Table of Contents

Forecast Highlights (2017–2037) ................................................................................................1

Review of 2016 ...........................................................................................................................3

Glossary of Acronyms.................................................................................................................4

Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts ..........................................................................................................6

Economic Environment........................................................................................................... 7

U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9

Domestic Market................................................................................................................. 9

International Market ...........................................................................................................15

Cargo.................................................................................................................................19

General Aviation....................................................................................................................21

FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................26

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30

Commercial Small UAS Forecast.......................................................................................31

Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................33

Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................35

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................39

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................39

Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................43

Enplanements....................................................................................................................43

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................44

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................44

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................45

Yield ..................................................................................................................................46

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy .......................................................................................51

Appendix C: Forecast Tables...................................................................................................53
1

Forecast Highlights (2017–2037)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. 

commercial air carrier industry has been 

characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The 

volatility that was associated with these cycles was thought by many to be a structural 

feature of an industry that was capital intensive but cash poor. However the great recession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental 

change in the operations and finances of 

U.S Airlines. Since the recession, U.S. airlines have fine-tuned their business models 

to minimize losses by lowering operating 

costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and 

grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. 

To increase operating revenues, carriers 

initiated new services that customers were 

willing to purchase and started charging 

separately for services that were historically 

bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry 

experienced an unprecedented period of 

consolidation with three major mergers in 

five years. These changes along with capacity discipline exhibited by carriers have 

resulted in a seventh consecutive year of 

profitability for the industry in 2016. Looking 

ahead there is confidence that the industry 

has been transformed from that of a boomto-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

Fundamentally, over the medium and long 

term, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity, and a growing U.S. and 

world economy provides the basis for aviation to grow over the long run. The 2017 

FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 1.9 percent per year, slightly slower

than last year’s forecast. The sharp decline 

in the price of oil in 2015-16 was a catalyst 

for an uptick in passenger growth in 2016

that will continue into 2017. The price of oil

is projected to rise from around $39 per barrel in 2016 to $47 in 2017, and our forecast 

assumes that it will rise thereafter to exceed 

$100 by 2026 and approach $132 by the 

end of the forecast period. There are a 

number of headwinds that are buffeting the 

global economy – uncertainty surrounding 

“Brexit”, recession in Russia and Brazil and 

inconsistent performance in other emerging 

economies, a “hard landing” in China, and 

lack of further stimulus in the advanced 

economies. Although the U.S. economy 

has managed to avoid a recession, there is 

uncertainty regarding the impact of the new 

U.S. administration’s policies on economic 

growth.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles 

(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.4 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.0 percent a year while International RPMs are 

forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.4

percent a year. U.S. carrier system capacity measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is 

forecast to grow in line with the increases in 

demand. The number of seats per aircraft 

is getting bigger, especially in the regional 

jet market, where we expect the number of 

50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful 

by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. and global economy continued post disappointing growth in 2016, a 

combination of robust demand and continued low energy prices resulted in record 

profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profitability may fall in the near term as rising energy prices and higher labor costs offset 

higher revenues fed by solid demand. Over 

the long term, we see a competitive and 
2

profitable aviation industry characterized by 

increasing demand for air travel and airfares 

growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting 

over the long term a growing U.S. and global economy.

The long term outlook for general aviation is 

stable to optimistic, as growth at the high 

end offsets continuing retirements at the 

traditional low end of the segment. The active general aviation fleet is forecast to increase 0.1 percent a year between 2016 

and 2037, resulting in an increase in the 

fleet of about 3,400 units. While steady 

growth in both GDP and corporate profits 

results in continued growth of the turbine 

and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of 

the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft continues to shrink over the forecast. Although 

fleet growth is minimal, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 0.9 percent per year 

through 2037, as growth in turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than 

offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and 

business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased activity growth which has the potential to increase controller workload. Operations at FAA and contract towers are 

forecast to increase 0.8 percent a year over 

the forecast period with commercial activity 

growing at five times the rate of noncommercial activity. The growth in U.S. airline and business aviation activity is the 

primary driver. Large and medium hubs will 

see much faster increases than small and 

non-hub airports, largely due to the commercial nature of their operations.
3

Review of 2016

Despite slow economic growth at home and 

abroad, 2016 was a pretty good year for 

U.S. aviation. A combination of robust domestic traffic and falling costs offset a decline in revenue caused by lower yields resulting in record profits for the U.S. airline 

industry. The shift in focus from market 

share to boosting returns on invested capital 

has resulted in something the industry has 

rarely seen – sustained profitability. The 

U.S. airline industry has become more nimble in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses. U.S. airlines continue to refine strategies for developing additional revenue streams such as charging 

fees for services that used to be included in 

airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for 

charging for services that were not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and 

fare lock fees). The impact from these initiatives is evident as the industry (passenger 

and cargo carriers combined) posted profits 

for the seventh consecutive year in 2016, 

despite falling yields. 

Demand for air travel in 2016 grew at the 

fastest pace since 2005 despite modest 

economic growth in the U.S. In 2016 system revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 4.3 percent while enplanements 

grew 4.2 percent. Domestic RPMs were up 

5.5 percent while enplanements were up by 

4.3 percent. International RPMs increased 

by just 1.5 percent despite enplanements

growing by 3.6 percent. The system-wide 

load factor rose 0.2 points to 83.5 percent. 

Yields fell for the second consecutive year. 

In domestic markets, falling oil prices and 

rapid expansion by ultra-low cost carriers 

such as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 4.7 percent decline. International yield fell 9.0 percent, impacted by weak demand and currency fluctuations. Despite falling yields 

U.S. airlines posted record profits in FY 

2016 as energy prices continued to decline, 

allowing profits at lower prices. Data for FY 

2016 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of 

$26.6 billion (compared to a $24.1 billion 

operating profit for FY 2015). The network 

carriers reported combined operating profits 

of $19.1 billion while the low cost carriers 

reported combined operating profits of $6.7 

billion as all carriers posted profits.

The general aviation industry recorded a 

small decline in deliveries in 2016, with only 

the business jet segment seeing a year over 

year increase. Overall deliveries were down

by 4.2 percent in calendar year (CY) 2016; 

and U.S. billings decreased 11.7 percent to 

$10.6 billion. General aviation activity at 

FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 

0.2 percent decline in 2016 as local activity 

fell 0.5 percent, more than offsetting a 0.1 

percent increase in itinerant operations.

In 2016 total operations at all 517 FAA and 

contract towers rose for the second consecutive year, up 0.5 percent, compared to 

2015. This marks the first time since FY 

1999-2000 that operations at FAA and 

funded towers have increased for two consecutive years. Air carrier activity increased 

by 4.8 percent, more than offsetting declines in the air taxi, general aviation, and 

military categories. Activity at large hubs 

rose by 1.6 percent, while medium hub activity increased by 2.8 percent. Small/nonhub airport activity was down 0.4 percent in 

2016 compared to the prior year.
4

Glossary of Acronyms

Acronym Term

ASMs Available Seat Miles

ATP Air Transport Pilot

AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International

BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

CY Calendar Year

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FY Fiscal Year

GA General Aviation

GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

LSA Light Sport Aircraft

NAS National Airspace System

NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking

PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure

RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost

RP Remote Pilot

RPA Remote Pilot Authorization

RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles

RTMs Revenue Ton Miles

sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control

TRB Transportation Research Board

UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s)

USD United States Dollar

VFR Visual Flight Rules
5

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number

Economic Environment Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Li Ding (202) 267-1846

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

• Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

• Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 

APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical 

publications http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov
6

FAA Aerospace Forecasts 

Fiscal Years 2017-2037
7

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects 

that world economic growth will pick up from 

its 2016 low of 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent in 

2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018. Growth is 

forecast to accelerate in the United States 

as the new U.S. administration puts a stimulus package in place while Europe remains 

sluggish as the impact from Brexit and political uncertainty hamper growth. Japan’s 

economic growth is projected to be slow 

and steady, helped by a weaker yen. In 

emerging markets, China’s growth continues to slow while others such as Brazil and 

Russia return to positive growth and see an 

acceleration helped by rising commodity 

prices and increased demand for exports. In 

2016 real GDP in India grew 6.9%, down 

from 7.5% in 2015, but is projected in 2017-

18 to return to levels close to the 2015 rate. 

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP 

to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2017

and 2037. Emerging markets are forecast 

to grow above the global average but at 

lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia 

(excluding Japan), led by India and China, 

is projected to have the fastest growth followed by Middle East and Africa, Latin 

America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in 

the more mature economies will be lower 

than the global trend with the fastest rates in 

the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Japan is projected to be very slow with rates 

below 1% a year reflecting deep structural 

issues associated with a shrinking and aging population.

6.9 6.7

1.7 1.6

1.0

-0.6

-3.6

2.4

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Annual Percent Change

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2016

India China Eurozone U.S. Japan Russia Brazil World

Source: IHS Global Insight
8

Oil prices fell by 31% in 2016 to around $39

per barrel bringing the cumulative decline 

between 2013 and 2016 to 61%. However 

2016 marks the bottom of the latest cycle 

and IHS Global Insight is projecting oil prices in 2017 to increase by about 20% to $47

per barrel. Over the long run, oil prices are 

projected to increase due to growing demand and higher costs of extraction. IHS 

Global Insight forecasts the price of oil to 

reach $101 per barrel by 2026 and continue 

to rise modestly thereafter to $131 by 2037.

0.8

1.4

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.6

4.9

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

World

Latin America

Asia ex China

M.E. & Africa

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2016 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2017-2037

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

$ Per Barrel of Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
9

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, 

although regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in 

Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. 

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) industry 

consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to external shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues.

The restructuring and consolidation of the 

U.S. airline industry that began in the aftermath of the 2007-09 recession continued in 

2016. In October 2015, the last U.S. Airways flight occurred marking the finalization 

of the American/US Airways merger and in 

April 2016, Alaska Airlines announced its 

intention to merge with Virgin America to 

create the nation’s 5th largest airline. As a 

result, there are now six airlines in the U.S. 

– American, Delta, Southwest, United, Alaska/Virgin, and Jet Blue – controlling approximately 85% of the domestic market as 

measured by revenue passenger miles. 

 

1 Mainline carriers are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more 

seats. Regionals are defined as those providing 

service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats 

and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the 

mainline carriers.

Further consolidation is unlikely. In 2005 

there were twelve major mainline airlines.

2

The mergers and increasing market presence of low cost carriers like Frontier, JetBlue and Southwest have had clear implications on the fares, size of the aircraft being 

used and the load factors, topics that will be 

discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unprecedented period of capacity discipline, especially in 

domestic markets. Between 1978 and 

2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased 

at an average annual rate of 4 percent a 

year, recording only two years of decline. 

Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 

percent in FY 2002, following the events of 

September 11, 2001, growth resumed and 

by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent 

above the FY 2000 level. Since 2009, U.S. 

domestic ASMs have increased at an average rate of 2.0% per year. U.S. domestic 

ASMs are up just 4.1 percent when compared to 2007 as the industry responded 

first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% 

between 2004 and 2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present). 

The period of domestic capacity restraint 

since 2007 has not been shared equally be-

 

2 A major carrier is defined as an air carrier with 

annual operating revenues exceeding $1 billion
10

tween the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. In 2016, the mainline 

carrier group provided 5 percent more capacity than it did in 2007 while carrying 8

percent more passengers. Capacity flown 

by the regional group has shrunk by 2.6

percent over the same period (with passengers carried down 3 percent). 

The regional market has continued to shrink 

as the regionals compete for even fewer 

contracts with the remaining dominant carriers; this has meant slow growth in enplanements and yields.

575 589 639 676 721 770 825

152 152

165 175

186

198

212

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

 1,200

2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Enplanements (millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional
11

The regionals have less leverage with the 

mainline carriers than they have had in the 

past as the mainline carriers have negotiated contracts that are more favorable for 

their operational and financial bottom lines. 

Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing 

pilot shortages and tighter regulations regarding pilot training. Their labor costs are 

increasing as they raise wages to combat 

the pilot shortage while their capital costs 

have increased in the short-term as they 

continue to replace their 50 seat regional 

jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. 

The move to the larger aircraft will prove 

beneficial in the future, however, since their 

unit costs are lower.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary 

revenues. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. 

This includes the un-bundling of services 

previously included in the ticket price such 

as checked bags and on-board meals, and 

by adding new services such as boarding 

priority and internet access. As noted earlier, U.S. passenger carriers posted record

net profits for the seventh consecutive year 

in 2016 with ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome as well 

as very low oil prices. Airlines are also 

moving ahead with plans to further segment 

their passengers into more discreet cost 

categories based on comfort amenities like

seat pitch, leg room, and access to social 

media and outlets. Delta introduced “Basic 

Economy” fares in 2015 and expanded the 

number of markets throughout 2016. United 

14.0 14.0

15.6

17.3

18.7

20.1

21.6

11.4 11.5

12.8

14.2

15.4

16.5

17.7

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

 20.0

 25.0

2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Revenue Per Mile (¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals
12

introduced its version of Basic Economy 

fares in November 2016 and American is 

planning to introduce its version in the first 

quarter of calendar year 2017. 

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of 

domestic departures rose in 2016 for the 

first time since 2007, but still remain 17.3 

percent below the 2007 level. ASMs, RPMs 

and enplanements all showed a rebound;

these trends underlie the expanding size of 

aircraft and higher load factors.3

 In 2016, 

the domestic load factor reached a historic 

high of 84.7 percent for commercial air carriers. It is presently assumed that the load 

factor will not exceed 86.5 percent in the 

future due to the logistical difficulties inherent in matching supply perfectly with demand.

 

3 Commercial air carriers encompass both mainline and regional carriers.
13

System, that is, the sum of domestic plus 

international capacity, increased 4.2 percent 

to 1.112 trillion ASMs in 2016 while RPMs 

increased 4.3 percent to 928 billion. During 

the same period system-wide enplanements 

increased 4.2 percent to 819.6 million. In

2016, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize 

the domestic over the international market 

in terms of allocating capacity as domestic 

capacity increased 5.3 percent while international capacity was up just 1.6 percent. 

U.S. carriers domestic capacity growth will 

exceed their international capacity growth in 

2017 but carriers will start expanding capacity in international markets faster than domestic markets beginning in 2018 and this 

trend is projected to continue through 2037

as the domestic market continues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in 

the combined domestic and international 

market was 5.4 percent in 2016 while regional carriers carried 0.6 percent fewer 

passengers. 

In the domestic market, mainline enplanements increased for the sixth consecutive 

year, up 5.8 percent, marking the first time 

since 2000 that the industry recorded six 

consecutive years of passenger growth in 

the domestic market. Mainline passengers 

in international markets posted a seventh

year of growth, up 3.1 percent. 

With relatively robust demand, industry capacity growth was up 4.2 percent after a 3.9

percent increase in 2015. Solid increases in 

passenger volume and traffic offset lower 

yields and along with higher ancillary reve-

 84.0

 84.5

 85.0

 85.5

 86.0

 86.5

 87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Load Factor

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor
14

nues and falling fuel prices resulted in U.S. 

carriers finishing up 2016 with record profits.

System load factor increased 0.1 points 

while trip length increased 1.2 miles (0.1

percent) in 2016, even as seats per aircraft 

mile increased by 1.6 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using larger aircraft. 

Seats per aircraft mile system wide increased to 151.3 seats (up 2.3 seats per 

aircraft mile), the highest level since 1992.
15

International Market

Over the past decade, the international 

market has been the growth segment for 

U.S. carriers when compared to the mature 

U.S. domestic market. Since 2015 growth 

in the domestic market has outpaced international markets and 2017 is expected to 

follow suit as airlines continue to focus on 

the domestic market. Starting in 2018 the 

international market (comprised of mainline 

and regional carriers) should again start 

outpacing the domestic market in terms of 

enplanements, RPMs and ASMs at average 

annual rates (FY 2018-2037) of 3.4, 3.3, 

and 3.3 percent, respectively.

The weakness in international demand over 

the past few years is mainly due to weak 

worldwide economic growth. The near term 

outlook remains uncertain as oil prices are 

moving up, the impact of Brexit is unclear, 

growth in world trade is still weaker than 

before the Global Financial Crisis, and security concerns continue to loom over the 

world as a threat to international tourism.

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market
16

The next five years will feature a rebuilding 

of international demand by the U.S. carriers 

with moderate growth averaging around 3.5, 

3.5, and 3.4 percent a year for enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs respectively. Airlines will exercise capacity restraint and the 

load factor is expected to stabilize around 

81.3%. Load factors this high were last 

seen in 2014. 

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

 (10.0)

 (5.0)

 -

 5.0

 10.0

 15.0

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Annual Growth Rate (%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International
17

For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the 

largest international destination despite the 

recent economic and political crises of Brazil. Enplanements in 2016 grew an estimated 5.9% while RPMs increased 4.7%. 

Growth is projected to slow in 2017 as U.S.

carriers trim capacity growth to help stabilize yields. Enplanements and RPMs are 

forecast to increase 1.6 and 1.2 percent, 

respectively, in 2017. Over the twenty year

period 2017-2037, Latin America enplanements are forecast to increase at an average rate of 4.1% a year while RPMs grow 

4.4% a year. 

Despite the economic growth and potential 

of air travel to China and India, the Pacific 

region remains a relatively small market for 

the U.S. and will remain so for the next 

twenty years. In 2016, U.S. carriers saw enplanements increase 0.6% over their 2015 

levels while traffic (RPMs) increased by 2.5 

percent. Between 2017 and 2037, U.S. carrier enplanements and RPMs are forecast to 

grow 2.5 and 2.6 percent a year, respectively. 

In 2016, the Atlantic region saw a drop in 

enplanements of 1.0% while RPMs fell 2.1% 

as concerns about Brexit and a weak European economy kept demand in check. U.S. 

carriers have dialed back on capacity 

growth in 2017 as demand continues to be 

weak amid uncertainty associated with 

Brexit and European elections. As a result, 

enplanement and RPM growth will hover 

around 0% (-0.3% and 0.1%, respectively). 

