2008 PM2.5 Plan 

## Executive Summary2008 PM2.5 Plan This page intentionally blank.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

Executive Summary

2008 PM2.5 Plan ES-1 

## Executive Summary

In 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protecti on Agency (EPA) set two PM2.5 standards: a 24-hour standard to protect against short-term health impacts, and a 12-month (annual) standard to protect against l onger-term impacts. The San Joaquin Valley complied with the 24-hour standard, based on data from 2004 through 2006. In 2006, EPA revised

the 24-hour standard to a lower level. Addi tional formal rulemaking by EPA is required

before the states can subm it plans for the new 2006 PM2.5 standard. Based on informal discussions with EPA, it is estima ted that attainment plans for this new standard may be required by 2012 or 2013. Consequently, this 2008 PM2.5 Plan focuses primarily on the strategy to attain the 1997 annual standard. Nonetheless, the measures proposed in this plan will also prov ide for progress towards the more stringent

2006 PM2.5 standards and the Calif ornia standard for PM2.5.

The 2008 PM2.5 Plan builds upon the comprehensive strategy adopted in the 2007

Ozone Plan to bring the Valley into attainment of the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5 (particulate matter that is 2.5 microns or less in diameter). PM2.5 can be di rectly emitted into the at mosphere or can form in the atmosphere through chemical reactions among precursors. EPA has identified nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) as precursors that mu st be addressed in air quality plans for the 1997 PM2.5 standards. The 2008 PM2.5 Plan is a continuation of the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution C ontrol District’s (District) strategy to improve the air quality in the San Joaquin Valley.

Progress from Ozone and PM10 Attainment Plans

The District’s adopted ozone and PM10 plans ar e already providing benefits for PM2.5

levels. Under the control strategy put forth in the 2003 PM10 Plan and amendments, and again verified by the 2006 PM10 Plan , the Valley has reached attainment of the

federal PM10 standards ahead of schedule. The SB656 Report , prepared and adopted by the District to meet state requirem ents in 2006 (Health and Safety Code (H&SC) Section 39614), confirmed t hat the District’s PM10 and pr ecursor strategy is a

benchmark for other air di stricts in California. In September 2007, the District adopted

the 2007 PM10 Maintenance Plan and Request for Redesignation as required for EPA to officially redesignate the San Joaquin Valle y to attainment of the PM10 standards.

As a public health agency, the District’s missi on is to improve the health and quality of life for all Valley residents through efficien t, effective, and entrepreneurial air qualitymanagement strategies. In rece nt years, the District has played a leadership role in devising and implementing effective measures for controlling emissions from stationary and indirect sources of air pollution. T oday, the District’s air quality management program is one of the st rongest in the state.

PM2.5 levels have been decreasing since PM2.5 monitoring began in 1999 through the District’s emissions controls. The Valley’ s success with PM10 gives us confidence thatSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

Executive Summary

2008 PM2.5 Plan ES-2 our control strategies wil l continue to be successful in t he future for PM2.5. Analysis of PM2.5 monitoring data for 2004 to 2006 shows that the Valley complied with the 1997 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS of 65 μg/m 3

.

The recently-adopted 2007 Ozone Plan contains a comprehensive and exhaustive list of regulatory and incentive-based measures to reduce emissions of ozone precursors throughout the Valley in the coming years. This PM2.5 Plan analyzes these measures to project PM2.5 improvement. District staff also recommends new controls for further reductions in PM2.5 and its precursors.

Expeditious Attainment

The Clean Air Act requires all states to attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards as expeditiously as practicable beginning in 2 010, but by no later than April 5, 2015. States must identify their attainment dates based on the rate of reductions from their control strategies and the seve rity of the PM2.5 problem. Modeling must be used to verify that the control strategy is as expeditious as practicable.

The District is committed to ensuring that the Valley attains all the PM2.5 standards - the 1997 federal standards, t he 2006 federal standards, an d the state standard - as soon as possible. Thorough analysis of modelin g results available to date and control

measures show that the S an Joaquin Valley PM2.5 nonattain ment area can attain the
annual PM2.5 NAAQS in 2014. M any Valley residents will find that their areas attain
the PM2.5 NAAQS ea rlier than 2014. About 39% of the Valley's population resides in areas that already attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards. By 2011, 71% of the Valley's population will reside in areas that attain the PM2.5 standar d. By 2013, 82% of the Valley's population will reside in areas that attain the PM 2.5 standard. This is shown graphically in Figure ES-1.

Figure ES-1 Percent of Valley’s Popul ation Living in Areas that Attain

the 1997 PM2.5 Standard *

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Present 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Based on 2006 population data (Population Tr ends Reports, California Department of Finance (2005)) and attainment projections available in Table 3-2 of this plan.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

Executive Summary

2008 PM2.5 Plan ES-3 What does this plan do?

This plan contains a comprehensive and exh austive list of strict regulatory and

incentive-based measures to reduce dire ctly emitted PM2.5 and precursor emissions throughout the Valley. As the District continues to tighten regulations for sources under its jurisdiction, state and federal agencies need to also reduce emissions from mobile sources, which are beyond the Di strict’s direct jurisdiction.

Based on the District’s and ARB’s analysis (show n in Figure ES-2), it appears that the Valley can attain the 1997 PM2.5 standard. The “Baseline NOx” columns provide a baseline inventory (Table B-2) that includes the benefits of rules adopted by the District and ARB through December 2006 as well as adjustments for routine emissions inventory methodology reviews. The “Cont rolled NOx” columns then account for the proposed PM2.5 Plan control strategy (inclu ding District control measures and ARB reductions). The “NOx Tar get” line represents the basin- wide average NOx goal, the

NOx emissions level at which the entire Valley will be in atta inment of the annual PM2.5

standard.

Figure ES-2 shows that, under the District’s cu rrent analysis, the Valley can attain the

annual PM2.5 standard in 2014. Though modeling shows that NOx is the dominant pollutant for reducing the San Joaquin Valle y’s PM2.5 concentrations, direct PM2.5

reductions and SO 2 reductions also provide necessary and measurable benefits to ambient PM2.5 levels. ARB modeling (see Chapt er 3) confirms the attainment outlook.

Figure ES-2 Annual Average NOx Emi ssions and NOx Attainment Target

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014tons per day of NOx

NOx Baseline

Controlled NOx

NOx TargetSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

Executive Summary

2008 PM2.5 Plan ES-4 Although reductions of direct PM2.5 and SO 2 are needed for attainment, reductions of NOx appear to be critical because of the Valley’s wintertime ambient conditions and atmospheric chemistry. As shown in Figur e ES-3, 80% of the Va lley’s NOx emissions are generated by mobile source s. Therefore, reducing NO x emissions to the target level that will provide for PM2.5 attainment requires vast reductions from mobile sources, particularly heavy-duty diesel trucks.

Figure ES-3 Mobile Source Co ntribution to NOx Emissions

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

NOx

The 2008 PM2.5 Plan is designed to meet federal requirements for PM2.5 plans (see Chapter 2). By bringing the Valley into attainment of t he PM2.5 standard as expeditiously as practicable, this plan will reduce the Valley’s PM2.5-related health impacts and health-related costs. Aligni ng PM2.5 and ozone efforts will ensure that resources are used efficiently and effectively. The progress made in this plan to bring the Valley into attainment of the federal 1997 PM2.5 standards will also contribute to progress towards the 2006 PM2.5 standards as well as 8-hour ozone standards. Stationary & Area Sources

Other Off-road, incl. Trains Off-road Equipment

Farm Equipment

Passenger Vehicles

Heav y Dut y Trucks NOx Target

for PM2.5

Attainment