Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2020–2040) ................................................................................................ 1

Review of 2019 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................. 5

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... 7

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 9

Economic Environment..........................................................................................................10

U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................12

Domestic Market................................................................................................................12

International Market ...........................................................................................................18

Cargo.................................................................................................................................22

General Aviation....................................................................................................................24

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................30

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................32

Commercial Space ................................................................................................................34

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA....................................................................35

FAA’s Operations Forecast................................................................................................37

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy .................................................................39

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................41

Questionnaire of Recreational/Model Registrations............................................................41

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft and Forecast...........................................................45

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast....................................................49

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................56

Larger UAS........................................................................................................................59

Urban Air Mobility ..............................................................................................................61

Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................64

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................68

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................68

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................73

Enplanements....................................................................................................................73

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................74

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................74

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................75

Yield ..................................................................................................................................76

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................81

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................83
1 

Forecast Highlights (2020–2040)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility 

that was associated with these cycles was 

thought by many to be a structural feature of 

an industry that was capital intensive but 

cash poor. However, the great recession of 

2007-09 marked a fundamental change in 

the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. 

Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S. 

airlines revamped their business models to 

minimize losses by lowering operating costs, 

eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated 

new services that customers were willing to 

purchase and started charging separately for 

services that were historically bundled in the 

price of a ticket. The industry experienced 

an unprecedented period of consolidation 

with three major mergers in five years. The

results of these efforts have been impressive: 2019 marks the eleventh consecutive 

year of profitability for the U.S. airline industry. Looking forward, there is confidence that 

U.S. airlines have finally transformed from a 

capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to 

an industry that generates solid returns on 

capital and sustained profits.

Fundamentally, over the medium and long 

term, aviation demand is driven by economic 

activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow 

over the long run. The 2020 FAA forecast 

calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger 

growth over the next 20 years to average 2.0

percent per year. The uptick in passenger 

growth since 2014 will continue into 2020

driven by positive economic conditions in the 

U.S. Oil prices averaged $60 per barrel in 

2019 were forecasted to fall to $53 in 2020, 

and our forecast assumes they will increase

beginning in 2022 to reach $104 by the end 

of the forecast period.

Global economic conditions weakened in 

2019 although the experience was considerably different for the U.S. as compared to the 

rest of the world. GDP growth in the U.S. 

slowed from the strong rate in 2018 but remained above its estimated long-term trend, 

while in Europe, Germany and Italy flirted 

with recession and Asia saw high-growth 

China and India slow markedly. Political instability and trade wars dampened activity 

but by the end of the year, those headwinds 

appeared to be lessening. In their place, 

however, the January 2020 coronavirus 

(COVID-19) outbreak in China gained the 

world's attention and in February began appearing outside Asia. As of the preparation 

of this forecast, the virus and its economic 

impacts were just emergent, and the range 

of possible outcomes too wide to include

meaningfully in the forecast.

Global economic growth accelerates in 2021 

after slowing in 2019-20. Trade disputes 

should be mending, the worst of Brexit uncertainty should be past, Japan's tax-hike 

shock should be fading, and oil prices, and 

inflation generally, should be subdued. Over 

the early years of the 2020's, economies are 

expected to return to their long-run trend 

rates of growth.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.5 percent a year between 2020 and 2040. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.3 percent a year while International RPMs are 
2 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.0 

percent a year. System capacity as measured by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is 

growing, especially in the regional jet market, 

where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2030, 

replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. economy saw solid growth 

in 2019, economic activity around the world 

slowed, and labor costs rose, resulting in 

profits for U.S. airlines subsiding further from 

2016’s record levels. Nevertheless, the FAA 

expects U.S. carrier profitability to remain 

steady as solid demand fed by a stable economy offsets rising labor costs. Over the long 

term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing 

demand for air travel and airfares growing 

more slowly than overall inflation, reflecting 

growing U.S. and global economies.

The long-term outlook for general aviation is 

relatively stable, as growth at the high-end 

offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The active 

general aviation fleet is forecast to decline 

slightly by 0.9 percent between 2020 and 

2040 (rounding up to an average of 0 percent 

change annually). While steady growth in 

both GDP and corporate profits results in 

continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft 

fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed 

wing piston aircraft continues to shrink over 

the forecast. Against the marginally declining fleet, the number of general aviation 

hours flown is projected to increase by 16 

percent (an average of 0.7 percent per year) 

during the same period, as growth in turbine, 

rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than 

offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and 

business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased 

activity growth that has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at 

FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow

0.9 percent a year over the forecast period 

with commercial activity growing at approximately four times the rate of non-commercial

(general aviation and military) activity. The 

growth in U.S. airline and business aviation 

activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases 

than small and non-hub airports, largely due 

to the commercial nature of their operations.
3 

Review of 2019

Solid economic activity in the U.S. more than 

compensated for broad slowdowns throughout the rest of the world, making 2019 yet another good year for U.S. commercial aviation. Airlines posted their eleventh consecutive year of profits in spite of lower revenue 

compared to a year earlier as expenses fell 

further. The U.S. airline industry contained 

expenses by continuing to shift its focus from 

gaining market share to seeking returns on 

invested capital as well as benefitting from 

lower fuel prices. U.S. airlines are continually updating their successful strategies for 

capturing additional revenue streams such 

as charging fees for services that used to be 

included in airfare (e.g. meal service), charging for services that were not previously 

available (e.g. premium boarding and fare 

lock fees), as well as for maximizing fare revenue with more sophisticated revenue management systems. At the same time, the 

U.S. airline industry has become nimbler in 

adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or 

minimize losses, helping to raise yields for 

the first time in four years. These efforts

combined with relatively low fuel prices secured industry profitability in 2019 even as 

new labor contracts lifted labor costs higher.

Demand for air travel in 2019 slowed slightly 

after surging in 2018 as economic growth in 

the U.S. moderated. In 2019, system traffic 

as measured by revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) increased 4.3 percent while system 

 

enplanements grew 4.1 percent. Domestic 

RPMs were up 4.5 percent while enplanements were up by 4.2 percent. International 

RPMs increased 3.9 percent and enplanements grew by 3.8 percent. The systemwide load factor was 84.5 percent, up seven

tenths of a percent from the 2018 level. 

System nominal yields increased again in

2019. In domestic markets, expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and Allegiant, as well as by mainline carriers such as 

United, was partially offset by the MAX 

grounding, giving carriers some pricing

power in the solid demand environment. International yield declined 0.8 percent as both 

the Atlantic and Pacific regions declined but

the Latin region posted a small gain.

Despite rising labor costs and higher capacity, U.S. airlines remained solidly profitable in 

FY 2019. Data for FY 2019 show that the 

reporting passenger carriers had a combined 

operating profit of $22.6 billion (compared to 

a $21.0 billion operating profit for FY 2018). 

The network carriers1 reported combined operating profits of $9.9 billion while the low 

cost carriers2 reported combined operating 

profits of $4.6 billion as all carriers posted

profits.

The general aviation industry recorded a

modest increase of 1.4 percent in deliveries 

of U.S. manufactured aircraft in 2019, with 

pistons up by 6.5 percent and turbines, due 

1 Network carriers are: Alaska Airlines, American 

Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Air Lines.

2 Low cost carriers are: Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit 

Air Lines, Sun Country Airlines.
4 

to a decline in turboprop segment, down by 

3.2 percent. As the higher priced turbojet deliveries improved by 6.3 percent, U.S. billings

increased by 20.5 percent to a record $14.0

billion. General aviation activity at FAA and 

contract tower airports had a 3.3 percent increase in 2019 as local activity rose 6.1 percent and itinerant operations went up by 0.8 

percent. In local GA activity, this was the 

highest increase recorded in more than 20 

years.

Total operations in 2019 at the 520 FAA and 

contract towers were up 2.9 percent compared to 2018. This marks the fifth consecutive years of positive growth starting 2015. 

Last time there were at least four consecutive 

years of growth was FY 1997-2000. Air carrier activity increased by 3.2 percent, while 

air taxi operations increased by 1.5 percent. 

General aviation rose 3.3 percent and military activity decreased 1.9 percent. Activity 

at large and medium hubs rose by1.8 percent and 1.9 percent, while small hub airport 

activity was up 1.6 percent in 2019 compared 

to the prior year.
5 

Glossary of Acronyms 

Acronym Term .

ANG FAA Office of NextGen

ARP FAA Office of Airports

ASMs Available Seat Miles

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CAPS COA Application Processing System

CBP Customs and Border Patrol

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

COAs Certification of Authorizations

CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CY Calendar Year

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD Department of Defense

DoE Department of Energy

DoI Department of Interior

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GC Grand Challenge

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

ISS International Space Station

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability

LCC Low Cost Carriers

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

lUAS Large Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act

NOTAM Notices to Airmen

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

PDARS Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles
6 

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

TSA Transportation Security Administration

UAM Urban Air Mobility

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

UASFM UAS facility maps

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
7

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

• Fleet Akira Kondo (202) 267-3336

General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

• Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

• Data Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

Commercial Space Thomas Marotta (202) 267-0427

LaVada Strickland (202) 267-3855

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

W. Gavin Ekins (202) 267-4735

Programming Analysis Jared Teeter (202) 267-2813

APO Websites

• Forecasts and 

Statistical publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov
8 
9 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2020-2040
10

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Markit projects that 

world economic growth will hold steady at 

about its 2019 rate of 2.6 percent after falling 

markedly from 3.2 percent in 2018. Economies will require several years to return to 

their long-run trend growth rates and in the 

meantime growth is projected at 2.5 percent 

in 2020 and 2.7 percent in 2021. Strong consumer spending continues to drive the U.S. 

economy and is expected to be sustained

even as the effects of the recent fiscal stimulus wear off. European growth suffered in 

2019 as Germany and Italy weakened considerably and political uncertainty impacted 

confidence, but moderate growth in France, 

reduced uncertainty about Brexit, and improved financial conditions appear to be restraining the slowdown. Japan’s economic 

growth is projected to slow sharply due to an 

increase in the consumption tax at the end of

2019 but fiscal stimulus and rising employment should mitigate the effects over the 

coming years. In emerging markets, China’s 

growth rate continues to gradually decelerate

through 6 percent, though braced by government efforts, while other countries such as 

Brazil and Russia feel the drag from China 

and headwinds of falling commodity prices 

and modest demand from advanced economies. India is expected to post growth rates 

of about 5 percent in the near-term as high 

debt levels and a need for structural reforms 

restrains activity. 

IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow 

at 2.7 percent a year between 2020 and 

2040. Emerging markets, at 4.0 percent a 

year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Africa and Middle East, 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.6 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

6.2

4.8

2.3

1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

2.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Annual Percent Change

China and India Led World Economic Growth in 2019

China India U.S. Eurozone Russia Brazil Japan World

Source: IHS Markit
11

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be 

very slow at 0.9 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population.

The average crude oil price in 2019 was 

down 6 percent from the year before to about 

$60 per barrel, partially offsetting the increases seen in 2017 and 2018. IHS Markit

is projecting continued moderation in prices 

in 2020 and 2021 due to slowing global demand combined with modest non-OPEC 

supply growth. The price of oil is projected 

to increase over the long run due to growing 

global demand and higher costs of extraction. IHS Markit forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of crude to cross the $100 per 

barrel mark just before the end of the forecast in 2040.

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

M.E. & N. Africa

Asia ex. China & Japan

China

Asia and Middle East/N. Africa Lead Global Economic Growth

Source: IHS Markit, Dec 2019 World Forecast

(annual GDP percent growth 2020-2040)

0.9

1.2

1.9

2.4

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.3
12

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Markit

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers3 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

The commercial air carrier industry in 2020

will respond to four trends already underway: 

(1) selective capacity expansion; (2) steady 

growth of seats per aircraft, whether through 

up-gauging or reconfiguring existing aircraft; 

(3) increasing competitive pressure due to ultra-low-cost carrier expansion; and (4) in-

 

creasing price discrimination4 through ancillary revenues and revenue management 

systems. 

Following the 2007-09 recession, the U.S. 

airline industry underwent considerable restructuring that has resulted in an unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Since 2009, U.S. 

domestic ASMs have increased at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year while RPMs 

have grown 3.2 percent per year. Although 

those average rates of growth since the recession are modest, they conceal the fact 

3 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or fewer seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.

4 Simply defined as the business strategy of selling largely similar products to different customers at different prices.
13

that growth has been picking up over the period (4.4 percent and 4.6 percent a year since 

2014, respectively). ASM growth has risen 

due to a variety of factors including upgauging, and the expansion of ultra-low-cost carriers and the competitive response by major 

carriers, driven in large part by low fuel 

prices. Looking ahead to the near-term, the 

acceleration of growth in ASM is likely to continue as some carriers have indicated plans 

to open new routes and potential new entrants have announced plans to begin operations. As new service begins, competitors 

may respond defensively by adding their own 

new routes, thus further boosting ASM 

growth.

The period of domestic capacity restraint 

since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional 

counterparts. In 2019, the mainline carrier 

group provided 19.2 percent more capacity 

than in 2007 while carrying 22.8 percent 

more passengers. Capacity flown by the regional group has risen 5.1 percent over the 

same 12-year period (with passengers carried up 2.1 percent).

The regional market has continued to lose 

ground as the regionals compete for even 

fewer contracts with the remaining dominant 

carriers; this has meant paltry growth in enplanements and yields.

654 690 744 808 880 949 1,023

159 168

181

197

214

231

249

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

 1,400

2019E 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional
14

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing some 

pilot shortages. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the 

pilot shortage while their capital costs have 

increased in the short-term as they continue 

to replace their 50 seat regional jets with 

more fuel-efficient 70 seat jets. The move to 

the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the 

future, however, since their unit costs are 

lower.

Growing seats per aircraft has been a 

longstanding trend for regionals that saw this 

measure rise by more than 55 percent over 

the decade from 1997 to 2007. The trend 

has slowed more recently, however, as regional seats per aircraft rose 17 percent over 

the ten years ending in 2019. 

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although the trend 

has been accelerating – the reverse of regionals' behavior. From 1997-2007, mainline 

seats per aircraft expanded just one-half of 

one percent. Since 2009, this measure has 

grown 10 percent.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

14.1 14.2

15.1

16.5

17.6

18.8

20.0

11.6 11.6

12.5

13.6

14.5

15.4

16.4

 -

 5.00

 10.00

 15.00

 20.00

 25.00

2019E 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
15

checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as 

boarding priority and internet access. After

posting record net profits in 2015, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined in the subsequent three years on rising fuel and labor 

costs, and flat yields. Nevertheless, profits 

remain solid and supported by ancillary revenues and the implementation of increasingly sophisticated revenue management 

systems. These systems enable carriers to 

price fares optimally for each day and time of 

flight and minimize foregone revenue. Besides this method of price discrimination, airlines are continuing to implement plans to 

further segment their passengers into more 

discreet cost categories based on comfort 

amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and power outlets. In 

2015, Delta introduced “Basic Economy” 

fares that provided customers with a main 

cabin experience at lower cost in exchange 

for fewer options. By the end of 2017 these 

fares were available in 100% of Delta’s domestic network. In February 2017, American 

began offering its version, and had expanded 

to the entire domestic network by September. United deployed its version of Basic 

Economy fares across its domestic network 

in May 2017, but quickly pulled back the 

 

scale of deployment across its domestic network as negative revenue impacts were 

more than anticipated. 

The offering of Basic Economy fares has 

been part of an effort by network carriers to 

protect market share in response to the rapid 

growth low cost carriers (LCC) have 

achieved in recent years. While mainline enplanements have increased almost 23 percent since 2007, and regionals' have risen 2 

percent, low cost carrier enplanements have 

grown by 39 percent. RPMs over the same 

period show a similar pattern with mainline 

RPMs up almost 27 percent, regional RPMs 

up 11 percent and LCC RPMs fully 48 percent higher.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of 

domestic departures rose for the second 

year in a row in 2019, leaving them about 15 

percent below the 2007 level. ASMs, RPMs 

and enplanements, however, all grew in 

each of the past nine years; these trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and 

higher load factors.5

 In 2019, the domestic 

load factor bumped up to 85.1 percent – a 

new historic high. Load factor is forecast to 

rise and peak around 86.8 percent in the future due to the logistical difficulties inherent 

in matching supply perfectly with demand.

5 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.
16

 84.0

 84.5

 85.0

 85.5

 86.0

 86.5

 87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2019E 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor (right axis)

System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity increased 3.4 percent to 

1.236 trillion ASMs in 2019 while RPMs increased 4.3 percent to 1.044 trillion. During 

the same period system-wide enplanements 

increased 4.1 percent to 916.7 million. In 

2019, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the 

domestic over the international market in 

terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 4.0 percent while international capacity was up just 2.1 percent. U.S. 

carriers' domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in 

2020 but carriers will start expanding capacity in international markets faster than domestic markets beginning in 2022 and this 

trend is projected to continue through 2040

as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 4.3 percent in 2019 while regional carriers carried 3.5 percent more passengers. 

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements increased for the ninth consecutive 

year, up 4.3 percent, marking the first time 

since 2000 that the industry recorded nine

consecutive years of passenger growth in 

the domestic market. Mainline passengers in 

international markets posted the tenth year 

of growth, up 4.1 percent. Domestic mainline 

enplanement growth is forecast to remain 

strong, increasing at 5.5 percent in 2020 before slowing as economic activity cools and 

averaging 2.0 percent annually over the forecast. After slowing during the early part of 
17

the forecast, international mainline enplanements are expected to accelerate to an average of 3.2 percent through the forecast horizon.

With relatively robust demand, industry capacity growth was up 3.4 percent in 2019 after a 4.4 percent increase in 2018. The increased passenger volume and traffic offset 

slow yield growth and along with higher ancillary revenues and relatively low fuel prices, 

U.S. carriers were solidly profitable in 2019. 

Domestic mainline capacity is expected to 

match the pattern of enplanements with 

strong 5.7 percent growth in 2020, followed 

by more moderate growth at about the long 

term trend. International mainline enplanements are forecast to slow somewhat over 

the next two years before picking up and returning to growth of about 3.4 percent

through the remainder of the forecast.

System load factor rose by seven tenths of a 

percentage point while trip length increased 

2.2 miles (0.2 percent) in 2019, even as 

seats per aircraft mile increased by 0.9 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using 

larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system-wide increased to 157.5 seats (up 1.3 

seats per aircraft mile), the highest level 

since 1990.
18

International Market

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets, 

only to be reversed again in 2018 and 2019. 

Domestic enplanement growth is expected to 

outpace that of international markets for the 

next couple of years when longer term economic trends begin to reassert themselves. 

The average annual growth rate (FY 2020-

2040) of the international market (comprised 

of mainline and regional carriers) for enplanements is forecast to be 3.1 percent and, 

RPM and ASM are both forecast at 3.0 percent.

Growth of major global economies has begun to slow from the above-trend rates of recent years. Several moderating factors are 

at work, including dampened credit growth, 

reduced global trade, and political stresses. 

The European and Japanese economies are 

generally seeing slow but positive growth, in 

part due to weak trade with Asia. In turn, this 

has been driven by trade disputes as well as 

China's continuing gradual slowdown which 

has been managed by the government and 

is unlikely to decline sharply. Overall, global 

conditions appear to be on a stable path but 

one with growth rates that are closer to longterm trends than the higher rates of the recent past. Nevertheless, combined with 

moderate oil prices, this presents a supportive environment for air travel demand.

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market
19

 (10.0)

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

 (10.0)

 (8.0)

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

 8.0

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic Market International Market

As of the preparation of this forecast, growth 

rates of international activity for U.S. carriers 

in 2020 were expected to be solid at 2.7, 4.1, 

and 4.1 percent a year for enplanements, 

RPMs, and ASMs, respectively. This performance is predicated on strong U.S. economic fundamentals combined with nascent 

upturns in foreign economies but does not include impacts from the novel coronavirus.

Following the early part of the forecast, demand growth picks up to average about 3.0 

percent for each measure. Airlines will continue to match capacity growth with traffic 
20

growth and load factor is expected to stabilize around 82.9%. This surpasses the previous record high load factor seen in 2013. 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2019E 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination despite the 

recent economic and political crises in Venezuela and Brazil. Enplanements in 2019 

grew an estimated 4.0 percent while RPMs 

increased 2.2 percent. Growth is projected 

to ease considerably in 2020 and 2021 as 

U.S. carriers trim capacity expansion to support yields. Enplanements and RPMs are 

forecast to increase 0.6 and 1.1 percent, respectively, in 2020. Over the twenty-year period 2020-2040, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average 

rate of 3.8 percent a year while RPMs grow 

4.0 percent a year. 

The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of 

enplanements despite the economic growth 

and potential of air travel to the region's 

emerging markets. In 2019, U.S. carriers 

saw enplanements decline 0.9 percent from 

their 2018 levels, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in travel between the U.S. and China 

and India, markets that had recently posted 

very strong growth. Meanwhile, traffic 

(RPMs) increased by just 0.4 percent. Although the region is forecast to have the highest economic growth of any region over the 

next 20 years, led by China and India, U.S. 

carrier enplanements and RPMs for the Pacific region are forecast to grow a modest 2.2 

and 2.3 percent a year, respectively. Traffic 

growth is relatively moderate in part because 

U.S. carriers continue to have a majority of 

their service in the region to Japan as opposed to faster growing countries. 

After contracting in 2015 and 2016, the Atlantic region has accelerated steadily in recent years. By 2019, enplanements grew of 
21

7.0 percent as and RPMs expanded by 7.7

percent. This growth has been supported by 

U.S. demand as well as growth of Middle 

East and African markets, even as the European economies slowed in 2019. While 

Western Europe is a mature area with moderate economic growth, the economically 

smaller Middle East and Africa areas are expanding rapidly with GDP growth rates more 

than twice that of Europe. As a result, a 

larger share of the forecast aviation demand 

in the Atlantic region is linked to those two 

areas, particularly in the second half of the 

forecast period. Over the twenty-year period 

from 2020 to 2040, enplanements in the Atlantic region are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a year while 

RPMs grow 2.5 percent a year. 

88 91 101 115 131 147 164

88 91 99

115

134

156

182

44 45

53

62

71

80

90

32 32

36

41

47

53

60

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2019 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world increased an estimated 3.2

percent to 252 million in 2019 as all regions 

posted gains led by a 4.1 percent increase in 

the Atlantic region. 
22

FAA projects total international passenger 

growth of 2.9 percent in 2020 as global economic growth remains modest with the highest passenger growth expected in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. Moderate global economic growth averaging 2.9 percent a year 

over the next 20 years (2020-2040) is the 

foundation for the forecast growth of international passengers of 3.3 percent a year, as 

levels almost double from 252 million to 496 

million. 

The Latin American region is the largest international market and is projected to grow at 

the fastest rate (3.5 percent a year) of any 

region over the forecast period. Within the 

region, Mexico and Dominican Republic are 

the two largest markets and are expected to 

post average annual growth rates of 3.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.

Powered by economic growth and rising incomes in China, India and South Korea, total 

passengers in the Pacific region are forecast 

to more than double to 90 million by 2040. 

From 2020 to 2040, passengers between the 

United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.5 percent a year. 

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are 

more mature markets and are projected to 

have somewhat slower growth than the Latin 

or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent

a year as an increasing share of the passengers in this region come from the Middle East 

and Africa markets. Though sizable and 

comparable to Mexico in passenger traffic, 

the Canadian transborder market is considerably smaller than the Atlantic region. With 

solid North American economic growth, Canada transborder passengers are forecast to 

grow at an annual average of 3.2 percent a 

year over the next 20 years. 

Cargo

Air cargo traffic includes both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars, as well as from other air 

carriers. 

U.S. air carriers flew 42.9 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2019, up just 0.2 percent 

from 2018 with domestic cargo RTMs increasing 2.8 percent to 16.2 billion while international RTMs contracted 1.3 percent to 

26.6 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown by allcargo carriers comprised 80.3 percent of total RTMs in 2019, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the 

all-cargo carriers increased 2.3 percent in 

2019 while total RTMs flown by passenger 

carriers fell by 7.2 percent. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic 

spans four regions consisting of Atlantic, 

Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, globalization and trade. 
23

The forecasts of revenue ton miles rely on 

several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air 

cargo transportation will remain in place. 

Second, most of the shift from air to ground 

transportation has occurred. Finally, longterm cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs derive from models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs depend on growth 

in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs 

between passenger and all-cargo carriers 

based on an analysis of historic trends in 

shares, changes in industry structure, and 

market assumptions. 

After increasing by just 0.2 percent in 2019, 

total RTMs are expected to recover and grow 

4.5 percent in 2020. Because of steady U.S. 

and world economic growth in the long term, 

FAA projects total RTMs to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent for the balance of the forecast period (from 2020 to 

2040). 

Following a 2.8 percent increase in 2019, domestic cargo RTMs are projected to grow 1.9

percent in 2020 as the global trade slowdown 

impacts domestic activity. Between 2020 

and 2040, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 

percent. In 2019, all-cargo carriers carried 

90.9 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The 

all-cargo share is forecast to grow modestly 

to 92.2 percent by 2040 based on increases 

in capacity for all-cargo carriers. 

International cargo RTMs fell 1.3 percent in 

2019 after posting a 10.0 percent increase in 

2018. Trade disputes and slower economic 

growth around the world have materially impacted global trade. Growth in international 

RTMs recover in 2020, growing at 6.2 percent as foreign economies regain their footing and some trade disputes are resolved. 

For the forecast period (2020-2040), international cargo RTMs are expected to increase 

an average of 4.2 percent a year based on 

projected growth in world GDP with the Other 

International region having the fastest growth

(5.0 percent), followed by the Pacific (4.7 

percent), Atlantic (3.1 percent), and Latin 

America regions (1.3 percent). 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers is forecast to increase 

from 73.8 percent in 2019 to 79.0 percent by 

2040. 
24

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Since the survey is 

conducted on a calendar year (CY) base and 

the records are collected by CY, the GA forecast is done by CY. Forecasts of new aircraft 

deliveries, which use the data from General 

Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), 

together with assumptions of retirement 

rates, produce growth rates of the fleet by aircraft categories, which are applied to the GA 

Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are 

carried out for “active aircraft,”6 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in January and June. 

The results of the 2018 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The active GA fleet was estimated to be 211,749 

aircraft in 2018 (0.0 percent change from 

2017), as increases in fixed wing piston, fixed 

wing turbine, and experimental aircraft were 

offset by declines in rotorcraft and other aircraft (gliders and lighter than air). Total 

hours flown were estimated to be 25.5 million, up 1.2 percent from 2017. Increases in 

fixed wing piston and fixed wing turbine aircraft more than offset sharp declines in rotorcraft and experimental aircraft.

In 2019, deliveries of the general aviation aircraft manufactured in the U.S. increased 

slightly to 1,771, 1.4 percent higher than in 

CY 2018. Deliveries of single-engine piston 

aircraft were up 7.0 percent while multi-engine piston deliveries were flat. Business jet

deliveries were up by 6.3 percent, but turboprop deliveries were down by 13.3 percent. 

Overall piston deliveries were up 6.5 percent 

while turbine shipments were down by 3.2 

percent. Based on figures released by 

GAMA, they amounted to $14.0 billion in factory net billings, a record for the U.S. industry. 

 

6 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.
25

GAMA and industry experts reported the rotorcraft deliveries declined in 2019 in both 

piston and turbine segments. 

Against these current conditions, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The 

active general aviation fleet is projected to 

decrease slightly from its current level, as the 

declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet remain 

just above the increases in the turbine, experimental, and light sport fleets. The total 

active general aviation fleet changes from an 

estimated 212,335 in 2019 to 210,380 aircraft by 2040 (a small decline of 0.9 percent). 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 14,640 aircraft -- an average rate of 1.8 percent a year between 

2019 and 2040, with the turbojet fleet increasing 2.3 percent a year. The growth in 

U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts 

for the growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

forecast period by 26,365 aircraft (an average annual rate of -1.0 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing 

cost of aircraft ownership, availability of 

much lower cost alternatives for recreational 

usage, coupled with new aircraft deliveries 

not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline.

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.4 percent annually, adding 

about 2,730 new aircraft by 2040, more than 

doubling its 2018 fleet size. 

Shipments Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
26

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to marginally decline, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

forecast to increase an average of 0.7 percent per year through 2040 from 25.5 million 

in 2018 to 30.2 million, as the newer aircraft 

fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston 

hours are forecast to decrease by 1.0 percent, the same rate as the fleet decline. 

Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine 

aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to 

increase 2.2 percent yearly between 2019 

and 2040. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, with hours 

flown increasing at an average annual rate of 

2.7 percent over the forecast period. The 

large increases in jet hours result mainly from 

the increasing size of the business jet fleet. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
27

0

5,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, 

faces the challenges brought by lower oil 

prices, a trend which has been continuing. 

The low oil prices impacted utilization rates 

and new aircraft orders both directly through 

decreasing activity in oil exploration, and 

also through a slowdown in related economic 

activity. While significant use in other activities such as air medical, training, air taxi and 

tours continues, the 2018 GA Survey 

showed a 5.0 percent decrease in the active 

fleet and a 12.0 percent decrease in hours 

flown. The fleet is projected to grow at a similar rate to previous year’s forecast, although 

starting from a lower base and at a slower 

pace in the piston segment. Rotorcraft hours 

are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually 

over the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.2 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 664,565

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2019. The number of certificates in most pilot categories continued to increase, with the 

exception of private, rotorcraft only and recreational certificates. The FAA has suspended the student pilot forecast for the third 

consecutive year. The number of student pilot certificates has been affected by a regulatory change that went into effect in April 

2016 and removed the expiration date on the 

new student pilot certificates. The number of 

student pilots jumped from 128,501 at the 

end of 2016 to 149,121 by the end of 2017, 
28

and to 197,665 at the end of 2019. The 2016 

rule change generates a cumulative increase 

in the certificate numbers and breaks the link 

between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher. There is 

no sufficient data yet to perform a reliable 

forecast for the student pilots.

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates. The number of 

both commercial pilot and ATP certificates 

have been increasing for the last three years, 

to 100,863 and 164,947, respectively by the 

end of 2019. 

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to decrease about 12,120 (down 0.2 percent 

yearly) between 2019 and 2040. The ATP 

category is forecast to increase by 25,150

(up 0.7 percent annually). The much smaller 

category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 2.9 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private 

and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate 

of 0.6 and 0.1 percent, respectively until 

2040. 
29

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2009 2019 2029 2040

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Airline Transport Pilot

Rotorcraft only
30

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and contract towers is 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9

percent a year through 2040 from 53.3 million in 2019 to close to 64.6 million in 2040. 

Commercial operations7 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 1.6 percent a year, 

approximately four times faster than noncommercial operations. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in 

U.S. airline passengers (1.6 percent versus

2.2 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft 

mile) and higher load factors. Both of these 

trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate 

more passengers without increasing the 

number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 51.4 percent of 

operations in 2019) are forecast to increase 

an average of 0.4 percent a year as increases in turbine powered activity more 

than offset declines in piston activity. 

The growth in operations at towered airports 

is not uniform. Most of the activity at large 

and medium hubs8 is commercial in nature, 

given that these are the airports where most 

of the passengers, about 88 percent in 2019, 

in the system fly to.

 

7 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

8 Large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more 

of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in 

FY 2019. There are 30 airports in this category. 

Medium hub is defined to have at least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total U.S. revenue 

passenger enplanements in FY 2019. There are 

31 airports classified as medium hubs. 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010 2020 2030 2040

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower Operations

Commercial Non Commercial
31

Given the growth in airline demand and most 

of that demand is at large and medium hubs, 

activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than small 

towered airports including small FAA towers9

and FAA contract towers10. The forecasted 

annual growth is 1.7 percent at large hubs, 

1.6 at medium hubs, 0.5 percent at small 

FAA towers and FAA contract towers between 2019 and 2040. 

Among the 30 large hubs, the airports with 

the fastest annual growth forecast are those 

located along the coastal sections of the 

country where most large cities are located. 

Large cities have historically shown to generate robust economic activity, which in turn 

drives up the airline demand. On the other 

hand, the airports forecast to have slower annual growth tend to be located in the middle 

of the country. 

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations11 are forecast to grow 

slightly faster than at towered facilities. This 

is in part a reflection of the different mix of 

activity at Tracons. Tracon operations are 

forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year between 2019 and 2040. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 60 percent of Tracon operations in 

2019 and are projected to grow 1.5 percent 

a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to 

grow only 0.25 percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. 

Growth in airline traffic and business aviation 

is expected to lead to increases in activity at 

En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, 

aircraft handled at En-Route centers are 

forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.5 

percent a year, with commercial activity

growing at the rate of 1.7 percent annually. 

Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to 

grow faster than activity at towered airports 

and FAA Tracons because more of the activity at En-Route centers is from the faster 

growing commercial sector and high-end 

(mainly turbine) general aviation flying.12 In 

2019, the share of commercial IFR aircraft 

handled at FAA En-Route centers is about 

82 percent, which is greater than the 60 percent share at Tracons or the 44 percent

share at FAA and Contract Towers.

 

 

9 Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor 

FAA contract towers.

10 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers providing air traffic control services under 

contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic 

control specialists.

11 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights.

12 Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is 

local in nature, and does not impact the centers.
32

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,628 in 

2019 to 9,421 in 2040, an average annual 

growth rate of 1 percent a year. Increased 

demand for air travel and growth in air cargo 

is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2019 and 2040 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 4,388 to 5,310, a net average of 

44 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow-body fleet (including Eseries aircraft as well as A220-series at JetBlue and A220-series at Delta) is projected 

to grow 35 aircraft a year as carriers replace 

the 757 fleet and current technology 737 and 

A320 family aircraft with the next generation 

MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet 

grows by an average of 12 aircraft a year as 

carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the 

fleet while retiring 767-300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier 

wide-body fleet increases by 1.8 percent 

over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,361 aircraft in 2019 to 2,320 in 

2040 as the fleet shrinks by 1.7 percent (41

aircraft) between 2019 and 2040. Carriers 

remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older 

small turboprop and piston aircraft, while 

adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 

family after 2020. By 2031 only a handful of 

50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2040, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 2,192, up from 1,846 in 2019. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by 71% from 515 in 2019 to 128 by 

2040. These aircraft account for just 5.5 percent of the fleet in 2040, down from 21.8 percent in 2019. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 879 aircraft in 2019 

to 1,791 aircraft in 2040 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by 11 aircraft a 

year as 757’s and 737-800’s are converted 

from passenger use to cargo service. The 

wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 

33 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 777-200, 

and new and converted 767-300 aircraft are 

added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11, 

A300/310, and 767-200 freighters. 
33

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2009 2019 2029 2040

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
34

Commercial Space

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also 

direct the U.S. Department of Transportation 

to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. 

commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is 

to license and regulate commercial launch 

and reentry operations and non-federal 

launch sites to protect public health and 

safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of 

the United States. With its dual mission of 

regulating and facilitating the emerging commercial space transportation industry, FAA

faces unique challenges. 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the 

United States. The FAA does not license 

launches or reentries the U.S. Government 

carries out for the Government (such as 

those owned and operated by NASA or the 

Department of Defense). FAA does not license or grant permits for amateur-class 

rockets13. 

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs 

the following major functions:

 

13 Per 14 CFR Chapter 1, Part 1, section 1.1: Amateur rocket means an unmanned rocket that is 

propelled by a motor or motors having a combined total impulse of 889,600 Newton-seconds 

• Maintains an effective regulatory 

framework for commercial space

transportation activities,

• Provides guidance to prospective 

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for

obtaining an authorization and operating safely, 

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space

transportation activities,

• Evaluates applications for licenses

for launch and reentry site operations, 

• Monitors and enforces regulatory 

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

and other regulated commercial 

space activities,

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

or reentry,

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) by coordinating airspace

use and regulatory oversight with air 

traffic management and Federal

launch ranges, 

(200,000 pound-seconds) or less; and cannot 

reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers 

above the earth’s surface.
35

• Coordinates research into the safety, 

environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the

evolving commercial space transportation industry, 

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space transportation industry by

hosting working groups and conferences, 

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as NASA, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency 

(DARPA), and the U.S. Air Force to 

assure consistent approaches to regulations, policy, and standards, and

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world.

In addition to AST headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains staff with 

assigned duty locations near active launch 

ranges to facilitate communication with 

space launch operators and to implement 

FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are currently assigned to duty locations in close proximity to: 

Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Johnson 

Space Center in Texas, and Vandenberg Air 

Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space 

Port in California. FAA also directly supports 

NASA’s commercial space initiatives by 

providing on-site staff at both the Johnson 

Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to 

coordinate the FAA’s regulatory and enforcement activities with NASA’s development and operational requirements for commercial space.

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of 

FAA

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many activities performed by FAA

during this cycle. The most notable activities 

are described here. 

Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses, 

Experimental Permits and Safety Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, FAA assists them in identifying potential 

obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. In addition, many new operators are seeking to incorporate new technologies, vehicle types, or operational models 

creating challenges for FAA in determining

the applicable regulations or approach to 

regulatory compliance. 

Licenses, Permits and Safety Approvals

FAA authorizes commercial space transportation activities via the issuance of licenses, 

permits, and safety approval. Though many 

licenses authorize multiple launches (for mature launch systems), the need remains for 

FAA to also issue individual launch licenses

for systems that are still maturing towards a 

high level of reliability. Furthermore, with the

dynamic commercial space transportation industry, FAA often evaluates launch and

reentry systems and operations that are 

evolving and changing, which may ultimately 

require license modifications or issuance of 

new licenses.

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 
36

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 

health and safety or the safety of property, 

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States. 

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

or payload determination becomes part of 

the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing 

determination is based.

FAA also reviews and issues launch and 

reentry site operator licenses and license renewals. FAA also reviews and evaluates 

launch site license applications for launch

sites located in foreign countries but operating with U.S.-licensed launch or reentry systems. FAA coordinates range planning

among Federal, state, and local governments and with the commercial range operators or users. As part of the evaluation of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also 

conducts environmental reviews consistent

with its responsibilities under the National 

Environmental Policy Act. 

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety approvals for space launch systems 

equipment, processes, technicians, training

and other supporting activities. FAA reviews, 

evaluates, and issues safety approvals to support the continued introduction of new safety 

systems, safety operations applications, and

safety approval renewal applications.

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive 

safety analyses to support the evaluation and

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance of 

safety-critical space flight personnel to determine how they affect public safety risk. In the 

near future, as commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, AST and the FAA’s Office of Aerospace Medicine may evaluate, analyze, and

determine the health risks to the space flight 

participants (crew and space flight participants) due to natural and flight-induced

launch and reentry environments, as well as

any hazardous ground operations directly associated with the flight. 

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 400 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year. Inspections often occur simultaneously at any of the

11 licensed U.S. and international commercial space launch sites, as well as at 4 Federal launch ranges and 3 exclusive-use 

launch sites. The establishment of non-federal launch sites requires additional inspections in areas such as ground safety that

have traditionally been overseen by the U.S.

Air Force at Federal ranges. At spaceports 

and launch sites with high launch rates (e.g., 

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, and Spaceport America), 

at least 80 percent of the inspections will be

conducted by locally-based field inspectors

in order to respond to a dynamic operational 

tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency. 

Mishap Investigations

Mishap events have demonstrated that FAA

needs to have the capacity to investigate at 
37

least two space launch or reentry mishaps or 

accidents simultaneously anywhere in the

world, and to lead/oversee as many as six investigations during a single year. FAA

should have the capabilities and resources to 

safely perform the investigations lasting as

long as 16 weeks at remote sites with limited

infrastructure or facilities. FAA should have 

the capability and resources to efficiently review all applicant mishap plans and accident 

investigation procedures as part of the license and permit evaluation process. 

NAS Integration

AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP) to 

support the safe and efficient integration of 

commercial launch and reentry operations 

into the NAS and its system of airports and air 

traffic managed by the ATO. This includes

an increased presence at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center to assist in the

strategic and tactical planning of launch and

reentry operations, as well as to provide support during these operations. Further, AST

works with the ATO as FAA develops technologies to facilitate safe and efficient integration of commercial launch and reentry operations into the NAS, including technologies

to improve the integration of launch and 

reentry data into FAA air traffic control systems and technologies to improve the timely 

and accurate development and distribution of 

notices of aircraft hazard areas. 

FAA’s Operations Forecast

To improve its workforce planning process, 

in 2014, FAA adopted an approach to estimate its future staffing needs based on the

ratio of regulatory safety oversight staff to a 

forecast of launch and reentry operations 

within the purview of the FAA mission. Although it was a modest improvement, this 

change set the groundwork for FAA to implement a more objective and transparent process for projecting staffing requirements and 

also necessitated development of credible operations forecasts. Since 2014, FAA has 

made several important improvements to its 

operations forecast: 

• In 2015, FAA began using planned

launch and reentry data collected

from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its 

launch and reentry forecasts. This 

change enabled FAA to simplify and

improve its forecasting methodology 

by tying launch and reentry forecasts 

directly to anticipated operations by 

commercial space transportation firms 

known to FAA, rather than to aggregate industry demand.

• Because commercial spaceflight is a 

highly dynamic and rapidly evolving 

industry, it was quickly determined 

that operator-provided data alone 

were not sufficient to reliably predict

future activity. Consequently, a primary pillar of FAA’s forecasting 

methodology is to take a conservative view of industry growth in the 

near term. Therefore, in 2016, FAA

began refining its forecasting methodology by using observations about 

historical launch activity to establish 

better forecasting parameters for 

both new applicants and existing operators. 

Based on proprietary information available 

to FAA, a steady increase in launch and 

reentry activities is expected in the coming

years. There are several factors that magnify 

the challenges associated with predicting the 

number of launches and reentries to expect 

in a given year. They include:
38

• the list of firms intending to launch or 

actually launch is dynamic, 

• the continued development of new 

technologies, 

• launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,

• space tourism,

• dynamic nature of flight test programs, and 

• mishaps. 

For example, the number of firms actively 

communicating with FAA increased from 14 

in 2014 to 65 in 2019, an increase of more 

than 360 percent. New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)] allow a faster 

operational tempo, and at the same time, 

early use of these technologies can increase 

the probability of a mishap. A mishap can 

drastically impact launch plans for one or 

more firms. Investigations and subsequent 

“return to flight” for firms impacted by a mishap can take months to years. 

Taking these factors into account, the following table and graph provide industry’s forecast through 2022, FAA’s forecast through 

2021, and historical activity. The commercial 

space transportation industry continues to 

evolve and innovate at such a rapid pace that 

it is currently impractical to generate a credible, conservative forecast beyond the end of 

fiscal year 2021. 

Fiscal Year Industry ForecastFAA Forecast Actual

2015 37 22 – 25 14

2016 32 25 – 29 17

2017 78 17 – 26 22

2018 87 27 – 38 35

2019 89 33 – 44 32

2020 96 34 – 46

2021 168 40 – 56

2022 241

Notes: 

1. FAA forecast entries represent the Low to High estimate.

2. Industry Forecast for 2015 follows COMSTAC methodology from 2014. Industry forecasts for all other 

years follow the same methodology.
39

It is important to note all FAA-authorized 

commercial space operations are included in 

this forecast, regardless of where they occurred in the world. That is, not all launch 

and reentry activity occurs at one location, for 

example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and beyond, including multiple 

reentries in the Pacific Ocean and six licensed launches from New Zealand. This 

forecast, however, does not include launch 

activity not authorized by the FAA (e.g. U.S. 

Department of Defense or NASA launches),

launch activity for other nations, and this 

forecast is not tied exclusively to satellite demand.

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast 

Accuracy

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly 

evolving industry. The industry’s growth 

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging on an Accelerated 

Basis 

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies

and new approaches to space launch and

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their vertically launched rockets, 
40

a development that could significantly reduce

the cost of operations and lead to an increase in the number of launch and reentry 

operations per year. Other U.S. commercial 

entities are also pursuing the development of 

reusable launch vehicles (RLVs). At the

same time, state and local governments are 

joining with commercial firms to promote additional launch and reentry sites, and some 

firms are seeking to establish launch sites for 

their exclusive use. This added launch capacity sets the stage for simultaneous operations and an increase in the number operations per year.

New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation are Emerging

The continuing development of commercial 

space transportation technology has spurred

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As private industry continues 

to develop and test new vehicles capable of 

taking space flight participants on suborbital 

and orbital flights, companies and organizations are proposing to offer human space

flight training and several organizations have 

already begun to provide this service. States

and municipalities have sought to open new

spaceports to attract commercial space

transportation and associated high-tech

firms and create business hubs for research 

and development. Since 2008, NASA has 

managed the Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services from commercial providers 

to deliver cargo to and from the International 

Space Station (ISS). NASA is also working 

with commercial companies under its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities

contract to develop vehicles that will provide

transportation for astronauts and international partners to and from the ISS. Testing 

of Commercial Crew vehicles developed by 

SpaceX and Boeing has begun, and crewed 

operational launches licensed by the FAA 

may begin in 2020. NASA is also seeking 

proposals from industry for a program called 

Commercial Lunar Payload Services. The

commercial vehicles used by NASA for cargo 

and crew transportation will have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the commercial space transportation industry as a whole.

 

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers. 

Extensive FAA resources will be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests.
41

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Over the past few years, unmanned aircraft 

systems (UAS) have been experiencing 

healthy growth in the United States and 

around the world. A UAS consists of an unmanned aircraft platform and its associated 

elements—including communication links, 

sensors, software and power supply—that 

are required for safe and efficient operation 

in the national airspace system (NAS). While

introduction of UAS in the NAS has opened 

up numerous possibilities, it has brought operational challenges including safe integration into the NAS. Despite these challenges, 

the UAS sector holds enormous promise; potential uses include modelers experimenting 

with small UAS (sUAS) performing numerous functions such as aerial photography; 

recreational flying for personal uses; sUAS 

experimenting with package delivery on a 

commercial basis; delivery of medical supplies; and provision of support for search and 

rescue missions following natural calamities. 

This section provides a broad landscape 

covering recreational and commercial unmanned aircraft14 and their recent trends as 

gleaned from trends in registration, question-

 

naires, overall market, and operational information. Using these trends and insights from 

industry, the FAA has produced a number of

forecasts. Forecasts reported in the sections 

below are driven primarily by the assumptions of continuing evolution of the regulatory 

environment, the commercial ingenuity of 

manufacturers and operators, and underlying. While continuing to enable the thriving 

UAS industry, these efforts will continue the 

safe integration of UAS into the NAS. 

14 These are also called, interchangeably, hobby 

and non-hobby UAS, respectively. On October 5, 

2018, the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 (Pub. L. 115-254). Section 349 of 

that Act repealed the Special Rule for Model Aircraft (section 336 of Pub. L. 112-95; Feb. 14, 

2012) and replaced it with the new conditions to 

operate recreational small unmanned aircraft 

without requirements for FAA certification or operating authority. The Exception for Limited Recreational Operations of Unmanned Aircraft established by section 349 is codified as 49 U.S.C. 

44809 [see https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10169/exception-forlimited-recreational-operations-of-unmanned-aircraft for more details]. Recreational fliers, under 

Section 349, are referred to as recreational fliers 

or modeler community-based organizations in the 

last authorization [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/]. In 

previous notes including other documents of the 

Agency, these terms are often interchanged. 

Questionnaire of Recreational/Model 

Registrations

Before presenting sUAS trends and forecast, 

this section briefly reviews the results of a 

proto-type questionnaire for recreational/model sUAS operations conducted 

during September and October of 2019. The 

well-tested questionnaire asked individuals 

registered as recreational sUAS operators 

under Section 349 about their flight behavior 

and activities, preferred method of communication from the FAA, and the UAS topics in 

which they are most interested. The questionnaire was anonymous, voluntary, and 
42

conducted over the internet. Of those registrants contacted to participate in the questionnaire, 15,482 individuals—about 6% of 

registrants—completed the questionnaire.

Respondents reported that, on average, they 

fly approximately seven flights per month after adjusting for measurement error.

15 While 

most respondents fly fewer than seven times 

per month, there are respondents who fly 

more often as well, with some reporting as 

high as 300 flights per month.

Recreational respondents tend to fly about 

16 minutes per flight, on average. After adjusting for measurement error, we observe 

 

flight duration normally distributed around 

the mean of 15.6 minutes [see graph below].16

15 Analysis of responses suggest that individuals 

who reported flying 30 minutes or more per flight 

misconstrued the scope of the questions. To reduce the measurement error, respondents with 

30 minutes or more of flight time are removed 

from the sample. 
43

Respondents are estimated to fly, on average, 94 minutes per month [see graph below]. While most of the respondents log less flying time per month, between 20-40 

minutes, quite a few respondents tally far 

more active flying time as well. 

Generalizing the sampled individuals to all 

registrants, responses suggest that recreational sUAS operators log 1.5 million hours of 

flight time every month within the United 

States.

Turning our attention to communication preferences, respondents overwhelmingly receive communication from the FAA by email, 

with 74% of respondents reporting email 

among the sources of FAA information. The 

FAA website was a distant second at 28% of 

respondents. Only 17% of respondents reported some type of social media, with 

YouTube and Facebook as the preferred 

platforms. Only 6% of respondents reported 

receiving information about the FAA from 

community organizations. In the write-in 

section of the questionnaire, 3.4% of respondents reported preferring information by 

physical mail or mobile devices, either by text 

or app. The vast majority of respondents, 
44

90%, reported finding information from the 

FAA helpful.

Overall, respondents were overwhelmingly 

interested in new rules for recreational flyers 

(73%). Operating in controlled airspace or in 

prohibited altitude/airspaces were the next 

most interesting topics, at 37% and 43% respectively. The remainder of the options garnered interest from 25% respondents, on average. A complete distribution of the responses on topics of their concerns is provided in the chart below.
45

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft 

and Forecast

FAA’s online registration system for recreational/model sUAS went into effect on Dec. 

21, 2015. This required all UAS weighing 

more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and 

fewer than 55 pounds (or 25 kilograms) to be 

registered using the on-line system 

(https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/registration/) or the existing (paper-driven) aircraft registry. Following a temporary halt in registration due to an order 

from the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. in May, 2017, the registration requirement for all model aircraft was reinstated in December, 2017 with the National 

Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Despite 

the temporary halt, registration pace continued beyond May, 2017. On October 5, 2018, 

the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 that formalized new conditions for recreational use of drones. [See

https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=91844 for more details]. 

 

With the continuing registration, almost

990,000 recreational UAS owners had already registered with the FAA by December, 

2019.

17 On average, owner registration 

stood at around 9,000 per month during January-December, 2019 with some expected 

peaks during the holiday seasons and summer. 

 

17 For our estimate and projections using registration database, applying to recreational, nonmodel or commercial and remote pilots, we use 

only those who are registered in the U.S. and the 

territories. Furthermore, we only use those registrants who are “active”; those whose registrations 

have been canceled or withdrawn are not part of 

the data we report in this document. 
46

 

The pace of registration seems to have stabilized compared to last year in the same period; monthly owner registration during 2019 

stands at around the same level as in 2018.

Recreational registration, and thus ownership of sUAS, is distributed throughout the 

country. Using the data as available in December 2019, a spatial distribution of ownership at a county level below demonstrates 

that sUAS continue to be distributed throughout the country with denser ownership mapping closely against the population centers of 

the country, as expected.18

18 Registration data contains location of registrant 

by zip code. Registrants are mapped to counties 

by their reported zip code.
47

At present, the recreational ownership registration does not correspond one-to-one with 

aircraft in the system, the primary focus of 

the Agency. Unlike their commercial nonmodel counterparts, the registration rules for 

recreational operators do not require owners 

of recreational UAS to register each individual aircraft; only operators are registered. 

For each registration, therefore, one or more 

aircraft are possibly owned, with a few exceptions for no equipment ownership as well. 

Notwithstanding these challenges, there is 

information available, both from industry and 

academia, allowing us to understand aircraft 

ownership. Furthermore, under the sponsorship of the UAS Integration Research Plan, 

the Agency has launched various research 

activities to understand the possible magnitude of the sector as well as implications on

likely aircraft that may be used for recreational flying and safety implications of the 

UAS fleet from gradual integration into the 

NAS. Finally, the Agency has engaged outside consults to aid forecasting efforts for 

both the recreational and commercial UAS 

fleet in this past year as well. We use all 

these resources to analyze and forecast both 

UAS types’ activities in the U.S. 

With around 990,000 recreational operators 

registered as of December 31, 2019, we estimate that there are around 1.32 million fleet 

distinctly identified as recreational aircraft. 

Comparing with industry sales and otherdata 

noted above, we conclude that recreational

Recreational 
48

aircraft is almost 34% higher than ownership 

registration19. 

A comparison of last year’s data (2018) with 

this year’s (2019) shows the annual growth 

rate to be approximately 6.4%. Such a 

growth rate is expected due to the introduction of drones as a recreational UAS, which 

is facilitated by falling equipment prices, improved technology such as built-in cameras 

and higher capability sensors, and relatively 

easy maneuvering. However, similar to all 

technologies including hobby items, (e.g., 

cell phones and video game consoles; and 

prior to that, video cameras, and video players), the trend in recreational UAS has been 

slowing and is likely to slow down further as 

the pace of falling prices diminishes and the 

early adopters begin to experience limits in 

their experiments, or as eagerness plateaus. 

Given the trend in registration and market developments, we forecast that the recreational 

UAS market will saturate at around 1.5 million units. However, there is still some upside uncertainty due to further changes in 

technology including battery, facilitating regulatory environment, and the likely event of 

continued falling prices. This yields to some 

larger upside uncertainty in the forecast. In 

contrast, there is relatively less low-side uncertainty. Hence, we provide a forecast base 

(i.e., likely) with high and low scenarios, provided in the table below.

19 This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of craft corresponding to ownership registration. As craft becomes sturdier and operators situationally aware, 

we expect this rate to change dynamically over 

time. Furthermore, with FAA regulations increasingly encouraging recreational drones to be registered, as opposed to ownership, registration 

would soon come to represent equipment like 

commercial counterpart.

Total Recreation/Model Fleet

(Million sUAS Units)

year Low Base High

2019 1.32 1.32 1.32

2020 1.36 1.38 1.42

2021 1.37 1.42 1.49

2022 1.38 1.45 1.54

2023 1.39 1.47 1.57

2024 1.39 1.48 1.59

Last year, we forecasted that the recreational 

UAS sector would have around 1.314 million 

 

sUAS in 2019, a growth rate exceeding 5.5% 

from the year before (2018). Actual data 
49

came close to that projection with over 1.324 

million aircraft already by the end of 2019. 

Thus, our forecast of recreational sUAS last 

year undershot by less than 1% (or, -0.78%) 

for 2019 (or 1.324 million actual aircraft vs 

1.314 million aircraft that we projected last 

year). 

The FAA uses the trend observed in registrations, particularly over the past year; expert 

opinions collected in TRB annual workshops; 

review of available industry forecast; market/industry research; and a time-series 

model on registration trends fitted on monthly 

data. Using these, we forecast that the recreational UAS fleet will likely (i.e., base scenario) attain its peak over the next 5 years, 

from the present 1.32 million units to around 

1.48 million units by 2024. The high scenario 

may reach as high as 1.59 million units with 

low-side scenario yielding around 1.39 million units over the next 5 years. As evident, 

the growth rates underlying these numbers 

are fairly steady in the initial years, but fade 

faster in the last 2-3 years. The gradual saturation that is projected in 5 years and beyond in the recreational UAS fleet parallels 

other consumer technology products and the 

Agency’s projections from last year.

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecast

Online registration for part 107 or commercial sUAS went into effect on April 1, 2016. 

Unlike recreational/model ownership, rules 

for commercial registration require owners to 

register each sUAS, thus creating a one-toone correspondence between registration 

and aircraft. During the period of JanuaryDecember, 2019, more than 108,000 commercial operators registered their equipment. 

The pace of monthly registration, slightly 

above 10,000, is still relatively high but lower 

than the same period in 2018. It appears that 

the pace of registration is slowing down in 

comparison to 2018, but it is still over 2.5 

times higher than the pace at which commercial UAS owners registered their craft during 

the earlier period (i.e., April 2016 – November 2017). While the pace of recreational 

registration ownership has slowed down considerably, the pace of registration remains 

accelerated for their commercial counterparts. By the end of 2019, there were more 

than 385,000 commercial UAS registered 

since the registration opened.
50

For each month the registration has been 

available, over 4,600 aircraft/month were

registered until November, 2017. This pace 

accelerated to 14,600 registered per month 

during 2018. This past year (2019), average 

monthly registration stood at around 10,100. 

The commercial UAS sector is dynamic and 

appears to be at an inflexion point, demonstrating powerful stages of growth. Unlike 

the recreational UAS sector, the FAA anticipates that the growth rate in this sector will 

remain high over the next few years. This is 

primarily driven by the clarity that part 107

has provided to the industry; e.g., proposed 

new rule changes. [See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-

00732/operation-of-small-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people for operations 

over people and at night without waivers and 

remote identification https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/12/31/2019-

28100/remote-identification-of-unmannedaircraft-systems for remote identification 

NPRM]. Furthermore, given the possibilities 

for waivers, including enhancement of operational efficiencies under increasingly welldefined concepts of operations (CONOPS)

— which ensures safety and transparent information flow across the community — 

more and more commercial uses will become likely, fueling even further growth. Notably, one such place for receiving all operational information, including registration, authorization, and logging accident reports, 

helps facilitate this growth further [https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/]. 
51

As in the case of recreational UAS ownership, commercial sUAS are distributed 

across the country. A spatial distribution of 

equipment registration, using data for December 2019, demonstrates that commercial

sUAS are distributed throughout the country 

with denser activities mapping closely 

against the economic or commercial activities of the country. 

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the commercial UAS sector would have around 

400,000 sUAS in 2019, a growth rate exceeding 44% over the year before (2018). 

Actual data came close to that projection with 

over 385,000 aircraft already registered by 

the end of 2019. Our forecast of commercial

sUAS last year thus overshot by 4% for 2019 

(or 385,450 actual aircraft vs 400,455 projected last year). Forecasting in a time of 

such monumental transition is indeed challenging, and the commercial UAS sector’s 

fast growth is a demonstration of that fact. 

Nevertheless, our forecast errors for both 

recreation and commercial appear to be 

within the bounds of reasonableness.
52

Total non-Model Fleet

(no. of '000 units)

year Low Base High

2019 385 385 385

2020 467 507 594

2021 535 633 830

2022 567 731 1031

2023 586 786 1136

2024 598 828 1197

Given the trend observed in the registrations, 

information from survey conducted in 2018, 

review of available industry forecasts/workshop and UAS Symposium, and internal research together with market/industry research, the FAA forecasts that the commercial UAS fleet by 2024 will likely (i.e., base 

scenario) be more than twice as large as the 

current number of commercial UAS20. As the 

present base (i.e., the cumulative total) increases, the FAA anticipates the growth rate 

of the sector will slow down over time. Nevertheless, the sector will be much larger than 

what was understood only a few years ago. 

Given the accelerated registration over the 

last year, the FAA now projects the commercial sUAS sector will have around 828,000 

aircraft in 2024, the end of the 5-year period. 

In order to understand the growth trajectory 

of the sector better, this report divides the 

commercial UAS sector into two types of 

 

sUAS aircraft: consumer grade and professional grade. The consumer grade commercial sUAS have a wide range of prices, below 

US $10,000 with an average unit price of approximately $2,500. The professional grade 

is typically priced above US $10,000 with an 

average unit price assumed to be around 

$25,00021. For both consumer grade and 

professional grade UAS, the average price is

falling over time, particularly over the last few

years. Currently, the consumer grade dominates the commercial UAS sector with a market share approaching 94%. However, as 

the sector matures and the industry begins to 

consolidate, the share of consumer grade 

commercial UAS is likely to decline, though it

will still be dominant. By 2024, FAA projects 

this sub-sector will have approximately 85% 

of the overall commercial sUAS sector. 

Starting from a low base of approximately

25,000 aircraft in 2019, the professional 

20 Last year, the ratio of end-year of forecast to 

base year forecast was 3-times; i.e., we forecasted end-year to be 3 times the base year’s 

(2018) numbers in 5-year. 

21 Because of this wide range in prices between 

types of sUAS in commercial activities, start-up 

cost for a business may vary somewhere between $2,500 and $25,000. 
53

grade commercial sUAS sub-sector stands 

to expand rapidly over time, especially as 

newer and more sophisticated uses are identified, designed, and operationally planned 

and flown. If, for example, professional 

grade sUAS meet feasibility criteria of operations, safety, regulations, and satisfy economics and business principles and enters 

into the logistics chain via small package delivery, the growth in this sector will likely be 

phenomenal. This growth trajectory could be 

even further enhanced by expanding operations, e.g., the Low Altitude Authorization 

and Notification Capability (LAANC) system22, which began authorization in May, 

2018. LAANC is designed to allow considerable flexibility in sUAS operations and to facilitate sUAS use of the NAS. While most of

the near-term growth in commercial sUAS 

will continue to come from consumer grade 

units (over 90%), the FAA anticipates a significant part will come from professional 

grade sUAS as well. 

Unlike its recreational UAS counterpart, it is 

extremely difficult to put a floor on the growth 

of the commercial UAS sector due to its composition (i.e., consumer vs professional 

grades) and the varying business opportunities and growth paths. As commercial UAS

become operationally more efficient and 

safe, battery life expands, and regulatory 

constraints are gradually relaxed, new busi-

 

ness models will begin to develop, thus enhancing robust supply-side responses. 

These responses, in turn, will pull demand 

forces (e.g., consumer responses to receiving commercial packages; routine blood delivery to hospitals, search-and-rescue operations, just to name a few) that are somewhat 

latent and in the experimental stage at present. Unlike a developed sector such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to 

put a marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core 

demand), primarily driven by economic and 

demographic factors underlying this sector. 

Nevertheless, in this year’s forecast the FAA 

makes a provisional attempt to provide a low 

side for now, essentially capturing the intrinsic demand. In addition, we provide the likely 

or base scenario together with the enormous 

potential embodied in the high scenarios, 

representing cumulative annual growth rates 

of 17% and 35%, respectively. Average annual growth rate corresponding to the low 

scenario, on the other hand, is around 9%. 

Commercial sUAS are presently used for numerous purposes. As the sector grows, the 

FAA anticipates there will be many more 

uses for and much more use of commercial 

sUAS as is increasingly evident, for example, 

from the participants’ activities under the Integration Pilot Program (IPP). FAA awarded 

10 communities, among a pool of 149 applicants, [https://www.faa.gov/uas/pro22 Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/] or LAANC automated the application/approval process for airspace authorizations. Requests submitted via 

FAA approved UAS Service Suppliers (USS) are 

checked against airspace data in the FAA UAS 

Data Exchange such as temporary flight restrictions, Notice to Airmen (NOTAMS), and the 

UAS Facility Maps (UASFM). Approved requests 

thus provide the FAA/ATO visibility into where 

and when planned drone operations will take 

place. 
54

grams_partnerships/integration_pilot_program/lead_participants/] membership in the 

IPP in May, 2018. IPP applications and preliminary data indicate that awardees overwhelmingly pursuing numerous private business and public interest activities.

One way of identifying early trends in commercial sUAS use is to analyze the waiver 

applications granted to sUAS operators. 

Both the magnitude and relative composition 

of waiver types may indicate the direction of 

the commercial sUAS sector as a whole. A 

breakdown of the waiver requests granted in 

December, 2019 is shown in the chart below

Beyond the daytime operation that is presently allowed under existing part 107 rules, 

expanding applications further requires waivers, to a large extent, for night operations as 

distinct from daylight operations (over 1 in 5 

waivers); there are also limitations on altitude, for which waiver requests are made at 

a rate of 2.7%. Many of these waivers are 

combined, and thus total waivers (i.e., full + 

partial) granted (over 3,500 in December 

2019) exceed 100%. The Agency issues 

these waivers to facilitate business activities 

by sUAS while preparing for the next round 

of regulations that will routinely allow the present waiver requirements. [See 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/13/2019-00732/operation-ofsmall-unmanned-aircraft-systems-over-people for current NPRM on operations of small 

unmanned aircraft over people in certain 

conditions, and operations of small UAS at 

night without obtaining a waiver]. Analysis of 

these waiver applications allows us to understand the industry trends, one of many metrics essential for understanding and projecting the trajectory, course corrections, and 

growth trends of the sector. 
55

Almost 50% of airspace authorizations and 

waivers were approved for the controlled airspaces at the end of December, 2019. While 

over half were for class D airspace (i.e., 

smaller airports with control towers), other 

classes were also requested and regularly 

flown.

Finally, LAANC has been routinely providing

auto-approval since its inception in May, 

2018, and covers all airports presently. It has 

provided, so far, over 148,000 auto-approvals for airspace access requests [see below];

over 100,000 more since this time last year, 

while sending over 30,000 for further coordination (an increase of over 23,000 from last 

year). LAANC authorizations are facilitated 

by the use of UAS facility maps (UASFM) 

[https://faa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvi

ewer/index.html?id=9c2e4406710048e19806ebf6a

06754ad] that provide maximum allowed altitudes around airports where the FAA may 

authorize part 107 UAS operations without 

additional safety analysis. The UAS facility 

maps are used to inform requests for part 

107 airspace authorizations and waivers in 

controlled airspace.
56

Remote Pilot Forecast 

An important final metric in commercial

sUAS is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. RPs are used primarily to facilitate 

commercial sUAS flights. As of December 

2019, 162,185 RP certifications have been 

issued23. 

Part 107 RP certifications require completing 

a multi-step process beginning with obtaining 

an FAA tracking number via the creation of 

an Integrated Airman Certification and Rating Application (IACRA) profile prior to registering for a knowledge test. Following this initial step, scheduling and passing the initial 

aeronautical knowledge test at a Knowledge 

Testing Center is required. Provided that 

one has passed this test, the applicant is required to fill out FAA Form 8710-13 in 

 

23 In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who 

passed the initial knowledge test (or part 107) 

plus current manned pilots who took online training in lieu of the knowledge test (or part 61). 

IACRA. A confirmation email is sent when 

an applicant has completed the necessary 

TSA security background check. This email 

contains instructions for printing a copy of the 

temporary remote pilot certificate from 

IACRA. A permanent remote pilot certificate 

is sent via mail once all other FAA-internal 

processing is complete. An RP certificate is 

valid for two years and certificate holders 

must pass a recurrent knowledge test every 

two years at a Knowledge Testing Center. It 

is required that RPs carry their certificate 

whenever flying a sUAS. 

Certifications for part 61 operators, on the 

other hand, require that an applicant must 

hold a pilot certificate issued under 14 CFR 

part 61, and must have completed a flight review within the previous 24 months. Since 
57

Part 61 airmen already have IACRA profiles 

established, they are required to complete, 

like part 107 operators, FAA Form 8710-13 

in IACRA. Upon completion of this form, 

proof of current flight review, and proof of 

online course completion, part 61 operators 

are required to meet with FAA representatives at the FAA Flight Standards District Office (FSDO), or with an FAA-designated pilot 

examiner (DPE), or an airman certification 

representative (ACR) or an FAA-certificated 

flight instructor (CFI) who issues the RP certificate to the part 61 operator. Like their part

107 counterparts, certificates for part 61 operators are valid for 2 years and require renewal. [See https://www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/become_a_drone_pilot/

for more details]. 

Following the process above, the FAA classifies RPs into two categories: 

• those who do not hold any pilot certificate other than the part 107, or Remote Pilot only; and 

• those who hold a part 61 certificate

and a part 107 certificate, or part 61 

and Remote Pilot. 

The chart below provides a distribution of 

these two types of RPs who presently have 

certificates.
58

Over 2/3 of the RPs are part 107 RPs only. 

Over 90% of those who took the exam 

passed and obtained RP certification. A cumulative density distribution of remote pilots 

at a county level is provided in the map below.24

The RP forecast presented below are based 

on three primary data sources: (a) trends in 

total RPs; (b) renewal trends; and (c) trends 

in commercial sUAS registration and forecast of fleet. Given the trends in registration 

and our forecast of the commercial UAS 

fleet, the FAA assumes that one RP is likely 

to handle 2.38 units of commercial sUAS.

 

Using these assumptions and combined with 

the base scenario of commercial sUAS forecast, the FAA project RPs in the graph below. 

Last year, the FAA projected RPs to be 

around 167,500 by the end of 2019; which 

fell short by 5,000.

24 Remote pilot data contains location by zip code. 

Remote pilots are mapped to counties by their reported zip code.
59

Given the actual numbers at the end of 2019, 

the FAA made the adjustments to RPs per 

commercial sUAS (2.38), thus lowering it 

slightly from last year’s, 2.4. Despite this adjustment, RPs are set to experience tremendous growth following the growth trends of 

the commercial sUAS sector. Starting from 

the base of 162,185 RPs in 2019, commercial activities may require almost 350,000 

RPs in 5 years, more than two-fold increase, 

providing tremendous opportunities for 

growth in employment associated with commercial activities of UAS. Potential for RPs 

may enhance even more if larger UAS are 

used in commercial activities and urban air 

mobility become a reality in the near future. 

Larger UAS

According to FAA rules, UAS weighing 55 

pounds or greater must be registered using 

the existing aircraft registration process (see 

https://faadronezone.faa.gov/#/). At present, 

many of these aircraft fly within the NAS by 

federal agencies including the Departments 

of Defense (DoD), Homeland Security 

(DHS), Interior (DOI), Energy (DOE), and 

Agriculture, as well as NASA, state governments, local governments, and academia. In 

order to calculate larger UAS (lUAS) in the 

NAS, we employ multitudes of data from various sources: the Certificate of Authorization 

(COA) Online system and its successor 

CAPS or COA Application Processing System; MITRE’s Threaded Track infusing data 

from different sources (see https://www.mitre.org/publications/technical-papers/threaded-track-geospatial-data-fusionfor-aircraft-flight-trajectories); FAA’s Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems or PDARS (see 

https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/perf_tools/ for more 

details); and Notices to Airmen (NOTAM) 

(See https://notams.aim.faa.gov/#Applications). 

Combining these data sources, MITRE estimates 206 lUAS operation in the NAS in 

2019. This is a 20% increase from the 172 

lUAS operating in 2018. Most of the lUAS 

introduced in 2019 are operated by government agencies, with the DoD claiming the
60

bulk of the aircraft. Military lUAS have begun 

to increase after several years of declining 

operates in the NAS, suggesting the military 

fleet is expanding. The other source of lUAS 

growth is from the increased use of lUAS in 

commercial applications. Most of the commercial lUAS are operated in public-private 

partnerships, but these pilot programs are 

paving the way to widespread commercial 

use of lUAS in the future. 

Since lUAS cannot operate under part 107, 

commercial operators must obtain an exemption under section 44807 [see 

https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/section_333/how_to_file_a_petition/

for more details]. With the exemption, commercial operators are allowed to register 

their lUAS as aircraft under part 47 and operate them under part 91. As such, the number of exemptions granted for UAS larger 

than 55 lbs is the lower bound for the number 

of commercial lUAS in operation. In 2017, 

five new exemptions for lUAS were granted 

while six new lUAS were registered under 

part 47, and 22 new exemptions were issued 

with 22 lUAS added to the register in the following year. As such, the increase in the 

number of exemptions heralds an increase in 

the number of lUAS operating in the NAS. 

Exempts are expected to increase over the 

next couple of years. In 2019, 19 companies 

were issued new FAA exemptions for commercial lUAS, the majority for agricultural 

purposes. For 2020, seven companies with 

federal-agency sponsorship are expected to 

seek exemptions for lUAS as well as several 

other non-sponsored companies. This suggests an upward trend in the number of exemption and hints at increasing demand for 

commercial lUAS.

Year Exemptions Larger UAS No. of Flights

2015 0 184 4,709

2016 0 172 6,785

2017 5 159 7,066

2018 22 172 7,223

2019 19 206 8,240

2020 21 243 9,720

2021 25 274 10,960

2022 34 309 12,360

2023 48 352 14,080

2024 67 407 16,280

Larger UAS (>55 lbs) forecast in the NAS

Combining the baseline growth from the military and civilian agencies and projections of 

commercial exemptions under 44807, lUAS 

are expected to increase by 37 aircraft in 

2020 due to more commercial applications 

and an expansion of military and civilian aircraft. As commercial use accelerates and 

military investment stabilizes over the next 

half decade, lUAS are projected to increase 

to 407 aircraft by 2024. However, the sunset 

of Section 44807 in September, 2023 could 
61

drastically flatten and reduce number of 

lUAS after 2024 if an alternative is unavailable.

Correspondingly, the number of lUAS flights 

is expected to increase from the estimated 

7,360 in 2019 to 16,280 by 2024, but a considerable number of the additional flights are 

likely for agricultural applications, operating 

well below controlled airspace.

Urban Air Mobility 

In Sept 2017, NASA launched a study to assess the segment of autonomous vehicles 

broadly called Urban Air Mobility (or UAM). 

UAM is defined as “a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation within an urban area, inclusive of small 
62

package delivery and other urban Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) services, 

which supports a mix of onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations.” (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-embracesurban-air-mobility) UAM technology presents considerable opportunity for economic 

growth over the coming decades. Markets 

for UAM services, such as delivering packages by drone or large cargo or unmanned 

passenger shuttles, have a huge potential 

both in the United States and globally. However, UAM services are likely to face stiff 

competition from technological advances in 

industries with close substitutes, such as 

ground transportation. In addition, the high 

costs of urban infrastructure to facilitate 

these activities could slow down UAM adoption.

Package or larger cargo delivery, on the 

other hand, is the UAM service that is most 

likely to see economic growth in the next decade. By 2030 “last mile package delivery” 

could be profitable at a price point of $4.20 

per delivery and may result in around 500 

million deliveries annually with a fleet of 

40,000.

25 

Airport shuttles and other fixed-route passenger services are the UAM passenger services most likely to gain economic traction in 

 

the coming decade. Under some assumptions, a highly-automated “air metro” could 

be profitable by 2028 and by 2030, it may result in 750 million annual passenger trips in 

15 metro areas or 137 thousand passenger

trips/day/area. Under more conservative assumptions, UAM market may yield $2.5 billion in passenger transport market revenue 

with around 8.2 thousand passenger

trips/day/area. While air ambulance model 

may not be profitable, it may have high impact on public good [see 

https://www.nasa.gov/uam-studies-reports/]. 

Some others estimate the UAM passenger 

industry to have 23,000 aircraft with 740 million enplanements per year at a price of 

around $30 per trip by 2030.26 However, 

other studies have reported more conservative estimates, arguing the market penetration is likely limited to a handful of major metropolitan areas where geography and economic conditions are conducive to UAM market development. As such, estimates by 

KMPG only predict 60.4 million enplanements by 2030 and a much smaller industry 

size.27 Similarly, Roland Berger estimates a 

fleet of only 12,000 passenger UAS by 

2030.28 However, given the current safety, 

technology, and urban environment challenges, even these projections may likely to 

be somewhat optimistic within the timeframe. 

25 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc). 26 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. (See 

https://www.nasa.gov/uamgc).

27 Getting Mobility Off the Ground, 2019, KPMG. 

(See https://institutes.kpmg.us/manufacturing-institute/articles/2019/getting-mobility-off-theground.html). 28 Urban Air Mobility: The rise of a new mode of 

transportation, Nov. 2018, Roland Berger. (See 

https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Publications/Passenger-drones-ready-for-take-off.html).
63

Passenger services promise larger markets 

for UAM services, but safety realities and 

technology may limit UAM’s wide penetration 

into the passenger-services market. On the 

other hand, the UAM passenger industry is 

likely to be conspicuous due to an inflow of 

venture capital and experimental services 

exploring market potentials.

As the sector grows and new initiatives are 

undertaken, the Agency is keeping a keen 

eye on understanding the exploratory trajectory and growth trends in UAM. As more information becomes available, the FAA will 

likely provide emerging trends and forecast 

in the near future.
64

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, 

at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and 

global economies. Shifting international dynamics and impacts resulting from the U.S.

administration’s economic policies could 

drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest worldwide risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist 

incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be 

greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity.

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus 

(COVID-19) that began in early 2020 now 

presents a new risk without clear historical 

precedent. Although the FAA forecast is a 

long-term trend forecast and does not focus 

on short-term perturbations, the great uncertainty surrounding the impact of the virus 

leaves open the possibility that it could affect 

values for 2020 and 2021. This uncertainty 

arises from not being able to assess the 

spread or intensity of the human consequences, whether within the U.S. or abroad, 

as well as the breadth and depth of possible 

economic fallout. If the increase in infections 

is brought under control relatively quickly, 

producer supply chains suffer little damage,

and worker output and productivity are only 

slightly depressed, then a one-quarter decline followed by a one-quarter rebound in 

aviation activity might be a reasonable outcome. In that case, it could be that the consequence to annual numbers is quite subdued. On the other hand, of course, a less 

optimistic outcome could occur, resulting in 

longer term impacts to the industry.

Although oil prices moved lower in 2019 from 

the previous year, recent volatility reminds us 

there is still considerable uncertainty as to 

the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s 

baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s November 

2019 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during August 2019) calls for oil 

prices to decrease to $46 per barrel in 2021 

and rise gradually thereafter. By 2030, oil 

prices are projected to exceed $80 per barrel 

and reach $104 per barrel by the end of the 

forecast period in 2040. Some forecasters 

are calling for a more gradual rebound in the 

price of oil. In October 2019, the World Bank 

released its latest commodity price forecast. 

The forecast calls for oil prices to hold steady 

at about $59 per barrel until 2021. After 2021 

prices rise gradually and reach $70 per barrel by 2030. However, there are other oil 

price forecasts that are considerably more 

aggressive than the FAA base forecast. The 

latest Energy Information Administration 

(EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in 

January 2020, sees oil prices rising approximately 4.0% per year between 2019 and 

2040. By 2040, the spot price of oil ranges 

from $138 per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) to $146 per barrel (Brent), considerably 

above the FAA base forecast of $104. Over 

the long run, lower oil prices give consumers 

an impetus for additional spending, including 

air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil prices turn out 

to be higher than the FAA forecast, we would
65

expect lower spending on air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel to airlines and 

reduced industry profitability. 

The baseline forecast incorporates additional 

infrastructure spending in 2020 and beyond. 

However, there is considerable uncertainty 

as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of 

these programs that ultimately determines 

the impact on the future growth of the U.S. 

economy. In addition, how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over 

the next several years continues to evolve. 

Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along 

with increased financial stability could occur 

but there is also the possibility of an outcome 

that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that the 

global economic slowdown that began in 

2019 will continue until 2021 as weakness in 

Europe and a slowdown in China constrains 

global growth. Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be 

growth engines for emerging economies as 

China successfully transitions the economy 

from heavy reliance on manufacturing and 

resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors 

and India continues to implement reforms to 

make its economy more competitive. In the 

United States, economic growth has slowed

from 2018’s level as the effects of the 2017

tax cuts on demand are beginning to wane, 

and at the same time demand has slowed in 

Japan and in the European Union as these 

areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems (high debt, slow 

population growth, weak public finances, for 

example) and political instability. Furthermore, the actions taken to stabilize the global 

economy during the Great Recession continue to hamper economic policy makers. In 

some of the major advanced economies, 

governments need to shore up their finances 

and recent actions have many analysts concerned that policy makers will not take the

steps needed. There exists a non-trivial possibility that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps to maintain a healthy 

global economy. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Further slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the 

growth in global passenger demand.

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be 

rather limited. Based on FY 2019 data, the 

top 6 (American, Delta, United, Southwest

plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue) accounted 

for almost 85% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. For many low cost carriers, 

the sheer size of merger transactions or the 

amount of risk associated with a merger 

makes further merger activity unlikely. For 

the network carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authorities will respond to any future 

proposed mergers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new 

rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a 

lack of pilots. Although air travel demand has 

been strong, the bankruptcy filings of Republic Airways in 2016, Great Lakes Airlines in 

2018 and Trans States Airlines in 2020 

(planned) are reminders that financial pressures on regional operators have not abated. 

Network carriers continue to adjust the size 

and breadth of their networks and, in many
66

cases, are significantly reducing the numbers of small regional jets. While these actions may provide some opportunities for well 

positioned regional carriers, the overall impact so far has been to reduce opportunities 

for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, partial recovery of business and 

corporate aviation continues. The future 

pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is based largely upon the prospects for economic growth and corporate 

profits. Uncertainty in these leading indicators poses a risk to the forecast, but the risk 

is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental regulations and taxes do not seem to be as 

much of a concern in the short term, but over 

the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward 

pressure on the forecast. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of larger regional 

jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into 

the national airspace system will make the 

FAA’s job more challenging. This change in 

the mix of aircraft will most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the 

growth in operations over the forecast period. 

While overall activity at FAA and contract 

towers increased 2.9 percent in 2019, activity 

at large and medium hub airports (61 in total)

increased 1.8 percent and 1.9 percent in 

2019 and delays remained at historically high 

levels at many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts 

operations at these airports to grow substantially faster than the overall national trend. As 

demand continues to grow and workload increases, congestion and delays could become critical limits to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand 

and operations are unconstrained in that 

they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion 

and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of 

both demand and operations would not be 

achieved. 

Increasing concerns about aviation's environmental impacts could potentially limit or 

delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow 

to meet national economic and mobility 

needs. Airspace modernization and airport 

expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, water quality, and climate change. 

Community concerns about aviation noise 

have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. 

Without effective measures to mitigate and 

abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to 

achieve aviation growth may be delayed. 

The environmental noise and emissions issues associated with overflight operations 

also present global challenges. In addition to

providing economic benefits, technologies to 

improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce 

fuel consumption provide benefits in terms of 

reduced emissions; many technologies that 

improve fuel efficiency also result in reduced 

noise. The implementation of the Carbon 

Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach
67

that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations 

around the world is used. Continued advancements in technologies that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and reduced emissions are also required to ensure that access 

restrictions or operating limitations are not 

imposed on the in-service fleet, which in turn 

may depress growth. The continued deployment of sustainable aviation fuels, (i.e., dropin fuels that are compatible with today’s aviation infrastructure but are derived from biomass or waste resources), will also help to 

reduce emissions that affect air quality near 

airports and address concerns about climate 

change. 
68

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-

year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were 

used. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from IHS Markit’s 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

August 2019 US Economy: The 30-Year Focus were utilized. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create a “high” 

and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios 

use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS

Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create high and 

low cases. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth remains slightly 

 

above trend in the near term, supported primarily by consumer spending. Recent tax 

cuts and favorable financial conditions contribute to that spending but after 2020, slower 

federal government spending and trade act 

as headwinds to GDP growth. Oil prices remain moderate by historic standards and 

there are no external shocks. 

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees stronger overall growth driven

mainly by an increase in productivity in a low 

inflation environment. This results in 

stronger real wage growth and an improved 

employment outlook, leading to increased 

consumer spending and housing and business investment. Confidence is high and the 

stock market sees strong gains while the unemployment rate remains slightly lower than 

in the baseline scenario. Technological improvements lower the production costs of oil

and, despite increased demand, the price of 

oil is largely below that of the baseline. 

In this scenario, real personal consumption 

expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.3 percentage points faster per year

than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.2 points lower on a fiscal 

year basis than the baseline.

29 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this 

forecast, a broad loss in confidence and 

29 Real PCE per capita and unemployment are 

used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high 

and low forecast of enplanements.
69

growing aversion to risk leads to declines in 

a wide range of investment and consumer 

spending categories. The economy slows 

with GDP growth below one percent, but still 

positive, for four years. GDP growth averages 0.6 percentage points lower than in the 

baseline over the forecast horizon.

In addition to slower GDP growth in this scenario, productivity, the labor force and capital 

investments also grow more slowly than in 

the baseline. Personal income growth is 

pressured leading to depressed consumer 

confidence and spending, with durable 

goods consumption, particularly of housing 

and motor vehicles, impacted the most. Financial conditions are tight and the higher interest rates reflect concerns about the inflationary outlook, given the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy and accelerating inflation. Inflation is fanned by higher commodity 

prices and rising energy prices, wages, and 

import prices combine to push consumer 

price inflation above the baseline.

Oil prices rise faster than the baseline 

throughout the forecast and are $60 per barrel higher by 2040. Real PCE per capita in 

this scenario grows 0.5 percentage points 

slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.6 points higher 

on an annual basis than in the baseline.

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
70

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

 390

2019 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

 6.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
71

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow 

growth of energy prices and import prices 

counteracts faster growth of other consumer 

goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

rise somewhat slower than the baseline. In 

the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages 

and import prices all rise more rapidly compared to the baseline. 
72

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Index Value (2019 = 100)

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
73

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2020-2040 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 2.0 and 3.1 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a quicker pace, averaging 2.5 percent per 

year (up 2.4 percent domestically and 3.6 

percent internationally). This scenario is 

marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices which make 

the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the 

forecast period in 2040, system passengers 

in the optimistic case are 9.8 percent above 

the baseline, totaling 1.6 billion, 144 million 

greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened personal income growth 

and consumer confidence combined with a 

contraction in financial asset markets, leading to higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and consumer spending. In this 

scenario, enplanements grow an average of 

1.6 percent per year (domestic up 1.4 percent and international up 2.8 percent). In the 

pessimistic case, system passengers in

2040 are 12.6 percent below the baseline 

case, totaling 1.3 billion, or 186 million fewer 

than in the baseline.

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
74

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2020-2040), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 2.3 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 3.0 

percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 2.9 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.7 and

3.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.0

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.6 percent a year while international traffic grows 2.7 percent annually.

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Available Seat Miles 

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 2.4 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 2.2 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 3.0 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a 

faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 2.8 percent annually system-wide (2.6 

and 3.5 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 
75

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment. 

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.9 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 1.6 percent annually and international up 2.7 percent annually).

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. System load factor rises from 

84.6 percent in 2020 to 85.6 (optimistic), 85.5

(pessimistic), and 85.6 (baseline) percent in 

2040.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 85.3 percent to 86.8 

percent in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios, and from 85.3 percent to 86.9 percent 

in the optimistic one. 

The international load factor is forecast to 

hold steady near 82.9 throughout the period

in the optimistic scenario and rise slightly to 

83.0 percent in the baseline and pessimistic

scenarios. This reflects in part the relative 

growth in demand and capacity in the three 

(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.
76

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 1.7 percent annually, rising

from 13.81 cents in 2020 to 19.33 cents in 

2040. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.89 cents in 2020

to 19.60 cents in 2040. International yield 

rises from 13.61 cents in 2020 to 18.71 cents 

in 2040. 

System yield rises in the optimistic case at a 

slower rate than in the baseline, up 1.3 percent annually to 17.85 cents by 2040. Domestic yield increases to 17.80 cents while 

international yield increases to 17.96 cents. 

The modest growth in yield in both cases is 

due to advancements in technology, gains in 

productivity, and relatively favorable fuel 

prices.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 2.9 percent annually, reaching 

24.70 cents by 2040 (26.16 cents domestically and 21.67 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the 

baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in 

order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital.
77

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2019-2040

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2019E 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2019-20 2020-25 2020-30 2020-35 2020-40

Economic AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 40,037 40,390 42,437 45,234 48,064 50,731 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1%Expenditure per Capita Baseline 40,037 40,877 44,247 48,266 52,246 56,213 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

(2012 $) Optimistic 40,037 41,257 46,741 51,145 55,518 60,037 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 59.7 65.3 82.0 110.5 136.5 169.4 9.3% 4.7% 5.4% 5.0% 4.9%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 59.7 53.0 64.0 83.5 93.6 104.2 -11.2% 3.8% 4.6% 3.9% 3.4%

Optimistic 59.7 54.7 60.4 69.6 73.7 79.2 -8.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.54 2.61 3.08 3.68 4.39 5.28 2.6% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.54 2.60 2.91 3.25 3.62 4.03 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%

Optimistic 2.54 2.59 2.82 3.10 3.39 3.72 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 3.7 4.5 5.5 4.9 4.4 4.6 20.3% 4.2% 0.9% -0.2% 0.1%

(%) Baseline 3.7 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 -7.2% 5.3% 2.4% 1.2% 1.1%

Optimistic 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 -11.0% 4.2% 2.4% 1.3% 1.1%

Source: IHS Markit
78

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2019-2040

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2019E 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2019-20 2020-25 2020-30 2020-35 2020-40

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,235.7 1,273.6 1,377.3 1,535.5 1,696.8 1,858.6 3.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%(BIL) Baseline 1,235.7 1,298.7 1,450.8 1,645.4 1,859.9 2,089.0 5.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Optimistic 1,235.7 1,311.6 1,558.1 1,788.5 2,031.9 2,299.2 6.1% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 1,044.0 1,077.9 1,172.2 1,310.3 1,450.3 1,589.8 3.2% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%(BIL) Baseline 1,044.0 1,099.3 1,235.3 1,405.2 1,591.1 1,788.7 5.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Optimistic 1,044.0 1,110.3 1,327.1 1,527.5 1,738.2 1,968.6 6.3% 3.6% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9%

Enplanements Pessimistic 916.7 940.9 1,000.5 1,093.1 1,190.6 1,282.4 2.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%(MIL) Baseline 916.7 963.9 1,064.6 1,190.2 1,326.4 1,468.0 5.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

Optimistic 916.7 975.6 1,149.6 1,292.8 1,446.5 1,612.2 6.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,845.3 8,034.9 8,480.8 9,247.4 10,040.4 10,797.5 2.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%(MIL) Baseline 7,845.3 8,212.5 8,977.8 9,985.6 11,092.0 12,243.3 4.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 7,845.3 8,303.5 9,668.5 10,852.3 12,109.6 13,463.2 5.8% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,369.9 9,536.4 9,758.2 10,323.7 10,915.9 11,416.1 1.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%(000s) Baseline 9,369.9 9,740.6 10,372.5 11,252.5 12,165.5 13,069.0 4.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Optimistic 9,369.9 9,877.7 11,220.1 12,197.5 13,225.1 14,301.9 5.4% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.74 14.02 15.85 18.23 21.13 24.70 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9%(cents) Baseline 13.74 13.81 15.08 16.57 17.90 19.33 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%

Optimistic 13.74 13.84 14.75 15.85 16.80 17.85 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
79

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2019-2040

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2019E 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2019-20 2020-25 2020-30 2020-35 2020-40

Domestic Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 883.6 907.4 963.4 1,049.9 1,146.2 1,236.0 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

(BIL) Baseline 883.6 932.2 1,032.5 1,156.0 1,290.8 1,432.0 5.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Optimistic 883.6 944.8 1,120.7 1,257.2 1,409.0 1,574.4 6.9% 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 752.2 774.3 828.9 907.6 993.6 1,073.3 2.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6%

(BIL) Baseline 752.2 795.4 888.5 999.4 1,119.0 1,243.6 5.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Optimistic 752.2 806.3 964.4 1,086.9 1,221.6 1,367.4 7.2% 3.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%

Enplanements Pessimistic 813.3 834.9 881.9 952.6 1,029.2 1,097.0 2.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%(MIL) Baseline 813.3 857.7 945.2 1,049.0 1,159.1 1,271.1 5.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 813.3 869.4 1,026.0 1,140.9 1265.3 1,397.6 6.9% 3.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 6,256.8 6,391.8 6,642.8 7,104.6 7,624.2 8,081.2 2.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%(MIL) Baseline 6,256.8 6,567.7 7,122.1 7,825.7 8,590.7 9,368.5 5.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Optimistic 6,256.8 6,657.3 7,733.3 8,514.3 9,381.0 10,304.8 6.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,672.2 8,824.4 8,973.7 9,405.4 9,870.5 10,227.6 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

(000s) Baseline 8,672.2 9,026.8 9,581.8 10,326.2 11,077.9 11,800.7 4.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%

Optimistic 8,672.2 9,162.9 10,402.5 11,203.5 12,050.8 12,924.5 5.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.86 14.19 16.35 19.20 22.31 26.16 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%(cents) Baseline 13.86 13.89 15.21 16.77 18.13 19.60 0.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%

Optimistic 13.86 13.92 14.76 15.82 16.75 17.80 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%
80

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2019-2040

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2019E 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2019-20 2020-25 2020-30 2020-35 2020-40

International Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 352.0 366.2 414.0 485.6 550.6 622.6 4.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%

(BIL) Baseline 352.0 366.5 418.3 489.4 569.1 657.0 4.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%

Optimistic 352.0 366.7 437.5 531.3 623.0 724.8 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 291.8 303.6 343.2 402.7 456.7 516.5 4.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%

(BIL) Baseline 291.8 303.8 346.8 405.8 472.0 545.1 4.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%

Optimistic 291.8 304.0 362.7 440.5 516.7 601.2 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5%

Enplanements Pessimistic 103.4 106.1 118.7 140.5 161.5 185.4 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%(MIL) Baseline 103.4 106.2 119.4 141.3 167.3 196.9 2.7% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1%

Optimistic 103.4 106.3 123.6 152.0 181.2 214.6 2.7% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,588.5 1,643.0 1,838.0 2,142.8 2,416.3 2,716.4 3.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%

(MIL) Baseline 1,588.5 1,644.9 1,855.7 2,159.8 2,501.4 2,874.7 3.5% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

Optimistic 1,588.5 1,646.2 1,935.2 2,338.1 2,728.7 3,158.4 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 697.7 712.0 784.5 918.4 1,045.4 1,188.4 2.0% 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

(000s) Baseline 697.7 713.8 790.7 926.3 1,087.6 1,268.4 2.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%

Optimistic 697.7 714.8 817.5 994.0 1,174.3 1,377.4 2.5% 2.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.42 13.60 14.63 16.04 18.56 21.67 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4%(cents) Baseline 13.42 13.61 14.77 16.08 17.36 18.71 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Optimistic 13.42 13.63 14.71 15.91 16.90 17.96 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
81

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of 

uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment 

and reliance on industry knowledge and the 

forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. 

The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no 

exception. Given the volatile nature of the 

U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that 

each year’s forecast would contain a certain 

degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA 

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be 

able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the 

variance from historical results for a primary 

forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2019 forecast period. Although many of the forecasts 

prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline industry was 

going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast 

methodology remained consistent during this 

time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might 

lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current 

forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute 

percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP. 

Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of 

years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” 

column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 4.7 percent for ASM 

forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For 

the period under examination, preparation of 

the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2019 

occurred in FY 2009 through FY 2018. 30 

 

30 It should be noted that the first forecasted year 

for each respective fiscal year is that very same 

year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 

2012. 
82

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2019)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 1.0% 2.3% 4.6% 6.5% 8.1%

ASMs 0.8% 1.9% 4.7% 8.2% 11.7%

RPMs 0.8% 1.6% 4.0% 7.1% 9.9%

Passenger Enplanements 0.6% 1.5% 4.2% 7.3% 9.9%

Mainline Domestic Yield 2.3% 4.7% 7.1% 8.9% 10.1%

Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers 0.8% 2.7% 6.2% 10.0% 14.7%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

 

Presenting forecast variances from actual 

data in such a manner simplifies a review of 

longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to increase as the forecast 

year is moves away from the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of 

changes in the relative variances by time 

horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, 

are similar to the variances of the key traffic 

measures, Passenger Enplanements and 

RPMs. This suggests that a substantial 

amount of the forecast variance for the traffic 

variables is attributable to the forecast error 

in the exogenous variables. Second, all the 

metrics examined have increasing variances 

as the forecast time horizon lengthens. 

Third, the variance in the Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers relative to 

ASM variance is stable for the 2 to 5 year out 

horizon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year 

forecast horizon carriers are able to accommodate changes in capacity by means other 

than adjusting operations. Many carriers 

have been systematically reducing the number of smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft. 

This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. 
83

Appendix C: Forecast Tables
84

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2019 FISCAL YEAR 2020 FISCAL YEAR 2021

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2012 $) 39,766 39,807 40,181 40,393 40,590 40,786 40,975 41,155 41,335 41,511 41,676 41,830Year over year change 0.7% 0.4% 3.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars per barrel) 59.61 57.03 63.60 58.60 54.42 52.67 54.38 50.60 44.94 43.65 44.29 46.61Year over year change -44.6% -16.2% 54.6% -27.9% -25.6% -12.2% 13.6% -25.1% -37.8% -11.0% 6.0% 22.7%Consumer Price Index(1982-84 equals 100) 252.8 253.3 255.1 256.3 257.8 258.9 260.4 261.3 261.8 262.9 264.3 266.0Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1.5% 0.9% 2.9% 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6%

Source: IHS Markit
85

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2012 $) (2012 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical

2010 15,500 34,165 2.17 74.612015 17,322 36,907 2.37 56.692016 17,600 37,654 2.39 39.122017 17,984 38,369 2.44 48.162018 18,523 39,306 2.50 63.722019E 18,961 40,316 2.54 59.71

Forecast

2020 19,349 40,877 2.60 53.022025 21,199 44,247 2.91 64.022030 23,581 48,266 3.25 83.512035 25,946 52,246 3.62 93.652040 28,374 56,213 4.03 104.20

Avg Annual Growth

2010-19 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% -2.4%

2019-20 2.0% 1.4% 2.1% -11.2%

2020-30 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 4.6%2020-40 1.9% 1.6% 2.2% 3.4%

Source: IHS Markit
86

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA / 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2010 1,400 21,273 4,613 18,934 64,293

2015 1,557 23,157 5,174 24,341 74,354

2016 1,572 23,678 5,164 25,528 76,3802017 1,622 24,319 5,259 26,852 78,969

2018 1,655 24,825 5,329 28,163 81,501

2019E 1,682 25,148 5,365 29,401 83,598

Forecast2020 1,707 25,467 5,427 30,649 85,7192025 1,844 27,824 6,026 38,027 98,3962030 2,012 30,621 6,995 46,429 113,5232035 2,197 33,599 8,155 55,186 129,3472040 2,402 36,756 9,487 64,810 146,485

Avg Annual Growth

2010-19 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 5.0% 3.0%2019-20 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 4.2% 2.5%2020-30 1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 4.2% 2.8%2020-40 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 3.8% 2.7%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
87

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(NAFTA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 18,745 11,187 2,651 4,179 7,4732015 20,951 11,667 2,930 4,390 10,9162016 21,296 11,887 2,986 4,412 11,6502017 21,814 12,207 3,043 4,509 12,4362018 22,427 12,437 3,085 4,524 13,2552019E 22,905 12,583 3,123 4,573 14,071

Forecast

2020 23,353 12,697 3,142 4,586 14,8872025 25,553 13,512 3,341 4,773 19,4202030 28,465 14,397 3,596 5,001 24,5312035 31,361 15,298 3,861 5,227 29,5582040 34,441 16,201 4,134 5,460 34,879

Avg Annual Growth

2010-19 2.3% 1.3% 1.8% 1.0% 7.3%2019-20 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 5.8%2020-30 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 5.1%2020-40 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.9% 4.3%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
88

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 635 77 712 555 231 7862015 696 90 787 629 261 8902016 726 93 820 663 265 9282017 744 97 841 684 271 9552018 781 100 880 720 281 1,001

2019E 813 103 917 752 292 1,044

Forecast2020 858 106 964 795 304 1,0992025 945 119 1,065 889 347 1,235

2030 1,049 141 1,190 999 406 1,4052035 1,159 167 1,326 1,119 472 1,5912040 1,271 197 1,468 1,244 545 1,789

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 2.8% 3.3% 2.8% 3.4% 2.6% 3.2%

2019-20 5.5% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 4.1% 5.3%

2020-30 2.0% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.9% 2.5%

2020-40 2.0% 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 3.0% 2.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
89

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical

2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.82015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 890 83.42016 783 663 84.7 329 265 80.6 1,112 928 83.52017 809 684 84.5 335 271 81.0 1,144 955 83.52018 850 720 84.7 345 281 81.5 1,195 1,001 83.82019E 884 752 85.1 352 292 82.9 1,236 1,044 84.5

Forecast2020 932 795 85.3 366 304 82.9 1,299 1,099 84.62025 1,033 889 86.1 418 347 82.9 1,451 1,235 85.12030 1,156 999 86.5 489 406 82.9 1,645 1,405 85.42035 1,291 1,119 86.7 569 472 82.9 1,860 1,591 85.52040 1,432 1,244 86.8 657 545 83.0 2,089 1,789 85.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 3.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.2%2019-20 5.5% 5.8% 4.1% 4.1% 5.1% 5.3%2020-30 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5%2020-40 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
90

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 2312015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 2612016 24 55 14 93 105 87 73 2652017 25 58 14 97 106 90 75 2712018 26 60 13 100 112 94 75 2812019E 28 62 13 103 121 96 75 292

Forecast

2020 30 63 14 106 130 97 77 3042025 33 71 15 119 148 112 87 3472030 37 87 17 141 169 139 98 4062035 42 107 19 167 189 172 110 4722040 46 130 21 197 211 211 123 545

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.4% 5.1% 0.3% 3.3% 1.2% 4.7% 2.7% 2.6%2019-20 6.9% 0.7% 2.2% 2.6% 7.4% 1.2% 2.4% 4.1%2020-30 2.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.9% 2.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.9%2020-40 2.2% 3.7% 2.2% 3.1% 2.5% 4.0% 2.3% 3.0%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
91

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 158

2015 70 75 36 27 2072016 75 79 39 28 2202017 79 82 41 29 2322018 85 86 42 31 2442019E 88 88 44 32 252

Forecast2020 91 91 45 32 259

2025 104 102 55 37 2982030 123 124 66 44 3572035 143 150 78 51 4222040 164 182 90 60 496

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 4.2% 5.3%2019-20 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.9%2020-30 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3%2020-40 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3%Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  data also received from Transport Canada.
92

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.22015 131.5 214.8 149.0 902.7 2,892.6 1,131.02016 134.8 214.8 151.5 913.2 2,833.8 1,132.22017 137.8 217.2 154.3 918.9 2,798.6 1,135.62018 139.9 219.1 156.2 921.9 2,820.1 1,136.72019E 141.2 221.6 157.5 924.9 2,821.4 1,138.9

Forecast2020 141.9 222.8 158.1 927.4 2,861.2 1,140.42025 145.0 225.4 161.6 940.0 2,904.6 1,160.32030 147.7 226.6 164.8 952.7 2,873.2 1,180.62035 150.3 227.5 167.7 965.4 2,821.2 1,199.52040 152.8 228.6 170.6 978.4 2,768.0 1,218.4Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
93

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 7102015 543 87 630 556 259 8152016 575 90 665 590 262 8522017 595 93 689 612 269 8812018 627 96 723 645 279 9242019E 654 100 754 674 290 963

Forecast

2020 690 103 792 712 301 1,0142025 760 116 876 795 344 1,1392030 844 137 981 894 403 1,2972035 932 163 1,095 1,000 469 1,469

2040 1,023 192 1,214 1,111 541 1,652

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 3.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.8% 2.6% 3.4%

2019-20 5.5% 2.6% 5.1% 5.7% 4.1% 5.2%

2020-30 2.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.5%

2020-40 2.0% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 2.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
94

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.52015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.72016 692 590 85.3 325 262 80.7 1,017 852 83.82017 718 612 85.2 331 269 81.1 1,049 881 83.92018 756 645 85.3 342 279 81.6 1,098 924 84.12019E 785 674 85.8 349 290 83.0 1,134 963 84.9

Forecast2020 828 712 86.0 363 301 83.0 1,192 1,014 85.12025 917 795 86.7 415 344 83.0 1,332 1,139 85.62030 1,026 894 87.2 486 403 83.0 1,511 1,297 85.82035 1,144 1,000 87.4 565 469 83.0 1,709 1,469 85.92040 1,268 1,111 87.6 652 541 83.0 1,920 1,652 86.0

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 3.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1% 3.1% 3.4%

2019-20 5.5% 5.7% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 5.1% 5.2%2020-30 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5%2020-40 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
95

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.22016 24.4 51.5 14.0 89.92017 24.8 54.7 13.9 93.52018 26.0 56.9 13.3 96.22019E 27.9 59.1 13.2 100.2

Forecast2020 29.8 59.5 13.5 102.82025 33.4 67.2 15.0 115.72030 37.4 82.7 16.9 137.12035 41.7 102.1 18.9 162.72040 46.3 124.6 21.0 191.9

Avg Annual Growth

2010-19 1.4% 5.3% 0.3% 3.3%2019-20 6.9% 0.6% 2.2% 2.6%2020-30 2.3% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9%2020-40 2.2% 3.8% 2.2% 3.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
96

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.22015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.82016 134 105 78.0 104 85 81.4 87 73 83.9 325 262 80.72017 134 106 79.5 107 88 82.3 91 75 82.2 331 269 81.12018 138 112 81.0 111 92 82.2 92 75 81.7 342 279 81.62019E 146 121 82.9 112 94 83.4 91 75 82.6 349 290 83.0

Forecast2020 156 130 82.9 113 95 83.4 94 77 82.6 363 301 83.02025 179 148 82.9 131 109 83.4 105 87 82.6 415 344 83.02030 203 169 82.9 163 136 83.4 119 98 82.6 486 403 83.02035 228 189 82.9 203 169 83.4 133 110 82.6 565 469 83.02040 255 211 82.9 249 207 83.4 149 123 82.6 652 541 83.0

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.2% 1.2% 4.1% 4.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%2019-20 7.4% 7.4% 1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4.1% 4.1%2020-30 2.7% 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9%2020-40 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.0% 2.3% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
97

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical

2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.22015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.82016 159.9 241.7 174.1 266.6 219.8 175.12017 162.3 243.4 176.4 267.5 221.8 177.32018 164.2 247.5 178.1 265.2 223.2 178.92019E 166.1 251.6 178.1 269.9 225.7 180.8

Forecast2020 166.7 252.1 178.6 270.6 226.9 181.42025 169.6 254.6 181.1 274.4 229.4 184.62030 172.0 257.1 183.6 278.1 230.4 187.22035 174.1 259.6 186.1 281.9 231.1 189.62040 176.2 262.1 188.6 285.6 232.0 191.9Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
98

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,2962015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,2922016 1,027 4,291 1,650 5,176 2,917 1,2832017 1,028 4,278 1,602 5,373 2,875 1,2792018 1,029 4,299 1,610 5,638 2,895 1,2772019E 1,030 4,330 1,582 5,709 2,890 1,278

Forecast2020 1,033 4,352 1,590 5,721 2,933 1,2802025 1,046 4,440 1,622 5,776 2,976 1,3012030 1,059 4,502 1,642 5,816 2,938 1,3222035 1,072 4,538 1,656 5,842 2,880 1,3412040 1,086 4,561 1,664 5,854 2,821 1,360

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
99

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 14.76 12.84 15.02 12.69 14.852015 14.79 15.89 14.16 15.21 14.59 15.672016 13.96 14.86 12.88 13.71 13.62 14.502017 13.91 14.51 12.90 13.46 13.60 14.192018 13.92 14.17 13.58 13.84 13.82 14.072019E 14.12 14.12 13.47 13.47 13.92 13.92

Forecast2020 14.15 13.87 13.66 13.38 14.00 13.722025 15.49 13.56 14.82 12.97 15.29 13.392030 17.09 13.36 16.14 12.61 16.79 13.132035 18.47 12.99 17.42 12.25 18.14 12.752040 19.98 12.62 18.78 11.86 19.58 12.37

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.3% -0.5% 0.5% -1.2% 1.0% -0.7%2019-20 0.2% -1.8% 1.4% -0.6% 0.6% -1.5%2020-30 1.9% -0.4% 1.7% -0.6% 1.8% -0.4%2020-40 1.7% -0.5% 1.6% -0.6% 1.7% -0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
100

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 14.90 13.33 15.60 12.50 14.63 12.84 15.022015 14.64 15.72 14.38 15.45 13.20 14.18 14.16 15.212016 13.83 14.72 12.72 13.54 11.69 12.45 12.88 13.712017 13.58 14.16 13.40 13.98 11.36 11.85 12.90 13.462018 14.38 14.65 14.13 14.39 11.73 11.94 13.58 13.842019E 14.04 14.04 14.20 14.20 11.63 11.63 13.47 13.47

Forecast2020 14.25 13.97 14.36 14.08 11.80 11.57 13.66 13.392025 15.54 13.63 15.42 13.52 12.84 11.26 14.82 12.992030 16.97 13.29 16.62 13.01 14.04 10.99 16.14 12.632035 18.40 12.96 17.74 12.49 15.25 10.74 17.42 12.272040 19.95 12.64 18.89 11.97 16.56 10.50 18.78 11.90

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.1% -0.7% 0.7% -1.0% -0.8% -2.5% 0.5% -1.2%2019-20 1.5% -0.5% 1.2% -0.8% 1.4% -0.5% 1.4% -0.5%2020-30 1.8% -0.5% 1.5% -0.8% 1.8% -0.5% 1.7% -0.6%2020-40 1.7% -0.5% 1.4% -0.8% 1.7% -0.5% 1.6% -0.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
101

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2019 $ 

(Cents)

Historical

2010 219.19 256.45 220.12 257.55 219.49 256.812015 207.29 222.72 211.77 227.53 208.96 224.512016 146.17 155.61 147.01 156.51 146.47 155.932017 162.31 169.31 160.79 167.72 161.76 168.732018 206.63 210.47 208.42 212.29 207.29 211.142019E 205.66 205.66 207.81 207.81 206.62 206.62

Forecast

2020 189.22 185.41 191.20 187.34 190.10 186.272025 212.93 186.42 215.16 188.36 213.93 187.292030 280.36 219.16 283.29 221.45 281.67 220.182035 316.82 222.80 320.13 225.12 318.30 223.832040 352.46 222.60 356.13 224.92 354.10 223.63

Avg Annual Growth

2010-19 -0.7% -2.4% -0.6% -2.4% -0.7% -2.4%2019-20 -8.0% -9.8% -8.0% -9.8% -8.0% -9.8%2020-30 4.0% 1.7% 4.0% 1.7% 4.0% 1.7%2020-40 3.2% 0.9% 3.2% 0.9% 3.2% 0.9%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
102

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions) 

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS 

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical2010 11,306 15,971 27,276 1,495 6,246 7,742 12,801 22,217 35,0182015 11,636 16,359 27,995 1,455 6,277 7,733 13,091 22,636 35,7272016 11,998 16,236 28,234 1,373 6,136 7,509 13,372 22,372 35,7442017 13,062 17,587 30,649 1,579 6,958 8,537 14,641 24,545 39,1862018 14,182 19,465 33,647 1,580 7,532 9,112 15,761 26,997 42,7592019E 14,737 19,668 34,405 1,468 6,986 8,453 16,205 26,654 42,858

Forecast

2020 15,020 20,953 35,973 1,485 7,346 8,831 16,505 28,300 44,8042025 16,133 26,908 43,041 1,537 8,831 10,368 17,670 35,739 53,4092030 18,301 35,050 53,350 1,677 10,743 12,420 19,978 45,792 65,7712035 20,113 42,881 62,994 1,772 12,243 14,015 21,885 55,123 77,0082040 22,018 51,143 73,161 1,862 13,562 15,424 23,880 64,705 88,585

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 3.0% 2.3% 2.6% -0.2% 1.3% 1.0% 2.7% 2.0% 2.3%2019-20 1.9% 6.5% 4.6% 1.2% 5.2% 4.5% 1.9% 6.2% 4.5%2020-30 2.0% 5.3% 4.0% 1.2% 3.9% 3.5% 1.9% 4.9% 3.9%2020-40 1.9% 4.6% 3.6% 1.1% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 3.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
103

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)Historical2010 6,786 1,990 7,897 5,545 22,2172015 6,627 1,639 9,018 5,352 22,6362016 6,639 1,565 8,851 5,316 22,3722017 7,061 1,689 9,939 5,857 24,5452018 7,554 1,846 10,422 7,176 26,9972019E 7,426 1,663 10,429 7,135 26,654

Forecast2020 7,894 1,640 11,124 7,642 28,3002025 9,318 1,644 14,403 10,374 35,7392030 11,052 1,867 18,754 14,119 45,7922035 12,833 2,031 22,947 17,312 55,1232040 14,591 2,143 27,619 20,352 64,705Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.0% -2.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.0%

2019-20 6.3% -1.4% 6.7% 7.1% 6.2%2020-30 3.4% 1.3% 5.4% 6.3% 4.9%2020-40 3.1% 1.3% 4.7% 5.0% 4.2%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
104

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

LARGE 

JETS

REGIONAL 

JETS

TOTAL 

JETS

Historical2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,943

2016 3,457 2 0 3,459 490 0 27 517 3,976 97 4,073

2017 3,539 1 0 3,540 517 0 0 517 4,057 98 4,1552018 3,678 0 0 3,678 541 0 0 541 4,219 98 4,3172019E 3,775 0 0 3,775 553 0 0 553 4,328 60 4,388

Forecast2020 3,706 0 0 3,706 516 0 0 516 4,222 60 4,2822025 3,723 0 0 3,723 527 0 0 527 4,250 60 4,3102030 3,799 0 0 3,799 607 0 0 607 4,406 52 4,4582035 4,126 0 0 4,126 702 0 0 702 4,828 16 4,8442040 4,505 0 0 4,505 805 0 0 805 5,310 0 5,310

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 2.1% -100.0% N/A 2.1% 1.8% N/A -100.0% 0.6% 1.9% -1.9% 1.8%

2019-20 -1.8% N/A N/A -1.8% -6.7% N/A N/A -6.7% -2.4% 0.0% -2.4%

2020-30 0.2% N/A N/A 0.2% 1.6% N/A N/A 1.6% 0.4% -1.4% 0.4%2020-40 1.0% N/A N/A 1.0% 2.2% N/A N/A 2.2% 1.2% -99.9% 1.1%
105

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 789

2016 235 19 2 256 328 149 77 554 8102017 243 16 2 261 360 149 85 594 8552018 213 11 2 226 392 120 100 612 8382019E 216 10 2 228 419 120 112 651 879

Forecast2020 224 11 2 237 440 118 111 669 906

2025 258 6 2 266 547 113 123 783 1,049

2030 346 0 0 346 729 112 122 963 1,3092035 398 0 0 398 920 103 114 1,137 1,5352040 457 0 0 457 1,223 17 94 1,334 1,791

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 3.9% -22.9% N/A -2.6% 5.2% -5.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.4%2019-20 3.7% 10.0% N/A 3.9% 5.0% -1.7% -0.9% 2.8% 3.1%

2020-30 4.4% N/A N/A 3.9% 5.2% -0.5% 0.9% 3.7% 3.7%

2020-40 3.6% N/A N/A 3.3% 5.2% -9.2% -0.8% 3.5% 3.5%
106

 

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

AIR 

CARRIER

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

Historical2010 12,036 6,315 18,351 1,435 19,786 2 221 223 20,009

2015 12,834 6,541 19,374 1,383 20,757 2 196 198 20,9552016 13,441 6,467 19,699 1,437 21,136 2 206 208 21,3452017 13,868 6,668 20,535 1,541 22,076 2 206 208 22,2852018 14,553 7,121 21,674 1,820 23,494 2 232 234 23,7282019E 14,598 7,043 21,641 1,879 23,521 2 231 233 23,754

Forecast2020 15,247 7,260 22,507 1,934 24,441 2 230 232 24,6732025 16,069 7,884 23,953 2,152 26,105 2 218 220 26,3252030 17,117 8,777 25,894 2,354 28,248 2 211 213 28,4602035 18,186 9,711 27,896 2,519 30,416 2 206 208 30,6232040 19,195 10,667 29,862 2,689 32,551 2 205 207 32,758

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 2.2% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.9%2019-20 4.4% 3.1% 4.0% 2.9% 3.9% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 3.9%2020-30 1.2% 1.9% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% -0.9% -0.9% 1.4%2020-40 1.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 1.4%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
107

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2018 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 56.1 53.2 56.0 464 503 465 15.74 18.412015 59.9 62.6 60.0 475 695 480 10.93 11.742016 61.5 68.9 61.8 481 723 487 11.31 12.042017 63.0 70.8 63.2 482 718 487 11.30 11.792018 63.8 70.8 64.0 487 680 491 11.32 11.532019E 64.3 70.8 64.4 492 685 496 11.50 11.50

Forecast2020 64.9 71.1 65.0 494 688 498 11.53 11.29

2025 67.5 72.6 67.6 504 703 508 12.61 11.042030 70.0 74.1 70.1 515 717 519 13.90 10.872035 72.6 75.6 72.7 525 731 529 15.02 10.57

2040 75.4 77.1 75.4 535 746 539 16.24 10.26

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 0.7% -3.4% -5.1%2019-20 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% -1.8%2020-30 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.9% -0.4%

2020-40 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% -0.5%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

** Reporting carriers.
108

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 162 3 164 75,030 1,347 76,3772015 153 3 156 72,754 2,116 74,8702016 152 4 155 72,964 2,564 75,5272017 149 3 152 71,715 2,468 74,1832018 154 3 157 74,886 2,295 77,1812019E 159 3 163 78,499 2,211 80,709

Forecast2020 168 3 172 83,110 2,341 85,4502025 185 4 189 93,361 2,629 95,9902030 205 4 209 105,564 2,973 108,537

2035 227 5 231 118,971 3,351 122,321

2040 249 5 254 133,046 3,747 136,793

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 -0.2% 2.1% -0.1% 0.5% 5.7% 0.6%

2019-20 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%

2020-30 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

2020-40 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
109

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 98,461 75,030 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,318 76,377 76.12015 90,681 72,754 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 93,500 74,870 80.12016 91,158 72,964 80.0 3,519 2,564 72.8 94,677 75,527 79.82017 90,938 71,715 78.9 3,380 2,468 73.0 94,317 74,183 78.72018 93,924 74,886 79.7 3,023 2,295 75.9 96,947 77,181 79.62019E 98,259 78,499 79.9 2,933 2,211 75.4 101,192 80,709 79.8

Forecast2020 103,793 83,110 80.1 3,098 2,341 75.5 106,891 85,450 79.92025 115,736 93,361 80.7 3,455 2,629 76.1 119,191 95,990 80.52030 130,373 105,564 81.0 3,892 2,973 76.4 134,265 108,537 80.82035 146,604 118,971 81.2 4,376 3,351 76.6 150,980 122,321 81.02040 163,703 133,046 81.3 4,887 3,747 76.7 168,590 136,793 81.1Avg Annual Growth2010-19 0.0% 0.5% 5.2% 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%2019-20 5.6% 5.9% 5.6% 5.9% 0.2% 5.6% 5.9%2020-30 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 2.4%2020-40 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 2.4%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
110

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

AS OF JANUARY 1

LESS THAN 

9 SEATS

10 TO 19 

SEATS

20 TO 30 

SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,144

2016 390 55 13 59 0 59 40 1,637 1,677 557 1,637 2,1942017 367 65 19 26 0 26 65 1,644 1,709 542 1,644 2,1862018 360 77 20 11 3 14 54 1,795 1,849 522 1,798 2,3202019E 374 72 19 11 0 11 39 1,846 1,885 515 1,846 2,361

Forecast2020 347 67 18 10 0 10 44 1,876 1,920 486 1,876 2,3622025 269 52 14 8 0 8 59 1,915 1,974 402 1,915 2,3172030 194 37 10 6 0 6 67 1,848 1,915 314 1,848 2,1622035 116 22 6 3 0 3 74 2,001 2,075 221 2,001 2,2222040 34 6 2 1 0 1 85 2,192 2,277 128 2,192 2,320

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 -1.8% -2.7% -15.0% -24.9% N/A -26.3% -9.8% 0.7% 0.3% -5.5% 0.6% -1.1%2019-20 -7.3% -6.9% N/A -9.1% N/A -9.1% 12.8% 1.6% 1.9% -5.7% 1.6% 0.0%

2020-30 -5.7% -5.8% N/A -5.0% N/A -5.0% 4.3% -0.2% 0.0% -4.3% -0.2% -0.9%

2020-40 -11.0% -11.4% N/A -10.9% N/A -10.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.9% -6.5% 0.8% -0.1%
111

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,3722016 129,652 12,986 142,638 9,779 13,751 23,530 3,344 7,233 10,577 27,585 2,478 4,986 211,794 145,982 30,7632017 129,833 13,083 142,916 9,949 14,217 24,166 3,270 7,241 10,511 26,921 2,551 4,692 211,757 146,186 31,4072018 130,179 12,861 143,040 9,925 14,596 24,521 3,082 6,907 9,989 27,531 2,554 4,114 211,749 146,122 31,4282019E 129,535 12,800 142,335 9,965 15,035 25,000 3,130 7,035 10,165 27,725 2,700 4,410 212,335 145,465 32,035

Forecast2020 128,495 12,750 141,245 9,995 15,495 25,490 3,175 7,165 10,340 27,970 2,845 4,490 212,380 144,420 32,6552025 122,245 12,485 134,730 10,230 17,760 27,990 3,405 7,820 11,225 29,365 3,545 4,545 211,400 138,135 35,8102030 115,710 12,195 127,905 10,795 19,970 30,765 3,665 8,540 12,205 30,805 4,185 4,575 210,440 131,570 39,3052035 109,600 11,900 121,500 11,530 22,035 33,565 3,940 9,305 13,245 32,245 4,810 4,595 209,960 125,440 42,8702040 104,335 11,635 115,970 12,595 24,000 36,595 4,215 10,080 14,295 33,475 5,430 4,615 210,380 120,185 46,675

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 -0.8% -2.4% -1.0% 0.7% 3.0% 2.0% -1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% -9.3% -2.8% -0.6% -1.0% 1.8%2019-20 -0.8% -0.4% -0.8% 0.3% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 5.4% 1.8% 0.0% -0.7% 1.9%2020-30 -1.0% -0.4% -1.0% 0.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 3.9% 0.2% -0.1% -0.9% 1.9%2020-40 -1.0% -0.5% -1.0% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% -0.9% 1.8%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
112

 

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,8712016 11,865 1,683 13,548 2,708 3,847 6,554 780 2,348 3,128 1,224 187 193 24,834 14,328 8,9022017 12,047 1,536 13,583 2,625 4,065 6,690 782 2,538 3,320 1,241 209 168 25,212 14,366 9,2282018 12,092 1,694 13,785 2,736 4,592 7,328 601 2,322 2,922 1,153 187 131 25,506 14,386 9,6502019E 12,030 1,670 13,700 2,774 4,810 7,584 621 2,394 3,015 1,195 209 150 25,853 14,321 9,978

Forecast2020 11,846 1,651 13,497 2,807 5,019 7,827 641 2,457 3,098 1,242 223 153 26,039 14,138 10,2842025 10,881 1,598 12,479 2,956 5,945 8,901 738 2,756 3,494 1,363 292 156 26,684 13,218 11,6572030 10,209 1,567 11,776 3,129 6,824 9,953 831 3,058 3,889 1,480 357 157 27,612 12,608 13,0112035 9,770 1,550 11,321 3,344 7,592 10,936 923 3,362 4,285 1,598 424 159 28,723 12,244 14,2982040 9,626 1,551 11,177 3,652 8,331 11,983 1,012 3,670 4,682 1,707 496 160 30,205 12,189 15,652

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 -0.1% -0.9% -0.2% 2.0% 4.0% 3.2% -2.7% -1.0% -1.3% -0.3% -4.3% -2.1% 0.5% -0.3% 2.1%2019-20 -1.5% -1.1% -1.5% 1.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 3.9% 6.5% 2.1% 0.7% -1.3% 3.1%2020-30 -1.5% -0.5% -1.4% 1.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 4.8% 0.3% 0.6% -1.1% 2.4%2020-40 -1.0% -0.3% -0.9% 1.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.6% 4.1% 0.2% 0.7% -0.7% 2.1%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
113

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

AS OF DEC. 31

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT

ROTORCRAFT 

ONLY

GLIDER 

ONLY

TOTAL LESS 

STUDENT 

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT 

RATED 

PILOTS1

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,0012015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,329

2016 175 5,889 162,313 96,081 157,894 15,518 17,991 455,861 302,5722017 153 6,097 162,455 98,161 159,825 15,355 18,139 460,185 306,6522018 144 6,246 163,695 99,880 162,145 15,033 18,370 465,513 311,0172019 127 6,467 161,105 100,863 164,947 14,248 19,143 466,900 314,168

Forecast

2020 125 6,740 161,700 100,950 166,900 14,100 19,350 469,865 316,3002025 110 8,110 157,900 100,800 171,100 14,500 20,050 472,570 322,7002030 90 9,405 150,700 100,100 176,900 15,700 20,300 473,195 329,2002035 70 10,615 144,500 99,300 183,400 17,000 20,450 475,335 335,3002040 50 11,680 140,600 98,600 190,100 18,300 20,600 479,930 341,200

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 -5.5% 6.5% -2.5% -2.2% 1.7% -0.8% -1.2% -0.9% -0.1%2019-20 -1.6% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% -1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7%2020-30 -3.2% 3.4% -0.7% -0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%2020-40 -4.5% 2.8% -0.7% -0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

*

Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot 

 numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. Since there is no sufficient data yet to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
114

 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE

EXPERIMENTAL** 

/ OTHER

LIGHT 

SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,5782016 137 42 207 1,117 10 113 17 1 206 1,437 1,6432017 138 41 198 1,204 10 139 16 1 206 1,541 1,7472018 152 50 234 1,455 9 132 20 1 232 1,820 2,0522019E 152 49 236 1,509 9 135 21 1 231 1,879 2,111

Forecast2020 149 48 239 1,558 9 137 22 1 230 1,934 2,164

2025 137 46 248 1,755 11 149 24 2 218 2,152 2,3702030 127 44 259 1,936 12 160 26 2 211 2,354 2,5652035 119 44 270 2,079 13 171 27 2 206 2,519 2,7252040 115 44 287 2,225 14 177 29 3 205 2,689 2,894

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.5% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% -2.1% 0.9% -0.3% -2.6% 0.5% 3.0% 2.7%2019-20 -1.5% -1.5% 1.2% 3.3% 3.2% 1.6% 4.2% 6.7% -0.8% 2.9% 2.5%2020-30 -1.6% -0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 4.4% -0.9% 2.0% 1.7%2020-40 -1.3% -0.5% 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 3.7% -0.6% 1.7% 1.5%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
115

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 2442015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,579 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,724 264 2522016 14,417 7,580 13,905 11,633 25,538 1,317 1,145 2,462 49,997 264 2522017 15,047 7,180 13,839 11,732 25,571 1,326 1,200 2,526 50,325 264 2532018 15,686 7,126 14,130 12,354 26,485 1,319 1,155 2,474 51,770 264 2542019E 16,192 7,234 14,245 13,109 27,354 1,349 1,134 2,483 53,264 264 256

Forecast2020 16,869 7,423 14,412 13,600 28,013 1,350 1,136 2,486 54,790 264 2562025 19,398 5,557 14,594 13,824 28,418 1,350 1,136 2,486 55,858 264 2562030 21,389 5,840 14,780 14,055 28,835 1,350 1,136 2,486 58,550 264 2562035 23,638 6,143 14,970 14,293 29,264 1,350 1,136 2,486 61,531 264 2562040 25,995 6,462 15,166 14,539 29,705 1,350 1,136 2,486 64,648 264 256

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 2.8% -2.9% -0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% -1.5% -0.5% 0.4%2019-20 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9%2020-30 2.4% -2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%2020-40 2.2% -0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
116

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY OVERFLIGHT TOTAL

Historical2010 12,576 8,667 10,839 2,054 4,851 38,9872015 13,611 7,095 10,399 1,966 4,100 37,171

2016 14,292 6,893 10,289 1,979 4,260 37,7132017 14,909 6,513 10,490 1,928 4,244 38,0852018 15,519 6,495 10,805 1,954 4,115 38,8882019E 16,014 6,600 10,960 1,946 3,706 39,227

Forecast2020 16,680 6,828 11,055 1,947 3,821 40,3312025 19,183 4,658 11,179 1,947 3,869 40,8352030 21,159 4,908 11,306 1,947 4,114 43,4342035 23,391 5,177 11,436 1,947 4,389 46,3392040 25,728 5,460 11,568 1,946 4,676 49,379

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 2.7% -3.0% 0.1% -0.6% -2.9% 0.1%2019-20 4.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0% 3.1% 2.8%2020-30 2.4% -3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%2020-40 2.2% -1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
117

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR COMMERCIAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical2010 30,965 6,550 2,982 40,4982015 33,116 7,007 1,795 41,9182016 34,104 7,301 1,826 43,2312017 34,665 7,428 1,765 43,8582018 35,729 7,406 1,735 44,8702019E 35,781 6,309 1,645 43,734

Forecast2020 37,059 6,298 1,525 44,8822025 38,489 6,450 1,525 46,4642030 42,340 6,610 1,525 50,4752035 46,687 6,778 1,525 54,9902040 51,236 6,955 1,525 59,716

Avg Annual Growth2010-19 1.6% -0.4% -6.4% 0.9%2019-20 3.6% -0.2% -7.3% 2.6%2020-30 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 1.2%

2020-40 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity