# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 METHOD

...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 RESULTS

...................................................................................................................... 14-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast

................................................................... 14-4

Table 14.4.2 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

........................ 14-6

Table 14.4.3 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

........................ 14-7

Table 14.4.4 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

........................ 14-8

Table 14.4.5 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

........................ 14-9

Table 14.4.6 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1a Forecast

.................... 14-10

Table 14.4.7 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2a Forecast

.................... 14-11

Table 14.4.8 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3a Forecast

.................... 14-12

Table 14.4.9 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4a Forecast

.................... 14-13

Table 14.4.10 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1b Forecast

................... 14-14

Table 14.4.11 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2b Forecast

................... 14-15

Table 14.4.12 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b Forecast

................... 14-16

Table 14.4.13 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4b Forecast

................... 14-17

Table 14.4.14 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

........................ 14-18

Table 14.4.15 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

........................ 14-19

Table 14.4.16 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

........................ 14-20

Table 14.4.17 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

........................ 14-21

Table 14.4.18 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

........................ 14-22

Table 14.4.19 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-23

Table 14.4.20 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b High Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-24

Table 14.4.21 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 High Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-25

Table 14.4.22 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-26

Table 14.4.23 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b Low Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-27

Table 14.4.24 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Low Economic

Growth Case Forecast

...................................................................................... 14-28

14-i

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential cooking products and microwave ovens and

commercial clothes washer standard levels on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant

of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System

(NEMS). a 

# NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S.

energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the

U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2008 (AEO2008) forecasts energy supply

and demand through 2030. 1 

# DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as NEMS-BT, b



# to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast.

DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AEO2008

Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic

set of assumptions as the AEO2008 . For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy

conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in

the AEO2008 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by

fuel type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in residential and

commercial sector electricity and natural gas consumption.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition,

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of

the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to

estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency

standards than considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2008 and treats cooking

product, microwave oven, and clothes washer efficiency standards as variations in policy. The

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003.

b 

# DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE = s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT

was previously called NEMS-BRS.

# effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2008 Reference Case and

each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method

is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix 14A.

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2008 . The

AEO2008 Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity,

resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth,

relative to the reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The

High Growth Case reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent

per year compared with 3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in

the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of

electricity demand. DOE ran the High and Low Economic Growth Cases only for the proposed

standard.

14.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed

description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the

NEMS-BT Residential and Commercial Demand Modules. Energy use reductions are applied to

the residential cooking end use for cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial

water heating end use for clothes washers. The savings are then divided among U.S. Census

divisions. All fuels are considered simultaneously, however the residential and commercial

TSLs are run separately using NEMS-BT.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential

cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial clothes washers energy-efficiency

standards analysis extend to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of

NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for

extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be

contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs

14-2

# could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of

various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work,

and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond

2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some

instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case

in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the

current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced

with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results

wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

14.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs presented in five-year increments to

year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for just the proposed TSL. Beyond year 2030,

an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030

results.

The results from the AEO2008 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1.

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each energy efficiency standard product. A total

of four TSLs are modeled for residential cooking products, eight for residential microwave

ovens, and six TSLs for commercial clothes washers. The reference case results for each TSL

are presented in Tables 14.4.2 through 14.4.18, respectively. The results from proposed

residential cooking products are presented in Tables 14.2.2 through 14.2.5, the results from

proposed residential microwave ovens are presented in Tables 14.2.6 through 14.2.13, and the

results from proposed commercial clothes washers are presented in Tables 14.2.14 through

14.2.18. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3 for

total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

Residential cooking products result in decreases to electricity and natural gas

consumption for all TSLs compared to the AEO2008 Reference Case with the exception of TSL

1, which forecasts no changes in electricity consumption. The natural gas savings predicted by

the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model range from 0.1 to 0.3 percent of total residential

natural gas consumption by year 2030 with electricity savings amounting to less than 0.0 percent

for all TSLs.

Residential microwave ovens save electricity for both pairs of 4 TSLs compared to the

AEO2008 Reference Case, with no savings from natural gas consumption. The electricity savings

predicted by the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model range from 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total

residential electricity consumption by year 2030.

14-3

# Commercial clothes washers save natural gas for all five TSLs compared to the AEO2008

Reference Case. The natural savings predicted by the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model

range from 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total commercial natural gas consumption by year 2030. The

savings from electricity are less than 0.0 percent of total commercial electricity consumption for

all five TSLs.

Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast



# NEMS-BT Results: AEO2008 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1 

# Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32

Other (Quads) 3 

# 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67

1 

# Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.99

Other (EJ) 0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78

Other (Quads)3 0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4



# Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658

Total (TWh) 5 

# 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214



# Installed Generating Capacity 6



# Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8

Other Fossil (GW) 7 

# 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5

Total (GW) 8 

# 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1

1 

# Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2008: Energy Consumption

2 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

# Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal,

and renewable energy

4 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

# Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

# Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

# Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

# Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells



# 14-4

# The results from the AEO2008 High Economic Growth Reference Case and AEO2008

Low Economic Growth Reference Case for the one proposed TSL from each of the 3 products

are presented in Tables 14.4.19 through 14.4.24. Tables 14.4.19 through 14.4.21 present the

results from the High Economic Growth Case for residential cooking products, microwave

ovens, and commercial clothes washers, respectively. Tables 14.4.22 through 14.4.24 present

the results from the Low Economic Growth Case for residential cooking products, microwave

ovens, and commercial clothes washers, respectively.

14-5Table 14.4.2 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6201,722Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.010.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.345.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.010.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5752,836Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.1Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7074,9555,214Total (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-6Table 14.4.3 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6201,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.60.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.010.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.345.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.010.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5752,836Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.20.10.10.10.1Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7074,9555,214Total (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-7Table 14.4.4 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6201,722Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.60.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.60Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.295.345.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.00.00.00.10.30.20.20.20.2Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7074,9555,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-8Table 14.4.5 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.9-1.00.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.585.635.60Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.295.345.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.4-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.9Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.10.10.40.30.30.30.3Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7064,9545,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.214-9Table 14.4.6 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1a ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6201,722Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5752,836Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7064,9545,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-10Table 14.4.7 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2a ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5391,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.9Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7064,9545,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-11Table 14.4.8 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3a ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5391,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.4-0.8-1.0-1.1-1.3-1.4-1.5Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.7-1.0-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1Gas (TWh)757907903832766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7064,9545,212Total (TWh)0.0-0.4-1.0-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.6-1.6Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 992.9 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.214-12Table 14.4.9 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4a ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4711,5391,6191,720Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.6-1.9-2.1-2.2Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,834Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.5-1.5Gas (TWh)757907903832766736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.4-1.0-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7054,9535,212Total (TWh)0.0-0.5-1.4-1.9-2.1-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.5 466.9 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 992.9 1,039.1 1,104.7 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.214-13Table 14.4.10 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1b ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5391,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.4-0.9-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.1-1.1Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8Gas (TWh)757907903832766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7064,9545,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.3-1.2-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3-1.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 466.9 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 992.9 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-14Table 14.4.11 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2b ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4711,5391,6181,720Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.7-1.4-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.7-1.7Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.4-1.0-1.4-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2Gas (TWh)757907903832766736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.4-1.2-1.0-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4654,7054,9535,212Total (TWh)0.0-0.5-1.7-2.2-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.0Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.5 444.5 466.9 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 992.9 1,039.1 1,104.7 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.214-15Table 14.4.12 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4711,5381,6181,720Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-1.0-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.4-2.5-2.5Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1812,3572,5732,834Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.6-1.5-2.0-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8Gas (TWh)757906902832765736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.5-1.7-1.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Total (TWh)4,0344,2764,4654,7044,9525,211Total (TWh)0.0-0.7-2.5-3.1-2.9-2.8-2.8-2.8-2.8Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.6 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.5 444.5 466.9 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.4Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (GW)952.41,004.2 992.8 1,039.0 1,104.6 1,171.8Total (GW)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.314-16Table 14.4.13 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4b ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4701,5371,6161,718Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-1.6-3.2-3.5-3.7-3.9-4.1-4.2Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1812,3562,5722,833Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.9-2.4-3.3-2.9-2.9-2.9-2.9Gas (TWh)757906901831765736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.9-2.8-2.2-0.9-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Total (TWh)4,0344,2764,4634,7024,9505,209Total (TWh)0.0-1.2-4.0-5.0-4.7-4.7-4.7-4.7-4.7Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.6 349.2 378.5 413.6Coal (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.5 444.4 466.8 493.7Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.5 134.3 143.3 149.4Renewables (GW)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (GW)952.41,004.1 992.7 1,038.9 1,104.4 1,171.6Total (GW)0.0-0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.514-17Table 14.4.14 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,2751,3861,5221,6611,8021,941Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Natural Gas (EJ)3.263.213.473.663.833.99Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)0.980.900.930.930.940.95Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)3.093.043.293.473.633.78Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads)0.930.850.880.880.890.90Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3582,5752,836Coal (TWh)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Gas (TWh)757907904833766737Gas (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Petroleum (TWh)1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh)357462517588639658Renewables (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4674,7074,9555,214Total (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-18Table 14.4.15 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.99 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002030-0.20.000.000.000.002035 2040 2042-0.2 -0.2 -0.20.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2-0.20.00.00.00.0-0.2-0.2 -0.2 -0.20.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0-0.2 -0.2 -0.2Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1 Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.014-19Table 14.4.16 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.98 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002030-0.30.000.000.000.002035 2040 2042-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3-0.30.10.00.00.0-0.3-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.1 0.1 0.10.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0-0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1 Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.014-20Table 14.4.17 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,197 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.98 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)1.03 0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.98 0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002025-0.30.000.000.000.002030-0.30.000.000.000.002035 2040 2042-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,976 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2Gas (TWh)647 757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 366 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,872 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3-0.30.10.00.00.0-0.3-0.30.10.00.00.0-0.3-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.1 0.1 0.10.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0-0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)99.6 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 96.3 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)924.1 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1 Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.014-21Table 14.4.18 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.98 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002030-0.30.000.000.000.002035 2040 2042-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3-0.30.10.00.00.0-0.3-0.3 -0.3 -0.30.1 0.1 0.10.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0-0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1 Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.014-22Table 14.4.19 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 High Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,455 1,495 1,587 1,690 1,824Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.23 5.51 5.74 5.84 5.87Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)2.021.86 1.87 1.88 1.84 1.81Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.96 5.22 5.44 5.53 5.56Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.911.76 1.77 1.78 1.74 1.72Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,229 2,540 2,806 3,129Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Gas (TWh)757 942 964 823 766 731Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 61 63 67Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 888 966 1,047Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 463 520 599 664 689Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,313 4,577 4,911 5,265 5,663Total (TWh)0.0-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 335.6 374.7 410.5 456.0Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.5 443.6 452.5 479.9 510.2Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 113.6 122.9 131.8Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.4 126.3 136.5 148.3 155.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.8 1,007.6 1,077.3 1,161.6 1,253.5Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-23Table 14.4.20 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b High Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case200520102015202020252030200520102015202020252030203520402042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,3591,4551,4941,5851,6881,822Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00.0-1.0-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.4-2.5-2.5Natural Gas (EJ) 5.245.235.515.745.855.88Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.881.841.81Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.974.965.225.445.545.57Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.01Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.781.741.72Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,2282,5372,8023,125Coal (TWh)0.00.0-1.2-3.3-3.7-3.7-3.7-3.7-3.7Gas (TWh)757941963824768733Gas (TWh)0.0-0.6-0.60.81.62.22.22.22.2Petroleum (TWh) 1235657616367Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh)7827978078889661,047Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh) 357463520599664689Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Total (TWh)4,0344,3124,5754,9085,2625,661Total (TWh)0.0-0.7-2.0-2.9-2.6-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.0Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0335.5374.4410.2455.6Coal (GW)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Other Fossil (GW) 438.9465.5443.6452.5480.0510.3Other Fossil (GW)0.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9102.1113.6122.9131.8Nuclear (GW)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (GW) 99.5118.4126.3136.4148.2155.4Renewables (GW)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (GW)952.41,004.81,007.51,077.01,161.31,253.2Total (GW)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.314-24Table 14.4.21 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 High Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 High Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,275 1,393 1,546 1,713 1,882 2,054Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Natural Gas (EJ)3.263.23 3.53 3.79 4.03 4.25Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)0.980.90 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)3.093.06 3.35 3.60 3.82 4.03Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.930.85 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,229 2,540 2,806 3,129Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Gas (TWh)757 942 964 823 766 731Gas (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 61 63 67Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 888 966 1,047Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 463 520 599 664 689Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,313 4,577 4,911 5,265 5,663Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 335.6 374.7 410.5 456.0Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.5 443.6 452.5 479.9 510.2Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 113.6 122.9 131.8Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.4 126.3 136.5 148.3 155.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.8 1,007.6 1,077.3 1,161.6 1,253.5Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-25Table 14.4.22 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Low Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,444 1,448 1,495 1,550 1,619Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.21 5.39 5.46 5.44 5.34Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)2.021.87 1.85 1.83 1.76 1.73Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.94 5.11 5.18 5.15 5.06Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.911.77 1.75 1.73 1.67 1.64Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,054 2,144 2,232 2,363 2,538Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Gas (TWh)757 876 831 794 758 730Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Petroleum (TWh)123 56 56 59 64 65Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 854 860 837Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 457 511 568 612 624Renewables (TWh)0.0-0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,240 4,349 4,507 4,657 4,794Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 325.1 334.3 351.8 376.2Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9464.7 427.8 435.5 452.0 467.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 108.9 108.9 104.4Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5117.0 122.8 130.0 137.5 140.3Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,002.6 977.8 1,008.7 1,050.1 1,088.7Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-26Table 14.4.23 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3b Low Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,444 1,447 1,493 1,548 1,617 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.21 5.39 5.47 5.44 5.35 Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01Other (EJ)2.02 1.87 1.85 1.83 1.76 1.73 Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.94 5.11 5.18 5.16 5.07 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01Other (Quads)1.91 1.77 1.75 1.73 1.67 1.64 Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,054 2,143 2,231 2,361 2,535 Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 -2.4 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0Gas (TWh)757 875 830 793 758 730 Gas (TWh)0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 56 59 64 65 Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 854 860 837 Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh) 357 457 511 568 612 624 Renewables (TWh)0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Total (TWh)4,034 4,239 4,347 4,505 4,654 4,791 Total (TWh)0.0 -0.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8 320.0 325.1 334.2 351.6 375.9 Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 464.7 427.7 435.4 452.0 467.9 Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2 100.9 102.1 108.9 108.9 104.4 Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW) 99.5 117.0 122.8 130.0 137.5 140.3 Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.4 1,002.6 977.6 1,008.5 1,049.9 1,088.5 Total (GW)0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.314-27Table 14.4.24 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Low Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Low Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,275 1,375 1,491 1,609 1,723 1,829Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Natural Gas (EJ)3.263.19 3.41 3.52 3.64 3.73Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)0.980.90 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)3.093.02 3.23 3.34 3.45 3.54Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)0.930.85 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.88Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,054 2,144 2,232 2,363 2,538Coal (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Gas (TWh)757 876 831 794 758 730Gas (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)123 56 56 59 64 65Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 854 860 837Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 457 511 568 612 624Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,240 4,349 4,507 4,657 4,794Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 325.1 334.3 351.8 376.2Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9464.7 427.8 435.5 452.0 467.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 108.9 108.9 104.4Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5117.0 122.8 130.0 137.5 140.3Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,002.6 977.8 1,008.7 1,050.2 1,088.8Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-28

# 1 

# REFERENCES

U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2008 (Revised Early Release) with Projections to 2030 . 2008: Washington, DC.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >

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