Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2018–2038) ................................................................................................ 1

Review of 2017 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................. 5

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... 6

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 7

Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 8

U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................10

Domestic Market................................................................................................................10

International Market ...........................................................................................................16

Cargo.................................................................................................................................20

General Aviation....................................................................................................................22

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................27

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................29

Commercial Space ................................................................................................................31

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA ....................................................................32

FAA’s Operations Forecast................................................................................................34

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy .................................................................37

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................39

Trends in Model Aircraft and Forecast ...............................................................................39

Commercial Small UAS Forecast.......................................................................................41

Large UAS.........................................................................................................................44

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................44

Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................46

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................50

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................50

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................55

Enplanements....................................................................................................................55

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................56

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................56

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................57

Yield ..................................................................................................................................58

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................63

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................65
1 

Forecast Highlights (2018–2038)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility 

that was associated with these cycles was 

thought by many to be a structural feature of 

an industry that was capital intensive but 

cash poor. However, the great recession of 

2007-09 marked a fundamental change in 

the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. 

Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S. 

airlines revamped their business models to 

minimize losses by lowering operating costs, 

eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated 

new services that customers were willing to 

purchase and started charging separately for 

services that were historically bundled in the 

price of a ticket. The industry experienced 

an unprecedented period of consolidation 

with three major mergers in five years. The

results of these efforts have been impressive: 2017 marks the eighth consecutive year 

of profitability for the U.S. airline industry. 

Looking forward, there is confidence that 

U.S. airlines have finally transformed from a 

capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to 

an industry that generates solid returns on 

capital and sustained profits. 

Fundamentally, over the medium and long 

term, aviation demand is driven by economic 

activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow 

over the long run. The 2018 FAA forecast 

calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over 

the next 20 years to average 1.9 percent per 

year, slightly slower than last year’s forecast. 

The uptick in passenger growth in 2016-17

will continue into 2018 spurred on by favorable economic conditions in the U.S. and the 

world. Oil prices averaged $48 per barrel in 

2017 rising to $51 in 2018, and our forecast 

assumes they will increase thereafter to exceed $100 by 2030 and approach $119 by 

the end of the forecast period. The headwinds that have buffeted the global economy 

during the past few years – uncertainty surrounding “Brexit”, recession in Russia and 

Brazil and inconsistent performance in other 

emerging economies, a “hard landing” in 

China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies seem to be diminishing. 

The U.S. economy is showing signs of accelerating, powered by gains in the stock market and should see additional stimulus in 

2018 with the passing of the tax cut bill in December 2017. 

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.3 percent a year between 2018 and 2038. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.2 

percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is 

growing, especially in the regional jet market, 

where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030, 

replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. and global economy saw 

growth accelerate in 2017, a combination of 

higher energy prices and labor cost increases resulted in profits for U.S. airlines

falling from 2016’s record levels. The FAA 

expects U.S. carrier profitability to remain 

steady or increase as solid demand fed by an 

improving economy offsets rising energy and 
2 

labor costs. Over the long term, we see a 

competitive and profitable aviation industry 

characterized by increasing demand for air 

travel and airfares growing more slowly than 

inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. and global economy.

The long-term outlook for general aviation is 

stable to optimistic, as growth at the high-end 

offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The active 

general aviation fleet is forecast to remain 

relatively stable between 2018 and 2038. 

While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the 

turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft 

continues to shrink over the forecast. While 

the fleet remains level, the number of general 

aviation hours flown is projected to increase 

an average of 0.8 percent per year through 

2038, as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline 

in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and 

business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased 

activity growth that has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at 

FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow

0.9 percent a year over the forecast period 

with commercial activity growing at five times 

the rate of non-commercial activity. The

growth in U.S. airline and business aviation 

activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases 

than small and non-hub airports, largely due 

to the commercial nature of their operations.
3 

Review of 2017

An improving economy both at home and 

abroad translated into a good year for U.S. 

aviation in 2017. Although costs increased 

due to higher energy prices and implementation of new labor contracts, the U.S. airline 

industry remained solidly profitable as 

growth in domestic traffic pushed revenues 

higher. The shift in the U.S. airline industry 

emphasis on market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in sustained profitability. U.S. airlines are continually updating strategies for capturing additional revenue streams such as charging 

fees for services that used to be included in 

airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for 

charging for services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and 

fare lock fees). At the same time, the U.S. 

airline industry has become nimbler in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses. The impact from these initiatives is evident as the industry (passenger 

and cargo carriers combined) posted profits 

for the eighth consecutive year in 2017, despite flat yields and higher costs. 

Demand for air travel in 2017 cooled from 

2016’s pace despite faster economic growth 

in the U.S. In 2017, system traffic as measured by revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 2.9 percent while system enplanements grew 2.6 percent. Domestic RPMs 

were up 3.0 percent while enplanements 

were up by 2.4 percent. International RPMs 

increased 2.6 percent despite enplanements

growing by 4.1 percent. The system-wide 

load factor was 83.5 percent, unchanged 

from the 2016 level. 

Yields increased for the first time since 2014. 

In domestic markets, continued expansion 

by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and 

Allegiant helped to keep a lid on fare increases despite rising energy and labor 

costs as yield rose just 0.1 percent. International yield rose a mere 0.4 percent as strong 

gains in the Latin region offset modest declines in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. Despite flat yields and rising energy and labor 

costs, U.S. airlines remained solidly profitable in FY 2017. Data for FY 2017 show that 

the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $21.6 billion (compared to a $26.6 billion operating profit for FY 

2016). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $15.3 billion while 

the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $5.7 billion as all carriers 

posted profits.

The general aviation industry recorded an increase of 4.2 percent in deliveries in 2017, 

with pistons up by 9.5 percent and turbines 

about the same as the previous year. Since 

the majority of increase was in the lower 

priced piston segment and the more expensive business jet deliveries were down by 0.2 

percent, U.S. billings decreased 8.5 percent

to $10.6 billion. General aviation activity at 

FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 

0.1 percent increase in 2017 as local activity 

rose 0.9 percent, more than offsetting a 0.5 

percent decline in itinerant operations.

Total operations in 2017 at the 517 FAA and 

contract towers were up 0.7 percent compared to 2016. This marks the first time since 

FY 1998-2000 that operations at FAA and 

funded towers have increased for three consecutive years. Air carrier activity increased 

by 4.4 percent, more than offsetting a decline 

in air taxi operations, while general aviation 
4 

and military activity rose slightly. Activity at 

large hubs rose by 0.1 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 1.3 percent

and small/non-hub airport activity was up 0.8

percent in 2017 compared to the prior year.
5 

Glossary of Acronyms 

Acronym Term

ANG FAA Office of NextGen

ARP FAA Office of Airports

ASMs Available Seat Miles

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CBP Customs and Border Patrol

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

COAs Certification of Authorizations

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CY Calendar Year

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

ISS International Space Station

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability

LCC Low Cost Carriers

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

TSA Transportation Security Administration

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
6 

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Li Ding (202) 267-1846

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

• Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

• Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Commercial Space Thomas Marotta (202) 267-0427

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical 

publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/ 

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov
7 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2018-2038 
8 

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects 

that world economic growth will hold steady 

near its 2017 rate of 3.1 percent. Growth is 

projected at 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.1 percent in 2019. The U.S. economy is forecast 

to be supported by the strength of underlying 

fundamentals while European policy remains 

accommodative in the face of political uncertainty. Japan’s economic growth is projected 

to slow but remain relatively solid, helped by 

domestic demand and exports. In emerging 

markets, China’s growth continues to ease, 

though stabilized by the government, while 

other countries such as Brazil and Russia 

build on 2017's momentum helped by higher 

commodity prices and increased demand for 

exports. India is expected to return to growth 

rates in excess of 7 percent after slowing 

slightly in 2017 due to policy shocks.

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP 

to grow at 2.8 percent a year between 2018 

and 2038. Emerging markets, at 4.1 percent 

a year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Middle East and Africa, 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.7 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be 

very slow at 0.8 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population.

6.8 6.5

2.5 2.2

1.8 1.6

1.0

3.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Annual Percent Change

China and India led World Economic Growth in 2017

China India Eurozone U.S. Japan Russia Brazil World

Source: IHS Global Insight
9 

The average crude oil price in 2017 rose 23

percent to about $48 per barrel, bringing an 

end to the declines seen over the past four 

years. Although IHS Global Insight is projecting little change in prices in 2018 and 

2019 due to supply growth, that pause will be 

short lived as prices rise in subsequent 

years. The price of oil is projected to increase over the long run due to growing 

global demand and higher costs of extraction. IHS Global Insight forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of crude to surpass $100 

per barrel in 2030 and continue to rise modestly thereafter to $119 in 2038.

0.8

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

4.7

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

Asia ex China

M.E. & Africa

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Jan 2018 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2018-2038

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
10

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

The commercial air carrier industry in 2018 

will be shaped by four distinct trends: (1) easing capacity discipline; (2) steady growth of 

seats per aircraft, whether through up-gauging or reconfiguring existing aircraft; (3) increasing competitive pressure due to ultralow-cost carrier expansion; and (4) continued 

reliance on ancillary revenues.

Following the 2007-09 recession, the U.S. 

airline industry underwent considerable restructuring that has resulted in an unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 

and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank 

by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the 

events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 

3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. Since 

2009, U.S. domestic ASMs have increased 

at an average rate of 2.1 percent per year 

while RPMs have grown 2.8 percent per 

 

1 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

year. Although those average rates of 

growth since the recession are low, they conceal the fact that growth has been picking up 

over the period (4.4% a year since 2014). 

ASM growth has risen due to a variety of factors including upgauging and the expansion 

of ultra-low-cost carriers and the competitive 

response by major carriers, driven in large 

part by low fuel prices. Looking ahead to the 

near-term, that earlier restraint in ASM 

growth is likely to continue easing as some 

carriers have indicated plans to open new 

routes. As new service begins, competitors 

may respond by adding their own new 

routes, thus further boosting ASM growth. 

The period of domestic capacity restraint 

since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional 

counterparts. In 2017, the mainline carrier 

group provided 9 percent more capacity than 

in 2007 while carrying 11.8 percent more 

passengers. Capacity flown by the regional 

group has shrunk by 2.8 percent over the 

same period (with passengers carried down 

5.1 percent). 

The regional market has continued to shrink 

as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; 

this has meant slow growth in enplanements 

and yields.

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.
11

595 627 672 712 760 819 880

148 151

160

170

181

195

210

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

2017E 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional
12

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing pilot 

shortages and tighter regulations regarding 

pilot training. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the pilot 

shortage while their capital costs have increased in the short-term as they continue to 

replace their 50 seat regional jets with more 

fuel-efficient 70 seat jets. The move to the 

larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future, however, since their unit costs are 

lower.

Growing seats per aircraft has been a 

longstanding trend for regionals that saw this 

measure rise by more than 55 percent over 

the decade from 1997 to 2007. The trend 

has slowed more recently, however, as regional seats per aircraft rose 26 percent over 

the ten years ending in 2017.

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although the trend 

has been accelerating – the reverse of regionals' behavior. From 1997-2007, mainline 

seats per aircraft expanded just one-half of 

one percent. Since 2007, this measure has 

grown about 8 percent.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

13.9 13.9

15.2

16.6

18.0

19.3

20.7

11.4 11.4

12.5

13.6

14.7

15.8

17.0

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

 25.0

2017E 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
13

checked bags and on-board meals, and by 

adding new services such as boarding priority and internet access. Although U.S. passenger carriers posted record net profits in 

2016, profits declined in 2017 on rising fuel 

and labor costs and flat yields. Nevertheless, 

ancillary revenues remained a contributing 

factor to overall profitability. Airlines are also 

continuing to implement plans to further segment their passengers into more discreet 

cost categories based on comfort amenities 

like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social 

media and outlets. In 2015, Delta introduced 

“Basic Economy” fares that provided customers with a main cabin experience at lower 

cost, in exchange for fewer options. By the 

end of 2017 these fares were available in 

100% of Delta’s domestic network. In February 2017 American began offering its version in February 2017, and had expanded to 

the entire domestic network by September. 

United deployed its version of Basic Economy fares across its domestic network in 

May, but quickly pulled back the scale of deployment across its domestic network as 

negative revenue impacts were more than 

anticipated. 

The offering of Basic Economy fares has 

been part of an effort by network carriers to 

 

2 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

protect market share in response to the rapid 

growth low cost carriers (LCC) have 

achieved in recent years. While mainline enplanements have increased about 12 percent since 2007, and regionals' have shrunk 

about 5 percent, low cost carrier enplanements have grown by almost 30 percent. 

