# Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections

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In dependent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585

# U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections i 

# This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this re port therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other f ederal agencies

.

# U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections ii 

# Table of Contents AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections

.............................. 1 Appendix (Tables 2 through 22)

................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 6

# U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections iii 

# Tables Table 1. Comparison of AEO Reference Case Projections with Realized Outcomes, 1994

- 2014

................. 3 Tables 2 through 22

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 6

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# AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy production, consumption and prices each year in the Annual Energy Outlook ( AEO ). Each year, EIA also produces an AEO Retrospective Review document, which presents a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous editions of the AEO . The purpose of the Retrospective is to show the relationship between past AEO projections and actual energ y indicators, enable trend analysis, and inform discussions of potential improvements to the AEO

. The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given assumptions and methodologies. The AEO Reference case projec tion assumes trends that are consistent with historical and current market behavior, technological and demographic changes, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not refl ected in the Reference case projections

. 1



# The discussion and analysis in each year’s AEO primarily focuses on a Reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher oil price cases. In addition to these standard cases, numerous alt ernative cases have been included in recent AEOs

. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long

- term projections.

The AEO Retrospective comparison, by contrast, summarizes the difference s between actual energy indicators and past AEO Reference case projections (alternative AEO cases are not included) by calculating the average absolute differences and the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO1994 through AEO 2014

. 2 

# The average absolute percent difference is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference case projection and the actual value. The historical data are primarily from the Monthly Energy Review ( M ER)

. 3 

# This edition includes tables for prices in constant dollars in addition to nominal

- dollar tables. Projections for consumption concepts depend on real prices, so constant

- dollar price comparisons give a clearer picture of the linkage between consum ption projection differences and price projection differences.

The annual projection process begins with the development of assumptions for two key drivers

— the world oil price and the macroeconomic growth baseline

— that are determined exogenously to the N ational Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to prepare the AEO . While the integrated nature of NEMS result s in some dynamic feedback that slightly modifies the initial assumptions about the world oil

1 

# Each full Annual Energy Outlook includes a variety of other cases with different assumptions

– for AEO201 4 , 29 alternative

cases exploring different assumptions and different policies were presented in addition to the Reference case

. 2 

# The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) has been used to prepare the Annual Energy Outlook since AEO1994 , and this publication covers only these AEOs

. The AEO2009 results are from “An Updated A nnual E nergy O utlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook” (passed after the official publication of the AEO2009 ). This version is only available on the EIA website at: http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/index.html . Finally, projections from AEO s for 1994 and 1995 ended in 2010, so bey ond 2010, entries for these two publications are now blank in Tables 2 through 22. 3 

# GDP and the GDP price deflators historical data are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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# price and the macroeconomic growth baseline, these feedb acks tend to be relatively small, so the initial assumptions for these drivers largely determine the overall projection environment. To the extent that the initial assumptions used to drive the NEMS projections deviate from th e realized environment , the N EMS projection results for energy markets will also generally deviate from realized energy outcomes

. Table 1 provides a summary of 25 comparisons based on 21 primary concepts ( the other four concepts

are energy price projections presented in both real

- dol lar and nominal

- dollar valuations ) . The detailed results that underlie Table 1 are presented in Tables 2 through 22 . These tables show the Reference case projections, historical values and percent differences between projected and actual for all years available. They also provide the average absolute difference across all AEOs for each year of history. The tabulated results can change from one year’s evaluation to the next due to data revisions for prior years that can occur in the Monthl y Energy Review (MER), and , occasionally , in gross domestic product (GDP)

. The first column in Table 1 is the simple average of the absolute value of percent differences for each concept across all AEOs since the 1994 edition and across all available histo rical years. In general, energy consumption quantities tend to be more stable and thus projected with greater accuracy than the relatively volatile concepts of net imports and energy prices. This is because energy consumption trends reflect underlying so urces of inertia in the energy

- consuming capital stock, substantial lead times for capital purchase decisions, locked

- in contract periods, and consumer perceptions of and responses to price changes. The average absolute percent differences for energy cons umption, production, and carbon dioxide emissions range roughly between 5 % and 11 % . The absolute percent differences for energy prices range between 1 0 % and 3 8 %

. Net imports tend to exhibit even larger average absolute differences , ranging between 25 % an d 55 % , primarily influenced by pre

- 2008 AEOs which projected much higher net imports

. The second column of Table 1 provides a summary of the percentage of cases in which a particular concept is overestimated relative to its actual value out of the total number of annual projections made for which actual values are available across all AEOs since the 1994 edition . A zero would represent a concept that was always underestimated and 100 % would represent a concept always overestimated. In an “unbiased” proj ection, one would expect the percentage of overestimates to be close to 50 % when the sample size is large enough.

The underlying reasons for deviations between the AEO Reference case projections and actual outcomes are numerous and varied. C hanges in economic, market, and technological trends and in policies affecting energy choices are often important drivers of these deviations. EIA monitors these developments and uses the best available data to continuously update NEMS and the AEO project ions. EIA makes extensive use of scenarios in the AEO to explore the implications of major breaks from historical trends

. E ven though the precise timing and magnitude of a change in trend cannot be predicted, the likelihood that there will be some change s in trend is virtually certain, and the impact of such changes is identified using the AEO scenarios. Thus, the full range of potential outcomes cannot be evaluated with the AEO Reference case alone, but only in conjunction with the relevant AEO scenario s and other analysis as applicable to a specific situation.

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# Table 1

. Comparison of AEO Reference Case Projection s with Realized Outcomes, 1994

- 2014

Variable Average Absolute Percent Difference Percent of Projections Over

- Estimated

Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth)* (Table 2) 0.9 45.8 Petroleum Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Constant $) (Table 3a) 37.7 17.3 Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil (Nominal $) (Table 3b) 36.6 18.7 Total Petroleum Consumption (Table 4) 7.9 70.7 Crude Oil Production (Table 5) 8.1 51.1 Petroleum Net Imports (Table 6) 24.7 73.8 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector (Constant $)** (Table 7a) 29.5 28.9 Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector (Nominal $)** (Table 7b) 28.7 31.1 Total Natural Gas Consumption (Table 8) 8.0 67.1 Natural Gas Production (Table 9) 7.4 60.4 Natural Gas Net Imports (Table 10) 54.5 74.7 Coal Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants (Constant $)*** (Table 11a) 20.1 36.0 Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants (Nominal $)*** (Table 11b) 21.1 39.1 Total Coal Consumption (Table 12) 10.8 66.7 Coal Production (Table 13) 7.8 69.3 Electricity Average Electricity Prices (Constant $) (Table 14a) 10.4 32.9 Average Electricity Prices (Nominal $) (Table 14b) 12.2 38.7 Total Electricity Sales (Table 15) 4.9 53.8 Total Energy, Carbon and Intensity Total Energy Consumption (Table 16) 6.8 80.9 Delivered Residential Energy Consumption (Table 17) 5.4 71.6 Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption (Table 18) 6.6 50.7 Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption (Table 19) 11.3 86.2 Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption (Table 20) 7.9 80.9 Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Table 21) 8.5 68.0 Energy Intensity (Energy Consumption / Real $ GDP) (Table 22) 10.0 93.3

AEO

– Annual Energy Outlook Source: These statistics summarize the calculations in Tables 2 through 22. The data in Tables 2 through 22 are based on the 1994 through 2014 AEO Reference case projections. Historical data are taken from the Monthly Energy Review September 25, 2014, DOE/EIA

- 0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 2014), except for GDP data which are from the Burea u of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, September 2014, http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls. * The basis for GDP comparison is the projection differences in the cumulative average growth rate of real GDP from the first year shown for each AEO. The summary information for projection differences given for GDP growth rates is absolute percentage point differences; for all other AEO concepts, the comparison basis is absolute percent differences. ** As of 2013, the wellhead price of natural gas was no longer reported by EIA. With this edition of the Retrospective , the natural gas price to the electric power sector replaces the wellhead price. *** Beginning in AEO2003, EIA electric generating projections incorporated combined heat and power (CHP) electricity generation in electricity generating plants. Prior to AEO2003, coal price projections reflected data collected, estimated, and reported to electric uti lities and excluded CHP power generation.

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# S ome notable factors contributing to deviations between actual outcomes and AEO projections are:

• Macroeconomic factors play a very important role in determining energy usage. The financial crisis and resultin g economic weakness starting in 2007 was not anticipated in AEO modeling as NEMS does not project future business cycles. AEO2001 through AEO2009 over

- projected macroeconomic growth (Table 2). Earlier AEOs systematically underestimated cumulative growth, even through 2007

- 2009 , due in part to the robust 3.9% ave rage growth in real GDP from 1993 through 2000

. Post

- 2000 real GDP growth has decreased to an average of 1. 8 % , and AEOs produced during this period have tended to over estimate , even before the impacts of the latest recession. In general , the AEO tends to lag behind macroeconomic trends as a result of an analytic framework which returns economic factors to long

- run trends, rather than attempting to predict business cycles or other economic phenomena.

• The imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in 20 1 3 was just under $ 100 per barrel , down nearly 5 dollars from its peak in 2011 (Tables 3a, 3b)

. M any of the AEOs prior to AEO2006 projected nominal prices less than $ 3 5 per barrel in 2013 . U nderestimation of crude oil prices since 2000 , and higher vehicle efficiency standards that were not included in the Reference Case assumptions, contributed to overestimation of petroleum consumption for these AEOs . This coupled with the effects of the 2007

- 2009 recession has generally resulted in overestimates of petroleum consumptio n for the years since 2008 (Table 4).

• Petroleum net imports peaked in 2005, falling successively in each year since. Before AEO2006 , with few exceptions, AEOs had projected rising net imports post

- 2005 . From AEO2006 on, projections for net imports have included years of decline (Table 6). This effect was caused primarily by the economic downturn , with a lesser contribution from increasing vehicle fuel efficiency. More recently, rising domestic oil production has also played an imp ortant role

. Going forward, t he phased increase in light

- duty vehicle fuel economy standards through 2025 will continue to reduce projected petroleum consumption (with gasoline use falling enough to compensate for some continuing freight

- driven growth in diesel fuel use)

.

• Natural gas production has increased each year after 200 5 after a long period of relatively flat production , and achi eved another record high level in 2013 (Table 9). Natural gas net imports peaked in 2007, falling successively in each year since , with 201 3 at the lowest level shown (Table 10). AEOs since AEO2006 have tended to underestimate production and consequently overestimate net imports.

• Prior to 20 09 , t he fuel with the largest absolute percent difference between the projections and historical consumption has generally been natural gas. This can be partially traced to the performance of natural gas price projections. In earlier projections, the natu ral gas price was influenced by the changes in the world oil price, but this relationship has decoupled since 2000. Through AEO2005 , the Reference case has generally overestimated natural gas consumption (Table 8), in part due to the tendency for signific ant underestimates of the natural gas price (Table s 7a, 7b). In addition, industrial natural gas usage is highly sensitive to business cycles, leading to greater volatility in overall natural gas consumption.

• Coal consumption is dominated by electric gen erating use and usage generally grew modestly until 2009 (Table 12)

. Coal prices to electric generating plants have been increasing smoothly since 2000 until they flattened in 2012, then dropped slightly in 2013 (Table s 11 a, 11b )

. I n 2009, the natural gas price to the electric power sector dropped nearly 50% primarily due to increases

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# in natural gas production (Tables 7a, 7b)

. As a result, 2009 coal consumption dropped by over 10% and has not achieved the 2009 level since

. Th ese co mbined outcomes have led to coal consumption being overestimated by 10 to 3 1 % since 2009 (Table 12)

.

• Electricity prices were almost always underestimated in the Reference case projections from AEO 1998 on (Table s 14a, 14b)

. In deregulated markets, natura l gas tends to determine marginal electricity prices , and with part of the U nited S tates remaining regulated , this presents a complex pricing environment for a national projection; but overall, the underestimation of natural gas prices pre

- 2009 and of coal prices generally ( noted above ) also results in underestimated electricity prices.

• In 2013 , t otal energy consumption experienced a 3% increase but was still lower than it was in 2000

. Nearly all AEOs projected rising consumption over the historical pe riod , with AEO200 8 , AEO2009 and AEO201 2 being exception s by exhibiting single

- year declines early in their projection horizons . This is the result of earlier AEOs not anticipating the strong effects of the recent recession as well as underestimation of reduct i ons in the energy intensity of the economy , as discussed below

. Projection differences tend to be relatively small; however, some pattern of overestimation is evident (Tables 16 to 20).

• Projected energy intensity has been the concept most often o verestimated (Table 22). Energy intensity for the retrospective comparisons is defined as the ratio of two other projected concepts: total energy consumption and real GDP. As a ratio, the projection differences are dependent upon relative differences in energy consumption and real GDP. The overestimates of energy intensity are the result of two “reinforcing” features of past projections. During the period through AEO2000 , GDP tended to be underestimated, which imparts a tendency to overestimate energy i ntensity. 4 

# Post

- 1998 , energy consumption has tended to be overestimated, once again imparting a tendency to overestimate intensity.

4 

# The recent comprehensive revisions to GDP included with the update from 2005 chained dollars to the BEA current use of 2009 chained dollars increase nominal GDP in 2005 by about 3.7% . This was the chained dollar year for AEOs 2011 through 2014. Since the prior AEOs could not have anticipated this level adjustment, Table 22 includes an upward adjustment of 3.7% in GDP across all of the projection years. Energy intensity is still the most often overestimated concept after this adjustment

. AEO 2015 will be based on the 2009 chained dollar concept and will not be adjusted in future Retrospectives

.

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# Appendix (Tables 2 through 22)

Tables 2 through 22

NOTE: Shading in the following tables indicates the degree of overestimation (blue shades) or underestimation (green shades).

## Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual Projected Real GDP Growth Trend (cumulative average percent growth in projected real GDP from first year shown for each AEO) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 3.09 3.15 2.86 2.78 2.73 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.56 2.53 2.52 2.49 2.45 2.41 2.40 2.36 2.32 2.29 AEO 1995 3.66 2.77 2.53 2.71 2.67 2.61 2.55 2.48 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.39 2.35 2.31 2.27 2.24 AEO 1996 2.61 2.20 2.46 2.48 2.46 2.46 2.45 2.41 2.37 2.36 2.35 2.33 2.28 2.24 2.20 2.16 2.13 2.10 2.07 AEO 1997 2.14 1.87 2.02 2.19 2.28 2.27 2.23 2.24 2.23 2.21 2.22 2.22 2.17 2.12 2.09 2.05 2.02 1.99 AEO 1998 3.40 2.87 2.63 2.52 2.44 2.37 2.31 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.28 2.27 2.25 2.23 2.20 2.17 2.14 AEO 1999 3.39 2.49 2.51 2.41 2.37 2.36 2.34 2.37 2.39 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.35 2.32 2.27 AEO 2000 3.79 2.86 2.74 2.63 2.62 2.63 2.63 2.57 2.52 2.48 2.44 2.41 2.35 2.32 2.32 AEO 2001 5.21 4.52 4.18 3.90 3.70 3.58 3.47 3.41 3.36 3.32 3.29 3.25 3.23 3.21 AEO 2002 1.03 1.61 2.13 2.30 2.47 2.53 2.61 2.73 2.84 2.93 3.01 3.01 3.01 AEO 2003 2.44 2.83 3.02 2.98 2.97 3.02 3.10 3.15 3.22 3.24 3.24 3.22 AEO 2004 2.30 3.02 3.29 3.34 3.35 3.34 3.29 3.25 3.21 3.18 3.18 AEO 2005 4.36 3.96 3.64 3.58 3.44 3.40 3.36 3.31 3.27 3.25 AEO 2006 3.64 3.46 3.36 3.39 3.33 3.27 3.21 3.16 3.13 AEO 2007 3.32 2.89 2.94 2.97 2.97 2.98 2.94 2.91 AEO 2008 2.14 1.87 2.11 2.41 2.58 2.60 2.57 AEO 2009 1.28 -0.83 0.22 1.07 1.52 1.78 AEO 2010 -2.83 -0.90 0.55 1.32 1.61 AEO 2011 2.65 2.40 2.91 3.16 AEO 2012 1.76 1.51 1.79 AEO 2013 2.11 1.84 AEO 2014 1.84 Average Absolute Difference 0.34 0.31 0.34 1.06 1.29 1.42 1.61 1.60 1.08 0.89 0.78 0.71 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.89 1.09 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.87



### Projected vs. Historical (percent difference)



### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 0.34 -0.24 -0.31 -0.54 -0.82 -1.05 -1.22 -1.28 -0.99 -0.84 -0.80 -0.87 -0.91 -0.90 -0.81 -0.62 -0.31 -0.34 AEO 1995 -0.38 -0.60 -0.98 -1.05 -1.23 -1.41 -1.49 -1.16 -0.98 -0.93 -0.96 -0.98 -0.96 -0.89 -0.69 -0.36 -0.38 AEO 1996 -0.11 -1.06 -1.21 -1.38 -1.57 -1.58 -1.14 -0.95 -0.93 -0.99 -1.00 -0.96 -0.89 -0.68 -0.34 -0.37 -0.35 -0.37 -0.39 AEO 1997 -1.65 -2.27 -2.22 -2.16 -2.02 -1.47 -1.23 -1.14 -1.20 -1.20 -1.12 -1.00 -0.77 -0.40 -0.44 -0.41 -0.44 -0.45 AEO 1998 -1.09 -1.60 -1.91 -1.91 -1.29 -1.04 -1.01 -1.07 -1.07 -1.01 -0.88 -0.60 -0.17 -0.20 -0.18 -0.20 -0.22 AEO 1999 -1.06 -2.08 -1.90 -1.13 -0.82 -0.76 -0.87 -0.86 -0.78 -0.63 -0.32 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.04 AEO 2000 -0.89 -1.53 -0.49 -0.25 -0.24 -0.39 -0.43 -0.44 -0.35 -0.07 0.38 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.23 AEO 2001 1.12 2.00 1.91 1.49 1.01 0.78 0.70 0.76 1.04 1.52 1.42 1.41 1.36 1.31 AEO 2002 0.05 0.23 0.28 -0.03 -0.07 -0.02 0.16 0.63 1.29 1.29 1.37 1.31 1.27 AEO 2003 0.66 0.53 0.23 0.05 0.09 0.33 0.84 1.53 1.50 1.53 1.47 1.42 AEO 2004 -0.51 -0.28 -0.02 0.19 0.47 1.00 1.70 1.54 1.51 1.42 1.37 AEO 2005 0.58 0.40 0.38 0.68 1.20 2.01 1.81 1.75 1.63 1.55 AEO 2006 0.29 0.46 0.76 1.52 2.41 2.08 1.96 1.78 1.66 AEO 2007 0.65 0.67 1.56 2.64 2.21 2.08 1.83 1.67 AEO 2008 0.37 1.13 2.56 2.13 2.03 1.76 1.53 AEO 2009 1.57 0.71 0.42 0.82 0.86 0.86 AEO 2010 -0.05 -0.74 0.13 0.42 0.45 AEO 2011 0.11 0.33 0.76 0.99 AEO 2012 0.16 -0.45 -0.26 AEO 2013 -0.21 -0.43 AEO 2014 -0.38

## Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual (Continued) Historical Real GDP Growth Trend (cumulative average percent growth in historical real GDP from first year shown for each AEO)



### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2.75 3.39 3.17 3.32 3.55 3.70 3.84 3.87 3.55 3.37 3.32 3.36 3.36 3.31 3.20 2.98 2.63 2.63 2.57 2.56 2.55

AEO 1995 4.04 3.38 3.52 3.76 3.90 4.03 4.04 3.65 3.44 3.38 3.41 3.41 3.35 3.24 3.00 2.63 2.62 2.57 2.55 2.54

AEO 1996 2.72 3.26 3.66 3.86 4.02 4.04 3.59 3.37 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.29 3.18 2.92 2.53 2.53 2.48 2.47 2.46

AEO 1997 3.80 4.14 4.24 4.35 4.30 3.74 3.46 3.38 3.42 3.41 3.35 3.21 2.94 2.52 2.52 2.46 2.46 2.44

AEO 1998 4.49 4.47 4.54 4.43 3.73 3.40 3.32 3.38 3.37 3.30 3.16 2.87 2.42 2.43 2.38 2.37 2.36

AEO 1999 4.45 4.57 4.41 3.54 3.19 3.12 3.22 3.23 3.17 3.03 2.72 2.25 2.28 2.23 2.23 2.23

AEO 2000 4.69 4.39 3.24 2.87 2.86 3.01 3.06 3.01 2.87 2.55 2.06 2.10 2.06 2.08 2.09

AEO 2001 4.09 2.52 2.28 2.41 2.68 2.79 2.77 2.65 2.32 1.80 1.86 1.84 1.88 1.90

AEO 2002 0.98 1.38 1.85 2.33 2.53 2.56 2.45 2.10 1.55 1.64 1.64 1.70 1.74

AEO 2003 1.79 2.30 2.79 2.93 2.88 2.69 2.26 1.62 1.72 1.71 1.76 1.80

AEO 2004 2.81 3.29 3.31 3.15 2.87 2.34 1.59 1.71 1.70 1.76 1.80

AEO 2005 3.79 3.57 3.26 2.89 2.25 1.39 1.55 1.56 1.64 1.70

AEO 2006 3.34 3.01 2.59 1.87 0.92 1.19 1.25 1.38 1.47

AEO 2007 2.67 2.22 1.38 0.32 0.76 0.90 1.10 1.24 AEO 2008 1.78 0.74 -0.45 0.29 0.55 0.84 1.04

AEO 2009 -0.29 -1.54 -0.20 0.25 0.66 0.92

AEO 2010 -2.78 -0.16 0.43 0.90 1.16

AEO 2011 2.53 2.07 2.15 2.17 AEO 2012 1.60 1.96 2.05 AEO 2013 2.32 2.27 AEO 2014 2.22

Growth Rate, Real GDP* 2.75 4.04 2.72 3.80 4.49 4.45 4.69 4.09 0.98 1.79 2.81 3.79 3.34 2.67 1.78 -0.29 -2.78 2.53 1.60 2.32 2.22 * These are historical annual growth rates in real GDP (2009 chained dollars). The annual changes are compounded and averaged in the table above beginning with the first year for each AEO. Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014.

### Table 3a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per barrel in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) 

### AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1992 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16 AEO 1995 1993 14.90 16.41 16.90 17.45 18.00 18.53 19.13 19.65 20.16 20.63 21.08 21.50 21.98 22.44 22.94 23.50 24.12 AEO 1996 1994 16.81 16.98 17.37 17.98 18.61 19.27 19.92 20.47 20.97 21.41 21.86 22.25 22.61 22.97 23.34 23.70 24.08 24.45 24.79 AEO 1997 1995 19.52 18.54 18.21 18.22 18.20 18.64 18.99 19.28 19.50 19.72 19.89 20.03 20.16 20.29 20.41 20.54 20.68 20.79 AEO 1998 1996 18.16 17.99 18.57 19.11 19.36 19.51 19.79 19.99 20.19 20.22 20.37 20.52 20.66 20.81 20.95 21.10 21.23 AEO 1999 1997 12.37 13.25 13.97 15.21 16.24 17.47 18.40 19.25 20.15 20.90 21.04 21.17 21.30 21.43 21.57 21.69 AEO 2000 1998 17.13 21.19 20.06 20.18 20.28 20.39 20.49 20.59 20.70 20.79 20.90 21.00 21.10 21.21 21.31 AEO 2001 1999 27.59 23.81 21.44 20.56 20.74 20.83 20.94 21.05 21.14 21.26 21.37 21.47 21.57 21.67 AEO 2002 2000 22.48 21.11 22.39 22.59 22.73 22.85 22.99 23.11 23.24 23.36 23.49 23.62 23.74 AEO 2003 2001 23.33 25.83 24.05 23.27 23.43 23.57 23.71 23.85 23.99 24.14 24.28 24.42 AEO 2004 2002 27.25 23.84 23.30 23.47 23.65 23.83 24.00 24.17 24.37 24.53 24.72 AEO 2005 2003 35.00 33.99 30.00 27.35 26.15 25.30 25.00 25.35 25.69 26.04 AEO 2006 2004 49.70 53.95 51.46 48.98 46.49 43.99 43.78 43.59 43.39 AEO 2007 2005 61.75 59.49 57.23 54.21 51.20 48.48 46.22 45.01 AEO 2008 2006 62.10 72.77 68.32 65.18 62.67 60.06 57.36 AEO 2009 2007 96.46 38.75 48.99 61.99 72.15 80.99 AEO 2010 2008 56.49 67.40 66.63 72.94 79.09 AEO 2011 2009 74.86 80.32 80.65 82.87 AEO 2012 2010 99.99 99.08 106.64 AEO 2013 2011 101.31 96.02 AEO 2014 2012 101.56 Actual in Nominal$ 16.14 15.51 17.14 20.64 18.53 12.04 17.26 27.70 22.00 23.71 27.71 35.90 48.86 59.02 67.04 92.77 59.17 75.86 102.63 101.09 98.11 Average Absolute Difference 0.93 0.94 0.33 1.88 0.53 5.90 2.58 5.84 1.77 1.69 3.43 9.06 17.78 22.97 26.30 43.28 18.97 28.15 45.49 45.46 39.92



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 5.9 10.8 5.8 -7.0 9.1 76.9 30.7 -13.2 16.8 14.9 4.3 -14.6 -33.6 -41.7 -45.9 -59.1 -33.8 -46.8 AEO 1995 -1.9 -0.2 -13.1 1.7 63.2 19.0 -21.7 3.5 0.1 -10.6 -27.6 -44.0 -51.1 -54.9 -66.0 -45.0 -55.5 AEO 1996 0.1 -14.5 -0.9 59.6 17.0 -22.8 2.8 -0.5 -11.1 -28.0 -44.2 -51.6 -55.5 -66.7 -46.5 -57.1 -67.1 -65.5 -63.4 AEO 1997 -3.7 3.6 58.4 12.2 -28.6 -5.8 -9.6 -19.9 -35.7 -50.7 -57.6 -61.4 -71.4 -54.5 -63.9 -72.6 -71.4 -70.0 AEO 1998 -0.3 53.6 12.3 -26.4 -3.9 -8.8 -19.2 -35.3 -50.4 -57.6 -61.4 -71.4 -54.5 -63.8 -72.5 -71.4 -69.9 AEO 1999 3.9 -21.2 -47.1 -25.8 -25.3 -29.9 -41.4 -53.5 -58.5 -61.1 -71.1 -54.1 -63.6 -72.3 -71.2 -69.7 AEO 2000 0.8 -20.6 -3.2 -8.2 -19.5 -35.8 -51.1 -58.1 -61.9 -71.8 -55.2 -64.5 -73.1 -72.0 -70.6 AEO 2001 1.9 13.2 -3.9 -19.6 -35.7 -51.0 -58.0 -61.8 -71.8 -55.1 -64.4 -73.0 -72.0 -70.6 AEO 2002 4.5 -7.5 -14.4 -31.5 -47.7 -55.2 -59.2 -69.8 -52.0 -61.9 -71.1 -70.0 -68.5 AEO 2003 -0.1 -3.5 -28.7 -47.7 -55.1 -59.1 -69.7 -51.9 -61.8 -71.0 -69.8 -68.3 AEO 2004 0.3 -30.4 -48.4 -55.7 -59.6 -70.0 -52.3 -62.1 -71.2 -70.0 -68.4 AEO 2005 0.2 -26.2 -44.4 -54.2 -67.7 -50.7 -61.5 -70.6 -69.2 -67.3 AEO 2006 5.0 -2.7 -16.2 -41.2 -11.8 -34.1 -50.5 -49.1 -47.0 AEO 2007 7.8 -6.1 -33.4 -0.4 -25.7 -46.9 -47.7 -46.8 AEO 2008 -4.9 -17.9 21.8 -8.3 -33.5 -34.1 -34.2 AEO 2009 6.0 -32.7 -32.8 -35.9 -22.9 -9.5 AEO 2010 -3.8 -9.4 -32.4 -23.5 -13.3 AEO 2011 -0.1 -19.1 -16.1 -9.8 AEO 2012 -0.6 1.8 14.6 AEO 2013 2.0 1.1 AEO 2014 5.1 Average Absolute Percent Difference 5.9 6.3 2.0 9.6 3.1 52.6 16.2 22.8 8.8 7.9 13.8 28.7 42.6 46.8 48.2 57.8 39.8 46.5 54.9 52.8 47.9 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions, "Imported Crude Oil Price" (average imported refiners' acquisition cost for crude oil, "IRAC").

Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.1. Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014.

## Table 3b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per barrel) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 17.06 17.21 18.24 19.43 20.64 22.12 23.76 25.52 27.51 29.67 31.86 34.00 36.05 38.36 40.78 43.29 45.88 48.37 AEO 1995 15.24 17.27 18.23 19.26 20.39 21.59 22.97 24.33 25.79 27.27 28.82 30.38 32.14 33.89 35.85 37.97 40.28 AEO 1996 17.16 17.74 18.59 19.72 20.97 22.34 23.81 25.26 26.72 28.22 29.87 31.51 33.13 34.82 36.61 38.48 40.48 42.55 44.65 AEO 1997 19.99 19.42 19.55 20.07 20.59 21.68 22.71 23.75 24.78 25.87 26.94 28.06 29.19 30.38 31.60 32.94 34.32 35.72 AEO 1998 18.54 18.79 19.87 20.95 21.79 22.53 23.46 24.34 25.27 26.04 27.00 28.02 29.09 30.22 31.43 32.72 34.03 AEO 1999 12.50 13.64 14.67 16.35 17.87 19.64 21.14 22.59 24.20 25.72 26.54 27.42 28.38 29.41 30.52 31.67 AEO 2000 17.35 21.80 20.99 21.52 22.05 22.62 23.23 23.85 24.51 25.17 25.85 26.52 27.22 27.93 28.67 AEO 2001 28.21 24.86 22.82 22.36 23.04 23.65 24.25 24.85 25.43 26.05 26.66 27.28 27.93 28.60 AEO 2002 22.99 21.99 24.00 24.86 25.66 26.50 27.36 28.18 29.03 29.89 30.79 31.80 32.82 AEO 2003 23.65 26.92 25.70 25.40 26.10 26.75 27.39 28.07 28.79 29.61 30.51 31.47 AEO 2004 27.65 24.54 24.45 25.14 25.87 26.65 27.50 28.40 29.42 30.45 31.57 AEO 2005 35.74 35.40 31.78 29.52 28.78 28.43 28.73 29.84 31.01 32.17 AEO 2006 50.97 56.42 54.75 53.19 51.54 49.79 50.73 51.79 52.88 AEO 2007 63.64 62.68 61.40 59.20 56.89 54.85 53.24 52.75 AEO 2008 63.72 75.98 72.58 70.43 68.90 67.16 65.24 AEO 2009 98.58 39.99 50.84 65.08 76.70 87.64 AEO 2010 57.35 69.43 69.54 77.21 85.19 AEO 2011 75.52 82.10 83.37 87.10 AEO 2012 102.10 102.50 111.15 AEO 2013 103.10 99.38 AEO 2014 103.07 Actual in Nominal$ 16.14 15.51 17.14 20.64 18.53 12.04 17.26 27.70 22.00 23.71 27.71 35.90 48.86 59.02 67.04 92.77 59.17 75.86 102.63 101.09 98.11 Average Absolute Difference 0.92 0.98 0.42 1.79 0.76 6.81 3.38 5.70 2.30 2.25 3.40 9.42 20.05 27.05 31.80 52.97 22.34 33.68 55.47 49.54 43.52



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 5.7 10.9 6.4 -5.9 11.4 83.7 37.7 -7.9 25.0 25.1 15.0 -5.3 -26.2 -35.0 -39.2 -53.3 -22.5 -36.2 AEO 1995 -1.8 0.8 -11.7 4.0 69.4 25.1 -17.1 10.6 8.8 -1.6 -19.7 -37.8 -45.5 -49.4 -61.4 -35.8 -46.9 AEO 1996 0.1 -14.0 0.3 63.8 21.5 -19.3 8.2 6.5 -3.6 -21.4 -38.9 -46.6 -50.6 -62.5 -38.1 -49.3 -60.6 -57.9 -54.5 AEO 1997 -3.1 4.8 62.4 16.3 -25.7 -1.5 -4.2 -14.3 -31.0 -47.1 -54.3 -58.1 -68.5 -48.7 -58.3 -67.9 -66.1 -63.6 AEO 1998 0.0 56.1 15.1 -24.4 -1.0 -5.0 -15.3 -32.2 -48.3 -55.9 -59.7 -69.8 -50.8 -60.2 -69.4 -67.6 -65.3 AEO 1999 3.8 -21.0 -47.0 -25.7 -24.6 -29.1 -41.1 -53.8 -59.0 -61.6 -71.4 -53.7 -62.6 -71.3 -69.8 -67.7 AEO 2000 0.5 -21.3 -4.6 -9.2 -20.4 -37.0 -52.5 -59.6 -63.4 -72.9 -56.3 -65.0 -73.5 -72.4 -70.8 AEO 2001 1.8 13.0 -3.7 -19.3 -35.8 -51.6 -58.9 -62.9 -72.6 -56.0 -64.9 -73.4 -72.4 -70.9 AEO 2002 4.5 -7.3 -13.4 -30.8 -47.5 -55.1 -59.2 -69.6 -50.9 -60.6 -70.0 -68.5 -66.5 AEO 2003 -0.3 -2.9 -28.4 -48.0 -55.8 -60.1 -70.5 -52.6 -62.0 -71.1 -69.8 -67.9 AEO 2004 -0.2 -31.7 -50.0 -57.4 -61.4 -71.3 -53.5 -62.6 -71.3 -69.9 -67.8 AEO 2005 -0.4 -27.6 -46.2 -56.0 -69.0 -52.0 -62.1 -70.9 -69.3 -67.2 AEO 2006 4.3 -4.4 -18.3 -42.7 -12.9 -34.4 -50.6 -48.8 -46.1 AEO 2007 7.8 -6.5 -33.8 0.1 -25.0 -46.6 -47.3 -46.2 AEO 2008 -5.0 -18.1 22.7 -7.2 -32.9 -33.6 -33.5 AEO 2009 6.3 -32.4 -33.0 -36.6 -24.1 -10.7 AEO 2010 -3.1 -8.5 -32.2 -23.6 -13.2 AEO 2011 -0.5 -20.0 -17.5 -11.2 AEO 2012 -0.5 1.4 13.3 AEO 2013 2.0 1.3 AEO 2014 5.1 Average Absolute Percent Difference 5.7 6.3 2.4 8.7 4.1 56.5 19.6 20.6 10.5 9.5 12.3 26.2 41.0 45.8 47.4 57.1 37.8 44.4 54.0 49.0 44.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.1.

## Table 4. Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 6450 6566 6643 6723 6811 6880 6957 7059 7125 7205 7296 7377 7446 7523 7596 7665 7712 7775 AEO 1995 6398 6544 6555 6676 6745 6822 6888 6964 7048 7147 7245 7337 7406 7472 7537 7581 7621 AEO 1996 6490 6526 6607 6709 6782 6855 6942 7008 7085 7176 7260 7329 7384 7450 7501 7545 7581 7632 7676 AEO 1997 6636 6694 6826 6953 7074 7183 7267 7369 7461 7548 7643 7731 7793 7833 7884 7924 7961 8004 AEO 1998 6895 6906 7066 7161 7278 7400 7488 7597 7719 7859 7959 8074 8190 8286 8361 8455 8503 AEO 1999 6884 7007 7269 7383 7472 7539 7620 7725 7841 7949 8069 8174 8283 8351 8422 8485 AEO 2000 7056 7141 7266 7363 7452 7578 7694 7815 7926 8028 8113 8217 8288 8381 8482 AEO 2001 7119 7314 7431 7528 7634 7740 7853 7963 8074 8179 8285 8385 8482 8603 AEO 2002 7170 7243 7485 7628 7765 7879 8013 8155 8311 8472 8646 8779 8919 AEO 2003 7143 7237 7364 7477 7634 7812 7998 8186 8390 8575 8755 8920 AEO 2004 7259 7359 7608 7772 7916 8063 8168 8290 8433 8602 8773 AEO 2005 7484 7630 7775 7928 8097 8268 8389 8510 8625 8738 AEO 2006 7601 7723 7742 7842 7956 8094 8220 8329 8420 AEO 2007 7546 7644 7721 7805 7880 7991 8077 8177 AEO 2008 7540 7628 7558 7660 7737 7796 7833 AEO 2009 7071 6851 7229 7333 7380 7400 AEO 2010 6830 7026 7214 7312 7336 AEO 2011 6926 6973 7293 7402 AEO 2012 6909 6951 6881 AEO 2013 6806 6850 AEO 2014 6803

Actual 6291 6467 6469 6701 6796 6905 7125 7211 7172 7213 7312 7588 7593 7551 7548 7136 6852 7001 6892 6767 6921 Average Absolute Difference 158 84 90 102 105 80 176 154 117 135 139 149 126 192 257 701 987 910 1075 1235 1114



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2.5 1.5 2.7 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 7.4 12.6 11.1 AEO 1995 -1.1 1.2 -2.2 -1.8 -2.3 -4.2 -4.5 -2.9 -2.3 -2.3 -4.5 -3.4 -1.9 -1.0 5.6 10.6 8.9 AEO 1996 0.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -4.8 -4.9 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -5.4 -4.4 -2.9 -2.2 4.4 9.5 7.8 10.0 12.8 10.9 AEO 1997 -1.0 -1.5 -1.1 -2.4 -1.9 0.2 0.8 0.8 -1.7 -0.6 1.2 2.4 9.2 14.3 12.6 15.0 17.6 15.7 AEO 1998 1.4 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 1.5 2.6 2.4 0.1 1.7 4.1 5.4 13.1 19.5 18.4 21.3 24.9 22.9 AEO 1999 -0.3 -1.6 0.8 2.9 3.6 3.1 0.4 1.7 3.8 5.3 13.1 19.3 18.3 21.2 24.5 22.6 AEO 2000 -1.0 -1.0 1.3 2.1 1.9 -0.1 1.3 3.5 5.0 12.5 18.4 17.4 20.3 23.8 22.6 AEO 2001 -1.3 2.0 3.0 2.9 0.6 1.9 4.0 5.5 13.1 19.4 18.3 21.7 25.3 24.3 AEO 2002 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.5 2.3 4.4 6.2 14.3 21.3 21.0 25.4 29.7 28.9 AEO 2003 -1.0 -1.0 -2.9 -1.5 1.1 3.5 12.1 19.5 19.8 24.4 29.4 28.9 AEO 2004 -0.7 -3.0 0.2 2.9 4.9 13.0 19.2 18.4 22.4 27.1 26.8 AEO 2005 -1.4 0.5 3.0 5.0 13.5 20.7 19.8 23.5 27.5 26.3 AEO 2006 0.1 2.3 2.6 9.9 16.1 15.6 19.3 23.1 21.7 AEO 2007 -0.1 1.3 8.2 13.9 12.6 15.9 19.4 18.2 AEO 2008 -0.1 6.9 10.3 9.4 12.3 15.2 13.2 AEO 2009 -0.9 0.0 3.3 6.4 9.0 6.9 AEO 2010 -0.3 0.4 4.7 8.0 6.0 AEO 2011 -1.1 1.2 7.8 6.9 AEO 2012 0.3 2.7 -0.6 AEO 2013 0.6 -1.0 AEO 2014 -1.7 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.5 3.4 9.8 14.4 13.0 15.6 18.2 16.1 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 3.1.

## Table 5. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2508 2373 2256 2161 2088 2022 1953 1891 1851 1825 1799 1781 1767 1759 1778 1789 1807 1862 AEO 1995 2402 2307 2205 2095 2037 1967 1953 1924 1916 1905 1894 1883 1887 1887 1920 1945 1967 AEO 1996 2387 2310 2248 2172 2113 2062 2011 1978 1953 1938 1916 1920 1927 1949 1971 1986 2000 2018 2055 AEO 1997 2362 2307 2245 2197 2143 2091 2055 2033 2015 2004 1997 1989 1982 1975 1967 1949 1942 1935 AEO 1998 2340 2332 2291 2252 2220 2192 2169 2145 2125 2104 2087 2068 2050 2033 2016 1995 1974 AEO 1999 2340 2309 2296 2265 2207 2171 2141 2122 2114 2092 2074 2057 2040 2025 2010 1992 AEO 2000 2193 2181 2122 2063 2016 1980 1957 1939 1920 1904 1894 1889 1889 1890 1897 AEO 2001 2152 2161 2204 2193 2111 2062 1995 1957 1934 1901 1879 1848 1850 1852 AEO 2002 2133 2135 2074 2008 1962 1944 1943 1913 1880 1855 1842 1848 1912 AEO 2003 2149 2121 2065 2038 2193 2210 2170 2119 2054 2020 1990 1949 AEO 2004 2076 2116 2139 2166 2222 2231 2209 2166 2124 2085 2065 AEO 2005 2059 2124 2200 2221 2243 2257 2198 2152 2123 2081 AEO 2006 1944 2008 2023 2061 2133 2146 2132 2140 2144 AEO 2007 1861 2001 2058 2074 2068 2086 2104 2079 AEO 2008 1862 1876 2064 2165 2166 2168 2192 AEO 2009 1809 1955 2015 2024 2039 2033 AEO 2010 1913 1936 1980 1999 2079 AEO 2011 2011 1993 1962 2037 AEO 2012 2033 2094 2154 AEO 2013 2312 2492 AEO 2014 2819

Actual 2499 2431 2394 2366 2355 2282 2147 2131 2118 2097 2062 1991 1891 1857 1853 1830 1953 2001 2060 2378 2720 Average Absolute Difference 9 44 78 107 139 127 116 107 101 105 94 92 133 163 165 177 104 86 86 346 639



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 0.3 -2.4 -5.8 -8.7 -11.3 -11.4 -9.0 -11.3 -12.6 -13.0 -12.7 -10.6 -6.6 -5.3 -4.1 -2.3 -7.5 -7.0 AEO 1995 -1.2 -3.7 -6.8 -11.0 -10.7 -8.4 -8.4 -9.2 -8.6 -7.6 -4.9 -0.4 1.6 1.8 4.9 -0.4 -1.7 AEO 1996 -0.3 -2.3 -4.5 -4.8 -1.6 -3.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.3 -2.7 1.3 3.4 4.0 6.5 0.9 -0.8 -2.9 -15.1 -24.4 AEO 1997 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 2.4 0.6 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 6.0 7.5 7.3 8.3 1.1 -1.7 -5.4 -18.3 -28.9 AEO 1998 -0.6 2.2 6.7 5.7 4.8 4.5 5.2 7.7 12.3 13.3 12.6 13.0 5.0 1.6 -2.2 -16.1 -27.4 AEO 1999 2.5 7.6 7.8 7.0 5.3 5.3 7.5 12.2 13.8 12.9 13.3 5.3 2.0 -1.7 -15.5 -26.8 AEO 2000 2.1 2.4 0.2 -1.6 -2.3 -0.6 3.5 4.4 3.6 4.0 -3.0 -5.6 -8.3 -20.5 -30.3 AEO 2001 1.0 2.1 5.1 6.4 6.0 9.0 7.4 5.6 5.7 -2.6 -6.1 -10.3 -22.2 -31.9 AEO 2002 0.7 1.9 0.6 0.9 3.7 4.7 4.9 4.5 -3.7 -7.3 -10.6 -22.3 -29.7 AEO 2003 2.5 2.9 3.7 7.8 18.1 19.3 18.6 8.5 2.6 -1.9 -16.3 -28.3 AEO 2004 0.7 6.3 13.1 16.6 19.9 21.9 13.2 8.2 3.1 -12.3 -24.1 AEO 2005 3.4 12.3 18.5 19.9 22.6 15.6 9.9 4.4 -10.7 -23.5 AEO 2006 2.8 8.1 9.2 12.7 9.3 7.3 3.5 -10.0 -21.2 AEO 2007 0.2 8.0 12.5 6.2 3.3 1.2 -11.5 -23.5 AEO 2008 0.5 2.5 5.7 8.2 5.1 -8.8 -19.4 AEO 2009 -1.1 0.1 0.7 -1.7 -14.3 -25.2 AEO 2010 -2.0 -3.2 -3.9 -15.9 -23.6 AEO 2011 0.5 -3.3 -17.5 -25.1 AEO 2012 -1.3 -11.9 -20.8 AEO 2013 -2.8 -8.4 AEO 2014 3.6 Average Absolute Percent Difference 0.3 1.8 3.2 4.5 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.6 7.0 8.8 8.9 9.7 5.3 4.3 4.2 14.6 23.5 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 3.1.

## Table 6. Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2935 3201 3362 3504 3657 3738 3880 3993 4099 4212 4303 4398 4475 4541 4584 4639 4668 4672 AEO 1995 2953 3157 3281 3489 3610 3741 3818 3920 4000 4103 4208 4303 4362 4420 4442 4460 4460 AEO 1996 3011 3106 3219 3398 3519 3679 3807 3891 3979 4070 4165 4212 4260 4289 4303 4322 4325 4347 4344 AEO 1997 3099 3245 3497 3665 3825 3975 4084 4190 4285 4380 4464 4552 4617 4654 4709 4760 4803 4844 AEO 1998 3303 3391 3654 3713 3876 4053 4137 4298 4415 4556 4639 4750 4910 4992 5087 5221 5240 AEO 1999 3380 3442 3888 4022 4153 4238 4336 4441 4545 4652 4780 4888 4999 5073 5144 5215 AEO 2000 3599 3847 4036 4187 4320 4465 4579 4690 4780 4882 4968 5055 5113 5192 5276 AEO 2001 3711 3996 4028 4114 4290 4435 4607 4747 4858 4974 5083 5198 5276 5369 AEO 2002 3850 3992 4191 4395 4561 4653 4749 4903 5068 5211 5360 5468 5521 AEO 2003 3778 4052 4056 4196 4187 4337 4534 4766 5024 5228 5419 5612 AEO 2004 4012 4164 4207 4331 4398 4521 4641 4806 4989 5181 5362 AEO 2005 4255 4346 4306 4420 4555 4693 4881 5038 5173 5317 AEO 2006 4545 4537 4366 4397 4415 4502 4577 4643 4688 AEO 2007 4553 4295 4224 4229 4304 4348 4403 4513 AEO 2008 4416 4556 4220 4158 4187 4222 4220 AEO 2009 4037 3628 3688 3732 3755 3763 AEO 2010 3659 3659 3783 3839 3766 AEO 2011 3478 3506 3695 3705 AEO 2012 3136 3215 3109 AEO 2013 2775 2642 AEO 2014 2324

Actual 2780 2940 2878 3110 3343 3564 3618 3813 3979 3849 4102 4427 4580 4523 4393 4068 3528 3446 3084 2706 2277 Average Absolute Difference 154 137 298 145 144 135 109 80 78 203 95 165 192 127 156 498 1010 1110 1471 1837 2188



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 5.5 8.9 16.8 12.7 9.4 4.9 7.2 4.7 3.0 9.4 4.9 -0.7 -2.3 0.4 4.4 14.1 32.3 35.6 AEO 1995 0.4 9.7 5.5 4.4 1.3 3.4 0.1 -1.5 3.9 0.0 -4.9 -6.0 -3.6 0.6 9.2 26.4 29.4 AEO 1996 4.6 -0.1 -3.7 -4.6 -2.7 -3.5 -4.3 1.1 -3.0 -8.1 -9.1 -6.9 -3.0 5.4 22.0 25.4 40.2 60.7 90.8 AEO 1997 -0.4 -2.9 -1.9 1.3 0.3 -0.1 6.1 2.2 -3.2 -4.4 -1.3 3.6 13.5 31.9 36.6 54.3 77.5 112.7 AEO 1998 -1.2 -4.9 1.0 -2.6 -2.6 5.3 0.9 -2.9 -3.6 0.7 5.6 16.8 39.1 44.9 64.9 93.0 130.2 AEO 1999 -5.2 -4.9 2.0 1.1 7.9 3.3 -2.1 -3.0 0.5 5.9 17.5 38.5 45.1 64.5 90.1 129.0 AEO 2000 -0.5 0.9 1.5 8.8 5.3 0.9 0.0 3.7 8.8 20.0 40.8 46.7 65.8 91.9 131.7 AEO 2001 -2.7 0.4 4.6 0.3 -3.1 -3.2 1.9 8.1 19.4 41.0 47.5 68.5 95.0 135.8 AEO 2002 -3.2 3.7 2.2 -0.7 -0.4 2.9 8.1 20.5 43.6 51.2 73.8 102.1 142.5 AEO 2003 -1.9 -1.2 -8.4 -8.4 -7.4 -1.3 11.5 35.1 45.8 69.5 100.3 146.5 AEO 2004 -2.2 -6.0 -8.1 -4.2 0.1 11.1 31.5 39.5 61.7 91.5 135.5 AEO 2005 -3.9 -5.1 -4.8 0.6 12.0 33.0 41.6 63.3 91.2 133.5 AEO 2006 -0.8 0.3 -0.6 8.1 25.1 30.7 48.4 71.6 105.9 AEO 2007 0.7 -2.2 3.9 19.9 24.9 41.0 62.7 98.2 AEO 2008 0.5 12.0 19.6 20.7 35.8 56.0 85.4 AEO 2009 -0.7 2.8 7.0 21.0 38.8 65.3 AEO 2010 3.7 6.2 22.7 41.9 65.4 AEO 2011 0.9 13.7 36.6 62.7 AEO 2012 1.7 18.8 36.6 AEO 2013 2.6 16.0 AEO 2014 2.1 Average Absolute Percent Difference 5.5 4.7 10.4 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.1 2.0 5.3 2.3 3.7 4.2 2.8 3.6 12.2 28.6 32.2 47.7 67.9 96.1 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 3.1.

### Table 7a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) 

### AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1992 2.44 2.48 2.57 2.66 2.70 2.79 2.84 2.92 3.04 3.16 3.25 3.36 3.51 3.60 3.77 3.91 3.97 4.08 AEO 1995 1993 2.39 2.48 2.42 2.45 2.45 2.53 2.59 2.78 2.91 3.10 3.24 3.38 3.47 3.53 3.61 3.68 3.73 AEO 1996 1994 2.04 2.10 2.05 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.26 2.26 2.30 2.33 2.40 2.44 2.53 2.63 2.71 AEO 1997 1995 2.42 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.22 2.25 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.31 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.34 2.36 2.37 AEO 1998 1996 2.67 2.43 2.43 2.48 2.53 2.55 2.55 2.60 2.63 2.68 2.73 2.77 2.81 2.84 2.89 2.90 2.93 AEO 1999 1997 2.42 2.60 2.62 2.67 2.74 2.80 2.87 2.94 3.00 3.03 3.04 3.06 3.08 3.10 3.11 3.12 AEO 2000 1998 2.48 2.59 2.59 2.62 2.65 2.72 2.79 2.88 2.95 3.01 3.05 3.08 3.11 3.14 3.16 AEO 2001 1999 3.90 3.79 3.27 2.99 2.88 2.88 2.91 2.93 2.96 2.99 3.03 3.06 3.09 3.14 AEO 2002 2000 4.39 2.59 2.92 3.12 3.19 3.22 3.26 3.31 3.34 3.38 3.46 3.52 3.57 AEO 2003 2001 3.07 3.42 3.29 3.27 3.24 3.32 3.48 3.62 3.79 3.88 3.98 4.04 AEO 2004 2002 5.62 4.50 4.18 4.10 4.14 4.23 4.11 4.04 4.19 4.36 4.54 AEO 2005 2003 5.98 5.92 5.27 4.83 4.50 4.39 4.27 4.31 4.41 4.54 AEO 2006 2004 8.09 7.24 6.54 6.22 5.77 5.46 5.26 5.24 5.36 AEO 2007 2005 6.97 7.12 7.07 6.53 6.22 5.83 5.69 5.50 AEO 2008 2006 6.90 7.24 7.40 6.96 6.65 6.49 6.25 AEO 2009 2007 8.87 4.56 5.13 5.45 5.52 5.54 AEO 2010 2008 4.14 4.85 5.82 6.17 5.94 AEO 2011 2009 5.07 4.72 4.65 4.64 AEO 2012 2010 4.66 4.35 4.42 AEO 2013 2011 3.32 3.72 AEO 2014 2012 4.32 Actual in Nominal$ 2.61 2.28 2.02 2.69 2.78 2.40 2.62 4.38 4.61 3.68 5.57 6.11 8.47 7.11 7.31 9.26 4.93 5.27 4.89 3.54 4.49 Average Absolute Difference 0.11 0.23 0.43 0.25 0.29 0.20 0.20 1.36 1.29 0.62 1.96 2.14 3.67 2.32 2.15 3.37 0.90 0.81 0.74 1.43 0.99



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -4.3 13.7 35.8 7.5 7.4 29.9 23.0 -22.6 -21.7 3.5 -28.3 -30.6 -46.0 -32.0 -28.9 -40.6 14.1 11.0 AEO 1995 7.1 28.0 -4.5 -4.8 11.4 7.0 -33.0 -30.1 -6.9 -33.2 -34.6 -49.2 -36.0 -34.9 -46.4 3.3 -0.8 AEO 1996 3.2 -19.0 -21.9 -2.8 -9.4 -44.5 -45.6 -30.5 -53.0 -55.7 -66.8 -59.1 -58.5 -66.1 -34.2 -36.5 -27.5 5.8 -12.8 AEO 1997 -8.4 -18.7 -4.9 -11.3 -45.7 -47.3 -32.0 -53.5 -56.0 -67.1 -59.5 -59.1 -66.9 -37.0 -40.7 -34.3 -6.8 -25.1 AEO 1998 -2.4 4.2 -3.1 -39.5 -40.0 -23.1 -48.1 -50.6 -62.8 -53.5 -52.6 -61.2 -25.6 -28.8 -20.5 12.5 -9.3 AEO 1999 1.9 2.0 -37.1 -37.7 -18.8 -44.1 -46.4 -59.1 -48.8 -48.3 -58.2 -20.5 -24.2 -16.1 18.3 -5.1 AEO 2000 -3.8 -38.5 -40.4 -23.3 -47.8 -49.7 -61.6 -51.3 -50.1 -59.1 -21.6 -25.1 -16.8 18.1 -4.7 AEO 2001 -8.8 -13.9 -5.5 -41.8 -47.6 -60.9 -51.5 -51.3 -60.3 -24.2 -27.4 -19.3 14.8 -6.8 AEO 2002 -2.6 -26.9 -44.4 -44.4 -57.6 -47.5 -47.0 -56.6 -17.2 -20.7 -10.7 27.8 3.7 AEO 2003 -15.2 -36.5 -42.7 -57.6 -48.5 -47.3 -55.4 -12.4 -13.1 -2.2 41.1 14.6 AEO 2004 3.0 -22.8 -46.6 -35.7 -35.2 -46.6 -1.9 -8.7 4.1 52.4 27.0 AEO 2005 0.6 -25.9 -19.0 -25.8 -44.4 2.6 -5.4 4.9 51.2 24.4 AEO 2006 -1.4 8.4 -2.2 -25.1 31.4 17.7 24.8 74.8 42.9 AEO 2007 1.1 3.0 -17.7 43.9 29.9 33.9 83.8 42.1 AEO 2008 -3.1 -18.1 58.3 41.1 48.3 103.3 56.6 AEO 2009 -2.3 -5.1 1.2 18.4 68.4 35.3 AEO 2010 -15.5 -6.2 23.9 84.7 42.3 AEO 2011 -2.6 -0.3 38.1 10.3 AEO 2012 -2.6 27.8 3.9 AEO 2013 -4.5 -14.5 AEO 2014 -2.3 Average Absolute Percent Difference 4.3 10.4 22.3 9.8 11.0 9.2 8.5 33.7 31.1 18.6 39.4 40.1 51.0 39.4 36.5 45.3 21.7 18.9 18.2 42.9 21.2

Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions.

Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.10. Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014.

## Table 7b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2.49 2.60 2.76 2.93 3.05 3.24 3.39 3.60 3.86 4.15 4.40 4.70 5.08 5.39 5.85 6.27 6.59 7.01 AEO 1995 2.44 2.61 2.61 2.70 2.78 2.95 3.11 3.44 3.72 4.10 4.43 4.78 5.07 5.33 5.64 5.95 6.23 AEO 1996 2.08 2.19 2.20 2.39 2.47 2.54 2.64 2.74 2.84 2.95 3.09 3.21 3.37 3.54 3.76 3.96 4.26 4.57 4.87 AEO 1997 2.48 2.29 2.34 2.41 2.47 2.54 2.65 2.77 2.89 3.00 3.10 3.24 3.37 3.51 3.60 3.76 3.92 4.07 AEO 1998 2.72 2.54 2.60 2.72 2.85 2.95 3.03 3.16 3.29 3.45 3.62 3.79 3.96 4.13 4.33 4.50 4.69 AEO 1999 2.45 2.68 2.76 2.87 3.02 3.15 3.29 3.45 3.60 3.72 3.84 3.96 4.10 4.25 4.39 4.55 AEO 2000 2.52 2.67 2.71 2.79 2.88 3.02 3.16 3.34 3.50 3.64 3.77 3.89 4.01 4.13 4.25 AEO 2001 3.99 3.96 3.48 3.25 3.20 3.27 3.38 3.45 3.57 3.67 3.78 3.89 4.00 4.14 AEO 2002 4.49 2.70 3.13 3.44 3.61 3.74 3.88 4.04 4.18 4.32 4.53 4.74 4.94 AEO 2003 3.12 3.56 3.51 3.57 3.60 3.76 4.02 4.26 4.55 4.76 5.00 5.21 AEO 2004 5.71 4.64 4.39 4.39 4.53 4.74 4.71 4.75 5.06 5.41 5.80 AEO 2005 6.11 6.17 5.58 5.21 4.95 4.93 4.91 5.07 5.33 5.61 AEO 2006 8.29 7.58 6.96 6.76 6.40 6.18 6.10 6.23 6.53 AEO 2007 7.18 7.50 7.58 7.13 6.91 6.60 6.56 6.44 AEO 2008 7.08 7.56 7.86 7.52 7.31 7.26 7.11 AEO 2009 9.07 4.70 5.32 5.73 5.87 5.99 AEO 2010 4.20 4.99 6.07 6.53 6.40 AEO 2011 5.12 4.82 4.81 4.87 AEO 2012 4.76 4.51 4.61 AEO 2013 3.38 3.85 AEO 2014 4.39 Actual in Nominal$ 2.61 2.28 2.02 2.69 2.78 2.40 2.62 4.38 4.61 3.68 5.57 6.11 8.47 7.11 7.31 9.26 4.93 5.27 4.89 3.54 4.49 Average Absolute Difference 0.12 0.24 0.46 0.26 0.30 0.24 0.24 1.40 1.35 0.65 2.07 2.33 4.23 2.71 2.60 4.11 1.11 1.04 0.78 1.54 0.87



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -4.4 13.9 36.6 8.8 9.7 34.9 29.5 -17.9 -16.2 12.7 -20.9 -23.0 -40.0 -24.1 -20.0 -32.3 33.7 33.0 AEO 1995 7.2 29.2 -2.9 -2.7 15.6 12.5 -29.0 -25.3 1.2 -26.4 -27.5 -43.6 -28.6 -27.1 -39.1 20.6 18.2 AEO 1996 3.2 -18.5 -21.0 -0.3 -5.9 -42.0 -42.7 -25.6 -49.1 -51.7 -63.6 -54.9 -53.9 -61.8 -23.8 -24.8 -12.9 29.2 8.5 AEO 1997 -7.8 -17.8 -2.5 -8.1 -43.5 -44.9 -28.0 -50.2 -52.7 -64.6 -56.4 -55.7 -63.6 -28.9 -31.7 -23.2 10.8 -9.2 AEO 1998 -2.0 5.9 -0.7 -37.8 -38.2 -19.8 -45.6 -48.2 -61.2 -51.5 -50.5 -59.1 -19.6 -21.6 -11.5 27.2 4.5 AEO 1999 1.9 2.3 -37.1 -37.7 -18.0 -43.4 -46.1 -59.3 -49.4 -49.0 -58.5 -19.7 -22.1 -13.0 24.1 1.3 AEO 2000 -4.0 -39.1 -41.3 -24.2 -48.3 -50.6 -62.7 -53.0 -52.2 -60.7 -23.6 -26.3 -18.1 16.6 -5.3 AEO 2001 -8.9 -14.1 -5.3 -41.6 -47.7 -61.4 -52.5 -52.8 -61.5 -25.6 -28.3 -20.5 13.1 -7.8 AEO 2002 -2.6 -26.7 -43.8 -43.8 -57.4 -47.4 -46.9 -56.4 -15.3 -17.9 -7.3 34.0 10.0 AEO 2003 -15.3 -36.1 -42.5 -57.9 -49.3 -48.5 -56.6 -13.6 -13.7 -2.7 41.2 15.9 AEO 2004 2.4 -24.1 -48.2 -38.2 -38.1 -48.9 -4.4 -9.8 3.5 52.9 29.2 AEO 2005 0.0 -27.2 -21.5 -28.7 -46.6 0.0 -6.8 3.7 50.5 24.9 AEO 2006 -2.1 6.5 -4.8 -27.0 29.8 17.3 24.7 76.0 45.5 AEO 2007 1.0 2.5 -18.1 44.6 31.2 34.9 85.2 43.5 AEO 2008 -3.1 -18.3 59.5 42.8 49.6 105.0 58.2 AEO 2009 -2.1 -4.6 1.0 17.1 65.7 33.5 AEO 2010 -14.8 -5.3 24.2 84.5 42.5 AEO 2011 -2.9 -1.4 35.7 8.6 AEO 2012 -2.6 27.3 2.7 AEO 2013 -4.5 -14.3 AEO 2014 -2.3 Average Absolute Percent Difference 4.4 10.5 23.0 9.5 10.6 10.2 9.0 31.9 29.2 17.7 37.1 38.2 49.9 38.2 35.6 44.4 22.5 19.7 15.9 43.5 19.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.10.

## Table 8. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 19.87 20.21 20.64 20.99 21.20 21.42 21.60 21.99 22.37 22.63 22.95 23.22 23.58 23.82 24.09 24.13 24.02 24.14 AEO 1995 20.82 20.66 20.85 21.21 21.65 21.95 22.12 22.25 22.43 22.62 22.87 23.08 23.36 23.61 24.08 24.23 24.59 AEO 1996 21.32 21.64 22.11 22.21 22.26 22.34 22.46 22.74 23.14 23.63 24.08 24.25 24.63 25.11 25.56 26.00 26.63 27.21 27.61 AEO 1997 22.15 22.75 23.24 23.64 23.86 24.13 24.65 25.34 25.82 26.22 26.52 27.00 27.35 27.70 28.01 28.47 28.90 29.31 AEO 1998 21.84 23.03 23.84 24.08 24.44 24.81 25.33 25.72 26.22 26.65 27.22 27.84 28.35 28.84 29.17 29.62 30.06 AEO 1999 21.35 22.36 22.54 23.18 23.65 24.17 24.57 25.19 25.77 26.41 26.92 27.42 28.02 28.50 29.12 29.53 AEO 2000 21.46 22.36 22.19 22.42 22.92 23.27 23.91 24.53 25.25 25.84 26.22 26.95 27.47 27.98 28.50 AEO 2001 22.00 22.67 23.55 24.37 24.96 25.24 25.70 26.01 26.59 27.24 28.05 28.61 29.33 30.04 AEO 2002 22.22 23.89 24.73 25.20 25.50 26.00 26.43 26.96 27.46 28.13 28.93 29.59 30.15 AEO 2003 23.20 24.00 24.48 24.60 24.98 25.21 25.98 26.52 27.06 27.68 28.32 28.71 AEO 2004 22.09 23.17 23.53 24.04 24.50 25.12 25.43 26.15 26.71 27.18 27.51 AEO 2005 22.14 22.32 22.64 23.07 23.95 24.64 25.44 26.23 26.83 27.28 AEO 2006 22.21 22.17 22.38 22.87 23.05 23.35 23.84 24.43 24.93 AEO 2007 21.72 22.68 23.40 23.77 24.02 24.18 24.57 24.80 AEO 2008 22.90 23.12 23.31 23.25 23.37 23.54 23.35 AEO 2009 23.04 22.55 21.89 21.45 21.11 21.10 AEO 2010 22.59 22.51 21.99 21.82 21.32 AEO 2011 23.83 23.86 23.91 24.44 AEO 2012 24.52 25.20 24.35 AEO 2013 25.63 25.30 AEO 2014 25.65

Actual 20.79 21.25 22.21 22.61 22.74 22.25 22.41 23.33 22.24 23.03 22.28 22.40 22.01 21.70 23.10 23.28 22.91 24.09 24.48 25.53 26.04 Average Absolute Difference 0.92 0.73 1.33 1.20 0.92 0.69 0.72 0.99 0.65 0.75 1.54 1.73 2.27 2.74 1.84 1.97 2.47 2.11 2.46 2.39 2.50



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -4.4 -4.9 -7.1 -7.2 -6.8 -3.7 -3.6 -5.8 0.6 -1.7 3.0 3.6 7.1 9.8 4.3 3.7 4.8 0.2 AEO 1995 -2.0 -7.0 -7.8 -6.7 -2.7 -2.0 -5.2 0.1 -2.6 1.5 2.1 4.8 7.7 2.2 3.4 5.8 2.1 AEO 1996 -4.0 -4.3 -2.8 -0.2 -0.6 -4.3 1.0 -1.2 3.9 5.5 9.4 11.8 6.6 7.9 11.6 7.9 8.8 6.6 6.0 AEO 1997 -2.0 0.1 4.5 5.5 2.3 8.5 7.0 13.8 15.3 19.1 22.2 16.9 17.5 20.9 16.3 16.3 13.2 12.6 AEO 1998 -3.9 3.5 6.4 3.2 9.9 7.7 13.7 14.8 19.1 22.8 17.8 19.6 23.7 19.7 19.2 16.0 15.5 AEO 1999 -4.0 -0.2 -3.4 4.2 2.7 8.5 9.7 14.4 18.7 14.3 15.6 19.7 16.3 16.4 14.0 13.4 AEO 2000 -4.2 -4.2 -0.2 -2.6 2.9 3.9 8.6 13.1 9.3 11.0 14.4 11.9 12.2 9.6 9.5 AEO 2001 -5.7 1.9 2.3 9.4 11.4 14.7 18.4 12.6 14.2 18.9 16.4 16.9 14.9 15.4 AEO 2002 -0.1 3.7 11.0 12.5 15.8 19.8 14.4 15.8 19.9 16.8 18.2 15.9 15.8 AEO 2003 0.8 7.7 9.3 11.8 15.1 9.1 11.6 15.7 12.3 13.1 10.9 10.3 AEO 2004 -0.8 3.4 6.9 10.8 6.0 7.9 11.0 8.6 9.1 6.4 5.7 AEO 2005 -1.2 1.4 4.3 -0.1 2.9 7.5 5.6 7.1 5.1 4.8 AEO 2006 0.9 2.2 -3.1 -1.7 0.6 -3.0 -2.6 -4.3 -4.3 AEO 2007 0.1 -1.8 0.5 3.7 -0.3 -1.2 -3.8 -4.7 AEO 2008 -0.9 -0.7 1.8 -3.5 -4.5 -7.8 -10.3 AEO 2009 -1.0 -1.6 -9.1 -12.4 -17.3 -19.0 AEO 2010 -1.4 -6.5 -10.2 -14.6 -18.1 AEO 2011 -1.1 -2.5 -6.4 -6.1 AEO 2012 0.2 -1.3 -6.5 AEO 2013 0.4 -2.8 AEO 2014 -1.5 Average Absolute Percent Difference 4.4 3.4 6.0 5.3 4.0 3.1 3.2 4.2 2.9 3.2 6.9 7.7 10.3 12.6 8.0 8.5 10.8 8.8 10.1 9.4 9.6 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 4.1.

## Table 9. Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 17.71 17.68 17.84 18.12 18.25 18.43 18.58 18.93 19.28 19.51 19.80 19.92 20.13 20.18 20.38 20.35 20.16 20.19 AEO 1995 18.28 17.98 17.92 18.21 18.63 18.92 19.08 19.20 19.36 19.52 19.75 19.94 20.17 20.28 20.60 20.59 20.88 AEO 1996 18.90 19.15 19.52 19.59 19.59 19.65 19.73 19.97 20.36 20.82 21.25 21.37 21.68 22.11 22.47 22.83 23.36 23.81 24.11 AEO 1997 19.10 19.70 20.17 20.32 20.54 20.77 21.26 21.90 22.31 22.66 22.93 23.38 23.68 23.99 24.25 24.65 25.03 25.37 AEO 1998 18.85 19.06 20.35 20.27 20.60 20.94 21.44 21.81 22.25 22.65 23.18 23.75 24.23 24.70 24.97 25.34 25.70 AEO 1999 18.80 19.13 19.28 19.82 20.23 20.77 21.05 21.57 21.98 22.47 22.85 23.26 23.77 24.15 24.69 25.02 AEO 2000 18.36 18.89 18.47 18.50 18.88 19.15 19.70 20.27 20.90 21.42 21.74 22.46 22.92 23.35 23.82 AEO 2001 18.61 18.89 19.67 20.28 20.65 20.81 21.11 21.34 21.81 22.36 23.14 23.60 24.19 24.81 AEO 2002 19.28 19.54 20.20 20.52 20.73 21.25 21.70 22.29 22.80 23.48 24.21 24.75 25.26 AEO 2003 19.37 19.99 20.15 20.14 20.43 20.51 21.09 21.46 21.88 22.39 22.91 23.22 AEO 2004 19.57 19.51 19.58 19.66 19.95 20.21 20.25 20.50 20.80 21.11 21.30 AEO 2005 18.91 19.27 19.24 19.49 19.90 20.44 20.42 20.91 21.17 21.07 AEO 2006 18.14 18.16 18.00 18.38 18.47 18.58 18.92 19.13 19.59 AEO 2007 18.57 19.12 19.41 19.41 19.35 19.22 19.45 19.30 AEO 2008 19.00 19.18 19.28 19.29 19.26 19.40 19.41 AEO 2009 20.48 20.61 20.02 19.81 19.59 19.45 AEO 2010 20.60 20.01 19.46 19.28 18.90 AEO 2011 21.28 21.06 21.27 21.73 AEO 2012 22.95 23.66 22.76 AEO 2013 23.91 24.00 AEO 2014 24.19

Actual 18.10 18.82 18.60 18.85 18.90 19.02 18.83 19.18 19.62 18.93 19.10 18.59 18.05 18.50 19.27 20.16 20.62 21.32 22.90 24.06 24.28 Average Absolute Difference 0.39 0.84 0.56 0.55 0.56 0.49 0.70 0.53 0.60 0.99 1.19 1.79 2.42 2.12 1.72 1.41 1.36 1.59 1.88 2.13 2.20



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -2.1 -6.1 -4.1 -3.9 -3.5 -3.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.7 3.1 3.7 7.1 11.5 9.1 5.8 0.9 -2.2 -5.3 AEO 1995 -2.9 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 -2.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 2.3 2.2 6.2 10.5 9.0 5.3 2.2 -0.2 -2.0 AEO 1996 1.6 1.6 3.3 3.0 4.0 2.4 0.6 5.5 6.6 12.0 17.7 15.5 12.5 9.7 9.0 7.1 2.0 -1.0 -0.7 AEO 1997 1.3 4.2 6.0 7.9 7.1 5.9 12.3 14.7 20.0 25.5 23.9 21.4 17.5 16.3 13.8 7.6 4.0 4.5 AEO 1998 -0.3 0.2 8.1 5.7 5.0 10.7 12.3 17.3 23.3 22.4 20.3 17.8 17.5 15.9 9.0 5.3 5.8 AEO 1999 -1.2 1.6 0.5 1.0 6.9 8.7 13.2 19.5 18.8 16.6 13.4 12.8 11.5 5.5 2.6 3.0 AEO 2000 -2.5 -1.5 -5.9 -2.2 -1.1 3.0 9.1 9.5 8.5 6.3 5.4 5.4 0.1 -2.9 -1.9 AEO 2001 -3.0 -3.7 3.9 6.2 11.1 15.3 14.1 10.8 8.2 8.4 8.6 3.0 0.6 2.2 AEO 2002 -1.7 3.2 5.7 10.4 14.8 14.9 12.6 10.6 10.6 10.2 5.7 2.9 4.0 AEO 2003 2.3 4.7 8.4 11.6 10.4 6.5 4.6 4.1 2.6 -2.2 -4.8 -4.4 AEO 2004 2.4 4.9 8.5 6.3 3.6 0.3 -1.8 -3.8 -9.2 -12.2 -12.3 AEO 2005 1.7 6.8 4.0 1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -4.2 -8.7 -12.0 -13.2 AEO 2006 0.5 -1.9 -6.6 -8.8 -10.4 -12.8 -17.4 -20.5 -19.3 AEO 2007 0.4 -0.7 -3.7 -5.9 -9.2 -16.1 -19.2 -20.5 AEO 2008 -1.4 -4.9 -6.5 -9.5 -15.9 -19.3 -20.1 AEO 2009 1.6 -0.1 -6.1 -13.5 -18.6 -19.9 AEO 2010 -0.1 -6.1 -15.0 -19.8 -22.2 AEO 2011 -0.2 -8.1 -11.6 -10.5 AEO 2012 0.2 -1.7 -6.3 AEO 2013 -0.6 -1.2 AEO 2014 -0.4 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.1 4.5 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 3.7 2.8 3.1 5.2 6.2 9.6 13.4 11.4 8.9 7.0 6.6 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.1 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 4.1, Dry Natural Gas Production.

