# E**C** 

# / **R Incorporated**  **Providing Environmental Technical Support Since 1989**

501 Eastowne Dr., Suite 250  Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Telephone: (919) 484

-0222  Fax: (919) 484

-0122 

# MEMORANDUM

**DATE:** February

26 , 2013

**SUBJECT:** Residential Wood Heater Cost Effectiveness Analysis

**FROM:** Jill Mozier, EC/R Inc.

Beth Friedman, EC/R Inc.

**TO:** Gil Wood, EPA/OAQPS

David Cole, EPA/OAQPS

The purpose of this memorandum is to present our cost effectiveness (CE) analyses for emission reduction options being considered for residential wood heaters as part of the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) review of residential wood heaters. We analyzed the CE of two options: the proposed NSPS (“Proposal”) and an alternative approach (“Alternative”) that differ in the number of stepped emission limits and in the phased

-in compliance dates. These options and their underlying emission and cost assumptions have already been summarized in the emissions 1 

# , unit cost2 

# , and manufacturer cost3 

# memos. This memo will explain how we applied the derived cost and emission estimates (based on our already-documented assumptions) in our CE analyses.
**I. Application of Cost Estimates to CE Analysis** 
**A. NSPS** 

**- Related R&D, Certification, and Reporting & Recordkeeping Costs**  As noted in our manufacturer cost memo, under the Proposal scenario, one round of R&D is assumed

– beginning in 2013 and ending in 2018

– in order to meet the proposed Step 2 limit. Under the Alternative scenario, two rounds of R&D are assumed for all appliances except masonry heaters (for which there is only one standard with no additional phased

-in standards to meet). It should be noted that for the second round of R&D (in the Alternative scenario), for purposes of our CE analysis, we adjusted the annualized cost because we assumed that manufacturers would use the same lab equipment purchased for the first round of R&D. Therefore the round two annualized costs exclude the laboratory equipment cost, and consequently are estimated at $61,227 (per year for 6 years) rather than the $63,850 annual estimate for round one, as shown in Table 1.

1 

## Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from EC/R, Inc. Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. February 15, 2013. 2 

## Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances. February 21, 2013. 3 

## Memo to Gil Wood, USEPA, from EC/R, Inc. Estimated Residential Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts. February 22, 2013.

## 2



# Under both the Proposal and the Alternative, we made assumptions regarding the number of model lines that would undergo R&D and assume the related costs. In cases where we assumed less than 100% of the models would undergo R&D (e.g., wood stoves and pellet stoves), this was based on the percentage of models already meeting the proposed 2019 Step 2 limit/Alternative 2022 Step 3 limit. Inreality, more appliances than we assumed have models meeting the most stringent limit (e.g., hydronic heaters). Furthermore, manufacturers will likely consolidate their model lines, focusing on models able to achieve the limit, rather than incur R&D costs for every

existing non

-compliant model line. Notwithstanding these points, in order to reasonably estimate what might happen in our CE analyses, we assumed the following appliance model lines would incur NSPS

-related R&D costs beginning in 2013:

 95% of wood stove manufacturers (with an estimated 125 models representing both catalytic and noncatalytic designs);

 70% of pellet stove manufacturers (with an estimated 125 models);

 100% of single burn rate stove manufacturers (with an estimated 20 models) would face a doubling of R&D costs in 2013 and 2014 to represent intensification of R&D efforts for this previously

unregulated appliance ty pe;

 100% of forced air furnace manufacturers (with an estimated 50 models) would face a doubling of R&D costs in 2013 and 2014 to represent intensification of R&D efforts for this previously

unregulated appliance ty pe;

 100% of hydronic heater manufacturers (with an estimated 120 models); and

 Two large masonry

heater manufacturers (with an estimated 4 models) would incur R&D costs beginning in 2013 with 9 other large manufacturer models facing certification testing costs (spread out over the 5 year certification period), and the remaining 8 large manufacturer models and 85 small custom manufacturer models facing software certification costs beginning in 2013.

## 3 

# Table 1. Annual Cost Summary: Development of 4 Model Fireboxes

**Ro und One**  **6- ye**  **ar R&D**  **Pe ri** **od Ro**  **und T wo**  **6- ye**  **ar R&D**  **Pe ri** **od Dir** **ec t**  **Annua l Cost**  **s (DAC)** 

Operator l ab or $141, 667 An nua l sa lary cos t fr omTab le3 of the
memo ran dum" Un itCos t Es ti ma tes of Resid en ti al Wood Heatin g Appl ian ces" , sp readove r 6 year s. $141, 667

Outsid e Cons ul ta nts $26, 667 An nua l outsid e co ns ul ta ntc os t fr omTab le3 of th e memo ra ndum" Un itCos t Es ti ma tes of Resid en ti al W ood Heatin g Appl ian ces" , sp read

ove r 6 year s. $26, 667

**To ta**  **l Dir** **ec t**  **Cos ts** **(DC)** $168, 333 $168, 333

**In dir** **ec t**  **Annua l**  **Cos ts** **(I AC)** 

La bor atory Equi pm en t1,2 

## $10,490 Th e la bora to ryequi pmen t c os t of $ 50, 000 was
am orti zed over 6 year s ata n i nter es t ra te of 7%

. $0

Re-tool in g 1 

## $25, 175 Th e re-tool in g c os t of $ 120, 000 wa s am ortized
over 6 years ata n i nter es t ra te of 7 %. $25, 175

Other Ca pi ta l Cos ts 1,3 

## $51,400 Othe r ca pi ta l co sts in cl udec os ts forpr ototypes ($ 25, 000) , testfue l ($30, 000+$15, 000) , testin g
se rv ic es ($ 100, 000+$50, 000) , a nd m ar keti ng ($ 25, 000)a nd wer e amortizedove r 6 year s ata n

in ter es t ra te of 7%. $51,400

**To ta**  **l In**  **dir ec** **t Cos** **ts (I** **AC)** $87, 065 $76, 575 **Round O ne**  **Ro und T**  **wo 2** 



## To**ta l**  **Annua l Cost**  $255, 399 An nua l cos t fordevelo pmen t of 4 m ode l fi reboxes. $244, 909 **To ta**  **l Annua**  **l Cost** $63, 850 Aver age an nua l co stpe r fi re box m ode l. $61, 227

3 

## Toc ons erva ti ve lyestim ate th e ad di ti ona l cos t totes t wi th both cord wood a nd c ri b wood,thetes t fuel es ti ma te of $ 30, 000 ba sed on c ri b onl y was in creased by $15, 000 an d thetes ti ng s ervi ces es ti ma te of $ 100, 000 ba sed on cri b onl y (whi ch cove red notonl y emi ssio ns tes ti ng buta lsoeffi ci en cy an d s afetytes ti ng) was in creased by $50, 000. 1 

## Ana mo rtizatio n pe ri od of 6 year s for l ab ora to ry eq ui pmen t, reto ol in g a nd other cap ital cos ts was chos en ba sed on i ndus try's estim ate th ata pproxi ma tel y 6 year s of R&D a rer eq ui red to bri ng a produc t tomar ket

.

2

## I t is as su med tha t th e sam e la b equi pmen t can beus edforr ound twoR&D, s o ther ound twoc os ts excl udethe labequi pmen t co st

.

## 4



# For the Alternative scenario, we made the further assumption that by 2017 all manufacturers (except masonry heater manufacturers who face only one stepped NSPS limit under both the Proposal and Alternative) would begin a second round of R&D for 80% of their models (i.e., we assumed that only 20% of models achieve the strictest limit in the first round of R&D). This meant that during 2017 and 2018, we assumed an overlapping period of NSPS

related R&D amortized costs. As noted in the manufacturer cost memo, all manufacturers, except for wood stoves that are subject to the current 1988 NSPS, will face ongoing certification costs above baseline conditions. However, in the 2013 to 2018 timeframe under the Proposal scenario and in the 2013 to 2022 timeframe under the Alternative scenario, we have incorporated these costs as part of the overall R&D expenditures. After 2018 under the Proposal scenario and after 2022 under the Alternative scenario, the ongoing certification costs will be the only NSPS related costs faced by manufacturers besides ongoing reporting and recordkeeping costs. We based reporting and recordkeeping (R&R) costs on the annual average costs derived from development of the Information Collection Request (ICR) supporting statements4 

# . These
are annual estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with the Proposal and Alternative scenarios. (We do not expect the R&R burden to differ substantially between the two scenarios.)

**B. Model Design Lifespan** 

We assumed a 20

-year model design lifespan. We made this assumption to best characterize the actual model design lifespan given that many models developed for the 1988 NSPS are still being sold (after 25 years), and many “new” models still have the same internal working parts with merely exterior cosmetic changes. Therefore, beyond the 6

-year amortization period of the round(s) of R&D, we estimated the certification and reporting and recordkeeping costs to be incurred by manufacturers for the full 20

-year model design lifespan

. Under the Proposal, we estimated costs from 2013 through 2038

– that is, 20 years after the 2019 compliance year marking the beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet the Proposal Step 2 limit. Under the Alternative, we estimated costs from 2013 through 2041

– that is, 20 years after the 2022 compliance year marking the beginning of the model lifespan designed to meet the Alternative Step 3 limit.

**II. Application of Emission Estimates to CE Analysis** 
**A. Baseline and NSPS emission estimates** 

As noted in our emissions memo, we multiplied our tons/appliance emission estimate by the estimated number of shipments in each year to calculate total emissions from each appliance category per year. We made this calculation under baseline conditions (i.e., in the absence of an NSPS) and under each NSPS scenario (Proposal and Alternative). The emission estimates assume that the total number of shipped units meet the standard in the year the standard is implemented. This simplifying assumption means that we underestimated how soon emission reductions will happen under both NSPS scenarios. In reality, some models will meet the NSPS

4 

## ICR Supporting Statements for the Proposed NSPS Subparts have not been finalized as of the date of this memo.

## 5



# limits prior to the NSPS compliance year and will therefore be emitting less than baseline levels prior to that year as well. Our emission estimates represent the assumption that models do not come into compliance until the year they are required to; therefore we do not claim emission reductions from either NSPS scenario until each compliance year. Furthermore, based on available data for wood stoves and pellet stoves, we assumed that baseline emissions for both of these appliance ty

pes are already

at the Step 1 level. We therefore claimed no emission reductions for wood stoves and pellet stoves until the 2019 Step 2 under the Proposal and the 2017 Step 2 under the Alternative.

**B. Appliance Emitting Lifespan**  As noted above, we assumed a 20

-year model design lifespan for estimating costs. We also assumed a 20

-year appliance emitting lifespan. This assumption was made to best characterize the actual use lifespan given that most stoves in consumer homes emit for at least 20 years and often much longer. Our CE analysis therefore tracks emission reductions out through 2057 for the Proposal and through 2060 for the Alternative, assuming a 20 year design life for a model meeting each phased

-in limit, and assuming that stoves shipped in the 20th 

# year of design life will be emitting in homes for another 20 years. Note that our CE analysis incorporates “trailing emissions” as part of our 20 year lifespan assumptions. For example, our analysis assumes that a stove shipped in 2014 will emit in homes for 20 years

– or until 2033 (inclusive of both 2014 and 2023). We therefore drop emissions from this stove in our analysis in year 2034. Likewise, we drop emissions for a stove shipped in 2015 in year 2035, and so on.

**III. Resulting CE Tables**  Tables 2 through 9 show the results of our CE analyses based on PM2.5 

# reductions under the Proposal for each appliance, for appliances grouped by subparts AAA (Room Heaters) and QQQQ (Central Heaters), and for Subparts AAA and QQQQ combined. Tables 10 through 17 show the results of our CE analyses based on PM2.5 

# reductions under the Alternative. Each table shown is based on a 7% interest rate applied to the amortized costs during the R&D periods. We also prepared tables based on a 3% interest rate. Finally, we prepared both sets of tables based on VOC emissions and based on CO emissions.
Note that, as of the date of this memo, we did not calculate the CE for masonry heaters because we were unable to estimate the tons of emissions per appliance for this appliance ty pe; so while we estimated the NSPS

-related costs we did not estimate baseline or NSPS related emissions.

