FAA Aerospace Forecast

Fiscal Years 2013-2033

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

Table of Contents

............................................................................................................................................................................................1

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS........................................................................................................................................................1

REVIEW OF 2012..................................................................................................................................................................3

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ........................................................................................................................................................5

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ..................................................................................................................................................8

COMMERCIAL AVIATION........................................................................................................................................................10

World Travel Demand........................................................................................................................................................10

U.S. Travel Demand ...........................................................................................................................................................15

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger................................................................................................................................................. 16

Domestic Passenger Markets ............................................................................................................................................................ 19

International Passenger Markets ...................................................................................................................................................... 22

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo........................................................................................................................................................ 24

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region...................................................................................................................... 25

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2012 Financial Results .........................................................................................................25

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2012 Aircraft Fleets..............................................................................................................27

GENERAL AVIATION ...............................................................................................................................................................30

FAA WORKLOAD.....................................................................................................................................................................32

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................36

ECONOMIC FORECASTS..........................................................................................................................................................38

World Economy..................................................................................................................................................................43

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS.......................................................................................................................45

Commercial Aviation Forecasts..........................................................................................................................................45

Domestic Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................. 47

International Markets........................................................................................................................................................................ 51

Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..................................................................................................................................................57

General Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................58

FAA Workload Forecasts....................................................................................................................................................62

FAA and Contract Towers.................................................................................................................................................................. 62

En-route Centers ............................................................................................................................................................................... 63

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS.......................................................................................................................................65

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................................................................67

OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................67

REVIEW OF 2012 .......................................................................................................................................................................68

GLOBAL FORECAST......................................................................................................................................................................68

SUBORBITAL REUSABLE VEHICLES FORECAST ....................................................................................................................................69

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS ..................................................................................................................................................72

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS...........................................................................................................75

SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................................................75

ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................................80

Passengers.........................................................................................................................................................................80

Revenue Passenger Miles...................................................................................................................................................81

Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................................................................81

Load Factor........................................................................................................................................................................82

Yield ...................................................................................................................................................................................83

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY...........................................................................................................................88
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................90

APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES .......................................................................................................................................92
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

1

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

2013-2033

Since the beginning of the century, the commercial air carrier industry has suffered several 

major shocks that have led to reduced demand for air travel. These shocks include the terror 

attacks of September 11, skyrocketing prices for fuel, debt restructuring in Europe and the 

United States (U.S.), and a global recession. To manage this period of extreme volatility, air 

carriers have fine-tuned their business models with the aim of minimizing financial losses by

lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes and grounding older, less fuel efficient 

aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers have initiated new services that customers 

are willing to purchase. Carriers have also started charging separately for services that were

historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The capacity discipline exhibited by carriers and their

focus on additional revenue streams bolstered the industry to profitability in 2012 for the third 

consecutive year. Going into the next decade, there is cautious optimism that the industry has 

been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most serious economic downturn and slow recovery in 

recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, demand for 

aviation is driven by economic activity. As the economy returns to growth, so will aviation. The 

2013 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 

2.2 percent per year, compared to last year’s forecast growth of 2.6 percent per year. After 

another year of slow or no growth this year, growth over the next five years will be slightly 

higher than the long run rate as we assume the U.S. economy grows at a faster rate. This 

delayed trajectory represents the downward adjustments of the overall economy, here in the 

U.S. and abroad, and of the aviation sector response. One of the many factors influencing the 

delayed recovery is the uncertainty that surrounds the U.S. and European economies. The 

latter, primarily those belonging to the Euro area, have been hit hard by the pressure for fiscal 

austerity. Combined with the slow pace of these economies, debt restructuring pulled the 

European economy into recession in early 2012, where it continues to languish today. This has 

not helped the pace of U.S. economic growth given the importance of its trade with Europe. 

Despite this and the ambiguity surrounding its own fiscal imbalances, the U.S. economy has 

managed to avoid a double dip recession and trudges along the path of slow recovery.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is 

both domestically and internationally – is projected to shrink by 0.1 percent this year after

posting a 0.1 percent increase in 2012; it will then grow at an average annual rate of 

2.9 percent through 2033. In the domestic market, capacity growth hovers around zero for the 

second year in a row. Domestic capacity is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1

percent for the remainder of the forecast period. Domestic mainline carrier capacity will not 

increase in 2013 after increasing 0.7 percent in 2012. For the regional carriers, domestic 

capacity growth is also projected to be flat in 2013 after declining 4.3 percent in 2012. 

Commercial air carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to increase 0.7

percent in 2013, and then grow at an average of 2.2 percent per year through 2033; domestic 

enplanements in 2013 will decrease 0.1 percent, and then grow at an average annual rate of 

2.0 percent for the remainder of the forecast.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

2

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to increase by 0.4 seats in FY 2013 to 124.3

seats. Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to stay relatively flat as 

network carriers1 continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat 

aircraft continues to increase, we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, 

increasing the average regional aircraft size in 2013 by 0.5 seats to 57.7 seats per mile. 

Passenger trip length in domestic markets will increase by 7.2 miles during the same period.

Although the slow growth of the U.S. economy and the European recession has dampened the 

near term prospects for general aviation, the long-term outlook remains favorable. We see 

growth in business aviation demand over the long term driven by a growing U.S. and world 

economy especially in the turbo jet, turboprop and turbine rotorcraft markets. As the fleet 

grows, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.5

percent a year through 2033.

The global economy is facing a prospect of slow growth in 2013 with continued recession in 

the first part of the year in Europe which has slowed the demand for air travel. Profitability for

U.S. carriers will hinge on a stable environment for fuel prices, an increase in demand for 

corporate air travel, maintaining the ability to pass along fare increases to leisure travelers, and 

the continual generation of ancillary revenues. To navigate this volatile operating environment, 

mainline carriers will continue to drive down costs by better matching flight frequencies and/or 

aircraft gauge with demand, delaying deliveries of newer aircraft and/or grounding older 

aircraft, along with pressuring regional affiliates to accept lower fees for contract flying. Over 

the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by 

increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over 

the long term a growing U.S. economy.

 1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, United-Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, and U.S. Airways.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

3

REVIEW OF 2012

Although the year 2012 began with a lot of hope for an economic recovery, it was primarily 

characterized as a year of full scale uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty in the operating 

environment, the changes that U.S. carriers have made since the start of the global recession in

2008 helped the industry to make a profit for the third year in a row. Many industry 

professionals see these changes as providing traction towards profitability, even during future 

periods of uncertainty. The biggest change that U.S. passenger airlines have made is the shift 

in focus from increasing market share to one of boosting shareholder return on investment. The 

U.S. airline industry has become more nimble; that is, adjusting capacity to seize opportunities 

or contracting in times of economic distress. As a result, it expanded its capacity by 0.1 percent 

in 2012 while positioning itself for a reduction of 0.1 percent this year in anticipation of the 

uncertain economic environment. Even during times of economic instability and distress, the 

industry has found ways to increase revenue. For example, air carriers are charging fees for

services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for services that were 

not previously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these 

recent initiatives gives reason for optimism as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers

combined) posted profits for the third consecutive year in 2012. 

Demand for air travel in 2012 grew slowly following a relatively strong 2011 that was 

highlighted by improving consumer confidence and falling unemployment, despite continuing 

pressure of debt restructuring in Europe and the U.S. In 20122 system revenue passenger 

miles increased 0.9 percent as enplanements increased 0.8 percent. Commercial air carrier 

domestic enplanements were up 0.6 percent while international enplanements were up 2.4

percent. The system-wide load factor continued to rise to 82.7 percent (up 0.7 points from 

2011). Domestic enplanement market share continued to rise for low-cost carriers in 2012

while network and “other” carrier and regional carrier share decreased. Domestic low cost 

carrier enplanement share increased by 0.7 points to 29.1 percent while the share of network 

and “other” carriers fell by 0.2 points to 46.6 percent and regional carrier share dropped by 0.6 

points to 24.3 percent.

Capacity restraint by the carriers as helped the system wide real yield to increase by 2.4

percent in 2012. Data for FY 2012 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined 

operating profit of $6.0 billion (compared to a $5.7 billion operating profit for FY2011). The 

network carriers reported combined operating profits of $4.2 billion while the low cost carriers 

reported combined operating profits of $1.3 billion, with four out of the five network carriers and

seven of the nine low cost carriers posting profits. 

The general aviation market showed an improvement especially by robust contributions from 

the agricultural airplane segment of turboprops and strong growth in the rotorcraft sector. 

When revised data became available about the agricultural aircraft, the recovery was tracked 

back to 2011, which continued in calendar year (CY) 2012, which saw deliveries post a 3.3 

 2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are 

on a fiscal year (FY) basis (October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international 

economic and world traffic and financial data are on a calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

4

percent increase. The new data revealed the U.S. manufacturer shipments in fact increased

by 9.8 percent in 2011, while U.S. billings initially increased by 5.0 percent in 2011, but 

recorded a decline of 3.0 percent in 2012. Single engine piston shipments recovered from 

their negative trend to a 0.9 percent increase over the previous year. However, due to 

declines in the multi-engine category, total piston aircraft shipments by U.S. manufacturers 

were relatively flat, with an estimated increase of 0.3 percent. Turbine aircraft shipments 

(turboprop and business jets) by U.S. manufacturers increased by 6.2 percent in CY 2012

compared to CY 2011. Turboprop shipments, which increased by 16.2 percent in 2012 

accounted for the growth in turbine shipments, as there was a 4.7 percent decline in shipments 

of business jets, which had ceased the previous declining trend in turbine aircraft shipments in 

2011. This was a reflection of the fragile nature of the economic recovery, even though there 

are promising technological developments for the future the pace of the decline has slowed. 

General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports was in line with the shipments with 

an increase of 0.6 percent in 2012, driven by local operations.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers decreased for the 5th consecutive year, falling 0.3

percent, as activity declines in the air taxi and military categories offset increases in air carrier and 

general aviation activity. Large hub facilities saw activity fall by 0.8 percent, while medium hubs 

posted a 3.8 percent decline. Activity at small and non-hub airports rose by 0.5 percent, the first 

increase in activity since FY 2007. Although the overall number of flights fell, FAA’s workload did

not. With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix 

changes, and carriers consolidating operations in their large hubs, we expect increased activity 

growth which has the potential to increase controller workload. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

5

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Following an unprecedented fiscal stimulus (i.e., American Recovery and Reinvestment Act or 

ARRA) of over $800 billion that took place in 2009, with over half of it being spent during 2010,

the U.S. economy was left to its own fundamentals in 2011 and 2012. The economy grew at an 

average annual rate of 1.8 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2011 and 2.2 percent in FY 2012. Given 

the uncertainty that characterized 2012, the economic growth that occurred without a 

contraction or double-dip recession was reassuring. While the economy appeared to be 

picking up steam in the end of FY 2011, growth slowed in the first half of the year before 

softening further in the 4th quarter as uncertainty over the “fiscal cliff” coupled with the impacts 

from Hurricane Sandy reduced demand. Despite the slow growth there were some favorable 

signs in the data as the housing market appeared to be finally turning around and the labor 

market gained traction. 

2.4

1.8 1.9

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.1

2.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3

Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

Fiscal Year 2011 Fiscal Year 2012
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

6

One of the most obvious impacts of the recession has been reflected in the nation’s 

unemployment rate. When the recession began in December 2007 the unemployment rate 

was 5.0 percent, and reached its pinnacle during the fourth quarter of FY 2009 (9.9 percent). 

The unemployment rate has been gradually falling since that time, averaging 9.7 percent in FY

2010, 9.2 percent in FY 2011, and 8.3 percent in FY 2012. . 

9.6 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.6

9.0 9.0 9.1

8.7

8.3 8.2 8.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3

Percent Unemployed

Date

U.S. Unemployment Rate
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

7

The price of oil, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost (for West Texas 

Intermediate, or WTI), was $102.71 in FY 2012, an increase of 6.9 percent from FY 2011. 

Since FY 2009, the refiner acquisition cost of oil has risen by 88 percent. The fuel price 

volatility that characterized 2008-2009 has diminished considerably but a rising trend appears 

to be settling in throughout the last two years. 

Finally, consumer prices continued to increase in 2012. Core inflation (excluding gas and food) 

was moderate (2.2 percent); while headline inflation was up 2.4 percent due to a 3.3 percent 

increase in food prices.

101

107 106 105 107

111 108

103

92 93

98

102 100

97

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

$ Per Barrel of (WTI) Oil

Date

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

8

WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Based on preliminary figures, according to IHS Global Insight, the U.S. and rest of the world 

economies grew 2.1 and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 2012. The advanced economies (U.S., 

Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) expanded 1.1 percent overall. 

All world regions saw their economies grow, including Japan even though it is still recovering 

from the devastation wrought by the earthquake and tsunami in 2011. China was still the 

world leader in economic growth followed by India and Mexico. Data coming out at the year’s 

end suggest that the recovery in Europe is continuing to lag that of other world regions.

On a calendar year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada expanded at the same 

pace as the U.S. (up 2.1 percent, respectively) in 2012. The combined economies of the Asian 

and Far East nations grew 4.2 percent in 2011, down only .1 percent from a year earlier. This 

region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (up 1.7 percent), and the world’s 

most vibrant economy, China, which shows some signs of slowing down (10.5, 9.3, and 7.6 

percent, respectively, for 2010, 2011, and 2012). The combined economies of Europe have 

stalled, with Western Europe (excluding Turkey) down 0.2 percent overall and the combined 

economies of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union up 2.5 percent. GDP in Latin 

America (including the Caribbean) expanded by 3.2 percent with Mexico up 4.0 percent. The 

largest economy in the region, Brazil, appears to be suffering through a slowdown in growth 

3.5 

3.1 

2.7 

1.9 

(0.3)

(3.1)

2.4 

1.8 

2.1 

4.2 

3.7 

4.7 

4.8 

2.0 

(1.9)

4.6 

3.0 

2.3 

 (4.0)

 (3.0)

 (2.0)

 (1.0)

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. and World Gross Domestic Product

US Rest of World

Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 23 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

9

with GDP expanding only 1.5 percent in 2012, following gains of 7.5 and 2.7 percent, 

respectively, in 2010 and 2011. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

10

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Commercial aviation continued a slow recovery in 2012 despite rising jet fuel prices and a 

shaky global economy. The U.S. industry posted a net profit in 2012, with a similar outcome

predicted for foreign carriers. After posting net profits of $8.8 billion in 2011, global industry 

net profits for calendar year 2012 are expected to be $6.7 billion.

3

 All global regions except 

North America and Latin America are projected to see a drop in profits as fuel costs increased

by $33 billion worldwide.

World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air

carriers are expected to post another moderate growth performance in CY 2012 as demand for 

air travel continues to recover from the depressed levels recorded during 2009. Although 

traffic results are not available for full year 2012 at the time of this printing, ICAO predicts that 

worldwide revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) will increase 5.5 percent, a 0.9 percentage 

point decrease compared to last year’s growth rate.4

 3 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2012.

4 ICAO press release dated December 18, 2012, COM 30/12.

11.6

7.1

5.2

8.3

2.8

-0.2

8.1

5.6 5.1

13.9

7.3

5.0

7.4

2.6

-1.6

7.9

6.5

5.5

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

World Passenger Demand

(International and Domestic)

Passengers RPKs

Source: RPKs (ICAO); Pax (2009-11 ICAO, 2012 IATA)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

11

Statistics from IATA, available for calendar year 2012 show passengers are up 5.1 percent 

over calendar year 2011. Data for the same period shows capacity, as measured by available 

seat kilometers (ASKs), to be up 4.0 percent and RPKs to be up 5.5 percent. 

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Annual Percent Change

Month

European Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2012

ASKs RPKs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

12

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported an increase of 5.8 percent in 

international RPKs and a 3.9 percent increase in international ASKs; international passengers 

were up 7.0 percent during the same period.5

 5 Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, “Asia Pacific Full Year 2012 Traffic Results”, Press Release dated 30 

January 2013, Issue 2013: 03.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

Asia Pacific Carriers Capacity and Traffic

Calendar Year 2012

ASKs RPKs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

13

In CY 2012, U.S. and foreign flag carriers transported an estimated 171.8 million passengers 

between the United States and the rest of the world, a 3.7 percent increase from 2011. Yearover-year growth occurred in all markets (up 1.6, 5.6, 5.2, and 2.7 percent, respectively, for 

Atlantic, Latin America, Pacific, and Transborder). Passenger levels in the Atlantic market 

have stagnated due to repercussions from the debt crisis in Europe, the worldwide economic 

slowdown, and congressional impasse over the U.S. budget.

49 50 50 53 57 55 56 58 59

43 44 47 49 50 48 53 57 60

24 25 26 26 26 24 27 28 29

19 20 21 22 22 20

22

23 23

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Millions of Passengers

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S.

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic L. America Pacific Transborder

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; 

data also received from Transport Canada
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

14

Worldwide air cargo demand fell for the 2nd consecutive year in 2012. According to IATA,

worldwide freight ton kilometers were estimated to decline 2.0 percent in calendar year 2012

compared to 2011. Freight ton kilometers (FTKs) of AEA member carriers fell 3.4 percent in 

calendar year 2012 as did the FTKs of AAPA member carriers.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that world air carriers (including U.S. 

airlines) are expected to register an operating profit of $13.6 billion for 2012. IATA estimates

global airline industry net profits to be $6.7 billion for the same period with all regions expected 

to be in the black. Based on financial data compiled by ICAO and IATA, between 2004 and 

2012 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of $95.7 billion (with eight years out 

of nine posting gains) and net profits of $14.0 billion (with five years out of nine posting gains).6

 6 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2012.

9.6

2.5

6.4

5.0

-2.4

-0.7

17.9

-0.8 -2.3

7.9

0.4

4.8 4.8

-1.0

-9.8

18.7

-0.7 -2.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Annual Percent Change 

Calendar Year

World Air Cargo Demand

Tonnes RTKs

Source: IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

15

U.S. Travel Demand

By year end of FY 2012, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 15 scheduled 

mainline air carriers that used large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 70 regional carriers 

that used smaller piston, turboprop, and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide 

connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline and regional carriers offer domestic 

and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although 

regional carrier international service is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and 

the Caribbean. Thirty-three all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air 

cargo service at the end of 2012.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier industry are three distinct trends: (1) continuing 

industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) continued capacity discipline in response to 

external shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancillary revenues.

The restructuring of the US airline industry that began in the aftermath of the terror attacks of 

September 11, 2011 and consolidation continued in 2012. Operations at AirTran Airways were 

folded into Southwest Airlines, while operations at Continental Airlines were folded into United

Airlines. For the regional carriers, the operations at Mesaba, were folded into Pinnacle, and 

Atlantic Southeast was folded into ExpressJet, respectively. In early FY 2012 American Airlines 

declared bankruptcy and began the process of reducing flights and aircraft to bolster profitability. 

During the year, US Airways was actively pursuing a merger with American, furthering hopes of 

3.3 4.4

15.0

19.9

-1.1

1.9

21.7

17.0

13.6

-5.6 -4.1

5.0

14.7

-26.1

-4.6

19.2

8.8

6.7

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Billions of Dollars

Calendar Year

World Air Carrier Profit/Loss

Operating Net Source: IATA
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

16

additional consolidation7. Consequently, when compared to 2007, 7.7 percent fewer domestic 

ASMs were flown and 5.3 percent less passengers were carried domestically in 2012. This has 

had clear implications on the size of the aircraft being used and the load factors, topics which will 

be discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of industry restructuring has been the unprecedented period of 

capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic 

markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of 

decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of 

September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.7 percent above the 

FY 2000 level. However, since 2007, ASMs in the U.S. domestic market have shrunk by 8.1 

percent, as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 

2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present). The 7.7 percent reduction 

in domestic capacity since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and 

their regional counterparts. To better match demand to capacity, the mainline carriers contracted 

out “thin” routes to their regional counterparts because they could provide lift at a lower cost, or 

simply removed the capacity altogether. In 2012, the mainline carrier group provided 9.2 percent 

less capacity than it did in 2007 (and carried 7.3 percent fewer passengers). Capacity flown by the 

regional group has increased 2.4 percent over the same five year period (with passengers carried

up 1.8 percent). 

 

The most recent trend to take hold is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary

revenues by selling products and services beyond that of an airplane ticket to customers. This 

includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price. As noted earlier, 

U.S. passenger carriers posted net profits for the third consecutive year in 2012 with ancillary 

revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome. 

Commercial Air Carriers – Passenger

Coming off of a 2011 highlighted by continued global economic uncertainty with debt 

restructuring issues plaguing the financial recovery, U.S. commercial air carriers’ traffic and 

capacity results in 2012 showed little or no growth. System (the sum of domestic plus 

international) capacity increased 0.1 percent to 995.2 billion ASMs while RPMs increased 0.9 

percent to 822.3 billion. During the same period system-wide passengers increased

0.8 percent to 736.7 million; U.S. mainline carrier passenger growth was 1.3 percent while

regional carrier passengers declined by 1.2 percent to 162.1 million. In the domestic market,

mainline passengers saw an increase for the second consecutive year, up 1.3 percent.

Mainline passengers in international markets posted a third year of growth, although at a 

slower rate than in 2011 (up 1.5 percent). 

Even though the recession was officially over in June 2009,8 carriers continued to face 

economic uncertainty in 2012 as corporate travel budgets remained strained and high

unemployment persisted accompanied by uncertainty surrounding the “fiscal cliff” and the 

 7 On February 14, 2013, US Airways and American announced a merger between the two carriers.

8 According to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

17

payroll tax break. In such an uncertain environment, the industry held capacity flat (up 0.1 

percent), after a 3.4 percent increase in 2011. Given the slight increase in seats available to 

the travelling public, carriers were still able to raise airfares despite the slow growth in demand. 

Combining this pricing power with ancillary revenues, U.S. carriers finished 2012 with a net

profit. 

System load factor and trip length climbed in 2012, even as seats per aircraft mile increased. 

The average load factor reached a record-breaking 82.6 points, up 0.7 points from 2011. 

Passenger trip length increased by 2.0 miles to 1,116.2 miles. This marks the tenth 

consecutive annual increase in trip length. Seats per aircraft mile increased to 141.9 seats (up 

0.8 seats per aircraft mile). 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

18

10.6

7.4

2.7

3.9

0.8

-7.1

2.2

3.5

0.9

7.5

7.0

0.4

3.4

-0.8

-7.2

1.2

2.6

0.8

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System RPMs and Enplanements

RPMs Enplanement

3.5 3.2

-3.4

0.9

-2.0

-8.4

-1.5

0.3

-1.6

7.0

5.3

-0.2

2.7

1.4

-7.3

-0.5

3.4

0.1

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System ASMs and Aircraft Operations 

Operations ASMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

19

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity9 increased just 0.1 percent in 2012 after increasing by 2.0 percent in 2011. 

Departures were down 2.0 percent for the year after remaining flat in FY 2011. Capacity 

growth hovered around zero throughout the year. Mainline carrier capacity was up 0.7 percent 

for the year, while regional carrier capacity fell 3.4 percent. At the end of FY 2012, domestic 

ASMs were still 7.7 percent below pre-recession levels (2007) with departures down 14.3

percent. 

Domestic passenger enplanements grew at a faster rate than ASMs in 2012 up 0.6 percent. 

In the first half of the year, domestic passengers were up 1.2 percent but reversed course in 

the second half of the year as passengers fell 0.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, 

mainline carrier enplanements were up 1.3 percent for the year while regional carrier 

enplanements fell 1.7 percent, posting the second decline in four years for this segment of the 

industry.

 9 The 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Oct-11 Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Capacity

Fiscal Year 2012

Departures ASMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

20

Similar to passenger counts, domestic RPMs grew faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs up

1.0 percent in FY 2012. Growth slowed during the year with the first quarter up 0.5 percent, 

the second quarter up 2.6 percent, and the last half of the year up 0.5 percent. For the year, 

mainline carrier RPM growth was 1.4 percent, while regional carrier RPMs declined 1.7

percent. 

Domestic carrier load factor increased 0.7 points to 83.2 percent, with both the mainline and 

regional carriers groups posting record high loads. Mainline carrier load factor increased 0.5 

points from FY 2011 to 84.1 percent, while regional carrier load factor increased 1.4 points to 

77.6 percent.

Since FY 2007, total domestic capacity has decreased by 7.7 percent. Mainline carriers have 

reduced their domestic capacity by 9.2 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than 

offsetting the growth of low-cost carriers. Making up some of the shortfall from network carrier 

capacity cuts during this time are the regional carriers. This segment of the industry has

expanded capacity (up 2.4 percent from 2007). During the same period, mainline carrier 

RPMs have decreased 5.0 percent, while enplanements have fallen 7.3 percent. In 

comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements have increased 5.3 percent and 1.8

percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen from

87.6 percent in 2007 to 85.7 percent in 2012, with the share of domestic RPMs flown by 

mainline carriers dropping from 88.3 percent to 86.8 percent during the same period. In 2012 

the regional carriers’ domestic passenger share was 24.3 percent, up from 22.6 percent in 

2007.

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Oct-11 Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Traffic

Fiscal Year 2012

Enplanement RPMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

21

502.6 523.1 516.2 533.9 521.6 476.8 473.6 488.4 494.8

125.9

146.4 152.2 156.2 159.1

154.0 161.6 161.7 159.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Millions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

22

International Passenger Markets

U.S. carrier ASMs were up 0.1 percent and departures were up 4.8 percent in 2012. ASMs 

increased in the Latin, and Pacific markets, up 2.7 and 3.9 percent, respectively; but 

decreased 4.4 percent in the Atlantic market.

U.S. carrier international RPMs were up a mere 0.6 percent and passenger enplanements 

were up 2.9 percent in 2012. The Atlantic market posted a decrease, with RPMs decreasing

3.4 percent and enplanements down 2.2 percent. RPMs and enplanements increased 3.9 and 

3.1 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while RPMs and enplanements 

increased 4.2 and 3.8 percent, respectively, in the Pacific market. 

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Oct-11 Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Capacity*

Fiscal Year 2012

ASMs Departures

*Scheduled and non-scheduled ops

 Source: DOT F-41
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

23

The international load factor increased 0.7 percentage points overall in 2012 to 81.5 percent. 