The Atlantic is a mature region and over the

twenty year period 2017-2037, enplanements in the Atlantic region (including the 

Middle East and Africa) are forecast to grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.7% a year 

while RPMs grow 3% a year.

 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements
18

Total passengers (including Foreign Flag 

carriers) between the United States and the 

rest of the world increased an estimated 

5.3% in 2016 (218.5 million) as all regions 

posted gains led by an 8.4% increase in the 

Pacific region. 

FAA projects total passenger growth of 

4.7% in 2017 as global economic growth 

accelerates with the highest growth expected in the Latin region. Stable global 

economic growth (2.8% a year) over the 

next 20 years (2017-2037) is the foundation 

for the forecast growth of international passengers of 3.6% a year, as levels more than 

double from 229 million to 467 million. 

The Latin American region is the largest international market and is projected to grow 

at the fastest rate (3.9% a year) of any region over the next 20 years. Within the region, Mexico and Brazil are the two largest 

markets and are expected to remain so over 

the forecast period.

Powered by the economic growth and potential of air travel to China and India, total 

passengers in the Pacific region are forecast to double to 85 million by 2037. From

2017 to 2037, passengers between the 

United States and the Pacific region are 

forecast to grow 3.8 percent a year. 

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are 

more mature markets and are projected to 

have somewhat slower growth than the Latin or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is 

forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.4%

73 77 89 103 117 132 149

79 83 92

108

127

149

177

39 41

48

57

66

76

85

27 28

33

38

43

49

56

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also 

received from Transport Canada

* Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
19

a year as an increasing share of the passengers in this region come from the Middle 

East and Africa markets. The Canadian 

transborder market is the smallest market in 

terms of passenger volumes and is forecast 

to grow 3.5% a year. 

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and 

international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand 

resulting from economic activity. Cargo 

moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft 

and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both 

scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes such as trucks, 

container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.5 billion revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) in 2016, down 0.9 percent 

from 2015 with domestic cargo revenue ton 

miles (RTMs) increasing 1.8 percent to 13.3

billion while international RTMs fell 2.4 percent to 22.2 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown 

by all-cargo carriers comprised 77.6 percent 

of total RTMs in 2016, with passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown 

by the all-cargo carriers decreased 0.4 percent in 2016 while total RTMs flown by passenger carriers declined by 2.6 percent. 

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can 

be divided into four regions consisting of 

Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ In 2016 total international RTMs decreased 2.4 percent to 22.2, with all regions 

posting declines.

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with 

GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo 

growth are fuel price volatility, movement of 

real yields, and globalization. Significant 

structural changes have occurred in the air 

cargo industry; among these are air cargo 

security regulations by the FAA and TSA, 

maturation of the domestic express market, 

a shift from air to other modes (especially 

truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) 

by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, 

and the increased use of mail substitutes 

(e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles 

(RTMs) are based on several assumptions 

specific to the cargo industry. First, security 

restrictions on air cargo transportation will 

remain in place. Second, most of the shift 

from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will 

be tied to economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on 

models that link cargo activity to GDP. 

Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were 

developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo 

RTMs were based on growth in world and 

regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. The 

distribution of RTMs between passenger 

and all-cargo carriers was forecast based 

on an analysis of historic trends in shares, 

changes in industry structure, and market 

assumptions. 

After decreasing by 0.9 percent in 2016, 

total RTMs are forecast to grow 1.4 percent 

in 2017. Driven by steady U.S. and world 

economic growth, total RTMs are projected 

to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1

percent for the balance of the forecast period. 
20

Following a 1.8 percent increase in 2016, 

domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 

1.7 percent in 2017 as the U.S. economic 

recovery continues. Between 2016 and 

2037, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to 

increase at an average annual rate of 1.3

percent. In 2016, all-cargo carriers carried 

89.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The 

all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.5

percent by 2037 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs fell 2.4 percent in 

2016 after posting a 0.9 percent increase in 

2015 as slow growth in the U.S. and Europe 

along with the slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide trade. 

Growth is expected to turn positive in 2017

to 1.3 percent as global trade growth resumes. For the forecast period (2016-37) 

international cargo RTMs are forecast to 

increase an average of 3.8 percent a year 

based on projected growth in world GDP 

with the Pacific region having the fastest 

growth, followed by the Other International, 

Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively. 

The share of international cargo RTMs 

flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 

49.3 percent in 2000 to 70.8 percent in 

2016. Continuing the trend experienced 

over the past decade, the all-cargo share of 

international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 77.1 percent by 2037. 
21

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours 

flown, and utilization rates from the General 

Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA 

Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the

GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new aircraft deliveries, which use the data from 

General Aviation Manufacturers Association 

(GAMA), together with assumptions of retirement rates, produce growth rates of the 

fleet by aircraft categories, which are applied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The 

forecasts are carried out for “active aircraft,”4 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general 

aviation forecasts also rely on discussions 

with the industry experts conducted at industry meetings, including four Transportation 

Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business 

Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees 

conducted annually in May and January.

The results of the 2015 GA Survey, the latest available, were consistent with the results of surveys conducted since 2004 improvements to the survey methodology. 

The GA fleet was in decline between 2007 

and 2013, especially between 2011 and 

2013, primarily due to the impact of the 

2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal 

of Aircraft Registration, which removed cancelled, expired or revoked records from the 

Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its

first increase since 2008, and the 2015 Survey results showed an increase for the second consecutive year. The active GA fleet 

was estimated as 210,031 aircraft in 2015 

 

4 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one 

hour during the year.

(up 2.8 percent from 2014), with 24.1 million 

hours flown (up 3.7 percent from 2014).

In 2016, gradual decline in deliveries of the 

general aviation industry continued from the 

previous year. While the business jet deliveries by U.S. manufacturers continued their 

modest increase by 1.8 percent compared 

to the previous year, turboprop deliveries 

were down by 2.1 percent, single engine 

piston deliveries declined by 7.4 percent, 

and much smaller category of multi-engine 

piston deliveries declined 23.3 percent. 

Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. 

manufacturers of general aviation aircraft 

delivered 1,525 aircraft in CY 2016, 4.2 percent fewer than CY 2015. This was the 

second year of declines since 2011. Overall 

piston deliveries were down 8.3 percent in 

2016. In the turbine categories, total shipments went down by 0.2 percent. 
22

GAMA and industry experts also reported 

continuing decreases in rotorcraft deliveries 

in 2016, particularly resulting from direct 

and indirect effects of oil price declines.

Against these current conditions, the long 

term outlook for general aviation, driven by 

turbine aircraft activity, remains stable to 

favorable. The active general aviation fleet 

is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent over the 21-year 

forecast period, as increases in the turbine, 

experimental, and light sport fleets offset 

declines in the fixed wing piston fleet. The 

total active general aviation fleet increases 

from an estimated 209,905 in 2016 to 

213,420 aircraft by 2037. 

The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is 

projected to grow by 14,700 aircraft -- an 

average rate of 1.9 percent a year over the 

forecast period, with the turbojet fleet increasing 2.3 percent a year. The growth in 

U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts for the growth in the turbine fleet.

The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing 

piston aircraft is predicted to shrink over the 

forecast period by 22,500 aircraft (at an average annual rate of -0.8 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with 

new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with 

retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers 

of the decline.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

 -

 500

 1,000

 1,500

 2,000

 2,500

 3,000

 3,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Shipments Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)
23

On the other hand, the smallest category, 

light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is 

forecast to grow by 4.1 percent annually, 

adding about 3,355 new aircraft by 2037, 

more than doubling its 2015 fleet size.

Although the total active general aviation 

fleet is projected to increase minimally, the 

number of general aviation hours flown is 

forecast to increase an average of 0.9 percent per year through 2037, as the newer 

aircraft fly more hours each year. Fixed 

wing piston hours are forecast to decrease 

by 0.8 percent, the same rate as the fleet 

declines. Countering this trend, hours flown 

by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are 

forecast to increase 2.4 percent yearly over 

the forecast period. Jet aircraft are expected to account for most of the increase, 

with hours flown increasing at an average 

annual rate of 3.0 percent over the forecast 

period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the 

business jet fleet, along with estimated increases in utilization rates. 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
24

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily 

impacted by the previous economic downturn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, 

faces the challenges brought by lower oil 

prices. They impact utilization rates and 

new aircraft orders both directly through decreasing activity in oil exploration, and also 

through associated slowdown in related 

economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are projected to grow by 2.0 percent annually over 

the forecast period. 

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is 

forecasted to see an increase of 4.6 percent 

a year in hours flown, primarily driven by 

growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots 

by certification categories, using the data 

compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center. There were 

584,362 active pilots certificated by FAA at 

the end of 2016. While private and commercial pilot categories kept their declining 

trends, ATP and student pilot certificates 

continued to increase. One regulatory 

change that affected the number of student 

pilot certificates was the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student 

pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 

40 from 36 months to 60 months. Since 

2011, the student pilot numbers have been 

rising and reached 128,501 in 2016. 

Another change in the legislation impacted 

commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) 

certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal 

Aviation Administration Extension Act of 

2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled 

airline) flight crew members would hold an

ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline 

pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate 

and mostly serving at Second in Command 

positions at the regional airlines could no 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown

(in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine

Rotorcraft LSA

Experimental and Other
25

longer operate with only a commercial pilot 

certificate after that date, and the FAA data 

showed a faster decline in commercial pilot 

numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of 

increase in ATP certificates.

The number of active general aviation pilots 

(excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease 

about 7,500 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over 

the forecast period, while the ATP category 

is forecast to increase by 15,500 (up 0.5

percent annually). The student pilots are 

forecast to increase by 0.4 percent and 

much smaller category of sport pilots are 

predicted to increase by 4.1 percent annually over the forecast period. On the other 

hand, both private and commercial pilot certificates are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.7 and 0.6 percent, 

respectively until 2037.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2006 2016 2026 2037

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Students Sport Pilot

Private Pilot Commercial Pilot

Air Transport Pilots Rotorcraft only
26

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the 

business aviation fleet will drive growth in 

operations at FAA facilities over the forecast 

period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers 

is forecast to increase at an average rate of

0.8 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. 

Commercial operations5

 at these facilities 

are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 

5 times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial operations 

is less than the growth in U.S. airline passenger traffic (1.5 percent vs. 1.9 percent)

over the forecast period due primarily to 

larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and 

higher load factors. Both of these trends 

allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more 

passengers without increasing the number 

of flights. General aviation operations 

(which accounted for 51% of operations in 

2016) are forecast to increase an average 

of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine 

powered activity more than offset declines 

in piston activity. 

 

5 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi categories.

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach 

Control) Operations6 are forecast to grow 

slightly faster than at towered facilities. This 

is in part a reflection of the different mix of 

activity at Tracons. Total operations are 

forecast to increase an average of 1.0 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. 

Commercial operations accounted for approximately 59 percent of Tracon operations 

in 2016 and are projected to grow 1.3 percent a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over 

the forecast. 

Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is measured by the number of IFR aircraft handled. 

 

6 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules 

(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in 

the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and 

VFR overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

Operations (000)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower 

Operations

Commercial Non Commercial
27

In 2016, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route 

Centers increased 3.1 percent, led by increases in the Air Carrier and General Aviation categories. Growth in airline traffic and 

business aviation is expected to lead to increases in activity at En-Route centers. 

Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at 

En-Route centers are forecast to increase at 

an average rate of 1.3 percent a year as 

increases in Air Carrier and General Aviation activity offset declines in Air Taxi activity. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast 

to grow faster than activity at towered airports because more of the activity at EnRoute centers is from the faster growing 

commercial sector and high-end (mainly 

turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the 

general aviation activity at towered airports, 

which is growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2007 2017 2027 2037

AC Handled (000)

Fiscal Year

En-Route Center 

Aircraft Handled

Commercial Non Commercial
28

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,039

in 2016 to 8,270 in 2037, an average annual 

growth rate of 0.8 percent a year. Increased 

demand for air travel and growth in air cargo 

is expected to fuel increases in both the 

passenger and cargo fleets. 

Between 2016 and 2037 the number of jets 

in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast 

to grow from 4,073 to 5,199, an average of 

54 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body 

aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including Eseries aircraft at American and JetBlue) is 

projected to grow 37 aircraft a year as carriers replace the 757 fleet and current technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the 

next generation MAX and Neo families. The 

wide-body fleet grows by an average of 17

aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 

787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-

300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. 

passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases 

by 67 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,156 aircraft in 2016 to 2,027 in 

2037 as the fleet shrinks by 14 percent (309

aircraft) between 2016 and 2025. Carriers 

remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older 

small turboprop and piston aircraft, while 

adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 

family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 

50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 

2037, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,828, up from 1,637 in 2016. 

The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to 

shrink by 62% from 519 in 2016 to 199 by 

2037. These aircraft account for just 9.8

percent of the fleet in 2037, down from 24.1

percent in 2016. 

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is 

forecast to increase from 810 aircraft in 

2016 to 1,044 aircraft in 2037 driven by the 

growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body 

cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 

less than 1 aircraft a year as 757’s and 

737’s are converted from passenger use to 

cargo service. The wide body cargo fleet is 

forecast to increase 11 aircraft a year as 

new 747-800, 777-200, and new and converted 767-300 aircraft are added to the 

fleet, replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 

767-200 freighters.
29

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2006 2016 2026 2037

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals
30

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

An unmanned aircraft system is defined by 

statute as an aircraft that is operated without the possibility of direct human intervention from within or on the aircraft. A UAS is 

the unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associated elements (including communication 

links and the components that control the 

unmanned aircraft) that are required for the 

safe and efficient operation of the unmanned aircraft in the National Airspace 

System (NAS). This forecast is primarily 

driven by the ongoing evolution of the UAS 

regulatory environment, the ingenuity of 

manufacturers and operators, and underlying demand. While continuing to enable the 

thriving UAS industry, these efforts will facilitate the safe integration of UAS into the 

NAS. 

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast

On December 14, 2015, the FAA issued a 

rule requiring all UAS weighing more than 

0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 

pounds to be registered using a new on-line 

system (UAS weighing more than 55 

pounds must be registered using the existing Aircraft Registration Process). FAA’s 

online registration system went into effect 

on Dec. 21st, 2015. By December 31, 2016, 

626,245 owner-hobbyists had registered. 

The rule allows hobbyists to register once 

and apply their unique registration number 

to multiple aircraft, unlike non-hobbyists

who must obtain a unique registration number for each non-hobby aircraft. As a result, 

for each registration, one or more aircraft is 

likely to be owned (with a few exceptions of 

no aircraft being owned as well). For the 

entire online registration period up to the

first week of February 2017, the cumulative 

registration trend has been one of growth, 

with the trend slowing over time. Weekly 

registration currently averages between 

5,000 and 7,000, with anticipated hikes during the holiday seasons. 

A geographic distribution shows hobbyist

UAS ownership are distributed across the 

country with denser ownership correlated

with population centers. 

In addition to information from the registration database, the Transportation Research 

Board (TRB) of the National Academies of 

Science held a UAS forecast workshop on

October 25-26, 2016 involving industry, academia, and numerous modeler (hobbyist)

and industry groups. The primary focus of 

this workshop was to understand the personalized nature and numerous applications 

of UAS, maturity trends and their drivers, 

and safety implications of the UAS fleet 

from gradual integration into NAS. Further-
31

more, the Agency engaged outside consulting firms to aid forecasting efforts for both

the model and non-model UAS fleets. 

The FAA recognizes that uncertainty is 

abundant in projecting both the model and 

the non-model UAS fleet. Hence, we provide a base forecast (i.e., likely) with high

and low ranges in the following table for the 

model UAS fleet. 

With over 626,000 hobbyists registered as 

of December 31, 2016, FAA estimates that 

there are around 1.1 million units that can 

be identified as distinctly hobbyist or model 

aircraft. By an examination of last year’s 

data, from February 2016 to February 2017, 

we calculate the compound annual growth 

rate to be around 68%. This is a substantial 

growth rate as anticipated from the introduction of drones as a hobby sport facilitated by 

falling prices, improved technology such as 

built-in camera and ease of use. The registration database allowed early adopters to 

enroll easily. However, the trend is likely to 

slow as prices settle and early adopters 

learn to make use of their aircraft. Given the 

registration trends observed, expert opinions collected during the TRB-workshop, a 

review of available industry forecasts, and 

market/industry research, FAA forecasts 

that the hobbyist fleet will likely (base scenario) more than triple in size over the next 

5 years, from 1.1 million units in 2016 to 

over 3.5 million units by 2021. The high 

scenario may reach as high as 4.5 million 

units while the low scenario could be as low 

as 2.75 million units over the next 5 years. 

Growth rates underlying these numbers are 

fairly steady at the initial years but slowing 

in the last 2 years.

Total Hobbyist Fleet

Million sUAS Units

Year Low Base High

2016 1.10 1.10 1.10

2017 1.94 2.15 2.31

2018 2.37 2.80 3.18

2019 2.60 3.20 3.79

2020 2.69 3.40 4.15

2021 2.75 3.55 4.47

Commercial Small UAS Forecast

Prior to on-line registration, commercial 

UAS operators were required to register using the legacy paper-based process. Since 

the on-line system went live on April 1, 

2016, more than 44,000 commercial UAS

have been registered. 

For each week on-line registration has been 

available, around 1,000 non-hobby units 

have been registered. 
32

Similar to hobbyists, a geospatial distribution of commercial small UAS ownership 

shows denser areas correlated with economic or commercial activities across the

country. 

In June 2016 the FAA issued the Small UAS 

Rule (14 CFR part 107), which regulates the

operation of small unmanned aircraft system in the National Airspace System. This 

rule, which took effect on August 29, 2016, 

provided a regulatory structure for the routine operation of small UAS for commercial 

purposes. 

The commercial drone sector is very dynamic and appears to be at an early stage 

of growth. Unlike the hobbyist sector, FAA 

anticipates that growth in this sector will 

continue to accelerate over the next few 

years. Given the clarity that part 107 has 

provided to the industry, increasing commercial applications will become likely,

which will facilitate additional growth. 

