Figure 1.

Selected Poverty Rates: 1992 and 1993

(In percent)

Poor in an average

month in 1992

Poor in an average

month in 1993

Poor 2 or more

months in 1992

Poor 2 or more

months in 1993

Poor all months

of 1992 and 1993

14.5

14.6

21.2

20.8

4.8

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income and

Program Participation (SIPP).

Figure 2.

Percent of People With Selected

Characteristics Who Were Poor in an

Average Month: 1993

1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP).

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Employed full time

Employed part time

Unemployed

Not in labor force

People in marriedcouple families

People in femalehouseholder families

Unrelated individuals

14.6

11.8

31.7

29.0

22.3

12.0

10.2

3.8

12.4

40.0

20.7

7.7

37.8

22.2

U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

Current Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:

Poverty, 1992-1993

Who Stays Poor? Who Doesn’t?

By T. J. Eller

C E N S U S B U R E A U

Population Reports

 P70-55

 June 1996

Household Economic Studies

Introduction

From the beginning of the “War 

on Poverty” in 1964, Americans

have been concerned about the

consequences of poverty and how

to reduce its prevalence. Much

public policy debate is concerned

with people and families who 

remain poor for long periods of

time. On the other hand, people

who are poor for even a short 

period of time often require outside assistance, a “safety net,” 

to support themselves and their

families through unfortunate 

circumstances.

This report uses data from the

Survey of Income and Program

Participation (SIPP) to examine

the incidence of poverty over various time frames, from October

1991 through April 1994.1 The

SIPP allows us to examine both

the static and dynamic aspects of

poverty. Unlike the poverty and

income data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS),

which do not allow analysis of

changes in income and poverty

status for particular individuals,

SIPP’s longitudinal data make it

possible to measure movement

into and out of poverty for the

same people over the life of the

panel. Examining poverty with

longitudinal data also allows one

to distinguish between short- and

long-term poverty. 

This report focuses on monthly

measures of poverty as derived

from the SIPP—namely, the percent of people who were poor in

an average month of 1992 or

1993, and the percent of people

who were poor 2 months or more

during 1992 or 1993.2 In addition,

the report examines the “chronically poor,” that is, the percent of

people who were poor each

month of 1992 and 1993. Median
2 P70-55

durations of the length of poverty

spells for various subgroups of the

population are also estimated. Finally, the report examines transitions into and out of poverty

during 1992 and 1993

by estimating the number and

percent of people who were poor

in 1 year but not the other.3

Highlights 

 Using annual estimates, about

21.6 (+1.9) percent of people

who were poor in 1992 were

not poor in 1993.4 Children 

and the elderly were less

likely to exit poverty than

nonelderly adults.

 A noticeable proportion of the

population was poor on a

chronic basis: 4.8 (+0.3) 

percent or 11.9 (+0.7) million

people were poor all 24 months

of 1992 and 1993.

 One-half of all poverty spells

lasted 4.9 months or longer, but

Blacks had significantly longer

poverty spells than Whites.

One-half of all spells experienced by Blacks lasted longer

than 6.2 months, compared

with 4.6 months for Whites.

Poverty Rates: 

1992 and 1993

Figure 1 presents different monthly measures of poverty for the

population. About 37.6 million

people were poor in an average

month of 1993, representing 14.6

percent of the population, not significantly different from 14.5 percent in 1992. But people poor in

an average month may provide

too narrow a picture of the poor.

About 52.7 million people or 20.8

percent were poor 2 months or

more in 1993, not significantly different from the 1992 estimate of

52.9 million people or 21.2 percent. A noticeable proportion of

the population was poor on a

chronic basis: 4.8 percent 

(11.9 million) were poor all 24

months of 1992 and 1993, not 

statistically different from the 

5.1 percent (12.5 million) who

were poor all of 1991 and 1992.

Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the percent of people who were poor in

1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP). 

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Employed full time

Employed part time

Unemployed

Not in labor force

People in marriedcouple families

People in femalehouseholder families

Unrelated individuals

20.8

17.6

41.1

40.0

30.3

18.1

13.3

8.8

18.9

50.8

25.9

13.7

46.5

28.6

Figure 3.

Percent of People With Selected

Characteristics Who Were Poor 

2 Months or More: 1993

1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of

Income and Program Participation (SIPP). 

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Employed full time

Employed part time

Unemployed

Not in labor force

People in marriedcouple families

People in femalehouseholder families

Unrelated individuals

4.8

3.1

15.1

10.3

8.3

3.2

4.9

0.5

1.6

9.6

8.5

1.6

17.2

8.1

Figure 4.

Percent of People With Selected

Characteristics Who Were

Chronically Poor: 1992 and 1993

(The chronically poor were poor in all 24

months of 1992 and 1993.)
1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP).

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Employed full time

Employed part time

Unemployed

Not in labor force

People in marriedcouple families

People in femalehouseholder families

Unrelated individuals

4.9

4.6

6.2

5.8

5.2

4.7

7.2

3.8

4.3

5.2

6.3

4.0

7.1

5.2

Figure 6.

Median Durations of Poverty

Spells, by Selected Characteristics:

1992 to Early 1994

(In months)

2–4

5–8

9–12

13–16

17–20

21–24

 More than 24

Figure 5.

Distribution of Poverty Spells, by

Length of Spell: 1992 to 1994

(In percent)

Months

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of

Income and Program Participation (SIPP). 

46

21

9

5

4

2

13

P70-55 3

an average month of 1993, 

the percent of people who were

poor 2 months or more during

1993, and the percent of people

who were poor each month of

1992 and 1993, respectively, 

by race, Hispanic origin, age, 

employment status, and family

status. These figures show 

strong correlations between 

those characteristics and 

poverty status. 

Whites were less likely than

Blacks and Hispanics to be poor

in an average month and for 

2 months or more during 1993.

Blacks were slightly more likely

than Hispanics to be poor in an

average month during 1993, although this was not true in 1992.

Blacks and Hispanics were almost

two and one-half times as likely as

Whites to be poor in an average

month of 1993.5 Blacks, however,

were significantly more likely than

people of Hispanic origin to be

poor all 24 months of 1992 and

1993, 15.1 percent versus

10.3 percent.

More than one in five children

(22.3 percent) was poor in an average month of 1993, compared

with 12.0 percent of nonelderly

adults and 10.2 percent of the elderly. The difference in chronic

poverty between children and

nonelderly adults was striking—

8.3 percent versus 3.2 percent.

Single-parent families generally

have female householders, and

people in female-householder

families are much more likely to

be poor than people in marriedcouple families. Figures 2, 3, and

4 show that 37.8 percent of 

people in female-householder

families were poor in an average

month of 1993, 46.5 percent were

poor at least 2 months, and 17.2

percent were poor continuously for

24 months. The corresponding

proportions of people in marriedcouple families who were poor

were significantly smaller—

7.7 percent, 13.7 percent, and 

1.6 percent, respectively. Unrelated individuals had poverty rates

that were between those in 

female-householder and marriedcouple families.

Not surprisingly, unemployed

people were more likely than

other labor force groups to be

poor. About 40.0 percent of the

unemployed were poor in an

average month of 1993, followed

by 12.4 percent of part-time

workers, and 3.8 percent of

full-time workers. The proportion

of those not in the labor force

who were poor was intermediate

between part-time workers and
1People in the “other” category represent non-Black and

non-White respondents.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP).

Other1

White

Black

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Other families types

Married-couple families

Femalehousehold families

Unrelated individuals

Figure 7.

Distribution of the Poor, by Race, Age,

and Family Type: Using Three

Measures of Poverty

(In percent)

Poor in an average month, 1993

Poor 2 months or more, 1993

Poor all 24 months of 1992 and 1993

67.7

54.3

54.5

27.5

25.0

39.4

4.7

20.6

6.1

41.1

39.4

47.6

50.5

53.2

41.3

8.3

7.4

11.1

39.3

33.5

51.4

2.6

2.4

1.8

22.2

18.6

24.3

35.8

45.4

23.3

1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP).

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Married-couple families

Other families types

Figure 8.

Percent of People With Selected

Characteristics Who Exited Poverty

in 1993

21.6

25.7

13.2

18.4

17.7

26.1

15.0

28.6

12.2

4 P70-55

the unemployed, 20.7 percent.

The percent of people chronically

poor and the percent of people

who were poor 2 months or more

varied in a similar fashion with

employment status.6

Poverty Spells

Figure 5 shows the percent distribution of poverty spells in the

1992 to 1994 period by their

length. Just under one-half of

spells lasted 4 months or less.7

Two-thirds of spells lasted 8

months or less. These estimates

are similar to estimates for the

1991 to 1993 period.

Figure 6 shows the median duration of poverty spells by various

characteristics. The median duration of poverty spells that began

after October 1991 was 4.9

months for all people, higher than

the previously published median

of 4.2 months for spells beginning

after October 1990.8 Between

these two periods, the median

spell duration among people

18 to 64 years old increased from

4.0 months to 4.7 months. The

median poverty spells during 1992

through early 1994 lasted 4.7

months for nonelderly adults, 5.2

months for children, and 7.2

months for the elderly.9

The median durations of poverty

spells were higher for Blacks

than for Whites—6.2 months

compared with 4.6 months.

People of Hispanic origin had a

median duration of 5.8 months,

not significantly different from

the duration of Blacks.

There were significant differences

in spell lengths between full-time

and unemployed workers. Fulltime workers had a median spell

of 3.8 months, compared with 

5.2 months for the unemployed.

There were also statistically significant differences in spell lengths

between the full-time employed

and those not in the labor force,

as well as the part-time employed

and those not in the labor force.

The length of time spent in

poverty also differed by family

type, as shown at the bottom of

figure 6. People in married-couple
1People of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP).

All people

White

Black

Hispanic origin1

Under 18 years

18 to 64 years

65 years and over

Married-couple families

Other families types

Figure 9.

Percent of People With

Selected Characteristics Who

Entered Poverty in 1993

3.0

2.6

6.7

8.6

4.0

2.8

2.2

1.6

6.2

P70-55 5

families and unrelated individuals

had shorter poverty spells than

people in female-householder

families.10 The median poverty

spell experienced by people in female-householder families lasted

7.1 months, compared with 4.0

months for people in married-couple families and 5.2 months for

unrelated individuals.

The Composition of the Poor

Figure 7 shows that the composition of the poor varies by the measure used.11 Reflecting a

tendency toward longer spells of

poverty, the elderly and children

made up a larger fraction of the

chronically poor than of the poverty population defined by the average monthly measure. The

elderly accounted for 11.1 percent

of the chronically poor, but only

8.3 percent of those who were

poor in an average month. For

children, the corresponding fractions were 47.6 percent and 41.1

percent. In contrast, nonelderly

adults accounted for 41.3 percent

of the chronically poor, but 50.5

percent of those who were poor in

an average month.

Figure 7 also shows that despite

much higher poverty rates for

Blacks and people of Hispanic origin, the majority of the poor are

White, regardless of the poverty

measure used. Whites constituted

67.7 percent of the poverty

population in an average month of

1993 and 54.5 percent of the longterm poor.

One sees a strikingly different picture of poverty among various

family types depending on the

measure of poverty that is chosen.

Figure 7 shows that 39.3 percent

of the poor on an average monthly

basis live in families with female

householders, only slightly higher

than the 35.8 percent of the average monthly poor who live in married-couple families. However,

among the chronically poor, 51.4

percent live in families with a female householder, compared with

23.3 percent who live in marriedcouple families.

Transitions Into and 

Out of Poverty

Based on people interviewed over

the 2-year period, 22.7 million

people who were poor in 1992 remained poor in 1993. There was

no significant increase in the number of poor people between 1992

and 1993, as the number of

people who moved out of poverty

(6.3 million) was similar to the

number of people who moved into

poverty (6.5 million). Figure 8 reveals characteristics associated

with high exit rates (i.e. high proportions of people who were poor

in 1992 and then not poor in

1993). For instance, people in

married-couple families were

much more likely to exit poverty

than people in other types of families: 28.6 versus 12.2 percent.

Blacks were less likely than

Whites to exit poverty, and children and the elderly were less

likely than nonelderly adults to 

exit poverty.12

Figure 9 shows the newly poor as

a percent of the population that

was not poor in 1992.13 Characteristics that are associated with

relatively high entry rates are generally the same as those associated with relatively low exit rates.

For instance, Blacks were much

more likely to become poor in

1993 than Whites—6.7 percent

versus 2.6 percent. Similarly,

people in female-householder

families were almost four times as

likely as people in other types of

families to become poor—6.2

compared with 1.6 percent.

Accuracy of the Estimates

All statistics are subject to sampling error, as well as nonsampling

error such as survey design flaws,

respondent classification and reporting errors, data processing

mistakes, and undercoverage.

The Census Bureau has taken

steps to minimize errors in the

form of quality control and edit

procedures to reduce errors made

by respondents, coders, and interviewers. Ratio estimation to independent age–race–sex population

controls partially corrects for bias

attributable to survey undercoverage. However, biases exist in the

estimates when missed people

have characteristics different from

those of interviewed people in the

same age–race–sex group.

Analytical statements in this

report have been tested and

meet statistical standards. 

However, because of methodological differences, use caution

when comparing these data with

data from other sources. More

detailed tabulations on these measures can be found at the Census

Bureau’s internet site at

http://www.census.gov.
6 P70-55

Contacts:

Poverty—

T. J. Eller

301-763-8578

Statistical Methods—

Mark Hendrick

301-457-4182

or on the internet at 

mhendric@census.gov for information on (1) the source of the

data, (2) the accuracy of the 

estimates, (3) the use of standard

errors, and (4) the computation of

standard errors.

Notes to pages 1–5

1The longitudinal estimates presented here are based on people who either were interviewed in all waves of the

reference period, or for whom imputed in- formation exists. Efforts were made during

the life of the panel to ensure that the sam- ple remained representative of the noninstitutional population of the United States.

People who moved were followed to their new address. A “missing wave imputation”

procedure was used for people who missed an interview but had completed interviews

before and after the missing wave. If the

people included in the estimates have different experiences of poverty than do the

people who did not respond initially, left the

sample, or missed two or more consecutive waves, these longitudinal estimates may 

be biased.

2The SIPP collects income information and

family composition on a monthly basis.

Thus, poverty status can also be determined on a monthly basis by comparing

monthly family income to monthly thresholds. Monthly thresholds rise from month to month by the same percentage as the Con- sumer Price Index (CPI). People living in families are poor if the family’s income is less than the threshold for that size family

in the month. An unrelated individual is considered poor, if income in the month is less than an individual’s threshold income for the month. The number of poor in an average month is determined by averaging

the number of poor in each month over the

months of interest. The poverty rate for an average month is determined by summing

the number of poor in each month (e.g., for calendar year 1993) and dividing by the sum of the poverty universes in each

month (e.g., for calendar year 1993).

3The transition estimates reported here are based on annual poverty estimates. Annu- al poverty estimates in this report are obtained by summing monthly family income over the year and comparing it to the sum of the 12 corresponding monthly thresholds,

based on family size and composition in each month. These annual poverty estimates differ from the official poverty estimates that are based on the March

Supplement to the Current Population Sur- vey (CPS). The official estimates assume that the family composition, reported in March of the interview year, did not change

during the previous year. Additionally, the

income and poverty thresholds are updated on a yearly basis, rather than a monthly ba- sis.

4The figures in parentheses signify the

90-percent confidence intervals of

the estimates.

5People of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The information on the Hispanic population shown in this report was collected in

the 50 States and the District of Columbia, and therefore, does not include residents of

Puerto Rico.

6The unemployed were not significantly more likely than people out of the labor

force to be poor all 24 months.

7Periods of poverty must last at least 2

months in order to be counted as spells.

8There was a statistically significant in- crease in the median spell duration for all

people and for people 18 to 64 years old

between the 1991 SIPP panel (covering the

period October 1991 through August 1993) and the 1992 panel (covering the period

October 1991 through April 1994). Howev- er, there were no statistically significant differences in the median durations of poverty

spells, for the subpopulations shown in fig- ure 6, between the 1991 and 1992 SIPP

panels.

9The median duration of poverty spells was not significantly different for nonelderly

adults and children.

10The median duration of poverty spells was lower for people in married-couple

families than for unrelated individuals.

11The test compares the average monthly measure of poverty and the measure of

chronic poverty. The distribution of those

poor 2 months or more during 1993 is also

shown in figure 7.

12Compared with estimates published earli- er, there were no statistically significant

changes in the likelihood of escaping pov- erty in 1992 (based on the 1991 panel) and

in 1993 (based on the 1992 panel) for all

population subgroups in figure 7.

13For the consideration of entries and exits

into poverty in this publication, an annual

poverty concept is used.

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