## Table 10. Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.16 3.31 3.50 3.57 3.63 3.74 3.85 AEO 1995 2.46 2.54 2.80 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.03 3.19 3.35 3.51 3.60 AEO 1996 2.56 2.75 2.85 2.88 2.93 2.98 3.02 3.06 3.07 3.09 3.12 3.17 3.23 3.29 3.37 3.46 3.56 3.68 3.79 AEO 1997 2.82 2.96 3.16 3.43 3.46 3.50 3.53 3.58 3.64 3.69 3.74 3.78 3.83 3.87 3.92 3.97 4.04 4.11 AEO 1998 2.95 3.19 3.53 3.84 3.87 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.02 4.06 4.11 4.16 4.22 4.28 4.34 4.42 4.51 AEO 1999 2.92 3.16 3.29 3.41 3.44 3.47 3.59 3.68 3.85 4.00 4.12 4.21 4.35 4.45 4.52 4.61 AEO 2000 3.42 3.65 3.85 4.00 4.10 4.14 4.19 4.24 4.32 4.38 4.45 4.52 4.57 4.64 4.70 AEO 2001 3.51 3.76 3.88 4.07 4.33 4.48 4.65 4.74 4.86 4.97 5.06 5.16 5.26 5.36 AEO 2002 3.68 3.74 4.04 4.31 4.50 4.58 4.68 4.72 4.80 4.89 4.97 5.06 5.13 AEO 2003 3.17 3.32 3.67 3.86 3.98 4.17 4.41 4.62 4.78 4.88 5.01 5.08 AEO 2004 3.51 3.60 3.87 4.28 4.43 4.78 5.04 5.50 5.76 5.90 6.05 AEO 2005 3.28 3.37 3.64 3.75 4.13 4.20 4.94 5.16 5.50 6.05 AEO 2006 3.39 3.65 4.00 4.09 4.16 4.35 4.49 4.86 4.90 AEO 2007 3.29 3.43 3.87 4.24 4.55 4.84 5.00 5.38 AEO 2008 3.80 3.85 3.95 3.85 4.01 4.02 3.83 AEO 2009 3.03 2.73 2.34 1.99 1.76 1.79 AEO 2010 2.76 2.82 2.78 2.62 2.36 AEO 2011 2.74 2.75 2.64 2.72 AEO 2012 1.90 1.64 1.59 AEO 2013 1.72 1.69 AEO 2014 1.34

Actual 2.21 2.46 2.69 2.78 2.84 2.99 3.42 3.54 3.60 3.50 3.26 3.40 3.61 3.46 3.79 3.02 2.68 2.60 1.96 1.52 1.31 Average Absolute Difference 0.19 0.03 0.10 0.03 0.06 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.43 0.43 0.40 0.50 0.40 1.01 1.37 1.52 2.14 2.50 2.63



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -8.6 -2.5 -1.0 -1.6 -1.0 -4.8 -15.5 -17.2 -18.1 -15.1 -8.1 -7.2 -8.4 1.1 -5.7 20.2 39.6 47.9 AEO 1995 -0.1 -5.5 0.6 1.2 -4.1 -15.5 -18.0 -19.5 -16.6 -9.6 -12.8 -17.0 -12.5 -15.7 10.9 31.0 38.3 AEO 1996 -4.7 -1.2 0.5 -3.8 -14.4 -15.8 -16.2 -12.6 -5.9 -9.2 -13.6 -8.4 -14.7 8.9 25.8 32.9 81.4 142.3 189.1 AEO 1997 1.3 4.3 5.6 0.2 -2.2 -2.9 0.9 9.7 6.9 2.1 8.0 -0.1 26.8 44.5 50.5 102.2 166.0 213.5 AEO 1998 4.0 6.6 3.2 8.6 7.4 11.3 20.6 16.8 11.3 17.3 8.5 37.9 57.6 64.3 121.1 190.9 243.7 AEO 1999 -2.4 -7.5 -6.9 -5.3 -1.7 6.4 5.4 1.9 11.1 5.7 36.3 57.0 67.2 126.7 197.7 251.6 AEO 2000 -0.1 3.0 6.7 14.4 25.5 21.6 16.0 22.5 14.0 45.1 66.0 73.4 132.9 205.3 258.5 AEO 2001 -0.6 4.4 10.8 24.6 27.3 23.9 34.3 25.2 60.8 85.4 94.3 162.6 246.4 308.8 AEO 2002 2.2 7.0 23.7 26.7 24.6 32.3 23.6 56.2 79.3 87.8 153.3 233.2 291.4 AEO 2003 -9.3 1.6 7.9 6.8 15.1 10.3 46.0 72.4 83.8 148.7 229.6 287.9 AEO 2004 7.5 5.8 7.1 23.5 17.0 58.3 88.1 111.1 193.2 288.3 361.1 AEO 2005 -3.7 -6.7 5.2 -1.0 36.7 56.8 89.7 163.0 261.9 361.6 AEO 2006 -6.0 5.3 5.6 35.4 55.3 66.9 128.7 219.8 273.7 AEO 2007 -5.0 -9.4 28.3 58.2 74.7 146.4 229.3 310.6 AEO 2008 0.5 27.3 47.3 47.7 104.0 164.9 192.1 AEO 2009 0.3 2.1 -10.2 1.5 16.0 36.2 AEO 2010 3.0 8.3 41.4 72.6 79.7 AEO 2011 5.3 40.2 74.0 107.1 AEO 2012 -3.3 7.8 21.1 AEO 2013 13.1 29.0 AEO 2014 2.2 Average Absolute Percent Difference 8.6 1.3 3.7 1.2 2.2 4.5 8.1 9.0 9.2 10.0 13.0 12.6 11.2 14.4 10.5 33.5 51.1 58.6 108.9 164.4 201.0 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 4.1.

### Table 11a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) 

### AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1992 1.47 1.48 1.53 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.88 1.92 AEO 1995 1993 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.42 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.50 AEO 1996 1994 1.32 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.27 1.28 1.27 1.28 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.30 AEO 1997 1995 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.29 1.30 1.29 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.24 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.17 1.16 1.14 AEO 1998 1996 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 AEO 1999 1997 1.23 1.21 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.01 AEO 2000 1998 1.26 1.24 1.19 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.06 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 AEO 2001 1999 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.08 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.03 AEO 2002 2000 1.20 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.03 AEO 2003 2001 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 AEO 2004 2002 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 AEO 2005 2003 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.25 1.24 1.24 1.24 AEO 2006 2004 1.50 1.53 1.51 1.50 1.47 1.48 1.45 1.44 1.43 AEO 2007 2005 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.71 1.67 1.64 1.62 AEO 2008 2006 1.73 1.77 1.82 1.84 1.81 1.78 1.76 AEO 2009 2007 1.93 1.98 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.88 AEO 2010 2008 2.15 1.99 1.98 1.99 1.99 AEO 2011 2009 2.26 2.22 2.16 2.12 AEO 2012 2010 2.34 2.38 2.37 AEO 2013 2011 2.41 2.34 AEO 2014 2012 2.37 Actual in Nominal$ 1.39 1.36 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.36 1.54 1.69 1.77 2.07 2.21 2.27 2.39 2.38 2.35 Average Absolute Difference 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.23 0.24 0.40 0.47 0.48 0.55 0.63 0.56



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 8.7 14.2 23.9 32.4 37.2 40.1 50.2 57.6 61.8 62.9 63.2 59.7 43.9 39.9 39.5 23.0 20.5 21.3 AEO 1995 4.8 9.9 13.6 18.7 22.0 26.7 31.3 33.6 32.8 34.1 30.6 19.9 13.4 11.1 -3.1 -7.9 -7.4 AEO 1996 2.2 4.2 6.3 8.3 12.5 16.3 15.3 16.7 16.8 12.8 3.6 -3.3 -4.8 -17.5 -21.5 -23.7 -24.8 -22.5 -20.2 AEO 1997 4.8 7.1 9.3 14.5 17.2 17.3 16.1 13.1 8.2 -2.0 -6.6 -9.4 -22.3 -27.3 -29.2 -33.0 -31.9 -31.1 AEO 1998 -0.1 1.0 4.7 6.7 5.3 4.1 2.4 -2.1 -11.5 -17.9 -20.3 -31.1 -35.2 -36.9 -39.5 -39.0 -38.1 AEO 1999 -0.7 2.3 4.5 3.3 2.2 0.9 -3.6 -12.9 -19.4 -21.8 -33.1 -37.7 -39.3 -42.2 -41.7 -40.9 AEO 2000 5.2 7.2 2.2 0.2 -2.4 -6.7 -15.9 -21.5 -23.5 -33.7 -38.9 -39.4 -41.7 -41.0 -39.8 AEO 2001 2.0 0.6 0.2 -1.6 -6.0 -15.3 -21.6 -24.6 -35.4 -40.0 -41.3 -43.7 -42.8 -41.6 AEO 2002 -0.7 -3.8 -4.8 -8.0 -17.8 -24.6 -26.9 -37.1 -41.3 -42.7 -44.5 -43.9 -42.9 AEO 2003 -1.2 -1.2 -4.9 -12.6 -18.8 -21.3 -32.0 -36.4 -37.7 -39.8 -38.8 -37.2 AEO 2004 -1.2 -4.9 -13.4 -19.0 -21.0 -30.8 -34.7 -35.8 -37.8 -36.5 -34.6 AEO 2005 -3.0 -11.2 -16.4 -18.8 -29.4 -33.9 -35.7 -38.0 -36.9 -35.3 AEO 2006 0.2 -3.8 -6.6 -19.4 -25.3 -25.9 -29.6 -28.6 -27.2 AEO 2007 1.9 1.1 -11.2 -16.4 -17.3 -21.7 -21.4 -20.0 AEO 2008 0.5 -10.6 -13.3 -13.6 -17.3 -17.1 -15.7 AEO 2009 -4.9 -7.8 -14.7 -16.8 -15.7 -12.2 AEO 2010 -1.9 -10.5 -13.7 -11.5 -8.7 AEO 2011 0.9 -3.8 -4.5 -3.5 AEO 2012 0.1 4.0 6.3 AEO 2013 2.9 2.7 AEO 2014 2.5 Average Absolute Percent Difference 8.7 9.5 12.0 13.8 13.9 13.6 16.6 17.9 15.6 14.0 12.9 12.6 13.9 16.3 16.8 23.4 25.9 26.3 28.7 28.1 25.5

Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions.

Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.9. Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014.

## Table 11b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1.50 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.78 1.82 1.92 2.01 2.13 2.22 2.30 2.41 2.46 2.64 2.78 2.90 3.12 3.30 AEO 1995 1.42 1.46 1.49 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.67 1.76 1.80 1.89 1.97 2.05 2.13 2.21 2.28 2.38 2.50 AEO 1996 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50 1.56 1.62 1.67 1.75 1.80 1.87 1.92 2.01 2.05 2.16 2.25 2.33 AEO 1997 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.44 1.46 1.51 1.54 1.55 1.58 1.62 1.70 1.74 1.77 1.81 1.85 1.87 1.93 1.96 AEO 1998 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.51 1.55 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.68 AEO 1999 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.43 1.46 1.48 AEO 2000 1.28 1.27 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.41 AEO 2001 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.34 1.36 AEO 2002 1.22 1.21 1.23 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.42 AEO 2003 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 AEO 2004 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.52 1.56 AEO 2005 1.31 1.34 1.37 1.38 1.41 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.49 1.53 AEO 2006 1.53 1.60 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.71 1.74 AEO 2007 1.72 1.78 1.83 1.86 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.90 AEO 2008 1.78 1.85 1.93 1.99 1.99 1.99 2.00 AEO 2009 1.97 2.05 1.93 1.97 1.97 2.04 AEO 2010 2.18 2.05 2.07 2.10 2.15 AEO 2011 2.28 2.27 2.23 2.23 AEO 2012 2.39 2.46 2.47 AEO 2013 2.45 2.42 AEO 2014 2.41 Actual in Nominal$ 1.39 1.36 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.36 1.54 1.69 1.77 2.07 2.21 2.27 2.39 2.38 2.35 Average Absolute Difference 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.32 0.34 0.51 0.57 0.59 0.64 0.58 0.50



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 8.5 14.4 24.6 34.0 40.1 45.5 58.2 67.3 73.3 77.4 80.0 77.0 59.8 56.0 56.8 40.2 41.2 45.3 AEO 1995 4.9 11.0 15.5 21.4 26.7 33.2 39.1 42.7 44.3 47.7 44.8 33.0 26.3 24.6 10.2 7.5 10.3 AEO 1996 2.1 4.8 7.5 11.2 16.9 21.6 21.5 24.9 26.6 23.1 13.6 6.6 5.7 -7.0 -9.2 -9.7 -9.8 -5.3 -0.7 AEO 1997 5.4 8.4 12.1 18.6 21.9 22.7 22.9 21.0 16.2 5.2 0.6 -1.8 -14.6 -18.0 -18.4 -21.7 -19.1 -16.5 AEO 1998 0.2 2.6 7.2 9.6 8.5 8.5 7.4 2.6 -7.6 -14.5 -16.7 -27.3 -30.1 -30.5 -32.6 -31.0 -28.6 AEO 1999 -0.7 2.6 4.6 3.4 3.2 2.1 -3.1 -13.3 -20.3 -22.9 -33.7 -37.1 -37.7 -40.1 -38.8 -37.0 AEO 2000 5.0 6.2 0.7 -0.9 -3.5 -8.4 -18.2 -24.4 -26.6 -36.3 -40.4 -40.4 -42.5 -41.7 -40.2 AEO 2001 2.0 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -6.2 -16.3 -23.3 -26.8 -37.3 -41.2 -42.1 -44.5 -43.6 -42.2 AEO 2002 -0.8 -3.5 -3.7 -6.9 -17.3 -24.4 -26.8 -36.7 -40.0 -40.7 -42.4 -41.2 -39.4 AEO 2003 -1.3 -0.6 -4.5 -13.2 -20.2 -23.1 -33.7 -37.3 -38.1 -40.1 -38.7 -36.5 AEO 2004 -1.7 -6.6 -16.0 -22.2 -24.5 -33.7 -36.4 -36.6 -38.2 -36.2 -33.5 AEO 2005 -3.6 -12.8 -19.0 -21.9 -32.1 -35.6 -36.6 -38.7 -37.2 -35.1 AEO 2006 -0.4 -5.4 -9.0 -21.4 -26.2 -26.2 -29.7 -28.1 -25.9 AEO 2007 1.9 0.7 -11.7 -16.0 -16.5 -21.1 -20.8 -19.2 AEO 2008 0.4 -10.8 -12.7 -12.5 -16.5 -16.4 -14.8 AEO 2009 -4.7 -7.4 -14.9 -17.7 -17.0 -13.3 AEO 2010 -1.2 -9.6 -13.5 -11.6 -8.6 AEO 2011 0.5 -4.8 -6.1 -5.0 AEO 2012 0.1 3.5 5.1 AEO 2013 2.9 2.9 AEO 2014 2.5 Average Absolute Percent Difference 8.5 9.6 12.6 14.9 15.5 16.5 20.2 21.5 19.3 18.7 17.8 16.9 17.5 18.9 19.2 24.5 25.7 25.9 26.7 24.4 21.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.9.

## Table 12. Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 992 1006 1035 1061 1079 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 996 1002 1013 1025 1039 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983 990 1004 1017 1027 1033 1046 1067 1070 1071 1074 1082 1087 1094 1103 AEO 1997 948 970 987 1003 1017 1020 1025 1034 1041 1054 1075 1086 1092 1092 1099 1104 1114 1122 AEO 1998 1009 1051 1044 1058 1087 1084 1090 1097 1112 1130 1142 1148 1160 1162 1180 1184 1188 AEO 1999 1040 1075 1092 1109 1113 1118 1120 1120 1133 1139 1150 1155 1156 1173 1177 1191 AEO 2000 1053 1086 1103 1124 1142 1164 1175 1184 1189 1194 1199 1195 1200 1206 1213 AEO 2001 1078 1112 1135 1153 1165 1183 1191 1220 1228 1228 1235 1240 1244 1251 AEO 2002 1088 1092 1126 1147 1176 1199 1227 1235 1243 1251 1256 1265 1275 AEO 2003 1040 1059 1082 1106 1138 1172 1185 1200 1218 1231 1239 1250 AEO 2004 1100 1098 1126 1156 1183 1193 1216 1229 1240 1254 1266 AEO 2005 1102 1137 1159 1189 1210 1224 1229 1237 1248 1255 AEO 2006 1144 1150 1172 1196 1224 1233 1245 1264 1268 AEO 2007 1135 1147 1152 1169 1195 1222 1233 1245 AEO 2008 1127 1126 1135 1145 1181 1199 1203 AEO 2009 1109 1077 1117 1152 1178 1192 AEO 2010 1015 1035 1094 1122 1137 AEO 2011 1055 1026 1024 1017 AEO 2012 1039 984 961 AEO 2013 905 934 AEO 2014 942

Actual 944 951 962 1006 1030 1037 1039 1084 1060 1066 1095 1107 1126 1112 1128 1121 997 1049 1003 889 925 Average Absolute Difference 24 20 25 64 65 53 46 57 55 54 52 50 50 55 57 61 150 107 168 274 233



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -2.6 -2.4 -3.0 -6.8 -8.4 -8.6 -8.2 -11.6 -9.3 -9.3 -10.7 -10.6 -12.3 -10.8 -10.8 -7.6 6.4 2.9 AEO 1995 -1.7 -2.3 -6.5 -8.0 -8.6 -8.4 -12.0 -9.6 -9.7 -11.3 -11.1 -11.9 -10.5 -11.2 -9.6 2.8 -0.9 AEO 1996 -2.6 -6.4 -7.3 -7.2 -5.4 -8.7 -5.3 -4.6 -6.2 -6.7 -7.1 -4.1 -5.1 -4.4 7.7 3.2 8.4 23.0 19.2 AEO 1997 -5.8 -5.8 -4.8 -3.4 -6.2 -3.8 -3.9 -5.6 -6.0 -6.4 -3.4 -3.7 -2.5 9.5 4.8 10.1 25.3 21.3 AEO 1998 -2.0 1.3 0.5 -2.4 2.5 1.7 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 1.6 1.3 2.5 16.3 10.8 17.7 33.2 28.4 AEO 1999 0.3 3.5 0.8 4.6 4.4 2.2 1.1 -0.5 1.9 1.0 2.6 15.8 10.3 17.0 32.4 28.7 AEO 2000 1.4 0.2 4.1 5.4 4.3 5.2 4.4 6.5 5.4 6.5 20.2 14.0 19.7 35.6 31.2 AEO 2001 -0.6 4.9 6.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 7.1 8.2 9.6 23.2 17.7 23.6 39.9 35.2 AEO 2002 2.6 2.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 7.8 8.7 10.2 24.6 19.3 25.2 42.3 37.8 AEO 2003 -2.5 -3.2 -2.2 -1.8 2.3 3.9 5.8 20.3 16.2 22.7 39.4 35.2 AEO 2004 0.4 -0.9 0.0 3.9 4.9 6.5 21.9 17.2 23.7 41.0 36.8 AEO 2005 -0.5 0.9 4.2 5.4 8.0 22.7 17.2 23.3 40.3 35.6 AEO 2006 1.6 3.4 3.9 6.7 22.8 17.6 24.1 42.1 37.1 AEO 2007 2.0 1.7 2.8 17.2 13.9 21.8 38.7 34.6 AEO 2008 -0.1 0.5 13.8 9.2 17.8 34.8 30.0 AEO 2009 -1.0 7.9 6.5 14.9 32.5 28.8 AEO 2010 1.8 -1.3 9.1 26.2 22.9 AEO 2011 0.6 2.3 15.2 9.9 AEO 2012 3.6 10.7 3.9 AEO 2013 1.8 1.0 AEO 2014 1.8 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.6 2.1 2.6 6.4 6.3 5.1 4.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 15.0 10.2 16.8 30.8 25.2 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 6.2.

## Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 1128 1143 1173 1201 1223 AEO 1995 1006 1010 1011 1016 1017 1021 1027 1033 1040 1051 1066 1076 1083 1090 1108 1122 1137 AEO 1996 1037 1044 1041 1045 1061 1070 1086 1100 1112 1121 1135 1156 1161 1167 1173 1184 1190 1203 1215 AEO 1997 1028 1052 1072 1088 1105 1110 1115 1123 1133 1146 1171 1182 1190 1193 1201 1209 1223 1231 AEO 1998 1088 1122 1128 1145 1176 1176 1183 1191 1207 1229 1239 1249 1261 1265 1284 1290 1296 AEO 1999 1125 1154 1168 1187 1193 1198 1199 1200 1213 1220 1232 1236 1236 1253 1259 1268 AEO 2000 1120 1136 1153 1174 1190 1212 1221 1231 1236 1242 1246 1242 1246 1249 1254 AEO 2001 1111 1136 1181 1198 1209 1226 1234 1262 1269 1268 1273 1277 1282 1288 AEO 2002 1168 1141 1162 1183 1211 1234 1262 1271 1279 1284 1292 1300 1306 AEO 2003 1085 1099 1102 1124 1156 1188 1200 1214 1231 1239 1247 1258 AEO 2004 1100 1121 1141 1168 1192 1199 1220 1230 1240 1250 1260 AEO 2005 1125 1179 1179 1207 1225 1237 1238 1242 1250 1254 AEO 2006 1145 1166 1204 1223 1252 1261 1266 1277 1277 AEO 2007 1149 1143 1145 1159 1189 1214 1225 1237 AEO 2008 1155 1152 1153 1166 1199 1211 1209 AEO 2009 1159 1109 1145 1182 1206 1216 AEO 2010 1082 1062 1120 1149 1159 AEO 2011 1100 1063 1056 1045 AEO 2012 1093 1048 1036 AEO 2013 1033 1033 AEO 2014 1022

Actual 954 1042 1042 1073 1098 1126 1109 1083 1138 1103 1082 1123 1145 1177 1161 1186 1089 1098 1109 1028 994 Average Absolute Difference 45 28 12 39 47 52 38 40 41 45 62 40 39 36 46 41 112 110 111 181 209



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 4.8 -2.0 -0.1 -2.0 -3.8 -5.3 -3.3 -0.2 -4.5 -0.5 2.3 -0.1 -2.1 -4.2 -1.5 -1.1 10.3 11.4 AEO 1995 -3.4 -3.0 -5.7 -7.5 -9.7 -7.9 -5.1 -9.2 -5.7 -2.8 -5.1 -6.0 -8.0 -6.1 -6.6 3.1 3.6 AEO 1996 -0.4 -2.7 -5.2 -7.2 -4.3 -1.2 -4.6 -0.3 2.8 -0.2 -0.9 -1.8 0.0 -1.6 7.8 7.8 7.3 17.1 22.2 AEO 1997 -4.2 -4.2 -4.8 -1.9 2.1 -2.4 1.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.3 9.6 9.4 9.0 19.0 23.8 AEO 1998 -0.9 -0.4 1.7 5.7 3.3 6.6 9.3 6.0 5.4 4.4 6.7 5.3 15.8 15.2 15.8 25.5 30.3 AEO 1999 -0.1 4.0 7.9 4.3 8.1 10.8 6.7 4.8 3.1 5.1 3.9 13.5 12.5 13.0 22.5 27.5 AEO 2000 1.0 5.0 1.4 6.4 10.0 7.9 6.7 4.5 6.5 4.7 14.4 13.1 12.3 21.5 26.1 AEO 2001 2.6 -0.2 7.0 10.8 7.6 7.1 4.8 8.7 7.0 16.5 15.9 15.2 24.7 29.5 AEO 2002 2.6 3.4 7.4 5.3 5.8 4.9 8.7 7.2 17.5 17.0 16.5 26.5 31.3 AEO 2003 -1.7 1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 2.3 1.2 11.5 12.1 11.8 21.3 26.5 AEO 2004 1.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 2.7 1.1 12.1 12.0 11.8 21.6 26.8 AEO 2005 0.2 2.9 0.1 4.0 3.3 13.6 12.8 12.0 21.6 26.1 AEO 2006 0.0 -1.0 3.7 3.1 15.0 14.8 14.2 24.3 28.4 AEO 2007 -2.4 -1.5 -3.5 6.4 8.3 9.5 19.2 24.5 AEO 2008 -0.5 -2.8 5.9 6.2 8.1 17.9 21.6 AEO 2009 -2.3 1.9 4.3 6.6 17.3 22.4 AEO 2010 -0.6 -3.3 1.0 11.8 16.6 AEO 2011 0.2 -4.1 2.7 5.1 AEO 2012 -1.4 2.0 4.2 AEO 2013 0.5 3.9 AEO 2014 2.8 Average Absolute Percent Difference 4.8 2.7 1.2 3.6 4.3 4.6 3.4 3.7 3.6 4.1 5.8 3.5 3.4 3.0 4.0 3.4 10.3 10.0 10.0 17.6 21.0 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 6.1, Coal Production and Waste Coal Supplied.

### Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) 

### AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1992 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 AEO 1995 1993 6.80 6.80 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 AEO 1996 1994 7.09 6.99 6.94 6.93 6.96 6.96 6.96 6.97 6.98 6.97 6.98 6.95 6.95 6.94 6.96 6.95 6.91 6.87 6.84 AEO 1997 1995 6.94 6.89 6.90 6.91 6.86 6.84 6.78 6.73 6.66 6.60 6.58 6.54 6.49 6.48 6.45 6.36 6.27 6.19 AEO 1998 1996 6.80 6.60 6.57 6.46 6.36 6.29 6.26 6.18 6.12 6.05 6.01 5.97 5.94 5.91 5.81 5.71 5.69 AEO 1999 1997 6.70 6.67 6.58 6.48 6.38 6.41 6.41 6.35 6.32 6.26 6.20 6.17 6.14 6.05 5.96 5.91 AEO 2000 1998 6.60 6.57 6.45 6.31 6.25 6.19 6.09 6.09 6.07 6.03 5.95 5.97 5.90 5.86 5.85 AEO 2001 1999 6.80 6.75 6.53 6.44 6.38 6.19 6.12 5.99 5.91 5.87 5.87 5.84 5.82 5.83 AEO 2002 2000 7.06 6.71 6.52 6.50 6.43 6.35 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.34 6.37 6.33 6.34 AEO 2003 2001 6.90 6.62 6.56 6.50 6.37 6.33 6.32 6.38 6.36 6.39 6.38 6.42 AEO 2004 2002 7.13 6.96 6.84 6.73 6.63 6.63 6.67 6.64 6.64 6.71 6.71 AEO 2005 2003 7.41 7.39 7.12 6.81 6.65 6.64 6.61 6.60 6.68 6.77 AEO 2006 2004 8.34 8.21 7.82 7.56 7.42 7.31 7.19 7.14 7.21 AEO 2007 2005 8.32 8.30 8.29 8.20 8.07 7.88 7.78 7.73 AEO 2008 2006 8.90 9.06 9.35 9.18 8.93 8.82 8.67 AEO 2009 2007 9.49 9.11 8.28 8.56 8.55 8.56 AEO 2010 2008 9.58 9.14 8.60 8.90 8.93 AEO 2011 2009 9.57 9.03 9.01 8.94 AEO 2012 2010 9.73 9.59 9.63 AEO 2013 2011 9.41 9.19 AEO 2014 2012 9.79 Actual in Nominal$ 6.93 6.91 6.89 6.86 6.85 6.74 6.64 6.81 7.29 7.20 7.44 7.61 8.14 8.90 9.13 9.74 9.82 9.83 9.90 9.84 10.08 Average Absolute Difference 0.03 0.11 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.43 0.55 0.44 0.40 0.44 0.50 0.48 0.63 0.85 0.87 1.11 1.09 1.08 1.09 1.40 1.46



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 0.4 2.9 6.9 9.3 11.4 14.4 19.6 19.3 15.6 18.8 18.9 19.5 15.3 10.2 10.3 6.9 8.2 10.9 AEO 1995 0.5 2.9 3.7 5.6 8.5 11.8 11.5 8.1 11.2 11.3 11.8 7.9 3.2 3.3 0.1 0.1 2.6 AEO 1996 5.0 5.9 7.1 9.9 13.7 13.4 8.4 11.6 10.3 10.7 6.9 0.3 0.4 -4.1 -3.9 -3.0 -2.2 -0.6 -1.9 AEO 1997 3.0 4.2 7.2 10.7 9.5 4.3 6.3 4.2 3.5 -1.0 -6.9 -7.5 -12.2 -12.3 -11.9 -11.9 -11.1 -13.0 AEO 1998 1.0 0.7 3.3 1.3 -4.7 -3.1 -4.8 -5.6 -9.8 -16.0 -16.4 -20.7 -21.2 -20.7 -21.0 -20.4 -21.5 AEO 1999 0.5 3.1 1.4 -4.5 -3.5 -4.3 -3.8 -8.0 -13.7 -14.4 -19.0 -19.4 -18.9 -19.1 -18.3 -19.8 AEO 2000 0.9 0.1 -6.0 -5.5 -7.6 -8.0 -12.7 -17.7 -17.9 -22.1 -23.2 -22.0 -21.9 -20.5 -21.4 AEO 2001 2.1 -3.2 -3.7 -6.3 -6.6 -12.6 -18.5 -20.3 -24.8 -25.3 -24.5 -23.8 -22.3 -22.9 AEO 2002 -1.0 -3.2 -7.2 -7.0 -11.3 -17.4 -17.7 -21.3 -21.4 -20.3 -18.9 -17.4 -18.0 AEO 2003 -2.8 -7.8 -8.3 -12.3 -18.9 -19.4 -23.1 -22.4 -21.8 -20.4 -18.5 -18.8 AEO 2004 -2.2 -4.2 -9.1 -15.7 -16.9 -20.6 -20.1 -19.6 -18.6 -15.6 -16.5 AEO 2005 0.1 -3.7 -12.6 -16.3 -21.8 -22.0 -21.6 -20.6 -17.7 -17.4 AEO 2006 5.8 -1.8 -6.5 -13.6 -15.2 -15.5 -15.9 -14.4 -14.3 AEO 2007 -3.6 -3.8 -8.2 -9.3 -9.6 -10.6 -9.6 -11.0 AEO 2008 0.1 -2.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -0.6 -3.2 AEO 2009 -0.7 -4.7 -12.4 -8.2 -6.2 -6.9 AEO 2010 -1.7 -5.2 -9.6 -4.1 -4.7 AEO 2011 -1.5 -5.8 -3.7 -5.3 AEO 2012 0.3 1.2 0.7 AEO 2013 -2.7 -5.8 AEO 2014 -1.4 Average Absolute Percent Difference 0.4 1.7 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.9 9.0 7.3 6.2 7.0 7.7 7.4 9.0 11.2 11.4 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.6 11.4 12.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions.

Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.8. Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014.

## Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 6.95 7.12 7.41 7.59 7.79 8.01 8.36 8.62 9.02 9.32 9.76 10.08 10.42 10.94 11.32 11.87 12.45 13.05 AEO 1995 6.95 7.16 7.23 7.40 7.59 7.81 8.04 8.42 8.70 9.12 9.43 9.75 10.24 10.57 11.10 11.47 12.02 AEO 1996 7.23 7.30 7.42 7.60 7.84 8.07 8.33 8.60 8.90 9.19 9.54 9.84 10.18 10.52 10.92 11.29 11.62 11.95 12.32 AEO 1997 7.11 7.22 7.41 7.61 7.76 7.95 8.11 8.30 8.46 8.65 8.92 9.16 9.40 9.71 9.98 10.19 10.40 10.63 AEO 1998 6.94 6.89 7.03 7.08 7.16 7.27 7.42 7.53 7.66 7.79 7.97 8.16 8.36 8.58 8.71 8.86 9.12 AEO 1999 6.77 6.87 6.91 6.97 7.02 7.21 7.36 7.46 7.59 7.70 7.83 7.99 8.18 8.30 8.44 8.63 AEO 2000 6.68 6.76 6.75 6.73 6.79 6.87 6.91 7.06 7.19 7.30 7.35 7.54 7.61 7.72 7.87 AEO 2001 6.95 7.05 6.94 7.00 7.09 7.03 7.09 7.07 7.11 7.19 7.32 7.42 7.53 7.69 AEO 2002 7.21 6.99 6.99 7.15 7.26 7.36 7.52 7.71 7.89 8.11 8.34 8.52 8.76 AEO 2003 6.99 6.90 7.01 7.10 7.10 7.18 7.30 7.51 7.64 7.84 8.02 8.27 AEO 2004 7.24 7.16 7.18 7.21 7.25 7.42 7.65 7.81 8.01 8.33 8.57 AEO 2005 7.57 7.70 7.54 7.35 7.32 7.46 7.59 7.77 8.06 8.36 AEO 2006 8.55 8.59 8.32 8.21 8.23 8.28 8.33 8.48 8.79 AEO 2007 8.57 8.74 8.89 8.95 8.97 8.91 8.96 9.06 AEO 2008 9.13 9.46 9.93 9.92 9.82 9.86 9.86 AEO 2009 9.69 9.40 8.60 8.99 9.09 9.27 AEO 2010 9.72 9.41 8.97 9.43 9.62 AEO 2011 9.65 9.23 9.31 9.40 AEO 2012 9.93 9.92 10.03 AEO 2013 9.58 9.52 AEO 2014 9.94 Actual in Nominal$ 6.93 6.91 6.89 6.86 6.85 6.74 6.64 6.81 7.29 7.20 7.44 7.61 8.14 8.90 9.13 9.74 9.82 9.83 9.90 9.84 10.08 Average Absolute Difference 0.02 0.13 0.38 0.45 0.51 0.64 0.82 0.73 0.65 0.73 0.80 0.82 1.00 1.24 1.31 1.57 1.51 1.51 1.32 1.12 1.13



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 0.3 3.1 7.5 10.7 13.7 18.8 25.9 26.6 23.8 29.4 31.1 32.4 28.1 22.9 24.0 21.8 26.8 32.8 AEO 1995 0.6 3.9 5.4 8.0 12.6 17.6 18.1 15.5 20.8 22.6 24.0 19.8 15.0 15.8 13.9 16.8 22.3 AEO 1996 5.0 6.4 8.4 12.8 18.1 18.4 14.2 19.5 19.6 20.8 17.2 10.6 11.5 8.1 11.2 14.8 17.4 21.4 22.2 AEO 1997 3.6 5.4 9.9 14.7 13.9 9.1 12.6 11.5 11.2 6.3 0.2 0.3 -3.5 -1.1 1.6 3.0 5.7 5.4 AEO 1998 1.3 2.3 5.9 4.0 -1.8 0.9 -0.2 -1.1 -5.9 -12.5 -12.7 -16.3 -14.9 -12.7 -12.0 -9.9 -9.5 AEO 1999 0.5 3.4 1.4 -4.4 -2.6 -3.2 -3.2 -8.4 -14.7 -15.6 -19.6 -18.6 -16.8 -16.2 -14.3 -14.4 AEO 2000 0.7 -0.8 -7.3 -6.5 -8.7 -9.7 -15.2 -20.7 -21.3 -25.1 -25.1 -23.3 -23.1 -21.5 -21.9 AEO 2001 2.1 -3.3 -3.5 -5.9 -6.8 -13.6 -20.3 -22.6 -27.0 -26.7 -25.5 -25.0 -23.5 -23.7 AEO 2002 -1.0 -2.9 -6.1 -6.0 -10.9 -17.3 -17.6 -20.8 -19.6 -17.5 -15.7 -13.4 -13.1 AEO 2003 -2.9 -7.2 -7.9 -12.8 -20.3 -21.3 -25.1 -23.5 -22.3 -20.8 -18.5 -17.9 AEO 2004 -2.7 -5.9 -11.8 -19.0 -20.6 -23.9 -22.1 -20.6 -19.1 -15.3 -15.0 AEO 2005 -0.5 -5.5 -15.3 -19.5 -24.8 -24.0 -22.8 -21.5 -18.1 -17.1 AEO 2006 5.1 -3.5 -8.9 -15.8 -16.2 -15.8 -15.9 -13.8 -12.8 AEO 2007 -3.7 -4.3 -8.7 -8.8 -8.7 -10.0 -8.9 -10.1 AEO 2008 0.0 -2.8 1.1 0.9 -0.8 0.2 -2.2 AEO 2009 -0.5 -4.3 -12.6 -9.2 -7.7 -8.1 AEO 2010 -1.0 -4.3 -9.4 -4.2 -4.6 AEO 2011 -1.8 -6.8 -5.4 -6.8 AEO 2012 0.3 0.8 -0.5 AEO 2013 -2.7 -5.6 AEO 2014 -1.4 Average Absolute Percent Difference 0.3 1.8 5.5 6.5 7.4 9.5 12.3 10.7 8.9 10.2 10.8 10.8 12.3 14.0 14.4 16.1 15.4 15.4 13.3 11.4 11.2 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 9.8.

## Table 15. Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual Projected (billion kilowatt-hours) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928 2962 3004 3039 3071 3112 3148 3185 3228 3263 3298 3332 3371 3406 3433 3469 AEO 1995 2951 2967 2983 3026 3058 3085 3108 3134 3166 3204 3248 3285 3321 3357 3396 3433 3475 AEO 1996 2973 2998 3039 3074 3106 3137 3173 3215 3262 3317 3363 3409 3454 3505 3553 3604 3660 3722 3775 AEO 1997 3075 3115 3168 3229 3290 3328 3379 3437 3497 3545 3596 3649 3697 3736 3784 3838 3899 3948 AEO 1998 3106 3204 3255 3318 3388 3438 3488 3546 3601 3658 3716 3775 3825 3877 3939 3996 4035 AEO 1999 3205 3262 3333 3402 3454 3492 3534 3585 3639 3691 3745 3793 3843 3900 3958 4005 AEO 2000 3288 3360 3402 3461 3523 3585 3647 3699 3753 3812 3861 3909 3958 4012 4059 AEO 2001 3364 3440 3530 3608 3681 3761 3838 3918 3998 4068 4147 4212 4286 4352 AEO 2002 3443 3502 3619 3711 3793 3869 3948 4022 4090 4170 4252 4332 4404 AEO 2003 3414 3527 3617 3684 3762 3848 3940 4014 4101 4183 4266 4336 AEO 2004 3495 3582 3669 3750 3830 3909 3977 4055 4133 4212 4285 AEO 2005 3547 3649 3722 3813 3912 3997 4070 4145 4220 4285 AEO 2006 3675 3700 3767 3847 3911 3978 4047 4116 4173 AEO 2007 3694 3757 3836 3891 3953 4014 4082 4138 AEO 2008 3744 3773 3807 3869 3927 3978 3979 AEO 2009 3725 3658 3737 3796 3847 3869 AEO 2010 3589 3617 3728 3800 3809 AEO 2011 3749 3692 3734 3770 AEO 2012 3763 3729 3710 AEO 2013 3712 3665 AEO 2014 3686

Actual 2861 2935 3013 3101 3146 3264 3312 3421 3394 3465 3494 3547 3661 3670 3765 3733 3597 3754 3750 3695 3692 Average Absolute Difference 18 30 57 97 88 140 127 169 101 111 105 110 122 124 128 153 250 199 222 300 326



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -0.6 -1.5 -2.8 -4.5 -4.5 -6.9 -7.3 -9.0 -7.3 -8.1 -7.6 -8.0 -9.9 -9.2 -10.5 -8.8 -4.6 -7.6 AEO 1995 0.6 -1.5 -3.8 -3.8 -6.3 -6.9 -9.2 -7.7 -8.6 -8.3 -8.4 -10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -9.0 -4.6 -7.4 AEO 1996 -1.3 -3.3 -3.4 -5.8 -6.2 -8.3 -6.5 -7.2 -6.6 -6.5 -8.1 -7.1 -8.2 -6.1 -1.2 -4.0 -2.4 0.7 2.3 AEO 1997 -0.8 -1.0 -2.9 -2.5 -3.8 -2.0 -2.5 -1.6 -1.4 -3.2 -2.0 -3.1 -1.0 3.9 0.8 2.4 5.5 6.9 AEO 1998 -1.3 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 -1.6 -0.3 -1.3 1.1 6.4 3.3 5.0 8.1 9.3 AEO 1999 -1.8 -1.5 -2.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -2.1 -0.8 -2.0 0.3 5.4 2.4 4.0 7.1 8.5 AEO 2000 -0.7 -1.8 0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.1 -0.4 0.8 -0.3 2.1 7.3 4.1 5.5 8.6 10.0 AEO 2001 -1.7 1.3 1.9 3.3 3.8 2.7 4.6 4.1 7.1 13.1 10.5 12.3 16.0 17.9 AEO 2002 1.4 1.1 3.6 4.6 3.6 5.4 4.9 7.7 13.7 11.1 13.4 17.2 19.3 AEO 2003 -1.5 1.0 2.0 0.6 2.5 2.2 5.6 11.6 9.2 11.5 15.5 17.4 AEO 2004 0.0 1.0 0.2 2.2 1.7 4.7 10.6 8.0 10.2 14.0 16.1 AEO 2005 0.0 -0.3 1.4 1.3 4.8 11.1 8.4 10.5 14.2 16.1 AEO 2006 0.4 0.8 0.1 3.1 8.7 5.9 7.9 11.4 13.0 AEO 2007 0.6 -0.2 2.8 8.2 5.3 7.1 10.5 12.1 AEO 2008 -0.6 1.1 5.8 3.0 4.7 7.7 7.8 AEO 2009 -0.2 1.7 -0.5 1.2 4.1 4.8 AEO 2010 -0.2 -3.7 -0.6 2.8 3.2 AEO 2011 -0.2 -1.5 1.1 2.1 AEO 2012 0.4 0.9 0.5 AEO 2013 0.5 -0.7 AEO 2014 -0.1 Average Absolute Percent Difference 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.1 2.8 4.3 3.8 4.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.1 6.9 5.3 5.9 8.1 8.8 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 7.1.

## Table 16. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 88.0 89.5 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.6 95.7 96.7 97.7 98.9 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.7 103.6 104.3 105.2 AEO 1995 89.2 90.0 90.6 91.9 93.0 93.8 94.6 95.3 96.2 97.2 98.4 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.1 102.9 103.9 AEO 1996 90.6 91.3 92.5 93.5 94.3 95.1 95.9 96.9 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.4 102.1 103.1 103.8 104.7 105.5 106.5 107.2 AEO 1997 92.6 93.6 95.1 96.6 97.9 98.8 99.9 101.2 102.4 103.4 104.7 105.8 106.6 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.4 110.0 AEO 1998 94.7 96.7 98.6 99.8 101.3 102.4 103.4 104.5 105.8 107.3 108.6 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.1 114.1 114.7 AEO 1999 94.6 97.0 99.2 100.9 102.0 102.8 103.6 104.7 106.0 107.2 108.5 109.7 110.8 111.8 112.8 113.6 AEO 2000 96.4 98.1 99.4 100.9 102.4 103.8 105.3 106.6 107.9 109.2 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.2 114.3 AEO 2001 97.6 99.9 102.2 104.1 105.6 107.0 108.5 110.0 111.4 112.7 114.1 115.4 116.6 118.0 AEO 2002 98.3 101.0 104.1 105.8 107.6 109.3 110.8 112.2 113.8 115.6 117.5 119.2 120.8 AEO 2003 97.5 99.9 101.7 103.2 105.1 107.2 109.3 111.1 113.3 115.2 117.1 118.7 AEO 2004 98.1 100.2 102.8 104.9 106.8 108.6 109.9 111.8 113.5 115.3 116.9 AEO 2005 99.8 101.8 103.6 105.6 107.8 109.7 111.3 112.9 114.3 115.6 AEO 2006 100.5 101.3 103.3 104.9 106.4 107.9 109.2 110.7 111.8 AEO 2007 100.7 102.4 103.7 105.1 106.5 107.7 109.0 110.0 AEO 2008 101.4 102.3 102.2 103.3 104.6 105.5 105.8 AEO 2009 100.5 98.1 99.1 100.6 101.6 102.1 AEO 2010 95.6 96.6 98.6 100.1 100.6 AEO 2011 97.8 98.3 99.5 100.8 AEO 2012 98.3 97.9 96.6 AEO 2013 96.1 96.3 AEO 2014 96.5

Actual 87.4 89.1 91.0 94.0 94.6 95.0 96.7 98.8 96.2 97.6 97.9 100.2 100.3 99.6 101.3 99.3 94.6 98.0 97.5 95.0 97.6 Average Absolute Difference 0.6 0.3 0.6 2.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 4.7 4.2 7.2 12.1 9.6 10.9 13.8 11.7



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 0.7 0.5 -0.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -3.1 0.5 0.0 1.0 -0.2 0.5 2.1 1.4 4.3 10.3 7.4 AEO 1995 0.1 -1.2 -3.7 -2.8 -2.1 -2.9 -4.3 -0.9 -1.5 -0.8 -1.8 -0.9 0.7 -0.1 2.8 8.8 6.0 AEO 1996 -0.5 -2.9 -2.2 -1.6 -2.5 -3.8 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -1.0 0.1 1.8 0.8 3.8 9.7 6.8 8.2 12.1 9.8 AEO 1997 -1.5 -1.1 0.1 -0.1 -1.0 2.7 2.3 3.3 2.2 3.1 5.1 4.4 7.4 13.3 10.1 11.4 15.2 12.7 AEO 1998 0.1 1.8 2.0 1.0 5.3 4.9 5.6 4.3 5.5 7.7 7.2 10.7 17.4 14.4 16.0 20.1 17.5 AEO 1999 -0.4 0.3 0.4 4.9 4.5 5.0 3.4 4.4 6.4 5.8 9.3 16.0 13.1 14.7 18.7 16.4 AEO 2000 -0.3 -0.7 3.3 3.3 4.6 3.6 5.0 7.0 6.5 9.9 16.5 13.5 15.1 19.2 17.1 AEO 2001 -1.2 3.9 4.6 6.3 5.4 6.7 8.9 8.6 12.2 19.2 16.5 18.4 22.8 20.8 AEO 2002 2.2 3.4 6.2 5.6 7.3 9.7 9.3 13.0 20.3 18.0 20.6 25.4 23.7 AEO 2003 -0.1 2.0 1.5 2.9 5.5 5.8 10.0 17.5 15.5 18.2 23.3 21.6 AEO 2004 0.1 0.0 2.5 5.3 5.4 9.3 16.2 14.0 16.5 21.3 19.7 AEO 2005 -0.3 1.6 4.0 4.2 8.6 15.9 13.5 15.8 20.4 18.4 AEO 2006 0.2 1.6 2.0 5.7 12.4 10.0 12.0 16.5 14.5 AEO 2007 1.1 1.0 4.5 11.1 8.7 10.5 14.7 12.7 AEO 2008 0.1 3.1 8.0 5.4 7.3 11.1 8.4 AEO 2009 1.2 3.7 1.1 3.2 7.0 4.6 AEO 2010 1.1 -1.4 1.1 5.4 3.0 AEO 2011 -0.3 0.8 4.7 3.2 AEO 2012 0.9 3.1 -1.0 AEO 2013 1.1 -1.4 AEO 2014 -1.2 Average Absolute Percent Difference 0.7 0.3 0.7 2.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.7 2.5 3.2 2.5 3.1 4.8 4.2 7.2 12.8 9.8 11.2 14.6 12.0 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 1.1.

## Table 17. Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 AEO 1995 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 AEO 1996 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 AEO 1997 11.1 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 AEO 1998 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 AEO 1999 10.5 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 AEO 2000 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 AEO 2001 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 AEO 2002 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 AEO 2003 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 AEO 2004 11.5 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 AEO 2005 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 AEO 2006 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 AEO 2007 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 AEO 2008 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.8 AEO 2009 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.3 AEO 2010 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.0 AEO 2011 11.4 11.1 11.1 11.0 AEO 2012 11.6 11.6 11.3 AEO 2013 10.7 11.2 AEO 2014 11.3

Actual 10.5 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.7 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.0 11.2 11.6 11.4 11.5 10.8 11.4 11.6 11.3 11.5 11.4 10.5 11.6 Average Absolute Difference 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.8



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -2.2 -0.6 -1.3 -7.1 -3.0 1.3 -2.6 -7.3 -4.9 -7.1 -9.9 -8.3 -9.4 -2.7 -7.5 -9.4 -6.7 -8.0 AEO 1995 5.2 2.9 -3.1 1.0 5.1 0.8 -4.3 -2.2 -4.5 -7.7 -6.2 -7.4 -0.7 -5.6 -7.5 -4.6 -5.9 AEO 1996 -0.9 -4.5 -0.1 4.3 0.8 -3.5 -0.9 -2.5 -4.8 -2.2 -3.0 4.8 0.3 -0.8 2.4 1.6 4.1 14.4 4.2 AEO 1997 -0.9 2.3 7.7 3.8 -0.6 1.9 0.1 -2.4 0.1 -0.7 7.0 2.3 1.0 4.2 3.1 5.6 15.8 5.4 AEO 1998 0.1 8.1 4.8 1.2 4.5 2.7 0.2 2.8 1.9 10.0 5.2 3.9 7.2 6.2 8.7 19.4 8.6 AEO 1999 2.6 4.2 0.3 3.5 1.7 -1.1 1.3 0.2 7.9 3.1 1.9 5.1 4.1 6.8 17.2 6.8 AEO 2000 0.3 -2.5 0.5 -1.0 -3.3 -0.6 -1.3 6.6 2.0 0.8 4.2 3.3 5.6 15.6 5.0 AEO 2001 -3.9 1.8 1.5 -0.1 3.1 2.7 11.0 6.3 5.1 8.7 7.8 10.5 21.4 10.8 AEO 2002 2.6 2.7 1.8 4.8 3.9 12.0 7.0 5.5 8.7 7.5 10.1 20.7 9.7 AEO 2003 -0.9 0.3 3.6 3.1 11.8 7.1 5.9 9.3 8.2 10.6 21.1 10.1 AEO 2004 -0.6 3.2 2.7 11.5 7.1 6.0 9.8 9.1 11.8 22.5 11.3 AEO 2005 0.5 0.9 9.5 5.9 5.8 10.2 9.9 13.1 24.3 13.1 AEO 2006 1.2 8.9 3.9 3.1 6.9 6.3 9.0 19.5 8.7 AEO 2007 4.7 3.7 2.9 6.6 5.9 8.7 19.2 8.5 AEO 2008 0.8 0.4 3.6 1.2 3.6 13.5 2.1 AEO 2009 0.2 2.7 0.8 0.5 9.1 -2.0 AEO 2010 -0.9 -2.2 -2.2 6.2 -4.7 AEO 2011 -0.8 -2.2 6.0 -4.7 AEO 2012 2.2 11.0 -2.4 AEO 2013 2.6 -2.9 AEO 2014 -2.8 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.2 2.9 1.7 3.9 1.3 4.8 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 7.8 4.5 3.8 6.0 5.1 6.8 15.5 6.5 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 2.2.

## Table 18. Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 AEO 1995 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 AEO 1996 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 AEO 1997 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 AEO 1998 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 AEO 1999 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 AEO 2000 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 AEO 2001 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.0 AEO 2002 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 AEO 2003 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 AEO 2004 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.2 AEO 2005 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 AEO 2006 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 AEO 2007 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.6 AEO 2008 8.6 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1 AEO 2009 8.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 AEO 2010 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 8.9 AEO 2011 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.8 AEO 2012 8.7 8.7 8.7 AEO 2013 8.3 8.6 AEO 2014 8.6

Actual 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.2 8.7 Average Absolute Difference 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -2.5 -3.7 -5.6 -8.1 -9.5 -7.2 -8.4 -12.3 -10.8 -11.2 -12.3 -12.5 -11.8 -8.9 -11.9 -13.4 -11.8 -11.7 AEO 1995 -2.7 -6.2 -8.8 -10.4 -8.6 -9.8 -14.0 -13.0 -13.7 -15.0 -15.2 -14.7 -12.1 -14.9 -16.1 -14.2 -14.2 AEO 1996 -4.0 -5.8 -7.3 -5.2 -6.2 -10.3 -8.6 -9.0 -9.9 -9.6 -8.5 -5.3 -7.9 -8.9 -6.6 -6.3 -5.8 -0.8 -5.3 AEO 1997 -2.8 -5.7 -3.4 -4.3 -8.4 -6.7 -7.0 -7.9 -7.7 -6.7 -3.5 -6.3 -7.5 -5.2 -5.0 -4.5 0.5 -4.0 AEO 1998 -4.2 -0.7 -1.2 -5.2 -3.3 -3.4 -4.2 -3.6 -2.3 1.3 -1.4 -2.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 6.3 1.3 AEO 1999 -3.1 0.0 -3.8 -1.7 -1.8 -2.6 -2.2 -0.9 2.6 0.0 -0.9 1.9 2.5 3.3 8.9 3.9 AEO 2000 -1.4 -5.1 -2.7 -2.6 -3.4 -2.9 -1.4 2.2 -0.4 -1.2 1.6 2.2 3.0 8.4 3.3 AEO 2001 -5.4 -1.0 1.2 2.0 3.4 5.5 10.2 8.1 7.6 11.1 12.1 13.3 19.8 14.8 AEO 2002 0.4 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.7 12.7 10.8 10.5 14.4 15.9 17.5 24.7 20.0 AEO 2003 1.5 2.0 4.2 6.6 11.5 9.3 8.7 12.2 13.3 14.6 21.5 16.7 AEO 2004 0.6 1.1 4.2 9.7 8.2 8.0 12.0 13.9 15.5 22.4 17.5 AEO 2005 -1.2 -0.1 5.2 4.4 5.1 9.5 11.4 13.2 20.2 15.7 AEO 2006 0.4 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 5.2 6.9 13.7 9.4 AEO 2007 1.9 0.3 0.9 4.6 5.8 7.7 14.6 10.5 AEO 2008 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.0 8.2 4.0 AEO 2009 -1.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 9.5 4.6 AEO 2010 -1.1 0.5 2.1 7.8 2.1 AEO 2011 -0.6 0.8 5.9 1.1 AEO 2012 1.4 5.9 -0.2 AEO 2013 1.4 -1.3 AEO 2014 -1.3 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.5 3.2 5.2 6.4 7.4 4.7 4.5 8.1 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 6.3 5.7 5.8 6.7 7.0 6.9 11.1 7.2 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 2.3.

### Table 19. Total Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 AEO 1995 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 AEO 1996 26.5 26.6 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 AEO 1997 26.2 26.5 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 AEO 1998 27.2 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 AEO 1999 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 AEO 2000 25.8 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 AEO 2001 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.4 AEO 2002 24.5 25.8 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.6 30.9 AEO 2003 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.2 AEO 2004 24.5 24.9 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.7 AEO 2005 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 AEO 2006 25.2 25.4 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 AEO 2007 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 AEO 2008 25.2 25.8 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.2 26.2 AEO 2009 25.1 23.3 22.8 23.5 23.9 24.3 AEO 2010 22.2 22.3 23.0 23.8 24.2 AEO 2011 23.1 24.2 25.0 26.0 AEO 2012 23.8 23.8 23.1 AEO 2013 24.3 23.8 AEO 2014 23.8

Actual 25.1 25.8 26.2 26.9 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 25.2 25.2 25.0 25.9 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.0 21.9 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.5 Average Absolute Difference 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.8 5.6 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.4



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 1.4 0.3 0.5 -1.0 -0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 6.8 8.1 10.7 8.4 13.9 14.7 16.8 22.5 35.5 27.1 AEO 1995 1.3 0.5 -1.6 -0.7 1.8 1.1 0.5 6.4 7.6 9.9 7.7 13.1 13.9 15.4 21.0 33.7 25.4 AEO 1996 1.4 -1.2 0.3 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.9 7.0 9.0 6.6 12.1 12.7 13.7 18.8 31.2 22.5 22.4 22.3 21.0 AEO 1997 -2.7 -2.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 6.3 7.5 9.8 7.2 12.6 13.6 15.3 20.3 32.4 23.7 23.3 22.8 21.4 AEO 1998 0.1 2.6 2.5 1.7 7.7 9.1 10.6 7.9 13.7 14.8 16.6 22.3 35.4 26.7 26.5 26.2 24.4 AEO 1999 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 6.5 7.8 9.3 6.3 12.0 13.1 15.0 20.4 33.3 25.0 24.7 24.7 23.4 AEO 2000 -2.8 -3.5 2.0 3.3 6.0 4.0 10.0 11.1 12.9 18.1 30.2 22.0 21.5 21.6 20.7 AEO 2001 -2.5 3.9 5.6 8.2 5.5 11.1 12.3 14.4 20.0 32.8 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.0 AEO 2002 -2.6 2.6 6.5 4.4 10.5 11.9 14.4 19.9 33.3 25.7 26.9 27.1 26.2 AEO 2003 1.1 3.8 1.4 5.9 7.0 9.3 15.2 28.5 21.8 23.1 23.9 23.2 AEO 2004 -1.9 -3.7 3.3 4.7 6.6 11.9 23.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.2 AEO 2005 -1.5 4.1 5.0 6.2 11.9 24.1 15.8 15.8 15.5 14.0 AEO 2006 1.1 1.5 4.8 9.6 20.9 13.0 13.1 12.9 11.6 AEO 2007 1.4 2.7 7.6 19.1 11.5 11.2 10.7 9.2 AEO 2008 1.3 7.6 15.6 9.4 9.9 9.0 6.8 AEO 2009 4.6 6.5 -3.5 -1.5 -0.6 -1.0 AEO 2010 1.6 -5.6 -3.5 -1.0 -1.1 AEO 2011 -2.2 1.5 4.1 6.3 AEO 2012 -0.3 -1.1 -5.5 AEO 2013 0.9 -2.9 AEO 2014 -2.6 Average Absolute Percent Difference 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.1 5.3 6.0 7.8 5.4 9.5 9.8 11.0 15.7 25.7 17.9 15.7 14.8 13.8 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 2.4. Comparisons through AEO 2002 have been adjusted for the AER 2001 revision to industrial energy consumption that was not incoporated in the earlier projections.

## Table 20. Total Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 AEO 1995 23.3 24.0 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 AEO 1996 23.9 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 AEO 1997 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 AEO 1998 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.3 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.9 AEO 1999 25.4 26.0 27.0 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8 AEO 2000 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.5 32.9 33.4 33.9 AEO 2001 26.8 27.5 28.3 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.3 32.9 33.4 33.9 34.4 AEO 2002 27.5 28.0 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.3 32.0 32.8 33.5 34.3 34.9 35.6 AEO 2003 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.0 34.8 35.6 AEO 2004 27.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.2 30.9 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.5 34.2 AEO 2005 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.7 30.4 31.2 31.8 32.5 33.1 33.6 AEO 2006 28.1 28.4 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.2 AEO 2007 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.3 30.8 31.2 AEO 2008 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.9 AEO 2009 27.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.8 AEO 2010 27.0 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.3 AEO 2011 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 AEO 2012 27.1 27.3 27.4 AEO 2013 26.7 26.8 AEO 2014 26.8

Actual 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 26.2 26.8 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.1 27.8 27.1 27.5 27.2 26.7 27.1 Average Absolute Difference 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.4 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.5 4.3



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 3.9 3.2 2.7 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.7 -1.3 1.0 0.2 1.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.5 4.1 7.9 7.3 AEO 1995 -0.3 0.8 -0.9 -0.1 -0.4 -1.6 -2.4 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 -2.0 -2.3 -2.7 -2.8 2.7 6.2 5.2 AEO 1996 0.4 -1.3 -1.0 -1.5 -2.5 -3.2 -0.7 -1.5 -0.5 -2.8 -2.9 -3.4 -3.2 2.3 5.8 4.9 7.0 9.7 8.9 AEO 1997 1.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 4.9 4.3 5.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 4.1 10.2 14.1 13.1 15.2 18.0 17.0 AEO 1998 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.4 5.7 5.6 7.4 5.6 5.9 6.4 7.2 14.2 19.3 19.1 21.9 25.6 25.0 AEO 1999 0.8 0.2 1.9 5.4 5.3 7.2 5.4 5.9 6.3 7.2 14.2 19.2 19.2 21.9 25.4 24.9 AEO 2000 1.3 1.2 4.4 4.3 6.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 6.3 13.1 18.0 18.1 21.1 24.9 25.0 AEO 2001 1.2 5.0 5.4 7.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.4 14.4 19.5 19.6 22.8 26.9 27.1 AEO 2002 4.8 4.6 7.6 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.9 15.4 21.2 21.8 26.0 30.7 31.2 AEO 2003 1.3 3.3 1.6 2.2 3.2 5.1 13.0 19.3 20.6 25.1 30.3 31.3 AEO 2004 1.2 0.8 2.2 3.0 4.1 11.2 16.5 17.0 20.7 25.4 26.1 AEO 2005 -0.2 0.5 0.9 2.3 9.6 15.2 15.8 19.5 23.8 24.1 AEO 2006 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1 6.4 11.3 11.6 15.1 18.9 18.8 AEO 2007 -1.5 -1.4 4.3 8.6 8.6 11.5 15.1 15.1 AEO 2008 -1.8 2.6 5.9 5.4 7.9 11.1 10.4 AEO 2009 0.6 1.6 1.8 4.9 7.4 6.1 AEO 2010 -0.4 -0.8 2.5 5.4 4.3 AEO 2011 -0.3 1.6 4.5 4.4 AEO 2012 -0.2 2.2 1.2 AEO 2013 0.1 -1.1 AEO 2014 -1.2 Average Absolute Percent Difference 3.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 3.6 3.4 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 8.6 12.3 11.7 14.4 17.0 16.0 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 2.5.

## Table 21. Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million metric tons) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 5060 5130 5185 5240 5287 5335 5379 5438 5482 5529 5599 5658 5694 5738 5797 5874 5925 5984 AEO 1995 5137 5174 5188 5262 5309 5361 5394 5441 5489 5551 5621 5680 5727 5775 5841 5889 5944 AEO 1996 5182 5224 5295 5355 5417 5464 5525 5589 5660 5735 5812 5879 5925 5981 6030 6087 6142 6203 6258 AEO 1997 5295 5381 5491 5586 5658 5715 5781 5863 5934 6009 6106 6184 6236 6268 6316 6365 6417 6467 AEO 1998 5474 5621 5711 5784 5893 5957 6026 6098 6192 6292 6379 6465 6542 6612 6683 6752 6801 AEO 1999 5522 5689 5810 5913 5976 6036 6084 6152 6244 6325 6418 6493 6563 6641 6703 6771 AEO 2000 5573 5692 5777 5865 5971 6078 6172 6262 6345 6420 6480 6551 6610 6678 6755 AEO 2001 5630 5781 5909 6023 6114 6197 6281 6387 6470 6541 6633 6709 6788 6881 AEO 2002 5723 5808 5981 6095 6210 6323 6438 6530 6624 6727 6839 6937 7032 AEO 2003 5633 5749 5856 5954 6095 6232 6360 6475 6602 6719 6828 6927 AEO 2004 5743 5826 5986 6124 6251 6357 6453 6559 6657 6763 6857 AEO 2005 5905 6023 6138 6274 6415 6533 6627 6721 6812 6889 AEO 2006 5967 5978 6080 6182 6281 6365 6440 6536 6595 AEO 2007 5940 5999 6059 6124 6214 6296 6369 6442 AEO 2008 5977 5983 5978 6011 6087 6144 6154 AEO 2009 5849 5699 5746 5803 5842 5858 AEO 2010 5507 5521 5643 5706 5707 AEO 2011 5643 5601 5622 5659 AEO 2012 5632 5570 5453 AEO 2013 5361 5368 AEO 2014 5421

Actual 5189 5262 5323 5510 5584 5635 5688 5868 5761 5804 5855 5975 5999 5919 6021 5835 5417 5619 5483 5267 5396 Average Absolute Difference 129 128 143 273 244 197 164 259 138 149 159 157 143 220 221 380 809 653 846 1068 938



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -4.9 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4 -7.3 -4.8 -4.7 -4.4 -5.3 -5.1 -3.1 -3.7 0.7 9.4 6.5 AEO 1995 -2.4 -2.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -8.1 -5.5 -5.4 -5.2 -5.9 -5.3 -3.2 -4.1 0.1 8.7 5.8 AEO 1996 -2.6 -5.2 -5.2 -5.0 -4.8 -6.9 -4.1 -3.7 -3.3 -4.0 -3.1 -0.7 -1.6 2.5 11.3 8.3 12.0 17.8 16.0 AEO 1997 -3.9 -3.6 -2.6 -1.8 -3.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 0.2 3.2 2.7 6.9 15.7 12.4 16.1 21.8 19.8 AEO 1998 -2.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 3.2 6.3 6.0 10.8 20.8 17.7 21.9 28.2 26.0 AEO 1999 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 2.6 3.0 3.1 1.8 2.5 5.5 5.1 10.0 19.9 16.8 21.1 27.3 25.5 AEO 2000 -2.0 -3.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.7 2.9 5.8 5.4 10.0 19.6 16.6 20.5 26.8 25.2 AEO 2001 -4.1 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.3 3.3 6.1 6.1 10.9 20.8 18.1 22.4 28.9 27.5 AEO 2002 -0.7 0.1 2.2 2.0 3.5 6.8 6.9 11.9 22.3 19.7 24.7 31.7 30.3 AEO 2003 -3.0 -1.8 -2.0 -0.8 3.0 3.5 9.0 19.5 17.5 22.5 29.6 28.4 AEO 2004 -1.9 -2.5 -0.2 3.5 3.8 8.9 19.1 16.7 21.4 28.4 27.1 AEO 2005 -1.2 0.4 3.7 4.2 9.9 20.6 17.9 22.6 29.3 27.6 AEO 2006 -0.5 1.0 1.0 5.9 15.9 13.3 17.4 24.1 22.2 AEO 2007 0.3 -0.4 3.8 13.1 10.6 14.8 20.9 19.4 AEO 2008 -0.7 2.5 10.4 7.0 11.0 16.7 14.0 AEO 2009 0.2 5.2 2.3 5.8 10.9 8.6 AEO 2010 1.7 -1.7 2.9 8.3 5.7 AEO 2011 0.4 2.1 6.7 4.9 AEO 2012 2.7 5.7 1.1 AEO 2013 1.8 -0.5 AEO 2014 0.5 Average Absolute Percent Difference 2.5 2.4 2.7 5.0 4.4 3.5 2.9 4.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 3.7 3.7 6.5 14.9 11.6 15.4 20.3 17.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 12.1.

### Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu / $Billion 2005 Chained GDP) 

### 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 AEO 1995 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 AEO 1996 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 AEO 1997 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 AEO 1998 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 AEO 1999 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 AEO 2000 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 AEO 2001 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 AEO 2002 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 AEO 2003 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 AEO 2004 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 AEO 2005 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 AEO 2006 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 AEO 2007 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 AEO 2008 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 AEO 2009 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.8 AEO 2010 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 AEO 2011 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 AEO 2012 7.1 7.0 6.7 AEO 2013 6.8 6.7 AEO 2014 6.7

Actual* 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.8 Average Absolute Difference 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5



### Projected vs. Actual (percent difference) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

AEO 1994 9.1 9.8 9.3 8.3 10.9 13.9 15.6 16.3 19.2 18.0 19.6 20.2 22.6 25.4 24.0 25.0 26.3 23.9 AEO 1995 7.6 7.0 6.1 8.3 11.1 12.8 13.3 16.1 14.9 16.2 16.5 18.8 21.7 20.6 21.7 23.1 20.8 AEO 1996 6.6 6.0 8.4 11.0 12.6 12.9 15.4 14.4 16.1 16.7 19.2 21.9 20.7 22.0 23.4 21.2 22.8 28.1 26.3 AEO 1997 2.8 6.2 9.7 11.6 12.2 15.0 14.2 16.0 16.6 19.0 21.7 20.5 21.5 22.9 20.5 22.1 27.2 25.3 AEO 1998 4.9 8.8 11.8 12.8 16.2 15.5 17.2 17.6 20.2 23.1 22.1 23.1 24.5 22.0 23.5 28.5 26.4 AEO 1999 3.9 7.9 9.6 13.2 12.2 13.4 13.3 15.3 17.6 16.1 16.7 17.7 14.9 16.4 21.1 19.4 AEO 2000 4.4 6.2 8.8 8.3 9.9 10.0 12.3 15.0 14.1 14.9 16.1 13.5 15.1 19.6 17.5 AEO 2001 -1.8 0.5 -0.5 0.8 0.9 2.5 4.4 2.9 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.9 3.9 1.6 AEO 2002 2.9 3.7 6.1 6.5 8.4 10.6 8.9 8.3 8.1 4.7 4.8 8.3 6.0 AEO 2003 1.0 2.7 2.6 4.5 6.9 5.6 5.8 6.1 3.0 3.6 7.1 4.8 AEO 2004 1.8 1.7 3.7 5.7 4.1 4.3 4.6 2.3 3.1 6.8 4.5 AEO 2005 0.0 1.7 3.8 2.4 3.4 4.0 1.3 1.9 5.3 2.7 AEO 2006 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 -1.5 -1.0 2.5 0.0 AEO 2007 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 -0.9 -0.5 2.9 0.6 AEO 2008 1.6 2.7 2.0 -1.2 -1.0 2.1 -0.6 AEO 2009 1.6 4.1 1.7 1.7 4.5 1.3 AEO 2010 1.6 0.5 1.2 4.1 1.2 AEO 2011 -1.1 -0.5 1.6 -1.4 AEO 2012 0.9 4.2 -0.1 AEO 2013 1.5 -0.4 AEO 2014 -0.5 Average Absolute Percent Difference 9.1 8.7 7.7 5.8 7.7 9.8 11.0 10.6 11.9 10.3 10.9 10.2 11.5 13.0 11.1 11.0 11.2 8.6 7.1 10.0 7.4 Sources: Projections: Annual Energy Outlook , Reference Case Projections, Various Editions. Historical Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, September 2014 Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2013/08) (Washington, DC, September 25, 2014), Table 1.1, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce, September 2014. * Actual energy intensity is now based on BEA data using 2009 chained dollars. With the update from 2005 chained dollars there was a 3.7% increase in GDP in 2005, therefore the projections are adjusted upward by this constant amount. This is necessary because BEA revises all historical years and past AEO projections were based on lower levels of GDP and could not have anticipated this increase.