U.S. Department of Transportation

&

Environmental Forecasting

T

h

e

DOT Center for Climate

Ch

a

n

g

e

STRATEGIC PLAN 

for 2001-2005

July 2000
Notice

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship

of the Department of Transportation in the interest of

information exchange. The United States Government

assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof.
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting i 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Section Page

Executive Summary....................................................................................................................... iii 

I. Introduction .........................................................................................................1

A. Vision Statement..................................................................................................................3 

B. Mission Statement................................................................................................................3 

C. Goals and Objectives ...........................................................................................................3 

II. Center Strategies to Meet Objectives ...............................................................5

A. Objective 1: Establish DOT Leadership on Transportation and Climate Change Issues....5 

B. Objective 2: Recommend Transportation Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas 

 Emissions .......................................................................................................7 

C. Objective 3: Prepare for Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Transportation 

 System............................................................................................................9 

D. Objective 4: Participate in International Policy Assessment and Technical 

 Assistance ....................................................................................................11 

E. Objective 5: Ensure Ongoing Leadership, Staffing, and Resources ..................................13 
ii Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.) 

Section Page

III. Implementation...............................................................................................15 

A. Research and Analysis .......................................................................................................16 

B. Policy Assessment and Leadership ....................................................................................16 

C. Outreach, Partnerships, and Communications ...................................................................17 

D. Strategic Planning and Operations.....................................................................................17 

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: 

 A Virtual ONE-DOT Center .......................................................................................................2 

2. Approximate Levels of Investment in Four Strategic Areas of Effort 

FY 2001 – 2002 ...................................................................................................... 15 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting iii 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

In May 1999, Rodney E. Slater, the 13th Secretary of Transportation, announced the creation of 

the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Center for Climate Change and Environmental 

Forecasting (the Center). Recognizing transportation’s relationship to energy consumption and 

climate change, DOT is committed to addressing these serious issues for the nation’s future. 

The earth is warming at an accelerating rate due in part to increasing levels of greenhouse gases 

(GHGs) in the earth’s atmosphere. Transportation is a major source of GHGs producing 

approximately one-quarter of U.S. emissions. Because transportation is the nation’s fastest 

growing sector, transportation’s share of GHG emissions is increasing. Therefore, reductions in 

transportation emissions will be an important component of national approaches to avert climate 

change. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions will certainly affect transportation providers and 

consumers. 

 

Equally important to the mobility of the nation are the effects of climate change that may 

jeopardize portions of our transportation infrastructure. These potential impacts must be 

identified and analyzed so that the DOT can develop strategies to protect and maintain our 

transportation networks, as necessary. 

While the transportation sector will be affected by climate change policies, transportation 

organizations and their customers have often not been major contributors to the dialogue 

regarding effective climate change strategies. Center activities will ensure that transportation 

interests are understood and incorporated into national and international policies regarding 

climate change. 

FY 2001 - 2005 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

Based on these challenges, the Center has identified three goals for its work in FY 2001 – 2005: 

Goal 1: To support the capacity of the DOT to address environmental and climate change 

concerns through an intermodal, transportation systems approach that promotes energy 

efficient and sustainable transportation services that foster livable communities and 

healthy economies. 

Goal 2: To enable the transportation sector to responsibly contribute to national goals and 

commitments for GHG reductions. 

Goal 3: To ensure that the nation’s transportation systems are prepared to address the potential 

long-range effects of global climate change. 
iv Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

These overall goals will be supported through the accomplishment by FY 2005 of the following 

five objectives: 

Objective 1: Establish DOT leadership on transportation and climate change issues. 

Objective 2: Recommend transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. 

Objective 3: Prepare for the potential effects of climate change on the transportation system. 

Objective 4: Participate in international policy assessment and technical assistance. 

Objective 5: Ensure ongoing leadership, staffing, and resources. 

KEY WORK AREAS AND PRIORITY ACTIVITIES

To accomplish these objectives, the Center will pursue work in four cross-cutting areas of effort. 

 Research and Analysis 

More than half of the Center’s efforts will focus on research and analysis necessary to 

provide the Center with the technical understanding, data, and analytical capabilities 

required to develop effective strategies and policies. Six to ten research projects will be 

undertaken annually. Research will continue to focus on transportation strategies to 

reduce GHG emissions, including research ranging from new technologies, to travel 

behavior, to state and local strategies, and the data to support these strategies. In addition, 

research will be initiated in FY 2001 to identify facilities that may be at risk due to the 

potential impacts of climate change. The Center will develop key research partnerships 

with other Federal and non-Federal organizations, to ensure high caliber research 

products and effective use of resources. 

Policy Assessment and Leadership 

The Center will ensure a DOT voice in climate change policy through active participation 

in domestic and international policy activities in coordination with the State Department. 

This will include preparation for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate 

Change activities and related international meetings. The Center will analyze, develop, 

and recommend policies, supported by sound data, that are consistent with DOT goals 

regarding transportation strategies to reduce GHGs, and will promote mechanisms for 

emissions trading that represent transportation interests and concerns. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting v 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communications 

The Center will build DOT capacity and awareness by conducting educational forums for 

DOT managers and staff, and by establishing a clearinghouse for research and policy 

coordination among DOT’s operating administrations. The Center will reach out to state 

and local agencies, environmental advocates, industry, academia, and elected officials to 

gain their perspectives on climate change issues and to build broad and effective alliances 

to address the challenge of climate change. 

Strategic Planning and Operations 

Responding to the challenge of climate change is a dynamic field of endeavor. Our 

scientific understanding of climate change is rapidly evolving, and new technologies are 

advancing daily, often in unanticipated ways. Public views and perspectives reflected by 

elected officials and policymakers are also changing, and participation in the debate about 

climate change strategies is becoming increasingly diverse. To respond to this dynamic 

technological and policy environment, the Center will regularly assess and redirect its 

activities through an ongoing strategic planning process. The Center will develop and 

apply performance measures to evaluate the effectiveness of transportation strategies and 

to guide the selection of future research and policy priorities. 

ORGANIZATION: A ONE-DOT VIRTUAL CENTER

The Center functions as a ONE-DOT, virtual organization, led by a Steering Committee 

comprised of senior-level representatives from nine operating administrations and the Office of 

the Secretary. The Steering Committee is chaired by the Office of Transportation Policy in the 

Office of the Secretary. Operating administrations support the Center’s work through 

contributions of funds, staffing, and technical expertise; and by participating in Center efforts to 

share information, build partnerships, and coordinate activities related to climate change. 

Support from the Research and Special Programs Administration‘s Volpe National 

Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) builds upon the Volpe Center’s work and 

experience with relevant programs across the Department as well as its expertise in climaterelated areas. A cross-modal, virtual structure helps to ensure strong participation throughout the 

DOT, while avoiding unnecessary administrative and institutional costs. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 1 

I. INTRODUCTION 

With the establishment in 1999 of the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) Center for Climate 

Change and Environmental Forecasting (the Center), Secretary Slater recognized the important 

responsibility of the Department to participate in the Nation’s effort to address climate change. 

Because transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Department is 

called upon to develop strategies to reduce transportation-related emissions. Because the effects 

of climate change may jeopardize portions of our transportation infrastructure, the Department is 

called upon to analyze these potential impacts and develop strategies to minimize risks. Because 

the national and international policies developed to address climate change are likely to affect 

transportation providers and consumers, the Department must ensure that the perspectives of our 

stakeholders are heard as these policies are developed. To this end, the Center was created to 

ensure that the Department is able to undertake each of these important responsibilities. 

There is a need for continued focus on greenhouse gases and global warming. The transportation 

sector currently contributes about one-quarter of anthropogenic emissions - and it is one of the 

fastest growing sectors in the U.S. Concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased and could 

almost double by 2100. This problem could be exacerbated by the economic growth we hope to 

see, both in the United States and in rapidly developing countries around the world. 

The Center functions as a ONE-DOT, virtual organization, led by a Steering Committee 

comprised of senior level representatives from nine operating administrations and the Office of 

the Secretary (Figure 1). The Steering Committee is chaired by the Office of Transportation 

Policy in the Office of the Secretary. Operating administrations support the Center’s work 

through contributions of funds, staffing, and technical expertise, and by participating in Center 

efforts to share information, build partnerships, and coordinate activities related to climate 

change. Support from the Research and Special Programs Administration’s (RSPA) Volpe 

National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) builds upon the Volpe Center’s work 

and experience with relevant programs across the Department, as well as its expertise in climaterelated areas. A cross-modal, virtual structure helps to ensure strong participation throughout the 

DOT, while avoiding unnecessary administrative and institutional costs. 

In the Center’s first year, the Steering Committee has built the foundation for this new 

organization. It has articulated the Center’s Mission and Vision, designated Core Staff drawn 

from several of the operating administrations, and initiated a first-year Action Plan. Building on 

this experience, in January 2000 the Steering Committee undertook a strategic planning process 

to define goals and objectives for the years 2001 through 2005. This Strategic Plan establishes a 

clear direction for the Center over the next 5 years, and a framework for ongoing strategic 

planning and refinement. 
2 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

Figure 1: DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: A Virtual 

 ONE-DOT Center

The Center’s Mission and Vision Statement, and a summary of the Center’s three goals and five 

objectives are listed on the following pages. Section II presents a discussion of the context and 

justification for each of the objectives, and the key strategies the Center will employ to achieve 

the objective in the next 5 years. These strategies reflect work in four key areas of effort that cut 

across all objectives: 

• Research and Analysis, 

• Policy Assessment and Leadership, 

• Outreach, Partnerships, and Communications, and 

• Strategic Planning and Operations. 

Section III discusses the approach that will be taken to implement this Strategic Plan over the 

5-year period. 

Steering Committee

 (Nine operating administrations 

and OST)

Core Staff

(Modal FTE Contributions)

Volpe 

Center

(RSPA)

Contract Support

FHWA

Federal Highway 

Administration

 NHTSA

National Highway Traffic 

Safety Administration

MARAD

 Maritime Administration

FAA

Federal Aviation 

Administration

BTS

Bureau of Transportation 

Statistics

RSPA

Research and Special 

Programs Administration

FRA

 Federal Railroad 

 Administration

FTA

 Federal Transit 

Administration

USCG

United States Coast Guard

OST

Office of the Secretary, 

DOT
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 3 

A. VISION STATEMENT

The Center advances timely and effective transportation initiatives to reduce the buildup of 

greenhouse gases. The Center identifies and evaluates strategies and technologies for 

advancement that encourage livable communities by fostering economic development, mobility, 

safety, and social equity; protecting the environment; and ensuring national security. 

B. MISSION STATEMENT

The Center is the focal point in the DOT of technical expertise on transportation and climate 

change. Through strategic research, policy analysis, partnerships, and outreach, the Center 

creates comprehensive and multi-modal approaches to reduce transportation-related greenhouse 

gas emissions. 

C. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

GOAL: To support the capacity of the DOT to address environmental and climate change 

concerns through an intermodal transportation systems approach that promotes energy 

efficient and sustainable transportation services that foster livable communities and 

healthy economies. 

GOAL: To enable the transportation sector to responsibly contribute to national goals and 

commitments for GHG reductions. 

GOAL: To ensure that the nation’s transportation systems are prepared to address the potential 

long-range effects of global climate change. 

OBJECTIVE 1: Establish Leadership on Transportation and Climate Change Issues. 

Establish the Center as a respected and credible resource of information, data, 

technical assistance, and policy guidance regarding transportation and climate 

change issues, serving DOT operating administrations, other Federal agencies, 

Congress, state and local transportation agencies, stakeholders, and the public. 

OBJECTIVE 2: Recommend Transportation Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 

Identify, evaluate, and promote transportation strategies, supported by sound 

data, that will reduce GHG emissions from transportation sources and that 

promote energy efficient and environmentally sound transportation services in 

partnership with DOT operating administrations, the Environmental Protection 

Agency, the Department of Energy, industry, academia, state and local 

governments, and other partners. 
4 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

OBJECTIVE 3: Prepare for the Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Transportation 

System. 

 Develop an understanding of potential long-range effects of global climate 

change on the nation’s transportation systems, and develop strategies to avoid, 

reduce, or mitigate negative effects. 

OBJECTIVE 4: Participate in International Policy Assessment and Technical Assistance. 

Advise the Department of State in the successful development of international 

emissions trading mechanisms and other policies that are consistent with the 

DOT’s strategic goals (mobility, economic development, safety, environmental 

protection, and national security). Provide technical assistance and data to 

support transportation projects undertaken by other countries to promote 

efficient transportation, protect the environment, and reduce GHG emissions. 

OBJECTIVE 5: Ensure Ongoing Leadership, Staffing, and Resources. 

 Ensure that the Center has the ongoing leadership, staffing, and resources 

necessary to effectively achieve its objectives. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 5 

II. CENTER STRATEGIES TO MEET OBJECTIVES 

A. OBJECTIVE 1: Establish DOT Leadership on Transportation and Climate Change Issues. 

Establish the Center as a respected and credible resource of information, 

technical assistance, and policy guidance regarding transportation and 

climate change issues, serving DOT operating administrations, other 

Federal agencies, Congress, state and local transportation agencies, 

stakeholders, and the public. 

1. Discussion

As a newly created DOT organization, the Center is challenged to quickly develop its capacity to 

address the serious work ahead. Climate change research and policy are rapidly evolving, and the 

scientific, technological, and political contexts of decision making are complex. Over the past 

decade, significant proposals have been developed with little participation by the transportation 

sector. To effectively engage in climate change issues, the Center needs to establish itself as the 

national resource regarding transportation and climate change issues. To establish this leadership 

position by 2005, the Center will need to develop its technical and analytic capacity related to 

climate change, building upon the related technological, data system, and policy expertise that 

exists today within the operating administrations of the DOT. Further, it must ensure its role as 

an honest broker of information and data regarding transportation and climate change by 

maintaining high standards of scientific research and demanding accurate, objective analysis. In 

this way, the Center can best help to increase knowledge and understanding of transportation’s 

role in climate change, both within DOT and across the Department’s broad range of 

stakeholders and decision makers, and promote effective solutions consistent with DOT’s goals. 

Where to begin? As a ONE-DOT initiative, the Center’s primary challenge is to tap the expertise 

within each of the operating administrations, build upon this network of knowledge, and 

coordinate research and policy assessment that draws fully upon the experience and technical 

expertise of the DOT family. On the technology front, DOT’s years of experience in promoting 

advanced technologies to achieve fuel efficiency has produced a wealth of expertise that can be 

applied to efforts to improve efficiency to reduce GHG emissions from mobile sources. Efforts 

such as: 

• DOT’s participation in the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), 

• FAA’s work with NASA to reduce aviation exhaust emissions, 

• FTA’s Advanced Bus Technology Program, 

• MARAD’s leadership of the Interagency Marine Fuel Cell Program, and 

• The Advanced Vehicle Program (AVP), the Department’s research program to improve 

efficiency and reduce emissions from medium and heavy duty vehicles 

indicate impressive levels of related technology expertise within the Department. 
6 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

On the policy side: 

• DOT’s Flagship Initiative to support Livable Communities, 

• FHWA’s experience with transportation and air quality related to criteria pollutants, 

• NHTSA’s experience with fleet efficiency standards, 

• FHWA and FTA’s efforts to improve state and local transportation planning process, 

promote livable communities and ensure environmental justice, and 

• FHWA and FTA’s Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program (CMAQ) 

are but a few examples of the Department’s success in meeting environmental goals while 

supporting mobility. RSPA’s Volpe Center has broad experience working with relevant 

programs throughout the Department, and has specific climate-related expertise. The Center has 

an exciting opportunity to leverage this “intellectual capital” within the DOT to address the 

challenge of climate change. 

Mobilizing this expertise will require a new organizational focus on knowledge management and 

communication. The Center will need to develop efficient means of communicating with offices 

throughout the Department, conduct an ongoing inventory of research and policy activities that 

relate to global change, and serve as a clearinghouse of ideas, research products and data, 

information, and expertise. The Center will need to facilitate a Department-wide dialogue on 

climate change issues, research priorities, and promising strategies to reduce transportation GHG 

emissions. Through focused communication and capacity building within the Department, the 

Center will most rapidly develop the foundation for its leadership in the broader community.

2. Strategies

Research and Analysis

• Establish technical expertise on key climate change issues and provide research data, 

information and products to DOT operating administrations, other Federal agencies, 

partners, policymakers, and stakeholders.

Policy Assessment and Leadership

• Analyze policy options and develop recommendations for DOT’s senior management on 

climate change issues. 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication

• Increase awareness within DOT about the relationship between transportation and climate 

change through educational forums, information sharing, and other communications 

strategies. 

• Promote a dialogue on climate change concerns and opportunities with other Federal 

agencies, state and local partners, the private sector, and academia. 

• Develop partnerships with other Federal agencies, private sector entities, and stakeholders 

to jointly pursue common goals. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 7 

Strategic Planning 

• Monitor developments in climate change research, technology, and policy to maintain upto-date information on activity related to climate change. 

• Routinely assess Center priorities to ensure that the Center is most effectively targeting its 

efforts and resources. 

B. OBJECTIVE 2: Recommend Transportation Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas 

Emissions. Identify, evaluate, and promote transportation strategies, 

supported by sound data, that will reduce GHG emissions from 

transportation sources and that promote energy efficient and 

environmentally sound transportation services, in partnership with DOT 

operating administrations, other Federal agencies, industry, academia, state 

and local governments, and other partners. 

1. Discussion

Advancing comprehensive and multi-modal strategies to reduce transportation-related GHG 

emissions is at the heart of the Center’s mission. Yet the objective of developing and 

recommending robust strategies by FY 2005 - strategies that will achieve meaningful reductions 

in emissions, can be effectively implemented, and that are consistent with DOT’s other 

environmental, social, and economic goals - is not an easy task. While there are myriad potential 

strategies under discussion, most require considerable further research or analysis to resolve data, 

technical, political, or economic obstacles. Furthermore, both the scientific understanding of 

climate change, and advancements in technology are changing rapidly. Substantial research 

efforts related to energy efficiency and GHG reduction are well underway, led by other key 

Federal agencies, operating administrations within DOT, private sector companies, and 

academia. This presents a challenge to the Center to stay abreast of a broad array of 

technological and policy developments, and to focus its resources and attention on activities that 

will best inform its work. 

To be able to recommend transportation strategies by FY 2005, the Center must first identify its 

“niche”: On what strategies should the Center focus its analysis? Which strategies will be 

consistent with and support DOT’s environmental, social, and economic goals? How can the 

Center add value to existing research efforts? With which agencies and organizations should the 

Center develop strategic partnerships for research and policy assessment? In 2001, the Center 

will conduct further strategic planning to answer these questions. This will enable the Center to 

target its resources on activities and partnerships most likely to produce results. This planning 

will include an inventory of current research activities of DOT operating administrations, other 

Federal agencies, and other stakeholders; outreach to experts in transportation technology, 

climate change, and energy research to solicit input regarding DOT research and policy priorities; 

and an assessment of potential partnerships. The Center also will develop performance measures 

to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies in reducing GHG emissions. 
8 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

By developing a focused program of research and policy assessment, and by working closely 

with selected partners, the Center will be prepared to develop and recommend sustainable 

strategies and technologies that will reduce GHG emissions while also supporting other DOT 

goals of energy efficiency, livable communities, environmental protection, economic 

development, and mobility. By focusing on “win-win” strategies that support multiple goals, the 

Center can forge alliances across a broad spectrum of constituencies and successfully generate 

support from policymakers, stakeholders, and the general public. 

The Center must make the best use of its limited resources by seeking opportunities to add value 

to existing research initiatives and pursuing research issues of particular concern to DOT’s 

operating administrations and stakeholders. For example, research and development work led by 

the Department of Energy (DOE) in partnership with vehicle manufacturers, the Environmental 

Protection Agency (EPA), and DOT - such as the PNGV research initiative - is making strong 

progress in the development of high-efficiency vehicles. The Center could contribute to the 

success of such technology work by conducting policy research and analysis to identify potential 

policies or regulatory mechanisms that will promote the effective implementation and market 

penetration of high-efficiency vehicles and technologies as they are developed. In addition, the 

Center could promote multi-modal advancements by assessing the applicability of new vehicle 

technologies to rail, aviation, and marine transport. The Center should conduct policy, data, and 

economic research and analysis to identify potential transportation program initiatives, policies, 

or regulatory mechanisms that would promote GHG reductions.

2. Strategies

Research and Analysis

• Conduct, support, and coordinate research to identify and evaluate transportation 

strategies to reduce GHG emissions from transportation sources in partnership with 

selected research partners. Potential research activities to be considered will include, but 

will not be limited to, research in the following areas: 

• Advanced technologies research, 

• Fuel efficiency and alternative fuels, 

• Transportation system efficiency and intermodal strategies, 

• Transportation programs and policies, 

• Travel demand and travel behavior, and 

• State and local strategies. 

Policy Assessment and Leadership

• Analyze policy options and recommend DOT and Federal policies that promote the 

implementation of transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. 

• Participate in the development of administration policies to reduce GHG emissions. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 9 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication 

• Serve as a clearinghouse for research coordination among DOT operating administrations 

by providing data, information, research products, and technical assistance on 

transportation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. 

• Conduct outreach to experts in transportation technology, climate change, and energy 

research to solicit input regarding DOT research and policy priorities, and to explore 

potential partnerships. 

• Develop targeted strategic partnerships with EPA, DOE, industry, or other organizations 

to jointly pursue relevant research. 

Strategic Planning

• Determine strategic research priorities for the Center that make the best use of scarce 

Center resources through an ongoing process of data and information gathering, 

evaluation, and prioritization. 

• Develop performance measures to evaluate the effectiveness of transportation strategies 

in reducing GHGs while supporting other DOT goals. 

C. OBJECTIVE 3: Prepare for Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Transportation 

System. Develop an understanding of potential long-range effects of 

global climate change on the nation’s transportation systems, and develop 

strategies to avoid, reduce, or mitigate negative effects. 

1. Discussion

Most climatologists agree that the world’s climate has changed over the past century, and that 

changes will continue to occur. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected 

significant increases in temperature and sea level over the next 100 years, as well as likely 

increases in precipitation intensity.1

 While our scientific knowledge and understanding of 

climate feedback processes is still being developed, the potential impact of these climate changes 

cannot be ignored. Possible results of changes in temperature, sea levels, and precipitation 

 

1

The IPCC Special Report on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Assessment of Vulnerability (1996) 

states: “... These changes in GHGs and aerosols, taken together, are projected to lead to regional and global changes 

in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—resulting in global changes in soil moisture, an increase in 

global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts in some 

places. Based on the range of sensitivities of climate to changes in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs (IPCC 

1996, WGI) and plausible changes in emissions of GHGs and aerosols (IS92a-f, scenarios that assume no climate 

policies), climate models project that the mean annual global surface temperature will increase by 1–3.5°C by 2100, 

that global mean sea level will rise by 15–95 cm, and that changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of 

precipitation would occur. The average rate of warming probably would be greater than any seen in the past 10,000 

years, although the actual annual to decadal rate would include considerable natural variability, and regional changes 

could differ substantially from the global mean value.” 
10 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

include increased incidences of severe weather, erosion and inundation of coastal areas, changes 

in natural resources, and shifts in ecological zones. While work is underway to reduce the 

anthropogenic contributors to these climate changes, including reductions of CO2 emissions from 

transportation, some level of climate change is expected to continue. 

To date, little work has been done to assess the potential long-range effects of global climate 

change on our nation’s transportation systems, nor to enable transportation agencies to prepare 

for these effects. Over time, incremental changes in coastal areas, fresh water distributions, and 

storm frequency and severity may pose risks to transportation infrastructure. Planning for new 

facilities, management and operation of existing facilities, and transportation planning for future 

transportation systems could be influenced by better information and data about potential climate 

shifts. To meet its responsibilities for national mobility and security, DOT needs to develop an 

understanding of the potential long-range effects of global climate change on the nation’s 

transportation systems. This is a necessary first step to determine the range of possible risks, 

identify priority areas and transportation systems of concern, and ultimately, to develop strategies 

to avoid, reduce, or mitigate negative effects. 

By FY 2005, the Center will have developed this baseline understanding of potential climate 

change impacts on transportation, provided this information to DOT’s operating administrations, 

and will have initiated a cross-modal planning process to prepare our transportation systems to 

respond to potential risks. 

2. Strategies

Research and Analysis

• Conduct, support, and coordinate research on the potential long-range effects of global 

climate change on the nation’s transportation systems in partnership with DOT operating 

administrations, EPA, DOE, industry, academia, and other research partners. 

• Identify transportation systems and facilities that may be at risk due to changes in climate. 

• Develop data collection systems, analysis and planning tools, and methodologies to 

incorporate climate change considerations into transportation systems planning. 

• Begin to identify and evaluate potential strategies to avoid, reduce, or mitigate negative 

effects of climate change on transportation systems and facilities. 

Policy Assessment and Leadership

• Analyze policy options and recommend DOT and Federal policies to avoid, reduce, or 

mitigate potential negative effects of climate change on transportation systems and 

facilities. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 11 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication

• Develop targeted strategic partnerships with EPA, DOE, industry, academia, and other 

organizations to conduct relevant research. 

• Serve as a clearinghouse for research coordination and policy assessment among DOT 

operating administrations by providing data, information, research products, and technical 

assistance on potential impacts of climate change on transportation systems. 

Strategic Planning

• Conduct ongoing strategic planning to define the Center’s long-term role related to 

climate change impacts on the transportation system. 

• Test the viability of impact mitigation as a core Center message with policymakers as a 

focus of Center activities. 

D. OBJECTIVE 4: Participate in International Policy Assessment and Technical Assistance. 

Advise the Department of State in the successful development of 

international emissions trading mechanisms and other policies that are 

consistent with the DOT’s strategic goals (mobility, economic 

development, safety, environmental protection, and national security). 

Provide data and technical assistance to support transportation projects 

undertaken by other countries to promote efficient transportation, protect 

the environment, and reduce GHG emissions. 

1. Discussion

The global nature of climate change inherently requires a global approach to reducing GHG 

emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 

negotiated in 1992, established a framework to develop global strategies to stabilize atmospheric 

GHG concentrations. The Convention includes a wide range of commitments for activities such 

as emissions inventories, reporting, and cooperation on promoting sustainable development, 

technology transfer, adaptation, and scientific research. The Convention, which has been ratified 

by 176 countries, also established a non-binding goal of GHG reductions. The United States 

continues to play a leadership role in advancing understanding of the global impacts of climate 

change, and in forging stronger international agreements on how to respond to this challenge. 

Because transportation emissions account for approximately one-quarter of GHG emissions in 

the United States, the commitments to reductions that are established through international 

negotiations will almost certainly have a profound impact on the transportation sector. The 

Kyoto Protocol, which has been signed but not ratified by the United States Senate, targets an 

emissions reduction of 7 percent below 1990 levels. If each sector were expected to reduce 

emissions in proportion to its contribution to total emissions, this would translate for the 

transportation sector to approximately a 30- to 40-percent reduction below 2010 levels, 

accounting for growth. While proportional targets by sector are not likely, the transportation 

sector can expect – under any agreement – to be challenged to support the achievement of 
12 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

national commitments. This speaks to the clear need for DOT participation in the international 

policy arena. DOT must stay well informed about international policy discussions, and actively 

participate in the development of United States policies and proposals to provide a voice for the 

transportation constituency. 

The proposed strategy for addressing climate change emphasizes a market-based approach to 

limiting future emissions, implemented through a domestic and international emissions trading 

program. A monetized approach to emissions reduction could produce higher fuel prices, 

particularly for high carbon fuels. The DOT needs to assess how different approaches to 

emissions trading could affect the transportation sector, and work with the Department of State to 

design trading proposals that would not undermine our nation’s transportation systems. 

The use of “flexible mechanisms” to achieve emission reductions - by funding projects in other 

countries that would reduce emissions - provides another potential avenue for contribution from 

the transportation sector. The Center needs to examine how joint implementation and clean 

development mechanism approaches could be applied to transportation-related projects in other 

countries, and in what ways the DOT could support these projects through technical and data 

assistance or the facilitation of private-public partnerships. 

The Office of the Secretary and DOT’s individual operating administrations already have been 

participating in several aspects of international discussions. The FAA leads DOT participation in 

the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding emissions from aviation bunker 

fuels. The Maritime Administration and the U.S. Coast Guard are participating in parallel 

discussions regarding marine bunker fuels through the International Maritime Organization 

(IMO). The International Office of FHWA’s Policy Unit is working closely with the Department 

of State, the World Bank, and other agencies regarding international technical assistance and 

development for advanced infrastructure projects. 

In September 1999, DOT hosted a seminar at the Volpe Center to examine transportation-related 

issues associated with both credit for early action and emissions trading. In FY 2000, the Center 

initiated research projects, conducted by Volpe Center staff, on both early action and emissions 

trading. In 1999, Volpe Center staff participated in an interagency effort directed at providing 

technical assistance enabling the government of Argentina to follow through on plans to develop 

a national emissions target. Since 1999, DOT has been represented at sessions of the Conference 

of Parties to the UNFCCC and those of its subsidiary bodies, and has participated in related 

technical meetings. 

These efforts are important steps in developing the Center’s capacity in international policy 

issues. However, if the DOT is to play an influential role in shaping the nation’s policies, the 

Center must devote a substantial level of effort to the international policy arena. This will 

require research and analysis to develop specific policy options supported by sound data, and 

active participation in policy discussions to ensure that transportation considerations are 

understood and incorporated into international negotiations and development activities. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 13 

2. Strategies

Research and Analysis

• Conduct cutting-edge policy research and economic analysis to assess emissions trading 

mechanisms, international policy proposals and related domestic policy proposals (e.g., 

early action), and their potential impacts on transportation. 

• Conduct research to identify and evaluate potential transportation projects in other countries 

that would effectively promote efficient transportation, protect the environment, and reduce 

GHG emissions. 

Policy Assessment and Leadership

• Represent the DOT in UNFCCC, IPCC, and other international policy development 

activities, in coordination with the Department of State. 

• Assess, develop, and recommend emissions trading mechanisms and other policies that will 

support GHG reductions and are consistent with DOT’s strategic goals. 

• Provide technical assistance and data to other countries on transportation-related projects or 

policies to reduce GHG emissions. 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication 

• Establish working relationships with staff and policymakers within the Department of 

State, other Federal agencies, and Congress 

• Conduct outreach to DOT customers and stakeholders regarding policy perspectives and 

concerns 

• Serve as a clearinghouse among DOT operating administrations to provide information, 

data, and recommendations regarding international policy mechanisms. 

Strategic Planning 

• Conduct ongoing strategic planning to define the Center’s priorities related to international 

policies and transportation projects. 

E. OBJECTIVE 5: Ensure Ongoing Leadership, Staffing, and Resources. Ensure that the 

Center has the ongoing leadership, staffing, and resources necessary to 

effectively achieve its objectives. 

1. Discussion

Supporting a viable Center capable of meeting the objectives and strategies outlined above will 

require substantial resources through contributions from operating administrations of funding, 

dedicated staff, leadership from senior management, and participation in Center activities. It is 
14 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

clear that the Center’s work, over the long term, will be critical to the DOT’s ability to support 

transportation goals while contributing to the reduction of GHGs. 

The Center will continue to operate as a virtual, ONE-DOT organization. A virtual 

organizational structure supports the Center’s efforts to promote multi-modal solutions, maintain 

clear and direct ties to operating administrations, and ensure that independent modal efforts to 

reduce GHGs continue, supplemented by Center operations. 

2. Strategies

Research and Analysis

• Develop and disseminate high quality data and research materials that build DOT capacity 

on climate change issues. 

Policy Assessment and Leadership

• Promote the active involvement of each operating administration in the assessment of 

Center policy recommendations. 

• Ensure active senior level participation and leadership from all operating administrations 

through an actively engaged Steering Committee. 

Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication

• Leverage Center resources through strategic partnerships and collaboration in research, 

outreach, and policy assessment. 

• Conduct outreach to interested policymakers and stakeholders to provide information on 

the Center’s research activities, highlighting the need for feasible approaches to GHG 

reduction that are developed in partnership with the transportation community. 

• Develop efficient mechanisms to routinely communicate Center activities throughout DOT 

and to encourage broad participation by staff from all operating administrations. 

Strategic Planning 

• Develop a stable level of support for Center activities through operating administration 

contributions that provide adequate resources for Center objectives. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 15 

III. IMPLEMENTATION 

The strategies outlined in this plan provide a strong framework for action. Success will require 

vigorous effort by DOT to implement these strategies. As noted in this report, to enable the 

Center to pursue its objectives most efficiently, this plan has organized Center strategies under 

four major areas of effort that cut across and support the Center’s objectives: 

• Research and Analysis 

• Policy Assessment and Leadership 

• Outreach, Partnerships, and Communication 

• Strategic Planning and Operations 

More than half of the Center’s resources will be directed to research and analysis activities 

necessary to provide the Center the technical understanding and analysis capabilities required to 

develop effective strategies and policies. Figure 2 illustrates the relative proportion of 

investment by the Center into these four interrelated areas of effort. 

