C-11 

C.2 Model Performance Statistics 

To quantify model performance, several statistical measures were calculated and evaluated for 

all the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain and individually for each 

IMPROVE monitor associated with a VISTAS or nearby Class I areas. The statistical measures 

selected were based on the recommendations outlined in section 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s 

Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air 

Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (EPA, 2007a). 

In 2004, VISTAS established model performance goals and criteria for components of fine 

particle mass (Table C-2) based on previous model performance for ozone and fine particles. 

EPA modeling guidance for fine particulate matter at the time noted that PM models might not 

be able to achieve the same level of performance as ozone models. VISTAS’ evaluation 

considered several statistical performance measures and displays. 

Table C-2. Model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass. 

Fractional Bias Fractional Error Comment 

<15% <35% Goal for PM model performance based on ozone model 

performance, considered excellent performance 

<30% <50% Goal for PM model performance, considered good 

performance 

<60% <75% Criteria for PM model performance, considered average 

performance. Exceeding this level of performance 

indicates fundamental concerns with the modeling 

system and triggers diagnostic evaluation. 

The statistical measures were calculated for all of the component species of particulate matter 

responsible for light extinction, and for total light extinction. For convenience, these statistical 

measures or metrics, along with a variety of additional statistical measures, are summarized in 

Table C-3. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 301

January 18, 2008
 C-12 

Table C-3. Statistical metric calculations. 

Statistical Measure Shorthand 

Notation 

Mathematical Expression Notes 

Accuracy of Paired 

Peak 

Ap

peak

peak

O

− OP

Coefficient of 

Determination 

R2

( )( )

∑ ∑

∑

= =

=

− −

⎥

⎦

⎤ ⎢

⎣

⎡ −−

N

i

N

i

i i

N

i

i i

OOPP

OOPP

1 1

2 2

2

1

)()(

Pi

= prediction at time and 

 location i; 

Oi = observation at time and 

 location i; 

P = arithmetic average of Pi

, 

 i = 1, 2, . . ., N; 

O = arithmetic average of Oi, 

 i = 1, 2, . . ., N; 

Normalized Mean 

Error 

NME 

∑

∑

=

=

−

N

i

i

N

i

ii

O

OP

1

1

Reported as % 

Root Mean Square 

Error 

RMSE 

( ) 2

1

1

1 2

⎥

⎦

⎤ ⎢

⎣

⎡ ∑ − =

N

i

OP ii N

Reported as % 

Mean Fractional 

Error 

MFE 

∑= +

− N

i ii

ii

OP

OP

N 1

2 Reported as % 

Mean Absolute 

Gross Error 

MAGE ∑=

−

N

i

OP ii N 1

1

Mean Normalized 

Gross Error 

MNGE 

∑=

N −

i i

ii

O

OP

N 1

1 Reported as % 

Mean Biased MB ∑( ) =

−

N

i

OP ii N 1

1 Reported as concentration 

Mean Normalized 

Bias 

MNB ( ) ∑=

− N

i i

ii

O

OP

N 1

1 Reported as % 

Mean Fractionalized 

Bias (Fractional Bias) 

MFB 

∑= ⎟

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎜

⎝

⎛

+

− N

i ii

ii

OP

OP

N 1

2 Reported as % 

Normalized Mean 

Bias 

NMB ( )

∑

∑

=

=

−

N

i

i

N

i

ii

O

OP

1

1

Reported as % 

Bias Factor BF 

∑= ⎟

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎜

⎝

⎛ N

i i

i

O

P

N 1

1 Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in 

fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF) 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 302

January 18, 2008
 C-13 

C.2.1 Statistical Tables 

The statistical data is calculated collectively for all of the IMPROVE monitors within the 

VISTAS 12 km domain, as well as individually for each of the IMPROVE monitors associated 

with a VISTAS Class I area along with the IMPROVE monitors associated with nearby Class I 

areas. These statistics have been calculated separately for the 20% Best days (Section C.2.1.1) 

and 20% Worst days (Section C.2.1.2). 

C.2.1.1 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Best Days 

Table C-4 displays the model performance statistical measures for the Best 20 percent visibility 

days during 2002. Table C-4a contains statistical performance metrics for the Best 20 percent 

days across all IMPROVE monitors in the VISTAS 12 km domain, whereas the remainder of the 

tables contain statistics for each individual IMPROVE monitor associated with a Class I area 

within and near the VISTAS region. 

C.2.1.2 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Worst Days 

Statistical performance measures for the Worst 20 percent days in 2002 and the CMAQ Base G2 

12 km base case are shown in Table C-5. 

Table C-4a. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 

km VISTAS grid. 

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -115.20 -110.06 -25.88 -27.46 78.49 148.33 -81.50 -81.14

MFE (%) 122.49 132.75 57.01 55.29 114.38 184.31 104.25 88.50

Ap 2.48 1.09 2.16 1.54 1.73 4.23 -0.18 1.85

NMB (%) -61.28 -39.82 -3.89 -12.78 213.72 551.54 -62.01 -47.74

NME (%) 75.88 86.49 55.78 52.03 266.13 711.04 70.48 59.48

MNB (%) -61.79 -40.68 0.75 8.92 682.14 2051.72 -38.65 -48.42

MNE (%) 77.67 91.64 58.34 68.09 704.19 2147.79 78.76 60.38

MB (μg/m3) -9.52 -1.77 -0.18 -0.25 0.63 2.88 -1.34 -19.42

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.79 3.84 2.64 1.02 0.78 3.71 1.52 24.20

RMSE (μg/m3) 14.76 6.23 5.04 1.97 1.18 7.45 2.07 27.92

Obs Max (μg/m3) 41.57 30.49 21.39 9.96 2.95 15.38 9.86 65.36

Pred Max (μg/m3) 144.46 63.78 67.55 25.33 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22

Mean_Obs 15.54 4.44 4.74 1.95 0.29 0.52 2.15 40.69

Mean_Pred 6.02 2.68 4.55 1.70 0.92 3.40 0.82 21.27

Std_Dev_Obs 7.06 3.93 2.50 1.09 0.32 1.78 1.68 10.12

Std_Dev_Pre 10.74 6.01 5.33 1.91 0.97 6.47 0.92 20.63

Variance 217.83 38.82 25.35 3.88 1.40 55.56 4.29 779.65

R2 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.09

BF 0.38 0.59 1.01 1.08 7.82 4.57 0.60 0.52

N 490 490 490 490 490 490 490 490

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 303

January 18, 2008
 C-14 

Table C-4b. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Breton Island Class I 

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -152.90 -179.64 -82.67 -69.08 14.14 27.20 -80.87 -139.99

MFE (%) 152.90 181.21 83.72 69.19 126.36 166.60 91.94 139.99

Ap -0.74 -0.69 -0.54 -0.46 -0.25 -0.47 -0.46 -0.66

NMB (%) -86.23 -94.40 -54.53 -50.86 -14.55 -47.92 -56.39 -81.07

NME (%) 86.23 95.50 55.38 50.96 132.14 111.15 59.69 81.07

MNB (%) -85.67 -90.70 -53.78 -48.24 454.91 -71.19 -41.48 -81.47

MNE (%) 85.67 92.44 54.89 48.36 519.05 76.78 71.91 81.47

MB (μg/m3) -15.48 -2.76 -1.40 -0.81 -0.05 -0.39 -1.98 -32.99

MAGE (μg/m3) 15.48 2.80 1.43 0.82 0.43 0.90 2.10 32.99

RMSE (μg/m3) 16.76 3.21 1.79 1.04 0.57 1.25 2.40 33.48

Obs Max (μg/m3) 28.83 7.28 6.17 2.75 1.61 3.81 7.45 48.75

Pred Max (μg/m3) 7.43 2.23 2.86 1.48 1.21 2.03 4.00 16.64

Mean_Obs 17.95 2.93 2.57 1.60 0.33 0.81 3.51 40.69

Mean_Pred 2.47 0.16 1.17 0.79 0.28 0.42 1.53 7.70

Std_Dev_Obs 7.00 1.50 1.40 0.76 0.41 1.00 1.66 6.09

Std_Dev_Pre 2.24 0.49 0.90 0.46 0.31 0.51 1.06 4.97

Variance 280.94 10.28 3.21 1.08 0.32 1.57 5.76 1120.72

R2 0.12 0.04 0.34 0.25 0.08 0.05 0.31 0.22

BF 0.14 0.09 0.46 0.52 5.55 0.15 0.59 0.19

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4c. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Brigantine Class I 

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -118.49 -85.82 1.36 36.59 68.09 88.47 -126.19 -75.43

MFE (%) 126.68 116.82 57.68 75.89 107.44 176.33 126.19 94.46

Ap 0.14 0.09 7.20 4.77 2.48 -0.61 -0.70 1.14

NMB (%) -66.46 -29.38 124.33 131.07 204.17 -11.47 -76.73 -39.27

NME (%) 75.91 76.29 157.87 159.04 240.37 164.42 76.73 67.56

MNB (%) -65.18 -24.93 99.46 309.60 278.12 3530.32 -75.55 -35.94

MNE (%) 75.82 86.26 138.10 336.38 303.32 3647.08 75.55 69.99

MB (μg/m3) -10.86 -1.07 5.36 2.69 0.48 -0.23 -3.00 -17.47

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.41 2.77 6.81 3.26 0.56 3.30 3.00 30.05

RMSE (μg/m3) 13.51 3.51 16.44 6.75 0.74 4.55 3.49 34.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 27.59 11.88 8.23 4.39 0.62 12.00 8.61 52.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 31.45 12.90 67.55 25.33 2.17 4.65 2.62 113.43

Mean_Obs 16.35 3.63 4.31 2.05 0.23 2.00 3.90 44.48

Mean_Pred 5.48 2.56 9.67 4.74 0.71 1.77 0.91 27.01

Std_Dev_Obs 5.74 2.26 1.88 1.17 0.13 3.83 1.82 6.00

Std_Dev_Pre 7.08 3.74 16.57 6.23 0.54 1.28 0.76 28.02

Variance 182.58 12.31 270.43 45.58 0.55 20.74 12.15 1165.02

R2 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.04 0.06

BF 0.35 0.75 1.99 3.91 3.78 14.85 0.24 0.64

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 304

January 18, 2008
 C-15 

Table C-4d. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Caney Creek Class I 

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -98.27 -48.24 12.50 -32.03 121.94 192.93 -80.27 -54.72

MFE (%) 115.70 107.35 51.24 50.47 127.27 192.93 89.10 68.41

Ap 0.74 0.60 -0.05 -0.05 2.68 10.90 -0.73 0.75

NMB (%) -49.86 -8.82 17.09 -26.56 422.09 6340.14 -64.97 -32.38

NME (%) 75.74 92.86 46.05 37.07 428.84 6340.14 67.42 50.84

MNB (%) -48.65 38.51 36.27 -15.41 2407.02 24672.54 -48.65 -32.00

MNE (%) 71.78 132.02 63.94 43.59 2411.82 24672.54 60.37 49.96

MB (μg/m3) -4.15 -0.52 0.77 -0.45 1.23 3.55 -1.32 -10.93

MAGE (μg/m3) 6.30 5.44 2.07 0.63 1.25 3.55 1.37 17.16

RMSE (μg/m3) 7.49 7.61 2.34 0.73 1.45 4.64 1.92 19.73

Obs Max (μg/m3) 15.58 18.62 9.59 2.61 0.76 1.20 5.41 42.26

Pred Max (μg/m3) 27.18 29.87 9.11 2.48 2.80 14.24 1.45 73.85

Mean_Obs 8.32 5.86 4.49 1.70 0.29 0.06 2.04 33.75

Mean_Pred 4.17 5.34 5.25 1.25 1.52 3.61 0.71 22.82

Std_Dev_Obs 3.75 5.22 2.15 0.67 0.20 0.25 1.41 7.14

Std_Dev_Pre 6.91 7.23 2.63 0.61 0.74 3.03 0.35 17.54

Variance 56.13 57.90 5.47 0.53 2.09 21.58 3.69 389.25

R2 0.17 0.06 0.32 0.34 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09

BF 0.51 1.39 1.36 0.85 25.07 45.04 0.51 0.68

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-4e. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Chassahowitzka 

Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -97.65 -185.48 -62.20 -34.33 75.31 179.65 -77.10 -71.12

MFE (%) 117.54 185.48 67.73 48.95 85.36 190.74 79.50 77.64

Ap 1.16 -0.84 -0.23 0.11 0.30 1.00 -0.54 0.48

NMB (%) -49.52 -95.94 -46.59 -25.06 104.88 1176.77 -58.67 -45.69

NME (%) 77.32 95.94 51.53 41.99 124.45 1297.43 59.97 53.66

MNB (%) -46.09 -95.88 -41.14 -19.10 338.45 472.23 -51.69 -46.07

MNE (%) 79.70 95.88 47.39 43.56 346.64 522.75 54.46 53.71

MB (μg/m3) -8.50 -4.25 -2.65 -0.59 0.36 6.75 -2.10 -20.64

MAGE (μg/m3) 13.27 4.25 2.94 1.00 0.43 7.45 2.15 24.23

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.07 4.48 3.50 1.22 0.53 8.82 2.61 26.26

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.80 8.90 8.38 3.78 1.14 10.05 7.40 52.76

Pred Max (μg/m3) 53.53 1.41 6.45 4.19 1.48 20.13 3.39 77.91

Mean_Obs 17.16 4.43 5.70 2.37 0.34 0.57 3.58 45.17

Mean_Pred 8.66 0.18 3.04 1.78 0.70 7.33 1.48 24.53

Std_Dev_Obs 5.32 1.45 1.58 0.59 0.29 2.15 1.49 6.38

Std_Dev_Pre 12.45 0.31 1.36 0.85 0.26 4.94 0.54 17.53

Variance 227.25 20.04 12.27 1.48 0.29 77.76 6.81 689.51

R2 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.10

BF 0.54 0.04 0.59 0.81 4.38 0.78 0.48 0.54

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 305

January 18, 2008
 C-16 

Table C-4f. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -87.92 -80.72 -5.85 -24.92 92.95 198.40 -43.63 -64.47

MFE (%) 106.08 104.25 41.26 44.71 108.35 198.40 89.95 70.27

Ap 0.57 -0.18 0.54 0.03 1.38 23.19 -0.88 -0.01

NMB (%) -43.70 -38.79 8.59 -16.07 189.67 16676.44 -71.13 -41.05

NME (%) 69.09 67.47 40.33 33.25 204.65 16676.44 82.18 47.02

MNB (%) -45.05 -35.48 8.54 -12.98 451.68 10913.35 -9.19 -41.72

MNE (%) 71.18 67.60 45.10 38.67 462.35 10913.35 84.08 48.37

MB (μg/m3) -7.46 -1.79 0.39 -0.30 0.51 2.40 -0.91 -16.67

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.80 3.12 1.82 0.61 0.55 2.40 1.05 19.10

RMSE (μg/m3) 12.95 4.15 2.32 0.70 0.73 2.97 2.24 21.31

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.33 14.54 6.69 3.25 0.84 0.28 8.34 51.42

Pred Max (μg/m3) 38.12 11.93 10.33 3.34 1.99 6.75 0.99 50.69

Mean_Obs 17.08 4.62 4.52 1.84 0.27 0.01 1.27 40.62

Mean_Pred 9.62 2.83 4.91 1.55 0.78 2.41 0.37 23.94

Std_Dev_Obs 4.94 3.06 1.37 0.73 0.22 0.06 2.05 6.33

Std_Dev_Pre 10.77 3.50 2.79 0.84 0.51 1.80 0.23 14.43

Variance 167.74 17.20 5.39 0.49 0.53 8.81 5.01 453.92

R2 0.04 0.10 0.30 0.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12

BF 0.55 0.65 1.09 0.87 5.52 11.01 0.86 0.58

N 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Table C-4g. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Dolly Sods Class I 

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -107.37 -62.64 -78.22 -73.22 104.58 200.00 -84.35 -97.79

MFE (%) 109.37 98.95 78.34 76.44 110.05 200.00 127.36 97.79

Ap -0.04 0.45 -0.52 -0.47 2.47 -999.00 -0.79 -0.21

NMB (%) -62.79 -24.54 -57.40 -49.56 317.65 -999.00 -79.16 -61.85

NME (%) 65.70 64.67 57.44 51.87 321.71 -999.00 84.37 61.85

MNB (%) -64.90 -18.19 -52.99 -48.25 926.54 -999.00 20.22 -63.26

MNE (%) 67.01 69.59 53.11 52.13 931.32 -999.00 143.07 63.26

MB (μg/m3) -8.23 -0.74 -2.55 -0.92 0.45 0.82 -0.56 -20.58

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.61 1.96 2.55 0.96 0.46 0.82 0.60 20.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.90 2.68 3.16 1.10 0.59 1.02 0.80 21.54

Obs Max (μg/m3) 23.24 9.02 9.02 3.44 0.43 0.00 1.93 43.68

Pred Max (μg/m3) 22.29 13.11 4.36 1.82 1.49 2.76 0.41 34.63

Mean_Obs 13.11 3.03 4.43 1.85 0.14 0.00 0.71 33.27

Mean_Pred 4.88 2.29 1.89 0.93 0.59 0.82 0.15 12.69

Std_Dev_Obs 5.34 2.39 2.10 0.76 0.11 0.00 0.61 7.00

Std_Dev_Pre 5.28 3.02 1.13 0.52 0.40 0.63 0.10 7.57

Variance 98.09 7.20 9.97 1.20 0.34 1.05 0.64 464.10

R2 0.19 0.30 0.18 0.35 0.05 -999.00 0.11 0.36

BF 0.35 0.82 0.47 0.52 10.27 0.00 1.20 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 306

January 18, 2008
 C-17 

Table C-4h. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -165.78 -199.82 -8.55 -6.99 -58.20 -10.33 -119.13 -131.93

MFE (%) 165.78 199.82 43.15 52.61 105.18 127.64 119.13 131.93

Ap -0.61 -1.00 -0.18 -0.17 -0.85 -0.67 -0.64 -0.55

NMB (%) -88.57 -99.95 -5.12 -12.84 -69.39 -58.59 -76.84 -78.61

NME (%) 88.57 99.95 40.75 47.33 84.41 98.24 76.84 78.61

MNB (%) -89.70 -99.95 3.63 -2.76 -1.43 -56.94 -72.48 -78.57

MNE (%) 89.70 99.95 40.75 41.91 96.80 57.89 72.48 78.57

MB (μg/m3) -8.06 -2.04 -0.15 -0.12 -0.27 -0.74 -1.80 -23.62

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.06 2.04 1.21 0.45 0.33 1.24 1.80 23.62

RMSE (μg/m3) 8.36 2.15 1.47 0.64 0.52 1.75 2.03 23.93

Obs Max (μg/m3) 14.39 3.74 5.72 2.89 1.84 4.83 3.91 32.94

Pred Max (μg/m3) 5.54 0.02 4.71 2.39 0.27 1.57 1.40 14.82

Mean_Obs 9.10 2.04 2.96 0.95 0.39 1.26 2.35 30.05

Mean_Pred 1.04 0.00 2.81 0.83 0.12 0.52 0.54 6.43

Std_Dev_Obs 2.57 0.68 0.96 0.63 0.43 1.44 0.89 2.39

Std_Dev_Pre 1.26 0.00 1.05 0.60 0.06 0.39 0.30 3.22

Variance 69.82 4.61 2.16 0.41 0.27 3.07 4.13 572.47

R2 0.23 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.00

BF 0.10 0.00 1.04 0.93 0.99 0.30 0.28 0.21

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-4i. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Great Smoky 

Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -94.17 -85.46 4.96 -7.50 138.59 178.02 -92.16 -63.98

MFE (%) 106.13 121.52 35.87 46.24 146.55 192.47 100.92 73.86

Ap 1.26 0.42 0.48 0.80 5.01 1.79 -0.80 1.12

NMB (%) -46.57 -28.06 17.14 5.51 631.35 909.08 -69.24 -38.72

NME (%) 73.85 89.51 44.67 47.10 648.27 1026.45 72.85 55.67

MNB (%) -43.83 -18.32 18.89 8.54 1821.12 -1.90 -53.08 -37.82

MNE (%) 82.10 96.66 43.55 48.94 1826.58 88.88 64.36 58.76

MB (μg/m3) -8.72 -1.12 0.73 0.11 0.97 2.19 -0.79 -16.09

MAGE (μg/m3) 13.83 3.57 1.91 0.96 1.00 2.48 0.83 23.13

RMSE (μg/m3) 17.59 4.96 2.88 1.22 1.31 3.29 1.09 27.06

Obs Max (μg/m3) 31.91 10.95 8.95 3.38 0.69 3.59 3.75 52.59

Pred Max (μg/m3) 72.10 15.57 13.26 6.09 4.17 10.01 0.77 111.51

Mean_Obs 18.72 3.99 4.27 2.03 0.15 0.24 1.14 41.55

Mean_Pred 10.00 2.87 5.00 2.15 1.13 2.43 0.35 25.46

Std_Dev_Obs 8.30 3.09 1.77 0.72 0.17 0.84 0.78 9.77

Std_Dev_Pre 14.66 4.40 3.10 1.33 0.89 2.27 0.21 21.63

Variance 309.58 24.64 8.30 1.48 1.70 10.85 1.19 732.11

R2 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03

BF 0.56 0.82 1.19 1.09 19.21 0.09 0.47 0.62

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 307

January 18, 2008
 C-18 

Table C-4j. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Hercules Glade Class 

I area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -132.82 -81.46 -11.53 -30.28 144.10 200.00 -32.67 -47.04

MFE (%) 132.82 103.95 40.05 41.82 144.10 200.00 57.88 60.54

Ap -0.63 1.76 0.17 -0.04 8.46 -999.00 -0.35 0.89

NMB (%) -77.98 -20.11 -4.87 -21.83 720.14 -999.00 -28.19 -28.48

NME (%) 77.98 82.73 35.75 33.02 720.14 -999.00 48.77 46.61

MNB (%) -78.28 -32.69 0.82 -20.20 911.74 -999.00 -11.82 -29.64

MNE (%) 78.28 78.59 39.89 33.88 911.74 -999.00 51.51 47.04

MB (μg/m3) -9.24 -1.15 -0.27 -0.53 2.20 8.53 -0.67 -11.19

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.24 4.73 2.01 0.80 2.20 8.53 1.16 18.31

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.68 7.54 2.51 0.94 2.56 10.14 1.47 20.11

Obs Max (μg/m3) 17.95 13.33 9.21 3.73 0.57 0.00 5.14 44.20

Pred Max (μg/m3) 6.62 36.84 10.79 3.57 5.40 22.46 3.33 83.40

Mean_Obs 11.85 5.71 5.61 2.41 0.31 0.00 2.39 39.28

Mean_Pred 2.61 4.56 5.34 1.88 2.50 8.53 1.71 28.09

Std_Dev_Obs 3.36 3.53 1.88 0.74 0.13 0.00 1.10 3.87

Std_Dev_Pre 1.80 8.16 2.56 0.86 1.32 5.60 0.81 18.23

Variance 93.67 56.85 6.31 0.88 6.57 102.75 2.15 404.22

R2 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.27 0.02 -999.00 0.00 0.15

BF 0.22 0.67 1.01 0.80 10.12 0.00 0.88 0.70

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4k. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the James River Face 

Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -91.09 -83.18 -65.51 -65.84 84.39 199.75 -132.42 -83.60

MFE (%) 100.63 118.95 69.44 67.77 84.97 199.75 132.42 87.18

Ap -0.09 0.75 -0.67 -0.72 0.88 330.57 -0.77 0.09

NMB (%) -47.44 -45.84 -49.87 -54.56 146.02 291595.78 -80.40 -52.48

NME (%) 59.51 92.91 53.49 55.58 146.61 291595.78 80.40 56.50

MNB (%) -51.16 -4.56 -44.70 -45.74 216.63 6626.39 -78.95 -52.91

MNE (%) 63.28 112.94 49.69 47.91 217.19 6626.39 78.95 57.42

MB (μg/m3) -10.04 -2.26 -3.11 -1.88 0.35 2.00 -1.05 -25.36

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.59 4.59 3.34 1.91 0.35 2.00 1.05 27.30

RMSE (μg/m3) 14.16 5.71 4.56 2.62 0.43 2.45 1.18 29.72

Obs Max (μg/m3) 41.57 10.56 21.39 9.96 0.69 0.02 2.90 60.15

Pred Max (μg/m3) 37.76 18.46 6.97 2.82 1.29 5.24 0.67 65.41

Mean_Obs 21.16 4.94 6.24 3.44 0.24 0.00 1.31 48.33

Mean_Pred 11.12 2.67 3.13 1.56 0.59 2.00 0.26 22.97

Std_Dev_Obs 7.70 2.48 3.83 1.96 0.15 0.00 0.61 7.18

Std_Dev_Pre 11.63 4.04 1.82 0.58 0.26 1.45 0.15 16.35

Variance 200.48 32.55 20.77 6.87 0.18 6.01 1.39 883.03

R2 0.25 0.10 0.21 0.10 0.09 0.02 0.36 0.08

BF 0.49 0.95 0.55 0.54 3.17 2.92 0.21 0.47

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 308

January 18, 2008
 C-19 

Table C-4l. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Linville Gorge Class I 

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -115.63 -95.20 -45.21 -44.22 104.52 181.01 -105.22 -97.19

MFE (%) 116.61 115.72 51.50 50.16 115.41 181.18 119.65 97.19

Ap -0.44 -0.72 0.31 -0.09 1.23 2.10 -0.83 -0.42

NMB (%) -69.37 -53.30 -31.24 -31.42 230.32 1115.81 -77.59 -63.14

NME (%) 69.82 71.17 42.01 38.50 251.11 1117.78 78.96 63.14

MNB (%) -69.20 -43.30 -30.96 -29.43 510.03 884.70 -45.89 -63.32

MNE (%) 70.23 74.23 38.11 36.49 519.16 885.91 88.23 63.32

MB (μg/m3) -9.06 -1.22 -1.42 -0.68 0.42 0.97 -0.72 -21.62

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.12 1.63 1.90 0.83 0.46 0.97 0.74 21.62

RMSE (μg/m3) 10.48 2.33 2.46 1.05 0.59 1.28 1.00 22.72

Obs Max (μg/m3) 25.33 11.62 8.77 4.76 0.70 0.98 3.43 41.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 14.31 3.29 11.47 4.35 1.56 3.06 0.57 24.48

Mean_Obs 13.05 2.29 4.53 2.16 0.18 0.09 0.93 34.24

Mean_Pred 4.00 1.07 3.12 1.48 0.60 1.05 0.21 12.62

Std_Dev_Obs 5.92 2.24 2.03 0.95 0.16 0.27 0.80 6.50

Std_Dev_Pre 3.72 1.15 2.65 1.07 0.42 0.82 0.14 6.37

Variance 109.79 5.41 6.07 1.10 0.35 1.65 1.01 516.35

R2 0.20 0.19 0.41 0.46 0.02 0.00 0.43 0.14

BF 0.31 0.57 0.69 0.71 6.10 1.41 0.54 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-4m. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mammoth Cave 

Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -121.24 -61.27 -66.90 -38.39 96.54 200.00 -53.22 -83.33

MFE (%) 121.24 98.70 67.80 46.35 106.03 200.00 106.30 83.33

Ap -0.45 0.12 -0.29 -0.27 0.55 -999.00 -0.80 -0.04

NMB (%) -73.51 -18.48 -47.74 -32.06 228.66 -999.00 -61.68 -53.43

NME (%) 73.51 84.20 48.54 37.77 248.33 -999.00 76.41 53.43

MNB (%) -72.87 -13.78 -46.23 -24.86 315.06 -999.00 -6.34 -53.97

MNE (%) 72.87 81.80 47.16 34.63 322.26 -999.00 97.75 53.97

MB (μg/m3) -18.73 -1.78 -3.18 -0.94 0.86 3.45 -0.71 -30.58

MAGE (μg/m3) 18.73 8.09 3.24 1.11 0.94 3.45 0.88 30.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 20.15 10.57 3.79 1.47 1.10 4.21 1.21 34.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 39.05 30.49 13.25 6.05 1.41 0.00 4.08 65.36

Pred Max (μg/m3) 21.37 34.29 9.43 4.41 2.19 8.01 0.83 63.00

Mean_Obs 25.48 9.61 6.67 2.94 0.38 0.00 1.15 57.23

Mean_Pred 6.75 7.83 3.49 2.00 1.24 3.45 0.44 26.65

Std_Dev_Obs 6.70 6.69 2.68 1.11 0.27 0.00 1.02 6.69

Std_Dev_Pre 5.16 9.91 2.19 0.90 0.60 2.47 0.25 17.74

Variance 405.94 111.65 14.33 2.17 1.22 17.73 1.47 1201.52

R2 0.04 0.05 0.42 0.13 0.03 -999.00 0.03 0.12

BF 0.27 0.86 0.54 0.75 4.15 0.00 0.90 0.46

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 309

January 18, 2008
 C-20 

Table C-4n. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -122.89 -71.02 -31.76 -7.09 138.37 197.99 24.07 -20.17

MFE (%) 122.89 108.52 46.62 37.98 138.37 197.99 58.30 47.25

Ap -0.59 4.78 -0.27 0.22 4.57 53.62 -0.18 2.28

NMB (%) -73.17 15.70 -26.09 -2.91 508.18 20904.07 14.53 0.62

NME (%) 73.17 124.27 39.88 37.18 508.18 20904.07 64.88 48.50

MNB (%) -73.66 10.81 -17.69 3.48 1070.38 3119.60 89.76 -1.41

MNE (%) 73.66 118.63 38.69 38.50 1070.38 3119.60 114.86 46.76

MB (μg/m3) -12.68 0.74 -1.74 -0.07 2.61 21.82 0.41 0.29

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.68 5.88 2.66 0.88 2.61 21.82 1.84 22.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 13.73 13.02 3.40 1.10 3.11 28.77 2.72 35.59

Obs Max (μg/m3) 32.46 11.03 12.57 3.80 1.45 1.47 9.86 56.75

Pred Max (μg/m3) 13.20 63.78 9.23 4.66 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22

Mean_Obs 17.33 4.73 6.68 2.38 0.51 0.10 2.83 46.57

Mean_Pred 4.65 5.48 4.93 2.31 3.12 21.93 3.24 46.86

Std_Dev_Obs 6.18 3.01 2.76 0.77 0.38 0.35 2.51 7.41

Std_Dev_Pre 3.83 13.49 2.45 1.07 1.71 19.37 1.84 38.39

Variance 188.61 169.45 11.59 1.21 9.67 827.57 7.42 1266.49

R2 0.25 0.03 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.27 0.05 0.13

BF 0.26 1.11 0.82 1.03 11.70 2.93 1.90 0.99

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-4o. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Okefenokee Class I 

area.

OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -128.51 -179.19 31.20 -51.96 15.38 151.32 -127.01 -83.50

MFE (%) 128.51 179.19 43.66 66.15 92.26 162.36 127.01 83.50

Ap -0.57 -0.56 0.83 -0.13 -0.23 0.04 -0.71 -0.33

NMB (%) -76.36 -92.60 53.82 -31.70 5.19 217.14 -80.36 -56.54

NME (%) 76.36 92.60 61.43 49.69 109.76 270.83 80.36 56.54

MNB (%) -76.48 -92.69 52.43 -31.75 160.17 -8.23 -75.22 -56.79

MNE (%) 76.48 92.69 62.30 51.45 208.59 31.64 75.22 56.79

MB (μg/m3) -14.61 -3.72 3.79 -0.69 0.02 0.59 -1.57 -26.00

MAGE (μg/m3) 14.61 3.72 4.33 1.09 0.41 0.74 1.57 26.00

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.31 4.06 5.77 1.22 0.55 0.88 1.81 27.22

Obs Max (μg/m3) 26.45 8.07 11.63 4.86 1.77 2.07 3.93 52.70

Pred Max (μg/m3) 11.29 3.56 21.29 4.24 1.36 2.15 1.12 35.48

Mean_Obs 19.13 4.02 7.05 2.18 0.37 0.27 1.96 45.99

Mean_Pred 4.52 0.30 10.85 1.49 0.39 0.86 0.38 19.99

Std_Dev_Obs 4.27 1.56 2.04 0.85 0.39 0.61 0.94 5.57

Std_Dev_Pre 3.31 0.77 5.18 1.11 0.32 0.52 0.27 8.41

Variance 234.25 16.49 33.34 1.48 0.31 0.78 3.27 740.97

R2 0.07 0.01 0.28 0.23 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.13

BF 0.24 0.07 1.52 0.68 2.60 0.21 0.25 0.43

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 310

January 18, 2008
 C-21 

Table C-4p. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cape Romain Class I 

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -124.88 -181.06 -94.53 -46.13 12.09 -31.75 -43.14 -122.25

MFE (%) 135.54 181.06 101.08 72.68 84.22 150.25 63.91 126.73

Ap 0.56 -0.57 0.10 -0.25 1.56 -0.80 -0.58 0.06

NMB (%) -59.52 -93.83 -50.21 -35.42 27.07 -75.42 -45.43 -69.84

NME (%) 78.50 93.83 61.05 49.83 104.69 108.25 53.72 74.60

MNB (%) -60.36 -93.35 -56.56 -35.41 71.98 -4.48 -19.27 -70.13

MNE (%) 87.92 93.35 64.79 46.91 115.30 120.19 52.90 76.16

MB (μg/m3) -8.44 -2.51 -1.72 -0.37 0.06 -2.52 -1.23 -27.68

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.13 2.51 2.09 0.53 0.23 3.62 1.46 29.56

RMSE (μg/m3) 12.73 2.73 2.45 0.75 0.37 5.48 2.27 30.48

Obs Max (μg/m3) 26.12 4.50 8.19 5.01 0.65 15.38 8.77 50.02

Pred Max (μg/m3) 40.73 1.93 9.04 3.75 1.66 3.04 3.67 53.00

Mean_Obs 14.19 2.68 3.43 1.06 0.22 3.35 2.71 39.63

Mean_Pred 5.74 0.17 1.71 0.68 0.28 0.82 1.48 11.95

Std_Dev_Obs 6.77 1.02 1.81 1.08 0.18 4.48 2.03 7.68

Std_Dev_Pre 9.02 0.43 2.23 0.93 0.37 0.88 0.88 12.36

Variance 161.99 7.47 5.98 0.56 0.13 30.00 5.16 928.75

R2 0.07 0.00 0.40 0.63 0.05 0.23 0.09 0.05

BF 0.40 0.07 0.43 0.62 1.72 0.75 0.81 0.30

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4q. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the St. Marks Class I 

area.

SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -126.89 -188.67 0.59 -14.74 1.18 160.72 -97.03 -97.60

MFE (%) 137.86 188.67 63.77 63.21 119.22 174.90 100.19 102.93

Ap 0.37 -0.80 1.33 0.82 -0.69 3.18 -0.64 0.28

NMB (%) -68.20 -96.21 45.71 21.88 -42.60 502.57 -67.55 -57.30

NME (%) 80.63 96.21 84.58 78.78 103.88 537.83 69.19 63.73

MNB (%) -60.48 -96.73 40.44 14.39 195.14 3985.28 -60.84 -57.58

MNE (%) 88.12 96.73 85.00 69.07 259.81 4022.29 64.66 64.99

MB (μg/m3) -12.62 -2.70 2.03 0.34 -0.20 0.93 -1.72 -23.78

MAGE (μg/m3) 14.92 2.70 3.76 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.76 26.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.81 2.84 5.77 1.86 0.70 1.37 2.07 28.55

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.51 4.76 9.53 3.98 2.05 1.13 4.89 50.25

Pred Max (μg/m3) 33.63 0.96 22.22 7.25 0.64 4.74 1.75 64.45

Mean_Obs 18.50 2.80 4.45 1.57 0.47 0.19 2.54 41.51

Mean_Pred 5.88 0.11 6.48 1.91 0.27 1.12 0.83 17.73

Std_Dev_Obs 4.41 0.96 1.96 1.04 0.58 0.37 1.09 6.13

Std_Dev_Pre 8.14 0.25 5.95 2.16 0.19 1.16 0.45 16.11

Variance 249.94 8.05 33.28 3.45 0.49 1.87 4.27 814.88

R2 0.02 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.03

BF 0.40 0.03 1.40 1.14 2.95 11.14 0.39 0.42

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 311

January 18, 2008
 C-22 

Table C-4r. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shenandoah Class I 

area.

SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -74.36 25.46 35.69 15.95 133.54 200.00 -62.78 -25.64

MFE (%) 93.26 75.95 50.96 36.84 133.54 200.00 73.10 53.35

Ap 5.97 1.09 5.98 4.44 3.08 -999.00 -0.54 3.27

NMB (%) 4.37 74.12 91.62 50.01 420.15 -999.00 -52.15 6.69

NME (%) 99.60 103.04 107.36 67.27 420.15 -999.00 56.76 56.93

MNB (%) -9.26 79.51 87.61 49.86 901.25 -999.00 -39.38 2.07

MNE (%) 96.56 110.24 100.76 66.81 901.25 -999.00 54.53 57.60

MB (μg/m3) 0.52 3.61 2.55 0.81 0.57 3.12 -0.47 2.16

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.86 5.02 2.99 1.09 0.57 3.12 0.51 18.34

RMSE (μg/m3) 28.13 6.76 7.50 2.78 0.65 3.91 0.61 34.08

Obs Max (μg/m3) 20.73 11.73 5.74 2.68 0.35 0.00 1.92 42.00

Pred Max (μg/m3) 144.46 24.52 40.06 14.58 1.41 8.41 0.89 179.34

Mean_Obs 11.90 4.87 2.78 1.62 0.14 0.00 0.90 32.21

Mean_Pred 12.42 8.48 5.33 2.43 0.71 3.12 0.43 34.37

Std_Dev_Obs 4.19 2.96 1.49 0.69 0.09 0.00 0.49 6.21

Std_Dev_Pre 29.54 6.95 7.90 2.83 0.33 2.40 0.22 36.39

Variance 791.22 45.64 56.28 7.74 0.42 15.25 0.37 1161.58

R2 0.07 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.20 -999.00 0.37 0.12

BF 0.91 1.80 1.88 1.50 10.01 0.00 0.61 1.02

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4s. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shining Rock Class I 

area.

SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -75.84 -81.41 13.51 27.00 123.07 194.49 -1.93 -68.69

MFE (%) 86.97 107.46 56.47 58.31 131.08 194.49 144.41 74.39

Ap 1.86 -0.12 0.39 0.57 3.68 36.95 -0.76 0.70

NMB (%) -32.22 -52.02 30.21 41.98 483.48 9454.52 -69.54 -42.24

NME (%) 62.92 80.62 67.11 68.10 499.53 9454.52 93.21 51.49

MNB (%) -43.15 -17.86 61.34 130.27 1099.73 1414.30 21.60 -44.28

MNE (%) 62.34 93.68 91.14 155.33 1105.94 1414.30 142.80 51.78

MB (μg/m3) -2.64 -0.81 0.74 0.46 0.46 0.92 -0.43 -10.14

MAGE (μg/m3) 5.16 1.25 1.63 0.74 0.47 0.92 0.58 12.36

RMSE (μg/m3) 7.24 1.75 2.33 1.02 0.59 1.32 0.82 14.01

Obs Max (μg/m3) 13.73 4.65 6.13 2.31 0.28 0.10 2.87 31.05

Pred Max (μg/m3) 39.24 4.09 8.51 3.63 1.29 3.81 0.68 52.94

Mean_Obs 8.19 1.55 2.43 1.09 0.09 0.01 0.62 24.00

Mean_Pred 5.55 0.75 3.17 1.55 0.55 0.93 0.19 13.86

Std_Dev_Obs 4.17 1.30 1.31 0.58 0.08 0.03 0.70 5.96

Std_Dev_Pre 8.28 1.00 2.05 0.98 0.38 0.97 0.14 10.91

Variance 52.35 3.08 5.44 1.05 0.35 1.75 0.68 196.33

R2 0.31 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.19

BF 0.57 0.79 1.61 2.30 12.00 2.52 0.86 0.56

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 312

January 18, 2008
 C-23 

Table C-4t. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -106.85 -109.16 -9.15 -54.86 77.60 200.00 -117.27 -69.04

MFE (%) 120.51 109.41 40.17 64.97 113.99 200.00 117.27 78.81

Ap 1.69 -0.33 0.70 -0.04 -0.14 -999.00 -0.74 1.04

NMB (%) -47.35 -56.06 8.56 -36.07 120.89 -999.00 -76.03 -41.33

NME (%) 84.16 56.35 41.07 46.35 198.21 -999.00 76.03 57.32

MNB (%) -53.46 -61.27 2.84 -34.17 389.14 -999.00 -71.89 -42.53

MNE (%) 82.66 61.52 39.22 48.53 410.41 -999.00 71.89 57.28

MB (μg/m3) -9.62 -4.46 0.59 -0.98 0.65 3.74 -1.76 -21.39

MAGE (μg/m3) 17.11 4.49 2.83 1.26 1.06 3.74 1.76 29.67

RMSE (μg/m3) 21.62 6.66 3.79 1.53 1.30 4.54 2.07 32.63

Obs Max (μg/m3) 36.05 21.36 11.04 4.69 2.95 0.00 4.24 61.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 97.08 14.24 18.78 4.49 2.52 9.09 1.12 125.72

Mean_Obs 20.32 7.96 6.89 2.72 0.54 0.00 2.31 51.75

Mean_Pred 10.70 3.50 7.48 1.74 1.19 3.74 0.55 30.36

Std_Dev_Obs 6.48 5.30 2.40 1.08 0.67 0.00 1.17 6.11

Std_Dev_Pre 20.91 4.28 5.23 1.17 0.75 2.64 0.29 26.57

Variance 467.50 44.35 14.40 2.35 1.70 20.58 4.28 1064.78

R2 0.10 0.21 0.54 0.19 0.10 -999.00 0.08 0.11

BF 0.47 0.39 1.03 0.66 4.89 0.00 0.28 0.57

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-4u. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Swanquarter Class I 

area.

SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -136.66 -161.55 -38.76 -28.09 46.67 34.79 -118.19 -118.69

MFE (%) 138.38 170.70 62.73 58.61 109.65 173.91 118.19 120.57

Ap -0.13 1.44 2.83 1.96 0.27 -0.67 -0.60 0.18

NMB (%) -74.90 -69.17 11.83 17.63 96.96 -46.99 -72.45 -68.09

NME (%) 77.12 92.56 65.71 77.26 189.16 134.86 72.45 70.44

MNB (%) -76.02 -77.95 -12.66 83.61 335.71 -81.74 -73.26 -69.58

MNE (%) 77.94 92.54 56.88 146.06 375.39 81.74 73.26 71.69

MB (μg/m3) -9.68 -1.72 0.37 0.18 0.16 -0.66 -2.15 -24.60

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.97 2.30 2.06 0.80 0.31 1.89 2.15 25.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 10.90 2.57 4.25 1.71 0.42 3.11 2.37 26.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 21.09 4.21 6.60 2.59 0.87 11.33 6.25 42.25

Pred Max (μg/m3) 18.25 10.24 25.28 7.65 1.11 3.69 2.53 49.97

Mean_Obs 12.93 2.48 3.14 1.04 0.16 1.40 2.97 36.13

Mean_Pred 3.24 0.77 3.51 1.22 0.32 0.74 0.82 11.53

Std_Dev_Obs 3.88 0.85 1.44 0.75 0.19 2.68 1.42 3.96

Std_Dev_Pre 4.36 2.22 5.35 1.84 0.32 1.02 0.60 11.96

Variance 118.84 6.61 18.09 2.91 0.18 9.70 5.63 710.89

R2 0.05 0.23 0.60 0.11 0.03 0.08 0.62 0.26

BF 0.24 0.22 0.87 1.84 4.36 0.09 0.27 0.30

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 313

January 18, 2008
 C-24 

Table C-4v. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Upper Buffalo Class I 

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -138.41 -121.02 -23.25 -46.69 93.32 199.90 -110.88 -88.95

MFE (%) 139.43 121.02 44.59 56.99 108.59 199.90 126.30 90.01

Ap -0.07 -0.37 -0.11 0.36 2.20 1232.47 -0.85 0.00

NMB (%) -77.41 -71.02 -13.97 -31.38 262.69 767627.06 -78.16 -58.54

NME (%) 79.10 71.02 36.99 43.46 275.35 767627.06 81.63 59.75

MNB (%) -78.49 -70.21 -11.36 -29.34 1615.30 17510.96 -57.49 -57.86

MNE (%) 79.56 70.21 37.29 42.69 1625.86 17510.96 84.47 58.99

MB (μg/m3) -8.11 -3.62 -0.67 -0.54 0.95 3.28 -2.71 -21.59

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.28 3.62 1.76 0.74 1.00 3.28 2.83 22.04

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.10 4.57 2.03 0.88 1.19 4.05 3.42 23.65

Obs Max (μg/m3) 19.65 12.68 8.70 2.65 0.81 0.01 8.94 44.16

Pred Max (μg/m3) 18.27 7.98 7.73 3.60 2.58 11.59 1.31 44.17

Mean_Obs 10.47 5.10 4.77 1.71 0.36 0.00 3.47 36.88

Mean_Pred 2.36 1.48 4.10 1.17 1.32 3.28 0.76 15.29

Std_Dev_Obs 4.10 3.60 1.70 0.47 0.17 0.00 2.13 5.26

Std_Dev_Pre 3.75 1.87 2.09 0.74 0.63 2.44 0.33 8.88

Variance 82.79 20.90 4.14 0.78 1.41 16.42 11.68 559.29

R2 0.18 0.38 0.23 0.12 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01

BF 0.22 0.30 0.89 0.71 17.15 8.00 0.43 0.42

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5a. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days across Class I areas in the 

12 km VISTAS grid. 

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.82 -121.18 -32.08 -63.17 22.51 188.69 -87.88 -49.58

MFE (%) 74.05 146.07 50.78 70.50 69.91 191.96 115.76 60.44

Ap -0.50 0.44 -0.83 -0.28 -0.43 8.80 -0.65 -0.43

NMB (%) -39.35 -18.22 -29.24 -42.51 36.38 18564.68 -69.20 -32.51

NME (%) 50.22 87.96 48.66 52.21 97.47 18666.07 74.92 44.58

MNB (%) -38.14 -39.83 -15.63 -41.16 156.91 7919.56 -39.56 -29.87

MNE (%) 51.57 102.75 43.37 51.71 189.98 7956.43 88.73 44.15

MB (μg/m3) -48.14 -1.38 -6.15 -2.24 0.38 12.46 -2.26 -55.75

MAGE (μg/m3) 61.44 6.66 10.23 2.75 1.01 12.52 2.44 76.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 82.20 13.69 28.78 3.59 1.79 20.70 3.53 101.79

Obs Max (μg/m3) 475.66 107.80 614.69 41.23 16.92 11.70 20.96 735.80

Pred Max (μg/m3) 235.90 154.76 102.23 29.67 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01

Mean_Obs 122.36 7.57 21.03 5.26 1.04 0.07 3.26 171.51

Mean_Pred 74.22 6.19 14.88 3.03 1.42 12.52 1.01 115.76

Std_Dev_Obs 68.78 14.02 31.42 3.03 1.23 0.57 2.77 72.23

Std_Dev_Pre 59.70 18.80 12.73 3.01 1.23 16.52 1.03 74.73

Variance 6757.49 187.38 828.03 12.88 3.20 428.51 12.47 10360.90

R2 0.22 0.48 0.20 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.11

BF 0.62 0.60 0.84 0.59 2.57 4.23 0.58 0.70

N 512 512 510 510 512 512 512 512

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 314

January 18, 2008
 C-25 

Table C-5b. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Breton Island Class I 

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -108.00 -197.37 -85.96 -103.52 -39.07 138.89 -103.81 -108.13

MFE (%) 113.52 197.37 88.07 103.52 106.38 165.39 103.81 109.77

Ap -0.13 -0.96 -0.75 -0.68 -0.84 1.71 -0.37 -0.25

NMB (%) -58.22 -98.65 -60.76 -69.59 -60.95 572.95 -61.85 -62.38

NME (%) 64.22 98.65 62.79 69.59 99.61 650.61 61.85 63.98

MNB (%) -60.00 -99.31 -53.74 -66.26 39.75 76.21 -63.36 -62.99

MNE (%) 66.37 99.31 56.03 66.26 126.72 130.85 63.36 64.73

MB (μg/m3) -42.55 -8.04 -5.76 -3.05 -0.78 1.64 -2.74 -69.94

MAGE (μg/m3) 46.94 8.04 5.95 3.05 1.28 1.87 2.74 71.73

RMSE (μg/m3) 52.63 10.62 10.17 3.77 2.59 2.49 3.16 79.19

Obs Max (μg/m3) 126.22 29.70 46.34 12.96 11.47 1.93 10.72 171.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 109.49 1.16 11.69 4.20 1.84 5.21 6.78 129.27

Mean_Obs 73.10 8.15 9.47 4.38 1.28 0.29 4.44 112.12

Mean_Pred 30.54 0.11 3.72 1.33 0.50 1.93 1.69 42.17

Std_Dev_Obs 18.79 7.30 10.41 2.76 2.32 0.55 2.01 19.64

Std_Dev_Pre 34.94 0.30 3.36 0.93 0.52 1.69 1.72 40.19

Variance 2770.25 112.76 103.42 14.21 6.70 6.18 9.96 6270.32

R2 0.19 0.55 0.44 0.43 0.08 0.07 0.42 0.13

BF 0.40 0.01 0.46 0.34 1.40 0.51 0.37 0.37

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5c. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Brigantine Class I 

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -68.36 -54.70 -42.36 -16.55 25.67 197.35 -96.66 -44.58

MFE (%) 76.35 101.20 51.78 34.66 67.60 197.35 133.02 55.90

Ap -0.28 0.60 -0.83 -0.28 -0.44 17.73 -0.92 -0.70

NMB (%) -44.01 58.77 -63.48 -14.87 38.85 16306.94 -81.39 -38.91

NME (%) 53.83 103.33 67.06 30.43 98.91 16306.94 84.05 48.12

MNB (%) -43.87 -1.06 -27.55 -7.43 133.28 486.75 -76.23 -28.70

MNE (%) 54.42 87.49 40.23 34.29 162.56 486.75 76.23 42.52

MB (μg/m3) -53.74 7.87 -31.03 -1.17 0.43 8.35 -3.53 -81.61

MAGE (μg/m3) 65.73 13.84 32.78 2.40 1.08 8.35 3.64 100.93

RMSE (μg/m3) 77.68 25.55 110.38 3.47 1.68 9.45 5.34 154.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 275.18 71.94 614.69 41.23 6.83 1.13 20.65 735.80

Pred Max (μg/m3) 197.92 115.45 102.23 29.67 3.80 21.08 1.62 223.13

Mean_Obs 122.10 13.40 48.89 7.88 1.10 0.05 4.34 209.75

Mean_Pred 68.36 21.27 17.86 6.71 1.52 8.40 0.81 128.14

Std_Dev_Obs 60.77 16.68 127.43 7.80 1.30 0.24 4.16 133.57

Std_Dev_Pre 52.55 37.68 20.47 5.76 1.05 4.52 0.31 56.24

Variance 6034.93 652.70 12184.42 12.05 2.83 89.35 28.56 23754.77

R2 0.24 0.74 0.88 0.85 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04

BF 0.56 0.99 0.72 0.93 2.33 0.27 0.22 0.71

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 315

January 18, 2008
 C-26 

Table C-5d. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Caney Creek Class I 

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -69.34 -45.08 -7.66 -68.17 31.62 190.50 -113.64 -43.67

MFE (%) 73.49 94.78 32.17 68.17 57.31 190.50 122.51 52.94

Ap -0.46 0.69 -0.12 -0.34 -0.26 20.76 -0.81 -0.25

NMB (%) -46.53 23.99 -3.37 -49.45 29.65 24425.54 -79.04 -30.60

NME (%) 50.44 86.91 28.24 49.45 81.70 24425.54 79.74 40.54

MNB (%) -45.19 17.81 0.41 -48.37 140.50 1964.48 -61.55 -26.81

MNE (%) 50.01 99.08 30.62 48.37 158.09 1964.48 79.67 40.75

MB (μg/m3) -50.95 2.45 -0.66 -2.16 0.42 14.33 -3.40 -49.12

MAGE (μg/m3) 55.22 8.88 5.55 2.16 1.16 14.33 3.43 65.08

RMSE (μg/m3) 78.07 23.14 7.96 2.46 1.88 16.37 3.94 92.23

Obs Max (μg/m3) 281.03 70.57 51.07 7.26 6.70 1.35 7.89 324.07

Pred Max (μg/m3) 151.79 119.16 44.88 4.82 4.98 29.35 1.46 244.51

Mean_Obs 109.50 10.22 19.65 4.38 1.43 0.06 4.30 160.52

Mean_Pred 58.54 12.67 18.99 2.21 1.85 14.38 0.90 111.40

Std_Dev_Obs 61.21 17.65 10.63 1.38 1.34 0.28 1.98 59.45

Std_Dev_Pre 44.67 27.86 10.96 1.04 1.01 8.19 0.32 65.64

Variance 6095.27 535.44 63.35 6.06 3.54 267.87 15.53 8506.03

R2 0.15 0.30 0.52 0.29 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.04

BF 0.55 1.18 1.00 0.52 2.41 0.90 0.38 0.73

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-5e. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Chassahowitzka 

Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.60 -120.68 -35.75 -30.28 103.28 200.00 -20.70 -16.94

MFE (%) 65.36 143.24 47.42 50.30 115.65 200.00 41.49 34.42

Ap 0.63 1.18 -0.34 0.35 0.04 -999.00 -0.48 0.51

NMB (%) -30.52 -46.96 -29.64 -18.68 199.83 -999.00 -24.95 -9.49

NME (%) 45.19 90.60 40.89 44.17 239.31 -999.00 41.42 31.54

MNB (%) -36.55 -38.40 -24.84 -16.13 522.15 -999.00 -9.21 -10.29

MNE (%) 47.47 100.64 38.58 45.44 531.13 -999.00 37.57 31.36

MB (μg/m3) -23.98 -2.50 -6.10 -1.16 1.31 28.97 -0.67 -11.87

MAGE (μg/m3) 35.52 4.83 8.42 2.73 1.57 28.97 1.11 39.44

RMSE (μg/m3) 40.90 6.12 11.22 3.14 1.84 30.72 1.65 44.81

Obs Max (μg/m3) 121.53 9.87 71.19 10.37 3.58 0.00 6.40 169.84

Pred Max (μg/m3) 198.53 21.47 46.83 14.02 3.71 58.76 3.31 256.55

Mean_Obs 78.59 5.33 20.60 6.19 0.66 0.00 2.69 125.05

Mean_Pred 54.61 2.83 14.49 5.03 1.97 28.97 2.02 113.18

Std_Dev_Obs 22.96 2.23 14.55 1.97 0.74 0.00 1.34 19.06

Std_Dev_Pre 46.76 5.23 10.49 3.27 0.87 10.47 0.50 50.42

Variance 1673.04 37.40 125.95 9.83 3.38 943.77 2.73 2007.87

R2 0.53 0.00 0.56 0.19 0.11 -999.00 0.07 0.25

BF 0.63 0.62 0.75 0.84 6.22 0.00 0.91 0.90

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 316

January 18, 2008
 C-27 

Table C-5f. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -64.44 -114.37 -8.34 -64.29 4.78 190.48 45.44 -51.06

MFE (%) 73.26 131.32 41.25 76.94 46.01 190.48 141.50 59.52

Ap -0.48 1.00 -0.17 -0.03 -0.15 -999.00 -0.85 -0.44

NMB (%) -48.01 -40.98 -3.97 -41.16 6.48 -999.00 -65.26 -39.23

NME (%) 54.69 87.80 50.87 57.36 50.78 -999.00 100.69 46.26

MNB (%) -40.29 -55.39 9.05 -38.89 40.67 -999.00 -25.45 -33.00

MNE (%) 50.79 83.95 45.41 58.09 72.18 -999.00 70.16 42.53

MB (μg/m3) -88.61 -1.87 -1.03 -2.07 0.07 10.91 -1.11 -91.72

MAGE (μg/m3) 100.93 4.01 13.15 2.88 0.56 10.91 1.71 108.16

RMSE (μg/m3) 126.52 5.37 21.92 3.25 0.81 12.79 3.03 138.10

Obs Max (μg/m3) 376.51 16.47 96.66 9.78 3.19 0.00 9.23 507.89

Pred Max (μg/m3) 194.78 32.90 80.36 9.48 2.69 29.03 1.37 282.09

Mean_Obs 184.56 4.57 25.85 5.03 1.10 0.00 1.70 233.80

Mean_Pred 95.95 2.70 24.83 2.96 1.17 10.91 0.59 142.08

Std_Dev_Obs 81.83 3.53 18.12 1.51 0.59 0.00 2.77 91.26

Std_Dev_Pre 52.37 7.17 17.61 2.35 0.55 6.84 0.28 66.55

Variance 16006.81 28.82 480.69 10.57 0.66 163.56 9.17 19072.43

R2 0.01 0.54 0.04 0.03 0.00 -999.00 0.13 0.02

BF 0.60 0.45 1.09 0.61 1.41 0.00 0.43 0.67

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-5g. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Dolly Sods Class I 

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -72.68 -116.04 -46.04 -106.64 -18.55 191.30 -133.53 -70.32

MFE (%) 79.52 127.19 65.52 106.64 42.44 191.30 133.53 75.20

Ap -0.45 0.19 -0.37 -0.73 -0.37 -999.00 -0.93 -0.46

NMB (%) -47.87 -60.19 -34.19 -69.89 -17.51 -999.00 -86.58 -47.83

NME (%) 54.04 77.85 49.85 69.89 34.44 -999.00 86.58 52.21

MNB (%) -45.39 -58.71 -26.38 -68.33 3.88 -999.00 -77.99 -45.29

MNE (%) 53.23 75.27 50.74 68.33 49.74 -999.00 77.99 50.65

MB (μg/m3) -73.37 -1.72 -4.04 -2.89 -0.14 3.03 -1.36 -88.24

MAGE (μg/m3) 82.83 2.23 5.89 2.89 0.28 3.03 1.36 96.32

RMSE (μg/m3) 113.35 2.55 6.91 3.11 0.38 3.37 1.78 129.42

Obs Max (μg/m3) 404.99 5.69 26.51 7.50 1.78 0.00 4.85 451.54

Pred Max (μg/m3) 223.28 6.78 16.74 2.06 1.11 5.67 0.34 243.89

Mean_Obs 153.28 2.86 11.82 4.14 0.82 0.00 1.57 184.51

Mean_Pred 79.91 1.14 7.78 1.25 0.68 3.03 0.21 96.26

Std_Dev_Obs 78.10 1.10 5.71 1.22 0.32 0.00 1.21 80.44

Std_Dev_Pre 63.83 1.73 4.41 0.43 0.29 1.51 0.07 68.63

Variance 12847.43 6.53 47.69 9.70 0.14 11.38 3.18 16750.30

R2 0.06 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.10 -999.00 0.32 0.03

BF 0.55 0.41 0.74 0.32 1.04 0.00 0.22 0.55

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 317

January 18, 2008
 C-28 

Table C-5h. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Everglades Class I 

area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -78.63 -193.20 -20.53 -23.81 -1.47 146.26 -106.69 -72.38

MFE (%) 92.21 193.20 60.07 60.39 102.54 182.68 106.69 81.65

Ap 0.30 -0.92 -0.77 0.09 -0.84 0.02 -0.77 -0.24

NMB (%) -34.44 -97.70 -40.91 -20.12 -37.65 365.97 -75.50 -42.18

NME (%) 56.66 97.70 68.37 46.07 111.98 526.54 75.50 54.59

MNB (%) -42.02 -98.16 3.60 -16.04 116.22 27.90 -66.00 -41.14

MNE (%) 60.29 98.16 52.64 41.20 179.95 127.20 66.00 52.69

MB (μg/m3) -13.47 -3.75 -7.39 -0.95 -0.50 2.67 -2.44 -34.61

MAGE (μg/m3) 22.15 3.75 12.35 2.18 1.50 3.84 2.44 44.79

RMSE (μg/m3) 26.53 4.08 29.80 3.20 3.59 5.05 3.57 58.45

Obs Max (μg/m3) 79.12 8.02 134.42 10.81 16.92 11.70 13.75 196.06

Pred Max (μg/m3) 103.14 0.67 31.29 11.74 2.74 11.92 3.18 149.58

Mean_Obs 39.10 3.84 18.06 4.74 1.34 0.73 3.23 82.04

Mean_Pred 25.63 0.09 10.67 3.79 0.84 3.40 0.79 47.43

Std_Dev_Obs 17.43 1.72 27.39 2.70 3.37 2.41 2.64 28.80

Std_Dev_Pre 28.94 0.17 8.82 3.09 0.81 3.01 0.63 42.20

Variance 704.09 16.68 887.81 10.22 12.91 25.47 12.75 3416.20

R2 0.35 0.19 0.01 0.18 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.01

BF 0.58 0.02 1.04 0.80 2.16 0.27 0.34 0.59

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5i. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Great Smokey 

Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.76 -163.78 -1.34 -63.89 1.23 200.00 -100.86 -52.84

MFE (%) 65.31 197.12 37.84 64.35 43.61 200.00 124.35 54.90

Ap -0.31 -0.85 0.42 -0.25 0.74 -999.00 -0.83 -0.20

NMB (%) -43.46 -97.29 -0.61 -46.94 5.71 -999.00 -80.08 -38.18

NME (%) 44.65 97.64 39.61 47.41 43.59 -999.00 83.61 39.87

MNB (%) -43.44 -99.12 13.10 -46.37 48.53 -999.00 -27.41 -37.69

MNE (%) 45.09 99.12 44.16 46.84 80.70 -999.00 107.85 39.86

MB (μg/m3) -73.15 -2.67 -0.11 -2.25 0.06 7.32 -1.63 -79.67

MAGE (μg/m3) 75.14 2.68 7.46 2.28 0.42 7.32 1.70 83.20

RMSE (μg/m3) 92.01 3.23 10.13 2.54 0.57 8.15 2.15 100.92

Obs Max (μg/m3) 308.51 10.16 33.88 7.71 1.52 0.00 4.89 347.18

Pred Max (μg/m3) 212.34 1.54 47.97 5.81 2.66 17.08 0.82 277.94

Mean_Obs 168.29 2.75 18.83 4.80 0.97 0.00 2.03 208.67

Mean_Pred 95.15 0.07 18.71 2.55 1.02 7.32 0.40 129.00

Std_Dev_Obs 64.74 2.07 7.77 1.29 0.37 0.00 1.42 65.71

Std_Dev_Pre 58.12 0.31 8.98 1.16 0.53 3.68 0.15 66.87

Variance 8466.67 10.42 102.61 6.47 0.32 66.48 4.61 10185.05

R2 0.33 0.56 0.06 0.27 0.04 -999.00 0.00 0.30

BF 0.57 0.01 1.13 0.54 1.49 0.00 0.73 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 318

January 18, 2008
 C-29 

Table C-5j. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Hercules Glade Class I 

area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -62.64 -64.72 -31.35 -67.72 88.94 192.00 -37.50 -27.40

MFE (%) 73.75 95.79 40.17 67.72 93.38 192.00 51.55 43.36

Ap -0.54 -0.19 -0.33 -0.31 0.80 -999.00 -0.58 -0.45

NMB (%) -39.63 -21.48 -26.27 -48.11 176.06 -999.00 -36.57 -19.99

NME (%) 52.05 55.67 35.45 48.11 190.77 -999.00 47.96 36.40

MNB (%) -37.25 -18.60 -22.76 -48.54 330.59 -999.00 -23.65 -14.88

MNE (%) 52.07 75.95 33.30 48.54 334.07 -999.00 40.40 34.41

MB (μg/m3) -41.28 -3.14 -4.77 -2.39 1.84 28.38 -1.05 -31.35

MAGE (μg/m3) 54.21 8.13 6.44 2.39 1.99 28.38 1.38 57.08

RMSE (μg/m3) 82.66 16.53 8.68 2.63 2.53 30.85 1.93 90.89

Obs Max (μg/m3) 339.47 99.26 42.42 9.36 4.42 0.00 8.18 377.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 155.36 80.27 28.32 6.45 7.97 47.45 3.41 207.61

Mean_Obs 104.15 14.60 18.16 4.96 1.04 0.00 2.88 156.80

Mean_Pred 62.87 11.47 13.39 2.57 2.88 28.38 1.83 125.46

Std_Dev_Obs 61.34 27.70 8.58 1.45 0.82 0.00 1.57 52.29

Std_Dev_Pre 49.77 22.81 6.10 1.33 1.52 12.33 0.63 59.02

Variance 6832.22 273.09 75.41 6.90 6.43 951.43 3.74 8260.55

R2 0.02 0.64 0.29 0.46 0.01 -999.00 0.00 0.05

BF 0.63 0.81 0.77 0.51 4.31 0.00 0.76 0.85

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Table C-5k. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the James Rover Face 

Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -44.05 -161.63 -45.20 -99.63 -17.57 200.00 -151.62 -46.37

MFE (%) 55.27 173.62 50.38 99.63 35.59 200.00 151.62 52.93

Ap -0.23 0.64 -0.74 -0.70 -0.76 -999.00 -0.96 -0.27

NMB (%) -29.70 -72.08 -45.42 -66.94 -25.82 -999.00 -88.49 -33.54

NME (%) 40.79 96.06 47.83 66.94 36.46 -999.00 88.49 39.47

MNB (%) -27.68 -77.76 -32.72 -65.82 -5.07 -999.00 -85.78 -32.04

MNE (%) 41.58 96.60 38.51 65.82 36.00 -999.00 85.78 39.68

MB (μg/m3) -48.04 -3.12 -11.73 -4.71 -0.28 6.09 -2.62 -71.76

MAGE (μg/m3) 65.98 4.16 12.36 4.71 0.39 6.09 2.62 84.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 78.63 4.57 23.32 5.01 0.79 6.47 3.13 97.61

Obs Max (μg/m3) 274.58 8.70 119.43 11.72 4.58 0.00 10.28 324.44

Pred Max (μg/m3) 212.68 14.24 30.79 3.53 1.11 9.46 0.44 237.97

Mean_Obs 161.76 4.33 25.83 7.03 1.07 0.00 2.96 213.98

Mean_Pred 113.71 1.21 14.10 2.32 0.79 6.09 0.34 142.22

Std_Dev_Obs 44.65 1.96 23.46 1.98 0.80 0.00 1.76 52.76

Std_Dev_Pre 62.85 3.39 6.34 0.64 0.21 2.23 0.07 65.78

Variance 6182.14 20.87 543.67 25.14 0.62 41.85 9.82 9528.45

R2 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.22 0.13 -999.00 0.00 0.13

BF 0.72 0.22 0.67 0.34 0.95 0.00 0.14 0.68

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 319

January 18, 2008
 C-30 

Table C-5l. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Linville Gorge Class I 

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -62.93 -150.69 -30.70 -87.63 -18.24 196.89 -153.13 -57.00

MFE (%) 67.74 159.27 40.91 87.63 31.41 196.89 153.13 60.02

Ap -0.19 -0.02 0.15 -0.33 0.08 3.84 -0.82 -0.23

NMB (%) -39.98 -71.27 -23.15 -59.18 -15.85 5689.19 -86.95 -38.66

NME (%) 44.99 82.09 32.56 59.18 28.30 5689.19 86.95 41.53

MNB (%) -41.43 -74.75 -21.29 -59.63 -11.88 384.10 -86.53 -39.51

MNE (%) 46.79 85.40 33.45 59.63 27.35 384.10 86.53 42.81

MB (μg/m3) -58.86 -1.63 -3.65 -2.69 -0.13 5.25 -2.09 -71.19

MAGE (μg/m3) 66.23 1.88 5.14 2.69 0.23 5.25 2.09 76.47

RMSE (μg/m3) 75.30 2.08 6.40 2.81 0.29 5.68 2.19 87.22

Obs Max (μg/m3) 290.29 4.53 31.89 6.06 1.27 2.03 4.03 343.89

Pred Max (μg/m3) 235.90 4.41 36.79 4.06 1.37 9.82 0.75 266.44

Mean_Obs 147.22 2.29 15.77 4.55 0.81 0.09 2.40 184.14

Mean_Pred 88.35 0.66 12.12 1.86 0.68 5.34 0.31 112.95

Std_Dev_Obs 49.16 0.94 6.92 0.97 0.26 0.43 0.74 52.20

Std_Dev_Pre 60.94 1.28 7.33 0.84 0.30 2.38 0.14 65.76

Variance 5669.60 4.34 41.00 7.88 0.09 32.28 4.81 7607.62

R2 0.41 0.10 0.51 0.36 0.29 0.18 0.29 0.41

BF 0.59 0.25 0.79 0.40 0.88 0.22 0.13 0.60

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5m. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mammoth Cave 

Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -65.12 -134.11 -64.77 -68.22 37.17 183.33 73.57 -57.57

MFE (%) 68.90 147.55 66.39 68.22 55.41 183.33 156.43 60.57

Ap -0.38 -0.37 0.07 -0.25 -0.53 -999.00 -0.69 -0.39

NMB (%) -46.69 -57.44 -44.40 -49.42 22.76 -999.00 -28.66 -42.27

NME (%) 49.96 65.21 46.28 49.42 72.16 -999.00 117.76 44.92

MNB (%) -41.05 -64.03 -45.70 -48.73 103.82 -999.00 23.87 -37.74

MNE (%) 45.22 84.58 47.41 48.73 117.45 -999.00 124.55 41.05

MB (μg/m3) -83.29 -5.79 -9.61 -2.75 0.29 13.40 -0.32 -96.83

MAGE (μg/m3) 89.11 6.58 10.02 2.75 0.93 13.40 1.31 102.89

RMSE (μg/m3) 120.48 10.17 11.30 3.15 1.58 15.17 1.60 136.14

Obs Max (μg/m3) 347.31 107.80 40.53 9.05 8.22 0.00 4.63 405.74

Pred Max (μg/m3) 216.80 68.26 43.56 6.76 3.90 25.46 1.41 246.32

Mean_Obs 178.37 10.09 21.64 5.57 1.28 0.00 1.11 229.07

Mean_Pred 95.08 4.29 12.03 2.82 1.58 13.40 0.79 132.24

Std_Dev_Obs 68.00 21.11 7.98 1.75 1.55 0.00 1.56 65.54

Std_Dev_Pre 56.54 13.85 8.66 1.42 0.69 7.28 0.27 65.53

Variance 14514.27 103.51269 127.72 9.90 2.51 230.24 2.55 18532.89

R2 0.00 0.93 0.54 0.29 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.01

BF 0.59 0.36 0.54 0.51 2.04 0.00 0.62 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 320

January 18, 2008
 C-31 

Table C-5n. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -20.59 -53.58 -22.20 -18.82 107.61 190.54 -13.23 20.38

MFE (%) 66.65 111.83 49.34 43.70 113.87 190.54 37.67 54.93

Ap -0.13 0.07 -0.22 -0.25 0.45 72.50 -0.38 0.46

NMB (%) 4.74 30.45 -27.80 -22.91 206.49 87137.63 -21.72 40.81

NME (%) 59.76 64.63 44.49 40.91 227.86 87137.63 36.98 65.30

MNB (%) 6.00 58.25 5.73 1.02 587.75 13729.83 -3.73 47.74

MNE (%) 65.16 150.88 56.28 48.24 592.40 13729.83 36.45 69.83

MB (μg/m3) 5.35 6.29 -4.29 -1.12 2.99 69.04 -1.12 69.50

MAGE (μg/m3) 67.43 13.36 6.87 2.00 3.30 69.04 1.91 111.22

RMSE (μg/m3) 83.82 21.83 9.85 2.64 3.77 76.00 2.60 136.16

Obs Max (μg/m3) 263.55 105.09 40.46 10.36 6.65 1.56 11.69 287.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 228.22 112.07 31.38 7.75 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01

Mean_Obs 112.84 20.67 15.43 4.89 1.45 0.08 5.15 170.33

Mean_Pred 118.19 26.96 11.14 3.77 4.44 69.12 4.03 239.83

Std_Dev_Obs 63.96 30.73 10.19 2.42 1.37 0.33 2.83 43.37

Std_Dev_Pre 88.99 38.04 6.24 1.47 1.73 32.57 1.04 111.15

Variance 7025.62 476.67 97.08 6.99 14.18 5776.49 6.75 18538.89

R2 0.17 0.68 0.22 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.32 0.00

BF 1.06 1.58 1.06 1.01 6.88 12.57 0.96 1.48

N 22 22 20 20 22 22 22 22

Table C-5o. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Okefenokee Class I 

area.

OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -79.19 -151.20 -7.49 -66.68 18.36 193.37 -117.48 -60.64

MFE (%) 79.72 153.54 42.51 78.30 75.40 193.37 121.37 60.64

Ap -0.23 -0.62 -0.49 -0.21 0.42 5.42 -0.71 -0.10

NMB (%) -49.55 -78.69 -18.89 -42.37 30.38 6970.71 -79.40 -43.75

NME (%) 50.03 80.92 50.95 62.56 90.15 6970.71 80.10 43.75

MNB (%) -52.76 -80.49 6.44 -39.32 296.99 62.41 -68.22 -42.38

MNE (%) 53.31 83.19 39.20 60.73 338.55 62.41 72.60 42.38

MB (μg/m3) -47.55 -4.38 -6.64 -3.20 0.24 4.11 -2.14 -69.45

MAGE (μg/m3) 48.02 4.51 17.90 4.72 0.72 4.11 2.16 69.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 57.10 5.46 37.27 7.22 0.93 4.49 2.47 88.19

Obs Max (μg/m3) 271.57 15.83 156.35 29.54 1.57 1.36 4.79 341.01

Pred Max (μg/m3) 208.50 6.03 80.47 23.21 2.23 8.70 1.41 308.25

Mean_Obs 95.97 5.57 35.14 7.54 0.79 0.06 2.69 158.76

Mean_Pred 48.41 1.19 28.50 4.35 1.04 4.17 0.55 89.30

Std_Dev_Obs 57.98 3.49 32.48 6.19 0.45 0.28 1.33 60.33

Std_Dev_Pre 44.25 1.86 19.09 5.04 0.59 1.75 0.33 57.69

Variance 3260.75 29.83 1388.71 52.15 0.86 20.15 6.12 7777.06

R2 0.69 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.06 0.09 0.31

BF 0.47 0.20 1.06 0.61 3.97 0.07 0.32 0.58

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 321

January 18, 2008
 C-32 

Table C-5p. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cape Romain Class I 

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.37 -143.06 -55.60 -71.38 19.21 200.00 -17.45 -51.44

MFE (%) 73.61 169.89 59.90 73.52 93.27 200.00 88.22 62.26

Ap -0.31 3.18 -0.25 -0.08 0.66 -999.00 -0.16 -0.30

NMB (%) -38.82 -13.25 -36.31 -41.50 54.48 -999.00 -35.45 -35.48

NME (%) 57.49 135.58 44.40 46.11 122.86 -999.00 63.08 47.16

MNB (%) -29.54 -30.23 -36.69 -48.41 204.20 -999.00 327.16 -30.91

MNE (%) 53.90 131.34 42.01 50.87 254.18 -999.00 396.06 45.14

MB (μg/m3) -33.72 -0.69 -7.33 -2.27 0.38 6.16 -0.91 -47.20

MAGE (μg/m3) 49.93 7.06 8.97 2.53 0.85 6.16 1.62 62.73

RMSE (μg/m3) 67.15 12.07 14.36 2.93 1.06 7.11 2.10 79.95

Obs Max (μg/m3) 234.53 13.18 70.65 14.42 1.77 0.00 7.17 270.34

Pred Max (μg/m3) 162.03 55.10 52.73 13.30 2.93 13.62 6.04 189.41

Mean_Obs 86.86 5.21 20.20 5.48 0.69 0.00 2.57 133.01

Mean_Pred 53.14 4.52 12.86 3.21 1.07 6.16 1.66 85.82

Std_Dev_Obs 49.18 2.74 15.93 3.04 0.40 0.00 1.72 46.84

Std_Dev_Pre 39.67 12.76 12.71 3.08 0.82 3.62 1.15 49.11

Variance 4508.59 145.67 206.27 8.57 1.12 50.58 4.39 6392.06

R2 0.01 0.07 0.40 0.66 0.08 -999.00 0.02 0.00

BF 0.70 0.70 0.63 0.52 3.04 0.00 4.27 0.69

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5q. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the St. Marks Class I 

area.

SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -65.33 -155.89 -5.70 -36.19 7.23 199.98 -92.52 -53.12

MFE (%) 69.16 155.89 53.89 56.79 89.12 199.98 97.18 56.84

Ap -0.06 -0.53 0.24 0.61 -0.16 1920.06 -0.34 -0.03

NMB (%) -40.40 -74.41 0.20 -4.63 26.17 1762079.63 -62.69 -34.34

NME (%) 45.02 74.41 50.55 56.59 110.11 1762079.63 64.18 38.46

MNB (%) -42.17 -83.45 18.88 -10.13 268.57 113272.12 -57.20 -35.23

MNE (%) 46.35 83.45 58.03 56.61 322.15 113272.12 62.93 39.24

MB (μg/m3) -37.22 -3.58 0.04 -0.28 0.23 6.90 -1.93 -47.55

MAGE (μg/m3) 41.48 3.58 10.40 3.39 0.98 6.90 1.98 53.27

RMSE (μg/m3) 51.84 4.16 14.75 5.69 1.33 7.80 2.30 65.75

Obs Max (μg/m3) 174.11 17.40 76.59 17.16 4.06 0.01 7.80 207.54

Pred Max (μg/m3) 162.80 8.26 95.29 27.58 3.41 17.29 5.13 200.98

Mean_Obs 92.14 4.81 20.59 5.99 0.89 0.00 3.08 138.50

Mean_Pred 54.92 1.23 20.63 5.71 1.12 6.90 1.15 90.94

Std_Dev_Obs 34.96 3.53 18.04 3.86 0.76 0.00 1.60 30.80

Std_Dev_Pre 40.81 2.25 20.11 7.30 0.89 3.73 1.14 51.92

Variance 2687.22 17.32 217.69 32.39 1.76 60.83 5.31 4323.43

R2 0.29 0.65 0.48 0.37 0.09 0.04 0.37 0.22

BF 0.58 0.17 1.19 0.90 3.69 49.29 0.43 0.65

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 322

January 18, 2008
 C-33 

Table C-5r. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shenandoah Class I 

area.

SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -76.03 12.44 -21.00 -77.27 13.36 175.00 -119.18 -69.71

MFE (%) 84.20 97.89 50.51 78.63 50.24 175.00 119.18 77.03

Ap -0.46 -0.13 -0.84 -0.60 -0.75 -999.00 -0.94 -0.36

NMB (%) -49.46 51.63 -43.57 -57.04 -16.01 -999.00 -80.94 -44.97

NME (%) 56.28 129.69 59.35 58.47 50.78 -999.00 80.94 51.51

MNB (%) -45.12 149.15 -2.40 -52.83 59.10 -999.00 -72.31 -41.96

MNE (%) 55.84 198.87 48.56 54.30 86.79 -999.00 72.31 50.86

MB (μg/m3) -86.47 3.04 -8.89 -3.12 -0.18 8.24 -2.65 -99.38

MAGE (μg/m3) 98.39 7.64 12.11 3.20 0.57 8.24 2.65 113.84

RMSE (μg/m3) 117.52 10.84 31.39 4.09 1.17 9.41 3.88 135.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 354.08 32.37 150.90 15.51 6.59 0.00 15.30 375.09

Pred Max (μg/m3) 192.70 28.15 24.29 6.22 1.63 16.00 0.91 240.70

Mean_Obs 174.83 5.89 20.40 5.48 1.12 0.00 3.27 221.00

Mean_Pred 88.37 8.93 11.51 2.35 0.94 8.24 0.62 121.62

Std_Dev_Obs 74.90 6.47 29.56 2.49 1.30 0.00 2.91 66.32

Std_Dev_Pre 63.95 8.06 6.22 1.10 0.33 4.63 0.18 79.02

Variance 13811.26 117.59460 985.14 16.77 1.37 88.53 15.09 18260.59

R2 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 -999.00 0.01 0.03

BF 0.55 2.49 0.98 0.47 1.59 0.00 0.28 0.58

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5s. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shining Rock Class I 

area.

SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -64.10 -187.59 -31.54 -28.66 -29.64 199.31 -132.94 -57.06

MFE (%) 68.47 187.59 39.71 36.19 41.93 199.31 132.94 59.79

Ap -0.55 -0.85 0.57 0.14 -0.39 151.98 -0.86 -0.52

NMB (%) -44.23 -96.56 -20.83 -23.28 -29.58 50992.11 -83.16 -41.26

NME (%) 48.75 96.56 33.83 31.40 38.94 50992.11 83.16 44.09

MNB (%) -42.37 -96.50 -21.93 -21.05 -19.64 12340.48 -78.61 -39.81

MNE (%) 47.60 96.50 33.53 29.33 33.81 12340.48 78.61 42.98

MB (μg/m3) -71.73 -3.00 -3.26 -0.57 -0.31 5.56 -1.51 -80.99

MAGE (μg/m3) 79.06 3.00 5.30 0.77 0.41 5.56 1.51 86.54

RMSE (μg/m3) 106.33 3.22 6.88 0.95 0.57 5.84 1.73 114.15

Obs Max (μg/m3) 475.66 6.49 23.94 3.86 2.55 0.06 3.68 518.88

Pred Max (μg/m3) 214.07 0.96 37.53 4.41 1.56 8.90 0.50 250.07

Mean_Obs 162.18 3.11 15.66 2.45 1.05 0.01 1.82 196.28

Mean_Pred 90.45 0.11 12.40 1.88 0.74 5.57 0.31 115.28

Std_Dev_Obs 77.95 1.22 4.55 0.73 0.51 0.02 0.88 80.56

Std_Dev_Pre 56.81 0.21 7.07 0.80 0.28 1.82 0.08 61.81

Variance 11306.41 10.38869 47.33 0.90 0.33 34.06 2.98 13029.82

R2 0.11 0.03 0.26 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.21 0.13

BF 0.58 0.03 0.78 0.79 0.80 24.88 0.21 0.60

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 323

January 18, 2008
 C-34 

Table C-5t. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -70.46 -117.95 -10.05 -80.92 22.60 199.72 -129.72 -48.58

MFE (%) 80.31 143.41 59.66 83.49 59.52 199.72 129.72 60.40

Ap -0.26 -0.05 0.81 -0.45 0.37 919.30 -0.72 -0.12

NMB (%) -39.82 -33.47 14.40 -55.11 43.23 738981.75 -79.24 -28.95

NME (%) 49.60 93.13 62.85 57.44 76.60 738981.75 79.24 41.90

MNB (%) -41.83 -47.12 12.97 -54.30 71.45 6291.68 -77.36 -29.54

MNE (%) 53.89 95.39 63.20 57.30 99.81 6291.68 77.36 44.20

MB (μg/m3) -51.76 -3.37 3.35 -3.26 0.43 11.39 -2.45 -53.35

MAGE (μg/m3) 64.47 9.37 14.63 3.40 0.76 11.39 2.45 77.22

RMSE (μg/m3) 76.05 17.21 18.18 3.72 0.99 13.95 2.68 90.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 279.55 63.69 41.03 11.07 2.28 0.03 5.08 325.68

Pred Max (μg/m3) 208.05 60.69 74.21 6.10 3.12 31.20 1.41 286.87

Mean_Obs 129.97 10.07 23.28 5.92 0.99 0.00 3.09 184.32

Mean_Pred 78.21 6.70 26.63 2.66 1.42 11.39 0.64 130.96

Std_Dev_Obs 65.73 16.76 8.98 1.85 0.45 0.01 1.08 62.72

Std_Dev_Pre 64.39 15.57 20.92 1.40 0.82 8.24 0.33 87.85

Variance 5783.50 296.22 330.57 13.84 0.98 194.58 7.16 8218.50

R2 0.38 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.30

BF 0.58 0.53 1.13 0.46 1.71 2.91 0.23 0.70

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5u. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Swanquarter Class I 

area.

SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.96 -122.20 -58.99 -76.45 31.37 187.73 -131.45 -49.02

MFE (%) 81.41 156.01 58.99 79.31 74.32 194.88 131.45 62.35

Ap 0.03 0.45 -0.79 0.21 1.01 6.38 -0.74 0.00

NMB (%) -24.66 3.84 -52.47 -50.51 50.46 7507.01 -80.76 -31.38

NME (%) 57.70 93.70 52.47 55.29 100.20 7623.59 80.76 46.10

MNB (%) -28.04 -19.11 -41.81 -51.65 183.63 -58.29 -77.44 -29.30

MNE (%) 59.96 125.41 41.81 55.08 214.89 58.29 77.44 45.20

MB (μg/m3) -20.67 0.29 -12.17 -2.42 0.31 3.93 -2.95 -42.55

MAGE (μg/m3) 48.38 6.98 12.17 2.65 0.62 3.99 2.95 62.51

RMSE (μg/m3) 58.52 10.49 24.00 2.90 0.87 4.51 3.25 76.28

Obs Max (μg/m3) 209.85 45.16 128.63 7.73 1.34 1.20 7.26 243.51

Pred Max (μg/m3) 216.04 65.32 26.40 9.32 2.68 8.88 1.89 244.55

Mean_Obs 83.84 7.44 23.19 4.79 0.62 0.05 3.65 135.60

Mean_Pred 63.17 7.73 11.02 2.37 0.93 3.98 0.70 93.05

Std_Dev_Obs 43.76 9.31 24.50 1.68 0.34 0.25 1.34 39.17

Std_Dev_Pre 60.46 16.51 6.37 1.92 0.62 2.16 0.41 60.38

Variance 3425.07 110.06 576.21 8.44 0.75 20.33 10.56 5818.45

R2 0.21 0.63 0.38 0.35 0.19 0.12 0.00 0.04

BF 0.72 0.81 0.58 0.48 2.84 0.02 0.23 0.71

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 324

January 18, 2008
 C-35 

Table C-5v. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Upper Buffalo Class I 

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.22 -94.84 -21.14 -69.02 52.35 191.67 -150.24 -45.58

MFE (%) 70.32 123.99 27.94 69.02 70.13 191.67 150.24 52.57

Ap -0.40 -0.20 -0.56 -0.30 0.18 -999.00 -0.92 -0.34

NMB (%) -39.96 -21.91 -20.56 -50.26 75.18 -999.00 -89.44 -32.00

NME (%) 47.24 99.30 27.44 50.26 110.32 -999.00 89.44 39.01

MNB (%) -39.30 -4.26 -15.33 -48.75 150.41 -999.00 -84.89 -29.86

MNE (%) 47.64 119.52 22.99 48.75 162.88 -999.00 84.89 37.75

MB (μg/m3) -40.13 -2.13 -3.40 -2.13 0.87 15.10 -7.97 -48.64

MAGE (μg/m3) 47.45 9.67 4.53 2.13 1.27 15.10 7.97 59.30

RMSE (μg/m3) 71.44 20.14 8.32 2.49 1.81 17.18 9.76 84.24

Obs Max (μg/m3) 273.55 98.02 52.31 7.21 5.34 0.00 20.96 311.47

Pred Max (μg/m3) 163.12 78.69 23.01 5.03 6.32 29.04 1.68 204.34

Mean_Obs 100.43 9.74 16.53 4.24 1.15 0.00 8.91 152.01

Mean_Pred 60.30 7.61 13.13 2.11 2.02 15.10 0.94 103.37

Std_Dev_Obs 57.29 21.23 9.64 1.24 0.96 0.00 5.76 53.33

Std_Dev_Pre 47.58 18.03 5.84 0.95 1.15 8.38 0.31 57.74

Variance 5103.16 405.65 69.21 6.20 3.27 295.24 95.35 7097.14

R2 0.12 0.22 0.35 0.09 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.04

BF 0.61 0.96 0.85 0.51 2.50 0.00 0.15 0.70

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 325

January 18, 2008
 C-36 

C.2.3 Class I Area Model Performance Evaluation 

Below we summarize the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance at 

each of the Class I area within and nearby the VISTAS region for the best and worst 20% days 

and then for all days during 2002. 

C.2.3.1 Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama 

C.2.3.1.1 SIPS Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-3a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and 

EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 326

January 18, 2008
 C-37 

Figure C-3b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) 

and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 327

January 18, 2008
 C-38 

Figure C-4. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, 

Alabama and the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 328

January 18, 2008
 C-39 

2.3.1.2 SIPS Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-5a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) 

and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 329

January 18, 2008
 C-40 

Figure C-5b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 330

January 18, 2008
 C-41 

Figure C-6. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, 

Alabama and the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 331

January 18, 2008
 C-42 

2.3.1.3 SIPS for All Days 

Figure C-7. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base 

G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 332

January 18, 2008
 C-43 

Figure C-7. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 333

January 18, 2008
 C-44 

2.3.2 Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida 

2.3.2.1 CHAS Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-8a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 334

January 18, 2008
 C-45 

Figure C-8b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 335

January 18, 2008
 C-46 

Figure C-9. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 336

January 18, 2008
 C-47 

2.3.2.2 CHAS Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-10a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 337

January 18, 2008
 C-48 

Figure C-10b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 338

January 18, 2008
 C-49 

Figure C-11. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 339

January 18, 2008
 C-50 

2.3.2.3 CHAS for All Days 

Figure C-12. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 340

January 18, 2008
 C-51 

Figure C-12. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), 

Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 341

January 18, 2008
 C-52 

2.3.3 Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida 

2.3.3.1 EVER Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-13a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 342

January 18, 2008
 C-53 

Figure C-13b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 343

January 18, 2008
 C-54 

Figure C-14. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 344

January 18, 2008
 C-55 

2.3.3.2 EVER Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-15a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 345

January 18, 2008
 C-56 

Figure C-15b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 346

January 18, 2008
 C-57 

Figure C-16. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 347

January 18, 2008
 C-58 

2.3.3.3 EVER for All Days 

Figure C-17. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 348

January 18, 2008
 C-59 

Figure C-17. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 349

January 18, 2008
 C-60 

2.3.4 St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida 

2.3.4.1 SAMA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-18a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 350

January 18, 2008
 C-61 

Figure C-18b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 351

January 18, 2008
 C-62 

Figure C-19. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 352

January 18, 2008
 C-63 

2.3.4.2 SAMA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-20a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 353

January 18, 2008
 C-64 

Figure C-20b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 354

January 18, 2008
 C-65 

Figure C-21. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 355

January 18, 2008
 C-66 

2.3.4.3 SAMA for All Days 

Figure C-22. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 356

January 18, 2008
 C-67 

Figure C-22. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 357

January 18, 2008
 C-68 

2.3.5 Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia 

2.3.5.1 COHU Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-23a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 358

January 18, 2008
 C-69 

Figure C-23b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 359

January 18, 2008
 C-70 

Figure C-24. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 360

January 18, 2008
 C-71 

2.3.5.2 COHU Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-25a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 361

January 18, 2008
 C-72 

Figure C-25b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 362

January 18, 2008
 C-73 

Figure C-26. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 363

January 18, 2008
 C-74 

2.3.5.3 COHU for All Days 

Figure C-27. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 364

January 18, 2008
 C-75 

Figure C-27. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 365

January 18, 2008
 C-76 

2.3.6 Okefenokee Wildlife Refuge (OKEF), Georgia 

2.3.6.1 OKEF Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-28a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 366

January 18, 2008
 C-77 

Figure C-28b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 367

January 18, 2008
 C-78 

Figure C-29. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 368

January 18, 2008
 C-79 

2.3.6.2 OKEF Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-30a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 369

January 18, 2008
 C-80 

Figure C-30b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 370

January 18, 2008
 C-81 

Figure C-31. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 371

January 18, 2008
 C-82 

2.3.6.3 OKEF for All Days 

Figure C-32. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), 

Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 372

January 18, 2008
 C-83 

Figure C-32. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 373

January 18, 2008
 C-84 

2.3.7 Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky 

2.3.7.1 MACA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-33a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 374

January 18, 2008
 C-85 

Figure C-33b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 375

January 18, 2008
 C-86 

Figure C-34. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 376

January 18, 2008
 C-87 

2.3.7.2 MACA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-35a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 377

January 18, 2008
 C-88 

Figure C-35b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 378

January 18, 2008
 C-89 

Figure C-36. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 379

January 18, 2008
 C-90 

2.3.7.3 MACA for All Days 

Figure C-37. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 380

January 18, 2008
 C-91 

Figure C-37. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), 

Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 381

January 18, 2008
 C-92 

2.3.8 Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina 

2.3.8.1 LIGO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-38a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 382

January 18, 2008
 C-93 

Figure C-38b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 383

January 18, 2008
 C-94 

Figure C-39. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 384

January 18, 2008
 C-95 

2.3.8.2 LIGO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-40a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 385

January 18, 2008
 C-96 

Figure C-40b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 386

January 18, 2008
 C-97 

Figure C-41. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 387

January 18, 2008
 C-98 

2.3.8.3 LIGO for All Days 

Figure C-42. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 388

January 18, 2008
 C-99 

Figure C-42. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 389

January 18, 2008
 C-100 

2.3.9 Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina 

2.3.9.1 SHRO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-43a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 390

January 18, 2008
 C-101 

Figure C-43b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 391

January 18, 2008
 C-102 

Figure C-44. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 392

January 18, 2008
 C-103 

2.3.9.2 SHRO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-45a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 393

January 18, 2008
 C-104 

Figure C-45b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 394

January 18, 2008
 C-105 

Figure C-46. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 395

January 18, 2008
 C-106 

2.3.9.3 SHRO for All Days 

Figure C-47. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 396

January 18, 2008
 C-107 

Figure C-47. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 397

January 18, 2008
 C-108 

2.3.10 Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina 

2.3.10.1 SWAN Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-48a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 398

January 18, 2008
 C-109 

Figure C-48b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 399

January 18, 2008
 C-110 

Figure C-49. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 400

January 18, 2008
 C-111 

2.3.10.2 SWAN Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-50a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 401

January 18, 2008
 C-112 

Figure C-50b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 402

January 18, 2008
 C-113 

Figure C-51. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 403

January 18, 2008
 C-114 

2.3.10.3 SWAN for All Days 

Figure C-52. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 404

January 18, 2008
 C-115 

Figure C-52. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 405

January 18, 2008
 C-116 

2.3.11 Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina 

2.3.11.1 ROMA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-53a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 406

January 18, 2008
 C-117 

Figure C-53b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 407

January 18, 2008
 C-118 

Figure C-54. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 408

January 18, 2008
 C-119 

2.3.11.2 ROMA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-55a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 409

January 18, 2008
 C-120 

Figure C-55b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 410

January 18, 2008
 C-121 

Figure C-56. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 411

January 18, 2008
 C-122 

2.3.11.3 ROMA for All Days 

Figure C-57. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 412

January 18, 2008
 C-123 

Figure C-57. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), 

South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 413

January 18, 2008
 C-124 

2.3.12 Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina 

2.3.12.1 GRSM Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-58a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top 

left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 414

January 18, 2008
 C-125 

Figure C-58b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top 

left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 415

January 18, 2008
 C-126 

Figure C-59. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 416

January 18, 2008
 C-127 

2.3.12.2 GRSM Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-60a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top 

left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 417

January 18, 2008
 C-128 

Figure C-60b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top 

left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 418

January 18, 2008
 C-129 

Figure C-61. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 419

January 18, 2008
 C-130 

2.3.12.3 GRSM for All Days 

Figure C-62. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), 

Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 420

January 18, 2008
 C-131 

Figure C-62. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains 

(GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 421

January 18, 2008
 C-132 

2.3.13 James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia 

2.3.13.1 JARI Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-63a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 422

January 18, 2008
 C-133 

Figure C-63b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 423

January 18, 2008
 C-134 

Figure C-64. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 424

January 18, 2008
 C-135 

2.3.13.2 JARI Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-65a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 425

January 18, 2008
 C-136 

Figure C-65b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 426

January 18, 2008
 C-137 

Figure C-66. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 427

January 18, 2008
 C-138 

2.3.13.3 JARI for All Days 

Figure C-67. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 428

January 18, 2008
 C-139 

Figure C-67. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 429

January 18, 2008
 C-140 

2.3.14 Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia 

2.3.14.1 SHEN Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-68a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 430

January 18, 2008
 C-141 

Figure C-68b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 431

January 18, 2008
 C-142 

Figure C-69. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 432

January 18, 2008
 C-143 

2.3.14.2 SHEN Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-70a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 433

January 18, 2008
 C-144 

Figure C-70b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 434

January 18, 2008
 C-145 

Figure C-71. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 435

January 18, 2008
 C-146 

2.3.14.3 SHEN for All Days 

Figure C-72. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 436

January 18, 2008
 C-147 

Figure C-72. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), 

Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 437

January 18, 2008
 C-148 

2.3.15 Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia 

2.3.15.1 DOSO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-73a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 438

January 18, 2008
 C-149 

Figure C-73b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 439

January 18, 2008
 C-150 

Figure C-74. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 440

January 18, 2008
 C-151 

2.3.15.2 DOSO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-75a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 441

January 18, 2008
 C-152 

Figure C-75b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 442

January 18, 2008
 C-153 

Figure C-76. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 443

January 18, 2008
 C-154 

2.3.15.3 DOSO for All Days 

Figure C-77. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 444

January 18, 2008
 C-155 

Figure C-77. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West 

Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 445

January 18, 2008
 C-156 

2.3.16 Breton Island Wildlife Refuge (BRET), Louisiana 

2.3.16.1 BRET Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-78a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 446

January 18, 2008
 C-157 

Figure C-78b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 447

January 18, 2008
 C-158 

Figure C-79. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 448

January 18, 2008
 C-159 

2.3.16.2 BRET Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-80a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 449

January 18, 2008
 C-160 

Figure C-80b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 

Pre-Hearing Draft

Regional Haze SIP for TN Class I Areas

Appendix M.1 - 450

January 18, 2008