RPMs over the same period show a similar 

pattern with mainline RPMs up 15 percent, 

regional RPMs up 1 percent and LCC RPMs 

fully 41 percent higher.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of 

domestic departures rose in 2016 for the first 

time since 2007 but then pulled back in 2017 

and are about 18 percent below the 2007 

level. ASMs, RPMs and enplanements all 

grew in each of the past six years; these 

trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft 

and higher load factors.2

 In 2017, the domestic load factor came off a historic high 

reached the year before but at 84.5 percent, 

remains near the peak for commercial air 

carriers. Load factor is forecast to rise and 

peak around 86.6 percent in the future due to 

the logistical difficulties inherent in matching 

supply perfectly with demand. 
14

System, that is the sum of domestic plus international capacity, increased 2.9 percent to 

1.144 trillion ASMs in 2017 while RPMs also 

increased 2.9 percent to 955 billion. During 

the same period system-wide enplanements 

increased 2.6 percent to 840.7 million. In 

2017, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the 

domestic over the international market in 

terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 3.3 percent while international capacity was up just 2.0 percent. U.S. 

carriers' domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in 

2018 but carriers will start expanding capacity in international markets faster than domestic markets beginning in 2019 and this 

trend is projected to continue through 2038 

as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 3.6 percent in 2017 while regional carriers carried 2.1 percent fewer passengers. 

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements increased for the seventh consecutive 

year, up 3.6 percent, marking the first time 

since 2000 that the industry recorded seven 

consecutive years of passenger growth in 

the domestic market. Mainline passengers in 

international markets posted the eighth year 

of growth, up 4.0 percent. Domestic mainline 

enplanement growth is forecast to remain 

solid, increasing at about 3.4 percent during 

the early part of the forecast before slowing 

as economic activity cools. After surging 5.2 

percent in 2018, international enplanements 

 84.0

 84.5

 85.0

 85.5

 86.0

 86.5

 87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2017E 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor
15

are forecast to grow steadily at about 3.3 percent through the forecast horizon. 

With relatively robust demand, industry capacity growth was up 2.9 percent in 2017 after a 4.2 percent increase in 2016. The increased passenger volume and traffic offset 

flat yields and along with higher ancillary revenues and relatively low fuel prices resulted 

in U.S. carriers solidly profitable in 2017. Domestic mainline capacity is expected to 

match the pattern of enplanements with a 

solid 3.4 percent growth in the near term, followed by a few years of slower growth before 

returning to trend. International mainline enplanements are forecast to grow at about 3.9 

percent over the next three years and then 

moderate slightly through the remainder of 

the forecast. 

System load factor held steady while trip 

length increased 3.8 miles (0.3 percent) in 

2017, even as seats per aircraft mile increased by 1.9 percent; again reflecting the 

trend towards using larger aircraft. Seats per 

aircraft mile system-wide increased to 154.3 

seats (up 2.8 seats per aircraft mile), the 

highest level since 1990. 
16

International Market

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets 

– an outcome that is expected to continue

throughout the forecast horizon. Average 

annual growth rates (FY 2018-2038) of the 

international market (comprised of mainline 

and regional carriers) for enplanements, 

RPMs and ASMs are forecast at 3.4, 3.3, and 

3.3 percent, respectively.

While factors that restrained international 

growth in recent years still largely remain, 

conditions have matured and some of the uncertainty has subsided. Most importantly, 

world economic growth and trade has picked 

up, fears of a "hard landing" in China have 

lessened, oil prices, though increasing, appear to be on a steadier path, some progress 

has been made in defining the terms of 

Brexit, and the war against ISIS has turned a 

corner. None of these constraints has disappeared, of course, and security concerns 

continue to loom over the world as a threat to 

international travel.

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market
17

The next five years will feature a rebuilding 

of international demand by the U.S. carriers 

with moderate growth averaging around 3.6, 

3.7, and 3.7 percent a year for enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs, respectively. Airlines will continue to match capacity growth 

with traffic growth and load factor is expected 

to stabilize around 81.1%. Load factors this 

high were last seen in 2014. 

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International
18

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination despite the 

recent economic and political crises in Venezuela and Brazil. Enplanements in 2017 

grew an estimated 6.3 percent while RPMs 

increased 3.2 percent. Growth is projected 

to remain strong in 2018 but then slow in 

2019 as U.S. carriers trim capacity expansion to help stabilize yields. Enplanements 

and RPMs are forecast to increase 7.2 and 

6.4 percent, respectively, in 2018. Over the 

twenty-year period 2018-2038, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at 

an average rate of 3.8 percent a year while 

RPMs grow 4.1 percent a year. 

The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of 

enplanements despite the economic growth 

and potential of air travel to China and India. 

In 2017, U.S. carriers saw enplanements decline 0.8 percent from their 2016 levels while 

traffic (RPMs) increased by 3.0 percent. Although the region is forecast to have the highest economic growth of any region over the 

next 20 years, led by China and India, U.S. 

carrier enplanements and RPMs for the Pacific region are forecast to grow a modest 2.5 

and 2.6 percent a year, respectively. Traffic 

growth is relatively moderate in part because 

U.S. carriers continue to have a majority of 

their service in the region to Japan as opposed to faster growing markets. 

After slower activity in 2016, the Atlantic region saw an increase in enplanements of 1.9 

percent as well as an increase in RPMs of 

1.6 percent in 2017. Demand strengthened 

with the firming European economy and as 

the route to Brexit became slightly clearer. 

As conditions continue to improve, enplanement and RPM growth will strengthen further 

in coming years. Over the twenty-year period from 2018 to 2038, enplanements in the 

Atlantic region (including the Middle East and 

Africa) are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent a year while RPMs 

grow 2.9 percent a year. While Western Europe is a mature area with moderate economic growth, the economically smaller Mid0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2017E 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements
19

dle East and Africa areas are expanding rapidly with GDP growth rates more than twice 

that of Europe. As a result, a larger share of 

the forecast aviation demand in the Atlantic 

region is linked to those two areas, particularly in the second half of the forecast period. 

 

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world increased an estimated 5.4 

percent in 2017 (231.9 million) as all regions 

posted gains led by a 6.4 percent increase in 

the Atlantic region. 

FAA projects total passenger growth of 5.2 

percent in 2018 as global economic growth 

accelerates with the highest growth expected 

in the Latin region. Stable global economic 

growth averaging 2.9 percent a year over the 

next 20 years (2018-2038) is the foundation 

for the forecast growth of international passengers of 3.5 percent a year, as levels double from 244 million to 486 million. 

The Latin American region is the largest international market and is projected to grow at 

the fastest rate (3.7 percent a year) of any 

region over the forecast period. Within the 

region, Mexico and Dominican Republic are 

79 84 96 110 125 141 159

82 87 96

111

129

151

178

41 43

51

60

69

79

89

29 30

35

40

46

52

60

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
20

the two largest markets and are expected to 

post average annual growth rates of 3.4 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. 

Powered by economic growth and rising incomes in China and South Korea, total passengers in the Pacific region are forecast to 

more than double to 88 million by 2038. 

From 2018 to 2038, passengers between the 

United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.7 percent a year. 

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are 

more mature markets and are projected to 

have somewhat slower growth than the Latin 

or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.3 percent

a year as an increasing share of the passengers in this region come from the Middle East 

and Africa markets. Though sizable and 

comparable to Mexico in passenger traffic, 

the Canadian transborder market is considerably smaller than the Atlantic region. With 

solid North American economic growth, Canada transborder passengers are forecast to 

grow at an annual average of 3.4 percent a 

year over the next 20 years. 

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 39.2 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2017, up 9.6 percent from 

2016 with domestic cargo RTMs increasing 

9.5 percent to 14.6 billion while international 

RTMs rose 9.7 percent to 24.5 billion. Air 

cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 80.4 percent of total RTMs in 2017, 

with passenger carriers flying the remainder. 

Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers increased 9.9 percent in 2017 while total RTMs 

flown by passenger carriers grew by 8.4 percent. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can 

be divided into four regions consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ Total international RTMs in 2017 increased 9.7 percent to 24.5 billion, with all 

regions posting gains. 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, and globalization. In addition, a 

number of significant structural changes 

have occurred in the air cargo industry since 

2000. These include air cargo security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of 

the domestic express market, a shift from air 

to other modes (especially truck), use of allcargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. 

Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, 

cloud-based services). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) 

are based on several assumptions specific to 

the cargo industry. First, security restrictions 

on air cargo transportation will remain in 

place. Second, most of the shift from air to 

ground transportation has occurred. Finally, 
21

long-term cargo activity is driven by economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs are based on models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs are based on 

growth in world and regional GDP, adjusted 

for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers is 

forecast based on an analysis of historic 

trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

After increasing by 9.6 percent in 2017, total 

RTMs are forecast to grow 8.7 percent in 

2018. Driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent for the balance of the forecast period. 

Following a 9.5 percent increase in 2017, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 7.9

percent in 2018 as the U.S. economic recovery accelerates, stimulated in part by the recently passed tax cuts. Between 2017 and 

2038, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to 

increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 

percent. In 2017, all-cargo carriers carried 

89.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The 

all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.6 

percent by 2038 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs rose 9.7 percent in 

2017 after posting a 1.4 percent decline in 

2016. Faster economic growth in the U.S. 

and Europe helped to fuel a pickup in worldwide trade. Growth in international RTMs remain strong in 2018 at 9.2 percent as global 

trade growth continues to be robust. For the 

forecast period (2017-2038) international 

cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 4.7 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP with the Other International region having the fastest growth, 

followed by the Pacific, Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 71.6 percent in 2017. Continuing the trend experienced over the past 

decade, the all-cargo share of international 

RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly 

to 77.9 percent by 2038. 
22

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association 

(GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet

by aircraft categories, which are applied to 

the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts 

are carried out for “active aircraft,”3 not total 

aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in May and January. 

The results of the 2016 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The estimate of the GA active fleet was in decline between 2007 and 2013, especially between 

2011 and 2013, primarily due to the impact 

of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration, which removed cancelled, expired or revoked records 

from the Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its first increase since 2008, and the 

2016 Survey results showed continuing increase for one more year. The active GA 

fleet was estimated as 211,793 aircraft in 

2016 (up 0.8 percent from 2015), with 

24.8 million hours flown (up 2.9 percent from 

2015).

In 2017, the previous slow decline in deliveries of the general aviation industry reversed 

course with increases in the piston segment. 

Single engine piston deliveries by U.S. manufacturers were up 8.8 percent, while the 

smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries went up by 24.2 percent. Business jet

deliveries were about the same as the previous year, marginally down by 0.2 percent. 

Turboprop deliveries were also slightly down 

by 0.5 percent. Based on figures released 

by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general 

aviation aircraft delivered 1,596 aircraft in CY 

2017, 4.2 percent more than CY 2016. Overall piston deliveries were up 9.5 percent while

turbine shipments were down by 0.4 percent. 

 

3 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.
23

GAMA and industry experts also reported 

continuing decrease in rotorcraft deliveries 

has started to stabilize in 2017, as low oil 

prices began gradually to increase. 

Against these current conditions, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The 

active general aviation fleet is projected to remain around its current level, with the declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet being offset by increases in the turbine, experimental, 

and light sport fleets. The total active general 

aviation fleet changes from an estimated 

213,050 in 2017 to 214,090 aircraft by 2038. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 15,255 aircraft -- an average rate of 2.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 

2.2 percent a year. The growth in U.S. GDP 

and corporate profits are catalysts for the 

growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

forecast period by 22,350 aircraft (an average annual rate of -0.8 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing 

cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new 

aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of 

the decline.

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent annually, adding 

about 2,850 new aircraft by 2038, more than 

doubling its 2016 fleet size. 

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Shipments Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)
24

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to remain stable, the number of general aviation hours flown is forecast

to increase an average of 0.8 percent per 

year through 2038 from 24.8 million in 2016 

to 30.2 million, as the newer aircraft fly more 

hours each year. Fixed wing piston hours 

are forecast to decrease by 1.0 percent, 

slightly faster than the fleet decline of 0.9 percent. Countering this trend, hours flown by 

turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 2.4 percent yearly over the 

forecast period. Jet aircraft are expected to 

account for most of the increase, with hours 

flown increasing at an average annual rate of 

2.7 percent over the forecast period. The 

large increases in jet hours result mainly from 

the increasing size of the business jet fleet, 

along with estimated increases in utilization 

rates. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2018 2028 2038

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
25

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, 

faces the challenges brought by lower oil 

prices, a trend which has now started to stabilize. The low oil prices impacted utilization 

rates and new aircraft orders both directly 

through decreasing activity in oil exploration, 

and also through a slowdown in related economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 2.2 percent annually over 

the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.4 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 609,306

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2017. All pilot categories, with the exception 

of rotorcraft only certificates, continued to increase. The number of student pilot certificates has been affected by two recent regulatory changes; first, the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 

from 36 months to 60 months. The second 

one, which went into effect in April 2016 removed the expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. The number of student 

pilots increased from 72,280 in 2009 to 

119,119 in 2010. By 2016 they totaled

128,501 and with no expiration of certificates 

jumped to 149,121 by the end of 2017. 

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2008 2018 2028 2038

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
26

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates.

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to decrease about 22,600 (down 0.4 percent 

yearly) over the forecast period. The ATP 

category is forecast to increase by 22,600 

(up 0.7 percent annually). The much smaller 

category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 3.3 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private 

and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate 

of 0.8 and 0.5 percent, respectively until 

2038. 

Student pilot forecast is currently suspended 

because of the April 2016 rule change that 

the new student pilot certificates do not expire. This change generates a cumulative increase in the certificate numbers and breaks 

the link between student pilot and advanced 

certificate levels of private pilot or higher. 

There is not sufficient data currently to perform a reliable forecast for the student pilots.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2007 2017 2027 2038

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Air Transport Pilots

Rotorcraft only
27

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9

percent a year between 2018 and 2038. 

Commercial operations4

 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 

five times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations 

is less than the growth in U.S. airline passengers (1.5 percent vs. 1.9 percent) over the 

forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft 

(seats per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines 

to accommodate more passengers without 

increasing the number of flights. General 

aviation operations (which accounted for 

50.8% of operations in 2017) are forecast to 

increase an average of 0.3 percent a year as 

increases in turbine powered activity more 

than offset declines in piston activity. 

 

4 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

5 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations5 are forecast to grow slightly 

faster than at towered facilities. This is in 

part a reflection of the different mix of activity 

at Tracons. Tracon operations are forecast 

to increase an average of 1.0 percent a year 

between 2018 and 2038. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 2017 and are 

projected to grow 1.5 percent a year over the 

forecast period. General aviation activity at 

these facilities is projected to grow only 0.4 

percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. In 

2017, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route Centers increased 1.4 percent, led by increases 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2008 2018 2028 2038

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower 

Operations

Commercial Non Commercial
28

in the Air Taxi and General Aviation categories. Growth in airline traffic and business 

aviation is expected to lead to increases in 

activity at En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route 

centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year as increases 

in Air Carrier and General Aviation activity 

offset declines in Air Taxi activity. Activity at 

En-Route centers is forecast to grow faster 

than activity at towered airports because 

more of the activity at En-Route centers is 

from the faster growing commercial sector 

and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing 

more slowly, is local in nature, and does not 

impact the centers.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2008 2018 2028 2038

AC Handled (000)

Fiscal Year

En-Route Center 

Aircraft Handled

Commercial Non Commercial
29

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,141 in 

2017 to 8,290 in 2038, an average annual 

growth rate of 0.7 percent a year. Increased 

demand for air travel and growth in air cargo 

is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2017 and 2038 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 4,155 to 5,101, a net average of 

45 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at JetBlue and C-series at 

Delta) is projected to grow 27 aircraft a year 

as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current 

technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with 

the next generation MAX and Neo families. 

The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 

15 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 

787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-

300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. 

passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases 

by 61 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,131 aircraft in 2017 to 2,011 in 

2038 as the fleet shrinks by 10.5 percent 

(202 aircraft) between 2017 and 2028. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire 

older small turboprop and piston aircraft, 

while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the 

E-2 family after 2020. By 2030 only a handful 

of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2038, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,910, up from 1,644 in 2017. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by 79% from 487 in 2017 to 101 by 

2038. These aircraft account for just 5.0 percent of the fleet in 2038, down from 22.9 percent in 2017. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 855 aircraft in 2017 

to 1,178 aircraft in 2038 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by less than 1

aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are converted from passenger use to cargo service. 

The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 15 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 

777-200, and new and converted 767-300 

aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older 

MD-11, A300/310, and 767-200 freighters. 
30

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2007 2017 2027 2038

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
31

Commercial Space

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

Act). Notably, AST’s purview does not extend to military or civilian government [e.g., 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)] launches. Title 51 and the Executive Order also direct the U.S. Department of Transportation to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. commercial 

launches. The FFA’s mission is to license 

and regulate commercial launch and reentry 

operations and non-federal launch sites to 

protect public health and safety, the safety of 

property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. 

With its dual mission of regulating and also 

promoting the emerging commercial space 

transportation industry, FAA faces unique 

challenges. 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the 

United States. The FAA does not license 

launches or reentries the U.S. Government 

carries out for the Government (such as 

those operated for and by NASA or the Department of Defense). FAA does not license 

or grant permits for amateur-class rockets 

which are unmanned rockets that have less 

than 200,000 pound-seconds of total impulse 

and cannot reach an altitude greater than 

150 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. 

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs 

the following major functions:

• Maintains an effective regulatory 

framework for commercial space

transportation activities by developing regulations and guidance, 

• Provides guidance to prospective 

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for

obtaining an authorization and operating safely, 

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space

activities,

• Evaluates applications for licenses

for launch and reentry site operations, 

• Monitors and enforces regulatory 

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

and other regulated commercial 

space activities,

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

or reentry,

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) by coordinating airspace

use and regulatory oversight with air 

traffic management and Federal

launch ranges, 

• Coordinates research into the safety, 

environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the
32

evolving commercial space transportation industry, 

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space industry by hosting working 

groups and conferences, 

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as NASA, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency 

(DARPA), and the U.S. Air Force to 

assure consistent approaches to regulation, policy, and standards, and

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote a balanced

and consistent regulatory framework 

across the world.

In addition to FAA headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains field offices near active launch ranges to facilitate 

communication with space launch operators 

and to implement FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are 

currently assigned to four field offices in 

close proximity to: Kennedy Space Center in 

Florida; Johnson Space Center in Texas; 

and, Vandenberg Air Force Base and the 

Mojave Air and Space Port in California. Due 

to industry expansion, FAA is considering 

additional field offices to accommodate the 

anticipated increase in launch and reentry 

operations in other parts of the United 

States. FAA also directly supports NASA’s 

commercial space initiatives by providing 

on-site staff at both the Johnson Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to coordinate 

the FAA’s regulatory and enforcement activities with NASA’s development and operational requirements for commercial space.

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of 

FAA

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many important activities performed by FAA during this cycle. The most 

notable activities are described here. 

Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses, 

Experimental Permits and Safety Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, 

FAA assists them in identifying potential obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. The growth in both the number 

of commercial space operators and the number of operations will likely increase FAA’s 

pre-application consultation workload over 

the next five years. Furthermore, many new

operators are seeking to incorporate new

technologies, vehicle types, or operational

models that create challenges for FAA in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance. 

Licenses, Permits and Safety Approvals

An increasing number of applicants for licenses, permits, safety approvals, and renewals has a direct impact on the number of 

launches and reentries at some uncertain 

point in the future. Though many licenses authorize multiple launches (for mature launch

systems), the need remains for FAA to also 

issue individual launch licenses for systems 

that are still maturing, especially those systems for human space flight missions. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial 

space industry, FAA often evaluates launch 

and reentry systems and operations that are 
33

evolving and changing, which may ultimately 

require license modifications or issuance of 

new licenses.

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 

health and safety or the safety of property, 

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States. 

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

or payload determination becomes part of 

the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing 

determination is based.

FAA also reviews and issues launch and 

reentry site operator licenses and license renewals. FAA also reviews and evaluates 

launch site license applications for launch

sites located in foreign countries but operating with U.S.-licensed launch or reentry systems. FAA coordinates range planning

among Federal, state, and local governments and with the commercial range operators or users. As part of the evaluation of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also 

conducts environmental reviews consistent

with its responsibilities under the National 

Environmental Policy Act. 

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety approvals for space launch systems 

equipment, processes, technicians, training

and other supporting activities. FAA reviews, 

evaluates, and issues safety approvals to 

support the continued introduction of new

safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications.

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive 

safety analyses to support the evaluation and

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance and

capabilities of space flight crews to determine how human factors affect overall public 

safety risk. As commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, FAA will evaluate, analyze, and determine the health risks to the space flight participants (crew and “passengers”) due to natural and flight-induced launch and reentry 

environments, as well as any hazardous

ground operations directly associated with 

the flight. FAA will also need to evaluate the

safety of ground operations at “spaceports” 

and exclusive-use sites. 

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 400 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year, often 

conducting several inspections simultaneously, at any of the approximately 20 U.S. 

and international commercial space launch 

sites. The establishment of non-federal 

launch sites requires additional inspections

in areas such as ground safety that have traditionally been overseen by the U.S. Air 

Force at Federal ranges. At spaceports and

launch sites with high launch rates (e.g., 

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, and Spaceport America), 

at least 85 percent of the inspections must be

conducted by locally-based field inspectors 

in order to respond to a dynamic operational 
34

tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency. 

Mishap Investigations

Multiple mishap events in 2015 demonstrated that FAA must have the capacity to 

investigate at least two space launch or 

reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously 

anywhere in the world, and to lead as many

as six investigations during a single year. 

FAA must have the capabilities and resources to safely perform the investigations 

lasting as long as 16 weeks at remote sites

with no infrastructure or facilities. FAA must 

have the capability and resources to efficiently review all applicant mishap plans and

accident investigation procedures as part of 

the license and permit evaluation process.

NAS Integration

AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP) to 

support the safe and efficient integration of 

commercial launch and reentry operations

into the NAS and its system of airports and 

air traffic managed by the ATO. AST expects 

an increased level of interaction with the

ATO, ARP, and the FAA Office of NextGen

(ANG). This includes an increased presence

at the Air Traffic Control System Command

Center and other locations to assist in the

strategic and tactical planning of launch and

reentry operations, as well as to provide support during these operations. Further, AST 

will continue the development of technologies to facilitate safe and efficient integration

of commercial launch and reentry operations

into the NAS, in partnership with ANG and

ATO, including technologies to improve the

integration of launch and reentry data into 

FAA air traffic control systems and technologies to improve the timely and accurate development and distribution of notices of aircraft hazard areas. 

FAA’s Operations Forecast

To improve its workforce planning process, 

in 2014, FAA adopted an approach to estimate its future staffing needs based on the

ratio of regulatory safety oversight staff to a 

forecast of launch and reentry operations 

within the purview of the FAA mission. Although it was a modest improvement, this 

change set the groundwork for FAA to implement a more objective and transparent process for projecting staffing requirements and 

also necessitated development of credible operations forecasts. Since 2014, FAA has 

made several important improvements to its 

operations forecast: 

• In 2015, FAA began using planned

launch and reentry data collected

from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its 

launch and reentry forecasts. This 

change enabled FAA to simplify and

improve its forecasting methodology 

by tying launch and reentry forecasts 

directly to anticipated operations by 

commercial space transportation firms 

known to FAA, rather than to aggregate industry demand.

• Because commercial spaceflight is a 

highly dynamic and rapidly evolving 

industry, it was quickly determined 

that operator-provided data alone 

were not a reliable indicator of future 

activity. There is a natural, inherent 

bias by industry to be optimistic 

about their business prospects. Consequently, FAA adopts a cautionary 

view of what industry representatives 

say will happen versus what may 

reasonably be expected to happen. 

A primary pillar of FAA’s forecasting 

methodology is to err on the side of 

caution and take a conservative view 

of industry growth. Therefore, in 
35

2016, FAA further refined its forecasting methodology by using observations about historical launch activity 

to establish better forecasting parameters for both new applicants and existing operators. 

Based on proprietary information available 

to FAA, an increase in launch and reentry activities expected in the coming years. There 

are several factors that magnify the challenges associated with predicting the number of launches and reentries to expect in a 

given year. They include:

• the list of firms intending to launch or 

actually launch is dynamic, 

• the continued development of new 

technologies, and 

• mishaps. 

For example, the number of firms actively 

communicating with FAA increased from 14 

in August of 2014 to 46 three years later, an 

increase of more than 300%. New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)] 

allow a faster operational tempo, and at the 

same time, early use of these technologies 

can increase the probability of a mishap. A 

mishap can derail launch plans for one or 

more firms. Investigations and subsequent 

“return to flight” for firms impacted by a mishap can take months to years. Taking these 

factors into account, the following table and 

graph provide historical activity and FAA’s 

forecast through calendar year 2020.
36

Fiscal Year Actual/Forecast AST Licensed and Permitted Operations

2013 Actual 20

2014 Actual 20

2015 Actual 14

2016 Actual 17

2017 Actual 22

2018 Forecast 27 – 38

2019 Forecast 43 – 48

2020 Forecast 39 – 61

Notes:

1. Forecast entries represent the Low to High estimate.

2. Six mishaps in 2015 caused the number of launch and reentry operations to fall significantly from the previous year rather than increase 

as expected.
37

It is important to note that the operations included in the forecast will occur at a variety 

of locations throughout the National Airspace 

System (NAS). That is, not all launch and 

reentry activity occurs at one location, for example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the NAS and beyond, including multiple reentries in the Pacific Ocean 

and one licensed launch from New Zealand. 

Furthermore, the forecast above only deals 

with launches and reentries licensed by FAA. 

It does not include launch activity for the rest 

of the world, and it is not tied exclusively to 

satellite demand.

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast 

Accuracy

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly 

evolving industry. The industry’s growth 

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging on an Accelerated 

Basis 

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies

and new approaches to space launch and

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their rockets, a development that 

could significantly reduce the cost of operations and lead to an increase in the number 

of launch and reentry operations per year. 

Several other U.S. commercial entities are 

also pursuing the development of reusable 

launch vehicles (RLVs). At the same time, 

state and local governments are joining with 

commercial firms to promote additional 

launch and reentry sites, and some firms are 

seeking to establish launch sites for their exclusive use. This added launch capacity sets 

the stage for simultaneous operations and an 

increase in the number operations per year.

New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation are Emerging 

The continuing development of commercial 

space transportation technology has spurred

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As private industry continues 

to develop and test new vehicles capable of 

taking space flight participants on suborbital 

and orbital flights, companies and organizations are proposing to offer human space

flight training and several organizations have 

already begun to provide this service. States

and municipalities have sought to open new

spaceports to attract commercial space

transportation and associated high-tech

firms and create business hubs for research 

and development. Since 2008, the NASA

has managed the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services from commercial providers 

to deliver cargo to and from the International 

Space Station (ISS). NASA is also working 

with commercial companies under its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities

contract to develop vehicles that will provide

transportation for astronauts and international partners to and from the ISS. These

vehicles are expected to commence test 

flights and subsequent operational missions

within the next five years. The commercial 

vehicles used by NASA for cargo and crew

transportation will have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the

commercial space transportation industry as 

a whole.
38

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers. 

Extensive FAA resources will be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests.
39

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

From its infancy, just a few years ago, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have been 

experiencing robust growth in the United 

States and throughout the world. A UAS is an 

unmanned aircraft and its associated communication links and control components required for the safe and efficient operation of 

the unmanned aircraft in the national airspace system (NAS). While the introduction 

of UAS into the NAS has opened up numerous possibilities, it has also created unique

operational challenges. Despite these challenges, the UAS sector holds enormous potential, with commercial applications ranging

from aerial photography to package delivery. 

This section covers trends across the broad 

landscape of the established and emerging 

UAS industry, from model to non-model aircraft6 . Using these trends and insights from 

industry, the FAA has produced a number of 

forecasts. The forecasts reported in this section are driven primarily by the assumption of 

the continuing evolution of the regulatory environment, the commercial ingenuity of manufacturers and operators, and underlying demand, including business models. These 

drivers will continue to advance safe integration of UAS into the NAS.

Trends in UAS and Forecast

FAA’s online registration system went into effect on Dec. 21, 2015. This required all UAS 

 

6 These are also called, interchangeably, hobby 

and non-hobby UAS, respectively. In previous 

weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 

grams) and less than 55 pounds to be registered using a new on-line system 

(https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/registration/) or using the existing (paper-based) aircraft registration process. However, the U.S. Court of Appeals issued an order suspending the registration requirement for model aircraft owners on May 

19, 2017. On December 12, 2017, the President signed the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which reinstated the 

registration requirement for all model aircraft. 

By the end of May 2017, more than 772,000 

owners had already registered with the FAA. 

While mandatory registration was in effect 

until the last week of May 2017, the trend 

was one of slowing growth over time. On average, weekly registration ranged from 

4,000-5,000 from January-May, 2017, with 

some expected peaks during the holiday 

season. Following the Court Order, the online registry continued to accept voluntary 

registrations from modelers. However, the 

registration data from the second half of 

2017 may not reflect an accurate trend for 

model aircraft growth. 

notes including other documents of the Agency, 

these terms are often interchanged. 
40

Model registration and thus ownership of 

small model UAS is distributed across the 

country. A spatial distribution of ownership 

demonstrates that sUAS are distributed 

throughout the country with denser ownership mapping closely against the population 

centers of the country. 

Registration does not translate to aircraft in 

the system, the primary focus of the Agency. 

Unlike registration for non-model aircraft, the 

registration rule does not require modelers to 

register each individual aircraft; owners may

register once and apply their registration 

number to multiple model aircraft. For each 

registration, therefore, one or more aircraft 

are possibly owned (with few exceptions of 

no equipment being owned as well). 

Under the sponsorship of the UAS Implementation Plan, the FAA has launched various research activities to understand the 

possible magnitude of the UAS sector, implications on the spectrum of aircraft that may 

be used for model flying, and the safety implications of the gradual integration of the

UAS fleet into the NAS. The Agency has also 

engaged outside consulting firms to aid forecasting efforts for both the model and nonmodel UAS fleet. 

Prior to undertaking the forecast, the first 

task was to extrapolate the trends of model 

ownership registration beyond May 2017 for 

the entire year, using data from earlier years 

and industry information. This introduces 

considerable uncertainty in the forecast, particularly for model aircraft. Thus, the FAA 

continues to recognize, as in earlier years, 

that uncertainty abounds in projections for

both the model and non-model UAS fleet. 

Hence, we provide a forecast base (i.e. 

likely) with high (or optimistic) and low ranges 

in the following table for the model UAS fleet. 

With over 873,000 modelers registered as of 

December 31, 2017 (extrapolated from JuneDecember), we project that there are around 

1.1 million sUAS identified distinctly as 

model aircraft. In contrast to last year’s projection of 1.1 million units, the actual number 

of model aircraft was around 788,570 for 

2016 – 28% lower than what we projected. A 

comparison of last year’s data with this year’s 

(2017) shows the compound annual growth 

rate to be around 40%. This is still a substantial growth rate, as anticipated from the introduction of drones as a hobby, facilitated by 

falling equipment prices, improved technology such as built-in cameras, and the relative 

ease of maneuvering. However, the trend is 

likely to slow as the pace of falling prices 

slow and early adopters begin to experience 

limits to their experiments. Given the trend 

observed in the number of registrations, expert opinions collected in Transportation Research Board (TRB) annual workshops, re-
41

view of available industry forecasts, and market/industry research, we forecast that the 

model fleet will likely (i.e. base scenario) 

more than double in size over the next 5 

years, from the present 1.1 million units to 

over 2.4 million units. The high/optimistic

scenario suggests this growth may be as 

high as 3.17 million units, while the low scenario shows it could be as low as 1.96 million 

units. The growth rates underlying these 

numbers are fairly steady in the initial years 

but more modest in the last 2 years. The 

gradual market saturation that is projected in 

5 years and beyond in the model aircraft fleet 

parallels other consumer technology products such as cell phones and video gameconsoles, and prior to that, video cameras 

and video players. 

Commercial UAS Forecast

The online registration system for the nonmodel fleet went into effect on April 1, 2016. 

Unlike the rules for model ownership, nonmodel owners must register each individual 

UAS. Since the launch of on-line registration, 

more than 110,000 commercial operators 

had registered their equipment by the end of 

2017. Information contained here shows the 

trend in the total fleet size since the time 

when registration began in the 2nd quarter of 

2016. For each week the registration has been 

available, over 1,000 aircraft have been registered. As in the case of model UAS ownership, non-model UAS are distributed across 

Total Model Fleet

(Million sUAS Units)

year Low Base High

2017 1.10 1.10 1.10

2018 1.50 1.60 1.73

2019 1.76 2.00 2.35

2020 1.87 2.20 2.73

2021 1.92 2.30 2.94

2022 1.96 2.40 3.17
42

the country. A spatial distribution of unit registration (using data for October 2017) 

demonstrates that non-model UAS are distributed throughout the country, with denser 

activities correlating closely with the economic or commercial activities of the country. 

The non-model sector is primarily commercial in nature. It is very dynamic and appears 

to be at an early stage of growth. Unlike the 

model sector, we anticipate that the growth

rate in this sector will continue to accelerate 

over the next few years. Additional commercial uses will likely result from both the clarity 

that Part 107 has provided and the possibilities for waivers, which will likely facilitate further growth in the sector. 

Last year, we forecasted that the non-model 

sector would comprise approximately 

108,000 aircraft in 2017, a growth rate exceeding 150% from the base of 42,000 in 

2016. Actual data indicate there were 

110,604 UAS registered at the end of 2017. 

Considering the trend observed in the registrations, expert opinions provided during the 

TRB workshops, review of available industry 

forecasts, internal research, and market/industry research, we project that the nonmodel fleet by 2022 will likely (i.e. base scenario) be four times larger than the current 

number of non-model aircraft. As the present 

base (i.e. cumulative total) gets larger, we 

anticipate the growth rate of the sector will 

slow down over time as well. 

The forecast of non-model UAS does not fundamentally change from the growth path laid 

out last year. Similar to last year, we project 

the non-model sUAS sector will be over 

450,000 in 2022. 

We divide the non-model sector into two 

types of UAS aircraft: consumer grade and 

professional grade. The consumer grade 

non-model aircraft have a wide price range, 

below US $10,000 with an average unit price 

of around $2,500. The professional grade is 

typically priced above $10,000, with a unit 

price assumed to be around $25,000. Currently, the consumer grade dominates the 

non-model sector, with a market share approaching 98%. However, as the sector matures and the industry begins to consolidate, 

the share of consumer grade non-model aircraft is likely to decline but remain dominant. 

By 2022, FAA projects this sub-sector will 

have less than a 90% share of the overall 

consumer grade non-model UAS sector. 

Starting from a low base of around 3,000 aircraft in 2017, professional grade non-model 

UAS stand to expand rapidly over time, especially as newer and more sophisticated 

uses are identified, designed, and planned. 

If, for example, professional grade UAS meet 

feasibility criteria of operations, safety, regulations, and economics/business, and they 

enter into the logistics chain via delivery of 

small packages, the growth in this sector will 

likely be phenomenal. In a similar vein, the 

Low Altitude Authorization and Notification 
43

Capability (LAANC)7, which began testing in 

2017 and is planned to be rolled out nationally over this year, is designed to allow considerable flexibility in UAS operations and facilitate non-modelers’ use of the NAS. While 

most of the near-term growth in non-model 

UAS will still come from operations with consumer grade UAS (over 90%), we anticipate 

the remainder will come from professional 

grade non-model UAS. 

Unlike the model counterpart, it is extremely 

difficult to put a lower bound on the growth of 

the non-model sector due to its composition 

(i.e. consumer vs. professional grades) and 

the varying business opportunities and 

growth paths. As non-model aircraft become 

operationally more efficient and safe, battery 

life expands, and regulatory constraints are 

reduced, new business models will begin to 

develop, thus enhancing robust supply-side 

responses. These responses, in turn, will pull 

demand forces (e.g. consumer response to 

receiving commercial packages, routine 

blood delivery to hospitals, etc.) that are 

presently latent. As a result, we provide a 

likely or base scenario together with the 

enormous potential embodied in the “high” 

scenario, representing cumulative annual 

growth rates of 33% and 46%, respectively. 

 

7 Through LAANC, the FAA will grant real-time 

authorizations for operations complying with Part 

107 via speeding up processing time (i.e., realNon-model UAS are presently used for numerous purposes. A review of market analyses and industry information reveals their 

present uses (following chart) have not 

changed much from last year: 

Non-model UAS are primarily used for aerial 

imaging and data collection, including real 

estate photography (48%), industrial and utility inspection (28%), and agricultural applications (17%), including crop inspection. Increasingly, state and local governments are 

using UAS for emergency services, including 

search and rescue operations, and presently 

employ around 3% of all non-model UAS. As

the sector grows, there will be many more 

non-model UAS in use. 

time) of the authorization requests. It is likely to 

reduce any distractions of controllers at the Towers. 

Total non-Model Fleet

(no. of units)

year Base High

2017 110,604 110,604

2018 158,900 168,339

2019 229,400 268,937

2020 312,100 410,862

2021 407,400 604,550

2022 451,800 717,895
44

One way of identifying early trends of nonmodel UAS uses is to analyze the waiver applications granted to non-model UAS operators. Both the magnitude and relative composition of waiver types may indicate the direction of the non-model UAS sector as a whole. 

A breakdown of the waiver requests granted 

is shown in the chart below: 

Beyond what is presently allowed under Part 

107, expanding non-model applications requires waivers for night operations (86% of 

all waivers granted), operation of multiple unmanned aircraft by one pilot (1.5%), and operations above current altitude limits (1.3%). 

Many of these waivers include combinations 

of multiple waived provisions, and hence, totaling waivers granted by provision (more 

than 1,600 in December 2017) exceeds 

100%. The Agency issues these waivers to 

facilitate expanded commercial activities by 

non-model UAS on a case-by-case basis, 

while it develops additional regulations to enable more advanced operations on a routine 

basis. Analysis of these waiver applications 

allows us to understand the industry trends, 

one of many metrics essential for understanding and projecting the trajectory, course 

corrections, and growth trends of the sector. 

Finally, almost 13,000 airspace authorizations and waivers were approved for UAS operations in controlled airspaces by the end of 

December 2017. While over half of them 

were for operation in class D airspace (i.e., 

smaller airports with control towers), waivers 

for operation in other classes were also requested and approved. 

Large UAS

According to FAA rules, UAS weighing more 

than 55 pounds must be registered using the 

existing aircraft registration process (14 CFR 

part 47). Many of these aircraft are operated 

within the NAS by federal agencies, state 

and local governments, and national research organizations. While many of these 

organizations require certificates of waiver or 

authorization (COAs) to fly, others have their 

own procedures for authorizations, e.g. Military, Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), etc. 

While the FAA has a great deal of experience 

enabling operations with this class of UAS 

within the NAS, we do not have the equivalent level of understanding of the fleet numbers and trends in the growth of these types 

of UAS. Further examination and research 

may lead us to better identify trends and 

eventually develop a forecast in the future.

Remote Pilot Forecast

An important final metric in non-model sUAS 

is the trend in remote pilot certifications

(RPCs). RPCs are issued in accordance with 

part 107 and are used primarily to facilitate 

non-model sUAS flights for commercial activities. As of December 2017, more than
45

73,000 RPCs were issued. Over 90% of individuals who took the required aeronautical 

knowledge exam passed and obtained an 

RPC. The RPC forecasts presented are 

based on two data sources: (a) trends in 

RPCs issued; and (b) trends in non-model 

sUAS registration and fleet forecasts. For 

projecting RPCs, we assume that one pilot is 

likely to handle 1.5 units of non-model sUAS. 

Combining these assumptions with the base 

scenario of non-model sUAS forecast, we 

project RPCs in the above graph. As evident, 

RPCs are set to experience tremendous 

growth following the growth trends of the 

non-model sUAS sector. Starting from the 

base of 73,673 RPCs in 2017, non-model activities may require over 300,000 new remote 

pilots in 5 years, providing tremendous opportunities for growth in employment associated with commercial activities of the UAS. 

 
46

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is powered, 

at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and 

global economies. Shifting international dynamics and impacts resulting from the U.S.

administration’s economic policies could 

drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest worldwide risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist 

incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be 

greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity. 

Although oil prices remained below $50 per 

barrel for most of 2017, the recent volatility 

reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices. 

The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from 

economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s January 2018 U.S. macro forecast 

and 30-Year Focus released during the 

fourth quarter of 2017) calls for oil prices to 

increase to $54 per barrel in 2018 and rise 

steadily after 2020. By 2030 oil prices exceed $100 per barrel and approach $120 per 

barrel by the end of the forecast period in 

2038. Some forecasters are calling for a 

more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In 

October 2017, the World Bank released its 

latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to rise to $56 per barrel in 2018, remaining below $65 until 2025, 

and reaching $70 per barrel by 2030. The 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees 

oil prices increasing at more moderate rates 

than the FAA’s base forecast. In its July 

2017 release, the IMF forecast had oil prices 

increasing from $49 per barrel in 2017 to only 

$54.80 per barrel by 2022. Over the long 

run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air 

travel, and should enhance industry profitability.

The baseline forecast incorporates the December 2017 U.S. tax cuts and some additional infrastructure spending in 2018 and 

beyond. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of these programs that ultimately determines the impact on the future growth of the 

U.S. economy. In addition, how the U.S. will 

engage with the rest of the global economy 

over the next several years continues to be 

evolve. Under the right conditions, a period 

of sustained high and more inclusive growth 

along with increased financial stability could 

occur but there is also the possibility of an 

outcome that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that global 

economic growth will accelerate after 2017, 

but weakness in certain regions may 

threaten the strength and sustainability of the 

expansion. The baseline forecast assumes 

that China and India will be growth engines 

for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance 

on heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its 

economy more competitive. While economic 
47

growth appears to be accelerating in the 

U.S., there are concerns about the strength 

of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems 

(high debt, slow population growth, weak 

public finances for example) and the outcome of political elections. Furthermore, the 

actions taken to stabilize the global economy 

during the Great Recession continue to hamper economic policy makers. There are concerns that central banks may not raise interest rates in time to contain asset bubbles and 

inflationary expectations or raise rates too 

fast and undermine the recovery. In advanced economies, governments need to 

shore up their finances and recent actions 

have many analysts concerned that policy 

makers will not take the steps needed. There 

exists a non-trivial possibility that authorities 

will either act prematurely or be excessively 

timid and late in taking necessary steps to 

maintain a healthy global economy. The current forecasts assume strong passenger 

growth for travel between the United States 

and other world regions. Any slowing of 

worldwide economic activity could seriously 

inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

With the approval of the Alaska Airlines/Virgin America merger, the outlook for further 

consolidation via mergers and acquisitions 

(M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based 

on FY 2017 data, the top 6 (American, Delta, 

United, Southwest) plus Alaska/Virgin and 

JetBlue accounted for more than 85% of the 

U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. For 

many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of risk associated with a merger makes further merger 

activity unlikely. For the network carriers, it 

is unclear how regulatory authorities will respond to any future proposed mergers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new 

rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a 

lack of pilots. Although air travel demand 

continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of 

Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional 

operators have not abated. Network carriers 

continue to adjust the size and breadth of 

their networks. In many cases there are not 

opportunities for regional carriers to backfill 

the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well 

along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 

seat) regional jet fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring its total to just 125 by 2018, 

down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. 

United has reduced the number of small regional jets flown by its partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 256 by the end of 2017. 

However, it plans to add 40 more small regional jets to its fleet in 2018 as part of its 

latest expansion plan. Meanwhile American 

has trimmed its small regional jet fleet by 90 

aircraft since the beginning of 2015 from 297 

to 207 aircraft and has plans to reduce an additional 5 aircraft in 2018. At the same time 

the carrier plans to add 15 larger regional jets 

to its fleet in 2018, on top of the 86 that have 

been added since 2015. While these actions 

may provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact 

of consolidation so far has been to reduce 

opportunities for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation 

have seen a partial recovery during the past 

eight years. The future pace of the recovery 

in business and corporate aviation is based 

largely upon the prospects for economic 

growth and corporate profits. Uncertainty in 
48

these leading indicators poses a risk to the 

forecast, but the risk is not limited to these 

factors. Other influences, such as potential 

environmental regulations and taxes do not 

seem to be as much of a concern in the short 

term, but over the long term, uncertainties 

about the direction of these influences may

place downward pressure on the forecast. 

On the other hand, there could be a pent-up 

demand for business jets in the near term 

that could push the forecast higher. While 

corporate profits have been high for several 

years, perceived economic and political uncertainties have caused companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. 

With the U.S. administration’s emphasis on 

policies designed to stimulate economic 

growth and limit regulation, and the favorable 

terms of the new tax law, companies are feeling more optimistic about their future prospects that can translate into additional business jet sales. The impact of fuel price 

movements on business aircraft demand is 

also uncertain. Overall, the positive effect of 

declining fuel prices on corporate profits

translates to increased demand for business 

aircraft. However, business aircraft demand 

from energy related industries will be negatively impacted if fuel prices remain low (by 

historic standards) for an extended period in 

the future. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient 

product offerings and increased competition 

from new entrant manufacturers, serve to 

broaden the potential of the industry. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the 

subsequent travel hassles placed on airline 

passengers, could make corporate jet travel 

look increasingly appealing. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of regional jets and 

business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into the national 

airspace system will make the FAA’s job 

more challenging. This change in the mix of 

aircraft will most likely add to workload above 

and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the growth in operations over the forecast period. 

While overall activity at FAA and contract 

towers increased 0.7 percent in 2017, activity 

at large and medium hub airports (60 in total)

increased 0.4 percent in 2017 and delays remained at historically high levels at many 

U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at 

these airports to grow substantially faster 

than the overall national trend. As demand 

continues to grow and workload increases, 

congestion and delays could become critical 

limits to growth over the forecast period. 

FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume 

that there will be sufficient infrastructure to 

handle the projected levels of activity. 

Should the infrastructure be inadequate and 

result in even more congestion and delays, it 

is likely that the forecasts of both demand 

and operations would not be achieved. 

Increasing concerns about aviation environmental impacts could potentially limit or delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow to 

meet national economic and mobility needs. 

Airspace modernization and airport expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, and water quality. Community concerns about aviation noise have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. Without effective 

measures to mitigate and abate aviation 

noise, the infrastructure projects needed to 

achieve aviation growth may be delayed. 
49

The environmental noise and emissions issues associated with overflight operations 

also present global challenges. In addition to

providing economic benefits, technologies to 

improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce 

fuel consumption provide benefits in terms of 

reduced noise and emissions. A global market-based measure for international carbon 

dioxide emissions will help ensure an approach that is economically preferable to a 

patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations around the world. Continued advancements in technologies that result in improved 

fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, 

noise reduction and reduced emissions are 

also required to ensure that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the in-service fleet, which in turn 

may depress growth. 
50

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro 

Baselines were used. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumptions from IHS 

Global Insight’s 10-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their January 2018 

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were combined with the optimistic and pessimistic 

forecasts from their Fall 2017 30-year U.S. 

Macro forecast. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create a “high” 

and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative scenarios use inputs based on ratios derived 

from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners

optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order 

to create a high and low case. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth remains solid

over the next few years as both consumer 

and business spending provide support. Recent tax cuts result in some near-term stimulus to both sectors. Oil prices remain relatively low by historic standards and there are 

no external shocks. 

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS 

Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees stronger overall growth 

driven initially by a recovery in the housing 

market. After struggling in 2017, household 

formation rates recover, leading to increased 

residential investment and consumer spending. Higher business investment generates 

stronger productivity growth, which combines with lower oil prices to restrain wage 

and price pressures. Confidence is high and 

the stock market sees strong gains while interest rates remain slightly lower than in the 

baseline scenario. Stronger imports accompany the increased domestic demand but exports rise as well with improving foreign economic conditions. 

In this scenario, real personal consumption 

expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.6 percentage points faster per year
51

than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.7 points lower on a fiscal 

year basis than the baseline.8

 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In

this forecast, contraction of an overheated 

commercial real estate market combined 

with a shock to confidence ends the longrunning expansion. The economy suffers a 

two-quarter recession in the second half of 

2018 and GDP growth averages 0.3 percentage points lower than in the baseline over the 

first ten years of the forecast. Long-term interest rates rise, derailing the housing recovery and pushing residential investment 9.0 

percentage points below the baseline in the 

first two years of the forecast. The higher interest rates constrain business investment 

 

8 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts 

of enplanements.

and consumer spending as well, adding to 

the drag on the economy and the stock market falls sharply. Monetary policy effectively 

lowers short-term interest rates, which provides support to the economy, bringing it out 

of recession and boosting it slightly above 

the baseline for a few subsequent years. Oil 

prices rise faster than the baseline throughout the forecast. 

Real PCE per capita in this scenario grows 

0.4 percentage points slower per year than in 

the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.4 points higher on an annual basis 

than in the baseline.
52

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

 290

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

 390

2017 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight
53

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow 

growth of energy prices and import prices 

counteracts faster growth of other consumer 

goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

rise similarly to the baseline. In the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages and import 

prices all rise more rapidly compared to the 

baseline. 

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

 200

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight
54

 0.8

 1.0

 1.2

 1.4

 1.6

 1.8

 2.0

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Index Value (2017 = 1)

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight
55

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2018-2038 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 1.7 and 3.3 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a quicker pace, averaging 2.5 percent per 

year (up 2.3 percent domestically and 3.4

percent internationally). This scenario is 

marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices which make 

the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the 

forecast period in 2038, system passengers 

in the optimistic case are 12.3 percent above 

the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 158 million 

greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened consumer confidence 

combined with a contraction in the commercial real estate market, leading to higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and 

spending. In this scenario, enplanements 

grow an average of 1.6 percent per year (domestic up 1.4 percent and international up 

3.2 percent). In the pessimistic case, system 

passengers in 2038 are 6.4 percent below 

the baseline case, totaling 1.2 billion, or 82

million fewer than in the baseline.

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
56

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2018-2038), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 3.2 

percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 2.9 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and

3.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.1 

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.6 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.1 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles 

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 2.3 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 1.9 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 3.2 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a 

faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.8 percent annually system-wide (2.5 

and 3.5 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
57

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.0 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 1.5 percent annually and international up 3.1 percent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three 

forecast scenarios. System load factor rises 

from 83.7 percent in 2018 to 84.8 (optimistic), 

84.7 (pessimistic), and 84.7 (baseline) percent in 2038, respectively.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 84.7 percent to 86.6 

percent in all three scenarios, optimistic, pessimistic and baseline. 

The international load factor is forecast to 

hold steady near 81.1 throughout the period

in the optimistic scenario and rise slightly to 

81.2 percent in the pessimistic and baseline 

scenarios. This reflects in part the relative 

growth in demand and capacity in the three 

(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
58

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.9 percent annually, going 

from 13.48 cents in 2018 to 19.82 cents in

2038. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.64 cents in 2018

to 20.34 cents in 2038. International yield 

rises from 13.06 cents in 2018 to 18.79 cents 

in 2038.

System yield rises in the optimistic case at 

the same rate as in the baseline, up 1.9 percent annually to 19.71 cents by 2038. Domestic yield increases to 20.14 cents while 

international yield increases to 18.78 cents. 

The modest growth in yield in both cases is 

due to advancements in technology, gains in 

productivity, and relatively favorable fuel 

prices. 

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 2.5 percent annually, reaching

22.08 cents by 2038 (23.79 cents domestically and 18.80 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the 

baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in 

order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital. 
59

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2017-2038

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2017E 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2017-18 2018-23 2018-28 2018-33 2018-38

Economic AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 36,308 36,885 38,929 41,802 44,493 47,036 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%Expenditure per Capita Baseline 36,294 36,990 39,769 42,622 46,020 49,684 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%(2009 $) Optimistic 36,292 37,058 41,713 45,529 49,723 54,553 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 48.5 53.8 86.7 117.0 147.3 182.2 10.9% 10.0% 8.1% 6.9% 6.3%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 48.1 51.5 75.1 92.5 106.3 118.1 6.9% 7.8% 6.0% 5.0% 4.2%

Optimistic 48.1 46.6 64.3 80.4 85.8 91.6 -3.2% 6.6% 5.6% 4.2% 3.4%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.44 2.48 2.80 3.21 3.83 4.60 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.44 2.48 2.79 3.16 3.57 4.03 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4%

Optimistic 2.44 2.49 2.84 3.22 3.61 4.05 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.5 -6.5% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4%

(%) Baseline 4.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 -12.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.7%

Optimistic 4.5 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 -12.4% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Source: IHS Global Insight
60

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2017-2038

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2017E 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2017-18 2018-23 2018-28 2018-33 2018-38

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,143.7 1,189.5 1,301.7 1,453.0 1,612.9 1,775.9 4.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%

(BIL) Baseline 1,143.7 1,196.6 1,339.6 1,489.0 1,673.9 1,883.9 4.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%

Optimistic 1,143.7 1,200.9 1,413.1 1,604.5 1,826.1 2,086.6 5.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 954.6 995.3 1,096.1 1,227.5 1,364.8 1,503.6 4.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

(BIL) Baseline 954.6 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,258.2 1,416.8 1,596.0 4.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4%

Optimistic 954.6 1,004.9 1,191.0 1,356.9 1,547.0 1,769.6 5.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%

Enplanements Pessimistic 840.4 873.9 931.5 1,020.1 1,112.7 1,201.8 4.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%(MIL) Baseline 840.4 879.9 963.5 1,049.5 1,159.4 1,283.7 4.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

Optimistic 840.4 883.6 1,025.5 1,143.6 1,280.4 1,441.6 5.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,411.7 7,646.3 8,097.8 8,839.6 9,626.1 10,395.7 3.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%(MIL) Baseline 7,411.7 7,695.8 8,355.1 9,076.0 10,009.1 11,062.7 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%

Optimistic 7,411.7 7,725.5 8,852.6 9,832.5 10,981.7 12,330.8 4.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,010.2 9,207.5 9,402.0 9,962.4 10,533.6 11,033.6 2.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%

(000s) Baseline 9,010.2 9,266.7 9,712.3 10,214.9 10,932.6 11,740.0 2.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%

Optimistic 9,010.2 9,284.7 10,325.0 11,130.1 12,060.4 13,167.6 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.42 13.48 15.09 16.91 19.32 22.08 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%(cents) Baseline 13.42 13.48 14.98 16.52 18.15 19.82 0.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

Optimistic 13.42 13.52 15.10 16.71 18.15 19.71 0.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
61

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2017-2038

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2017E 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2017-18 2018-23 2018-28 2018-33 2018-38

Domestic Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 809.0 842.2 890.1 971.6 1,058.7 1,140.5 4.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%

(BIL) Baseline 809.0 848.6 924.2 1,002.8 1,108.1 1,228.1 4.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

Optimistic 809.0 852.5 990.2 1,102.9 1,237.4 1,398.3 5.4% 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 683.3 713.8 762.5 837.0 915.1 987.8 4.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

(BIL) Baseline 683.3 719.2 791.7 863.9 957.8 1,063.7 5.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

Optimistic 683.3 722.4 848.2 950.1 1,069.5 1,211.0 5.7% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 743.5 772.2 813.1 880.7 950.2 1,012.1 3.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%(MIL) Baseline 743.5 778.1 844.3 909.1 994.6 1,089.9 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7%

Optimistic 743.5 781.7 904.6 999.8 1110.7 1,240.9 5.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,867.0 6,043.9 6,223.1 6,662.4 7,134.7 7,556.2 3.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%(MIL) Baseline 5,867.0 6,090.4 6,463.7 6,878.8 7,470.1 8,140.1 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%

Optimistic 5,867.0 6,118.2 6,927.8 7,569.1 8,346.6 9,273.8 4.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,328.6 8,494.9 8,590.1 9,023.5 9,454.4 9,788.1 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

(000s) Baseline 8,328.6 8,553.1 8,893.8 9,268.9 9,838.3 10,468.2 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%

Optimistic 8,328.6 8,570.6 9,492.9 10,159.9 10,932.6 11,850.2 2.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.63 13.64 15.44 17.49 20.36 23.79 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%(cents) Baseline 13.63 13.64 15.28 16.92 18.60 20.34 0.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

Optimistic 13.63 13.70 15.43 17.16 18.58 20.14 0.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9%
62

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2017-2038

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2017E 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2017-18 2018-23 2018-28 2018-33 2018-38

International Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 334.7 347.3 411.6 481.4 554.2 635.3 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%

(BIL) Baseline 334.7 348.0 415.4 486.2 565.8 655.7 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 334.7 348.5 423.0 501.7 588.7 688.3 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 271.3 281.5 333.6 390.4 449.7 515.8 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%

(BIL) Baseline 271.3 282.1 336.7 394.3 459.0 532.3 4.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 271.3 282.5 342.8 406.7 477.5 558.6 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

Enplanements Pessimistic 96.9 101.7 118.4 139.4 162.5 189.6 4.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%(MIL) Baseline 96.9 101.8 119.2 140.4 164.9 193.7 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Optimistic 96.9 101.9 120.9 143.8 169.7 200.6 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,544.8 1,602.4 1,874.7 2,177.2 2,491.3 2,839.4 3.7% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9%(MIL) Baseline 1,544.8 1,605.4 1,891.4 2,197.2 2,539.0 2,922.6 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%

Optimistic 1,544.8 1,607.3 1,924.9 2,263.4 2,635.1 3,057.1 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 681.6 712.6 811.9 938.9 1,079.2 1,245.5 4.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

(000s) Baseline 681.6 713.6 818.6 946.0 1,094.3 1,271.8 4.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Optimistic 681.6 714.2 832.1 970.2 1,127.8 1,317.4 4.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 12.89 13.06 14.28 15.67 17.20 18.80 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%(cents) Baseline 12.89 13.06 14.27 15.66 17.20 18.79 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%

Optimistic 12.89 13.06 14.26 15.66 17.19 18.78 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
63

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of 

uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment 

and reliance on industry knowledge and the 

forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. 

The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no 

exception. Given the volatile nature of the 

U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that 

each year’s forecast would contain a certain 

degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA 

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be 

able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the 

variance from historical results for a primary 

forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2017 forecast period. Although many of the forecasts 

prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline industry was 

going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast 

methodology remained consistent during this 

time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might 

lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current 

forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute 

percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP. 

Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of 

years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” 

column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.3 percent for ASM 

forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For 

the period under examination, preparation of 

the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2017 

occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2016. 9

 

 

9 It should be noted that the first forecasted year 

for each respective fiscal year is that very same 

year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 

2012. 
64

 

Presenting forecast variances from actual 

data in such a manner simplifies a review of 

longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to increase as the forecast 

year is moves away from the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of 

changes in the relative variances by time 

horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, 

are similar to the variances of the key traffic 

measures, Passenger Enplanements and 

RPMs. This suggests that a substantial 

amount of the forecast variance for the traffic 

variables is attributable to the forecast error 

in the exogenous variables. Second, all the 

metrics examined have increasing variances 

as the forecast time horizon lengthens. 

Third, the variance in the IFR aircraft handled 

relative to ASM variance is stable for the 2 to 

4 year out horizon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year forecast horizon carriers are

able to accommodate changes in capacity by 

means other than adjusting operations. 

Many carriers have been systematically reducing the number of smaller regional jets in 

their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 

seat aircraft. This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. It 

is worth noting that the forecast variance in 

these two metrics is relatively consistent

even as the time horizon increases suggesting that over the long run ASM growth is a 

good indicator of operations growth.
65

Appendix C: Forecast Tables
66

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2017 FISCAL YEAR 2018 FISCAL YEAR 2019

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2009 $) 36,059 36,178 36,407 36,530 36,727 36,902 37,082 37,246 37,404 37,562 37,713 37,865Year over year change 2.3% 1.3% 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars per barrel) 46.52 49.96 47.66 48.43 54.10 52.85 50.09 48.90 48.35 48.44 50.69 49.65Year over year change 38.4% 33.0% -17.2% 6.7% 55.7% -8.9% -19.3% -9.1% -4.5% 0.8% 19.8% -7.9%Consumer Price Index(1982-84 equals 100) 242.2 244.1 243.9 245.2 247.3 248.2 248.5 249.5 250.6 251.7 253.3 254.6Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 3.0% 3.1% -0.3% 2.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% 2.0%

Source: IHS Global Insight
67

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2009 $) (2009 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2010 14,685 32,186 2.17 74.612015 16,390 34,842 2.37 56.692016 16,640 35,565 2.39 39.122017E 16,987 36,294 2.44 48.14

Forecast2018 17,433 36,990 2.48 51.482023 19,344 39,769 2.79 75.122028 21,188 42,617 3.16 92.532033 23,379 46,014 3.57 106.282038 25,840 49,678 4.03 118.15Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% -6.1%

2017-18 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 6.9%

2018-28 2.0% 1.4% 2.4% 6.0%2018-38 2.0% 1.5% 2.4% 4.2%

Source: IHS Global Insight
68

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA / 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2010 1,614 25,097 5,204 19,056 65,9352015 1,803 27,347 5,790 23,925 75,5372016 1,828 27,900 5,715 24,978 77,341

2017E 1,882 28,601 5,788 26,165 79,737

Forecast2018 1,928 29,309 5,897 27,380 82,2752023 2,141 32,756 6,824 34,071 95,4662028 2,358 36,351 7,942 41,756 109,9542033 2,588 40,114 9,230 49,665 125,3822038 2,845 44,143 10,729 58,186 142,187

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 4.6% 2.8%

2017-18 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 4.6% 3.2%

2018-28 2.0% 2.2% 3.0% 4.3% 2.9%

2018-38 2.0% 2.1% 3.0% 3.8% 2.8%

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
69

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(NAFTA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 17,636 12,634 2,441 5,701 6,0822015 19,700 13,136 2,705 5,998 8,8852016 20,005 13,370 2,758 6,054 9,4832017E 20,467 13,702 2,806 6,162 10,132

Forecast

2018 21,002 14,019 2,840 6,239 10,798

2023 23,291 15,166 3,099 6,517 14,5092028 25,593 16,241 3,404 6,838 18,7812033 28,317 17,324 3,731 7,117 22,9172038 31,384 18,438 4,084 7,369 27,170

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.1% 1.2% 2.0% 1.1% 7.6%

2017-18 2.6% 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 6.6%

2018-28 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 5.7%

2018-38 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% 0.8% 4.7%

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
70

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 635 77 712 555 231 7862015 696 90 787 629 261 8902016 726 93 820 663 265 9282017E 743 97 840 683 271 955

Forecast2018 778 102 880 719 282 1,001

2023 844 119 964 792 337 1,1282028 909 140 1,050 864 394 1,2582033 995 165 1,159 958 459 1,4172038 1,090 194 1,284 1,064 532 1,596

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.3% 3.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.8%2017-18 4.7% 5.0% 4.7% 5.2% 4.0% 4.9%2018-28 1.6% 3.3% 1.8% 1.9% 3.4% 2.3%2018-38 1.7% 3.3% 1.9% 2.0% 3.2% 2.4%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
71

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.82015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 890 83.42016 783 663 84.7 329 265 80.6 1,112 928 83.52017E 809 683 84.5 335 271 81.0 1,144 955 83.5

Forecast2018 849 719 84.7 348 282 81.1 1,197 1,001 83.72023 924 792 85.7 415 337 81.1 1,340 1,128 84.22028 1,003 864 86.2 486 394 81.1 1,489 1,258 84.52033 1,108 958 86.4 566 459 81.1 1,674 1,417 84.62038 1,228 1,064 86.6 656 532 81.2 1,884 1,596 84.7

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8%2017-18 4.9% 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9%2018-28 1.7% 1.9% 3.4% 3.4% 2.2% 2.3%2018-38 1.9% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
72

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 2312015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 261

2016 24 55 14 93 105 87 73 2652017E 25 58 14 97 106 90 75 271

Forecast2018 26 62 14 102 109 96 77 2822023 30 73 16 119 133 115 89 3372028 34 88 18 140 151 142 101 3942033 38 106 20 165 171 173 115 4592038 43 128 23 194 192 210 130 532

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 0.2% 5.5% 1.1% 3.3% -0.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.3%2017-18 3.0% 6.9% 0.8% 5.0% 2.5% 6.2% 3.4% 4.0%2018-28 2.9% 3.6% 2.5% 3.3% 3.3% 4.0% 2.7% 3.4%2018-38 2.6% 3.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.9% 4.0% 2.6% 3.2%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
73

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 158

2015 70 75 36 27 2082016 75 79 39 28 2202017E 79 82 41 29 232

Forecast2018 84 87 43 30 244

2023 99 99 53 36 2882028 117 119 64 43 3442033 137 145 76 50 4092038 159 178 89 60 486

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 5.1% 6.4% 6.2% 4.2% 5.6%2017-18 5.9% 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 5.2%2018-28 3.4% 3.2% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5%2018-38 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5%Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received fro Transport Canada.
74

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONA

L (Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONA

L (Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.22015 131.5 214.8 149.0 902.7 2,892.6 1,131.02016 134.8 214.8 151.5 913.2 2,833.7 1,132.22017E 137.9 216.7 154.3 919.1 2,798.7 1,135.9

Forecast2018 139.3 216.8 155.5 924.3 2,770.6 1,137.92023 143.0 219.6 160.3 937.7 2,824.6 1,171.12028 145.8 221.3 164.1 950.3 2,808.0 1,198.92033 148.3 222.8 167.2 963.0 2,784.4 1,222.02038 150.9 224.4 170.3 975.9 2,747.2 1,243.3

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
75

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 7102015 543 87 630 556 259 8152016 575 90 665 590 262 8522017E 595 93 689 612 269 881

Forecast2018 627 98 725 646 280 9262023 682 115 797 711 334 1,045

2028 734 136 871 776 391 1,1672033 803 160 964 859 456 1,3152038 880 189 1,069 954 528 1,482

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% 3.1%2017-18 5.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6% 4.0% 5.1%2018-28 1.6% 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 3.4% 2.3%2018-38 1.7% 3.3% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 2.4%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
76

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.52015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.7

2016 692 590 85.3 325 262 80.7 1,017 852 83.82017E 718 612 85.2 331 269 81.1 1,049 881 83.9

Forecast2018 756 646 85.5 345 280 81.1 1,100 926 84.12023 823 711 86.4 412 334 81.1 1,235 1,045 84.62028 893 776 86.9 482 391 81.2 1,375 1,167 84.92033 986 859 87.2 561 456 81.2 1,547 1,315 85.02038 1,091 954 87.4 651 528 81.2 1,742 1,482 85.1

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% 2.9% 3.1%2017-18 5.3% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 4.9% 5.1%2018-28 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 2.3% 2.3%2018-38 1.9% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 2.3% 2.4%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
77

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.22016 24.4 51.5 14.0 89.92017E 24.8 54.7 13.9 93.5

Forecast2018 25.6 58.7 14.1 98.32023 30.5 69.0 16.0 115.42028 34.2 84.2 18.0 136.42033 38.2 101.9 20.4 160.4

2038 42.7 123.2 22.9 188.9

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 0.2% 5.7% 1.1% 3.3%2017-18 3.0% 7.2% 0.8% 5.2%2018-28 2.9% 3.7% 2.5% 3.3%2018-38 2.6% 3.8% 2.5% 3.3%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
78

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.22015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.82016 134 105 78.0 104 85 81.4 87 73 83.9 325 262 80.72017E 134 106 79.5 107 88 82.3 91 75 82.2 331 269 81.1

Forecast2018 137 109 79.5 113 93 82.3 94 77 82.2 345 280 81.12023 167 133 79.5 137 112 82.3 108 89 82.2 412 334 81.12028 190 151 79.5 169 139 82.3 123 101 82.2 482 391 81.22033 215 171 79.5 207 170 82.3 140 115 82.2 561 456 81.22038 242 192 79.5 251 207 82.3 158 130 82.2 651 528 81.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 0.3% -0.3% 4.6% 5.1% 3.7% 3.4% 2.5% 2.3%2017-18 2.5% 2.5% 6.4% 6.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 4.0%2018-28 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 2.7% 2.7% 3.4% 3.4%2018-38 2.9% 2.9% 4.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.6% 3.2% 3.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
79

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.2

2015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.82016 159.9 241.7 174.1 266.6 219.8 175.12017E 162.3 243.4 176.4 267.5 221.8 177.3

Forecast2018 162.9 243.9 176.9 268.2 221.8 177.72023 165.9 246.4 179.4 272.0 224.2 181.62028 168.5 248.9 181.9 275.7 225.5 184.82033 170.6 251.4 184.4 279.5 226.8 187.52038 172.7 253.9 186.9 283.2 228.1 189.9

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
80

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,2962015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,2922016 1,027 4,291 1,650 5,176 2,917 1,2832017E 1,028 4,278 1,602 5,373 2,875 1,279

Forecast2018 1,031 4,256 1,589 5,507 2,844 1,2762023 1,044 4,351 1,629 5,566 2,893 1,3112028 1,057 4,425 1,650 5,610 2,869 1,3412033 1,070 4,474 1,668 5,641 2,840 1,3652038 1,083 4,497 1,676 5,658 2,798 1,386

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
81

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 14.15 12.84 14.40 12.69 14.232015 14.79 15.23 14.16 14.59 14.59 15.032016 13.96 14.24 12.88 13.14 13.62 13.902017E 13.89 13.89 12.93 12.93 13.60 13.60

Forecast2018 13.90 13.64 13.10 12.86 13.66 13.412023 15.56 13.58 14.31 12.49 15.16 13.232028 17.23 13.30 15.71 12.12 16.72 12.902033 18.95 12.94 17.25 11.77 18.36 12.532038 20.73 12.55 18.84 11.41 20.05 12.14

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 1.4% -0.3% 0.1% -1.5% 1.0% -0.6%2017-18 0.0% -1.8% 1.3% -0.6% 0.4% -1.4%2018-28 2.2% -0.3% 1.8% -0.6% 2.0% -0.4%2018-38 2.0% -0.4% 1.8% -0.6% 1.9% -0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
82

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 14.28 13.33 14.95 12.50 14.02 12.84 14.40

2015 14.64 15.08 14.38 14.81 13.20 13.59 14.16 14.592016 13.83 14.11 12.72 12.98 11.69 11.94 12.88 13.142017E 13.58 13.58 13.50 13.50 11.36 11.36 12.93 12.93

Forecast2018 13.76 13.51 13.65 13.40 11.51 11.31 13.10 12.862023 15.10 13.17 14.74 12.86 12.60 10.99 14.31 12.492028 16.65 12.85 16.01 12.36 13.89 10.72 15.71 12.122033 18.35 12.53 17.42 11.89 15.34 10.47 17.25 11.772038 20.18 12.22 18.82 11.39 16.90 10.23 18.84 11.41

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 0.9% -0.7% 0.2% -1.4% -1.4% -3.0% 0.1% -1.5%2017-18 1.3% -0.5% 1.1% -0.7% 1.4% -0.5% 1.3% -0.6%2018-28 1.9% -0.5% 1.6% -0.8% 1.9% -0.5% 1.8% -0.6%2018-38 1.9% -0.5% 1.6% -0.8% 1.9% -0.5% 1.8% -0.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
83

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2017 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 219.16 240.87 220.12 241.93 219.49 241.232015 207.29 209.21 211.77 213.73 208.96 210.902016 146.17 146.17 147.01 147.01 146.47 146.472017E 162.31 162.31 160.79 160.79 161.46 161.46

Forecast2018 174.76 171.58 173.12 169.97 173.84 170.682023 253.68 221.35 251.31 219.27 252.36 220.192028 314.56 242.77 311.62 240.50 312.92 241.502033 362.34 247.42 358.95 245.10 360.44 246.122038 402.42 243.70 398.65 241.42 400.31 242.43

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -4.2% -5.5% -4.4% -5.7% -4.3% -5.6%2017-18 7.7% 5.7% 7.7% 5.7% 7.7% 5.7%2018-28 6.1% 3.5% 6.1% 3.5% 6.1% 3.5%2018-38 4.3% 1.8% 4.3% 1.8% 4.3% 1.8%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
84

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions) 

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS 

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,243 16,733 27,976 1,580 6,332 7,912 12,823 23,065 35,8882015 11,636 16,008 27,643 1,453 6,704 8,157 13,089 22,712 35,8012016 11,851 15,687 27,538 1,469 6,476 7,944 13,320 22,163 35,4832017E 13,031 17,569 30,600 1,605 6,967 8,572 14,636 24,536 39,172

Forecast

2018 14,069 19,265 33,334 1,719 7,527 9,247 15,788 26,792 42,5802023 15,728 25,837 41,565 1,848 9,361 11,209 17,576 35,198 52,7742028 16,810 32,841 49,652 1,897 11,003 12,900 18,707 43,844 62,5512033 18,798 41,437 60,235 2,034 12,797 14,831 20,832 54,233 75,0652038 20,829 51,902 72,731 2,177 14,721 16,898 23,006 66,623 89,629

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.9% 1.3%2017-18 8.0% 9.7% 8.9% 7.1% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 9.2% 8.7%2018-28 1.8% 5.5% 4.1% 1.0% 3.9% 3.4% 1.7% 5.0% 3.9%2018-38 2.0% 5.1% 4.0% 1.2% 3.4% 3.1% 1.9% 4.7% 3.8%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
85

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical2010 6,865 1,991 8,348 5,860 23,0652015 6,669 1,639 9,021 5,383 22,7122016 6,601 1,566 8,761 5,253 22,1812017E 7,061 1,689 9,939 5,848 24,536

Forecast2018 7,475 1,817 11,097 6,404 26,7922023 9,203 2,030 14,706 9,259 35,1982028 10,849 2,084 18,399 12,513 43,8442033 12,676 2,178 23,096 16,283 54,2332038 14,771 2,285 28,729 20,837 66,623

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 0.4% -2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.9%

2017-18 5.9% 7.6% 11.7% 9.5% 9.2%2018-28 3.8% 1.4% 5.2% 6.9% 5.0%2018-38 3.5% 1.2% 4.9% 6.1% 4.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
86

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

Historical2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,7222015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,9432016 3,457 2 0 3,459 490 0 27 517 3,976 97 4,0732017E 3,539 1 3,540 517 0 0 517 4,057 98 4,155

Forecast2018 3,616 1 0 3,617 526 0 0 526 4,143 98 4,2412023 3,710 1 0 3,711 601 0 0 601 4,312 80 4,3922028 3,844 0 0 3,844 619 0 0 619 4,463 79 4,5422033 4,012 0 0 4,012 718 0 0 718 4,730 78 4,8082038 4,190 0 0 4,190 833 0 0 833 5,023 78 5,101

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 1.8% -25.7% N/A 1.8% 1.4% N/A -100.0% -0.1% 1.5% 4.7% 1.6%

2017-18 2.2% 0.0% N/A 2.2% 1.7% N/A N/A 1.7% 2.1% 0.0% 2.1%2018-28 0.6% N/A N/A 0.6% 1.6% N/A N/A 1.6% 0.7% -2.1% 0.7%2018-38 0.7% N/A N/A 0.7% 2.3% N/A N/A 2.3% 1.0% -1.1% 0.9%

LARGE 

JETS

REGIONAL 

JETS

TOTAL 

JETS
87

 

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 789

2016 235 19 2 256 328 149 77 554 8102017E 243 16 2 261 360 149 85 594 855

Forecast2018 246 15 2 263 365 148 82 595 858

2023 254 11 2 267 415 109 97 621 8882028 265 2 0 267 488 76 113 677 944

2033 270 0 0 270 621 37 129 787 1,0572038 272 0 0 272 759 11 136 906 1,178

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 6.8% -23.5% N/A -1.4% 4.5% -4.1% -1.9% 0.8% 0.1%2017-18 1.2% -6.3% N/A 0.8% 1.4% -0.7% -3.5% 0.2% 0.4%

2018-28 0.7% N/A N/A 0.2% 2.9% -6.4% 3.3% 1.3% 1.0%

2018-38 0.5% N/A N/A 0.2% 3.7% -12.2% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6%
88

 

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,9212015 12,682 6,481 19,163 1,383 20,545 2 196 198 20,7432016 13,337 6,363 19,699 1,437 21,136 2 206 208 21,3452017E 13,642 6,526 20,168 1,535 21,703 2 209 211 21,914

Forecast2018 14,169 6,717 20,886 1,615 22,502 2 207 209 22,7112023 14,681 7,629 22,311 1,832 24,143 2 194 196 24,3392028 15,157 8,496 23,653 1,967 25,620 2 188 190 25,8102033 15,935 9,407 25,342 2,105 27,447 2 185 187 27,6342038 16,804 10,374 27,178 2,247 29,424 2 184 186 29,610

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 1.4%2017-18 3.9% 2.9% 3.6% 5.2% 3.7% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 3.6%2018-28 0.7% 2.4% 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 1.3%2018-38 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 1.3%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

AIR 

CARRIER

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED
89

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2017 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 56.1 53.2 56.0 464 503 465 15.74 17.652015 59.9 62.6 60.0 475 695 480 10.94 11.272016 61.5 68.8 61.8 481 721 487 11.32 11.562017E 63.0 66.1 63.1 482 717 487 11.29 11.29

Forecast2018 64.0 66.4 64.0 484 720 489 11.30 11.092023 67.2 67.9 67.2 494 735 500 12.64 11.032028 69.7 69.4 69.7 504 750 510 13.98 10.792033 72.3 70.9 72.3 514 765 520 15.37 10.492038 75.1 72.4 75.0 525 780 530 16.80 10.17

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 5.2% 0.7% -4.6% -6.2%2017-18 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -1.8%2018-28 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.2% -0.3%2018-38 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% -0.4%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.
90

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 162 3 164 75,030 1,347 76,3772015 153 3 156 72,754 2,116 74,8702016 152 4 155 72,964 2,556 75,5202017E 148 3 152 71,502 2,463 73,965

Forecast2018 151 4 155 73,236 2,522 75,7592023 163 4 166 80,390 2,769 83,1592028 175 4 179 88,216 3,038 91,2542033 191 4 196 98,395 3,389 101,7842038 210 5 215 109,962 3,787 113,750

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -1.2% 3.6% -1.1% -0.7% 9.0% -0.5%

2017-18 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

2018-28 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%2018-38 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
91

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 98,461 75,030 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,318 76,377 76.12015 90,681 72,754 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 93,500 74,870 80.12016 91,158 72,964 80.0 3,506 2,556 72.9 94,665 75,520 79.82017E 90,853 71,502 78.7 3,374 2,463 73.0 94,226 73,965 78.5

Forecast2018 92,763 73,236 79.0 3,445 2,522 73.2 96,207 75,759 78.72023 100,829 80,390 79.7 3,744 2,769 73.9 104,573 83,159 79.52028 110,127 88,216 80.1 4,089 3,038 74.3 114,216 91,254 79.92033 122,514 98,395 80.3 4,549 3,389 74.5 127,063 101,784 80.12038 136,688 109,962 80.4 5,076 3,787 74.6 141,763 113,750 80.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -1.1% -0.7% 8.9% 9.0% 0.1% -0.9% -0.5%2017-18 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 2.4%2018-28 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.1% 1.7% 1.9%2018-38 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 2.1%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
92

 

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,6132015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,1442016 365 55 0 59 0 59 40 1,637 1,677 519 1,637 2,156

2017E 321 65 10 26 0 26 65 1,644 1,709 487 1,644 2,131

Forecast2018 276 63 10 25 0 25 55 1,651 1,706 429 1,651 2,0802023 220 50 8 20 0 20 53 1,716 1,769 351 1,716 2,067

2028 158 36 6 14 0 14 52 1,663 1,715 266 1,663 1,929

2033 101 23 4 9 0 9 50 1,756 1,806 187 1,756 1,9432038 39 9 1 4 0 4 48 1,910 1,958 101 1,910 2,011

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -4.4% -4.8% -26.0% -21.7% N/A -23.7% -5.8% -0.7% -0.9% -7.8% -0.9% -2.9%

2017-18 -14.0% -3.1% N/A -3.8% N/A -3.8% -15.4% 0.4% -0.2% -11.9% 0.4% -2.4%2018-28 -5.4% -5.4% N/A -5.6% N/A -5.6% -0.6% 0.1% 0.1% -4.7% 0.1% -0.8%2018-38 -9.3% -9.3% N/A -8.8% N/A -8.8% -0.7% 0.7% 0.7% -7.0% 0.7% -0.2%

AS OF JANUARY 1

LESS THAN 

9 SEATS

10 TO 19 

SEATS

20 TO 30 

SEATS
93

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** OTHER TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,3672015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,3722016 129,652 12,986 142,638 9,779 13,751 23,530 3,344 7,233 10,577 27,585 2,478 4,986 211,794 145,982 30,7632017E 130,330 12,935 143,265 9,430 14,075 23,505 3,405 7,400 10,805 27,865 2,585 5,025 213,050 146,670 30,905

Forecast2018 130,500 12,895 143,395 9,195 14,390 23,585 3,465 7,565 11,030 28,140 2,705 5,050 213,905 146,860 31,1502023 125,330 12,720 138,050 9,025 16,220 25,245 3,750 8,375 12,125 29,595 3,330 5,045 213,390 141,800 33,6202028 118,740 12,465 131,205 9,870 18,120 27,990 4,035 9,200 13,235 30,980 3,995 5,060 212,465 135,240 37,1902033 112,620 12,170 124,790 11,225 20,085 31,310 4,345 10,105 14,450 32,105 4,705 5,060 212,420 129,135 41,4152038 107,800 11,845 119,645 12,855 22,195 35,050 4,675 11,110 15,785 33,105 5,440 5,065 214,090 124,320 46,160

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -1.0% -2.9% -1.2% 0.1% 2.9% 1.7% -0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.7% -12.4% -1.7% -0.7% -1.1% 1.8%2017-18 0.1% -0.3% 0.1% -2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%2018-28 -0.9% -0.3% -0.9% 0.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.8% 1.8%2018-38 -1.0% -0.4% -0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% 2.0%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2016, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TOTAL 

GENERAL 

AVIATION 

FLEET

LIGHT 

SPORT 

AIRCRAFT**
94

 

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** OTHER TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,8712016 11,865 1,683 13,548 2,708 3,847 6,554 780 2,348 3,128 1,224 187 193 24,834 14,328 8,9022017E 11,878 1,666 13,543 2,674 4,274 6,948 810 2,427 3,237 1,248 197 195 25,369 14,353 9,376

Forecast2018 11,765 1,647 13,412 2,642 4,604 7,246 834 2,510 3,344 1,273 208 196 25,679 14,246 9,7562023 10,608 1,578 12,187 2,621 5,616 8,237 933 2,884 3,817 1,415 269 196 26,120 13,119 11,1222028 10,021 1,546 11,567 2,863 6,331 9,194 1,009 3,239 4,248 1,556 336 196 27,097 12,576 12,4332033 9,625 1,545 11,170 3,259 7,067 10,326 1,088 3,593 4,681 1,677 409 197 28,460 12,257 13,9192038 9,419 1,556 10,976 3,742 7,849 11,591 1,172 3,980 5,152 1,799 490 198 30,206 12,148 15,571

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -0.3% -1.2% -0.5% 2.0% 3.4% 2.9% 0.3% -1.0% -0.7% 0.3% -6.3% 1.1% 0.3% -0.4% 1.7%2017-18 -0.9% -1.1% -1.0% -1.2% 7.7% 4.3% 3.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% 0.5% 1.2% -0.7% 4.1%2018-28 -1.6% -0.6% -1.5% 0.8% 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.5% -1.2% 2.5%2018-38 -1.1% -0.3% -1.0% 1.8% 2.7% 2.4% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 4.4% 0.1% 0.8% -0.8% 2.4%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2016, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TOTAL 

GENERAL 

AVIATION 

FLEET

LIGHT 

SPORT 

AIRCRAFT**
95

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

AS OF DEC. 31

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT GLIDER ONLY

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,0012015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,3292016 175 5,889 162,313 96,081 157,894 15,518 17,991 455,861 302,5722017 153 6,097 162,455 98,161 159,825 15,355 18,139 460,185 306,652

Forecast2018 150 6,385 162,450 96,650 161,300 15,250 18,050 460,235 307,0002023 125 7,915 157,450 92,000 165,900 15,650 17,650 456,690 308,6002028 100 9,520 149,600 90,150 171,000 17,100 17,350 454,820 313,0002033 85 11,050 142,400 89,400 177,100 18,950 17,150 456,135 318,6002038 65 12,340 136,650 89,150 183,900 21,050 17,100 460,255 325,100

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 -4.6% 7.5% -3.1% -3.3% 1.7% 0.0% -2.3% -1.4% -0.5%2017-18 -2.0% 4.7% 0.0% -1.5% 0.9% -0.7% -0.5% 0.0% 0.1%2018-28 -4.0% 4.1% -0.8% -0.7% 0.6% 1.2% -0.4% -0.1% 0.2%2018-38 -4.1% 3.3% -0.9% -0.4% 0.7% 1.6% -0.3% 0.0% 0.3%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

*

Starting in April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot 

 numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. As the implementation is very new and there is  not sufficient data to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

ROTORCRAFT 

ONLY

TOTAL LESS 

STUDENT 

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT 

RATED 

PILOTS1
96

 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,578

2016 137 42 207 1,117 10 113 17 1 206 1,437 1,643

2017E 137 42 203 1,211 10 121 20 1 209 1,535 1,744

Forecast

2018 135 41 200 1,291 10 124 20 1 207 1,615 1,823

2023 121 39 194 1,498 12 140 21 1 194 1,832 2,026

2028 114 38 207 1,606 12 153 22 2 188 1,967 2,155

2033 108 37 232 1,705 13 167 24 2 185 2,105 2,290

2038 104 38 260 1,801 14 186 25 3 184 2,247 2,430

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 0.4% -3.5% 1.2% 1.1% -0.8% -0.5% -1.2% N/A -0.7% 1.0% 0.7%2017-18 -1.0% -1.5% -1.7% 6.6% 2.6% 2.9% -1.3% 2.4% -1.0% 5.2% 4.5%2018-28 -1.7% -0.9% 0.4% 2.2% 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 4.7% -1.0% 2.0% 1.7%2018-38 -1.3% -0.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 4.3% -0.6% 1.7% 1.4%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

EXPERIMENTAL*

* / OTHER

LIGHT 

SPORT**
97

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 2442015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,578 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,722 264 2522016 14,417 7,580 13,904 11,632 25,536 1,317 1,145 2,462 49,995 264 2522017E 15,047 7,179 13,838 11,732 25,570 1,326 1,200 2,526 50,322 264 253

Forecast2018 15,677 7,037 13,868 11,939 25,807 1,326 1,200 2,526 51,047 264 2532023 18,617 5,442 14,040 12,136 26,176 1,326 1,200 2,526 52,761 264 2532028 20,418 5,672 14,217 12,338 26,555 1,326 1,200 2,526 55,171 264 2532033 22,336 5,971 14,399 12,547 26,947 1,326 1,200 2,526 57,780 264 2532038 24,362 6,288 14,587 12,764 27,351 1,326 1,200 2,526 60,527 264 253

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.5% -3.8% -1.0% 0.0% -0.6% 0.2% -1.1% -0.4% -0.3%2017-18 4.2% -2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%2018-28 2.7% -2.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%2018-38 2.2% -0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER TOTAL
98

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2010 13,174 9,511 13,864 2,438 38,9872015 13,948 7,861 13,076 2,286 37,1712016 14,640 7,672 13,090 2,311 37,7132017E 15,276 7,281 13,276 2,254 38,085

Forecast2018 15,902 7,176 13,317 2,254 38,6492023 18,819 5,351 13,537 2,254 39,9612028 20,626 5,583 13,841 2,254 42,3032033 22,550 5,895 14,166 2,254 44,8652038 24,582 6,226 14,505 2,254 47,567

Avg Annual Growth

2010-17 2.1% -3.7% -0.6% -1.1% -0.3%2017-18 4.1% -1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 1.5%2018-28 2.6% -2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9%2018-38 2.2% -0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
99

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical2010 22,342 8,624 6,550 2,982 40,498

2015 25,270 7,847 7,007 1,795 41,9182016 26,318 7,787 7,301 1,826 43,2312017E 26,074 8,591 7,428 1,765 43,857

Forecast2018 27,896 7,525 7,513 1,765 44,699

2023 31,120 6,640 7,737 1,765 47,2612028 34,780 6,332 8,039 1,765 50,9162033 38,437 6,400 8,411 1,765 55,0132038 42,174 6,614 8,822 1,765 59,374

Avg Annual Growth2010-17 2.2% -0.1% 1.8% -7.2% 1.1%2017-18 7.0% -12.4% 1.1% 0.0% 1.9%2018-28 2.2% -1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 1.3%2018-38 2.1% -0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity