### C-11 C.2 Model Performance Statistics

To quantify model performance, several statistical measures we re calculated and evaluated for
all the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain and individually for each
IMPROVE monitor associated with a VISTAS or nearby Class I areas. The statistical measures
selected were based on the recommendations outlined in secti on 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s
Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Anal yses for Demonstrati ng Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (EPA, 2007a).

In 2004, VISTAS established model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass (Table C-2) based on previous mode l performance for ozone and fine particles. EPA modeling guidance for fine particulate matter at the time noted that PM models might not
be able to achieve the same level of performance as ozone models. VISTAS’ evaluation considered several statistical perf ormance measures and displays.

Table C-2. Model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass.

Fractional Bias Fractional Error Comment

< 15% < 35% Goal for PM model performance based on ozone model performance, considered excellent performance

< 30% < 50% Goal for PM model performance, considered good performance

< 60% < 75% Criteria for PM model performance, considered average performance. Exceeding this level of performance indicates fundamental concerns with the modeling system and triggers diagnostic evaluation.



### The statistical measures were calculated for all of the component species of particulate matter responsible for light extinction, and for total light extinction. For convenience, these statistical measures or metrics, along with a variety of additional statistical measures, are summarized in
Table C-3.

### C-12 Table C-3. Statistical metric calculations.

Statistical Measure Shorthand Notation Mathematical Expression Notes

Accuracy of Paired Peak A p

peak peak 

### O OP

−

Coefficient of Determination R 2 

# ( ) 

# ( )

∑ ∑ ∑

= = =



### − − ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

−−

N

i N

i i i N

i i i



### OOPP OOPP

1 1 2 2 2

1


### )()( P i = prediction at time and location i; O i = observation at time and location i;



### P = arithmetic average of P i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N;


### O = arithmetic average of O i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N;
Normalized Mean Error NME



# ∑ ∑

= = 

### −

N

i i N

i ii



### O OP

1 1 Reported as %

Root Mean Square Error RMSE 

# ( ) 2 1

1 2 

### 1 ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− 

# ∑

= N

i ii 

### OP N Reported as %

Mean Fractional Error MFE 

# ∑

= 

### + − N

i ii ii 

### OP OP

N 1 

### 2 Reported as %

Mean Absolute Gross Error MAGE 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i ii 

### OP N 1 

### 1

Mean Normalized Gross Error MNGE 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i ii 

### O OP

N 1 

### 1 Reported as %

Mean Biased MB 

# ( ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i ii 

### OP N 1 

### 1 Reported as concentration

Mean Normalized Bias MNB 

# ( 

# ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i ii 

### O OP

N 1 

### 1 Reported as %

Mean Fractionalized Bias (Fractional Bias) MFB 

# ∑

= 

### ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ − N

i ii ii 

### OP OP

N 1 

### 2 Reported as %

Normalized Mean Bias NMB 

# ( )



# ∑ ∑

= = 

### −

N

i i N

i ii



### O OP

1 1 Reported as %

Bias Factor BF 

# ∑

= 

### ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ N

i i i 

### O P

N 1 

### 1 Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF)

### C-13 C.2.1 Statistical Tables



### The statistical data is calculated collectivel y for all of the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain, as well as individually for each of the IMPROVE monitors associated with a VISTAS Class I area along with the IMPROVE monitors associated with nearby Class I areas. These statistics have been calculated sepa rately for the 20% Best days (Section C.2.1.1) and 20% Worst days (Section C.2.1.2).

C.2.1.1 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Best Days



### Table C-4 displays the model perf ormance statistical measures for the Best 20 percent visibility days during 2002. Table C-4a c ontains statistical performance metrics for the Best 20 percent days across all IMPROVE monitors in the VISTAS 12 km domain, whereas the remainder of the
tables contain statistics for each individual IM PROVE monitor associated with a Class I area within and near the VISTAS region.

C.2.1.2 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Worst Days



### Statistical performance measures for the Wors t 20 percent days in 2002 and the CMAQ Base G2
12 km base case are shown in Table C-5.

Table C-4a. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 km VISTAS grid.

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -115.20 -110.06 -25.88 -27.46 78.49 148.33 -81.50 -81.14 MFE (%) 122.49 132.75 57.01 55.29 114.38 184.31 104.25 88.50

A p 2.48 1.09 2.16 1.54 1.73 4.23 -0.18 1.85 NMB (%) -61.28 -39.82 -3.89 - 12.78 213.72 551.54 -62.01 -47.74 NME (%) 75.88 86.49 55.78 52.03 266.13 711.04 70.48 59.48 MNB (%) -61.79 -40.68 0.75 8. 92 682.14 2051.72 -38.65 -48.42 MNE (%) 77.67 91.64 58.34 68. 09 704.19 2147.79 78.76 60.38 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.52 -1.77 -0.18 -0.25 0.63 2.88 -1.34 -19.42 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.79 3.84 2.64 1.02 0.78 3.71 1.52 24.20 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.76 6.23 5.04 1.97 1.18 7.45 2.07 27.92 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.57 30.49 21.39 9.96 2.95 15.38 9.86 65.36 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 144.46 63.78 67.55 25.33 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22 Mean_Obs 15.54 4.44 4.74 1.95 0.29 0.52 2.15 40.69 Mean_Pred 6.02 2.68 4.55 1.70 0.92 3.40 0.82 21.27 Std_Dev_Obs 7.06 3.93 2. 50 1.09 0.32 1.78 1.68 10.12 Std_Dev_Pre 10.74 6.01 5. 33 1.91 0.97 6.47 0.92 20.63
Variance 217.83 38.82 25.35 3.88 1.40 55.56 4.29 779.65

R 2 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.09
BF 0.38 0.59 1.01 1.08 7.82 4.57 0.60 0.52
N 490 490 490 490 490 490 490 490

### C-14 Table C-4b. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Breton Island Class I

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -152.90 -179.64 -82.67 -69.08 14.14 27.20 -80.87 -139.99 MFE (%) 152.90 181.21 83.72 69.19 126.36 166.60 91.94 139.99

A p -0.74 -0.69 -0.54 -0.46 -0.25 -0.47 -0.46 -0.66 NMB (%) -86.23 -94.40 -54.53 - 50.86 -14.55 -47.92 -56.39 -81.07 NME (%) 86.23 95.50 55.38 50.96 132.14 111.15 59.69 81.07 MNB (%) -85.67 -90.70 -53.78 - 48.24 454.91 -71.19 -41.48 -81.47 MNE (%) 85.67 92.44 54.89 48.36 519.05 76.78 71.91 81.47 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -15.48 -2.76 -1.40 -0.81 -0.05 -0.39 -1.98 -32.99 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.48 2.80 1.43 0.82 0.43 0.90 2.10 32.99 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 16.76 3.21 1.79 1.04 0.57 1.25 2.40 33.48 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 28.83 7.28 6.17 2.75 1.61 3.81 7.45 48.75 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.43 2.23 2.86 1.48 1.21 2.03 4.00 16.64 Mean_Obs 17.95 2.93 2.57 1.60 0.33 0.81 3.51 40.69 Mean_Pred 2.47 0.16 1.17 0.79 0.28 0.42 1.53 7.70 Std_Dev_Obs 7.00 1.50 1. 40 0.76 0.41 1.00 1.66 6.09 Std_Dev_Pre 2.24 0.49 0. 90 0.46 0.31 0.51 1.06 4.97
Variance 280.94 10.28 3.21 1.08 0.32 1.57 5.76 1120.72

R 2 0.12 0.04 0.34 0.25 0.08 0.05 0.31 0.22
BF 0.14 0.09 0.46 0.52 5.55 0.15 0.59 0.19
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4c. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Brigantine Class I

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -118.49 -85.82 1.36 36.59 68.09 88.47 -126.19 -75.43 MFE (%) 126.68 116.82 57.68 75.89 107.44 176.33 126.19 94.46

A p 0.14 0.09 7.20 4.77 2.48 -0.61 -0.70 1.14 NMB (%) -66.46 -29.38 124.33 131. 07 204.17 -11.47 -76.73 -39.27 NME (%) 75.91 76.29 157.87 159.04 240.37 164.42 76.73 67.56 MNB (%) -65.18 -24.93 99.46 309. 60 278.12 3530.32 -75.55 -35.94 MNE (%) 75.82 86.26 138.10 336. 38 303.32 3647.08 75.55 69.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -10.86 -1.07 5.36 2.69 0.48 -0.23 -3.00 -17.47 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.41 2.77 6.81 3.26 0.56 3.30 3.00 30.05 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.51 3.51 16.44 6.75 0.74 4.55 3.49 34.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 27.59 11.88 8.23 4.39 0.62 12.00 8.61 52.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 31.45 12.90 67.55 25.33 2.17 4.65 2.62 113.43 Mean_Obs 16.35 3.63 4.31 2.05 0.23 2.00 3.90 44.48 Mean_Pred 5.48 2.56 9.67 4.74 0.71 1.77 0.91 27.01 Std_Dev_Obs 5.74 2.26 1. 88 1.17 0.13 3.83 1.82 6.00 Std_Dev_Pre 7.08 3.74 16. 57 6.23 0.54 1.28 0.76 28.02
Variance 182.58 12.31 270.43 45.58 0.55 20.74 12.15 1165.02

R 2 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.04 0.06
BF 0.35 0.75 1.99 3.91 3.78 14.85 0.24 0.64

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-15 Table C-4d. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Caney Creek Class I

area. CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -98.27 -48.24 12.50 - 32.03 121.94 192.93 -80.27 -54.72 MFE (%) 115.70 107.35 51.24 50.47 127.27 192.93 89.10 68.41

A p 0.74 0.60 -0.05 -0.05 2.68 10.90 -0.73 0.75 NMB (%) -49.86 -8.82 17.09 - 26.56 422.09 6340.14 -64.97 -32.38 NME (%) 75.74 92.86 46.05 37. 07 428.84 6340.14 67.42 50.84 MNB (%) -48.65 38.51 36.27 -15. 41 2407.02 24672.54 -48.65 -32.00 MNE (%) 71.78 132.02 63.94 43. 59 2411.82 24672.54 60.37 49.96 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -4.15 -0.52 0.77 -0.45 1.23 3.55 -1.32 -10.93 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 6.30 5.44 2.07 0.63 1.25 3.55 1.37 17.16 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.49 7.61 2.34 0.73 1.45 4.64 1.92 19.73 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.58 18.62 9.59 2.61 0.76 1.20 5.41 42.26 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 27.18 29.87 9.11 2.48 2.80 14.24 1.45 73.85 Mean_Obs 8.32 5.86 4.49 1.70 0.29 0.06 2.04 33.75 Mean_Pred 4.17 5.34 5.25 1.25 1.52 3.61 0.71 22.82 Std_Dev_Obs 3.75 5.22 2. 15 0.67 0.20 0.25 1.41 7.14 Std_Dev_Pre 6.91 7.23 2. 63 0.61 0.74 3.03 0.35 17.54
Variance 56.13 57.90 5.47 0.53 2.09 21.58 3.69 389.25

R 2 0.17 0.06 0.32 0.34 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09
BF 0.51 1.39 1.36 0.85 25.07 45.04 0.51 0.68

