FAA Aerospace Forecast

Fiscal Years 2011-2031

U.S. Department of Transportation 

Federal Aviation Administration 

Aviation Policy and Plans

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

MESSAGE FROM THE ADMINISTRATOR

The airlines have returned to profitability, and we expect that that will continue throughout the coming 

year. The good news is not limited to the United States alone. Indeed, the international market is 

recovering at an even faster rate. 

Aviation’s ability to bounce back is not without precedent. The terrorist attacks of 9/11, the specter of 

the severe acute respiratory syndrome, the spike in oil prices and the recession have slowed aviation’s 

growth in recent years, but the return to profitability is proof once again that aviation finds a way.

Previously, we had projected that U.S. commercial carriers would serve a billion passengers by 2023. 

The activity of 2010 has pushed that milestone forward two years to 2021.

As the economy continues to recover, passenger and operations totals also will continue to climb. 

Just as was the case last year, we expect that international markets will again continue to grow faster 

than domestic markets. Large airports will continue to outpace their smaller counterparts. We continue 

to project that the numbers of larger regional jets flying will increase, while most of the smaller regional 

jets are retired from the fleet. 

We project substantial growth in both demand and activity. 550 million more passengers will be on 

U.S. carriers by 2031 than in 2010. Traffic—revenue passenger miles—will more than double over the 

next 20 years.

On the general aviation front, the demand for products and services will continue to grow. With new 

business jets and products like light sport aircraft, we expect activity in this segment of the industry to 

continue to increase in the future.

The forecast is not without risk. Environmental constraints could lead to reductions in demand. 

The volatility of fuel prices and the continued presence of congestion continue to loom. 

In any case, the FAA’s pledge remains the same: to deliver the world’s safest and most efficient 

aerospace system. We will continue to make good on that promise. 

Randy Babbitt

Administrator
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE OF CONTENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE

Forecast Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Review of 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

U.S. Economic Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

World Economic Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Commercial Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

World Travel Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

U.S. Travel Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Commercial Air Carriers - Passenger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Commercial Air Carriers - Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2010 Financial Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2010 Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

FAA Workload. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011 - 2031. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Economic Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

World Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Aviation Traffic and Activity forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Commercial Aviation Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Domestic Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

International Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Air Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Commercial Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

FAA Workload Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

FAA and Contract Towers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

En Route Centers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

UNmanned Aircraft Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Commercial Space Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Risks to the Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Appendix A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Appendix B: Forecast Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Appendix C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Forecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

2011-2031

Over the past decade the commercial air carrier industry has suffered several major shocks that have led 

to reduced demand for air travel. These shocks include the terror attacks of September 11, skyrocketing 

prices for fuel, and a global recession. To manage through this period of extreme volatility, air carriers 

fine-tuned their business models with the aim of minimizing financial losses. To lower operating costs, 

carriers eliminated unprofitable routes and grounded older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating 

revenues, carriers charged separately for services historically bundled in the price of ticket and initiated 

new services which customers were willing to purchase. The capacity discipline exhibited by the carriers 

and their focus on additional revenue streams bolstered the industry to profitability in 2010 (for the first time 

since 2007). Going into the next decade, there is cautious optimism that the industry has been transformed 

from one of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression, aviation 

will continue to grow over the long term. The 2011 FAA forecast now calls for one billion passengers to be 

flown in 2021, two years earlier than projected in last year’s forecast. Growth over the next five years will 

average 3.7 percent per year, with average annual growth of 2.5 percent per year for the remainder of the 

forecast period. The level of activity and demand is expected to eclipse those published in last year’s FAA 

forecast. One factor influencing the recovery beyond prior forecast levels is stronger than expected traffic 

results posted during the latter part of 2010. Another factor is the expectation of a more robust economic 

environment during the mid-years of the forecast than previously assumed. This takes the form of a more 

rapid and steeper decline in unemployment and stronger economic expansion.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both 

domestically and internationally – will increase 4.5 percent this year after posting a 0.5 percent decrease for 

2010, and will then grow at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent through 2031. In the domestic market, 

capacity grows 2.9 percent in 2011, after declining for the third straight year in 2010 (down 0.4 percent), 

and then grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent for the remainder of the forecast period. Domestic 

mainline carrier capacity will increase for the first time in three years during 2011, up 2.8 percent from 2010. 

For the regional carriers, domestic capacity will grow 3.8 percent from 2010 levels – resuming growth for 

the second straight year after shrinking in 2009 for the first time since deregulation. Commercial air carrier 

domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to grow 3.5 percent in 2011, and then grow at an 

average of 3.1 percent per year through 2031; domestic enplanements in 2011 will grow 3.0 percent, and 

then grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent for the remainder of the forecast.

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to increase by 0.2 seats in FY 2011 to 122.0 seats. 

Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to stay relatively flat as network carriers1

 

continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase, 

we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, increasing the average regional aircraft size 

in 2011 by 0.4 seats to 56.6 seats per mile. Passenger trip length in domestic markets will increase by 4.6 

miles during the same period. 

1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, and US Airways (although Delta 

Airlines and Northwest Airlines merged, the carriers continued to report separate operating results until March of 2010).
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The downturn in the economy has dampened the near-term prospects for the general aviation industry, but 

the long-term outlook remains favorable. We see growth in business aviation demand over the long term 

driven by a growing U.S. and world economy. As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours 

flown is projected to increase an average of 2.2 percent a year through 2031.

The global economy is growing again, reviving the demand for air travel. Profitability for the U.S. carriers 

will hinge on a stable environment for fuel prices, an increase in demand for corporate air travel, the ability 

to pass along fare increases to leisure travelers, and the generation of ancillary revenues. To navigate the 

volatile operating environment, mainline carriers will continue to drive down their costs by better matching 

flight frequencies and/or aircraft gauge with demand, delaying deliveries of newer aircraft and/or grounding 

older aircraft, and pressuring regional affiliates to accept lower fees for contract flying. Over the long term, 

we see a competitive and profitable industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares 

growing more slowly than inflation.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

REVIEW OF 2010

The grim operating environment faced by the carriers at the start of the global recession has revolutionized 

how they operate today. A view held by some industry professionals is that recent carrier initiatives will 

provide traction towards profitability, even during periods of uncertainty. One recent initiative by the 

passenger carriers is a shift in focus from increasing market share to one of boosting shareholder return 

on investment. Evidence of this initiative is three straight years of capacity reductions which have landed 

20102

 domestic capacity levels 6.4 percent lower than those posted one decade earlier. Another relatively 

new tactic by the carriers is generating revenue for services beyond the core purchase of an airplane 

seat. For example, air carriers are charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal 

service), as well as for services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock 

fees). The impact from these recent initiatives gives reason for optimism. After posting net losses for eight 

consecutive quarters, the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits in three out of 

four quarters of FY 2010.

Demand for air travel in 2010 grew slowly following a dismal 2009 that was marked by fading consumer 

confidence, tightening credit, surging unemployment, and eroding corporate travel budgets. In 2010 

system revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 2.2 percent as enplanements increased 1.2 percent. 

Commercial air carrier domestic enplanements were up 0.7 percent while international enplanements were 

up 5.2 percent. The system-wide load factor pushed through the 80 percent barrier for the first time to 81.8 

percent (up 2.1 points from 2009). Domestic enplanement market share continued to rise for low-cost and 

regional carriers in 2010 while network and “other” carrier share decreased. Enplanement market share 

for the network carriers shrank 1.8 points to 45.9 percent while market share for “other” carriers shrank 0.1 

points to 1.3 percent. Low cost carrier3

 share rose 0.9 points to 27.4 percent and regional carrier market 

share rose 1.1 points to 25.4 percent. 

Capacity restraint by the carriers as passenger demand returned helped system wide real yield to increase 

by 3.2 percent in 2010. Data for FY 2010 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined 

operating profit of $7.4 billion (compared to a $0.2 billion operating loss posted for FY 2009). The network 

carriers reported combined operating profits of $5.0 billion and the low cost carriers reported combined 

operating profits of $1.6 billion, with five out of the six network carriers and seven of the nine low cost 

carriers posting profits. Net profits for U.S. commercial air carriers (cargo and passenger) for the year 

totaled $3.0 billion, with the network, cargo, low cost and “other” carrier groups each posting net profits of 

$1.5, $1.3, $0.6, and $0.2 billion, respectively. The only carrier group to post a net loss for 2010 was the 

regionals ($0.6 billion). 

The market for general aviation products and services declined sharply in the first three quarters of CY

2010. U.S. manufacturer shipments declined for the third year in a row, down an estimated 20.9 percent, 

while worldwide billings are estimated to have declined 5.4 percent compared to 2009. Piston and turbine 

aircraft shipments by U.S. manufacturers fell an estimated 6.7 percent and 35.4 percent, respectively. The 

decline in shipments and billings seen in the turbine fleet are a direct reflection of the downturn in the U.S. 

2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are on a fiscal year (FY) basis 

(October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international economic and world traffic and financial data are on a 

calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.

3 Allegiant Air, AirTran Airways, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Sun Country Airlines, USA3000, and Virgin 

America Airlines.
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and world economy. Along with the fall in shipments and billings, general aviation activity at FAA and 

contract tower airports fell 5.1 percent in 2010.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers fell 3.2 percent to their lowest levels since 1982 as activity 

declined in all user categories with the exception of military. Although the overall number of flights fell, 

FAA’s workload didn’t. As the fleet mix changes with increasing numbers of regional and business jets in 

the nation’s skies, and as carriers consolidate operations in their large hubs, the complexity of activity in the 

airspace continues to grow, increasing our workload. 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

U.S. Economic Activity

To help revive the economy from the worst recession in the post war era, lawmakers enacted the American 

Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) in February 2009. The bill included a combination of individual 

tax cuts, investment incentives, aid to people directly hurt by the recession, state fiscal relief, and direct 

government investment spending which was expected to have a total fiscal impact of $817 billion between 

2009 and 2019 (with half of the stimulus projected to occur during 2010). The results from enactment of 

this bill are encouraging. After four consecutive quarters of contraction, the economy grew for the first time 

during the fourth quarter of FY 2009 (up 1.6 percent) and 2.2 percent for all of FY 2010. 

One repercussion to the economy resulting from the recession was to the nation’s unemployment rate. 

When the recession began in December 2007 the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. Unemployment 

climbed throughout 2008, intensified during 2009, and reached its pinnacle during the first month of FY 2010 

(10.1 percent). The unemployment rate for all of FY 2010 averaged 9.7 percent. All told, from the beginning 

of the recession through the end of FY 2010 approximately 7.6 million jobs were lost.
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Oil prices, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, increased 35.5 percent from FY 2009 to 

average $74.11 in FY 2010. The fuel price volatility that plagued 2008 and 2009 diminished in 2010, with 

prices in 2010 falling within a narrower band (between $72.08 and $80.83 per barrel) versus prices in 2009 

(between $37.67 and $74.22 per barrel). 

After declining 0.3 percent in 2009 (the first decline since 1955), consumer prices increased in 2010. The 

combination of growing demand and higher energy prices drove the consumer price index (CPI) up a modest 

1.7 percent in FY 2010.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

World Economic Activity

In 2010, the U.S. and world economies grew 2.6 and 3.7 percent, respectively, after posting their worst 

performance since the Great Depression in 2009. The advanced economies (U.S., Western Europe, Japan, 

Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) expanded 2.4 percent. All world regions saw their economies grow, 

but data coming out at the end of the year suggest that the recovery in Europe is continuing to lag that of 

other world regions.

In CY 2010, GDP in Canada expanded at a faster pace (up 2.9 percent) than the U.S. (up 2.6 percent). 

The combined economies of the Asian and Far East nations grew 6.5 percent in 2010, up from 1.7 

percent a year earlier. This region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (up 2.7 percent), 

and the world’s most vibrant economy, China (up 10.2 percent). The combined economies of Europe are 

rebounding more slowly, with Western Europe up 1.6 percent and the combined economies of Central 

Europe and the former Soviet Union up 3.4 percent. GDP in Latin America expanded by 4.7 percent with 

Brazil up 7.3 percent and Mexico up 4.8 percent. 

Commercial Aviation

Commercial aviation rebounded in 2010 despite rising jet fuel prices. Coming off of two years of losses, 

the U.S. industry posted a net profit in 2010, with a similar outcome predicted for foreign carriers. With 

none of the world regions in recession during the year, global industry net profits for calendar year 2010 are 

expected to be $15.1 billion.4

 Profits are expected for all global regions as revenues rebound and airlines 

better manage their capacity.

4 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2010.
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World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air carriers are 

expected to post a strong performance in CY 2010 as demand for air travel picks up from the depressed 

levels recorded during 2009. Although traffic results are not available for full year 2010, ICAO forecasts that 

worldwide RPKs will increase 8.0 percent after a decline of 2.0 percent in 2009.5

Statistics from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) available through November 2010 show 

passengers are up 2.8 percent over the same 2009 period. Data for the same eleven month period shows 

capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (ASKs), to be down 0.2 percent and RPKs to be up 

2.7 percent. Results for April 2010 were negatively impacted by airspace closures stemming from volcanic 

ash clouds.

5 ICAO press release dated December 23, 2010.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported an increase of 9.8 percent in international RPKs on 

a 4.1 percent increase in international ASKs for the calendar year of 2010. International passengers were 

up 13.0 percent during the same period.

In CY 2010, U.S. and foreign flag carriers will transport an estimated 149.6 million passengers between the 

United States and the rest of the world, a 1.4 percent increase from 2009. Year-over-year growth increased 

in the Transborder, Pacific and Latin markets (up 3.4 percent, 2.9 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively). 

Passengers decreased in the Atlantic market (down 0.9 percent) due to repercussions from the debt crisis 

in Europe, which is slowing the recovery of that region’s economy, and from airspace closures during the 

Spring of 2010 stemming from the eruption of volcano Eyjafjallajökull.
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Worldwide air cargo demand resumed in 2010 as world trade volumes picked up from the global economic 

downturn of 2009.6

 According to IATA, worldwide freight ton kilometers were up 21.9 percent for the first 

11 months of 2010 compared to a 12.7 percent drop for the same period in 2009. AEA and AAPA member 

carriers FTK’s were up 8.9 percent and 26.3 percent, respectively, for the eleven months ending November 

2010.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports world air carriers (including U.S. airlines) are 

expected to register an operating profit of $28.8 billion for 2010. IATA estimates global airline industry 

net profits to be $15.1 billion for the same period with all regions expected to be in the black. Based on 

financial data compiled by ICAO and IATA, between 2001 and 2009 world airlines produced cumulative 

operating profits of $14.5 billion (with four years out of nine posting gains) and net losses of $50.9 billion 

(with two years out of nine posting gains).7

6 IATA News Release, November 2010.

7 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2010.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

U.S. Travel Demand

By year end FY 2010, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 16 scheduled mainline air carriers 

that use large passenger jets (over 90 seats), 64 scheduled regional carriers that use smaller piston, 

turboprop, and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide connecting passengers to the larger carriers, 

14 nonscheduled passenger carriers, and 26 all cargo carriers. Mainline and regional carriers provide 

domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional 

carrier international service is confined to border markets in Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) convergence of the network 

and low cost carrier business models; (2) industry consolidation and restructuring, and (3) the proliferation 

of ancillary revenues.

A sign that the business models for the low cost and network carriers groups are converging is the 

narrowing share of capacity flown between these two groups and the fares they charge. After losing 

market share in 2008, partially due to the cessation of operations by two low cost carriers in that year,8

 low 

cost carrier capacity share has been on the rise (up 0.9 points in 2009 and up 0.4 points in 2010). Since 

2000, the share of capacity flown by the low cost carrier group has almost doubled, going from a 17.0 

percent share in 2000 to a 31.6 percent share in 2010. Also narrowing is the gap in average domestic yield 

(a proxy for airfare) reported by the low cost and network carrier groups. In 2000, average domestic yield 

for the low cost carrier group was 12.4 cents versus 14.5 cents for the network carrier group. By 2010, 

low cost carrier yield had increased to 12.7 cents (up 2.4 percent from 2000) while network carrier yield 

dropped to 12.5 cents (down 13.8 percent from 2000).

Industry restructuring and consolidation continued in 2010. Operations at Northwest Airlines were 

folded into Delta Airlines, while operations at Midwest Airlines were folded into Frontier Airlines. For the 

regional carriers, Delta Airlines sold its subsidiaries, Compass and Mesaba, to Trans States and Pinnacle, 

respectively, and Arctic Circle Air merged with ERA Aviation. Announced during 2010 was the merger of 

Continental Airlines with United Airlines, the merger of Southwest Airlines with Air Tran, and the acquisition 

of ExpressJet by SkyWest Airlines. As a result of industry restructuring and consolidation, 53 fewer carriers 

reported traffic to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics in 2010 compared to 2000. Subsequently, 6.4 

percent fewer domestic ASMs were flown and 1.0 percent fewer passengers were carried domestically in 

2010 compared to ten years earlier.

The 6.4 percent reduction in domestic capacity since 2000 has not been shared equally between the 

mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. In 2010, the mainline carrier group provided 15.5 percent 

less capacity than it did in 2000 (and carried 16.1 percent fewer passengers). Conversely, capacity flown 

by the regional group increased 150 percent over the same ten year period (with passengers carried up 

100 percent). The shift in capacity from the mainline carrier group to the regional carrier group emerged 

from several factors. One factor was the type of aircraft flown by the regional carriers, which has been 

transformed from one of predominantly turboprop and piston aircraft to that of 50-90 seat regional jets. 

The transformation of the fleet permitted the regional carriers to fly longer haul routes that were not 

previously accessible with smaller turboprop aircraft. Another factor leading to a shift in capacity was the 

external operating environment. As a result of the terror attacks of September 11 and the record breaking 

fuel prices of 2008 demand for air travel was reduced. To better match demand to capacity, the mainline 

carriers “shed” thin routes to their regional counterparts, which could provide lift at a lower cost. 

8 American Trans Air and Skybus Airlines.
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The most recent trend to take hold is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by 

selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. The industry will post a net 

profit for the first time since 2007, with ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome. 

Commercial Air Carriers — Passengers

After a challenging 2009 which was impacted by the global economic meltdown and the H1N1 flu, U.S. 

commercial air carriers posted improvement to traffic results during 2010, with little change in capacity for 

the year. System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity dropped 0.5 percent to 961.3 billion 

ASMs while RPMs increased 2.2 percent to 786.7 billion. During the same period system-wide passenger 

growth increased 1.2 percent. For the year, mainline carrier passenger growth was up 0.1 percent 

while passenger growth for the regional carriers was up 5.0 percent. In the domestic market mainline 

passengers fell for the seventh time in ten years during 2010 (down 0.7 percent) while mainline passengers 

in international markets posted strong growth (up 5.2 percent). 

Even though the recession was officially over in June 2009,9

 carriers continued to face economic 

uncertainty in 2010 as corporate travel budgets remained strained and double-digit unemployment 

persisted. Capacity reductions instituted in 2009 to counter skyrocketing fuel prices and reduced demand 

for air travel continued into 2010. With fewer seats available to the travelling public, carriers were able to 

raise airfares as demand returned. Initially forecast to lose money for the year, U.S. carriers finished 2010 

with a net profit. 

System load factor and trip length climbed in 2010, as seats per aircraft mile fell. Load factor reached 

a record-breaking 81.8 percent, up 2.1 points from 2009. For the eighth consecutive year, trip length 

increased, up 11.0 miles to 1,104.0 miles. Seats per aircraft mile fell to 139.7 seats (down 0.3 seats per 

aircraft mile). 

9 National Bureau of Economic Research.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity (50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) was down 0.4 percent in 2010 after 

coming off of a decline of 9.0 percent in 2009, the steepest decline recorded since deregulation of the 

industry in 1978. Departures decreased by 1.8 percent for the year after falling 8.6 percent in FY 2009. 

Year-over-year declines in capacity were posted for the first seven months of 2010 with the first quarter 

down 2.3 percent and the second quarter down 1.9 percent. Capacity grew 0.4 percent and 2.2 percent 

year-over-year in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively. Mainline carrier capacity was down 

1.1 percent for the year, while regional carrier capacity was up 4.1 percent. At the end of 2010, domestic 

ASMs were 9.6 percent below pre-recession levels (2007) with departures 12.2 percent below.

Domestic passenger enplanements and RPMs grew at a faster rate than ASMs in 2010. Between the first 

and second quarter, passenger growth went from negative (down 0.1 percent) to positive (up 0.2 percent). 

During the last half of the year growth accelerated, up 1.1 percent in the third quarter and up 1.5 percent 

in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, mainline carrier enplanements were down 0.7 percent 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

18

for the year while the regional carrier enplanements increased 5.0 percent (rebounding from its first postderegulation era decline in 2009).

Similar to passengers, domestic RPMs grew faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs up 1.3 percent in 2010. 

Growth accelerated during the year with the first quarter up 0.4 percent, the second quarter up 0.8 percent, 

and the last half of the year up 1.9 percent (with September posting year-over-year growth of 4.8 percent). 

For the year, mainline carrier RPM growth was up 0.5 percent, while regional carrier growth was up 6.7 

percent. 

Domestic carrier load factor increased 1.3 points to 81.7 percent, with both the mainline and regional 

carriers groups posting record high loads. Mainline carrier load factor increased 1.3 points from 2009 to 

82.7 percent, while regional carrier load factor increased 1.9 points to 76.2 percent.

Since 2000, total domestic capacity has decreased by 6.4 percent. Mainline carriers have reduced their 

domestic capacity by 15.5 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than offsetting the growth of 

low-cost carriers. Making up some of the shortfall from network carrier capacity cuts during this time are 

the regional carriers. This segment of the industry has greatly expanded capacity (up 257 percent from 

2000). During the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have decreased 1.9 percent, while enplanements 

have fallen 15.7 percent. In comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements have increased 228.9 

percent and 103.0 percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen 

from 94.7 percent in 2000 to 85.5 percent in 2010, with their share of RPMs dropping from 95.6 percent to 

86.5 percent during the same period. Regional carriers now fly 1 in every 4 passengers, up from 1 in every 

8 in 2000.
19

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

International Passenger Markets

U.S. carrier ASMs were down 0.7 percent but departures were up 3.6 percent in 2010 as Latin markets 

rebounded from a depressed 2009 due to H1N1. ASM growth in the first half of the year was down 4.7 percent 

year-over-year, but accelerated during the second half of the year to be up 2.9 percent. ASMs increased in the 

Latin and Pacific market, up 5.9 and 0.9 percent, respectively, but decreased 5.2 percent in the Atlantic market.

International RPMs were up 4.3 percent and passenger enplanements were up 5.2 percent in 2010, with the 

growth stronger in the latter half of the year (up 1.4 percent for the first half versus up 6.8 percent during the 

second half for RPMs; up 2.3 percent versus up 7.8 percent for enplanements). The Atlantic market posted a 

decline, with RPMs down 0.3 percent and enplanements down 1.0 percent. RPMs and enplanements increased 

9.3 and 8.6 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while RPMs and enplanements increased 8.3 

and 7.5 percent, respectively, in the Pacific market. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

20

The international load factor surged 4.0 percentage points in 2010 to 82.1 percent, an all-time high. Load factor 

increased in all markets: in the Pacific market up 5.8 points to 84.1 percent; in the North Atlantic market up 4.1 

points to a record high 82.9 percent; and in the Latin America market (up 2.5 points to 79.1 percent).

In 2010, 51.6 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin America market. 

The remaining 48.4 percent of international passengers was split between the Atlantic market (31.7 percent) and 

the Pacific market (16.7 percent).

Commercial Air Carriers—Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international revenue freight/express and mail. The demand 

for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger 

aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers 

face price competition from alternative shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.9 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2010, up 15.7 percent from 2009, with 

domestic cargo RTMs increasing by 8.0 percent (12.8 billion) and international RTMs increasing by 20.6 

percent (23.0 billion). The strong growth in domestic and international RTMs reflects a rebound from the 

recession and the global financial crisis, although RTMS are still 11.4 percent below levels posted in 2007. 
21

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers was 75.7 percent of total RTMs in 2010, with passenger carriers 

flying the rest, or 24.3 percent. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 15.7 percent in 2010, 

from 23.5 billion to 27.1 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers were 8.7 billion in 2010, 16.0 

percent higher than in 2009. 

On August 3, 2007, “Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007” was signed into law. Section 

1602 of this Act states that air cargo placed on passenger aircraft will receive the same level of screening 

as passenger-checked baggage. The legislation went into effect on August 1, 2010, and requires 100 

percent inspection of cargo transported on passenger aircraft at the piece level. The legislation did 

not apply to cargo on U.S. bound passenger flights from overseas or on cargo-only aircraft. However, 

following the discovery of a bomb on an all-cargo plane bound for the U.S., the Air Cargo Security Act was 

introduced on November 16, 2010. The purpose of this Act is to expand the 100 percent cargo screening 

mandate of passenger aircraft to cargo only aircraft.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

2010 Financial Results

U.S. commercial air carriers posted a net profit of $3.0 billion during FY 2010 after reporting a net loss of 

$7.8 billion one year earlier.

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) for FY 2010 were up 7.0 percent from FY 2009. The increase 

in revenue underscored the ability of passenger carriers to push through fare increases and to offer valueadded services that leisure and business passengers were willing to buy. The increase in revenues for 

cargo carriers followed a rebound from the global financial crisis which strengthened demand for air cargo 

services. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

22

During the same period, operating expenses increased 1.6 percent. The slight increase in operating 

expenses during FY 2010 was driven by a 35.5 percent rise in the price of fuel for the year, as well as an 

increase in variables costs resulting from increased demand for passenger and cargo services.

In FY 2010, passenger carriers reported operating income of $7.4 billion and net profits of $1.7 billion, 

while air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $2.1 billion and a net income of $1.3 billion. In the 

domestic market, passenger carriers generated an operating profit of $4.4 billion and a net profit of $0.06 

billion. In the international market, this carrier group posted operating and net profits of $3.0 billion and 

$1.7 billion, respectively. Cargo carriers posted an operating profit of $0.7 billion and a net income of $0.4 

billion in domestic markets. In international markets, the cargo carriers reported operating profits of $1.4 

billion and net income of $0.9 billion. 

The industry’s financial boost is largely due to a turnaround in the performance of the network carriers. 

After two consecutive years (FY 2008-2009) of net losses totaling $27.3 billion, this carrier group finished 

FY 2010 with a net profit of $1.5 billion (and operating profits of $5.0). For the nine reporting low-cost 

carriers, operating profits totaled $1.6 billion and net income totaled $0.6 billion for the full year. 

An upswing in leisure and business demand along with ongoing capacity discipline led to a rebound in 

mainline carrier passenger yield for the year. Domestic mainline carrier passenger yield increased 5.2 

percent in 2010.
23

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Of the reporting regional carriers, operating profits totaled $0.6 billion and net losses totaled $0.6 billion for 

FY 2010. During the same period, regional domestic yield fell 7.5 percent.10 Reflecting the changing nature 

of the industry the network carriers are putting the squeeze on their regional partners by negotiating feefor-departure contracts that shift more of the financial risk of contract flying to the regional carriers. Since 

2000, regional yield is down 59.0 percent in real terms (compared to a drop of 29.7 percent in mainline 

yield for the same period). The drop in regional yield can be attributed to longer trip lengths (due to 

growing number of larger and faster regional jet aircraft entering the fleet) and rising load factors. All other 

things equal, an increase in either the trip length or the load factor results in drop in yield since passenger 

revenues are spread over a broader base of RPMs.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

2010 Aircraft Fleet

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers are retiring 

older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing them with more 

technologically advanced 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90 

seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is estimated at 7,096 

for 2010, a decrease of 126 aircraft from 2009. This includes 3,713 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft 

(over 90 seats), 806 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and 2,577 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops, 

and pistons). 

10 Yield is defined as passenger revenues divided by RPMs. Passenger revenues include payments received by regionals from mainline partners 

for contractual flying.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

24

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet increased by 4 aircraft in 2010, the first increase in the size of 

the fleet since 2007, as low cost carriers added to their narrow body fleet while network carriers added a 

modest number of wide body aircraft. Despite the rise in the fleet in 2010, the mainline carrier fleet stands 

at 17.3 percent below (775 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. Since reaching a peak of 2,830 aircraft in 2005, 

the regional fleet has shrunk by 253 aircraft.

General Aviation

Despite signs of economic recovery, the general aviation industry suffered through a difficult 2010. Based 

on figures released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) through the 3rd quarter, 

U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered an estimated 1254 aircraft in CY 2010, 20.9 

percent fewer than in CY 2009. This translates into a third consecutive year of decline in shipments. The 

turbine categories, turbojets and turboprops, were down an estimated 43.2 and 20.4 percent, respectively. 

Overall piston deliveries declined 6.7 percent, with single-engine down 10.7 percent while the much smaller 

multi-engine category rose 88.8 percent. Billings in CY 2010 are estimated to have totaled $8.1 billion, 

down 11.2 percent compared with 2009.
25

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

General aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities posted mixed results in 2010. Operations at combined 

FAA and contract towers declined 5.1 percent in 2010, continuing a decade long trend. General aviation 

activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 1.9 percent, while the number of general 

aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers rose by 3.4 percent. 

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 

Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. This 

survey has been conducted annually since 1977. Beginning with the CY 2004 Survey there were significant 

improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent samples 

for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand 

under Part 135. In addition, the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (19 categories), FAA 

region (9 categories), and whether the aircraft was owned by an entity certified to fly Part 135 operations 

(2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow owners/operators of 

multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an additional aircraft 

category (light sport aircraft) was added. The result of these changes was the sample size nearly doubled. 

Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22.8 percent, total 

rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in many categories 

occurred. The results of the 2009 Survey, the latest one available, are consistent with the results of past 

surveys since 2004. This reinforces our belief that methodological improvements have resulted in superior 

estimates relative to those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast. 

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization along with GAMA aircraft 

shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estimated to have increased 0.1 percent in 2010, to 

224,172. With the increase in the active fleet, general aviation flight hours are estimated to have increased 

1.2 percent in 2010 to 24.1 million. 

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Student pilot numbers 

had been in decline for many years but in 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity 

for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 60 months. As a result, 

according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student 

pilots at the end of 2010 increased by 64.8 percent, or approximately 47,000 pilots, compared to calendar 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

26

year end 2009. The impact of the new rule on the long term trends in student pilots has yet to be fully 

determined. The average age of a U.S. pilot in 2010 was 44.2 years old.

FAA Workload

In 2010, FAA facilities experienced their third straight year of decline in activity. Commercial air traffic 

activity fell during the first seven months of the year as carriers restrained capacity in response to 

weakened demand. The decline in noncommercial activity is attributed to a lackluster economy and rising 

fuel prices.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports was 51.2 million operations in 2010, down 3.2 

percent from 2009 and 25.4 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. Commercial activity 

(the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers fell by 1.3 percent 

in 2010. Air carrier operations were down 1.4 percent while commuter/air taxi operations declined 1.1 

percent. Commercial operations in 2010 were 15.4 percent lower than their peak in 2005. 

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract towers fell 

by 4.6 percent in 2010, with general aviation activity (26.6 million) down 5.1 percent and military activity (2.6 

million) up 0.9 percent. General aviation activity has declined in ten of the eleven years since 1999. 

At the end of 2010, non-commercial aircraft activity was 31.8 percent below the activity in 2000.

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the “Core 35” airports. These airports represent the 

top 35 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except PIT) and account for about 75 percent 

of commercial passengers. Commercial activity at the Core 35 airports peaked in 2005, but subsequent 

industry restructuring has resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since. In 

2010, commercial activity at the Core 35 airports fell by 1.0 percent from the previous year and was 12.9 

percent below 2005 activity levels. Of the Core 35 airports, 21 recorded decreases in activity from 2009 

with the largest declines occurring at Cincinnati (down 19.5 percent) and St. Louis (down 13.2 percent). 
27

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

The largest increases in activity occurred at MIA (up 5.3 percent), and ORD (up 4.5 percent). Only 4 of the 

Core 35 airports exceeded 2005 peak activity levels during fiscal year 2010, unchanged from 2009, and 

down from 13 airports in 2008. 

Since 2005 there has been a pronounced shift in demand which is reflected in the relative growth of 

commercial operations across the Core 35 airports. Commercial operations at San Francisco (up 12.5 

percent), New York-Kennedy (up 12.2 percent), and Denver (up 12.1 percent), are up the greatest relative to 

their 2005 activity levels. Commercial operations at Cincinnati (down 64.1 percent), and Pittsburgh (down 

50.5 percent) show the largest declines from 2005 levels. These activity level shifts reflect the impact of the 

restructuring of the airline industry. Delta’s bankruptcy and subsequent merger with Northwest resulted in 

a consolidation of operations away from its Cincinnati hub, while the merger of US Airways and America 

West has led to a dramatic shrinking of US Airways’ operations in Pittsburgh.

In 2010, total activity at FAA en route centers (40.5 million) increased 0.5 percent from the previous year. 

Commercial activity was relatively flat (down 0.02 percent), with air carrier operations down 0.3 percent 

and commuter/air taxi operations up 0.7 percent. Non-commercial activity was up 3.4 percent for the year 

as general aviation activity increased 3.4 percent and military activity decreased 0.4 percent. In 2010, air 

carrier operations were 10.6 percent below their 2000 activity levels and air taxi/commuter operations were 

6.4 percent above activity levels for 2000. Operations for the general aviation and military user groups were 

25.1 and 28.9 percent below their 2000 activity levels, respectively.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

28
29

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

FAA AEROSPACE FORECAST FISCAL YEARS 

2011 – 2031

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the aviation 

industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the process is filled with 

uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Once again, the U.S. aviation industry has shown that the 

demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent downward spiral created by the Great 

Recession. With the start of 2011, lingering questions remain. Are the U.S. and global economies on firm 

ground? Is it plausible that evolving structural changes will revamp the industry from one of boom-to-bust 

to one of sustainable profits? Will industry consolidation continue?

After 25 consecutive months11 of reductions in year-over-year domestic capacity, carriers posted capacity 

growth in each of the last five months of 2010. The restraint in capacity led to record high load factors and 

recovery in yield, despite lackluster passenger demand. Yield is expected to show continued strength in 

2011 as carriers remain fervent in matching capacity to demand.

Given the current state of the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and strength of 

a recovery in aviation demand. Nevertheless, the FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts 

consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently taking place within the aviation 

industry. The FAA is confident that these forecasts accurately predict future aviation demand, however due 

to the large uncertainty of the operating environment the variance around the forecasts is wider than in 

prior years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that explain 

and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the commercial 

aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to 

handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not assume further contractions of the industry 

through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing the 

commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published in the Official 

Airline Guide (OAG). To generate the short-term forecast (one year out) current monthly trends are used in 

conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity and 

demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar years 2011. The medium 

to long-term forecasts (2012-2031) are based on results of econometric models. 

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts and the results of the 2009 

General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. The assumptions have been updated by FAA analysts to 

reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information from industry experts. 

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, who 

are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their comments and/or 

suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.

11 April 2008 through April 2010.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

30

Economic Forecasts

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by Global Insight, Inc. 

to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world and individual country economic 

projections provided by Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the demand for international aviation services. 

Annual historical data and economic forecasts are presented in tabular form in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. 

economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government fiscal year (October through September) basis. 

International forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis.

Data suggest that unemployment hit its highest point in the first quarter of FY 2010 (up 10.0 percent) and 

will likely remain above 9.0 percent through 2012. Global Insight expects the recovery to be modest by 

historical standards with the economy plagued by continued levels of high debt, a weak housing market, 

and tight credit. How these issues are resolved will determine the future path of the recovery. On the bright 

side, prior fears of a double-dip recession are unlikely to be realized.

The boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus and inventory buildup are withering, leaving the economy 

to depend on underlying strength in private final demand. On a quarter-by-quarter basis for the next two 

years U.S. economic growth is projected to range from a low of 2.1 percent in 3Q FY 2011 to a high of 3.4 

percent in 1Q FY 2012. 

Consumer spending is by far the largest component of the U.S. economy. Burdened by high debt and 

rising unemployment, consumer spending increased only 1.3 percent in 2010. The recovery in consumer 

spending is projected to be modest with increases of 2.3 percent in both 2011 and 2012 as households 

continue their struggle to reduce debt burdens and rebuild retirement assets.

In the medium term, (the four year period between 2012 and 2016), U.S. economic growth is projected 

to average 3.0 percent per year with rates ranging between 2.9 and 3.1 percent. Consumption growth 

remains muted during the same period (up an average of 2.3 percent). For the balance of the forecast 

period, U.S. real GDP growth slows to around 2.7 percent annually and consumption increases to 2.5 
31

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

percent annually. The long-term stability of U.S. economic growth is dependent continued growth in the 

workforce and capital stock, and improved productivity. 

After increasing by 35.5 percent in 2010, Global Insight projects the price of oil as measured by the 

Refiners’ Acquisition Cost to be $74.40 per barrel in 2011 (up 0.4 percent from 2010). Oil prices are 

forecast to rise to just over $100 per barrel by 2018 and then gradually fall to just over $95 per barrel 

by 2023. For the remainder of the forecast period oil prices are projected to grow faster than inflation, 

reaching $113.09 per barrel by 2031. 

After rising 1.7 percent in FY 2010, spurred by continued economic growth, the inflation rate (as measured 

by the CPI) is expected to rise 1.1 percent in 2011 and 1.8 percent in 2012. After 2012, consumer price 

inflation is projected to grow between 1.8 and 2.1 percent per year for the balance of the forecast. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

32

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast uses high and 

low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. The high and low economic growth cases are 

based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios from Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released third quarter 

2010). The high economic growth case incorporates higher population growth, capital spending, and 

productivity relative to the base case. Due to the higher productivity, inflation is lower than in the base 

case. Real GDP growth in the high case averages 3.2 percent annually compared to real GDP growth of 

2.7 percent annually that is contained in the base case. The low economic growth case incorporates lower 

population growth, capital spending, and productivity than the base case. In contrast, in the low economic 

case, inflation is higher than in the base case due to lower productivity growth. Real GDP growth in the 

low case averages 2.2 percent annually over the forecast horizon. Further details about the high and low 

scenarios can be found in Appendix A.

World Economy

After weathering the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression during 2009, worldwide 

economic activity is estimated by Global Insight to have expanded by 3.7 percent in 2010. The advanced 

economies (U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan) posted growth in output ranging from 1.8 percent to 

2.9 percent. The emerging market economies grew 6.6 percent, 5.0 points higher than in 2009 with 

the economy of China up 10.2 percent, India up 8.2 percent, Brazil up 7.3 percent, and Russia up 3.6 

percent. In 2011, economic growth is projected to slow (up 3.3 percent) as weak household finances, 

sluggish employment growth, and constrained banking sectors of the advanced economies prevent global 

aggregate demand from growing fast enough to offset weakness from inventory accumulation and the 

decline of stimulus spending. Beyond 2011 through the balance of the forecast period world real GDP is 

projected to increase an average of 3.3 percent per year. 

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions will continue to have the world’s highest economic growth 

rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at annual rates of 4.6 and 4.2 percent 

a year, respectively, over the forecast period. In Asia, China, with a population of 1.3 billion, is forecast 

to grow 7.1 percent a year, becoming the world’s second largest economy by 2014 (surpassing Japan). 
33

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

India, with a population of 1.2 billion, is projected to see its GDP quadruple in size, growing at an average 

rate of 6.8 percent a year during the forecast period. In contrast, Japan grows at just 0.8 percent a year 

over the forecast horizon as structural impediments and an aging population limit growth. Canadian and 

Western European GDP growth is anticipated to rise at more moderate rates of 2.3 and 1.7 percent a year, 

respectively, over the forecast period.

