FOOD DYNAMICS

Up-to-date information on retail food market conditions and consumer behavior

AND USDA’s NEW DIETARY GUIDELINES

For more detailed information, contact Ephraim Leibtag at eleibtag@ers.usda.gov

U.S. Department of Agriculture • Economic Research Service • Economic Information Bulletin Number 5 • September 2005

For more detailed information, visit the ERS web site:

www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/CPIFoodAndExpenditures

Vegetables

Cheese

Cereals and cereal products

Sugar and sweets

Noncarbonated drinks

Fruits

Poultry

Pork

Fish

Carbonated drinks

Processed meats

Beef

Milk

Eggs

Fats and oils

Percent change

Source: ERS calculations using ACNielsen Scanner Data (sales estimates 

from all major retail channels and a wide variety of food products making up 

most of the food-at-home items purchased by U.S. consumers).

Change in quantity sold, major at-home food categories

1st Quarter 2005 vs 

1st Quarter 2004

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10

The most notable increases in food purchases were for

fruits and noncarbonated drinks (see chart at right).

Lower fruit prices at the beginning of the year

encouraged consumers to increase their fruit purchases

by 6 percent.

The introduction of new varieties of noncarbonated

drinks led consumers to increase their purchases (up 6

percent), switching away from carbonated drinks (down

2 percent).

Higher prices for most meat products, along with waning

interest in low-carbohydrate diets, led to a decrease in

purchases across all of the major protein categories, with

pork, poultry, and fish showing the largest declines.

Carbs Up; Meat Down in 

First Quarter 2005 

Increases Decreases

Quantity sold Sales in dollars Quantity sold Sales in dollars

Percent change Percent change

Yogurt shakes and drinks 31 29 Grapefruit -33 -14

Ready-made salads 19 30 Grapefruit juice -32 -18

Bottled water 17 17 Frozen apple juice -11 -12

Sugar substitutes 9 2 Veal -10 1

Butter 3 22 Eggs 0 -27

Convenience was a major driver of increased

consumer purchases; yogurt drinks, ready-made

salads, and bottled water all rose by at least 17

percent (see tables below).

Consumer concerns about sugar may have led to 9-

percent increase in purchases of sugar substitutes.

Butter price increases led to a 22-percent increase in

retail sales in dollars, while quantities were up just 3

percent.

The 30-percent decline in the volume of grapefruit

purchases is attributed to hurricane damage in the fall

of 2004.

As consumers switched to convenient shelf-stable

varieties of apple juice, purchases of frozen apple

juice concentrate declined by 11 percent.

Veal purchases slipped, but price increases led retail

sales in dollars to rise by 1 percent. 

Egg purchases remained steady, but a large decline in

prices led to a 27-percent drop in retail sales in dollars.

Convenience Drives Increases in Food Purchases; 

Price/Availability Drive Decreases

Notable changes, first quarter 2005 vs 2004
About this report

Food Dynamics provides the most up-to-date information on consumer behavior and retail food market conditions. As consumers

continue to spread their food dollars across a widening variety of retail channels, it is important for USDA to be able to track the

trends in retail food markets as they impact agricultural producers and others in the food supply system. This quarterly report uses

a combination of proprietary and government data to provide early warning signals by identifying major products with significant

swings in sales volume, prices, or quantities purchased. Current information on consumer behavior is obtained through the report’s

Rapid Consumer Response Module, which enables ERS to access ACNielsen’s panelists to assess their attitudes and reactions to

market developments and policy events such as new dietary information, price spikes, supply shortages, or food safety incidents. 

2005 vs 2004

After release of Guidelines

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total 

fresh bread

Wholegrain breadTotal rice, incl. 

instant/packaged

Wholegrain riceTotal 

ready-to-eat

cereal

Whole-grain

ready-to-eat

 cereal

Percent change in pounds purchased

Whole-grain purchases rise following release of new Dietary Guidelines

Source: ERS calculations of ACNielsen Scanner Data.

FOOD DYNAMICS AND USDA’S NEW DIETARY GUIDELINES • September 2005

ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IS AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY PROVIDER AND EMPLOYER

See http://www.ers.usda.gov/AboutERS/Privacy.htm for more information

The latest Dietary Guidelines for Americans, released in January,

recommend that half of all daily grain servings come from wholegrain foods. These recommendations, which are echoed in the

newly released MyPyramid, mark a significant departure from

past recommendations, which made no distinction between whole

and refined grains.

The popularity of whole-grain products appears to be rising.

In the 8 weeks after the release of the Guidelines, the average

shopper purchased about 13 percent more pounds of whole-grain

products than during the same period last year. Comparing the 8

weeks before and after the release, shoppers increased purchases

of whole-grain breads by nearly 12 percent, purchases of wholegrain rice by almost 19 percent, and purchases of ready-to-eat

cereals by 16 percent (see chart). 

These increases may arise from changes in dietary awareness. Or

they may result from more choices available to consumers; in

2004 alone, nearly 100 new products touted a whole-grain claim. 

Consumers do modify their food choices in reaction to diet and

health information. For example, due to greater awareness about

the links between diet and high cholesterol, each American today

consumes about half the eggs and about triple the amount of lowfat milk products as in 1950. 

How the study was done. To gauge shoppers’ initial response,

ERS looked at whole-grain purchases over an 8-week period

immediately following the release of the Guidelines. This was

compared with purchases over the previous 8 weeks, as well as the

same 8-week timeframe in 2004 to control for seasonal spikes. 

Behind the headlines

New Dietary Guidelines Spur Sales of Whole-Grain Foods

Lisa Mancino, lmancino@ers.usda.gov