From: Cymbalsky, John [mailto:Jo hn.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:20 PM

To: 'Meyers, Aaron'; Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirs ch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATIm etals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net;

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chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Anto nio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton .com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; srosenstock@eei.org; DYoung@energy-solution.com;

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Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc. org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop;

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Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections

Aaron et al:

Attached is the official USG projections for LDV sales from EIA, the independent statistical agency of the

USG from which our electricity projections are based.

John

From: Meyers, Aaron [ mailto:Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:09 PM

To: Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ;

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Cymbalsky, John; srosenstock@eei.org ;

DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ;

rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ;

greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen,

Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ;

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robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ;

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: Electric Vehicle ProjectionsDear Distribution Transformer Efficiency Subcommittee, et al,

The following link is to an article published by the NEMA Intelligence Portal and provides some insight

into the projected impact of electric vehicles:

http://portal.nema.org/Pages/d ocument.aspx?docId=3156&LoadSour ce=LexisNexis&utm_medium=ema

il&utm_campaign=digest_2011

‐ 11

‐ 17&utm_source=aaron.meyers@cooperindustries.com

Most interestingly, by 2025, one in seven new cars is projected to be a zero

‐ emission or plug

‐ in hybrid

vehicle, and 1.4 million are projected to be on the road in California alone by 2025. I don’t see how we

can ignore the impact of this significant change. Meeting th e charging needs will dramatically change

the loading assumptions in the current analysis. As someone pointed out at the October meeting, the

reference loading level (50%) is part of the testing standard and is not on the table for negotiating

purposes, so this is just another non

‐ trivial factor that must be co nsidered outside of the existing

analysis results.

Keep in mind that for two transformers having the same efficiency at 50% load, the amorphous one will

be more efficient at low loading levels whereas the grain

‐ oriented one will be more efficient at higher

loading levels. Looking at Cooper’s data, the ra tio of no

‐ load to load losses at 100% load on a typical

DOE compliant grain

‐ oriented transformer today is 6:1, and on a Cooper amorphous unit it’s about

10:1. To make an analogy, if no

‐ load losses were a slice of pie, the load losses would be the re st of the

entire pie! Load losses are a huge lever and cannot be tossed aside as if merely a nuisance! Most of the

discussion thus far has been squarely focused on no

‐ load losses. We need to make sure we aren’t

spending four dollars to save fifty cents.

Best Re gards,

Aaron