Public Health Benefits of Reducing 

Ground-level Ozone and 

Fine Particle Matter 

in the Northeast U.S. 

A Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program 

(BenMAP) Study 

Prepared by 

NESCAUM 

For 

The Ozone Transport Commission and 

The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union 

January 15, 2008 
Members of Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management 

Arthur Marin, Executive Director 

Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management

Anne Gobin, Bureau Chief 

Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Management 

James P. Brooks, Bureau Director 

Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Quality 

Barbara Kwetz, Director 

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Waste Prevention 

Robert Scott, Director 

New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, Air Resources Division 

William O’Sullivan, Director 

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Office of Air Quality Management 

David Shaw, Director 

New York Department of Environmental Conservation, Division of Air Resources

Stephen Majkut, Chief 

Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, Office of Air Resources 

Richard A. Valentinetti, Director 

Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, Air Pollution Control Division 
ii 

Public Health Benefits of Reducing 

Ground-level Ozone and 

Fine Particle Matter 

in the Northeast U.S. 

A Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program 

(BenMAP) Study 

Prepared by 

NESCAUM 

For 

The Ozone Transport Commission and 

The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union 

January 15, 2008
iii 

Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level 

Ozone and Fine Particle Matter in the Northeast U.S. 

A BENMAP STUDY 

Project Managers

Paul Miller, Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM 

Principle Contributors

Iyad Kheirbek, John Graham, Shan He, NESCAUM 
iv 

Acknowledgments 

We are grateful to the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services for 

providing air quality modeling results from its analysis of a potential CAIR+ control 

strategy. These results were central to our estimate of health benefits due to this measure 

in 2018. We also gratefully acknowledge the technical assistance and guidance of Neal 

Fann of U.S. EPA and Donald McCubbin and Hardee Mahoney of Abt Associates who 

ably guided us in the use and limitations of the BenMAP tool. Funding was provided by 

the Ozone Transport Commission directly as well as through U.S. EPA agreement 

number XA-97318101-0 to the Ozone Transport Commission in support of the MANEVU Regional Planning Organization. NESCAUM is solely responsible for the content of 

this report and any errors it may contain. 

Printed: January 2008 
v 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv 

Executive Summary.........................................................................................................viii 

1. Introduction.............................................................................................................. 1-1 

2. Methods.................................................................................................................... 2-1 

2.1. Benefits Analysis Overview ............................................................................ 2-1 

2.2. Estimates of Air Pollution Exposure................................................................ 2-2 

2.2.1. CALGRID Modeling for O3 and PM2.5 ................................................... 2-3 

2.2.2. CMAQ Modeling for PM2.5 for Regional Haze Control Programs ......... 2-4 

2.2.3. EPA’s Air Quality System....................................................................... 2-5 

2.3. Population ........................................................................................................ 2-5 

2.4. Health Benefits Assessment............................................................................. 2-6 

2.5. Describing Uncertainty .................................................................................... 2-6 

2.6. Pooling and Aggregation of Studies ................................................................ 2-7 

2.7. Baseline Incidence Rates ................................................................................. 2-7 

2.8. Concentration-Response Functions and Valuation Methods........................... 2-8 

2.8.1. Ozone Concentration-Response Functions.............................................. 2-8 

2.8.2. PM2.5 Concentration-Response Functions ............................................. 2-15 

2.8.3. Economic Value for Health Benefits ..................................................... 2-21 

3. Benefits of CAIR-Plus control scenario .................................................................. 3-1 

3.1. Benefits from Reductions in Ozone................................................................. 3-1 

3.2. Benefits from Reductions in PM2.5 .................................................................. 3-4 

3.3. CAIR+ Benefits Discussion............................................................................. 3-7 

4. SO2 control measures in MANE-VU....................................................................... 4-1

4.1. Reduced sulfur fuel content (S1 and S2) ......................................................... 4-1 

4.2. Best Available Retrofit Program (BART) ....................................................... 4-6 

4.3. 167 EGU Strategy............................................................................................ 4-9 

4.4. Summary of Regional Haze Program Benefits.............................................. 4-12 

5. Benefits Analysis of the Proposed Ozone NAAQS................................................. 5-1 

5.1. Overview and Input Assumptions.................................................................... 5-1 

5.2. Results.............................................................................................................. 5-2 

6. Conclusions.............................................................................................................. 6-1 

7. References................................................................................................................ 7-1 

Appendix A: State Level Benefits for Regional Haze Programs.................................... A-1 

Appendix B: State Level Benefits for CAIR+ ................................................................ B-1 
vi 

FIGURES 

Figure 2-1. BenMAP analysis approach (taken from BenMAP User’s Manual, Abt 

Associates, 2003) .................................................................................................. 2-2 

Figure 2-2. Modeling domain used for CMAQ and CALGRID modeling studies. 

Gridlines are shown at 180 km intervals (15 x 15 12km cells)............................. 2-3 

Figure 3-1. Average change in 1-hr maximum ozone concentration due to CAIR+ 

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1st-Sept. 30th), ppb (positive numbers 

indicates an ozone decrease) ................................................................................. 3-1 

Figure 3-2. Average change in 24-hr mean ozone concentration due to CAIR+ measures 

during 2018 ozone season (May 1st-Sept. 30th), ppb (positive numbers indicate an 

ozone decrease) ..................................................................................................... 3-2 

Figure 3-3. Average change in 24-hr mean PM2.5 concentration due to CAIR+ measures 

during 2018 (Jan. 1st-Dec. 31st), μg/m3 (positive numbers indicate a decrease)... 3-5 

Figure 4-1. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to S1 emission reductions (μg/m3) ...... 4-2 

Figure 4-2. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to S2 emission reductions, relative to S1 

(μg/m3) .................................................................................................................. 4-4 

Figure 4-3. Potential reductions from BART-eligible sources in the MANE-VU region 

(tons) ..................................................................................................................... 4-7 

Figure 4-4. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to BART emission reductions (μg/m3) 4-7 

Figure 4-5. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to 167 EGU emission reductions....... 4-10 

TABLES 

Table 2-1. Summary of studies used in ozone benefits assessment................................. 2-9 

Table 2-2. Summary of studies used in PM2.5 benefits analysis.................................... 2-16 

Table 2-3. Effect estimates for hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness from Ito 

(2003). ................................................................................................................. 2-19 

Table 2-4. Effect estimates used by BenMAP to estimate benefits from asthma 

exacerbation. ....................................................................................................... 2-20 

Table 2-5. Unit values for health incidences used in benefits analysis (Abt, 2005)...... 2-22 

Table 3-1. Summary of avoided incidences attributed to reduced ozone due to CAIR+ in 

OTR states............................................................................................................. 3-3 

Table 3-2. Summary of the value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced ozone due 

to CAIR+ in OTR states........................................................................................ 3-3 

Table 3-3. Summary of the number and value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced 

PM2.5 due to CAIR+ in OTR states....................................................................... 3-6 

Table 3-4. Total estimated value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

CAIR+ in OTR states............................................................................................ 3-6 

Table 3-5. Total estimated value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

CAIR+ in states outside of OTR. .......................................................................... 3-7 

Table 4-1. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1 fuel sulfur control.4-

2 

Table 4-2. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1 fuel sulfur 

control (millions of 2000$). .................................................................................. 4-3 

Table 4-3. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1 fuel 

sulfur control (millions of 2000$)......................................................................... 4-3 
vii 

Table 4-4. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 15 ppm fuel sulfur 

control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit. ............................................................... 4-5 

Table 4-5. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 15 ppm fuel 

sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit (millions of 2000$)...................... 4-5 

Table 4-6. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 15 ppm 

fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit (millions of 2000$)............... 4-6 

Table 4-7. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 15 ppm 

fuel sulfur control relative to OTB/OTW (millions of 2000$). ............................ 4-6 

Table 4-8. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART...................... 4-8 

Table 4-9. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART 

(millions of 2000$)................................................................................................ 4-9 

Table 4-10. Total Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART 

(millions of 2000$)................................................................................................ 4-9 

Table 4-11. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 from 167 EGU strategy.. 4-11 

Table 4-12. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU 

strategy (millions of 2000$)................................................................................ 4-11 

Table 4-13. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 

EGU strategy (millions of 2000$)....................................................................... 4-12 

Table 4-14. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to regional 

haze programs in MANE-VU (millions of 2000$). ............................................ 4-12 

Table 5-1. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided 

Incidences.............................................................................................................. 5-3 

Table 5-2. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided 

Incidences.............................................................................................................. 5-3 

Table 5-3. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided 

Incidences.............................................................................................................. 5-4 

Table 5-4. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of 

Avoided Incidences............................................................................................... 5-4 

Table 5-5. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of 

Avoided Incidences............................................................................................... 5-5 

Table 5-6. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of 

Avoided Incidences............................................................................................... 5-5 
viii 

Executive Summary 

In this report, the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management 

(NESCAUM) examines the public health and monetary benefits of several potential 

emission control programs under consideration by the Ozone Transport Commission 

(OTC) and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) states. These programs 

include an electric generating unit (EGU) control strategy for nitrogen oxides (NOX) and 

sulfur dioxide (SO2) that increases the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule 

(CAIR) and SO2 emissions control strategies that would complement existing regulations 

to further reduce fine particle concentrations and improve visibility under the Regional 

Haze Rule. In addition, we performed an examination of the benefits of achieving 

several different levels of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for 8-

hour average ozone concentrations (NAAQS rollback).

We have used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) 

Environmental Benefits Modeling and Analysis Program (BenMAP) (Abt Associates, 

2007) to determine the magnitude and value of avoided adverse health endpoints in the 

northeast U.S. associated with the various emission control programs in 2018. Future 

year air quality associated with implementation of various control strategies have been 

simulated using two air quality modeling platforms, the Community Multi-scale Air 

Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the California Photochemical Grid Model 

(CALGRID). 

We estimated future air quality associated with a more stringent CAIR rule 

(CAIR+) using CALGRID. Based on our benefits analysis for 2018, we found that PM2.5

reductions throughout the year due to CAIR+ could result in 230 avoided premature 

deaths in the OTC states. Combined with reduced incidences of various morbidity 

endpoints, we estimated a total PM2.5 related benefit of 1.5 billion dollars annually in the 

OTR. Using the same modeling platform, we estimated that CAIR+ reductions in ozone 

during the May 1st-September 30th ozone season could lead to 24 to 76 avoided premature 

deaths (range of five ozone mortality risk estimates). When added to other projected 

benefits due to reduced incidences of morbidity, we estimated a total ozone related 

benefit of 170 to 500 million dollars. Overall, we estimate the CAIR+ program to result 

in health benefits of 1.7 to 2.0 billion dollars in 2018 due to reduced adverse health 

endpoints from exposures to PM2.5 and ozone in the OTR. In states outside the OTR, we 

estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 billion dollars due to ozone reductions and 4.4 

billion dollars due to PM2.5 reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars. Across 

the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we estimated a total benefit to the program of 

6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars. 

We examined four potential control strategies aimed at reducing visibility 

impairment, or regional haze, at Class I areas in the MANE-VU region. The programs 

under consideration include limitations on the fuel sulfur content of distillate (500 ppm 

fuel sulfur content for the S1 strategy and 15 ppm fuel sulfur content for the S2 strategy) 

and residual oil sold in the region, the Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) 

provisions of the Regional Haze Rule, and controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (“167 EGU 

strategy”) that have the most significant impacts on MANE-VU Class I areas. Of the four 

programs, the 167 EGU stack control program leads to the greatest benefit in the region, 

resulting in 6.5 billion dollars of health benefit. The first phase of a sulfur-in-fuels 
ix 

limitation (S1) leads to health benefits of almost 3.4 billion dollars in MANE-VU. 

Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm (S2) could lead to an additional 431 million 

dollars in benefits, bringing the total benefits to 3.7 billion dollars. The BART estimate 

is based on controls at 14 units likely to be controlled under BART alone and with no 

other program that would satisfy the BART requirement. CMAQ and BenMAP 

modeling suggest that controls at these units could lead to 1.4 billion dollars of benefits in 

MANE-VU. 

Looking across all regional haze programs, we estimate a four program total of 

11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. This benefit estimate is 

based on a 15 ppm fuel sulfur control, BART controls on 14 units in MANE-VU, and 

stack controls at 167 EGUs in the East, Southeast, and the Midwest. Additionally, 4.9 

billion dollars of health benefits are estimated for the states within The Visibility 

Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) and The Midwest 

Regional Planning Organization (MWRPO) in 2018 due to implementation of these haze 

control strategies. 

In the third step of this analysis, we estimated the benefits of attaining three 

alternative 8-hour ozone health standards – 0.060 ppm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4th

highest daily 8-hour max) – in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) using BenMAP. We 

started with a baseline that included all “Beyond on the Way” (BOTW) measures and 

CAIR+, then used BenMAP to roll back all monitors in the domain to each of the three 

alternative ozone standards. We calculated benefits based on the difference between the 

baseline grid and the rolled back grid. 

The analysis showed that there are significant monetized health benefits in going 

beyond a revised ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 ppm, 

which is the upper end of EPA’s range for its proposed ozone NAAQS revision 

(0.070 ppm – 0.075 ppm). Rolling back to a NAAQS of 0.075 ppm after CAIR+ gave an 

estimate of 27 to 142 avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR. 

When added to the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimated monetary 

benefits of 192 to 918 million dollars over the 2018 ozone season. By contrast, adopting 

an ozone NAAQS of 0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the range recommended by the 

Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC)) increases the mortality benefits with 

an estimated 43 to 220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. 

When added to the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimate an additional 

monetary benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyond a 0.075 ppm standard (total benefit 

of 300 million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Finally, adopting an ozone NAAQS at 

the lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm, results in an increased 

estimate of 84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. 

Compared to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling indicates that a NAAQS set at 0.060 

ppm could net almost twice the monetary benefits by providing 394 million dollars to 1.7 

billion dollars beyond a 75 ppb standard (total benefit of 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars 

after CAIR+) 

.
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 1-1

 

1. INTRODUCTION 

In order to fully understand the benefits of emission control programs, we must 

understand how reductions in direct emissions of air pollutants and their precursor 

species translate into improvements in ambient air quality. This has traditionally been 

achieved through the development of emissions inventories and their application to 

chemical transport models that simulate air quality under different inventory 

assumptions. Our growing understanding of the public health effects of air quality has 

allowed the development of a new suite of tools for assessing the next link in this chain – 

the subsequent effect of ambient air quality on public health. 

Assessment tools are now available that take simulated or monitored ambient air 

quality as an input and link them to changes in health outcomes. Based on assumed or 

modeled changes in pollution levels, the tool tabulates the most likely public health 

response and quantifies the economic value of the associated health costs. This enables 

the analyst to more fully account for the benefits of potential emission control strategies. 

In this report, we demonstrate that ability by examining the public health and monetary 

benefits of several potential emission control programs under consideration by the Ozone 

Transport Commission (OTC) and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) 

States. We have conducted this analysis in the event that the states find the information 

useful in establishing reasonable progress goals or considering future control programs 

related to achieving an ozone or fine particulate NAAQS. The control programs 

considered include: 

• An EGU control strategy for nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulfur dioxide 

(SO2) that increases the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule 

(CAIR), 

• Additional SO2 emissions control strategies that would complement

existing regulations to further reduce fine particle concentrations and 

improve visibility under the regional haze rule, and 

• A theoretical examination of the benefits of achieving several different 

levels of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for 8-hour 

average ozone concentrations (NAAQS rollback). 

We have used EPA’s Environmental Benefits Modeling and Analysis Program 

(BenMAP) (Abt Associates, 2007) to determine the magnitude and value of avoided 

adverse health endpoints in the northeast U.S. associated with air quality improvement in 

2018. Future year air quality associated with implementation of various control strategies 

have been simulated using two air quality modeling platforms, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the California Photochemical Grid 

Model (CALGRID). 

In the first step of this analysis, we used CALGRID modeled ozone and PM2.5

concentrations in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) in 2018 to examine the potential 

health benefits of an increase in the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule 

(CAIR). Multi-state discussions within the OTR and with neighboring states outside the 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 1-2

 

OTR have included the potential of states acting alone or in partnership with EPA to 

increase the stringency of the CAIR program, termed CAIR+. The specific analysis here 

represents a CAIR+ proposal as a potential compromise among a large number of 

northeastern and Midwestern states. This proposal had been modeled in ICF 

International, Inc.’s Integrated Planning Model (IPM) and subsequently simulated by the 

New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services with the CALGRID modeling 

platform. We present these results as representative of the magnitude of health benefits 

associated with this type of program rather than the specific benefits that would accrue 

under whatever additional EGU control program may eventually result from such 

discussions in the future. 

A second analysis examined potential benefits of modeled sulfate reductions in 

2018 due to implementation of four potential control strategies aimed at reducing 

visibility impairment, or regional haze, at Class I areas in the MANE-VU region 

(NESCAUM, 2007a). The programs under consideration include limitations on the fuel 

sulfur content of distillate and residual oil sold in the region (S1 strategy-500 ppm fuel 

sulfur content for No. 2 distillate, 0.25 percent sulfur for No. 4 oil, and 0.5 percent sulfur 

for No. 6 oil; S2 strategy-15 ppm fuel sulfur content for No. 2 distillate, 0.25 percent 

sulfur for No. 4 oil, and 0.5 percent for sulfur No. 6 oil), the BART provisions of the 

Regional Haze Rule, and controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (“167 EGU strategy”) that have 

the most significant impacts on MANE-VU Class I areas. 

Finally, we applied a “rollback” approach to determine the health benefits that can 

be accrued if various levels of the 8-hr average NAAQS for ozone were met in 2018. We 

estimated the benefits of attaining three alternative 8-hour ozone health standards – 0.060 

ppm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4th highest daily 8-hour max) – in the OTR using 

BenMAP. We started with a baseline that included all “Beyond on the Way” (BOTW) 

measures and CAIR+, then used BenMAP to roll back all monitors in the domain to each 

of the three alternative ozone standards. 

Chapter 2 provides a detailed description of the BenMAP framework and how we 

used it to estimate health benefits for the northeast U.S. This includes descriptions of the 

various health studies and detailed descriptions of the modeling procedure and statistical 

methods for the three strategies. Chapters 3 through 5 discuss each of the potential 

control strategies and present results of the corresponding health benefits analyses. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-1

 

2. METHODS 

2.1. Benefits Analysis Overview 

The U.S. EPA along with Abt Associates Inc. have developed BenMAP, a 

Windows-based program, as a tool for estimating the health impacts and associated 

economic values resulting from changes in ambient air pollution. This is accomplished 

by applying health impact functions that relate a change in pollutant concentration with a 

change in the incidence of a health endpoint. The program allows users to estimate the 

health and economic benefits of an air quality program while adequately describing the 

uncertainty and variability in the estimate (Davidson et al., 2007). 

Ambient air quality grids (gridded data files that include air pollution information 

used in BenMAP) are created from monitored air quality data, modeled air quality data, 

or a combination of the two. Potentially exposed populations can be modeled for 

incidence rates at any year after 1990, using 1990 and 2000 census data along with 

county-level projections out to 2025. Populations can be further broken down by 

geographical area, race, gender, and age. 

BenMAP uses a “damage-function” approach to estimate the benefits associated 

with improvements air quality. This method assigns values to changes in individual 

health endpoints (specific effects that can be associated with changes in air quality). 

Total benefits are then calculated as the sum of the values of all non-overlapping health 

endpoints.1 This introduces no overall preference structure and does not account for 

potential income or substitution effects, so that adding a new endpoint will not affect the 

value of changes in other endpoints. (Davidson et al., 2007; EPA, 2005; Levy et al.,

2001; Hubbell et al., 2005). Figure 2-1 shows the major steps taken in the damage 

function approach used by BenMAP to develop benefit estimates. 

BenMAP estimates pollutant exposures using air quality monitoring or modeling 

data, or a combination thereof. The user can create air quality grids to estimate average 

exposure to particulate matter and ozone for people living in a specified domain using 

outputs from various air quality models. Alternatively, the user can input monitoring 

data and estimate a population’s exposure based on proximity to pollutant monitors or 

use the monitoring data available in the BenMAP package. Combining the two 

approaches, BenMAP can scale the monitoring data spatially and/or temporally using 

modeled data. 

Included in the BenMAP package are databases of concentration-response 

functions and economic valuations of health impacts. BenMAP users first choose the 

health endpoints they wish to model and then choose from a list of epidemiological 

studies reporting incidence rates for each chosen health endpoint. The user can pool 

different incidence rates from multiple studies using a variety of statistical methods. 

Similarly, valuation functions are available for different health endpoints, allowing the 

user to choose valuation studies and pool across multiple studies. 

 

1

 Overlapping endpoints are effect estimates that may describe the same effect. For example, one study

may describe the relationship between ozone exposure and pneumonia while another describes the 

relationship between ozone exposure and any adverse respiratory endpoint, which would include 

pneumonia. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-2

 

We used U.S. census data and population projections for the baseline and control 

population databases. These databases, included in the BenMAP package, contain 

demographic and population distribution information. In the second step, we used air 

quality modeling data developed using the CMAQ and CALGRID models, formatted to 

BenMAP specifications. We supplied the air quality grids for the baseline scenario and 

control scenario and BenMAP calculated the grid-cell-specific change in air quality. In 

the third step, we chose the health endpoints of interest as well as the published studies 

describing the risk estimate. We based our choices of studies from EPA (2005) and 

Davidson et al. (2007). Finally, we chose valuation functions for each health endpoint to 

determine the economic benefit of each control scenario. 

Figure 2-1. BenMAP analysis approach (taken from BenMAP User’s Manual, Abt 

Associates, 2003) 

2.2. Estimates of Air Pollution Exposure 

BenMAP offers several ways to estimate exposures using a combination of air 

quality modeling and/or monitoring data. For this benefits analysis, we have used two 

regional-scale air quality models, CMAQ and CALGRID, to simulate ozone and PM2.5

concentrations in future years. Both platforms model air quality within a 12-km domain 

that covers the northeastern, central and southeastern US as well as southeastern Canada. 

The domain extends from 66oW~94oW in longitude and 29oN~50oN in latitude with 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-3

 

172X172 grid cells. Figure 2-2 displays the modeling domain used in the CMAQ and 

CALGRID platforms. 

Figure 2-2. Modeling domain used for CMAQ and CALGRID modeling studies. 

Gridlines are shown at 180 km intervals (15 x 15 12km cells). 

2.2.1. CALGRID Modeling for O3 and PM2.5

The CALGRID model is an Eulerian photochemical transport and dispersion 

model. It includes modules for horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion, dry 

deposition, and chemical mechanisms. The New Hampshire Department of 

Environmental Services performed all CALGRID modeling and provided the results to 

NESCAUM. 

CALGRID modeling was performed to assess the benefits of one potential Clean 

Air Interstate Rule Plus (CAIR+) program option. To determine the benefits of this 

option, the concentration change between two future-year modeled scenarios was 

assessed. The chosen reference scenario represents a 2018 projection of emissions and 

air quality, which corresponds to compliance with all current Clean Air Act regulations, 

as well as state and federal measures that are seen by states as being necessary to achieve 

compliance with the current 8-hour ozone NAAQS. With the inclusion of state measures 

that have been or will be adopted by OTC states for their 2007 ozone state 

implementation plans (SIPs), this scenario goes beyond previous requirements and is 

referred to as “Beyond on the Way” (BOTW). While states and EPA are currently 

determining whether these measures will be enough to achieve the ozone NAAQS by the 

2010 attainment date, there is little question that these programs will be fully 

implemented by 2018, the analysis year for this study. The MANE-VU Regional 

Planning Organization (RPO) inventory development and modeling work provide more 

detailed information on the BOTW scenario (MARAMA, 2007a; NESCAUM, 2007a). 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-4

 

 The control scenario compared against this reference scenario is a CAIR+ 

scenario. A separate report documents the basis of this scenario and the associated 

assumptions used in its creation (MARAMA, 2007b). 

For analysis of CAIR+ reductions in ozone, we supplied BenMAP with hourly 

data files for the summertime ozone season, May 1st-September 30th in 2018 and 2002. 

The application used these hourly data files to generate a variety of air quality metrics 

including, 8-hour average, 8-hour maximum, 24-hour average, 5-hour average, and 

maximum 1-hour average. For analysis of PM2.5, we used 24-hour average data available 

from CALGRID modeling for the entire year of 2018 and 2002. 

We developed future year air quality grids for ozone in BenMAP using the 

“monitor and model relative” option. In this option, we began with 2002 EPA Air 

Quality System (AQS) monitoring data. These data were interpolated to the 172x172 

12km modeling grid definition using the Voronoi Neighbor Averaging (VNA) algorithm. 

A detailed description of the VNA algorithm can be found in Appendix C of Abt, 2005. 

The monitor values were scaled using the modeled air quality data. This was 

done in two steps, spatial scaling and temporal scaling. In the spatial scaling step, 

BenMAP used 2002 CALGRID modeling data with 2002 EPA AQS interpolated 

monitoring data. BenMAP spatially scaled by adjusting the modeled concentration of 

each grid cell without a monitor by multiplying the monitored concentration from the 

nearest monitor by the ratio of the modeled concentration at the grid cell without the 

monitor to the modeled concentration at the grid cell containing the monitor. In the 

temporal scaling step, the concentrations of the monitors were scaled by the ratio of the 

2002 modeled concentration to the 2018 modeled concentration for the grid cell in which 

the monitor is located to develop future year estimates of air quality. 

The scaling approach is meant to take advantage of real world measured PM2.5

and ozone concentrations. The spatial scaling step is meant to improve the interpolation 

of monitor data to grid cells without monitors by including modeled information on 

spatial characteristics. The temporal scaling step is useful for using monitored data in 

combination with model predicted changes in air quality to develop future year air quality 

estimates (Davidson et al., 2007). 

The interpolation and scaling steps result in two sets of 172 x 172 12km grid cell 

air quality grids for CAIR+ and BOTW, one set for ozone and one set for PM2.5. We 

assessed the benefits of the CAIR+ program by looking at the difference between the 

CAIR+ grid and the BOTW grid for each pollutant individually. Concentration 

differences within each grid cell were applied to concentration-response functions to 

determine the change in adverse health endpoints within each grid cell. 

We present the results of the health benefits analysis for this CAIR+ simulation in 

Chapter 3. In addition to analysis of CAIR+, we used the same CALGRID modeling data 

to assess the benefits of attainment of various proposed NAAQS for ozone. We describe 

this methodology in Chapter 5. 

2.2.2. CMAQ Modeling for PM2.5 for Regional Haze Control Programs 

The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system is a threedimensional Eulerian chemical transport model that incorporates output fields from 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-5

 

emissions and meteorological modeling systems and several other data sources through 

special interface processors. CMAQ is designed to provide an air quality modeling 

system with a “one atmosphere” capability containing state-of-science parameterizations 

of atmospheric processes affecting transport, transformation, and deposition of such 

pollutants as ozone, particulate matter, airborne toxics, and acidic and nutrient pollutant 

species (Byun and Ching, 1999). 

We have used the results from CMAQ sulfate modeling of 2018 to develop air 

quality grids for a baseline and multiple control scenarios. The baseline scenario for the 

work described here represents an “On the Books/On the Way” (OTB/OTW) emissions 

inventory. This is a projection that requires implementation of existing regulations in the 

face of “business as usual” projected growth and technology change. We have also 

developed multiple control scenarios to examine the benefits of regulation beyond 

OTB/OTW including a dual-phase fuel sulfur-content control strategy (S1 and S2), 

BART, and controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (167 EGU strategy). Chapter 4 of this 

document describes each of these control scenarios in further detail. 

CMAQ provided hourly sulfate concentration fields for the baseline scenario and 

the various control scenarios. To input this result into BenMAP, we used the sulfate 

concentrations to calculate the total PM2.5 concentrations using the IMPROVE algorithm: 

Equation 2-1. 

Total PM2.5 = (SO4*1.375)+(NO3*1.29)+OC+EC+FineSoil 

By applying Equation 2-1 to the sulfate concentrations predicted by CMAQ, we 

calculated hourly PM2.5 concentrations for each grid cell for the baseline scenario and 

each of the four control scenarios. For BenMAP compatibility, we then used the hourly 

files to generate 24-hr average concentrations for each modeled day. 

The 24-hour PM2.5 CMAQ predicted modeling results from 2018 were input into 

BenMAP’s “model direct” format. Using this format, BenMAP imports the baseline and 

each control grid to create air quality grids that reflect PM2.5 concentrations within each 

grid cell. BenMAP then looks at the difference between the grid cell concentrations in 

the baseline and control case to develop an estimate of change in concentration that is 

then used in determining the health benefit. 

2.2.3. EPA’s Air Quality System 

BenMAP contains monitored concentrations of ozone, PM2.5, and PM10 for the 

years 2000-2004 from EPA’s Air Quality System (AQS). In this analysis, we scaled 

2002 monitored concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 using model data to develop future 

year projections of air quality. 

2.3. Population 

We developed population estimates using PopGrid, an application developed by 

Abt Associates that aggregates U.S. census data to specified grid definitions. We 

aggregated the census data to the CMAQ 12km grid definition described above to give a 

baseline population grid that matched the pollution grid used in the analysis. The 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-6

 

population grid contains a variety of information including race, age, and gender. For the 

control scenarios, we calculate a 2018 population projection in BenMAP by calculating a 

population-weighted average of the county level population projection ratios for each 

grid cell. 

2.4. Health Benefits Assessment 

BenMAP can calculate adverse health effects related to hundreds of health impact 

functions that correspond to changes in PM2.5 and ozone concentrations. BenMAP’s 

database contains incidence rate data used to establish the baseline health conditions prior 

to calculating the change in health effect. In general terms, to calculate point estimates of 

the changes in incidence of a given health effect, BenMAP assesses the health impact 

function needed for analysis and accesses any data needed by the health impact function 

for each grid cell. These data include population information, the change in pollution 

exposure at the grid cell, the baseline incidence rate, and coefficients describing the 

uncertainty in the measurement. For each grid cell, the model calculates the change in 

incidence of adverse health effects for each health impact function and stores the 

information (Davidson et al., 2007). 

The relationship between the change in concentration of a pollutant and the 

change in incidences of a particular endpoint is described by a concentration-response (CR) function. C-R functions used in BenMAP’s calculations of health benefits are derived 

from epidemiological studies where researchers have used data on pollutants and 

associated health responses to develop these relationships. In general, these relationships 

follow a linear, log-linear, or quadratic form relating change in incidence to the change in 

pollution exposure in a grid cell using population information, the baseline incidence rate, 

and coefficients describing the uncertainty in the measurement. Section 2.8 of this 

document briefly describes each of the health studies used in this analysis. 

2.5. Describing Uncertainty 

Due to inherent uncertainty in health effect risk estimates and valuation estimates, 

we applied several steps to describe the uncertainty of the final benefit estimate. Each 

health impact function contains a mean risk estimate as well as a standard error of the 

estimate that are used to generate a distribution of estimates. 

To describe uncertainty in health effect estimates, BenMAP utilizes a “Latin 

Hypercube Points” method. Based on the number of points chosen by the user, BenMAP 

will generate a number of incidence estimates that mirror the variability in the inputs to 

the health impact function. At each grid cell, BenMAP calculates the incidence estimate 

multiple times, each time adjusting the pollutant coefficient to describe a different level 

of the distribution. BenMAP bases the adjustment on a calculation utilizing the standard 

error of the pollution coefficient, derived from the published epidemiological study. The 

output contains the mean of the estimate as well as an estimate of the incidence at 

multiple levels of the distribution. To describe the entire distribution, we have presented 

health estimates as a mean and the 5 percent and 95 percent levels of the distribution. 

In addition to providing confidence levels, we provide a range of estimates based 

on multiple studies examining ozone mortality. We chose five studies examining ozone 

effects on mortality to develop a range of estimated effects. For other morbidity 

endpoints, we provide specific estimates derived from studies examining groups of 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-7

 

adverse endpoints (i.e. any cardiovascular endpoint) as well as individual adverse health 

outcomes (i.e. myocardial infarctions). 

Throughout this document we present summary data on incidence and mortality 

as the mean of the distribution of the estimate. However, to ensure the uncertainty of the 

estimate is adequately represented, Appendices A and B present the estimates in further 

detail, showing each individual health endpoint and the 95 percent confidence interval 

surrounding the estimate. 

