United States General Accounting Office

GAO Report to the Chairman, Committee on

Science, House of Representatives

June 1995 NASA’s EARTH

OBSERVING SYSTEM

Estimated Funding

Requirements

GAO/NSIAD-95-175

GAO United States

General Accounting Office

Washington, D.C. 20548

National Security and

International Affairs Division

B-261656 

June 9, 1995

The Honorable Robert S. Walker

Chairman, Committee on Science

House of Representatives

Dear Mr. Chairman:

This report responds to your request that we estimate the total funding

requirements for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s

(NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS). We are responding to other parts of

your EOS request in separate reviews.

Background EOS is the centerpiece of NASA’s Mission to Planet Earth, whose overall goal

is to understand the total Earth system (air, water, land, life, and their

interactions) and the effects of natural and human-induced changes on the

global environment. EOS has three major components: a system of

satellites to collect 15 years of key climate-related data; the EOS Data and

Information System (EOSDIS) to operate the satellites and process, archive,

and distribute the data; and teams of scientists to develop algorithms for

converting sensor data into useful information and to conduct research

using the information.

According to NASA’s 1995 Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System

Reference Handbook, the baseline program will involve three series of

primary satellite missions and several smaller missions. There are also

some joint missions planned with other nations. To obtain 15-year data

sets, each of the primary missions will include a series of three satellites.

Most of the smaller missions and cooperative missions will also be

repeated three or more times, although some may fly only once. Additional

information about the EOS satellite missions is included in appendix I.

The EOS program, initiated in fiscal year 1991, will span 32 years. As

currently planned, the first satellite carrying EOS instruments will begin

operations in 1997 and the last satellite will cease operations in 2020.

Processing data and conducting research will continue for another 2 years,

through 2022. NASA has budgeted $2.6 billion through fiscal year 1995 for

EOS and requested about $1 billion for fiscal year 1996.

Page 1 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

Results in Brief We estimated that funding requirements for the EOS baseline program

would total about $33 billion for fiscal years 1991-2022. NASA is studying

ways to reduce future EOS funding requirements and expects to

substantially change the baseline program when these studies are

completed in July 1995. According to NASA officials, preliminary results of

these studies indicate that technology development and operational

improvements could reduce annual funding for the second and third

satellites in each series by as much as 30 percent. If NASA were able to

reduce annual funding by 30 percent in future years, our estimate of total

funding requirements drops to $27 billion. NASA officials believe that

further reductions may be possible from increased collaboration with

other agencies, international partners, and the commercial sector. It

remains to be seen whether NASA will be able to achieve the level of

reductions being discussed.

Life-Cycle Funding

Estimate for EOS

Baseline Program

Our life-cycle estimate of $33 billion represents the total funding

requirements for fiscal years 1991-2022 in current dollars; the figure

includes estimated inflation.1

 The total estimated funding requirements in

constant 1995 dollars, which does not include estimated future years’

inflation, is $21 billion. The estimate includes funding for satellites, launch

services, EOSDIS, science, construction of facilities, and civil service

personnel.

The EOS baseline assumes that the initial set of satellites will be repeated

with no substantial changes to the spacecraft or instruments. The satellite

segment accounts for about 35 percent of the total baseline funding;

launch services about 4 percent; EOSDIS about 27 percent; science and

algorithms about 31 percent; civil service personnel about 4 percent; and

other elements, such as construction of facilities, less than 1 percent.

Figure 1 shows our estimate of annual funding requirements for the EOS

baseline through fiscal year 2022. The annual funding estimate through

fiscal year 2000 is based on NASA’s projections in the President’s fiscal year

1996 budget. NASA’s budget projections are included in appendix II. Our

estimate includes adjustments to NASA’s budget estimates to reflect a

$100-million reduction resulting from NASA’s recently completed

agencywide review of operations and the addition of funding for civil

service personnel working on the program. After fiscal year 2000, the

figure reflects our estimate of annual funding requirements.

1

Unless otherwise noted, dollar amounts are in current dollars that include estimated future years’

inflation based on an index provided by NASA. NASA’s index reflects estimated price increases in the

aerospace industry rather than the general economy.

Page 2 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

Funding requirements rise sharply during the early years leading up to the

launch of the first satellite in 1998. The continued rise in funding through

2010 reflects the period where NASA will fund most of the production,

launch, and operation of the EOS satellites. After 2010, funding

requirements for science, EOSDIS, and civil service personnel will gradually

decline as individual satellite missions are completed.

Figure 1: Estimated Annual Funding

Requirements for the EOS Baseline

(Current dollars in millions)

NASA officials believe that funding estimates for the EOS program should

extend to 2019 rather than 2022. This is based on the fact that the last

15-year data set will be obtained by 2017, followed by another 2 years of

processing and research. We have presented estimated funding

requirements through 2022 because EOS satellites will continue to operate

and collect data through 2020, EOSDIS will continue to process the data

beyond that, and the scientific research begun under EOS will continue for

another 2 years.

Page 3 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

NASA Actions to

Reduce Future

Funding

NASA officials know that, in today’s environment of declining budgets for

the civil space program, the baseline program described in the 1995 EOS

handbook is unaffordable. Recognizing that EOS’ objective is to collect

consistent long-term data sets—not to fly a particular satellite or

instrument for 15 years—NASA is studying ways to change the baseline

program and reduce future funding requirements. According to NASA

officials, preliminary results of these studies indicate that technology

development and operational improvements could reduce annual funding

for the second and third satellite missions by as much as 30 percent. If

NASA were able to reduce annual funding by 30 percent in future years, our

estimate of total funding drops to $27 billion. NASA officials believe that

further reductions may be possible from collaboration with other

agencies, international partners, and the commercial sector. Several

factors could affect NASA’s ability to achieve future reductions.

Technology Advancements

and Operational

Improvements

Technology advancements are almost certain to occur over the 32-year life

of the EOS program, but it is too early to determine the effect these

advancements will have on reducing funding requirements. A NASA

Advisory Council task force reported in February 1995 that EOS should be

an ideal candidate for advanced technology development.2

 However, the

task force found little evidence that advanced technology was being

developed for and incorporated into the program. The report also noted

that NASA lacked a plan or road map for incorporating new technology into

EOS.

NASA officials expect to complete a technology plan by the end of

August 1995. To develop this plan, NASA is studying several technology

development opportunities, including reductions in the size of spacecraft

and instruments, major advancements in high performance computing,

new launch systems, and more efficient operations. For example, some

instruments benefit from making measurements under exactly the same

conditions. Currently, these kinds of simultaneous measurements require

the instruments to be collocated on one satellite. Advanced technology

and operating techniques may allow these types of instruments to fly in

close formation on individual small satellites, potentially reducing funding

requirements and greatly increasing the flexibility to replace individual

instruments. NASA officials stressed that they need stable funding between

now and fiscal year 2000 to develop and demonstrate the technology that

will reduce future funding requirements. NASA is also soliciting advice from

2

NASA Federal Laboratory Review, prepared by the NASA Federal Laboratory Review Task Force,

NASA Advisory Council (Feb. 1995).

Page 4 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

outside groups and industry on technology that could be used in the EOS

program.

Increased Cooperative

Arrangements

Collaborating with other agencies that operate Earth observing satellites

may be possible, but it is too early to tell how much this might reduce EOS

funding requirements. For example, NASA currently plans to fly an EOS

instrument on a 3-year Japanese satellite mission to collect ocean surface

wind data. It has not been determined how follow-on missions will be

accomplished and who will be responsible for funding them. To continue

this data set, NASA is exploring options with two other agencies interested

in this type of data, the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Department of Defense. NASA

and NOAA are also reviewing the potential benefits of collocating research

and operations activities, incorporating EOS technology into NOAA weather

satellites, and combining NASA and NOAA data systems.

EOS already involves extensive international participation, and it is unclear

whether significant savings can be achieved through additional

participation. NASA is negotiating 10 cooperative agreements with 

6 different international partners, including the European Space Agency,

Japan, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Russia. Only two of the

agreements have been completed. None cover the 15-year period required

by EOS for long-term consistent data sets. For example, NASA plans to fly its

Stratospheric Aerosols and Gases Experiment instrument on a Russian

Meteor satellite to accomplish what was formerly known as the

AEROSOLS mission. However, the agreement signed by the United States

and Russia only covers the flight of one EOS instrument on one Meteor,

which has a mission life of 3 years. NASA officials believe that the Russians

will agree to continue flying copies of the instrument long enough to

provide the required 15-year data set.

Finalizing and maintaining the current international partnerships involving

EOS spacecraft and instruments represents a challenge. The Multifrequency

Imaging Microwave Radiometer instrument demonstrates both the

promise and pitfalls of international cooperation. The European Space

Agency is developing this instrument for one of its spacecraft scheduled to

fly as part of an international EOS mission. Since the inception of EOS, NASA

has counted on the European Space Agency to provide a copy of this

instrument for one of NASA’s primary satellite missions. However, the

Europeans recently indicated that they may not provide the instrument for

flight on NASA’s satellite. Since this instrument is essential for the NASA

Page 5 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

mission, the agency is exploring other options. NASA has begun discussions

with Japan about providing a copy of a similar type of instrument it

developed for one of its satellites. In the event that there is not an

international contribution for this type of instrument, NASA may have to

provide the funding.

Several factors could affect NASA’s ability to achieve significant reductions.

First, some instruments have not yet been assigned to a spacecraft and are

considered “flights of opportunity.” NASA’s baseline program assumes that

NASA will only fund the instruments for these missions and that other

requirements will be provided through cooperative arrangements.

However, if NASA is unable to find a partner to contribute the spacecraft

and launch for the missions, NASA may have to fund these items or cancel

the missions. Second, if the introduction of new technology or increased

cooperative arrangements is delayed from the second set of satellites to

the third set, the cumulative reductions would be much smaller. Third,

most NASA spaceflight missions have historically experienced significant

increases in funding requirements from initial estimates.3

 Even if

reductions are achieved through technology advancements, funding

increases in other areas could offset these savings.

Scope and

Methodology

To develop an estimate of total life-cycle funding requirements for the

baseline EOS program, we used NASA’s estimates for the program’s initial

phase and met with Mission to Planet Earth officials to develop the

assumptions used to prepare detailed estimates of each program element

through completion. For example, based on discussions with these

officials, we assumed that copies of spacecraft and instruments required

less funding than the originals that included research and development

costs. We included funding for science, EOSDIS, and civil service personnel

through 2022, 2 years beyond the end of the last satellite mission, which is

a typical practice for science missions, according to NASA.

In our current dollar estimates, we used inflation factors supplied by NASA

that represent estimated inflation in the aerospace industry, which tends

to run higher than estimated inflation for the general economy. NASA uses

this index for programs that are in the early stages and include significant

new development efforts and uncertainties. NASA officials agreed that this

is the appropriate index to use for the EOS program. For most years

covered by our estimate, NASA’s inflation index was 4.6 percent. By

3

NASA Program Costs: Space Missions Require Substantially More Funding Than Initially Estimated

(GAO/NSIAD-93-97, Dec. 31, 1992).

Page 6 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
B-261656 

comparison, the gross domestic product price index averaged 3.1 percent

for 1996 through 2013. Funding for civil service personnel was inflated by

a factor of 2.1 percent, based on civilian federal pay raises projected in the

President’s fiscal year 1996 budget request.

We conducted our work from January 1995 to June 1995 in accordance

with generally accepted government auditing standards. We did not obtain

official agency comments on this report. However, we discussed a draft of

this report with program officials and incorporated their comments where

appropriate.

As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents

earlier, we plan no further distribution of this report until 10 days from its

issue date. At that time, we will send copies to the Ranking Minority

Member, Committee on Science; the NASA Administrator; and other

appropriate congressional committees. We will also make copies available

to other interested parties upon request.

Please contact me on (202) 512-8412 if you or your staff have any

questions concerning this report. Major contributors to this report were

Frank Degnan, Richard Eiserman, and Sandra Gove.

Sincerely yours,

David R. Warren

Director, Defense Management

 and NASA Issues

Page 7 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix I 

EOS Satellite Missions

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA)

1995 Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System Reference

Handbook, the baseline program will involve three series of primary

satellite missions and several smaller missions. There are also some joint

missions planned with other nations. Under the baseline plan, as many as

36 spacecraft would carry 80 instruments, and NASA would provide 21 of

the spacecraft and 65 of the instruments.

To obtain 15-year data sets, each of the primary missions will include a

series of three satellites. Most of the smaller missions and cooperative

missions will also be repeated three or more times, although some may

only fly once. Figure I.1 shows the satellite missions planned under the

Earth Observing System (EOS) baseline. Table I.1 describes each mission.

Descriptions of the instruments carried by each satellite mission are in

table I.2.

The primary missions have been designated AM, PM, and CHEM. Eight of

the primary satellites are planned to be medium-sized spacecraft, with the

ninth being somewhat larger. The primary satellites will each carry three

to six instruments. Smaller satellites will carry from one to three

instruments. The instruments are, for the most part, the same for all the

satellites in a series.

Several missions involve cooperative arrangements with other countries.

In these missions, other nations provide instruments for NASA satellites or

satellites for NASA instruments. NASA’s cooperative missions currently

involve the European Space Agency, Canada, Japan, France, the United

Kingdom, and Russia. International partners are involved in the AM, PM,

CHEM, RadarALT, TRMM, METEOR, and ADEOS missions shown in

figure I.1.

Page 8 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix I 

EOS Satellite Missions

Figure I.1: Operational Periods for Planned EOS Satellites

 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LANDSAT-7

COLOR

SOLSTICE

CERES

Scatterometer follow-on

TRMM

AM-1 AM-2 AM-3

PM-1 PM-2 PM-3

CHEM-1 CHEM-2 CHEM-3

RadarALT-1 RadarALT-2 RadarALT-3

ADEOS II

METEOR

Satellite specified in MTPE/EOS handbook

Satellite to be determined

Calendar year

SAGE-III follow-on

ACRIMSATS

SAGE III on International Space Station 

LaserALT-1 LaserALT-2 LaserALT-3

Page 9 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix I 

EOS Satellite Missions

Table I.1: Description of EOS Satellite Missions

Satellite Description

LANDSAT-7

ETM+

Continues land-imaging satellite series. Future LANDSAT-type instrument is planned to be carried

on AM-2 and AM-3.

AM

ASTER

CERES

EOSP

LATI

MISR

MODIS

MOPITT

Morning equator-crossing mission will study clouds, aerosols, and radiation balance; the terrestrial

ecosystem; land use; soils; terrestrial energy/moisture; tropospheric chemical composition;

volcanoes; and ocean productivity. ASTER and MOPITT are manifested on AM-1 only. EOSP and

LATI are manifested for AM-2 and AM-3 only.

PM

AIRS

AMSU

CERES

MHS

MIMR/AMSR

MODIS

Afternoon equator-crossing mission will study cloud formation, precipitation, and radiative

properties; air-sea fluxes of energy and moisture; sea-ice extent; and ocean primary productivity.

The PM series will carry instruments that are prototypes for future operational weather satellites.

CHEM

HIRDLS

MLS

ODUS

TES

Chemistry mission will study atmospheric chemical composition; chemistry-climate interactions; and

air-sea exchange of chemicals and energy.

LaserALT

GLAS

Laser altimeter mission will study ice sheet mass balance.

RadarALT

DORIS

SSALT

TMR

Radar altimeter mission will study ocean circulation. NASA is considering a joint mission with France.

ISS and METEOR

SAGE-III

SAGE-III instrument carried on the International Space Station and Russian METEOR satellite will

study distribution of aerosols, ozone profiles, and greenhouse gases in the lower stratosphere.

TRMM

CERES

LIS

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will study precipitation and Earth radiation budget in the tropics

and high latitudes. TRMM is a joint mission with Japan.

ADEOS-II

SEAWINDS

Japanese satellite carrying NASA scatterometer instrument will study ocean surface wind vectors.

ACRIMSAT

ACRIM

Mission will monitor the variability of total solar irradiance and is currently planned to fly on a series

of small satellites.

Flight of opportunity

COLOR

Ocean color instrument will study ocean primary productivity and will work in concert with AM series

until PM series is launched.

Flight of opportunity

SOLSTICE

Mission will study full-disk solar ultraviolet irradiance.

Page 10 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix I 

EOS Satellite Missions

Table I.2: EOS Instruments and Measurements

ACRIM Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor monitors the variability of total solar

irradiance.

AIRS Atmospheric Infrared Sounder measures atmospheric temperature and humidity.

AMSU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit provides atmospheric temperature measurements.

ASTER

(Japan)

Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer provides high

spacial resolution images of the land surface, water, ice, and clouds.

CERES Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System measures Earth’s radiation budget and

atmospheric radiation.

DORIS

(France)

Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite provides orbital

positioning information and ionospheric correction for SSALT.

COLOR Ocean color instrument provides measurements of the role of oceans in the global

carbon cycle and ocean primary productivity.

EOSP Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter globally maps radiance and linear polarization of

reflected and scattered sunlight to obtain atmospheric aerosol content.

ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus provides high spatial resolution images of the land

surface, water, ice, and clouds.

GLAS Geoscience Laser Altimeter System measures ice sheet topography, cloud heights, and

aerosol vertical structure.

HIRDLS

(UK-US)

High-Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder observes gases and aerosols in troposphere,

stratosphere, and mesosphere to assess their role in global climate system.

LATI Landsat Advanced Technology Instrument provides high spacial resolution images of

the land surface, water, ice, and clouds beyond Landsat ETM+.

LIS Lightning Imaging Sensor measures the distribution and variability of lightning.

MHS Microwave Humidity Sounder provides atmospheric water vapor profile.

MIMR

(ESA)

Multifrequency Imaging Microwave Radiometer measures precipitation rate, cloud water,

water vapor, sea surface roughness, sea surface temperature, ice, snow, and soil

moisture.

MISR Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer measures the top-of-the-atmosphere, cloud, and

surface angular reflectance.

MLS Microwave Limb Sounder measures thermal emissions from the atmospheric limb.

MODIS Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer studies biological and physical properties of

terrestrial, oceanic, atmosphere, and ecosystems.

MOPITT

(Canada)

Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere measures upswelling radiance to produce

tropospheric CO profiles and total column CH4.

ODUS

(Japan)

Ozone Dynamic Ultraviolet Sounder measures total atmospheric column of ozone

concentraion.

SAGE III Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment provides profiles of aerosols, ozone, and

trace gases in the mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere.

SEAWINDS Provides all weather measurements of ocean surface wind speed and direction.

SOLSTICE Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Instrument measures full disk solar ultraviolet

irradiance.

(continued)

Page 11 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix I 

EOS Satellite Missions

SSALT

(France)

Solid-State Altimeter maps the topography of the sea surface and its impact on ocean

circulation.

TES Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer provides profiles of all infrared active species from

Earth’s surface to lower stratosphere.

TMR Topex Microwave Radiometer provides atmospheric water vapor corrections for SSALT.

Page 12 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
Appendix II 

Additional Funding Information

NASA’s current EOS estimate for fiscal years 1991 through 2000 is

$8.2 billion. This estimate, which is about $100 million less than NASA’s

estimate in the President’s fiscal year 1996 budget, reflects reductions

recently identified during NASA’s agencywide review. About $2.6 billion was

budgeted through fiscal year 1995. EOS represents about two-thirds of

Mission to Planet Earth’s $12.1-billion budget for fiscal years 1991-2000.

NASA’s EOS estimate includes funding for satellites, science, the EOS Data

and Information System (EOSDIS), launch services, and construction of

facilities, as shown in table II.1. NASA does not include funding for civil

service personnel in its estimate.

Table II.1: President’s Fiscal Year 1996 Budget Request for EOS

Current dollars in millions

Prior 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total

AM series $385.1 $198.8 $260.8 $202.2 $97.0 $107.6 $56.7 $82.6 $1,390.8

PM series 64.3 50.1 88.8 127.3 188.2 239.8 235.7 226.1 1,220.3

Chemistry series 9.6 2.2 10.3 27.7 82.1 107.4 147.5 182.0 568.8

Special spacecraft 40.0 20.9 85.5 69.7 92.9 95.8 89.1 93.0 586.9

Landsat 7 32.5 74.1 87.4 78.8 56.1 48.8 8.0 1.6 387.3

Algorithm 

development 91.8 46.8 58.3 85.4 122.7 154.5 200.8 221.7 982.0

EOSDIS 244.4 188.2 230.6 289.8 309.8 291.9 317.4 358.7 2,230.8

Space station 

platform 104.0 104.0

EOS science 37.3 58.4 47.5 56.4 63.4 73.2 336.2

Launch services 3.1 16.2 41.7 86.7 95.3 100.9 46.8 33.2 423.9

Construction of 

 facilities 45.2 18.0 17.0 17.0 97.2

Tracking and data

 support 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.3 8.4

Total $1,020.0 $615.3 $917.7 $1,044.6 $1,093.7 $1,205.4 $1,166.5 $1,273.4 $8,336.6

(709121) Page 13 GAO/NSIAD-95-175 EOS Funding
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