# 99017. Zinni Says Saddam's "Shaken, Desperate"

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By Linda D. Kozaryn
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON -- Desert Fox has left Saddam Hussein shaken and 
desperate, according to Marine Corps Gen. Anthony C. Zinni, who 
headed the December operation.

The four-day air campaign did more damage and was far more 
effective than initially estimated, the U.S. Central Command 
chief said. "We've upped our estimate on the time it would take 
Saddam to repair the damages from Desert Fox from one to two 
years," Zinni said at the Pentagon Jan. 8.

Further analysis has shown that structural damage was severe; 
facilities are beyond repair in some cases. The strikes hit one-
of-a-kind items available only outside Iraq -- critical 
equipment necessary for Saddam's missile development program. 

The bombs and missiles did not hit empty buildings as first 
reported, Zinni said. "In some cases, especially in the first 
night's strikes, [Saddam] didn't have the opportunity to 
disperse critical equipment within," he reported.

Unconfirmed reports estimate Republican Guard casualties at 600 
to 2,000, including senior leaders. "We're trying to confirm 
those reports as to who they were and what positions they held," 
Zinni said. The strikes damaged the guard's infrastructure, 
command and control, yet they're still being given internal 
security missions that they'll have to execute under some tough 
conditions, he said.

"There are some brigades and divisions right now that are 
operating out of tents," Zinni said. "They don't have barracks 
to go back to. They don't have a headquarters or 
[communications] equipment. They have communications problems 
because we hit communications nodes. To replace all that and re-
establish that kind of capability within the Republican Guards -
- critical to the security of the regime -- will take quite 
awhile."

Along with the physical destruction, Desert Fox reportedly has 
caused some instability within Iraq and unrest in the Iraqi 
army, Zinni said. "We've seen a number of unusual things 
internally that clearly demonstrate that [Saddam] was shaken and 
the regime was shaken," the commander said. "We have seen 
executions in the south. One division, in particular, lost its 
commander and several staff members."

Allegedly, the executions resulted from a failure to obey 
orders, Zinni said. Prior to Desert Fox, he said, Saddam divided 
Iraq into fourths and put ruthless people in charge, including 
those responsible for attacks on Iraq's Kurds in the north and 
Shiite Muslims in the south. 

There appear to be two chains of command -- the regular military 
leaders and those put in place by Saddam -- and that's creating 
resentment and problems of loyalty as troops wonder who they 
answer to, Zinni said. 

Saddam displayed his state of mind Jan. 5 in a televised Army 
Day speech that clearly reflected his isolation, Zinni said. The 
Iraqi dictator called on all Arabs to rise up against their 
leaders for "pandering to Western interests."

"His attack on all the other leaders in the region showed a 
degree of desperation that we hadn't seen before," the general 
said. "To us that speech was shocking." Other leaders in the 
region "bristled at this attack on them," he added.

Signs of unrest and some loss of internal control are clear, but 
not their extent, Zinni said. And what might a desperate Saddam 
do under the circumstances? According to the general, the Iraqi 
leader is capable of anything. 

"He's capable of not only doing things irrationally, but of 
miscalculating," Zinni said. "He's made a profession out of 
miscalculation. He hopes for a propaganda victory. He obviously 
doesn't value the lives of his own troops. He doesn't care about 
his own people." That track record and those attitudes make him 
dangerous, he said.

The United States has contingency plans should the Iraqi 
dictator move toward Kuwait, fire missiles at his neighbors, and 
other possible scenarios. "We have plans for everything," Zinni 
said.

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