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Economic Impacts of “Safer-at-Home” Visible from Census’ Quarterly Services Survey Data 

Written By Katie McNitt, Quarterly Services Survey 

Social distancing and “safer-at-home” practices have been in effect for many months now, so what do the data show us 

so far? These protective measures have had widespread effects across the economy; but some industries were affected 

much more quickly, as behavioral changes predated any official stay-at-home directives. 

Our first example is transportation revenue. Passenger transportation industries saw revenue declines in both the first 

and second quarters of 2020. However, the results were mixed for goods-moving industries. The graph above shows 

the quarter-to-quarter percent change in seasonally adjusted revenue for air, truck, and transit and ground passenger 

transportation and couriers and messengers over the past five years. 

◾Airline transportation revenue fell 17.8% in 2020 Q1, then fell 78.5% in 2020 Q2. 

◾Transit and ground passenger transportation revenue fell 9.1% in 2020 Q1, then fell 40.4% in 2020 Q2. 

◾Truck transportation revenue was statistically unchanged in 2020 Q1, then fell 16.7% in 2020 Q2. 

◾Couriers and messengers revenue rose 2.3% in 2020 Q1, then rose 6.4% in 2020 Q2. 

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020

U.S. Selected Transportation and Warehousing Revenue Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change 

(Seasonally Adjusted)* 

Recessions Couriers and Messengers Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation Truck Transporttion Air Transportation

Source: Q2 2020 Quarterly Services Survey <www.census.gov/services>

Note: Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. Differences between percent changes may be attributed to sampling or nonsampling error, rather than underlying 

economic conditions. Caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the estimates and comparisons shown. Additional information on the survey methodology, including sample 

error (e.g., standard errors and relative standard errors) and nonsampling error, may be found at https://www.census.gov/services/qss/how_the_data_are_collected.html.

* Some quarter-to-quarter percent changes depicted in the graph are not statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Actual quarter-to-quarter percent changes 

and accompanying standard errors used to construct these confidence intervals may be found at 

https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2003&endYear=2020&categories=000000A&dataType=QREV&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1¬Adjusted=

0&errorData=0

U.S. Recession is ongoing and defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research https://nber.org/cycles/june2020.html
2 

As you may have heard, safer-at-home practices quickly impacted the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector of the 

economy. The graph above shows the percent change in seasonally adjusted revenue for amusement parks and 

arcades, gambling industries, and performing arts companies. These industries saw notable declines in first quarter 

2020 revenue followed by much larger second quarter declines in revenue. These declines coincided with the mass 

cancellations of date nights, family outings, and spring break activities. 

◾Amusement parks and arcades revenue fell 19.1% in 2020 Q1, then fell 81.1% in 2020 Q2. 

◾Gambling industries revenue fell 12.3% in 2020 Q1, then fell 45.8% in 2020 Q2. 

◾Performing arts companies revenue fell 19.0% in 2020 Q1, then fell 66.1% in 2020 Q2. 

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20.0%

Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020

U.S. Selected Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Revenue Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change 

(Seasonally Adjusted)* 

Recessions Amusement Parks and Arcades Gambling Industries Performing Arts Companies

Source: Q2 2020 Quarterly Services Survey <www.census.gov/services>

Note: Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. Differences between percent changes may be attributed to sampling or nonsampling error, rather than underlying 

economic conditions. Caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the estimates and comparisons shown. Additional information on the survey methodology, including sample 

error (e.g., standard errors and relative standard errors) and nonsampling error, may be found at https://www.census.gov/services/qss/how_the_data_are_collected.html.

* Some quarter-to-quarter percent changes depicted in the graph are not statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Actual quarter-to-quarter percent changes 

and accompanying standard errors used to construct these confidence intervals may be found at 

https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2003&endYear=2020&categories=000000A&dataType=QREV&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1¬Adjusted=

0&errorData=0

U.S. Recession is ongoing and defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research https://nber.org/cycles/june2020.html
3 

With children crashing virtual meetings and watching infinite hours of TV last spring, you might think that child day care 

services took a hit as early as the first quarter with many providers closing their doors in mid to late March. While some 

individual providers may have been affected earlier than others, seasonally adjusted revenue did not significantly 

change in the first quarter of 2020. In the second quarter of 2020, seasonally adjusted revenue fell 35.1%. 

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-25.0%

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10.0%

Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020

U.S. Child Day Care Services Revenue Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change (Seasonally Adjusted)* 

Recessions Child Day Care Services

Source: Q2 2020 Quarterly Services Survey <www.census.gov/services>

Note: Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. Differences between percent changes may be attributed to sampling or nonsampling error, rather than 

underlying economic conditions. Caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the estimates and comparisons shown. Additional information on the survey methodology, 

including sample error (e.g., standard errors and relative standard errors) and nonsampling error, may be found at 

https://www.census.gov/services/qss/how_the_data_are_collected.html.

* Some quarter-to-quarter percent changes depicted in the graph are not statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Actual quarter-to-quarter percent 

changes and accompanying standard errors used to construct these confidence intervals may be found at 

https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2003&endYear=2020&categories=000000A&dataType=QREV&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1¬Adjusted

=0&errorData=0

U.S. Recession is ongoing and defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research https://nber.org/cycles/june2020.html
4 

One of the few industries to see growth in the second quarter of 2020 was community food and housing, and 

emergency and other relief services, highlighting the substantial efforts of public and private groups to respond to the 

profound hardships faced during these uncertain times. Seasonally adjusted, the industry increased 31.2% in the second 

quarter of 2020 after increasing 5.6% in the first quarter of 2020. 

With only two impacted quarters of data available, we have only just begun to measure the impact of Covid-19 on the 

services economy. Although the duration and overall effects are still unclear, unprecedented revenue trends are likely. 

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Q1-2015 Q3-2015 Q1-2016 Q3-2016 Q1-2017 Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020

U.S. Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief Services Revenue 

Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change (Seasonally Adjusted)* 

Recessions Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief Services

Source: Q2 2020 Quarterly Services Survey <www.census.gov/services>

Note: Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. Differences between percent changes may be attributed to sampling or nonsampling error, rather than underlying 

economic conditions. Caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the estimates and comparisons shown. Additional information on the survey methodology, including sample 

error (e.g., standard errors and relative standard errors) and nonsampling error, may be found at https://www.census.gov/services/qss/how_the_data_are_collected.html.

* Some quarter-to-quarter percent changes depicted in the graph are not statistically different from zero at the 90 percent confidence level. Actual quarter-to-quarter percent changes 

and accompanying standard errors used to construct these confidence intervals may be found at 

https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2003&endYear=2020&categories=000000A&dataType=QREV&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1¬Adjusted

=0&errorData=0

U.S. Recession is ongoing and defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research https://nber.org/cycles/june2020.html