FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Table of Contents 

Forecast Highlights (2023–2043) .................................................................................................. 1 

Review of 2022 ............................................................................................................................. 5 

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................... 7 

Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... 9 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts.......................................................................................................... 10 

Economic Environment ........................................................................................................... 11 

U.S. Airlines.............................................................................................................................13 

Domestic Market.................................................................................................................. 13 

International Market............................................................................................................. 18 

System................................................................................................................................. 23 

Cargo................................................................................................................................... 24 

General Aviation ...................................................................................................................... 26 

FAA Operations ....................................................................................................................... 32 

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet................................................................................................35 

Commercial Space .................................................................................................................. 37 

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA.....................................................................38 

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast ................................................................40 

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy ..................................................................42 

Unmanned Aircraft System and Advance Air Mobility .............................................................44 

New Entrants: Analysis and Forecasts ................................................................................44 

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration.....................................................45 

The Recreational UAS Safety Test (TRUST) ......................................................................56 

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs. 

Effective/Active Fleet ........................................................................................................... 57 

2022 Survey and Preliminary Results ..................................................................................69 

Remote Pilot Forecast .........................................................................................................78

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS .....................................................................................81 

Large UAS ........................................................................................................................... 82 

UAS Imports: Preliminary Analysis of Data .........................................................................86 

Advance Air Mobility ............................................................................................................ 94 

Forecast Uncertainties .......................................................................................................... 114 

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios............................................................................119 

Scenario Assumptions.......................................................................................................119 

Alternative Forecasts............................................................................................................. 123 

Enplanements.................................................................................................................... 123 

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................124 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Available Seat Miles ..........................................................................................................124 

Load Factor........................................................................................................................ 125 

Yield................................................................................................................................... 126 

Appendix B: Forecast Tables ................................................................................................... 131 
 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Forecast Highlights (2023–2043) 

Since its deregulation in 1978 and the great 

recession of 2007-09, the U.S. commercial 

air carrier industry experienced a series of 

boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was 

associated with these cycles was thought by 

many to be a structural feature of an industry 

that was capital intensive but cash poor. 

However, the great recession of 2007-09 

marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Since the 

end of the recession in 2009 through 2019, 

U.S. airlines revamped their business models to minimize losses by lowering operating 

costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and 

grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. 

To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with three major mergers in five 

years. The results of these efforts were impressive: 2019 marked the eleventh consecutive year of profitability for the U.S. airline 

industry. 

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 

2020, however, brought a rapid and cataclysmic end to those boom years. Airline activity 

and profitability tumbled almost overnight 

and without the financial and competitive 

strength built up during the boom, airlines 

would have faced even greater challenges. 

As it was, they were able to slash capacity 

and costs, and then, relying on their balance 

sheets, credit ratings and value inherent in 

their brands, to raise capital through borrowing and restructuring fleets allowing them to 

withstand the period of losses. Although several small regional carriers ceased operations in 2020, no mainline carriers did. Cargo 

activity was one of few bright spots as it 

surged, boosted by consumers purchasing 

goods to enhance time spent at home as necessitated by the pandemic, and by surface 

transportation disruptions caused by worker 

shortages due to COVID-19 illnesses. 

Since 2020, conditions and the outlook have 

brightened considerably. As vaccines were 

introduced and local and international travel 

restrictions were lifted, leisure travel rebounded. Initially concentrated in outdoor 

recreation spots, whether beach or mountain, the recovery in leisure demand spread 

first to domestic destinations in 2021 and 

then expanded to many traditional international vacation destinations and by the summer of 2022, most carriers were reporting leisure demand was exceeding pre-pandemic 

levels. A rebound in business travel, which 

had been severely curtailed with the onset of 

the pandemic, lagged that of leisure demand. 

However by the end of 2022, U.S. airlines 

were reporting that business demand had recovered to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels. 

Higher fares accompanied the strong rebound in leisure demand leading to positive 

financial results. For all of CY 2022, the top 

nine U.S. passenger carriers posted operating profits of $7.8 billion and net profits of 

$1.8 billion. 

The business modifications necessitated by 

the downturn will shape the industry for years 

to come, long after the recovery is complete. 

Primarily, airlines will be smaller having retired aircraft and encouraged voluntary employee separations. Fleets, however, be1 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

come younger and more fuel-efficient as retirements targeted the oldest and the least 

efficient aircraft. Although U.S. airlines carry 

high levels of debt, it is unclear to what extent 

capital spending and investment will be restrained, as evidenced by United’s massive 

wide-body order for 787’s in December 2022. 

And even the unbundling of services took a 

small step backwards as carriers eliminated 

change fees for all but Basic Economy tickets. 

In the medium-term, airlines will be focused 

on trying to foretell the recovery in demand 

and position themselves to meet it. To date, 

that demand recovery has been extremely 

uneven across markets and population segments, driven by COVID-19 case counts, 

vaccinations, governmental restrictions and 

the degree of pent-up demand experienced 

by consumers and businesses. While leisure 

traffic has led the recovery, business travel is 

expected to build on the gains logged in 

2022. International activity in some regions 

has lagged domestic due in part to individual 

country policies on lifting travel restrictions 

and will continue to lag over the next few 

years. 

Long-term, the strengths and capabilities developed over during decade between the end 

of the great recession and the onset of 

COVID-19 will become evident again. There 

is confidence that U.S. airlines have finally 

transformed from a capital intensive, highly 

cyclical industry to an industry that can generate solid returns on capital and sustained 

profits. 

Fundamentally, over the long-term, aviation 

demand is driven by economic activity, and a 

growing U.S. and world economy provides 

the basis for aviation to grow. The 2023 FAA 

forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.7 percent per year. This average, 

however, includes robust growth in 2023, as 

activity returns to pre-pandemic levels. Following the recovery period, trend rates resume with average growth through the end 

of the forecast of 2.8 percent. Domestic passengers are forecast to be within 1 percent, 

on an annual basis, of 2019 levels in 2023. 

After averaging $55 per barrel over the five 

years ending in 2021, oil prices surged to $93 

per barrel with the Russian invasion of 

Ukraine in 2022. Prices are forecast to ease 

somewhat over the next two years before 

climbing slowly to reach $113 per barrel at 

the end of the forecast period. 

Just as U.S. economic activity drives domestic demand for air transport, foreign economic activity affects international travel demand. As global economies were recovering 

from the pandemic in 2022, the demand imbalances and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 

sent consumer prices soaring. Central banks 

moved to restrain inflation by raising interest 

rates and slowing demand which consequently curtailed GDP growth as well as price 

increases. In 2023, GDP is expected to slow 

further to the extent that the U.S. enters a 

mild recession while Europe sees a sharper 

downturn. Latin American growth remains 

solidly positive and China’s economy, which 

suffered from stringent COVID-19 policies in 

2022, rebounds in 2023 supporting the region. Global growth returns close to trend 

rates in 2024 although some individual countries take longer. 

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 3.2 percent a year between 2023 and 2043. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 3.0 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow faster at 3.7 percent a year, 

2 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

largely due to the steep declines in 2020 and 

2021 that brought RPM to just 31 percent of 

2019's level – about half that of domestic 

RPM. Thus, these figures are boosted by 

several years of high growth rates during the 

recovery after which the annual rates return 

to more moderate long-term trends. The 

strong growth rates propel system RPM, on 

an annual basis, to exceed 2019 levels in 

2024, with domestic RPM returning a year 

earlier while international RPM also recovering in 2024. System capacity as measured 

by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to 

grow somewhat slower than RPM during the 

recovery period as airlines seek to restore 

load factors but, subsequently, ASM grow in 

line with the increases in demand. 

After U.S. carriers posted an unexpected 

profit in CY 2022, the FAA expects U.S. carriers to remain profitable over the next few 

years as rising demand -- despite higher 

fares -- more than offsets higher costs for labor and fuel. As carriers return to levels of 

capacity consistent with their fixed costs, 

shed excess debt, and yields stabilize, consistent profitability should continue. Over the 

long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares 

growing more slowly than overall inflation, reflecting growing U.S. and global economies. 

The general aviation (GA) sector was less affected by the COVID-19 crisis than the airlines and recovered faster. Private aviation 

became an attractive substitute for wealthier 

individuals who could afford to pay during the 

heaviest times of the pandemic. Even though 

there are recent indicators that with airlines 

increasing frequency of their scheduled 

flights, some reversal in this trend is expected, many have continued to fly privately. 

At the lower end of the industry, new comers 

to private flying included student, private and 

commercial pilots, joining the existing GA pilot population. The long-term outlook for general aviation thus is promising, as growth at 

the higher-end offsets continuing retirements 

at the traditional low end, mostly piston-powered part of the sector. The active GA fleet is 

forecast to increase by 3.5 percent between 

2023 and 2043, after declining slightly in 

2022 from the year before. The turbine aircraft fleet, including rotorcraft, did not experience a decline between 2019 and 2021, and 

is estimated to have shown a small increase 

between 2021 and 2022. The total of piston 

fleet (single and multi-engine pistons, lightsport aircraft, and piston rotorcraft) declined 

by 2.0 percent between 2019 and 2021 and 

is estimated to have fallen by an additional 

0.7 percent in 2022. While steady growth in 

both GDP and corporate profits results in 

continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft 

fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed 

wing piston aircraft will continue to shrink 

over the forecast period, just to be offset by 

the growing turbine fleet. Despite the minimal 

growth of the active GA fleet between 2021 

and 2043, the number of GA hours flown is 

projected to increase by 16.6 percent from 

2021 to 2043 (an average of 0.7 percent per 

year), as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline 

in fixed wing piston hours. 

With robust air travel demand growth between 2023 and 2025, we expect increased 

activity growth that has the potential to increase controller workload. The recovery in 

U.S. airline activity from the COVID downturn 

is the primary driver. The U.S. commercial 

aviation sector was hit by the pandemic 

much harder than the non-commercial sector. Operations at FAA and Contract Towers 

return to pre-COVID levels in 2023, led by 

strong growth in commercial operations. In 

3 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

particular, large and medium hubs will continue to see faster increases than small and 

non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature of their operations. Over the entire 

forecast period, operations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow 1.2 percent 

a year with commercial activity growing at 

approximately four times the rate of noncommercial (general aviation and military) 

activity. 

Commercial Space launch activity has been 

steadily growing over the past 5 years. 

FY2022 actuals were the highest in U.S. history at 74, accounting for 13% of the activity 

since 1989. 

FAA is forecasting launch and re-entry activity to increase from a low-high range of 61-94 

in FY2023 to a low-high range of 123-288 by 

FY2027. Much of this increase is attributable 

to the lineup of reusable vehicles and the expectation for increased human space exploration. 

Drones have been experiencing healthy 

growth in the United States and around the 

world over the past decade. The last few 

years have been no exception despite the 

profound impact of COVID-19 on the overall 

economy. The introduction of drones in the 

NAS has opened up numerous possibilities, 

especially from a commercial perspective. 

That introduction has also brought operational challenges including safe and secure 

integration of drones into the NAS. Despite 

these challenges, the drone sector holds 

enormous promise; potential uses range 

from individuals flying solely for recreational 

purposes to individual businesses carrying 

out focused missions to large companies delivering commercial packages and delivering 

medical supplies. Public service uses, such 

as conducting search and rescue support 

missions following natural disasters, are 

proving promising as well. The FAA forecasts that the recreational small drone fleet 

will likely (i.e., base scenario) attain its peak 

over the next 5 years, from the present 1.69 

million units now to approximately 1.82 million units by 2027 thus attaining cumulative 

annual growth rate of 1.6% during 2022-

2027. Based on registration data, the size of 

the commercial drone fleet (> 0.5 lbs up to 55 

lbs) came in around 727,000 aircraft by the 

end of 2022. As the present base (i.e., the 

cumulative total) increases, the FAA anticipates the growth rate of the sector will slow 

down over time, the FAA forecasts that the 

commercial drone fleet will likely (i.e., base 

scenario) be at around 955,000 by 2027. 

Another sector showing enormous promise 

is Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). Based on 

the research performed by numerous others, 

the FAA believes that AAM will likely enter 

into services (EIS) sometime around 2025-

2026. Starting from limited services to initial 

launch cities noted earlier, services will be 

experimental, slow and likely gain a gradual 

trajectory of growth until 2030. We expect 

that initial 5 years or so will be required to resolve many outstanding issues including establishing solid AAM business cases. Depending upon the sector’s resolving the outstanding issues, this will be followed by a 

moderate service trajectory during 2030-

2040. Beyond that period, we anticipate a 

sustainable, mature sector on a longer-term 

growth trajectory 

4 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Review of 2022 

Following two difficult years of coping with 

COVID-19 and its impacts, 2022 brought significant improvement and the beginning of 

the shift from a pandemic to an endemic 

phase. The pandemic’s consequences persisted, however, as the demand imbalances 

and supply chain disruptions continued to 

boost inflation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 

added to the pressure with higher oil and 

other commodity prices while depressing 

consumer confidence. As central banks 

raised interest rates to combat inflation, and 

fiscal support from the pandemic years 

waned, economic activity slowed. However, 

consumers also began normalizing spending 

with a shift out of goods and into services, 

including air transport. Although air cargo 

flattened out, passenger air travel surged, 

and operations rose for both the air carrier 

and general aviation segments. UAS activity 

grew solidly and commercial space launches 

surged in 2022, both of which had expanded 

in 2021. 

U.S. commercial passenger activity started 

the year well above the level in 2021 and 

generally saw upward progress throughout 

the year. TSA checkpoint throughput increased from about 15 percent below 2019’s 

level to about 5 percent below by the end of 

the year. The main source of strength 

throughout the year was from leisure travelers, with a surge in the summer that included 

a pick-up in the Atlantic region, adding it to 

the domestic and Latin destinations that 

were closing in on 2019 levels. In the business segment, activity grew somewhat although not to the same extent as in the leisure 

segment as many employees remained on 

work-from-home status and meetings, conferences and trainings were either conducted 

virtually or forgone. 

Airlines sought to respond to the sudden increase in demand and worked to match capacity with changes in timing, markets and 

segments. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), airline employment rose throughout the year with average 

increase of nearly 5,000 jobs per month. At 

year end, employment was 35,000 higher 

than in 2019. However, new hires needed 

time to ramp up and many carriers were restrained by training bottlenecks as well as 

productivity reductions due to the large number of junior staff. Further constraining their 

ability to boost capacity were aircraft delivery 

delays, as well as staffing shortages at airports and some ATC locations. 

In FY2022, system traffic as measured by 

revenue passenger miles (RPMs) grew 60.1 

percent from the previous year while system 

enplanements rose 48.9 percent. Domestic 

RPMs were 46.2 percent higher while enplanements were up 45.5 percent. After falling for two consecutive years, international 

RPMs more than doubled, surging by 132.3 

percent while enplanements rose by 84.0 

percent – the relative difference due to the 

pickup in long-haul Atlantic markets. Hampered by constraints, system ASM expanded 

by 34.0 percent with domestic ASM growing 

26.7 percent and international up 62.2 percent. The disparate growth rates pushed the 

system-wide load factor up 13.3 percentage 

points to 81.8 percent. 

System nominal yields rose sharply in 2022, 

up 30.8 percent after falling during each of 

the previous two years. Several factors contributed, including on the supply side, a spike 

5 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

in fuel and labor costs, as well as constrained 

production. On the demand side, consumers 

were eager to travel and, in aggregate, tolerated the fare increases. 

With the surge in activity during the year, financial results improved as well. Data for 

FY2022 shows that the reporting passenger 

carriers had a combined operating profit of 

$3.4 billion compared to an average profit 

over the five years ending in FY2019 of $22.1 

billion. As with operations, profitability improved markedly during the second half of 

the year that saw two consecutive quarterly 

profits, the first profits since the outbreak of 

the pandemic. Those two quarter, $4.7 billion each, brought the year into the black. 

The general aviation industry almost completely recovered from its decline in 2020 

with an increase of 17.0 percent in deliveries 

of U.S. manufactured aircraft between 2021 

and 2022 (10.3 above 2019 levels), with pistons up by 15.4 percent and turbines up by 

18.8 percent. Global billings increased by 

5.9 percent to $22.9 billion (still down by 2.8 

percent from 2019 levels – statistics for U.S. 

billings were not available as of the publication date of this report). 

Total operations in 2022 and FAA and contract towers increased by 10.2 percent compared to 2021 (down by 1.3 percent from 

2019). Air carrier activity increased by 24.0 

percent, while air taxi operations were up 

10.8 percent. General aviation activity increased by 5.2 percent (the only segment 

with activity levels higher than 2019) and military activity was down by 4.7 percent. Activity at large and medium hubs rose by 24.2 

percent and 14.9 percent, respectively, while 

small and non-hub airport activity rose by 5.6 

percent in 2022 compared to the prior year. 

6 
 .

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Glossary of Acronyms 

Acronym Term 

AAM Advanced Air Mobility 

ANG FAA Office of NextGen 

ARP FAA Office of Airports 

ASMs Available Seat Miles 

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation 

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization 

ATP Air Transport Pilot 

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International 

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight 

CAPS COA Application Processing System 

CBP Customs and Border Patrol 

CFR Code of Federal Regulations 

COAs Certification of Authorizations 

CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation 

CRS Commercial Resupply Services 

CY Calendar Year 

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency 

DHS Department of Homeland Security 

DoD Department of Defense 

DoE Department of Energy 

DoI Department of Interior 

eVTOL Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing 

FAA Federal Aviation Administration 

FY Fiscal Year 

GA General Aviation 

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association 

GC Grand Challenge 

GDP Gross Domestic Product 

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization 

IFR Instrument Flight Rules 

IMF International Monetary Fund 

ISS International Space Station 

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability 

LCC Low Cost Carriers 

LSA Light Sport Aircraft 

lUAS Large Unmanned Aircraft System(s) 

NAS National Airspace System 

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act 

NOTAM Notices to Airmen 

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking 

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure 

PDARS Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems 

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost 

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle 

RP Remote Pilot 

7 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization 

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles 

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles 

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s) 

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control 

TRB Transportation Research Board 

TSA Transportation Security Administration 

UAM Urban Air Mobility 

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s) 

UASFM UAS facility maps 

USD United States Dollar 

VFR Visual Flight Rules 

8 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Acknowledgements 

This document was prepared by the Forecast and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs. 

The following staff may be contacted for further information about their respective sections: 

Section Contact Name Phone Number 

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388 

Commercial Air Carriers Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388 

General Aviation H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 

FAA Workload Measures Neil T. Agarwal (202) 267-2938 

Commercial Fleet Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388 

Commercial Space Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641 

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

Gavin Ekins (202) 267-4735 

APO Websites 

 Forecasts and 

Statistical publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/ 

 APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov 

Email for APO staff First name.Last name@FAA.gov 

9 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2023-2043 

10 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Economic Environment 

In 2022, global real GDP expanded solidly as 

the economic recovery from the effects of the 

pandemic continued. After surging 6.1 percent in 2021, GDP rose by 3.1 percent in 

2022, a rate similar to that over the decade 

prior to 2019. Despite these two years of 

strong growth, the level of GDP is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic path for 

several more years. After providing considerable fiscal and monetary stimulus during 

the pandemic, countries have turned their attention to controlling deficits and reining in inflation, both of which contribute to moderating GDP growth in the coming years. 

In the U.S., real GDP growth slows from 2.1 

percent in 2022 to 0.7 percent in 2023 as 

COVID-19 relief measures wear off, consumer spending normalizes and higher interest rates slow activity. Compared to the 

U.S., real GDP growth in the European Union plus U.K. was somewhat stronger in 2022 

at 4.1 percent but slightly weaker at 0.3 percent in 2023. Aggressive deficit reduction efforts, high energy costs and interest rates all 

dampen growth in the near-term and combine with the area's lower trend rate. In Japan, border reopenings support exports, particularly to China, as well as inbound tourism 

that combine with expansionary fiscal policies to produce real GDP growth of 1.2 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Trend growth 

rates of under one percent return in the second half of the decade as the country’s persistent problems of weak consumer spending, and population and demographic trends 

continue. Although China's growth remained 

positive through the pandemic, its zeroCOVID policy resulted in real GDP growth of 

just 3.0 percent in 2022, very low for a country that averaged 7.7 percent in the decade 

ending in 2019. For the remainder of the 

2020’s, growth is expected to come in at 

about 5.0 percent weighed down by stalled 

economic and banking-sector reforms, and 

high rates of household savings. 

In large emerging markets, Brazil’s considerable fiscal stimulus was withdrawn in 2022, 

pulling growth down to 2.9 percent. Growth 

slows further to 1.7 percent in 2023 due to 

slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe that restrain exports, tourism and capital flows, as 

well as from high domestic inflation necessitating high interest rates. Russian growth 

has turned negative, however, due to Western sanctions. In 2022 it was estimated 

at -2.2 percent and -2.8 percent in 2023. 

Positive growth returns in 2024 but remains 

hampered by the E.U.’s shift to other fuel 

sources and the similar loss of markets for 

other exports, in addition to productivity 

losses due to the departure of Western companies and skilled professionals. India has 

seen strong support from the unwinding of 

pent-up domestic demand countered by 

slowing global growth that moderated exports, resulting in growth of 5.4 percent in 

2023. In the medium-term its growth will be 

driven by favorable demographics including 

strong consumer spending from growing 

middle-income households, increasing contributions from the service sectors, and undeveloped natural resources. 

11 
 

■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

World Economic Growth in 2022 

Annual Percent Change 

8.0 

6.0 

4.0 

2.0 

0.0 

-2.0 

-4.0 

India U.K. Eurozone World 

Source: IHS Markit 

IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow 

at 2.6 percent a year between 2023 and 

2043. Emerging markets, at 3.8 percent a 

year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Africa and Middle East, 

7.0 

4.1 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 

2.1 

1.1 

-2.2 

China Brazil U.S. Japan Russia 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.5 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be 

very slow at 0.8 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population. 

Asia and Middle East/N. Africa Lead Global Economic Growth 

(annual GDP percent growth 2023-2043) 

China 

Asia ex. China & Japan 

Latin America 

M.E. & N. Africa 

World 

Emerging Europe 

U.S. 

Eurozone 

Japan 0.8 

1.2 

1.8 

2.3 

2.6 

2.7 

2.8 

3.9 

4.1 

Source: IHS Markit, Jan 2023 World Forecast 

12 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Oil spiked to $93 per barrel in 2022 in the oil to increase due to growing global demand 

wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After and higher costs of extraction. IHS Markit 

receding slightly in 2023, prices remain stag- forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of 

nant for a few years before beginning to crude to rise to $113 per barrel at the end of 

climb as economic activity accelerates. Over the forecast horizon. 

the long-run, IHS Markit expects the price of 

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost 

$ Per Barrel of Oil 

$120 

$100 

$80 

$60 

$40 

$20 

$0 

Fiscal Year 

Source: IHS Markit 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 

U.S. Airlines 

Domestic Market 

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

Over the coming years, the commercial air 

carrier industry will be focused on managing 

through the aftereffects of the pandemic. Although demand has been returning to 2019 

levels, the progress has been unsteady and 

uneven across segments making it difficult to 

1 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

plan and manage capacity. Furthermore, 

carriers face numerous factors constraining 

their ability to add capacity back into networks – factors that will take years to resolve. 

As predictability returns and balance sheets 

strengthen, carriers will pay down debt burdens accumulated during the pandemic and 

transition to more traditional long-term business strategies. 

While demand showed more predictability in 

2022 than in the previous two years, its 

strength and characteristics were still not the 

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or fewer seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers. 

13 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

same as in the pre-pandemic environment 

and it may be years before it returns to that 

previous normal. Leisure traveler demand is 

expected to continue as the main driver while 

business trips remain well below prior levels 

and are growing only slowly. And although 

leisure travelers are demonstrating confidence by booking further out from departure, 

the day-of-week and seasonal patterns have 

been shifted by an increase in blended leisure and business trips. By geographic region, the altered balance between leisure 

and business has shifted demand towards 

medium-sized and sun-belt cities, and away 

from transcontinental routes and coastal 

destinations. Overall demand will return to 

2019’s level in 2023 but its characteristics will 

not be the same, complicating carrier’s ability 

to capture it. 

Air carriers’ ability to manage capacity is further complicated by constraints that arose 

during the pandemic and that will take years 

to unwind. Hiring and training bottlenecks 

have left carriers, regionals especially, short 

staffed for pilots as well as maintenance 

crews. And even where staffing levels are 

above where they were in 2019, such as for 

gate and ramp agents, the large proportion 

of new hires has lowered productivity. The 

effects of supply chain disruptions linger, and 

combined with similar staffing issues, are 

hampering manufacturers’ ability to deliver 

new aircraft creating years-long backlogs. 

Finally, under-staffing at a few ATC facilities 

is limiting the number of aircraft that can be 

handled in those places. These issues will all 

be slow to reverse and weigh on the forecast 

of capacity production for the next three to 

five years, or possibly longer. 

Higher airfares have already resulted from 

increased labor expenses necessary to attract and retain workers and this elevated 

spending is expected to be permanent. Beyond that, the industry-wide damping of capacity relative to demand has allowed carriers to pass through other fare increases that 

are helping to begin paying down debt incurred during the pandemic. Until debt returns to more typical levels, it will act as an 

additional restraint on investment and expansion. 

During the first years of the pandemic, regional carriers suffered very similar consequences of COVID-19 as did the mainline 

group. However, in 2022, regionals provided 

9.3 percent of domestic capacity, down from 

10.7 percent in 2019, a result of both the shift 

in demand and difficulty supplying capacity 

as flight crews moved up to higher paying 

mainline jobs. In terms of traffic, regionals 

saw similar declines, dropping to 8.9 percent 

of RPM in 2022 compared to 10.0 percent in 

2019. The deviations in 2022 are expected 

to be temporary as travel patterns and airline 

operations continue the slow recovery to 

more normal conditions. 

14 
■ ■ 

• 11111 -, 

• 11111 7 I I 

I I 7 I I I I I 

I I 7 II I I I I I I 

I I 

I 

I 

I II I I 

I I 

I I I 

I I I 

I I I 

I I I II I I I I I I 

I I I II I I I I I I 

I I I II I I I I I I 

■ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Revenue Per Mile (¢) Enplanements (millions) 

19.6 18.9 

18.0 

17.1 16.5 16.2 15.6 15.7 15.7 

14.9

14.1 14.1

13.5 13.6 13.7 

12.3 11.7 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group 

1,400 

1,200 

1,000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

2019 2020 2022 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 

258 

234 

200 

173 

152 151 156

126 

1,106 1,002

92 859 740 654 612 649 670 

368 

Fiscal Year 

Mainline Regional 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield 

20.0 

18.0 

16.0 

14.0 

12.0 

10.0 

8.0 

6.0 

4.0 

2.0 

0.0 

2019 2020 2022 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Mainline Regionals 

15 

17.1 
 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. And as 

mainline carriers cut service to smaller cities 

over the past three years, it was the regional 

partners that were most affected. Furthermore, mainline carriers successfully reduced 

costs by offering voluntary retirements to 

flight crews but as activity picked up they 

drew replacements from the ranks of the regionals, exacerbating their pre-pandemic pilot shortages. As regional carriers recover 

and activity returns to 2019 levels, service to 

smaller cities is expected to return. Regional 

pilot shortages, however, are likely to persist 

through next year due to the time required for 

training and recruitment. 

A trend for regionals that was largely unaffected by the pandemic is the longstanding 

increase in the number of seats per aircraft. 

This measure rose by more than 55 percent 

over the decade from 1997 to 2007 and although it slowed more recently to an increase 

of 17 percent in the ten years ending in 2019, 

that same pace generally continued in 2022. 

A consequence of this drive to replace 50 

seat regional jets with more fuel-efficient 70 

seat jets is that capital costs have increased. 

The move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future, however, since their unit 

costs are lower. 

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although, unlike 

that for the regionals, the trend had been accelerating. From 1997-2007, mainline seats 

per aircraft expanded just one-half of one 

percent but from 2009-2019, the measure 

grew 10 percent. In 2022, mainline seats per 

aircraft bumped up to 12 percent over the 

decade as carriers flew some of their idle 

long-haul international aircraft on domestic 

routes. 

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as 

boarding priority and internet access. After 

posting record net profits in 2015, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined subsequently 

on rising fuel and labor costs, and flat yields, 

but were supported by ancillary revenues. 

Even in 2020 when profits turned to staggering losses, this remained a meaningful 

source of revenue for carriers. 

On the other hand, revenue management 

systems that have grown increasingly sophisticated in recent years became almost 

worthless in 2020. These systems enable 

carriers to price fares optimally for each day 

and time of flight, and to minimize foregone 

revenue. But, because they rely on historical 

data to make price and schedule predictions, 

the unprecedented nature of the collapse in 

2020 meant they could provide little guidance and carriers were forced to assess market conditions without the benefit or precision 

of that quantitative analysis. 

While revenue management systems will regain their important role once travel demand 

returns to more normal rhythms, one source 

of ancillary revenue, change fees, was 

broadly scrapped in 2020. As traveler plans 

were forced to change due to COVID-19-related restrictions, airlines began dropping 

fees for itinerary changes in many ticket classes. As a share of total passenger revenue, 

cancellation fees dropped from about 2 percent in FY2019 and the years prior to under 

16 
 

 

 

- - -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

1 percent in FY2022. Some airlines have 

stated that the elimination of change fees is 

a permanent move and won't be reversed 

with the end of the pandemic. In contrast, 

baggage fees seem unlikely to be rescinded 

as their share rose from 4.0 percent to 4.6 

percent in FY2022. 

Other methods of segmenting passengers 

into more discreet cost categories based on 

comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, 

and access to social media and power outlets were unaffected by the pandemic. The 

offering of Basic Economy fares has been 

part of an effort by network carriers to protect 

market share in response to the rapid growth 

low cost carriers (LCC) have achieved in recent years. In 2019, mainline enplanements 

had increased almost 23 percent since 2007 

but low cost carrier enplanements grew by 39 

percent. RPM over the same period show a 

similar pattern with mainline RPMs up almost 

27 percent and LCC RPM fully 48 percent 

higher. These longer term trends were interrupted in 2020 with enplanements and RPM 

dropping across both mainline and LCC carriers to about 55 percent of 2019's levels. 

However, by 2022 the strength of LCC's became apparent again as their enplanements 

and RPM had recovered to about 97 percent 

of 2019 levels while mainline traffic lagged 

slightly at about 92 percent. 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Domestic Market 

0.0 

10.0 

20.0 

30.0 

40.0 

50.0 

60.0 

70.0 

80.0 

90.0 

100.0 

-50.0 

-40.0 

-30.0 

-20.0 

-10.0 

0.0 

10.0 

20.0 

30.0 

40.0 

50.0 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change 

Fiscal Year 

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor (right axis) 

17 
 

,., 

~ '' ~ ,,... ~ 

- -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

International Market 

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets, 

only to be reversed again in 2018 and 2019. 

That relative strength of domestic activity 

compared to international intensified during 

the downturn in 2020 and subsequent recovery. In 2022, domestic enplanements had returned to 92 percent of 2019's level after being at just 63 percent a year earlier, while international enplanements showed even 

stronger improvement, reaching 87 percent, 

compared to 47 percent in the previous year. 

International travel has been particularly impacted by border closings, quarantine requirements and other travel restrictions, as 

well as the uncertainty of when requirements 

might change. The fall off of business travel 

also contributed to the decline and slower recovery, even as leisure travel supported domestic markets. International travel is expected to show further gains in 2023 as the 

last restrictions are lifted and business travel 

continues its recovery. 

Annual Growth Rate (%) 

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

-20 

-40 

-60 

Fiscal Year 

Domestic Market International Market 

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 

18 
a 

, ... 

- - .... "'- ...... ' 

- -

- -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

-60 

-40 

-20 

0 

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140

Annual Growth Rate (%) 

U.S. Carriers - RPMs 

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 

Fiscal Year 

Domestic Market International Market 

U.S. Carriers - ASMs 

80 

Annual Growth Rate (%) 60 

40 

20 

-20 

-40 

-60 

Fiscal Year 

Domestic Market International Market 

0 

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 

The next two years of the international recovery will see some strong growth rates as activity levels come off a low base but these will 

return to more typical rates once levels approach 2019 values expected in 2024. For 

FY2023 and FY2024, the average annual 

growth rate for international ASM is forecast 

to be 19 percent, RPM are projected at 21 

percent and enplanements at 10 percent as 

aggregate trip lengths grow due to increasing 

Atlantic and Pacific activity. From FY2024-

2043, annual growth for ASM and RPM are 

forecast to grow at 2.9 and 3.0 percent, respectively, while enplanements will grow at a 

19 
 

l 

., 

I 

' ~ ~ 

-.. ----- '\\..._ 

........ ~ 

'' ' - - -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

rate of 3.3 percent. Taking these two periods 

as a whole gives annual growth rates from 

FY 2022-2043 for ASM, RPM and enplanements of 4.3, 4.6, and 3.9 percent, respectively. 

Load factors recovered sharply in 2022, 

reaching 77 percent, well above the low of 54 

percent in the previous year but still below 

2019’s 83 percent. Load factors are projected to rise throughout the remainder of the 

decade before plateauing at 82 percent 

through the end of the forecast. 

In the long-run, growth of major global economies will slow from the above-trend rates of 

recent, pre-pandemic years. Several moderating factors are at work, including high inflation and interest rates, reduced global trade, 

and political stresses. The European and 

Japanese economies are generally seeing 

slow but positive growth, in part due to weak 

trade with Asia. Overall, global conditions 

appear set to return to a stable path once the 

economic environment improves with looser 

financial conditions, diminished risk of recession, and confidence that COVID-19 has become endemic. Rising oil prices, however, 

will create some drag on this otherwise supportive environment for air travel demand. 

Annual Percent Change 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

International Market 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

-20 

-40 

-60 

Fiscal Year 

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 

ASMs RPMs 

The impact of COVID-19 on travel by region 

has varied considerably, as will the recovery 

paths. Factors affecting the responses by 

market are similar to those affecting travel as 

a whole: COVID-19 case counts, governmental restrictions, predominant traveler 

segments, and macroeconomic conditions. 

As a result, by 2022, enplanements to Latin 

Enplanements 

America had fully recovered followed but the 

Atlantic region still lagged and the Pacific region had the furthest to go. 

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination with more 

than twice the enplanements of Atlantic, the 

20 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

next largest in a typical year, due to its proximity to the U.S., strong trade ties, and popular visitor destinations. In 2022, Latin enplanements rose by 55 percent while RPMs 

rose 64 percent, pushing both measures 

above their 2019 levels. Much of the strength 

was fueled by leisure traffic heading to warm 

weather destinations and by the relatively 

low number of COVID-19 cases and travel 

restrictions. Enplanements and RPM growth 

are expected to pause in 2023 as other regions become viable to leisure travelers before resuming single-digit growth and returning to a long-term trend rate of around 4 percent. Over the twenty-year period 2023-

2043, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average rate of 3.6 percent a year while RPMs grow 4.0 percent a 

year. 

Switching to the Pacific region, it is the smallest in terms of enplanements despite the 

economic growth and potential of air travel to 

the region's emerging markets. After falling 

in 2020 to 42.1 percent of 2019's level, enplanements fell further in 2021 to just 5.8 percent as many countries enforced stringent 

travel restrictions, especially China, a very 

large market in the region. RPM also collapsed by similar amounts. In 2022, enplanements and RPM came off the bottom 

and recovered to about 20 percent of 2019 

levels but was held back as some countries’ 

travel restrictions remained in place. In 2023, 

those measures of activity are expected to 

continue expanding to above 50 percent. 

With comparatively slow trend growth, the region’s enplanements take time to fully recover to 2019's level but are within 5 percent 

by 2026 while RPM are fully recovered in that 

year. From FY2026 through the end of the 

forecast, Pacific enplanements and RPM are 

forecast to grow at average rates of 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. Although 

the region is forecast to have the strongest 

economic growth of any region over the next 

20 years, led by China and India, enplanements and RPMs over the period are restrained in part because U.S. carriers continue to provide a majority of their service in 

the region to Japan as opposed to faster 

growing countries. 

The Atlantic region ranks in the middle between the other two, with pre-pandemic enplanements roughly twice those in the Pacific 

region and half those in the Latin region. After contracting in 2015 and 2016, Atlantic enplanements began rising to reach 7.0 percent growth in 2019. This growth was supported by U.S. demand as well as growth of 

Middle East and African markets, even as the 

European economies slowed in 2019. In 

2020, like the other regions, Atlantic enplanements tumbled by 61 percent and then 

a further 47 percent in 2021 to bottom out at 

21 percent of 2019's level. Subsequent percentage gains are large, returning enplanements to 2019 levels in 2023. Although Western Europe is a mature area with moderate 

economic growth, the economically smaller 

Middle East and Africa areas are expanding 

rapidly with GDP growth rates more than 

twice that of Europe. As a result, a larger 

share of the forecast aviation demand in the 

Atlantic region is linked to those two areas, 

particularly in the second half of the forecast 

period. Over the forecast horizon from 2023 

to 2043, enplanements and RPM in the Atlantic region are forecast to grow at average 

annual rates of 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent, 

respectively. 

21 
 

■ ■ ■ ■ 

Millions of Passengers 

500 

450 

400 

350 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers 

59 

54 

48 61 

66 

42 53 

36 46 191 

32 

44 

31 

23 

41 142 

172 

21

15 100 

119 

89 5 88 

95 

7 

9 

4 

66 101 117 135 154 166 

89 33 

17 24 

71 92 

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 

Calendar Year 

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder 

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada 

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category. 

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world fell even more in 2020, and 

have recovered less since, than did U.S. carriers alone. Foreign carriers, without the relative strength of domestic markets for support, were forced to reduce capacity more 

and thereby sacrificed passenger traffic. Total passengers collapsed by an estimated 

73.4 percent to 67 million in 2020 as all regions posted losses led by an 80.4 percent 

reduction in the Atlantic region. In 2021, the 

Latin American and Atlantic regions saw sizable growth from the previous year, while the 

Pacific and Canada Transborder regions 

saw further declines, but by 2022, all regions 

posted strong, positive growth. 

FAA projects total international passenger 

growth of 24 percent in 2023 as the recovery 

progresses, with the strongest passenger 

growth rates in the Transborder and Pacific 

regions. Total passenger numbers return to 

above 2019 levels in 2024 – 2023 for all regions except Pacific which returns in 2028. 

Over the entire forecast horizon from 2023 to 

2043, international passengers average 

growth of 4.4 percent a year, as levels increase from 195 million in 2022 to 482 million 

in 2043. 

The Atlantic and Latin American regions 

were of comparable size in 2019 but by the 

end of the forecast period the Latin American 

region counts about 15 percent more pas22 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

sengers and their growth paths differ. Atlantic growth is faster early on and slows relative 

to Latin American in later years, consistent 

with GDP forecasts. Over the 20-year forecast period (2023-2043), the Atlantic region 

grows at an average annual rate of 4.1 percent while Latin America grows at a rate of 

3.8 percent. Although European markets in 

the Atlantic region are mature and relatively 

slow growing, other markets such as the Middle East and Africa boost overall growth in 

the region. 

In the Pacific region, passenger levels in 

2022 were just a third of those in 2019 and 

combined with stringent COVID-19 travel restrictions and sluggish Japanese GDP 

System 

System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity contracted 36 percent to 789 

billion ASMs in 2020 while RPMs plummeted 

47 percent to 548 billion. During the same 

period, system-wide enplanements fell 44 

percent to 509 million. After a tentative beginning towards recovery in 2021, activity 

surged in 2022 as ASM, RPM and enplanements expanded by 34 percent, 60 percent 

and 49 percent, respectively. In prior years, 

U.S. carriers had prioritized the domestic 

over the international market in terms of allocating capacity as the U.S. saw stronger economic growth than many regions around the 

world. And by 2022, travel restrictions associated with COVID-19 caused this split to 

largely continue as domestic capacity was 

curtailed less than international: down 5 percent in 2022 from 2019 for domestic compared to down 21 percent for international. 

However, as U.S. carriers continue the process of recovery, international capacity 

growth rates will outpace domestic, mainly 

because the international reductions in 2020 

were much more severe. Subsequent years 

growth that offsets some of the strong economic growth and rising incomes in China, 

India and South Korea, the outcome is a relatively slow return to 2019 passenger levels 

in 2028. From 2023 to 2043, passengers between the United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 7.2 percent a year. 

Like the Atlantic region, Canada transborder 

is another mature market but is considerably 

smaller. It is projected to grow at an average 

rate of 5.1 percent over the forecast period, 

somewhat faster than the Atlantic region. 

through 2043 see carriers revert to slightly 

faster capacity expansion in domestic markets compared to international driven in part 

by slightly stronger economic activity. 

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 56 percent in 2022 while regional 

carriers carried 20 percent more passengers 

– a difference explained by the shift in leisure 

demand as well as the more restrictive capacity constraints faced by regional carriers. 

In the domestic market in 2019, mainline enplanements marked their ninth consecutive 

year of increases, a trend that was abruptly 

halted in 2020 with a decline of 44 percent 

but followed two years later by a 52 percent 

increase in 2022. Similarly, international 

mainline passengers had posted a tenth consecutive year of growth in 2019, a trend that 

was also broken in 2020 with a 53 percent 

decline but then in 2022 was followed by a 

larger 87 percent increase. Domestic mainline enplanement growth is forecast to slow 

in 2023, rising 6 percent as enplanements 

23 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

approach 2019 levels. In 2024, domestic enplanements exceed 2019 levels for the first 

time since the start of the pandemic. With the 

recovery complete, domestic enplanements 

resume growth driven by economic fundamentals and average 2.7 percent over the remainder of the forecast. International mainline enplanements follow a similar path with 

strong growth in 2023, surpassing 2019 in 

2024, and trend-like growth through the end 

of the forecast averaging 3.3 percent. 

Cargo 

Air cargo traffic includes both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars, as well as from other air 

carriers. 

U.S. air carriers flew 51.5 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2022, a mere 0.5 percent increase compared to the previous year’s 16.9 

percent surge. Domestic cargo RTMs edged 

down 0.3 percent to 19.8 billion in 2022 while 

international RTMs expanded 1.0 percent to 

31.7 billion. In comparison, for the decade 

ending in 2019, domestic RTM increased at 

an average rate of 3.2 percent and international grew at a 3.8 percent rate. The levelling off in RTM resulted from a normalization 

of consumer purchasing patterns as demand 

shifted from goods back into services. Air 

cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers averaged 78.7 percent of the total in the years 

leading up to 2020 but then spiked to 88.0 

percent in 2020 and 2021, with passenger 

carriers flying the remainder. In 2022, that 

Although carriers cut capacity aggressively 

in 2020, the drop in traffic was even greater 

and system load factor fell from 84.5 percent 

in 2019 to 69.5 in 2020 and further to 68.5 in 

2021 – a combined drop that far exceeded 

those following both 9/11 and the Great Recession. Load factor recovered sharply in 

2022, rising to 81.8 percent. Thereafter, load 

factor edges gradually higher, plateauing at 

85.3 percent in the second half of the forecast. 

ratio dropped to 86.3 percent as passenger 

flights resumed, increasing available bellyhold capacity. Total RTMs flown by the allcargo carriers declined 1.5 percent in 2022 

while total RTMs flown by passenger carriers 

rose by 0.5 percent. As passenger flights return, the share of cargo on all-cargo carriers 

will ease, dropping to about 82 percent in 

2025. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic 

spans four regions consisting of Atlantic, 

Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, globalization and trade. The forecasts of revenue ton miles rely on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. 

First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most 

of the shift from air to ground transportation 

has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs derive from models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

24 
 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

international cargo RTMs depend on growth 

in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs 

between passenger and all-cargo carriers 

based on an analysis of historic trends in 

shares, changes in industry structure, and 

market assumptions. 

After increasing by just 0.5 percent in 2022, 

total RTMs are expected to remain flat in 

2023 as the normalization of consumer demand for goods versus services continues. 

Because of steady U.S. and world economic 

growth in the long term, FAA projects total 

RTMs to increase at an average annual rate 

of 2.8 percent over the forecast period (from 

2023 to 2043). 

Domestic cargo RTMs from 2023 to 2043 are 

forecast to increase at an average annual 

rate of 2.0 percent. In 2022, all-cargo carriers carried 92.7 percent of domestic cargo 

RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to decline modestly to about 92 percent in the medium-term as passenger flights return to the 

system. In the long-term, the all-cargo share 

rises only slightly to 93.4 percent by 2043 

based on increases in capacity for all-cargo 

carriers. 

International cargo RTMs also flattened out 

in 2022 as surface transportation snarls were 

resolved. As with domestic markets, RTM 

carried by all-cargo carriers declined slightly 

in 2022 while that transported by passenger 

carriers expanded again at a double-digit 

rate. With the post-pandemic return of passenger flights, RTM on passenger aircraft is 

expected to continue growing rapidly, increasing about 14 percent per year in both 

2023 and 2024. Over the same years, allcargo RTM will shrink by about 2 percent per 

year as some tonnage is lost to passenger 

carriers. The share of international cargo 

RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers was 82.3 

percent in 2022 and is forecast to decline 

steadily during the recovery period before 

gradually increasing in line with historical 

trends and ending at 80.8 percent in 2043. 

Following the period of recovery, growth for 

both types of carriers returns to long-run 

trend rates. For the forecast period (2023-

2043), international cargo RTMs are expected to increase an average of 3.3 percent 

a year based on projected growth in world 

GDP with the Other International region having the fastest RTM growth (3.7 percent), followed by Pacific (3.6 percent), Atlantic (2.4 

percent), and Latin America region (1.8 percent). 

25 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

General Aviation 

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the 

GA fleet and activity. Since the survey is 

conducted on a calendar year (CY) base and 

the records are collected by CY, the GA forecast is done by CY. Forecasts of new aircraft 

deliveries, which use the data from General 

Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), 

together with assumptions of retirement 

rates, generate growth rates of the fleet by 

aircraft categories, which are applied to the 

GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts 

are carried out for “active aircraft,”2 not total 

aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in January and June. 

The results of the 2021 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The active 

GA fleet was estimated to be 209,195 aircraft 

in 2021 (2.5 percent increase from 2020). 

Small declines in turbojet and multi-engine 

piston fleet were more than offset by increases in all the other categories, including 

a 2.2 percent increase in the largest segment 

of single-engine pistons, a 2.9 percent increase in rotorcraft, and 6.0 percent increase 

in experimental aircraft fleets. Total hours 

flown were estimated to be 26.4 million in 

2021, up 17.6 percent from the previous 

year, 3.4 percent above where they were in 

2019 and at their highest level since the historical peak of 2007. Increases were across 

the board, with the highest absolute and percent increase in turbojet (46.0 percent (much 

smaller category of gliders and lighter than 

air aircraft together recorded a 82.0 percent 

increase in activity). 

In 2022, deliveries of the general aviation aircraft manufactured in the U.S. increased to 

1,954, 17.0 percent higher than in CY 2021 

and 10.3 percent higher than their 2019 

level. Deliveries of single-engine piston aircraft were up 15.0 percent, while the much 

smaller segment of multi-engine piston deliveries were up by 40.0 percent (summing to a 

15.4 percent increase in the fixed engine piston deliveries). Business jet deliveries increased by 20.5 percent and turboprop deliveries were up 17.0 percent, amounting for an 

18.8 percent increase in fixed wing turbine 

shipments. While the GAMA statistics for factory net billings were not available yet for the 

U.S. manufactured GA aircraft, global billings 

increased in 2022 by 5.9 percent to $22.9 billion. 

2 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year. 

26 
 

- -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Shipments 

3,000 

General Aviation 

U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings 

$30

 2,500 $25 

2,000 $20 

1,500 $15 

1,000 $10 

500 $5 

-

2013 

Source: GAMA 

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 

Calendar Year 

2019 2020 2021 2022 

$0 

Global Shipments 

U.S. Billings ($ Billion) 

GAMA also reported the rotorcraft deliveries 

increased at a global level in 2022 in both 

piston and turbine segments by 7.2 percent 

and 5.7 percent, respectively. 

These current conditions indicate the GA 

sector, which was not as severely affected by 

the pandemic as the airlines, completely recovered by activity, surpassing 2019 levels. 

The active fleet was only 0.8 percent below 

2019 levels, with the fixed-wing turbine and 

experimental aircraft categories above their 

2019 levels. The long-term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The active general aviation fleet, which showed an increase of 2.5 

percent between 2020 and 2021, is forecast 

to increase from its 2021 level of 209,195 aircraft to 216,395 by 2043, as the declines in 

the fixed-wing piston fleet are offset by increases in turbine, rotorcraft, experimental, 

Shipments of U.S. Manufactured Aircraft 

Global Billings ($ Billion) 

and light sport fleets. The total active general 

aviation fleet grows by a small increase of 0.2 

percent annually. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 17,550 aircraft between 

2021 and 2043 to total 50,235 in 2043, an 

average rate of 2.0 percent a year during this 

period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 2.7 

percent a year. When measured from the 

2019 levels, the growth rate for the turbinepowered fleet is 1.9 percent. The growth in 

U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts 

for the growth in the turbine fleet. 

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

by 19,645 aircraft between 2021 and 2043, 

an average annual rate of -0.7 percent. Un27 
■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

favorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, availability of much lower cost alternatives for recreational usage, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of 

the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline. 

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.2 percent annually, adding 

about 2,595 new aircraft by 2043, nearly 

doubling its 2021 fleet size of 2,650. 

Active General Aviation Aircraft 

250,000 

200,000 

150,000 

100,000 

50,000 

0 

Fixed Wing Piston 

Rotorcraft 

Experimental and Other 

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to marginally increase, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

forecast to increase an average of 0.7 percent per year through 2043, from 26.4 million 

in 2021 to 30.8 million, as the newer aircraft 

fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston 

hours are forecast to decrease at a slightly 

faster rate than the fleet, an average of 0.8 

2013 2023 2033 2043 

Calendar Year 

Fixed Wing Turbine 

LSA 

percent a year. Countering this trend, hours 

flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) 

are forecast to increase 2.2 percent yearly 

between 2021 and 2043. Jet aircraft account 

for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 

2.7 percent between 2021 and 2043. The 

large increases in jet hours result mainly from 

the increasing size of the business jet fleet. 

28 
■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

General Aviation Hours Flown 

(in thousands)

35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

Fixed Wing Piston 

Rotorcraft 

Experimental and Other 

Rotorcraft activity, positively impacted by increases in oil prices, associated oil exploration and increasing additional demand 

through slow recovery in the commercial airlines sector improved in 2021. Potential effects of Advanced Air Mobility (including eVTOLs) in the later years of the forecast period 

are too uncertain yet to include in the forecast. The active fleet of rotorcraft is projected 

to grow at a similar rate to the previous year’s 

forecast, 1.5 percent a year, driven by higher 

growth in the turbine segment, going from a 

total of (piston and turbine together) 10,032 

in 2021 to 13,870 in 2043. Rotorcraft hours 

are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually 

between 2021 and 2043. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 3.2 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet. 

2013 2023 2033 2043 

Calendar Year 

Fixed Wing Turbine 

LSA 

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 756,928 

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2022. The number of certificates in most pilot 

categories continued to increase, while there 

small declines in the rotorcraft only and recreational certificates. The FAA suspended 

the student pilot forecast since 2018. The 

number of student pilot certificates has been 

affected by a regulatory change that went 

into effect in April 2016 and removed the expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. The number of student pilots jumped 

from 128,501 at the end of 2016 to 149,121 

by the end of 2017, and to 280,582 at the end 

of 2022. The 2016 rule change generates a 

cumulative increase in the certificate numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private 

29 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

pilot or higher. There is no sufficient data to 

perform a reliable forecast for the student pilots. 

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates. The number of 

commercial pilot certificates started to increase since 2017 until showing a slight decline of 0.1 percent in 2022 to 104,498. While 

the ATP certificate holders increased every 

year since 2011, significantly reduced number of flights and a large number of parked 

aircraft due to the pandemic generated an 

overcapacity for the ATPs employed by the 

airlines, despite government support to the 

aviation sector. Consequently, the number of 

pilots holding an ATP certificate declined in 

2020 and 2021, but reached to 166,738 in 

2022, a 1.7 percent increase from the previous year (1.1 percent higher than their 2019 

level). 

Private pilots had stabilized their decline 

since 2016 at around 162,000 and showed 

an increase in 2022 to 164,090 from 161,459 

in the previous year. Sport pilot certificates, 

created in 2005, kept their steady increase 

since their inception to reach 6,957 by December 31, 2022. Rotorcraft pilots continued 

their decline since 2016 to end up with 

13,180 by the end of 2022. 

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to increase slightly between 2022 and 2043 

from 309,608 to 314,570. The ATP category 

is forecast to increase by 29,360 (up 0.8 percent annually). The much smaller category of 

sport pilots are predicted to increase by 2.5 

percent annually over the forecast period. 

Commercial pilot certificates are projected to 

remain flat between 2022 and 2043. On the 

other hand, private pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate 

of 0.1 percent over the forecast horizon. 

30 
■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

0 

100,000 

200,000 

300,000 

400,000 

500,000 

600,000 

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate 

2013 2023 2033 2043 

Calendar Year 

Sport Pilot Private Pilot 

Commercial Pilot Airline Transport Pilot 

Rotorcraft only 

31 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

FAA Operations 

The traffic at FAA facilities underwent drastic 

changes during the period of 2019 and 2020 

from the COVID-19 impact. There was 16.7 

percent decline in traffic from 53.3 million in 

2019 to 44.4 million in 2020. Activity continued a healthy recovery of 10.2 percent from 

47.7 million in 2021 to 52.6 million in 2022. 

While domestic markets led the way for the 

recovery from 2020 to 2021, international 

markets began to pick up steam in 2022. By 

September 2022, domestic passenger volume has reached 99% of the pre-COVID-19 

level while international passenger volume 

reached 86% of the pre-COVID-19 level. 

After operations return to pre-pandemic levels, longer-term economic health along with 

the growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive the long-term 

growth in operations at FAA facilities over the 

rest of the forecast period. Activity at FAA 

towers and contract towers is projected to return to pre-COVID levels in 2023 and then increase at an average rate of 1.2 percent a 

year through 2043 from 54.8 million in 2023 

to 69.4 million in 2043. The 1.2 percent annual growth forecast is lower than the 1.5 

percent forecast for 2022-2042 last year partially due to the faster aircraft up-gauging. 

Commercial operations3 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 2.0 percent a year, 

approximately four times faster than noncommercial operations. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in 

U.S. airline passengers (2.0 percent versus 

2.6 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft 

mile) and higher load factors. Both of these 

trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate 

more passengers without increasing the 

number of flights. 

General aviation operations are forecast to 

increase an average of 0.5 percent a year as 

increases in turbine powered activity more 

than offset declines in piston activity. General aviation operations accounted for 55 

percent of total operations in 2022. This is 

slightly higher than pre-COVID share of 51 

percent in 2019. The decline of general aviation traffic was relatively mild during the early 

years of the pandemic where recovery speed 

was swift, and commercial aviation is now recapturing market share given that its share 

has increased from 38% to 41% between 

2021 and 2022. 

The growth in operations at towered airports 

is not uniform. Most of the activity at large 

and medium hubs4 is commercial in nature, 

as these are the airports where the vast majority (about 89 percent in 2022) of the passenger enplanements in the U.S. occur. 

3 Commercial operations include air carrier and 

commuter/air taxi operations. 

4 A large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more 

of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in 

FY 2022. A medium hub is defined to have at 

least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total 

U.S. revenue passenger enplanements. In the 

2022 TAF there were 30 large hub airports and 

34 medium hub airports. 

32 
 

■ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

FAA & Contract Tower Operations 

Operations (000) 

80,000 

70,000 

60,000 

50,000 

40,000 

30,000 

20,000 

10,000 

0 

2013 2023 2033 2043 

Commercial 

Given the growth in airline demand and most 

of that demand is at large and medium hubs, 

activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than smaller 

airports including small FAA towers5 and 

FAA contract towers6. The forecasted annual growth in operations is 2.2 percent at 

large hubs, 1.8 percent at medium hubs, 0.8 

percent at small FAA towers, and 0.6 percent 

at FAA contract towers between 2023 and 

2043. 

Among the 30 large hubs, the airports with 

the fastest long-term annual growth forecast 

are those located along the coastal sections 

5 Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor 

FAA contract towers. 

6 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers 

providing air traffic control services under contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic 

control specialists. 

Fiscal Year 

Non Commercial 

of the country where most large cities are located. Large cities have historically shown 

to generate robust economic activity, which 

in turn drives up the airline demand. On the 

other hand, many of the large hub airports located in the middle of the country are forecast to have slower long-term annual growth. 

In terms of COVID-19 recovery, the airports 

with mostly domestic traffic and the ones located at popular leisure destinations are 

forecast to have shorter recovery timeline. 

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations7 are forecast to grow slightly 

faster than at towered facilities. This is in 

part a reflection of the different mix of activity 

7 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights. 

33 
 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

at Tracons. Tracon operations are forecast 

to increase an average of 1.4 percent a year 

between 2023 and 2043. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 55 percent of Tracon operations in 2022 and are 

projected to grow 2.0 percent a year over the 

forecast period. General aviation activity at 

these facilities is projected to grow only 0.4 

percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. 

Growth in airline traffic and domestic leisure 

aviation is expected to lead to increases in 

activity at En-Route centers until the business aviation sector recovers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route 

centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 2.0 percent a year from 2023 to 

2043, with commercial activity growing at the 

rate of 2.3 percent annually. Activity at EnRoute centers is forecast to grow faster than 

activity at towered airports and FAA Tracons 

because more of the activity at En-Route 

centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) 

general aviation flying.8 In 2022, the share of 

commercial IFR aircraft handled at FAA EnRoute centers is about 80% percent, which 

is greater than the 55 percent share at Tracons or the 41 percent share at FAA and 

Contract Towers. 

8 Much of the general aviation activity at towered 

airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in 

nature, and does not impact the centers. 

34 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

Boosted by the sharp recovery in demand for 

air travel and cargo, the number of aircraft in 

the U.S. commercial fleet grew by 18 percent 

in 2021-22 (an increase of 1,055 aircraft), 

with many coming off ‘parked’ status. The total number of commercial aircraft is forecast 

to increase from 6,852 in 2022 to 10,286 in 

2043, an average annual growth rate of 2.0 

percent a year. The continued recovery in 

demand from the COVID-19 downturn along 

with long-term post-COVID increases in demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is 

expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2022 and 2043 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 3,915 to 5,925, a net average of 

96 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. As the industry recovers from the 

COVID-19 downturn, many aircraft that were 

temporarily parked are returning to the fleet, 

resulting in a large increase in the fleet (approximately 193 aircraft per year) in the first 

two years of the forecast and then slower 

rates thereafter. The narrow-body fleet (including E-series aircraft as well as A220-series at JetBlue and A220-series at Delta) is 

projected to grow 80 aircraft a year as carriers replace current technology 737 and A320 

family aircraft with the next generation MAX 

and Neo families. The wide-body fleet grows 

by an average of 19 aircraft a year as carriers 

add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the fleet while 

retiring 767-300/400 and 777-200 aircraft. In 

total the U.S. passenger carrier wide-body 

fleet increases by 3.2 percent a year over the 

forecast period. 

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to increase from 2,002 aircraft in 2022 to 2,387 in 

2043 as the fleet expands by 0.8 percent a 

year (18 aircraft) between 2022 and 2043. 

Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, 

while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the 

E-2 family in the second half of this decade. 

By 2043, the number of jets in the regional 

carrier fleet totals 2,158, up from 1,626 in 

2022. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast 

to shrink by 39% from 376 in 2022 to 229 by 

2043. These aircraft account for 9.6 percent 

of the regional fleet in 2043, down from 18.8 

percent in 2022. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 935 aircraft in 2022 

to 1,974 aircraft in 2043 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by 20 aircraft a 

year as 737-800/900MAX’s are converted 

from passenger use to cargo service. The 

wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 

30 aircraft a year as new 777-8/10 and converted 767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, 

replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 767-

200 freighters. 

35 
 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

12,000 

10,000 

8,000 

6,000 

4,000 

2,000 

0 

U.S. Carrier Fleet 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

Calendar Year 

Mainline NB Mainline WB 

Cargo Jet Regionals 

36 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Commercial Space 

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space • Provides guidance to prospective 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for 

obtaining an authorization and operating safely, 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operaAct). Title 51 and the Executive Order also 

direct the U.S. Department of Transportation 

tions and related commercial space 

transportation activities, 

to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. 

commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is 

to license and regulate commercial launch 

and reentry operations and non-federal 

• Evaluates applications for licenses 

for launch and reentry site operations, 

launch sites to protect public health and 

safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of 

• Monitors and enforces regulatory 

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

the United States. and other regulated commercial 

space activities, 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out inside the U.S. and by U.S. persons 

(which includes U.S. corporations) inside or 

outside the United States. The FAA does not 

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

license launches or reentries the U.S. Gov- or reentry, 

ernment carries out for the Government 

(such as those owned and operated by National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

(NASA) or the Department of Defense). Am-

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into other modes of transportation including the National Airspace 

ateur-class rockets do not require a FAA license or permit9. 

System (NAS) by establishing appropriate hazard areas and limits to ensure the protection of the public, 

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs 

the following major functions: • Coordinates research into the safety, 

environmental, and operational impli-

• Maintains an effective regulatory 

framework for commercial space 

transportation activities, 

cations of new technologies and the 

evolving commercial space transportation industry, 

9 Per 14 CFR Chapter 1, Part 1, section 1.1: Amateur rocket means an unmanned rocket that is 

propelled by a motor or motors having a combined total impulse of 889,600 Newton-seconds 

(200,000 pound-seconds) or less; and cannot 

reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers 

above the earth’s surface. 

37 
 

 

 

 

 

	 	 	

	 	 	 	 	

	 	 	 	 	

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space industry by hosting working 

groups and conferences, 

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as the Department of Defense and NASA to assure consistent 

approaches to regulations, policy, 

and standards, and 

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world. 

In addition to AST headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains staff with 

assigned duty locations near active launch 

ranges to facilitate communication with 

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA 

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many activities performed by FAA 

during this cycle. The most notable activities 

are described here. 

Pre‐Application Consultation for Licenses,

Experimental Permits, and Safety Element

Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, FAA assists them in identifying potential 

obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. In addition, many new operators are seeking to incorporate new technologies, vehicle types, or operational models 

creating opportunities for FAA to assist in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance. 

space launch operators and to implement 

FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are currently assigned to duty locations in close proximity to: 

Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station in Florida; Johnson 

Space Center in Texas; and, Vandenberg Air 

Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space 

Port in California. FAA also directly supports 

NASA’s commercial space initiatives by 

providing on-site staff at both the Johnson 

Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to 

coordinate the FAA’s regulatory and compliance activities with NASA’s development 

and operational requirements for commercial space. 

Licenses, Permits, and Safety Element Ap‐

provals

FAA authorizes commercial space transportation activities via the issuance of licenses, 

permits, and safety element approval. 

Though many licenses authorize multiple 

launches (for mature launch systems), the 

need remains for FAA to also issue individual 

launch licenses for systems that are still maturing towards a high level of reliability. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial 

space industry, FAA often evaluates launch 

and reentry systems and operations that are 

evolving and changing, which may ultimately 

require license modifications or issuance of 

new licenses. 

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 

health and safety or the safety of property, 

38 
 

 

 

	 	

 

 

 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States. 

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

and/or payload determination becomes part 

of the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing determination is based. 

FAA reviews and issues launch and reentry 

site operator licenses and license renewals. 

FAA also reviews and evaluates launch site 

license applications for launch sites located 

in foreign countries but operating with U.S.-

licensed launch or reentry systems. FAA coordinates planning among Federal, state, 

and local governments and with the commercial range operators or users. As part of the 

evaluation of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also conducts environmental 

reviews consistent with its responsibilities 

under the National Environmental Policy Act. 

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety element approvals for space launch 

systems equipment, processes, technicians, 

training and other supporting activities. FAA 

reviews, evaluates, and issues safety approvals to support the continued introduction of 

new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications. 

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive 

safety analyses to support the evaluation and 

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance of 

safety-critical space flight personnel to determine how they affect public safety risk. In the 

near future, as commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, AST and the FAA’s Office of Aerospace Medicine may evaluate, analyze, and 

determine the health risks to the space flight 

participants (crew and space flight participants) due to natural and flight-induced 

launch and reentry environments, as well as 

any hazardous ground operations directly associated with the flight. 

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 330 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year. Inspections often occur simultaneously at any of the 

12 licensed U.S. and international commercial space launch sites, as well as at 4 Federal launch ranges and 3 exclusive-use 

launch sites. The establishment of non-federal launch sites requires additional inspections in areas such as ground safety that 

have traditionally been overseen by the U.S. 

Air Force (now the U.S. Space Force) at Federal ranges. At spaceports and launch sites 

with high launch rates (e.g., Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force 

Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, 

and Spaceport America), at least 80 percent 

of inspections are typically conducted by locally-based field inspectors. Additionally, as 

a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many inspections in fiscal year (FY) 2020 were handled remotely. FAA will leverage this approach in the upcoming years in order to respond to a dynamic operational tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency. 

Mishap Investigations

Mishap events have demonstrated that FAA 

needs to have the capacity to oversee the investigation of at least two space launch or 

reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously 

39 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

anywhere in the world, and to lead/oversee 

as many as nine investigations during a single year. FAA anticipates an increase in mishaps with new operators coming online. FAA 

reviews all applicant mishap plans and accident investigation procedures as part of the 

license and permit evaluation process. 

NAS Integration

AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP) to 

support the safe and efficient integration of 

commercial launch and reentry operations 

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast 

FAA’s 5-year launch and reentry operations 

forecast relies on data collected from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its launch and reentry forecasts, 

tying launch and reentry forecasts directly to 

anticipated operations by commercial space 

transportation firms known to FAA. As commercial space activity is still a highly dynamic and rapidly evolving industry, FAA’s 

forecasting methodology continues to take a 

conservative view of industry growth by using historical launch activity data to establish 

better forecasting parameters for both new 

applicants and existing operators. 

There are several factors that magnify the 

challenges associated with predicting the 

number of launches and reentries to expect 

in a given year. They include: 

 list of firms intending to launch or actually launch is dynamic, 

 continued development of new technologies, 

 launch rates for reusable launch vehicles, 

through the NAS and its system of airports 

and air traffic managed by the ATO. AST expects an increased level of interaction with 

the ATO, ARP, and the FAA Office of 

NextGen (ANG). Further, AST works with 

the ATO as FAA develops technologies to 

facilitate safe and efficient integration of commercial launch and reentry operations 

through the NAS, including technologies to 

improve the integration of launch and reentry 

data into FAA air traffic control systems and 

technologies to improve the timely and accurate development and distribution of notices 

of aircraft hazard areas. 

 commercial human spaceflight by 

both government astronauts and private citizens, 

 dynamic nature of flight test programs, and 

 mishaps. 

New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)] allow a faster operational tempo, 

and at the same time, early use of these technologies can increase the probability of a mishap. A mishap can drastically impact launch 

plans for one or more firms. Investigations and 

subsequent “return to flight” for firms impacted 

by a mishap can take months. FY2023 forecast data was collected in summer 2022 and 

finalized in September 2022. 

However, there are reasons for optimism 

around the future of space activity moving forward. Space data, products, and services 

provide tangible benefits and economic opportunity to the American people as well as 

people all over the world. Firms are motivated towards new technology that is expected to increase launch cadences year 

over year. Interest and demand for space 

40 
 

 

I 

I 

I 

/ / 

~ _/ 

-

-

-

-

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

tourism as well as demands for placement of 

satellites and other equipment is anticipated 

to grow with each successful space mission. 

Likewise, as launch/reentry activities increase investment opportunities are also expected to grow with the global space economy approaching $1 trillion through the next 

decade. FAA has licensed approximately 

563 launch/reentries since 1989, with 42% or 

238 launch/reentries occurring in just the past 

five years (FY2018-2022). FY2022 actuals 

were the highest in U.S. history at 74, accounting for 13% of the activity since 1989. 

350 

FAA is forecasting launch and re-entry activity to increase from a low-high range of 61-94 

in FY2023 to a low-high range of 123-288 by 

FY2027. Much of this increase is attributable 

to the lineup of reusable vehicles, the growing 

demand for commercial satellite services, 

and the expectation for increased human 

space exploration. Considering these factors, the following table and graph provide 

FAA’s forecasts through 2027, as well as historical activity. 

FAA Authorized Operations Forecast, Fiscal Year 

Operations 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 

Forecast High 25 29 26 38 44 46 44 73 94 111 158 225 288 

Forecast Low 22 25 17 17 33 34 36 52 61 67 72 76 123 

Actual 14 17 22 35 32 33 64 74 

It is important to note all FAA-authorized 

commercial space operations are included in 

this forecast, regardless of where they occurred in the world. That is, not all launch 

and reentry activity occurs at one location, for 

example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the world, including multiple 

41 
 

	 	 	 	

	 	 	 	

 

 

	 	 	 	 	

	 	 	 	

 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

reentries in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans 

and nine licensed launches from New Zealand. This forecast, however, does not include launch activity not authorized by the 

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy 

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly 

evolving industry. The industry’s growth 

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations. 

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging Rapidly

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies 

and new approaches to space launch and 

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and 

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their vertically launched rockets. 

Both companies are now developing a new 

generation of much larger orbital vehicles 

that will launch and land in a vertical configuration. In 2022, 56 of 60 Falcon 9 launches 

were accomplished using reused boosters. 

While these new orbital-class vehicles are 

expected to lead to increases in the number 

of annual launch and reentry operations over 

the next four years, if the trend is realized, 

greater increases may continue in the future, 

as the upper end of the forecast shows in fiscal years 2024 through 2027. Other U.S. 

commercial entities are also developing a 

number of launch vehicles for medium and 

small payloads. In the medium launch sector 

ULA’s Vulcan, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, and 

Relativity Space’s Terran R vehicles are 

scheduled to begin launching over the next 

few years. In the small launch vehicle sector 

Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne, Relativity 

FAA (e.g. U.S. Department of Defense or 

non-commercial NASA launches), launch activity for other nations, and this forecast is not 

tied exclusively to satellite demand. 

Space’s Terran 1, ABL’s RS1, Firefly’s Alpha, Astra Rocket 3 have all made their first 

launch attempts during the past few years. 

At the same time, state and local governments are joining with commercial firms to 

promote additional launch and reentry sites, 

and some firms are seeking to establish 

launch sites for their exclusive use. This 

added launch capacity sets the stage for simultaneous operations and an increase in the 

number operations per year. 

New Markets for Commercial Space Trans‐

portation Continue to Emerge

The continuing development of commercial 

space transportation technology has spurred 

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As the commercialization of 

space flight demand increases on suborbital 

and orbital launches, new and reusable vehicles are emerging. With SpaceX and Blue 

Origin leading the way for reusable rocket 

development, there are a number of other 

private companies following suit. The introduction of reusable rockets is a significant 

cost reducer and thereby encourages more 

exploration into space. 

States and municipalities have sought to 

open new spaceports to attract commercial 

space transportation and associated hightech firms and create technology hubs for research and development. In 2021, Blue 

Origin flew its first crewed mission into 

space. Since 2008, NASA has managed the 

Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services 

42 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

from commercial providers to deliver cargo to 

and from the International Space Station 

(ISS). In 2021 and 2022, SpaceX successfully transported NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. The first crewed 

launch of Boeing’s vehicle for NASA’s 

crewed missions (Starliner) is scheduled for 

April 2023. The commercial vehicles used 

by NASA for cargo and crew transportation 

will have other commercial applications that 

increase the capabilities of the commercial 

space transportation industry as a whole. 

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers. 

Additional FAA resources may be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests. 

43 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Unmanned Aircraft System and Advance Air Mobility 

New Entrants: Analysis and Forecasts 

Drones have been experiencing healthy 

growth in the United States and around the 

world over the past decade. The last few 

years have been no exception despite the 

profound impact of COVID-19 on the overall 

economy. A drone consists of a remotely-piloted aircraft and its associated elements— 

including the control station and the associated communication links—that are required 

for safe and efficient operation in the national 

airspace system (NAS). The introduction of 

drones in the NAS has opened up numerous 

possibilities, especially from a commercial 

perspective. That introduction has also 

brought operational challenges including 

safe and secure integration of drones into the 

NAS. Despite these challenges, the drone 

sector holds enormous promise; potential 

uses range from individuals flying solely for 

recreational purposes to individual businesses carrying out focused missions to 

large companies delivering commercial 

packages and delivering medical supplies. 

Public service uses, such as conducting 

10 These are also called, interchangeably, hobby 

or model and non-hobby or non-model UAS, respectively. On October 5, 2018, the President 

signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 

(Pub. L. 115-254). Section 349 of that Act repealed the Special Rule for Model Aircraft (section 336 of Pub. L. 112-95; Feb. 14, 2012) and 

replaced it with new conditions to operate recreational sUAS without requirements for FAA certification or operating authority. The Exception for 

Limited Recreational Operations of Unmanned 

search and rescue support missions following natural disasters, are proving promising 

as well. 

This section provides a broad overview covering recreational and commercial (or Part 

107) unmanned aircraft10 and their recent 

trends, as gathered from trends in registration, surveys, tracking overall market, and 

operational information. Using these trends 

and insights from the industry, the FAA produces a number of forecasts. Forecasts reported in the following sections are driven primarily by the assumptions of the continuing 

evolution of the regulatory environment, the 

commercial ingenuity of manufacturers and 

operators, persistent recreational uses, and 

underlying demand for drone services. The 

sectoral analyses are enhanced by discussion of recent survey findings, data on imported equipment, remote pilots and waiver 

and exemptions of small UAS. The section 

also provides analysis and forecasts of large 

UAS. Finally, an analysis of new and emerging sector of Advance Air Mobility is provided 

together with some initial projections drawn 

Aircraft established by section 349 is codified at 

49 U.S.C. 44809 [see https://bit.ly/30tUf1Z for 

more details]. Recreational fliers, under Section 

349, are referred to as “recreational fliers or modeler community-based organizations” [see 

https://bit.ly/2PUhMCI]. In previous notes including other documents of the Agency, these terms 

are often interchanged. 

44 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

from FAA sponsored and other research, 

government and industry reports. 

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration 

The FAA’s online registration system for recreational/model small drones went into effect 

on December 21, 2015. This required all 

drones weighing more than 0.55 pounds (or 

250 grams) and fewer than 55 pounds (or 25 

kilograms) to be registered using the on-line 

system11 or the existing (paper-driven) aircraft registry. Registration was free for the 

first 30 days, and $5 thereafter. Following a 

temporary halt in registration due to an order 

from the US Appeals Court in Washington, 

DC in May, 2017 (Taylor v. Huerta), the registration requirement for all model aircraft 

was reinstated in December, 2017 with the 

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 

[Pub. L. 115-91, Sec. 1092]. The NDAA extended the registration for three years for 

those registered prior to December, 2017. 

New registration resumed after the temporary halt was removed. On October 5, 2018, 

the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018, which formalized new conditions for recreational use of drones.12 

With the continuing registration, over 1.47 

million (new) recreational drone owners had 

already registered cumulatively with the FAA 

by end of December, 2022.13 On average, 

new owner registration stood at around 

7,866 per month during January – December 

2022 with some expected peaks during the 

holiday seasons and summer. In comparison, the year before (in 2021), average new 

owner registration stood at around 10,200 

per month during January – December. 

11 See https://bit.ly/2IfJ1cm. 12 See https://bit.ly/3zwYhJM for more details. 

13 For our estimate and projections using the registration database, applying to recreational, commercial/Part 107 and remote pilots, we use only 

those who are registered in the US and the territories for the period January – December, 2022. 

Furthermore, we draw a clear distinction between 

new registrations, cancellations, and renewals in 

this document which have been explained later 

on. 

45 
 

	 	 	 	 	 	 	

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Model/Recreation Registrations by Quarters/Year (Cumulative):

New Registrations 

Number of Active Registration in the U.S.1,600 

1,400 

1,200 

1,000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

1,469,312 

137,705 

Year/Quarter 

The current pace of new registration has de- served the year before in 2021. It is very simcreased compared to last year in the same ilar to what we observed the year before in 

period; average new monthly owner registra- 2020 (-2,500) and this trend has been contion during 2022 stood at 2,334 less than ob- tinuing over the last few years. 

46 
 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

As noted in earlier Aerospace Forecast reports, small drones are registered for 3 years 

while remote pilot (RP) certifications are valid 

for 2 years.14 Following the Taylor vs. Huerta 

ruling and the FAA’s authority over registration via NDAA, the Agency elected to extend 

the registration period, for all drones registered prior to December 12, 2017, for three 

years. Thus, December 12, 2020 marked the 

first effective renewal date. As a result of this 

sequence of events, as noted in last year’s 

report, approximately 800,000 small drone 

registrations were due for renewal in December 2020. 

The beginning of the registration renewal afforded the FAA an opportunity to analyze the 

data, including getting rid of duplicate and 

spurious registrations. Following this process, an examination of the data provided an 

opportunity for the FAA to discern the effective/active fleet more succinctly using the following five elements: Cancellations, defined 

as number of registrations canceled by user; 

Expiry, defined as the number of registrations expired (i.e., effectiveness of expiry); 

New, defined as the number of brand new 

registrations (i.e. new registration number) 

that are reported in the preceding section; 

Renew, defined as the number of registrations renewed prior to expiration; and Renew+, defined as the number of registrations 

renewed after expiration. 

Cumulative cancellations were, on average, 

17,493/month for the time period of January 

14 See https://bit.ly/2IfJ1cm; and 

https://bit.ly/2AUacmT

15 We report cumulative numbers throughout this 

document for two reasons: first, cumulative num2022 – December 2022 (or averaging around 

198 new cancellations, or the average gaps 

between the two bars in the graph below, for 

each month during the January – December 

2022 timeframe). For the years 2021-2022, 

these numbers for cumulative cancellations 

and average new monthly cancellations 

stood at 16,400 and 188, respectively:15 

bers reflect the stability of the trend over time, taking into account past changes; and second, differences between the two numbers (i.e., bars 

from the graph) capture the changes between 

two particular time periods. 

47 

Forecasts Using New Registrations vs. Effective/Active Fleet
 

- - I- I-

- -

- - I- I- I- - - I- I- I- I- - - I- I- I- I- - - I- I- I-

- - I- I- I- - - I- I- I- I- - - I- I- I- I- - - I- I- I-

- -

- -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Cumulative Cancellations 

Number of Registrations 

20,000 

18,000 

16,000 

14,000 

12,000 

10,000 

8,000 

6,000 

4,000 

2,000 

0 

We extend the data by one more year this 

year and observe that trend in cancellations 

remain the same as reported last year; cumulative cancellations, on average, stood at 

around 15,313 with new monthly cancellations at 179 during January-December, 

2021. These numbers are comparable to 

what we observe during 2022. 

On average, cumulative registrations expired 

at a rate of more than 825,000/month following the immediate and substantial adjustment in December 2020, as noted above and 

as shown below. This is equal to a little more 

than 8,192 new average expiries for each 

month during January – December 2022; 

during the years 2021-2022, it was calculated to be 8,336/month: 

48 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Cumulative Expiry 

0 

200,000 

400,000 

600,000 

800,000 

1,000,000 

Number of Registrations 

Renewal or re-registrations prior to expiry 

date has been picking up speed. From the 

year before last year’s (2021) observed 

98,984/month on a cumulative basis, this 

past year (January-December, 2022), renewals climbed up to 111,445 (or 1,170 new 

average renewals, in comparison to 712 new 

average renewals the year before for each 

month during January – December 2021). 

For the past two years (2021-2022) as a 

whole, 105,215/month renewed on a cumulative basis with new average renewals 

standing at around 941/month. This was almost three times higher than Renew+ on a 

cumulative basis, as reported below: 

49 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Cumulative Renew 

0 

20,000 

40,000 

60,000 

80,000 

100,000 

120,000 

Number of Registrations 

Renew+, re-registrations after expiry date, 950 new average Renew+ registrations for 

logged on cumulative average of each month during January – December 

42,369/month during January-December, 2022 and are reported in below: 

2022. This is equivalent to approximately 

Cumulative Renew+ 

50,000 

45,000 

Number of Registrations 40,000 

35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

50 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

For the two years (2021-2022) in aggregate, A summary of the above 4 charts is provided 

cumulative renewal+ stood at 35,877/month in below to narrate the relative contributions 

with new renewals+ at 1,365/month. of cancellations, expiry, renew and renew+: Number of Registrations 

1,000,000 

900,000 

800,000 

700,000 

600,000 

500,000 

400,000 

300,000 

200,000 

100,000 

0 

Expiry, Cancellations, and Renewal/Renewal+ during 2021-2022: 

Recreationals/model 

 

 

 

 

 

 

L L L L L L L L_ L_ L_ L_ L L_ L L_ L L_ L L_ L L_ L L_ ~ 

■ Cumulative Cancellations ■ Cumulative Expiry ■ ■ 

As noted from the above discussion, relative 

contributions of individual elements remain 

the same over the past two years with cumulative expiry contributing the most. 

We calculate active/effective fleet using the 

five elements. Calculating active/effective 

registrations for a particular day requires calculating the “net gain/loss” of registrations for 

each preceding day; and then adding them 

together with the given day (i.e. calculating 

the running sum). 

The following are the contributions16 of each 

element to the day's net gain/loss calculations:17 

 Cancel: (-1 for each registration);

16 We attribute this methodology of calculations to 

the UAS Integration Office (AUS), provided internally to facilitate last two year’s forecasts. 

17 For cumulative new registration trends, see the 

final graph preceding this section. 

Cumulative Renew Cumulative Renew+ 

 Expire: (-1 for each registration);

 New: (+1 for each registration)

 Renew: (0); and

 Renew+:(+1 for each registration)18 

An example of this calculation may be constructed as follows: calculating the net 

gain/loss for recreational registration for August 9, 2022 (an arbitrary date, same as reported last year), where Cancel = 7; Expiry = 

344; New = 307; Renew = 44; and Renew+ 

= 32 were reported for recreational operators/modelers. 

Thus, Net Gain/Loss for August 9, 2022 = 

7 X (-1) + 344 X (-1) + 

18 It is important to note here that renew+ is a replacement for cancellation on a one-on-one basis. 

51 
 

 

 

 

-

-

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

307 X (1) + 44 X (0) + 

32 X (+1) = -12 

Finally, a comparison chart capturing the difference between cumulative new registrations and. effective/active registrations, using 

cumulative net gain/loss for recreational registrations, is provided below covering the entire period of 2021-2022:19 

1,600,000 

1,400,000 

1,200,000 

1,000,000 

800,000 

600,000 

400,000 

200,000 

0 

New Registrations versus Net Gain (cumulative): 

Model/Recreational 

Cumulative New Registrations 

Cumulative Net Gain 

2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 

Recreational registration, and thus ownership of small drones, is distributed throughout the country. Using the data available in 

December 2022, the spatial distribution of 

recreational ownership by zip codes (shown 

2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4 

below) demonstrates that small drones continue to be distributed throughout the US, 

with denser ownership mapping closely to 

the population centers or densities of the zip 

codes, as expected. 

19 There are two important aspects making the 

difference: (a) the base; and (b) the rate of 

change in two lines. For cumulative net gain/loss, 

the base is highly influenced by substantial expiry 

and cancellations implemented in December 

2020, as discussed above; the rates of change 

(or slope) of the cumulative net gain/loss line is 

influenced by these two elements plus new registrations and Renew+ re-registrations. In comparison, new registration counted cumulatively has 

substantial base thus accounting for the difference between the two lines while new monthly 

registrations is the primary factor driving the rate 

of change for cumulative new registrations line. 

52 
Registrations by Calendar Year (Hobby) 

Reglatratlona 

by ZJp Code 

2022 

.. ) 

··• 10-17 

11-2' 

27->t 

... 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

At present, recreational ownership registration does not correspond one-to-one with aircraft. Unlike their commercial non-model 

counterpart, the registration rules for recreational operators do not require owners of recreational small drones to register each individual aircraft; only operators are registered. 

For each registration, therefore, one or more 

aircraft may be owned. In some instances, 

there is no equipment associated with registration. Free registration at the initial phase 

may have incentivized some to create a registration without any equipment to report. 

Notwithstanding these challenges, there is 

information available, both from industry and 

academia and surveys, allowing us to understand aircraft ownership. Furthermore, as a 

result of robust strategic drone research 

planning, the FAA has launched various research activities to understand the possible 

magnitude of the sector as well as implications for likely aircraft that may be used for 

recreational flying, as well as the safety impacts on the small drone fleet from gradual 

integration into the NAS. Finally, the Agency 

has incorporated outside analysis and 

launched surveys to understand the magnitude of the sector including forecasting efforts. 

As noted in earlier annual reports, forecasts 

of small drones were based primarily on new 

registrations without considering the effective/active fleet for reasons described in the 

beginning of the section (e.g., lack of renewals required; and expiry/cancellations were 

not imposed). However, now that data on elements leading to calculate net gain/loss 

(i.e., via expiry, cancellations, new registration and renewals) are available, more granular forecasts can be made, particularly the 

lower bound, using the calculation of effective or active fleet. With over 1.47 million new 

recreational operators cumulatively registered as of December 2022, the FAA estimates that there are approximately 1.69 million sUAS in the fleet distinctly identified as 

recreational aircraft. Comparing with industry 

sales and other data noted earlier, we conclude that the number of recreational aircraft 

53 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

is almost 15% higher than ownership registration.20 Applying cumulative net gain/loss 

calculations from above, the effective/active 

fleet is estimated to be around 612,220 as of 

December 2022. This provides us the lower 

bound of effective/active fleet of recreational 

small drones in the NAS. 

A comparison of last year’s data (2021) with 

this year’s (2022) shows the annual growth 

rate for new registration to be approximately 

6.7%, a drop from the year before (10.2%). 

Nevertheless, the increasing trend was possible due to the continuation of drones playing a dominant role in recreation, a continuation facilitated by decreasing equipment 

prices (e.g., average price of $750 or less), 

improved technology such as built-in cameras and higher capability sensors, and relatively easy maneuvering. Nevertheless, similar to all technologies fueling growth of 

hobby or recreational items, (e.g., cell phone 

and video game consoles, and prior to that, 

video cameras and video players), the trend 

in recreational small drone ownership registration has been slowing. It is likely to slow 

down further as the pace of falling prices diminishes and the early adopters begin to experience limits in their experiments, or simply 

because recreational eagerness plateaus. 

20 This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of aircraft corresponding to ownership registration. As aircraft become sturdier and operators more situationally 

aware, this rate has been changing and we expect it to change dynamically over time. Assumptions tying ownership to aircraft holding and issues related to compliance have been discussed 

[See https://bit.ly/3U73HEC for a recent study by 

the National Academy of Public Administration on 

these issues.] 

21 These forecasts have two dimensions worth 

emphasizing. When looked at from the cumulative base, “total” captures the number of drones 

Given trends in registration and market developments, the FAA forecasts that the recreational small drone market will saturate at 

around 1.82 million units over the next five 

years.21,

22 However, there is still some upside uncertainty due to further changes in 

technology, including battery life, faster integration from a regulatory standpoint, and the 

likely event of continued decreasing prices. 

This leads to upside possibilities in the forecast of as many as 1.89 million units by 2027. 

In contrast, there are some low-side uncertainties, chief among them is the lack of renewal (i.e., before and after expiry dates), followed by expiry and cancellations. The inertia, loss of interests, or lack of recreational 

opportunities may be key factors leading to 

the observed trends in renewal. Nevertheless, if renewals are kept up over time, effective/active fleet would likely converge to base 

forecasts, i.e., derived from cumulative new 

registrations combined with multiplicity of 

craft ownership. In the presence of slower renewal tendency, as data presently indicates, 

it is likely that the effective/active fleet will be 

lower than that derived from base forecasts. 

This provides the FAA with an opportunity to 

derive low-side forecasts using effective/active fleet calculations. Nonetheless, low-side 

uncertainty growth trajectory (i.e., annual 

growth rates) tracks closer to the base forecast. A forecast base (i.e., likely), together 

that are reported to be in the system (i.e., base 

and high); while “effective/active fleet” refers to 

how many aircraft are presently operating in the 

system (i.e., low).

22 As we extend the forecast time period by a year 

from 2026 to 2027 for rolling 5-year projections, 

the sector is expected to expand by around 

16,000 from what we forecasted last year for 

1.8075 million in 2026 to 1.8234 million in 2027. 

54 
 

 

               

                 

       

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

with high and low scenarios, is provided in 

the table below:23 

Total Recreation/Model Fleet (Million sUAS Units)

Fiscal Year Low* Base** High** 

Historical 

2022 0.6122 1.6885 1.6885 

Forecast 

2023 0.6205 1.7502 1.7622 

2024 0.6393 1.7854 1.8158 

2025 0.6548 1.8035 1.8520 

2026 0.6634 1.8149 1.8757 

2027 0.6685 1.8234 1.8918 

*: Effective/Active fleet counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership.

**: New registration counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership.

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the recreational small drone sector would have 

around 1.6965 million drones in 2022 in base 

case, a growth rate exceeding 7.2% from the 

year before (2021). Actual data for 2022 using new registration came in lower by 8,000 

units with around 1.6885 million units accounted for by the end of 2022. Thus, our 

forecast of recreational small drones last 

year overshot by -0.47% for 2022, (or 1.6885 

million actual aircraft vs 1.6965 million aircraft projected last year). In contrast, our last 

year’s forecast of low scenario stood at 

around 650,900 for 2022. In reality, actual 

data came to be 612,200 (or around 39,000 

lower). Thus, our forecast of lower range last 

year overshot actual by over 6%. 

23 As noted earlier, low scenario reports effective/active fleet using a net gain/loss calculation. 

By definition, low scenario differs from base and 

The FAA uses the trends observed in registrations, particularly over the past year; calculation of net gain/loss (described above) 

this year; information from the survey conducted in 2018 and ongoing this year; expert 

opinions distilled from Transportation Research Board annual workshops; review of 

available industry forecasts; market/industry 

research; and time-series models fitted on 

monthly data underlying annual data reported in the above table. These apply to all 

three elements reported above: low, base, 

and high forecasts. Using these, the FAA 

forecasts that the recreational small drone 

fleet will likely (i.e., base scenario) attain its 

peak over the next 5 years, from the present 

1.69 million units now to approximately 1.82 

million units by 2027 thus attaining cumulative annual growth rate of 1.6% during 2022-

2027. 

high scenarios, which are based on new registrations only. Hence, a low scenario counting of fleet 

for the year 2022 is markedly different than the 

baseline and high scenario for the same year. 

55 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Following a similar growth trajectory as the 

base, there will be approximately 668,500 

active/effective small drones over the next 

five years in 2027, which is now the low forecast for recreational/model small drones. 

This ensures a cumulative annual growth 

rate of 1.8% during 2022-2027. Active/effective fleet count is derived and projected 

based on the net gain/loss calculation discussed above. The high scenario, on the 

other hand, may reach as high as 1.89 million 

units (or, 2.3% cumulative annual growth 

rate). High scenario projection is based on 

the trends in base forecast. 

Notice that eventual saturation at somewhat 

higher levels, in comparison to last year’s 

projections, reflects slightly higher new registration by recreational flyers observed during 2022 and extension of the forecast project by a year. The increased new registration trend, in part driven by COVID-19, may 

The Recreational UAS Safety Test (TRUST) 

Under the most recent (2018) reauthorization 

bill,25 new requirements for recreational pilots have been introduced [See P.L. 115-254 

– exception for limited recreational operations of unmanned aircraft]. TRUST is the

safety test for recreational/model small

drones operators. It provides education and

testing for recreational flyers on important

24 It is quite likely that many users are buying and 

experimenting with recreational small drones 

given the COVID-19 public health emergency and 

the substantial portion of the workers presently 

working from home. This trend may or may not 

continue once regular work patterns resume. 

25 See https://bit.ly/2pAYYxG. 26 See https://bit.ly/3K3MF5Q for more details. 

or may not continue in the longer run.24 In 

comparison, low side forecasts assume the 

present trend in renewals combined with new 

registration followed by similar expiry and 

cancellations. Nevertheless, the growth rates 

underlying these numbers are fairly steady in 

the initial years, but fade faster in the last two 

to three years. The gradual saturation that is 

projected in five years and beyond in the recreational small drone fleet parallels other 

consumer technology products and the 

Agency’s projections from last few years, 

particularly with respect to base and high 

forecasts. However, both the numbers and 

the growth trajectory for the low scenario 

(i.e., effective/active fleet) are fundamentally 

different than years earlier than the past couple years for reasons described above. Nevertheless, it provides a lower bound that is 

likely to be closer to reality in terms of small 

drones that are in use and operationally effective in the NAS. 

safety and regulatory information. All recreational flyers must pass an aeronautical 

knowledge and safety test and provide proof 

of test passage – the TRUST completion certificate — to the FAA or law enforcement 

upon request.26 By December 2022, more 

than 385,000 recreational flyers completed 

TRUST certification subsequent to its inception in June 2021.27 

27 It is important to note here that almost 63% of 

effective or active model/recreational aircraft users of sUAS (i.e., 612,220) are registered under 

TRUST in 2022. TRUST registration is only 

around a quarter (23%) with respect to base registered model/recreational users (i.e., 1.69 millions). 

56 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs. Effective/Active Fleet 

Online registration for commercial/nonmodel small drones went into effect on April 

1, 2016. Unlike recreational/model ownership, rules for commercial registration require owners to register each small drone, 

thus creating a one-to-one correspondence 

between registration and aircraft. During the 

period of January – December 2022, more 

than 105,000 commercial operators registered their new equipment. The pace of 

monthly registration, around 8,750, is higher 

than monthly registrations during 2021, 

which was approximately 8,500. The pace of 

new registrations is picking up speed slightly 

in comparison with 2021 and prior years. 

(From April 2016 – December 2021 there 

were roughly 8,850 new registrations per 

month). As the pace of recreational registration has increased somewhat, particularly 

last year, the pace of new registration for the 

commercial counterparts has followed suit, 

with almost 727,000 commercial drones cumulatively registered since April 2016. 

Non-Model Registrations of sUAS Aircraft by

Quarters/Year (Cumulative) 

Number of Active Non-Model 

Registration in the U.S. 

800,000 

700,000 

600,000 

500,000 

400,000 

300,000 

200,000 

100,000 

0 

726,936 

12,093 

For each month the registration has been 

available, over 4,600 new aircraft per month 

were registered until December 2017. This 

pace accelerated to 14,600 new registrations 

per month during 2018. During 2019, average monthly new registrations stood at approximately 10,100. During the year of 2020, 

Year/Quarter 

average monthly registration dropped to 

7,850, while during 2021, average monthly 

registrations jumped by 650 to around 8,500. 

During the last year of 2022, average 

monthly registration again jumped by 250 to 

around 8,750. The commercial small drone 

sector is dynamic and appears to be at an 

inflection point, demonstrating powerful 

57 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

stages of growth. Unlike the recreational 

small drone sector, the FAA anticipates that 

the growth rate in this sector will remain high 

over the next few years. This is primarily 

driven by the regulatory clarity that Part 107 

continues to provide to industry. In particular, 

the operations over people final rule, published on December 28, 2020, is the latest 

incremental step towards further integration 

of small drones into the NAS. This final rule 

allows routine operations over people and 

routine operations at night under certain circumstances, and eliminates the need for individual Part 107 waivers.28 Beginning in 

April 2021, routine nightly operations were 

approved under the conditions of remote pilot in command completing knowledge test or 

online recurrent training; and sUAS having 

lighted anti-collision visible for at least 3 statute miles. 

Furthermore, the Remote ID rule was announced on December 28, 2020.29 Upon adjudicating numerous comments from stakeholders, the final rule30 was published in the 

Federal Register on January 15, 2021 with 

an original effective date of March 16, 2021. 

Corrections made to the rule and published 

in the Federal Register on March 10, 2021 

delayed the effective date to April 21, 2021. 

Remote ID (i.e., digital license-plate) of remotely piloted aircraft is necessary to ensure 

public safety and efficiency of US airspace. 

The rule applies to all operators of small 

drones that require FAA registration (i.e., 

both recreational and Part 107). Remote ID 

provides airspace awareness to the FAA, national security agencies, law enforcement 

entities, and other government officials. In 

accordance with the requirements of the present rule, remotely piloted aircraft in flight are 

28 See https://bit.ly/3ZGumJC for more details. 

29 See https://bit.ly/3K9wSCv. 30 See https://bit.ly/3MfupZS for more details. 

to provide, via broadcast, certain identification, location, and performance information 

that can be received by interested parties on 

the ground and by other airspace users. 

There are three ways to comply with the remote ID rule: (a) operate a standard remote 

ID small drone broadcasting identification 

and location information of both the aircraft 

and control station; (b) operate a small drone 

with a remote ID broadcast module attached 

to it that broadcasts identification, location 

and take-off information; and (c) operate a 

small drone without remote ID at specific 

FAA-recognized identification areas (or 

FRIAs). As noted, almost all of the final rule 

on remote ID became effective on April 21, 

2021. The subpart covering the process for 

FRIA applications from community-based organizations and educational institutions became effective on September 16, 2022. 

Drone manufacturer compliance with the final rule’s requirements is set to become effective on September 16, 2022 as well. Finally, all drone pilots must meet the operating requirements of part 89 by September, 

2023.31 For most operators this will mean flying a Standard Remote ID Drone, equipping 

with a broadcast module, or flying at a FRIA. 

Together, these rules provide much-needed 

regulatory clarity and reduce the need for 

waivers under Part 107. With enhancement 

of operational efficiencies under increasingly 

well-defined concepts of operations (CONOPS)—which ensures safety and transparent information flow across the community— 

more and more commercial uses will become likely, fueling even further growth. Notably, as a central location for receiving all 

31 See https://bit.ly/3KaZQln for more details. 

58 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

operational information, including registration, authorization, and accident report logs 

the DroneZone has helped further facilitate 

this growth.32 

As noted in the preceding section, the beginning of the registration renewal afforded the 

FAA an opportunity to review Part 107 data; 

duplicates and unnecessary registrations 

were removed, and the registration database 

was made cleaner and more compact. As in 

the case of recreational/model aircraft, an 

examination of the data provides an opportunity to discern the effective/active fleet 

more accurately using the following five elements introduced earlier: Cancellations; Expiry; New; Renew; and Renew+. It is worth 

mentioning here that, prior to having access 

to these five elements, forecasts in the past 

were based only on new registration trends. 

An average of 75,750 cancellations per 

month, on a cumulative basis, were reported 

during January – December 2022, as shown 

below. The trend in cumulative cancellations 

went up by over 20,000 from the year before. 

This is an average of approximately 1,743 

new cancellations for each month of 2022. 

Number of Registrations 

90,000 

80,000 

70,000 

60,000 

50,000 

40,000 

30,000 

20,000 

10,000 

0 

Cumulative Cancellations 

(This equals approximately 7,812 new aver- An average of 305,000 expirations per month age expiries for each month during January– was reported on a cumulative basis between December 2022): January–December 2022 as shown below. 

32 See https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/. 

59 
I"""" I- - ~ I- - ~ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Cumulative Expiry 

0 

50,000 

100,000 

150,000 

200,000 

250,000 

300,000 

350,000 

Number of Registrations 

Renew or re-registration prior to expiry date 

accelerated, on average, to almost 

35,000/month on a cumulative basis (or a 

two and half times increase from the year before) during January–December 2022 (or 

1,543 new average renewals): 

Number of Registrations 

Cumulative Renew 

45,000 

40,000 

35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

Similar to renewals, “Renew+” (i.e., re-regis- 20,216/month on a cumulative basis. This is 

an average of 784 new Renew+ each month trations after expiry), logged at a rate much during January–December 2022, as reported higher than last year to an average below: 

60 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Cumulative Renew+ 

Number of Registrations 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

 

 

- ... ... - - -

- - ,_ ,_ ,_ ... ... ... ... - - -

- .... .... - - - - - - ,_ ,_ ,_ .... .... .... - - - -

- - ,_ ,_ .... .... ... - - - - - - ,_ ,_ ,_ .... ... ... - - - -

T T T T T 

As in the case of recreational/model registrations, calculating active/effective registrations for a particular day requires calculating 

the “net gain/loss” of registrations for each 

preceding day and adding them with the particular day (i.e. calculating the running sum). 

Using the formulation described in the example in the preceding section, we can derive 

the net gain/loss for Part 107 data as well. 

A summary of the above 4 charts is provided 

in below to relate the relative contributions of 

cancellations, expiry, renew and renew+: 

61 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Expiry, Cancellations, and Renewal/Renewal+ during 2021-2022: 

Non-Model/Part 107 

Number of Registrations 

400,000 

350,000 

300,000 

250,000 

200,000 

150,000 

100,000 

50,000 

0 

 

I I I I I I I I I I I I 

I J _I _I _I ... I .. .. l .. l .J. II. 

■ Cumulative Cancellations ■ Cumulative Expiry ■ Cumulative Renew ■ Cumulative Renew+ 

gain/loss for Part 107 registration is provided A comparison chart capturing the difference in below: 

between cumulative new registrations vs. effective/active registrations using net 

62 
- -

UAS Registrations by Calendar Year (Part 107) 

,o 

Regi5tralions by Zip Code 

2022 

• • 1 

, .. S · 10 

11 • 21 ,._., 

,., 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

New Registrations versus Net Gain (cumulative): 

Non-Model/Part 107

800,000 

700,000 

600,000 

500,000 

400,000 

300,000 

200,000 

100,000 

0 

2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 2022:Q1 2022:Q2 2022:Q3 2022:Q4 

Cumulative New Registrations 

Cumulative Net Gain 

commercial small drones are distributed 

As in the case of recreational drone owner- throughout the country, with denser activity ship, commercial small drones are distrib- mapping closely against the economic or uted across the country. A spatial distribution commercial activities of the geographical ar- of equipment registration by zip codes (using eas. 

data for December 2022) demonstrates that 

63 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

. 

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the commercial drone sector would include approximately 699,000 small drones in 2022 in base 

case, a growth rate exceeding 12% over the 

year before (2021). Actual data came in 

around 727,000 aircraft by the end of 2022. 

Our forecast of commercial small drones last 

year thus undershot (around -4%) for 2022 

(or 726,936 actual aircraft vs 699,379 projected aircraft). In low case, FAA forecasted 

last year 292,000 units to be effective/active 

for the year 2022; but in reality, the number 

came to be around 328,000 thus undershooting the lower case by -11%. Forecasting in a 

time of tremendous uncertainty is indeed 

challenging, especially given the economic 

slowdown during COVID-19 and its impact 

on the drone sector. The commercial small 

drone sector’s fast growth and adjustments 

during the pandemic demonstrate that fact. 

Nevertheless, our forecast errors for both 

recreation and commercial small drones appear to be within the bounds of reasonableness. 

Total Commercial/Non‐Model Fleet (Thousand sUAS Units)

Fiscal Year Low* Base** High** 

   

             

       

 

 

Historical 

2022 328 727 727 

Forecast 

2023 349 805 807 

2024 364 862 867 

2025 373 904 915 

2026 378 933 966 

2027 382 955 1015 

*: Effective/Active fleet counts;

**: New registration counts based on fleet counts;

The FAA uses the trends observed in registration during previous years, calculation of 

net gain/loss, information from the survey 

conducted in 2018 and again this year, a review of available industry forecasts/workshops and past FAA Drone Symposiums, 

and internal research together with mar33 See https://bit.ly/432Gxn5. 34 Last year, the ratio of end-year forecast to 

base-year forecast was 1.38-times. That is, the 

FAA forecasted end-year to be 1.38 time base 

ket/industry and academic research undertaken by ASSURE, an FAA Center of Excellence (or COE).33 Using these and with the 

help of a time series model fitted onto the 

monthly data, the FAA forecasts that the 

commercial drone fleet will likely (i.e., base 

scenario) be at around 955,000 by 2027. 

This is 1.31 times larger than the current 

number of new commercial small drones.34 

year’s (2021) numbers in 5-year (2026). Higher 

forecasts are often the result of improved regula64 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Using low or effective/active fleet, the FAA 

forecasts an expansion of the small drone 

fleet by 54,000, 1.16 times larger than the 

currently calculated effective/active fleet of 

around 328,000 units.35 As the present base 

(i.e., the cumulative total) increases, the FAA 

anticipates the growth rate of the sector will 

slow down over time, and the effective/active 

fleet will likely catch up with the growth trajectory of new registrations. Nevertheless, 

the sector will be much larger than what was 

understood only a few years earlier. 

In order to understand the growth trajectory 

of the sector better, this report divides the 

commercial drone sector into two types of 

small drone aircraft: consumer grade and 

professional grade. Consumer-grade commercial drones have a wide range of prices, 

below US $10,000 with an average unit price 

of approximately $2,500. The professional 

grade, on the other hand, is typically priced 

above US $10,000 with an average unit price 

assumed to be around $25,000.36 For both 

consumer-grade and professional-grade 

drones, the average price has fallen over 

time, particularly over the last few years. Currently, the consumer grade dominates the 

commercial drone sector, with a market 

share approaching 90%. However, as the 

sector matures and the industry begins to 

consolidate, the share of consumer grade 

commercial drones is likely to decline, 

though it will still be dominant. 

Unlike its recreational small drone counterpart, it is extremely difficult to put a floor on 

the growth of the commercial small drone 

sector due to its composition (i.e., consumer 

tory environments, as noted below, and environments following the process of rule-making evaluation (See fn. #30-33 for these). 

35 This is driven by the combined effects of projected underlying growth rates of cancellations, 

expiry, new registrations, and renewals. 

vs. professional grades) and the varying 

business opportunities and growth paths. As 

commercial small drones become operationally more efficient and safe, battery life expands, and integration continues (e.g., recent final rule involving operations over people; and remote ID), new business models 

will begin to develop, thus enhancing robust 

supply-side responses. These responses, in 

turn, will pull demand forces (e.g., consumer 

responses to receiving commercial packages, routine blood delivery to hospitals, and 

search-and-rescue operations) that are 

somewhat latent and in the experimental 

stage at present. Unlike a developed sector 

such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to put a marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core demand) primarily driven by 

economic and demographic factors underlying this sector. Nevertheless, in this year’s 

forecast the FAA makes a provisional attempt to provide a “low” side for now, essentially capturing the intrinsic demand and 

making use of the calculation of effective/active fleet. In addition, we provide the likely or 

base scenario, together with the enormous 

potential embodied in the “high” scenarios, 

representing cumulative annual growth rates 

of 6% and 7%, respectively. As noted earlier, 

low scenarios are driven by two positive factors (i.e., new registration and renew+) and 

two negative factors (i.e., cancellations and 

expiry). Average annual growth rate corresponding to the low scenario is determined 

by the combined effect of both positive and 

negative factors; and presently calculated to 

be approximately 3.1%. This is much smaller 

than both base (5.6%) and high scenarios 

36 Because of this wide range in prices between 

types of small drones in commercial activities, 

start-up costs for a business may vary between 

$2,500 and $25,000. 

65 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

(6.9%) and this is because effective/active 

count is driven to catch up with the new registrations trend.37 

Commercial small drones are currently used 

for numerous purposes. As the sector grows, 

the FAA anticipates there will be many more 

uses for, and much more use of, commercial 

small drones. This is increasingly evident, for 

example, from the continuing implementation 

of UAS traffic management system (UTM),38 

successful implementation of the UAS Integration Pilot Program (IPP),39 and continuation in BEYOND.40 

As Part 107 sub-provisions are relaxed, it is 

important to identify trends in commercial 

small drone via analysis of the remaining 

waiver applications granted to small drone 

operators. Both the magnitude and relative 

composition of waiver types may indicate the 

direction of the commercial small drone sector as a whole. A breakdown of the waiver 

requests (i.e., approved, disapproved or denied, and cancelled due to lack of information 

primarily or withdrawn) aggregated for January-December 2022 is shown in the chart below: 

5,000 

4,500 

4,000 

3,500 

3,000 

2,500 

2,000 

1,500 

1,000 

500 

0 

DroneZone Top 5 Requested Provisions 

(as of end of December 2022) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

Disapproved Cancelled Approved 

Operational Limitation: Altitude (Flights over 400 feet) 

BVLOS Operations 

Operational Limitation: Minimum Distrance from Clouds 

Operations from a Moving Vehicle 

Visual Observer 

37 See prior footnotes for similar explanation per- 39 See https://bit.ly/2O4tzPP for more details. 

taining to effective/active count for recreational 40 See https://bit.ly/3nKAOlK. We provided a deregistration. tailed analysis of BEYOND program in last year’s 

38 See https://bit.ly/3KucgX4 document. 

66 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Beyond the daytime operation and operations over people that are presently allowed 

under existing Part 107 rules, expanding applications further requires waivers, to a large 

extent, for numerous other operations involving BVLOS, flying over 400’ AGL, etc. 

BVLOS waiver requests (around 14% of total 

requests as like the year before) and limitations on altitude (around 14% of total requests; an increase of 3% from last year) accounting for almost 28% of all waiver requests submitted. Waiver requests are 

granted at a rate of 23% and 30% (i.e., approvals in comparison to submitted requests) 

for flying over 400’ AGL and BVLOS, respectively. 

Waivers are issued to facilitate business activities by small drones while preparing for 

the next round of regulations that will enable 

routine more complex drone operations. Now 

that night operations and operations over 

people have been finalized,41 amending Title 

14 of the Code of Federal Regulations Part 

107 (14 CFR Part 107) by permitting the routine operation of small drones at night42 or 

over people under certain conditions,43 the 

Agency is turning its focus to long term solutions that will eventually enable routine 

BVLOS fights without waivers.44 Analysis of 

the waiver applications allows the FAA to understand industry needs and priorities, one of 

many metrics essential for understanding 

trends of the sector and projecting the growth 

trajectory and course corrections over time. 

Airspace authorizations have been growing 

over time as shown in the chart below. While 

airspace authorizations have been growing 

consistently since 2019, at an average annual rate exceeding 10%, operations waivers 

have been declining over the years. Nearly 

60% of airspace authorizations and waiver 

requests have been approved for controlled 

airspace at the end of December 2022. 

41 The rule was published in the Federal Register 

on January 15, 2021. Corrections to the final rule 

were published in the Federal Register on March 

10, 2021, delaying the effective date from March 

16, 2021 to April 21, 2021 [See 

https://bit.ly/3ztaC1w].

42 See § 107.29. An operation at night was defined as an operation conducted between the end 

of evening civil twilight and the beginning of morning civil twilight, as published in the Air Almanac, 

converted to local time (ibid).

43 See § 107.39. An operation over people was 

established as one in which a small remotely piloted aircraft passes over any part of any person 

who is not directly participating in the operation 

and who is not located under a covered structure 

or inside a stationary vehicle.

44 On June 9, 2021, the FAA initiated an Aviation 

Rulemaking Committee (ARC) to facilitate 

BVLOS in the NAS. [See https://bit.ly/3Kduevw 

for details.] On March 10, 2022, UAS BVLOS 

ARC provided recommendations to the FAA for 

performance-based regulatory requirements to 

normalize safe, scalable, economically viable, 

and environmentally advantageous BVLOS 

drone operations that are not under positive air 

traffic control (ATC) [see https://bit.ly/3Mis6Wc 

for the final report] 

67 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Airspace Authorizations and Operations Waivers over Time 

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 

Airspace Authorizations Operations Waivers 

While over half continue to be for Class D air- granted and regularly flown as reported in 

space (i.e., smaller airports with control tow- the chart below: 

ers), other classes were also requested, 

Airspace Authorizations by

Classes of Airspace 

0 

5,000 

10,000 

15,000 

20,000 

25,000 

30,000 

35,000 

40,000 

■ ■ 

Class B 

7,028 

Class C 

Class D 6,655

18,404 

Class E 

2,895 

Finally, LAANC has been routinely providing 

auto-approval since its inception in May 

2017, and now covers 545 airports with UAS 

68 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Facility Maps or UASFM45 enabled at 740 airports. It has provided over 1.465 million approvals: 809,727 auto-approvals for airspace 

access requests from Part 107 users, and 

514,326 requests from recreational operators as defined by 49 U.S.C. §4480946 and 

sending 141,717 for further coordination.47 

Approvals thus total 1,465,770, around 

465,000 more since this time last year. 

LAANC authorizations are facilitated by the 

use of UASFM that provide maximum allowed altitudes around airports where the 

FAA may authorize Part 107 UAS operations 

without additional safety analysis.48 The UAS 

facility maps are used to inform requests for 

Part 107 airspace authorizations and waivers 

in controlled airspace. 

LAANC Authorization Types 

44809 AutoApproved

175,575 

Further 

Coordination 

41,820 

107 AutoApproved

282,411 

2022 Survey and Preliminary Results 

The FAA has strived to develop a better understanding of the flight characteristics and 

operations of sUAS across the United 

States. Unlike commercial aviation, which 

has statutory reporting requirements, sUAS 

operate mostly outside of airports or other 

fixed infrastructure and are free to operate 

without reporting activities to aviation authorities while in uncontrolled space. As such, little is known about the general operations of 

45 See https://bit.ly/3KwWOtj. 46 §44809 is strictly for recreational uses. See 

https://bit.ly/3zvW6pL. 47 Activity reported below is for the calendar year 

of 2022: January 1-December 2022. 

Total: 499,806 

sUAS, which has hindered the FAA efforts to 

effectively integrate sUAS into the NAS. 

In an attempt to improve the FAA’s understanding of sUAS activities, following on earlier similar effort, the FAA has developed and 

conducted a survey of sUAS operators. This 

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) 

approved survey information collection 

started with a baseline and pre-tests for 

sUAS activities in 2021 and the survey for 

48 See https://bit.ly/3K2hFmA. 

69 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

sUAS activity in 2022. The survey design is 

a stratified, random sample of sUAS operators with type of operator, recreational or Part 

107, and geography, U.S. County, as the 

strata. The survey frame was constructed 

from the recreational sUAS and the Part 107 

registries.49 A total 65,734 invitations were 

sent to sUAS registrants: 41,624 recreational 

registrants and 24,110 Part 107 registrants, 

located in over 2,100 U.S. counties and constituting roughly 30% of active sUAS registrants.50 The survey for 2022 sUAS activity 

was opened on December 1st, 2022 and 

closed on February 1st, 2023. Follow-up reminder emails were sent out periodically 

based on the population until the final week 

of the 2022 survey. 

Overall, 30.3% of invited registrants responded to the 2022 survey. Recreational 

registrants were slightly more likely to respond with a 34% response rate. This was 

up sharply from the 24% response rate in the 

2021 survey baseline.51 Part 107 registrants 

were relatively less likely to respond with a 

23% response rate. This was only a marginal 

49 As noted earlier, 49 U.S. Code § 44809 requires recreational sUAS aircraft systems operators to register with the FAA. In addition, 14 CFR 

Part 107 requires non-recreational operators to 

register with the FAA. UAS operators must register with one of these registers at FAA’s 

https://bit.ly/41328Kr and paper forms are no 

longer available. 

50 The survey design is a stratified random sample of registered operators. The strata are the 

registries and the U.S. county in which the operator is domiciled. Each county had 30 registrants 

randomly selected to receive an invitation to the 

survey. If the number of registrants in the county 

are fewer than 30, all registrants in the county 

were sent an invitation. For more information, a 

survey supplement is available upon request.

51 The baseline survey was an initial survey design and questionnaire to establish a baseline understanding of the UAS community. The baseline 

was used to determine if test surveys, controlled 

deviations in the survey design and questionnaire 

improvement from the 22% response rate of 

the 2021 baseline survey. Several improvements in the survey campaign contributed to 

the improved response rate, including an improved survey frame, better design of reminder emails, and improved coordination 

the FAA sUAS help desk. However, improved community knowledge of the FAA’s 

survey of sUAS operators from conducting 

the 2021 baseline survey was likely part of 

the improvement as well. Of the invited registrants who did not respond, 4.6% had unreachable email addresses and an additional 

4.6% had opted out of receiving emails from 

Survey Monkey while the reasons for the remainder of the non-responses are unknown.52 

The Survey of sUAS operators used a questionnaire distributed by Survey Monkey to 

collect responses from selected, registered 

sUAS operators.53 The questionnaire consisted of 6 required questions as well as 71 

optional, administrative, or additional questions based on the respondents’ answers or 

from the baseline design, had a significant effect 

on responses to the questionnaires. More information is available via survey supplement. 

52 Survey Monkey allows individuals to place their 

email addresses on a no-contact list. When Survey Monkey distributes email invitations through 

their system, emails on the no-contact list are filtered out and noted for their survey administrators. More information is available via survey supplement.

53 Survey Monkey [see https://bit.ly/3McSikL] is 

approved by the Government Services Administration (GSA) and provides a fast and cost effective method for designing, deploying, and organizing questionnaire. Given the internet-based 

registration for sUAS operators, an internetbased questionnaire, such as Survey Monkey, 

was best suited for this population. More information is available via survey supplement. 

70 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

the registry in which the respondent was active.54 Given that many operators use their 

sUAS for several purposes, selected Part 

107 registrants were asked to report only on 

non-recreational activity while selected recreational registrants were asked to report 

only on recreational activity. All selected registrants were given the opportunity to participate in the survey by completing the questionnaire, opt out of the current year’s survey, 

or be permanently removed from future survey invitation lists.55 Of those that responded 

to the invitation email, 94% agreed to participate, 3% opted out of the survey for 2022, 

and 3% requested that the FAA permanently 

remove them from the FAA’s survey list.56 

One of the questions was a self-report on the 

type of sUAS operator the respondent considered themselves. Respondents were 

given the multiple-selection options of business, emergency response, non-emergency 

government, university/non-profit, and recreational as well as a fill-in “other” category. For 

respondents from the recreational registry, 

98.1% of the respondent self-identified as 

recreational operators. Of those who selfidentified as recreational operators, 5.8% 

also selected at least one non-recreational 

category. Of the 1.9% of operators who did 

not self-identify as recreational operators, 

70% reported uses better suited for Part 107 

and the 30% were protests or misinterpretations of the word “recreational”. 

For respondents from the Part 107 registry, 

over a third of respondents (35.1%) identified 

as recreational only operators. Just under 

two-thirds (62.4%) of respondents reported 

either business, emergency response, nonemergency government, or university/nonprofit uses. Of those identifying as a non-recreational operator, 61% reported operating 

their sUAS for only business or for-hire reasons while operators reporting only emergency response, university/nonprofit, or nonemergency government made up 10%, 7%, 

and 5%, respectively. The remaining 17% of 

non-recreational operators reported a combination of the 4 non-recreational options. The 

remaining 2.5% of all respondents selected 

only the “other” option with either a protest or 

misinterpretation of the other categories. 

54 Only 6 questions in the questionnaire were required. Of the remaining 71 questions, 32 were 

optional, 5 were follow up questions, 3 were only 

for part-107 registrants, 8 were for operators 

identifying as emergency response, 15 were optional comments boxes, and 8 were administrative. More information is available in survey supplement.

55 Invited registrants had several means of opting 

out of the survey, including opting out through 

Survey Monkey, opting out of the current year’s 

survey in the questionnaire, or removing their 

email from the FAA survey list in the questionnaire. More information is available in survey supplement.

56 Within the questionnaire, 548 recreational and 

153 part-107 registrants opted out of the 2022 

Survey of sUAS operators while 424 recreational 

and 195 part-107 registrants opted out of any future surveys. Even though these registrants 

opened the survey and answered the opt-out 

questions, they were counted as a non-response. 

71 
 

■ 

■ 

□ 

■ 

□ 

□ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Part 107 Self-Identification 

3.1% 2.5% 

38.1% 

35.1% 

10.6% 

6.2% 

4.4% 

The self-identification question suggests that 

the vast majority of sUAS operators who register in the recreational registry are using 

their sUAS for personal enjoyment. However, Part 107 registrants have more diverse 

uses for their aircraft. With more than a third 

of Part 107 registrants using their aircraft for 

personal enjoyment, defining Part 107 operators as non-recreational or non-hobby is 

likely not completely accurate. 

All respondents, regardless of the registry in 

which they registered, were asked about the 

average number of flights, defined as a takeoff and a subsequent landing, and the average duration of each flight. Respondents 

from the recreational registry reported 17 

flight per month on average across the 

United States. However, the median was 

only 3 flights per month, suggesting the majority of recreational operators were only using their sUAS on one weekend a month 

while a smaller group of enthusiasts are operating multiple fights daily. 

57 These statistics reflect the active fleet of recreational UAS operators. As such, all operators who 

Commercial

Recreational ‐ Only

Mixed Non‐Recreational

Emergency Response

Non‐Emergency Response

Government

University/Non‐Profit

Other

The average duration of each flight for recreational registrants is 24.7 minutes, but the 

median duration is only 12 minutes.57 In 

closer consideration of these responses, we 

find that 0.9% of respondents reported more 

than 60 minutes for the duration of each 

flight, which is generally the flight time limitation for most commercially available sUAS 

batteries, and this group reported an average 

of almost 20 hours per flight. This suggests 

that some respondents may have misunderstood the question and assumed the question was regarding total time operating their 

sUAS in a month. When this population is removed from the statistics, the average time 

per flight is 14.1 minutes, which is much 

closer to the median of 12 minutes. Combining the reported flights and durations for 

each responded and removing the respondents with flight durations greater than 60 

minutes, we find an average total flying time 

of 2.9 hour per month per operator but only 

45 minutes for the median operator. 

reported that they did not operate a sUAS aircraft 

in 2022 were removed from the data. 

72 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Recreational registrants reported an average 

of over 7 sUAS per operator with the median 

operator owning 2 aircraft. Three quarters of 

each operators’ fleet were operated on average in 2022, but the median operator utilized 

their entire fleet. The fleet and flight behavior 

reported suggest that recreational registrants 

fall into two categories: novices and enthusiasts. The novices comprise the majority of 

the recreational registrants, tend to have one 

or two aircraft, operate one or both regularly, 

and only one weekend a month. Conversely, 

enthusiasts tend to have many more aircraft, 

operate only a portion of their large fleet, and 

fly regularly throughout the month. 

The flight behavior for Part 107 operators is 

complicated by the diversity of the population. As discussed above, over a third of registered Part 107 operators are recreational 

only operators. These recreational-only Part 

107 operators represent a distinct category 

of operator and may have distinct flight characteristics. In the construction of the questionnaire, the FAA wanted to separate Part 

107 operations from recreational operations 

since many Part 107 registrants are also registered as recreational operators. Thus, the 

questionnaire asked Part 107 registrants to 

report only non-recreational flight activity. As 

such, almost all of the recreational-only, Part 

107 registrants reported zero for their nonrecreational flights and durations. However, 

a portion of the Part 107 registrants were selected to answer an additional questions 

about the number of flights operated in each 

month regardless of whether it was for recreational or non-recreational uses. Using the 

answers to this additional question, recreational-only, Part 107 operators flew 2.3 flights 

per month in general with a median of 1 flight 

per month. 

Recreational-only Part 107 registrants reported an average of just under 2 sUAS aircraft per operator with the median operator 

owning only 1 aircraft. Given the fleet and 

flight profile of this group, they seem to be 

more akin to novice operators in the recreational registry than the enthusiast. This suggests that there could be some confusion 

among new operators regarding which registry is more appropriate to their operations. 

The counter argument is that this portion of 

recreational operators are enthusiasts who 

are seeking expanded flying privileges with 

Part 107 waivers. However, only 2.3% of this 

group reported an intention to seek a waiver 

compared to 20.6% for non-recreational operators. As such, the recreational-only, Part 

107 operators could be better served by the 

section-44809 recreational registry than the 

Part 107 registry. 

73 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

sUAS Fleet per Operator 

9 

8 

7 

6 

5 

4 

3 

2 

1 

0 

Mean 

Part 107 operators engaged in non-recreational activities flew 21 flights on average per 

month with a median of 5 flights.58 However, 

the number of flights changed based on how 

the respondent self-identified. Respondents 

who identified as commercial operators flew 

slightly fewer times per month compared to 

all non-recreational operators at 20 flights, 

but the median operator’s flights are the 

same. Respondents who identified as emergency response, non-emergency government, or university/nonprofit reported an average of 44, 26, and 20 flights with a median 

of 6, 5, and 4, respectively. This suggests 

that emergency-response operators are the 

most active of Part 107 registrants and university or nonprofit operators are the least 

active. 

58 These statistics reflect the active fleet of recreational UAS operators. As such, all operators who 

Median 

 

■ ■ 

Non-recreational operators flew 26.3 

minutes per flight with a median of 20 

minutes. Respondents who identified as 

commercial operators reported slightly 

shorter flights of 25.4 minutes on average but 

with the same median. Respondents identifying as emergency response, non-emergency government, and university/nonprofit 

reported flight durations of 35.9, 22.5, and 

21.9 minutes on average, respectively, but 

all have the same median as all non-recreational operators. 

In general, non-recreational operators spent 

a total of 8.4 hours per month operating their 

sUAS for non-recreational purposes. However, the median was far less at just an hour 

and a half. Operators who identified as commercial operators flew 7.1 hours per month 

reported that they did not operate a sUAS aircraft 

in 2022 were removed from the data. 

74 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

on average, less than the general population 

of non-recreational operators but shared the 

same median. Emergency-response and 

non-emergency government have a greater 

averages total operating time compared to 

the general population of non-recreational 

operators with an average of 20.8 and 8.3 

hours, respectively, but only emergency-response operators had a median greater than 

the all non-recreational operators at 2 hours. 

University/nonprofit operators flew less than 

the general population of non-recreational 

operators on average at only 6.1 hours but 

with the same median. 

Flights per Month 

50 

45 

40 

35 

30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

■ ■ 

Non-recreational registrants reported having 

an average of almost 6 sUAS aircraft with the 

median operator owning 2 aircraft. Similar to 

recreational registrants, the median operator 

flew all aircraft in their fleet in 2022, but on 

average, operators only flew 82% of their 

fleet. Commercial operators tended to have 

slightly smaller fleets at 4 aircraft on average, 

but a median 2 aircraft, similar to all non-recreational operators. Emergency response 

and university/nonprofit operators had significantly larger fleets than the general non-recreational operators with an average of 10 

Median 

sUAS aircraft and the median operator having 3 aircrafts for both groups. Although their 

fleets are similar, emergency response operators utilized 95% of their fleet in 2022 on average, the highest among the groups, while 

university/nonprofit operators utilized only 

72% of their fleet in 2022 on average, the 

lowest among the groups. Non-emergency 

government operators reported owning 7 aircraft and operating 90% on average with the 

median operator owning and operating 2 aircraft in 2022. 

75 

Mean
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Duration of Flight (in minutes) 

40 

35 

30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

Non-recreational operators report more intensive flight behavior compared to recreational registrants or recreational-only, Part 

107 registrants, which conforms to the notion 

that professional operators are spending 

more time during the week operating their 

sUAS. Universities and nonprofits have the 

lowest time operating, which could reflect the 

experimental nature of the sUAS aircraft 

■ ■ 

flown by this group. Emergency-response 

operators tend to report the most time operating, which suggests a maturing of this segment of Part 107 registrants. However, the 

large difference between the average and 

the median suggests that Part 107 registrants are bifurcated into a small number of 

professional operators and a large number of 

part-time operators. 

76 

Mean Median
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Total Time (hours) Flying per Month 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

■ Mean ■ Median 

these aircraft is lower. This suggests that universities and nonprofits are experimenting 

with sUAS more than using sUAS for routine 

operations. Commercial operators tend to 

have the smallest fleets and the fewest operations per month compared to non-recreational operators as a whole, which suggests 

a less mature segment of non-recreational 

sUAS market. However, the large difference 

between the average and the median indicates that there are many small entrepreneurs conducting Part 107 operations and a 

few large, professional organizations that 

have mature sUAS programs. 

The fleet responses from the non-recreational, Part 107 operators along with the flight 

responses suggest that these groups may be 

at different stages of their lifecycle and occupy different niches within the sUAS industry. Both emergency-response and nonemergency, government operators tend to 

have larger fleets and operate their aircraft 

more often than other non-recreational operators, indicating more professional and organized programs. University/nonprofit operators have larger fleets than the average nonrecreational operator, but the utilization of 

77 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Certifications for part 61 operators, on the 

other hand, require an applicant to hold a pilot certificate issued under 14 CFR part 61, 

and to have completed a flight review within 

the previous 24 months. Since part 61 operators already have IACRA profiles established, they are required to complete, like 

Part 107 operators, FAA Form 8710-13 in 

IACRA. Upon completion of this form, submission of proof of current flight review, and 

submission of proof of online course completion, part 61 operators are required to meet 

with FAA representatives at the FAA Flight 

Standards District Office (FSDO), or with an 

FAA-designated pilot examiner (DPE), or an 

airman certification representative (ACR) or 

an FAA-certificated flight instructor (CFI), 

who issues the RP certificate to the part 61 

operator. Like their Part 107 counterparts, 

certificates for part 61 operators are valid for 

2 years and require renewal.60 

Following the process above, the FAA classifies RPs into two categories: 

 those who do not hold any pilot certificate other than the Part 107, or Remote Pilot Only; and

 those who hold a part 61 certificate

and a Part 107 certificate, or Part 61

and Remote Pilot.

The chart below provides a distribution of 

these two types of RPs who presently have 

certificates. 

59 In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who plus current traditional pilots who took online 

passed the initial knowledge test (or Part 107), training in lieu of the knowledge test (or part 61). 

60 See https://bit.ly/2AUacmT for more details. 

78 

Remote Pilot Forecast 

An important final metric in commercial small 

drones is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. RPs59 are used primarily to facilitate commercial and public use small drone 

flights, as discussed in the preceding section. As of December 2022, a total of 309,713 

RP certifications had been issued, an increase of almost 56,000 from the same time 

last year (2021) and slightly higher than the 

year before (2020). 

Part 107 certifications require completing a 

multi-step process, beginning with obtaining 

an FAA tracking number via the creation of 

an Integrated Airman Certification and Rating Application (IACRA) profile prior to registering for a knowledge test. Following this initial step, scheduling and passing the initial 

aeronautical knowledge test at a Knowledge 

Testing Center is required. Provided that one 

has passed this test, the applicant is required 

to fill out FAA Form 8710-13 in IACRA. A 

confirmation email is sent when an applicant 

has completed the necessary Transportation 

Security Administration (TSA) security background check. This email contains instructions for printing a copy of the temporary remote pilot certificate from IACRA. A permanent remote pilot certificate is sent via mail 

once all other FAA-internal processing is 

complete. An RP certificate is valid for two 

years, and certificate holders must pass a recurrent knowledge test every two years at a 

Knowledge Testing Center. It is required that 

RPs carry their certificate whenever flying a 

small drone. 
■ 

■ 

UAS Registrations by Calendar Year (Remote Pilot) 

Registrations 

by Zip Code 

2022 

>

" 7 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Distribution of Remote Pilots 

26.0% 

74.0% 

Remote Pilot (Part 61 and Part 107 Certificate) 

Remote Pilot (Part 107 Only) 

Around 74% of the RPs are Part 107 RPs by zip codes in 2021 is provided in the map 

only. Over 90% of those who took the exam below. 

passed and obtained RP certification. A cumulative density distribution of remote pilots 

79 
~ ------- -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

The RP forecasts presented below are 

based on three primary data sources: (a) 

trends in total RPs; (b) renewal trends; and 

(c) trends in commercial small drone registration, or Part 107 and forecasts of fleet. In

this context, it is important to note that the

empirical relationship between trends in RP

and commercial/Part 107 small drone registration, particularly new registration, appear

to hold despite expiry, cancellations and renewal. Given the trends in registration and

our forecast of the commercial small drone

fleet (i.e., base forecasts), the FAA assumes

that one pilot is likely to handle 2.38 units of 

commercial small drone aircraft, the same as 

the previous three years. 

Using these assumptions and combined with 

the base scenario of the commercial/Part 

107 small drone forecast, we project RPs in 

the graph below. Last year, the FAA projected RPs to be approximately 294,276 by 

the end of 2022. Actual registrations by the 

end of 2022 totaled 309,713 (or more than 

15,437 from last year’s projection) thus actual exceeding last year’s projection by 

5.25% for 2022. 

Remote Pilot Forecast 

(in thousands) 

450 

400 

350 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

2021 2022 2023 

Given the actual numbers at the end of 2022, 

RPs are set to experience tremendous 

growth following the growth trends of the 

commercial small drone sector. Starting from 

the base of 309,713 RPs in 2022, commercial activities may require over 401,000 RPs 

in five years, a 1.3-fold increase that may 

provide tremendous opportunities for growth 

402 393 

363 

339 

380 

310 

254 2.38 UAS per RPA 

2024 2025 2026 2027 

Year 

in employment—over 92,000 new RP opportunities—associated with commercial and 

public use activities of small drones. Potential for RPs may enhance even more if larger 

drones are used in commercial activities and 

advance air mobility (AAM) becomes a reality in the near future, two topics discussed in 

the sections below. 

80 
■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS 

The chart below summarizes how COVID-19 

may have impacted three areas of registration. During the prolonged and partial economic shut-downs during March – December 

2020, and January – December 2021, respectively, and gradual opening during January – December, 2022, it is clear that commercial facets of small drone operations, i.e., 

Part 107 and RP registrations, were impacted negatively during 2020. 

Trends in Registrations: March 2nd - December 28th (2022 -

2019) 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

-10% 

-20% 

-30% 

March 2nd - December 28th (2020 versus 2019) 

March 2nd - December 28th (2021 versus 2020) 

March 2nd - December 28th (2022 versus 2021) 

33% 31% 

7% 5% 

Recreational Registrations Part 107 Registrations Remote Pilot Registrations 

-5% -6% 

-22% -24% 

-18% 

Part 107 registrations dropped by over 18% 

in 2020 compared to the prior year of 2019, 

but recovered in 2021 with an increase of 

7%. This further continued with 5% increase 

in the following year, i.e., during 2022. RP 

registrations dropped by 5% in 2020, followed by a 31% increase in 2021. RP registration declined by 6% during 2022. Interestingly, the registration of recreational users increased by almost 33% during the past year 

of 2020 in comparison to the year before; 

however, recreational user registration went 

down by 24% in the second year of the pandemic and further declined by 22% during 

the year after of 2022, in comparison with the 

first year. 

81 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

this may have caused higher recreational 

registration in the first year of the pandemic 

in comparison to the prior year. The situation 

seems to have reversed during 2021-2022, 

where recreational registrations dropped by 

24% and 22% respectively, while Part 107 

and RP registrations bounced back by 7% 

and 31%, respectively, in comparison to the 

prior year. However, while Part 107 registration continued to climb, RP registration reversed the trend in 2022. The changing nature of registrations, and subsequently forecasts, offers challenges and opportunities for 

integration of small drones into the NA 

While it is quite possible that these drops/increases were led by developments within the 

Part 107 and recreational communities, we 

believe that at least some of the observed 

drops/increases were caused primarily by 

COVID-19. As the economy slowed down 

considerably, the use of commercial small 

drones (and, correspondingly, the use of 

RPs), may have decreased in the first year, 

followed by economic adjustments in the following year that allowed for increased commercial use. On the other hand, the economic slowdown may have afforded more 

time to people working from home to experiment with recreational use of small drones; 

Large UAS 

Part 107 limits the gross takeoff weight of uncrewed aircraft (or sUAS) to below 

55lbs. Thus, uncrewed aircraft with gross 

takeoff weights above 55lbs must 

operate under separate rules and are 

considered a sepa-rate category of UAS, 

which are referred to as simply large UAS 

(lUAS). Since these lUAS are not type 

certified and do not fall un-der the Part 107 

operating rules, operation of these aircraft 

requires a section 49 U.S.C § 44807 

exemption or a public aircraft operator (POA) 

certification.61 In addition, the FAA re-quires 

lUAS operating under a 44807 exemption or POA to receive a tail number by 

registering the uncrewed aircraft in the 

public aircraft registry.62 As such, the lUAS 

fleet and operations are not contained in or 

correlated the sUAS discussed in previous 

sections. 

The FAA has been granting 44807 exemption since their introduction in the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018. Both applications for 

a 44807 exemption by individuals and organizations and the decisions by the FAA are 

publicly available.63 Since 44807 exemptions 

are required to operate a lUAS for commercial purposes, these exemptions are a leading indicator of both the purchases, which increase the fleet, and the operations, which 

increases the observed flights, of non-military, commercial lUAS. However, the 44807 

exemption is slated to sunset in 2023, unless 

extended in the 2023 FAA Reauthorization 

bill. Given exemptions are only valid for two 

years from the date they are granted, we 

could see all operations of lUAS disappear 

by 2025 without additional legislation. 

61 See https://bit.ly/3KxiuVX for more details. 63 All 44807-exemption applications and deci- 62 See https://bit.ly/3ZIcCxJ. sions are available at regulations.gov in the 

“Other” category. 

82 
■ ■ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

The FAA has granted 366 exemption in from 2021. The remaining roughly 7% (27) 

2022, an astounding 450% increase from were for other applications, including aerial 

2021. Just under 8% of exemptions (28) photography, parcel delivery, and infrastrucwere amendments or extensions of existing ture inspection, in order of quantity granted. 

exemption. Eighty-five percent of exemp- Of the granted exemptions, 85% were filed 

tions (311) were granted for agricultural- by only 5 firms representing end-use operaspraying applications, up by almost 600% tors. 

44807 Exemption Granted for Large UAS 

400 

350 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 

Extend/Amend New Agricultural New Other 

The rapid increase in exemptions granted 

suggests that the safety cases for specific 

operation have been sufficiently demonstrated to regulators such that the granting 

exemptions for these narrow operations is 

now routine. In addition, the small number of 

firms representing operators suggests specialization in communicating these narrow 

uses to regulators. Moreover, the growth in 

44807 exemptions indicates that we should 

expect larger fleets of lUAS in the future as 

operators with exemptions scale their operations to meet economic opportunities. However, since the bulk of new exemptions 

granted are for agricultural use, the majority 

of new lUAS will operate close to the ground 

in agricultural regions and thus, are unlikely 

to be observed operating in the NAS, particularly in the controlled airspace environment. 

Since lUAS are required to register with the 

Public Aircraft Registry (PAR), we can use 

the PAR to estimate the lUAS active fleet. 

Using the Aircraft Reference file from the 

PAR, we identify the lUAS in the Aircraft Registration Master file and the Deregistered Aircraft file from which we calculate the active 

83 
 

■ ■ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

fleet of lUAS.64 In 2022, 590 new lUAS aircraft were added to the PAR, an 84% increase from 2021. Sixteen percent of aircraft 

registered at the end of 2021 (115) were delisted in 2022, producing an active fleet of 

1,206 lUAS by the end of 2022. 

With robust demand for lUAS operation indicated by 44807 exemptions, we expect the 

growth of new lUAS over the next 5 years to 

keep pace with the growth observed in 2022. 

As such, we expect 6,189 new lUAS will be 

added to the PAR in 2027, with a total active 

lUAS fleet of 12,651 aircraft by the end of 

2027. This forecast assumes that 44807 exemption, or an equivalently permissive rule, 

remains in place until 2027. However, the uncertainty regarding the availability of the 

44807 exemptions presents a headwind for 

the expansion of the lUAS sector. Additionally, with interest rates elevated for 2023 and 

possibly remaining elevated into the future, 

the resulting increase in the cost of capital is 

also likely to reduce the growth of the active 

fleet as less capital is available for the development of associated technologies and elevated financing cost reduce aircraft purchases.65 

Large UAS in the Public Aircraft Registry 

1,400 

-200 

Continued Added Removed 

0 

200 

400 

600 

800 

1,000 

1,200 

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 

64 The Public Aircraft Registry data for 2022 is 

available at https://bit.ly/433iqET. Uncrewed aircraft are separated from crewed aircraft using the 

“NO-SEATS” field in the Aircraft Reference file. 

The “AC-WEIGHT” field is used to remove all 

small uncrewed aircraft, and the “TYPE-ACFT” 

field is used to remove all lighter-than-air aircraft, 

including blimps and balloons. The remaining 

codes – held within the “CODE” field – are 

matched with the “MFR MDL CODE” in the Aircraft Registration Master file and the Deregistered Aircraft file, and adjusted based on the 

“STATUS CODE” field. The remaining aircraft are 

sorted for the year the registered using the 

“CERT ISSUE DATE” or “LAST ACTION DATE”. 

The count of new registration (2022), older registrations (2021 and older), and delisted registrations (2022) are used to construct the active lUAS 

fleet. 

65 The Federal Funds Effective Rate has risen 

from 0.8% at the beginning of 2022 to 4.57% at 

the beginning of 2023 and Moody’s Aaa bond 

yields have increased from 2.93% at the beginning of 2022 to 4.40% at the beginning of 2023. 

Both suggest higher costs of borrowing for capital 

purchases. 

84 
 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Projected Large UAS in the Public Aircraft Registry 

15,800 

13,800 

11,800 

9,800 

7,800 

5,800 

3,800 

1,800 

-200 

Although the active fleet can be observed 

from the PAR, the operations of lUAS are 

more difficult to observe. As such, the FAA 

uses MITRE’s Threaded Track data66 to estimate the number of non-military, lUAS 

flights. Since the Threaded Tracked data 

only captures activity in controlled airspace, 

66 See https://bit.ly/3GhsMao for more details. 

67 In previous years’ Aerospace Forecast, we included both military and civilian flights in our estimates of large UAS activity in the NAS. However, 

with the inclusion of the Public Aircraft Registry 

data as an estimate for the active fleet of UAS 

with weights above 55lbs, military large UAS 

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 

Continued Added Removed 

Continued (Projected) Added (Projected) Removed (Projected) 

flights by lUAS operator close to the ground, 

such as agricultural drones, are not included 

in these flights.67 According to the 2022 

Threaded Track data, 299 flights were taken 

by lUAS for non-military or civilian purposes, 

which is an 86% increase from the previous 

year (161 flights in 2021). 

have been removed from the active fleet. To provide consistency across estimates, we have eliminated all Threaded Track originating or terminating at military installations or tail numbers that 

have ever originated or terminated at a military 

installation. As such, the remainder have been 

assigned as non-military or civilian with a high degree of confidence. 

85 
 

/ 

/ 

/ 

, 

/ 

~ 

~ 

~ 

~ 

~ _, .,,, - .,,, - .,,, .,,, - .,,, -- --- - -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Civilian Large Uncrewed Aircraft Flights Observed in the NAS 

Aircraft 

3500 

3000 

2500 

2000 

1500 

1000 

500 

0 

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 

Estimated 

The increase in observed flights seems to 

mirror the increase in the active fleet, both 

around 85%. However, the number of lUAS 

flights observed is only 0.25 flights per lUAS 

registered in the PAR, which is far too low to 

be economically rational. This suggests that 

many flights are not being observed through 

the Threaded Track data due to the bulk of 

flights being conducted in proximity to the 

UAS Imports: Preliminary Analysis of Data 

On January 27th 2022, the White House issued a proclamation to update the Harmonized Trade Schedule of the United States 

68 Pesticide drift is when the movement of the aircraft or wind while spraying moves the pesticide 

away from its intended target. Pesticide drift is 

regulated by the EPA. For more information, see 

https://bit.ly/41iQf3d. 

Forecast 

ground. As the data on 44807 exemption 

granted suggest, most of the lUAS operations are most likely agricultural-spraying operations. Agricultural-spraying lUAS operate 

close to the ground to avoid pesticide drift.68 

As such, lUAS agricultural-spraying flights 

which the 44807 grants data suggests in the 

bulk of lUAS operations, are not observable, 

and thus, the observable flights are likely 

only a fraction of the actual lUAS flights. 

(HTSUS) to match recommendations by the 

World Customs Organization.69 As part of the 

update, UAS received their own categories, 

separating UAS from crewed aircraft or toys. 

69 See the U.S. President’s proclamation: 

https://bit.ly/3K9YY0C; World Customs Organization’s amendments: https://bit.ly/42ZzqvL. 

86 
 

■ ■ □ ■ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

The new schedule splits UAS into several 

categories based on weight and a special 

category for UAS capable of passenger services (See table below).70 The new HTSUS 

has given the FAA addition information regarding the number of UAS purchased in the 

United States. This is particularly useful 

given that the vast majority of sUAS operator 

within the United States are import. 

Code Type Weight 

8806 Rc Unmanned Aircraft 

Rc Unmanned Aircraft 8806.10 Unspecified Carriage of Passengers 

8806.21 Rc Unmanned Aircraft Not Over 250 g 

8806.22 Rc Unmanned Aircraft 250 g - 7 kg 

8806.23 Rc Unmanned Aircraft 7 kg - 25 kg 

8806.24 Rc Unmanned Aircraft 25 kg - 150 kg 

8806.29 Rc Unmanned Aircraft > 150 kg 

U.S. Imports of UAS by Value 

$134,200,000 

$17,421,717 $17,793,893 

$117,867,249 

China Canada Other Malaysia 

vast majority of UAS imports, both in terms In 2022, the United States imported more of value and units, are from either China or than 466,000 UAS worth $287 million. The 

70 The categories also included “Not Elsewhere 

Specified or Included (NESOI)” and “duplicate 

category” for each of the sub-category codes. 

87 
• • D 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Malaysia with Canada being a notable ex- States, along with Mexico, Switzerland, and 

porter of UAS in terms of values. On aver- Vietnam. Conversely, South Africa, Ausage, both China and Malaysia are exporting tralia, the UK, Austria, and the Czech Republow value UAS occupying bottom 5 in terms lic have the highest value per unit. 

of value per unit imported into the United 

U.S. Imports of UAS by Units 

216,275 

8,034 

242,334 

China Other Malaysia 

Value per Unit of U.S. UAS Imports by Country of Origin 

$300,000 

$250,000 

$200,000 

$150,000 

$100,000 

$50,000 

$0 

$130 $486 $621 $1,094 $1,102 

107 and Section 44809 do not require oper- Using the codes for UAS, the imported UAS ator with UAS weighing less than 0.55lbs (or can be segmented based on weight. Part 250g) to register under Part 107 or Section 

44809 and both Part 107 and section 44809 

88 
• • □ • • □ 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

forbid the operation of UAS greater than 

55lbs (or 25kg). As such, we binned the imports into three categories: micro UAS 

(mUAS < 0.55lbs), small UAS (0.55lbs < 

sUAS < 55lbs), and large UAS (lUAS > 

55lbs). Thus, mUAS includes 8806.21, sUAS 

mUas Import Value in 2022 

$5,216,668 

$103,983,317 

$55,995,244 

Malaysia China Other 

A total of 343,104 mUAS were imported into 

the United States in 2022 with a value of over 

$165 million. China and Malaysia dominated 

this segment of the UAS market, exporting 

113,744 and 229,107 units worth $56 million 

and $104 million, respectively. Between the 

two countries, their exports to the United 

includes 8806.22 and 8806.23, and lUAS includes 8806.24 and 8806.29 [see sub-codes 

in table above]. The remaining category of 

UAS capable of passenger services 

(8809.10) did not have any reported imports 

in 2022 and is ignored. 

Units of mUas Imported in

2022 

253 

229,107 

113,744 

Malaysia China Other 

States made up 99.9% of the mUAS imported. However, the average value per unit 

of the imports from China and Malaysia are 

less than $500, the least expensive of this 

category of UAS. The Netherlands and Norway had the most expensive units exported 

to the United States with an average value of 

$30,621 and $27,812 per unit, respectively, 

although few units were imported. 

89 
■ 

■ 

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

mUAS Import Value per Unit by Country of Origin 

$35,000 

$30,000 

$25,000 

$20,000 

$15,000 

$10,000 

$5,000 

$0 

$30,621 

$27,812 

$4,326 

$8,020 

$454 $492 $791 

$2,557 

sUas Import Value in 2022 Units of sUas Imported in 2022 

$5,786,724 $3,483,482 

102,043

5,330 934 

13,227 $13,883,932 

$16,646,795 $76,471,099 

China Canada Malaysia China Malaysia 

Switzerland Other Switzerland Other 

90 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

sUAS Import Value per Unit by Country of Origin 

$140,000 

$120,000 

$100,000 

$80,000 

$60,000 

$40,000 

$20,000 

$0 

$749 $1,050 $1,086 $1,102 $1,601 

The United States imported 121,534 units of 

sUAS in 2022 valued at $116 million. Imports 

from China dominate this segment of the 

UAS market with 102,043 units imported, 84 

percent of all sUAS imported into the United 

States. By value, the sUAS imports from 

China exceeded $76 million, 65.8% of sUAS 

imports by value. sUAS imports from Canada, Malaysia, and Switzerland were valued 

at $16.6 million, $13.9 million, and $5.8 million (14.2%, 11.9%, and 5%) of sUAS imports by value, respectively. Although China, 

Malaysia and Switzerland exported a considerable number of sUAS to the United States, 

the average value per unit were the smallest 

of all exporting countries at $749, $1,050, 

and $1,086 per unit, respectively. Canada, 

on the other hand, exported only 192 unit to 

the United State, but the sUAS had an average value of over $86,000 per unit, the second highest value per unit. However, Norway 

had the highest value per unit imported into 

the United States at $116,000 per unit on average. 

91 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

lUas Import Value in 2022 

$1,734,157 

$822,006 

$765,426 

$596,181 

$568,764 

$359,266 

$280,000 

$260,922 

$237,526 $191,850 

China 

Other 

Italy 

Korea, South 

United Kingdom 

Australia 

Canada 

South Africa 

Spain 

Latvia 

Units of lUas Imported in 2022 

554 

488 

437 

206 

173 

147 

Canada China Spain Mexico Other Korea, South 

92 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

lUAS Import Value per Unit by Country of Origin 

$300,000 

$250,000 

$200,000 

$150,000 

$100,000 

$50,000 

$0 

lUAS was the most diverse of the imports. In 

2022, the United States imported 2,005 units 

of lUAS valued at $5.8 million. Once again, 

China was the dominant exporter to the 

United States but only in terms of value. The 

United States imported 488 units from China 

valued at $1.7 million, 29.8% and 24.3% of 

lUAS imports in terms of units and value, respectively. Canada was the largest exporter 

to the United States in terms of units with 554 

units with a value of $765,000. Mexico, 

France, Spain, Canada, and China had the 

lowest value per unit imported; with imports 

from Mexico at only $130 per unit. Conversely, Australia, the U.K., Latvia, Italy, and 

South Africa had the highest value per unit 

with South Africa boasting $280,000 per unit. 

Although China plays a major role in all three 

segments of the UAS markets, it only has 

significant market dominance in the sUAS 

market. Malaysia is also a major exporter to 

$130 $656 $1,364 $1,382 $3,554 

the United States, where it is the largest exporter of mUAS both in terms of units and 

value. Canada seems to be exporting UAS 

further up the value chain than either Malaysia or China providing higher valued sUAS 

and lUAS. Switzerland plays a small but significant role in the sUAS market, providing 

UAS at a similar price point to Chinese exports. Overall, China is a dominant exporter 

in UAS markets in the United State, but many 

other countries provide an alternative to Chinese exports at similar price points. 

Given the extent to which the U.S. market for 

both mUAS and sUAS is dominated by imports, the import data are a fair estimate of 

the number of UAS added to the U.S. fleets, 

especially for sUAS sectors including both 

recreational and Part 107. As such, new registration could be limited to the number of 

sUAS imports observed. However, given that 

2022 was the first year that import data for 

UAS were tracked, we only know the current 

state of the imports, and we cannot estimate 

93 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

the possible growth of imports over time. In 

addition, the new schedule did not start until 

January 27th of 2022, and it is possible that 

companies exported as much inventory as 

possible in late 2021 and early January 2022 

to avoid higher duties. As such, the number 

Advance Air Mobility 

In September 2017, NASA launched a market study for a segment crossing over some 

functions of drone activities discussed 

above. This segment of initially piloted and 

autonomous vehicles in the future, broadly 

called AAM, is defined as “a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo 

transportation, inclusive of small parcel delivery and other urban drone services, which 

supports a mix of onboard/ground-piloted 

and increasingly- autonomous operations.”71 

72 Urban air mobility (or UAM), within the 

broad AAM category, is thus envisioned as a 

transportation system that is likely to use piloted/automated aircraft to transport passengers and cargo at lower altitude within urban 

and suburban areas. 

Building on the UAM concept by incorporating use cases not specific to operations in an 

urban environment, the FAA defines the 

scope of AAM broadly as follows:73 

 Commercial Inter-city (Longer 

Range/Thin Haul); 

71 The community is in the process of establishing 

nomenclature. Only recently, the community-atlarge has moved on to coining earlier-used “urban 

air mobility” (UAM) as “advanced air mobility” 

(AAM) to broaden its operational scope, technical 

characteristics, economic opportunities, and regulatory framework. Under this broad characterization, UAM is considered a subset of AAM. 

72 See https://go.nasa.gov/40Y4hXM. 73 See https://bit.ly/3U7W2pA. 74 There appears to be a broad consensus where 

eVTOLs are expected to be piloted initially (likely 

of sUAS imported in 2022 could be far less 

than an average year. Several additional 

years of import data is required to make full 

use of this data to support the sUAS forecast. 

The FAA plans to track these data going forward. 

 Cargo Delivery; 

 Public Services; and 

 Private / Recreational Vehicles. 

AAM technology presents considerable opportunities for economic growth over the 

coming decades. Markets for AAM services, 

such as package delivery by drone or larger 

autonomous or remotely piloted cargo delivery, airport shuttling (or services along the 

fixed routes between urban locations to airports and vice versa), or traditionally-piloted, 

remotely-piloted, or autonomous passenger 

shuttles or air taxis (i.e., on-demand point-topoint services) have significant potential both 

in the United States and globally.74 For example, package or larger cargo delivery is 

the AAM service that is most likely to experience economic growth in the next decade. 

Drone delivery services have been presently 

operating in Arkansas, Florida, Arizona, and 

Texas, with Virginia and Utah soon to follow. 

As of December 2022, drones delivered 

more than 10,000 items up to ten pounds in 

as little as 30 minutes for a delivery fee of 

during 2025-2030) followed by transition to remotely piloted with increasingly autonomous operations (likely during 2035 and beyond) based 

on the current state in autonomy research and 

development, and present status of certification 

procedures [see Urban Air Mobility: An Airport 

Perspective (2023), ACRP Research Report 

#243; available at https://bit.ly/40HQhBu. 

94 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

$3.99.75 The growth trajectory is anticipated 

to accelerate once FAA permits BVLOS operations. By 2030, package delivery is likely 

to be profitable at a price point of $4.20 per 

delivery, with a fleet of 40,000 vehicles completing 500 million deliveries per year.76 

Passenger services, on the other hand, 

promise larger markets for AAM services, but 

safety challenges, infrastructure, public acceptance, and evolving technology leading to 

market uncertainties may determine both the 

entry into services (EIS) and the pace of 

AAM’s penetration into this segment of the 

market. Nevertheless, flight testing continues 

to elucidate the performance dynamics of 

electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL). For example, Joby Aviation announced in July 2021 that it has completed a 

test flight which surpassed 150 miles on a 

single charge with its eVTOL aircraft. Recently, AutoFlight broke that record and reported that its test flight completed 155 miles 

on a single charge on February 23 of this 

year.77 Collectively, the industry recorded 

over 6,000 cumulative flight hours of aircraft 

testing over the past few years, many in 

2022.78 

The increasing number of flight tests and 

data collection are paving the way for type 

certification (TC) of eVTOL aircraft. Since becoming the first eVTOL company to sign a G1 certification basis with the FAA in 2020, 

Joby has continued to demonstrate progress 

in obtaining TC for its eVTOL aircraft. In February 2022, Joby announced it completed the 

first series of conformity testing observed by 

75 See https://bit.ly/3Kv8QTZ for a discussion. 

76 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. [See https://go.nasa.gov/2C5Ten9].

77 See https://bit.ly/40VdeAW. 78 See https://mck.co/3KyvHhx. 79 https://bit.ly/4117bek. 

an on-site FAA designated engineering representative (DER) to evaluate the material 

strength of its eVTOL components.79 In 

March 2022, Joby announced the completion 

and subsequent approval of its first systems 

and compliance review by the FAA. The systems review assessed Joby’s plans and process for the development of flight controls, 

propulsion controls, battery management, 

other systems and equipment, while the 

compliance review evaluated Joby’s approach to the development and verification of 

aerospace-grade software and airborne 

electronic hardware.80 Later in March 2022, 

Joby submitted its first area-specific certification plan to the FAA, becoming the first eVTOL company to do so. In the plan, Joby lays 

out “the combination of design reports, analysis and testing that it will employ to demonstrate compliance with rigorous FAA safety 

standards”.81 In May 2022, Joby received its 

Part 135 air carrier certificate from the FAA. 

This will allow Joby to operate commercial air 

taxi operations using traditional aircraft to 

test routes and services while obtaining a TC 

and a production certificate (PC) for its eVTOL. In 2022, Joby also applied for its eVTOL aircraft to be certified for use in the 

United Kingdom and in Japan. 

There is also eVTOL TC progress globally. In 

February 2022, Eve Urban Air Mobility, 

which plans to operate eVTOL flights in Brazil and in Latin America, formalized the process for obtaining TC from the National Civil 

Aviation Agency – Brazil for its eVTOL aircraft (with deliveries expected to start in 

2026).82 German air taxi manufacturer, Volocopter, obtained a production organization 

80 https://bit.ly/3KzFTq6. 81 https://bit.ly/3ZFA1Qi. 82 Eve Urban Air Mobility, an Embraer company, 

went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in May 2022, 

95 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

approval (POA) from the European Union 

Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)83 and 

achieved application for concurrent TC for 

VoloCity by both EASA and Japan Civil Aviation Board (JCAB). VoloCity air taxi appears 

to be on target to achieve certification from 

EASA in 2024 and plan to fly during the 2025 

EXPO Osaka Kansai.84 The company is pursuing concurrent validation with three nonEuropean civil aviation authorities: JCAB in 

Japan, FAA, and the Civil Aviation Authority 

of Singapore (CAAS) in Singapore.85 In similar vein, Joby Aviation, in collaboration with 

ST Telecom, signed a partnership on February 6, 2022 to introduce aerial ridesharing 

services to cities and communities in South 

Korea.86 Airbus expects its UAM aircraft to 

meet EASA certification standards (EASA 

SC-VTOL Enhanced Category) and receive 

TC around 2025.87 

Progress in TC appears to signal imminent 

entry of eVTOL into services. In order to facilitate the AAM market to grow and prosper 

in the US, the president signed the Bill S.516 

into law on Oct 17, 2022 known as Advanced 

Air Mobility Coordination and Leadership 

Act.

88 Under this Act, AAM is referred as an 

air transportation system that moves people 

and cargo between places using new aircraft 

designs that are integrated into existing airspace operations as well as operated in local, regional, intraregional, rural, and urban 

environments. The law directs the US Department of Transportation (USDDOT) to esas predecessors Joby, Archer, Lilium, Vertical 

Aerospace have done so already; and recently in 

March, 2023 Jaunt Air Mobility, as a whollyowned subsidiary of AIRO Group, went public as 

well. 

83 https://bit.ly/3zwogkt. 84 Joby and Vertical are also planning to provide 

services, in addition to Volocopter, during Expo 

2025 in Osaka. 

tablish an Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) interagency working group by February 14, 2023 

(i.e., 120 days from enactment of the Law) to 

plan and coordinate efforts related to the 

safety, infrastructure, physical security, cybersecurity, and federal investment necessary to bolster the AAM ecosystem, particularly passenger-carrying aircraft, in the US. 

The primary purpose of the working group is 

to make recommendations focusing on economic opportunities, workforce, security, and 

infrastructure, areas beyond traditional federal roles in aircraft certification and operations. It is also tasked with reviewing the 

views of various stakeholders, including aircraft operators and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), airports, labor groups, 

state, local, and tribal officials, consumer 

groups, and first responders. Drawing on 

these inputs, ultimately, the working group is 

tasked with developing a national strategy for 

the integration of advanced air mobility vehicles into the NAS. It is anticipated that corporate work plans within different LOBs of the 

FAA including AAM CONOPS89 will complement the national strategy. 

With an aim to strengthen these initiatives 

and need to better understand likely market 

conditions and demand signals, and correspondingly, the need for resources for planning including workforce, airspace and infrastructure, the FAA had launched several research studies on numerous aspects of 

AAM. One of the recently completed research is now publicly available.90 

85 See https://bit.ly/3nMUxkR. 86 See https://bit.ly/3nFfy0x. 87 https://bit.ly/3KdIwMV. 88 See https://bit.ly/3KxQwJO for more details. 

89 For the version 1.0, see 

https://go.nasa.gov/3ZJASzr. Version 2.0 of 

FAA’s AAM CONOPS is likely to be published in 

the spring of 2023.

90 https://bit.ly/3U60IfX. 

96 
 

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

The research was divided into three broad 

work packages: Evaluation of AAM market 

potential: economic feasibility, potential size 

and growth, characteristics of population, 

and ground infrastructure (work package 1 or 

WP1); WP 2: Airworthiness regulations and 

its applicability to AAM aircraft certification; 

and WP 3: Evaluation of AAM integration on 

the NAS, air traffic control and operations in 

particular. Drawn on these individual WPs, 

WP4 provides the final report with recommendations for future research. 

The emergence of AAM will likely bring about 

a variety of new services in five distinct market segments, including airport shuttles, regional air mobility, on demand air taxis, corporate campus shuttles, and emergency services. Some of these services, particularly 

regional transport, may be served by eVTOLs as well as short take-off and landing 

(STOL) and conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) vehicles.91 ASSURE research 

broadly defines the following categories of 

services that will likely be served by AAM and 

their anticipated market share distribution: 

Categories Served by AAM 

Airport shuttles and similar fixed-route passenger services are the most likely AAM passenger services to gain economic tractions in 

91 Some of these vehicles may even be powered 

by electric propulsion thus making them eSTOL 

and eCTOL, hybrid (i.e., gas and electric), or 

even hydrogen-cell powered, when available. For 

example, BETA announced on March 14, 2023 

that it will pursue certification of a conventional 

fixed-wing electric aircraft (CX300) in addition to 

developing eVTOL air taxi (Alia-250). 

11.53% 

10.86% 

27.02% 

12.75% 

37.84% 

Corporate Campus Airport Shuttle Regional Transport 

Emergency Service On Demand Air Taxi 

the coming decade.92 On demand air taxi is 

likely soon follow. Optimistic reports project 

the AAM passenger industry to have 23,000 

92 As noted in ACRP Report #243 [see 

https://bit.ly/3ma8EAg] airport shuttle services 

connecting airports to city centers are believed by 

many stakeholders to be an early proving ground 

for air metro leading to scale. However, other distributions following service prioritization are possible as well; e.g., search and rescue missions 

97 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

aircraft with 740 million enplanements per 

year at a price of around $30 per trip by 

2030.93 However, several other studies have 

reported more conservative estimates, arguing that market penetration is likely to be limited to a handful of major metropolitan areas 

where geography and economic conditions 

are conducive to AAM market development. 

As such, estimates by KMPG predict 60.4 

million enplanements by 2030 and a much 

smaller industry size.94 Similarly, Roland 

Berger estimates a fleet of only 12,000 passenger eVTOL aircraft by 2030 serving much 

smaller total passengers.95 However, given 

the current safety, technology, and integration challenges, even these projections may 

be optimistic. Using airport shuttle and air 

taxi as the scope, a recent study concluded 

that AAM passenger services could have a 

daily demand of 82,000 passengers served 

by approximately 4,000 four to five-seater 

aircraft in the US. Baselining in this most conservative scenario, these services may yield 

an annual market valuation of $2.5 billion.96 

While certification, testing and evaluation 

process is in full swing for a few manufacturers in the US, it is important to understand 

followed by remote supply objectives, organ 

transport, and then air taxis seem to be of priority 

and importance. Cargo transport and disaster relief followed by military missions and aerial ambulance services are likely as well [see 

https://bit.ly/3nBGa2w].

93 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. [See https://go.nasa.gov/2C5Ten9].

94 Getting Mobility Off the Ground, 2019, KPMG 

[see https://bit.ly/2WKcIcs].

95 Urban Air Mobility: The rise of a new mode of 

transportation, Nov. 2018, Roland Berger [See 

https://bit.ly/2QVewri]. 

rationale, demand triggers in particular, behind initial site selection for deployment of 

those services. ASSURE developed a framework, called site suitability analysis, to analyze demand triggers leading to likely deployment to initial sites that will be served by 

AAM. ASSURE research identifies five broad 

demand triggers: urban structure, economic 

scale, congestion, readiness of the service 

areas, and existing demand. Urban structure 

is represented by population density and polycentricism,97 economic scale is represented 

by presence of fortune 100 companies and 

gross regional product or GRP or GDP by 

metro; congestion in metro area is captured 

by average time to work, drive time from airport to central business district (CBD) and an 

overall travel time index. Metro area readiness is represented by presence of heliports 

and airports per capita, presence of Class B 

airspace (i.e., controlled airspace), congestion in Class G (or uncontrolled airspace), 

magnitude of public and private investment; 

and finally, presence of existing demand is 

represented by taking into account short haul 

(<150 miles) origin-destination (O&D) demand in the metro area. This can be visually 

presented as follows: 

96 Goyal, Rohit et. al. (2021): Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the 

Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets. [See 

https://bit.ly/40ErnTf for more details]. 

97 Many metropolitan areas in the US and elsewhere have more than one centers of activities. 

For example, Washington DC metro have Baltimore to the north, District of Columbia at the core 

and multiple city centers in the northern Virginia 

in the south and southwest. Similar examples of 

polycentricism are abound, especially in northeast corridor of the US, Dallas, and around Los 

Angeles metro areas, just to name a few. 

98 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Assigning weights98 to the variables within 

the broad five categories and using the 

above site suitability analysis framework, 

98 Values of these weights were reached at by 

discussing with subject matter experts within the 

broad ASSURE research community and the 

FAA through technical interchange meetings associated with this research project. Using the 

baseline values, ASSURE produced an excel 

ASSURE identifies the following 100 metro 

areas for likely AAM services:99 

workbook that allows alternative weight assignments leading to understanding sensitivity of location choices. 

99 Lighter shade represents relatively lower suitability while darker shade representing higher suitability. 

99 
 

 

 

... 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

public statements, ASSURE identifies the Matching the above metros against the ex- following 5 likely areas of initial operations:100 

pressed interests of the AAM OEMs and 

likely operating partners, mostly gathered via 

Original Equipment Manufacturer and Lauch City Operating Partners 

Orlando, FL Lilium (2024) 

Blade with BETA (2024-2025), Halo 

New York City, NY (2026), Archer and United (2025), Joby 

and Delta (no date yet) 

Los Angeles, CA Archer (2024), Joby and Delta (no date yet) 

Marina / Santa Cruz, CA Joby (no launch date identified) 

Miami, FL Archer (2024) 

vices, as reported by the ASSURE re- Broadly speaking, there are four types of search. These are aggregated into following AAM aircraft that are likely to enter into ser- 4 categories: 

100 Initial choice of sites will be primarily driven by 

OEM’s business cases where demand triggers 

would play important roles. The framework 

matching demand triggers with operator-OEMs’ 

expressed interests is intended to capture both 

aspects to the extent possible. For example, recent announcement of United-Archer 

[https://bit.ly/3ZF8deP] to begin airport shuttle 

services in Chicago metro area in 2025 show how 

operator airlines’ evolving needs are matched 

with OEM’s readiness and area-specific demand 

triggers. 

100 
Vectored Thrust 

Ari a rcraft that 

uses ony of its 

thrusters for lift 

and cruise 

Lift+ Crul e 

An aircraft that 

has indopond 

thrusters for 

hfhng and 

cruising 

Wingl 

Multlcopt r 

An airer ft that 1s 

nt only equipped 

with llftlng 

thru ter 

Eloctrlc 

Rotorcraft 

An aircraft that 

utilizes a single 

lifting rotor 

(electric 

helicopter or 

octnc autogyro) 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Many of the aircraft that are quite advanced 

in design, testing, certification and evaluation 

process are of vectored thrust categories. 

Joby, Archer, Lilium and Vertical’s aircraft fall 

in this category. Lift + Cruise category aircraft 

by Beta, Elroy, and Pipistrel are in advanced 

process followed by wingless multicopter design by Ehang, Volocopter, and Airbus. Finally, electric rotorcraft, i.e., electric helicopters, are designs popularized by Jaunt Air 

Mobility, Horizon Helicopters, Skyworks Aeronautics, IEROM, etc. 

With staggered levels of automation, AAMs 

are likely to integrate into the NAS serving 

fewer cities initially scaling to multiple cities 

in the medium to longer run [ASSURE 

(2022)]. 

Scale of UAM Operations 

Operations in 

multiple cities with Operations in full automation 

a few cities 

Initial Deployment 

Operations in a few 

cities with limited 

automation 

Operations in a few 

cities with advanced 

automation 

Certification, testing, 

and evaluation 

with advanced 

automation 

101 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Based on the research performed by numerous others, the FAA believes that AAM will 

likely enter into services (EIS) sometime 

around 2025-2026. Starting from limited services to initial launch cities noted earlier, services will be experimental, slow and likely 

gain a gradual trajectory of growth until 2030. 

We expect that initial 5 years or so will be required to resolve many outstanding issues 

including establishing solid AAM business 

cases. Depending upon the sector’s resolving the outstanding issues, this will be followed by a moderate service trajectory during 2030-2040. Beyond that period, we anticipate a sustainable, mature sector on a 

longer-term growth trajectory. 

There are numerous issues and procedural 

hurdles that need to be addressed in order 

for the industry to be on this assumed growth 

trajectory. Some of these may be categorized under the following broad areas: 

• Safety management systems for 

AAM encompassing all areas of 

integrations; 

• Requirements for operations under different weather conditions 

(i.e., IMC/VMC) and procedures; 

• Availability of airspace capacity 

(400’ above ground level (AGL) 

to 4000’ AGL – likely altitude that 

AAM will likely traverse) in busy 

metro areas; 

• Access to airspace via corridors 

and/or agreed upon community 

business rules (or CBRs), or letters of agreement (LOA); 

• Communication issues (i.e., 

voice vs. digital; direct communications with air traffic control 

and/or via 3rd party provider of 

services to AAM (or PSUs) or via 

LOAs; 

• Navigational issues involving 

VFR/IFR or digital flight rules 

(DFR) procedures; 

• Infrastructure capacity particularly with respect to vertipad, 

vertiport, heliport, parking garages and direct access to airport; 

• Issues relating to information security, surveillance and overall 

physical security; 

• Pilot availability. It is widely believed that AAM will begin its entry into services with pilot on 

board. Hence, pilot availability in 

the short run (i.e., 5-10 years 

from EIS) will be critical; 

• Certification requirements: following TC criteria, AAM OEMs 

will require production and operations certifications allowing 

them to mass produce aircraft 

and serve communities using operating certifications; and, 

• Meeting other broad local, state, 

and federal regulations.101 

It is important to note that the broad community has been working already on addressing 

many of the above-mentioned issues over 

the last few years. Inter-agency working 

group under the Advanced Air Mobility Coordination and Leadership Act will likely accelerate addressing and resolving the abovementioned and policy issues faster. 

Despite these outstanding issues and given 

the fact that the AAM services have not yet 

begun using the new aircraft within the US, 

projection of AAM demand, at best, is chal101 For a discussion, see https://bit.ly/3KAbN5P. 

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I f f f 

I f f f 

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

lenging and somewhat hypothetical and arbi- (likely; or potential adjusted by above-distrary.102 Nevertheless, drawing from AS- cussed risk factors) and lower range for deSURE research primarily and other market parture forecasts for the years 2025-2030103 

analysis, we provide an estimate of base in the table below: 

Departure Forecasts*

Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Base 295,530 494,637 827,887 1,385,657 2,319,213 3,881,730

Low 206,871 346,246 579,521 969,960 1,623,449 2,717,211

*': Base (risk‐adjusted potential) is based on linear interpolation of ASSURE forecasts;

Low forecast is 30% lower than base forecasts.

An analysis underlying ASSURE projection 

is used in preparation of NPRM for PoweredLift rulemaking likely to be finalized sometime middle of this year.104 In May 2022, the 

FAA announced that it will certify winged eVTOL aircraft as powered-lift aircraft as “special class” under its 14 CFR 21.17(b) regulations, rather than under the 14 CFR Part 23 

rules used for small fixed-wing aircraft.105 

This change comes after the FAA has previously accepted several G-1 certification basis issue papers from eVTOL companies 

with the understanding that Part 23 rules, 

supplemented by special conditions, were 

102 As reported throughout this document, the 

FAA routinely forecast sectors (i.e., crewed and 

uncrewed air transportation) for which services 

exist, and therefore, a great deal of data exist. For 

AAM services using eVTOLs, neither services nor 

data are available at present. However, a great 

deal of need, particularly for planning and allocation of scarce resources, leading to understanding the sector and its future trends is now essential. In order to meet these needs, the FAA is 

providing the forecasts for overall guidance. We 

plan to update and revise these forecasts once 

services begin and data become widely available.

103 We identify 2025 as likely point of entry in time 

but it depends on numerous factors, some of 

which have been outlined above. Depending on 

resolution of these issues and business case for 

AAM continues to hold, service may begin in 

2025 or soon thereafter. Furthermore, we keep 

the forecast horizon short to 2030 because the 

applicable. It appears that none of the frontrunners in TC process will be affected by this 

change in rules. For example, Archer Aviation stated that the change in FAA’s eVTOL 

certification approach will not impact its timeline to certify its vehicle by the end of 2024. 

In November 2022, Archer introduced its production aircraft, Midnight, which replaces its 

prototype aircraft Maker to be put forth for 

certification. Midnight can cover distances of 

100 miles including back-to-back flights in 

the 20-mile range with approximately ten 

minutes charging time in between flights. It 

will have a payload of over 1,000 pounds and 

industry will undergo rapid changes once it begins service due to inherent dynamism and promises it holds. Hence, we keep the forecast horizon 

short so that we can learn from the data and revise the projected numbers and growth trajectories annually on a rolling basis, like in case of 

UAS sector, drawing from concurrent developments. 

104 See https://bit.ly/3Mhryjo for definition of powered-lift including the NPRM. The NPRM combines ASSURE projection with order book from 

OEMs for regulatory economic analysis. 

105 See https://bit.ly/3UbsyqZ. At present, FAA 

operating rules apply to five operational categories and associated aircraft: domestic, commuter, 

flag, on-demand and supplement carriers. 

Through the powered-lift NPRM, provided it is finalized, the FAA is proposing adding powered-lift 

to the list. 

103 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

can carry four passengers and a pilot.106 In 

December 2022, the proposed airworthiness 

criteria for the Archer Midnight aircraft was 

published in the Federal Register by the 

FAA.107 Recently on March 9, 2023, Archer 

announced that it is nearing completion of 

the final assembly of its first Midnight. All major aero-structures (i.e., wing, tail, and fuselage) have been built and mated together, 

the company announced. A significant portion of the wiring, electronics, actuators and 

other systems have been installed as well. 

With these developments in place, Archer is 

currently targeting to begin flight testing of 

Midnight in mid-2023. This aircraft will be 

used to enable company testing in advance 

of “for credit” certification testing.108 

In addition, the FAA is proposing a Special 

Federal Aviation Regulation (SFAR), ‘Integration of Powered-Lift: Pilot Certification 

and Operations,109 to establish temporary 

operating and pilot certification regulations 

for powered-lift. The SFAR would allow powered-lift operations to begin while the FAA 

collects data needed to establish permanent 

regulations. The FAA anticipates publishing 

this proposed rule in summer 2023 and will 

finalize it by the time the first powered-lift aircraft is certified. 

Capturing only two scenarios that are comparable and drawn from ASSURE projections, we report base and low forecasts in the 

table above.110 Given the impending uncer106 https://bit.ly/40GnUno. 107 See https://bit.ly/436vucv for more details. 

108 See https://bit.ly/40M1Nfh for more details. 

109 See https://bit.ly/3Mi3f4O for more details. 

110 Higher scenarios will be determined by many 

factors including the growth trajectories following 

EIS, types of missions/services, expansion into 

many metro areas, number of departures and 

passengers, commercial success and successful 

integration into NAS. Due to much higher levels 

tainty around EIS, assumed presently sometime around 2025-2026, likely departures 

may reach a level of 295,530 to begin with to 

a cumulative 790,000 in the base case scenario within a couple year (or by 2026 as assumed above). Assuming EIS successful, 

AAM departures will then likely accelerate 

and reach almost 3.9 million a year in a very 

short time (i.e., by the end of 2030), provided 

outstanding integration issues involving new 

entrants have been appropriately addressed 

and resolved. In lower case estimate, the 

likely departures are expected to be around 

207,000 to a level of 553,000 cumulatively by 

2026. It may likely reach around 2.7 million 

by 2030. 

Using the distribution of AAM missions mentioned above, we anticipate these aggregate 

departure projections to serve airport shuttle 

to begin with and followed by air taxi and/or 

some other likely services such as air emergency, search and rescue, organ transportation etc.. Typically, these missions will fly a 

distance of around 60 miles, on average, at 

an average speed of 150 miles per hour. Distance, speed, and correspondingly, altitude 

profiles are drawn from the status of TC of 

aircraft noted above, ASSURE (2022) research and ACRP report #243. There are numerous issues outstanding with respect to 

pricing, performance characteristics including utilization111 and load factors (i.e., number of revenue passengers per departures). 

Taking these into consideration,112 assuming 

of impending uncertainties on the upside, we are 

leaving the upper level of forecasts out of this initial projections.

111 For a discussion on these issues and their impact on AAM business cases, see 

https://bit.ly/40CbOvs. 112 It is not conclusive to what extent lower overall 

load factors (e.g., dead-heading back from revenue missions) and lower utilization will impact 

104 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

low load factors (e.g., 2-3 passengers per de- tively),113 number of passengers correspondpartures for lower and base cases, respec- ing to departure scenarios may be calculated 

and are reported in the table below: 

Passenger Flow* Corresponding to Departures 

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 

Base 886,590 1,483,910 2,483,661 4,156,972 6,957,638 11,645,190 

Low 413,742 692,491 1,159,042 1,939,920 3,246,898 5,434,422 

 

 

 

 

*: 3 passengers per departure and 2 passengers per departures corresponding 

to base and low forecasts, respectively. 

Starting from an anticipated 887,000 passengers annually, a cumulative 2.3 million passengers may be reached soon after EIS by 

2026 in the base case scenario or risk-adjusted potential scenario. In lower range, 

passenger levels may reach cumulatively 

over 1 million passengers by 2026 driven by 

assumptions of lower number of departures 

and load factors. 

Translating the above annual numbers to 

daily departures/passengers (e.g., total departures and passengers divided by 365 

business cases negatively and thus may jeopardize services altogether. Many assumptions have 

been made, and at this point, the FAA is not certain how pricing, lower load factors or utilization 

of aircraft, types of services and market adoption, 

supply chains, funding, manufacturing and role of 

operating partners, infrastructure including access to airspaces and airports/vertiports will ultimately impact the business cases of AAM services. As more information become available in 

the future via research, and information from the 

industry, we plan to improve on these initial projections going forward. 

days), in base case scenario, we calculate a 

few hundred departures transporting a few 

hundreds to around 2,400 passengers daily 

to begin with in 2025. Around 2,100 cumulative daily departures transporting around 

3,000-6,500 cumulative passengers (i.e., 

lower to base cases, respectively) may be attained soon after by 2026. It may likely reach 

a level of over 10,000 daily departures in 

base case transporting around 15,000 daily 

passengers in lower range to around 32,000 

in base case scenario in 2030. 

113 Generally speaking, eVTOLs are assumed to 

have, for majority of vehicles that have been presently designed (over 200), one to four passengers 

with one pilot on board. On average, trips are expected to have a passenger load of three riders 

for airport shuttle, as reported by market studies 

accounting for the shared route model of Air 

Metro [see https://bit.ly/40Wik0t].The base case 

reported in the table (i.e., 3 passengers) draws on 

this recent finding. However, air taxi is expected 

to have much lower passenger load (1 passenger) due to on-demand nature of services and 

associated mobility flexibility. 

105 
 

-

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Estimated Daily Departures/Passengers 

12,000 

10,000 

35,000 

30,000 

810 

10,635 

31,905 

14,889 

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 

Daily Departures 

25,000 

8,000 

20,000 

Daily Passengers 

6,000 

15,000 

4,000 

10,000 

2,000 5,000 

0 0 

Daily Departures (Base) Daily Passengers (Base) Daily Passengers (Low) 

Number and frequency of missions, distance/time, recharging, maintenance time, 

and average daily utilization hours for these 

eVTOL vehicles will determine the number of 

aircraft needed to serve the calculated departures projected in earlier table. Intra-urban and inter-urban swap of aircraft will be 

determined by distance, relative demand, 

and performance characteristics. Number of 

station-specific and time of the day aircraft 

can also be estimated from the above daily 

distribution and utilization of aircraft. 

114 See https://bit.ly/2C57w77 for this calculation. 

Not all of these trips, either commute to work or 

visiting friends/families, can be substituted by 

AAM air taxis. It merely indicates the size of the 

substitution magnitude for calculating latent demand for AAM. 

Both number of departures and passengers 

are relatively small in comparison to likely latent demand. For example, there are closer 

to 225 individual annual trips commuting to 

work and over 400 average annual trips visiting family and friends for 40 miles or less. In 

aggregate, these add up to 200 million trips 

per year by car for shorter distances in the 

US.114 It is reported that there are perhaps 14 

million a day Uber/Lyft trips. An average of 

45,000 flights/day serve over 2.9 million passengers in the US.115 In addition, there are 

over 9,000 commercial helicopters in the 

US.116 All of these may likely provide strong 

115 https://bit.ly/3m0vfPL. 116 See https://ushst.org/. 

106 
 

 

Total projected 

advane4d air 

moblllty ground 

lnfrutrueture awoxi y 

costs •.•••••••••.•••••••••••.••.•••••••. S50 m ion 

Projected numbtf 

olvertlporu 

needed by 2045 

to meet anliclpaled 

dtm,nd .......................................... 6 

• 4 of 1he 6 ~ are pro,ected to be r 

of · swcrure 

202~2045 

Total projected 

advanced air 

mobility ground 

Infrastructure "°'"°"'"""'ely costs .................................. S240m 

Projected number 

ofv rtlporu 

nHded by 2045 

tomeetantic:ipned 

demand ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 77 

77 are prqec:ted~barfl4tofi1s 

a,rpon anfraSll\ld e 

Soul0eGAO cf UM Geomecct~ascf__.,, 2022 I GA0-2J.10S188 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

demand pull factors for airport shuttle to 

begin with followed by air taxi. 

Despite our efforts to provide initial projections of the AAM sector, there are numerous 

factors that may possibly create a shroud of 

uncertainty around the numbers discussed 

above. One of the major challenges of eVTOL entering into the marketplace is infrastructure. In a recently published report, 

GAO (2022)117 estimates that for smaller 

metropolitan areas (1.5-2.5 million population), 6 vertiports will be needed while for 

larger metro areas (7-10 million population), 

the numbers may go up as high as 77. Total 

estimated ground cost for smaller metro areas have been estimated to be $50 million 

while for larger metros, it is almost 5-times 

higher at $240 million. ASSURE (2022) reported that an estimated 75-300 vertiports 

will be required for each metro area. In total, 

ASSURE estimates 2,500-3,500 vertiports 

will be needed to establish a mature AAM 

passenger network nationwide in the US. 

Costs involving setting up such network will 

be expensive as reported in GAO report and 

elsewhere:118 

In order to increase accessibility of vertiports 

for AAM services, air taxi operators have 

been evaluating different approaches to expand the potential network of vertiports or 

117 GAO (2022): Transforming Aviation: Congress 

Should Clarify Certain Tax Exemptions for Advanced Air Mobility; GAO-23-105188. 

takeoff and landing areas (TOLAs). In 2021, 

both Joby and Archer entered into partnerships with parking garage operator REEF 

Technology with the goal of running air taxi 

118 See ASSURE (2022) for a detailed discussion 

drawing on the existing literature. 

107 
 

 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

operations from the rooftops of redesigned 

parking garages.119 

The infrastructure constraint—the availability 

of desirable TOLAs—will be a challenge for 

scaling AAM operations, as they require 

community acceptance and affect issues relating to social equity, noise and environmental impacts. NASA is leading research in 

these areas, and in 2021 it released a report 

with NUAIR (Northeast UAS Airspace Integration Research Alliance, Inc.) and industry 

describing a concept of operations for high 

density vertiport operations.120 Recently, the 

FAA issued an engineering brief providing interim guidance to airport owner/operators 

and their support staff for the design of vertiports for vertical takeoff and landing operations.121 

Other than eVTOL operators, some companies are focusing on developing the infrastructure needs which require partnering with 

local governments and property owners to locate and acquire sites for future vertiports. 

For example, Urban-Air Port, a UK-based 

startup, announced in January 2022 that it 

plans to develop 200 vertiports for eVTOL 

flights in 65 cities to accommodate the anticipated AAM demand.122 Leaders in AAM infrastructure development include Groupe 

ADP and Ferrovial. Groupe ADP is creating 

infrastructure for eVTOL air taxi flights to be 

introduced in Paris when it hosts the 2024 

Summer Olympics. In November 2022, 

Groupe ADP signed MOU with government 

officials in Abu Dhabi to plan, design, develop, and operate vertiport infrastructure for 

future eVTOL services in Abu Dhabi. Ferrovial is a infrastructure group headquartered 

119 https://bit.ly/3ZHz2io. 120 https://go.nasa.gov/40RxJi2. 121 See https://bit.ly/4351vBK for more details. 

122 https://bit.ly/3MkTaUy. 123 https://bit.ly/4381ooU. 

in Spain but has its vertiport division based in 

Irving, Texas. Ferrovial has been partnering 

with Lilium since 2021. In 2022, Ferrovial and 

AECOM (an engineering firm) to identify optimal sites to launch a vertiport network in 

Florida in 2024 or 2025.123 

Engagement with airport operators is essential, especially when airport shuttle is the focus of the service. A recent Airport Cooperative Research Program report (#243) called 

“Urban Air Mobility: An Airport Perspective 

(2023)” laid out a comprehensive framework 

of market assessment capturing three AAM 

use cases; UAM for passenger air mobility, 

air cargo and emergency services. Assessments show substantial growth potential 

across use cases with implications for airport 

applications. The report was initiated to devise a strategy for engaging with airport 

stakeholders to better understand their perspectives, market readiness, views of policy, 

and planning considerations regarding the 

operational integration of UAM into daily airport activities. Incorporating different UAM 

use cases, a guide and toolkit were created 

as companions to present key considerations deemed essential to support airports in 

navigating the likely UAM entrance into airports. The guide is anticipated to assist airport practitioners as they engage in an iterative process to understand how this emerging marketplace with three use cases should 

factor into their business plans, community 

engagement, master planning, and decision 

making framework.124 

Finally, there is also Congressional support 

in developing AAM infrastructure. The Advanced Aviation Infrastructure Modernization 

124 See ACRP Report #243: Urban Mobility: An 

Airport Perspective (2023); available at 

https://bit.ly/3U95DfU. 

108 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

(AAIM) Act was passed by the US House of 

Representatives on June 14, 2022.125 The 

bill provides $25 million in grants over two 

years to plan and build vertiport infrastructure. There are other opportunities, such as 

Pilot Program in Postal Banking126 that may 

hold promises and guidance for accommodating AAM infrastructure needs, particularly 

in rural areas. 

Due to uncertainties associated with numerous issues such as certifications (i.e., type, 

production, and operations) and infrastructure including integration to airspace, market 

revenue estimation for the overall sector has 

been quite wide. As noted earlier, the total 

available market for passenger services is 

estimated to be $500 billion in the United 

States, but AAM is unlikely to garner more 

than $2.5 billion of this market in the near 

term, as previous studies estimate.127 On the 

upside of the estimation, a recent study conducted by Deloitte and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) estimates the AAM 

market in the US to reach approximately US 

$115 billion by 2035, equivalent to 30% of the 

present US commercial air transportation 

market.128 Of that total, US $57 billion is expected to originate in passenger air mobility, 

125 See https://bit.ly/3ZBg9xP. 126 See https://bit.ly/3zwB6PL for more details. 

127 UAM Market Study – Technical Out Brief, Oct. 

2018, Booz-Allen-Hamilton and NASA. [See 

https://go.nasa.gov/3GjAYa1. See also Goyal et. 

al. (2021) reported earlier] 

128 https://bit.ly/3Ku0xaV. 129 See Morgan Stanley’s eVTOL/UAM TAM Revenue in 2050; Base case only; See 

https://mgstn.ly/35JTCnv. 130 See https://bit.ly/3ZMllPb. Furthermore, Blade 

with existing services in many parts of the country 

including the NYC reported first successful completion of a historic piloted test flight of BETA’s 

ALIA-250 electric and vertical aircraft (EVA) at the 

Westchester County Airport in White Plains, New 

York on February 14 this year. Blade reported it 

to be a significant milestone towards transition 

while an equivalent amount is expected to 

come from the cargo market. Finally, Morgan 

Stanley’s eVTOL/UAM total addressable 

market (TAM) estimates revenue to be 

around $2.5 trillion in 2050.129 

In comparison, ASSURE estimated revenue 

to be modest; at around $150 million in 

around 2025-2026 that is likely to reach 

around $2.7 billion in 2030. Combining these 

revenue projections with departure and passengers forecasts reported above, average 

fare per passengers is calculated to be 

around $80-$120 corresponding to base and 

lower range cases, respectively. Recent service announcement130 implies price (i.e., 

around $136-$200 for a full cabin of 4 passengers or $34-$50 per person] to be around 

half that ASSURE-implied prices calculated 

from revenue estimates.131 

Market dynamics underlying AAM are complex, numerous, and quickly evolving. 

COVID-19 has led to an increased adoption 

of virtual work versus commuting and business travel. However, persistence of this 

trend in the long-run is mired in uncertainty.132 Socioeconomic and spatial 

from its use of helicopters to EVA in the near future [see https://bit.ly/3lZgAUY for more details]. 

131 Research studies, industry reports and analysis tend to suggest a broad range of price estimates with varying effects on AAM demand: 

$2.25 per seat mile to as much as $11 per seat 

mile as summarized and reported here: 

https://bit.ly/3KySwS6. 132 Road congestion and associated opportunity 

cost in commuting around metro areas provided 

the most powerful boon for economic and financial justifications for AAM passenger services. 

However, changed working pattern due to working from home (WFH) caused by COVID19 put a 

damper on that earlier economic trade-off, at 

least in the near-term. McKinsey reported results 

of a survey from last year (2022) of workers 

109 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

changes such as population shifts from urban to suburban or rural areas (i.e., de-urbanization) could also affect the various AAM 

use cases differently. AAM services, both 

cargo and passenger, may appear to be unprofitable in the near future, like many other 

services in the beginning. The AAM passenger industry is likely to expand driven initially 

by an inflow of venture capital and experimental services exploring market opportunities. For example, following the numerous 

SPAC mergers for AAM companies two 

years ago, which injected significant capital 

to further their development and commercialization efforts, Wisk Aero secured an additional $450 million investment from Boeing in 

January 2022. Volocopter has also recently 

entered into an agreement that may provide 

up to $1 billion in financing.133 Additionally, 

eVTOL operators like Joby are expanding 

partnerships to operate air taxis in international markets134 and many companies are 

experiencing rising interest and increased orders of their eVTOL aircraft, both in the US 

and globally.135 However, as the capital markets tighten with successive rises in federal 

funds rate,136 securing capital would become 

challenging and making business cases for 

AAM more demanding. According to McKinsey & Company, the broad industry137 saw a 

significant decline, for example, in funding in 

2022 compared to 2021. The industry saw $3 

(N=13,896) in the US [see 

https://mck.co/413Akph] that drew the following 

observations: 58% of the labor force (or, 92 million) say that they can work remotely at least part 

of the time; and around 35% (or 55 millions) WFH 

on a full time basis. Based on these findings and 

analysis, the McKinsey predicts that flexible work 

arrangements are here to stay for longer period. 

Flexible work arrangements may change the earlier economic trade-offs underlying AAM, applicable particularly in air taxi use case.

133 https://bit.ly/3mbpoHd. 134 https://bit.ly/40ZbBCf. 

billion invested in 2022 compared to $7 billion reportedly invested in 2021 due to reasons of global economic slowdown, and the 

reduction in investment by SPACs. 

Order book, on the other hand, appears to be 

still robust, according to McKinsey & Company, with 6,700 pending orders worth $45 

billion. While many of these orders are nonbinding, the increase as well as interests 

from airlines, aircraft charter, and leasing 

companies may demonstrate the commercial 

appeal and inner strength of the AAM business cases.138 

Given the enormous economic potential underlying the AAM sector, coordination led by 

the FAA, in close collaborations with NASA 

and the industry, is allowing numerous integration activities to take place presently. For 

example, under NASA’s National Campaign 

(NC), working groups drawn from the FAA, 

NASA, and numerous stakeholders are focusing on understanding the four key areas 

of AAM integration: aircraft, airspace, community integration, and cross-cutting areas. 

Complimenting this effort, the FAA created 

an internal AAM Integration Executive Council, and is actively working with internal and 

external stakeholders to understand the nature, scope, and likely evolutions of AAM.139 

The FAA also issued a concept of operations 

135 https://bit.ly/3m4Chmt; for a partial list of passenger eVTOL A/Cs orderbook at the end of December, 2022, see https://bit.ly/40K2aXK. 136 See https://bit.ly/3KyjN7e. 137 Includes sustainable aviation using hydrogen 

cells, supersonic aircraft, passenger eVTOL aircraft, surveillance and cargo drones. 

138 For a partial list of passenger eVTOL A/Cs orderbook at the end of December, 2022, see 

https://bit.ly/3ZBwSRD. 139 See https://bit.ly/3nKJLeR. 

110 
 

 

 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

(CONOPS) in June 2020,140 and is likely revise it and also publish a strategic implementation framework in the near future. Furthermore, NASA issued AAM CONOPS corresponding to slightly advanced maturity levels—Urban Air Mobility Maturity Level 4 recently.141 

All these activities are facilitating an evolving 

operational framework for gradual integration 

of AAM into the NAS; e.g., flight testing of 

AAM vehicles at NASA,142 AAM playbook,143 

high-density vertiplex,144 regulatory coordination for safety, traffic management, and international harmonization with other agencies, e.g., European Union Aviation Safety 

Agency (EASA) leading to type certifications.145 

These proactive steps are positioning the 

AAM industry positively towards realizing 

market opportunities. In December 2020, for 

example, Joby Aviation received the first airworthiness approval by the US Air Force 

(USAF) for an eVTOL aircraft under Agility 

Prime and now increased potential value of 

the total contract to more than $75M. Partnering with Delta Air Lines on the other hand, 

targeting airport shuttle in New York and Los 

Angeles, Joby received an upfront equity investment of $60M, thus totaling investment 

from Delta to $200M.146 

In November 2022, Archer and United Airlines announced first commercial electric air 

140 Available here: https://go.nasa.gov/3GjrcEV. 

Revised version (2.0) is expected this spring.

141 See https://go.nasa.gov/3Kykopu for more details. 

142 See https://go.nasa.gov/3MgSyza. 143 See https://go.nasa.gov/3mcXz15. 144 See https://go.nasa.gov/3KxT5LS. 145 See, for example, https://bit.ly/40YxuBU. 146 https://bit.ly/3KxNgyd. 147 https://bit.ly/3UgPjtO. 

taxi route in the US: from southern tip of Manhattan to Newark Liberty International Airport.147 In similar vein, American Airlines has 

reserved delivery slots and secured pre-delivery payments for 50 of Vertical’s VX4 eVTOL, the first of its kind for a major airline in 

the eVTOL market148 American Airlines has 

also placed a conditional preorder of up to 

250 of Vertical’s aircraft in June 2021, with 

an option for an additional 100 units. Lilium 

GMBH, a German company, is developing 

an eVTOL transport network centered on 

Lake Nona in Orlando, Florida. It has partnered with the City of Orlando and a real estate development company to establish a 

vertiport hub in Lake Nona by 2025. It will be 

used for regional, inter-city air mobility services, with travel distances of up to 186 miles 

in 60 minutes by Lilium Jet aircraft currently 

under development.149 

The trend is somewhat similar at the international level as well. For example, EHang, a 

Chinese manufacturer of autonomous aerial 

vehicles (AAVs), established a strategic partnership with UAM pilot cities in Spain, Austria, and China in 2020.150 It also conducted 

demonstration flights in South Korea with its 

two-passenger autonomous aerial vehicle, 

the EHang 216. German AAM companies, 

Lilium and Volocopter, are also working to 

launch passenger air transport services 

within the next few years. Volocopter completed demonstration of air taxi flights in Singapore in 2019 and began to sell tickets for 

148 https://bit.ly/3MgSXBG. 149 https://bit.ly/3Min8Zw. Similar developments 

involving others are abound in the US. FAA routinely collects these information to the extent they 

are useful for understanding broad market developments and forecasts.

150 https://bit.ly/3U6ERoB. 

111 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

commercial service, expected to start in Singapore by 2023.151 Volocopter has also announced plans to introduce air taxi services 

in the US. 

AAM services are likely to face stiff competition from technological advances in industries with close substitutes, such as ground 

transportation (i.e., emerging automated solutions on increasingly electric-powered vehicles). Furthermore, economic and financial 

tradeoffs underlying the emergence of AAM 

may have changed following COVID-19, 

changing travel patterns and perhaps longterm living arrangements. Finally, the high 

costs of urban infrastructure, community acceptance, associated noise, and environmental issues pose considerable challenges 

for AAM TC, PC,152 and eventual community 

acceptance leading to greater adoption. Future AAM operators are also expected to 

comply with new operating requirements and 

other regulations yet to come. 

Despite these challenges, state, local, and 

regional governments are aligning them151 https://bloom.bg/3m9Tj2o. 152 Recent agreements of Archer with Stellantis 

[https://cnb.cx/3Gd4Rcb], Lilium with GKN Aerospace [https://bit.ly/3ZJki2u] and likely others, 

perhaps Joby with Toyota, to mass produce aircraft indicate that the OEMs are positioning post 

TC stages to production and routine operations. 

Archer with Stellantis, for example, have been 

working to stand up manufacturing facility of 

350,000 sq. ft. in Covington, Georgia, to begin 

producing 650 Midnight four-passenger eVTOL 

aircraft/year in 2024 [see https://bit.ly/3nAmdZV]; 

and BETA Technologies, manufacturer of ALIA250, has been making progress on its 188,500 

sq. ft (phase 1) for its aircraft assembly facility in 

South Burlington, VT. Globally, Eve announced 

plans in December, 2022 for its initial production 

facility to be co-located at an Embraer facility in 

Brazil. The modular design of the site, when built, 

will allow for a gradual scaling up and production 

selves with the manufacturers and likely operators. For example, the city of Los Angeles 

announced the creation of its Urban Air Mobility Partnership in December 2020. It is a 

public-private partnership, called Urban 

Movement Labs that will evaluate barriers 

and solutions leading towards facilitating air 

taxi services in Los Angeles by 2023 and 

broader uses during Olympics games in 

2028.153 In August 2022, Ohio published its 

first AAM framework.154 In February, 2023, 

the Virginia Innovation Partnership Corporation (VIPC) with the State of Virginia’s Office 

of the Secretary of Commerce and Trade 

published an economic impact study of 

AAM.155 Other entities, including the Canadian AAM Consortium (CAAM,) have also 

studied the impacts of AAM on regional 

economies.156 

In order to facilitate AAM entry into local 

transportation networks, numerous local and 

state entities have begun the process of preparing and self-identifying as early 

adopters.157 Furthermore, targeting investof up to 250 eVTOLs per year, an attainable target. On April 5, 2023, Volocopter announced 

opening of a new hangar that will host the company’s final assembly line with an airfield to conduct development flight tests as well as quality 

checks. Volocopter’s production facilities in 

Bruchsal will have the capacity, and importantly 

the regulatory approval, to assemble 50+ VoloCity aircraft each year to deploy around the world 

[see https://bit.ly/3zSIQMl for more details].These 

demonstrate the seriousness of the efforts by 

OEMs. We expect similar steps in setting up manufacturing facilities to follow from other OEMs as 

well. 

153 https://bit.ly/3Kymiq8; see also 

https://bit.ly/3Gj9Tnw. 154 https://bit.ly/4335Q8t. 155 https://bit.ly/3U9abD2. 156 https://bit.ly/3Kygo8o. 157 See https://go.nasa.gov/433wFJQ. 

112 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

ments in regional air mobility (RAM) by utilizing the country’s vast underutilized airport infrastructure may compliment and accelerate 

local and state initiatives on emerging markets, including those targeted by AAM, likely 

transforming the entire NAS in the future.158 

As the sector is initiated with initial entry into 

services outlined in this section, new initiatives will be undertaken with new missions 

envisioned and operationalized. The FAA, 

together with numerous stakeholders including the industry, and NASA will be keeping a 

keen eye on understanding overall trends in 

AAM. It is likely that AAM services will become a reality in the US by 2025-2026 and 

will become incrementally available in urban 

and suburban areas followed by an accelerated growth trajectories targeted to reach farther and distant travel destinations and 

routes over time. With this anticipated travelscape imagined and drawn for the next few 

years, as more information becomes available, the FAA will revise emerging trends and 

forecasts for AAM reported in this section in 

the near future. 

158 See https://go.nasa.gov/3m9Ulvi for more details. 

113 
 

 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Forecast Uncertainties 

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, 

at least in the near-term, by the pace of recovery from the impacts to the U.S. and 

global economies and the aviation industry 

resulting from the novel coronavirus (COVID19). It does go without saying that terrorism 

remains among the greatest world-wide risks 

to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident 

aimed at aviation could have an immediate 

and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be greater than its 

impact on overall economic activity. 

In addition, changes in the geo-political landscape could lead to outcomes very different 

than the forecasts provided in this document. 

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine represents a 

very large uncertainty to this year’s forecast. 

The impacts are still evolving and dependent 

in large part on the outcome of the armed 

conflict in Ukraine. While there was an initial 

negative impact on airline bookings as well 

as a surge in oil prices, those impacts have 

diminished over time. The impact of the economic sanctions on Russia have pushed the 

Russian economy (the world’s 12th largest 

as of 2021) into a sharp and prolonged recession that may have broad spillover effects 

to the global economy. European economic 

growth slowed in 2022 as Europe moved to 

restrict trade with Russia and its allies, and 

reduce its dependence on energy from Russia. Many forecasters see continued low European economic growth in 2023 as well due 

to the impacts of the conflict. In the longer 

run, most analysts are seeing a return to 

higher tensions between Russia and the 

West resulting in higher expenditures on defense that may push taxes higher, and leave 

consumers with less money to spend on 

items like air travel. 

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus 

(COVID-19) that began in early 2020 resulted in the largest decline in aviation activity since the jet era began in the late 1950’s. 

While aviation activity has almost fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a 

good deal of uncertainty about the long run 

path of aviation activity once the recovery 

from the 2020 downturn is complete. There 

are questions as to whether or not the strategies that U.S. and foreign carriers are employing to recover from the downturn in demand will be successful in a post-COVID environment. Other questions surround the 

stability of consumer attitudes and behaviors 

towards aviation in a post-COVID environment, as well as the breadth and depth of the 

and the speed and nature of the economic 

recovery, all of which apply both domestically 

and globally. 

The future direction of oil prices presents another considerable uncertainty in producing 

the forecast. The FAA’s baseline forecast 

(derived from economic assumptions in IHS 

Global Insight’s December 2022 U.S. macro 

forecast and 30-Year Focus released during 

December 2022) calls for oil prices to fall 

from $95 per barrel in 2022 to $75 per barrel 

114 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

in 2023. Over the long term, the FAA baseline forecast assumes that oil prices will rise 

gradually to about $91 per barrel in 2030 and 

about $118 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2043. However, there are 

other oil price forecasts that are considerably 

more aggressive than the FAA base forecast 

such as the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in March 2023. By 2030, it anticipates 

the spot price of oil will reach $106 per barrel 

and by 2043, $153 per barrel, considerably 

above the FAA base forecast of $118. Over 

the long run, lower oil prices give consumers 

an impetus for additional spending, including 

air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil prices turn out 

to be higher than the FAA forecast, we would 

expect lower spending on air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel to airlines and 

reduced industry profitability. 

The baseline forecast incorporates additional 

infrastructure spending in 2023 and beyond. 

However, there is considerable uncertainty 

as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of 

these programs that ultimately determines 

the impact on the future growth of the U.S. 

economy. In addition, how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over 

the next several years continues to evolve. 

Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along 

with increased financial stability could occur. 

However, in light of the recent RussiaUkraine conflict there is an increased possibility of an outcome that leads to greater 

global economic fragmentation due to rising 

tensions resulting in slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that the 

global economic recovery that began at the 

end of 2020 will continue but at a slower pace 

in 2023. Thereafter, the baseline forecast 

assumes that China and India will be growth 

engines for emerging economies. The forecast assumes China successfully transitions 

the economy from heavy reliance on manufacturing and resource industries to one 

more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its economy more 

competitive. Many analysts are concerned 

that in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 

China moves closer to Russia, limiting opportunities to further transition its economy 

away from manufacturing and resource intensive industries. In the case of India, the 

impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy prices and food prices may put pressure 

on trade and fiscal deficits resulting in a slowdown of reforms. 

In the United States, economic growth in the 

near term is expected to be slow as the impacts of the Federal Reserve’s moves to reduce inflation by raising interest rates are felt 

by consumers and businesses. The forecast 

anticipates that inflation returns to acceptable levels by 2024. Over the forecast horizon 

economic growth (real GDP) remains below 

2 percent as population growth and productivity growth remain lower than historic averages. The forecast does not assume any 

measure of fiscal restraint will be implemented, despite government debt as percent 

of GDP exceeding 100 percent and approaching levels that were last seen at the 

end of World War 2. In Japan, the United 

Kingdom, and the European Union economic 

growth over the next few years will be well 

below rates seen over the past few years as 

these regions recovered from the COVID-19 

recession. Demand growth will remain slow 

in these regions over the forecast horizon as 

they continue to be constrained by structural 

economic problems (high debt, slow popula115 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

tion growth, weak public finances, for example) and political instability. In most of the 

major advanced economies, governments 

need to shore up their finances after the increases in government spending to offset the 

impacts of COVID-19. There exists a nontrivial possibility that authorities will either act 

prematurely or be excessively timid and late 

in taking necessary steps to maintain a 

healthy global economy. The current forecasts call for strong passenger growth for 

travel between the United States and other 

world regions, especially over the next few 

years. An unexpected slowing of worldwide 

economic activity could push the return of international passenger demand to pre-COVID 

levels beyond our current forecast of 2024. 

Although U.S. airline finances have been 

decimated as a result of COVID-19 and the 

fall in demand, the outlook for further consolidation either through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or bankruptcy appears to be rather limited, with one exception: a planned 

merger between JetBlue Airways and Spirit 

Airlines, pending regulatory approval. Ultra 

low-cost carriers which focus on domestic 

leisure traffic have been fastest to recover 

during the pandemic, putting them in relatively strong positions in recent quarters, and 

creating the opportunity for a merger. 

Based on FY 2022 data, the top 6 (American, 

Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska and JetBlue) accounted for about 82 percent of the 

U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic, and 

a combined JetBlue and Spirit would make 

up about 10 percent. For the large network 

carriers, the steps they have taken to increase their liquidity have reduced the risk of 

bankruptcy in the next few years. However, 

if the demand recovery is slower than expected, the increase in debt that these carriers are servicing may be a burden and increase the possibility of a bankruptcy or liquidation. While the announced merger of 

JetBlue and Spirit shows that in the right circumstances, consolidation among low cost 

carriers can happen, in general, the risk associated with a merger today compared to 

pre-COVID has increased due to the poorer 

financial condition of carriers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleets of regional carriers. 

While the recovery in air travel demand from 

the COVID downturn is projected to be robust, we are not projecting a uniform recovery across all segments. As network carriers 

continue to adjust the size and breadth of 

their networks in anticipation of the postCOVID environment, they are continuing to 

move forward with plans to significantly reduce the numbers of small regional jets they 

will need. Prior to the COVID downturn in 

2020, strong air travel demand has not ensured financial stability for regional carriers, 

as the bankruptcy filings of Republic Airways 

in 2016, Great Lakes Airlines in 2018 and 

Trans States Airlines in 2020 have shown. 

Financially strong and well positioned regional carriers may see increased opportunities for regional flying as a result of the network carrier actions, but the overall impact 

will most likely reduce opportunities for many 

regional carriers. In addition to managing 

changing relationships with network carriers, 

regional carriers have struggled with pilot 

shortages that were exacerbated during the 

pandemic recovery. The downturn prompted 

mainline carriers to reduce costs by, among 

other measures, offering voluntary retirements to flight crews but, as activity picked 

up, they drew replacements from the ranks 

of regionals, causing additional shortages for 

those carriers. To attract and recruit crews, 

116 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

some carriers have raised salaries and offered bonuses, further increasing financial 

pressures and possibly leading to new consolidation in the regional airline industry. 

The general aviation sector did suffer a 

downturn in activity in 2020 due to the impacts of COVID-19, but the magnitude of the 

decline was much less than the decline in 

commercial aviation. By the end of 2021 

most sectors, including corporate and business aviation, were at or exceeding preCOVID activity levels and GA flight hours exceeded pre-COVID levels. Once returning to 

pre-COVID levels of activity, future growth in 

business and corporate aviation is based 

largely upon the prospects for economic 

growth and corporate profits. Uncertainty in 

these leading indicators poses a risk to the 

forecast, but the risk is not limited to these 

factors. Other influences, such as potential 

environmental regulations and taxes do not 

seem to be as much of a concern in the short 

term, but over the long term, uncertainties 

about the direction of these influences may 

place downward pressure on the forecast. 

Overall activity at FAA and contract towers 

rose 10.2 percent in 2022, while activity at 

large and medium hub airports (64 in total) 

increased 24.2 percent and 14.9 percent, respectively, in 2022, leading to a summer of 

congestion and delays. While FAA’s baseline 

forecast calls for operations at FAA and contract towers to return to pre-COVID levels of 

activity by 2023, in the long run, operations 

at large and medium hub airports grow faster 

than the overall national trend and congestion and delays could become critical limits to 

growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there 

will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the 

projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even 

more congestion and delays, it is likely that 

the forecasts of both demand and operations 

would not be achieved. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of larger regional 

jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS and 

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles into 

the national airspace system will make the 

FAA’s job more challenging. For example, in 

adding these new vehicles to the system, 

they could replace existing traditional aircraft. This change in the mix of aircraft will 

most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the growth in operations 

over the forecast period. 

Increasing concerns about aviation's environmental impacts could potentially limit or 

delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow 

to meet national economic and mobility 

needs. Airspace modernization and airport 

expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, and water quality. Climate change is 

also of concern and could limit aviation 

growth. In Europe, concerns about climate 

change are leading to restrictions on airport 

expansion activities and proposals to limit 

short-haul domestic flights. Community concerns across the U.S. about aviation noise 

have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. 

Without effective measures to mitigate and 

abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to 

support currently forecasted aviation growth 

may be delayed. Similarly, community concerns about environmental and/or other con117 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

siderations (e.g., privacy concerns) associated with UAS, AAM, and commercial space 

launch activity could impact growth in these 

aviation areas. 

In addition to providing economic benefits, 

technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide 

benefits in terms of reduced emissions that 

impact air quality and climate change; many 

technologies that improve fuel efficiency also 

result in reduced noise. Airlines are increasing their use of sustainable aviation fuels, 

which provides benefits in terms of reduced 

impacts of aviation on climate change and air 

quality. The implementation of the Carbon 

Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach 

that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations 

around the world is used, and will help to further address the impacts of aviation on climate change. Industry, the U.S. government, and international aviation, through 

ICAO, have all set an ambitious goal of moving the sector to net zero carbon dioxide 

emissions by 2050. Continued advancements and fleetwide uptake of sustainable 

aviation fuels and new aircraft and engine 

technologies that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and reduced emissions are required 

to ensure that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the in-service fleet, which in turn may dampen the 

growth of civil aviation. 

Widespread deployment of UAS and AAM 

vehicles, and the electrification of conventional general aviation and short haul aircraft 

are other potential near term tools for reducing aviation emissions, provided they replace 

traditional aircraft in the movement of people 

and goods and their power requirements are 

met using sustainable sources. Otherwise, 

such vehicles would result in a net life-cycle 

increase in environmental impacts. The expansion of commercial space launch activity 

could also change the mix of aircraft in service, with associated impacts on aviation 

noise and emissions. The emissions from 

commercial space operations are expected 

to have a negative impact on both climate 

change and the ozone layer; however, the 

magnitude of the impacts is unknown at this 

time with the various fuel types currently 

used to launch vehicles. 

118 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios 

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity. 

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-

year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were 

used. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from IHS Markit’s 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

Scenario Assumptions 

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes a mild recession in the first half of 

2023 followed by stronger activity that keeps 

growth positive for the full year. Following a 

pick-up in the few years immediately after, 

growth edges back to about trend for the remainder of the forecast. Efforts to bring inflation down slow GDP growth in the near term 

and raise the unemployment rate to about 

5.5 percent by the end of 2023. Subsequent 

years see a gradual reduction in interest 

rates leading to a strengthening economy 

and lower unemployment. After the oil price 

surge in 2022, crude retreats as global economic activity, and energy demand, slows. 

Thereafter, oil price remains roughly flat, balanced by upward pressure from decreasing 

supply and downward from technological innovation. 

August 2022 US Economy: The 30-Year Focus were utilized. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create “high” and 

“low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecasts. 

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios 

use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS 

Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create high and 

low cases. 

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic scenario is characterized by a faster resolution 

to the Russia-Ukraine conflict resulting in 

lower energy prices, and GDP growth that remains positive throughout the forecast. 

Near-term differences include GDP growth of 

1.2 percent in 2023 compared to 0.3 percent 

in the baseline, driven mainly by stronger 

consumer spending. Consumer spending 

rises 2.2 percent in 2023 and 1.3 percent in 

2024, versus 1.3 percent and 1.1 percent in 

the base forecast. Stronger spending results 

from lower energy expenditures and increased confidence due to lessened political 

tensions. The unemployment rate rises but 

2-3 tenths less than in the baseline. 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this 

forecast, the worse outcome is mainly due to 

119 
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, ... 

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I 1\. '- ~ 

\ \ ""'

,,,,-- \ \../ 

\ 

, 

- - -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict which 

leads to higher energy prices and intensifies 

supply-chain disruptions. GDP growth in 

2023 is -0.5 percent compared to 0.3 percent 

in the baseline. Over the forecast horizon, 

average GDP growth is six tenths slower 

than in the baseline. Contributing to slower 

GDP growth in this scenario, business capital investments and residential housing investments both grow more slowly than in the 

baseline, resulting in lower overall productivity growth. The combination of supply chain 

problems and consumer hesitancy (spending 

is about half the rate in the base case) 

causes businesses to scale back investments. Oil prices rise faster than the baseline 

throughout the forecast and are $85 per barrel higher by 2043. In the near term, the unemployment rate rises about 2 percentage 

points higher than the baseline. 

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita 

Annual Percent Change 

7.0 

6.0 

5.0 

4.0 

3.0 

2.0 

1.0 

0.0 

-1.0 

-2.0 

-3.0 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

Source: IHS Markit 

120 
■ ■ ■ 

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

U.S. Population 

2022 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

300

 320

 340

 360

 380

 400 

Population ( millions) 

Source: IHS Markit 

U.S. Unemployment Rate

 7.5

 7.0 

6.5

 6.0

 5.5

 5.0

 4.5

 4.0

 3.5 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

Source: IHS Markit 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

% Unemployed 

121 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost 

0 

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140 

160 

180 

200 

Price per Barrel ($) 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

Source: IHS Markit 

The price of energy is one of the drivers in goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

the growth of consumer prices over the fore- rise somewhat slower than the baseline. In 

cast period. In the optimistic case, slow the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages 

growth of energy prices and import prices and import prices all rise more rapidly comcounteracts faster growth of other consumer pared to the baseline. 

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers 

220 

Index Value (2021 = 100) 200 

180 

160 

140 

120 

100 

80 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Source: IHS Markit 

122 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Alternative Forecasts 

Enplanements 

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2023-2043 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 3.0 and 3.9 percent, respectively). 

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a slightly quicker pace, averaging 3.5 percent per year (up 3.4 percent domestically 

and 4.3 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the 

end of the forecast period in 2043, system 

passengers in the optimistic case are 9 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.7 billion, 

137 million greater than in the baseline. 

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened personal income growth 

and consumer confidence combined with 

high inflation, leading to higher interest rates, 

and curtailed investment and consumer 

spending. In this scenario, enplanements 

grow an average of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up 1.5 percent and international up 

3.3 percent). In the pessimistic case, system 

passengers in 2043 are 24 percent below the 

baseline case, totaling 1.2 billion, or 379 million fewer than in the baseline. 

1,800 

1,600 

1,400 

1,200 

1,000 

800 

600 

400 

System Enplanements 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

million 

123 
 

- - -

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Revenue Passenger Miles 

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2023-2043), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 3.2 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 4.6 

percent annually. 

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 4.0 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.6 and 

5.0 percent, respectively). 

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.4 

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.7 percent a year while international traffic grows 4.1 percent annually. 

System Revenue Passenger Miles 

billion 

2,100 

1,900 

1,700 

1,500 

1,300 

1,100 

900 

700 

500 

Pessimistic 

Available Seat Miles 

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 3.4 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 3.0 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 4.3 percent a year in international markets. 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

Fiscal Year 

Baseline Optimistic 

In the optimistic case, capacity grows somewhat faster than in the baseline forecast, averaging 3.8 percent annually system-wide 

(3.4 and 4.6 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 

124 
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment. 

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 1.5 percent annually and international up 3.7 percent annually).

billion 

2,600 

2,400 

2,200 

2,000 

1,800 

1,600 

1,400 

1,200 

1,000 

800 

600 

Load Factor 

System Available Seat Miles 

Fiscal Year 

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. System load factor rises from 

81.8 percent in 2022 to 85.4 (optimistic), 85.1 

(pessimistic), and 85.4 (baseline) percent in 

2043. 

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers). 

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 83.5 percent to 86.7 

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic 

percent in the baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. 

The international load factor rises in the 

baseline from 76.6 percent to 82.3 percent; 

in the optimistic to 82.3 percent; and in the 

pessimistic to 82.2 percent. This reflects in 

part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario. 

125 
 

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Yield 

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.2 percent annually, rising 

from 15.38 cents in 2022 to 19.67 cents in 

2043. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 15.40 cents in 2022 

to 19.32 cents in 2043. International yield 

rises from 15.30 cents in 2022 to 20.53 cents 

in 2043. 

System yield rises in the optimistic case at a 

slower rate than in the baseline, up 0.8 percent annually to 18.17 cents in 2043. Domestic yield increases to 17.61 cents while 

international yield increases to 19.57 cents. 

The moderate growth in yield in both cases 

is due to advancements in technology, gains 

in productivity, and modestly rising fuel 

prices. 

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 2.3 percent annually, reaching 

24.58 cents by 2043 (25.22 cents domestically and 23.31 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and markedly higher energy prices 

than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher 

costs of fuel, labor, and capital. 

126 
TABLE A‐1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2022‐2043

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2022E 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2022‐23 2023‐28 2023‐33 2023‐38 2023‐43

Economic Assumptions

Real Personal Consumption Pessimistic 42,111 41,773 42,749 45,529 48,142 51,072 ‐0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Expenditure per Capita Baseline 42,266 42,814 45,584 49,978 55,230 61,329 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%

(2012 $) Optimistic 42,462 43,982 47,884 53,012 58,869 65,115 3.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%Refiners Acquisition Cost ‐ Pessimistic 94.3 88.9 106.7 130.7 161.7 198.0 ‐5.8% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1%Average ‐ $ Per Barrel Baseline 93.4 84.3 89.7 98.6 104.3 112.7 ‐9.8% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5%

Optimistic 91.5 76.2 78.2 80.6 86.5 94.1 ‐16.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.88 3.06 3.59 4.22 5.00 5.96 6.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%All Urban, 1982‐84 = 1 Baseline 2.88 3.02 3.38 3.75 4.17 4.64 5.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Optimistic 2.88 3.00 3.32 3.64 3.94 4.25 4.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 4.1 5.8 5.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 38.6% ‐2.4% ‐2.2% ‐1.3% ‐1.0%

(%) Baseline 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 10.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Optimistic 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 6.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Source: IHS Markit

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

127 
TABLE A‐2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2022‐2043

Variable Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2022E 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2022‐23 2023‐28 2023‐33 2023‐38 2023‐43

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,110.4 1,123.6 1,265.7 1,434.3 1,575.2 1,747.1 1.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

(BIL) Baseline 1,110.4 1,230.8 1,401.4 1,613.2 1,888.4 2,223.3 10.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

Optimistic 1,110.4 1,295.9 1,500.1 1,739.5 2,052.3 2,413.3 16.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 907.9 931.2 1,069.7 1,222.6 1,341.3 1,487.6 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4%

(BIL) Baseline 907.9 1,017.4 1,184.4 1,376.8 1,610.8 1,897.9 12.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2%

Optimistic 907.9 1,070.5 1,268.3 1,485.3 1,751.6 2,060.8 17.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Enplanements Pessimistic 828.4 846.3 893.3 997.8 1,082.4 1,186.4 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

(MIL) Baseline 828.4 902.3 992.0 1,144.3 1,332.2 1,565.8 8.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8%

Optimistic 828.4 942.6 1,066.4 1,243.7 1,457.5 1,703.1 13.8% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 6,862.4 6,694.5 7,217.7 8,019.8 8,681.3 9,488.2 ‐2.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8%(MIL) Baseline 6,862.4 7,255.7 8,002.8 9,089.0 10,515.8 12,247.9 5.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7%

Optimistic 6,862.4 7,616.5 8,583.0 9,832.4 11,460.9 13,308.9 11.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,011.0 7,637.1 7,676.0 8,250.6 8,738.1 9,338.9 ‐4.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%

(000s) Baseline 8,011.0 8,096.1 8,502.6 9,448.3 10,727.6 12,293.1 1.1% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1%

Optimistic 8,011.0 8,440.1 9,133.4 10,253.2 11,727.9 13,366.0 5.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 15.38 15.67 17.29 19.03 21.59 24.58 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%

(cents) Baseline 15.38 15.50 16.52 17.51 18.54 19.67 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Optimistic 15.38 15.35 16.29 17.06 17.63 18.17 ‐0.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%

Includes domestic and international activity. *

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

128 
TABLE A‐3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2022‐2043

Variable Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2022E 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2022‐23 2023‐28 2023‐33 2023‐38 2023‐43

Domestic Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 832.8 848.2 863.9 950.9 1,039.3 1,146.3 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%(BIL) Baseline 832.8 888.3 961.7 1,106.2 1,304.3 1,554.5 6.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8%

Optimistic 832.8 922.8 1,035.9 1,208.2 1,432.6 1,692.4 10.8% 2.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.1%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 695.2 716.2 740.0 825.0 900.7 993.8 3.0% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%

(BIL) Baseline 695.2 750.1 823.7 959.8 1,130.3 1,347.6 7.9% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0%

Optimistic 695.2 779.3 887.4 1,048.3 1,241.6 1,467.2 12.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2%

Enplanements Pessimistic 737.8 764.4 779.3 857.5 923.8 1,005.9 3.6% 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%

(MIL) Baseline 737.8 800.5 867.4 997.5 1,159.2 1,363.9 8.5% 1.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7%

Optimistic 737.8 831.7 934.6 1,089.6 1273.5 1,485.1 12.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,573.4 5,451.9 5,449.7 5,897.2 6,339.3 6,877.9 ‐2.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%

(MIL) Baseline 5,573.4 5,710.6 6,068.8 6,864.4 7,962.1 9,336.9 2.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5%

Optimistic 5,573.4 5,933.5 6,539.4 7,499.9 8,749.3 10,168.7 6.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 7,369.7 7,070.7 6,914.4 7,317.5 7,691.2 8,156.1 ‐4.1% ‐0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7%

(000s) Baseline 7,369.7 7,391.9 7,670.4 8,472.8 9,584.9 10,968.0 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0%

Optimistic 7,369.7 7,673.0 8,251.5 9,228.3 10,511.6 11,934.4 4.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 15.40 15.65 17.67 19.75 22.28 25.22 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

(cents) Baseline 15.40 15.46 16.52 17.40 18.30 19.32 0.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

Optimistic 15.40 15.29 16.16 16.74 17.19 17.61 ‐0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

129 
TABLE A‐4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2022‐2043

Variable Scenario

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

2022E 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2022‐23 2023‐28 2023‐33 2023‐38 2023‐43

International AviationActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 277.7 275.5 401.8 483.4 536.0 600.8 ‐0.8% 7.8% 5.8% 4.5% 4.0%

(BIL) Baseline 277.7 342.5 439.7 507.0 584.1 668.8 23.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.4%

Optimistic 277.7 373.1 464.1 531.3 619.7 720.9 34.4% 4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 212.7 215.0 329.6 397.6 440.7 493.9 1.1% 8.9% 6.3% 4.9% 4.2%

(BIL) Baseline 212.7 267.3 360.7 417.0 480.5 550.3 25.7% 6.2% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7%

Optimistic 212.7 291.2 380.8 437.0 510.0 593.6 36.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 90.6 81.9 114.0 140.3 158.6 180.6 ‐9.6% 6.8% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0%

(MIL) Baseline 90.6 101.8 124.6 146.8 173.0 201.9 12.4% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

Optimistic 90.6 110.9 131.9 154.1 184.0 218.0 22.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,288.9 1,242.6 1,768.0 2,122.5 2,342.0 2,610.3 ‐3.6% 7.3% 5.5% 4.3% 3.8%

(MIL) Baseline 1,288.9 1,545.1 1,934.0 2,224.6 2,553.7 2,911.0 19.9% 4.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2%

Optimistic 1,288.9 1,683.0 2,043.6 2,332.5 2,711.7 3,140.2 30.6% 4.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 641.3 566.4 761.6 933.1 1,046.9 1,182.8 ‐11.7% 6.1% 5.1% 4.2% 3.8%

(000s) Baseline 641.3 704.3 832.2 975.5 1,142.7 1,325.1 9.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 641.3 767.1 882.0 1,024.9 1,216.4 1,431.7 19.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 15.30 15.72 16.43 17.54 20.18 23.31 2.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.0%

(cents) Baseline 15.30 15.60 16.53 17.77 19.08 20.53 2.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

Optimistic 15.30 15.50 16.58 17.83 18.71 19.57 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

130 
 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

Appendix B: Forecast Tables 

131 
 

TABLE 1

SHORT U.S. ‐TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2022 FISCAL YEAR 2023 FISCAL YEAR 2024

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal ConsumptionExpenditure per Capita

(2012 $) 42,056 42,168 42,348 42,492 42,792 42,824 42,809 42,832 42,882 42,946 43,038 43,150

Year over year change ‐2.6% 1.9% 16.1% 6.9% 7.1% 4.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost ‐ Average

(Dollars per barrel) 76.43 92.42 109.78 95.07 87.42 86.93 79.98 82.82 86.10 84.46 81.33 83.29

Year over year change ‐27.5% 21.1% 148.6% 74.2% 91.2% 30.4% 9.0% 3.6% ‐10.6% ‐10.3% ‐5.2% ‐10.6%Consumer Price Index

(1982‐84 = 1) 2.78 2.85 2.92 2.96 2.99 3.02 3.03 3.06 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.12Year over year change 1.2% 1.9% 4.8% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Source: IHS Markit

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

132 
 TABLE

2

LONG U.S. ‐TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL PERSONAL REFINERS'

REAL GROSS CONSUMPTION CONSUMER PRICE ACQUISITION COST

DOMESTIC PRODUCT EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA INDEX AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2012 $) (2012 $) (1982‐84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)

Historical2010 15,542 34,403 2.17 74.61

2015 17,310 36,721 2.37 56.69

2019 18,916 39,426 2.54 59.77

2020 18,582 38,441 2.58 43.15

2021 19,339 40,712 2.67 58.91

2022E 19,966 42,266 2.88 93.42

Forecast2023 20,024 42,814 3.02 84.29

2028 21,805 45,584 3.38 89.68

2033 23,740 49,978 3.75 98.57

2038 26,083 55,230 4.17 104.30

2043 28,822 61,329 4.64 112.70

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 1.9%

2022‐23 0.3% 1.3% 5.1% ‐9.8%

2023‐33 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6%

2023‐43 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 1.5%

Source: IHS Markit

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

133 
 TABLE

3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

JAPAN / PACIFIC

BASIN / CHINA /

EUROPE / LATIN AMERICA / OTHER ASIA /

AFRICA / CARIBBEAN / AUSTRALIA / NEW

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA MIDDLE EAST MEXICO ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2010 1,400 21,233 4,624 18,977 64,628

2015 1,557 23,305 5,187 24,465 74,635

2019 1,696 25,464 5,399 29,468 84,090

2020 1,610 24,063 5,042 29,215 81,448

2021 1,691 25,421 5,386 31,056 86,310

2022E 1,751 26,402 5,575 32,033 88,826

Forecast2023 1,764 26,560 5,655 33,226 90,283

2028 1,923 29,329 6,509 40,863 104,0612033 2,093 32,060 7,551 48,965 118,5402038 2,282 34,930 8,720 57,906 134,5932043 2,488 37,955 10,022 67,550 152,024

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 4.5% 2.7%

2022‐23 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 3.7% 1.6%

2023‐33 1.7% 1.9% 2.9% 4.0% 2.8%

2023‐43 1.7% 1.8% 2.9% 3.6% 2.6%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

134 

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
TABLE

4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS

– SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

AMERICA UNITED

CALENDAR YEAR (USMCA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 18,794 11,195 2,662 4,220 7,4902015 20,934 11,668 2,936 4,446 10,961

2019 22,877 12,626 3,176 4,565 14,166

2020 22,137 11,832 2,825 4,367 14,480

2021 23,426 12,459 3,038 4,464 15,654

2022E 23,914 12,871 3,172 4,518 16,096

Forecast2023 24,004 12,851 3,148 4,571 16,831

2028 26,259 13,884 3,355 4,798 21,468

2033 28,648 14,769 3,600 4,993 26,300

2038 31,547 15,646 3,865 5,172 31,629

2043 34,645 16,545 4,160 5,332 37,079

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 6.6%

2022‐23 0.4% ‐0.2% ‐0.8% 1.2% 4.6%

2023‐33 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.9% 4.6%

2023‐43 1.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 4.0%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

135 

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
TABLE 5

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS U.S. 1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 631 77 709 553 231 7842015 692 90 782 625 261 8862019 806 104 910 748 292 1,040

2020 461 49 509 420 129 5482021 507 49 556 476 92 567

2022E 738 91 828 695 213 908Forecast2023 800 102 902 750 267 1,017

2028 867 125 992 824 361 1,184

2033 997 147 1,144 960 417 1,377

2038 1,159 173 1,332 1,130 481 1,611

2043 1,364 202 1,566 1,348 550 1,898

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% ‐0.7% 1.2%

2022‐23 8.5% 12.4% 8.9% 7.9% 25.7% 12.1%

2023‐33 2.2% 3.7% 2.4% 2.5% 4.5% 3.1%

2023‐43 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2%

Source: Forms 41 and 298‐C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

136 
TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD FISCAL YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical2010 677 553 81.7 281 231 82.1 958 784 81.8

2015 740 625 84.6 323 261 80.7 1,063 886 83.4

2019 879 748 85.2 352 292 82.9 1,231 1,040 84.5

2020 612 420 68.6 178 129 72.3 789 548 69.5

2021 657 476 72.4 171 92 53.5 828 567 68.5

2022E 833 695 83.5 278 213 76.6 1,110 908 81.8

Forecast2023 888 750 84.4 343 267 78.0 1,231 1,017 82.7

2028 962 824 85.7 440 361 82.0 1,401 1,184 84.5

2033 1,106 960 86.8 507 417 82.2 1,613 1,377 85.3

2038 1,304 1,130 86.7 584 481 82.3 1,888 1,611 85.3

2043 1,554 1,348 86.7 669 550 82.3 2,223 1,898 85.4

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.7% 1.9% ‐0.1% ‐0.7% 1.2% 1.2%

2022‐23 6.7% 7.9% 23.4% 25.7% 10.8% 12.1%

2023‐33 2.2% 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2.7% 3.1%2023‐43 2.8% 3.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 3.2%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

137 

Source: Forms 41 and 298‐C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL

ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 231

2015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 261

2019 28 63 13 104 121 96 75 2922020 11 32 6 49 48 49 31 129

2021 6 43 1 49 27 60 4 92

2022E 23 66 3 91 100 98 15 213

Forecast2023 29 66 7 102 128 98 41 2672028 34 77 13 125 158 121 82 361

2033 37 95 15 147 173 150 94 417

2038 41 115 17 173 191 184 106 4812043 45 139 18 202 209 223 118 550

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐0.7% 4.2% ‐12.6% 1.3% ‐0.7% 3.7% ‐10.8% ‐0.7%

2022‐23 29.1% 0.5% 167.6% 12.4% 27.8% 0.8% 173.8% 25.7%

2023‐33 2.5% 3.7% 7.9% 3.7% 3.1% 4.3% 8.6% 4.5%2023‐43 2.2% 3.8% 5.1% 3.5% 2.5% 4.2% 5.4% 3.7%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

138 

Source: Forms 41 and 298‐C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
TABLE

8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

U.S./CANADA

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 158

2015 70 75 36 27 207

2019 89 89 44 32 253

2020 17 33

9

7 67

2021 24 66

4

5 99

2022E 71 88 15 21 195

Forecast2023 92 95 23 31 242

2028 111 111 44 40 3052033 128 132 50 45 3552038 146 159 58 52 4152043 166 191 66 59 482

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.1% 4.3% ‐4.6% ‐0.4% 1.8%

2022‐23 29.5% 8.0% 49.1% 50.5% 23.6%2023‐33 3.3% 3.4% 8.2% 3.8% 3.9%

2023‐43 3.0% 3.6% 5.5% 3.2% 3.5%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

139 

Source: US Customs

& Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;

data also received from Transport Canada.
TABLE

9

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' U.S. FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical2010 122.2 216.4 140.1 875.7 2,988.0 1,106.1

2015 132.1 215.1 149.7 904.1 2,892.6 1,133.5

2019 141.9 221.4 158.2 928.5 2,813.9 1,143.5

2020 141.6 217.2 153.6 911.5 2,648.0 1,077.1

2021 145.2 198.6 153.7 938.0 1,859.6 1,019.6

2022E 149.4 215.4 161.8 942.3 2,347.4 1,096.0

Forecast2023 155.6 221.7 169.6 937.0 2,625.5 1,127.6

2028 158.5 227.3 175.1 949.6 2,895.4 1,194.0

2033 161.2 227.9 177.5 962.2 2,840.1 1,203.2

2038 163.8 228.7 179.6 975.0 2,777.4 1,209.1

2043 166.5 229.7 181.5 988.0 2,725.1 1,212.0

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.7% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% ‐2.0% ‐0.1%2022‐23 4.1% 2.9% 4.8% ‐0.6% 11.8% 2.9%2023‐33 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7%

2023‐43 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

140 

Source: Forms 41 and 298‐C, U.S. Department of Transportation. 1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
TABLE 10

S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS U.

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 710

2015 543 87 630 556 259 815

2019 654 100 754 674 290 963

2020 368 47 415 374 127 502

2021 402 47 449 422 90 5122022E 612 89 700 633 211 845

Forecast2023 649 99 748 675 266 941

2028 703 122 825 741 359 1,1002033 809 144 953 864 415 1,2792038 940 169 1,110 1,017 478 1,4952043 1,106 198 1,304 1,213 547 1,760

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% ‐0.7% 1.5%

2022‐23 6.1% 12.2% 6.9% 6.6% 25.7% 11.4%2023‐33 2.2% 3.8% 2.4% 2.5% 4.6% 3.1%

2023‐43 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.7% 3.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

141 
TABLE 11

MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS U.S.

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

FISCAL YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.5

2015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.7

2019 785 674 85.8 349 290 83.0 1,134 963 85.02020 542 374 69.0 176 127 72.4 718 502 69.8

2021 581 422 72.6 169 90 53.4 751 512 68.22022E 755 633 83.9 276 211 76.6 1,031 845 82.0

Forecast2023 794 675 85.1 340 266 78.1 1,134 941 83.02028 859 741 86.3 437 359 82.1 1,296 1,100 84.9

2033 988 864 87.4 504 415 82.3 1,492 1,279 85.7

2038 1,165 1,017 87.3 581 478 82.3 1,746 1,495 85.6

2043 1,389 1,213 87.3 665 547 82.3 2,054 1,760 85.7

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.2% 2.3% ‐0.1% ‐0.7% 1.5% 1.5%

2022‐23 5.1% 6.6% 23.4% 25.7% 10.0% 11.4%

2023‐33 2.2% 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% 2.8% 3.1%

2023‐43 2.8% 3.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 3.2%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

142 

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.22019 27.9 59.2 13.2 100.22020 10.8 30.3 5.6 46.7

2021 5.7 40.9 0.8 47.4

2022E 22.6 63.4 2.6 88.5

Forecast2023 29.1 63.3 6.9 99.3

2028 34.5 74.3 13.1 121.92033 37.4 91.6 14.7 143.72038 41.0 111.9 16.5 169.42043 44.9 134.3 18.5 197.7

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐0.7% 4.5% ‐12.6% 1.4%

2022‐23 29.1% ‐0.1% 167.6% 12.2%2023‐33 2.5% 3.8% 7.9% 3.8%

2023‐43 2.2% 3.8% 5.1% 3.5%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

143 

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
TABLE 13

MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS U.S.

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

ASMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs % LOAD % LOAD

FISCAL YEAR (BIL) RPMs (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) RPMs (BIL) FACTOR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL) FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.22015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.82019 146 121 82.9 112 94 83.5 91 75 82.6 349 290 83.02020 69 48 69.3 63 48 76.2 44 31 71.8 176 127 72.42021 57 27 47.8 92 59 63.5 20 4 22.4 169 90 53.4

2022E 128 100 78.1 121 96 79.6 27 15 56.3 276 211 76.6

Forecast2023 160 128 80.0 121 97 80.0 59 41 69.0 340 266 78.12028 193 158 81.8 144 119 82.8 101 82 81.6 437 359 82.1

2033 211 173 81.8 179 148 82.8 114 94 82.4 504 415 82.3

2038 233 191 81.8 220 182 82.8 128 106 82.4 581 478 82.3

2043 256 209 81.8 265 220 82.8 143 118 82.4 665 547 82.3

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐0.2% ‐0.7% 3.7% 3.8% ‐7.8% ‐10.8% ‐0.1% ‐0.7%

2022‐23 24.8% 27.8% ‐0.1% 0.5% 123.2% 173.8% 23.4% 25.7%2023‐33 2.8% 3.1% 4.0% 4.4% 6.7% 8.6% 4.0% 4.6%

2023‐43 2.4% 2.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% 5.4% 3.4% 3.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

144 
 TABLE 14 U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE INTERNATIONAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEM FISCAL YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

Historical2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.2

2015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.8

2019 166.0 251.6 177.9 269.9 225.6 180.7

2020 166.7 256.2 178.5 256.5 221.8 177.5

2021 171.7 255.4 178.8 205.8 202.4 177.8

2022E 171.1 260.5 180.3 265.8 218.3 181.6

Forecast2023 182.0 257.9 181.4 261.3 224.7 193.0

2028 185.4 260.4 183.9 265.4 230.0 198.3

2033 188.5 262.8 186.4 269.0 230.5 200.9

2038 191.6 265.3 188.9 272.7 231.3 203.2

2043 194.8 267.8 191.4 276.4 232.4 205.5

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% ‐0.6% ‐0.1% 0.6%

2022‐23 6.3% ‐1.0% 0.6% ‐1.7% 2.9% 6.2%

2023‐33 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

2023‐43 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

145 
TABLE 15

MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS U.S.

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL

DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,296

2015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,292

2019 1,030 4,330 1,582 5,709 2,890 1,278

2020 1,016 4,442 1,577 5,634 2,725 1,209

2021 1,050 4,756 1,434 5,809 1,906 1,141

2022E 1,036 4,438 1,519 5,835 2,388 1,207

Forecast2023 1,040 4,396 1,528 5,970 2,675 1,257

2028 1,054 4,571 1,601 6,276 2,945 1,333

2033 1,068 4,622 1,619 6,373 2,887 1,342

2038 1,082 4,645 1,627 6,392 2,822 1,348

2043 1,097 4,668 1,635 6,399 2,769 1,350

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 0.2% 0.0% ‐0.7% 2.0% ‐2.1% ‐0.6%

2022‐23 0.4% ‐1.0% 0.6% 2.3% 12.1% 4.2%

2023‐33 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7%

2023‐43 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

146 

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
 TABLE 16 U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS PASSENGER YIELDS REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM CURRENT

$ FY 2022

$ CURRENT

$ FY 2022

$ CURRENT

$ FY 2022

$

FISCAL YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 16.70 12.84 16.98 12.69 16.79

2015 14.79 17.97 14.16 17.21 14.59 17.73

2019 14.12 15.97 13.47 15.23 13.92 15.75

2020 13.46 15.00 13.48 15.02 13.46 15.01

2021 11.73 12.66 12.84 13.86 11.93 12.87

2022E 15.58 15.58 15.33 15.33 15.52 15.52

Forecast2023 15.66 14.89 15.63 14.87 15.65 14.89

2028 16.73 14.26 16.56 14.11 16.68 14.21

2033 17.63 13.53 17.80 13.68 17.68 13.57

2038 18.54 12.80 19.12 13.24 18.73 12.93

2043 19.57 12.13 20.57 12.81 19.88 12.32

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.8% ‐0.6% 1.5% ‐0.9% 1.7% ‐0.7%

2022‐23 0.5% ‐4.4% 2.0% ‐3.0% 0.8% ‐4.1%

2023‐33 1.2% ‐1.0% 1.3% ‐0.8% 1.2% ‐0.9%

2023‐43 1.1% ‐1.0% 1.4% ‐0.7% 1.2% ‐0.9%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

147 

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
TABLE 17

MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS U.S.

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

 REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL CURRENT $ FY 2022 $ CURRENT $ FY 2022 $ CURRENT $ FY 2022 $ CURRENT $ FY 2022 $

FISCAL YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 16.85 13.33 17.64 12.50 16.54 12.84 16.98

2015 14.64 17.78 14.38 17.47 13.20 16.04 14.16 17.21

2019 14.04 15.88 14.20 16.06 11.63 13.16 13.47 15.23

2020 13.49 15.04 14.60 16.27 11.75 13.10 13.48 15.02

2021 11.82 12.76 12.59 13.58 22.48 24.25 12.84 13.86

2022E 15.66 15.66 14.60 14.60 17.79 17.79 15.33 15.33

Forecast2023 16.39 15.58 15.22 14.48 14.24 13.54 15.63 14.87

2028 17.84 15.20 16.33 13.91 14.44 12.30 16.56 14.11

2033 19.30 14.82 17.43 13.39 15.65 12.02 17.80 13.68

2038 20.88 14.46 18.53 12.83 16.97 11.75 19.12 13.24

2043 22.64 14.10 19.74 12.29 18.44 11.48 20.57 12.81

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.7% ‐0.6% 0.8% ‐1.6% 3.0% 0.6% 1.5% ‐0.9%

2022‐23 4.6% ‐0.5% 4.3% ‐0.8% ‐20.0% ‐23.9% 2.0% ‐3.0%

2023‐33 1.6% ‐0.5% 1.4% ‐0.8% 1.0% ‐1.2% 1.3% ‐0.8%2023‐43 1.6% ‐0.5% 1.3% ‐0.8% 1.3% ‐0.8% 1.4% ‐0.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

148 
 TABLE 18 U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS JET FUEL PRICES DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM CURRENT

$ FY 2021

$ CURRENT

$ FY 2021

$ CURRENT

$ FY 2021

$

FISCAL YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical2010 219.16 289.99 220.12 291.27 219.49 290.432015 207.29 251.87 211.77 257.31 208.96 253.902019 205.67 232.60 207.82 235.03 206.42 233.452020 166.65 185.78 167.21 186.40 166.84 185.992021 177.23 191.26 171.82 185.42 175.49 189.372022E 309.28 309.28 315.20 315.20 311.24 311.24Forecast2023 283.31 269.47 288.73 274.63 285.11 271.182028 291.70 248.52 297.29 253.28 293.56 250.102033 320.75 246.15 326.89 250.87 322.79 247.722038 340.37 235.05 346.89 239.55 342.53 236.552043 366.59 227.23 373.61 231.58 368.92 228.68Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.9% 0.5% 3.0% 0.7% 3.0% 0.6%

2022‐23 ‐8.4% ‐12.9% ‐8.4% ‐12.9% ‐8.4% ‐12.9%

2023‐33 1.2% ‐0.9% 1.2% ‐0.9% 1.2% ‐0.9%

2023‐43 1.3% ‐0.8% 1.3% ‐0.8% 1.3% ‐0.8%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

149 

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL‐CARGO CARRIER RTMS

(Millions)

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,306 15,971 27,276 1,495 6,246 7,742 12,801 22,217 35,018

2015 11,636 16,359 27,995 1,455 6,277 7,733 13,091 22,636 35,727

2019 14,737 19,668 34,405 1,468 6,984 8,452 16,205 26,652 42,856

2020 16,663 21,964 38,627 1,124 4,130 5,255 17,787 26,094 43,882

2021 18,555 26,580 45,135 1,318 4,836 6,154 19,873 31,416 51,289

2022E 18,376 26,090 44,466 1,442 5,625 7,067 19,818 31,715 51,533

Forecast2023 18,345 25,253 43,598 1,547 6,407 7,953 19,892 31,660 51,551

2028 20,404 29,147 49,550 1,648 8,700 10,348 22,052 37,846 59,8982033 22,582 35,036 57,619 1,746 9,731 11,476 24,328 44,767 69,0952038 25,285 42,089 67,374 1,867 10,844 12,711 27,152 52,933 80,085

2043 28,223 50,233 78,456 1,986 11,965 13,951 30,210 62,198 92,407

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% ‐0.3% ‐0.9% ‐0.8% 3.7% 3.0% 3.3%

2022‐23 ‐0.2% ‐3.2% ‐2.0% 7.3% 13.9% 12.5% 0.4% ‐0.2% 0.0%

2023‐33 2.1% 3.3% 2.8% 1.2% 4.3% 3.7% 2.0% 3.5% 3.0%

2023‐43 2.2% 3.5% 3.0% 1.3% 3.2% 2.8% 2.1% 3.4% 3.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new

reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

150 
TABLE 20

COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS U.S.

INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

OTHER

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical2010 6,786 1,990 7,897 5,545 22,217

2015 6,627 1,639 9,018 5,352 22,636

2019 7,426 1,661 10,429 7,135 26,652

2020 6,669 1,296 10,198 7,931 26,094

2021 7,603 1,608 11,555 10,650 31,4162022E 8,763 1,666 10,905 10,382 31,715

Forecast2023 8,914 1,699 11,346 9,700 31,660

2028 9,981 1,863 14,154 11,848 37,8462033 11,281 2,031 16,702 14,753 44,7672038 12,804 2,237 19,623 18,269 52,9332043 14,528 2,413 22,832 22,425 62,198

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 2.2% ‐1.5% 2.7% 5.4% 3.0%

2022‐23 1.7% 2.0% 4.0% ‐6.6% ‐0.2%

2023‐33 2.4% 1.8% 3.9% 4.3% 3.5%

2023‐43 2.5% 1.8% 3.6% 4.3% 3.4%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

151 
TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

Passenger LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

LARGE

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS REGIONAL JETS TOTAL JETS

Historical2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,9432019 3,775 0 0 3,775 553 0 0 553 4,328 60 4,388

2020 2,860 0 0 2,860 298 0 0 298 3,158 23 3,181

2021 2,828 0 0 2,828 281 0 0 281 3,109 23 3,132

2022 3,429 0 0 3,429 426 0 0 426 3,855 60 3,915

Forecast2023 3,745 0 0 3,745 475 0 0 475 4,220 48 4,268

2028 3,568 0 0 3,568 549 0 0 549 4,117 0 4,117

2033 3,827 0 0 3,827 603 0 0 603 4,430 0 4,430

2038 4,367 0 0 4,367 702 0 0 702 5,069 0 5,069

2043 5,099 0 0 5,099 826 0 0 826 5,925 0 5,925

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 0.8% N.A. N.A. 0.8% ‐0.8% N.A. N.A. ‐1.7% 0.5% ‐1.4% 0.4%

2022‐23 9.2% N.A. N.A. 9.2% 11.5% N.A. N.A. 11.5% 9.5% N.A. 9.0%

2023‐33 0.2% N.A. N.A. 0.2% 2.4% N.A. N.A. 2.4% 0.5% N.A. 0.4%

2023‐43 1.6% N.A. N.A. 1.6% 2.8% N.A. N.A. 2.8% 1.7% N.A. 1.7%Note: N.A. ‐ Not Applicable

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

152 
,. 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

153 

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE

4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE

4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 789

2019 216 10 2 228 419 120 112 651 879

2020 200 10

0 210 414 115 109 638 848

2021 213

8

0 221 434 111 110 655 876

2022 219

7

0 226 469 118 122 709 935

Forecast2023 239

7

0 246 503 110 125 738 984

2028 332 2 0 334 611 110 130 851 1,1852033 449

0

0 449 742 110 130 982 1,431

2038 508

0

0 508 996 41 108 1,145 1,653

2043 642

0

0 642 1,233

7 92 1,332 1,974

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 3.0% ‐20.1% N.A. ‐2.0% 4.9% ‐4.3% 1.9% 2.0% 0.8%2022‐23 9.1% 0.0% N.A. 8.8% 7.2% ‐6.8% 2.5% 4.1% 5.2%2023‐33 6.5% N.A. N.A. 6.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.9% 3.8%

2023‐43 5.1% N.A. N.A. 4.9% 4.6% ‐12.9% ‐1.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Note: N.A. ‐ Not Applicable
TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

GENERAL AIR GENERAL

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUELCONSUMED

Historical2010 12,036 6,315 18,351 1,435 19,786 2 221 223 20,009

2015 12,834 6,541 19,374 1,383 20,757 2 196 198 20,955

2019 14,648 7,043 21,691 1,510 23,202 2 200 202 23,404

2020 10,538 4,732 15,270 1,342 16,612 2 204 206 16,818

2021 11,578 4,823 16,402 1,909 18,311 2 229 231 18,542

2022E 14,008 6,077 20,086 1,936 22,022 2 224 226 22,248

Forecast2023 14,794 6,873 21,668 1,964 23,632 2 222 224 23,856

2028 15,239 8,262 23,502 2,167 25,669 2 211 213 25,882

2033 16,679 8,998 25,677 2,392 28,070 2 206 208 28,278

2038 18,710 9,791 28,501 2,608 31,109 2 201 203 31,312

2043 21,218 10,587 31,804 2,810 34,614 2 198 200 34,815

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.3% ‐0.3% 0.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%

2022‐23 5.6% 13.1% 7.9% 1.4% 7.3% 0.0% ‐1.1% ‐1.1% 7.2%

2023‐33 1.2% 2.7% 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% ‐0.7% ‐0.7% 1.7%2023‐43 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% ‐0.6% ‐0.6% 1.9%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

154 
TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

DOMESTIC INT'L TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL CURRENT $ 2022 $

FISCAL YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical2010 55.7 53.2 55.7 459 503 460 16.23 21.48

2015 59.5 64.9 59.7 469 695 473 11.41 13.86

2019 64.1 72.5 64.3 491 670 495 12.15 13.74

2020 65.0 71.9 65.1 494 675 497 11.65 12.99

2021 66.5 72.9 66.6 509 662 512 10.20 11.01

2022E 66.9 72.5 67.0 490 640 492 13.53 13.53

Forecast2023 70.2 72.8 70.3 495 648 498 13.60 12.93

2028 71.5 74.3 71.6 502 656 505 14.52 12.37

2033 72.7 75.8 72.8 509 665 511 15.29 11.74

2038 73.9 77.3 74.0 515 674 518 16.09 11.11

2043 75.1 78.8 75.2 522 683 525 16.98 10.52

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.5% 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 2.0% 0.6% ‐1.5% ‐3.8%

2022‐23 4.9% 0.4% 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% ‐4.4%

2023‐33 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% ‐1.0%

2023‐43 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% ‐1.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

155 
TABLE 25

REGIONAL CARRIERS U.S.

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 158 3 161 72,709 1,347 74,055

2015 149 3 152 69,619 2,116 71,735

2019 152 4 156 74,791 2,376 77,168

2020 92 2 94 45,538 1,229 46,767

2021 105 2 107 53,650 1,221 54,871

2022E 126 2 128 61,725 1,335 63,060

Forecast2023 151 3 154 74,949 1,621 76,570

2028 164 3 167 82,307 1,780 84,088

2033 189 3 192 95,902 2,074 97,977

2038 219 4 223 112,940 2,443 115,383

2043 258 4 262 134,656 2,913 137,568

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐1.9% ‐2.1% ‐1.9% ‐1.4% ‐0.1% ‐1.3%

2022‐23 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 21.4% 21.4% 21.4%

2023‐33 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

2023‐43 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

156 
TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR

Historical2010 95,508 72,709 76.1 1,857 1,347 72.5 97,365 74,055 76.1

2015 86,778 69,619 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 89,597 71,735 80.1

2019 93,720 74,791 79.8 3,116 2,376 76.3 96,836 77,168 79.7

2020 69,317 45,538 65.7 1,812 1,229 67.9 71,129 46,767 65.8

2021 75,837 53,650 70.7 1,836 1,221 66.5 77,673 54,871 70.6

2022E 77,700 61,725 79.4 1,833 1,335 72.8 79,533 63,060 79.3

Forecast2023 94,741 74,949 79.1 2,235 1,621 72.5 96,975 76,570 79.0

2028 102,567 82,307 80.2 2,419 1,780 73.6 104,986 84,088 80.1

2033 117,984 95,902 81.3 2,783 2,074 74.5 120,767 97,977 81.1

2038 139,104 112,940 81.2 3,281 2,443 74.5 142,385 115,383 81.02043 165,792 134,656 81.2 3,911 2,913 74.5 169,703 137,568 81.1

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐1.7% ‐1.4% ‐0.1% ‐0.1% ‐1.7% ‐1.3%

2022‐23 21.9% 21.4% 21.9% 21.4% 21.9% 21.4%2023‐33 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.5%

2023‐43 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

157 
TABLE 27

REGIONAL CARRIERS U.S.

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30

JANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,1442019 374 72 19 11 0 11 39 1,846 1,885 515 1,846 2,3612020 276 74 20 11 0 11 40 1,434 1,474 421 1,434 1,8552021 268 69 16 10 0 10 38 1,406 1,444 401 1,406 1,8072022 247 59 18 3 3 6 49 1,623 1,672 376 1,626 2,002

Forecast2023 211 54 13 0 1 1 56 1,635 1,691 334 1,636 1,9702028 183 47 11 0 0 0 58 1,499 1,557 299 1,499 1,7982033 158 41 9 0 0 0 64 1,566 1,630 272 1,566 1,838

2038 135 35 8 0 0 0 70 1,849 1,919 248 1,849 2,097

2043 113 29 7 0 0 0 80 2,158 2,238 229 2,158 2,387

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐4.7% ‐3.6% ‐11.9% ‐27.6% ‐17.0% ‐24.4% ‐5.7% ‐0.5% ‐0.7% ‐6.6% ‐0.6% ‐2.2%

2022‐23 ‐14.6% ‐8.5% ‐27.8% N.A. ‐66.7% ‐83.3% 14.3% 0.7% 1.1% ‐11.2% 0.6% ‐1.6%

2023‐33 ‐2.9% ‐2.7% ‐3.6% N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.3% ‐0.4% ‐0.4% ‐2.0% ‐0.4% ‐0.7%

2023‐43 ‐3.1% ‐3.1% ‐3.0% N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% ‐1.9% 1.4% 1.0%

Note: N.A. ‐ Not Applicable

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

158 
TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

SINGLE MULTI‐ TURBO TURBO

AS OF DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

MENTAL* LIGHT SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL

* AIRCRAFT** OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,372

2019 128,926 12,470 141,396 10,242 14,888 25,130 3,089 7,109 10,198 27,449 2,675 4,133 210,981 144,485 32,239

2020 124,059 11,947 136,006 10,317 15,316 25,633 2,930 6,816 9,746 26,367 2,570 3,818 204,140 138,936 32,4492021 126,735 11,885 138,620 10,391 15,270 25,661 3,012 7,020 10,032 27,960 2,650 4,271 209,194 141,632 32,681

2022E 125,655 11,810 137,465 10,415 15,730 26,145 3,020 7,155 10,175 28,245 2,760 4,350 209,140 140,485 33,300

Forecast2023 124,545 11,745 136,290 10,430 16,215 26,645 3,030 7,290 10,320 28,580 2,870 4,390 209,095 139,320 33,935

2028 119,185 11,485 130,670 10,560 18,930 29,490 3,090 8,030 11,120 30,190 3,450 4,590 209,510 133,760 37,520

2033 114,360 11,315 125,675 10,885 21,775 32,660 3,175 8,830 12,005 31,410 4,050 4,655 210,455 128,850 41,490

2038 110,405 11,205 121,610 11,410 24,655 36,065 3,275 9,655 12,930 32,600 4,610 4,695 212,510 124,885 45,720

2043 107,800 11,175 118,975 12,170 27,570 39,740 3,375 10,495 13,870 33,835 5,245 4,730 216,395 122,350 50,235

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐0.9% ‐2.4% ‐1.0% 0.9% 2.7% 1.9% ‐1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% ‐6.9% ‐2.2% ‐0.5% ‐1.0% 1.6%

2022‐23 ‐0.9% ‐0.6% ‐0.9% 0.1% 3.1% 1.9% 0.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% ‐0.8% 1.9%

2023‐33 ‐0.8% ‐0.4% ‐0.8% 0.4% 3.0% 2.1% 0.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% ‐0.8% 2.0%

2023‐43 ‐0.7% ‐0.2% ‐0.7% 0.8% 2.7% 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 3.1% 0.4% 0.2% ‐0.6% 2.0%

Source: * 2001‐2010, 2012‐2021, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

**Experimental Light‐sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.

Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

159 
 

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

SINGLE MULTI‐ TURBO TURBO

AS OF DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL

EXPERI‐ LIGHT SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TURBINE

MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER HOURS PISTONS S

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,871

2019 12,700 1,731 14,431 2,619 3,926 6,546 628 2,369 2,997 1,269 189 135 25,566 15,059 8,914

2020 11,603 1,336 12,939 2,344 3,336 5,681 537 1,871 2,408 1,176 202 86 22,492 13,477 7,552

2021 12,808 1,494 14,302 2,720 4,868 7,587 578 2,178 2,756 1,394 245 156 26,441 14,880 9,765

2022E 12,505 1,532 14,036 2,793 4,968 7,760 592 2,242 2,833 1,304 228 137 26,299 14,628 10,002

Forecast2023 12,240 1,549 13,789 2,847 5,087 7,934 605 2,307 2,912 1,349 240 142 26,366 14,394 10,241

2028 11,336 1,544 12,880 2,967 5,965 8,933 660 2,623 3,284 1,511 300 155 27,062 13,540 11,5562033 10,910 1,549 12,458 3,063 6,911 9,974 708 2,922 3,630 1,611 362 159 28,195 13,166 12,8962038 10,553 1,564 12,118 3,212 7,845 11,057 749 3,220 3,968 1,693 421 161 29,419 12,867 14,277

2043 10,306 1,597 11,903 3,427 8,769 12,195 786 3,526 4,312 1,777 487 163 30,838 12,690 15,721

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 0.2% ‐1.4% 0.0% 1.5% 3.3% 2.6% ‐2.4% ‐1.3% ‐1.5% 0.5% ‐2.6% ‐2.3% 0.5% ‐0.1% 1.6%

2022‐23 ‐2.1% 1.1% ‐1.8% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.4% 5.6% 3.4% 0.3% ‐1.6% 2.4%

2023‐33 ‐1.1% 0.0% ‐1.0% 0.7% 3.1% 2.3% 1.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 4.2% 1.1% 0.7% ‐0.9% 2.3%

2023‐43 ‐0.9% 0.2% ‐0.7% 0.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.8% ‐0.6% 2.2%

Source: * 2001‐2010, 2012‐2021, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

**Experimental Light‐sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category,starting in 2012.

Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

160 
TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

ROTOR‐

RECREA‐ SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER

AS OF DEC. 31 TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY

TOTAL LESS

STUDENT

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT

RATED

PILOTS1

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,001

2015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,329

2019 127 6,467 161,105 100,863 164,947 14,248 19,143 466,900 314,168

2020 105 6,643 160,860 103,879 164,193 13,629 19,753 469,062 316,651

2021 85 6,801 161,459 104,610 163,934 13,191 20,328 470,408 317,169

2022 79 6,957 164,090 104,498 166,738 13,180 20,804 476,346 321,217

Forecast2023 75 7,150 166,000 104,700 169,900 13,100 21,100 482,025 324,700

2028 70 8,385 168,700 105,050 178,800 13,100 22,050 496,155 332,800

2033 55 9,575 166,750 104,950 183,400 13,950 22,550 501,230 342,200

2038 40 10,685 163,350 104,700 189,200 14,950 22,750 505,675 351,7002043 15 11,705 159,650 104,450 196,100 15,900 22,850 510,670 361,250

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 ‐7.9% 5.4% ‐1.7% ‐1.4% 1.3% ‐1.3% ‐0.2% ‐0.5% 0.1%

2022‐23 ‐5.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% ‐0.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%

2023‐33 ‐3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5%

2023‐43 ‐7.7% 2.5% ‐0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.*

Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot

numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. Since there is no sufficient data yet to forecastthe student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.

1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.

Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

161 
 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

EXPERI‐

SINGLE MULTI‐ TURBO TURBO MENTAL* LIGHT

CALENDAR YEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE * / OTHER SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,578

2019 131 45 213 1,170 8 127 16 1 200 1,510 1,711

2020 146 35 201 1,036 8 105 14 1 204 1,342 1,546

2021 155 47 230 1,557 8 123 18 1 229 1,909 2,138

2022E 151 48 235 1,576 8 125 16 1 224 1,936 2,160

Forecast2023 147 48 238 1,598 8 128 17 1 222 1,964 2,186

2028 135 47 244 1,781 9 142 19 2 211 2,167 2,379

2033 129 46 247 1,992 10 154 20 2 206 2,392 2,599

2038 122 46 253 2,192 10 163 20 2 201 2,608 2,809

2043 118 46 264 2,375 11 171 21 3 198 2,810 3,008

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.0% ‐0.9% 1.9% 2.9% ‐2.3% 0.0% ‐2.4% ‐0.8% 0.1% 2.5% 2.2%

2022‐23 ‐2.3% 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 3.0% 5.6% ‐1.1% 1.4% 1.2%

2023‐33 ‐1.3% ‐0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.9% 1.7% 3.6% ‐0.7% 2.0% 1.7%

2023‐43 ‐1.1% ‐0.3% 0.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 3.1% ‐0.6% 1.8% 1.6%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light‐sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category,starting in 2012.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

162 
TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

AIR AIR TAXI/

FISCAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 244

2015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,579 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,724 264 252

2019 16,192 7,234 14,245 13,109 27,354 1,349 1,134 2,483 53,264 264 256

2020 11,737 5,472 12,608 12,333 24,941 1,192 1,020 2,212 44,362 264 256

2021 12,214 5,885 13,775 13,479 27,254 1,290 1,077 2,366 47,720 264 258

2022 15,150 6,522 14,635 14,029 28,664 1,288 986 2,254 52,591 264 260

Forecast2023 16,626 6,040 15,078 14,802 29,880 1,269 986 2,255 54,800 264 260

2028 20,164 6,073 16,068 15,768 31,835 1,269 986 2,255 60,327 264 260

2033 22,248 6,401 16,274 16,043 32,318 1,269 986 2,255 63,222 264 260

2038 24,408 6,742 16,486 16,328 32,814 1,269 986 2,255 66,219 264 260

2043 26,748 7,105 16,704 16,622 33,326 1,269 986 2,255 69,435 264 260

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.5% ‐3.0% ‐0.1% 1.5% 0.6% ‐0.1% ‐2.3% ‐1.2% 0.2%

2022‐23 9.7% ‐7.4% 3.0% 5.5% 4.2% ‐1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2%2023‐33 3.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

2023‐43 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

163 
TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY OVERFLIGHT TOTAL

Historical2010 12,575 8,512 10,761 2,050 4,840 38,738

2015 13,610 6,999 10,350 1,961 4,116 37,036

2019 16,014 6,600 10,960 1,946 3,706 39,227

2020 11,617 5,153 9,691 1,763 3,050 31,274

2021 12,045 5,462 10,742 1,894 3,393 33,536

2022 14,967 5,925 11,376 1,825 3,601 37,694

Forecast2023 16,423 5,271 11,682 1,827 3,719 38,922

2028 19,920 4,937 12,299 1,827 4,117 43,101

2033 21,987 5,221 12,441 1,827 4,380 45,856

2038 24,130 5,514 12,586 1,827 4,653 48,710

2043 26,452 5,827 12,734 1,827 4,946 51,786

Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 1.5% ‐3.0% 0.5% ‐1.0% ‐2.4% ‐0.2%

2022‐23 9.7% ‐11.0% 2.7% 0.1% 3.3% 3.3%

2023‐33 3.0% ‐0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7%

2023‐43 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

164 
TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

GENERAL

FISCAL YEAR COMMERCIAL AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical2010 30,965 6,550 2,982 40,4982015 33,116 7,007 1,795 41,9182019 35,783 6,309 1,645 43,7372020 25,608 5,096 1,404 32,1082021 26,449 6,124 1,525 34,0982022 32,891 7,034 1,511 41,437Forecast2023 35,961 7,198 1,511 44,6702028 41,942 7,523 1,511 50,9762033 46,540 7,725 1,511 55,7762038 51,294 7,938 1,511 60,7422043 56,428 8,161 1,511 66,100Avg Annual Growth2010‐22 0.5% 0.6% ‐5.5% 0.2%

2022‐23 9.3% 2.3% 0.0% 7.8%

2023‐33 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 2.2%2023‐43 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 2.0%

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2023–2043 

165 

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity