By James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow and 

The Lipman Family Professor of Criminal Justice, 

Northeastern University

and

Marianne W. Zawitz, BJS Statistician

Following a sharp increase in the late 1980’s, the

homicide rate fell dramatically after 1991. Since 1999

the rate has stabilized. The Nation's murder rate was

5.6 per 100,000 population in 2001 and 2002, similar

to the rates seen in the late 1960's.

These findings and many more are from Homicide

Trends in the United States, a section of the BJS web

site that describes homicide patterns and trends in

the United States since 1976. The site displays over

50 graphics and supporting tables updated with the

2001 and 2002 data. Homicide is of interest not only

because of its severity but also because it is

considered by experts to be a fairly reliable barometer

of violent crime. At the national level no other crime is

measured as accurately and precisely.

For teens and young adults, homicide victimization

rates increased in the late 1980’s but fell sharply after

1993. During the same period rates for older people

declined. Adults ages 25-34 were the only group to

experience increases in victimization rates since the

late 1990’s. Offending rates show a similar pattern.

The homicide rates for teens reflect a reversal from

the dramatic increases in the late 1980’s and early

1990’s. From 1976 to 1985, the rates for young teens

(ages 14-17) were below those for all older age

groups. After 1985 they rose to exceed the rates for

persons age 35 or older. They have now fallen back

Homicide rates recently stabilized after

declining to levels last seen in the late 1960's

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

5

10

Rate per 100,000 population

 Homicide victimization, 1950-2002

www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

Homicide Trends in the

United States: 2002 Update

November 2004 NCJ 204885

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Crime Data Brief

Victimization rates for teens and young adults

increased in the late 1980's while rates for older

age groups declined

Homicide victimization by age, 1976-2002

18-24

14-17

25-34

35-49

50+

Under 14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

10

20

Rate per 100,000 population

Age

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs
to levels below those of persons

ages 35-49 — levels similar to those

from 1976 to 1985 — reversing the

trend.

The sharp increase in homicides in

the late 1980’s and much of the

subsequent decline were attributable

to a rise and fall in gun violence by

teens and young adults. Despite the

moderation since 1993, the levels of

gun homicides by teens and young

adults remain above those of the

mid-1980's.

Other major findings— 

Gender

In 2002 males were most often the

victims and the perpetrators in

homicides: males were 10 times

more likely than females to commit

murder, and male and female

offenders were more likely to target

male than female victims.

Race

Blacks were 6 times more likely to be homicide

victims and 7 times more likely than whites to commit

homicides in 2002.

During the study period 1976-2002, 86% of white

murder victims were killed by whites, and 94% of

black victims were killed by blacks.

Among homicides in which the victim was killed by an

acquaintance, 1 in 10 were interracial, whereas when

the killer is a stranger, 3 in 10 were interracial.

Age, race, and gender

There were large increases in both homicide

victimization and offending rates among young black

males in the late 1980’s and 1990’s before declines

and stabilization in both measures.

After increases in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s,

14-17 year olds in all racial and gender groups

experienced homicide offending rates in 2002 that

were lower than the levels recorded in 1976. Young

adults (ages 18-24) continue to have the highest

offending rates in each racial and gender group.

Although much lower than the offending rates

experienced in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, rates

for black and white males ages 18-24 remain higher

in 2002 than in the mid 1980’s. 

Infanticide

The number of infanticides (victims under age 5) has

grown roughly in proportion to the number of young

children in the population, with most perpetrators

being a parent.

Eldercide

The number of homicides of persons age 65 and

older has been decreasing. Yet among all age

groups, the elderly have the highest percentage 

of homicides that occur during the commission of a

felony.

Law enforcement officers killed

From 1976 to 2002 the number of law enforcement

officers killed in the line of duty declined, mostly

related to the decline in law enforcement officers

killed with handguns.

Multiple victims and offenders

Few homicides involve multiple offenders, and fewer

involve multiple victims. The percentage of homicides

involving multiple offenders increased in the late

1980's and early 1990's, from 11.5% in 1976 to

almost 19% in 2002. The percentage of homicides

involving multiple victims increased gradually from

about 3% of all homicides in 1976 to almost 5% in

2002. 

2 Homicide Trends in the United States: 2002 Update

Gun homicides by teens and young adults rose sharply 

beginning with the mid-1980's, fell after 1993, and stabilized

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Homicide offending by age of offender and weapon use, 1976-2002

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Ages 14-17 Ages 18-24

Gun

Nongun

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Number of homicide offenders

Ages 25+

Gun

Nongun

Gun

Nongun
Intimate homicide

There has been a decline in homicide of intimates,

especially male victims. The number of intimate

homicides declined over the period; black males killed

by intimates dropped 81%, white males by 56%, black

females by 49%, and white females by 9%.

Circumstances

The mix of circumstances surrounding homicides has

changed over the last two decades. Although the

number of homicides resulting from arguments has

declined, arguments remain the most frequently cited

circumstance among those that were known.

City size

In 2002 the homicide victimization rate for cities with a

population of 1 million or more reached the lowest

level recorded since 1976. 

Most of the swings in the prevalence of homicide

during the past two decades occurred in large cities

(population of 100,000 or more) and in suburbs.

Small cities and rural areas experienced relatively

little change in homicide prevalence. 

Region

Compared to the national average, homicide rates,

especially those involving guns, were higher in the

South and lower in the New England, Mountain, and

West North Central regions of the United States.

Clearances

The number of homicides cleared generally by arrest

of the perpetrator declined until 2001: 62% of all

homicides were cleared in 2001 compared to 79% in

1976. It increased to 64% in 2002.

Justifiable homicides Í NEW SECTION!

Most justifiable homicides by police are the result of

attacks on officers. The most frequent circumstance

cited for justifiable homicides by citizens is to disrupt

a crime while in progress.

Homicide Trends in the United States: 2002 Update 3

The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the statistical agency 

of the U.S. Department of Justice. Lawrence A. Greenfeld 

is director. 

This report was written by James Alan Fox, BJS Visiting Fellow, and Marianne W. Zawitz of BJS. Ms. Zawitz

produced the report, and Rhonda Keith prepared the

graphics. Shannan M. Catalano verified the data. Jayne

Robinson reviewed and prepared the report for printing.

November 2004, NCJ 204885

Except for white girlfriends, the homicide

victimization rate for intimate partners 

in each racial and gender group has fallen 

Husband/

ex-husband

Intimate homicide rate by race, gender,

and relationship, 1976-2002

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

1

2

3

Murder rate per 100,000

Wife/ex-wife

Girlfriend

White victims

Boyfriend

ex-husband

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

5

10

15

20

Murder rate per 100,000

Black victims

Girlfriend

Wife/ex-wife

Boyfriend

Husband/

The number of justifiable homicides has

declined 

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

Number of justifiable homicides

By police

By citizens

Number of justifiable homicides by police

and citizens, 1976-2002
Organized for easy access, this section of the BJS

website contains graphics, text, and data concerning

various aspects of homicide:

Long term trends 

Demographic trends by —

Age 

Gender 

Race 

Age, gender, and race 

Trends in special groups —

Infanticide

Eldercide

Intimates 

Law enforcement officers 

Multiple victims and offenders 

Circumstances 

Weapons trends 

Regional trends 

Trends by city size 

Clearances

 Justifiable homicides ÍNEW!

The data for each of the graphics are provided and

linked to a spreadsheet which users can download.

Links to other web resources on homicide and

violent crime are included.

The site analyzes data collected by the Federal

Bureau of Investigation through the Uniform Crime

Reporting Program. Most of the data are from the

Supplementary Homicide Reports and are adjusted

for missing reports and unsolved cases. The data

files are available from the National Archive of

Criminal Justice Data 

(www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/index.html). 

Data on State and local homicide trends and

characteristics are also available. Create customized

tables by State since 1976 or by large localities since

1985. See:

 Crime & Justice Data Online

 <www/ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dataonline/>

Homicide Trends in the United States — www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Washington, DC 20531

Official Business

Penalty for Private Use $300

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*NCJ 204885*