NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 

Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

Central Wind Power Forecasting 

Programs in North America by 

Regional Transmission 

Organizations and Electric 

Utilities: Revised Edition 

2008 to 2010

Jennifer Rogers and Kevin Porter

Exeter Associates, Inc. 

Columbia, Maryland 

Subcontract Report

NREL/SR-5500-51263

March 2011
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Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

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Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308

Central Wind Power Forecasting 

Programs in North America by 

Regional Transmission 

Organizations and Electric 

Utilities: Revised Edition 

2008 to 2010

Jennifer Rogers and Kevin Porter

Exeter Associates, Inc. 

Columbia, Maryland 

NREL Technical Monitor: Erik Ela 

Prepared under Subcontract No. LAM-0-40926-01

Subcontract Report

NREL/SR-5500-51263

March 2011
This publication received minimal editorial review at NREL.

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Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America 

by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: 

Revised Edition

Jennifer Rogers, Exeter Associates, Inc.

Kevin Porter, Exeter Associates, Inc.

September 2010

The information presented in this report is current as of September 2010.

and incorporating review comments from:

Mark Ahlstrom, WindLogics

Jim Blatchford, California Independent System Operator (CAISO)

Jacques Bourret, Hydro Québec

David Edelson, New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)

Erik Ela, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

Devon Huber, Independent Electric System Operator of Ontario

David Maggio, Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)

Matt Neel, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)

Michael McMullen, Midwest Independent System Operator (Midwest ISO)

Kenneth Pennock, AWS Truepower 

Keith Parks, Xcel Energy

Jacques Duchesne, Alberta Electric System Operator
The following table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities 

and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric 

utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the 

second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt 

central wind power forecasting in 2010. Table entries are organized as follows:

• What the record peak demand is for the electric utility or regional transmission organization.

• What total generating capacity is available.

• What amount of wind capacity has been installed.

• What area is served by the electric utility or regional transmission organization

• When the wind power forecast was put into operation, or will be in operation.

• What wind power forecast vendor and model is used.

• What wind power forecast tools and techniques are used.

• What applications the wind power forecasts are used for.

• How wind power forecasts are paid for.

• What data is required, by wind turbine and wind project.

• How the wind power forecast is conducted.

• Whether a ramp forecast is prepared.

• How the wind power forecast performed.

Caution should be used in the interpretation of the performance data. The data encompasses different 

time periods, and can vary significantly based on location, season, weather regime, geographic 

distribution of the wind projects, potential wind curtailment, wind turbine availability, and other factors.

2
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Record Peak 

Demand

50,270 MW 

(July 24, 2006)

63,400 MW 

(July 2009)

37,230 MW 

(January 16, 2009)

109,157 MW 

(July 31, 2006)

Available 

Generating 

Capacity

48,954 MW

(excludes 10,350 

MW of net

imports)

About 81,000 MW 44,192 MW 131,284 MW

(Designated Capacity)

Installed Wind 

Capacity

2,953 MW (CAISO 

total); 1,005 MW

in CAISO’s wind 

Settlements 

program.

9,117 MW 659 MW 7,579 MW

8,169 registered in 

Midwest ISO 

quarterly report as of 

June 2010. 

Area Served 75% of California 

load

85% of load in Texas;

75% of Texas by 

geography.

Quebec, Canada All or most of North 

Dakota, South 

Dakota, Minnesota, 

Iowa, Wisconsin, 

Illinois, Indiana, 

Michigan and parts of 

Montana, Missouri, 

Kentucky, and Ohio. 

Date of Operation

of Wind Forecast

June 2004 July 2008 November 2006 June 2008

Wind Power 

Forecast Vendor

AWS Truepower AWS Truepower Environment Canada: 

operational GEM 

15-km NWP

Energy & Meteo 

GmbH

Forecast Model eWind eWind Anemos/WPPT; HQ 

proprietary models; 

Forecasting tools 

operated by HQ

Previento

3
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Forecast 

Tools/Techniques

Uses ensemble 

forecasts and 

statistical analysis 

to prepare wind 

power forecast. 

Uses the following 

inputs: grid point 

output from 

regional-scale and

global-scale NWP 

models; 

measurement data 

from several 

meteorological 

sensors; highresolution 

geographical data; 

and meteorological 

and generation 

data from wind 

projects.

AWS Truepower uses 

a composite of the 

individual members 

of an ensemble of 

forecasts for each 

wind project in the 

ERCOT territory. 

Uses three NWP 

models, one run 

every 3 hrs and two 

run every 6 hrs; Wind 

Generation Resource 

(WGR) output model

mixed approach: 

some statistical using 

WGR data and some 

specified power 

curve. 

Plan to use: 9 NWP 

model ensemble run 

every 6 hrs; single 

NWP model run 

every hr (known as a 

Rapid Update Cycle); 

Statistical optimized 

ensemble procedure 

that will weight 

ensemble members 

according to 

performance in a 

rolling training 

sample; Statistical 

power output model: 

all WGRs with 

adequate data. 

Statistical models 

using NWP and actual 

wind project 

generation and 

turbine availability as 

inputs. Extensive R&D 

program on additional 

and complementary 

forecasting tools at 

the Institut de 

recherche d'HydroQuébec (IREQ), HydroQuébec’s research 

institute.

Physical model that 

uses Numerical 

Weather Prediction 

(NWP) forecasts as 

input. Energy & 

Meteo uses NWP 

input, a combination 

of several numerical 

weather models 

weighted according 

to the weather 

situation, site-specific 

power curves based 

on historical data, 

and a shorter-term 

model (0-10 hours) 

based on wind power 

measurements and 

NWP input. 

4
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Forecast 

Applications

Used in hourahead market, as

Participating 

Intermittent 

Resource Program

(PIRP) participants 

must self-schedule 

wind power 

forecast. Dayahead wind power 

forecast advisory.

Day-ahead Unit 

Commitment uses 

50% exceedance 

forecast for dayahead planning (i.e., 

50% chance 

production meets or 

exceeds wind power 

forecast). This is 

accompanied by an 

80% probability of 

exceedance forecast. 

Until ERCOT 

completes its 

capacity studies for 

the next day, 

Qualified Scheduling 

Entities (QSEs) are 

required to use a 

day-ahead wind 

forecast provided by 

ERCOT as the 

planned operating 

level for wind power 

in their day-ahead 

resource plan. QSEs 

may provide a lower 

value if capacity will 

be unavailable.

Forecasts also used 

as input to determine 

need for monthly 

non-spinning reserve 

service.

Day-ahead and intraday scheduling 

(generation scheduled 

to meet expected 

load, transaction 

schedules, and 

reserve 

requirements); Intraday rescheduling; 

short-term 

maintenance 

scheduling.

Transmission security 

planning and outage 

coordination; and 

forward and intraday reliability 

analysis. Also can use 

wind power forecast 

to determine impact 

of wind variability on 

transmission 

flowgates and to 

manage transmission 

constraints. 

Midwest ISO is 

working with 

stakeholders on a 

Dispatchable 

Intermittent Market 

Product to allow 

Intermittent 

Resources to offer 

into the market and 

follow a setpoint 

from the Security 

Constrained 

Economic Dispatch 

output. 

Forecast Payment 

Method

Fee assessed on all 

eligible 

intermittent 

resources (PIRP 

and non-PIRP) of

$0.10/MWh, and 

the CAISO covers 

about $0.03/MWh 

from within its 

operating budget. 

The CAISO also 

charges an export 

fee for energy 

from PIRP facilities 

exported outside 

CAISO balancing 

area.

ERCOT pays for the 

central wind power 

forecasting service.

HQ pays for the wind 

power forecasting 

service.

Midwest ISO pays for 

the central wind 

power forecasting 

service.

5
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Wind Turbine 

Data 

Requirements 

Real-time 

telemetry data 

requirements: 

wind speed, wind 

direction, 

barometric 

pressure, ambient 

temperature, realtime MW 

production, MW 

production 

revenue meter.

Data 

requirements:

latitude/longitude 

and elevation of 

the turbine hub 

height that will be 

used as a 

designated 

turbine. A 

designated turbine 

is the turbine 

designated to send 

in anemometry 

data to represent a 

surrounding group 

of turbines.

The number, MW 

rating, and model of 

turbines. Also 

requires average hub 

height of the project 

and geographic 

location of the center 

of the wind project.

Turbine 

Outage/Availability 

data is currently 

voluntary; however 

ERCOT is working on 

making it a 

requirement.

Operational planning 

data (planned turbine 

availability); turbine 

specifications (power 

curve, control system, 

cold weather 

packages, etc); realtime data including 

kW of active power, 

nacelle direction, 

blade position, 

temperature at 

nacelle level, wind 

speed, wind direction, 

and turbine status.

Not applicable - wind 

projects do not 

provide any turbinespecific information 

to Energy & Meteo.

Wind turbine outages 

not currently 

factored into the

wind power forecast, 

but the Midwest ISO 

anticipates doing so

in the future. 

Wind Project 

Data 

Requirements

As of July 1, 2010:

Outage reporting: 

Each wind project 

must submit 

outages of at least 

1 MW and greater 

if their overall 

capacity is greater 

than 10 MW.

A second met 

tower must be 

installed. 

Alternatively, a 

second data 

recording device 

may be on the 

same met tower, 

located at 

approximately 30 

meters below the 

average hub 

height.

AWS Truepower Data 

Requirements: 

Observed 

Generation; 

Observed 

Meteorological Data 

(Wind Speed, Wind 

Direction, 

Temperature, and 

Atmospheric 

Pressure). 

Observed Availability 

and Observed 

Basepoint required, 

but not currently 

available to the wind 

power forecaster. 

Intended to be 

available and used 

under the nodal 

market.

Specifications (wind 

project layout).

Real-time data 

including: kW of active 

power; kW power 

available from wind 

turbines, substation, 

and wind project; 

number of available 

turbines; numbers of 

turbines stopped due 

to weak wind, strong 

wind, and low 

temperature.

Meteorological data 

(horizontal and 

vertical wind speed, 

wind direction, 

temperature, 

humidity, and 

atmospheric 

pressure).

Market participants 

required to provide 

non-binding dayahead intermittent 

resource forecast to 

Midwest ISO. 

Midwest ISO provides 

the latitude and 

longitude values of 

each wind project, 

the hub heights, 

maximum and 

historical MW 

output, and real-time 

output for each wind 

project to Energy & 

Meteo. Energy & 

Meteo uses this 

information to create 

the wind power 

forecasts. 

6
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Description of 

Forecast

Next day: 

production (MW) 

for each hour of 

next calendar day, 

delivered by 5:30 

AM. 

Next hour: 

production (MW) 

for each of the 

next 7 hours, 

delivered by 15 

minutes after each 

hour and at least 1 

hour and 45 

minutes before 

real time.

For hour-ahead 

and day-ahead 

forecasts, AWS 

Truepower also 

sends 80% and 

20% MW 

probability of 

exceedance values 

for each interval of 

the forecast 

period.

Short-term wind 

power forecasts are 

updated hourly and 

cover 1-48 hours 

ahead. Forecast 

delivered by 15 

minutes past each 

hour and represent a 

50% and an 80% 

exceedance level. 

Provided it outperforms the ERCOT 

forecast, QSEs may 

use their own shortterm forecast during 

the operating day. 

QSEs may provide a 

lower value if 

capacity will be 

unavailable.

Though not currently 

required, the 

following will be a 

requirement when 

the nodal market is 

launched in late 

2010:

Long-Term (one year) 

forecasts: The longterm forecast is a 

“typical” energy 

profile for each day 

of a future month 

out to 36 months.

Wind developers will 

be required to 

submit the long-term 

wind power forecast 

each month for a 

rolling 36 month 

period. 

NWPs updated twice 

daily [at midnight and 

12 PM (UTC)], 

covering 48 hours 

ahead. Recently 

added additional 6 AM 

and 6 PM runs. 

Wind power forecasts 

updated hourly. 

Alarms sent to the 

network and wind 

project operators 

when expected 

storms, icy conditions, 

or very low 

temperatures risking 

turbine shutdowns are 

foreseen.

5 minute granular 

forecasts for each 

Commercial Pricing 

(CP) node (100+), and 

updates every 5 

minutes are provided 

for the next 6 hours. 

The Midwest ISO also 

receives hourly 

updated forecasts 

from Energy & Meteo 

for each hour beyond 

6 hours for the next 

seven days, for the 

same CP nodes.

Energy & Meteo 

provides forecasts at 

4 levels: CP nodes, 

zones, regions and all 

of Midwest ISO. 

Generally, the CP 

nodes represent an 

individual wind 

project. Three 

different NWP 

models are used for 

each of these levels. 

Energy & Meteo also 

forecasts wind power 

output as an optimal 

combination of all 

three forecasts.

Statistical power 

curve for each wind 

project. 

PJM and the Midwest 

ISO exchange 

forecasts to assist in 

maintaining and 

improving reliability.

7
CAISO ERCOT Hydro-Québec Midwest ISO

Ramp Forecast No ramp forecast; 

currently working 

with the DOE and 

BPA to develop a 

Short Term Event 

Predictor along 

with a ramp 

forecast tool.

Have a ramp forecast 

in the control room 

for the ERCOT 

Operators. AWS 

Truepower provides 

probabilistic ramp 

rate forecasts every 

15 min for the next 6 

hours; a MW forecast 

for ramp events, a 

90% confidence band 

of the expected MW 

value, and a ramp 

event forecast that 

gives probabilistic 

values of ramp 

parameters 

(expected start time, 

duration, maximum 

ramp rate, and total 

amplitude). 

The tool is currently 

used for situational 

awareness purposes 

and does not directly 

feed any ERCOT 

system applications.

No ramp forecast. No ramp forecast; 

under consideration.

Forecast 

Performance 

Metrics

Average MAE for 

system-wide 

aggregate for April 

2009-June 2010 

was 6.53% for the 

105-minute

forecast (the 

forecast for the

hour beginning 105 

minutes after the 

forecast is 

delivered). Dayahead forecast 

MAE for the same 

period was 10.0%. 

All numbers 

quoted are % of 

capacity.

For all of ERCOT, 

monthly averaged 

MAE for the 4:30 PM 

system-wide dayahead forecast, for 

May 2009-May 2010, 

ranged from 7.08% 

to 10.73% of capacity 

for all hours.

For April 2009 -March 

2010, the MAE was 

6.30% of capacity for 

the hour-ahead

forecast, and 9.51% of 

capacity for the 24-

hour ahead forecast.

For December 2008-

December2009, the 

average MAE was

2.25% for the hourahead forecast and 

4.03% of capacity for 

the day-ahead

forecast (calculated 

at 1600 for the next 

day).

8
NYISO PJM SCE Xcel Energy

Record Peak 

Demand

33,939 MW 

(August 2, 2006)

144,644 MW 

(August 2, 2006)

23,303 MW (August 

31, 2007)

Concurrent systemwide peak data 

unavailable. Xcel 

subsidiary peaks are 

as follows:

NSP: 9,126 MW 

(August 9, 2010) 

PSCo: 6,750 MW 

(July 24, 2007) 

SPS: 5,502 MW 

(August 5, 2008) 

Available 

Generating 

Capacity

37,416 MW 

(Summer 2010)

167,326 MW SCE considers data as 

confidential. 

System-wide capacity 

data unavailable. 

Installed capacity of 

Xcel subsidiaries are:

NSP: 8,666 MW

PSCo: 7,922 MW

SPS: 5,508 MW

Xcel also has several 

power purchase 

agreements that are 

not reflected in these 

numbers.

Installed Wind 

Capacity

1,274 MW

(1,256 MW 

included in the 

forecast – 2 older 

wind plants 

considered too 

small to include). 

About 2,500 MW 1,583 MW 3,165 MW

Area Served New York All or parts of 

Delaware, Illinois, 

Indiana, Kentucky, 

Maryland, Michigan,

New Jersey, North 

Carolina, Ohio, 

Pennsylvania, 

Tennessee, Virginia, 

West Virginia and the 

District of Columbia. 

50,000 square mile 

area of California, 

excluding the City of 

Los Angeles and 

certain other cities 

Xcel Energy serves 

parts of eight states, 

including Colorado, 

Michigan, Minnesota, 

New Mexico, North 

Dakota, South 

Dakota, Texas, and 

Wisconsin. 

Date of Operation

of Wind Forecast

June 2008 – for 

dispatch decisions;

May 2009 – for 

individual wind 

plant economic 

dispatch decisions

April 2009 November 2000 October 2009

Wind Power 

Forecast Vendor

AWS Truepower Energy & Meteo 

GmbH 

AWS Truepower The National Center 

for Atmospheric 

Research (NCAR)

Forecast Model eWind Previento eWind RTFDDA-WRF with 

DiCast technology 

9
NYISO PJM SCE Xcel Energy

Forecast 

Tools/Techniques

Uses ensemble 

forecasts and 

statistical analysis 

to prepare wind 

power forecast. 

Uses the following 

inputs: grid point 

output from 

regional-scale and 

global-scale NWP 

models; 

measurement data

from several 

meteorological 

sensors; highresolution 

geographical data; 

and meteorological 

and generation 

data from wind 

projects. 

Physical model that 

uses Numerical 

Weather Prediction

(NWP) forecasts as 

input. Energy & 

Meteo uses NWP 

input, a combination 

of several numerical 

weather models 

weighted according 

to the weather 

situation, sitespecific power curves 

based on historical 

data, and a shorterterm model (0-10 

hours) based on wind 

power 

measurements and 

NWPs. 

Wind turbine derating data is 

integrated in the 

forecast. 

Uses ensemble 

forecasts and statistical 

analysis to prepare 

wind power forecast. 

Uses the following 

inputs: grid point 

output from regionalscale and global-scale 

NWP models; 

measurement data 

from several 

meteorological sensors; 

high-resolution 

geographical data; and 

meteorological and 

generation data from 

wind projects. SCE 

inputs outage and 

curtailment data both 

prior and postproduction.

NCAR incorporates 

observations of 

current atmospheric 

conditions from a 

variety of sources 

using 3 NCAR-based 

tools: the Weather 

Research and 

Forecasting model; 

the Real-Time FourDimensional Data 

Assimilation system; 

and the Dynamic 

Integrated Forecast 

System.

Forecast 

Applications

Used to review 

day-ahead unit 

commitment 

schedules to 

ensure enough 

generation is 

committed to meet 

load forecast. Also 

used in real time to 

make real-time 

commitment and 

dispatch decisions. 

Used to determine 

whether there is 

sufficient generation 

scheduled within 

PJM to meet 

expected load, 

transaction 

schedules, and 

reserve 

requirements. 

Energy scheduling. Forecasts used for 

day-ahead 

commitment and to 

influence real-time 

dispatch. 

Forecast Payment 

Method

Fee assessed to 

each wind project. 

Charge includes 

the sum of a 

monthly fee of 

$500 and a 

separate monthly 

fee of $7.50 per 

MW of nameplate 

capacity. Fees are 

subject to change 

as more wind 

projects are added.

PJM pays for the 

central wind power 

forecasting service. 

SCE pays for the wind 

power forecasting 

service.

Xcel Energy pays for 

the wind power 

forecasting services 

and R&D. 

10
NYISO PJM SCE Xcel Energy

Wind Turbine 

Data 

Requirements 

Turbine 

manufacturer 

specifications; 

plant configuration 

(latitude/longitude 

of each turbine); 

manufacturer’s 

power curve; 

plant/turbine 

availability; plant 

level or turbine 

level power output 

data; both planned 

and unplanned

outage 

information; and 

cut-in, cut-out, and 

cut-back-in 

settings data.

General turbine 

information (class of 

turbine, turbine 

capacity); min/max 

wind speed; 

manufacturer power 

curves; geographic 

location; hub height;

ambient temperature 

operating limits and 

information on 

installation of cold 

weather packages.

Along with these 

turbine-specific 

requirements, the 

initial project data 

required includes 

aggregate historic 

power output, 

meteorological and

outage data; and the 

aggregate reactive 

capability curve.

MW production 

metering.

Static data including 

latitude/longitude of 

each turbine, hub 

height, elevation, and 

turbine make/model.

Dynamic data 

including generation 

data, nacelle wind 

speed, and turbine 

availability status.

Wind Project 

Data 

Requirements

Meteorological 

data from at least 

one point at least 

every 30 seconds, 

and from locations 

such that no 

individual turbine 

is more than 5 km 

from a reporting 

sensor. On-site 

meteorological 

data [wind speed, 

wind direction, 

pressure, 

temperature, 

humidity, dew 

point] from 

multiple heights.

Daily penalties of 

the greater of $500 

or $20/MW for 

persistent lack of 

or bad data.

Real time aggregate 

wind project MW 

output. 

Must install at least 

one meteorological 

tower (or wind speed 

and direction from 

selected wind 

turbine

anemometers and 

wind vanes) with

wind speed and wind 

direction data 

required; 

temperature and 

pressure data 

preferred; and 

humidity data 

accepted. 

Outage of turbines ≥ 

1 MW or an outage 

lasting 1 hour or 

more must be 

reported. 

Meteorological data 

(wind speed, 

direction, 

temperature, 

humidity). 

SCE uses 12 met 

towers (six each in 

Tehachapi and San 

Gorgonio). SCE inputs 

outages and 

curtailments into the 

system both before 

wind production (for 

forecast correction) 

and after wind

production (for 

calibration of the wind 

forecasting system).

Generation data, 

availability forecast, 

and on-site and 

turbine level 

meteorological tower 

data 

(latitude/longitude, 

elevation, sensing 

heights, wind 

speed/direction, 

temperature, and 

pressure).

11
NYISO PJM SCE Xcel Energy

Description of 

Forecast

Day-ahead 

forecasts updated 

twice daily, 

covering next two 

operating days at 

4 AM and 4 PM. 

Real-time forecasts 

updated every 

15 minutes on a 

15-minute interval 

basis, covering an 

8 hour time 

horizon. 

Real-time forecast 

is blended with 

persistence 

forecast to develop 

wind plant 

schedules in realtime commitment 

(which looks ahead 

in 15-minute 

intervals for 2.5 

hours) and realtime dispatch, 

which looks ahead 

in 5 to 15-minute 

intervals for 60 

minutes. 100% 

persistence used in 

very short-term.

Forecast 28 of the 32 

wind projects in PJM 

[4 are considered too 

small to include].

Long Term: Provided 

hourly, from 48 

hours ahead to 168 

hours ahead.

Medium Term: 

Updated from 6 

hours ahead to 48 

hours ahead.

Short Term: Updated 

with frequency of 

every 10 min, 

forecast interval of 5 

min for next 6 hours.

PJM currently has a 

confidence interval 

of 70%. PJM has 

flexibility to change

the confidence 

interval with vendor 

if needed.

Forecast on the 

following aggregation 

levels: wind projects; 

electrically close 

wind farms; 

Transmission 

Owners; Regional – 

West, Mid-Atlantic; 

Council – RFC or 

SERC (currently none 

in SERC); PJM RTO

PJM and the Midwest 

ISO exchange 

forecasts to assist in 

maintaining and 

improving reliability.

Forecast updated 

twice a day (at 5 AM 

and 5 PM), and both 

forecasts look forward 

7 days.

In addition to dayahead forecast, AWS 

Truepower also 

delivers hourly MW 

forecasts covering an 

8-hr period.

3-km nested 

forecasting grid 

updated every 

3 hours.

Ramp Forecast No ramp forecast; 

under 

consideration.

Updated every 10 

minutes at 5-min 

intervals for next 6 

hours.

No ramp forecast; 

under consideration.

Ramp Forecasting is 

being pursued in a 

joint contract with 

Vaisala and NCAR 

(currently under 

development). 

12
NYISO PJM SCE Xcel Energy

Forecast 

Performance 

Metrics

For the April 2009-

April 2010 period, 

1-hour ahead 

forecasts had an 

average MAE of 

approximately 4%, 

and the average 

MAE for day-ahead 

forecasts was 

approximately 9%.

For all of PJM 

monthly averaged

mean absolute error 

(MAE) for the May 

2009 - July 2009 

period ranged from 

4.9% to 5.1% for 

intra-day; 5.9% to 

7.9% for day-ahead; 

and 5.2% to 5.6% for 

the evening forecast 

at 4:00 PM, which 

covers 8 to 32 hours 

ahead. 

Aggregate 3-hour 

forecast MAE was 

5.35% for the period 

Sep 2009 - June 2010. 

Day-ahead forecast 

average MAE for that 

period was 11.07%.

Comparable wind

power forecast 

performance data is 

unavailable.

13
Central Wind Power Forecasting under Development

in the United States and Canada

Alberta ESO BPA Ontario IESO

Record Peak 

Demand

10,236 MW (December 

14,2009)

10,500 MW 27,005 MW (August 1, 

2006)

Available 

Generating 

Capacity

12,781 MW 21,580 MW About 35,485 MW

Installed Wind 

Capacity

629 MW 2,780 MW About 1,100 MW

Area Served Alberta, Canada 300,000 square miles

All of Washington, Oregon and 

Idaho, and western Montana. 

Small contiguous portions of 

California, Nevada, Utah, 

Wyoming and eastern Montana

Ontario, Canada 

Status of 

Centralized Wind

Power

Forecasting as of 

March 2010

Issued a 2 year contract 

with WEPROG in January 

2010, following a wind 

power forecasting pilot 

project completed in 2008. 

All interconnected wind 

generators will be required 

to participate. A workgroup 

has been formed with wind 

project owners to obtain

real time data at each wind 

project for WEPROG to use 

to update the forecast, 

which is intended to be 

accomplished by Nov 2010.

The wind power forecast is 

expected to be integrated 

into AESO’s systems in early 

2011.

Proposed to recover costs 

from wind generators via a 

$/MWh charge, which 

escalate annually by 10%. 

Differences between the 

wind power forecast costs 

and surcharge revenues 

would be reconciled 

annually. Real-time and 

near-term aggregated 

forecasts would be

available to market 

participants. 

BPA is currently using an 

internally developed prototype

for planning and advisory

functions, and to provide insight 

for future comparison to vendor 

services. A Request For Offers

was released in 2010 to forecast 

vendors.

A competitive centralized 

forecasting trial is 

expected to launch in late 

2010. The trial is the first 

step in selecting a vendor 

for the enduring program. 

The IESO plans to release a

Request for Information 

for the trial and follow that 

up with a Request for 

Proposals.

Proposed:

Generator funded model 

whereby cost of forecast 

service is recovered from 

wind generators through a 

$/MW of installed capacity

charge. 

14
Alberta ESO BPA Ontario IESO

Wind Power

Forecast Vendor

WEPROG In the process of determining 

whether to purchase forecasting 

service from an external vendor, 

use an internally built system, or 

combine the two approaches. 

To be determined through 

a competitive RFP process.

Forecast 

Tools/Techniques

WEPROG uses a short-range 

ensemble prediction system 

based on a multi-scheme 

approach, which is an 

integrated weather 

forecasting system that 

uses 75 individual forecasts 

to replicate weather 

uncertainty for the next six 

days. Each ensemble 

member is based on a single 

NWP kernel, where the 

ensemble members are 

generated by varying 

dynamic and physical 

processes within the NWP 

model.

WEPROG will also provide 

AESO visualization tools, 

uncertainty forecasts, and 

notifications of any 

potential system events 

such as multi-hour wind 

ramping.

The prototype system creates 

wind generation forecasts for 

each wind plant in the balancing 

area, as well as an aggregate 

forecast for the entire fleet. 

These forecasts have a horizon 

of 84 hours and are updated 

hourly. The system uses 

National Weather Service 

models at various grid 

resolutions. BPA also currently 

uses data from 20 BPA-owned 

met towers: 14 were recently 

installed and 6 have existed for 

many years. This met data is 

publicly available, and within 

the next year the aggregate 

wind fleet forecast will also be 

made publicly available. BPA will 

be developing a wind desk over 

the next two years to help 

dispatchers.

Currently operating a 

decentralized forecasting

system, where wind 

generators submit a 

forecast of expected 

generation output. 

Forecast accuracy is 

subject to compliance 

requirements; wind 

generators required to 

provide updates if actual 

output is reasonably 

expected to differ from 

original forecasts by 2% or 

10 MW, whichever is 

greater. 

Real-time scheduling done 

on a 5-minute basis, 

relying on a telemetry

snapshot of wind output 

from 10 minutes prior to 

setting the schedule in real 

time. 

Day-ahead forecasts aid 

assessment of expected 

system conditions leading 

up to real-time. Forecasts 

are included in predispatch every hour; 

results used to aid 

decisions on day-ahead 

unit commitment, spare 

generation on-line, and 

intertie transaction 

scheduling.

Decentralized forecasting 

will eventually be replaced 

by centralized wind power 

forecasting. 

15
Alberta ESO BPA Ontario IESO

Data 

Requirements

Subject to AESO 

rulemaking, AESO will 

impose data requirements 

on wind plants, i.e., 10-

minute met tower and wind 

generation data, and 

available capacity. 

Operational power limit will 

be used as well. Forecasts 

to incorporate up to two 

years of historical met and 

power data.

Wind plant generation and 

meteorological data from BPA's 

met towers are currently used. 

BPA is actively seeking further 

data from wind plants.

To be determined.

Plans to issue new 

telemetry requirements: 

data taken from at least 

one point in the project 

typical of the climate and 

winds at hub height; 

historical data were

available; real-time MW 

output data; planned and 

forced outages; derating 

data; location and 

elevation of each met 

tower and turbine hub; 

turbine type; 

manufacturer’s power 

curve; and cut in and cut 

out speeds. Also plans to 

require meteorology data 

recorded on a 10-min 

average basis and 

submitted to the IESO at 

least hourly. Proposed met 

data requirements include 

wind speed, wind 

direction, barometric 

pressure, and ambient 

temperature. 

Forecast Update 

Frequency

WEPROG will be providing a 

long-term forecast of up to 

6 days, and a wind ramping 

forecast updated every ten 

minutes, looking ahead 

several hours.

AESO interested in 

expanding forecasting to 

72, 96, or 120 hours ahead 

and rolling 6-hour intrahour forecast at 10-minute 

intervals.

BPA's internal wind generation 

forecast prototype produces a 

new forecast every hour for 

each wind plant and for the 

wind fleet.

As per existing market 

rules, the market

participants submit dayahead wind power 

forecasts by 10:00 AM on a 

daily basis. Additional 

forecast updates are 

required as conditions

change. Forecast update 

frequency varies by 

participant. IESO’s Market 

Assessment and 

Compliance Division looks 

for evidence that the 

market participant has 

exercised due diligence in 

revising/updating dispatch 

data (forecasts) to reflect 

changed conditions or 

expected injection. 

Existing processes will be

updated upon the start of 

centralized wind power 

forecasting. 

16
Table References 

CAISO

AWS Truewind, Forecasting: eWind® - Proven, Accurate, Valuable, 

http://www.awstruewind.com/forecasting.cfm/details/true (accessed: June 2009).

Blatchford, Jim, 2008, “CAISO Supporting Integration of Renewables”, BPA/CAISO international wind forecasting

workshop, July 24-25, 2008, slides, http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/business/innovation/docs/2008/

 BPA_California%20ISO%20Cal%20ISO%20Presentation.pdf. 

Botterud, Audun and Wang, Jianhui, 2009, Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations, 

http://www.usaee.org/usaee2009/submissions/OnlineProceedings/Botterud_etal_paper.pdf. 

California Energy Commission, Summer 2009 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook, CEC-200-2009-007, May 

2009. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-007/CEC-200-2009-007.PDF. 

CAISO, 2009, 2008 California ISO Annual Report, posted September 9, 2009, http://www.caiso.com/2424/ 

2424b1b6278c0.pdf.

CAISO, 2009, Settlements & Billing: BPM Configuration Guide: Forecasting Service Fee, CC 701, version 1.10,

 March 12, 2009, http://www.caiso.com/1b6a/1b6aa70416258.doc. 

CAISO Department of Market Monitoring, 2010, 2009 Annual Report: Market Issues and Performance, April 2010,

http://www.caiso.com/2777/27778a322d0f0.pdf. 

Helman, Udi, 2009, “Examination of Operational or Dispatch Provisions of Wholesale Tariffs and Market Rules”,

 FERC technical conference: integrating renewable resources into the wholesale electric grid, remarks by

 Udi Helman, March 2, 2009, http://www.ferc.gov/eventcalendar/Files/20090302091501- 

 Helman,%20CAISO.pdf.

Ontario IESO, 2009, Improving Forecasts From Variable Generation, June 11, 2009, 

http://www.ieso.com/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20090616-Centralized-Wind-Forecasting.pdf. 

Personal Communication, Jim Blatchford, California ISO, August 14, 2009.

Personal Communication, Kenneth Pennock, AWS Truepower, LLC, August 3, 2010.

Zack, John W, 2005, “Wind Power Production Forecasting for CAISO PIRP”, workshop on wind resource forecasting 

and RTO/ISO integration, hosted by PJM Interconnection, March 3, 2005, slides.

Zack, John W, 2008, “Wind Forecasting Efforts to Improve Renewable Penetration”, AWS Truewind presentation

 for the integrated energy policy report workshop, Sacramento, CA, July 31, 2008, slides, 

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2008_energypolicy/documents/2008-07- 

 31_workshop/presentations/Wind_Forecasting_Efforts-Zack.pdf.

17
ERCOT

Botterud, Audun and Wang, Jianhui, 2009, Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations, 

http://www.usaee.org/usaee2009/submissions/OnlineProceedings/Botterud_etal_paper.pdf. 

Doggett, Trip, 2009, “Renewables Development”, ERCOT presentation for the Gulf Coast Power Association Spring 

Conference, April 3, 2009, slides, http://www.gulfcoastpower.org/default/s09doggett.pdf. 

ERCOT, 2008, EMS Wind Power Forecasting Detailed Design (B2) v1.0, March 4, 2008. 

ERCOT, 2008, PRR794: Meteorological Data Required From QSEs Representing Wind-Powered Generation 

Resources, effective date: 04/01/2009 http://www.ercot.com/mktrules/issues/prr/775-799/794/. 

ERCOT, 2010, “ERCOT Quick Facts”, February 2010, http://www.ercot.com/content/news/presentations/ 

2010/ERCOT%20Quick%20Facts,%20Feb%202010.pdf. 

Personal Communication, David Maggio, Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc, September 2, 2009.

Personal Communication, Kenneth Pennock, AWS Truepower, LLC, September 4, 2009.

Saathoff, Kent, 2010, “Grid Operations and Planning Report”, presentation to the ERCOT Board of Directors,

April 20, 2010, slides, http://www.ercot.com/content/meetings/board/keydocs 

/2010/0420/Item_08_-_Grid_Operations_and_Planning_Report.pdf.

Zack, John W, 2008, “Wind Forecasting Efforts to Improve Renewable Penetration”, AWS Truewind presentation

 for the Integrated Energy Policy Report workshop, Sacramento, CA, July 31, 2008, slides, 

 http://www.energy.ca.gov/2008_energypolicy/documents/2008-07-31_workshop/presentations/ 

 Wind_Forecasting_Efforts-Zack.pdf.

Zack, John W, 2009, “Overview of the Current Status and Future Prospects of Wind Power Production Forecasting

 for the ERCOT System”, AWS Truewind presentation at an ERCOT workshop, Austin, TX, June 26, 2009,

 slides. 

Hydro-Québec 

Balvet, Vincent; Bourret, Jacques; and Maubois, Jean-Emmanuel, 2009, Massive Data Acquisition for the Short

 Term Wind Power Forecasting in a Large Grid: The Hydro-Québec SAGIPE System Experience, Power

 Systems Conference and Exposition, 2009, PSCE apos;09, IEEE/PES, 15-18 March 2009, Page(s):1 – 7,

 digital object identifier: 10.1109/PSCE.2009.4839924.

Forcione, Alain; Petrucci, Franco; Roberge, Gaétan; and Yu, Wei, 2008, “Hydro-Québec and Environment Canada

 Wind Energy Forecasting Project”, NE Region System Operators’ wind integration seminar, Montréal,

 February 13, 2008, slides, http://www.weican.ca/documents/2008/080213-19-AlainForcioneForecasting%20NE%20Region%20Wind%20Integration.pdf.

Hydro-Québec, 2009, Powering Our Future: Annual Report 2008, http://www.hydroquebec.com/publications/en/

annual_report/index.html.

18
Hydro-Québec, 2010, Annual Report 2009: Shaping The Future, http://www.hydroquebec.com/publications/en/

annual_report/index.html. 

Hydro-Québec Distribution, 2009, “Electricity Supply for Québec Needs: Call for Tenders Document A/O 2009-02, 

Addendum 1”, issue date: June 8, 2009, APPENDIX VII.

Personal Communication, Alain Forcione, Hydro-Québec, August 31, 2009.

Personal Communication, Francis Gosselin, Hydro-Québec, November 20, 2009.

Personal Communication, Jacques Bourret, Hydro-Québec, August 31, 2009.

Midwest ISO

Botterud, Audun and Wang, Jianhui, 2009, Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations, 

http://www.usaee.org/usaee2009/submissions/OnlineProceedings/Botterud_etal_paper.pdf. 

Focken, Ulrich and Lange, Matthias, 2007, Summary of Forecast Methodology of Previento, prepared by Energy & 

Meteo GmbH, June 25, 2007, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/EMSYS_Generic_Summary.pdf. 

Midwest ISO, 2009, Guide to Day-ahead Intermittent Resource Forecast Data Submittal for Reliability, March 31,

 2009, http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/Document/2c41ee_1200f54a695_- 

7dd80a48324a/Intermittent%20Resource%20Forecast%20Submittal%20Guide%20(2).pdf?action=downlo

 ad&_property=Attachment.

Midwest ISO, 2010, “Corporate Information”, April 2010, http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/ 

Document/3e2d0_106c60936d4_-7ba50a48324a/CorporateFactSheet041610.pdf? 

action=download&_property=Attachment. 

Midwest ISO, 2010, “Midwest ISO Monthly Operations Report: March 2010”, April 14, 2010, slides, 

http://www.midwestmarket.org/publish/Document/254927_1254c287a0c_-7e2b0a48324a?rev=3. 

Ontario IESO, 2009, Centralized Renewable Forecasting, draft, February 4, 2009, 

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20090210-Wind-Forecasting.pdf. 

Personal Communication, Joe Sullivan, WindLogics, August 26, 2009.

Personal Communication, Kris Ruud, Midwest ISO, November 19, 2009.

Personal Communication, Michael McMullen, Midwest ISO, August 28, 2009.

Personal Communication, Ulrich Focken, Energy & Meteo Systems, August 20, 2009.

19
NYISO

AWS Truewind, Forecasting: eWind® - Proven, Accurate, Valuable, 

http://www.awstruewind.com/forecasting.cfm/details/true (accessed: June 2009).

Botterud, Audun and Wang, Jianhui, 2009, Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations, 

http://www.usaee.org/usaee2009/submissions/OnlineProceedings/Botterud_etal_paper.pdf. 

Edelson, David, 2009, “Changing Operating Standards for Wind in New York: Forecasting and Curtailments”,

 AWEA wind and transmission workshop: grid operations and integration session, Overland Park, KS,

 March 17-18, 2009, slides.

Edelson, David, 2009, “Requirements and Expectations for a Quality Wind Forecast”, NYISO presentation for the 

wind energy production forecasting webinar, February 9, 2009, slides, 

 http://www.uwig.org/webinar20909/Edelson.pdf. 

Edelson, David, 2009, “Wind Forecasting and Curtailment Experience at NYISO”, NYISO presentation for the UWIG

Fall Technical Workshop, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, October 7-9, 2009, slides, 

http://www.uwig.org/iowawork/Edelson.pdf. 

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2008, Order Conditionally Accepting Tariff Revisions, 123 FERC ¶ 61,267, 

June 17, 2008.

Gonzales, Rick, 2009, “Operational Challenges and Innovative Solutions to Integrating Renewable Resources”,

 NYISO presentation, Washington, DC, March 2, 2009, slides, 

 http://www.ferc.gov/EventCalendar/Files/20090303120300-Gonzales,%20NYISO.pdf. 

Nelson, Emilie and Yeomans, Wes, 2010, “Operations Updates”, NYISO presentation for the Market Issues Working

Group, Krey Corporate Center, May 13, 2010, slides, 

 http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/committees/bic_miwg/meeting_materials/2010-05-

13/MIWG_Operations_Update.pdf.

NYISO, 2010, 2010 Load and Capacity Data: “Gold Book”, version 1, released April 2010, 

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/services/planning/planning_data_reference_documents/

2010_GoldBook_Public_Final_033110.pdf

NYISO, 2010, FERC Electric Tariff: ISO Market Administration and Control Area Services Tariff, Composite tariff

reflecting Commission orders and NYISO filings through March 12, 2010, Original Volume No. 2, Rate

Schedule 7, Original Sheet No. 320F, Effective June 18, 2008, 

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/documents/tariffs/market_services/rate_schedules.pdf. 

NYISO Customer Support, 2010, Wind Plant Operator Data Guide, Guide 9, June 30, 2010, http://www.nyiso.com/

public/webdocs/documents/guides/Wind_Plant_Operator_Data_Guide_2010.pdf.

NYISO Market Issues Working Group, 2007, “Wind Rules and Forecasting Project Update”, draft, 

 December 14, 2007, slides, 

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/committees/bic_miwg/meeting_materials/2007-12- 

14/MIWG_Wind_Forecasting_and_Rules_20071214_v2.pdf.

20
Personal Communication, David Edelson, New York ISO, August 17, 2009.

Personal Communication, Erik Ela, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 13, 2009.

Personal Communication, Kenneth Pennock, AWS Truepower, LLC, August 3, 2010.

Pike, Robert, 2008, “Wind Rules and Forecasting Proposal”, January 16, 2008, NYISO slides, 

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/committees/bic/meeting_materials/2008-01- 

16/BIC_agenda_07_Wind_Forecasting_and_Rules_Proposal_11608.pdf.

PJM

Focken, Ulrich and Lange, Matthias, 2007, Summary of Forecast Methodology of Previento, prepared by Energy &

 Meteo GmbH, June 25, 2007, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/EMSYS_Generic_Summary.pdf. 

Personal Communication, Sanjay Patil, PJM Interconnection, August 21, 2009.

Personal Communication, Ulrich Focken, Energy & Meteo Systems, August 20, 2009.

PJM, 2009, “PJM Training Course: Wind Generation Operational Considerations”, June 9, 2009, slides.

PJM, 2010, PJM 2009 Annual Report: The Points of Connection, issued March 2010, http://www.pjm.com/aboutpjm/who-we-are/~/media/about-pjm/newsroom/2009-annual-report.ashx.

PJM Intermittent Resource Working Group, 2009, meeting minutes PJM Interconnection, January 8, 2009, 

http://www.pjm.com/Media/committees-groups/working-groups/irwg/20090108-minutes.pdf.

PJM Power System Coordination Department, 2009, PJM Manual 14D: Generator Operational Requirements, 

Revision 15; effective April 1, 2009, 

http://www.pjm.com/documents/~/media/documents/manuals/m14d.ashx. 

SCE

AWS Truewind, Forecasting: eWind® - Proven, Accurate, Valuable, 

http://www.awstruewind.com/forecasting.cfm/details/true (accessed: June 2009).

Bailey, Bruce; Brower, Michael; Cheng, Min; Gilman, Barry; Isaac, Jerry; and Zack, John, 2001, The Value of Wind 

Forecasting to Southern California Edison, http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/NSTLHY_NSTL_HY2163883.aspx.

Canning, Arthur, 2009, “Electricity Sales and Peak Demand in the SCE Service Area”, Energy Commission Staff

Preliminary Energy Demand Forecast for 2010-2020, June 26, 2009, slides, http://www.energy.ca.gov/

2009_energypolicy/ documents/2009-06-26_workshop/comments/SCE-Canning-Electricity_Sales 

+Peak_Demand_SCE_Service_Area.pdf

Personal Communication, Arthur Canning, Southern California Edison, November 20, 2009.

21
Personal Communication, Barry Gilman, Southern California Edison, June 26, 2009.

Personal Communication, Kenneth Pennock, AWS Truepower, LLC, August 3, 2010.

Southern California Edison, Renewable Energy : 2009 Renewables Summary, 

 http://www.sce.com/PowerandEnvironment/Renewables/ (accessed: May 10, 2010).

Xcel Energy

Parks, Keith, 2009, “Xcel Wind Forecasting Project”, UWIG spring forecasting workshop, February 18-19, 2009,

 slides.

Personal Communication, Craig Cox, Interwest, November 30, 2009.

Personal Communication, Erik Ela, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 13, 2009.

Personal Communication, Keith Parks, Xcel Energy, August 17, 2009.

Personal Communication, Mark Ahlstrom, WindLogics, September 2, 2009.

Personal Communication, Nicholas Farrell, Xcel Energy, August 19, 2010.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2009, “NCAR Forecasts Will Help Xcel Energy Harness Wind”,

 news release, February 4, 2009, http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/xcel.jsp. 

Alberta ESO

Alberta Electric System Operator, Current Supply Demand Report, 

http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Reports/CSDReportServlet (accessed November 19, 2009).

Alberta Electric System Operator, Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project, 

http://www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13825.html (accessed June 2009).

Alberta Electric System Operator, 2009, “Wind Integration Stakeholder Session”, August 12, 2009, slides, 

http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/AESO_Stakeholder_Session_Presentation_(Aug_12)_(2).pdf. 

Alberta Electric System Operator, 2009, Wind Power Forecasting Service: Request for Proposals, date issued: 

June 23, 2009, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Power_Forecast_RFP_FINAL_23June09.pdf. 

Alberta Electric System Operator, 2010, “AESO contracts with vendor for Wind Power Forecasting Service in

Alberta”, media release, January 19, 2010. 

Alberta Electric System Operator, 2010, Powering Albertans, volume 4, issue 1, posted April 13, 2010, 

http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/AESO_Powering_Albertans_V4_Issue_1_Final.pdf. 

22
AWS Truewind, LLC, 2008, AWS Truewind’s Final Report for the Alberta Forecasting Pilot Project, 

 submitted: June 25, 2008, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Alberta_PP_Final_Report_AWST_Jun25.pdf. 

Duchesne, Jacques, “Wind Integration Program Stakeholder Session May 26, 2010”, May 26, 2010, slides.

Focken, Ulrich and Lange, Matthias, 2008, Final report: Wind power forecasting pilot project in Alberta, Canada,

 Energy & Meteo Systems GmbH, May 26, 2008, 

 http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Final_report_emsys_lv.pdf. 

Frost, Warren, 2009, Final recommendations regarding implementation of market and operational framework 

(MOF) for wind integration in Alberta and AESO response to stakeholder comments, June 18, 2009, 

http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/MOF_stakeholder_comments_and_AESO_response_matrix_cover_letter

.pdf.

Industry Work Group, 2008, Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project: Industry Work Group Report, Alberta 

 Department of Energy, Alberta Electric System Operator, Alberta Energy Research Institute, 

 August 6, 2008, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Work_Group_Paper_Final_(3).pdf. 

Jørgensen, Jess and Möhrlen, Corinna, 2008, AESO Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project: Final Project Report,

WEPROG, May 2008, http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/weprog_pilotproject_finalreport_v4.pdf. 

Ontario IESO, 2009, Centralized Renewable Forecasting, draft, February 4, 2009, 

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20090210-Wind-Forecasting.pdf. 

Personal Communication, Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG, March 10, 2010. 

Personal Communication, James Shen, Alberta ESO, September 1, 2009.

Personal Communication, Jacques Duchesne, Alberta ESO, June 9, 2010. 

Personal Communication, Mark Ahlstrom, WindLogics, September 2, 2009.

BPA

Bonneville Power Administration, 2009, “2008 BPA Facts”, http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/about_BPA/Facts/

FactDocs/BPA_Facts_2008.pdf.

Bonneville Power Administration, 2009, “Wind Integration Initiatives Update”, September 18, 2009, slides.

Bonneville Power Authority, 2010, “Wind Generation Nameplate Capacity in the BPA Balancing Authority Area (as

of 1/31/10)”, January 31, 2010, http://www.transmission.bpa.gov/business/operations/ 

 Wind/WIND_InstalledCapacity_current.xls.

Personal Communication, Bart McManus, Bonneville Power Administration, August 17, 2009.

Personal Communication, Doug Larson, Western Interstate Energy Board, December 2, 2009.

23
Personal Communication, Doug Johnson, Bonneville Power Administration, December 3, 2009.

Personal Communication, Matthew Neel, Bonneville Power Administration, January 19, 2010.

Renewable Energy World, 2009, “BPA Sponsors Wind Forecast Competition”, August 6, 2009, 

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/08/bpa-sponsors-wind-forecast-

 competition. 

Silverstein, Brian, 2009, “Integrating Renewable Resources Into the Electric Grid”, FERC Technical Conference,

 March 2, 2009, slides, http://www.bpa.gov/Corporate/WindPower/docs/Silverstein_FERC_slides 

 _March_2009.pdf.

Ontario IESO

Ontario IESO, Demand Overview, http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/media/md_demand.asp (accessed May 11, 2010)

Ontario IESO, Supply Overview, http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/media/md_supply.asp (accessed May 11, 2010).

Ontario IESO, Wind Power Generation in Ontario, http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/siteshared/windtracker.asp 

(accessed May 11, 2010).

Ontario IESO, 2008, “Near Term Wind Forecasting: Improving Final Pre-Dispatch Results Through the Utilization of 

Persistence Forecasting”, presentation to the Wind Power Standing Committee, May 14, 2008, slides, 

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/windpower/wpsc-20080514-Item4.pdf. 

Ontario IESO, 2009, Centralized Renewable Forecasting, draft, February 4, 2009, 

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20090210-Wind-Forecasting.pdf. 

Ontario IESO, 2009, “Information and Discussion: Centralized Forecasting for Variable Generation”, June 16, 2009,

slides, http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20090616-Centralized-Wind-Forecastingpres.pdf.

Ontario IESO, 2009, “Ontario's System Operator to Launch Centralized Wind Forecasting”, news release, 

 August 18, 2009, http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/media/md_newsitem.asp?newsID=4842. 

Ontario IESO, 2010, “Centralized Wind Forecasting”, presentation to SE-57, March 10, 2010, slides, 

http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/pubs/consult/se57/se57-20100310-Centralized-Wind-Forecasting.pdf. 

Personal Communication, Devon Huber, Ontario IESO, January 14, 2010. 

Personal Communication, Martin Hastings, Ontario IESO, August 18, 2009.

24
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WE10.4221

5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

Exeter Associates,10480 Little Patuxent Parkway

Suite 300

Columbia, MD 21044

8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION

REPORT NUMBER

LAM-9-99431-01

9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1617 Cole Blvd.

Golden, CO 80401-3393

10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)

NREL

11. SPONSORING/MONITORING 

AGENCY REPORT NUMBER

NREL/SR-5500-51263 

12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

National Technical Information Service

U.S. Department of Commerce

5285 Port Royal Road

Springfield, VA 22161

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

NREL Technical Monitor: Erik Ela

14. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 Words)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional 

transmission organizations in North America. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

15. SUBJECT TERMS

Wind; integration; forecasting; regional transmission organizations; RTOs; utilties; North America; electrical.

16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 

OF ABSTRACT

UL

18. NUMBER 

OF PAGES

19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON

a. REPORT

Unclassified

b. ABSTRACT

Unclassified

c. THIS PAGE

Unclassified 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code)

Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98)

Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18