Table 2—Crop Insurance Coverage for Key Crops in Major Drought Affected States

Acres Planted Acres Insured Percent of planted | Percent covered at
covered catastrophic level

‘Arkansas
Corn 240,000 170,648 Td 35.0
Soybeans 3,000,000 2,031,881 67.7 52.7
Ilinois
Corn 12,100,000 8,533,725 705 93
Soybeans 9,700,000 6,763,346 69.7
Kentucky
Corn 1,250,000 768,872 615 18.7
Soybeans 1,260,000 846,793 672 18.9
Missouri
Corn 3,100,000 2,345,812 75.7 22.4
Soybeans 5,100,000 3,685,371 723 25.6
Wisconsin
Corn 3,700,000 2,190,665 39.2 13.8
Soybeans 1,600,000 1,107,254 69.2 Zi



week for the export grain facility there to resume operations. This elevator has a storage
capacity of about 3 million bushels.

Farm Production Costs. As Hurricane Rita approached, 16 refineries along the Gulf Coast shut
down as a precautionary measure and to allow employees to evacuate. Currently, 4 of those
refineries are completely shutdown, 3 shut down in the Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas, and
1 shut down in the Houston/Texas City/Galveston refining area. In addition, there are 3
refineries still shut down in the New Orleans area following Hurricane Katrina. In total, the shut
down refineries account for about 1.9 million barrels per day of refining capacity.

Retail gasoline prices increased by about 20 cents per gallon in regions most affected by the
hurricanes (the Gulf Coast via refinery outages and the Midwest and Lower Atlantic regions via
reduced product pipeline flows). Diesel markets saw even larger price increases. The average
US. retail diesel price rose by nearly 35 cents per gallon between September 26 and October 3,
with the Lower Atlantic region diesel price increasing by more than 50 cents per gallon. The
average diesel price in September was $2.82 per gallon, an all-time monthly high, even after
adjusting for inflation, and October is likely to average even higher, given that the average price
on October 10 was $3.15 per gallon, or nearly unchanged since October 3.

Higher prices for gasoline and diesel fuel increase farm production costs. Before Katrina, farm
production expenses for fuels and oils were projected to reach $10.2 billion in 2005, up from
$8.2 billion in 2004 and $6.8 billion in 2003. The increase in farm production expenses will
depend on the duration of the price increases for fuels and oils. For every month that the cost of
fuels and oils remain 10 percent higher, farmers incur additional expenses of about $85 million.

Crop Insurance. Depending on the severity of the loss and the level of crop insurance
coverage, producers incurring crop losses due to damaging winds and excessive rains from Rita
may be partially reimbursed through Federal crop insurance indemnity payments. In Louisiana,
Mississippi and Texas more than two-thirds of planted acreage of cotton, corn, soybeans, rice
and sugarcane are covered by Federal crop insurance (table 4). With the exception of sugarcane
in Louisiana and corn in Mississippi more than one-half of all insured acres are covered by buy-
up policies that reimburse producers for crop losses that exceed 35 percent or less in some
instances.


IT

vaso
Aq poyeumsa jou fayeutysa

uo] 9g YN YN ayeaud ‘uorpr 9¢ suedeg
vasn
Aq poyeuryse jou ‘ayeuryse saygeqadon pue spiny
worn ¢¢ YN AN ayeaud ‘uoymu ¢¢ ‘squad Arosiny,
yiodai uoynposd doso
aueoLny ZI 390 wo paseq vor
go wed ur uoyonpoid uononposd Zp$ 12 ponyea seBns
Poniirany ‘ueoeSns ou {sso] ON, aueoreSns ou sso] ON paulyas JO SUO} 00OPOT ouvoresng
sesueyly Sz sdag £q, $7 adag Aq St adag Aq
UI Sasso] PayeUullyse ul Palsanrey %G ‘Bunsoarey | paysoarey %9 ‘Buyseasey ui | polsoarey %76G ‘Suysomey
UOTI[I ZZG SPpNpoUy, UI SSO] pfarA juaosad | sso] pjatA queosad Q] souinsse UI sso] PJalA quaosad ory,
euor p7$ | OT Sauinsse ‘vor Z'0$ fuorqnur ['9$ ueypssaT | OT Soutnsse fuorTrur g*T¢
sz idag fq sz Wag
paysaaey %€7 SBunsaaiey | Aq paysaarey %6] ‘Bunseasey
UI sso] PISIA quaosed UI sso] pIetA quscred yuodas uononpoad doso
QI soumsse ‘sassoy AyWYenb QI seumsse ‘sassoy Ayenb ZI 200 Uo paseq vor wood purldn.
wort ozs | apnfour y,usoop Suortsu 2g sapnfoxa ‘uous [0S | E1938 Panqea saqeq 000'OS
oder uononpoad doo Z| ‘ueaLINy
“JOO UO paseq UOT Lg 1B Jo tped ur uononpoid Sz ides ‘umysi0g
wor zg | panzea sjeysng vor p-¢ umnyaios ou ‘ssoq on | Aq parsenrey %66 SS] ON,
SZ ‘Idag Aq paysonrey yuodex
Sunsoarey Uw sso] %8L BuNsearey wt sso] uononpoad dos Z] 00
PIe1A qusoued ¢°z soumnsse PISIA quaouad ¢*z soumnsse uo paseq von gg 12 sueaqkog
WONT Bg Sort [OS wep sso] Sworn [70s wey ssa] | panyea sjaysng worut ¢*[
SZ deg Aq paysearey
%EL Woo ‘uysoarey uodax uononposd doso
UI sso] PIaIA quaored ZI 200 Uo paseg wou Sz ydag Aq woD
wor 7g OT soumsse ‘uoniw 1g | [$38 panpeasjaysng QOO‘EL | Parsaasey %00I ‘sso] ON
TIO], SEXO], 1ddissyssi, euysmoy 103995 903SAq/doa.)

BIRY 9ULILLANY 0} anp sasso'] uoponporg yo AremMng -7 aIquy, xipueddy



Table 2, Harvest Progress Prior to Rita

% Crop Harvested
Louisiana
Cotton 39
Com 100
Sorghum 99
Soybeans B
Rice 92
Mississippi
Cotton 19
Com 94
Soybeans 8
Rice 60
Texas
Cotton 23
‘Com B
Sorghum 59
Soybeans N.A.
Rice 98

N.A.—Not Available; 50% assumed.



Table 1. Production Changes for Crops Potentially Affected by Hurricane Rita: October 1, 2005 Production
Estimates Compared with September 1, 2005 Production Estimates

State/Crop Unit September October | Unit Change | Percent Change
Arkansas
Cotton 1,000 bales 2,030 2,100 +70 43.4
Soybeans 1,000 bushels 100,300 102,000 +1,700 +17
Corn 1,000 bushels 28,750 29,440 +690 42.4
Rice Mil cwt 112.488 109.545 -2.943 -2.6
Louisiana
Cotton 1,000 bales 1,150 1,100 -50 43
Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 1,256 1,152 -104 -83
Sugarcane 1,000 s. tons 10,920 10,010 -810 “7.4
Rice Mil cwt 30.713 30.713 NC NC
Soybeans 1,000 bushels 30,100 28,560 -1,540 “5.1
Mississippi
Cotton 1,000 bales 2,200 2,200 NC NC
Rice Mil ewt 17.095 17.095 NC NC
Soybeans 1,000 bushels 54,950 54,950 NC NC
Corn 1,000 bushels 49,275 48,545 -730 “15
Texas
Cotton 1,000 bales 7,245 7,645 +400 45.5
Soybeans 1,000 bushels 6,875 7,200 4325 44.7
Corn 1,000 bushels 216,000 216,000 NC NC
Sorghum 1,000 bushels 112,000 108,300 -3,700 -33
Rice Mil owt 14.070 14.070 NC NC
U.S. Total
Cotton 1,000 bales 22,282 22,717 +435 42.0
Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,589 3,499 -90 -2.5
Sugarcane 1,000 s. tons 30,161 30,241 +80 +03
Rice Mil cwt 228.338 223.238 “5.1 22
Soybeans 1,000 bushels 2,856,449 2,967,075 +110,626 43.9
Corn 1,000 bushels 10,638,661 10,857,440 4+218,779 42.1
Sorghum 1,000 bushels 397,721 375,105 -22,616 “57



“ydur €Z-6€ 5° SpulM--Z# Wed “ydur €7 wey} JoyeOIs SpulM—1# Wed/T

TSE €Or ag vs 80 v0 ss 00 v0 Te St Wed SUeOLNH SN %
COR vINOL | SeLSTZE | OSLLEIT | CoeSLToc | eMTOIS*Ec | coRBEcRE | LerCoz esr | LerEz 9OELE BeOTSTT | OST TET Wed SuRSHINA TOL,
€L? rs ws LY Z0 €0 (ad 00 £0 Eid 6T 7 # Med OULSIN “SN %
soroec's | SeeO16 ZI | OGL LHIT | Lereossl | sPezseer | 89STOSSE | O6L‘esco6I | IZEO7 £66°0€ BPS 0E6 06 r08T # Wied SueoLN AL
oL FOr 00 v0 TO 00 ve 00 TO OT Z0 T# Wed SueOLINH "S %
Sompsec | preRec he | 0 SOELLST | StELSS€ | POcLEET | LO960GE6 | SITS Z1E9 O8r0zE OLL°929 T# Wed SuvOLNAL
TOL aes TY
00 OSL es vIT 98r ev STS oT a EST aa Wed SUBSE %
0 TORPEFOI | cE ORE | OIF SBLZI | c90;87T | 690'ZzES | OchOOFTZE | 8Bs°ST sLTOl 0£6°698 8ST COST wed SUROHINA [201
00 T6S es €01 TOI ve Or a L@ ver x8 7 # Wed SULSEINH%
0 oisoces | cavose | rrr ecsit | Zeveort | sposezs | ozeerr's9 | 16071 0298 €0€289 Eauicall GH Wed OULOLINAT
00 vor 00 TT 97 $0 s0r v0 $0 €€ i T# Wed ouPOLUTT %
0 SteeElec | 0 SLEvITI | SEEOLT SerT6OT | POOLSTEST | BOLE 85ST LeEFTRI SETTLE T# Wied euvownyy,
TOL
00 00 £0 00 ZO TT iad TO a ij vs Wed SUBSTAN %
0 0 vLL9 0 396 88E 6SL'6ES o8e60ssI | 067 IST? LES IT ZRLLS Wied SUeOLLINA TeHOL
00 00 €0 00 ZO TT fad TO €8 ib vs TH Med OURSHINA
0 0 ¥LL'9 0 396 88E OSL OES 9BE60S'8I | 067 TSTZ LESS BLES @# Wed OUROLANT
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 T# Weg SueSLAINAT %
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T# Wed OuROLANET
iddississt
76 €98 T99 618 FL oss $99 99L v9 OL $06 ted SUeSHINA %
CORPINOL | Leeelsoc | PEeOIL | ELOLREL | CELIPSIc | PEO'cerRc | I89.C6c HPI | 6STTI LLE ve T9THSE 0% 18L wed Sued TROL,
VSL OST 199 PSL €19 vLs olb 96r TOS TSP T19 7 # Wed SULLA
soroecs | GOs’sos | PEEOSL | EROPLOL | PSTOS'SI | POTOZT'Sz | BLO IPSCO! | OGL COR 80 OTT S8S°S7S 7# Med SueOLN,
SIZ PIL 00 SE aa 90 TBI Ole TEL F8z Lt T# Wed SUBOLIN %
soorsee | SIP beoIc | 0 O66TIE 6LeOsee | OLBSOE C09 sro | SIE sl ESB LEL SEN'SST T# ted oues nny
BuREMOT
suo} Wo s3]2q — (peoy)—
auesredng | ony WOHOD TwaRyBIOg sueagkog | WioD SOI [30H _[ SROOSET | SOD IFO] STHED

7I GRY sue Jo Meg oy Ul uoHonporg dorD puL yooysoar] Jo TOquINN, “] o1qel, pucddy



A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF
HURRICANE RITA ON U.S. AGRICULTURE
USDA/OCE, October 18, 2005

Note: This paper presents estimates of the effects of Hurricane Rita on U.S. agricultural
production. This assessment is based ona variety of information sources, some of which change
daily. These estimates should not be interpreted as cost estimates of crop loss disaster
assistance or livestock disaster assistance as provided in previous legislation. Estimates are for
current production losses and exclude quality and future production losses that may be incurred
by perennial crops or livestock and losses to infrastructure and increased marketing costs.

Some of these losses will be offset by insurance indemnities. Production loss estimates from
Hurricane Rita are summarized in Appendix Table 2 at the end of this report.

Effects of Hurricane Rita on U.S. Agriculture

Path of the Rita:

Shortly after passing between Cuba and the Florida Keys, Rita quickly became the third-most
intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin based on barometric readings. Rita grazed
southern Florida on September 20 with heavy showers and gusty winds, although gusts to
hurricane force (74 mph or greater) were confined to the Florida Keys. On the night of
September 21-22, however, Rita's central pressure fell to 26.49 inches of mercury, behind only
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and the Florida Keys' Labor Day hurricane of 1935. Rita's peak
sustained winds were estimated at 175 mph.

Despite weakening before making landfall early on September 24 in Louisiana's Cameron Parish,
Rita still struck with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. Closer to the point of landfall,
which occurred at 3:30 a.m. EDT on September 24 between Sabine Pass on the Texas-Louisiana
border and Johnsons Bayou, Louisiana, Texas coastal winds reached 116 mph in Port Arthur and
101 mph at Sea Rim State Park. Selected rainfall totals associated with Rita included 10.48
inches in Center, Texas; 9.32 inches in Baton Rouge, Louisiana; and 6.81 inches in Greenville,
Mississippi. On September 24, Shreveport, Louisiana, received 5.52 inches of rain and reported
a peak wind gust to 53 mph. Rita also brought renewed storm surge-related flooding to
hurricane-ravaged southeastern Louisiana and triggered more than three dozen tornadoes across
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Role of Agriculture in Affected States. Portions of the States of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Texas were affected by hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) and tropical force winds (39-
73 mph) from Rita (see attached map). These States account for a major portion of national
cotton, rice and sugarcane production (table 1). According to the 2002 Census of Agriculture,
the counties in these States that incurred hurricane force winds account for less than 1 percent of
the total U.S. inventory of cattle, milk cows and hogs and less than 1 percent of U.S. corn,
sorghum, cotton and soybean production. In contrast, about 11 percent of rice production and 8
percent of U.S. sugarcane production are in counties that incurred hurricane force winds.

Tropical storm winds from Rita affected additional counties in Louisiana and Texas as well as
several counties in Mississippi. The total area of these States affected by either hurricane or
tropical force winds account for less than 1 percent of total U.S. hog inventory, milk cows and



border, the Red River crested on June 18 in Fargo at 11.19 feet above flood stage and Grand
Forks, 12.07 feet above flood stage, the second-highest summer level on record in both locations.
Summer high-water marks along the Red River were established in July 1975, when crests
climbed 16.26 feet above flood stage in Fargo and 15.08 feet above flood stage in Grand Forks.
Ironically, Washington suffered from a late-season drying trend, which left the state’s final
spring wheat condition at 22 percent poor-to-very poor.

Effects on Principal Corn Belt Crops. A number of crops have been damaged by drought in
drought affected states. Corn and soybeans are the principal crops in the area, however, other
crops such as sorghum and forage crops have been lost. As of October 9, 2005, in Illinois 37
percent of the pasture and range and 17 percent of the sorghum were as rated poor or very poor.
In Missouri, 36 percent of the pasture and range and 31 percent of the sorghum were as rated
poor or very poor. The effect of the Corn Belt drought is estimated by comparing actual
estimated 2005-crop production as of October 1, 2005 as reported in USDA’s Crop Production
report with normal production. Production effects are presented for soybeans and com, the
principal crops, for the States of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Producers in other nearby States also may have incurred additional losses. Normal production is
estimated two ways by using a 5-year average of State yields and a trend yield. These measures
of normal yield were estimated by multiplying estimated harvested area as of October 1 to
produce an estimate of normal production. Production losses are valued using the forecast
season-average price for soybeans and the national average loan rate for com. Because com
prices are below loan rates, the forgone income due to lost production for a producer is the
market price plus the loan deficiency payment rate which is the difference between the local loan
rate and the posted county price. The national average com loan rate is used as a proxy for the
market price plus the loan deficiency payment rate. The results are reported in table 1.

For soybeans, as of October 1 crop conditions, the value of lost production in the 5-state area is
$35 million when measured from 5-year average yields and $224 million when measured from
trend yields, with losses concentrated in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. For corn, as of October 1
crop conditions, the value of lost production in the 5-state area is $415 million when measured
from 5-year average yields and $477 million when measured from trend yields, with losses again
concentrated in Illinois and Missouri and no losses in Indiana and Ohio. Combined losses are
$450 million when measured from 5-year average yields. When measured from trend yields,
losses are $701 million. This is down from the level of losses from trend yields estimated at
$1.27 billion in the September 19 assessment. Individual producers in other states likely
experienced losses as well.

Crop Insurance. Producers in the drought-affected Com Belt States appear to be well covered
by crop insurance (table 2). The percent of planted acreage of corn and soybeans covered ranges
from about 60 to 76 percent. About one-quarter or less of policies are at the catastrophic level
of coverage, the minimum available, except for Arkansas, where the majority of coverage is at
the catastrophic level. Catastrophic coverage insures a loss in excess of 50 percent of normal
yield valued at 55 percent of price, or a maximum of 27.5 percent of the market value of normal
production in the event of a total loss.


AN UPDATE OF THE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF
- DROUGHT IN THE MIDWEST
USDA/OCE, October 18, 2005

A preliminary assessment of the effects of Hurricane Katrina and drought on U.S. agriculture
was released on September 19, 2005, and is available at
www.usda.gov/oce/Katrinadamage_1_2.pdf. This paper updates the drought portion of that
assessment, based on the crop production estimates from the October 12, 2005 USDA Crop
Production report.

Drought in the Eastern Corn Belt and Excess Moisture in the Northern Plains.

Many parts of the nation experienced adverse weather during 2005 beyond the Hurricane
affected areas. Such disturbances are typical for U.S. agriculture. The long-term drought
continued in many western states, particularly affecting reservoir and other hydrological
conditions. Agricultural losses appear most notable in the drought that emerged in the eastern
Corn Belt this summer. In addition, excess moisture in the Northern Plains caused additional
agricultural losses.

Drought in the Corn Belt. Drought developed in key areas of the Corn Belt during the spring
and persisted during the summer of 2005. June-August rainfall totaled less than 50 percent of
normal at several locations, including:

Location Total (Inches) Normal (Inches) Percent of Normal
De Queen, Arkansas 3.74 11.04 34
Moline, Illinois 4.70 13.07 36
Burlington, Iowa 4.94 12.79 39
EI Dorado, Arkansas 5.24 12.53 42
Chicago, Illinois 5.18 11.76 44
Lincoln, Illinois 5.84 12.32 47
Galesburg, Illinois 6.12 12.62 48

Corn and soybeans were among the most drought-affected crops. Illinois corn was rated 48
percent poor-to-very poor on October 9. Missouri’s corn acreage was rated 43 percent poor-to-
very poor. On the same date, Arkansas, Illinois and Missouri soybeans were rated 29 percent
poor-to-very poor. Beneficial rains in the region provided some relief to drought-stressed
soybeans in August and September.

Excessive Rains in the Northern Plains and the Northwest. After an unfavorably dry winter,
wet weather developed in the Northwest. Above-normal precipitation persisted through the
spring, resulting in the second wettest March-May period on record in Idaho and Nevada. The
wet weather shifted eastward during the summer months, covering much of the northern and
central Plains and parts of the upper Midwest. North Dakota experienced its third-wettest
summer during the 111-year period of record. As a result, rare summer flooding occurred on the
northern Plains. The final spring wheat condition report on August 14 showed 20 percent of
Minnesota’s crop to be in poor-to-very poor condition. Along the North Dakota-Minnesota


Table 3. Estimated Crop and Livestock Losses Resulting from Rita

Commodity Production Estimated Value of 2005 Production
Loss (mil. $)
Corn 2
Soybeans 8
Sorghum 7
Upland Cotton 20
Rice 24
Sugarcane 42
Other Crops 9
Cattle 3
Hogs lV
Broilers iy
Dairy 2
Fish and Shellfish 80 3/
Total Commodity Production 195

LNo estimate of death loss currently available.

2/No estimate of death loss available; producers subject to hurricane force winds
could have lost $400,000 per week in milk sales.

3/Includes losses to commercial fisheries.

Note: Perennial crops could have reduced production in future years. Crop insurance
indemnities will offset some losses; indemnity estimates not yet available.


Livestock. In Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, nearly 627,000 head of cattle and calves and
over 8,000 hogs and pigs were located in counties that sustained hurricane force winds. Reports
from private sources indicate that more that 4,000 cattle may have been lost because of flooding.
These lost animals are valued at $3 million.

In Louisiana, 19 percent of broiler production is in counties that sustained hurricane force winds
and 48 percent is in counties that incurred tropical force winds. Forty-one percent of broiler
production in Texas is in counties that incurred hurricane force winds from Rita and an
additional 11 percent is in counties that sustained tropical force winds. Downed power lines and
the loss of electricity appear to be the major problems faced by Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas
poultry producers. There were also scattered reports of structural damage but no reports of birds
lost. The two largest broiler chicken processors (Tyson and Pilgrim) in the U.S. have reported
that Hurricane Rita had minimal impact on their contracted production farms and processing
facilities.

Dairy. About 6,300 dairy cows were located in counties affected by hurricane force winds and
31,000 were located in counties subjected to tropical storm winds. Many producers in counties
subjected to hurricane force winds had damage to buildings and equipment, and because of
damage to power lines, would have been unable to milk their cows without generators. In
counties affected by hurricane force winds, lost producer sales of milk could amount to about
$400,000 per week. In addition, some dairy cows may have also been lost but no estimates are
available. The average value of a dairy cow exceeds $1,800. There will also likely be an
adverse effect on dairy cow productivity, which will reduce future milk production.

Fish and Shellfish. In 2004, cash receipts from the sales of farm-raised fish, shrimp and other
aquaculture products reached $334 million in the three States affected by Rita’s hurricane and
tropical force winds. Rita may have resulted in losses to producers of fish and shellfish products.
Private sources estimate losses of $80 million in Louisiana, which likely includes estimated
losses incurred by commercial fisheries.

Grain Elevators. There are seven export grain elevators located in the Texas Gulf region, with
a combined storage capacity of approximately 33 million bushels. Two of the export elevators,
with a combined storage capacity of 11 million bushels, are located in Corpus Christi, Texas,
well south and west of the path of Hurricane Rita. The Corpus Christi ship channel is open to
unrestricted navigation. Another Texas Gulf export elevator with a capacity of about 3 million
bushels is located at Brownville, Texas. That elevator is also located south of the Rita’s path.

Three of the export elevators, with a combined capacity of 15 million bushels, are in the
Houston/Galveston, Texas port region. This region received heavy rains and high winds from
Rita. Reports indicated that only minimal damage was sustained and it would take less than one
week for two elevators to come online, with the main problems being a lack of electricity and a
shortage of personnel. Initial assessments are that the seventh elevator at Beaumont, Texas,
sustained little physical damage, even though the elevator was directly in the path of Rita. The
sources indicate the port of Beaumont, Texas, was without power and that it could take up to a


nonmally produce about 24 million bushels of soybeans. Eighty-five percent of the affected
acreage was subjected to tropical force winds. About 73 percent of the soybeans in Louisiana,
78 percent in Mississippi and an estimated 50 percent in Texas were harvested prior to the
arrival of Rita. The October 12 Crop Production report reduced soybean production in Louisiana
by 1.5 million bushels. The hurricane could also increase losses and harvesting costs on
unharvested soybeans in Mississippi and Texas. The value of soybean production losses in all
three hurricane affected States are estimated at $8 million, which includes an estimated loss of
2.5 percent on unharvested soybeans in Mississippi and Texas.

Rice and Upland Cotton. No rice in Mississippi was affected by hurricane or tropical force
winds from Rita but over 85 percent of rice in Louisiana and 76 percent of rice in Texas was
subjected to hurricane and tropical force winds. In Louisiana, 71 percent of the rice and 16
percent of the rice in Texas were subjected to hurricane force winds. However, many Louisiana
and Texas rice producers harvested their crop prior to the arrival of Rita. Ninety-two percent of
the rice acreage in Louisiana and 98 percent of Texas rice had been harvested before Rita passed
through these two States. In addition, heavy rain from Rita likely reduced Arkansas’ rice
production, which declined by 2.9 million cwt. in the October 12 Crop Production report. Rice
production losses are valued at $24 million, which includes increased harvest losses on
unharvested rice in Louisiana and Texas.

Two-thirds of cotton production in Louisiana and 5 percent of the cotton in Texas sustained
hurricane or tropical force winds. Nearly all of the affected acreage was subjected to tropical
force winds rather than the much more damaging hurricane force winds. The acreage subjected
to hurricane and tropical forces winds would normally produce about 1.1 million bales. Prior to
the arrival of Rita, the cotton harvest in Louisiana was 39 percent complete and 23 percent
complete in Texas. Early reports indicate that deterioration in quality is a greater concern than
yield loss, with most farmers waiting for fields to dry before assessing damage. The October 12,
Crop Production report lowered Louisiana’s cotton crop by 50,000 bales. Cotton production
losses are valued at $20 million, including assumed losses of 10 percent on unharvested acreage
in Mississippi and Texas. This estimate does not include quality losses.

Sugarcane. Hurricane and tropical force winds from Rita hit essentially all of the sugarcane
growing areas of Louisiana, with 20-25 percent of Louisiana’s crop subjected to hurricane force
winds. Further compounding the damage, Hurricane Rita’s tidal surge caused major flooding to
southern Louisiana’s sugarcane crop. The October 12, Crop Production report lowered
Louisiana’s sugarcane production by 810,000 tons or 7 percent. The decline in Louisiana’s
sugarcane crop has an estimated farm value of $24 million and a processed (cane sugar) value of
$42 million. Harvest costs will also increase.

Fruits, Vegetables, Tree Nuts and Nursery Crops. Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas produce
a wide variety of fruit, nuts, vegetables and nursery crops. In 2004, sales of fruits, nuts,

vegetables and greenhouse/nursery crops amounted to $2.3 billion in Louisiana, Mississippi and
Texas, with Texas accounting for over 85 percent of total sales in these three States. A private
source estimates losses of fruits, vegetables, tree nuts and greenhouse/nursery crops resulting
from Hurricane Rita at $9 million in Louisiana. This estimate includes estimated losses of $5.6
million to the pecan crop. No loss estimates have been reported for Mississippi or Texas.


corn and soybean production and about 3 percent of cattle inventory. About 6 percent of
broiler, 5 percent of cotton, 16 percent of rice and 35 percent of U.S. sugarcane production is in
counties that incurred either hurricane or tropical force winds.

Major livestock areas along the middle Texas coast escaped a direct hurricane strike, but
maturing sugarcane in south-central Louisiana was subjected to heavy rains and local wind gusts
in excess of 50 mph. Rita also produced drenching rainfall (as much as 4 to 8 inches) and gusty
winds in the Delta, where rice, open-boll cotton and other unharvested summer crops were
highly vulnerable to adverse conditions. In addition, the loss of electricity, and damage to roads
and port facilities interrupted the movement and processing of milk and other agricultural
products.

Method of Estimating Production Losses. USDA State Emergency Boards have been
reporting regularly to USDA on estimated agricultural damages due to Hurricane Rita based on
on-site observations. Industry associations and others have also reported on losses. On October
12, USDA released the Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports. These reports provide the first systematic assessment of the effects of Rita on
production of major field crops. The Crop Production report uses surveys to forecast yield and
production for 2005 field crops in the United States, reflecting crop conditions as of October 1.
The sections that follow estimate the portion of the crop production expected for 2005/06 (prior
to harvest and weather loss) and the livestock inventory affected by hurricane and tropical force
winds (appendix table 1). This information is combined with the October Crop Production
report and other information to estimate production losses.

Corn, Sorghum and Soybeans. Hurricane and tropical force winds from Rita affected an
estimated 58 percent of the com in Louisiana, 1 percent of corn in Mississippi and 4 percent of
corn in Texas (appendix table 1). Across all three affected States, hurricane and tropical force
winds could have reduced production on acreage normally yielding about 38 million bushels,
with nearly all of this production on acreage subjected to tropical force winds rather than more
much damaging hurricane force winds. The corn harvest in Louisiana had been completed and
94 percent of the corn in Mississippi and 73 percent of the corn in Texas had been harvested
before the Rita hit these States, further limiting the loss in corn production (table 2). The
October 12 Crop Production report reduced corn production in Mississippi by 730,000 bushels.
_ In addition, severe lodging of unharvested corn in Texas could result in production losses and
higher harvesting costs in that State. The value of corn production losses are estimated at about
$2 million, which includes an assumed loss of 10 percent on unharvested corn in Texas (table 3).

Over 80 percent of sorghum in Louisiana and 11 percent of sorghum in Texas were subjected to
hurricane and tropical force winds from Rita. Hurricane and tropical force winds could have
reduced production on acreage producing about 20 million bushels of sorghum, with over 90
percent of this acreage subjected to tropical force winds. Prior to the arrival of Rita, the sorghum
harvest was 99 complete in Louisiana and 59 percent complete in Texas. The October 12 Crop
report lowered sorghum production in Texas by 3.7 million bushels for an estimated loss of $7
million.

Hurricane and tropical force winds affected over 70 percent of the soybeans in Louisiana, about
1 percent in Mississippi and 19 percent of the soybeans in Texas. The acreage affected would


Table 1. Estimated Soybean and Corn Losses in Major Drought-Affected States

Soybean Summary

Arkansas Illinois Indiana |__ Missouri Ohio | Wisconsin

2005 yield (bw/ac) as of Oct. 1 34.0 45.0 46.0 35.0 44.0 38.0
5-year average yield (bu/ac) 33.8 43.9 45.3 36.3 40.1 36.8
2005 trend yield (bu/ac) 35.6 45.8 46.6 37.1 46.6 40.5
Yield difference from average (bu/ac) 0.2 1d 0.7 -13 3.9 12
Yield difference from trend (bu/ac) -1.6 -0.8 0.6 -2.1 2.6 2.5
2005 harvested area (1,000 acres) 3,000 9,450 5,370 4,950 4,470 1,580
Production

with 2005 yield (1,000 bu) 102,000. 425,250 247,020 173,250 196,680 60,040

with 5-year average yield (1,000 bu) 101,400 414,855 243,261 179,685 179,247 58,144

with trend yield (1,000 bu) 106,800 432,810 250,242 183,645 | 208,302 63,990.

difference from average (1,000 bu) 600 10,395 3,759 6,435 17,433 1,896

Difference from trend (1,000 bu) ~4,800 -7,560 -3,222 -10,395 -11,622 -3,950
Price (Forecast U.S. average farm price, $/bu) 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40 5.40
Production value difference from average ($1,000) 3,240 56,133 20,299 -34,749 94,138 10,238
Productions value difference from trend ($1,000) -25,920 40,824 -17,399 56,133 ~62,759 -21,330
Corn Summary

Arkansas Illinois Indiana Missouri__| Ohio Wisconsin

2005 yield (bu/ac) 128.0 145.0 149.0 105.0 141.0 138.0
5-year average yield (bu/ac) 137.8 156.4 147.4 130.2 137.6 131.8
2005 trend yield (bu/ac) 138.5 158.8 148.4 129.7 140.5 139.5
Yield difference from average (bu/ac) -9.8 -114 1.6 -25.2 3.4 6.2
Yield difference from trend (bw/ac) -10.5 -13.8 0.6 24.7 0.5 -L5
2005 harvested area (1,000 acres) 230 11950 5750 2950 3220 2850.
Production

with 2005 yield (1,000 bu) 29,440 | 1,732,750 856,750 309,750 | 454,020 393,300

with 5-year average yield (1,000 bu) 31,694 | 1,868,980 847,550 384,090 | 443,072 375,630

with trend yield (1,000 bu) 31,855 | _1,897,660 853,330 382,615 | 452,410 397,575

difference from average (1,000 bu) 2,254 -136,230 9,200 -74,340 10,948 17,670.

Difference from trend (1,000 bu) 2,415 164,910 3,450 -72,865 1,610 4,275
Price (U.S. average loan rate $/bu.) 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Revenue difference from average ($1,000) 4,395 265,649 17,940 |__-144,963 21,349 34,457
Production value difference from trend ($1,000) 4,709 -321,575 6,728 | -142,087 3,140 -8,336