Aviation Traffic and Activity Forecasts

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional carriers) are 

contained in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts. 

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are contained in Tables 10 

through 18, 20, and 22. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts. 

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 23 through 26. These tables provide yearto-year historical and forecast data.

Table 19 provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 21 provides year-toyear historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 27 through 30. These tables provide year-to-year historical 

data and forecasts.

Tables 31 through 33 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. 

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to grow 4.5 percent in 2011. In the domestic market, mainline carrier capacity 

is forecast to grow for the first time in three years (up 2.8 percent) while capacity for the regional carriers 

grows at a faster pace (up 3.8 percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast to increase in all 

markets — Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific. Mainline carrier system capacity grows 4.6 percent, while regional 

carrier capacity grows 3.8 percent. 

Passenger demand shows moderate to strong growth in 2011 with system RPMs forecast to grow 

4.9 percent (up 5.0 percent for mainline carriers and up 4.3 percent for regional carriers) as passenger 

enplanements increase 3.5 percent (up 3.5 percent for mainline carriers and up 3.4 percent for regional 

carriers). Growth is projected to slow slightly in 2012 with system RPMs and passengers increasing 4.3 

and 3.4 percent, respectively, on a capacity increase of 3.8 percent. For the overall forecast period, system 

capacity is projected to increase an average of 3.6 percent a year. Supported by a growing U.S. economy 

and falling real yields, system RPMs are projected to increase 3.8 percent a year, with regional carriers (4.2 

percent a year) growing faster than mainline carriers (3.7 percent a year). System passengers are projected 

to increase an average of 2.8 percent a year, with regional carriers growing at the same rate as mainline 

carriers. By 2031, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 2.0 trillion ASMs and transport 1.3 billion 

enplaned passengers a total of 1.7 trillion passenger miles.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

34

Planes will remain crowded, with load factor projected to grow moderately during the early years of the 

forecast period and then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.7 percent in 2031 (up 2.9 points). 

Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by more than 235 miles over the forecast period to be 1,342.0 

miles in 2031 (up 11.3 miles annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in the 

relatively longer international and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

Domestic Markets

After declining for three consecutive years, domestic capacity in FY 2011 is projected to grow (up 2.9 

percent). Mainline carrier capacity is up 2.8 percent in FY 2011 with low-cost carriers expected to grow at 

a faster pace than their network counterparts. Regional carriers are slated to grow 3.8 percent in FY 2011, 

following growth of 4.1 percent in FY 2010. Domestic commercial carrier capacity picks up in 2012 (up 

3.5 percent) with mainline carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 3.3 percent versus 4.9 percent, 

and then increases at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent for the balance of the forecast. For the entire 

forecast period, domestic capacity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent, just 

slightly faster than economic growth, with mainline carriers growing slower (2.8 percent per year) than the 

regional carriers (4.1 percent per year). 
35

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

The slow pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. moderates RPM growth during 2011, the first year 

of the forecast (up 3.5 percent). Traffic growth is projected to be stronger in the first half of the year as it 

rebounds from reduced levels posted in 2010 due to the sluggish economy. Mainline carrier RPMs are 

projected to increase 3.4 percent during 2011, while regional carrier RPMs grow 4.3 percent. By 2012, 

traffic growth improves with RPMs up 3.9 percent as the economic recovery gains momentum. Driven by 

economic growth and falling real yield, domestic RPMs grow 3.1 percent a year for the remainder of the 

forecast. For the overall forecast period domestic RPMs are projected to grow an average of 3.1 percent a 

year. Mainline carriers are projected to grow more slowly than the regional carriers throughout the forecast 

period (averaging 3.0 percent versus 4.2 percent a year, respectively). 

Enplanements are forecast to grow 3.0 percent in 2011 following a 0.7 percent increase in 2010. Similar 

to RPMs, passenger volume is expected to pick up in 2012 (up 3.2 percent) in response to a strengthening 

economy, and then grow at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year for the period 2013-2031. Over the 

entire forecast period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

36

percent with mainline carriers growing more slowly than regional carriers (2.4 versus 2.8 percent a year, 

respectively). 

Reduced capacity combined with returning passenger demand ignited pricing power for the carriers 

during 2010, with nominal yield increasing 3.2 percent (up 1.4 percent in real terms). Temperate capacity 

growth combined with moderate demand will lift fares higher in 2011, for an increase in nominal yield of 

3.1 percent (2.0 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, nominal yield is projected to increase 

at an average rate of 1.3 percent a year, while in real terms they are projected to decline at an average 

rate of 0.6 percent a year. The decline in real yields over the forecast period assumes technological 

improvements, competition between carriers, and convergence of cost structures between network carriers 

and their low-cost counterparts. The convergence in cost structures between the carrier groups arises 

from gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel inefficient aircraft and hold the line on labor costs 

while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work forces, and unionization. 

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow more slowly 

than passenger traffic over the forecast period (2.1 percent per year for departures versus 3.1 percent for 

RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three operational measures—aircraft size, load factor, 

and trip length.

Even though aircraft size increased on an individual basis for both the mainline and regional carrier groups 

in 2010, average aircraft size remained relatively flat at 121.8 seats for the year, highlighting the decreasing 

share of capacity flown by the mainline carriers relative to their regional counterparts. Mainline carrier 

aircraft size increased 0.7 seats with the grounding of older, fuel inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 737-

300/400/500). Regional aircraft size increased by 1.0 seat with the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as 

larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft entered the fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft increases in 2011 (up 0.2 seats). 

Over the course of the forecast, domestic seats per aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 123.9 

seats by 2031, an average of 0.1 seats per year. 

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier fleet plans, 

publicly known aircraft order books and FAA’s expectations of the changing domestic competitive 

landscape. In the near-term (through 2011), the forecast incorporates several assumptions: 1) mainline 

carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) network carrier “own metal” service on longer-haul 

routes; 3) the retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 4) the shifting of widebody and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 5) growing use of 70-90 seat regional jet 

aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft in their 

domestic route networks with smaller, next generation, narrow-body aircraft. In addition, some carriers 

are turning to smaller aircraft like the 100-seat Embraer 190 to supplement their route structure. The use 

of smaller narrow-body aircraft allows mainline carriers to better serve their customers by increasing flight 

frequency, and to improve profitability by more closely matching supply (the number of seats) with demand 

(the number of passengers).

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2010 by 0.7 seats to 151.9 seats, and is projected to 

increase by 0.1 seats in 2011. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is projected to increase an 

additional 0.1 seats in 2012 to be 152.1 seats, and then gradually increase for the balance of the forecast. 

Overall, average aircraft size for the mainline group will increase by only 1.6 seats between 2010 and 2031, 

going from 151.9 to 153.5.
37

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a much faster pace than the 

mainline carriers. The faster growth in aircraft size for regional carriers is stimulated by the wave of 70-

90 seat regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as reductions in the 50-seat and under jet 

fleet. Regional carriers are better equipped to support operations of their mainline partners by providing 

capacity that complements market demand. The greater number of the larger 70-90-seat regional jets 

in the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet retirements over the next few years increases the average 

seating capacity of the regional fleet from 56.2 seats in 2010 to 57.0 seats by 2012. Over the course of the 

forecast, average seats per aircraft for the regional carriers increases an average of 0.5 seats per year to 

66.0 seats in 2031. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the size and aircraft types 

operated by the mainline and regional carriers.

 

Commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 1.3 points during FY 2010 to an all-time high of 

81.7 percent, with record load factors posted by the mainline and regional carrier groups. The mainline 

carrier group posted a load factor of 82.7 percent, up 1.3 percentage points from 2009. Load factor for 

the regional carriers increased 1.9 points to 76.2 percent. In 2011, domestic load factor is forecast to 

increase 0.4 points to 82.2 percent as mainline and regional carrier load factor each increase by 0.4 points. 

Thereafter, commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to be 84.0 percent by 2031.

In 2010 domestic passenger trip length increased 5.2 miles to 874.9 miles, after decreasing 3.8 miles 

in 2009. Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by 4.6 miles in 2011 and by 6.0 miles in 2012 as 

carriers continue to restructure their networks and realign capacity. After 2012, trip length is projected to 

steadily increase for the balance of the forecast, reaching 987.0 miles by 2031. The increase in trip length 

reflects longer trips flown by the mainline and regional carrier group. Mainline carrier trip length increases 

as thinner, shorter haul markets are relinquished to regional partners and replaced with flying of longer 

domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or 

reduced as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously 

accessible with only mainline equipment. 

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of connecting 

versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry 

restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels 

can vary significantly.

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) passengers over time 

to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the 

average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers 

fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry 

varied within a narrow band between 1995 and 2002. After 2002, the ratio trailed downward until the end 

of 2008. The decline in the ratio during this six year period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by 

the network carriers and rising passenger share for the low-cost carriers. The uptick in the ratio started 

again in 2009 (1.34 enplanements for every O&D passenger) and continued into 2010 (1.35 enplanements 

for every O&D passenger), and highlights the retrenchment by carriers as fuel costs skyrocketed and 

demand for air travel plummeted. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of domestic traffic 

connectivity and these trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger enplanement totals.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

38

International Markets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand (the sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers) 

for travel between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico 

and the Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific--as well as for U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. These forecasts are 

based on historical passenger statistics from the United States Immigration and Naturalization Services 

(INS) and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic projections from Global 

Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 149.6 

million in CY 2010, 1.4 percent higher than in 2010. Passenger demand strengthens in 2011 (up 3.1 

percent) and accelerates in 2012 (up 5.7 percent) as the world economic recovery solidifies. For the 

balance of the forecast period, stable worldwide economic growth leads international passengers to grow 

at an average rate of 4.5 percent a year, totaling 373.9 million in 2031. 

In the Latin America region, sustained economic growth drives passenger growth to average 5.1 percent a 

year over the entire forecast period. The highest growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 

8.1 percent) while the largest market in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 5.4 percent a year. The 

slowest rates of growth are projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 

0.2 and 2.8 percent a year, respectively). 

Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific market boost passenger demand an average of 5.0 percent per 

year. India, Taiwan and China (passenger growth of 8.8, 7.8, and 7.4 percent a year, respectively) are 

forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the region. Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most 

established in the region) is projected to be well below the regional average at 2.3 percent a year.

In the mature Atlantic market, open skies between the European Union and the United States and 

competition between global airline alliances helps to fuel passenger growth of 3.9 percent a year over the 
39

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

forecast period. Over the 21-year forecast horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top three 

Atlantic markets-- the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, is 4.2, 3.7, and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic U.S. market 

(2.4 percent), averaging 3.4 percent a year over the forecast period.

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

In 2010, international U.S. commercial air carrier capacity fell for the second consecutive year, down 0.7 

percent from 2009. However, the overall decline in international capacity was heavily weighted by the 

performance of the Atlantic market (down 5.2 percent) versus the performance of the Latin market (up 5.9 

percent—supported by a rebound from H1N1) and Pacific market (up 0.9 percent). The capacity reduction 

in the Atlantic region highlights the imapct from airspace closures due to volcanic ash and the sluggish 

recovery of the U.S. and European economies compared to those of the Latin and Pacific regions. In 2011, 

strong demand and flourishing competition between global alliances boosts capacity 8.4 percent (up 9.7, 

8.7 and 6.1 percent, respectively, in the Atlantic, Pacific and Latin markets). Capacity is projected to grow 

an additional 4.4 percent in 2012, fueled by stronger economic growth projected for all world regions, 

and averages 4.8 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast period. Strong growth over the forecast 

period reflects favorable U.S. and world economic activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

40

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs and enplanements increased 4.3 percent and 5.2 percent, 

respectively, in 2010. The strong growth in RPMs and passengers relative to capacity underscores the 

commitment by carriers to restrain capacity as demand resumed. An increase in RPMs for the Latin 

market (up 9.3 percent) and Pacific market (up 8.3 percent) offset a modest decline in the Atlantic market 

(down 0.3 percent). In 2011, U.S. carrier international RPMs increase 8.4 percent led by growth in the 

Pacific market (up 8.8 percent) and followed by growth in the Atlantic (up 8.7 percent) and Latin markets 

(up 7.6 percent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase an average 4.8 percent a year with the 

fastest growth in the Latin region. A similar pattern is forecast for enplanement growth. International 

enplanements are projected to increase 7.8 percent in 2011, and then grow 4.6 percent in 2012. Over the 

balance of the forecast period, enplanements are forecast to increase an average of 4.3 percent a year with 

the fastest growth in Pacific and Latin markets (up 4.9 and 4.7 percent a year, respectively).
41

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Growth in U.S. carrier international passengers (4.5 percent a year) compared to total international 

passengers (4.6 percent a year excluding the US-Canada transborder market) reflects a small decline in 

market share for U.S. airlines over the forecast period. Forecasts of international demand assume U.S. 

and foreign flag carriers will benefit from the favorable economic activity in both the United States and 

world markets. 

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 82.1 percent in 2010. Load factor is expected to 

remain flat in 2011 as stronger capacity growth relative to traffic growth in the Atlantic market is offset by 

stronger traffic growth relative to capacity growth in the Pacific and Latin markets. International load factor 

is projected to increase 0.5 points in 2012 as traffic growth exceeds capacity growth in all three world 

markets. Load factor rises slowly through the remainder of the forecast to be 83.2 percent in 2031.

International passenger real yields for mainline carriers were up 8.1 percent in 2010 as the rebound in 

passenger demand from the global recession outpaced capacity growth. The largest increase was in 

the Atlantic market (up 11.6 percent), followed by the Pacific (up 9.2 percent) and Latin market (up 1.3 

percent). Buoyed by growing passenger demand, international real yields are projected to increase 5.0 

percent in 2011 and then increase by 0.6 percent in 2012. For the remainder of the forecast period, real 

yield decreases an average of 1.0 percent a year. In nominal terms, international yields are forecast to 

increase 6.2 percent in 2011, and 2.4 percent in 2012 and then grow at an annual rate of 1.0 percent over 

the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive pressures and technological 

improvements will hold the line on fare increases. 

Commercial Air Carriers — Air Cargo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are fuel price 

volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have occurred in the air 

cargo industry. Among these changes are air cargo security regulations by the FAA and TSA; maturation 

of the domestic express market; shift from air to other modes (especially truck); use of all-cargo carriers 

(e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail; and increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., 

e-mail). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo 

industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of 

the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to 

economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic cargo 

RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo RTMs 

were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger 

carriers and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in 

industry structure, and market assumptions. 

Total RTMs are forecast to grow 5.6 percent in 2011 and again in 2012 by 7.4 percent. For the balance of 

the forecast period, driven by steady economic growth, total RTMs are forecast to increase at an average 

annual rate of 4.5 percent. The forecast of 93.2 billion RTMs in 2031 represents an average annual increase 

of 4.7 percent over the entire forecast period. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

42

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 4.2 percent in 2011 and 6.1 percent in 2012, driven by a 

recovery in the U.S. economy. Between 2012 and 2031, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase 

at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent. The forecast of 22.7 billion RTMs in 2031 represents an average 

annual increase of 2.8 percent over the entire forecast period.

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. Thus, the 

growth of this segment in the future will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic 

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (electronic mail). 

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 70.0 percent in 2000 

to 87.4 percent in 2010. This is because of significant growth in express service by FedEx and United 

Parcel Service coupled with a lack of growth of domestic freight/express business for passenger carriers. 

The all-cargo share is forecast to increase to 89.6 percent by 2031 based on increases in capacity for allcargo carriers and security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs are forecasted to rise 6.4 percent in 2011 reflecting a recovery from the global 

economic downturn and grow 8.1 percent in 2012 as trade expands. For the balance of the forecast 

period, international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 5.3 percent a year based on 

projected growth in world GDP. The forecast 70.5 billion RTMs in 2031 represents an average annual 

increase of 5.5 percent over the entire forecast period. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 

69.1 percent in 2010. Beyond 2010, the all-cargo share of RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 

75.2 percent by 2031
43

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,096 in 2010 to 10,523 in 2031, an average 

annual growth rate of 1.9 percent or 163 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is projected to increase 

by 23 aircraft in 2011 after shrinking by 126 aircraft in 2010 as the slow recovery in demand and rising fuel 

prices prompted carriers to prune their fleets. Since 2007, the US commercial airline fleet has contracted 

by 648 aircraft. In comparison, the US commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft between 2000 and 

2003, the last downturn in aviation.

The number of passenger jets in the mainline carrier fleet increased by 4 aircraft in 2010 but is expected to 

fall another 19 aircraft in 2011 as network carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. After 2011, the mainline air carrier passenger fleet increases an average of 110 aircraft a year over 

the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 5,888 aircraft in 2031. The narrow-body fleet (including 

E-190’s at JetBlue and US Airways) is projected to grow by 69 aircraft annually over the period 2010-2031; 

the wide-body fleet grows by 34 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350’s enter the fleet. 

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to increase by 31 aircraft in 2011 as increases in larger 

regional jets offset reductions in 50 seat and smaller regional jets. After 2011, the regional carrier fleet is 

expected to increase by an average of 39 aircraft (1.3 percent) over the remaining years of the forecast 

period, totaling 3,384 aircraft in 2031. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers 

is projected to grow from 1,771 in 2010 to 2,764 in 2031, an average annual increase of 2.0 percent. All 

the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 and 90-seat aircraft. During the 

forecast period, all regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of 

scope clauses. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to shrink from 806 units in 2010 to 620 in 2031. 

Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to account for just 18.3 percent of the regional carrier passenger 

fleet in 2031, down from a 31.3 percent share in 2010. 

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 34 aircraft over the next 2 years (from 806 to 840 aircraft 

in 2012), and total 1,251 aircraft in 2031. The narrow-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 7 aircraft a 

year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service. The widebody jet fleet is projected to increase by 14 aircraft yearly. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

44

General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston, 

turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, light sport, experimental and other (which 

consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles). The FAA forecasts “active aircraft,”12 not total aircraft. The 

FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity 

Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with 

the 2004 GA Survey there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. Coinciding with 

the changed survey methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in the number 

of aircraft and hours flown. The results of the 2009 GA Survey are consistent with the results of surveys 

since 2004, reinforcing our belief that the methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates 

relative to those in the past. Thus, they are used as the basis for our forecast. Because results from the 

GA Survey are not published until the following year, the 2009 statistics are the latest available. Figures 

for 2010 are estimated based on other activity indicators, and the forecasts of activity begin in 2011 and 

continue through 2031.

After growing rapidly for most of the past decade, the demand for business jet aircraft has slowed over 

the past few years. While new product offerings, the introduction of very light jets, and increasing foreign 

demand have helped to drive this growth in the earlier part of the decade, the past few years have seen 

the hard impact of the recession on the business jet market. Despite the impact of the recession felt in the 

business jet market, the forecast calls for robust growth in the long term outlook, driven by higher corporate 

profits and continued concerns about safety/security and flight delays, increasing the attractiveness of 

business aviation relative to commercial air travel and predicts business usage of general aviation aircraft 

will expand at a faster pace than that for personal/recreational use. 

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent over the 

21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 224,172 in 2010 to 270,920 aircraft by 2031. The more 

expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average 

of 3.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 4.2 percent a year.

12 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.
45

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from the 2009 

total of 160,623 through 2018, with declines in both single and multi-engine fixed wing aircraft, but with the 

smaller category of piston-powered rotorcraft growing. Beyond 2018 active piston-powered aircraft are 

forecast to increase to 168,140 by 2031. Over the forecast period, the average annual increase in pistonpowered aircraft is 0.2 percent. Although piston rotorcraft are projected to increase at a faster rate (2.9 

percent a year), they are a relatively small part of this segment of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine 

fixed-wing piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to grow at a much slower rate 

(0.3 percent) while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projected to decline 0.9 percent a year. In 

addition, it is assumed that new light sport aircraft could impact the replacement market for traditional 

piston aircraft. 

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA’s aircraft registry counts) 

was created: “light sport” aircraft. At the end of 2009 a total of 6,547 active aircraft were estimated to be 

in this category. The forecast assumes the fleet will increase approximately 450 aircraft per year until 2013. 

Thereafter the rate of increase in the fleet tapers considerably to about 300 per year. By 2031 a total of 

13,870 light sport aircraft are projected to be in the fleet. 

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 2.2 percent yearly over the forecast 

period. FAA is projecting that in 2012 and 2013 above average growth in hours will occur as utilization rates 

for certain aircraft types will rebound from low utilization rates experienced in 2009 and return to normal 

levels, particularly in the turbine jet category. As with previous forecasts, much of the long term increase in 

hours flown reflects strong growth in the rotorcraft and turbine jet category. Hours flown by turbine aircraft 

(including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 3.7 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with 0.8 

percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours 

flown increasing at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in 

jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with measured recovery in 

utilization rates from recession induced record lows. Rotorcraft hours, which were less impacted by the 

economic downturn when compared to other categories, are projected to grow by 2.9 percent yearly. The 

light sport aircraft category is expected to see increases in hours flown on average of 5.4 percent a year, 

which is primarily driven by growth in the fleet.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

46

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 527,660 in 

2031, an increase of over 42,000 (up 0.4 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Commercial pilots are 

projected to increase from 123,705 in 2010 to 136,300 in 2031, an average annual increase of 0.5 percent. 

The number of student pilots is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent over the 

forecast period, increasing from 119,119 in 2010 to 120,600 in 2031. In addition, FAA is projecting that by 

the end of the forecast period a total of 12,850 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2009, the 

number of sport pilot certificates issued was 3,682 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot 

certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at an average 

yearly rate of 0.3% over the forecast period to total 214,500 in 2031.

FAA Workload Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 510 FAA (264) and contract towers (246) totaled 51.2 million operations in 2010, down 3.2 

percent from 2009. Activity is projected to decrease 0.6 percent in 2011, as declines in non-commercial 

operations more than offset increases in commercial activity. Growth in total activity at FAA and contract 

towers resumes in 2012 (1.6 percent) and for the balance of the forecast, activity grows at an average rate 

of 1.6 percent per year, reaching 69.3 million operations in 2031.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity (up 2.1 

percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to increase 2.6 percent in 2011 as carriers begin to restore 

flights following the 2009 recession. Beyond 2011, air carrier activity is projected to increase an average 

of 2.3 percent per year over the forecast period. Commuter/air taxi operations are forecasted to rise 1.9 

percent in 2011 then increase 1.6 percent a year for the balance of the forecast period. 

General aviation activity fell 5.1 percent in 2010 with steep declines in both itinerant (down 4.5 percent) and 

local (down 5.9 percent) activity. Activity is projected to fall again in 2011 (down 3.1 percent) reflecting 

the continuing impact of the 2009 recession before rising modestly in 2012 (up 1.2 percent) as a growing 

economy promotes the growth of flight hours and operations despite higher oil prices. For the entire 

forecast period, general aviation activity at towered airports is projected to increase an average of 1.0 

percent a year, to 32.9 million operations in 2031. General aviation activity at combined FAA/contract 

towers grows in line with the modest increase forecasted for general aviation piston hours already cited. 

Most operations at the smaller towers are in piston aircraft, while those at the largest airports tend to be 

turbine operations. 

Military activity rose 0.9 percent in 2010 to 26 million operations and is projected to remain at that level 

throughout the forecast period.

Operations13 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 1.2 percent in 2010, the sixth year 

in a row. They are projected to rise 0.1 percent in 2011 as increased commercial activity offsets continued 

declines in non-commercial activity. After 2011, TRACON operations are forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 1.8 percent for the balance of the forecast. For the entire forecast period, TRACON 

operations grow an average of 1.7 percent per year, totaling 55.3 million in 2031. 

13 TRACON operations consist of itinerant IFR and VFR arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR 

and VFR overflights.
47

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to increase at 2.1 

percent per year with increases in air carrier activity surpassing commuter/air taxi activity. General aviation 

operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 1.2 percent a year, reflecting the relatively slow growth 

in the general aviation fleet and hours. Military activity is expected to remain at its 2010 level (2.4 million) of 

activity throughout the forecast period.

En Route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers increased 0.5 percent to 40.5 

million in 2010, highlighted by a 3.4 percent increase in general aviation activity. En route center activity 

is forecast to increase by 2.4 percent in 2011 in the wake of increased commercial and general aviation 

activity. After 2011, through the balance of the forecast period, en route activity increases 2.3 percent 

annually, reaching 65.4 million aircraft handled in 2031. Over the entire forecast period, commercial activity 

is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, reflecting increases in the commercial 

fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is projected to grow 1.5 

percent per year, reflecting growth in business aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2010 activity 

level throughout the forecast period.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

48

Activity at FAA en route centers is growing faster than at FAA towered airports because more of the activity 

in en route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general 

aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at FAA towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is 

local in nature, and does not impact the centers
49

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

 UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

International industry development, growth, and investment over the past several years have allowed 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to evolve from remotely piloted vehicles with limited capabilities to 

semi and fully autonomous systems for commercial applications. There are some 100 U.S. companies, 

academic institutions, and government organizations developing over 300 UAS designs. Currently, the U.S. 

government uses unmanned aircraft for military combat, surveillance, and reconnaissance. 

The UAS term is used because it includes the entire system (aircraft, data links, control station and other 

elements). UAS’s also vary widely in size, shape, and capabilities. Some unmanned aircraft weigh 1,900 

pounds and can remain aloft for 30 hours or more, because there is no need for them to land to change 

pilots. Some are 6 inches long. Others can perform dangerous missions without risking loss of life. 

In its broadest context, there are three major market segments: military, civil government, and commercial. 

While market drivers and dynamics among these segments differ significantly, they share common 

objectives: to provide a service that cannot be accomplished by manned aircraft and/or to perform an 

existing manned operation at a lower cost. The investments and the technological advances in UAS’s made 

by military organizations have generated a growing interest in their potential use for civil, government, 

scientific research, and commercial applications. Federal agencies are planning to increase their use of 

UAS’s and state and local governments envision using UAS’s to aid in law enforcement and firefighting. 

The FAA has worked with the Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) comprised of industry, associations, 

and other government agencies. The ARC delivered the recommendations to the FAA that would address 

the operation Unmanned Aircraft under 55 pounds within the National Airspace. The FAA is in the process 

of drafting regulations to facilitate: certification of pilots; registration of aircraft; approval of sUAS (small 

unmanned aircraft systems) operations when required; and define sUAS operational limits, best practices, 

and regulatory approach for all sUAS. 

Once enabled, commercial markets will develop in markets such as real estate photography and aerial 

inspections. These sUAS could perform missions with less noise and fewer emissions than manned aircraft. 

Once the regulatory structure is in place and markets emerge within the regulatory framework, a viable fleet 

will develop. 

Based upon the expected regulatory environment, FAA is projecting a fleet of 10,000 active sUAS in five 

years. In ten years, the fleet is projected to increase to 25,000 units and grows to 30,000 units by 2030. 

With the safe integration of sUAS into the National Airspace system, both civil and commercial applications 

will develop and UAS have the potential to become a major component of commercial aviation within the 

United States.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

50

 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) licenses and 

regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites 

authorized by Executive Order 12465 and 49 US Code, Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial 

Space Launch Act). Title 49 and the Executive Order also direct the Department of Transportation (carried 

out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and 

regulate commercial launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health 

and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. 

Overview

Commercial space transportation primarily consists of commercial launch service providers launching 

satellites into orbit for either commercial or government customers. Commercial space transportation also 

includes suborbital launches, where a payload or a vehicle is launched on a trajectory that briefly enters space 

but returns to Earth without entering orbit. Finally, it includes the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most frequently 

used vehicles are: 

• Atlas V, an intermediate- to heavy-class vehicle (depending on variant) built by United Launch Alliance 

(ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Lockheed Martin 

Commercial Launch Services;

• Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, and the Delta IV, an intermediate- to heavy-class vehicle (depending 

on variant), both built by ULA and marketed by Boeing Launch Services (BLS);

• Falcon 1, a small launch vehicle, and the Falcon 9, an intermediate- to heavy-class vehicle (depending 

on variant), built and operated by Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX); 

• Pegasus and Taurus, two small-class vehicles built and operated by Orbital Sciences Corporation 

(Orbital); and,

• Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye for the multinational Sea 

Launch AG venture, which conducts launches from a floating launch platform, with Long Beach, CA as 

its home port.

The Falcon 9 vehicle by SpaceX accomplished a successful inaugural flight on June 4, 2010, and its first 

Commercial Orbital Transportation System (COTS) Dragon demonstration mission on December 8, 2010. 

The medium-class Taurus II by Orbital is currently under development, its first launch planned for 2011. 

From 1989 through the end of 2010, DOT/FAA has licensed 204 orbital and suborbital commercial 

launches.

FAA first granted Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, in 

2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Other permits have been granted for vehicles participating 
51

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

in the Lunar Lander Challenge. This is a competition to demonstrate technologies potentially applicable to 

both future lunar spacecraft and commercial suborbital vehicles, with $2 million in prizes offered by NASA’s 

Centennial Challenges program.

Eight commercial spaceports, located in six states, Alaska, California (Vandenberg Air Force Base and 

Mojave Air and Space Port), Florida (Cape Canaveral and Cecil Field Spaceport), New Mexico, Oklahoma, 

and Virginia, currently have FAA launch site operator licenses. Several other commercial spaceports around 

the United States are under development.

Review of 2010

There were four FAA-licensed launches, all orbital, in 2010, down from five in 2009. BLS performed two 

launches, one Delta IV launch of meteorological GOES P satellite for NOAA and a Delta II launch of the 

Cosmo-Skymed 4 Earth observation satellite for the Government of Italy. SpaceX successfully performed 

the inaugural launch of Falcon 9 carrying Dragon demo payload in June and the first in a series of NASA 

COTS Dragon capsule demonstration launches in December. 

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches, 2009-2011

2009 2010 2011 Forecast

Licensed Launches 5 4 5-8

Permitted Launches 0 0 5-10

Worldwide there were 23 orbital commercial launches in 2010, compared to 24 in 2009. In addition to 

the four FAA-licensed launches, Europe performed six commercial launches of its Ariane 5, and Russia 

conducted thirteen commercial launches of various vehicles. There were 74 total worldwide commercial, 

civil, and military launches in 2010, with commercial launches representing approximately 31 percent of the 

total. For more details, see the Year in Review report available online at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/.

Global Forecast

In May 2010, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 

published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2010 Commercial Space 

Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 27.6 commercial orbital launches per year of 

geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2019. That annual 

average includes 15.7 launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 9.1 launches of 

medium-to-heavy vehicles to NGSO, and 2.8 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

52

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 2,000 to over 

6,000 kilograms. There has been an increase in the number of GSO satellites that are larger and more 

complex; however, there is still a demand for smaller satellites. Demand for commercial NGSO launches 

spans a number of markets, including commercial remote sensing; science and technology demonstration; 

and replenishment and replacement of low Earth orbit communications satellite systems reaching the end 

of their lifespan. The majority of commercial NGSO launches for science and technology demonstration 

missions are for nations that do not have indigenous launch capability.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but instead represent 

the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The complete forecast report is 

available at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

RISKS TO THE FORECAST 

In the short term the FAA is confident that its current outlook for aviation demand and activity can be 

achieved. However, this year’s forecast is driven by a number of factors including security, as well as the 

strength of the economic recovery. As numerous recent incidents (the attempted bombing of a Northwest 

airliner on Christmas Day 2009, the discovery of multiple devices on cargo flights out of Europe in 

October, 2010) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to achieving the forecast. Because 

of aviation’s high visibility and global reach, concerns remain about international terrorism. Any terrorist 

incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation 

services. 

While oil prices were considerably higher in 2010 than they were in 2009 (though lower than in 2008), there 

is still considerable uncertainty as to the level of oil prices once the economic recovery is on firmer ground. 

FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus released 

third quarter 2010) calls for steady increases in oil prices after 2010. The increases are relatively modest, 

with the price of oil approaching $100/barrel by 2018 and remaining around that level through 2026, 

and then increasing gradually for the remainder of the forecast. Some forecasters are calling for a much 

sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2011 Annual 

Energy Outlook is projecting oil prices to exceed $100/barrel by 2015-2016 and continue rising over the 

next 20 years, reaching $165-$175 per barrel in 2030. While lower oil prices give consumers an impetus 

for additional spending, including air travel, and increases the chances for industry profitability, higher oil 

prices could lead to further shifts in consumer expenditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery 

in air transport demand. Furthermore, higher oil prices, especially in the near term, could wipe out any 

chance of industry profitability, continue to pressure airline costs, delay balance sheet improvement and 

discourage expansion plans or new orders for aircraft as carriers focus on maintaining and increasing cash 

balances. 

Although the global economy has begun to grow again, data suggest that a two track recovery is emerging, 

with growth concentrated in a relatively few countries. As a result, the ensuing economic recovery may not 

be a balanced one and there is considerable doubt about the strength and sustainability of the expansion. 

The baseline forecast assumes that growth in China will be significantly higher than in the other large 

economies – U.S., Japan and the European Union. Doubts remain over the strength of demand in the 

U.S., Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic 

problems and institutional constraints. In addition, many countries in the European Union are beginning to 

implement contractionary policies, aimed at reducing the growth in government and personal debt, which 

could hamper the economic recovery in the region. Furthermore the steps that were taken to turn the 

global economy around may prove to be excessive, since the resulting surge in liquidity growth seems to 

be inflating asset bubbles and exacerbating existing global imbalances. Once the global economy recovers 

from the current downturn, there could be an increasing risk from asset bubbles and macroeconomic 

imbalances, which could end up in a deeper, more prolonged, and less manageable recession and financial 

crisis. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and 

other world regions. Any slowing of global economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in world 

passenger demand.

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisition (M&A) is mixed. For network carriers, 

aside from American and USAirways, there is little scope for further consolidation. Much excitement 

has been generated in the low cost carrier sector with the announced merger between Southwest and 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

54

AirTran, and lots of material has been written about additional possible combinations involving other low 

cost carriers. But there are significant obstacles to further consolidation in the low cost carrier sector. 

In particular the financial condition of many low cost carriers limits the possibilities of additional merger 

activity. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of a merger transaction or the amount of financial risk 

associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely, in our view. However, US airlines are 

exploring other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the US are members of 

global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity from the US DOT. While anti-trust 

immunity may provide flexibility to airline operators across borders, it may create an anti-competitive 

environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity 

provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will 

complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of regional jets into the fleet of regional carriers. 

However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to those of the larger network carriers. As 

demand continues to slowly recover, increased financial pressures on regional operators have appeared. 

Furthermore, as consolidation has occurred among the network carriers, certain regional carriers have 

found themselves either saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of feed traffic. 

The experience of the Delta/Northwest combination and the impending United/Continental combination 

may see opportunities for regional flying substantially reduced.

 

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation saw a partial 

recovery in 2010. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation are largely based upon the 

future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators 

could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Public perception of business 

and corporate aviation, potential environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security 

measures placed on business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new 

entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates show that a record number 

of new business jet deliveries are overseas and, with the potential easing of regulations on the use of 

airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet manufacturers looks all the more promising. 

Raising the amount of security restrictions, and subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, 

could make corporate jet travel increasingly appealing. 

The mix of aircraft operating at most large hubs is also expected to become increasingly complex 

over the forecast period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will 

increase the complexities of the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. The 

increased complexity of the mix of aircraft serves to compound the increases in workload strictly due to the 

increasing demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period. 

Although activity at most U.S. airports fell in 2010, delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. 

airports. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit 

to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload are unconstrained in that 

they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the 

infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts 

of both demand and workload would not be achieved. The Department of Transportation and the FAA are 

examining a number of options to manage congestion, but the specific measures to be implemented, and 

therefore their impact, are unknown at this time.
55

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the ability of 

the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new 

construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. 

Concerns about the climate impacts of aviation emissions continue to grow. Although aviation currently 

accounts for 2 to 3 percent of climate change impacts, greenhouse emissions from the sector are 

expected to increase with the growth in operations unless aggressively mitigated with new technology, 

renewable fuels, operational improvements and market measures. Some market measures intended 

to control emissions, e.g., various emissions trading systems and charges being discussed, could add 

significant costs to the aviation sector that could effectively reduce available funds for needed investments 

in new technology. Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security 

issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of progress 

on improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet can drive more restrictions via 

standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service--which in turn can depress growth By contrast, 

breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable fuels could reduce environmental and 

energy constraints on the forecast, and enable sustainable growth.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

56

APPENDIX A 

ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS

Uncertainty abounds in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. Increasingly, the 

FAA has been requested to provide alternative scenarios to their baseline forecasts. These requests come 

from policy makers, private industry, associations, and consultants. This year, the FAA has responded to its 

customers, fully understanding that more information, not less, will help stakeholders to better prepare for 

the future.

To create the baseline forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international regions from Global 

Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released third quarter 2010) were used to generate enplanements, mainline 

real yield and nominal yield. The baseline forecast of passenger trip length (an input variable used to 

forecast mainline real yield) was derived from recent historical trends and analyst judgment. To develop 

the alternative scenarios, assumptions from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in Global 

Insight’s 30-Year Focus were used. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the baseline scenario 

inputs to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. The baseline forecast trip length 

was adjusted in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on the movement of oil prices in Global 

Insight’s alternative forecasts relative to the baseline forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by GDP Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP 

for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts of 

GDP described above in order to create a high and low case

Scenario Assumptions

FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and suffers no 

major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, or financial meltdowns. In 

the alternative scenarios, the economy is postulated to proceed smoothly as well, however at a different 

pace than projected under the baseline forecast. Projections for economic growth in Global Insight’s 

alternative scenarios are rooted in demographics. In Global Insight’s optimistic forecast scenario, 

population grows more rapidly than in the baseline due to higher net immigration. The reverse is true 

for the pessimistic forecast; population grows more slowly than the baseline forecast due to slower net 

immigration.

FAA’s high case forecast uses Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast is characterized 

by lower inflation and faster growth in the labor force and capital stock than in the baseline forecast. In this 

scenario productivity growth is higher and potential output climbs more rapidly, with GDP growing about 

0.5 percentage points quicker per year than the baseline forecast and unemployment averaging 0.4 points 

lower on an annual basis than the baseline (GDP and unemployment are used as an input variables to the 

FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements). Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses Global 

Insight’s pessimistic scenario. The pessimistic forecast is characterized by higher inflation and slower 

growth in the labor force and capital stock than in the baseline forecast. In this scenario, the U.S. economy 

grows 0.5 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline due to slower productivity and lower 

potential output growth, and unemployment, on average, is 0.3 points higher on an annual basis than in the 

baseline. 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

The level of oil prices are determinants in the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact 

on the profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices remain high by historical standards. 

In the baseline forecast, oil prices rise as the world economy recovers from the recession, but are kept in 

check as technological improvements act as a counterbalance to rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners 

acquisition cost (RAC) of oil increases 52.6 percent between 2010 and 2031, rising from $74 to $113 

per barrel. In the high case, RAC increases at a slower pace landing at $102 per barrel at the end of the 

forecast period. The high case is characterized by availability of energy and gains in technology which help 

to temper prices compared to the baseline. In the low case forecast, scarcity of oil and lower productivity 

gains create upward pressure in oil prices. In this scenario, RAC more doubles, rising to $157 by 2031. 

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. 

In the high case forecast the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate of 1.5 percent per year 

(compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy prices, wages, and import prices 

grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the low case forecast the opposite assumptions hold with energy 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

58

prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline. In the low case, CPI grows 

an average of 3.3 percent annually over the forecast period. 

The baseline passenger trip length forecast is predicated upon analyst judgment and recent trip length 

trends. Carrier behavior as a result of volatile fuel prices during 2008 was the basis for adjusting trip 

length in the alternative forecasts. During 2008, high fuel costs made flying of some longer haul routes 

cost prohibitive (thus unprofitable), resulting in lower trip length compared to prior years. Since the FAA’s 

low case forecast is depicted by higher fuel prices relative to the baseline forecast, it is assumed that trip 

length rises at a slower pace than in the baseline forecast. In FAA’s high forecast, fuel prices are lower than 

projected in the baseline, pushing trip length up as lower fuel prices make flying longer-haul routes more 

affordable.

Alternative Forecasts

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent 

per year over the forecast horizon (with domestic and international passengers up 2.6 and 4.5 percent, 

respectively), reaching one billion passengers in the year 2021. In the high case, passengers grow at a 

quicker pace, averaging 3.3 percent per year (up 3.0 percent domestically and 5.2 percent internationally). 

This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. In the high case, one 

billion passengers are forecast for 2019, two years earlier than predicted in the baseline forecast. The low 

case is characterized by increased costs of capital resulting from higher interest rates, weakened consumer 

confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow 

an average of 2.3 percent per year (domestic up 2.0 percent and international up 4.0 percent). In the low 

case, one billion passengers are reached in 2024, three years behind the baseline forecast.
59

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

Revenue Passenger Miles

The forecast of RPMs is produced by multiplying assumptions for trip length in each forecast scenario by 

passengers from the same scenario. Thus, the assumptions used to create the trip length and passenger 

forecasts drive RPM growth. In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 

3.8 percent per year, with domestic RPMs up 3.1 percent annually and international RPMs up 5.0 percent 

annually. In the high case, a more optimistic economic environment drives RPMs higher than the baseline, 

with growth averaging 4.5 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.8 and 5.8 percent, 

respectively). In the low case, a more pessimistic economic environment slows RPM growth to an average 

of 3.1 percent annually (up 2.4 percent domestically and up 4.5 percent internationally).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

60

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.7 percent annually over the 21-

year forecast horizon (with average growth of 3.0 percent domestically and 4.9 percent internationally). In 

the high case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging growth of 4.4 percent 

annually (up 3.7 percent domestically and up 5.7 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity 

compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought about by a more 

favorable economic environment. In the low case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus 

system capacity grows at a slower pace of 3.0 percent annually (domestic up 2.3 percent annually and 

international up 4.4 percent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 21-year forecast period are relatively the same for all three forecast scenarios, 

rising from 81.8 percent in 2010 to 83.7 percent in 2031. In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers 

will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet 

demand (passengers). The domestic load factor slowly grows from 81.7 percent to 84.0 percent over the 

forecast horizon, while the international load factor grows from 82.1 to just over 83.2 percent during the 

same period.

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.3 percent annually, going from 13.0 cents in 2010 

to 16.9 cents in 2031. On a domestic basis, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.0 cents in 2010 to 

17.1 cents in 2031, while international yield rises from 12.9 cents to 16.8 cents. System yield rises more 

slowly in the high case, up 0.7 percent annually to be 15.1 cents at the end of the forecast period (domestic 

and international yield increase to 14.8 cents and 15.6 cents, respectively). The slower growth in yield in 

the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and 

lower inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market fares are 

driven lower than baseline levels due to increased market overlap between low cost and legacy carriers. 
61

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on 

fares. In the low case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.9 

percent annually, reaching 23.5 cents by 2031 (24.4 cents domestically and 22.1 cents internationally). 

This scenario reflects higher inflation than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover 

the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital. 

Passenger Trip Length

Over the 21-year forecast horizon, baseline system passenger trip length is assumed to grow an average of 

10.5 miles per year. In the high case, passenger trip length grows 1.0 mile faster per year than in the base 

case at 11.5 miles per year. In the high case, fuel prices are lower than in the baseline which allows carriers 

to operate longer-haul routes more profitably. Conversely, the low forecast is characterized by fuel prices 

that are higher than the baseline forecast. Higher fuel costs makes flying longer-haul routes less affordable 

to the carriers; hence passenger trip length trails the baseline forecast by 3.0 miles per year, growing an 

average of 7.5 miles per year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–203

1

62

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS*

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2031

Variable Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2001 2011 2016 2021 2031 10-11 10-16 11-21 10-31

EconomicAssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product(BIL 05$)Refiners Acquisition Cost -Average - $ Per BarrelReal Personal ConsumptionExpenditures - (BIL 05$)Consumer Price IndexAll Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0Real Disposable Income(BIL 05$)Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

13,150 13,162 13,164 

74.5 74.1 74.0 

9,241 9,247 9,249 

2.18 2.17 2.17 

10,170 10,177 10,179 

9.9 9.7 9.7 

13,317 13,467 13,610 

77.5 74.4 71.9 

9,370 9,462 9,516 

2.21 2.20 2.19 

10,277 10,366 10,427 

10.2 

9.6 9.2 

14,972 15,601 16,215 

101.1 

96.1 90.8 

10,205 10,584 10,966 

2.53 2.43 2.37 

11,499 11,758 12,068 

7.0 6.6 6.2 

16,681 17,818 19,009 

108.6 

96.8 89.6 

11,288 11,973 12,794 

2.99 2.68 2.57 

13,184 13,560 14,251 

5.3 5.0 4.7

20,875 23,147 25,417 

157.3 113.1 101.9 

14,040 15,404 16,965 

4.29 3.24 3.00 

16,817 17,501 18,663 

5.2 5.0 4.6

1.3%2.3%3.4%4.0%0.4%

-2.8%

1.4%2.3%2.9%1.4%1.4%0.9%1.1%1.9%2.4%

0.3

-0.1-0.5

2.2%2.9%3.5%5.2%4.4%3.5%1.7%2.3%2.9%2.5%1.9%1.5%2.1%2.4%2.9%

-0.5-0.5-0.6

2.3%2.8%3.4%3.4%2.7%2.2%1.9%2.4%3.0%3.1%2.0%1.6%2.5%2.7%3.2%

-0.5-0.5-0.5

2.2%2.7%3.2%3.6%2.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%2.9%3.3%1.9%1.6%2.4%2.6%2.9%

-0.2-0.2-0.2

* Source: Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2010
63

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE

A-2

FAA FORECAST

OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVIT

Y

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2031

Variable

Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2010 2011 2016 2021 2031 10-11 10-16 11-21 10-31

DomesticAviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles(BIL)Revenue Passenger Miles(BIL)Enplanements(MIL)Miles Flown(MIL)Departures(000s)Nominal Passenger 

Yield

(cents)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

680.1 680.1 680.1 555.8 555.8 555.8 635.3 635.3 635.3 

5,582.2 5,582.2 5,582.2 8,911.7 8,911.7 8,911.7 

13.02 13.02 13.02 

682.3 700.0 712.9 560.3 575.2 585.8 637.3 654.0 664.4 

5,606.7 5,739.3 5,850.7 8,879.9 9,094.5 9,237.4 

13.49 13.43 13.37 

799.4 847.8 892.3 665.0 705.7 742.6 740.7 777.3 809.0 

6,567.8 6,950.2 7,322.2 

10,036.5 10,500.9 10,918.5 

15.39 14.52 13.95 

908.5 992.2 

1,079.3 

759.7 830.3 903.0 830.5 887.9 946.8

7,439.4 8,109.2 8,829.2 

11,009.3 11,724.1 12,480.1 

17.82 15.35 14.25

1,092.6 1,265.0 1,451.3 

917.2 

1,062.9 1,219.2 

970.9 

1,076.9 1,190.6 8,833.6 

10,213.0 11,727.9 12,402.0 13,679.1 15,073.0 

24.37 17.05 14.83

0.3%2.9%4.8%0.8%3.5%5.4%0.3%3.0%4.6%0.4%2.8%4.8%

-0.4%

2.1%3.7%3.6%3.1%2.7%

2.7%3.7%4.6%3.0%4.1%4.9%2.6%3.4%4.1%2.7%3.7%4.6%2.0%2.8%3.4%2.8%1.8%1.2%

2.9%3.6%4.2%3.1%3.7%4.4%2.7%3.1%3.6%2.9%3.5%4.2%2.2%2.6%3.1%2.8%1.3%0.6%

2.3%3.0%3.7%2.4%3.1%3.8%2.0%2.5%3.0%2.2%2.9%3.6%1.6%2.1%2.5%3.0%1.3%0.6%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

64

TA

BLE

A-3

FAA FORECAST

OF INTER

NATIO

NAL AVIATION ACTIVIT

Y

FISCAL YEARS 2010-2031

Variable

Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2010 2011 2016 2021 2031 10-11 10-16 11-21 10-31

InternationalAviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles(BIL)Revenue Passenger Miles(BIL)Enplanements(MIL)Miles Flown(MIL)Departures(000s)Nominal Passenger 

Yield

(cents)

PessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimisticPessimisticBaselineOptimistic

281.2 281.2 281.2 230.9 230.9 230.9 

77.4 77.4 77.4 

1,299.7 1,299.7 1,299.7 

568.0 568.0 568.0 12.90 12.90 12.90 

303.1 304.9 307.0 248.6 250.3 252.1 

82.9 83.4 84.0 

1,392.6 1,401.6 1,411.5 

582.3 586.7 591.6 13.69 13.69 13.69 

382.3 388.3 410.4 316.4 321.3 339.5 103.0 104.5 110.8 

1,737.2 1,765.2 1,865.2 

698.5 710.4 752.5 15.11 14.61 14.36

468.3 491.5 540.5 388.4 407.6 447.9 123.7 129.5 142.9 

2,108.2 2,213.2 2,432.9 

816.3 855.4 942.5 17.03 15.32 14.78

690.4 774.0 898.3 574.6 644.2 746.4 175.4 195.2 226.3 

3,054.4 3,423.3 3,971.0 1,104.8 1,228.8 1,423.2 

22.06 16.76 15.63

7.8%8.4%9.2%7.7%8.4%9.2%7.1%7.8%8.5%7.1%7.8%8.6%2.5%3.3%4.2%6.1%6.1%6.1%

5.3%5.5%6.5%5.4%5.7%6.6%4.9%5.1%6.2%5.0%5.2%6.2%3.5%3.8%4.8%2.7%2.1%1.8%

4.4%4.9%5.8%4.6%5.0%5.9%4.1%4.5%5.5%4.2%4.7%5.6%3.4%3.8%4.8%2.2%1.1%0.8%

4.4%4.9%5.7%4.4%5.0%5.7%4.0%4.5%5.2%4.2%4.7%5.5%3.2%3.7%4.5%2.6%1.3%0.9%
65

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

APPENDIX B 

FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only 

statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge 

and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s 

annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not 

surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA 

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. 

Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable 

variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast metrics 

during the FY 2006-2010 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced industry upheaval, 

FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior 

periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the 

accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the actual 

results for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast 

variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the 

“3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 13.0 percent for ASM 

forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for 

FY 2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010 occurred in FY 2004, FY 2005, FY 2006, and FY 2007, 

and FY 2008, respectively.14

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

Forecast

Variable

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2006 - FY 2010)

(Forecast Variance from Actual)

Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

ASMs 0.7% 6.5% 13.0% 15.2% 18.8%

RPMs 0.9% 4.0% 8.4% 10.4% 10.6%

Pax Enplanements 0.7% 4.5% 9.3% 10.0% 11.3%

Mainline Pax Yield 3.6% 5.6% 6.7% 6.1% 8.3%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 3.3% 8.7% 13.2% 14.4% 15.5%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

14 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

66

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. 

Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast 

is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative 

variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. 

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined show 

declining variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest variances were 

found in the forecasts of ASMs and passengers, the two variables most directly affected by exogenous 

events. Second, the relative divergence in forecast variances between RPMs and ASMs suggests errors 

in forecasting load factor. Third, the ASM forecast variance being larger than the RPM forecast variance 

indicates a consistent underestimation of load factor, one of the critical elements in converting passenger 

demand into aviation activity. All other things being equal, large variances in forecasts of load factor will 

lead to large variances in the long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can been seen in the variances of 

the IFR aircraft handled forecasts.
67

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

APPENDIX C 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of 

Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following individuals were 

responsible for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers:

– Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236

– Cargo Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236

General Aviation:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

– Survey Data Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

FAA Workload Measures:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

– Data Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division, APO-100

Unmanned Aircraft 

Systems: Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Commercial Space: John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, 

AST-100 (202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation: Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff 

Forecast Conference 

Planner: Linda Baranovics (202) 267-7924

APO Websites:

– Forecasts/Statistical 

 Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

– APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email:

– APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

68
69

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

FORECAST TABLES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

70

TA

BLE 1

U.

S. S

HORT-TERM ECO

NOMIC FORECASTS

ECONOMIC

VARIABLE

FISCAL 

YEAR 2011 FISCAL 

YEAR 2012

1ST. QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.

Real GDP(Billions of 2005$)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateRefiners’ Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateConsumer 

Price Index1

(1982-84 equals 100)Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

13,345.1

2.2%

70.10

-5.9%

218.7

1.0%

13,432.9

2.7%

74.00

24.2%

219.6

1.6%

13,503.5

2.1%

75.47

8.2%

220.2

1.2%

13,585.8

2.5%

78.04

14.3%

221.2

1.7%

13,699.9

3.4%

79.75

9.1%

222.2

1.8%

13,800.6

3.0%

81.65

9.9%

223.3

2.1%

13,896.7

2.8%

82.49

4.2%

224.3

1.7%

14,002.8

3.1%

83.34

4.2%

225.4

2.0%

Source: Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2010.
71

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE 2

U.

S. LO

N

G-TERM ECO

NOMIC FORECASTS

FISCALYEAR

GROSS

DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(Billions 2005$)

CONSUMER PRICE

INDEX

(1982-84=100)

REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

AVERAGE

(Dollars per barrel)

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

11,145.912,553.812,898.313,153.213,321.312,874.313,161.513,466.813,850.014,254.514,694.715,155.315,600.816,038.716,460.316,891.517,346.717,818.318,328.518,846.419,356.919,898.920,433.720,957.321,482.022,006.022,569.723,146.8

1.7%2.3%2.8%2.7%

170.74193.48200.58205.31214.43213.77217.45219.91223.81228.34233.11237.96242.73247.61252.74257.82262.79267.73272.54277.42282.66288.07293.62299.33305.34311.47317.66323.70

2.4%1.1%1.9%1.9%

26.7047.2059.9460.62

101.52

54.6874.1174.4081.8185.7488.8292.3496.0898.1999.7699.3697.6196.7696.1795.3096.3698.33

100.31102.38105.13108.19110.89113.09

10.8%

0.4%2.8%2.0%

Source: Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Third Quarter 2010.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

72

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

CALENDAR

YEAR

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

CANADA

EUROPE/

AFRICA/

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA/

MEXICO

JAPAN/PACIFIC

BASIN/CHINA/OTHER

ASIA/AUSTRALIA/

N. ZEALAND

WORLD

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

1,000.21,134.11,166.11,191.81,197.91,168.41,202.41,229.81,265.91,301.31,335.11,368.01,400.51,432.11,464.31,496.81,528.01,559.81,591.81,625.01,658.01,691.81,727.81,764.81,803.81,844.61,887.11,928.6

1.9%2.3%2.4%2.3%

15,335.917,113.917,769.418,376.918,584.717,961.118,350.418,744.619,195.519,688.220,215.120,772.421,304.021,829.522,355.422,890.023,433.623,986.224,540.025,099.225,665.226,239.326,823.127,417.228,021.428,631.929,255.429,891.2

1.8%2.1%2.5%2.4%

2,459.22,810.22,962.83,120.63,240.93,173.73,317.53,462.13,617.73,780.23,952.94,122.94,305.34,490.24,681.74,881.15,085.75,298.85,518.95,746.85,982.76,227.86,482.66,746.27,018.37,302.07,595.77,899.9

3.0%4.4%4.4%4.2%

9,056.4

11,060.211,688.112,447.412,823.012,960.613,768.114,404.215,131.115,928.416,783.517,658.418,552.019,450.320,373.321,323.922,301.423,308.724,342.225,408.426,521.827,681.128,869.230,108.631,374.732,672.834,006.235,381.4

4.3%4.6%4.9%4.6%

39,799.345,750.147,639.349,533.350,308.249,290.551,043.352,583.754,425.256,375.458,478.560,608.862,748.464,878.467,026.169,234.871,497.373,832.376,239.878,691.381,208.783,826.586,478.489,199.591,967.394,797.497,730.1

100,732.4

2.5%3.0%3.4%3.3%

Source: Global Insight, World Overview, Third Quarter 2010.
73

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE 4

INTER

NATIO

NAL GDP FORECASTS — SELECTED AREAS

/COUNTRIES

CALENDAR

YEAR

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

AMERICA

(NAFTA)

EUROZONE UNITED

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

12,993.614,621.315,033.015,341.115,361.414,922.615,332.815,683.316,176.016,660.517,198.117,716.718,242.418,759.819,266.019,791.120,329.820,898.021,501.022,102.922,710.823,349.723,975.724,600.925,226.425,866.326,550.727,242.1

1.7%2.3%2.9%2.8%

9,394.5

10,121.210,439.310,734.010,770.610,333.810,492.110,626.010,789.510,975.011,184.311,408.211,619.711,825.812,028.612,234.312,439.812,649.212,856.313,064.013,274.913,486.813,701.713,919.114,138.914,357.514,578.214,803.3

1.1%1.3%1.7%1.7%

2,014.82,279.32,342.82,405.72,404.22,286.42,324.32,362.32,413.22,474.32,537.62,609.32,674.02,737.62,801.72,866.72,932.92,998.93,063.13,128.03,193.13,258.83,326.03,396.53,467.53,538.53,612.13,688.0

1.4%1.6%2.4%2.2%

4,271.94,557.34,650.44,758.24,701.14,454.64,575.34,617.94,701.34,800.94,901.54,984.45,051.85,096.75,130.45,159.15,183.85,204.15,222.65,240.65,258.55,276.05,293.65,312.05,330.75,348.15,364.45,380.8

0.7%0.9%1.3%0.8%

1,417.22,257.12,543.72,904.93,183.73,474.13,829.14,158.44,496.24,884.85,316.75,768.46,240.86,728.57,241.87,778.58,338.38,931.99,540.6

10,176.110,845.711,544.712,259.813,008.613,766.914,541.515,336.516,161.5

10.5%

8.6%8.1%7.1%

Source: Global Insight, World Overview, Third Quarter 2010.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

74

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

641.2669.5668.4690.1680.7630.8635.3654.0675.0700.3726.2752.5777.3800.9822.2843.5866.3887.9908.1928.1947.0966.0984.6

1,003.01,021.31,039.11,057.71,076.9

-0.1%

3.0%3.2%2.5%

56.467.471.675.378.373.677.483.487.291.195.499.9

104.5109.3114.1119.0124.2129.5135.2141.0147.0153.4159.9166.5173.3180.3187.7195.2

3.2%7.8%4.8%4.5%

697.6737.0740.0765.3759.1704.4712.6737.4762.2791.4821.6852.5881.8910.2936.3962.5990.5

1,017.41,043.31,069.11,094.01,119.31,144.41,169.61,194.71,219.41,245.41,272.1

0.2%3.5%3.3%2.8%

512.8 573.2 582.4 600.5 594.6548.6555.8575.2597.7624.0651.2679.1705.7731.4755.5779.6805.6830.3854.0877.7900.6923.9946.6969.4992.3

