FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

Table of Contents 

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS.................................................................................................................................................... 1

REVIEW OF 2013.............................................................................................................................................................. 3

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ........................................................................................................................................................5

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ..................................................................................................................................................8

COMMERCIAL AVIATION..........................................................................................................................................................9

World Travel Demand..........................................................................................................................................................9

U.S. Travel Demand............................................................................................................................................................14

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger................................................................................................................................................. 15

Domestic Passenger Markets............................................................................................................................................................ 18

International Passenger Markets....................................................................................................................................................... 21

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo........................................................................................................................................................ 23

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region ...................................................................................................................... 24

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Financial Results.........................................................................................................24

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Aircraft Fleets..............................................................................................................26

GENERAL AVIATION ...............................................................................................................................................................28

FAA OPERATIONS...................................................................................................................................................................30

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................................... 34

ECONOMIC FORECASTS .........................................................................................................................................................35

World Economy..................................................................................................................................................................40

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................42

Commercial Aviation Forecasts..........................................................................................................................................42

Domestic Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................. 44

International Markets........................................................................................................................................................................ 48

Commercial Aircraft Fleet..................................................................................................................................................54

General Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................55

FAA Operations Forecasts..................................................................................................................................................60

FAA and Contract Towers.................................................................................................................................................................. 60

En‐route Centers ............................................................................................................................................................................... 61

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS ................................................................................................................................... 63

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION........................................................................................................................ 66

OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................66

REVIEW OF 2013 .......................................................................................................................................................................67

GLOBAL ORBITAL LAUNCH FORECAST..............................................................................................................................................68

SUBORBITAL REUSABLE VEHICLES FORECAST ....................................................................................................................................69

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................. 71

APPENDIX A:  ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS........................................................................................................ 74

SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................................................74

ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................................79

Passengers.........................................................................................................................................................................79

Revenue Passenger Miles...................................................................................................................................................80

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................................................................80

Load Factor ........................................................................................................................................................................81

Yield ...................................................................................................................................................................................82
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

APPENDIX B:  FAA FORECAST ACCURACY........................................................................................................................ 87

APPENDIX C:  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................................. 89

APPENDIX D:  FORECAST TABLES.................................................................................................................................... 91
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

1 

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS 

2014-2034 

Since the beginning of the century, the commercial air carrier industry has suffered several 

major shocks that have led to reduced demand for air travel. These shocks include the terror 

attacks of September 11, skyrocketing prices for fuel, debt restructuring in Europe and the 

United States (U.S.), and a global recession. To manage this period of extreme volatility, air 

carriers have fine-tuned their business models with the aim of minimizing financial losses by 

lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes and grounding older, less fuel efficient 

aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers have initiated new services that customers 

are willing to purchase. Carriers have also started charging separately for services that were 

historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The capacity discipline exhibited by carriers and 

their focus on additional revenue streams bolstered the industry to profitability in 2013 for the 

fourth consecutive year. Going into the next decade, there is cautious optimism that the 

industry has been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits. 

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn and slow recovery in 

recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, demand for 

aviation is driven by economic activity. As economic growth picks up, so will growth in aviation 

demand. The 2014 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years 

to average 2.2 percent per year, unchanged from last year’s forecast. After another year of slow 

growth in 2014, growth over the next five years will be higher than the long run rate as we 

assume U.S. economic growth accelerates. One of the many factors influencing the muted 

recovery is the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. and the global economy. The global 

economy has been hit by a number of headwinds during the past few years, from recession in 

Europe to a “soft landing” in China and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies. 

This has not helped the pace of U.S. economic growth given the increasing importance of its 

trade with Europe and the rest of the world. Despite this and the ambiguity surrounding its own 

fiscal imbalances, the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a double dip recession and trudges 

along the path of slow recovery. 

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is 

both domestically and internationally – is projected to increase by 1.5 percent this year after 

posting a 0.8 percent increase in 2013; it will then grow at an average annual rate of 

2.7 percent through 2034. In the domestic market, capacity growth in 2014 is forecast to be 1.0 

percent and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent for the remainder of the 

forecast period. Domestic mainline carrier capacity is projected to increase 0.8 percent in 2014 

after rising 1.3 percent in 2013. For the regional carriers, domestic capacity growth is projected 

to be 2.2 percent in 2014 after declining 2.8 percent in 2013. Commercial air carrier domestic 

revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to increase 0.9 percent in 2014, and then grow 

at an average of 2.2 percent per year through 2034; domestic enplanements in 2014 will 

increase 0.6 percent, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent for the remainder 

of the forecast period. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

2 

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to increase by 1.3 seats in FY 2014 to 126.3 

seats. Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to increase by 1.2 seats as 

network carriers1

 continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat 

aircraft continues to increase, we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, 

increasing the average regional aircraft size in 2014 by 1.4 seats to 57.5 seats per mile. 

Passenger trip length in all domestic markets will increase by 2.6 miles during the same period. 

The long term outlook for general aviation is favorable even though the slow growth of the U.S. 

economy, contributed by uncertainties caused by debt ceiling crises, sequestration, government 

shutdown, and the European recession have affected the near term growth, particularly for the 

turbo jet sector. While it is slightly lower than predicted last year, the growth in business 

aviation demand over the long term continues, driven by a growing U.S. and world economy 

especially in the turbo jet, turboprop, and turbine rotorcraft markets. As the fleet grows, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.4 percent a 

year through 2034.

After sputtering in the early part of 2013, both the U.S. and global economies began to show 

improvement in the latter half of 2013 and appear poised to grow faster in 2014. Assuming 

energy prices remain relatively stable, U.S. carrier profitability should increase as an improving 

economy in its fifth year of recovery leads to strengthening demand, which coupled with 

continuing capacity discipline results in higher fares (and increased ancillary revenues). Over 

the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by 

increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over 

the long term a growing U.S. economy. 

 

1

 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Airlines, and U.S. Airways. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

3 

REVIEW OF 2013

The year 2013 began with a good deal of uncertainty which never really let up. Despite the 

uncertainty surrounding the impacts of the expiration of the payroll tax cut, sequestration, and 

ultimately a government shutdown, 2013 saw the U.S. airline industry post solid results. The 

changes that U.S. carriers have made since the start of the global recession in 2008 helped the 

industry to make a profit for the fourth year in a row. Many industry professionals see these 

changes as providing traction towards profitability, even during future periods of uncertainty. 

The biggest change that U.S. passenger airlines have made is the shift in focus from increasing 

market share to one of boosting shareholder return on investment. The U.S. airline industry 

has become more nimble; that is, adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or contracting in 

times of economic distress. Even during times of economic instability and distress, the industry 

has found ways to increase revenue. For example, air carriers are charging fees for services 

that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for services that were not 

previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these recent 

initiatives gives reason for optimism as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) 

posted profits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013. 

Demand for air travel in 2013 grew slowly for the second year in a row amid an uncertain 

economic environment in the U.S. In 20132

 system revenue passenger miles increased 

1.4 percent as enplanements increased 0.4 percent. Commercial air carrier domestic 

enplanements were flat (up by 0.1 percent), while international enplanements were up 2.6 

percent. The system-wide load factor rose to 83.2 percent (up 0.5 points from 2012). 

Domestic enplanement market share continued to rise for low-cost, network, and “other” 

carriers in 2013 while regional carrier share decreased. Domestic low cost carrier 

enplanement share increased by 0.1 points to 29.2 percent, while the share of network and 

“other” carriers rose by 0.5 points to 47.0 percent. Regional carrier share dropped by 0.5 

points to 23.8 percent. 

Capacity restraint by the carriers along with stable fuel prices helped boost industry profits in 

FY 2013 despite system wide real yield decreasing by 1.0 percent. Data for FY 2013 show 

that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $9.6 billion (compared 

to a $6.0 billion operating profit for FY 2012). The network carriers reported combined 

operating profits of $7.1 billion while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits 

of $1.8 billion, with all carriers posting profits. 

The general aviation market continued to improve in every segment, except for the business 

jets. Increase in aircraft deliveries was especially robust for the agricultural airplane portion of 

turboprops, for rotorcraft, and multi-engine piston aircraft. Overall deliveries were up by 6.4 

percent in calendar year (CY) 2013; with a 38.1 percent increase in U.S. billings. Single 

engine piston shipments were up by 4.5 compared to the previous year. Combined with a 27.0 

 

2

 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are 

on a fiscal year (FY) basis (October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international 

economic and world traffic and financial data are on a calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

4 

percent increase in the smaller multi-engine category, total piston aircraft shipments by U.S. 

manufacturers were up by 6.5 percent. Turbine aircraft shipments (turboprop and business 

jets) by U.S. manufacturers increased by 6.3 percent in CY 2013. Turboprop shipments, which 

increased by 13.8 percent in 2013 accounted for the growth in turbine shipments, as the 

decline of business jet shipments continued at a smaller rate of 3.7 percent, compared to 4.7 

percent of CY 2012. This was a reflection of the fragile nature of the economic recovery. 

General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 1.2 percent decline in 

2013, which was caused by a decrease in itinerant activity; local operations were slightly up 

(0.7 percent) compared to previous year. 

Total operations at FAA and contract towers fell again in 2013 by 1.3 percent, as activity declined 

in all user categories. Activity at large hubs fall by 0.9 percent, while medium hubs and small/non 

hub airports saw declines of 2.9 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. With increasing numbers 

of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating 

operations in their large hubs, we expect increased activity growth which has the potential to 

increase controller workload. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

5 

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 

U.S. economic performance in 2013 continued to be mixed with modest growth in real GDP 

and real incomes, a slowly falling unemployment rate, and oil prices and consumer inflation 

remaining in check. The economy grew at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent in fiscal year 

(FY) 2013 after expanding 2.8 percent in FY 2012. Given the uncertainty that characterized 

2013, it was not surprising that growth in 2013 was lower than the previous year. GDP growth 

accelerated throughout the year with the negative effects of Hurricane Sandy and the 

expiration of the temporary payroll tax cut impacting the first and second quarters. Despite the 

slow growth there were some favorable signs in the data as the housing market continued to 

improve, the stock market entered record territory, and the labor market saw steady but slow 

improvement. 

4.9

3.7

1.2

2.8

0.1

1.1

2.5

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3

Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

Fiscal Year 2012 Fiscal Year 2013
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

6 

One of the unique features about the economic recovery (now in its 5th year) has been the 

slow improvement in the nation’s unemployment rate. Since 1960 there have been five 

economic expansions in the U.S. that have lasted longer than 48 months, including this latest 

expansion. On average, for the prior four expansions, the unemployment rate four years after 

the peak rate in the recession prior to the expansion, has declined by about one-third. If the 

current recovery had been similar to the prior four recoveries, the unemployment rate would be 

0.6 to 0.7 points lower than the 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2013, and 7.6 percent 

for all of FY 2013. The persistently high unemployment rate is thought to be a contributing 

factor to the slow recovery in consumer spending and aviation demand that has been 

experienced since 2009. 

9.5 9.5

9.0 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3

Percent Unemployed

Date

U.S. Unemployment Rate
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

7 

The price of oil, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost (for West Texas 

Intermediate, or WTI), remained relatively stable in FY 2013, averaging $100.79 per barrel, 

down 2.0 percent from the FY 2012 figure of $102.81. Although the refiner acquisition cost of 

oil has risen by 84 percent since 2009, the volatility that characterized 2008-2011 has 

diminished considerably in the last two years. 

 

Finally, consumer prices increased at a modest rate in 2013. Core inflation (excluding gas and 

food) was moderate (1.8 percent); while headline inflation (including gas and food) was up 1.6 

percent as food prices increased just 1.5 percent. 

59.9 60.6

101.5

54.7

74.6

96.0

102.8 100.8

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$ Per Barrel of (WTI) Oil

FY

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Economics
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

8 

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 

Based on preliminary figures, according to IHS Global Insight, the U.S. and rest of the world 

economies grew 1.6 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in 2013. The advanced economies (U.S., 

Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) expanded 1.2 percent overall. 

All world regions saw their economies grow, except for Europe, which is still wrestling with the 

recession that began in second quarter of 2012. The fastest growth was in China followed by 

Indonesia and India. 

On a calendar year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada expanded at a slightly 

faster pace (up 1.7 percent) than the U.S. in 2013. The combined economies of the Asian and 

Far East nations grew 4.4 percent in 2013, up from 4.2 percent in 2012. This region includes 

the world’s second largest and most vibrant economy, China (up 7.7 percent), and the world’s 

third largest economy, Japan (up 1.9 percent). The combined economies of Europe remained 

mired in recession, with Western Europe (excluding Turkey) posting no growth and the 

combined economies of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union up 2.1 percent. GDP in 

Latin America (including the Caribbean) expanded by 2.7 percent, although Mexico grew just 

2.0 percent. The largest economy in the region, Brazil, saw its GDP expand 2.4 percent in 

2013, following gains of 2.7 and 0.9 percent, respectively, in 2011 and 2012. 

3.4 

2.7 

1.8 

(0.3)

(2.8)

2.5 

1.8 

2.8 

1.6 

3.8 

4.7 4.8 

2.1 

(1.8)

4.6 

3.1 

2.2 2.3 

 (4.0)

 (3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. and World Gross Domestic Product

US Rest of World

Source:  IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 Sept
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

9 

COMMERCIAL AVIATION 

Worldwide commercial aviation continued a slow recovery in 2013 as stable jet fuel prices 

offset relatively disappointing global economic growth. The U.S. industry posted a net profit in 

2013, with a similar outcome predicted for foreign carriers. After registering net profits of $7.4 

billion in 2012, global industry net profits for calendar year 2013 are expected to be $12.9 

billion.3 All global regions except Asia-Pacific and Africa are projected to see an increase in 

profits as fuel costs remained stable. 

World Travel Demand 

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air 

carriers are expected to post another moderate growth performance in CY 2013 as demand for 

air travel continues to recover from the depressed levels recorded during 2009. Preliminary 

traffic results for full year 2013 released by ICAO show worldwide revenue passenger 

kilometers (RPKs) increased 5.2 percent, a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to last 

year’s growth rate.4

 

 

3

 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2013. 

4

 ICAO press release dated December 16, 2013. 

7.1

5.6

8.8

1.5

-1.4

8.1

6.1

4.6

5.1

8.1

6.2

7.5

2.7

-2.4

8.8

6.2

5.3 5.2

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

World Passenger Demand

(International and Domestic)

Passengers RPKs

Source: RPKs (ICAO); Pax (2009-11 ICAO, 2012-13 IATA)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

10 

For calendar year 2013, preliminary data from ICAO show passengers were up 5.1 percent 

over calendar year 2012. Data for the same period shows capacity, as measured by available 

seat kilometers (ASKs), to be up 4.6 percent. 

Traffic and capacity data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) for calendar year 2013 

showed year over year gains in RPKs ranging between 0.8 percent to 4.9 percent and year over 

year changes in ASKs ranging between -1.8 percent to 3.4 percent. 

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Annual Percent Change

Month

European Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2013

ASKs RPKs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

11 

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported an increase of 5.2 percent in 

international RPKs and a 4.8 percent increase in international ASKs; international passengers 

in the region were up 6.0 percent during the same period.5

 

5

 Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, “Asia Pacific Full Year 2013 Traffic Results”, Press Release dated 28 

January 2014, Issue 2014: 02. 

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

Asia Pacific Carriers International Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2013

ASKs RPKs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

12 

In CY 2013, U.S. and foreign flag carriers transported an estimated 183.6 million passengers 

between the United States and the rest of the world, a 4.4 percent increase from 2012. Yearover-year growth occurred in all markets (up 3.2, 5.6, 4.9, and 3.6 percent, respectively, for 

Atlantic, Latin America, Pacific, and Canada Transborder). 

50 50 53 57 55 56 58 61 63

44 47 49 50 48 53 57 61 65

25 26 26 26 24 27 28 31 32

20 21 22 22 20

22 23

23 24

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source:  US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

13 

Worldwide air cargo demand increased for the first time in three years in 2013. According to 

ICAO, worldwide freight ton kilometers were estimated to increase 1.0 percent in calendar year 

2013 compared to 2012. Freight ton kilometers (FTKs) of AEA member carriers rose 1.8 

percent in calendar year 2013 while the international FTKs of AAPA member carriers fell 0.6 

percent. 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that world air carriers (including U.S. 

airlines) are expected to register an operating profit of $23.6 billion for 2013. IATA estimates 

global airline industry net profits to be $12.9 billion for the same period with all regions except 

Africa to be in the black. Based on financial data compiled by ICAO and IATA, between 2004 

and 2013 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of $124.8 billion (with nine years 

out of ten posting gains) and net profits of $27.2 billion (with six years out of ten posting 

gains).6

 

 

6

 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2013. 

2.6

6.1 6.2

-3.4

-0.7

19.0

1.4

-0.6

1.0

2.5

6.3

4.7

-0.7

-8.8

19.4

-0.1

-1.6

1.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Annual Percent Change 

Calendar Year

World Air Cargo Demand

Tonnes RTKs

Source: IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

14 

U.S. Travel Demand 

By year end of FY 2013, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 15 scheduled 

mainline air carriers that used large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 63 regional carriers 

that used smaller piston, turboprop, and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide 

connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline and regional carriers offer domestic 

and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although 

regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and 

the Caribbean. Thirty all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air cargo 

service at the end of 2013.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) continuing industry 

consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to external 

shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues. 

 

The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry that began in the aftermath of the 

terror attacks of September 11, 2011 continued in 2013. During the year, Southwest continued to 

integrate the former AirTran network into its operations as did United with the former Continental 

Airlines network. The culmination of the consolidation trend occurred on February 14, 2013, when 

American and US Airways (the third and fifth largest U.S. airlines, respectively) announced a 

4.4

15.0

19.9

-1.1

1.9

28.9

14.1 14.8

23.6

-4.1

5.0

14.7

-26.1

-4.6

19.2

8.4 7.4

12.9

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Billions of Dollars

Calendar Year

World Air Carrier Profit/Loss

Operating Net Source: IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

15 

merger agreement that, if approved, would create the world’s largest airline7. Consequently, when 

compared to 2007, 7.0 percent fewer domestic ASMs were flown and 5.2 percent less passengers 

were carried domestically in 2013. This has had clear implications on the size of the aircraft being 

used and the load factors, topics that will be discussed later in this document. 

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unprecedented period of 

capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic 

markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of 

decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of 

September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the 

FY 2000 level. However, since 2007, U.S. domestic market ASMs have decreased by 7.0 

percent, as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 

2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present). 

The 7.0 percent reduction in domestic capacity since 2007 has not been shared equally between 

the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. To better match demand to capacity, the 

mainline carriers contracted out “thin” routes to their regional counterparts because they could 

provide lift at a lower cost, or else they simply removed the capacity altogether. In 2013, the 

mainline carrier group provided 8.0 percent less capacity than it did in 2007 (and carried 6.6 

percent fewer passengers). Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 0.4 percent over 

the same period (with passengers carried down 0.5 percent). 

 

The most recent trend to take hold is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary 

revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. This 

includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price such as checked 

bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority. As noted 

earlier, U.S. passenger carriers posted net profits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013 with 

ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome. 

 

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger 

U.S. commercial air carriers’ traffic and capacity in 2013 showed little growth for the second 

year in a row. System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity increased 0.8 percent 

to 1.003 trillion ASMs while RPMs increased 1.4 percent to 834.1 billion. During the same 

period system-wide passengers increased 0.4 percent to 739.3 million; U.S. mainline carrier 

passenger growth was 1.1 percent while regional carriers carried 2.3 percent fewer 

passengers. In the domestic market, mainline passengers saw an increase for the third 

consecutive year, up 0.8 percent, marking the first time since 1998-2000 that the industry 

recorded three consecutive years of passenger growth in the domestic market. Mainline 

passengers in international markets posted a fourth year of growth, up 2.9 percent. 

Even though the recession was officially over in June 20098

, carriers continued to face 

economic uncertainty in 2013 as corporate travel budgets remained strained, high 

 

7 On December 9, 2013 American and US Airways merged to form American Airlines Group, Inc. 

8

 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

16 

unemployment persisted and uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the payroll tax break in 

January, the impacts of sequestration in April, and the threat (which ultimately proved real) of a 

federal government shutdown at the end of September shadowed other more positive 

developments. In such an uncertain environment, industry capacity growth was restrained (up 

0.8 percent), after only a 0.1 percent increase in 2012. Given the minimal increase in seats 

available to the travelling public, carriers were still able to raise airfares despite the slow 

growth in demand. Higher airfares and ancillary revenues, coupled with flat to falling fuel 

prices resulted in U.S. carriers finishing up 2013 with a net profit. 

 

System load factor and trip length continued to head upwards in 2013, even as seats per 

aircraft mile increased. The average load factor reached a record-breaking 83.2 points, up 0.5 

points from 2012. Passenger trip length posted its largest increase since 2008, up 12.1 miles, 

to 1,128.2 miles. Seats per aircraft mile increased to 142.9 seats (up 1.4 seats per aircraft 

mile). 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

17 

7.4

2.7

3.9

0.8

-7.1

2.2

3.5

0.9

1.4

7.0

0.4

3.4

-0.8

-7.2

1.2

2.6

0.8 0.4

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System RPMs and Enplanements

RPMs Enplanements

3.2

-3.4

0.9

-2.0

-8.4

-1.5

0.4

-1.6 -2.0

5.3

-0.2

2.7

1.4

-7.3

-0.5

3.4

0.1

0.8

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System ASMs and Aircraft Operations 

Operations ASMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

18 

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic9 ASMs increased 0.8 percent in 2013 after increasing just 0.1 percent in 2012. 

Departures were down 1.7 percent for the year after falling 2.0 percent in FY 2012. Mainline 

carrier ASMs were up 1.3 percent for the year, while regional carrier ASMs fell 2.8 percent. At 

the end of FY 2013, domestic ASMs were still 7.0 percent below pre-recession levels (2007) 

with departures down 15.3 percent. 

Unlike 2012, domestic passenger enplanements grew at a slower rate than ASMs in 2013, up 

0.1 percent for the year. Domestic passengers were unchanged from 2012 levels in the first 

half of the year, and showed only a slight improvement in the second half of the year. On a 

year-over-year basis, mainline carrier enplanements were up 0.8 percent for the year while 

regional carrier enplanements fell for the second consecutive year, down 2.2 percent, marking 

the first time since deregulation in 1978 that this sector of the industry has recorded back-toback declines in passengers. 

 

9 The 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Capacity*

Fiscal Year 2013

Departures ASMs *Scheduled and Non‐Scheduled
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

19 

Unlike the passenger counts, domestic RPMs grew faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs up 

1.1 percent in FY 2013. After minimal growth in the first quarter (up 0.2 percent), the pace of 

growth in domestic RPMs picked up in the second quarter (up 1.6 percent) and then averaged 

1.2 percent during the second half of the year. For the year, mainline carrier RPM growth was 

1.5 percent, while regional carrier RPMs declined 1.9 percent. 

Domestic carrier load factor increased 0.3 points to 83.5 percent, with both the mainline and 

regional carriers groups posting record high loads. Mainline carrier load factor increased 0.2 

points from FY 2012 to 84.2 percent, while regional carrier load factor increased 0.7 points to 

78.4 percent. 

Since FY 2007, total domestic capacity has decreased by 7.0 percent. Mainline carriers have 

reduced their domestic capacity by 8.0 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than 

offsetting the growth of low-cost carriers, while regional carrier capacity has remained virtually 

flat (down 0.4 percent since 2007). During the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have 

decreased 3.6 percent, while enplanements have fallen 6.6 percent. In comparison, over this 

same period, regional carrier RPMs increased 3.4 percent while enplanements have fallen 0.5 

percent. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen from 87.6 percent in 

2007 to 86.7 percent in 2013, with the share of domestic RPMs flown by mainline carriers 

dropping from 88.3 percent to 87.5 percent during the same period. In 2013 the regional 

carriers’ domestic passenger share was 23.8 percent, up from 22.6 percent in 2007. 

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Traffic*

Fiscal Year 2013

Enplanements RPMs *Scheduled and Non‐Scheduled
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

20 

 

523.1 516.2 533.9 521.6 476.8 473.6 488.4 494.8 498.8

146.4 152.2 156.2 159.1

154.0 161.6 161.7 159.0 155.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Millions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

21 

International Passenger Markets

U.S. carrier international ASMs were up 0.9 percent and departures were up 0.2 percent in 

2013. ASMs increased in the Latin, and Pacific markets, up 5.6 and 2.0 percent, respectively; 

but decreased 2.9 percent in the Atlantic market. 

U.S. carrier international RPMs were up a 2.3 percent and passenger enplanements were up 

2.6 percent in 2013. The Atlantic market posted mixed results, with RPMs falling 0.8 percent 

while enplanements increased 0.4 percent. RPMs and enplanements increased 6.1 and 3.9 

percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while RPMs and enplanements increased 

3.4 and 2.4 percent, respectively, in the Pacific market. 

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Capacity*

Fiscal Year 2013

ASMs Departures

*Scheduled and non‐scheduled ops

Source:  DOT F‐41
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

22 

The international load factor increased 1.2 percentage points overall in 2013 to 82.6 percent. 

Load factor increased in all markets: in the Latin market load factor was up 0.4 points to 81.0 

percent; in the Pacific market load factor was up 1.1 points to 83.1 percent; and in the North 

Atlantic market the load factor increased by 1.8 points to 83.3 percent. 

In 2013, 54 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin 

America market. The remaining 46 percent of international passengers was split between the 

Atlantic market (29 percent) and the Pacific market (17 percent). 

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Oct-12 Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Traffic*

Fiscal Year 2013

RPMs Enplanements

*Scheduled and non‐scheduled ops

Source:  DOT F‐41
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

23 

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in 

the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and 

nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes 

such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars. 

U.S. air carriers flew 34.8 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2013, down 4.8 percent from 

2012. Domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increased slightly (a 0.7 percent increase) to 

12.4 billion. However, international RTMs decreased by 7.5 percent to 22.4 billion. 

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 79.7 percent of total RTMs in 2013, with 

passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers decreased 

5.0 percent in 2013 from 29.2 billion to 27.7 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers 

were 7.1 billion in 2013, 3.8 percent lower than in 2012.

16.1 15.4 15.2 14.4 11.9 12.8 12.0 12.3 12.4

23.1 24.0 24.7 24.4

19.1

23.1 25.2 24.3 22.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Billions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Cargo Revenue Ton Miles

Domestic RTMs International RTMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

24 

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four components consisting of 

Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ In 2013 total international RTMs decreased 

7.5 percent from 24.3 billion to 22.4 billion with all regions posting declines. The largest 

decrease was posted in the ‘Other International’ category where cargo RTMs fell by 14.6 

percent from 6.80 billion RTMs to 5.81 billion RTMs. The Pacific market saw cargo RTMs fall 

by 4.5 percent from 8.57 billion RTMs to 8.18 billion RTMs, while the Atlantic market saw a 

greater contraction of 5.2 percent from 7.03 billion to 6.66 billion. The Latin market had 

smallest decline as cargo RTMs fell from 1.87 billion RTMs to 1.79 billion RTMs a decrease of 

4.4 percent. 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Financial Results 

U.S. commercial air carriers posted a net profit of $ 5.3 billion during FY 2013 after reporting a 

net profit of $204 million one year earlier. 

-1.2

5.6

10.2

-2.0

0.8

9.7

7.6 7.6

10.8

-11.7

-0.2

5.9

-18.6

-7.8

3.4

2.0

0.2

5.3

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Billions of Dollars ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Operating and Net Profit/Loss

Operating Profit/Loss Net Profit/Loss Source: DOT Form 41 & 298C
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

25 

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) for FY 2013 were up 0.8 percent from FY 2012. 

Passenger carriers saw their revenue increase 1.3 percent despite the minimal increase in 

traffic. The increase in revenue underscored the ability of passenger carriers to push through 

fare increases and to offer value-added services that leisure and business passengers were 

willing to buy. Revenues for cargo carriers fell by 1.2 percent with the slowdown in cargo traffic 

after rising 2.2 percent in FY 2012. 

During the same period, operating expenses for all carriers fell 0.9 percent following a 3.7 

percent increase in FY 2012. The decrease in operating expenses during FY 2013 was driven 

by a 0.6 percent fall in the price of fuel for the year. 

In FY 2013, passenger carriers reported operating income of $9.6 billion and net income of $4.9 

billion, while air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $1.2 billion and a net income of 

$415 million. In the domestic market, passenger carriers generated an operating profit of $5.9 

billion and net income of $2.4 billion. In the international market, this carrier group posted 

operating and net profits of $3.7 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. Cargo carriers posted an 

operating profit of $4.4 billion and a net income of $2.8 billion in domestic markets. In 

international markets, the cargo carriers reported an operating loss of $3.2 billion and net loss of 

$2.4 billion. 

The rebound in the industry’s financial results in FY 2013 is largely due to a turnaround in the 

performance of the network carriers. After posting a net loss in FY 2012 of $971 million, this 

carrier group posted operating profits of $7.1 billion and net income of $3.7 billion. For the eight 

reporting low-cost carriers, operating profits totaled $1.8 billion and net income totaled $1.0 

billion for the full year. 

Capacity discipline combined with stable demand resulted in a modest increase in mainline 

carrier passenger yield for the year. Domestic mainline carrier passenger yield increased 2.4 

percent in 2013. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

26 

 `

Of the reporting regional carriers, operating profits totaled $0.4 billion and net income totaled 

$133 million for FY 2013, despite domestic yield falling 11.6 percent. As the industry continues 

to restructure, network carriers have negotiated contracts with their regional partners that shift 

more of the financial risk of contract flying to the regional carriers. Since 2007, regional carrier 

yield is down 48.4 percent in real terms (compared to an increase of 3.1 percent in mainline 

carrier yield for the same period). In addition, longer trip lengths (due to a growing number of 

larger and faster regional jet aircraft entering the fleet) and higher load factors have also 

contributed to the drop in regional yield. All other things being equal, an increase in either the 

trip length or the load factor results in a drop in yield since fee-for-departure revenues are 

spread over a broader base of RPMs. 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2013 Aircraft Fleets 

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers 

are retiring older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500, 757/767, and MD-80) and 

replacing them with more technologically advanced A320 and 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The 

regional carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their 

fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft. 

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is 

estimated at 6,727 for 2013, a decrease of 184 aircraft from 2012. This includes 

3,774 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft (over 90 seats), 740 mainline air carrier cargo 

aircraft, and 2,213 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops, and pistons). 

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Revenue per Mile (

₵)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Yield

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

27 

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet increased by 41 aircraft in 2013, following a 3 unit 

increase in 2012, as both network carriers and low cost carriers added to their fleets. Despite 

the increase in the fleet in 2013, the mainline carrier fleet now stands at 15.9 percent below 

(714 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. Unlike the mainline carrier fleet, the regional carrier fleet 

shrank in 2013, falling by 127 units. Since reaching a peak in 2007, the U.S. regional carrier 

fleet has been reduced by more than 20 percent (567 units). Consolidation among regional 

carriers and high fuel prices continue to spur retirements of 50 seat and smaller regional jets 

as well as small piston and turboprop aircraft.

 

3,774

3,733

3,730

3,722

3,694

3,784

3,982

3,897

3,906

2,213

2,340

2,566

2,613

2,653

2,682

2,780

2,732

2,779

740

838

870

850

841

960

974

1,012

1,001

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

2013E

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Number of Aircraft

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Aircraft Fleet

Cargo Regionals Mainline AC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

28 

GENERAL AVIATION 

General aviation industry continued its modest growth, especially with the help from strong 

growth in rotorcraft, multi-engine piston, and the agricultural aircraft segment of the turboprop 

deliveries, as well as a moderate growth in the single-engine piston sector. Slow economic 

recovery and economic uncertainties continued to impact the turbojet deliveries. Based on 

figures released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. 

manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,615 aircraft in CY 2013, 6.4 percent more 

than CY 2012. This translates into the third year of increase in shipments. Overall piston 

deliveries increased by 6.5 percent, with single-engine deliveries up 4.5 percent and the much 

smaller multi-engine category up 27.0 percent. In the turbine categories, turbojet deliveries fell 

by 3.7 percent. Turboprop deliveries were up by 13.8 percent in 2013, even though a 

substantial portion of the deliveries were for the export market. U.S. billings in CY 2013 were 

totaled $11.1 billion, up 38.1 percent from 2012, contributed by deliveries of more advanced 

models.

General Aviation operations at combined FAA and contract towers decreased 1.2 percent in 

2013, led by a 2.8 percent decline in itinerant operations, despite a 0.7 percent increase in 

local operations. General aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

29 

2.8 percent, while the number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers 

declined by 0.5 percent. 

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization from the General Aviation 

and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey), which has been conducted annually since 1977, as 

baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates are applied. Beginning with the 2004 GA 

Survey, there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements 

included conducting 100 percent samples for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft 

in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand under Part 135. In addition, the sample design 

was revised to stratify by aircraft type (15 categories), FAA region (9 categories), whether the 

aircraft was manufactured in the past 5 years (2 categories), and whether the aircraft operates 

under a Part 135 certificate (2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was 

incorporated to allow owners/operators of multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their 

entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an additional aircraft category (light sport aircraft) was 

added. As a result of these changes the sample size nearly doubled. Between 2003 and 2005 

large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22.8 percent, total rotorcraft up by 

33.7 percent) and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in many categories 

occurred. The results of 2011 survey were not available to use. Therefore, estimates of 2011 

fleet and hours were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil 

aircraft registration database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and 

utilization by type of aircraft and age of the fleet. The results of the 2012 Survey, the latest one 

available, were consistent with the results of past surveys since 2004. This reinforces our 

belief that methodological improvements have brought about superior estimates relative to 

those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast. 

In 2010 FAA issued a Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. 

According to this rule, all aircraft registered in the U.S. had to re-register over the three-year 

period from 2011 to 2013, and afterwards registrations must be renewed every three years. 

The effect of this Rule was recorded in the results of 2012 GA Survey that the number of active 

GA aircraft went down by 6.4 percent, from 223,370 in 2010 to 209,034 in 2012. The biggest 

decline was in the piston aircraft category, in which the number of active aircraft decreased 7.9 

percent from 155,419 to 143,160. 

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about the impact of the re-registration rule, fleet attrition 

and aircraft utilization, along with General Aircraft Manufacturer’s Association (GAMA) aircraft 

shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estimated to have decreased 3.0 percent 

in 2013 at 202,865. General aviation flight hours are estimated to have decreased by 1.8 

percent in 2013 at 24.0 million. 

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Student 

pilot numbers had been in decline for many years, but in 2010 the FAA issued a rule that 

increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 

36 months to 60 months. As a result, according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike 

Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots at the end of 2010 increased by 

64.8 percent, or approximately by 47,000 pilots, compared to calendar year end 2009. While 

the impact of the new rule on the long term trend in student pilots has yet to be fully 

determined, by the end of 2013, the number of student pilots slightly increased by 0.3 percent 

from its 2012 level to 120,285. The average age of a U.S. pilot in 2013 was 44.8 years old.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

30 

FAA OPERATIONS 

In 2013, activity at FAA facilities declined for the sixth consecutive year. Commercial air traffic 

activity fell for the fifth time in six years as air carrier activity fell slightly while air taxi activity 

declined more substantially. The declines in activity were a continuation of a trend that started 

in the second half of FY 2011. Noncommercial activity also declined as both general aviation 

and military levels fell. 

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports (the set of 516 towers where FAA 

provides service, ranging from Atlanta (the busiest with 914,000 operations) to towers with as 

few as 7,000 operations (Branson, MO) was 49.9 million operations in 2013, down 1.3 percent 

from 2012 and 27.3 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. In 2013, commercial 

activity (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers fell 

by 1.3 percent for the second consecutive year. Air carrier operations were down 0.8 percent 

while commuter/air taxi operations declined 2.1 percent. Commercial operations in 2013 were 

17.3 percent lower than their peak in 2005. 

 

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract 

towers decreased 1.2 percent in 2013 following a 0.4 percent increase in 2012. General aviation 

activity (25.8 million) was down 1.2 percent while military activity (2.6 million) was down 1.0 

percent. At the end of 2013, non-commercial aircraft activity was 33.7 percent below the activity 

in 2000. 

In FY 2013, total operations at the large hubs decreased by 0.9 percent to 12.5 million, and 

constituted 24.7 percent of all towered operations. Activity at the medium hubs fell by 2.9 

percent to 5.3 million while activity at the small and non-hub towers decreased by 1.1 percent, 

from 32.8 million to 32.4 million. The share of total towered operations at the medium, and small 

and non-hub towers in FY 2013 were 10.3 and 65.0 percent, respectively. Since 2000, 

operations at large hubs have declined by 12.4 percent, while operations at medium hubs have 

fallen by 41.6 percent, and operations at small and non-hub towers have declined by 29.1 

percent. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

31 

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the “Core 30” airports. These airports 

represent the top 30 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except Memphis which 

is a major freight hub) and account for about 70 percent of commercial passengers. Commercial 

activity at the Core 30 airports peaked in 2005, but subsequent industry restructuring has 

resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since then. In 2013, 

commercial activity at the Core 30 airports fell by 1.3 percent from the previous year and was 

10.2 percent below 2005 activity levels. Of the Core 30 airports, nine recorded increases in 

activity from 2012 with the largest increases occurring at Dallas-Fort Worth (up 4.7 percent) and 

Honolulu (up 3.8 percent). The largest decreases in activity occurred at Memphis (down 16.2 

percent), and Baltimore (down 4.1 percent). Only six of the Core 30 airports exceeded 2005 

peak activity levels during FY 2013, unchanged from the number in 2011 and 2012. 

 

37.0 35.8 35.9

34.1

30.6

29.2 28.6 28.7 28.4

26.1 25.2 25.3 24.8

22.4 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Activity 

at Combined FAA and Contract Towers 

Non Commercial Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

32 

Since 2005 there has been a pronounced shift in demand which is reflected in the relative 

growth of commercial operations across the Core 30 airports. Commercial operations at San 

Francisco (up 22.0 percent), New York-Kennedy (up 13.8 percent), and Charlotte (up 10.1 

percent) have increased the most relative to their 2005 activity levels. Commercial operations 

at Dulles (down 42.9 percent) and Memphis (down 38.7 percent) have shown the largest 

declines from 2005 levels. These activity level shifts reflect the impact of airline industry 

restructuring. The demise of Independence Air and United’s continuing restructuring of its 

network resulted in a dramatic reduction of operations at Dulles; while the bankruptcy of Delta, 

its subsequent merger with Northwest, and the restructuring of the combined network has led 

to a dramatic shrinking of operations in Memphis. 

 

Non-commercial activity, 91 percent of which is in general aviation, decreased 1.2 percent in 

2013 with general aviation activity falling by the same amount. Breaking down the general 

aviation activity by hub size, general aviation activity at large hubs rose by 0.3 percent, while 

activity at medium hubs fell 2.6 percent. General aviation activity at small and non-hubs 

decreased by 1.5 percent. However, general aviation activity at all hub categories has fallen 

substantially since 2005, down 40.3, 38.7, and 27.6 percent, respectively, at large, medium, and 

small/non hubs. Rising fuel prices, stagnant household incomes, falling household wealth, and a 

shrinking pilot population are all viewed as contributing to the long run decline in general aviation 

activity. 

In 2013, total activity at FAA en-route centers (40.0 million) fell for the second year in a row, 

down 2.3 percent from 2012 levels, and 15.8 percent below their peak in 2005. Commercial 

activity decreased 2.2 percent with air carrier and commuter/air taxi operations down 2.0 and 2.9 

percent, respectively. Non-commercial activity was down 2.6 percent for the year as general 

aviation activity posted a small decline (down 0.5 percent) while military activity decreased 9.9 

percent. In 2013, air carrier operations were 7.3 percent below their 2005 activity levels and air 

taxi/commuter operations were 13.7 percent below activity levels for 2005. Operations for the 

general aviation and military user groups were 23.0 and 58.6 percent below their 2005 activity 

levels, respectively. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SFO

JFK

CLT

DENDCA

MIA

EWR

ATL

DFW

LAX

IAH

LGA

ORD

SEAHNL

BWILAS

MDW

SAN

BOS

MCO

FLL

PHL

PHX

MSP

DTW

TPASLC

MEM

IAD

Percent of FY 2005 Ops

Airport

Only Six of Core 30 Airports 

are above 2005 Activity Levels

FY 2013 VS. FY 2005 Commercial Activity
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

33 

35.1 33.8 34.7 34.1

31.0 31.0

32.4 32.6 31.9

12.4 12.3 12.1 11.3

9.3 9.5 8.8 8.3 8.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Handled at 

FAA En Route Centers

Commercial Non-Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

34 

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS 2014 – 2034 

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the 

aviation industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the 

process is filled with uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Once again, the U.S. aviation 

industry has shown that the demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent 

downward spiral caused by the Great Recession. As 2014 begins, lingering questions remain. 

Are the U.S. and global economies on firm ground? Have the structural changes undertaken by 

the industry over the past 5 years revamped the industry from one of boom-to-bust to one of 

sustainable profits? Has industry consolidation finished? 

 

The FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts consistent with the emerging trends 

and structural changes currently taking place within the aviation industry. The intent of these 

forecasts is to accurately predict future demand; however, due to the large uncertainty of the 

operating environment, the variance around the forecasts is wider than it was in prior years. 

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that 

explain and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition, 

the commercial aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will 

be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not 

assume further contractions of the industry through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation. They 

also do not assume any drastic changes in federal government operations. 

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing 

the commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published by 

airlines through Innovata. To generate the short-term forecast (i.e., one year out) current monthly 

trends are used in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to 

develop monthly capacity and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal 

and calendar years 2014-15. The medium to long-term forecasts (2015-2034) are based on the 

results of econometric models. 

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts conducted at 

industry meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business 

Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees in May 2013 and January 2014 along with the results 

of the 2012 General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. The assumptions have been updated 

by FAA analysts to reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information 

from industry experts. 

The FAA also presents the draft forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation 

associations, who are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and 

forecasts. Their comments and/or suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as 

appropriate. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

35 

ECONOMIC FORECASTS 

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by IHS 

Global Insight, Inc. to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world 

and individual country economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the 

demand for international aviation services. Annual historical data and economic forecasts are 

presented in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government 

fiscal year (October through September) basis, whereas international forecasts are presented 

on a calendar year basis. 

As the recovery is now approaching its fifth year, the headwinds that have been faced by the 

economy appear to be diminishing. IHS Global Insight expects the recovery to begin to 

accelerate and the U.S. economy to grow faster than in the past few years. In the U.S., private 

sector debt levels have been coming down and public sector debt levels have stabilized. The 

housing market had its best performance since 2007 despite a rise in mortgage rates in the 

summer of 2013. The most recent data suggest a firming of the employment market. In the 

global economy, the outlook for Europe is improving and recent data from China still points to 

a “soft” landing (e.g. GDP growth remaining above 7 percent). 

The boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus has faded, leaving the economy to depend on 

underlying strength in private demand. Growth is projected to accelerate throughout FY 2014 

as the drag from the Federal government shutdown, reductions in government spending, and 

tepid consumer spending during the last Christmas holiday diminishes over the year. On a 

quarter-by-quarter basis, U.S. economic growth is projected to range between 2.2 to 3.4 

percent for the next two years. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

36 

The modest pace of economic recovery has been most evident in the nation’s unemployment 

rate. Since peaking at 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2009, the unemployment rate 

has come down gradually, dropping to 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2013. IHS 

Global Insight is projecting despite the pickup in economic growth, the unemployment rate will 

drop only modestly in FY 2014, averaging 7.3 percent for the year. The slow fall in the 

unemployment rate will continue to keep income growth in check. Real disposable income 

(income after taxes) increased an estimated 1.5 percent in 2013. The recovery in real 

disposable income is projected to continue with increases of 2.3 percent in 2014 and 3.4 

percent in 2015 as unemployment falls and the role of taxes in any long term fiscal solution 

becomes clearer. 

In the medium term, (the four year period between 2015 and 2019), U.S. economic growth is 

projected to average 3.0 percent per year with rates ranging between 2.9 and 3.2 percent. 

Income growth picks up during the same period averaging 3.2 percent per year. For the 

balance of the forecast period, both U.S. real GDP growth and real income growth slow to 

around 2.4 percent annually. The long-term stability of U.S. economic growth depends on 

sustained growth in the workforce and capital stock along with improved productivity and 

competitiveness. 

2.2

2.6

2.8

3.1

3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3

Annual Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

by Quarter

Source: IHS Global Insight Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

37 

 

 

2.8

1.6

2.3

3.2 3.2

3.1

2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: IHS Global Insight

1.4 1.5

2.3

3.4

3.2

3.5

2.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Real Disposable Income

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

38 

After the price of oil decreased by 2.0 percent in 2013, IHS Global Insight projects the price, as 

measured by the Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to fall slightly to $98 per barrel in 2014 (down 2.7 

percent from 2013). Oil prices are forecast to decline to around $92 to $93 per barrel by 

2015/16 and then gradually increase to $118 per barrel by 2025. For the remainder of the 

forecast period, oil prices are projected to grow at the same rate as general inflation, reaching 

$139 per barrel by 2034. 

Inflation continues to remain in check as energy prices fall in 2013 and 2014. After increasing 

1.6 percent in FY 2013, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI), is projected to rise 

1.5 percent and 1.6 percent in 2014 and 2015, respectively. After 2015, consumer price 

inflation is projected to grow between 1.9 and 2.2 percent per year for the balance of the 

forecast. 

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast 

uses high and low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. The optimistic and 

pessimistic economic growth cases are based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios from 

IHS Global Insight’s January 2014 U.S. economic forecast and go out to 2023. The optimistic 

case sees a successful and partisan-free debt ceiling increase, a credible plan to address 

sovereign-debt issues in Europe, faster foreign economic growth, along with faster 

employment growth and sustained improvements in the housing sector. Real GDP growth 

between 2013 and 2023 in the optimistic case averages 3.3 percent annually compared to 2.7 

percent in the base case. The pessimistic case assumes partisan politics turn the task of 

raising the debt ceiling into a political crisis and assumes that in the face of uncertainty, cutting 

7.1

-2.0

-2.7

-5.7

0.1

3.4

2.1

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2034

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

39 

spending is the best solution. In addition, the Eurozone crisis intensifies reducing demand for 

U.S. exports. The private sector retrenches and the housing market slows down, and the U.S. 

economy continues with growth below 1.5 percent in 2014-15 before finally picking up. Real 

GDP growth in the pessimistic case averages 2.1 percent annually between 2013 and 2023, 

0.6 percentage points lower than the base case. Further details about the high and low 

scenarios can be found in Appendix A. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

40 

World Economy 

After weathering the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression, a deepening 

recession in Europe and political stalemates in the U.S. over what to do with the U.S. federal 

budget, worldwide economic activity is estimated by IHS Global Insight to have expanded by 

2.1 percent in 2013, down from 2.4 in 2012. The advanced economies (U.S., Canada, 

Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan) posted growth in output ranging from a 

low of -0.2 percent to a high of 2.3 percent. The emerging market economies grew 4.7 

percent, 0.1 points lower than in 2012 with the economy of China up 7.7 percent, India up 4.6 

percent, Brazil up 2.5 percent, and Russia up 1.7 percent. In 2014, economic growth is 

projected to accelerate to 3.0 percent as the headwinds of the past few years, deleveraging in 

the private sector and public sector austerity begin to ease. While growth in the U.S. and in 

the emerging market economies edges up, the recovery in Europe continues to be weak, 

especially in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Beyond 2014 for the balance of the forecast period 

world real GDP is projected to increase an average of 3.2 percent per year. 

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions will continue to have the world’s highest 

economic growth rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at 

annual rates of 4.3 and 4.0 percent a year, respectively, over the forecast period (2014-2034). 

2.3

0.7 0.8

2.4

4.2

2.9

2.7

4.0

4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3

2.5

1.7 1.7

2.4

2.8

2.4

2.1

3.2

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

2011 2012 2013 2013-2034

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

by World Region

Total Europe/Africa/ME Latin America & Caribbean Asia-Pacific Canada World

Source: IHS Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 Sept 2013
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

41 

China, which became the world’s second largest economy by 2013 (surpassing Japan) is 

projected to grow 6.1 percent a year, while India, projected to see its GDP almost quadruple in 

size, is growing at an average rate of 6.7 percent a year during the forecast period. In contrast, 

Japan grows at just 0.9 percent a year over the forecast horizon as structural impediments, and an 

aging population continues to limit growth10. 

 

10 IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 September 2013
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

42 

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS 

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional 

carriers) are presented in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data 

and forecasts. 

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are displayed in 

Tables 10 through 18, 21, and 23. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and 

forecasts. 

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 24 through 27. These tables 

provide year-to-year historical and forecast data. 

Tables 19 and 20 provide year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 22 

provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet. 

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 28 through 31. These tables provide year-toyear historical data and forecasts. 

Tables 32 through 34 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. 

Commercial Aviation Forecasts 

System capacity is projected to increase modestly (up 1.5 percent) in 2014. In the domestic 

market, mainline carrier capacity expanded only slightly (1.3 percent) in 2013 but is projected 

to grow at an even slower rate (up 0.8 percent) in 2014, while capacity for the regional carriers 

is projected to post its first increase since FY 2011 (up 2.2 percent). In the international sector, 

capacity is forecast to increase slowly in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, respectively, and 

increase modestly in the Latin market -- resulting in an overall international capacity increase 

of 2.7 percent. 

Passenger demand shows minimal growth in 2014 with system RPMs forecast to grow 1.4 

percent, the same rate as in 2013. An upturn in growth is projected for the 2015-19 period, 

coincident with faster economic growth as system RPMs and passengers increase at an 

average annual rate of 3.4 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Over the same time period, system 

capacity growth averages of 3.3 percent per year. For the overall forecast period (2014-34), 

system capacity is projected to increase an average of 2.7 percent a year. Supported by a 

growing U.S. and world economy, system RPMs are projected to increase 2.8 percent a year, 

with regional carriers (up 2.3 percent a year) growing slower than mainline carriers (up 2.8 

percent a year). System passengers are projected to increase an average of 2.2 percent a 

year, with mainline carriers growing at a higher rate (up 2.3 percent a year) than their regional 

counterparts (up 1.9 percent). By 2034, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 

1.75 trillion ASMs and transport 1.15 billion enplaned passengers a total of 1.47 trillion 

passenger miles. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

43 

Planes will remain crowded, with load factors projected to grow moderately during the early 

years of the forecast period then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.8 percent in 2034 

(up 0.7 points compared to the beginning of the forecast period in 2014). Passenger trip 

length is forecast to increase by more than 141 miles over the forecast period to 1,276 miles in 

2034 (up 7 miles annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in 

the relatively longer international and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights. 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Millions of Passengers

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System Enplanements

Regionals Mainline
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

44 

Domestic Markets 

After expanding slightly in FY 2013 (up 0.8 percent), domestic capacity is projected to increase 

by 1.0 percent in 2014. Mainline carrier capacity is forecast to be up 0.8 percent while regional 

carrier capacity is projected to increase by 2.2 percent, the first increase since 2011. Domestic 

commercial carrier capacity growth picks up in 2015-2019 period (up 2.7 percent per year) as 

U.S. economic growth accelerates, with mainline carriers growing slower than regional 

carriers, 2.6 percent versus 3.0 percent. For the entire forecast period (2014-2034), overall 

domestic capacity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, slower 

than economic growth. Mainline carriers are projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent 

while regional carriers are projected to grow slightly faster at 2.3 percent a year. 

