# UNITED

STATES ENVIRONMENTAL

PROTECTION

AGENCY REGION

7 MEMORANDUM

11201 Renner Boulevard Lenexa,

Kansas

66219 

# DEC

1 6

2014 SUBJECT:

Technical

Support Document

for Attainment Redesignation

for Missouri

Portion

of the St. Louis MO-IL

Area;

1997 8-Hour

Ozone Standard

and Associated Maintenance

Plan FROM:

Lachala

Kem p/l}\ Air Planning



# ~d Development

Branch TO: EPA-R07-0AR-2014-0900 THRU:

Joshua

Tapp, Branch

Chief, AWMD

/ APDB Michael

Jay

, Section

Chief,

A WMD

/ APDB

/ AtPS 

# I. Introduction The purpose

of this document

is

to provide

a technical

summary

of the EPA Region

7 review

of the emissions inventories

submitted

with

the Redesignation

Request

and Maintenance

Plan

for

the Missouri

portion

of the

St. Louis

1997 Ozone Nonattainment

Area

by

the Missouri Department

of Natural Resources

(MDNR)

. This review

does

not determine

the approvability

of the redesignation request

or maintenance

plan

. Emissions inventories

in

a redesignation

request

are used

to show permanent

and enforceable

emission reductions

between

the year

the area

was designated

as

a nonattainment

area

and

the year

the area came

into attainment.

In



# a maintenance

plan,

the emissions inventories

are used

to reflect

the emissions

during

the time

the area came

into attainment

and

are then projected

to show

that

the area

will remain

in attainment. MDNR submitted

the Redesignation

Demonstration

and Maintenance

Plan

for

the Missouri Portion

ofthe

St. Louis Nonattainment

Area

for

the 1997 Ozone NAAQS

to EPA

on November

3, 2011. In April of2014,

MDNR

revised

their submittal

plan document

to include supplemental

information

to address

several

issues.

The following

is

a list

to describe

the changes

to the original

plan submitted

in November

2011. • The future

year emissions projections

in the maintenance

plan

has been changed

from

2022

to 2025

. All references

l to emissions

in 2022 throughout

the plan

and appendic'

have

been revised to refer

to emissions

in the new future

year (2025)

.

Printed

on Recycled Paper•Emissionsinventoriesandappendiceshavebeenupdatedtoaccountforrecentchanges:AppendixHwascreatedtosupplytheEmissionInventoriesfortheIllinoisportionofthenonattainmentarea;Thepointsourceemissionsinventoriesfortheinterimyear(2017)havebeenadjustedsothattheCleanAirInterstateRule(CAIR)isthecontrolstrategyusedtocontrolelectricgeneratingunits'emissionsasopposedtotheCrossStateAirPollutionRule(CSAPR).Thenewfutureyearintheplan(2025)alsoreliesonCAIRtocontroltheseemissions.Theplanandappendiceshavebeenupdatedtoaccuratelycharacterizealloftheserevisions;Theon-roadmobilesourceinventoriesincludedforthebaseyear(2008)andinterimyear(2017)oftheplanhavebeenrevisedtoincorporatethecurrentinspection/maintenance(liM)programinplaceintheSt.Louisarea.ForVOCemissions,theStageIIrefuelingemissionshavebeenremovedfromthemobilesourceinventoryandaddedtotheareasourceinventory.Fortheinterimyear(2017)emissionsinventory,theStageIIcontrolprogramwasremovedfromthemobilemodelincalculatingtheStageIIareasourceemissionstoaccountforacurrentSIPdevelopmenttoremovetheserequirementsasaresultofwidespreaduseofon-boardvaporrecoveryequipment.Thenewfutureyear(2025)emissionsinventoryintheplanalsoaccountsfortheremovalofStageIIcontrolsandincorporatestheappropriateI/Minputinthemobilemodel.Theplanandappendiceshavebeenupdatedtoaccuratelycharacterizealloftheserevisions;Thenon-roadsourceemissionsinventoriesforthebaseyear(2008)andinterimyear(2017)willberevisedtoaccountforerrorsthatwerediscoveredintheinputstotheNONROADmodelusedtodeveloptheinventories.Additionally,itwasdiscoveredthataircrafttakeoffandlandingemissionswerenotproperlyaccountedforintheoriginalplanforthebaseyear(2008)andinterimyear(2017),andrevisionshavebeenmadetocorrectlyaddtheseemissionstotheseinventoriesincludedintheplan.Inthisplan,nonroadsourceNOxemissionsarelowerthanthe2011planbecausetheAirProgramusedthenewerversionofthe2008NationalEmissionsInventory(NEIversion3)inthisplan.CommercialmarineNOxemissionsdecreasedwhencomparedtothe2011planbecausetheywerefoundtobeoverestimatedinthe2008NEIversion2.Thenewfutureyear(2025)non-roademissionsinventoryincludedinthisdocumentwascalculatedusingtheappropriatemodelinginputsandproperlyaccountsforaircrafttakeoffsandlandings.Theplanandappendiceshavebeenupdatedtoaccuratelycharacterizealloftheserevtswns.MDNRsubmittedadditionalclarifyinginformationthatupdatedthepointsourceemissioninventoryprojectionsfor2017and2025usingCross-StateAirPollutionRule(CSAPR)forthecontrolmeasurestrategyonAprilof2014.•OnMay21,2012,EPArevokedthe19978-hourozonestandardforthepurposesofTransportationConformity[77FR30160].6ofthePlanwasrevisedaccordingly.•Minorchangestoreferencesandnarrativelanguagerevisionshavebeenmadethroughouttheplanandappendicestoaddclarity,fixtypographicalerrors,andtoensuretheplanandappendicesarereflectiveoftherevisionsthathavebeenmade.2ThisdocumentprovidesatechnicalsummaryoftheEPARegion7reviewofMNDR'sinventorysubmittalincludingtheupdatedsupplementalemissionsinventoriessubmittedApril2014titled,"Supplement/RevisiontotheRedesignationDemonstrationandMaintenancePlanfortheMissouriportionoftheSt.LouisNonattainmentAreaforthe19978-HourGroundlevelOzoneNationalAmbientAirQualityStandard"bytheMissouriDepartmentofNaturalResources(MDNR).II.EmissionsInventoriesforRedesignationRequest(2002BaseYearInventory)Inaredesignationrequest,emissionsinventoriesareusedtosupporttheStatesclaimthattheareahaspermanentandenforceableemissionsreductions.Inordertodothis,thestateshouldestimatethepercentreduction(fromtheyearthatwasusedtodeterminethedesignvaluefordesignationandclassification)achievedfromfederalandstatecontrolmeasures;thisisusuallytermedasthe"baseyear"inventory.ThebaseyearinventorycontainsozoneprecursorpollutantssuchasNOx(nitrogenoxides)andVOC(volatileorganiccompounds)emissions.Thissectionwilldiscussthe2002NonattainmentYearInventorythatwasusedintheSt.LouisRedesignationRequestandMaintenancePlansubmittedbyMDNR.TheSt.Louisportionofthebi-statenonattainmentareaconsistsofFranklin,Jefferson,St.Charles,St.LouisCountyandSt.LouisCity.The2002baseyearinventoryfromthesecountiesincludeemissionsfrompoint,area,on-roadmobileandnon-roademissions.OnMay31,2007,EPAapprovedMissouri's2002BaseYearInventoryfortheMissouriPortionoftheSt.LouisOzoneNonattainmentarea(72FR30272).Summarytablesofthe2002anthropogenicemissionsinventoryfortheSt.LouisozonenonattainmentareamaybefoundinAppendixAoftheMissourisubmittalSIPsubmittalcalled,"RedesignationDemonstrationandMaintenancePlanfortheMissouriPortionoftheSt.LouisNonattainmentAreaforthe19978-HourGroundLevelOzoneNationalAmbientAirQualityStandard".III.EmissionsInventoriesforMaintenancePlan2008AttainmentYearInventoryandMaintenancePlanBaseYearInventoryTheinventoryusedfortheyearofattainmentiscalledtheAttainmentYearInventoryandalsoisreferredtoastheMaintenancePlanBaseYearInventory.Thisinventoryisusedasthebasisfortheprojectedinventoriesforcomparisontoshowtheareawillremaininattainment.TheSt.Louisarea2008baseyearinventorycontainsground-levelozoneprecursor(NOxandVOC)emissions.Thissectionwilldiscussthe2008AttainmentYearInventorythatwasusedintheSt.LouisRedesignationRequestandMaintenancePlansubmittedbyMDNR.The2008attainmentyearinventoryincludespoint,area,on-roadmobile,andoff-roadmobilesourcecategoriesforNOxandVOC.MDNRutilizedtwomobileinventoriesforthe2008yearbecauseitwasrequiredtoupdatetheoldmobilemodel,Mobile6,tothenewermobilemodelcalled,MotorVehicleEmissionsSimulator(MOVES).Thefirst2008inventoryisfortheattainmentyearwhichwasdevelopedusingMobile6.2forthemobilesourcesandthesecond2008inventoryisforthemaintenancebaseyearwhichwasdevelopedusingMOVESanditisusedtocomparewithfutureyearinventories(2017,2025).Detailsofthe2008base/attainmentyearannualemissionsinventoryfortheMissourisideofthenonattainmentareaisincludedinAppendixEoftheMissouriSubmittalandinAppendixBforozoneseasonemissions.Illinoishasanapprovedmaintenanceplanfortheirportionofthenonattainmentareaunderthe1997ozoneNAAQS,whichwasapprovedbyEPAonJune12,2012(77FR34819).3PointSourceEPAguidanceforemissionsinventorydevelopmentprovidesthatactualemissionsshouldbeusedforpurposesofthebaseyearinventory.Forthe2008pointsources,MDNRusedozoneseasondayemissionscalculatedontheEmissionsInventoryQuestionnaireorEIQform2.0Z,OzoneSeasonInformation.Thefacility-reportedmaximumdailythroughputduringtheozoneseasonandthisismultipliedbythepollutantemissionfactorandreducedbycontroldevicetoreachtheozoneseasondailyemissions.NonpointForthe2008Nonpointemissions,ozoneseasondayemissionswerecalculatedfromEmissionsModelingClearinghouse(EMCH)temporalallocationprofilesthatareStandardClassificationCodes(SCC)-specific.OzoneseasondayemissionsaretypicalofaTuesdayinJuly.DetailedinformationcanbefoundintheMissourisubmittalinAppendixB-7forthetemporalallocationmethodtables,AppendixB-7outlinesthisprocedureforareasources.Non-roadozoneseasondayemissionsmaybefoundintheMissourisubmittalinAppendixB-6.NonroadFor2008Nonroadmobilesources,theMDNRgeneratedtheemissionsusingEPA'sNONROADmodel.SincecommercialmarinevesselsandlocomotiveemissionsarenotpartoftheNONROADmodel,theywerecalculatedoutsideofthemodelandtransferredtotheNonroadsectionoftheinventoryfromtheNEI.OnroadThe2008OnroadMobilesourceinventorywasdevelopedusingEPA'shighwaymobilesourceemissionsmodelMOVESforthemaintenanceplanbaseyear.However,the2002nonattainmentbaseyearwasdevelopedbeforetherequirementtoupdatethemodelfrommobile-6toMOVESandthus,wasdevelopedutilizingMobile-6.Inordertokeepthecomparisononequalterms,MDNRcreatedtwodifferentmobilemodelinginventoriesfor2008utilizingbothmodels,Mobile-6.2andMOVESwithallothersourcecategoriesremainingthesame.Forthe2008attainmentyearinventory,itwasdevelopedusingMobile6.2tocomparewiththe2002nonattainmentbaseyear.Thesecond2008mobileinventorywasdevelopedutilizingMOVEStoestablishamaintenancebaseyearforcomparisontothefuture2017and2025MOVESbasedfutureyearinventories.ThiswasdoneforasmoothtransitiontotheupdatedmodelandtopreventcomparingaMOVESversionof2008attainmentyearwiththeMobile-6versionofthe2002nonattainmentbaseyearinventory.EPARegion7staffreviewedthefilesandtheemissionresultsprovidedbyMDNRandfoundthemtobeacceptable.AdditionaldetailsaboutthedevelopmentoftheMOVES-based2008on-roadmobileemissionsinventoriesarelocatedinAppendixBoftheMissouriSIPsubmittalcalled,"RedesignationDemonstrationandMaintenancePlanfortheMissouriPortionoftheSt.LouisNonattainmentAreaforthe19978-HourGroundLevelOzoneNationalAmbientAirQualityStandard".42017

and 2025 Projection

Emission Inventories Projection inventories

are used

to show

that

the area

will remain

in attainment.

A maintenance plan must

contain

a demonstration

that

the levels

of emissions

projected

for

the ten-year

period following redesignation

are sufficient

to maintain

the NAAQS. Emissions

for projection

years

are compared

to emissions

levels

in the 2008

base

year

to determine

if those emissions

levels

are sufficient to maintain

the NAAQS

during

this ten-year

period. MDNR included

NOx

and VOC emissions

for their projection

year inventories.

They

used

2017 and 2025 emission projections

for

the interim

and maintenance

plan

end year, respectively.

The projected

point,

area

and mobile

source emissions

on

the Missouri

side

of the nonattainment

area

for 2025

were estimated

using

the 2008

base

year inventory.

Point source

and nonpoint

sources

were developed

using growth

factors

to project

the future

year inventory.

EPA's Nonroad

Model

and EPA's onroad

mobile

model, MOVES

were utilized

to project

mobile

source

future inventories.

For EGU facilities,

emissions

for

the future

year

were projected

based

on permanent

and enforceable

controls

for each source. Point Source The projected

point source emissions

on the Missouri

side

of the nonattainment

area

for 2025 were estimated

using

the 2008

base

year inventory

and

a growth

factor

was applied.

Growth

factors were created

from

the EGAS

model

(http:

// www.epa.gov

/ ttnecasl/egas5.htm)

using economic

growth projections

from

the Policy Insight®

Model

for Regional Economic

Model,

Inc. (REMI). For

the following

EGU facilities

, Ameren's

Labadie

, Meramec,

Rush Island,

and Sioux

, the actual regulatory

ozone

season

(May

- September)

NOx emissions

from

these Ameren

units

from 2008- 2011

were obtained

from

the Clean

Air Market Division

database

and averaged

to obtain

a yearly regulatory

ozone

season average

ofNOx emissions

over these

four years.

This yearly regulatory

ozone season average

ofNOx emissions

over these

four years

were

then divided

by

153

(the number

of days

in the regulatory

ozone

season

to obtain

the projected

average

ozone

season

day emissions

in 2025

for these

four facilities.

This

four

year average

of regulatory

ozone

season

NOx emissions

was determined to

be representative

of the projected

NOx emissions

from

these facilities

in 2025 because

of CAIR.

In 2015,

their allowances

from CAIR

drop significantly,

but they

will likely

have

some banked allowances allowing

them

to hold

their ozone

season

NOx emissions

steady

for

the first several

years

after

the 2015 CAIR allocations

take effect.

More information

can

be found

in Appendix

D

of Missouri's

submittal called, "Redesignation

Demonstration

and Maintenance

Plan

for

the Missouri

Portion

of the

St. Louis Nonattainment

Area

for

the 1997 8-Hour

Ozone National

Ambient

Air Quality Standard". Nonpoint/Area

The

area source emissions

in the Missouri

portion

of the

St. Louis nonattainment

area

for 2025 were estimated

using

the 2008

base

year inventory

and growth

factors appropriate

for each source category.

Growth

factors

were created

from

the EGAS

model

( http:

// www

.epa

. gov

/ ttnecas

ll egas5

. h tm

) using economic

growth projections

from

the Policy Insight®

Model

for Regional Economic

Model

, Inc (REMI).

5AreasourceStageIIrefuelingemissionsfor2025werecalculatedwithMOVESandassumedthatStageIIcontrolswouldnolongerberequiredintheSt.Louisareaby2025.MDNRsubmittedaSIPrevisiontoremoveStageIIrequirementsasaresultofwidespreaduseofon-boardvaporrecoverysystems,anditisexpectedthatStageIIcontrolsonrefuelingstationsintheMissouriportionoftheSt.LouisnonattainmentareawillbecompletelyremovedbyDecember31,2015.NonroadNonroadsourceNOxandVOCemissionsfor2008and2025weredevelopedusingU.S.EPA'sNONROADmodel.MDNR'snonroadmobilesourceemissionsinventoryalsoincludesemissionsfromaircrafttakeoffsandlandings,commercialmarinevessels,andlocomotiveswhicharenotincludedintheNONROADmodel.Forthesethreecategories,emissionsweregrownfromtheyear2008tothefutureyear2025usingEGASgrowthfactorsforbothsidesofthenonattainmentarea.Additionaldetailsregardingthedevelopmentofthe2008and2025non-roadsourceemissionsinventoryfortheMissourisideofthenonattainmentcanbefoundinAppendixBfor2008andinAppendixDfor2025oftheMissouriPlan.OnroadOnroadmobileprojectionemissionsfor2017and2025werecalculatedfromMOVESproducedmodelingasperformedbyMDNR.MDNRrantheMOVESmodelinan"inventorymode"tocalculateemissionstotalsforeachcountyinthenonattainmentareaandusedVMTdatafromEast-WestGatewayCouncilofGovernmentincoordinationwiththeSt.LouisTransportationConformityInteragencyConsultationGroup.ForVOCemissions,refuelingemissionshavebeenremovedfromthemobilesourceinventoryandaddedtotheareasourceinventory.Fortheinterimyear(2017)andthefutureyear(2025)emissionsinventory,theStageIIcontrolprogramwasremovedfromthemobilemodelincalculatingtheStageIIareasourceemissionstoaccountforacurrentSIPrevisiontoremovetheserequirementsasaresultofwidespreaduseofon-boardvaporrecoveryequipment.AdditionaldetailsaboutthedevelopmentoftheMOVES-based2008and2025onroadmobileemissionsinventoriesfortheMissourisideofthenonattainmentareaarelocatedinAppendixBfor2008andAppendixDfor2025intheMissourisubmittal.IV.ConclusionEPARegion7staffreviewedthemethodologiesforpreparingtheseemissionsinventoriesprovidedbyMDNRand,forthereasonsstatedabove,foundthemtobeacceptableandapprovableundersection172(c)(3)oftheCleanAirAct.TechnicalSupportDocument(TSD)fortheRedesignationRequestandMaintenancePlanfortheStLouis,Missoup1997OzoneNonattainmentAreaISubmittedMarch2014bytheMissouriDepartmentofNaturalResourcesTSDPreparedbyStevenBrown,U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Region7,October28,20146