By James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow and 

The Lipman Family Professor of Criminal Justice, 

Northeastern University

and

Marianne W. Zawitz, BJS Statistician

With the largest cities leading the way, the Nation's

murder rate in 1998 fell to its lowest level in three 

decades. Much of the decline was in those cities 

with more than 1 million inhabitants, where the rate

fell from 35.5 per 100,000 population in 1991 to 16.1

per 100,000 in 1998. The sharp increase in

homicides in the late 1980’s and much of the

subsequent decline are attributable to a rise and fall

in gun violence by juveniles and young adults.

Despite the encouraging improvement since 1993,

the levels of gun homicides by juveniles and young

adults are well above those of the mid-1980's.

These findings and many more are from Homicide

Trends in the United States, a section of the BJS web

site that describes homicide patterns and trends in

the United States since 1976. Homicide is of interest

not only because of its severity but also because it is

a fairly reliable barometer of all violent crime. At a

national level, no other crime is measured as

accurately and precisely. The site displays 50

graphics and supporting tables and includes the

recently released 1998 data.

Other major findings include — 

The Nation's murder rate was 6.3 per 100,000

population in 1998 compared to 4.6 per 100,000

population in 1950. 

Until recently, changes in homicide rates for

large American cities varied by size

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

25

50

Rate per 100,000

Homicide victimization rates for cities

over 100,000 population, 1976-98

One million +

500,000-999,000

250,000-499,000

100,000-249,000

City size

Homicide rates recently declined to levels last

seen in the late 1960's

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

0

5

10

Rate per 100,000 population

Homicide victimization, 1950-98

1998

www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

Homicide Trends in the

United States: 1998 Update

March 2000 NCJ 179767

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Crime Data Brief

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs
Homicide victimization and offending rates for

younger groups — teenagers and young adults — 

rose sharply in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s

before falling more recently, but the rates for those 25

years old and older have declined steadily during the

last two decades. Despite the encouraging

improvement since 1993, levels of youth homicide

remain well above those of the early and mid-1980's.

There were dramatic increases in both homicide

victimization and offending rates among young black

males in the late 1980’s and 1990’s before recent

declines in both categories.

The sharp increase in homicides in the late 1980's

and much of the subsequent decline in homicides are

attributable to gun violence by juveniles and young

adults, while nongun homicide rates remained largely

unchanged.

Males are most often the victims and the perpetrators

in homicides: males were more than 9 times more

likely than females to commit

murder, and male and female

offenders were more likely to target

male than female victims.

There has been a decline in

homicide of intimates, especially

male victims. The number of white

females killed by intimates rose in

the mid-1980's, declined after 1993,

and in 1997 reached the lowest level

recorded over the past two decades.

The number of intimate homicides

for all other race and gender groups

declined over the period; black

males killed by intimates dropped by

74%, black females 45%, and white

males by 44%.

Blacks were six times more likely to

be homicide victims and seven times

more likely than whites to commit

homicides.

2 Homicide Trends in the United States: 1998 Update

Offending rates for teenagers and young adults

increased dramatically in the late 1980's while

rates for older age groups declined

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

10

20

30

40

Rate per 100,000 population

Homicide offending by age, 1976-98

18-24

14-17

25-34

35-49

50+

Under 14

Age

The number of intimate victims (husbands,

wives, boyfriends, and girlfriends) in each race

and gender group has fallen

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Number of victims

Homicides of intimates by gender and race

of victim, 1976-98

Black female

White female

White male

Black male

Gun homicides by teens and young adults rose sharply 

beginning with the mid-1980's and have fallen since 1993

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Homicide offending by age of offender and weapon use, 1976-98

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Ages 14-17 Ages 18-24

Gun

Nongun

1980 1985 1990 1995

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Ages 25+

Gun

Nongun

Gun

Nongun
Eighty-six percent of white murder victims were killed

by whites, and 94% of black victims were killed by

blacks.

Among homicides in which the victim is killed by an

acquaintance, 1 in 10 is interracial, whereas when the

killer is a stranger, 3 in 10 are interracial.

The number of infanticides (victims under age 5) 

has grown, roughly in proportion to the number of

young children in the population, with most of the

perpetrators being the parents.

The number of homicides of persons age 65 and over

has been decreasing. Yet among all age groups, the

elderly have the highest percentage of homicides that

occur during the commission of a felony

The annual number of law enforcement officers killed

in the line of duty declined, mostly because of the

decline in law enforcement officers killed with

handguns.

Few homicides involve multiple offenders and fewer

involve multiple victims. The percentage of homicides

involving multiple offenders increased dramatically 

in the late 1980's and early 1990's, increasing from

10% in 1976 to 17% in 1998. The percentage of

homicides involving multiple victims increased

gradually during the last two decades from just under

3% of all homicides to 4% in 1998. 

The mix of circumstances surrounding homicides has

changed over the last two decades. Although the

number of homicides resulting from arguments has

declined, arguments remain the most frequently cited

circumstance.

The homicide victimization rates of cities with a

population of 1 million or more have plummeted to the

lowest level in the past two decades. Cities of

250,000 to 499,999 had homicide rates that were the 

equivalent to the rates of the largest cities. Most of

the swings in the prevalence of homicide during the

past two decades occurred in cities with a population

of 100,000 or more. Small cities, suburbs and rural

areas experienced relatively little change in homicide

prevalence. 

Compared to the national average, murder rates,

especially those involving guns, were higher in the

South and lower in New England, the Mountain

region, and the West North Central region of the

United States.

The number of homicides cleared by arrest of the

perpetrator has been declining until recently: 69% of

all homicides were cleared in 1998 compared to 79%

in 1976.

Homicide Trends in the United States: 1998 Update 3

The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency

of the U.S. Department of Justice. Jan M. Chaiken,

Ph.D., is director. 

BJS Crime Data Briefs present data on topics of broad

current interest in condensed form.

This report was written by James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow, and Marianne W. Zawitz of BJS. Ms.

Zawitz produced the report, and Cathy Maston and

Matthew Durose verified the data. The report was

reviewed and prepared for printing by Jayne Robinson,

supervised by Tom Hester.

February 2000, NCJ 179767

Older homicide victims are more likely to have

been killed during a felony than younger

victims

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0%

25%

50%

75%

Percent

Age of victim

Percent of homicides committed during

a felony by age of victim, 1976-98

New on the Homicide Trends in the United

States website!

All charts, tables and other information have been

updated with the 1998 preliminary and 1997 final

Supplementary Homicide Reports data and the

1998 Law Enforcement Officers Killed and

Assaulted data. In addition, most tables which

support the graphics now contain the numbers on

which the percentages and rates are based. 

A section on eldercide, homicides of persons age

65 and older, has been added. Also, 18 new

charts including two animations have been added

to the sections on Trends by age, Infanticide,

Intimate homicide, Multiple victim and offender

homicides, Circumstances, Weapons trends,

Regional trends, City trends, and Clearances.
4 Homicide Trends in the United States: 1998 Update

Homicide Trends in the United States -

www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

Organized for easy access, this section of the BJS

website contains sections with graphics, text and

data concerning these aspects of homicide:

Long term trends 

Demographic trends by —

 Age 

 Gender 

 Race 

 Age, gender, and race 

Trends in special groups —

 Infanticide

 Eldercide

 Intimates 

 Law enforcement officers 

Multiple victims and offenders 

Circumstances 

Weapons trends 

Regional trends 

Trends by city size 

Clearances

The data for each of the 50 graphics are presented

in text format that can be imported into most

spreadsheet and charting programs. Links to other

web resources on homicide and violent crime are

included.

The site analyzes data collected by the Federal

Bureau of Investigation through the Uniform Crime

Reporting Program. Most of the data are from the

Supplementary Homicide Reports and are adjusted

for missing reports and unsolved cases. The data

files will be available from the National Archive of

Criminal Justice Data at the University of Michigan,

1-800-999-0960. The archive can also be accessed

through the BJS website.

Paper copies of the materials on the Internet site

may be ordered by contacting the BJS Clearinghouse at 1-800-732-3277: "Homicide Trends in the

United States” website, NCJ 174433, $16.20

postage and handling.