2.6. Pooling and Aggregation of Studies 

When a single study exists for a pollutant-health endpoint combination, BenMAP 

calculates the health benefit as the change in incidence rate based on that study’s 

concentration-response function. However, for endpoints where multiple impact 

functions are available from multiple studies, BenMAP can pool the incidence estimates 

using a variety of methods to increase the power of the estimate. For this analysis, when 

multiple studies were used to characterize a single health endpoint, we used fixed or 

random effects models to pool the multiple estimates. The fixed effects model assumes 

that a single true concentration-response estimate exists and differences between studies 

are simply the result of sampling error. This method assumes that there is one pollutant 

coefficient that can represent the entire modeled area. Fixed effects pooling weighs each 

study’s estimate by its inverse variance, giving more weight to studies with greater 

statistical power. When it cannot be assumed that that the only difference between 

studies is due to sampling error, random effects pooling is chosen. Random effects 

pooling is basically the same as the fixed effects model except it assumes that there is not 

only sampling error associated with each study, but that there is also between-study 

variability where underlying populations are different. Therefore, the variance is 

calculated as the sum of the within-study variance and the between study variance. 

Random effects pooling would be appropriate in situations with differing population 

groups, such as combining studies that take place in different locations, to account for 

differences in population susceptibility (Abt, 2005). 

When operating BenMAP, the user can choose random/fixed effects pooling 

when combining multiple studies. When this parameter is chosen, BenMAP first tests if 

random effects pooling should be used. This is done by testing a null hypothesis that 

there is a single underlying parameter (fixed effect pooling). If this null hypothesis is 

rejected, the random effects pooling method is utilized. If not, then one can assume 

sample error is the only source of variability and fixed effect pooling can be used (Abt,. 

2005). 

After pooling results and determining changes in incidences within each grid cell 

of the domain, the user can aggregate the results to various levels including county, state, 

and nation. We chose to aggregate these results to present the results as a total benefit 

across the entire state. 

2.7. Baseline Incidence Rates 

To estimate the change in incidences of health endpoints, BenMAP relies on a 

database of baseline incidence rates. Rather than absolute number of incidences, 

epidemiological studies estimate the relationship between changes in air quality and the 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-8

 

relative risk of adverse health endpoints. This relative risk is applied to the baseline 

incidence rate to determine the number of adverse cases avoided. 

Baseline incidence rates are available within the BenMAP database. These rates 

are derived from a variety of sources including published estimates and Center of Disease 

Control (CDC) data. Depending on the health endpoint, incidence rates can be 

nationwide or region specific. In most cases, age specific incidence rates are available 

and are applied to the age specific population estimates within each grid cell. For tables 

and description of incidence rates used within BenMAP, refer to Abt (2005). 

2.8. Concentration-Response Functions and Valuation Methods 

In the following sections, we describe the studies used to estimate health risks 

associated with exposures to ozone and PM2.5. We also describe the methodologies 

applied to monetize the benefits of reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity 

endpoints. 

Health and economic benefits presented here are limited to those available in 

BenMAP. Certain benefits are not quantified within the model, including non-asthma 

related ER visits, chronic respiratory damage, increased need for prescription medication, 

and adverse effects on pulmonary function. Some quantified benefits only monetize ER 

visits and cost of hospital admissions which may not take into account additional health 

costs incurred after initial treatment. Furthermore, we only quantify the human health 

benefits of the programs under consideration. Additional non-health benefits such as 

improved visibility and decreased crop damage would add to the overall benefits of the 

programs (EPA 2005). Due to these factors, many of the benefits described in this 

analysis may in fact underestimate the true benefit of the programs. 

2.8.1. Ozone Concentration-Response Functions 

Except for mortality, the choice of studies included in determining the ozonerelated impacts of the control measures within CAIR+ was based on those used in EPA’s 

impact analysis of the Clean Air Interstate Rule. We followed EPA’s methodology for 

study choices and pooling methods. EPA’s CAIR analysis did not include estimates of 

ozone related mortality so we chose to use C-R functions from fives studies with 

published nation-wide estimates of mortality risks from ozone exposure. The following 

sections describe the studies and C-R functions used by BenMAP to calculate the 

incidence changes associated with changes in ozone concentrations while a summary of 

the studies used can be found in. A more detailed description is available in the 

Technical Appendices of the BenMAP User Manual developed by Abt Associates 

(available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/benmodels.html). 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-9

 

Table 2-1. Summary of studies used in ozone benefits assessment. 

Health Endpoint Metric Study Study Location Study Population

24 Hour Mean Bell et al. 2004 95 US Cities All Ages

1 Hour Max Ito et al. 2005 7 US Cities All Ages

24 Hour Mean Huang et al. 2005 19 US Cities All Ages

1 Hour Max Levy et al. 2005 US All Ages

24 Hour Mean Bell et al. 2005 US All Ages

24 Hour Mean

Schwartz 1995 (all 

respiratory) New Haven, CT

24 Hour Mean

Schwartz 1995 (all 

respiratory) Tacoma, Wa

24 Hour Mean

Schwartz 1994a 

(pneumonia) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean

Schwartz 1994b 

(pneumonia) Minneapolis, MN

24 Hour Mean

Moolgavkar et al 

1997 (pneumonia) Minneapolis, MN

24 Hour Mean

Schwartz 1994b 

(COPD) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean

Moolgavkar et al 

1997 (COPD) Minneapolis, MN

1 Hour Max Bernett et al. 2001 Toronto, CN <2 Years

5 Hour Mean Weisel et al. 1995 New Jersey

5 Hour Mean Cody et al. 1992 New Jersey

1 Hour Max Stieb et al. 1995 New Bruswick, CN

24 Hour Mean Stieb et al. 1996 New Bruswick, CN

8 Hour Mean Gilliland et al. 2001 Southern California

1 Hour Max Chen et al. 2000 Washoe Co, NV

Worker Productivity 24 Hour Mean

Crocker and Horst 

1981 Nationwide Outdoor workers, 18-65

>64 Years, pooled 

estimate

>64 Years, pooled 

estimate

Mortality

Hospital AdmissionsRespiratory

Asthma Related ER Visits All ages, Pooled Estimate

School absence days

6-11 Years, Pooled 

Estimate

Mortality 

To estimate the impact of ozone reductions due to CAIR+ on mortality incidences 

in the region, we chose five multi-city epidemiological studies. We provide mortality 

impacts separately for each study to give a range of mortality estimates from multiple 

independent studies. We chose these five studies due to their recent publication and 

nationwide sample population. 

The C-R function used to estimate the change in mortality incidences associated 

with changes in mortality can be described by the following log-linear equation: 

Equation 2-2.

∆If = (1-(1/e(β*∆Q)))*Ic*P*A 

where ∆If

 is the change in mortality incidence, β is the pollution coefficient, ∆Q is the 

change in ozone concentration, Ic is the current mortality rate, P is the population, and A 

is a scalar to convert annual the mortality rate to a daily mortality rate. 

Each study utilized in this analysis provides a relative risk that is used to develop 

the pollution coefficient (β) and standard error estimates. The following section gives a 

short description of each mortality study used in this analysis. 

Bell et al., 2004, 95 US Cities 

Bell et al. (2004) used the databases developed for the National Morbidity, 

Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) to estimate a national average relative 

rate of mortality associated with ozone exposure in 95 cities, representing about 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-10

 

40 percent of the U.S. population, between 1987 and 2000. The NMMAPS model 

employs a two stage statistical model for estimating the percent increase in mortality 

associated with exposures to ozone. In the first stage, a time-series analysis is performed 

within each community. The results are then combined across all communities in the 

second stage to produce a national average estimate. 

The NMMAPS approach utilizes cause-specific mortality counts obtained from 

the National Center for Health Statistics, pollutant data from US EPA’s Aerometric 

Retrieval Service (AIRS), and meteorological data from the National Climatic Data 

Center on Earth-Info. Time-series analyses of each community controlled for weather, 

seasonality, long-term trends such as influenza epidemics, and PM10. Results from 

individual communities were then pooled to give a nationwide estimate of mortality risk 

to ozone exposure on the same day as well as multiple days after exposure (lags). Results 

were reported for single-lag models, where estimates of increased mortality risk were 

given for exposures on the same day, next day, two days after exposure, and three days 

after exposure (defined as lag 0, lag 1, lag 2, and lag 3, respectively). In addition, 

cumulative exposures were investigated using distributed-lag models that estimated the 

association between mortality risk and cumulative exposure to ozone over the previous 

week. 

Across the 95 cities used in the NMMAPS analysis, Bell et al. (2004) estimated 

that an increase of 10 ppb in the previous week’s ozone concentration was associated 

with a 0.52 percent increase in mortality (95% posterior interval = 0.27%-0.77%). 

Although BenMAP contains C-R functions for seven individual cities derived from Bell 

et al. (2004), we chose to use the 95 city average to characterize mortality reduction from 

this study because it was an estimate of the nationwide risk. 

Bell et al., 2005, US Nationwide Meta-Analysis 

Bell et al. (2005) performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 timeseries studies examining the relationship between ozone and mortality. The results were 

compared to the estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution 

Study (NMMAPS) to provide a means for comparing different methods for determining 

the effect of ozone on mortality. Both effect estimates were used in the analysis of 

OTC’s control measures: using the NMMAPS estimate from Bell et al. (2004), and the 

US meta-analysis estimate from Bell et al. (2005). 

The meta-analysis included 39 time series studies conducted between 1990 and 

2004 that had been peer reviewed, not based on NMMAPS analysis results, and provided 

numerical estimates of the relationship between short-term changes in ozone and 

mortality including information on the uncertainty of the estimate. The meta-analysis 

combined information across locations and estimated the pooled effect using a 2-stage 

Bayesian hierarchical model. The statistical methods are described in detail in Bell et al.

(2005). The results of the meta-analysis showed that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone at 

single day or 2-day averaged of lags 0, 1, or 2 days was associated with an 0.87 percent 

increase in mortality (95% posterior interval = 0.55% to 1.18%). These percent increase 

estimates were converted to a log-relative rate with a standard error, the form used in 

BenMAP’s C-R function. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-11

 

The multi-city meta-analysis showed a larger association between same day ozone 

exposure (lag 0) and mortality as compared to the NMMAPS 95 city study. When a 

comparison across the cities common to both methods with the same lag structure (8 

cities, lag 0), the study found a much lower pooled effect in the NMMAPS analysis. Bell 

et al. (2005) indicated that this pattern was indicative of a possible publication bias in the 

meta-analysis; papers reporting a positive association may be more likely to be submitted 

or accepted for publication. In addition, larger pooled effects were seen in studies that 

reported a single lag (lag 0 or 1) as opposed to those reporting multiple lags, a pattern that 

researchers suggested indicates that the lag with the largest effect was most likely to be 

reported. The study concluded that while the meta-analysis is useful for combining 

multiple studies and examining study differences, it may be biased to overestimate the 

ozone/mortality relationship. 

Ito et al., 2005, 7 US Cities 

Ito et al. (2005) conducted a review and meta-analysis of short term ozone 

mortality studies published between 1990 and 2003 and performed an additional timeseries analysis for seven U.S. cities (Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, 

New York City, Philadelphia, and St. Louis). 

The review and time-series analysis showed a combined estimate of 0.39 percent 

increase in mortality associated with a 10 ppb increase in the 1-hour daily maximum 

ozone. The study reported no significant reduction in the effect estimate when particulate 

matter was included in the estimate. For our analysis, we used the single-pollutant, loglinear C-R function to describe the relationship. 

Huang et al., 2005, 19 US Cities 

Huang et al. (2005) developed a Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag model to 

estimate the association of daily variations of summertime ozone and cardiovascular and 

respiratory mortality counts in 19 cities. The study used data from NMMAPS for 

summers between 1987 and 1994 for the 19 large cities included in the database (Los 

Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, San Diego, Santa 

Ana/Anaheim, Phoenix, Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Jose, Cleveland, San 

Bernardino, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Atlanta, and San Antonio). 

The 19 city effect estimate from Huang et al. (2005) was derived using a two 

stage approach similar to Bell et al. (2004). In the first step, city-specific relative rates of 

cardiovascular and respiratory mortality associated with short-term exposures to ozone 

are estimated using a distributed lag Poisson regression model. The regression model 

includes factors that control for various confounders such as age, yearly trends, day of the 

week, temperature and dew point, and other pollutants. The overall effect is then 

developed by combining information across the 19 cities by assuming the true cityspecific effects are normally distributed. 

Across the 19 cities investigated in this study, it was found that a 10 ppb increase 

in summertime ozone over the previous week is associated with a 1.25 percent increase 

(95% posterior interval = 0.47-2.03) in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. 

Although BenMAP contains separate C-R functions adjusted for co-pollutants (PM10, 

NO2, SO2, and CO), we used the single pollutant function in analysis of OTC’s ozone 

control programs. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-12

 

Levy et al., 2005, US Nationwide 

Levy et al. (2005) gathered results from 28 time-series studies, selecting 48 effect 

estimates to be used in a metaregression analysis of ozone exposure and mortality. Only 

time-series studies with published city-specific, year-round, all-age relative risk and 

variance estimates were used. In addition, the most recent studies were used when 

multiple studies were available from the same author describing the same cities and study 

years. Studies based on the NMMAPS database were removed as these data were being 

reanalyzed by other researchers. 

Based on the metaregression analysis conducted in this study, Levy et al. (2005) 

estimate a 0.21 percent increase (95% confidence interval = 0.16-0.26%) in mortality 

with a 10 μg/m3 increase in the one hour max ozone (0.41% increase in mortality per 10 

ppb increase in the one hour max ozone). 

Hospital Admissions due to Respiratory Disease 

The concentration response functions we used in this BenMAP analysis to relate 

changes in ozone concentration to hospital admissions due to respiratory disease can be 

described by the same log-normal relationship described in Equation 2-2. The baseline 

incidence rate and change in incidence in this case are numbers of hospital admissions 

due to respiratory diseases. 

To estimate the avoided incidences of respiratory hospital admissions, we looked 

at six studies examining a range of respiratory conditions, following the same 

methodology employed by EPA in its CAIR impact analysis. For adults over 65, we used 

effect estimates from five studies. Schwartz (1995) provided effects estimates relating 24 

hour mean exposures to ozone and all respiratory hospital admissions in New Haven, CT 

and Tacoma, WA. These impact functions were pooled together before pooling with 

other studies. Moolgavkar et al. (1997) and Schwartz (1994a) reported effect estimates 

for ozone- and pneumonia-related hospital admissions in Minneapolis while Schwartz 

(1994b) reported effect estimates for the same endpoint in Detroit. The impact functions 

for the Minneapolis studies were first pooled, and then the resulting function was pooled 

with the Detroit impact function. Two studies, Moolgavkar et al. (1997) in Minneapolis 

and Schwartz (1994b) in Detroit, provided effect estimates for Chronic Obstructive 

Pulmonary Disease (COPD) hospital admissions. These two studies were pooled 

together with the resulting impact function added to the pneumonia impact function. This 

result was then reported along with the all respiratory incidence function derived from 

Schwartz (1995) to give the estimate for total respiratory admissions in adults over 65. 

Only one study was available with an effect estimate for respiratory hospital 

admissions in children under 2 and its impact function was calculated separately. Burnett 

et al. (2001) conducted a time series study examining hospital admissions in children 

below 2 years of age in Toronto, Canada between 1980 and 1994. The study found that a 

1-hr maximum ozone concentration of 45 ppb (5-day moving average between May and 

August) was associated with a 35 percent increase (95% confidence interval = 19%-52%) 

in the daily hospitalization rate for respiratory problems. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-13

 

Emergency Room Visits due to Asthma 

Following the methodology applied in EPA’s impact analysis for CAIR, we 

estimated reduced emergency room visits due to asthma related symptoms by pooling 

results from three studies, Stieb et al. (1996), Cody et al. (1992), and Weisel et al.

(1995). The 24-hr and 1-hr max effect estimates from Stieb et al. (1996) were first 

pooled using fixed/random effects pooling. The resulting estimate of incidence change 

was pooled with the incidence change calculated from Cody et al. (1992) and Weisel et 

al. (1995) to give the overall effect estimate. 

Stieb et al. (1996) investigated the relationship between ozone concentration and 

asthma related emergency room visits for all age groups in the summers of 1984 to 1992 

in Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada. After controlling for other pollutants, weather 

variables, and long term trends, the investigators found that a statistically significant, 

non-linear relationship existed between the frequency of asthma related ER visits and 

elevated ozone levels, noting a 33 percent higher frequency of asthma related ER visits 

when the daily 1-hr maximum ozone concentration exceeded 75 ppb. Because the 

authors described a strong quadratic relationship, BenMAP uses this form for the 

concentration response function. Equation 2-3 describes this C-R function derived from 

the quadratic regression model (Abt, 2003): 

Equation 2-3. 

∆Asthma ER Visits= [( ) ( ) O O ] pop

BasePop baseline control

* *

2

,3

2

,3 −

β

where β is the pollution coefficient (different estimate published for 1-hr max and 24-hr 

average ozone concentration), BasePop is the baseline population of St. John, New 

Brunswick published in Stieb et al. (1996), and pop is the all-ages population within the 

grid cell. The estimates based on the 1-hr max ozone and 24-hr average ozone was 

pooled together to develop an all ages estimate that was pooled with the estimates from 

Cody et al. (1992) and Wiesel et al. (1995). 

Cody et al. (1992) and Wiesel et al. (1995) describe the relationship between 

ozone and asthma related ER visits in New Jersey. These studies provide a C-R function 

that follows a linear form relating the increase in asthma-related ER visits to increases in 

5-hr ozone concentrations. BenMAP uses this linear relationship in its calculations of 

change in incidences associated with changes in 5-hr ozone concentrations. The C-R 

function can be described by the following linear relationship: 

Equation 2-4. 

∆Asthma ER Visits = (β/A)* ∆Q*Pop 

where β is the pollution coefficient, A is the New Jersey study population, ∆Q is the 

change in ozone concentration, and Pop is the population within the grid cell where the 

incidence is being calculated. 

 The effect estimates from these two studies are pooled together with the effect 

estimates from Stieb et al. (1996) to give an overall estimate of change in asthma-related 

ER visits. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-14

 

School Loss Days 

BenMAP calculates the benefits of reduced absenteeism in schools from effect 

estimates derived from two studies, Gilliland et al. (2000) and Chen et al. (2000). The 

studies estimate the relationship of elevated ozone to absenteeism in schools due to 

illness resulting from exposure to ozone. The estimates from these two studies were 

pooled together to give an estimate of school loss days avoided with reduced ozone 

exposures. 

Gilliland et al. (2000) investigated the relationship between ozone and other 

pollutants and school absenteeism in a cohort of fourth grade school children in southern 

California. Based on school absence reports and parental interviews to determine the 

cause of absence, the authors reported that an increase in 20 ppb of ozone (8-hr, 10 a.m. 

to 6 p.m. window) was associated with an increase of 62.9 percent of illness-related 

absence rates (95% confidence interval = 18.4-124.1%). The C-R function reflects the 

results of the single pollutant model and can be described by the following log-linear 

relationship: 

Equation 2-5. 

∆Total Absence = (1-(1/e(β*∆Q)))*I*P*A*B 

where β is the pollution coefficient derived from the study, ∆Q is the change in ozone 

concentration, I is the baseline rate of new absences, P is the population within the grid 

cell, A is scalar for the percent of school days in the ozone season, and B is a constant 

describing the population of school children at-risk for a new absence. 

We pooled the change in absence incidence from Gilliland et al. (2000) with the 

estimate from Chen et al. (2000). Chen et al. examined the association between air 

pollution and daily elementary school absenteeism in Washoe County, Nevada. The 

investigators regressed daily absence rates on three pollutants (PM10, CO, and O3) and 

confounders such as meteorological variables and indicators for day of the week. The 

authors found that CO and O3 were statistically significant indicators of absenteeism. 

Chen et al. (2000) published the results of multi-pollutant linear regression model, 

presenting the β pollution coefficient and standard error based on the 1-hr maximum 

ozone from the previous two weeks. BenMAP calculates the change in incidence using 

this β in the following linear C-R function: 

Equation 2-6. 

∆Total Absence = β *C* ∆Q *(I/B)*P*A 

 

where β is the published pollution coefficient based on the 1-hr maximum ozone from the 

previous two weeks, C is a constant to convert β to a proportion, ∆Q is the change in 

ozone concentration, I is the baseline rate of new absences, B is a constant describing the 

study-specific school absence rate, P is the population within the grid cell, and A is scalar 

for the percent of school days in the ozone season. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-15

 

Worker Productivity 

Estimates of increased worker productivity with decreased ozone concentrations 

is based on Crocker and Horst (1981) where the investigators examined the impacts of 

ozone exposure on the productivity of outdoor citrus workers in southern California. The 

study measured worker productivity as the change in income with respect to ozone 

concentration, reporting a 1.4 percent increase in income with a 10 percent reduction in 

24-hr ozone concentration. This estimate is based on the presumption that elevated ozone 

influences the worker’s ability to work and thus decreases their productivity. The C-R 

relationship used by BenMAP can be described by the following linear relationship: 

Equation 2-7. 

∆Productivity = dailyincome P

Q

Q Q

* * *

1

1 − 0 β

where β is the pollution coefficient, Q1 and Q0 are the control and baseline ozone 

concentrations, dailyincome is the median daily income for outdoor workers, and P is the 

population of adults employed as outdoor farm workers. 

2.8.2. PM2.5 Concentration-Response Functions 

We chose health studies for the analysis of PM2.5 control programs based on 

selection criteria described in EPA (2005) and Davidson et al. (2007). Selection criteria 

included whether the study was peer reviewed, study design, study location, study size, 

and characteristics of study samples, among other considerations. We gave preference to 

prospective cohort studies performed in the U.S. with large sample sizes. The study 

choices attempted to cover all age groups when choosing studies to give an accurate 

representation of the entire population (i.e., if a children’s health study was used, a 

similar study characterizing adult exposures was also used). Peer reviewed studies and 

those examining longer periods of time (thus having more data) were preferentially 

chosen to characterize chronic health effects. 

The sections below give descriptions of the selected studies and C-R functions 

used in the BenMAP model. A more detailed description is available in the Technical 

Appendices of the BenMAP User Manual developed by Abt Associates (available at 

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/benmodels.html). Table 2-2 shows a summary of the studies 

chosen for analysis of PM2.5 control options. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-16

 

Table 2-2. Summary of studies used in PM2.5 benefits analysis. 

Health Endpoint Metric Study Study Location Study Population

24 Hour Mean Woodruff et al. 1997 86 Cities Infant (<1 Year)

24 Hour Mean Pope et al. 2002 51 Cities >30 Years

Chronic Bronchitis 24 Hour Mean Abbey et al. 1995

San Francisco, San Diego, 

South Coast Air Basin >27 Years

Acute Myocardial Infarction 

(Non-Fatal) 24 Hour Mean Peters et al. 2001 Boston, MA >18 Years

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar 2003 (COPD) Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean Ito 2003 (COPD) Detroit, MI

Hospital Admissions, Chronic 

Lung Disease (less Asthma) 24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar, 2000 (COPD) Los Angeles, CA 18-64 Years

Hospital Admissions, 

Pneumonia 24 Hour Mean Ito, 2003 Detroit, MI >65 Years.

Hospital Admissions, Asthma 24 Hour Mean Sheppard, 2003 Seattle, WA 0-64 Years

24 Hour Mean Moolgavkar, 2003 Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean

Ito 2003, (ischemic heart 

disease, dysrhythmia, hearth 

failure) Detroit, MI

24 Hour Mean Mookgavkar, 2000 Los Angeles, CA 18-64 Years

Asthma related ER Visits 24 Hour Mean Norris et al. 1999 Seattle, WA <17 Years

Acute Bronchitis 24 Hour Mean Dockery et al. 1996 24 Communities 8-12 Years

Lower Respiratory Symptoms 24 Hour Mean Schwartz and Neas 2000 6 US Cities 7-14 Years

24 Hour Mean Ostro et al. 2001 Los Angeles, CA

24 Hour Mean Vedal et al. 1998 Vancouver, CN

Work Loss Days 24 Hour Mean Ostro, 1987 Nationwide 18-64 Years

Mortality

Asthma Exacerbation, Cough, 

Wheeze, Shortness of Breath

>65 Years. Pooled Estimate

Hospital Admissions, Chronic 

Lung Disease

Hospital Admissions, All 

Cardiovascular (less MI)

6-18 Years, Pooled Estimate

65-99 Years, Pooled Estimate

Mortality 

EPA (2005) reported that the Science Advisory Board Health Effects 

Subcommittee has recommended using the Pope et al. (2002) study as the basis for the 

primary mortality estimate for adults to be used in its benefit analyses. This study is 

based on data collected by the American Cancer Society as part of an ongoing 

prospective cohort mortality study of approximately 1.2 million adults. The researchers 

have used information on mortality in the study cohort and PM2.5 monitored data to 

develop mortality risk estimates by applying a Cox proportional hazards survival model. 

Pope et al. (2002) provides relative risks for all-cause mortality as well as 

cardiopulmonary, lung cancer, and all-other cause mortality. For this analysis, we have 

provided estimates based on the all-cause mortality estimate. This estimate is calculated 

using the log-linear C-R function described in Equation 2-2. 

While Pope et al. (2002) provides an estimate of mortality in the population above 

30 years of age, Woodruff et al. (1997) provides a relationship between particulate matter 

exposure and infant mortality. The investigators evaluated the relationship within a 

cohort of approximately 4 million infants born between 1989 and 1991 and particulate 

matter exposure. The estimate is calculated using the logistic C-R function described 

below: 

Equation 2-8. 

∆Cases of Infant Mortality = (1-(1/((1-I)*e(β*∆Q)+I)))*I*P 

where β is the pollution coefficient, I is the incidence rate, ∆Q is change in PM2.5

concentration, and P is the population 2 years and younger. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-17

 

Chronic Bronchitis 

BenMAP provides an effect estimate for reductions in cases of chronic bronchitis 

from Abbey et al. (1995). The study examined the relationship between PM2.5, PM10, and 

TSP and chronic respiratory symptoms in a population of 1,868 Californian Seventh Day 

Adventists. In the single pollutant models, long-term exposures to elevated ambient 

concentrations of PM2.5 showed a statistically significant association with development of 

symptoms of chronic bronchitis between 1977 and 1987. The C-R response function 

used by BenMAP to estimate the change in chronic bronchitis incidences follows the 

following logistic form: 

Equation 2-9. 

∆Cases of Chronic Bronchitis = (1-(1/((1-I)*e(β*∆Q)+I)))*I*P*(1-Prevalence) 

where β is the pollution coefficient, I is the incidence rate, ∆Q is change in PM2.5

concentration, P is the population 27 years and older without chronic bronchitis, and 

Prevalence is the prevalence of chronic bronchitis in the population. 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Non-Fatal) 

We estimated the association of PM2.5 exposure to non-fatal heart attacks using 

Peters et al. (2001). This is the only currently available U.S. study that provides a 

specific estimate for heart attacks (EPA, 2005). Peters et al. (2001) used a case-crossover 

approach to analyze evidence that exposures to PM2.5 elevated the risk of myocardial 

infarctions (MI). The investigators interviewed 772 patients with MI in the greater 

Boston area from 1995 and 1996 as part of the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction 

Study while collecting hourly concentrations of PM2.5, black carbon, and gaseous air 

pollutants. Using a conditional logistic regression analysis, Peters et al. (2001) estimated 

an odds ratio of 1.69 (95% confidence interval = 1.13-2.34) for an increase of 20 μg/m3

in the 24-hr PM2.5 concentration on the day before the onset. These odds ratios were 

converted to a pollution coefficient and a standard error to be used in the following 

logistic C-R function: 

Equation 2-10. 

∆Cases of Acute MI = (1-(1/((1-I*A)*e(β*∆Q)+I*A)))*I*A*P 

where I is the incidence rate, A is a constant to adjust the incidence rate to number of MI 

cases that survive 28 days (93 percent), β is the pollution coefficient, ∆Q is change in 

PM2.5 concentration, and P is the population above 18 years of age. 

Hospital Admissions, Respiratory 

We estimated total avoided incidences of respiratory hospital admissions by using 

impact functions for several respiratory conditions including chronic obstructive 

pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, and asthma. Two studies were used to estimate 

COPD in populations above 65 years old, Moolgavkar (2003) and Ito (2003). The Ito 

(2003) estimate is based on a study published to reanalyze Lippman (2000) to address 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-18

 

issues with the S-plus default convergence criteria. The original study, performed during 

1985-1990 and 1992-1994, examined the association between particulate matter and 

hospitalizations among adults above 65 years of age. BenMAP estimates the health 

benefits using a log-linear model (Equation 2-2) with a pollutant coefficient derived from 

Ito’s reported relative risk of 1.043 for a 36 μg/m3 increase in 24-hr PM2.5. We pooled 

the estimate from Ito (2003) for populations above 65 years with Moolgavkar (2003). 

Moolgavkar (2000a) first used generalized additive models to analyze daily admissions 

for COPD in Cook County, IL, Los Angeles County, CA, and Maricopa County, AZ 

between 1987 and 1995. The results were then reanalyzed in Moolgavkar (2003) to 

address issues with the S-plus default convergence criteria. The reanalysis provided the 

effect estimate used for COPD in populations above 65 years of age while the original 

analysis (Moolgavkar, 2000a) provided the effect estimate for populations between 18 

and 65. We therefore provided a separate estimate for COPD in populations between 18 

and 65 from the Los Angeles effect estimate derived from Moolgavkar (2000a) and an 

estimate for adults above 65 pooled from Ito (2003) and Moolgavar (2003). 

We estimated the avoided cases of hospital admissions due to pneumonia in 

populations above 65 using estimates published in Ito (2003). The estimates are based on 

the same Detroit, MI study population used to develop the COPD estimates. Ito (2003) 

applied a Poisson regression model with generalized additive models to develop a risk 

estimate that showed a statistically significant relationship between pneumonia related 

hospital admissions and 24-hr PM2.5. The relative risk of 1.154 for a 36 μg/m3

 increase 

in 24-hr PM2.5 was used to generate a pollutant coefficient to be used in a log-linear C-R 

function (Equation 2-2). 

Sheppard (2003) provides a reanalysis of Sheppard (1999), investigating the 

relationship between air pollution and hospital admissions for asthma in Seattle between 

1987 and 1994. The study, reanalyzed in 2003 for issues involving the S-plus default 

convergence criteria, used a Poisson regression model with control for temperature, 

season, and long term trends. Sheppard (2003) reported a statistically significant 

association between 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations and asthma related hospital 

admissions. The relative risk of 1.04 for an 11.8 μg/m3

 increase in 24-hr PM2.5 was used 

to generate a pollutant coefficient to be used in a log-linear C-R function (Equation 2-2). 

Hospital Admissions, Cardiovascular 

We used effect estimates from three studies to assess the benefits of reduced 

hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness (Moolgavkar, 2000b; Moolgavkar, 

2003; Ito, 2003). In our analysis, we provide separate results for hospital admissions due 

to all cardiovascular illness not including MI (Moolgavkar, 2000b; Moolgavkar, 2003), 

ischemic heart disease (Ito, 2003), dysrythmia (Ito, 2003), and congestive heart failure 

(Ito, 2003). 

Moolgavkar (2000b; 2003) provides effect estimates describing the association of 

ambient PM2.5 and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness. The 2003 paper 

reports the updated results of 2000b after addressing the S-plus default convergence 

criteria issue. In these studies, Moolgavkar used a Poisson regression model with 

generalized additive models to analyze data from three cities – Los Angeles, Chicago, 

and Phoenix. PM2.5 analysis was performed on the population within Los Angeles. For 

populations between 18 and 65, we used the log-linear function based on the effect 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-19

 

estimate from Moolgavkar (2000b) (1.4 percent increase in hospital admissions due to 

cardiovascular illness associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). For populations 

above 65, we used the log-linear function based on the effect estimate from Moolgavkar 

(2003) (1.58 percent increase in hospital admissions due to cardiovascular illness 

associated with a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). Since these estimates describe different 

populations we present the benefits to each separately. 

In addition to providing estimates for hospital admissions due to COPD and 

pneumonia, Ito (2003) reported effect estimates for hospital admissions due to ischemic 

heart disease, congestive heart failure, and dysrythmia. Ito (2003) was a reanalysis of 

Lippmann (2000), a study investigating the association between particulate matter and 

daily mortality and hospitalization among the elderly in Detroit, MI. Table 2-3 below 

illustrates the reported effect estimates for the different cardiovascular endpoints 

examined in the BenMAP analysis. 

Table 2-3. Effect estimates for hospital admissions due to 

cardiovascular illness from Ito (2003). 

Reason for Hospital 

Admission Effect Estimate Form of Effect Estimate

BenMAP C-R 

Function Form 

Dysrythmia 1.046 

Relative risk for 36 μg/m3 

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear 

Ischemic Heart Disease 1.053

Relative risk for 36 μg/m3 

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear 

Congestive Heart Failure 1.17

Relative risk for 36 μg/m3 

increase in 24-hr PM2.5 Log-Linear 

Asthma Related Emergency Room Visits 

We estimated the effects of PM2.5 exposure on incidences of asthma related 

emergency room visits by using the effect estimate from a study by Norris et al. (1999). 

The study examined the association between fine particulate matter and emergency room 

visits for asthma in Seattle, WA among children under 18 years. It found a significant 

association showing a change of 11μg/m3

 in PM2.5 was associated with an increased 

relative rate of asthma emergency room visits of 1.15 (95% confidence interval = 1.08-

1.23). EPA (2005) noted that children tend to have higher rates of hospitalization, thus 

this estimate should capture a large part of the impact of PM2.5 on asthma ER visits in the 

population, but there may still be significant impacts in older populations not represented 

here. We used the effect estimate from Norris et al. (1999) in a log-linear C-R function 

to describe the benefits in the population below 18 years old. 

Work Loss Days 

Work loss days are a measure of days of work lost due to exposures to elevated 

PM2.5 (personal symptoms or caring for a sick relative). We estimated days of work lost 

due to PM2.5 using a log-linear C-R function (Equation 2-2) derived from Ostro (1987), a 

6-year, nationwide study performed between 1976 and 1981. Ostro (1987) utilized a 

national survey to estimate work loss days and restricted activity days and how exposure 

to PM2.5 were correlated to these endpoints. Based on a regression analysis, Ostro (1987) 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-20

 

reported that two-week average PM2.5 exposures were significantly associated with workloss days in a population between 18 and 65. 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms 

To estimate the effect of PM2.5 on lower respiratory symptoms, we used an effect 

estimate derived from Schwartz and Neas (2000). As part of the Harvard Six City Diary 

Study, Schwartz and Neas (2000) examined the association of PM2.5 on lower respiratory 

symptoms in 1,184 school children in grades 2 through 5 in six urban areas in the eastern 

U.S. The investigators defined a day indicating an occurrence of a lower respiratory 

symptom as any day with a report of at least two of cough, phlegm from the chest, pain in 

the chest, or wheezing. The study found a statistically significant association between 

lower respiratory symptoms in the cohort of children and PM2.5. The BenMAP model 

uses a pollution coefficient and standard error derived from the reported odds ratio in a 

logistic C-R function (Equation 2-10) applied to the population between ages 7 and 14. 

Asthma Exacerbation 

We estimated the effects of PM2.5 exposure on a variety of acute effects in 

asthmatic children between 6 and 18 years of age. We developed estimates of reductions 

in symptoms of shortness of breath and wheezing from Ostro et al. (2001) and an 

estimate of reduction in cough symptoms based on a pooled estimate from Ostro et al.

(2001) and Vedal et al. (1998). 

Ostro et al. (2001) gathered daily data on respiratory symptoms among a group of 

138 African-American children between the ages of 8 and 13 who had physician 

diagnosed asthma. Using a logistical regression model, the authors developed odds ratios 

to describe the relationship between elevated particulate matter, ozone, and NO2 and 

three asthma symptoms, cough, wheeze, and shortness of breath. Similarly, Vedal et al.

(1998) used a logistical regression model to examine the relationship between particulate 

matter and cough symptoms among asthmatic children between the ages of 6 and 13 

years in Vancouver, BC. We described the effect estimates for wheeze and shortness of 

breath from Ostro et al. (2001) and the effect estimate for cough from a pooled estimate 

of Ostro et al. (2001) and Vedal et al. (1998). Table 2-4 below shows the published 

effect estimates used by BenMAP. 

Table 2-4. Effect estimates used by BenMAP to estimate 

benefits from asthma exacerbation. 

Asthma Symptom 

Effect 

Estimate Form of Effect Estimate 

BenMAP C-R 

Function Form

Shortness of Breath, Ostro et 

al. (2001) 1.10 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic 

Wheeze, Ostro et al. (2001) 1.08 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic 

Cough, Ostro et al. (2001) 1.10 Odds Ratio, 12-hr PM2.5 Logistic 

Cough, Vedal et al. (1998) 1.07 Odds Ratio, 24-hr PM2.5 Logistic 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-21

 

Acute Bronchitis 

We estimated benefits from reductions in cases of acute bronchitis from estimates 

developed by Dockery et al. (1996). The study investigated the health effects of 

exposures to acidic air pollution in 13,369 white children between the ages of 8 and 12 

years old in 24 communities between 1988 and 1991. The study developed estimates of 

pollutant exposures on cases of bronchitis, asthma, wheeze, cough, and phlegm. Cases of 

bronchitis were defined as a chest illness diagnosed as bronchitis occurring within the 

previous 12 months. Although this does not differentiate between temporary, chronic, or 

acute bronchitis, BenMAP assumes this estimate describes cases of acute bronchitis (Abt, 

2005). BenMAP uses a logistic C-R function based on an odds ratio of 1.50 (95% 

CI=0.91-2.47) associated with being in the most polluted city versus the least polluted 

city. 

2.8.3. Economic Value for Health Benefits 

Concentration-response functions derived from epidemiologic studies provide 

estimates of the number of incidences avoided of a particular adverse health effect 

attributed to a reduction in air pollution. An estimate of the value of this reduced risk can 

be described as either a willingness to pay (WTP) or cost of illness (COI) or a 

combination of the two. The WTP describes the medical cost of a certain health endpoint 

along with value associated with avoiding the pain and suffering resulting from the 

illness. In many cases, WTP estimates are not available, and the value of a health benefit 

is described by the COI, or the cost of treating an illness combined with the value of lost 

productivity. The COI estimates generally underestimate the true health benefit because 

they do not include the value of avoided pain and suffering from the health the effect 

(EPA 2005). 

In the following sections, we offer a short description of the valuation estimates 

used in this analysis for various health endpoints. For a more thorough discussion refer 

to Abt (2005), EPA (2005), and EPA (2007). A summary of the unit values used in this 

analysis can be found in Table 2-5. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-22

 

Table 2-5. Unit values for health incidences used in benefits analysis (Abt, 2005). 

Endpoint Group Endpoint

Unit Value of Avoided 

Incidence (2000$)

Mortality Mortality, All Ages $6,324,101 

All Respiratory, >65 Years $18,393 

All Respiratory, <2 Years $7,759 

Pneumonia, >65 years $17,844 

COPD, >65 Years $13,648 

Asthma $7,788 

All Cardiovascular, >65 years $21,191 

Congestive Heart Failure, >65 $15,218 

Dysrythmia $15,237 

Ischemic Heart Disease $25,876 

Emergency Room Visits

Asthma Related Emergency 

Room Visits $261-$312, Pooled Estimate

School Loss days School Loss Day $75 

Work Loss Days Work Loss Days

Based on county specific 

median daily wage

Chronic Bronchitis Chronic Bronchitis, >30 Years $340,482

Acute Bronchitis Acute Bronchitis, Ages 8-12 $374

Acute Myocardial Infarction Acute MI, Age specific estimates $66,000-$143,000*

Lower Respiratory Symptoms

Lower Respiratory Symptoms, 

Ages 7-14 $187

Asthma Exacerbations

Cough, Shortness of Breath, 

Wheeze, Ages 6-18 $74

Hospital Admissions, 

Respiratory

* Value estimate is age specific, range is shown here. 

Mortality Valuation 

To estimate the economic benefit associated with reduced mortality risk, we used 

the “value of statistical lives” saved (VSL) approach available in BenMAP. The VSL 

estimate is based on 26 value of life studies, with a mean estimate of 6.3 million dollars 

(2000$) per avoided incidence of mortality. Of the 26 value of life studies, some gather 

WTP estimates from study subjects while others are wage-risk studies that derive WTP 

estimates from information about the additional compensation demanded for riskier jobs. 

The VSL value used here does not distinguish among people based on age or quality of 

life, thus applied equally to all premature deaths.

Hospital Admissions Valuation 

To estimate the economic benefits associated with reduced hospital admissions 

due to a variety of health endpoints, we used the cost of illness estimates available in 

BenMAP (cost of medical treatment plus estimate of wages lost). Because estimates of 

WTP were unavailable, these estimates tend to be biased downward as they do not 

include the value of avoiding pain and suffering. 

The COI estimates available are specific to the individual health endpoint as 

classified by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). The estimates are 

calculated as the year 2000$ sum of hospital charges and cost of time spent in the 

hospital, estimated as the value of lost daily wages (based on the county-specific median 

wage). 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-23

 

Emergency Room Visits due to Asthma Valuation 

We estimated the value of reduced asthma related ER visits by pooling the two 

COI estimates available in BenMAP (Smith et al., 1997; Stanford et al., 1999). Smith et 

al. (1997) estimated the average cost per emergency room visit for asthma at $312 while 

Stanford et al. (1999) estimated the cost at $261. We pooled these estimates to present 

the COI-based value of avoided incidences of ER visits due to asthma. 

Worker Productivity Valuation 

Crocker and Horst (1981) estimated the value of increased worker productivity 

with decreased ozone concentrations for outdoor citrus workers in southern California. 

Both incidences and value of the benefit are described as loss of income due to reduced 

worker productivity. 

 School Loss Days Valuation 

BenMAP offers a single estimate for the value of school loss days. The estimate 

is based on the probability that if a child stays home from school, a parent will have to 

stay home from work to take care of the child. The value is based on the value of the 

parent’s lost productivity. This was done by first estimating the number of single, 

married, and “other” (i.e., widowed, divorced, or separated) women with children in the 

workforce. Then, based on the median wage for women above 25 years old, the value of 

a missed day of work is estimated. This value is then used as the value of a school loss 

day. 

This method for valuing school loss days likely underestimates the true value as 

the WTP is not included in the estimate and only school absences resulting in a missed 

day of work for the parent is quantified. Abt (2005) considers this valuation estimate an 

“interim” value until an alternative method for the valuation of this health endpoint is 

developed. In addition, BenMAP calculates school absences based on the assumption 

that children are in school during all of May, two weeks in June, one week in August, and 

all of September. The estimated health benefits do not account for absences during 

summer school sessions. 

Chronic Bronchitis Valuation 

Following the methodology employed by EPA 2005, we estimate the value of 

reduced incidences of chronic bronchitis using the WTP estimate based on Viscusi et al.

(1991). Because Viscusi et al. (1991) describes the WTP for severe cases of chronic 

bronchitis, BenMAP uses an adjusted estimate to account for the likelihood that an 

average case of pollution-related chronic bronchitis is not severe. Details on the 

adjustment procedure can be found in Abt (2005). 

Acute Bronchitis Valuation 

BenMAP estimates the value of reduced incidences of acute bronchitis in children 

based on WTP data on bronchitis related symptoms. Abt (2005) notes that WTP 

estimates have not been developed for cases of acute bronchitis and need to be 

extrapolated from data on symptoms related to the condition. Additionally, WTP data on 

symptoms associated with acute bronchitis are available only in adults. Therefore, the 

estimate within BenMAP is based on an adjusted value previously used in EPA’s benefit 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 2-24

 

analyses. The unit value has been adjusted to account for the duration of events of acute 

bronchitis and data showing that parents are willing to pay about twice as much to avoid 

sickness in their children as in themselves (Dicky et al., 2002). We based the acute 

bronchitis valuation estimate on the Dicky et al. (2002) estimate of the cost of a case of 

acute bronchitis with 28 symptom days. Details on the unit values and adjustment 

methods can be found in Abt (2005). 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Non-Fatal) Valuation 

BenMAP contains several age-specific COI estimates that can be used to assign a 

value to an avoided incidence of myocardial infarction. In this analysis, we applied a 

methodology similar to that used in EPA’s CAIR Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 

2005). We used a simple average of the cost estimates available from Russel et al. 

(1998) and Wittels et al. (1990). These studies estimate the expected total medical cost 

of a myocardial infarction over five years, offer separate estimates for different age 

categories, and use a 3 percent discount rate in the value calculation. 

Work Loss Days Valuation 

The value of a lost day of work is calculated based on the county-specific median 

daily wages. The total value is simply the product of work days missed and the median 

daily wage within the county. 

Asthma Exacerbation Valuation 

Of the several valuation units available, we used an estimate based on a study 

performed by Dicky et al. (2002). BenMAP relies on this study’s WTP estimate for an 

avoided incidence of childhood asthma. The estimate is doubled based on evidence from 

Dicky et al. (2002) that parents are willing to pay about twice as much to avoid 

symptoms and illness in their children as in themselves.
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-1

 

3. BENEFITS OF CAIR-PLUS CONTROL SCENARIO 

3.1. Benefits from Reductions in Ozone 

We utilized CALGRID model output and 2002 monitoring data to provide 

estimates of ozone concentrations in 2018 under a BOTW control scenario and a CAIR+ 

control scenario. We quantified the benefits based on the difference of these two control 

scenarios to determine what health benefits can be attributed to implementation of the 

CAIR+ program. 

The majority of the ozone health impact studies are based on changes in the 1-hr 

maximum ozone concentration and the 24-hr mean ozone concentration. BenMAP uses 

the change in these metrics to calculate the change in risk of experiencing an adverse 

health endpoint, and in turn the reduced number of incidences. Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2 

show the average change in 1-hr max and 24-hr mean ozone concentrations during the 

2018 ozone season between the BOTW scenario and the CAIR+ scenario. 

Figure 3-1. Average change in 1-hr maximum ozone concentration due to CAIR+ 

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1st-Sept. 30th), 

ppb (positive numbers indicates an ozone decrease) 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-2

 

Figure 3-2. Average change in 24-hr mean ozone concentration due to CAIR+ 

measures during 2018 ozone season (May 1st-Sept. 30th), 

ppb (positive numbers indicate an ozone decrease) 

Figure 3-1and Figure 3-2 indicate that while the largest decreases in ozone levels 

due to CAIR+ are occurring in the south/southeast region, the OTR states still see 

decreases in average ozone concentrations. Within certain metropolitan areas, such as 

Boston and Philadelphia, we see increases in average ozone concentrations. We 

investigated this by looking at the diurnal profiles for the CAIR+ and BOTW scenarios 

within the grid cells surrounding the cities where average increases were found. In these 

grid cells, we saw slight to moderately higher hourly levels in the CAIR+ case during the 

nighttime hours while hourly concentrations during the day time were very similar in the 

two cases. Nighttime levels were between 5 and 20 ppb depending on the grid cell while 

differences between the two cases at night were generally between 5 and 10 ppb. The 

wide availability of NOx in urban environments rapidly depletes ozone concentrations 

after sunset when ozone production is no longer taking place, an effect known as NOx 

scavenging. We conclude that the CALGRID and BenMAP results reflect a decrease 

in nighttime NOx scavenging which allow ozone concentrations to return closer to 

natural background levels (~30ppb) than what is currently observed during overnight 

hours. 

Based on the reduced ozone concentrations shown in Figures 3-1 and 3-2, we 

estimated the avoided incidences and value of the avoided incidences of mortality and 

several morbidity endpoints. Table 3-1 displays the mean of the estimated value of 

reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity. We present mortality as a range of 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-3

 

estimates based on five studies examining the relationship between elevated ozone 

concentrations and mortality. More detailed estimates of avoided incidences along with 

study specific mortality estimates and confidence intervals of the estimates can be found 

in Appendix B. 

Table 3-1. Summary of avoided incidences attributed to reduced 

ozone due to CAIR+ in OTR states. 

State ER Visits, Asthma

Hospital Admissions, All 

Respiratory Endpoints, 

>64 Years and <2 Years School Loss Days

Loss of Income Due 

to Decreased Worker 

Productivity

Mortality (Range of Five 

Studies) 

CT 2.0 19.4 3350 52694 1.3 - 2.9

DE 0.3 2.1 642 14732 0.1 - 0.6

DC 1.1 11.8 1438 11115 0.9 - 2

ME 0.5 6.1 865 102753 0.5 - 1.1

MD 9.5 90.0 14531 255691 5.8 - 13.1

MA 0.6 -2.0 1625 -44271 -1.3 - 1.8

NH 0.5 4.2 893 22557 0.3 - 0.8

NJ 3.5 22.7 6221 45732 1 - 6

NY 11.9 107.7 19439 356131 7.2 - 18

PA 6.2 44.3 10681 311259 2.3 - 13.4

RI 0.4 1.5 712 2558 0 - 0.8

VT 0.2 2.5 326 31347 0.2 - 0.4

VA 10.5 96.8 16470 544941 5.7 - 15.5

OTR Total 47.4 407.2 77191 1707240 24.4 - 76

Table 3-2 shows that reductions in ozone due to CAIR+ control strategies could 

result in 24 to 76 reduced incidences of premature mortality over all OTR states. Table 

3-2 shows that these reductions result in the majority of the value of the program 

predicted by BenMAP. Appendix B displays a more detailed state-by-state estimate of 

the value of reduced incidences in OTR states. 

Table 3-2. Summary of the value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced 

ozone due to CAIR+ in OTR states. 

State

Total Value of Avoided Respiratory 

Endpoints- Hospital Admissions >64 Years 

and <2 Years, Asthma ER Visits, School 

Loss Days, Decreased Worker Productivity 

(Millions of 2000$)

Mortality- Range of 

Five Studies (Millions 

of 2000$)

CT 0.59 8 - 18.52

DE 0.09 0.35 - 3.91

DC 0.30 5.64 - 12.9

ME 0.26 2.9 - 6.92

MD 2.64 36.28 - 82.57

MA 0.00 -8.23 - 11.46

NH 0.15 1.58 - 5.27

NJ 0.79 6.06 - 37.57

NY 3.40 45.62 - 113.91

PA 1.70 14.22 - 84.45

RI 0.07 0.04 - 4.76

VT 0.09 1.18 - 2.65

VA 3.13 35.66 - 97.78

OTR Total 13.20 153.86 - 479.55
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-4

 

Table 3-2 shows that a CAIR+ program could result in an estimated 167 to 493 

million dollars in saved health costs due to avoided morbidity and mortality in 2018. 

Over 90 percent of this estimate is based on the benefit calculated from reduced 

incidences of premature mortality. Appendix B displays the estimates of incidence and 

value of each morbidity endpoint and mortality study used in this analysis as well as 

confidence intervals calculated within BenMAP. 

Figure 3-2 indicates that the majority of the CAIR+ induced ozone reductions 

tend to occur in the South and Southeast region. Based on our analysis, we estimate an 

additional 43 million dollars in benefit from reduced incidences of respiratory endpoints 

and 520 million to 1.4 billion dollars in benefit from reduced incidences in mortality in 

the states outside of the OTR. Overall, CAIR+ results in an additional benefit of 560 

million to 1.4 billion dollars of benefit in the states outside of the OTR (within the 

modeled domain) due to reductions in ozone. 

3.2. Benefits from Reductions in PM2.5

We utilized the CALGRID model output and 2002 monitoring data to estimate 

PM2.5 concentrations in 2018 under a BOTW control scenario and a CAIR+ control 

scenario. Much like the method used to develop air quality grids for ozone, we used the 

ratio of the 2002 CALGRID modeling data to each of the future year scenarios to adjust 

2002 monitoring data. The future year air quality grids contained information on the 24-

hr average PM2.5 concentrations for each of the future year scenarios over the entire year. 

The change in 24-hr PM2.5 is the only metric used to calculate avoided health endpoints 

due to reduced exposures to PM2.5. 

Figure 3-3 shows that while the majority of the PM2.5 reductions used in the 

calculation of health benefits are expected to occur in the southern states, significant 

reductions also occur within the OTR. Within the OTR, the largest PM2.5 reductions due 

to CAIR+ occur in the southern part of the region while the northern states see a smaller 

benefit from the program. The CALGRID modeling predicts slight increases in PM2.5

along the eastern coast of Massachusetts and in Rhode Island. A more detailed 

examination of this phenomenon revealed that the two modeled scenarios were developed 

from IPM model runs that had different (and inconsistent) reference assumptions (e.g. the 

price of natural gas). The result is that a significant increase in coal-fired power 

generation in the Northeast was modeled in the CAIR+ scenario that was not a result of 

the CAIR+ program itself (these simulated plants are in the IPM CAIR scenario as well 

as the CAIR+ scenario that used the same assumptions). However, when we compare 

this scenario to the BOTW scenario that used different assumptions (resulting in little or 

no new coal generation in the region) we see project increased PM2.5 due to the input 

assumptions not related to the CAIR+ program. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-5

 

Figure 3-3. Average change in 24-hr mean PM2.5 concentration due to 

CAIR+ measures during 2018 (Jan. 1st-Dec. 31st), 

μg/m3

 (positive numbers indicate a decrease) 

While this calls into question the specific benefits assessment for any given 

location, we are confident that the overall regional estimates of benefits are still valid 

given the broad-based reductions required under the CAIR+ program. This analysis 

would need to be repeated with air quality scenarios based on consistent IPM 

assumptions in order to develop location-specific estimates of health benefits for the 

CAIR+ program. 

We applied the changes in PM2.5 concentrations predicted by CALGRID from 

Figure 3-3 to estimate the magnitude and value of avoided adverse health endpoints 

within the domain. Table 3-3 displays the total benefit from all OTR states for all the 

endpoints calculated within this study. State-specific estimates and confidence intervals 

of the estimates are in Appendix B. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-6

 

Table 3-3. Summary of the number and value of avoided incidences 

attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to CAIR+ in OTR states. 

Incidences (Mean) Value (mean, Millions of 2000$)

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 228 1433.66

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.38 2.42

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 319 0.12

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 404 26.65

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic 

children, 6 to 18) 2446 0.38

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic 

children, 6 to 18) 4282 0.67

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath 

(asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2708 0.42

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 145 48.80

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years

and younger) 166 0.05

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 

years and older) 50 0.76

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and 

older) 14 0.22

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 

years and older) 25 0.66

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 26 0.20

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including 

Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 87 1.86

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including 

Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 45 1.02

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 

years and older) 22 0.29

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 

years) 11 0.12

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and 

above) 65 1.17

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 26716 3.66

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3793 0.71

OTR Totals

Table 3-4 indicates that much like ozone, the majority of the economic benefits of 

CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5 are due to reduced mortality in the region. It should be noted, 

however, that hundreds of emergency room visits and hospital admissions would also be 

avoided each year. Table 3-4 displays the total monetary benefit of CAIR+ reductions in 

PM2.5 in the OTR for the three categories of benefits – cardiovascular endpoints, 

respiratory endpoints, and mortality. 

Table 3-4. Total estimated value of avoided incidences 

attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to CAIR+ in OTR states. 

Endpoint OTR Total Value (Millions of 2000$)

Mortality 1436.08

Cardiovascular Symptoms 31.17

Respiratory Symptoms 56.60
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 3-7

 

In states outside the OTR, we see significant additional benefits attributed to 

CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5. Table 3-5 below displays the monetized benefit to states 

outside the OTR (but within the modeling domain) attributed to reductions in PM2.5. 

Overall we estimate that CAIR+ could result in 4.4 billion dollars in benefits to the states 

outside of the OTR. 

Table 3-5. Total estimated value of avoided incidences 

attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to CAIR+ in states outside of OTR. 

Endpoint

Total Value from States Outside OTR 

(Millions of 2000$)

Mortality 4185.95

Cardiovascular Symptoms 74.34

Respiratory Symptoms 165.57

3.3. CAIR+ Benefits Discussion 

Based on our analysis of modeled concentrations in 2018 using BenMAP, we 

estimated benefits from reductions of ozone and PM2.5 in the OTR due to CAIR+ control 

measures. We estimated a total value in 2018 of 1.52 billion dollars from reductions in 

PM2.5 exposure and a total value in the five month ozone season in 2018 of 167 to 492 

million dollars from reductions in ozone exposure. Overall, the we estimate that the 

CAIR+ program could result in 1.7 to 2.0 billion dollars in 2018 due to reduced adverse 

health endpoints from exposures to PM2.5 and ozone in the OTR. In states outside the 

OTR, we estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 billion dollars due to ozone reductions 

and 4.4 billion dollars due to PM2.5 reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars. 

Across the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we estimated a total benefit to the 

program of 6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars. 

While the majority of the reductions in PM2.5 and ozone occur in the south and 

southeast regions, a large benefit is also accrued along the East Coast. States showing the 

largest benefit to these programs are along the southern portion of the OTR including 

Maryland, Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. Fewer benefits are seen in the northern 

states such as Maine and New Hampshire as projections indicate that compliance with 

CAIR+ tends to reduce power plant emissions to a greater extent in the southern states. 

In addition, the use of inconsistent input assumptions to the two IPM runs used to create 

the different air quality scenarios result in estimated increases of PM2.5 within some grid 

cells. Some small increases in ozone in urban locations can be attributed to reduced 

nighttime NOx scavenging. However, such increases were small and limited in spatial 

scale while the overall program results in large net benefits to the broader region. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-1

 

4. SO2 CONTROL MEASURES IN MANE-VU 

We analyzed a second set of control scenarios with respect to potential health 

benefits based on four control strategies aimed at reducing regional haze at Class I areas 

in the MANE-VU region. These programs include two separate but linked low-sulfur 

content fuel initiatives (the S1 and S2 strategies), the BART provisions of the Regional 

Haze Rule, and controls on EGUs at the 167 stacks most likely to affect MANE-VU 

Class I areas (167 EGU strategy). This chapter reviews the control strategies in more 

detail, describes the potential emissions reductions, and describes the potential health 

benefits of each strategy and the combination. 

4.1. Reduced sulfur fuel content (S1 and S2) 

The MANE-VU states have agreed through consultations to pursue a low sulfur 

fuel strategy within the region. This phased strategy would be implemented in two steps; 

however, both components of the strategy are to be fully implemented by 2018. We have 

analyzed both steps of the program as separate strategies, but it is the combined benefit of 

implementing the program that is relevant to the question of program benefits. 

The S1 strategy requires the lowering of fuel-sulfur content in distillate (#2 oil) 

from current levels that range between 2,000 and 2,300 ppm down to 500 ppm by weight. 

It also restricts the sale of heavier blends of residual oil (#4 fuel oil and #6 bunker fuels) 

that have sulfur content greater than 0.25 percent sulfur and 0.5 percent sulfur by weight, 

respectively. The S2 strategy further reduces the fuel-sulfur content of the distillate 

fraction to 15 ppm sulfur by weight. The residual oil is maintained at the same S1 level 

for this strategy. 

The S1 strategy and S2 strategy are to be implemented in sequence with slightly 

different timing for “inner zone” states2

 and the remainder of MANE-VU. All states, 

however, have agreed to pursue reductions that would take place no later than 2018. 

Thus for the purposes of this analysis, we have examined the benefits of the S1 and S2 

strategies separately below. 

Based on the fuel sulfur limits within the S1 strategy, we estimated a decrease of 

140,000 tons of SO2 emitted from distillate combustion and 40,000 tons of SO2 from 

residual combustion in MANE-VU. Figure 4-1 displays the resulting average change in 

24-hr average PM2.5 between the baseline case (OTB/OTW) and the control case where 

the S1 fuel strategy has been implemented. 

We used the concentration changes in Figure 4-1 above to derive health benefits 

and their associated valuation using BenMAP. Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 display the total 

number of reduced incidences and value of reduced incidences within MANE-VU, 

VISTAS, and MWRPO. Because the S1 fuel sulfur program only affects sources within 

MANE-VU, that region sees the largest PM2.5 reduction and the greatest health benefits. 

 

2

 The inner zone includes New Jersey, Delaware, New York City, and potentially portions of eastern 

Pennsylvania. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-2

 

Figure 4-1. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to S1 emission reductions (μg/m3) 

Table 4-1. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1 fuel sulfur control. 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 513 32.1 8.7

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.77 0.07 0.02

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 754 50.9 12.9

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 145 9.6 2.49

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 812 78.7 15.9

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1421 137.7 27.74

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 899 87.1 17.55

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 337.5 22.1 5.61

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 44.8 6.84 1.64

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 16.1 1.38 0.34

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 5 0.33 0.08

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 8.6 0.65 0.15

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 10 0.59 0.13

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial 

Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 29.5 2.25 0.52

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial 

Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 14.7 1.3 0.22

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 7 0.61 0.14

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 3.7 0.32 0.07

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 20.5 1.86 0.48

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 8795 849 167

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1245 122 25
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-3

 

Table 4-2. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to S1 fuel sulfur control (millions of 2000$). 

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 3230 202 55

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 4.86 0.47 0.12

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.28 0.02 0.005

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 9.55 0.63 0.16

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.13 0.01 0.002

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.22 0.02 0.004

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 0.14 0.01 0.003

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 114 7 2

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.01 0 0

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.25 0.02 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.08 0.01 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.22 0.02 0.004

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.08 0 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial 

Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.63 0.05 0.011

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial 

Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.34 0.03 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 0.01 0.002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.04 0 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.37 0.03 0.009

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1.24 0.1 0.021

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.23 0.02 0.005

Table 4-3 displays the total value of the S1 program in each of the three RPOs. 

Implementation of this fuel strategy aimed at regional haze improvement could result in 

almost 3.5 billion dollars of benefit to the MANE-VU states. Additionally, this strategy 

could result in 270 million dollars of health benefit to the states within the VISTAS and 

MWRPO states. 

Table 4-3. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to S1 fuel sulfur control (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality 3234 203 55

Cardiovascular Symptoms 10.5 0.71 0.2

Respiratory Symptoms 117 7.7 2

The S2 fuel strategy further reduces the sulfur content of distillate from 500 ppm 

to 15 ppm while keeping the sulfur limits on residual oils to 0.25 percent and 0.5 percent 

for No. 4 and No. 6 oils, respectively. By lowering the distillate fuel sulfur limit from 

500 ppm to 15 ppm we estimate an additional reduction of 27,000 tons of SO2 emissions 

in MANE-VU from distillate combustion in 2018. Figure 4-2 displays the average 

change in 24-hr PM2.5 calculated from CMAQ modeled concentrations between the S1 

scenario and the S2 scenario. The change reflects the predicted change in PM2.5 due 

solely to the change from 500 ppm to 15 ppm distillate. Due to a high baseline fuel 

sulfur level, the incremental change in PM2.5 concentration is much smaller between 500 

ppm and 15 ppm than the baseline to 500 ppm levels observed in the S1 scenario. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-4

 

Figure 4-2. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to 

S2 emission reductions, relative to S1 (μg/m3

) 

Table 4-4 and Table 4-5 display the additional health benefits that can be realized 

from the S2 portion of the fuel strategy. Table 4-6 indicates that almost 450 million 

dollars in health benefits could be accrued with an S2 fuel sulfur strategy in MANE-VU. 

An additional 28 million dollars in benefits could be found in the VISTAS and MWRPO 

states. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-5

 

Table 4-4. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit. 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 68 3.5 0.8

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.11 0.01 0.002

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 103.9 5.6 1.2

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 18.99 1.06 0.22

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 107 8.7 1.4

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 188 15.2 2.4

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 

18) 119 9.6 1.5

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 46.1 2.5 0.54

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 5.91 0.76 0.14

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 2.09 0.153 0.03

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.65 0.036 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1.12 0.072 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 1.33 0.065 0.012

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 3.83 0.249 0.04

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 1.92 0.144 0.02

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.91 0.067 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.49 0.035 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 2.66 0.21 0.042

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1175 94 14

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 165 13 2

Table 4-5. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit (millions of 2000$). 

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 430 20 5.3

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.69 0.05 0.01

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.04 0.002 0.0005

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1.25 0.07 0.01

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.02 0.001 0.0002

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.03 0.002 0.0004

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 

18) 0.02 0.002 0.0002

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 15.55 0.83 0.18

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.002 0 0

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 0.002 0.0005

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 0.001 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 0.002 0.0003

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.01 0.001 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 0.08 0.005 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.04 0.003 0.0004

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 0.001 0.0002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 0 0.0001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.05 0.004 0.001

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.17 0.011 0.002

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.03 0.003 0.0004
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-6

 

Table 4-6. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to 500 ppm sulfur limit (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality 431 22 5

Cardiovascular Symptoms 1.38 0.08 0.02

Respiratory Symptoms 16 0.85 0.19

To determine the full benefit of the fuel strategies being considered relative to the 

OTB/OTW baseline, we can look at the combined benefit of the S1 (500 ppm distillate 

and 0.25/0.5 percent residual oil) strategy and the S2 (15 ppm distillate) strategy. Table 

4-7 shows the total value of avoided incidences relative to OTB/OTW from a 15 ppm 

fuel sulfur limit program. The CMAQ and BenMAP modeling results suggest that this 

fuel program could result in 3.8 billion dollars in benefits for MANE-VU and an 

additional 300 million dollars in benefits for the VISTAS and MWRPO states. 

Table 4-7. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

15 ppm fuel sulfur control relative to OTB/OTW (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality 3665 225 60

Cardiovascular Symptoms 12 1 0

Respiratory Symptoms 133 9 2

4.2. Best Available Retrofit Program (BART) 

To assess the impacts of the implementation of the BART provisions of the 

Regional Haze Rule, we included estimated reductions anticipated for 14 BART-eligible 

facilities in MANE-VU in the 2018 CMAQ modeling analysis. An initial survey of state 

staff indicated that these 14 units would possibly be controlled under BART alone. 

These states provided potential control technologies and levels of control, which were in 

turn incorporated into the 2018 emission inventory projections. The survey approach can 

be found in NESCAUM (2007b). Figure 4-3 displays the locations of the modeled 

BART sources and estimated SO2 reductions expected in 2018. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-7

 

Figure 4-3. Potential reductions from BART-eligible sources in the 

MANE-VU region (tons) 

We applied the SO2 reductions at these 14 facilities relative to the 2018 

OTB/OTW emissions inventory. Figure 4-4 shows the average change in 24-hr PM2.5

concentrations within the modeling domain used to calculate the health benefits. 

Figure 4-4. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to 

BART emission reductions (μg/m3) 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-8

 

Table 4-8 and Table 4-9 display the avoided incidences and value benefit 

predicted from BenMAP. As expected, the majority of the benefits are found in MANEVU as the emissions reductions occur in these states. Based on our BART analysis, we 

expect 38,000 tons of SO2 to be reduced in MANE-VU at the 14 sources expected to 

control based on BART alone. Table 4-8 and Table 4-10 show that the reductions in SO2

at these 14 sources can result in 200 avoided incidences in mortality and a total monetary 

benefit of 1.8 billion dollars in 2018. 

Comparing across RPOs, we see that reductions at BART sources in the MANEVU region could result in benefits within other RPOs. Reducing 38,000 tons of SO2 at 

five MANE-VU states could give an added benefit of 200 million dollars in VISTAS 

states and 80 million dollars in MWRPO states in 2018. 

Table 4-8. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART. 

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 209 30.4 11.6

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.315 0.068 0.026

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 308 47.5 17.3

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 61.7 9.05 3

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 343.6 73.46 19.2

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 601.4 128.56 33.6

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 380.4 81.33 21.2

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 137.37 20.54 7.49

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 19.18 6.38 1.99

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 6.83 1.3 0.41

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 2.11 0.31 0.1

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 3.65 0.61 0.18

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 4.19 0.55 0.16

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 12.5 2.12 0.62

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 6.29 1.22 0.27

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 2.97 0.58 0.17

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 1.59 0.3 0.09

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 8.7 1.76 0.58

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 3694 788.3 202.5

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 531 114 30
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-9

 

Table 4-9. Value of avoided incidences attributed to 

reduced PM2.5 due to BART (millions of 2000$). 

MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1319 191 73

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1.98 0.431 0.163

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.12 0.018 0.006

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 4.07 0.596 0.19

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.05 0.011 0.003

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.09 0.02 0.005

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 0.06 0.013 0.003

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 46 6.9 2.5

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.005 0.002 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.105 0.02 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 0.005 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.09 0.016 0.005

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.03 0.004 0.001

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 0.27 0.045 0.013

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.14 0.028 0.006

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.04 0.008 0.002

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.02 0.003 0.001

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.16 0.031 0.01

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.52 0.094 0.026

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.099 0.021 0.006

Table 4-10. Total Value of avoided incidences attributed 

to reduced PM2.5 due to BART (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality 1321 192 73

Cardiovascular Symptoms 4.5 0.7 0.2

Respiratory Symptoms 48 7 3

CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggest that approximately 1.8 billion dollars of 

benefits from avoided adverse health outcomes could be realized from BART in MANEVU. Although all the BART sources we modeled were located in MANE-VU, emission 

reductions at these units resulted in an estimated 270 million dollars of health benefit in 

the VISTAS and MWRPO states. 

4.3. 167 EGU Strategy 

The MANE-VU states have recognized that SO2 emissions from power plants are 

the single largest contributing sector to the visibility impairment experienced in northeast 

Class I areas. The SO2 emissions from power plants continue to dominate the inventory. 

Sulfate formed through atmospheric processes from SO2 emissions are responsible for 

over half the mass and approximately 70-80 percent of the extinction on the worst 

visibility days (NESCAUM, 2006a,b). In order to ensure that EGU controls are targeted 

at those EGUs with the greatest impact on visibility in MANE-VU, a modeling analysis 

was conducted to determine which sources those were. A list of 167 EGU stacks was 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-10

 

identified (MANE-VU, 2007) that includes the 100 largest impacts at each MANE-VU 

Class I site during 2002. MANE-VU is currently asking for 90 percent control on all 

units emitting from those stacks by 2018 as part of consultations within MANE-VU and 

with other RPOs. 

The 167 EGU strategy, if implemented, could lead to large reductions in SO2

emissions due to installation of stack control technologies such as SO2 scrubbers. To 

determine the possible health benefits of this EGU control program, we modeled 2018 

emissions for the 167 EGUs in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest at levels equal to 

10 percent of their 2002 emissions. We used CMAQ to model sulfate concentrations in 

2018 after implementation of this control program and converted sulfate concentrations 

to PM2.5 concentrations. Figure 4-5 displays the average change in 24-hr PM2.5 seen 

between the OTB/OTW baseline and the EGU stack control program. 

Figure 4-5. Average change in 24-hr PM2.5 due to 167 EGU emission reductions 

Figure 4-5 shows that significant reductions of PM2.5 are predicted for the 

MANE-VU region. Table 4-12 describes the number and value of avoided incidences 

estimated from BenMAP based on this reduction in PM2.5. Of the four regional haze 

programs discussed, we see the largest benefit attributed to the 167 EGU stack control 

program. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-11

 

Table 4-11. Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 from 167 EGU strategy. 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 994 323 334

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1.52 0.67 0.74

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1424 450 485

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 301 96 51

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1699 732 324

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2976 1282 568

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 1881 810 359

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 641 203.6 213

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 97 63.3 32

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 34.3 14.2 7.1

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 10.5 3.4 1.7

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 18.1 6.73 3.2

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 20.5 5.56 2.8

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 62.3 23.27 11.1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 31.03 12.62 4.9

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 14.87 6.33 3.1

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 7.85 3.14 1.6

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 43.72 19.18 10.1

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 18392 7895 3474

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 2610 1128 490

Table 4-12. Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced 

PM2.5 due to 167 EGU strategy (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 6261 2035 2107

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 9.61 4.23 4.64

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.53 0.17 0.18

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 19.84 6.33 3.36

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.27 0.11 0.05

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.46 0.2 0.09

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 

6 to 18) 0.29 0.13 0.06

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 216.2 68.7 71.93

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.03 0.02 0.01

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.53 0.22 0.11

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.16 0.05 0.03

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.47 0.17 0.08

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.16 0.04 0.02

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 65 years and older) 1.33 0.49 0.24

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction 

(Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.71 0.29 0.11

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2 0.08 0.04

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.08 0.03 0.02

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.79 0.34 0.18

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2.6 0.9 0.41

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.49 0.21 0.09

The CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggests that 6.5 billion dollars in benefit 

could be realized in MANE-VU in 2018 by adopting appropriate controls at 167 EGU 

stacks (Table 4-13). Because this control strategy extends to sources in the VISTAS and 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 4-12

 

MWRPO states, we see significant benefits to populations within those states. Due to 

controls at these sources, we estimate 2.1 billion dollars in benefits for the VISTAS states 

and 2.2 billion dollars in benefits for the MWRPO states. The majority of this estimate 

lies in the number of avoided mortalities as we estimate this program to reduce premature 

mortality by 1,600 cases across the three RPOs. 

Table 4-13. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced 

PM2.5 due to 167 EGU strategy (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint MANE-VU VISTAS MWRPO

Mortality 6271 2040 2112

Cardiovascular Symptoms 22 7 4

Respiratory Symptoms 222 71 73

4.4. Summary of Regional Haze Program Benefits 

While regional haze programs are designed to improve visibility at Class I areas, 

significant health benefits can also occur in MANE-VU with improved air quality. Table 

4-14 displays the mean value of reduced adverse health endpoints in MANE-VU for the 

four haze programs. 

 Table 4-14. Total value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 

regional haze programs in MANE-VU (millions of 2000$). 

Endpoint S1 S2* BART EGU 4-Program Total

Mortality 3234 431 1321 6271 11246

Cardiovascular Symptoms 11 1 4 22 38

Respiratory Symptoms 117 16 48 222 401

* Avoided incidences are relative to S1. 

Of the four programs, we estimate the 167 EGU strategy to have the greatest 

benefits for the region. This program focuses on EGUs that are the largest uncontrolled 

emitters of SO2 and considerable improvement in air quality could result with their 

control. The first phase of a sulfur-in-fuels limitation (S1) leads to almost 3.4 billion 

dollars of health benefit in MANE-VU. Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm 

(S2) could lead to an additional 431 million dollars in benefit, bringing the total benefit 

relative to OTB/OTW to 3.7 billion dollars of benefit. The BART estimate is based on 

controls at 14 units likely to be controlled under BART alone and with no other program 

that would satisfy the BART requirement. CMAQ and BenMAP modeling suggest that 

controls at these units could lead to 1.4 billion dollars of benefit in MANE-VU. 

Looking across all regional haze programs, we estimate a four program total of 

11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. We base this benefits 

estimate on a 15 ppm fuel sulfur control, BART controls on 14 units in MANE-VU, and 

stack controls at 167 EGUs in the East, Southeast, and Midwest. Additionally, 4.9 billion 

dollars of health benefit are estimated for the states within VISTAS and MWRPO in 2018 

due to implementation of these haze control strategies. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-1

 

5. BENEFITS ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED OZONE 

NAAQS 

5.1. Overview and Input Assumptions 

To assess the benefits of alternative ozone standards, NESCAUM estimated the 

magnitude and value of avoided adverse health endpoints that would result in attaining a 

range of proposed ozone primary NAAQS in 2018. The purpose of this benefits analysis 

is to estimate what additional benefits can be accrued by reducing ozone levels to various 

attainment levels beyond levels reached by a suite of actual and hypothetical control 

programs – in this case the “Beyond On The Way” (BOTW) programs and the “Clean 

Air Interstate Rule Plus” (CAIR+) program – that states in the Ozone Transport Region 

(OTR) have considered in planning efforts to attain the current 8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

Future and current year ozone modeling was performed by the New Hampshire 

Department of Environmental Services using the California Photochemical Grid Model 

(CALGRID). The model output reflects expected hourly ozone concentrations in 2018 

after implementing a suite of assumed BOTW control strategies in the OTR and the 

CAIR+ program in the eastern United States. The use of this hypothetical control 

scenario is meant to create a base case in which the modeled region meets or is close to 

meeting the current ozone NAAQS. Use of projected ozone levels in 2018 in a scenario 

attaining the current 8-hour NAAQS (0.08 ppm) avoids attributing to a revised primary 

ozone NAAQS that portion of monetized health benefits that would occur in any event 

from meeting the current NAAQS. The hypothetical measures incorporated in the base 

case, however, are not necessarily the actual measures to be adopted by individual states 

for attaining the present ozone NAAQS. 

Using the CALGRID modeled concentrations (CALGRID modeling domain 

described in Section 2.1) that have included all BOTW measures and CAIR+ as our 

baseline, we estimated the benefits of attaining three alternative 8-hour standards, 60 ppb, 

70 ppb, and 75 ppb (4th highest daily 8-hour max) in the OTR using the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Modeling and 

Analysis Program (BenMAP). BenMAP can currently roll back monitored ozone data to 

user specified standards and calculate the health benefits of the rollback. To take 

advantage of BenMAP’s rollback capabilities, we reformatted the CALGRID model 

output data to a monitor format that the tool would accept. This was done by first 

generating a file that contained modeled values for all the monitors in our domain for the 

period of May 15 through September 15. Each monitor’s hourly modeled values were 

defined as the 2018 CALGRID modeled concentrations for the grid cell in which the 

monitor resides. In addition to monitors that already existed, we supplied modeling data 

for grid cells with more than 25,000 people not containing a monitor. This was done by 

adding a new monitor at the center of the grid cell. 

In our comparisons of 2002 CALGRID modeled data and 2002 monitored data, 

we found that the model generally underestimated monitored ozone concentrations. We 

therefore expect that our approach of using solely modeling data to represent 

concentrations in 2018 will give a conservative estimate of the benefits of attainment 

(i.e., underestimate the monetized health benefits). Furthermore, we do not include 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-2

 

consideration of health benefits from reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that 

may occur as a result of reductions in ozone precursors. 

The 2018 CALGRID modeling data was rolled back to each of the various health 

standards using BenMAP’s quadratic rollback method. The quadratic rollback method is 

based on an algorithm developed by Horst and Duff (1995), where large values are 

reduced proportionally more than small values while just achieving the standard. We set 

a background level of 40 ppb, which specifies the portion of the ozone concentration that 

was not be affected by the rollback. Our assumed ozone background is higher than the 

policy relevant background used by the EPA of 0.015 to 0.035 ppm (72 FR 37857), thus 

is conservative and will tend to underestimate monetized health benefits. 

BenMAP’s rollback method occurs in two steps. First, it calculates each 

monitor’s 4th highest 8-hr max value and determines whether the monitor is in or out of 

attainment of the specified standard. It then develops a list of target metric values for 

each monitor by rolling back each day’s 8-hr max value using the quadratic method to 

meet the attainment standard. In the second step, BenMAP rolls back the hourly values 

at each monitor on each day to arrive to a set of hourly concentrations that meet the target 

metric value calculated in the first step. The overall method therefore gives new hourly 

values at each monitor that place it in attainment of the defined standard. 

After rolling back the monitor values to the defined attainment standard, the 

monitor concentrations were interpolated to a 12 km grid in BenMAP using the Voronoi 

Neighbor Averaging algorithm. We then calculated the benefits of the rollback within 

each grid cell and aggregated these benefits across each state within the domain. 

The health benefits of the model data rollback are calculated by applying 

concentration response functions. These functions, derived from published 

epidemiological studies, calculate the health response from a change in ozone 

concentration, taking into account the population within each grid cell and the baseline 

incidence rate. For our analysis, we chose five studies on ozone mortality and 14 studies 

on respiratory-based adverse health endpoints, including hospital admissions due to 

respiratory disease, emergency room visits due to asthma, school absence days, and 

decreased worker productivity. Using the reduced incidences attributed to improved air 

quality, BenMAP calculates the value of reduction using a variety of Cost of Illness 

(COI) and Willingness to Pay (WTP) valuation functions available within BenMAP. 

Table 2-1 in Section 2.8.1 describes the studies we used in this rollback analysis. 

5.2. Results 

Applying the health impact and valuation functions to estimated changes in ozone 

concentrations gave estimates in reductions in adverse health effects and the associated 

value of this reduction. Tables Table 5-1 through Table 5-3 show the estimated 

reductions in incidences attributed to attaining three ozone standards beyond 

implementation of CAIR+ and BOTW measures for the District of Columbia and each 

state belonging to the Ozone Transport Region. Table 5-4 through Table 5-6 show 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-3

 

estimated value of these reductions.3 For incidence results, we have presented each nonmortality health endpoint separately (with a combined incidence for respiratory hospital 

admissions in the elderly and children under 2 years of age) while mortality is shown as 

the range of the five mortality studies used. In the valuation tables, we have presented 

the combined value of all non-mortality health endpoints and the range of estimates from 

the five mortality studies used in this analysis. 

Table 5-1. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences 

State

ER Visits, 

Asthma

Hospital Admissions, All 

Respiratory Endpoints, >64 

Years and <2 Years

School Loss 

Days

Loss of Income Due to 

Decreased Worker 

Productivity

Mortality 

(Range of Five 

Studies) 

CT 9.3 79.7 21,933 103,880 3.8 - 19.3

DE 2.5 25.2 6,316 69,363 1.1 - 5.8

DC 2.3 20.7 4,145 11,509 1.1 - 5.2

ME 0.2 3.2 602 25,807 0.2 - 0.8

MD 23.9 234.4 55,316 337,687 10.6 - 47.3

MA 9.9 84.8 24,077 117,724 3.8 - 21.6

NH 0.8 6.9 1,99 17,097 3 0.3 - 1.6

NJ 33.0 290.0 80,844 358,430 14.1 - 73.3

NY 36.3 309.2 89,418 336,746 13.8 - 78.1

PA 39.6 396.5 89,286 921,220 24.4 - 104.3

RI 1.9 16.8 4,611 27,456 0.8 - 4.4

VT 0.0 0.1 20 444 0 - 0

VA 23.9 235.0 56,209 445,286 10 - 45

OTR Total 1,702.5 183.5 434,770 2,772,649 84 - 406.7

Table 5-2. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences 

State

ER Visits, 

Asthma

Hospital Admissions, All 

Respiratory Endpoints, >64 

Years and <2 Years

School Loss 

Days

Loss of Income Due to 

Decreased Worker 

Productivity

Mortality (Range 

of Five Studies) 

CT 5.3 46.1 12,982 54,523 2 - 11.5

DE 1.4 13.9 3,552 34,442 0.6 - 3.2

DC 1.6 14.9 3,045 7,821 0.8 - 3.9

ME 0.0 0.4 70 3,919 0 - 0.1

MD 15.4 157.0 37,628 200,285 6.7 - 32.1

MA 2.1 19.0 5,125 27,980 0.8 - 4.9

NH 0.1 0.8 209 2,222 0 - 0.2

NJ 18.8 171.8 48,642 202,596 7.9 - 44.4

NY 13.1 117.4 34,045 108,546 5 - 29.6

PA 22.4 228.4 53,610 480,424 13.2 - 62.6

RI 0.7 6.8 1,877 11,201 0.3 - 1.8

VT - - - - 0 - 0

VA 13.8 137.4 33,568 219,802 5.3 - 25.5

OTR Total 913.8 94.8 234,352 1,353,762 42.7 - 219.7

 

3

 The entry for Virginia in each of the tables is for the entire state, thus includes incidences and monetized 

benefits beyond the DC metropolitan portion of Virginia within the Ozone Transport Region. 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-4

 

Table 5-3. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Avoided Incidences 

State

ER Visits, 

Asthma

Hospital Admissions, All 

Respiratory Endpoints, >64 

Years and <2 Years

School Loss 

Days

Loss of Income Due to 

Decreased Worker 

Productivity

Mortality (Range 

of Five Studies) 

CT 3.4 29.2 8,251 33,192 1.3 - 7.2

DE 0.8 7.8 2,031 18,085 0.3 - 1.8

DC 1.4 12.4 2,557 6,425 0.6 - 3.2

ME 0.0 0.0 1 25 0 - 0

MD 11.8 120.7 29,178 142,763 5 - 24.7

MA 0.2 2.1 572 3,772 0.1 - 0.6

NH 0.0 0.2 52 540 0 - 0

NJ 12.3 113.1 32,303 134,709 5.1 - 29.5

NY 7.1 64.2 18,735 53,422 2.7 - 16.2

PA 14.8 150.1 35,947 300,149 8.6 - 41.7

RI 0.2 1.7 469 3,710 0.1 - 0.5

VT - - - - 0 - 0

VA 9.7 94.8 23,469 134,217 3.5 - 16.9

OTR Total 596 62 153,565 831,008 27.3 - 142.4

Table 5-4. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 60 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidences 

State

Total Value of Avoided Respiratory EndpointsHospital Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years, 

Asthma ER Visits, School Loss Days, Decreased 

Worker Productivity (Millions of 2000$)

Mortality- Range of Five 

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 2.78 23.99 - 121.97

DE 0.85 7.18 - 36.42

DC 0.60 7.16 - 33.07

ME 0.12 1.21 - 5.21

MD 7.44 66.89 - 298.59

MA 3.00 23.89 - 136.18

NH 0.25 1.83 - 10.07

NJ 10.13 88.74 - 462.5

NY 10.89 86.8 - 492.55

PA 13.11 153.72 - 658.38

RI 0.59 5.3 - 27.74

VT 0.00 0.03 - 0.18

VA 7.55 62.89 - 283.66

OTR Total 57.30 529.62 - 2566.52
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-5

 

Table 5-5. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 70 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidences 

State

Total Value of Avoided Respiratory EndpointsHospital Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years, Asthma 

ER Visits, School Loss Days, Decreased Worker 

Productivity (Millions of 2000$)

Mortality- Range of Five 

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 1.61 12.91 - 72.26

DE 0.47 3.67 - 20.38

DC 0.43 4.9 - 24.39

ME 0.01 0.15 - 0.67

MD 4.96 42 - 202.68

MA 0.65 5.36 - 30.7

NH 0.03 0.2 - 1.11

NJ 6.00 49.7 - 279.88

NY 4.10 31.45 - 186.69

PA 7.59 83.22 - 395.06

RI 0.24 2.03 - 11.34

VT 0.00 0 - 0

VA 4.38 33.37 - 160.99

OTR Total 30.48 268.96 - 1386.14

Table 5-6. Rollback from 2018 CAIR+ to 75 ppb 

Ozone Standard, Estimated Value of Avoided Incidences 

State

Total Value of Avoided Respiratory Endpoints- Hospital 

Admissions >64 Years and <2 Years, Asthma ER Visits, 

School Loss Days, Decreased Worker Productivity (Millions 

of 2000$)

Mortality- Range of Five 

Studies (Millions of 2000$)

CT 1.02 8.08 - 45.73

DE 0.26 2.02 - 11.47

DC 0.36 4.02 - 20.48

ME 0.00 0 - 0.02

MD 3.80 31.6 - 155.93

MA 0.07 0.64 - 3.55

NH 0.01 0.05 - 0.27

NJ 3.96 32.47 - 186.15

NY 2.24 17.01 - 102.4

PA 5.00 53.99 - 263.19

RI 0.06 0.52 - 2.89

VT 0.00 0 - 0

VA 3.01 21.86 - 106.62

OTR Total 19.79 172.25 - 898.72

The results above show that adopting an ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm (i.e., the 

upper limit of EPA’s proposal) after CAIR+ could result in an estimated 27 to 142 

avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR. When added to the 

benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimate a monetary benefit of 192 to 918 

million dollars over the 2018 ozone season. By contrast, adopting an ozone NAAQS of 

0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the CASAC recommended range), could result in 43 to 

220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. When added to 

the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimate an additional monetary 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 5-6

 

benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyond the 0.075 ppm standard (total benefit of 300 

million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Finally, adopting an ozone NAAQS at the 

lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm, could result in an estimated 

84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. Compared 

to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling indicates that a NAAQS set at 0.060 ppm, could 

net almost twice the monetary benefit with a benefit of 394 million dollars to 1.7 billion 

dollars beyond the 75 ppb standard (total benefit of 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars after 

CAIR+). 

The BenMAP results indicate substantial benefits from revising the current ozone 

NAAQS to within the CASAC range. Even in this regard, however, we believe the 

benefit estimates are quite conservative and are likely substantially higher, for the 

following reasons: 

• The rollback method uses unadjusted modeled 2018 ozone concentrations as 

proxies for monitored data that likely underestimate regional ozone levels,4

therefore the extent of actual ozone reductions in the Northeast in 2018 may be 

greater than estimated in the rollback method. 

• The ozone background level used of 0.040 ppm is higher than EPA’s policy 

relevant background of 0.015 to 0.035 ppm, so ozone reductions could occur to 

lower levels than allowed in the rollback method employed here. Not 

accounting for lower potential levels of ozone will reduce the estimated benefits 

of a more stringent ozone NAAQS. 

• The estimated benefits do not include consideration of additional reductions in 

mortality and morbidity endpoints associated with reduced PM2.5 due to NOx 

reductions needed to meet a more stringent ozone NAAQS. The EPA’s 

Regulatory Impact Analysis indicates these can be in the billions of dollars, 

thus substantially increasing the projected benefits from a revised ozone 

NAAQS. 

• The estimated health benefits do not include potential benefits from reduced 

volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Many VOCs are air toxics and 

can have health impacts apart from their contributions to ozone formation. 

• The analysis covered the period May 15 through September 15, thus omitting 

four weeks of the ozone season. In addition, there may be adverse health 

impacts from ozone exposure during the non-ozone season, as elevated ozone 

values in the 0.060 ppm range have been monitored in portions of the domain 

outside the assumed ozone season. 

• BenMAP calculates school absences based on the assumption that children are 

in school during all of May, two weeks in June, one week in August, and all of 

September. The estimated health benefits do not account for absences during 

summer school sessions. 

• The focus on the primary ozone NAAQS in this analysis does not include 

benefits from non-health endpoints (i.e., welfare values), such as reduced losses 

in the agriculture and forestry sectors due to lower regional ozone levels.

 

4

 In general, the model tends to underestimate ozone levels in most grid cells of the model domain during 

the full ozone season. In a subset of high peak ozone days, however, the model can overpredict ozone 

levels in some grid cells during some hours, but these incidents are spatially and temporally limited.
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 6-1

 

6. CONCLUSIONS 

In this report, we have used the CALGRID, CMAQ, and BenMAP models to 

investigate the public health and monetary benefits of several potential emission control 

programs under consideration by the OTC and MANE-VU states. These programs 

include an electric generating unit control strategy (“CAIR+”) for nitrogen oxides and 

sulfur dioxide that increases the stringency of the current Clean Air Interstate Rule and 

SO2 emissions control strategies that would complement existing regulations to further 

reduce fine particle concentrations and improve visibility under the Regional Haze Rule. 

In addition, we performed an examination of the benefits of achieving several different 

options for a revised National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone (NAAQS 

rollback). 

Based on our benefits analysis for 2018, we found that PM2.5 reductions 

throughout the year due to CAIR+ could result in 230 avoided premature deaths in the 

OTR states. Combined with reduced incidences of various morbidity endpoints, we 

estimated a total PM2.5 related benefit of 1.5 billion dollars annually. Using the same 

modeling platform, we estimated that CAIR+ reductions in ozone during the May 1-

September 30 ozone season could lead to 24 to 76 avoided premature deaths in the OTR 

states (range of five ozone mortality risk estimates). When added to other projected 

benefits due to reduced incidences of morbidity, we estimated a total ozone related 

benefit of 170 to 500 million dollars. Overall, we estimate the CAIR+ program to result 

in health benefits of 1.7 to 2.0 billion dollars in 2018 in the OTR due to reduced adverse 

health endpoints from exposures to PM2.5 and ozone. In states outside the OTR, we 

estimated a benefit of 560 million to 1.4 billion dollars due to ozone reductions and 4.4 

billion dollars due to PM2.5 reductions- a total benefit of 5.5 to 5.8 billion dollars. Across 

the entire modeled domain (Eastern US) we estimated a total benefit due to the CAIR+ 

program of 6.7 to 7.8 billion dollars. 

We examined four potential control strategies aimed at reducing regional haze in 

Class I areas of the MANE-VU region. Two programs under consideration include 

limitations on the sulfur content of fuel oil. The S1 strategy would restrict the fuel sulfur 

content of distillate sold in the region to no higher than 500 ppm whereas the S2 strategy 

would restrict it to 15 ppm. Residual oil is restricted under both programs to 0.25 and 

0.5 percent sulfur for No. 4 and No. 6 oil respectively. The third program is the Best 

Available Retrofit Technology (BART) provisions of the Regional Haze Rule, and finally 

controls on 167 stacks at EGUs (“167 EGU strategy”) that have the most significant 

impacts on MANE-VU Class I areas are also considered. 

Of the four programs, the 167 EGU stack control program leads to the greatest 

benefit in the region, resulting in 6.5 billion dollars of health benefits. The first phase of 

a sulfur-in-fuels limitation (S1) leads to health benefits of almost 3.4 billion dollars in 

MANE-VU. Controlling the fuel-sulfur content to 15 ppm (S2) could lead to an 

additional 431 million dollars in benefits, bringing the total benefits to 3.7 billion dollars. 

The BART estimate is based on controls at 14 units likely to be controlled under BART 

alone and with no other program that would satisfy the BART requirement. CMAQ and 

BenMAP modeling suggest that controls at these units could lead to 1.4 billion dollars of 

benefits in MANE-VU. If all regional haze programs were implemented, we estimate a 

total of 11.7 billion dollars in health benefits to MANE-VU in 2018. Additionally, 4.9 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 6-2

 

billion dollars of health benefits are estimated for the states within the Visibility 

Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) and the Midwest 

Regional Planning Organization (MWRPO) in 2018 due to implementation of these haze 

control strategies. 

In the third step of this analysis, we estimated the benefits of attaining three 

alternative 8-hour ozone NAAQSs – 0.060 ppm, 0.070 ppm, and 0.075 ppm (4th highest 

daily 8-hour max) – in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) using BenMAP. The analysis 

showed that there are significant monetized health benefits in going beyond a revised 

ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 ppm, which is the upper 

end of EPA’s range for its proposed ozone NAAQS revision (0.070 ppm – 0.075 ppm). 

Rolling back to a NAAQS of 0.075 ppm after CAIR+ gave an estimate of 27 to 142 

avoided premature deaths over the 2018 ozone season in the OTR. When added to the 

benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimated monetary benefits of 192 to 918 

million dollars over the 2018 ozone season. By contrast, adopting an ozone NAAQS of 

0.070 ppm (i.e., the upper limit of the range recommended by the Clean Air Scientific 

Advisory Committee (CASAC)) increases the mortality benefits with an estimated 43 to 

220 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. When added to 

the benefits from avoided morbidity endpoints, we estimate an additional monetary 

benefit of 107 to 498 million dollars beyond a 0.075 ppm standard (total benefit of 300 

million to 1.4 billion dollars after CAIR+). Finally, adopting an ozone NAAQS at the 

lower end of the CASAC recommended range, 0.060 ppm, results in an increased 

estimate of 84 to 407 avoided premature deaths in the OTR over the 2018 ozone season. 

Compared to the 0.075 ppm scenario, the modeling indicates that a NAAQS set at 0.060 

ppm could net almost twice the monetary benefits by providing 394 million dollars to 1.7 

billion dollars beyond a 75 ppb standard (total benefit of 530 million to 2.6 billion dollars 

after CAIR+). 
Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast Page 7-1

 

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DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Appendix A: State Level Benefits for Regional Haze Prog

Table A-1- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI) 

Endpoint CT DE DC ME 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 28 (8,49) 8 (2,14) 3 (1,6) 20 (6,35) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.04 (0.02,0.07) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 44 (-10,99) 11 (-3,25) 3 (-1,8) 22 (-5,50) 5Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 8 (2,15) 2 (0,3) 1 (0,1) 6 (1,11) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 49 (-18,239) 11 (-4,57) 4 (-1,18) 24 (-9,119) 5Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 85 (16,154) 20 (4,36) 6 (1,11) 42 (8,76) 8Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 54 (-1,108) 13 (0,26) 4 (0,8) 27 (-1,54) 5Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 18.5 (0.5,36.5) 5.2 (0.1,10.3) 2 (0.1,3.9) 12.4 (0.3,24.4) 22Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 2.6 (1.3,3.8) 1 (0.5,1.4) 0.3 (0.2,0.5) 1.3 (0.7,1.9) 4Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.9 (0.2,1.7) 0.2 (0,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.6 (0.1,1.2) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.3 (-0.6,1.2) 0.1 (-0.1,0.2) 0 (0,0.1) 0.2 (-0.5,0.9) 0Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.5 (-0.3,1.3) 0.1 (-0.1,0.3) 0 (0,0.1) 0.4 (-0.2,1) 0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.6 (0.2,1) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1.7 (1,2.4) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.1 (0.1,0.2) 1.2 (0.7,1.7) 1Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.8 (0.4,1.2) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.6 (0.3,0.9) 0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.5) 0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0 (0,0) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 1.2 (0.2,2.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.8 (0.1,1.5) 1Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 495 (419,571) 126 (107,146) 49 (41,56) 302 (255,348) 56Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 75 (28,120) 18 (7,29) 5 (2,9) 38 (15,62) 8
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-2- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), cont

Endpoint NH NJ NY PA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 12 (3,21) 67 (18,116) 158 (43,273) 77 (21,132) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.11 (0.04,0.17) 0.27 (0.11,0.44) 0.11 (0.04,0.18) 0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 18 (-4,40) 103 (-24,229) 254 (-59,565) 94 (-22,209) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 4 (1,6) 20 (5,35) 47 (12,83) 21 (5,36) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 18 (-7,91) 112 (-42,553) 275 (-103,1355) 102 (-38,501) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 32 (6,58) 197 (37,356) 482 (91,872) 178 (34,322) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 20 (0,41) 124 (-2,251) 305 (-6,615) 113 (-2,227) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 8.7 (0.2,17.1) 45 (1.2,88.7) 109 (3,214.8) 43.6 (1.2,85.9) 1Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 1 (0.5,1.5) 5.9 (3,8.8) 14.4 (7.4,21.5) 5.4 (2.7,8) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (0.1,0.7) 2.1 (0.4,3.9) 5.1 (0.9,9.3) 2.3 (0.4,4.3) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 (-0.3,0.5) 0.7 (-1.5,2.8) 1.6 (-3.5,6.8) 0.7 (-1.6,3.1) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2 (-0.1,0.5) 1.2 (-0.7,3) 2.8 (-1.6,7.2) 1.2 (-0.7,3.2) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 1.4 (0.5,2.3) 3.4 (1.3,5.6) 1.3 (0.5,2.1) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.7 (0.4,1) 4 (2.3,5.7) 9.5 (5.4,13.5) 4.3 (2.5,6.1) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 2 (1,3) 4.7 (2.5,7) 1.9 (1,2.9) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.9 (0.4,1.5) 2.2 (0.9,3.5) 1 (0.4,1.6) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.5 (0.2,0.8) 1.2 (0.4,2) 0.5 (0.2,0.8) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.5 (0.1,0.8) 2.7 (0.5,4.9) 6.4 (1.2,11.7) 3 (0.5,5.4) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 212 (180,245) 1217 (1031,1404) 2930 (2481,3379) 1097 (929,1266) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 29 (11,47) 175 (67,283) 422 (161,682) 157 (60,254) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-3- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), cont

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1 (0.3,1.7) 3.2 (0.9,5.5) 1.3 (0.4,2.3) 0.2 (0.1,0Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1.3 (-0.3,2.9) 6.4 (-1.5,14.2) 1.8 (-0.4,4.1) 0.3 (-0.1,Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 1.1 (0.3,2) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.3 (-0.9,11.4) 11.6 (-4.3,57.2) 2.6 (-1,13) 0.5 (-0.2,Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4 (0.8,7.3) 20.3 (3.9,36.7) 4.6 (0.9,8.3) 0.8 (0.2,1Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.6 (-0.1,5.2) 12.8 (-0.3,25.9) 2.9 (-0.1,5.9) 0.5 (0,1Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.6 (0,1.1) 2.4 (0.1,4.8) 0.8 (0,1.6) 0.1 (0,0Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 1.01 (0.52,1.51) 0.23 (0.12,0.34) 0.04 (0.02,Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.15 (0.03,0.27) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.01 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.04 (-0.08,0.15) 0.01 (-0.03,0.05) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.25 (0.14,0.35) 0.08 (0.05,0.12) 0.01 (0.01,Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.17 (0.09,0.25) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0.01 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.01,0.07) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.06 (0.01,0.11) 0.2 (0.04,0.37) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.01 (0,0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 24 (20,28) 119 (101,137) 28 (24,33) 4 (4,5Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 4 (1,6) 18 (7,29) 4 (2,7) 1 (0,1
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-4- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), cont

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 3.2 (0.9,5.5) 1.6 (0.4,2.7) 12.3 (3.4,21.2) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0.01) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 4.1 (-1,9.2) 2.1 (-0.5,4.6) 21 (-4.9,46.8) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1.1 (0.3,1.9) 0.5 (0.1,0.8) 3.4 (0.8,5.9) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7.6 (-2.8,37.5) 3.5 (-1.3,17.3) 27.4 (-10.2,135) 2Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 13.3 (2.5,24.1) 6.2 (1.2,11.1) 48 (9.1,86.8) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 8.4 (-0.2,17) 3.9 (-0.1,7.9) 30.3 (-0.6,61.3) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 1.9 (0.1,3.7) 0.9 (0,1.8) 9.4 (0.3,18.5) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.66 (0.34,0.99) 0.3 (0.15,0.45) 2.4 (1.22,3.58) 0.Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.16 (0.03,0.29) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.47 (0.08,0.86) 0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.04 (-0.08,0.16) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.11 (-0.25,0.47) 0.0Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.22 (-0.13,0.57) 0.0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.21 (0.08,0.34) 0.Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.26 (0.15,0.37) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.77 (0.44,1.1) 0.Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.14 (0.07,0.2) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.47 (0.24,0.7) 0.Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.21 (0.09,0.32) 0.Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.03 (0.01,0.06) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.12 (0.04,0.19) 0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.22 (0.04,0.39) 0.1 (0.02,0.18) 0.64 (0.12,1.16) 0.Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 82 (69,95) 38 (32,44) 310 (262,358) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 12 (5,19) 5 (2,9) 43 (16,69) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-5- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), cont

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1 (0.3,1.8) 1.2 (0.3,2) 1.1 (0.3,1.9) 5.3 (1.4,9Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1.7 (-0.4,3.8) 1.9 (-0.4,4.2) 1.7 (-0.4,3.9) 7.3 (-1.7,1Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.25 (0.06,0.44) 0.35 (0.09,0.61) 0.32 (0.08,0.56) 1.54 (0.38Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1.7 (-0.6,8.5) 2.4 (-0.9,11.9) 2.1 (-0.8,10.3) 9.4 (-3.5,4Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3 (0.57,5.43) 4.23 (0.8,7.66) 3.67 (0.7,6.64) 16.51 (3.14,Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1.9 (-0.04,3.84) 2.68 (-0.05,5.41) 2.32 (-0.05,4.69) 10.45 (-0.21Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.7 (0.02,1.38) 0.78 (0.02,1.54) 0.75 (0.02,1.48) 3.27 (0.09,Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.18 (0.09,0.26) 0.25 (0.13,0.37) 0.22 (0.11,0.33) 0.98 (0.5,1Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.05 (0.01,0.08) 0.04 (0.01,0.08) 0.21 (0.04,Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (-0.02,0.03) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.01 (-0.02,0.04) 0.05 (-0.11Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (-0.01,0.04) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.09 (-0.05Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.08 (0.03,Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.05 (0.03,0.07) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.07 (0.04,0.09) 0.32 (0.18,Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.14 (0.07Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.09 (0.04,Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.02,Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.07 (0.01,0.12) 0.06 (0.01,0.11) 0.3 (0.05,0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 18 (15,21) 25 (21,28) 22 (19,26) 101 (85,1Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3 (1,4) 4 (1,6) 3 (1,5) 15 (6,2
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-6- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI

Endpoint CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

178178000 

(13654000,549219000)

51668000 

(3960000,159262000)

20542000 

(1574000,63319000)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 276000 (23000,811000) 100000 (8000,294000) 45000 (4000,131000) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 16500 (-3800,37000) 4200 (-1000,9400) 1300 (-300,2900) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 556400 (137000,974200) 108400 (26800,189600) 39900 (9800,69900) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7580 (-2820,37190) 1790 (-670,8810) 570 (-210,2780) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 13270 (2510,24310) 3140 (590,5760) 990 (190,1820) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 8390 (-170,17080) 1990 (-40,4040) 630 (-10,1280) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 6257500 (115600,29528700) 1760300 (32500,8306200) 664400 (12300,3135300) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 710 (340,1130) 270 (130,430) 90 (40,140) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 14600 (2600,26600) 3600 (600,6500) 1400 (200,2600) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 4500 (-9900,18900) 900 (-1900,3600) 300 (-700,1400) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 12700 (-7400,32800) 2900 (-1700,7500) 1100 (-600,2800) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 4700 (1800,7700) 700 (300,1200) 200 (100,400) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 36600 (20900,52200) 8200 (4700,11700) 3100 (1800,4500) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 19000 (9900,28200) 5000 (2600,7400) 1800 (900,2600) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 5400 (2300,8400) 1400 (600,2200) 500 (200,800) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 2300 (800,3800) 600 (200,1000) 200 (100,300) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 21700 (4000,39400) 5600 (1000,10300) 2300 (400,4100) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 76200 (64500,87900) 16500 (14000,19000) 7200 (6100,8300) 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 13900 (5300,22700) 3300 (1300,5400) 1000 (400,1600) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-7- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 200

Endpoint MD MA NH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

206915000 

(15856000,637797000)

514585000 

(39438000,1586164000)

77310000 

(5925000,238301000)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 422000 (36000,1239000) 534000 (45000,1570000) 76000 (6000,222000) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 18500 (-4300,41400) 46200 (-10700,103100) 6800 (-1600,15200) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 440200 (108400,771000) 1565200 (386700,2734700) 235400 (58000,412000) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7990 (-2980,39200) 20560 (-7670,100830) 2880 (-1070,14130) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 13980 (2650,25620) 36010 (6810,65970) 5040 (950,9240) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 8840 (-180,18000) 22770 (-450,46320) 3190 (-60,6490) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 7497700 (138500,35383900)

18908100 

(349800,89214400) 2932100 (54200,13836100)

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 1230 (590,1970) 1890 (910,3020) 270 (130,430) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 14800 (2600,26900) 39400 (6900,71800) 5500 (1000,10000) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 3500 (-7600,14500) 12500 (-27400,52200) 1800 (-3900,7400) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 11400 (-6600,29500) 36600 (-21200,94400) 5200 (-3000,13500) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 3100 (1200,5000) 13200 (5100,21200) 1900 (700,3100) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 33000 (18900,47100) 101900 (58300,145400) 14400 (8300,20600) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 21000 (10900,31100) 54700 (28400,81100) 8800 (4600,13100) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 5700 (2400,8800) 15300 (6500,23900) 2200 (900,3400) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 2400 (800,4000) 6500 (2300,10800) 1100 (400,1700) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 23500 (4300,42700) 58400 (10700,106000) 8100 (1500,14800) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 82200 (69600,94800) 212000 (179500,244400) 27800 (23500,32000) 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 14900 (5700,24400) 36800 (14000,59900) 5400 (2100,8800) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-8- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 200

Endpoint NY PA RI 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

997249000 

(76424000,3073932000)

482212000 

(36953000,1486373000)

123495000 

(9466000,380663000)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1729000 (146000,5083000) 706000 (60000,2074000) 145000 (12000,426000) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 94800 (-21900,211900) 35100 (-8100,78600) 10100 (-2300,22600) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 3110700 (766900,5442700) 1361100 (335200,2382900) 343900 (85100,600100) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 42980 (-16030,210910) 15890 (-5920,77980) 4500 (-1680,22050) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 75260 (14240,137900) 27820 (5260,50980) 7880 (1490,14430) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 47600 (-950,96860) 17600 (-350,35810) 4980 (-100,10130) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)

36792300 

(680200,173610000)

14704300 

(271700,69393300) 4081300 (75600,19257600) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 4020 (1940,6410) 1490 (720,2380) 410 (200,660) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 78300 (13800,142800) 35800 (6300,65300) 9100 (1600,16500) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 24700 (-54200,103600) 11200 (-24500,46900) 2800 (-6200,11800) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 72100 (-41800,185900) 32200 (-18600,83000) 7900 (-4600,20400) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 27100 (10400,43800) 10100 (3900,16400) 2800 (1100,4500) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 201700 (115500,288000) 91200 (52200,130200) 22800 (13000,32500) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 108300 (56200,160400) 44200 (22900,65500) 11600 (6000,17100) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 30200 (12900,47100) 13500 (5800,21100) 3300 (1400,5200) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 12900 (4500,21300) 5300 (1800,8800) 1400 (500,2300) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 116200 (21200,211000) 53300 (9700,96800) 13500 (2500,24500) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 410600 (347700,473500) 136700 (115800,157700) 38500 (32600,44400) 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 78900 (30100,128500) 29400 (11200,47900) 7900 (3000,12900) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-9- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 200

Endpoint AL GA KY M

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 6244000 (478000,19245000) 19986000 (1531000,61604000) 8401000 (644000,25895000) 1156

(89000,3

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 15600 (1300,46000) 59500 (5000,175100) 17100 (1400,50200) 38

(300,1

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 490 (-110,1100) 2380 (-550,5340) 690 (-160,1540) 110 (-2Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 20700 (5100,36300) 75100 (18500,131800) 23500 (5800,41200) 3400 (80Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 400 (-100,1800) 1800 (-700,8900) 400 (-200,2000) 100 (0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 600 (100,1200) 3200 (600,5800) 700 (100,1300) 100 (0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 400 (0,800) 2000 (0,4100) 500 (0,900) 100 (0Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 195500 (3600,922900) 825600 (15200,3897500) 278900 (5100,1316400) 369

(700,17

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 100 (0,100) 300 (100,400) 100 (0,100) 0 (0Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 700 (100,1300) 2300 (400,4200) 800 (100,1400) 100 (0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 200 (-400,700) 600 (-1200,2300) 200 (-400,800) 0 (-100Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 600 (-300,1500) 1900 (-1100,4800) 600 (-400,1600) 100 (-10Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 100 (100,200) 700 (300,1100) 200 (100,300) 0 (0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1600 (900,2300) 5300 (3000,7500) 1800 (1000,2600) 300 (10Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 900 (500,1400) 3900 (2000,5800) 1000 (500,1500) 200 (10Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 300 (100,400) 900 (400,1400) 300 (100,500) 0 (0,Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 100 (0,200) 400 (200,700) 100 (0,200) 0 (0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 1100 (200,2000) 3600 (700,6600) 1200 (200,2200) 200 (0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2600 (2200,3000) 14500 (12200,16700) 3100 (2600,3500) 400 (40Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 700 (300,1100) 3400 (1300,5500) 800 (300,1300) 100 (10
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-10- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 200

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 

20157000 

(1545000,62132000) 

9840000 

(754000,30332000) 

77320000 

(5925000,2383300

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 39900 (3400,117400) 19800 (1700,58200) 171300 (14500,503Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1550 (-360,3470) 780 (-180,1740) 7850 (-1810,1757Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 70600 (17400,123900) 31900 (7800,56000) 221500 (54400,388Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1200 (-400,5800) 500 (-200,2700) 4300 (-1600,2100Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2100 (400,3800) 1000 (200,1800) 7500 (1400,1370Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1300 (0,2700) 600 (0,1200) 4700 (-100,9600Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 

640300 

(11800,3022900) 

316200 

(5800,1492600) 

3164400 

(58400,14936800

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 200 (100,300) 100 (0,100) 700 (300,1100) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 2400 (400,4400) 1100 (200,2000) 7200 (1300,1310Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 600 (-1300,2400) 300 (-600,1100) 1700 (-3800,7200Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1900 (-1100,5000) 900 (-500,2300) 5700 (-3300,1480Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 500 (200,700) 200 (100,300) 1700 (600,2700Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 5500 (3200,7900) 2500 (1400,3500) 16300 (9400,2330Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 3100 (1600,4600) 1400 (700,2100) 10800 (5600,1600Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 900 (400,1500) 400 (200,700) 2800 (1200,4400Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 400 (100,600) 200 (100,300) 1200 (400,2000Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 3800 (700,7000) 1700 (300,3100) 11400 (2100,2070Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 8900 (7500,10300) 4200 (3600,4900) 40800 (34600,471Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 2200 (800,3600) 1000 (400,1700) 8000 (3000,1300
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-11- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S1, Mean (95%CI), 200

Endpoint IL IN MI O

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 

6558000 

(503000,20214000) 

7405000 

(567000,22824000) 

6956000 

(533000,21442000) 

331

(2538000,

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 16830 (1420,49500) 18520 (1570,54450) 16910 (1430,49720) 67220 (56Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 630 (-150,1410) 710 (-160,1580) 650 (-150,1460) 2750 (-6Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 16660 (4090,29230) 23040 (5660,40420) 21130 (5190,37070) 10

(24890

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 270 (-100,1320) 380 (-140,1860) 330 (-120,1610) 1470 (-5Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 470 (90,860) 660 (130,1210) 570 (110,1050) 2580 (4Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 300 (-10,600) 420 (-10,850) 360 (-10,740) 1630 (-Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 

235740 

(4350,1112930) 

264000 

(4870,1246300) 

253320 

(4680,1195890) 

110

(20380,

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 50 (20,80) 70 (30,110) 60 (30,100) 270 (1Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 540 (90,980) 710 (130,1290) 660 (120,1210) 3220 (5Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 130 (-270,530) 170 (-370,720) 160 (-340,660) 770 (-16Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 390 (-230,1010) 540 (-310,1400) 490 (-280,1270) 2410 (-1Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 110 (40,180) 160 (60,250) 140 (50,230) 630 (2Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1120 (640,1600) 1520 (870,2170) 1390 (800,1990) 6810 (3Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 510 (270,760) 740 (380,1090) 670 (350,990) 3120 (1Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 200 (80,310) 270 (120,420) 250 (110,390) 1210 (5Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 80 (30,130) 110 (40,190) 100 (40,170) 480 (1Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 890 (160,1620) 1180 (220,2150) 1100 (200,2010) 5350 (9Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2440 (2060,2810) 3020 (2560,3480) 3090 (2620,3570) 12560 (10Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 500 (190,810) 700 (270,1150) 620 (240,1010) 2770 (1
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-12- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (9

Endpoint CT DE DC ME M

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 3.68 (1.01,6.35) 0.56 (0.15,0.97) 0.5 (0.14,0.87) 2.77 (0.76,4.78) 3.58 (0.9Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 5.79 (-1.34,12.91) 0.83 (-0.19,1.86) 0.53 (-0.12,1.19) 3.07 (-0.71,6.84) 5.42 (-1.2Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1.1 (0.27,1.93) 0.12 (0.03,0.22) 0.09 (0.02,0.16) 0.83 (0.2,1.45) 0.74 (0.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6.32 (-2.36,31.13) 0.91 (-0.34,4.49) 0.55 (-0.2,2.69) 3.29 (-1.23,16.22) 5.67 (-2.1Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 11.05 (2.1,20.01) 1.59 (0.3,2.89) 0.96 (0.18,1.73) 5.76 (1.09,10.43) 9.92 (1.8Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6.99 (-0.14,14.12) 1.01 (-0.02,2.04) 0.6 (-0.01,1.22) 3.64 (-0.07,7.36) 6.27 (-0.1Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 2.42 (0.07,4.77) 0.37 (0.01,0.73) 0.3 (0.01,0.6) 1.7 (0.05,3.36) 2.44 (0.0Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 0.33 (0.17,0.5) 0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0.18 (0.09,0.26) 0.49 (0.2Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.12 (0.02,0.22) 0.02 (0,0.03) 0.01 (0,0.03) 0.09 (0.02,0.16) 0.11 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.04 (-0.08,0.16) 0 (-0.01,0.02) 0 (-0.01,0.01) 0.03 (-0.06,0.12) 0.03 (-0.Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (-0.04,0.16) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.05 (-0.03,0.13) 0.05 (-0.Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.08 (0.03,0.13) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0.01) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.04 (0.0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.22 (0.13,0.32) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.17 (0.1,0.24) 0.17 (0.Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.11 (0.06,0.16) 0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.01 (0.01,0.02) 0.08 (0.04,0.12) 0.1 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.05 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.03 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 0.16 (0.03,0.28) 0.02 (0,0.04) 0.02 (0,0.03) 0.11 (0.02,0.2) 0.14 (0.0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 64.38 (54.51,74.26) 9.86 (8.35,11.37) 7.33 (6.2,8.45) 41.52 (35.15,47.89) 63.27 (53.Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 9.73 (3.71,15.75) 1.41 (0.54,2.29) 0.82 (0.31,1.32) 5.22 (1.99,8.45) 8.87 (3.3
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-13- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%C

Endpoint NH NJ NY PA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1.15 (0.32,1.98) 10.04 (2.76,17.33) 25.96 (7.13,44.8) 8.67 (2.38,14.95) 2.46 Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.01 (0,0.02) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1.72 (-0.4,3.83) 15.58 (-3.61,34.76) 43.63 (-10.1,97.31) 10.56 (-2.44,23.55) 3.42 Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.34 (0.08,0.59) 2.85 (0.7,5) 7.29 (1.79,12.78) 2.35 (0.58,4.12) 0.66 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1.74 (-0.65,8.6) 16.06 (-6.01,79.16) 43.62 (-16.32,214.98) 11.45 (-4.28,56.43) 3.67 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3.05 (0.58,5.53) 28.11 (5.34,50.87) 76.34 (14.5,138.18) 20.03 (3.8,36.26) 6.41 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1.93 (-0.04,3.9) 17.78 (-0.36,35.91) 48.29 (-0.97,97.54) 12.67 (-0.25,25.6) 4.06 Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.82 (0.02,1.61) 6.92 (0.19,13.64) 18.58 (0.52,36.64) 4.92 (0.14,9.71) 1.52 Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.09 (0.05,0.14) 0.85 (0.43,1.27) 2.3 (1.17,3.43) 0.6 (0.31,0.9) 0.1Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 (0.01,0.06) 0.3 (0.05,0.56) 0.78 (0.14,1.42) 0.27 (0.05,0.49) 0.08 Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.1 (-0.21,0.4) 0.25 (-0.54,1.04) 0.08 (-0.18,0.35) 0.02 Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.17 (-0.1,0.43) 0.42 (-0.25,1.1) 0.14 (-0.08,0.36) 0.04 Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.21 (0.08,0.33) 0.55 (0.21,0.89) 0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.05 Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 

0.06 (0.04,0.09) 0.56 (0.32,0.81) 1.45 (0.83,2.07) 0.49 (0.28,0.7) 0.14 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 

0.04 (0.02,0.05) 0.29 (0.15,0.43) 0.74 (0.38,1.09) 0.22 (0.11,0.32) 0.06 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.13 (0.06,0.21) 0.34 (0.15,0.53) 0.11 (0.05,0.18) 0.03 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.07 (0.03,0.12) 0.19 (0.06,0.31) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.02 Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.04 (0.01,0.08) 0.39 (0.07,0.7) 0.99 (0.18,1.79) 0.34 (0.06,0.61) 0.1 Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 

20.13 

(17.04,23.21) 

177.79 

(150.52,205.05) 471.18 (398.92,543.43) 123.99 (104.97,143) 38.54 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 2.74 (1.04,4.43) 25.06 (9.55,40.57) 67.09 (25.58,108.56) 17.69 (6.74,28.63) 5.4 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-14- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%C

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 0.11 (0.03,0.19) 0.36 (0.1,0.62) 0.13 (0.04,0.22) 0.02 (0.01Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.15 (-0.03,0.33) 0.72 (-0.17,1.61) 0.18 (-0.04,0.4) 0.03 (-0.01Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.13 (0.03,0.23) 0.03 (0.01,0.06) 0.01 (0,0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.26 (-0.1,1.27) 1.32 (-0.49,6.49) 0.25 (-0.09,1.23) 0.05 (-0.02Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.45 (0.09,0.82) 2.3 (0.44,4.17) 0.44 (0.08,0.79) 0.09 (0.02Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.29 (-0.01,0.58) 1.46 (-0.03,2.94) 0.28 (-0.01,0.56) 0.05 (0,0Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.06 (0,0.13) 0.28 (0.01,0.54) 0.08 (0,0.16) 0.01 (0,0Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.11 (0.06,0.17) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0 (0,0.Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.005 (0.001,0.01) 0.017 (0.003,0.031) 0.005 (0.001,0.009) 0.001 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.001 (-0.003,0.005) 0.004 (- 0.009,0.017) 0.001 (- 0.003,0.005) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.003 (-0.001,0.006) 0.008 (- 0.005,0.021) 0.002 (- 0.001,0.006) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.01 (0.004,0.015) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.009 (0.005,0.012) 0.028 (0.016,0.04) 0.008 (0.005,0.011) 0.001 (0.00Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.005 (0.002,0.007) 0.019 (0.01,0.029) 0.004 (0.002,0.006) 0.001 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.002 (0.001,0.004) 0.008 (0.003,0.012) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.001 (0,0.002) 0.005 (0.002,0.008) 0.001 (0,0.002) 0 (0,0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.02 (0,0.04) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2.71 (2.29,3.12) 13.49 (11.42,15.56) 2.67 (2.26,3.08) 0.47 (0.4Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.41 (0.15,0.66) 2.05 (0.78,3.32) 0.39 (0.15,0.63) 0.08 (0.03
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-15- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%C

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 0.36 (0.1,0.62) 0.16 (0.05,0.28) 1.36 (0.37,2.35) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.47 (-0.11,1.04) 0.22 (-0.05,0.49) 2.31 (-0.54,5.16) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.12 (0.03,0.21) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.38 (0.09,0.66) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.86 (-0.32,4.23) 0.37 (-0.14,1.84) 3.04 (-1.14,14.98) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1.5 (0.29,2.72) 0.65 (0.12,1.18) 5.32 (1.01,9.63) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.95 (-0.02,1.92) 0.41 (-0.01,0.83) 3.36 (-0.07,6.8) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.21 (0.01,0.42) 0.1 (0,0.19) 1.05 (0.03,2.08) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.07 (0.04,0.11) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.27 (0.14,0.4) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.018 (0.003,0.033) 0.008 (0.001,0.014) 0.053 (0.009,0.096) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.004 (-0.009,0.018) 0.002 (-0.004,0.008) 0.013 (-0.027,0.052) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.009 (-0.005,0.022) 0.004 (-0.002,0.009) 0.025 (-0.014,0.064) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.007 (0.003,0.011) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.024 (0.009,0.038) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 (0.017,0.042) 0.013 (0.007,0.018) 0.086 (0.049,0.122) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.016 (0.008,0.023) 0.007 (0.004,0.01) 0.053 (0.027,0.078) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.008 (0.003,0.012) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.023 (0.01,0.036) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.004 (0.001,0.006) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.013 (0.005,0.021) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.02 (0,0.04) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 9.25 (7.83,10.67) 4.01 (3.39,4.62) 34.87 (29.52,40.22) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1.34 (0.51,2.16) 0.58 (0.22,0.94) 4.74 (1.8,7.67) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-16- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%C

Endpoint IL IN MI O

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 0.11 (0.03,0.18) 0.11 (0.03,0.19) 0.09 (0.03,0.16) 0.52 (0Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0.001 Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.17 (-0.04,0.39) 0.18 (-0.04,0.39) 0.15 (-0.03,0.34) 0.72 (-Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.14 (0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.16 (-0.06,0.77) 0.21 (-0.08,1.02) 0.16 (-0.06,0.79) 0.84 (-0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.27 (0.05,0.49) 0.36 (0.07,0.65) 0.28 (0.05,0.51) 1.46 (0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.17 (0,0.35) 0.23 (0,0.46) 0.18 (0,0.36) 0.92 (-0Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.07 (0,0.14) 0.07 (0,0.14) 0.06 (0,0.13) 0.32 (0Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.09 (0Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.003 (0.001,0.006) 0.004 (0.001,0.007) 0.003 (0.001,0.006) 0.02 Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.001 (-0.002,0.003) 0.001 (- 0.002,0.004) 0.001 (-0.002,0.003) 0 (-0.Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.001 (-0.001,0.003) 0.002 (- 0.001,0.005) 0.002 (-0.001,0.004) 0.01 Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.007 (0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.005 (0.003,0.007) 0.006 (0.004,0.009) 0.005 (0.003,0.007) 0.03 (0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.003 (0.001,0.004) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.01 (0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.001 (0.001,0.002) 0.01 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.001 (0,0.001) 0.001 (0,0.002) 0.001 (0,0.001) 0.004 (0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.004 (0.001,0.008) 0.006 (0.001,0.01) 0.005 (0.001,0.009) 0.027 (0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1.61 (1.36,1.85) 2.11 (1.79,2.43) 1.7 (1.44,1.96) 8.92 (7Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.24 (0.09,0.39) 0.32 (0.12,0.52) 0.25 (0.1,0.41) 1.31 (
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-17- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (

Endpoint CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

23189000 

(1777000,71478000)

3548000 

(272000,10937000)

3176000 

(243000,9790000)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 36100 (3100,106100) 7500 (600,21900) 6900 (600,20300) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 2160 (-500,4850) 310 (-70,700) 200 (-50,450) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 72600 (17800,127300) 8100 (2000,14300) 6000 (1500,10600) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 990 (-370,4850) 140 (-50,700) 90 (-30,420) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1730 (330,3160) 250 (50,460) 150 (30,270) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1090 (-20,2220) 160 (0,320) 90 (0,190) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 816700 (15100,3855300) 125100 (2300,590700) 102500 (1900,483800) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 90 (40,150) 20 (10,30) 10 (10,20) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 1890 (330,3460) 260 (50,480) 210 (40,390) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 590 (-1280,2460) 60 (-140,270) 50 (-110,210) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1660 (-960,4270) 210 (-120,550) 160 (-90,420) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 620 (240,1000) 60 (20,90) 40 (10,60) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 4800 (2700,6800) 600 (300,900) 500 (300,700) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 2470 (1280,3660) 380 (200,560) 270 (140,390) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 700 (300,1100) 100 (40,160) 80 (30,130) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 300 (100,490) 40 (20,70) 30 (10,50) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 2820 (510,5130) 410 (80,750) 340 (60,620) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 9920 (8400,11440) 1290 (1090,1490) 1080 (920,1250) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1820 (690,2970) 260 (100,430) 150 (60,250) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-18- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint MD MA NH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

22560000 

(1729000,69539000)

54507000 

(4177000,168010000)

7238000 

(555000,22311000)

(

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 46000 (3900,135400) 56600 (4800,166500) 7100 (600,20900) 1

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 2030 (-470,4540) 4900 (-1130,10970) 640 (-150,1440) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 49000 (12000,86000) 168200 (41300,294900) 22200 (5500,39000) 18

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 890 (-330,4350) 2210 (-820,10830) 270 (-100,1340) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1550 (290,2840) 3860 (730,7080) 480 (90,870) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 980 (-20,1990) 2440 (-50,4970) 300 (-10,610) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 824300 (15200,3891500) 2001500 (36900,9448000) 276300 (5100,1304300) 233

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 140 (70,220) 200 (100,320) 30 (10,40) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 1640 (290,2990) 4210 (740,7680) 520 (90,940) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 380 (-840,1610) 1330 (-2920,5590) 170 (-360,690) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1270 (-730,3270) 3910 (-2260,10090) 490 (-280,1270) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 350 (130,560) 1410 (540,2280) 180 (70,300) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 3700 (2100,5200) 10900 (6200,15500) 1400 (800,1900) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 2330 (1210,3450) 5840 (3030,8650) 830 (430,1230) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 630 (270,980) 1640 (700,2550) 200 (90,320) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 270 (90,450) 700 (240,1150) 100 (30,160) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 2610 (480,4750) 6240 (1140,11340) 760 (140,1390) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 9170 (7760,10580) 22750 (19260,26240) 2630 (2230,3040) 2

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1660 (630,2710) 3960 (1510,6460) 510 (190,830) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-19- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint NY PA RI 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

163592000 

(12536000,504254000)

54605000 

(4184000,168312000)

15489000 

(1187000,47744000) 14

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 305900 (25900,899400) 79200 (6700,232900) 18500 (1600,54300) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 16320 (-3760,36510) 3950 (-910,8840) 1280 (-290,2860) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 480600 (118200,842400) 154900 (38000,271600) 43700 (10700,76600) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6810 (-2540,33460) 1790 (-670,8780) 570 (-210,2810) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 11930 (2260,21860) 3130 (590,5740) 1000 (190,1840) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7550 (-150,15360) 1980 (-40,4030) 630 (-10,1290) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)

6270400 

(115800,29598400) 1661300 (30700,7842500) 511800 (9500,2415900) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 640 (310,1020) 170 (80,270) 50 (30,80) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 11990 (2110,21860) 4070 (720,7430) 1150 (200,2090) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 3790 (-8290,15870) 1270 (-2790,5340) 350 (-780,1490) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 11040 (-6400,28480) 3660 (-2120,9430) 1000 (-580,2570) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 4320 (1660,6970) 1140 (440,1850) 360 (140,570) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 30900 (17700,44100) 10400 (5900,14800) 2900 (1600,4100) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 16850 (8740,24960) 4990 (2590,7400) 1450 (750,2150) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 4630 (1970,7210) 1540 (650,2400) 420 (180,660) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 1990 (690,3300) 600 (210,990) 170 (60,290) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 17790 (3250,32330) 6060 (1110,11010) 1710 (310,3100) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 66020 (55900,76140) 15440 (13080,17810) 4890 (4140,5630) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 12550 (4770,20460) 3310 (1260,5390) 1010 (380,1650) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-20- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 

696100 

(53300,2145800) 

2253100 

(172600,6945000) 

814100 

(62400,2509500) 

12390

(9500,38

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1700 (100,5100) 6700 (600,19700) 1700 (100,4900) 411 (35,1Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 50 (-10,120) 270 (-60,600) 70 (-20,150) 10 (0,3Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 2300 (600,4100) 8500 (2100,14900) 2200 (500,3900) 400 (100Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 40 (-20,200) 210 (-80,1010) 40 (-10,190) 10 (0,4Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 70 (10,130) 360 (70,660) 70 (10,120) 10 (0,2Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 40 (0,90) 230 (0,460) 40 (0,90) 10 (0,2Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 21800 (400,102800) 93200 (1700,440000) 27100 (500,127800) 3900 (100,Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 10 (0,10) 30 (20,50) 10 (0,10) 1 (1,2Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 80 (10,150) 260 (50,470) 70 (10,130) 13 (2,2Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 20 (-40,80) 60 (-140,260) 20 (-40,70) 3 (-7,1Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 60 (-40,160) 210 (-120,550) 60 (-30,160) 10 (-10Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 20 (10,20) 70 (30,120) 10 (10,20) 3 (1,4Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 200 (100,300) 600 (300,900) 200 (100,200) 29 (16,Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 100 (100,200) 400 (200,700) 100 (100,100) 17 (9,2Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 30 (10,50) 100 (40,160) 30 (10,50) 5 (2,8Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 10 (0,20) 50 (20,80) 10 (0,20) 2 (1,3Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 100 (0,200) 400 (100,700) 100 (0,200) 20 (4,3Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 300 (300,300) 1600 (1400,1900) 300 (200,300) 47 (40,Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 100 (0,100) 400 (100,600) 100 (0,100) 15 (6,2
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-21- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 

2265500 

(173600,6983100) 

1038900 

(79600,3202200) 

8597700 

(658800,26501500) 

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 4500 (400,13200) 2100 (200,6100) 19000 (1600,55900) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 170 (-40,390) 80 (-20,180) 870 (-200,1940) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 8000 (2000,14000) 3400 (800,6000) 24700 (6100,43400) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 130 (-50,660) 60 (-20,290) 470 (-180,2330) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 230 (40,430) 100 (20,190) 830 (160,1520) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 150 (0,300) 60 (0,130) 530 (-10,1070) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 

72000 

(1300,339700) 33300 (600,157200) 356000 (6600,1680700) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 20 (10,30) 10 (0,10) 70 (40,120) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 270 (50,500) 120 (20,210) 800 (140,1470) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 70 (-140,270) 30 (-60,120) 190 (-420,800) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 220 (-130,560) 90 (-50,240) 640 (-370,1650) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 50 (20,80) 20 (10,40) 190 (70,300) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 600 (400,900) 300 (200,400) 1800 (1000,2600) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 400 (200,500) 200 (100,200) 1200 (600,1800) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 110 (50,170) 50 (20,70) 310 (130,490) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 40 (10,70) 20 (10,30) 140 (50,230) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 400 (100,800) 200 (0,300) 1300 (200,2300) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1000 (800,1200) 400 (400,500) 4600 (3900,5300) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 200 (100,400) 100 (0,200) 900 (300,1400) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-22- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to S2, relative to S1, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 

661600 

(50700,2039200) 

691800 

(53000,2132400) 

597700 

(45800,1842400) 

326260

(250000,100

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1760 (150,5170) 1730 (150,5090) 1450 (120,4260) 6610 (560,1Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 65 (-15,146) 66 (-15,148) 56 (-13,126) 269 (-62,6Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1480 (360,2600) 1970 (480,3460) 1620 (400,2840) 9000 (2210,Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 24 (-9,119) 32 (-12,158) 25 (-9,123) 130 (-49,6Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 43 (8,78) 56 (11,103) 44 (8,80) 228 (43,4Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 27 (-1,55) 36 (-1,73) 28 (-1,56) 144 (-3,2Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 24060 (440,113560) 24610 (450,116180) 21700 (400,102450) 108410 (2000Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 

4 (2,7) 6 (3,9) 5 (2,7) 24 (12,3

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 48 (8,87) 61 (11,111) 51 (9,93) 286 (50,5Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 11 (-24,47) 15 (-32,61) 12 (-26,50) 68 (-149,2Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 35 (-20,90) 47 (-27,120) 38 (-22,97) 214 (-124,Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 10 (4,16) 13 (5,22) 11 (4,17) 56 (22,9Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 100 (60,140) 130 (70,190) 110 (60,150) 600 (350,Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 46 (24,68) 63 (33,94) 51 (26,76) 277 (144,Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 17 (7,27) 23 (10,36) 19 (8,30) 107 (46,1Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 7 (2,12) 10 (3,16) 8 (3,13) 42 (15,7Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 80 (10,140) 100 (20,180) 80 (20,150) 470 (90,8Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 220 (190,250) 260 (220,300) 240 (200,270) 1110 (940,Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 40 (20,70) 60 (20,100) 50 (20,80) 250 (90,4
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-23- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint CT DE DC ME 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 52 (14,90) 18 (5,31) 5 (1,9) 8 (2,14) 10Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.08 (0.03,0.13) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.21 Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 81 (-19,180) 26 (-6,58) 6 (-1,13) 9 (-2,20) 159 Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 18 (5,32) 4 (1,7) 1 (0,2) 3 (1,5) 2Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 106 (-40,519) 28 (-10,137) 9 (-3,43) 11 (-4,57) 188 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 185 (35,335) 49 (9,88) 15 (3,27) 20 (4,36) 32Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 117 (-2,236) 31 (-1,62) 10 (0,19) 13 (0,26) 20Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 34 (1,67) 12 (0,23) 3 (0,7) 5 (0,10) 7Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 6 (3,8) 2 (1,3) 1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 1Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 2.1 (0.4,3.8) 0.5 (0.1,1) 0.2 (0,0.4) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 3.5 Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.6 (-1.4,2.7) 0.1 (-0.3,0.5) 0.1 (-0.1,0.2) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 0.8 Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1.1 (-0.6,2.8) 0.3 (-0.1,0.7) 0.1 (-0.1,0.3) 0.2 (-0.1,0.5) 1.6 Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 1.3 (0.5,2.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 1.5 Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 3.7 (2.1,5.4) 0.9 (0.5,1.2) 0.4 (0.2,0.5) 0.6 (0.3,0.8) 5Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 1.81 (0.94,2.69) 0.51 (0.27,0.76) 0.19 (0.1,0.27) 0.29 (0.15,0.42) 3.3Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.87 (0.37,1.36) 0.23 (0.1,0.37) 0.09 (0.04,0.15) 0.14 (0.06,0.22) 1.51 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.46 (0.16,0.76) 0.13 (0.04,0.21) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.07 (0.03,0.12) 0.83 Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 2.62 (0.48,4.76) 0.71 (0.13,1.29) 0.3 (0.06,0.55) 0.39 (0.07,0.7) 4.71 Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1081 (916,1247) 303 (256,349) 119 (101,137) 143 (121,165) 2082 Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 161 (62,260) 43 (16,69) 13 (5,21) 18 (7,29) 292 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-24- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 

Endpoint NH NJ NY PA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 8 (2,15) 183 (50,316) 274 (75,472) 245 (67,422) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.28 (0.11,0.45) 0.46 (0.18,0.74) 0.33 (0.13,0.54) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 13 (-3,29) 272 (-63,603) 440 (-103,979) 279 (-65,621) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 3 (1,5) 57 (14,99) 92 (23,160) 66 (16,115) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 14 (-5,69) 318 (-119,1565) 545 (-204,2680) 308 (-115,1514) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 25 (5,45) 557 (106,1008) 955 (181,1728) 539 (102,975) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 16 (0,31) 352 (-7,711) 604 (-12,1218) 341 (-7,688) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 6 (0,12) 120 (3,236) 189 (5,372) 136 (4,268) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 1 (0,1) 17 (9,25) 29 (15,42) 16 (8,24) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.3 (0,0.5) 6.2 (1.1,11.3) 10 (1.8,18.2) 7.6 (1.3,13.9) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 2 (-4.3,8.2) 3.2 (-6.9,13.2) 2.4 (-5.2,10) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 (-0.1,0.4) 3.4 (-2,8.7) 5.4 (-3.2,14) 4 (-2.3,10.4) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 4.1 (1.6,6.5) 6.8 (2.6,11) 4 (1.5,6.5) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.5 (0.3,0.7) 11.5 (6.6,16.4) 18.6 (10.6,26.5) 14 (8,20) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.29 (0.15,0.43) 5.75 (2.98,8.52) 9.38 (4.87,13.89) 6.19 (3.21,9.17) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.12 (0.05,0.19) 2.71 (1.15,4.22) 4.37 (1.86,6.81) 3.28 (1.4,5.1) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.07 (0.03,0.12) 1.46 (0.51,2.41) 2.37 (0.82,3.91) 1.59 (0.55,2.62) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.33 (0.06,0.6) 7.88 (1.44,14.3) 12.61 (2.31,22.88) 9.68 (1.77,17.57) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 161 (136,185) 3450 (2922,3978) 5778 (4893,6661) 3406 (2885,3928) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 22 (8,36) 493 (189,795) 836 (321,1347) 473 (181,762) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-25- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -2 (0,-3) -4 (-1,-8) 121 (33,209) 2 (1,3) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,-0.01) -0.01 (-0.01,- 0.02) 0.25 (0.1,0.41) 0.01 (0,0.0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -2 (0,-4) -9 (2,-21) 169 (-39,374) 3 (-1,7) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.9 (0.2,1.5) 2.3 (0.6,3.9) 31.4 (7.9,54.5) 1 (0.2,1.7Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6 (-2,31) 24 (-9,117) 234 (-88,1150) 9 (-3,43) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 11 (2,20) 42 (8,76) 410 (78,742) 15 (3,28Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7 (0,14) 26 (-1,53) 259 (-5,523) 10 (0,20Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -0.8 (0,-1.6) -3.5 (-0.1,-6.9) 75.6 (2.1,148.7) 1.2 (0,2.4Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.5 (0.3,0.8) 2.1 (1.1,3.1) 20.5 (10.5,30.3) 0.8 (0.4,1.Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.6) 4.7 (0.8,8.5) 0.1 (0,0.3Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 (-0.07,0.13) 0.07 (- 0.16,0.31) 1.12 (-2.47,4.69) 0.03 (-0.07,0Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (-0.04,0.16) 0.15 (- 0.08,0.38) 2.23 (-1.29,5.75) 0.07 (-0.04,0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.17 (0.07,0.28) 1.79 (0.69,2.88) 0.06 (0.02,0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.22 (0.13,0.31) 0.5 (0.29,0.72) 7.66 (4.39,10.93) 0.23 (0.13,0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.11 (0.06,0.17) 0.35 (0.18,0.52) 4.05 (2.1,5.99) 0.13 (0.07,0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.14 (0.06,0.21) 2.1 (0.89,3.27) 0.06 (0.03,0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.09 (0.03,0.14) 1.02 (0.35,1.68) 0.03 (0.01,0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.18 (0.03,0.33) 0.41 (0.07,0.74) 6.29 (1.15,11.4) 0.19 (0.03,0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 66 (56,76) 250 (212,288) 2501 (2119,2883) 83 (70,96Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 10 (4,16) 37 (14,59) 362 (139,581) 14 (5,22
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-26- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), c

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 10 (3,18) 57 (16,98) 61 (17,106) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.14 (0.05,0.23) 0.12 (0.05,0.19) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 13 (-3,30) 83 (-19,184) 99 (-23,220) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 3.6 (0.9,6.2) 16.8 (4.2,29.3) 19.3 (4.8,33.5) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 26 (-10,128) 134 (-50,661) 153 (-57,753) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 46 (9,83) 236 (45,426) 268 (51,485) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 29 (-1,58) 149 (-3,300) 170 (-3,342) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 6 (0.2,11.9) 35.7 (1,70.2) 44.6 (1.2,87.9) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 2.2 (1.1,3.3) 11.6 (5.9,17.2) 13.3 (6.8,19.8) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.5 (0.1,1) 2.5 (0.4,4.5) 2.8 (0.5,5) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.13 (-0.28,0.53) 0.59 (-1.3,2.48) 0.66 (-1.44,2.75) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.25 (-0.15,0.65) 1.18 (-0.68,3.04) 1.3 (-0.75,3.35) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.2 (0.08,0.32) 1 (0.39,1.62) 1.18 (0.46,1.91) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.88 (0.5,1.25) 4.07 (2.33,5.81) 4.51 (2.58,6.43) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.47 (0.24,0.69) 2.27 (1.18,3.36) 2.7 (1.4,4) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.24 (0.1,0.37) 1.11 (0.47,1.72) 1.22 (0.52,1.9) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.12 (0.04,0.19) 0.56 (0.19,0.93) 0.66 (0.23,1.09) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.73 (0.13,1.32) 3.33 (0.61,6.05) 3.71 (0.68,6.74) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 278 (235,320) 1415 (1198,1631) 1721 (1458,1984) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 40 (15,65) 207 (79,333) 237 (91,382) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-27- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%CI), 

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -4 (-1,-7) 101 (28,174) 27 (7,47) 225 (62,38Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 

-0.04 (-0.02,-

0.07) 0.24 (0.09,0.39) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.5 (0.19,0

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -23 (-5,-52) 158 (-37,351) 42 (-10,93) 330 (-77,7Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) -14 (-3,-24) 24 (6,41) -3 (-1,-6) 53 (13,93Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -113 (-561,42) 164 (-62,807) -24 (-119,9) 352 (- 132,1728Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -198 (-38,-359) 288 (55,521) -42 (-8,-75) 616 (117,1114Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -125 (3,-254) 182 (-4,367) -26 (1,-53) 389 (-8,78Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -7 (0,-13) 67 (2,131) 18 (1,36) 145 (4,28Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) -12 (-6,-18) 17 (9,25) -2 (-1,-4) 36 (19,54Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) -1.7 (-0.3,-3.2) 3.3 (0.6,5.9) -0.4 (-0.1,-0.8) 7.3 (1.3,13Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) -0.4 (0.9,-1.7) 0.8 (-1.7,3.3) -0.1 (0.2,-0.4) 1.7 (-3.8,7Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -0.8 (0.4,-1.9) 1.5 (-0.9,3.8) -0.2 (0.1,-0.5) 3.3 (-1.9,8Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) -0.9 (-0.4,-1.5) 1.4 (0.5,2.2) -0.2 (-0.1,-0.3) 3 (1.2,4.8Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) -2.6 (-1.5,-3.7) 5 (2.9,7.2) -0.6 (-0.4,-0.9) 11.2 (6.4,15.9Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) -1.3 (-0.7,-1.9) 2.3 (1.2,3.4) -0.3 (-0.2,-0.4) 5 (2.6,7.4Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -0.7 (-1.1,-0.3) 1.4 (0.6,2.2) -0.2 (-0.3,-0.1) 3.1 (1.3,4Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) -0.4 (-0.1,-0.7) 0.7 (0.3,1.2) -0.1 (0,-0.2) 1.6 (0.6,2Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) -2.5 (-0.4,-4.5) 4.6 (0.8,8.3) -0.6 (-0.1,-1.1) 10.3 (1.9,18.8Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 

-1126 (-953,-

1299) 

1694 

(1435,1953) -231 (-196,-267) 3744 (3171,431

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) -182 (-69,-298) 251 (97,403) -36 (-13,-60) 544 (209,8
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-28- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 327304000 (25085000,1008885000) 112467000 (8621000,346667000) 33810000 (2591000,104216000) 

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 501300 (42400,1473900) 236700 (20000,695700) 72200 (6100,212200) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 30300 (-7000,67700) 9800 (-2300,21900) 2200 (-500,4800) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1206100 (299800,2098700) 248000 (61600,431900) 94500 (23500,164500) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 16500 (-6200,80800) 4400 (-1600,21300) 1400 (-500,6600) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 28900 (5500,52900) 7600 (1400,14000) 2400 (400,4300) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 18300 (-400,37200) 4800 (-100,9800) 1500 (0,3000) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 11548100 (213700,54488200) 3975600 (73600,18759700) 1124500 (20800,5306000) 1

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 1540 (750,2450) 650 (310,1040) 210 (100,330) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 31900 (5600,58100) 8100 (1400,14800) 3400 (600,6200) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 9900 (-21700,41300) 2000 (-4300,8200) 800 (-1700,3300) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 27900 (-16200,71900) 6600 (-3800,16900) 2600 (-1500,6600) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 10400 (4000,16700) 1700 (700,2800) 600 (200,1000) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

80200 (45900,114500) 18600 (10600,26500) 7500 (4300,10700) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

41600 (21600,61600) 11700 (6100,17300) 4200 (2200,6300) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 11900 (5100,18500) 3200 (1400,4900) 1300 (500,2000) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 5000 (1700,8200) 1400 (500,2300) 500 (200,800) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 47500 (8700,86200) 12800 (2300,23200) 5400 (1000,9900) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 166600 (141100,192000) 39500 (33500,45600) 17600 (14900,20300) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 30200 (11600,49000) 8000 (3100,13000) 2400 (900,3900) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-29- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint MD MA NH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 648227000 (49686000,1998100000) 485515000 (37209000,1496558000) 52956000 (4058000,163231000) 

(8

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1303700 (110300,3832700) 480100 (40600,1411400) 53400 (4500,156900) 176

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 59500 (-13800,132700) 41700 (-9700,93200) 4900 (-1100,11000) 10Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1585800 (394800,2756200) 1714300 (424700,2989400) 175000 (43200,305900) 375

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 29400 (-11000,143700) 21600 (-8100,106000) 2200 (-800,10800) 4Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 51400 (9700,94200) 37900 (7200,69400) 3900 (700,7100) 8Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 32500 (-600,66100) 24000 (-500,48700) 2400 (0,5000) 5Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 23962200 (443600,113065800) 17331800 (320600,81776200) 2074900 (38300,9791700) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 4500 (2180,7160) 1990 (960,3170) 210 (100,330) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 53400 (9400,97300) 43500 (7700,79400) 4000 (700,7400) 9Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 12500 (-27600,52500) 13800 (-30300,57800) 1300 (-2800,5400) 3

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 41400 (-24000,106700) 40500 (-23500,104300) 3900 (-2200,10000) 8

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 11500 (4400,18500) 13900 (5300,22500) 1500 (600,2400) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

119600 (68500,170600) 112700 (64500,160800) 10600 (6100,15200) 24

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

77400 (40100,114500) 59500 (30800,88100) 6700 (3500,9900) 1

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 20500 (8700,31900) 16900 (7200,26400) 1600 (700,2500) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 9000 (3100,14800) 7100 (2500,11800) 800 (300,1300) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 85100 (15600,154300) 64500 (11800,117200) 6000 (1100,10800) 1

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 301800 (255600,347900) 222000 (188000,256000) 21000 (17800,24200) 53

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 54600 (20900,88600) 38900 (14900,63300) 4100 (1600,6700) 9
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-30- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint NY PA RI 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

1723845000 

(132127000,5313596000)

1542445000 

(118222000,4754444000)

114756000 

(8796000,353726000)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 2914100 (246400,8567000) 2097800 (177400,6167300) 120500 (10200,354200) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 164700 (-38200,367500) 104400 (-24200,233000) 9200 (-2100,20400) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 6072300 (1508000,10571400) 4366100 (1083300,7605900) 375200 (93100,653300) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 85200 (-31800,417100) 48100 (-17900,235600) 4700 (-1800,23200) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 149200 (28200,273300) 84200 (15900,154300) 8300 (1600,15200) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 94300 (-1900,191800) 53200 (-1100,108300) 5200 (-100,10700) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 63703800 (1179200,300586600) 45967700 (850700,216897000) 3807800 (70500,17966900) 5

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 7950 (3850,12650) 4520 (2190,7200) 430 (210,690) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 153200 (27000,279100) 116600 (20600,212500) 9800 (1700,17900) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 48400 (-106400,202800) 36500 (-80100,152700) 3000 (-6700,12800) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 141600 (-82100,364800) 105000 (-60900,270500) 8600 (-5000,22200) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 53700 (20600,86700) 31200 (12000,50400) 3000 (1200,4800) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

395500 (226500,564500) 297300 (170200,424200) 24700 (14200,35300) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

214600 (111300,317800) 141200 (73300,209100) 12800 (6600,19000) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 59300 (25300,92300) 44100 (18800,68800) 3600 (1600,5700) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 25500 (8800,42100) 17000 (5900,28100) 1500 (500,2500) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 227200 (41600,412300) 173400 (31700,314700) 14600 (2700,26500) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 809500 (685600,933400) 424300 (359400,489300) 41000 (34800,47300) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 156400 (59900,254000) 88400 (33800,143600) 8400 (3200,13600) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-31- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint AL GA KY 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -9492000 (-29256000,-727263) -28128000 (-86701000,- 2155281) 762717000 (58475000,2350996992) 

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) -28440 (-83610,-2400) -89900 (-264340,-7600) 1597300 (135080,4695390) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -690 (-1540,160) -3540 (-7920,810) 63130 (-14710,140610) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 57700 (14460,99820) 149220 (37450,257850) 2072160 (517930,3591950) 6

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 990 (-370,4820) 3730 (-1390,18220) 36580 (-13670,178920) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1730 (330,3170) 6540 (1240,11970) 64120 (12140,117430) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1090 (-20,2220) 4130 (-80,8390) 40520 (-810,82370) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -275500 (-1300970,-5080) -1183860 (-5589820,-21840) 25510330 (473020,120382900) 4

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 150 (70,240) 580 (280,920) 5690 (2760,9060) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 2040 (360,3710) 4640 (820,8450) 70760 (12490,128840) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 490 (-1070,2030) 1110 (-2450,4660) 17060 (-37560,71400) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 1630 (-950,4200) 3780 (-2200,9740) 57640 (-33460,148470) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 370 (140,590) 1360 (520,2190) 13870 (5340,22390) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

4640 (2660,6620) 10670 (6110,15220) 162040 (92810,231210) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

2590 (1340,3830) 8040 (4170,11910) 92040 (47760,136290) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 800 (340,1240) 1840 (780,2860) 28070 (11970,43720) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 300 (100,500) 910 (320,1510) 10850 (3770,17910) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 3220 (590,5840) 7320 (1340,13260) 111910 (20490,202940) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 7200 (6100,8300) 30400 (25800,35100) 271500 (230000,313000) 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 1800 (700,3000) 6800 (2600,11000) 67700 (26000,109700) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-32- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint NC SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 204749000 (15690000,631119104) 64308000 (4928000,198222752) 358900000 (27505000,1106278400) 386244000 (29600000,1190563328

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 506690 (42850,1489720) 131040 (11080,385290) 885310 (74870,2602760) 732780 (61970,2154370

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 18720 (-4320,41870) 5040 (-1160,11280) 30870 (-7150,68970) 37020 (-8570,82740) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 707840 (175020,1236020) 236230 (58560,411750) 1110330 (276130,1931180) 1269750 (315280,221088

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 13780 (-5140,67550) 4070 (-1520,19960) 21010 (-7840,102850) 23920 (-8930,117140) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 24130 (4560,44200) 7130 (1350,13070) 36800 (6970,67410) 41900 (7930,76750) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 15260 (-300,31040) 4510 (-90,9170) 23260 (-460,47310) 26490 (-530,53870) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 7098860 (131110,33505930) 2037080 (37610,9615540) 12032310 (222480,56774220) 15051290 (278240,71022470) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 2100 (1010,3340) 630 (300,1000) 3220 (1560,5120) 3700 (1790,5900) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 24650 (4350,44930) 8160 (1440,14870) 37630 (6640,68540) 42170 (7440,76840) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 5820 (-12770,24370) 1940 (-4260,8130) 9010 (-19820,37740) 10040 (-22050,42020) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 19340 (-11210,49860) 6510 (-3780,16780) 30490 (-17680,78560) 33720 (-19550,86890) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 5010 (1920,8090) 1540 (590,2480) 7790 (2990,12570) 9280 (3570,14980) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

55520 (31790,79240) 18550 (10620,26470) 86170 (49350,122970) 95850 (54880,136790) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

31750 (16470,47030) 10640 (5520,15760) 51670 (26810,76520) 61680 (32000,91340) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 9470 (4040,14760) 3170 (1350,4940) 14820 (6320,23080) 16510 (7040,25730) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 3660 (1270,6050) 1230 (430,2040) 5970 (2070,9860) 7100 (2470,11740) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 39170 (7160,71130) 12930 (2360,23470) 59370 (10860,107740) 66710 (12200,121090) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 103300 (87500,119100) 30100 (25500,34700) 157700 (133500,181800) 226700 (192000,261300Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 25000 (9500,40700) 7600 (2900,12300) 38700 (14800,62800) 44400 (17000,72100) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-33- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to 167 EGU, Mean (95%

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -26290000 (-81022000,-2011000) 634458000 (48636000,1955656000) 172114000 (13190000,530526000) 1417907000 (108688000,437056300

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) -270000 (-794000,-22800) 1524000 (128900,4480300) 434300 (36700,1276900) 3141600 (265700,92354

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -8700 (-19500,2000) 59100 (-13800,131900) 15600 (-3600,34900) 123500 (-28700,27550

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) -904900 (-1612800,-217000) 1570000 (393200,2717500) -222500 (-403700,-51900) 3525600 (877700,61276

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -17700 (-87300,6600) 25700 (-9600,125500) -3700 (-18500,1400) 54900 (-20500,268900

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -30900 (-56700,-5800) 45000 (8500,82400) -6500 (-11900,-1200) 96200 (18200,176300

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -19600 (-39900,400) 28400 (-600,57800) -4100 (-8400,100) 60800 (-1200,123700Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -2233300 (-10562400,-41000) 22465400 (416200,106008700) 6145400 (113600,28999600) 48857200 (904900,230540900) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) -3400 (-5400,-1600) 4600 (2200,7300) -700 (-1100,-300) 10100 (4900,16000) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) -26600 (-48500,-4700) 49600 (8800,90300) -6300 (-11600,-1100) 111400 (19700,203000

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) -6300 (-26300,13600) 12000 (-26400,50100) -1500 (-6400,3300) 26600 (-58600,111500Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) -19500 (-50400,11200) 38300 (-22200,98600) -4800 (-12400,2800) 84200 (-48900,217100Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) -7300 (-11900,-2800) 10600 (4100,17100) -1500 (-2400,-600) 23500 (9000,37900) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

-55400 (-79100,-31700) 106900 (61200,152600) -13400 (-19200,-7700) 237100 (135800,33840

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

-29900 (-44300,-15500) 51900 (27000,76900) -6900 (-10300,-3600) 114100 (59200,169000

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -9800 (-15300,-4200) 19200 (8200,29800) -2400 (-3700,-1000) 42200 (18000,65700) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) -4500 (-7500,-1600) 7800 (2700,13000) -1100 (-1800,-400) 17400 (6000,28700) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) -44300 (-80700,-8000) 82300 (15100,149300) -10600 (-19400,-1900) 185300 (33900,336200

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) -154000 (-178000,-131000) 207000 (175000,239000) -32000 (-37000,-27000) 468000 (396000,53900Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) -34000 (-56000,-13000) 47000 (18000,76000) -7000 (-11000,-2000) 102000 (39000,165000
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-34- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%C

Endpoint CT DE DC ME 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 14 (3.9,24.5) 2 (0.5,3.4) 1 (0.3,1.7) 6 (1.5,9.6) 14 Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.002 (0.001,0.003) 0.006 (0.002,0.009) 0.029 Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 22.3 (-5.2,49.6) 3 (-0.7,6.6) 1 (-0.2,2.3) 6.3 (-1.5,14) 22.8 Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 4.4 (1.1,7.7) 0.5 (0.1,0.9) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 1.7 (0.4,3) 3.6 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 25 (-9.3,123.1) 3.7 (-1.4,18.4) 1.4 (-0.5,6.9) 7.1 (-2.6,34.8) 28 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 43.7 (8.3,79.1) 6.5 (1.2,11.9) 2.5 (0.5,4.4) 12.4 (2.3,22.4) 49 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 27.7 (-0.6,55.9) 4.1 (-0.1,8.4) 1.6 (0,3.1) 7.8 (-0.2,15.8) 31 Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 9.33 (0.26,18.4) 1.33 (0.04,2.62) 0.59 (0.02,1.17) 3.44 (0.1,6.79) 10.14 Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 1.32 (0.67,1.96) 0.32 (0.16,0.47) 0.12 (0.06,0.18) 0.37 (0.19,0.56) 2.43 Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.49 (0.09,0.89) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.04 (0.01,0.07) 0.18 (0.03,0.33) 0.51 Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.15 (-0.33,0.63) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.01 (-0.02,0.03) 0.06 (-0.13,0.25) 0.12 Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 0.25 (-0.15,0.65) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.02 (-0.01,0.04) 0.11 (-0.06,0.27) 0.23 Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.31 (0.12,0.5) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.1 (0.04,0.16) 0.22 Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.88 (0.51,1.26) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.06 (0.03,0.08) 0.35 (0.2,0.5) 0.82 Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.43 (0.22,0.63) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.03 (0.02,0.04) 0.17 (0.09,0.25) 0.5 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.21 (0.09,0.32) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.02) 0.08 (0.04,0.13) 0.22 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.11 (0.04,0.18) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.04 (0.02,0.07) 0.12 Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 0.62 (0.11,1.12) 0.09 (0.02,0.17) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.23 (0.04,0.41) 0.69 Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 255 (215.5,293.6) 41 (34.4,46.9) 19 (16.3,22.2) 86 (72.8,99.2) 311 Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 38 (14.7,62.3) 6 (2.2,9.4) 2 (0.8,3.4) 11 (4.3,18) 44 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-35- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), co

Endpoint NH NJ NY PA R

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 4 (1.1,6.8) 33 (9,56.3) 64 (17.6,110.7) 41 (11.3,71.3) 4 (1.1Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.004 (0.002,0.006) 0.051 (0.02,0.082) 0.107 (0.042,0.172) 0.059 (0.023,0.094) 0.005 (0.0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 6 (-1.4,13.3) 50.8 (-11.8,113.3) 102.5 (-23.8,228.6) 49.7 (-11.5,110.7) 5.8 (-1.Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1.3 (0.3,2.2) 9.7 (2.4,17.1) 19.9 (4.9,34.9) 10.9 (2.7,19) 1.2 (0.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6.6 (-2.5,32.8) 54.6 (-20.4,269) 115.6 (-43.2,569.4) 51.7 (-19.4,254.9) 6.7 (-2.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 11.6 (2.2,21.1) 95.5 (18.1,172.9) 202.2 (38.4,366) 90.6 (17.2,163.9) 11.7 (2.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7.4 (-0.1,14.9) 60.4 (-1.2,122.1) 127.9 (-2.6,258.4) 57.3 (-1.1,115.7) 7.4 (-0.Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 2.83 (0.08,5.59) 22.27 (0.62,43.9) 43.8 (1.21,86.34) 23.63 (0.66,46.59) 2.61 (0.0Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.35 (0.18,0.53) 2.9 (1.48,4.32) 6.06 (3.08,9.02) 2.73 (1.39,4.06) 0.35 (0.Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.13 (0.02,0.23) 1.04 (0.18,1.89) 2.13 (0.38,3.89) 1.23 (0.22,2.24) 0.14 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.04 (-0.09,0.17) 0.33 (-0.72,1.37) 0.68 (-1.48,2.83) 0.38 (-0.84,1.61) 0.04 (-0.Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19) 0.56 (-0.33,1.45) 1.16 (-0.67,3) 0.65 (-0.38,1.68) 0.07 (-0.Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.09 (0.03,0.14) 0.7 (0.27,1.13) 1.44 (0.55,2.33) 0.66 (0.25,1.07) 0.08 (0.0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 

0.24 (0.14,0.35) 1.92 (1.1,2.74) 3.96 (2.27,5.66) 2.25 (1.29,3.22) 0.25 (0.

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 

0.14 (0.07,0.21) 0.99 (0.51,1.47) 2 (1.04,2.97) 1.02 (0.53,1.5) 0.12 (0.0

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.45 (0.19,0.7) 0.93 (0.4,1.45) 0.53 (0.22,0.82) 0.06 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.25 (0.09,0.42) 0.51 (0.18,0.84) 0.26 (0.09,0.43) 0.03 (0.0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.16 (0.03,0.29) 1.31 (0.24,2.39) 2.7 (0.49,4.9) 1.56 (0.28,2.83) 0.18 (0.0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 76 (64.3,87.6) 592 (501,682.4) 1213 (1026.8,1398.8) 562 (476.2,648.7) 71 (60Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 10 (4,16.9) 86 (32.6,138.4) 178 (68,288.3) 80 (30.5,129.4) 10 (3.
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-36- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), co

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1 (0.3,1.7) 2.9 (0.8,5.1) 1.5 (0.4,2.6) 0.2 (0.1,0.Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.003 (0.001,0.004) 0.009 (0.003,0.014) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.001 (0,0.0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1.3 (-0.3,3) 5.9 (-1.4,13.2) 2.1 (-0.5,4.7) 0.3 (-0.1,0Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.32 (0.08,0.56) 1.04 (0.26,1.83) 0.37 (0.09,0.64) 0.05 (0.01,0Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.32 (-0.87,11.44) 10.62 (-3.97,52.33) 2.71 (-1.02,13.38) 0.46 (-0.17,2Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4.06 (0.77,7.35) 18.58 (3.53,33.63) 4.75 (0.9,8.6) 0.8 (0.15,1.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.57 (-0.05,5.19) 11.75 (-0.24,23.74) 3 (-0.06,6.07) 0.51 (-0.01,1Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.59 (0.02,1.17) 2.26 (0.06,4.47) 0.95 (0.03,1.88) 0.11 (0,0.2Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.93 (0.47,1.38) 0.24 (0.12,0.36) 0.04 (0.02,0Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.14 (0.02,0.25) 0.05 (0.01,0.1) 0.01 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.03 (-0.07,0.14) 0.01 (-0.03,0.05) 0 (0,0.01Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (-0.01,0.06) 0.07 (-0.04,0.17) 0.03 (-0.01,0.07) 0 (0,0.01Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.08 (0.03,0.12) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0 (0,0.01Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.08 (0.04,0.11) 0.23 (0.13,0.32) 0.09 (0.05,0.12) 0.01 (0.01,0Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.16 (0.08,0.23) 0.05 (0.02,0.07) 0.01 (0,0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.06 (0.03,0.1) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0 (0,0.01Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 0.06 (0.01,0.12) 0.19 (0.03,0.34) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.01 (0,0.0Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 24.3 (20.6,28) 108.8 (92.1,125.5) 29.2 (24.7,33.6) 4.4 (3.7,5Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3.6 (1.4,5.9) 16.5 (6.3,26.8) 4.2 (1.6,6.9) 0.7 (0.3,1.
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-37- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), co

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 2.9 (0.8,5) 1.7 (0.5,2.9) 10.2 (2.8,17.6) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.006 (0.002,0.009) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.021 (0.008,0.034) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 3.8 (-0.9,8.5) 2.2 (-0.5,4.9) 17.5 (-4,39) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.96 (0.24,1.69) 0.5 (0.12,0.87) 2.96 (0.73,5.19) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6.86 (-2.57,33.83) 3.53 (-1.32,17.39) 24.16 (-9.04,119.08) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 12.01 (2.28,21.74) 6.17 (1.17,11.17) 42.28 (8.03,76.53) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7.6 (-0.15,15.35) 3.9 (-0.08,7.89) 26.75 (-0.54,54.02) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 1.73 (0.05,3.42) 0.99 (0.03,1.96) 7.65 (0.21,15.09) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.6 (0.3,0.89) 0.3 (0.16,0.45) 2.12 (1.08,3.15) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.14 (0.03,0.26) 0.07 (0.01,0.13) 0.41 (0.07,0.76) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.03 (-0.07,0.14) 0.02 (-0.04,0.07) 0.1 (-0.22,0.41) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.07 (-0.04,0.17) 0.03 (-0.02,0.09) 0.2 (-0.11,0.5) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.19 (0.07,0.3) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.23 (0.13,0.33) 0.12 (0.07,0.17) 0.68 (0.39,0.97) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.12 (0.06,0.18) 0.06 (0.03,0.09) 0.42 (0.22,0.62) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (0.03,0.1) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.18 (0.08,0.29) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.1 (0.04,0.17) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.19 (0.04,0.35) 0.1 (0.02,0.18) 0.56 (0.1,1.02) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 73.9 (62.6,85.3) 38 (32.2,43.9) 268.9 (227.7,310.2) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 10.7 (4.1,17.3) 5.5 (2.1,8.9) 37.8 (14.4,61.3) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-38- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), co

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 1.7 (0.5,2.9) 1.6 (0.4,2.8) 1.3 (0.4,2.3) 6.7 (1.8,11.5Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.004 (0.002,0.007) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.014 (0.005,0.Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 2.8 (-0.6,6.2) 2.6 (-0.6,5.8) 2.1 (-0.5,4.7) 9.3 (-2.2,20.Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.35 (0.08,0.61) 0.42 (0.1,0.74) 0.35 (0.09,0.62) 1.83 (0.45,3.2Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.4 (-0.9,11.6) 2.9 (-1.1,14.5) 2.3 (-0.9,11.5) 11.3 (-4.2,55Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4.1 (0.8,7.4) 5.1 (1,9.3) 4.1 (0.8,7.4) 19.7 (3.7,35.Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 2.6 (-0.1,5.3) 3.2 (-0.1,6.6) 2.6 (-0.1,5.2) 12.5 (-0.2,25Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 1.15 (0.03,2.27) 1.07 (0.03,2.11) 0.9 (0.02,1.77) 4.16 (0.12,8.Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.24 (0.12,0.36) 0.3 (0.15,0.45) 0.24 (0.12,0.36) 1.17 (0.59,1.7Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.06 (0.01,0.1) 0.05 (0.01,0.09) 0.25 (0.04,0.4Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.01 (-0.03,0.06) 0.01 (-0.02,0.05) 0.06 (-0.13,0.Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.03 (-0.01,0.07) 0.02 (-0.01,0.05) 0.11 (-0.06,0.Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.1 (0.04,0.1Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.09 (0.05,0.12) 0.07 (0.04,0.1) 0.38 (0.22,0.5Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.04 (0.02,0.06) 0.03 (0.02,0.05) 0.16 (0.08,0.2Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.02 (0.01,0.04) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.11 (0.05,0.1Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.05 (0.02,0.0Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 0.07 (0.01,0.12) 0.08 (0.01,0.15) 0.07 (0.01,0.12) 0.36 (0.06,0.6Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 24.4 (20.7,28.2) 29.9 (25.3,34.5) 24.7 (20.9,28.4) 120.2 (101.7,13Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3.6 (1.4,5.9) 4.6 (1.7,7.4) 3.7 (1.4,5.9) 17.7 (6.7,28.
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-39- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%

Endpoint CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

89620000 

(6868000,276244000)

12593000 

(965000,38817000)

6041000 

(463000,18622000)

(2

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 137600 (11640,404550) 26400 (2230,77510) 13000 (1100,38130) 3

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 8300 (-1900,18600) 1100 (-300,2500) 400 (-100,900) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 288000 (70800,504700) 33600 (8200,58800) 15500 (3800,27200) 11

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3900 (-1500,19200) 600 (-200,2900) 200 (-100,1100) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 6800 (1300,12500) 1000 (200,1900) 400 (100,700) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4300 (-90,8790) 600 (-10,1320) 200 (0,490) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 3149000 (58000,14863000) 448000 (8000,2115000) 200000 (4000,944000) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 366 (176,584) 88 (42,140) 34 (17,55) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 7526 (1326,13724) 1080 (190,1969) 550 (97,1004) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 2300 (-5100,9750) 300 (-570,1100) 100 (-280,540) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 6600 (-3810,16950) 900 (-510,2250) 400 (-240,1080) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 2400 (940,3940) 200 (90,380) 100 (40,160) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 18900 (10810,26960) 2500 (1420,3530) 1200 (700,1740) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 9800 (5090,14550) 1600 (810,2320) 700 (360,1020) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 2800 (1190,4360) 400 (180,660) 200 (90,330) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 1200 (410,1940) 200 (60,300) 100 (30,130) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 11200 (2050,20360) 1700 (310,3090) 900 (160,1600) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 39000 (33000,45000) 5000 (4000,6000) 3000 (2000,3000) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 7000 (3000,12000) 1000 (0,2000) 0 (0,1000) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-40- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2

Endpoint MD MA NH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

90556000 

(6939000,279129000)

150694000 

(11548000,464498000)

24902000 

(1908000,76758000)

(157

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 183500 (15520,539640) 152900 (12930,449650) 24500 (2070,71920) 3223Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 8500 (-2000,19000) 13300 (-3100,29800) 2200 (-500,5000) 190

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 237900 (58500,417000) 493600 (121400,865100) 84500 (20800,148200) 

(1

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4400 (-1600,21500) 6300 (-2400,31000) 1000 (-400,5100) 85

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 7700 (1400,14000) 11100 (2100,20300) 1800 (300,3300) 14

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 4800 (-100,9850) 7000 (-140,14250) 1100 (-20,2340) 94

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 3422000 (63000,16151000) 5440000 (100000,25676000) 956000 (18000,4514000) 

(13

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 677 (326,1080) 584 (282,932) 98 (47,157) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 7866 (1386,14345) 12395 (2183,22603) 1959 (345,3573) 16

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 1900 (-4050,7750) 3900 (-8600,16440) 600 (-1380,2630) 500Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 6100 (-3540,15750) 11500 (-6660,29660) 1900 (-1090,4830) 147

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 1700 (660,2770) 4000 (1550,6520) 700 (270,1130) 5

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 17600 (10080,25130) 32000 (18340,45730) 5100 (2940,7340) 411Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 11500 (5970,17040) 17100 (8860,25300) 3200 (1650,4710) 228

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 3000 (1280,4700) 4800 (2050,7510) 800 (330,1210) 6

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 1300 (460,2210) 2000 (710,3380) 400 (130,630) 2

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 12500 (2290,22760) 18400 (3360,33400) 2900 (530,5270) 23

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 45000 (38000,52000) 64000 (54000,74000) 10000 (8000,11000) 920Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 8000 (3000,13000) 11000 (4000,19000) 2000 (1000,3000) 16
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-41- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2

Endpoint NY PA RI 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

404392000 

(30989000,1246498000)

260371000 

(19952000,802567000)

26396000 

(2023000,81363000)

(99

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 673700 (56970,1980690) 368500 (31160,1083470) 30200 (2560,88850) 145

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 38300 (-8900,85800) 18600 (-4300,41600) 2200 (-500,4800) 90Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1312500 (322800,2300300) 715100 (176000,1252600) 81600 (20100,143000) 4610

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 18100 (-6700,88600) 8100 (-3000,39700) 1000 (-400,5100) 40

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 31600 (6000,57900) 14200 (2700,25900) 1800 (300,3300) 8

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 20000 (-400,40680) 9000 (-180,18220) 1200 (-20,2350) 5

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older)

14780000 

(273000,69762000)

7976000 

(147000,37644000)

880000 

(16000,4151000) 43300

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 1685 (813,2688) 759 (366,1211) 96 (46,153) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 32758 (5771,59738) 18771 (3307,34229) 2113 (372,3853) 11

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 10400 (-22680,43370) 5900 (-12880,24620) 700 (-1430,2740) 40Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 30200 (-17500,77930) 16900 (-9810,43660) 1800 (-1070,4770) 11Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 11300 (4350,18290) 5200 (1990,8380) 700 (250,1060) 3Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 84500 (48340,120560) 47900 (27410,68350) 5300 (3040,7590) 30

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 45800 (23770,67910) 23200 (12020,34330) 2800 (1430,4080) 16

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 12700 (5390,19720) 7100 (3030,11080) 800 (330,1220) 5

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 5500 (1890,9020) 2800 (970,4610) 300 (110,540) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 48600 (8870,88310) 27900 (5100,50730) 3200 (580,5720) 17

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 170000 (144000,196000) 70000 (59000,81000) 9000 (8000,10000) 40

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 33000 (13000,54000) 15000 (6000,24000) 2000 (1000,3000) 1
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-42- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2

Endpoint AL GA KY 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

6387600 

(489500,19689200)

18476400 

(1415800,56951300)

9660800 

(740300,29778300)

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 15900 (1300,46800) 55100 (4700,161900) 19600 (1700,57800) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 500 (-120,1120) 2210 (-510,4940) 790 (-180,1780) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 20900 (5100,36700) 68800 (16900,120600) 24200 (6000,42500) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 360 (-140,1780) 1660 (-620,8140) 420 (-160,2080) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 630 (120,1160) 2900 (550,5320) 740 (140,1360) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 400 (-10,820) 1840 (-40,3740) 470 (-10,960) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 200100 (3700,944800) 764200 (14100,3607500) 320900 (5900,1514900) 3

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 60 (30,90) 260 (120,410) 70 (30,110) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 720 (130,1310) 2100 (370,3830) 800 (140,1470) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 170 (-370,710) 510 (-1110,2120) 190 (-430,810) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 570 (-330,1470) 1720 (-990,4430) 660 (-380,1700) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 130 (50,220) 600 (230,970) 160 (60,260) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1630 (930,2320) 4830 (2760,6890) 1850 (1060,2640) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 930 (480,1370) 3580 (1860,5300) 1080 (560,1590) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 280 (120,430) 830 (350,1300) 320 (140,500) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 110 (40,180) 410 (140,670) 130 (40,210) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 1140 (210,2060) 3310 (600,6020) 1270 (230,2310) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 2700 (2200,3100) 13200 (11200,15300) 3200 (2700,3700) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 700 (300,1100) 3100 (1200,5000) 800 (300,1300) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-43- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2

Endpoint NC SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

46962100 

(3598600,144755400)

18355000 

(1406500,56577300)

10512100 

(805500,32402300)

6430960

(4927900,1982

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 119100 (10100,350300) 36500 (3100,107400) 20500 (1700,60300) 134800 (11400,

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 4410 (-1020,9870) 1420 (-330,3170) 820 (-190,1830) 6530 (-1510,1Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 152300 (37400,267100) 63500 (15600,111300) 32600 (8000,57200) 195200 (48000,

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3070 (-1140,15080) 1070 (-400,5260) 550 (-210,2710) 3770 (-1410,1

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 5370 (1020,9850) 1880 (350,3440) 960 (180,1770) 6610 (1250,1Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3400 (-70,6920) 1190 (-20,2420) 610 (-10,1240) 4180 (-80,85Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 1644800 (30400,7764900) 584500 (10800,2759400) 335100 (6200,1582100) 2582300 (47700,12189

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 470 (230,750) 170 (80,260) 80 (40,140) 590 (280,9

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 5180 (910,9450) 2180 (380,3970) 1120 (200,2040) 6350 (1120,1

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 1230 (-2690,5140) 520 (-1140,2170) 270 (-590,1120) 1510 (-3310,6Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 4090 (-2370,10560) 1740 (-1010,4480) 900 (-520,2320) 5080 (-2940,1

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 1110 (430,1800) 410 (160,660) 210 (80,340) 1450 (560,2

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 11710 (6700,16710) 4950 (2830,7060) 2550 (1460,3640) 14420 (8250,2Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 6930 (3590,10270) 2820 (1460,4170) 1440 (750,2140) 9490 (4920,1Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 2000 (850,3120) 850 (360,1320) 440 (190,680) 2490 (1060,3Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 800 (280,1320) 330 (110,540) 170 (60,280) 1090 (380,1

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 8220 (1500,14940) 3450 (630,6270) 1770 (320,3210) 10040 (1830,1Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 23000 (19400,26500) 8000 (6800,9200) 4200 (3600,4900) 35400 (30000,

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 5600 (2100,9100) 2000 (800,3300) 1000 (400,1700) 7100 (2700,1
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-44- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to BART, Mean (95%CI), 2

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

10753000 

(824000,33145000)

10145000 

(777000,31269000)

8307000 

(637000,25605000)

4201100

(3219000,1294

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 27950 (2360,82180) 25400 (2150,74680) 20020 (1690,58870) 85560 (7240,2Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1040 (-240,2330) 970 (-220,2170) 790 (-180,1760) 3500 (-810,

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 22780 (5590,39950) 27910 (6860,48960) 23270 (5720,40820) 120760 (29670

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 370 (-140,1800) 460 (-170,2250) 360 (-140,1780) 1760 (-660,

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 640 (120,1180) 800 (150,1470) 640 (120,1170) 3080 (580,5

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 410 (-10,830) 510 (-10,1030) 400 (-10,820) 1950 (-40,3Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 388550 (7170,1834300) 361150 (6670,1704940) 303120 (5590,1431020) 140361

(25910,6626

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 70 (30,110) 80 (40,130) 70 (30,110) 320 (160,5Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 730 (130,1340) 860 (150,1570) 730 (130,1330) 3830 (680,6

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 170 (-380,720) 210 (-450,870) 170 (-380,720) 910 (-2000,Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 530 (-310,1380) 660 (-380,1690) 540 (-310,1400) 2870 (-1660

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 150 (60,250) 190 (70,310) 160 (60,250) 760 (290,1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1530 (870,2180) 1840 (1050,2620) 1530 (880,2190) 8100 (4640,1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 700 (360,1040) 890 (460,1320) 740 (380,1090) 3720 (1930,

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 270 (110,420) 330 (140,510) 270 (120,420) 1440 (610,2

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 110 (40,180) 140 (50,230) 110 (40,190) 570 (200,9

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 1220 (220,2220) 1430 (260,2600) 1210 (220,2200) 6370 (1160,1Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 3350 (2830,3860) 3650 (3090,4210) 3410 (2890,3930) 15010 (12700

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 680 (260,1110) 850 (320,1390) 690 (260,1120) 3310 (1260,
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-45- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to all four regional haze programs, 

Endpoint CT DE DC ME 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 98 (27,169) 29 (8,49) 10 (3,17) 36 (10,63) 154 Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.06 (0.02,0.09) 0.02 (0.01,0.03) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.31 Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 152 (-36,338) 41 (-10,91) 11 (-3,24) 40 (-9,90) 236 Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 32 (8,56) 6 (1,10) 2 (1,4) 11 (3,20) 35 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 185 (-69,910) 44 (-16,216) 14 (-5,70) 46 (-17,226) 273 (-Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 325 (62,587) 77 (15,139) 25 (5,45) 80 (15,146) 478 Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 205 (-4.1,413.9) 49 (-1,98.2) 16 (-0.3,31.8) 51 (-1,102.6) 302 Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 64 (1.8,126.5) 19 (0.5,36.6) 6 (0.2,12.2) 22 (0.6,44.1) 106 (Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 10 (5,14.4) 4 (1.9,5.5) 1 (0.6,1.8) 2 (1.2,3.6) 23 (Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 3.6 (0.6,6.6) 0.9 (0.2,1.5) 0.4 (0.1,0.7) 1.2 (0.2,2.2) 5 (Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 1.1 (-2.5,4.7) 0.2 (-0.5,0.9) 0.1 (-0.2,0.4) 0.4 (-0.9,1.6) 1.2 Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1.9 (-1.1,4.8) 0.4 (-0.2,1) 0.2 (-0.1,0.4) 0.7 (-0.4,1.8) 2.3 Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 2.3 (0.9,3.7) 0.4 (0.1,0.6) 0.1 (0,0.2) 0.7 (0.3,1.1) 2.1 Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 6.6 (3.8,9.4) 1.4 (0.8,2) 0.6 (0.3,0.8) 2.3 (1.3,3.3) 8.1 (Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 3.2 (1.6,4.7) 0.8 (0.4,1.2) 0.3 (0.2,0.5) 1.1 (0.6,1.7) 4.9 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1.5 (0.6,2.4) 0.4 (0.2,0.6) 0.2 (0.1,0.2) 0.6 (0.2,0.9) 2.2 Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.8 (0.3,1.3) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.3 (0.1,0.5) 1.2 Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 4.6 (0.8,8.3) 1.1 (0.2,2.1) 0.5 (0.1,0.9) 1.5 (0.3,2.8) 6.8 (Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1892 (1603,2182) 479 (406,552) 194 (165,224) 571 (484,659) 3021 (Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 282 (109,454) 68 (26,109) 21 (8,34) 72 (28,116) 423 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-46- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to all four regional haze programs, Mean 

Endpoint NH NJ NY PA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 26 (7,44) 293 (80,505) 521 (143,899) 371 (102,640) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.03 (0.01,0.04) 0.46 (0.18,0.73) 0.89 (0.35,1.43) 0.52 (0.2,0.83) 0Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 39 (-9,86) 438 (-103,971) 835 (-196,1849) 431 (-101,957) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 8 (2,14) 89 (22,155) 165 (41,287) 100 (25,173) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 41 (-15,201) 501 (-188,2461) 979 (-367,4809) 472 (-177,2323) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 72 (14,130) 877 (167,1587) 1714 (326,3102) 827 (157,1497) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 45 (-0.9,91.4) 554 (-11.1,1118.8) 1084 (-21.7,2186.6) 523 (-10.5,1055.7) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 18 (0.5,36.3) 194 (5.4,380.8) 359 (10,705.8) 208 (5.8,409) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 2 (1.1,3.2) 26 (13.5,39.1) 51 (26.2,75.8) 25 (12.7,36.9) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.8 (0.1,1.4) 9.7 (1.7,17.7) 18 (3.2,32.7) 11.5 (2,20.9) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.3 (-0.6,1.1) 3.1 (-6.7,12.8) 5.7 (-12.5,23.8) 3.6 (-7.9,15) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (-0.3,1.1) 5.3 (-3,13.5) 9.8 (-5.7,25.3) 6.1 (-3.5,15.7) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.5 (0.2,0.9) 6.4 (2.5,10.3) 12.3 (4.7,19.8) 6.1 (2.3,9.8) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1.5 (0.8,2.1) 18 (10.3,25.7) 33.4 (19.1,47.7) 21 (12,30) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.9 (0.4,1.3) 9 (4.7,13.4) 16.8 (8.7,24.9) 9.4 (4.9,13.9) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (0.2,0.5) 4.2 (1.8,6.6) 7.9 (3.4,12.3) 4.9 (2.1,7.7) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 2.3 (0.8,3.8) 4.3 (1.5,7) 2.4 (0.8,4) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 1 (0.2,1.8) 12.3 (2.2,22.3) 22.7 (4.2,41.2) 14.5 (2.7,26.4) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 468 (397,540) 5430 (4599,6261) 10378 (8790,11965) 5186 (4392,5979) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 64 (24,103) 775 (298,1248) 1495 (574,2405) 725 (278,1167) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-47- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to all four regional haze programs, Mean 

Endpoint AL GA KY MS 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 0.6 (0.2,1) 2 (0.5,3.4) 124 (34.1,213.8) 2.4 (0.7,4.1) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,0) 0.01 (0,0.01) 0.26 (0.1,0.42) 0.01 (0,0.01) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 1 (-0.2,2.1) 3.5 (-0.8,7.9) 172.9 (-40.5,383.3) 3.9 (-0.9,8.8) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1.5 (0.4,2.7) 4.6 (1.1,8) 32.2 (8,55.8) 1.1 (0.3,1.9) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 11.2 (-4.2,55) 47.4 (-17.8,232.9) 239.8 (-89.9,1177.1) 9.7 (-3.6,47.7) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 19.6 (3.7,35.5) 83 (15.8,150.2) 420.2 (79.9,760) 17 (3.2,30.7) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 12.4 (-0.2,25) 52.5 (-1.1,105.9) 265.5 (-5.3,535.6) 10.7 (-0.2,21.7) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 0.4 (0,0.8) 1.5 (0,2.9) 77.4 (2.2,152.3) 1.5 (0,2.9) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 1 (0.5,1.4) 4.1 (2.1,6.1) 20.9 (10.7,31) 0.8 (0.4,1.2) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2 (0,0.4) 0.6 (0.1,1.1) 4.8 (0.8,8.7) 0.2 (0,0.3) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.06 (-0.12,0.23) 0.15 (-0.32,0.61) 1.15 (-2.53,4.8) 0.04 (-0.08,0.16Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.11 (-0.06,0.28) 0.29 (-0.17,0.75) 2.28 (-1.33,5.88) 0.07 (-0.04,0.19Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) 0.34 (0.13,0.55) 1.83 (0.7,2.95) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (0.2,0.5) 1 (0.6,1.4) 7.8 (4.5,11.2) 0.3 (0.1,0.4) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.2 (0.1,0.3) 0.7 (0.4,1) 4.1 (2.1,6.1) 0.1 (0.1,0.2) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.1 (0.04,0.16) 0.27 (0.12,0.43) 2.15 (0.92,3.34) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.17 (0.06,0.28) 1.04 (0.36,1.73) 0.04 (0.01,0.06) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) 0.32 (0.06,0.57) 0.82 (0.15,1.49) 6.43 (1.18,11.67) 0.21 (0.04,0.38) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 116.9 (99,134.7) 491 (415.8,566.1) 2561.2 (2169.6,2952.4) 92.1 (78,106.2) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 17.5 (6.7,28.1) 73.1 (28.1,117.7) 370.6 (142.8,595.2) 15.3 (5.9,24.7) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-48- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to all four regional haze programs, Mean 

Endpoint SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 16.7 (4.6,28.8) 60.4 (16.6,104.1) 85.1 (23.4,146.8) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.03 (0.01,0.05) 0.15 (0.06,0.24) 0.17 (0.07,0.27) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 21.9 (-5.1,48.8) 87 (-20.2,193.6) 139.5 (-32.4,310.4) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 5.7 (1.4,10) 17.9 (4.4,31.1) 25.9 (6.4,45.1) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 41.4 (-15.5,203.7) 141.9 (-53.2,697.3) 207.7 (-77.8,1021) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 72.5 (13.8,131.2) 248.5 (47.2,449.6) 363.7 (69.1,658) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 45.8 (-0.9,92.5) 157.1 (-3.1,317) 229.9 (-4.6,464) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 9.9 (0.3,19.5) 37.7 (1,74.2) 62.6 (1.7,123.4) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 3.6 (1.8,5.3) 12.2 (6.2,18.1) 18.1 (9.2,26.8) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.9 (0.2,1.6) 2.6 (0.5,4.8) 3.7 (0.7,6.7) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2 (-0.45,0.85) 0.63 (-1.38,2.63) 0.88 (-1.93,3.68) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.4 (-0.23,1.04) 1.25 (-0.73,3.22) 1.74 (-1.01,4.48) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.31 (0.12,0.51) 1.06 (0.41,1.71) 1.6 (0.62,2.59) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) 1.4 (0.8,2) 4.3 (2.5,6.2) 6 (3.5,8.6) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) 0.7 (0.4,1.1) 2.4 (1.2,3.6) 3.6 (1.9,5.4) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.38 (0.16,0.59) 1.17 (0.5,1.83) 1.64 (0.7,2.55) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.18 (0.06,0.31) 0.59 (0.21,0.98) 0.89 (0.31,1.47) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years and above) 1.16 (0.21,2.11) 3.54 (0.65,6.42) 4.98 (0.91,9.04) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 442.7 (374.9,510.5) 1494.4 (1265.7,1722.9) 2334.1 (1976.8,2691.2) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 64.2 (24.6,103.5) 218.3 (83.8,351.4) 322.1 (123.5,518.8) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-49- Avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 due to all four regional haze programs, Mean 

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -1.3 (-0.4,-2.3) 103.6 (28.5,178.6) 29.8 (8.2,51.5) 237.5 (65.2,409Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0 (0,-0.1) 0.2 (0.1,0.4) 0.1 (0,0.1) 0.5 (0.2,0.8) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -19 (-4,-42) 163 (-38,361) 46 (-11,102) 347 (-81,772) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) -13 (-3,-23) 25 (6,43) -3 (-1,-5) 57 (14,99) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -109 (-540,41) 170 (-64,834) -19 (-96,7) 373 (-140,1834Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -191 (-36,-345) 298 (57,539) -34 (-6,-61) 654 (124,1183Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -121 (2,-244) 188 (-4,380) -21 (0,-43) 413 (-8,834) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -5 (0,-9) 68 (2,135) 20 (1,39) 152 (4,300) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) -12 (-6,-17) 17 (9,25) -2 (-1,-3) 38 (20,57) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) -1.6 (-0.3,-3) 3.4 (0.6,6.1) -0.3 (-0.1,-0.6) 7.8 (1.4,14.2) Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) -0.4 (0.8,-1.6) 0.8 (-1.8,3.4) -0.1 (0.2,-0.3) 1.9 (-4.1,7.8) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -0.7 (0.4,-1.8) 1.5 (-0.9,3.9) -0.1 (0.1,-0.4) 3.5 (-2,8.9) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) -0.9 (-0.3,-1.5) 1.4 (0.5,2.3) -0.1 (-0.1,-0.2) 3.2 (1.2,5.1) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older) -2.5 (-1.4,-3.5) 5.2 (3,7.4) -0.5 (-0.3,-0.7) 11.9 (6.8,17) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years) -1.3 (-0.6,-1.9) 2.4 (1.2,3.5) -0.2 (-0.1,-0.4) 5.3 (2.8,7.9) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -0.7 (-1.1,-0.3) 1.5 (0.6,2.3) -0.1 (-0.2,-0.1) 3.3 (1.4,5.2) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) -0.4 (-0.1,-0.7) 0.8 (0.3,1.3) -0.1 (0,-0.1) 1.7 (0.6,2.9) Hospital Admissions- Pneumonia (Adults 65 years andabove) -2.3 (-0.4,-4.3) 4.8 (0.9,8.6) -0.5 (-0.1,-0.8) 11 (2,20) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) -1082 (-916,-1249) 1750.7 (1483,2018) -182 (-154,-211) 3973 (3366,458Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) -176 (-66,-287) 259 (100,416) -29 (-11,-48) 578 (222,930
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-50- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$ 

Endpoint CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 617654000 (47353000,1903854000) 180054000 (13806000,554998000) 63508000 (4868000,195757000) 

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 950200 (80400,2793200) 370300 (31300,1088400) 136500 (11500,401300) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 57000 (-13300,127000) 15300 (-3600,34100) 4000 (-900,9000) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 2106200 (524600,3659700) 395400 (98400,687400) 155400 (38600,270600) 7

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 28900 (-10800,141700) 6900 (-2600,33600) 2200 (-800,10900) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 50700 (9600,92900) 12000 (2300,22000) 3900 (700,7100) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 32100 (-600,65200) 7600 (-200,15500) 2500 (0,5000) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 21711000 (403000,102456000) 6291000 (117000,29687000) 2087000 (39000,9848000) 75Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 2700 (1300,4300) 1000 (500,1600) 300 (200,500) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 55800 (9900,101700) 13000 (2300,23700) 5600 (1000,10200) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 17300 (-38000,72300) 3200 (-6900,13200) 1300 (-2900,5400) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 48800 (-28300,125800) 10500 (-6100,27100) 4200 (-2500,10900) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 18100 (7000,29300) 2800 (1100,4400) 1000 (400,1600) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

140300 (80400,200300) 29800 (17100,42600) 12300 (7100,17600) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

72900 (37800,107900) 18600 (9700,27600) 7000 (3600,10300) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 20800 (8900,32400) 5100 (2200,7900) 2100 (900,3300) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 8700 (3000,14400) 2200 (800,3600) 800 (300,1300) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 83100 (15200,150700) 20500 (3800,37200) 8900 (1600,16200) Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 292000 (247000,336000) 63000 (53000,72000) 29000 (24000,33000) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 53000 (20000,86000) 13000 (5000,21000) 4000 (2000,6000) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-51-Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint MD MA NH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 967523000 (74174000,2982292000) 1203805000 (92297000,3710604000) 162268000 (12438000,500176000) 

(14

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 1953900 (165200,5743800) 1222800 (103400,3594400) 160500 (13600,471800) 286Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 88100 (-20500,196400) 105400 (-24600,234800) 14500 (-3400,32400) 16

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 2303000 (573200,4003700) 3904500 (972200,6785700) 513800 (127300,895900) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 42600 (-15900,208500) 50700 (-18900,248000) 6400 (-2400,31300) 7

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 74600 (14100,136700) 88800 (16800,162600) 11200 (2100,20500) 13Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 47200 (-900,95900) 56100 (-1100,114100) 7100 (-100,14400) 8Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 35634000 (660000,168153000) 43546000 (808000,205493000) 6226000 (115000,29380000) 

(

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 6500 (3200,10400) 4600 (2300,7400) 600 (300,1000) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 77700 (13700,141500) 99400 (17500,181000) 12000 (2100,21900) 14

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 18200 (-40100,76400) 31500 (-69200,131800) 3800 (-8400,16100) 47Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 60200 (-34900,155200) 92400 (-53600,238100) 11500 (-6700,29600) 13

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 16600 (6400,26800) 32500 (12500,52400) 4300 (1600,6900) 5

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

173800 (99600,248100) 257300 (147400,367200) 31500 (18100,45000) 38

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

112100 (58200,166100) 137000 (71100,202900) 19500 (10100,28900) 20

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 29700 (12700,46300) 38700 (16500,60300) 4800 (2000,7400) 5Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 13000 (4500,21500) 16400 (5700,27100) 2300 (800,3800) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 123600 (22600,224400) 147300 (27000,267200) 17800 (3200,32200) 22

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 438000 (371000,505000) 520000 (441000,600000) 61000 (52000,71000) 84

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 79000 (30000,129000) 90000 (35000,147000) 12000 (5000,19000) 14
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-52- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint NY PA RI 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

3285020000 

(251872000,10125727000)

2337684000 

(179210000,7205678000)

279698000 

(21449000,862137000)

(4

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 5617700 (475100,16513100) 3249400 (274800,9552200) 313600 (26500,921800) 6Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 312100 (-72900,694800) 161300 (-37600,359500) 22500 (-5300,50100) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 10895400 (2711500,18941300) 6566200 (1630900,11430300) 834700 (208500,1447300) 18

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 152900 (-57100,748400) 73800 (-27500,361500) 10800 (-4000,53000) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 267900 (50700,490600) 129300 (24500,236800) 19000 (3600,34800) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 169300 (-3400,344300) 81700 (-1600,166200) 12000 (-200,24400) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 121162000 (2248000,571776000) 70162000 (1300000,331084000) 9244000 (172000,43625000) 193

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 14200 (6900,22600) 6900 (3300,11000) 1000 (500,1600) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 276000 (48700,502700) 175200 (30900,319200) 22100 (3900,40300) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 87200 (-191700,365100) 54800 (-120300,229300) 6800 (-15100,28700) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 254800 (-147800,656500) 157700 (-91400,406300) 19400 (-11200,49800) 4

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 96300 (37000,155500) 47700 (18300,76900) 6800 (2600,11000) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

712300 (407900,1016400) 446600 (255700,637300) 55700 (31900,79400) 1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

385400 (200000,570700) 213600 (110800,316300) 28600 (14800,42300) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 106700 (45500,166200) 66300 (28300,103300) 8200 (3500,12700) Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 45800 (15900,75600) 25700 (8900,42400) 3400 (1200,5600) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 409200 (74900,742500) 260400 (47600,472700) 32900 (6000,59700) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 1454000 (1232000,1676000) 646000 (547000,745000) 93000 (79000,107000) 1Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 280000 (107000,454000) 136000 (52000,220000) 19000 (7000,31000) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-53- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5 

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint AL GA KY 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 3829000 (293000,11802000) 12578000 (964000,38771000) 781527000 (59918000,2408975000) 

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 4900 (400,14300) 31400 (2700,92200) 1635600 (138300,4807800) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 400 (-100,800) 1300 (-300,3000) 64700 (-15100,144000) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 101500 (25200,176500) 301200 (74900,524000) 2121100 (530100,3677000) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1700 (-700,8600) 7400 (-2800,36300) 37500 (-14000,183200) 

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 3100 (600,5600) 13000 (2500,23800) 65600 (12400,120200) Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 1900 (0,3900) 8200 (-200,16700) 41500 (-800,84300) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 141600 (2600,668300) 498300 (9200,2351800) 26131800 (484600,123316200) 4

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 300 (100,400) 1100 (600,1800) 5800 (2800,9300) 

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 3500 (600,6500) 9300 (1600,16900) 72400 (12800,131900) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 800 (-1900,3500) 2200 (-4900,9300) 17500 (-38400,73100) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 2800 (-1600,7300) 7600 (-4400,19600) 59000 (-34200,152000) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 700 (300,1000) 2700 (1000,4300) 14200 (5500,22900) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

8100 (4600,11500) 21400 (12200,30500) 165800 (95000,236600) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

4500 (2400,6700) 16000 (8300,23700) 94300 (48900,139600) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1400 (600,2200) 3700 (1600,5700) 28700 (12200,44700) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 500 (200,900) 1800 (600,3000) 11100 (3900,18300) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 5600 (1000,10200) 14700 (2700,26600) 114500 (21000,207700) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 13000 (11000,15000) 60000 (51000,69000) 278000 (236000,321000) 

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 3000 (1000,5000) 14000 (5000,22000) 69000 (27000,112000) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table A-54- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint NC SC TN VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older)

305459000 (23408000,941548000) 105085000 (8053000,323914000) 380250000 (29141000,1172086000) 536326000 (41103000,16531

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 763100 (64500,2243700) 212000 (17900,623400) 927600 (78400,2727100) 1057700 (89400,3

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 28100 (-6500,62900) 8200 (-1900,18300) 32500 (-7500,72700) 52200 (-12100,1Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 1039300 (256900,1815300) 377600 (93500,658900) 1177900 (292800,2049400) 1707000 (423600,2

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 20500 (-7600,100500) 6500 (-2400,31700) 22200 (-8300,108500) 32400 (-12100,15

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 35900 (6800,65800) 11300 (2100,20800) 38800 (7300,71100) 56800 (10800,10Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 22700 (-500,46200) 7200 (-100,14600) 24500 (-500,49900) 35900 (-700,73

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 10614400 (196100,50094600) 3333300 (61600,15733400) 12714400 (235100,59992100) 21135200 (390900,99722

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) 3100 (1500,5000) 1000 (500,1600) 3400 (1600,5400) 5000 (2400,80

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 36000 (6300,65600) 13000 (2300,23800) 39900 (7000,72800) 56500 (10000,10Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 8500 (-18700,35600) 3100 (-6800,13000) 9600 (-21000,40100) 13400 (-29500,5Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 28300 (-16400,73000) 10400 (-6000,26800) 32400 (-18800,83400) 45200 (-26200,1

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 7400 (2900,12000) 2400 (900,3900) 8200 (3200,13300) 12600 (4800,20

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

81100 (46500,115800) 29600 (17000,42300) 91500 (52400,130500) 128400 (73500,1

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

46900 (24300,69500) 16900 (8800,25100) 54700 (28400,81000) 83100 (43100,12

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 13900 (5900,21600) 5100 (2200,7900) 15700 (6700,24500) 22100 (9400,34

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 5400 (1900,8900) 2000 (700,3200) 6300 (2200,10400) 9600 (3300,15Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 57100 (10400,103800) 20700 (3800,37500) 63000 (11500,114400) 89400 (16400,16Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 154000 (130000,177000) 48000 (41000,55000) 167000 (141000,192000) 307000 (260000,3

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 37000 (14000,61000) 12000 (5000,20000) 41000 (16000,66000) 60000 (23000,9
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

 Table A-55- Value of avoided incidences attributed to reduced PM2.5

due to all four regional haze programs, Mean (95%CI), 2000$, continued 

Endpoint IL IN MI OH 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) -8361000 (-25774000,-636000) 652657000 (50032000,2011750000) 188019000 (14409000,579553000) 149609800

(114684000,46115

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) -223600 (-657600,-18900) 1569600 (132700,4614300) 472800 (40000,1390200) 3300700 (279100,9Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) -6900 (-15600,1600) 60900 (-14200,135700) 17100 (-4000,38300) 130000 (-30200,2

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) -864400 (-1542300,-207000) 1622000 (406100,2807900) -176600 (-323600,-40600) 3753600 (934300,6

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -17000 (-84100,6300) 26500 (-9900,129800) -3000 (-15000,1100) 58300 (-21800,28Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -29800 (-54600,-5600) 46500 (8800,85200) -5200 (-9600,-1000) 102100 (19300,1

Asthma Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) -18900 (-38400,400) 29400 (-600,59800) -3300 (-6800,100) 64600 (-1300,13Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) -1587000 (-7510600,-29100) 23111400 (428200,109057600) 6724900 (124300,31734500) 51456900 (953200,242810

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 yearsand younger) -3200 (-5200,-1500) 4800 (2300,7600) -500 (-900,-300) 10700 (5200,17

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) -25200 (-46100,-4400) 51200 (9000,93300) -4900 (-9000,-900) 118800 (21000,2

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) -6000 (-25000,12900) 12400 (-27300,51800) -1200 (-4900,2500) 28400 (-62400,1

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -18500 (-47900,10700) 39500 (-23000,101800) -3700 (-9700,2100) 89700 (-52000,23Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) -7100 (-11400,-2700) 11000 (4200,17700) -1200 (-1900,-400) 24900 (9600,40

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

-52700 (-75200,-30100) 110400 (63200,157500) -10400 (-14800,-5900) 252600 (144700,3

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

-28600 (-42400,-14800) 53600 (27800,79400) -5500 (-8100,-2800) 121200 (62900,1

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) -9300 (-14500,-4000) 19800 (8400,30800) -1900 (-2900,-800) 44900 (19200,7

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) -4300 (-7200,-1500) 8100 (2800,13400) -900 (-1400,-300) 18500 (6400,30

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) -42100 (-76700,-7600) 85100 (15600,154200) -8200 (-15100,-1500) 197400 (36100,3

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) -148000 (-171000,-125000) 214000 (181000,247000) -25000 (-29000,-21000) 496000 (420000,5

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) -33000 (-54000,-12000) 49000 (19000,79000) -5000 (-9000,-2000) 108000 (41000,1
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Appendix B: State Level Benefits for CAIR+ 

CAIR+ Reductions in Ozone 

Table B-1- Reduced incidences of morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% 

ER Visits, Asthma

Hospital Admissions >64 

Years, Pneumonia and 

COPD added

Hospital Admission All 

Respiratory >64 years

Hospital Admissions 

Resp <2 Years School Loss Days 

CT 2 (0.6, 5.1) 14 (8, 19) 12 (0, 35) 7 (3, 11) 3350 (809, 8488) 

DE 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) 1 (0, 1) 1 (0, 1) 2 (1, 2) 642 (159, 1344) 

DC 1.1 (0.3, 3.3) 9 (5, 13) 8 (0, 23) 4 (2, 6) 1438 (344, 3819) 

ME 0.5 (0.2, 1.5) 5 (3, 7) 4 (0, 12) 2 (1, 3) 865 (213, 1923) 

MD 9.5 (2.8, 23.3) 61 (35, 85) 54 (-1, 150) 36 (16, 56) 14531 (3477, 38691) 

MA 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) -6 (-9, -4) -6 (-16, 0) 4 (2, 6) 1625 (438, 2897) 

NH 0.5 (0.2, 1) 3 (1, 4) 2 (0, 6) 2 (1, 3) 893 (220, 1993) 

NJ 3.5 (1.1, 6.2) 10 (6, 15) 9 (0, 26) 13 (6, 21) 6221 (1541, 13264) 

NY 11.9 (3.5, 28.6) 75 (42, 105) 69 (-2, 191) 39 (17, 61) 19439 (4712, 47998) 

PA 6.2 (1.9, 10.9) 24 (14, 34) 22 (-1, 62) 22 (10, 35) 10681 (2650, 22436) 

RI 0.4 (0.1, 0.7) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 1 (1, 2) 712 (180, 1308) 

VT 0.2 (0.1, 0.7) 2 (1, 3) 2 (0, 5) 1 (0, 1) 326 (80, 761) 

VA 10.5 (3.1, 23.5) 62 (37, 87) 55 (-1, 154) 42 (18, 65) 16470 (3996, 40437) 

OTR Total 47.4 (13.8, 106.5) 259 (144, 368) 234 (-21, 665) 174 (75, 272) 77191 (18819, 185358) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-2- Reduced incidences of mortality due to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% 

Mortality Bell 2004 Mortality Bell 2005 Mortality Huang 2005 Mortality Ito 2005 Mor

CT 1.3 (0.4, 2.1) 2.9 (0, 5.7) 2.2 (0.8, 3.6) 2.7 (1.8, 3.6) 2

DE 0.1 (0, 0.1) 0.1 (0, 0.3) 0.1 (0, 0.2) 0.6 (0.4, 0.8) 0

DC 0.9 (0.3, 1.5) 2 (0, 4.1) 1.4 (0.5, 2.2) 1.7 (1.1, 2.2) 

ME 0.5 (0.2, 0.8) 1 (0, 2.1) 0.7 (0.3, 1.2) 1 (0.7, 1.4) 

MD 5.8 (1.9, 9.6) 13.1 (0, 26.2) 9.1 (3.5, 14.8) 11.8 (8, 15.6) 1

MA -0.6 (-0.2, -1) -1.3 (0, -2.6) -0.9 (-0.4, -1.5) 1.7 (1.2, 2.3) 

NH 0.3 (0.1, 0.4) 0.6 (0, 1.1) 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) 0.8 (0.5, 1) 

NJ 1 (0.3, 1.6) 2.1 (0, 4.2) 1.6 (0.6, 2.6) 5.6 (3.8, 7.4) 

NY 7.2 (2.4, 12) 16.2 (0, 32.3) 13.3 (5, 21.5) 16.9 (11.4, 22.4) 1

PA 2.3 (0.8, 3.8) 5 (0, 10) 4.3 (1.6, 7) 12.5 (8.4, 16.6) 13

RI 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.7 (0.5, 0.9) 0

VT 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) 0.4 (0, 0.8) 0.3 (0.1, 0.5) 0.4 (0.2, 0.5) 0

VA 5.7 (1.9, 9.4) 12.9 (0, 25.7) 9.6 (3.7, 15.6) 14.3 (9.6, 18.9) 15

OTR Total 24.4 (8.2, 40.6) 55 (0, 110) 42.2 (16, 68.3) 70.7 (47.8, 93.6) 7

Table B-3- Value of reduced incidences of morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95

ER Visits, Asthma

Hospital Admissions >64 Years, 

Pneumonia and COPD added

Hospital Admission All 

Respiratory >64 years

Hospital Admissions Resp 

<2 Years School Loss Days 

CT 600 (200, 1300) 186400 (105700, 260700) 233200 (-5600, 649400) 54600 (23500, 85600) 251000 (61000, 637000

DE 100 (0, 200) 8200 (4700, 11500) 9700 (-200, 26800) 12400 (5400, 19500) 48000 (12000, 101000

DC 300 (100, 900) 123800 (70900, 173900) 151700 (-3700, 421100) 28800 (12400, 45000) 108000 (26000, 286000

ME 200 (0, 400) 64200 (37400, 89300) 79800 (-1900, 222200) 13900 (6000, 21800) 65000 (16000, 144000

MD 2700 (700, 6100) 824800 (472400, 1150600) 1005200 (-24200, 2795900) 282500 (121900, 442300) 1090000 (261000, 29020

MA 200 (0, 300) -85500 (-119700, -50200) -103700 (-290500, 2500) 27900 (12100, 43600) 122000 (33000, 217000

NH 100 (0, 300) 34200 (19500, 48100) 42700 (-1000, 119000) 14600 (6300, 23000) 67000 (16000, 149000

NJ 1000 (300, 1800) 142100 (82500, 198300) 177100 (-4300, 491700) 103900 (44800, 162700) 467000 (116000, 99500

NY 3300 (900, 7600) 1020400 (571400, 1428900) 1273000 (-30600, 3544300) 306300 (132000, 480200) 1458000 (353000, 36000

PA 1700 (500, 3300) 326100 (191800, 454700) 409300 (-9900, 1136900) 172600 (74500, 270200) 801000 (199000, 168300

RI 100 (0, 200) 400 (200, 500) 400 (0, 1000) 11500 (5000, 18000) 53000 (14000, 98000) 

VT 100 (0, 200) 27000 (15900, 38000) 33500 (-800, 93400) 5000 (2200, 7900) 24000 (6000, 57000) 

VA 3000 (800, 6300) 844100 (497700, 1178100) 1022900 (-24700, 2842500) 324400 (140200, 507400) 1235000 (300000, 30330

OTR 

Total 13300 (3600, 28900) 3516400 (1950400, 4982300) 4334800 (-397400, 12346700) 1358400 (586400, 2127100) 5789000 (1411000, 13902
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-4- Value of reduced incidences of mortality due to CAIR+ reductions in ozone, Mean (95% 

Mortality Bell 2004 Mortality Bell 2005 Mortality Huang 2005 Mortality Ito 2005 

CT 7998000 (653000, 24054000) 17971000 (-9000, 60292000) 13983000 (1177000, 41247000) 17259000 (1616000, 46980000) 

DE 347000 (28000, 1045000) 805000 (0, 2700000) 633000 (53000, 1866000) 3606000 (337000, 9814000) 

DC 5644000 (461000, 16972000) 12903000 (-7000, 43282000) 8599000 (724000, 25360000) 10548000 (987000, 28713000) 

ME 2901000 (237000, 8726000) 6514000 (-3000, 21853000) 4687000 (395000, 13824000) 6456000 (604000, 17573000) 

MD 36277000 (2960000, 109097000) 82569000 (-43000, 276996000) 57533000 (4845000, 169694000) 74519000 (6975000, 202843000) 

MA -3672000 (-11045000, -300000) -8228000 (-27614000, 4000) -5954000 (-17569000, -501000) 10787000 (1010000, 29364000) 

NH 1578000 (129000, 4746000) 3544000 (-2000, 11891000) 2584000 (218000, 7622000) 4909000 (460000, 13364000) 

NJ 6064000 (495000, 18236000) 13338000 (-7000, 44740000) 10240000 (863000, 30201000) 35266000 (3301000, 95994000) 

NY 45617000 (3722000, 137192000) 101737000 (-53000, 341320000) 83756000 (7052000, 247053000) 106855000 (10002000, 290865000) 

PA 14224000 (1161000, 42775000) 31629000 (-16000, 106095000) 27078000 (2281000, 79861000) 78862000 (7382000, 214666000) 

RI 41000 (3000, 124000) 92000 (0, 307000) 61000 (5000, 179000) 4475000 (419000, 12182000) 

VT 1179000 (96000, 3545000) 2653000 (-1000, 8900000) 1928000 (162000, 5686000) 2299000 (215000, 6257000) 

VA 35661000 (2910000, 107240000) 81041000 (-42000, 271850000) 60653000 (5108000, 178889000) 90057000 (8430000, 245139000) 

OTR Total 153862000 (1810000, 473451000) 346569000 (-27799000, 1190232000) 265780000 (5313000, 800981000) 445898000 (41739000, 1213754000) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

CAIR+ Reductions in PM2.5

Table B-5- Reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5, Me

CT DE DC ME MD MA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 6 (2,11) 6 (2,10) 2 (0,3) 1 (0,2) 27 (7,46) -8 (-2,-

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0.01 (0,0.02) 0 (0,0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.05 (0.02,0.09) -0.01 (0,-

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 10 (-2,22) 8 (-2,18) 2 (0,4) 2 (0,4) 42 (-10,94) -9 (2,-2Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 13 (3,23) 8 (2,15) 2 (1,4) 3 (1,5) 41 (10,72) -16 (-4,

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 75 (-28,371) 61 (-23,299) 14 (-5,70) 12 (-5,60) 318 (-119,1567) -73 (-362

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 132 (25,239) 106 (20,192) 25 (5,45) 21 (4,38) 556 (106,1007) -128 (-24

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 83 (-2,168) 67 (-1,136) 16 (0,32) 13 (0,27) 352 (-7,711) -81 (2,-1

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 4 (0,8) 4 (0,7) 1 (0,2) 1 (0,2) 19 (1,37) -5 (0,-

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 4 (2,6) 5 (3,8) 1 (1,2) 1 (0,1) 28 (14,41) -4 (-2,Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 1 (0,3) 1 (0,2) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,1) 6 (1,11) -2 (0,-

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0 (-1,2) 0 (-1,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 1 (-3,6) -1 (1,-

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 1 (0,2) 1 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (-2,7) -1 (1,-

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 1 (0,2) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 2 (1,4) -1 (0,-Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

3 (2,4) 2 (1,3) 1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 9 (5,13) -3 (-2,

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

1 (1,2) 1 (1,2) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 6 (3,8) -2 (-1,

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 1 (0,1) 1 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (1,4) -1 (-1,Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 1 (0,2) 0 (0,-

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 2 (0,3) 2 (0,3) 0 (0,1) 0 (0,1) 8 (1,14) -2 (0,-

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 765 (648,882) 662 (561,764) 197 (167,228) 145 (122,167) 3525 (2985,4065) -825 (-698Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 116 (44,188) 94 (36,152) 21 (8,34) 19 (7,31) 499 (190,807) -113 (-43
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-6- Reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5 Mean (95

NJ NY PA RI VT VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 32 (9,55) 40 (11,70) 62 (17,107) -6 (-2,-10) 0 (0,1) 64 (18,110) Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.05 (0.02,0.08) 0.07 (0.03,0.11) 0.08 (0.03,0.14) -0.01 (0,-0.01) 0 (0,0) 0.11 (0.04,0.18) 

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 47 (-11,105) 63 (-15,141) 71 (-16,158) -8 (2,-17) 1 (0,1) 90 (-21,199) 

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 65 (16,113) 85 (21,149) 118 (29,207) -12 (-3,-22) 1 (0,2) 94 (23,164) Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 360 (-135,1773) 489 (-183,2408) 547 (-205,2694) -62 (-306,23) 4 (-1,20) 689 (-258,3392) 

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 630 (120,1140) 855 (162,1548) 957 (182,1732) -108 (-21,-196) 7 (1,13) 1205 (229,2182) Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18)

398 (-8,805) 541 (-11,1093) 605 (-12,1222) -69 (1,-139) 4 (0,9) 762 (-15,1540) 

Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 21 (1,41) 27 (1,54) 35 (1,68) -4 (0,-7) 0 (0,1) 41 (1,82) 

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 19 (10,28) 26 (13,38) 29 (15,43) -3 (-2,-5) 0 (0,0) 60 (30,89) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older)

7 (1,13) 9 (2,17) 14 (2,25) -1 (0,-3) 0 (0,0) 14 (2,25) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 2 (-5,9) 3 (-6,12) 4 (-9,18) 0 (1,-2) 0 (0,0) 3 (-7,14) Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 4 (-2,10) 5 (-3,13) 7 (-4,18) -1 (0,-2) 0 (0,0) 6 (-4,17) 

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 5 (2,7) 6 (2,10) 7 (3,11) -1 (0,-1) 0 (0,0) 5 (2,9) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

13 (7,19) 17 (10,24) 25 (14,35) -2 (-1,-4) 0 (0,0) 22 (13,32) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

6 (3,10) 8 (4,13) 11 (6,16) -1 (-1,-2) 0 (0,0) 12 (6,18) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 3 (1,5) 4 (2,6) 6 (2,9) -1 (-1,0) 0 (0,0) 6 (3,9) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 2 (1,3) 2 (1,4) 3 (1,5) 0 (0,0) 0 (0,0) 3 (1,5) Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 9 (2,16) 12 (2,21) 17 (3,31) -2 (0,-3) 0 (0,0) 19 (3,34) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 3819 (3234,4405) 5141 (4353,5930) 6040 (5114,6966) -670 (-567,-773) 49 (41,56) 7715 (6532,8897) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 562 (214,909) 751 (286,1215) 843 (322,1364) -93 (-35,-150) 6 (2,10) 1066 (407,1723) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-7- Value of reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to 

CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5, Mean (95% CI), Millions of 2000$ 

CT DE DC 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 39.1205 (2.9977,120.5846) 34.7264 (2.6612,107.0408) 10.3544 (0.7935,31.9163) 8.7

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.0615 (0.0052,0.181) 0.0705 (0.006,0.2072) 0.0221 (0.0019,0.0649) 0.0

Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.0037 (-0.0008,0.0082) 0.003 (-0.0007,0.0066) 0.0007 (-0.0002,0.0015) 0.0Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 0.8597 (0.2119,1.5045) 0.5539 (0.1365,0.9694) 0.1571 (0.0386,0.2755) 0.1

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.0118 (-0.0044,0.0578) 0.0095 (-0.0035,0.0465) 0.0022 (-0.0008,0.0109) 0.0

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.0206 (0.0039,0.0378) 0.0166 (0.0031,0.0304) 0.0039 (0.0007,0.0071) 0.0

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.013 (-0.0003,0.0265) 0.0105 (-0.0002,0.0213) 0.0025 (0,0.005) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 1.3729 (0.0253,6.4806) 1.2165 (0.0225,5.7411) 0.3487 (0.0064,1.6458) 0.2

Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.0011 (0.0005,0.0018) 0.0014 (0.0007,0.0023) 0.0003 (0.0002,0.0006) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0225 (0.004,0.0411) 0.018 (0.0032,0.0328) 0.0056 (0.001,0.0102) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.007 (-0.0153,0.0292) 0.0044 (-0.0096,0.0183) 0.0013 (-0.0028,0.0054) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 0.0197 (-0.0114,0.0508) 0.0146 (-0.0084,0.0375) 0.0042 (-0.0024,0.0109) 0.0Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.0074 (0.0028,0.0119) 0.0038 (0.0015,0.0062) 0.001 (0.0004,0.0016) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

0.0566 (0.0324,0.0807) 0.0413 (0.0236,0.0589) 0.0123 (0.0071,0.0176) 0.

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

0.0294 (0.0152,0.0436) 0.0257 (0.0133,0.038) 0.007 (0.0036,0.0103) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0084 (0.0036,0.0131) 0.007 (0.003,0.011) 0.0021 (0.0009,0.0033) 0.0Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.0035 (0.0012,0.0058) 0.003 (0.001,0.005) 0.0008 (0.0003,0.0013) 0.0

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.0335 (0.0061,0.0609) 0.0284 (0.0052,0.0516) 0.0089 (0.0016,0.0162) 0.0

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.1179 (0.0998,0.1359) 0.0865 (0.0732,0.0998) 0.0292 (0.0247,0.0336) 0.

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.0217 (0.0083,0.0354) 0.0176 (0.0067,0.0287) 0.0039 (0.0015,0.0064) 0.0
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-8- Value of reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ reductions in PM2.5 

Millions of 2000$, continued 

MD MA NH NJ 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 167.7971 (12.8584,517.2181) -47.4149 (-146.1475,-3.6328) 7.0159 (0.5376,21.6258) 200.9525 (15.399,619.41Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.3402 (0.0288,1.0003) -0.0439 (-0.1292,-0.0037) 0.007 (0.0006,0.0205) 0.3105 (0.0263,0.913Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.0157 (-0.0036,0.0351) -0.0035 (-0.0079,0.0008) 0.0007 (-0.0002,0.0015) 0.0177 (-0.0041,0.0395

Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 2.706 (0.6658,4.7409) -1.0669 (-1.8825,-0.2599) 0.1631 (0.0401,0.2859) 4.2669 (1.0504,7.4732Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.0497 (-0.0185,0.2438) -0.0115 (-0.0564,0.0043) 0.0021 (-0.0008,0.0103) 0.0562 (-0.021,0.276) 

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.087 (0.0164,0.1593) -0.02 (-0.0367,-0.0038) 0.0037 (0.0007,0.0067) 0.0984 (0.0186,0.1804

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.055 (-0.0011,0.1119) -0.0127 (-0.0258,0.0003) 0.0023 (0,0.0047) 0.0623 (-0.0012,0.1267Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 6.3011 (0.1164,29.7397) -1.5943 (-7.5305,-0.0294) 0.2794 (0.0052,1.3189) 6.9329 (0.128,32.7231Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.0077 (0.0037,0.0122) -0.0011 (-0.0017,-0.0005) 0.0002 (0.0001,0.0003) 0.0053 (0.0025,0.0084Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0896 (0.0158,0.1635) -0.0266 (-0.0486,-0.0047) 0.0037 (0.0007,0.0067) 0.1083 (0.0191,0.1975Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0211 (-0.0462,0.0883) -0.0084 (-0.0354,0.0184) 0.0012 (-0.0026,0.005) 0.034 (-0.0746,0.1426

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 0.0696 (-0.0403,0.1794) -0.0248 (-0.0639,0.0143) 0.0036 (-0.0021,0.0092) 0.0988 (-0.0572,0.2548

Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.0194 (0.0075,0.0313) -0.0077 (-0.0124,-0.0029) 0.0014 (0.0005,0.0023) 0.0358 (0.0138,0.0579Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

0.2006 (0.1148,0.2863) -0.0688 (-0.0983,-0.0394) 0.0097 (0.0056,0.0139) 0.2775 (0.1589,0.3962

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

0.1309 (0.0679,0.1939) -0.036 (-0.0533,-0.0187) 0.0063 (0.0033,0.0093) 0.1482 (0.0768,0.2195

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0343 (0.0146,0.0535) -0.0104 (-0.0162,-0.0044) 0.0015 (0.0006,0.0023) 0.0416 (0.0177,0.0649Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.0152 (0.0053,0.0252) -0.0044 (-0.0072,-0.0015) 0.0008 (0.0003,0.0012) 0.0177 (0.0062,0.0293

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.1427 (0.0261,0.2594) -0.0395 (-0.0718,-0.0072) 0.0055 (0.001,0.0099) 0.1609 (0.0294,0.2924Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.5108 (0.4325,0.5892) -0.1217 (-0.1404,-0.103) 0.0199 (0.0169,0.023) 0.5947 (0.5035,0.6858

Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.0933 (0.0355,0.1521) -0.0211 (-0.0346,-0.008) 0.004 (0.0015,0.0066) 0.1051 (0.04,0.1713) 
DRAFT – Public Health Benefits of Reducing Ground-level Ozone & PM2.5 in the Northeast 

Table B-9-Value of reduced incidences of mortality and morbidity due to CAIR+ 

reductions in PM2.5, Mean (95% CI), Millions of 2000$, continued 

PA RI VT VA 

Mortality (Adults ages 30 and older) 390.2875 (29.9078,1203.0222) -37.3088 (-114.9983,-2.8586) 2.7761 (0.2127,8.557) 401.8214 (30.7933,1238.5797

Mortality (Infants less than 1 year of age) 0.5319 (0.045,1.564) -0.0358 (-0.1052,-0.003) 0.0029 (0.0002,0.0086) 0.715 (0.0605,2.1021) Acute Bronchitis (Children, ages 8-12) 0.0265 (-0.0061,0.0593) -0.0029 (-0.0065,0.0007) 0.0002 (0,0.0004) 0.0335 (-0.0077,0.0749) Acute Myocardial Infarctions (Adults ages 18 and older) 7.8021 (1.9204,13.666) -0.8077 (-1.4215,-0.1974) 0.0633 (0.0156,0.111) 6.1694 (1.5197,10.8006) 

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Cough (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.0854 (-0.0318,0.4192) -0.0097 (-0.0476,0.0036) 0.0006 (-0.0002,0.0031) 0.1076 (-0.0401,0.528) 

Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Wheeze (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.1495 (0.0283,0.274) -0.0169 (-0.0311,-0.0032) 0.0011 (0.0002,0.002) 0.1883 (0.0356,0.3451) Astham Exacerbation Symptoms, Shortness of Breath (asthmatic children, 6 to 18) 0.0946 (-0.0019,0.1924) -0.0107 (-0.0218,0.0002) 0.0007 (0,0.0014) 0.1191 (-0.0024,0.2424) Chronic Bronchitis (Adults 27 years and older) 11.647 (0.2151,54.972) -1.2273 (-5.7964,-0.0226) 0.0957 (0.0018,0.4516) 13.9799 (0.2584,65.9692) Emergency Room Visits for Asthma (Children 17 years and younger) 0.0081 (0.0039,0.0129) -0.0009 (-0.0014,-0.0004) 0.0001 (0,0.0001) 0.0166 (0.008,0.0265) Hospital Admissions- Congestive Heart Failure (Adults 65 years and older) 0.2064 (0.0364,0.3763) -0.021 (-0.0382,-0.0037) 0.0015 (0.0003,0.0028) 0.2104 (0.0371,0.3837) 

Hospital Admissions- Dysrythmia (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0645 (-0.1414,0.2703) -0.0065 (-0.0272,0.0142) 0.0005 (-0.0011,0.0021) 0.05 (-0.1096,0.2096) 

Hospital Admissions- Ischemic Heart Disease (Adults65 years and older) 0.1858 (-0.1076,0.479) -0.0184 (-0.0474,0.0106) 0.0015 (-0.0009,0.0039) 0.1677 (-0.0971,0.4323) Hospital Admissions- Asthma (Population under 65 years) 0.0554 (0.0213,0.0895) -0.0062 (-0.01,-0.0024) 0.0004 (0.0002,0.0007) 0.0417 (0.016,0.0673) Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 65 years and older)

0.5257 (0.301,0.7505) -0.0527 (-0.0753,-0.0302) 0.0041 (0.0023,0.0058) 0.4772 (0.2732,0.6812) 

Hospital Admissions- All Cardiovascular not including Myocardial Infarction (Adults 18 to 64 years)

0.2503 (0.1298,0.3708) -0.0267 (-0.0396,-0.0138) 0.0022 (0.0011,0.0032) 0.2824 (0.1464,0.4183) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 65 years and older) 0.0781 (0.0333,0.1217) -0.0078 (-0.0121,-0.0033) 0.0006 (0.0003,0.001) 0.0822 (0.035,0.1281) 

Hospital Admissions- Chronic Lung Disease (Adults 18-64 years) 0.0301 (0.0104,0.0498) -0.0032 (-0.0053,-0.0011) 0.0003 (0.0001,0.0004) 0.0327 (0.0113,0.054) 

Hospital Admissions- Puemonia (Adults 65 years and above) 0.307 (0.0561,0.5578) -0.0312 (-0.0568,-0.0057) 0.0022 (0.0004,0.0041) 0.3332 (0.0609,0.6054) 

Work Loss Days (Adults 18-65 years) 0.7524 (0.637,0.8678) -0.0849 (-0.098,-0.0719) 0.0055 (0.0046,0.0063) 1.0159 (0.8602,1.1717) Lower Respiratory Symptoms (Children, ages 7-14) 0.1578 (0.0601,0.2571) -0.0173 (-0.0283,-0.0066) 0.0012 (0.0004,0.0019) 0.1993 (0.0759,0.3248)