## 6 Base lin e PM2. 5 

### Em issions 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2.5



### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CE b ase d on

nati onwide average
an nual cost (perton) Base line PM2.5



### Em issions (tons) NSPS PM 2.5



### Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 

### $5, 466, 157 $16, 034, 510 $3, 908, 837 2014 4 

### $5, 466, 157 $16, 034, 510 $3, 908, 837 1, 549 935 614 $6, 370 1, 549 935 614 2015 4 

### $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $3, 908, 837 1, 580 954 626 $6, 245 3, 129 1, 889 1, 240 2016 4 

### $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $3, 908, 837 1, 611 973 638 $6, 123 4, 740 2, 862 1, 878 2017 4 

### $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $3, 908, 837 1, 644 992 651 $6, 003 6, 384 3, 854 2, 529 2018 4 

### $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $3, 908, 837 1, 677 1, 012 664 $5, 885 8, 060 4, 867 3, 193 2019 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 710 374 1, 336 $2, 927 9, 770 5, 241 4, 529 2020 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 744 382 1, 362 $2, 869 11, 514 5, 623 5, 891 2021 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 779 390 1, 390 $2, 813 13, 294 6, 013 7, 281 2022 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 815 397 1, 417 $2, 758 15, 108 6, 410 8, 698 2023 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 851 405 1, 446 $2, 704 16, 959 6, 815 10, 144 2024 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 888 413 1, 475 $2, 651 18, 847 7, 229 11, 618 2025 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 926 422 1, 504 $2, 599 20, 773 7, 651 13, 122 2026 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 1, 964 430 1, 534 $2, 548 22, 737 8, 081 14, 657 2027 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 004 439 1, 565 $2, 498 24, 741 8, 519 16, 221 2028 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 044 448 1, 596 $2, 449 26, 785 8, 967 17, 818 2029 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 085 456 1, 628 $2, 401 28, 869 9, 423 19, 446 2030 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 126 466 1, 661 $2, 354 30, 995 9, 889 21, 106 2031 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 169 475 1, 694 $2, 308 33, 164 10, 364 22, 800 2032 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 212 484 1, 728 $2, 262 35, 376 10, 848 24, 528 2033 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 256 494 1, 762 $2, 218 37, 632 11, 342 26, 290 2034 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 301 504 1, 798 $2, 175 38, 385 10, 911 27, 474 2035 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 348 514 1, 833 $2, 132 39, 153 10, 471 28, 681 2036 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 394 524 1, 870 $2, 090 39, 936 10, 023 29, 913 2037 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 442 535 1, 908 $2, 049 40, 735 9, 565 31, 169 2038 $0 $526, 534 $3, 908, 837 2, 491 546 1, 946 $2, 009 41, 549 9, 098 32, 451 2039 39, 839 8, 724 31, 115 2040 38, 095 8, 342 29, 753 2041 36, 316 7, 952 28, 364 2042 34, 501 7, 555 26, 946 2043 32, 650 7, 150 25, 501 2044 30, 762 6, 736 24, 026 2045 28, 836 6, 315 22, 522 2046 26, 872 5, 884 20, 988 2047 24, 869 5, 446 19, 423 2048 22, 825 4, 998 17, 827 2049 20, 740 4, 542 16, 199 2050 18, 614 4, 076 14, 538 2051 16, 445 3, 601 12, 844 2052 14, 233 3, 117 11, 117 2053 11, 977 2, 623 9, 354 2054 9, 675 2, 119 7, 557 2055 7, 328 1, 605 5, 723 2056 4, 934 1, 080 3, 853 2057 2, 491 546 1, 946

$101, 629, 772 362, 045 $281 CEbas ed on total
cost & cumul ati ve emission re duction
over20-ye ar stov e lifespa n ( pe r ton)

3

### 2013 co sts assume manufacturers wi ll be gi n R&D phase a nd begin ce rti fying models in anti ci pati on of the 2014 ru le co mpliance date . Emi ssions in2013, however, are not inc lu ded in thi s analysi s because it i s pri or to the ru le compl ia nce date. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Re duction over

20-ye ar stove lifespa n Emi ssi on Reducti on, cumul ati ve p erye ar Annual S napshots **Tab le**  **2. DRAF** **T Cost Ef fe**  **cti ve**  **ne ss (CE) base**  **d on annual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.**  **5**

### e **mi ssions from**  **Room He ate**  **rs ( Wood**  **St ove**  **s, Pellet** **Stove s,**  **an d**  **Si ngle B** **urn Rate Stove**  **s)**

Nati onwide cumul ati ve co st5

5

### Th e nati onwide cu mulative co st re pre sents the co st to manufacture rs re sul ti ng from the R&D re -design to me et the p roposed NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti fication and reporti ng & re cordke eping costs to bri ng these stove s to marke t from 2013 t hrough 2038. The se stoves have l ifespa ns of 20 yea rs ( a conse rvati ve e sti mate ); thus stoves shipped in2038 w ill be emitting through 2057. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost

1

### Estimated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2010 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-year amorti zation pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7% i ntere st rate( during 2013- 2018 ) , plus an nual ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdkee pi ng costs ( ongoi ng through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 t hrough 2057 are p ast the 20-ye ar mode l de si gn lifespa n used in thi s analysi s. 2

### Estimated annual e mi ssi ons arebased on a forecasted re ve nue growth rate( as a surrogatefor shi pme nts) of 2 .0 %f rom 2011 t hrough 2038, i n ke eping with the ave rage annual growth i n re al GDPp re dicte d by the USBu re au ofEco nomi c A na lysi s ( 2013 Gl obal Outl ook projecti ons prepa re d by the Conference Bo ard i n N ovember2012; s ee http://www.confere nce -board.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm ).

4

### Estimated emi ssi ons assume Step 1 standard become s appl icabl e in2014 an d Ste p 2standard in 2019. F or woodstove s and pellet stoves, estimates co nservatively assume t hat most model s al re adym eett he Ste p 1l im itan d that manufacture rs wi ll ce rti fy an d sel l existingmodel s me eting Step 1 standard f rom 2014 t hrough 2018.Th erefo re n o e mission re ducti ons
aree stimated to resul t f rom woodstove s and pellet stoves unti l Ste p 2i n 2019.

## 7 Base lin e PM2. 5 

### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Em issions 2 

### (tons) Em issi on

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwi de average
an nual co st (p er ton) Base lin e PM2. 5



### Em issi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 2014 4 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 505 505 0 N/A 505 505 0 2015 4 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 515 515 0 N/A 1, 021 1, 021 0 2016 4 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 526 526 0 N/A 1, 546 1, 546 0 2017 4 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 536 536 0 N/A 2, 082 2, 082 0 2018 4 

### $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $1, 749, 726 547 547 0 N/A 2, 629 2, 629 0 2019 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 558 202 356 $4, 914 3, 187 2, 831 356 2020 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 569 206 363 $4, 818 3, 756 3, 037 719 2021 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 580 210 370 $4, 723 4, 336 3, 247 1, 090 2022 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 592 214 378 $4, 631 4, 928 3, 461 1, 468 2023 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 604 218 385 $4, 540 5, 532 3, 679 1, 853 2024 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 616 223 393 $4, 451 6, 148 3, 902 2, 246 2025 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 628 227 401 $4, 363 6, 776 4, 129 2, 647 2026 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 641 232 409 $4, 278 7, 417 4, 361 3, 056 2027 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 654 236 417 $4, 194 8, 071 4, 597 3, 473 2028 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 667 241 426 $4, 112 8, 737 4, 838 3, 899 2029 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 680 246 434 $4, 031 9, 417 5, 084 4, 333 2030 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 694 251 443 $3, 952 10, 111 5, 335 4, 776 2031 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 707 256 452 $3, 875 10, 818 5, 591 5, 227 2032 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 722 261 461 $3, 799 11, 540 5, 852 5, 688 2033 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 736 266 470 $3, 724 12, 276 6, 118 6, 158 2034 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 751 272 479 $3, 651 12, 522 5, 885 6, 637 2035 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 766 277 489 $3, 580 12, 772 5, 646 7, 126 2036 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 781 283 499 $3, 509 13, 027 5, 403 7, 624 2037 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 797 288 509 $3, 441 13, 288 5, 155 8, 133 2038 $0 $0 $1, 749, 726 813 294 519 $3, 373 13, 554 4, 902 8, 652 2039 12, 996 4, 700 8, 295 2040 12, 427 4, 495 7, 932 2041 11, 847 4, 285 7, 562 2042 11, 255 4, 071 7, 184 2043 10, 651 3, 852 6, 799 2044 10, 035 3, 629 6, 405 2045 9, 407 3, 402 6, 004 2046 8, 766 3, 170 5, 595 2047 8, 112 2, 934 5, 178 2048 7, 446 2, 693 4, 753 2049 6, 766 2, 447 4, 319 2050 6, 072 2, 196 3, 876 2051 5, 365 1, 940 3, 424 2052 4, 643 1, 679 2, 964 2053 3, 907 1, 413 2, 494 2054 3, 156 1, 142 2, 015 2055 2, 390 865 1, 526 2056 1, 609 582 1, 027 2057 813 294 519

$45, 492, 874 96, 523 $471 **Tab le 3**  **DRAF T C** **ost Effe cti** **veness (CE)**  **base d**  **on annual and cumulative PM**  **2.5**

### e **missi ons from W**  **ood Stoves**

Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em issi on Re duction, cu mulati ve per year CEb ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20- year stove lifespa n (per

t on)

1

### Esti mate d nati onwide annual costs arei n 2010 $ an d areb ase d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on period of R&D co sts at a 7% interest rate( duri ng 2013- 2018 ) , plus an nual ce rti ficati on an d
re porti ng & re cordkee ping co sts (ongoing through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 t hrough 2057 a repast the20-ye ar mode l design lifespan used in this an al ysis.
2

### Esti mate d annual e missions arebase d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogatefor shi pme nts) of2. 0 %f rom 2011 thro ugh 2038, i n k eep ingw it h the ave rageannual g rowth in re al GDPpre dicted by the US Bure au ofEco nomicAnal ysis (2013 Gl obal Ou tl ook projections prepared by the Co nfe re nce Board i n N ove mber 2012;s ee http://www.conferen ce
board.org/data/gl obaloutlook.cfm)

. 3

### 2013 co sts assume manufacturers wi ll be gi n R&D phasean d begi n ce rti fyingm ode ls inanti ci pati on ofthe 2014 r ule compl ia nced ate

. Em issions in 2013,h owever, arenot i ncl uded in this anal ysis be cau se it is pri or to theru le compl ia nced ate

. 4

### Esti mate d emissi ons assume Step 1 standard be come s ap plicabl e in 2014 a nd Step 2 standard i n 2019. For woodstoves, estimates conse rvati ve ly assume that most mode lsal re ady meetth e Step 1l imit and that manufacturers wi ll ce rti fy an d s ell exist ing mode ls meet ing Step 1 standard duri ng 2014 th ro ugh 2018. The re fore no e mi ssion reducti ons are e stimated until Ste p 2 i n 2019. 5

### The nati onwide cumul ati ve co st re pre se nts the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-cau se d ce rti ficati on an d re porti ng &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stoves to market from 2013 through 2038. Th ese stove s have l ifespans of 20 yea rs( a conse rv ati ve esti mate ); thus stove s shi pped in 2038 w ill be
em itting through 2057. Cumulative Em ission Reducti on over 20-year stove

lifespa n Nationwi de cumulative co st5

## 8 Base lin e PM 2.5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emission

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (perton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emissions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Em ission

Reducti on (tons) 2013 3 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 2014 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 184 184 0 N/A 184 184 0 2015 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 187 187 0 N/A 371 371 0 2016 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 191 191 0 N/A 563 563 0 2017 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 195 195 0 N/A 758 758 0 2018 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $1, 702, 796 199 199 0 N/A 957 957 0 2019 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 203 95 108 $15, 771 1, 160 1, 052 108 2020 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 207 97 110 $15, 462 1, 367 1, 148 218 2021 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 211 99 112 $15, 159 1, 578 1, 247 330 2022 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 215 101 115 $14, 861 1, 793 1, 348 445 2023 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 220 103 117 $14, 570 2, 013 1, 451 562 2024 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 224 105 119 $14, 284 2, 237 1, 556 681 2025 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 229 107 122 $14, 004 2, 465 1, 663 803 2026 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 233 109 124 $13, 730 2, 699 1, 772 927 2027 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 238 111 127 $13, 460 2, 936 1, 883 1, 053 2028 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 243 114 129 $13, 196 3, 179 1, 997 1, 182 2029 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 247 116 132 $12, 938 3, 426 2, 112 1, 314 2030 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 252 118 134 $12, 684 3, 679 2, 231 1, 448 2031 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 257 120 137 $12, 435 3, 936 2, 351 1, 585 2032 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 263 123 140 $12, 191 4, 199 2, 474 1, 725 2033 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 268 125 142 $11, 952 4, 466 2, 599 1, 867 2034 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 273 128 145 $11, 718 4, 556 2, 543 2, 012 2035 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 279 130 148 $11, 488 4, 647 2, 486 2, 161 2036 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 284 133 151 $11, 263 4, 740 2, 428 2, 312 2037 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 290 136 154 $11, 042 4, 835 2, 368 2, 466 2038 $0 $453, 909 $1, 702, 796 296 138 157 $10, 826 4, 931 2, 308 2, 623 2039 4, 728 2, 213 2, 515 2040 4, 521 2, 116 2, 405 2041 4, 310 2, 017 2, 293 2042 4, 095 1, 916 2, 178 2043 3, 875 1, 814 2, 062 2044 3, 651 1, 709 1, 942 2045 3, 422 1, 602 1, 821 2046 3, 189 1, 493 1, 697 2047 2, 951 1, 381 1, 570 2048 2, 709 1, 268 1, 441 2049 2, 462 1, 152 1, 310 2050 2, 209 1, 034 1, 175 2051 1, 952 913 1, 038 2052 1, 689 791 899 2053 1, 421 665 756 2054 1, 148 537 611 2055 870 407 463 2056 586 274 312 2057 296 138 157

$44, 272, 694 29, 269 $1, 513 **Tabl e**  **4. DRAF** **T Cost Effective ne**  **ss (CE) base d on annual**  **and cumulati ve** **PM 2.5** **e missions fr** **om Pellet Stove s** 

1Esti mated nati onwide annual costs are i n 2010 $ and areb ase d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2013- 2018 ) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdkeeping costs (ongoing through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 th rough 2057 are past the 20- year mode l design lifespa n used in this analysis.

2Esti mated annual e mi ssions areb ase d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0 %f ro m 2011 th rough 2038, i n ke ep ing with the ave rage annual growth in re al GDPp re dicte d by the U S Bu re au of Economi c A nal ysis (2013 Gl obal Outl ook projecti ons pre pa re d by the Conference Board in November 2012;s ee http://www.conferenceboa rd.org/data/gl oba loutlook.cfm ).

32013 co sts assume manufacture rsw ill begin R&D phase an d begin ce rti fyin g mode ls inanti ci pati on of the 2014 ru le co mplia nce date

. Emi ssions in 2013, howe ve r, are not i ncl uded in this anal ysis because iti s priorto the rul e compl ia nce d ate

. Ye ar Annua l

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annua l Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumulati ve pe r year

4Esti mated e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s ap plicab le in 2014 an d Step 2 standard i n 2019. F or p elletstoves, estimates conse rvatively assume that most mode lsal re ady meet the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacture rs w ill ce rti fy an d sell existi ng mode ls meeting Step 1 standard duri ng 2014 th rough 2018. There fore no emission re ducti ons are e stimate d unti l Ste p 2 i n 2019. 5The n ationwide cumul ati ve cost re presents the cost to manufacture rsre sul ti ng from the R&D re -design to me et the propose d NSPS and the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng &
re co rdkeeping costs to bri ng the se stove s to market f rom 2013 th rough 2038

. The se stove s have l ifespans of 20 ye ars (a conse rvative estimate); thus stoves shi ppe d in2038 w ill be

em itti ng through 2057. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over20-yea r stove lifesp an ( pe r ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve cost 5 Cumul ati ve Em ission Re ducti on ove r 20-yea r stove

lifespa n

## 9 Bas eline PM 2. 5 

### Em issions 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual cost (perton) Base line PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on ( tons) 2013 3 

### $881, 775 $2, 586, 611 $456, 316 2014 4 

### $881, 775 $2, 586, 611 $456, 316 860 246 614 $744 860 246 614 2015 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $456, 316 877 251 626 $729 1, 737 497 1, 240 2016 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $456, 316 895 256 638 $715 2, 631 753 1, 878 2017 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $456, 316 912 261 651 $701 3, 544 1, 014 2, 529 2018 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $456, 316 931 266 664 $687 4, 474 1, 281 3, 193 2019 4 

### $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 949 78 872 $524 5, 424 1, 359 4, 065 2020 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 968 79 889 $513 6, 392 1, 438 4, 954 2021 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 988 81 907 $503 7, 379 1, 519 5, 861 2022 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 007 82 925 $493 8, 387 1, 601 6, 786 2023 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 027 84 943 $484 9, 414 1, 685 7, 729 2024 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 048 86 962 $474 10, 462 1, 771 8, 691 2025 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 069 88 981 $465 11, 531 1, 859 9, 673 2026 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 090 89 1, 001 $456 12, 622 1, 948 10, 674 2027 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 112 91 1, 021 $447 13, 734 2, 039 11, 695 2028 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 134 93 1, 042 $438 14, 868 2, 132 12, 736 2029 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 157 95 1, 062 $430 16, 025 2, 227 13, 799 2030 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 180 97 1, 084 $421 17, 206 2, 323 14, 882 2031 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 204 99 1, 105 $413 18, 410 2, 422 15, 988 2032 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 228 101 1, 127 $405 19, 638 2, 522 17, 115 2033 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 253 103 1, 150 $397 20, 890 2, 625 18, 265 2034 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 278 105 1, 173 $389 21, 308 2, 483 18, 824 2035 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 303 107 1, 196 $381 21, 734 2, 339 19, 395 2036 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 329 109 1, 220 $374 22, 169 2, 192 19, 977 2037 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 356 111 1, 245 $367 22, 612 2, 042 20, 570 2038 $0 $72, 625 $456, 316 1, 383 113 1, 270 $359 23, 064 1, 888 21, 176 2039 22, 115 1, 811 20, 304 2040 21, 147 1, 731 19, 415 2041 20, 159 1, 651 18, 509 2042 19, 152 1, 568 17, 584 2043 18, 124 1, 484 16, 640 2044 17, 076 1, 398 15, 678 2045 16, 007 1, 311 14, 697 2046 14, 917 1, 221 13, 696 2047 13, 805 1, 130 12, 674 2048 12, 670 1, 037 11, 633 2049 11, 513 943 10, 571 2050 10, 333 846 9, 487 2051 9, 129 747 8, 382 2052 7, 901 647 7, 254 2053 6, 649 544 6, 104 2054 5, 371 440 4, 931 2055 4, 068 333 3, 735 2056 2, 739 224 2, 514 2057 1, 383 113 1, 270

$11, 864, 204 236, 254 $50 **Tabl e**  **5. DRAFT Cost Effe**  **cti ve**  **ness (CE) base**  **d on annual and cumulative PM**  **2.5**

### e **mi ssions from Single Burn Rate** **Stove s** 

1

### Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2010 $ an d are base d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on period of R&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate( duri ng 2013- 2018 ) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re cordk eeping costs (ongoi ng through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 t hrough 2057 arep ast the 20-year model desi gn l ifespa n used in thi s anal ysis.
2

### Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a forecaste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 t hrough 2038, i n ke eping wi th the average annual growth i n
re al GDPpre dicte d by the USBure au ofEconomi c A nal ysis (2013 Gl obal O utl ook projections prepared by the Confe re nce Board i n November 2012;s ee http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obaloutlook.cfm ).

3

### 2013 co sts assume manufacture rs wi ll begin R&D phase an d be gi n ce rti fying models in anti ci pati on of the 2014 ru le compl ia nce date

. Emi ssi ons i n 2013, h owever, aren ot i ncl uded in thi s anal ysis because i t i s pri or to the rul e compl ia nce date

. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve peryea r

4

### Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s applicabl e in 2014 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2019. 5

### The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre sents the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -de sign to me etthe propose d NSPS and the N SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng &
re cord keeping costs to bri ng the se stoves to marke t f rom 2013 through 2038. The se stoves have lifespa ns of 20 years (aconse rv ati ve estimate ); thus stove s shipped in 2038 w ill be emitting through 2057. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over20-yea r stove lifespa n ( per ton)

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost 5 

### Cumulative Emi ssi on Re ducti on over20-year stove

lifespa n

## 10 Base line PM 2. 5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) Emi ssi on

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5



### Em issions (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 

### $4, 829, 241 $14, 166, 171 $3, 392, 772 2014 4 

### $4, 829, 241 $14, 166, 171 $3, 392, 772 4, 038 825 3, 213 $1, 056 4, 038 825 3, 213 2015 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $3, 392, 772 4, 119 842 3, 277 $1, 035 8, 157 1, 667 6, 490 2016 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $3, 392, 772 4, 201 858 3, 343 $1, 015 12, 358 2, 525 9, 833 2017 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $3, 392, 772 4, 285 876 3, 410 $995 16, 643 3, 401 13, 242 2018 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $3, 392, 772 4, 371 893 3, 478 $976 21, 014 4, 294 16, 720 2019 4 

### $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 458 89 4, 369 $777 25, 472 4, 383 21, 089 2020 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 547 91 4, 456 $761 30, 019 4, 474 25, 545 2021 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 638 93 4, 546 $746 34, 658 4, 567 30, 091 2022 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 731 95 4, 636 $732 39, 389 4, 661 34, 727 2023 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 826 97 4, 729 $717 44, 214 4, 758 39, 457 2024 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 4, 922 98 4, 824 $703 49, 137 4, 856 44, 280 2025 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 021 100 4, 920 $690 54, 157 4, 957 49, 201 2026 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 121 102 5, 019 $676 59, 278 5, 059 54, 219 2027 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 224 104 5, 119 $663 64, 502 5, 164 59, 338 2028 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 328 107 5, 221 $650 69, 830 5, 270 64, 560 2029 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 435 109 5, 326 $637 75, 264 5, 379 69, 886 2030 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 543 111 5, 432 $625 80, 808 5, 490 75, 318 2031 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 654 113 5, 541 $612 86, 462 5, 603 80, 859 2032 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 767 115 5, 652 $600 92, 229 5, 718 86, 511 2033 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 5, 883 118 5, 765 $589 98, 111 5, 836 92, 276 2034 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 6, 000 120 5, 880 $577 100, 074 5, 131 94, 943 2035 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 6, 120 122 5, 998 $566 102, 075 4, 411 97, 664 2036 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 6, 243 125 6, 118 $555 104, 117 3, 678 100, 439 2037 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 6, 367 127 6, 240 $544 106, 199 2, 930 103, 269 2038 $0 $799, 249 $3, 392, 772 6, 495 130 6, 365 $533 108, 323 2, 166 106, 156 2039 103, 865 2, 077 101, 787 2040 99, 317 1, 986 97, 331 2041 94, 679 1, 894 92, 785 2042 89, 948 1, 799 88, 149 2043 85, 122 1, 702 83, 420 2044 80, 200 1, 604 78, 596 2045 75, 179 1, 504 73, 676 2046 70, 058 1, 401 68, 657 2047 64, 835 1, 297 63, 538 2048 59, 507 1, 190 58, 317 2049 54, 072 1, 081 52, 991 2050 48, 529 971 47, 558 2051 42, 875 857 42, 017 2052 37, 108 742 36, 365 2053 31, 225 625 30, 601 2054 25, 225 504 24, 720 2055 19, 105 382 18, 723 2056 12, 862 257 12, 605 2057 6, 495 130 6, 365

$88, 212, 079 1, 184, 357 $74 Ye ar Annual

Capital Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nati onwide

Average Annua l Cost Annual S napshots Emi ssi on Re duction, cumulative per yea r

Nationwi de cumulative cost 5 

### Cumulati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on over

20- year stove lifespa n **Tabl e**  **6. DRAFT Cost Eff ec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE)**  **base d on annual and cumulative** **P M**  **2.5**

### e **missions from Ce ntral**  **He ate**  **rs (Force d Ai**  **r F urnaces and Hydronic He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms)**

5

### Th e nationwi de cu mulati ve cost re presents the cost to manufacture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to me et the propose d NSPS and the N SPS-ca used ce rti ficati on and reporti ng & re cordke eping costs to bring these stoves to ma rke t from 2013 through 2038.These stoves have lifespa ns of 20 ye ars (a conse rvati ve estimate); thus stoves shi pped in 2038 w ill be emittingthrough 2057. 1

### Esti mated nationwide annual costs are i n 2010 $ an d are base d on a 6-yea r am orti zati on perio d of R&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate ( durin g 2013- 2018 ) , pl us annual ce rti ficati on and
re porting & re cordke eping costs (ongoi ng through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 t hrough 2057 are past the 20- year mode l design lifes pan used in thi s anal ysi s. 2

### Esti mated annual e mi ssions are b ase d on a fore casted re venue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 through 2038, i n ke epingwith the average annual growth in re al GDP pre di ct ed by the US Bure au ofEconomi c A nalysis (2013 Gl obal Outl ook projections prepared by the Conference Board i n November 2012; s ee http://www.conference-board.org/data/global outlook.cfm ).

3

### 2013 costs assume m anufacturers wi ll begin R&D phase and be gin certi fyingmode ls in anti ci pati on of the 2014 rul e compli ance date. E missions in 2013,how ever, are n ot in cl ude d i n this anal ysis because i t i s prior to the rul e co mplia nce d ate.