Based on the registration trends observed, 

expert opinions collected during the TRBworkshop, review of available industry forecasts, and market/industry research, FAA 

forecasts that the non-hobbyist fleet by 

2021 will likely (base scenario) be ten times 

larger than the size of the fleet in 2016. 

FAA projects the number of units in the 

commercial small UAS fleet will exceed 

420,000 by 2021, compared to 42,000 in 

2016. 

The forecast commercial small UAS fleet is 

primarily (over 95%) consumer grade offthe-shelf aircraft due to lower prices, ease 

of use, and availability. However, the higher-end, bigger, professional grade fleet 

stands to expand rapidly over time, especially as newer and more sophisticated uses 

are devised. Thus, while most (over 90%) 

of the growth in the commercial small UAS 

fleet will come from the consumer grade 

UAS, we anticipate a significant portion of 

commercial growth will come from professional grade UAS as well. 

Total Non-Hobbyist (Commercial) Fleet

Million sUAS Units

Year Low Base High

2016 0.042 0.042 0.042

2017 0.095 0.108 0.235

2018 0.133 0.167 0.445

2019 0.173 0.242 0.742

2020 0.207 0.327 1.133

2021 0.238 0.422 1.616

Commercial small UAS are presently used 

for numerous applications. A review of 

available industry/market research (e.g., 

AUVSI (2015), Bard Primary Use in 2015, 

Bard Likely Use in 2016, Fredonia (2015), 

and other reports (2016)) reveals their overall present (2015-2016) uses in the following 

chart: 
33

Major applications of commercial small UAS 

are aerial photography (34%), construction, 

industrial and utility inspection (26%), real 

estate (26%) and agriculture (21%). Many of 

these UAS have multiple uses, and hence, 

the sum of the percentages in the above 

chart exceeds 100%. 

One way to understand trends in commercial small UAS is to analyze the waiver applications that are filed by commercial UAS 

operators. Both the magnitude and relative 

composition of the types of waiver requests 

may indicate the direction of the commercial 

UAS sector as a whole. A breakdown of the 

top 5 waiver requests is given in the chart 

below: 

Beyond what is presently allowed under part 

107, expanding commercial applications 

further would require waivers for night operations (65%), operations over people (35%), 

and beyond visual line of sight or BVLOS 

(19%). Many of these waiver applications 

request relief for multiple types of operations, and hence, the above total exceeds 

100%. The Agency issues waivers to facilitate case-by-case commercial activities beyond the scope of what is allowed under 

part 107. Future regulatory development 

will allow these types of operations on a 

more routine basis. Meanwhile, analysis of 

these waiver applications allows us to understand industry trends, one of many metrics that is essential for projecting both the 

trajectory and growth trends of the sector. 

Finally, more than 6,800 airspace waiver 

requests were submitted for operations in 

controlled airspace by the end of December, 

2016. While almost half of them were for

operations in class D airspace (i.e., smaller 

airports with control towers), other classes 

were also requested and regularly flown.

Remote Pilot Forecast

The other important metric to understand 

trends in the commercial small UAS industry

is remote pilot certifications. The FAA issues Remote Pilots Certificates to individuals who have passed an aeronautical 

knowledge test or completed online training 

(current part 61 airmen) under part 107. At 

present (December, 2016), the FAA has 

issued more than 29,000 Remote Pilot Certificates. Over 90% of individuals who took 

the part 107 aeronautical knowledge exam 

passed, as of February, 2017. 

34

26

26

21

8

5

0 10 20 30 40

Aerial Photography

Real Estate

Construction, Industrial...

Agriculture

Emergency Management

Insurance

Percent

Present uses of Commercial sUAS 
34

The forecast for remote pilots (RPs) is thus 

based on two data sources: (a) trends in 

Remote Pilot certificates issued; and (b) 

trends in commercial small UAS registration 

and forecasts. For projecting Remote Pilot 

growth rates, we assume a ratio of the 

number of remote pilots to the number of 

aircraft in the non-hobbyist fleet. 

Using these assumptions and the base scenario of commercial small UAS forecast, we 

project the number of Remote Pilots will 

grow significantly following the growth 

trends of commercial small UAS sector. 

Estimated Number of RPs

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1 UAS per RPA 20,362 107,800 166,800 241,800 327,000 422,000

1.5 UAS per RPA 20,362 71,867 111,200 161,200 218,000 281,333

2 UAS per RPA 20,362 53,900 83,400 120,900 163,500 211,000
35

Forecast Uncertainties

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models 

built on forecasts of economic activity. 

There are many assumptions in both the 

economic forecasts and in the FAA models 

that could impact the degree to which these 

forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast 

is driven, at least in the short-term, by a 

number of factors including the strength of 

the U.S. and global economies. Shifting international dynamics and any impacts resulting from the new U.S. administration’s 

economic policies could drive further 

changes. Also, as numerous incidents in 

the past few years (like the downing of a 

Russian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) 

remind us, terrorism remains among the 

greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation could have an 

immediate and significant impact on the 

demand for aviation services that could be 

greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity. 

Although oil prices remained below $45 per 

barrel for most of 2016, the recent volatility 

reminds us there is still considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of oil prices. 

The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from 

economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s January 2017 U.S. macro forecast 

and 30-Year Focus released during the 

fourth quarter of 2016) calls for an increase

in oil prices in 2017 to $47 per barrel and 

rise steadily thereafter, exceeding $70 by 

2021, $100 by 2026, reaching $131 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2037. 

Some forecasters are calling for a more 

gradual rebound in the price of oil. In January 2017, the World Bank released its latest 

commodity price forecast. The forecast 

calls for oil prices to rise to $55 per barrel in 

2016, remaining below $65 until 2022, and 

reaching $80 per barrel by 2030. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees oil 

price increasing at a more moderate rate 

than the FAA’s base forecast, as its October 

2016 forecast called for oil prices increasing 

from $43 per barrel in 2016 to only $57.65

per barrel by 2021. Over the long run, lower 

oil prices give consumers an impetus for 

additional spending, including air travel, and 

should enhance industry profitability.

The baseline forecast assumes some level 

of tax cuts and additional infrastructure 

spending to the U.S. economy with the new 

administration. However there is considerable uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, 

and nature of these programs which ultimately determines the impact on the future 

growth of the U.S. economy. In addition 

there is still much to be worked out on how 

the U.S. will engage with the rest of the 

global economy over the next several years. 

Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along 

with increased financial stability could occur 

but there is also the possibility of an outcome that leads to greater global economic 

fragmentation, slower growth, and increased financial instability.

The baseline forecast assumes that global 

economic growth will accelerate after 2016, 

but weakness in certain areas may threaten 

the strength and sustainability of the expansion. The baseline forecast assumes that 

China and India will be growth engines for 

emerging economies as China successfully 

transitions the economy from reliance on 

heavy manufacturing and resource industries to one more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India con-
36

tinues to implement reforms to make its 

economy more competitive. While economic 

growth appears to be accelerating in the 

U.S., there are concerns about the strength 

of demand in Japan and in the European 

Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic problems 

(high debt, slow population growth, weak 

public finances for example) and in the case 

of Europe, political elections in 2017. Furthermore, the steps that were taken to stabilize the global economy during the Great 

Recession have resulted in additional distortions and imbalances. There are concerns 

that central banks may not raise interest 

rates in time to contain asset bubbles and 

inflationary expectations. In advanced 

economies, governments need to shore up 

their finances but it is unclear if policy makers will take the steps needed. Given the 

discomfort many policy makers feel about 

the measures adopted to combat the Great 

Recession and uncertainty about the advanced economies’ prospects, the possibility that authorities will either act prematurely 

or be excessively timid and late in taking 

necessary steps is not insignificant. The 

current forecasts assume strong passenger 

growth for travel between the United States 

and other world regions. Any slowing of 

worldwide economic activity could seriously 

inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

With the merger of American Airlines and 

US Airways completed and the approval of 

the Alaska Airlines/Virgin America merger, 

the outlook for further consolidation via 

mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to 

be rather limited. Based on FY 2016 data, 

the top 6 (American, Delta, United, Southwest) plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue accounted for more than 85% of the U.S. airline industry capacity and traffic. Of the 

network carriers, only Alaska remains independent, although it does have code share 

agreements with both American and Delta. 

For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of 

merger transactions or the amount of risk 

associated with a merger makes further 

merger activity unlikely. For the network 

carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authorities will respond to any future proposed 

mergers. 

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 

seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. 

However, network carrier consolidation and 

new rules on pilot training have left regional 

carriers saddled with either excess capacity 

or a lack of pilots. Although air travel demand continues to recover, the bankruptcy 

filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 

is a reminder that financial pressures on 

regional operators have not abated. Network carriers continue to make adjustments 

to the size and breadth of their networks, 

without providing opportunities for regional 

carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline 

service. Delta is well along in its plans to 

reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet 

fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring 

its total to just 125 by 2018, down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. United has 

reduced the number of small regional jets 

flown by its partners from an estimated 380 

in 2012 to 242 by the end of 2015 with a 

target of 100 by 2019. It is adding 85 Embraer 175’s to its partners’ regional fleet to 

partially replace the reduction in small jet 

flying. Meanwhile American has trimmed its 

small regional jet fleet by 60 aircraft since 

the beginning of 2015 and is planning to 

remove another 55 from service in 2017. At 

the same time the carrier plans to add 31

larger regional jets to its fleet in 2017, on 

top of the 83 that have been added in the 
37

past two years. While these actions may 

provide some opportunities for well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact 

of consolidation so far has been to reduce 

opportunities for regional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation have seen a partial recovery during the 

past six years. The pace of the recovery in 

business and corporate aviation is largely 

based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could 

pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not 

limited to these factors. Other influences, 

such as potential environmental regulations 

and taxes do not seem to be as much of a 

concern in the short term, but over the long 

term, uncertainties about the direction of 

these influences may place downward pressure on the forecast. On the other hand, 

there could be a pent-up demand for business jets in the near term that could push 

the forecast higher. While corporate profits 

have been high for several years, perceived 

economic and political uncertainties have 

caused companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. With the 

new administration’s emphasis on policies 

designed to stimulate economic growth and 

limit regulation, companies are feeling more 

optimistic about their future prospects that 

can translate into additional business jet 

sales. The impact of fuel price movements

on business aircraft demand is also uncertain. Demand is increased due to the positive effect of declining fuel prices on corporate profits. However, business aircraft demand from energy related industries will be 

negatively impacted by low fuel prices. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new entrant manufacturers, 

serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Raising the level of security restrictions, 

and the subsequent travel hassles placed 

on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look increasingly appealing. 

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating 

at most large hubs expected to increase 

over the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft is changing for this same period. The 

expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets as well as the 

anticipated widespread deployment of UAS 

into the national airspace system will make 

the FAA’s job more challenging. This 

change in the mix of aircraft will impact 

workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation services projected over 

the forecast period. 

While overall activity at FAA and contract 

towers increased 0.5 percent in 2016, activity at large and medium hub airports (61 in 

total) increased 1.9 percent in 2016 and delays remained at historically high levels at 

many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at these airports to grow substantially 

faster than the overall national trend. As 

demand continues to grow and workload 

increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in 

that they assume that there will be sufficient 

infrastructure to handle the projected levels 

of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts 

of both demand and operations would not 

be achieved. 

Community concerns about aviation related

impacts could potentially limit or delay the 

ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet 
38

national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new construction is often 

a contentious issue because of noise, air 

quality, and water quality concerns. Concerns about aviation noise have led to increasing levels of public debate, political 

interest, and even litigation. Without effective measures to mitigate and abate aviation 

noise, the infrastructure projects that are 

needed to achieve aviation growth may be 

constrained. In addition to local community

concerns outlined previously, the climate 

impacts of aviation also present global challenges. Aviation currently accounts for two 

to three percent of global carbon dioxide 

(CO2) emissions and without action this 

percentage is expected to increase with the 

growth in operations. The international aviation community is focused on implementing 

ICAO’s comprehensive approach achieving 

carbon neutral growth through a ‘basket of 

measures’ comprising of technical, operational, and infrastructure enhancements, 

sustainable alternative fuels, and the implementation of a global market-based 

measure as a gap-filler. In addition to 

providing economic benefits, technologies 

to improve aircraft fuel efficiency also provide benefits in terms of reduced CO2 emissions. The use of alternative fuels can also 

mitigate CO2 emissions while also providing 

economic benefits in areas where the fuel is 

being produced while also mitigating jet fuel 

price volatility. A global market-based 

measured for international CO2 emissions 

will impose an additional cost to international airlines; however this is economically 

preferable to a patchwork of State or Regional-level regulations around the world. 

Continued improvements in fuel efficiency, 

noise reduction and alternative fuels are 

required to ensure that access restrictions 

or operating limitations are not imposed on 

the fleet in service which in turn may depress growth. 
39

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. 

As volatility in the global environment has 

increased, the importance of scenarios for 

planning purposes has increased. In order 

to help stakeholders better prepare for the 

future, the FAA has provides alternative 

scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline 

traffic and capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, 

economic assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro 

Baselines were used. To develop the alternative scenarios, assumptions from IHS 

Global Insight’s 10-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their January 2017

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were combined with the optimistic and pessimistic 

forecasts from their Fall 2016 30-year U.S. 

Macro forecast. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create a “high” 

and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by 

IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative 

scenarios use inputs based on ratios derived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trading Partner and Minor Trading Partners optimistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to 

create a high and low case. 

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes that the economy experiences a 

pickup in growth over the next few years as 

a result of tax cuts and higher infrastructure 

spending. Oil prices remain low by historic 

standards and there are no financial sector 

collapses.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS 

Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast sees a rollback in regulations and lower corporate taxes resulting in 

higher capital spending. Stronger growth in 

investment spending leads to a boost in 

productivity and raises economic growth 

above the baseline case. Given the 

strengthening outlook, both business and 

consumer confidence improve leading to

robust consumer spending with the housing 

sector remaining an engine of growth. Continuing oversupply in oil markets keep oil 

prices low. Inflation remains in check with 

higher productivity, lower oil prices, and 

higher interest rates than in the baseline 

case. In this scenario real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) per capita 

growth averages 0.4 percentage points 

faster per year than the baseline forecast 

and unemployment averages 0.3 points 

lower on a fiscal year basis than the baseline.7

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses 

IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In

this forecast, strained relations with major 

trading partners fuels uncertainty that causes business to cut back on investment and 

slows productivity growth leading to a 

 

7 Real personal consumption expenditure per 

capita and unemployment are used as an input 

variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements.
40

pickup in both wage and price inflation. In 

addition, the Eurozone’s recovery will stall 

and growth in emerging markets will be less 

robust. The Federal Reserve raises interest 

rates to keep inflation in check but business 

and consumer confidence deteriorate. The 

combination of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and uncertainty negatively impact 

consumer spending, the housing market, 

and business investment, and the U.S. 

economy suffers a shallow recession in 

2018 and the unemployment rate peaks at 

6.6%. The Federal Reserve responds by 

slashing interest rates which spurs a recovery in 2019. In the long run, compared to 

the baseline forecast, productivity growth 

remains subdued, oil prices are higher, and 

economic growth is slower. Real PCE per 

capita in this scenario grows 0.4 percentage 

points slower per year than in the baseline; 

and unemployment, on average, is 0.9

points higher on an annual basis than in the 

baseline.

 (0.5)

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight
41

324 326 

337 

347 

357 

366 

374 

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

 290

 300

 310

 320

 330

 340

 350

 360

 370

 380

2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037

Anunal Percent Change

Population ( millions)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

All scenarios Annual Percent Change

Source: IHS Global Insight

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

 5.5

 6.0

 6.5

 7.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

% Unemployed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight
42

The price of energy is one of the drivers in 

the growth of consumer prices over the 

forecast period. In the optimistic case, energy prices and import prices grow more 

slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimistic case the opposite occurs with energy 

prices, wages and import prices rising more 

rapidly compared to the baseline. 

 -

 20

 40

 60

 80

 100

 120

 140

 160

 180

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Price per Barrel ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

BLS Index Units*

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00

Source: IHS Global Insight
43

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average 

annual rate of 1.9 percent a year over the 

forecast horizon of 2017-2037 (with domestic and international passengers up 1.7 and

3.5 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow 

at a quicker pace, averaging 2.6 percent per 

year (up 2.3 percent domestically and 4.7

percent internationally). This scenario is 

marked by a more favorable business environment, and lower fuel prices which make 

the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of 

the forecast period in 2037, system passengers in the optimistic case are 14.6 percent 

above the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 179

million greater than in the baseline.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a 

period of weakened consumer confidence 

brought on by persistent unemployment, low 

consumer demand, and higher inflation. In 

this scenario enplanements grow an average of 1.5 percent per year (domestic up

1.3 percent and international up 3.0 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2037 are 8.3 percent below the 

baseline case, totaling 1.125 billion, 101

million fewer than in the baseline.

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
44

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow 

at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent a 

year over the forecast horizon (2017-2037), 

with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent 

annually and international RPMs growing 

3.4 percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices 

drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with 

growth averaging 3.2 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and

4.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a 

slower growing economy and higher energy 

prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.0

percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.5 percent a year while international traffic grows 3.0 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 2.3 percent 

annually over the forecast horizon with 

growth averaging 1.8 percent annually in 

domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in 

international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a 

faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 3.1 percent annually system-wide

(2.4 and 4.5 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers 

increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel 

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
45

demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is lower than in the baseline, thus system 

capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.9 percent annually (domestic growth of 1.4 percent annually and international up 2.9 percent annually). 

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three 

forecast scenarios. System load factor rises 

from 83.2 percent in 2017 to 84.4 (optimistic), 84.5 (pessimistic), and 84.6 (baseline) 

percent in 2037, respectively.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side 

by actively managing capacity (seats) to 

more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the 

forecast horizon from 84.1 percent to 86.3

percent in the optimistic and pessimistic 

scenarios, respectively, while rising to 86.4 

percent in the baseline.

The international load factor is forecast to 

rise gradually from 80.9 in 2016 to 81.2 percent in 2037 in the optimistic scenario and 

81.3 percent in the baseline and pessimistic 

scenarios. This reflects in part the relative 

growth in demand and capacity in the three 

(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international 

regions under each scenario.

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
46

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system 

yield increases 2.1 percent annually, going 

from 13.56 cents in 2017 to 20.38 cents in

2037. In domestic markets, yield in the 

baseline forecast rises from 13.76 cents in

2017 to 21.16 cents in 2037. International 

yield rises from 13.04 cents in 2017 to 18.89

cents in 2037.

System yield rises in the optimistic case at 

the same rate as in the baseline, up 2.1

percent annually to 20.46 cents by 2037. 

Domestic yield increases to 21.33 cents

while international yield increases to 18.95

cents. The modest growth in yield in both

cases is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, and relatively favorable fuel prices. 

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise 

more rapidly than in the baseline, growing 

an average of 2.6 percent annually, reaching 22.62 cents by 2037 (24.55 cents domestically and 18.90 cents internationally). 

This scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and higher energy prices 

than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher 

costs of fuel, labor, and capital.
47

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2016-2037

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2016E 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2016-17 2017-22 2017-27 2017-32 2017-37

Economic

AssumptionsReal Personal Consumption Pessimistic 35,306 35,920 38,095 40,668 43,201 45,708 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Expenditure per Capita Baseline 35,306 36,022 39,406 42,339 45,575 49,102 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

(2009 $) Optimistic 35,306 36,111 41,359 44,874 48,946 53,798 2.3% 2.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 39.1 59.5 81.9 112.3 136.9 168.3 52.2% 6.6% 6.6% 5.7% 5.3%

Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 39.1 46.9 77.4 104.8 117.4 131.4 19.8% 10.6% 8.4% 6.3% 5.3%

Optimistic 39.1 44.0 67.0 92.6 97.3 104.2 12.6% 8.7% 7.7% 5.4% 4.4%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.39 2.46 2.84 3.32 3.95 4.72 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.39 2.45 2.77 3.16 3.56 4.01 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Optimistic 2.39 2.45 2.84 3.25 3.65 4.12 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.3 -2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

(%) Baseline 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 -5.6% -1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Optimistic 4.9 4.7 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 -5.4% -4.9% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

Source: IHS Global Insight
48

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2016-2037

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2016E 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2016-17 2017-22 2017-27 2017-32 2017-37

System 

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 1,111.6 1,147.0 1,253.7 1,377.0 1,516.5 1,671.5 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

(BIL) Baseline 1,111.6 1,147.0 1,297.4 1,444.2 1,618.4 1,814.2 3.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Optimistic 1,111.6 1,147.0 1,386.2 1,575.9 1,821.1 2,115.0 3.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 928.0 954.1 1,052.5 1,161.0 1,281.1 1,413.0 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

(BIL) Baseline 928.0 954.1 1,089.6 1,217.9 1,367.4 1,534.3 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%

Optimistic 928.0 954.1 1,163.8 1,327.6 1,536.1 1,784.8 2.8% 4.1% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2%

Enplanements Pessimistic 819.6 836.0 894.2 964.4 1,042.4 1,125.3 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%

(MIL) Baseline 819.6 837.5 930.6 1,013.8 1,114.0 1,226.6 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Optimistic 819.6 836.8 995.7 1,098.0 1,236.9 1,405.5 2.1% 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,346.0 7,518.2 7,950.6 8,534.8 9,210.2 9,948.0 2.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

(MIL) Baseline 7,346.0 7,518.2 8,243.3 8,953.6 9,827.0 10,808.4 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Optimistic 7,346.0 7,518.2 8,824.1 9,753.8 11,017.2 12,539.2 2.3% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,058.2 9,280.0 9,506.1 9,946.0 10,359.4 10,816.9 2.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%

(000s) Baseline 9,058.2 9,289.8 9,893.8 10,443.6 11,053.0 11,778.2 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Optimistic 9,058.2 9,284.7 10,597.9 11,297.6 12,239.2 13,445.5 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.44 13.61 15.35 17.46 19.85 22.62 1.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%(cents) Baseline 13.44 13.55 15.29 17.14 18.69 20.38 0.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

Optimistic 13.44 13.59 15.47 17.35 18.82 20.46 1.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1%

* Includes domestic and international activity.
49

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2016-2037

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2016E 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2016-17 2017-22 2017-27 2017-32 2017-37

DomesticAviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 783.0 813.3 859.8 924.4 999.1 1,076.9 3.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

(BIL) Baseline 783.0 813.3 894.3 968.0 1,061.7 1,168.5 3.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Optimistic 783.0 813.3 957.3 1,041.0 1,163.4 1,314.5 3.9% 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 663.2 684.2 732.5 792.9 860.2 929.4 3.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

(BIL) Baseline 663.2 684.2 762.2 830.7 914.7 1,009.2 3.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Optimistic 663.2 684.2 815.6 892.9 1,001.7 1,134.4 3.2% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 726.2 741.9 783.6 836.8 895.8 955.0 2.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%

(MIL) Baseline 726.2 741.9 815.3 876.7 952.6 1,037.0 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Optimistic 726.2 741.9 872.5 942.4 1043.1 1,165.7 2.2% 3.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,815.9 5,971.2 6,140.9 6,471.5 6,869.1 7,277.4 2.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%

(MIL) Baseline 5,815.9 5,971.2 6,389.6 6,779.0 7,302.7 7,900.6 2.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

Optimistic 5,815.9 5,971.2 6,842.5 7,293.0 8,005.7 8,892.1 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,391.5 8,613.7 8,740.4 9,080.1 9,379.9 9,692.4 2.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%

(000s) Baseline 8,391.5 8,613.7 9,095.4 9,512.8 9,973.5 10,524.3 2.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Optimistic 8,391.5 8,613.7 9,740.9 10,234.8 10,934.5 11,846.1 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 13.68 13.84 15.81 18.20 21.09 24.55 1.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%(cents) Baseline 13.68 13.76 15.71 17.74 19.37 21.16 0.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2%

Optimistic 13.68 13.81 15.96 18.06 19.60 21.33 0.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2%
50

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2016-2037

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2016E 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2016-17 2017-22 2017-27 2017-32 2017-37

International

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 328.6 333.7 394.0 452.6 517.4 594.6 1.5% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9%

(BIL) Baseline 328.6 333.7 403.1 476.3 556.6 645.6 1.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4%

Optimistic 328.6 333.7 428.8 534.9 657.7 800.5 1.5% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 264.8 269.8 320.0 368.1 420.8 483.7 1.9% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%

(BIL) Baseline 264.8 269.8 327.4 387.3 452.7 525.1 1.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%

Optimistic 264.8 269.8 348.2 434.7 534.4 650.4 1.9% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5%

Enplanements Pessimistic 93.4 94.1 110.7 127.5 146.6 170.3 0.7% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%

(MIL) Baseline 93.4 95.6 115.3 137.1 161.4 189.6 2.3% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

Optimistic 93.4 94.9 123.2 155.6 193.8 239.8 1.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,530.1 1,546.9 1,809.7 2,063.3 2,341.1 2,670.6 1.1% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%

(MIL) Baseline 1,530.1 1,546.9 1,853.7 2,174.6 2,524.3 2,907.8 1.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2%

Optimistic 1,530.1 1,546.9 1,981.6 2,460.7 3,011.5 3,647.1 1.1% 5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 666.8 666.4 765.7 865.8 979.5 1,124.5 -0.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7%

(000s) Baseline 666.8 676.1 798.4 930.8 1,079.4 1,254.0 1.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%

Optimistic 666.8 671.1 857.0 1,062.8 1,304.7 1,599.4 0.6% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 12.83 13.03 14.31 15.85 17.31 18.90 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

(cents) Baseline 12.83 13.03 14.31 15.85 17.31 18.89 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

Optimistic 12.83 13.03 14.33 15.89 17.37 18.95 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
51

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of 

uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment 

and reliance on industry knowledge and the 

forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. 

Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to 

build forecast models that give a consistent 

and predictable pattern of results. Analysts 

relying on the forecasts produced by the 

models would then be able to adjust for the 

predictable variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the 

variance from historical results for a primary 

forecast assumption along with five key 

forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2016 

forecast period. Although many of the forecasts prepared for the period examined 

were developed while the U.S. airline industry was going through upheaval, the FAA’s 

forecast methodology remained consistent 

during this time. For this reason, inclusion 

of prior periods in an analysis of forecast 

variance might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of 

FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. 

GDP. Each metric has five values showing 

the relative forecast variance by the number 

of years in advance the preparation of the 

forecast took place. For example, the “3 

Years” column for ASMs shows that the 

mean absolute percent error was 5.6 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in 

advance. For the period under examination, 

preparation of the forecasts for FY 2010 

through FY 2016 occurred in FY 2006 

through FY 2015. 8

 

8 It should be noted that the first forecasted year 

for each respective fiscal year is that very same 

year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year 

is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 

2012. 
52

Presenting forecast variances from actual 

data in such a manner simplifies a review of 

longer-term trends. Typically, one would 

expect the variances to decrease as the 

forecast year is closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of 

changes in the relative variances by time 

horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in 

accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, 

are similar to the variances of the key traffic 

measures, Passenger Enplanements and 

RPMs. This suggests that a substantial 

amount of the forecast variance for the traffic variables may be attributed to the forecast error in the exogenous variables. Second, all the metrics examined show increasing variances as the forecast time horizon 

lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR 

aircraft handled relative to ASM variance is 

fairly consistent for the 2 to 4 year out horizon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year 

forecast horizon carriers are able to accommodate changes in capacity by means 

other than adjusting operations. Many carriers have been systematically reducing the 

number smaller regional jets in their fleets, 

replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft. This has allowed carriers to increase 

capacity without increasing flights. It is 

worth noting that the forecast variance in 

these two metrics is relatively consistent 

even as the time horizon increases suggesting that over the long run ASM growth is a 

good indicator of operations growth.

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2016)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 1.3% 3.0% 5.7% 8.6% 10.6%

ASMs 1.0% 2.3% 5.6% 10.3% 15.2%

RPMs 1.1% 1.9% 4.6% 8.6% 12.5%

Passenger Enplanements 0.8% 1.7% 4.6% 8.5% 12.0%

Mainline Domestic Yield 3.0% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9% 7.5%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 1.6% 3.5% 7.0% 11.6% 17.7%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS
53

Appendix C: Forecast Tables
54

TABLE 1

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

FISCAL YEAR 2016 FISCAL YEAR 2017 FISCAL YEAR 2018

ECONOMIC VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

(2009 $) 35,045 35,132 35,433 35,614 35,765 35,954 36,101 36,265 36,433 36,690 36,946 37,168

Year over year change 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars per barrel) 40.61 30.78 42.18 42.90 44.32 45.63 48.25 49.22 48.46 47.39 50.46 52.05

Year over year change -45.0% -35.8% -26.5% -9.8% 9.1% 48.2% 14.4% 14.7% 9.3% 3.9% 4.6% 5.8%

Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 238.1 237.9 239.4 240.4 242.4 244.0 245.4 246.6 247.7 248.9 250.4 251.8

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 0.8% -0.3% 2.5% 1.6% 3.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.5% 2.3%

Source: IHS Global Insight
55

TABLE 2

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

REAL GROSS 

DOMESTIC PRODUCT 

REAL PERSONAL 

CONSUMPTION 

EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA

CONSUMER PRICE 

INDEX

REFINERS' 

ACQUISITION COST 

AVERAGE

FISCAL YEAR (Billions 2009 $) (2009 $) (1982-84=1.00) (Dollars per barrel)Historical2010 14,685 32,186 2.17 74.61

2011 14,958 32,787 2.23 96.00

2012 15,306 33,034 2.29 102.81

2013 15,510 33,217 2.32 100.78

2014 15,884 33,786 2.36 97.79

2015 16,321 34,682 2.37 56.69

2016E 16,581 35,306 2.39 39.12

Forecast2017 16,937 36,022 2.45 46.85

2018 17,365 36,810 2.50 49.59

2019 17,791 37,651 2.56 55.48

2020 18,163 38,259 2.62 62.83

2021 18,563 38,832 2.69 70.19

2022 18,960 39,406 2.77 77.41

2023 19,353 39,965 2.84 84.22

2024 19,730 40,545 2.92 90.38

2025 20,099 41,145 3.00 95.95

2026 20,454 41,729 3.08 100.92

2027 20,834 42,339 3.16 104.79

2028 21,262 42,989 3.24 107.42

2029 21,683 43,623 3.31 109.79

2030 22,114 44,244 3.39 112.24

2031 22,557 44,896 3.47 114.76

2032 23,002 45,575 3.56 117.38

2033 23,448 46,260 3.64 120.05

2034 23,927 46,962 3.73 122.79

2035 24,411 47,662 3.82 125.60

2036 24,901 48,369 3.91 128.48

2037 25,392 49,102 4.01 131.44

Avg Annual Growth

2010-16 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% -10.2%

2016-17 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 19.8%

2016-26 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 9.9%

2016-37 2.1% 1.6% 2.5% 5.9%

Source: IHS Global Insight
56

TABLE 3

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR CANADA

EUROPE / AFRICA/ 

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA / 

CARIBBEAN / 

MEXICO

JAPAN / PACIFIC 

BASIN / CHINA / 

OTHER ASIA / 

AUSTRALIA / NEW 

ZEALAND WORLD

Historical

2010 1,614 25,032 5,201 19,001 65,811

2011 1,664 25,651 5,430 19,896 67,844

2012 1,693 25,854 5,578 20,838 69,504

2013 1,735 26,098 5,737 21,854 71,226

2014 1,780 26,579 5,797 22,808 73,140

2015 1,796 27,052 5,773 23,819 75,037

2016E 1,820 27,501 5,711 24,851 76,739

Forecast

2017 1,858 27,974 5,778 25,928 78,779

2018 1,902 28,540 5,909 27,064 81,110

2019 1,945 29,137 6,092 28,252 83,527

2020 1,984 29,774 6,296 29,473 86,004

2021 2,026 30,447 6,489 30,802 88,642

2022 2,067 31,137 6,694 32,195 91,384

2023 2,109 31,831 6,902 33,629 94,165

2024 2,150 32,530 7,122 35,109 96,994

2025 2,192 33,234 7,344 36,608 99,832

2026 2,236 33,930 7,578 38,137 102,713

2027 2,279 34,639 7,818 39,684 105,659

2028 2,322 35,353 8,064 41,232 108,641

2029 2,365 36,071 8,316 42,791 111,643

2030 2,409 36,802 8,576 44,350 114,677

2031 2,454 37,539 8,843 45,898 117,725

2032 2,500 38,284 9,119 47,447 120,792

2033 2,547 39,040 9,403 49,019 123,910

2034 2,595 39,806 9,697 50,609 127,097

2035 2,645 40,584 10,001 52,240 130,353

2036 2,696 41,376 10,313 53,914 133,678

2037 2,748 42,186 10,635 55,623 137,073

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 4.6% 2.6%2016-17 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 4.3% 2.7%2016-26 2.1% 2.1% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0%2016-37 2.0% 2.1% 3.0% 3.9% 2.8%Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
57

TABLE 4

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2010 U.S. Dollars)

CALENDAR YEAR

NORTH 

AMERICA 

(NAFTA) EUROZONE

UNITED 

KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical

2010 17,629 12,645 2,431 5,713 6,0852011 17,962 12,846 2,468 5,708 6,6682012 18,371 12,736 2,500 5,793 7,1902013 18,692 12,708 2,548 5,910 7,7482014 19,137 12,858 2,626 5,925 8,3142015 19,605 13,106 2,684 5,999 8,8902016E 19,914 13,326 2,740 6,058 9,485Forecast

2017 20,362 13,516 2,776 6,120 10,089

2018 20,889 13,732 2,809 6,176 10,7172019 21,375 13,932 2,852 6,219 11,3702020 21,830 14,124 2,904 6,230 12,0622021 22,313 14,333 2,970 6,290 12,7872022 22,809 14,550 3,039 6,351 13,5572023 23,297 14,767 3,107 6,418 14,3552024 23,771 14,984 3,173 6,483 15,1912025 24,230 15,197 3,239 6,545 16,0362026 24,700 15,409 3,306 6,607 16,8962027 25,201 15,620 3,375 6,666 17,7652028 25,725 15,832 3,444 6,722 18,6212029 26,248 16,045 3,514 6,779 19,4682030 26,786 16,258 3,584 6,833 20,3022031 27,335 16,472 3,656 6,885 21,1162032 27,888 16,685 3,730 6,936 21,9112033 28,453 16,898 3,805 6,987 22,7072034 29,050 17,112 3,881 7,037 23,5072035 29,657 17,327 3,959 7,085 24,3262036 30,270 17,541 4,038 7,133 25,1662037 30,894 17,758 4,119 7,178 26,019Avg Annual Growth2010-16 2.1% 0.9% 2.0% 1.0% 7.7%

2016-17 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 6.4%

2016-26 2.2% 1.5% 1.9% 0.9% 5.9%

2016-37 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% 0.8% 4.9%

Source: Global Insight website, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
58

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical2010 635 77 712 555 231 786

2011 650 81 731 572 242 815

2012 654 83 737 578 245 822

2013 654 85 739 584 250 834

2014 669 88 757 600 257 857

2015 696 90 786 629 261 890

2016E 726 93 820 663 265 928

Forecast2017 742 96 838 684 270 954

2018 762 99 861 705 281 986

2019 783 103 886 726 292 1,018

2020 794 107 901 738 304 1,042

2021 805 111 916 750 316 1,066

2022 815 115 931 762 327 1,090

2023 826 119 946 774 339 1,114

2024 838 124 962 788 351 1,1392025 851 128 979 802 363 1,165

2026 863 132 996 816 375 1,1912027 877 137 1,014 831 387 1,218

2028 892 142 1,034 848 400 1,2482029 907 147 1,054 864 413 1,2772030 921 151 1,073 880 426 1,3062031 937 156 1,093 897 439 1,3362032 953 161 1,114 915 453 1,3672033 968 167 1,135 932 466 1,3992034 985 172 1,158 951 481 1,4322035 1,002 178 1,180 970 495 1,4652036 1,019 184 1,203 989 510 1,4992037 1,037 190 1,227 1,009 525 1,534

Avg Annual Growth

2010-16 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.8%

2016-17 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 3.2% 1.9% 2.8%

2016-26 1.7% 3.6% 2.0% 2.1% 3.5% 2.5%

2016-37 1.7% 3.4% 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 2.4%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
59

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical

2010 679 555 81.7 281 231 82.1 961 786 81.8

2011 693 572 82.5 300 242 80.7 994 815 82.0

2012 694 578 83.2 300 245 81.4 995 822 82.6

2013 700 584 83.4 303 250 82.6 1,003 834 83.2

2014 711 600 84.4 315 257 81.4 1,026 857 83.5

2015 744 629 84.5 323 261 80.7 1,067 890 83.4

2016E 783 663 84.7 329 265 80.6 1,112 928 83.5

Forecast

2017 813 684 84.1 334 270 80.9 1,147 954 83.2

2018 835 705 84.4 347 281 80.9 1,182 986 83.4

2019 857 726 84.7 361 292 81.0 1,218 1,018 83.6

2020 870 738 84.9 375 304 81.1 1,245 1,042 83.7

2021 882 750 85.1 389 316 81.1 1,271 1,066 83.9

2022 894 762 85.2 403 327 81.2 1,297 1,090 84.0

2023 907 774 85.4 417 339 81.3 1,324 1,114 84.1

2024 921 788 85.5 432 351 81.3 1,353 1,139 84.2

2025 936 802 85.6 446 363 81.3 1,383 1,165 84.2

2026 952 816 85.7 461 375 81.3 1,413 1,191 84.3

2027 968 831 85.8 476 387 81.3 1,444 1,218 84.3

2028 987 848 85.9 492 400 81.3 1,479 1,248 84.4

2029 1,005 864 86.0 508 413 81.3 1,513 1,277 84.4

2030 1,023 880 86.0 524 426 81.3 1,547 1,306 84.4

2031 1,042 897 86.1 540 439 81.3 1,582 1,336 84.5

2032 1,062 915 86.2 557 453 81.3 1,618 1,367 84.5

2033 1,082 932 86.2 574 466 81.3 1,655 1,399 84.5

2034 1,103 951 86.2 591 481 81.3 1,694 1,432 84.5

2035 1,124 970 86.3 609 495 81.3 1,733 1,465 84.5

2036 1,146 989 86.3 627 510 81.3 1,773 1,499 84.6

2037 1,169 1,009 86.4 646 525 81.3 1,814 1,534 84.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 2.4% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8%2016-17 3.9% 3.2% 1.5% 1.9% 3.2% 2.8%2016-26 2.0% 2.1% 3.4% 3.5% 2.4% 2.5%2016-37 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4%Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
60

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC

LATIN 

AMERICA PACIFIC

TOTAL 

INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)

Historical

2010 25 40 13 77 109 63 59 2312011 25 42 14 81 112 67 64 2422012 25 44 14 83 108 70 66 2452013 25 46 14 85 107 75 69 2502014 25 49 14 88 108 80 69 2572015 25 52 14 90 107 83 71 2612016E 24 55 14 93 105 87 73 265Forecast

2017 24 57 14 96 105 88 77 270

2018 25 59 15 99 110 92 79 281

2019 26 61 15 103 115 97 81 292

2020 27 64 16 107 119 102 83 304

2021 28 67 16 111 123 107 85 316

2022 29 70 16 115 127 112 88 327

2023 30 73 17 119 131 117 90 339

2024 30 76 17 124 135 123 93 351

2025 31 79 18 128 139 128 95 363

2026 32 82 18 132 143 134 98 375

2027 33 86 19 137 147 140 101 387

2028 33 89 19 142 150 146 103 400

2029 34 93 20 147 154 152 106 413

2030 35 96 20 151 158 159 109 426

2031 36 100 21 156 162 165 112 439

2032 37 104 21 161 166 172 114 453

2033 37 108 21 167 171 179 117 466

2034 38 112 22 172 175 186 120 481

2035 39 116 23 178 179 193 123 495

2036 40 120 23 184 183 201 126 510

2037 41 125 24 190 188 209 129 525

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -0.1% 5.5% 1.4% 3.2% -0.6% 5.6% 3.5% 2.3%

2016-17 -0.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1% 5.4% 1.9%

2016-26 2.7% 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 3.2% 4.4% 3.0% 3.5%

2016-37 2.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.4% 2.8% 4.2% 2.8% 3.3%

Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
61

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

U.S./CANADA 

TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical2010 56 53 27 22 157

2011 58 57 28 23 166

2012 61 61 31 25 178

2013 63 65 32 26 185

2014 66 69 34 28 197

2015 70 75 36 27 207

2016E 73 79 39 27 219

Forecast

2017 77 83 41 28 229

2018 79 84 43 30 235

2019 82 86 44 31 243

2020 86 89 46 32 252

2021 89 92 48 33 262

2022 92 96 50 34 273

2023 96 99 53 35 283

2024 99 103 55 37 294

2025 103 108 57 38 305

2026 106 112 59 39 316

2027 110 117 62 40 328

2028 113 122 64 42 340

2029 117 127 66 43 353

2030 121 132 69 44 366

2031 124 138 71 46 379

2032 128 143 73 47 392

2033 132 149 76 49 406

2034 136 156 78 51 421

2035 140 163 80 52 436

2036 145 170 83 54 451

2037 149 177 85 56 467

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 4.6% 6.8% 6.6% 3.8% 5.6%

2016-17 4.6% 5.2% 4.4% 3.8% 4.7%

2016-26 3.7% 3.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8%

2016-37 3.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canad
62

TABLE 9

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INTERNATIONAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 874.8 2,988.0 1,104.2

2011 122.5 216.8 141.1 880.1 2,992.7 1,114.22012 123.4 213.9 141.5 883.6 2,949.6 1,116.1

2013 124.9 214.4 143.0 893.6 2,942.1 1,129.5

2014 127.4 214.8 145.6 897.0 2,917.0 1,131.82015 131.5 214.8 149.0 902.7 2,892.3 1,131.0

2016E 134.6 214.8 151.3 913.2 2,833.7 1,132.2

Forecast2017 136.2 215.7 152.6 922.3 2,821.8 1,139.1

2018 137.1 216.3 153.6 924.7 2,836.0 1,144.6

2019 138.0 216.6 154.6 927.2 2,838.7 1,149.62020 138.7 216.9 155.6 929.8 2,838.7 1,156.52021 139.4 217.2 156.5 932.3 2,839.4 1,163.72022 140.0 217.5 157.4 934.8 2,839.4 1,170.8

2023 140.6 217.8 158.2 937.3 2,840.0 1,177.7

2024 141.2 218.1 159.1 939.9 2,836.4 1,184.0

2025 141.7 218.4 159.8 942.4 2,833.6 1,189.8

2026 142.2 218.7 160.6 944.9 2,829.7 1,195.7

2027 142.8 219.0 161.3 947.5 2,825.6 1,201.4

2028 143.3 219.3 162.0 950.1 2,821.3 1,206.6

2029 143.9 219.6 162.7 952.6 2,817.5 1,211.9

2030 144.4 219.9 163.4 955.2 2,813.1 1,217.4

2031 144.9 220.2 164.0 957.7 2,808.7 1,222.5

2032 145.4 220.5 164.7 960.3 2,804.5 1,227.5

2033 145.9 220.8 165.3 962.8 2,797.8 1,232.3

2034 146.4 221.1 166.0 965.4 2,790.4 1,236.92035 146.9 221.4 166.6 967.9 2,783.3 1,241.6

2036 147.4 221.7 167.2 970.5 2,776.4 1,246.32037 147.9 222.0 167.8 973.1 2,769.9 1,250.8Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
63

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

(Millions) (Billions)

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical

2010 473 75 548 480 230 710

2011 488 79 567 497 241 738

2012 495 80 575 503 243 746

2013 498 82 580 511 248 759

2014 515 85 600 527 255 782

2015 543 87 630 556 259 815

2016E 575 90 665 590 262 852

Forecast

2017 589 92 681 611 267 878

2018 606 95 701 629 278 907

2019 622 99 721 648 290 937

2020 631 103 734 659 301 960

2021 639 107 747 669 313 982

2022 648 111 759 680 325 1,004

2023 657 116 772 691 336 1,027

2024 666 120 786 702 348 1,050

2025 676 124 800 715 360 1,075

2026 686 128 815 727 372 1,099

2027 697 133 830 740 384 1,125

2028 709 137 847 755 397 1,152

2029 721 142 863 770 410 1,179

2030 733 147 880 784 423 1,207

2031 745 152 897 799 436 1,235

2032 757 157 914 815 449 1,264

2033 770 162 932 830 463 1,293

2034 783 168 951 847 477 1,324

2035 797 173 970 864 491 1,355

2036 811 179 989 881 506 1,387

2037 825 185 1,009 898 521 1,419

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.2% 3.1%

2016-17 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 1.9% 3.0%

2016-26 1.8% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% 2.6%

2016-37 1.7% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
64

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 581 480 82.7 279 230 82.2 860 710 82.5

2011 594 497 83.6 299 241 80.8 893 738 82.6

2012 599 503 84.1 298 243 81.5 897 746 83.2

2013 607 511 84.2 301 248 82.6 907 759 83.7

2014 620 527 85.0 313 255 81.4 933 782 83.8

2015 653 556 85.1 321 259 80.8 973 815 83.7

2016E 692 590 85.3 325 262 80.7 1,017 852 83.8

Forecast

2017 722 611 84.6 330 267 80.9 1,052 878 83.5

2018 741 629 84.9 344 278 81.0 1,085 907 83.7

2019 761 648 85.1 357 290 81.0 1,118 937 83.8

2020 772 659 85.4 371 301 81.1 1,143 960 84.0

2021 782 669 85.6 385 313 81.2 1,167 982 84.1

2022 793 680 85.7 399 325 81.3 1,192 1,004 84.2

2023 804 691 85.9 413 336 81.4 1,218 1,027 84.3

2024 817 702 86.0 428 348 81.4 1,244 1,050 84.4

2025 830 715 86.1 442 360 81.4 1,272 1,075 84.5

2026 843 727 86.2 457 372 81.4 1,300 1,099 84.5

2027 858 740 86.3 472 384 81.4 1,330 1,125 84.6

2028 874 755 86.4 488 397 81.4 1,362 1,152 84.6

2029 890 770 86.5 503 410 81.4 1,394 1,179 84.6

2030 906 784 86.5 519 423 81.4 1,425 1,207 84.7

2031 923 799 86.6 535 436 81.4 1,458 1,235 84.7

2032 940 815 86.7 552 449 81.4 1,492 1,264 84.7

2033 958 830 86.7 569 463 81.4 1,526 1,293 84.7

2034 976 847 86.8 586 477 81.4 1,562 1,324 84.7

2035 995 864 86.8 604 491 81.4 1,599 1,355 84.8

2036 1,014 881 86.8 622 506 81.4 1,636 1,387 84.8

2037 1,034 898 86.9 640 521 81.4 1,674 1,419 84.8

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 3.0% 3.5% 2.6% 2.2% -0.3% 2.8% 3.1%

2016-17 4.3% 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.4% 3.4% 3.0%

2016-26 2.0% 2.1% 3.5% 3.6% 0.1% 2.5% 2.6%

2016-37 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
65

TABLE 12

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

FISCAL YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical

2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.6

2011 25.3 39.8 13.5 78.6

2012 24.8 41.0 14.0 79.9

2013 24.8 43.0 14.4 82.2

2014 25.0 46.2 14.0 85.1

2015 24.6 48.6 14.0 87.2

2016E 24.4 51.5 14.0 89.9

Forecast

2017 24.3 53.3 14.4 92.1

2018 25.5 55.1 14.8 95.4

2019 26.4 57.7 15.2 99.3

2020 27.2 60.4 15.6 103.2

2021 28.1 63.2 16.0 107.3

2022 28.9 66.1 16.4 111.4

2023 29.7 69.0 16.8 115.5

2024 30.4 72.1 17.3 119.8

2025 31.1 75.1 17.7 124.0

2026 31.9 78.3 18.2 128.3

2027 32.6 81.6 18.6 132.9

2028 33.4 85.0 19.1 137.5

2029 34.2 88.4 19.6 142.2

2030 35.0 91.9 20.1 147.0

2031 35.8 95.5 20.5 151.9

2032 36.6 99.2 21.0 156.8

2033 37.4 103.1 21.5 162.1

2034 38.3 107.2 22.0 167.5

2035 39.2 111.4 22.5 173.1

2036 40.2 115.6 23.0 178.8

2037 41.1 119.9 23.6 184.6

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -0.1% 5.6% 1.4% 3.2%

2016-17 -0.3% 3.6% 2.8% 2.4%

2016-26 2.7% 4.3% 2.6% 3.6%

2016-37 2.5% 4.1% 2.5% 3.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
66

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(BIL)

RPMs 

(BIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical2010 131 109 82.9 78 62 79.2 70 59 84.1 279 230 82.2

2011 138 112 80.7 82 66 79.9 78 64 81.8 299 241 80.8

2012 132 108 81.5 85 68 80.9 81 66 82.0 298 243 81.5

2013 128 107 83.3 90 73 81.1 83 69 83.1 301 248 82.6

2014 132 108 81.7 97 78 80.6 84 69 82.0 313 255 81.4

2015 133 107 80.0 101 81 80.3 86 71 82.5 321 259 80.8

2016E 134 105 78.0 104 85 81.4 87 73 83.9 325 262 80.7

Forecast

2017 133 105 78.9 105 86 81.6 92 77 83.2 330 267 80.9

2018 140 110 79.0 109 89 81.6 95 79 83.2 344 278 81.0

2019 145 115 79.2 115 94 81.6 97 81 83.2 357 290 81.0

2020 150 119 79.4 121 99 81.6 100 83 83.2 371 301 81.1

2021 155 123 79.6 127 104 81.6 103 85 83.2 385 313 81.2

2022 160 127 79.8 134 109 81.6 106 88 83.2 399 325 81.3

2023 164 131 80.0 140 115 81.6 109 90 83.2 413 336 81.4

2024 169 135 80.0 147 120 81.6 112 93 83.2 428 348 81.4

2025 174 139 80.0 154 125 81.6 115 95 83.2 442 360 81.4

2026 178 143 80.0 161 131 81.6 118 98 83.2 457 372 81.4

2027 183 147 80.0 168 137 81.6 121 101 83.2 472 384 81.42028 188 150 80.0 175 143 81.6 124 103 83.2 488 397 81.42029 193 154 80.0 183 149 81.6 128 106 83.2 503 410 81.42030 198 158 80.0 190 155 81.6 131 109 83.2 519 423 81.42031 203 162 80.0 198 162 81.6 134 112 83.2 535 436 81.42032 208 166 80.0 207 168 81.6 137 114 83.2 552 449 81.42033 213 171 80.0 215 175 81.6 141 117 83.2 569 463 81.42034 218 175 80.0 224 182 81.6 144 120 83.2 586 477 81.42035 224 179 80.0 233 190 81.6 148 123 83.2 604 491 81.42036 229 183 80.0 242 197 81.6 151 126 83.2 622 506 81.42037 235 188 80.0 251 205 81.6 155 129 83.2 640 521 81.4Avg Annual Growth2010-16 0.4% -0.6% 4.9% 5.4% 3.7% 3.6% 2.6% 2.2%2016-17 -0.9% -0.2% 1.3% 1.0% 5.8% 4.9% 1.6% 1.9%

2016-26 2.9% 3.1% 4.4% 4.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.5% 3.6%

2016-37 2.7% 2.8% 4.3% 4.3% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
67

TABLE 14

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

ATLANTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Seats/Mile)

PACIFIC 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

SYSTEM 

(Seats/Mile)

Historical

2010 152.0 231.7 171.7 287.2 220.9 169.2

2011 152.3 230.5 173.2 282.9 221.0 170.0

2012 152.7 230.4 171.8 278.3 219.4 169.9

2013 153.9 233.3 171.8 276.2 219.2 170.8

2014 155.5 236.1 173.0 276.2 219.7 172.4

2015 157.7 237.0 173.9 272.1 219.5 173.8

2016E 159.8 241.7 174.1 266.6 219.8 175.1

Forecast2017 160.4 242.2 174.6 267.3 220.6 175.4

2018 161.1 242.7 175.1 268.1 221.1 176.22019 161.7 243.2 175.6 268.8 221.4 176.9

2020 162.3 243.7 176.1 269.6 221.5 177.7

2021 162.9 244.2 176.6 270.3 221.7 178.5

2022 163.5 244.7 177.1 271.1 221.9 179.3

2023 164.0 245.2 177.6 271.8 222.1 180.0

2024 164.6 245.7 178.1 272.6 222.3 180.7

2025 165.1 246.2 178.6 273.3 222.6 181.4

2026 165.6 246.7 179.1 274.1 222.8 182.0

2027 166.1 247.2 179.6 274.8 223.1 182.6

2028 166.6 247.7 180.1 275.6 223.3 183.2

2029 167.0 248.2 180.6 276.3 223.5 183.8

2030 167.5 248.7 181.1 277.1 223.8 184.4

2031 167.9 249.2 181.6 277.8 224.0 184.9

2032 168.3 249.7 182.1 278.6 224.3 185.4

2033 168.7 250.2 182.6 279.3 224.5 185.9

2034 169.1 250.7 183.1 280.1 224.8 186.4

2035 169.5 251.2 183.6 280.8 225.0 187.0

2036 169.9 251.7 184.1 281.6 225.3 187.5

2037 170.4 252.2 184.6 282.3 225.6 188.0

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
68

TABLE 15

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL 

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

ATLANTIC 

(Miles)

LATIN AMERICA 

(Miles)

PACIFIC 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

SYSTEM 

(Miles)

Historical2010 1,015 4,433 1,660 4,587 3,077 1,296

2011 1,017 4,415 1,655 4,707 3,068 1,301

2012 1,017 4,356 1,668 4,725 3,040 1,298

2013 1,026 4,313 1,693 4,774 3,023 1,309

2014 1,024 4,321 1,696 4,910 2,993 1,303

2015 1,023 4,336 1,669 5,080 2,969 1,292

2016E 1,027 4,291 1,650 5,176 2,917 1,283

Forecast2017 1,036 4,311 1,611 5,303 2,903 1,288

2018 1,039 4,332 1,619 5,316 2,917 1,294

2019 1,041 4,354 1,627 5,328 2,919 1,300

2020 1,044 4,376 1,635 5,340 2,917 1,307

2021 1,047 4,393 1,644 5,351 2,915 1,315

2022 1,049 4,411 1,652 5,362 2,913 1,323

2023 1,052 4,428 1,660 5,372 2,912 1,330

2024 1,054 4,446 1,664 5,381 2,907 1,337

2025 1,057 4,464 1,668 5,391 2,902 1,343

2026 1,060 4,477 1,673 5,399 2,897 1,349

2027 1,062 4,491 1,677 5,407 2,891 1,355

2028 1,065 4,504 1,681 5,415 2,886 1,361

2029 1,068 4,518 1,685 5,422 2,880 1,366

2030 1,070 4,527 1,689 5,428 2,875 1,372

2031 1,073 4,536 1,694 5,434 2,869 1,377

2032 1,076 4,545 1,698 5,440 2,864 1,382

2033 1,078 4,554 1,699 5,445 2,856 1,387

2034 1,081 4,559 1,701 5,449 2,847 1,392

2035 1,084 4,563 1,703 5,453 2,839 1,397

2036 1,087 4,568 1,705 5,456 2,831 1,402

2037 1,089 4,572 1,706 5,459 2,823 1,406

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
69

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 12.62 13.87 12.84 14.11 12.69 13.95

2011 13.62 14.59 14.09 15.09 13.77 14.75

2012 14.08 14.73 14.74 15.41 14.30 14.95

2013 14.42 14.83 14.80 15.23 14.54 14.96

2014 15.11 15.30 14.94 15.12 15.06 15.24

2015 14.79 14.93 14.16 14.29 14.59 14.72

2016E 13.96 13.96 12.88 12.88 13.62 13.62

Forecast

2017 14.03 13.70 13.08 12.78 13.74 13.42

2018 14.29 13.68 13.28 12.71 13.98 13.38

2019 14.68 13.72 13.51 12.63 14.32 13.39

2020 15.13 13.78 13.79 12.56 14.71 13.40

2021 15.58 13.82 14.07 12.48 15.10 13.39

2022 16.02 13.84 14.36 12.41 15.49 13.38

2023 16.47 13.84 14.67 12.33 15.88 13.35

2024 16.90 13.82 14.98 12.25 16.26 13.30

2025 17.32 13.79 15.29 12.17 16.64 13.25

2026 17.72 13.74 15.60 12.10 17.00 13.19

2027 18.09 13.68 15.90 12.02 17.35 13.11

2028 18.42 13.60 16.19 11.95 17.65 13.03

2029 18.74 13.52 16.47 11.88 17.95 12.95

2030 19.07 13.43 16.76 11.81 18.26 12.86

2031 19.41 13.35 17.07 11.74 18.58 12.78

2032 19.76 13.27 17.37 11.67 18.91 12.70

2033 20.11 13.19 17.67 11.59 19.24 12.62

2034 20.47 13.11 17.99 11.52 19.58 12.54

2035 20.84 13.03 18.30 11.44 19.92 12.45

2036 21.21 12.95 18.62 11.37 20.27 12.37

2037 21.59 12.87 18.95 11.30 20.62 12.29

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% -1.5% 1.2% -0.4%

2016-17 0.5% -1.8% 1.6% -0.8% 0.9% -1.5%

2016-26 2.4% -0.2% 1.9% -0.6% 2.2% -0.3%

2016-37 2.1% -0.4% 1.9% -0.6% 2.0% -0.5%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
70

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

Historical

2010 12.73 14.00 13.33 14.65 12.50 13.74 12.84 14.11

2011 13.48 14.44 15.13 16.21 14.07 15.07 14.09 15.09

2012 13.95 14.58 15.79 16.51 14.95 15.63 14.74 15.41

2013 14.45 14.86 15.80 16.25 14.30 14.71 14.80 15.23

2014 14.84 15.02 15.76 15.96 14.15 14.32 14.94 15.12

2015 14.64 14.77 14.38 14.51 13.20 13.32 14.16 14.29

2016E 13.83 13.83 12.72 12.72 11.69 11.69 12.88 12.88

Forecast

2017 14.08 13.76 12.90 12.60 11.90 11.62 13.08 12.78

2018 14.31 13.69 13.07 12.51 12.09 11.57 13.28 12.71

2019 14.57 13.62 13.27 12.40 12.30 11.50 13.51 12.63

2020 14.88 13.55 13.51 12.30 12.56 11.44 13.79 12.56

2021 15.20 13.49 13.76 12.20 12.82 11.37 14.07 12.48

2022 15.53 13.42 14.01 12.11 13.09 11.31 14.36 12.41

2023 15.88 13.35 14.29 12.01 13.38 11.25 14.67 12.33

2024 16.24 13.28 14.56 11.91 13.67 11.19 14.98 12.25

2025 16.60 13.22 14.83 11.81 13.98 11.13 15.29 12.17

2026 16.96 13.15 15.11 11.72 14.28 11.07 15.60 12.10

2027 17.31 13.09 15.37 11.62 14.58 11.02 15.90 12.02

2028 17.64 13.02 15.62 11.54 14.85 10.96 16.19 11.95

2029 17.96 12.96 15.87 11.45 15.13 10.91 16.47 11.88

2030 18.30 12.89 16.13 11.37 15.42 10.86 16.76 11.81

2031 18.64 12.83 16.42 11.29 15.72 10.81 17.07 11.74

2032 19.00 12.76 16.67 11.20 16.02 10.76 17.37 11.67

2033 19.36 12.70 16.93 11.10 16.34 10.71 17.67 11.59

2034 19.73 12.63 17.19 11.01 16.65 10.66 17.99 11.52

2035 20.11 12.57 17.45 10.91 16.98 10.62 18.30 11.44

2036 20.49 12.51 17.72 10.82 17.31 10.57 18.62 11.37

2037 20.88 12.45 18.00 10.73 17.64 10.52 18.95 11.30

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.4% -0.2% -0.8% -2.3% -1.1% -2.7% 0.1% -1.5%

2016-17 1.8% -0.5% 1.5% -0.9% 1.8% -0.6% 1.6% -0.8%

2016-26 2.1% -0.5% 1.7% -0.8% 2.0% -0.5% 1.9% -0.6%

2016-37 2.0% -0.5% 1.7% -0.8% 2.0% -0.5% 1.9% -0.6%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
71

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL YEAR

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

FY 2016 $ 

(Cents)

Historical

2010 219.16 240.87 220.12 241.93 219.49 241.23

2011 289.32 309.89 288.10 308.58 288.87 309.41

2012 314.56 328.93 309.52 323.66 312.64 326.92

2013 308.91 317.82 299.39 308.03 305.24 314.05

2014 300.70 304.44 292.56 296.21 297.61 301.31

2015 207.29 209.21 211.77 213.73 208.96 210.90

2016E 146.17 146.17 147.01 147.01 146.47 146.47

Forecast

2017 157.22 153.58 158.13 154.47 157.55 153.90

2018 179.11 171.39 180.14 172.38 179.47 171.75

2019 202.66 189.45 203.82 190.54 203.07 189.84

2020 227.59 207.29 228.90 208.48 228.06 207.71

2021 257.83 228.69 259.32 230.00 258.36 229.16

2022 284.91 246.13 286.55 247.54 285.50 246.63

2023 309.63 260.25 311.41 261.74 310.27 260.78

2024 338.22 276.67 340.17 278.26 338.92 277.24

2025 362.44 288.61 364.52 290.27 363.19 289.21

2026 377.05 292.43 379.21 294.11 377.82 293.03

2027 387.25 292.77 389.48 294.45 388.05 293.37

2028 396.44 292.70 398.72 294.38 397.26 293.30

2029 405.38 292.39 407.71 294.07 406.21 292.99

2030 414.46 292.01 416.84 293.69 415.31 292.61

2031 423.84 291.58 426.28 293.25 424.71 292.18

2032 433.49 291.17 435.98 292.84 434.38 291.77

2033 443.37 290.79 445.92 292.46 444.28 291.39

2034 453.53 290.41 456.14 292.08 454.46 291.01

2035 463.93 290.08 466.59 291.74 464.88 290.67

2036 474.55 289.73 477.28 291.40 475.53 290.33

2037 485.46 289.42 488.25 291.08 486.46 290.01

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -6.5% -8.0% -6.5% -8.0% -6.5% -8.0%

2016-17 7.6% 5.1% 7.6% 5.1% 7.6% 5.1%

2016-26 9.9% 7.2% 9.9% 7.2% 9.9% 7.2%

2016-37 5.9% 3.3% 5.9% 3.3% 5.9% 3.3%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
72

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL

Historical

2010 11,243 16,733 27,976 1,580 6,332 7,912 12,823 23,065 35,888

2011 10,601 18,980 29,581 1,446 6,250 7,696 12,047 25,230 37,277

2012 10,886 18,310 29,196 1,409 5,952 7,361 12,295 24,262 36,557

2013 10,996 16,741 27,737 1,381 5,700 7,080 12,377 22,441 34,818

2014 11,226 15,890 27,115 1,441 6,614 8,054 12,666 22,503 35,169

2015 11,636 16,008 27,643 1,453 6,704 8,157 13,089 22,712 35,801

2016E 11,851 15,687 27,538 1,469 6,476 7,944 13,320 22,163 35,483

Forecast

2017 12,059 15,954 28,013 1,483 6,491 7,974 13,542 22,444 35,986

2018 12,446 16,544 28,990 1,519 6,633 8,152 13,965 23,177 37,142

2019 12,813 17,149 29,962 1,552 6,775 8,326 14,365 23,924 38,288

2020 13,013 17,776 30,788 1,563 6,919 8,483 14,576 24,695 39,271

2021 13,269 18,556 31,825 1,582 7,116 8,698 14,851 25,672 40,523

2022 13,499 19,431 32,930 1,597 7,340 8,937 15,096 26,771 41,867

2023 13,702 20,337 34,038 1,608 7,567 9,175 15,309 27,904 43,213

2024 13,842 21,255 35,096 1,611 7,789 9,400 15,453 29,044 44,497

2025 13,943 22,167 36,110 1,610 8,000 9,610 15,553 30,167 45,720

2026 13,992 23,139 37,131 1,603 8,222 9,825 15,595 31,361 46,956

2027 14,089 24,209 38,298 1,600 8,470 10,071 15,689 32,679 48,369

2028 14,287 25,357 39,644 1,610 8,734 10,343 15,897 34,091 49,988

2029 14,452 26,521 40,973 1,615 8,991 10,606 16,066 35,512 51,579

2030 14,620 27,737 42,357 1,620 9,255 10,875 16,240 36,992 53,232

2031 14,801 28,988 43,789 1,627 9,518 11,145 16,427 38,507 54,934

2032 14,966 30,266 45,232 1,631 9,778 11,409 16,597 40,045 56,642

2033 15,114 31,597 46,711 1,633 10,043 11,676 16,748 41,640 58,388

2034 15,323 33,025 48,347 1,641 10,325 11,967 16,964 43,350 60,314

2035 15,521 34,509 50,030 1,648 10,612 12,260 17,169 45,121 62,290

2036 15,716 36,044 51,760 1,655 10,900 12,554 17,371 46,943 64,314

2037 15,890 37,636 53,526 1,659 11,190 12,849 17,548 48,826 66,374

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 0.9% -1.1% -0.3% -1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% -0.7% -0.2%

2016-17 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4%

2016-26 1.7% 4.0% 3.0% 0.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 3.5% 2.8%

2016-37 1.4% 4.3% 3.2% 0.6% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 3.8% 3.0%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
73

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC

OTHER 

INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

FISCAL YEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)

Historical

2010 6,865 1,991 8,348 5,860 23,065

2011 7,236 1,832 9,105 7,057 25,230

2012 7,026 1,870 8,569 6,797 24,262

2013 6,662 1,789 8,184 5,806 22,441

2014 6,887 1,740 8,429 5,447 22,503

2015 6,669 1,639 9,021 5,383 22,712

2016E 6,601 1,566 8,761 5,253 22,181

Forecast

2017 6,613 1,569 9,033 5,229 22,444

2018 6,694 1,606 9,590 5,287 23,177

2019 6,799 1,637 10,098 5,389 23,924

2020 6,927 1,659 10,580 5,529 24,695

2021 7,084 1,680 11,193 5,714 25,672

2022 7,261 1,704 11,869 5,937 26,771

2023 7,448 1,721 12,547 6,187 27,904

2024 7,642 1,732 13,205 6,465 29,044

2025 7,840 1,735 13,829 6,763 30,167

2026 8,046 1,739 14,491 7,085 31,361

2027 8,265 1,750 15,231 7,434 32,679

2028 8,495 1,765 16,028 7,804 34,091

2029 8,730 1,776 16,814 8,193 35,512

2030 8,974 1,789 17,628 8,601 36,992

2031 9,224 1,802 18,454 9,027 38,507

2032 9,480 1,813 19,281 9,470 40,045

2033 9,743 1,825 20,137 9,936 41,640

2034 10,017 1,841 21,065 10,427 43,350

2035 10,298 1,857 22,021 10,944 45,121

2036 10,586 1,872 22,997 11,489 46,943

2037 10,881 1,886 23,998 12,061 48,826

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -0.7% -3.9% 0.8% -1.8% -0.6%2016-17 0.2% 0.2% 3.1% -0.5% 1.2%

2016-26 2.0% 1.1% 5.2% 3.0% 3.5%

2016-37 2.4% 0.9% 4.9% 4.0% 3.8%

Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
74

TABLE 21

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTAL

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETSHistorical

2010 3,120 8 1 3,129 470 9 43 522 3,651 71 3,722

2011 3,127 7 1 3,135 471 7 41 519 3,654 76 3,730

2012 3,123 7 0 3,130 480 3 40 523 3,653 82 3,735

2013 3,159 5 0 3,164 482 0 40 522 3,686 93 3,779

2014 3,224 2 0 3,226 475 0 37 512 3,738 98 3,836

2015 3,319 2 0 3,321 492 0 31 523 3,844 99 3,943

2016E 3,457 2 0 3,459 490 0 22 512 3,971 97 4,068

Forecast

2017 3,389 2 0 3,391 506 0 9 515 3,906 100 4,006

2018 3,442 2 0 3,444 523 0 0 523 3,967 90 4,057

2019 3,476 2 0 3,478 537 0 0 537 4,015 80 4,095

2020 3,510 2 0 3,512 564 0 0 564 4,076 80 4,156

2021 3,525 2 0 3,527 586 0 0 586 4,113 82 4,195

2022 3,555 1 0 3,556 604 0 0 604 4,160 85 4,245

2023 3,584 0 0 3,584 616 0 0 616 4,200 88 4,288

2024 3,614 0 0 3,614 625 0 0 625 4,239 91 4,330

2025 3,650 0 0 3,650 635 0 0 635 4,285 95 4,380

2026 3,679 0 0 3,679 647 0 0 647 4,326 99 4,425

2027 3,713 0 0 3,713 661 0 0 661 4,374 102 4,476

2028 3,741 0 0 3,741 673 0 0 673 4,414 102 4,516

2029 3,784 0 0 3,784 684 0 0 684 4,468 102 4,570

2030 3,851 0 0 3,851 697 0 0 697 4,548 100 4,648

2031 3,897 0 0 3,897 719 0 0 719 4,616 100 4,716

2032 3,950 0 0 3,950 748 0 0 748 4,698 100 4,798

2033 4,006 0 0 4,006 773 0 0 773 4,779 100 4,879

2034 4,074 0 0 4,074 794 0 0 794 4,868 100 4,968

2035 4,129 0 0 4,129 819 0 0 819 4,948 100 5,048

2036 4,176 0 0 4,176 844 0 0 844 5,020 100 5,120

2037 4,232 0 0 4,232 867 0 0 867 5,099 100 5,199

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.7% -20.6% N/A 1.7% 0.7% N/A -10.6% -0.3% 1.4% 5.3% 1.5%

2016-17 -2.0% 0.0% N/A -2.0% 3.3% N/A -59.1% 0.6% -1.6% 3.1% -1.5%2016-26 0.6% N/A N/A 0.6% 2.8% N/A N/A 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8%2016-37 1.0% N/A N/A 1.0% 2.8% N/A N/A 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 1.2%
75

TABLE 22

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

CALENDAR YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2011 176 89 26 291 281 203 96 580 871

2012 187 67 12 266 292 188 93 573 839

2013 192 19 2 213 296 175 64 535 748

2014 215 18 2 235 294 170 69 533 768

2015 228 22 2 252 309 156 72 537 789

2016E 235 19 2 256 328 149 77 554 810

Forecast

2017 237 19 2 258 336 138 78 552 810

2018 236 19 2 257 344 125 78 547 804

2019 239 19 2 260 362 112 78 552 812

2020 242 19 2 263 378 100 79 557 820

2021 243 18 2 263 391 97 82 570 833

2022 248 15 2 265 399 97 85 581 846

2023 249 14 2 265 410 97 86 593 858

2024 251 13 2 266 419 98 85 602 868

2025 253 12 2 267 426 98 85 609 876

2026 256 9 1 266 434 98 86 618 884

2027 261 4 0 265 448 94 88 630 895

2028 262 2 0 264 460 90 88 638 902

2029 263 1 0 264 475 86 91 652 916

2030 265 0 0 265 494 80 92 666 931

2031 266 0 0 266 508 73 95 676 942

2032 267 0 0 267 530 67 97 694 961

2033 267 0 0 267 547 61 100 708 975

2034 268 0 0 268 569 55 101 725 993

2035 269 0 0 269 587 49 105 741 1,010

2036 269 0 0 269 609 43 107 759 1,028

2037 269 0 0 269 627 39 109 775 1,044

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 7.4% -24.7% N/A -1.9% 3.6% -4.8% -3.8% -0.2% -0.8%2016-17 0.9% 0.0% N/A 0.8% 2.4% -7.4% 1.3% -0.4% 0.0%

2016-26 0.9% N/A N/A 0.4% 2.8% -4.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%2016-37 0.6% N/A N/A 0.2% 3.1% -6.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2%
76

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

U.S. AIR CARRIERS1, 2 GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMED

Historical2010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,921

2011 12,092 6,547 18,639 1,456 20,095 2 216 218 20,313

2012 12,124 6,595 18,720 1,435 20,155 2 206 208 20,363

2013 12,044 6,418 18,461 1,260 19,721 2 197 199 19,920

2014 12,167 6,348 18,514 1,466 19,981 2 210 212 20,192

2015 12,682 6,481 19,163 1,383 20,545 2 196 198 20,743

2016E 13,337 6,363 19,699 1,471 21,170 2 208 210 21,380

Forecast

2017 13,715 6,397 20,112 1,541 21,653 2 203 205 21,8592018 13,942 6,594 20,536 1,594 22,130 2 200 202 22,3322019 14,171 6,789 20,960 1,646 22,606 2 198 200 22,8062020 14,242 6,976 21,218 1,698 22,916 2 197 199 23,1142021 14,292 7,164 21,456 1,744 23,200 2 195 197 23,3972022 14,349 7,353 21,702 1,781 23,484 2 194 196 23,6802023 14,411 7,537 21,948 1,812 23,760 2 193 195 23,9562024 14,486 7,723 22,210 1,841 24,051 2 193 195 24,2462025 14,583 7,902 22,485 1,869 24,354 2 193 195 24,5492026 14,672 8,082 22,754 1,896 24,649 2 192 194 24,8432027 14,777 8,266 23,043 1,922 24,965 2 191 193 25,1582028 14,915 8,453 23,368 1,952 25,320 2 191 193 25,5132029 15,041 8,637 23,678 1,983 25,660 2 190 192 25,8522030 15,157 8,822 23,979 2,010 25,990 2 190 192 26,1822031 15,286 9,007 24,294 2,038 26,332 2 190 192 26,5242032 15,421 9,192 24,613 2,067 26,680 2 190 192 26,8722033 15,555 9,377 24,932 2,094 27,026 2 190 192 27,2182034 15,702 9,568 25,270 2,120 27,390 2 189 191 27,5812035 15,849 9,759 25,608 2,147 27,755 2 189 191 27,9462036 15,998 9,951 25,949 2,175 28,124 2 189 191 28,3162037 16,149 10,144 26,293 2,204 28,497 2 190 192 28,689Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.8% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 1.2%

2016-17 2.8% 0.5% 2.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.0% -2.2% -2.1% 2.2%

2016-26 1.0% 2.4% 1.5% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 1.5%

2016-37 0.9% 2.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% 1.4%

Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
77

TABLE 24

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

REVENUE PER

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH PASSENGER MILE**

FISCAL YEAR

DOMESTIC 

(Seats/Mile)

INT'L 

(Seats/Mile)

TOTAL 

(Seats/Mile)

DOMESTIC 

(Miles)

INT'L. 

(Miles)

TOTAL 

(Miles)

CURRENT $ 

(Cents)

2016 $ 

(Cents)

Historical2010 56.1 53.2 56.0 464 503 465 15.74 17.30

2011 56.4 52.7 56.3 467 531 468 15.10 16.18

2012 56.1 54.8 56.0 467 606 470 13.16 13.772013 56.1 66.8 56.4 469 641 472 11.65 11.982014 57.2 58.8 57.3 473 669 477 11.37 11.522015 59.9 62.8 60.0 475 696 480 10.94 11.042016E 61.3 68.8 61.5 481 721 487 11.32 11.32Forecast

2017 62.2 69.1 62.4 482 722 487 11.39 11.122018 63.1 69.4 63.3 484 725 489 11.60 11.102019 64.1 69.7 64.2 486 728 491 11.91 11.132020 64.7 70.0 64.9 488 731 494 12.27 11.172021 65.3 70.3 65.5 490 734 496 12.63 11.202022 65.8 70.6 66.0 492 737 498 12.99 11.222023 66.3 70.9 66.5 494 740 500 13.34 11.222024 66.8 71.2 67.0 496 743 502 13.69 11.202025 67.3 71.5 67.4 498 746 504 14.02 11.172026 67.8 71.8 67.9 500 749 506 14.35 11.132027 68.3 72.1 68.4 502 752 508 14.65 11.082028 68.8 72.4 68.9 504 755 510 14.91 11.012029 69.3 72.7 69.4 506 758 512 15.17 10.942030 69.8 73.0 69.9 508 761 514 15.43 10.872031 70.4 73.3 70.5 510 764 516 15.71 10.812032 70.9 73.6 71.0 512 767 518 15.99 10.742033 71.4 73.9 71.5 514 770 520 16.28 10.672034 71.9 74.2 72.0 516 773 522 16.57 10.612035 72.5 74.5 72.5 518 776 524 16.86 10.542036 73.0 74.8 73.1 520 779 526 17.16 10.482037 73.5 75.1 73.6 522 782 528 17.47 10.41Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 6.2% 0.8% -5.3% -6.8%2016-17 1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% -1.8%

2016-26 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% -0.2%2016-37 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 2.1% -0.4%Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.
78

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

(In Millions)

 REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

Historical

2010 162 3 164 75,030 1,347 76,3772011 162 2 164 75,513 1,270 76,7832012 159 3 162 74,330 1,856 76,1872013 155 3 158 72,956 1,851 74,8072014 154 3 157 72,953 1,926 74,8782015 153 3 156 72,753 2,127 74,8802016E 152 4 155 72,971 2,556 75,527Forecast

2017 152 4 156 73,482 2,574 76,0562018 157 4 160 75,793 2,655 78,4482019 161 4 165 78,128 2,737 80,8652020 163 4 167 79,598 2,788 82,3862021 165 4 169 80,953 2,836 83,7882022 167 4 171 82,343 2,884 85,2272023 170 4 174 83,768 2,934 86,7032024 172 4 176 85,276 2,987 88,2632025 175 4 179 86,918 3,045 89,9632026 177 4 181 88,528 3,101 91,6292027 180 4 184 90,253 3,161 93,4152028 183 4 187 92,191 3,229 95,4202029 186 4 190 94,079 3,295 97,3752030 189 4 193 95,927 3,360 99,2872031 192 4 196 97,912 3,430 101,342

2032 195 5 200 99,955 3,501 103,456

2033 198 5 203 102,022 3,574 105,596

2034 202 5 207 104,205 3,650 107,855

2035 205 5 210 106,413 3,728 110,141

2036 209 5 214 108,668 3,807 112,474

2037 212 5 217 110,974 3,887 114,861

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -1.1% 4.8% -1.0% -0.5% 11.3% -0.2%

2016-17 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

2016-26 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

2016-37 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
79

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL TOTAL

YEAR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

ASMs 

(MIL)

RPMs 

(MIL)

% LOAD 

FACTOR

Historical

2010 98,461 75,030 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,318 76,377 76.1

2011 99,075 75,513 76.2 1,818 1,270 69.9 100,893 76,783 76.1

2012 95,748 74,330 77.6 2,595 1,856 71.5 98,343 76,187 77.52013 93,084 72,956 78.4 2,994 1,851 61.8 96,078 74,807 77.92014 91,169 72,953 80.0 2,644 1,926 72.8 93,813 74,878 79.82015 90,679 72,753 80.2 2,832 2,127 75.1 93,511 74,880 80.12016E 91,057 72,971 80.1 3,505 2,556 72.9 94,562 75,527 79.9Forecast

2017 91,603 73,482 80.2 3,526 2,574 73.0 95,129 76,056 79.9

2018 94,132 75,793 80.5 3,623 2,655 73.3 97,756 78,448 80.2

2019 96,725 78,128 80.8 3,723 2,737 73.5 100,448 80,865 80.5

2020 98,277 79,598 81.0 3,783 2,788 73.7 102,060 82,386 80.7

2021 99,718 80,953 81.2 3,838 2,836 73.9 103,556 83,788 80.9

2022 101,228 82,343 81.3 3,897 2,884 74.0 105,124 85,227 81.1

2023 102,803 83,768 81.5 3,957 2,934 74.2 106,760 86,703 81.2

2024 104,496 85,276 81.6 4,022 2,987 74.3 108,519 88,263 81.3

2025 106,370 86,918 81.7 4,095 3,045 74.4 110,464 89,963 81.4

2026 108,217 88,528 81.8 4,166 3,101 74.4 112,382 91,629 81.5

2027 110,216 90,253 81.9 4,243 3,161 74.5 114,458 93,415 81.6

2028 112,482 92,191 82.0 4,330 3,229 74.6 116,812 95,420 81.7

2029 114,696 94,079 82.0 4,415 3,295 74.6 119,111 97,375 81.8

2030 116,867 95,927 82.1 4,499 3,360 74.7 121,365 99,287 81.8

2031 119,210 97,912 82.1 4,589 3,430 74.7 123,799 101,342 81.9

2032 121,628 99,955 82.2 4,682 3,501 74.8 126,310 103,456 81.9

2033 124,080 102,022 82.2 4,776 3,574 74.8 128,856 105,596 81.9

2034 126,675 104,205 82.3 4,876 3,650 74.9 131,551 107,855 82.0

2035 129,304 106,413 82.3 4,977 3,728 74.9 134,281 110,141 82.0

2036 131,991 108,668 82.3 5,081 3,807 74.9 137,072 112,474 82.1

2037 134,743 110,974 82.4 5,187 3,887 74.9 139,930 114,861 82.1

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -1.3% -0.5% 11.2% 11.3% 0.1% -1.0% -0.2%

2016-17 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7%

2016-26 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.2% 1.7% 2.0%

2016-37 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 2.0%

Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
80

TABLE 27

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET

JANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET* TOTAL NON JET JET TOTALHistorical

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2011 447 94 67 113 27 140 135 1,683 1,818 857 1,710 2,567

2012 394 90 55 115 23 138 104 1,559 1,663 758 1,582 2,340

2013 337 94 52 37 0 37 51 1,642 1,693 571 1,642 2,213

2014 321 90 56 32 0 32 56 1,602 1,658 555 1,602 2,157

2015 346 68 13 32 0 32 57 1,628 1,685 516 1,628 2,144

2016E 365 55 0 59 0 59 40 1,637 1,677 519 1,637 2,156

Forecast

2017 352 53 0 57 0 57 41 1,542 1,583 503 1,542 2,045

2018 339 51 0 55 0 55 43 1,496 1,539 488 1,496 1,984

2019 327 49 0 53 0 53 44 1,484 1,528 473 1,484 1,957

2020 311 47 0 50 0 50 45 1,477 1,522 453 1,477 1,930

2021 298 45 0 48 0 48 47 1,469 1,516 438 1,469 1,907

2022 285 43 0 46 0 46 49 1,464 1,513 423 1,464 1,887

2023 272 41 0 44 0 44 50 1,493 1,543 407 1,493 1,900

2024 259 39 0 42 0 42 52 1,483 1,535 392 1,483 1,875

2025 247 37 0 40 0 40 53 1,470 1,523 377 1,470 1,847

2026 237 36 0 38 0 38 55 1,486 1,541 366 1,486 1,852

2027 224 34 0 36 0 36 56 1,522 1,578 350 1,522 1,872

2028 211 32 0 34 0 34 57 1,546 1,603 334 1,546 1,880

2029 199 30 0 32 0 32 58 1,564 1,622 319 1,564 1,883

2030 186 28 0 30 0 30 59 1,587 1,646 303 1,587 1,890

2031 173 26 0 28 0 28 60 1,615 1,675 287 1,615 1,902

2032 160 24 0 26 0 26 62 1,646 1,708 272 1,646 1,918

2033 147 22 0 24 0 24 63 1,681 1,744 256 1,681 1,937

2034 134 20 0 22 0 22 65 1,723 1,788 241 1,723 1,964

2035 122 18 0 20 0 20 66 1,758 1,824 226 1,758 1,984

2036 112 17 0 18 0 18 67 1,800 1,867 214 1,800 2,014

2037 99 15 0 16 0 16 69 1,828 1,897 199 1,828 2,027

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -3.1% -8.2% -100.0% -13.8% N/A -16.3% -14.0% -0.9% -1.4% -8.0% -1.2% -3.2%

2016-17 -3.6% -3.6% N/A -3.4% N/A -3.4% 2.5% -5.8% -5.6% -3.1% -5.8% -5.1%2016-26 -4.2% -4.1% N/A -4.3% N/A -4.3% 3.2% -1.0% -0.8% -3.4% -1.0% -1.5%2016-37 -6.0% -6.0% N/A -6.0% N/A -6.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.6% -4.5% 0.5% -0.3%
81

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

AS OF DEC. 31

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION FLEET TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2011E 136,895 15,702 152,597 9,523 11,650 21,173 3,411 6,671 10,082 24,275 6,645 5,681 220,453 156,008 27,844

2012 128,847 14,313 143,160 10,304 11,793 22,097 3,292 6,763 10,055 26,715 2,001 5,006 209,034 146,452 28,860

2013 124,398 13,257 137,655 9,619 11,637 21,256 3,137 6,628 9,765 24,918 2,056 4,277 199,927 140,792 27,884

2014 126,036 13,146 139,182 9,777 12,362 22,139 3,154 6,812 9,966 26,191 2,231 4,699 204,408 142,336 28,951

2015 127,887 13,254 141,141 9,712 13,440 23,152 3,286 7,220 10,506 27,922 2,369 4,941 210,031 144,427 30,372

2016E 126,820 13,200 140,020 9,460 13,770 23,230 3,335 7,365 10,700 28,475 2,530 4,950 209,905 143,355 30,595

Forecast

2017 125,760 13,155 138,915 9,285 14,100 23,385 3,380 7,510 10,890 28,970 2,685 4,955 209,800 142,295 30,895

2018 124,730 13,115 137,845 9,180 14,415 23,595 3,425 7,650 11,075 29,490 2,835 4,960 209,800 141,270 31,245

2019 123,705 13,080 136,785 9,110 14,760 23,870 3,470 7,785 11,255 29,910 3,000 4,960 209,780 140,255 31,655

2020 122,685 13,045 135,730 9,080 15,115 24,195 3,515 7,920 11,435 30,240 3,160 4,950 209,710 139,245 32,115

2021 121,645 13,005 134,650 9,075 15,480 24,555 3,560 8,055 11,615 30,640 3,315 4,950 209,725 138,210 32,610

2022 120,600 12,965 133,565 9,115 15,845 24,960 3,605 8,195 11,800 30,895 3,480 4,955 209,655 137,170 33,155

2023 119,540 12,915 132,455 9,185 16,210 25,395 3,650 8,335 11,985 31,175 3,640 4,955 209,605 136,105 33,730

2024 118,475 12,865 131,340 9,295 16,585 25,880 3,695 8,480 12,175 31,510 3,795 4,955 209,655 135,035 34,360

2025 117,410 12,820 130,230 9,420 16,965 26,385 3,740 8,625 12,365 31,835 3,965 4,955 209,735 133,970 35,010

2026 116,335 12,765 129,100 9,570 17,345 26,915 3,785 8,775 12,560 32,065 4,125 4,970 209,735 132,885 35,690

2027 115,245 12,705 127,950 9,755 17,745 27,500 3,835 8,925 12,760 32,345 4,285 4,965 209,805 131,785 36,425

2028 114,145 12,640 126,785 9,960 18,155 28,115 3,885 9,075 12,960 32,640 4,445 4,975 209,920 130,670 37,190

2029 113,065 12,575 125,640 10,180 18,565 28,745 3,935 9,230 13,165 32,970 4,610 4,970 210,100 129,575 37,9752030 112,010 12,505 124,515 10,420 18,975 29,395 3,985 9,390 13,375 33,340 4,770 4,985 210,380 128,500 38,7852031 110,990 12,430 123,420 10,675 19,385 30,060 4,040 9,555 13,595 33,595 4,930 4,990 210,590 127,460 39,6152032 110,000 12,355 122,355 10,950 19,805 30,755 4,095 9,725 13,820 33,900 5,095 4,995 210,920 126,450 40,4802033 109,035 12,280 121,315 11,230 20,225 31,455 4,150 9,905 14,055 34,120 5,255 5,005 211,205 125,465 41,3602034 108,095 12,200 120,295 11,530 20,655 32,185 4,205 10,090 14,295 34,480 5,415 4,995 211,665 124,500 42,2752035 107,205 12,125 119,330 11,835 21,105 32,940 4,265 10,280 14,545 34,720 5,575 5,000 212,110 123,595 43,2202036 106,350 12,045 118,395 12,150 21,570 33,720 4,325 10,475 14,800 35,015 5,730 5,010 212,670 122,720 44,1952037 105,550 11,970 117,520 12,585 22,040 34,625 4,385 10,680 15,065 35,310 5,885 5,015 213,420 121,905 45,305Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -1.6% -3.1% -1.7% 0.2% 3.1% 1.8% -1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 2.3% N/A -2.3% -1.0% -1.7% 1.9%

2016-17 -0.8% -0.3% -0.8% -1.8% 2.4% 0.7% 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.1% -0.1% -0.7% 1.0%

2016-26 -0.9% -0.3% -0.8% 0.1% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% 1.6%

2016-37 -0.9% -0.5% -0.8% 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.8% 1.9%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
82