Figure 2. Approximate Levels of Investment in Four Strategic Areas of Effort 

 FY 2001 - 2005 

Outreach, 

Partnerships, and 

Communication 

Strategic Planning 

and Operations 

Policy Assessment 

and Leadership 

Research 

and Analysis 
16 Strategic Plan for 2001 - 2005 

The specific activities to be undertaken in each of these work areas will be identified through the 

development of annual Action Plans that lay out work objectives and milestones of achievement 

for the coming year, consistent with the overall strategic direction of this plan and the resources 

available. In FY 2001 and FY 2002, the Center’s action plans will incorporate the following 

activities: 

A. Research And Analysis 

As a research-focused organization, the Center will invest over half of its resources in research 

and analysis. This priority area is fundamental to the Center’s ability to build the capacity of 

DOT on climate change issues, develop a thorough understanding of climate change impacts, and 

assess the potential effectiveness of transportation strategies to reduce mobile source emissions 

of GHGs. Six to ten projects per year will be conducted on topics such as fuel efficiency, new 

technologies, system efficiency, travel behavior, and state and local strategies. As discussed 

above, the Steering Committee will determine the specific research topics to be pursued each 

year as part of its strategic assessment process, being informed by the input of the operating 

administrations, stakeholders and potential research partners. 

In addition, in FY 2001, the Center will initiate a major research initiative regarding the potential 

impacts of climate change on transportation, including an assessment of the transportation 

facilities and geographic regions throughout the nation that are at most risk due to these effects. 

The Center will develop key research partnerships with other Federal and non-Federal 

organizations to ensure high caliber research products and effective use of resources. 

B. Policy Assessment And Leadership

Most of the Center’s work in policy assessment and leadership will be conducted by Center core 

staff whose time is contributed by the operating administrations, and by other Departmental 

personnel. This work will be supplemented by policy analysis and draft document review by 

experts in the field from the Volpe Center and contracting consultants. This analysis will support 

the Center in assessing and recommending policies that will support the development and 

implementation of effective transportation strategies to reduce GHGs. 

Work in this area also will include in-depth participation in international and domestic policy 

assessment efforts in cooperation with the Department of State and other Federal partners, 

including preparation for and participation in Sessions of the Conference of Parties to the 

UNFCCC and related activities. A primary focus of policy assessment over the next 2 years will 

be on emissions trading mechanisms, to ensure that these mechanisms are designed with an 

understanding of the impacts on the transportation sector. 

Finally, the Center will consider providing technical assistance activities to developing and 

developed countries regarding strategies to reduce GHG emissions. This may include project 

level support to enable the implementation of promising transportation-related projects through 

joint implementation or clean development mechanisms. 
DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 17 

C. Outreach, Partnerships, and Communications 

To be successful in meeting its objectives, the Center must be actively engaged in education and 

outreach activities, both within DOT and with the Department’s partners and stakeholders. The 

Center will invest approximately one-quarter of its resources to this area. The Center will work 

to build capacity within DOT by providing education forums, information, and technical support 

to DOT staff. Six to ten DOT forums will be held annually for the DOT community, featuring 

speakers from other Federal Agencies, research organizations, industry, and environmental 

groups. In FY 2001, the Center will initiate a clearinghouse to coordinate information and 

activities on climate change research and policy assessment. 

To promote understanding of transportation and climate change issues among DOT stakeholders, 

the Center will develop and implement a communications strategy based on an in-depth analysis 

of the Center’s priority targeted audiences, the perspectives and concerns of each constituency, 

and the most effective mechanisms for promoting dialogue with these stakeholder groups. 

Communications with the general public, industry, state and local governments and planning 

organizations, other Federal agencies, academia, research organizations, advocacy groups, and 

Congress will be assessed. This program of targeted outreach will include further development 

and management of the Center’s web site; sponsorship of workshops, conferences, and special 

events; participation in key events sponsored by other organizations; and the design and 

dissemination of outreach and educational materials in a variety of formats. 

Further, the Center will undertake the strategic development of partnerships. In FY 2001, the 

Center will engage in an analysis of the broad range of opportunities available to DOT to 

determine how the Center should focus its partnership development efforts. The Center will 

initiate talks with potential partners to share information about the Center’s activities and 

interests, and to learn more about the efforts of other organizations. This initial period of 

information gathering and assessment will enable the Center to refine its plans for partnership 

development. Partnership development activities will focus in large part on the identification of 

feasible research partnerships to advance the Center’s research objectives. 

D. Strategic Planning and Operations

Finally, the Center will pursue an ongoing process of assessment and redirection to keep pace 

with changes in technology, policy developments, and the Center’s own expanding expertise. 

The Center will develop performance measures to evaluate the effectiveness of transportation 

strategies and to guide the selection of future research and policy priorities.