4

### Esti mated e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s appl icable in 2014 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2019. CE base d on total

co st & cumul ati ve
em ission reducti on
over 20- yea r stove lifespa n (pe r ton)

## 11 Base line PM 2.5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NS PS PM 2.5



### Em issions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) CEbase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM 2.5



### Em issions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re duction (tons) 2013 3 

### $2, 188, 588 $6, 420, 038 $1, 171, 222 2014 4 

### $2, 188, 588 $6, 420, 038 $1, 171, 222 2, 809 702 2, 106 $556 2, 809 702 2, 106 2015 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 171, 222 2, 865 716 2, 149 $545 5, 673 1, 418 4, 255 2016 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 171, 222 2, 922 731 2, 192 $534 8, 595 2, 149 6, 446 2017 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 171, 222 2, 980 745 2, 235 $524 11, 576 2, 894 8, 682 2018 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 171, 222 3, 040 760 2, 280 $514 14, 616 3, 654 10, 962 2019 4 

### $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 101 62 3, 039 $385 17, 717 3, 716 14, 001 2020 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 163 63 3, 100 $378 20, 880 3, 779 17, 100 2021 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 226 65 3, 162 $370 24, 106 3, 844 20, 262 2022 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 291 66 3, 225 $363 27, 396 3, 910 23, 487 2023 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 356 67 3, 289 $356 30, 753 3, 977 26, 776 2024 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 424 68 3, 355 $349 34, 177 4, 045 30, 131 2025 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 492 70 3, 422 $342 37, 669 4, 115 33, 554 2026 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 562 71 3, 491 $336 41, 231 4, 186 37, 044 2027 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 633 73 3, 561 $329 44, 864 4, 259 40, 605 2028 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 706 74 3, 632 $322 48, 570 4, 333 44, 236 2029 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 780 76 3, 704 $316 52, 349 4, 409 47, 941 2030 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 856 77 3, 778 $310 56, 205 4, 486 51, 719 2031 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 3, 933 79 3, 854 $304 60, 138 4, 564 55, 573 2032 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 011 80 3, 931 $298 64, 149 4, 645 59, 504 2033 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 092 82 4, 010 $292 68, 241 4, 726 63, 514 2034 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 173 83 4, 090 $286 69, 605 4, 108 65, 498 2035 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 257 85 4, 172 $281 70, 997 3, 477 67, 521 2036 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 342 87 4, 255 $275 72, 417 2, 833 69, 584 2037 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 429 89 4, 340 $270 73, 866 2, 177 71, 689 2038 $0 $235, 073 $1, 171, 222 4, 517 90 4, 427 $265 75, 343 1, 507 73, 836 2039 72, 242 1, 445 70, 797 2040 69, 079 1, 382 67, 698 2041 65, 853 1, 317 64, 536 2042 62, 562 1, 251 61, 311 2043 59, 206 1, 184 58, 022 2044 55, 782 1, 116 54, 667 2045 52, 290 1, 046 51, 244 2046 48, 728 975 47, 754 2047 45, 095 902 44, 193 2048 41, 389 828 40, 562 2049 37, 609 752 36, 857 2050 33, 754 675 33, 079 2051 29, 821 596 29, 225 2052 25, 810 516 25, 294 2053 21, 718 434 21, 284 2054 17, 545 351 17, 194 2055 13, 288 266 13, 022 2056 8, 946 179 8, 767 2057 4, 517 90 4, 427

$30, 451, 763 823, 770 $37 **Tabl e**  **7. DRAFT Cost Ef fec** **tiveness (CE** **) ba sed**  **on a nnual and cumulative** **P M**  **2. 5** 

### e **mi ssions**  **fr om Force**  **d Ai r F**  **urnace s** 

1

### Esti mate d nati onwide an nual costs are i n 2010 $ an d are base d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on period of R&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate ( during 2013- 2018 ) , pl us annual ce rtificati on and
re porting & re co rdkeeping costs (o ngoi ng through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 th rough 2057 are p ast the 20-yea r mode l design lifes pan used in t his anal ysis.

2

### Esti mate d annual e missi ons are b ase d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shipments) of 2 .0 %f rom 2011 t hrough 2038,i n keeping with the ave rage annual growth in re al GDPpre di ct ed by the USBure au of Economi c A nalysis (2013 Gl obal Outl ook proj ections pre pa re d by the Conference Board i n November 2012; s ee http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm ).

3

### 2013 co sts assume manufacture rs wi ll begin R&D phase and be gi n ce rtifying mode lsi n anti ci pation of the 2014 rul e compl ia nce d ate

. Emi ssi ons in 2013, h owever, a re n ot in cl uded in this anal ysis be cause i t ispri or to the rul e co mplia nce d ate

. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwi de

Annual Cost 1 

### Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve per ye ar

4

### Esti mate d em issions a ssume Step 1 standard be co mes appl icable in 2014 an d Ste p 2standard i n 2019. 5

### Th e nationwi de cumulative cost re pre se nts the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -design to me et the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused certificati on and re porting &
re cordke eping costs to bring these stoves to marke t from 2013 th rough 2038.These stoves have lifesp ans of 20 yea rs( a conse rvati ve e stimate );thus stoves shipped in 2038 w ill be emitting through 2057. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re duction
ove r 20-yea r stove lifespa n (per

ton)

Nationwide cumul ati ve cost 5 

### Cumulative Emi ssi on Reduction over 20-yea r stove

lifes pan

## 12 Base line PM2.5 

### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Em ission

Re duction (tons) CEb as ed on

nationwide
av erage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM2. 5



### Em issions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Em is sions (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 2013 3 

### $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 2014 4 

### $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 1, 229 123 1, 106 $2, 008 1, 229 123 1, 106 2015 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 1, 254 125 1, 129 $1, 968 2, 483 248 2, 235 2016 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 1, 279 128 1, 151 $1, 930 3, 762 376 3, 386 2017 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 1, 305 130 1, 174 $1, 892 5, 067 507 4, 560 2018 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $2, 221, 551 1, 331 133 1, 198 $1, 855 6, 398 640 5, 758 2019 4 

### $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 357 27 1, 330 $1, 670 7, 755 667 7, 088 2020 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 384 28 1, 357 $1, 637 9, 140 695 8, 445 2021 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 412 28 1, 384 $1, 605 10, 552 723 9, 829 2022 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 440 29 1, 412 $1, 574 11, 992 752 11, 241 2023 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 469 29 1, 440 $1, 543 13, 461 781 12, 680 2024 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 499 30 1, 469 $1, 513 14, 960 811 14, 149 2025 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 529 31 1, 498 $1, 483 16, 489 842 15, 647 2026 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 559 31 1, 528 $1, 454 18, 048 873 17, 175 2027 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 590 32 1, 559 $1, 425 19, 638 905 18, 734 2028 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 622 32 1, 590 $1, 397 21, 260 937 20, 323 2029 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 655 33 1, 621 $1, 370 22, 915 970 21, 945 2030 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 688 34 1, 654 $1, 343 24, 603 1, 004 23, 599 2031 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 721 34 1, 687 $1, 317 26, 324 1, 038 25, 286 2032 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 756 35 1, 721 $1, 291 28, 080 1, 073 27, 006 2033 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 791 36 1, 755 $1, 266 29, 871 1, 109 28, 762 2034 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 827 37 1, 790 $1, 241 30, 468 1, 023 29, 445 2035 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 863 37 1, 826 $1, 217 31, 078 935 30, 143 2036 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 901 38 1, 863 $1, 193 31, 699 845 30, 854 2037 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 939 39 1, 900 $1, 169 32, 333 753 31, 580 2038 $0 $564, 176 $2, 221, 551 1, 977 40 1, 938 $1, 146 32, 980 660 32, 320 2039 31, 622 632 30, 990 2040 30, 238 605 29, 633 2041 28, 826 577 28, 249 2042 27, 385 548 26, 838 2043 25, 916 518 25, 398 2044 24, 418 488 23, 929 2045 22, 889 458 22, 431 2046 21, 330 427 20, 903 2047 19, 739 395 19, 345 2048 18, 117 362 17, 755 2049 16, 463 329 16, 133 2050 14, 775 296 14, 480 2051 13, 054 261 12, 793 2052 11, 298 226 11, 072 2053 9, 507 190 9, 317 2054 7, 680 154 7, 526 2055 5, 817 116 5, 700 2056 3, 916 78 3, 838 2057 1, 977 40 1, 938

$57, 760, 316 360, 587 $160 **Tabl e**  **8. DRAFT Cost Effe**  **ctivene ss (CE)**  **base d**  **on annual and cumulati ve** **P M**  **2.5**

### e **mi ssi**  **ons from Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms**

1

### Esti mate d nati onwide annual costs are i n 2010 $ and are base d on a 6-ye ar amorti zation period ofR&D costs at a 7% interest rate ( duri ng 2013- 2018 ) , plus annual ce rti ficati on an d reporti ng & re co rd ke ep ing co sts (o ngoing through 2038) . Ye ars 2039 th ro ugh 2057 a re past the 20-year model de si gn l ifes pa n use d i n thi s anal ysi s. 2

### Esti mate d an nual em issions are base d on a forecasted re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for s hi pme nts) of 2. 0 % from 2011 th ro ugh 2038,i n keeping with the ave rage annual growth in re al GDPp re di cte d by the US Bu re au of Eco nomic Analysis (2013 Gl obal O utlook proj ecti ons prep are d by the Conferen ceBoard i n November 2012;s ee http://www.confe re nce -b oard.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm ).
3

### 2013 costs as sume manufact urers wi ll begin R&D phase and be gi n ce rti fy in g mode ls in an ti ci pation ofth e 2014 ru le compliance date

. Emi ssions in 2013, howeve r,are n ot i nclu ded in thi s anal ysis becau se i t is prior to the rul e co mpl ia nce date. Ye ar Annua l

Capital Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumulative per y ear

4

### Esti mate d emi ssi ons assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s appl icab le in2014 an d Step 2 in 2019. 5

### Th e nati onwide cumulative co st re prese nts the co st to manufacturers resul ti ng from the R&D re -design to me etthe proposed NSPS an d the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordkee ping costs to bri ng these stove s to marke t f ro m 2013 t hrough 2038. Th es e stoves have lifesp ans of 20 y ea rs( a conse rv ati ve estimate ); thus stoves shipped in 2038 w ill be

em itting through 2057. CEbase d on total

co st & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20- ye ar stove lifes pa n (per

t on)

Nati onwide cumulati ve co st5 

### Cumulative Emi ssion Reduction ove r 20- ye ar stove

lifespan

## 13 Bas eline PM 2. 5 

### Em issions 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Em issions 2 

### (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) CE b ase d on

nati onwi de

av erage annual co st (per ton) Base lin e PM 2. 5



### Em issions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Em issions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 

### $10, 295, 398 $30, 200, 681 $7, 301, 610 2014 4 

### $10, 295, 398 $30, 200, 681 $7, 301, 610 5, 587 1, 760 3, 827 $1, 908 5, 587 1, 760 3, 827 2015 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $7, 301, 610 5, 699 1, 795 3, 903 $1, 871 11, 285 3, 556 7, 730 2016 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $7, 301, 610 5, 812 1, 831 3, 981 $1, 834 17, 098 5, 387 11, 711 2017 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $7, 301, 610 5, 929 1, 868 4, 061 $1, 798 23, 026 7, 255 15, 771 2018 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $7, 301, 610 6, 047 1, 905 4, 142 $1, 763 29, 074 9, 161 19, 913 2019 4 

### $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 168 464 5, 705 $1, 280 35, 242 9, 624 25, 618 2020 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 292 473 5, 819 $1, 255 41, 534 10, 097 31, 437 2021 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 417 482 5, 935 $1, 230 47, 951 10, 579 37, 372 2022 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 546 492 6, 054 $1, 206 54, 497 11, 071 43, 425 2023 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 677 502 6, 175 $1, 182 61, 174 11, 573 49, 600 2024 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 810 512 6, 298 $1, 159 67, 984 12, 085 55, 899 2025 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 6, 946 522 6, 424 $1, 137 74, 930 12, 607 62, 323 2026 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 085 533 6, 553 $1, 114 82, 016 13, 140 68, 876 2027 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 227 543 6, 684 $1, 092 89, 243 13, 683 75, 560 2028 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 372 554 6, 818 $1, 071 96, 614 14, 237 82, 377 2029 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 519 565 6, 954 $1, 050 104, 133 14, 802 89, 331 2030 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 669 576 7, 093 $1, 029 111, 803 15, 379 96, 424 2031 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 823 588 7, 235 $1, 009 119, 626 15, 967 103, 659 2032 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 7, 979 600 7, 380 $989 127, 605 16, 566 111, 039 2033 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 139 612 7, 527 $970 135, 744 17, 178 118, 566 2034 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 302 624 7, 678 $951 138, 459 16, 042 122, 417 2035 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 468 636 7, 831 $932 141, 228 14, 883 126, 345 2036 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 637 649 7, 988 $914 144, 052 13, 701 130, 352 2037 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 810 662 8, 148 $896 146, 933 12, 495 134, 439 2038 $0 $1, 325, 783 $7, 301, 610 8, 986 675 8, 311 $879 149, 872 11, 265 138, 607 2039 143, 704 10, 801 132, 903 2040 137, 412 10, 328 127, 084 2041 130, 995 9, 846 121, 149 2042 124, 449 9, 354 115, 095 2043 117, 772 8, 852 108, 920 2044 110, 962 8, 340 102, 622 2045 104, 016 7, 818 96, 198 2046 96, 930 7, 286 89, 645 2047 89, 703 6, 742 82, 961 2048 82, 332 6, 188 76, 143 2049 74, 812 5, 623 69, 189 2050 67, 143 5, 047 62, 096 2051 59, 320 4, 459 54, 862 2052 51, 341 3, 859 47, 482 2053 43, 202 3, 247 39, 955 2054 34, 900 2, 623 32, 277 2055 26, 433 1, 987 24, 446 2056 17, 796 1, 338 16, 458 2057 8, 986 675 8, 311

$189, 841, 851 1, 546, 402 $123 **Tabl e**  **9. DRAFT C ost Ef** **fec ti** **veness (CE** **) base**  **d on annual and cumulative PM**  **2.5**

### e **missions from Ce ntral**  **He ate**  **rs ( Force**  **d Air Furnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms) and Room He ate**  **rs (Wo** **od Stove s,**  **Pellet Stove**  **s, and Single** **Burn Rate Stove**  **s)**

CEbas ed on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20-year stove lifespan (per

ton) Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r ye ar

Nationwide cumulative cost 5 

### Cumulative Emi ssion Re ducti on over 20-yea r stove

lifespa n

5

### Thenati onwide cumulative cost re pre sents the cost to manufacture rsre sulting from the R&D re -desi gn to me ettheproposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused certi ficati on an d re porti ng & re cord keeping costs to bri ng the se stoves to marke t f rom 2013 t hrough 2038. Th ese stoves have l ifespa ns of 20 yea rs( a co nservative e sti mate );thus stoves shipped in 2038 w ill be emitting through 2057. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 

### Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1

### Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts arei n 2010 $ and arebase d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate ( duri ng 2013- 2018 ) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and

re porti ng & re cord keeping co sts (ongoi ng through 2038)

. Ye ars 2039 th rough 2057 arep ast the20-yea r mode l design lifespan use d i n thi s an al ysi s.
2

### Esti mate d annual e mi ssions arebase d on a fore caste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for s hipments) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 th rough 2038, i n k eeping with the ave rageannual growth i n re al GDPpre dicte d by the USBure au of Economi c A nal ysis (2013 Gl obal Outl ook projections prepared by the Conference Board i n Nove mbe r 2012; s ee http://www.confe re nce -board.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm)

. 3

### 2013 co sts assume manufacturers wi ll begin R&D phaseand be gi n ce rti fying models inanti ci pati on of the 2014 r ule compl ia nce date

. Emi ssions in 2013, however, arenot i ncl uded in thi s anal ysis becau se iti s pri or to theru le co mpl ia nced ate

. 4

### Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s applicabl e in 2014 a nd Step 2standard i n 2019. N o e mi ssi on re ducti ons aree stimated to re sul t f rom woodstoves and pe llet stoves until 2019, al though e mi ssi on re ducti ons aree stimate d for al l other devicesstarti ng i n 2014 .

## 14 Basel ine PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) CE based on

nati onwide average annual cost (p erton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 $5, 466, 157 $16, 034, 510 $5, 828, 073 2014 4 $5, 466, 157 $16, 034, 510 $5, 828, 073 1, 549 935 614 $9, 498 1, 549 935 614 2015 4 $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $5, 828, 073 1, 580 954 626 $9, 311 3, 129 1, 889 1, 240 2016 4 $5, 030, 830 $14, 757, 517 $5, 828, 073 1, 611 973 638 $9, 129 4, 740 2, 862 1, 878 2017 $8, 808, 721 $25, 839, 640 $5, 828, 073 1, 644 692 951 $6, 125 6, 384 3, 554 2, 829 2018 $8, 808, 721 $25, 839, 640 $5, 828, 073 1, 677 706 971 $6, 005 8, 060 4, 260 3, 800 2019 $3, 898, 751 $11, 436, 657 $5, 828, 073 1, 710 720 990 $5, 887 9, 770 4, 980 4, 790 2020 $3, 898, 751 $11, 436, 657 $5, 828, 073 1, 744 735 1, 010 $5, 772 11, 514 5, 715 5, 800 2021 $3, 898, 751 $11, 436, 657 $5, 828, 073 1, 779 749 1, 030 $5, 659 13, 294 6, 464 6, 830 2022 $3, 898, 751 $11, 436, 657 $5, 828, 073 1, 815 397 1, 417 $4, 112 15, 108 6, 861 8, 247 2023 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 1, 851 405 1, 446 $4, 031 16, 959 7, 267 9, 692 2024 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 1, 888 413 1, 475 $3, 952 18, 847 7, 680 11, 167 2025 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 1, 926 422 1, 504 $3, 875 20, 773 8, 102 12, 671 2026 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 1, 964 430 1, 534 $3, 799 22, 737 8, 532 14, 205 2027 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 004 439 1, 565 $3, 724 24, 741 8, 971 15, 770 2028 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 044 448 1, 596 $3, 651 26, 785 9, 418 17, 366 2029 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 085 456 1, 628 $3, 580 28, 869 9, 875 18, 994 2030 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 126 466 1, 661 $3, 510 30, 995 10, 340 20, 655 2031 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 169 475 1, 694 $3, 441 33, 164 10, 815 22, 349 2032 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 212 484 1, 728 $3, 373 35, 376 11, 300 24, 076 2033 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 256 494 1, 762 $3, 307 37, 632 11, 794 25, 839 2034 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 301 504 1, 798 $3, 242 38, 385 11, 362 27, 023 2035 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 348 514 1, 833 $3, 179 39, 153 10, 923 28, 230 2036 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 394 524 1, 870 $3, 116 39, 936 10, 474 29, 462 2037 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 442 535 1, 908 $3, 055 40, 735 10, 317 30, 418 2038 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 491 546 1, 946 $2, 995 41, 549 10, 156 31, 393 2039 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 541 556 1, 985 $2, 937 42, 380 9, 992 32, 388 2040 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 592 568 2, 024 $2, 879 43, 228 9, 826 33, 402 2041 $0 $526, 534 $5, 828, 073 2, 644 579 2, 065 $2, 823 44, 092 9, 655 34, 437 2042 42, 278 9, 258 33, 020 2043 40, 427 8, 853 31, 574 2044 38, 539 8, 439 30, 100 2045 36, 613 8, 017 28, 596 2046 34, 649 7, 587 27, 061 2047 32, 645 7, 149 25, 497 2048 30, 601 6, 701 23, 900 2049 28, 517 6, 245 22, 272 2050 26, 391 5, 779 20, 612 2051 24, 222 5, 304 18, 918 2052 22, 010 4, 820 17, 190 2053 19, 753 4, 326 15, 428 2054 17, 452 3, 822 13, 630 2055 15, 105 3, 308 11, 797 2056 12, 710 2, 783 9, 927 2057 10, 268 2, 248 8, 019 2058 7, 777 1, 703 6, 074 2059 5, 236 1, 146 4, 089 2060 2, 644 579 2, 065

$169, 014, 114 384, 206 $440 **10. DRAFT Cost Eff** **ecti ve**  **ness (CE) ba sed** **on annual and cumulative P**  **M 2.5** **e missions from Room He** **ate rs** **( Wo** **od Stove s,**  **Pellet Stove**  **s, and Singl**  **e Burn Rate** **Stoves)**

Nati onwide cumulati ve cost 5

5The n ati onwide cu mulati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rsre sul ti ng f rom theR&D round( s) to me ett he p ropose d NSPS and theN SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdkeeping costs to bri ng the se stoves to marke t from 2013 t hrough 20 41. The se stoves have l ifespans of 20 yea rs (a conservati ve est imate );t hus stoves shipped in2041 w ill be

em itti ng through 2060. Ye ar Annual

Capital Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost

1Esti mate d nati onwi de annual costs arei n 2010 $ an d are base d on 6-year amorti zation pe ri ods of R&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2013- 2018 for round oneR&D and 2017- 2022 fo r round two R&D) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and reporting & re co rdke eping co sts (ongoing through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 t hrough 2060 arepast the20-year mode l de si gn l ifespa n used inthis anal ysi s. 2Esti mate d annual emi ssions are b ase d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate( asa surrogatefor shi pments) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 th rough 2041, i n ke epingw it h the av erage annual growth i n re al GDP pre di ct ed by the US Bure au ofEco nomic Analysi s ( 2013 Gl obal Outl ook projections prepare d by the Conference Board i n November 2012;s ee http://www.conference-board.org/data/gl obaloutlook.c fm ).

4Esti mate d emi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s applicabl e in 2014, Ste p 2 standard in 2017, and Ste p 3 standard i n 2022.F or woodstove s and pe lletstoves, est imates conservativel y assumethat most mode ls meet Ste p 1 and that manufacturers wi ll ce rti fy and se ll existing mode ls me eting Ste p 1 f rom 2014 through 2016. Th erefore no em ission reductions are e stimated to re sult from woodstove s and pe lletstove s unti l Ste p 2 i n 2017. CEb ase d on total
co st & cumul ati ve
em ission re duction
over 20-year stove lifespan (per ton)

32013 co sts assumemanufacture rs wi ll be gin R&D phaseand be gi n ce rti fying model s i n anticipation of the 2014 ru le compl ia nce d ate. Emi ssi ons in 2013,h owever, are not incl ude d inthis anal ysi s be cause i t i s pri or to theru le compl ia nce d ate. Cumulative Emi ssion Re duction over

20-yea r stove lifespan Emi ssion Reduction, cumul ati ve pe r ye ar Annual Snapshots

## 15 Basel ine PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) CE b as ed on

nati onwide

av erage annual cost (p erton) Base lin e PM 2.5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Em issions (tons) Emissi on

Reducti on (tons) 2013 3 $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $2, 772, 151 2014 4 $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $2, 772, 151 505 505 0 N/A 505 505 0 2015 4 $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $2, 772, 151 515 515 0 N/A 1, 021 1, 021 0 2016 4 $2, 584, 750 $7, 582, 146 $2, 772, 151 526 526 0 N/A 1, 546 1, 546 0 2017 $4, 567, 621 $13, 398, 730 $2, 772, 151 536 373 163 $16, 982 2, 082 1, 919 163 2018 $4, 567, 621 $13, 398, 730 $2, 772, 151 547 380 167 $16, 649 2, 629 2, 300 330 2019 $1, 982, 871 $5, 816, 584 $2, 772, 151 558 388 170 $16, 323 3, 187 2, 688 500 2020 $1, 982, 871 $5, 816, 584 $2, 772, 151 569 396 173 $16, 003 3, 756 3, 083 673 2021 $1, 982, 871 $5, 816, 584 $2, 772, 151 580 404 177 $15, 689 4, 336 3, 487 849 2022 $1, 982, 871 $5, 816, 584 $2, 772, 151 592 214 378 $7, 336 4, 928 3, 701 1, 227 2023 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 604 218 385 $7, 193 5, 532 3, 919 1, 613 2024 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 616 223 393 $7, 051 6, 148 4, 142 2, 006 2025 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 628 227 401 $6, 913 6, 776 4, 369 2, 407 2026 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 641 232 409 $6, 778 7, 417 4, 601 2, 816 2027 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 654 236 417 $6, 645 8, 071 4, 838 3, 233 2028 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 667 241 426 $6, 514 8, 737 5, 079 3, 659 2029 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 680 246 434 $6, 387 9, 417 5, 325 4, 093 2030 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 694 251 443 $6, 262 10, 111 5, 575 4, 535 2031 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 707 256 452 $6, 139 10, 818 5, 831 4, 987 2032 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 722 261 461 $6, 018 11, 540 6, 092 5, 448 2033 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 736 266 470 $5, 900 12, 276 6, 359 5, 917 2034 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 751 272 479 $5, 785 12, 522 6, 125 6, 397 2035 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 766 277 489 $5, 671 12, 772 5, 887 6, 885 2036 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 781 283 499 $5, 560 13, 027 5, 643 7, 384 2037 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 797 288 509 $5, 451 13, 288 5, 559 7, 729 2038 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 813 294 519 $5, 344 13, 554 5, 472 8, 082 2039 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 829 300 529 $5, 239 13, 825 5, 384 8, 441 2040 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 845 306 540 $5, 137 14, 101 5, 294 8, 807 2041 $0 $0 $2, 772, 151 862 312 550 $5, 036 14, 383 5, 202 9, 181 2042 13, 791 4, 988 8, 803 2043 13, 188 4, 770 8, 418 2044 12, 572 4, 547 8, 025 2045 11, 943 4, 320 7, 624 2046 11, 303 4, 088 7, 215 2047 10, 649 3, 852 6, 797 2048 9, 982 3, 610 6, 372 2049 9, 302 3, 365 5, 938 2050 8, 609 3, 114 5, 495 2051 7, 901 2, 858 5, 044 2052 7, 180 2, 597 4, 583 2053 6, 444 2, 331 4, 113 2054 5, 693 2, 059 3, 634 2055 4, 927 1, 782 3, 145 2056 4, 146 1, 500 2, 647 2057 3, 349 1, 211 2, 138 2058 2, 537 918 1, 619 2059 1, 708 618 1, 090 2060 862 312 550

$80, 392, 378 102, 431 $785
1Estimated nati onwide annual co sts arei n 2010 $ an d arebase d on 6-year amorti zati on periods of R&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate( durin g 2013- 2018 for round one R&D and 2017- 2022 for
ro und two R&D) , plus annual ce rtificati on and re porti ng & re cordkee pi ng costs (ongoing through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 t hrough 2060 arepast the 20-yea r model d esign lifespan used i n thi s
an al ysis.
2Estimated annual e mi ssions are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogatefor shi pme nts) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 th ro ugh 2041, i n keeping with the average annual g ro wth in re al GDPp re di ct ed by the US Bureau ofEco nomic Analysi s (2013 Gl obal Outl ook projecti ons prepared by the Conference Board i n November 2012;se e http://www.confe re nce
board.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm ).

32013 co sts assume manufacturers wi ll begin R&D p hase and begi n ce rti fying models inantici pati on of the 2014 ru le compli an ce d ate

. Emi ssions in 2013, how ever, arenot i nclude d i n this anal ysis because i t is prio r to theru le compli ance date

. 4Estimated emi ssions as sume Step 1standard becomes appli cabl e in2014, Ste p 2standard in 2017, an d Step 3 standard i n 2022.For woodstove s, esti mates conse rv ati vely assume t hat most model s me et the Ste p 1 l im it an d that manufacturers wi ll ce rti fy an d se ll exist in g mode ls meet in g Ste p 1d uri ng 2014 t hrough 2016. The re fore no emi ssion reducti ons are est im ate d unti l Step 2 i n 2017.
5Thenationwi de cumulati ve co st re pres en ts the cost to manufacturers resul ti ng from the R&D round(s) t o me etthe p ro posed NS PS an d the NSPS-caused certi ficati on and re porti ng &
re co rd keeping costs to bri ng these stoves to market from 2013 t hrough 2041. The se stove s have l ifes pa ns of20 y ea rs ( a conse rvati ve e sti mate); thus stoves shi pped in2041 w ill be emitti ng through 2060. Cumulati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on over

20-year stove lifes pa n Nati onwide cumul ati ve cost5 **11. DRAF T Cost Eff** **ectivene ss (CE)**  **ba sed on annual and cumul**  **ati ve**  **P M**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions fr** **om W ood Stove**  **s**

Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwi de

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, cumulati ve per ye ar CEbase d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20- year stove lifes pa n ( pe r to n)

## 16 Base line PM 2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Reducti on (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide

av erage annual cost (p erton) Basel in e PM 2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $2, 441, 029 2014 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $2, 441, 029 184 184 0 N/A 184 184 0 2015 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $2, 441, 029 187 187 0 N/A 371 371 0 2016 4 $1, 999, 632 $5, 865, 753 $2, 441, 029 191 191 0 N/A 563 563 0 2017 $3, 460, 695 $10, 151, 657 $2, 441, 029 195 176 20 $125, 135 758 738 20 2018 $3, 460, 695 $10, 151, 657 $2, 441, 029 199 179 20 $122, 682 957 917 39 2019 $1, 568, 074 $4, 599, 813 $2, 441, 029 203 183 20 $120, 276 1, 160 1, 100 60 2020 $1, 568, 074 $4, 599, 813 $2, 441, 029 207 186 21 $117, 918 1, 367 1, 286 80 2021 $1, 568, 074 $4, 599, 813 $2, 441, 029 211 190 21 $115, 606 1, 578 1, 476 102 2022 $1, 568, 074 $4, 599, 813 $2, 441, 029 215 101 115 $21, 304 1, 793 1, 577 216 2023 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 220 103 117 $20, 887 2, 013 1, 680 333 2024 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 224 105 119 $20, 477 2, 237 1, 785 452 2025 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 229 107 122 $20, 076 2, 465 1, 892 574 2026 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 233 109 124 $19, 682 2, 699 2, 001 698 2027 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 238 111 127 $19, 296 2, 936 2, 112 824 2028 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 243 114 129 $18, 918 3, 179 2, 226 953 2029 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 247 116 132 $18, 547 3, 426 2, 341 1, 085 2030 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 252 118 134 $18, 183 3, 679 2, 459 1, 219 2031 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 257 120 137 $17, 826 3, 936 2, 580 1, 356 2032 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 263 123 140 $17, 477 4, 199 2, 703 1, 496 2033 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 268 125 142 $17, 134 4, 466 2, 828 1, 638 2034 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 273 128 145 $16, 798 4, 556 2, 772 1, 784 2035 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 279 130 148 $16, 469 4, 647 2, 715 1, 932 2036 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 284 133 151 $16, 146 4, 740 2, 657 2, 083 2037 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 290 136 154 $15, 829 4, 835 2, 617 2, 218 2038 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 296 138 157 $15, 519 4, 931 2, 576 2, 355 2039 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 302 141 160 $15, 215 5, 030 2, 535 2, 495 2040 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 308 144 164 $14, 916 5, 130 2, 492 2, 638 2041 $0 $453, 909 $2, 441, 029 314 147 167 $14, 624 5, 233 2, 449 2, 784 2042 5, 018 2, 348 2, 669 2043 4, 798 2, 245 2, 553 2044 4, 574 2, 141 2, 433 2045 4, 345 2, 034 2, 312 2046 4, 112 1, 925 2, 188 2047 3, 874 1, 813 2, 061 2048 3, 632 1, 700 1, 932 2049 3, 384 1, 584 1, 801 2050 3, 132 1, 466 1, 666 2051 2, 875 1, 345 1, 529 2052 2, 612 1, 223 1, 390 2053 2, 344 1, 097 1, 247 2054 2, 071 969 1, 102 2055 1, 793 839 954 2056 1, 508 706 803 2057 1, 219 570 648 2058 923 432 491 2059 621 291 331 2060 314 147 167

$70, 789, 844 31, 060 $2, 279

4Esti mate d e missions assume Ste p 1 standard become s appl icabl e in 2014, Ste p 2 standard in 2017, and Step 3 standard i n 2022. F or p elletstoves, estimate s conservati ve lyassume t hat most mode ls meet the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacture rs w ill ce rtify and sel l existi ng mode lsm eet ingStep 1 d uri ng 2014 t hrough 2016. Th erefore no emi ssi on re ducti ons are e stimate d until Ste p 2 i n 2017.
5Th e nati onwide cumul ati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D round( s) to meet the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused certi ficati on and reporti ng &
re cordke eping co sts to bri ng these stoves to marke t from 2013 t hrough 2041.The se stoves have l ifespans of20 y ears ( a conservati ve e stimate );thus stove s shippe d in 2041 w ill be emitti ng through 2060. CE base d on total

co st & cumul ative emission re ducti on over 20- year

stove lifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve cost 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on ove r 20-yea r stove

lifespan **12. DRAF** **T Cost Effe cti**  **ve ne**  **ss ( CE** **) based on annual and cumulative** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **missions from Pe llet**  **Stoves**

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2010 $ an d are based on 6-year amorti zati on pe riods of R&D costs at a 7%i nte re st rate ( during 2013- 2018 for round one R&D and 2017- 2022 for round two R&D), plus annual ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs (ongoing through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 th rough 2060 arep ast the 20- year mode l desig n lifes pan use d i n this

an alysis.

2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are based on a fore caste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for s hi pme nts) of 2 .0

%f rom 2011 t hrough 2041,i n keeping wit h the av erage an nual growth inre al GDP pre di cted by the US Bure au ofEco nomi c Anal ysis (2013 Gl obal O utl ook proje ct io ns prepare d by the Confe re nce Board i n N ovember 2012;s ee http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obaloutlook.cfm ).

32013 co sts assume manufacturers w ill be gin R&D phase and be gi n ce rti fyingmodel s in an tici pati on ofthe 2014 ru le compl ia nced ate . Emi ssi ons i n 2013, h owever, are not i ncluded in thi s anal ysis be cau se i t i s prior to the ru le compl ia nce date. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em ission Re ducti on, cumul ati ve per ye ar

## 17 Base line PM2.5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nationwi de
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 2013 3 $881, 775 $2, 586, 611 $614, 893 2014 4 $881, 775 $2, 586, 611 $614, 893 860 246 614 $1, 002 860 246 614 2015 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $614, 893 877 251 626 $982 1, 737 497 1, 240 2016 $446, 448 $1, 309, 618 $614, 893 895 256 638 $963 2, 631 753 1, 878 2017 4 $780, 405 $2, 289, 254 $614, 893 912 144 769 $800 3, 544 897 2, 647 2018 $780, 405 $2, 289, 254 $614, 893 931 147 784 $784 4, 474 1,043 3, 431 2019 $347, 806 $1, 020, 261 $614, 893 949 149 800 $769 5, 424 1,193 4, 231 2020 $347, 806 $1, 020, 261 $614, 893 968 152 816 $754 6, 392 1,345 5, 046 2021 $347, 806 $1, 020, 261 $614, 893 988 155 832 $739 7, 379 1,501 5, 878 2022 4 $347, 806 $1, 020, 261 $614, 893 1, 007 82 925 $665 8, 387 1,583 6, 803 2023 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 027 84 943 $652 9, 414 1,667 7, 747 2024 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 048 86 962 $639 10, 462 1,753 8, 709 2025 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 069 88 981 $626 11, 531 1,841 9, 690 2026 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 090 89 1, 001 $614 12, 622 1,930 10, 692 2027 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 112 91 1, 021 $602 13, 734 2,021 11, 713 2028 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 134 93 1, 042 $590 14, 868 2,114 12, 754 2029 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 157 95 1, 062 $579 16, 025 2,209 13, 817 2030 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 180 97 1, 084 $567 17, 206 2,305 14, 900 2031 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 204 99 1, 105 $556 18, 410 2,404 16, 006 2032 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 228 101 1, 127 $545 19, 638 2,504 17, 133 2033 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 253 103 1, 150 $535 20, 890 2,607 18, 283 2034 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 278 105 1, 173 $524 21, 308 2,466 18, 842 2035 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 303 107 1, 196 $514 21, 734 2,321 19, 413 2036 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 329 109 1, 220 $504 22, 169 2,174 19, 995 2037 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 356 111 1, 245 $494 22, 612 2,141 20, 471 2038 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 383 113 1, 270 $484 23, 064 2,108 20, 956 2039 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 411 115 1, 295 $475 23, 526 2,074 21, 452 2040 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 439 118 1, 321 $465 23, 996 2,039 21, 957 2041 $0 $72, 625 $614, 893 1, 468 120 1, 347 $456 24, 476 2,004 22, 472 2042 23, 469 1,921 21, 547 2043 22, 441 1,837 20, 604 2044 21, 393 1,752 19, 642 2045 20, 324 1,664 18, 660 2046 19, 234 1,575 17, 659 2047 18, 122 1,484 16, 638 2048 16, 987 1,391 15, 596 2049 15, 830 1,296 14, 534 2050 14, 650 1,199 13, 450 2051 13, 446 1,101 12, 345 2052 12, 218 1,000 11, 218 2053 10, 965 898 10, 068 2054 9, 688 793 8, 895 2055 8, 385 686 7, 698 2056 7, 055 578 6, 478 2057 5, 700 467 5, 233 2058 4, 317 353 3, 963 2059 2, 906 238 2, 668 2060 1, 468 120 1, 347

$17, 831, 892 250, 714 $71

4Esti mate d e mi ssi ons assume Ste p 1standard be come s appli cabl e in 2014, Ste p 2standard in 2017, a nd Step 3standard i n 2022.
5The nati onwi de cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manufacture rsre sul ti ng from the R&D round( s) to me etthe propose d NSPS and the N SPS-caused certification and re porti ng &
re cordke eping costs to bring these stoves to marke t from 2013 th rough 2041. Th ese stoves have l ifespa ns of 20 yea rs (a conse rvati ve esti mate ); thus stoves shi pped in2041 w ill be emitting through 2060. CE base d on total cost & cumulative emission re ducti on
over 20- yea r stove lifespa n (per

ton)

Nationwi de cumul ati ve cost5 Cumulative Emi ssion Re ducti on over

20-year stove lifespa n **13. DRAFT Cost Ef fec** **tiveness (CE) base**  **d on annual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **missions fr** **om Si ngl**  **e Burn Rate** **Stove s** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual costs are i n 2010 $ an d are base d on 6-yea r amorti zati on periods of R&D costs at a 7% i nterestrate ( duri ng 2013- 2018 for ro und one R&D and 2017- 2022 for round two R&D) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke eping costs (ongoi ng through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 th rough 2060 are past the 20-year mode l design lifespa n use d i n thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e missions are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of 2.0 % f rom 2011 t hrough 2041,i n ke eping wit h the ave rage a nnual growth in
re al GDPpre di ct ed by the USBure au of Economi c An al ysis (2013 Gl obal O utlook projections prepared by the Conference Board in November 2012;s ee http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/global outl ook.cfm).

32013 co sts assume manufacture rsw ill begin R&D phase and be gi n ce rti fying model s i n antici pati on of the 2014 ru le compl ia nce date

. Emi ssi ons in 2013, howe ver, are not in cl uded inthi s anal ysis because it ispri or to the rul e compl iance date

. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Reduction, cu mul ati ve per ye ar

## 18 Bas elin e PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Reducti on (tons) CE b ase d on

nati onwide

av erage annual cost (per t on) Bas eline PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) Em issi on

Reduction (tons) 2013 3 $4, 829, 241 $14, 166, 171 $4, 772, 249 2014 4 $4, 829, 241 $14, 166, 171 $4, 772, 249 4, 038 825 3, 213 $1, 485 4, 038 825 3, 213 2015 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $4, 772, 249 4, 119 842 3, 277 $1, 456 8, 157 1, 667 6, 490 2016 $3, 740, 925 $10, 973, 689 $4, 772, 249 4, 201 858 3, 343 $1, 428 12, 358 2, 525 9, 833 2017 4 $6, 579, 561 $19, 300, 588 $4, 772, 249 4, 285 214 4, 071 $1, 172 16, 643 2, 739 13, 903 2018 $6, 579, 561 $19, 300, 588 $4, 772, 249 4, 371 219 4, 152 $1, 149 21, 014 2, 958 18, 056 2019 $2, 925, 650 $8, 582, 148 $4, 772, 249 4, 458 223 4, 235 $1, 127 25, 472 3, 181 22, 291 2020 $2, 925, 650 $8, 582, 148 $4, 772, 249 4, 547 227 4, 320 $1, 105 30, 019 3, 408 26, 611 2021 $2, 925, 650 $8, 582, 148 $4, 772, 249 4, 638 232 4, 406 $1, 083 34, 658 3, 640 31, 017 2022 4 $2, 925, 650 $8, 582, 148 $4, 772, 249 4, 731 95 4, 636 $1, 029 39, 389 3, 735 35, 654 2023 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 4, 826 97 4, 729 $1, 009 44, 214 3, 831 40, 383 2024 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 4, 922 98 4, 824 $989 49, 137 3, 930 45, 207 2025 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 021 100 4, 920 $970 54, 157 4, 030 50, 127 2026 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 121 102 5, 019 $951 59, 278 4, 132 55, 146 2027 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 224 104 5, 119 $932 64, 502 4, 237 60, 265 2028 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 328 107 5, 221 $914 69, 830 4, 344 65, 486 2029 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 435 109 5, 326 $896 75, 264 4, 452 70, 812 2030 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 543 111 5, 432 $878 80, 808 4, 563 76, 245 2031 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 654 113 5, 541 $861 86, 462 4, 676 81, 786 2032 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 767 115 5, 652 $844 92, 229 4, 791 87, 437 2033 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 5, 883 118 5, 765 $828 98, 111 4, 909 93, 202 2034 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 000 120 5, 880 $812 100, 074 4, 204 95, 870 2035 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 120 122 5, 998 $796 102, 075 3, 485 98, 590 2036 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 243 125 6, 118 $780 104, 117 2, 751 101, 365 2037 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 367 127 6, 240 $765 106, 199 2, 664 103, 534 2038 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 495 130 6, 365 $750 108, 323 2, 576 105, 747 2039 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 625 132 6, 492 $735 110, 489 2, 485 108, 004 2040 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 757 135 6, 622 $721 112, 699 2, 393 110, 306 2041 $0 $799, 249 $4, 772, 249 6, 892 138 6, 754 $707 114, 953 2, 299 112, 654 2042 110, 222 2, 204 108, 018 2043 105, 396 2, 108 103, 288 2044 100, 474 2, 009 98, 465 2045 95, 453 1, 909 93, 544 2046 90, 332 1, 807 88, 526 2047 85, 109 1, 702 83, 407 2048 79, 781 1, 596 78, 185 2049 74, 346 1, 487 72, 859 2050 68, 803 1, 376 67, 427 2051 63, 149 1, 263 61, 886 2052 57, 382 1, 148 56, 234 2053 51, 499 1, 030 50, 469 2054 45, 499 910 44, 589 2055 39, 379 788 38, 591 2056 33, 136 663 32, 474 2057 26, 769 535 26, 234 2058 20, 274 405 19, 869 2059 13, 649 273 13, 376 2060 6, 892 138 6, 754

$138, 395, 222 1, 256, 849 $110 Nationwi de cumulative co st 5 Cumulative Em issi on Re ducti on over

20- year stove lifespa n **14. DRAF T Cost Effe**  **cti veness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions from Ce**  **ntral He**  **ate rs** **( Force**  **d Air Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Systems)**

5The nati onwide cumulative cost re pre sents the cost to manufactu re rs re sul ti ng from the R&D ro und(s) to me etth e propose d N SPS an d the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on an d re porti ng &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stoves to market from 2013 thro ugh 2041. The se stoves have lifespa ns of 20 years ( a co nse rvati ve estimate ); thus stoves shi ppe d i n 2041 w ill be

em itting through 2060. 1Esti mate d nati onwide annual costs arei n 2010 $ an d arebase d on 6-year amorti zati on pe ri ods of R&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate( duri ng 2013- 2018 for round one R&D an d 2017- 2022 for ro und two R&D) , plus annual ce rti ficati on and re porting & re co rdkeeping costs ( ongoing through 2041) . Ye ars 2042 th rough 2060 are past the20-yea r mode l de sign lifespa n use d i n this anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e missions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogatefor s hipments) of 2 .0 % f rom 2011 t hrough 2041, i n ke eping with the average an nual growth i n re al GDPpre dicted by the USBure au ofEco nomic Analysis (2013 Gl obal Outlook projections prepared by the Confe re nce Board i n N ove mber 2012; se e http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).

32013 co sts assume manufacture rs w ill be gi n R&D phase an d begin ce rti fying mode ls in an ti ci pati on of the 2014 ru le compl ia nce date . Emi ssions in 2013, howe ver, aren ot i nc luded in this anal ysis be cau se iti s pri or to theru le compl ia nce date.

4Esti mate d emissi ons assume Step 1standard be come s applicable i n 2014, Ste p 2 standard i n 2017, and Ste p 3 standard i n 2022. CE b ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- year stove lifespa n (per

t on) Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumulative pe r ye ar

## 19 Base line PM 2. 5 Emissi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) CE base d on

nationwide
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 $2, 188, 588 $6, 420, 038 $1, 559, 018 2014 4 $2, 188, 588 $6, 420, 038 $1, 559, 018 2, 809 702 2, 106 $740 2, 809 702 2, 106 2015 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 559, 018 2, 865 716 2, 149 $726 5, 673 1, 418 4, 255 2016 $1, 100, 272 $3, 227, 556 $1, 559, 018 2, 922 731 2, 192 $711 8, 595 2, 149 6, 446 2017 4 $1, 935, 165 $5, 676, 644 $1, 559, 018 2, 980 149 2, 831 $551 11, 576 2, 298 9, 278 2018 $1, 935, 165 $5, 676, 644 $1, 559, 018 3, 040 152 2, 888 $540 14, 616 2, 450 12, 166 2019 $860, 485 $2, 524, 161 $1, 559, 018 3, 101 155 2, 946 $529 17, 717 2, 605 15, 112 2020 $860, 485 $2, 524, 161 $1, 559, 018 3, 163 158 3, 005 $519 20, 880 2, 763 18, 117 2021 $860, 485 $2, 524, 161 $1, 559, 018 3, 226 161 3, 065 $509 24, 106 2, 924 21, 181 2022 4 $860, 485 $2, 524, 161 $1, 559, 018 3, 291 66 3, 225 $483 27, 396 2, 990 24, 406 2023 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 356 67 3, 289 $474 30, 753 3, 057 27, 696 2024 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 424 68 3, 355 $465 34, 177 3, 126 31, 051 2025 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 492 70 3, 422 $456 37, 669 3, 196 34, 473 2026 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 562 71 3, 491 $447 41, 231 3, 267 37, 964 2027 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 633 73 3, 561 $438 44, 864 3, 340 41, 524 2028 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 706 74 3, 632 $429 48, 570 3, 414 45, 156 2029 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 780 76 3, 704 $421 52, 349 3, 489 48, 860 2030 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 856 77 3, 778 $413 56, 205 3, 566 52, 639 2031 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 3, 933 79 3, 854 $405 60, 138 3, 645 56, 493 2032 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 011 80 3, 931 $397 64, 149 3, 725 60, 424 2033 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 092 82 4, 010 $389 68, 241 3, 807 64, 433 2034 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 173 83 4, 090 $381 69, 605 3, 188 66, 417 2035 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 257 85 4, 172 $374 70, 997 2, 557 68, 440 2036 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 342 87 4, 255 $366 72, 417 1, 914 70, 504 2037 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 429 89 4, 340 $359 73, 866 1, 853 72, 013 2038 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 517 90 4, 427 $352 75, 343 1, 792 73, 551 2039 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 608 92 4, 516 $345 76, 850 1, 729 75, 121 2040 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 700 94 4, 606 $338 78, 387 1, 665 76, 722 2041 $0 $235, 073 $1, 559, 018 4, 794 96 4, 698 $332 79, 955 1, 599 78, 356 2042 76, 664 1, 533 75, 131 2043 73, 307 1, 466 71, 841 2044 69, 884 1, 398 68, 486 2045 66, 392 1, 328 65, 064 2046 62, 830 1, 257 61, 573 2047 59, 197 1, 184 58, 013 2048 55, 491 1, 110 54, 381 2049 51, 711 1, 034 50, 677 2050 47, 855 957 46, 898 2051 43, 923 878 43, 044 2052 39, 911 798 39, 113 2053 35, 820 716 35, 103 2054 31, 647 633 31, 014 2055 27, 390 548 26, 842 2056 23, 048 461 22, 587 2057 18, 619 372 18, 247 2058 14, 102 282 13, 819 2059 9, 494 190 9, 304 2060 4, 794 96 4, 698

$45, 211, 511 874, 191 $52

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1standard becomes appl icabl e in 2014, Ste p 2standard i n 2017, and Ste p 3standard i n 2022.
5Th e nati onwide cumulati ve cost re presents the cost to manufactu re rs re sulting from the R&D ro und(s) to meet the proposed NSPS and the NSPS-caused certi ficati on and re porting &
re cordkeeping costs to bri ng the se stoves to market from 2013 th ro ugh 2041. The se stoves have l ifes pans of 20 years (a conservati ve e stimate ); thus stoves shipped in 2041 w ill be emitti ng through 2060. CE base d on total cost & cumul ative emission re ducti on
ove r 20-yea r stove lifespan (per ton)

Nati onwi de cumul ati ve cost 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on over 20- year

stove lifespa n **15. DRAFT Cost Ef fe**  **cti ve**  **ness (CE) ba se**  **d on annual and cumul**  **ative PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions from Force**  **d Air Furnace s** 

1Estimated nationwi de annual costs are i n 2010 $ and are base d on 6-year amortizati on pe ri ods ofR&D co sts at a 7% in te re st rate( during 2013- 2018 for round one R&D and 2017- 2022 for round two R&D) , pl us annual ce rtificati on and re porti ng & re cordke eping costs (ongoi ng through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 th ro ugh 2060 arepast the20- year model d esign lifespa n used i n this analysi s.
2Estimated annual e mi ssions are base d on a forecasted re venue growth rate ( asasurrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 throu gh 2041,i n ke eping with the ave rageannual g ro wth in re al G DP predi ct ed by the USBu re au ofEconomic Ana lysis (2013 Gl obal Outl ook proje ct ions prep are d by the Conference Board i n Nove mber 2012;se e http://www.conferen ce
board.org/data/global outl ook.cfm).

32013 costs assume m anufactu re rsw ill be gi n R&D p hase and begin ce rti fying models inanti ci pati on ofth e 2014 ru le compli an ce d ate

. Emissi ons i n 2013, howe ver, are n ot in cl uded in this analysi s be cause i t is prio r to therul e co mpl iance date. Ye ar Annual

Capital Costs Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ative pe r ye ar

## 20 Base line PM2.5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) CEb as ed on

nati onwide
av erage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Em issions (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $3, 213, 231 2014 4 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $3, 213, 231 1, 229 123 1, 106 $2, 904 1, 229 123 1, 106 2015 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $3, 213, 231 1, 254 125 1, 129 $2, 847 2, 483 248 2, 235 2016 $2, 640, 653 $7, 746, 133 $3, 213, 231 1, 279 128 1, 151 $2, 791 3, 762 376 3, 386 2017 4 $4, 644, 396 $13, 623, 945 $3, 213, 231 1, 305 65 1, 239 $2, 593 5, 067 441 4, 626 2018 $4, 644, 396 $13, 623, 945 $3, 213, 231 1, 331 67 1, 264 $2, 542 6, 398 508 5, 890 2019 $2, 065, 165 $6, 057, 987 $3, 213, 231 1, 357 68 1, 289 $2, 492 7, 755 576 7, 179 2020 $2, 065, 165 $6, 057, 987 $3, 213, 231 1, 384 69 1, 315 $2, 443 9, 140 645 8, 494 2021 $2, 065, 165 $6, 057, 987 $3, 213, 231 1, 412 71 1, 342 $2, 395 10, 552 716 9, 836 20224 $2, 065, 165 $6, 057, 987 $3, 213, 231 1, 440 29 1, 412 $2, 276 11, 992 745 11, 248 2023 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 469 29 1, 440 $2, 232 13, 461 774 12, 688 2024 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 499 30 1, 469 $2, 188 14, 960 804 14, 156 2025 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 529 31 1, 498 $2, 145 16, 489 834 15, 654 2026 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 559 31 1, 528 $2, 103 18, 048 866 17, 182 2027 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 590 32 1, 559 $2, 062 19, 638 897 18, 741 2028 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 622 32 1, 590 $2, 021 21, 260 930 20, 330 2029 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 655 33 1, 621 $1, 982 22, 915 963 21, 952 2030 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 688 34 1, 654 $1, 943 24, 603 997 23, 606 2031 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 721 34 1, 687 $1, 905 26, 324 1, 031 25, 293 2032 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 756 35 1, 721 $1, 867 28, 080 1, 066 27, 014 2033 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 791 36 1, 755 $1, 831 29, 871 1, 102 28, 769 2034 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 827 37 1, 790 $1, 795 30, 468 1, 016 29, 453 2035 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 863 37 1, 826 $1, 760 31, 078 928 30, 150 2036 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 901 38 1, 863 $1, 725 31, 699 838 30, 861 2037 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 939 39 1, 900 $1, 691 32, 333 811 31, 522 2038 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 1, 977 40 1, 938 $1, 658 32, 980 784 32, 196 2039 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 2, 017 40 1, 977 $1, 626 33, 639 757 32, 883 2040 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 2, 057 41 2, 016 $1, 594 34, 312 729 33, 584 2041 $0 $564, 176 $3, 213, 231 2, 098 42 2, 056 $1, 563 34, 998 700 34, 298 2042 33, 558 671 32, 887 2043 32, 089 642 31, 447 2044 30, 590 612 29, 978 2045 29, 062 581 28, 480 2046 27, 502 550 26, 952 2047 25, 912 518 25, 394 2048 24, 290 486 23, 804 2049 22, 635 453 22, 183 2050 20, 948 419 20, 529 2051 19, 226 385 18, 842 2052 17, 470 349 17, 121 2053 15, 679 314 15, 366 2054 13, 853 277 13, 576 2055 11, 989 240 11, 749 2056 10, 089 202 9, 887 2057 8, 150 163 7, 987 2058 6, 173 123 6, 049 2059 4, 156 83 4, 073 2060 2, 098 42 2, 056

$93, 183, 711 382, 658 $244

4Esti mate d e mi ssi ons assume Ste p 1standard be co mes ap pl icab le in 2014, Step 2 standard i n 2017, and Step 3 i n 2022.
5The nati onwide cumul ati ve cost re prese nts the co st to manufacture rsre sul ting from the R&D ro und(s) to me et the propose d N SPS and the NSPS-caused certi ficati on and reporti ng &
re cordkee pi ng costs to bri ng these stove s to ma rke t from 2013 t hrough 2041. Th ese stoves have lifespans of20 y ea rs ( a conse rvati ve estimate); thus stove s shi pped in 2041 w ill be emitting through 2060. CEb as ed on total

co st & cumulative emission re duction over 20-yea r stove lifespan (p er

ton)

Nati onwide cu mulative cost5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Reduction ove r 20- year

stove lifespan **16. DRAF T C** **ost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ne**  **ss ( CE) based on**  **annual an**  **d cumul ative** **P M**  **2.5 e**  **missions fr om Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts arei n 2010 $ and areb as ed on 6-yea r amortizati on pe ri ods of R&D costs at a 7% interestrate ( during 2013- 2018 for round one R&D an d 2017- 2022 fo r ro und two R&D), pl us annual ce rtification and re porti ng & re co rdkee pi ng costs (ongoi ng through 2041)

. Ye ars 2042 th ro ugh 2060 arepast the 20-year model de si gn l ifespa n used in thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0 %f rom 2011 t hrough 2041, i n ke eping wit h the ave rage an nual growth i n re al GDPp re di cted by the USB ure au of Economi c A nal ysis (2013 Gl obal Outlook proje ct io ns pre pare d by the Conference Board i n N ovember 2012;se e http://www.conferen ce -board.org/data/gl obaloutl ook.cfm).
32013 costs assume manufacture rs wi ll begin R&D phase an d be gi n ce rti fying models in anti ci pati on ofth e 2014 rul e compl ia nce date . Emi ssi ons i n 2013, h owe ve r, are not i ncl uded in thi s anal ysis be cau se i t i s pri or to therul e compl ia nce date

. Ye ar Annual

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssi on Reduction, cumulative per ye ar

## 21 Base line PM 2.5 Emissions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ased on

nati onwide
av erage annual cost (perton) Baseline PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 2013 3 $10, 295, 398 $30, 200, 681 $10, 600, 322 2014 4 $10, 295, 398 $30, 200, 681 $10, 600, 322 5, 587 1, 760 3, 827 $2, 770 5, 587 1, 760 3, 827 2015 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $10, 600, 322 5, 699 1, 795 3, 903 $2, 716 11, 285 3, 556 7, 730 2016 $8, 771, 756 $25, 731, 206 $10, 600, 322 5, 812 1, 831 3, 981 $2, 663 17, 098 5, 387 11, 711 2017 4 $15, 388, 282 $45, 140, 228 $10, 600, 322 5, 929 906 5, 022 $2, 111 23, 026 6, 294 16, 733 2018 $15, 388, 282 $45, 140, 228 $10, 600, 322 6, 047 925 5, 123 $2, 069 29, 074 7, 218 21, 856 2019 $6, 824, 401 $20, 018, 806 $10, 600, 322 6, 168 943 5, 225 $2, 029 35, 242 8, 161 27, 081 2020 $6, 824, 401 $20, 018, 806 $10, 600, 322 6, 292 962 5, 330 $1, 989 41, 534 9, 123 32, 411 2021 $6, 824, 401 $20, 018, 806 $10, 600, 322 6, 417 981 5, 436 $1, 950 47, 951 10, 104 37, 847 2022 4 $6, 824, 401 $20, 018, 806 $10, 600, 322 6, 546 492 6, 054 $1, 751 54, 497 10, 596 43, 901 2023 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 6, 677 502 6, 175 $1, 717 61, 174 11, 098 50, 076 2024 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 6, 810 512 6, 298 $1, 683 67, 984 11, 610 56, 374 2025 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 6, 946 522 6, 424 $1, 650 74, 930 12, 132 62, 798 2026 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 085 533 6, 553 $1, 618 82, 016 12, 664 69, 351 2027 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 227 543 6, 684 $1, 586 89, 243 13, 208 76, 035 2028 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 372 554 6, 818 $1, 555 96, 614 13, 762 82, 853 2029 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 519 565 6, 954 $1, 524 104, 133 14, 327 89, 806 2030 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 669 576 7, 093 $1, 494 111, 803 14, 903 96, 899 2031 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 823 588 7, 235 $1, 465 119, 626 15, 491 104, 134 2032 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 7, 979 600 7, 380 $1, 436 127, 605 16, 091 111, 514 2033 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 139 612 7, 527 $1, 408 135, 744 16, 703 119, 041 2034 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 302 624 7, 678 $1, 381 138, 459 15, 567 122, 892 2035 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 468 636 7, 831 $1, 354 141, 228 14, 408 126, 820 2036 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 637 649 7, 988 $1, 327 144, 052 13, 225 130, 827 2037 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 810 662 8, 148 $1, 301 146, 933 12, 981 133, 952 2038 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 8, 986 675 8, 311 $1, 276 149, 872 12, 732 137, 140 2039 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 9, 166 689 8, 477 $1, 251 152, 870 12, 478 140, 392 2040 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 9, 349 703 8, 646 $1, 226 155, 927 12, 219 143, 708 2041 $0 $1, 325, 783 $10, 600, 322 9, 536 717 8, 819 $1, 202 159, 045 11, 954 147, 091 2042 152, 500 11, 462 141, 037 2043 145, 823 10, 960 134, 863 2044 139, 013 10, 449 128, 564 2045 132, 066 9, 926 122, 140 2046 124, 981 9, 394 115, 587 2047 117, 754 8, 851 108, 903 2048 110, 382 8, 297 102, 086 2049 102, 863 7, 731 95, 132 2050 95, 194 7, 155 88, 039 2051 87, 371 6, 567 80, 804 2052 79, 392 5, 967 73, 424 2053 71, 253 5, 356 65, 897 2054 62, 951 4, 732 58, 220 2055 54, 483 4, 095 50, 388 2056 45, 846 3, 446 42, 400 2057 37, 037 2, 784 34, 253 2058 28, 051 2, 108 25, 942 2059 18, 885 1, 419 17, 466 2060 9, 536 717 8, 819

$307, 409, 335 1, 641, 055 $187

5Th e nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re presen ts the co st to manufacture rsre sul ting from the R&D round(s) to mee t the propose d N SPS and the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porting &
re cordke epingcosts to bring the se stoves to marke t f ro m 2013 t hrough 2041. Th es e stoves have l ifespa ns of20 yea rs ( a conse rv ati ve e stimate); thus stoves shipped in 2041 w ill be

em itting through 2060. Ye ar Annua l

Capi tal Costs Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mated nati onwide annual costs are i n 2010 $ an d are based on 6-ye ar amorti zati on peri ods of R&D costs at a 7% in te re st rate ( during 2013- 2018 for round one R&D and 2017- 2022 fo r round two R&D) , pl us an nual ce rti ficati on an d re porti ng & re cordkee ping co sts ( ongoing through 2041) . Ye ars 2042 t hrough 2060 arep ast the 20- yea r model d es ig n lifes pan used i n thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mated annual e mi ssions are based on a fore casted reve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0 %f rom 2011 t hrough 2041, i n ke eping with the ave rage an nual growth i n re al GDP predi cte d by the USBure au ofEco nomic Anal ysis (2013 Gl obal Outlook projections pre pared by the Confe re nce Board in Nove mbe r 2012;s ee http://www.conference-board.org/data/gl oba loutlook.cfm).
32013 co sts assume manufacture rs w ill begin R&D phase an d be gi n ce rti fying mode ls in anti ci pati on ofthe 2014 rul e compl ia nce date . Emissi ons i n 2013, however, are not i ncluded in thi s anal ysis be cause i t i s pri or to the ru le compl ia nce d ate.

4Esti mated e mi ssi ons assume Step 1standard be co mes appl icabl e in 2014, Step 2 standard i n 2017, and Step 3 standard i n 2022. N o e mi ssion re ducti ons are e sti mate d for woodstoves and pel letstove s until 2017, al though emission re ducti ons are e sti mate d for al l othe r d evices starti ng in 2014. **17. DRAFT Cost Ef** **fectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumula tive PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions from Central Heaters (Forced Air Furnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms) a nd Room Heate**  **rs (Wo** **od Stove**  **s, Pe llet**  **Stoves, and Single Burn Rate Stoves)** 

CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on over 20- year stove lifespan (perton) Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p ery ear

Nationwide cumul ati ve co st5 Cumulati ve Emi ssion Re duction ove r 20-ye ar stove

lifespan