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" ! COMMITTEE PRINT 109TH CONGRESS

1st Session

S. PRT.

2005

109–41

PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: INTERNATIONAL

RESPONSE AND IMPACT ON U.S.

FOREIGN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

STAFF TRIP REPORT

TO THE

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

UNITED STATES SENATE

ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

DECEMBER 2005

Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations

Available via World Wide Web: http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate

COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana, Chairman

CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska

LINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode Island

GEORGE ALLEN, Virginia

NORM COLEMAN, Minnesota

GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio

LAMAR ALEXANDER, Tennessee

JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire

LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska

MEL MARTINEZ, Florida

JOSEPH R. BIDEN, Jr., Delaware

PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland

CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut

JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts

RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin

BARBARA BOXER, California

BILL NELSON, Florida

BARACK OBAMA, Illinois

KENNETH A. MYERS, JR., Staff Director

ANTONY J. BLINKEN, Democratic Staff Director

(II)

CONTENTS

Page

Letter of Transmittal ............................................................................................... v

Summary .................................................................................................................. 1

Earthquake Relief and Recovery ............................................................................ 2

International Donor’s Conference ................................................................... 2

Earthquake Assistance .................................................................................... 3

USAID Response .............................................................................................. 3

Department of Defense (DoD) Response ......................................................... 3

U.S. Private Sector Initiative .......................................................................... 6

Ongoing Needs and Concerns .......................................................................... 6

Shelter ............................................................................................................... 7

Food ................................................................................................................... 7

Children ............................................................................................................. 8

Democracy ................................................................................................................ 9

Education .......................................................................................................... 10

U.S. Assistance Issues ...................................................................................... 11

India-Pakistan Relations ......................................................................................... 12

Recommendations .................................................................................................... 13

Earthquake Relief and Reconstruction ........................................................... 13

Democracy ......................................................................................................... 13

India-Pakistan Relations ................................................................................. 13

(III)

LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

Dear Colleague:

The committee recently sent Ms. Lisa Curtis of the professional

staff to Pakistan to attend the November 19th International Donors’ Conference in Islamabad and to assess international relief

and recovery efforts in response to the October 8th earthquake in

Pakistan.

We are pleased to share with you her trip report, which we believe provides a useful assessment of the situation in Pakistan following the earthquake as well as a careful look at the U.S. response to this monumental disaster. The report examines the implications for U.S. policies and assistance programs to Pakistan as

a result of the earthquake and provides recommendations for sustaining the momentum of our assistance, which has so far successfully demonstrated a strong U.S. commitment to the country.

You also will find in the report an examination of other issues

important to U.S.-Pakistan relations, including strengthening democracy and promoting peace between India and Pakistan. There

are a few recommendations related to these issues that may be

helpful as the Committee on Foreign Relations continues its oversight of U.S. assistance and policies toward Pakistan, where vital

U.S. national security interests are at stake.

We look forward to continuing to work with you on these issues

and welcome any comments you may have on this report.

Sincerely,

RICHARD G. LUGAR,

Chairman

(V)

(1)

PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: INTERNATIONAL

RESPONSE AND IMPACT ON U.S.

FOREIGN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

SUBMITTED BY LISA CURTIS, SFRC PROFESSIONAL STAFF MEMBER

SUMMARY

From November 16–23, 2005, SFRC staffer Lisa Curtis traveled

to Pakistan to attend the November 19th International Donors’

Conference and to assess the international relief and recovery efforts in response to the October 8th earthquake. The itinerary was

designed to allow staff to assess the implications of the earthquake

for U.S. assistance programs to Pakistan as well as U.S. policies related to democracy building and the India-Pakistan peace process.

Staff visited earthquake-affected areas in Muzaffarabad in Pakistani Kashmir and Mansehra and Shinkiari in the Northwest Frontier Province.

The earthquake claimed more than 73,000 lives, many of them

children who were attending school when the quake measuring 7.6

on the Richter scale struck at 8:50 am on October 8th. At the Donors’ Conference, the international community pledged over $6.2

billion in cash, in-kind assistance, and soft loans. But staff found

relief efforts remain difficult, given the rugged and mountainous

terrain of the affected areas. Many survivors are in far-flung areas

that are difficult to access and concerns remain about their ability

to cope during the winter months in the absence of adequate shelter and supplies.

The response to the earthquake disaster by the U.S. Embassy

and USAID Mission in close coordination with the U.S. military

was reportedly rapid, efficient, and robust. This humanitarian gesture has demonstrated to the Pakistani Government and people

that the U.S. is firmly committed to the country and its well-being.

The U.S. must pay particular attention to the issue of transparency

and accountability in the distribution of aid, a key concern among

the Pakistani population.

The Pakistan military is working closely with a mobilized Pakistani civil society and an extraordinary international non-governmental organization (NGO) effort to help earthquake victims. Despite the relatively favorable view of the Pakistan Army’s role in

relief efforts, conversations with mainstream politicians and members of the civil society and think tank community revealed a hunger for a return to democratic politics. The U.S. needs to begin focusing its policies and assistance programs now toward the

achievement of civilian government through free and fair elections

in 2007. The impact of the earthquake on the Pakistan-India peace

2

1The U.S. has pledged $300 million in relief and reconstruction assistance; $110 million in

transportation and military support; and $100 million in private donations.

process is still unclear, although both Pakistani President

Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Singh appear personally

committed to moving it forward.

EARTHQUAKE RELIEF AND RECOVERY

International Donors’ Conference

The November 19th International Donors’ Conference in

Islamabad, attended by over 75 nations and international organizations, was successful in raising $6.2 billion in cash, in-kind assistance, and soft loans. The most generous bilateral donors include

Saudi Arabia ($593 million in grants and soft loans); the U.S. ($510

million in grant and in-kind assistance); 1 China ($320 million in

grants and loans); Iran ($200 million credit line); and the United

Arab Emirates ($200 million in grants). Among the multilateral

lenders, the World Bank pledged $1 billion in soft loans; the Asian

Development Bank $1 billion in grants and loans; and the Islamic

Development Bank $500 million in soft loans.

In his remarks at the conference, Pakistani Prime Minister

Shaukhat Aziz highlighted the Pakistan government’s commitment

to helping earthquake survivors rebuild their lives, indicating this

effort would be a ‘‘marathon, not a 100-meter dash.’’ The government created the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Authority (ERRA) to rapidly rehabilitate and reconstruct the devastated regions. PM Aziz said ERRA’s work would be fully transparent and that all political parties would be invited to participate

in reconstruction work through the mechanism of a parliamentary

committee.

UN Secretary General Kofi Anan noted that Pakistan needed the

enduring support of the international community, and called on donors to focus on recovery needs, such as cash grants to restore livelihoods; resumption of schooling for children; and the re-opening of

roads. In helping to rehabilitate and reconstruct the affected areas,

the international community would change the lives of the survivors.

President Musharraf, during his speech, pointed to the historical

moment the earthquake had provided regarding Pakistan-India relations. Out of the 75 attendees from across the globe, President

Musharraf singled out India’s participation as historically significant and thanked the Indian government for its contribution of $25

million in relief aid. He then laid out a detailed plan for rebuilding

the devastated areas and encouraged donors to ‘‘adopt’’ individual

homes, schools, or hospitals for construction. He vowed that his

government would ‘‘turn this human catastrophe into an opportunity for human development.’’ Musharraf acknowledged that his

government initially had difficulties transporting goods to the affected populations, and that it was only through the help of the

international fleet of helicopters that this problem was resolved. He

said his government was on track to provide 500,000 tents to victims who lost their homes, and that the issue of providing shelter

was now ‘‘satisfactory.’’

3

2PEW Global Attitudes Project, July, 2005.

3 Information in this paragraph was drawn largely from the USAID ‘‘South Asia Earthquake

Update’’ dated December 2, 2005.

Musharraf highlighted the government’s efforts to monetize the earthquake-affected areas through the provision of $350 million in

cash to earthquake victims ($1,700 to next of kin and an additional

$450 to each of the 400,000 affected families). He said this will help

generate business and economic activity. The President also announced a Pakistan Volunteer Corps to channel the ‘‘patriotic energy’’ and huge outpouring from Pakistani civilians that had resulted from the disaster.

U.S. Earthquake Assistance

There is tremendous appreciation among the Pakistani people for

the immediate, robust, and sustained U.S. relief efforts in the country. Even our harshest critics admit that the U.S. has come

through for Pakistan at a critical moment and that this generous

humanitarian gesture is improving the average Pakistanis’ image

of America. This is no small feat, given that polling data from last

summer showed that only 23 percent of the Pakistani population

held a favorable view of the U.S., while 51 percent of Pakistanis

had a great deal of confidence in Usama Bin Laden.2

The success of U.S. relief efforts in Pakistan is due in large part

to the work of the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad under the leadership

of Ambassador Crocker. According to interviews with Embassy personnel, Ambassador Crocker was quick off the mark in assessing

how the U.S. should respond to the devastating earthquake and

has worked assiduously with Embassy staff over the last two

months to ensure an effective humanitarian response.

USAID Response

USAID has so far disbursed about $60 million in earthquake relief assistance. Immediately following the earthquake, USAID focused its efforts on providing humanitarian assistance and shelter

to the earthquake victims. USAID has also taken steps to promote

livelihoods and market revitalization and has so far provided about

$4.5 million for cash-for-work, cash-for-training, and voucher activities. USAID is funding distribution of shelter materials, such as

metal sheeting, tools, and tarpaulins, and supports about a dozen

international NGOs working in Pakistan. USAID is housed on the

Embassy compound in newly-constructed facilities, but it is clear

these facilities will need to be expanded to accommodate new programs related to earthquake relief operations.3

Department of Defense (DoD) Response

Within 24 hours of the earthquake, the U.S. military sent two

helicopters from Afghanistan. The U.S. now has 16 helicopters involved in relief efforts in Pakistan, down from 24 in mid-November.

DoD reports that there are currently four Australian helicopters

and a fleet of 73 additional international helicopters (mostly Pakistani, for which the U.S. has provided spare parts) involved in the

relief effort. DoD says that winter weather conditions are beginning

to prohibit their ability to fly, but that they intend to retain some

U.S. helicopters in Pakistan through the winter.

4

U.S. Chinook at Chaklala Air Base, the staging ground

for international relief efforts

Perhaps the largest contribution the U.S. military made to the

relief effort was the logistical management of the air space and relief operations staged from Chaklala air base (located adjacent to

the Islamabad International Airport). Given the mountainous terrain of the earthquake-affected regions, limited landing zones, and

the Pakistanis’ limited air traffic control capacity, the Pakistani

system was initially overwhelmed and U.S. military support was

crucial in ensuring a coordinated, efficient, and effective international relief effort. During the November 21st staff visit to

Chaklala air base, U.S. military officers made clear that the Pakistan government was in charge of the international relief effort,

but also reported that the U.S. military had worked closely with

the Pakistan Army to organize and coordinate it. NATO has also

played an instrumental role in providing relief, clearing roads, removing debris, and providing medical assistance. NATO is scheduled to depart Pakistan in February. Pakistani religious parties

have questioned the presence of NATO troops in Pakistan and tried

to whip up fears that NATO was establishing a long-term presence

in the country.

5

4 Information on the current number of patients was drawn from the DoD website.

Relief supplies at Chaklala Air Base

There are currently about 1,000 U.S. soldiers on the ground in

Pakistan, including some from Louisiana who lost their own homes

in Hurricane Katrina. Staff heard numerous stories from a wide

variety of Pakistani interlocutors about the warm feelings the Pakistani population held toward the U.S. military because of their involvement in the relief efforts. Pakistanis had spontaneously

thanked U.S. soldiers in the markets in Islamabad, while U.S. flags

could be found flying in remote villages of Pakistani Kashmir.

During a brief stop in Muzaffarabad, staff visited a U.S. military

mobile medical unit that had been established in late October.

There were 16 doctors and 72 nurses at the facility, treating about

100 patients per day, mostly for broken bones and some cases of

tetanus. Staff also visited a newly-established U.S. mobile medical

unit in Shinkiari in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).

Nearly 200 Okinawa-based Marines and sailors set up camp in this

remote village on November 15th and reportedly treat about 100–

200 patients per day.4

6

Local children receiving medical attention at the U.S. mobile medical

unit in Muzaffarabad

U.S. Private Sector Initiative

On October 27th, President Bush launched a private sector initiative to encourage private donations for relief and reconstruction.

On November 14th, State Department Under Secretary for Public

Diplomacy Karen Hughes led a delegation to Pakistan that included three distinguished U.S. CEO’s: Hank Mckinnell, Chairman

and CEO of Pfizer, Inc.; Anne Mulcahy, Chairman and CEO of

Xerox Corporation; and Jim Kelly, former Chairman and CEO of

United Parcel Service (UPS), Inc. These business leaders will work

with other Americans to raise awareness and resources to help victims of the earthquake. According to an Indiana University-based

tracking system, $73 million in U.S. private donations has so far

been disbursed to victims of the South Asia earthquake.

Ongoing Needs and Concerns

Pakistani interlocutors noted the importance of the U.S. disbursing its aid in a way that encourages transparent and accountable development. Pakistanis, in general, were pleased by the huge

international outpouring of support at the Donors’ Conference, but

they questioned how this money would be disbursed and whether

it would go through the President’s Relief Fund or through established NGOs. During staff visit to Muzaffarabad, one of the Urdu

speakers on the U.S. delegation was stopped by a local woman who

7

claimed that the aid was not being distributed fairly and pleaded

for the U.S. to use its influence to ensure that the aid went to the

people who genuinely needed it.

Staff observed a fair amount of economic activity in downtown

Muzaffarabad, with shopkeepers displaying an array of food items,

clothing, shoes, and other household items. Many shop owners displayed their goods in the open air, with their collapsed shops behind them. There was a tremendous amount of destruction and

rubble that still needed to be cleared.

Earthquake destruction in downtown Muzaffarabad

Shelter

There was mixed feedback on the dangers winter poses to those

in remote areas, but one NGO reported in early December that the

grim predictions of mass deaths registered one month ago now appear unlikely. During staff visit, Pakistan government officials

seemed to think the issue of shelter was under control, while some

NGOs said it is still a question. One Pakistani commentator noted

that since some areas had not yet been accessed, it was impossible

to assess what percentage of the population might still be at risk.

Most NGOs are now focusing on distributing shelter packages

(roofing material and tools) to those in remote areas still without

shelter, rather than trying to transport tents. The UN says it expects an exodus of refugees (100,000–200,000) from the mountains

into low-lying areas in the coming weeks, as villagers flee an increasingly bitter winter.

Food

One local NGO representative working in the Balakot area reported that the availability of food was not yet a problem in these

areas since many people were able to salvage food that had been

8

5This information was drawn from the Basic Education Coalition’s ‘‘After the Earthquake:

Pakistan’s Affected Children and Schools,’’ published in October 2005.

stored in the ground. Food drops had also been successful in remote areas like the Allai Valley. Other NGO representatives reported food shortages in remote areas. Inflation was also a concern,

partly due to the Government’s cash infusion of over $350 million

to affected families. U.S. military officers at Chaklala air base reported that food relief operations were focused largely on moving

food stocks into forward areas since helicopters would not be able

to fly into far-flung areas once snow started to fall.

Children

Pakistani children have suffered tremendously from this disaster, and need special attention from relief workers. It is estimated that perhaps 50 percent of the 73,000 that perished were

children who were attending school when the earthquake struck.

According to the Pakistan government, 16,000 schools were destroyed or badly damaged. UNICEF has identified four fundamental steps to addressing children’s needs in the wake of the disaster: keeping children alive, caring for those children separated

from their parents, protecting children from exploitation, and getting them back to school. Education programs provide security, a

sense of normalcy, and hope for the future. They are ‘‘safe spaces’’

for children and provide a support system, especially for vulnerable

children, such as those separated from their families. 5

Staff visited a makeshift school in Muzaffarabad that the U.S.

military, in cooperation with the local population, had established.

The school, comprising about 15–20 winterized tents, was set up on

a site where an elementary school had completely collapsed. U.S.

soldiers were still clearing much of the debris from the area, but

it was heartening to see about 150–200 children attending school

in the tents. Staff visited an 11th grade class in which the teenage

girls and boys were studying Physics. Some of these children reported living in camps on the outskirts of Muzaffarabad. The students appeared in good health and to be coping as best as could

be expected.

9

Girls attending 11th grade Physics class in a makeshift school established by

the U.S. military, in cooperation with local workers, on the site of a completely

collapsed school in Muzaffarabad

Representatives from an established local NGO, the Kashmir Institute of International Relations (KIIR), reported concerns immediately following the disaster that orphaned children would be trafficked. However, following the Pakistan government’s institution of

a ‘‘no adoption’’ policy and increased scrutiny by security forces of

the transport of children at security check points, the dangers of

child trafficking appeared to be in check.

DEMOCRACY

There were mixed feelings about the Pakistan Army’s role in relief efforts, and widespread criticism that the Army had been slow

to respond in the first 3–4 days, possibly because they were coping

with their own losses along the Line of Control (LoC). Despite its

slow start, a number of people expressed that the Pakistan Army

was now doing a relatively good job with relief efforts and cooperating effectively with international and local NGOs and civilian

volunteers on the ground.

The Pakistani civil society mobilized effectively to help the earthquake victims, a phenomenon that has energized and emboldened

many Pakistani civilians. There was a tremendous urge to help

their countrymen and many Pakistanis rushed to the affected areas

to do whatever they could to help. One commentator noted that

Pakistani civilians now see what they are capable of achieving

when they organize and work together.

During his speech at the Donors’ Conference, Gareth Thomas,

UK Minister for International Development, pointed to the need for

‘‘broad political ownership’’ of the recovery and reconstruction efVerDate 11-MAY-2000 14:21 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00015 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 PAK.TXT SFRELA2 PsN: SFRELA2
10

forts in the country. A UK diplomat said his government saw an

opportunity in the reconstruction process to encourage political reconciliation between the military and mainstream political parties.

There is widespread concern among Pakistani politicians, commentators, and journalists that the democratic process and institutions in Pakistan have been set back under the six-year rule of

President Musharraf. Pakistani interlocutors expressed frustration

that President Musharraf was weakening democratic institutions

and contributing to an overall militarization of society. They

viewed his publicized plan of ‘‘enlightened moderation’’ as disingenuous, noting that his government had contributed to the increasing

influence of the religious parties, while closing the political space

for mainstream political parties with more moderate, progressive

agendas. Some voiced concern that the U.S. had failed to comment

on local bodies elections held in August that were widely viewed as

flawed, and urged that U.S. support for democracy in Pakistan be

given a higher priority in bilateral relations.

Despite complaints about the decay of democratic institutions,

interlocutors widely agreed that the media was much freer than a

few years ago. One Pakistani academic told staff that he felt freer

to publish what he wanted than he did ten years ago under a

democratic government. Many attributed the freedom of the media

to the information explosion rather than any specific government

policy.

There was criticism of President Musharraf’s devolution plan and

the USAID program supporting it. The Pakistan government has

presented its plan for devolution as an effort to improve public

services and has attracted considerable support from international

donors. Some contended, however, that it was merely a plan to ensure the military regime’s survival. Others noted that USAID officials did not have appropriate monitoring mechanisms to ensure

the program’s efficacy and that the program was not meeting the

objective of promoting democracy. USAID officials acknowledged to

staff in mid-December that there had been problems with USAID’s

support to the devolution process but that they had recently identified a new contractor to redesign the USAID program and would

be transitioning to a more focused initiative to support devolution.

The U.S. official noted that it was important to encourage local

government support for health and education programs and that

USAID would focus increasingly on those districts where other

USAID-supported programs are active, addressing governance

issues that impede service delivery.

Education

USAID’s education program in Pakistan began in 2002 and involves both basic and higher education. The education programs

are concentrated in the underdeveloped provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Education funding for Pakistan totaled $66 million for FY 2005.

The Basic Education program benefits over 367,000 Pakistani children and 18,000 teachers and includes teacher training, school improvement, policy and planning, and other basic education activities. The higher education program includes a grant to the FulVerDate 11-MAY-2000 14:21 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00016 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 PAK.TXT SFRELA2 PsN: SFRELA2
11

6 Information in this paragraph was drawn from USAID information sheets provided by the

USAID Mission in Islamabad. 7These figures were provided by USAID staff in December 2005.

8Secretary of State Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations, fiscal year

2006.

bright Commission to provide 500 scholarships for post-graduate

degree scholarships in the U.S.6

Staff visited a USAID-supported girls’ school on the outskirts of Islamabad. Through a grant of only $1,500, USAID inspired the

people of this community to establish a Parent Teacher’s Association (PTA) and build a library for the school. Staff met with members of the PTA, visited with students in the first-grade class, and

toured the library that is under construction. The community has

taken responsibility for equipping the library that will serve the

517 primary and secondary level girl students and teachers.

The U.S. also is encouraging the Government of Pakistan to

spend more of its own resources on education to support President

Musharraf’s goal of promoting a progressive, moderate society.

Pakistan recently pledged to increase its spending on education to

4 percent of its GDP, according to the USAID Mission Director in

Islamabad, and allocated about $35 million to education from the

FY 2005 $200 million in U.S. direct budget support.

U.S. Assistance Issues

Many observers have noted over the last two years that U.S. assistance to Pakistan needs to focus more directly on institution

building and on projects that demonstrate the U.S. is committed to

uplifting the lives of average Pakistanis. A study done last year by

the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues

for more programmed assistance to Pakistan, at least half of which

should be dedicated to supporting a major effort to rebuild institutions. ‘‘The 9/11 Public Disclosure Project,’’ released on November

14, 2005, states that too much of our assistance is in the form of

a cash transfer and that more U.S. funding should be dedicated to

education.

U.S. assistance to Pakistan since September 2001 has focused

largely on debt relief, budgetary support, and to a lesser—but increasing—degree on education, health care, and development

projects. The U.S. has provided about $1.2 billion to the Government of Pakistan for foreign exchange needs and to repay debts to

multilateral institutions since 2001, while USAID has obligated

about $300 million during the same period on health, governance,

and economic growth programs.7 Although the $1.2 billion in direct

funding has helped ease macroeconomic pressures on Pakistan,

such as enabling it to reduce its total government debt from 89 percent of GDP in 2000 to 64 percent in 2004, 8 the administration

should consider whether a portion of this direct assistance can now

be programmed toward additional USAID education, health, and

democracy building projects.

• Out of this fiscal year’s $700 million economic and military assistance package to Pakistan, only $15 million of this funding

is allocated to democracy and governance programs. Staff was

pleased to learn from USAID officials that this sum is expected

to increase in FY 2007 by another $15 million, but this still apVerDate 11-MAY-2000 14:21 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00017 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 PAK.TXT SFRELA2 PsN: SFRELA2
12

pears to be an insufficient sum, given the need for democratic

institution building in the country.

INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

Last month’s opening of five crossing points along the Line of

Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir provided a much-needed boost

to peace efforts, following two weeks of public wrangling between

the two governments over implementation of assistance to the

earthquake survivors. The two sides wasted precious time in the

days following the earthquake by arguing over the use of helicopters. Pakistan refused Indian helicopter support, saying this

would allow New Delhi to collect intelligence in a sensitive part of

the country, while India rebuffed Pakistan’s request that the Indian helicopters be piloted by Pakistani servicemen. The LoC border openings provided a way out of the helicopter impasse, but

many were disappointed by the public jockeying in the wake of the

disaster.

During staff visit, Pakistani Prime Minister Aziz declared his

support for demilitarization and self-rule in Kashmir. Although

Aziz did not provide details on his proposal, some interlocutors in

Pakistan recommended gradual demilitarization in Kashmir, beginning with urban areas. They further asserted that self-rule applied

only to Azad Kashmir on the Pakistan side and the Valley and

three districts of Jammu (Punch, Rajauri, and Jammu districts) on

the Indian side of the LoC. When staff queried how demilitarization can occur when militant violence continues in Indian Kashmir,

they argued that extremist groups will never change their minds

or stop using violence.

A major issue to monitor over the next several months is whether extremist groups, such as the Jamat ul-Dawa (JUD—formerly

the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, a State Department-designated Foreign

Terrorist Organization), are using their increased influence with

the population in Pakistani Kashmir to recruit for the Kashmir

militancy. The JUD was one of the first groups to help rescue victims in Pakistani Kashmir and help families in the region bury

their dead. The JUD is not only familiar with the terrain in these

areas, but also experienced in social outreach and adept at raising

funds at Mosques. Pakistani observers reported that several extremist groups formally banned by the Pakistan government are

now fully operative and highly visible in all earthquake zones.

They are seen in the market places and reportedly drive in SUVs,

indicating they have substantial income sources. Observers note

that these extremist organizations have a new claim to legitimacy,

given their successful relief efforts in the region.

• The Pakistan Government will need to ensure that violent extremist groups like the JUD are restricted from using their resources for terrorism-related activities, such as militant recruitment or incitement toward violent jihad in Kashmir and/

or Afghanistan.

One Pakistani commentator, citing the increased influence of the

jihadi organizations and unprecedented international access to

Pakistani Kashmir, noted that ‘‘winds of change were blowing in

the region.’’ It is still unclear whether President Musharraf and

13

Prime Minister Singh will be able to harness some of the recent

goodwill and capitalize on sympathetic feelings on both sides to

move the peace process forward. They will need to act boldly and

swiftly in this regard in order to counter some of the negative

trends that could develop in the region.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Earthquake Relief and Reconstruction

1. The relief and recovery effort in Pakistan will continue over

the next one to three years. The U.S. should maintain air support

to relief operations through at least March 2006, especially since

road travel will be increasingly limited due to severe weather conditions. USAID should begin as soon as possible efforts to reconstruct schools and health facilities in earthquake-affected areas in

the Northwest Frontier Province and Pakistani Kashmir.

2. Congress should continue to monitor and evaluate whether the

current package of $150 million in 2006 funding for humanitarian

relief and recovery is sufficient (as of this date, $80 million of those

funds had already been programmed).

3. U.S. earthquake assistance programs should focus on promoting democratic, self-sustaining social development as well as capacity building within civil society and community participation.

The U.S. also will need to pay particular attention to the involvement of women in the reconstruction process.

Democracy

1. Focus U.S. policies and assistance programs now on ensuring

free and fair elections that will produce a civilian government in

2007. This could include increasing public awareness of U.S. support for democracy and programming more funds toward democracy

and institution building.

2. The U.S. administration should consider transferring more

funds from the current annual $200 million in direct cash transfer

to the Pakistani Government toward USAID programs that promote democracy. These programs should focus on rooting out institutional corruption, improving the functioning of the judiciary and

parliament, and strengthening the electoral process.

3. Given concerns raised about USAID’s support to devolution in

Pakistan, Congress will need to monitor this program, for which

USAID has programmed $17.7 million over the period of 2002–

2007.

Pakistan-India Peace Process

1. Monitor activities of JUD and other militant groups that may

be trying to take advantage of the situation to whip up support for

militancy in Kashmir.

2. Encourage India and Pakistan to take another major confidence building step that involves participation by the local populations on both sides of the Line of Control that divides Kashmir

as a way to fortify the peace process.

14

Staff held discussions with the following individuals in Pakistan:

U.S. Embassy/State Department

Patricia Brandemaier, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission

Tim Wilder, Political Counselor

Divya Swamy, Political Officer

Andrew Quinn, Economic Counselor

Peter Kovach, Director, Public Affairs Office

Mary Virginia Kennedy, South Asia Bureau Earthquake Coordinator

USAID

USAID Mission Director, Lisa Chiles

USAID Mission Deputy Director, Patricia Rader

Julie Koenen-Grant, Senior Governance Advisor

Thomas Crehan, Education Officer

William Berger, DART Leader, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance

U.S. Military

Navy Rear Admiral Michael LeFever, Commander of the U.S. Disaster Assistance

Center in Islamabad

Pakistan Government

Syed Sail Abbas, Director (Americas), Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Non-Governmental Organizations

Charles MacCormack, President, Save the Children

Samina Khan, Executive Director, Sungi Development Foundation

Asma Jehangir, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Religion or Belief of the Commission on Human Rights

Sardar Amjad Yousef, President, Kashmir Institute of International Relations

Sheeba Afghani, Independent Development Consultant

Commentators/Academics

Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Professor of Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad

Talat Hussain, Special Correspondent with Newsweek

Naveed Ahmad, Staff Correspondent for the Pakistani Daily, ‘‘The News’’

Farhan Bokhari, Correspondent, ‘‘Financial Times’’

Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, President, Islamabad Policy Research Institute

Lt. Gen. Talat Masood (Retd.), Former Secretary Defense Production, Ministry of

Defense

Major Gen. Jamshed Ayaz Khan (Retd.), President Institute of Regional Studies

Khalid Rahman, Executive Director, Institute of Policy Studies

Politicians

Raja Pervez Ashraf, Secretary General of the Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians and Member of the National Assembly

Senator Iqbal Haider

Abida Hussain, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and former Ambassador to the

U.S.

Aitzaz Ahsan, Member of the National Assembly

Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz

Shah Ghulam Qadir, Secretary General, All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference

Other

Peter Wilson, British High Commission

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