Dr. Paul Mitchell and Dr. Pete Nowak

Value of Neonicotinoids

in North America
Meeting Goals

• To overview some of the results from our Neonicotinoid 

Benefits Assessment at a broad level

• Understand EPA’s and PMRA’s additional informational needs

• The assessment has generated many good questions

• Clarify some of the EPA’s and PMRA’s questions

• Receive feedback about the approach and information 

provided
A comprehensive evaluation of the economic and societal benefits of 

neonicotinoid insecticides to North American agriculture, as well as 

residential and urban landscapes

Conducted by fourteen independent PhD academics through 

AgInfomatics, LLC

Focus: clothianidin, dinotefuran, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam 

Commissioned by Bayer CropScience, Syngenta and Valent U.S.A. 

Corporation, with support from Mitsui Agrochemicals, Inc.

About The Study
Analytical framework guided by

counterfactual logic. Multiple

forms of value would be found in

response to the question: What

would happen if neonicotinoids

were not available?

 North American Agriculture

 U.S. Turf & Ornamentals

Research Strategy
Agriculture

Neonicotinoid Benefits Study Reports

Turf & Ornamental

A seventh agriculture report, An Economic Assessment of 

the Benefits of Nitroguanidine Neonicotinoid Insecticides in 

the United States and Canada was submitted January, 2015. 

All reports submitted to EPA
1. Human health concerns

2. Accelerate pest resistance

3. Reduction in yields & quality

4. Higher operating costs

5. Loss of effective pest control

6. Loss of beneficial insects & IPM

7. Impacts on local communities

8. Media report emotion, not science 

Recurring Themes

Listening Sessions
Case Study: Neonicotinoid Use in Florida Citrus

Economic and Societal Impact of Citrus Greening 

to Florida; 2006-2011

•Loss of more than 8,000 jobs

•Loss of $4.5 billion in output

•Potential loss of 76,000 remaining jobs 

•Potential loss of current $9 billion annual economic 

impact

•Irreparable harm: re-start Florida citrus highly 

unlikely after loss 

•

Neonicotinoid Protection from HLB Infection

Citrus Greening Disease (HLB)

• Huanglongbing (HLB), is an invasive bacterial 

disease spread by the Asian citrus psyllid

• Irreversible 

• Renders fruit unmarketable altogether

• Destroys trees and ultimately orchards 

• Young citrus trees are most vulnerable to HLB 

and most important to orchard viability

• Only neonicotinoids provide optimal management of HLB

• Neonicotinoid insecticides are minutely targeted, especially supporting the youngest trees, and 

sparingly applied 

• Neonicotinoid insecticides merely repel the Asian citrus psyllid from the saplings

• They are the primary tools to protect young citrus trees from HLB infection

• Alternative pesticides, such as organophosphates or pyrethroids, are significantly less effective 

• Alternatives require frequent foliar sprays of significantly higher quantities
•Early-season control of wireworms, thrips and 

plant bugs

•Critically important to IPM programs, either as a 

seed treatment or foliar spray

•Increases health and vigor of the plants when 

applied early

•Reduces spraying

•Reduces seeding rates and costs 

•Increases yields

Importance of the Cotton Industry to Farming Communities

Neonicotinoid Use in Cotton

•More broad spectrum chemicals will be used

•Loss of beneficial insects 

•More foliar sprays for secondary pest control

•Significantly higher farmgate costs

•Reduced yields 

•Likely a tipping point away from cotton production

•Re-entry costs across entire production chain 

prohibitive on ROA / ROI basis

• $25 billion in products and services annually

• Approximately 200,000 jobs nationwide

• Intensively managed, highly specialized and complex activity chain to marketable product 

• Greater economic impact to local communities than almost any other crop

• Benefits local land values, specialty equipment sales, auto/truck sales, banking, 

and insurance industries as well as ginning, shipping, warehousing, brokering, etc. 

Cotton Production Without Neonicotinoids

Case Study: Neonicotinoid Use in Mid-South Cotton
Neonicotinoids Applied To 56% Of Total U.S. 

Acres Planted To Commodity Crops
Seed Treatments Account For 98% Of Acres 

Treated With Neonicotinoids In These Crops
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Neonicotinoids Pyrethroids Organophosphates All Other Classes Scouted, Not

Treated

Higher Seeding

Density

Product Acres (1,000,000)

2010-2012 Average Non-Neonicotinoid Scenario

Reallocation Impact on Insecticide Use
Reallocation of Insecticide Use

The total pounds of insecticide

active ingredients applied to 

these crops would increase 

from 13.0 million pounds to 

28.2 million pounds, a 116 

percent increase. 
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2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

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12.00

Sorghum Corn Soybeans Winter Wheat Cotton Spring Wheat

Cost Impact ($/acre)

Average Cost per Neonicotinoid Base Acre

Projected net cost increase of $848M per year

Increased spending on insecticides = $157M

Increased spending on applications = $383M

Increased spending on foliar scouting = $210M

Increased spending on seeding/replanting = $97M

Cost Impacts
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6.00

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8.00

Corn Sorghum Cotton Soybeans Spring

Wheat

Winter

Wheat

Cost Impact ($/acre)

Average Cost per Planted Acre

Cost Impact per Planted Acre
United States: 500 corn & 500 soybean growers

Canada: 120 corn, 120 soybean & 500 canola growers

Focus on pest management practices used

Importance of non-pecuniary factors in pest management

Value of different insect management practices

Farmer Telephone Survey to Assess Value
Would Growers Use Seed Treatment If Same

Varieties Were Available Without Neonicotinoids?

Corn Soybean
Please think carefully about all the reasons why you chose to plant 

corn with an insecticidal seed treatment in 2013 and what else you 

could have done to manage insects instead of using an insecticidal 

seed treatment. Compared to these alternatives, what additional 

value would you say using an insecticidal seed treatment provided to 

you per acre of treated corn?

 Not more than $5 per acre

 More than $5, but not more than $10 per acre

 More than $10, but not more than $15 per acre

 More than $15, but not more than $25 per acre

 More than $25 per acre

Sample Value Question
United States -------- Canada --------

Corn Soybean Corn Soybean Canola

Bt Corn $19.78 $20.05

Seed Treatment $13.38 $11.93 $12.02 $14.53 $12.85

Soil Insecticide $12.92

Foliar Insecticide $14.17 $13.48 $10.06

Value Comparison - $/Treated Acre
Control Method U.S. Canada Total

Seed Treatment $1,130 $301 $1,431

Bt Corn $1,248 $56 $1,304

Foliar Insecticide $249 $57 $306

Soil Insecticide $175 --- $175

Total Grower Value (US$ Millions)

Neonicotinoid seed treatments are the most

valued insect control method based on total 

acres treated in North America
 Data from replicated small plot field experiments 

 1,550 studies generating 3,300+ observations of yield with and 

without neonicotinoid

 ~1,000 studies generating 1,600+ observations of yield with 

neonicotinoid versus insecticidal alternative

 An observation is a paired comparison of average yield by 

treatment (NNi vs UTC or NNi vs non-NNi Insecticide)

 Corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, sorghum, potato, tomato

 Publications: Journals, Arthropod Management Tests, online 

extension and research reports

 Registrants: conducted by universities and outside researchers

Yield Meta-Analysis
0

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4

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8

10

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14

16

18

20

Count

Yield Benefit

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Count

Yield Benefit

N=718 N=216

Soybean: Neonicotinoids vs UTC Soybean: Neonicotinoid vs Non-Neonicotinoid

Yield Impacts for Soybeans
Corn: Neonicotinoids vs UTC Corn: Neonicotinoid vs Non-Neonicotinoid

Yield Impacts for Corn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Count

Yield Benefit

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10

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Count

Yield Benefit

N=774 N=429
-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

SC IN VA LA TN NE IA NC AR OH MI WI GA IL MO MS MN SD ON

5 15 17 41 56 34 48 5 66 55 19 97 7 52 12 27 48 23 76

Average Yield Benefit

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

MI MN SD IA MS WI IL OH AR NE TN LA

8 26 19 28 6 24 24 8 19 12 17 9

Average Yield Benefit

Average soybean yield benefit for

neonicotinoid treatments relative

to untreated control treatments

by state/province 

Average soybean yield benefit for

neonicotinoid treatments relative

to non-neonicotinoid insecticide

treatments by state 

Example of Geographic Yield Variation - Soybeans
Significance of a 2.8% Yield Benefit in Soybeans

Based on previous yield histogram, and these yield and 

price assumptions, on average the farmer would earn 

$16.02 – $7.76 = $8.26/A. Moreover, a farmer would 

earn back at least the $7.67/A cost of the seed 

treatment 59% of the time. 

 2013 U.S. average soybean yield = 44bu/A

 2013 U.S. average marketing price = $13 bu

 2.8% X 44 bu X $13 = $16.02/A

 Minus average seed treatment cost = $7.67

The Context

A Quick Calculation
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Soybean Wheat Cotton Corn Sorghum Tomato Canola Potato

% Yield Benefit

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Soybean Cotton Wheat Corn Sorghum Canola Potato Tomato*

% Yield Benefit

Crop vs UTC vs non-NNi

Corn 17.4% 4.4%

Soybean 3.6% 0.2%

Wheat 16.8% 2.4%

Cotton 16.9% 0.7%

Sorghum 20.1% 5.9%

Canola 34.8% 9.7%

Potato 71.3% 12.6%

Tomato 23.2% *

Yield Benefits by Crop
Aggregate field-level yield & cost impacts to the market level

Allow crop prices and acreage to equilibrate to the new supply 

and profitability conditions and estimate “surplus”

Multi-market equilibrium model (AGSIM) for corn, soybean, 

wheat, cotton and sorghum

Single market Partial Equilibrium model with exports: U.S. 

potato and tomato, Canadian corn, soybeans and canola 

Market Level Analysis
Market Surplus Low High

US Commodity Crops Consumer Surplus -$4,245 -$4,596

Farm Income $351 $426

Net Surplus -$3,894 -$4,170

US Specialty Crops Consumer Surplus -$102 -$116

Farm Income -$33 -$45

Net Surplus -$135 -$161

US Total Consumer Surplus -$4,347 -$4,712

Farm Income $318 $381

Net Surplus -$4,029 -$4,331

Canada Commodity Crops Consumer Surplus -$284 -$568

Farm Income $135 $291

Net Surplus -$149 -$276

Value of Neonicotinoids (US$ Millions)
Value of neonicotinoids in U.S. ranges US$4.0 to $4.3 Billion 

annually, mostly for corn

Main impact: lower food prices for livestock, dairy, & eggs

Value of neonicotinoids in Canada ranges US$150-$275 Million 

annually, mostly for canola

Market Level Analysis Results
Without Neonicotinoids:

 Corn price increase $0.25/bu

 Wheat price increases $0.22/bu

 Total cropped acres increase 350,000-400,000 as land is 

moved into crop production from non-crop uses

 Corn acres increase 500,000 acres

 Conservation Reserve Program that retires highly 

erodible and environmentally sensitive land from crop 

production loses 225,000-250,000 acres

Market Level Results
Turf and Ornamentals
A National Survey of Homeowners

Choice Experiment methods used to measure homeowner 

attribute preferences and willingness to pay for managing 

pests in the homescape.

 Flowers & Shrubs – 6,086 contacted, 5,866 willing to 

participate, 5,800 with flowers or shrubs in yard, 2,837 

applied insecticides, and 2,698 completed survey.

 Lawn – 4,882 contacted, 4,664 willing to participate, 

4,624 had lawns, 2,678 applied insecticides, and 2,268 

completed survey.

 Tree – 8,731 contacted, 8,530 willing to participate, 

8,461 with trees in yard, 3,041 applied insecticides, and 

2,506 completed survey.
• Effectiveness of control (very high, high and medium)

• Number of applications required (1 time, 2 to 3 times, 4 or more times)

• Safety to humans, pets and wildlife (excellent, very good, or good)

• Safety to bees (high, medium, or low)

• Prevention or curative control, or both

• Sold in combination with fertilizer (yes and no)

• Flexibility in application methods (soil, foliar spray, or both)

• Speed of control (fast (in hours), medium (in days), or slow (in weeks)

• Cost per year.

Attributes of Insecticides
Summary of Values for Attributes

Top 3 Attributes Flowers & Shrubs Lawn Trees

Most Important

Prevents & cures

insect pest problems

Very high level of

effectiveness

Very high level of

effectiveness

DIY Both Pros

$40 $69 $142

DIY Both Pros

$54 $135 $266

DIY Both Pros

$51 $119 $195

2nd Most

Important

Very good safety to

humans, pets &

wildlife

Very good safety to

humans, pets &

wildlife

One application

required

DIY Both Pros

$35 $85 $81

DIY Both Pros

$51 $118 $174

DIY Both Pros

$43 $53 $76

3rd Most

Important

Medium safety to

bees

Prevents & cures

problems

Very good safety

to humans, pets &

wildlife

DIY Both Pros

$27 $35 $64

DIY Both Pros

$49 $116 $160

DIY Both Pros

$42 $83 $146

DIY = Do It Yourself, Pro = Professional, Both = DIY and Pro methods of application 
The Assessment of Professionals 

Survey of members of AmericanHORT, PLANET, Society of American 

Florists, and the Tree Care Industry Association with 750 viable 

responses.

Main area of business for respondents was trees (25%), greenhouse 

(24%), lawn (19%), nursery (15.5%), and landscape ornamentals (15.5%). 

14% said there were no acceptable alternatives to neonicotinoids, 59% 

said that there are not enough acceptable alternatives, and 27% said 

there was enough or more than enough acceptable alternatives to 

neonicotinoids.
Importance of Factors in Insecticide Selection (%)

Factor

Not

Important

Somewhat 

Important Important VeryImportant

Insecticide cost 6.4 42.7 37.7 13.2

Protecting quality of the plant 0.5 1.6 20.3 77.7

Consistent pest control 0.7 3.4 22 73.9

Convenience 3 25.5 47.6 23.9

Flexibility in application method 7.7 27.4 39.1 25.8

Pollinator safety 6.6 18.1 36.1 39.2

Safety to applicator 0.5 4.3 21.6 73.9

Safety to customer 1.8 4.1 22 72.8

Management of resistant pests 1.8 12.5 41.8 43.9
Business Factor Large

Decrease Decrease Stay theSame Increase LargeIncrease

Don’t

Know

Labor (records, training, applications) 0.3% 0.5% 28.2% 41.4% 25.5% 4.1%

More frequent applications of 

alternatives 0.3% 1.9% 15.6% 39.1% 38.5% 4.6%

Customer satisfaction 9.9% 36.6% 31.7% 6.3% 3.6% 11.8%

Ability to manage pest resistance 9.5% 34.4% 29.3% 9.5% 4.5% 12.8%

Ability to practice IPM 5.8% 26.3% 39.5% 13.4% 7.9% 7.1%

Income Impact Greenhouse Nursery Lawn Landscape

Ornamentals

Trees

Loss would reduce income 50% 65% 68% 43% 52%

Loss would not impact income 42% 27% 21% 44% 31%

Loss would increase income 8% 8% 11% 13% 16%

Impacts on Business
Case Study - Whitefly

 Neonicotinoids critical to managing Silverleaf white fly in 

greenhouses

Loss of plant material

 Increased use of older insecticides & worker exposure

 Faster development of pest resistance 

 Inability to control whitefly with spread to other crops

 Disruption of plant trade

 Higher production costs
 The Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) is a destructive invasive that is 

destroying ash trees.

 There are three options; 1) remove trees now, 2) remove dead 

trees, or 3) treat to control EAB.

 Local governments and homeowners face high costs with options 1 

& 2 (e.g., $1500 per tree).

Naperville, IL has demonstrated that EAB can be managed in costeffective way with citizens.

Case Study - EAB
 Without neonicotinoids the removable option would have been 

followed because alternatives tend to be more expensive and may 

require certified applicators.

 Involving citizen groups in learning about the options was critical to the 

final decisions by elected leaders. 

 The citizens have maintained property values and the environmental 

amenities associated with a urban forest.

Lessons From Naperville
 Chinch bugs destroy St. Augustinegrass in Florida and southern U.S., 

and they have developed resistance to other insecticides.

 There are few if any other options for controlling this pest, and 

significant costs would accrue to the lawn care industry and 

homeowners. 

 There are safety concerns for both customers and applicators if 

neonicotinoids are lost.

Case Study – Chinch Bug
Summary

 The Green Industry is an important part of our economy, and 

professionals, homeowners, and local citizens have informed us 

of the vital value of neonicotinoids to that industry. 

 The Green Industry is a service industry and is dependent on 

customer satisfaction. Contributing to this relation is one of the 

highest values of neonicotinoids. 

Neonicotinoids have multi-dimensional value. 
1. Neonicotinoids add several billion dollars to the North American 

economy, and benefit entire communities, not just farmers. 

2. Safety and satisfaction emerged as common perceived benefits for 

many of those who were part of these studies

3. Neonicotinoids protect crop yield and quality, and in some cases 

prevent catastrophic damage

4. The loss of neonicotinoids would force growers to rely on fewer older 

classes of insecticides, which would raise resistance concerns, and 

could more than quadruple total pounds applied

5. Negatively impact integrated pest management practices due to nontarget effects on beneficials with increased foliar applications

Take Home Messages
6. We used data triangulation to examine the agronomic, socioeconomic, and environmental benefits in a comprehensive 

assessment, with academic papers in preparation 

7. We have generated many good questions and several ideas for future 

research and analysis

Take Home Messages