1,014.91,038.51,062.9

0.8%3.5%3.8%3.1%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.8221.3230.9250.3263.0275.9290.3305.6321.3337.5354.0371.1388.9407.6427.4447.8469.2491.7514.9539.0563.8589.4616.3644.2

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

694.6770.4790.9821.7828.5769.9786.7825.6860.7899.9941.6984.7

1,027.01,069.01,109.51,150.81,194.51,237.91,281.41,325.61,369.81,415.61,461.51,508.41,556.11,604.31,654.91,707.2

1.3%4.9%4.3%3.8%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
75

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCAL

YEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

726.6755.2740.2752.5749.6682.5680.1700.0724.8754.4785.3817.3847.8877.4905.2933.2963.4992.2

1,019.81,047.51,074.41,101.61,128.31,155.11,181.91,208.51,236.31,265.0

-0.7%

2.9%3.5%3.0%

512.8573.2582.4600.5594.6548.6555.8575.2597.7624.0651.2679.1705.7731.4755.5779.6805.6830.3854.0877.7900.6923.9946.6969.4992.3

1,014.91,038.51,062.9

0.8%3.5%3.8%3.1%

70.675.978.779.879.380.481.782.282.582.782.983.183.283.483.583.583.683.783.783.883.883.983.983.984.084.084.084.0

239.3248.5261.3275.9292.7283.3281.2304.9318.4333.9351.1369.4388.3407.6427.4447.8469.1491.5515.1539.6565.1591.9619.7648.4678.0708.6740.8774.0

1.6%8.4%5.3%4.9%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.8221.3230.9250.3263.0275.9290.3305.6321.3337.5354.0371.1388.9407.6427.4447.8469.2491.7514.9539.0563.8589.4616.3644.2

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

76.079.479.880.279.978.182.182.182.682.682.782.782.882.882.882.982.982.983.083.083.083.183.183.183.183.283.283.2

965.9

1,003.61,001.51,028.41,042.4

965.8961.3

1,005.01,043.11,088.21,136.51,186.71,236.01,285.11,332.51,381.01,432.51,483.71,534.91,587.11,639.41,693.61,748.01,803.51,859.91,917.01,977.12,039.1

0.0%4.5%4.1%3.6%

694.6770.4790.9821.7828.5769.9786.7825.6860.7899.9941.6984.7

1,027.01,069.01,109.51,150.81,194.51,237.91,281.41,325.61,369.81,415.61,461.51,508.41,556.11,604.31,654.91,707.2

1.3%4.9%4.3%3.8%

71.976.879.079.979.579.781.882.182.582.782.983.083.183.283.383.383.483.483.583.583.683.683.683.683.783.783.783.7

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

76

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

(Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

20.921.622.524.126.024.724.526.627.828.830.031.132.333.434.535.736.938.239.540.942.343.745.146.648.049.551.152.8

1.6%8.7%4.2%3.7%

24.332.535.237.639.136.840.042.944.847.049.351.754.357.059.762.465.368.471.674.978.482.085.789.693.597.5

101.8106.1

5.1%7.2%5.0%4.8%

11.213.213.913.613.212.012.913.914.615.316.117.018.018.919.920.921.923.024.125.226.427.729.030.431.833.334.836.3

1.5%7.7%5.4%5.0%

56.467.471.675.378.373.677.483.487.291.195.499.9

104.5109.3114.1119.0124.2129.5135.2141.0147.0153.4159.9166.5173.3180.3187.7195.2

3.2%7.8%4.8%4.5%

87.189.593.9

102.2112.7108.9108.6118.0123.9129.1135.0141.0147.0152.9158.9165.1171.5178.2185.4192.7200.1207.9215.8223.8231.9240.2249.1258.2

2.2%8.7%4.7%4.2%

36.348.653.657.760.757.763.167.971.375.480.185.090.495.9

101.8107.8114.2120.9128.0135.6143.6152.1161.0170.2179.8189.7200.2211.1

5.7%7.6%6.1%5.9%

58.459.261.161.460.454.759.264.467.871.475.379.684.088.693.498.3

103.3108.5113.9119.6125.5131.6138.1145.0152.1159.5167.1174.9

0.1%8.8%5.7%5.3%

181.8197.2208.5221.2233.8221.3230.9250.3263.0275.9290.3305.6321.3337.5354.0371.1388.9407.6427.4447.8469.2491.7514.9539.0563.8589.4616.3644.2

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
77

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

CALENDAR

YEAR

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC U.S./CANADA TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

53.049.949.853.357.155.054.555.258.561.664.968.271.374.377.380.383.486.790.093.496.9

100.4104.0107.6111.2114.9118.9122.8

0.3%1.3%4.3%3.9%

40.844.247.148.649.848.049.151.354.056.859.862.966.269.673.176.880.784.989.293.898.6

103.6108.9114.3120.0125.9132.3138.9

1.9%4.5%5.1%5.1%

26.025.125.626.325.824.425.126.228.330.232.234.236.137.939.741.643.545.647.749.852.154.456.859.361.964.567.370.2

-0.3%

4.6%5.7%5.0%

20.819.721.021.521.720.220.921.522.323.224.125.025.926.827.728.629.530.531.532.633.634.835.937.038.239.440.741.9

0.0%2.8%3.5%3.4%

140.6139.0143.5149.7154.4147.5149.6154.2163.1171.8181.1190.3199.5208.6217.8227.3237.2247.6258.5269.6281.1293.3305.6318.3331.3344.8359.1373.9

0.6%3.1%4.7%4.5%

* Sources: Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America, INS Form I-92, U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S./Canada Transborder, Transport Canada.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

78

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCALYEAR

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

DOMESTIC

(Seats)

INT’L.

(Seats)

SYSTEM

(Seats)

DOMESTIC

(Miles)

INT’L.

(Miles)

SYSTEM

(Miles)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031

129.3120.4120.1120.4120.8121.8121.8122.0122.0121.9121.9121.9122.0122.0122.1122.2122.2122.4122.5122.6122.7122.8123.0123.2123.3123.5123.7123.9

230.6217.1215.0216.1218.6219.0216.4217.5218.2218.6219.1219.5220.0220.4220.8221.2221.7222.1222.5222.9223.3223.7224.1224.5224.9225.3225.7226.1

145.0135.3135.7136.6138.2140.0139.7140.7140.9141.1141.3141.5141.8142.2142.5142.9143.3143.7144.2144.7145.3145.8146.4147.0147.6148.3148.9149.5

799.8856.2871.4870.2873.5869.7874.9879.5885.5891.1896.7902.5907.9913.3918.8924.3929.9935.2940.4945.7951.1956.4961.5966.5971.6976.7981.8987.0

3,223.22,924.62,911.52,939.02,985.23,008.12,983.83,001.33,014.43,028.13,043.03,058.63,073.73,088.83,102.93,117.53,132.13,146.93,161.63,176.33,191.13,206.13,221.23,236.63,252.33,268.13,284.03,299.8

995.7

1,045.41,068.81,073.71,091.41,093.11,104.01,119.51,129.11,137.11,146.01,155.21,164.61,174.51,184.91,195.61,206.01,216.71,228.21,239.91,252.11,264.71,277.11,289.71,302.51,315.81,328.81,342.0

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
79

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

(Millions)

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Billions)

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

561.5 523.1516.2533.9521.6476.8473.6

486.8502.5520.8539.7558.9576.8593.8609.1624.3640.6655.9670.1684.1697.2710.3723.1735.7748.2760.2772.9785.8

-1.7%

2.8%3.1%2.4%

53.364.268.171.974.871.074.780.684.488.192.396.7

101.2105.9110.6115.4120.4125.7131.2137.0142.9149.1155.5162.1168.8175.7183.0190.4

3.4%7.9%4.9%4.6%

614.8587.3584.4605.7596.5547.8548.3567.4586.8608.9632.0655.6678.0699.7719.7739.7761.0781.5801.3821.0840.1859.4878.6897.8917.0935.9955.8976.2

-1.1%

3.5%3.3%2.8%

490.0509.6513.9529.9521.3478.2480.8496.9515.5537.0559.3582.0603.7624.6643.9663.2683.9703.7722.6741.4759.4777.5795.5813.4831.3848.9867.4886.3

-0.2%

3.4%3.6%3.0%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.9220.0229.6248.9261.5274.4288.7303.9319.6335.7352.1369.1386.9405.5425.1445.5466.8489.2512.4536.4561.1586.6613.5641.3

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

670.9705.4720.7749.4753.3698.2710.3745.9777.0811.3848.0885.9923.3960.2995.9

1,032.31,070.81,109.21,147.71,186.91,226.21,266.71,307.91,349.81,392.41,435.61,480.91,527.6

0.6%5.0%4.2%3.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

80

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

688.3665.1648.7659.0650.2587.8581.6597.9617.5640.9665.5690.9715.1738.5760.1781.9805.5827.9849.3870.7891.3912.0932.5953.0973.6993.7

1,014.91,036.7

-1.7%

2.8%3.3%2.8%

490.0509.6513.9529.9521.3478.2480.8496.9515.5537.0559.3582.0603.7624.6643.9663.2683.9703.7722.6741.4759.4777.5795.5813.4831.3848.9867.4886.3

-0.2%

3.4%3.6%3.0%

71.276.679.280.480.281.482.783.183.583.884.084.284.484.684.784.884.985.085.185.185.285.385.385.485.485.485.585.5

238.0246.3258.9273.4290.1281.5279.3303.0316.4331.8349.0367.1385.9405.2424.9445.3466.5488.8512.3536.7562.1588.9616.6645.2674.7705.2737.3770.4

1.6%8.5%5.3%4.9%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.9220.0229.6248.9261.5274.4288.7303.9319.6335.7352.1369.1386.9405.5425.1445.5466.8489.2512.4536.4561.1586.6613.5641.3

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

76.079.579.980.380.078.282.282.282.682.782.782.882.882.882.982.982.983.083.083.083.083.183.183.183.283.283.283.2

926.2911.4907.6932.4940.3869.3860.9900.8933.9972.7

1,014.51,058.11,101.01,143.71,185.01,227.21,271.91,316.71,361.61,407.41,453.31,500.91,549.11,598.21,648.31,698.91,752.11,807.1

-0.7%

4.6%4.0%3.6%

670.9705.4720.7749.4753.3698.2710.3745.9777.0811.3848.0885.9923.3960.2995.9

1,032.31,070.81,109.21,147.71,186.91,226.21,266.71,307.91,349.81,392.41,435.61,480.91,527.6

0.6%5.0%4.2%3.7%

72.477.479.480.480.180.382.582.883.283.483.683.783.984.084.084.184.284.284.384.384.484.484.484.584.584.584.584.5

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
81

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE 12

U.

S. MAI

NLI

N

E AIR CARRIERS

SC

HED

ULED INTER

NATIO

NAL PASSE

NGER

E

NPLA

NEME

NTS

FISCALYEAR

RE

VENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

20.921.622.524.126.024.724.526.627.828.830.031.132.333.434.535.736.938.239.540.942.343.745.146.648.049.551.152.8

1.6%8.7%4.2%3.7%

21.229.331.734.235.634.337.340.142.044.046.248.551.053.556.158.861.664.567.670.874.277.881.485.289.092.997.0

101.3

5.8%7.5%5.1%4.9%

11.213.213.913.613.212.012.913.914.615.316.117.018.018.919.920.921.923.024.125.226.427.729.030.431.833.334.836.3

1.5%7.7%5.4%5.0%

53.364.268.171.974.871.074.780.684.488.192.396.7

101.2105.9110.6115.4120.4125.7131.2137.0142.9149.1155.5162.1168.8175.7183.0190.4

3.4%7.9%4.9%4.6%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

82

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

FISCAL

YEAR

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(BIL)

RPMs

(BIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

109.9108.6115.8126.6141.0138.2130.9143.7150.1156.4163.4170.6177.7184.8191.9199.2206.8214.9223.4232.0240.8250.1259.4268.8278.4288.2298.6309.4

1.8%9.7%4.7%4.2%

87.189.593.9

102.2112.7108.9108.6118.0123.9129.1135.0141.0147.0152.9158.9165.1171.5178.2185.4192.7200.1207.9215.8223.8231.9240.2249.1258.2

2.2%8.7%4.7%4.2%

79.282.481.180.780.078.982.982.282.582.682.682.782.782.882.882.982.983.083.083.183.183.283.283.383.383.483.483.5

51.465.469.472.774.273.577.982.786.391.296.8

102.8109.3116.1123.2130.6138.3146.5155.2164.5174.3184.6195.5206.8218.5230.7243.5256.9

4.2%6.2%5.9%5.8%

35.547.251.955.958.856.461.766.569.973.978.483.388.694.199.8

105.8112.1118.7125.8133.3141.2149.6158.4167.6177.1187.0197.3208.2

5.7%7.7%6.1%6.0%

69.072.274.976.979.376.879.280.481.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.081.0

76.672.373.774.174.969.970.576.680.084.288.893.798.9

104.3109.8115.5121.4127.4133.7140.2147.0154.2161.7169.6177.8186.3195.2204.2

-0.8%

8.7%5.6%5.2%

58.459.261.161.460.454.759.264.467.871.475.379.684.088.693.498.3

103.3108.5113.9119.6125.5131.6138.1145.0152.1159.5167.1174.9

0.1%8.8%5.7%5.3%

76.281.882.882.980.678.384.184.184.784.884.884.984.985.085.085.185.185.285.285.385.385.485.485.585.585.685.685.7

238.0246.3258.9273.4290.1281.5279.3303.0316.4331.8349.0367.1385.9405.2424.9445.3466.5488.8512.3536.7562.1588.9616.6645.2674.7705.2737.3770.4

1.6%8.5%5.3%4.9%

181.0195.8206.8219.5231.9220.0229.6248.9261.5274.4288.7303.9319.6335.7352.1369.1386.9405.5425.1445.5466.8489.2512.4536.4561.1586.6613.5641.3

2.4%8.4%5.4%5.0%

76.079.579.980.380.078.282.282.282.682.782.782.882.882.882.982.982.983.083.083.083.083.183.183.183.2

83.283.283.2

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
83

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC

INTERNATIONAL 

SYSTEM ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

(Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031

148.8150.4150.5150.6150.3151.2151.9152.0152.1152.1152.2152.3152.4152.4152.5152.6152.7152.7152.8152.9153.0153.0153.1153.2153.3153.3153.4153.5

233.7230.8229.4229.2229.2230.0231.7232.2232.7233.2233.7234.2234.7235.2235.7236.2236.7237.2237.7238.2238.7239.2239.7240.2240.7241.2241.7242.2

179.5175.5175.2176.2177.3175.8171.5172.0172.5173.0173.5174.0174.5175.0175.5176.0176.5177.0177.5178.0178.5179.0179.5180.0180.5181.0181.5182.0

307.8278.7274.4279.6292.3291.3287.2288.0288.7289.5290.2291.0291.7292.5293.2294.0294.7295.5296.2297.0297.7298.5299.2300.0300.7301.5302.2303.0

236.6223.4221.4222.3224.9223.7220.9221.9222.4222.9223.3223.7224.0224.4224.7225.1225.4225.8226.1226.4226.7227.1227.4227.7228.1228.4228.8229.1

164.5165.0165.7166.3167.5168.9169.0170.0170.3170.6170.9171.2171.6172.0172.4172.8173.2173.6174.0174.5175.0175.5176.0176.5177.0177.6178.1178.6

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

84

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC

INTERNATIONAL 

SYSTEM ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

(Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031

872.6974.1995.5992.7999.4

1,003.01,015.11,020.81,025.91,031.01,036.21,041.41,046.61,051.81,057.11,062.41,067.71,073.01,078.41,083.81,089.21,094.61,100.11,105.61,111.11,116.71,122.31,127.9

4,168.14,133.14,175.44,247.84,332.74,402.44,433.04,433.84,450.74,477.24,501.44,526.84,551.84,575.84,598.94,621.34,643.84,666.64,689.84,713.34,736.44,759.54,782.64,805.24,827.54,849.44,871.44,893.9

1,675.21,611.11,637.01,634.31,651.61,645.61,654.81,657.81,664.71,680.31,698.11,717.41,737.51,757.91,778.71,799.21,819.71,840.21,860.71,881.61,902.91,924.31,946.11,968.01,990.02,011.82,033.42,055.2

5,219.94,466.14,390.44,515.14,583.54,549.94,586.64,625.34,648.14,656.44,664.34,672.24,680.14,688.24,696.44,704.94,713.44,722.14,730.94,739.84,748.74,757.64,766.64,775.54,784.54,793.64,802.84,812.2

3,397.33,051.23,037.03,054.23,100.13,097.63,072.83,087.03,099.13,112.83,127.33,142.53,157.03,170.93,184.63,198.43,212.23,226.03,239.73,253.33,266.93,280.73,294.73,309.03,323.53,338.33,353.23,368.0

1,091.41,201.11,233.41,237.31,262.91,274.61,295.51,314.51,324.01,332.41,341.71,351.31,361.71,372.41,383.91,395.61,407.11,419.31,432.31,445.71,459.61,473.91,488.61,503.41,518.41,533.81,549.31,564.8

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
85

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2010 $

(Cents)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2010 $

(Cents)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

FY 2010 $

(Cents)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

14.0311.4512.3612.4513.1111.9512.5712.9613.3713.5213.6813.8413.9914.1514.3114.4714.6214.7614.8915.0315.1715.3315.4915.6515.8215.9916.1716.33

-1.1%

3.1%1.5%1.3%

17.8712.8713.4013.1813.3012.1612.5712.8212.9912.8712.7612.6512.5312.4212.3112.2012.1011.9911.8811.7811.6711.5711.4711.3711.2711.1711.0710.97

-3.5%

2.0%

-0.4%-0.6%

10.4610.8711.6312.4513.3711.7012.8613.6613.9914.1314.2814.4314.5814.7214.8815.0215.1615.2915.4115.5315.6715.8115.9616.1016.2616.4316.5916.73

2.1%6.2%1.7%1.3%

13.3212.2212.6113.1913.5611.9012.8613.5113.5913.4613.3213.1913.0612.9312.8012.6712.5512.4212.3012.1812.0511.9411.8211.7011.5811.4711.3511.24

-0.3%

5.0%

-0.3%-0.6%

13.0611.2912.1512.4513.1911.8712.6713.2013.5813.7213.8814.0414.1914.3514.5114.6714.8114.9615.0915.2215.3615.5115.6715.8316.0016.1716.3416.50

-0.3%

4.2%1.6%1.3%

16.6412.6913.1713.1813.3812.0812.6713.0513.1913.0712.9512.8312.7112.6012.4912.3712.2612.1512.0411.9311.8211.7111.6011.5011.3911.2911.1911.08

-2.7%

3.0%

-0.3%-0.6%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

86

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

FISCALYEAR

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

CURRENT $ FY 2010 $ CURRENT $ FY 2010 $ CURRENT $ FY 2010 $ CURRENT $ FY 2010 $

(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

9.73

10.7511.6412.4613.2911.2512.7713.6213.9714.1214.2714.4214.5614.7014.8615.0015.1415.2715.3915.5115.6415.7815.9316.0816.2316.3916.5516.70

2.8%6.7%1.7%1.3%

12.3912.0812.6213.2013.4811.4412.7713.4713.5813.4413.3113.1713.0412.9112.7812.6612.5312.4012.2812.1612.0411.9211.8011.6811.5611.4511.3311.22

0.3%5.5%

-0.2%-0.6%

13.0012.1612.6813.3714.1913.0513.4414.1214.3314.4714.6314.7814.9315.0815.2315.3815.5215.6615.7815.9016.0416.1816.3316.4816.6416.8116.9717.12

0.3%5.0%1.4%1.2%

16.5613.6613.7514.1614.3913.2713.4413.9613.9213.7813.6413.5113.3713.2413.1112.9812.8512.7212.5912.4612.3412.2212.0911.9711.8511.7411.6211.50

-2.1%

3.8%

-0.5%-0.7%

9.99

10.0410.7311.6112.7311.2012.4413.2613.6613.8013.9414.0914.2314.3714.5214.6714.8014.9315.0415.1615.2915.4315.5715.7115.8716.0316.1816.32

2.2%6.6%1.8%1.3%

12.7211.2811.6312.3012.9111.3912.4413.1113.2713.1413.0112.8812.7512.6212.5012.3712.2512.1212.0011.8811.7611.6511.5311.4111.3011.1911.0810.97

-0.2%

5.4%

-0.2%-0.6%

10.4610.8711.6312.4513.3711.7012.8613.6613.9914.1314.2814.4314.5814.7214.8815.0215.1615.2915.4115.5315.6715.8115.9616.1016.2616.4316.5916.73

2.1%6.2%1.7%1.3%

13.3212.2212.6113.1913.5611.9012.8613.5113.5913.4613.3213.1913.0612.9312.8012.6712.5512.4212.3012.1812.0511.9411.8211.7011.5811.4711.3511.24

-0.3%

5.0%

-0.3%-0.6%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
87

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

CURRENT $ FY 2010 $ CURRENT $ FY 2010 $ CURRENT $ FY 2010 $

(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

71.49

149.39194.69194.17292.56202.31218.55222.08240.85253.75263.54273.87284.83291.92297.01296.92292.59289.76287.83285.36287.52292.72298.50304.58312.38321.22329.39336.19

11.8%

1.6%3.0%2.1%

91.05

167.90211.07205.66296.69205.80218.55219.60234.02241.66245.85250.27255.17256.37255.54250.43242.11235.35229.65223.68221.20220.97221.06221.27222.47224.26225.48225.85

9.2%0.5%1.0%0.2%

79.35

157.26204.69203.31314.57208.41220.03223.58242.48255.47265.33275.72286.76293.90299.02298.93294.57291.72289.78287.29289.47294.70300.52306.64314.49323.39331.62338.47

10.7%

1.6%3.0%2.1%

101.06176.74221.91215.34319.01212.00220.03221.09235.60243.29247.51251.96256.89258.10257.27252.13243.75236.94231.21225.19222.70222.46222.56222.77223.97225.78227.01227.38

8.1%0.5%1.0%0.2%

73.57

151.58197.72196.90299.74204.35219.06222.60241.41254.34264.16274.51285.50292.60297.71297.61293.27290.44288.50286.03288.20293.40299.19305.29313.11321.97330.15336.98

11.5%

1.6%3.0%2.1%

93.70

170.36214.35208.55303.97207.87219.06220.12234.56242.22246.42250.85255.76256.97256.14251.02242.68235.90230.19224.20221.71221.48221.58221.78222.99224.78226.01226.38

8.9%0.5%1.0%0.2%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

88

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

FISCALYEAR

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

 (Millions)

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS

(Millions)

DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

10,283.513,007.912,481.212,795.212,257.710,266.111,225.311,721.512,450.013,026.313,526.613,979.614,383.914,759.715,109.915,459.115,821.516,193.516,592.716,997.417,396.717,819.718,238.118,648.819,061.219,473.819,916.920,370.9

0.9%4.4%3.5%2.9%

7,573.1

14,581.215,475.216,164.415,587.413,206.415,924.516,960.218,411.719,811.121,254.322,703.624,168.425,645.127,158.928,733.930,368.032,071.333,841.035,667.637,567.739,561.341,608.743,737.445,926.648,187.450,540.252,975.6

7.7%6.5%6.7%5.9%

17,856.627,589.027,956.428,959.627,845.123,472.527,149.828,681.730,861.832,837.534,780.836,683.238,552.340,404.842,268.844,193.146,189.548,264.750,433.752,665.054,964.457,381.059,846.862,386.264,987.867,661.270,457.173,346.5

4.3%5.6%5.5%4.8%

4,415.23,081.73,229.43,022.82,152.91,633.91,622.71,663.81,751.01,815.21,867.31,911.81,948.51,980.42,008.02,034.62,062.02,089.82,120.22,150.32,178.82,209.32,238.12,265.02,291.22,316.42,344.22,372.2

-9.5%

2.5%2.4%1.8%

7,784.68,547.78,483.58,050.09,027.05,898.67,112.67,557.58,089.48,581.69,076.39,557.1

10,028.010,487.310,945.311,411.111,882.912,363.912,852.113,342.913,841.814,355.014,867.015,386.815,906.316,428.316,958.917,493.7

-0.9%

6.3%5.3%4.4%

12,199.911,629.511,712.811,072.811,179.9

7,532.58,735.49,221.39,840.4

10,396.810,943.611,468.911,976.512,467.712,953.313,445.613,944.914,453.814,972.315,493.316,020.716,564.317,105.117,651.918,197.518,744.719,303.019,865.9

-3.3%

5.6%4.8%4.0%

14,698.716,089.615,710.515,818.014,410.511,900.012,848.013,385.314,201.114,841.515,393.915,891.416,332.416,740.117,117.917,493.717,883.518,283.318,713.019,147.719,575.520,029.020,476.320,913.921,352.421,790.122,261.122,743.1

-1.3%

4.2%3.4%2.8%

15,357.823,128.923,958.724,214.424,614.419,105.023,037.124,517.726,501.128,392.730,330.632,260.734,196.436,132.438,104.140,145.042,250.944,435.246,693.149,010.551,409.653,916.356,475.759,124.261,832.964,615.767,499.070,469.3

4.1%6.4%6.3%5.5%

30,056.539,218.539,669.240,032.439,025.031,005.035,885.237,903.040,702.243,234.245,724.548,152.150,528.852,872.555,222.157,638.760,134.462,718.565,406.068,158.270,985.173,945.376,952.080,038.183,185.386,405.889,760.193,212.4

1.8%5.6%5.3%4.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2 Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers 

for foreign flag carriers.

3 Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
89

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 20

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDARYEAR

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE

JETS

REGIONAL

JETS

TOTAL

JETS 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

3,3643,3083,3023,3543,1703,1093,0973,0623,0753,1993,2733,3833,4503,5233,5963,6683,7323,8333,8893,9574,0084,0584,1234,1794,2464,3074,3884,469

-0.8%-1.1%

1.9%1.8%

385

37262910

98888765555000000000000

-32.1%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

0000123333333333222222222222

N/A

0.0%

-4.0%-1.9%

3,7493,3453,3283,3833,1813,1203,1083,0733,0863,2103,2833,3923,4583,5313,6043,6763,7343,8353,8913,9594,0104,0604,1254,1814,2484,3094,3904,471

-1.9%-1.1%

2.2%1.7%

424466463477470447464468505523560585626649691719763794833860900941988

1,0331,0811,1351,1831,235

0.9%0.9%5.4%4.8%

169

291912

999975310000000000000000

-25.4%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

120

544947444241414141414138322617

900000000000

-10.2%

0.0%

-100.0%-100.0%

713549531536523498514518553569604627664681717736772794833860900941988

1,0331,0811,1351,1831,235

-3.2%

0.8%4.4%4.3%

4,4623,8943,8593,9193,7043,6183,6223,5913,6393,7793,8874,0194,1224,2124,3214,4124,5064,6294,7244,8194,9105,0015,1135,2145,3295,4445,5735,706

-2.1%-0.9%

2.6%2.2%

2612396491

100

91

103109116123127131135139141145149153157161164167170173176179182

13.3%13.2%

3.8%3.4%

4,4883,9063,8983,9833,7953,7183,7133,6943,7483,8954,0104,1464,2534,3474,4604,5534,6514,7784,8774,9765,0715,1655,2805,3845,5025,6205,7525,888

-1.9%-0.5%

2.6%2.2%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

90

TA

BLE 21

U.

S. MAI

NLI

N

E AIR CARRIERS

CARGO JET AIRCRA

F

T

CALENDARYEAR

LARGE NARROWBOD

Y LARGE WIDEBOD

Y

TOTAL

2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

166164162162161160140143159177191211237264282299314324334344353362372381390400409418

-1.7%

2.1%8.4%5.3%

332233220162143104

9991806956442913

72000000000000

-11.4%

-8.1%

-100.0%-100.0%

176

907875683328282826252423222115

852000000000

-16.8%

0.0%

-11.8%

-100.0%

674487460399372297267262267272272279289299310316322329336344353362372381390400409418

-8.8%-1.9%

1.9%2.2%

164246264276276253258273288294300314329343355374395418441460476495511529545563579594

4.6%5.8%4.4%4.1%

158193208213215201194195196196196189181173166157150146141136132127127128128128128128

2.1%0.5%

-2.5%-2.0%

6875808697828787899494949594969898959394969899

100104106109111

2.5%0.0%1.2%1.2%

390514552575588536539555573584590597605610617629643659675690704720737757777797816833

3.3%3.0%1.8%2.1%

1,0641,0011,012

974960833806817840856862876894909927945965988

1,0111,0341,0571,0821,1091,1381,1671,1971,2251,251

-2.7%

1.4%1.8%2.1%
91

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 22

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

FISCALYEAR

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FUEL

CONSUMED

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1 GENERAL

AVIATION TOTAL AIR CARRIER GENERAL AVIATION TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

14,74613,97813,46113,53813,17911,47811,20211,36011,58711,88212,18712,49612,77013,02213,23513,44313,67313,87314,04914,21814,36614,51314,64414,77114,89115,00015,11915,242

-2.7%

1.4%2.0%1.5%

5,2975,3785,8516,0456,2895,7675,8696,2706,4516,6656,9057,1577,4127,6667,9188,1758,4388,7098,9929,2809,5759,883

10,19310,50810,82511,14611,48011,818

1.0%6.8%3.7%3.4%

20,04319,35619,31319,58319,46817,24417,07117,63018,03818,54719,09219,65320,18220,68821,15321,61822,11022,58323,04123,49823,94124,39524,83825,27925,71626,14626,59927,060

-1.6%

3.3%2.6%2.2%

972

1,5271,6431,4861,7061,4471,4321,4721,6711,8341,8981,9622,0292,0932,1532,2152,2832,3492,4132,4832,5552,6302,7062,7842,8632,9463,0323,118

4.0%2.8%4.8%3.8%

21,01520,88320,95521,06921,17418,69118,50319,10319,70920,38120,99121,61522,21122,78123,30623,83324,39324,93125,45425,98126,49727,02627,54428,06228,57829,09229,63130,178

-1.3%

3.2%2.8%2.4%

2222222222222222222222222222

0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

333295283274248227220220219218215213211211210210211212214217220224227231235239243247

-4.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.5%

335297285276250229222222221220217215213213212212213214216219222226229233237241245249

-4.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.5%

21,35021,18021,24121,34421,42418,92118,72619,32519,92920,60121,20821,83022,42422,99423,51824,04524,60625,14625,67026,19926,71927,25127,77328,29628,81629,33329,87630,427

-1.3%

3.2%2.8%2.3%

* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1 Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

92

TABLE 23

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

FISCALYEAR

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

DOMESTIC

(Seats/Mile)

INT’L.

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC

(Miles)

INT’L.

(Miles)

SYSTEM

(Miles)

CURRENT $

(Cents)

2010$

(Cents)

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

38.448.649.349.952.955.256.256.657.057.557.958.358.859.259.760.260.661.161.662.062.563.063.564.064.565.065.566.0

41.852.452.254.053.452.853.253.553.854.154.454.755.055.355.655.956.256.556.857.157.457.758.058.358.658.959.259.5

38.548.749.450.053.055.156.156.557.057.457.858.358.759.259.660.160.561.061.562.062.462.963.463.964.464.965.465.9

286.5434.7450.4451.5460.8456.9464.3468.2476.6484.9493.1501.5508.7516.1523.6531.2539.0545.5552.1558.8565.6572.5578.0583.7589.3595.1600.9606.7

260.0434.2467.2518.1532.7512.3502.9507.9512.9517.9522.9527.9532.9537.9542.9547.9552.9557.9562.9567.9572.9577.9582.9587.9592.9597.9602.9607.9

285.5434.7450.7452.9462.3457.8464.9468.9477.2485.5493.6501.9509.1516.5523.9531.5539.2545.7552.3559.0565.7572.6578.1583.7589.4595.1600.9606.7

30.2819.6719.8819.9121.2517.2715.9516.4316.9417.1317.3317.5317.7217.9218.1318.3318.5218.7018.8719.0419.2219.4219.6219.8220.0420.2620.4820.68

-6.2%

3.0%1.5%1.2%

38.5722.1021.5521.0921.5517.5715.9516.2516.4616.3116.1716.0215.8815.7415.6015.4615.3215.1915.0514.9214.7914.6614.5314.4014.2714.1414.0213.89

-8.4%

1.9%

-0.4%-0.7%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers. 
93

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

FISCALYEAR

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

79.7

146.4152.2156.2159.1154.0161.7167.2172.6179.5186.5193.6200.5207.1213.1219.2225.7232.0238.0244.0249.8255.7261.5267.3273.1278.9284.9291.0

7.3%3.4%3.4%2.8%

3.13.33.53.43.52.52.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.94.04.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.8

-1.5%

3.4%3.4%2.8%

82.8

149.7155.7159.6162.6156.6164.3170.0175.4182.4189.6196.8203.8210.5216.7222.8229.4235.9242.0248.1253.9259.9265.8271.7277.7283.5289.6295.9

7.1%3.4%3.4%2.8%

22,82563,65468,53270,52873,30570,37475,05878,29782,23087,03191,97397,102

101,995106,877111,601116,441121,650126,575131,428136,365141,274146,361151,150156,023160,970165,942171,167176,577

12.6%

4.3%4.9%4.2%

814

1,4171,6341,7721,8671,3041,3471,4071,4661,5401,6151,6931,7701,8451,9171,9892,0672,1442,2192,2952,3702,4472,5252,6032,6822,7622,8452,931

5.2%4.5%4.4%3.8%

23,63965,07170,16672,30075,17271,67876,40479,70383,69688,57093,58998,795

103,765108,722113,517118,430123,717128,719133,648138,660143,644148,808153,675158,626163,652168,703174,012179,508

12.4%

4.3%4.9%4.2%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

94

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

FISCALYEAR

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

ASMs

(MIL)

RPMs

(MIL)

% LOAD

FACTOR

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

38,33290,02891,45893,45299,46994,66498,498

102,199107,248113,425119,785126,384132,674138,947145,013151,229157,921164,243170,471176,805183,103189,630195,771202,018208,361214,735221,437228,376

9.9%3.8%4.8%4.1%

22,82563,65468,53270,52873,30570,37475,05878,29782,23087,03191,97397,102

101,995106,877111,601116,441121,650126,575131,428136,365141,274146,361151,150156,023160,970165,942171,167176,577

12.6%

4.3%4.9%4.2%

59.570.774.975.573.774.376.276.676.776.776.876.876.976.977.077.077.077.177.177.177.277.277.277.277.377.377.377.3

1,3382,2132,3872,5502,6321,8591,8571,9271,9942,0802,1682,2572,3432,4272,5052,5832,6662,7482,8272,9052,9813,0583,1453,2333,3213,4093,5073,608

3.3%3.7%3.7%3.2%

814

1,4171,6341,7721,8671,3041,3471,4071,4661,5401,6151,6931,7701,8451,9171,9892,0672,1442,2192,2952,3702,4472,5252,6032,6822,7622,8452,931

5.2%4.5%4.4%3.8%

60.864.068.569.570.970.272.573.073.574.074.575.075.576.076.577.077.578.078.579.079.580.080.380.580.881.081.181.2

39,67092,24093,84596,002

102,101

96,523

100,355104,125109,242115,505121,953128,641135,018141,374147,518153,811160,587166,991173,298179,710186,084192,688198,916205,251211,682218,144224,944231,984

9.7%3.8%4.8%4.1%

23,63965,07170,16672,30075,17271,67876,40479,70383,69688,57093,58998,795

103,765108,722113,517118,430123,717128,719133,648138,660143,644148,808153,675158,626163,652168,703174,012179,508

12.4%

4.3%4.9%4.2%

59.670.574.875.373.674.376.176.576.676.776.776.876.976.977.077.077.077.177.177.277.277.277.377.377.377.377.477.4

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
95

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

AS OFJANUARY 1

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

LESS 

THAN

9 SEATS

10 TO 19

SEATS

20 TO 30

SEATS

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

470449453453451466406396383373362355343333323315305294284273263253243232220209196183

-1.5%-2.5%-2.8%-3.7%

343220204172107103

96939188868481797674727067656260585552494643

-12.0%

-3.1%-2.8%-3.8%

262

998879686564626059575654525150484645434240383635333129

-13.1%

-3.1%-2.8%-3.7%

474253224228180153124122117114110108105102

9996939087838077747167646056

-12.5%

-1.6%-2.8%-3.7%

749896984331

3000000000000000000000

-27.4%

-100.0%

N/A

-100.0%

548351320326223184127122117114110108105102

9996939087838077747167646056

-13.6%

-3.9%-3.1%-3.8%

155

8187

101121115116125136145155164173182191201210219229238247256265273283291300309

-2.9%

7.8%6.1%4.8%

496

1,6301,6321,6561,7301,7471,7681,8101,8581,9191,9621,9902,0042,0112,0172,0302,0572,0942,1362,1882,2452,3102,3822,4552,5312,6072,6892,764

13.6%

2.4%1.5%2.2%

651

1,7111,7191,7571,8511,8621,8841,9351,9942,0642,1172,1542,1772,1932,2082,2312,2672,3132,3652,4262,4922,5662,6472,7282,8142,8982,9893,073

11.2%

2.7%1.9%2.4%

1,7041,1021,0561,033

927902806798787779770767756748740736728719712702694686678667657646633620

-7.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.2%

570

1,7281,7281,7541,7731,7781,7711,8101,8581,9191,9621,9902,0042,0112,0172,0302,0572,0942,1362,1882,2452,3102,3822,4552,5312,6072,6892,764

12.0%

2.2%1.5%2.1%

2,2742,8302,7842,7872,7002,6802,5772,6082,6452,6982,7322,757

2,7602,7592,7572,7662,7852,8132,8482,8902,9392,9963,0603,1223,1883,2533,3223,384

1.3%1.2%0.8%1.3%

*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

96

TA

BLE 27

ACTIVE GE

NERAL AVIATION 

A

N

D AIR TAXI AIRCRA

F

T

AS OF

DEC. 31

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT

EXPERIMENTAL SPORT AIRCRAFT OTHER

TOTAL

GENERAL

AVIATION

FLEET

TOTAL 

PISTONS

TOTAL 

TURBINES

PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

149,422 148,102 145,033147,571145,497140,649139,818139,010138,245137,590137,105136,760136,535136,425136,415136,540136,830137,305137,850138,490139,285140,240141,160142,225143,435144,780146,290147,960

-0.7%-0.6%-0.2%

0.3%

21,091 19,504 18,70819,33517,51916,47516,32216,17016,01515,87015,74015,59515,45515,30515,16515,03014,89514,75514,63014,50514,38514,26514,15014,03513,92013,81013,70013,590

-2.5%-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%

170,513 167,606 163,741 166,906 163,016 157,124 156,140 155,180 154,260 153,460 152,845 152,355 151,990 151,730 151,580 151,570 151,725 152,060 152,480 152,995 153,670 154,505 155,310 156,260 157,355 158,590 159,990 161,550 

-0.9%-0.6%-0.3%

0.2%

5,762 7,942 8,0639,5148,9079,0989,2259,3409,4409,5609,6859,8209,955

10,09010,23010,36510,50510,65010,80010,95011,10511,26011,42511,59011,76011,93012,10012,280

4.8%1.2%1.3%1.4%

7,0019,823 

10,37910,38511,04211,26811,56811,92512,40512,94513,51014,11014,74015,39016,06516,75517,46518,19518,95019,74520,57521,44522,35023,29524,27025,28526,32527,395

5.2%3.1%4.2%4.2%

12,763 17,765 18,442 19,899 19,949 20,366 20,793 21,265 21,845 22,505 23,195 23,930 24,695 25,480 26,295 27,120 27,970 28,845 29,750 30,695 31,680 32,705 33,775 34,885 36,030 37,215 38,425 39,675 

5.0%2.3%3.0%3.1%

2,680 3,039 3,2642,7693,4983,4993,5803,6853,7953,9104,0304,1654,3054,4504,5954,7404,8905,0405,1955,3505,5055,6605,8155,9706,1256,2806,4356,590

2.9%2.9%3.2%2.9%

4,470 5,689 5,8956,7986,3786,4856,5856,7356,8857,0457,2157,4057,6057,8108,0158,2208,4308,6408,8559,0709,2859,5009,7209,940

10,16010,38010,60010,820

4.0%2.3%2.5%2.4%

7,150 8,728 9,159 9,567 9,876 9,984 

10,165 10,420 10,680 10,955 11,245 11,570 11,910 12,260 12,610 12,960 13,320 13,680 14,050 14,420 14,790 15,160 15,535 15,910 16,285 16,660 17,035 17,410 

3.6%2.5%2.7%2.6%

20,407 23,627 23,04723,22823,36424,41924,59124,68525,07025,63026,18526,74027,21527,60027,98528,37528,76029,14529,53029,92030,30530,69031,07531,46531,85032,23532,62533,010

1.9%0.4%1.6%1.4%

NA

170 

1,273 6,066 6,811 6,547 6,996 7,430 7,9558,4058,7459,0709,3709,6709,970

10,27010,57010,87011,17011,47011,77012,07012,37012,67012,97013,27013,57013,870

N/A

6.2%4.2%3.3%

6,700 6,4546,2775,9405,6525,4805,4875,4955,4905,4855,4805,475

5,4705,4655,4605,4555,4505,4455,4455,4405,4355,4305,4255,4205,4155,4155,4105,405

-2.0%

0.1%

-0.1%-0.1%

217,533 224,350 221,939 231,606 228,668 223,920 224,172 224,475 225,300 226,440 227,695 229,140 230,650 232,205 233,900 235,750 237,795 240,045 242,425 244,940 247,650 250,560 253,490 256,610 259,905 263,385 267,055 270,920 

0.3%0.1%0.6%0.9%

173,193 170,645 167,005 169,675 166,514 160,623 159,720 158,865 158,055 157,370 156,875 156,520 156,295 156,180 156,175 156,310 156,615 157,100 157,675 158,345 159,175 160,165 161,125 162,230 163,480 164,870 166,425 168,140 

-0.8%-0.5%-0.2%

0.2%

17,233 23,454 24,337 26,697 26,327 26,851 27,378 28,000 28,730 29,550 30,410 31,335 32,300 33,290 34,310 35,340 36,400 37,485 38,605 39,765 40,965 42,205 43,495 44,825 46,190 47,595 49,025 50,495 

4.7%2.3%2.9%3.0%

* Source: 2000-2009, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
97

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE 28

ACTIVE GE

NERAL AVIATION 

A

N

D AIR TAXI H

O

URS FLOW

N

(In Thousands)

CALENDARYEAR

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT

EXPERIMENTAL SPORT AIRCRAFT OTHER

TOTAL

GENERAL

AVIATION 

HOURS

TOTAL 

PISTONS

TOTAL 

TURBINES

PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

18,089 13,73913,97613,57112,74611,73211,47411,44911,36211,24811,08410,93610,82710,79610,79710,83510,91911,03611,19211,38811,64211,94212,23512,53312,81513,09013,40513,699

-4.5%-0.2%-0.5%

0.8%

3,400 2,6772,5502,6862,3281,9041,9041,8451,8211,8211,7831,7281,6901,6641,6401,6181,6081,5921,5871,5891,5931,6031,6171,6311,6501,6711,6831,693

-5.6%-3.1%-1.7%-0.6%

21,489 16,416 16,525 16,257 15,074 13,636 13,378 13,294 13,183 13,069 12,867 12,664 12,517 12,460 12,437 12,453 12,527 12,628 12,779 12,977 13,236 13,544 13,853 14,164 14,465 14,762 15,088 15,392 

-4.6%-0.6%-0.7%

0.7%

1,986 2,1602,1622,6612,4572,2252,4932,5382,5762,6092,6512,6802,6952,7122,7402,7672,8002,8272,8652,9072,9452,9833,0273,0713,1123,1543,1993,250

2.3%1.8%1.2%1.3%

2,7553,7674,0773,9383,6003,1613,4553,5954,2334,7805,0125,2505,5125,7636,0016,2586,5306,8037,0777,3697,6777,9978,3268,6669,0179,3919,781

10,178

2.3%4.1%6.6%5.3%

4,741 5,927 6,240 6,600 6,057 5,386 5,948 6,133 6,809 7,389 7,663 7,930 8,207 8,475 8,741 9,026 9,331 9,630 9,942 

10,276 10,622 10,980 11,353 11,737 12,130 12,545 12,980 13,428 

2.3%3.1%4.6%4.0%

530 678918704751755757781807833861892924958991

1,0251,0601,0951,1321,1691,2061,2431,2801,3171,3551,3921,4301,469

3.6%3.2%3.4%3.2%

1,661 2,4382,5282,5412,4702,2482,2372,3002,3632,4302,5012,5792,6622,7482,8342,9213,0113,1013,1943,2883,3833,4783,5773,6763,7763,8773,9794,082

3.0%2.8%3.0%2.9%

2,191 3,116 3,446 3,245 3,222 3,003 2,994 3,081 3,169 3,263 3,361 3,471 3,586 3,705 3,825 3,946 4,071 4,196 4,326 4,457 4,588 4,721 4,856 4,993 5,131 5,270 5,410 5,551 

3.2%2.9%3.1%3.0%

1,307 1,3401,2181,2751,1551,2861,2521,2891,3741,4891,6051,7211,7861,8301,8741,9101,9451,9812,0172,0542,0912,1282,1662,2042,2422,2802,3192,359

-0.4%

2.9%4.5%3.1%

NA

9 

66 

260293282301326356384407431454478502528554581609638668699730763797832867904

N/A

8.3%6.3%5.4%

374 271 211 215 209 178 177 178 179 180 181 181 

182 183 184 184 185 186 187 188 188 189 190 191 192 192 193 194 

-7.2%

0.6%0.4%0.4%

30,102 27,078 27,705 27,852 26,009 23,771 24,051 24,301 25,071 25,772 26,084 26,398 26,732 27,130 27,563 28,046 28,614 29,203 29,861 30,589 31,393 32,261 33,148 34,052 34,955 35,881 36,858 37,828 

-2.2%

1.0%1.8%2.2%

22,019 17,094 17,443 16,962 15,825 14,391 14,135 14,075 13,989 13,902 13,727 13,556 13,441 13,417 13,428 13,478 13,587 13,724 13,911 14,146 14,441 14,787 15,133 15,482 15,819 16,154 16,518 16,861 

-4.3%-0.4%-0.4%

0.8%

6,402 8,365 8,767 9,141 8,527 7,634 8,185 8,433 9,172 9,818 

10,164 10,509 10,869 11,222 11,575 11,946 12,342 12,731 13,136 13,564 14,005 14,458 14,929 15,413 15,906 16,423 16,960 17,510 

2.5%3.0%4.2%3.7%

* Source: 2000-2009, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Surveys.1 Estimates have been revised to reflect changes in edit and estimation procedures, and may not be comparable to estimates prior to 1995.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

98

TABLE 29

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

AS OFDEC. 31 STUDENTS RECREA- TIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT ROTOR- CRAFT ONLY GLIDER ONLY2 TOTAL PILOTS TOTAL LESS AT PILOTS INSTRUMENT RATED PILOTS1

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

93,06487,21384,86684,33980,98972,280

119,1193

115,000111,700110,750109,700109,450109,250109,300109,450109,650110,050110,550111,150111,800112,550113,500114,350115,350116,500117,750119,100120,600

2.5%

-3.5%-0.8%

0.1%

340 278 239239252234212210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210210

-4.6%-0.9%-0.1%

0.0%

NA

134 939

2,0312,6233,2483,6824,3505,0505,3505,6505,9506,2506,6006,9507,3007,7008,0508,4508,8509,2509,700

10,15010,65011,15011,70012,25012,850

N/A

18.1%

7.7%6.1%

251,561228,619 219,233211,096222,596211,619202,020195,650190,600189,550188,350188,500188,750189,400190,250191,150192,400193,600194,950196,400198,000200,000201,800203,900206,250208,800211,500214,500

-2.2%-3.2%-0.5%

0.3%

121,858 120,614 117,610115,127124,746125,738123,705123,900122,350122,100121,800120,950120,500121,000121,250121,750122,300123,000123,750124,650125,700126,900128,200129,600131,150132,800134,450136,300

0.2%0.2%

-0.1%

0.5%

141,596 141,992 141,935143,953146,838144,600142,198142,650143,550144,950146,000147,100147,950148,650149,450150,200151,050152,100153,000153,950154,900155,900157,050158,150159,350160,550161,850163,150

0.0%0.3%0.6%0.7%

7,775 9,518 

10,69012,29014,64715,29815,37715,54015,85016,41016,96017,47018,00018,53018,96019,30019,45019,43019,40019,34019,27019,33019,49019,71019,98020,32020,71021,100

7.1%1.1%2.4%1.5%

9,387 

21,369 21,59721,274 21,055 21,268 21,275 21,360 21,400 21,440 21,470 21,510 21,540 21,580 21,610 21,650 21,680 21,710 21,770 21,800 21,840 21,870 21,910 21,940 21,970 22,030 22,060 22,100 

8.5%0.4%0.2%0.2%

625,581 609,737 597,109 590,349 613,746 594,285 627,588 618,660 610,710 610,760 610,140 611,140 612,450 615,270 618,130 621,210 624,840 628,650 632,680 637,000 641,720 647,410 653,160 659,510 666,560 674,160 682,130 690,810 

0.0%

-1.4%

0.0%0.5%

483,985 467,745 455,174 446,396 466,908 449,685 485,390 476,010 467,160 465,810 462,490 460,190 464,500 466,620 468,680 471,010 473,790 476,550 479,680 483,050 486,820 491,510 496,110 501,360 507,210 513,610 520,280 527,660 

0.0%

-1.9%-0.2%

0.4%

311,944 311,500 309,333309,865325,247323,495318,001315,700317,300318,900320,500322,200323,900325,600328,100330,600333,100335,600338,200340,800343,400346,000348,600351,300354,000356,700359,400362,100

0.2%

-0.7%

0.5%0.6%

* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2 In March 2001, the FAA Registry changed the definition of this pilot category. It added approximately 13,000 to this pilot category.3 In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. 

This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.

Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
99

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TABLE 30

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

CALENDARYEAR

FIXED WING

ROTORCRAFT EXPERIMENTAL/

OTHER

SPORT

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED PISTON TURBINE

SINGLE

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO- PROP TURBO- JET AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL PISTON TURBINE

Historical2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

200.8173.1164.9157.6143.0132.3130.0130.4128.1125.6122.5119.6117.9116.9116.4116.2116.5117.2118.2119.7121.8124.3126.7129.1131.4133.5136.0138.3

-4.3%

0.3%

-1.1%

0.3%

108.4

89.779.983.069.557.157.455.954.654.152.450.349.047.947.046.245.745.044.644.444.344.444.544.745.045.345.445.5

-6.2%-2.6%-2.3%-1.1%

176.3196.1190.1205.2230.4208.7192.7196.2199.2199.7202.9205.1204.2205.5207.6207.5210.0212.0212.8215.8218.7221.5224.8228.0231.1234.2237.6241.4

0.9%1.8%0.9%1.1%

736.7

1,181.31,303.91,148.01,313.21,104.61,131.41,165.51,358.81,518.91,576.61,635.11,699.41,759.01,813.61,872.41,934.21,994.92,054.42,117.82,184.12,252.42,321.62,392.52,464.42,541.02,620.02,699.1

4.4%3.0%5.5%4.2%

8.4

14.616.7

9.3

10.710.711.111.511.812.212.613.013.413.914.414.815.415.916.316.817.417.918.419.019.520.120.621.2

2.9%3.2%3.3%3.1%

59.0

149.2148.6132.4162.1133.6108.3110.7113.2115.8118.6121.8125.0128.4131.8135.1138.6142.0145.6149.1152.6156.2159.8163.4167.0170.6174.2177.8

6.3%2.3%2.5%2.4%

15.217.721.622.623.325.820.521.122.424.326.227.929.029.730.330.831.432.032.433.033.634.234.835.436.036.737.337.9

3.1%2.9%4.3%3.0%

NA

0.00.31.21.51.41.31.41.61.61.81.92.02.12.22.22.32.42.52.62.72.93.03.13.33.43.63.7

N/A

8.3%5.8%5.0%

332.8295.0283.4273.6248.1227.4220.4220.4218.5217.8215.4212.7211.2210.6210.2210.3211.3212.4214.1216.6219.8223.6227.5231.3235.2239.0242.9246.6

-4.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.5%

972.0

1,526.71,642.61,485.61,705.71,447.01,432.41,472.51,671.11,834.41,898.21,961.92,028.62,092.92,153.02,215.12,282.92,348.92,412.72,482.72,555.42,630.12,706.22,783.92,862.52,945.83,031.83,118.3

4.0%2.8%4.8%3.8%

1,304.81,821.71,926.01,759.21,953.81,674.41,652.91,692.81,889.62,052.12,113.62,174.62,239.92,303.52,363.12,425.32,494.12,561.42,626.82,699.32,775.22,853.72,933.63,015.33,097.73,184.83,274.73,364.9

2.4%2.4%4.2%3.4%

Source: FAA APO Estimates.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

100

TABLE 31

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY

TOTAL

NUMBER OF TOWERS

ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

15,158.713,533.613,256.313,611.213,780.112,833.212,657.012,990.013,340.613,679.714,038.214,397.214,722.915,056.715,398.615,748.816,107.516,470.716,843.217,225.317,617.318,019.518,432.218,855.519,290.119,735.920,193.420,661.5

-1.8%

2.6%2.4%2.4%

10,760.512,550.511,967.611,667.311,032.1

9,515.69,408.89,585.09,744.99,915.7

10,100.510,276.210,434.910,596.810,762.010,930.411,102.211,277.611,456.711,639.411,825.812,016.212,210.612,409.012,611.812,818.713,030.113,245.0

-1.3%

1.9%1.7%1.6%

22,844.119,303.218,707.118,575.217,492.715,558.414,859.914,351.414,527.714,706.714,888.215,070.915,256.415,444.915,635.815,829.616,026.216,225.816,428.616,634.216,842.817,054.517,269.517,487.717,709.517,934.318,161.818,392.3

-4.2%-3.4%

0.8%1.0%

22,844.119,303.218,707.118,575.217,492.715,558.414,859.914,351.414,527.714,706.714,888.215,070.915,256.415,444.915,635.815,829.616,026.216,225.816,428.616,634.216,842.817,054.517,269.517,487.717,709.517,934.318,161.818,392.3

-4.2%-3.4%

0.8%1.0%

39,878.534,146.833,072.533,132.031,573.827,999.626,571.425,749.526,059.326,373.926,693.027,015.027,341.927,674.128,010.828,352.628,699.529,051.829,409.729,772.630,141.130,515.130,895.031,280.631,672.632,070.132,473.132,881.3

-4.0%-3.1%

0.8%1.0%

1,439.81,414.51,358.41,313.91,285.01,304.21,308.81,308.61,308.51,308.51,308.51,308.51,308.51,308.51,308.41,308.41,308.41,308.41,308.41,308.41,308.41,308.31,308.31,308.31,308.31,308.31,308.31,308.3

-0.9%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

1,448.21,449.11,417.41,405.71,245.61,279.71,297.71,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.31,297.3

-1.1%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

2,888.02,863.62,775.82,719.62,530.62,584.02,606.42,605.82,605.82,605.82,605.82,605.82,605.82,605.72,605.72,605.72,605.72,605.72,605.72,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.62,605.5

-1.0%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

68,685.763,094.561,072.261,130.058,916.652,932.451,243.650,930.351,750.752,575.153,437.554,294.255,105.555,933.356,777.157,637.558,515.059,405.860,315.361,242.962,189.963,156.564,143.465,150.766,180.067,230.368,302.269,393.3

-2.9%-0.6%

1.3%1.5%

266264263264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264

192229231235239244246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246246

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
101

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

TA

BLE 32

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIO

N

S

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/

COMMUTER

GENERAL

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

16,395.014,123.413,963.314,366.014,438.813,298.313,173.413,503.113,864.814,215.014,585.214,955.915,292.615,637.415,990.716,352.616,723.317,098.717,483.717,878.518,283.518,699.119,125.519,562.920,011.820,472.320,944.921,428.4

-2.2%

2.5%2.4%2.3%

11,197.712,751.112,035.711,675.811,043.1

9,609.89,508.49,662.89,833.6

10,015.910,213.110,400.510,568.310,739.610,914.311,092.711,274.911,460.911,651.011,845.012,043.312,245.812,452.812,664.312,880.713,101.713,327.613,557.4

-1.6%

1.6%1.7%1.7%

20,799.217,388.917,005.316,747.415,756.514,126.913,853.613,401.213,598.913,798.714,004.014,208.414,409.914,615.314,823.615,035.515,250.915,469.615,692.615,918.816,149.016,383.216,621.516,863.917,111.217,362.217,617.517,876.6

-4.0%-3.3%

1.0%1.2%

3,466.92,798.72,669.92,498.72,398.82,394.92,436.32,436.12,436.12,436.02,436.02,436.02,435.92,435.92,435.82,435.82,435.72,435.72,435.62,435.62,435.52,435.52,435.42,435.42,435.32,435.32,435.32,435.2

-3.5%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

51,858.847,062.145,674.245,288.043,637.239,429.938,971.739,003.239,733.340,465.641,238.342,000.842,706.643,428.044,164.444,916.645,684.946,464.847,262.848,077.948,911.449,763.650,635.251,526.552,438.953,371.454,325.255,297.6

-2.8%

0.1%1.6%1.7%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2011–2031

102

TA

BLE 33

IF

R AIRCRA

F

T H

A

NDLED

AT FAA AIR RO

UTE TRAFFIC CO

NTROL CE

NTERS

(In Thousands)

FISCALYEAR

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AIR

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/

COMMUTER

GENERAL

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*2000200520062007200820092010EForecast201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031Avg Annual Growth2000-102010-112010-202010-31

24,987.025,004.624,394.525,006.223,895.322,405.122,338.723,013.523,700.224,406.025,179.025,959.926,682.727,425.128,192.028,982.629,794.430,615.531,464.132,340.733,246.734,179.935,144.436,141.237,165.838,224.639,319.340,445.7

-1.2%

3.0%2.9%2.9%

8,100.9

10,053.9

9,436.79,652.9

10,179.0

8,561.68,622.88,788.38,953.49,119.09,300.59,482.49,653.19,831.9

10,015.210,205.010,404.610,614.410,829.911,050.911,277.811,513.811,756.112,004.912,266.612,535.512,811.813,094.5

0.6%1.9%1.9%2.0%

8,744.38,367.78,197.08,294.37,670.76,331.66,549.56,689.36,805.56,911.07,022.97,128.27,220.47,311.37,403.77,498.37,595.37,692.07,791.77,894.78,001.68,112.58,227.98,348.08,473.28,603.68,739.78,878.0

-2.9%

2.1%1.5%1.5%

4,192.54,052.04,149.73,803.33,649.22,993.02,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.82,981.8

-3.4%

0.0%0.0%0.0%

46,024.847,478.146,177.846,756.745,394.140,291.340,492.741,472.942,441.043,417.844,484.245,552.346,538.047,550.248,592.749,667.850,776.251,903.753,067.554,268.255,507.956,788.058,110.259,475.960,887.462,345.563,852.665,400.0

-1.3%

2.4%2.3%2.3%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

HQ-111316