Title: Predicting Criminal Behavior Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns.
Series: Research in Progress Preview
Author: Garen Wintemute
Published: April 1998
Subject: Crime patterns and future trends, gun violence
8 pages
24,000 bytes

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U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
National Institute of Justice

National Institute of Justice
Jeremy Travis, Director

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Research Preview
Research in Progress Seminar Series

April 1998

Predicting Criminal Behavior Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns

Summary of a Presentation by Garen Wintemute, University of 
California--Davis

According to National Crime Victimization Survey data, approximately
1.2 million violent crimes were committed with a firearm in 1995. As one
of many efforts to reduce violent crime, the Gun Control Act of 1968 bars
specific groups of people from purchasing (or otherwise acquiring)
firearms. The proscribed list includes those who have had a prior felony
conviction or are under felony indictment, those who are addicted to
narcotics, and those who are mentally ill. However, despite these denial
criteria, most individuals known to have engaged in prior criminal activity
are still able to purchase guns legally. For example, of the approximately
172,000 people who legally purchased a handgun in California in 1977,
about 15 percent had a criminal record at the time of purchase.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention supported a recent study
conducted by the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University
of California-Davis that sought to identify better ways to predict the
incidence of criminal activity among people who purchase handguns
legally. Such information could be useful in further restricting access to
guns by people who are at high risk for engaging in criminal activity.

Study design

Using data from the State of California's automated handgun purchase
files, the researchers designed a longitudinal study of people 50 years old
and younger who legally purchased a handgun in California in 1977. They
accessed the State's criminal history records for the next 15 years (through
1991) to compare the criminal activity of two groups--those who had a
criminal history at the time of the purchase (approximately 6,800 people)
and those who did not (approximately 2,800 people). The size of each
group was determined by the researchers to maximize statistical power.
Most legal handgun purchasers in California have no criminal history at
the time of purchase, even though the relative size of the samples suggests
otherwise.

The researchers calculated how much more likely members of the group
with a criminal history were to commit a crime than were members of the
group without a criminal history ("relative risk"). They then identified and
compared subgroups to isolate factors that might point to an increased risk
of future criminal activity. These measures were controlled for intergroup
differences in age, gender, and race or ethnicity.

Possible risk factors for criminal activity

Within 1 year of their handgun purchase, 13 percent of the criminal history
group had been arrested for a new offense, compared with less than 2
percent of the group with no criminal history at the time of the purchase.
By 15 years after the handgun purchase, almost 38 percent of the criminal
history group had been arrested for a new offense, compared with less than
10 percent of the group with no criminal history. Overall, the adjusted
relative risk was 3.7; that is, handgun purchasers with a criminal history at
the time of the purchase were 3.7 times more likely to be charged with a
subsequent offense than were purchasers with no criminal history.

The researchers examined the data in several ways. Contrary to their
expectations, the relative risk of a new offense associated with a criminal
history did not decrease with age. The relative risk for people under age 30
was 3.5; for those age 30 and over, 4.1. On the other hand, the younger
groups committed new offenses at a rate approximately twice that for the
older groups. For example, in the first 3 years following handgun
purchase, for every 1,000 people under age 30 with one offense prior to
the purchase, 65 new offenses were recorded each year; among those 30
and over with one prior offense, only 38 new offenses were recorded each
year for every 1,000 people.

Relative risk did not vary significantly by gender. There was, however,
some variance among races. When comparing the group with a criminal
history and the group with no criminal history, the researchers found that
nonblacks had a greater relative risk than blacks. This was in part because
blacks with no criminal history had a higher subsequent arrest rate than
did nonblacks with no criminal history.

The number of prior offenses seemed to be a significant factor in
determining relative risk. For example, the relative risk that those who had
been arrested for only one prior offense would be arrested for another
offense within 3 years was 3.9; the relative risk in the same time period for
individuals with two to four offenses was 6.7; for those with five or more
prior offenses, the risk was 10.4. People with a history of multiple violent
crime index offenses were at particularly high risk of being charged with
new offenses of all types.

The researchers found that people with a history of a particular type of
criminal activity (e.g., felonies) were at no greater risk of committing a
new offense of that type than were persons with criminal histories
involving only other offenses. There was one exception: People with
previous firearm offenses were more likely to be charged with a
subsequent firearm offense than were those charged only with other types
of offenses. Offenders with no history of a violent offense were more
likely to commit a violent offense during the first 3 years after handgun
purchase than were people with no criminal history, but that difference
faded over the 15-year followup period.

Implications for future research

Although this was a historical study, the findings are relevant to current
efforts to reduce gun violence in the United States. The likelihood that a
person with a criminal history would commit a subsequent offense was
clearly related to the nature of that individual's criminal history, including
the frequency of arrests. This principle has been well established in studies
of recidivism among other populations. Although existing laws already
prohibit certain groups from purchasing guns, further research might lead
to an empirically based definition of a high-risk population: people who,
by virtue of their criminal records, could be legally denied access to
firearms.

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This Research Preview is based on a presentation by Garen Wintemute,
M.D., M.P.H., a practicing emergency medicine physician and Director of
the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California-
Davis. As part of NIJ's Research in Progress Seminar Series, Dr.
Wintemute discussed his CDC-sponsored study (grant #R49/CCR903549)
with an audience of researchers and criminal justice professionals and
practitioners. A 60-minute VHS videotape, Predicting Criminal Behavior
Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns, is available for $19 ($24 in
Canada and other countries). Please ask for NCJ 165585. Use the order
form on the next page to obtain this videotape and any of the other tapes
now available in the series.

-------------------------------

Points of view in this document do not necessarily reflect the official
position of the U. S. Department of Justice. 

FS 000198

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This publication is the result of collaboration between the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Justice. The
effort represents a coming together of health and justice to address the
critically important problem of violence. CDC funded the research for this
study, and NIJ is disseminating it via this Research Preview and the
accompanying video. Both agencies believe this collaboration will lead to
greater effectiveness in tackling issues that are a concern from the public
health and the public safety perspectives.

-------------------------------

The Latest Criminal Justice Videotape Series from NIJ:

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NCJ 152235--Alfred Blumstein, Ph.D., Professor, Carnegie Mellon
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NCJ 152236--Peter W. Greenwood, Ph.D., Director, Criminal Justice
Research Program, The RAND Corporation: Three Strikes, You're Out:
Benefits and Costs of California's New Mandatory-Sentencing Law.

NCJ 152237--Christian Pfeiffer, Ph.D., Director, Kriminologisches
Forschungs-institut Niedersachsen: Sentencing Policy and Crime Rates in
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and Preventing Violence: A Public Health Perspective.

NCJ 152692--James Inciardi, Ph.D., Director, Drug and Alcohol Center,
University of Delaware: A Corrections-Based Continuum of Effective
Drug Abuse Treatment.

NCJ 153271--Marvin Wolfgang, Ph.D., Director, Legal Studies and
Criminology, University of Pennsylvania: Crime in a Birth Cohort: A
Replication in the People's Republic of China.

NCJ 153730--Lawrence W. Sherman, Ph.D., Professor, University of
Maryland: Reducing Gun Violence: Community Policing Against Gun
Crime.

NCJ 153272--Cathy Spatz Widom, Ph.D., Professor, State University of
New York-Albany: The Cycle of Violence Revisited Six Years Later.

NCJ 153273--Wesley Skogan, Ph.D., Professor, Northwestern University:
Community Policing in Chicago: Fact or Fiction?

NCJ 153850--Scott H. Decker, Ph.D., Professor, University of Missouri-
St. Louis, and Susan Pennell, San Diego Association of Governments:
Monitoring the Illegal Firearms Market.

NCJ 154277--Terrie Moffitt, Ph.D., Professor, University of Wisconsin:
Partner Violence Among Young Adults.

NCJ 156923--Orlando Rodriguez, Ph.D., Director, Hispanic Research
Center, Fordham University: The New Immigrant Hispanic Populations:
Implications for Crime and Delinquency in the Next Decade.

NCJ 156924--Robert Sampson, Ph.D., Professor, University of Chicago:
Communities and Crime: A Study in Chicago.

NCJ 156925--John Monahan, Ph.D., Professor, University of Virginia:
Mental Illness and Violent Crime.

NCJ 157643--Benjamin E. Saunders, Ph.D., and Dean G. Kilpatrick,
Ph.D., Medical University of South Carolina: Prevalence and
Consequences of Child Victimization: Preliminary Results from the
National Survey of Adolescents.

NCJ 159739--Joel H. Garner, Ph.D., Research Director, Joint Centers for
Justice Studies: Use of Force By and Against the Police.

NCJ 159740--Kim English, Research Director, Colorado Division of
Criminal Justice: Managing Adult Sex Offenders in Community Settings:
A Containment Approach.

NCJ 160765--Michael Tonry, Ph.D., Professor, University of Minnesota:
Ethnicity, Crime, and Immigration.

NCJ 160766--David M. Kennedy, Ph.D., Professor, Harvard University:
Juvenile Gun Violence and Gun Markets in Boston.

NCJ 161259--Robert Crutchfield, Ph.D., Professor, University of
Washington: Labor Markets, Employment, and Crime.

NCJ 161836--Geoff Alpert, Ph.D., Professor, University of South
Carolina: Police in Pursuit: Policy and Practice.

NCJ 163056--Dan Brookoff, M.D., Ph.D., Associate Director, Medical
Education, Memphis Methodist Hospital: Drug Use and Domestic
Violence.

NCJ 163057--Marcia Chaiken, Ph.D., Research Director of LINC,
Alexandria, VA: Youth Afterschool Programs and the Role of Law
Enforcement.

NCJ 163058--Eric Wish, Ph.D., Director, Center for Substance Abuse
Research, University of Maryland, Dependence and Drug Treatment
Needs Among Adult Arrestees.

NCJ 163059--Jeffrey Fagan, Ph.D., Professor, Columbia University,
Adolescent Violence: A View From the Street.

NCJ 163921--Patricia Tjaden, Ph.D., Senior Researcher, Center for Policy
Research, The Crime of Stalking: How Big Is the Problem?

NCJ 164262--Andrew Golub, Ph.D., Principal Research Associate,
National Development and Research Institutes, Inc., Crack's Decline:
Some Surprises Across U.S. Cities.

NCJ 164725--Ronald Huff, Ph.D., Professor, Ohio State University,
Criminal Behavior of Gang Members.

NCJ 164726--James Austin, Ph.D., Executive Vice-President, National
Council on Crime & Delinquency, Sentencing Guidelines: A State
Perspective.

NCJ 165585--Garen Wintemute, M.D., Director, Violence Prevention
Research Program, University of California-Davis, Predicting Criminal
Behavior Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns.

NCJ 167027--Lorraine Green Mazerolle, Ph.D., Director, Center for
Criminal Justice Research, University of Cincinnati: Using Gunshot
Detection Technology in High-Crime Areas.

NCJ 167028--Stephen Mastrofski, Ph.D.; Roger B. Parks, Ph.D.; Albert J.
Reiss, Jr., Ph.D.; Robert E. Worden, Ph.D.: Community Policing in
Action: Lessons From an Observational Study.

NCJ 167029--Christian Pfeiffer, Ph.D.; Director, Kriminologisches
Forschungs-institut Niedersachsen: Trends in Juvenile Violence in
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Research Forum: Crime in the Schools: A Problem-Solving Approach.

NCJ 168626--Pamela Lattimore, Ph.D.; Kevin Jack Riley, Ph.D., National
Institute of Justice: Homicide in Eight Cities: Trends, Contexts, and
Responses.

To order any of these tapes, please contact:

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