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Overview of Monthly State Retail Sales Data

The Census Bureau has released the Monthly State Retail Sales (MSRS), an experimental data product featuring 

monthly state-level retail sales. These data are some of the most requested from our data users. Previously, statelevel retail sales information was only available every five years as part of the Economic Census. The high-cost of 

survey collection and respondent burden has made survey-based state-level retail sales difficult and costly to 

obtain so these data are different from Census Bureau survey data. They are created using a composite model that 

incorporates Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data, administrative data, and third-party data. This document 

provides an overview of this data product. 

This is the first version of these experimental data; the Census Bureau plans to refine the series and invites users to 

provide feedback on how to improve this experimental product or on potential data sources to be used in the 

blended approach. Feedback can be shared by email at EID.Monthly.State.Retail@census.gov.

What are we publishing?

We are publishing year-over-year percent changes for each state and the District of Columbia for Total Retail Sales 

excluding Nonstore Retailers as well as for 11 three-digit retail subsectors as classified by the North American 

Industry Classification System (NAICS). These NAICS include Motor vehicle and parts dealers (NAICS 441), Furniture 

and Home Furnishing (NAICS 442), Electronics and Appliances (NAICS 443), Building Materials and Supplies Dealers 

(NAICS 444), Food and Beverage (NAICS 445), Health and Personal Care (NAICS 446), Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447), 

Clothing and Clothing Accessories (NAICS 448), Sporting Goods and Hobby (NAICS 451), General Merchandise 

(NAICS 452), and Miscellaneous Store Retailers (NAICS 453).

We are providing year-over-year percent changes back to January 2019. The state-level data is not adjusted for 

seasonal variation, trading-day differences, moving holidays or price changes.

Why are we not publishing Nonstore Retailers (NAICS 454)?

This publication generates geographic estimates based on the physical business location. With nonstore retailers, 

geographic performance is less tied to the physical location of the business than their store counterparts. Thus, we 

felt it would be misleading to try to publish geographic estimates for this industry. We will continue to work on a 

methodology with the hopes of releasing this data at a later date.

How are these state-level retail data produced?

The state-level retail sales estimates are composite estimates that combine synthetic estimates and hybrid 

estimates using third-party and directly-collected MRTS data as well as modeled establishment data. Figure 1 

provides a simplified walkthrough of this methodology. 

What are the limitations of the methodology? 

The composite estimate is used because hybrid and synthetic estimates have different strengths and weaknesses.

For the composite estimates, both the synthetic and hybrid estimates methods are based on the assumption that 

there is a strong relationship between retail sales and total annual payroll. Additionally, both estimators use MRTS 

data and therefore are subject to the same sampling and nonsampling errors associated with MRTS. Because MRTS 

is a sample-based survey designed for national estimates, geographic level MRTS data may not be representative 

of the true population at a state level. 

Since the synthetic estimator is based primarily on total annual payroll and national MRTS estimates, any regional 
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or state seasonal patterns are not reflected in the estimates. It also does not directly use available establishment 

level data like the hybrid estimator does. 

There are also limitations to the hybrid estimator. It assumes there is no measurement error from third-party or 

MRTS directly-collected data. Retailers with a single store location that are not in MRTS are not directly imputed 

but rather accounted for using a national industry level adjustment ratio. From all retailers with data in MRTS, 

only single location retailers or retailers with multiple locations within the same state are directly used in the 

calculation of the state-level composite estimates. 

State sales estimates in each three-digit NAICS are calculated independently each month. Therefore, year-to-year 

percent changes may exhibit more variation if the coverage or percentage of composite estimator coming from the 

hybrid model changes between years. 

What is the quality of the data? 

These data are experimental and may not meet all of the quality standards of our official statistical products. To 

allow data users to assess the quality of the data, we are providing a variety of quality metrics including:

• Standard Error: Standard errors provide measures of variability for the year-to-year percent changes and 

can be used to construct confidence intervals when drawing inferences about the data.

• Coverage: This metric is produced for all monthly estimates, at the individual industry by state-level and 

at aggregated levels to show the proportion of the estimates that is directly collected either through 

MRTS or through a third-party data source. This metric also considers the proportion of the composite 

estimate coming from the hybrid estimate and will be lower the more the composite estimator has to rely 

on synthetic estimate, which does not use directly reported data. The quality of the model improves with 

better coverage.

These metrics are provided on the website at https://www.census.gov/retail/state_retail_sales.html.

When will these data be published?

The MSRS data use the final version of MRTS data as an input so the state-level data will be published 

approximately three months after month’s end. We are exploring ways to publish this data sooner.

What improvements are planned for this product in the future?

• Publish sales levels in addition to year-over-year percent changes in the future. 

• Develop a methodology to allocate nonstore sales to state-level geographies in an appropriate manner. 

• Incorporate more store-location or state-level data that is directly collected either from a survey or third-party 

data to improve the quality of the data. 

How can you share feedback on this data product?

Please share your feedback via email at EID.Monthly.State.Retail@census.gov.

For more information on Census Bureau experimental data products, please visit https://www.census.gov/data/experimental-dataproducts.html.

The data, quality metrics, and technical documentation for this release can be found at https://www.census.gov/retail/state_retail_sales.html.

The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product to ensure appropriate access, use, and disclosure avoidance protection of the confidential 

source data (Project No. P-7506880, Disclosure Review Board (DRB) approval number: CBDRB-FY24-0004).
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Data Included Based on this Condition

MRTS brick & mortar sales 

For MRTS retailers with more than one store location but all 

store locations are in the same state

For MRTS retailers with only one store location

+

Sum of third-party data brick & mortar sales 

For MRTS retailers with more than one store location whose 

store-location or state-level data is available through a thirdparty

+

Imputed brick & mortar sales 

For MRTS retailers with more than one location who operate 

in multiple states and are not included in third-party data 

sales and information from third-party data

+

Adjustment 

To account for retailers with only one location that are not in 

MRTS or in the third-party data

How are the state level retail sales data created?

1

Calculate Synthetic Estimates Step

For each state and 3-digit NAICS combination, national Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) brick & mortar sales are 

allocated to states using administrative data (payroll) totals for each NAICS.

2

Step Calculate Hybrid Estimates

For each state and 3-digit NAICS combination, we use available store-location or state-level data collected in 

MRTS or obtained through a third-party data provider to create state-level retail estimates. 

Hybrid Estimates 

=

3

Step Calculate a weighted average of the two estimates

The final state estimates are then adjusted to sum to the national MRTS total for each NAICS and year-over-year percent 

changes are calculated for publication. Estimate for each State & NAICS

= National MRTS Sales for NAICS ∗

Payroll for State & NAICS

National Payroll in NAICS

For each state and 3-digit NAICS combination, the final estimate is a weighted average and the weight is a ratio 

of the variances of the synthetic and hybrid estimates. 

Ratio =

Variance (Synthetic Estimate)

Variance Synthetic Estimate + Variance(Hybrid Estimate)

Figure 1: Overview of the Monthly State Retail Sales Methodology

Complete technical documentation available at: https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/statedata/msrs_technical_documentation.pdf Estimate = Ratio × Hybrid Estimate + ( 1 − Ratio × Synthetic Estimate)