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-4e. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Chassahowitzka Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -97.65 -185.48 -62.20 -34.33 75.31 179.65 -77.10 -71.12 MFE (%) 117.54 185.48 67.73 48.95 85.36 190.74 79.50 77.64

A p 1.16 -0.84 -0.23 0.11 0.30 1.00 -0.54 0.48 NMB (%) -49.52 -95.94 -46.59 - 25.06 104.88 1176.77 -58.67 -45.69 NME (%) 77.32 95.94 51.53 41. 99 124.45 1297.43 59.97 53.66 MNB (%) -46.09 -95.88 -41.14 -19.10 338.45 472.23 -51.69 -46.07 MNE (%) 79.70 95.88 47.39 43.56 346.64 522.75 54.46 53.71 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.50 -4.25 -2.65 -0.59 0.36 6.75 -2.10 -20.64 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.27 4.25 2.94 1.00 0.43 7.45 2.15 24.23 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.07 4.48 3.50 1.22 0.53 8.82 2.61 26.26 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.80 8.90 8.38 3.78 1.14 10.05 7.40 52.76 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 53.53 1.41 6.45 4.19 1.48 20.13 3.39 77.91 Mean_Obs 17.16 4.43 5.70 2.37 0.34 0.57 3.58 45.17 Mean_Pred 8.66 0.18 3.04 1.78 0.70 7.33 1.48 24.53 Std_Dev_Obs 5.32 1.45 1. 58 0.59 0.29 2.15 1.49 6.38 Std_Dev_Pre 12.45 0.31 1. 36 0.85 0.26 4.94 0.54 17.53
Variance 227.25 20.04 12.27 1.48 0.29 77.76 6.81 689.51

R 2 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.10
BF 0.54 0.04 0.59 0.81 4.38 0.78 0.48 0.54

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-16 Table C-4f. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -87.92 -80.72 -5.85 - 24.92 92.95 198.40 -43.63 -64.47 MFE (%) 106.08 104.25 41.26 44.71 108.35 198.40 89.95 70.27

A p 0.57 -0.18 0.54 0.03 1.38 23.19 -0.88 -0.01 NMB (%) -43.70 -38.79 8.59 - 16.07 189.67 16676.44 -71.13 -41.05 NME (%) 69.09 67.47 40.33 33. 25 204.65 16676.44 82.18 47.02 MNB (%) -45.05 -35.48 8.54 - 12.98 451.68 10913.35 -9.19 -41.72 MNE (%) 71.18 67.60 45.10 38. 67 462.35 10913.35 84.08 48.37 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -7.46 -1.79 0.39 -0.30 0.51 2.40 -0.91 -16.67 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.80 3.12 1.82 0.61 0.55 2.40 1.05 19.10 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.95 4.15 2.32 0.70 0.73 2.97 2.24 21.31 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.33 14.54 6.69 3.25 0.84 0.28 8.34 51.42 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 38.12 11.93 10.33 3.34 1.99 6.75 0.99 50.69 Mean_Obs 17.08 4.62 4.52 1.84 0.27 0.01 1.27 40.62 Mean_Pred 9.62 2.83 4.91 1.55 0.78 2.41 0.37 23.94 Std_Dev_Obs 4.94 3.06 1. 37 0.73 0.22 0.06 2.05 6.33 Std_Dev_Pre 10.77 3.50 2. 79 0.84 0.51 1.80 0.23 14.43
Variance 167.74 17.20 5.39 0.49 0.53 8.81 5.01 453.92

R 2 0.04 0.10 0.30 0.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12
BF 0.55 0.65 1.09 0.87 5.52 11.01 0.86 0.58
N 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20



### Table C-4g. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Dolly Sods Class I

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -107.37 -62.64 -78.22 -73.22 104.58 200.00 -84.35 -97.79 MFE (%) 109.37 98.95 78.34 76.44 110.05 200.00 127.36 97.79

A p -0.04 0.45 -0.52 -0.47 2.47 -999.00 -0.79 -0.21 NMB (%) -62.79 -24.54 -57.40 - 49.56 317.65 -999.00 -79.16 -61.85 NME (%) 65.70 64.67 57.44 51. 87 321.71 -999.00 84.37 61.85 MNB (%) -64.90 -18.19 -52.99 - 48.25 926.54 -999.00 20.22 -63.26 MNE (%) 67.01 69.59 53.11 52. 13 931.32 -999.00 143.07 63.26 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.23 -0.74 -2.55 -0.92 0.45 0.82 -0.56 -20.58 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.61 1.96 2.55 0.96 0.46 0.82 0.60 20.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.90 2.68 3.16 1.10 0.59 1.02 0.80 21.54 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 23.24 9.02 9.02 3.44 0.43 0.00 1.93 43.68 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 22.29 13.11 4.36 1.82 1.49 2.76 0.41 34.63 Mean_Obs 13.11 3.03 4.43 1.85 0.14 0.00 0.71 33.27 Mean_Pred 4.88 2.29 1.89 0.93 0.59 0.82 0.15 12.69 Std_Dev_Obs 5.34 2.39 2. 10 0.76 0.11 0.00 0.61 7.00 Std_Dev_Pre 5.28 3.02 1. 13 0.52 0.40 0.63 0.10 7.57
Variance 98.09 7.20 9.97 1.20 0.34 1.05 0.64 464.10

R 2 0.19 0.30 0.18 0.35 0.05 -999.00 0.11 0.36
BF 0.35 0.82 0.47 0.52 10.27 0.00 1.20 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

### C-17 Table C-4h. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -165.78 -199.82 -8.55 - 6.99 -58.20 -10.33 -119.13 -131.93 MFE (%) 165.78 199.82 43.15 52.61 105.18 127.64 119.13 131.93

A p -0.61 -1.00 -0.18 -0.17 -0.85 -0.67 -0.64 -0.55 NMB (%) -88.57 -99.95 -5.12 -12. 84 -69.39 -58.59 -76.84 -78.61 NME (%) 88.57 99.95 40.75 47.33 84.41 98.24 76.84 78.61 MNB (%) -89.70 -99.95 3.63 -2 .76 -1.43 -56.94 -72.48 -78.57 MNE (%) 89.70 99.95 40.75 41.91 96.80 57.89 72.48 78.57 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.06 -2.04 -0.15 -0.12 -0.27 -0.74 -1.80 -23.62 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.06 2.04 1.21 0.45 0.33 1.24 1.80 23.62 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.36 2.15 1.47 0.64 0.52 1.75 2.03 23.93 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.39 3.74 5.72 2.89 1.84 4.83 3.91 32.94 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.54 0.02 4.71 2.39 0.27 1.57 1.40 14.82 Mean_Obs 9.10 2.04 2.96 0.95 0.39 1.26 2.35 30.05 Mean_Pred 1.04 0.00 2.81 0.83 0.12 0.52 0.54 6.43 Std_Dev_Obs 2.57 0.68 0. 96 0.63 0.43 1.44 0.89 2.39 Std_Dev_Pre 1.26 0.00 1. 05 0.60 0.06 0.39 0.30 3.22
Variance 69.82 4.61 2.16 0.41 0.27 3.07 4.13 572.47

R 2 0.23 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.00
BF 0.10 0.00 1.04 0.93 0.99 0.30 0.28 0.21

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-4i. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Great Smoky Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -94.17 -85.46 4.96 -7 .50 138.59 178.02 -92.16 -63.98 MFE (%) 106.13 121.52 35.87 46.24 146.55 192.47 100.92 73.86

A p 1.26 0.42 0.48 0.80 5.01 1.79 -0.80 1.12 NMB (%) -46.57 -28.06 17.14 5.51 631.35 909.08 -69.24 -38.72 NME (%) 73.85 89.51 44.67 47. 10 648.27 1026.45 72.85 55.67 MNB (%) -43.83 -18.32 18.89 8. 54 1821.12 -1.90 -53.08 -37.82 MNE (%) 82.10 96.66 43.55 48.94 1826.58 88.88 64.36 58.76 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.72 -1.12 0.73 0.11 0.97 2.19 -0.79 -16.09 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.83 3.57 1.91 0.96 1.00 2.48 0.83 23.13 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.59 4.96 2.88 1.22 1.31 3.29 1.09 27.06 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 31.91 10.95 8.95 3.38 0.69 3.59 3.75 52.59 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 72.10 15.57 13.26 6.09 4.17 10.01 0.77 111.51 Mean_Obs 18.72 3.99 4.27 2.03 0.15 0.24 1.14 41.55 Mean_Pred 10.00 2.87 5.00 2.15 1.13 2.43 0.35 25.46 Std_Dev_Obs 8.30 3.09 1. 77 0.72 0.17 0.84 0.78 9.77 Std_Dev_Pre 14.66 4.40 3. 10 1.33 0.89 2.27 0.21 21.63
Variance 309.58 24.64 8.30 1.48 1.70 10.85 1.19 732.11

R 2 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03
BF 0.56 0.82 1.19 1.09 19.21 0.09 0.47 0.62
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-18 Table C-4j. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Hercules Glade Class I area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -132.82 -81.46 -11.53 -30.28 144.10 200.00 -32.67 -47.04 MFE (%) 132.82 103.95 40.05 41.82 144.10 200.00 57.88 60.54

A p -0.63 1.76 0.17 -0.04 8.46 -999.00 -0.35 0.89 NMB (%) -77.98 -20.11 -4.87 -21. 83 720.14 -999.00 -28.19 -28.48 NME (%) 77.98 82.73 35.75 33. 02 720.14 -999.00 48.77 46.61 MNB (%) -78.28 -32.69 0.82 -20. 20 911.74 -999.00 -11.82 -29.64 MNE (%) 78.28 78.59 39.89 33. 88 911.74 -999.00 51.51 47.04 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.24 -1.15 -0.27 -0.53 2.20 8.53 -0.67 -11.19 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.24 4.73 2.01 0.80 2.20 8.53 1.16 18.31 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.68 7.54 2.51 0.94 2.56 10.14 1.47 20.11 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.95 13.33 9.21 3.73 0.57 0.00 5.14 44.20 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 6.62 36.84 10.79 3.57 5.40 22.46 3.33 83.40 Mean_Obs 11.85 5.71 5.61 2.41 0.31 0.00 2.39 39.28 Mean_Pred 2.61 4.56 5.34 1.88 2.50 8.53 1.71 28.09 Std_Dev_Obs 3.36 3.53 1. 88 0.74 0.13 0.00 1.10 3.87 Std_Dev_Pre 1.80 8.16 2. 56 0.86 1.32 5.60 0.81 18.23
Variance 93.67 56.85 6.31 0.88 6.57 102.75 2.15 404.22

R 2 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.27 0.02 -999.00 0.00 0.15
BF 0.22 0.67 1.01 0.80 10.12 0.00 0.88 0.70
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4k. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the James River Face Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -91.09 -83.18 -65.51 -65.84 84.39 199.75 -132.42 -83.60 MFE (%) 100.63 118.95 69.44 67.77 84.97 199.75 132.42 87.18

A p -0.09 0.75 -0.67 -0.72 0.88 330.57 -0.77 0.09 NMB (%) -47.44 -45.84 -49.87 - 54.56 146.02 291595.78 -80.40 -52.48 NME (%) 59.51 92.91 53.49 55. 58 146.61 291595.78 80.40 56.50 MNB (%) -51.16 -4.56 -44.70 - 45.74 216.63 6626.39 -78.95 -52.91 MNE (%) 63.28 112.94 49.69 47. 91 217.19 6626.39 78.95 57.42 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -10.04 -2.26 -3.11 -1.88 0.35 2.00 -1.05 -25.36 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.59 4.59 3.34 1.91 0.35 2.00 1.05 27.30 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.16 5.71 4.56 2.62 0.43 2.45 1.18 29.72 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.57 10.56 21.39 9.96 0.69 0.02 2.90 60.15 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 37.76 18.46 6.97 2.82 1.29 5.24 0.67 65.41 Mean_Obs 21.16 4.94 6.24 3.44 0.24 0.00 1.31 48.33 Mean_Pred 11.12 2.67 3.13 1.56 0.59 2.00 0.26 22.97 Std_Dev_Obs 7.70 2.48 3. 83 1.96 0.15 0.00 0.61 7.18 Std_Dev_Pre 11.63 4.04 1. 82 0.58 0.26 1.45 0.15 16.35
Variance 200.48 32.55 20.77 6.87 0.18 6.01 1.39 883.03

R 2 0.25 0.10 0.21 0.10 0.09 0.02 0.36 0.08
BF 0.49 0.95 0.55 0.54 3.17 2.92 0.21 0.47
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-19 Table C-4l. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Linville Gorge Class I

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -115.63 -95.20 -45.21 -44.22 104.52 181.01 -105.22 -97.19 MFE (%) 116.61 115.72 51.50 50.16 115.41 181.18 119.65 97.19

A p -0.44 -0.72 0.31 -0.09 1.23 2.10 -0.83 -0.42 NMB (%) -69.37 -53.30 -31.24 - 31.42 230.32 1115.81 -77.59 -63.14 NME (%) 69.82 71.17 42.01 38. 50 251.11 1117.78 78.96 63.14 MNB (%) -69.20 -43.30 -30.96 -29.43 510.03 884.70 -45.89 -63.32 MNE (%) 70.23 74.23 38.11 36.49 519.16 885.91 88.23 63.32 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.06 -1.22 -1.42 -0.68 0.42 0.97 -0.72 -21.62 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.12 1.63 1.90 0.83 0.46 0.97 0.74 21.62 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 10.48 2.33 2.46 1.05 0.59 1.28 1.00 22.72 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 25.33 11.62 8.77 4.76 0.70 0.98 3.43 41.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.31 3.29 11.47 4.35 1.56 3.06 0.57 24.48 Mean_Obs 13.05 2.29 4.53 2.16 0.18 0.09 0.93 34.24 Mean_Pred 4.00 1.07 3.12 1.48 0.60 1.05 0.21 12.62 Std_Dev_Obs 5.92 2.24 2. 03 0.95 0.16 0.27 0.80 6.50 Std_Dev_Pre 3.72 1.15 2. 65 1.07 0.42 0.82 0.14 6.37
Variance 109.79 5.41 6.07 1.10 0.35 1.65 1.01 516.35

R 2 0.20 0.19 0.41 0.46 0.02 0.00 0.43 0.14
BF 0.31 0.57 0.69 0.71 6.10 1.41 0.54 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-4m. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mammoth Cave Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -121.24 -61.27 -66.90 -38.39 96.54 200.00 -53.22 -83.33 MFE (%) 121.24 98.70 67.80 46.35 106.03 200.00 106.30 83.33

A p -0.45 0.12 -0.29 -0.27 0.55 -999.00 -0.80 -0.04 NMB (%) -73.51 -18.48 -47.74 - 32.06 228.66 -999.00 -61.68 -53.43 NME (%) 73.51 84.20 48.54 37. 77 248.33 -999.00 76.41 53.43 MNB (%) -72.87 -13.78 -46.23 - 24.86 315.06 -999.00 -6.34 -53.97 MNE (%) 72.87 81.80 47.16 34. 63 322.26 -999.00 97.75 53.97 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -18.73 -1.78 -3.18 -0.94 0.86 3.45 -0.71 -30.58 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.73 8.09 3.24 1.11 0.94 3.45 0.88 30.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 20.15 10.57 3.79 1.47 1.10 4.21 1.21 34.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 39.05 30.49 13.25 6.05 1.41 0.00 4.08 65.36 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.37 34.29 9.43 4.41 2.19 8.01 0.83 63.00 Mean_Obs 25.48 9.61 6.67 2.94 0.38 0.00 1.15 57.23 Mean_Pred 6.75 7.83 3.49 2.00 1.24 3.45 0.44 26.65 Std_Dev_Obs 6.70 6.69 2. 68 1.11 0.27 0.00 1.02 6.69 Std_Dev_Pre 5.16 9.91 2. 19 0.90 0.60 2.47 0.25 17.74
Variance 405.94 111.65 14.33 2.17 1.22 17.73 1.47 1201.52

R 2 0.04 0.05 0.42 0.13 0.03 -999.00 0.03 0.12
BF 0.27 0.86 0.54 0.75 4.15 0.00 0.90 0.46
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-20 Table C-4n. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -122.89 -71.02 -31. 76 -7.09 138.37 197.99 24.07 -20.17 MFE (%) 122.89 108.52 46.62 37.98 138.37 197.99 58.30 47.25

A p -0.59 4.78 -0.27 0.22 4.57 53.62 -0.18 2.28 NMB (%) -73.17 15.70 -26.09 -2.91 508.18 20904.07 14.53 0.62 NME (%) 73.17 124.27 39.88 37. 18 508.18 20904.07 64.88 48.50 MNB (%) -73.66 10.81 -17.69 3.48 1070.38 3119.60 89.76 -1.41 MNE (%) 73.66 118.63 38.69 38. 50 1070.38 3119.60 114.86 46.76 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -12.68 0.74 -1.74 -0.07 2.61 21.82 0.41 0.29 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.68 5.88 2.66 0.88 2.61 21.82 1.84 22.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.73 13.02 3.40 1.10 3.11 28.77 2.72 35.59 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 32.46 11.03 12.57 3.80 1.45 1.47 9.86 56.75 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.20 63.78 9.23 4.66 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22 Mean_Obs 17.33 4.73 6.68 2.38 0.51 0.10 2.83 46.57 Mean_Pred 4.65 5.48 4.93 2.31 3.12 21.93 3.24 46.86 Std_Dev_Obs 6.18 3.01 2. 76 0.77 0.38 0.35 2.51 7.41 Std_Dev_Pre 3.83 13.49 2. 45 1.07 1.71 19.37 1.84 38.39
Variance 188.61 169.45 11.59 1.21 9.67 827.57 7.42 1266.49

R 2 0.25 0.03 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.27 0.05 0.13
BF 0.26 1.11 0.82 1.03 11.70 2.93 1.90 0.99 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-4o. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Okefenokee Class I

area.
OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -128.51 -179.19 31.20 -51.96 15.38 151.32 -127.01 -83.50 MFE (%) 128.51 179.19 43.66 66.15 92.26 162.36 127.01 83.50

A p -0.57 -0.56 0.83 -0.13 -0.23 0.04 -0.71 -0.33 NMB (%) -76.36 -92.60 53.82 - 31.70 5.19 217.14 -80.36 -56.54 NME (%) 76.36 92.60 61.43 49.69 109.76 270.83 80.36 56.54 MNB (%) -76.48 -92.69 52.43 - 31.75 160.17 -8.23 -75.22 -56.79 MNE (%) 76.48 92.69 62.30 51.45 208.59 31.64 75.22 56.79 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -14.61 -3.72 3.79 -0.69 0.02 0.59 -1.57 -26.00 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.61 3.72 4.33 1.09 0.41 0.74 1.57 26.00 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.31 4.06 5.77 1.22 0.55 0.88 1.81 27.22 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.45 8.07 11.63 4.86 1.77 2.07 3.93 52.70 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.29 3.56 21.29 4.24 1.36 2.15 1.12 35.48 Mean_Obs 19.13 4.02 7.05 2.18 0.37 0.27 1.96 45.99 Mean_Pred 4.52 0.30 10.85 1.49 0.39 0.86 0.38 19.99 Std_Dev_Obs 4.27 1.56 2. 04 0.85 0.39 0.61 0.94 5.57 Std_Dev_Pre 3.31 0.77 5. 18 1.11 0.32 0.52 0.27 8.41
Variance 234.25 16.49 33.34 1.48 0.31 0.78 3.27 740.97

R 2 0.07 0.01 0.28 0.23 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.13
BF 0.24 0.07 1.52 0.68 2.60 0.21 0.25 0.43 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-21 Table C-4p. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cape Romain Class I

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -124.88 -181.06 -94.53 -46.13 12.09 -31.75 -43.14 -122.25 MFE (%) 135.54 181.06 101.08 72.68 84.22 150.25 63.91 126.73

A p 0.56 -0.57 0.10 -0.25 1.56 -0.80 -0.58 0.06 NMB (%) -59.52 -93.83 -50.21 - 35.42 27.07 -75.42 -45.43 -69.84 NME (%) 78.50 93.83 61.05 49.83 104.69 108.25 53.72 74.60 MNB (%) -60.36 -93.35 -56.56 - 35.41 71.98 -4.48 -19.27 -70.13 MNE (%) 87.92 93.35 64.79 46.91 115.30 120.19 52.90 76.16 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.44 -2.51 -1.72 -0.37 0.06 -2.52 -1.23 -27.68 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.13 2.51 2.09 0.53 0.23 3.62 1.46 29.56 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.73 2.73 2.45 0.75 0.37 5.48 2.27 30.48 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.12 4.50 8.19 5.01 0.65 15.38 8.77 50.02 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 40.73 1.93 9.04 3.75 1.66 3.04 3.67 53.00 Mean_Obs 14.19 2.68 3.43 1.06 0.22 3.35 2.71 39.63 Mean_Pred 5.74 0.17 1.71 0.68 0.28 0.82 1.48 11.95 Std_Dev_Obs 6.77 1.02 1. 81 1.08 0.18 4.48 2.03 7.68 Std_Dev_Pre 9.02 0.43 2. 23 0.93 0.37 0.88 0.88 12.36
Variance 161.99 7.47 5.98 0.56 0.13 30.00 5.16 928.75

R 2 0.07 0.00 0.40 0.63 0.05 0.23 0.09 0.05
BF 0.40 0.07 0.43 0.62 1.72 0.75 0.81 0.30 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4q. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the St. Marks Class I

area. SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -126.89 -188.67 0.59 -14.74 1.18 160.72 -97.03 -97.60 MFE (%) 137.86 188.67 63.77 63.21 119.22 174.90 100.19 102.93

A p 0.37 -0.80 1.33 0.82 -0.69 3.18 -0.64 0.28 NMB (%) -68.20 -96.21 45.71 21. 88 -42.60 502.57 -67.55 -57.30 NME (%) 80.63 96.21 84.58 78.78 103.88 537.83 69.19 63.73 MNB (%) -60.48 -96.73 40.44 14. 39 195.14 3985.28 -60.84 -57.58 MNE (%) 88.12 96.73 85.00 69. 07 259.81 4022.29 64.66 64.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -12.62 -2.70 2.03 0.34 -0.20 0.93 -1.72 -23.78 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.92 2.70 3.76 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.76 26.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.81 2.84 5.77 1.86 0.70 1.37 2.07 28.55 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.51 4.76 9.53 3.98 2.05 1.13 4.89 50.25 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 33.63 0.96 22.22 7.25 0.64 4.74 1.75 64.45 Mean_Obs 18.50 2.80 4.45 1.57 0.47 0.19 2.54 41.51 Mean_Pred 5.88 0.11 6.48 1.91 0.27 1.12 0.83 17.73 Std_Dev_Obs 4.41 0.96 1. 96 1.04 0.58 0.37 1.09 6.13 Std_Dev_Pre 8.14 0.25 5. 95 2.16 0.19 1.16 0.45 16.11
Variance 249.94 8.05 33.28 3.45 0.49 1.87 4.27 814.88

R 2 0.02 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.03
BF 0.40 0.03 1.40 1.14 2.95 11.14 0.39 0.42 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-22 Table C-4r. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shenandoah Class I

area. SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -74.36 25.46 35.69 15. 95 133.54 200.00 -62.78 -25.64 MFE (%) 93.26 75.95 50.96 36.84 133.54 200.00 73.10 53.35

A p 5.97 1.09 5.98 4.44 3.08 -999.00 -0.54 3.27 NMB (%) 4.37 74.12 91.62 50.01 420.15 -999.00 -52.15 6.69 NME (%) 99.60 103.04 107.36 67. 27 420.15 -999.00 56.76 56.93 MNB (%) -9.26 79.51 87.61 49. 86 901.25 -999.00 -39.38 2.07 MNE (%) 96.56 110.24 100.76 66. 81 901.25 -999.00 54.53 57.60 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) 0.52 3.61 2.55 0.81 0.57 3.12 -0.47 2.16 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.86 5.02 2.99 1.09 0.57 3.12 0.51 18.34 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 28.13 6.76 7.50 2.78 0.65 3.91 0.61 34.08 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 20.73 11.73 5.74 2.68 0.35 0.00 1.92 42.00 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 144.46 24.52 40.06 14.58 1.41 8.41 0.89 179.34 Mean_Obs 11.90 4.87 2.78 1.62 0.14 0.00 0.90 32.21 Mean_Pred 12.42 8.48 5.33 2.43 0.71 3.12 0.43 34.37 Std_Dev_Obs 4.19 2.96 1. 49 0.69 0.09 0.00 0.49 6.21 Std_Dev_Pre 29.54 6.95 7. 90 2.83 0.33 2.40 0.22 36.39
Variance 791.22 45.64 56.28 7.74 0.42 15.25 0.37 1161.58

R 2 0.07 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.20 -999.00 0.37 0.12
BF 0.91 1.80 1.88 1.50 10.01 0.00 0.61 1.02 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4s. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shining Rock Class I

area. SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -75.84 -81.41 13.51 27.00 123.07 194.49 -1.93 -68.69 MFE (%) 86.97 107.46 56.47 58.31 131.08 194.49 144.41 74.39

A p 1.86 -0.12 0.39 0.57 3.68 36.95 -0.76 0.70 NMB (%) -32.22 -52.02 30.21 41. 98 483.48 9454.52 -69.54 -42.24 NME (%) 62.92 80.62 67.11 68. 10 499.53 9454.52 93.21 51.49 MNB (%) -43.15 -17.86 61.34 130.27 1099.73 1414.30 21.60 -44.28 MNE (%) 62.34 93.68 91.14 155. 33 1105.94 1414.30 142.80 51.78 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -2.64 -0.81 0.74 0.46 0.46 0.92 -0.43 -10.14 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.16 1.25 1.63 0.74 0.47 0.92 0.58 12.36 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.24 1.75 2.33 1.02 0.59 1.32 0.82 14.01 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.73 4.65 6.13 2.31 0.28 0.10 2.87 31.05 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 39.24 4.09 8.51 3.63 1.29 3.81 0.68 52.94 Mean_Obs 8.19 1.55 2.43 1.09 0.09 0.01 0.62 24.00 Mean_Pred 5.55 0.75 3.17 1.55 0.55 0.93 0.19 13.86 Std_Dev_Obs 4.17 1.30 1. 31 0.58 0.08 0.03 0.70 5.96 Std_Dev_Pre 8.28 1.00 2. 05 0.98 0.38 0.97 0.14 10.91
Variance 52.35 3.08 5.44 1.05 0.35 1.75 0.68 196.33

R 2 0.31 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.19
BF 0.57 0.79 1.61 2.30 12.00 2.52 0.86 0.56

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-23 Table C-4t. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -106.85 -109.16 -9.1 5 -54.86 77.60 200.00 -117.27 -69.04 MFE (%) 120.51 109.41 40.17 64.97 113.99 200.00 117.27 78.81

A p 1.69 -0.33 0.70 -0.04 -0.14 -999.00 -0.74 1.04 NMB (%) -47.35 -56.06 8.56 -36. 07 120.89 -999.00 -76.03 -41.33 NME (%) 84.16 56.35 41.07 46. 35 198.21 -999.00 76.03 57.32 MNB (%) -53.46 -61.27 2.84 -34. 17 389.14 -999.00 -71.89 -42.53 MNE (%) 82.66 61.52 39.22 48. 53 410.41 -999.00 71.89 57.28 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.62 -4.46 0.59 -0.98 0.65 3.74 -1.76 -21.39 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.11 4.49 2.83 1.26 1.06 3.74 1.76 29.67 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.62 6.66 3.79 1.53 1.30 4.54 2.07 32.63 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 36.05 21.36 11.04 4.69 2.95 0.00 4.24 61.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 97.08 14.24 18.78 4.49 2.52 9.09 1.12 125.72 Mean_Obs 20.32 7.96 6.89 2.72 0.54 0.00 2.31 51.75 Mean_Pred 10.70 3.50 7.48 1.74 1.19 3.74 0.55 30.36 Std_Dev_Obs 6.48 5.30 2. 40 1.08 0.67 0.00 1.17 6.11 Std_Dev_Pre 20.91 4.28 5. 23 1.17 0.75 2.64 0.29 26.57
Variance 467.50 44.35 14.40 2.35 1.70 20.58 4.28 1064.78

R 2 0.10 0.21 0.54 0.19 0.10 -999.00 0.08 0.11
BF 0.47 0.39 1.03 0.66 4.89 0.00 0.28 0.57
N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-4u. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Swanquarter Class I

area. SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -136.66 -161.55 -38.76 -28.09 46.67 34.79 -118.19 -118.69 MFE (%) 138.38 170.70 62.73 58.61 109.65 173.91 118.19 120.57

A p -0.13 1.44 2.83 1.96 0.27 -0.67 -0.60 0.18 NMB (%) -74.90 -69.17 11.83 17. 63 96.96 -46.99 -72.45 -68.09 NME (%) 77.12 92.56 65.71 77.26 189.16 134.86 72.45 70.44 MNB (%) -76.02 -77.95 -12.66 83.61 335.71 -81.74 -73.26 -69.58 MNE (%) 77.94 92.54 56.88 146.06 375.39 81.74 73.26 71.69 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.68 -1.72 0.37 0.18 0.16 -0.66 -2.15 -24.60 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.97 2.30 2.06 0.80 0.31 1.89 2.15 25.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 10.90 2.57 4.25 1.71 0.42 3.11 2.37 26.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.09 4.21 6.60 2.59 0.87 11.33 6.25 42.25 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.25 10.24 25.28 7.65 1.11 3.69 2.53 49.97 Mean_Obs 12.93 2.48 3.14 1.04 0.16 1.40 2.97 36.13 Mean_Pred 3.24 0.77 3.51 1.22 0.32 0.74 0.82 11.53 Std_Dev_Obs 3.88 0.85 1. 44 0.75 0.19 2.68 1.42 3.96 Std_Dev_Pre 4.36 2.22 5. 35 1.84 0.32 1.02 0.60 11.96
Variance 118.84 6.61 18.09 2.91 0.18 9.70 5.63 710.89

R 2 0.05 0.23 0.60 0.11 0.03 0.08 0.62 0.26
BF 0.24 0.22 0.87 1.84 4.36 0.09 0.27 0.30
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-24 Table C-4v. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Upper Buffalo Class I

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -138.41 -121.02 -23.25 -46.69 93.32 199.90 -110.88 -88.95 MFE (%) 139.43 121.02 44.59 56.99 108.59 199.90 126.30 90.01

A p -0.07 -0.37 -0.11 0.36 2.20 1232.47 -0.85 0.00 NMB (%) -77.41 -71.02 -13.97 - 31.38 262.69 767627.06 -78.16 -58.54 NME (%) 79.10 71.02 36.99 43. 46 275.35 767627.06 81.63 59.75 MNB (%) -78.49 -70.21 -11.36 - 29.34 1615.30 17510.96 -57.49 -57.86 MNE (%) 79.56 70.21 37.29 42. 69 1625.86 17510.96 84.47 58.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.11 -3.62 -0.67 -0.54 0.95 3.28 -2.71 -21.59 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.28 3.62 1.76 0.74 1.00 3.28 2.83 22.04 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.10 4.57 2.03 0.88 1.19 4.05 3.42 23.65 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 19.65 12.68 8.70 2.65 0.81 0.01 8.94 44.16 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.27 7.98 7.73 3.60 2.58 11.59 1.31 44.17 Mean_Obs 10.47 5.10 4.77 1.71 0.36 0.00 3.47 36.88 Mean_Pred 2.36 1.48 4.10 1.17 1.32 3.28 0.76 15.29 Std_Dev_Obs 4.10 3.60 1. 70 0.47 0.17 0.00 2.13 5.26 Std_Dev_Pre 3.75 1.87 2. 09 0.74 0.63 2.44 0.33 8.88
Variance 82.79 20.90 4.14 0.78 1.41 16.42 11.68 559.29

R 2 0.18 0.38 0.23 0.12 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01
BF 0.22 0.30 0.89 0.71 17.15 8.00 0.43 0.42

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5a. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 km VISTAS grid.

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.82 -121.18 -32.08 -63.17 22.51 188.69 -87.88 -49.58 MFE (%) 74.05 146.07 50.78 70.50 69.91 191.96 115.76 60.44

A p -0.50 0.44 -0.83 -0.28 -0.43 8.80 -0.65 -0.43 NMB (%) -39.35 -18.22 -29.24 - 42.51 36.38 18564.68 -69.20 -32.51 NME (%) 50.22 87.96 48.66 52. 21 97.47 18666.07 74.92 44.58 MNB (%) -38.14 -39.83 -15.63 - 41.16 156.91 7919.56 -39.56 -29.87 MNE (%) 51.57 102.75 43.37 51. 71 189.98 7956.43 88.73 44.15 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -48.14 -1.38 -6.15 -2.24 0.38 12.46 -2.26 -55.75 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 61.44 6.66 10.23 2.75 1.01 12.52 2.44 76.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.20 13.69 28.78 3.59 1.79 20.70 3.53 101.79 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 475.66 107.80 614.69 41.23 16.92 11.70 20.96 735.80 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 235.90 154.76 102.23 29.67 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01 Mean_Obs 122.36 7.57 21.03 5.26 1.04 0.07 3.26 171.51 Mean_Pred 74.22 6.19 14.88 3.03 1.42 12.52 1.01 115.76 Std_Dev_Obs 68.78 14.02 31. 42 3.03 1.23 0.57 2.77 72.23 Std_Dev_Pre 59.70 18.80 12. 73 3.01 1.23 16.52 1.03 74.73
Variance 6757.49 187.38 828.03 12.88 3.20 428.51 12.47 10360.90

R 2 0.22 0.48 0.20 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.11
BF 0.62 0.60 0.84 0.59 2.57 4.23 0.58 0.70
N 512 512 510 510 512 512 512 512

### C-25 Table C-5b. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Breton Island Class I

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -108.00 -197.37 -85.96 -103.52 -39.07 138.89 -103.81 -108.13 MFE (%) 113.52 197.37 88.07 103.52 106.38 165.39 103.81 109.77

A p -0.13 -0.96 -0.75 -0.68 -0.84 1.71 -0.37 -0.25 NMB (%) -58.22 -98.65 -60.76 - 69.59 -60.95 572.95 -61.85 -62.38 NME (%) 64.22 98.65 62.79 69.59 99.61 650.61 61.85 63.98 MNB (%) -60.00 -99.31 -53.74 -66.26 39.75 76.21 -63.36 -62.99 MNE (%) 66.37 99.31 56.03 66.26 126.72 130.85 63.36 64.73 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -42.55 -8.04 -5.76 -3.05 -0.78 1.64 -2.74 -69.94 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 46.94 8.04 5.95 3.05 1.28 1.87 2.74 71.73 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 52.63 10.62 10.17 3.77 2.59 2.49 3.16 79.19 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 126.22 29.70 46.34 12.96 11.47 1.93 10.72 171.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 109.49 1.16 11.69 4.20 1.84 5.21 6.78 129.27 Mean_Obs 73.10 8.15 9.47 4.38 1.28 0.29 4.44 112.12 Mean_Pred 30.54 0.11 3.72 1.33 0.50 1.93 1.69 42.17 Std_Dev_Obs 18.79 7.30 10. 41 2.76 2.32 0.55 2.01 19.64 Std_Dev_Pre 34.94 0.30 3. 36 0.93 0.52 1.69 1.72 40.19
Variance 2770.25 112.76 103. 42 14.21 6.70 6.18 9.96 6270.32

R 2 0.19 0.55 0.44 0.43 0.08 0.07 0.42 0.13
BF 0.40 0.01 0.46 0.34 1.40 0.51 0.37 0.37

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5c. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Brigantine Class I

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -68.36 -54.70 -42.36 -16.55 25.67 197.35 -96.66 -44.58 MFE (%) 76.35 101.20 51.78 34.66 67.60 197.35 133.02 55.90

A p -0.28 0.60 -0.83 -0.28 -0.44 17.73 -0.92 -0.70 NMB (%) -44.01 58.77 -63.48 - 14.87 38.85 16306.94 -81.39 -38.91 NME (%) 53.83 103.33 67.06 30. 43 98.91 16306.94 84.05 48.12 MNB (%) -43.87 -1.06 -27.55 -7.43 133.28 486.75 -76.23 -28.70 MNE (%) 54.42 87.49 40.23 34.29 162.56 486.75 76.23 42.52 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -53.74 7.87 -31.03 -1.17 0.43 8.35 -3.53 -81.61 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 65.73 13.84 32.78 2.40 1.08 8.35 3.64 100.93 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 77.68 25.55 110.38 3.47 1.68 9.45 5.34 154.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 275.18 71.94 614.69 41.23 6.83 1.13 20.65 735.80 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 197.92 115.45 102.23 29.67 3.80 21.08 1.62 223.13 Mean_Obs 122.10 13.40 48.89 7.88 1.10 0.05 4.34 209.75 Mean_Pred 68.36 21.27 17.86 6.71 1.52 8.40 0.81 128.14 Std_Dev_Obs 60.77 16.68 127. 43 7.80 1.30 0.24 4.16 133.57 Std_Dev_Pre 52.55 37.68 20. 47 5.76 1.05 4.52 0.31 56.24
Variance 6034.93 652.70 12184. 42 12.05 2.83 89.35 28.56 23754.77

R 2 0.24 0.74 0.88 0.85 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04
BF 0.56 0.99 0.72 0.93 2.33 0.27 0.22 0.71

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-26 Table C-5d. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Caney Creek Class I

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -69.34 -45.08 -7.66 - 68.17 31.62 190.50 -113.64 -43.67 MFE (%) 73.49 94.78 32.17 68.17 57.31 190.50 122.51 52.94

A p -0.46 0.69 -0.12 -0.34 -0.26 20.76 -0.81 -0.25 NMB (%) -46.53 23.99 -3.37 -49. 45 29.65 24425.54 -79.04 -30.60 NME (%) 50.44 86.91 28.24 49. 45 81.70 24425.54 79.74 40.54 MNB (%) -45.19 17.81 0.41 -48. 37 140.50 1964.48 -61.55 -26.81 MNE (%) 50.01 99.08 30.62 48. 37 158.09 1964.48 79.67 40.75 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -50.95 2.45 -0.66 -2.16 0.42 14.33 -3.40 -49.12 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 55.22 8.88 5.55 2.16 1.16 14.33 3.43 65.08 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 78.07 23.14 7.96 2.46 1.88 16.37 3.94 92.23 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 281.03 70.57 51.07 7.26 6.70 1.35 7.89 324.07 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 151.79 119.16 44.88 4.82 4.98 29.35 1.46 244.51 Mean_Obs 109.50 10.22 19.65 4.38 1.43 0.06 4.30 160.52 Mean_Pred 58.54 12.67 18.99 2.21 1.85 14.38 0.90 111.40 Std_Dev_Obs 61.21 17.65 10. 63 1.38 1.34 0.28 1.98 59.45 Std_Dev_Pre 44.67 27.86 10. 96 1.04 1.01 8.19 0.32 65.64
Variance 6095.27 535.44 63. 35 6.06 3.54 267.87 15.53 8506.03

R 2 0.15 0.30 0.52 0.29 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.04
BF 0.55 1.18 1.00 0.52 2.41 0.90 0.38 0.73
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-5e. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Chassahowitzka Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.60 -120.68 -35.75 -30.28 103.28 200.00 -20.70 -16.94 MFE (%) 65.36 143.24 47.42 50.30 115.65 200.00 41.49 34.42

A p 0.63 1.18 -0.34 0.35 0.04 -999.00 -0.48 0.51 NMB (%) -30.52 -46.96 -29.64 - 18.68 199.83 -999.00 -24.95 -9.49 NME (%) 45.19 90.60 40.89 44. 17 239.31 -999.00 41.42 31.54 MNB (%) -36.55 -38.40 -24.84 - 16.13 522.15 -999.00 -9.21 -10.29 MNE (%) 47.47 100.64 38.58 45. 44 531.13 -999.00 37.57 31.36 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -23.98 -2.50 -6.10 -1.16 1.31 28.97 -0.67 -11.87 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 35.52 4.83 8.42 2.73 1.57 28.97 1.11 39.44 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 40.90 6.12 11.22 3.14 1.84 30.72 1.65 44.81 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 121.53 9.87 71.19 10.37 3.58 0.00 6.40 169.84 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 198.53 21.47 46.83 14.02 3.71 58.76 3.31 256.55 Mean_Obs 78.59 5.33 20.60 6.19 0.66 0.00 2.69 125.05 Mean_Pred 54.61 2.83 14.49 5.03 1.97 28.97 2.02 113.18 Std_Dev_Obs 22.96 2.23 14. 55 1.97 0.74 0.00 1.34 19.06 Std_Dev_Pre 46.76 5.23 10. 49 3.27 0.87 10.47 0.50 50.42
Variance 1673.04 37.40 125. 95 9.83 3.38 943.77 2.73 2007.87

R 2 0.53 0.00 0.56 0.19 0.11 -999.00 0.07 0.25
BF 0.63 0.62 0.75 0.84 6.22 0.00 0.91 0.90
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-27 Table C-5f. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -64.44 -114.37 -8.3 4 -64.29 4.78 190.48 45.44 -51.06 MFE (%) 73.26 131.32 41.25 76.94 46.01 190.48 141.50 59.52

A p -0.48 1.00 -0.17 -0.03 -0.15 -999.00 -0.85 -0.44 NMB (%) -48.01 -40.98 -3.97 -41. 16 6.48 -999.00 -65.26 -39.23 NME (%) 54.69 87.80 50.87 57. 36 50.78 -999.00 100.69 46.26 MNB (%) -40.29 -55.39 9.05 -38. 89 40.67 -999.00 -25.45 -33.00 MNE (%) 50.79 83.95 45.41 58. 09 72.18 -999.00 70.16 42.53 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -88.61 -1.87 -1.03 -2.07 0.07 10.91 -1.11 -91.72 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 100.93 4.01 13.15 2.88 0.56 10.91 1.71 108.16 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 126.52 5.37 21.92 3.25 0.81 12.79 3.03 138.10 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 376.51 16.47 96.66 9.78 3.19 0.00 9.23 507.89 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 194.78 32.90 80.36 9.48 2.69 29.03 1.37 282.09 Mean_Obs 184.56 4.57 25.85 5.03 1.10 0.00 1.70 233.80 Mean_Pred 95.95 2.70 24.83 2.96 1.17 10.91 0.59 142.08 Std_Dev_Obs 81.83 3.53 18. 12 1.51 0.59 0.00 2.77 91.26 Std_Dev_Pre 52.37 7.17 17. 61 2.35 0.55 6.84 0.28 66.55
Variance 16006.81 28.82 480.69 10.57 0.66 163.56 9.17 19072.43

R 2 0.01 0.54 0.04 0.03 0.00 -999.00 0.13 0.02
BF 0.60 0.45 1.09 0.61 1.41 0.00 0.43 0.67
N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-5g. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Dolly Sods Class I

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -72.68 -116.04 -46.04 - 106.64 -18.55 191.30 -133.53 -70.32 MFE (%) 79.52 127.19 65.52 106.64 42.44 191.30 133.53 75.20

A p -0.45 0.19 -0.37 -0.73 -0.37 -999.00 -0.93 -0.46 NMB (%) -47.87 -60.19 -34.19 -69. 89 -17.51 -999.00 -86.58 -47.83 NME (%) 54.04 77.85 49.85 69. 89 34.44 -999.00 86.58 52.21 MNB (%) -45.39 -58.71 -26.38 - 68.33 3.88 -999.00 -77.99 -45.29 MNE (%) 53.23 75.27 50.74 68. 33 49.74 -999.00 77.99 50.65 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -73.37 -1.72 -4.04 -2.89 -0.14 3.03 -1.36 -88.24 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.83 2.23 5.89 2.89 0.28 3.03 1.36 96.32 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 113.35 2.55 6.91 3.11 0.38 3.37 1.78 129.42 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 404.99 5.69 26.51 7.50 1.78 0.00 4.85 451.54 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 223.28 6.78 16.74 2.06 1.11 5.67 0.34 243.89 Mean_Obs 153.28 2.86 11.82 4.14 0.82 0.00 1.57 184.51 Mean_Pred 79.91 1.14 7.78 1.25 0.68 3.03 0.21 96.26 Std_Dev_Obs 78.10 1.10 5. 71 1.22 0.32 0.00 1.21 80.44 Std_Dev_Pre 63.83 1.73 4. 41 0.43 0.29 1.51 0.07 68.63
Variance 12847.43 6.53 47.69 9.70 0.14 11.38 3.18 16750.30

R 2 0.06 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.10 -999.00 0.32 0.03
BF 0.55 0.41 0.74 0.32 1.04 0.00 0.22 0.55 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-28 Table C-5h. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Everglades Class I

area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -78.63 -193.20 -20.53 - 23.81 -1.47 146.26 -106.69 -72.38 MFE (%) 92.21 193.20 60.07 60.39 102.54 182.68 106.69 81.65

A p 0.30 -0.92 -0.77 0.09 -0.84 0.02 -0.77 -0.24 NMB (%) -34.44 -97.70 -40.91 - 20.12 -37.65 365.97 -75.50 -42.18 NME (%) 56.66 97.70 68.37 46.07 111.98 526.54 75.50 54.59 MNB (%) -42.02 -98.16 3.60 - 16.04 116.22 27.90 -66.00 -41.14 MNE (%) 60.29 98.16 52.64 41.20 179.95 127.20 66.00 52.69 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -13.47 -3.75 -7.39 -0.95 -0.50 2.67 -2.44 -34.61 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 22.15 3.75 12.35 2.18 1.50 3.84 2.44 44.79 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.53 4.08 29.80 3.20 3.59 5.05 3.57 58.45 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 79.12 8.02 134.42 10.81 16.92 11.70 13.75 196.06 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 103.14 0.67 31.29 11.74 2.74 11.92 3.18 149.58 Mean_Obs 39.10 3.84 18.06 4.74 1.34 0.73 3.23 82.04 Mean_Pred 25.63 0.09 10.67 3.79 0.84 3.40 0.79 47.43 Std_Dev_Obs 17.43 1.72 27. 39 2.70 3.37 2.41 2.64 28.80 Std_Dev_Pre 28.94 0.17 8. 82 3.09 0.81 3.01 0.63 42.20
Variance 704.09 16.68 887.81 10.22 12.91 25.47 12.75 3416.20

R 2 0.35 0.19 0.01 0.18 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.01
BF 0.58 0.02 1.04 0.80 2.16 0.27 0.34 0.59

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5i. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Great Smokey Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.76 -163.78 -1.34 - 63.89 1.23 200.00 -100.86 -52.84 MFE (%) 65.31 197.12 37.84 64.35 43.61 200.00 124.35 54.90

A p -0.31 -0.85 0.42 -0.25 0.74 -999.00 -0.83 -0.20 NMB (%) -43.46 -97.29 -0.61 -46. 94 5.71 -999.00 -80.08 -38.18 NME (%) 44.65 97.64 39.61 47. 41 43.59 -999.00 83.61 39.87 MNB (%) -43.44 -99.12 13.10 -46. 37 48.53 -999.00 -27.41 -37.69 MNE (%) 45.09 99.12 44.16 46. 84 80.70 -999.00 107.85 39.86 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -73.15 -2.67 -0.11 -2.25 0.06 7.32 -1.63 -79.67 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 75.14 2.68 7.46 2.28 0.42 7.32 1.70 83.20 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 92.01 3.23 10.13 2.54 0.57 8.15 2.15 100.92 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 308.51 10.16 33.88 7.71 1.52 0.00 4.89 347.18 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 212.34 1.54 47.97 5.81 2.66 17.08 0.82 277.94 Mean_Obs 168.29 2.75 18.83 4.80 0.97 0.00 2.03 208.67 Mean_Pred 95.15 0.07 18.71 2.55 1.02 7.32 0.40 129.00 Std_Dev_Obs 64.74 2.07 7. 77 1.29 0.37 0.00 1.42 65.71 Std_Dev_Pre 58.12 0.31 8. 98 1.16 0.53 3.68 0.15 66.87
Variance 8466.67 10.42 102.61 6.47 0.32 66.48 4.61 10185.05

R 2 0.33 0.56 0.06 0.27 0.04 -999.00 0.00 0.30
BF 0.57 0.01 1.13 0.54 1.49 0.00 0.73 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-29 Table C-5j. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Hercules Glade Class I

area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -62.64 -64.72 -31.35 -67.72 88.94 192.00 -37.50 -27.40 MFE (%) 73.75 95.79 40.17 67.72 93.38 192.00 51.55 43.36

A p -0.54 -0.19 -0.33 -0.31 0.80 -999.00 -0.58 -0.45 NMB (%) -39.63 -21.48 -26.27 - 48.11 176.06 -999.00 -36.57 -19.99 NME (%) 52.05 55.67 35.45 48. 11 190.77 -999.00 47.96 36.40 MNB (%) -37.25 -18.60 -22.76 - 48.54 330.59 -999.00 -23.65 -14.88 MNE (%) 52.07 75.95 33.30 48. 54 334.07 -999.00 40.40 34.41 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -41.28 -3.14 -4.77 -2.39 1.84 28.38 -1.05 -31.35 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 54.21 8.13 6.44 2.39 1.99 28.38 1.38 57.08 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.66 16.53 8.68 2.63 2.53 30.85 1.93 90.89 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 339.47 99.26 42.42 9.36 4.42 0.00 8.18 377.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 155.36 80.27 28.32 6.45 7.97 47.45 3.41 207.61 Mean_Obs 104.15 14.60 18.16 4.96 1.04 0.00 2.88 156.80 Mean_Pred 62.87 11.47 13.39 2.57 2.88 28.38 1.83 125.46 Std_Dev_Obs 61.34 27.70 8. 58 1.45 0.82 0.00 1.57 52.29 Std_Dev_Pre 49.77 22.81 6. 10 1.33 1.52 12.33 0.63 59.02
Variance 6832.22 273.09 75. 41 6.90 6.43 951.43 3.74 8260.55

R 2 0.02 0.64 0.29 0.46 0.01 -999.00 0.00 0.05
BF 0.63 0.81 0.77 0.51 4.31 0.00 0.76 0.85
N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25



### Table C-5k. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the James Rover Face Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -44.05 -161.63 -45.20 - 99.63 -17.57 200.00 -151.62 -46.37 MFE (%) 55.27 173.62 50.38 99.63 35.59 200.00 151.62 52.93

A p -0.23 0.64 -0.74 -0.70 -0.76 -999.00 -0.96 -0.27 NMB (%) -29.70 -72.08 -45.42 -66. 94 -25.82 -999.00 -88.49 -33.54 NME (%) 40.79 96.06 47.83 66. 94 36.46 -999.00 88.49 39.47 MNB (%) -27.68 -77.76 -32.72 - 65.82 -5.07 -999.00 -85.78 -32.04 MNE (%) 41.58 96.60 38.51 65. 82 36.00 -999.00 85.78 39.68 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -48.04 -3.12 -11.73 -4.71 -0.28 6.09 -2.62 -71.76 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 65.98 4.16 12.36 4.71 0.39 6.09 2.62 84.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 78.63 4.57 23.32 5.01 0.79 6.47 3.13 97.61 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 274.58 8.70 119.43 11.72 4.58 0.00 10.28 324.44 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 212.68 14.24 30.79 3.53 1.11 9.46 0.44 237.97 Mean_Obs 161.76 4.33 25.83 7.03 1.07 0.00 2.96 213.98 Mean_Pred 113.71 1.21 14.10 2.32 0.79 6.09 0.34 142.22 Std_Dev_Obs 44.65 1.96 23. 46 1.98 0.80 0.00 1.76 52.76 Std_Dev_Pre 62.85 3.39 6. 34 0.64 0.21 2.23 0.07 65.78
Variance 6182.14 20.87 543. 67 25.14 0.62 41.85 9.82 9528.45

R 2 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.22 0.13 -999.00 0.00 0.13
BF 0.72 0.22 0.67 0.34 0.95 0.00 0.14 0.68

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-30 Table C-5l. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Linville Gorge Class I

area.
LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -62.93 -150.69 -30.70 - 87.63 -18.24 196.89 -153.13 -57.00 MFE (%) 67.74 159.27 40.91 87.63 31.41 196.89 153.13 60.02

A p -0.19 -0.02 0.15 -0.33 0.08 3.84 -0.82 -0.23 NMB (%) -39.98 -71.27 -23.15 - 59.18 -15.85 5689.19 -86.95 -38.66 NME (%) 44.99 82.09 32.56 59. 18 28.30 5689.19 86.95 41.53 MNB (%) -41.43 -74.75 -21.29 - 59.63 -11.88 384.10 -86.53 -39.51 MNE (%) 46.79 85.40 33.45 59.63 27.35 384.10 86.53 42.81 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -58.86 -1.63 -3.65 -2.69 -0.13 5.25 -2.09 -71.19 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 66.23 1.88 5.14 2.69 0.23 5.25 2.09 76.47 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 75.30 2.08 6.40 2.81 0.29 5.68 2.19 87.22 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 290.29 4.53 31.89 6.06 1.27 2.03 4.03 343.89 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 235.90 4.41 36.79 4.06 1.37 9.82 0.75 266.44 Mean_Obs 147.22 2.29 15.77 4.55 0.81 0.09 2.40 184.14 Mean_Pred 88.35 0.66 12.12 1.86 0.68 5.34 0.31 112.95 Std_Dev_Obs 49.16 0.94 6. 92 0.97 0.26 0.43 0.74 52.20 Std_Dev_Pre 60.94 1.28 7. 33 0.84 0.30 2.38 0.14 65.76
Variance 5669.60 4.34 41. 00 7.88 0.09 32.28 4.81 7607.62

R 2 0.41 0.10 0.51 0.36 0.29 0.18 0.29 0.41
BF 0.59 0.25 0.79 0.40 0.88 0.22 0.13 0.60

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5m. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mammoth Cave Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -65.12 -134.11 -64.77 -68.22 37.17 183.33 73.57 -57.57 MFE (%) 68.90 147.55 66.39 68.22 55.41 183.33 156.43 60.57

A p -0.38 -0.37 0.07 -0.25 -0.53 -999.00 -0.69 -0.39 NMB (%) -46.69 -57.44 -44.40 - 49.42 22.76 -999.00 -28.66 -42.27 NME (%) 49.96 65.21 46.28 49. 42 72.16 -999.00 117.76 44.92 MNB (%) -41.05 -64.03 -45.70 - 48.73 103.82 -999.00 23.87 -37.74 MNE (%) 45.22 84.58 47.41 48. 73 117.45 -999.00 124.55 41.05 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -83.29 -5.79 -9.61 -2.75 0.29 13.40 -0.32 -96.83 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 89.11 6.58 10.02 2.75 0.93 13.40 1.31 102.89 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 120.48 10.17 11.30 3.15 1.58 15.17 1.60 136.14 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 347.31 107.80 40.53 9.05 8.22 0.00 4.63 405.74 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 216.80 68.26 43.56 6.76 3.90 25.46 1.41 246.32 Mean_Obs 178.37 10.09 21.64 5.57 1.28 0.00 1.11 229.07 Mean_Pred 95.08 4.29 12.03 2.82 1.58 13.40 0.79 132.24 Std_Dev_Obs 68.00 21.11 7. 98 1.75 1.55 0.00 1.56 65.54 Std_Dev_Pre 56.54 13.85 8. 66 1.42 0.69 7.28 0.27 65.53
Variance 14514.27 103.51269 127. 72 9.90 2.51 230.24 2.55 18532.89

R 2 0.00 0.93 0.54 0.29 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.01
BF 0.59 0.36 0.54 0.51 2.04 0.00 0.62 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-31 Table C-5n. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -20.59 -53.58 -22.20 -18.82 107.61 190.54 -13.23 20.38 MFE (%) 66.65 111.83 49.34 43.70 113.87 190.54 37.67 54.93

A p -0.13 0.07 -0.22 -0.25 0.45 72.50 -0.38 0.46 NMB (%) 4.74 30.45 -27.80 - 22.91 206.49 87137.63 -21.72 40.81 NME (%) 59.76 64.63 44.49 40. 91 227.86 87137.63 36.98 65.30 MNB (%) 6.00 58.25 5.73 1. 02 587.75 13729.83 -3.73 47.74 MNE (%) 65.16 150.88 56.28 48. 24 592.40 13729.83 36.45 69.83 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.35 6.29 -4.29 -1.12 2.99 69.04 -1.12 69.50 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 67.43 13.36 6.87 2.00 3.30 69.04 1.91 111.22 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 83.82 21.83 9.85 2.64 3.77 76.00 2.60 136.16 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 263.55 105.09 40.46 10.36 6.65 1.56 11.69 287.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 228.22 112.07 31.38 7.75 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01 Mean_Obs 112.84 20.67 15.43 4.89 1.45 0.08 5.15 170.33 Mean_Pred 118.19 26.96 11.14 3.77 4.44 69.12 4.03 239.83 Std_Dev_Obs 63.96 30.73 10. 19 2.42 1.37 0.33 2.83 43.37 Std_Dev_Pre 88.99 38.04 6. 24 1.47 1.73 32.57 1.04 111.15
Variance 7025.62 476.67 97.08 6.99 14.18 5776.49 6.75 18538.89

R 2 0.17 0.68 0.22 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.32 0.00
BF 1.06 1.58 1.06 1.01 6.88 12.57 0.96 1.48

N 22 22 20 20 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5o. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Okefenokee Class I

area.
OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -79.19 -151.20 -7.49 - 66.68 18.36 193.37 -117.48 -60.64 MFE (%) 79.72 153.54 42.51 78.30 75.40 193.37 121.37 60.64

A p -0.23 -0.62 -0.49 -0.21 0.42 5.42 -0.71 -0.10 NMB (%) -49.55 -78.69 -18.89 - 42.37 30.38 6970.71 -79.40 -43.75 NME (%) 50.03 80.92 50.95 62. 56 90.15 6970.71 80.10 43.75 MNB (%) -52.76 -80.49 6.44 - 39.32 296.99 62.41 -68.22 -42.38 MNE (%) 53.31 83.19 39.20 60.73 338.55 62.41 72.60 42.38 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -47.55 -4.38 -6.64 -3.20 0.24 4.11 -2.14 -69.45 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 48.02 4.51 17.90 4.72 0.72 4.11 2.16 69.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 57.10 5.46 37.27 7.22 0.93 4.49 2.47 88.19 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 271.57 15.83 156.35 29.54 1.57 1.36 4.79 341.01 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 208.50 6.03 80.47 23.21 2.23 8.70 1.41 308.25 Mean_Obs 95.97 5.57 35.14 7.54 0.79 0.06 2.69 158.76 Mean_Pred 48.41 1.19 28.50 4.35 1.04 4.17 0.55 89.30 Std_Dev_Obs 57.98 3.49 32. 48 6.19 0.45 0.28 1.33 60.33 Std_Dev_Pre 44.25 1.86 19. 09 5.04 0.59 1.75 0.33 57.69
Variance 3260.75 29.83 1388. 71 52.15 0.86 20.15 6.12 7777.06

R 2 0.69 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.06 0.09 0.31
BF 0.47 0.20 1.06 0.61 3.97 0.07 0.32 0.58
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-32 Table C-5p. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cape Romain Class I

area.
ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.37 -143.06 -55.60 -71.38 19.21 200.00 -17.45 -51.44 MFE (%) 73.61 169.89 59.90 73.52 93.27 200.00 88.22 62.26

A p -0.31 3.18 -0.25 -0.08 0.66 -999.00 -0.16 -0.30 NMB (%) -38.82 -13.25 -36.31 - 41.50 54.48 -999.00 -35.45 -35.48 NME (%) 57.49 135.58 44.40 46. 11 122.86 -999.00 63.08 47.16 MNB (%) -29.54 -30.23 -36.69 - 48.41 204.20 -999.00 327.16 -30.91 MNE (%) 53.90 131.34 42.01 50. 87 254.18 -999.00 396.06 45.14 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -33.72 -0.69 -7.33 -2.27 0.38 6.16 -0.91 -47.20 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 49.93 7.06 8.97 2.53 0.85 6.16 1.62 62.73 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 67.15 12.07 14.36 2.93 1.06 7.11 2.10 79.95 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 234.53 13.18 70.65 14.42 1.77 0.00 7.17 270.34 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 162.03 55.10 52.73 13.30 2.93 13.62 6.04 189.41 Mean_Obs 86.86 5.21 20.20 5.48 0.69 0.00 2.57 133.01 Mean_Pred 53.14 4.52 12.86 3.21 1.07 6.16 1.66 85.82 Std_Dev_Obs 49.18 2.74 15. 93 3.04 0.40 0.00 1.72 46.84 Std_Dev_Pre 39.67 12.76 12. 71 3.08 0.82 3.62 1.15 49.11
Variance 4508.59 145.67 206. 27 8.57 1.12 50.58 4.39 6392.06

R 2 0.01 0.07 0.40 0.66 0.08 -999.00 0.02 0.00
BF 0.70 0.70 0.63 0.52 3.04 0.00 4.27 0.69

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5q. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the St. Marks Class I

area. SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -65.33 -155.89 -5.70 - 36.19 7.23 199.98 -92.52 -53.12 MFE (%) 69.16 155.89 53.89 56.79 89.12 199.98 97.18 56.84

A p -0.06 -0.53 0.24 0.61 -0.16 1920.06 -0.34 -0.03 NMB (%) -40.40 -74.41 0.20 -4.6 3 26.17 1762079.63 -62.69 -34.34 NME (%) 45.02 74.41 50.55 56. 59 110.11 1762079.63 64.18 38.46 MNB (%) -42.17 -83.45 18.88 - 10.13 268.57 113272.12 -57.20 -35.23 MNE (%) 46.35 83.45 58.03 56. 61 322.15 113272.12 62.93 39.24 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -37.22 -3.58 0.04 -0.28 0.23 6.90 -1.93 -47.55 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.48 3.58 10.40 3.39 0.98 6.90 1.98 53.27 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 51.84 4.16 14.75 5.69 1.33 7.80 2.30 65.75 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 174.11 17.40 76.59 17.16 4.06 0.01 7.80 207.54 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 162.80 8.26 95.29 27.58 3.41 17.29 5.13 200.98 Mean_Obs 92.14 4.81 20.59 5.99 0.89 0.00 3.08 138.50 Mean_Pred 54.92 1.23 20.63 5.71 1.12 6.90 1.15 90.94 Std_Dev_Obs 34.96 3.53 18. 04 3.86 0.76 0.00 1.60 30.80 Std_Dev_Pre 40.81 2.25 20. 11 7.30 0.89 3.73 1.14 51.92
Variance 2687.22 17.32 217. 69 32.39 1.76 60.83 5.31 4323.43

R 2 0.29 0.65 0.48 0.37 0.09 0.04 0.37 0.22
BF 0.58 0.17 1.19 0.90 3.69 49.29 0.43 0.65
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-33 Table C-5r. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shenandoah Class I

area. SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -76.03 12.44 -21.00 - 77.27 13.36 175.00 -119.18 -69.71 MFE (%) 84.20 97.89 50.51 78.63 50.24 175.00 119.18 77.03

A p -0.46 -0.13 -0.84 -0.60 -0.75 -999.00 -0.94 -0.36 NMB (%) -49.46 51.63 -43.57 -57. 04 -16.01 -999.00 -80.94 -44.97 NME (%) 56.28 129.69 59.35 58. 47 50.78 -999.00 80.94 51.51 MNB (%) -45.12 149.15 -2.40 -52. 83 59.10 -999.00 -72.31 -41.96 MNE (%) 55.84 198.87 48.56 54. 30 86.79 -999.00 72.31 50.86 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -86.47 3.04 -8.89 -3.12 -0.18 8.24 -2.65 -99.38 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 98.39 7.64 12.11 3.20 0.57 8.24 2.65 113.84 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 117.52 10.84 31.39 4.09 1.17 9.41 3.88 135.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 354.08 32.37 150.90 15.51 6.59 0.00 15.30 375.09 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 192.70 28.15 24.29 6.22 1.63 16.00 0.91 240.70 Mean_Obs 174.83 5.89 20.40 5.48 1.12 0.00 3.27 221.00 Mean_Pred 88.37 8.93 11.51 2.35 0.94 8.24 0.62 121.62 Std_Dev_Obs 74.90 6.47 29. 56 2.49 1.30 0.00 2.91 66.32 Std_Dev_Pre 63.95 8.06 6. 22 1.10 0.33 4.63 0.18 79.02
Variance 13811.26 117.59460 985. 14 16.77 1.37 88.53 15.09 18260.59

R 2 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 -999.00 0.01 0.03
BF 0.55 2.49 0.98 0.47 1.59 0.00 0.28 0.58

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5s. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shining Rock Class I

area. SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -64.10 -187.59 -31.54 - 28.66 -29.64 199.31 -132.94 -57.06 MFE (%) 68.47 187.59 39.71 36.19 41.93 199.31 132.94 59.79

A p -0.55 -0.85 0.57 0.14 -0.39 151.98 -0.86 -0.52 NMB (%) -44.23 -96.56 -20.83 - 23.28 -29.58 50992.11 -83.16 -41.26 NME (%) 48.75 96.56 33.83 31. 40 38.94 50992.11 83.16 44.09 MNB (%) -42.37 -96.50 -21.93 - 21.05 -19.64 12340.48 -78.61 -39.81 MNE (%) 47.60 96.50 33.53 29. 33 33.81 12340.48 78.61 42.98 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -71.73 -3.00 -3.26 -0.57 -0.31 5.56 -1.51 -80.99 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 79.06 3.00 5.30 0.77 0.41 5.56 1.51 86.54 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 106.33 3.22 6.88 0.95 0.57 5.84 1.73 114.15 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 475.66 6.49 23.94 3.86 2.55 0.06 3.68 518.88 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 214.07 0.96 37.53 4.41 1.56 8.90 0.50 250.07 Mean_Obs 162.18 3.11 15.66 2.45 1.05 0.01 1.82 196.28 Mean_Pred 90.45 0.11 12.40 1.88 0.74 5.57 0.31 115.28 Std_Dev_Obs 77.95 1.22 4. 55 0.73 0.51 0.02 0.88 80.56 Std_Dev_Pre 56.81 0.21 7. 07 0.80 0.28 1.82 0.08 61.81
Variance 11306.41 10.38869 47. 33 0.90 0.33 34.06 2.98 13029.82

R 2 0.11 0.03 0.26 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.21 0.13
BF 0.58 0.03 0.78 0.79 0.80 24.88 0.21 0.60
N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

### C-34 Table C-5t. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -70.46 -117.95 -10.05 -80.92 22.60 199.72 -129.72 -48.58 MFE (%) 80.31 143.41 59.66 83.49 59.52 199.72 129.72 60.40

A p -0.26 -0.05 0.81 -0.45 0.37 919.30 -0.72 -0.12 NMB (%) -39.82 -33.47 14.40 - 55.11 43.23 738981.75 -79.24 -28.95 NME (%) 49.60 93.13 62.85 57. 44 76.60 738981.75 79.24 41.90 MNB (%) -41.83 -47.12 12.97 - 54.30 71.45 6291.68 -77.36 -29.54 MNE (%) 53.89 95.39 63.20 57. 30 99.81 6291.68 77.36 44.20 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -51.76 -3.37 3.35 -3.26 0.43 11.39 -2.45 -53.35 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 64.47 9.37 14.63 3.40 0.76 11.39 2.45 77.22 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 76.05 17.21 18.18 3.72 0.99 13.95 2.68 90.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 279.55 63.69 41.03 11.07 2.28 0.03 5.08 325.68 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 208.05 60.69 74.21 6.10 3.12 31.20 1.41 286.87 Mean_Obs 129.97 10.07 23.28 5.92 0.99 0.00 3.09 184.32 Mean_Pred 78.21 6.70 26.63 2.66 1.42 11.39 0.64 130.96 Std_Dev_Obs 65.73 16.76 8. 98 1.85 0.45 0.01 1.08 62.72 Std_Dev_Pre 64.39 15.57 20. 92 1.40 0.82 8.24 0.33 87.85
Variance 5783.50 296.22 330. 57 13.84 0.98 194.58 7.16 8218.50

R 2 0.38 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.30
BF 0.58 0.53 1.13 0.46 1.71 2.91 0.23 0.70

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5u. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Swanquarter Class I

area. SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.96 -122.20 -58.99 -76.45 31.37 187.73 -131.45 -49.02 MFE (%) 81.41 156.01 58.99 79.31 74.32 194.88 131.45 62.35

A p 0.03 0.45 -0.79 0.21 1.01 6.38 -0.74 0.00 NMB (%) -24.66 3.84 -52.47 - 50.51 50.46 7507.01 -80.76 -31.38 NME (%) 57.70 93.70 52.47 55. 29 100.20 7623.59 80.76 46.10 MNB (%) -28.04 -19.11 -41.81 - 51.65 183.63 -58.29 -77.44 -29.30 MNE (%) 59.96 125.41 41.81 55.08 214.89 58.29 77.44 45.20 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -20.67 0.29 -12.17 -2.42 0.31 3.93 -2.95 -42.55 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 48.38 6.98 12.17 2.65 0.62 3.99 2.95 62.51 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 58.52 10.49 24.00 2.90 0.87 4.51 3.25 76.28 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 209.85 45.16 128.63 7.73 1.34 1.20 7.26 243.51 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 216.04 65.32 26.40 9.32 2.68 8.88 1.89 244.55 Mean_Obs 83.84 7.44 23.19 4.79 0.62 0.05 3.65 135.60 Mean_Pred 63.17 7.73 11.02 2.37 0.93 3.98 0.70 93.05 Std_Dev_Obs 43.76 9.31 24. 50 1.68 0.34 0.25 1.34 39.17 Std_Dev_Pre 60.46 16.51 6. 37 1.92 0.62 2.16 0.41 60.38
Variance 3425.07 110.06 576. 21 8.44 0.75 20.33 10.56 5818.45

R 2 0.21 0.63 0.38 0.35 0.19 0.12 0.00 0.04
BF 0.72 0.81 0.58 0.48 2.84 0.02 0.23 0.71
N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-35 Table C-5v. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Upper Buffalo Class I

area.
UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.22 -94.84 -21.14 -69.02 52.35 191.67 -150.24 -45.58 MFE (%) 70.32 123.99 27.94 69.02 70.13 191.67 150.24 52.57

A p -0.40 -0.20 -0.56 -0.30 0.18 -999.00 -0.92 -0.34 NMB (%) -39.96 -21.91 -20.56 - 50.26 75.18 -999.00 -89.44 -32.00 NME (%) 47.24 99.30 27.44 50. 26 110.32 -999.00 89.44 39.01 MNB (%) -39.30 -4.26 -15.33 -48. 75 150.41 -999.00 -84.89 -29.86 MNE (%) 47.64 119.52 22.99 48. 75 162.88 -999.00 84.89 37.75 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -40.13 -2.13 -3.40 -2.13 0.87 15.10 -7.97 -48.64 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 47.45 9.67 4.53 2.13 1.27 15.10 7.97 59.30 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 71.44 20.14 8.32 2.49 1.81 17.18 9.76 84.24 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 273.55 98.02 52.31 7.21 5.34 0.00 20.96 311.47 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 163.12 78.69 23.01 5.03 6.32 29.04 1.68 204.34 Mean_Obs 100.43 9.74 16.53 4.24 1.15 0.00 8.91 152.01 Mean_Pred 60.30 7.61 13.13 2.11 2.02 15.10 0.94 103.37 Std_Dev_Obs 57.29 21.23 9. 64 1.24 0.96 0.00 5.76 53.33 Std_Dev_Pre 47.58 18.03 5. 84 0.95 1.15 8.38 0.31 57.74
Variance 5103.16 405.65 69. 21 6.20 3.27 295.24 95.35 7097.14

R 2 0.12 0.22 0.35 0.09 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.04
BF 0.61 0.96 0.85 0.51 2.50 0.00 0.15 0.70

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-36 C.2.3 Class I Area Model Performance Evaluation



### Below we summarize the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance at each of the Class I area within and nearby the VI STAS region for the best and worst 20% days and then for all days during 2002.

C.2.3.1 Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama

C.2.3.1.1 SIPS Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-3a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-37 Figure C-3b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-38 Figure C-4. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, Alabama and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-39 2.3.1.2 SIPS Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-5a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-40 Figure C-5b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-41 Figure C-6. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, Alabama and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-42 2.3.1.3 SIPS for All Days

Figure C-7. 

### Time series of predicted and observ ed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Si psey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-43 Figure C-7. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-44 2.3.2 Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida

2.3.2.1 CHAS Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-8a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-45 Figure C-8b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-46 Figure C-9. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-47 2.3.2.2 CHAS Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-10a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-48 Figure C-10b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-49 Figure C-11. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-50 2.3.2.3 CHAS for All Days

Figure C-12. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-51 Figure C-12. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-52 2.3.3 Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida

2.3.3.1 EVER Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-13a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-53 Figure C-13b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-54 Figure C-14. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-55 2.3.3.2 EVER Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-15a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-56 Figure C-15b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-57 Figure C-16. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-58 2.3.3.3 EVER for All Days

Figure C-17. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-59 Figure C-17. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-60 2.3.4 St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida

2.3.4.1 SAMA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-18a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-61 Figure C-18b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-62 Figure C-19. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-63 2.3.4.2 SAMA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-20a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-64 Figure C-20b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-65 Figure C-21. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-66 2.3.4.3 SAMA for All Days

Figure C-22. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-67 Figure C-22. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-68 2.3.5 Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia

2.3.5.1 COHU Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-23a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-69 Figure C-23b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-70 Figure C-24. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-71 2.3.5.2 COHU Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-25a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-72 Figure C-25b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-73 Figure C-26. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-74 2.3.5.3 COHU for All Days

Figure C-27. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-75 Figure C-27. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-76 2.3.6 Okefenokee Wildlife Re fuge (OKEF), Georgia

2.3.6.1 OKEF Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-28a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-77 Figure C-28b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-78 Figure C-29. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-79 2.3.6.2 OKEF Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-30a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-80 Figure C-30b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-81 Figure C-31. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-82 2.3.6.3 OKEF for All Days

Figure C-32. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation

### C-83 Figure C-32. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-84 2.3.7 Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky

2.3.7.1 MACA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-33a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-85 Figure C-33b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-86 Figure C-34. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-87 2.3.7.2 MACA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-35a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-88 Figure C-35b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-89 Figure C-36. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-90 2.3.7.3 MACA for All Days

Figure C-37. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-91 Figure C-37. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-92 2.3.8 Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina

2.3.8.1 LIGO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-38a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-93 Figure C-38b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-94 Figure C-39. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-95 2.3.8.2 LIGO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-40a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-96 Figure C-40b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-97 Figure C-41. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-98 2.3.8.3 LIGO for All Days

Figure C-42. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-99 Figure C-42. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-100 2.3.9 Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina

2.3.9.1 SHRO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-43a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-101 Figure C-43b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-102 Figure C-44. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for 

### SHRO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-103 2.3.9.2 SHRO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-45a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-104 Figure C-45b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-105 Figure C-46. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-106 2.3.9.3 SHRO for All Days

Figure C-47. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-107 Figure C-47. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-108 2.3.10 Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina

2.3.10.1 SWAN Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-48a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-109 Figure C-48b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-110 Figure C-49. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-111 2.3.10.2 SWAN Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-50a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-112 Figure C-50b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-113 Figure C-51. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-114 2.3.10.3 SWAN for All Days

Figure C-52. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-115 Figure C-52. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-116 2.3.11 Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina

2.3.11.1 ROMA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-53a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-117 Figure C-53b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-118 Figure C-54. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-119 2.3.11.2 ROMA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-55a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-120 Figure C-55b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-121 Figure C-56. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-122 2.3.11.3 ROMA for All Days

Figure C-57. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-123 Figure C-57. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-124 2.3.12 Great Smoky Mountains National Pa rk (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina

2.3.12.1 GRSM Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-58a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-125 Figure C-58b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-126 Figure C-59. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-127 2.3.12.2 GRSM Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-60a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-128 Figure C-60b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-129 Figure C-61. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-130 2.3.12.3 GRSM for All Days

Figure C-62. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-131 Figure C-62. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-132 2.3.13 James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia

2.3.13.1 JARI Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-63a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-133 Figure C-63b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-134 Figure C-64. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-135 2.3.13.2 JARI Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-65a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-136 Figure C-65b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-137 Figure C-66. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-138 2.3.13.3 JARI for All Days

Figure C-67. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-139 Figure C-67. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-140 2.3.14 Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia

2.3.14.1 SHEN Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-68a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-141 Figure C-68b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-142 Figure C-69. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-143 2.3.14.2 SHEN Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-70a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-144 Figure C-70b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-145 Figure C-71. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-146 2.3.14.3 SHEN for All Days

Figure C-72. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-147 Figure C-72. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-148 2.3.15 Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia

2.3.15.1 DOSO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-73a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-149 Figure C-73b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-150 Figure C-74. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-151 2.3.15.2 DOSO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-75a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-152 Figure C-75b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-153 Figure C-76. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-154 2.3.15.3 DOSO for All Days

Figure C-77. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-155 Figure C-77. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-156 2.3.16 Breton Island Wildlife Re fuge (BRET), Louisiana

2.3.16.1 BRET Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-78a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-157 Figure C-78b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-158 Figure C-79. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-159 2.3.16.2 BRET Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-80a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-160 Figure C-80b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).