# Tracking New Coal - Fired Power Plants (data update 12/13/2010) 

## January 14, 2011 

# National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning Erik Shuster2 

# Tracking New Coal - Fired Power Plants This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal -fired power plants that are under development . This report may not represent all possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate the potential that exists for installation of new coal -fired power plants . Additional perspective has been added for non -coal -fired generation additions in the U . S . and coal -fired power plant activity in China . Experience has shown that public announcements of power plant developments do not provide an accurate representation of eventually commissioned power plants . Actual plant capacity commissioned has historically been significantly less then new capacity announced . The report focuses on those coal -fired power plant projects that have achieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generation industry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regions of the United States . 

## The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of this information.3 

# Tracking New Coal - Fired Power Plants

• This report provides a perspective of coal -fired power plants that are currently under development, with a focus on those having made significant progress toward achieving commercial operation • The status of projects identified varies from project announcements to those under construction • Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators of commitment of capital and human resources to actual development and follow-through to actual capacity additions is highly dependent on the market environment • Plants that are permitted or under construction (“Progressing Projects”) reflect a more significant financial and human resource commitment to completion and offer a better perspective of the new generation capacity that may be forthcoming4 

# Past Capacity Announcements vs. Actual **Figure 1**

**Source: 2007 & 2010 data Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **2002 –**  **2005 data –**  **Previous NETL Tracking New Coal -** **Fired Power Plants Reports** 

## 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Capacity (GW)



## Actual 2002 Report 2005 Report 2007 Report 2010 Report Delays in Implementation

Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity; the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.5 **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **2010 data –**  **12/13/2010** 

## 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Capacity (GW)



## Actual 2010 2009 2008 2007 72 GW 49 GW 32 GW 64 GW 8 GW 

# Latest Capacity Announcements vs. Actual **Figure 1a**

Totals → **Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements**6



# Current Coal - Fired Capacity Projects **(Annual Change)** 

# Table 1

Status Listing Description Under Construction Project is under construction. Near Construction Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun. Permitted In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated. Announced Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study. Progressing Projects Uncertain Potential and Timing

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  Data reflects change between 1/8/2010 and 12/13/2010 Number of Plants Capacity (MW) General Status Jan 2010 Dec 2010 Net Change Jan 2010 Dec 2010 Net Change Under Construction 22 12 - 10 13,755 7,619 - 6,136 Near Construction 1 1 0 320 320 0 Permitted 8 8 0 3,280 6,446 +3,166 SUB TOTAL 31 21 - 10 17,355 14,385 -2,970 Announced (early stages of development) 46 36 - 10 26,233 17,385 - 8,848 TOTAL 77 57 -20 43,588 32,259 - 11,329 Commissioned this Period - 11 +11 - 6,682 +6,682 TOTAL December 2010 Progressing and Commissioned 32 +1 21,067 +3,7127 

# Current Capacity Additions by Years **Refer to Table 1**

• Table 1 reflects the current status of coal -fired plant development activity as of December 13, 2010 **(January 8, 2010 through December 13, 2010)**


### • “ **Progressing**” plants represent projects with status indicating permitted, near construction, or under construction

• “ **Progressing**” plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects

• 6,682 MW (11 plants) have become operational during 2010 as of December 2010; this is the highest level of coal -fired plant **Commissioned** in 25 years (since 1985)

• There has been a net increase of 3,712 MW (+21%) of total **Progressing and/or Commissioned**  projects through 2010 over **Progressing** projects in January8 

# Current Coal Capacity Additions by Years **Figure 2**

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)** 

### 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Capacity (GW) 

## Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual **Commissioned** in 2010 • Rodemacher ( Brame) (700 MW) • Comanche (850 MW) • Iatan (850 MW) • J K Spruce (820 MW) • Oak Creek- Unit 1 (615 MW) • Oak Grove (879 MW) • Plumb Point (720 MW) • Southwest (300 MW) • Trimble (834 MW) • Willmar (4 MW) • Wygen III (110 MW)

Operational Dates **Proposed Actual** 9 

# Currently Proposed and Forecasted Coal - Fired Capacity

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Capacity (GW)

Proposed - Progressing Proposed -Announced EIA AEO 2011 er 

### Virtually No New Coal in Reference case Following Several CCS Demos

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010) EIA**  **– AEO 2011 early release, Reference Case**  

# Figure 310 

# Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18GW’s of New Capacity 

## Largest Build Since 1985

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)** 

# Figure 411 

# Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

- 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1

0 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Capacity (GW) Proposed Online Year

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements Capacity Change Breakdown 6,267 MW operational now removed from the list 6,418 MW canceled • 935 MW permitted cancelled • 22 MW construction cancelled • 5,461 MW announcements cancelled 1,599 MW of new announcements added Removed Capacity 

## 43% **of MWs removed represent “Announced” projects 49%**  **of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants** Removed Capacity

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(1/8/2010 and 12/13/2010) Total Net Reductions (less operating)**  **- 4,647 MW**  

## Figure 5

**Commissioned** in 2010 (as of December) • Rodemacher ( Brame) (700 MW) • Comanche (850 MW) • Iatan (850 MW) • J K Spruce (820 MW) • Oak Creek- Unit 1 (615 MW) • Oak Grove (879 MW) • Plumb Point (720 MW) • Southwest (300 MW) • Trimble (834 MW) • Willmar (4 MW) • Wygen III (110 MW)12 Technology Listings Operational (Since 2000) Progressing (Permitted, Near -, and Under Construction) Announced Total Proposed January

2010 Dec 2010 (Change) January 2010 Dec 2010 (Change) January 2010 Dec 2010 (Change) PC Subcritical 31 11 

### 6 ( -5) 13 10 (- 3) 24 16 (- 8) CFB 12 6 

### 4 ( -2) 11 9 (- 2) 17 13 (-4) PC Supercritical 7 8 

### 6 ( -2) 7 4 (- 3) 15 10 (- 5) IGCC 1 6 

### 5 ( - 1) 15 13 (- 2) 21 18 (- 3) **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  Data collected (1/8/2010); Current Report data collected (12/13/2010) 

# Proposed Technologies of New Plants (with Annual change) 

## Figure 6

**Table 2** 0 10 20
6 4 6 5 10 9 4 13Number of Plants 

### Announced Progressing13 

# Geographical location by State: Coal - Fired Plants **(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction) Figure 7** 

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)**14 

# Location by NERC Regions: Coal - Fired Plants **(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)**

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)** 

## Figure 815 

# Specified Coal Ranks **All Proposed Plants Figure 9** 

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)** 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000Proposed Plant Capacities(MW)

19,779 MW “Generic Coal” not shown on chart16 

# Coal - Fired Build Rate **China and United States**

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Capacity (GW) 

## Figure 10

**Source: USA data**  **- Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010) China data**  **– Platts**  **- UDI WEPPDB 2010**  Online Year **Results are Stacked** 209 GW of Undetermined Dates

of Chinese Plants

Planned no date (evenly distributed over 4 years)17 

# Other Generation Development Activity18 

# Proposed U.S. New Capacity **Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear**

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)



## Coal NG Wind Nuclear

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity**  **Suite 12/13/2010** 

# Figure 1219 

# Status of Proposed New U.S. Capacity **Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear**

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45CoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNucCoalNGWindNuc 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)



## Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity**  **Suite 12/13/2010** 

# Figure 1320 

# Current Wind Capacity Additions by Years **Figure 14** 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Capacity (GW) 

## Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

**Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)** Operational Dates **Proposed Actual** 21 

# Current NGCC Capacity Additions by Years **Figure 15** 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Capacity (GW) 

## Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

**Proposed Actual**  Operational Dates **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)**22 

# Current NG - GT Capacity Additions by Years **Figure 16** 

0 5 10 15 20 25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Capacity (GW) 

## Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

**Proposed Actual**  Operational Dates **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)**23 

# Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by Years **Figure 17** 

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Capacity (GW) 

## Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

**Proposed Actual**  Watts Bar Unit 2 Construction begun in the 1970s, suspended in 1988 at 80% complete, currently revived with completion due 2012.
Operational Dates **Source: Ventyx**  **– Velocity Suite**  **(12/13/2010)**24

# U.S. Coal - Fired Power Plant Summary – Year 2010 1/8/2010 – 12/13/2010



## • Eleven new coal - plants totaling 6,682 MW were **Commissioned** in 2010; the most in 25 years • **Progressing/Commissioned** projects by December 2010 have had a net increase of 1 plant; a net change in capacity of 3,712 MW (+21%) over **Progressing** projects in January 2010 • 1,599 MW of new capacity has been **Announced** and 6,418 MW have been canceled

– Of 6,418 MW canceled plants, 85% were Announced phase and 15% were Progressing 

## • Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being **Announced** to offset recent **Commissioning**