Load factor increased marginally in all markets: in the Pacific market load factor was up 0.2

points to 82.0 percent; in the North Atlantic market load factor was up 0.8 points to 81.6

percent; and in the Latin America market the load factor increased by 0.9 points to 80.9

percent.

In 2012, 51 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin 

America market. The remaining 49 percent of international passengers was split between the 

Atlantic market (31 percent) and the Pacific market (18 percent).

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Oct-11 Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Year over Year Percent Change 

Month

U.S. Commercial Carriers

International Traffic*

Fiscal Year 2012

RPMs Enplanements

*Scheduled and non-scheduled ops

 Source: DOT F-41
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

24

Commercial Air Carriers – Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The 

demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in 

the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and 

nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative shipping modes 

such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 36.4 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2012, down 2.4 percent from 

2011. Domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) remained virtually unchanged (a 0.1 percent

increase) at 12.0 billion. However, international RTMs declined by 3.6 percent to 24.3 billion. 

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 79.2 percent of total RTMs in 2012, with 

passenger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers decreased

2.6 percent in 2012 from 29.6 billion to 28.8 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers 

were 7.6 billion in 2012, 1.6 percent lower than in 2011.

16.3 16.1 15.4 15.2 14.4 11.9 12.8 12.0 12.1

20.1 23.1 24.0 24.7 24.4

19.1

23.1 25.2 24.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Billions

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Cargo Revenue Ton Miles

Domestic RTMs International RTMs
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

25

International Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles by Region

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four components consisting of 

Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’ In 2012 total international RTMs decreased

3.6 percent from 25.2 billion to 24.3 billion with all regions except the Latin posting declines.

The Latin market saw cargo RTMs increase 3.4 percent from 1.83 billion RTMs to 1.89 billion

RTMs. However, cargo RTMs in the Atlantic market fell 3.2 percent, from 7.24 to 7.00 billion 

while the Pacific region saw a greater contraction, a 5.8 percent decrease from 9.11 billion 

RTMs to 8.58 billion RTMs. Cargo RTMs in the ‘Other International’ category contracted by 

2.9 percent, from 7.06 billion RTMs to 6.85 billion RTMs.. 

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2012 Financial Results

U.S. commercial air carriers posted a net profit of $ 719 million during FY 2012 after reporting 

a net profit of $2.0 billion one year earlier.

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) for FY 2012 were up 3.0 percent from FY2011. The 

increase in revenue underscored the ability of passenger carriers to push through fare increases

and to offer value-added services that leisure and business passengers were willing to buy. 

0.7

-1.2

5.6

10.2

-2.0

0.8

9.7

7.6 8.0

-4.6

-11.7

-0.2

5.9

-18.6

-7.8

3.4

2.0

0.7

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Billions of Dollars ($)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Operating and Net Profit/Loss

Operating Profit/Loss Net Profit/Loss Source: DOT Form 41 & 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

26

Revenues for cargo carriers remained essentially flat (up 0.5 percent) following a sharp rebound 

in 2010 and 2011 from the global financial crisis that strengthened demand for air cargo 

services.

During the same period, operating expenses for all carriers increased 2.9 percent. The increase

in operating expenses during FY 2012 was driven by a 24.6 percent rise in the price of fuel for 

the year, as well as an increase in variable costs resulting from increased demand for passenger 

and cargo services.

In FY 2012, passenger carriers reported operating income of $6.0 billion but reported a net loss 

of $59 million, while air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $2.0 billion and a net 

income of $778 million. In the domestic market, passenger carriers generated an operating 

profit of $3.0 billion but posted a net loss of $1.1 billion. In the international market, this carrier 

group posted operating and net profits of $3.0 billion and $1.0 billion, respectively. Cargo 

carriers posted an operating profit of $4.1 billion and a net income of $2.5 billion in domestic 

markets. In international markets, the cargo carriers reported an operating loss of $2.1 billion 

and net loss of $1.8 billion. 

The industry’s poorer financial results in FY 2012 are largely due to a turnaround in the

performance of the network carriers. After two consecutive years (FY 2010-2011) of net profits 

totaling $2.2 billion, this carrier group posted operating profits of $4.2 billion and a net loss of $808 

million. For the nine reporting low-cost carriers, operating profits totaled $1.3 billion and net 

income totaled $699 million for the full year. 

Capacity discipline combined with stable demand resulted in a modest increase in mainline 

carrier passenger yield for the year. Domestic mainline carrier passenger yield increased 3.5

percent in 2012.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

27

`

Of the reporting regional carriers, operating profits totaled $0.3 billion and net losses totaled

$27 million for FY 2012, as domestic yield fell 12 percent.10 Reflecting the changing nature of 

the industry the network carriers are putting the squeeze on their regional partners by 

negotiating fee-for-departure contracts that shift more of the financial risk of contract flying to 

the regional carriers. Since 2007, regional carrier yield is down 39.6 percent in real terms 

(compared to an increase of 1.8 percent in mainline carrier yield for the same period). The

drop in regional carrier yield can be attributed primarily to renegotiated contracts (with lower 

revenues) between the regional carriers and the network carriers. In addition longer trip 

lengths (due to a growing number of larger and faster regional jet aircraft entering the fleet)

and higher load factors have also contributed to the drop in regional yield. All other things

being equal, an increase in either the trip length or the load factor results in drop in yield since

fee-for-departure revenues are spread over a broader base of RPMs.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2012 Aircraft Fleets

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers 

are retiring older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing 

them with more technologically advanced A320 and 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional 

 10 The sharp decline in yield was primarily attributable to a decline in yield at American Eagle resulting from a 

change in their contractual arrangement with American. Passenger revenues include payments received by 

regionals from mainline partners for contractual flying.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Revenue per Mile (

₵)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic Passenger Yield

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

28

carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 

50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is 

estimated at 7,024 for 2012, a decrease of 174 aircraft from 2011. This includes

3,781 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft (over 90 seats), 840 mainline air carrier cargo 

aircraft, and 2,403 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops, and pistons). 

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet increased by 19 aircraft in 2012, following an 11 unit 

increase in 2011. The increase was driven by an 18 unit increase in the low cost carrier fleet. 

Despite the increase in the fleet in 2012, the mainline carrier fleet now stands at 15.8 percent 

below (707 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. The regional carrier fleet was also reduced in

2012, falling by 163 units, and now stands at its lowest level since 2002. Consolidation among 

3,781

3,762

3,751

3,709

3,797

3,983

3,909

3,906

4,029

2,403

2,566

2,613

2,653

2,682

2,780

2,732

2,779

2,747

840

870

850

841

960

974

1,012

1,001

993

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

2012E

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

Number of Aircraft

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 

Aircraft Fleet

Cargo Regionals Mainline AC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

29

regional carriers and high fuel prices continue to spur retirements of 50 seat and smaller 

regional jets.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

30

GENERAL AVIATION

General aviation industry began to show signs of recovery in 2012, especially with strong 

growth in rotorcraft and the agricultural aircraft segment of the turboprop deliveries, as well as 

a modest growth in the single-engine piston sector. Slow economic recovery and economic 

uncertainties continued to impact the turbojet and multi-engine piston deliveries.. Based on 

figures released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. 

manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered -1,514 aircraft in CY 2012, 3.3 percent 

more than CY 2011. This translates into the second year of increase in shipments. Data were

revised from all segments, but most significantly from agricultural aircraft producers. This

revealed an increase of 9.8 percent in total deliveries in CY 2011, as opposed to a decline as 

previously estimated. Overall piston deliveries remained in essence flat with an increase of 0.3 

percent, with single-engine deliveries up 0.9 percent and the much smaller multi-engine 

category down 6.0 percent. In the turbine categories, revised data showed turbojet deliveries 

did not fall in 2011 and were in fact unchanged. However, the latest available data recorded a 

decline of 4.7 percent in 2012. According to the revised GAMA data, turboprop deliveries were 

up by 76.3 percent in 2011 and continued to increase by an estimated 16.2 percent in 2012, 

even though a substantial portion of the deliveries were for the export market. U.S. billings in 

CY 2012 were totaled $8.0 billion, down 3.0 percent compared with 2011.

2,355 

2,857 

3,147 3,279 

3,079 

1,585 

1,334 

1,465 1,514 

6.8

8.7

10.4

11.9

13.3

9.1

7.9 8.3

8.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E

Shipments

Billings ($B)

Calendar Year

General Aviation

U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings 

Source: GAMA Shipments Billings ($ Billion)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

31

General Aviation operations at combined FAA and contract towers increased 0.6 percent in 

2012, led by a 1.5 percent increase in local operations despite a fall in itinerant operations. 

General aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 0.6 percent, while 

the number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers declined by 1.3 

percent.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and 

Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey), which has been conducted annually since 1977, as 

baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates are applied. The results of 2011 survey 

were not available to use as the basis for our forecast this year. Therefore, estimates of 2011 

fleet and hours were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil 

aircraft registration database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and 

utilization by type of aircraft and age of the fleet. 

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization along with 

General Aircraft Manufacturer’s Association (GAMA) aircraft shipment statistics, the active 

general aviation fleet is estimated to have decreased 1.2 percent in 2011, and remained 

unchanged in 2012 at 220,670. With the decrease in the active fleet, general aviation flight 

hours are estimated to have decreased 0.9 percent in 2011 and were flat in 2012 with a scant 

increase of 0.1 percent at 24.6 million. 

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Student 

pilot numbers had been in decline for many years but in 2010 the FAA issued a rule that 

increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 

36 months to 60 months. As a result, according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike 

Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots at the end of 2010 increased by 

64.8 percent, or approximately 47,000 pilots, compared to calendar year end 2009. While the 

impact of the new rule on the long term trend in student pilots has yet to be fully determined, 

by the end of 2012, the number of student pilots increased by 1.1 percent from its 2011 level to 

119,946. The average age of a U.S. pilot in 2012 was 44.7 years old.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

32

FAA WORKLOAD

In 2012, FAA facilities experienced their fifth year of decline in activity. Commercial air traffic 

activity fell for the fourth time in five years as declines in air taxi activity offset a slight increase 

in air carrier activity. The declines in activity were a continuation of the trend started in the 

second half of FY 2011. Noncommercial activity increased for the first time since 2008 as 

increases in general aviation activity offset a slight fall in military activity.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports (the set of 514 towers where FAA 

provides service, ranging from Atlanta (the busiest with 931,000 operations) to towers with as 

few as 7,800 operations (Branson, MO) was 50.6 million operations in 2012, down 0.3 percent 

from 2011 and 26.4 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. Commercial activity 

(the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers fell by 

1.3 percent in 2012. Air carrier operations were up 0.1 percent while commuter/air taxi 

operations declined 3.1 percent. Commercial operations in 2012 were 16.2 percent lower than 

their peak in 2005. 

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract 

towers increased by 0.4 percent in 2012, the first increase in five years. General aviation activity 

(26.1 million) was up 0.6 percent while military activity (2.6 million) was down 2.0 percent. The 

increase in general aviation activity in FY 2012 marked only the third increase in this category

since 1999. At the end of 2012, non-commercial aircraft activity was 32.9 percent below the 

activity in 2000.

In FY 2012, total operations at the large hubs decreased by 0.8 percent to 12.5 million, and 

constituted 24.6 percent of all towered operations. Activity at the medium hubs fell by 3.7 

percent to 5.4 million while activity at the small and non-hub towers increased by 0.4 percent, 

from 32.6 million to 32.7 million. The share of total towered operations at the medium, and small 

and non-hub towers in FY 2012 were 10.7 and 64.7 percent, respectively. Since 2000, 

operations at large hubs have declined by 11.5 percent, while operations at medium hubs have 

fallen by 40 percent, and operations at small and non-hub towers have declined by 28.2 percent. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

33

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the “Core 30” airports. These airports 

represent the top 30 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except Memphis which 

is a major freight hub) and account for about 70 percent of commercial passengers. Commercial 

activity at the Core 30 airports peaked in 2005, but subsequent industry restructuring has 

resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since then. In 2012, 

commercial activity at the Core 30 airports fell by 1.1 percent from the previous year and was 

11.2 percent below 2005 activity levels. Of the Core 30 airports, 12 recorded increases in 

activity from 2011 with the largest increases occurring at San Francisco (up 6.1 percent) and 

Newark Liberty (up 3.3 percent). The largest decreases in activity occurred at Memphis (down

12.1 percent), and Salt Lake City (down 9.5 percent). Only six of the Core 30 airports exceeded 

2005 peak activity levels during fiscal year 2012, unchanged from the number in 2011. 

 

37.9 37.0

35.8 35.9

34.1

30.6

29.2 28.6 28.7

25.2 26.1 25.2 25.3 24.8

22.4 22.1 22.1 21.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Activity 

at Combined FAA and Contract Towers 

Non Commercial Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

34

Since 2005 there has been a pronounced shift in demand which is reflected in the relative 

growth of commercial operations across the Core 30 airports. Commercial operations at San 

Francisco (up 23.7 percent), New York-Kennedy (up 14.5 percent), and Denver (up 10.6

percent) have increased the most relative to their 2005 activity levels. Commercial operations 

at Dulles (down 41.1 percent), and Salt Lake City (down 27.1 percent) show the largest 

declines from 2005 levels. These activity level shifts reflect the impact of airline industry

restructuring. The demise of Independence Air and United’s continuing restructuring of its

network resulted in a dramatic reduction of operations at Dulles, while the bankruptcy of Delta,

its subsequent merger with Northwest, and the restructuring of the combined network has led 

to a dramatic shrinking of operations in Salt Lake City.

Non-commercial activity, 91 percent of which is general aviation, increased 0.4 percent in 2012 

with general aviation activity rising 0.6 percent. Breaking down the general aviation activity by 

hub size, general aviation activity at large and medium hubs fell 6.9 and 1.9 percent, 

respectively, while general aviation activity at small and non-hubs increased by 0.9 percent. 

However, general aviation activity at all hub categories has fallen substantially since 2005, down 

40.4, 37.5, and 22.1 percent, respectively, at large, medium, and small/non hubs. Rising fuel 

prices, stagnant household incomes, falling household wealth, and a shrinking pilot population 

are all viewed as contributing to the long run decline in general aviation activity.

In 2012, total activity at FAA en-route centers (40.8 million) decreased 0.8 percent from the 

previous year, the first decline since 2009. Commercial activity was up slightly (0.4 percent) with 

air carrier operations up 0.9 percent while commuter/air taxi operations fell 0.9 percent. Noncommercial activity was down 5.2 percent for the year as general aviation activity posted a 

modest decline (down 1.3 percent) while military activity decreased 16.5 percent. In 2012, air 

carrier operations were 5.3 percent below their 2000 activity levels and air taxi/commuter 

operations were 10.3 percent above activity levels for 2000. Operations for the general aviation 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SFO

JFK

DEN

CLT

MIA

DCA

EWR

ATL

IAH

BWI

LGA

LAX

ORD

LAS

SEA

MCO

DFW

MDW

BOS

SAN

FLL

HNL

PHL

PHX

DTW

MSP

MEM

TPASLC

IAD

Percent of FY 2005 Ops

Airport

Only Six of Core 30 Airports 

are above 2005 Activity Levels

FY 2012 VS. FY 2005 Commercial Activity
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

35

and military user groups were 26.0 and 55.6 percent below their 2000 activity levels, 

respectively.

33.8

35.1

33.8 34.7 34.1

31.0 31.0

32.4 32.6

12.4 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.3

9.3 9.5 8.8 8.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Millions

Fiscal Year

Aircraft Handled at 

FAA En Route Centers

Commercial Non-Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

36

FAA AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS 2013 – 2033

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the 

aviation industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the 

process is filled with uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Once again, the U.S. aviation 

industry has shown that the demand for air travel is resilient as it rebounds from its most recent

downward spiral caused by the Great Recession. As 2013 begins, lingering questions remain. 

Are the U.S. and global economies on firm ground? Have the structural changes undertaken by 

the industry over the past 5 years revamped the industry from one of boom-to-bust to one of 

sustainable profits? Will industry consolidation continue?

Given the current instability in the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and 

strength of a recovery in aviation demand. Nevertheless, the FAA has developed a set of 

assumptions and forecasts consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently 

taking place within the aviation industry. The intent of these forecasts is to accurately predict 

future demand; however, due to the large uncertainty of the operating environment, the variance 

around the forecasts is wider than it was in prior years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that 

explain and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the 

commercial aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be 

sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not 

assume further contractions of the industry through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation. They 

also do not assume any drastic changes in federal government operations.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing 

the commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published by 

Innovata. To generate the short-term forecast (i.e., one year out) current monthly trends are used 

in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly 

capacity and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar 

years 2013-14. The medium to long-term forecasts (2014-2033) are based on the results of 

econometric models. 

This year, FAA has changed its model for the U.S. domestic market from a GDP based model to a 

model based on real disposable personal income (DPI). FAA believes that aviation demand is a 

derived demand – that is, aviation demand depends upon the level of business and leisure activity 

in the economy. The level of business and especially leisure activity in the economy is driven in 

large part by the amount of disposable income (income after taxes) that is in the economy. As the 

U.S. economy recovers from the great recession, GDP growth may come from areas that don’t 

necessarily translate directly into income growth (inventory accumulation or a reduction in 

imports). Furthermore, any changes in future tax policy that impact individual taxes will be more 

directly reflected in changes to DPI as opposed to GDP, and as such, FAA believes that 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

37

disposable income, rather than GDP, is a better metric to use for forecasting future demand. The 

result of this change is the forecast growth in domestic enplanements is lower by approximately 

0.4 percent a year over the forecast horizon.

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts conducted at 

industry meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business 

Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees in May 2012 and January 2013 along with estimates 

of the fleet from the FAA civil aircraft registration database. The assumptions have been updated 

by FAA analysts to reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information 

from industry experts. 

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, 

who are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their 

comments and/or suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

38

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by IHS 

Global Insight, Inc. to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world 

and individual country economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the 

demand for international aviation services. Annual historical data and economic forecasts are 

presented in Tables 1 through 4. U.S. economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government 

fiscal year (October through September) basis, whereas international forecasts are presented 

on a calendar year basis.

As the recovery is now approaching its fourth year, there continue to be headwinds. IHS 

Global Insight expects the recovery to continue to be modest by historical standards with the 

economy plagued by high levels of debt, both public and private, and uncertainty about U.S. 

government finances. How these issues are resolved will determine the future path of the 

recovery. On the bright side, the housing market is beginning to show signs of life and prior 

fears of a double-dip recession are unlikely to be realized. 

The boost to the economy from fiscal stimulus and inventory buildup has faded, leaving the 

economy to depend on underlying strength in private demand. Growth is projected to be slow 

in the first half of FY 2013 as reductions in government spending, expiration of the payroll tax 

cut, and a drag from Hurricane Sandy limit growth. On a quarter-by-quarter basis U.S. 

economic growth is projected to range between 1.0 to 3.1 percent for the next two years.

1.6 1.7

1.9 1.9

2.3 2.3

2.6

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3

Annual Percent Change

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth

by Quarter

Source: IHS Global Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2014
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

39

The modest pace of economic recovery has been most evident in the nation’s unemployment 

rate. Since peaking at 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2009, the unemployment rate 

has come down gradually, dropping to 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2012. IHS 

Global Insight is projecting that with the continued modest pace of recovery, the 

unemployment rate will drop only modestly in FY 2013, averaging 7.8 percent for the year. 

The slow fall in the unemployment rate will continue to keep income growth in check. Real 

disposable income (income after taxes) increased only 0.9 percent in 2012. The recovery in 

real disposable income is projected to continue with increases of 2.0 percent in 2013 and 3.0

percent in 2014 as unemployment falls and the role of taxes in any long term fiscal solution 

becomes clearer.

In the medium term, (the four year period between 2014 and 2018), U.S. economic growth is 

projected to average 2.9 percent per year with rates ranging between 2.6 and 3.4 percent. 

Income growth remains muted during the same period (up an average of 2.7 percent). For the 

balance of the forecast period, U.S. real GDP growth slows to around 2.5 percent annually 

while income growth increases to 2.4 percent annually. The long-term stability of U.S. 

economic growth depends on sustained growth in the workforce and capital stock along with

improved productivity and competitiveness. 

1.9

2.2

1.7

2.6

3.4

3.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2033

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

40

`

2.1

0.9

2.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2033

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Real Disposable Income

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

41

After the price of oil increased by 6.9 percent in 2012 and 88 percent in total since 2009, IHS 

Global Insight projects the price, as measured by the Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to fall to $91

per barrel in 2013 (down 11.5 percent from 2012). Oil prices are forecast to decline to around 

$81 per barrel by 2015 and then gradually increase to $112 per barrel by 2025. For the 

remainder of the forecast period, oil prices are projected to grow slower than inflation, reaching 

$125 per barrel by 2033. 

Inflation continues to remain in check as energy prices fall in 2013 and 2014. After increasing 

2.4 percent in FY 2012, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI), is projected to rise

1.4 percent and 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2014, respectively. After 2014, consumer price 

inflation is projected to grow between 1.7 and 2.0 percent per year for the balance of the 

forecast. 

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast 

uses high and low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. However due to the 

increased level of uncertainty surrounding the resolution of U.S. government finances (taxes 

and spending along with the debt ceiling), the optimistic and pessimistic economic growth 

cases are based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios from IHS Global Insight’s January 

2013 U.S. economic forecast and go out only to 2022. The optimistic case sees a credible 

plan for long-term deficit reduction being enacted, faster foreign economic growth, along with 

faster employment growth and sustained improvements in the housing sector. Real GDP 

growth between 2012 and 2022 in the optimistic case averages 3.1 percent annually compared 

to 2.6 percent in the base case. The pessimistic case assumes partisan politics turn the task 

28.7

6.9

-11.5

-4.5 -6.3

2.7 2.2

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2033

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

42

of raising the debt ceiling into a political crisis and assumes that in the face of uncertainty, 

cutting spending is the best solution. In addition, the Eurozone crisis intensifies reducing 

demand for U.S. exports. The private sector retrenches and the housing market slows down, 

and the U.S. economy enters a mild recession in 2013. Real GDP growth in the pessimistic 

case averages 1.9 percent annually between 2012 and 2022, 0.7 percentage points lower than 

the base case. Further details about the high and low scenarios can be found in Appendix A.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

43

World Economy

After weathering the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression, a deepening 

recession in Europe and political stalemates in the U.S. over what to do with the U.S. federal 

budget, worldwide economic activity is estimated by IHS Global Insight to have expanded by 

2.2 percent in 2012, down from 2.7 in 2011. The advanced economies (U.S., Canada, 

Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan) posted growth in output ranging from a 

low of -0.2 percent to a high of 3.4 percent. The emerging market economies grew 4.8

percent, 1.4 points lower than in 2011 with the economy of China up 7.6 percent, India up 5.1

percent, Brazil up 1.5 percent, and Russia up 3.6 percent. In 2013, economic growth is 

projected to be 2.2 percent as weak household finances, sluggish employment growth, and 

constrained banking sectors of the advanced economies prevent global aggregate demand 

from growing fast enough to offset weakness from inventory accumulation, the recession in 

Europe, and the lack of stimulus spending. Beyond 2013 for the balance of the forecast period 

world real GDP is projected to increase an average of 3.2 percent per year. 

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions will continue to have the world’s highest 

economic growth rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at 

annual rates of 4.5 and 3.9 percent a year, respectively, over the forecast period (2013-2033). 

China, with a population of approximately 1.35 billion in mid-2012, is forecast to increase

population by only 0.3% percent a year from 2012-2025 but is still projected to become the 

2.8

2.2

0.8

2.4

5.7

4.1

3.2

4.1

7.1

4.1 4.2

4.7

3.2

2.6

2.1 2.5

4.0

2.7

2.2

3.3

 -

 1.0

 2.0

 3.0

 4.0

 5.0

 6.0

 7.0

 8.0

2010 2011 2012 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

by World Region

Total Europe/Africa/ME Latin America & Caribbean Asia-Pacific Canada World

Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 23 November 2012
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

44

world’s second largest economy by 2013 (surpassing Japan). India, with a population of 

approximately 1.26 billion, is projected to see its GDP more than quadruple in size, growing at an 

average rate of 6.9 percent a year during the forecast period. In contrast, Japan grows at just 1.41

percent a year over the forecast horizon as structural impediments, the effects of the 2011 

earthquakes and tsunami, and an aging population continues to limit growth.11, 12 

 11 2012 World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau, www.prb.org 12 IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 23 November 2012
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

45

AVIATION TRAFFIC AND ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional 

carriers) are presented in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data 

and forecasts. 

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are displayed in 

Tables 10 through 18, 21, and 23. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and 

forecasts. 

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 24 through 27. These tables 

provide year-to-year historical and forecast data.

Tables 19 and 20 provide year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 22

provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 28 through 31. These tables provide year-toyear historical data and forecasts.

Tables 32 through 34 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. 

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to decline slightly in2013. In the domestic market, mainline 

carrier capacity expanded slightly (0.7 percent) in 2012 but now is projected to be unchanged 

in 2013 while capacity for the regional carriers is projected to decline in FY 2013 (down 0.4

percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast to decrease in the Atlantic market 

and increase modestly in the Latin and Pacific markets -- resulting in overall international 

capacity decline of 0.5 percent. 

Passenger demand shows minimal growth in 2013 with system RPMs forecast to grow 0.4

percent with all of the increase coming in domestic markets. An upturn in growth is projected 

for the 2014-18 period coincident with faster economic growth as system RPMs and 

passengers increase at an average annual rate of 3.2 and 2.6 percent, respectively. Over the 

same time period, system capacity growth averages of 3.1 percent per year. For the overall 

forecast period, system capacity is projected to increase an average of 2.8 percent a year. 

Supported by a growing U.S. and world economy, system RPMs are projected to increase 2.9

percent a year, with regional carriers (up 3.2 percent a year) growing faster than mainline 

carriers (up 2.9 percent a year). System passengers are projected to increase an average of 

2.2 percent a year, with mainline carriers growing at a slightly higher rate (up 2.3 percent a 

year) than their regional counterparts (up 2.2 percent). By 2033, U.S. commercial air carriers 

are projected to fly 1.74 trillion ASMs and transport 1.15 billion enplaned passengers a total of

1.46 trillion passenger miles.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

46

Planes will remain crowded, with load factors projected to grow moderately during the early 

years of the forecast period then tapering during the mid to latter years to 83.9 percent in 2033

(up 0.8 points compared to the beginning of the forecast period in2013). Passenger trip length 

is forecast to increase by more than 153 miles over the forecast period to 1,275 miles in 2033

(up 8 miles annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in the 

relatively longer international and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033

Millions of Passengers

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

System Enplanements

Regionals Mainline
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

47

Domestic Markets

After expanding slightly in FY 2012 (up 0.1 percent), domestic capacity is projected to remain 

unchanged in 2013. Mainline carrier capacity is forecast to be flat while that of regional 

carriers is expected to fall by 0.4 percent. Domestic commercial carrier capacity growth picks 

up in 2014-2018 period (up 2.3 percent per year) as U.S. economic growth accelerates, with 

mainline carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 2.1percent versus 3.4 percent. For the 

entire forecast period (2013-2033), overall domestic capacity is projected to increase at an 

average annual rate of 2.1 percent, slower than economic growth. Mainline carriers are 

projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent while regional carriers are projected to grow

at 3.2 percent a year. 

The slow pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. will restrain RPM growth during 2013, the 

first year of the forecast (up 0.7 percent). Traffic growth is projected to be sluggish throughout 

the year as fiscal uncertainty continues to surround the U.S. economy. Mainline carrier RPMs

are projected to increase by 0.8 percent during 2013, while regional carrier RPMs are 

projected to increase by 0.4 percent. Traffic growth improves over the 2014-18 period with 

annual RPM growth of 2.5 percent as the economic recovery gains steam. For the balance of 

the forecast period (2018-2033) modest economic growth and falling real yield drives

domestic RPM growth of 2.1 percent a year.. Over the entire forecast period (2013-2033), 

0.7

0.0

2.0

-3.4

-0.4

3.2

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2012 2013 2013-33

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic ASMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

48

domestic RPMs grow an average of 2.2 percent a year with mainline carriers growing more 

slowly than the regional carriers (2.1 percent a year versus 3.2 percent a year, respectively). 

Enplanements are forecast to decline slightly (down 0.1 percent) in 2013 following a 0.7

percent increase in 2012. Similar to RPMs, passenger growth is expected to pick up in the 

2014-2018 period (up 2.4 percent a year) as the recovery gains momentum and then average 

1.8 percent per year for the period 2018-2033. Over the entire forecast period, domestic 

enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent with mainline 

carriers growing more slowly than regional carriers (1.9 versus 2.2 percent a year, 

respectively). 

Reduced capacity combined with a modest recovery in passenger demand provided pricing 

power for the carriers during2012, with nominal yield increasing3.5 percent (up 1.0 percent in 

real terms). In spite of slow demand growth, flat capacity will further lift fares higher in 2013, 

with an increase in nominal yield of 2.5 percent (1.0 percent in real terms). For the entire 

forecast period, nominal yield is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.2 percent a year, 

while in real terms it is projected to decline at an average rate of 0.8 percent a year. The 

decline in real yield over the forecast period assumes technological improvements, competition 

between carriers, and the increasing convergence of cost structures between network carriers 

and their low-cost counterparts. The convergence in cost structures between the carrier 

1.4

0.8

2.1

-1.6

0.4

3.2

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2012 2013 2013-33

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

Domestic RPMs

Mainline Regionals
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

49

groups arises from gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel inefficient aircraft and 

hold the line on labor costs while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work 

forces, and unionization. 

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow 

more slowly than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.4 percent per year for 

departures versus 2.2 percent for RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three

operational measures: aircraft size, load factor, and trip length.

Overall domestic aircraft size increased by 0.9 seats to 123.4 in 2012 as increases in the 

mainline carrier group offset a slight decline in the regional carriers. Mainline carrier aircraft 

size increased 0.4 seats with the retirement of older, fuel inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 

737-300/400/500). Regional aircraft size decreased by 0.3 seats despite the retirement of 50-

seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft entered the fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft 

are forecast to increase in 2013 (up 0.6 seats) as mainline carrier capacity remains steady 

while regional carrier capacity falls slightly. Over the balance of the forecast (2014-2033), 

domestic seats per aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 127.8 seats by2033, an

average of 0.2 seats per year. 

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier 

fleet plans, publicly known aircraft order books, and the FAA’s expectations of the changing 

domestic competitive landscape. In the near-term (through 2014), the forecast incorporates 

several assumptions: 1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) the 

retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 3) the shifting of widebody and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 4) growing use of 70-90 

seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their older narrow-body aircraft (A320’s/B757-

200/300) in their domestic route networks with next generation, narrow-body aircraft like the 

A320 Neo and the 737 Max. The use of smaller aircraft, like the 100-seat Embraer 190, to 

supplement carrier route structures will be limited. The use of the next generation, narrowbody aircraft will allow mainline carriers to better serve their customers by more closely 

matching supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers), and improve 

profitability through lower operating costs.

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2012 by 0.4 seats to 152.7 seats, and is 

projected to increase by 0.3 seats in 2013. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is 

projected to increase by 0.3 seats in 2014 and then gradually increase for the balance of the 

forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the mainline group will increase by 5.7 seats

between 2012 and 2033, going from 152.7 to 158.4.

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a much faster pace than 

that of the mainline carriers. The faster growth in aircraft size for regional carriers is stimulated 

by continued deliveries of 70 to 90 seat regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as 

reductions in the 50-seat and under jet fleet. Regional carriers are better equipped to support 

operations of their mainline partners by providing capacity that complements market demand. 

The larger share of 70 to 90-seat regional jets in the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet 

and small turboprop retirements over the next few years increases the average seating 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

50

capacity of the regional fleet from 56.1 seats in 2012 to 56.9 seats by 2014. Over the course 

of the forecast, the seats per aircraft ratio for the regional carriers increases an average of 0.4

seats per year to 65.4 seats in 2033. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap 

between the size and aircraft types operated by the mainline and regional carriers.

 

The commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 0.7 points during FY 2012 to an all-time 

high of 83.2 percent, with record load factors posted by the mainline and regional carrier 

groups. The mainline carrier group posted a load factor of 84.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage 

points from 2011. The load factor for the regional carriers increased by 1.4 points to 

77.6 percent. In 2013, the domestic load factor is forecast to increase 0.6 points to 83.2

percent as both mainline and regional carriers increase by 0.6 percentage points Thereafter, 

the commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to 85.2 percent by 2033.

In 2012 the average domestic passenger trip length increased by 3.5 miles to 883.6 miles in 

total, after increasing by 5.1 miles in 2011. Passenger trip length is forecast to increase by 7.2 

miles in 2013 as carriers continue to restructure their networks and realign capacity. After 

2013, trip length is projected to remain stable for a number of years before steadily increasing 

from 2018 onwards, reaching 939.8 miles by 2033. The increase in trip length reflects longer 

trips flown by the mainline and regional carrier group. Mainline carrier trip length increases as 

thinner, relatively shorter haul markets are relinquished to regional partners and replaced with 

longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is 

abandoned and/or reduced as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets continue to 

penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously served with mainline equipment. 

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of 

connecting versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. 

airline industry restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities 

and airport activity levels can vary significantly.

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) 

passengers over time to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an 

indicator of the tendency of the average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The 

closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart 

below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry varied within a narrow band 

between 1995 and 2002. After 2002, the ratio trailed downward to its lowest level (1.32 

enplanements for every O&D passenger) by 2007. The decline in the ratio during this six year 

period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the network carriers and a rising passenger 

share for the low-cost carriers. A slight uptick in the ratio started again in 2009 (1.34 

enplanements for every O&D passenger) and continued into 2012 (1.35 enplanements for 

every O&D passenger); this highlights the retrenchment by carriers as fuel costs skyrocketed 

and demand for air travel plummeted. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of 

domestic traffic connectivity and these trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger 

enplanement totals.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

51

International Markets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

The FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand13 for travel between the 

United States and three world travel areas: Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico and the 

Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific, as well as for U.S.–Canadian transborder traffic. These 

forecasts are based on historical passenger statistics provided by the U.S. Customs and 

Border Protection14 and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic 

projections from Global Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 

171.8 million in CY 2012, 3.7 percent higher than in 2011. Passenger demand remains 

consistent in 2013 (up 2.6 percent) and accelerates in 2014 (up 4.5 percent) as the world 

economic recovery solidifies. For the balance of the forecast period, stable worldwide 

economic growth leads international passengers to grow at an average rate of 4.1 percent a 

year, totaling 402.9 million in 2033. 

 13 The sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers. 14 Customs and border protection data is processed and released by the Department of Commerce.

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

1.36

1.37

1.38

1.39

Ratio

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Carriers

Domestic Enplanements per 

Origin-Destination Passenger

Source: DOT T100 and O&D Survey
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

52

In the Latin America region, sustained economic growth drives passenger growth to an 

average of 4.7 percent a year over the entire forecast period (2013-2033). The highest growth 

is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 6.1 percent) while the largest market in the 

region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.6 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth are 

projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 0.1 and 2.8

percent a year, respectively). 

Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific market boost passenger demand an average of 4.3

percent per year. Taiwan, South Korea, India and China (passenger growth of 4.7, 4.7, 5.2

and 6.7 percent a year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the 

region. Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most established in the region) is 

projected to be well below the regional average at 3.0 percent a year.

In the more mature Atlantic market, the Open Skies agreement between the European Union 

and the United States along with competition between global airline alliances helps fuel 

passenger growth of 4.1 percent a year over the forecast period. Over the 20-year forecast 

horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top four Atlantic country specific markets (the 

United Kingdom, Netherlands, Ireland and Germany) is 3.9, 4.0, 4.6, and 4.7 percent, 

respectively.

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic 

U.S. market (2.0 percent), averaging 3.1 percent a year over the forecast period.

4.1 

4.7 

4.3 

3.1 

 -

 0.5

 1.0

 1.5

 2.0

 2.5

 3.0

 3.5

 4.0

 4.5

 5.0

Atlantic Latin America Asia/Pacific Canada Transborder

Annual Percent Change

Region

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

Passengers to/from U.S.

Calendar Years 2013-2033

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; 

data also received from Transport Canada
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

53

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

International U.S. commercial air carrier capacity saw minimal growth overall in 2012, up 

0.1 percent from 2011. The Atlantic market fell quite a bit (down 4.4 percent) after having 

made a recovery in 2011 whereas both the Latin and Pacific markets continued their upward 

trajectories (both up 3.9 percent) but at diminished rates compared to 2011. In 2013, 

moderate demand and increasing competition between global alliances is expected to boost 

capacity in Latin (up 4.8 percent) and the Pacific (up 0.9 percent) markets but lackluster 

performance in the Atlantic (down 4.9 percent) market will result in overall international 

capacity falling by 0.5 percent. System-wide capacity is projected to recover in 2014 (up 3.9

percent), fueled by stronger economic growth projected for all world regions, and is projected 

to average 4.2 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate growth over

the forecast period reflects favorable U.S. and world economic activity as it recovers from the 

global contraction.

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs and enplanements increased 0.9 and 2.4

percent, respectively, in 2012. The strong growth in enplanements relative to RPMs and 

ASMs highlights a return to earlier years when carriers actively restrained capacity as demand 

resumed following the world financial crisis in 2009. An increase in RPMs for the Latin market 

(up 3.9 percent) and Pacific market (up 4.2 percent) barely helped offset a substantial 

decrease in the Atlantic market (down 3.4 percent). In 2013, U.S. carrier international RPMs 

are expected to decrease by 0.2 percent as cuts in the Atlantic market (down 4.9 percent) 

more than offset increases in the Latin American market (up 5.2 percent), and the Pacific

-4.4

-4.9

3.7

2.7

4.8 4.6

3.9

0.9

4.4

0.1

-0.5

4.2

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International ASMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

54

market (up 1.9 percent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase an average of

4.2 percent a year with the fastest growth showing in the Latin region (up 4.8 percent). 

International enplanement growth for 2013 is projected to be 0.7 percent with the Atlantic 

region falling by 4.6 percent as the bleak economic outlook for Europe impacts demand. 

Enplanements are projected rebound at 3.8 percent in 2014 with all regions showing gains. 

Over the balance of the forecast period (2015-2033), enplanements are forecast to increase an 

average of 4.1 percent a year with the fastest growth in Latin and Pacific markets (up 4.5 and 

4.2 percent a year, respectively).

The growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2012-2033 (4.0 percent a 

year) compares favorably to the growth in overall international passengers (4.1 percent a year, 

including the U.S.-Canada transborder market). Forecasts of international demand assume 

U.S. and foreign flag carriers will benefit from improving economic activity in both the United 

States and world markets. 

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 81.3 percent in 2012, an increase of 

0.6 points from 2011. Load factor is expected to increase another 0.3 points in 2013 as 

capacity falls a bit faster than traffic. International load factor is projected to increase 0.5

points to 82.1 percent in 2014 as traffic growth exceeds capacity growth in all three world 

markets and remains at that level for the remainder of the forecast out to 2033. 

(3.4)

-4.9

3.7 

4.8 

5.2

4.7 

4.2 

1.9

4.4 

0.9 

-0.2

4.2 

 (6.0)

 (4.0)

 (2.0)

 -

 2.0

 4.0

 6.0

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

International RPMs

Atlantic Latin Pacific Total
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

55

International passenger real yields for U.S. mainline carriers were up 2.1 percent in 2012 as all 

regions posted increases with the largest increase in the Pacific market (up 3.5 percent), 

followed by the Latin and the Atlantic markets (both up 1.7 percent). Excess capacity in the 

Latin market coupled with weak demand in the Atlantic market leads to a 3.4 decline in 

international real yield in 2013. For the remainder of the forecast period, real yield decreases 

an average of 0.7 percent a year. In nominal terms, international yields are forecast to 

decrease 2.0 percent in 2013, and increase 1.1 percent in 2014 and then grow at an annual 

rate of 1.3 percent over the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes

competitive pressures and technological improvements will hold the line on fare increases.

Commercial Air Carriers – Air Cargo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are

fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have 

occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo security regulations by the FAA and 

TSA, maturation of the domestic express market, a shift from air to other modes (especially truck),

use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the

increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., faxes, e-mail). 

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the 

cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, 

most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity 

will be tied to economic growth. 

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of 

domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of 

international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The 

distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis 

of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions. 

Total RTMs shrank by 2.4 percent in 2012 but are forecast to grow slightly (up 0.4 percent) in 

2013. Driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at 

an average annual rate of 4.6 percent for the balance of the forecast period. 

Domestic cargo RTMs increased by 0.1 percent in 2012 and are forecast to decline by 0.9 percent 

in 2013. Between 2013 and 2033, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an average 

annual rate of 0.8 percent. 

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. 

Thus, this segment’s growth will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic 

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (e.g. e-mail). 

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 70.0 percent 

in 2000 to 88.0 percent in2012. This is because of the shrinkage of the domestic freight/express 

business for passenger carriers as they have responded to the substantial shocks to the aviation 

system during this time. Shrinking networks, elimination of unprofitable flying, and consolidation 

have reduced opportunities for growth in their freight/express business. The all-cargo share is 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

56

forecast to grow to 89.9 percent by 2033 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers and 

ongoing security considerations. 

International cargo RTMs unexpectedly fell 3.6 percent in 2012 as fallout from the European 

debt crisis and a slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide trade.. They are 

projected to grow 1.1 percent in 2013 as global trade growth resumes. For the balance of the 

forecast period, (2013-33) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 5.7

percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. 

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent 

in 2000 to 74.7 percent in 2012. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the 

all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to 81 percent 

by2033. 

0.1

-0.9

0.8

-3.6

1.1

5.7

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers

RTMs

Domestic International
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

57

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,024 in 2012 to 8,554 in 2033, an 

average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent or 73 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is 

projected to decrease by 113 aircraft in 2013 after shrinking by 174 aircraft in 2012 as the slow 

recovery in demand and rising fuel prices prompted carriers to prune their fleets. Since 2007, 

the U.S. commercial airline fleet has contracted by 713 aircraft. In comparison, the U.S. 

commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in 

aviation.

The number of passenger jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet increased by 19 aircraft in 

2012 but is expected to fall by 37 aircraft in 2013 as network carriers continue to remove older, 

less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. After 2013, the mainline air carrier passenger fleet 

increases an average of 58 aircraft a year over the remaining years of the forecast period, 

totaling 4,907 aircraft in 2033. The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and U.S. 

Airways) is projected to grow by 28 aircraft annually over the period 2012-2033; the wide-body 

fleet grows by 26 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350’s enter the fleet. 

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 63 aircraft in 2013 as increases 

in larger regional jets are more than offset by reductions in 50 seat and smaller regional jets

and turboprops. After 2013, the regional carrier fleet is expected to increase by an average of

5 aircraft (0.2 percent) a year over the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 2,436

0.5

-1.0

1.4

-6.4

-2.6

0.2

-3.4

-1.5

1.9

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

Calendar Years 2012-2033

Mainline AC Regionals Cargo
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

58

aircraft in 2033. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is 

projected to grow from 1,645 in 2012 to 2,082 in2033, an average annual increase of 1.1 

percent. All of the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 to 90-

seat aircraft. During the forecast period, all regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from 

the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of scope clauses. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to 

shrink from 758 units in 2012 to 354 in 2033. Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to 

account for just 14.5 percent of the regional carrier passenger fleet in2033, down from a 31.5

percent share in 2012. 

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to decrease by 28 aircraft over the next two years (from 

840 to 812 aircraft in 2014), and then grow to total 1,211 aircraft in 2033. The narrow-body, 

cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 3 aircraft a year over the 21-year forecast period as 

older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service. The wide-body, cargo jet fleet is 

projected to increase by 14 aircraft yearly. 

General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine 

piston, turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, light sport, experimental 

and “other” (which consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles). The FAA forecasts “active 

aircraft,”15 not total aircraft. The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization 

from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon 

which assumed growth rates can be applied. The results of the 2011 survey were not 

available to use as the basis for our forecast this year. Therefore, estimates of 2011 fleet and 

hours were based on estimated number of general aviation aircraft in the FAA civil aircraft 

registration database by the end of CY 2011, and past rates of active aircraft and utilization by 

type of aircraft and age of the fleet. Figures for 2012 are estimated based on other activity 

indicators. Activity forecasts begin in 2013 and continue through 2033.

After growing rapidly for most of the past decade, and then slowing over the past few years, 

the most recent shipment activity indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook that the hard impact 

of the recession on the business jet market is coming to an end. The forecast calls for robust 

growth in the long term outlook, driven by higher corporate profits and the growth of worldwide 

GDP, though at rates lower than those predicted last year. Additionally, continued concerns 

about safety, security, and flight delays keep business aviation attractive relative to commercial 

air travel. As the industry experts and prior year’s survey results report a significant portion of 

piston aircraft hours are also used for business purposes, we predict business usage of 

general aviation aircraft will expand at a faster pace than that for personal and recreational 

use. Increased demand, especially for agricultural use turboprop aircraft also contributes to 

increased turbine fleet and hours.

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 

0.5 percent over the 21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 220,670 in 2012 to 

246,375 aircraft by 2033. The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet 

 15 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

59

(including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average of 2.8 percent a year over the forecast 

period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 3.5 percent a year, reaching a total of 24,620 

by 2033.

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from 

the 2010 total of 159,007 to 146,615 through 2028, with declines in both single and multi-engine 

fixed wing aircraft, but with the smaller category of piston-powered rotorcraft growing. Beyond 

2028, new deliveries are expected to exceed retirements, and so active piston-powered aircraft 

are forecast to increase to 148,660 by 2033. Over the forecast period, piston-powered aircraft are

projected to decrease by an average annual rate of 0.2 percent. Although piston rotorcraft are 

forecast to increase by 2.2 percent a year, they are a relatively small part of this segment of 

general aviation aircraft and therefore have little effect on the overall trend. Single-engine fixedwing piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to decline at a rate of 0.2

percent, while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projected to decline by 0.6 percent a year. 

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA's aircraft 

registry counts) was created: "light sport" aircraft. At the end of 2011, a total of 6,645 active

aircraft were estimated to be in this category. The forecast assumes about 3.2 percent annual 

growth of the fleet through 2013. Thereafter the rate of increase in the fleet slows to about 2 

percent per year. By 2033, a total of 10,245 light sport aircraft are projected to be in the fleet. 

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 1.5 percent yearly over 

the forecast period. The FAA projects above average growth in hours will occur after 2023 with 

0.0

0.2

0.5

2.0

2.6

2.8

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Total Turbines
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

60

increases in the fixed wing turbine aircraft fleet, as well as a rebounding single engine piston 

fleet and increasing utilization of single engine piston aircraft as the aging of this fleet starts to 

slow down. In the medium term, much of the increase in hours flown reflects strong growth in 

the rotorcraft and turbine jet fleets. Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are 

forecast to increase 3.3 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with a slight decline 

of 0.2 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the 

increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 4.3 percent over the 

forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the 

business jet fleet, along with a measured recovery in utilization rates from recession induced

record lows. Turboprop hours are also expected to increase significantly from what forecast 

last year, due to the recent trend of significant increase in agricultural use turboprop aircraft, 

with an average of 2.1 percent per year. Rotorcraft hours, which were less impacted by the 

economic downturn when compared to other categories and rebounded earlier, are projected 

to grow by 2.7 percent yearly. An expected decline in utilization rates of turbine rotorcraft is 

due to the assumption that recently improved affordability at the lower end of the turbine 

market will sustain the recent market share shift toward turbines; however, as turbine powered 

rotorcraft replaces the pistons, and since most of their functions will remain unchanged, 

utilization rates of some of the new turbines will be closer to those of the pistons. Lastly, the 

light sport aircraft category is expected to see an increase in hours flown of 3.3 percent a year;

this is primarily driven by growth in the fleet.

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 

508,300 in 2033, an increase of over 40,000 (up 0.4 percent yearly) over the forecast period. 

0.1

0.3

1.6

2.4

4.0

3.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Calendar Year

Hours Flown in General Aviation Aircraft

Total Turbines
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

61

Commercial pilots are projected to increase from 116,400 in 2012 to 131,800 in 2033, an 

average annual increase of 0.6 percent. The number of student pilots is forecast to decrease at 

an average annual rate of 0.1 percent over the forecast period, declining from 119,946 in 2012 to 

117,400 in 2033. In addition, the FAA is projecting that by the end of the forecast period a total 

of 14,200 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2012, the number of sport pilot 

certificates issued was 4,493 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot 

certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at 

an average yearly rate of 0.2 percent over the forecast period to a total of 195,600 in 2033

from 188,001 in 2012.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

62

FAA Workload Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 514 FAA (264) and contract towers (250) totaled 50.6 million operations in 2012, 

down 0.3 percent from 2011. Activity is projected to fall another 0.3 percent in 2013, with

declines in both commercial and non-commercial activity. Growth in total activity at FAA and 

contract towers resumes in 2014 (1.0 percent) and for the balance of the forecast, activity 

grows at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year, reaching 61.1 million operations in 2033.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity 

(up 1.6 percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to increase slightly (0.6) percent in 

2013 as carriers keep capacity under control given the uncertain economic environment. 

Beyond 2013, air carrier activity is projected to increase an average of 2.5 percent per year 

over the forecast period. The increase in air carrier activity is driven by combination of 

mainline carriers increasing capacity in response to growing demand as well as an increase in 

the operations of 70-90 seat jets which are counted in the air carrier category. Commuter/air 

taxi operations are forecast to fall 1.9 percent in 2013 and decrease 0.1 percent a year for the 

balance of the forecast period as regional jets less than 50 seats exit the industry. 

General aviation activity increased 0.6 percent in 2012 as local activity rose 1.5 percent.. 

Overall general aviation activity is projected to fall slightly in 2013 (down 0.2 percent) reflecting 

the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook before beginning to rise

modestly in 2014 (up 0.4 percent) as a growing economy promotes the growth of flight hours 

and operations. For the entire forecast period, general aviation activity at towered airports is 

projected to increase an average of 0.4 percent a year, to 28.5 million operations in 2033. 

General aviation activity at combined FAA/contract towers grows in line with the modest increase 

forecast for general aviation piston hours already cited. Most operations at the smaller towers are 

in piston aircraft, while those at the largest airports tend to be turbine operations. 

Military activity fell 2.0 percent in 2012 and is assumed to remain at 2012 levels (2.6 million) 

throughout the balance of the forecast period.

The forecasted growth in operations is not uniform across all facility categories. Over the 

forecast period, total operations at large hub airports (those airports that enplane 1% or more 

of total US enplanements) are projected to increase from 12.4 million in 2013 to 17.2 million in 

2033, an average annual rate of 1.7 percent a year. Operations at these facilities are 

overwhelmingly commercial in nature (95.3 percent in 2012) and their growth will mirror the 

growth in total commercial operations. Total operations at medium hub airports (those airports 

that enplane 0.25 to 0.99 percent of total US enplanements) are projected to increase a bit 

slower than the large hubs, averaging 1.5 percent a year over the forecast period, to total 7.2 

million in 2033. In the largest category, small and non-hub airports, where 82 percent of the 

operations are non-commercial in nature, total operations are projected to increase from 32.8 

million in 2013 to 36.7 million in 2033, an average annual rate of 0.6 percent a year.

 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

63

Operations16 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 1.4 percent in 2012, 

the eighth year in a row. They are projected to fall an additional 1.2 percent in 2013 as both 

commercial and non-commercial activity decline. After 2013, TRACON operations are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent for the balance of the forecast. For the 

entire forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.2 percent per year, totaling 

47.2 million in2033. 

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to 

increase at 1.6 percent per year driven by growth in air carrier activity. General aviation 

operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 0.6 percent a year, reflecting the slow 

growth in the general aviation fleet and hours. Military activity is expected to remain at its 2012

level (2.3 million) of activity throughout the forecast period.

En-route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en-route traffic control centers decreased 0.8 

percent to 40.9 million in2012, as declines in general aviation and military activity offset a slight 

increase in commercial aviation activity. In 2013 a modest increase in airline activity offsets a 

 16 TRACON operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals 

and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and VFR overflights. 

-1.4

-1.2

1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.6

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Tracon Operations

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

64

fall in general aviation activity, resulting in en-route center activity increasing by 0.4 percent. 

After 2013, through the balance of the forecast period, en-route activity increases 1.8 percent 

annually, reaching 58.2 million aircraft handled in 2033. Over the entire forecast period, 

commercial activity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent, reflecting 

increases in the commercial fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general 

aviation activity is projected to grow 0.7 percent per year, reflecting growth in business 

aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2012 activity level throughout the forecast 

period.

 

Activity at FAA en-route centers is growing faster than at towered airports because more of the 

activity at en-route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly 

turbine) general aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at towered airports, which is 

growing more slowly, is local in nature, and does not impact the centers.

-0.8

0.4

1.8

0.4

0.7

2.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2012 2013 2013-2033

Annual Percent Change 

Fiscal Year

IFR Aircraft Handled

at FAA En-Route Centers 

Total Commercial
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

65

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are currently the most dynamic growth sector within the 

aviation industry and have two distinctive characteristics. First, they have no human 

pilot/operator onboard and second, they are remotely operated by a pilot using data link 

transmissions. 

As shown in the graph below, the Teal Group forecasts worldwide annual spending on 

research, development, testing, and evaluation procurement will increase from $6.6 billion in 

2013, to $11.4 billion in 2022 for all UAS. Over the next ten years, Teal Group forecasts total 

UAS spending worldwide at $89.1 billion.

Teal UAS Budget Forecast

Most UAS were initially developed for military applications but have great potential for cross 

over to commercial and civil markets. The most popular military UAS use is for reconnaissance 

and surveillance, so we would expect that these types of operations would be adopted more 

quickly. As such, we expect that search and rescue will be an extremely viable for UAS. 

In 2009, the FAA created the Unmanned Aircraft Program Office (UAPO) to integrate UAS safely 

and efficiently into the National Airspace Systems and coordinate all FAA certification and 

operational policy activities related to UAS. In October 2010, the UAPO published a Civil/Public 

UAS roadmap to clarify the path toward certification and operation of UAS in the NAS. The FAA 

is continuing to develop a plan to accelerate the integration of civil UAS into the NAS. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

66

With all the possible applications for unmanned aircraft, the FAA forecasts the largest nearterm growth in civil/commercial unmanned operations will be in the area of Small Unmanned 

Aircraft Systems (sUAS). The FAA is continuing to make a significant effort to develop the 

necessary regulatory framework for Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems to operate. The 

regulatory framework will includes standards, airworthiness criteria, certification and 

procedures for sense and avoid systems, as well as protocols to be used for the certification of 

command control and communication systems in the defined flight environment. 

We believe that the civil UAS markets will evolve within the constraints of the regulatory and 

airspace requirements. Once enabled, commercial markets will develop and demand will be 

created for additional UAS and the accompanying services they can provide. Once enabled, 

we estimate roughly 7,500 commercial sUAS would be viable at the end of five years. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

67

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) 

licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and 

non-federal launch sites authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle 

V, Chapter 509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order 

also direct the Department of Transportation (carried out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, 

and promote U.S. commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and regulate commercial 

launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health and safety, 

the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United 

States. 

Overview

Commercial space transportation primarily consists of commercial launch service providers 

launching satellites and cargo into orbit for either commercial or government customers. 

Commercial space transportation also includes suborbital launches, where a payload or a 

vehicle is launched on a trajectory that briefly enters space but returns to Earth without 

entering orbit. Finally, it includes the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most 

frequently used vehicles are: 

• Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture 

between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Lockheed Martin Commercial 

Launch Services (LMCLS);

• Delta IV, a heavy-class vehicle and the Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, both built by 

ULA and marketed by Boeing Launch Services (BLS);

• Falcon 9, an intermediate-class launch vehicle built, operated, and marketed by Space 

Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX). 

• Pegasus and Taurus, two small vehicles built, operated, and marketed by Orbital 

Sciences Corporation (Orbital); and

• Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye for the 

Russian-owned Sea Launch venture, launched from a floating launch platform based at 

Long Beach, CA.

The medium-class Antares by Orbital is currently under development and its first launch is 

planned for 2013. 

From 1989 through the end of 2012, DOT/FAA has licensed 212 orbital and suborbital 

commercial launches.

Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, were first 

granted by the FAA in 2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Other permits have been 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

68

granted for vehicles participating in the Lunar Lander Challenge, completed in 2009. Since 

then, Experimental Permits have been issued to Blue Origin, SpaceX, and Scaled Composites 

as those companies develop new vehicles.

Eight commercial spaceports, located in six states, Alaska, California (part of Vandenberg Air 

Force Base and Mojave Air and Space Port), Florida (Cape Canaveral and Cecil Field 

Spaceport), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia, currently have FAA launch site operator 

licenses. Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under 

development.

Review of 2012

There were five FAA-licensed orbital launches in 2012, up from one in 2011. SpaceX’s Falcon 

9 vehicle made two licensed launches to the International Space Station. In May, SpaceX 

completed its second flight under NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) 

program, and in October, the company launched its first flight under NASA’s Commercial 

Resupply Services (CRS) program. Sea Launch’s Zenit-3SL vehicle performed three licensed 

launches, which carried Intelsat 19, Intelsat 21, and Eutelsat 70B communications satellites to 

geostationary orbit.

2011 2012 2013 Forecast

Licensed Launches 1 5 7-12

Permitted Launches 2 2 10-25 

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches, 2011-2012

Worldwide there were 20 orbital commercial launches in 2012, compared to 18 in 2011. In 

addition to the five FAA-licensed launches, Europe performed six commercial launches, all on 

the Ariane 5 vehicle. Russian conducted seven commercial launches, all on the Proton M 

vehicle, and China conducted two commercial launches on the Long March 3B and Long 

March 2D vehicles. There were 78 total worldwide commercial, civil, and military launches in 

2012, with commercial launches representing approximately 26 percent of the total. For more 

details, see the 2012 Year in Review report available online at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/.

Global Forecast

In May 2012, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee 

(COMSTAC) published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2012

Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 29.1

commercial orbital launches per year of geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and nongeosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2021. That annual average includes 16.3

launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 12.0 launches of medium-toheavy vehicles to NGSO, and 0.8 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

69

Combined 2012 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 

2,000 to over 6,000 kilograms. There has been an increase in the number of GSO satellites 

that are larger and more complex; however, there is still a demand for smaller satellites. 

Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets, including commercial 

remote sensing; science and technology demonstration; and replenishment and replacement 

of low Earth orbit communications satellite systems reaching the end of their lifespan. The 

majority of commercial NGSO launches for science and technology demonstration missions 

are for nations that do not have indigenous launch capability.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but 

instead represent the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The 

complete forecast report is available at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/

Suborbital Reusable Vehicles Forecast

In July 2012, the FAA and Space Florida prepared forecasts of demand for suborbital reusable 

vehicles (SRVs) for a 10-year period. The goal of the study was to provide information for 

government and industry decision makers on the emerging SRV market by analyzing 

dynamics, trends, and areas of uncertainty in eight distinct markets SRVs could address. The 

eight markets include: Commercial Human Spaceflight, Basic and Applied Research, 

Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration, Media and Public Relations, Education, 

Satellite Deployment, Remote Sensing, and Point-to-Point Transportation. Demand in each 

market was forecast for three scenarios: baseline, growth, and constrained. The units used are 

seat/cargo equivalents, translated as either one seat for a single occupant or a cargo 

equivalent of 3.3 lockers (based on the mid-deck lockers used aboard the Space Shuttle).
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

70

Total projected demand for SRVs, across all eight markets, grows from around 370 seat/cargo 

equivalents in Year 1 to over 500 seat/cargo equivalents in the tenth year of the baseline case. 

(Year 1 represents the first year of regular SRV operations.) Demand under the growth 

scenario, which reflects increases due to factors such as marketing, research successes, and 

flight operations, grows from about 1,100 to more than 1,500 seat/cargo equivalents over ten 

years. The constrained scenario, which reflects significantly reduced consumer spending and 

government budgets, shows demand from about 200 to 250 seat/cargo equivalents per year.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total

Baseline 

Scenario 373 390 405 421 438 451 489 501 517 533 4,518

Growth 

Scenario 1,096 1,127 1,169 1,223 1,260 1,299 1,394 1,445 1,529 1,592 13,134

Constrained 

Scenario 213 226 232 229 239 243 241 247 252 255 2,378

Total projected demand for suborbital reusable vehicles across all markets by seat/cargo equivalents

Demand for SRVs is dominated by Commercial Human Spaceflight. The analysis indicates 

that about 8,000 high net worth individuals from across the globe are sufficiently interested and 

have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a suborbital flight. The second largest 

area of demand is Basic and Applied Research, funded primarily by government agencies, and 

also by research for not-for-profits, universities, and commercial firms. Aerospace Technology 

Test and Demonstration, Education, Satellite Deployment, and Media and PR generate the 

remaining demand. The Remote Sensing and Point-to-Point Transportation markets are not 

forecasted to drive launches at this time.

10-year SRV demand forecast
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

71

For more details, see the Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 10-Year Forecast of Market 

Demand report available online at: 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

72

RISKS TO THE FORECASTS

The forecasts in this document are forecasts of aviation demand, driven by models built on 

forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts 

and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. This 

year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the 

strength of the economic recovery and any impact resulting from the U.S. government fiscal 

situation. Also, as numerous recent incidents (like the attempted bombing of a Northwest

airliner on Christmas Day 2009, the discovery of multiple devices on cargo flights out of 

Europe in October 2010) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to aviation 

growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact 

on the demand for aviation services that would be greater than its impact on overall economic 

activity. 

Although oil prices remained high in 2012, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the level 

of oil prices once the economic recovery is on firmer ground. The FAA’s baseline forecast 

(derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus released during 

the fourth quarter of 2012) calls for decreases in oil prices until 2015. These are relatively 

modest, with the price of oil approaching $80/barrel by 2015 and then gradually increasing 

thereafter, approaching $128/barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2033. Some 

forecasters are calling for a much sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy 

Information Administration (EIA) in its 2013 Annual Energy Outlook projects oil prices to 

remain between $90 and $100/barrel through 2015-2016 and then rising steadily over the next 

17 years, reaching $200 per barrel in 2033. While lower oil prices give consumers an impetus 

for additional spending, including air travel, and increases the chances for industry profitability, 

higher oil prices could lead to further shifts in consumer expenditures away from aviation, 

dampening a recovery in air transport demand. Furthermore, higher oil prices, especially in 

the near term, could wipe out industry profitability, put increasing pressure on airline costs, 

delay balance sheet improvements and discourage expansion plans or orders for new aircraft 

as carriers focus on maintaining and increasing cash balances. 

Although the global economy is growing, the data suggests that growth is concentrated in 

relatively few countries. As a result, the ensuing economic recovery may not be balanced and

there is considerable doubt about the strength and sustainability of the expansion. The 

baseline forecast assumes that growth in the BRIC17 economies will be significantly higher 

than in the other large economies – U.S., Japan and the European Union. Doubts remain over 

the strength of demand in the U.S., Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue 

to be constrained by structural economic problems and institutional constraints. In addition, 

many countries in the European Union have implemented austerity policies, aimed at reducing 

government spending and personal debt, which could prolong the regional downturn. 

Furthermore the steps that were taken to resuscitate the global economy may prove to be 

 17 Acronym given to the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

73

excessive, since the resulting surge in liquidity growth seems to be inflating asset bubbles and 

exacerbating existing global imbalances. Once the global economy recovers from the current 

downturn, there could be an increased risk posed by asset bubbles and macroeconomic 

imbalances, which could result in a deeper, more prolonged, and less manageable recession 

and financial crisis. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between 

the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could 

seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather 

limited beyond the announced merger between American Airlines and U.S. Airways. If the 

merger is approved, this will leave the U.S. industry with four major players (Delta, United, 

American, and Southwest), who accounted for almost 80% of all capacity and traffic flown in 

2012. Of the network carriers, only Alaska remains independent, although it does have code 

share agreements with both American and Delta. In the low cost carrier sector, the merger 

between Southwest and AirTran is progressing at a steady pace as the carriers plan to fully 

connect their networks by April, 2013 and have full integration of the fleet and a single ticketing 

system by the end of 2014. Aside from Southwest and AirTran, there appears to be little 

scope for further consolidation as there are significant obstacles. In particular the financial 

situation of many low cost carriers limits the possibilities of additional merger activity. For 

many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of financial risk 

associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. However, U.S. airlines are 

exploring other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the U.S. are 

members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity from the

U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility for airline operators across borders, 

it may create an anti-competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating 

vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory 

scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving 

structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) 

into the fleet of regional carriers. However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to 

those of the larger network carriers. As demand continues to slowly recover, increased 

financial pressures on regional operators have appeared. Furthermore, as consolidation has 

occurred among the network carriers, certain regional carriers have found themselves either 

saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of feed traffic. Unlike the 

period after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, when network carriers also reduced the 

size and breadth of their networks, regional carriers have not necessarily seen opportunities 

for increased flying to backfill the loss of the mainline service. While Delta’s announced plans 

to reduce its reliance on small (read 50 seat) regional jets may provide some opportunities for 

well positioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce 

opportunities for regional flying substantially.

 

After suffering through a significant downturn in 2009, business and corporate aviation have 

seen a partial recovery during the past three years. The pace of the recovery in business and 

corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and 

corporate profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the 

forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

74

aviation, potential environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security 

measures placed on business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. 

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition 

from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates 

show that a record number of new business jets are delivered overseas and, with the potential 

easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet 

manufacturers looks all the more promising. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the 

subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look 

increasingly appealing.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the 

next 20 years, so is the mix of aircraft for this same period. The expected increases in the 

numbers of regional jets and business jets will increase the impact the national airspace 

system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. This increase in the mix of aircraft will 

impact workload strictly due to the increasing demand for aviation services projected over the 

forecast period. 

Although overall activity at FAA and contract towers fell in 2012, activity at many of the largest 

airports increased in 2012 and delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. 

airports. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a 

critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload 

are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the 

projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more 

congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and workload would not be 

achieved. 

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the 

ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport 

expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and 

water quality concerns. There is also an ongoing effort to address the climate impacts of 

aviation. Aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, but this 

percentage is expected to increase with the growth in operations unless mitigated with new 

technology, renewable fuels, operational improvements and market based measures. While 

certain measures to address climate impacts can result in reduced costs, such as increased 

fuel efficiency, other measures, such as market instruments could pose additional constraints 

on growth. Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security 

issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of 

progress in improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in 

more restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service which in turn may

depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and 

renewable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast, and 

enable sustainable growth.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

75

APPENDIX A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST 

SCENARIOS

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. As 

volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning 

purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA 

has begun to provide alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and 

capacity.

To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international 

regions from IHS Global Insight’s 30-Year Focus (released fourth quarter 2012) were used to 

generate enplanements, mainline real yield and nominal yield. To develop the alternative 

scenarios, assumptions from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in IHS Global 

Insight’s 10 year alternatives from their January 2013, U.S. forecast were used. The January 

2013 forecast reflected the incorporation of the “fiscal cliff” deal that was agreed to on New 

Year’s Day. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the baseline scenario inputs to 

create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. 

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by country specific Gross 

Domestic Product (GDP) provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP 

for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and pessimistic 

forecasts of GDP described above in order to create a high and low case. Since only the ten 

year alternative GDP forecasts by Global Insight were available at the time of this analysis, both 

the domestic and international optimistic and pessimistic scenarios extend to 2022 only.18

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn 

and suffers no major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, 

or financial meltdowns. The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic 

forecast. The optimistic forecast sees faster employment growth and sustained improvements 

in the housing sector leading to a stronger economy. A credible plan for long-term deficit 

reduction is enacted, and policy decisions in both Europe and China boost the global economic 

outlook. In this scenario GDP and real DI growth are about 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, 

respectively, faster per year than the baseline forecast and unemployment averaging 1.5 points 

lower on an annual basis than the baseline (Real DI and unemployment are used as an input 

variables to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements). Conversely, FAA’s low 

case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In the pessimistic forecast, the 

U.S. is not able to avoid a prolonged fight over the debt ceiling and in the face of uncertainty, 

 18 IHS Global Insight, Short-term macro forecast – baseline and alternatives, released January 4, 2013.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

76

policymakers decide to cut spending. The Eurozone crisis intensifies which reduces the 

demand for U.S. exports. As the private sector cuts back, housing activity begins to slow and 

credit dries up, pushing the U.S. economy into a mild recession in early 2013. In this scenario, 

GDP and real DI grow 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, slower per year than in the 

baseline, and unemployment, on average, is 1.4 points higher on an annual basis than in the 

baseline.

2.3

0.6

2.0

2.2

1.7

2.7

2.3

2.6

3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Gross Domestic Product

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

77

 

0.8

1.1

2.1

0.9

2.0

2.6

0.8

1.1

3.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Real Disposable Personal Income

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Source: IHS Global Insight
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

78

Oil prices affect the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact on the 

profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices fall over the next few years. In 

the baseline forecast, oil prices are kept in check as technological improvements act as a 

counterbalance to rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners acquisition cost (RAC) of oil 

increases only 1.7 percent between 2012 and 2022, rising from $103 to $104 per barrel. In the 

optimistic case, the price of oil (RAC) decreases at a faster pace through 2015 than in the 

baseline forecast and then rises more slowly thereafter, resulting in a price of $94 per barrel by 

2022. The high case is characterized by availability of energy, further gains in technology, and 

a stronger dollar which help to temper prices compared to the baseline. In the low case 

forecast, a weaker dollar and lower productivity gains create upward pressure in oil prices after 

2015. In this scenario, the RAC rises by 38 percent over its 2015 low to $119 by 2022. 

102.8

85.5

118.5

102.7

81.3

104.4

102.8

78.1

94.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2015 2022

$ Per Barrel

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

79

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the 

forecast period. In the optimistic case the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate 

of 1.7 percent per year (compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy 

prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimistic case 

forecast the opposite holds with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly 

compared to the baseline. As a result, in the pessimistic case, the CPI grows an average of 2.4

percent annually over the forecast period. 

2.4

1.1

2.4 2.4

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.3

1.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Source: IHS Global Insight Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

80

Alternative Forecasts

Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of

2.4 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2013-2022 (with domestic and international 

passengers up 2.2 and 4.2 percent, respectively). In the optimistic case, passengers grow at a 

quicker pace, averaging 3.4 percent per year (up 3.2 percent domestically and 4.7 percent 

internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower 

inflation, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to business and 

leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2022, passengers in the optimistic case 

are 10.3 percent above the baseline. The pessimistic case is characterized by a mild recession 

in 2013 along with weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, 

higher energy prices, and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow an average of

1.3 percent per year (domestic up 1.1 percent and international up 2.8 percent). In the 

pessimistic case, system passengers in 2022 are 8.7 percent below the baseline case, totaling 

835 million, 80 million fewer than in the baseline.

0.8

0.9

1.5

0.8

0.0

2.4

0.8

1.5

3.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

81

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent a year

over the forecast horizon, with domestic RPMs increasing 2.4 percent annually and 

international RPMs growing 4.5 percent annually. In the optimistic case, the faster growing 

economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth 

averaging 4.0 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.6 and 5.0 percent, 

respectively). In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher 

energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 1.7 percent annually with domestic markets 

growing 1.1 percent a year while international traffic grows 2.9 percent annually.

Available Seat Miles

In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 2.9 percent annually 

over the forecast horizon (with growth averaging 2.2 percent annually in domestic markets and 

4.4 percent a year in international markets). In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster 

clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging 3.9 percent annually (up 3.4 percent domestically 

and up 4.9 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline 

forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought about by a more favorable 

economic environment and by the end of the forecast horizon, system capacity in the optimistic 

0.9

0.4

2.2

0.9

0.4

3.0

0.9

1.2

4.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

82

case is 9.9 percent above the baseline case. In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel is 

lower than in the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.6 percent annually 

(domestic growth of 1.0 percent annually and international up 2.9 percent annually). Total 

system capacity in the pessimistic case in 2022 is 11.1 percent below the baseline and 19.1

percent below the optimistic case.

Load Factor

System load factors over the 10-year forecast period are relatively similar for all three forecast 

scenarios. In the base case, system load factor rises from 82.6 percent in 2012 to 83.9 percent 

in 2022. In both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, system load factor increases from 

82.6 percent in 2012 to 83.4 percent and 83.8 percent, respectively, in 2022. In all three 

scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side by actively 

managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers). The domestic load 

factor increases over the forecast horizon from 83.2 percent to 84.9 percent in the base case, 

and to 84.6 percent in both the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. The international load 

factor grows from 81.3 percent in 2012 to 82.1 percent in 2022 in all three scenarios.

0.1 0.0

2.1

0.1

-0.2

2.9

0.1

0.7

3.9

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2012 2013 2013-22

Annual Percent Change

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

83

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.4 percent annually, going from 14.20

cents in 2012 to 16.32 cents in 2022. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises 

from 14.00 cents in 2012 to 16.41 cents in 2022, while international yield rises from 14.68 cents

in 2012 to 16.13 cents in 2022. System yield rises more slowly in the optimistic case, up 0.6

percent annually to be 15.28 cents at the end of the forecast period. Domestic yield increases 

to 15.08 cents while international yield increases to 15.69 cents. The slower growth in yield in 

the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel 

prices, and lower inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the 

domestic market fares are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased market overlap 

between low cost and legacy carriers. In the international market, increased competition from 

growing liberalization puts downward pressure on fares. In the pessimistic case, nominal 

yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.3 percent annually, 

reaching 16.87 cents by 2022 (16.88 cents domestically and 16.85 cents internationally). This 

scenario reflects higher general inflation and higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing 

carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

84

 

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2012E 2013 2014 2018 2022 2012-13 2013-14 2013-18 2013-22

EconomicAssumptionsReal Gross Domestic Product Pessimistic 13,537 13,622 13,670 15,085 16,298 0.6% 0.4% 2.1% 2.0%

(BIL 05$) Baseline 13,528 13,764 14,118 15,809 17,445 1.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%

Optimistic 13,537 13,891 14,450 16,510 18,388 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 102.8 84.2 79.0 106.0 118.5 -18.1% -6.2% 4.7% 3.9%

Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 102.7 90.9 86.8 91.9 104.4 -11.5% -4.5% 0.2% 1.6%

Optimistic 102.8 106.0 93.3 81.8 94.0 3.1% -11.9% -5.0% -1.3%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.29 2.31 2.34 2.57 2.85 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4%

All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.29 2.32 2.36 2.54 2.74 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

Optimistic 2.29 2.34 2.38 2.52 2.71 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 8.3 8.0 8.6 7.4 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

(%) Baseline 8.3 7.8 7.5 5.9 5.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Optimistic 8.3 7.2 6.2 4.2 4.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Sources: Baseline -IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2012; Optimistic and Pessimistic - IHS Global Insight, U.S. Economic Outlook, January 2013

TABLE A-1

FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

FISCAL YEARS 2012-2022
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

85

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2012E 2013 2014 2018 2022 2012-13 2013-14 2013-18 2013-22

System Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 995.2 991.9 994.0 1,043.7 1,143.2 -0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 1.6%

(BIL) Baseline 995.2 993.5 1,020.8 1,151.5 1,286.6 -0.2% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9%

Optimistic 995.2 1,002.6 1,055.7 1,264.7 1,413.6 0.7% 5.3% 4.8% 3.9%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 822.3 823.1 827.3 872.3 957.6 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7%

(BIL) Baseline 822.3 826.0 851.6 964.8 1,080.1 0.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0%

Optimistic 822.3 831.9 878.7 1,057.7 1,184.4 1.2% 5.6% 4.9% 4.0%

Enplanements Pessimistic 736.7 742.7 743.8 775.8 834.9 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3%

(MIL) Baseline 736.7 736.7 757.2 840.0 914.5 0.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4%

Optimistic 736.7 748.0 789.3 929.8 1,008.3 1.5% 5.5% 4.4% 3.4%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 7,033.0 7,057.2 7,052.9 7,296.7 7,909.9 0.3% -0.1% 0.7% 1.3%

(MIL) Baseline 7,033.0 7,005.7 7,173.8 7,966.2 8,753.7 -0.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

Optimistic 7,033.0 7,108.3 7,488.7 8,877.4 9,747.1 1.1% 5.4% 4.5% 3.6%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 9,357.4 9,394.4 9,343.9 9,507.1 10,012.1 0.4% -0.5% 0.2% 0.7%

(000s) Baseline 9,357.4 9,240.4 9,424.4 10,212.9 10,850.0 -1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

Optimistic 9,357.4 9,486.9 9,912.5 11,307.6 11,964.1 1.4% 4.5% 3.6% 2.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.20 13.71 13.74 15.58 16.87 -3.5% 0.2% 2.6% 2.3%

(cents) Baseline 14.20 14.36 14.51 15.42 16.32 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4%

Optimistic 14.20 14.44 14.36 14.48 15.28 1.7% -0.6% 0.1% 0.6%

TABLE A-2

FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2012-2022
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

86

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2012E 2013 2014 2018 2022 2012-13 2013-14 2013-18 2013-22

Domestic

Aviation Activity

Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 694.4 698.7 698.0 707.1 764.4 0.6% -0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

(BIL) Baseline 694.4 694.2 710.7 779.0 846.4 0.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%

Optimistic 694.4 698.7 742.2 877.6 946.0 0.6% 6.2% 4.7% 3.4%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 577.6 583.5 584.6 596.1 646.8 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1%

(BIL) Baseline 577.6 581.7 597.2 659.1 718.6 0.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%

Optimistic 577.6 583.5 621.6 740.2 800.7 1.0% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6%

Enplanements Pessimistic 653.7 660.8 661.3 682.1 729.9 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1%

(MIL) Baseline 653.7 653.2 670.5 736.9 793.6 -0.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2%

Optimistic 653.7 663.2 702.3 822.9 879.8 1.4% 5.9% 4.4% 3.2%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,627.2 5,681.2 5,671.5 5,743.5 6,180.4 1.0% -0.2% 0.2% 0.9%

(MIL) Baseline 5,627.2 5,600.8 5,725.4 6,247.6 6,745.4 -0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%

Optimistic 5,627.2 5,681.2 6,025.4 7,087.5 7,608.9 1.0% 6.1% 4.5% 3.3%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 8,743.8 8,780.1 8,731.0 8,837.1 9,280.9 0.4% -0.6% 0.1% 0.6%

(000s) Baseline 8,743.8 8,617.3 8,785.9 9,475.2 10,007.7 -1.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7%

Optimistic 8,743.8 8,854.0 9,263.4 10,532.0 11,062.1 1.3% 4.6% 3.5% 2.5%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.00 13.39 13.42 15.61 16.88 -4.4% 0.2% 3.1% 2.6%

(cents) Baseline 14.00 14.35 14.50 15.48 16.41 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5%

Optimistic 14.00 14.48 14.30 14.26 15.08 3.4% -1.2% -0.3% 0.5%

TABLE A-3

FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY

FISCAL YEARS 2012-2022
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

87

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario 2012E 2013 2014 2018 2022 2012-13 2013-14 2013-18 2013-22

International

Aviation ActivityAvailable Seat Miles Pessimistic 300.8 293.3 296.0 336.6 378.8 -2.5% 0.9% 2.8% 2.9%

(BIL) Baseline 300.8 296.4 307.6 369.7 437.3 -1.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Optimistic 300.8 303.9 313.5 387.1 467.6 1.0% 3.1% 5.0% 4.9%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 244.7 239.6 242.7 276.1 310.9 -2.1% 1.3% 2.9% 2.9%

(BIL) Baseline 244.7 242.1 252.4 303.3 358.8 -1.0% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5%

Optimistic 244.7 248.3 257.1 317.6 383.7 1.5% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0%

Enplanements Pessimistic 82.9 81.9 82.5 93.6 105.0 -1.3% 0.7% 2.7% 2.8%

(MIL) Baseline 82.9 80.4 83.5 99.5 117.0 -3.1% 3.8% 4.4% 4.3%

Optimistic 82.9 84.7 87.0 106.9 128.5 2.2% 2.7% 4.8% 4.7%

Psgr Carrier Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,405.7 1,376.0 1,381.4 1,553.2 1,728.6 -2.1% 0.4% 2.5% 2.6%

(MIL) Baseline 1,405.7 1,351.2 1,393.0 1,658.3 1,944.1 -3.9% 3.1% 4.2% 4.1%

Optimistic 1,405.7 1,427.0 1,463.2 1,789.9 2,138.2 1.5% 2.5% 4.6% 4.6%

Psgr Carrier Departures Pessimistic 613.6 614.2 612.9 670.1 731.2 0.1% -0.2% 1.8% 2.0%

(000s) Baseline 613.6 619.1 635.8 735.2 839.9 0.9% 2.7% 3.5% 3.4%

Optimistic 613.6 632.9 649.1 775.6 902.0 3.1% 2.6% 4.2% 4.0%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 14.68 14.50 14.50 15.54 16.85 -1.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.7%

(cents) Baseline 14.68 14.44 14.59 15.34 16.19 -1.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

Optimistic 14.68 14.35 14.49 14.98 15.69 -2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0%

TABLE A-4

FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*

FISCAL YEARS 2012-2022
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

88

APPENDIX B: FAA FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve 

not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on 

industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet 

reflected in recent results. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the 

volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that each year’s forecast would 

contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build 

forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on 

the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance 

from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast 

metrics during the FY 2007-2012 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced 

industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For 

this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to 

inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast 

methodology.

The table below contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the 

actual results for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the 

relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast 

took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute 

percent error was 10.5 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period 

under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2007 through FY 2012 occurred in FY

2006, FY 2007, FY 2008, FY 2009, FY 2010, and FY 2011, respectively.19 

 19 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. 

Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

89

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY

FORECAST EVALUATION

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2007 - FY 2012)

Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)

Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

ASMs 0.6% 5.2% 10.5% 17.1% 21.7%

RPMs 0.9% 4.0% 7.6% 11.9% 15.6%

Passenger Enplanements 0.8% 4.0% 7.7% 12.2% 15.4%

Mainline Yield 3.5% 4.7% 7.4% 4.8% 4.8%

IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.6% 7.5% 11.8% 17.7% 21.4%

*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longerterm trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is 

closer to the year the forecast is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an 

examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic 

shifts in accuracy occur. 

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined 

show declining variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest 

variances were found in the forecasts of ASMs and IFR Aircraft Handled, the variables most 

directly affected by exogenous events. Second, the ASM forecast variance being larger than 

the RPM forecast variance indicates a consistent underestimation of load factors, one of the 

critical elements in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. All other things being 

equal, large variances in forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the long-term 

forecasts of aviation activity, as can been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft handled 

forecasts. 

Furthermore, ASMs and aircraft handled are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond 

a relatively short time horizon, as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The 

relatively large variances in these forecasts suggest that carriers have been permanently 

removing capacity by reducing flights and by changing the mix of aircraft to satisfy demand. In 

the short term, such capacity reductions can be identified by using advance schedule 

information. However, the FAA’s longer-term forecasts rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries 

and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic activity and capacity 

deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer term 

ASM and aircraft handled forecasts, a simpler approach to projecting ASMs, such as RPMs 

divided by load factors, may improve the long run accuracy of the ASM and aircraft handled 

forecasts. It should also be noted that the low variance of the mainline passenger yield relative 

to the other metrics is due in large part to the inclusion of FY 2011-12 in the sample period. 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

90

APPENDIX C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), 

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The 

following individuals were responsible for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers

Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302

Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309

General Aviation

 Forecasts Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

 Survey Data Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

 Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

 Data Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division, APO-100

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641

Commercial Space John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation, AST-100 

(202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff

APO Websites

Forecasts/Statistical Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email

APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

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APPENDIX D: FORECAST TABLES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

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TABLE 1

ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2012 FISCAL YEAR 2013 FISCAL YEAR 2014

VARIABLE 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real GDP

(Billions of 2005$) 13,441.0 13,506.4 13,548.5 13,616.2 13,650.0 13,734.1 13,800.5 13,873.0 13,962.5 14,054.7 14,163.9 14,291.5

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 2.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 3.7%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars) 104.51 107.60 101.63 97.08 97.38 88.98 88.10 88.93 88.56 87.61 86.18 84.77

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 12.3% -20.4% -16.7% 1.2% -30.3% -3.9% 3.9% -1.7% -4.2% -6.3% -6.4%

Consumer Price Index

(1982-84 equals 100) 227.0 228.3 228.8 230.1 231.1 231.2 231.9 233.1 234.1 235.2 236.3 237.3

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 2.5% 0.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2012

U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

94

TABLE 2

GROSS DISPOSABLE CONSUMER PRICE REFINERS' ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT PERSONAL INCOME INDEX AVERAGE

YEAR (Billions 2005$) (Billions 2005$) (1982-84=100) (Dollars per barrel)Historical

2000 11,136.4 8,071.2 170.74 26.702001 11,326.2 8,318.6 176.23 25.792002 11,488.0 8,567.4 178.87 21.982003 11,724.4 8,766.0 183.09 28.012004 12,159.8 9,073.3 187.34 33.652006 12,882.8 9,544.6 200.58 59.952007 13,134.5 9,842.3 205.31 60.622008 13,272.6 10,093.4 214.42 101.52

2009 12,760.6 9,912.8 213.78 54.682010 12,986.0 9,931.4 217.42 74.612011 13,234.2 10,141.6 223.11 96.052012E 13,528.0 10,234.8 228.54 102.71

Forecast

2013 13,764.4 10,442.2 231.83 90.852014 14,118.1 10,755.7 235.70 86.782015 14,594.1 11,090.0 239.73 81.302016 15,025.8 11,416.0 243.98 83.462017 15,428.5 11,696.7 248.72 88.592018 15,808.5 11,952.5 253.61 91.922019 16,195.5 12,241.4 258.68 95.682020 16,602.3 12,545.9 263.71 98.752021 17,018.0 12,852.8 268.87 101.72

2022 17,445.1 13,179.7 274.19 104.42

2023 17,898.2 13,523.0 279.60 107.46

2024 18,336.2 13,843.1 284.98 110.00

2025 18,792.2 14,200.8 290.44 112.18

2026 19,254.0 14,534.3 295.98 114.41

2027 19,728.9 14,890.1 301.68 116.56

2028 20,213.7 15,261.5 307.43 118.60

2029 20,715.5 15,615.3 313.35 120.67

2030 21,241.0 15,983.9 319.39 121.93

2031 21,772.1 16,366.0 325.62 122.91

2032 22,320.3 16,740.5 332.09 124.05

2033 22,876.3 17,102.8 338.63 124.63

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 11.9%

2012-13 1.7% 2.0% 1.4% -11.5%

2012-22 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 0.2%2012-33 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 0.9%Source: IHS Global Insight, 30-Year Focus, Fourth Quarter 2012

U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

95

TABLE 3

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

JAPAN/PACIFIC

EUROPE/ BASIN/CHINA/OTHER

CALENDAR AFRICA/ LATIN AMERICA/ ASIA/AUSTRALIA/

YEAR CANADA MIDDLE EAST MEXICO N. ZEALAND WORLD

Historical2000 1,054.9 16,059.8 2,944.9 9,108.0 39,893.3

2006 1,229.1 18,947.7 3,489.5 11,716.8 47,784.5

2007 1,254.8 19,684.0 3,665.0 12,473.2 49,708.6

2008 1,268.5 19,911.7 3,790.4 12,855.8 50,406.3

2009 1,233.0 19,174.5 3,696.3 12,993.6 49,306.7

2010 1,272.0 19,710.6 3,905.4 13,916.5 51,289.4

2011 1,304.7 20,138.1 4,066.0 14,483.6 52,691.4

2012E 1,332.3 20,294.8 4,195.3 15,097.0 53,876.4

Forecast2013 1,358.3 20,473.9 4,345.3 15,699.8 55,075.2

2014 1,391.6 20,835.2 4,538.3 16,495.2 56,817.8

2015 1,428.3 21,371.3 4,721.6 17,388.9 58,915.8

2016 1,464.8 21,965.5 4,915.5 18,272.8 61,019.12017 1,500.8 22,563.4 5,111.6 19,183.0 63,129.4

2018 1,537.6 23,145.6 5,316.4 20,120.1 65,242.6

2019 1,574.7 23,735.2 5,532.7 21,085.7 67,413.5

2020 1,610.9 24,332.1 5,754.0 22,079.0 69,645.4

2021 1,647.2 24,935.6 5,984.9 23,116.7 71,939.2

2022 1,683.8 25,542.1 6,220.7 24,169.4 74,278.52023 1,721.8 26,157.2 6,463.7 25,227.5 76,652.3

2024 1,761.8 26,777.1 6,715.3 26,305.2 79,064.2

2025 1,802.7 27,404.5 6,977.4 27,427.3 81,551.2

2026 1,843.8 28,039.3 7,249.2 28,595.8 84,099.6

2027 1,885.8 28,688.4 7,529.1 29,802.7 86,721.1

2028 1,929.3 29,348.5 7,816.3 31,037.8 89,401.6

2029 1,973.8 30,015.8 8,116.7 32,298.5 92,136.9

2030 2,019.5 30,695.0 8,427.1 33,582.4 94,948.8

2031 2,066.8 31,388.4 8,747.9 34,886.4 97,815.1

2032 2,115.8 32,088.8 9,078.7 36,220.6 100,735.4

2033 2,166.5 32,802.1 9,422.7 37,584.5 103,721.4

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.3% 2.5%

2012-13 1.9% 0.9% 3.6% 4.0% 2.2%

2012-22 2.4% 2.3% 4.0% 4.8% 3.3%

2012-33 2.3% 2.3% 3.9% 4.4% 3.2%

Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 23 November 2012

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

96

TABLE 4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)

NORTH

CALENDAR AMERICA UNITED

YEAR (NAFTA) EUROZONE KINGDOM JAPAN CHINA

Historical*

2000 13,516.7 9,388.7 1,984.1 4,309.5 1,430.3

2006 15,599.7 10,457.7 2,355.5 4,649.7 2,567.3

2007 15,919.2 10,769.3 2,441.1 4,750.7 2,931.9

2008 15,906.7 10,798.1 2,417.5 4,699.7 3,213.3

2009 15,379.3 10,327.3 2,321.4 4,440.4 3,509.3

2010 15,800.2 10,533.2 2,363.2 4,643.1 3,876.1

2011 16,126.2 10,692.7 2,383.8 4,609.1 4,236.3

2012E 16,495.9 10,648.4 2,382.7 4,686.2 4,559.7

Forecast

2013 16,840.0 10,610.2 2,409.2 4,700.6 4,916.9

2014 17,344.6 10,682.2 2,447.1 4,794.1 5,323.4

2015 17,923.8 10,850.1 2,511.7 4,909.2 5,759.8

2016 18,450.9 11,060.9 2,574.0 4,977.1 6,214.2

2017 18,950.2 11,269.6 2,635.0 5,049.3 6,681.2

2018 19,435.9 11,470.8 2,695.4 5,119.1 7,170.8

2019 19,936.2 11,671.6 2,756.0 5,192.2 7,680.8

2020 20,458.2 11,872.1 2,818.8 5,264.3 8,210.5

2021 20,987.9 12,073.7 2,882.5 5,332.3 8,770.3

2022 21,540.3 12,273.8 2,945.4 5,391.3 9,341.7

2023 22,107.4 12,474.8 3,008.7 5,440.8 9,917.2

2024 22,684.0 12,677.3 3,071.6 5,488.4 10,500.4

2025 23,278.0 12,881.4 3,135.5 5,534.9 11,114.2

2026 23,873.1 13,087.0 3,200.4 5,581.1 11,761.8

2027 24,483.0 13,293.3 3,268.6 5,627.9 12,429.9

2028 25,105.5 13,500.3 3,337.5 5,674.2 13,113.8

2029 25,745.4 13,707.0 3,406.6 5,718.4 13,811.7

2030 26,419.7 13,914.6 3,478.1 5,761.0 14,521.7

2031 27,108.0 14,126.4 3,551.5 5,802.6 15,242.4

2032 27,805.0 14,338.1 3,625.8 5,843.2 15,978.2

2033 28,519.4 14,551.5 3,701.5 5,882.3 16,729.8

Avg Annual Growth

2000-12 1.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 10.1%

2012-13 2.1% -0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 7.8%

2012-22 2.7% 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 7.4%

2012-33 2.6% 1.5% 2.1% 1.1% 6.4%

Source: IHS Global Insight, GDP Components Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly), Release date 23 November 2012

INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS 

– SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

97

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*

2000 641.2 56.4 697.6 512.8 181.8 694.6

2006 668.4 71.6 740.0 582.4 208.5 790.9

2007 690.1 75.3 765.3 600.5 221.2 821.7

2008 680.7 78.3 759.1 594.6 233.8 828.5

2009 630.8 73.6 704.4 548.6 221.3 769.9

2010 635.2 77.4 712.6 555.8 231.0 786.8

2011 650.1 81.0 731.1 572.2 242.5 814.6

2012E 653.7 82.9 736.7 577.6 244.7 822.3

Forecast2013 653.2 83.5 736.7 581.9 244.1 826.0

2014 670.5 86.7 757.2 597.2 254.4 851.6

2015 691.6 91.0 782.6 614.7 267.8 882.6

2016 710.3 95.1 805.4 631.6 280.6 912.2

2017 724.8 99.1 823.9 646.4 293.2 939.6

2018 736.9 103.1 839.9 659.1 305.7 964.8

2019 749.4 107.2 856.6 672.2 318.8 991.0

2020 763.5 111.6 875.1 687.0 332.6 1,019.6

2021 778.2 116.1 894.4 702.5 346.7 1,049.2

2022 793.6 120.9 914.5 718.6 361.5 1,080.1

2023 809.1 125.9 934.9 734.9 376.7 1,111.6

2024 822.8 131.0 953.8 749.8 392.2 1,142.1

2025 837.9 136.3 974.2 766.0 408.4 1,174.4

2026 852.2 141.6 993.8 781.7 425.0 1,206.7

2027 867.1 147.2 1,014.3 798.1 442.1 1,240.2

2028 882.4 153.0 1,035.4 815.0 459.9 1,274.9

2029 897.3 159.0 1,056.3 831.6 478.1 1,309.7

2030 913.0 165.4 1,078.4 849.1 497.5 1,346.6

2031 929.3 172.0 1,101.3 867.3 517.4 1,384.7

2032 945.3 178.7 1,124.1 885.3 537.8 1,423.1

2033 961.0 185.7 1,146.8 903.2 558.8 1,462.0

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 0.2% 3.3% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.4%

2012-13 -0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% -0.2% 0.4%

2012-22 2.0% 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 4.0% 2.8%

2012-33 1.9% 3.9% 2.1% 2.2% 4.0% 2.8%

*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 5

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

98

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*2000 726.6 512.8 70.6 239.3 181.8 76.0 965.9 694.6 71.9

2006 740.2 582.4 78.7 261.3 208.5 79.8 1,001.5 790.9 79.0

2007 752.5 600.5 79.8 275.9 221.2 80.2 1,028.4 821.7 79.9

2008 749.6 594.6 79.3 292.7 233.8 79.9 1,042.4 828.5 79.5

2009 682.5 548.6 80.4 283.3 221.3 78.1 965.8 769.9 79.7

2010 680.0 555.8 81.7 281.3 231.0 82.1 961.3 786.8 81.8

2011 693.5 572.2 82.5 300.4 242.5 80.7 993.9 814.6 82.0

2012E 694.4 577.6 83.2 300.8 244.7 81.3 995.2 822.3 82.6

Forecast2013 694.2 581.9 83.8 299.3 244.1 81.6 993.5 826.0 83.1

2014 710.7 597.2 84.0 310.1 254.4 82.1 1,020.8 851.6 83.4

2015 730.0 614.7 84.2 326.4 267.8 82.1 1,056.3 882.6 83.5

2016 748.7 631.6 84.4 341.9 280.6 82.1 1,090.5 912.2 83.6

2017 765.0 646.4 84.5 357.2 293.2 82.1 1,122.2 939.6 83.7

2018 779.0 659.1 84.6 372.4 305.7 82.1 1,151.5 964.8 83.8

2019 793.7 672.2 84.7 388.3 318.8 82.1 1,181.9 991.0 83.8

2020 810.4 687.0 84.8 405.0 332.6 82.1 1,215.4 1,019.6 83.9

2021 828.0 702.5 84.8 422.2 346.7 82.1 1,250.2 1,049.2 83.9

2022 846.4 718.6 84.9 440.2 361.5 82.1 1,286.6 1,080.1 83.9

2023 865.2 734.9 84.9 458.7 376.7 82.1 1,323.8 1,111.6 84.0

2024 882.2 749.8 85.0 477.6 392.2 82.1 1,359.8 1,142.1 84.0

2025 900.8 766.0 85.0 497.3 408.4 82.1 1,398.1 1,174.4 84.0

2026 919.0 781.7 85.1 517.4 425.0 82.1 1,436.4 1,206.7 84.0

2027 937.9 798.1 85.1 538.3 442.1 82.1 1,476.2 1,240.2 84.0

2028 957.6 815.0 85.1 559.9 459.9 82.1 1,517.5 1,274.9 84.0

2029 976.9 831.6 85.1 582.1 478.1 82.1 1,558.9 1,309.7 84.0

2030 997.2 849.1 85.1 605.6 497.5 82.1 1,602.8 1,346.6 84.0

2031 1,018.4 867.3 85.2 629.8 517.4 82.1 1,648.3 1,384.7 84.0

2032 1,039.4 885.3 85.2 654.7 537.8 82.1 1,694.1 1,423.1 84.0

2033 1,060.3 903.2 85.2 680.3 558.8 82.1 1,740.6 1,462.0 84.0

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.2%

2012-13 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 0.3% -0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

2012-22 2.0% 2.2% 0.2% 3.9% 4.0% 0.1% 2.6% 2.8% 0.2%

2012-33 2.0% 2.2% 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% 0.1%

*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 6

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

99

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL

FISCAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONALYEAR (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)Historical*2000 20.9 24.3 11.2 56.4 87.1 36.3 58.4 181.82006 22.5 35.2 13.9 71.6 93.9 53.6 61.1 208.52007 24.1 37.6 13.6 75.3 102.2 57.7 61.4 221.2

2008 26.0 39.1 13.2 78.3 112.7 60.7 60.4 233.82009 24.7 36.8 12.0 73.6 108.9 57.7 54.7 221.32010 24.5 39.9 12.9 77.3 108.6 63.1 59.2 231.02011 25.3 42.2 13.5 81.0 111.7 67.2 63.6 242.52012E 24.7 44.2 14.0 82.9 107.9 70.4 66.4 244.7Forecast2013 23.5 45.8 14.2 83.5 102.7 74.2 67.3 244.12014 24.2 47.6 14.9 86.7 106.1 77.3 71.0 254.4

2015 25.1 50.1 15.8 91.0 110.8 81.7 75.3 267.82016 26.0 52.4 16.6 95.1 115.4 85.9 79.3 280.6

2017 26.9 54.8 17.5 99.1 119.9 90.0 83.2 293.2

2018 27.7 57.0 18.3 103.1 124.3 94.1 87.2 305.72019 28.6 59.5 19.1 107.2 128.9 98.4 91.4 318.72020 29.5 62.1 20.0 111.6 133.7 103.1 95.6 332.5

2021 30.5 64.8 20.9 116.1 138.7 108.0 100.0 346.62022 31.4 67.7 21.8 120.9 143.8 113.1 104.4 361.4

2023 32.4 70.8 22.7 125.9 149.2 118.6 108.9 376.6

2024 33.5 73.9 23.6 131.0 154.6 124.2 113.4 392.2

2025 34.5 77.2 24.6 136.3 160.3 130.0 118.1 408.4

2026 35.6 80.5 25.5 141.6 166.1 136.0 122.9 424.9

2027 36.7 84.0 26.5 147.2 172.0 142.2 127.9 442.1

2028 37.8 87.7 27.6 153.0 178.2 148.7 132.9 459.8

2029 38.9 91.5 28.6 159.0 184.6 155.4 138.1 478.12030 40.1 95.6 29.7 165.4 191.3 162.7 143.4 497.4

2031 41.4 99.8 30.8 172.0 198.3 170.2 148.8 517.4

2032 42.7 104.2 31.9 178.7 205.4 178.0 154.4 537.82033 44.0 108.8 33.0 185.7 212.7 186.1 160.0 558.8Avg Annual Growth2000-12 1.4% 5.1% 1.7% 3.3% 2.3% 5.8% 0.8% 2.7%2012-13 -5.0% 3.8% 0.9% 0.7% -4.8% 5.3% 1.4% -0.2%

2012-22 2.4% 4.4% 4.5% 3.8% 2.9% 4.9% 4.6% 4.0%

2012-33 2.8% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.3% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 7

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1

TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

100

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR U.S./CANADA

YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TRANSBORDER TOTAL

Historical*

2000 53.0 40.8 26.2 20.5 140.5

2006 49.8 47.1 26.1 21.0 96.9

2007 53.3 48.6 26.3 21.5 101.1

2008 57.1 49.8 25.8 21.7 104.6

2009 55.0 48.0 24.4 20.2 99.6

2010 55.9 53.1 26.7 21.8 157.5

2011 58.1 57.2 27.8 22.5 165.6

2012E 59.1 60.3 29.3 23.1 171.8

Forecast

2013 60.2 62.2 30.3 23.6 176.4

2014 62.7 65.1 32.0 24.4 184.3

2015 66.2 68.4 34.0 25.4 193.9

2016 69.5 71.7 35.7 26.3 203.2

2017 72.7 75.1 37.5 27.1 212.4

2018 75.8 78.6 39.3 27.9 221.6

2019 79.0 82.3 41.1 28.8 231.2

2020 82.3 86.2 43.0 29.7 241.2

2021 85.6 90.3 44.9 30.6 251.4

2022 89.1 94.6 46.8 31.5 262.0

2023 92.7 99.0 48.7 32.5 272.9

2024 96.3 103.6 50.7 33.5 284.1

2025 100.0 108.4 52.7 34.5 295.7

2026 103.8 113.4 54.8 35.5 307.5

2027 107.7 118.6 56.9 36.6 319.8

2028 111.7 124.0 59.0 37.7 332.5

2029 115.9 129.7 61.1 38.9 345.6

2030 120.2 135.7 63.3 40.1 359.3

2031 124.7 141.9 65.6 41.3 373.4

2032 129.3 148.3 67.8 42.6 388.0

2033 134.0 155.0 70.1 43.9 402.9

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 0.9% 3.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.7%

2012-13 1.9% 3.0% 3.5% 2.2% 2.6%

2012-22 4.2% 4.6% 4.8% 3.1% 4.3%

2012-33 4.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.1% 4.1%

Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada.

TABLE 8

U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

101

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*2000 129.3 230.6 145.0 799.8 3,223.2 995.7

2006 120.1 215.0 135.7 871.4 2,911.5 1,068.8

2007 120.4 216.1 136.6 870.2 2,939.0 1,073.7

2008 120.8 218.6 138.2 873.5 2,985.2 1,091.4

2009 121.8 219.0 140.0 869.7 3,008.1 1,093.1

2010 121.8 216.4 139.7 875.0 2,983.8 1,104.02011 122.5 216.8 141.1 880.1 2,992.7 1,114.2

2012E 123.4 214.0 141.5 883.6 2,949.7 1,116.2

Forecast2013 124.0 213.8 141.9 890.8 2,923.5 1,121.22014 124.1 214.9 142.4 890.7 2,934.7 1,124.7

2015 124.3 215.5 143.0 888.8 2,942.5 1,127.72016 124.3 216.1 143.4 889.3 2,950.2 1,132.62017 124.5 216.8 144.0 891.8 2,958.3 1,140.4

2018 124.7 217.4 144.6 894.4 2,966.5 1,148.7

2019 124.9 218.1 145.3 897.0 2,973.6 1,156.9

2020 125.0 218.7 145.8 899.9 2,979.4 1,165.1

2021 125.3 219.3 146.5 902.7 2,984.9 1,173.1

2022 125.5 219.8 147.1 905.6 2,988.8 1,181.1

2023 125.7 220.4 147.7 908.4 2,992.0 1,189.0

2024 125.9 220.9 148.3 911.3 2,995.0 1,197.42025 126.2 221.4 149.0 914.1 2,997.6 1,205.5

2026 126.4 222.0 149.6 917.3 3,000.6 1,214.22027 126.6 222.5 150.2 920.4 3,003.2 1,222.7

2028 126.8 223.0 150.8 923.6 3,005.3 1,231.32029 127.0 223.5 151.4 926.8 3,007.1 1,240.02030 127.2 223.9 152.0 930.0 3,007.8 1,248.72031 127.4 224.4 152.6 933.3 3,008.2 1,257.3

2032 127.6 224.8 153.2 936.6 3,008.5 1,266.02033 127.8 225.3 153.8 939.8 3,008.6 1,274.9

*Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

TABLE 9

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

102

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL (Millions) (Billions)

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*

2000 561.5 53.3 614.8 490.0 181.0 670.9

2006 516.2 68.1 584.4 513.9 206.8 720.7

2007 533.9 71.9 605.7 529.9 219.5 749.4

2008 521.6 74.8 596.5 521.3 231.9 753.3

2009 476.8 71.0 547.8 478.2 220.0 698.2

2010 473.6 74.6 548.2 480.7 229.6 710.4

2011 488.4 78.6 567.0 496.7 241.2 737.9

2012E 494.8 79.8 574.6 503.4 242.7 746.1

Forecast

2013 494.6 80.4 574.9 507.3 242.1 749.4

2014 506.9 83.5 590.4 520.0 252.4 772.4

2015 522.3 87.7 609.9 534.4 265.7 800.1

2016 535.7 91.7 627.3 548.1 278.4 826.5

2017 546.3 95.6 641.9 560.4 290.9 851.3

2018 555.0 99.5 654.5 570.7 303.4 874.1

2019 564.1 103.6 667.7 581.5 316.4 897.8

2020 574.3 107.9 682.2 593.5 330.1 923.5

2021 585.0 112.3 697.4 606.0 344.1 950.1

2022 596.1 117.0 713.2 619.0 358.8 977.8

2023 607.3 121.9 729.2 632.1 374.0 1,006.1

2024 617.2 126.9 744.1 643.9 389.4 1,033.4

2025 628.0 132.1 760.1 656.8 405.6 1,062.4

2026 638.2 137.4 775.6 669.1 422.0 1,091.1

2027 648.8 142.9 791.7 681.8 439.1 1,121.0

2028 659.7 148.6 808.4 695.0 456.8 1,151.8

2029 670.3 154.5 824.8 707.8 475.0 1,182.8

2030 681.5 160.8 842.3 721.4 494.2 1,215.6

2031 693.1 167.3 860.4 735.4 514.0 1,249.4

2032 704.4 174.0 878.4 749.2 534.3 1,283.5

2033 715.5 180.9 896.4 762.8 555.3 1,318.0

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -1.0% 3.4% -0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.9%

2012-13 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% -0.2% 0.5%

2012-22 1.9% 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 4.0% 2.7%

2012-33 1.8% 4.0% 2.1% 2.0% 4.0% 2.7%

*Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 10

U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

103

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*2000 688.3 490.0 71.2 238.0 181.0 76.0 926.2 670.9 72.4

2006 648.7 513.9 79.2 258.9 206.8 79.9 907.6 720.7 79.4

2007 659.0 529.9 80.4 273.4 219.5 80.3 932.4 749.4 80.4

2008 650.2 521.3 80.2 290.1 231.9 80.0 940.3 753.3 80.1

2009 587.8 478.2 81.4 281.5 220.0 78.2 869.3 698.2 80.3

2010 581.5 480.7 82.7 279.5 229.6 82.2 861.0 710.4 82.5

2011 594.4 497.0 83.6 298.6 241.2 80.8 893.0 738.2 82.7

2012E 598.7 503.4 84.1 297.9 242.7 81.5 896.6 746.1 83.2

Forecast2013 598.9 507.3 84.7 296.4 242.1 81.7 895.3 749.4 83.7

2014 612.0 520.0 85.0 307.1 252.4 82.2 919.1 772.4 84.0

2015 627.4 534.4 85.2 323.3 265.7 82.2 950.6 800.1 84.22016 642.1 548.1 85.4 338.7 278.4 82.2 980.8 826.5 84.3

2017 655.3 560.4 85.5 353.9 290.9 82.2 1,009.2 851.3 84.4

2018 666.4 570.7 85.6 369.1 303.4 82.2 1,035.5 874.1 84.4

2019 678.0 581.5 85.8 384.9 316.4 82.2 1,062.9 897.8 84.5

2020 691.2 593.5 85.9 401.5 330.1 82.2 1,092.7 923.5 84.5

2021 705.1 606.0 85.9 418.6 344.1 82.2 1,123.7 950.1 84.6

2022 719.6 619.0 86.0 436.5 358.8 82.2 1,156.1 977.8 84.6

2023 734.3 632.1 86.1 455.0 374.0 82.2 1,189.2 1,006.1 84.6

2024 747.5 643.9 86.1 473.8 389.4 82.2 1,221.3 1,033.4 84.6

2025 762.0 656.8 86.2 493.4 405.6 82.2 1,255.4 1,062.4 84.6

2026 775.8 669.1 86.2 513.5 422.0 82.2 1,289.2 1,091.1 84.6

2027 790.2 681.8 86.3 534.2 439.1 82.2 1,324.4 1,121.0 84.6

2028 805.1 695.0 86.3 555.7 456.8 82.2 1,360.8 1,151.8 84.6

2029 819.6 707.8 86.4 577.8 475.0 82.2 1,397.4 1,182.8 84.6

2030 834.9 721.4 86.4 601.3 494.2 82.2 1,436.1 1,215.6 84.6

2031 850.8 735.4 86.4 625.4 514.0 82.2 1,476.2 1,249.4 84.62032 866.5 749.2 86.5 650.1 534.3 82.2 1,516.6 1,283.5 84.6

2033 881.9 762.8 86.5 675.6 555.3 82.2 1,557.5 1,318.0 84.6

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -1.2% 0.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6% -0.3% 0.9% 1.2%

2012-13 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% -0.5% -0.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%

2012-22 1.9% 2.1% 0.2% 3.9% 4.0% 0.1% 2.6% 2.7% 0.2%

2012-33 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 11

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

104

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

FISCALYEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL

Historical*

2000 20.9 21.2 11.2 53.3

2006 22.5 31.7 13.9 68.1

2007 24.1 34.2 13.6 71.9

2008 26.0 35.6 13.2 74.8

2009 24.7 34.3 12.0 71.0

2010 24.5 37.2 12.9 74.6

2011 25.3 39.8 13.5 78.6

2012E 24.7 41.0 14.0 79.8

Forecast

2013 23.5 42.7 14.2 80.4

2014 24.2 44.4 14.9 83.5

2015 25.1 46.7 15.8 87.7

2016 26.0 49.0 16.6 91.7

2017 26.9 51.2 17.5 95.6

2018 27.7 53.5 18.3 99.5

2019 28.6 55.8 19.1 103.6

2020 29.5 58.4 20.0 107.9

2021 30.5 61.0 20.9 112.3

2022 31.4 63.8 21.8 117.0

2023 32.4 66.8 22.7 121.9

2024 33.5 69.8 23.6 126.9

2025 34.5 73.0 24.6 132.1

2026 35.6 76.3 25.5 137.4

2027 36.7 79.7 26.5 142.9

2028 37.8 83.3 27.6 148.6

2029 38.9 87.0 28.6 154.5

2030 40.1 91.0 29.7 160.8

2031 41.4 95.2 30.8 167.3

2032 42.7 99.5 31.9 174.0

2033 44.0 103.9 33.0 180.9

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 1.4% 5.7% 1.9% 3.4%

2012-13 -5.0% 4.1% 0.8% 0.7%

2012-22 2.4% 4.5% 4.5% 3.9%

2012-33 2.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 12

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

105

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR

Historical*2000 109.9 87.1 79.2 51.4 35.5 69.0 76.6 58.4 76.2 238.0 181.0 76.0

2006 115.8 93.9 81.1 69.4 51.9 74.9 73.7 61.1 82.8 258.9 206.8 79.9

2007 126.6 102.2 80.7 72.7 55.9 76.9 74.1 61.4 82.9 273.4 219.5 80.3

2008 141.0 112.7 80.0 74.2 58.8 79.3 74.9 60.4 80.6 290.1 231.9 80.0

2009 138.2 108.9 78.9 73.5 56.4 76.8 69.9 54.7 78.3 281.5 220.0 78.2

2010 130.9 108.6 82.9 78.0 61.8 79.2 70.5 59.2 84.1 279.5 229.6 82.2

2011 138.3 111.7 80.7 82.5 65.9 79.9 77.8 63.6 81.8 298.6 241.2 80.8

2012E 132.3 107.9 81.6 84.7 68.5 80.9 81.0 66.4 82.0 297.9 242.7 81.5

Forecast2013 125.6 102.7 81.7 88.9 72.2 81.2 81.8 67.3 82.2 296.4 242.1 81.7

2014 129.4 106.1 82.0 91.2 75.2 82.4 86.4 71.0 82.2 307.06 252.4 82.2

2015 135.1 110.8 82.0 96.5 79.5 82.4 91.7 75.3 82.2 323.26 265.7 82.2

2016 140.7 115.4 82.0 101.5 83.7 82.4 96.5 79.3 82.2 338.66 278.3 82.2

2017 146.2 119.9 82.0 106.4 87.7 82.4 101.3 83.2 82.2 353.92 290.9 82.2

2018 151.6 124.3 82.0 111.3 91.8 82.4 106.2 87.2 82.2 369.09 303.3 82.2

2019 157.2 128.9 82.0 116.5 96.0 82.4 111.2 91.4 82.2 384.88 316.3 82.2

2020 163.1 133.7 82.0 122.1 100.7 82.4 116.4 95.6 82.2 401.54 330.0 82.2

2021 169.1 138.7 82.0 127.9 105.4 82.4 121.7 100.0 82.2 418.64 344.1 82.2

2022 175.4 143.8 82.0 134.0 110.5 82.4 127.1 104.4 82.2 436.54 358.8 82.2

2023 181.9 149.2 82.0 140.5 115.9 82.4 132.5 108.9 82.2 454.97 373.9 82.2

2024 188.6 154.6 82.0 147.2 121.4 82.4 138.0 113.4 82.2 473.82 389.4 82.2

2025 195.5 160.3 82.0 154.2 127.2 82.4 143.7 118.1 82.2 493.44 405.6 82.2

2026 202.5 166.1 82.0 161.4 133.0 82.4 149.6 122.9 82.2 513.45 422.0 82.2

2027 209.8 172.0 82.0 168.8 139.2 82.4 155.6 127.9 82.2 534.23 439.1 82.2

2028 217.4 178.2 82.0 176.6 145.6 82.4 161.8 132.9 82.2 555.72 456.7 82.2

2029 225.1 184.6 82.0 184.7 152.2 82.4 168.0 138.1 82.2 577.84 474.9 82.2

2030 233.3 191.3 82.0 193.4 159.4 82.4 174.5 143.4 82.2 601.26 494.2 82.2

2031 241.8 198.3 82.0 202.5 166.9 82.4 181.1 148.8 82.2 625.38 514.0 82.2

2032 250.5 205.4 82.0 211.8 174.6 82.4 187.8 154.4 82.2 650.11 534.3 82.2

2033 259.4 212.7 82.0 221.5 182.6 82.4 194.7 160.0 82.2 675.61 555.3 82.2

Avg Annual Growth

2000-12 1.6% 1.8% 0.2% 4.2% 5.6% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.9% 2.5% 0.6%

2012-13 -5.0% -4.8% 0.2% 5.0% 5.5% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 0.3% -0.5% -0.2% 0.3%

2012-22 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% 4.7% 4.9% 0.2% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 3.9% 4.0% 0.1%

2012-33 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 13

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

106

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEM

YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)

Historical*

2000 148.8 233.7 179.5 307.8 236.6 164.5

2006 150.5 229.4 175.2 274.4 221.4 165.7

2007 150.6 229.2 176.2 279.6 222.3 166.3

2008 150.3 229.2 177.3 292.3 224.9 167.5

2009 151.2 230.0 175.8 291.3 223.7 168.9

2010 151.9 231.7 171.5 287.2 220.9 169.1

2011 152.3 230.5 172.1 282.9 221.0 170.0

2012E 152.7 230.4 171.8 278.3 219.4 169.9

Forecast

2013 153.0 231.4 172.5 279.3 219.3 170.0

2014 153.3 233.0 173.0 281.1 220.4 170.7

2015 153.6 233.5 173.5 281.8 220.9 171.4

2016 153.8 234.0 174.0 282.6 221.4 171.9

2017 153.9 234.5 174.5 283.3 222.0 172.4

2018 154.1 235.0 175.0 284.1 222.5 173.0

2019 154.2 235.5 175.5 284.8 223.0 173.6

2020 154.4 236.0 176.0 285.6 223.5 174.2

2021 154.7 236.5 176.5 286.3 224.0 174.8

2022 155.0 237.0 177.0 287.1 224.5 175.5

2023 155.3 237.5 177.5 287.8 224.9 176.1

2024 155.6 238.0 178.0 288.6 225.4 176.8

2025 155.9 238.5 178.5 289.3 225.8 177.5

2026 156.2 239.0 179.0 290.1 226.3 178.2

2027 156.5 239.5 179.5 290.8 226.7 178.8

2028 156.8 240.0 180.0 291.6 227.1 179.5

2029 157.1 240.5 180.5 292.3 227.6 180.2

2030 157.4 241.0 181.0 293.1 227.9 180.8

2031 157.7 241.5 181.5 293.8 228.3 181.5

2032 158.0 242.0 182.0 294.6 228.7 182.2

2033 158.4 242.5 182.5 295.3 229.1 182.8

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 14

INTERNATIONAL 

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

107

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL SYSTEM

YEAR (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)

Historical*2000 872.6 4,168.1 1,675.2 5,219.9 3,397.3 1,091.4

2006 995.4 4,175.4 1,637.0 4,390.4 3,037.0 1,233.4

2007 992.8 4,247.8 1,634.3 4,515.1 3,054.2 1,237.2

2008 999.4 4,332.7 1,651.6 4,583.5 3,100.1 1,262.9

2009 1,003.0 4,402.4 1,645.6 4,549.9 3,097.6 1,274.6

2010 1,015.1 4,433.0 1,660.1 4,586.6 3,072.5 1,295.6

2011 1,016.9 4,414.7 1,655.3 4,706.9 3,067.5 1,301.3

2012E 1,017.3 4,361.4 1,668.2 4,725.1 3,040.8 1,298.4

Forecast2013 1,025.8 4,368.0 1,690.5 4,749.7 3,012.5 1,303.5

2014 1,025.8 4,390.4 1,695.6 4,754.5 3,023.4 1,308.2

2015 1,023.2 4,413.0 1,701.7 4,759.3 3,030.1 1,311.7

2016 1,023.2 4,435.7 1,707.1 4,764.1 3,036.6 1,317.4

2017 1,025.8 4,458.5 1,712.0 4,768.9 3,043.1 1,326.2

2018 1,028.3 4,481.4 1,716.4 4,773.8 3,049.6 1,335.5

2019 1,030.8 4,504.4 1,720.6 4,778.6 3,055.1 1,344.8

2020 1,033.3 4,527.6 1,724.6 4,783.4 3,059.2 1,353.7

2021 1,035.8 4,550.8 1,728.3 4,788.2 3,063.2 1,362.4

2022 1,038.4 4,574.2 1,731.8 4,793.1 3,065.6 1,371.1

2023 1,040.9 4,597.7 1,735.0 4,797.9 3,067.3 1,379.7

2024 1,043.4 4,621.4 1,738.0 4,802.8 3,068.6 1,388.8

2025 1,045.9 4,645.1 1,740.7 4,807.6 3,069.7 1,397.7

2026 1,048.4 4,669.0 1,743.3 4,812.5 3,071.2 1,406.8

2027 1,051.0 4,693.0 1,745.6 4,817.4 3,072.4 1,415.9

2028 1,053.5 4,717.1 1,747.8 4,822.2 3,073.1 1,424.8

2029 1,056.0 4,741.4 1,749.9 4,827.1 3,073.5 1,434.0

2030 1,058.5 4,765.8 1,751.8 4,832.0 3,072.7 1,443.1

2031 1,061.0 4,790.3 1,753.5 4,836.9 3,071.8 1,452.1

2032 1,063.6 4,814.9 1,755.1 4,841.7 3,070.7 1,461.2

2033 1,066.1 4,839.6 1,756.6 4,846.6 3,069.5 1,470.4

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 15

INTERNATIONAL 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

108

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*

2000 14.03 18.78 10.46 14.00 13.06 17.49

2006 12.36 14.08 11.63 13.25 12.15 13.84

2007 12.45 13.85 12.45 13.86 12.45 13.86

2008 13.11 13.97 13.37 14.25 13.19 14.06

2009 11.95 12.78 11.68 12.49 11.87 12.69

2010 12.87 13.53 12.84 13.49 12.86 13.52

2011 13.62 13.95 14.09 14.43 13.77 14.11

2012E 14.10 14.10 14.74 14.74 14.31 14.31

Forecast

2013 14.45 14.24 14.44 14.23 14.45 14.24

2014 14.60 14.16 14.59 14.15 14.60 14.15

2015 14.82 14.12 14.75 14.06 14.79 14.10

2016 15.09 14.14 14.93 13.99 15.04 14.09

2017 15.35 14.11 15.13 13.90 15.28 14.04

2018 15.59 14.05 15.34 13.82 15.50 13.97

2019 15.83 13.99 15.55 13.74 15.73 13.90

2020 16.06 13.92 15.76 13.66 15.95 13.83

2021 16.30 13.85 15.97 13.57 16.18 13.75

2022 16.53 13.78 16.19 13.49 16.40 13.67

2023 16.77 13.71 16.41 13.41 16.63 13.60

2024 16.99 13.63 16.62 13.33 16.85 13.52

2025 17.22 13.55 16.84 13.25 17.07 13.43

2026 17.44 13.47 17.06 13.17 17.29 13.35

2027 17.67 13.39 17.29 13.10 17.52 13.27

2028 17.90 13.30 17.52 13.02 17.75 13.19

2029 18.13 13.22 17.75 12.95 17.98 13.11

2030 18.35 13.13 18.00 12.88 18.21 13.03

2031 18.58 13.04 18.25 12.81 18.44 12.94

2032 18.81 12.95 18.50 12.73 18.68 12.86

2033 19.04 12.85 18.75 12.66 18.92 12.77

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 0.0% -2.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.8% -1.7%

2012-13 2.5% 1.0% -2.0% -3.4% 1.0% -0.5%

2012-22 1.6% -0.2% 0.9% -0.9% 1.4% -0.5%

2012-33 1.4% -0.4% 1.2% -0.7% 1.3% -0.5%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 16

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE 
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

109

ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $

YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*

2000 9.73 13.02 13.00 17.41 9.99 13.37 10.46 14.00

2006 11.64 13.26 12.68 14.45 10.73 12.23 11.63 13.25

2007 12.46 13.87 13.37 14.88 11.61 12.92 12.45 13.86

2008 13.29 14.16 14.19 15.12 12.73 13.57 13.37 14.25

2009 11.25 12.02 12.99 13.89 11.20 11.97 11.68 12.49

2010 12.73 13.39 13.33 14.01 12.50 13.14 12.83 13.49

2011 13.48 13.81 15.13 15.50 14.07 14.41 14.09 14.43

2012E 13.96 13.96 15.72 15.72 14.99 14.99 14.74 14.74

Forecast

2013 13.72 13.52 14.94 14.72 14.99 14.78 14.44 14.23

2014 13.88 13.46 15.06 14.61 15.17 14.71 14.59 14.15

2015 14.05 13.39 15.17 14.46 15.35 14.63 14.75 14.06

2016 14.22 13.32 15.34 14.37 15.55 14.57 14.93 13.99

2017 14.43 13.26 15.50 14.24 15.75 14.47 15.13 13.90

2018 14.64 13.19 15.68 14.13 15.99 14.41 15.34 13.82

2019 14.85 13.12 15.86 14.01 16.21 14.32 15.55 13.74

2020 15.07 13.06 16.04 13.90 16.43 14.24 15.76 13.66

2021 15.29 12.99 16.22 13.78 16.66 14.16 15.97 13.57

2022 15.51 12.93 16.41 13.68 16.90 14.09 16.19 13.49

2023 15.74 12.86 16.59 13.56 17.14 14.01 16.41 13.41

2024 15.96 12.80 16.77 13.45 17.37 13.93 16.62 13.33

2025 16.18 12.73 16.95 13.34 17.62 13.86 16.84 13.25

2026 16.41 12.67 17.14 13.23 17.86 13.79 17.06 13.17

2027 16.64 12.61 17.33 13.13 18.12 13.72 17.29 13.10

2028 16.87 12.54 17.53 13.03 18.37 13.66 17.52 13.02

2029 17.11 12.48 17.73 12.93 18.64 13.59 17.75 12.95

2030 17.36 12.42 17.95 12.84 18.91 13.53 18.00 12.88

2031 17.61 12.36 18.18 12.76 19.19 13.47 18.25 12.81

2032 17.87 12.30 18.38 12.65 19.48 13.41 18.50 12.73

2033 18.13 12.23 18.59 12.55 19.77 13.34 18.75 12.66

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 3.1% 0.6% 1.6% -0.8% 3.4% 1.0% 2.9% 0.4%

2012-13 -1.7% -3.1% -5.0% -6.3% 0.0% -1.4% -2.0% -3.4%

2012-22 1.1% -0.8% 0.4% -1.4% 1.2% -0.6% 0.9% -0.9%

2012-33 1.3% -0.6% 0.8% -1.1% 1.3% -0.6% 1.2% -0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 17

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

110

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $ CURRENT $ FY 2012 $YEAR (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)Historical*

2000 71.49 95.69 79.35 106.21 73.57 98.47

2006 194.69 221.82 204.69 233.22 197.72 225.28

2007 194.01 216.14 203.31 226.32 196.90 219.18

2008 292.64 311.82 314.57 335.27 299.74 319.47

2009 202.31 216.28 208.41 222.80 204.35 218.46

2010 219.19 230.40 220.08 231.33 219.49 230.71

2011 274.41 281.09 271.77 278.39 273.44 280.10

2012E 299.72 299.72 287.24 287.24 291.52 291.52

Forecast

2013 270.89 267.04 259.61 255.92 263.48 259.74

2014 257.26 249.44 246.55 239.05 250.22 242.61

2015 242.07 230.76 231.99 221.15 235.44 224.45

2016 244.17 228.72 234.00 219.19 237.49 222.46

2017 256.22 235.43 245.55 225.62 249.21 228.99

2018 266.16 239.85 255.08 229.86 258.88 233.29

2019 276.67 244.43 265.15 234.26 269.10 237.75

2020 285.69 247.58 273.79 237.27 277.87 240.81

2021 294.20 250.07 281.95 239.65 286.15 243.23

2022 301.97 251.69 289.40 241.21 293.71 244.80

2023 310.38 253.70 297.46 243.14 301.89 246.76

2024 317.76 254.83 304.53 244.21 309.07 247.85

2025 324.14 255.05 310.65 244.43 315.28 248.08

2026 330.42 255.13 316.67 244.51 321.38 248.15

2027 336.51 254.92 322.50 244.30 327.30 247.94

2028 342.31 254.47 328.05 243.87 332.94 247.51

2029 348.11 253.89 333.62 243.32 338.59 246.95

2030 352.09 251.93 337.42 241.44 342.45 245.04

2031 355.07 249.20 340.28 238.82 345.35 242.38

2032 358.21 246.51 343.29 236.25 348.41 239.77

2033 360.14 243.05 345.15 232.93 350.29 236.40

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 12.7% 10.0% 11.3% 8.6% 12.2% 9.5%

2012-13 -9.6% -10.9% -9.6% -10.9% -9.6% -10.9%

2012-22 0.1% -1.7% 0.1% -1.7% 0.1% -1.7%

2012-33 0.9% -1.0% 0.9% -1.0% 0.9% -1.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 18

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

JET FUEL PRICES
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

111

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTALHistorical*

2000 10,283.5 7,573 17,856.6 4,415.2 7,785 12,199.9 14,698.7 15,357.8 30,056.5

2006 12,481.2 15,475 27,956.4 2,899.7 8,483 11,383.2 15,380.9 23,958.7 39,339.6

2007 12,940.5 17,503 30,443.2 2,278.6 7,187 9,465.7 15,219.1 24,689.7 39,908.82008 12,260.7 17,516 29,776.7 2,147.0 6,905 9,052.4 14,407.6 24,421.5 38,829.12009 10,275.3 13,834 24,109.7 1,623.2 5,266 6,889.1 11,898.6 19,100.2 30,998.82010 11,243.2 16,733 27,975.9 1,579.8 6,332 7,911.7 12,823.1 23,064.5 35,887.62011 10,601.2 18,980 29,580.9 1,445.7 6,250 7,696.2 12,046.9 25,230.2 37,277.02012E 10,631.1 18,181 28,812.2 1,422.3 6,149 7,571.5 12,053.4 24,330.3 36,383.7Forecast

2013 10,548.5 18,451 28,999.4 1,397.7 6,142 7,539.4 11,946.2 24,592.6 36,538.8

2014 10,723.8 19,896 30,619.3 1,407.2 6,517 7,924.1 12,131.0 26,412.5 38,543.52015 11,054.3 21,660 32,714.3 1,436.4 6,981 8,417.3 12,490.8 28,640.8 41,131.62016 11,241.7 23,327 34,568.7 1,450.0 7,396 8,846.3 12,691.7 30,723.3 43,415.02017 11,351.3 24,956 36,307.2 1,453.3 7,783 9,236.7 12,804.6 32,739.3 45,543.92018 11,404.7 26,565 37,969.7 1,449.3 8,149 9,597.9 12,854.0 34,713.6 47,567.62019 11,461.8 28,243 39,705.1 1,445.6 8,519 9,964.9 12,907.4 36,762.7 49,670.12020 11,543.6 30,019 41,562.9 1,445.0 8,903 10,348.0 12,988.6 38,922.3 51,910.9

2021 11,610.9 31,860 43,471.4 1,442.4 9,289 10,731.4 13,053.3 41,149.5 54,202.7

2022 11,701.8 33,797 45,498.7 1,442.6 9,685 11,127.7 13,144.4 43,482.0 56,626.4

2023 11,795.0 35,803 47,598.3 1,442.9 10,083 11,525.8 13,238.0 45,886.1 59,124.12024 11,875.9 37,868 49,744.3 1,441.6 10,479 11,920.2 13,317.6 48,347.0 61,664.52025 11,960.4 40,036 51,996.5 1,440.6 10,883 12,324.0 13,401.0 50,919.5 64,320.52026 12,021.5 42,271 54,292.4 1,436.7 11,287 12,723.2 13,458.1 53,557.6 67,015.72027 12,084.1 44,609 56,692.9 1,432.8 11,697 13,129.6 13,516.9 56,305.5 69,822.52028 12,145.6 47,039 59,185.0 1,428.7 12,110 13,538.8 13,574.3 59,149.5 72,723.82029 12,204.4 49,560 61,764.6 1,424.2 12,525 13,949.1 13,628.6 62,085.1 75,713.72030 12,294.7 52,231 64,525.6 1,423.2 12,955 14,378.1 13,718.0 65,185.7 78,903.72031 12,378.8 54,994 67,372.5 1,421.4 13,384 14,805.5 13,800.2 68,377.9 82,178.12032 12,450.6 57,843 70,293.8 1,418.1 13,810 15,228.4 13,868.7 71,653.4 85,522.22033 12,518.0 60,799 73,317.2 1,414.1 14,237 15,651.3 13,932.1 75,036.4 88,968.5Avg Annual Growth2000-12 0.3% 7.6% 4.1% -9.0% -1.9% -3.9% -1.6% 3.9% 1.6%

2012-13 -0.8% 1.5% 0.6% -1.7% -0.1% -0.4% -0.9% 1.1% 0.4%

2013-14 1.0% 6.4% 4.7% 0.1% 4.6% 3.9% 0.9% 6.0% 4.5%

2012-33 0.8% 5.9% 4.5% 0.0% 4.1% 3.5% 0.7% 5.5% 4.3%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new  reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers. 3Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

TABLE 19

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

112

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC OTHER INTERNATIONAL TOTALYEAR (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)Historical*2000 5,416.8 1,791.2 7,543.8 1,088.7 15,840.52006 6,084.1 2,004.9 9,564.2 6,555.6 24,208.92007 6,124.7 2,304.2 9,497.3 6,763.5 24,689.72008 6,415.4 2,336.3 9,050.0 6,619.8 24,421.52009 5,740.1 1,793.4 6,855.4 4,711.2 19,100.22010 6,865.3 1,990.6 8,348.4 5,860.3 23,064.52011 7,235.5 1,832.4 9,105.4 7,056.5 25,229.82012E 7,002.9 1,894.5 8,581.8 6,851.0 24,330.3Forecast2013 6,912.1 1,960.4 8,858.0 6,862.2 24,592.62014 7,259.2 2,134.9 9,514.5 7,503.8 26,412.52015 7,711.3 2,319.5 10,407.3 8,202.7 28,640.82016 8,170.3 2,490.7 11,175.0 8,887.3 30,723.32017 8,626.4 2,653.0 11,896.5 9,563.4 32,739.32018 9,075.2 2,810.3 12,591.9 10,236.3 34,713.62019 9,541.0 2,970.6 13,325.9 10,925.2 36,762.72020 10,030.5 3,136.6 14,122.9 11,632.3 38,922.32021 10,535.4 3,305.2 14,946.6 12,362.2 41,149.52022 11,064.5 3,481.6 15,828.7 13,107.1 43,482.02023 11,616.6 3,664.5 16,740.6 13,864.4 45,886.12024 12,186.6 3,852.5 17,671.8 14,636.1 48,347.02025 12,781.1 4,049.1 18,653.2 15,436.1 50,919.52026 13,392.6 4,250.6 19,652.2 16,262.1 53,557.52027 14,033.5 4,460.8 20,696.5 17,114.7 56,305.52028 14,702.0 4,679.9 21,778.7 17,988.9 59,149.52029 15,396.4 4,908.9 22,895.9 18,884.0 62,085.12030 16,133.1 5,154.4 24,094.8 19,803.4 65,185.72031 16,901.8 5,410.2 25,323.8 20,742.1 68,377.92032 17,696.3 5,675.6 26,579.4 21,702.1 71,653.42033 18,524.3 5,953.0 27,872.5 22,686.5 75,036.4Avg. Annual Growth2000-12 2.2% 0.5% 1.1% 16.6% 3.6%2012-13 -1.3% 3.5% 3.2% 0.2% 1.1%2012-22 4.7% 6.3% 6.3% 6.7% 6.0%2012-33 4.7% 5.6% 5.8% 5.9% 5.5%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.

TABLE 20

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

 INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

113

TABLE 21

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTAL

YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETS

Historical

2000 3,364 385 0 3,749 424 169 120 713 4,462 26 4,488

2006 3,302 26 0 3,328 463 19 49 531 3,859 39 3,898

2007 3,354 29 0 3,383 477 12 47 536 3,919 64 3,983

2008 3,170 10 1 3,181 470 9 44 523 3,704 91 3,795

2009 3,109 9 2 3,120 447 9 42 498 3,618 92 3,710

2010 3,127 10 1 3,138 471 9 43 523 3,661 90 3,751

2011 3,136 9 1 3,146 472 7 41 520 3,666 96 3,762

2012E 3,138 9 1 3,148 479 5 40 524 3,672 110 3,782

Forecast

2013 3,097 9 0 3,106 483 3 40 526 3,632 112 3,744

2014 3,107 9 0 3,116 494 1 40 535 3,651 114 3,765

2015 3,039 9 0 3,048 532 0 40 572 3,620 121 3,741

2016 3,042 9 0 3,051 539 0 40 579 3,630 129 3,759

2017 3,074 9 0 3,083 563 0 36 599 3,682 134 3,816

2018 3,104 9 0 3,113 599 0 26 625 3,738 136 3,874

2019 3,148 8 0 3,156 626 0 21 647 3,803 126 3,929

2020 3,185 7 0 3,192 663 0 16 679 3,871 126 3,997

2021 3,193 7 0 3,200 698 0 10 708 3,908 126 4,034

2022 3,230 2 0 3,232 728 0 6 734 3,966 126 4,092

2023 3,277 0 0 3,277 753 0 2 755 4,032 126 4,158

2024 3,316 0 0 3,316 788 0 0 788 4,104 126 4,230

2025 3,315 0 0 3,315 808 0 0 808 4,123 126 4,249

2026 3,352 0 0 3,352 835 0 0 835 4,187 126 4,313

2027 3,403 0 0 3,403 857 0 0 857 4,260 126 4,386

2028 3,464 0 0 3,464 884 0 0 884 4,348 126 4,474

2029 3,503 0 0 3,503 921 0 0 921 4,424 126 4,550

2030 3,550 0 0 3,550 954 0 0 954 4,504 126 4,630

2031 3,610 0 0 3,610 985 0 0 985 4,595 126 4,721

2032 3,664 0 0 3,664 1,018 0 0 1,018 4,682 126 4,808

2033 3,722 0 0 3,722 1,059 0 0 1,059 4,781 126 4,907

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -0.6% -26.9% N/A -1.4% 1.0% -25.4% -8.7% -2.5% -1.6% 12.8% -1.4%

2012-13 -1.3% 0.0% -100.0% -1.3% 0.8% -40.0% 0.0% 0.4% -1.1% 1.8% -1.0%

2012-22 0.3% -14.0% -100.0% 0.3% 4.3% -100.0% -17.3% 3.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.8%

2012-33 0.8% -99.9% -99.9% 0.8% 3.9% -99.9% -99.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.6% 1.2%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS 

PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

114

TABLE 22

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODYYEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL TOTALHistorical2000 166 332 176 674 164 158 68 390 1,0642006 162 220 78 460 264 208 80 552 1,0122007 162 162 75 399 276 213 86 575 9742008 161 143 68 372 276 215 97 588 9602009 160 104 33 297 253 209 82 544 8412010 153 104 31 288 265 200 97 562 850

2011 175 89 26 290 281 203 96 580 8702012E 186 67 12 265 292 188 95 575 840Forecast2013 192 56 10 258 288 184 97 569 8272014 196 45 7 248 289 177 98 564 8122015 200 34 5 239 301 167 100 568 8072016 213 21 4 238 322 158 101 581 8192017 225 18 2 245 334 155 103 592 8372018 236 17 0 253 350 147 103 600 8532019 250 15 0 265 363 136 105 604 8692020 265 12 0 277 386 125 107 618 8952021 274 10 0 284 404 126 108 638 9222022 276 9 0 285 426 128 109 663 9482023 281 7 0 288 444 128 112 684 9722024 287 4 0 291 457 129 113 699 9902025 298 2 0 300 470 129 115 714 1,0142026 302 0 0 302 483 130 116 729 1,0312027 309 0 0 309 493 132 120 745 1,0542028 311 0 0 311 517 132 122 771 1,0822029 317 0 0 317 530 132 125 787 1,1042030 319 0 0 319 553 133 127 813 1,132

2031 326 0 0 326 568 133 130 831 1,1572032 327 0 0 327 595 135 132 862 1,1892033 333 0 0 333 608 135 135 878 1,211Avg Annual Growth2000-12 1.0% -12.5% -20.1% -7.5% 4.9% 1.5% 2.8% 3.3% -2.0%2012-13 3.2% -16.4% -16.7% -2.6% -1.4% -2.1% 2.1% -1.0% -1.5%2012-22 4.0% -18.2% -100.0% 0.7% 3.8% -3.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2%2012-33 2.8% -99.9% -99.9% 1.1% 3.6% -1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8%

U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS

 CARGO JET AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

115

(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FISCAL U.S. AIR CARRIERS1 GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL

YEAR DOMESTIC INT'L. TOTAL AVIATION TOTAL CARRIER AVIATION TOTAL CONSUMED

Historical*

2000 15,030 5,484 20,513 972 21,485 2 333 335 21,350

2006 13,775 6,186 19,961 1,643 21,603 2 283 285 21,889

2007 13,882 6,309 20,191 1,486 21,676 2 274 276 21,952

2008 13,397 6,499 19,896 1,706 21,602 2 248 250 21,852

2009 11,896 6,033 17,929 1,447 19,376 2 227 229 19,606

2010 11,973 6,290 18,263 1,435 19,698 2 221 223 19,921

2011 12,088 6,548 18,636 1,491 20,127 2 216 218 20,344

2012E 11,918 6,582 18,500 1,542 20,042 2 212 214 20,256

Forecast22013 11,798 6,483 18,281 1,612 19,893 2 210 212 20,104

2014 11,958 6,650 18,608 1,682 20,290 2 207 209 20,499

2015 12,161 6,930 19,091 1,756 20,847 2 205 207 21,053

2016 12,349 7,188 19,536 1,830 21,366 2 202 204 21,570

2017 12,493 7,436 19,929 1,906 21,835 2 201 203 22,038

2018 12,596 7,676 20,272 1,982 22,254 2 201 203 22,456

2019 12,706 7,923 20,629 2,051 22,680 2 200 202 22,882

2020 12,845 8,183 21,028 2,120 23,148 2 199 201 23,349

2021 12,995 8,446 21,440 2,177 23,617 2 197 199 23,816

2022 13,152 8,718 21,870 2,237 24,107 2 197 199 24,306

2023 13,310 8,995 22,305 2,289 24,594 2 197 199 24,793

2024 13,438 9,273 22,711 2,347 25,058 2 198 200 25,258

2025 13,586 9,560 23,146 2,404 25,550 2 198 200 25,750

2026 13,722 9,848 23,570 2,461 26,032 2 198 200 26,231

2027 13,866 10,144 24,010 2,524 26,534 2 199 201 26,735

2028 14,017 10,446 24,463 2,591 27,054 2 200 202 27,256

2029 14,157 10,753 24,911 2,662 27,573 2 201 203 27,776

2030 14,310 11,077 25,387 2,733 28,120 2 202 204 28,324

2031 14,469 11,406 25,875 2,808 28,683 2 204 206 28,889

2032 14,621 11,739 26,360 2,884 29,244 2 206 208 29,453

2033 14,766 12,077 26,844 2,965 29,809 2 209 211 30,019

Avg Annual Growth

2000-12 -1.9% 1.5% -0.9% 3.9% -0.6% 0.0% -3.7% -3.6% -0.4%

2012-13 -1.0% -1.5% -1.2% 4.5% -0.7% 0.0% -1.3% -1.3% -0.8%

2012-22 1.0% 2.9% 1.7% 3.8% 1.9% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 1.8%

2012-33 1.0% 2.9% 1.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1.9%

* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.

1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.2Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in ASMs/Gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier

TABLE 23

TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION

U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

116

REVENUE PER

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT'L. SYSTEM CURRENT $ 2012$YEAR (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)

Historical*2000 38.4 41.8 38.5 286.5 260.0 285.5 30.28 40.532006 49.3 52.2 49.4 450.4 467.2 450.7 19.84 22.612007 49.9 54.0 50.0 451.5 518.1 452.9 19.95 22.212008 52.9 53.4 53.0 460.8 532.7 462.3 21.04 22.432009 55.2 52.8 55.1 456.9 512.3 457.8 17.04 18.222010 56.1 53.2 56.1 464.3 502.9 465.0 15.73 16.542011 56.4 52.7 56.3 467.0 531.4 468.0 15.10 15.472012E 56.1 59.8 56.2 467.2 626.4 470.3 13.21 13.21Forecast

2013 56.5 60.1 56.6 470.1 631.4 473.2 13.54 13.352014 56.9 60.4 57.0 472.2 636.4 475.4 13.68 13.262015 57.3 60.7 57.4 474.4 641.4 477.6 13.87 13.232016 57.8 61.0 57.9 478.2 646.4 481.4 14.13 13.242017 58.2 61.3 58.3 482.0 651.4 485.3 14.38 13.212018 58.6 61.6 58.7 485.9 656.4 489.2 14.59 13.152019 59.0 61.9 59.1 489.8 661.4 493.1 14.82 13.092020 59.5 62.2 59.6 494.7 666.4 498.0 15.04 13.032021 59.9 62.5 60.0 499.6 671.4 502.9 15.25 12.962022 60.4 62.8 60.4 504.6 676.4 507.9 15.47 12.892023 60.8 63.1 60.9 509.7 681.4 513.0 15.70 12.832024 61.2 63.4 61.3 514.8 686.4 518.1 15.91 12.762025 61.7 63.7 61.7 519.9 691.4 523.2 16.12 12.682026 62.1 64.0 62.2 526.1 696.4 529.4 16.32 12.602027 62.6 64.3 62.6 532.5 701.4 535.7 16.54 12.532028 63.1 64.6 63.1 538.8 706.4 542.1 16.75 12.452029 63.5 64.9 63.6 545.3 711.4 548.5 16.97 12.372030 64.0 65.2 64.0 551.9 716.4 555.0 17.18 12.292031 64.5 65.5 64.5 558.5 721.4 561.6 17.39 12.202032 64.9 65.8 64.9 565.2 726.4 568.3 17.61 12.122033 65.4 66.1 65.4 572.0 731.4 575.0 17.83 12.03

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 4.2% 7.6% 4.2% -6.7% -8.9%2012-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 2.5% 1.0%

2012-22 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.6% -0.2%

2012-33 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% -0.4%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.

TABLE 24

PASSENGER MILE**

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

117

(In Millions)

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Historical*2000 79.7 3.1 82.8 22,825 814 23,639

2006 152.2 3.5 155.7 68,532 1,634 70,166

2007 156.2 3.4 159.6 70,528 1,772 72,300

2008 159.1 3.5 162.6 73,305 1,867 75,172

2009 154.0 2.5 156.6 70,374 1,304 71,678

2010 161.6 2.7 164.3 75,053 1,347 76,400

2011 161.7 2.4 164.1 75,513 1,270 76,783

2012E 159.0 3.1 162.1 74,269 1,960 76,229

Forecast

2013 158.6 3.1 161.7 74,559 1,972 76,531

2014 163.6 3.2 166.8 77,228 2,049 79,277

2015 169.4 3.3 172.7 80,350 2,139 82,489

2016 174.6 3.4 178.0 83,487 2,222 85,709

2017 178.5 3.5 182.0 86,040 2,289 88,329

2018 181.8 3.6 185.4 88,347 2,350 90,697

2019 185.3 3.6 188.9 90,742 2,413 93,155

2020 189.1 3.7 192.9 93,558 2,482 96,039

2021 193.2 3.8 197.0 96,514 2,554 99,068

2022 197.4 3.9 201.3 99,632 2,629 102,261

2023 201.8 4.0 205.7 102,832 2,707 105,539

2024 205.7 4.0 209.7 105,879 2,780 108,658

2025 210.0 4.1 214.1 109,155 2,858 112,013

2026 214.0 4.2 218.2 112,610 2,935 115,545

2027 218.3 4.3 222.6 116,227 3,014 119,241

2028 222.7 4.4 227.1 119,994 3,097 123,091

2029 227.0 4.5 231.5 123,776 3,179 126,955

2030 231.5 4.6 236.1 127,767 3,266 131,033

2031 236.2 4.7 240.9 131,935 3,355 135,291

2032 240.9 4.7 245.6 136,152 3,445 139,597

2033 245.6 4.8 250.4 140,448 3,536 143,985

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 5.9% 0.0% 5.8% 10.3% 7.6% 10.2%2012-13 -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%

2012-22 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

2012-33 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8% 3.1%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 25

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

118

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD

YEAR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR

Historical*2000 38,332 22,825 59.5 1,338 814 60.8 39,670 23,639 59.6

2006 91,458 68,532 74.9 2,387 1,634 68.5 93,845 70,166 74.8

2007 93,452 70,528 75.5 2,550 1,772 69.5 96,002 72,300 75.3

2008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.6

2009 94,664 70,374 74.3 1,859 1,304 70.2 96,523 71,678 74.3

2010 98,489 75,053 76.2 1,857 1,347 72.5 100,346 76,400 76.1

2011 99,075 75,513 76.2 1,818 1,270 69.9 100,893 76,783 76.1

2012E 95,675 74,269 77.6 2,905 1,960 67.5 98,581 76,229 77.3

Forecast

2013 95,305 74,559 78.2 2,901 1,972 68.0 98,206 76,531 77.92014 98,663 77,228 78.3 2,993 2,049 68.5 101,655 79,277 78.0

2015 102,598 80,350 78.3 3,101 2,139 69.0 105,699 82,489 78.0

2016 106,553 83,487 78.4 3,198 2,222 69.5 109,751 85,709 78.1

2017 109,761 86,040 78.4 3,271 2,289 70.0 113,033 88,329 78.1

2018 112,657 88,347 78.4 3,334 2,350 70.5 115,991 90,697 78.2

2019 115,666 90,742 78.5 3,399 2,413 71.0 119,065 93,155 78.2

2020 119,210 93,558 78.5 3,472 2,482 71.5 122,682 96,039 78.3

2021 122,934 96,514 78.5 3,548 2,554 72.0 126,482 99,068 78.3

2022 126,863 99,632 78.5 3,628 2,629 72.5 130,491 102,261 78.4

2023 130,897 102,832 78.6 3,709 2,707 73.0 134,606 105,539 78.42024 134,735 105,879 78.6 3,783 2,780 73.5 138,518 108,658 78.42025 138,865 109,155 78.6 3,863 2,858 74.0 142,728 112,013 78.52026 143,222 112,610 78.6 3,954 2,935 74.2 147,176 115,545 78.52027 147,784 116,227 78.6 4,047 3,014 74.5 151,832 119,241 78.52028 152,537 119,994 78.7 4,145 3,097 74.7 156,682 123,091 78.62029 157,308 123,776 78.7 4,240 3,179 75.0 161,549 126,955 78.62030 162,345 127,767 78.7 4,350 3,266 75.1 166,694 131,033 78.62031 167,606 131,935 78.7 4,463 3,355 75.2 172,069 135,291 78.62032 172,927 136,152 78.7 4,577 3,445 75.3 177,504 139,597 78.62033 178,350 140,448 78.7 4,691 3,536 75.4 183,041 143,985 78.7Avg Annual Growth2000-12 7.9% 10.3% 2.2% 6.7% 7.6% 0.9% 7.9% 10.2% 2.2%

2012-13 -0.4% 0.4% 0.8% -0.2% 0.6% 0.7% -0.4% 0.4% 0.8%

2012-22 2.9% 3.0% 0.1% 2.2% 3.0% 0.7% 2.8% 3.0% 0.1%

2012-33 3.0% 3.1% 0.1% 2.3% 2.8% 0.5% 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

TABLE 26

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

119

TABLE 27

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT

AS OF LESS THAN 10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEETJANUARY 1 9 SEATS SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL

Historical*2000 470 343 262 474 74 548 155 496 651 1,704 570 2,274

2006 453 204 88 224 92 316 87 1,584 1,671 1,056 1,676 2,7322007 453 172 79 228 91 319 101 1,656 1,757 1,033 1,747 2,780

2008 451 107 68 180 25 205 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,755 2,682

2009 466 103 65 153 29 182 115 1,722 1,837 902 1,751 2,653

2010 440 92 82 144 28 172 99 1,728 1,827 857 1,756 2,613

2011 447 94 67 113 27 140 135 1,683 1,818 860 1,710 2,570

2012E 394 90 55 115 23 138 104 1,622 1,726 758 1,645 2,403

Forecast

2013 386 88 54 106 15 121 108 1,582 1,690 743 1,597 2,340

2014 378 85 53 103 10 113 112 1,572 1,684 732 1,582 2,314

2015 371 82 52 99 10 109 117 1,605 1,722 721 1,615 2,336

2016 363 80 51 96 0 96 120 1,625 1,745 711 1,625 2,336

2017 356 77 50 92 0 92 125 1,619 1,744 700 1,619 2,319

2018 346 74 49 89 0 89 129 1,615 1,744 687 1,615 2,302

2019 333 71 48 85 0 85 133 1,618 1,751 670 1,618 2,288

2020 322 68 47 82 0 82 137 1,631 1,768 656 1,631 2,287

2021 308 65 46 78 0 78 141 1,633 1,774 638 1,633 2,271

2022 289 61 43 73 0 73 147 1,639 1,786 613 1,639 2,252

2023 271 57 41 68 0 68 153 1,668 1,821 590 1,668 2,258

2024 253 53 38 64 0 64 158 1,683 1,841 566 1,683 2,249

2025 233 49 35 59 0 59 164 1,698 1,862 540 1,698 2,238

2026 214 45 32 54 0 54 170 1,732 1,902 515 1,732 2,247

2027 194 41 29 49 0 49 177 1,760 1,937 490 1,760 2,250

2028 178 37 27 45 0 45 183 1,808 1,991 470 1,808 2,278

2029 160 34 24 40 0 40 189 1,856 2,045 447 1,856 2,303

2030 142 30 21 36 0 36 195 1,911 2,106 424 1,911 2,335

2031 124 26 19 31 0 31 201 1,967 2,168 401 1,967 2,368

2032 106 22 16 27 0 27 207 2,024 2,231 378 2,024 2,402

2033 88 19 13 22 0 22 212 2,082 2,294 354 2,082 2,436

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -1.5% -10.6% -12.2% -11.1% -9.3% -10.9% -3.3% 10.4% 8.5% -6.5% 9.2% 0.5%

2012-13 -2.0% -2.2% -1.0% -7.8% -34.8% -12.3% 3.8% -2.5% -2.1% -2.0% -2.9% -2.6%

2012-22 -3.1% -3.8% -2.4% -4.4% -100.0% -6.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.3% -2.1% 0.0% -0.6%

2012-33 -6.9% -7.1% -6.6% -7.6% -100.0% -8.4% 3.4% 1.2% 1.4% -3.6% 1.1% 0.1%

*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association through 2004.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

120

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

AS OF SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL 

DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL AIRCRAFT OTHER FLEET PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*

2000 149,422 21,091 170,513 5,762 7,001 12,763 2,680 4,470 7,150 20,407 NA 6,700 217,533 173,193 17,233

2006 145,036 18,708 163,744 8,063 10,379 18,442 3,264 5,895 9,159 23,047 1,273 6,277 221,942 167,008 24,337

2007 147,569 19,337 166,906 9,514 10,385 19,899 2,769 6,798 9,567 23,228 6,066 5,940 231,606 169,675 26,697

2008 145,497 17,515 163,012 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,664 166,510 26,327

2009 140,649 16,474 157,123 9,055 11,268 20,323 3,499 6,485 9,984 24,419 6,547 5,480 223,876 160,622 26,808

2010 139,519 15,900 155,419 9,369 11,484 20,853 3,588 6,514 10,102 24,784 6,528 5,684 223,370 159,007 27,367

2011E 136,885 15,700 152,585 9,520 11,650 21,170 3,685 6,725 10,410 24,275 6,645 5,685 220,770 156,270 27,895

2012E 135,935 15,600 151,535 9,670 11,890 21,560 3,765 6,900 10,665 24,410 6,825 5,675 220,670 155,300 28,460

Forecast2013 135,005 15,530 150,535 9,830 12,230 22,060 3,865 7,130 10,995 24,750 7,075 5,670 221,085 154,400 29,190

2014 134,130 15,485 149,615 9,990 12,640 22,630 3,970 7,375 11,345 25,075 7,260 5,660 221,585 153,585 30,005

2015 133,315 15,425 148,740 10,150 13,075 23,225 4,075 7,630 11,705 25,415 7,425 5,655 222,165 152,815 30,855

2016 132,545 15,350 147,895 10,315 13,525 23,840 4,185 7,890 12,075 25,665 7,585 5,645 222,705 152,080 31,730

2017 131,805 15,265 147,070 10,475 13,980 24,455 4,295 8,155 12,450 25,960 7,740 5,640 223,315 151,365 32,610

2018 131,095 15,165 146,260 10,650 14,420 25,070 4,400 8,415 12,815 26,250 7,890 5,635 223,920 150,660 33,485

2019 130,410 15,075 145,485 10,830 14,875 25,705 4,500 8,670 13,170 26,585 8,055 5,630 224,630 149,985 34,375

2020 129,785 14,960 144,745 11,015 15,350 26,365 4,595 8,925 13,520 26,880 8,210 5,620 225,340 149,340 35,290

2021 129,200 14,850 144,050 11,200 15,850 27,050 4,690 9,180 13,870 27,215 8,360 5,610 226,155 148,740 36,230

2022 128,670 14,735 143,405 11,395 16,355 27,750 4,785 9,435 14,220 27,460 8,525 5,610 226,970 148,190 37,185

2023 128,200 14,605 142,805 11,595 16,895 28,490 4,885 9,705 14,590 27,745 8,680 5,605 227,915 147,690 38,195

2024 127,790 14,495 142,285 11,810 17,490 29,300 4,990 9,980 14,970 28,085 8,830 5,590 229,060 147,275 39,280

2025 127,480 14,395 141,875 12,015 18,120 30,135 5,095 10,260 15,355 28,415 8,995 5,585 230,360 146,970 40,395

2026 127,265 14,285 141,550 12,235 18,800 31,035 5,200 10,540 15,740 28,695 9,150 5,585 231,755 146,750 41,575

2027 127,150 14,190 141,340 12,450 19,520 31,970 5,305 10,825 16,130 29,030 9,305 5,580 233,355 146,645 42,795

2028 127,115 14,085 141,200 12,665 20,285 32,950 5,415 11,110 16,525 29,370 9,460 5,575 235,080 146,615 44,060

2029 127,210 13,985 141,195 12,875 21,080 33,955 5,525 11,400 16,925 29,695 9,620 5,560 236,950 146,720 45,355

2030 127,440 13,890 141,330 13,095 21,915 35,010 5,635 11,695 17,330 29,985 9,775 5,555 238,985 146,965 46,705

2031 127,805 13,800 141,605 13,305 22,775 36,080 5,745 11,990 17,735 30,315 9,930 5,555 241,220 147,350 48,070

2032 128,330 13,720 142,050 13,525 23,670 37,195 5,855 12,285 18,140 30,645 10,090 5,550 243,670 147,905 49,480

2033 129,040 13,650 142,690 13,740 24,620 38,360 5,970 12,585 18,555 30,980 10,245 5,545 246,375 148,660 50,945

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -0.8% -2.5% -1.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 2.9% 3.7% 3.4% 1.5% NA -1.4% 0.1% -0.9% 4.3%

2012-13 -0.7% -0.4% -0.7% 1.7% 2.9% 2.3% 2.7% 3.3% 3.1% 1.4% 3.7% -0.1% 0.2% -0.6% 2.6%2012-22 -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% 1.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 3.2% 2.9% 1.2% 2.2% -0.1% 0.3% -0.5% 2.7%2012-33 -0.2% -0.6% -0.3% 1.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 1.1% 2.0% -0.1% 0.5% -0.2% 2.8%

* Source: 2000-2010, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 28

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

121

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON GENERAL

CALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- SPORT AVIATION TOTAL TOTAL 

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE TOTAL PROP JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL AIRCRAFT OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINES

Historical*2000 18,089 3,400 21,489 1,986 2,755 4,741 530 1,661 2,191 1,307 NA 374 30,102 22,019 6,402

2006 13,976 2,550 16,525 2,162 4,077 6,240 918 2,528 3,446 1,218 66 211 27,705 17,443 8,767

2007 13,571 2,686 16,257 2,661 3,938 6,600 704 2,541 3,245 1,275 260 215 27,852 16,962 9,141

2008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,527

2009 11,730 1,903 13,634 2,215 3,161 5,376 755 2,248 3,003 1,286 286 178 23,763 14,389 7,624

2010 12,161 1,818 13,979 2,325 3,375 5,700 794 2,611 3,405 1,226 311 181 24,802 14,773 8,311

2011 11,844 1,782 13,626 2,324 3,577 5,901 785 2,545 3,331 1,213 317 181 24,570 14,411 8,447

2012E 11,642 1,755 13,396 2,357 3,756 6,113 808 2,535 3,344 1,232 331 182 24,599 14,205 8,649

Forecast2013 11,269 1,738 13,007 2,424 3,970 6,394 832 2,599 3,430 1,312 346 183 24,673 13,839 8,993

2014 10,927 1,725 12,652 2,506 4,179 6,685 857 2,660 3,516 1,396 363 183 24,795 13,508 9,345

2015 10,656 1,704 12,360 2,589 4,400 6,989 881 2,723 3,604 1,457 378 184 24,973 13,241 9,712

2016 10,414 1,675 12,089 2,674 4,631 7,305 907 2,805 3,712 1,515 394 185 25,200 12,996 10,110

2017 10,260 1,653 11,913 2,759 4,859 7,618 934 2,894 3,827 1,579 410 186 25,534 12,847 10,512

2018 10,142 1,638 11,780 2,835 5,093 7,928 959 2,981 3,940 1,612 427 186 25,874 12,739 10,909

2019 10,030 1,624 11,654 2,901 5,308 8,209 983 3,066 4,048 1,649 444 187 26,193 12,637 11,275

2020 9,938 1,615 11,553 2,959 5,531 8,489 1,005 3,151 4,156 1,684 462 188 26,532 12,558 11,640

2021 9,853 1,605 11,458 3,011 5,756 8,768 1,028 3,235 4,263 1,714 475 188 26,866 12,486 12,002

2022 9,816 1,597 11,413 3,065 5,985 9,050 1,051 3,325 4,376 1,738 489 189 27,255 12,464 12,375

2023 9,782 1,582 11,364 3,119 6,191 9,310 1,075 3,417 4,492 1,765 503 190 27,623 12,439 12,726

2024 9,806 1,568 11,374 3,173 6,419 9,592 1,101 3,510 4,610 1,795 517 191 28,079 12,475 13,101

2025 9,847 1,559 11,406 3,226 6,648 9,873 1,126 3,606 4,732 1,825 532 191 28,560 12,532 13,480

2026 9,873 1,557 11,430 3,279 6,893 10,172 1,151 3,704 4,855 1,853 546 192 29,048 12,581 13,875

2027 9,951 1,561 11,512 3,333 7,156 10,489 1,177 3,803 4,980 1,884 561 193 29,619 12,689 14,292

2028 10,016 1,559 11,575 3,388 7,434 10,822 1,203 3,905 5,108 1,915 576 194 30,190 12,778 14,727

2029 10,089 1,553 11,642 3,441 7,726 11,168 1,230 4,009 5,238 1,946 592 194 30,780 12,872 15,176

2030 10,188 1,553 11,741 3,495 8,029 11,524 1,256 4,117 5,373 1,975 607 195 31,415 12,996 15,641

2031 10,301 1,558 11,859 3,548 8,342 11,889 1,282 4,230 5,512 2,006 623 196 32,086 13,142 16,119

2032 10,441 1,567 12,009 3,603 8,669 12,271 1,309 4,345 5,654 2,039 639 197 32,808 13,317 16,616

2033 10,597 1,578 12,174 3,657 9,012 12,669 1,337 4,471 5,808 2,071 656 197 33,576 13,511 17,141

Avg Annual Growth

2000-12 -3.6% -5.4% -3.9% 1.4% 2.6% 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% -0.5% NA -5.8% -1.7% -3.6% 2.5%

2012-13 -3.2% -1.0% -2.9% 2.8% 5.7% 4.6% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 6.5% 4.7% 0.4% 0.3% -2.6% 4.0%

2012-22 -1.7% -0.9% -1.6% 2.7% 4.8% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.5% 4.0% 0.4% 1.0% -1.3% 3.6%

2012-33 -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% 2.1% 4.3% 3.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 0.4% 1.5% -0.2% 3.3%

* Source: 2000-2010, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year. 

TURBINE

TABLE 29

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN

(In Thousands)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

122

TABLE 30

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE CRAFT GLIDER TOTAL LESS RATED 

DEC. 31 STUDENTS TIONAL PILOT PRIVATE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT ONLY ONLY PILOTS AT PILOTS PILOTS1

Historical*

2000 93,064 340 N/A 251,561 121,858 141,596 7,775 9,387 625,581 483,985 311,944

2006 84,866 239 939 219,233 117,610 141,935 10,690 21,597 597,109 455,174 309,3332007 84,339 239 2,031 211,096 115,127 143,953 12,290 21,274 590,349 446,396 309,865

2008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,247

2009 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,495

2010 119,119 2 212 3,682 202,020 123,705 142,198 15,377 21,275 627,588 485,390 318,001

2011 118,657 227 4,066 194,441 120,865 142,511 15,220 21,141 617,128 474,617 314,122

2012 119,946 218 4,493 188,001 116,400 145,590 15,126 20,802 610,576 464,986 311,952

Forecast2013 120,200 220 5,100 189,500 111,200 146,100 15,190 20,805 608,315 462,215 311,100

2014 119,850 220 5,650 188,250 115,950 143,800 15,385 20,865 609,970 466,170 311,000

2015 119,200 220 5,950 187,400 116,400 144,700 15,690 20,900 610,460 465,760 311,300

2016 118,450 220 6,250 186,950 117,600 146,400 16,090 20,920 612,880 466,480 311,850

2017 117,750 220 6,600 186,700 118,400 147,000 16,565 20,960 614,195 467,195 312,550

2018 117,100 220 6,950 186,400 118,850 147,000 17,100 20,995 614,615 467,615 313,300

2019 116,550 220 7,300 186,400 119,250 147,200 17,700 21,035 615,655 468,455 314,100

2020 116,050 220 7,700 186,350 119,600 147,900 18,350 21,050 617,220 469,320 314,9502021 115,600 215 8,100 186,450 120,000 148,700 18,950 21,090 619,105 470,405 315,800

2022 115,300 215 8,500 186,700 120,500 149,300 19,600 21,125 621,240 471,940 316,7002023 115,050 215 8,900 187,000 121,050 149,800 20,250 21,165 623,430 473,630 317,650

2024 114,950 215 9,350 187,600 121,700 150,500 20,900 21,180 626,395 475,895 318,700

2025 114,950 215 9,800 188,400 122,400 151,300 21,600 21,220 629,885 478,585 319,750

2026 115,000 210 10,250 188,950 123,250 152,100 22,300 21,255 633,315 481,215 320,950

2027 115,150 210 10,750 189,750 124,200 152,900 23,000 21,290 637,250 484,350 322,150

2028 115,350 210 11,250 190,550 125,300 153,800 23,750 21,330 641,540 487,740 323,500

2029 115,600 210 11,800 191,400 126,400 154,700 24,500 21,345 645,955 491,255 324,900

2030 115,950 210 12,350 192,400 127,600 155,600 25,250 21,380 650,740 495,140 326,350

2031 116,350 210 12,950 193,400 128,900 156,600 26,000 21,420 655,830 499,230 327,850

2032 116,850 210 13,550 194,450 130,300 157,500 26,800 21,455 661,115 503,615 329,450

2033 117,400 210 14,200 195,600 131,800 158,500 27,600 21,490 666,800 508,300 331,100

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 2.1% -3.6% N/A -2.4% -0.4% 0.2% 5.7% 6.9% -0.2% -0.3% 0.0%

2012-13 0.2% 0.9% 13.5% 0.8% -4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% -0.6% -0.3%

2012-22 -0.4% -0.1% 6.6% -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

2012-33 -0.1% -0.2% 5.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. 

 This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of 2009.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

123

TABLE 31

(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING

 PISTON EXPERICALENDAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO- ROTORCRAFT MENTAL/ JET

YEAR ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER SPORT AVGAS FUEL TOTAL

Historical*

2000 200.8 108.4 176.3 736.7 8.4 59.0 15.2 NA 332.8 972.0 1,304.8

2006 164.9 79.9 190.1 1,303.9 16.7 148.6 21.6 0.3 283.4 1,642.6 1,926.0

2007 157.6 83.0 205.2 1,148.0 9.3 132.4 22.6 1.2 273.6 1,485.6 1,759.2

2008 143.0 69.5 230.4 1,313.2 10.7 162.1 23.3 1.5 248.1 1,705.7 1,953.8

2009 132.3 57.1 208.7 1,104.6 10.7 133.6 25.8 1.4 227.4 1,447.0 1,674.4

2010 133.1 53.9 187.1 1,122.9 10.7 124.8 21.6 1.5 220.7 1,434.8 1,655.6

2011 129.3 52.9 188.0 1,181.8 10.5 120.8 21.3 1.5 215.5 1,490.7 1,706.2

2012E 126.6 51.8 190.7 1,232.2 10.7 119.5 21.7 1.5 212.3 1,542.4 1,754.7

Forecast

2013 122.6 51.3 194.1 1,295.9 11.0 121.9 23.1 1.6 209.5 1,612.0 1,821.5

2014 118.8 51.2 200.7 1,357.3 11.2 124.1 24.4 1.7 207.4 1,682.2 1,889.5

2015 115.3 50.5 207.4 1,421.8 11.5 126.4 25.5 1.8 204.7 1,755.7 1,960.3

2016 112.7 49.4 212.1 1,489.0 11.9 128.9 26.4 1.8 202.2 1,830.0 2,032.2

2017 111.0 48.8 218.8 1,554.7 12.2 132.4 27.5 1.9 201.5 1,905.8 2,107.3

2018 109.8 48.3 224.8 1,621.2 12.6 135.7 28.1 2.0 200.7 1,981.7 2,182.4

2019 108.5 47.9 230.1 1,681.3 12.9 139.5 28.7 2.1 200.1 2,050.8 2,251.0

2020 107.0 47.7 233.4 1,743.0 13.2 143.4 29.3 2.1 199.3 2,119.8 2,319.2

2021 105.0 46.9 235.2 1,796.0 13.4 145.7 29.6 2.2 197.1 2,177.0 2,374.0

2022 104.6 46.7 239.4 1,848.7 13.7 149.1 30.0 2.2 197.2 2,237.1 2,434.3

2023 104.3 46.2 243.6 1,893.1 14.0 152.4 30.4 2.3 197.3 2,289.1 2,486.4

2024 104.5 45.8 247.8 1,943.3 14.3 155.8 31.0 2.4 198.0 2,346.8 2,544.9

2025 103.9 45.6 251.9 1,992.4 14.7 160.0 31.5 2.4 198.1 2,404.4 2,602.5

2026 103.2 45.5 253.6 2,045.2 14.9 162.7 31.6 2.5 197.7 2,461.5 2,659.1

2027 103.4 45.6 255.2 2,102.1 15.3 166.3 32.2 2.5 199.0 2,523.5 2,722.5

2028 103.6 45.5 259.4 2,162.0 15.6 169.8 32.7 2.6 200.1 2,591.3 2,791.3

2029 103.8 45.4 263.5 2,224.4 15.9 174.4 33.2 2.7 201.1 2,662.2 2,863.3

2030 104.3 45.4 267.5 2,288.6 16.3 177.3 33.7 2.8 202.5 2,733.4 2,935.9

2031 105.0 45.5 271.6 2,353.8 16.6 182.1 34.3 2.8 204.2 2,807.6 3,011.8

2032 105.9 45.8 275.8 2,421.6 17.0 187.1 34.8 2.9 206.3 2,884.5 3,090.8

2033 106.9 46.1 280.0 2,492.4 17.3 192.6 35.4 3.0 208.7 2,964.9 3,173.6

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -3.8% -6.0% 0.7% 4.4% 2.0% 6.1% 3.0% NA -3.7% 3.9% 2.5%

2012-13 -3.2% -1.0% 1.8% 5.2% 2.4% 2.0% 6.5% 4.7% -1.3% 4.5% 3.8%

2012-22 -1.9% -1.0% 2.3% 4.1% 2.5% 2.2% 3.3% 3.8% -0.7% 3.8% 3.3%

2012-33 -0.8% -0.6% 1.8% 3.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.2% -0.1% 3.2% 2.9%

*Source: FAA APO Estimates.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED TURBINE

GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013

-2033

124

TABLE 32

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERSYEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT

Historical*

2000 15,158.7 10,760.5 22,844.1 17,034.4 39,878.5 1,439.8 1,448.2 2,888.0 68,685.7 266 1922006 13,256.3 11,967.6 18,707.1 14,365.4 33,072.5 1,358.4 1,417.3 2,775.7 61,072.1 263 2312007 13,611.2 11,667.3 18,575.2 14,556.8 33,132.0 1,313.9 1,405.7 2,719.5 61,130.0 264 2352008 13,780.1 11,032.1 17,492.7 14,081.2 31,573.8 1,285.0 1,245.6 2,530.6 58,916.6 264 2392009 12,836.4 9,520.8 15,571.1 12,448.0 28,019.0 1,305.2 1,280.4 2,585.5 52,961.7 264 244

2010 12,657.6 9,410.4 14,863.9 11,716.3 26,580.1 1,309.0 1,297.9 2,606.9 51,255.0 264 244

2011 12,866.0 9,278.5 14,527.9 11,437.0 25,964.9 1,319.0 1,311.3 2,630.3 50,739.8 264 248

2012E 12,872.9 8,994.4 14,521.7 11,608.3 26,130.0 1,308.9 1,269.9 2,578.8 50,576.0 264 250

Forecast

2013 12,954.5 8,822.6 14,387.4 11,698.1 26,085.6 1,309.7 1,270.1 2,579.8 50,442.5 264 250

2014 13,403.4 8,779.9 14,448.3 11,749.5 26,197.8 1,309.7 1,270.1 2,579.8 50,960.9 264 250

2015 13,876.6 8,717.5 14,509.8 11,801.3 26,311.1 1,309.7 1,270.1 2,579.8 51,485.0 264 250

2016 14,328.0 8,624.2 14,571.9 11,853.6 26,425.4 1,309.6 1,270.1 2,579.8 51,957.4 264 250

2017 14,778.8 8,553.0 14,634.4 11,906.4 26,540.8 1,309.6 1,270.1 2,579.8 52,452.4 264 250

2018 15,127.9 8,539.3 14,697.6 11,959.7 26,657.3 1,309.6 1,270.1 2,579.7 52,904.3 264 250

2019 15,485.7 8,526.9 14,761.4 12,013.5 26,774.9 1,309.6 1,270.1 2,579.7 53,367.2 264 250

2020 15,852.4 8,515.8 14,825.7 12,067.9 26,893.6 1,309.6 1,270.1 2,579.7 53,841.5 264 250

2021 16,228.8 8,505.4 14,890.7 12,122.7 27,013.4 1,309.5 1,270.1 2,579.7 54,327.3 264 250

2022 16,614.6 8,496.2 14,956.2 12,178.2 27,134.4 1,309.5 1,270.1 2,579.7 54,824.9 264 250

2023 17,010.2 8,488.0 15,022.4 12,234.1 27,256.5 1,309.5 1,270.1 2,579.6 55,334.3 264 250

2024 17,415.6 8,480.5 15,089.2 12,290.6 27,379.8 1,309.5 1,270.1 2,579.6 55,855.5 264 250

2025 17,830.6 8,473.0 15,156.6 12,347.7 27,504.2 1,309.5 1,270.1 2,579.6 56,387.4 264 250

2026 18,241.1 8,480.2 15,224.6 12,405.3 27,629.9 1,309.4 1,270.1 2,579.6 56,930.8 264 250

2027 18,662.0 8,488.6 15,293.3 12,463.4 27,756.8 1,309.4 1,270.1 2,579.6 57,486.9 264 250

2028 19,093.4 8,498.2 15,362.7 12,522.2 27,884.9 1,309.4 1,270.1 2,579.5 58,055.9 264 250

2029 19,535.6 8,508.8 15,432.7 12,581.5 28,014.2 1,309.4 1,270.1 2,579.5 58,638.1 264 250

2030 19,988.9 8,520.4 15,503.4 12,641.5 28,144.9 1,309.4 1,270.1 2,579.5 59,233.6 264 250

2031 20,450.9 8,535.7 15,574.8 12,702.0 28,276.8 1,309.3 1,270.1 2,579.5 59,842.9 264 250

2032 20,924.7 8,551.9 15,646.8 12,763.1 28,410.0 1,309.3 1,270.1 2,579.5 60,466.0 264 250

2033 21,410.5 8,568.9 15,719.6 12,824.9 28,544.5 1,309.3 1,270.1 2,579.5 61,103.4 264 250

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -1.4% -1.5% -3.7% -3.1% -3.5% -0.8% -1.1% -0.9% -2.5%

2012-13 0.6% -1.9% -0.9% 0.8% -0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3%2012-22 2.6% -0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

2012-33 2.5% -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS

WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

125

TABLE 33

(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*2000 16,395.0 11,197.7 20,799.2 3,466.9 51,858.8

2006 13,963.3 12,035.7 17,005.3 2,669.9 45,674.2

2007 14,366.0 11,675.8 16,747.4 2,498.7 45,288.0

2008 14,443.0 11,048.3 15,763.0 2,399.5 43,653.8

2009 13,302.3 9,622.8 14,151.1 2,398.8 39,474.9

2010 13,174.3 9,511.3 13,863.6 2,437.5 38,986.7

2011 13,068.0 9,349.4 13,503.1 2,374.6 38,295.2

2012E 13,045.1 8,977.0 13,423.6 2,332.2 37,778.0

Forecast2013 13,114.9 8,755.7 13,125.8 2,332.2 37,328.6

2014 13,564.5 8,702.1 13,210.9 2,332.1 37,809.6

2015 14,038.9 8,628.6 13,297.5 2,332.1 38,297.0

2016 14,489.7 8,522.6 13,379.2 2,332.0 38,723.6

2017 14,941.2 8,439.4 13,463.3 2,332.0 39,175.9

2018 15,292.3 8,414.9 13,544.7 2,331.9 39,583.9

2019 15,652.3 8,391.9 13,627.4 2,331.9 40,003.4

2020 16,021.3 8,370.0 13,711.4 2,331.8 40,434.6

2021 16,400.1 8,349.0 13,796.9 2,331.8 40,877.8

2022 16,788.5 8,329.1 13,883.7 2,331.7 41,333.02023 17,186.7 8,310.2 13,971.9 2,331.7 41,800.5

2024 17,594.8 8,291.9 14,061.6 2,331.6 42,279.9

2025 18,012.5 8,273.4 14,152.6 2,331.6 42,770.0

2026 18,425.8 8,272.0 14,245.1 2,331.5 43,274.5

2027 18,849.4 8,271.9 14,339.1 2,331.5 43,791.9

2028 19,283.7 8,272.9 14,434.7 2,331.4 44,322.7

2029 19,728.9 8,275.0 14,531.8 2,331.4 44,867.0

2030 20,185.3 8,278.2 14,630.5 2,331.3 45,425.3

2031 20,650.5 8,285.2 14,730.9 2,331.3 45,997.8

2032 21,127.5 8,293.1 14,832.9 2,331.3 46,584.7

2033 21,616.7 8,301.9 14,936.5 2,331.2 47,186.3

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -1.9% -1.8% -3.6% -3.2% -2.6%

2012-13 0.5% -2.5% -2.2% 0.0% -1.2%2012-22 2.6% -0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9%

2012-33 2.4% -0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013-2033

126

TABLE 34

(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION MILITARY TOTAL

Historical*2000 24,987.0 8,100.9 8,744.3 4,192.5 46,024.8

2006 24,394.5 9,436.7 8,197.0 4,149.7 46,177.8

2007 25,006.2 9,652.9 8,294.3 3,803.3 46,756.72008 23,895.3 10,179.0 7,670.7 3,649.2 45,394.1

2009 22,406.8 8,561.8 6,331.8 2,993.0 40,293.5

2010 22,341.5 8,623.8 6,550.3 2,982.2 40,497.8

2011 23,431.7 9,010.4 6,557.3 2,227.6 41,227.12012E 23,650.9 8,932.1 6,472.1 1,859.9 40,915.1

Forecast

2013 23,889.3 8,931.7 6,390.6 1,859.9 41,071.62014 24,513.8 9,076.3 6,415.5 1,859.9 41,865.52015 25,111.3 9,199.4 6,436.5 1,859.9 42,607.22016 25,677.6 9,336.2 6,464.7 1,859.9 43,338.52017 26,267.9 9,481.7 6,503.5 1,859.9 44,113.02018 26,837.7 9,615.7 6,538.0 1,859.9 44,851.42019 27,416.4 9,749.9 6,576.8 1,859.9 45,603.02020 28,005.4 9,891.4 6,619.6 1,859.9 46,376.42021 28,598.1 10,042.3 6,665.9 1,859.9 47,166.2

2022 29,203.9 10,195.6 6,715.5 1,859.9 47,975.0

2023 29,822.1 10,351.2 6,768.3 1,859.9 48,801.5

2024 30,452.9 10,508.9 6,824.1 1,859.9 49,645.9

2025 31,092.0 10,671.1 6,882.6 1,859.9 50,505.7

2026 31,745.9 10,836.6 6,944.5 1,859.9 51,386.9

2027 32,413.8 11,004.8 7,009.9 1,859.9 52,288.4

2028 33,090.7 11,181.3 7,078.6 1,859.9 53,210.6

2029 33,782.4 11,360.8 7,151.0 1,859.9 54,154.1

2030 34,489.3 11,543.6 7,227.0 1,859.9 55,119.8

2031 35,212.2 11,729.6 7,306.8 1,859.9 56,108.6

2032 35,951.3 11,919.0 7,390.6 1,859.9 57,120.9

2033 36,707.4 12,111.9 7,478.4 1,859.9 58,157.7

Avg Annual Growth2000-12 -0.5% 0.8% -2.5% -6.5% -1.0%2012-13 1.0% 0.0% -1.3% 0.0% 0.4%2012-22 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 1.6%2012-33 2.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 1.7%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS