### State of California 

### AIR RESOURCES BOARD



### STAFF REPORT

ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND VENTURA COUNTY 8-HOUR OZONEATTAINMENT PLANS

Date of Release: Scheduled for Consideration: June 13,2008 June 26,2008

This report has been reviewed by the staff of the California Air Resources Board and approved for publication. Approval does notsignify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Air Resources Board, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recornmendationfor use.

= C.a*io thb+mUmw*hs .inw 

# == AIR 

### RESOURCESBOARD[This page intentionally left blank.]

### TABLE OF CONTENTS

... 

### EXECUI-IVE SUMMARY

..........................................................................111 

### INTRODUCTION

............................................................................................. 

### I WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OZONE NONATTAINMENTAREA

................ 8 

### VENPURA COUNTY OZONE NONATTAINMENTAREA



### ............................. 20

### [This page intentionally left blank.]

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Air Resources Board (ARB) staff is proposing Board approval of the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County 8-hour ozone attainment plans. These plans are proposed revisionsto California's State Implementation Plan (SIP) for ozone. The Western Mojave Desert, which consists of the AntelopeValley portion of Los Angeles County and the southeastern portionof San Bernardino County, and Ventura County are currently designated by U.S. EPA as nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard with moderate classification. Under the federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (theAct), moderate ozone nonattainment areas have a nominal attainment date of June 15, 2010.
The Western Mojave Desert and Ventura planning areas are downwind of the South Coast Air Basin (South Coast). The Western Mojave Desert is also downwind of the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (San JoaquinValley), though to a lesser extent. Prior ARB transport assessments indicate that ozone transport froni these upwind areas contributes to highozone levels inthe downwind areas during the summer ozone season. Photochemicalozone modeling conducted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) indicates that emissions generated by sources within the Western Mojave Desert are not sufficient to cause ozone violations, indicatingthat South Coast emissions levels must decrease before the Western Mojave Desert area can attain the 8-hour nationalambient air quality standards (NAAQS). Modeling indicates that err~ission reductions in the South Coast are also needed to ensure attainment in Ventura County. Due to this ozone transport, the Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District (AVAQMD) and Mojave DesertAir Quality Management District (MDAQNID) have each requested a reclassification to severe-17 for their respective portions of the Western Mojave Desert Ozone NonattainmentArea, which would result in an attainment date of 2021for this region. The Ventura County Air Pollution Control District (VCAPCD) has requested that U.S. EPA reclassify Ventura County as a serious nonattainment area, which would result in a 2013 attainment date. This staff report summarizes the ozone attainment plansfor both the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County. The report contains discussions of air quality modeling and weight of evidence analyses supporting the reclassification request and the attainment demonstration, as well as the control strategy, conformity budget, reasonable further progress demonstration, and other plan elements.

### [This page intentionally left blank.]

### I. INTRODUCTION
A. 

### Overview
Air pollution levels in the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County exceed the nationalambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for ozone of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), averaged over an 8-hour period. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has designated both the Western Mojave Desert,which consists of the Antelope Valley portionof Los Angeles County and the southeastern portion of San Bernardino County, and Ventura County as nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard with moderate classification. Under the federal CleanAir Act Amendments of 1990 (the Act), moderate ozone nonattainment areas have a June 15.2010 attainment date. The AntelopeValley Air Quality Management District (AVAQMD) and Mojave DesertAir Quality Management District (MDAQMD) have each requested a reclassificationto severe-17 for their respective portions of the Western Mojave Desert Ozone Nonattainment Area, which would result in an attainment date of 2021for this region. The Ventura County Air Pollution Control District (VCAPCD) has requested that U.S. EPA reclassify Ventura County as a serious nonattainment area, which would result in a 2013 attainmentdate. Each of these districts has adopted a plan demonstrating attainment by the new attainment deadlines. Each plan includes air quality modeling and weight of evidence (WOE) analyses supporting the reclassification requestand the attainment demonstration,as well as the control strategy, conformity budget, reasonable further progress (RFP) demonstration, and other plan elements required by the Act. Each district made its draft attainment demonstration plans available for a 30-day public review period prior to local adoption. State law specifies that the Air Resources Board (ARB or Board) must adopt the nonattainment area plans approved by a local district, unless ARB finds, after a public hearing, ,thatthe locally adopted plans will not meet the requirements of the Act. ARB staff has reviewed the 8-hour ozone attainment plans prepared by each of these I~cal districts, and recommends that the Board adopt these plans as proposed revisions to California'sState Implementation Plan (SIP) for ozone. B. Air Quality Planning Background 

### The Act establishes planning requirements for areas that routinely exceed the health-based NAAQS.These nonattainment areas must develop and enact SIPS that demonstrate how they will attain the standards by specified dates. Federal law holds each state responsible for implementing the provisions of the Act.

### State law' designates the ARB as the State's air pollution control agency for all purposes set forth in federal law, includingthe preparationof the SIP. State law further specifies that the ARB must adopt the nonattainmentarea plan approved by a local air district, unlessthe ARB ,finds,after a public hearing, that the locally adopted plan will not meet the requirementsof the ~ct.~ California SIP revisions must be submitted to U.S. EPA by ARB. The rules and commitments in a U.S. EPA-approvedSIP are federally enforceable. The Act also allows interested parties to sue U.S. EPA, the State, or local agencies to compel implementationof an approved SIP and other provisions of the Act. 

### C. 8-Hour Ozone Planning Requirements Attainment 

### demon strati or^ plans must include the following:

a current, comprehensive, and accurate emissions inventory; air quality modeling demonstratingattainment of the NAAQS; con,trolstrategies capable of meeting attainment, and contingency measures inthe event the controls fall short of achieving needed reductions; RFP plans; demonstration that all reasonably available controltechnology (RACT) or reasonably available control measures (RACM) have been appliedto existing sources; and transportation conformity budgets. Area Classifications The Act provides for ozone nonattainment areas to be classified accordingto pollution levels recorded in each area. Areas with lower classifications havethe least amount of time to meet the standard. Areas with higher classifications are given more time to meet the standard and must adopt more stringent requirements for major new sources and modifications. Usingozone levels recorded from 2001 through 2004, U.S. EPA classified both the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County as moderate nonattainment areasfor the 8-hour ozone standard. The text box shows classifications and nominal attainmentyears for the 8-hour ozone standard. The specific attainment datefor the 8-hour ozone NAAQS is June 1 5 

### of the attainment year. Because the ozone attainment deadlines are mid-year, guidance 

# I Area Classifications reflect 

## )i 

# I severity of local pollution 

# 1;

levels and establishthe area's attainment deadline. 8-hour 

### ( ozone standard deadlinesfor 

# 1:; 

# I each classification are shown 

# 1

Marginal Moderate



### I Extreme 

### 1 2024 

### I



### ' California Health and Safety Code (HSC) Section 39602

HSC Section 41650(a).calls for the analysis of attainment to be done for the year priorto the actual attainmentyear. Therefore, emissions and emission reduction targets must be achieved by the year prior to the actual attainment year. Inthe case of a nominal attainment deadline of 2010, emission reductiontargets must be met in 2009 to demonstrate 2010 attainment. 

### Reclassification
The Act allows states to request the reclassification of any ozone nonattainment area to a higher classification,and requires the Administrator to grant such requests.' The AVAQMD and MDAQMD have requested a reclassificationof the Western Mojave Desert from moderate to severe-17, while the VCAPCD has requested a reclassificationfrom moderate to serious. ARB Executive Officer James Goldstene submitted these requests to U.S. EPA on February 14, 2008. U.S. EPA approved the Ventura County request effective June 19,2008, characterizing its decision to ap rove voluntary reclassificationrequests as nondiscretionary under theAct.P In itsVentura County reclassification notice, U.S. EPA indicatedthat reclassification requests for other Californiaareas were pending consultationwith Indian tribes in the affected areas. 

### D. Emission Inventories
An emissions inventory is a criticaltool used to evaluate, control, and mitigateair pollution. At its core, an emissions inventory is a systematic listingof the sources of air pollutants alongwith the amount of pollutants emitted from each source or category over a giventime period. The planning emissions inventory is divided into four major categories: point, area-wide, on-road mobile and other mobile sources. The summer season inventory is usedfor ozone planning because it reflects the activity levels and conditions presentwhen higher ozone levels occur in the Southern California region. California's 2007-2008 SIP updates use a 2002 baseline inventory;the inventory was calibratedto 2002 emissions and activity levels, and inventories for other years are back-cast or forecast from that base inventory. The inventories reflect rules adopted through December 31, 2006. On-road motor vehicle emissions were generated using ARB's mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2007. Off-road mobilesource emissions were generated using ARB's OFFROAD model. Both models were developed for use in the 2007-2008 SIP revisions,and represent significant improvements over models used in prior SIP updates. On-road motor vehicle activity data reflect projections provided by SCAG in February and March, 2008.



## ' Clean Air Act, Section 181(b)(3)

Federal Register Volume 73 No. 98, May 20,2008, page 29074.E. A ir Qualitv Modeling 

### The Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County ozone nonattainmentareas are small parts of the greater Southern California region. The photochemical model in these plans covers the entire Southern California region and a portion of northern Mexico. The modeling effort has been performedas a joint project by all of the air districts in the region and ARB, with SCAQMD staff and resources providing most of the modeling and ARB staff providing WOE supplementary reviews. The modeled attainment demonstration in this planwas prepared using photochemical dispersion and meteorological modeling tools developed in responseto U.S. EPA modeling guidelines, and recommendations from air quality modeling experts. The model predictsfut~.~re ambient ozone concentrations under historical conditions that led to high ambient ozone concentrations. These conditions are typically multi-day episodes in which the State and national ozone standards were exceeded. The meteorological fields were generated using the MM5 prognostic meteorological model, and district staff developed the required emissions inventories. The ozone air quality modeling utilized the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) model, with initial and boundary conditions based on estimates of clean-air concentrations. Analysis of the model outputs included the estimation of I-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrationsfor each ozone monitoring site within the domain, as well as statistical measures comparing observed and simulated ozone concentrations. These analyses were used to evaluate model performanceby sub-region within the domain. The modeling domain is based on the domain defined for the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS) and includes the South Coast Air Basin and the surrounding coastal, desert, and mountain areas. The northern boundary of the model extends into Santa Barbara and Kern counties, while the southern boundary extends into Mexico. The eastern boundary of the modeling extends to the California-Nevada border,while the western boundary extends into the Pacific Ocean. The domain horizontal grid is 116 by 80 cells, with a resolution of five kilometers. This large domain allows an evaluation of the impact of emissions generated in the region's urban core on surrounding areas such as the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County. The emissions inventory usedfor photochemicalmodeling is consistent with the emissions inventories presented in the locally adopted attainment demonstration plans and summarized in this report. The photochemical modelingwas conducted by staff of the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), using the models and methodologies described in Appendix V of the SCAQMD's2007 Air Quality Management Plan(AQMP). Further informationabout the photochemicalmodeling approach is available from the SCAQMD, at: http://www.aqmd.gov/ac1mp/07aqmp/aqmp/AppendixV.pdf.
1. Modeled Attainment Projection Futureyears are simulated twice: ,first,using the uncontrolled emissions inventory; and second, using a reduced err~issions inventorycontrolled by the proposedozone control strategy. Comparingthe uncontrolled and controlled ambient ozone concentrations identifiesthe effectiveness of the proposed ozone control strategy. The modelingdemonstrates attainment if using an emissions inventory that reflects the proposed control strategy results in projected design values, in the attainment year, that achieve the ozone NAAQS. As required by U.S. EPA guidance, a relative reductionfactor (RRF) approach was used in projecting future designvalues. The RRF reflects the ratio between the future year model prediction (in this case the end of 2012 for Ventura, and 2020 for the Western Mojave Desert) and the referenceyear model prediction (in this case 2005). A referenceyear design value is then multiplied by the RRFto project a future year design value. The modeling conducted by the SCAQMDfor use in the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura SIP submittals satisfies the modeled attainment test. 2. Weight of Evidence Dueto the uncertaintiesinherent in photochemical air quality modeling, U.S. EPA guidance provides for the use of analyses,such as air quality and emissions trends analyses, to supplement air quality modeling results. Under U.S. EPA's guidelinesfor the use of WOE in ozone attainment demonstrations, a WOE analysis may be used to support a determinationthat attainment will be achieved, despite the results of the modeled attainment test, when ,the model predicts a future design value of 82-87 parts per billion (ppb) at one or more sites or grid cells.'
F. State Control Strategy
ARB is responsiblefor controlling emissionsfrom mobile sources, consumer products,and fuels. ARB'Songoing mobile source control program will provide significant NOx and ROG emission reductions in the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County. Underthe existing control program (rules adopted in October 2006 and earlier), vehicles and equipment operating in California are subject to the most stringent tailpipe emission standards in the world. Existingon-road vehicle emission controls will decrease ROG and NOx by approximately 36 

## ' Ibid, U.S. EPA (2007).percent in Ventura County by 2012, and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020 in the Western Mojave Desert.
In September, 2007, ARB adopted a comprehensive combination of technologically-feasible, cost-effective, and far-reaching measuresfor motor vehicles and other statewide sources as part of the SIP for meeting the 8-hour . ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) NAAQS. Table 1.1 lists the measures in the 2007 State Strategy, with expected adoption and implementation timeframes.
Table 1.1 

# - State Strategy Control Measures

BAR = Bureauof Automotive Repair DPR = Departmentof Pesticide Regulation TBD = to be determined r Proposed New SIP Measures

Passenger Vehicles Smog Check Improvements Expanded Vehicle Retirement
Modificationsto Reformulated Gasoline Program Trucks Cleaner In-Use Heavy-DutyTrucks Goods Movement Sources
Auxiliary Ship Engine Cold Ironing& Clean Technology Implementing Agency

BAR ARBlBAR
ARB

ARB

EPNARBI

Local

EPNARBI
PortTruck Modernization ARBlLocal 2007-2008 Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives EPNARB 2007-2008 Starting in 2012

Off-Road Equipment Expected Action

2007-2008 2008-2014
2007

2008

2007-2008

Fuel:2007 I

Cleaner In-UseAgricultural Equipment Other Off-Road Sources New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats Expected Implementation

By 2010 2008-2014

Phase-In Starting2010 

# 1

2010-201 5

Phase-In Starting 2010 2007-201 0 1

Phase-In

ARB

ARB Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards EnhancedVapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks 2009-2010

2009-2010

Additional Evaporative Emission Standards Area-wide Sources TBD

201 2-2013

2007-2008 I
DPR Pesticide Regulation DPR 2008 2008 ARB By 2010 2010-2012The 2007 State Strategy includes 2014, 2020, and 2023 emission reductions commitmentsfor the South Coast Air Basin, and 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023 emission reductionsfor the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. In addition to directly reducing emissions in these upwind areas, these commitments will indirectly improve air quality in downwind areas including the Western Mojave Desert and Ventura County. G. Transport ARB transport assessments and air quality modeling conducted by the SCAQMD concur that emissions from the South Coast Air Basin and the San Joaquin Valley contribute to ozone exceedances in the Western Mojave Desert and, to a lesser extent, in Ventura County. The South Coast and San Joaquin Valley populations and emissions dwarf those in the downwind Ventura County and Western Mojave Desert ozone nonattainmentareas, as shown below. Table 1.2

# - 2006 Population and Emissions Data (tpd, summer planning inventory)

The significance of pollution transport in each area is discussed in more detail later in this report. SIP revisionsfor the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley commit to significant decreases in ROG and NOx emission in these upwind areas by 2014.

Nonattainment Area South Coast San Joaquin Valley Western Mojave Desert Ventura County



### H. Environmental Impacts
The California EnvironmentalQuality Act (CEQA) requiresthat State and Jocal agency projects be assessedfor potential significant environmental impacts. Air quality plans are "projects" that are potentially subject to CEQA requirements. Both the AVAQMD and the MDAQMD have determined that the air quality plans are exempt from CEQA review and have prepared a Notice of Exemption for both plans. The VCAPCD's Negative Declarationwas adopted in co~junction with the District Board's adoption of the 8-Hour Ozone Plan on March 13, 2008. I. Legal Authority NOx 972 650 172 68 Population 16,143,000 3,719,000

769,000 826,000

The Act requires states to providefor the attainment of NAAQS. The primary tool to be used in the effort to attain NAAQS is a plan that any state with one or more ROG 781 450 7 1 55nonattainment areas must develop, which providesfor implementation, maintenance and enforcement of the standards in the SIP (Section 11 O(a)(l)). State law charges the ARB with coordinating State, regional,and local efforts to attain and maintain both State and national standards. The direct statutory link betweenARB and the mandates of the Act is fo1.1nd in Section 39602 of the Health and Safety Code (HSC). This provision states:
"The state board is designated the air pollution control agency for all purposes set forth in federal law. The state board isdesignated as the state agency responsiblefor the preparation of the state implementation plan required by the CleanAir Act (42 U.S.C., Sec. 7401, et seq.) and, to this end, shall coordinatethe activities of all districts necessary to comply with that act." State law also limitswhat the ARB may submit as a SIP revision. HSC Section 39602 goes on to state, "Notwithstandingany other provision of this division, the state implementation plan shall only include those provisions necessaryto meet the requirementsof the Clean Air Act." The CaliforniaCleanAir Act (CCAA) requires districts to assess the progress the County has made toward meeting State ambient air quality standards during the previous threeyears. Ventura County incorporatedthe triennial assessment in the federal 8-hour ozone plan since the control measures implementedto attain the federal 8-hour standard will also help attain State air quality standards. ARB will exclude any provisions of the Ventura County and Western Mojave Desert plans that relate solely to the CCAA requirements from the SIP submittal.



### II. WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OZONE NONATTAINMENTAREA

A. Introduction The 

### U.S. EPA combined portionsof Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties into the Western Mojave Desert (WMD) 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. The WMD includesthe northeastern portion of Los Angeles County and the southwestern portion of San Bernardino County, both of which are in the Mojave DesertAir Basin (Figure 11.1). The AVAQMD hasjurisdiction over the Los Angeles County portion of the WMD, while the MDAQMD has jurisdiction over the San Bernardino County portionof the WMD. The U.S. EPA has classifiedthe Western Mojave Desert 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area as a moderate nonattainment area with an attainment date of June 2010. The Antelope Valley and Mojave DesertAQMDs have adopted separate attainment demonstration plans as described in this staff report. To meet federal

### requirements, the two areas adopted identical conformity budgets and RFP plans covering the entireWMD nonattainmentarea. 1. 

### Mojave DesertAir Quality Management District 

### i. Profileof Mojave Desert The MDAQMD portion of theWestern Mojave Desert nonattainmentarea includes the following San Bernardino County communities: Phelan, Hesperia, Adelanto, Victorville, Apple Valley, Barstow,Joshua Tree, Yucca Valley and Twentynine Palms. This area covers more than 20,000 square miles and is home to over 450,000 people. The area is characterized by hot, dry summers and cool winters, with little precipitation. This area also includes portions of the National Training Center at Fort Irwin,the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center, Edwards Air Force Base,the Mojave National Preserve and Joshua Tree National Park. The primary roadways in the MDAQMD are lnterstate 15, lnterstate40 and lnterstate 395. All of these highways carry a significant amount of transiting heavy-dutytruck traffic, and lnterstate 15 carries a substantial amount of commute traffic into the greater Los Angeles Basin. The district includes railroad ,trackcorlnectingthe Ports of LosAngeles and Long Beachwith the rest of the Figure 11.1 -Western Moiave Desert Ozone NonattainmentArea and Surroundinq Reqion

,110juveDesert

Western 

### Mojave Desert

. -..--....- .6.

........ LC-.- -- ..i-, I:-- -

.... i...

, N EGO o MPERm

# couNiContinental United States, as well as high-pressure natural gas transmission pipelines that deliver most of the natural gas consumed in California. The MDAQMD is a growing bedroom community, but does have significant mining and military activity. ii. HistoricalAir Quality The MDAQMD has experienced a substantial reduction in maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations,as displayed in Figure 11.2 (Trona is not within the nonattainment area but is shown for comparison). The stations closest to the South CoastAir Basin

### - Phelen, Hesperia, and Victorville 

### - have historically recorded the highest historical ozone concentrations. Fiqure 11.2

# - MDAQMD 8-Hour Ozone Design Value Trend

2. Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District i. Profile of Antelope Valley I Phelan I 1 \. Trona J +Twentynine Palms

### / 1 ~V~ctowille

The Antelope Valley is the desert portion of Los Angeles County. The AVAQMD has been designated nonattainmentfor the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by U.S. EPA as a portion of the Western Mojave Desert nonattainment area. The AVAQMDportion of the WMD covers 1,300 square miles. Most of the Antelope Valley's more than 400,000 residents live in or near the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale. The region is characterized by a wide, arid valley with little precipitation. Air Force Plant 42 and a portion of Edwards Air Force Base are located within the AVAQMD. The primary roadways in the Antelope Valley are State Route 14 and State Route 18. Bothof these arterials carry substantial daily commute traffic from the regionto the South Coast Air Basin. Although the Antelope Valley is largely a bedroom community, aerospace development and manufacturing facilities also have a significant local presence. ii. Historical Air Quality The Antelope Valley has experienced some improvement in 8-hour average ozone, as displayed in Figure 11.3. -The "design value" line superimposedon Figure 11.3 shows the three-year average value used to determine the starting point for air quality planning purposes; it also shows more clearly the trend in ozone concentration by minimizing the fluctuations that inay be influenced by year-to-year changes in the weather.
B. Air Qualitv Planning 

### I.Air Quality Planning Activities The 2008 plans adopted by both the AVAQMD and the MDAQMD were developed with input from local interested parties. Each district's plan was reviewed by an Air PollutionAdvisory Committee made IJ~ of stakeholders appointed by the District board that recommended approval of the local plan. The AVAQMD published a draft of the Antelope Valley 8-Hour Ozone Plan for public review on April 20, 2008; the AVAQMD Board approved the plan at noticed public hearing on May 20, 2008. The MDAQMD released its draft plan for public review on April 25, 2008; the MDAQMD Board adopted the plan on June 9,2008.Figure 11.3 

## -AVAQMD 8-Hour Ozone DesignValue Trend

-- 

# i

C. 

### Plan Evaluation 

### I. MDAQMD Emissions Inventory The main sources of NOx emissions in the ozone nonattainment portion of the 

### ' MDAQMD are heavy-duty diesel trucks, mineral processesand locomotives. The ROG

inventory is dorrlinated 

### by off-road recreational vehicles, passengervehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks. The following two tables (Table 11.1 and Table 11.2) show the top ter, I4Ox and ROG emission sources in the ozone nonattainment portion of the MDAOMD. While NOx emissions are projectedto decline through the attainment year, ROG errlissions are projected to increase, prirrlarily because of projected growth in offroad recreational vehicle use.Table 11.1 

## - MDAQMD 

### NOx Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory)

TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS 

### 1 97% 

### 1 96% 

### 1
Table 11.2 

## - MDAQMD ROG Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory'

Source Category OFF-ROAD RECREATIONALVEHICLES PASSENGER VEHICLES

Passenger Cars Light Trucks, Minivans and SUVs Medium-Duty Trucks HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS



### 1 TOTAL OF TOP 10 

### 1 40 

### 1 44 

### 1

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 2006 14 10 5 4 7 4

2. AVAQMD Emissions Inventory 2020 23 4 7 2 7 2 3

TOTAL MDAQMD

### - Federal Nonattainment area TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS

Mobile sources provide most of the AVAQMD's NOx emissions, while the passenger vehicles, petroleum marketing, and degreasing dominate the district's 4 PETROLEUM MARKETING (GASOLINE EVAPORATIVE LOSSES) 3 LOCOMOTIVES 2 MOTORCYCLES ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTSAND THINNERS) MINERAL PROCESSES (MINING, CEMENT MANUFACTURING) DEGREASING

Numbers may not add exactly due to rounding "Top 10"categories are prioritized by 2006 emissions 48 84% 51 86% 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1ROG inventory. Tables 11.3 

### and 11.4 

### show the top ten 

### NOx 

### and ROG emission sources 

### in the 

### Antelope Valley, 

### and indicatethat total local emissions will 

### continue

### to decline into 

### the region's attainment year, although more slowly for ROG.
Table 

### 11.3 

### -AVAQMD NOx Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory)



# I RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION ]>I [>I

Source Category OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTIONANDMEING) PASSENGER VEHICLES

PassengerCars Light Trucks, Minivansand SUVs Medium-Duty Trucks HEAW-DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS LOCOMOTIVES MANUFACTURING AND INDUSZAL(BOILERS, IC ENGINES) AIRCRAFT COMMERCIAL AND DELIVERY GASOLINE TRUCKS SERVICEAND COMMERCIAL (BOILERS, IC ENGINES)



### Table 11.4

# -AVAQMD 

### ROG Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory) 266 11 - 6 2 2 1 5 2 1 1 1 >I
SCHOOL BUSES

-- TOTALOFTOP 10 TOTAL AVAQMD TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS -


# / Source Category - 

### [ 2006 

## 1 2020 

# 1 2020 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
> 1 >1

>I

26 28 94% >I 14 - 16 89%

PassengerCars Light -

Trucks, Minivans andSUVs Medium-Duty Trucks PETROLEUM MARKETING (GASOLINE EVAPORATIVE LOSSES) 4 3 1 3 2' 2 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 119

22 85% DEGREASING 12 CONSUMERPRODUCTS 12 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 

## /

- 1

Numbers may not add exactlydue to round~ng "Top 10"categories are prioritizedby 2006 emissions ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTSAND THINNERS) - COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS- NON ARCHITECTURAL) AIRCRAFT MOTORCSLES OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (LAWNAND GARDEN) TOTALOFTOP 10 TOTALAVAQMD TOP 10 PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS 

# ' 1 1 1 1 120

23 84%3. Control Measures
i. Mojave DesertAir Quality Management District a) Existing Control Measures The MDAQNID has in place ReasonablyAvailable Control Technology (RACT) requirements for the majority of sources (including gasoline dispensing vapor control), as well as a New Source Review program with a 25 ton per year major source level and a 1.3:l offset ratio requirement. The MDAQMD recently adopted federal RACT rulesfor ship surface coating,' glass man~facturing,~ and polyester resin

### operation^.^ Table 11.5 shows the emission trends for the Mojave Desert. Table 11.5

## - MDAQMD Baseline EmissionTrends (tpd, summer planning inventory)

Numbers may not add due to rounding b) Proposed Control Measures The MDAQMD is not proposingto adopt additional control measures for direct ozone precursor reduction purposes. With MDAQMD's proposedadoption of the three federal RACT rules shown below, the district will fulfill the Act's RACT adoption requirements. The MDAQMD is also analyzing the feasibility of adopt; 

### 19or amending 18 additional rules underthe CCAA's "all feasible measl;;esn mandate.
Table 11.6 

## - MDAQMD RACT Adoption Schedule


# I Publiclv Owned Treatment Works 

### I Federal RACT 

### I 312009

Rule Title ResidentialS~ace Heaters

-~ -

~ ~~ ~ I - ~- 

# I GraphicArts Amendment 

# I Federal RACT 

# 1 9/22/2008 

### ' "Rule 1106 - Marine Coating Operations." amended October23,2006 "Rule 1165 - Glass Melting Furnaces,"amended January 28,2008 "Rule 1162- Polyester Resin Operations," August 27, 2007 Rule Nature Federal RACT Adoption Date 112009ii. Antelope Valley Air Quality Management District a) Existing Control Measures The AVAQMD has in place RACT requirementsfor the majority of sources (including gasoline dispensingvapor control), as well as a New Source Review programwith a 25 ton per year major source level and a 1.3:l offset ratio requirement. Table 11.7 shows the emission trends for the Antelope Valley. Table 11.7

## -AVAQMD Baseline EmissionTrends (tpd, summer planning inventory)

Numbers may not add exactly due to rounding TOTAL

c) Proposed Control Measures The AVAQMD is not proposing to adopt additional control measures for direct ozone precursor reduction purposes. With AVAQMD1s proposed adoption of the three federal RACT rules shown below, the districtwill fulfill the Act's RACT adoption requirements. The AVAQMD is also is reviewing rulesfor 13 source categories under ,the CCAA1s "all feasible measures" mandate. 23

Table 11.8 

## - AVAQMD RACT Adoption Schedule 

## I Rule Title 

## I Rule Nature 

## I Ado~tion Date 

## 1 22

4. State Strategy 4%

Internal Combustion Engines Fugitive Dust Aaricultural Operations

The 2007 State Strategy is expectedto reduce combined ROG and NOx emissions in the Western Mojave Desert by approximately 43 tons per day in 2020. It is already reducing emissions in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. Inthe 2007 State Strategy, ARB has committed to achieve specified emission reductions in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley in 2014, 2020, 28

Federal RACT Federal RACT Federal RACT 112009 312009 1211 612008 16 -43%and 2023, as well as a 2017 emission reduction goal specific to the San Joaquin Valley.5. Contingency Measures The 2007 State Strategy is projectedto continueto reduceemissions beyond the Desert's 2020 attainment year. Statewide, the strategy is projectedto reduce NOx emissions by an additional40 percent, and ROG emissions by an additional 20 percent, from 2020 through 2023. In addition, the State has committed, with the SCAQMD and SCAG, to develop additional,far-reaching strategies needed to bring the South Coast Air Basin into attainment with the 8-hour ozone standard by 2023. The emission commitments in the 2007 State Strategy, and the controls that will be developed to ensure attainment of the ozone standard in the State's extreme areas, will provide both direct and indirect reductions beyond those included in the Western Mojave Desert's projection of attainment in 2020. Formally, the MDAQMD has committed to request implementation of the Enhanced Smog Check Programshould a contingency measurebe triggered. Implementationis estimatedto occur within one year once the contingency measure is triggered. The Enhanced Smog Check Program is already being irr~pleniented in the AVAQMD.

6. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration The Act requires areas classified as moderate or greater to demonstrate that their plans will result in steady progress towards attainirlg ,thefederal standard. This RFP requirement ensuresthat areas will not delay implementation of emission control programs until immediately before the attainment date. As a serious nonattainment area, the Western Mojave Desert must demonstratean average three percent per year reduction in ozone precursors, relative to the 2002 baseyear, on each milestone year through the attainment year. Where both ROG and NOxerr~issions have been shown to contribute to high ozone levels, the Act allows NOxemission reductionsto be used to augment ROG emission reductions in order to demonstrate RFP. Intransport-impacted areas, the Act also allows upwindemissions to betaken into account when assessing RFP. The locally adopted plan includes a demonstration that the rate of progress projectedfor the Western Mojave Desert meetsthe Act's requirements. The RFP demonstrationtakes into account projectedemissions for upwind areas within 100 kilometers of the Western Mojave Desert 

### -specifically,emissions generated in Orange County, and in the South Coast Air Basin portions of Los Angeles and San Bernardinocounties 

### - as allowed by U.S. EPA guidance. As required by the Act, emission reductions attributable to the federal Motor VehicleControl Program (MVCP) as it existed in 1990 have been excluded from the RFP calculations. This adjustment is shown as the "CA MVCPIRVP"adjustment. The RFP demonstration uses baseline emissions only; it does not rely on any emission reductionsfrom the 2007 State Strategy.


### 7. TransportationConformity Budgets
A transportation conformityemissions budget is the level of emissionsfrom on-road motorvehicles that ensures an area makes progress toward clean air and ultimately meets air quality standards by the mandated deadline. Under the Act, transportation activities that receive federal funding or approval must be found to befully consistent with a SIP that demonstrates attainment of the NAAQS. The MDAQMDand AVAQMD each adopted identical transportation conformity budgets for the Western Mojave Desert Ozone Nonattainment Area. The emission budgets established in this plan fulfill the requirements of the Act and U.S. EPA regulations to ensure that transportation projectswill not interfere with progress towards, and attainment of, the 8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

### Table 11.9 

## -Western Mojave DesertTransportation Conformity Budget (tpd, summer planning inventory)

-- 

# 1 On-Road Mobile* 

### ( 22.7 

## 1 82.0 

### [ 19.8-1 705 

## 1 16.6-1 549 

## 1 14.57 43.1 

### ( 13.2 

## 1 35.4 

## 1

Using EMFAC2007
" Reductions from adopted rules not reflectedin EMFAC "' Budget is obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton State Strategy Reductions Conformity Budget***



### D. Attainment Demonstration 1. 

### Modeling Results -- 23

The Southern California regional photochemical modeling used to assess attainment of the 8-hour ozone standard in both Ventura County and the Western Mojave Desert is summarized in Part Iof this report. The following table (Table 11.10) shows the design valuefor each monitoring site in the Western Mojave Desert, based on 2001-2003 air quality data, and the projectedfuture values with implementation of the 2007 State Strategy and local emission reduction commitments included in the SCAQMD1s 2007 Air Quality Maintenance Plan. 

### -- 78 -- -- 20 

## 1 67 -3.4 14 -15.3 36 -2.5 12 -14.1 26 -1.7 -7.4 12 25

### Table 11.10 

## - Ozone Attainment Demonstration

Projected Design Baseline (2001 -2003) Value Monitor Location DesignValue 201 2 

## / 2017 

## / 2020 Lancaster 100.7 86.5 

### 1 79.7 

### 1 74.0 Phelan Hesperia 106.3 

## 1 Barstow 87.6 79.7 73.2 79.5 Twentynine Palms 86.7 77.3 65.8 82.2 The modeling results indicatethat it will not be possible to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010, the moderate area attainment deadline. The 2017 design values projectedfor Phelan and Hesperia exceed the standard, and the projected 88.7 ppb value in Hesperia exceeds the 87 ppb WOE attainment demonstration cutoff. The photochemical modeling projects attainment in 2020, which is consistent with the June 15, 2021 attainment deadlinefor severe-17 nonattainment areas. 2. 

### Weight of Evidence Analysis
ARB staffsdetailedWOE assessments for the Western Mojave Desert support the determination that this area will attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by the 2020 deadlinefor severe-17 areas. TheARB WOE assessments for the Mojave Desertand AntelopeValley AQMDs include the following analyses:

a. Photocherr~ical modeling; b. Air quality trends analyses; c. Emissions and meteorological data; d. Evaluationof other air quality indicators; and e. Additional air quality modeling.
E. Staff 

### Recommendations As described in this report, ARB staff has reviewedthe 2008 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan for the Western Mojave Desert NonattainmentArea (2008 Ozone Plan),and consulted with District staff during this review.
ARB staff finds that the 2008 Ozone Plan meets applicable requirements and concludes that implementation of this plan would reduce ozone levelsthroughout the Western Mojave Desert, thereby resulting in attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by June 2021. Therefore, we recommend that the Board take the following actions:1) Adopt the 2008 Ozone Plan as a revision to the California SIP, including the control strategy, emission inventories, attainment demonstration,and motor vehicle emission budgets. 2) Direct the Executive Officer to submit the plans to U.S. EPA as a revision to the California SIP.



### Ill. VENTURA COUNTY OZONE NONATTAINMENTAREA
A. Introduction On June 15, 2004, U.S. EPA designatedVentura County a moderate nonattainment area based on monitoredozone values from the previous three years. Moderate ozone nonattainment areas are requiredto attain federal 8-hour ozone NAAQS by June 15,2010. On January 23,2008, the VCAPCD requesteda reclassification to a serious nonattainment area since the results of photochemical modeling indicatedthat Ventura County would not attain the standard by 201 0, and would need additionaltime to achieve the necessary emission reductions. U.S. EPA approvedthe VCAPCD request effective June 19,2008. On May 13,2008,the VCAPCD adoptedthe 2007 8-Hour Ozone Plan. ARB staff reviewed the 2007 Ozone Plan and is recommending that the Board approve the 2007 Ozone Plan and submit it to U.S. EPA as a revision to California's SIP.

1. ProfileofVentura County Ventura County is locatedwest of Los Angeles County and is bordered by Kern Countyto the north, Santa Barbara County to the west, and the Pacific Ocean to the southwest. It includes the Channel Islands National Park and serves as a gateway to this five-island marine sanctuary. Ventura County's economic base includesagriculture, biotechnology,telecommunications, and manufacturing activities, as well as tourism, military testing, and development. Port Hueneme serves as the western U.S. distribution network for many imported vehicles, and housesthe largest refrigeratedfruit terminal on the West Coast. Ventura County has a combinationof undeveloped and agricultural lands, as well as developed urban areas. The Los Padres National Forestaccounts for 860 square miles of the northern portion of the County (46 percentof the County's land mass). The County's mountains, valleys and seashore give the area six different microclimates, more than any other county in the nation.Elevatedsmog occurs in Ventura County from May through October, when high temperatures and stable atmospheric conditions favor ozone formation. Ozone generally reaches peak levels by mid-afternoon and, along with ozone precursors, is often blown inland by the prevailing winds. As a result, inland areas such as Sirr~i Valley, Thousand Oaks, Ojai, Fillmore,and Piru continually have higher ozone levels and more days in exceedance of the federal ozone standard than the County's coastal areas. Ozone in the Ventura County Nonattainment Area is caused by bath locally generated emissions and transportfrom the South Coast; the Los Angeles County portion of the South Coast Air Basin lies directly east of Ventura County. In-portand offshore emissions from shipping-related operations also impact Ventura County's air quality. The federal 8-hour ozone nonattainment area includes all of Ventura County except the Channel Islands.
2. 

### HistoricalAir Quality All indicators reviewed in the locally adopted plan show significant improvement in Ventura County's air quality over the last two decades. The number of days over the 8-hour ozone NAAQS decreased by 85 percent, while other key indicators including the designvalue (an average of the fourth highest value in each of three consecutiveyears) declined by approximately 30 percent. As recently as ten years ago, the County's design value was approximately 40 percent above the standard, and design values at each of the County'sseven monitoring sites exceeded the federal standard. By 2006, five Ventura County monitoring sites met the federal standard: El Rio, Emma Wood State Beach, Thousand Oaks, Ventura County (West Casitas Pass Road), and Piru. At 0.09 ppm, the 2006 design values at the remaining nonattainment sites, Ojai and Simi Valley, are lessthan ten percent abovethe standard, as shown in Figure 111.1.Finure 111.1 

# - 8-Hour Ozone Values for Simi Valley and Oiai Valley

0.16 1 -cSim~ Vallev +Oiai

Three YearAverage ofFourth Highest Ozone Concentration, Truncatedat Three Decimal Places. (Source: CaliforniaAir Resources Board)

" " " FederalEight-hourOzone Standard
StateEight-hourOzone Standam' Oo7

# rC. Air Qualitv Planning
1. Recent Air Quality Planning Activities The VCAPCD held a public workshop and providedtwo public review periods in the development of its current 8-hour ozone plan. The first draft was available for public comment from March I, 2007 to April 

### 6, 2007, and a second draft was available for public comment from March 25, 2008 to April 24, 2008. On May 13,2008,the VCAPCD approved the 2007 8-hour ozone plan and negative declarationfor the plan at a duly noticed local heal-ing. 

### D. Plan Evaluation
1. Emissions Inventory Mobile sourcesform the bulk of Ventura County's NOx inventory, with ships and boats vying with on-road mobilesources for the top spot (Table Ill.1). With ROG emissions from mobile sources projectedto decline, area sources are becoming an increasingly significant portion of the ROG inventory (Table 111.2).

### Table 111.1 

## -Ventura County 

### NOx Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory)

Numbers may not add due to rounding "Top 10"categories are prioritized by 2006 emissions SourceCategory SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS Commercial Harbor Craft Ocean Going Vessels PASSENGER VEHICLES Passenger Cars --

AND MINING)

TOTALVCAPCD TOP 10ASA PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS



### Table 111.2 

## -Ventura County ROG Emissions (tpd, summer planning inventory) TOTALOFTOP 10 

## 1 61 

### 1 50 

### 1 2006

16 3 13 12 4

1

68 

## 1 58 90% 

## 1 87% 2012

20 3 17 7 2

OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (OTHER) 

# 1 FARM EQUIPMENT (COMBINES AND TRACTORS)

COMMERCIALAND DELIVERY GASOLINE TRUCKS AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION PUMPS LOCOMOTIVES ELECTRIC UTILITIES

SourceCategory PASSENGER VEHICLES PassengerCars Light Trucks, Minivans and SUVs Medium-Duty Trucks CONSUMER PRODUCTS

Numbers may not add exactly due to rounding "Top 10"categories are prioritized by 2006 emissions 5 2 8 8

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTS AND 'THINNERS) OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (LAWN AND GARDEN) OFF-ROAD RECREATIONALVEHICLES DEGREASING COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS - NON ARCHITECTURAL) OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION (EVAPORATIVE LOSSESIFLARING) TOTAL OF TOP 10 TOTAL VCAPCD TOP 10ASA PERCENT OF TOTAL EMISSIONS 5 3 3 2 2 2

PESTICIDES 5 RECREATIONAL BOATS 4 2006

13 7 4 2 5 4 2 2 0 1 2

2012

8 4 3 1 5

3 3 3 2 2 2 42 54 77% 3 2 3 2 2 2 35 48 73%The SIP must provide for sufficient emission reductions in 2012 in order to demonstrate attainment in 2013. -The following table (Table 111.3) summarizes emission reductions between 2006 and 2012. Emissions of ROG are predicted to decline by 12 percent and NOx by 15 percent,with the largest reductions coming from on-road mobile sources. Table 111.3

## -Ventura County Baseline Emissions with Measures Adopted as of 2006 (tpd, summer planning inventory)

Numbers may not add due to rounding i. Emission Reduction Credits Source Category Stationary and Area-wide On-Road Motor Vehicles

-Off-Road Vehicles and

Equipment

, TOTAL

Federal New Source Review (NSR) rules require new and modified major stationary sources that increase emissions in amounts exceeding specified thresholds to provide emission reduction offsets to mitigate the emissions growth. Emission reduction offsets representeither on-site emission reductionsor the use of banked emission reduction credits (ERCs). Table 111.4 shows the ERCs registered with the VCAPCD for future use as offsets. NOx

Table 111.4

# - Ventura County Emissiorr Reduction Credits ROG 2006 7.7
23
37 68,

ERCs Issued 2002 and Earlier,tpd 2006 24
15


### 15

, 54

Pollutant 

# 1 ERCTO~~I 2012 7.6
14
35 58



## 1 NOx 

## 1 0.51 

### 1 Change 2%
-36%
-4

### %

, -15% 2012

25
10
13

, 48 Change 3%
-36%
-12%

, -12%
,

2. Control Measures I ROG

Currently adopted controls under district, State, and federal jurisdiction will provide continued reductions in ozone precursorsfor the 201 3 attainment deadline. VCAPCD's 2007 Plan also commits to the development of four local control measures. 1.67i. Existing Control Measures 

### Stationary Source Control Measures The Act requires nonattainment areas to demonstrate that they have adopted rules at least equivalent to RACT. The VCAPCD adopted its RACT SIP in June 2006. The RACT SIP found that all VCAPCD rules that apply to ozone precursor emissions fulfill RACT requirementsfor the 8-hour ozone NAAQS.The RACT SIP also found that all sources subject to Control Technology Guidelines (CTG) meet RACT.
Local air districts are responsible for controlling emissions from most stationary and area-wide sources. Most of the VCAPCD rules were fully implemented by 2005 and are reflected in the base year inventory used to develop this plan. The VCAPCD's NSR cutoffs of five tons per year for both NOx and ROG are already below the serious nonattainmentarea threshold of 50 tons per year as specified inthe Act, and the County's 1.3:l offset ratio exceeds the required minimum 1.2:1offset ratio. 

### Transportation Source Measures U.S. EPA identified 16 transportation co~itrol measures (TCM) categories that must be evaluated as part of a RACM demonstration. TCMs include options for reducing vehicle use or conditions that ,leadto higher vehicle emissions. The VCAPCD, along with SCAG and the Ventura County Transportation Commission, reviewed the measures to determine their feasibility. ii. Proposed Control Measures As part of its plan, the VCAPCD committedto consider the adoption of four additional measures, three of which are proposed to be implemented by the 2012 attainment year. If adopted, these measures will provide reductions that were not included in the photochemical modeling. Table 111.5 

### -Ventura Countv Proposed District Control Measures
District Rule 74.18
74.12
74.2 74.29 Control Measure Motor Vehicle and Mobile Equipment Coating Operations Surface Coating of Metal Parts

TBD = to be determined - and Products Architectural Coatings Soil Decontamination Operations Adoption 2008
2008 Implementation 2010
2009 TBD 2008 TBD 2009

### 3. State Control Strategy ARB'S emission reductioncommitments in the 2007 State Strategy specify total reductions to be achieved in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins in 2014, 2020, and 2023 and, for the San JoaquinValley only, in 2017. The irr~plementation of the measures identified to meet these commitments is expected to reduce combined ROG and NOx err~issions inVentura County by an approximately eight tons per day in 2012. These expected emission reductions were not included inthe attainment demonstration modeling.
4. Contingency Measures ARB'Songoing mobile source control program will provideemission reductions beyond Ventura County'sattainment year that will serve as a contingency measure should the County fail to attain the ozone NAAQS in 2012, as shown below in Table 111.6. Emissions in upwind areas are also expected to decrease during this period: baseline ROG and NOx emissions from all sources are expected to decrease by three and eight percent, respectively, from 2012 through 2014. Table 111.6 

## -Ventura County Mobile Source Emissions

'Off-road emissionsextendto 100 nauticalmiles offshore.

Source Category
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile* Total



### 5. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration Federal law specifies that each ozone nonattainment area must demonstrate ongoing emission redl~ctions relative to the baseyear (2002). Federal law requires a three percent per year reduction inVOC emissions, and does not allow credit to be taken for pre-1990federal motorvehicle control programs. Where bothVOC and NOx emissions have been shown to contributeto high ozone levels, the Act allows NOx emission reductionsto augment VOC emission reductions in order to demonstrate RFP. ROG 2012

10 13 23 NOx 2012

15 35 50 2013

8 13 21 2014 7 13 20 2013 13 35 48 2014 11 35 47The Ventura County plan includes an RFP demonstrationthat meets the Act's requirements. The analysis indicatesthat the adopted measures from ARB's mobile source program will provide emissions reductions beyond those needed for Ventura County's RFP demonstration. Emissions generated in the South Coast Air Basin portion of LosAngeles County were included inVentura County's RFP demonstrationas allowed by U.S. EPA guidance. As part of the RFP demonstration, the VCAPCD will rely on a portion (three percent) of surplus NOx reductionsset aside in 2008 for RFP contingency purposes for all milestone years. In September, 2007 the Board adopted revisions to the Pesticide Elementof the 1994 Ozone SIP for the Ventura County NonattainmentArea. The revisions provided a limited-term substitutionof surplus ROG reductions from other measures inARB's strategy as a substitution for part of the 1994 Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) pesticideemission reductioncommitments. DPR recently adopted fumigant regulations that will make up the shortfall by 2012. Since the regulationswere or~ly recently approved, and are still in litigation,the benefits are not included inthe inventory. The Ventura County RFP calculations do not include any reductions from the DPR regulations. Consequently, the pesticide reductionsare not needed to meet RFP or attainment. We expect that future updates to the inventory will include the benefitsof the regulations as DPR reports it actual emissions with the regulations in place.
6. Transportation Conformity Budgets Normally,conformity budgets are set with RFP Plans. However, U.S. EPA is revising its RFP regulations for areas such as Ventura County where air quality is impacted by air pollution transportedfrom upwind regions. Until those revisions are complete, U.S. EPA will not approve conformity budgetsfor such areas. To keep the transportation planning process moving,ARB staff prepared early progress plans (EPP) for the sole purpose of establishingtransportation conformity emission budgetsfor nonattainment areas affected by U.S. EPA's revisions. ARB held a public 30-day comment period for the EPPswhich were approved by the Board in February, 2008 and deemed adequate by U.S. EPA in April, 2008. Ventura County's 2007AQMP includes the following conformity budgetfor a serious 8-hour ozone nonattainment area. Table 111.7 summarizes the motor vehicle emissions budget for transportation conformity purposes under a serious federal 8-hour ozone classification. Once U.S. EPA approves the budget, it will supersede the EPP's conformity budget and serve as the conformity emissions budget for future transportation conformity determinations in Ventura County.Table 111.7

# - On-Road Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (tpd, summer planning inventory)

Using EMFAC2007 ** Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC "' Budget is obtained by rounding up to the nearestton

On-Road Mobile* Adjustments to Baseline** State Strategy Reductions Conformity Budget***

E. A ttainment Demonstration
The Southern California regional photochemical modeling used to assess attainmentof the 8-hour ozone standard in Ventura County is summarized in Part 

### Iof this report. The plan provides a comprehensive descriptionof the modeling approach and inputs used in the model. 12.7 0.0
13



### 1. Modeling Results Using the emissions inventory reflecting a controlled emissions scenario for the projectedyear 2012, the simulation resultswere used to calculate 8-hour ozone design values. Table 111.8 shows the design value for each monitoring site in Ventura County, based on 2001-2003 air quality data, and the projected future values with implementation of the 2007 State Strategy and local emission reduction commitments made by the SCAQMD included in its 2007 AQMP. 20.0 -0.4
20

Table 111.8 

## - Ozone Attainment Demonstration (PPm) 10.6 0.0
11



# I Ojai 

# I .094 

# I .087

. 

# I 

# I Site Baseline Design Value 

# / (2001 -2003) 

## 1 ~iru* 

## I .088 

## I .076 

## 1. 16.3 -0.4

16

Projected Design Value (201 2)

2. Weight of EvidenceAnalysis 10.0 0.0 -1.2

9

Simi Valley

InTable 111.8,the high value of .087 ppm at Ojai in 2012 is within the range of values for which U.S. EPA guidelines allow the use of supplemental analyses to demonstrate attainment. ARB staff prepared a WOE analysisfor Ventura County that assessed air quality trends, emission trends, the special distribution of ozone 15.21 -0.4 -2.5

13

* The Piru monitoring site attainedthe standard in 2006 .092 .084concentrations througho~~t the County, and precursor concentrations measured at the two PhotochemicalAssessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) in Ventura County. The WOE concluded that Ventura County would attain the federal 8-hour ozone standard by 201 2.
F. Staff Recommendations
As described in this report, ARB staff has reviewedthe 2007 Ventura County 8-Hour Ozone Plan, and consultedextensively with VCAPCD staff during this review. ARB staff finds that the plan meets applicable requirements and concludes that implementationof this plan would reduce ozone levelsthroughout Ventura County, thereby resulting in attainment of the 8-hour ozone standard by June, 2013. Therefore,we recommend that the Board take the following actions: (1) Adopt the 2007 Ventura County 8-Hour Ozone Plan as a revision to the California SIP, includingthe control strategy, emission inventories, attainment demonstration,and motor vehicle emission budgets. (2) Direct the Executive Officer to submit the plan to U.S. EPA as a revision to the California SIP.