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT GENERAL

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TOTAL TURBO PROP TURBO JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL EXPERI- MENTAL** SPORT AIRCRAFT** OTHER AVIATION HOURS TOTAL PISTONS TOTAL TURBINES

Historical*2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2011E 11,844 1,782 13,626 2,463 3,407 5,871 757 2,654 3,411 1,203 278 181 24,570 14,383 8,524

2012 11,441 1,766 13,206 2,733 3,418 6,151 731 2,723 3,454 1,243 169 180 24,403 13,937 8,874

2013 10,706 1,646 12,352 2,587 3,488 6,076 636 2,312 2,949 1,191 173 135 22,876 12,989 8,388

2014 10,395 1,573 11,967 2,613 3,881 6,494 818 2,424 3,242 1,244 165 158 23,271 12,786 8,918

2015 11,217 1,608 12,825 2,538 3,837 6,375 798 2,496 3,294 1,295 191 162 24,142 13,623 8,871

2016E 11,191 1,603 12,794 2,539 4,173 6,712 784 2,565 3,350 1,335 204 162 24,558 13,578 9,278

Forecast

2017 11,007 1,596 12,604 2,538 4,445 6,983 777 2,636 3,413 1,372 218 163 24,753 13,381 9,619

2018 10,760 1,590 12,350 2,539 4,655 7,194 793 2,705 3,497 1,411 232 163 24,847 13,143 9,899

2019 10,573 1,584 12,157 2,542 4,863 7,405 809 2,773 3,582 1,446 246 163 25,000 12,966 10,178

2020 10,416 1,577 11,992 2,545 5,064 7,609 828 2,843 3,671 1,479 260 163 25,174 12,821 10,451

2021 10,295 1,570 11,865 2,554 5,250 7,804 848 2,905 3,754 1,515 275 163 25,375 12,713 10,709

2022 10,180 1,566 11,746 2,570 5,437 8,007 869 2,971 3,839 1,544 290 163 25,589 12,615 10,978

2023 10,077 1,562 11,638 2,593 5,597 8,190 886 3,037 3,922 1,575 305 163 25,794 12,524 11,227

2024 9,995 1,556 11,551 2,626 5,750 8,376 902 3,105 4,007 1,608 320 164 26,025 12,453 11,481

2025 9,901 1,550 11,451 2,662 5,894 8,556 919 3,174 4,092 1,640 335 164 26,239 12,369 11,730

2026 9,807 1,547 11,354 2,706 6,039 8,745 934 3,235 4,169 1,669 351 164 26,451 12,288 11,980

2027 9,724 1,543 11,267 2,759 6,191 8,949 950 3,297 4,247 1,701 366 164 26,694 12,216 12,247

2028 9,637 1,542 11,179 2,816 6,351 9,167 966 3,359 4,326 1,733 382 165 26,951 12,145 12,526

2029 9,561 1,543 11,104 2,881 6,511 9,392 983 3,424 4,406 1,765 398 165 27,230 12,087 12,815

2030 9,501 1,543 11,044 2,947 6,662 9,609 999 3,488 4,488 1,799 414 165 27,519 12,043 13,097

2031 9,436 1,545 10,981 3,017 6,820 9,838 1,016 3,555 4,571 1,825 430 165 27,810 11,997 13,392

2032 9,385 1,549 10,934 3,094 6,976 10,070 1,033 3,623 4,656 1,857 446 166 28,128 11,966 13,694

2033 9,339 1,553 10,892 3,175 7,125 10,300 1,049 3,696 4,745 1,883 463 166 28,449 11,941 13,996

2034 9,277 1,558 10,835 3,258 7,270 10,529 1,065 3,770 4,835 1,919 479 166 28,763 11,901 14,298

2035 9,239 1,559 10,799 3,349 7,422 10,770 1,083 3,846 4,929 1,948 496 166 29,107 11,882 14,616

2036 9,205 1,563 10,768 3,439 7,583 11,022 1,101 3,923 5,024 1,980 512 167 29,473 11,868 14,946

2037 9,187 1,566 10,754 3,561 7,736 11,296 1,118 4,005 5,124 2,007 529 167 29,876 11,872 15,302

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -1.4% -2.1% -1.5% 1.5% 3.6% 2.8% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% 1.4% N/A -1.8% -0.2% -1.4% 1.9%

2016-17 -1.6% -0.4% -1.5% 0.0% 6.5% 4.0% -0.8% 2.7% 1.9% 2.8% 6.8% 0.4% 0.8% -1.4% 3.7%

2016-26 -1.3% -0.4% -1.2% 0.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.7% -1.0% 2.6%

2016-37 -0.9% -0.1% -0.8% 1.6% 3.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.9% -0.6% 2.4%

* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 
83

TABLE 30

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF DEC. 31 STUDENTS

RECREATIONAL SPORT PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE TRANSPORT CRAFT ONLY GLIDER ONLY TOTAL PILOTS LESS AT PILOTS RATED PILOTS1

Historical*2010 119,119 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,001

2011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,122

2012 119,946 218 4,493 188,001 116,400 145,590 15,126 20,802 610,576 464,986 311,952

2013 120,285 238 4,824 180,214 108,206 149,824 15,114 20,381 599,086 449,262 307,120

2014 120,546 220 5,157 174,883 104,322 152,933 15,511 19,927 593,499 440,566 306,066

2015 122,729 190 5,482 170,718 101,164 154,730 15,566 19,460 590,039 435,309 304,329

2016 128,501 175 5,889 162,313 96,081 157,894 15,518 17,991 584,362 426,468 302,572

Forecast

2017 130,950 175 6,350 160,000 92,500 159,600 15,480 17,700 582,755 423,155 301,4002018 132,150 175 6,700 158,050 89,950 159,900 15,500 17,500 579,925 420,025 300,3002019 132,850 175 7,050 156,050 88,150 160,500 15,600 17,400 577,775 417,275 299,9002020 133,400 175 7,450 154,450 86,900 161,100 15,700 17,300 576,475 415,375 300,0002021 133,950 170 7,750 153,250 85,950 161,800 15,900 17,200 575,970 414,170 300,3002022 134,450 170 8,050 152,200 85,350 162,600 16,100 17,100 576,020 413,420 301,0002023 134,950 170 8,350 151,250 84,900 163,400 16,300 17,000 576,320 412,920 301,7002024 135,400 170 8,650 150,350 84,550 164,100 16,600 16,950 576,770 412,670 302,6002025 135,900 170 9,000 149,450 84,350 164,800 16,850 16,850 577,370 412,570 303,6002026 136,400 165 9,350 148,600 84,150 165,600 17,150 16,750 578,165 412,565 304,7002027 136,900 165 9,700 147,700 84,050 166,400 17,500 16,700 579,115 412,715 305,8002028 137,350 165 10,050 146,750 83,950 167,200 17,800 16,700 579,965 412,765 307,000

2029 137,850 165 10,450 145,800 83,900 168,100 18,150 16,650 581,065 412,965 308,300

2030 138,350 165 10,850 144,950 83,850 168,900 18,500 16,650 582,215 413,315 309,500

2031 138,800 165 11,250 144,200 83,850 169,800 18,850 16,600 583,515 413,715 310,800

2032 139,250 165 11,650 143,450 83,850 170,700 19,250 16,600 584,915 414,215 312,100

2033 139,650 165 12,000 142,650 83,800 171,500 19,600 16,550 585,915 414,415 313,400

2034 140,100 165 12,400 141,750 83,800 172,400 20,000 16,550 587,165 414,765 314,700

2035 140,500 165 12,800 140,850 83,800 173,300 20,450 16,550 588,415 415,115 316,100

2036 140,850 165 13,200 139,950 83,800 174,200 20,850 16,550 589,565 415,365 317,600

2037 141,200 165 13,600 139,000 83,800 175,100 21,300 16,550 590,715 415,615 319,100

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.3% -3.1% N/A -3.6% -4.1% 1.8% 0.2% -2.8% -1.2% -2.1% -0.8%

2016-17 1.9% 0.0% 7.8% -1.4% -3.7% 1.1% -0.2% -1.6% -0.3% -0.8% -0.4%

2016-26 0.6% -0.6% 4.7% -0.9% -1.3% 0.5% 1.0% -0.7% -0.1% -0.3% 0.1%

2016-37 0.4% -0.3% 4.1% -0.7% -0.6% 0.5% 1.5% -0.4% 0.1% -0.1% 0.3%

* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
84

TABLE 31

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED

CALENDAR YEAR

SINGLE 

ENGINE

MULTIENGINE TURBO PROP TURBO JET PISTON TURBINE MENTAL**/ OTHER SPORT** AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical*

2010 133 54 187 1,123 11 125 22 1 221 1,435 1,656

2011E 130 53 195 1,125 10 136 21 1 216 1,456 1,672

2012 126 54 209 1,077 10 149 16 1 206 1,435 1,641

2013 117 54 189 945 9 126 16 1 197 1,260 1,457

2014 120 48 199 1,135 11 132 29 1 210 1,466 1,676

2015 128 40 191 1,063 10 128 15 1 196 1,383 1,578

2016E 128 43 190 1,150 10 131 26 1 208 1,471 1,679

Forecast

2017 126 41 189 1,219 10 133 25 1 203 1,541 1,744

2018 123 41 188 1,270 10 136 25 1 200 1,594 1,794

2019 121 41 187 1,320 10 139 25 2 198 1,646 1,844

2020 119 40 187 1,368 11 142 25 2 197 1,698 1,894

2021 117 40 187 1,411 11 146 26 2 195 1,744 1,939

2022 116 40 187 1,447 11 147 26 2 194 1,781 1,976

2023 115 39 188 1,475 11 150 26 2 193 1,812 2,006

2024 114 39 189 1,500 11 153 27 2 193 1,841 2,035

2025 113 39 192 1,522 12 155 27 2 193 1,869 2,062

2026 111 39 194 1,544 12 158 28 2 192 1,896 2,088

2027 110 39 196 1,567 12 160 28 2 191 1,922 2,113

2028 109 39 199 1,591 12 162 29 2 191 1,952 2,143

2029 108 38 204 1,615 12 164 29 2 190 1,983 2,173

2030 107 38 207 1,636 13 167 30 3 190 2,010 2,200

2031 106 39 212 1,658 13 169 30 3 190 2,038 2,228

2032 105 39 216 1,679 13 172 30 3 190 2,067 2,257

2033 104 39 221 1,697 13 175 31 3 190 2,094 2,284

2034 103 39 226 1,715 13 179 31 3 189 2,120 2,309

2035 102 39 231 1,733 14 182 32 3 189 2,147 2,336

2036 101 39 236 1,753 14 186 32 3 189 2,175 2,365

2037 101 39 243 1,770 14 190 32 3 190 2,204 2,393

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 -0.7% -3.7% 0.2% 0.4% -1.1% 0.8% 2.9% N/A -1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

2016-17 -1.6% -3.8% -0.5% 6.0% -0.8% 1.7% -2.9% 5.7% -2.2% 4.8% 3.9%

2016-26 -1.4% -1.0% 0.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.9% 5.3% -0.8% 2.6% 2.2%

2016-37 -1.1% -0.4% 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 4.5% -0.4% 1.9% 1.7%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012. Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
85

TABLE 32

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE

(In Thousands)

AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

FISCAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACTHistorical

2010 12,658 9,410 14,864 11,716 26,580 1,309 1,298 2,607 51,255 264 244

2011 12,866 9,279 14,528 11,437 25,965 1,319 1,311 2,630 50,740 264 248

2012 12,873 8,994 14,522 11,608 26,130 1,309 1,270 2,579 50,576 264 250

2013 12,776 8,803 14,117 11,688 25,806 1,275 1,276 2,552 49,937 264 252

2014 13,015 8,440 13,979 11,675 25,654 1,270 1,245 2,515 49,624 264 252

2015 13,755 7,895 13,887 11,691 25,578 1,292 1,203 2,495 49,722 264 252

2016E 14,417 7,580 13,904 11,632 25,536 1,317 1,145 2,462 49,995 264 252

Forecast

2017 15,022 7,381 13,936 11,664 25,600 1,318 1,146 2,464 50,466 264 253

2018 15,677 6,983 13,972 11,706 25,678 1,318 1,146 2,464 50,802 264 253

2019 16,338 6,530 14,009 11,747 25,756 1,318 1,146 2,464 51,088 264 253

2020 16,980 6,090 14,046 11,789 25,835 1,318 1,146 2,464 51,369 264 253

2021 17,596 5,687 14,084 11,831 25,915 1,318 1,146 2,464 51,661 264 253

2022 18,093 5,451 14,121 11,873 25,995 1,318 1,146 2,464 52,002 264 253

2023 18,450 5,433 14,159 11,916 26,075 1,318 1,146 2,464 52,422 264 253

2024 18,757 5,483 14,197 11,959 26,156 1,318 1,146 2,464 52,859 264 253

2025 19,067 5,537 14,235 12,003 26,238 1,318 1,146 2,464 53,305 264 253

2026 19,400 5,593 14,273 12,046 26,320 1,318 1,146 2,464 53,775 264 253

2027 19,733 5,649 14,312 12,090 26,402 1,318 1,146 2,464 54,248 264 253

2028 20,067 5,706 14,351 12,135 26,486 1,318 1,146 2,464 54,723 264 253

2029 20,410 5,764 14,390 12,179 26,569 1,318 1,146 2,464 55,208 264 253

2030 20,754 5,824 14,430 12,224 26,654 1,318 1,146 2,464 55,695 264 253

2031 21,099 5,883 14,469 12,270 26,739 1,318 1,146 2,464 56,185 264 253

2032 21,445 5,944 14,509 12,315 26,825 1,318 1,146 2,464 56,677 264 253

2033 21,794 6,005 14,550 12,361 26,911 1,318 1,146 2,464 57,173 264 253

2034 22,153 6,067 14,590 12,408 26,998 1,318 1,146 2,464 57,681 264 253

2035 22,526 6,129 14,631 12,454 27,085 1,318 1,146 2,464 58,205 264 253

2036 22,902 6,193 14,672 12,501 27,174 1,318 1,146 2,464 58,732 264 253

2037 23,272 6,257 14,713 12,549 27,262 1,318 1,146 2,464 59,255 264 253

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 2.2% -3.5% -1.1% -0.1% -0.7% 0.1% -2.1% -0.9% -0.4%

2016-17 4.2% -2.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%

2016-26 3.0% -3.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2016-37 2.3% -0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
86

TABLE 33

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS

(In Thousands)

AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

FISCAL YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical

2010 13,174 9,511 13,864 2,438 38,9872011 13,068 9,349 13,503 2,375 38,2952012 13,045 8,977 13,424 2,332 37,7782013 12,914 8,797 13,048 2,225 36,9842014 13,186 8,390 13,018 2,229 36,8232015 13,948 7,861 13,076 2,286 37,1712016E 14,640 7,672 13,090 2,311 37,713Forecast

2017 15,250 7,457 13,093 2,311 38,1112018 15,902 7,010 13,137 2,311 38,3612019 16,558 6,501 13,176 2,311 38,5472020 17,197 6,005 13,215 2,311 38,7282021 17,809 5,551 13,256 2,311 38,9272022 18,305 5,283 13,302 2,311 39,2022023 18,664 5,258 13,358 2,311 39,5912024 18,972 5,309 13,417 2,311 40,0092025 19,284 5,364 13,476 2,311 40,4362026 19,619 5,422 13,538 2,311 40,8902027 19,954 5,480 13,600 2,311 41,3452028 20,290 5,539 13,662 2,311 41,8032029 20,636 5,599 13,726 2,311 42,2722030 20,982 5,660 13,789 2,311 42,7422031 21,329 5,722 13,853 2,311 43,2152032 21,677 5,785 13,917 2,311 43,6902033 22,028 5,847 13,982 2,311 44,1692034 22,390 5,911 14,048 2,311 44,6602035 22,765 5,977 14,115 2,311 45,1682036 23,143 6,043 14,183 2,311 45,6802037 23,516 6,109 14,251 2,311 46,186Avg Annual Growth2010-16 1.8% -3.5% -1.0% -0.9% -0.6%

2016-17 4.2% -2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%2016-26 3.0% -3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8%2016-37 2.3% -1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
87

TABLE 34

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL YEAR

AIR 

CARRIER

AIR TAXI/ 

COMMUTER

GENERAL 

AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical2010 22,342 8,624 6,550 2,982 40,498

2011 23,432 9,010 6,557 2,228 41,227

2012 23,651 8,932 6,472 1,860 40,915

2013 23,205 8,673 6,440 1,676 39,994

2014 24,267 8,507 6,741 1,830 41,346

2015 25,270 7,847 7,007 1,795 41,918

2016E 26,318 7,787 7,301 1,826 43,231

Forecast

2017 27,273 7,710 7,428 1,826 44,236

2018 27,925 7,533 7,470 1,826 44,755

2019 28,525 7,333 7,494 1,826 45,178

2020 29,114 7,123 7,510 1,826 45,573

2021 29,682 6,944 7,525 1,826 45,977

2022 30,304 6,772 7,549 1,826 46,451

2023 31,023 6,616 7,596 1,826 47,061

2024 31,779 6,458 7,650 1,826 47,714

2025 32,514 6,343 7,709 1,826 48,392

2026 33,180 6,329 7,777 1,826 49,112

2027 33,857 6,313 7,847 1,826 49,843

2028 34,544 6,294 7,918 1,826 50,582

2029 35,248 6,272 7,993 1,826 51,339

2030 35,952 6,257 8,068 1,826 52,103

2031 36,619 6,284 8,145 1,826 52,873

2032 37,292 6,310 8,222 1,826 53,650

2033 37,973 6,336 8,301 1,826 54,436

2034 38,669 6,361 8,382 1,826 55,239

2035 39,373 6,398 8,467 1,826 56,064

2036 40,078 6,441 8,553 1,826 56,900

2037 40,784 6,484 8,640 1,826 57,734

Avg Annual Growth2010-16 2.8% -1.7% 1.8% -7.8% 1.1%2016-17 3.6% -1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3%2016-26 2.3% -2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3%2016-37 2.1% -0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4%Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity