davidson et al.

, 2007; EPA, 2005; Levy et al.

, 2001; Hubbell et al. , 2005). Figure 2-1 shows the major steps taken in the damage

function approach used by BenMAP to develop benefit estimates.

BenMAP estimates pollutant exposures using air qual ity monitoring or modeling

data, or a combination thereof. The user can creat e air quality grids to estimate average

exposure to particulate matter and ozone for people living in a specified domain using

outputs from various air quality models. Alternati vely, the user can input monitoring

data and estimate a population’s exposure based on proximity to pollutant monitors or

use the monitoring data available in the BenMAP pac kage. Combining the two

approaches, BenMAP can scale the monitoring data sp atially and/or temporally using

modeled data.

Included in the BenMAP package are databases of con centration-response

functions and economic valuations of health impacts . BenMAP users first choose the

health endpoints they wish to model and then choose from a list of epidemiological

studies reporting incidence rates for each chosen h ealth endpoint. The user can pool

different incidence rates from multiple studies usi ng a variety of statistical methods.

Similarly, valuation functions are available for di fferent health endpoints, allowing the

user to choose valuation studies and pool across mu ltiple studies.

1 

## Overlapping endpoints are effect estimates that ma y describe the same effect. For example, one study

may describe the relationship between ozone exposur e and pneumonia while another describes the

relationship between ozone exposure and any adverse respiratory endpoint, which would include

pneumonia.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-2



# We used U.S. census data and population projections for the baseline and control

population databases. These databases, included in the BenMAP package, contain

demographic and population distribution information . In the second step, we used air

quality modeling data developed using the CMAQ and CALGRID models, formatted to

BenMAP specifications. We supplied the air quality grids for the baseline scenario and

control scenario and BenMAP calculated the grid-cel l-specific change in air quality. In

the third step, we chose the health endpoints of in terest as well as the published studies

describing the risk estimate. We based our choices of studies from EPA (2005) and

Davidson et al. (2007). Finally, we chose valuation functions for each health endpoint to

determine the economic benefit of each control scen ario.

Figure 2-1. BenMAP analysis approach (taken from Be nMAP User’s Manual, Abt

Associates, 2003)



# 2.2. Estimates of Air Pollution Exposure

BenMAP offers several ways to estimate exposures us ing a combination of air

quality modeling and/or monitoring data. For this benefits analysis, we have used two

regional-scale air quality models, CMAQ and CALGRID , to simulate ozone and PM 2.5 

# concentrations in future years. Both platforms mod el air quality within a 12-km domain

that covers the northeastern, central and southeast ern US as well as southeastern Canada.

The domain extends from 66 o 

# W~94 o 

# W in longitude and 29 o 

# N~50 o 

# N in latitude with

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-3



# 172 X 172 grid cells. Figure 2-2 displays the modeling d omain used in the CMAQ and

CALGRID platforms.

Figure 2-2. Modeling domain used for CMAQ and CALGR ID modeling studies.

Gridlines are shown at 180 km intervals (15 x 15 12 km cells).



# 2.2.1. CALGRID Modeling for O 3 

# and PM 2.5



# The CALGRID model is an Eulerian photochemical tran sport and dispersion

model. It includes modules for horizontal and vert ical advection and diffusion, dry

deposition, and chemical mechanisms. The New Hamps hire Department of

Environmental Services performed all CALGRID modeli ng and provided the results to

NESCAUM.

CALGRID modeling was performed to assess the benefi ts of one potential Clean

Air Interstate Rule Plus (CAIR+) program option. T o determine the benefits of this

option, the concentration change between two future -year modeled scenarios was

assessed. The chosen reference scenario represents a 2018 projection of emissions and

air quality, which corresponds to compliance with a ll current Clean Air Act regulations,

as well as state and federal measures that are seen by states as being necessary to achieve

compliance with the current 8-hour ozone NAAQS. Wi th the inclusion of state measures

that have been or will be adopted by OTC states for their 2007 ozone state

implementation plans (SIPs), this scenario goes beyond previous requirements and is

referred to as “Beyond on the Way” (BOTW). While s tates and EPA are currently

determining whether these measures will be enough t o achieve the ozone NAAQS by the

2010 attainment date, there is little question that these programs will be fully

implemented by 2018, the analysis year for this stu dy. The MANE-VU Regional

Planning Organization (RPO) inventory development a nd modeling work provide more

detailed information on the BOTW scenario (MARAMA, 2007a; NESCAUM, 2007a).

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-4



# The control scenario compared against this referen ce scenario is a CAIR+

scenario. A separate report documents the basis of this scenario and the associated

assumptions used in its creation (MARAMA, 2007b).

For analysis of CAIR+ reductions in ozone, we suppl ied BenMAP with hourly

data files for the summertime ozone season, May 1 st 

# -September 30 th 

# in 2018 and 2002.

The application used these hourly data files to gen erate a variety of air quality metrics

including, 8-hour average, 8-hour maximum, 24-hour average, 5-hour average, and

maximum 1-hour average. For analysis of PM 2.5 

# , we used 24-hour average data available

from CALGRID modeling for the entire year of 2018 a nd 2002.

We developed future year air quality grids for ozon e in BenMAP using the

“monitor and model relative” option. In this optio n, we began with 2002 EPA Air

Quality System (AQS) monitoring data. These data w ere interpolated to the 172x172

12km modeling grid definition using the Voronoi Nei ghbor Averaging (VNA) algorithm.

A detailed description of the VNA algorithm can be found in Appendix C of Abt, 2005.

The monitor values were scaled using the modeled ai r quality data. This was

done in two steps, spatial scaling and temporal sca ling. In the spatial scaling step,

BenMAP used 2002 CALGRID modeling data with 2002 EP A AQS interpolated

monitoring data. BenMAP spatially scaled by adjust ing the modeled concentration of

each grid cell without a monitor by multiplying the monitored concentration from the

nearest monitor by the ratio of the modeled concent ration at the grid cell without the

monitor to the modeled concentration at the grid ce ll containing the monitor. In the

temporal scaling step, the concentrations of the mo nitors were scaled by the ratio of the

2002 modeled concentration to the 2018 modeled conc entration for the grid cell in which

the monitor is located to develop future year estim ates of air quality.

The scaling approach is meant to take advantage of real world measured PM 2.5 

# and ozone concentrations. The spatial scaling step is meant to improve the interpolation

of monitor data to grid cells without monitors by i ncluding modeled information on

spatial characteristics. The temporal scaling step is useful for using monitored data in

combination with model predicted changes in air qua lity to develop future year air quality

estimates (Davidson et al. , 2007).

The interpolation and scaling steps result in two s ets of 172 x 172 12km grid cell

air quality grids for CAIR+ and BOTW, one set for o zone and one set for PM 2.5 

# . We

assessed the benefits of the CAIR+ program by looki ng at the difference between the

CAIR+ grid and the BOTW grid for each pollutant ind ividually. Concentration

differences within each grid cell were applied to c oncentration-response functions to

determine the change in adverse health endpoints wi thin each grid cell.

We present the results of the health benefits analy sis for this CAIR+ simulation in

Chapter 3. In addition to analysis of CAIR+, we use d the same CALGRID modeling data

to assess the benefits of attainment of various pro posed NAAQS for ozone. We describe

this methodology in Chapter 5.



# 2.2.2. CMAQ Modeling for PM 2.5 

# for Regional Haze Control Programs

The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeli ng system is a threedimensional Eulerian chemical transport model that incorporates output fields from

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-5



# emissions and meteorological modeling systems and s everal other data sources through

special interface processors. CMAQ is designed to provide an air quality modeling

system with a “one atmosphere” capability containin g state-of-science parameterizations

of atmospheric processes affecting transport, trans formation, and deposition of such

pollutants as ozone, particulate matter, airborne t oxics, and acidic and nutrient pollutant

species (Byun and Ching, 1999).

We have used the results from CMAQ sulfate modeling of 2018 to develop air

quality grids for a baseline and multiple control s cenarios. The baseline scenario for the

work described here represents an “On the Books/On the Way” (OTB/OTW) emissions

inventory. This is a projection that requires impl ementation of existing regulations in the

face of “business as usual” projected growth and te chnology change. We have also

developed multiple control scenarios to examine the benefits of regulation beyond

OTB/OTW including a dual-phase fuel sulfur-content control strategy (S1 and S2),

BART, and controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (167 EGU s trategy). Chapter 4 of this

document describes each of these control scenarios in further detail.

CMAQ provided hourly sulfate concentration fields f or the baseline scenario and

the various control scenarios. To input this resul t into BenMAP, we used the sulfate

concentrations to calculate the total PM 2.5 

# concentrations using the IMPROVE algorithm:

Equation 2-1.

Total PM 2.5 

# = (SO4*1.375)+(NO3*1.29)+OC+EC+FineSoil

By applying Equation 2-1 to the sulfate concentrati ons predicted by CMAQ, we

calculated hourly PM 2.5 

# concentrations for each grid cell for the baseline scenario and

each of the four control scenarios. For BenMAP com patibility, we then used the hourly

files to generate 24-hr average concentrations for each modeled day.

The 24-hour PM 2.5 

# CMAQ predicted modeling results from 2018 were inp ut into

BenMAP’s “model direct” format. Using this format, BenMAP imports the baseline and

each control grid to create air quality grids that reflect PM 2.5 

# concentrations within each

grid cell. BenMAP then looks at the difference bet ween the grid cell concentrations in

the baseline and control case to develop an estimat e of change in concentration that is

then used in determining the health benefit.



# 2.2.3. EPA’s Air Quality System

BenMAP contains monitored concentrations of ozone, PM 2.5 

# , and PM 10 

# for the

years 2000-2004 from EPA’s Air Quality System (AQS) . In this analysis, we scaled

2002 monitored concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 

# using model data to develop future

year projections of air quality.



# 2.3. Population

We developed population estimates using PopGrid, an application developed by

Abt Associates that aggregates U.S. census data to specified grid definitions. We

aggregated the census data to the CMAQ 12km grid de finition described above to give a

baseline population grid that matched the pollution grid used in the analysis. The

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-6



# population grid contains a variety of information i ncluding race, age, and gender. For the

control scenarios, we calculate a 2018 population p rojection in BenMAP by calculating a

population-weighted average of the county level pop ulation projection ratios for each

grid cell.



# 2.4. Health Benefits Assessment

BenMAP can calculate adverse health effects related to hundreds of health impact

functions that correspond to changes in PM 2.5 

# and ozone concentrations. BenMAP’s

database contains incidence rate data used to estab lish the baseline health conditions prior

to calculating the change in health effect. In gen eral terms, to calculate point estimates of

the changes in incidence of a given health effect, BenMAP assesses the health impact

function needed for analysis and accesses any data needed by the health impact function

for each grid cell. These data include population information, the change in pollution

exposure at the grid cell, the baseline incidence r ate, and coefficients describing the

uncertainty in the measurement. For each grid cell , the model calculates the change in

incidence of adverse health effects for each health impact function and stores the

information (Davidson et al.

, 2007).

The relationship between the change in concentratio n of a pollutant and the

change in incidences of a particular endpoint is de scribed by a concentration-response (CR) function. C-R functions used in BenMAP’s calcul ations of health benefits are derived

from epidemiological studies where researchers have used data on pollutants and

associated health responses to develop these relati onships. In general, these relationships

follow a linear, log-linear, or quadratic form rela ting change in incidence to the change in

pollution exposure in a grid cell using population information, the baseline incidence rate,

and coefficients describing the uncertainty in the measurement. Section 2.8 of this

document briefly describes each of the health studi es used in this analysis.



# 2.5. Describing Uncertainty

Due to inherent uncertainty in health effect risk e stimates and valuation estimates,

we applied several steps to describe the uncertaint y of the final benefit estimate. Each

health impact function contains a mean risk estimat e as well as a standard error of the

estimate that are used to generate a distribution o f estimates.

To describe uncertainty in health effect estimates, BenMAP utilizes a “Latin

Hypercube Points” method. Based on the number of p oints chosen by the user, BenMAP

will generate a number of incidence estimates that mirror the variability in the inputs to

the health impact function. At each grid cell, Ben MAP calculates the incidence estimate

multiple times, each time adjusting the pollutant c oefficient to describe a different level

of the distribution. BenMAP bases the adjustment o n a calculation utilizing the standard

error of the pollution coefficient, derived from th e published epidemiological study. The

output contains the mean of the estimate as well as an estimate of the incidence at

multiple levels of the distribution. To describe t he entire distribution, we have presented

health estimates as a mean and the 5 percent and 95 percent levels of the distribution.

In addition to providing confidence levels, we prov ide a range of estimates based

on multiple studies examining ozone mortality. We chose five studies examining ozone

effects on mortality to develop a range of estimate d effects. For other morbidity

endpoints, we provide specific estimates derived fr om studies examining groups of

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-7



# adverse endpoints (i.e. any cardiovascular endpoint ) as well as individual adverse health

outcomes (i.e. myocardial infarctions).

Throughout this document we present summary data on incidence and mortality

as the mean of the distribution of the estimate. H owever, to ensure the uncertainty of the

estimate is adequately represented, Appendices A an d B present the estimates in further

detail, showing each individual health endpoint and the 95 percent confidence interval

surrounding the estimate.



# 2.6. Pooling and Aggregation of Studies

When a single study exists for a pollutant-health e ndpoint combination, BenMAP

calculates the health benefit as the change in inci dence rate based on that study’s

concentration-response function. However, for endp oints where multiple impact

functions are available from multiple studies, BenM AP can pool the incidence estimates

using a variety of methods to increase the power of the estimate. For this analysis, when

multiple studies were used to characterize a single health endpoint, we used fixed or

random effects models to pool the multiple estimate s. The fixed effects model assumes

that a single true concentration-response estimate exists and differences between studies

are simply the result of sampling error. This meth od assumes that there is one pollutant

coefficient that can represent the entire modeled a rea. Fixed effects pooling weighs each

study’s estimate by its inverse variance, giving mo re weight to studies with greater

statistical power. When it cannot be assumed that that the only difference between

studies is due to sampling error, random effects po oling is chosen. Random effects

pooling is basically the same as the fixed effects model except it assumes that there is not

only sampling error associated with each study, but that there is also between-study

variability where underlying populations are differ ent. Therefore, the variance is

calculated as the sum of the within-study variance and the between study variance.

Random effects pooling would be appropriate in situ ations with differing population

groups, such as combining studies that take place i n different locations, to account for

differences in population susceptibility (Abt, 2005 ).

When operating BenMAP, the user can choose random/f ixed effects pooling

when combining multiple studies. When this paramet er is chosen, BenMAP first tests if

random effects pooling should be used. This is don e by testing a null hypothesis that

there is a single underlying parameter (fixed effec t pooling). If this null hypothesis is

rejected, the random effects pooling method is util ized. If not, then one can assume

sample error is the only source of variability and fixed effect pooling can be used (Abt,.

2005).

After pooling results and determining changes in in cidences within each grid cell

of the domain, the user can aggregate the results t o various levels including county, state,

and nation. We chose to aggregate these results to present the results as a total benefit

across the entire state.



# 2.7. Baseline Incidence Rates

To estimate the change in incidences of health endp oints, BenMAP relies on a

database of baseline incidence rates. Rather than absolute number of incidences,

epidemiological studies estimate the relationship b etween changes in air quality and the

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-8



# relative risk of adverse health endpoints. This rel ative risk is applied to the baseline

incidence rate to determine the number of adverse c ases avoided.

Baseline incidence rates are available within the B enMAP database. These rates

are derived from a variety of sources including pub lished estimates and Center of Disease

Control (CDC) data. Depending on the health endpoi nt, incidence rates can be

nationwide or region specific. In most cases, age specific incidence rates are available

and are applied to the age specific population esti mates within each grid cell. For tables

and description of incidence rates used within BenM AP, refer to Abt (2005).



# 2.8. Concentration-Response Functions and Valuation Meth ods

In the following sections, we describe the studies used to estimate health risks

associated with exposures to ozone and PM 2.5 

# . We also describe the methodologies

applied to monetize the benefits of reduced inciden ces of mortality and morbidity

endpoints.

Health and economic benefits presented here are lim ited to those available in

BenMAP. Certain benefits are not quantified within the model, including non-asthma

related ER visits, chronic respiratory damage, incr eased need for prescription medication,

and adverse effects on pulmonary function. Some qu antified benefits only monetize ER

visits and cost of hospital admissions which may no t take into account additional health

costs incurred after initial treatment. Furthermor e, we only quantify the human health

benefits of the programs under consideration. Addi tional non-health benefits such as

improved visibility and decreased crop damage would add to the overall benefits of the

programs (EPA 2005). Due to these factors, many of the benefits described in this

analysis may in fact underestimate the true benefit of the programs.



# 2.8.1. Ozone Concentration-Response Functions

Except for mortality, the choice of studies include d in determining the ozonerelated impacts of the control measures within CAIR + was based on those used in EPA’s

impact analysis of the Clean Air Interstate Rule. We followed EPA’s methodology for

study choices and pooling methods. EPA’s CAIR anal ysis did not include estimates of

ozone related mortality so we chose to use C-R func tions from fives studies with

published nation-wide estimates of mortality risks from ozone exposure. The following

sections describe the studies and C-R functions use d by BenMAP to calculate the

incidence changes associated with changes in ozone concentrations while a summary of

the studies used can be found in. A more detailed description is available in the

Technical Appendices of the BenMAP User Manual deve loped by Abt Associates

(available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/benmodels.html ).

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-9



# Table 2-1. Summary of studies used in ozone benefit s assessment.

Health Endpoint Metric Study Study Location Study Population

24 Hour Mean Bell et al. 2004 95 US Cities All Ages

1 Hour Max Ito et al. 2005 7 US Cities All Ages

24 Hour Mean Huang et al. 2005 19 US Cities All Ages

1 Hour Max Levy et al. 2005 US All Ages

24 Hour Mean Bell et al. 2005 US All Ages

24 Hour Mean Schwartz 1995 (all

respiratory) New Haven, CT

24 Hour Mean Schwartz 1995 (all

respiratory) Tacoma, Wa

24 Hour Mean Schwartz 1994a

(pneumonia) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean Schwartz 1994b

(pneumonia) Minneapolis, MN

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar et al

1997 (pneumonia) Minneapolis, MN

24 Hour Mean Schwartz 1994b

(COPD) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar et al

1997 (COPD) Minneapolis, MN

1 Hour Max Bernett et al. 2001 Toronto, CN <2 Years

5 Hour Mean Weisel et al. 1995 New Jersey

5 Hour Mean Cody et al. 1992 New Jersey

1 Hour Max Stieb et al. 1995 New Bruswick, CN

24 Hour Mean Stieb et al. 1996 New Bruswick, CN

8 Hour Mean Gilliland et al. 2001 Southern California

1 Hour Max Chen et al. 2000 Washoe Co, NV

Worker Productivity 24 Hour Mean Crocker and Horst

1981 Nationwide Outdoor workers, 18-65 >64 Years, pooled

estimate >64 Years, pooled

estimate Mortality

Hospital AdmissionsRespiratory

Asthma Related ER Visits All ages, Pooled Estimate

School absence days 6-11 Years, Pooled

Estimate



# Mortality

To estimate the impact of ozone reductions due to C AIR+ on mortality incidences

in the region, we chose five multi-city epidemiolog ical studies. We provide mortality

impacts separately for each study to give a range o f mortality estimates from multiple

independent studies. We chose these five studies d ue to their recent publication and

nationwide sample population.

The C-R function used to estimate the change in mor tality incidences associated

with changes in mortality can be described by the f ollowing log-linear equation:

Equation 2-2.

∆ I f 

# = (1-(1/e( β * ∆ Q)))*I

c 

# *P*A

where ∆ I f 

# is the change in mortality incidence, β is the pollution coefficient, ∆ Q is the

change in ozone concentration, I

c 

# is the current mortality rate, P is the population , and A

is a scalar to convert annual the mortality rate to a daily mortality rate.

Each study utilized in this analysis provides a rel ative risk that is used to develop

the pollution coefficient ( β ) and standard error estimates. The following sect ion gives a

short description of each mortality study used in t his analysis.



# Bell et al., 2004, 95 US Cities

Bell et al. (2004) used the databases developed for the Nationa l Morbidity,

Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) to esti mate a national average relative

rate of mortality associated with ozone exposure in 95 cities, representing about

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-10



# 40 percent of the U.S. population, between 1987 and 2000. The NMMAPS model

employs a two stage statistical model for estimatin g the percent increase in mortality

associated with exposures to ozone. In the first s tage, a time-series analysis is performed

within each community. The results are then combin ed across all communities in the

second stage to produce a national average estimate

.

The NMMAPS approach utilizes cause-specific mortali ty counts obtained from

the National Center for Health Statistics, pollutan t data from US EPA’s Aerometric

Retrieval Service (AIRS), and meteorological data f rom the National Climatic Data

Center on Earth-Info. Time-series analyses of each community controlled for weather,

seasonality, long-term trends such as influenza epi demics, and PM 10 

# . Results from

individual communities were then pooled to give a n ationwide estimate of mortality risk

to ozone exposure on the same day as well as multip le days after exposure (lags). Results

were reported for single-lag models, where estimate s of increased mortality risk were

given for exposures on the same day, next day, two days after exposure, and three days

after exposure (defined as lag 0, lag 1, lag 2, and lag 3, respectively). In addition,

cumulative exposures were investigated using distri buted-lag models that estimated the

association between mortality risk and cumulative e xposure to ozone over the previous

week.

Across the 95 cities used in the NMMAPS analysis, B ell et al. (2004) estimated

that an increase of 10 ppb in the previous week’s o zone concentration was associated

with a 0.52 percent increase in mortality (95% post erior interval = 0.27%-0.77%).

Although BenMAP contains C-R functions for seven in dividual cities derived from Bell

et al. (2004), we chose to use the 95 city average to cha racterize mortality reduction from

this study because it was an estimate of the nation wide risk.



# Bell et al., 2005, US Nationwide Meta-Analysis

Bell et al. (2005) performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect est imates from 39 timeseries studies examining the relationship between o zone and mortality. The results were

compared to the estimates from the National Morbidi ty, Mortality, and Air Pollution

Study (NMMAPS) to provide a means for comparing dif ferent methods for determining

the effect of ozone on mortality. Both effect esti mates were used in the analysis of

OTC’s control measures: using the NMMAPS estimate f rom Bell et al. (2004), and the

US meta-analysis estimate from Bell et al. (2005).

The meta-analysis included 39 time series studies c onducted between 1990 and

2004 that had been peer reviewed, not based on NMMA PS analysis results, and provided

numerical estimates of the relationship between sho rt-term changes in ozone and

mortality including information on the uncertainty of the estimate. The meta-analysis

combined information across locations and estimated the pooled effect using a 2-stage

Bayesian hierarchical model. The statistical metho ds are described in detail in Bell et al.

(2005). The results of the meta-analysis showed th at a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone at

single day or 2-day averaged of lags 0, 1, or 2 day s was associated with an 0.87 percent

increase in mortality (95% posterior interval = 0.5 5% to 1.18%). These percent increase

estimates were converted to a log-relative rate wit h a standard error, the form used in

BenMAP’s C-R function.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-11



# The multi-city meta-analysis showed a larger associ ation between same day ozone

exposure (lag 0) and mortality as compared to the N MMAPS 95 city study. When a

comparison across the cities common to both methods with the same lag structure (8

cities, lag 0), the study found a much lower pooled effect in the NMMAPS analysis. Bell

et al. (2005) indicated that this pattern was indicative of a possible publication bias in the

meta-analysis; papers reporting a positive associat ion may be more likely to be submitted

or accepted for publication. In addition, larger p ooled effects were seen in studies that

reported a single lag (lag 0 or 1) as opposed to th ose reporting multiple lags, a pattern that

researchers suggested indicates that the lag with t he largest effect was most likely to be

reported. The study concluded that while the meta- analysis is useful for combining

multiple studies and examining study differences, i t may be biased to overestimate the

ozone/mortality relationship.



# Ito et al., 2005, 7 US Cities

Ito et al. (2005) conducted a review and meta-analysis of sho rt term ozone

mortality studies published between 1990 and 2003 a nd performed an additional timeseries analysis for seven U.S. cities (Chicago, Det roit, Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul,

New York City, Philadelphia, and St. Louis).

The review and time-series analysis showed a combin ed estimate of 0.39 percent

increase in mortality associated with a 10 ppb incr ease in the 1-hour daily maximum

ozone. The study reported no significant reduction in the effect estimate when particulate

matter was included in the estimate. For our analy sis, we used the single-pollutant, loglinear C-R function to describe the relationship.



# Huang et al., 2005, 19 US Cities

Huang et al. (2005) developed a Bayesian hierarchical distribut ed lag model to

estimate the association of daily variations of sum mertime ozone and cardiovascular and

respiratory mortality counts in 19 cities. The stu dy used data from NMMAPS for

summers between 1987 and 1994 for the 19 large citi es included in the database (Los

Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Hous ton, San Diego, Santa

Ana/Anaheim, Phoenix, Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Jose, Cleveland, San

Bernardino, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Atlanta, and San A ntonio).

The 19 city effect estimate from Huang et al. (2005) was derived using a two

stage approach similar to Bell et al. (2004). In the first step, city-specific relative rates of

cardiovascular and respiratory mortality associated with short-term exposures to ozone

are estimated using a distributed lag Poisson regre ssion model. The regression model

includes factors that control for various confounde rs such as age, yearly trends, day of the

week, temperature and dew point, and other pollutan ts. The overall effect is then

developed by combining information across the 19 ci ties by assuming the true cityspecific effects are normally distributed.

Across the 19 cities investigated in this study, it was found that a 10 ppb increase

in summertime ozone over the previous week is assoc iated with a 1.25 percent increase

(95% posterior interval = 0.47-2.03) in cardiovascu lar and respiratory mortality.

Although BenMAP contains separate C-R functions adj usted for co-pollutants (PM 10 

# , NO 2 

# , SO 2 

# , and CO), we used the single pollutant function in analysis of OTC’s ozone

control programs.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-12



# Levy et al., 2005, US Nationwide

Levy et al. (2005) gathered results from 28 time-series studie s, selecting 48 effect

estimates to be used in a metaregression analysis o f ozone exposure and mortality. Only

time-series studies with published city-specific, y ear-round, all-age relative risk and

variance estimates were used. In addition, the mos t recent studies were used when

multiple studies were available from the same autho r describing the same cities and study

years. Studies based on the NMMAPS database were r emoved as these data were being

reanalyzed by other researchers.

Based on the metaregression analysis conducted in t his study, Levy et al. (2005)

estimate a 0.21 percent increase (95% confidence in terval = 0.16-0.26%) in mortality

with a 10 μ g/m 3 

# increase in the one hour max ozone (0.41% increase in mortality per 10

ppb increase in the one hour max ozone).



# Hospital Admissions due to Respiratory Disease

The concentration response functions we used in thi s BenMAP analysis to relate

changes in ozone concentration to hospital admissio ns due to respiratory disease can be

described by the same log-normal relationship descr ibed in Equation 2-2. The baseline

incidence rate and change in incidence in this case are numbers of hospital admissions

due to respiratory diseases.

To estimate the avoided incidences of respiratory h ospital admissions, we looked

at six studies examining a range of respiratory con ditions, following the same

methodology employed by EPA in its CAIR impact anal ysis. For adults over 65, we used

effect estimates from five studies. Schwartz (1995 ) provided effects estimates relating 24

hour mean exposures to ozone and all respiratory ho spital admissions in New Haven, CT

and Tacoma, WA. These impact functions were pooled together before pooling with

other studies. Moolgavkar et al. (1997) and Schwartz (1994a) reported effect estimat es

for ozone- and pneumonia-related hospital admission s in Minneapolis while Schwartz

(1994b) reported effect estimates for the same endp oint in Detroit. The impact functions

for the Minneapolis studies were first pooled, and then the resulting function was pooled

with the Detroit impact function. Two studies, Moo lgavkar et al. (1997) in Minneapolis

and Schwartz (1994b) in Detroit, provided effect es timates for Chronic Obstructive

Pulmonary Disease (COPD) hospital admissions. Thes e two studies were pooled

together with the resulting impact function added t o the pneumonia impact function. This

result was then reported along with the all respira tory incidence function derived from

Schwartz (1995) to give the estimate for total resp iratory admissions in adults over 65.

Only one study was available with an effect estimat e for respiratory hospital

admissions in children under 2 and its impact funct ion was calculated separately. Burnett

et al. (2001) conducted a time series study examining hos pital admissions in children

below 2 years of age in Toronto, Canada between 198 0 and 1994. The study found that a

1-hr maximum ozone concentration of 45 ppb (5-day m oving average between May and

August) was associated with a 35 percent increase ( 95% confidence interval = 19%-52%)

in the daily hospitalization rate for respiratory p roblems.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-13



# Emergency Room Visits due to Asthma

Following the methodology applied in EPA’s impact a nalysis for CAIR, we

estimated reduced emergency room visits due to asth ma related symptoms by pooling

results from three studies, Stieb et al. (1996), Cody et al. (1992), and Weisel et al.

(1995). The 24-hr and 1-hr max effect estimates fr om Stieb et al. (1996) were first

pooled using fixed/random effects pooling. The res ulting estimate of incidence change

was pooled with the incidence change calculated fro m Cody et al. (1992) and Weisel et

al. (1995) to give the overall effect estimate.

Stieb et al . (1996) investigated the relationship between ozon e concentration and

asthma related emergency room visits for all age gr oups in the summers of 1984 to 1992

in Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada. After contro lling for other pollutants, weather

variables, and long term trends, the investigators found that a statistically significant,

non-linear relationship existed between the frequen cy of asthma related ER visits and

elevated ozone levels, noting a 33 percent higher f requency of asthma related ER visits

when the daily 1-hr maximum ozone concentration exc eeded 75 ppb. Because the

authors described a strong quadratic relationship, BenMAP uses this form for the

concentration response function. Equation 2-3 desc ribes this C-R function derived from

the quadratic regression model (Abt, 2003):

Equation 2-3.

∆ Asthma ER Visits= 

# ( ) ( )



# [ ]

pop

O O BasePop control baseline 

# * * 2

,3 2

,3 

# − β



# where β is the pollution coefficient (different estimate p ublished for 1-hr max and 24-hr

average ozone concentration), BasePop is the baseline population of St. John, New

Brunswick published in Stieb et al. (1996), and pop is the all-ages population within the

grid cell. The estimates based on the 1-hr max ozo ne and 24-hr average ozone was

pooled together to develop an all ages estimate tha t was pooled with the estimates from

Cody et al. (1992) and Wiesel et al. (1995).

Cody et al. (1992) and Wiesel et al. (1995) describe the relationship between

ozone and asthma related ER visits in New Jersey. These studies provide a C-R function

that follows a linear form relating the increase in asthma-related ER visits to increases in

5-hr ozone concentrations. BenMAP uses this linear relationship in its calculations of

change in incidences associated with changes in 5-h r ozone concentrations. The C-R

function can be described by the following linear r elationship:

Equation 2-4.

∆ Asthma ER Visits = ( β /

A )* ∆ Q* Pop

where β is the pollution coefficient, A is the New Jersey study population, ∆ Q is the

change in ozone concentration, and Pop is the population within the grid cell where the

incidence is being calculated.

The effect estimates from these two studies are p ooled together with the effect

estimates from Stieb et al. (1996) to give an overall estimate of change in as thma-related

ER visits.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-14



# School Loss Days

BenMAP calculates the benefits of reduced absenteei sm in schools from effect

estimates derived from two studies, Gilliland et al. (2000) and Chen et al. (2000). The

studies estimate the relationship of elevated ozone to absenteeism in schools due to

illness resulting from exposure to ozone. The esti mates from these two studies were

pooled together to give an estimate of school loss days avoided with reduced ozone

exposures.

Gilliland et al. (2000) investigated the relationship between ozone and other

pollutants and school absenteeism in a cohort of fo urth grade school children in southern

California. Based on school absence reports and pa rental interviews to determine the

cause of absence, the authors reported that an incr ease in 20 ppb of ozone (8-hr, 10 a.m.

to 6 p.m. window) was associated with an increase o f 62.9 percent of illness-related

absence rates (95% confidence interval = 18.4-124.1 %). The C-R function reflects the

results of the single pollutant model and can be de scribed by the following log-linear

relationship:

Equation 2-5.

∆ Total Absence = (1-(1/e ( β * ∆ Q) 

# ))*I*P*A*B

where β is the pollution coefficient derived from the stud y, ∆ Q is the change in ozone

concentration, I is the baseline rate of new absenc es, P is the population within the grid

cell, A is scalar for the percent of school days in the ozone season, and B is a constant

describing the population of school children at-ris k for a new absence.

We pooled the change in absence incidence from Gill iland et al. (2000) with the

estimate from Chen et al. (2000). Chen et al. examined the association between air

pollution and daily elementary school absenteeism i n Washoe County, Nevada. The

investigators regressed daily absence rates on thre e pollutants (PM 10 

# , CO, and O 3 

# ) and

confounders such as meteorological variables and in dicators for day of the week. The

authors found that CO and O 3 

# were statistically significant indicators of absen teeism.

Chen et al. (2000) published the results of multi-pollutant li near regression model,

presenting the β pollution coefficient and standard error based on the 1-hr maximum

ozone from the previous two weeks. BenMAP calculat es the change in incidence using

this β in the following linear C-R function:

Equation 2-6.

∆ Total Absence = β *C* ∆ Q *(I/B)*P*A

where β is the published pollution coefficient based on th e 1-hr maximum ozone from the

previous two weeks, C is a constant to convert β to a proportion, ∆ Q is the change in

ozone concentration, I is the baseline rate of new absences, B is a constant describing the

study-specific school absence rate, P is the popula tion within the grid cell, and A is scalar

for the percent of school days in the ozone season.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-15



# Worker Productivity

Estimates of increased worker productivity with dec reased ozone concentrations

is based on Crocker and Horst (1981) where the inve stigators examined the impacts of

ozone exposure on the productivity of outdoor citru s workers in southern California. The

study measured worker productivity as the change in income with respect to ozone

concentration, reporting a 1.4 percent increase in income with a 10 percent reduction in

24-hr ozone concentration. This estimate is based on the presumption that elevated ozone

influences the worker’s ability to work and thus de creases their productivity. The C-R

relationship used by BenMAP can be described by the following linear relationship:

Equation 2-7.

∆ Productivity = 

# P e dailyincom Q Q Q

* * *

1 0 1 

# − β

where β is the pollution coefficient, Q 1 

# and Q 0 

# are the control and baseline ozone

concentrations, dailyincome is the median daily income for outdoor workers, an d P is the

population of adults employed as outdoor farm worke rs.



# 2.8.2. PM 2.5 

# Concentration-Response Functions

We chose health studies for the analysis of PM 2.5 

# control programs based on

selection criteria described in EPA (2005) and Davi dson et al. (2007). Selection criteria

included whether the study was peer reviewed, study design, study location, study size,

and characteristics of study samples, among other c onsiderations. We gave preference to

prospective cohort studies performed in the U.S. wi th large sample sizes. The study

choices attempted to cover all age groups when choo sing studies to give an accurate

representation of the entire population (i.e., if a children’s health study was used, a

similar study characterizing adult exposures was al so used). Peer reviewed studies and

those examining longer periods of time (thus having more data) were preferentially

chosen to characterize chronic health effects.

The sections below give descriptions of the selecte d studies and C-R functions

used in the BenMAP model. A more detailed descript ion is available in the Technical

Appendices of the BenMAP User Manual developed by A bt Associates (available at

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/benmodels.html ). Table 2-2 shows a summary of the studies

chosen for analysis of PM 2.5 

# control options.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-16



# Table 2-2. Summary of studies used in PM 2.5 

# benefits analysis.

Health Endpoint Metric Study Study Location Study Population

24 Hour Mean Woodruff et al. 1997 86 Cities Infant (<1 Year)

24 Hour Mean Pope et al. 2002 51 Cities >30 Years

Chronic Bronchitis 24 Hour Mean Abbey et al. 1995 San Francisco, San Diego,

South Coast Air Basin >27 Years

Acute Myocardial Infarction

(Non-Fatal) 24 Hour Mean Peters et al. 2001 Boston, MA >18 Years

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar 2003 (COPD) Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean Ito 2003 (COPD) Detroit, MI

Hospital Admissions, Chronic

Lung Disease (less Asthma) 24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar, 2000 (COPD) Los Angeles, CA 1 8-64 Years

Hospital Admissions,

Pneumonia 24 Hour Mean Ito, 2003 Detroit, MI >65 Years.

Hospital Admissions, Asthma 24 Hour Mean Sheppard, 2003 Seattle, WA 0-64 Years

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar, 2003 Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean Ito 2003, (ischemic heart

disease, dysrhythmia, hearth

failure) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean Mookgavkar, 2000 Los Angeles, CA 18-64 Years

Asthma related ER Visits 24 Hour Mean Norris et al. 1999 Seattle, WA <17 Years

Acute Bronchitis 24 Hour Mean Dockery et al. 1996 24 Communities 8-12 Years

Lower Respiratory Symptoms 24 Hour Mean Schwartz and Neas 2000 6 US Cities 7-14 Years

24 Hour Mean Ostro et al. 2001 Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean Vedal et al. 1998 Vancouver, CN

Work Loss Days 24 Hour Mean Ostro, 1987 Nationwide 18-64 Years Mortality

Asthma Exacerbation, Cough,

Wheeze, Shortness of Breath >65 Years. Pooled Estimate Hospital Admissions, Chronic

Lung Disease

Hospital Admissions, All

Cardiovascular (less MI)

6-18 Years, Pooled Estimate 65-99 Years, Pooled Estimate



# Mortality

EPA (2005) reported that the Science Advisory Board Health Effects

Subcommittee has recommended using the Pope et al. (2002) study as the basis for the

primary mortality estimate for adults to be used in its benefit analyses. This study is

based on data collected by the American Cancer Soci ety as part of an ongoing

prospective cohort mortality study of approximately 1.2 million adults. The researchers

have used information on mortality in the study coh ort and PM 2.5 

# monitored data to

develop mortality risk estimates by applying a Cox proportional hazards survival model.

Pope et al. (2002) provides relative risks for all-cause morta lity as well as

cardiopulmonary, lung cancer, and all-other cause m ortality. For this analysis, we have

provided estimates based on the all-cause mortality estimate. This estimate is calculated

using the log-linear C-R function described in Equa tion 2-2.

While Pope et al. (2002) provides an estimate of mortality in the po pulation above

30 years of age, Woodruff et al. (1997) provides a relationship between particulate matter

exposure and infant mortality. The investigators e valuated the relationship within a

cohort of approximately 4 million infants born betw een 1989 and 1991 and particulate

matter exposure. The estimate is calculated using the logistic C-R function described

below:

Equation 2-8.

∆ Cases of Infant Mortality = (1-(1/((1-I)*e ( β * ∆ Q) 

# +I)))*I*P

where β is the pollution coefficient, I is the incidence r ate, ∆ Q is change in PM 2.5 

# concentration, and P is the population 2 years and younger.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-17



# Chronic Bronchitis

BenMAP provides an effect estimate for reductions i n cases of chronic bronchitis

from Abbey et al. (1995). The study examined the relationship betwe en PM 2.5 

# , PM 10 

# , and

TSP and chronic respiratory symptoms in a populatio n of 1,868 Californian Seventh Day

Adventists. In the single pollutant models, long-t erm exposures to elevated ambient

concentrations of PM 2.5 

# showed a statistically significant association wit h development of

symptoms of chronic bronchitis between 1977 and 198 7. The C-R response function

used by BenMAP to estimate the change in chronic br onchitis incidences follows the

following logistic form:

Equation 2-9.

∆ Cases of Chronic Bronchitis = (1-(1/((1-I)*e ( β * ∆ Q) 

# +I)))*I*P*(1- Prevalence )

where β is the pollution coefficient, I is the incidence r ate, ∆ Q is change in PM 2.5 

# concentration, P is the population 27 years and old er without chronic bronchitis, and

Prevalence is the prevalence of chronic bronchitis in the pop ulation.



# Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Non-Fatal)

We estimated the association of PM 2.5 

# exposure to non-fatal heart attacks using

Peters et al. (2001). This is the only currently available U.S. study that provides a

specific estimate for heart attacks (EPA, 2005). P eters et al. (2001) used a case-crossover

approach to analyze evidence that exposures to PM 2.5 

# elevated the risk of myocardial

infarctions (MI). The investigators interviewed 77 2 patients with MI in the greater

Boston area from 1995 and 1996 as part of the Deter minants of Myocardial Infarction

Study while collecting hourly concentrations of PM 2.5 

# , black carbon, and gaseous air

pollutants. Using a conditional logistic regressio n analysis, Peters et al. (2001) estimated

an odds ratio of 1.69 (95% confidence interval = 1. 13-2.34) for an increase of 20 μ g/m 3



# in the 24-hr PM 2.5 

# concentration on the day before the onset. These odds ratios were

converted to a pollution coefficient and a standard error to be used in the following

logistic C-R function:

Equation 2-10.

∆ Cases of Acute MI = (1-(1/((1-I*A)*e ( β * ∆ Q)+I*A) 

# ))*I*A*P

where I is the incidence rate, A is a constant to a djust the incidence rate to number of MI

cases that survive 28 days (93 percent), β is the pollution coefficient, ∆ Q is change in

PM 2.5 

# concentration, and P is the population above 18 ye ars of age.



# Hospital Admissions, Respiratory

We estimated total avoided incidences of respirator y hospital admissions by using

impact functions for several respiratory conditions including chronic obstructive

pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, and asthma. T wo studies were used to estimate

COPD in populations above 65 years old, Moolgavkar (2003) and Ito (2003). The Ito

(2003) estimate is based on a study published to re analyze Lippman (2000) to address

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-18



# issues with the S-plus default convergence criteria . The original study, performed during

1985-1990 and 1992-1994, examined the association b etween particulate matter and

hospitalizations among adults above 65 years of age . BenMAP estimates the health

benefits using a log-linear model (Equation 2-2) wi th a pollutant coefficient derived from

Ito’s reported relative risk of 1.043 for a 36 μ g/m 3 

# increase in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# . We pooled

the estimate from Ito (2003) for populations above 65 years with Moolgavkar (2003).

Moolgavkar (2000a) first used generalized additive models to analyze daily admissions

for COPD in Cook County, IL, Los Angeles County, CA , and Maricopa County, AZ

between 1987 and 1995. The results were then reana lyzed in Moolgavkar (2003) to

address issues with the S-plus default convergence criteria. The reanalysis provided the

effect estimate used for COPD in populations above 65 years of age while the original

analysis (Moolgavkar, 2000a) provided the effect es timate for populations between 18

and 65. We therefore provided a separate estimate for COPD in populations between 18

and 65 from the Los Angeles effect estimate derived from Moolgavkar (2000a) and an

estimate for adults above 65 pooled from Ito (2003) and Moolgavar (2003).

We estimated the avoided cases of hospital admissio ns due to pneumonia in

populations above 65 using estimates published in I to (2003). The estimates are based on

the same Detroit, MI study population used to devel op the COPD estimates. Ito (2003)

applied a Poisson regression model with generalized additive models to develop a risk

estimate that showed a statistically significant re lationship between pneumonia related

hospital admissions and 24-hr PM 2.5 

# . The relative risk of 1.154 for a 36 μ g/m 3 

# increase

in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# was used to generate a pollutant coefficient to be used in a log-linear C-R

function (Equation 2-2).

Sheppard (2003) provides a reanalysis of Sheppard ( 1999), investigating the

relationship between air pollution and hospital adm issions for asthma in Seattle between

1987 and 1994. The study, reanalyzed in 2003 for i ssues involving the S-plus default

convergence criteria, used a Poisson regression mod el with control for temperature,

season, and long term trends. Sheppard (2003) repo rted a statistically significant

association between 24-hour average PM 2.5 

# concentrations and asthma related hospital

admissions. The relative risk of 1.04 for an 11.8 μ g/m 3 

# increase in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# was used

to generate a pollutant coefficient to be used in a log-linear C-R function (Equation 2-2).



# Hospital Admissions, Cardiovascular

We used effect estimates from three studies to asse ss the benefits of reduced

hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness ( Moolgavkar, 2000b; Moolgavkar,

2003; Ito, 2003). In our analysis, we provide sepa rate results for hospital admissions due

to all cardiovascular illness not including MI (Moo lgavkar, 2000b; Moolgavkar, 2003),

ischemic heart disease (Ito, 2003), dysrythmia (Ito , 2003), and congestive heart failure

(Ito, 2003).

Moolgavkar (2000b; 2003) provides effect estimates describing the association of

ambient PM 2.5 

# and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illn ess. The 2003 paper

reports the updated results of 2000b after addressi ng the S-plus default convergence

criteria issue. In these studies, Moolgavkar used a Poisson regression model with

generalized additive models to analyze data from th ree cities – Los Angeles, Chicago,

and Phoenix. PM 2.5 

# analysis was performed on the population within Lo s Angeles. For

populations between 18 and 65, we used the log-line ar function based on the effect

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-19



# estimate from Moolgavkar (2000b) (1.4 percent incre ase in hospital admissions due to

cardiovascular illness associated with a 10 μ g/m 3 

# increase in PM 2.5 

# ). For populations

above 65, we used the log-linear function based on the effect estimate from Moolgavkar

(2003) (1.58 percent increase in hospital admission s due to cardiovascular illness

associated with a 10 μ g/m 3 

# increase in PM 2.5 

# ). Since these estimates describe different

populations we present the benefits to each separat ely.

In addition to providing estimates for hospital adm issions due to COPD and

pneumonia, Ito (2003) reported effect estimates for hospital admissions due to ischemic

heart disease, congestive heart failure, and dysryt hmia. Ito (2003) was a reanalysis of

Lippmann (2000), a study investigating the associat ion between particulate matter and

daily mortality and hospitalization among the elder ly in Detroit, MI. Table 2-3 below

illustrates the reported effect estimates for the d ifferent cardiovascular endpoints

examined in the BenMAP analysis.

Table 2-3. Effect estimates for hospital admissions due to

cardiovascular illness from Ito (2003).

Reason for Hospital

Admission Effect Estimate Form of Effect Estimate BenMAP C-R

Function Form

Dysrythmia 1.046 Relative risk for 36 μ g/m3

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear

Ischemic Heart Disease 1.053 Relative risk for 36 μ g/m3

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear

Congestive Heart Failure 1.17 Relative risk for 36 μ g/m3

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear



# Asthma Related Emergency Room Visits

We estimated the effects of PM 2.5 

# exposure on incidences of asthma related

emergency room visits by using the effect estimate from a study by Norris et al. (1999).

The study examined the association between fine par ticulate matter and emergency room

visits for asthma in Seattle, WA among children und er 18 years. It found a significant

association showing a change of 11 μ g/m 3 

# in PM 2.5 

# was associated with an increased

relative rate of asthma emergency room visits of 1. 15 (95% confidence interval = 1.08-

1.23). EPA (2005) noted that children tend to have higher rates of hospitalization, thus

this estimate should capture a large part of the im pact of PM 2.5 

# on asthma ER visits in the

population, but there may still be significant impa cts in older populations not represented

here. We used the effect estimate from Norris et al. (1999) in a log-linear C-R function

to describe the benefits in the population below 18 years old.



# Work Loss Days

Work loss days are a measure of days of work lost d ue to exposures to elevated

PM 2.5 

# (personal symptoms or caring for a sick relative). We estimated days of work lost

due to PM 2.5 

# using a log-linear C-R function (Equation 2-2) der ived from Ostro (1987), a

6-year, nationwide study performed between 1976 and 1981. Ostro (1987) utilized a

national survey to estimate work loss days and rest ricted activity days and how exposure

to PM 2.5 

# were correlated to these endpoints. Based on a reg ression analysis, Ostro (1987)

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-20



# reported that two-week average PM 2.5 

# exposures were significantly associated with workloss days in a population between 18 and 65.



# Lower Respiratory Symptoms

To estimate the effect of PM 2.5 

# on lower respiratory symptoms, we used an effect

estimate derived from Schwartz and Neas (2000). As part of the Harvard Six City Diary

Study, Schwartz and Neas (2000) examined the associ ation of PM 2.5 

# on lower respiratory

symptoms in 1,184 school children in grades 2 throu gh 5 in six urban areas in the eastern

U.S. The investigators defined a day indicating an occurrence of a lower respiratory

symptom as any day with a report of at least two of cough, phlegm from the chest, pain in

the chest, or wheezing. The study found a statisti cally significant association between

lower respiratory symptoms in the cohort of childre n and PM 2.5 

# . The BenMAP model

uses a pollution coefficient and standard error der ived from the reported odds ratio in a

logistic C-R function (Equation 2-10) applied to th e population between ages 7 and 14.



# Asthma Exacerbation

We estimated the effects of PM 2.5 

# exposure on a variety of acute effects in

asthmatic children between 6 and 18 years of age. We developed estimates of reductions

in symptoms of shortness of breath and wheezing fro m Ostro et al. (2001) and an

estimate of reduction in cough symptoms based on a pooled estimate from Ostro et al.

(2001) and Vedal et al. (1998).

Ostro et al. (2001) gathered daily data on respiratory symptoms among a group of

138 African-American children between the ages of 8 and 13 who had physician

diagnosed asthma. Using a logistical regression mo del, the authors developed odds ratios

to describe the relationship between elevated parti culate matter, ozone, and NO 2 

# and

three asthma symptoms, cough, wheeze, and shortness of breath. Similarly, Vedal et al.

(1998) used a logistical regression model to examin e the relationship between particulate

matter and cough symptoms among asthmatic children between the ages of 6 and 13

years in Vancouver, BC. We described the effect es timates for wheeze and shortness of

breath from Ostro et al. (2001) and the effect estimate for cough from a po oled estimate

of Ostro et al. (2001) and Vedal et al. (1998). Table 2-4 below shows the published

effect estimates used by BenMAP.

Table 2-4. Effect estimates used by BenMAP to estim ate

benefits from asthma exacerbation.

Asthma Symptom Effect

Estimate Form of Effect Estimate BenMAP C-R

Function Form

Shortness of Breath, Ostro et

al. (2001) 1.10 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic

Wheeze, Ostro et al. (2001) 1.08 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic

Cough, Ostro et al. (2001) 1.10 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic

Cough, Vedal et al. (1998) 1.07 Odds Ratio, 24-hr PM2.5 Logistic

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-21



# Acute Bronchitis

We estimated benefits from reductions in cases of a cute bronchitis from estimates

developed by Dockery et al. (1996). The study investigated the health effects of

exposures to acidic air pollution in 13,369 white c hildren between the ages of 8 and 12

years old in 24 communities between 1988 and 1991. The study developed estimates of

pollutant exposures on cases of bronchitis, asthma, wheeze, cough, and phlegm. Cases of

bronchitis were defined as a chest illness diagnose d as bronchitis occurring within the

previous 12 months. Although this does not differe ntiate between temporary, chronic, or

acute bronchitis, BenMAP assumes this estimate desc ribes cases of acute bronchitis (Abt,

2005). BenMAP uses a logistic C-R function based o n an odds ratio of 1.50 (95%

CI=0.91-2.47) associated with being in the most pol luted city versus the least polluted

city.



# 2.8.3. Economic Value for Health Benefits

Concentration-response functions derived from epide miologic studies provide

estimates of the number of incidences avoided of a particular adverse health effect

attributed to a reduction in air pollution. An est imate of the value of this reduced risk can

be described as either a willingness to pay (WTP) o r cost of illness (COI) or a

combination of the two. The WTP describes the medi cal cost of a certain health endpoint

along with value associated with avoiding the pain and suffering resulting from the

illness. In many cases, WTP estimates are not avai lable, and the value of a health benefit

is described by the COI, or the cost of treating an illness combined with the value of lost

productivity. The COI estimates generally underest imate the true health benefit because

they do not include the value of avoided pain and s uffering from the health the effect

(EPA 2005).

In the following sections, we offer a short descrip tion of the valuation estimates

used in this analysis for various health endpoints. For a more thorough discussion refer

to Abt (2005), EPA (2005), and EPA (2007). A summa ry of the unit values used in this

analysis can be found in Table 2-5.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-22



# Table 2-5. Unit values for health incidences used i n benefits analysis (Abt, 2005).

Endpoint Group Endpoint Unit Value of Avoided

Incidence (2000$)

Mortality Mortality, All Ages $6,324,101

All Respiratory, >65 Years $18,393

All Respiratory, <2 Years $7,759

Pneumonia, >65 years $17,844

COPD, >65 Years $13,648

Asthma $7,788

All Cardiovascular, >65 years $21,191

Congestive Heart Failure, >65 $15,218

Dysrythmia $15,237

Ischemic Heart Disease $25,876

Emergency Room Visits Asthma Related Emergency

Room Visits $261-$312, Pooled Estimate

School Loss days School Loss Day $75

Work Loss Days Work Loss Days Based on county specific

median daily wage

Chronic Bronchitis Chronic Bronchitis, >30 Years $340,482

Acute Bronchitis Acute Bronchitis, Ages 8-12 $374

Acute Myocardial Infarction Acute MI, Age specific e stimates $66,000-$143,000*

Lower Respiratory Symptoms Lower Respiratory Symptoms,

Ages 7-14 $187

Asthma Exacerbations Cough, Shortness of Breath,

Wheeze, Ages 6-18 $74 Hospital Admissions,

Respiratory



# * Value estimate is age specific, range is shown he re.



# Mortality Valuation

To estimate the economic benefit associated with re duced mortality risk, we used

the “value of statistical lives” saved (VSL) approa ch available in BenMAP. The VSL

estimate is based on 26 value of life studies, with a mean estimate of 6.3 million dollars

(2000$) per avoided incidence of mortality. Of the 26 value of life studies, some gather

WTP estimates from study subjects while others are wage-risk studies that derive WTP

estimates from information about the additional com pensation demanded for riskier jobs.

The VSL value used here does not distinguish among people based on age or quality of

life, thus applied equally to all premature deaths.



# Hospital Admissions Valuation

To estimate the economic benefits associated with r educed hospital admissions

due to a variety of health endpoints, we used the c ost of illness estimates available in

BenMAP (cost of medical treatment plus estimate of wages lost). Because estimates of

WTP were unavailable, these estimates tend to be bi ased downward as they do not

include the value of avoiding pain and suffering.

The COI estimates available are specific to the ind ividual health endpoint as

classified by the International Classification of D iseases (ICD). The estimates are

calculated as the year 2000$ sum of hospital charge s and cost of time spent in the

hospital, estimated as the value of lost daily wage s (based on the county-specific median

wage).

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-23



# Emergency Room Visits due to Asthma Valuation

We estimated the value of reduced asthma related ER visits by pooling the two

COI estimates available in BenMAP (Smith et al. , 1997; Stanford et al. , 1999). Smith et

al. (1997) estimated the average cost per emergency ro om visit for asthma at $312 while

Stanford et al. (1999) estimated the cost at $261. We pooled thes e estimates to present

the COI-based value of avoided incidences of ER vis its due to asthma.



# Worker Productivity Valuation

Crocker and Horst (1981) estimated the value of inc reased worker productivity

with decreased ozone concentrations for outdoor cit rus workers in southern California.

Both incidences and value of the benefit are descri bed as loss of income due to reduced

worker productivity.



# School Loss Days Valuation

BenMAP offers a single estimate for the value of sc hool loss days. The estimate

is based on the 

# probability that if a child stays home from school, a parent will have to

stay home from work to take 

# care of the child. The value is based on the value of the

parent’s lost productivity. This was done by first estimating the number of single,

married, and “other” (i.e., widowed, divorced, or s eparated) women with children in the

workforce. Then, based on the median wage for wome n above 25 years old, the value of

a missed day of work is estimated. This value is t hen used as the value of a school loss

day.

This method for valuing school loss days likely und erestimates the true value as

the WTP is not included in the estimate and only sc hool absences resulting in a missed

day of work for the parent is quantified. Abt (200 5) considers this valuation estimate an

“interim” value until an alternative method for the valuation of this health endpoint is

developed. In addition, BenMAP calculates school a bsences based on the assumption

that children are in school during all of May, two weeks in June, one week in August, and

all of September. The estimated health benefits do not account for absences during

summer school sessions.



# Chronic Bronchitis Valuation

Following the methodology employed by EPA 2005, we estimate the value of

reduced incidences of chronic bronchitis using the WTP estimate based on Viscusi et al.

(1991). Because Viscusi et al. (1991) describes the WTP for severe cases of chron ic

bronchitis, BenMAP uses an adjusted estimate to acc ount for the likelihood that an

average case of pollution-related chronic bronchiti s is not severe. Details on the

adjustment procedure can be found in Abt (2005).



# Acute Bronchitis Valuation

BenMAP estimates the value of reduced incidences of acute bronchitis in children

based on WTP data on bronchitis related symptoms. Abt (2005) notes that WTP

estimates have not been developed for cases of acut e bronchitis and need to be

extrapolated from data on symptoms related to the c ondition. Additionally, WTP data on

symptoms associated with acute bronchitis are avail able only in adults. Therefore, the

estimate within BenMAP is based on an adjusted valu e previously used in EPA’s benefit

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-24



# analyses. The unit value has been adjusted to acco unt for the duration of events of acute

bronchitis and data showing that parents are willin g to pay about twice as much to avoid

sickness in their children as in themselves (Dicky et al. , 2002). We based the acute

bronchitis valuation estimate on the Dicky et al . (2002) estimate of the cost of a case of

acute bronchitis with 28 symptom days. Details on the unit values and adjustment

methods can be found in Abt (2005).



# Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Non-Fatal) Valuation

BenMAP contains several age-specific COI estimates that can be used to assign a

value to an avoided incidence of myocardial infarct ion. In this analysis, we applied a

methodology similar to that used in EPA’s CAIR Regu latory Impact Analysis (EPA,

2005). We used a simple average of the cost estima tes available from Russel et al.

(1998) and Wittels et al. (1990). These studies estimate the expected total medical cost

of a myocardial infarction over five years, offer s eparate estimates for different age

categories, and use a 3 percent discount rate in th e value calculation.



# Work Loss Days Valuation

The value of a lost day of work is calculated based on the county-specific median

daily wages. The total value is simply the product of work days missed and the median

daily wage within the county.



# Asthma Exacerbation Valuation

Of the several valuation units available, we used a n estimate based on a study

performed by Dicky et al. (2002). BenMAP relies on this study’s WTP estimat e for an

avoided incidence of childhood asthma. The estimat e is doubled based on evidence from

Dicky et al. (2002) that parents are willing to pay about twice as much to avoid

symptoms and illness in their children as in themse lves.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-1



# 3. BENEFITS OF CAIR-PLUS CONTROL SCENARIO

3.1. Benefits from Reductions in Ozone

We utilized CALGRID model output and 2002 monitorin g data to provide

estimates of ozone concentrations in 2018 under a B OTW control scenario and a CAIR+

control scenario. We quantified the benefits based on the difference of these two control

scenarios to determine what health benefits can be attributed to implementation of the

CAIR+ program.

The majority of the ozone health impact studies are based on changes in the 1-hr

maximum ozone concentration and the 24-hr mean ozon e concentration. BenMAP uses

the change in these metrics to calculate the change in risk of experiencing an adverse

health endpoint, and in turn the reduced number of incidences. Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2

show the average change in 1-hr max and 24-hr mean ozone concentrations during the

2018 ozone season between the BOTW scenario and the CAIR+ scenario.

Figure 3-1. Average change in 1-hr maximum ozone co ncentration due to CAIR+

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1 st 

# -Sept. 30 th 

# ),

ppb (positive numbers indicates an ozone decrease)

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-2



# Figure 3-2. Average change in 24-hr mean ozone conc entration due to CAIR+

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1 st 

# -Sept. 30 th 

# ),

ppb (positive numbers indicate an ozone decrease)

Figure 3-1and Figure 3-2 indicate that while the la rgest decreases in ozone levels

due to CAIR+ are occurring in the south/southeast r egion, the OTR states still see

decreases in average ozone concentrations. Within certain metropolitan areas, such as

Boston and Philadelphia, we see increases in averag e ozone concentrations. We

investigated this by looking at the diurnal profile s for the CAIR+ and BOTW scenarios

within the grid cells surrounding the cities where average increases were found. In these

grid cells, we saw slight to moderately higher hour ly levels in the CAIR+ case during the

nighttime hours while hourly concentrations during the day time were very similar in the

two cases. Nighttime levels were between 5 and 20 ppb depending on the grid cell while

differences between the two cases at night were gen erally between 5 and 10 ppb. The

wide availability of NOx in urban environments rapi dly depletes ozone concentrations

after sunset when ozone production is no longer tak ing place, an effect known as NOx

scavenging. We conclude that the CALGRID and BenMA P results reflect a decrease

in nighttime NOx scavenging which allow ozone conce ntrations to return closer to

natural background levels (~30ppb) than what is curr ently observed during overnight

hours.

Based on the reduced ozone concentrations shown in Figures 3-1 and 3-2, we

estimated the avoided incidences and value of the a voided incidences of mortality and

several morbidity endpoints. Table 3-1 displays th e mean of the estimated value of

reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity. We present mortality as a range of

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-3



# estimates based on five studies examining the relat ionship between elevated ozone

concentrations and mortality. More detailed estima tes of avoided incidences along with

study specific mortality estimates and confidence i ntervals of the estimates can be found

in Appendix B.

Table 3-1. Summary of avoided incidences attributed to reduced

ozone due to CAIR+ in OTR states.

State ER Visits, Asthma Hospital Admissions, All

Respiratory Endpoints,

>64 Years and <2 Years School Loss Days Loss of Income Due

to Decreased Worker

Productivity Mortality (Range of Five

Studies)

CT 2.0 19.4 3350 52694 1.3 - 2.9

DE 0.3 2.1 642 14732 0.1 - 0.6

DC 1.1 11.8 1438 11115 0.9 - 2

ME 0.5 6.1 865 102753 0.5 - 1.1

MD 9.5 90.0 14531 255691 5.8 - 13.1

MA 0.6 -2.0 1625 -44271 -1.3 - 1.8

NH 0.5 4.2 893 22557 0.3 - 0.8

NJ 3.5 22.7 6221 45732 1 - 6

NY 11.9 107.7 19439 356131 7.2 - 18

PA 6.2 44.3 10681 311259 2.3 - 13.4

RI 0.4 1.5 712 2558 0 - 0.8

VT 0.2 2.5 326 31347 0.2 - 0.4

VA 10.5 96.8 16470 544941 5.7 - 15.5

OTR Total 47.4 407.2 77191 1707240 24.4 - 76



# Table 3-2 shows that reductions in ozone due to CAI R+ control strategies could

result in 24 to 76 reduced incidences of premature mortality over all OTR states. Table

3-2 shows that these reductions result in the major ity of the value of the program

predicted by BenMAP. Appendix B displays a more de tailed state-by-state estimate of

the value of reduced incidences in OTR states.

Table 3-2. Summary of the value of avoided incidenc es attributed to reduced

ozone due to CAIR+ in OTR states.

State Total Value of Avoided Respiratory

Endpoints- Hospital Admissions >64 Years

and <2 Years, Asthma ER Visits, School

Loss Days, Decreased Worker Productivity

(Millions of 2000$) Mortality- Range of

Five Studies (Millions

of 2000$)

CT 0.59 8 - 18.52

DE 0.09 0.35 - 3.91

DC 0.30 5.64 - 12.9

ME 0.26 2.9 - 6.92

MD 2.64 36.28 - 82.57

MA 0.00 -8.23 - 11.46

NH 0.15 1.58 - 5.27

NJ 0.79 6.06 - 37.57

NY 3.40 45.62 - 113.91

PA 1.70 14.22 - 84.45

RI 0.07 0.04 - 4.76

VT 0.09 1.18 - 2.65

VA 3.13 35.66 - 97.78

OTR Total 13.20 153.86 - 479.55

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-4



# Table 3-2 shows that a CAIR+ program could result i n an estimated 167 to 493

million dollars in saved health costs due to avoide d morbidity and mortality in 2018.

Over 90 percent of this estimate is based on the be nefit calculated from reduced

incidences of premature mortality. Appendix B disp lays the estimates of incidence and

value of each morbidity endpoint and mortality stud y used in this analysis as well as

confidence intervals calculated within BenMAP.

Figure 3-2 indicates that the majority of the CAIR+ induced ozone reductions

tend to occur in the South and Southeast region. B ased on our analysis, we estimate an

additional 43 million dollars in benefit from reduc ed incidences of respiratory endpoints

and 520 million to 1.4 billion dollars in benefit f rom reduced incidences in mortality in

the states outside of the OTR. Overall, CAIR+ resu lts in an additional benefit of 560

million to 1.4 billion dollars of benefit in the st ates outside of the OTR (within the

modeled domain) due to reductions in ozone.



# 3.2. Benefits from Reductions in PM 2.5



# We utilized the CALGRID model output and 2002 monit oring data to estimate

PM 2.5 

# concentrations in 2018 under a BOTW control scenar io and a CAIR+ control

scenario. Much like the method used to develop air quality grids for ozone, we used the

ratio of the 2002 CALGRID modeling data to each of the future year scenarios to adjust

2002 monitoring data. The future year air quality grids contained information on the 24-

hr average PM 2.5 

# concentrations for each of the future year scenari os over the entire year.

The change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# is the only metric used to calculate avoided healt h endpoints

due to reduced exposures to PM 2.5



# .

Figure 3-3 shows that while the majority of the PM 2.5 

# reductions used in the

calculation of health benefits are expected to occu r in the southern states, significant

reductions also occur within the OTR. Within the O TR, the largest PM 2.5 

# reductions due

to CAIR+ occur in the southern part of the region w hile the northern states see a smaller

benefit from the program. The CALGRID modeling pre dicts slight increases in PM 2.5 

# along the eastern coast of Massachusetts and in Rho de Island. A more detailed

examination of this phenomenon revealed that the tw o modeled scenarios were developed

from IPM model runs that had different (and inconsi stent) reference assumptions (e.g. the

price of natural gas). The result is that a signif icant increase in coal-fired power

generation in the Northeast was modeled in the CAIR + scenario that was not a result of

the CAIR+ program itself (these simulated plants ar e in the IPM CAIR scenario as well

as the CAIR+ scenario that used the same assumption s). However, when we compare

this scenario to the BOTW scenario that used differ ent assumptions (resulting in little or

no new coal generation in the region) we see projec t increased PM2.5 due to the input

assumptions not related to the CAIR+ program.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-5



# Figure 3-3. Average change in 24-hr mean PM 2.5 

# concentration due to

CAIR+ measures during 2018 (Jan. 1 st 

# -Dec. 31 st 

# ),

μ g/m 3 

# (positive numbers indicate a decrease)

While this calls into question the specific benefit s assessment for any given

location, we are confident that the overall regiona l estimates of benefits are still valid

given the broad-based reductions required under the CAIR+ program. This analysis

would need to be repeated with air quality scenario s based on consistent IPM

assumptions in order to develop location-specific e stimates of health benefits for the

CAIR+ program.

We applied the changes in PM 2.5 

# concentrations predicted by CALGRID from

Figure 3-3 to estimate the magnitude and value of a voided adverse health endpoints

within the domain. Table 3-3 displays the total be nefit from all OTR states for all the

endpoints calculated within this study. State-spec ific estimates and confidence intervals

of the estimates are in Appendix B.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-6



# Table 3-3. Summary of the number and value of avoid ed incidences

attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to CAIR+ in OTR states.

Incidences (Mean) Value (mean, Millions of 2000$)

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 228 1433.66

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.38 2.42

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 319 0.12

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 404 26.65

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic

children, 6 to 18) 2446 0.38

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic

children, 6 to 18) 4282 0.67

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath

(asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2708 0.42

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 145 48.80

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years

and younger) 166 0.05

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65

years and older) 50 0.76

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d

older) 14 0.22

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65

years and older) 25 0.66

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 26 0.20

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing

Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 87 1.86

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing

Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 45 1.02

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5

years and older) 22 0.29

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64

years) 11 0.12

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and

above) 65 1.17

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 26716 3.66

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3793 0.71 

## OTR Totals



# Table 3-4 indicates that much like ozone, the major ity of the economic benefits of

CAIR+ reductions in PM 2.5 

# are due to reduced mortality in the region. It sho uld be noted,

however, that hundreds of emergency room visits and hospital admissions would also be

avoided each year. Table 3-4 displays the total mon etary benefit of CAIR+ reductions in

PM 2.5 

# in the OTR for the three categories of benefits – cardiovascular endpoints,

respiratory endpoints, and mortality.

Table 3-4. Total estimated value of avoided inciden ces

attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to CAIR+ in OTR states.

Endpoint OTR Total Value (Millions of 2000$)

Mortality 1436.08

Cardiovascular Symptoms 31.17

Respiratory Symptoms 56.60

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-7



# In states outside the OTR, we see significant addit ional benefits attributed to

CAIR+ reductions in PM 2.5 

# . Table 3-5 below displays the monetized benefit t o states

outside the OTR (but within the modeling domain) at tributed to reductions in PM 2.5



# . Overall we estimate that CAIR+ could result in 4.4 billion dollars in benefits to the states

outside of the OTR.

Table 3-5. Total estimated value of avoided inciden ces

attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to CAIR+ in states outside of OTR.

Endpoint Total Value from States Outside OTR

(Millions of 2000$)

Mortality 4185.95

Cardiovascular Symptoms 74.34

Respiratory Symptoms 165.57



# 3.3. CAIR+ Benefits Discussion

Based on our analysis of modeled concentrations in 2018 using BenMAP, we

estimated benefits from reductions of ozone and PM 2.5 

# in the OTR due to CAIR+ control

measures. We estimated a total value in 2018 of 1. 52 billion dollars from reductions in

PM 2.5 

# exposure and a total value in the five month ozone season in 2018 of 167 to 492

million dollars from reductions in ozone exposure. Overall, the we estimate that the

CAIR+ program could result in 1.7 to 2.0 billion do llars in 2018 due to reduced adverse

health endpoints from exposures to PM 2.5 

# and ozone in the OTR. In states outside the

OTR, we estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 b illion dollars due to ozone reductions

and 4.4 billion dollars due to PM 2.5 

# reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars.

Across the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we es timated a total benefit to the

program of 6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars.

While the majority of the reductions in PM 2.5 

# and ozone occur in the south and

southeast regions, a large benefit is also accrued along the East Coast. States showing the

largest benefit to these programs are along the sou thern portion of the OTR including

Maryland, Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. Fewe r benefits are seen in the northern

states such as Maine and New Hampshire as projectio ns indicate that compliance with

CAIR+ tends to reduce power plant emissions to a gr eater extent in the southern states.

In addition, the use of inconsistent input assumpti ons to the two IPM runs used to create

the different air quality scenarios result in estim ated increases of PM 2.5 

# within some grid

cells. Some small increases in ozone in urban loca tions can be attributed to reduced

nighttime NOx scavenging. However, such increases w ere small and limited in spatial

scale while the overall program results in large ne t benefits to the broader region.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-1



# 4. SO 2 

# CONTROL MEASURES IN MANE-VU

We analyzed a second set of control scenarios with respect to potential health

benefits based on four control strategies aimed at reducing regional haze at Class I areas

in the MANE-VU region. These programs include two separate but linked low-sulfur

content fuel initiatives (the S1 and S2 strategies) , the BART provisions of the Regional

Haze Rule, and controls on EGUs at the 167 stacks m ost likely to affect MANE-VU

Class I areas (167 EGU strategy). This chapter rev iews the control strategies in more

detail, describes the potential emissions reduction s, and describes the potential health

benefits of each strategy and the combination.



# 4.1. Reduced sulfur fuel content (S1 and S2)

The MANE-VU states have agreed through consultation s to pursue a low sulfur

fuel strategy within the region. This phased strat egy would be implemented in two steps;

however, both components of the strategy are to be fully implemented by 2018. We have

analyzed both steps of the program as separate stra tegies, but it is the combined benefit of

implementing the program that is relevant to the qu estion of program benefits.

The S1 strategy requires the lowering of fuel-sulfu r content in distillate (#2 oil)

from current levels that range between 2,000 and 2, 300 ppm down to 500 ppm by weight.

It also restricts the sale of heavier blends of res idual oil (#4 fuel oil and #6 bunker fuels)

that have sulfur content greater than 0.25 percent sulfur and 0.5 percent sulfur by weight,

respectively. The S2 strategy further reduces the f uel-sulfur content of the distillate

fraction to 15 ppm sulfur by weight. The residual oil is maintained at the same S1 level

for this strategy.

The S1 strategy and S2 strategy are to be implement ed in sequence with slightly

different timing for “inner zone” states 2 

# and the remainder of MANE-VU. All states,

however, have agreed to pursue reductions that woul d take place no later than 2018.

Thus for the purposes of this analysis, we have exa mined the benefits of the S1 and S2

strategies separately below.

Based on the fuel sulfur limits within the S1 strat egy, we estimated a decrease of

140,000 tons of SO 2 

# emitted from distillate combustion and 40,000 tons of SO 2 

# from

residual combustion in MANE-VU. Figure 4-1 display s the resulting average change in

24-hr average PM 2.5 

# between the baseline case (OTB/OTW) and the contro l case where

the S1 fuel strategy has been implemented.

We used the concentration changes in Figure 4-1 abo ve to derive health benefits

and their associated valuation using BenMAP. Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 display the total

number of reduced incidences and value of reduced i ncidences within MANE-VU,

VISTAS, and MWRPO. Because the S1 fuel sulfur prog ram only affects sources within

MANE-VU, that region sees the largest PM 2.5 

# reduction and the greatest health benefits.

2 

## The inner zone includes New Jersey, Delaware, New York City, and potentially portions of eastern

Pennsylvania.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-2



# Figure 4-1. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to S1 emission reductions ( μ g/m 3 

# )

Table 4-1. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to S1 fuel sulfur control.

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 513 32.1 8.7

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.77 0.07 0.02

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 754 50.9 12.9

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 145 9.6 2.49

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 812 78.7 15.9

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 1421 137.7 27.74

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 899 87.1 17.55

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 337.5 22.1 5.61

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 44.8 6.84 1.64

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 16.1 1.38 0.34

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 5 0.33 0.08

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 8.6 0.65 0.15

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 10 0.59 0.13

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial

Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 29.5 2.25 0.52

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial

Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 14.7 1.3 0.22

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 7 0.61 0.14

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 3.7 0.32 0.07

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 20.5 1.86 0.48

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 8795 849 167

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1245 122 25

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-3



# Table 4-2. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o reduced PM 2.5



# due to S1 fuel sulfur control (millions of 2000$).

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 3230 202 55

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 4.86 0.47 0.12

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.28 0.02 0.005

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 9.55 0.63 0.16

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 0.13 0.01 0.002

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 0.22 0.02 0.004

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 0.14 0.01 0.003

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 114 7 2

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.01 0 0

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 0.25 0.02 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 0.08 0.01 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.22 0.02 0.004

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 0.08 0 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial

Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.63 0.05 0.011

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial

Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.34 0.03 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 0.1 0.01 0.002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 0.04 0 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.37 0.03 0.009

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1.24 0.1 0.021

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.23 0.02 0.005



# Table 4-3 displays the total value of the S1 progra m in each of the three RPOs.

Implementation of this fuel strategy aimed at regio nal haze improvement could result in

almost 3.5 billion dollars of benefit to the MANE-V U states. Additionally, this strategy

could result in 270 million dollars of health benef it to the states within the VISTAS and

MWRPO states.

Table 4-3. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5



# due to S1 fuel sulfur control (millions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO



## Mortality 3234 203 55

Cardiovascular Symptoms 10.5 0.71 0.2

Respiratory Symptoms 117 7.7 2



# The S2 fuel strategy further reduces the sulfur con tent of distillate from 500 ppm

to 15 ppm while keeping the sulfur limits on residu al oils to 0.25 percent and 0.5 percent

for No. 4 and No. 6 oils, respectively. By lowerin g the distillate fuel sulfur limit from

500 ppm to 15 ppm we estimate an additional reducti on of 27,000 tons of SO 2 

# emissions

in MANE-VU from distillate combustion in 2018. Fig ure 4-2 displays the average

change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# calculated from CMAQ modeled concentrations betwee n the S1

scenario and the S2 scenario. The change reflects the predicted change in PM 2.5 

# due

solely to the change from 500 ppm to 15 ppm distill ate. Due to a high baseline fuel

sulfur level, the incremental change in PM 2.5 

# concentration is much smaller between 500

ppm and 15 ppm than the baseline to 500 ppm levels observed in the S1 scenario.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-4



# Figure 4-2. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to

S2 emission reductions, relative to S1 ( μ g/m 3 

# )

Table 4-4 and Table 4-5 display the additional heal th benefits that can be realized

from the S2 portion of the fuel strategy. Table 4- 6 indicates that almost 450 million

dollars in health benefits could be accrued with an S2 fuel sulfur strategy in MANE-VU.

An additional 28 million dollars in benefits could be found in the VISTAS and MWRPO

states.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-5



# Table 4-4. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulf ur limit.

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 68 3.5 0.8

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.11 0.01 0.002

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 103.9 5.6 1.2

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 18.99 1.06 0.22

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 107 8.7 1.4

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 188 15.2 2.4

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children, 6 to

18) 119 9.6 1.5

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 46.1 2.5 0.54

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 5.91 0.76 0.14

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 2.09 0.153 0.03

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 0.65 0.036 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1.12 0.072 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 1.33 0.065 0.012

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 3.83 0.249 0.04

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 1.92 0.144 0.02

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 0.91 0.067 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 0.49 0.035 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 2.66 0.21 0.042

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1175 94 14

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 165 13 2



# Table 4-5. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulf ur limit (millions of 2000$).

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 430 20 5.3

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.69 0.05 0.01

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.04 0.002 0.0005

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 1.25 0.07 0.01

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 0.02 0.001 0.0002

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 0.03 0.002 0.0004

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children, 6 to

18) 0.02 0.002 0.0002

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 15.55 0.83 0.18

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.002 0 0

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 0.03 0.002 0.0005

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 0.01 0.001 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 0.002 0.0003

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 0.01 0.001 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 0.08 0.005 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.04 0.003 0.0004

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 0.01 0.001 0.0002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 0.01 0 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.05 0.004 0.001

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.17 0.011 0.002

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.03 0.003 0.0004

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-6



# Table 4-6. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulf ur limit (millions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO



## Mortality 431 22 5

Cardiovascular Symptoms 1.38 0.08 0.02

Respiratory Symptoms 16 0.85 0.19



# To determine the full benefit of the fuel strategie s being considered relative to the

OTB/OTW baseline, we can look at the combined benef it of the S1 (500 ppm distillate

and 0.25/0.5 percent residual oil) strategy and the S2 (15 ppm distillate) strategy. Table

4-7 shows the total value of avoided incidences rel ative to OTB/OTW from a 15 ppm

fuel sulfur limit program. The CMAQ and BenMAP mod eling results suggest that this

fuel program could result in 3.8 billion dollars in benefits for MANE-VU and an

additional 300 million dollars in benefits for the VISTAS and MWRPO states.

Table 4-7. Total value of avoided incidences attrib uted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to OTB/OTW (mil lions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO



## Mortality 3665 225 60

Cardiovascular Symptoms 12 1 0

Respiratory Symptoms 133 9 2



# 4.2. Best Available Retrofit Program (BART)

To assess the impacts of the implementation of the BART provisions of the

Regional Haze Rule, we included estimated reduction s anticipated for 14 BART-eligible

facilities in MANE-VU in the 2018 CMAQ modeling ana lysis. An initial survey of state

staff indicated that these 14 units would possibly be controlled under BART alone.

These states provided potential control technologie s and levels of control, which were in

turn incorporated into the 2018 emission inventory projections. The survey approach can

be found in NESCAUM (2007b). Figure 4-3 displays t he locations of the modeled

BART sources and estimated SO 2 

# reductions expected in 2018.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-7



# Figure 4-3. Potential reductions from BART-eligible sources in the

MANE-VU region (tons)

We applied the SO 2 

# reductions at these 14 facilities relative to the 2018

OTB/OTW emissions inventory. Figure 4-4 shows the average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# concentrations within the modeling domain used to c alculate the health benefits.

Figure 4-4. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to

BART emission reductions ( μ g/m 3 

# )

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-8



# Table 4-8 and Table 4-9 display the avoided inciden ces and value benefit

predicted from BenMAP. As expected, the majority o f the benefits are found in MANEVU as the emissions reductions occur in these state s. Based on our BART analysis, we

expect 38,000 tons of SO 2 

# to be reduced in MANE-VU at the 14 sources expecte d to

control based on BART alone. Table 4-8 and Table 4 -10 show that the reductions in SO 2



# at these 14 sources can result in 200 avoided incid ences in mortality and a total monetary

benefit of 1.8 billion dollars in 2018.

Comparing across RPOs, we see that reductions at BA RT sources in the MANEVU region could result in benefits within other RPO s. Reducing 38,000 tons of SO 2 

# at

five MANE-VU states could give an added benefit of 200 million dollars in VISTAS

states and 80 million dollars in MWRPO states in 20 18.

Table 4-8. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART.

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 209 30.4 11.6

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.315 0.068 0.026

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 308 47.5 17.3

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 61.7 9.05 3

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 343.6 73.46 19.2

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 601.4 128.56 33.6

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 380.4 81.33 21.2

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 137.37 20.54 7.49

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 19.18 6.38 1.99

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 6.83 1.3 0.41

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 2.11 0.31 0.1

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 3.65 0.61 0.18

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 4.19 0.55 0.16

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 12.5 2.12 0.62

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 6.29 1.22 0.27

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 2.97 0.58 0.17

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 1.59 0.3 0.09

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 8.7 1.76 0.58

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 3694 788.3 202.5

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 531 114 30

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-9



# Table 4-9. Value of avoided incidences attributed t o

reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART (millions of 2000$).

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1319 191 73

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1.98 0.431 0.163

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.12 0.018 0.006

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 4.07 0.596 0.19

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 0.05 0.011 0.003

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 0.09 0.02 0.005

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 0.06 0.013 0.003

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 46 6.9 2.5

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.005 0.002 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 0.105 0.02 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 0.03 0.005 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.09 0.016 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 0.03 0.004 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 0.27 0.045 0.013

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.14 0.028 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 0.04 0.008 0.002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 0.02 0.003 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.16 0.031 0.01

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.52 0.094 0.026

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.099 0.021 0.006



# Table 4-10. Total Value of avoided incidences attri buted

to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to BART (millions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO



## Mortality 1321 192 73

Cardiovascular Symptoms 4.5 0.7 0.2

Respiratory Symptoms 48 7 3



# CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggest that approximately 1.8 billion dollars of

benefits from avoided adverse health outcomes could be realized from BART in MANEVU. Although all the BART sources we modeled were located in MANE-VU, emission

reductions at these units resulted in an estimated 270 million dollars of health benefit in

the VISTAS and MWRPO states.



# 4.3. 167 EGU Strategy

The MANE-VU states have recognized that SO 2 

# emissions from power plants are

the single largest contributing sector to the visib ility impairment experienced in northeast

Class I areas. The SO 2 

# emissions from power plants continue to dominate t he inventory.

Sulfate formed through atmospheric processes from S O 2 

# emissions are responsible for

over half the mass and approximately 70-80 percent of the extinction on the worst

visibility days (NESCAUM, 2006a,b). In order to en sure that EGU controls are targeted

at those EGUs with the greatest impact on visibilit y in MANE-VU, a modeling analysis

was conducted to determine which sources those were . A list of 167 EGU stacks was

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-10



# identified (MANE-VU, 2007) that includes the 100 la rgest impacts at each MANE-VU

Class I site during 2002. MANE-VU is currently ask ing for 90 percent control on all

units emitting from those stacks by 2018 as part of consultations within MANE-VU and

with other RPOs.

The 167 EGU strategy, if implemented, could lead to large reductions in SO 2



# emissions due to installation of stack control tech nologies such as SO 2 

# scrubbers. To

determine the possible health benefits of this EGU control program, we modeled 2018

emissions for the 167 EGUs in the Northeast, Southe ast, and Midwest at levels equal to

10 percent of their 2002 emissions. We used CMAQ t o model sulfate concentrations in

2018 after implementation of this control program a nd converted sulfate concentrations

to PM 2.5 

# concentrations. Figure 4-5 displays the average c hange in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# seen

between the OTB/OTW baseline and the EGU stack cont rol program.

Figure 4-5. Average change in 24-hr PM 2.5 

# due to 167 EGU emission reductions

Figure 4-5 shows that significant reductions of PM 2.5 

# are predicted for the

MANE-VU region. Table 4-12 describes the number and value of avoided incidences

estimated from BenMAP based on this reduction in PM 2.5 

# . Of the four regional haze

programs discussed, we see the largest benefit attr ibuted to the 167 EGU stack control

program.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-11



# Table 4-11. Avoided incidences attributed to reduce d PM 2.5 

# from 167 EGU strategy.

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 994 323 334

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1.52 0.67 0.74

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1424 450 485

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 301 96 51

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 1699 732 324

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 2976 1282 568

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 1881 810 359

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 641 203.6 213

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 97 63.3 32

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 34.3 14.2 7.1

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 10.5 3.4 1.7

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 18.1 6.73 3.2

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 20.5 5.56 2.8

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 62.3 23.27 11.1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 31.03 12.62 4.9

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 14.87 6.33 3.1

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 7.85 3.14 1.6

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 43.72 19.18 10.1

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 18392 7895 3474

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 2610 1128 490



# Table 4-12. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced

PM 2.5 

# due to 167 EGU strategy (millions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 6261 2035 2107

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 9.61 4.23 4.64

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.53 0.17 0.18

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and ol der) 19.84 6.33 3.36

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic chil dren, 6 to 18) 0.27 0.11 0.05

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic chi ldren, 6 to 18) 0.46 0.2 0.09

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath ( asthmatic children,

6 to 18) 0.29 0.13 0.06

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 216.2 68.7 71.93

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.03 0.02 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adul ts 65 years and older) 0.53 0.22 0.11

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years an d older) 0.16 0.05 0.03

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.47 0.17 0.08

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 ye ars) 0.16 0.04 0.02

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 65 years and older) 1.33 0.49 0.24

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includ ing Myocardial Infarction

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.71 0.29 0.11

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 6 5 years and older) 0.2 0.08 0.04

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 1 8-64 years) 0.08 0.03 0.02

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.79 0.34 0.18

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2.6 0.9 0.41

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.49 0.21 0.09



# The CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggests that 6.5 bill ion dollars in benefit

could be realized in MANE-VU in 2018 by adopting ap propriate controls at 167 EGU

stacks (Table 4-13). Because this control strategy extends to sources in the VISTAS and

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-12



# MWRPO states, we see significant benefits to popula tions within those states. Due to

controls at these sources, we estimate 2.1 billion dollars in benefits for the VISTAS states

and 2.2 billion dollars in benefits for the MWRPO s tates. The majority of this estimate

lies in the number of avoided mortalities as we est imate this program to reduce premature

mortality by 1,600 cases across the three RPOs.

Table 4-13. Total value of avoided incidences attri buted to reduced

PM 2.5 

# due to 167 EGU strategy (millions of 2000$).

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO



## Mortality 6271 2040 2112

Cardiovascular Symptoms 22 7 4

Respiratory Symptoms 222 71 73



# 4.4. Summary of Regional Haze Program Benefits

While regional haze programs are designed to improv e visibility at Class I areas,

significant health benefits can also occur in MANE- VU with improved air quality. Table

4-14 displays the mean value of reduced adverse hea lth endpoints in MANE-VU for the

four haze programs.

Table 4-14. Total value of avoided incidences attr ibuted to reduced PM 2.5 

# due to

regional haze programs in MANE-VU (millions of 2000 $).

Endpoint S1 S2* BART EGU 4-Program Total

Mortality 3234 431 1321 6271 11246



# Cardiovascular Symptoms 11 1 4 22 38



# Respiratory Symptoms 117 16 48 222 401

* Avoided incidences are relative to S1.



# Of the four programs, we estimate the 167 EGU strat egy to have the greatest

benefits for the region. This program focuses on E GUs that are the largest uncontrolled

emitters of SO 2 

# and considerable improvement in air quality could result with their

control. The first phase of a sulfur-in-fuels limi tation (S1) leads to almost 3.4 billion

dollars of health benefit in MANE-VU. Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm

(S2) could lead to an additional 431 million dollar s in benefit, bringing the total benefit

relative to OTB/OTW to 3.7 billion dollars of benef it. The BART estimate is based on

controls at 14 units likely to be controlled under BART alone and with no other program

that would satisfy the BART requirement. CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggest that

controls at these units could lead to 1.4 billion d ollars of benefit in MANE-VU.

Looking across all regional haze programs, we estim ate a four program total of

11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. We base this benefits

estimate on a 15 ppm fuel sulfur control, BART cont rols on 14 units in MANE-VU, and

stack controls at 167 EGUs in the East, Southeast, and Midwest. Additionally, 4.9 billion

dollars of health benefit are estimated for the sta tes within VISTAS and MWRPO in 2018

due to implementation of these haze control strateg ies.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-1



# 5. BENEFITS ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED OZONE

NAAQS

5.1. Overview and Input Assumptions

To assess the benefits of alternative ozone standar ds, NESCAUM estimated the

magnitude and value of avoided adverse health endpo ints that would result in attaining a

range of proposed ozone primary NAAQS in 2018. The purpose of this benefits analysis

is to estimate what additional benefits can be accr ued by reducing ozone levels to various

attainment levels beyond levels reached by a suite of actual and hypothetical control

programs – in this case the “Beyond On The Way” (BO TW) programs and the “Clean

Air Interstate Rule Plus” (CAIR+) program – that st ates in the Ozone Transport Region

(OTR) have considered in planning efforts to attain the current 8-hour ozone NAAQS.

Future and current year ozone modeling was performe d by the New Hampshire

Department of Environmental Services using the Cali fornia Photochemical Grid Model

(CALGRID). The model output reflects expected hour ly ozone concentrations in 2018

after implementing a suite of assumed BOTW control strategies in the OTR and the

CAIR+ program in the eastern United States. The us e of this hypothetical control

scenario is meant to create a base case in which th e modeled region meets or is close to

meeting the current ozone NAAQS. Use of projected o zone levels in 2018 in a scenario

attaining the current 8-hour NAAQS (0.08 ppm) avoid s attributing to a revised primary

ozone NAAQS that portion of monetized health benefi ts that would occur in any event

from meeting the current NAAQS. The hypothetical m easures incorporated in the base

case, however, are not necessarily the actual measu res to be adopted by individual states

for attaining the present ozone NAAQS.

Using the CALGRID modeled concentrations (CALGRID m odeling domain

described in Section 2.1) that have included all BO TW measures and CAIR+ as our

baseline, we estimated the benefits of attaining th ree alternative 8-hour standards, 60 ppb,

70 ppb, and 75 ppb (4 th 

# highest daily 8-hour max) in the OTR using the U.S

. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environme ntal Benefits Modeling and

Analysis Program (BenMAP). BenMAP can currently ro ll back monitored ozone data to

user specified standards and calculate the health b enefits of the rollback. To take

advantage of BenMAP’s rollback capabilities, we ref ormatted the CALGRID model

output data to a monitor format that the tool would accept. This was done by first

generating a file that contained modeled values for all the monitors in our domain for the

period of May 15 through September 15. Each monito r’s hourly modeled values were

defined as the 2018 CALGRID modeled concentrations for the grid cell in which the

monitor resides. In addition to monitors that alre ady existed, we supplied modeling data

for grid cells with more than 25,000 people not con taining a monitor. This was done by

adding a new monitor at the center of the grid cell

.

In our comparisons of 2002 CALGRID modeled data and 2002 monitored data,

we found that the model generally underestimated mo nitored ozone concentrations. We

therefore expect that our approach of using solely modeling data to represent

concentrations in 2018 will give a conservative est imate of the benefits of attainment

(i.e., underestimate the monetized health benefits) . Furthermore, we do not include

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-2



# consideration of health benefits from reductions in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 

# ) that

may occur as a result of reductions in ozone precur sors.

The 2018 CALGRID modeling data was rolled back to e ach of the various health

standards using BenMAP’s quadratic rollback method. The quadratic rollback method is

based on an algorithm developed by Horst and Duff ( 1995), where large values are

reduced proportionally more than small values while just achieving the standard. We set

a background level of 40 ppb, which specifies the p ortion of the ozone concentration that

was not be affected by the rollback. Our assumed o zone background is higher than the

policy relevant background used by the EPA of 0.015 to 0.035 ppm (72 FR 37857), thus

is conservative and will tend to underestimate mone tized health benefits.

BenMAP’s rollback method occurs in two steps. Firs t, it calculates each

monitor’s 4 th 

# highest 8-hr max value and determines whether the monitor is in or out of

attainment of the specified standard. It then deve lops a list of target metric values for

each monitor by rolling back each day’s 8-hr max va lue using the quadratic method to

meet the attainment standard. In the second step, BenMAP rolls back the hourly values

at each monitor on each day to arrive to a set of h ourly concentrations that meet the target

metric value calculated in the first step. The ove rall method therefore gives new hourly

values at each monitor that place it in attainment of the defined standard.

After rolling back the monitor values to the define d attainment standard, the

monitor concentrations were interpolated to a 12 km grid in BenMAP using the Voronoi

Neighbor Averaging algorithm. We then calculated t he benefits of the rollback within

each grid cell and aggregated these benefits across each state within the domain.

The health benefits of the model data rollback are calculated by applying

concentration response functions. These functions, derived from published

epidemiological studies, calculate the health respo nse from a change in ozone

concentration, taking into account the population w ithin each grid cell and the baseline

incidence rate. For our analysis, we chose five st udies on ozone mortality and 14 studies

on respiratory-based adverse health endpoints, incl uding hospital admissions due to

respiratory disease, emergency room visits due to a sthma, school absence days, and

decreased worker productivity. Using the reduced i ncidences attributed to improved air

quality, BenMAP calculates the value of reduction u sing a variety of Cost of Illness

(COI) and Willingness to Pay (WTP) valuation functi ons available within BenMAP.

Table 2-1 in Section 2.8.1 describes the studies we used in this rollback analysis.



# 5.2. Results

Applying the health impact and valuation functions to estimated changes in ozone

concentrations gave estimates in reductions in adve rse health effects and the associated

value of this reduction. Tables Table 5-1 through Table 5-3 show the estimated

reductions in incidences attributed to attaining th ree ozone standards beyond

implementation of CAIR+ and BOTW measures for the D istrict of Columbia and each

state belonging to the Ozone Transport Region. Tab le 5-4 through Table 5-6 show

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-3



# estimated value of these reductions. 3 

# For incidence results, we have presented each non

mortality health endpoint separately (with a combin ed incidence for respiratory hospital

admissions in the elderly and children under 2 year s of age) while mortality is shown as

the range of the five mortality studies used. In t he valuation tables, we have presented

the combined value of all non-mortality health endp oints and the range of estimates from

the five mortality studies used in this analysis.

Table 5-1. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences

State ER Visits,

Asthma Hospital Admissions, All

Respiratory Endpoints, >64

Years and <2 Years School Loss

Days Loss of Income Due to

Decreased Worker

Productivity Mortality

(Range of Five

Studies)

CT 9.3

79.7

21,933 103,880

3.8 - 19.3

DE 2.5

25.2

6,316 69,363

1.1 - 5.8

DC 2.3

20.7

4,145 11,509

1.1 - 5.2

ME 0.2

3.2

602 25,807

0.2 - 0.8

MD 23.9

234.4

55,316 337,687

10.6 - 47.3

MA 9.9

84.8

24,077 117,724

3.8 - 21.6

NH 0.8

6.9

1,99 3 17,097

0.3 - 1.6

NJ 33.0

290.0

80,844 358,430

14.1 - 73.3

NY 36.3

309.2

89,418 336,746

13.8 - 78.1

PA 39.6

396.5

89,286 921,220

24.4 - 104.3

RI 1.9

16.8

4,611 27,456

0.8 - 4.4

VT 0.0

0.1

20 444

0 - 0

VA 23.9

235.0

56,209 445,286

10 - 45

OTR Total 183.5

1,702.5

434,770 2,772,649

84 - 406.7



# Table 5-2. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences

State ER Visits,

Asthma Hospital Admissions, All

Respiratory Endpoints, >64

Years and <2 Years School Loss

Days Loss of Income Due to

Decreased Worker

Productivity Mortality (Range

of Five Studies)

CT 5.3

46.1

12,982 54,523

2 - 11.5

DE 1.4

13.9

3,552 34,442

0.6 - 3.2

DC 1.6

14.9

3,045 7,821

0.8 - 3.9

ME 0.0

0.4

70 3,919

0 - 0.1

MD 15.4

157.0

37,628 200,285

6.7 - 32.1

MA 2.1

19.0

5,125 27,980

0.8 - 4.9

NH 0.1

0.8

209 2,222

0 - 0.2

NJ 18.8

171.8

48,642 202,596

7.9 - 44.4

NY 13.1

117.4

34,045 108,546

5 - 29.6

PA 22.4

228.4

53,610 480,424

13.2 - 62.6

RI 0.7

6.8

1,877 11,201

0.3 - 1.8

VT -

-

- -

0 - 0

VA 13.8

137.4

33,568 219,802

5.3 - 25.5

OTR Total 94.8

913.8

234,352 1,353,762

42.7 - 219.7

3 

## The entry for Virginia in each of the tables is fo r the entire state, thus includes incidences and mo netized

benefits beyond the DC metropolitan portion of Virg inia within the Ozone Transport Region.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-4



# Table 5-3. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences

State ER Visits,

Asthma Hospital Admissions, All

Respiratory Endpoints, >64

Years and <2 Years School Loss

Days Loss of Income Due to

Decreased Worker

Productivity Mortality (Range

of Five Studies)

CT 3.4

29.2

8,251 33,192

1.3 - 7.2

DE 0.8

7.8

2,031 18,085

0.3 - 1.8

DC 1.4

12.4

2,557 6,425

0.6 - 3.2

ME 0.0

0.0

1 25

0 - 0

MD 11.8

120.7

29,178 142,763

5 - 24.7

MA 0.2

2.1

572 3,772

0.1 - 0.6

NH 0.0

0.2

52 540

0 - 0

NJ 12.3

113.1

32,303 134,709

5.1 - 29.5

NY 7.1

64.2

18,735 53,422

2.7 - 16.2

PA 14.8

150.1

35,947 300,149

8.6 - 41.7

RI 0.2

1.7

469 3,710

0.1 - 0.5

VT -

-

- -

0 - 0

VA 9.7

94.8

23,469 134,217

3.5 - 16.9

OTR Total 62

596

153,565 831,008

27.3 - 142.4



# Table 5-4. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidenc es

State Total Value of Avoided Respiratory EndpointsHospital Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years,

Asthma ER Visits, School Loss Days, Decreased

Worker Productivity (Millions of 2000$) Mortality- Range of Five

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 2.78 23.99 - 121.97

DE 0.85 7.18 - 36.42

DC 0.60 7.16 - 33.07

ME 0.12 1.21 - 5.21

MD 7.44 66.89 - 298.59

MA 3.00 23.89 - 136.18

NH 0.25 1.83 - 10.07

NJ 10.13 88.74 - 462.5

NY 10.89 86.8 - 492.55

PA 13.11 153.72 - 658.38

RI 0.59 5.3 - 27.74

VT 0.00 0.03 - 0.18

VA 7.55 62.89 - 283.66

OTR Total 57.30 529.62 - 2566.52

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-5



# Table 5-5. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidenc es

State Total Value of Avoided Respiratory EndpointsHospital Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years, Asthma

ER Visits, School Loss Days, Decreased Worker

Productivity (Millions of 2000$) Mortality- Range of Five

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 1.61 12.91 - 72.26

DE 0.47 3.67 - 20.38

DC 0.43 4.9 - 24.39

ME 0.01 0.15 - 0.67

MD 4.96 42 - 202.68

MA 0.65 5.36 - 30.7

NH 0.03 0.2 - 1.11

NJ 6.00 49.7 - 279.88

NY 4.10 31.45 - 186.69

PA 7.59 83.22 - 395.06

RI 0.24 2.03 - 11.34

VT 0.00 0 - 0

VA 4.38 33.37 - 160.99

OTR Total 30.48 268.96 - 1386.14



# Table 5-6. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidenc es

State Total Value of Avoided Respiratory Endpoints- Hospital

Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years, Asthma ER Visits

, School Loss Days, Decreased Worker Productivity (Mi llions

of 2000$) Mortality- Range of Five

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 1.02 8.08 - 45.73

DE 0.26 2.02 - 11.47

DC 0.36 4.02 - 20.48

ME 0.00 0 - 0.02

MD 3.80 31.6 - 155.93

MA 0.07 0.64 - 3.55

NH 0.01 0.05 - 0.27

NJ 3.96 32.47 - 186.15

NY 2.24 17.01 - 102.4

PA 5.00 53.99 - 263.19

RI 0.06 0.52 - 2.89

VT 0.00 0 - 0

VA 3.01 21.86 - 106.62

OTR Total 19.79 172.25 - 898.72



# The results above show that adopting an ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm (i.e., the

upper limit of EPA’s proposal) after CAIR+ could re sult in an estimated 27 to 142

avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR. When added to the

benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estim ate a monetary benefit of 192 to 918

million dollars over the 2018 ozone season. By con trast, adopting an ozone NAAQS of

0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the CASAC recom mended range), could result in 43 to

220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 20 18 ozone season. When added to

the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we e stimate an additional monetary

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-6



# benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyond the 0. 075 ppm standard (total benefit of 300

million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Final ly, adopting an ozone NAAQS at the

lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm , could result in an estimated

84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. Compared

to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling indicates t hat a NAAQS set at 0.060 ppm, could

net almost twice the monetary benefit with a benefi t of 394 million dollars to 1.7 billion

dollars beyond the 75 ppb standard (total benefit o f 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars after

CAIR+).

The BenMAP results indicate substantial benefits fr om revising the current ozone

NAAQS to within the CASAC range. Even in this rega rd, however, we believe the

benefit estimates are quite conservative and are li kely substantially higher, for the

following reasons:

• The rollback method uses unadjusted modeled 2018 oz one concentrations as

proxies for monitored data that likely underestimat e regional ozone levels, 4



# therefore the extent of actual ozone reductions in the Northeast in 2018 may be

greater than estimated in the rollback method.

• The ozone background level used of 0.040 ppm is hig her than EPA’s policy

relevant background of 0.015 to 0.035 ppm, so ozone reductions could occur to

lower levels than allowed in the rollback method em ployed here. Not

accounting for lower potential levels of ozone will reduce the estimated benefits

of a more stringent ozone NAAQS.

• The estimated benefits do not include consideration of additional reductions in

mortality and morbidity endpoints associated with r educed PM 2.5 

# due to NOx

reductions needed to meet a more stringent ozone NA AQS. The EPA’s

Regulatory Impact Analysis indicates these can be i n the billions of dollars,

thus substantially increasing the projected benefit s from a revised ozone

NAAQS.

• The estimated health benefits do not include potent ial benefits from reduced

volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Many VO Cs are air toxics and

can have health impacts apart from their contributi ons to ozone formation.

• The analysis covered the period May 15 through Sept ember 15, thus omitting

four weeks of the ozone season. In addition, there may be adverse health

impacts from ozone exposure during the non-ozone se ason, as elevated ozone

values in the 0.060 ppm range have been monitored i n portions of the domain

outside the assumed ozone season.

• BenMAP calculates school absences based on the assu mption that children are

in school during all of May, two weeks in June, one week in August, and all of

September. The estimated health benefits do not ac count for absences during

summer school sessions.

• The focus on the primary ozone NAAQS in this analys is does not include

benefits from non-health endpoints (i.e., welfare v alues), such as reduced losses

in the agriculture and forestry sectors due to lowe r regional ozone levels.

4 

## In general, the model tends to underestimate ozone levels in most grid cells of the model domain duri ng

the full ozone season. In a subset of high peak oz one days, however, the model can overpredict ozone

levels in some grid cells during some hours, but th ese incidents are spatially and temporally limited.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 6-1



# 6. CONCLUSIONS

In this report, we have used the CALGRID, CMAQ, and BenMAP models to

investigate the public health and monetary benefits of several potential emission control

programs under consideration by the OTC and MANE-VU states. These programs

include an electric generating unit control strateg y (“CAIR+”) for nitrogen oxides and

sulfur dioxide that increases the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule and

SO 2 

# emissions control strategies that would complement existing regulations to further

reduce fine particle concentrations and improve vis ibility under the Regional Haze Rule.

In addition, we performed an examination of the ben efits of achieving several different

options for a revised National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone (NAAQS

rollback).

Based on our benefits analysis for 2018, we found t hat PM 2.5 

# reductions

throughout the year due to CAIR+ could result in 23 0 avoided premature deaths in the

OTR states. Combined with reduced incidences of va rious morbidity endpoints, we

estimated a total PM 2.5 

# related benefit of 1.5 billion dollars annually. Using the same

modeling platform, we estimated that CAIR+ reductio ns in ozone during the May 1-

September 30 ozone season could lead to 24 to 76 av oided premature deaths in the OTR

states (range of five ozone mortality risk estimate s). When added to other projected

benefits due to reduced incidences of morbidity, we estimated a total ozone related

benefit of 170 to 500 million dollars. Overall, we estimate the CAIR+ program to result

in health benefits of 1.7 to 2.0 billion dollars in 2018 in the OTR due to reduced adverse

health endpoints from exposures to PM 2.5 

# and ozone. In states outside the OTR, we

estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 billion d ollars due to ozone reductions and 4.4

billion dollars due to PM 2.5 

# reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars. Across

the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we estimated a total benefit due to the CAIR+

program of 6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars.

We examined four potential control strategies aimed at reducing regional haze in

Class I areas of the MANE-VU region. Two programs u nder consideration include

limitations on the sulfur content of fuel oil. The S1 strategy would restrict the fuel sulfur

content of distillate sold in the region to no high er than 500 ppm whereas the S2 strategy

would restrict it to 15 ppm. Residual oil is rest ricted under both programs to 0.25 and

0.5 percent sulfur for No. 4 and No. 6 oil respecti vely. The third program is the Best

Available Retrofit Technology (BART) provisions of the Regional Haze Rule, and finally

controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (“167 EGU strategy”) that have the most significant

impacts on MANE-VU Class I areas are also considere d.

Of the four programs, the 167 EGU stack control pro gram leads to the greatest

benefit in the region, resulting in 6.5 billion dol lars of health benefits. The first phase of

a sulfur-in-fuels limitation (S1) leads to health b enefits of almost 3.4 billion dollars in

MANE-VU. Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm (S2) could lead to an

additional 431 million dollars in benefits, bringin g the total benefits to 3.7 billion dollars.

The BART estimate is based on controls at 14 units likely to be controlled under BART

alone and with no other program that would satisfy the BART requirement. CMAQ and

BenMAP modeling suggest that controls at these unit s could lead to 1.4 billion dollars of

benefits in MANE-VU. If all regional haze programs were implemented, we estimate a

total of 11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. Additionally, 4.9

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 6-2



# billion dollars of health benefits are estimated fo r the states within the Visibility

Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Sou theast (VISTAS) and the Midwest

Regional Planning Organization (MWRPO) in 2018 due to implementation of these haze

control strategies.

In the third step of this analysis, we estimated th e benefits of attaining three

alternative 8-hour ozone NAAQSs – 0.060 ppm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4 th 

# highest

daily 8-hour max) – in the Ozone Transport Region ( OTR) using BenMAP. The analysis

showed that there are significant monetized health benefits in going beyond a revised

ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 ppm, which is the upper

end of EPA’s range for its proposed ozone NAAQS rev ision (0.070 ppm – 0.075 ppm).

Rolling back to a NAAQS of 0.075 ppm after CAIR+ ga ve an estimate of 27 to 142

avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR. When added to the

benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estim ated monetary benefits of 192 to 918

million dollars over the 2018 ozone season. By con trast, adopting an ozone NAAQS of

0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the range recom mended by the Clean Air Scientific

Advisory Committee (CASAC)) increases the mortality benefits with an estimated 43 to

220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 20 18 ozone season. When added to

the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we e stimate an additional monetary

benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyond a 0.07 5 ppm standard (total benefit of 300

million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Final ly, adopting an ozone NAAQS at the

lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm , results in an increased

estimate of 84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in t he OTR over the 2018 ozone season.

Compared to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling in dicates that a NAAQS set at 0.060

ppm could net almost twice the monetary benefits by providing 394 million dollars to 1.7

billion dollars beyond a 75 ppb standard (total ben efit of 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars

after CAIR+).

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-1



# 7. REFERENCES

Abbey DE, Ostro BE, Peterson F, Burchette RJ. 1995 . Chronic Respiratory Symptoms

Associated with Estimated Long-Term Ambient Concent rations of Fine Particulates Less

Than 2.5 Microns in Aerodynamic Diameter (PM2.5) an d Other Air Pollutants. Journal

of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology

. 5(2):137-159.

Abt Associates. 2007. Environmental Benefits Mappi ng and Analysis Program

(BenMAP). BenMAP 2.4.8 US Version. Available at:

http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/download.html

Abt Associates. 2005. BenMAP Users Manual. Availa ble at:

http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/docs.html

Bell ML, McDermott A, Zeger SL, Samet JM, Dominici F. 2004. Ozone and Short-term

Mortality in 95 US Urban Communities, 1987-2000. JAMA. 292(19):2372-2378.

Bell ML, Dominici F, Samet JM. 2005. A Meta-Analy sis of Time-Series Studies of

Ozone and Mortality with Comparison to the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air

Pollution Study. Epidemiology. 16(4):436-445.

Brook R, Franklin B, Cacio W, et al. 2004. Air Pol lution and Cardiovascular Disease- A

Statement for Healthcare Professionals from the Exp ert Panel on Population and

Prevention Science of the American Heart Associatio n. Circulation. 109:2655 – 2671.

Burnett RT, Smith-Doiron M, Stieb B, Raizenne ME, B rook JR, Dales RE, Leech JA,

Cakmak S, Krewsik D. 2001. Association between Oz one and Hospitalization for Acute

Respiratory Diseases in Children Less than 2 Years of Age. American Journal of

Epidemiology. 153(5):444-452.

Byun DW and Ching JKS. 1999. Science Algorithms o f the EPA Models- 3.

Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ). USEPA. EP A/600/R-99/030.

Chen L, Jennison BL, Yang W, Omaye ST. 2000. Elem entary School Absenteeism and

Air Pollution. Inhalation Toxicology. 12:997-1016.

Cody RP, Weisel CP, Birnbaum G, Lioy PJ. 1992. Th e Effect of Ozone Associated with

Summertime Photochemical Smog on the Frequency of A sthma Visits to Hospital

Emergency Departments. Environmental Research. 58:184-194.

Crocker TD, Horst RL. 1981. Hours of Work, Labor Productivity, and Environmental

Conditions: A Case Study. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 63(3):361-368.

Davidson K, Hallberg A, McCubbin D, Hubbell B. 200 7. Analysis of PM 2.5 

# Using the

Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Journal of

Toxicology and Environmental Health. 70(3):332-346.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-2



# Dickie M. and Ulery VL. 2002. Parental Altruism and the Value of Avoiding Acute

Illness: Are Kids Worth More Than Parents? Working Paper. Department of

Economics, University of Central Florida.

Dockery DW, Cunningham J, Damokosh AI, Neas LM, Spe ngler JD, Koutrakis P, Ware

JH, Raizenne M, Speizer FE. 1996. Health Effects of Acid Aerosols on North American

Children - Respiratory Symptoms. Environmental Health Perspectives . Vol. 104(5): 500-

505.

Gilliland FD, Berhane K, Rappaport EB, Thomas DC, A vol E, Gauderman WJ, London

SJ, Margolis HG, McConnell R, Islam KT, Peters JM. 2001. The Effects of Ambient Air

Pollution on School Absenteeism Due to Respiratory Illness. Epidemiology. 12(1):43-

54.

Horst R, Duff M. 1995. Concentration Data Transfo rmation and the Quadratic Rollback

Methodology (Round 2, Revised). Unpublished memora ndum to R. Rodriguez, USEPA.

June 8.

Huang Y, Dominici F, Bell M. 2005. Bayesian Hierarc hical Distributed Lag Models for

Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortal ity. Environmetrics. 16:547-

562.

Hubbell BJ, Hallberg A, McCubbin DR, Post E. 2005. Health-Related Benefits of

Attaining the 8-Hr Ozone Standard. Environmental Health Perspectives. 113(1):73-82.

Ito K. 2003. Associations of Particulate Matter Com ponents with Daily Mortality and

Morbidity in Detroit, Michigan. In: Revised Analyse s of Time-Series Studies of Air

Pollution and Health. Health Effects Institute. pp. 143-156.

Ito K, De Leon SF, Lippmann M. 2005. Associations Between Ozone and Daily

Mortality: Analysis and Meta-Analysis. Epidemiology. 16(4):446-457.

Johnson PRS, Graham JJ. 2005. Fine Particulate Mat ter National Ambient Air Quality

Standards: Public Health Impact on Populations in Northeastern United States.

Environmental Health Perspectives. 113(9):1140-1147.

Levy J, Carrothers T, Tuomisot J, Hammitt J, Evans J. 2001. Assessing the Public

Health Benefits of Reduced Ozone Concentrations. Environmental Health Perspectives.

109:1215-1226.

Levy J, Chemerynski S, Sarnat J. 2005. Ozone Exposu re and Mortality: An Empiric

Bayes Metaregression Analysis. Epidemiology. 16(4):458-468.

Lippmann M, Ito K, Nádas A, Burnett R. 2000. Associ ation of Particulate Matter

Components with Daily Mortality and Morbidity in Ur ban Populations. Health Effects

Institute, Research Report. August No. 95, pp. 73-8 2.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-3



# MANE-VU. "Statement of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast V isibility Union (MANE-VU)

concerning a request for a course of action by stat es outside of MANE-VU toward

assuring reasonable progress." Adopted by the MANE- VU Board on June 20, 2007.

Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association. 2007a. Development of Emission

Projections for 2009, 2012, and 2018 for NonEGU Poi nt, Area, and Nonroad Source in

the MANE-VU Region. Available at:

http://www.marama.org/reports/MANEVU_Emission_Proje ctions_TSD_022807.pdf

Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association. 2007b. Comparison of CAIR and

CAIR Plus Proposal using the Integrated Planning Mo del (IPM). Prepared by ICF

Resources, LLC. Available at:

http://www.marama.org/visibility/CAIR/CAIR_CAIRPlus _FDReport_053007v1.pdf

Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck EG, Anderson EL. 1997. Air Pollution and Hospital

Admissions for Respiratory Causes in Minneapolis-St . Paul and Birmingham.

Epidemiology. 8(4):364-370.

Moolgavkar SH. 2000a. Air Pollution and Hospital Ad missions for Chronic Obstructive

Pulmonary Disease in Three Metropolitan Areas in th e United States. Inhalation

Toxicology . 12(Supplement 4): 75-90.

Moolgavkar, SH. 2000b. Air pollution and Hospital A dmissions for Diseases of the

Circulatory System in Three U.S. Metropolitan Areas

. Journal of the Air and Waste

Management Association . Vol. 50(7): 1199-206.

Moolgavkar SH. 2003. Air Pollution and Daily Deaths and Hospital Admissions in Los

Angeles and Cook Counties. In: Revised Analyses of Time-Series Studies of Air

Pollution and Health. Health Effects Institute. Bos ton, MA. pp. 183-198.

NESCAUM. 2006a. The Nature of the Fine Particle and Regional Haze Air Quality

Problems in the MANE-VU Region: A Conceptual Descr iption. Available at:

http://www.nescaum.org/documents/2006-1102-pm-conce ptual-model.pdf/

NESCAUM. 2006b. Contributions to Regional Haze in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

United States: Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility U nion (MANE-VU) Contribution

Assessment. Available at: http://www.nescaum.org/documents/contributions-toregional-haze-in-the-northeast-and-mid-atlantic--un ited-states/manevu_haze_contribution_asessment--2006-0831.pdf

NESCAUM. 2007a. 2018 Projections of Reasonable Pr ogress and Pollution Attribution

for Regional Haze. Under Review.

NESCAUM. 2007b. Five-Factor Analysis of BART-Eligi ble Sources. Survey of

Options for Conducting BART Determinations. Availa ble at:

http://www.nescaum.org/documents/bart-final-memo-06 -28-07.pdf

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-4



# Norris G, YoungPong SN, Koenig JQ, Larson TV, Shepp ard L, Stout JW. 1999. An

Association between Fine Particles and Asthma Emerg ency Department Visits for

Children in Seattle. Environmental Health Perspectives. 107(6):489-493.

Ostro BD. 1987. Air Pollution and Morbidity Revisit ed: A Specification Test. Journal of

Environmental Economics and Management . Vol. 14: 87-98.

Ostro B, Lipsett M, Mann J, Braxton-Owens H, White M. 2001. Air Pollution and

Exacerbation of Asthma in African-American Children in Los Angeles. Epidemiology

. Vol. 12(2): 200-8.

Peng RD, Dominici F, Pastor-Barriuso R, Zeger SL, S amet JM. 2005. Seasonal

Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 US C ities. American Journal of

Epidemiology. 161(6):585-594.

Peters A, Dockery DW, Muller JE, Mittleman MA. 200 1. Increased Particulate Air

Pollution and the Triggering of Myocardial Infarcti on. Circulation. 103(2):90-97.

Pope CA. 2004. Air Pollution and Health- Good News and Bad. New England Journal

of Medicine. 35(11):1132-1134.

Pope CA, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K, Thurston GD. 2002. Lung

Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Ex posure to Fine Particulate Air

Pollution. Journal of the American Medical Association. 287(9):1132-1141.

Russell MW, Huse DM, Drowns S, Hamel EC, Hartz SC. 1998. Direct Medical Costs of

Coronary Artery Disease in the United States. American Journal of Cardiol ogy. Vol.

81(9): 1110-5.

Schwartz J. 1994a. PM 10 

# , Ozone, and Hospital Admissions for the Elderly in

Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota. Archives of Environmental Health. 49(5):366-374.

Schwartz J. 1994b. Air Pollution and Hospital Adm issions for the Elderly in Detroit,

MI. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care M edicine. 150 (3):648-655.

Schwartz J. 1995. Short Term Fluctuations in Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions of

the Elderly for Respiratory Disease. Thorax. 50(5):531-538.

Schwartz J. 2000. Assessing Confounding, Effect M odification, and Thresholds in the

Association between Ambient Particles and Daily Dea ths. Environmental Health

Perspectives. 108(6):563-568.

Schwartz J, Neas LM. 2000. Fine Particles are Mor e Strongly Associated than Coarse

Particles with Acute Respiratory Health Effects in Schoolchildren. Epidemiology.

11(1):6-10.

## Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozo ne & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-5



# Sheppard L, Levy D, Norris G, Larson TV, Koenig JQ. 1999. Effects of Ambient Air

Pollution on Non-Elderly Asthma Hospital Admissions in Seattle, Washington, 1987-

1994. Epidemiology . Vol. 10(1): 23-30.

Sheppard L. 2003. Ambient Air Pollution and Non-Eld erly Asthma Hospital Admissions

in Seattle, Washington, 1987-1994. In: Revised Anal yses of Time-Series Studies of Air

Pollution and Health. Health Effects Institute. Bos ton, MA. May. pp. 227-230.

Smith DH, Malone DC, Lawson KA, Okamoto LJ, Battist a C, Saunders WB. 1997. A

National Estimate of the Economic Costs of Asthma. American Journal of Respiratory

and Critical Care Medicine . Vol. 156(no. 3 Pt.1): 787-93.

Stanford R, McLaughlin T, Okamoto LJ. 1999. The Cos t of Asthma in the Emergency

Department and Hospital. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care M edicine

. Vol. 160(1): 211-5.

Stieb DM, Burnett RT, Beveridge RC, Brook JR. 1996 . Association between Ozone and

Asthma Emergency Department Visits in Saint John, N ew Brunswick, Canada.

Environmental Health Perspectives. 140(12):1354-1360.

U.S. EPA. 2004. Air Quality Criteria for Particulat e Matter. EPA/600/P-99/002aF.

U.S. EPA. 2005. Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule.

EPA-452/R-05-002.

US EPA. 2007. Regulatory Impact Analysis of the P roposed Revisions to the National

Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ground-Level Ozon e. EPA-452/R-07-008.

Vedal S, Petkau J, White R, Blair J. 1998. Acute Ef fects of Ambient Inhalable Particles

in Asthmatic and Non-Asthmatic Children. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical

Care Medicine . Vol. 157(4): 1034-1043.

Viscusi WK, Magat WA, Huber J. 1991. Pricing Enviro nmental Health Risks - Survey

Assessments of Risk - Risk and Risk - Dollar Trade- Offs For Chronic Bronchitis. Journal

of Environmental Economics and Management . Vol. 21(1): 32-51.

Weisel CP, Cody RP, Lio PJ. 1995. Relationship Be tween Summertime Ambient Ozone

Levels and Emergency Department Visits for Asthma i n Central New Jersey.

Environmental Health Perspectives. 103(Suppl2):97-102.

Wittels EH, Hay JW, Gotto Jr. AM. 1990. Medical cos ts of coronary artery disease in the

United States. American Journal of Cardiol ogy. Vol. 65(7): 432-40.

Woodruff TJ, Grillo J, Schoendorf KC. 1997. The R elationship between Selected

Causes of Postneonatal Infant Mortality and Particu late Air Pollution in the United

States. Environmental Health Perspectives. 105(6):608-612.DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-1Appendix A:State Level Benefits for Regional Haze ProgramsTable A-1- Avoided incidences attributed to reducedPM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI)Endpoint CT DE DC ME MD MAMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)28 (8,49) 8 (2,14) 3 (1,6) 20 (6,35) 33 (9,57) 82 (22,141)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.04 (0.02,0.07)0.02(0.01,0.03)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.08 (0.03,0.14)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)44 (-10,99) 11 (-3,25) 3 (-1,8) 22 (-5,50) 50 (-11,110) 123 (-29,275)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)8 (2,15) 2 (0,3) 1 (0,1) 6 (1,11) 7 (2,12) 24 (6,41)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)49 (-18,239) 11 (-4,57) 4 (-1,18) 24 (-9,119) 51 (-19,252) 132 (-49,648)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 85 (16,154) 20 (4,36) 6 (1,11) 42 (8,76) 89 (17,162) 230 (44,417)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)54 (-1,108) 13 (0,26) 4 (0,8) 27 (-1,54) 57 (-1,114) 146 (-3,294)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)18.5 (0.5,36.5) 5.2 (0.1,10.3) 2 (0.1,3.9) 12.4 (0.3,24.4) 22.2 (0.6,43.8) 56 (1.6,110.3)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 2.6 (1.3,3.8) 1 (0.5,1.4) 0.3 (0.2,0.5) 1.3 (0.7,1.9) 4.4 (2.3,6.6) 6.8 (3.5,10.1)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.9 (0.2,1.7) 0.2 (0,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.6 (0.1,1.2)1 (0.2,1.8) 2.6 (0.5,4.7)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.3 (-0.6,1.2) 0.1 (-0.1,0.2) 0 (0,0.1) 0.2 (-0.5,0.9) 0.2 (-0.5,0.9) 0.8 (-1.8,3.4)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.5 (-0.3,1.3) 0.1 (-0.1,0.3) 0 (0,0.1) 0.4 (-0.2,1) 0.4 (-0.3,1.1) 1.4 (-0.8,3.6)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.6 (0.2,1) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 0.4(0.2,0.6) 1.7 (0.6,2.7)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)1.7 (1,2.4) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.1 (0.1,0.2) 1.2 (0.7,1.7) 1.5 (0.9,2.2) 4.8 (2.7,6.8)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.8 (0.4,1.2) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.6 (0.3,0.9) 0.9 (0.5,1.4) 2.4 (1.2,3.5)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.5) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 1.1 (0.5,1.8)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0 (0,0) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.2(0.1,0.4) 0.6 (0.2,1)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)1.2 (0.2,2.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.8 (0.1,1.5) 1.3 (0.2,2.4) 3.2 (0.6,5.9)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)495 (419,571) 126 (107,146) 49 (41,56) 302 (255,348) 567 (480,654)1436(1216,1656)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)75 (28,120) 18 (7,29) 5 (2,9) 38 (15,62) 80 (30,129) 197 (75,318)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-2Table A-2- Avoided incidences attributed to reducedPM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint NH NJ NY PA RI VTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)12 (3,21) 67 (18,116) 158 (43,273) 77 (21,132) 20 (5,34) 4 (1,7)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.11 (0.04,0.17) 0.27 (0.11,0.44) 0.11 (0.04,0.18) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0 (0,0.01)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)18 (-4,40) 103 (-24,229) 254 (-59,565) 94 (-22,209)27 (-6,60) 5 (-1,11)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)4 (1,6) 20 (5,35) 47 (12,83) 21 (5,36) 5 (1,9) 1 (0,2)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)18 (-7,91) 112 (-42,553) 275 (-103,1355) 102 (-38,501) 29 (-11,142) 5 (-2,24)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)32 (6,58) 197 (37,356) 482 (91,872) 178 (34,322) 50(10,91) 8 (2,15)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)20 (0,41) 124 (-2,251) 305 (-6,615) 113 (-2,227) 32(-1,64) 5 (0,11)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)8.7 (0.2,17.1) 45 (1.2,88.7) 109 (3,214.8) 43.6 (1.2,85.9) 12.1 (0.3,23.8) 2.7 (0.1,5.3)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)1 (0.5,1.5) 5.9 (3,8.8) 14.4 (7.4,21.5) 5.4 (2.7,8)1.5 (0.8,2.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.4)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.4 (0.1,0.7) 2.1 (0.4,3.9) 5.1 (0.9,9.3) 2.3 (0.4,4.3) 0.6 (0.1,1.1) 0.1 (0,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.1 (-0.3,0.5) 0.7 (-1.5,2.8) 1.6 (-3.5,6.8) 0.7 (-1.6,3.1) 0.2 (-0.4,0.8) 0 (-0.1,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.2 (-0.1,0.5) 1.2 (-0.7,3) 2.8 (-1.6,7.2) 1.2 (-0.7,3.2) 0.3 (-0.2,0.8) 0.1 (0,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.2 (0.1,0.4) 1.4 (0.5,2.3) 3.4 (1.3,5.6) 1.3 (0.5,2.1) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.7 (0.4,1) 4 (2.3,5.7) 9.5 (5.4,13.5) 4.3 (2.5,6.1) 1.1 (0.6,1.5) 0.2 (0.1,0.3)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.4 (0.2,0.6) 2 (1,3) 4.7 (2.5,7) 1.9 (1,2.9) 0.5 (0.3,0.8) 0.1 (0.1,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.9 (0.4,1.5) 2.2 (0.9,3.5) 1 (0.4,1.6) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.1 (0,0.2) 0.5 (0.2,0.8) 1.2 (0.4,2) 0.5 (0.2,0.8)0.1 (0,0.2) 0 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.5 (0.1,0.8) 2.7 (0.5,4.9) 6.4 (1.2,11.7) 3 (0.5,5.4) 0.8 (0.1,1.4) 0.2 (0,0.3)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)212 (180,245)1217(1031,1404)2930(2481,3379)1097(929,1266)304 (257,350) 60 (50,69)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)29 (11,47) 175 (67,283) 422 (161,682) 157 (60,254)42 (16,68) 7 (3,12)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-3Table A-3- Avoided incidences attributed to reducedPM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1 (0.3,1.7) 3.2 (0.9,5.5) 1.3 (0.4,2.3) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 7.7 (2.1,13.3)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1.3 (-0.3,2.9) 6.4 (-1.5,14.2) 1.8 (-0.4,4.1) 0.3 (-0.1,0.6) 12.1 (-2.8,27)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.3 (0.1,0.6) 1.1 (0.3,2) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.1)2.5 (0.6,4.3)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)2.3 (-0.9,11.4) 11.6 (-4.3,57.2) 2.6 (-1,13) 0.5 (-0.2,2.2) 21.1 (-7.9,103.9)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)4 (0.8,7.3) 20.3 (3.9,36.7) 4.6 (0.9,8.3) 0.8 (0.2,1.4) 36.9 (7,66.7)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)2.6 (-0.1,5.2) 12.8 (-0.3,25.9) 2.9 (-0.1,5.9) 0.5(0,1) 23.3 (-0.5,47.1)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.6 (0,1.1) 2.4 (0.1,4.8) 0.8 (0,1.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 5(0.1,9.9)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 1.01 (0.52,1.51) 0.23 (0.12,0.34) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 1.81 (0.92,2.7)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.15 (0.03,0.27) 0.05 (0.01,0.09)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.36 (0.06,0.66)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.04 (-0.08,0.15) 0.01 (-0.03,0.05) 0 (0,0.01) 0.09 (-0.19,0.36)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0 (0,0.01) 0.17 (-0.1,0.44)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0 (0,0.01) 0.15 (0.06,0.25)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.25 (0.14,0.35) 0.08 (0.05,0.12)0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.59 (0.34,0.84)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.17 (0.09,0.25) 0.05 (0.02,0.07)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.33 (0.17,0.48)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.02 (0.01,0.04)0 (0,0.01) 0.16 (0.07,0.25)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.01,0.07) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) 0.08 (0.03,0.13)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.06 (0.01,0.11) 0.2 (0.04,0.37) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.49 (0.09,0.9)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)24 (20,28) 119 (101,137) 28 (24,33) 4 (4,5) 219 (185,253)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)4 (1,6) 18 (7,29) 4 (2,7) 1 (0,1) 32 (12,52)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-4Table A-4- Avoided incidences attributed to reducedPM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)3.2 (0.9,5.5) 1.6 (0.4,2.7) 12.3 (3.4,21.2) 1.7 (0.5,2.9)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0.01) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)4.1 (-1,9.2) 2.1 (-0.5,4.6) 21 (-4.9,46.8) 1.8 (-0.4,3.9)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1.1 (0.3,1.9) 0.5 (0.1,0.8) 3.4 (0.8,5.9) 0.4 (0.1,0.6)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)7.6 (-2.8,37.5) 3.5 (-1.3,17.3) 27.4 (-10.2,135) 2.1 (-0.8,10.3)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)13.3 (2.5,24.1) 6.2 (1.2,11.1) 48 (9.1,86.8) 3.7 (0.7,6.6)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)8.4 (-0.2,17) 3.9 (-0.1,7.9) 30.3 (-0.6,61.3) 2.3 (0,4.7)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)1.9 (0.1,3.7) 0.9 (0,1.8) 9.4 (0.3,18.5) 0.9 (0,1.8)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.66 (0.34,0.99) 0.3 (0.15,0.45) 2.4 (1.22,3.58) 0.18 (0.09,0.27)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.16 (0.03,0.29) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.47 (0.08,0.86)0.06 (0.01,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.04 (-0.08,0.16) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.11 (-0.25,0.47) 0.01 (-0.03,0.06)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.22 (-0.13,0.57) 0.03 (-0.02,0.07)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.21 (0.08,0.34)0.02 (0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.26 (0.15,0.37) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.77 (0.44,1.1) 0.09 (0.05,0.13)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.14 (0.07,0.2) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.47 (0.24,0.7) 0.04 (0.02,0.06)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.21 (0.09,0.32)0.02 (0.01,0.04)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.03 (0.01,0.06) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.12 (0.04,0.19)0.01 (0,0.02)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.22 (0.04,0.39) 0.1 (0.02,0.18) 0.64 (0.12,1.16) 0.08 (0.01,0.14)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)82 (69,95) 38 (32,44) 310 (262,358) 24 (21,28)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)12 (5,19) 5 (2,9) 43 (16,69) 3 (1,5)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-5Table A-5- Avoided incidences attributed to reducedPM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1 (0.3,1.8) 1.2 (0.3,2) 1.1 (0.3,1.9) 5.3 (1.4,9.1)0.2 (0,0.3)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1.7 (-0.4,3.8) 1.9 (-0.4,4.2) 1.7 (-0.4,3.9) 7.3 (-1.7,16.4) 0.2 (-0.1,0.5)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.25 (0.06,0.44) 0.35 (0.09,0.61) 0.32 (0.08,0.56)1.54 (0.38,2.7) 0.03 (0.01,0.05)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1.7 (-0.6,8.5) 2.4 (-0.9,11.9) 2.1 (-0.8,10.3) 9.4(-3.5,46.5) 0.2 (-0.1,0.9)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)3 (0.57,5.43) 4.23 (0.8,7.66) 3.67 (0.7,6.64) 16.51(3.14,29.89) 0.33 (0.06,0.59)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1.9 (-0.04,3.84) 2.68 (-0.05,5.41) 2.32 (-0.05,4.69) 10.45 (-0.21,21.1) 0.21 (0,0.42)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.7 (0.02,1.38) 0.78 (0.02,1.54) 0.75 (0.02,1.48) 3.27 (0.09,6.45) 0.11 (0,0.21)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.18 (0.09,0.26) 0.25 (0.13,0.37) 0.22 (0.11,0.33)0.98 (0.5,1.46) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.05 (0.01,0.08) 0.04 (0.01,0.08)0.21 (0.04,0.38) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.01 (-0.02,0.03) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.01 (-0.02,0.04) 0.05 (-0.11,0.21) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.02 (-0.01,0.04) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.09 (-0.05,0.24) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.08 (0.03,0.13) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.05 (0.03,0.07) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.07 (0.04,0.09) 0.32 (0.18,0.46) 0.01 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.03 (0.02,0.04)0.14 (0.07,0.2) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.09 (0.04,0.14) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.02,0.07) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.07 (0.01,0.12) 0.06 (0.01,0.11)0.3 (0.05,0.54) 0.01 (0,0.01)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)18 (15,21) 25 (21,28) 22 (19,26) 101 (85,116) 2 (2,2)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)3 (1,4) 4 (1,6) 3 (1,5) 15 (6,24) 0.3 (0.1,0.5)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-6Table A-6- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointCT DE DC MEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)178178000(13654000,549219000)51668000(3960000,159262000)20542000(1574000,63319000)126771000(9716000,390761000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 276000 (23000,811000) 100000 (8000,294000) 45000 (4000,131000) 115000 (10000,339000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 16500 (-3800,37000) 4200 (-1000,9400) 1300 (-300,2900) 8400 (-1900,18600)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 556400 (137000,974200) 108400 (26800,189600) 39900 (9800,69900) 396800 (98000,693100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)7580 (-2820,37190) 1790 (-670,8810) 570 (-210,2780) 3770 (-1400,18470)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)13270 (2510,24310) 3140 (590,5760) 990 (190,1820) 6590(1250,12080)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)8390 (-170,17080) 1990 (-40,4040) 630 (-10,1280) 4170(-80,8480)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 6257500 (115600,29528700) 1760300 (32500,8306200) 664400 (12300,3135300) 4183400 (77400,19738700)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)710 (340,1130) 270 (130,430) 90 (40,140) 360 (170,570)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)14600 (2600,26600) 3600 (600,6500) 1400 (200,2600) 9800 (1700,17800)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)4500 (-9900,18900) 900 (-1900,3600) 300 (-700,1400) 3200 (-6900,13200)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)12700 (-7400,32800) 2900 (-1700,7500) 1100 (-600,2800) 9500 (-5500,24600)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 4700 (1800,7700) 700 (300,1200) 200 (100,400) 2700(1000,4300)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 36600 (20900,52200) 8200 (4700,11700) 3100 (1800,4500) 25900 (14800,37000)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 19000(9900,28200) 5000 (2600,7400) 1800 (900,2600) 13400 (7000,19900)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)5400 (2300,8400) 1400 (600,2200) 500 (200,800) 3900 (1700,6100)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)2300 (800,3800) 600 (200,1000) 200 (100,300) 1600 (600,2700)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)21700 (4000,39400) 5600 (1000,10300) 2300 (400,4100) 14400 (2600,26200)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 76200 (64500,87900) 16500 (14000,19000) 7200 (6100,8300) 33300 (28200,38300)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 13900 (5300,22700) 3300 (1300,5400) 1000 (400,1600) 7100(2700,11600)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-7Table A-7- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointMDMANHNJMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)206915000(15856000,637797000)514585000(39438000,1586164000)77310000(5925000,238301000)423199000(32431000,1304473000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 422000 (36000,1239000) 534000 (45000,1570000) 76000 (6000,222000) 682000 (58000,2005000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 18500 (-4300,41400) 46200 (-10700,103100) 6800 (-1600,15200) 38400(-8900,85900)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 440200 (108400,771000) 1565200 (386700,2734700) 235400 (58000,412000) 1312900 (323400,2298500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)7990 (-2980,39200) 20560 (-7670,100830) 2880 (-1070,14130) 17540 (-6540,86070)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)13980 (2650,25620) 36010 (6810,65970) 5040 (950,9240)30710 (5810,56260)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)8840 (-180,18000) 22770 (-450,46320) 3190 (-60,6490) 19420 (-390,39520)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 7497700 (138500,35383900)18908100(349800,89214400) 2932100 (54200,13836100)15193900(280800,71701000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)1230 (590,1970) 1890 (910,3020) 270 (130,430) 1650 (800,2640)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)14800 (2600,26900) 39400 (6900,71800) 5500 (1000,10000) 33100 (5800,60400)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)3500 (-7600,14500) 12500 (-27400,52200) 1800 (-3900,7400) 10400 (-22800,43700)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)11400 (-6600,29500) 36600 (-21200,94400) 5200 (-3000,13500) 30300 (-17500,78000)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 3100 (1200,5000) 13200 (5100,21200) 1900 (700,3100) 11300 (4300,18200)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 33000 (18900,47100) 101900 (58300,145400) 14400 (8300,20600) 85000 (48600,121300)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 21000(10900,31100) 54700 (28400,81100) 8800 (4600,13100) 46100 (23900,68200)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)5700 (2400,8800) 15300 (6500,23900) 2200 (900,3400) 12700 (5400,19900)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)2400 (800,4000) 6500 (2300,10800) 1100 (400,1700) 5500(1900,9100)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)23500 (4300,42700) 58400 (10700,106000) 8100 (1500,14800) 49200 (9000,89500)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 82200 (69600,94800) 212000 (179500,244400) 27800 (23500,32000) 189500(160500,218600)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 14900 (5700,24400) 36800 (14000,59900) 5400 (2100,8800) 32800 (12500,53400)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-8Table A-8- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNYPARIVTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)997249000(76424000,3073932000)482212000(36953000,1486373000)123495000(9466000,380663000)27384000(2098000,84408000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1729000(146000,5083000) 706000 (60000,2074000) 145000 (12000,426000) 31000 (3000,90000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 94800 (-21900,211900) 35100 (-8100,78600) 10100 (-2300,22600) 1800(-400,4000)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 3110700 (766900,5442700) 1361100 (335200,2382900) 343900 (85100,600100) 79400 (19600,139100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)42980 (-16030,210910) 15890 (-5920,77980) 4500 (-1680,22050) 760 (-280,3720)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)75260 (14240,137900) 27820 (5260,50980) 7880 (1490,14430) 1330 (250,2430)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)47600 (-950,96860) 17600 (-350,35810) 4980 (-100,10130) 840 (-20,1710)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)36792300(680200,173610000)14704300(271700,69393300) 4081300 (75600,19257600) 914000 (16900,4313200)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)4020 (1940,6410) 1490 (720,2380) 410 (200,660) 70 (30,110)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)78300 (13800,142800) 35800 (6300,65300) 9100 (1600,16500) 1900 (300,3500)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)24700 (-54200,103600) 11200 (-24500,46900) 2800 (-6200,11800) 600 (-1400,2600)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)72100 (-41800,185900) 32200 (-18600,83000) 7900 (-4600,20400) 1900 (-1100,4900)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 27100 (10400,43800) 10100 (3900,16400) 2800 (1100,4500) 500 (200,900)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 201700 (115500,288000) 91200 (52200,130200) 22800 (13000,32500) 5200 (3000,7400)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 108300(56200,160400) 44200 (22900,65500) 11600 (6000,17100) 2700 (1400,4000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)30200 (12900,47100) 13500 (5800,21100) 3300 (1400,5200) 800 (300,1200)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)12900 (4500,21300) 5300 (1800,8800) 1400 (500,2300) 300 (100,500)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)116200 (21200,211000) 53300 (9700,96800) 13500 (2500,24500) 2900 (500,5200)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 410600 (347700,473500) 136700 (115800,157700) 38500 (32600,44400) 6700(5700,7700)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 78900 (30100,128500) 29400 (11200,47900) 7900 (3000,12900) 1400 (500,2300)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-9Table A-9- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)6244000(478000,19245000)19986000(1531000,61604000)8401000(644000,25895000)1156000(89000,3563000)48470000(3714000,149402000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)15600(1300,46000)59500 (5000,175100)17100(1400,50200)3800(300,11300)123800(10500,364000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 490 (-110,1100) 2380 (-550,5340) 690 (-160,1540) 110 (-20,240)4520 (-1040,10120)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)20700(5100,36300)75100 (18500,131800)23500(5800,41200)3400 (800,6000)163000(40100,285800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 400 (-100,1800) 1800 (-700,8900) 400(-200,2000) 100 (0,300) 3300 (-1200,16200)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)600 (100,1200) 3200 (600,5800) 700 (100,1300) 100 (0,200) 5800 (1100,10600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)400 (0,800) 2000 (0,4100) 500 (0,900) 100 (0,200) 3600 (-100,7400)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)195500(3600,922900)825600(15200,3897500)278900(5100,1316400)36900(700,174100)1689200(31200,7974400)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 100 (0,100) 300 (100,400) 100 (0,100)0 (0,0) 500 (200,800)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)700 (100,1300) 2300 (400,4200) 800 (100,1400) 100 (0,200) 5500 (1000,10100)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 200 (-400,700) 600 (-1200,2300) 200 (-400,800) 0 (-100,100) 1300 (-2900,5500)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)600 (-300,1500) 1900 (-1100,4800) 600 (-400,1600) 100 (-100,200) 4400 (-2500,11300)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 100 (100,200) 700 (300,1100) 200 (100,300) 0 (0,0) 1200 (500,1900)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)1600 (900,2300) 5300 (3000,7500) 1800 (1000,2600) 300 (100,400) 12500 (7200,17900)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)900 (500,1400) 3900 (2000,5800) 1000 (500,1500) 200(100,200) 7400 (3800,11000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)300 (100,400) 900 (400,1400) 300 (100,500) 0 (0,100) 2100 (900,3300)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 100 (0,200) 400 (200,700) 100 (0,200) 0(0,0) 900 (300,1400)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 1100 (200,2000) 3600 (700,6600) 1200 (200,2200) 200 (0,300) 8800 (1600,16000)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2600 (2200,3000) 14500 (12200,16700) 3100 (2600,3500) 400 (400,500) 24600 (20800,28400)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 700 (300,1100) 3400 (1300,5500) 800 (300,1300) 100 (100,200) 6000 (2300,9800)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-10Table A-10- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointSC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)20157000(1545000,62132000)9840000(754000,30332000)77320000(5925000,238330000)10576000(810000,32600000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)39900 (3400,117400) 19800 (1700,58200) 171300 (14500,503600) 17200 (1500,50600)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1550 (-360,3470) 780 (-180,1740) 7850 (-1810,17570)660 (-150,1480)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)70600 (17400,123900) 31900 (7800,56000) 221500 (54400,388200) 23800 (5900,41800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1200 (-400,5800) 500 (-200,2700) 4300 (-1600,21000)300 (-100,1600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)2100 (400,3800) 1000 (200,1800) 7500 (1400,13700) 600 (100,1100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6to 18)1300 (0,2700) 600 (0,1200) 4700 (-100,9600) 400 (0,700)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)640300(11800,3022900)316200(5800,1492600)3164400(58400,14936800)312600 (5800,1475800)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)200 (100,300) 100 (0,100) 700 (300,1100) 100 (0,100)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older)2400 (400,4400) 1100 (200,2000) 7200 (1300,13100) 800 (100,1500)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)600 (-1300,2400) 300 (-600,1100) 1700 (-3800,7200)200 (-400,900)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)1900 (-1100,5000) 900 (-500,2300) 5700 (-3300,14800) 700 (-400,1800)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)500 (200,700) 200 (100,300) 1700 (600,2700) 100 (100,200)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction(Adults 65 years and older)5500 (3200,7900) 2500 (1400,3500) 16300 (9400,23300) 1900 (1100,2800)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction(Adults 18 to 64 years)3100 (1600,4600) 1400 (700,2100) 10800 (5600,16000)1000 (500,1400)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)900 (400,1500) 400 (200,700) 2800 (1200,4400) 300 (100,500)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)400 (100,600) 200 (100,300) 1200 (400,2000) 100 (0,200)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)3800 (700,7000) 1700 (300,3100) 11400 (2100,20700)1300 (200,2400)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)8900 (7500,10300) 4200 (3600,4900) 40800 (34600,47100) 2500 (2100,2900)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)2200 (800,3600) 1000 (400,1700) 8000 (3000,13000) 600 (200,1000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-11Table A-11- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)6558000(503000,20214000)7405000(567000,22824000)6956000(533000,21442000)33124000(2538000,102100000)966000(74000,2979000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)16830 (1420,49500)18520(1570,54450)16910(1430,49720)67220 (5680,197650) 2070 (170,6080)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)630 (-150,1410) 710 (-160,1580) 650 (-150,1460) 2750 (-630,6150) 90 (-20,200)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)16660 (4090,29230)23040(5660,40420)21130(5190,37070)101300(24890,177680)1980 (490,3470)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)270 (-100,1320) 380 (-140,1860) 330 (-120,1610) 1470 (-550,7240) 30 (-10,140)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 470 (90,860) 660 (130,1210) 570 (110,1050) 2580 (490,4730) 50 (10,90)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)300 (-10,600) 420 (-10,850) 360 (-10,740) 1630 (-30,3320) 30 (0,70)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)235740(4350,1112930)264000(4870,1246300)253320(4680,1195890)1103990(20380,5211720)36630(680,172920)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 50 (20,80) 70 (30,110) 60 (30,100) 270 (130,430) 10 (0,10)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)540 (90,980) 710 (130,1290) 660 (120,1210) 3220 (570,5870) 60 (10,110)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)130 (-270,530) 170 (-370,720) 160 (-340,660) 770 (-1680,3210) 10 (-30,60)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 390 (-230,1010) 540 (-310,1400) 490 (-280,1270) 2410 (-1390,6200) 50 (-30,120)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)110 (40,180) 160 (60,250) 140 (50,230) 630 (240,1020) 10 (0,20)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)1120 (640,1600) 1520 (870,2170) 1390 (800,1990) 6810 (3900,9720) 130 (80,190)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)510 (270,760) 740 (380,1090) 670 (350,990) 3120 (1620,4620) 60 (30,90)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)200 (80,310) 270 (120,420) 250 (110,390) 1210 (510,1880) 20 (10,40)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)80 (30,130) 110 (40,190) 100 (40,170) 480 (170,790)10 (0,20)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)890 (160,1620) 1180 (220,2150) 1100 (200,2010) 5350(980,9720) 100 (20,190)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)2440 (2060,2810) 3020 (2560,3480) 3090 (2620,3570)12560 (10630,14480) 250 (210,290)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)500 (190,810) 700 (270,1150) 620 (240,1010) 2770 (1050,4520) 60 (20,90)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-12Table A-12- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI)Endpoint CT DE DC ME MD MAMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)3.68 (1.01,6.35) 0.56 (0.15,0.97) 0.5 (0.14,0.87) 2.77 (0.76,4.78) 3.58 (0.98,6.18) 8.65 (2.37,14.93)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.01)0.01 (0,0.01)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)5.79 (-1.34,12.91) 0.83 (-0.19,1.86) 0.53 (-0.12,1.19) 3.07 (-0.71,6.84) 5.42 (-1.25,12.09) 13.11 (-3.03,29.25)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1.1 (0.27,1.93) 0.12 (0.03,0.22) 0.09 (0.02,0.16) 0.83 (0.2,1.45) 0.74 (0.18,1.3) 2.55 (0.63,4.47)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)6.32 (-2.36,31.13) 0.91 (-0.34,4.49) 0.55 (-0.2,2.69) 3.29 (-1.23,16.22) 5.67 (-2.12,27.93) 14.12 (-5.28,69.61)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)11.05 (2.1,20.01) 1.59 (0.3,2.89) 0.96 (0.18,1.73)5.76 (1.09,10.43) 9.92 (1.88,17.95) 24.71 (4.69,44.74)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)6.99 (-0.14,14.12) 1.01 (-0.02,2.04) 0.6 (-0.01,1.22) 3.64 (-0.07,7.36) 6.27 (-0.13,12.67) 15.63 (-0.31,31.58)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)2.42 (0.07,4.77) 0.37 (0.01,0.73) 0.3 (0.01,0.6) 1.7 (0.05,3.36) 2.44 (0.07,4.82) 5.93 (0.16,11.7)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.33 (0.17,0.5) 0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0.18 (0.09,0.26) 0.49 (0.25,0.73) 0.73 (0.37,1.09)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)0.12 (0.02,0.22) 0.02 (0,0.03) 0.01 (0,0.03) 0.09 (0.02,0.16) 0.11 (0.02,0.19) 0.27 (0.05,0.5)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.04 (-0.08,0.16) 0 (-0.01,0.02) 0 (-0.01,0.01) 0.03 (-0.06,0.12) 0.03 (-0.05,0.11) 0.09 (-0.19,0.36)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)0.06 (-0.04,0.16) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.05(-0.03,0.13) 0.05 (-0.03,0.13) 0.15 (-0.09,0.39)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.08 (0.03,0.13) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0.01) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.04 (0.02,0.07) 0.18 (0.07,0.29)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.22 (0.13,0.32) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.17 (0.1,0.24) 0.17 (0.1,0.24) 0.51 (0.29,0.73)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.11 (0.06,0.16) 0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.01 (0.01,0.02)0.08 (0.04,0.12) 0.1 (0.05,0.15) 0.25 (0.13,0.38)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0.12 (0.05,0.19)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.06 (0.02,0.11)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.16 (0.03,0.28) 0.02 (0,0.04) 0.02 (0,0.03) 0.11 (0.02,0.2) 0.14 (0.03,0.26) 0.35 (0.06,0.63)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)64.38 (54.51,74.26) 9.86 (8.35,11.37) 7.33 (6.2,8.45) 41.52 (35.15,47.89) 63.27 (53.57,72.97)154.17(130.53,177.82)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)9.73 (3.71,15.75) 1.41 (0.54,2.29) 0.82 (0.31,1.32)5.22 (1.99,8.45) 8.87 (3.38,14.36) 21.19 (8.08,34.29)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-13Table A-13- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint NH NJ NY PA RI VTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1.15 (0.32,1.98) 10.04 (2.76,17.33) 25.96 (7.13,44.8) 8.67 (2.38,14.95) 2.46 (0.67,4.24) 0.23 (0.06,0.39)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1.72 (-0.4,3.83) 15.58 (-3.61,34.76) 43.63 (-10.1,97.31) 10.56 (-2.44,23.55) 3.42 (-0.79,7.62) 0.25 (-0.06,0.56)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)0.34 (0.08,0.59) 2.85 (0.7,5) 7.29 (1.79,12.78) 2.35 (0.58,4.12) 0.66 (0.16,1.16) 0.06 (0.02,0.11)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1.74 (-0.65,8.6) 16.06 (-6.01,79.16) 43.62 (-16.32,214.98) 11.45 (-4.28,56.43) 3.67 (-1.37,18.06) 0.25(-0.1,1.26)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)3.05 (0.58,5.53) 28.11 (5.34,50.87) 76.34 (14.5,138.18) 20.03 (3.8,36.26) 6.41 (1.22,11.61) 0.45 (0.08,0.81)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1.93 (-0.04,3.9) 17.78 (-0.36,35.91) 48.29 (-0.97,97.54) 12.67 (-0.25,25.6) 4.06 (-0.08,8.19) 0.28 (-0.01,0.57)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.82 (0.02,1.61) 6.92 (0.19,13.64) 18.58 (0.52,36.64) 4.92 (0.14,9.71) 1.52 (0.04,2.99) 0.14 (0,0.28)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)0.09 (0.05,0.14) 0.85 (0.43,1.27) 2.3 (1.17,3.43) 0.6 (0.31,0.9) 0.19 (0.1,0.28) 0.01 (0.01,0.02)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)0.03 (0.01,0.06) 0.3 (0.05,0.56) 0.78 (0.14,1.42) 0.27 (0.05,0.49) 0.08 (0.01,0.14) 0.01 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.1 (-0.21,0.4) 0.25 (-0.54,1.04)0.08 (-0.18,0.35) 0.02 (-0.05,0.1) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease(Adults 65 years and older)0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.17 (-0.1,0.43) 0.42 (-0.25,1.1)0.14 (-0.08,0.36) 0.04 (-0.02,0.1) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.21 (0.08,0.33) 0.55 (0.21,0.89)0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years andolder)0.06 (0.04,0.09) 0.56 (0.32,0.81) 1.45 (0.83,2.07)0.49 (0.28,0.7) 0.14 (0.08,0.19) 0.01 (0.01,0.02)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64years)0.04 (0.02,0.05) 0.29 (0.15,0.43) 0.74 (0.38,1.09)0.22 (0.11,0.32) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.01 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.13 (0.06,0.21) 0.34 (0.15,0.53)0.11 (0.05,0.18) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults18-64 years)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.07 (0.03,0.12) 0.19 (0.06,0.31) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 yearsand above)0.04 (0.01,0.08) 0.39 (0.07,0.7) 0.99 (0.18,1.79) 0.34 (0.06,0.61) 0.1 (0.02,0.17) 0.01 (0,0.02)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)20.13(17.04,23.21)177.79(150.52,205.05)471.18 (398.92,543.43) 123.99 (104.97,143) 38.54 (32.63,44.46) 3.12 (2.64,3.59)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)2.74 (1.04,4.43) 25.06 (9.55,40.57) 67.09 (25.58,108.56) 17.69 (6.74,28.63) 5.4 (2.06,8.74) 0.39 (0.15,0.64)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-14Table A-14- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)0.11 (0.03,0.19) 0.36 (0.1,0.62) 0.13 (0.04,0.22) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.85 (0.23,1.46)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.15 (-0.03,0.33) 0.72 (-0.17,1.61) 0.18 (-0.04,0.4) 0.03 (-0.01,0.07) 1.33 (-0.31,2.97)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.13 (0.03,0.23) 0.03 (0.01,0.06)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.28 (0.07,0.48)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.26 (-0.1,1.27) 1.32 (-0.49,6.49) 0.25 (-0.09,1.23) 0.05 (-0.02,0.24) 2.35 (-0.88,11.59)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.45 (0.09,0.82) 2.3 (0.44,4.17) 0.44 (0.08,0.79) 0.09 (0.02,0.16) 4.12 (0.78,7.45)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.29 (-0.01,0.58) 1.46 (-0.03,2.94) 0.28 (-0.01,0.56) 0.05 (0,0.11) 2.6 (-0.05,5.26)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.06 (0,0.13) 0.28 (0.01,0.54) 0.08 (0,0.16) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.55 (0.02,1.09)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.11 (0.06,0.17) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0 (0,0.01) 0.2 (0.1,0.3)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.005 (0.001,0.01)0.017(0.003,0.031)0.005(0.001,0.009)0.001 (0,0.002) 0.041 (0.007,0.074)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.001 (-0.003,0.005)0.004 (-0.009,0.017)0.001 (-0.003,0.005)0 (0,0.001) 0.01 (-0.021,0.04)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.003 (-0.001,0.006)0.008 (-0.005,0.021)0.002 (-0.001,0.006)0 (0,0.001) 0.019 (-0.011,0.049)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.002 (0.001,0.003)0.01(0.004,0.015)0.002(0.001,0.003)0 (0,0.001) 0.017 (0.007,0.028)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.009 (0.005,0.012)0.028(0.016,0.04)0.008(0.005,0.011)0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.066 (0.038,0.094)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.005 (0.002,0.007)0.019(0.01,0.029)0.004(0.002,0.006)0.001 (0,0.001) 0.036 (0.019,0.054)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)0.002 (0.001,0.004)0.008(0.003,0.012)0.002(0.001,0.003)0 (0,0.001) 0.018 (0.008,0.028)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.001 (0,0.002)0.005(0.002,0.008)0.001 (0,0.002) 0 (0,0) 0.009 (0.003,0.015)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.02 (0,0.04) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.06 (0.01,0.1)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)2.71 (2.29,3.12)13.49(11.42,15.56)2.67 (2.26,3.08) 0.47 (0.4,0.54) 24.47 (20.71,28.22)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)0.41 (0.15,0.66) 2.05 (0.78,3.32) 0.39 (0.15,0.63)0.08 (0.03,0.13) 3.58 (1.36,5.79)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-15Table A-15- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)0.36 (0.1,0.62) 0.16 (0.05,0.28) 1.36 (0.37,2.35) 0.17 (0.05,0.3)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.47 (-0.11,1.04) 0.22 (-0.05,0.49) 2.31 (-0.54,5.16) 0.18 (-0.04,0.4)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.12 (0.03,0.21) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.38 (0.09,0.66)0.04 (0.01,0.06)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.86 (-0.32,4.23) 0.37 (-0.14,1.84) 3.04 (-1.14,14.98) 0.21 (-0.08,1.01)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)1.5 (0.29,2.72) 0.65 (0.12,1.18) 5.32 (1.01,9.63) 0.36 (0.07,0.65)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.95 (-0.02,1.92) 0.41 (-0.01,0.83) 3.36 (-0.07,6.8) 0.23 (0,0.46)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.21 (0.01,0.42) 0.1 (0,0.19) 1.05 (0.03,2.08) 0.09(0,0.19)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.07 (0.04,0.11) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.27 (0.14,0.4) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.018 (0.003,0.033) 0.008 (0.001,0.014) 0.053 (0.009,0.096) 0.006 (0.001,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.004 (-0.009,0.018) 0.002 (-0.004,0.008) 0.013 (-0.027,0.052) 0.001 (-0.003,0.006)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.009 (-0.005,0.022) 0.004 (-0.002,0.009) 0.025 (-0.014,0.064) 0.003 (-0.002,0.007)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.007 (0.003,0.011) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.024 (0.009,0.038) 0.002 (0.001,0.003)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.03 (0.017,0.042) 0.013 (0.007,0.018) 0.086 (0.049,0.122) 0.009 (0.005,0.013)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.016 (0.008,0.023) 0.007 (0.004,0.01) 0.053 (0.027,0.078) 0.004 (0.002,0.006)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.008 (0.003,0.012) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.023 (0.01,0.036) 0.002 (0.001,0.004)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.004 (0.001,0.006) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.013 (0.005,0.021) 0.001 (0,0.002)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.02 (0,0.04) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.01 (0,0.01)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)9.25 (7.83,10.67) 4.01 (3.39,4.62) 34.87 (29.52,40.22) 2.39 (2.02,2.76)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)1.34 (0.51,2.16) 0.58 (0.22,0.94) 4.74 (1.8,7.67) 0.32 (0.12,0.52)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-16Table A-16- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)0.11 (0.03,0.18) 0.11 (0.03,0.19) 0.09 (0.03,0.16)0.52 (0.14,0.89) 0.02 (0,0.03)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.001 (0,0.002) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.17 (-0.04,0.39) 0.18 (-0.04,0.39) 0.15 (-0.03,0.34) 0.72 (-0.17,1.6) 0.03 (-0.01,0.06)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.04)0.14 (0.03,0.24)0.003(0.001,0.005)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.16 (-0.06,0.77) 0.21 (-0.08,1.02) 0.16 (-0.06,0.79) 0.84 (-0.31,4.12) 0.02 (-0.01,0.09)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.27 (0.05,0.49) 0.36 (0.07,0.65) 0.28 (0.05,0.51)1.46 (0.28,2.65) 0.03 (0.01,0.06)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.17 (0,0.35) 0.23 (0,0.46) 0.18 (0,0.36) 0.92 (-0.02,1.87) 0.02 (0,0.04)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.07 (0,0.14) 0.07 (0,0.14) 0.06 (0,0.13) 0.32 (0.01,0.63) 0.01 (0,0.02)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.09 (0.04,0.13)0.002(0.001,0.003)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.003 (0.001,0.006)0.004(0.001,0.007)0.003 (0.001,0.006) 0.02 (0,0.03) 0 (0,0.001)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.001 (-0.002,0.003)0.001 (-0.002,0.004)0.001 (-0.002,0.003) 0 (-0.01,0.02) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.001 (-0.001,0.003)0.002 (-0.001,0.005)0.002 (-0.001,0.004) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0.001)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.001 (0.001,0.002)0.002(0.001,0.003)0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.007 (0.003,0.012) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.005 (0.003,0.007)0.006(0.004,0.009)0.005 (0.003,0.007) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.001 (0,0.001)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.002 (0.001,0.003)0.003(0.001,0.004)0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)0.001 (0.001,0.002)0.002(0.001,0.003)0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.001 (0,0.001) 0.001 (0,0.002) 0.001 (0,0.001) 0.004 (0.001,0.007) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.004 (0.001,0.008)0.006(0.001,0.01)0.005 (0.001,0.009) 0.027 (0.005,0.048) 0.001 (0,0.001)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)1.61 (1.36,1.85) 2.11 (1.79,2.43) 1.7 (1.44,1.96) 8.92 (7.55,10.29) 0.2 (0.17,0.23)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)0.24 (0.09,0.39) 0.32 (0.12,0.52) 0.25 (0.1,0.41) 1.31 (0.5,2.12) 0.03 (0.01,0.05)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-17Table A-17- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointCTDEDCMEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)23189000(1777000,71478000)3548000(272000,10937000)3176000(243000,9790000)17438000(1336000,53749000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)36100 (3100,106100) 7500 (600,21900) 6900 (600,20300)15700 (1300,46100)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)2160 (-500,4850) 310 (-70,700) 200 (-50,450) 1150 (-260,2570)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)72600 (17800,127300) 8100 (2000,14300) 6000 (1500,10600) 54500 (13400,95600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)990 (-370,4850) 140 (-50,700) 90 (-30,420) 510 (-190,2520)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1730 (330,3160) 250 (50,460) 150 (30,270) 900 (170,1650)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1090 (-20,2220) 160 (0,320) 90 (0,190) 570 (-10,1160)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)816700 (15100,3855300) 125100 (2300,590700) 102500 (1900,483800) 575200 (10600,2715100)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)90 (40,150) 20 (10,30) 10 (10,20) 50 (20,80)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)1890 (330,3460) 260 (50,480) 210 (40,390) 1340 (240,2450)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)590 (-1280,2460) 60 (-140,270) 50 (-110,210) 430 (-950,1820)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)1660 (-960,4270) 210 (-120,550) 160 (-90,420) 1300 (-760,3360)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)620 (240,1000) 60 (20,90) 40 (10,60) 370 (140,590)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)4800 (2700,6800) 600 (300,900) 500 (300,700) 3600 (2000,5100)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)2470 (1280,3660) 380 (200,560) 270 (140,390) 1820 (950,2700)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)700 (300,1100) 100 (40,160) 80 (30,130) 540 (230,840)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)300 (100,490) 40 (20,70) 30 (10,50) 220 (80,360)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)2820 (510,5130) 410 (80,750) 340 (60,620) 1980 (360,3610)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)9920 (8400,11440) 1290 (1090,1490) 1080 (920,1250) 4580 (3880,5280)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)1820 (690,2970) 260 (100,430) 150 (60,250) 980 (370,1590)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-18Table A-18- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointMDMANHNJMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)22560000(1729000,69539000)54507000(4177000,168010000)7238000(555000,22311000)63286000(4849000,195073000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)46000 (3900,135400) 56600 (4800,166500) 7100 (600,20900) 104100 (8800,306100)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)2030 (-470,4540) 4900 (-1130,10970) 640 (-150,1440) 5830 (-1340,13040)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)49000 (12000,86000) 168200 (41300,294900) 22200 (5500,39000) 187700 (46100,329200)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)890 (-330,4350) 2210 (-820,10830) 270 (-100,1340) 2510(-930,12320)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1550 (290,2840) 3860 (730,7080) 480 (90,870) 4390 (830,8050)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)980 (-20,1990) 2440 (-50,4970) 300 (-10,610) 2780 (-60,5650)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)824300 (15200,3891500) 2001500 (36900,9448000) 276300(5100,1304300) 2334400 (43100,11019800)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)140 (70,220) 200 (100,320) 30 (10,40) 240 (110,380)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)1640 (290,2990) 4210 (740,7680) 520 (90,940) 4710 (830,8580)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)380 (-840,1610) 1330 (-2920,5590) 170 (-360,690) 1480(-3240,6200)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)1270 (-730,3270) 3910 (-2260,10090) 490 (-280,1270) 4300 (-2490,11100)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)350 (130,560) 1410 (540,2280) 180 (70,300) 1630 (630,2630)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)3700 (2100,5200) 10900 (6200,15500) 1400 (800,1900) 12100 (6900,17200)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)2330 (1210,3450) 5840 (3030,8650) 830 (430,1230) 6610(3430,9790)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)630 (270,980) 1640 (700,2550) 200 (90,320) 1810 (770,2820)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)270 (90,450) 700 (240,1150) 100 (30,160) 790 (270,1300)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)2610 (480,4750) 6240 (1140,11340) 760 (140,1390) 6990(1280,12710)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)9170 (7760,10580) 22750 (19260,26240) 2630 (2230,3040) 27680 (23440,31930)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)1660 (630,2710) 3960 (1510,6460) 510 (190,830) 4690 (1780,7640)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-19Table A-19- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNYPARIVTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)163592000(12536000,504254000)54605000(4184000,168312000)15489000(1187000,47744000)1426000 (109000,4395000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)305900 (25900,899400) 79200 (6700,232900) 18500 (1600,54300) 1600 (100,4700)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)16320 (-3760,36510) 3950 (-910,8840) 1280 (-290,2860)90 (-20,210)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)480600 (118200,842400) 154900 (38000,271600) 43700 (10700,76600) 4200 (1000,7400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)6810 (-2540,33460) 1790 (-670,8780) 570 (-210,2810) 40(-10,200)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)11930 (2260,21860) 3130 (590,5740) 1000 (190,1840) 70(10,130)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)7550 (-150,15360) 1980 (-40,4030) 630 (-10,1290) 40 (0,90)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)6270400(115800,29598400)1661300 (30700,7842500) 511800 (9500,2415900) 47500 (900,224100)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)640 (310,1020) 170 (80,270) 50 (30,80) 0 (0,10)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)11990 (2110,21860) 4070 (720,7430) 1150 (200,2090) 100(20,190)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)3790 (-8290,15870) 1270 (-2790,5340) 350 (-780,1490) 30 (-70,140)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)11040 (-6400,28480) 3660 (-2120,9430) 1000 (-580,2570) 100 (-60,260)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)4320 (1660,6970) 1140 (440,1850) 360 (140,570) 30 (10,40)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)30900 (17700,44100) 10400 (5900,14800) 2900 (1600,4100) 300 (200,400)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)16850 (8740,24960) 4990 (2590,7400) 1450 (750,2150) 140 (70,210)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)4630 (1970,7210) 1540 (650,2400) 420 (180,660) 40 (20,60)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)1990 (690,3300) 600 (210,990) 170 (60,290) 20 (10,30)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)17790 (3250,32330) 6060 (1110,11010) 1710 (310,3100) 150 (30,270)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)66020 (55900,76140) 15440 (13080,17810) 4890 (4140,5630) 350 (300,410)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)12550 (4770,20460) 3310 (1260,5390) 1010 (380,1650) 70(30,120)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-20Table A-20- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)696100(53300,2145800)2253100(172600,6945000)814100(62400,2509500)123900(9500,382000)5328300(408300,16423800)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)1700 (100,5100) 6700 (600,19700) 1700 (100,4900) 411 (35,1208) 13600 (1100,39900)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)50 (-10,120) 270 (-60,600) 70 (-20,150) 10 (0,30) 500 (-110,1110)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)2300 (600,4100)8500(2100,14900)2200 (500,3900) 400 (100,700) 18200 (4500,31900)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)40 (-20,200) 210 (-80,1010) 40 (-10,190) 10 (0,40)370 (-140,1800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)70 (10,130) 360 (70,660) 70 (10,120) 10 (0,20) 640(120,1180)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)40 (0,90) 230 (0,460) 40 (0,90) 10 (0,20) 410 (-10,830)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)21800 (400,102800)93200(1700,440000)27100(500,127800)3900 (100,18600)186000(3400,877900)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)10 (0,10) 30 (20,50) 10 (0,10) 1 (1,2) 60 (30,90)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)80 (10,150) 260 (50,470) 70 (10,130) 13 (2,23) 620(110,1130)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)20 (-40,80) 60 (-140,260) 20 (-40,70) 3 (-7,13) 150(-320,610)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)60 (-40,160) 210 (-120,550) 60 (-30,160) 10 (-10,30) 490 (-280,1260)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)20 (10,20) 70 (30,120) 10 (10,20) 3 (1,4) 130 (50,210)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)200 (100,300) 600 (300,900) 200 (100,200) 29 (16,41) 1400 (800,2000)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)100 (100,200) 400 (200,700) 100 (100,100) 17 (9,25)800 (400,1200)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)30 (10,50) 100 (40,160) 30 (10,50) 5 (2,8) 240 (100,370)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)10 (0,20) 50 (20,80) 10 (0,20) 2 (1,3) 100 (30,160)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)100 (0,200) 400 (100,700) 100 (0,200) 20 (4,37) 1000 (200,1800)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)300 (300,300) 1600 (1400,1900) 300 (200,300) 47 (40,54) 2700 (2300,3200)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)100 (0,100) 400 (100,600) 100 (0,100) 15 (6,24) 700(300,1100)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-21Table A-21- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)2265500(173600,6983100)1038900(79600,3202200)8597700(658800,26501500)1084300(83100,3342400)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)4500 (400,13200) 2100 (200,6100) 19000 (1600,55900)1800 (100,5200)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)170 (-40,390) 80 (-20,180) 870 (-200,1940) 70 (-20,150)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)8000 (2000,14000) 3400 (800,6000) 24700 (6100,43400) 2300 (600,4100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)130 (-50,660) 60 (-20,290) 470 (-180,2330) 30 (-10,160)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)230 (40,430) 100 (20,190) 830 (160,1520) 60 (10,100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)150 (0,300) 60 (0,130) 530 (-10,1070) 40 (0,70)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)72000(1300,339700)33300 (600,157200) 356000 (6600,1680700) 32000 (600,151200)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)20 (10,30) 10 (0,10) 70 (40,120) 0 (0,10)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)270 (50,500) 120 (20,210) 800 (140,1470) 80 (10,150)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)70 (-140,270) 30 (-60,120) 190 (-420,800) 20 (-40,80)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)220 (-130,560) 90 (-50,240) 640 (-370,1650) 70 (-40,170)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)50 (20,80) 20 (10,40) 190 (70,300) 10 (0,20)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)600 (400,900) 300 (200,400) 1800 (1000,2600) 200 (100,300)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)400 (200,500) 200 (100,200) 1200 (600,1800) 100 (0,100)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)110 (50,170) 50 (20,70) 310 (130,490) 30 (10,50)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)40 (10,70) 20 (10,30) 140 (50,230) 10 (0,20)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)400 (100,800) 200 (0,300) 1300 (200,2300) 100 (0,200)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)1000 (800,1200) 400 (400,500) 4600 (3900,5300) 200(200,300)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)200 (100,400) 100 (0,200) 900 (300,1400) 100 (0,100)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-22Table A-22- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)661600(50700,2039200)691800(53000,2132400)597700(45800,1842400)3262600(250000,10056400)100100(7700,308700)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)1760 (150,5170) 1730 (150,5090) 1450 (120,4260) 6610 (560,19440) 210 (20,620)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)65 (-15,146) 66 (-15,148) 56 (-13,126) 269 (-62,602) 9 (-2,21)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1480 (360,2600) 1970 (480,3460) 1620 (400,2840) 9000 (2210,15790) 190 (50,340)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)24 (-9,119) 32 (-12,158) 25 (-9,123) 130 (-49,641)3 (-1,14)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)43 (8,78) 56 (11,103) 44 (8,80) 228 (43,418) 5 (1,9)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)27 (-1,55) 36 (-1,73) 28 (-1,56) 144 (-3,294) 3 (0,6)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)24060 (440,113560) 24610 (450,116180) 21700 (400,102450) 108410 (2000,511780) 3820 (70,18020)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)4 (2,7) 6 (3,9) 5 (2,7) 24 (12,38) 1 (0,1)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)48 (8,87) 61 (11,111) 51 (9,93) 286 (50,521) 6 (1,11)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)11 (-24,47) 15 (-32,61) 12 (-26,50) 68 (-149,286) 1(-3,6)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)35 (-20,90) 47 (-27,120) 38 (-22,97) 214 (-124,552)5 (-3,12)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)10 (4,16) 13 (5,22) 11 (4,17) 56 (22,91) 1 (0,2)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)100 (60,140) 130 (70,190) 110 (60,150) 600 (350,860) 10 (10,20)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)46 (24,68) 63 (33,94) 51 (26,76) 277 (144,410) 6 (3,9)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)17 (7,27) 23 (10,36) 19 (8,30) 107 (46,167) 2 (1,4)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)7 (2,12) 10 (3,16) 8 (3,13) 42 (15,70) 1 (0,2)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)80 (10,140) 100 (20,180) 80 (20,150) 470 (90,860) 10 (0,20)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)220 (190,250) 260 (220,300) 240 (200,270) 1110 (940,1280) 20 (20,30)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)40 (20,70) 60 (20,100) 50 (20,80) 250 (90,400) 10 (0,10)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-23Table A-23- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI)Endpoint CT DE DC ME MD MAMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)52 (14,90) 18 (5,31) 5 (1,9) 8 (2,14) 103 (28,177)77 (21,133)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.08 (0.03,0.13) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.21 (0.08,0.33) 0.08 (0.03,0.12)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)81 (-19,180) 26 (-6,58) 6 (-1,13) 9 (-2,20) 159 (-37,353) 112 (-26,248)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)18 (5,32) 4 (1,7) 1 (0,2) 3 (1,5) 24 (6,42) 26 (6,45)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)106 (-40,519) 28 (-10,137) 9 (-3,43) 11 (-4,57) 188(-70,924) 139 (-52,681)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)185 (35,335) 49 (9,88) 15 (3,27) 20 (4,36) 329 (63,596) 243 (46,439)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)117 (-2,236) 31 (-1,62) 10 (0,19) 13 (0,26) 208 (-4,420) 153 (-3,310)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)34 (1,67) 12 (0,23) 3 (0,7) 5 (0,10) 71 (2,140) 51(1,101)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)6 (3,8) 2 (1,3) 1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 16 (8,24) 7 (4,11)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)2.1 (0.4,3.8) 0.5 (0.1,1) 0.2 (0,0.4) 0.3 (0.1,0.6)3.5 (0.6,6.3) 2.8 (0.5,5.2)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.6 (-1.4,2.7) 0.1 (-0.3,0.5) 0.1 (-0.1,0.2) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 0.8 (-1.8,3.4) 0.9 (-2,3.8)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)1.1 (-0.6,2.8) 0.3 (-0.1,0.7) 0.1 (-0.1,0.3) 0.2 (-0.1,0.5) 1.6 (-0.9,4.1) 1.6 (-0.9,4)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)1.3 (0.5,2.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 1.5 (0.6,2.4) 1.8 (0.7,2.8)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)3.7 (2.1,5.4) 0.9 (0.5,1.2) 0.4 (0.2,0.5) 0.6 (0.3,0.8) 5.6 (3.2,8) 5.3 (3,7.5)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)1.81 (0.94,2.69) 0.51 (0.27,0.76) 0.19 (0.1,0.27) 0.29 (0.15,0.42) 3.38 (1.75,5) 2.6 (1.35,3.84)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.87 (0.37,1.36) 0.23 (0.1,0.37) 0.09 (0.04,0.15) 0.14 (0.06,0.22) 1.51 (0.64,2.34) 1.25 (0.53,1.94)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.46 (0.16,0.76) 0.13 (0.04,0.21) 0.05 (0.02,0.08)0.07 (0.03,0.12) 0.83 (0.29,1.38) 0.66 (0.23,1.09)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)2.62 (0.48,4.76) 0.71 (0.13,1.29) 0.3 (0.06,0.55) 0.39 (0.07,0.7) 4.71 (0.86,8.55) 3.57 (0.65,6.48)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)1081 (916,1247) 303 (256,349) 119 (101,137) 143 (121,165) 2082 (1764,2401) 1505 (1274,1735)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)161 (62,260) 43 (16,69) 13 (5,21) 18 (7,29) 292 (112,470) 208 (80,336)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-24Table A-24- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint NH NJ NY PA RI VTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)8 (2,15) 183 (50,316) 274 (75,472) 245 (67,422) 18(5,31) 3 (1,4)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.28 (0.11,0.45) 0.46 (0.18,0.74) 0.33 (0.13,0.54) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)13 (-3,29) 272 (-63,603) 440 (-103,979) 279 (-65,621) 24 (-6,54) 3 (-1,6)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)3 (1,5) 57 (14,99) 92 (23,160) 66 (16,115) 6 (1,10)0.8 (0.2,1.4)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)14 (-5,69) 318 (-119,1565) 545 (-204,2680) 308 (-115,1514) 30 (-11,149)3.3 (-1.2,16.4)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)25 (5,45) 557 (106,1008) 955 (181,1728) 539 (102,975) 53 (10,96)5.8(1.1,10.5)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)16 (0,31) 352 (-7,711) 604 (-12,1218) 341 (-7,688)34 (-1,68)3.7 (-0.1,7.4)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)6 (0,12) 120 (3,236) 189 (5,372) 136 (4,268) 11 (0,22) 1.6 (0,3.1)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)1 (0,1) 17 (9,25) 29 (15,42) 16 (8,24) 2 (1,2) 0.2(0.1,0.3)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.3 (0,0.5) 6.2 (1.1,11.3) 10 (1.8,18.2) 7.6 (1.3,13.9) 0.6 (0.1,1.2) 0.1 (0,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 2 (-4.3,8.2) 3.2 (-6.9,13.2) 2.4 (-5.2,10) 0.2 (-0.4,0.8) 0 (-0.1,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.1 (-0.1,0.4) 3.4 (-2,8.7) 5.4 (-3.2,14) 4 (-2.3,10.4) 0.3 (-0.2,0.9) 0 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 4.1 (1.6,6.5) 6.8 (2.6,11) 4 (1.5,6.5) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.5 (0.3,0.7) 11.5 (6.6,16.4) 18.6 (10.6,26.5) 14 (8,20) 1.2 (0.7,1.7) 0.2 (0.1,0.2)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.29 (0.15,0.43) 5.75 (2.98,8.52) 9.38 (4.87,13.89)6.19 (3.21,9.17) 0.56 (0.29,0.83)0.08(0.04,0.12)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.12 (0.05,0.19) 2.71 (1.15,4.22) 4.37 (1.86,6.81)3.28 (1.4,5.1) 0.27 (0.12,0.42)0.04(0.02,0.06)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.07 (0.03,0.12) 1.46 (0.51,2.41) 2.37 (0.82,3.91)1.59 (0.55,2.62) 0.14 (0.05,0.24)0.02(0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.33 (0.06,0.6) 7.88 (1.44,14.3) 12.61 (2.31,22.88)9.68 (1.77,17.57) 0.82 (0.15,1.48)0.11(0.02,0.2)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)161 (136,185)3450(2922,3978)5778 (4893,6661) 3406 (2885,3928) 324 (274,373) 41(34,47)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)22 (8,36) 493 (189,795) 836 (321,1347) 473 (181,762) 45 (17,72) 5 (2,8)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-25Table A-25- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-2 (0,-3) -4 (-1,-8) 121 (33,209) 2 (1,3) 32 (9,56)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,-0.01)-0.01 (-0.01,-0.02)0.25 (0.1,0.41) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.08 (0.03,0.13)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-2 (0,-4) -9 (2,-21) 169 (-39,374) 3 (-1,7) 50 (-12,112)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.9 (0.2,1.5) 2.3 (0.6,3.9) 31.4 (7.9,54.5) 1 (0.2,1.7) 10.7 (2.7,18.8)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)6 (-2,31) 24 (-9,117) 234 (-88,1150) 9 (-3,43) 88 (-33,434)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)11 (2,20) 42 (8,76) 410 (78,742) 15 (3,28) 154 (29,279)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)7 (0,14) 26 (-1,53) 259 (-5,523) 10 (0,20) 98 (-2,197)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-0.8 (0,-1.6) -3.5 (-0.1,-6.9) 75.6 (2.1,148.7) 1.2(0,2.4) 21 (0.6,41.5)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.5 (0.3,0.8) 2.1 (1.1,3.1) 20.5 (10.5,30.3) 0.8 (0.4,1.1) 7.5 (3.8,11.2)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.1 (0,0.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 4.7 (0.8,8.5) 0.1 (0,0.3)1.6 (0.3,3)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.03 (-0.07,0.13)0.07 (-0.16,0.31)1.12 (-2.47,4.69) 0.03 (-0.07,0.14) 0.38 (-0.84,1.6)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.06 (-0.04,0.16)0.15 (-0.08,0.38)2.23 (-1.29,5.75) 0.07 (-0.04,0.17) 0.75 (-0.43,1.93)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.17 (0.07,0.28) 1.79 (0.69,2.88)0.06 (0.02,0.1) 0.64 (0.25,1.04)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.22 (0.13,0.31) 0.5 (0.29,0.72)7.66(4.39,10.93)0.23 (0.13,0.33) 2.62 (1.5,3.74)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.11 (0.06,0.17) 0.35 (0.18,0.52) 4.05 (2.1,5.99) 0.13 (0.07,0.2) 1.39 (0.72,2.07)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.14 (0.06,0.21) 2.1 (0.89,3.27) 0.06 (0.03,0.1) 0.71 (0.3,1.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.09 (0.03,0.14) 1.02 (0.35,1.68)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.34 (0.12,0.57)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.18 (0.03,0.33) 0.41 (0.07,0.74) 6.29 (1.15,11.4)0.19 (0.03,0.34) 2.2 (0.4,3.99)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)66 (56,76) 250 (212,288)2501(2119,2883)83 (70,96) 920 (779,1061)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)10 (4,16) 37 (14,59) 362 (139,581) 14 (5,22) 134 (51,216)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-26Table A-26- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), continued.Endpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)10 (3,18) 57 (16,98) 61 (17,106) 45 (12,78)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.14 (0.05,0.23) 0.12 (0.05,0.19)0.07 (0.03,0.12)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)13 (-3,30) 83 (-19,184) 99 (-23,220) 44 (-10,98)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)3.6 (0.9,6.2) 16.8 (4.2,29.3) 19.3 (4.8,33.5) 10 (2.5,17.4)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)26 (-10,128) 134 (-50,661) 153 (-57,753) 57 (-21,279)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)46 (9,83) 236 (45,426) 268 (51,485) 99 (19,180)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)29 (-1,58) 149 (-3,300) 170 (-3,342) 63 (-1,127)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)6 (0.2,11.9) 35.7 (1,70.2) 44.6 (1.2,87.9) 23.7 (0.7,46.7)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)2.2 (1.1,3.3) 11.6 (5.9,17.2) 13.3 (6.8,19.8) 4.9 (2.5,7.3)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.5 (0.1,1) 2.5 (0.4,4.5) 2.8 (0.5,5) 1.6 (0.3,2.9)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.13 (-0.28,0.53) 0.59 (-1.3,2.48) 0.66 (-1.44,2.75) 0.38 (-0.83,1.59)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.25 (-0.15,0.65) 1.18 (-0.68,3.04) 1.3 (-0.75,3.35) 0.75 (-0.43,1.93)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.2 (0.08,0.32) 1 (0.39,1.62) 1.18 (0.46,1.91) 0.46(0.18,0.74)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.88 (0.5,1.25) 4.07 (2.33,5.81) 4.51 (2.58,6.43) 2.59 (1.48,3.69)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.47 (0.24,0.69) 2.27 (1.18,3.36) 2.7 (1.4,4) 1.15(0.6,1.7)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.24 (0.1,0.37) 1.11 (0.47,1.72) 1.22 (0.52,1.9) 0.7 (0.3,1.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.12 (0.04,0.19) 0.56 (0.19,0.93) 0.66 (0.23,1.09)0.29 (0.1,0.48)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.73 (0.13,1.32) 3.33 (0.61,6.05) 3.71 (0.68,6.74)2.14 (0.39,3.88)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)278 (235,320) 1415 (1198,1631) 1721 (1458,1984) 662(561,763)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)40 (15,65) 207 (79,333) 237 (91,382) 87 (33,140)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-27Table A-27- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-4 (-1,-7) 101 (28,174) 27 (7,47) 225 (62,388) -14(-4,-25)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)-0.04 (-0.02,-0.07)0.24 (0.09,0.39) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.5 (0.19,0.8)-0.03 (-0.01,-0.05)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-23 (-5,-52) 158 (-37,351) 42 (-10,93) 330 (-77,734) -22 (-5,-48)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)-14 (-3,-24) 24 (6,41) -3 (-1,-6) 53 (13,93) -9 (-2,-16)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)-113 (-561,42) 164 (-62,807) -24 (-119,9)352 (-132,1728)-55 (-273,21)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)-198 (-38,-359) 288 (55,521) -42 (-8,-75)616(117,1114)-97 (-18,-175)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-125 (3,-254) 182 (-4,367) -26 (1,-53) 389 (-8,786)-61 (1,-124)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-7 (0,-13) 67 (2,131) 18 (1,36) 145 (4,285) -10 (0,-19)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)-12 (-6,-18) 17 (9,25) -2 (-1,-4) 36 (19,54) -6 (-3,-9)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)-1.7 (-0.3,-3.2) 3.3 (0.6,5.9) -0.4 (-0.1,-0.8) 7.3(1.3,13.3) -1.3 (-0.2,-2.3)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)-0.4 (0.9,-1.7) 0.8 (-1.7,3.3) -0.1 (0.2,-0.4) 1.7(-3.8,7.3) -0.3 (0.6,-1.2)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)-0.8 (0.4,-1.9) 1.5 (-0.9,3.8) -0.2 (0.1,-0.5) 3.3(-1.9,8.4) -0.5 (0.3,-1.4)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)-0.9 (-0.4,-1.5) 1.4 (0.5,2.2) -0.2 (-0.1,-0.3) 3 (1.2,4.8) -0.5 (-0.2,-0.8)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)-2.6 (-1.5,-3.7) 5 (2.9,7.2) -0.6 (-0.4,-0.9)11.2(6.4,15.9)-1.9 (-1.1,-2.7)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)-1.3 (-0.7,-1.9) 2.3 (1.2,3.4) -0.3 (-0.2,-0.4) 5 (2.6,7.4) -0.8 (-0.4,-1.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older)-0.7 (-1.1,-0.3) 1.4 (0.6,2.2) -0.2 (-0.3,-0.1) 3.1(1.3,4.9) -0.5 (-0.8,-0.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)-0.4 (-0.1,-0.7) 0.7 (0.3,1.2) -0.1 (0,-0.2) 1.6 (0.6,2.7) -0.3 (-0.1,-0.4)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)-2.5 (-0.4,-4.5) 4.6 (0.8,8.3) -0.6 (-0.1,-1.1)10.3(1.9,18.8)-1.8 (-0.3,-3.2)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)-1126 (-953,-1299)1694(1435,1953)-231 (-196,-267)3744(3171,4316)-607 (-514,-700)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)-182 (-69,-298) 251 (97,403) -36 (-13,-60) 544 (209,876) -87 (-33,-142)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-28Table A-28- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$Endpoint CT DE DC MEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)327304000 (25085000,1008885000)112467000(8621000,346667000)33810000(2591000,104216000)50146000(3843000,154571000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)501300 (42400,1473900) 236700 (20000,695700) 72200 (6100,212200) 46100 (3900,135500)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)30300 (-7000,67700) 9800 (-2300,21900) 2200 (-500,4800) 3300 (-800,7400)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1206100 (299800,2098700) 248000 (61600,431900) 94500(23500,164500) 190900 (47200,333500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)16500 (-6200,80800) 4400 (-1600,21300) 1400 (-500,6600) 1800 (-700,8800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)28900 (5500,52900) 7600 (1400,14000) 2400 (400,4300) 3100 (600,5800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)18300 (-400,37200) 4800 (-100,9800) 1500 (0,3000) 2000(0,4000)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)11548100 (213700,54488200) 3975600 (73600,18759700) 1124500 (20800,5306000) 1664800 (30800,7857100)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)1540 (750,2450) 650 (310,1040) 210 (100,330) 170 (80,270)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)31900 (5600,58100) 8100 (1400,14800) 3400 (600,6200) 4700 (800,8500)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)9900 (-21700,41300) 2000 (-4300,8200) 800 (-1700,3300) 1500 (-3300,6300)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)27900 (-16200,71900) 6600 (-3800,16900) 2600 (-1500,6600) 4600 (-2700,11800)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)10400 (4000,16700) 1700 (700,2800) 600 (200,1000) 1300(500,2100)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)80200 (45900,114500) 18600 (10600,26500) 7500 (4300,10700) 12400 (7100,17700)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)41600 (21600,61600) 11700 (6100,17300) 4200 (2200,6300) 6500 (3400,9600)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)11900 (5100,18500) 3200 (1400,4900) 1300 (500,2000) 1900 (800,2900)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)5000 (1700,8200) 1400 (500,2300) 500 (200,800) 800 (300,1300)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)47500 (8700,86200) 12800 (2300,23200) 5400 (1000,9900) 6900 (1300,12500)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)166600 (141100,192000) 39500 (33500,45600) 17600 (14900,20300) 15800 (13400,18200)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)30200 (11600,49000) 8000 (3100,13000) 2400 (900,3900)3400 (1300,5600)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-29Table A-29- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointMDMANHNJMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)648227000 (49686000,1998100000)485515000(37209000,1496558000)52956000(4058000,163231000)1154042000(88459000,3557229000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)1303700 (110300,3832700) 480100 (40600,1411400) 53400(4500,156900) 1762000 (149000,5180100)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)59500 (-13800,132700) 41700 (-9700,93200) 4900 (-1100,11000) 101600 (-23600,226600)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1585800 (394800,2756200) 1714300 (424700,2989400) 175000 (43200,305900) 3758500 (932700,6546500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)29400 (-11000,143700) 21600 (-8100,106000) 2200 (-800,10800) 49700 (-18600,243500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)51400 (9700,94200) 37900 (7200,69400) 3900 (700,7100)87100 (16500,159500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)32500 (-600,66100) 24000 (-500,48700) 2400 (0,5000) 55000 (-1100,112000)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)23962200 (443600,113065800)17331800(320600,81776200)2074900 (38300,9791700)40500200(749900,191103700)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)4500 (2180,7160) 1990 (960,3170) 210 (100,330) 4660 (2250,7420)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)53400 (9400,97300) 43500 (7700,79400) 4000 (700,7400)96200 (17000,175300)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)12500 (-27600,52500) 13800 (-30300,57800) 1300 (-2800,5400) 30200 (-66400,126600)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)41400 (-24000,106700) 40500 (-23500,104300) 3900 (-2200,10000) 87700 (-50900,226100)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)11500 (4400,18500) 13900 (5300,22500) 1500 (600,2400)32000 (12300,51700)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)119600 (68500,170600) 112700 (64500,160800) 10600 (6100,15200) 246600 (141200,351900)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)77400 (40100,114500) 59500 (30800,88100) 6700 (3500,9900) 132000 (68500,195500)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)20500 (8700,31900) 16900 (7200,26400) 1600 (700,2500)37000 (15700,57600)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)9000 (3100,14800) 7100 (2500,11800) 800 (300,1300) 15800 (5500,26100)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)85100 (15600,154300) 64500 (11800,117200) 6000 (1100,10800) 142900 (26100,259300)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 301800 (255600,347900) 222000 (188000,256000) 21000 (17800,24200) 537100 (454900,619300)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)54600 (20900,88600) 38900 (14900,63300) 4100 (1600,6700) 92300 (35300,150000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-30Table A-30- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointNYPARIVTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1723845000(132127000,5313596000)1542445000(118222000,4754444000)114756000(8796000,353726000)15919320(1219890,49069700)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)2914100 (246400,8567000) 2097800 (177400,6167300) 120500 (10200,354200) 17880 (1510,52580)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)164700 (-38200,367500) 104400 (-24200,233000) 9200 (-2100,20400) 1080 (-250,2410)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)6072300 (1508000,10571400) 4366100 (1083300,7605900)375200 (93100,653300) 53950 (13300,94390)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)85200 (-31800,417100) 48100 (-17900,235600) 4700 (-1800,23200) 520 (-190,2550)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)149200 (28200,273300) 84200 (15900,154300) 8300 (1600,15200) 910 (170,1670)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)94300 (-1900,191800) 53200 (-1100,108300) 5200 (-100,10700) 580 (-10,1170)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)63703800 (1179200,300586600)45967700(850700,216897000)3807800 (70500,17966900) 538140 (9940,2540010)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)7950 (3850,12650) 4520 (2190,7200) 430 (210,690) 50 (20,80)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)153200 (27000,279100) 116600 (20600,212500) 9800 (1700,17900) 1300 (230,2380)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)48400 (-106400,202800) 36500 (-80100,152700) 3000 (-6700,12800) 420 (-930,1780)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)141600 (-82100,364800) 105000 (-60900,270500) 8600 (-5000,22200) 1290 (-750,3320)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)53700 (20600,86700) 31200 (12000,50400) 3000 (1200,4800) 360 (140,580)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)395500 (226500,564500) 297300 (170200,424200) 24700 (14200,35300) 3480 (1990,4970)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)214600 (111300,317800) 141200 (73300,209100) 12800 (6600,19000) 1850 (960,2730)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)59300 (25300,92300) 44100 (18800,68800) 3600 (1600,5700) 530 (220,820)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)25500 (8800,42100) 17000 (5900,28100) 1500 (500,2500)220 (80,370)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)227200 (41600,412300) 173400 (31700,314700) 14600 (2700,26500) 1930 (350,3500)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)809500 (685600,933400) 424300 (359400,489300) 41000 (34800,47300) 4590 (3880,5290)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)156400 (59900,254000) 88400 (33800,143600) 8400 (3200,13600) 960 (370,1570)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-31Table A-31- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointALGAKYMSMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-9492000 (-29256000,-727263)-28128000 (-86701000,-2155281)762717000(58475000,2350996992)12530000(960000,38623240)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)-28440 (-83610,-2400) -89900 (-264340,-7600) 1597300(135080,4695390) 45890 (3880,134930)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-690 (-1540,160) -3540 (-7920,810) 63130 (-14710,140610) 1240 (-290,2780)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)57700 (14460,99820) 149220 (37450,257850) 2072160 (517930,3591950) 63670 (15770,111080)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)990 (-370,4820) 3730 (-1390,18220) 36580 (-13670,178920) 1360 (-510,6690)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1730 (330,3170) 6540 (1240,11970) 64120 (12140,117430) 2390 (450,4380)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1090 (-20,2220) 4130 (-80,8390) 40520 (-810,82370) 1510 (-30,3070)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-275500 (-1300970,-5080) -1183860 (-5589820,-21840)25510330(473020,120382900)418780 (7730,1976740)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)150 (70,240) 580 (280,920) 5690 (2760,9060) 210 (100,330)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)2040 (360,3710) 4640 (820,8450) 70760 (12490,128840) 2120 (370,3870)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)490 (-1070,2030) 1110 (-2450,4660) 17060 (-37560,71400) 510 (-1110,2120)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)1630 (-950,4200) 3780 (-2200,9740) 57640 (-33460,148470) 1700 (-990,4390)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)370 (140,590) 1360 (520,2190) 13870 (5340,22390) 470 (180,770)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)4640 (2660,6620) 10670 (6110,15220) 162040 (92810,231210) 4840 (2770,6910)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)2590 (1340,3830) 8040 (4170,11910) 92040 (47760,136290) 2990 (1550,4430)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)800 (340,1240) 1840 (780,2860) 28070 (11970,43720) 830(350,1290)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)300 (100,500) 910 (320,1510) 10850 (3770,17910) 340 (120,570)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)3220 (590,5840) 7320 (1340,13260) 111910 (20490,202940) 3360 (610,6100)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)7200 (6100,8300) 30400 (25800,35100) 271500 (230000,313000) 8300 (7000,9600)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)1800 (700,3000) 6800 (2600,11000) 67700 (26000,109700) 2600 (1000,4200)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-32Table A-32- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointNCSCTNVAWVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)204749000 (15690000,631119104)64308000(4928000,198222752)358900000(27505000,1106278400)386244000(29600000,1190563328)283661000 (21744000,874359488)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)506690 (42850,1489720) 131040 (11080,385290) 885310 (74870,2602760) 732780 (61970,2154370) 451950 (38220,1328600)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)18720 (-4320,41870) 5040 (-1160,11280) 30870 (-7150,68970) 37020 (-8570,82740) 16470 (-3830,36740)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)707840 (175020,1236020) 236230 (58560,411750) 1110330(276130,1931180) 1269750 (315280,2210880) 660130 (163920,1149370)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)13780 (-5140,67550) 4070 (-1520,19960) 21010 (-7840,102850) 23920 (-8930,117140) 8850 (-3300,43350)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)24130 (4560,44200) 7130 (1350,13070) 36800 (6970,67410) 41900 (7930,76750) 15510 (2930,28400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)15260 (-300,31040) 4510 (-90,9170) 23260 (-460,47310)26490 (-530,53870) 9800 (-200,19930)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)7098860 (131110,33505930) 2037080 (37610,9615540)12032310(222480,56774220)15051290(278240,71022470)8008610 (148310,37789770)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)2100 (1010,3340) 630 (300,1000) 3220 (1560,5120) 3700(1790,5900) 1360 (660,2170)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)24650 (4350,44930) 8160 (1440,14870) 37630 (6640,68540) 42170 (7440,76840) 23980 (4230,43680)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)5820 (-12770,24370) 1940 (-4260,8130) 9010 (-19820,37740) 10040 (-22050,42020) 5760 (-12650,24110)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)19340 (-11210,49860) 6510 (-3780,16780) 30490 (-17680,78560) 33720 (-19550,86890) 19350 (-11220,49870)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)5010 (1920,8090) 1540 (590,2480) 7790 (2990,12570) 9280 (3570,14980) 3570 (1370,5760)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)55520 (31790,79240) 18550 (10620,26470) 86170 (49350,122970) 95850 (54880,136790) 54700 (31320,78060)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)31750 (16470,47030) 10640 (5520,15760) 51670 (26810,76520) 61680 (32000,91340) 26090 (13540,38640)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)9470 (4040,14760) 3170 (1350,4940) 14820 (6320,23080)16510 (7040,25730) 9390 (4000,14630)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)3660 (1270,6050) 1230 (430,2040) 5970 (2070,9860) 7100(2470,11740) 3090 (1070,5100)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)39170 (7160,71130) 12930 (2360,23470) 59370 (10860,107740) 66710 (12200,121090) 37970 (6950,68920)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)103300 (87500,119100) 30100 (25500,34700) 157700 (133500,181800) 226700 (192000,261300) 67800 (57400,78200)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)25000 (9500,40700) 7600 (2900,12300) 38700 (14800,62800) 44400 (17000,72100) 16300 (6200,26500)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-33Table A-33- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointILINMIOHWIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-26290000 (-81022000,-2011000)634458000(48636000,1955656000)172114000(13190000,530526000)1417907000(108688000,4370563000)-91287000 (-281380000,-6995000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)-270000 (-794000,-22800) 1524000 (128900,4480300) 434300 (36700,1276900) 3141600 (265700,9235400) -189500(-557300,-16000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-8700 (-19500,2000) 59100 (-13800,131900) 15600 (-3600,34900) 123500 (-28700,275500) -8100 (-18100,1900)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)-904900 (-1612800,-217000) 1570000 (393200,2717500) -222500 (-403700,-51900) 3525600 (877700,6127600) -604100 (-1064800,-147300)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-17700 (-87300,6600) 25700 (-9600,125500) -3700 (-18500,1400) 54900 (-20500,268900) -8600 (-42400,3200)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-30900 (-56700,-5800) 45000 (8500,82400) -6500 (-11900,-1200) 96200 (18200,176300) -15100 (-27700,-2900)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)-19600 (-39900,400) 28400 (-600,57800) -4100 (-8400,100) 60800 (-1200,123700) -9600 (-19500,200)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-2233300 (-10562400,-41000)22465400(416200,106008700)6145400 (113600,28999600)48857200(904900,230540900)-3302600 (-15594300,-60900)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)-3400 (-5400,-1600) 4600 (2200,7300) -700 (-1100,-300) 10100 (4900,16000) -1600 (-2600,-800)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)-26600 (-48500,-4700) 49600 (8800,90300) -6300 (-11600,-1100) 111400 (19700,203000) -19200 (-35000,-3400)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)-6300 (-26300,13600) 12000 (-26400,50100) -1500 (-6400,3300) 26600 (-58600,111500) -4500 (-19000,9900)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)-19500 (-50400,11200) 38300 (-22200,98600) -4800 (-12400,2800) 84200 (-48900,217100) -14200 (-36600,8200)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)-7300 (-11900,-2800) 10600 (4100,17100) -1500 (-2400,-600) 23500 (9000,37900) -3800 (-6100,-1400)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)-55400 (-79100,-31700) 106900 (61200,152600) -13400 (-19200,-7700) 237100 (135800,338400) -40200 (-57400,-23000)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)-29900 (-44300,-15500) 51900 (27000,76900) -6900 (-10300,-3600) 114100 (59200,169000) -18200 (-27000,-9500)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)-9800 (-15300,-4200) 19200 (8200,29800) -2400 (-3700,-1000) 42200 (18000,65700) -7100 (-11100,-3000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)-4500 (-7500,-1600) 7800 (2700,13000) -1100 (-1800,-400) 17400 (6000,28700) -2800 (-4700,-1000)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)-44300 (-80700,-8000) 82300 (15100,149300) -10600 (-19400,-1900) 185300 (33900,336200) -31900 (-58100,-5800)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)-154000 (-178000,-131000) 207000 (175000,239000) -32000 (-37000,-27000) 468000 (396000,539000) -74000 (-86000,-63000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)-34000 (-56000,-13000) 47000 (18000,76000) -7000 (-11000,-2000) 102000 (39000,165000) -16000 (-27000,-6000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-34Table A-34- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI)Endpoint CT DE DC ME MD MAMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)14 (3.9,24.5) 2 (0.5,3.4) 1 (0.3,1.7) 6 (1.5,9.6) 14 (3.9,24.8) 24 (6.6,41.3)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.006 (0.002,0.009) 0.029 (0.011,0.047) 0.024(0.01,0.039)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)22.3 (-5.2,49.6) 3 (-0.7,6.6) 1 (-0.2,2.3) 6.3 (-1.5,14) 22.8 (-5.3,50.7) 35.6 (-8.3,79.4)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)4.4 (1.1,7.7) 0.5 (0.1,0.9) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 1.7 (0.4,3) 3.6 (0.9,6.3) 7.5 (1.8,13.1)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)25 (-9.3,123.1) 3.7 (-1.4,18.4) 1.4 (-0.5,6.9) 7.1(-2.6,34.8) 28 (-10.5,138) 40.5 (-15.1,199.5)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)43.7 (8.3,79.1) 6.5 (1.2,11.9) 2.5 (0.5,4.4) 12.4 (2.3,22.4) 49 (9.3,88.7) 70.8 (13.5,128.2)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)27.7 (-0.6,55.9) 4.1 (-0.1,8.4) 1.6 (0,3.1) 7.8 (-0.2,15.8) 31 (-0.6,62.6) 44.8 (-0.9,90.5)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)9.33 (0.26,18.4) 1.33 (0.04,2.62) 0.59 (0.02,1.17)3.44 (0.1,6.79) 10.14 (0.28,19.99) 16.12 (0.45,31.78)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)1.32 (0.67,1.96) 0.32 (0.16,0.47) 0.12 (0.06,0.18)0.37 (0.19,0.56) 2.43 (1.24,3.62) 2.1 (1.07,3.13)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults65 years and older)0.49 (0.09,0.89) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.04 (0.01,0.07)0.18 (0.03,0.33) 0.51 (0.09,0.93) 0.8 (0.14,1.47)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.15 (-0.33,0.63) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.01 (-0.02,0.03) 0.06 (-0.13,0.25) 0.12 (-0.26,0.51) 0.26 (-0.56,1.07)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.25 (-0.15,0.65) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.02 (-0.01,0.04) 0.11 (-0.06,0.27) 0.23 (-0.14,0.61) 0.44 (-0.26,1.14)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)0.31 (0.12,0.5) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.1(0.04,0.16) 0.22 (0.08,0.35) 0.51 (0.2,0.83)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.88 (0.51,1.26) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.06 (0.03,0.08)0.35 (0.2,0.5) 0.82 (0.47,1.18) 1.5 (0.86,2.14)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.43 (0.22,0.63) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.17 (0.09,0.25) 0.5 (0.26,0.74) 0.75 (0.39,1.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.21 (0.09,0.32) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.02)0.08 (0.04,0.13) 0.22 (0.09,0.35) 0.35 (0.15,0.55)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.11 (0.04,0.18) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.04 (0.02,0.07) 0.12 (0.04,0.21) 0.19 (0.07,0.31)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.62 (0.11,1.12) 0.09 (0.02,0.17) 0.05 (0.01,0.09)0.23 (0.04,0.41) 0.69 (0.13,1.26) 1.02 (0.19,1.85)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)255 (215.5,293.6) 41 (34.4,46.9) 19 (16.3,22.2) 86(72.8,99.2) 311 (263,358.2) 436 (369,502.6)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)38 (14.7,62.3) 6 (2.2,9.4) 2 (0.8,3.4) 11 (4.3,18)44 (16.8,71.2) 61 (23.3,98.8)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-35Table A-35- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint NH NJ NY PA RI VTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)4 (1.1,6.8) 33 (9,56.3) 64 (17.6,110.7) 41 (11.3,71.3) 4 (1.1,7.2) 2 (0.6,3.6)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.004 (0.002,0.006) 0.051 (0.02,0.082) 0.107 (0.042,0.172) 0.059 (0.023,0.094) 0.005 (0.002,0.008) 0.002 (0.001,0.004)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)6 (-1.4,13.3) 50.8 (-11.8,113.3) 102.5 (-23.8,228.6) 49.7 (-11.5,110.7) 5.8 (-1.3,12.9) 2.3 (-0.5,5.1)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)1.3 (0.3,2.2) 9.7 (2.4,17.1) 19.9 (4.9,34.9) 10.9 (2.7,19) 1.2 (0.3,2.2) 0.7 (0.2,1.2)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)6.6 (-2.5,32.8) 54.6 (-20.4,269) 115.6 (-43.2,569.4) 51.7 (-19.4,254.9) 6.7 (-2.5,32.9) 2.8 (-1,13.6)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)11.6 (2.2,21.1) 95.5 (18.1,172.9) 202.2 (38.4,366)90.6 (17.2,163.9) 11.7 (2.2,21.1) 4.8 (0.9,8.7)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)7.4 (-0.1,14.9) 60.4 (-1.2,122.1) 127.9 (-2.6,258.4) 57.3 (-1.1,115.7) 7.4 (-0.1,14.9) 3.1 (-0.1,6.2)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)2.83 (0.08,5.59) 22.27 (0.62,43.9) 43.8 (1.21,86.34) 23.63 (0.66,46.59) 2.61 (0.07,5.14) 1.28 (0.04,2.53)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)0.35 (0.18,0.53) 2.9 (1.48,4.32) 6.06 (3.08,9.02) 2.73 (1.39,4.06) 0.35 (0.18,0.51) 0.14 (0.07,0.21)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)0.13 (0.02,0.23) 1.04 (0.18,1.89) 2.13 (0.38,3.89)1.23 (0.22,2.24) 0.14 (0.02,0.25) 0.07 (0.01,0.13)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.04 (-0.09,0.17) 0.33 (-0.72,1.37) 0.68 (-1.48,2.83) 0.38 (-0.84,1.61) 0.04 (-0.09,0.18) 0.02 (-0.05,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease(Adults 65 years and older)0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.56 (-0.33,1.45) 1.16 (-0.67,3)0.65 (-0.38,1.68) 0.07 (-0.04,0.18) 0.04 (-0.02,0.11)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under65 years)0.09 (0.03,0.14) 0.7 (0.27,1.13) 1.44 (0.55,2.33) 0.66 (0.25,1.07) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) 0.04 (0.01,0.06)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.24 (0.14,0.35) 1.92 (1.1,2.74) 3.96 (2.27,5.66) 2.25 (1.29,3.22) 0.25 (0.14,0.36) 0.14 (0.08,0.2)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64years)0.14 (0.07,0.21) 0.99 (0.51,1.47) 2 (1.04,2.97) 1.02 (0.53,1.5) 0.12 (0.06,0.18) 0.07 (0.04,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease(Adults 65 years and older)0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.45 (0.19,0.7) 0.93 (0.4,1.45) 0.53 (0.22,0.82) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.03 (0.01,0.05)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease(Adults 18-64 years)0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.25 (0.09,0.42) 0.51 (0.18,0.84)0.26 (0.09,0.43) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 yearsand above)0.16 (0.03,0.29) 1.31 (0.24,2.39) 2.7 (0.49,4.9) 1.56 (0.28,2.83) 0.18 (0.03,0.32) 0.09 (0.02,0.17)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)76 (64.3,87.6) 592 (501,682.4) 1213 (1026.8,1398.8)562 (476.2,648.7) 71 (60,81.7) 34 (28.6,39)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)10 (4,16.9) 86 (32.6,138.4) 178 (68,288.3) 80 (30.5,129.4) 10 (3.8,16) 4 (1.6,6.9)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-36Table A-36- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1 (0.3,1.7) 2.9 (0.8,5.1) 1.5 (0.4,2.6) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 7.5 (2,12.9)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.003 (0.001,0.004) 0.009 (0.003,0.014) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.001 (0,0.001) 0.019 (0.007,0.03)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1.3 (-0.3,3) 5.9 (-1.4,13.2) 2.1 (-0.5,4.7) 0.3 (-0.1,0.7) 11.8 (-2.7,26.3)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.32 (0.08,0.56) 1.04 (0.26,1.83) 0.37 (0.09,0.64)0.05 (0.01,0.09) 2.31 (0.57,4.05)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)2.32 (-0.87,11.44) 10.62 (-3.97,52.33) 2.71 (-1.02,13.38) 0.46 (-0.17,2.26) 19.65 (-7.35,96.87)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)4.06 (0.77,7.35) 18.58 (3.53,33.63) 4.75 (0.9,8.6)0.8 (0.15,1.45) 34.39 (6.53,62.25)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)2.57 (-0.05,5.19) 11.75 (-0.24,23.74) 3 (-0.06,6.07) 0.51 (-0.01,1.02) 21.76 (-0.44,43.95)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.59 (0.02,1.17) 2.26 (0.06,4.47) 0.95 (0.03,1.88)0.11 (0,0.23) 4.87 (0.14,9.61)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.93 (0.47,1.38) 0.24 (0.12,0.36) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 1.69 (0.86,2.52)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.14 (0.02,0.25) 0.05 (0.01,0.1) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.34 (0.06,0.62)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.03 (-0.07,0.14) 0.01 (-0.03,0.05) 0 (0,0.01) 0.08 (-0.18,0.34)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0.07 (-0.04,0.17) 0.03 (-0.01,0.07) 0 (0,0.01) 0.16 (-0.09,0.41)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.08 (0.03,0.12) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0 (0,0.01) 0.14 (0.05,0.23)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.23 (0.13,0.32) 0.09 (0.05,0.12)0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.55 (0.32,0.79)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.16 (0.08,0.23) 0.05 (0.02,0.07)0.01 (0,0.01) 0.3 (0.16,0.45)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.06 (0.03,0.1) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0(0,0.01) 0.15 (0.06,0.23)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) 0.07 (0.03,0.12)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.06 (0.01,0.12) 0.19 (0.03,0.34) 0.07 (0.01,0.13)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.46 (0.08,0.84)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)24.3 (20.6,28) 108.8 (92.1,125.5) 29.2 (24.7,33.6)4.4 (3.7,5) 204.3 (173,235.7)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)3.6 (1.4,5.9) 16.5 (6.3,26.8) 4.2 (1.6,6.9) 0.7 (0.3,1.2) 29.9 (11.4,48.4)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-37Table A-37- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)2.9 (0.8,5) 1.7 (0.5,2.9) 10.2 (2.8,17.6) 2.5 (0.7,4.3)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.006 (0.002,0.009) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.021 (0.008,0.034) 0.004 (0.002,0.006)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)3.8 (-0.9,8.5) 2.2 (-0.5,4.9) 17.5 (-4,39) 2.6 (-0.6,5.9)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.96 (0.24,1.69) 0.5 (0.12,0.87) 2.96 (0.73,5.19) 0.53 (0.13,0.93)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)6.86 (-2.57,33.83) 3.53 (-1.32,17.39) 24.16 (-9.04,119.08) 3.15 (-1.18,15.53)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)12.01 (2.28,21.74) 6.17 (1.17,11.17) 42.28 (8.03,76.53) 5.52 (1.05,9.99)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)7.6 (-0.15,15.35) 3.9 (-0.08,7.89) 26.75 (-0.54,54.02) 3.49 (-0.07,7.05)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)1.73 (0.05,3.42) 0.99 (0.03,1.96) 7.65 (0.21,15.09)1.37 (0.04,2.7)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)0.6 (0.3,0.89) 0.3 (0.16,0.45) 2.12 (1.08,3.15) 0.27 (0.14,0.41)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.14 (0.03,0.26) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.41 (0.07,0.76)0.08 (0.01,0.15)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.03 (-0.07,0.14) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.1 (-0.22,0.41) 0.02 (-0.04,0.08)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.07 (-0.04,0.17) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.2 (-0.11,0.5)0.04 (-0.02,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.19 (0.07,0.3) 0.03 (0.01,0.04)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.23 (0.13,0.33) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.68 (0.39,0.97)0.14 (0.08,0.19)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.12 (0.06,0.18) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.42 (0.22,0.62)0.06 (0.03,0.09)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.06 (0.03,0.1) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.18 (0.08,0.29) 0.04 (0.02,0.06)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.1 (0.04,0.17) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.19 (0.04,0.35) 0.1 (0.02,0.18) 0.56 (0.1,1.02) 0.11 (0.02,0.2)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)73.9 (62.6,85.3) 38 (32.2,43.9) 268.9 (227.7,310.2)36.4 (30.8,42)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)10.7 (4.1,17.3) 5.5 (2.1,8.9) 37.8 (14.4,61.3) 4.9(1.9,7.9)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-38Table A-38- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)1.7 (0.5,2.9) 1.6 (0.4,2.8) 1.3 (0.4,2.3) 6.7 (1.8,11.5) 0.3 (0.1,0.5)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.014 (0.005,0.022) 0.001 (0,0.001)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)2.8 (-0.6,6.2) 2.6 (-0.6,5.8) 2.1 (-0.5,4.7) 9.3 (-2.2,20.9) 0.5 (-0.1,1)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)0.35 (0.08,0.61) 0.42 (0.1,0.74) 0.35 (0.09,0.62) 1.83 (0.45,3.21) 0.05 (0.01,0.09)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)2.4 (-0.9,11.6) 2.9 (-1.1,14.5) 2.3 (-0.9,11.5) 11.3 (-4.2,55.5) 0.3 (-0.1,1.5)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)4.1 (0.8,7.4) 5.1 (1,9.3) 4.1 (0.8,7.4) 19.7 (3.7,35.7) 0.5 (0.1,1)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)2.6 (-0.1,5.3) 3.2 (-0.1,6.6) 2.6 (-0.1,5.2) 12.5 (-0.2,25.2) 0.3 (0,0.7)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)1.15 (0.03,2.27) 1.07 (0.03,2.11) 0.9 (0.02,1.77) 4.16 (0.12,8.2) 0.21 (0.01,0.41)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)0.24 (0.12,0.36) 0.3 (0.15,0.45) 0.24 (0.12,0.36) 1.17 (0.59,1.74) 0.03 (0.02,0.05)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.06 (0.01,0.1) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.25 (0.04,0.46) 0.01 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.01 (-0.03,0.06) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.06 (-0.13,0.25) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.03 (-0.01,0.07) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.11 (-0.06,0.29) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.1 (0.04,0.16) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.09 (0.05,0.12) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.38 (0.22,0.54) 0.01 (0.01,0.01)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.03 (0.02,0.05)0.16 (0.08,0.24) 0 (0,0.01)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.11 (0.05,0.17) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.05 (0.02,0.09) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.07 (0.01,0.12) 0.08 (0.01,0.15) 0.07 (0.01,0.12)0.36 (0.06,0.65) 0.01 (0,0.02)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)24.4 (20.7,28.2) 29.9 (25.3,34.5) 24.7 (20.9,28.4)120.2 (101.7,138.6) 3.3 (2.8,3.9)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)3.6 (1.4,5.9) 4.6 (1.7,7.4) 3.7 (1.4,5.9) 17.7 (6.7,28.6) 0.5 (0.2,0.8)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-39Table A-39- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointCTDEDCMEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)89620000(6868000,276244000)12593000(965000,38817000)6041000(463000,18622000)35205000(2698000,108517000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)137600 (11640,404550) 26400 (2230,77510) 13000 (1100,38130) 34400 (2910,101040)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)8300 (-1900,18600) 1100 (-300,2500) 400 (-100,900) 2400 (-500,5300)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)288000 (70800,504700) 33600 (8200,58800) 15500 (3800,27200) 114200 (28100,200000)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)3900 (-1500,19200) 600 (-200,2900) 200 (-100,1100) 1100 (-400,5400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)6800 (1300,12500) 1000 (200,1900) 400 (100,700) 1900 (400,3500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)4300 (-90,8790) 600 (-10,1320) 200 (0,490) 1200 (-20,2490)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)3149000 (58000,14863000) 448000 (8000,2115000) 200000(4000,944000)1162000(21000,5484000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)366 (176,584) 88 (42,140) 34 (17,55) 104 (50,166)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)7526 (1326,13724) 1080 (190,1969) 550 (97,1004) 2754 (485,5022)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)2300 (-5100,9750) 300 (-570,1100) 100 (-280,540) 900 (-1960,3750)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)6600 (-3810,16950) 900 (-510,2250) 400 (-240,1080) 2700 (-1580,7020)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)2400 (940,3940) 200 (90,380) 100 (40,160) 800 (300,1240)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)18900 (10810,26960) 2500 (1420,3530) 1200 (700,1740) 7400 (4210,10500)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)9800 (5090,14550) 1600 (810,2320) 700 (360,1020) 3900(2030,5790)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)2800 (1190,4360) 400 (180,660) 200 (90,330) 1100 (480,1740)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)1200 (410,1940) 200 (60,300) 100 (30,130) 500 (160,780)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)11200 (2050,20360) 1700 (310,3090) 900 (160,1600) 4100(740,7390)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)39000 (33000,45000) 5000 (4000,6000) 3000 (2000,3000)9000 (8000,11000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)7000 (3000,12000) 1000 (0,2000) 0 (0,1000) 2000 (1000,3000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-40Table A-40- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointMDMANHNJMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)90556000(6939000,279129000)150694000(11548000,464498000)24902000(1908000,76758000)205688000(15762000,634012000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)183500 (15520,539640) 152900 (12930,449650) 24500 (2070,71920) 322300 (27260,947610)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)8500 (-2000,19000) 13300 (-3100,29800) 2200 (-500,5000) 19000 (-4400,42500)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)237900 (58500,417000) 493600 (121400,865100) 84500 (20800,148200)642500(158000,1126100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)4400 (-1600,21500) 6300 (-2400,31000) 1000 (-400,5100) 8500 (-3200,41900)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)7700 (1400,14000) 11100 (2100,20300) 1800 (300,3300) 14900 (2800,27400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)4800 (-100,9850) 7000 (-140,14250) 1100 (-20,2340) 9400 (-190,19220)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)3422000 (63000,16151000)5440000(100000,25676000)956000(18000,4514000)7515000(139000,35469000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)677 (326,1080) 584 (282,932) 98 (47,157) 806 (389,1286)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)7866 (1386,14345) 12395 (2183,22603) 1959 (345,3573) 16037 (2825,29245)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)1900 (-4050,7750) 3900 (-8600,16440) 600 (-1380,2630)5000 (-11050,21140)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)6100 (-3540,15750) 11500 (-6660,29660) 1900 (-1090,4830) 14700 (-8490,37790)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)1700 (660,2770) 4000 (1550,6520) 700 (270,1130) 5500 (2120,8910)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)17600 (10080,25130) 32000 (18340,45730) 5100 (2940,7340) 41100 (23540,58710)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)11500 (5970,17040) 17100 (8860,25300) 3200 (1650,4710) 22800 (11810,33740)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)3000 (1280,4700) 4800 (2050,7510) 800 (330,1210) 6200(2630,9610)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)1300 (460,2210) 2000 (710,3380) 400 (130,630) 2700 (940,4500)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)12500 (2290,22760) 18400 (3360,33400) 2900 (530,5270)23800 (4350,43310)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)45000 (38000,52000) 64000 (54000,74000) 10000 (8000,11000) 92000 (78000,106000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)8000 (3000,13000) 11000 (4000,19000) 2000 (1000,3000)16000 (6000,26000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-41Table A-41- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNYPARIVTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)404392000(30989000,1246498000)260371000(19952000,802567000)26396000(2023000,81363000)12996000(996000,40058000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)673700 (56970,1980690) 368500 (31160,1083470) 30200 (2560,88850) 14500 (1220,42500)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)38300 (-8900,85800) 18600 (-4300,41600) 2200 (-500,4800) 900 (-200,1900)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1312500 (322800,2300300)715100(176000,1252600)81600 (20100,143000) 46100 (11300,80700)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)18100 (-6700,88600) 8100 (-3000,39700) 1000 (-400,5100) 400 (-200,2100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)31600 (6000,57900) 14200 (2700,25900) 1800 (300,3300)800 (100,1400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)20000 (-400,40680) 9000 (-180,18220) 1200 (-20,2350) 500 (-10,970)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)14780000(273000,69762000)7976000(147000,37644000)880000(16000,4151000)433000 (8000,2044000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)1685 (813,2688) 759 (366,1211) 96 (46,153) 40 (19,64)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)32758 (5771,59738) 18771 (3307,34229) 2113 (372,3853)1120 (197,2042)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)10400 (-22680,43370) 5900 (-12880,24620) 700 (-1430,2740) 400 (-800,1520)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)30200 (-17500,77930) 16900 (-9810,43660) 1800 (-1070,4770) 1100 (-640,2850)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)11300 (4350,18290) 5200 (1990,8380) 700 (250,1060) 300(120,490)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)84500 (48340,120560) 47900 (27410,68350) 5300 (3040,7590) 3000 (1710,4260)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)45800 (23770,67910) 23200 (12020,34330) 2800 (1430,4080) 1600 (810,2310)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)12700 (5390,19720) 7100 (3030,11080) 800 (330,1220) 500 (190,710)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)5500 (1890,9020) 2800 (970,4610) 300 (110,540) 200 (70,310)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)48600 (8870,88310) 27900 (5100,50730) 3200 (580,5720)1700 (300,3010)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)170000 (144000,196000) 70000 (59000,81000) 9000 (8000,10000) 4000 (3000,4000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)33000 (13000,54000) 15000 (6000,24000) 2000 (1000,3000) 1000 (0,1000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-42Table A-42- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointALGAKYMSMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)6387600(489500,19689200)18476400(1415800,56951300)9660800(740300,29778300)1212800(92900,3738400)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)15900 (1300,46800) 55100 (4700,161900) 19600 (1700,57800) 4000 (300,11800)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)500 (-120,1120) 2210 (-510,4940) 790 (-180,1780) 110 (-30,250)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)20900 (5100,36700) 68800 (16900,120600) 24200 (6000,42500) 3500 (800,6100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)360 (-140,1780) 1660 (-620,8140) 420 (-160,2080) 70 (-30,350)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)630 (120,1160) 2900 (550,5320) 740 (140,1360) 130 (20,230)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)400 (-10,820) 1840 (-40,3740) 470 (-10,960) 80 (0,160)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)200100 (3700,944800) 764200 (14100,3607500)320900(5900,1514900)38700 (700,182700)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)60 (30,90) 260 (120,410) 70 (30,110) 10 (10,20)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)720 (130,1310) 2100 (370,3830) 800 (140,1470) 120 (20,210)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)170 (-370,710) 510 (-1110,2120) 190 (-430,810) 30 (-60,120)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)570 (-330,1470) 1720 (-990,4430) 660 (-380,1700) 90 (-50,240)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)130 (50,220) 600 (230,970) 160 (60,260) 20 (10,40)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)1630 (930,2320) 4830 (2760,6890) 1850 (1060,2640) 260(150,380)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)930 (480,1370) 3580 (1860,5300) 1080 (560,1590) 160 (80,230)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)280 (120,430) 830 (350,1300) 320 (140,500) 40 (20,70)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)110 (40,180) 410 (140,670) 130 (40,210) 20 (10,30)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)1140 (210,2060) 3310 (600,6020) 1270 (230,2310) 190 (30,340)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)2700 (2200,3100) 13200 (11200,15300) 3200 (2700,3700)400 (400,500)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)700 (300,1100) 3100 (1200,5000) 800 (300,1300) 100 (100,200)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-43Table A-43- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNCSCTNVAWVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)46962100(3598600,144755400)18355000(1406500,56577300)10512100(805500,32402300)64309600(4927900,198227400)15553000(1191800,47940500)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)119100 (10100,350300) 36500 (3100,107400) 20500 (1700,60300) 134800 (11400,396300) 25100 (2100,73800)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)4410 (-1020,9870) 1420 (-330,3170) 820 (-190,1830) 6530 (-1510,14620) 980 (-230,2200)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)152300 (37400,267100) 63500 (15600,111300) 32600 (8000,57200) 195200 (48000,342300) 35100 (8600,61600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)3070 (-1140,15080) 1070 (-400,5260) 550 (-210,2710) 3770 (-1410,18530) 490 (-180,2420)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)5370 (1020,9850) 1880 (350,3440) 960 (180,1770) 6610 (1250,12110) 860 (160,1580)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)3400 (-70,6920) 1190 (-20,2420) 610 (-10,1240) 4180 (-80,8510) 550 (-10,1110)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)1644800 (30400,7764900) 584500 (10800,2759400)335100(6200,1582100)2582300(47700,12189700)461400(8500,2178200)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)470 (230,750) 170 (80,260) 80 (40,140) 590 (280,940) 80(40,120)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)5180 (910,9450) 2180 (380,3970) 1120 (200,2040) 6350 (1120,11580) 1250 (220,2270)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)1230 (-2690,5140) 520 (-1140,2170) 270 (-590,1120) 1510 (-3310,6330) 300 (-660,1260)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)4090 (-2370,10560) 1740 (-1010,4480) 900 (-520,2320) 5080 (-2940,13090) 1010 (-590,2610)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)1110 (430,1800) 410 (160,660) 210 (80,340) 1450 (560,2350) 200 (80,320)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)11710 (6700,16710) 4950 (2830,7060) 2550 (1460,3640) 14420 (8250,20580) 2860 (1630,4080)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)6930 (3590,10270) 2820 (1460,4170) 1440 (750,2140) 9490 (4920,14060) 1420 (740,2100)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)2000 (850,3120) 850 (360,1320) 440 (190,680) 2490 (1060,3880) 490 (210,760)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)800 (280,1320) 330 (110,540) 170 (60,280) 1090 (380,1800) 170 (60,280)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)8220 (1500,14940) 3450 (630,6270) 1770 (320,3210) 10040 (1830,18250) 1970 (360,3580)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)23000 (19400,26500) 8000 (6800,9200) 4200 (3600,4900)35400 (30000,40800) 3700 (3200,4300)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)5600 (2100,9100) 2000 (800,3300) 1000 (400,1700) 7100(2700,11500) 900 (300,1500)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-44Table A-44- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointILINMIOHWIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)10753000(824000,33145000)10145000(777000,31269000)8307000(637000,25605000)42011000(3219000,129493000)1838000(141000,5665000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)27950 (2360,82180) 25400 (2150,74680) 20020 (1690,58870) 85560 (7240,251560) 3910 (330,11490)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1040 (-240,2330) 970 (-220,2170) 790 (-180,1760) 3500(-810,7830) 170 (-40,390)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)22780 (5590,39950) 27910 (6860,48960) 23270 (5720,40820) 120760 (29670,211780) 3230 (790,5660)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)370 (-140,1800) 460 (-170,2250) 360 (-140,1780) 1760 (-660,8640) 50 (-20,230)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)640 (120,1180) 800 (150,1470) 640 (120,1170) 3080 (580,5650) 80 (20,150)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)410 (-10,830) 510 (-10,1030) 400 (-10,820) 1950 (-40,3970) 50 (0,110)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)388550 (7170,1834300) 361150 (6670,1704940)303120(5590,1431020)1403610(25910,6626160)69640 (1290,328790)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)70 (30,110) 80 (40,130) 70 (30,110) 320 (160,520) 10 (0,10)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)730 (130,1340) 860 (150,1570) 730 (130,1330) 3830 (680,6990) 100 (20,190)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)170 (-380,720) 210 (-450,870) 170 (-380,720) 910 (-2000,3830) 20 (-50,100)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)530 (-310,1380) 660 (-380,1690) 540 (-310,1400) 2870 (-1660,7390) 80 (-40,200)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)150 (60,250) 190 (70,310) 160 (60,250) 760 (290,1220) 20 (10,30)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)1530 (870,2180) 1840 (1050,2620) 1530 (880,2190) 8100(4640,11570) 220 (120,310)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)700 (360,1040) 890 (460,1320) 740 (380,1090) 3720 (1930,5510) 100 (50,150)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)270 (110,420) 330 (140,510) 270 (120,420) 1440 (610,2240) 40 (20,60)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)110 (40,180) 140 (50,230) 110 (40,190) 570 (200,940) 20(10,30)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)1220 (220,2220) 1430 (260,2600) 1210 (220,2200) 6370 (1160,11570) 170 (30,310)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)3350 (2830,3860) 3650 (3090,4210) 3410 (2890,3930) 15010 (12700,17310) 410 (350,470)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)680 (260,1110) 850 (320,1390) 690 (260,1120) 3310 (1260,5400) 90 (30,150)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-45Table A-45- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI)Endpoint CT DE DC ME MD MAMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)98 (27,169) 29 (8,49) 10 (3,17) 36 (10,63) 154 (42,265) 191 (53,329)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.02 (0.01,0.03)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.31 (0.12,0.5) 0.19 (0.08,0.31)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)152 (-36,338) 41 (-10,91) 11 (-3,24) 40 (-9,90) 236(-55,523) 282 (-66,625)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)32 (8,56) 6 (1,10) 2 (1,4) 11 (3,20) 35 (9,61) 59 (15,103)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)185 (-69,910) 44 (-16,216) 14 (-5,70) 46 (-17,226)273 (-102,1340) 324 (-122,1594)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)325 (62,587) 77 (15,139) 25 (5,45) 80 (15,146) 478(91,864) 568 (108,1028)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)205 (-4.1,413.9) 49 (-1,98.2) 16 (-0.3,31.8) 51 (-1,102.6) 302 (-6,609.2) 359 (-7.2,724.8)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)64 (1.8,126.5) 19 (0.5,36.6) 6 (0.2,12.2) 22 (0.6,44.1) 106 (2.9,207.7) 129 (3.6,253.7)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsandyounger)10 (5,14.4) 4 (1.9,5.5) 1 (0.6,1.8) 2 (1.2,3.6) 23(12,34.8) 17 (8.5,24.8)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)3.6 (0.6,6.6) 0.9 (0.2,1.5) 0.4 (0.1,0.7) 1.2 (0.2,2.2) 5 (0.9,9.2) 6.5 (1.1,11.8)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)1.1 (-2.5,4.7) 0.2 (-0.5,0.9) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 0.4 (-0.9,1.6) 1.2 (-2.6,5) 2 (-4.5,8.6)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)1.9 (-1.1,4.8) 0.4 (-0.2,1) 0.2 (-0.1,0.4) 0.7 (-0.4,1.8) 2.3 (-1.3,6) 3.6 (-2.1,9.1)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)2.3 (0.9,3.7) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.7 (0.3,1.1) 2.1 (0.8,3.4) 4.1 (1.6,6.6)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)6.6 (3.8,9.4) 1.4 (0.8,2) 0.6 (0.3,0.8) 2.3 (1.3,3.3) 8.1 (4.7,11.6) 12.1 (6.9,17.2)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)3.2 (1.6,4.7) 0.8 (0.4,1.2) 0.3 (0.2,0.5) 1.1 (0.6,1.7) 4.9 (2.5,7.3) 6 (3.1,8.9)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)1.5 (0.6,2.4) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.2 (0.1,0.2) 0.6 (0.2,0.9) 2.2 (0.9,3.4) 2.8 (1.2,4.4)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.8 (0.3,1.3) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.5) 1.2 (0.4,2) 1.5 (0.5,2.5)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)4.6 (0.8,8.3) 1.1 (0.2,2.1) 0.5 (0.1,0.9) 1.5 (0.3,2.8) 6.8 (1.3,12.4) 8.1 (1.5,14.8)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)1892 (1603,2182) 479 (406,552) 194 (165,224) 571 (484,659) 3021 (2559,3483) 3525 (2986,4064)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)282 (109,454) 68 (26,109) 21 (8,34) 72 (28,116) 423(163,681) 484 (186,778)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-46Table A-46- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), continuedEndpoint NH NJ NY PA RI VTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)26 (7,44) 293 (80,505) 521 (143,899) 371 (102,640)44 (12,76) 9 (3,16)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.46 (0.18,0.73) 0.89 (0.35,1.43)0.52 (0.2,0.83) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.01 (0,0.02)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)39 (-9,86) 438 (-103,971) 835 (-196,1849) 431 (-101,957) 60 (-14,133) 10 (-2,23)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)8 (2,14) 89 (22,155) 165 (41,287) 100 (25,173) 13 (3,22) 3 (1,5)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)41 (-15,201) 501 (-188,2461) 979 (-367,4809) 472 (-177,2323) 69 (-26,340) 11 (-4,55)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)72 (14,130) 877 (167,1587) 1714 (326,3102) 827 (157,1497) 122 (23,220) 20 (4,35)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)45 (-0.9,91.4) 554 (-11.1,1118.8) 1084 (-21.7,2186.6) 523 (-10.5,1055.7) 77 (-1.5,154.9) 12 (-0.2,25)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)18 (0.5,36.3) 194 (5.4,380.8) 359 (10,705.8) 208 (5.8,409) 27 (0.8,53.8) 6 (0.2,11.3)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)2 (1.1,3.2) 26 (13.5,39.1) 51 (26.2,75.8) 25 (12.7,36.9) 4 (1.8,5.3) 1 (0.3,0.9)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)0.8 (0.1,1.4) 9.7 (1.7,17.7) 18 (3.2,32.7) 11.5 (2,20.9) 1.4 (0.3,2.6) 0.3 (0.1,0.5)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.3 (-0.6,1.1) 3.1 (-6.7,12.8) 5.7 (-12.5,23.8) 3.6(-7.9,15) 0.4 (-1,1.9) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)0.4 (-0.3,1.1) 5.3 (-3,13.5) 9.8 (-5.7,25.3) 6.1 (-3.5,15.7) 0.7 (-0.4,1.9) 0.2 (-0.1,0.4)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.5 (0.2,0.9) 6.4 (2.5,10.3) 12.3 (4.7,19.8) 6.1 (2.3,9.8) 0.9 (0.3,1.4) 0.2 (0.1,0.3)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)1.5 (0.8,2.1) 18 (10.3,25.7) 33.4 (19.1,47.7) 21 (12,30) 2.6 (1.5,3.7) 0.6 (0.3,0.8)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.9 (0.4,1.3) 9 (4.7,13.4) 16.8 (8.7,24.9) 9.4 (4.9,13.9) 1.3 (0.6,1.9) 0.3 (0.1,0.4)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.4 (0.2,0.5) 4.2 (1.8,6.6) 7.9 (3.4,12.3) 4.9 (2.1,7.7) 0.6 (0.3,0.9) 0.1 (0.1,0.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.2 (0.1,0.4) 2.3 (0.8,3.8) 4.3 (1.5,7) 2.4 (0.8,4)0.3 (0.1,0.5) 0.1 (0,0.1)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)1 (0.2,1.8) 12.3 (2.2,22.3) 22.7 (4.2,41.2) 14.5 (2.7,26.4) 1.8 (0.3,3.3) 0.4 (0.1,0.7)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)468 (397,540) 5430 (4599,6261) 10378 (8790,11965) 5186 (4392,5979) 735 (623,848) 137 (116,158)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)64 (24,103) 775 (298,1248) 1495 (574,2405) 725 (278,1167) 101 (39,163) 17 (7,28)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-47Table A-47- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI) continuedEndpoint AL GA KY MS NCMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)0.6 (0.2,1) 2 (0.5,3.4) 124 (34.1,213.8) 2.4 (0.7,4.1) 48.5 (13.3,83.6)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.26 (0.1,0.42) 0.01 (0,0.01)0.12 (0.05,0.2)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)1 (-0.2,2.1) 3.5 (-0.8,7.9) 172.9 (-40.5,383.3) 3.9(-0.9,8.8) 75.2 (-17.4,167.6)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1.5 (0.4,2.7) 4.6 (1.1,8) 32.2 (8,55.8) 1.1 (0.3,1.9) 15.8 (3.9,27.5)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)11.2 (-4.2,55) 47.4 (-17.8,232.9) 239.8 (-89.9,1177.1) 9.7 (-3.6,47.7) 131.2 (-49.1,646)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)19.6 (3.7,35.5) 83 (15.8,150.2) 420.2 (79.9,760) 17(3.2,30.7) 229.8 (43.6,415.8)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)12.4 (-0.2,25) 52.5 (-1.1,105.9) 265.5 (-5.3,535.6)10.7 (-0.2,21.7) 145.3 (-2.9,293.3)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)0.4 (0,0.8) 1.5 (0,2.9) 77.4 (2.2,152.3) 1.5 (0,2.9) 31.5 (0.9,62)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)1 (0.5,1.4) 4.1 (2.1,6.1) 20.9 (10.7,31) 0.8 (0.4,1.2) 11.2 (5.7,16.7)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)0.2 (0,0.4) 0.6 (0.1,1.1) 4.8 (0.8,8.7) 0.2 (0,0.3)2.4 (0.4,4.3)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)0.06 (-0.12,0.23) 0.15 (-0.32,0.61) 1.15 (-2.53,4.8) 0.04 (-0.08,0.16) 0.56 (-1.23,2.34)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)0.11 (-0.06,0.28) 0.29 (-0.17,0.75) 2.28 (-1.33,5.88) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 1.09 (-0.63,2.82)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.08 (0.03,0.14) 0.34 (0.13,0.55) 1.83 (0.7,2.95) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.96 (0.37,1.55)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)0.4 (0.2,0.5) 1 (0.6,1.4) 7.8 (4.5,11.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.4) 3.8 (2.2,5.5)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.7 (0.4,1) 4.1 (2.1,6.1) 0.1 (0.1,0.2) 2.1 (1.1,3.1)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)0.1 (0.04,0.16) 0.27 (0.12,0.43) 2.15 (0.92,3.34) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 1.03 (0.44,1.61)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.17 (0.06,0.28) 1.04 (0.36,1.73)0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.51 (0.18,0.84)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.32 (0.06,0.57) 0.82 (0.15,1.49) 6.43 (1.18,11.67)0.21 (0.04,0.38) 3.21 (0.59,5.82)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)116.9 (99,134.7) 491 (415.8,566.1) 2561.2 (2169.6,2952.4) 92.1 (78,106.2) 1367 (1157.6,1576.3)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)17.5 (6.7,28.1) 73.1 (28.1,117.7) 370.6 (142.8,595.2) 15.3 (5.9,24.7) 199 (76.1,321.2)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-48Table A-48- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI) continuedEndpoint SC TN VA WVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)16.7 (4.6,28.8) 60.4 (16.6,104.1) 85.1 (23.4,146.8)49.3 (13.6,85.1)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.17 (0.07,0.27)0.08 (0.03,0.13)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)21.9 (-5.1,48.8) 87 (-20.2,193.6) 139.5 (-32.4,310.4) 48.6 (-11.3,107.8)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)5.7 (1.4,10) 17.9 (4.4,31.1) 25.9 (6.4,45.1) 10.9 (2.7,19)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)41.4 (-15.5,203.7) 141.9 (-53.2,697.3) 207.7 (-77.8,1021) 62.1 (-23.3,305.4)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to18)72.5 (13.8,131.2) 248.5 (47.2,449.6) 363.7 (69.1,658) 108.8 (20.7,196.8)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)45.8 (-0.9,92.5) 157.1 (-3.1,317) 229.9 (-4.6,464)68.8 (-1.4,138.8)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)9.9 (0.3,19.5) 37.7 (1,74.2) 62.6 (1.7,123.4) 26.1(0.7,51.4)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)3.6 (1.8,5.3) 12.2 (6.2,18.1) 18.1 (9.2,26.8) 5.4 (2.7,8)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years andolder)0.9 (0.2,1.6) 2.6 (0.5,4.8) 3.7 (0.7,6.7) 1.7 (0.3,3.1)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older)0.2 (-0.45,0.85) 0.63 (-1.38,2.63) 0.88 (-1.93,3.68) 0.41 (-0.91,1.73)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years andolder)0.4 (-0.23,1.04) 1.25 (-0.73,3.22) 1.74 (-1.01,4.48) 0.82 (-0.47,2.11)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)0.31 (0.12,0.51) 1.06 (0.41,1.71) 1.6 (0.62,2.59) 0.5 (0.19,0.81)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 65 years and older)1.4 (0.8,2) 4.3 (2.5,6.2) 6 (3.5,8.6) 2.8 (1.6,4)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including MyocardialInfarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.7 (0.4,1.1) 2.4 (1.2,3.6) 3.6 (1.9,5.4) 1.3 (0.7,1.9)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years andolder)0.38 (0.16,0.59) 1.17 (0.5,1.83) 1.64 (0.7,2.55) 0.77 (0.33,1.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years)0.18 (0.06,0.31) 0.59 (0.21,0.98) 0.89 (0.31,1.47)0.32 (0.11,0.53)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)1.16 (0.21,2.11) 3.54 (0.65,6.42) 4.98 (0.91,9.04)2.33 (0.43,4.23)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)442.7 (374.9,510.5) 1494.4 (1265.7,1722.9) 2334.1 (1976.8,2691.2) 725.3 (614.3,836.2)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)64.2 (24.6,103.5) 218.3 (83.8,351.4) 322.1 (123.5,518.8) 95.5 (36.6,153.8)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-49Table A-49- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI) continuedEndpoint IL IN MI OH WIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-1.3 (-0.4,-2.3) 103.6 (28.5,178.6) 29.8 (8.2,51.5)237.5 (65.2,409.4) -14 (-3.8,-24.2)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0 (0,-0.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.5 (0.2,0.8)0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-19 (-4,-42) 163 (-38,361) 46 (-11,102) 347 (-81,772) -21 (-5,-47)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)-13 (-3,-23) 25 (6,43) -3 (-1,-5) 57 (14,99) -9 (-2,-16)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-109 (-540,41) 170 (-64,834) -19 (-96,7) 373 (-140,1834) -55 (-270,20)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-191 (-36,-345) 298 (57,539) -34 (-6,-61) 654 (124,1183) -96 (-18,-173)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)-121 (2,-244) 188 (-4,380) -21 (0,-43) 413 (-8,834)-61 (1,-122)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-5 (0,-9) 68 (2,135) 20 (1,39) 152 (4,300) -9 (0,-19)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)-12 (-6,-17) 17 (9,25) -2 (-1,-3) 38 (20,57) -6 (-3,-9)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)-1.6 (-0.3,-3) 3.4 (0.6,6.1) -0.3 (-0.1,-0.6) 7.8 (1.4,14.2) -1.2 (-0.2,-2.3)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)-0.4 (0.8,-1.6) 0.8 (-1.8,3.4) -0.1 (0.2,-0.3) 1.9(-4.1,7.8) -0.3 (0.6,-1.2)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)-0.7 (0.4,-1.8) 1.5 (-0.9,3.9) -0.1 (0.1,-0.4) 3.5(-2,8.9) -0.5 (0.3,-1.4)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)-0.9 (-0.3,-1.5) 1.4 (0.5,2.3) -0.1 (-0.1,-0.2) 3.2(1.2,5.1) -0.5 (-0.2,-0.8)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)-2.5 (-1.4,-3.5) 5.2 (3,7.4) -0.5 (-0.3,-0.7) 11.9(6.8,17) -1.9 (-1.1,-2.7)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)-1.3 (-0.6,-1.9) 2.4 (1.2,3.5) -0.2 (-0.1,-0.4) 5.3(2.8,7.9) -0.8 (-0.4,-1.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)-0.7 (-1.1,-0.3) 1.5 (0.6,2.3) -0.1 (-0.2,-0.1) 3.3(1.4,5.2) -0.5 (-0.8,-0.2)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)-0.4 (-0.1,-0.7) 0.8 (0.3,1.3) -0.1 (0,-0.1) 1.7 (0.6,2.9) -0.3 (-0.1,-0.4)Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove)-2.3 (-0.4,-4.3) 4.8 (0.9,8.6) -0.5 (-0.1,-0.8) 11(2,20) -1.8 (-0.3,-3.2)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)-1082 (-916,-1249) 1750.7 (1483,2018) -182 (-154,-211) 3973 (3366,4581) -601 (-509,-693)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)-176 (-66,-287) 259 (100,416) -29 (-11,-48) 578 (222,930) -87 (-33,-141)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-50Table A-50- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$EndpointCTDEDCMEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)617654000 (47353000,1903854000)180054000(13806000,554998000)63508000(4868000,195757000)229339000(17581000,706916000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)950200 (80400,2793200) 370300 (31300,1088400) 136500(11500,401300) 211200 (17900,621000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)57000 (-13300,127000) 15300 (-3600,34100) 4000 (-900,9000) 15100 (-3500,33600)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)2106200 (524600,3659700) 395400 (98400,687400) 155400(38600,270600) 750000 (186400,1304900)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)28900 (-10800,141700) 6900 (-2600,33600) 2200 (-800,10900) 7200 (-2700,35100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)50700 (9600,92900) 12000 (2300,22000) 3900 (700,7100)12600 (2400,23000)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)32100 (-600,65200) 7600 (-200,15500) 2500 (0,5000) 7900 (-200,16200)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)21711000 (403000,102456000) 6291000 (117000,29687000) 2087000 (39000,9848000) 7567000 (140000,35707000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)2700 (1300,4300) 1000 (500,1600) 300 (200,500) 700 (300,1100)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)55800 (9900,101700) 13000 (2300,23700) 5600 (1000,10200) 18500 (3300,33700)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)17300 (-38000,72300) 3200 (-6900,13200) 1300 (-2900,5400) 6000 (-13200,25100)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)48800 (-28300,125800) 10500 (-6100,27100) 4200 (-2500,10900) 18100 (-10500,46700)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)18100 (7000,29300) 2800 (1100,4400) 1000 (400,1600) 5100 (1900,8200)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)140300 (80400,200300) 29800 (17100,42600) 12300 (7100,17600) 49200 (28200,70300)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)72900 (37800,107900) 18600 (9700,27600) 7000 (3600,10300) 25600 (13300,38000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)20800 (8900,32400) 5100 (2200,7900) 2100 (900,3300) 7400 (3200,11600)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)8700 (3000,14400) 2200 (800,3600) 800 (300,1300) 3100(1100,5100)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)83100 (15200,150700) 20500 (3800,37200) 8900 (1600,16200) 27300 (5000,49500)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)292000 (247000,336000) 63000 (53000,72000) 29000 (24000,33000) 63000 (53000,73000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)53000 (20000,86000) 13000 (5000,21000) 4000 (2000,6000) 14000 (5000,22000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-51Table A-51-Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointMDMANHNJMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)967523000 (74174000,2982292000)1203805000(92297000,3710604000)162268000(12438000,500176000)1844299000(141406000,5684858000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)1953900 (165200,5743800) 1222800 (103400,3594400) 160500 (13600,471800) 2868600 (242600,8432500)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)88100 (-20500,196400) 105400 (-24600,234800) 14500 (-3400,32400) 163900 (-38200,364900)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)2303000 (573200,4003700) 3904500 (972200,6785700) 513800 (127300,895900)5861300(1458100,10192400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)42600 (-15900,208500) 50700 (-18900,248000) 6400 (-2400,31300) 78200 (-29200,383000)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)74600 (14100,136700) 88800 (16800,162600) 11200 (2100,20500) 137000 (25900,251000)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)47200 (-900,95900) 56100 (-1100,114100) 7100 (-100,14400) 86600 (-1700,176200)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)35634000 (660000,168153000)43546000(808000,205493000)6226000 (115000,29380000)65367000(1212000,308470000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)6500 (3200,10400) 4600 (2300,7400) 600 (300,1000) 7300(3500,11700)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)77700 (13700,141500) 99400 (17500,181000) 12000 (2100,21900) 149900 (26500,273100)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)18200 (-40100,76400) 31500 (-69200,131800) 3800 (-8400,16100) 47100 (-103600,197300)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)60200 (-34900,155200) 92400 (-53600,238100) 11500 (-6700,29600) 136900 (-79400,352700)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)16600 (6400,26800) 32500 (12500,52400) 4300 (1600,6900) 50400 (19400,81400)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)173800 (99600,248100) 257300 (147400,367200) 31500 (18100,45000) 384600 (220300,548900)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)112100 (58200,166100) 137000 (71100,202900) 19500 (10100,28900) 207400 (107600,307100)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)29700 (12700,46300) 38700 (16500,60300) 4800 (2000,7400) 57600 (24600,89800)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)13000 (4500,21500) 16400 (5700,27100) 2300 (800,3800)24800 (8600,40900)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)123600 (22600,224400) 147300 (27000,267200) 17800 (3200,32200) 222700 (40700,404000)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)438000 (371000,505000) 520000 (441000,600000) 61000 (52000,71000) 845000 (716000,975000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)79000 (30000,129000) 90000 (35000,147000) 12000 (5000,19000) 145000 (56000,235000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-52Table A-52- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNYPARIVTMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)3285020000(251872000,10125727000)2337684000(179210000,7205678000)279698000(21449000,862137000)57702000(4422000,177863000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)5617700 (475100,16513100) 3249400 (274800,9552200) 313600 (26500,921800) 64400 (5400,189400)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)312100 (-72900,694800) 161300 (-37600,359500) 22500 (-5300,50100) 3800 (-900,8500)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)10895400 (2711500,18941300)6566200(1630900,11430300)834700 (208500,1447300) 182700 (45200,319100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)152900 (-57100,748400) 73800 (-27500,361500) 10800 (-4000,53000) 1700 (-700,8600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)267900 (50700,490600) 129300 (24500,236800) 19000 (3600,34800) 3100 (600,5600)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)169300 (-3400,344300) 81700 (-1600,166200) 12000 (-200,24400) 1900 (0,3900)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)121162000 (2248000,571776000)70162000(1300000,331084000)9244000 (172000,43625000) 1930000 (36000,9107000)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)14200 (6900,22600) 6900 (3300,11000) 1000 (500,1600) 200 (100,300)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)276000 (48700,502700) 175200 (30900,319200) 22100 (3900,40300) 4500 (800,8100)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)87200 (-191700,365100) 54800 (-120300,229300) 6800 (-15100,28700) 1400 (-3200,6100)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)254800 (-147800,656500) 157700 (-91400,406300) 19400(-11200,49800) 4400 (-2500,11300)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)96300 (37000,155500) 47700 (18300,76900) 6800 (2600,11000) 1200 (500,2000)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)712300 (407900,1016400) 446600 (255700,637300) 55700(31900,79400) 11900 (6800,17000)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)385400 (200000,570700) 213600 (110800,316300) 28600 (14800,42300) 6200 (3200,9200)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)106700 (45500,166200) 66300 (28300,103300) 8200 (3500,12700) 1800 (800,2800)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)45800 (15900,75600) 25700 (8900,42400) 3400 (1200,5600) 800 (300,1200)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)409200 (74900,742500) 260400 (47600,472700) 32900 (6000,59700) 6600 (1200,12000)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)1454000 (1232000,1676000) 646000 (547000,745000) 93000 (79000,107000) 15000 (13000,18000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)280000 (107000,454000) 136000 (52000,220000) 19000 (7000,31000) 3000 (1000,5000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-53Table A-53- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointALGAKYMSMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)3829000 (293000,11802000)12578000(964000,38771000)781527000(59918000,2408975000)15020000(1151000,46297000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)4900 (400,14300) 31400 (2700,92200) 1635600 (138300,4807800) 54200 (4600,159200)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)400 (-100,800) 1300 (-300,3000) 64700 (-15100,144000)1500 (-300,3300)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)101500 (25200,176500) 301200 (74900,524000) 2121100 (530100,3677000) 70900 (17500,123700)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)1700 (-700,8600) 7400 (-2800,36300) 37500 (-14000,183200) 1500 (-600,7400)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)3100 (600,5600) 13000 (2500,23800) 65600 (12400,120200) 2700 (500,4900)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)1900 (0,3900) 8200 (-200,16700) 41500 (-800,84300) 1700 (0,3400)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)141600 (2600,668300) 498300 (9200,2351800)26131800(484600,123316200)498200 (9200,2351500)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)300 (100,400) 1100 (600,1800) 5800 (2800,9300) 200 (100,400)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)3500 (600,6500) 9300 (1600,16900) 72400 (12800,131900) 2400 (400,4300)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)800 (-1900,3500) 2200 (-4900,9300) 17500 (-38400,73100) 600 (-1200,2400)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)2800 (-1600,7300) 7600 (-4400,19600) 59000 (-34200,152000) 1900 (-1100,4900)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)700 (300,1000) 2700 (1000,4300) 14200 (5500,22900) 500(200,800)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)8100 (4600,11500) 21400 (12200,30500) 165800 (95000,236600) 5400 (3100,7700)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)4500 (2400,6700) 16000 (8300,23700) 94300 (48900,139600) 3300 (1700,4900)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)1400 (600,2200) 3700 (1600,5700) 28700 (12200,44700) 900 (400,1400)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)500 (200,900) 1800 (600,3000) 11100 (3900,18300) 400 (100,600)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)5600 (1000,10200) 14700 (2700,26600) 114500 (21000,207700) 3700 (700,6800)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)13000 (11000,15000) 60000 (51000,69000) 278000 (236000,321000) 9000 (8000,11000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)3000 (1000,5000) 14000 (5000,22000) 69000 (27000,112000) 3000 (1000,5000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-54Table A-54- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointNCSCTNVAWVMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)305459000 (23408000,941548000)105085000(8053000,323914000)380250000(29141000,1172086000)536326000(41103000,1653176000)310822000(23827000,958080000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)763100 (64500,2243700) 212000 (17900,623400) 927600 (78400,2727100) 1057700 (89400,3109500) 496000 (41900,1458000)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)28100 (-6500,62900) 8200 (-1900,18300) 32500 (-7500,72700) 52200 (-12100,116500) 18200 (-4200,40500)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)1039300 (256900,1815300) 377600 (93500,658900) 1177900 (292800,2049400) 1707000 (423600,2973500) 720800 (179000,1255100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)20500 (-7600,100500) 6500 (-2400,31700) 22200 (-8300,108500) 32400 (-12100,158900) 9700 (-3600,47500)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)35900 (6800,65800) 11300 (2100,20800) 38800 (7300,71100) 56800 (10800,104100) 17000 (3200,31100)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)22700 (-500,46200) 7200 (-100,14600) 24500 (-500,49900) 35900 (-700,73100) 10700 (-200,21900)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)10614400 (196100,50094600) 3333300 (61600,15733400)12714400(235100,59992100)21135200(390900,99722000)8809900 (163200,41571700)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)3100 (1500,5000) 1000 (500,1600) 3400 (1600,5400) 5000(2400,8000) 1500 (700,2400)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)36000 (6300,65600) 13000 (2300,23800) 39900 (7000,72800) 56500 (10000,103000) 26100 (4600,47600)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)8500 (-18700,35600) 3100 (-6800,13000) 9600 (-21000,40100) 13400 (-29500,56300) 6300 (-13800,26300)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)28300 (-16400,73000) 10400 (-6000,26800) 32400 (-18800,83400) 45200 (-26200,116400) 21100 (-12200,54400)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)7400 (2900,12000) 2400 (900,3900) 8200 (3200,13300) 12600 (4800,20300) 3900 (1500,6300)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)81100 (46500,115800) 29600 (17000,42300) 91500 (52400,130500) 128400 (73500,183300) 59700 (34200,85200)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)46900 (24300,69500) 16900 (8800,25100) 54700 (28400,81000) 83100 (43100,123100) 28600 (14800,42300)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)13900 (5900,21600) 5100 (2200,7900) 15700 (6700,24500) 22100 (9400,34500) 10200 (4400,16000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)5400 (1900,8900) 2000 (700,3200) 6300 (2200,10400) 9600 (3300,15800) 3400 (1200,5600)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)57100 (10400,103800) 20700 (3800,37500) 63000 (11500,114400) 89400 (16400,162300) 41400 (7600,75200)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 154000 (130000,177000) 48000 (41000,55000) 167000 (141000,192000) 307000 (260000,354000) 74000 (63000,86000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)37000 (14000,61000) 12000 (5000,20000) 41000 (16000,66000) 60000 (23000,98000) 18000 (7000,29000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage A-55Table A-55- Value of avoided incidences attributedto reduced PM2.5due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continuedEndpointILINMIOHWIMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)-8361000 (-25774000,-636000)652657000(50032000,2011750000)188019000(14409000,579553000)1496098000(114684000,4611578000)-88385000 (-272434000,-6772000)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)-223600 (-657600,-18900) 1569600 (132700,4614300) 472800 (40000,1390200) 3300700 (279100,9703100) -183300(-539000,-15500)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)-6900 (-15600,1600) 60900 (-14200,135700) 17100 (-4000,38300) 130000 (-30200,289800) -7800 (-17500,1800)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older)-864400 (-1542300,-207000) 1622000 (406100,2807900) -176600 (-323600,-40600) 3753600 (934300,6524600) -598700 (-1055500,-146000)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-17000 (-84100,6300) 26500 (-9900,129800) -3000 (-15000,1100) 58300 (-21800,285300) -8500 (-42100,3200)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)-29800 (-54600,-5600) 46500 (8800,85200) -5200 (-9600,-1000) 102100 (19300,187100) -15000 (-27400,-2800)Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)-18900 (-38400,400) 29400 (-600,59800) -3300 (-6800,100) 64600 (-1300,131300) -9500 (-19300,200)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)-1587000 (-7510600,-29100)23111400(428200,109057600)6724900 (124300,31734500)51456900(953200,242810000)-3192500 (-15074400,-58900)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger)-3200 (-5200,-1500) 4800 (2300,7600) -500 (-900,-300)10700 (5200,17000) -1600 (-2500,-800)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65years and older)-25200 (-46100,-4400) 51200 (9000,93300) -4900 (-9000,-900) 118800 (21000,216300) -19000 (-34700,-3300)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years andolder)-6000 (-25000,12900) 12400 (-27300,51800) -1200 (-4900,2500) 28400 (-62400,118800) -4500 (-18800,9800)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65years and older)-18500 (-47900,10700) 39500 (-23000,101800) -3700 (-9700,2100) 89700 (-52000,231200) -14100 (-36300,8100)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years)-7100 (-11400,-2700) 11000 (4200,17700) -1200 (-1900,-400) 24900 (9600,40200) -3700 (-6000,-1400)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)-52700 (-75200,-30100) 110400 (63200,157500) -10400 (-14800,-5900) 252600 (144700,360500) -39900 (-56900,-22800)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not includingMyocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)-28600 (-42400,-14800) 53600 (27800,79400) -5500 (-8100,-2800) 121200 (62900,179500) -18100 (-26800,-9400)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65years and older)-9300 (-14500,-4000) 19800 (8400,30800) -1900 (-2900,-800) 44900 (19200,70000) -7000 (-11000,-3000)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64years)-4300 (-7200,-1500) 8100 (2800,13400) -900 (-1400,-300) 18500 (6400,30500) -2800 (-4600,-1000)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)-42100 (-76700,-7600) 85100 (15600,154200) -8200 (-15100,-1500) 197400 (36100,358200) -31600 (-57600,-5800)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)-148000 (-171000,-125000) 214000 (181000,247000) -25000 (-29000,-21000) 496000 (420000,572000) -74000 (-85000,-62000)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)-33000 (-54000,-12000) 49000 (19000,79000) -5000 (-9000,-2000) 108000 (41000,175000) -16000 (-26000,-6000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-1Appendix B:State Level Benefits for CAIR+CAIR+ Reductions in OzoneTable B-1- Reduced incidences of morbidity due toCAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% CI)ER Visits, AsthmaHospital Admissions >64Years, Pneumonia andCOPD addedHospital Admission AllRespiratory >64 yearsHospital AdmissionsResp <2 Years School Loss Days Worker ProductivityCT 2 (0.6, 5.1) 14 (8, 19) 12 (0, 35) 7 (3, 11) 3350 (809, 8488) 52694 (52694, 52694)DE 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) 1 (0, 1) 1 (0, 1) 2 (1, 2) 642 (159, 1344) 14732 (14732, 14732)DC 1.1 (0.3, 3.3) 9 (5, 13) 8 (0, 23) 4 (2, 6) 1438 (344, 3819) 11115 (11115, 11115)ME 0.5 (0.2, 1.5) 5 (3, 7) 4 (0, 12) 2 (1, 3) 865 (213,1923) 102753 (102753, 102753)MD 9.5 (2.8, 23.3) 61 (35, 85) 54 (-1, 150) 36 (16, 56)14531 (3477, 38691) 255691 (255691, 255691)MA 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) -6 (-9, -4) -6 (-16, 0) 4 (2, 6) 1625(438, 2897) -44271 (-44271, -44271)NH 0.5 (0.2, 1) 3 (1, 4) 2 (0, 6) 2 (1, 3) 893 (220, 1993) 22557 (22557, 22557)NJ 3.5 (1.1, 6.2) 10 (6, 15) 9 (0, 26) 13 (6, 21) 6221 (1541, 13264) 45732 (45732, 45732)NY 11.9 (3.5, 28.6) 75 (42, 105) 69 (-2, 191) 39 (17, 61) 19439 (4712, 47998) 356131 (356131, 356131)PA 6.2 (1.9, 10.9) 24 (14, 34) 22 (-1, 62) 22 (10, 35) 10681 (2650, 22436) 311259 (311259, 311259)RI 0.4 (0.1, 0.7) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 1 (1, 2) 712 (180, 1308) 2558 (2558, 2558)VT 0.2 (0.1, 0.7) 2 (1, 3) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 1) 326 (80, 761) 31347 (31347, 31347)VA 10.5 (3.1, 23.5) 62 (37, 87) 55 (-1, 154) 42 (18, 65) 16470 (3996, 40437) 544941 (544941, 544941)OTR Total47.4 (13.8, 106.5) 259 (144, 368) 234 (-21, 665) 174 (75, 272) 77191 (18819, 185358) 1707240 (1707240, 1707240)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-2Table B-2- Reduced incidences of mortality due to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% CI)Mortality Bell 2004Mortality Bell 2005Mortality Huang 2005Mortality Ito 2005Mortality Levy 2005CT 1.3 (0.4, 2.1) 2.9 (0, 5.7) 2.2 (0.8, 3.6) 2.7 (1.8,3.6) 2.9 (2.2, 3.6)DE 0.1 (0, 0.1) 0.1 (0, 0.3) 0.1 (0, 0.2) 0.6 (0.4, 0.8)0.6 (0.5, 0.8)DC 0.9 (0.3, 1.5) 2 (0, 4.1) 1.4 (0.5, 2.2) 1.7 (1.1, 2.2) 1.8 (1.4, 2.3)ME 0.5 (0.2, 0.8) 1 (0, 2.1) 0.7 (0.3, 1.2) 1 (0.7, 1.4) 1.1 (0.8, 1.4)MD 5.8 (1.9, 9.6) 13.1 (0, 26.2) 9.1 (3.5, 14.8) 11.8 (8, 15.6) 12.8 (9.7, 16)MA -0.6 (-0.2, -1) -1.3 (0, -2.6) -0.9 (-0.4, -1.5) 1.7(1.2, 2.3) 1.8 (1.4, 2.3)NH 0.3 (0.1, 0.4) 0.6 (0, 1.1) 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) 0.8 (0.5,1) 0.8 (0.6, 1)NJ 1 (0.3, 1.6) 2.1 (0, 4.2) 1.6 (0.6, 2.6) 5.6 (3.8, 7.4) 6 (4.5, 7.4)NY 7.2 (2.4, 12) 16.2 (0, 32.3) 13.3 (5, 21.5) 16.9 (11.4, 22.4) 18 (13.7, 22.4)PA 2.3 (0.8, 3.8) 5 (0, 10) 4.3 (1.6, 7) 12.5 (8.4, 16.6) 13.4 (10.1, 16.6)RI 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.7 (0.5, 0.9) 0.8 (0.6, 0.9)VT 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) 0.4 (0, 0.8) 0.3 (0.1, 0.5) 0.4 (0.2,0.5) 0.4 (0.3, 0.5)VA 5.7 (1.9, 9.4) 12.9 (0, 25.7) 9.6 (3.7, 15.6) 14.3 (9.6, 18.9) 15.5 (11.7, 19.3)OTR Total24.4 (8.2, 40.6) 55 (0, 110) 42.2 (16, 68.3) 70.7 (47.8, 93.6) 76 (57.5, 94.5)Table B-3- Value of reduced incidences of morbiditydue to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% CI), 2000$ER Visits, AsthmaHospital Admissions >64 Years,Pneumonia and COPD addedHospital Admission AllRespiratory >64 yearsHospital Admissions Resp<2 Years School Loss Days Worker ProductivityCT600 (200, 1300) 186400 (105700, 260700) 233200 (-5600, 649400) 54600 (23500, 85600) 251000 (61000, 637000)52694 (52694, 52694)DE100 (0, 200)8200 (4700, 11500)9700 (-200, 26800)12400 (5400, 19500)48000 (12000, 101000)14732 (14732, 14732)DC300 (100, 900) 123800 (70900, 173900) 151700 (-3700,421100) 28800 (12400, 45000) 108000 (26000, 286000) 11115 (11115, 11115)ME200 (0, 400)64200 (37400, 89300)79800 (-1900, 222200)13900 (6000, 21800)65000 (16000, 144000)102753 (102753, 102753)MD2700 (700, 6100) 824800 (472400, 1150600) 1005200 (-24200, 2795900) 282500 (121900, 442300) 1090000 (261000, 2902000) 255691 (255691, 255691)MA200 (0, 300)-85500 (-119700, -50200)-103700 (-290500, 2500)27900 (12100, 43600)122000 (33000, 217000)-44271 (-44271, -44271)NH100 (0, 300)34200 (19500, 48100)42700 (-1000, 119000)14600 (6300, 23000)67000 (16000, 149000)22557 (22557, 22557)NJ1000 (300, 1800)142100 (82500, 198300)177100 (-4300, 491700)103900 (44800, 162700)467000 (116000, 995000)45732 (45732, 45732)NY3300 (900, 7600)1020400 (571400, 1428900)1273000 (-30600, 3544300)306300 (132000, 480200)1458000 (353000, 3600000)356131 (356131, 356131)PA1700 (500, 3300) 326100 (191800, 454700) 409300 (-9900, 1136900) 172600 (74500, 270200) 801000 (199000, 1683000) 311259 (311259, 311259)RI100 (0, 200)400 (200, 500)400 (0, 1000)11500 (5000, 18000)53000 (14000, 98000)2558 (2558, 2558)VT100 (0, 200)27000 (15900, 38000)33500 (-800, 93400)5000 (2200, 7900)24000 (6000, 57000)31347 (31347, 31347)VA3000 (800, 6300)844100 (497700, 1178100)1022900 (-24700, 2842500)324400 (140200, 507400)1235000 (300000, 3033000)544941 (544941, 544941)OTRTotal13300 (3600, 28900) 3516400 (1950400, 4982300) 4334800 (-397400, 12346700) 1358400 (586400, 2127100) 5789000 (1411000, 13902000) 1707240 (1707240, 1707240)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-3Table B-4- Value of reduced incidences of mortalitydue to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% CI), 2000$Mortality Bell 2004Mortality Bell 2005Mortality Huang 2005Mortality Ito 2005Mortality Levy 2005CT7998000 (653000, 24054000) 17971000 (-9000, 60292000) 13983000 (1177000, 41247000) 17259000 (1616000, 46980000) 18520000 (1773000, 49886000)DE347000 (28000, 1045000) 805000 (0, 2700000) 633000 (53000, 1866000) 3606000 (337000, 9814000) 3915000 (375000, 10545000)DC5644000 (461000, 16972000)12903000 (-7000, 43282000)8599000 (724000, 25360000)10548000 (987000, 28713000)11522000 (1103000, 31035000)ME2901000 (237000, 8726000)6514000 (-3000, 21853000)4687000 (395000, 13824000)6456000 (604000, 17573000)6921000 (663000, 18642000)MD36277000 (2960000, 109097000)82569000 (-43000, 276996000)57533000 (4845000, 169694000)74519000 (6975000, 202843000)81013000 (7757000, 218214000)MA-3672000 (-11045000, -300000)-8228000 (-27614000, 4000)-5954000 (-17569000, -501000)10787000 (1010000, 29364000)11461000 (1097000, 30870000)NH1578000 (129000, 4746000)3544000 (-2000, 11891000)2584000 (218000, 7622000)4909000 (460000, 13364000)5266000 (504000, 14183000)NJ6064000 (495000, 18236000)13338000 (-7000, 44740000)10240000 (863000, 30201000)35266000 (3301000, 95994000)37573000 (3597000, 101204000)NY45617000 (3722000, 137192000) 101737000 (-53000, 341320000) 83756000 (7052000, 247053000) 106855000 (10002000, 290865000) 113905000 (10906000, 306815000)PA14224000 (1161000, 42775000)31629000 (-16000, 106095000)27078000 (2281000, 79861000)78862000 (7382000, 214666000)84447000 (8086000, 227463000)RI41000 (3000, 124000)92000 (0, 307000)61000 (5000, 179000)4475000 (419000, 12182000)4761000 (456000, 12824000)VT1179000 (96000, 3545000)2653000 (-1000, 8900000)1928000 (162000, 5686000)2299000 (215000, 6257000)2471000 (237000, 6655000)VA35661000 (2910000, 107240000)81041000 (-42000, 271850000)60653000 (5108000, 178889000)90057000 (8430000, 245139000)97776000 (9362000, 263362000)OTR Total153862000 (1810000, 473451000)346569000 (-27799000, 1190232000)265780000 (5313000, 800981000)445898000 (41739000, 1213754000)479551000 (45916000, 1291700000)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-4CAIR+ Reductions in PM2.5Table B-5- Reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5, Mean (95% CI)CT DE DC ME MD MA NHMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)6 (2,11) 6 (2,10) 2 (0,3) 1 (0,2) 27 (7,46) -8 (-2,-13) 1(0,2)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.05 (0.02,0.09) -0.01 (0,-0.01) 0 (0,0)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)10 (-2,22) 8 (-2,18) 2 (0,4) 2 (0,4) 42 (-10,94) -9 (2,-21) 2 (0,4)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)13 (3,23) 8 (2,15) 2 (1,4) 3 (1,5) 41 (10,72) -16 (-4,-29) 2 (1,4)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)75 (-28,371) 61 (-23,299) 14 (-5,70) 12 (-5,60) 318 (-119,1567) -73 (-362,27) 13 (-5,66)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)132 (25,239) 106 (20,192) 25 (5,45) 21 (4,38) 556 (106,1007) -128 (-24,-232) 24 (4,43)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)83 (-2,168) 67 (-1,136) 16 (0,32) 13 (0,27) 352 (-7,711) -81 (2,-164) 15 (0,30)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)4 (0,8) 4 (0,7) 1 (0,2) 1 (0,2) 19 (1,37) -5 (0,-9) 1 (0,2)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)4 (2,6) 5 (3,8) 1 (1,2) 1 (0,1) 28 (14,41) -4 (-2,-6) 1 (0,1)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)1 (0,3) 1 (0,2) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,1) 6 (1,11) -2 (0,-3) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0 (-1,2) 0 (-1,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 1 (-3,6) -1 (1,-2) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)1 (0,2) 1 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (-2,7) -1 (1,-2) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)1 (0,2) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 2 (1,4) -1 (0,-2) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years andolder)3 (2,4) 2 (1,3) 1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 9 (5,13) -3 (-2,-5) 0 (0,1)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)1 (1,2) 1 (1,2) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 6 (3,8) -2 (-1,-2) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults65 years and older)1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (1,4) -1 (-1,0) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults18-64 years)0 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 1 (0,2) 0 (0,-1) 0 (0,0)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)2 (0,3) 2 (0,3) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,1) 8 (1,14) -2 (0,-4) 0 (0,1)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)765 (648,882) 662 (561,764) 197 (167,228) 145 (122,167) 3525 (2985,4065) -825 (-698,-951) 152 (129,176)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)116 (44,188) 94 (36,152) 21 (8,34) 19 (7,31) 499 (190,807) -113 (-43,-184) 22 (8,35)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-5Table B-6- Reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5Mean (95% CI),continuedNJ NY PA RI VT VA OTC TotalMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)32 (9,55) 40 (11,70) 62 (17,107) -6 (-2,-10) 0 (0,1) 64(18,110) 228 (62,393)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) -0.01 (0,-0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.11 (0.04,0.18) 0.38 (0.15,0.62)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)47 (-11,105) 63 (-15,141) 71 (-16,158) -8 (2,-17) 1 (0,1) 90 (-21,199) 319 (-74,711)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages18 and older)65 (16,113) 85 (21,149) 118 (29,207) -12 (-3,-22) 1 (0,2) 94 (23,164) 404 (100,708)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)360 (-135,1773) 489 (-183,2408) 547 (-205,2694) -62 (-306,23) 4 (-1,20) 689 (-258,3392) 2446 (-1634,12770)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze(asthmatic children, 6 to 18)630 (120,1140) 855 (162,1548) 957 (182,1732) -108 (-21,-196) 7 (1,13) 1205 (229,2182) 4282 (813,7750)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms,Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6to 18)398 (-8,805) 541 (-11,1093) 605 (-12,1222) -69 (1,-139) 4 (0,9) 762 (-15,1540) 2708 (-54,5469)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years andolder)21 (1,41) 27 (1,54) 35 (1,68) -4 (0,-7) 0 (0,1) 41 (1,82) 145 (4,285)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma(Children 17 years and younger)19 (10,28) 26 (13,38) 29 (15,43) -3 (-2,-5) 0 (0,0) 60 (30,89) 166 (84,247)Hospital Admissions- Congestive HeartFailure (Adults 65 years and older)7 (1,13) 9 (2,17) 14 (2,25) -1 (0,-3) 0 (0,0) 14 (2,25) 50 (9,91)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults65 years and older)2 (-5,9) 3 (-6,12) 4 (-9,18) 0 (1,-2) 0 (0,0) 3 (-7,14) 14 (-31,59)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic HeartDisease (Adults 65 years and older)4 (-2,10) 5 (-3,13) 7 (-4,18) -1 (0,-2) 0 (0,0) 6 (-4,17) 25 (-15,65)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Populationunder 65 years)5 (2,7) 6 (2,10) 7 (3,11) -1 (0,-1) 0 (0,0) 5 (2,9) 26 (10,41)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascularnot including Myocardial Infarction (Adults65 years and older)13 (7,19) 17 (10,24) 25 (14,35) -2 (-1,-4) 0 (0,0) 22 (13,32) 87 (50,125)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascularnot including Myocardial Infarction (Adults18 to 64 years)6 (3,10) 8 (4,13) 11 (6,16) -1 (-1,-2) 0 (0,0) 12 (6,18)45 (23,66)Hospital Admissions- Chronic LungDisease (Adults 65 years and older)3 (1,5) 4 (2,6) 6 (2,9) -1 (-1,0) 0 (0,0) 6 (3,9) 22 (8,35)Hospital Admissions- Chronic LungDisease (Adults 18-64 years)2 (1,3) 2 (1,4) 3 (1,5) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (1,5) 11 (4,19)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults65 years and above)9 (2,16) 12 (2,21) 17 (3,31) -2 (0,-3) 0 (0,0) 19 (3,34)65 (12,118)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)3819 (3234,4405) 5141 (4353,5930) 6040 (5114,6966) -670 (-567,-773) 49 (41,56) 7715 (6532,8897) 26716 (22620,30811)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children,ages 7-14)562 (214,909) 751 (286,1215) 843 (322,1364) -93 (-35,-150) 6 (2,10) 1066 (407,1723) 3793 (1448,6133)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-6Table B-7- Value of reduced incidences of mortalityand morbidity due toCAIR+ reductions in PM2.5,Mean (95% CI), Millions of 2000$CT DE DC MEMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)39.1205 (2.9977,120.5846) 34.7264 (2.6612,107.0408) 10.3544 (0.7935,31.9163) 8.7409 (0.6698,26.9428)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.0615 (0.0052,0.181) 0.0705 (0.006,0.2072) 0.0221 (0.0019,0.0649) 0.0094 (0.0008,0.0275)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.0037 (-0.0008,0.0082) 0.003 (-0.0007,0.0066) 0.0007(-0.0002,0.0015) 0.0006 (-0.0001,0.0013)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)0.8597 (0.2119,1.5045) 0.5539 (0.1365,0.9694) 0.1571(0.0386,0.2755) 0.1902 (0.0467,0.3333)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.0118 (-0.0044,0.0578) 0.0095 (-0.0035,0.0465) 0.0022 (-0.0008,0.0109) 0.0019 (-0.0007,0.0093)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.0206 (0.0039,0.0378) 0.0166 (0.0031,0.0304) 0.0039(0.0007,0.0071) 0.0033 (0.0006,0.0061)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.013 (-0.0003,0.0265) 0.0105 (-0.0002,0.0213) 0.0025(0,0.005) 0.0021 (0,0.0043)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)1.3729 (0.0253,6.4806) 1.2165 (0.0225,5.7411) 0.3487(0.0064,1.6458) 0.2895 (0.0053,1.3666)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)0.0011 (0.0005,0.0018) 0.0014 (0.0007,0.0023) 0.0003(0.0002,0.0006) 0.0002 (0.0001,0.0003)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)0.0225 (0.004,0.0411) 0.018 (0.0032,0.0328) 0.0056 (0.001,0.0102) 0.0046 (0.0008,0.0083)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.007 (-0.0153,0.0292) 0.0044 (-0.0096,0.0183) 0.0013(-0.0028,0.0054) 0.0015 (-0.0033,0.0062)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.0197 (-0.0114,0.0508) 0.0146 (-0.0084,0.0375) 0.0042 (-0.0024,0.0109) 0.0045 (-0.0026,0.0117)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)0.0074 (0.0028,0.0119) 0.0038 (0.0015,0.0062) 0.001 (0.0004,0.0016) 0.0013 (0.0005,0.0021)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years andolder)0.0566 (0.0324,0.0807) 0.0413 (0.0236,0.0589) 0.0123(0.0071,0.0176) 0.0122 (0.007,0.0175)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.0294 (0.0152,0.0436) 0.0257 (0.0133,0.038) 0.007 (0.0036,0.0103) 0.0065 (0.0034,0.0096)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.0084 (0.0036,0.0131) 0.007 (0.003,0.011) 0.0021 (0.0009,0.0033) 0.0019 (0.0008,0.0029)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults18-64 years)0.0035 (0.0012,0.0058) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.0008 (0.0003,0.0013) 0.0008 (0.0003,0.0013)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.0335 (0.0061,0.0609) 0.0284 (0.0052,0.0516) 0.0089(0.0016,0.0162) 0.0068 (0.0012,0.0123)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)0.1179 (0.0998,0.1359) 0.0865 (0.0732,0.0998) 0.0292(0.0247,0.0336) 0.016 (0.0135,0.0184)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)0.0217 (0.0083,0.0354) 0.0176 (0.0067,0.0287) 0.0039(0.0015,0.0064) 0.0036 (0.0014,0.0058)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-7Table B-8- Value of reduced incidences of mortalityand morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5, Mean (95% CI),Millions of 2000$, continuedMD MA NH NJ NYMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)167.7971 (12.8584,517.2181) -47.4149 (-146.1475,-3.6328) 7.0159 (0.5376,21.6258) 200.9525 (15.399,619.4159) 254.7955 (19.5246,785.3798)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.3402 (0.0288,1.0003) -0.0439 (-0.1292,-0.0037) 0.007 (0.0006,0.0205) 0.3105 (0.0263,0.913) 0.4262 (0.036,1.2532)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.0157 (-0.0036,0.0351) -0.0035 (-0.0079,0.0008) 0.0007 (-0.0002,0.0015) 0.0177 (-0.0041,0.0395) 0.0236 (-0.0054,0.0528)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)2.706 (0.6658,4.7409) -1.0669 (-1.8825,-0.2599) 0.1631 (0.0401,0.2859) 4.2669 (1.0504,7.4732) 5.597 (1.3765,9.8094)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.0497 (-0.0185,0.2438) -0.0115 (-0.0564,0.0043) 0.0021 (-0.0008,0.0103) 0.0562 (-0.021,0.276) 0.0763 (-0.0285,0.3748)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.087 (0.0164,0.1593) -0.02 (-0.0367,-0.0038) 0.0037(0.0007,0.0067) 0.0984 (0.0186,0.1804) 0.1336 (0.0253,0.2449)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.055 (-0.0011,0.1119) -0.0127 (-0.0258,0.0003) 0.0023 (0,0.0047) 0.0623 (-0.0012,0.1267) 0.0845 (-0.0017,0.172)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)6.3011 (0.1164,29.7397) -1.5943 (-7.5305,-0.0294) 0.2794 (0.0052,1.3189) 6.9329 (0.128,32.7231) 9.1619 (0.1692,43.2477)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)0.0077 (0.0037,0.0122) -0.0011 (-0.0017,-0.0005) 0.0002 (0.0001,0.0003) 0.0053 (0.0025,0.0084) 0.0071 (0.0034,0.0114)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)0.0896 (0.0158,0.1635) -0.0266 (-0.0486,-0.0047) 0.0037 (0.0007,0.0067) 0.1083 (0.0191,0.1975) 0.1406 (0.0248,0.2564)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.0211 (-0.0462,0.0883) -0.0084 (-0.0354,0.0184) 0.0012 (-0.0026,0.005) 0.034 (-0.0746,0.1426) 0.0444 (-0.0973,0.1861)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.0696 (-0.0403,0.1794) -0.0248 (-0.0639,0.0143) 0.0036 (-0.0021,0.0092) 0.0988 (-0.0572,0.2548) 0.1297 (-0.0751,0.3344)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)0.0194 (0.0075,0.0313) -0.0077 (-0.0124,-0.0029) 0.0014 (0.0005,0.0023) 0.0358 (0.0138,0.0579) 0.0479 (0.0184,0.0774)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years andolder)0.2006 (0.1148,0.2863) -0.0688 (-0.0983,-0.0394) 0.0097 (0.0056,0.0139) 0.2775 (0.1589,0.3962) 0.3624 (0.2075,0.5173)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.1309 (0.0679,0.1939) -0.036 (-0.0533,-0.0187) 0.0063 (0.0033,0.0093) 0.1482 (0.0768,0.2195) 0.1936 (0.1004,0.2868)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.0343 (0.0146,0.0535) -0.0104 (-0.0162,-0.0044) 0.0015 (0.0006,0.0023) 0.0416 (0.0177,0.0649) 0.0543 (0.0231,0.0846)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults18-64 years)0.0152 (0.0053,0.0252) -0.0044 (-0.0072,-0.0015) 0.0008 (0.0003,0.0012) 0.0177 (0.0062,0.0293) 0.023 (0.008,0.0381)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.1427 (0.0261,0.2594) -0.0395 (-0.0718,-0.0072) 0.0055 (0.001,0.0099) 0.1609 (0.0294,0.2924) 0.2085 (0.0381,0.3789)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)0.5108 (0.4325,0.5892) -0.1217 (-0.1404,-0.103) 0.0199 (0.0169,0.023) 0.5947 (0.5035,0.6858) 0.7204 (0.6099,0.8308)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)0.0933 (0.0355,0.1521) -0.0211 (-0.0346,-0.008) 0.004(0.0015,0.0066) 0.1051 (0.04,0.1713) 0.1405 (0.0534,0.229)DRAFT –Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the NortheastPage B-8Table B-9-Value of reduced incidences of mortalityand morbidity due to CAIR+reductions in PM2.5, Mean (95% CI), Millions of 2000$, continuedPA RI VT VA OTR TotalMortality (Adults ages 30 and older)390.2875 (29.9078,1203.0222) -37.3088 (-114.9983,-2.8586) 2.7761 (0.2127,8.557) 401.8214 (30.7933,1238.5797) 1433.6644 (-144.7903,4673.7917)Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age)0.5319 (0.045,1.564) -0.0358 (-0.1052,-0.003) 0.0029(0.0002,0.0086) 0.715 (0.0605,2.1021) 2.4176 (-0.0232,7.3356)Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12)0.0265 (-0.0061,0.0593) -0.0029 (-0.0065,0.0007) 0.0002 (0,0.0004) 0.0335 (-0.0077,0.0749) 0.1193 (-0.0435,0.2827)Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 andolder)7.8021 (1.9204,13.666) -0.8077 (-1.4215,-0.1974) 0.0633 (0.0156,0.111) 6.1694 (1.5197,10.8006) 26.6541 (3.7183,49.5125)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.0854 (-0.0318,0.4192) -0.0097 (-0.0476,0.0036) 0.0006 (-0.0002,0.0031) 0.1076 (-0.0401,0.528) 0.3821 (-0.2543,1.9874)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmaticchildren, 6 to 18)0.1495 (0.0283,0.274) -0.0169 (-0.0311,-0.0032) 0.0011 (0.0002,0.002) 0.1883 (0.0356,0.3451) 0.669 (0.0658,1.2867)Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness ofBreath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)0.0946 (-0.0019,0.1924) -0.0107 (-0.0218,0.0002) 0.0007 (0,0.0014) 0.1191 (-0.0024,0.2424) 0.4231 (-0.0566,0.9093)Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)11.647 (0.2151,54.972) -1.2273 (-5.7964,-0.0226) 0.0957 (0.0018,0.4516) 13.9799 (0.2584,65.9692) 48.8038 (-12.3733,243.6043)Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17years and younger)0.0081 (0.0039,0.0129) -0.0009 (-0.0014,-0.0004) 0.0001 (0,0.0001) 0.0166 (0.008,0.0265) 0.0461 (0.02,0.0757)Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure(Adults 65 years and older)0.2064 (0.0364,0.3763) -0.021 (-0.0382,-0.0037) 0.0015 (0.0003,0.0028) 0.2104 (0.0371,0.3837) 0.7637 (0.0561,1.4709)Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 yearsand older)0.0645 (-0.1414,0.2703) -0.0065 (-0.0272,0.0142) 0.0005 (-0.0011,0.0021) 0.05 (-0.1096,0.2096) 0.215 (-0.5663,0.9957)Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.1858 (-0.1076,0.479) -0.0184 (-0.0474,0.0106) 0.0015 (-0.0009,0.0039) 0.1677 (-0.0971,0.4323) 0.6565 (-0.5164,1.8289)Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65years)0.0554 (0.0213,0.0895) -0.0062 (-0.01,-0.0024) 0.0004(0.0002,0.0007) 0.0417 (0.016,0.0673) 0.2016 (0.0604,0.3428)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years andolder)0.5257 (0.301,0.7505) -0.0527 (-0.0753,-0.0302) 0.0041 (0.0023,0.0058) 0.4772 (0.2732,0.6812) 1.8581 (0.9597,2.7564)Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular notincluding Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)0.2503 (0.1298,0.3708) -0.0267 (-0.0396,-0.0138) 0.0022 (0.0011,0.0032) 0.2824 (0.1464,0.4183) 1.0196 (0.4684,1.5708)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults65 years and older)0.0781 (0.0333,0.1217) -0.0078 (-0.0121,-0.0033) 0.0006 (0.0003,0.001) 0.0822 (0.035,0.1281) 0.2939 (0.1047,0.4786)Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults18-64 years)0.0301 (0.0104,0.0498) -0.0032 (-0.0053,-0.0011) 0.0003 (0.0001,0.0004) 0.0327 (0.0113,0.054) 0.1204 (0.0318,0.2089)Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years andabove)0.307 (0.0561,0.5578) -0.0312 (-0.0568,-0.0057) 0.0022 (0.0004,0.0041) 0.3332 (0.0609,0.6054) 1.167 (0.0974,2.2359)Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years)0.7524 (0.637,0.8678) -0.0849 (-0.098,-0.0719) 0.0055(0.0046,0.0063) 1.0159 (0.8602,1.1717) 3.6625 (3.0375,4.2874)Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14)0.1578 (0.0601,0.2571) -0.0173 (-0.0283,-0.0066) 0.0012 (0.0004,0.0019) 0.1993 (0.0759,0.3248) 0.7095 (0.2218,1.2044)