Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

(data update 12/13/2010)

January 14, 2011

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning

Erik Shuster
2

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired

power plants that are under development. This report may not represent

all possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate the

potential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants.

Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generation

additions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China.

Experience has shown that public announcements of power plant

developments do not provide an accurate representation of eventually

commissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned has

historically been significantly less then new capacity announced.

The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that have

achieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more

accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generation

industry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regions

of the United States.

The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy or 

suitability of this information.
3

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

• This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants that 

are currently under development, with a focus on those having 

made significant progress toward achieving commercial 

operation

• The status of projects identified varies from project 

announcements to those under construction

• Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators of 

commitment of capital and human resources to actual 

development and follow-through to actual capacity additions is 

highly dependent on the market environment

• Plants that are permitted or under construction (“Progressing 

Projects”) reflect a more significant financial and human resource 

commitment to completion and offer a better perspective of the 

new generation capacity that may be forthcoming
4

Past Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1

Source: 2007 & 2010 data Ventyx – Velocity Suite 

2002 – 2005 data – Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity (GW)

Actual 2002 Report 2005 Report 2007 Report 2010 Report

Delays in Implementation

Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity;

the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.
5

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite 

2010 data – 12/13/2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity (GW)

Actual 2010 2009 2008 2007

8 GW 32 GW 49 GW 64 GW 72 GW

Latest Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1a

Totals →

Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements
6

Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)

Table 1

Status Listing Description

Under Construction Project is under construction.

Near Construction Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering, 

Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun.

Permitted In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated.

Announced Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.

Progressing 

Projects

Uncertain 

Potential and 

Timing

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite

Data reflects change between 1/8/2010 and 12/13/2010

Number of Plants Capacity (MW)

General Status Jan

2010

Dec

2010

Net

Change

Jan

2010

Dec

2010

Net

Change

Under Construction 22 12 -10 13,755 7,619 -6,136

Near Construction 1 1 0 320 320 0

Permitted 8 8 0 3,280 6,446 +3,166

SUB TOTAL 31 21 -10 17,355 14,385 -2,970

Announced (early stages of 

development) 46 36 -10 26,233 17,385 -8,848

TOTAL 77 57 -20 43,588 32,259 -11,329

Commissioned this Period - 11 +11 - 6,682 +6,682

TOTAL December 2010 

Progressing and Commissioned 32 +1 21,067 +3,712
7

Current Capacity Additions by Years

Refer to Table 1

• Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as of 

December 13, 2010 (January 8, 2010 through December 13, 2010)

• “Progressing” plants represent projects with status indicating permitted,

near construction, or under construction

• “Progressing” plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward 

commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and 

industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects

• 6,682 MW (11 plants) have become operational during 2010 as of December 2010; 

this is the highest level of coal-fired plant Commissioned in 25 years (since 1985)

• There has been a net increase of 3,712 MW (+21%) of total Progressing and/or 

Commissioned projects through 2010 over Progressing projects in January
8

Current Coal Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 2

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Capacity (GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Commissioned in 2010

• Rodemacher (Brame) (700 MW)

• Comanche (850 MW)

• Iatan (850 MW)

• J K Spruce (820 MW)

• Oak Creek-Unit 1 (615 MW)

• Oak Grove (879 MW)

• Plumb Point (720 MW)

• Southwest (300 MW)

• Trimble (834 MW)

• Willmar (4 MW)

• Wygen III (110 MW)

Operational Dates

Actual Proposed
9

Currently Proposed and Forecasted

Coal-Fired Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Capacity (GW)

Proposed-Progressing Proposed-Announced EIA AEO 2011 er

Virtually No New Coal in 

Reference case Following 

Several CCS Demos

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

EIA – AEO 2011 early release, Reference Case

Figure 3
10

Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

GW’s of New Capacity

Largest Build Since 1985

Source: Ventyx– Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

Figure 4
11

Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Capacity (GW)

Proposed Online Year

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements

Capacity Change Breakdown

6,267 MW operational now removed from the list 

6,418 MW canceled

• 935 MW permitted cancelled 

• 22 MW construction cancelled

• 5,461 MW announcements cancelled

1,599 MW of new announcements added

Removed Capacity

43% of MWs removed represent “Announced” projects

49% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants

Removed Capacity

Source: Ventyx– Velocity Suite (1/8/2010 and 12/13/2010)

Total Net Reductions (less operating) -4,647 MW

Figure 5

Commissioned in 2010 (as of December)

• Rodemacher (Brame) (700 MW)

• Comanche (850 MW)

• Iatan (850 MW)

• J K Spruce (820 MW)

• Oak Creek-Unit 1 (615 MW)

• Oak Grove (879 MW)

• Plumb Point (720 MW)

• Southwest (300 MW)

• Trimble (834 MW)

• Willmar (4 MW)

• Wygen III (110 MW)
12

Technology 

Listings

Operational

(Since 2000)

Progressing

(Permitted, Near-, and Under 

Construction)

Announced Total

Proposed

January

2010

Dec 2010

(Change)

January

2010

Dec 2010

(Change)

January

2010

Dec 2010

(Change)

PC Subcritical 31 11 6 (-5) 13 10 (-3) 24 16 (-8)

CFB 12 6 4 (-2) 11 9 (-2) 17 13 (-4)

PC Supercritical 7 8 6 (-2) 7 4 (-3) 15 10 (-5)

IGCC 1 6 5 (-1) 15 13 (-2) 21 18 (-3)

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite

Data collected (1/8/2010); Current Report data collected (12/13/2010) 

Proposed Technologies of New Plants

(with Annual change) 

Figure 6

Table 2

0

10

20

6 4 6 5

10

9 4

13

Number of Plants

Announced

Progressing
13

Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 7

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)
14

Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

Figure 8
15

Specified Coal Ranks

All Proposed Plants

Figure 9

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Proposed Plant Capacities (MW)

19,779 MW “Generic Coal”

not shown on chart
16

Coal-Fired Build Rate

China and United States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Capacity (GW)

Figure 10

Source: USA data - Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

China data – Platts - UDI WEPPDB 2010

Online Year

Results are Stacked

209 GW of 

Undetermined Dates 

of Chinese Plants

Planned no date 

(evenly distributed 

over 4 years)
17

Other Generation Development Activity
18

Proposed U.S. New Capacity

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

Coal NG Wind Nuclear

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite 12/13/2010

Figure 12
19

Status of Proposed New U.S. Capacity

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

Coal

NG

Wind

Nuc

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite 12/13/2010

Figure 13
20

Current Wind Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Capacity (GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)

Operational Dates

Actual Proposed
21

Current NGCC Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity (GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Actual Proposed

Operational Dates

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)
22

Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 16

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Capacity (GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Actual Proposed

Operational Dates

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)
23

Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Capacity (GW)

Announced

Permitted

Near Construction

Under Construction

Actual

Actual Proposed

Watts Bar Unit 2

Construction begun in the 1970s, 

suspended in 1988 at 80% complete, 

currently revived with completion 

due 2012.

Operational Dates

Source: Ventyx – Velocity Suite (12/13/2010)
24

U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary – Year 2010 

1/8/2010 – 12/13/2010

• Eleven new coal-plants totaling 6,682 MW were Commissioned in 

2010; the most in 25 years

• Progressing/Commissioned projects by December 2010 have had 

a net increase of 1 plant; a net change in capacity of 3,712 MW 

(+21%) over Progressing projects in January 2010

• 1,599 MW of new capacity has been Announced and

6,418 MW have been canceled

– Of 6,418 MW canceled plants, 85% were Announced phase and 15% were 

Progressing

• Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announced

to offset recent Commissioning