Although economic growth is picking up in the U.S., U.S. carrier domestic RPM growth in 

2014 is projected at 0.9 percent. Traffic growth is projected to be sluggish throughout the year 

as carriers continue to keep capacity growth in check. Mainline carrier RPMs are projected to 

increase by 0.7 percent during 2014, while regional carrier RPMs are projected to increase at a 

faster rate (1.8 percent). Traffic growth improves over the 2015-19 period with annual RPM 

growth averaging 2.9 percent as the economic recovery gains steam. For the balance of the 

forecast period (2019-2034) modest economic growth and falling real yield drive domestic 

RPM growth of 1.9 percent a year. Over the entire forecast period (2014-2034), domestic 

RPMs grow an average of 2.2 percent a year with mainline carriers growing more slowly than 

the regional carriers (2.1 percent a year versus 2.3 percent a year, respectively). 

1.3

0.8

2.0

-2.8

2.2 2.3

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2013 2014 2014-34

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic ASMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

45 

Enplanements are forecast to grow slightly (up 0.6 percent) in 2014 after a 0.1 percent 

increase in 2013. Similar to RPMs, passenger growth is expected to pick up in the 2015-2019 

period (up 2.7 percent a year) as the recovery gains momentum and then average 1.6 percent 

per year for the period 2019-2034. Over the entire forecast period, domestic enplanements 

are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent with mainline and regional 

carriers growing at the same rate. 

The continued modest recovery in demand, coupled with restricted capacity growth, provided 

pricing power for the mainline carriers during 2013, with nominal yield increasing 2.4 percent 

(up 0.8 percent in real terms). In spite of slow demand growth, continued tight capacity will 

provide support for higher fares in 2014, with an increase in nominal yield of 3.0 percent (1.5 

percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, nominal yield is projected to increase at 

an average rate of 1.4 percent a year, while in real terms it is projected to decline at an 

average rate of 0.5 percent a year. The decline in real yield over the forecast period assumes 

technological improvements, competition between carriers, and the increasing convergence of 

cost structures between network carriers and their low-cost counterparts. The convergence in 

cost structures between the carrier groups arises from gains in productivity as network carriers 

retire fuel inefficient aircraft and hold the line on labor costs while existing low-cost carriers 

contend with aging fleets, maturing work forces, and larger and more complex networks. 

1.5

0.7

2.1

-1.9

1.8

2.3

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2014-34

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic RPMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

46 

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow 

more slowly than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.3 percent per year for 

departures versus 2.2 percent for RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three 

operational measures: aircraft size, load factor, and trip length. 

Overall domestic aircraft size increased by 1.6 seats to 124.9 in 2013 as a result of the 

combination of the increased mainline carrier domestic capacity share and increases in the 

aircraft size of the mainline carrier group. Mainline carrier aircraft size increased 1.2 seats with 

the retirement of older aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s, 737-300/400/500, and 757’s). Regional aircraft 

size remained unchanged despite the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet 

aircraft entered the fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft are forecast to increase in 2014 (up 1.3 

seats) as both mainline and regional carrier aircraft will increase in size. Over the balance of 

the forecast (2015-2034), domestic seats per aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 

134.6 seats by 2034, an average increase of 0.4 seats per year. 

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier 

fleet plans, publicly known aircraft order books, and the FAA’s expectations of the changing 

domestic competitive landscape. In the near-term (through 2015), the forecast incorporates 

several assumptions: 1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) the 

retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 3) the shifting of widebody and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 4) growing use of 70-90 

seat regional jet aircraft. 

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their older narrow-body aircraft (A320’s/B757-

200/300) in their domestic route networks with next generation, narrow-body aircraft like the 

A320 Neo and the 737 Max. The use of smaller aircraft, like the 100-seat Embraer 190, to 

supplement carrier route structures will be limited. The use of the next generation, narrowbody aircraft will allow mainline carriers to better serve their customers by more closely 

matching supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers), and improve 

profitability through lower operating costs. 

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2013 by 1.2 seats to 153.9 seats, and is 

projected to increase by another 1.2 seats in 2014. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers 

is projected to increase by 0.3 seats in 2015 and then gradually increase for the balance of the 

forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the mainline group will increase by 7.5 seats 

between 2013 and 2034, going from 153.9 to 161.4. 

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a faster pace than that 

of the mainline carriers. The faster growth in aircraft size for regional carriers is stimulated by 

continued deliveries of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as 

reductions in the 50-seat and under jet fleet. The larger share of 70 to 90-seat regional jets in 

the fleet, coupled with 50-seat jet and small turboprop retirements over the next few years, 

increases the average seating capacity of the regional fleet from 56.1 seats in 2013 to 58.3 

seats by 2016. Over the course of the forecast, seats per aircraft for regional carriers 

increases an average of 0.5 seats per year to 66.6 seats in 2034. The changing aircraft fleet 

mix is narrowing the gap between the size and aircraft types operated by the mainline and 

regional carriers. 

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

47 

The commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 0.3 points during FY 2013 to an all-time 

high of 83.5 percent, with record load factors posted by the mainline and regional carrier 

groups. The mainline carrier group posted a load factor of 84.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage 

points from 2012. Regional carrier load factor increased 0.7 points to 78.4 percent. In 2014, 

the domestic load factor is forecast to decrease 0.1 points to 83.4 percent as mainline carrier 

load factor remains unchanged while regional carrier load factor decreases by 0.3 percentage 

points. Thereafter, the commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to 84.7 percent 

by 2034. 

In 2013 the average domestic passenger trip length increased by 8.8 miles to 892.4 miles in 

total, after increasing by 3.5 miles in 2012. Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by 2.6 

miles in 2014 as carriers continue to restructure their networks and realign capacity. After 

2014, trip length is projected to remain relatively stable for a number of years before steadily 

increasing from 2018 onwards, reaching 937.9 miles by 2034. The increase in trip length 

reflects longer trips flown by the mainline and regional carrier group. Mainline carrier trip 

length increases as service in thinner, relatively shorter haul markets is dropped or 

relinquished to regional partners and replaced with longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip 

length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or reduced as more of the 

larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets continue to penetrate thinner longer-haul markets 

previously served with mainline equipment. 

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of 

connecting versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. 

airline industry restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities 

and airport activity levels can vary significantly. 

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) 

passengers over time to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an 

indicator of the tendency of the average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The 

closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart 

below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry peaked in 2002, and then trailed 

downward to its lowest level (1.32 enplanements for every O&D passenger) by 2007. The 

decline in the ratio during this six year period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the 

network carriers and a rising passenger share for the low-cost carriers. As demand for air 

travel fell during the great recession and fuel costs skyrocketed, the ratio jumped up to over 

1.34 in 2009. Since then the ratio has been in a narrow range between 1.34 and 1.35 

enplanements for every O&D passenger, but the 2013 figure was the lowest since 2008. The 

FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of domestic traffic connectivity and these 

trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger enplanement totals. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

48 

International Markets 

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers 

The FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand11 for travel between the 

United States and three world travel areas: Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico and the 

Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific, as well as for U.S.–Canadian transborder traffic. These 

forecasts are based on historical passenger statistics provided by the U.S. Customs and 

Border Protection12 and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic 

projections from Global Insight, Inc. 

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 

183.6 million in CY 2013, 4.4 percent higher than in 2012. Passenger demand growth slows in 

2014 (up 3.7 percent) but picks up again in 2015 (up 5.3 percent) as the U.S. and world 

economic recovery solidifies. For the balance of the forecast period, stable worldwide 

economic growth leads international passengers to grow at an average rate of 4.2 percent a 

year, totaling 434.8 million in 2034. 

 

11 The sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers. 

12 Customs and border protection data is processed and released by the Department of Commerce.

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

1.36

1.37

1.38

1.39

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Ratio

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Enplanements per 

Origin-Destination Passenger

Source: DOT T100 and O&D Survey
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

49 

In the Latin America region, sustained economic growth drives passenger growth to an 

average rate of 4.7 percent a year over the entire forecast period (2014-2034). The highest 

growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 6.0 percent) while the largest market 

in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.6 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth 

are projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 0.2 and 

2.8 percent a year, respectively). 

Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific market boost passenger demand an average of 4.2 

percent per year. Taiwan, South Korea, India and China (passenger growth of 4.5, 4.5, 5.2 

and 6.5 percent a year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the 

region. Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most established in the region) is 

projected to be well below the regional average at 2.9 percent a year. 

In the more mature Atlantic market, the Open Skies agreement between the European Union 

and the United States along with competition between global airline alliances helps fuel 

passenger growth of 4.1 percent a year over the forecast period. Over the 20-year forecast 

horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top four Atlantic country specific markets, the 

United Kingdom, Germany, France and the Netherlands, is 3.9, 4.6, 3.2, and 3.9 percent, 

respectively. 

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic 

U.S. market (2.0 percent), averaging 3.3 percent a year over the forecast period. 

4.1 

4.7 

4.2 

3.3 

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

Atlantic Latin America Asia/Pacific Canada Transborder

Annual Percent Change

Region

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Passengers to/from U.S.

Calendar Years 2014-2034

Source:  US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;  

data also received from Transport Canada
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

50 

U.S. Flag Air Carriers 

International U.S. commercial air carrier capacity grew slowly in 2013, up 0.9 percent from 

2012. The Atlantic market continued to shrink (down 2.9 percent) after declining 4.4 percent in 

2012. The Latin America market posted a solid 5.6 percent increase while the Pacific market 

showed more modest growth, up 2.0 percent. In 2014, moderate demand and increasing 

competition between global alliances is expected to boost total international capacity by 2.7 

percent as all markets are expected to grow. The fastest growth is projected for the Latin 

market (up 5.2 percent), followed by the Atlantic (up 2.0 percent – the first increase since 

2011), and the Pacific (up 1.0 percent). System-wide capacity is projected to accelerate in 

2015 (up 4.8 percent), fueled by stronger economic growth projected for all world regions, and 

is projected to average 3.9 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate 

growth over the forecast period reflects favorable U.S. and world economic activity as it 

recovers from the global contraction. 

 

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs and enplanements increased 2.3 and 2.6 

percent, respectively, in 2013. Increases in RPMs for the Latin market (up 6.1 percent) and 

the Pacific market (up 3.4 percent) offset a decrease in the Atlantic market (down 0.8 percent). 

In 2014, U.S. carrier international RPMs are expected to increase by 2.8 percent as increases 

in the Latin American market (up 4.5 percent), and in the Atlantic market (up 3.4 percent) more 

than offset a slight decline in the Pacific market (down 0.1 percent). For the balance of the 

forecast, RPMs increase an average of 4.0 percent a year with the fastest growth in the Latin 

region (up 4.7 percent). 

-2.9

2.0

3.2

5.6 

5.2 

4.8 

2.0 

1.0 

4.2 

0.9 

2.7 

4.0 

 (4.0)

 (3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

2013 2014 2014-34

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International ASMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

51 

International enplanement growth for 2014 is projected to be 2.8 percent as solid growth in 

both the Latin (up 3.8 percent) and Atlantic (up 3.1 percent) markets offset a slight decline in 

the Pacific region (down 0.9 percent) where a slowdown in both China and India’s economic 

growth impacts demand. Enplanement growth is projected to rebound to 4.4 percent in 2015 

with all regions showing gains. Over the balance of the forecast period (2016-2034), 

enplanements are forecast to increase an average of 3.8 percent a year with the fastest growth 

in Latin and Pacific markets (up 4.3 and 4.0 percent a year, respectively). 

The growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2014-2034 (3.9 percent a 

year) compares favorably to the growth in overall international passengers (4.2 percent a year, 

including the U.S.-Canada transborder market). Forecasts of international demand assume 

U.S. and foreign flag carriers will benefit from improving economic activity in both the United 

States and world markets. 

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 82.6 percent in 2013, a sharp 

increase of 1.2 points from 2012. Load factor is expected to remain steady in 2014 as capacity 

increases in line with demand. International load factor is projected to remain steady around 

82.5 percent over the balance of the forecast period to 2034 as traffic growth matches capacity 

growth in all three world markets. 

International passenger real yields for U.S. mainline carriers were down 1.3 percent in 2013 as 

decreases in the Pacific market (down 5.9 percent) and in the Latin market (down 2.2 percent) 

offset an increase in the Atlantic market (up 1.9 percent). In 2014 international real yield rises 

by 0.1 percent as strengthening demand in the Atlantic market offsets excess capacity in the 

(0.8)

3.4 3.2 

6.1 

4.5 4.8 

3.4 

(0.1)

4.2 

2.3 

2.8 

4.0 

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

2013 2014 2014-2034

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International RPMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

52 

Latin market and weak demand in the Pacific market. For the remainder of the forecast period, 

real yield decreases an average of 0.6 percent a year. In nominal terms, international yields 

are forecast to increase 1.6 percent in 2014, and then grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent 

over the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive pressures 

(including established and relatively new international carriers) and technological 

improvements will hold the line on fare increases. 

Commercial Air Carriers – Air Cargo 

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are 

fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have 

occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo security regulations by the FAA and 

TSA, maturation of the domestic express market, a shift from air to other modes (especially truck), 

use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the 

increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the 

cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, 

most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity 

will be tied to economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP, real fuel prices, and 

real personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were 

developed with real U.S. PCE and real fuel prices as the primary drivers. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The 

distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis 

of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

Total RTMs shrank by 4.8 percent in 2013 but are forecast to grow slightly (up 0.8 percent) in 

2014. Driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at 

an average annual rate of 4.2 percent for the balance of the forecast period. 

Domestic cargo RTMs increased 0.7 percent in 2013 and are forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2014 

as the U.S. economic recovery strengthens. Between 2014 and 2034, domestic cargo RTMs are 

forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. 

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. 

Thus, this segment’s growth will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic 

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (e.g. e-mail). 

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 70.1 percent 

in 2000 to 88.8 percent in 2013. This is because of the shrinkage of the domestic freight/express 

business for passenger carriers as they have responded to the substantial shocks to the aviation 

system during this time. Shrinking networks, elimination of unprofitable flying, and consolidation 

have reduced opportunities for growth in their freight/express business. The all-cargo share is 

forecast to grow to 90.4 percent by 2034 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and 

ongoing security considerations. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

53 

International cargo RTMs fell for a second year in a row, down 7.5 percent in 2013 as fallout 

from the European debt crisis and a slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide 

trade. They are projected to grow 0.6 percent in 2014 as global trade growth resumes. For 

the forecast period (2014-34) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 

5.4 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 50.3 percent 

in 2000 to 74.6 percent in 2013. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the 

all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 80.9 percent by 

2034. 

0.7 1.2 1.4

-7.5

0.6

5.4

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2013 2014 2014-2034

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

RTMs

Domestic International
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

54 

Commercial Aircraft Fleet 

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 6,727 in 2013 to 8,435 in 2034, an 

average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent or 81 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is 

projected to increase by 17 aircraft in 2014 after shrinking by 184 aircraft in 2013 as the slow 

recovery in demand and rising fuel prices prompted carriers to prune their fleets. Since 2007, 

the U.S. commercial airline fleet has contracted by 1,005 aircraft. In comparison, the U.S. 

commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in 

aviation. 

The number of passenger jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet increased by 41 aircraft in 2013 

and is projected to rise by 30 aircraft in 2014 as network carriers continue to remove older, 

less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. After 2014, the mainline air carrier passenger fleet 

increases an average of 65 aircraft a year over the remaining years of the forecast period, 

totaling 5,112 aircraft in 2034. The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and 

American Airways) is projected to grow by 41 aircraft annually over the period 2013-2034; the 

wide-body fleet grows by 22 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350’s enter the 

fleet. 

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 11 aircraft in 2014 as increases 

in larger regional jets are more than offset by reductions in 50 seat and smaller regional jets 

and turboprops. After 2014, the regional carrier fleet is projected to decrease by an average of 

3 aircraft (-0.1 percent) a year over the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 2,141 

aircraft in 2034. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is 

1.1 0.8

1.5

-5.4

-0.5 -0.1

-11.7

-0.3

2.4

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

2013 2014 2014-2034

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

Calendar Years 2013-2034

Mainline AC Regionals Cargo
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

55 

projected to grow from 1,642 in 2013 to 1,953 in 2034, an average annual increase of 0.8 

percent. All of the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 to 90-

seat aircraft. During the forecast period, all regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from 

the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of scope clauses. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to 

shrink from 571 units in 2013 to 188 in 2034. Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to 

account for just 8.8 percent of the regional carrier passenger fleet in 2034, down from a 25.8 

percent share in 2013. 

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 8 aircraft over the next two years (from 740 

to 748 aircraft in 2015) after declining by 98 aircraft in 2013 primarily due to retirements of 727-

200s and 747-200s by Federal Express, Evergreen, and Southern Air. For the remainder of 

the forecast period, cargo large jet aircraft at U.S. carriers are forecast to grow at an average 

annual rate of 2.4 percent to 1,182 aircraft in 2034. The narrow-body, cargo jet fleet is 

projected to increase by 5 aircraft a year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 

737’s are converted to cargo service. The wide-body, cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 

16 aircraft yearly. 

General Aviation 

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine and multi-engine piston aircraft, 

turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, and light sport, experimental and 

“other” (which consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles) aircraft. The forecasts are 

carried out for “active aircraft,”13 not total aircraft. The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as 

baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with the 2004 

GA Survey, there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. Coinciding with 

the changed survey methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in 

the number of aircraft and hours flown. The results of the 2012 GA Survey are consistent with 

the results of surveys conducted since 2004, reinforcing our belief that the methodological 

improvements have resulted in superior estimates relative to those of the past. Thus, they are 

used as the basis for our forecast. Because results from the GA Survey are not published until 

the following year, the 2012 statistics are the latest available. As an additional note, the results 

of the 2011 survey were not available to use. Therefore, estimates of 2011 fleet and hours 

were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil aircraft registration 

database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and utilization by type of 

aircraft and age of the fleet. The 2012 GA Survey recorded partial effect of the 2010 Rule for 

Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration. The complete effect of this Rule, which 

requires all aircraft registered in the U.S. to re-register within the three-year period from 2011 

to 2013, will be noted after the 2013 Survey. In the meanwhile, the 2012 Survey showed that 

between 2010 and 2012 the number of active GA aircraft went down by 6.4 percent, from 

223,370 to 209,034. Assuming a similar decline in 2013 as a result of cleaning up from the 

Registry inactive aircraft that previously thought to be active, GA active fleet is estimated to 

have decreased 3.0 percent in 2013 to 202,865. General aviation flight hours for 2013 are 

estimated based on the active fleet and other activity indicators at 24.0 million, with a decline 

 

13 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

56 

of 1.8 percent from the previous year. Activity forecasts begin in 2014 and continue through 

2034. 

After growing rapidly for most of the past decade, and then slowing over the past few years, 

the most recent shipment activity indicates the modest growth continues in the overall general 

aviation aircraft market. While economic uncertainties still affect the business jet market, the 

rate of decline slowed down and a recovery is expected in the near term. The forecast calls for 

robust growth in the long term outlook, driven by higher corporate profits and the growth of 

worldwide GDP, though at rates slightly lower than those predicted last year. Continued 

concerns about safety, security, and flight delays keep business aviation attractive relative to 

commercial air travel. As the industry experts and prior year’s survey results report a 

significant portion of piston aircraft hours are also used for business purposes, we predict 

business usage of general aviation aircraft will expand at a faster pace than that for personal 

and recreational use. Increased demand, especially for agricultural use turboprop aircraft also 

contributes to increased turbine fleet and hours. 

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 

0.5 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 202,865 in 2013 to 

225,700 aircraft by 2034. The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet 

(including rotorcraft) is projected to grow to a total of 49,565 aircraft at an average rate of 2.6 

percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 3.0 percent a 

year, reaching a total of 22,050 by 2034.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

57 

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease at an 

average annual rate of 0.3 percent from the 2013 total of 141,325 to 131,615 by 2034, with 

declines in both single and multi-engine fixed wing aircraft, but with the smaller category of pistonpowered rotorcraft growing at 1.7 percent a year. Single-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft, which 

are much more numerous within this group, are projected to decline at a rate of 0.4 percent, while 

multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projected to decline by 0.5 percent a year. 

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA's aircraft 

registry counts) was created: "light sport" aircraft. At the end of 2012, a total of 2,001 active 

special light-sport aircraft were estimated in this category (Beginning in 2009, experimental 

light-sport aircraft category was reported in FAA statistics as a separate category and until 

2012 reported under light sport aircraft together with the special light-sport aircraft. Starting in 

2012, this experimental light-sport group was re-classified within the experimental aircraft 

category). The forecast assumes about 4.1 percent annual growth of the fleet by 2034, to a 

total of 4,880 light sport aircraft. 

The total number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 1.4 percent yearly 

over the forecast period. The FAA projects faster growth in hours will occur after 2023 with 

increases in the fixed wing turbine aircraft fleet, as well as increasing utilization of both single 

and multi-engine piston aircraft as the aging of this fleet starts to slow down. In the medium 

term, much of the increase in hours flown reflects strong growth in the rotorcraft and turbine jet 

fleets. 

 

Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 3.2 percent yearly 

over the forecast period, compared with a decline of 0.4 percent for piston-powered aircraft. 

Although hours flown by piston rotorcraft are forecast to increase an average of 1.8 percent 

per year during the forecast period, they have a relatively small share (less than 10 percent) in 

this segment of hours flown by general aviation aircraft; and thus have a small impact on the 

overall trend. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours flown 

increasing at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent over the forecast period. The large 

increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with 

a measured recovery in utilization rates from recession induced record lows. Turboprop hours 

are also expected to continue their increase, as also indicated by the 2012 GA Survey, which 

were significantly higher than previously estimated. . 

Rotorcraft hours, which were less impacted by the economic downturn when compared to 

other categories and rebounded earlier, are projected to grow by 2.8 percent yearly, with 

turbine rotorcraft growing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent. In our previous forecast, 

we had expected a decline in utilization rates of turbine rotorcraft with the assumption that 

recently improved affordability at the lower end of the turbine market after the introduction of a 

new light model would cause replacement of some pistons, but as they would function in their 

previous piston uses, utilization rates of some new turbines would be closer to those of the 

pistons. However, sales reports show that most of the replacements were not for pistons, 

which suggest that the new purchases were possibly to replace other turbine helicopter at the 

lower end of the market, or the newly introduced light turbine model was a product fulfilling a 

previously unmet need at the light end of the market. Overall, the market growth was robust in 

both segments of the industry. Therefore, we have changed our assumption of declining 

utilization for the turbine rotorcraft. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

58 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category, which now includes only the special light sport 

(experimental light-sport aircraft is now considered as part of the experimental aircraft 

category), is expected to see an increase in hours flown of 5.1 percent a year, primarily driven 

by growth in the fleet. 

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 

484,425 in 2034, an increase of over 35,000 (up 0.4 percent yearly) over the forecast period. 

Between 2011 and 2013, there was a decline of 12,659 in the number of commercial pilots, 

accompanied by an increase of 7,313 in the number of air transport pilots (ATPs). A substantial 

part of the decline in commercial pilots is thought to be a result of these pilots obtaining the higher 

level ATP certificates as required by the Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration 

Extension Act of 2010. This Act mandated that all part 121 (scheduled airline) flight crew 

members would hold an ATP certificate by August 2, 2013. FAA estimated there were about 

13,000 airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate, most of which were serving at Second in 

Command positions at the regional airlines. Since airline pilots could no longer operate with only a 

commercial pilot certificate after August 2013 (excluding a limited number of special cases as 

specified by 2013 FAA Final Rule for Pilot Certification and Qualification Requirements for Air 

Carrier Operations), we have reduced our commercial pilot forecast compared to the previous year 

and increased our ATP forecast. Taking this change into consideration, commercial pilots are 

projected to increase from 108,206 in 2013 to 122,000 in 2034, an average annual increase of 

0.6 percent. The number of student pilots is forecast to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.2 

percent over the forecast period, declining from 120,285 in 2013 to 116,050 in 2034. In addition, 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

59 

the FAA is projecting that by the end of the forecast period a total of 15,200 sport pilots will be 

certified. As of December 31, 2013, the number of sport pilot certificates issued was 4,824 

reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot certificate that was only created in 

2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at an average yearly rate of 0.1 

percent over the forecast period to a total of 182,450 in 2034 from 180,214 in 2013. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

60 

FAA Operations Forecasts 

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 516 FAA (264) and contract towers (252) totaled 49.9 million operations in 2013, 

down 1.3 percent from 2012. Activity is projected to rise 0.8 percent in 2014, with increases in 

both commercial and non-commercial activity. Growth in total activity at FAA and contract 

towers accelerates slightly in 2015 (1.1 percent) and for the balance of the forecast, activity 

grows at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year, reaching 61.9 million operations in 2034. 

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity 

(up 1.8 percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to increase (1.4) percent in 2014 as 

carriers keep capacity in check. Beyond 2014, air carrier activity is projected to increase an 

average of 2.7 percent per year over the forecast period. The increase in air carrier activity is 

driven by combination of mainline carriers increasing capacity in response to growing demand 

as well as an increase in the operations of 70-90 seat jets which are counted in the air carrier 

category. Commuter/air taxi operations are forecast to fall 1.5 percent in 2014 and decrease 

0.1 percent a year for the balance of the forecast period as regional jets less than 50 seats exit 

the industry. 

General aviation activity decreased 1.2 percent in 2013 as itinerant activity fell 2.8 percent. 

Overall general aviation activity is projected to increase 1.4 percent in 2014 reflecting the 

impact of an improving economy on flight hours and operations. For the entire forecast period, 

general aviation activity at towered airports is projected to increase an average of 0.5 percent 

a year, to 28.7 million operations in 2034. General aviation activity at combined FAA/contract 

towers grows in line with the modest increase forecast for general aviation hours already cited. 

Most operations at the smaller towers are in piston aircraft, while those at the largest airports tend 

to be turbine operations. 

Military activity fell 1.0 percent in 2013 and is assumed to remain at 2013 levels (2.55 million) 

throughout the balance of the forecast period. 

The forecasted growth in operations is not uniform across all facility categories. Over the 

forecast period, total operations at large hub airports (those airports that enplane 1% or more 

of total US enplanements) are projected to increase from 12.3 million in 2013 to 17.8 million in 

2034, an average annual rate of 1.7 percent a year. Operations at these facilities are 

overwhelmingly commercial in nature (95.3 percent in 2013) and their growth will mirror the 

growth in total commercial operations. Total operations at medium hub airports (those airports 

that enplane 0.25 to 0.99 percent of total US enplanements) are projected to increase a bit 

slower than the large hubs, averaging 1.5 percent a year over the forecast period, to total 7.1 

million in 2034. In the largest category, small and non-hub airports, where 82 percent of the 

operations are non-commercial in nature, total operations are projected to increase from 32.4 

million in 2013 to 37.1 million in 2034, an average annual rate of 0.6 percent a year. 

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

61 

Operations14 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 2.1 percent in 2013, 

the ninth year in a row. They are projected to remain steady in 2014 as declines in noncommercial activity offset a slight rise in commercial activity. After 2014, TRACON operations 

are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent for the balance of the 

forecast, reflecting the increasingly commercial nature of TRACON operations. For the entire 

forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.2 percent per year, totaling 47.9 

million in 2034. 

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to 

increase at 1.7 percent per year driven by growth in air carrier activity. General aviation 

operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 0.6 percent a year, reflecting the slow 

growth in the general aviation fleet and hours. Military activity is expected to remain at its 2013 

level (2.2 million) of activity throughout the forecast period. 

En-route Centers 

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en-route traffic control centers decreased 2.3 

percent to 40.0 million in 2013, as declines in general aviation and military activity offset a 

slight increase in commercial aviation activity. In 2014 a modest increase in airline activity 

offsets a fall in general aviation activity, resulting in en-route center activity increasing by 0.6 

 

14 TRACON operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals 

and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and VFR overflights. 

-2.1

0.0

1.3

-1.4

0.1

1.7

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2013 2014 2014-2034

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Tracon Operations

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

62 

percent. After 2014, through the balance of the forecast period, en-route activity increases 1.7 

percent annually, reaching 56.4 million aircraft handled in 2034. Between 2013 and 2034 

commercial activity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent, reflecting 

increases in the commercial fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general 

aviation activity is projected to grow 0.7 percent per year, reflecting growth in business 

aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2013 activity level throughout the forecast 

period. 

 

Activity at FAA en-route centers is growing faster than at towered airports because more of the 

activity at en-route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly 

turbine) general aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at towered airports, which is 

growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers. 

-2.3

0.6

1.7

-2.2

0.9

2.0

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2014-2034

Annual Percent Change 

Fiscal Year

IFR Aircraft Handled

at FAA En-Route Centers 

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

63 

 UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) continue to be the most dynamic growth sector within the 

aviation industry. Once enabled, commercial UAS will have the potential to be a significant 

component of the national airspace system. 

Integration of Civil UAS in the National Airspace System-Roadmap 

Unlike the manned aircraft industry, the UAS community does not have a set of standardized 

design specifications for basic UAS design that ensures safe and reliable operation in typical 

civilian service applications. Ultimately, the pace of integration will be determined by the ability 

of industry, the user community, and the FAA to overcome technical, regulatory, and 

operational challenges. 

The purpose of the Integration of Civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace 

System Roadmap is to outline, within a broad timeline, the tasks and considerations needed to 

enable UAS integration into the NAS for the planning purposes of the broader UAS community. 

The Roadmap also aligns proposed Agency actions with the Congressional mandate in the 

2012 FAA Reauthorization. 

The five-year Roadmap will be updated annually and is intended to guide aviation stakeholders 

in understanding operational goals and aviation safety and air traffic challenges when 

considering future investments. 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Comprehensive Plan 

The UAS Comprehensive Plan details work that has been accomplished, along with future 

efforts needed to achieve safe integration of UAS into the National Airspace System (NAS). 

The perspectives and information available from these individual activities create a framework 

and reveal an evolving capability for the integration of UAS into the NAS. 

The UAS Comprehensive Plan sets the overarching, interagency goals, objectives, and 

approach to integrating UAS into the NAS. Each partner agency will work to achieve these 

national goals and may develop agency-specific plans that are aligned to the national goals 

and objectives. 

Unmanned Aircraft System Test Site Program 

On February 14, 2012, Congress mandated the FAA to develop a test site program. These 

test sites will enable the development of a body of data and operational experiences to safely 

operate and integrate these aircraft into the NAS. 

The overall purpose of this test site program is to develop a body of data along with 

operational expertise to enable the safe operation of these aircraft in the NAS. FAA received 

25 applications from 24 states. The following map summarizes the locations of the six test 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

64 

sites that were awarded on December 30, 2013. The first test site should be operational by 

July 2014 and the test sites will continue to operate until at least February 2017. 

UAS Spending Forecast 

Teal Group's 2013 World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems annual sector study forecasts 

U.S. and international Unmanned Aircraft markets. Teal Group creates a market profile along 

with a forecast for military and civil markets for both the U.S. and outside the U.S. As 

summarized in the chart below, Teal Group forecasts significant spending growth. Total 

procurement and R&D is expected to increase from $5.2 billion to $11.6 billion annually over 

the next decade. Teal Group’s ten year forecast estimates total UAS spending worldwide at 

$89.5 Billion. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

65 

UAS Small Commercial Forecast 

Once the regulatory structure, operation requirements, and industry standards have been 

established, the commercial UAS markets will develop. Relatively inexpensive UAS systems 

under 55 pounds are economically viable for a commercial standpoint, and we expect that 

market demand for UAS will occur within the constraints of the regulatory and airspace 

requirements. 

Once able to legally operate, the FAA estimates roughly 7,500 commercial small UAS will be 

operating at the end of five years. This forecast is highly uncertain and is dependent on the 

regulatory structure finally adopted, and the technology and the cost structure of the industry 

as it evolves. The safe and efficient integration of UAS into the airspace has the potential for 

broad benefits for virtually all Americans. 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

$ Billions

TEAL UAS Spending Forecast

Total R&D and Procurement
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

66 

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION 

Since 1989, the Department of Transportation/Federal Aviation Administration has licensed 

over 220 U.S. commercial space launches. The FAA has also granted over 30 experimental 

permit launches since 2006. Activity in the U.S. commercial sector is expected to increase for 

both orbital and suborbital launches. 

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates U.S. 

commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites 

authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 509 

(formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also direct the 

Department of Transportation to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S. commercial launches. 

AST’s mission is to license and regulate commercial launch and reentry operations and nonfederal launch sites to protect public health and safety, the safety of property, and the national 

security and foreign policy interests of the United States. 

Overview

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The 

most frequently used orbital vehicles are: 

 Falcon 9, an intermediate-class launch vehicle built, operated, and marketed by Space 

Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX); 

 Antares, Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur vehicles built, operated, and marketed by 

Orbital Sciences Corporation (Orbital); 

 Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye for the 

Russian-owned Sea Launch venture, launched from a floating launch platform based at 

Long Beach, CA; and 

 Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture 

between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Lockheed Martin Commercial 

Launch Services (LMCLS). 

Companies such as Armadillo Aerospace have also carried out suborbital licensed launches. 

In addition to launch licenses, experimental permits were first granted by the FAA in 2006. 

Permits are used for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights. Companies that 

have been active in permit launches include Blue Origin, Masten Space Systems, SpaceX, and 

Scaled Composites. 

The FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation does not license or grant permits for 

amateur-class rockets which are unmanned rockets that have less than 200,000 poundseconds of total impulse and cannot reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers above the 

Earth’s surface. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

67 

The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out by U.S. persons inside or outside the 

United States. The FAA does not license launches or reentries the U.S. Government carries 

out for the Government (such as those operated for and by NASA or the Department of 

Defense). 

Eight commercial spaceports are currently licensed by the FAA. These are located in six 

states: Alaska, California (part of Vandenberg Air Force Base and Mojave Air and Space Port), 

Florida (Cape Canaveral and Cecil Field Spaceport), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia. 

Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under development 

including locations in Hawaii, Colorado, and Texas. 

Review of 2013

There were seven orbital FAA-licensed launches in 2013, an increase from five in 2012. 

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 vehicle made three launches including their first mission to 

geosynchronous orbit. There are nearly 50 future launches on the SpaceX manifest. Orbital 

Sciences completed the first two launches of the new Antares vehicle and also launched one 

Minotaur 1 vehicle. Sea Launch (a multinational consortium) had one launch of the Zenit 3SL 

launch vehicle that resulted in a launch failure. SpaceX also carried out the only licensed 

reentry mission when the Dragon capsule returned from orbit for an ocean landing after 

docking at the International Space Station. 

In addition, there were 7 permit suborbital flights during 2013. Five were carried out by 

SpaceX in Texas with their Grasshopper vehicle to test vertical landings of a reusable first 

stage for the Falcon orbital launch vehicle. Two permit suborbital flights were done by Scaled 

Composites with SpaceShipTwo including the first powered rocket engine flight. Other 

companies are preparing for permit flights in 2014. 

Successful permit flights or increases in private financing in 2014 could lead some suborbital 

companies to pursue licensed flights and increase the 2014 forecast. 

2012 2013 2014 Forecast 

Licensed Launches 5 7 8-14 

Permitted Launches 2 7 8-25 

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches

Worldwide there were 23 orbital commercial launches in 2013, compared to 20 in 2012. 

Russia led competitors with 12 orbital commercial launches in 2013, followed by six by the 

U.S. (U.S.-manufactured vehicles), four by Europe and one by Sea Launch. Overall there 

were 81 civil, commercial and military worldwide launches in 2013 compared to 78 in 2012. 

For more details, see the annual Compendium and Year in Review reports available online at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/#accst 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

68 

Global Orbital Launch Forecast 

In May 2013, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee 

(COMSTAC) published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2013 

Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts. The report calculates satellite demand and then 

applies models to estimate international commercial launch demand. Multiple satellites can fly 

on one launch vehicle. The 2013 forecast estimated an average global demand of about 18 

commercial launches per year to geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and a global demand of about 

13 launches per year to non-geosynchronous orbits (NGSO). The forecast covers the years 

2013-2022. The 2013 forecast is up slightly from the 2012 forecast for both GSO and NGSO 

destinations. 

Combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts 

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 

2,500 to over 6,000 kilograms. Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of 

markets and payload sizes, including resupply of the International Space Station, commercial 

remote sensing; science and technology demonstration; and replenishment and replacement 

of low Earth orbit communications satellite systems reaching the end of their lifespan. The 

forecast shows an increasing trend in demand for medium-to-heavy sized launch vehicles. 

Despite increased interest in building very small satellites (including satellites known as 

“cubesats”), the demand for small launch vehicles is only an average of 0.3 launches per year. 

Many small satellites find rides aboard medium-to-heavy lift launch vehicles as secondary 

payloads. 

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but 

instead represents the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. 

The complete forecast report is available at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

69 

Suborbital Reusable Vehicles Forecast 

The most recent global forecast for suborbital reusable vehicles (SRVs) was completed in July 

2012. A report prepared by the Tauri Group for the FAA and Space Florida covered a 10-year 

period that estimated demand once new suborbital vehicles begin flying. The goal of the study 

was to provide information for government and industry decision makers on the emerging SRV 

market by analyzing trends and areas of uncertainty in eight distinct markets SRVs could 

address. The eight markets include: Commercial Human Spaceflight, Basic and Applied 

Research, Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration, Media and Public Relations, 

Education, Satellite Deployment, Remote Sensing, and Point-to-Point Transportation. The 

forecast includes three demand scenarios: baseline, growth, and constrained. Instead of 

flights, the forecast estimates seat demand. The demand is either for one seat for a single 

occupant or a cargo equivalent of 3.3 lockers (based on the size of mid-deck lockers used 

aboard the Space Shuttle). 

Total projected demand for SRVs, across all eight markets, is estimate to begin at around 373 

seat/cargo equivalents in Year 1 and increasing to 533 seat/cargo equivalents in the tenth year 

of the baseline case. Year 1 represents the first year of regular SRV operations. Demand 

under the growth scenario, which reflects increases due to factors such as marketing, research 

successes, and flight operations, grows from about 1,100 to more than 1,500 seat/cargo 

equivalents over ten years. The constrained scenario, which reflects significantly reduced 

consumer spending and government budgets, shows demand from about 213 to 255 

seat/cargo equivalents per year. 

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total 

Baseline 

Scenario 373 390 405 421 438 451 489 501 517 533 4,518 

Growth 

Scenario 1,096 1,127 1,169 1,223 1,260 1,299 1,394 1,445 1,529 1,592 13,134 

Constrained 

Scenario 213 226 232 229 239 243 241 247 252 255 2,378 

Total projected demand for suborbital reusable vehicles by seat/cargo equivalents 

Demand for SRVs is dominated by Commercial Human Spaceflight. The analysis indicates 

that about 8,000 high net worth individuals from across the globe are sufficiently interested and 

have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a suborbital flight. The second 

largest area of demand is Basic and Applied Research, funded primarily by government 

agencies, and also by research for not-for-profits, universities, and commercial firms. 

Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration, Education, Satellite Deployment, and Media 

and PR generate the remaining demand. The Remote Sensing and Point-to-Point 

Transportation markets are not forecasted to drive launches at this time. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

70 

10-year Suborbital Reusable Vehicle demand forecast 

For more details, see the Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market 

Demand report available online at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/ 

Some companies have announced plans to begin operational suborbital flights carrying people 

in 2014. 

$0 

$50 

$100 

$150 

$200 

 - 

 200 

 400 

 600 

 800 

 1,000 

 1,200 

 1,400 

 1,600 

 1,800 

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 

Approximate Annual Flight Revenue ($M) 

Seat/Cargo Equivalents 

Growth: Multiple flights per day, $1.6B over 10 years

Baseline: Daily flights, nearly $600M over 10 years

Constrained: Multiple flights per week, $300M over 10 years 

Increased demand from marketing, research 

successes, and flight operations

Today’s consumer demand and research budgets 

If there is a significant drop from today’s 

demand 

Game changing unknowns: price reductions, research discoveries, 

commercial applications, major sponsorships, others 

Additional potential demand 

(not estimated) 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

71 

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts 

and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. 

This year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the 

strength of the economic recovery and any impact resulting from the U.S. government fiscal 

situation. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years (like the attempted bombing of a 

Northwest airliner on Christmas Day 2009, the discovery of multiple devices on cargo flights 

out of Europe in October 2010) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to 

aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant 

impact on the demand for aviation services that would be greater than its impact on overall 

economic activity. 

Although oil prices remained high in 2013, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the level 

of oil prices once the economic recovery is on firmer ground. The FAA’s baseline forecast 

(derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus released during 

the fourth quarter of 2013) calls for decreases in oil prices until 2015. These are relatively 

modest, with the price of oil approaching $92/barrel by 2015 and then gradually increasing 

thereafter, approaching $139/barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2034. Some 

forecasters are calling for a much sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy 

Information Administration (EIA) in its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook projects oil prices to 

remain between $90 and $100/barrel through 2018 and then rising steadily over the next 16 

years, approaching $185 per barrel in 2034. While lower oil prices give consumers an impetus 

for additional spending, including air travel, and enhance industry profitability, higher oil prices 

could lead to further shifts in consumer expenditures away from aviation, dampening a 

recovery in air transport demand. Furthermore, while the industry has demonstrated its ability 

to generate sustained profits at $100/bbl oil, a $20/bbl increase in the price of oil would 

eliminate the industry’s $9.5 billion net profit in FY 2013. Over the long run higher oil prices 

will put increasing pressure on airline costs, delay balance sheet improvements and 

discourage expansion plans or orders for new aircraft as carriers focus on maintaining and 

increasing cash balances. 

The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate, over the next few 

years, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength and sustainability of the 

expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that growth in the emerging market economies will 

be significantly higher than in the other large economies, in particular the U.S., Japan and the 

European Union. While economic growth appears to be picking up in the U.S., there are 

concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas 

continue to be constrained by structural economic problems and institutional constraints. In 

addition, many countries in the European Union are still grappling with the impacts of fiscal 

austerity policies, aimed at reducing government spending and debt, implemented during the 

past three years which have prolonged the regional downturn. Furthermore the steps that 

were taken to resuscitate the global economy may prove to be excessive, since the resulting 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

72 

surge in liquidity growth may cause asset bubbles and exacerbate existing global imbalances. 

The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States 

and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the 

growth in global passenger demand. 

With the merger of American Airlines and US Airways completed, the outlook for further 

consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 

2013 data, the Big 3 (American, Delta, and United) plus Southwest accounted for almost 77% 

of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. Of the network carriers, only Alaska remains 

independent, although it does have code share agreements with both American and Delta. In 

the low cost carrier sector, the merger between Southwest and AirTran is progressing at a 

steady pace as the carriers are on track to have full integration of the fleet and a single 

ticketing system by the end of 2014. Aside from Southwest and AirTran, there appears to be 

little scope for further consolidation as there are significant obstacles. In particular the financial 

situation of many low cost carriers limits the possibilities of additional merger activity. For 

many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of financial risk 

associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. However, U.S. airlines are 

continuing to explore other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the 

U.S. are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity 

from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for airline operators across 

borders, it may create an anti-competitive environment in the marketplace. These market 

consolidating vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased 

regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the 

evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) 

into the fleet of regional carriers. However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to 

those of the larger network carriers. As demand continues to slowly recover, financial 

pressures on regional operators have increased. Furthermore, as consolidation has occurred 

among the network carriers, many regional carriers have found themselves either saddled with 

excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of feed traffic. The network carriers 

continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their networks, without providing 

opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along 

in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet fleet and United and the new 

American Airways have indicated that they will also be moving ahead with plans to bring down 

the number of 50 seat regional jets flown by their regional partners. While these actions may 

provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of 

consolidation so far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantially. 

 

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation have 

seen a partial recovery during the past four years. The pace of the recovery in business and 

corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and 

corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the 

forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate 

aviation, potential environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security 

measures placed on business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. On the other 

hand, while corporate profits are currently high, perceived economic and political uncertainties 

are causing companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. Translation of this 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

73 

pent-up demand into sales of business jets in the near future can create an upward impact on 

the forecast. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition 

from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates 

show that a record number of new business jets are delivered overseas and, with the potential 

easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet 

manufacturers looks all the more promising. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the 

subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look 

increasingly appealing. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the 

next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is changing for this same period. The expected increases 

in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will increase the impact on the national 

airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. This change in the mix of aircraft 

will impact workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation services projected over 

the forecast period. 

Although overall activity at FAA and contract towers fell in 2013, activity at a number of the 

largest airports increased in 2013 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. 

airports. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a 

critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and 

operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to 

handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in 

even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations 

would not be achieved. 

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the 

ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport 

expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and 

water quality concerns. There is also an ongoing effort to address the climate impacts of 

aviation. Aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, but this 

percentage is expected to increase with the growth in operations unless mitigated with new 

technology, renewable fuels, operational improvements and market based measures. While 

certain measures to address climate impacts can result in reduced costs, such as increased 

fuel efficiency, other measures, such as market instruments could pose additional constraints 

on growth. Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security 

issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of 

progress in improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in 

more restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service which in turn may 

depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and 

renewable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast, and 

enable sustainable growth. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

74 

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST 

SCENARIOS 

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. As 

volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning 

purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA 

has begun to provide alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity. 

To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international 

regions from IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released in the fourth quarter 2013) were 

used to generate enplanements, mainline real yield and nominal yield. To develop the 

alternative scenarios, assumptions from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in 

IHS Global Insight’s 10 year alternatives from their January 2014 U.S. forecast were used. 

Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the baseline scenario inputs to create a “high” 

and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. 

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by country specific Gross 

Domestic Product (GDP) provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP 

for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and pessimistic 

forecasts of GDP described above in order to create a high and low case. Since only the ten 

year alternative GDP forecasts by Global Insight were available at the time of this analysis, both 

the domestic and international optimistic and pessimistic scenarios extend to 2023 only.15

Scenario Assumptions 

The FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn 

and suffers no major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, 

or financial meltdowns. The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic 

forecast. The optimistic forecast sees improved business confidence leading to renewed vigor 

in the labor market and sustained improvements in the housing sector leading to a stronger 

economy. A credible plan to tackle sovereign-debt issues in Europe is enacted, and policy 

decisions in both Europe and China boost the global economic outlook. In this scenario GDP 

and real disposable income (DI) growth are about 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, 

faster per year than the baseline forecast and unemployment averaging 1.5 points lower on an 

annual basis than the baseline (Real DI and unemployment are used as an input variables to 

the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements). Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast 

uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In the pessimistic forecast, the combination of 

continued fiscal tightening and a weak global outlook combine to stall U.S. economic growth. In 

 

15 IHS Global Insight, Short-term macro forecast – baseline and alternatives, released January 4, 2014.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

75 

the U.S. debt-ceiling induced spending cuts take a chunk out of economic growth. The 

sovereign-debt crisis in Europe intensifies pushing Europe back into recession which reduces 

the demand for U.S. exports. As the private sector cuts back, unemployment rises and housing 

activity begins to slow. The U.S. economy barely avoids recession in 2014 and has sub-par 

growth in 2015. In this scenario, GDP and real DI grow 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points, 

respectively, slower per year than in the baseline, and unemployment, on average, is 1.4 points 

higher on an annual basis than in the baseline. 

1.7

1.4

2.1

1.6

2.3

2.8

1.7

3.9

3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

76 

 

1.6

1.8

2.4

1.5

2.3

2.8

1.5

2.8

3.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Disposable Personal Income

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

77 

Oil prices affect the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact on the 

profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices fall over the next few years. In 

the baseline forecast, technological improvements act as a counterbalance to partially offset 

rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners acquisition cost (RAC) of oil increases 12.4 percent 

between 2013 and 2023, rising from $101 to $113 per barrel. In the optimistic case, the price of 

oil (RAC) decreases at a faster pace through 2017 than in the baseline forecast and then rises 

more slowly thereafter, resulting in a price of $98 per barrel by 2023. The high case is 

characterized by availability of energy, further gains in technology, and a stronger dollar which 

help to temper prices compared to the baseline. In the low case forecast, a weaker dollar and 

lower productivity gains create upward pressure in oil prices after 2015. In this scenario, the 

RAC rises by 35 percent over its 2015 low to $122 by 2023. 

100.7 100.7

122.4

100.8

92.6

113.3

100.8

86.3

98.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2016 2023

$ Per Barrel

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

78 

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the 

forecast period. In the optimistic case the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate 

of 1.7 percent per year (compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy 

prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimistic case 

forecast the opposite holds with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly 

compared to the baseline. As a result, in the pessimistic case, the CPI grows an average of 2.5 

percent annually over the forecast period. 

1.6

0.9

2.5

1.6

1.5

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

79 

Alternative Forecasts 

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 

2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2014-2023 (with domestic and international 

passengers up 2.3 and 4.1 percent, respectively). In the optimistic case, passengers grow at a 

quicker pace, averaging 3.0 percent per year (up 2.7 percent domestically and 4.6 percent 

internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower 

inflation, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to business and 

leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2023, passengers in the optimistic case 

are 6.5 percent above the baseline. The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of slow 

growth in 2014 and 2015 along with weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent 

unemployment, higher energy prices, and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow an 

average of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up 1.6 percent and international up 3.0 percent). In 

the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2023 are 6.6 percent below the baseline case, 

totaling 868 million, 62 million fewer than in the baseline. 

0.4

0.6

1.7

0.4

0.8

2.5

0.4

2.9 3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

80 

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent a year 

over the forecast horizon, with domestic RPMs increasing 2.4 percent annually and 

international RPMs growing 4.3 percent annually. In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth 

averaging 3.4 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.9 and 4.6 percent, 

respectively). In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher 

energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.3 percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.7 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.4 percent annually. 

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.0 percent annually 

over the forecast horizon (with growth averaging 2.3 percent annually in domestic markets and 

4.3 percent a year in international markets). In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster 

clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 3.4 percent annually (up 2.8 percent domestically 

and up 4.6 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment and by the end of the forecast horizon, system capacity in the optimistic 

case is 5.9 percent above the baseline case. In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is 

lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 percent annually 

1.4 1.4

2.3

1.4 1.4

3.0

1.4

3.7

3.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

81 

(domestic growth of 1.6 percent annually and international up 3.4 percent annually). Total 

system capacity in the pessimistic case in 2023 is 7.0 percent below the baseline and 12.2 

percent below the optimistic case. 

Load Factor

System load factors over the 10-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. In the base case and in the optimistic scenario, system load factor rises from 83.2 

percent in 2013 to 83.7 percent in 2023. In the pessimistic scenario, system load factor 

increases from 83.2 percent in 2013 to 84.0 percent in 2023. In all three scenarios it is 

assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity 

(seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers). The domestic load factor increases over 

the forecast horizon from 83.5 percent to 84.4 percent in all three scenarios. The international 

load factor forecast is slightly different in the three scenarios, reflecting in part the relative 

growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions 

under each scenario. In the base case, international load factor is relatively steady, going from 

82.6 percent in 2013 to 82.5 percent in 2023. In the optimistic scenario, international load 

factor is lower than in the other scenarios, falling to 82.3 percent by 2023, reflecting the faster 

growth in the relatively lower load factor Latin America market. In the pessimistic scenario, 

there is more convergence of future growth rates than in either the base case or the optimistic 

scenario, resulting in international load factor climbing to 83.3 percent by 2023. 

0.8

1.2

2.2

0.8

1.5

3.0

0.8

3.9

3.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2013 2014 2014-23

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

82 

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.4 percent annually, going from 14.27 

cents in 2013 to 16.58 cents in 2023. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises 

from 14.08 cents in 2013 to 16.50 cents in 2023, while international yield rises from 14.69 cents 

in 2013 to 16.73 cents in 2023. System yield rises more slowly in the optimistic case, up 1.2 

percent annually to be 16.34 cents at the end of the forecast period. Domestic yield increases 

to 16.27 cents while international yield increases to 16.48 cents. The slower growth in yield in 

the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel 

prices, and lower inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the 

domestic market, fares are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased levels of 

competition between low cost and legacy carriers. In the international market, increased 

competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on fares. In the pessimistic 

case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 1.6 percent 

annually, reaching 16.87 cents by 2023 (16.54 cents domestically and 17.50 cents 

internationally). This scenario reflects higher general inflation and higher energy prices than in 

the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, 

and capital. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

83 

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23

Economic

AssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product Pessimistic 15,661 15,876 16,095 17,657 19,187 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1%(BIL 09$) Baseline 15,639 16,002 16,516 18,605 20,442 2.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% Optimistic 15,661 16,267 16,981 19,506 21,677 3.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2%Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 100.7 95.4 90.6 114.1 122.4 -5.3% -5.0% 3.6% 2.8%Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 100.8 98.1 92.5 102.6 113.3 -2.6% -5.7% 0.9% 1.6% Optimistic 100.8 105.9 98.4 90.5 98.4 5.1% -7.1% -3.1% -0.8%Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.32 2.34 2.38 2.64 2.93 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.5%All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.32 2.36 2.39 2.58 2.79 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9%

Optimistic 2.32 2.37 2.42 2.57 2.76 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0(%) Baseline 7.6 7.3 6.7 5.3 5.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2

Optimistic 7.6 6.2 4.8 3.7 4.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.2

Sources: Baseline -IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, September 2013; Optimistic and Pessimistic - IHS Global Insight, U.S. Economic Outlook, January 2014

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2013-2023
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

84 

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23

System 

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,002.8 1,014.6 1,034.2 1,122.8 1,230.7 1.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2%(BIL) Baseline 1,002.8 1,017.8 1,053.4 1,199.6 1,323.7 1.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0%

Optimistic 1,002.8 1,041.5 1,098.3 1,275.8 1,402.2 3.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.4%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 834.1 845.6 863.3 941.1 1,033.9 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%(BIL) Baseline 834.1 846.1 877.0 1,002.6 1,108.3 1.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0%

Optimistic 834.1 864.7 913.3 1,065.3 1,173.1 3.7% 5.6% 4.3% 3.4%

Enplanements Pessimistic 739.3 743.7 756.3 806.8 868.1 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%(MIL) Baseline 739.3 745.5 771.1 863.8 929.6 0.8% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5%

Optimistic 739.3 761.1 806.2 925.2 989.9 2.9% 5.9% 4.0% 3.0%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,016.3 7,015.5 7,113.7 7,570.8 8,148.3 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%(MIL) Baseline 7,016.3 7,049.3 7,265.8 8,120.8 8,773.2 0.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5%

Optimistic 7,016.3 7,197.8 7,580.7 8,662.1 9,306.6 2.6% 5.3% 3.8% 2.9%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,168.2 9,068.4 9,147.9 9,533.8 9,976.9 -1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1%(000s) Baseline 9,168.2 9,107.5 9,345.1 10,185.7 10,544.3 -0.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.6%

Optimistic 9,168.2 9,320.0 9,804.3 10,907.3 11,327.4 1.7% 5.2% 3.2% 2.2%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.27 14.56 14.74 15.89 16.87 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6%(cents) Baseline 14.27 14.64 14.81 15.72 16.58 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%

Optimistic 14.27 14.71 14.89 15.53 16.34 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2013-2023
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

85 

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23

Domestic

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 699.6 704.7 712.3 754.6 813.2 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6%(BIL) Baseline 699.6 706.5 727.2 808.7 867.6 1.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3%

Optimistic 699.6 721.3 762.3 868.8 923.2 3.1% 5.7% 3.8% 2.8%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 583.9 587.5 595.2 634.4 686.0 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7%(BIL) Baseline 583.9 589.0 607.6 679.9 731.9 0.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4%

Optimistic 583.9 601.4 636.9 730.4 778.8 3.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.9%

Enplanements Pessimistic 654.3 656.4 666.0 705.0 754.4 0.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%(MIL) Baseline 654.3 658.1 679.8 755.1 804.0 0.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.3%

Optimistic 654.3 671.9 712.7 811.8 856.4 2.7% 6.1% 3.9% 2.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,599.8 5,580.4 5,628.2 5,895.4 6,274.7 -0.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3%(MIL) Baseline 5,599.8 5,594.8 5,745.1 6,313.5 6,685.6 -0.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0%

Optimistic 5,599.8 5,714.0 6,026.1 6,792.6 7,127.7 2.0% 5.5% 3.5% 2.5%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,554.4 8,451.7 8,514.1 8,838.7 9,219.3 -1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%(000s) Baseline 8,554.4 8,479.7 8,692.7 9,426.6 9,795.4 -0.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6%

Optimistic 8,554.4 8,681.9 9,137.7 10,115.3 10,418.8 1.5% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.08 14.47 14.67 15.78 16.54 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%(cents) Baseline 14.08 14.50 14.69 15.64 16.50 3.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4%

Optimistic 14.08 14.61 14.77 15.44 16.27 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2013-2023
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

86 

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2013E 2014 2015 2019 2023 2013-14 2014-15 2014-19 2014-23

International

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 303.1 309.9 321.9 368.2 417.5 2.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%

(BIL) Baseline 303.1 311.3 326.2 390.9 456.1 2.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.3%

Optimistic 303.1 320.1 336.0 406.9 479.0 5.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.6%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 250.3 258.1 268.1 306.8 347.9 3.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%

(BIL) Baseline 250.3 257.2 269.4 322.7 376.4 2.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3%

Optimistic 250.3 263.3 276.4 334.9 394.3 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 85.1 87.3 90.3 101.8 113.7 2.6% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%

(MIL) Baseline 85.1 87.5 91.4 108.6 125.6 2.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

Optimistic 85.1 89.2 93.5 113.5 133.5 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,416.5 1,435.1 1,485.5 1,675.4 1,873.8 1.3% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%(MIL) Baseline 1,416.5 1,454.5 1,520.7 1,807.4 2,087.6 2.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1%

Optimistic 1,416.5 1,483.9 1,554.6 1,869.5 2,178.9 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 613.7 616.7 633.8 695.0 757.5 0.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3%

(000s) Baseline 613.7 627.8 652.3 759.1 857.6 2.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5%

Optimistic 613.7 638.1 666.6 792.0 908.7 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.69 14.78 14.90 16.12 17.50 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9%

(cents) Baseline 14.69 14.94 15.08 15.88 16.73 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%

Optimistic 14.69 14.94 15.15 15.72 16.48 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2013-2023
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

87 

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve 

not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on 

industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet 

reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the 

volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would 

contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build 

forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on 

the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results. 

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast 

metrics during the FY 2005-2013 forecast period. Although this period has experienced 

industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For 

this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to 

inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast 

methodology. 

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the 

actual results for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the 

relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast 

took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute 

percent error was 8.2 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period 

under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005 through FY 2013 occurred in FY 

2004, FY 2005, FY 2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, FY 2009, FY 2010, FY 2011, and FY 2012 

respectively.16 

 

16 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. 

Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

88 

U.S. AIR CARRIERS 

DOMESTIC SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY 

FORECAST EVALUATION 

 Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2005 - FY 2013) 

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual) 

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual 

 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 

 

ASMs 0.8% 4.4% 8.2% 11.3% 17.3% 

RPMs 1.0% 3.5% 6.6% 8.6% 12.6% 

Passenger Enplanements 0.9% 3.2% 6.5% 8.4% 12.7% 

Mainline Yield 3.3% 5.1% 7.4% 8.6% 10.4% 

IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.4% 6.3% 9.6% 12.6% 18.0% 

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial 

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longerterm trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is 

closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an 

examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic 

shifts in accuracy occur. 

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined 

show declining variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest 

variances were found in the forecasts of ASMs and IFR Aircraft Handled, the variables most 

directly affected by exogenous events. Second, the ASM forecast variance being larger than 

the RPM forecast variance indicates a consistent underestimation of load factors, one of the 

key elements in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. All other things being 

equal, large variances in forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the long-term 

forecasts of aviation activity, as can been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft handled 

forecasts. 

Furthermore, ASMs and aircraft handled are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond 

a relatively short time horizon, as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The 

relatively large variances in these forecasts beyond two years suggest that carriers have been 

permanently removing capacity by reducing flights and by changing the mix of aircraft to satisfy 

demand. In the short term, such capacity reductions can be identified by using advance 

schedule information. However, the FAA’s longer-term forecasts rely on anticipated aircraft 

deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic activity and 

capacity deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer 

term ASM and aircraft handled forecasts, a simpler approach to projecting ASMs, such as 

RPMs divided by load factors, may improve the long run accuracy of the ASM and aircraft 

handled forecasts. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

89 

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The 

following individuals were responsible for individual subject areas: 

Economic Environment Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306 

Commercial Air Carriers 

Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306 

Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302 

Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309 

General Aviation 

 Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 

 Survey Data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 

FAA Workload Measures 

 Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306 

 Data Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division, APO-100 

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641 

 Merideth Tracey (202) 385-4600 

Commercial Space John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, AST-100 

 (202) 267-7989 

Text and Table Preparation Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff 

APO Websites 

Forecasts/Statistical Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics 

 APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov 

Email 

APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

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APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

92 

TABLE 1

ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2013 FISCAL YEAR 2014 FISCAL YEAR 2015

VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real GDP

(Billions of 2009$) 15,539.6 15,583.9 15,681.0 15,753.2 15,840.5 15,942.4 16,051.9 16,174.3 16,309.9 16,447.5 16,582.8 16,721.7Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4%Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average(Dollars) 97.29 101.15 99.84 104.87 102.59 98.93 96.31 94.64 93.45 92.72 91.97 92.02Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 16.9% -5.1% 21.7% -8.4% -13.5% -10.2% -6.8% -4.9% -3.1% -3.2% 0.2%Consumer Price Index(1982-84 equals 100) 231.3 232.1 232.1 233.6 234.3 235.2 236.2 237.0 237.9 238.9 239.9 241.0Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.9%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2013

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

93 

TABLE 2

GROSS DISPOSABLE CONSUMER PRICE REFINERS' ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT PERSONAL INCOME INDEX AVERAGEYEAR (Billions 2009$) (Billions 2009$) (1982-84=100) (Dollars per barrel)Historical

2000 12,477.1 8,803.8 170.74 26.702006 14,528.6 10,491.6 200.58 59.952007 14,807.4 10,789.6 205.31 60.622008 14,939.0 10,958.2 214.41 101.522009 14,426.5 10,954.9 213.78 54.682010 14,678.8 10,991.4 217.42 74.612011 14,977.5 11,286.3 223.10 96.002012 15,396.4 11,448.8 228.53 102.812013E 15,639.4 11,620.5 232.28 100.79Forecast2014 16,002.3 11,890.5 235.68 98.122015 16,515.5 12,298.5 239.42 92.542016 17,042.8 12,691.4 243.88 92.612017 17,564.5 13,129.6 248.55 95.792018 18,084.2 13,553.7 253.26 99.152019 18,605.1 13,928.5 258.03 102.612020 19,091.1 14,271.8 263.02 105.822021 19,540.5 14,573.8 268.23 108.722022 19,984.2 14,883.2 273.39 110.972023 20,442.3 15,214.5 278.52 113.272024 20,935.7 15,589.5 283.92 115.602025 21,436.3 15,971.5 289.45 117.702026 21,943.8 16,350.8 295.13 119.842027 22,462.2 16,730.3 301.18 122.012028 22,986.8 17,139.8 307.10 124.212029 23,535.3 17,545.7 313.21 126.492030 24,096.2 17,954.0 319.49 128.812031 24,662.8 18,349.6 326.08 131.232032 25,241.9 18,754.1 332.90 133.692033 25,848.0 19,171.3 339.95 136.182034 26,469.3 19,588.7 347.44 138.71Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 10.8%2013-14 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% -2.7%2013-23 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.2%2013-34 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2013

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

94 

TABLE 3

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / AFRICA/ 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC 

BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical

2000 1,027.2 16,088.7 2,491.0 9,108.0 40,273.82006 1,195.1 19,009.8 2,981.4 11,716.9 48,347.82007 1,219.1 19,755.0 3,141.9 12,472.6 50,273.92008 1,233.4 20,004.7 3,260.7 12,846.5 50,990.82009 1,199.9 19,265.9 3,199.5 12,998.9 49,927.32010 1,240.4 19,804.6 3,379.6 13,938.9 51,959.32011 1,271.8 20,262.7 3,521.3 14,514.8 53,417.32012 1,293.5 20,408.2 3,624.1 15,128.7 54,686.22013E 1,315.0 20,565.0 3,721.3 15,788.6 55,845.9Forecast2014 1,347.0 20,956.7 3,854.3 16,528.6 57,515.22015 1,383.8 21,454.6 4,012.2 17,351.8 59,520.32016 1,421.1 22,016.6 4,181.0 18,184.9 61,601.52017 1,457.9 22,616.6 4,350.9 19,066.2 63,770.72018 1,495.0 23,196.6 4,528.6 19,947.1 65,920.62019 1,532.5 23,779.9 4,714.2 20,881.4 68,139.82020 1,569.3 24,379.9 4,903.4 21,854.5 70,373.12021 1,606.3 24,995.8 5,103.1 22,877.0 72,658.62022 1,642.7 25,608.6 5,306.3 23,921.9 74,968.32023 1,679.7 26,229.8 5,515.2 24,980.5 77,319.12024 1,717.9 26,860.8 5,733.3 26,067.0 79,751.02025 1,756.8 27,496.2 5,959.3 27,173.9 82,225.32026 1,796.2 28,135.6 6,193.7 28,315.4 84,758.82027 1,836.1 28,788.2 6,438.6 29,498.7 87,364.42028 1,877.3 29,452.3 6,690.0 30,708.6 90,025.32029 1,919.2 30,126.9 6,952.1 31,940.8 92,756.62030 1,962.1 30,814.3 7,222.6 33,191.2 95,542.02031 2,007.0 31,514.5 7,502.6 34,461.3 98,379.02032 2,052.2 32,221.4 7,791.2 35,761.4 101,269.52033 2,097.2 32,940.5 8,091.1 37,107.9 104,249.52034 2,143.7 33,673.2 8,400.3 38,483.8 107,301.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.9% 1.9% 3.1% 4.3% 2.5%2013-14 2.4% 1.9% 3.6% 4.7% 3.0%2013-23 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 3.3%2013-34 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 4.3% 3.2%Source: IHS Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 Sept 2013

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

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TABLE 4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

CALENDAR AMERICA UNITEDYEAR (NAFTA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINAHistorical

2000 13,372.9 9,390.5 2,005.8 4,309.5 1,430.32006 15,532.4 10,458.4 2,385.3 4,649.7 2,567.32007 15,826.1 10,770.3 2,467.1 4,750.4 2,931.92008 15,811.7 10,797.7 2,448.1 4,699.6 3,213.32009 15,340.3 10,324.0 2,321.5 4,439.9 3,509.32010 15,759.6 10,521.8 2,360.0 4,647.4 3,876.12011 16,078.0 10,694.5 2,386.4 4,621.8 4,236.62012 16,522.3 10,632.1 2,390.5 4,712.0 4,564.62013E 16,787.9 10,580.1 2,425.2 4,803.6 4,917.6Forecast2014 17,234.5 10,658.9 2,484.3 4,888.3 5,307.72015 17,808.1 10,791.6 2,546.7 4,951.3 5,745.22016 18,375.8 10,956.4 2,613.1 4,997.9 6,192.82017 18,941.8 11,147.3 2,676.3 5,076.8 6,645.82018 19,502.6 11,328.8 2,738.1 5,132.0 7,106.22019 20,069.8 11,509.7 2,799.7 5,181.3 7,611.62020 20,592.0 11,698.4 2,863.3 5,229.9 8,136.52021 21,093.6 11,894.5 2,927.7 5,278.1 8,691.32022 21,596.6 12,084.3 2,991.2 5,325.9 9,257.52023 22,113.5 12,276.2 3,055.3 5,373.4 9,827.92024 22,666.3 12,471.5 3,119.4 5,420.7 10,405.82025 23,230.9 12,664.7 3,184.6 5,468.3 11,014.12026 23,809.0 12,860.0 3,250.5 5,515.7 11,647.42027 24,395.0 13,056.9 3,318.5 5,562.1 12,311.12028 24,991.5 13,256.3 3,386.8 5,607.5 12,990.52029 25,618.6 13,455.7 3,456.9 5,651.7 13,683.42030 26,261.8 13,656.4 3,529.5 5,694.2 14,387.72031 26,916.3 13,861.3 3,604.0 5,735.3 15,101.22032 27,579.8 14,065.8 3,679.0 5,775.2 15,830.92033 28,266.3 14,269.9 3,754.4 5,813.9 16,592.52034 28,973.6 14,476.0 3,830.2 5,851.0 17,367.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0%2013-14 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 1.8% 7.9%2013-23 2.8% 1.5% 2.3% 1.1% 7.2%2013-34 2.6% 1.5% 2.2% 0.9% 6.2%Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 12 September 2013

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

96 

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical

2000 641.2 56.4 697.6 512.8 181.8 694.62006 668.4 71.6 740.0 582.4 208.5 790.92007 690.1 75.3 765.3 600.5 221.2 821.72008 680.7 78.3 759.1 594.6 233.8 828.52009 630.8 73.6 704.4 548.6 221.3 769.92010 635.2 77.4 712.6 555.8 231.0 786.82011 650.1 81.0 731.1 572.2 242.5 814.62012 653.8 82.9 736.7 577.7 244.6 822.22013E 654.3 85.1 739.3 583.9 250.3 834.1Forecast2014 658.1 87.5 745.5 589.0 257.2 846.12015 679.8 91.4 771.1 607.6 269.4 877.02016 700.0 95.4 795.4 625.9 282.1 908.02017 719.1 99.8 818.9 644.0 295.5 939.52018 738.2 104.1 842.4 662.9 308.9 971.82019 755.1 108.6 863.7 679.9 322.7 1,002.62020 769.6 112.9 882.5 694.9 336.0 1,030.82021 781.3 117.0 898.4 707.4 349.2 1,056.62022 792.3 121.2 913.5 719.3 362.6 1,081.92023 804.0 125.6 929.6 731.9 376.4 1,108.32024 817.9 130.4 948.2 746.6 391.1 1,137.72025 832.3 135.2 967.5 761.9 406.2 1,168.02026 846.9 140.3 987.1 777.3 421.7 1,199.02027 861.1 145.4 1,006.5 792.4 437.7 1,230.12028 876.0 150.8 1,026.7 808.4 454.1 1,262.52029 890.5 156.4 1,046.9 824.0 471.2 1,295.22030 905.0 162.3 1,067.3 839.8 488.9 1,328.72031 919.1 168.3 1,087.3 855.1 507.0 1,362.12032 933.2 174.4 1,107.7 870.6 525.6 1,396.12033 947.5 180.9 1,128.4 886.2 544.8 1,431.12034 961.9 187.6 1,149.5 902.1 564.8 1,466.9Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 1.0% 2.5% 1.4%2013-14 0.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 2.8% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 4.0% 2.3% 2.3% 4.2% 2.9%2013-34 1.9% 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 4.0% 2.7%*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

97 

 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical

2000 726.6 512.8 70.6 239.3 181.8 76.0 965.9 694.6 71.92006 740.2 582.4 78.7 261.3 208.5 79.8 1,001.5 790.9 79.02007 752.5 600.5 79.8 275.9 221.2 80.2 1,028.4 821.7 79.92008 749.6 594.6 79.3 292.7 233.8 79.9 1,042.4 828.5 79.52009 682.5 548.6 80.4 283.3 221.3 78.1 965.8 769.9 79.72010 680.0 555.8 81.7 281.3 231.0 82.1 961.3 786.8 81.82011 693.5 572.2 82.5 300.4 242.5 80.7 993.9 814.6 82.02012 694.4 577.7 83.2 300.5 244.6 81.4 994.9 822.2 82.62013E 699.6 583.9 83.5 303.1 250.3 82.6 1,002.8 834.1 83.2Forecast2014 706.5 589.0 83.4 311.3 257.2 82.6 1,017.8 846.1 83.12015 727.2 607.6 83.6 326.2 269.4 82.6 1,053.4 877.0 83.32016 747.7 625.9 83.7 341.6 282.1 82.6 1,089.3 908.0 83.42017 768.0 644.0 83.9 357.9 295.5 82.6 1,125.9 939.5 83.42018 789.4 662.9 84.0 374.1 308.9 82.6 1,163.6 971.8 83.52019 808.7 679.9 84.1 390.9 322.7 82.5 1,199.6 1,002.6 83.62020 825.6 694.9 84.2 407.0 336.0 82.5 1,232.7 1,030.8 83.62021 839.8 707.4 84.2 423.1 349.2 82.5 1,262.9 1,056.6 83.72022 853.2 719.3 84.3 439.3 362.6 82.5 1,292.5 1,081.9 83.72023 867.6 731.9 84.4 456.1 376.4 82.5 1,323.7 1,108.3 83.72024 884.4 746.6 84.4 473.9 391.1 82.5 1,358.4 1,137.7 83.82025 902.0 761.9 84.5 492.2 406.2 82.5 1,394.2 1,168.0 83.82026 919.8 777.3 84.5 511.1 421.7 82.5 1,430.9 1,199.0 83.82027 937.3 792.4 84.5 530.5 437.7 82.5 1,467.8 1,230.1 83.82028 955.7 808.4 84.6 550.5 454.1 82.5 1,506.2 1,262.5 83.82029 973.8 824.0 84.6 571.3 471.2 82.5 1,545.2 1,295.2 83.82030 992.1 839.8 84.6 592.8 488.9 82.5 1,585.0 1,328.7 83.82031 1,009.8 855.1 84.7 614.9 507.0 82.5 1,624.7 1,362.1 83.82032 1,027.9 870.6 84.7 637.4 525.6 82.5 1,665.3 1,396.1 83.82033 1,046.1 886.2 84.7 660.8 544.8 82.4 1,706.9 1,431.1 83.82034 1,064.5 902.1 84.7 685.1 564.8 82.4 1,749.6 1,466.9 83.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.3% 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.3% 1.4%2013-14 1.0% 0.9% 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.4%2013-23 2.2% 2.3% 4.2% 4.2% 2.8% 2.9%2013-34 2.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7%*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

98 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL

FISCAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONALYEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical

2000 20.9 24.3 11.2 56.4 87.1 36.3 58.4 181.82006 22.5 35.2 13.9 71.6 93.9 53.6 61.1 208.5

2007 24.1 37.6 13.6 75.3 102.2 57.7 61.4 221.22008 26.0 39.1 13.2 78.3 112.7 60.7 60.4 233.82009 24.7 36.8 12.0 73.6 108.9 57.7 54.7 221.32010 24.5 40.0 12.9 77.4 108.6 63.1 59.2 231.02011 25.3 42.2 13.5 81.0 111.7 67.2 63.6 242.52012 24.8 44.1 14.0 82.9 107.9 70.3 66.4 244.62013E 24.9 45.8 14.4 85.1 107.0 74.6 68.6 250.3Forecast

2014 25.6 47.6 14.2 87.5 110.6 78.0 68.6 257.2

2015 26.4 49.9 15.0 91.4 114.6 82.6 72.3 269.42016 27.2 52.5 15.7 95.4 118.8 87.4 75.9 282.12017 28.1 55.1 16.5 99.8 123.2 92.5 79.8 295.52018 29.0 57.9 17.3 104.1 127.6 97.6 83.6 308.9

2019 29.8 60.7 18.1 108.6 132.2 103.0 87.5 322.7

2020 30.7 63.3 18.9 112.9 136.5 108.0 91.4 336.0

2021 31.5 65.8 19.7 117.0 140.9 112.8 95.4 349.2

2022 32.3 68.4 20.5 121.2 145.3 117.8 99.5 362.6

2023 33.1 71.1 21.3 125.6 149.8 123.0 103.6 376.4

2024 34.0 74.1 22.2 130.4 154.6 128.6 107.9 391.1

2025 34.9 77.2 23.1 135.2 159.5 134.4 112.3 406.2

2026 35.8 80.5 24.0 140.3 164.4 140.5 116.8 421.7

2027 36.7 83.8 24.9 145.4 169.5 146.7 121.4 437.7

2028 37.7 87.3 25.8 150.8 174.7 153.2 126.2 454.1

2029 38.6 91.0 26.8 156.4 180.1 160.1 131.0 471.2

2030 39.6 94.8 27.8 162.3 185.7 167.3 136.0 488.9

2031 40.6 98.8 28.8 168.3 191.4 174.6 141.0 507.0

2032 41.7 103.0 29.8 174.4 197.2 182.3 146.1 525.6

2033 42.7 107.3 30.9 180.9 203.2 190.3 151.4 544.8

2034 43.8 111.9 31.9 187.6 209.3 198.6 156.8 564.8

Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 5.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.6% 5.7% 1.3% 2.5%2013-14 3.1% 3.8% -0.9% 2.8% 3.4% 4.5% -0.1% 2.8%2013-23 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2%2013-34 2.7% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.2% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0%* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

99 

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR U.S./CANADAYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTALHistorical

2000 53.0 40.8 26.2 20.5 140.52006 49.8 47.1 26.1 21.0 96.92007 53.3 48.6 26.3 21.5 101.12008 57.1 49.8 25.8 21.7 104.62009 55.0 48.0 24.4 20.2 99.62010 55.9 53.1 26.7 21.8 157.52011 58.1 57.2 27.8 22.5 165.62012 60.8 61.2 30.8 23.1 175.92013E 62.7 64.6 32.3 24.0 183.6Forecast2014 64.0 67.5 34.5 24.5 190.42015 67.5 70.8 36.7 25.5 200.52016 70.9 74.3 38.6 26.4 210.12017 74.2 77.8 40.5 27.3 219.82018 77.4 81.5 42.4 28.1 229.42019 80.7 85.4 44.4 29.0 239.52020 84.0 89.4 46.4 30.0 249.92021 87.5 93.7 48.5 30.9 260.52022 91.0 98.1 50.6 31.9 271.62023 94.6 102.7 52.7 32.9 282.92024 98.3 107.5 54.8 34.0 294.62025 102.1 112.5 57.0 35.1 306.72026 106.0 117.7 59.2 36.2 319.12027 110.0 123.1 61.5 37.3 331.92028 114.1 128.7 63.8 38.5 345.12029 118.3 134.6 66.1 39.7 358.72030 122.8 140.8 68.5 41.0 373.02031 127.4 147.3 70.9 42.3 387.82032 132.0 153.9 73.3 43.6 402.92033 136.8 160.9 75.7 45.0 418.52034 141.8 168.2 78.2 46.5 434.8Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 3.6% 1.6% 1.2% 2.1%2013-14 1.9% 4.5% 6.7% 2.2% 3.7%2013-23 4.2% 4.7% 5.0% 3.2% 4.4%2013-34 4.0% 4.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.2%Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada.

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

100 

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEMYEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)Historical2000 129.3 230.6 145.0 799.8 3,223.2 995.72006 120.1 215.0 135.7 871.4 2,911.5 1,068.82007 120.4 216.1 136.6 870.2 2,939.0 1,073.72008 120.8 218.6 138.2 873.5 2,985.2 1,091.42009 121.8 219.0 140.0 869.7 3,008.1 1,093.12010 121.8 216.4 139.7 875.0 2,983.6 1,104.02011 122.5 216.8 141.1 880.1 2,992.7 1,114.22012 123.4 213.9 141.5 883.6 2,949.6 1,116.12013E 124.9 214.0 142.9 892.4 2,942.2 1,128.2Forecast2014 126.3 214.1 144.4 895.0 2,940.3 1,134.92015 126.6 214.5 145.0 893.8 2,949.0 1,137.32016 126.9 214.9 145.6 894.2 2,955.6 1,141.52017 127.3 215.4 146.3 895.5 2,961.7 1,147.32018 127.7 215.8 147.0 897.9 2,966.3 1,153.62019 128.1 216.3 147.7 900.4 2,970.4 1,160.82020 128.5 216.8 148.5 902.9 2,976.4 1,168.12021 128.9 217.4 149.3 905.4 2,983.7 1,176.12022 129.3 217.9 150.1 907.9 2,990.4 1,184.32023 129.8 218.5 150.9 910.4 2,996.2 1,192.22024 130.2 219.0 151.7 912.8 3,000.2 1,199.82025 130.6 219.5 152.4 915.3 3,003.6 1,207.22026 131.1 220.0 153.2 917.8 3,006.5 1,214.62027 131.5 220.5 153.9 920.3 3,009.2 1,222.22028 131.9 221.0 154.7 922.9 3,011.4 1,229.62029 132.4 221.4 155.5 925.3 3,012.5 1,237.22030 132.8 221.9 156.3 927.9 3,012.9 1,244.92031 133.2 222.3 157.0 930.4 3,013.0 1,252.72032 133.7 222.8 157.8 932.9 3,012.8 1,260.42033 134.1 223.2 158.6 935.4 3,011.9 1,268.22034 134.6 223.6 159.4 937.9 3,010.4 1,276.1*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 9

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

101 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL (Millions) (Billions)YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical

2000 561.5 53.3 614.8 490.0 181.0 670.92006 516.2 68.1 584.4 513.9 206.8 720.72007 533.9 71.9 605.7 529.9 219.5 749.42008 521.6 74.8 596.5 521.3 231.9 753.32009 476.8 71.0 547.8 478.2 220.0 698.22010 473.6 74.7 548.3 480.7 229.6 710.42011 488.4 78.6 567.0 496.7 241.2 737.92012 494.8 79.9 574.6 503.3 242.7 746.12013E 498.8 82.2 581.0 510.9 248.4 759.3Forecast2014 500.6 84.5 585.2 514.7 255.3 770.02015 517.2 88.3 605.5 530.6 267.4 798.12016 532.6 92.3 624.9 546.4 280.0 826.52017 547.2 96.6 643.8 562.0 293.4 855.42018 561.8 100.9 662.6 578.4 306.7 885.12019 574.6 105.3 679.9 593.1 320.4 913.52020 585.7 109.5 695.1 606.1 333.7 939.72021 594.7 113.6 708.2 616.9 346.8 963.72022 603.0 117.7 720.8 627.1 360.2 987.32023 612.0 122.1 734.0 638.1 373.9 1,012.02024 622.6 126.7 749.3 650.7 388.6 1,039.32025 633.6 131.5 765.2 663.9 403.6 1,067.52026 644.8 136.5 781.3 677.3 419.1 1,096.32027 655.6 141.6 797.2 690.4 435.0 1,125.32028 667.0 146.9 813.9 704.1 451.3 1,155.42029 678.1 152.5 830.6 717.6 468.4 1,186.02030 689.2 158.3 847.5 731.3 486.0 1,217.32031 699.9 164.2 864.1 744.4 504.0 1,248.52032 710.7 170.3 881.0 757.8 522.5 1,280.32033 721.6 176.7 898.2 771.3 541.7 1,313.02034 732.5 183.3 915.9 785.0 561.6 1,346.5Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.9% 3.4% -0.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.0%2013-14 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 4.2% 2.9%2013-34 1.8% 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 4.0% 2.8%*Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

102 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical

2000 688.3 490.0 71.2 238.0 181.0 76.0 926.2 670.9 72.42006 648.7 513.9 79.2 258.9 206.8 79.9 907.6 720.7 79.42007 659.0 529.9 80.4 273.4 219.5 80.3 932.4 749.4 80.42008 650.2 521.3 80.2 290.1 231.9 80.0 940.3 753.3 80.12009 587.8 478.2 81.4 281.5 220.0 78.2 869.3 698.2 80.32010 581.5 480.7 82.7 279.5 229.6 82.2 861.0 710.4 82.52011 594.4 496.7 83.6 298.6 241.2 80.8 893.0 737.9 82.62012 598.7 503.3 84.1 297.9 242.7 81.5 896.6 746.1 83.22013E 606.6 510.9 84.2 300.7 248.4 82.6 907.3 759.3 83.7Forecast2014 611.3 514.7 84.2 308.9 255.3 82.7 920.2 770.0 83.72015 628.6 530.6 84.4 323.6 267.4 82.6 952.2 798.1 83.82016 645.9 546.4 84.6 338.9 280.0 82.6 984.9 826.5 83.92017 663.1 562.0 84.8 355.2 293.4 82.6 1,018.3 855.4 84.02018 681.4 578.4 84.9 371.3 306.7 82.6 1,052.7 885.1 84.12019 697.8 593.1 85.0 388.0 320.4 82.6 1,085.8 913.5 84.12020 712.2 606.1 85.1 404.1 333.7 82.6 1,116.3 939.7 84.22021 724.2 616.9 85.2 420.1 346.8 82.6 1,144.3 963.7 84.22022 735.6 627.1 85.3 436.3 360.2 82.5 1,171.9 987.3 84.32023 747.8 638.1 85.3 453.1 373.9 82.5 1,200.8 1,012.0 84.32024 762.1 650.7 85.4 470.8 388.6 82.5 1,232.9 1,039.3 84.32025 777.1 663.9 85.4 489.1 403.6 82.5 1,266.1 1,067.5 84.32026 792.2 677.3 85.5 507.9 419.1 82.5 1,300.1 1,096.3 84.32027 807.1 690.4 85.5 527.2 435.0 82.5 1,334.4 1,125.3 84.32028 822.9 704.1 85.6 547.1 451.3 82.5 1,370.0 1,155.4 84.32029 838.2 717.6 85.6 567.9 468.4 82.5 1,406.1 1,186.0 84.32030 853.9 731.3 85.6 589.3 486.0 82.5 1,443.2 1,217.3 84.32031 868.9 744.4 85.7 611.3 504.0 82.5 1,480.2 1,248.5 84.32032 884.2 757.8 85.7 633.7 522.5 82.4 1,518.0 1,280.3 84.32033 899.7 771.3 85.7 657.1 541.7 82.4 1,556.7 1,313.0 84.32034 915.3 785.0 85.8 681.3 561.6 82.4 1,596.6 1,346.5 84.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.5% -0.2% 1.0%2013-14 0.8% 0.7% 2.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4%2013-23 2.1% 2.2% 4.2% 4.2% 2.8% 2.9%2013-34 2.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.8%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

103 

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

FISCALYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTALHistorical2000 20.9 21.2 11.2 53.32006 22.5 31.7 13.9 68.12007 24.1 34.2 13.6 71.92008 26.0 35.6 13.2 74.82009 24.7 34.3 12.0 71.02010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.62011 25.3 39.8 13.5 78.62012 24.8 41.0 14.0 79.92013E 24.9 43.0 14.4 82.2Forecast2014 25.6 44.7 14.2 84.52015 26.4 46.9 15.0 88.32016 27.2 49.4 15.7 92.32017 28.1 51.9 16.5 96.62018 29.0 54.6 17.3 100.92019 29.8 57.3 18.1 105.32020 30.7 59.9 18.9 109.52021 31.5 62.4 19.7 113.62022 32.3 64.9 20.5 117.72023 33.1 67.6 21.3 122.12024 34.0 70.5 22.2 126.72025 34.9 73.5 23.1 131.52026 35.8 76.7 24.0 136.52027 36.7 80.0 24.9 141.62028 37.7 83.4 25.8 146.92029 38.6 87.0 26.8 152.52030 39.6 90.8 27.8 158.32031 40.6 94.8 28.8 164.22032 41.7 98.8 29.8 170.32033 42.7 103.1 30.9 176.72034 43.8 107.6 31.9 183.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.3% 5.6% 2.0% 3.4%2013-14 3.1% 3.9% -0.9% 2.8%2013-23 2.9% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0%2013-34 2.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.9%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 12

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

104 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTORHistorical

2000 109.9 87.1 79.2 51.4 35.5 69.0 76.6 58.4 76.2 238.0 181.0 76.02006 115.8 93.9 81.1 69.4 51.9 74.9 73.7 61.1 82.8 258.9 206.8 79.92007 126.6 102.2 80.7 72.7 55.9 76.9 74.1 61.4 82.9 273.4 219.5 80.32008 141.0 112.7 80.0 74.2 58.8 79.3 74.9 60.4 80.6 290.1 231.9 80.02009 138.2 108.9 78.9 73.5 56.4 76.8 69.9 54.7 78.3 281.5 220.0 78.22010 130.9 108.6 82.9 78.0 61.8 79.2 70.5 59.2 84.1 279.5 229.6 82.22011 138.3 111.7 80.7 82.5 65.9 79.9 77.8 63.6 81.8 298.6 241.2 80.82012 132.3 107.9 81.5 84.7 68.5 80.9 81.0 66.4 82.0 297.9 242.7 81.52013E 128.4 107.0 83.3 89.7 72.8 81.1 82.6 68.6 83.1 300.7 248.4 82.6Forecast2014 130.9 110.6 84.5 94.5 76.1 80.5 83.4 68.6 82.2 308.9 255.3 82.72015 135.6 114.6 84.5 100.1 80.6 80.5 87.9 72.3 82.2 323.6 267.4 82.62016 140.6 118.8 84.5 106.0 85.4 80.5 92.3 75.9 82.2 338.9 280.0 82.62017 145.8 123.2 84.5 112.2 90.4 80.5 97.1 79.8 82.2 355.2 293.4 82.62018 151.0 127.6 84.5 118.6 95.5 80.5 101.7 83.6 82.2 371.3 306.7 82.62019 156.4 132.2 84.5 125.1 100.7 80.5 106.5 87.5 82.2 388.0 320.4 82.62020 161.6 136.5 84.5 131.3 105.7 80.5 111.3 91.4 82.2 404.1 333.7 82.62021 166.8 140.9 84.5 137.2 110.5 80.5 116.1 95.4 82.2 420.1 346.8 82.62022 172.0 145.3 84.5 143.3 115.4 80.5 121.0 99.5 82.2 436.3 360.2 82.52023 177.3 149.8 84.5 149.7 120.5 80.5 126.1 103.6 82.2 453.1 373.9 82.52024 183.0 154.6 84.5 156.6 126.1 80.5 131.3 107.9 82.2 470.8 388.6 82.52025 188.7 159.5 84.5 163.8 131.8 80.5 136.6 112.3 82.2 489.1 403.6 82.52026 194.6 164.4 84.5 171.2 137.8 80.5 142.1 116.8 82.2 507.9 419.1 82.52027 200.6 169.5 84.5 178.9 144.0 80.5 147.7 121.4 82.2 527.2 435.0 82.52028 206.8 174.7 84.5 186.8 150.4 80.5 153.5 126.2 82.2 547.1 451.3 82.52029 213.2 180.1 84.5 195.3 157.2 80.5 159.4 131.0 82.2 567.9 468.4 82.52030 219.8 185.7 84.5 204.2 164.3 80.5 165.4 136.0 82.2 589.3 486.0 82.52031 226.5 191.4 84.5 213.3 171.7 80.5 171.5 141.0 82.2 611.3 504.0 82.52032 233.4 197.2 84.5 222.6 179.2 80.5 177.7 146.1 82.2 633.7 522.5 82.42033 240.4 203.2 84.5 232.5 187.2 80.5 184.2 151.4 82.2 657.1 541.7 82.42034 247.7 209.3 84.5 242.8 195.5 80.5 190.8 156.8 82.2 681.3 561.6 82.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.2% 1.6% 4.4% 5.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.8% 2.5%2013-14 2.0% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 1.0% -0.1% 2.7% 2.8%2013-23 3.3% 3.4% 5.2% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%2013-34 3.2% 3.2% 4.9% 4.8% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

105 

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)Historical2000 148.8 233.7 179.5 307.8 236.6 164.52006 150.5 229.4 175.2 274.4 221.4 165.72007 150.6 229.2 176.2 279.6 222.3 166.32008 150.3 229.2 177.3 292.3 224.9 167.52009 151.2 230.0 175.8 291.3 223.7 168.92010 151.9 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.12011 152.3 230.5 173.2 282.9 221.0 170.02012 152.7 230.4 171.8 278.3 219.4 169.92013E 153.9 233.3 171.8 276.2 219.2 170.8Forecast2014 155.2 233.8 172.3 276.9 219.1 172.02015 155.5 234.3 172.8 277.7 219.5 172.62016 155.8 234.8 173.3 278.4 219.8 173.12017 156.1 235.3 173.8 279.2 220.1 173.72018 156.4 235.8 174.3 279.9 220.5 174.22019 156.7 236.3 174.8 280.7 220.8 174.82020 157.0 236.8 175.3 281.4 221.2 175.42021 157.3 237.3 175.8 282.2 221.7 176.12022 157.6 237.8 176.3 282.9 222.2 176.72023 157.9 238.3 176.8 283.7 222.6 177.42024 158.2 238.8 177.3 284.4 223.0 178.02025 158.5 239.3 177.8 285.2 223.5 178.62026 158.8 239.8 178.3 285.9 223.9 179.22027 159.2 240.3 178.8 286.7 224.3 179.82028 159.5 240.8 179.3 287.4 224.7 180.42029 159.8 241.3 179.8 288.2 225.1 181.02030 160.1 241.8 180.3 288.9 225.5 181.62031 160.4 242.3 180.8 289.7 225.9 182.22032 160.7 242.8 181.3 290.4 226.2 182.82033 161.0 243.3 181.8 291.2 226.6 183.52034 161.4 243.8 182.3 291.9 227.0 184.1* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 14

INTERNATIONAL 

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

106 

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEMYEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)Historical2000 872.6 4,168.1 1,675.2 5,219.9 3,397.3 1,091.42006 995.5 4,175.4 1,637.0 4,390.4 3,037.0 1,233.42007 992.7 4,247.8 1,634.3 4,515.1 3,054.2 1,237.22008 999.4 4,332.7 1,651.6 4,583.5 3,100.1 1,262.92009 1,003.0 4,402.4 1,645.6 4,549.9 3,097.6 1,274.62010 1,015.1 4,433.0 1,660.1 4,586.6 3,072.5 1,295.62011 1,016.9 4,414.7 1,655.3 4,706.9 3,067.5 1,301.32012 1,017.3 4,355.7 1,668.2 4,725.1 3,039.6 1,298.32013E 1,024.2 4,305.2 1,693.3 4,773.4 3,022.9 1,306.9Forecast2014 1,028.1 4,316.3 1,703.5 4,812.0 3,019.6 1,315.82015 1,026.0 4,338.5 1,717.6 4,816.9 3,027.5 1,318.02016 1,026.0 4,360.8 1,729.7 4,821.7 3,033.0 1,322.52017 1,027.1 4,383.2 1,739.9 4,826.6 3,037.7 1,328.72018 1,029.6 4,405.7 1,748.9 4,831.5 3,041.0 1,335.82019 1,032.2 4,428.4 1,756.9 4,836.4 3,043.6 1,343.72020 1,034.8 4,451.1 1,764.1 4,841.3 3,048.1 1,351.82021 1,037.4 4,474.0 1,771.0 4,846.2 3,053.9 1,360.82022 1,040.0 4,497.0 1,777.3 4,851.1 3,059.1 1,369.82023 1,042.6 4,520.1 1,782.9 4,856.0 3,063.4 1,378.72024 1,045.2 4,543.3 1,788.0 4,860.9 3,066.1 1,387.02025 1,047.8 4,566.7 1,792.6 4,865.8 3,068.2 1,395.12026 1,050.4 4,590.2 1,796.7 4,870.7 3,069.7 1,403.22027 1,053.0 4,613.8 1,800.6 4,875.6 3,071.1 1,411.52028 1,055.7 4,637.5 1,803.9 4,880.5 3,072.0 1,419.72029 1,058.3 4,661.3 1,806.8 4,885.5 3,071.7 1,428.02030 1,061.0 4,685.3 1,809.3 4,890.4 3,070.7 1,436.32031 1,063.6 4,709.4 1,811.4 4,895.4 3,069.5 1,444.82032 1,066.3 4,733.6 1,813.3 4,900.3 3,068.0 1,453.32033 1,068.9 4,757.9 1,814.7 4,905.3 3,065.8 1,461.72034 1,071.6 4,782.4 1,815.8 4,910.2 3,063.0 1,470.3* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 15

INTERNATIONAL 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

107 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical

2000 14.03 19.08 10.46 14.22 13.06 17.772006 12.36 14.31 11.63 13.47 12.15 14.072007 12.45 14.08 12.45 14.09 12.45 14.082008 13.11 14.20 13.37 14.49 13.19 14.292009 11.95 12.99 11.68 12.69 11.87 12.892010 12.87 13.75 12.83 13.71 12.86 13.742011 13.62 14.18 14.09 14.67 13.77 14.342012 14.08 14.31 14.72 14.96 14.28 14.522013E 14.42 14.42 14.76 14.76 14.52 14.52Forecast2014 14.85 14.63 14.99 14.78 14.90 14.682015 15.04 14.59 15.14 14.68 15.07 14.622016 15.29 14.56 15.34 14.61 15.31 14.582017 15.57 14.55 15.53 14.51 15.55 14.542018 15.79 14.48 15.74 14.43 15.77 14.472019 16.02 14.42 15.93 14.34 15.99 14.392020 16.24 14.34 16.14 14.26 16.21 14.312021 16.47 14.27 16.36 14.17 16.43 14.232022 16.69 14.18 16.57 14.08 16.65 14.142023 16.90 14.09 16.78 14.00 16.86 14.062024 17.12 14.01 17.00 13.91 17.08 13.972025 17.35 13.92 17.23 13.82 17.30 13.882026 17.57 13.83 17.46 13.74 17.53 13.802027 17.82 13.74 17.71 13.66 17.78 13.712028 18.05 13.65 17.96 13.58 18.01 13.622029 18.29 13.57 18.21 13.50 18.26 13.542030 18.54 13.48 18.47 13.43 18.51 13.462031 18.80 13.39 18.75 13.36 18.78 13.382032 19.07 13.31 19.03 13.27 19.05 13.292033 19.35 13.22 19.31 13.20 19.33 13.212034 19.64 13.13 19.61 13.11 19.63 13.12Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.2% -2.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.8% -1.5%2013-14 3.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 2.6% 1.1%2013-23 1.6% -0.2% 1.3% -0.5% 1.5% -0.3%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.4% -0.6% 1.4% -0.5%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

108 

 

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical

2000 9.73 13.24 13.00 17.69 9.99 13.59 10.46 14.222006 11.64 13.48 12.68 14.69 10.73 12.43 11.63 13.472007 12.46 14.10 13.37 15.13 11.61 13.13 12.45 14.092008 13.29 14.40 14.19 15.37 12.73 13.79 13.37 14.492009 11.25 12.22 12.99 14.11 11.20 12.17 11.68 12.692010 12.73 13.60 13.33 14.24 12.50 13.35 12.83 13.712011 13.48 14.04 15.13 15.75 14.07 14.65 14.09 14.672012 13.95 14.18 15.71 15.96 14.95 15.19 14.72 14.962013E 14.44 14.44 15.61 15.61 14.30 14.30 14.76 14.76Forecast2014 14.80 14.59 15.74 15.52 14.48 14.27 14.99 14.782015 14.96 14.51 15.83 15.36 14.63 14.20 15.14 14.682016 15.16 14.44 16.02 15.26 14.84 14.13 15.34 14.612017 15.38 14.37 16.18 15.13 15.03 14.04 15.53 14.512018 15.59 14.30 16.37 15.01 15.24 13.98 15.74 14.432019 15.80 14.23 16.53 14.88 15.43 13.89 15.93 14.342020 16.03 14.15 16.72 14.76 15.65 13.82 16.14 14.262021 16.26 14.08 16.91 14.64 15.87 13.74 16.36 14.172022 16.49 14.01 17.10 14.53 16.09 13.67 16.57 14.082023 16.72 13.94 17.28 14.41 16.30 13.59 16.78 14.002024 16.96 13.87 17.47 14.29 16.52 13.52 17.00 13.912025 17.20 13.80 17.66 14.17 16.76 13.45 17.23 13.822026 17.45 13.74 17.86 14.06 17.00 13.38 17.46 13.742027 17.72 13.67 18.08 13.95 17.26 13.31 17.71 13.662028 17.98 13.60 18.30 13.84 17.52 13.25 17.96 13.582029 18.24 13.53 18.53 13.74 17.78 13.19 18.21 13.502030 18.52 13.46 18.76 13.64 18.06 13.13 18.47 13.432031 18.80 13.40 19.02 13.55 18.34 13.07 18.75 13.362032 19.10 13.33 19.26 13.44 18.64 13.01 19.03 13.272033 19.41 13.26 19.51 13.33 18.95 12.95 19.31 13.202034 19.72 13.18 19.76 13.21 19.26 12.88 19.61 13.11Avg Annual Growth2000-13 3.1% 0.7% 1.4% -1.0% 2.8% 0.4% 2.7% 0.3%2013-14 2.5% 1.0% 0.9% -0.6% 1.3% -0.2% 1.6% 0.1%2013-23 1.5% -0.4% 1.0% -0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 1.3% -0.5%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.1% -0.8% 1.4% -0.5% 1.4% -0.6%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

109 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $ CURRENT $ FY 2013 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical

2000 71.49 97.26 79.35 107.95 73.57 100.082006 194.69 225.45 204.69 237.04 197.72 228.972007 194.01 219.50 203.31 230.02 196.90 222.772008 292.64 317.02 314.57 340.78 299.74 324.712009 202.31 219.82 208.41 226.45 204.35 222.032010 219.19 234.16 220.06 235.09 219.49 234.482011 274.41 285.69 271.77 282.94 273.44 284.682012 295.00 299.84 287.40 292.12 292.13 296.922013E 294.53 294.53 283.64 283.64 290.40 290.40Forecast2014 288.28 284.11 277.62 273.60 284.23 280.132015 274.15 265.97 264.02 256.14 270.31 262.242016 271.43 258.52 261.39 248.96 267.62 254.892017 278.20 259.99 267.92 250.37 274.30 256.342018 287.31 263.51 276.69 253.77 283.29 259.822019 297.16 267.50 286.17 257.61 292.99 263.752020 306.56 270.73 295.22 260.72 302.26 266.932021 315.16 272.91 303.51 262.82 310.74 269.092022 322.10 273.67 310.19 263.55 317.59 269.832023 328.83 274.23 316.67 264.09 324.22 270.392024 335.58 274.54 323.17 264.39 330.87 270.692025 341.79 274.28 329.16 264.14 337.00 270.432026 348.00 273.88 335.13 263.76 343.12 270.042027 354.25 273.21 341.15 263.11 349.28 269.382028 360.61 272.75 347.27 262.66 355.55 268.922029 367.14 272.28 353.57 262.21 362.00 268.462030 373.84 271.79 360.02 261.74 368.60 267.982031 380.77 271.24 366.70 261.21 375.44 267.442032 387.85 270.62 373.51 260.61 382.41 266.822033 395.03 269.91 380.43 259.93 389.49 266.132034 402.35 268.99 387.47 259.04 396.71 265.21Avg Annual Growth2000-13 11.5% 8.9% 10.3% 7.7% 11.1% 8.5%2013-14 -2.1% -3.5% -2.1% -3.5% -2.1% -3.5%2013-23 1.1% -0.7% 1.1% -0.7% 1.1% -0.7%2013-34 1.5% -0.4% 1.5% -0.4% 1.5% -0.4%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

110 

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTALHistorical

2000 10,423.7 7,960.6 18,384.3 4,456.1 7,879.9 12,336.0 14,879.8 15,840.5 30,720.32006 12,481.2 15,725.4 28,206.6 2,899.7 8,483.5 11,383.2 15,380.9 24,208.9 39,589.82007 12,940.5 17,502.7 30,443.2 2,278.6 7,187.0 9,465.7 15,219.1 24,689.7 39,908.82008 12,260.7 17,516.1 29,776.7 2,147.0 6,905.4 9,052.4 14,407.6 24,421.5 38,829.12009 10,275.3 13,834.3 24,109.7 1,623.2 5,265.9 6,889.1 11,898.6 19,100.2 30,998.82010 11,243.2 16,732.7 27,975.9 1,579.8 6,331.9 7,911.7 12,823.1 23,064.5 35,887.62011 10,601.2 18,979.4 29,580.5 1,445.7 6,250.5 7,696.2 12,046.9 25,229.8 37,276.72012 10,880.3 18,312.3 29,192.5 1,414.5 5,949.5 7,364.0 12,294.8 24,261.8 36,556.62013E 10,991.5 16,739.6 27,731.1 1,383.7 5,697.6 7,081.3 12,375.2 22,437.2 34,812.4Forecast2014 11,138.3 16,909.2 28,047.4 1,388.0 5,664.6 7,052.6 12,526.3 22,573.8 35,100.02015 11,389.6 18,471.8 29,861.4 1,404.9 6,089.7 7,494.6 12,794.5 24,561.5 37,356.02016 11,667.2 19,987.4 31,654.6 1,428.2 6,483.7 7,911.9 13,095.3 26,471.2 39,566.52017 11,920.7 21,518.0 33,438.7 1,447.9 6,867.5 8,315.4 13,368.6 28,385.5 41,754.12018 12,144.7 22,992.1 35,136.8 1,463.7 7,218.4 8,682.1 13,608.4 30,210.5 43,818.82019 12,343.4 24,492.1 36,835.5 1,476.0 7,562.9 9,039.0 13,819.5 32,055.0 45,874.52020 12,520.3 25,915.6 38,435.9 1,485.4 7,869.8 9,355.3 14,005.8 33,785.4 47,791.22021 12,679.3 27,329.0 40,008.2 1,492.4 8,160.3 9,652.7 14,171.7 35,489.2 49,660.92022 12,831.2 28,782.5 41,613.7 1,498.3 8,449.2 9,947.5 14,329.5 37,231.7 51,561.22023 12,980.8 30,301.3 43,282.0 1,503.6 8,743.5 10,247.1 14,484.4 39,044.8 53,529.22024 13,133.0 31,951.8 45,084.8 1,509.0 9,061.3 10,570.2 14,642.0 41,013.0 55,655.02025 13,289.9 33,634.4 46,924.3 1,514.6 9,372.8 10,887.5 14,804.6 43,007.2 57,811.82026 13,450.6 35,383.6 48,834.2 1,520.4 9,687.4 11,207.8 14,971.0 45,070.9 60,042.02027 13,614.7 37,215.2 50,829.9 1,526.3 10,008.4 11,534.7 15,141.0 47,223.6 62,364.62028 13,781.0 39,115.3 52,896.3 1,532.2 10,331.2 11,863.4 15,313.2 49,446.5 64,759.72029 13,950.8 41,099.8 55,050.6 1,538.2 10,659.0 12,197.2 15,489.0 51,758.8 67,247.82030 14,123.5 43,161.4 57,285.0 1,544.2 10,989.1 12,533.3 15,667.7 54,150.5 69,818.22031 14,297.5 45,289.2 59,586.7 1,550.0 11,317.8 12,867.8 15,847.5 56,607.0 72,454.52032 14,472.8 47,501.1 61,973.9 1,555.7 11,648.7 13,204.4 16,028.5 59,149.8 75,178.32033 14,651.5 49,836.2 64,487.7 1,561.4 11,990.4 13,551.9 16,212.9 61,826.6 78,039.52034 14,833.3 52,258.3 67,091.7 1,567.2 12,332.8 13,900.0 16,400.5 64,591.1 80,991.6Avg Annual Growth2000-13 0.4% 5.9% 3.2% -8.6% -2.5% -4.2% -1.4% 2.7% 1.0%2013-14 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% -0.6% -0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8%2013-23 1.7% 6.1% 4.6% 0.8% 4.4% 3.8% 1.6% 5.7% 4.4%2013-34 1.4% 5.6% 4.3% 0.6% 3.7% 3.3% 1.4% 5.2% 4.1%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new 

 reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 

3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

111 

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC OTHER INTERNATIONAL TOTALYEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)Historical

2000 5,416.8 1,791.2 7,543.8 1,088.7 15,840.52006 6,084.1 2,004.9 9,564.2 6,555.6 24,208.92007 6,124.7 2,304.2 9,497.3 6,763.5 24,689.72008 6,415.4 2,336.3 9,050.0 6,619.8 24,421.52009 5,740.1 1,793.4 6,855.4 4,711.2 19,100.22010 6,865.3 1,990.6 8,348.4 5,860.3 23,064.52011 7,235.5 1,832.4 9,105.4 7,056.5 25,229.82012 7,026.5 1,870.0 8,568.9 6,796.4 24,261.82013E 6,658.2 1,788.6 8,184.2 5,806.3 22,437.2Forecast2014 6,589.7 1,758.3 8,684.7 5,541.1 22,573.82015 7,059.5 1,909.3 9,485.8 6,106.9 24,561.52016 7,532.7 2,055.9 10,294.0 6,588.6 26,471.22017 8,014.9 2,199.8 11,144.9 7,025.8 28,385.52018 8,481.8 2,337.5 11,955.9 7,435.3 30,210.52019 8,946.6 2,471.4 12,788.1 7,848.9 32,055.02020 9,399.4 2,594.9 13,530.0 8,261.1 33,785.42021 9,851.7 2,712.6 14,240.9 8,684.0 35,489.22022 10,311.5 2,829.9 14,977.6 9,112.8 37,231.72023 10,789.2 2,949.2 15,755.6 9,550.8 39,044.82024 11,297.9 3,076.0 16,634.7 10,004.4 41,013.02025 11,817.4 3,203.1 17,519.7 10,467.0 43,007.22026 12,352.3 3,333.1 18,442.7 10,942.8 45,070.92027 12,910.8 3,467.1 19,409.4 11,436.3 47,223.62028 13,490.7 3,604.6 20,409.4 11,941.8 49,446.52029 14,095.4 3,747.4 21,456.4 12,459.5 51,758.82030 14,726.6 3,895.1 22,540.3 12,988.5 54,150.52031 15,381.2 4,047.0 23,650.7 13,528.1 56,607.02032 16,059.6 4,204.3 24,805.4 14,080.5 59,149.82033 16,770.0 4,369.7 26,034.8 14,652.1 61,826.62034 17,508.7 4,540.8 27,304.0 15,237.7 64,591.1Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.6% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 2.7%2013-14 -1.0% -1.7% 6.1% -4.6% 0.6%2013-23 4.9% 5.1% 6.8% 5.1% 5.7%2013-34 4.7% 4.5% 5.9% 4.7% 5.2%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

112 

TABLE 21

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTALYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETSHistorical2000 3,364 385 0 3,749 424 169 120 713 4,462 26 4,4882006 3,302 26 0 3,328 462 19 49 530 3,858 39 3,8972007 3,354 29 0 3,383 477 12 47 536 3,919 63 3,9822008 3,170 10 1 3,181 471 9 44 524 3,705 79 3,7842009 3,108 9 1 3,118 447 9 42 498 3,616 78 3,6942010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,7222011 3,127 7 1 3,135 471 7 41 519 3,654 76 3,7302012 3,121 7 0 3,128 480 3 40 523 3,651 82 3,7332013E 3,155 5 0 3,160 481 0 40 521 3,681 93 3,774Forecast2014 3,174 5 0 3,179 489 0 40 529 3,708 96 3,8042015 3,199 5 0 3,204 507 0 40 547 3,751 102 3,8532016 3,238 5 0 3,243 527 0 40 567 3,810 108 3,9182017 3,271 5 0 3,276 543 0 40 583 3,859 114 3,9732018 3,273 5 0 3,278 578 0 40 618 3,896 107 4,0032019 3,291 5 0 3,296 594 0 31 625 3,921 97 4,0182020 3,336 5 0 3,341 633 0 16 649 3,990 97 4,0872021 3,376 5 0 3,381 670 0 12 682 4,063 97 4,1602022 3,430 1 0 3,431 701 0 6 707 4,138 97 4,2352023 3,476 0 0 3,476 714 0 4 718 4,194 97 4,2912024 3,512 0 0 3,512 731 0 0 731 4,243 97 4,3402025 3,554 0 0 3,554 757 0 0 757 4,311 102 4,4132026 3,601 0 0 3,601 775 0 0 775 4,376 107 4,4832027 3,635 0 0 3,635 783 0 0 783 4,418 112 4,5302028 3,665 0 0 3,665 808 0 0 808 4,473 114 4,5872029 3,718 0 0 3,718 833 0 0 833 4,551 114 4,6652030 3,779 0 0 3,779 860 0 0 860 4,639 114 4,7532031 3,839 0 0 3,839 885 0 0 885 4,724 113 4,8372032 3,895 0 0 3,895 918 0 0 918 4,813 113 4,9262033 3,948 0 0 3,948 948 0 0 948 4,896 113 5,0092034 4,016 0 0 4,016 983 0 0 983 4,999 113 5,112Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.5% -28.4% N/A -1.3% 1.0% -100.0% -8.1% -2.4% -1.5% 10.3% -1.3%2013-14 0.6% 0.0% N/A 0.6% 1.7% N/A 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 3.2% 0.8%2013-23 1.0% -100.0% N/A 1.0% 4.0% N/A -20.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.3%2013-34 1.2% -100.0% N/A 1.1% 3.5% N/A -100.0% 3.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

113 

TABLE 22

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTALHistorical2000 166 332 176 674 164 158 68 390 1,0642006 162 220 78 460 260 208 80 548 1,0082007 162 162 75 399 272 213 86 571 9702008 163 116 29 308 274 207 82 563 8712009 154 107 30 291 253 196 82 531 8222010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 8502011 175 89 26 290 281 203 96 580 8702012 186 67 12 265 292 188 93 573 8382013E 191 15 0 206 296 174 64 534 740Forecast2014 191 15 0 206 294 174 64 532 7382015 193 15 0 208 301 172 67 540 7482016 199 13 0 212 309 173 70 552 7642017 204 13 0 217 316 171 73 560 7772018 210 13 0 223 338 167 73 578 8012019 213 13 0 226 356 164 75 595 8212020 216 11 0 227 374 154 78 606 8332021 219 9 0 228 390 144 81 615 8432022 224 7 0 231 408 136 84 628 8592023 235 2 0 237 421 131 88 640 8772024 243 0 0 243 439 128 91 658 9012025 251 0 0 251 453 127 92 672 9232026 257 0 0 257 470 127 94 691 9482027 263 0 0 263 490 128 95 713 9762028 270 0 0 270 511 129 97 737 1,0072029 275 0 0 275 530 129 99 758 1,0332030 282 0 0 282 551 129 102 782 1,0642031 288 0 0 288 569 130 105 804 1,0922032 294 0 0 294 589 131 110 830 1,1242033 299 0 0 299 608 131 113 852 1,1512034 306 0 0 306 628 132 116 876 1,182Avg Annual Growth2000-13 1.1% -21.2% -100.0% -8.7% 4.6% 0.7% -0.5% 2.4% -2.8%2013-14 0.0% 0.0% N/A 0.0% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.3%2013-23 2.1% -18.2% N/A 1.4% 3.6% -2.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.7%2013-34 2.3% -100.0% N/A 1.9% 3.6% -1.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

114 

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FISCAL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1,2 GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL

YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMEDHistorical

2000 15,030 5,484 20,513 972 21,485 2 333 335 21,3502006 13,775 6,186 19,961 1,643 21,603 2 283 285 21,8892007 13,882 6,309 20,191 1,486 21,676 2 274 276 21,9522008 13,397 6,499 19,896 1,706 21,602 2 248 250 21,8522009 11,896 6,033 17,929 1,447 19,376 2 227 229 19,6062010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,9212011 12,092 6,547 18,639 1,456 20,095 2 217 219 20,3152012 12,038 6,590 18,628 1,435 20,063 2 206 208 20,2722013E 11,812 6,355 18,167 1,413 19,580 2 202 204 19,785Forecast2014 11,810 6,462 18,271 1,470 19,741 2 200 202 19,9432015 12,035 6,703 18,738 1,521 20,259 2 197 199 20,4582016 12,252 6,950 19,202 1,576 20,777 2 195 197 20,9742017 12,461 7,209 19,670 1,636 21,305 2 193 195 21,5002018 12,681 7,462 20,143 1,694 21,837 2 191 193 22,0312019 12,862 7,719 20,581 1,757 22,338 2 190 192 22,5302020 13,002 7,958 20,960 1,823 22,783 2 189 191 22,9742021 13,094 8,190 21,283 1,878 23,161 2 188 190 23,3512022 13,171 8,420 21,591 1,935 23,526 2 188 190 23,7162023 13,260 8,655 21,916 1,990 23,906 2 188 190 24,0952024 13,384 8,905 22,289 2,045 24,334 2 188 190 24,5242025 13,515 9,157 22,672 2,104 24,775 2 188 190 24,9652026 13,645 9,414 23,059 2,158 25,218 2 188 190 25,4072027 13,767 9,675 23,442 2,216 25,658 2 188 190 25,8492028 13,899 9,939 23,838 2,276 26,114 2 188 190 26,3042029 14,021 10,214 24,235 2,336 26,571 2 189 191 26,7622030 14,144 10,493 24,637 2,394 27,031 2 189 191 27,2222031 14,254 10,775 25,029 2,454 27,483 2 190 192 27,6752032 14,365 11,060 25,424 2,511 27,936 2 192 194 28,1292033 14,474 11,353 25,827 2,568 28,395 2 193 195 28,5902034 14,584 11,653 26,237 2,629 28,866 2 195 197 29,062Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.8% 1.1% -0.9% 2.9% -0.7% 0.0% -3.8% -3.7% -0.6%2013-14 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0% -1.2% -1.2% 0.8%2013-23 1.2% 3.1% 1.9% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 2.0%2013-34 1.0% 2.9% 1.8% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% 1.8%* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in ASMs/Gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

115 

REVENUE PER

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM CURRENT $ 2013$YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)Historical

2000 38.4 41.8 38.5 286.5 260.0 285.5 30.28 41.202006 49.3 52.2 49.4 450.4 467.2 450.7 19.84 22.982007 49.9 54.0 50.0 451.5 518.1 452.9 19.95 22.572008 52.9 53.4 53.0 460.8 532.7 462.3 21.04 22.792009 55.2 52.8 55.1 456.9 512.3 457.8 17.04 18.522010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464.3 502.9 465.0 15.73 16.812011 56.4 52.7 56.3 467.0 531.4 468.0 15.10 15.732012 56.1 54.8 56.0 467.4 605.7 470.0 13.16 13.382013E 56.1 55.1 56.1 469.3 641.5 472.4 11.66 11.66Forecast2014 57.5 55.4 57.5 471.7 646.5 474.9 12.00 11.832015 57.9 55.7 57.9 473.3 651.5 476.6 12.15 11.792016 58.3 56.0 58.3 474.8 656.5 478.2 12.36 11.772017 58.8 56.3 58.7 476.8 661.5 480.2 12.58 11.752018 59.2 56.6 59.1 478.8 666.5 482.3 12.76 11.702019 59.6 56.9 59.6 480.8 671.5 484.3 12.94 11.652020 60.1 57.2 60.0 482.8 676.5 486.4 13.12 11.592021 60.5 57.5 60.5 484.8 681.5 488.4 13.30 11.522022 61.0 57.8 60.9 486.8 686.5 490.5 13.48 11.452023 61.4 58.1 61.3 488.8 691.5 492.5 13.64 11.382024 61.9 58.4 61.8 490.8 696.5 494.6 13.82 11.312025 62.3 58.7 62.3 492.8 701.5 496.6 14.00 11.242026 62.8 59.0 62.7 494.8 706.5 498.7 14.18 11.162027 63.3 59.3 63.2 496.8 711.5 500.8 14.38 11.092028 63.7 59.6 63.6 498.8 716.5 502.8 14.57 11.022029 64.2 59.9 64.1 500.8 721.5 504.9 14.76 10.952030 64.7 60.2 64.6 502.8 726.5 506.9 14.96 10.882031 65.2 60.5 65.0 504.8 731.5 509.0 15.17 10.802032 65.6 60.8 65.5 506.8 736.5 511.0 15.39 10.732033 66.1 61.1 66.0 508.8 741.5 513.1 15.61 10.662034 66.6 61.4 66.5 510.8 746.5 515.1 15.85 10.59Avg Annual Growth2000-13 3.0% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 7.2% 3.9% -7.1% -9.3%2013-14 2.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 3.0% 1.5%2013-23 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.6% -0.2%2013-34 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% -0.5%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation. ** Reporting carriers.

TABLE 24

PASSENGER MILE**

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

116 

(In Millions)

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILESYEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMHistorical2000 79.7 3.1 82.8 22,825 814 23,6392006 152.2 3.5 155.7 68,532 1,634 70,1662007 156.2 3.4 159.6 70,528 1,772 72,3002008 159.1 3.5 162.6 73,305 1,867 75,1722009 154.0 2.5 156.6 70,374 1,304 71,6782010 161.6 2.7 164.3 75,053 1,347 76,4002011 161.7 2.4 164.1 75,513 1,270 76,7832012 159.0 3.1 162.1 74,330 1,856 76,1862013E 155.5 2.9 158.3 72,951 1,851 74,801Forecast2014 157.5 2.9 160.4 74,278 1,889 76,1672015 162.6 3.0 165.6 76,974 1,966 78,9402016 167.4 3.1 170.5 79,496 2,040 81,5362017 172.0 3.2 175.1 81,997 2,111 84,1082018 176.5 3.3 179.8 84,510 2,183 86,6932019 180.5 3.3 183.8 86,782 2,249 89,0312020 183.9 3.4 187.3 88,797 2,309 91,1052021 186.7 3.5 190.1 90,509 2,361 92,8692022 189.2 3.5 192.8 92,132 2,411 94,5432023 192.0 3.6 195.6 93,859 2,464 96,3232024 195.3 3.6 198.9 95,851 2,524 98,3752025 198.7 3.7 202.4 97,922 2,586 100,5092026 202.1 3.8 205.9 100,017 2,650 102,6672027 205.5 3.8 209.3 102,083 2,713 104,7962028 209.0 3.9 212.8 104,243 2,778 107,0222029 212.4 3.9 216.3 106,372 2,844 109,2152030 215.8 4.0 219.8 108,522 2,910 111,4312031 219.2 4.1 223.2 110,642 2,975 113,6172032 222.5 4.1 226.7 112,792 3,041 115,8332033 225.9 4.2 230.1 114,969 3,109 118,0782034 229.4 4.3 233.6 117,174 3,177 120,351Avg Annual Growth2000-13 5.3% -0.6% 5.1% 9.3% 6.5% 9.3%2013-14 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8%2013-23 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6%2013-34 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

117 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOADYEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTORHistorical

2000 38,332 22,825 59.5 1,338 814 60.8 39,670 23,639 59.62006 91,458 68,532 74.9 2,387 1,634 68.5 93,845 70,166 74.82007 93,452 70,528 75.5 2,550 1,772 69.5 96,002 72,300 75.32008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.6 2009 94,664 70,374 74.3 1,859 1,304 70.2 96,523 71,678 74.3 2010 98,489 75,053 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,346 76,400 76.12011 99,075 75,513 76.2 1,818 1,270 69.9 100,893 76,783 76.12012 95,748 74,330 77.6 2,595 1,856 71.5 98,343 76,186 77.52013E 93,075 72,951 78.4 2,448 1,851 75.6 95,523 74,801 78.3Forecast2014 95,151 74,278 78.1 2,482 1,889 76.1 97,633 76,167 78.02015 98,554 76,974 78.1 2,567 1,966 76.6 101,120 78,940 78.12016 101,736 79,496 78.1 2,645 2,040 77.1 104,381 81,536 78.12017 104,890 81,997 78.2 2,720 2,111 77.6 107,610 84,108 78.22018 108,060 84,510 78.2 2,795 2,183 78.1 110,855 86,693 78.22019 110,921 86,782 78.2 2,861 2,249 78.6 113,782 89,031 78.22020 113,455 88,797 78.3 2,919 2,309 79.1 116,374 91,105 78.32021 115,602 90,509 78.3 2,966 2,361 79.6 118,568 92,869 78.32022 117,638 92,132 78.3 3,010 2,411 80.1 120,648 94,543 78.42023 119,806 93,859 78.3 3,057 2,464 80.6 122,863 96,323 78.42024 122,312 95,851 78.4 3,112 2,524 81.1 125,425 98,375 78.42025 124,921 97,922 78.4 3,170 2,586 81.6 128,091 100,509 78.52026 127,560 100,017 78.4 3,238 2,650 81.8 130,798 102,667 78.52027 130,162 102,083 78.4 3,304 2,713 82.1 133,467 104,796 78.52028 132,885 104,243 78.4 3,374 2,778 82.3 136,259 107,022 78.52029 135,567 106,372 78.5 3,443 2,844 82.6 139,010 109,215 78.62030 138,277 108,522 78.5 3,518 2,910 82.7 141,796 111,431 78.62031 140,949 110,642 78.5 3,593 2,975 82.8 144,542 113,617 78.62032 143,660 112,792 78.5 3,669 3,041 82.9 147,329 115,833 78.62033 146,406 114,969 78.5 3,746 3,109 83.0 150,152 118,078 78.62034 149,185 117,174 78.5 3,824 3,177 83.1 153,009 120,351 78.7Avg Annual Growth2000-13 7.1% 9.3% 4.8% 6.5% 7.0% 9.3%2013-14 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8%2013-23 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6%2013-34 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

118 

TABLE 27

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEETJANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTALHistorical

2000 470 343 262 474 74 548 155 496 651 1,704 570 2,2742006 453 204 88 224 92 316 87 1,584 1,671 1,056 1,676 2,7322007 453 172 79 228 91 319 101 1,656 1,757 1,033 1,747 2,7802008 451 107 68 180 25 205 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,755 2,6822009 466 103 65 153 29 182 115 1,722 1,837 902 1,751 2,6532010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,6132011 447 94 67 113 27 140 135 1,683 1,818 856 1,710 2,5662012 394 90 55 115 23 138 104 1,559 1,663 758 1,582 2,3402013E 337 94 52 37 0 37 51 1,642 1,693 571 1,642 2,213Forecast2014 326 91 50 36 0 36 53 1,646 1,699 556 1,646 2,2022015 317 88 49 35 0 35 54 1,642 1,696 543 1,642 2,1852016 304 85 47 33 0 33 57 1,640 1,697 526 1,640 2,1662017 293 82 45 32 0 32 59 1,645 1,704 511 1,645 2,1562018 282 79 43 31 0 31 61 1,644 1,705 496 1,644 2,1402019 271 75 42 30 0 30 62 1,660 1,722 480 1,660 2,1402020 258 72 40 28 0 28 64 1,668 1,732 462 1,668 2,1302021 247 69 38 27 0 27 67 1,689 1,756 448 1,689 2,1372022 234 65 36 26 0 26 69 1,712 1,781 430 1,712 2,1422023 219 61 34 24 0 24 72 1,724 1,796 410 1,724 2,1342024 204 57 32 22 0 22 75 1,740 1,815 390 1,740 2,1302025 190 53 29 21 0 21 77 1,752 1,829 370 1,752 2,1222026 173 48 27 19 0 19 80 1,768 1,848 347 1,768 2,1152027 157 44 24 17 0 17 83 1,784 1,867 325 1,784 2,1092028 144 40 22 16 0 16 85 1,801 1,886 307 1,801 2,1082029 129 36 20 14 0 14 89 1,827 1,916 288 1,827 2,1152030 116 32 18 13 0 13 91 1,855 1,946 270 1,855 2,1252031 99 28 15 11 0 11 94 1,879 1,973 247 1,879 2,1262032 85 24 13 9 0 9 97 1,904 2,001 228 1,904 2,1322033 72 20 11 8 0 8 100 1,928 2,028 211 1,928 2,1392034 55 15 9 6 0 6 103 1,953 2,056 188 1,953 2,141Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -2.5% -9.5% -11.7% -17.8% -100.0% -18.7% -8.2% 9.6% 7.6% -8.1% 8.5% -0.2%2013-14 -3.3% -3.2% -3.8% -2.7% N/A -2.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.4% -2.6% 0.2% -0.5%2013-23 -4.2% -4.2% -4.2% -4.2% N/A -4.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.6% -3.3% 0.5% -0.4%2013-34 -8.3% -8.4% -8.0% -8.3% N/A -8.3% 3.4% 0.8% 0.9% -5.2% 0.8% -0.2%*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

119 

 

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

AS OF SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINESHistorical

2000 149,422 21,091 170,513 5,762 7,001 12,763 2,680 4,470 7,150 20,407 NA 6,700 217,533 173,193 17,2332006 145,036 18,708 163,744 8,063 10,379 18,442 3,264 5,895 9,159 23,047 1,273 6,277 221,942 167,008 24,3372007 147,569 19,337 166,906 9,514 10,385 19,899 2,769 6,798 9,567 23,228 6,066 5,940 231,606 169,675 26,6972008 145,497 17,515 163,012 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,664 166,510 26,3272009 140,649 16,474 157,123 9,055 11,268 20,323 3,499 6,485 9,984 24,419 6,547 5,480 223,876 160,622 26,8082010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,3672011E 136,895 15,702 152,597 9,523 11,650 21,173 3,411 6,671 10,082 24,275 6,645 5,681 220,453 156,008 27,8442012 128,847 14,313 143,160 10,304 11,793 22,097 3,292 6,763 10,055 26,715 2,001 5,006 209,034 146,452 28,8602013E 123,730 14,235 137,965 10,195 11,890 22,085 3,360 7,025 10,385 25,305 2,110 5,015 202,865 141,325 29,110Forecast2014 122,755 14,180 136,935 10,160 12,055 22,215 3,430 7,280 10,710 25,895 2,240 5,025 203,020 140,365 29,4952015 121,850 14,130 135,980 10,175 12,250 22,425 3,500 7,545 11,045 26,415 2,370 5,035 203,270 139,480 29,9702016 121,000 14,075 135,075 10,190 12,540 22,730 3,570 7,820 11,390 26,880 2,515 5,040 203,630 138,645 30,5502017 120,200 14,020 134,220 10,230 12,875 23,105 3,640 8,110 11,750 27,305 2,690 5,050 204,120 137,860 31,2152018 119,435 13,955 133,390 10,285 13,225 23,510 3,710 8,405 12,115 27,705 2,830 5,065 204,615 137,100 31,9152019 118,700 13,890 132,590 10,355 13,600 23,955 3,775 8,690 12,465 28,100 2,955 5,075 205,140 136,365 32,6452020 118,015 13,820 131,835 10,445 14,010 24,455 3,840 8,990 12,830 28,500 3,080 5,080 205,780 135,675 33,4452021 117,365 13,735 131,100 10,550 14,425 24,975 3,905 9,290 13,195 28,900 3,195 5,085 206,450 135,005 34,2652022 116,760 13,655 130,415 10,685 14,855 25,540 3,970 9,585 13,555 29,310 3,315 5,100 207,235 134,385 35,1252023 116,190 13,575 129,765 10,820 15,315 26,135 4,030 9,870 13,900 29,715 3,450 5,110 208,075 133,795 36,0052024 115,660 13,500 129,160 11,000 15,800 26,800 4,090 10,150 14,240 30,130 3,595 5,115 209,040 133,250 36,9502025 115,200 13,435 128,635 11,205 16,325 27,530 4,150 10,435 14,585 30,555 3,745 5,120 210,170 132,785 37,9652026 114,790 13,360 128,150 11,455 16,870 28,325 4,210 10,720 14,930 30,980 3,885 5,135 211,405 132,360 39,0452027 114,430 13,295 127,725 11,735 17,445 29,180 4,275 11,010 15,285 31,415 4,030 5,145 212,780 132,000 40,1902028 114,125 13,220 127,345 12,045 18,045 30,090 4,340 11,305 15,645 31,850 4,170 5,150 214,250 131,685 41,3952029 113,895 13,155 127,050 12,375 18,665 31,040 4,405 11,600 16,005 32,275 4,315 5,155 215,840 131,455 42,6402030 113,740 13,090 126,830 12,725 19,310 32,035 4,470 11,900 16,370 32,715 4,445 5,165 217,560 131,300 43,9352031 113,660 13,030 126,690 13,110 19,970 33,080 4,540 12,205 16,745 33,145 4,565 5,175 219,400 131,230 45,2852032 113,675 12,985 126,660 13,515 20,645 34,160 4,610 12,510 17,120 33,575 4,680 5,185 221,380 131,270 46,6702033 113,780 12,935 126,715 13,930 21,340 35,270 4,680 12,825 17,505 34,010 4,780 5,190 223,470 131,395 48,0952034 113,975 12,890 126,865 14,370 22,050 36,420 4,750 13,145 17,895 34,440 4,880 5,200 225,700 131,615 49,565Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.4% -3.0% -1.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 1.7% N/A -2.2% -0.5% -1.6% 4.1%2013-14 -0.8% -0.4% -0.7% -0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.3% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.7% 1.3%2013-23 -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% 0.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.5% 3.0% 1.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.3% -0.5% 2.1%2013-34 -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% 1.6% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.5% -0.3% 2.6%* Source: 2000-2010, 2012, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

120 

 

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

CALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL YEAR ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINESHistorical

2000 18,089 3,400 21,489 1,986 2,755 4,741 530 1,661 2,191 1,307 NA 374 30,102 22,019 6,4022006 13,976 2,550 16,525 2,162 4,077 6,240 918 2,528 3,446 1,218 66 211 27,705 17,443 8,7672007 13,571 2,686 16,257 2,661 3,938 6,600 704 2,541 3,245 1,275 260 215 27,852 16,962 9,1412008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,5272009 11,730 1,903 13,634 2,215 3,161 5,376 755 2,248 3,003 1,286 286 178 23,763 14,389 7,6242010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,3112011 11,844 1,782 13,626 2,463 3,407 5,870 757 2,654 3,411 1,203 278 181 24,570 14,383 8,5242012 11,442 1,766 13,207 2,733 3,418 6,151 731 2,723 3,454 1,243 169 180 24,404 13,938 8,8742013E 11,050 1,756 12,806 2,759 3,387 6,146 748 2,725 3,473 1,191 180 181 23,978 13,554 8,872Forecast2014 10,806 1,714 12,521 2,784 3,571 6,355 765 2,804 3,569 1,237 193 182 24,057 13,285 9,1592015 10,556 1,677 12,233 2,809 3,744 6,553 782 2,884 3,666 1,287 206 183 24,130 13,015 9,4372016 10,340 1,652 11,992 2,828 3,927 6,755 799 2,987 3,786 1,343 221 185 24,282 12,791 9,7422017 10,155 1,630 11,785 2,852 4,123 6,975 816 3,103 3,919 1,405 239 186 24,509 12,602 10,0782018 10,010 1,609 11,618 2,872 4,317 7,189 834 3,220 4,054 1,454 254 187 24,756 12,452 10,4092019 9,886 1,590 11,476 2,897 4,521 7,418 850 3,335 4,184 1,489 268 189 25,023 12,325 10,7522020 9,783 1,577 11,360 2,924 4,738 7,661 866 3,455 4,320 1,526 282 190 25,338 12,225 11,1162021 9,691 1,564 11,255 2,953 4,952 7,905 882 3,575 4,457 1,563 295 191 25,667 12,137 11,4812022 9,629 1,554 11,183 2,992 5,172 8,163 898 3,695 4,592 1,600 309 192 26,040 12,080 11,8582023 9,593 1,548 11,141 3,032 5,391 8,423 913 3,801 4,714 1,636 325 194 26,432 12,054 12,2242024 9,557 1,542 11,099 3,080 5,609 8,689 927 3,906 4,833 1,672 343 195 26,831 12,026 12,5952025 9,532 1,540 11,072 3,141 5,838 8,979 943 4,012 4,955 1,709 360 196 27,271 12,014 12,9922026 9,518 1,539 11,057 3,211 6,069 9,280 957 4,120 5,077 1,743 377 198 27,732 12,015 13,3992027 9,516 1,536 11,052 3,290 6,303 9,594 974 4,229 5,203 1,778 395 199 28,220 12,025 13,8232028 9,521 1,529 11,049 3,381 6,542 9,923 990 4,343 5,332 1,812 413 200 28,731 12,039 14,2662029 9,532 1,530 11,063 3,479 6,785 10,264 1,005 4,458 5,463 1,847 432 202 29,270 12,068 14,7212030 9,547 1,530 11,076 3,582 7,029 10,611 1,021 4,577 5,598 1,882 449 203 29,819 12,098 15,1882031 9,578 1,538 11,116 3,688 7,275 10,963 1,038 4,703 5,741 1,917 466 204 30,408 12,154 15,6662032 9,619 1,554 11,174 3,800 7,512 11,313 1,055 4,831 5,886 1,952 482 206 31,013 12,229 16,1442033 9,679 1,572 11,250 3,920 7,751 11,671 1,072 4,976 6,048 1,987 498 207 31,661 12,323 16,6462034 9,768 1,594 11,361 4,041 8,005 12,046 1,090 5,123 6,213 2,023 513 208 32,365 12,451 17,169Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -3.7% -5.0% -3.9% 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% -0.7% N/A -5.4% -1.7% -3.7% 2.5%2013-14 -2.2% -2.4% -2.2% 0.9% 5.4% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.9% 7.0% 0.7% 0.3% -2.0% 3.2%2013-23 -1.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.9% 4.8% 3.2% 2.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.2% 6.1% 0.7% 1.0% -1.2% 3.3%2013-34 -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% 1.8% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.1% 0.7% 1.4% -0.4% 3.2%* Source: 2000-2010, 2012, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

121 

TABLE 30

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER TOTAL LESS RATED DEC. 31 STUDENTS TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY PILOTS AT PILOTS PILOTS1

Historical2000 93,064 340 N/A 251,561 121,858 141,596 7,775 9,387 625,581 483,985 311,9442006 84,866 239 939 219,233 117,610 141,935 10,690 21,597 597,109 455,174 309,3332007 84,339 239 2,031 211,096 115,127 143,953 12,290 21,274 590,349 446,396 309,8652008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,2472009 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,4952010 119,119 2 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,001

2011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,1222012 119,946 218 4,493 188,001 116,400 145,590 15,126 20,802 610,576 464,986 311,9522013E 120,285 238 4,824 180,214 108,206 149,824 15,114 20,381 599,086 449,262 307,120Forecast

2014 120,050 235 5,250 182,500 110,900 150,000 15,210 20,470 604,615 454,615 307,1002015 119,550 235 5,700 183,900 110,950 150,600 15,415 20,560 606,910 456,310 307,8502016 118,950 235 6,100 183,750 111,700 151,200 15,715 20,645 608,295 457,095 308,4002017 118,350 235 6,550 182,950 112,200 151,700 16,105 20,730 608,820 457,120 308,8002018 117,800 235 6,950 182,200 112,450 152,200 16,600 20,805 609,240 457,040 309,2502019 117,300 235 7,400 181,500 112,650 152,600 17,150 20,885 609,720 457,120 309,8502020 116,850 235 7,800 180,950 112,800 153,300 17,750 20,955 610,640 457,340 310,5502021 116,500 230 8,200 180,700 113,050 154,200 18,300 21,030 612,210 458,010 311,3002022 116,200 230 8,650 180,500 113,300 155,100 18,900 21,095 613,975 458,875 312,1502023 116,000 230 9,100 180,450 113,650 155,800 19,500 21,160 615,890 460,090 313,1002024 115,800 230 9,600 180,400 114,050 156,600 20,100 21,225 618,005 461,405 314,0502025 115,650 230 10,050 180,450 114,550 157,600 20,750 21,285 620,565 462,965 315,1002026 115,550 225 10,550 180,550 115,100 158,500 21,400 21,340 623,215 464,715 316,1502027 115,500 225 11,050 180,700 115,800 159,400 22,050 21,395 626,120 466,720 317,2502028 115,500 225 11,550 180,850 116,500 160,300 22,700 21,445 629,070 468,770 318,3502029 115,500 225 12,100 181,050 117,300 161,400 23,350 21,495 632,420 471,020 319,5002030 115,550 225 12,650 181,250 118,100 162,600 24,000 21,540 635,915 473,315 320,7002031 115,600 225 13,250 181,450 119,000 163,700 24,700 21,585 639,510 475,810 321,8502032 115,700 225 13,850 181,700 119,950 164,900 25,400 21,620 643,345 478,445 323,0002033 115,850 225 14,500 182,050 120,950 166,000 26,100 21,660 647,335 481,335 324,2002034 116,050 225 15,200 182,450 122,000 167,200 26,800 21,700 651,625 484,425 325,400Avg Annual Growth2000-13 2.0% -2.7% N/A -2.5% -0.9% 0.4% 5.2% 6.1% -0.3% -0.6% -0.1%2013-14 -0.2% -1.3% 8.8% 1.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%2013-23 -0.4% -0.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%2013-34 -0.2% -0.3% 5.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. 

 This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

122 

TABLE 31

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON EXPERICALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO- ROTORCRAFT MENTAL**/ JET

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER SPORT** AVGAS FUEL TOTALHistorical

2000 200.8 108.4 176.3 736.7 8.4 59.0 15.2 NA 332.8 972.0 1,304.82006 164.9 79.9 190.1 1,303.9 16.7 148.6 21.6 0.3 283.4 1,642.6 1,926.02007 157.6 83.0 205.2 1,148.0 9.3 132.4 22.6 1.2 273.6 1,485.6 1,759.22008 143.0 69.5 230.4 1,313.2 10.7 162.1 23.3 1.5 248.1 1,705.7 1,953.82009 132.3 57.1 208.7 1,104.6 10.7 133.6 25.8 1.4 227.4 1,447.0 1,674.42010 133.1 53.9 187.1 1,122.9 10.7 124.8 21.6 1.5 220.7 1,434.8 1,655.62011E 129.9 52.9 195.3 1,124.6 10.3 136.4 21.5 1.4 216.0 1,456.3 1,672.32012 125.8 53.9 208.8 1,077.2 10.2 148.9 15.7 0.8 206.4 1,434.9 1,641.32013E 121.5 53.6 208.2 1,056.6 10.5 148.6 15.9 0.9 202.4 1,413.4 1,615.8Forecast2014 118.8 52.6 209.0 1,108.4 10.7 152.2 16.9 1.0 200.0 1,469.5 1,669.52015 115.8 51.4 208.7 1,156.4 10.9 155.7 17.6 1.0 196.8 1,520.8 1,717.62016 113.5 50.6 209.1 1,206.7 11.2 159.7 18.2 1.1 194.5 1,575.5 1,770.12017 111.3 49.9 209.8 1,260.7 11.4 165.0 19.0 1.2 192.8 1,635.6 1,828.32018 109.7 49.2 210.2 1,313.4 11.6 170.4 19.6 1.3 191.4 1,694.0 1,885.52019 108.4 48.6 212.1 1,368.5 11.8 176.5 20.0 1.3 190.2 1,757.0 1,947.32020 107.0 48.2 213.0 1,427.0 12.1 182.8 20.5 1.4 189.2 1,822.7 2,012.02021 106.0 47.7 214.1 1,476.5 12.2 187.3 20.7 1.4 188.1 1,877.9 2,066.02022 105.1 47.4 215.8 1,526.7 12.5 192.6 21.2 1.5 187.6 1,935.0 2,122.62023 104.7 47.2 217.6 1,575.4 12.7 197.2 21.6 1.6 187.8 1,990.1 2,177.92024 104.3 47.0 221.0 1,622.8 12.9 201.6 22.1 1.7 188.0 2,045.4 2,233.42025 103.9 46.7 224.2 1,672.3 13.1 207.1 22.5 1.8 188.0 2,103.6 2,291.62026 103.4 46.7 226.9 1,721.0 13.2 210.5 22.7 1.8 187.9 2,158.4 2,346.32027 103.1 46.6 231.9 1,769.5 13.4 215.0 23.1 1.9 188.2 2,216.4 2,404.62028 102.8 46.2 238.0 1,818.3 13.7 219.7 23.5 2.0 188.2 2,276.0 2,464.22029 102.6 46.2 243.7 1,866.9 13.9 225.5 24.0 2.1 188.8 2,336.0 2,524.82030 102.5 46.2 250.2 1,914.6 14.1 229.2 24.4 2.2 189.3 2,393.9 2,583.32031 102.4 46.4 256.8 1,961.9 14.3 235.5 24.8 2.3 190.3 2,454.2 2,644.52032 102.4 46.9 263.8 2,005.6 14.6 241.9 25.2 2.3 191.5 2,511.4 2,702.92033 102.5 47.5 270.7 2,048.6 14.8 249.2 25.7 2.4 192.9 2,568.5 2,761.42034 103.0 48.1 277.7 2,094.6 15.0 256.6 26.1 2.5 194.7 2,628.9 2,823.6Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -3.8% -5.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.7% 7.4% 0.3% N/A -3.8% 2.9% 1.7%2013-14 -2.2% -1.9% 0.4% 4.9% 2.0% 2.4% 6.5% 7.0% -1.2% 4.0% 3.3%2013-23 -1.5% -1.3% 0.4% 4.1% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1% 5.9% -0.7% 3.5% 3.0%2013-34 -0.8% -0.5% 1.4% 3.3% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 5.0% -0.2% 3.0% 2.7%*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED TURBINE

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

123 

TABLE 32

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERSYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACTHistorical2000 15,158.7 10,760.5 22,844.1 17,034.4 39,878.5 1,439.8 1,448.2 2,888.0 68,685.7 266 1922006 13,256.3 11,967.6 18,707.1 14,365.4 33,072.5 1,358.4 1,417.3 2,775.7 61,072.1 263 2312007 13,611.2 11,667.3 18,575.2 14,556.8 33,132.0 1,313.9 1,405.7 2,719.5 61,130.0 264 2352008 13,780.1 11,032.1 17,492.7 14,081.2 31,573.8 1,285.0 1,245.6 2,530.6 58,916.6 264 2392009 12,836.4 9,520.8 15,571.1 12,448.0 28,019.0 1,305.2 1,280.4 2,585.5 52,961.7 264 2442010 12,657.6 9,410.4 14,863.9 11,716.3 26,580.1 1,309.0 1,297.9 2,606.9 51,255.0 264 2442011 12,866.0 9,278.5 14,527.9 11,437.0 25,964.9 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,739.8 264 2482012 12,872.9 8,994.4 14,521.7 11,608.3 26,130.0 1,308.9 1,269.9 2,578.8 50,576.0 264 2502013E 12,776.0 8,803.6 14,119.0 11,690.0 25,808.9 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 49,940.7 264 252Forecast2014 12,951.3 8,668.2 14,172.4 12,001.5 26,173.8 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 50,345.5 264 2522015 13,298.6 8,767.9 14,237.4 12,052.2 26,289.6 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.2 50,908.2 264 2522016 13,625.9 8,878.2 14,303.0 12,103.4 26,406.3 1,275.3 1,276.9 2,552.1 51,462.6 264 2522017 13,978.7 8,988.7 14,369.1 12,155.0 26,524.1 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 52,043.6 264 2522018 14,339.3 9,102.9 14,435.9 12,207.1 26,643.0 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 52,637.2 264 2522019 14,711.2 9,209.0 14,503.2 12,259.6 26,762.9 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 53,235.2 264 2522020 15,079.5 9,298.3 14,571.2 12,312.7 26,883.9 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 53,813.7 264 2522021 15,421.8 9,357.9 14,639.8 12,366.2 27,006.0 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.1 54,337.8 264 2522022 15,808.2 9,366.6 14,709.0 12,420.2 27,129.2 1,275.2 1,276.9 2,552.0 54,856.1 264 2522023 16,266.7 9,317.4 14,778.8 12,474.7 27,253.5 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 55,389.7 264 2522024 16,762.2 9,256.5 14,849.3 12,529.7 27,379.0 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 55,949.8 264 2522025 17,313.1 9,145.1 14,920.4 12,585.2 27,505.6 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 56,515.9 264 2522026 17,881.0 9,015.7 14,992.2 12,641.2 27,633.4 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 57,082.1 264 2522027 18,558.2 8,788.1 15,064.7 12,697.7 27,762.4 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 57,660.7 264 2522028 19,282.9 8,526.7 15,137.8 12,754.8 27,892.6 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,552.0 58,254.2 264 2522029 19,927.1 8,353.8 15,211.6 12,812.3 28,024.0 1,275.1 1,276.9 2,551.9 58,856.8 264 2522030 20,564.1 8,208.0 15,286.1 12,870.5 28,156.6 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 59,480.6 264 2522031 20,996.0 8,253.5 15,361.4 12,929.1 28,290.5 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 60,091.8 264 2522032 21,369.8 8,358.9 15,437.3 12,988.3 28,425.6 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 60,706.2 264 2522033 21,742.4 8,465.5 15,513.9 13,048.1 28,562.0 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 61,321.8 264 2522034 22,110.4 8,570.3 15,591.3 13,108.4 28,699.8 1,275.0 1,276.9 2,551.9 61,932.4 264 252Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.3% -1.5% -3.6% -2.9% -3.3% -0.9% -1.0% -0.9% -2.4%2013-14 1.4% -1.5% 0.4% 2.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%2013-23 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%2013-34 2.6% -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

124 

TABLE 33

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical2000 16,395.0 11,197.7 20,799.2 3,466.9 51,858.82006 13,963.3 12,035.7 17,005.3 2,669.9 45,674.22007 14,366.0 11,675.8 16,747.4 2,498.7 45,288.02008 14,443.0 11,048.3 15,763.0 2,399.5 43,653.82009 13,302.3 9,622.8 14,151.1 2,398.8 39,474.92010 13,174.3 9,511.3 13,863.6 2,437.5 38,986.72011 13,068.0 9,349.4 13,503.1 2,374.6 38,295.22012 13,045.1 8,977.0 13,423.6 2,332.2 37,778.02013E 12,913.6 8,797.5 13,047.7 2,225.2 36,983.9Forecast2014 13,089.0 8,645.3 13,026.9 2,225.1 36,986.42015 13,437.3 8,748.2 13,119.7 2,225.1 37,530.22016 13,765.3 8,861.8 13,212.1 2,225.0 38,064.22017 14,119.0 8,976.2 13,307.3 2,225.0 38,627.52018 14,481.0 9,094.9 13,404.0 2,225.0 39,204.92019 14,854.4 9,205.0 13,501.5 2,224.9 39,785.92020 15,223.8 9,296.1 13,597.5 2,224.9 40,342.32021 15,566.8 9,353.9 13,688.9 2,224.8 40,834.52022 15,953.7 9,356.4 13,779.9 2,224.8 41,314.82023 16,413.2 9,296.5 13,872.3 2,224.8 41,806.82024 16,909.7 9,224.2 13,967.3 2,224.7 42,326.02025 17,461.4 9,097.1 14,062.9 2,224.7 42,846.12026 18,029.8 8,950.7 14,158.9 2,224.6 43,364.02027 18,707.4 8,698.1 14,255.6 2,224.6 43,885.72028 19,432.4 8,408.8 14,353.8 2,224.6 44,419.62029 20,077.2 8,215.2 14,453.9 2,224.5 44,970.82030 20,715.0 8,051.4 14,556.4 2,224.5 45,547.32031 21,148.2 8,093.9 14,659.8 2,224.4 46,126.32032 21,523.6 8,200.8 14,764.3 2,224.4 46,713.02033 21,897.9 8,308.6 14,869.3 2,224.4 47,300.12034 22,267.6 8,414.0 14,974.4 2,224.3 47,880.3Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -1.8% -1.8% -3.5% -3.4% -2.6%2013-14 1.4% -1.7% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0%2013-23 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2%2013-34 2.6% -0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2014-2034 

125 

TABLE 34

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERALYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTALHistorical

2000 24,987.0 8,100.9 8,744.3 4,192.5 46,024.82006 24,394.5 9,436.7 8,197.0 4,149.7 46,177.82007 25,006.2 9,652.9 8,294.3 3,803.3 46,756.72008 23,895.3 10,179.0 7,670.7 3,649.2 45,394.12009 22,406.8 8,561.8 6,331.8 2,993.0 40,293.52010 22,341.5 8,623.8 6,550.3 2,982.2 40,497.82011 23,431.7 9,010.4 6,557.3 2,227.6 41,227.12012 23,650.9 8,932.1 6,472.1 1,859.9 40,915.12013E 23,181.1 8,672.7 6,439.1 1,675.6 39,968.5Forecast2014 23,583.8 8,561.0 6,397.3 1,675.6 40,217.82015 24,221.5 8,571.7 6,443.5 1,675.6 40,912.32016 24,905.0 8,597.4 6,481.8 1,675.6 41,659.82017 25,602.0 8,636.0 6,535.6 1,675.6 42,449.22018 26,308.3 8,705.3 6,591.2 1,675.6 43,280.42019 27,021.6 8,777.8 6,650.7 1,675.6 44,125.72020 27,718.7 8,853.4 6,705.7 1,675.6 44,953.42021 28,364.9 8,921.4 6,749.8 1,675.6 45,711.72022 29,000.0 8,991.2 6,790.7 1,675.6 46,457.62023 29,642.4 9,066.0 6,832.3 1,675.6 47,216.42024 30,308.5 9,145.1 6,877.5 1,675.6 48,006.72025 30,973.2 9,228.0 6,922.9 1,675.6 48,799.72026 31,618.4 9,328.7 6,967.2 1,675.6 49,589.92027 32,257.9 9,440.4 7,013.8 1,675.6 50,387.72028 32,909.4 9,552.9 7,062.1 1,675.6 51,199.92029 33,578.6 9,667.6 7,113.0 1,675.6 52,034.92030 34,268.7 9,788.6 7,169.5 1,675.6 52,902.42031 34,959.1 9,916.9 7,225.4 1,675.6 53,777.02032 35,659.7 10,045.7 7,284.6 1,675.6 54,665.72033 36,362.1 10,177.2 7,344.4 1,675.6 55,559.32034 37,062.2 10,305.6 7,403.0 1,675.6 56,446.4Avg Annual Growth2000-13 -0.6% 0.5% -2.3% -6.8% -1.1%2013-14 1.7% -1.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.6%2013-23 2.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7%2013-34 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 1.7%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS