FAA AEROSP

Fiscal Years 2022

ACE FORE

-2042

CAST
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2022–2042).................................................................................................. 1

Review of 2021 ............................................................................................................................. 5

Glossary of Acronyms................................................................................................................... 7

Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... 9

FAA Aerospace Forecasts..........................................................................................................10

Economic Environment ...........................................................................................................11

U.S. Airlines.............................................................................................................................13

Domestic Market..................................................................................................................13

International Market.............................................................................................................18

System................................................................................................................................. 24

Cargo...................................................................................................................................25

General Aviation......................................................................................................................27

FAA Operations.......................................................................................................................33

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet................................................................................................36

Commercial Space ..................................................................................................................38

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA.....................................................................39

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast ................................................................41

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy ..................................................................43

Unmanned Aircraft System .....................................................................................................45

Unmanned Aircraft Systems or Drones ...............................................................................45

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration.....................................................45

The Recreational UAS Safety Test (TRUST) ......................................................................56

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs. 

Effective/Active Fleet ...........................................................................................................56

Status of Survey ..................................................................................................................68

Remote Pilot Forecast .........................................................................................................70

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS .....................................................................................73

IPP to BEYOND and PSP....................................................................................................75

Large UAS ...........................................................................................................................79

Advanced Air Mobility ..........................................................................................................83

Forecast Uncertainties ............................................................................................................90

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios..............................................................................95

Scenario Assumptions.........................................................................................................95

Alternative Forecasts...............................................................................................................99

Enplanements......................................................................................................................99

Revenue Passenger Miles................................................................................................. 100
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

Available Seat Miles ..........................................................................................................100

Load Factor........................................................................................................................101

Yield...................................................................................................................................102

Appendix B: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................107
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

1 

Forecast Highlights (2022–2042)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing war in 2022 occurred after this forecast 

was prepared and therefore it does not reflect impacts from those events. However, 

those impacts are already being felt and may 

worsen significantly depending on the extent, 

severity and duration of the war. Already, 

flights that normally traverse Russian and 

Ukrainian airspace are rerouting, resulting in 

longer flight times and higher fuel and crew 

costs. Next, fuel prices spiked as some 

countries halted imports of oil from Russia, a 

major global supplier. Higher energy costs 

for American consumers may combine with 

higher food costs as other exports such as 

for wheat and fertilizer from the region are 

also curtailed. Higher fuel costs can be 

passed on to consumers in the form of higher 

ticket prices, thus directly restraining air 

travel demand, but higher prices for both 

food and fuel also stretch consumer wallets, 

leaving less for discretionary travel. Finally, 

depending on the progression of the war, 

consumer confidence may weaken, increasing caution and financial conservatism.

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility 

that was associated with these cycles was 

thought by many to be a structural feature of 

an industry that was capital intensive but 

cash poor. However, the great recession of 

2007-09 marked a fundamental change in 

the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. 

Since the end of the recession in 2009, U.S. 

airlines revamped their business models to 

minimize losses by lowering operating costs, 

eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated 

new services that customers were willing to 

purchase and started charging separately for 

services that were historically bundled in the 

price of a ticket. The industry experienced 

an unprecedented period of consolidation 

with three major mergers in five years. The

results of these efforts were impressive: 

2019 marked the eleventh consecutive year 

of profitability for the U.S. airline industry. 

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 

2020, however, brought a rapid and cataclysmic end to those boom years. Airline activity 

and profitability tumbled almost overnight 

and without the financial and competitive 

strength built up during the boom, airlines 

would have faced even greater challenges. 

As it was, they were able to slash capacity 

and costs, and then, relying on their balance 

sheets, credit ratings and value inherent in 

their brands, to raise capital through borrowing and restructuring fleets allowing them to 

withstand the period of losses. Although several small regional carriers ceased operations in 2020, no mainline carriers did. Cargo 

activity was one of few bright spots as it 

surged, boosted by consumers purchasing 

goods to enhance time spent at home as necessitated by the pandemic, and by surface 

transportation disruptions caused by worker 

shortages due to COVID-19 illnesses.

By the middle of 2021, conditions and the 

outlook had brightened considerably. With 

the arrival of spring, the introduction of vaccines, and the lifting of some local restrictions, leisure travel began rebounding. 

Favored destinations remained concentrated 

in outdoor recreation spots, whether beach 

or mountain, and some recorded traffic levels 

higher than in 2019. The emergence of the 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

2 

COVID-19 variants in the second half of the 

year paused the recovery but generally didn't 

reverse it. Two new low-cost carriers were 

formed and one regional carrier that ceased 

operations in 2020 was reborn. By the third 

quarter, industry profitability was nearing the 

breakeven point.

The business modifications necessitated by 

the downturn will shape the industry for years 

to come, long after the recovery is complete. 

Primarily, airlines will be smaller having retired aircraft and encouraged voluntary employee separations. Fleets, however, become younger and more fuel-efficient as retirements targeted the oldest and the least 

efficient aircraft. As airlines carry high levels 

of debt, capital spending and investment will 

be restrained which in turn holds back future 

growth. And even the unbundling of services 

took a small step backwards as carriers eliminated change fees for all but Basic Economy 

tickets.

In the medium-term, airlines will be focused 

on trying to foretell the recovery in demand 

and position themselves to meet it. To date, 

that demand recovery has been extremely 

uneven across markets and population segments, driven by COVID-19 case counts, 

vaccinations, governmental restrictions and 

the degree of pent-up demand experienced 

by consumers and businesses. While domestic leisure traffic has led the recovery, domestic business travel is expected to gain 

momentum in 2022. International activity 

generally lags domestic as individual country 

experience with the pandemic is varying and 

shifting so widely. 

Long-term, the strengths and capabilities developed over the past decade will become 

evident again. There is confidence that U.S. 

airlines have finally transformed from a capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to an industry that can generate solid returns on capital and sustained profits. 

Fundamentally, over the long-term, aviation 

demand is driven by economic activity, and a 

growing U.S. and world economy provides 

the basis for aviation to grow. The 2022 FAA 

forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 4.7 percent per year. This average, 

however, includes double-digit growth years

in 2022 and 2023, as activity climbs out from 

a very low base. Following the recovery period, trend rates resume with average growth

through the end of the forecast of 2.6 percent. Domestic passengers are forecast to 

return, on an annual basis, to 2019 levels in 

2023. Oil prices averaged $55 per barrel 

over the five years ending in 2021 but are 

forecast to rise to $75 per barrel in 2022 

(again, as forecast prior to the war in 

Ukraine) before rising steadily to $87 by the 

end of the forecast period.

Just as U.S. economic activity drives domestic demand for air transport, foreign economic activity affects international travel demand. And as virtually all countries took actions to contain COVID-19, those same actions resulted in economic patterns that are 

similar to those in the U.S. with sharp declines in 2020 followed by strong rebounds 

that began in 2021. The variation of economic performance across countries depends on their relative strength as the pandemic began but is also dependent on the 

severity of their experience with COVID-19 

as well as the stringency of their responses. 

Europe saw sharp economic declines in 

2020, consistent with its relatively high level 

of infections and numerous lockdowns that 

overwhelmed a tepid level of baseline economic growth. Many Asian countries, on the 

other hand, saw only mild downturns as they 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

3 

took swift and strong actions to control the 

virus early in the pandemic but also began 

the year with relatively strong economic 

growth. For most countries, economic 

growth rates settle back to their long-run 

trends in about 2023.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 5.7 percent a year between 2022 and 2042. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 4.8 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 8.8

percent a year, largely due to the steep declines in 2020 and 2021 that brought RPM to 

just 31 percent of 2019's level – about half 

that of domestic RPM. Thus, these figures 

are boosted by several years of high growth 

rates during the recovery after which the annual rates return to more moderate long-term 

trends. The strong growth rates return system RPM, on an annual basis, to 2019 levels 

in 2024, with domestic RPM returning a year 

earlier and international RPM also recovering in 2024. System capacity as measured 

by available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to 

grow somewhat slower than RPM during the 

recovery period as airlines seek to restore 

load factors but, subsequently, ASM grow in 

line with the increases in demand. 

The FAA expects U.S. carrier profitability to 

remain under pressure for several years due 

to lower demand and competitive fare pressures. As carriers return to levels of capacity 

consistent with their fixed costs, shed excess 

debt, and yields stabilize, consistent profitability should return. Over the long term, we 

see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand 

for air travel and airfares growing more 

slowly than overall inflation, reflecting growing U.S. and global economies. 

The general aviation (GA) sector was less affected by the COVID-19 crisis than the airlines. Private aviation continues to attract 

those who can afford while the pandemic 

continues. At the lower end of the industry, 

new comers to private flying included student, private and commercial pilots, joining

the existing GA pilot population. The longterm outlook for general aviation thus is 

promising, as growth at the higher-end offsets continuing retirements at the traditional 

low end, mostly piston-powered part of the 

sector. The active GA fleet is forecast to increase by just 0.1 percent between 2022 and 

2042, after recording a slight increase of 0.1

percent in 2021 from the year before, and is 

essentially unchanged from its 2019 level.

The turbine aircraft fleet, including rotorcraft, 

did not experience a decline between 2019 

and 2020, and is estimated to have increased slightly between 2020 and 2021; 

while the total of piston fleet (single and 

multi-engine pistons, light-sport aircraft, and 

piston rotorcraft) declined by 3.8 percent between 2019 and 2020 and is estimated to 

have fallen by 0.6 percent in 2021 from the 

previous year. While steady growth in both 

GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft 

fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed 

wing piston aircraft will continue to shrink 

over the forecast period, just to be offset by 

the growing turbine fleet. Despite the marginal growth of the active GA fleet between 

2020 and 2042, the number of GA hours 

flown is projected to increase by 31.4 percent

from 2020 to 2042 (an average of 1.2 percent 

per year), as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and 

experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours. When the period of 2022 to 2042 is compared, the total 

hours flown by the GA aircraft is forecast to 

increase by an average of 1.0 percent per 

year, after declining by 12.0 percent between 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

4 

2019 and 2020, and recovering partially, with 

a growth of 4.0 percent in 2021 from the previous year. 

With the expected robust air travel demand 

growth between 2022 and 2026 due to the 

U.S. economy recovering from the impact of 

COVID, we expect increased activity growth 

that has the potential to increase controller 

workload. Operations at FAA and contract 

towers are forecast to grow 1.5 percent a 

year over the forecast period (FY2022-42) 

with commercial activity growing at approximately five times the rate of non-commercial

(general aviation and military) activity. The 

recovery in U.S. airline activity from the 

COVID downturn is the primary driver. The 

U.S. commercial aviation sector has been hit 

by the pandemic much harder than the noncommercial sector. The pent-up demand is 

expected to drive the commercial operations 

back to the pre-COVID level by 2023, hence 

leading to the stronger growth in the commercial sector. In particular, large and medium hubs will see much faster increases 

than small and non-hub airports, largely due 

to the commercial nature of their operations.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

5 

Review of 2021

Although conditions in 2021 remained bleak, 

there was definite improvement from the previous year as the turmoil and uncertainty 

from COVID-19 began to diminish. Businesses began to reopen, employment 

growth stabilized, and consumer spending 

rebounded, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus. Air passenger travel picked 

up, air cargo surged, and tower operations 

rose for both the air carrier and general aviation segments. UAS activity grew solidly and 

commercial space launches surged in 2021, 

both of which had expanded in 2020.

U.S. commercial aviation began the year on 

the back foot but saw solid movement along 

the path of recovery as the year progressed, 

while COVID-19 remained the limiting factor. 

TSA checkpoint throughput had come off the 

bottom by the end of the previous year but 

only improved to about 40 percent of 2019's 

level at the start of 2021. With the rollout of 

vaccinations in the spring, however, throughput rose steadily to about 80 percent of 

2019's level by mid-summer. Then, the 

emergence of COVID-19 variants (Delta in 

late summer and Omicron in the final weeks 

of the year) hampered further recovery and 

throughput ended the year about where it 

was in the summer. The main source of 

strength throughout the year was from leisure travelers, both to domestic and shorthaul international destinations, primarily in 

the Latin region. In the business segment, 

activity picked up although not to the same 

extent as in the leisure segment as many employees remained on work-from-home status 

and meetings, conferences and trainings 

were either conducted virtually or forgone.

Airlines responded aggressively to these 

shifts in demand, seeking to match capacity 

with changes in timing, markets and segments. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), airline employment

rose in ten months of the year to average an 

increase of 3,000 jobs per month. At year 

end, employment was 40,000 higher than in 

2020 even though it remained 19,000 lower 

than in 2019. Airlines increased staffing to 

enable them to offer more flights to more, 

and generally smaller, destinations as leisure 

travelers were eager to escape pandemic restrictions. Airlines assisted by adding capacity to outdoor locales, particularly to beaches 

in the south and mountains in the west. International destinations in the Latin region 

also saw especially heavy activity with available seat miles (ASM) in the fourth quarter 

exceeding those in 2019.

As reflected by the TSA throughput figures, 

demand for air travel in 2021 began to recover. In FY2021, system traffic as measured by revenue passenger miles (RPMs) 

grew 3.3 percent from the previous year

while system enplanements rose 9.0 percent. Domestic RPMs were 13.1 percent

higher while enplanements were up 9.7 percent. International RPMs, however, fell 28.8

percent although enplanements rose by 1.4

percent, a consequence of busy short-haul 

Latin markets. The system-wide load factor 

was 68.5 percent, down a percentage point

from the FY2020 level. 

System nominal yields fell again in 2021. In 

domestic markets, all carriers, whether they 

normally targeted the leisure segment or not, 

focused on that price-sensitive segment, 

adding capacity and lowering fares to attract 

revenue. The result was a 12.9 percent drop 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

6 

in nominal yields. International yield, however, declined just 4.5 percent as demand 

was constrained more by travel restrictions 

than by price. 

With the pickup in activity during the year, financial results improved as well. Data for 

FY2021 shows that the reporting passenger 

carriers1 had a combined operating loss of 

$26.1 billion compared to an average profit 

over the five years ending in FY2019 of $22.1

billion. However, this obscures improvement 

over the course of the year that shows quarterly losses gradually declining and ending 

the fiscal year with a loss of under $200 million – far better than the $10 billion average 

loss of the previous six quarters. 

The general aviation industry partially recovered from its decline in 2020 with an increase 

of 7.4 percent in deliveries of U.S. manufactured aircraft in 2021, with pistons slightly up

by 0.5 percent (in fact, fixed-wing single engine piston aircraft deliveries were up by 2.3 

percent) and turbines up by 16.6 percent. 

Global billings increased by 7.7 percent to 

$21.6 billion (still down by 8.2 percent from 

its 2019 level (Statistics for the U.S. billings

were not available as of the publication date 

of this report). 

Total operations in 2021 at FAA and contract 

towers increased by 7.4 percent compared to 

2020 (down by 10.5 percent from 2019). Air 

carrier activity increased by 4.1 percent, 

while air taxi operations were up 7.1 percent. 

General aviation activity increased by 9.1 

percent and military activity was up by 6.8 

percent. Activity at large and medium hubs 

rose by 2.3 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively, while small and non-hub airport activity rose by 8.8 percent in 2021 compared to 

the prior year.

 

1 Includes network carriers (Alaska Airlines, 

American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United 

Air Lines) and low cost carriers (Allegiant Air, 

Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest 

Airlines, Spirit Air Lines, and Sun Country Airlines).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

7 

Glossary of Acronyms

Acronym Term .

ANG FAA Office of NextGen

ARP FAA Office of Airports

ASMs Available Seat Miles

AST FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

ATO FAA Air Traffic Organization

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CAPS COA Application Processing System

CBP Customs and Border Patrol

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

COAs Certification of Authorizations

CORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation

CRS Commercial Resupply Services

CY Calendar Year

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD Department of Defense

DoE Department of Energy

DoI Department of Interior

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GC Grand Challenge

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

ISS International Space Station

LAANC Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability

LCC Low Cost Carriers

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

lUAS Large Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

NAS National Airspace System

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act 

NOTAM Notices to Airmen

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

PDARS Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

8 

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

TSA Transportation Security Administration

UAM Urban Air Mobility

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

UASFM UAS facility maps

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

9 

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs. 

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388

Commercial Air Carriers Jonathan Corning (202) 267-8388 

General Aviation H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 

FAA Workload Measures Chia-Mei Liu (202) 267-3602

Commercial Fleet Akira Kondo (202) 267-3336 

Commercial Space LaVada Strickland (202) 267-3855

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

Gavin Ekins (202) 267-4735

APO Websites

• Forecasts and 

Statistical publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/ 

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name. Last name@FAA.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

10

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2022-2042
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

11

Economic Environment

In 2021, global real GDP expanded sharply 

as countries began to recover from the worst 

of the economic effects of COVID-19. After 

falling 3.5 percent in 2020, GDP surged by 

5.6 percent in 2021, a rate not seen since the 

early 1970s. Despite this high rate of growth, 

the level of GDP is not expected to return to 

its pre-pandemic path until about the middle 

of the decade. The recovery was supported 

by widespread fiscal stimulus, the availability 

of COVID-19 vaccines and the revival of consumer spending that had been curtailed in 

2020. Moving into 2022 and 2023, countries 

are expected to shift their foci to dealing with 

COVID-19 as an endemic disease, to fiscal 

restraint, to rising interest rates and to reducing inflation, all of which contribute to moderating GDP growth in the coming years. 

In the U.S., real GDP growth slows from 5.5 

percent in 2021 to 4.3 percent in 2022 and 

2.9 percent in 2023 as the effects of COVID19 relief measures wear off, consumer 

spending normalizes and interest rates rise. 

Compared to the U.S., real GDP growth in 

the Eurozone will be somewhat slower in the 

near- and medium-term at 3.7 percent in 

2022 and 2.2 percent in 2023. Aggressive 

deficit reduction efforts, high energy costs 

and supply chain disruptions all dampen 

growth in the near-term followed by continued slowing toward the area's trend rate. In 

Japan, the recovery was somewhat delayed 

by stringent COVID-19 control measures and 

increased cases in the second half of 2021, 

resulting in real GDP growth rates that rise in 

2022 before receding in 2023. Some of the 

near-term strength will be due to increased 

exports, particularly autos, as supply chain 

disruptions fade. Although China's growth 

remained positive in 2020 and jumped to 8.1 

percent in 2021, the country's zero-COVID 

policy tamps down growth in 2022 and 2023 

to 5.5 percent, or slightly below its trend rate. 

Additionally, exports slow as global consumer spending shifts out of goods and back 

to services. In efforts to support growth, the 

government is easing monetary policy and 

boosting infrastructure investment. In other 

large emerging markets, Brazil provided 

large fiscal stimulus causing growth to surge 

in 2021 but then fall back sharply in 2022 as 

that stimulus was withdrawn. Further constraining growth, Brazil's central bank hiked 

interest rates sharply in an effort to rein in the 

country's high inflation. Russia, like Brazil, 

began raising interest rates in 2021 to counter inflation, thus restraining GDP growth. 

On the other hand, the energy sector, consumer spending and investment activity are 

expected to counterbalance that restraint.. 

While India's pandemic stimulus spending 

has been relatively modest, in the mediumterm its growth will be supported by favorable 

demographics including strong consumer 

spending from growing middle-income 

households.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

12

8.1 7.9

6.7

5.6 5.5 5.1 5.0

4.4

2.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Annual Percent Change

World Economic Growth in 2021

China India U.K. World U.S. Eurozone Brazil Russia Japan

Source: IHS Markit

IHS Markit forecasts world real GDP to grow 

at 2.8 percent a year between 2022 and 

2042. Emerging markets, at 3.9 percent a 

year, are forecast to grow above the global 

average but at lower rates than in the early 

2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India 

and China, is projected to have the fastest 

growth followed by Africa and Middle East, 

Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Growth 

in the more mature economies (1.8 percent 

a year) will be lower than the global trend 

with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by 

Europe. Growth in Japan is forecast to be 

very slow at 0.8 percent a year reflecting 

deep structural issues associated with a 

shrinking and aging population.

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

M.E. & N. Africa

Asia ex. China & Japan

China

Asia and Middle East/N. Africa Lead Global Economic Growth

Source: IHS Markit, Dec 2021 World Forecast

(annual GDP percent growth 2022-2042)

0.8

1.4

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

4.1

4.2
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

13

Accompanied by the rebound in global economic activity was increased demand for oil 

in 2021, pushing prices up. After dropping 

from about $60 per barrel to $43 in 2020, the 

price returned to $60 and is projected to continue up to $75 in 2022. Again, however, this 

forecast does not include the impacts of the 

Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will likely 

push prices even higher in 2022 and beyond. 

Over the long-run, IHS Markit expects the 

price of oil to increase due to growing global 

demand and higher costs of extraction. IHS 

Markit forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition 

cost of crude to rise to $87 per barrel at the 

end of the forecast horizon.

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

$ Per Barrel of Oil

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: IHS Markit

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers2 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is 

confined to the border markets in Canada, 

Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

Over the coming years, the commercial air 

carrier industry will be focused on recovering 

from the devastating consequences of the 

COVID-19 pandemic. First, carriers will work 

 

2 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

to identify and assess demand as it returns 

fitfully from the lows reached in 2020. Next, 

and as load factors rise, the focus will shift to 

adding capacity back into networks in a cautious and deliberate manner. With demand 

beginning to approach 2019 levels, balance 

sheets strengthen allowing carriers to adopt 

the more customary longer-term strategies.

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or fewer seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

14

The unpredictable demand environment carriers faced in the previous two years will improve in 2022. Driving the predictability will 

be the continued lifting of COVID-19 precautions, the working off of pent-up demand, and 

employees returning to offices as they become more comfortable with travelling again 

and employers find ways to satisfy duty-ofcare requirements. Increasingly predictable 

activity allows carriers to return capacity to 

typical markets, and reduce reliance on 

purely recreational destinations. Load factors and utilization rates will rise and so will 

fares. 

In the final recovery phase, activity approaches 2019 levels and industry conditions 

begin to normalize. Leisure travel has largely 

returned to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is steadily catching up. Carriers 

remain somewhat constrained by debt incurred to survive the crisis and forgo some 

capital investments in favor of strengthening 

their balance sheets.

Throughout the recovery from the pandemic, 

several trends emerged that subsequently 

will, to greater or lesser extent, be reversed. 

Low-cost carriers targeting leisure travelers 

benefitted from relative strength in this segment. The sharp curtailment of business 

travel, on the other hand, impacted legacy 

carriers and those serving key business markets. And all carriers received a boost from 

low fuel prices that were due in part to reduced energy demand worldwide. 

Regional carriers suffered very similar consequences of COVID-19 as did the mainline 

group. In 2021, regionals provided 11.6 percent of domestic capacity, up just slightly 

from 11.1 percent in 2019. In terms of traffic, 

regionals saw marginally better performance 

than their mainline counterparts, claiming 

11.3 percent of RPM in 2021 compared to 

10.4 percent in 2019. The deviations in 2020 

are expected to be temporary as travel patterns and airline operations begin their recovery to more normal conditions. 

The regional market continues to face pressure as the regionals compete for even fewer 

contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; this implies paltry growth in enplanements and yields.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

15

654

368 402 522

702 788 886 1,005 1,060

159

94 105

123

171

192

216

244

258

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional

14.1 13.5

11.7

13.4

14.7

16.0

17.4

18.9 19.6

11.6 11.1

9.7

10.9

12.1

13.2

14.3

15.6 16.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

16

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated 

contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. And as 

mainline carriers cut service to smaller cities 

over the past two years, it was the regional 

partners that were most affected. Furthermore, mainline carriers successfully reduced 

costs by offering voluntary retirements to 

flight crews but as activity picked up they 

drew replacements from the ranks of the regionals, exacerbating their pre-pandemic pilot shortages. As regional carriers recover 

and activity returns to 2019 levels, service to 

smaller cities is expected to return. Regional 

pilot shortages, however, are likely to persist 

through next year due to the time required for 

training and recruitment.

A trend for regionals that was largely unaffected by the pandemic is the longstanding 

increase in the number of seats per aircraft. 

This measure rose by more than 55 percent 

over the decade from 1997 to 2007 and although it slowed more recently to an increase 

of 17 percent in the ten years ending in 2019, 

that same pace generally continued in 2021. 

A consequence of this drive to replace 50 

seat regional jets with more fuel-efficient 70 

seat jets is that capital costs have increased. 

The move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future, however, since their unit 

costs are lower.

Mainline carriers have also been increasing 

the seats per aircraft flown although, unlike 

that for the regionals, the trend had been accelerating. From 1997-2007, mainline seats 

per aircraft expanded just one-half of one 

percent but from 2009-2019, the measure 

grew 10 percent. In 2021, mainline seats per 

aircraft bumped up to almost 13 percent over 

the decade as carriers flew some of their idle 

long-haul international aircraft on domestic 

routes. 

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such as 

checked bags, on-board meals and seat selection, and by adding new services such as 

boarding priority and internet access. After

posting record net profits in 2015, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined subsequently

on rising fuel and labor costs, and flat yields, 

but were supported by ancillary revenues. 

Even in 2020 when profits turned to staggering losses, this remained a meaningful 

source of revenue for carriers.

On the other hand, revenue management 

systems that have grown increasingly sophisticated in recent years became almost 

worthless in 2020. These systems enable 

carriers to price fares optimally for each day 

and time of flight, and to minimize foregone 

revenue. But, because they rely on historical 

data to make price and schedule predictions, 

the unprecedented nature of the collapse in 

2020 meant they could provide little guidance and carriers were forced to assess market conditions without the benefit or precision 

of that quantitative analysis. 

While revenue management systems will regain their important role once travel demand 

returns to more normal rhythms, one source 

of ancillary revenue, change fees, was 

broadly scrapped in 2020. As traveler plans 

were forced to change due to COVID-19-related restrictions, airlines began dropping 

fees for itinerary changes in many ticket classes. As a share of total passenger revenue, 

cancellation fees dropped from about 2 percent in FY2019 and the years prior to under 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

17

1 percent in FY2021. Some airlines have 

stated that the elimination of change fees is 

a permanent move and won't be reversed 

with the end of the pandemic. In contrast, 

baggage fees seem unlikely to be rescinded 

as their share rose from 4.0 percent to 6.7 

percent in FY2021. And in the third quarter 

of 2021, revenue from baggage fees exceeded that in the same quarter of 2019 even 

though total passenger revenue remained 

down nearly a third. 

Other methods of segmenting passengers 

into more discreet cost categories based on 

comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, 

and access to social media and power outlets were unaffected by the pandemic. The 

offering of Basic Economy fares has been 

part of an effort by network carriers to protect 

market share in response to the rapid growth 

low cost carriers (LCC) have achieved in recent years. In 2019, mainline enplanements 

had increased almost 23 percent since 2007 

but low cost carrier enplanements grew by 39 

percent. RPM over the same period show a 

similar pattern with mainline RPMs up almost

27 percent and LCC RPM fully 48 percent 

higher. These longer term trends were interrupted in 2020 with both enplanements and 

RPM dropping across both mainline and 

LCC carriers to about 55 percent of 2019's 

levels. However, by 2021 the strength of 

 

3 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

LCC's became apparent again as their enplanements and RPM had recovered to 

about 70 percent of 2019 levels while mainline traffic edged up to about 60 percent. In 

fact, 2021 saw the inaugural operations of 

three new small LCCs, Aha!, Avelo and 

Breeze, all of which are targeting smaller, underserved cities with point-to-point flights independent of mainline contracts.

The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 interrupted other domestic trends as well. U.S. 

commercial air carriers’3 total number of domestic departures had risen for the second 

year in a row in 2019, and ASM had risen 

each of the previous nine years. But then in 

2020, departures and ASM declined sharply, 

falling 30 percent from the prior year. On the 

demand side, RPM and enplanements, 

which had grown for ten consecutive years, 

saw even steeper declines of 40 percent in 

2020. Because of the faster demand-side 

growth, load factors rose in ten of the eleven 

years leading up to 2020, reaching 85.2 percent, before dropping sharply in that year to 

68.6 percent, as passengers stopped flying 

to a greater extent than carriers could match. 

As leisure travelers returned in 2021, load 

factors began to recover and reached 72.4 

percent.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

18

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor (right axis)

 

International Market

Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment 

for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. In 2015 and 

2016, growth in the domestic market surged, 

outpacing international markets. However, 

in 2017 enplanement growth in international 

markets exceeded that in domestic markets, 

only to be reversed again in 2018 and 2019. 

That relative strength of domestic activity 

compared to international continued during 

the downturn in 2020 and the start of the recovery in 2021. In 2021, domestic enplanements rose to 62 percent of 2019's level after 

being at 57 percent a year earlier, but international enplanements were flat at 47 percent, increasing less than a percentage point 

from 2020. International travel continues to 

be particularly impacted by border closings, 

quarantine requirements and other travel restrictions, as well as the uncertainty of when 

requirements might change. The fall off of 

business travel also contributed to the decline, even as leisure travel supports domestic markets. International travel is expected 

to continue to be constrained over the next 

two years by varying levels of COVID-19 infections and governmental responses across 

countries. Individuals will also be making 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

19

personal assessments of the risks of travel 

and will likely be less comfortable travelling 

internationally than domestically due to uncertainties surrounding border closures and 

other restrictions. 

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

20

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic Market International Market

The early years of the international recovery 

will see some strong growth rates as activity 

levels come off a low base but these will return to more typical rates once levels approach 2019 values expected in 2024. From 

FY2022-2024, average annual growth rates 

for international ASM and enplanements are 

projected at 30 percent while RPM are forecast to grow at an annual rate of 49 percent 

as aggregate trip lengths grow due to increasing Atlantic and Pacific activity. From 

FY2024-2042, annual growth for ASM and 

enplanements are forecast to grow at 3.0 

and 3.4 percent, respectively, while RPM will 

grow at a rate of 3.2 percent. Taking these 

two periods as a whole gives annual growth 

rates from FY 2022-2042 for ASM, RPM and 

enplanements of 6.5, 8.8, and 6.9 percent, 

respectively. 

In the long-run, growth of major global economies will slow from the above-trend rates of 

recent, pre-pandemic years. Several moderating factors are at work, including dampened credit growth, reduced global trade, 

and political stresses. The European and

Japanese economies are generally seeing 

slow but positive growth, in part due to weak 

trade with Asia. In turn, this has been driven 

by trade disputes as well as China's continuing gradual slowdown which has been managed by the government and is unlikely to decline sharply. Overall, global conditions appear set to return to a stable path once the 

pandemic has been brought under control 

but with growth rates that are closer to longterm trends than the higher rates of the recent pre-pandemic years. Rising oil prices, 

however, will create some drag on this otherwise supportive environment for air travel demand.

The past two years have been particularly 

difficult for carriers serving international markets because no amount of marketing, low 

fares or other strategizing could overcome 

the border closures and other restrictions related to COVID-19 that were constraining demand. For countries with few restrictions or 

that have lifted restrictions, activity has already been strong and, in some cases, at or 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

21

above 2019 levels. As other countries lift restrictions this year and next and uncertainties 

surrounding travel diminishes, activity is expected to resume smartly. In 2022, ASM are 

forecast to grow 53 percent. RPM will double 

from its low level in 2021 (just 30 percent of 

2019's level) and enplanements will grow 64 

percent. Load factors fell further in 2021, 

reaching 54 percent, almost 30 percentage 

points below where they were in 2019 because carriers retained some capacity to protect market share. As RPM recovers in 2022, 

load factors also rise sharply, to 70 percent 

and are nearly fully recovered by 2024. 

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements

The impact of COVID-19 on travel by region 

has varied considerably, as will the recovery 

paths. Factors affecting the responses by 

market are similar to those affecting travel as 

a whole: COVID-19 case counts, governmental restrictions, predominant traveler 

segments, and macroeconomic conditions. 

As a result, by 2021, enplanements to Latin 

America had recovered the most followed by 

the Atlantic region and, in a distant third, the 

Pacific region. 

For U.S. carriers, Latin America remains the 

largest international destination with more 

than twice the enplanements of Atlantic, the 

next largest in a typical year, due to its proximity to the U.S., strong trade ties, and popular visitor destinations. In contrast to the 

other two regions that saw declines in 2021, 

Latin enplanements rose by 34.9 percent

while RPMs rose 22.6 percent. Much of the 

strength was fueled by leisure traffic heading

to warm weather destinations and by the relatively low number of COVID-19 cases and 

travel restrictions in some countries. Enplanements and RPMs are forecast to increase 41.6 and 46.3 percent, respectively, 

in 2022, before resuming single-digit growth 

and gradually slowing to a long-term trend 

rate of around 4 percent. Both enplanements and RPM are expected to recover to 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

22

2019 levels in 2023. Over the twenty-year 

period 2022-2042, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average 

rate of 5.8 percent a year while RPMs grow 

6.2 percent a year. 

Switching to the Pacific region, it is the smallest in terms of enplanements despite the 

economic growth and potential of air travel to 

the region's emerging markets. After falling 

in 2020 to 42.1 percent of 2019's level, enplanements fell further in 2021 to just 5.8 percent as many countries enforced stringent 

travel restrictions, especially China, a very 

large market in the region. RPM also collapsed by similar amounts. In 2022, enplanements and RPM are expected to come 

off the bottom and recover to about 20 percent of 2019 levels. Because many countries 

in the Pacific region have had relative success in controlling COVID-19 transmission, 

travel restrictions have been slow to lift, leading to the slow recovery in 2022 and in the 

medium term. Although initial growth is 

strong in percentage terms due to the low 

base, trend growth is comparatively slow. 

Consequently, enplanements take 7 years to 

fully recover to 2019's level and RPM reach 

that milestone in 2025. From FY2022-2025, 

Pacific enplanements and RPM are forecast 

to double each year on average, and in the 

long-term from FY2025-2042, grow at rates 

of 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. 

Although the region is forecast to have the 

strongest economic growth of any region 

over the next 20 years, led by China and India, enplanements and RPMs over the period are restrained in part because U.S. carriers continue to provide a majority of their 

service in the region to Japan as opposed to 

faster growing countries. 

The Atlantic region ranks in the middle between the other two, with pre-pandemic enplanements roughly twice those in the Pacific 

region and half those in the Latin region. After contracting in 2015 and 2016, Atlantic enplanements began rising to reach 7.0 percent growth in 2019. This growth was supported by U.S. demand as well as growth of 

Middle East and African markets, even as the 

European economies slowed in 2019. In 

2020, like the other regions, Atlantic enplanements tumbled by 61.1 percent and

then a further 47.1 percent in 2021 to bottom 

out at 21 percent of 2019's level. Subsequent percentage gains are large, returning 

enplanements to 2019 levels in 2024. The 

historical and forecast path for RPM is quite 

similar and for the medium-term from 

FY2022-2024, RPM grows at an average annual rate of 67 percent while enplanements 

grow at a rate of 71 percent. Although Western Europe is a mature area with moderate 

economic growth, the economically smaller 

Middle East and Africa areas are expanding 

rapidly with GDP growth rates more than 

twice that of Europe. As a result, a larger 

share of the forecast aviation demand in the 

Atlantic region is linked to those two areas, 

particularly in the second half of the forecast 

period. Over the forecast horizon from 2022 

to 2042, enplanements and RPM in the Atlantic region are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 10 percent. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

23

89

17 24 57

94 112 130 150 158

89

33

66

87

99

121

145

175 188

44

9

4

9

40

46

54

62

66

32

7

5

25

35

40

47

54

58

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world fell even more in 2020, and 

recovered less in 2021, than did U.S. carriers 

alone. Foreign carriers, without the relative 

strength of domestic markets for support, 

were forced to reduce capacity more and 

thereby sacrificed passenger traffic. Total 

passengers collapsed by an estimated 73.4

percent to 67 million in 2020 as all regions 

posted losses led by an 80.4 percent reduction in the Atlantic region. In 2021, the Latin

American and Atlantic regions saw sizable 

growth from the previous year, while the Pacific and Canada Transborder regions saw 

further declines, and all regions remained 

well below 2019 levels. 

FAA projects total international passenger 

growth of 79.7 percent in 2022 as global economic growth stabilizes and COVID-19 restrictions abate. The strongest passenger

growth is expected in the Latin region and the 

slowest in the Pacific. Similar to growth rates 

of enplanements on U.S. carriers, total passenger growth rates in the early years of the 

forecast are high, returning passenger numbers to 2019 levels in 2024. Moderate global 

economic growth averaging 2.8 percent a 

year over the next 20 years (2022-2042) is 

the foundation for the forecast growth of international passengers of 7.7 percent a year, 

as levels increase almost five fold from 99 

million in 2021 to 470 million in 2042. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

24

The Atlantic and Latin American regions 

were of comparable size in 2019 but by the 

end of the forecast period the Latin American 

region counts about 20 percent more passengers and their growth paths differ. Atlantic growth is faster early on and slows relative 

to Latin American in later years, consistent 

with GDP forecasts. Over the 20-year forecast period (2022-2042), the Atlantic region 

grows at an average annual rate of 9.4 percent while Latin America grows at a rate of 

5.1 percent. Although European markets in 

the Atlantic region are mature and relatively 

slow growing, other markets such as the Middle East and Africa boost overall growth in 

the region. 

In the Pacific region, passenger levels in 

2021 were just 10 percent of those in 2019 

and combined with stringent COVID-19 

travel restrictions and sluggish Japanese 

GDP growth that offsets some of the strong

economic growth and rising incomes in 

China, India and South Korea, the outcome 

is a relatively slow return to 2019 passenger 

levels in 2028. From 2022 to 2042, passengers between the United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 13.8 percent

a year. 

Like the Atlantic region, Canada transborder

is another mature market but is considerably 

smaller. It is projected to grow at an average 

rate of 12.6 percent over the forecast period, 

slightly faster than the Atlantic region. Total 

passenger counts return to 2019 levels in 

2023, about the same as in the Latin America 

region. 

System

System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity contracted 35.9 percent to 

791 billion ASMs in 2020 while RPMs plummeted 47.4 percent to 549 billion. During the 

same period, system-wide enplanements fell 

44.3 percent to 511 million. Supported by 

domestic and Latin markets, activity began to 

recover in 2021 as ASM, RPM and enplanements expanded by 4.8 percent, 3.3 percent 

and 9.0 percent, respectively. In prior years, 

U.S. carriers had prioritized the domestic 

over the international market in terms of allocating capacity as the U.S. saw stronger economic growth than many regions around the 

world. And in 2020 and 2021, travel restrictions associated with COVID-19 caused 

this split to largely continue as domestic capacity was curtailed less than international: 

down 25.5 percent in 2021 from 2019 for domestic compared to down 51.4 percent for international. However, as U.S. carriers shift 

their focus to recovery, international capacity 

growth will outpace domestic, mainly because the international reductions in 2020

and 2021 were much more severe. Subsequent years through 2042 see carriers continue to expand capacity in international markets faster than domestic as the international 

markets see stronger income growth and the 

corresponding demand for travel. 

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 8.2 percent in 2021 while regional carriers carried 12.1 percent more

passengers – a difference explained by the 

greater reliance of mainline carriers on lagging international markets. 

In the domestic market in 2019, mainline enplanements marked their ninth consecutive 

year of increases, a trend that was abruptly 

halted in 2020 with a decline of 43.7 percent, 

but followed by a 9.1 percent increase in 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

25

2021. Similarly, international mainline passengers had posted a tenth consecutive year 

of growth in 2019, a trend that was broken in 

2020 with a 53.4 percent decline but, in contrast to the domestic side, was followed by a 

small 1.4 percent increase. Domestic mainline enplanement growth is forecast to accelerate in 2022, rising 30.0 percent as the recovery proceeds. Another year of strong 

growth in 2023 returns domestic enplanements to 2019 levels in that year. With the 

recovery complete, domestic enplanements 

resume growth driven by economic fundamentals and average 2.5 percent over the remainder of the forecast. International mainline enplanements follow a similar path with 

strong growth early in the recovery that slows 

as enplanements return to 2019 levels in 

2024. From then through the end of the forecast in 2042, international enplanements are 

expected to grow at an average of 3.5 percent.

Although carriers cut capacity aggressively 

in 2020, the drop in traffic was even greater 

and system load factor fell from 84.5 percent 

in 2019 to 69.5 in 2020 and further to 68.5 in 

2021 – a combined drop that far exceeded 

those following both 9/11 and the Great Recession. Load factor gradually recovers, returning close to its 2019 level in 2025.

Cargo

Air cargo traffic includes both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves 

in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in 

dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative 

shipping modes such as trucks, container 

ships, and rail cars, as well as from other air 

carriers. 

U.S. air carriers flew 51.3 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2021, a large 16.9 percent

increase from the previous year that raised 

RTM 19.7 above 2019's level. Domestic 

cargo RTMs increased 11.7 percent to 19.9

billion in 2021 while international RTMs expanded 20.4 percent to 31.4 billion. In comparison, for the decade ending in 2019, domestic RTM increased at an average rate of 

3.2 percent and international grew at a 3.8

percent rate. The surge in 2020 and 2021

RTM was supported by consumers purchasing goods to enhance time spent at home as 

necessitated by the pandemic, and by surface transportation disruptions caused by 

worker shortages due to COVID-19 illnesses. Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo 

carriers averaged 78.7 percent of the total in 

the years leading up to 2020 but then spiked 

to 88.0 percent of total RTMs in 2020 and 

2021, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo 

carriers increased 12.3 percent in 2020 while 

total RTMs flown by passenger carriers fell 

by 37.8 percent but in 2021, both all-cargo 

and passenger carriers saw increases of 

about 17 percent. Although many passenger 

carriers reconfigured aircraft to accommodate more cargo, the sheer drop in passenger flights in 2020 outweighed that increase, 

resulting in the steep drop of passenger carrier RTM. As passenger flights return, the 

share of cargo on all-cargo carriers will ease, 

dropping from 88 percent in 2021 to about 82 

percent in 2025. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042

26

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic 

spans four regions consisting of Atlantic, 

Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, globalization and trade. 

The forecasts of revenue ton miles rely on 

several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air 

cargo transportation will remain in place. 

Second, most of the shift from air to ground 

transportation has occurred. Finally, longterm cargo activity depends heavily on economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs derive from models 

that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as 

the primary driver of activity. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs depend on growth 

in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs 

between passenger and all-cargo carriers 

based on an analysis of historic trends in 

shares, changes in industry structure, and 

market assumptions. 

After increasing by 16.9 percent in 2021, total RTMs are expected to grow 2.5 percent in 

2022. Because of steady U.S. and world 

economic growth in the long term, FAA projects total RTMs to increase at an average 

annual rate of 3.2 percent over the forecast 

period (from 2022 to 2042). 

Following the surge in 2021, domestic cargo 

RTMs are projected to moderate in subsequent years as the boost from the pandemic 

fades. Between 2022 and 2042, domestic 

cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 2.6 percent. In 2021, 

all-cargo carriers carried 93.4 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is 

forecast to decline modestly to about 92 percent in the medium-term as passenger flights 

return to the system. In the long-term, the 

all-cargo share rises only slightly to 92.7 percent by 2042 based on increases in capacity 

for all-cargo carriers. 

International cargo RTMs 20.4 percent surge

in 2021 dissipates in 2022 as surface transportation snarls are resolved. As with domestic markets, RTM carried by all-cargo 

carriers grew strongly in 2020 while that 

transported by passenger carriers fell even 

more sharply, but by 2021 both types grew 

again. With the post-pandemic return of passenger flights, RTM on passenger aircraft is 

expected to grow rapidly, increasing about 

18 percent per year from 2022 to 2024. Over 

the same period, all-cargo RTM is roughly 

flat as some tonnage is lost to passenger carriers in 2022. Following the period of recovery, growth for both types of carriers returns 

to long-run trend rates. For the forecast period (2022-2042), international cargo RTMs 

are expected to increase an average of 3.6 

percent a year based on projected growth in 

world GDP with the Pacific International region having the fastest RTM growth (4.0 percent), followed by Other (3.5 percent), Atlantic (3.3 percent), and Latin America region

(2.1 percent). 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers was 84.6 percent in 

2021 and is forecast to decline steadily during the recovery period before gradually increasing in line with historical trends and 

ending at 80.3 percent in 2042. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

27

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Since the survey is 

conducted on a calendar year (CY) base and 

the records are collected by CY, the GA forecast is done by CY. Forecasts of new aircraft 

deliveries, which use the data from General 

Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), 

together with assumptions of retirement 

rates, generate growth rates of the fleet by 

aircraft categories, which are applied to the 

GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts 

are carried out for “active aircraft,”4 not total 

aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts 

also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including Transportation Research Board (TRB) 

meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a year 

in January and June. 

The results of the 2020 GA Survey, the latest 

available, were consistent with the results of 

surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. The active 

GA fleet was estimated to be 204,140 aircraft

in 2020 (3.2 percent decline from 2019), as 

increases in fixed wing turbine were more 

than offset by decreases in pistons, rotorcraft, lighter-than-air and light sport aircraft (LSA), and experimental aircraft. Total 

hours flown were estimated to be 22.5 million

in 2020, down 12.0 percent from 2019. Decreases were across the board, with the 

highest absolute decline in fixed wing piston

hours (10.3 percent), and highest percentage decline in lighter than air aircraft (44.6 

percent) and glider activity (28.7 percent), 

followed by rotorcraft hours (19.6 percent).

In 2021, deliveries of the general aviation aircraft manufactured in the U.S. increased to 

1,670, 7.4 percent higher than in CY 2020 

(still 5.7 percent lower than the 2019 level, 

but has been improving). Deliveries of singleengine piston aircraft were up 2.3 percent, 

while the much smaller segment of multi-engine piston deliveries were down by 51.6 percent (summing to a 0.5 percent increase in 

the fixed engine piston deliveries). Business 

jet deliveries increased by 14.7 percent and

turboprop deliveries were up 18.6 percent, 

amounting for a 16.6 percent increase in 

fixed wing turbine shipments. While the 

GAMA statistics for factory net billings were 

not available yet for the U.S. manufactured 

GA aircraft, global billings increased in 2021 

by 7.7 percent to $21.6 billion.

 

4 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

28

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Shipments

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings

Global Shipments Shipments of U.S. Manufactured Aircraft

U.S. Billings ($ Billion) Global Billings ($ Billion)

Source: GAMA

GAMA also reported the rotorcraft deliveries 

increased at a global level in 2021 in both 

piston and turbine segments by 27.5 percent 

and 13.8 percent, respectively. 

Against these current conditions, we expect 

the GA sector, which was not as severely affected by the pandemic as the airlines, to recover sooner to its 2019 levels by aircraft 

type than the other sectors. Then, the longterm outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The 

active general aviation fleet, which showed a 

decline of 3.2 percent between 2019 and 

2020, is projected to increase from its 2021 

level of 204,405 aircraft to 208,905 by 2042, 

as the declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet 

were offset by increases in turbine, rotorcraft, 

experimental, and light sport fleets. The total 

active general aviation fleet grows by a small

increase of 0.1 percent annually. When 

measured from pre-COVID-19 levels in 

2019, the active GA fleet of 210,981 experiences an annual decline of 0.04 percent on

average. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 15,750 aircraft between 

2021 and 2042 to total 46,060 in 2042, an 

average rate of 1.9 percent a year during this 

period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 2.6 

percent a year. When measured from the 

2019 levels, the growth rate for the turbinepowered fleet is 1.8 percent. The growth in 

U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts 

for the growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the 

by 22,055 aircraft between 2021 and 2042, 

an average annual rate of -0.8 percent. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

29

When measured from the 2019 fleet of 

141,396 in 2019, the annual decline averages 1.0 percent. Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, availability of much lower 

cost alternatives for recreational usage, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping 

pace with retirements of the aging fleet are

the drivers of the decline.

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent annually, adding 

about 2,890 new aircraft by 2042, doubling

its 2019 fleet size of 2,675. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2012 2022 2032 2042

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to marginally increase, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

forecast to increase an average of 1.1 percent per year through 2042, from 22.5 million 

in 2020 to 29.6 million, as the newer aircraft 

fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston 

hours are forecast to decrease by 0.6 percent, at a slightly lower rate than that of the 

fleet decline. Countering this trend, hours 

flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft)

are forecast to increase 3.2 percent yearly 

between 2020 and 2042. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, 

with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent between 2021 and 

2042. The large increases in jet hours result 

mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

30

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2012 2022 2032 2042

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the pandemic conditions as 

most of the other aircraft categories, had 

been facing the challenges brought by lower 

oil prices, a trend currently moving in the opposing direction. By the time this forecast 

was completed, it was too early to include the 

most recent changes. The low oil prices impacted utilization rates and new aircraft orders both directly through decreasing activity 

in oil exploration, and also through a slowdown in related economic activity. The active

fleet of rotorcraft is projected to grow at a 

faster rate than the previous year’s forecast, 

driven by higher growth in the turbine segment, going from a total of (piston and turbine

together) 9,746 in 2020 to 13,530 in 2042. 

Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 2.2

percent annually between 2021 and 2042. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 3.9 percent a 

year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by 

certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney 

Aeronautical Center. There were 720,605

active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of 

2021. The number of certificates in some pilot categories continued to increase, while 

there were different rates of declines in the 

rotorcraft only, ATP, and recreational certificates. The FAA suspended the student pilot 

forecast since 2018. The number of student 

pilot certificates has been affected by a regulatory change that went into effect in April 

2016 and removed the expiration date on the 

new student pilot certificates. The number of 

student pilots jumped from 128,501 at the 

end of 2016 to 149,121 by the end of 2017, 

and to 250,197 at the end of 2021. The 2016 

rule change generates a cumulative increase 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

31

in the certificate numbers and breaks the link 

between student pilot and advanced certificate levels of private pilot or higher. There is 

no sufficient data yet to perform a reliable 

forecast for the student pilots.

Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by a legislative 

change as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an 

ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots 

holding a commercial pilot certificate and 

mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer 

operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates. The number of 

both commercial pilot and ATP certificates 

had increased until 2012 for three years. 

Commercial pilot certificate holders continued to increase in 2021 to 104,610. Significantly reduced number of flights and a large 

number of parked aircraft due to the pandemic generated an overcapacity for the 

ATPs employed by the airlines, despite government support to the aviation sector. Consequently, the number of pilots holding an 

ATP certificate declined in 2021 for the second year in a row, to 163,934 (still higher 

than the 2018 level), after growing every year

since 2011. 

Private pilots increased in 2021, from 

160,860 to 161,459, to a level higher than 

where they were in 2019, after a slight decline in 2020. Sport pilot certificates, created 

in 2005, kept their steady increase since their 

inception to reach 6,801 by December 31, 

2021. Rotorcraft pilots continued their decline since 2016 to end up with 13,191 by the 

end of 2021. 

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding students and ATPs) is projected 

to remain flat between 2021 and 2042 at 

around 306,400. The ATP category is forecast to increase by 30,360 (up 0.8 percent 

annually). The much smaller category of 

sport pilots are predicted to increase by 2.7 

percent annually over the forecast period. 

Commercial pilot certificates, which has 

been on an increase for five consecutive 

years, are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent between 2021 

and 2042. On the other hand, private pilot 

certificates are projected to decrease at an

average annual rate of 0.6 percent over the 

forecast horizon. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

32

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2012 2022 2032 2042

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Airline Transport Pilot

Rotorcraft only
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

33

FAA Operations

The traffic at FAA facilities underwent drastic 

changes during the period of 2019 and 2020 

from the COVID-19 impact. Activity recovered a modest 7.4percent from 44.4 million 

in 2020 to 47.7 million in 2021, following the

16.7 percent decline from 53.3 million in 

2019 to 44.4 million in 2020. The limited recovery was partially due to the fact that FY

2020 includes 5 months of pre-pandemic 

data. Going forward, the pace of recovery accelerated starting in early spring of CY 2021, 

and continued in the winter months of CY 

2021 and CY 2022 despite the fourth wave 

of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant. Elevated growth is predicted to last until 

around 2023 and 2024 as the unemployment 

rate is forecast to reach the pre-pandemic 

level around that time. 

After operations return to pre-pandemic levels, the longer term economic health along 

with the growth in air travel demand and the 

business aviation fleet will drive the long term 

growth in operations at FAA facilities over the 

rest of the forecast period. Activity at FAA 

towers and contract towers is forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.5 percent a 

year through 2042 from 50.7 million in 2022

to close to 68.4 million in 2042. The 1.5 percent annual growth forecast is lower than the 

1.9 percent forecast for 2021-2041 last year 

mainly due to the shorter recovery time from 

COVID-19. Commercial operations5 at these 

facilities are forecast to increase 2.7 percent 

a year, approximately five times faster than 

non-commercial operations. The growth in 

commercial operations is less than the 

growth in U.S. airline passengers (2.7 percent versus 3.8 percent) over the forecast 

period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats 

per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. 

Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers without increasing the number of flights. 

General aviation operations are forecast to 

increase an average of 0.6 percent a year as 

increases in turbine powered activity more 

than offset declines in piston activity. General aviation operations accounted for 57 

percent of operations in 2021. The share has 

been increasing since the pandemic, from 51 

percent in 2019 to 56 percent in 2020, and 

57 percent in 2021. This occurs because the 

decline of general aviation traffic was relatively mild during the pandemic and the recovery speed has been very swift. 

The growth in operations at towered airports 

is not uniform. Most of the activity at large 

and medium hubs6 is commercial in nature, 

given that these are the airports where most 

of the passenger enplanements in the U.S., 

about 87 percent in 2021, are reported. 

 

5 Commercial operations include air carrier and 

commuter/air taxi operations. 6 A large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more 

of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in 

FY 2021. A medium hub is defined to have at 

least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total 

U.S. revenue passenger enplanements. In the 

2021 TAF there were 29 large hub airports and 

34 medium hub airports.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

34

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2012 2022 2032 2042

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower Operations

Commercial Non Commercial

Given the growth in airline demand and most 

of that demand is at large and medium hubs, 

activity at the large and medium hubs is forecast to grow substantially faster than small 

towered airports including small FAA towers7

and FAA contract towers8. The forecasted 

annual growth is 3.0 percent at large hubs, 

2.4 percent at medium hubs, 0.9 percent at 

small FAA towers, and 0.7 percent at FAA 

contract towers between 2022 and 2042. 

Among the 29 large hubs, the airports with 

the fastest long term annual growth forecast 

are those located along the coastal sections 

 

7 Small FAA towers are defined as towered airports that are neither large or medium hubs nor 

FAA contract towers.

8 FAA contract towers are air traffic control towers 

providing air traffic control services under contract with FAA, staffed by contracted air traffic 

control specialists.

of the country where most large cities are located. Large cities have historically shown 

to generate robust economic activity, which 

in turn drives up the airline demand. On the 

other hand, the airports forecast to have 

slower long term annual growth tend to be located in the middle of the country. In terms of 

COVID-19 recovery, the airports with mostly 

domestic traffic and the ones located at popular leisure destinations are forecast to have 

shorter recovery timeline.

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations9 are forecast to grow slightly 

9 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the 

domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR 

overflights.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

35

faster than at towered facilities. This is in 

part a reflection of the different mix of activity 

at Tracons. Tracon operations are forecast 

to increase an average of 1.9 percent a year 

between 2022 and 2042. Commercial operations accounted for approximately 52 percent of Tracon operations in 2021 and are 

projected to grow 2.6 percent a year over the 

forecast period. General aviation activity at 

these facilities is projected to grow only 0.5

percent a year over the forecast. 

The number of IFR aircraft handled is the 

measure of FAA En-Route Center activity. 

Growth in airline traffic and domestic leisure

aviation is expected to lead to increases in 

activity at En-Route centers until the business aviation sector recovers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route 

centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 2.7 percent a year from 2022 to 

2042, with commercial activity growing at the 

rate of 3.1 percent annually. Activity at EnRoute centers is forecast to grow faster than 

activity at towered airports and FAA Tracons 

because more of the activity at En-Route 

centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) 

general aviation flying.10 In 2021, the share 

of commercial IFR aircraft handled at FAA 

En-Route centers is about 78 percent, which 

is greater than the 52 percent share at Tracons or the 38 percent share at FAA and 

Contract Towers.

 

 

10 Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is 

local in nature, and does not impact the centers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

36

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

After arresting the Pandemic shrinkage and 

posting a very moderate -1.2% in 2020-21 (a 

decrease of 69 aircraft), the number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast 

to increase from 5,815 in 2021 to 8,894 in 

2042, an average annual growth rate of 2.0

percent a year. The continued recovery in 

demand from the COVID-19 downturn along 

with long-term post-COVID increases in demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is 

expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2021 and 2042 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to 

grow from 3,132 to 5,532, a net average of 

114 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. As the industry recovers from the 

COVID-19 downturn, many aircraft that were 

temporarily parked are returning to the fleet, 

resulting in a large increase in the fleet (approximately 152 aircraft per year) out to 2026 

and then slower rates thereafter. The narrow-body fleet (including E-series aircraft as 

well as A220-series at JetBlue and A220-series at Delta) is projected to grow 91 aircraft 

a year as carriers replace current technology 

737 and A320 family aircraft with the next 

generation MAX and Neo families. The widebody fleet grows by an average of 24 aircraft 

a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s 

to the fleet while retiring 767-300/400 and 

777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger 

carrier wide-body fleet increases by 5.0 percent a year over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to increase from 1,807 aircraft in 2021 to 2,187 in 

2042 as the fleet expands by 0.9 percent a 

year (18 aircraft) between 2021 and 2042. 

Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, 

while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the 

E-2 family after 2021. By 2030 only a handful 

of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2042, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,979, up from 1,406 in 2021. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by 48% from 401 in 2021 to 208 by 

2042. These aircraft account for 9.5 percent 

of the fleet in 2042, down from 22.2 percent 

in 2021. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 876 aircraft in 2021

to 1,959 aircraft in 2042 driven by the growth 

in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet 

fleet is projected to increase by 19 aircraft a 

year as 737-800/900MAX’s are converted 

from passenger use to cargo service. The 

wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 

32 aircraft a year as new 777-8/10 and converted 767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, 

replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 767-

200 freighters. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

37

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2012 2022 2032 2042

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

38

Commercial Space

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates 

U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and 

operation of non-federal launch and reentry 

sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 

and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 

509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch 

Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also 

direct the U.S. Department of Transportation 

to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. 

commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is 

to license and regulate commercial launch 

and reentry operations and non-federal 

launch sites to protect public health and 

safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of 

the United States. 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out inside the U.S. and by U.S. persons 

(which includes U.S. corporations) inside or 

outside the United States. The FAA does not 

license launches or reentries the U.S. Government carries out for the Government 

(such as those owned and operated by National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

(NASA) or the Department of Defense). Amateur-class rockets do not require a FAA license or permit11. 

To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs 

the following major functions:

• Maintains an effective regulatory 

framework for commercial space

transportation activities,

 

11 Per 14 CFR Chapter 1, Part 1, section 1.1: Amateur rocket means an unmanned rocket that is 

propelled by a motor or motors having a combined total impulse of 889,600 Newton-seconds 

• Provides guidance to prospective 

commercial operators on how to comply with regulatory requirements for

obtaining an authorization and operating safely, 

• Evaluates applications for licenses, 

experimental permits, and safety approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space

transportation activities,

• Evaluates applications for licenses

for launch and reentry site operations, 

• Monitors and enforces regulatory 

compliance through safety inspections of launches, reentries, sites, 

and other regulated commercial 

space activities,

• Provides U.S. Government oversight 

of investigations associated with the 

mishap of an FAA authorized launch 

or reentry,

• Facilitates the integration of commercial space launch and reentry operations into other modes of transportation including the National Airspace

System (NAS) by establishing appropriate hazard areas and limits to ensure the protection of the public, 

• Coordinates research into the safety, 

environmental, and operational implications of new technologies and the

evolving commercial space transportation industry, 

(200,000 pound-seconds) or less; and cannot 

reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers 

above the earth’s surface.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

39

• Conducts outreach to the commercial 

space industry by hosting working 

groups and conferences, 

• Collaborates with Government partners, such as the Department of Defense and NASA to assure consistent 

approaches to regulations, policy, 

and standards, and

• Conducts outreach to international 

counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory framework across the world.

In addition to AST headquarters offices in 

Washington, D.C., AST maintains staff with 

assigned duty locations near active launch 

ranges to facilitate communication with 

space launch operators and to implement 

FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are currently assigned to duty locations in close proximity to: 

Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station in Florida; Johnson 

Space Center in Texas; and, Vandenberg Air 

Force Base and the Mojave Air and Space 

Port in California. FAA also directly supports 

NASA’s commercial space initiatives by 

providing on-site staff at both the Johnson 

Space Center and Kennedy Space Center to 

coordinate the FAA’s regulatory and compliance activities with NASA’s development 

and operational requirements for commercial space.

Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities of FAA

The business cycle from the time a firm first 

contacts FAA until the last launch of a licensed operation can be several years. 

There are many activities performed by FAA

during this cycle. The most notable activities 

are described here. 

Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses, 

Experimental Permits, and Safety Element 

Approvals

Prospective applicants seeking commercial 

space transportation licenses, experimental 

permits, or safety approvals are required by 

regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During this period, FAA assists them in identifying potential 

obstacles to authorization issuance and determining potential approaches to regulatory 

compliance. In addition, many new operators are seeking to incorporate new technologies, vehicle types, or operational models

creating opportunities for FAA to assist in determining the applicable regulations or approach to regulatory compliance. 

Licenses, Permits, and Safety Element Approvals

FAA authorizes commercial space transportation activities via the issuance of licenses, 

permits, and safety element approval. 

Though many licenses authorize multiple 

launches (for mature launch systems), the 

need remains for FAA to also issue individual 

launch licenses for systems that are still maturing towards a high level of reliability. Furthermore, with the dynamic commercial 

space industry, FAA often evaluates launch 

and reentry systems and operations that are 

evolving and changing, which may ultimately 

require license modifications or issuance of 

new licenses.

Inherent in the review process is the requirement to conduct policy reviews and payload 

reviews. When conducting a policy review, 

FAA determines whether the proposed 

launch, reentry, or site operation presents 

any issues that would jeopardize public 

health and safety or the safety of property, 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

40

adversely affect U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, or be inconsistent with 

international obligations of the United States. 

If not otherwise exempt from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or 

reentry to determine whether the payload 

would jeopardize public health and safety, 

the safety of property, U.S. national security 

or foreign policy interests, or the international 

obligations of the United States. The policy 

and/or payload determination becomes part 

of the licensing record on which FAA’s licensing determination is based.

FAA reviews and issues launch and reentry 

site operator licenses and license renewals. 

FAA also reviews and evaluates launch site 

license applications for launch sites located

in foreign countries but operating with U.S.-

licensed launch or reentry systems. FAA coordinates planning among Federal, state, 

and local governments and with the commercial range operators or users. As part of the 

evaluation of applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also conducts environmental 

reviews consistent with its responsibilities 

under the National Environmental Policy Act. 

FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of 

safety element approvals for space launch

systems equipment, processes, technicians,

training and other supporting activities. FAA

reviews, evaluates, and issues safety approvals to support the continued introduction of 

new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety approval renewal applications.

Safety Analyses

FAA conducts flight safety, system safety, 

maximum probable loss, and explosive 

safety analyses to support the evaluation and

issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also 

evaluates and analyzes the performance of 

safety-critical space flight personnel to determine how they affect public safety risk. In the 

near future, as commercial firms become 

more involved with human space flight activity, AST and the FAA’s Office of Aerospace Medicine may evaluate, analyze, and

determine the health risks to the space flight 

participants (crew and space flight participants) due to natural and flight-induced

launch and reentry environments, as well as

any hazardous ground operations directly associated with the flight. 

Inspections and Enforcement

FAA currently conducts as many as 330 preflight/ reentry, flight/ reentry, and post-flight/ 

reentry safety inspections per year. Inspections often occur simultaneously at any of the

12 licensed U.S. and international commercial space launch sites, as well as at 4 Federal launch ranges and 3 exclusive-use 

launch sites. The establishment of non-federal launch sites requires additional inspections in areas such as ground safety that

have traditionally been overseen by the U.S.

Air Force (now the U.S. Space Force) at Federal ranges. At spaceports and launch sites

with high launch rates (e.g., Cape Canaveral 

Space Force Station, Vandenberg Air Force

Base, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, 

and Spaceport America), at least 80 percent 

of inspections are typically conducted by locally-based field inspectors. Additionally, as 

a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many inspections in fiscal year (FY) 2020 were handled remotely. FAA will leverage this approach in the upcoming years in order to respond to a dynamic operational tempo, minimize cost, and increase efficiency. 

Mishap Investigations

Mishap events have demonstrated that FAA

needs to have the capacity to oversee the investigation of at least two space launch or 

reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

41

anywhere in the world, and to lead/oversee

as many as nine investigations during a single year. FAA anticipates an increase in mishaps with new operators coming online. FAA

reviews all applicant mishap plans and accident investigation procedures as part of the

license and permit evaluation process.

NAS Integration

AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP) to 

support the safe and efficient integration of 

commercial launch and reentry operations 

through the NAS and its system of airports 

and air traffic managed by the ATO. AST expects an increased level of interaction with 

the ATO, ARP, and the FAA Office of 

NextGen (ANG). Further, AST works with 

the ATO as FAA develops technologies to 

facilitate safe and efficient integration of commercial launch and reentry operations

through the NAS, including technologies to 

improve the integration of launch and reentry 

data into FAA air traffic control systems and

technologies to improve the timely and accurate development and distribution of notices 

of aircraft hazard areas.

FAA’s Launch and Reentry Operations Forecast

FAA’s 5-year launch and reentry operations 

forecast relies on data collected from operators and prospective applicants as the starting point for its launch and reentry forecasts, 

tying launch and reentry forecasts directly to 

anticipated operations by commercial space 

transportation firms known to FAA. As commercial space activity is still a highly dynamic and rapidly evolving industry, FAA’s 

forecasting methodology continues to take a 

conservative view of industry growth by using historical launch activity data to establish 

better forecasting parameters for both new 

applicants and existing operators. 

There are several factors that magnify the 

challenges associated with predicting the 

number of launches and reentries to expect 

in a given year. They include:

• list of firms intending to launch or actually launch is dynamic, 

• continued development of new technologies, 

• launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,

• commercial human spaceflight by 

both government astronauts and private citizens, 

• dynamic nature of flight test programs, and 

• mishaps. 

New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)] allow a faster operational tempo, 

and at the same time, early use of these technologies can increase the probability of a mishap. A mishap can drastically impact launch 

plans for one or more firms. Investigations and 

subsequent “return to flight” for firms impacted 

by a mishap can take months. FY2022 forecast data was collected in January 2022 and 

finalized in March 2022. The forecast can be 

considered a first quarter correction to previous forecast numbers. 

However, there are reasons for optimism 

around the future of space activity moving forward. Space data, products, and services 

provide tangible benefits and economic opportunity to the American people as well as 

people all over the world. Firms are moti-
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

42

vated towards new technology that is expected to increase launch cadences year 

over year. Interest and demand for space 

tourism as well as demands for placement of 

satellites and other equipment is anticipated 

to grow with each successful space mission. 

Likewise, as launch/reentry activities increase investment opportunities are also expected to grow. FAA has licensed approximately 525 launch/reentries since 1989, with 

24% or 127 launch/reentries occurring in just 

the past three years (FY2018-2021). FY2021 

actuals were the highest in U.S. history at 64, 

accounting for 12% of the activity since 1989.

FAA is forecasting launch and re-entry activity to increase from a low-high range of 45-68 

in FY2022 to a low-high range of 59-186 by 

FY2026. Much of this increase is attributable 

to the lineup of reusable vehicles and the expectation for increased human space exploration. Taking these factors into account, the 

following table and graph provide FAA’s forecasts through 2026, as well as historical activity.

FY20

15

FY20

16

FY20

17

FY20

18

FY20

19

FY20

20

FY20

21

FY20

22

FY20

23

FY20

24

FY20

25

FY20

26

Forecast High 25 29 26 38 44 46 44 68 92 122 155 186

Forecast Low 22 25 17 17 33 34 36 45 53 53 54 59

Actual 14 17 22 35 32 33 64

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Operations

Number of FAA Licensed and Permitted Operations by

Fiscal Year, World-wide

It is important to note all FAA-authorized 

commercial space operations are included in 

this forecast, regardless of where they occurred in the world. That is, not all launch 

and reentry activity occurs at one location, for 

example, at Cape Canaveral, Florida. In the 

past year, FAA licensed launches and reentries throughout the world, including multiple 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

43

reentries in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans 

and six licensed launches from New Zealand. This forecast, however, does not include launch activity not authorized by the 

FAA (e.g. U.S. Department of Defense or 

non-commercial NASA launches), launch activity for other nations, and this forecast is not 

tied exclusively to satellite demand.

Additional Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy

Commercial space transportation is a rapidly 

evolving industry. The industry’s growth 

through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the 

challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations.

New Commercial Launch Technologies and

Operations are Emerging Rapidly

The commercial space transportation industry is exploring a variety of new technologies

and new approaches to space launch and

reentry. In late 2015, both Blue Origin and

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

(SpaceX) successfully demonstrated the reusability of their vertically launched rockets. 

Both companies are now developing a new 

generation of much larger orbital vehicles 

that will launch and land in a vertical configuration. By May 2021, SpaceX had successfully recovered 10 flown boosters, and 

planned to continue this trend in 2022. While 

these new orbital-class vehicles are expected to lead to increases in the number of 

annual launch and reentry operations over 

the next four years, if the trend is realized, 

greater increases may continue in the future, 

as the upper end of the forecast shows in fiscal years 2023 through 2026. Other U.S. 

commercial entities are also pursuing the development of reusable launch vehicles 

(RLVs). At the same time, state and local 

governments are joining with commercial 

firms to promote additional launch and 

reentry sites, and some firms are seeking to 

establish launch sites for their exclusive use. 

This added launch capacity sets the stage for 

simultaneous operations and an increase in 

the number operations per year. 

New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation Continue to Emerge 

The continuing development of commercial 

space transportation technology has spurred

new markets for commercial space transportation services. As the commercialization of 

space flight demand increases on suborbital 

and orbital launches, new and reusable vehicles are emerging. With SpaceX and Blue 

Origin leading the way for reusable rocket 

development, there are a number of other 

private companies following suit. The introduction of reusable rockets is a significant 

cost reducer and thereby encourages more 

exploration into space.

States and municipalities have sought to 

open new spaceports to attract commercial 

space transportation and associated hightech firms and create technology hubs for research and development. In 2021, Blue 

Origin flew its first crewed mission into 

space. Since 2008, NASA has managed the

Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program, which acquires transportation services

from commercial providers to deliver cargo to 

and from the International Space Station 

(ISS). In 2020 and 2021, SpaceX successfully transported NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. Boeing continues to work on its vehicle for NASA’s 

crewed mission. The commercial vehicles
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

44

used by NASA for cargo and crew transportation will have other commercial applications that increase the capabilities of the

commercial space transportation industry as 

a whole. 

Looking further afield, there are several companies in the regulatory pipeline seeking authority to land commercial vehicles on the 

Moon, establish private-sector space stations, service satellites on-orbit, and establish launch sites using non-traditional technologies like railguns and tube launchers. 

Additional FAA resources may be needed to 

determine how these unprecedented commercial space ventures will impact public 

safety and U.S. national interests.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

45

Unmanned Aircraft System

Unmanned Aircraft Systems or Drones

Drones have been experiencing healthy 

growth in the United States and around the 

world over the past few years. The last two 

years have been no exception, despite the 

profound impact of COVID-19 on the overall 

economy.12 A drone consists of a remotelypiloted aircraft and its associated elements—

including the control station and the associated communication links—that are required 

for safe and efficient operation in the national 

airspace system (NAS). The introduction of 

drones in the NAS has opened up numerous 

possibilities, especially from a commercial 

perspective. That introduction has also 

brought operational challenges including 

drones’ safe and secure integration into the 

NAS. Despite these challenges, the drone 

sector holds enormous promise; potential 

uses range from individuals flying solely for 

recreational purposes to large companies 

delivering commercial packages and delivering medical supplies. Public service uses, 

such as conducting search and rescue support missions following natural disasters, are

proving promising as well.

This section provides a broad overview covering recreational and commercial (or part 

107) unmanned aircraft and their recent 

trends, as gathered from trends in registration, surveys, overall market, and operational 

information.13 Using these trends and insights from industry, the FAA produces a 

number of forecasts. Forecasts reported in 

the following sections are driven primarily by 

the assumptions of the continuing evolution 

of the regulatory environment, the commercial ingenuity of manufacturers and operators, persistent recreational uses, and underlying demand for drone services. 

Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration

The FAA’s online registration system for recreational/model small drones went into effect 

on December 21, 2015. This required all 

drones weighing more than 0.55 pounds (or 

 

12 Drone, model aircraft, and unmanned aircraft 

systems are often used interchangeably, both in 

common and legal terms. Although some communities differentiate between these terms, the 

three terms are used interchangeably in this document. 

13 Recreational and commercial drones are also 

called, interchangeably, hobby and non-hobby 

UAS, respectively. On October 5, 2018, the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 

(Pub. L. 115-254). Section 349 of that Act repealed the Special Rule for Model Aircraft (section 336 of Pub. L. 112-95; Feb. 14, 2012) and 

replaced it with new conditions to operate recreational sUAS without requirements for FAA certification or operating authority. The Exception for 

250 grams) and fewer than 55 pounds (or 25 

kilograms) to be registered using the on-line 

system [www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/register_drone/] or the existing 

Limited Recreational Operations of Unmanned 

Aircraft established by section 349 is codified at

49 U.S.C. 44809 [see www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10169/exception-for-limited-recreational-operations-of-unmanned-aircraft for more details]. Recreational 

fliers, under Section 349, are referred to as “recreational fliers or modeler community-based organizations” [see www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/]. In previous notes including other 

documents of the Agency, these terms are often 

interchanged. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

46

(paper-driven) aircraft registry. Registration 

was free for the first 30 days, and $5 thereafter. Following a temporary halt in registration 

due to an order from the US Appeals Court 

in Washington, DC in May, 2017 (Taylor v. 

Huerta), the registration requirement for all 

model aircraft was reinstated in December, 

2017 with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) [Pub. L. 115-91, Sec. 1092]. 

The NDAA extended the registration for 

three years for those registered prior to December, 2017. New registration resumed after the temporary halt was removed. On October 5, 2018, the President signed the FAA 

Reauthorization Act of 2018, which formalized new conditions for recreational use of 

drones. [See www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=91844 for more details].

With the continuing registration, over 1.37 

million (new) recreational drone owners had 

already registered with the FAA by end of 

December, 2021.14 On average, new owner 

registration stood at around 10,300 per 

month during January – December 2021 with 

some expected peaks during the holiday 

seasons and summer.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Number of Active Registration in the U.S.

2015:Q4 2016:Q3 2017:Q2 2018:Q1 2018:Q4 2019:Q3 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4

Year/Quarter

Model/Recreation Registrations by Quarters/Year (Cumulative)

137,705 

1,374,918 

The current pace of new registration has decreased compared to last year in the same 

 

period; average new monthly owner registration during 2021 stood at 2,500 less than the 

level observed in 2020. 

14 For our estimate and projections using the registration database, applying to recreational, commercial/part 107 and remote pilots, we use only those 

who are registered in the US and the territories for 

the period January – December, 2021. Furthermore, 

we draw a clear distinction between new registrations, cancellations, and renewals in this document. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

47

Forecasts Using New Registrations vs. Effective/Active Fleet 

As noted in last year’s Aerospace Forecast, 

small drones are registered for 3 years while 

remote pilot (RP) certifications are valid for 2 

years. [See www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/register_drone/ and

www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/become_a_drone_pilot/.] Following the Taylor 

vs. Huerta ruling and the FAA’s authority 

over registration via NDAA, the Agency 

elected to extend the registration period, for 

all drones registered prior to December 12, 

2017, for three years. Thus, December 12, 

2020 marked the first effective renewal date. 

As a result of this sequence of events, as 

noted in last year’s report, approximately 

800,000 small drone registrations were due 

for renewal in December 2020.

The beginning of the registration renewal afforded the FAA an opportunity to analyze the 

 

data, including duplicate and spurious registrations. Following this process, an examination of the data provided an opportunity for 

the FAA to discern the effective/active fleet 

more succinctly using the following five elements: Cancellations, defined as number of 

registrations canceled by user; Expiry, defined as the number of registrations expired; 

New, defined as the number of brand new 

registrations (i.e. new registration number) 

that are reported in the preceding section; 

Renew, defined as the number of registrations renewed prior to expiration; and Renew+, defined as the number of registrations 

renewed after expiration. 

Cumulative cancellations were, on average, 

15,313/month for the time period of January 

2021 – December 2021 (or averaging around 

179 new cancellations, or the average gaps 

between the two bars, for each month during 

the January – December 2021 timeframe):15 

15 We report cumulative numbers throughout this 

document for two reasons: first, cumulative numbers reflect the stability of the trend over time, taking into account past changes; and second, differences between the two numbers (i.e., bars) 

capture the changes between two particular time 

periods. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

48

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Cancellations

On average, cumulative registrations expired 

at a rate of more than 825,000/month following the substantial adjustment in December 

2020, as noted above and as shown below. 

(This is equal to slightly more than 8,480 new 

average expiries for each month during January – December 2021): 

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Expiry
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

49

Renew or re-registrations prior to expiry date 

logged, on average, more than 

98,984/month on a cumulative basis (or 712 

new average renewals for each month during 

January – December 2021). This was almost 

four times higher than Renew+ on a cumulative basis, as reported below:

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Renew

Renew+ are re-registrations after expiry date 

logged, on cumulative average, at 

28,254/month. This is equivalent to approximately 1,780 new average Renew+ registrations for each month during January – December 2021 and are reported in below: 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

50

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Renew+

A summary of the above 4 charts is provided in below to narrate the relative contributions of 

cancellations, expiry, renew and renew+: 

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Number of Registrations

Expiry, Cancellations, and Renewal/Renewal+ during 2021: 

Recreations/model

Cumulative Cancellations Cumulative Expiry Cumulative Renew Cumulative Renew+
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042

51

Calculating active/effective registrations for a 

particular day requires calculating the “net 

gain/loss” of registrations for each preceding 

day and adding them together with the particular day (i.e. calculating the running sum).

The following are the contributions of each 

element to the day's net gain/loss:16

• Cancel: (-1 for each registration); 

• Expire: (-1 for each registration); 

• New: (+1 for each registration) 

• Renew: (0); and 

• Renew+:(+1 for each registration)17

An example of this calculation may be constructed as follows: calculating the net 

gain/loss for recreational registration for August 9, 2021, where Cancel = 11; Expiry = 

263; New = 276; Renew = 20; and Renew+ 

= 46 had been reported for recreational operators/modelers. 

Thus, Net Gain/Loss for August 9, 2021 = 

11 X (-1) + 263 X (-1) + 

276 X (1) + 20 X (0) + 

46 X (+1) = 48

Finally, a comparison chart capturing the difference between cumulative new registrations and. effective/active registrations, using 

cumulative net gain/loss for recreational registrations, is provided below:18

 16 We attribute this methodology of calculations to 

the UAS Integration Office (AUS), provided internally to facilitate this year’s forecasts. For cumulative new registration trends, see the final graph 

preceding this section. 

17 It is important to note here that renew+ is a replacement for cancellation on a one-on-one basis. 

18 There are two important aspects making the 

difference: (a) the base; and (b) the rate of 

change in two lines. For cumulative net gain/loss, 

the base is highly influenced by substantial expiry 

and cancellations implemented in December 

2020, as discussed above; the rates of change 

(or slope) of the cumulative net gain/loss line is 

influenced by these two elements plus new registrations and Renew+ re-registrations. In comparison, new registration counted cumulatively has a 

substantial base thus making the difference between the two lines while new monthly registrations is the primary factor driving the rate of 

change for cumulative new registrations line. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

52

2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

New Registrations versus Effective/Active Fleet: 

Model Recreation 

Cumulative New Registrations

Cumulative Net Gain

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

0

Recreational registration, and thus ownership of small drones, is distributed throughout the country. Using the data available in 

December 2021, the spatial distribution of 

ownership by zip codes (shown below) 

demonstrates that small drones continue to 

be distributed throughout the US, with 

denser ownership mapping closely to the 

population centers of the zip codes, as expected.

 

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

53

At present, recreational ownership registration does not correspond one-to-one with aircraft. Unlike their commercial non-model 

counterparts, the registration rules for recreational operators do not require owners of 

recreational small drones to register each individual aircraft; only operators are registered. For each registration, therefore, one or 

more aircraft may be owned. In some instances, there is no equipment associated 

with registration. Free registration at the initial phase may have incentivized some to 

create a registration without any equipment 

to report. Notwithstanding these challenges, 

there is information available, both from industry and academia, allowing us to understand aircraft ownership. Furthermore, as a 

result of robust strategic drone research 

planning, the FAA has launched various research activities to understand the possible 

magnitude of the sector as well as implications for likely aircraft that may be used for 

recreational flying, as well as the safety impacts on the small drone fleet from gradual 

integration into the NAS. Finally, the Agency 

has incorporated outside analysis to aid forecasting efforts. 

As noted in earlier annual reports, forecasts 

of small drones were based primarily on new 

registrations without considering the effective/active fleet for reasons described in the 

beginning of the section (e.g., lack of renewals required). However, now that data on elements for net gain/loss are available, more 

granular forecasts can be made, particularly 

the lower bound, using the effective or active 

 

fleet. With over 1.37 million new recreational 

operators cumulatively registered as of December 2021, the FAA estimates that there 

are approximately 1.58 million sUAS in the 

fleet distinctly identified as recreational aircraft. Comparing with industry sales and 

other data noted earlier, we conclude that the 

number of recreational aircraft is almost 15% 

higher than ownership registration.19 Applying cumulative net gain/loss calculations 

from above, the effective/active fleet is estimated to be around 607,177 as of December 

2021. This provides us the lower bound of effective/active fleet of recreational small 

drones in the NAS. 

A comparison of last year’s data (2020) with 

this year’s (2021) shows the annual growth 

rate for new registration to be approximately 

10.2%. This was possible due to the continuation of drones playing a dominant role in 

recreation, a continuation facilitated by decreasing equipment prices (e.g., average 

price of $750 or less), improved technology 

such as built-in cameras and higher capability sensors, and relatively easy maneuvering. 

Furthermore, it appears that COVID-19 had 

a positive impact on recreational registration 

during 2020, but a negative impact during 

2021. (See below for more details.) Nevertheless, similar to all technologies fueling 

growth of hobby items, (e.g., cell phone and 

video game consoles, and prior to that, video 

cameras and video players), the trend in recreational small drone ownership registration 

has been slowing. It is likely to slow down further as the pace of falling prices diminishes 

19 This calculation involves taking into account retirement, redundancy, and loss of aircraft corresponding to ownership registration. As aircraft become sturdier and operators more situationally 

aware, this rate has been changing and we expect it to change dynamically over time. Assumptions tying ownership to aircraft holding and issues related to compliance have been discussed 

elsewhere. [See napawash.org/academy-studies/federal-aviation-administration-assessmentof-compliance-with-and-effective for a recent 

study by the National Academy of Public Administration on these issues.] 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

54

and the early adopters begin to experience 

limits in their experiments, or simply because 

recreational eagerness plateaus. 

Given trends in registration and market developments, the FAA forecasts that the recreational small drone market will saturate at 

around 1.81 million units over the next five 

years.20 However, there is still some upside 

uncertainty due to further changes in technology, including battery life, faster integration from a regulatory standpoint, and the 

likely event of continued decreasing prices. 

This leads to upside possibilities in the forecast of as many as 1.84 million units by 2026. 

In contrast, there are some low-side uncertainties; the primary among them is the lack 

of renewal (i.e., before and after expiry 

dates), followed by expiry and cancellations. 

The inertia, loss of interests, or lack of recreational opportunities may be key factors 

leading to the observed trends in renewal. 

Nevertheless, if renewals were kept up over 

time, effective/active fleet would likely converge to base forecasts, i.e., derived from cumulative new registrations combined with 

multiplicity of craft ownership. In the presence of slower renewal tendency, as data 

presently indicates, it is likely that the effective/active fleet will be lower than that derived 

from base forecasts. This provides the FAA 

with an opportunity to derive low-side forecasts using effective/active fleet calculations. 

Nevertheless, low-side uncertainty growth 

trajectory (i.e., annual growth rates) tracks 

closer to the base forecast. A forecast base 

(i.e., likely), together with high and low scenarios, is provided in the table below:21 

 

Fiscal Year Low* Base** High**

Historical

2021 0.6072 1.5822 1.5822

Forecast

2022 0.6509 1.6965 1.6981

2023 0.6848 1.7576 1.7645

2024 0.7096 1.7965 1.8182

2025 0.7262 1.8039 1.8272

2026 0.7378 1.8075 1.8360

*: Effective/Active fleet counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership.

**: New registration counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership.

Total Recreation/Model Fleet (Million sUAS Units)

 

20 These forecasts have two dimensions worth 

emphasizing. When looked at from the cumulative base, “total” captures the number of drones 

that are reported to be in the system (i.e., base 

and high); while “effective/active fleet” refers to 

how many aircraft are presently operating in the 

system (i.e., low). 

21 As noted earlier, low scenario reports effective/active fleet using a net gain/loss calculation. 

By definition, low scenario differs from base and 

high scenarios, which are based on new registrations. Hence, a low scenario for the year 2021 is 

markedly different than the baseline and high 

scenario for the same year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

55

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the recreational small drone sector would have 

slightly more than 1.50 million drones in 

2021, a growth rate exceeding 4.6% from the 

year before (2020). Actual data using new 

registration overshot the projection by a little 

over 80,000 registrations, with over 1.58 million small drones already accounted for by 

the end of 2021. Thus, our forecast of recreational small drones last year undershot by 

5.06% for 2021, (or 1.5822 million actual aircraft vs 1.5022 million aircraft that were projected last year). 

The FAA uses the trends observed in registrations, particularly over the past year; calculation of net gain/loss (described above) 

this year; information from the survey conducted in 2018; expert opinions distilled from 

Transportation Research Board annual

workshops; review of available industry forecasts; market/industry research; and timeseries models fitted on monthly data. These 

apply to all three elements reported above: 

low, base, and high forecasts. Using these, 

the FAA forecasts that the recreational small 

drone fleet will likely (i.e., base scenario) attain its peak over the next 5 years, from the 

present 1.58 million units to approximately 

1.81 million units by 2026. 

Following a similar growth trajectory as the 

base, there will be approximately 738,000 

active/effective small drones over the next 

 

five years in 2026, which is now the low forecast for recreational/model small drones. Active/effective fleet count is derived and projected based on the net gain/loss calculation 

discussed above. The high scenario, on the 

other hand, may reach as high as 1.84 million 

units. High scenario projection is based on 

the base forecast. 

Notice that eventual saturation at somewhat 

higher levels, in comparison to last year’s 

projections, reflects relatively higher new 

registration by recreational flyers observed 

during 2021. The increased new registration 

trend, in part driven by COVID-19, may or 

may not continue in the longer run.22 In comparison, low side forecasts assume the present trend in renewals followed by similar expiry and cancellations. Nevertheless, the 

growth rates underlying these numbers are 

fairly steady in the initial years, but fade 

faster in the last two to three years. The gradual saturation that is projected in five years 

and beyond in the recreational small drone 

fleet parallels other consumer technology 

products and the Agency’s projections from 

last year, particularly with respect to base 

and high forecasts. However, both the numbers and the growth trajectory for the low 

scenario (i.e., effective/active fleet) are fundamentally different than the last year for 

reasons described above. Nevertheless, it 

provides a lower bound that is likely to be 

closer to reality in terms of small drones that 

are in use and effective in the NAS. 

22 It is quite likely that many users are buying and 

experimenting with recreational small drones 

given the COVID-19 public health emergency and 

the substantial portion of the workers presently 

working from home. This trend may or may not 

continue once regular work patterns are resumed. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

56

The Recreational UAS Safety Test (TRUST)

Under the most recent (2018) reauthorization 

bill [see www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr302/BILLS115hr302enr.pdf], new requirements for recreational pilots have been introduced. (See 

P.L. 115-254 – exception for limited recreational operations of unmanned aircraft.). 

TRUST is the safety test for recreational/model small drones. It provides education and testing for recreational flyers on important safety and regulatory information. All 

recreational flyers must pass an aeronautical 

knowledge and safety test and provide proof 

of test passage – the TRUST completion certificate — to the FAA or law enforcement 

upon request. [See www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/knowledge_test_updates/ for

more details.] By December 2021, more than 

175,000 recreational flyers completed 

TRUST certification subsequent to its inception in June 2021. 

Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs. Effective/Active Fleet 

Online registration for commercial/nonmodel small drones went into effect on April 

1, 2016. Unlike recreational/model ownership, rules for commercial registration require owners to register each small drone, 

thus creating a one-to-one correspondence 

between registration and aircraft. During the 

period of January – December 2021, more 

than 100,000 commercial operators registered their new equipment. The pace of 

monthly registration, around 8,500, is higher 

than the same period in 2020, which was approximately 7,870. It appears that the pace 

of new registrations is picking up speed 

slightly in comparison with 2020 and prior 

years. (From April 2016 – December 2020 

there were roughly 9,100 new registrations 

per month.) As the pace of recreational registration has increased somewhat, particularly last year, the pace of new registration 

for the commercial counterparts has followed 

suit, with more than 620,000 commercial 

drones registered since April 2016. 

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

57

Year/Quarter

Non-Model Registrations of sUAS Aircraft by 

Quarters/Year (Cumulative)

Number of Active Non-Model 

Registration in the U.S.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2016:Q1 2016:Q4 2017:Q3 2018:Q2 2019:Q1 2019:Q4 2020:Q3 2021:Q2

12,093 

622,055 

For each month the registration has been 

available, over 4,600 new aircraft per month 

were registered until December 2017. This 

pace accelerated to 14,600 new registrations 

per month during 2018. During 2019, average monthly new registrations stood at approximately 10,100. In the past year, 2020, 

average monthly registration dropped to 

7,850, while during 2021, average monthly 

registrations jumped by 650 to around 8,500. 

The commercial small drone sector is dynamic and appears to be at an inflection 

point, demonstrating powerful stages of 

growth. Unlike the recreational small drone 

sector, the FAA anticipates that the growth 

rate in this sector will remain high over the 

next few years. This is primarily driven by the 

regulatory clarity that part 107 continues to 

provide to industry. In particular, the Operations Over People final rule, published on December 28, 2020, is the latest incremental 

step towards further integration of small 

drones into the NAS. This final rule allows 

routine operations over people and routine 

operations at night under certain circumstances, and eliminates the need for individual part 107 waivers. [See 

www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/OOP_Executive_Summary.pdf for 

more details.] 

The Remote ID rule was announced on December 28, 2020 as well. [See 

www.faa.gov/news/media/attachments/RemoteID_Final_Rule.pdf] Upon adjudicating numerous comments from stakeholders, the final rule [See 

www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/2021-

08/RemoteID_Final_Rule.pdf for more details] was published in the Federal Register 

on January 15, 2021 with an original effective 

date of March 16, 2021. Corrections made to 

the rule and published in the Federal Register on March 10, 2021 delayed the effective 

date to April 21, 2021. Remote ID (i.e., digital 

license-plate) of remotely piloted aircraft is 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

58

necessary to ensure public safety and efficiency of US airspace. The rule applies to all 

operators of small drones that require FAA 

registration (i.e., both recreational and part 

107). Remote ID provides airspace awareness to the FAA, national security agencies, 

law enforcement entities, and other government officials. In accordance with the requirements of the present rule, remotely piloted aircraft in flight are to provide, via 

broadcast, certain identification, location, 

and performance information that can be received by interested parties on the ground 

and by other airspace users. 

There are three ways to comply with the remote ID rule: (a) operate a standard remote 

ID small drone broadcasting identification 

and location information of both the aircraft 

and control station; (b) operate a small drone 

with a remote ID broadcast module attached 

to it that broadcasts identification, location 

and take-off information; and (c) operate a 

small drone without remote ID at specific 

FAA-recognized identification areas (or 

FRIAs). As noted, almost all of the final rule 

on remote ID became effective on April 21, 

2021. The subpart covering the process for 

FRIA applications from community-based organizations and educational institutions becomes effective September 16, 2022. Drone 

manufacturer compliance with the final rule’s 

requirements becomes effective on September 16, 2022 as well. Finally, operator compliance with the remote ID rule and/or in an 

FAA designated FRIA is required by September 16, 2023. [See www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/remote_id/ for more details] 

These two rules together provide muchneeded regulatory clarity and reduce the 

need for waivers under part 107. With enhancement of operational efficiencies under 

increasingly well-defined concepts of operations (CONOPS)—which ensures safety and 

transparent information flow across the community—more and more commercial uses 

will become likely, fueling even further 

growth. Notably, as a central location for receiving all operational information, including 

registration, authorization, and accident report logs the DroneZone has helped further 

facilitate this growth. [faadronezone.faa.gov/#/]. 

As noted in the preceding section, the beginning of the registration renewal afforded the 

FAA an opportunity to review part 107 data; 

duplicates and unnecessary registrations 

were removed, and the registration database 

was made cleaner and more compact. As in 

the case of recreational/model aircraft, an 

examination of the data provides an opportunity to discern the effective/active fleet 

more accurately using the following five elements introduced earlier: Cancellations; Expiry; New; Renew; and Renew+. It is worth 

mentioning here that, prior to having access 

to these five elements, forecasts in the past 

were based only on new registration trends. 

An average of 55,140 cancellations per 

month, on a cumulative basis, were reported 

between January – December 2021, as 

shown below. This is an average of approximately 1,650 new cancellations for each 

month of 2021. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

59

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Cancellations

An average of 180,306 expirations per month 

was reported on a cumulative basis between 

January 2021 – December 2021 following 

the substantial adjustment noted above and 

as shown below. (This equals approximately 

12,610 new average expiries for each month 

during January 2021 – December 2021): 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Expiry
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

60

Renew or re-registration prior to expiry date 

logged, on average, more than 

13,440/month on a cumulative basis during 

January 2021 – December 2021 (or 1,610 

new average renewals for each month during 

January – December 2021): 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Renew

“Renew+” are re-registrations after expiry, 

and logged, on average, 10,986/month on a 

cumulative basis. This is an average of 718 

new Renew+ each month between January 

2021 – December 2021, as reported below: 

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Number of Registrations

Cumulative Renew+

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

61

As in the case of recreational/model registrations, calculating active/effective registrations for a particular day requires calculating 

the “net gain/loss” of registrations for each 

preceding day and adding them with the particular day (i.e. calculating the running sum). 

Using the formulation described in the example in the preceding section, we can derive 

the net gain/loss for part 107 data as well. 

A summary of the above 4 charts is provided 

in below to relate the relative contributions of

cancellations, expiry, renew and renew+:

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Number of Registrations

Expiry, Cancellations, and Renewal/Renewal+ during 2021: NonModel

Cumulative Cancellations Cumulative Expiry Cumulative Renew Cumulative Renew+

A comparison chart capturing the difference 

between cumulative new registrations vs. effective/active registrations using net 

gain/loss for part 107 registration is provided 

below: 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

62

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

550,000

650,000

2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4

New Registrations versus Effective/Active Fleet: 

Non-Model 

Cumulative New Registrations

Cumulative Net Gain

As in the case of recreational drone ownership, commercial small drones are distributed across the country. A spatial distribution 

of equipment registration by zip codes (using 

data for December 2021) demonstrates that 

commercial small drones are distributed 

throughout the country, with denser activity 

mapping closely against the economic or 

commercial activities of the geographical areas. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

63

Last year, the FAA forecasted that the commercial drone sector would include approximately 589,000 small drones in 2021, a 

growth rate exceeding 21% over the year before (2020). Actual data came in slightly over 

622,000 aircraft by the end of 2021. Our forecast of commercial small drones last year 

thus undershot by 5% for 2021 (or 622,055 

actual aircraft vs 589,463 projected aircraft). 

Forecasting in a time of tremendous uncertainty is indeed challenging, especially given 

the economic slowdown during COVID-19 

and its impact on the drone sector. The commercial small drone sector’s fast growth and 

adjustments during the pandemic demonstrate that fact. Nevertheless, our forecast 

errors for both recreation and commercial 

small drones appear to be within the bounds 

of reasonableness.

Fiscal Year Low* Base** High**

Historical

2021 328 622 622

Forecast

2022 292 699 729

2023 301 757 809

2024 320 801 869

2025 339 834 918

2026 355 858 968

*: Effective/Active fleet counts;

**: New registration counts based on fleet counts;

Total Commercial/Non-Model Fleet (Thousand sUAS Units)

The FAA uses the trends observed in registration during previous years, calculation of 

net gain/loss, information from the survey 

conducted in 2018, a review of available industry forecasts/workshops and past FAA 

Drone Symposiums, and internal research 

together with market/industry research. Using these, the FAA forecasts that the com-

 

mercial drone fleet will likely (i.e., base scenario) be at around 858,000 by 2026. This is 

1.38 times larger than the current number of 

new commercial small drones.23 

Using low or effective/active fleet, the FAA 

forecasts an expansion of the small drone 

fleet by 26,000, 1.08 times larger than the 

currently calculated effective/active fleet of 

23 Last year, the ratio of end-year forecast to 

base-year forecast was 1.7-times. (That is the 

FAA forecasted end-year to be 1.7 time base 

year’s (2020) numbers in 5-year (2025)). Higher 

forecasts are often the result of improved regulatory environments, as noted below, and environments that are in the process of rule-making evaluation (See fn. #17-19). 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

64

328,000 units.24 As the present base (i.e., the 

cumulative total) increases, the FAA anticipates the growth rate of the sector will slow 

down over time, and the effective/active fleet 

will likely catch up with the growth trajectory 

of new registrations. Nevertheless, the sector will be much larger than what was understood only a few years earlier. 

In order to understand the growth trajectory 

of the sector better, this report divides the 

commercial drone sector into two types of 

small drone aircraft: consumer grade and 

professional grade. Consumer-grade, commercial drones have a wide range of prices, 

below US $10,000 with an average unit price 

of approximately $2,500. The professional 

grade, on the other hand, is typically priced 

above US $10,000 with an average unit price 

assumed to be around $25,000.25 For both 

consumer-grade and professional-grade 

drones, the average price has fallen over 

time, particularly over the last few years. Currently, the consumer grade dominates the 

commercial drone sector, with a market 

share approaching 91%. However, as the 

sector matures and the industry begins to 

consolidate, the share of consumer grade 

commercial drones is likely to decline, 

though it will still be dominant. By 2026, the 

FAA projects this sub-sector will have approximately 86% of the overall commercial 

small drone sector. 

 

Starting from a lower base of approximately 

59,000 aircraft registered in 2021, the professional-grade commercial small drone subsector stands to expand rapidly over time, 

reaching 115,000 in 2026—especially as 

newer and more sophisticated uses are identified, designed, and operationally planned 

and flown. If, for example, professionalgrade small drones meet criteria of operations, safety, and regulations, and if they satisfy economic and business principles and 

enter into the logistics chain via small package delivery, the growth in this sector will

likely be phenomenal. On the other hand, 

starting from a registration base (and not active/effective fleet) of 563,000 in 2021, consumer grade small drones are likely to grow 

over 744,000 by 2026. These numbers will 

be somewhat smaller if we use the effective/active number of drones as the basis for 

calculation instead of new registration. 

These growth trajectories could be even further enhanced by expanding operations in 

controlled airspaces, e.g., the LAANC system, which began authorization in May 

2017.26 LAANC is designed to facilitate small 

drone use of controlled airspace (i.e., Class 

B terminal airspace) in the NAS. While most 

of the near-term growth in commercial small 

drones will continue to come from consumergrade units (over 90%), the FAA anticipates 

a significant part will come from professionalgrade small drones as well. 

24 This is driven completely by the combined effects of projected underlying growth rates of cancellations, expiry, new registrations, and renewals.

25 Because of this wide range in prices between 

types of small drones in commercial activities, 

start-up costs for a business may vary between 

$2,500 and $25,000. 26 Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability (LAANC) [https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/uas_data_exchange/] automated the application/approval process for airspace authorizations. Requests submitted via 

FAA-approved UAS Service Suppliers (USS) are 

checked against airspace data in the FAA UAS 

Data Exchange, such as temporary flight restrictions (TFRs), Notice to Airmen (NOTAMS), 

and the UAS Facility Maps (UASFM). Approved 

requests thus provide the FAA/ATO visibility into 

where and when planned drone operations will 

take place. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

65

Unlike its recreational small drone counterpart, it is extremely difficult to put a floor on 

the growth of the commercial small drone 

sector due to its composition (i.e., consumer 

vs. professional grades) and the varying 

business opportunities and growth paths. As 

commercial small drones become operationally more efficient and safe, battery life expands, and integration continues (e.g., recent final rule involving operations over people; and remote ID), new business models 

will begin to develop, thus enhancing robust 

supply-side responses. These responses, in 

turn, will pull demand forces (e.g., consumer 

responses to receiving commercial packages, routine blood delivery to hospitals, and 

search-and-rescue operations) that are 

somewhat latent and in the experimental 

stage at present. Unlike a developed sector 

such as passenger air transportation, it is impossible to put a marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core demand) primarily driven by 

economic and demographic factors underlying this sector. Nevertheless, in this year’s 

forecast the FAA makes a provisional attempt to provide a “low” side for now, essentially capturing the intrinsic demand and 

making use of the calculation of effective/active fleet. In addition, we provide the likely or 

base scenario, together with the enormous 

potential embodied in the “high” scenarios, 

representing cumulative annual growth rates 

of 7% and 9%, respectively. As noted earlier, 

low scenarios are driven by two positive factors (i.e., new registration and renew+) and 

two negative factors (i.e., cancellations and 

expiry). Average annual growth rate corresponding to the low scenario is determined 

by the combined effect of both positive and 

negative factors, and at present is calculated 

to be approximately 1.6%. This is much 

smaller than both base and high scenarios 

and this is because effective/active count is 

driven to catch up with the new registrations 

trend. [See fn. #7 for further explanation pertaining to effective/active count for recreational registration]. 

Commercial small drones are currently used 

for numerous purposes. As the sector grows, 

the FAA anticipates there will be many more 

uses for, and much more use of, commercial 

small drones. This is increasingly evident, for 

example, from the successful implementation of the UAS Integration Pilot Program 

(IPP). [See www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/integration_pilot_program/ for more details] and continuation in 

BEYOND [see Section later on]. 

One way of identifying early trends in commercial small drone use is to analyze the 

waiver applications granted to small drone 

operators. Both the magnitude and relative 

composition of waiver types may indicate the 

direction of the commercial small drone sector as a whole. A breakdown of the waiver 

requests granted in December 2021 is 

shown in the chart below: 

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

66

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Submitted Withdrawn Disapproved Pending Approved

DroneZone Top 5 Requested Provisions 

(as of end of December 2021)

Night Operations Operations over People

BVLOS Operations Operational Limitation: Altitude

Operations from a Moving Vehicle

Beyond the daytime operation that is presently allowed under existing part 107 rules, 

expanding applications further requires waivers, to a large extent, for night operations as 

distinct from daylight operations (around 9 of 

every 10 granted waivers), and operations 

over people (around 1 of every 20 granted 

waivers). As noted earlier, approved rules 

will now allow night operations and some operations over people as part of routine operations no longer requiring waivers. There are 

also beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) 

waiver requests (around 14% of total requests) and limitations on altitude (around 

11% of total requests), for which waiver approvals are granted at a rate of 3.9% in both 

 

27 The rule was published in the Federal Register 

on January 15, 2021. Corrections to the final rule 

were published in the Federal Register on March 

10, 2021, delaying the effective date from March 

16, 2021 to April 21, 2021 [See: 

www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/operations_over_people/.]. 

cases. Many of these waivers are combined, 

and thus total waiver approvals (i.e., full + 

partial) granted (over 4,321 by December, 

2021) exceed 100%. 

Waivers are issued to facilitate business activities by small drones while preparing for 

the next round of regulations that will enable 

routine, more complex drone operations. 

Now that night operations and operations 

over people have been finalized,27 amending 

Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations 

part 107 (14 CFR part 107) by permitting the 

routine operation of small drones at night28 or 

over people under certain conditions,29 the 

28 See § 107.29. An operation at night was defined as an operation conducted between the end 

of evening civil twilight and the beginning of morning civil twilight, as published in the Air Almanac, 

converted to local time (ibid). 

29 See § 107.39. An operation over people was 

established as one in which a small remotely piloted aircraft passes over any part of any person 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

67

Agency is turning its focus to long term solutions that will eventually enable routine 

BVLOS fights without waivers.30 Analysis of 

the waiver applications allows the FAA to understand industry trends, one of many metrics essential for understanding and projecting the growth trajectory, course corrections, 

and growth trends of the sector. 

Nearly 60% of airspace authorizations and 

waiver requests were approved for controlled 

airspace at the end of December 2021. While 

over half were for Class D airspace (i.e., 

smaller airports with control towers), other 

classes were also requested and regularly 

flown.

Class B

26,471 

Class C

28,640 

Class D

86,238 

Class E

17,529 

Total Airspace 

Waiver/Authorizations 

Requests

Awaiting 

Decision

2,240 

Canceled / 

Denied

Approved 65,163 

98,233 

Total Airspace 

Waiver/Authorizations 

Processed

Finally, LAANC has been routinely providing 

auto-approval since its inception in May 

2017, and now covers 732 airports. It has 

provided over 1 million approvals: 545,074 

auto-approvals for airspace access requests 

from part 107 users, and 352,775 requests 

from recreational operators as defined by 49 

U.S.C. §4480931 and sending 102,837 for 

further coordination. Approvals thus total 

more than 1 million, 570,000 more since this 

 

who is not directly participating in the operation 

and who is not located under a covered structure 

or inside a stationary vehicle.

30 On June 9, 2021, the FAA initiated an Aviation 

Rulemaking Committee (ARC) to facilitate 

BVLOS in the NAS. [See www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/index.cfm/committee/browse/committeeID/837 for details.] Recently, UAS BVLOS 

ARC has provided recommendations to the FAA 

for performance-based regulatory requirements 

time last year. (See below.) LAANC authorizations are facilitated by the use of UAS Facility Maps (UASFM) that provide maximum 

allowed altitudes around airports where the 

FAA may authorize Part 107 UAS operations 

without additional safety analysis. [See 

faa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/in

dex.html?id=9c2e4406710048e19806ebf6a

06754ad.] The UAS facility maps are used to 

to normalize safe, scalable, economically viable, 

and environmentally advantageous BVLOS 

drone operations that are not under positive air 

traffic control (ATC) [see www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/media/UAS_BVLOS_ARC_FINAL_REPORT_03102022.pdf for the final report]

31 §44809 is strictly for recreational uses. [See 

www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/new_changes_recreational_uas/media/44809_authorization.pdf.] 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

68

inform requests for part 107 airspace authorizations and waivers in controlled airspace.

44809 AutoApproved

352,775 

Further 

Coordination

102,837 

107 AutoApproved

545,074 

LAANC Airspace Requests

Status of Survey 

The FAA has initiated a comprehensive survey of drones, the “Survey of UAS Operators.”32 The survey targets commercial, public safety, and recreational small drone operators within the United States.33 Recreational, commercial, and public safety UAS 

operators are identified via the aircraft registry and are randomly sent invitations to complete a questionnaire specific to their geographic location and operating type. Utilizing 

 

32 The FAA has received OMB approval for a new 

information collection (OMB# 2120-0797). For 

additional information, see www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewDocument?ref_nbr=202008-

2120-005. 33 Survey respondents are all individuals or organizations who own and operate small drones

within the United States. This does not include licensed remote pilots who pilot drones for other 

individuals or organizations. 

34 The section 44807 registry is used as the sample frame for sampling recreational operators. 

The part 107 (or Section 44809) registry is divided into two sample frames, commercial and 

public safety operators, by applying an algorithm 

the part 107 (commercial and public safety) 

and section 44809 (recreational) registries, 

Survey of UAS Operators invites small UAS 

operator to participate in the survey by completing a questionnaire.34 These invitation 

are randomly sent to operators within the two 

registries controlling for the U.S. County or 

the equivalent in which the registrant is registered and the type of operating: recreational, commercial, and public safety.35 This 

to a registrant’s data within the part 107 registry. 

These three frames serve as the bases for random sampling stratified by operator type. See following footnote for additional details in the survey 

design. 

35 The survey is designed as a stratified random 

sample with two strata: operator type and US 

county or the equivalent (such as parish or borough). Each cell, operator, and county pair is randomly sampled 30 times. If the cell has 30 or 

fewer registrants within it, the entire cell is sampled. See Supporting Statement B in the Information Collection Request (ICR) supporting docTotal: 1,000,686
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

69

survey method ensures a geographical representation of the operators and their behavior. 

The survey aims to collect drone flight behavior, fleet characteristics, commercial activities, and features of public safety programs. 

To accomplish this, the questionnaire asks 

all operator types about typical flight activity 

such as average time of flight, operation over 

a week, and activity in specific months; and 

the composition of their fleet, such as number of aircraft, propulsion type, and operability.36 Commercial and public safety operators 

who operate under part 107 are asked additional questions. Commercial operators are 

asked where they are operating, the industries in which they operate, and whether they 

intend to apply for a part 107 waiver. Public 

safety operators are asked about their drone 

program, if they share their program with 

other agencies or hire a commercial operator, and types of missions conducted. 

The FAA is currently conducting pilot studies 

for the Survey of UAS Operators, and anticipates completion by summer 2022. These pilot studies are used to improve the survey 

design, clarify the questionnaire, and increase statistical validity.37 The pilot studies 

are designed to reveal respondent activities 

during 2021. In late summer of 2022, the 

FAA plans to conduct a standardized survey 

regarding 2022 behavior. The FAA plans to 

publish the results of the 2022 standardized 

survey in the following year’s Aerospace 

 

uments at www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewDocument?ref_nbr=202008-2120-005 for additional information regarding the survey design. 

36 The survey questionnaire is administered 

through Survey Monkey, and invitations are sent 

to selected participants through an FAA email. 

Questionnaire completion time ranged from 5 to 

10 minutes, depending on operator type. All three 

types were asked identical questions regarding 

flight behavior and fleet. Only commercial and 

Forecast.38 The Survey of UAS Operators is 

expected to be conducted annually, with the 

results published in the following year’s Aerospace Forecast. 

The FAA plans to use the information from 

the survey to paint a comprehensive picture 

of small drone activity throughout the NAS 

and how this activity is expected to change 

over time. This includes developing a geographical density estimate of small drone activity across the United States, and the 

change in activity over the course of a year. 

The annual survey is expected to become an 

additional data source for developing the 

small drone forecasts after multiple years of 

public safety operators have additional question 

following the flight behavior and fleet questions. 

37 Pilot studies include several studies of sampling and nonresponse bias as well as testing 

several aspects of the questionnaire. 

38 The data from the 2022 Survey of UAS Operators is expected to appear in a supplement to the 

Aerospace Forecast 2023-2043. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

70

survey data have been collected.39 Moreover, the fleet data collected from the survey 

should support forecasting at the county 

level and thus increase the granularity of the 

small drone forecast. Overall, the Survey of 

UAS Operators is expected to increase the 

data available to FAA forecasters and the 

drone industry as it becomes a standard 

product of the FAA.

Remote Pilot Forecast

An important final metric in commercial small 

drones is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. RPs are used primarily to facilitate 

commercial and public use small drone 

flights. As of December 2021, 254,850 RP 

certifications had been issued, an increase of 

approximately 52,000 from the same time 

last year (2020) and slightly higher than the 

year before (2019).40 

Part 107 certifications require completing a 

multi-step process, beginning with obtaining 

an FAA tracking number via the creation of 

an Integrated Airman Certification and Rating Application (IACRA) profile prior to registering for a knowledge test. Following this initial step, scheduling and passing the initial 

aeronautical knowledge test at a Knowledge 

Testing Center is required. Provided that one 

has passed this test, the applicant is required 

to fill out FAA Form 8710-13 in IACRA. A 

confirmation email is sent when an applicant 

has completed the necessary Transportation 

Security Administration (TSA) security background check. This email contains instructions for printing a copy of the temporary remote pilot certificate from IACRA. A permanent remote pilot certificate is sent via mail 

once all other FAA-internal processing is 

 

39 The FAA has authorization to conduct the Survey of UAS Operators through 2023 under the 

current information collection authorization from 

OMB. The FAA anticipates the renewal of the survey in 2024 and to continue the survey annually 

in perpetuity.

complete. An RP certificate is valid for two 

years, and certificate holders must pass a recurrent knowledge test every two years at a 

Knowledge Testing Center. It is required that 

RPs carry their certificate whenever flying a 

small drone. 

Certifications for part 61 operators, on the 

other hand, require an applicant to hold a pilot certificate issued under 14 CFR part 61, 

and to have completed a flight review within 

the previous 24 months. Since part 61 operators already have IACRA profiles established, they are required to complete, like 

part 107 operators, FAA Form 8710-13 in 

IACRA. Upon completion of this form, submission of proof of current flight review, and 

submission of proof of online course completion, part 61 operators are required to meet 

with FAA representatives at the FAA Flight 

Standards District Office (FSDO), or with an 

FAA-designated pilot examiner (DPE), or an 

airman certification representative (ACR) or 

an FAA-certificated flight instructor (CFI), 

who issues the RP certificate to the part 61 

operator. Like their part 107 counterparts, 

certificates for part 61 operators are valid for 

2 years and require renewal. [See 

40 In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who 

passed the initial knowledge test (or part 107), 

plus current traditional pilots who took online 

training in lieu of the knowledge test (or part 61). 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

71

www.faa.gov/uas/commercial_operators/become_a_drone_pilot/ for more details.] 

Following the process above, the FAA classifies RPs into two categories: 

• those who do not hold any pilot certificate 

other than the part 107, or Remote Pilot 

Only; and 

• those who hold a part 61 certificate and a 

part 107 certificate, or Part 61 and Remote Pilot. 

27.68%

72.32%

Distribution of Remote Pilots

Remote Pilot (Part 61 and Part 107 Certificate)

Remote Pilot (Part 107 Only)

Over 70% of the RPs are part 107 RPs only. 

Over 90% of those who took the exam 

passed and obtained RP certification. A cumulative density distribution of remote pilots 

by zip codes in 2021 is provided in the map 

below.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

72

The RP forecasts presented below are 

based on three primary data sources: (a) 

trends in total RPs; (b) renewal trends; and 

(c) trends in commercial small drone registration and forecasts of fleet. In this context, 

it is important to note that the empirical relationship between trends in RP and commercial/part 107 small drone registration, particularly new registration, appear to hold despite expiry, cancellations and renewal. 

Given the trends in registration and our forecast of the commercial small drone fleet (i.e., 

base forecasts), the FAA assumes that one 

pilot is likely to handle 2.38 units of commercial small drone aircraft, the same as the previous two years. 

Using these assumptions and combined with 

the base scenario of the commercial small 

drone forecast, we project RPs in the graph 

below. Last year, the FAA projected RPs to 

be approximately 248,200 by the end of 

2021. Actual registrations by the end of 2021 

totaled 254,850 (or more than 6,800 from last 

year’s projection) thus actual exceeding last

year’s projection by 2.68%.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

73

255 

294 

319 337 351 361 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Year

Remote Pilot Forecast 

(in thousands)

2.38 UAS per RPA

Given the actual numbers at the end of 2021, 

RPs are set to experience tremendous 

growth following the growth trends of the 

commercial small drone sector. Starting from 

the base of 254,850 RPs in 2021, commercial activities may require over 361,000 RPs 

in five years, a 1.4-fold increase that may 

provide tremendous opportunities for growth 

in employment—over 100,000 new RP opportunities—associated with commercial and 

public use activities of small drones. Potential for RPs may enhance even more if larger 

drones are used in commercial activities and 

advanced air mobility (AAM) becomes a reality in the near future. 

COVID-19 and Its Impact on sUAS

The chart below summarizes how COVID-19

may have impacted three areas of registration. During the prolonged and partial economic shut-downs during March – December 

2020 and January – December 2021, respectively, it is clear that commercial facets 

of small drone operations, i.e., part 107 and 

RP registrations, were impacted negatively 

during 2020. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

74

33%

-18%

-5%

-24%

7%

31%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Recreational Registrations Part 107 Registrations Remote Pilot Registrations

Trends in Registrations: 

March 2nd - December 28th (2021 versus 2020 versus 2019)

March 2nd - December 28th (2020 versus 2019)

March 2nd - December 28th (2021 versus 2020)

Part 107 registrations dropped by over 18% 

in 2020 compared to the prior year, but recovered in 2021 with an increase of 7%. RP 

registrations dropped by 5% in 2020, followed by a 31% increase in 2021. Interestingly, the registration of recreational users increased by almost 33% during the past year 

(2020) in comparison to the year before; 

however, recreational user registration went 

down by 24% in the second year of the pandemic, in comparison with the first year. 

While it is quite possible that these drops/increases were led by developments within the 

Part 107 community, we believe that at least 

some of the observed drops/increases were 

caused primarily by COVID-19. As the economy slowed down considerably, the use of 

commercial small drones (and, correspondingly, the use of RPs), may have decreased 

in the first year, followed by economic adjustments in the following year that allowed for 

increased commercial use. On the other 

hand, the economic slowdown may have afforded more time to people working from 

home to experiment with recreational use of 

small drones; this may have caused higher 

recreational registration in the first year of the 

pandemic in comparison to the prior year. 

The situation seems to have reversed during 

2021, where recreational registrations 

dropped by 24%, while part 107 and RP registrations bounced back by 7% and 31%, respectively, in comparison to the prior year. 

The changing nature of registrations, and 

subsequently forecasts, offers challenges 

and opportunities for integration of small

drones into the NAS.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

75

IPP to BEYOND and PSP

One such integration challenge was addressed under the UAS Integration Pilot Program (IPP). Beginning in 2017, the IPP 

brought state, local, and tribal governments 

together with private sector entities, such as 

UAS operators or manufacturers, to test and 

evaluate the integration of civil and public 

drone operations into the NAS. The IPP program concluded on October 25, 2020 [See 

www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/integration_pilot_program/ for more details.] 

The FAA launched a new program called BEYOND to continue working on specific challenges of drone integration by: 

• identifying ways to balance local and

national interests related to drone integration;

• improving communications with local, 

state and tribal jurisdictions; 

• addressing security and privacy risks; 

and 

• accelerating the approval of operations that currently require special authorizations.

BEYOND started on October 26, 2020 to 

continue the partnership activities with eight 

 

of the nine IPP participants. [See 

www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/beyond/.] 

In addition to these programs, 

the FAA launched the UAS Partnership for 

Safety Plan (PSP) initiative in December 

2016 to address and advance complex drone 

operational capabilities. The program establishes a working relationship between the 

FAA and industry to help facilitate the full integration of drones into the NAS. [See 

www.faa.gov/uas/programs_partnerships/psp/ for more details.]41 

Since their beginning, these programs have 

facilitated numerous activities by the participants. For example, under the programs, 

participants have logged over 36,800 flights 

using over 2,300 small drones, accumulating 

over 9,100 hours of flight time. Activities under both BEYOND and the PSP continue. 

Distribution of the combined flight counts and 

corresponding total flight hours over time are 

given, respectively, in the following charts: 

41 In order to assist and accommodate other 

members outside these programs, the FAA has 

created a category called “voluntary reporting.” 

Under this program, members outside BEYOND 

and PSP can volunteer their information which is 

then aggregated with IPP, BEYOND, and PSP information and presented in this section. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

76

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Number of Flgiht Counts

Flight Counts Aggregated Across All Programs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Number of Flgiht Hours

Flight Hours Aggregated Across All Programs

Based on the above information, average 

flight time over the years across all programs 

has stood at approximately 15 minutes.42 

 

42 This is an important metric to understand the 

scope of operational activities of drones across 

the NAS. When widely operational, i.e., outside 

BEYOND and PSP, this will have implications in 

Distribution of flight times during the period is 

provided in the graph below. Given that BEterms of capital investment in infrastructure, planning for personnel, and unmanned traffic management (or UTM) in the future. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

77

YOND and PSP programs are presently operational and active, average flight times are 

expected to increase over time. 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Minutes

Average Flight Times

Of around 36,850 total flights over the lives 

of these programs, a large majority of the 

flights have been geared towards package 

delivery (73%), thus signifying the commercial importance of this mission. Package delivery flights are followed by infrastructure inspection, both linear and non-linear, accounting together for over 14%; and other 

activities such as public safety (7.7%) and research/testing (4.4%). This composition provides some guidance in terms of likely forecasts and growth trajectory of the drone sector in the near future. The table below summarizes the types of missions and corresponding flight counts aggregated under all 

three programs. 

Mission Type Flight Count

Agricultural Operations 125

Infrastructure Inspection (Linear) 2,047

Infrastructure Inspection (Non-Linear) 3,176

Media 11

Package Delivery 26,859

Public Safety 2,835

Research/Testing 1,613

Surveillance 183

Grand Total 36,849

Flight Counts by Mission Type
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

78

All these activities take place in different 

types of airspace classes, thus signifying the 

importance of drone integration into the NAS. 

Furthermore, these classes of airspace intersect with different types of geographic locations, broadly captured under assembly, rural, suburban and urban.43 The table below 

summarizes airspace usage by aggregated 

location within the NAS. 

Airspace Classes Assembly Rural Suburban Urban Grand Total

Class B 50 65 1,233 1,348

Class B, Class G 50 50

Class C, Class G 1 1 2

Class D 3 534 1,816 2 2,355

Class D, Class G 486 486

Class G 28 11,618 10,102 5,463 27,211

Class G, SUA 1 1

NA 1,867 3,529 5,396

Grand Total 81 14,135 15,447 7,186 36,849

*NA: Not Available or Reported

Total Flight Counts by Geographic Locations and Use of Airspaces

Clearly, the most used airspace is Class G 

(74%), and it is distributed primarily in rural 

(43%) and suburban (37%) areas, followed 

by urban areas (20%). Class D and B are increasingly used while intersections of other 

classes, (e.g., Class D/G, and Class B/G), 

are also observed. 

Finally, participants under all three programs 

undertake the above activities using different 

operating rules. The table below summarizes 

flight counts under these rules: 

 

43 “Assembly” is short for “open-air assembly”. An 

open-air assembly is generally understood as a dense 

gathering of people in the open, usually associated 

with concert venues, sporting events, parks, and 

beaches during certain events. Such assemblies are 

usually associated with public spaces. [See 

www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_107-2A.pdf for more details.]
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

79

Operating Rules Flight Count

Airspace 931

BVLOS w/o VO 110

BVLOS w/VO 25,373

Multiple UA 57

Night Operations 101

OOP 3,365

OOP; OOMV 187

VLOS 2,223

UNK* 4,502

Grand Total 36,849

*UNK: Not documented/Not reported

Flight Counts by Operating Rules

As noted earlier, one of the primary focuses 

of the BEYOND program is to accelerate the 

approval of operations that currently require 

special authorizations (or waivers). On the 

other hand, advancing complex operations 

has been the key focus of the PSP program. 

Given these, it is quite natural that BVLOS is 

the predominant operating rule under all 

three programs, accounting for almost 70% 

of total flight counts. The previous table 

shows that the majority of flights are conducted with a visual observer (VO), while 

only 0.2% of flights are conducted without a 

VO. 44 For operations requiring waivers, i.e., 

multiple UA, night operations, operations 

over people (OOP), operations over moving 

vehicles (OOMV)), airspace and altitude are 

facilitated and observed across programs. 

Thus the table above demonstrates the underlying focus of these programs in facilitating different operating rules proposed and 

performed by the participating members. Finally, “UNK” (unknown) stands for flights that 

had not reported and/or where there was 

very little documentation to report. 

 

Large UAS

Drones weighing 55 pounds or greater cannot be operated under part 107 or as recreational remotely piloted aircraft. These large 

drones must be registered using the existing 

 

aircraft registration process and operated under a section 49 U.S.C. § 44807 exemption 

or public aircraft operator (PAO) certification. 

[See www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/certification/section_44807/ for more 

44 BVLOS with VO has numerous classifications 

within it; e.g., BVLOS w/VO for airspace; BVLOS 

for operating multiple drones; BVLOS w/VO for 

night operations; BVLOS w/VO for operations 

over people, moving vehicles, and visibility. 

These are combined under the broad category of 

“BVLOS w/VO” in the table. Following on BVLOS 

Final Report (see fn. #19) from the ARC, it is anticipated that regulatory environment will evolve 

in the near future. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

80

details.]45 At present, many of these large 

drones are flown within the NAS by government entities, but commercial operators have 

steadily increased in 2021, with the majority 

of new large drone operators active in agricultural spraying markets. In order to calculate active large drones in the NAS, we employ a multitude of data from various 

sources: 

• COA Online system and its successor CAPS or COA Application Processing System [see 

www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/aaim/organizations/uas/coa]; 

• MITRE’s Threaded Track infusing 

data from different sources [see 

www.mitre.org/publications/technical-papers/threaded-track-geospatial-data-fusion-for-aircraft-flight-trajectories];

• FAA’s Performance Data Analysis 

and Reporting Systems (PDARS) 

[see www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/perf_tools]; 

• FAA’s Aircraft Registry [see 

www.faa.gov/licenses_certificates/aircraft_certification/aircraft_registry/];

• Published decisions on 44807 exemption applications; and 

• Notices to Airmen (NOTAM).

 

Combining these data sources, the FAA estimates that 285 lUAS or large drones were 

operating in 2021. However, these estimates 

are likely the lower bound since a growing 

number of agricultural large drones are operating in close proximity to the ground (i.e., 

likely below 400 feet above ground level 

(AGL)) and are not captured by this data. The 

exemptions and registration of these agricultural spraying large drones have increased 

significantly in 2021 and are likely to grow 

rapidly over the next five years. However, 

these agricultural spraying large drones will 

have little effect on air traffic in the NAS given 

their location away from busy traditionally-piloted air traffic and low altitude traffic. 

Large drones operated by military and civilian agencies in the NAS are expected to 

grow at a steady pace over the next five 

years. Currently, military aircraft and military 

contractors constitute the majority of large 

drone activity in airspace above 400 feet 

AGL and are likely to remain the predominant 

operators over the forecast time horizon. 

In 2021, 51 companies were granted FAA 49 

U.S.C. § 44807 exemptions for commercial 

drones with weights above 55lbs, more than 

double the exemptions granted in 2020. 

Some of these companies were granted multiple exemptions. Over 92 percent of the new 

44807 exemptions for large drones were 

granted for use in agricultural spraying.46

This sharp increase in the number of new exemptions granted in 2021, as well as the vast 

majority granted to agricultural spraying 

45 Large drones operated by the military or a military contractor are operated under authority of 

the Department of Defense. Military large drones 

are not required to be registered in the public aircraft registry. 

46 Although 92 percent of the 44807 exemptions 

are for agricultural spraying, only 9 percent of the 

public aircraft registrations were linked to agricultural large drones in 2021. However, registered 

agricultural large drones more than doubled between 2020 and 2021, a trend that started in 

2019. This suggests that registration of large 

drones could lag behind grants of 44807 exemptions. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

81

companies, signals regulatory standardization around the use of large drones operating 

close to ground level and outside of populated areas, such as in the case of agricultural spraying. 

The registration, in the public aircraft registry, 

of heavier-than-air, remotely piloted aircraft 

over 55lbs has increased by 56 percent, from 

510 at the end of 2020 to 784 at the end of 

2021. Three hundred and twenty-one (321) 

large drones were registered or renewed in 

2021, up 52 percent from 2020, while the delisted and expired registrations fell by 39 percent from 128 in 2020 to 78 in 2021. This has 

led to a 50 percent increase in large drones 

registered in the public aircraft registry.

Although 784 large drones are registered in 

the public aircraft registry, only 12 percent of 

those registered large drones have been observed in flight.47 As such, a sizable portion 

of large drone operators are not active in the 

NAS due to safety or regulatory concerns or 

because they only operate close to the 

ground or in private airfields. Thus, the vast 

majority of registered large drones are unlikely to come in contact with air traffic control 

(ATC). For the purposes of this forecast, the 

FAA limits the projected large drone activity 

to aircraft operating in airspace where contact with other large drones or traditionallypiloted aircraft is likely.

Year Active L-UAS Number of Flights

Historical

2017 159 7,066

2018 172 7,223

2019 206 7,360

2020 255 7,144

2021 285 7,519

Forecast

2022 332 8,757

2023 391 10,325

2024 463 12,223

2025 528 13,930

2026 568 14,981

Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Forecast - 5 Years

 

47 The statistic is based on tail numbers from MITRE’s thread tracking data and manufacturer/model characteristics from the public aircraft 

registry. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

82

Combining the baseline from military and civilian agencies and projections of commercial exemptions from the FAA, large drones 

are estimated to have increased from 255 in 

2020 to 285 in 2021; they are expected to 

continue increasing at a steady pace, 

through 2026, to 568 aircraft. This is due to 

an increase in the commercial and research 

applications of large drones. However, the 

sunset of drone exemptions under section 

44807 in September of 2023 could create 

headwinds for further deployment of large 

drones. Operators are likely to scale back investment in new large drones as their ability 

to operate these aircraft beyond 2025, assuming they receive renewals in 2023, becomes uncertain. Extending or replacing the 

44807 exemptions before 2025 would likely 

remove these obstacles to continued fleet 

expansion.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Aircraft

Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Operating in the NAS

Estimated Forecast

Corresponding to the active large drone fleet, 

the number of large drone flights increased 

from an estimated 7,144 in 2020 to 7,519 in 

2021.48 This indicates that the utilization of 

large drones is falling compared to previous 

years.49 The increase in lUAS or the large 

drone fleet and decreasing aircraft utilization 

suggests that lUAS or large drones are still 

at an early stage of development.

 

However, the sharp increase in 44807 exemptions granted, and the healthy increase 

in registered large drones in the public aircraft registry suggest that large drone operators have shrugged off the uncertainty of the 

2020 – 2021 recession, which should increase investment in new aircraft over the 

next five years. As such, the forecast has 

been adjusted upward to reflect the growth 

48 Estimates of 2021 large drone flights are based 

on new methodology. The new algorithm decreases the misidentification of traditionally-piloted aviation as large drones. . Over 70% of the 

observed flights are conducted by registered 

large drones operating under a variety of authorities: 44807 exemptions, public aircraft operators 

(PAO), or the Department of Defense. 

49 Utilization is calculated as lUAS flights divided 

by active lUAS or large drones. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

83

path from before the pandemic-related recession, which is likely a more accurate reflection of future outcomes, barring an economic downturn in the near future.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Flights

Flights of Larger UAS (>55 lbs) Operating in the NAS

Estimated Forecast

Advanced Air Mobility 

In September 2017, NASA launched a market study for a segment crossing over some 

functions of drones discussed above. This 

segment of piloted and autonomous vehicles, broadly called AAM, is defined as “a 

safe and efficient system for air passenger 

and cargo transportation, inclusive of small 

package delivery and other urban drone services, which supports a mix of 

onboard/ground-piloted and increasinglyautonomous operations.”50 [See 

www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-embraces-urbanair-mobility.] Building on the UAM concept by 

 

50 The community is in the process of establishing nomenclature. Only recently, the community-at-large 

has moved on to coining earlier-used “urban air mobility” (UAM) as “advanced air mobility” (AAM) to 

incorporating use cases not specific to operations in an urban environment, the FAA defines the scope of AAM as follows [See 

www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/urban_air_mobility/ ): 

• Commercial Inter-city (Longer 

Range/Thin Haul); 

• Cargo Delivery; 

• Public Services; and 

• Private / Recreational Vehicles

broaden its operational scope, technical characteristics, economic opportunities, and regulatory framework. Under this broad characterization, UAM is considered a subset of AAM. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

84

AAM technology presents considerable opportunities for economic growth over the 

coming decades. Markets for AAM services, 

such as package delivery by drone or larger 

autonomous or remotely piloted cargo delivery, airport shuttling (or services along the 

fixed routes between urban routes to airports), or traditionally-piloted, remotely-piloted, or autonomous passenger shuttles or 

air taxis (i.e., on-demand point-to-point services) have significant potential both in the 

United States and globally. For example, 

package or larger cargo delivery is the AAM 

service that is most likely to experience economic growth in the next decade. By 2030, 

package delivery is likely to be profitable at a 

price point of $4.20 per delivery, with a fleet 

of 40,000 vehicles completing 500 million deliveries per year.51 

Passenger services, on the other hand, 

promise larger markets for AAM services, but 

safety challenges, infrastructure, public acceptance, and evolving technology leading to 

market uncertainties may slow the pace of 

AAM’s penetration into this segment of the 

market. Nevertheless, flight testing continues 

to elucidate the performance dynamics of 

electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL). For example, Joby Aviation announced in July 2021 that it has completed a 

test flight which surpassed 150 miles on a 

single charge with its eVTOL aircraft. The 

flight was remotely piloted and completed 11 

laps of a predefined circuit, covering a total 

distance of 154.6 statute miles with a total air 

time of 1 hour and 17 minutes.52 Additionally, 

 

in fall 2021, under NASA’s AAM National 

Campaign, Joby Aviation conducted further 

flight tests which produced data on its eVTOL 

aircraft performance and acoustic characteristics. 53 The data was shared with NASA to 

support its modeling and simulation and 

AAM research efforts. The flight tests also 

helped evaluate NASA’s flight safety and airworthiness processes to approve flight testing participants and establish a baseline and 

protocols for future testing.

The increasing number of flight tests and 

data collection are paving the way for type 

certification of eVTOL aircraft. In 2020, Joby 

became the first eVTOL company to sign a 

G-1 issue paper to define a certification basis 

with the FAA, and in February 2022 Joby announced it started certification testing observed by an on-site FAA Designated Engineering Representative (DER). The test will 

evaluate the material strength of its eVTOL 

components, and is an important step in obtaining FAA aircraft type certification.54 It is 

also worth noting that Joby has begun the 

process to obtain an FAA part 135 air carrier 

certificate, which it expects to receive in 

2022, to formalize its status as an eVTOL airline.

There is also eVTOL type certification progress globally. In February 2022, Eve Urban 

Air Mobility, which plans to operate eVTOL 

flights in Brazil and in Latin America, formalized the process for obtaining type certification from the National Civil Aviation Agency 

– Brazil for its eVTOL aircraft (with deliveries 

51 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. (See www.nasa.gov/uamgc) 

52 www.jobyaviation.com/news/joby-completesflight-of-more-than-150-miles/

53 NASA launched a National Campaign in March 

2020 to promote public confidence and accelerate the realization of emerging aviation markets 

for passenger and cargo transportation in urban, 

suburban, rural, and regional environments. [See 

www.nasa.gov/aamnationalcampaign for more 

details.]

54 www.jobyaviation.com/news/joby-begins-firstconformity-testing-enters-next-phase-certification-process/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

85

expected to start in 2026). 55 German air taxi 

manufacturer, Volocopter, obtained a production organization approval (POA) from 

the European Union Aviation Safety Agency 

(EASA).56 Recently, Volocopter laid out an 

urban transportation and mobility roadmap 

enabling tourist routes within the Marina Bay 

area and to nearby regional economic centers from Singapore in just 30 minutes.57 In a 

similar vein, Joby Aviation, in collaboration 

with ST Telecom, signed a partnership on 

February 6, 2022 to introduce aerial ridesharing services to cities and communities in 

South Korea.58 Airbus expects its UAM aircraft to meet EASA certification standards 

(EASA SC-VTOL Enhanced Category) and 

receive type certification around 2025.59

One of the major challenges of eVTOL entering into the marketplace is infrastructure. In 

order to increase accessibility of vertiports 

for AAM services, air taxi operators have 

been evaluating different approaches to expand the potential network of vertiports or 

takeoff and landing areas (TOLAs). In 2021, 

both Joby and Archer entered into partnerships with parking garage operator REEF 

Technology with the goal of running air taxi 

operations from the rooftops of redesigned 

parking garages.60 

The infrastructure constraint—the availability 

of desirable TOLAs—will be a challenge for 

scaling AAM operations, as they require 

 

community acceptance and affect issues relating to social equity and noise and environmental impacts. NASA is leading research in 

these areas, and in 2021 it released a report 

with NUAIR (Northeast UAS Airspace Integration Research Alliance, Inc.) and industry 

describing a concept of operations for high 

density vertiport operations.61 Recently, the 

FAA issued an engineering brief providing interim guidance to airport owner/operators 

and their support staff for the design of vertiports for vertical takeoff and landing operations [see www.faa.gov/airports/engineering/engineering_briefs/drafts/ for more details].

Other than eVTOL operators, some companies are focusing on developing the infrastructure needs which require partnering with 

local governments and property owners to locate and acquire sites for future vertiports. 

For example, Urban-Air Port, a UK-based 

startup, announced in January 2022 that it 

plans to develop 200 vertiports for eVTOL 

flights in 65 cities to accommodate the anticipated AAM demand.62

Due to uncertainties associated with numerous issues such as type certification and infrastructure, market estimation for the overall 

sector has been quite wide. The total available market for passenger services is estimated to be $500 billion in the United States, 

but AAM is unlikely to garner more than $2.5 

55 Eve Urban Air Mobility is an Embraer company 

planning to become public through a merger with 

a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), 

as predecessors Joby, Archer, Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace have.

56www.aerospace-technology.com/news/volocopter-poa-easa-evtol/

57volocopter-statics.azureedge.net/content/uploads/220209_Volocopter_SingaporeRoadmap.pdf for more details. 

58 See ransportup.com/category/headlinesbreaking-news/vehicles-manufactures/ 

59 www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-09-airbus-reveals-the-next-generation-of-cityairbus

60www.jobyaviation.com/news/joby-aviation-announces-infrastructure-partnership/

61ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20210016168/downloads/20210016168_MJohnson_VertiportAtmtnConOpsRprt_final_corrected.pdf

62dronedj.com/2022/01/26/urban-air-ports-to-create-200-evtol-vertiports-for-aam-service/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

86

billion of this market in the near term, as one 

study estimates.63 On the upside of the estimation, a recent study conducted by Deloitte 

and the Aerospace Industries Association 

(AIA) estimates the AAM market in the US to 

reach approximately US $115 billion by 

2035, equivalent to 30% of the present US 

commercial air transportation market.64 Of 

that total, US $57 billion is expected to originate in passenger air mobility, while an 

equivalent amount is expected to come from 

the cargo market.

Market dynamics underlying AAM are complex, numerous, and quickly evolving. Although COVID-19 has led to an increased 

adoption of virtual work versus commuting 

and business travel, persistence of this trend 

in the long-run is mired in uncertainty.65 Socioeconomic changes such as population 

shifts from urban to suburban or rural areas 

(i.e., de-urbanization) could also affect the 

various AAM use cases differently. AAM services, both cargo and passenger, may appear to be unprofitable in the near future, like 

many other services in the beginning. The 

AAM passenger industry is likely to expand 

due to an inflow of venture capital and experimental services exploring market opportunities. For example, following the numerous 

 

SPAC mergers for AAM companies last year, 

which injected significant capital to further 

their development and commercialization efforts, Wisk Aero secured an additional $450 

million investment from Boeing in January 

2022. Volocopter has also recently entered 

into an agreement that may provide up to $1 

billion in financing.66 Furthermore, eVTOL 

operators like Joby are expanding partnerships to operate air taxis in international markets67 and many companies are experiencing rising interest and increased orders of 

their eVTOL aircraft, both in the US and globally.68 

Airport shuttles and other fixed-route passenger services are the AAM passenger services most likely to gain economic traction in 

the coming decade. Optimistic reports project the AAM passenger industry to have 

23,000 aircraft with 740 million enplanements per year at a price of around $30 per 

trip by 2030.69 However, several other studies have reported more conservative estimates, arguing that market penetration is 

likely to be limited to a handful of major metropolitan areas where geography and economic conditions are conducive to AAM market development. As such, estimates by 

KMPG predict 60.4 million enplanements by 

63 UAM Market Study – Technical Out Brief, Oct. 

2018, Booz-Allen-Hamilton and NASA. [See 

ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20190001472.pdf.

] 

64www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/aerospace-defense/advanced-air mobility.html?id=us:2el:3pr:4diER6839:5awa:012621:

&pkid=1007244

65 Road congestion and associated opportunity 

cost in commuting around metro areas provided 

the most powerful boon for economic and financial justifications for AAM passenger services. 

However, changed working pattern and working 

from home (WFH) location due to COVID19 put 

a damper on that earlier economic trade-off, at 

least in the near-term. 

66 www.flyingmag.com/volocopter-partners-withacg-to-provide-1-billion-in-financing-solutions/ 67 www.forbes.com/sites/catherinewang/2022/02/09/heads-up-sk-telecomjoins-forces-with-joby-aviation-to-launch-flyingtaxis-in-south-korea/?sh=41b6642615c8 68 dronedj.com/2022/01/20/japanese-helicopterservice-provider-orders-50-air-taxis-from-ehang/

and https://eveairmobility.com/eve-and-bristowenter-partnership-to-develop-uam-capabilitieswith-an-order-of-up-to-100-evtols/

69 Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study, Nov. 

2018, NASA. [See www.nasa.gov/uamgc.] 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

87

2030 and a much smaller industry size.70

Similarly, Roland Berger estimates a fleet of 

only 12,000 passenger drones by 2030.71

However, given the current safety and technology challenges, even these projections 

may be optimistic. Using airport shuttle and 

air taxi as the scope, a recent study concluded that AAM passenger services could 

have a daily demand of 82,000 passengers 

served by approximately 4,000 four to fiveseater aircraft in the US. Baselining in the 

most conservative scenario, these services 

may yield an annual market valuation of $2.5 

billion72. 

Given the enormous economic potential underlying the AAM sector, coordination led by 

the FAA, including collaborations with NASA

and industry, is allowing numerous integration activities to take place presently. For example, under NASA’s National Campaign 

(NC), working groups drawn from the FAA, 

NASA, and numerous stakeholders are focusing on understanding the four areas of 

AAM integration: aircraft, airspace, community integration, and cross-cutting areas. 

Complimenting this effort, the FAA created 

an internal AAM Integration Executive Council, and is actively working with internal and 

external stakeholders to understand the nature, scope, and likely evolutions of AAM. 

[See www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/urban_air_mobility/.] The FAA also issued a concept of operations (CONOPS) in 

June 2020, and is likely to publish a strategic 

implementation framework in the near future. 

 

[See nari.arc.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/UAM_ConOps_v1.0.pdf.] Furthermore, NASA issued AAM CONOPS corresponding to slightly advanced maturity levels—Urban Air Mobility Maturity Level 4 recently. [See ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20205011091 for more details.]

All these activities are facilitating an operational framework for gradual integration of 

AAM into the NAS; e.g., flight testing of AAM 

vehicles [see www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/features/nasa-begins-air-mobilitycampaign.html], regulatory coordination for 

safety, traffic management, and international harmonization with other agencies, 

e.g., European Union Aviation Safety 

Agency (EASA) leading to type certifications 

[e.g.,www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/certification/]. 

These proactive steps are positioning the 

AAM industry positively towards realizing 

market opportunities. In December 2020, for 

example, Joby Aviation received the first airworthiness approval by the US Air Force 

(USAF) for an eVTOL aircraft under Agility 

Prime, and it recently reached an agreement 

with the FAA to certify its aircraft using the 

FAA’s part 23 requirements along with special conditions for eVTOL aircraft.73 Joby Aviation plans to launch air taxi services in the 

US by 2023. Lilium GMBH, a German company, is developing an eVTOL transport network centered on Lake Nona in Orlando, 

Florida. It has partnered with the City of Or70 Getting Mobility Off the Ground, 2019, KPMG 

(see institutes.kpmg.us/manufacturing-institute/articles/2019/getting-mobility-off-theground.html). 

71 Urban Air Mobility: The rise of a new mode of 

transportation, Nov. 2018, Roland Berger. (See 

www.rolandberger.com/en/Publications/Passenger-drones-ready-for-take-off.html.) 

72 Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and 

Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air 

Taxi Markets. [See escholarship.org/uc/item/4b3998tw for more details.] 73www.aviationtoday.com/2021/02/09/jobyagrees-evtol-certification-requirements-faa/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

88

lando and a real estate development company to establish a vertiport hub in Lake 

Nona by 2025. It will be used for regional, inter-city air mobility services, with travel distances of up to 186 miles in 60 minutes by 

Lilium Jet aircraft currently under development.74

The trend is somewhat similar at the international level as well. For example, EHang, a 

Chinese manufacturer of autonomous aerial 

vehicles (AAVs), established a strategic partnership with UAM pilot cities in Spain, Austria, and China in 2020.75 It also conducted 

demonstration flights in South Korea with its 

two-passenger autonomous aerial vehicle, 

the EHang 216. German AAM companies, 

Lilium and Volocopter, are also working to 

launch passenger air transport services 

within the next few years. Volocopter completed demonstration air taxi flights in Singapore in 2019 and began to sell tickets for 

commercial service, expected to start in Singapore by 2023.76 Volocopter has also announced plans to introduce air taxi services 

in the US.

AAM services are likely to face stiff competition from technological advances in industries with close substitutes, such as ground 

transportation (i.e., emerging automated solutions on increasingly electric-powered vehicles). Furthermore, economic and financial 

tradeoffs underlying the emergence of AAM 

may have changed following COVID-19, 

changing travel patterns and perhaps longterm living arrangements. Finally, the high 

costs of urban infrastructure and potential 

 

74lilium.com/newsroom-detail/lilium-partnerswith-tavistock-and-orlando 75 www.ehang.com/news/617.html 76www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-

09/first-electric-air-taxis-set-to-fly-in-singaporeby-2023

community concerns pose challenges for 

AAM adoption. Future AAM operators must 

also prepare to comply with new operating 

requirements and other regulations yet to 

come.

Despite these challenges, state, local, and 

regional governments are aligning themselves with the manufacturers and likely operators. For example, the city of Los Angeles 

announced the creation of its Urban Air Mobility Partnership in December 2020. It is a 

public-private partnership, called Urban 

Movement Labs that will evaluate barriers 

and solutions now towards facilitating air taxi 

services in Los Angeles by 2023.77 Other entities, including the Canadian AAM Consortium (CAAM,) have also studied the impacts 

of AAM on regional economies.78 

In order to facilitate AAM entry into local 

transportation networks, numerous local and 

state entities have begun the process of preparing and self-identifying as early adopters. 

[See www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/programs/iasp/aam/nasa-to-help-local-governments-plan-for-advanced-air-mobility.] Furthermore, targeting investments in regional 

air mobility (RAM) by utilizing the country’s 

vast underutilized airport infrastructure may 

compliment and accelerate local and state 

initiatives on emerging markets, including 

those targeted by AAM, likely transforming 

the entire NAS in the future. [See 

sacd.larc.nasa.gov/ram/ for more details.] 

As the sector grows and new initiatives are 

undertaken, the FAA, together with numerous stakeholders including NASA, is keeping 

77www.lamayor.org/mayor-garcetti-announcesfirst-nation-urban-air-mobility-partnership; see 

also https://www.urbanmovementlabs.com/programs-projects/

78www.pnwer.org/uploads/2/3/2/9/23295822/economic_impact_assesment_-_caam_-_v1.0.pdf
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

89

a keen eye on understanding overall trends 

in AAM. It is likely that AAM services will become a reality in the US by 2025-2026 and 

will initially become incrementally available in 

certain urban and suburban areas. As more 

information becomes available, the FAA will 

likely provide emerging trends and forecasts 

for AAM in the near future.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

90

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts 

of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are 

many assumptions in both the economic 

forecasts and in the FAA models that could 

affect the degree to which these forecasts 

are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, 

at least in the near-term, by the pace of recovery from the impacts to the U.S. and 

global economies and the aviation industry 

resulting from the novel coronavirus (COVID19). It does go without saying that terrorism 

remains among the greatest world-wide risks 

to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident 

aimed at aviation could have an immediate 

and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be greater than its 

impact on overall economic activity. 

In addition, changes in the geo-political landscape could lead to outcomes very different 

than the forecasts provided in this document. 

The crisis in Ukraine represents a very large 

uncertainty to this year’s forecast. The impacts as of the writing of this document are 

still evolving and dependent in large part on 

the outcome of the armed conflict in Ukraine. 

Already we have seen negative impacts on 

airline bookings to areas close to the fighting 

as well as a surge in oil prices. The impact 

of the economic sanctions on Russia is unknown with any specificity at this time but it 

is clear that the Russian economy (the 

world’s 12th largest as of 2021) will suffer a 

sharp recession that may have broad spillover effects to the global economy. Many 

forecasters have lowered their expectations 

for European economic growth in 2022 as 

well due to the impacts of the conflict. In the 

longer run, most analysts are seeing a return 

to higher tensions between Russia and the 

West resulting in higher expenditures on defense that may push taxes higher, and leave 

consumers with less money to spend on 

items like air travel. 

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus 

(COVID-19) that began in early 2020 resulted in the largest decline in aviation activity since the jet era began in the late 1950’s. 

Although the FAA forecast is a long-term 

trend forecast and it has been almost two 

years since a global pandemic was declared, 

there is still a good deal of uncertainty about 

the path of aviation’s recovery from the 2020 

downturn. This uncertainty arises from a variety of factors including the willingness of 

consumers to resume air travel as infection 

rates are reduced, the success of the strategies U.S. and foreign carriers are employing 

to recover from the downturn in demand, the 

stability of consumer attitudes and behaviors 

towards aviation in a post-COVID environment, as well as the breadth and depth of the 

and the speed and nature of the economic 

recovery, all of which apply both domestically 

and globally. 

The future direction of oil prices presents another considerable uncertainty in producing 

the forecast. At the end of 2020, the average 

price of West Texas Intermediate crude 

(WTI) for 2021 was projected to be $44 per 

barrel but the actual price was 57 percent 

higher at $69 per barrel. Similarly, the FAA’s 

baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s November 

2021 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during August 2021) called for 

oil prices to rise slightly to $74 per barrel in 

2022. Instead, according to the March 2022 

forecast and with the war in Ukraine only 

days old, the projected average for 2022 had 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

91

spiked to $101 per barrel. Longer term, the 

forecasts are generally aligned, projecting a 

price of about $72 per barrel in 2030 and 

about $88 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2042. However, there are 

other oil price forecasts that are considerably 

more aggressive than the FAA base forecast

such as the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook released in March 2022. By 2030, it anticipates 

the spot price of oil will reach $88 per barrel 

and by 2042, $132 per barrel, considerably 

above the FAA base forecast of $88. Over 

the long run, lower oil prices give consumers 

an impetus for additional spending, including 

air travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil prices turn out 

to be higher than the FAA forecast, we would 

expect lower spending on air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel to airlines and 

reduced industry profitability.

The baseline forecast incorporates additional 

infrastructure spending in 2021 and beyond. 

However, there is considerable uncertainty 

as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of 

these programs that ultimately determines 

the impact on the future growth of the U.S. 

economy. In addition, how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over 

the next several years continues to evolve. 

Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along 

with increased financial stability could occur. 

However, in light of the recent RussiaUkraine conflict there is an increased possibility of an outcome that leads to greater 

global economic fragmentation due to rising 

tensions resulting in slower growth, and increased financial instability. 

The baseline forecast assumes that the 

global economic recovery that began at the 

end of 2020 will continue with global GDP 

back to pre-COVID (2019) levels led by 

China and the United States by the end of 

2021. Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth 

engines for emerging economies as China 

successfully transitions the economy from 

heavy reliance on manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors 

and India continues to implement reforms to 

make its economy more competitive. Many 

analysts are concerned that in light of the 

Russia-Ukraine conflict, China moves closer 

to Russia, limiting opportunities to further 

transition its economy away from manufacturing and resource intensive industries. In 

the case of India, the impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on energy prices and food 

prices may put pressure on trade and fiscal 

deficits resulting in a slowdown of reforms. 

In the United States, economic growth will 

slow from the strong growth observed in 

2021 as the impacts from the latest round of 

COVID-19 stimulus finish flowing through the 

economy. The combination of direct payments, extension of unemployment benefits, 

and direct federal spending provided money 

into consumer’s wallets and boosted their 

spending in 2021. However later on in the 

decade, the forecast assumes some measure of fiscal restraint will be implemented as 

the impact of the huge increase in federal 

spending to combat the economic impacts of 

COVID-19 has pushed the government debt 

as percent of GDP to levels that were last 

seen at the end of World War 2. In Japan, 

the United Kingdom, and the European Union economic growth over the next few years 

will be well above rates seen over the past 

decade as these regions recover from the 

COVID-19 recession. However, over the 

forecast horizon, demand growth will remain 

slow in these regions as they continue to be 

constrained by structural economic problems 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

92

(high debt, slow population growth, weak 

public finances, for example) and political instability. In most of the major advanced 

economies, governments need to shore up 

their finances after the increases in government spending to offset the impacts of 

COVID-19. There exists a non-trivial possibility that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps to maintain a healthy 

global economy. The current forecasts call 

for strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions, especially over the next five years. An 

unexpected slowing of worldwide economic 

activity could push the return of international 

passenger demand to pre-COVID levels beyond our current forecast of 2024. 

Although U.S. airline finances have been 

decimated as a result of COVID-19 and the 

fall in demand, the outlook for further consolidation either through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or bankruptcy appears to be rather limited, with one exception: a planned 

merger between Frontier Airlines and Spirit 

Airlines, pending regulatory approval. Ultra 

low-cost carriers which focus on domestic 

leisure traffic have been fastest to recover

during the pandemic, putting them in relatively strong positions in recent quarters, and 

creating the opportunity for a merger. 

Based on FY 2021 data, the top 6 (American, 

Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska and JetBlue) accounted for about 78 percent of the 

U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic, and 

a combined Frontier and Spirit would make 

up about 8 percent. For the large network 

carriers, the steps they have taken to increase their liquidity have reduced the risk of 

bankruptcy in the next few years. However, 

if the demand recovery is slower than expected, the increase in debt that these carriers are servicing may be a burden and increase the possibility of a bankruptcy or liquidation. While the announced merger of 

Frontier and Spirit shows that in the right circumstances, consolidation among ultra-low 

cost carriers can happen, in general, the risk 

associated with a merger today compared to 

pre-COVID has increased due to the poorer 

financial condition of carriers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable 

numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleets of regional carriers. 

While the recovery in air travel demand from 

the COVID downturn is projected to be robust, we are not projecting a uniform recovery across all segments. As network carriers 

continue to adjust the size and breadth of 

their networks in anticipation of the postCOVID environment, they are continuing to 

move forward with plans to significantly reduce the numbers of small regional jets they 

will need. Prior to the COVID downturn in 

2020, strong air travel demand has not ensured financial stability for regional carriers, 

as the bankruptcy filings of Republic Airways 

in 2016, Great Lakes Airlines in 2018 and 

Trans States Airlines in 2020 have shown. 

Financially strong and well positioned regional carriers may see increased opportunities for regional flying as a result of the network carrier actions, but the overall impact 

will most likely reduce opportunities for many 

regional carriers. In addition to managing 

changing relationships with network carriers, 

regional carriers have struggled with pilot 

shortages that were exacerbated during the 

pandemic recovery. The downturn prompted 

mainline carriers to reduce costs by, among 

other measures, offering voluntary retirements to flight crews but, as activity picked 

up, they drew replacements from the ranks 

of regionals, causing additional shortages for 

those carriers. To attract and recruit crews, 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

93

some carriers have raised salaries and offered bonuses, further increasing financial 

pressures and possibly leading to new consolidation in the regional airline industry.

The general aviation sector did suffer a 

downturn in activity in 2020 due to the impacts of COVID-19, but the magnitude of the 

decline was much less than the decline in 

commercial aviation. By the end of 2021 

most sectors, including corporate and business aviation, were at or exceeding preCOVID activity levels. We project a return to 

pre-COVID levels of activity in the GA segment by 2022. Once returning to pre-COVID 

levels of activity, future growth in business 

and corporate aviation is based largely upon 

the prospects for economic growth and corporate profits. Uncertainty in these leading 

indicators poses a risk to the forecast, but the 

risk is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental 

regulations and taxes do not seem to be as 

much of a concern in the short term, but over 

the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward 

pressure on the forecast. 

Overall activity at FAA and contract towers 

rose 7.1 percent in 2021, while activity at 

large and medium hub airports (62 in total) 

increased 2.3 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively, in 2021. While FAA’s baseline 

forecast calls for operations at FAA and contract towers to return to pre-COVID levels of 

activity by 2023, in the long run, operations 

at large and medium hub airports grow faster 

than the overall national trend and congestion and delays could become critical limits to 

growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there 

will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the 

projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even 

more congestion and delays, it is likely that 

the forecasts of both demand and operations 

would not be achieved.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at 

most large hubs expected to increase over 

the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is 

changing for this same period. The expected 

increases in the numbers of larger regional 

jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS and 

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles into 

the national airspace system will make the 

FAA’s job more challenging. For example, in 

adding these new vehicles to the system, 

they could replace existing traditional aircraft. This change in the mix of aircraft will 

most likely add to workload above and beyond the increasing demand for aviation services resulting from the growth in operations 

over the forecast period. 

Increasing concerns about aviation's environmental impacts could potentially limit or 

delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow 

to meet national economic and mobility 

needs. Airspace modernization and airport 

expansion or new construction are often contentious because of concerns over noise, air 

quality, and water quality. Climate change is 

also of concern and could limit aviation 

growth. In Europe, concerns about climate 

change are leading to restrictions on airport 

expansion activities and proposals to limit 

short-haul domestic flights. Community concerns across the U.S. about aviation noise 

have led to increasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. 

Without effective measures to mitigate and 

abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to 

achieve aviation growth may be delayed. 

Similarly, community concerns about environmental and/or other considerations (e.g., 

privacy concerns) associated with UAS, 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

94

AAM, and commercial space launch activity 

could impact growth in these aviation areas. 

In addition to providing economic benefits, 

technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide 

benefits in terms of reduced emissions that 

impact air quality and climate change; many 

technologies that improve fuel efficiency also 

result in reduced noise. Airlines are increasing their use of sustainable aviation fuels, 

which provides benefits in terms of reduced 

impacts of aviation on climate change and air 

quality. The implementation of the Carbon 

Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global marketbased measure for international carbon dioxide emissions, will help ensure an approach 

that is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations 

around the world is used, and will help to further address the impacts of aviation on climate change. Continued advancements and 

fleetwide uptake of sustainable aviation fuels 

and new aircraft and engine technologies 

that result in improved fuel efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, noise reduction and

reduced emissions are required to ensure 

that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the in-service fleet, 

which in turn may depress growth. 

Widespread deployment of UAS and AAM 

vehicles is another potential tool for reducing 

aviation emissions if they replace traditional 

aircraft in the movement of people and 

goods. However, if they do not replace existing air vehicles, then they would result in a 

net life-cycle increase in environmental impacts. The expansion of commercial space 

launch activity could also change the mix of 

aircraft in service, with associated impacts 

on aviation emissions. The emissions from 

commercial space operations could have a 

negative impact on both climate change and 

the ozone layer; however, the magnitude of 

the impacts is unknown with the fuel type in 

particular having considerable impact on this 

magnitude.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

95

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA provides alternative scenarios 

to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Markit’s 10-

year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were 

used. To develop the alternative scenarios, 

assumptions from IHS Markit’s 30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their 

August 2021 US Economy: The 30-Year Focus were utilized. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create “high” and 

“low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecasts. 

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Markit. Thus, the alternative scenarios 

use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS

Markit’s Major Trading Partner and Other Important Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create high and 

low cases. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that economic growth rebounds solidly in 2022 and then remains slightly above

trend through the remainder of the decade, 

supported by consumer and government 

spending. The unemployment rate continues its retreat, falling below its pre-pandemic 

rate in 2023. Oil prices surge in 2022 but, as 

previously mentioned, the forecast now appears conservative due to the war in Ukraine. 

No external shocks are assumed in the forecast. 

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Markit’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic scenario is characterized by a quicker recovery 

in the near term than in the baseline followed 

by slightly stronger growth over the balance 

of the forecast. Near-term differences include surging GDP growth of 7.0 percent in 

2022 compared to 4.5 percent in the baseline, driven mainly by stronger consumer 

spending. This spending results from a more 

robust response by consumers to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and a willingness to tap into some of their excess savings, buttressed by stronger confidence from 

declining COVID-19 cases. The unemployment rate falls a bit more sharply than in the 

baseline though it also reaches the pre-pandemic rate in 2023. And the price of oil is 

about 10 percent below the baseline as 

OPEC+ raises output quotas and US inventories rise faster than normal.

In this scenario, real personal consumption 

expenditure (PCE) per capita growth is about 

3 tenths of a percentage point stronger than 

the baseline in the medium- and long-term. 

Unemployment averages 0.25 percentage 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

96

points lower on a fiscal year basis than the 

baseline.79 

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Markit’s pessimistic scenario. In this 

forecast, an upturn in new COVID-19 cases, 

hospitalizations, and deaths, lead to more 

caution on the part of consumers, slowing 

their spending which falls below the baseline 

path. The economy sees a recovery in 2022 

that is more modest than in the baseline and 

optimistic scenarios, and medium- and longterm growth is also slower. GDP growth averages 0.5 percentage points lower than in 

the baseline over the forecast horizon. 

Contributing to slower GDP growth in this 

scenario, business capital investments and 

residential housing investments both grow 

more slowly than in the baseline, resulting in 

lower overall productivity growth. Supply 

chain issues continue and consumer hesitancy combine, causing businesses to scale 

back investments. Financial conditions are 

tight and household wealth is impacted by 

declining stock markets.

Oil prices rise faster than the baseline 

throughout the forecast and are $52 per barrel higher by 2042. Real PCE per capita in 

this scenario grows 0.8 percentage points 

slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.6 points higher 

on an annual basis than in the baseline.

 

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

79 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts 

of enplanements.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

97

 300

 320

 340

 360

 380

 400

2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

 6.0

 6.5

 7.0

 7.5

 8.0

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

98

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow 

growth of energy prices and import prices 

counteracts faster growth of other consumer 

goods prices causing the optimistic CPI to 

rise somewhat slower than the baseline. In 

the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages 

and import prices all rise more rapidly compared to the baseline. 

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

Index Value (2021 = 100)

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

99

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 4.9 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2022-2042 (with domestic 

and international passengers increasing at 

rates of 4.7 and 6.9 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at 

a slightly quicker pace, averaging 5.5 percent per year (up 5.3 percent domestically 

and 7.1 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices 

which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the 

end of the forecast period in 2042, system 

passengers in the optimistic case are 12.6

percent above the baseline, totaling 1.7 billion, 191 million greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened personal income growth 

and consumer confidence combined with a 

contraction in financial asset markets, leading to higher interest rates, and curtailed investment and consumer spending. In this

scenario, enplanements grow an average of 

3.8 percent per year (domestic up 3.5 percent and international up 6.3 percent). In the 

pessimistic case, system passengers in

2042 are 19.7 percent below the baseline 

case, totaling 1.2 billion, or 299 million fewer 

than in the baseline.

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

million

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

400

600

800
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

100

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 5.7 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2022-2042), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 4.8 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 8.8

percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 6.2 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 5.5 and

9.0 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 4.7 

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 3.7 percent a year while international traffic grows 8.2 percent annually.

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

billion

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

500

700

900

Available Seat Miles 

In the base case, system capacity is forecast 

to increase an average of 4.7 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 4.0 percent annually in domestic 

markets and 6.5 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows somewhat faster than in the baseline forecast, averaging 5.2 percent annually system-wide

(4.7 and 6.8 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

101

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment. 

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel 

is lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 3.7 percent 

annually (domestic growth of 2.9 percent annually and international up 6.1 percent annually).

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040

billion

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

600

800

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. System load factor rises from 

68.5 percent in 2021 to 84.4 (optimistic), 84.1 

(pessimistic), and 84.3 (baseline) percent in 

2042. 

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 72.4 percent to 85.1

percent in the baseline, and to 85.2 percent 

in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. 

The international load factor rises in the 

baseline from 53.5 percent to 82.3 percent; 

in the optimistic to 82.3 percent; and in the 

pessimistic to 82.0 percent. This reflects in 

part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

102

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 2.3 percent annually, rising 

from 11.71 cents in 2021 to 18.89 cents in 

2042. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 11.50 cents in 2021 

to 19.23 cents in 2042. International yield 

rises from 12.80 cents in 2021 to 18.09 cents 

in 2042. 

System yield rises in the optimistic case at a 

slower rate than in the baseline, up 1.9 percent annually to 17.35 cents in 2042. Domestic yield increases to 17.33 cents while 

international yield increases to 17.40 cents. 

The moderate growth in yield in both cases 

is due to advancements in technology, gains 

in productivity, and modestly rising fuel 

prices.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an 

average of 3.4 percent annually, reaching

23.49 cents by 2042 (25.10 cents domestically and 20.11 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and markedly higher energy prices 

than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher 

costs of fuel, labor, and capital.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

103

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2021-2042

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2021E 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2021-22 2022-27 2022-32 2022-37 2022-42

Economic AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 40,244 41,368 44,722 48,484 51,591 55,134 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%Expenditure per Capita Baseline 40,376 42,095 47,491 53,157 58,666 64,785 4.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2%(2012 $) Optimistic 40,550 43,134 50,089 56,626 63,140 70,562 6.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5%Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 59.4 77.7 74.2 93.7 116.1 139.0 30.8% -0.9% 1.9% 2.7% 3.0%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 59.1 75.1 63.4 72.6 80.8 86.9 27.2% -3.3% -0.3% 0.5% 0.7%

Optimistic 57.9 68.4 55.6 59.9 64.1 67.5 18.2% -4.1% -1.3% -0.4% -0.1%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.67 2.80 3.28 3.91 4.67 5.61 5.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.67 2.78 3.10 3.48 3.90 4.37 4.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Optimistic 2.67 2.76 3.01 3.34 3.65 4.00 3.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Civilian Unemployment RatePessimistic 6.5 5.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 -12.4% -3.4% -1.8% -1.5% -1.3%

(%) Baseline 6.0 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 -32.3% -0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Optimistic 5.9 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.8 -35.0% -0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

104

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2021-2042

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2021E 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2021-22 2022-27 2022-32 2022-37 2022-42

System Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 828.7 923.4 1,304.5 1,467.1 1,605.7 1,777.7 11.4% 7.2% 4.7% 3.8% 3.3%(BIL) Baseline 828.7 991.9 1,430.1 1,632.0 1,871.3 2,155.5 19.7% 7.6% 5.1% 4.3% 4.0%

Optimistic 828.7 1,031.2 1,528.8 1,758.6 2,044.9 2,395.5 24.4% 8.2% 5.5% 4.7% 4.3%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 567.4 738.6 1,096.2 1,232.5 1,350.1 1,495.2 30.2% 8.2% 5.3% 4.1% 3.6%(BIL) Baseline 567.4 790.2 1,201.7 1,372.1 1,575.7 1,816.8 39.3% 8.7% 5.7% 4.7% 4.3%

Optimistic 567.4 821.1 1,285.3 1,479.4 1,723.2 2,020.7 44.7% 9.4% 6.1% 5.1% 4.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 556.4 688.6 944.3 1,030.7 1,113.5 1,217.5 23.8% 6.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.9%(MIL) Baseline 556.4 726.2 1,037.0 1,166.7 1,326.3 1,516.2 30.5% 7.4% 4.9% 4.1% 3.7%

Optimistic 556.4 753.4 1,118.0 1,273.0 1,468.3 1,707.7 35.4% 8.2% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,391.1 5,830.1 7,993.3 8,784.3 9,456.2 10,300.9 8.1% 6.5% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9%(MIL) Baseline 5,391.1 6,216.0 8,772.4 9,851.3 11,133.5 12,646.6 15.3% 7.1% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6%

Optimistic 5,391.1 6,457.2 9,415.4 10,677.6 12,240.5 14,142.9 19.8% 7.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 6,553.0 6,919.2 9,124.4 9,695.7 10,195.6 10,844.6 5.6% 5.7% 3.4% 2.6% 2.3%(000s) Baseline 6,553.0 7,274.8 10,006.0 10,983.8 12,154.8 13,518.4 11.0% 6.6% 4.2% 3.5% 3.1%

Optimistic 6,553.0 7,534.2 10,786.1 11,981.7 13,450.4 15,222.8 15.0% 7.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 11.71 13.28 15.19 17.36 20.18 23.49 13.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9%(cents) Baseline 11.71 13.19 14.63 15.99 17.39 18.89 12.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Optimistic 11.71 13.06 14.28 15.41 16.36 17.35 11.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

105

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2021-2042

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2021E 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2021-22 2022-27 2022-32 2022-37 2022-42

Domestic Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 657.5 700.9 915.3 996.5 1,080.8 1,188.0 6.6% 5.5% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7%

(BIL) Baseline 657.5 729.6 1,006.5 1,141.3 1,306.3 1,507.0 11.0% 6.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.7%

Optimistic 657.5 755.7 1,090.7 1,255.8 1,459.5 1,714.2 14.9% 7.6% 5.2% 4.5% 4.2%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 475.8 583.5 777.0 845.7 919.2 1,011.6 22.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.1% 2.8%

(BIL) Baseline 475.8 607.3 854.5 968.5 1,111.0 1,283.1 27.6% 7.1% 4.8% 4.1% 3.8%

Optimistic 475.8 629.1 926.1 1,065.7 1,241.3 1,459.7 32.2% 8.0% 5.4% 4.6% 4.3%

Enplanements Pessimistic 507.1 620.1 831.0 892.3 957.0 1,039.2 22.3% 6.0% 3.7% 2.9% 2.6%(MIL) Baseline 507.1 645.5 913.9 1,021.9 1,156.7 1,318.2 27.3% 7.2% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6%

Optimistic 507.1 668.7 990.4 1,124.5 1292.4 1,499.5 31.9% 8.2% 5.3% 4.5% 4.1%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 4,529.3 4,765.6 6,245.3 6,685.9 7,131.8 7,707.8 5.2% 5.6% 3.4% 2.7% 2.4%(MIL) Baseline 4,529.3 4,961.1 6,870.2 7,661.4 8,626.5 9,785.7 9.5% 6.7% 4.4% 3.8% 3.5%

Optimistic 4,529.3 5,139.8 7,447.4 8,432.6 9,641.5 11,136.4 13.5% 7.7% 5.1% 4.3% 3.9%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 6,081.2 6,373.1 8,346.1 8,757.6 9,146.1 9,661.7 4.8% 5.5% 3.2% 2.4% 2.1%

(000s) Baseline 6,081.2 6,631.0 9,160.0 10,002.7 11,015.8 12,201.9 9.0% 6.7% 4.2% 3.4% 3.1%

Optimistic 6,081.2 6,858.4 9,909.3 10,974.9 12,268.4 13,838.0 12.8% 7.6% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 11.50 13.25 15.87 18.49 21.53 25.10 15.2% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%(cents) Baseline 11.50 13.11 14.86 16.26 17.70 19.23 14.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9%

Optimistic 11.50 12.93 14.32 15.39 16.34 17.33 12.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

106

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2021-2042

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2021E 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2021-22 2022-27 2022-32 2022-37 2022-42

International Aviation 

Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 171.2 222.5 389.2 470.5 525.0 589.7 30.0% 11.8% 7.8% 5.9% 5.0%

(BIL) Baseline 171.2 262.3 423.7 490.7 564.9 648.5 53.3% 10.1% 6.5% 5.2% 4.6%

Optimistic 171.2 275.4 438.0 502.8 585.5 681.3 60.9% 9.7% 6.2% 5.2% 4.6%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 91.6 155.1 319.2 386.8 430.9 483.5 69.4% 15.5% 9.6% 7.0% 5.8%

(BIL) Baseline 91.6 182.9 347.3 403.6 464.8 533.6 99.7% 13.7% 8.2% 6.4% 5.5%

Optimistic 91.6 192.0 359.3 413.7 481.9 561.0 109.7% 13.3% 8.0% 6.3% 5.5%

Enplanements Pessimistic 49.2 68.5 113.3 138.4 156.5 178.3 39.0% 10.6% 7.3% 5.7% 4.9%(MIL) Baseline 49.2 80.7 123.1 144.7 169.6 198.0 63.9% 8.8% 6.0% 5.1% 4.6%

Optimistic 49.2 84.7 127.6 148.5 176.0 208.1 72.0% 8.5% 5.8% 5.0% 4.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 861.8 1,064.5 1,748.0 2,098.3 2,324.4 2,593.1 23.5% 10.4% 7.0% 5.3% 4.6%

(MIL) Baseline 861.8 1,254.9 1,902.2 2,189.9 2,507.0 2,860.9 45.6% 8.7% 5.7% 4.7% 4.2%

Optimistic 861.8 1,317.5 1,968.0 2,244.9 2,599.0 3,006.6 52.9% 8.4% 5.5% 4.6% 4.2%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 471.8 546.0 778.2 938.1 1,049.5 1,183.0 15.7% 7.3% 5.6% 4.5% 3.9%

(000s) Baseline 471.8 643.7 846.0 981.1 1,139.0 1,316.6 36.4% 5.6% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6%

Optimistic 471.8 675.8 876.8 1,006.8 1,182.0 1,384.8 43.2% 5.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 12.80 13.43 13.53 14.90 17.30 20.11 4.9% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 2.0%

(cents) Baseline 12.80 13.47 14.05 15.32 16.65 18.09 5.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%

Optimistic 12.80 13.50 14.17 15.45 16.41 17.40 5.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

107

Appendix B: Forecast Tables
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

108

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2021 FISCAL YEAR 2022 FISCAL YEAR 2023

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2012 $) 38,973 40,035 41,177 41,316 41,738 41,998 42,218 42,425 42,581 42,758 42,962 43,192

Year over year change -2.6% 1.9% 16.1% 6.9% 7.1% 4.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars per barrel) 42.03 57.24 66.03 71.04 80.35 74.61 71.95 73.59 71.86 66.91 68.23 65.77Year over year change -27.5% 21.1% 148.6% 74.2% 91.2% 30.4% 9.0% 3.6% -10.6% -10.3% -5.2% -10.6%Consumer Price Index(1982-84 equals 1) 2.61 2.63 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.77 2.79 2.80 2.82 2.83 2.85 2.86Year over year change 1.2% 1.9% 4.8% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

109

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2012 $) (2012 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2010 15,542 34,429 2.17 74.612015 17,310 36,750 2.37 56.692018 18,501 38,869 2.50 63.722019 18,912 39,548 2.54 59.772020 18,493 38,357 2.58 43.152021E 19,164 40,376 2.67 59.08

Forecast2022 20,024 42,095 2.78 75.132027 22,881 47,491 3.10 63.422032 25,475 53,157 3.48 72.602037 28,032 58,666 3.90 80.842042 30,919 64,785 4.37 86.94

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 1.9% 1.5% 1.9% -2.1%2021-22 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 27.2%

2022-32 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% -0.3%2022-42 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 0.7%

Source: IHS Markit
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

110

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / 

AFRICA / 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2010 1,400 22,197 5,126 19,240 64,618

2015 1,557 23,992 5,691 24,785 74,550

2018 1,659 25,634 5,638 28,710 81,810

2019 1,690 26,122 5,584 29,862 84,007

2020 1,600 24,635 5,144 29,577 81,146

2021E 1,677 25,843 5,444 31,346 85,643

Forecast2022 1,747 26,849 5,563 32,880 89,280

2027 1,942 29,795 6,386 40,503 104,2062032 2,112 32,636 7,367 48,802 119,6512037 2,299 35,588 8,484 57,705 136,0412042 2,503 38,661 9,758 67,262 153,843

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 4.5% 2.6%

2021-22 4.2% 3.9% 2.2% 4.9% 4.2%

2022-32 1.9% 2.0% 2.8% 4.0% 3.0%

2022-42 1.8% 1.8% 2.8% 3.6% 2.8%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

111

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2015 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(USMCA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical2010 18,794 11,192 2,668 4,220 7,490

2015 20,933 11,665 2,958 4,446 10,961

2018 22,392 12,429 3,140 4,580 13,366

2019 22,867 12,624 3,193 4,581 14,166

2020 21,992 11,803 2,883 4,367 14,493

2021E 23,192 12,407 3,078 4,464 15,669

Forecast

2022 24,166 12,866 3,197 4,584 16,531

2027 27,445 13,880 3,442 4,788 21,239

2032 30,533 14,759 3,709 4,952 26,306

2037 33,750 15,663 3,981 5,124 31,702

2042 37,196 16,599 4,266 5,295 37,229

Avg Annual Growth

2010-21 1.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 6.9%

2021-22 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 2.7% 5.5%

2022-32 2.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 4.8%

2022-42 2.2% 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 4.1%

Source: IHS Markit website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

112

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 635 77 712 555 231 7862015 696 90 786 629 261 8892018 781 100 880 720 281 1,0012019 813 104 917 752 292 1,0442020 462 49 511 421 129 5492021E 507 49 556 476 92 567

Forecast2022 645 81 726 607 183 7902027 914 123 1,037 854 347 1,2022032 1,022 145 1,167 969 404 1,372

2037 1,157 170 1,326 1,111 465 1,5762042 1,318 198 1,516 1,283 534 1,817

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -2.0% -4.0% -2.2% -1.4% -8.1% -2.9%

2021-22 27.3% 63.9% 30.5% 27.6% 99.7% 39.3%2022-32 4.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.8% 8.2% 5.7%

2022-42 3.6% 4.6% 3.7% 3.8% 5.5% 4.3%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

113

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.82015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 889 83.42018 850 720 84.7 345 281 81.5 1,195 1,001 83.82019 883 752 85.2 352 292 82.9 1,235 1,044 84.52020 613 421 68.6 178 129 72.3 791 549 69.52021E 658 476 72.4 171 92 53.5 829 567 68.5

Forecast

2022 730 607 83.2 262 183 69.7 992 790 79.72027 1,006 854 84.9 424 347 82.0 1,430 1,202 84.02032 1,141 969 84.9 491 404 82.3 1,632 1,372 84.12037 1,306 1,111 85.0 565 465 82.3 1,871 1,576 84.22042 1,507 1,283 85.1 648 534 82.3 2,155 1,817 84.3

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.3% -1.4% -4.4% -8.1% -1.3% -2.9%2021-22 11.0% 27.6% 53.3% 99.7% 19.7% 39.3%2022-32 4.6% 4.8% 6.5% 8.2% 5.1% 5.7%2022-42 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% 4.0% 4.3%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

114

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 2312015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 2612018 26 60 13 100 112 94 75 2812019 28 63 13 104 121 96 75 2922020 11 32 6 49 48 49 31 129

2021E 6 43 1 49 27 60 4 92

Forecast2022 18 60 3 81 80 87 16 183

2027 32 79 13 123 144 119 84 3472032 35 95 14 145 162 145 97 4042037 39 115 16 170 180 176 109 4652042 43 137 18 198 200 211 122 534

Avg Annual Growth

2010-21 -12.4% 0.6% -22.7% -4.0% -11.8% -0.5% -21.0% -8.1%2021-22 213.7% 40.7% 236.4% 63.9% 193.4% 45.7% 251.2% 99.7%2022-32 6.9% 4.7% 18.8% 6.0% 7.3% 5.2% 20.0% 8.2%2022-42 4.5% 4.2% 10.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5% 10.8% 5.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

115

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical

2010 56 53 27 22 1582015 70 75 36 27 2072018 85 86 42 31 2442019 89 89 44 32 2532020 17 33

9

7 67

2021E 24 66

4

5 99

Forecast2022 57 87

9 25 178

2027 101 107 42 37 2882032 119 130 49 43 3412037 138 156 57 50 4012042 158 188 66 58 470

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -7.4% 2.0% -15.3% -12.9% -4.1%2021-22 137.0% 32.1% 95.5% 430.3% 79.7%2022-32 7.6% 4.1% 19.1% 5.4% 6.7%2022-42 5.2% 3.9% 10.7% 4.2% 5.0%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  data also received from Transport Canada.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

116

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 121.9 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.2

2015 131.6 214.8 149.1 902.8 2,892.6 1,131.12018 140.0 219.1 156.3 922.1 2,820.1 1,136.92019 141.3 221.3 157.6 925.2 2,813.9 1,139.02020 141.4 216.8 153.4 910.4 2,648.1 1,075.62021E 145.2 198.6 153.7 938.3 1,859.6 1,019.8

Forecast

2022 147.1 209.1 159.6 940.9 2,266.2 1,088.22027 146.5 222.7 163.0 935.0 2,820.1 1,158.92032 149.0 224.1 165.7 947.7 2,789.0 1,176.12037 151.4 225.3 168.1 960.5 2,739.6 1,188.02042 154.0 226.7 170.4 973.4 2,695.0 1,198.3

Avg Annual Growth

2010-21 1.6% -0.8% 0.9% 0.6% -4.2% -0.7%2021-22 1.3% 5.3% 3.8% 0.3% 21.9% 6.7%2022-32 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.8%2022-42 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

117

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical2010 473 75 548 480 230 7102015 543 87 630 556 259 8152018 627 96 723 645 279 9242019 654 100 754 674 290 9632020 368 47 415 374 127 5022021E 402 47 449 422 90 512

Forecast2022 522 78 601 547 181 7292027 735 120 855 766 345 1,1112032 822 141 963 868 401 1,2692037 930 166 1,096 995 462 1,4572042 1,060 193 1,254 1,150 531 1,680

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -1.5% -4.0% -1.8% -1.2% -8.1% -2.9%

2021-22 30.0% 65.6% 33.7% 29.7% 100.8% 42.2%2022-32 4.6% 6.0% 4.8% 4.7% 8.3% 5.7%

2022-42 3.6% 4.6% 3.7% 3.8% 5.5% 4.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

118

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical

2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.52015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.72018 756 645 85.3 342 279 81.6 1,098 924 84.12019 785 674 85.8 349 290 83.0 1,134 963 85.02020 542 374 69.0 176 127 72.4 718 502 69.82021E 582 422 72.6 169 90 53.4 751 512 68.2

Forecast2022 652 547 83.9 260 181 69.7 913 729 79.82027 895 766 85.6 421 345 82.0 1,316 1,111 84.42032 1,015 868 85.5 488 401 82.3 1,502 1,269 84.52037 1,161 995 85.7 561 462 82.3 1,723 1,457 84.62042 1,340 1,150 85.8 644 531 82.3 1,984 1,680 84.7

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 0.0% -1.2% -4.5% -8.1% -1.2% -2.9%2021-22 12.2% 29.7% 53.8% 100.8% 21.6% 42.2%2022-32 4.5% 4.7% 6.5% 8.3% 5.1% 5.7%2022-42 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% 4.0% 4.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

119

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.6

2015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.2

2018 26.0 56.9 13.3 96.2

2019 27.9 59.2 13.2 100.2

2020 10.8 30.3 5.6 46.7

2021E 5.7 40.9 0.8 47.4

Forecast2022 18.0 57.9 2.6 78.5

2027 31.7 75.5 12.8 120.0

2032 35.1 91.7 14.4 141.2

2037 38.9 110.7 16.1 165.7

2042 43.0 132.4 18.1 193.5

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -12.4% 0.9% -22.7% -4.0%2021-22 213.7% 41.6% 236.4% 65.6%2022-32 6.9% 4.7% 18.8% 6.0%2022-42 4.5% 4.2% 10.2% 4.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

120

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR ASMs (BIL) RPMs (BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.2

2015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.8

2018 138 112 81.0 111 92 82.2 92 75 81.7 342 279 81.6

2019 146 121 82.9 112 94 83.5 91 75 82.6 349 290 83.0

2020 69 48 69.3 63 48 76.2 44 31 71.8 176 127 72.4

2021E 57 27 47.8 92 59 63.5 20 4 22.4 169 90 53.4

Forecast2022 108 80 74.0 118 86 73.0 35 16 45.0 260 181 69.72027 176 144 81.8 141 117 82.8 104 84 81.3 421 345 82.02032 198 162 81.8 172 143 82.8 118 97 82.4 488 401 82.32037 220 180 81.8 209 173 82.8 133 109 82.4 561 462 82.32042 245 200 81.8 251 208 82.8 149 122 82.4 644 531 82.3

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -7.3% -11.8% 1.5% -0.5% -10.9% -21.0% -4.5% -8.1%2021-22 89.6% 193.4% 27.2% 46.3% 74.5% 251.2% 53.8% 100.8%

2022-32 6.2% 7.3% 3.9% 5.2% 13.0% 20.0% 6.5% 8.3%

2022-42 4.2% 4.7% 3.9% 4.5% 7.5% 10.8% 4.6% 5.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

121

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.22015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.8

2018 164.2 247.5 178.1 265.2 223.2 178.92019 166.0 251.6 177.9 269.9 225.6 180.72020 166.7 256.2 178.5 255.0 221.5 177.52021E 171.7 255.4 178.8 205.8 202.4 177.8

Forecast2022 172.7 250.1 175.7 251.9 212.0 182.42027 172.1 250.6 178.1 279.3 225.6 186.22032 175.0 253.0 180.6 284.0 226.8 189.02037 177.9 255.4 183.0 288.8 228.0 191.62042 180.9 257.8 185.5 293.6 229.4 194.2

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% -3.0% -0.8% 0.5%2021-22 0.6% -2.1% -1.8% 22.4% 4.7% 2.6%2022-32 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%2022-42 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

122

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,2962015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,2922018 1,029 4,299 1,610 5,638 2,895 1,2772019 1,030 4,330 1,582 5,709 2,890 1,2782020 1,016 4,442 1,577 5,634 2,725 1,2092021E 1,050 4,756 1,434 5,809 1,906 1,141

Forecast2022 1,048 4,449 1,481 6,064 2,312 1,2132027 1,041 4,544 1,545 6,617 2,877 1,2992032 1,056 4,599 1,556 6,747 2,842 1,3172037 1,070 4,626 1,564 6,770 2,789 1,3302042 1,084 4,650 1,572 6,779 2,742 1,340

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 0.3% 0.6% -1.3% 2.2% -4.3% -1.2%2021-22 -0.2% -6.4% 3.3% 4.4% 21.3% 6.4%2022-32 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 2.1% 0.8%2022-42 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

123

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 15.47 12.84 15.74 12.69 15.562015 14.79 16.65 14.16 15.94 14.59 16.422018 13.92 14.85 13.58 14.50 13.81 14.752019 14.12 14.80 13.47 14.11 13.92 14.592020 13.46 13.90 13.45 13.89 13.45 13.902021E 11.73 11.73 12.85 12.85 11.93 11.93

Forecast2022 13.36 12.81 13.51 12.83 13.39 12.842027 15.14 13.02 14.08 12.01 14.81 12.732032 16.57 12.67 15.35 11.68 16.18 12.382037 18.03 12.32 16.68 11.33 17.61 12.022042 19.59 11.94 18.13 10.98 19.13 11.66

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.7% -2.5% 0.0% -1.8% -0.6% -2.4%2021-22 13.8% 9.1% 5.1% -0.2% 12.3% 7.6%2022-32 2.2% -0.1% 1.3% -0.9% 1.9% -0.4%2022-42 1.9% -0.4% 1.5% -0.8% 1.8% -0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

124 

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.73 15.61 13.33 16.35 12.50 15.33 12.84 15.742015 14.64 16.48 14.37 16.18 13.20 14.86 14.16 15.942018 14.38 15.35 14.12 15.07 11.73 12.52 13.58 14.502019 14.04 14.71 14.20 14.88 11.63 12.19 13.47 14.112020 13.49 13.93 14.51 14.99 11.76 12.15 13.45 13.892021E 11.84 11.84 12.59 12.59 22.48 22.48 12.85 12.85

Forecast

2022 12.79 12.14 13.98 13.28 14.61 13.88 13.51 12.832027 14.32 12.22 14.94 12.74 12.46 10.63 14.08 12.012032 15.67 11.92 16.15 12.28 13.66 10.39 15.35 11.682037 17.12 11.62 17.33 11.77 14.95 10.15 16.68 11.332042 18.71 11.33 18.61 11.27 16.37 9.92 18.13 10.98

Avg Annual Growth

2010-21 -0.7% -2.5% -0.5% -2.3% 5.5% 3.5% 0.0% -1.8%2021-22 8.0% 2.6% 11.0% 5.4% -35.0% -38.3% 5.1% -0.2%2022-32 2.1% -0.2% 1.5% -0.8% -0.7% -2.9% 1.3% -0.9%2022-42 1.9% -0.3% 1.4% -0.8% 0.6% -1.7% 1.5% -0.8%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

125

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2021 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 219.16 268.72 220.12 269.90 219.49 269.132015 207.29 233.39 211.77 238.44 208.96 235.272018 206.47 220.40 208.42 222.47 207.16 221.132019 205.67 215.54 207.82 217.79 206.42 216.322020 166.65 172.15 167.21 172.72 166.84 172.342021E 177.22 177.22 171.86 171.86 175.49 175.49

Forecast2022 224.23 214.99 217.45 208.49 222.04 212.892027 204.61 175.94 198.42 170.62 202.61 174.222032 232.54 177.88 225.51 172.50 230.27 176.142037 259.69 177.35 251.84 171.99 257.16 175.622042 278.88 169.93 270.45 164.80 276.16 168.28Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -1.9% -3.7% -2.2% -4.0% -2.0% -3.8%2021-22 26.5% 21.3% 26.5% 21.3% 26.5% 21.3%2022-32 0.4% -1.9% 0.4% -1.9% 0.4% -1.9%2022-42 1.1% -1.2% 1.1% -1.2% 1.1% -1.2%Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

126

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions) 

PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS 

(Millions)

TOTAL RTMS 

(Millions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical

2010 11,306 15,971 27,276 1,495 6,246 7,742 12,801 22,217 35,0182015 11,636 16,359 27,995 1,455 6,277 7,733 13,091 22,636 35,7272018 14,182 19,465 33,647 1,580 7,532 9,112 15,761 26,997 42,7592019 14,737 19,668 34,405 1,468 6,984 8,452 16,205 26,652 42,8562020 16,663 21,964 38,627 1,124 4,130 5,255 17,787 26,094 43,8822021E 18,555 26,580 45,135 1,320 4,850 6,169 19,875 31,430 51,304

Forecast2022 19,176 26,064 45,240 1,654 5,694 7,348 20,830 31,759 52,5892027 22,040 30,365 52,405 1,969 9,291 11,260 24,009 39,656 63,6662032 24,912 37,163 62,075 2,137 10,592 12,729 27,049 47,755 74,8042037 27,964 44,584 72,548 2,300 11,801 14,102 30,265 56,386 86,6502042 31,288 52,989 84,277 2,464 12,983 15,448 33,752 65,973 99,725

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% -1.1% -2.3% -2.0% 4.1% 3.2% 3.5%2021-22 3.3% -1.9% 0.2% 25.3% 17.4% 19.1% 4.8% 1.0% 2.5%2022-32 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 2.6% 6.4% 5.6% 2.6% 4.2% 3.6%2022-42 2.5% 3.6% 3.2% 2.0% 4.2% 3.8% 2.4% 3.7% 3.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

127

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical

2010 6,786 1,990 7,897 5,545 22,217

2015 6,627 1,639 9,018 5,352 22,6362018 7,554 1,846 10,422 7,176 26,9972019 7,426 1,661 10,429 7,135 26,6522020 6,669 1,296 10,198 7,931 26,0942021E 7,626 1,623 11,531 10,650 31,430

Forecast2022 8,136 1,716 12,407 9,500 31,759

2027 10,297 1,970 15,752 11,636 39,6562032 11,976 2,182 19,019 14,579 47,7552037 13,523 2,351 22,538 17,974 56,3862042 15,058 2,497 26,452 21,966 65,973

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 1.1% -1.8% 3.5% 6.1% 3.2%

2021-22 6.7% 5.7% 7.6% -10.8% 1.0%2022-32 3.9% 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2%2022-42 3.1% 1.9% 3.9% 4.3% 3.7%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

128

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

Passenger LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYCALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL

LARGE 

JETS REGIONAL JETS TOTAL JETS

Historical

2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,9432018 3,678 0 0 3,678 541 0 0 541 4,219 98 4,317

2019 3,775 0 0 3,775 553 0 0 553 4,328 60 4,3882020 2,860 0 0 2,860 298 0 0 298 3,158 23 3,1812021E 2,828 0 0 2,828 281 0 0 281 3,109 23 3,132

Forecast2022 3,429 0 0 3,429 426 0 0 426 3,855 60 3,915

2027 3,463 0 0 3,463 503 0 0 503 3,966 0 3,966

2032 3,765 0 0 3,765 589 0 0 589 4,354 0 4,3542037 4,203 0 0 4,203 676 0 0 676 4,879 0 4,8792042 4,748 0 0 4,748 784 0 0 784 5,532 0 5,532

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.9% N.A. N.A. -0.9% -4.6% N.A. N.A. -5.5% -1.5% -9.7% -1.6%2021-22 21.3% N.A. N.A. 21.3% 51.6% N.A. N.A. 51.6% 24.0% N.A. 25.0%

2022-32 0.9% N.A. N.A. 0.9% 3.3% N.A. N.A. 3.3% 1.2% N.A. 1.1%

2022-42 1.6% N.A. N.A. 1.6% 3.1% N.A. N.A. 3.1% 1.8% N.A. 1.7%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

129

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 7892018 213 11 2 226 392 120 100 612 8382019 216 10 2 228 419 120 112 651 8792020 200 10

0 210 414 115 109 638 848

2021E 213 8 0 221 434 111 110 655 876

Forecast2022 219 7 0 226 469 118 122 709 9352027 301 2 0 303 618 113 128 859 1,1622032 408 0 0 408 744 110 128 982 1,3902037 486 0 0 486 987 56 111 1,154 1,6402042 622 0 0 622 1,235 8 94 1,337 1,959

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 3.1% -20.8% N.A. -2.4% 4.6% -5.2% 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%2021-22 2.8% -12.5% N.A. 2.3% 8.1% 6.3% 10.9% 8.2% 6.7%2022-32 6.4% N.A. N.A. 6.1% 4.7% -0.7% 0.5% 3.3% 4.0%

2022-42 5.4% N.A. N.A. 5.2% 5.0% -12.6% -1.3% 3.2% 3.8%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

130

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

AIR 

CARRIER

GENERAL 

AVIATION TOTAL

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

Historical2010 12,036 6,315 18,351 1,435 19,786 2 221 223 20,0092015 12,834 6,541 19,374 1,383 20,757 2 196 198 20,9552018 14,580 7,121 21,701 1,820 23,521 2 232 234 23,755

2019 14,648 7,043 21,691 1,510 23,202 2 200 202 23,4042020 10,527 4,723 15,249 1,342 16,592 2 204 206 16,7972021E 11,548 4,813 16,361 1,519 17,880 2 205 207 18,087

Forecast2022 12,686 6,087 18,773 1,680 20,453 2 206 208 20,6612027 16,652 8,326 24,979 2,058 27,037 2 203 205 27,2422032 17,967 9,176 27,143 2,292 29,435 2 197 199 29,6342037 19,566 10,051 29,617 2,505 32,122 2 194 196 32,3182042 21,476 10,978 32,454 2,707 35,161 2 194 196 35,357

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.4% -2.4% -1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.9%2021-22 9.9% 26.5% 14.7% 10.6% 14.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.2%2022-32 3.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 3.7% 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% 3.7%2022-42 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.7% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 2.7%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

131

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2021 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464 503 465 15.74 19.302015 60.0 62.6 60.1 476 695 480 10.93 12.31

2018 64.1 70.8 64.3 487 680 491 11.32 12.092019 64.5 70.9 64.7 492 670 496 11.48 12.032020 65.1 70.7 65.3 495 675 498 11.01 11.382021E 66.5 72.9 66.7 511 662 514 9.63 9.63

Forecast2022 65.1 73.2 65.3 487 648 490 10.82 10.372027 66.9 74.7 67.0 498 644 500 12.39 10.662032 68.0 76.2 68.2 504 653 507 13.55 10.372037 69.1 77.7 69.3 511 662 514 14.75 10.072042 70.3 79.2 70.5 518 671 521 16.01 9.76

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 1.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% -4.4% -6.1%2021-22 -2.1% 0.4% -2.1% -4.7% -2.0% -4.6% 12.3% 7.7%

2022-32 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 2.3% 0.0%2022-42 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 2.0% -0.3%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

132

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 162 3 164 75,029 1,347 76,3762015 153 3 156 72,737 2,116 74,8532018 154 3 157 74,852 2,295 77,1472019 159

4 163 78,302 2,376 80,679

2020 94 2 96 46,385 1,229 47,614

2021E 105 2 107 53,798 1,221 55,020

Forecast2022 123 2 125 59,976 1,436 61,4112027 179 3 182 88,975 2,020 90,9952032 200

4 203 100,849 2,290 103,139

2037 226

4 230 115,680 2,626 118,306

2042 258 5 262 133,609 3,034 136,643

Avg Annual Growth

2010-21 -3.8% -3.3% -3.8% -3.0% -0.9% -2.9%

2021-22 17.0% 19.9% 17.0% 11.5% 17.6% 11.6%2022-32 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% 4.8% 5.3%

2022-42 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 4.1% 3.8% 4.1%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

133

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 98,455 75,029 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,312 76,376 76.12015 90,647 72,737 80.2 2,819 2,116 75.0 93,467 74,853 80.12018 93,860 74,852 79.7 3,023 2,295 75.9 96,883 77,147 79.62019 98,019 78,302 79.9 3,116 2,376 76.3 101,135 80,679 79.82020 70,554 46,385 65.7 1,811 1,229 67.9 72,364 47,614 65.82021E 76,017 53,798 70.8 1,836 1,221 66.5 77,853 55,020 70.7

Forecast2022 77,092 59,976 77.8 1,956 1,436 73.4 79,048 61,411 77.72027 111,724 88,975 79.6 2,699 2,020 74.9 114,423 90,995 79.52032 126,693 100,849 79.6 3,060 2,290 74.8 129,754 103,139 79.52037 145,009 115,680 79.8 3,503 2,626 75.0 148,512 118,306 79.72042 167,279 133,609 79.9 4,041 3,034 75.1 171,319 136,643 79.8

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -2.3% -3.0% -0.1% -0.9% -2.3% -2.9%2021-22 1.4% 11.5% 6.5% 17.6% 1.5% 11.6%

2022-32 5.1% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3%2022-42 3.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

134

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

AS OF JANUARY 1

LESS THAN 

9 SEATS

10 TO 19 

SEATS

20 TO 30 

SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,6132015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,1442018 360 77 20 11 3 14 54 1,795 1,849 522 1,798 2,3202019 374 72 19 11 0 11 39 1,846 1,885 515 1,846 2,3612020 276 74 20 11 0 11 40 1,434 1,474 421 1,434 1,8552021E 268 69 16 10 0 10 38 1,406 1,444 401 1,406 1,807Forecast2022 259 67 15 3 3 6 49 1,623 1,672 394 1,626 2,020

2027 218 56 13 0 2 2 53 1,550 1,603 341 1,552 1,893

2032 177 46 11 0 0 0 60 1,530 1,590 293 1,530 1,823

2037 139 36 8 0 0 0 66 1,759 1,825 249 1,759 2,008

2042 101 26 6 0 0 0 75 1,979 2,054 208 1,979 2,187

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -4.4% -2.6% -13.8% -21.5% N.A. -22.8% -8.3% -1.9% -2.1% -6.7% -2.0% -3.3%

2021-22 -3.2% -3.2% -3.2% -70.0% N.A. -40.0% 28.9% 15.4% 15.8% -1.8% 15.6% 11.8%

2022-32 -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% N.A. N.A. N.A. 2.0% -0.6% -0.5% -2.9% -0.6% -1.0%2022-42 -4.6% -4.6% -4.6% N.A. N.A. N.A. 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% -3.1% 1.0% 0.4%

Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

135

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,3722018 130,179 12,861 143,040 9,925 14,596 24,521 3,082 6,907 9,989 27,531 2,554 4,114 211,749 146,122 31,4282019 128,926 12,470 141,396 10,242 14,888 25,130 3,089 7,109 10,198 27,449 2,675 4,133 210,981 144,485 32,2392020 124,059 11,947 136,006 10,317 15,316 25,633 2,930 6,816 9,746 26,367 2,570 3,818 204,140 138,936 32,4492021E 123,105 11,865 134,970 10,275 15,755 26,030 2,920 6,900 9,820 27,000 2,765 3,820 204,405 137,890 32,930

Forecast2022 122,020 11,795 133,815 10,250 16,230 26,480 2,925 7,030 9,955 27,495 2,905 3,940 204,590 136,740 33,5102027 116,225 11,490 127,715 10,245 18,830 29,075 2,970 7,705 10,675 29,455 3,600 4,405 204,925 130,685 36,7802032 110,560 11,285 121,845 10,460 21,535 31,995 3,070 8,515 11,585 30,985 4,295 4,490 205,195 124,915 40,5102037 105,565 11,135 116,700 10,780 24,290 35,070 3,180 9,360 12,540 32,460 4,985 4,525 206,280 119,880 44,4302042 101,860 11,055 112,915 11,455 27,000 38,455 3,305 10,225 13,530 33,785 5,655 4,565 208,905 116,220 48,680

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -1.1% -2.6% -1.3% 0.8% 2.9% 2.0% -1.9% 0.5% -0.3% 0.8% -7.5% -3.5% -0.8% -1.3% 1.7%2021-22 -0.9% -0.6% -0.9% -0.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% -0.8% 1.8%2022-32 -1.0% -0.4% -0.9% 0.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.0% -0.9% 1.9%2022-42 -0.9% -0.3% -0.8% 0.6% 2.6% 1.9% 0.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% -0.8% 1.9%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. 

Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

136

 

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** LIGHT SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,8712018 12,092 1,694 13,785 2,736 4,592 7,328 601 2,322 2,922 1,153 187 131 25,506 14,386 9,6502019 12,700 1,731 14,431 2,619 3,926 6,546 628 2,369 2,997 1,269 189 135 25,566 15,059 8,9142020 11,603 1,336 12,939 2,344 3,336 5,681 537 1,871 2,408 1,176 202 86 22,492 13,477 7,5522021E 11,546 1,421 12,967 2,493 3,879 6,372 568 2,036 2,604 1,115 219 104 23,380 13,535 8,408

Forecast2022 11,478 1,464 12,942 2,618 4,403 7,022 586 2,116 2,702 1,198 232 116 24,211 13,528 9,1372027 10,903 1,502 12,405 2,880 5,809 8,689 647 2,425 3,072 1,416 298 144 26,024 13,052 11,1142032 10,328 1,496 11,824 2,946 6,739 9,685 703 2,731 3,434 1,543 362 145 26,994 12,527 12,4172037 9,921 1,513 11,433 3,038 7,628 10,666 748 3,027 3,775 1,660 427 147 28,108 12,182 13,6922042 9,742 1,552 11,294 3,229 8,513 11,743 797 3,331 4,129 1,758 491 149 29,563 12,091 15,074

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.5% -2.2% -0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% -3.0% -2.2% -2.4% -0.9% -3.1% -4.9% -0.5% -0.8% 0.1%2021-22 -0.6% 3.0% -0.2% 5.0% 13.5% 10.2% 3.2% 3.9% 3.8% 7.4% 6.0% 11.2% 3.6% -0.1% 8.7%2022-32 -1.1% 0.2% -0.9% 1.2% 4.3% 3.3% 1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 4.6% 2.3% 1.1% -0.8% 3.1%2022-42 -0.8% 0.3% -0.7% 1.1% 3.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% -0.6% 2.5%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2018, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

137

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*

AS OF DEC. 31

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT

ROTORCRAFT 

ONLY

GLIDER 

ONLY

TOTAL LESS 

STUDENT 

PILOTS

INSTRUMENT 

RATED 

PILOTS1

Historical**2010 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 508,469 318,0012015 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 467,310 304,3292018 144 6,246 163,695 99,880 162,145 15,033 18,370 465,513 311,0172019 127 6,467 161,105 100,863 164,947 14,248 19,143 466,900 314,1682020 105 6,643 160,860 103,879 164,193 13,629 19,753 469,062 316,6512021 85 6,801 161,459 104,610 163,934 13,191 20,328 470,408 317,169

Forecast2022 80 6,970 161,800 105,250 166,000 13,350 21,000 474,450 318,1002027 70 7,915 159,800 107,050 171,550 13,850 23,300 483,535 325,7002032 55 9,115 154,500 107,600 178,550 14,850 24,200 488,870 333,8002037 45 10,570 149,000 107,550 186,600 16,100 24,600 494,465 341,6002042 20 11,850 145,150 107,350 194,300 17,350 24,700 500,720 349,450

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -8.0% 5.7% -2.0% -1.5% 1.3% -1.4% -0.4% -0.7% 0.0%2021-22 -5.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3%2022-32 -3.7% 2.7% -0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5%2022-42 -6.7% 2.7% -0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5%

** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

*

Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the 

 student pilot numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. Since there is no sufficient data yet to forecast the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

138

 

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE

EXPERIMENTAL*

* / OTHER

LIGHT 

SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,6562015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,5782018 152 50 234 1,455 9 132 20 1 232 1,820 2,0522019 131 45 213 1,170 8 127 16 1 200 1,510 1,7112020 146 35 201 1,036 8 105 14 1 204 1,342 1,5462021E 145 37 214 1,192 8 113 14 1 205 1,519 1,724

Forecast2022 144 38 224 1,340 8 116 15 1 206 1,680 1,8862027 136 39 243 1,685 9 130 17 2 203 2,058 2,2612032 128 38 244 1,908 10 141 19 2 197 2,292 2,4892037 123 38 245 2,106 11 154 20 2 194 2,505 2,6992042 120 39 254 2,292 11 161 21 2 194 2,707 2,902

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 0.8% -3.3% 1.2% 0.5% -2.4% -0.9% -4.1% -2.1% -0.7% 0.5% 0.4%2021-22 -0.6% 2.6% 4.8% 12.4% 2.7% 2.9% 6.7% 5.0% 0.6% 10.6% 9.4%2022-32 -1.1% 0.1% 0.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% 4.1% -0.5% 3.2% 2.8%2022-42 -0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 3.5% -0.3% 2.4% 2.2%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

139

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

GENERAL AVIATION

MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical

2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 2442015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,579 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,724 264 2522018 15,686 7,126 14,130 12,354 26,485 1,319 1,155 2,474 51,770 264 2542019 16,192 7,234 14,245 13,109 27,354 1,349 1,134 2,483 53,264 264 2562020 11,737 5,472 12,608 12,333 24,941 1,192 1,020 2,212 44,362 264 2562021 12,214 5,882 13,759 13,441 27,200 1,288 1,075 2,362 47,659 264 258

Forecast2022 13,782 6,285 14,569 13,731 28,300 1,288 1,075 2,362 50,729 264 2582027 20,928 5,963 15,636 14,951 30,587 1,288 1,075 2,362 59,840 264 2582032 23,074 6,286 15,839 15,214 31,053 1,288 1,075 2,362 62,775 264 2582037 25,112 6,617 16,046 15,486 31,533 1,288 1,075 2,362 65,624 264 2582042 27,081 6,967 16,260 15,768 32,027 1,288 1,075 2,362 68,437 264 258Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.3% -4.2% -0.7% 1.3% 0.2% -0.1% -1.7% -0.9% -0.7%2021-22 12.8% 6.8% 5.9% 2.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4%2022-32 5.3% 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%2022-42 3.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

140

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

FISCAL YEAR AIR CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY OVERFLIGHT TOTAL

Historical2010 12,575 8,512 10,761 2,050 4,840 38,738

2015 13,610 6,999 10,350 1,961 4,116 37,0362018 15,519 6,475 10,795 1,953 4,113 38,8562019 16,014 6,600 10,960 1,946 3,706 39,2272020 11,617 5,153 9,691 1,763 3,050 31,2742021 12,045 5,462 10,742 1,894 3,393 33,536

Forecast2022 13,608 5,803 11,417 1,896 3,686 36,4102027 20,698 5,019 12,240 1,896 4,486 44,3392032 22,831 5,309 12,380 1,896 4,775 47,1892037 24,856 5,609 12,523 1,895 5,052 49,9362042 26,813 5,924 12,670 1,895 5,324 52,627

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -0.4% -4.0% 0.0% -0.7% -3.2% -1.3%2021-22 13.0% 6.2% 6.3% 0.1% 8.7% 8.6%2022-32 5.3% -0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 2.6% 2.6%2022-42 3.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% 1.9%Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2022–2042 

141

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR COMMERCIAL

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2010 30,965 6,550 2,982 40,4982015 33,116 7,007 1,795 41,9182018 35,713 7,403 1,724 44,8402019 35,682 6,275 1,525 43,4832020 25,537 5,071 1,297 31,9052021 26,386 6,094 1,430 33,910

Forecast2022 29,634 6,463 1,430 37,5272027 42,013 6,966 1,430 50,4092032 46,410 7,151 1,430 54,9912037 50,632 7,346 1,430 59,4082042 54,733 7,552 1,430 63,714

Avg Annual Growth2010-21 -1.4% -0.7% -6.5% -1.6%2021-22 12.3% 6.1% 0.0% 10.7%2022-32 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 3.9%2022-42 3.1% 0.8% 0.0% 2.7%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity