Shenandoah GroupContribution AssessmentDraft May 29, 2007......HerculesGlade, MOMountain Class I AreasArea of InfluenceGroupings1. GRSM (5)2. MACA3. SHEN (4)4. SIPS5. SWAN6. BRIG7. MING (4)ObjectivesPollutant Contributions: 2000-2004 20% Bestand Worst DaysNew IMPROVE equationNatural Background CalculationsGlidepath and Progress in 2018Emissions SensitivitiesAreas of InfluenceBack Trajectory, Residence TimeSource Sector EmissionsList of Contributing Sources (states to supply)Average Extinction for 20% Worst DaysNew IMPROVE Algorithm (nia)2000-2004050100150200250300 SWAN1 ROMA1 OKEF1 EVER1 CHAS1 SAMA1 DOSO1 SHEN1 JARI1 LIGO1 SHRO1 GRSM1 COHU1 SIPS1 MACA1 BRIG1 BRET1 MING1 HEGL1 UPBU1 CACR1VISTAS coastalVISTAS inlandnon-VISTAS

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilECPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighAverage Extinction for 20% Best DaysNew IMPROVE Algorithm (nia)2000-20040102030405060 SWAN1 ROMA1 OKEF1 EVER1 CHAS1 SAMA1 DOSO1 SHEN1 JARI1 LIGO1 SHRO1 GRSM1 COHU1 SIPS1 MACA1 BRIG1 BRET1 MING1 HEGL1 UPBU1 CACR1VISTAS coastalVISTAS inlandnon-VISTAS

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilECPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighShenandoah, VA2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Worst Days050100150200250300350400450500 5/10 5/13 6/10 6/14 6/21 6/24 7/1 7/5 7/19 7/22 8/5 8/16 8/23 8/26 9/12 10/18 10/21 10/24 10/27 11/8 5/1 5/4 5/10 6/9 6/12 7/18 8/2 8/5 8/8 8/11 8/14 8/17 8/26 8/29 9/4 9/7 9/13 9/19 9/22 10/22 10/31 11/18 2/28 5/26 5/29 6/4 6/10 6/13 6/19 6/25 7/1 7/4 7/16 7/19 7/22 7/31 8/3 8/12 8/21 8/24 8/27 9/11 9/14 9/17 9/29 10/2 1/30 3/19 5/27 5/30 6/5 6/26 6/29 7/5 7/20 7/26 7/29 8/1 8/7 8/13 8/16 8/19 8/22 8/25 8/28 9/3 9/15 9/27 10/9 4/9 5/9 6/8 6/26 7/2 7/11 7/14 7/17 7/20 7/23 7/29 8/4 8/7 8/16 8/19 8/22 8/25 8/28 8/31 9/12 9/24 9/27 9/3020002001200220032004

Extinction (Mm -1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4Rayleigh01020304050607080 1/8 1/12 1/15 1/29 2/2 3/4 3/18 3/22 4/15 5/24 5/31 7/26 10/30 11/2 11/26 11/29 12/14 12/26 12/29 1/10 1/19 1/22 1/31 2/12 2/15 2/27 3/5 3/14 3/20 5/7 5/19 5/22 7/30 9/25 10/10 10/25 10/28 11/6 11/9 11/24 1/5 1/14 1/23 1/26 2/7 2/19 3/3 3/9 3/18 6/7 7/25 8/9 9/2 9/26 10/11 11/16 12/1 12/4 12/7 12/10 12/13 12/22 12/25 1/3 2/17 2/23 3/16 4/9 4/18 4/24 5/6 5/18 6/17 9/12 10/3 10/27 10/30 11/26 11/29 12/2 12/5 12/8 12/11 12/14 12/29 2/3 2/6 3/1 3/16 3/31 4/6 4/12 6/2 6/5 7/26 9/6 9/15 9/21 10/21 11/5 11/14 11/23 11/26 12/2 12/11 12/20 12/2320002001200220032004

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighShenandoah, VA2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Best Days0501001502002503003504002001200220032004

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighJames River Face, VA2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Worst Days010203040506070802001200220032004

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighJames River Face, VA2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Best Days050100150200250300350400450500 1/26 3/8 5/6 5/13 5/20 6/10 6/14 6/24 7/1 7/5 7/22 8/16 8/23 8/26 9/12 10/15 10/18 10/21 10/24 10/27 3/23 5/4 5/10 6/12 6/15 6/21 6/27 7/9 7/18 7/24 8/2 8/8 8/23 8/26 8/29 9/4 9/7 9/13 9/19 9/22 10/22 11/15 11/18 5/2 5/8 5/17 5/26 5/29 6/1 6/4 6/10 6/13 6/19 6/22 6/25 7/1 7/10 7/25 8/12 8/15 9/11 9/14 9/17 9/20 9/29 10/2 3/19 4/30 5/27 6/5 6/23 6/26 6/29 7/5 7/20 7/26 8/7 8/10 8/13 8/16 8/19 8/22 8/25 8/28 8/31 9/9 9/15 9/21 9/27 5/9 5/12 5/24 6/8 6/14 7/2 7/5 7/11 7/14 7/17 7/20 7/29 8/1 8/4 8/10 8/16 8/19 8/25 8/28 9/3 9/12 9/15 9/24 9/27 9/3020002001200220032004

Extinction (Mm

-1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighDolly Sods, WV2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Worst DaysDolly Sods and Otter Creek Wilderness Areas share an IMPROVE monitor01020304050607080 1/8 1/29 2/2 3/4 3/18 3/22 4/5 4/15 4/22 9/18 10/9 11/2 11/14 11/26 12/14 12/17 12/23 12/26 12/29 1/7 1/19 1/31 2/3 2/15 3/14 3/17 5/25 5/31 7/30 9/16 9/25 10/10 10/16 10/19 10/25 11/9 11/21 11/24 12/3 12/15 12/24 12/27 1/5 1/14 1/23 1/26 2/19 3/9 3/30 4/14 4/29 6/7 10/11 10/20 10/26 10/29 11/16 11/22 12/4 12/7 12/13 12/22 12/25 12/31 1/3 2/14 2/17 3/16 4/9 5/6 5/18 6/17 10/15 10/24 10/27 10/30 11/5 11/14 11/23 11/26 11/29 12/5 12/8 12/11 12/14 12/23 12/29 2/3 2/6 2/27 3/1 3/4 3/31 4/6 4/12 6/20 7/26 9/6 9/18 9/21 10/6 10/12 10/15 11/5 11/8 11/14 11/26 11/29 12/2 12/11 12/2320002001200220032004

Extinction (Mm -1 )Sea SaltCMSoilLACPOMAmm NO3Amm SO4RayleighDolly Sods, WV2000-2004 Reconstructed ExtinctionNew IMPROVE Algorithm20% Worst DaysConclusions: ContributionsOn 20% Worst DaysSO4 dominates light extinctionOrganic carbon generally second largestcontribution; fire indicated on few daysNO3 contribution comparatively smallSO4 also dominates 20% Best DaysConclude: Focus on reducing SO2emissionsNew IMPROVE EquationEndorsed by IMPROVE Steering Committee asaccounting for latest scienceDefines two terms each for SO4, NO3, and OC withhigher extinction efficiencies (bext) associated withhigh mass and lower bextassociated with low massIncreases mass multiplier for organic carbon from1.4 to 1.8Adds term for fine mass sea saltAdds term for absorption due to NO2 (only if NO2measurements available)Calculates site specific Rayleigh scatteringNew IMPROVE EquationLight scattering measured bynephelometer and calculated using newIMPEOVE equation show good correlationOriginal equation under estimated scatteringon highest days and over estimatedscattering on lowest daysNew equation generally indicates higherextinction on 20% worst days and lowerextinction on 20% best daysAerosol Scattering vs. Nephelometer ScatteringUsing New or Old IMPROVE Algorithm and Daily f(RH)Shenandoah, VA 1996 - 2004All Daysy = 1.04x + 6.27R2= 0.790501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 30024-hr Nephelometer bsp(Mm-1)

24-hr Aerosol b s p (M m

-1 )All Daysy = 0.80x + 13.76R2= 0.810501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 30024-hr Nephelometer bsp(Mm-1)

24-hr Aerosol b s p (Mm

-1 )New IMPROVEOld IMPROVEAll Daysy = 1.09x + 10.32R2= 0.850501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 30024-hr Nephelometer bsp(Mm-1)

24-hr A erosol b sp (Mm

-1 )All Daysy = 0.83x + 16.60R2= 0.860501001502002503000 50 100 150 200 250 30024-hr Nephelometer bsp(Mm-1)

24-hr Aerosol b sp (Mm

-1 )Aerosol Scattering vs. Nephelometer ScatteringUsing New or Old IMPROVE Algorithm and Daily f(RH)James River Face, VA 2000 - 2004New IMPROVEOld IMPROVENatural Background VisibilityTombach reviewed for VISTAS the original assumptions by Trojoniset al. 1990 used to define natural background levels of visibilityimpairing pollutants and recent scientific developments. He alsomade recommendations for changes in assumptions. (Tombachand Brewer, 2005)Hand and Malm (2005) reviewed assumptions for calculating lightextinction in the original IMPROVE equation and maderecommendations for revisions.The IMPROVE Steering Committee reviewed and approved newequation for calculating light extinction (2005).Ames (2006) reviewed methods toproject natural backgroundlevels for 20% worst visibility days using the new IMPROVEequation and IMPROVE approved revised methodsRevised glide paths calculated for reaching natural backgroundconditions at Class I areas by 2064.Natural Conditions01020304050 Gre a t S mo k y M t n s N P S henand o ah NP Cape Romain W Okef e n o kee W Everglades NP B r eto n W *Left = Default Natural Conditions; Center = New IMPROVE Algorithm;Right = W20 with New IMPROVE Algorithm

bext (Mm-1)Sea SaltCMSoilECPOMAm NitrAm SulfRayleighShenandoah Glide Path to Natural Conditions (2004-2064)(5-yr Rolling Average for 20% Haziest Days - New IMPROVE equation and NB II )05101520253035 1986-1990 1988-1992 1990-1994 1992-1996 1994-1998 1996-2000 1998-2002 2000-2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064

Deciviews (dv)Default Glide Path SHENNew Glide Path SHENDefault 5-yr Rolling Avg SHENNew 5-yr Rolling Avg SHENAnnual g90 - OldAnnual g90 - NewBase old Base new Default NB NB2Shenandoah NP 27.9 29.3 11.38 dv 11.4 dvJames River Face Glide Path to Natural Conditions (2004-2064)(5-yr Rolling Average for 20% Haziest Days - New IMPROVE equation and NB II )05101520253035 1986-1990 1988-1992 1990-1994 1992-1996 1994-1998 1996-2000 1998-2002 2000-2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064

Deciviews (dv)Default Glide Path JARINew Glide Path JARIDefault 5-yr Rolling Avg JARINew 5-yr Rolling Avg JARIAnnual g90 - OldAnnual g90 - NewBase old Base new Default NB NB2James River Face WA 27.729.1 11.31 dv 11.2dvDolly Sods Glide Path to Natural Conditions (2004-2064)(5-yr Rolling Average for 20% Haziest Days - New IMPROVE equation and NB II )05101520253035 1986-1990 1988-1992 1990-1994 1992-1996 1994-1998 1996-2000 1998-2002 2000-2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 2062 2064

Deciviews (dv)Default Glide Path DOSONew Glide Path DOSODefault 5-yr Rolling Avg DOSONew 5-yr Rolling Avg DOSOAnnual g90 - OldAnnual g90 - NewBase old Base new Default NB NB2Dolly Sods WA 27.629.0 11.38 dv 10.4 dvVISTAS 2018 Base G2 VisibilityProjections(Delivered Mar 2007)CMAQ Air Quality Model 2018 RunAccounts for Clean Air Interstate Rule(utility controls)Does not include controls for BART(Best Available Retrofit Technology)VISTAS states inventories as of Feb 2007Inventories for neighboring states effectiveAug 2006Model Performance 20%Haziest Days in 2002Observations (left) vsModeled Base G2a (right)Shenandoah, VA05010015020025030035040045050059 146 149 155 161 164 170 176 182 185 197 200 203 212 215 224 233 236 239 254 257 260 272 275 _ AvgJulian Day in Worst 20% group

bEXT (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4Modeled Responses to 2018 Base G2a Emissions on 20% Haziest DaysShenandoah, VA-300-250-200-150-100-5005059 146 149 155 161 164 170 176 182 185 197 200 203 212 215 224 233 236 239 254 257 260 272 275 AvgJulian Day

Delta Bext (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4Shenandoah - 20% Worst Days29.3128.1225.1422.1619.1816.2013.2311.4421.98051015202530352000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064Year

Haziness Index (Deciviews)Glide PathNatural Condition (Worst Days)ObservationMethod 1 PredictionNew IMPROVE equationUniform Rate of Progress Glide Path (Base G2a projections)Uniform rate of progress = 4.2 dv by 20182000-20042018Visibility at Shenandoah on 20% Haziest DaysVisibility at Shenandoah – Natural ConditionsModel Performance 20%Haziest Days in 2002Observations (left) vsModeled Base G2a (right)James River Face, VA050100150200250300350137 146 152 155 161 182 185 191 197 200 203 212 215 218 224 233 236 239 254 257 263 266 272 275 _ AvgJulian Day in Worst 20% group

bEXT (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4Modeled Responses to 2018 Base G2a Emissions on 20% Haziest DaysJames River Face, VA-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-20020137 146 152 155 161 182 185 191 197 200 203 212 215 218 224 233 236 239 254 257 263 266 272 275 AvgJulian Day

Delta Bext (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4New IMPROVE equationUniform Rate of Progress Glide Path (Base G2a projections)James River Face - 20% Worst Days29.1227.9224.9421.9518.9615.9812.9911.2022.40051015202530352000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064Year

Haziness Index (Deciviews)Glide PathNatural Condition (Worst Days)ObservationMethod 1 PredictionUniform rate of progress = 4.2 dv by 2018Model Performance 20%Haziest Days in 2002Observations (left) vsModeled Base G2a (right)Dolly Sods, WV050100150200250300350400450500122 128 137 146 149 152 155 161 164 170 173 176 182 191 206 224 227 254 257 260 263 272 275 _ _ AvgJulian Day in Worst 20% group

bEXT (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4Modeled Responses to 2018 Base G2a Emissions on 20% Haziest DaysDolly Sods, WV-300-250-200-150-100-50050122 128 137 146 149 152 155 161 164 170 173 176 182 191 206 224 227 254 257 260 263 272 275AvgJulian Day

Delta Bext (1/Mm)bCMbSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4New IMPROVE equationUniform Rate of Progress Glide Path (Base G2a projections)Uniform rate of progress = 4.3 dv by 2018Dolly Sods - 20% Data Days29.0427.8124.7121.6118.5115.4112.3110.4521.71051015202530352000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064Year

Haziness Index (Deciviews)Glide PathNatural Condition (Worst Days)ObservationMethod 1 PredictionRate of progress for Otter Creek is same as rate of progress for Dolly SodsVISTAS Source Sector EmissionsSensitivities(Delivered Jan 2006)Evaluated responses to emissionsreductions for specific pollutants andsource sectorsGreatest visibility improvement fromfurther reducing SO2 emissions fromutilities and industriesShenandoah, VA (20% Worst Days)-16.00-14.00-12.00-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.00 SO2_EGU SO2_nonEGU NOx_Ground NOx_Point N H 3 VOCs PC_Ground PC_Point PC_Fires

Δ B ext (Mm

-1 )Bio.Antro.BCsMRPOM-VUCENVISTASWVVATNSCNCMSKYGAFLALJames River Face, VA (20% Worst Days)-18.00-16.00-14.00-12.00-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.00 SO2_EGU SO2_nonEGU NOx_Ground NOx_Point N H 3 VOCs PC_Ground PC_Point PC_Fires

Δ B ext (Mm

-1 )Bio.Antro.BCsMRPOM-VUCENVISTASWVVATNSCNCMSKYGAFLALDolly Sods, WV (20% Worst Days)-16.00-14.00-12.00-10.00-8.00-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.00 SO2_EGU SO2_nonEGU NOx_Ground NOx_Point N H 3 VOCs PC_Ground PC_Point PC_Fires

Δ B ext (Mm

-1 )Bio.Antro.BCsMRPOM-VUCENVISTASWVVATNSCNCMSKYGAFLALEmissions sensitivities for Otter Creek are the same as for Dolly SodsConclusion: Source SectorEmissions SensitivitiesReductions in SO2 emissions from EGU and nonEGU show largest improvements in visibilityWV largest contributorSO2 from KY, VA, MRPO, MANE-VU, and BoundaryConditions(outside VISTAS 12 km domain)alsocontributeSmall benefits from reducing NOx, anthropogenicVOC or primary carbonVISTAS Geographic Areas ofInfluenceHysplit model used to generate backtrajectories for Class I areas(Air ResourceSpecialists)Back trajectories for individual 20% worst daysin 2002Helpful for evaluating model performance in 2002Residence time plots for 20% worst days in2000-2004 indicate probable contributionHelpful to understand geographic area most likelyto influence Class I areasSO2 Area of Influence defined from residenceweighted by SO4 extinction and considering SO2emissionsResidence Time for 20% Worst Days in 2000-2004Shenandoah, VASO2 Area of Influence for Shenandoah, VAGreen circles indicate 100-km and200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area ofInfluence with Residence Time >10%Orange line perimeter indicate Areaof Influence with Residence Time >5%.2018 SO2 Emissions weighted by Residence TimeShenandoah, VAGreen circles indicate 100-km and 200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >10%.Orange line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >5%.Residence Time for 20% Worst Days in 2000-2004James River Face, VASO2 Area of Influence for James River Face, VAGreen circles indicate 100-km and200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area ofInfluence with Residence Time >10%Orange line perimeter indicate Areaof Influence with Residence Time >5%.2018 SO2 Emissions weighted by Residence TimeJames River Face, VAGreen circles indicate 100-km and 200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >10%.Orange line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >5%.Residence Time for 20% Worst Days in 2000-2004Dolly Sods, WVSO2 Area of Influence for Dolly Sods, WVGreen circles indicate 100-km and200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area ofInfluence with Residence Time >10%Orange line perimeter indicate Areaof Influence with Residence Time >5%.2018 SO2 Emissions weighted by Residence TimeDolly Sods, WVGreen circles indicate 100-km and 200-km radii from Class I area.Red line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >10%.Orange line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time >5%.Reasonable Progress AnalysisStates consider 4 Statutory Factors todetermine what controls are reasonableCosts of ComplianceTime to ComplyRemaining Useful LifeEnergy and Other Environmental andImpactsAnnual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceShenandoah, VATierVOC NOX COSO2PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.1% 26% 1%53%14% 25% 1%Fuel Comb. Industrial1% 17% 2%28%5% 6% 0%Fuel Comb. Other7% 9% 4%6%7% 14% 1%Chemical & Allied ProductMfg2% 1% 1%2%1% 1% 1%Metals Processing1% 2% 4%4%3% 6% 0%Petroleum & RelatedIndustries1% 0% 0%2%0% 0% 0%Other Industrial Processes3% 6% 0%5%9% 10% 1%Solvent Utilization39% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%Storage & Transport6% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%Waste Disposal & Recycling4% 2% 3% 0% 4% 9% 0%Highway Vehicles19% 20% 45% 0% 2% 2% 10%Off-highway16% 18% 37% 1% 3% 7% 0%Miscellaneous0% 0% 1% 0% 50% 18% 85%VISTAS Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Annual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceShenandoah, VATierSO2Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Coal51%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Oil1%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Gas0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Other0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Internal Combustion1%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Coal22%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Oil3%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Gas2%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Other1%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Internal Combustion0%Fuel Comb. OtherCommercial/Institutional Coal2%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Oil1%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Gas0%Fuel Comb. Other-Misc. Fuel Comb. (ExceptResidential)0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Wood0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Other 2%Annual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceJames River Face, VATierVOC NOX COSO2PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.1% 26% 1%53%15% 27% 1%Fuel Comb. Industrial1% 17% 2%28%4% 6% 0%Fuel Comb. Other7% 8% 4%6%7% 14% 1%Chemical & Allied ProductMfg2% 1% 1%2%1% 1% 1%Metals Processing1% 2% 4%4%3% 5% 0%Petroleum & RelatedIndustries0% 0% 0%2%0% 0% 0%Other Industrial Processes4% 5% 0%4%9% 11% 1%Solvent Utilization39% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%Storage & Transport7% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%Waste Disposal & Recycling4% 2% 4% 0% 5% 9% 0%Highway Vehicles19% 21% 47% 0% 2% 2% 11%Off-highway14% 17% 36% 1% 3% 5% 0%Miscellaneous1% 0% 2% 0% 50% 18% 85%VISTAS Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Annual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceJames River Face, VATierSO2Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Coal51%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Oil1%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Gas0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Other0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Internal Combustion1%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Coal23%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Oil3%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Gas2%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Other1%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Internal Combustion0%Fuel Comb. OtherCommercial/Institutional Coal2%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Oil1%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Gas0%Fuel Comb. Other-Misc. Fuel Comb. (ExceptResidential)0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Wood0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Other 2%Annual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceDolly Sods, WVTierVOC NOX COSO2PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.1% 25% 1%53%15% 26% 1%Fuel Comb. Industrial1% 17% 1%27%4% 5% 0%Fuel Comb. Other6% 8% 4%6%7% 14% 1%Chemical & Allied ProductMfg2% 0% 1%2%1% 1% 1%Metals Processing1% 2% 5%4%3% 6% 0%Petroleum & RelatedIndustries0% 0% 0%2%0% 0% 0%Other Industrial Processes4% 6% 0%5%9% 11% 1%Solvent Utilization41% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%Storage & Transport6% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%Waste Disposal & Recycling4% 2% 3% 0% 4% 9% 0%Highway Vehicles19% 21% 47% 0% 2% 2% 13%Off-highway14% 17% 36% 0% 2% 5% 0%Miscellaneous1% 0% 2% 0% 52% 20% 81%VISTAS Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Annual 2018 BaseG2 Emissions(%) Within Area of InfluenceDolly Sods, WVTierSO2Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Coal52%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Oil1%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Gas0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Other0%Fuel Comb. Elec. Util.-Internal Combustion0%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Coal23%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Oil3%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Gas1%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Other0%Fuel Comb. Industrial-Internal Combustion0%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Coal3%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Oil1%Fuel Comb. Other-Commercial/Institutional Gas0%Fuel Comb. Other-Misc. Fuel Comb. (ExceptResidential)0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Wood0%Fuel Comb. Other-Residential Other 2%4 Statutory FactorsFor Utilities and Industrial BoilersSwitch to fuel with lower sulfur contentCoal or OilPost-combustion controlsFlue Gas DesulfurizationModification trigger PSD review?4 Statutory Factors(continued)Costs of ComplianceFuel switch for coal or oilMay have to blend low S fuel to maintain boilerperformancePrice difference for lower S fuelCost of boiler modifications for lower S fuel<$1000/ton4 Statutory Factors(continued)Costs of ComplianceFlue Gas DesulfurizationConstruction costs: absorber tower, sorbent,waste handling facilityOperational and maintenance costsCosts per ton vary with boiler size, type, facilityUtility costs range $1,000 - $5,000/tonIndustrial costs range $3,000 - $20,000+/ton4 Statutory Factors(continued)Time for Compliance2+ years for fuel switching (fuel contracts)3+ years for post-combustion control(dependent on market and availability oflabor and materials)Remaining Useful LifeFacility specific4 Statutory Factors(continued)Energy and Non-Air EnvironmentalImpactsLower sulfur fuel may affect boileroperationsFGD slightly reduces energy productionBurn more coal per unit energy producedIncrease disposal of sludge, wastewaterIncrease carbon emissionsCO2 is released as byproduct from CaSO4 formation