The U.S. 

Climate Change Science Program

Vision for the Program 

and Highlights 

of the Scientific Strategic Plan

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research
James R. Mahoney

Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Director, Climate Change Science Program

Chair, Subcommittee on Global Change

Research

Ghassem Asrar,Vice Chair

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

Margaret S. Leinen,Vice Chair

National Science Foundation

James Andrews

Department of Defense

Mary Glackin

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Charles (Chip) Groat

U.S. Geological Survey

William Hohenstein

Department of Agriculture

Linda Lawson

Department of Transportation

Melinda Moore

Department of Health and Human Services

Patrick Neale

Smithsonian Institution

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

Aristides Patrinos

Department of Energy

Jacqueline Schafer

U.S. Agency for International Development

Michael Slimak

Environmental Protection Agency

Harlan Watson

Department of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

Kathie L. Olsen

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Co-Chair, Committee on Environment and

Natural Resources

David Conover

Department of Energy

Director, Climate Change Technology Program

Philip Cooney

Council on Environmental Quality

David Halpern

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Margaret R. McCalla

Office of the Federal Coordinator

for Meteorology

Erin Wuchte

Office of Management and Budget

This document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for

Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAA

pursuant to Section 515 (<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/iq.htm>). For purposes of compliance with Section 515,

this climate change science research program is an “interpreted product,” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines.

This document describes a strategic plan for developing scientific knowledge regarding climate change. It does not express

any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make any findings of fact that could serve as predicates

for regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on any

statements in this document or by the CCSP as a basis for regulatory action.
The U.S. 

Climate Change Science Program

Vision for the Program 

and Highlights 

of the Scientific Strategic Plan

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

July 2003
July 2003

Members of Congress:

Transmitted herewith is a copy of The U.S. Climate Change Science Program:Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic

Plan.The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to

enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the

Climate Change Science Program.

The Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program responds to the President’s direction that climate change research activities be

accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related

issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and

periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology

Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the original plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

The President established the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in 2002 as part of a new cabinet-level management structure

to oversee public investments in climate change science and technology.The new management structure also includes the Climate

Change Technology Program, which is responsible for accelerating climate-related technology research and development.The CCSP

incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program, established by the Global Change Research Act, and the Climate Change

Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001.The Program coordinates and integrates scientific research on global

change and climate change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

The CCSP, under the direction of the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, reports through the

Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology to the cabinet-level Committee on Climate Change Science

and Technology Integration.The chairmanship of these coordinating bodies rotates annually between the Departments of

Commerce and Energy, with the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy serving as the Executive Director of the

cabinet-level committee.

The CCSP strategic plan, though disseminated by the Department of Commerce, was developed through a multi-agency collaboration and has benefited substantially from external review of an earlier discussion draft by a special committee of the National

Academy of Sciences – National Research Council, as well as extensive public review by hundreds of scientists and stakeholders.

The strategic plan document contains a more detailed discussion of the goals and priorities for the program and how climate and

global change research activities will be integrated.

The CCSP strategic plan reflects a commitment to high-quality research that advances the frontiers of science and outlines an integrated approach for developing an improved understanding of climate change and its potential impacts.The program described in

the vision and strategic plan documents will meet the highest standards of credibility and transparency to support public evaluation

of climate change issues.

We thank the participating departments and agencies of the CCSP for their close cooperation and support and look forward to

working with Congress in the continued development of these important programs.

John H. Marburger III, Ph.D.

Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy

Executive Director, Committee 

on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

Donald L. Evans

Secretary of Commerce

Vice Chair, Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

Spencer Abraham

Secretary of Energy

Chair, Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration
Overview:The Need for the Best Available Science to 

Address Global Climate Change Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

The Administration’s Actions to Enhance Scientific 

Understanding of Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Development of the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

CCSP Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

CCSP Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Core Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

CCSP Organization and Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

About the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Appendix A:Table of Contents for the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . .30

Appendix B: Principal Areas of Focus for the CCSP Agencies . . .30

Appendix C: Key Gaps in the Science of Climate Change . . . . .33

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Climate shapes the environment, natural

resources, the economy, and other aspects of life

in all countries of the world. Natural and humaninduced changes in climate, as well as the options

suggested for adapting to or slowing changes, may

have substantial environmental, economic, and

societal consequences. Decisionmakers, resource

managers, and other interested citizens need reliable science-based information to make informed

judgments regarding policy and actions. Figure 1

illustrates some of the range and complexity of

the climate system elements that must be considered in addressing short- and long-term climate

change issues.

1

OVERVIEW

The Need for the Best Available Science to Address 

Global Climate Change Issues

“The Earth’s well-being is also an issue important to America. And it’s an issue that should be 

important to every nation in every part of our world.The issue of climate change respects no border. Its

effects cannot be reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology. Climate change, with its potential

to impact every corner of the world, is an issue that must be addressed by the world.”

– President Bush, June 11, 2001

Ice Sheet Glaciers

Ocean Circulation, Sea Level,

Biogeochemistry

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.

Aerosols

Clouds

ATMOSPHERIC

COMPOSITION

WATER

CYCLE

LAND-USE/ LAND-COVER CHANGE

HUMAN

CONTRIBUTIONS

AND RESPONSES

CARBON

ECOSYSTEMS CYCLE

Vegetation

Cities

Transportation

Sea-Ice

Volcanoes

Oceans

Rivers

Agriculture

Land Surface

AtmosphereIce Interaction

Evaporation

Precipitation

Terrestrial

Radiation

AtmosphereBiosphere

Interaction

Vegetation-Soil

 interaction

Industries

Solar

Radiation

Heat Exchange

CLIMATE

VARIABILITY

AND CHANGE

Figure 1: Major components needed to understand the climate system and climate change.
In May 2001, the Administration asked the

National Academy of Sciences – National Research

Council (NRC) to provide an updated evaluation

of key questions about climate change science.

Upon receipt of the NRC’s report in June 2001,

the President directed the relevant agencies and

departments of the federal government to build

on the extensive U.S. Global Change Research

Program (USGCRP) to accelerate research on the

most important uncertainties in climate science,

enhance climate observation systems, and improve

information available to decisionmakers.To accomplish this, the Administration took several steps:

• The President launched the Climate Change

Research Initiative (CCRI) in June 2001, with

an enhanced focus on the climate effects of

aerosols (tiny particles) in the atmosphere, the

carbon cycle in the Earth system, climate modeling, observations, and development of scientific information to support decisionmaking.

• The President created a new, cabinet-level

organization in February 2002, to improve the

government-wide management of climate science and climate-related technology development.Two collaborative interagency programs

were launched in response to the President’s

direction: the Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP) and the Climate Change Technology

Program (CCTP).

• In July 2002, a year-long process to prepare a

10-year strategic plan for the CCSP was initiated.This planning process was designed to

ensure a comprehensive examination of

research and observation needs, transparent

review by all the international scientific and

stakeholder communities, and establishment of

defined goals for the research.This document,

together with the companion CCSP scientific

strategic plan, represents the culmination of the

planning and public review process.

• The United States has also launched an international effort to design and implement a comprehensive, multilaterally sponsored Earth

observing system, which will provide critical

information to improve climate science and

modeling.This system will build directly upon

the major advances in observations and data

management already achieved by the United

States and other nations. A ministerial meeting

hosted by the U.S. government in Washington

in July 2003 is the first step in a planned 10-

year effort to greatly improve the ability to

“take the temperature of the Earth.”

Vision and Goals

Research and observations can play unique roles in

helping society to deal with key climate change

issues.This gives rise to the guiding vision of the

U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

A nation and the global

community empowered

with the science-based

knowledge to manage 

the risks and opportunities

of change in the climate and

related environmental 

systems.

GUIDING VISION

FOR THE CCSP

2
Five principal goals have been adopted to guide

the CCSP.

CCSP GOAL 1

Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its natural

variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

CCSP GOAL 2

Improve quantification of the forces bringing

about changes in the Earth’s climate and 

related systems.

CCSP GOAL 3

Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the

Earth’s climate and related systems may change in

the future.

CCSP GOAL 4

Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human

systems to climate and related global changes.

CCSP GOAL 5

Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities

related to climate variability and change.

By developing information with the aim of achieving these goals, the program will ensure that it

addresses the most important climate-related

issues. For each of the goals, the CCSP will prepare science-based information resources that support policy discussions and decisionmaking.

CCSP Priorities

While the CCSP Strategic Plan includes a decadelong strategy, it also establishes priorities for the

near term consistent with the President’s Climate

Change Research Initiative.The program prioritizes three broad sets of scientific uncertainties:

atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols;

climate feedbacks and sensitivity, initially focusing

on polar feedbacks; and carbon sources and sinks,

focusing particularly on North America.

The CCSP will also focus on climate observing

systems, including efforts to document historical

records, improve observations for use in climate

models, enhance ecological observing systems,

and improve data and information system 

architectures.

Development of state-of-the-art climate modeling

that will improve understanding of the causes and

impacts of climate change is also a CCSP priority.

These models will be key assets in helping policymakers, planners, and resource managers address

climate change issues.

CCSP Principal Products

The CCSP plan calls for the creation of a series of

more than 20 synthesis and assessment reports

during the next 4 years.These reports respond to

the CCSP highest priority research, observation,

and decision support needs.

In addition to the scheduled integrated reports,

the CCSP agencies will continue to sponsor a

large number of research projects and observation

programs each year.The products of these activities – a wide array of peer-reviewed scientific

publications and major observation records – are a

major continuing legacy of the CCSP.

3
Development of the 

Strategic Plan

This Vision Document provides an overview of the

CCSP’s long-term Strategic Plan to guide the

research effort.The Vision Document focuses primarily on the goals, products, and approaches of

the CCSP.The Strategic Plan, spanning more than

300-pages, will guide the coordinated efforts of

the 13 agencies participating in the CCSP.The

Strategic Plan provides more detailed information

on the scientific questions and objectives

addressed by the program, as well as additional

information on the current state of knowledge.

The table of contents of the Strategic Plan is

reproduced as Appendix A.

The Strategic Plan responds to the President’s

direction that climate change research activities be

accelerated to provide the best possible scientific

information needed for climate-related decisions.

The plan reflects a commitment to high-quality

science, which requires openness to review and

critique by the wider scientific and stakeholder

communities.The process by which the plan was

drafted incorporates the transparency essential for

scientific credibility.The program received extensive comments and suggestions during its Climate

Science Workshop in December 2002 attended by

more than 1,300 scientists and other participants,

including individuals from 47 states and 36

nations. In the weeks following the workshop, the

CCSP also received 270 sets of written public

comments, involving nearly 900 pages of text. In

addition, the CCSP requested and received a

detailed evaluation (released in February 2003)

from a special committee of the National Research

Council.The NRC will provide a second public

report in late 2003, expressing the committee’s

conclusions and recommendations on the content,

objectivity, quality, and comprehensiveness of the

updated Strategic Plan, on the open process used

to produce it, and on the proposed process for

developing subsequent findings to be reported by

the CCSP.

4
Scientific Review Requested from the

National Academy of Sciences

In May 2001, the Administration asked the

National Academy of Sciences’ National Research

Council to provide an updated evaluation of key

questions about climate change science, with reference to the recently completed Third Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC), and with reference to ongoing

climate change research in the United States and

other nations. The NRC committee report,

Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key

Questions,was issued in June 2001.The summary

of the report stated:

5

The Administration’s Actions to Enhance Scientific

Understanding of Global Climate Change

“My Cabinet-level working group has met regularly for the last 10 weeks to review the most recent,

most accurate, and most comprehensive science.They have heard from scientists offering a wide spectrum

of views.They have reviewed the facts, and they have listened to many theories and suppositions.The

working group asked the highly respected National Academy of Sciences to provide us the most up-todate information about what is known and about what is not known on the science of climate change.”

–President Bush, June 11, 2001 

“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise.Temperatures are, in

fact, rising.The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human

activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection

of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to

continue through the 21st century...Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases

and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward)...

“Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate will

require addressing a number of fundamental scientific questions relating to the buildup of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate system...In addition, the

research enterprise dealing with environmental change and the interactions of human society

with the environment must be enhanced...An effective strategy for advancing the understanding

of climate change also will require (1) a global observing system in support of long-term climate monitoring and prediction, (2) concentration on large-scale modeling through increased,

dedicated supercomputing and human resources, and (3) efforts to ensure that climate research

is supported and managed to ensure innovation, effectiveness, and efficiency.”
Upon receipt of the NRC report in June 2001,

the President launched the U.S. Climate Change

Research Initiative “...to study areas of uncertainty and identify priority areas where investments

can make a difference.”The CCRI represents a

focusing of resources and attention on those elements of the USGCRP that can best support

improved public debate and decisionmaking in the

near term.The goal of the CCRI is to improve

integration of scientific knowledge (including

measures of uncertainty) into policy and management decisions and evaluation of management

strategies and choices—within the next 5 years.

To meet this goal, and consistent with the

National Research Council reports, the CCRI

aims to:

1. Reduce scientific uncertainty in three

key areas of climate science:

Develop reliable representations of the

climatic forcing resulting from atmospheric aerosols. Aerosols and tropospheric

ozone play unique, but poorly quantified, roles

in the atmospheric radiation budget. Proposed

activities include field campaigns (including aircraft missions), in situ monitoring stations,

improved modeling, and satellite data algorithm

development.

Improve our understanding of the global

carbon cycle (sources and sinks). CCRI

funds will be targeted for activities to carry out

the integrated North American Carbon Program

(NACP), a key element of the U.S. Carbon

Cycle Science Plan.This program will improve

monitoring techniques, reconcile approaches for

quantifying carbon storage, and elucidate key

processes and land management practices regulating carbon fluxes between the atmosphere

and the land and ocean.

Increase our knowledge of climate feedback processes. Poor understanding of “climate feedbacks”—key interactions among two

or more components of the climate system,

such as clouds, water vapor, ocean circulation,

or sea ice—are responsible for large uncertainties in our ability to reliably predict climate variability and change. CCRI will prioritize activities to support increased understanding of feedback processes.

2. Enhance and expand observations of

the Earth system. CCRI efforts will contribute

6

“As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles. Our approach must be 

consistent with the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Our

actions should be measured as we learn more from science and build on it...We will act, learn, and act

again, adjusting our approaches as science advances and technology evolves. Our administration will be 

creative.”

–President Bush, June 11, 2001

The Climate Change Research Initiative Launched in June 2001

The key areas addressed in the June 2001 NRC

report include climate observations; the influence

of aerosols in the atmosphere; carbon sources and

sinks in the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems;

climate modeling; scenarios of human-induced climate impacts; and the integration of scientific

knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective

decision support systems.These considerations

have guided the development of the focused climate research and technology initiatives

announced by the President that same month.
7

to and benefit from the design and operational

implementation over the next 10 years of a new

international, integrated, sustained, and comprehensive global Earth observation system to minimize

data gaps and maximize the utility of existing

observing networks.

3. Increase our climate modeling capacity.

CCRI will support continued development and

refinement of computational climate models.

Priority activities will focus on improving model

physics (particularly with respect to clouds and

aerosols), increasing resolution of climate model

simulations, improving methods to assimilate observations into model analyses and predictions, and

exploring limits to predictability of climate variability and change. CCRI will also support development

of climate modeling to provide routine model products for policy and management decision support.

The President also launched the parallel Climate

Change Technology Program in June 2001, “...to

strengthen research at universities and national labs,

to enhance partnerships in applied research, to

develop improved technology for measuring and

monitoring gross and net greenhouse gas emissions,

and to fund demonstration projects for cutting-edge

technologies.”Technological breakthroughs will be

needed to address the long-term challenge of global

climate change.The CCSP and the CCTP are closely

collaborating to ensure that: (a) science drives the

definition of technology needs; and (b) science is

used to evaluate the potential consequences of proposed technology innovations.

Integration of the Short-Term CCRI and the

Long-Term USGCRP to Form The Climate

Change Science Program 

The Administration’s Climate Change Research

Initiative is accelerating key areas of long-term

research supported by the U.S. Global Change

Research Program.The USGCRP was established by

the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to address

natural and human-induced changes in the Earth’s

global environmental system; to monitor, understand, and predict global change; and to provide a

sound scientific basis for national and international

decisionmaking.To date, more than $20 billion of

research funding has supported the USGCRP.

The near-term focus of the CCRI on key climate

change uncertainties is being balanced with the

breadth of the long-term USGCRP, creating the

combined CCSP program that accelerates research

on key science uncertainties while supporting

long-term advances in understanding the physical,

biological, and chemical processes that influence

the Earth system.The budgets of the CCRI and

USGCRP program elements are developed and

maintained separately within the Climate Change

Science Program, but the program management

structure is identical for both the CCRI and

USGCRP elements.This combined management

focus is consistent with the recommendations of

the 1999 report of the National Research Council,

Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for

the Next Decade.The Pathways report formulated a

framework of research questions that has significantly influenced the development of the CCSP

Strategic Plan.

The CCSP must also integrate the products of

capabilities that make essential contributions to

global change research, but were outside the original USGCRP framework.These include the operational environmental satellite system, various in

situ ocean and atmospheric observing systems, and

associated data centers.This will facilitate the

transition of research observations into operational systems and the use of research products by

mission agencies.

New Cabinet-Level Management Structure

Created in February 2002 to Oversee the

Climate Change Science Program and the

Climate Change Technology Program 

In February 2002, the President created a new

Cabinet-level management structure, the

Committee on Climate Change Science and

Technology Integration, to oversee the more than

$3 billion annual investment in the combined 

federal climate change research and technology

development programs.The new management

structure places accountability and leadership for
8

the science and technology programs in the relevant cabinet departments (see Figure 2). The relevant research continues to be coordinated

through the National Science and Technology

Council in accordance with the Global Change

Research Act of 1990.

Under the new management structure, the CCSP

integrates research on global climate change sponsored by the Departments of Agriculture,

Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health and Human

Services, the Interior, State, and Transportation,

together with the Environmental Protection

Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration, the National Science Foundation,

the Agency for International Development, and

the Smithsonian Institution.The Office of Science

and Technology Policy, the Council on

Environmental Quality, the National Economic

Council, and the Office of Management and

Budget also participate.The principal areas of

global change research for the CCSP agencies are

summarized in Appendix B.

*Chair and Vice Chair of Committee and Working Group rotate annually.

DOS, DOE, USAID,

and Other Agencies

International Activities

(including Task Force

on International Energy Cooperation)

Climate Change Policy and Program Review

by NSC, DPC, NEC

Office of the President

Chair: Secretary of Energy* Vice Chair: Secretary of Commerce*

Executive Director: OSTP Director

Secretary of State

Secretary of Agriculture

EPA Administrator

OMB Director

NEC Director

NASA Administrator

Secretary of the Interior

Secretary of HHS

Secretary of Transportation

Secretary of Defense

CEQ Chairman

NSF Director

Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration

Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Commerce*

Vice Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Energy*

Executive Secretary: OSTP Associate Director for Science

Members DS/US Level:

CEQ, DOD, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA,

HHS, NASA, NEC, NSF, OMB, USDA

Interagency Working Group on

Climate Change Science and Technology

Director: Assistant Secretary of Commerce

for Oceans and Atmosphere

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, Smithsonian, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Science Program

Director: Senior-Level Appointee,

U.S. Department of Energy

Members:

DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Technology Program

Figure 2: Climate science and technology management structure.
9

including the scientific community, stakeholders,

non-governmental organizations, interested members of the public, and the media.

Written comments on the Discussion Draft Strategic

Plan were submitted during a public review period.When collated, these comments amounted to

nearly 900 pages of input from hundreds of scientists, representatives of interest groups, and interested members of the lay public.

In addition, a special committee of the National

Academy of Sciences’ National Research Council

reviewed the plan at the request of the CCSP.The

special 17-member review committee included

experts in the physical, biological, social, and economic sciences. In February 2003, this committee

reported its recommendations, which have provided invaluable assistance in the revision of the draft

plan.The NRC committee will provide a second

public report in late 2003, expressing the committee’s conclusions and recommendations on the

content, objectivity, quality, and comprehensiveness of the updated Strategic Plan, on the open

process used to produce it, and on the proposed

process for developing subsequent findings to be

reported by the CCSP.

The CCSP Strategic Plan is being published after

consideration of all of the workshop discussions,

the full range of written public review comments

received by January 2003, and the NRC review of

the discussion draft plan, as well as an extensive

internal U.S. Government review process.

The CCSP Strategic Plan responds to the

President’s direction that climate change research

activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information needed for climaterelated decisions.The plan reflects a commitment

to high-quality science, which requires openness

to review and critique by the wider scientific and

stakeholder communities.The process by which

the Plan was drafted incorporates the transparency essential for scientific credibility.

The Administration released the CCSP Discussion

Draft Strategic Plan for public review in November

2002.The discussion draft built upon the significant investments already made in climate change

science, and was guided by the priority information needs identified by scientists and stakeholders

(i.e., individuals or groups whose interests—

financial, cultural, value-based, or other—are

affected by climate variability, climate change, or

options for adapting to or mitigating these phenomena), both nationally and internationally. It

outlined a comprehensive, collaborative approach

for developing a more accurate understanding of

climate change and its potential impacts.

External comments played an important role in

revising the initial draft of the plan. A Climate

Change Science Program Workshop held in December

2002 in Washington, DC, was attended by 1,300

scientists and other participants, including individuals from 47 states and 36 nations.The workshop

was designed to facilitate extensive discussion and

comments on the draft plan from all interested

domestic and international groups and individuals,

Development of the CCSP Strategic Plan

“A fully updated strategic plan for U.S. global change research is under development.This will be the

first comprehensive update to the strategic plan for the USGCRP (and CCRI) since the original plan

was adopted.”

–Secretary of Commerce Donald L. Evans and Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham

Letter to the President, September 9, 2002
10

The plan will guide the conduct of research activities sponsored or conducted by the U.S.

Government. It will be modified as warranted by

the emergence of key findings and important new

public questions.

After the release of the Strategic Plan, the CCSP

will serve in a “credible fact finder” capacity—

providing a source of reliable and useful information to support decisions on global climate change

issues. It will focus on developing synthesis and

assessment reports on climate science findings.

Future reports will address the principal foci of

the Strategic Plan, which are (a) reducing key scientific uncertainties, (b) designing and implementing a comprehensive global climate and

ecosystem monitoring and data management system, and (c) providing information (from a range

of scenarios and response options) that supports

public evaluation of climate change response

options.
11

The United States is a world leader in climate

change research, investing more than $20 billion

on such research in the past 12 years. Even with

substantial budgets, the potential scope of climate

change research, observations, and scientific synthesis is so large that the CCSP must clearly identify the highest priority activities for support.This

section outlines the high-priority CCSP topics and

the basis for their designation.The overall criteria

used to guide individual program and project support decisions are also described.

Information Sources for Determining

High-Priority Activities

In developing priorities, the CCSP has considered

information from many sources, including:

• The analysis and reporting requirements

imposed by the Global Change Research Act of

1990 (Public Law 101–606)

• The focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties through the Climate Change Research

Initiative of June 2001

• The recommendations in various reports of the

National Research Council, including the following key NRC reports:

- Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key

Questions, requested by the Administration

and published in June 2001

- Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways

for the Next Decade, a seminal report published in 1999

- Planning Climate and Global Change Research,

requested by the Administration as part of

the CCSP Strategic Plan development and

published in February 2003

• Climate change assessment reports by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• The annual program plans of the 13 collaborating CCSP agencies and departments, as documented in the annual series of Our Changing

Planet reports

• The Discussion Draft Strategic Plan published by

the CCSP in November 2002

• The deliberations at the Climate Change Science

Workshop in December 2002, which was sponsored by the CCSP and attended by 1,300 climate specialists 

• The written comments submitted after the

December 2002 CCSP workshop.

Priorities Related to Reducing Key

Uncertainties as Recommended by the

NRC

The June 2001 NRC report requested by the

Administration provides an extensive summary of

key climate uncertainties to be addressed.The

President’s June 2001 CCRI initiative took special

note of these NRC recommendations, and directed that additional investments be directed to

address these important knowledge gaps. More

detailed information from the NRC report

appears in Appendix C, and key research priorities

identified by the NRC follow:

“Predictions of global climate change will

require major advances in understanding and

modeling of (1) the factors that determine

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse

gases and aerosols, and (2) the so-called “feedbacks” that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in greenhouse gases. Specifically, this will involve

reducing uncertainty regarding: (a) future

usage of fossil fuels, (b) future emissions of

methane, (c) the fraction of the future fossil

fuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphere

and provide radiative forcing versus exchange

with the oceans or net exchange with the land

biosphere, (d) the feedbacks in the climate system that determine both the magnitude of the

change and the rate of energy uptake by the

oceans, which together determine the 

CCSP Priorities
12

The atmosphere is a protective envelope for life on Earth, providing key

ingredients necessary to sustain life

and shielding the planet from harmful

radiation. It can transport materials

around the globe in a matter of weeks

yet can hold chemicals for centuries

or longer.The concentrations of the

key gases that might affect climate

are changing, as are the processes

that affect the composition of the

atmosphere.

CCSP-supported research focuses on

how human activities and natural

processes alter the composition of the

atmosphere and its energy balance and

how related changes could influence

climate, ozone, ultraviolet radiation,

pollutant exposure, ecosystems, and

human health. Specific objectives

address the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer; the properties and

distributions of greenhouse gases and

aerosols; long-range transport of

chemicals and aerosols and implications for regional air quality; and integrated assessments of the effects of

these changes. Issues involving interactions between atmospheric composition and climate are of particular

interest.

Benefits from this research include:

• Improved description of the global

distributions of aerosols and their

radiative properties

• Knowledge of the importance of

other greenhouse gases besides carbon dioxide in the climate system

• Understanding the recovery of

the ozone layer (resulting from

international compliance with

the Montreal Protocol on

Substances that Deplete the

Ozone Layer) and its relationship with the climate system

Saharan Dust Off West Africa. The plume extends more than 1,000 miles (1,600

km). Scientists are trying to fully understand how such tiny airborne particles — emitted worldwide from many different sources — affect climate.

• Strengthened processes within

the national and international

scientific communities to provide for integrated evaluation of

impacts from air pollution and

changes in climate on ecosystems and human health.

Atmospheric

Composition

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

This is one of seven research elements of the CCSP.These seven program elements focus on key

aspects of the Earth system and provide a mechanism for interagency coordination of scientific

activities.The research elements are introduced in a series of boxes distributed throughout the text.
13

magnitude and time history of the temperature

increases for a given radiative forcing, (e) the

details of the regional and local climate change

consequent to an overall level of global climate

change, (f) the nature and causes of the natural

variability of climate and its interactions with

forced changes, and (g) the direct and indirect

effects of the changing distributions of aerosol.

Because the total change in radiative forcing

from other greenhouse gases over the last century has been nearly as large as that of carbon

dioxide, their future evolution also must be

addressed. At the heart of this is basic research,

which allows for creative discoveries about

those elements of the climate system that have

not yet been identified, or studied.

“Knowledge of the climate system and projections about the future climate are derived from

fundamental physics and chemistry through

models and observations of the atmosphere and

the climate system. Climate models are built

using the best scientific knowledge of the

processes that operate within the climate system, which in turn are based on observations of

these systems. A major limitation of these

model forecasts for use around the world is the

paucity of data available to evaluate the ability

of coupled models to simulate important

aspects of past climate. In addition, the observing system available today is a composite of

observations that neither provides the information nor the continuity in the data needed to

support measurements of climate variables.

Therefore, above all, it is essential to ensure the

existence of a long-term observing system that

provides a more definitive observational foundation to evaluate decadal- to century-scale

variability and change.This observing system

must include observations of key state variables

such as temperature, precipitation, humidity,

pressure, clouds, sea ice and snow cover, sea

level, sea-surface temperature, carbon fluxes,

and soil moisture. Additionally, more comprehensive regional measurements of greenhouse

gases would provide critical information about

their local and regional source strengths.

“Climate observations and modeling are

becoming increasingly important for a wide

segment of society including water resource

managers, public health officials, agribusinesses, energy providers, forest managers, insurance companies, and city planners. In order to

address the consequences of climate change and

better serve the nation’s decisionmakers, the

research enterprise dealing with environmental

change and environment-society interactions

must be enhanced.This includes support of (a)

interdisciplinary research that couples physical,

chemical, biological, and human systems, (b)

improved capability [to] integrate scientific

knowledge, including its uncertainty, into

effective decision support systems, and (c) an

ability to conduct research at the regional or

sectoral level that promotes analysis of the

response of human and natural systems to multiple stresses.”

CCSP Responses to the Identified Priority

Research Needs 

The research priorities of the CCSP are reviewed

on an annual cycle through the budget process and

reflect priority needs and scientific opportunities.

While the CCSP Strategic Plan includes a decadelong strategy, it also establishes priorities for the

near term consistent with the CCRI.These priorities have been established in response to information from the above sources.These priorities are

reflected in a focusing of resources and enhanced

interagency coordination of ongoing and planned

research that can best address major gaps in

understanding of climate change.The CCSP

Strategic Plan provides additional information on

these priorities.

For the near term, the CCSP will emphasize

research on three sets of scientific uncertainties

highlighted by the NRC: (1) atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols; (2) climate feedbacks

and sensitivity, initially focusing on polar feedbacks; and (3) carbon sources and sinks, focusing

particularly on North America.
Climate and climate variability

influence social and natural

environments throughout the

world. Climate fluctuations on

various time scales affect the

success of agriculture, the abundance and distribution of water,

and the demand for energy.

Human-induced changes in climate may have substantial environmental, economic, and societal consequences.

CCSP-supported research on

climate variability and change

focuses on how climate elements such as temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and

storminess are affected by

changes in the Earth that result

from natural processes and

potentially human activities.

Specific objectives include:

improved predictions of seasonal to decadal climate variations

(e.g., the El Niño-Southern

Oscillation); improved detection, attribution, and projections of longer term changes in

climate; the potential for

changes in extreme events; the

possibility of abrupt climate

change; and efficient and effective methods of disseminating

accurate and useful scientific

information about climate needed for decisions.

• Improved forecasts of El Niño

events

• Better estimates of future

changes in extreme events and

of risks of abrupt changes

• Improved communication and

increased use of scientific

information on climate variability and change.

In Situ Measurements. This surface buoy with meteorological instrumentation is being

deployed in the Arabian Sea to help researchers study surface forcings. Source: Robert

A. Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Climate Variability and Change

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

Benefits from this research

include:

• Improved ability to distinguish natural climatic variations from human contributions to climate change,

resulting in more credible

answers to “If..., then...”

policy-related questions

14
The CCSP will also focus on climate observing

systems including efforts to: (a) document historical records; (b) improve observations for model

development and applications; (c) enhance biological and ecological observing systems; and (d)

improve data archiving and information system

architectures.These activities will involve substantial collaboration with the international climate

science community and with several ongoing

international programs.The CCSP observation

and data management activities will support a

major international initiative to develop a comprehensive, integrated Earth observing system.This

10-year international initiative is being launched at

an Earth Observation Summit hosted by the

United States in July 2003 in Washington, DC.

Development of state-of-the-art climate modeling

that will improve understanding of the causes and

impacts of climate change is also a CCSP priority.

Based on recommendations in several NRC

reports on U.S. climate modeling and USGCRP

evaluations, the CCSP agencies are prioritizing

new activities to strengthen U.S. national climate

modeling infrastructure.

Finally, the CCSP plan calls for the creation of a

series of more than 20 synthesis and assessment

reports during the next 4 years.These reports

represent principal responses to the top-priority

research, observation, and decision support needs

described above.The following section describes

these reports in the context of the five overarching goals for CCSP.

In addition to the planned synthesis and assessment reports, the CCSP collaborating agencies

will continue to sponsor a large number of

research projects each year. Prioritization principles also are applied to the entire group of projects in each of the CCSP study areas.

15

CCSP Criteria for Prioritizing Research,

Observations, and Scientific Synthesis

Projects

To ensure that the program evolves in response to

identified needs, the CCSP has developed the following criteria to assist in reviewing priorities for

work elements selected for support:

Scientific or technical quality

• The proposed work must be scientifically rigorous as determined by peer review.

• Implementation plans will include periodic

review by external advisory groups (both

researchers and users).

Relevance to reducing scientific uncertainties and improving decision support

tools in priority areas 

• Programs must substantially address one or

more of the CCSP goals.

• Programs must respond to needs for scientific

information and enhance informed discussion

by all relevant stakeholders.

Track record of consistently good past

performance and identified metrics for

evaluating future progress

• Programs addressing priorities with good track

records of past performance will be favored for

continued investment to the extent that time

tables and metrics for evaluating future

progress are provided.

• Proposed programs that identify clear milestones for periodic assessment and documentation of progress will be favorably considered

for new investment.

Cost and value

• Research should address CCSP goals in a costeffective way.

• Research should be coordinated with and leverage other national and international efforts.

• Programs that provide value-added products to

improve decision support resources will be

favored.
Water is crucial to life on

Earth.Water changes from

solid to liquid to gas through a

natural cycle that also transports and converts energy.

Changes in water vapor,

clouds, high-latitude ice and

snow conditions, and land surfaces are important climate

feedbacks. Humans depend on

predictions of precipitation,

evaporation, flow, storage, and

extremes (such as floods and

droughts) to plan their access

to and use of water.

CCSP-supported research on

the global water cycle focuses

on how natural processes and

human activities influence the

distribution and quality of

water, on whether changes in

the water cycle are predictable, and on how variability

and change in the water cycle

affect society. Specific areas

include: identifying fluctuations of the water cycle and

determining the causes of these

changes; predicting precipitation and evaporation on time

scales of months to years and

longer; and modeling various

physical, biological, and

socioeconomic processes to

facilitate efficient water

resources management.

Benefits from these research

efforts include:

• Measurably improved forecasts

of precipitation and other

water cycle variables for water

managers

• Enhanced ability to incorporate cloud feedbacks and precipitation processes in climate

models

• Long-term global and regional

data sets of critical watercycle variables from satellite

and surface-based observations, helping to monitor

climate trends and promptly

detect climate change

• Increases in the efficiency of

water use through better

water models for policy and

planning.

The Aqua Satellite. Launched into space in May 2002, NASA’s Earth Observing System

(EOS) satellite Aqua generates data on the water cycle and other aspects of the environment. Source: NASA.

Global Water Cycle

16

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT
17

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—

steps for understanding and reconciling 

differences.

Inconsistencies in the temperature profiles of different data sets

reduce confidence in understanding of how and why climate has

changed.

within 2 years

Past climate variability and change in the

Arctic and at high latitudes. 

High latitudes are especially sensitive and may provide early indications of climate change; new paleoclimate data will provide longterm context for recent observed temperature increases.

within 2 years

Reanalyses of historical climate data for key

atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.

Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to

increasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climate

has changed and why it may change in the future.

2-4 years

The CCSP has adopted five overarching scientific

goals. By developing information responsive to these

goals, the program will ensure that it addresses the

most important climate-related issues. For each of the

goals, the CCSP will prepare information resources

that support climate-related discussions and decisions.

These will include scientific synthesis and assessment

analyses that support evaluation of important policy

issues. A table for each goal identifies the initial topics

to be addressed by these products.

CCSP Goals

Climate conditions change

significantly over the span of seasons, years, decades,

and even longer time scales. CCSP research will

improve useful understanding of natural climate cycles

on timescales from seasons to centuries. Research will

include improving forecasts of the El Niño-Southern

Oscillation (ENSO)—a large-scale climate cycle (of

approximately 2-year duration) with implications for

resource management—as well as other natural climate cycles.The program also will expand observations, monitoring, and data/information system capabilities and increase confidence in our understanding of

how and why climate is changing. Fostering the transition of research observations to long-term operational

measurements and activities will be important.

Specific research foci addressing this goal are:

• Better understand the natural long-term cycles in

climate (e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability, North

Atlantic Oscillation) 

• Improve and harness the capability to forecast El

Niño-La Niña events and other seasonal to 

interannual cycles of variability

• Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through

improved observations, analyses, and modeling, and

determine whether any changes in their frequency or

intensity lie outside the range of natural variability 

• Increase confidence in the understanding of how and

why climate has changed 

• Expand observations and data/information system

capabilities.

Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present 

climate and environment, including its 

natural variability, and improve understanding of 

the causes of observed variability and change.

GOAL 1
18

Combustion of fossil fuels,

changes in land cover and

land use, and industrial activities produce greenhouse gases, aerosols, and aerosol

precursors that alter the composition of the atmosphere and important physical and biological properties

of the Earth’s surface.These changes have several

important climate effects, some of which can be quantified only poorly at present.

Research conducted through the CCSP will reduce

uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse

gases and aerosols. It also will reduce the uncertainty

regarding climate interactions with ozone in the upper

and lower layers of the atmosphere, movement of

chemicals and particles in the atmosphere, and 

regional-scale air quality. Research will improve quantification of the interactions among the carbon cycle,

other biological and ecological processes, and land

cover and land use to better project atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and support improved

decisionmaking.The program also will improve capabilities for developing and analyzing emissions scenarios, in cooperation with the Climate Change

Technology Program.

Five research foci support this goal:

• Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of

greenhouse gases, emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects

• Monitor recovery of the ozone layer and improve

understanding of the interactions among climate

change, ozone depletion, and other atmospheric

processes

• Increase knowledge of the interactions among pollutant emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, climate change, and air quality management

• Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover

and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping to quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide,

methane, and other greenhouse gases, thereby

improving the evaluation of carbon sequestration

strategies and alternative response options

• Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions

and related scenarios for conducting “If..., then...”

analyses in cooperation with the CCTP.

Improve quantification of the forces bringing about

changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems. 

GOAL 2

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions

and concentrations, in collaboration with the

CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application.

Sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for

comparative analysis of how climate may change in the future,

as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options. 

within 2 years

North American carbon budget and implications for

the global carbon cycle.

The buildup of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and the fraction of carbon being taken up by North America’s ecosystems and

coastal oceans are key factors in estimating future climate change.

within 2 years

Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.

There is a high level of uncertainty about how climate may be

affected by different types of aerosols, both warming and cooling,

and thus how climate change might be affected by their control.

2-4 years

Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances,

ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet

radiation exposure and climate change.

This information is key to ensuring that international agreements to

phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having

the expected outcome (recovery of the protective ozone layer). 

2-4 years
While much is known about

the mechanisms that affect

the response of the climate

system to changes in natural and human influences,

significant uncertainty exists as to how much climate

will change overall and how it will change in specific

regions.

A primary CCSP objective is the development of the

information and scientific capacity needed to sharpen

qualitative and quantitative understanding through

interconnected observations, data assimilation, and

modeling activities. Comprehensive climate system

models integrate scientific understanding of the 

many components of the climate system and, thus, are

the principal tools available for making quantitative

projections.

CCSP-supported research will address not only basic

climate system properties and interactions, but also a

number of “feedbacks,” or secondary changes that can

either reinforce or dampen the initial effects of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions or changes in land use

and land cover.The program also will address the

potential for changes in the frequency and intensity of

extreme events, and will seek to reduce uncertainty

regarding potential rapid or discontinuous changes in

19

climate.The CCSP will build on existing U.S.

strengths in climate research and modeling and will

help develop “high-end” models that couple the climate

with other important physical and biological components of the Earth system.

Research from the program will be integrated to focus

on each of these areas:

• Improve characterization of the circulation of the

atmosphere and oceans and their interactions

through fluxes of energy and materials

• Improve understanding of key “feedbacks”

including changes in the amount and distribution 

of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth’s 

reflectivity, cloud properties, and biological and

ecological systems

• Increase understanding of the conditions that could

give rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean

circulation owing to changes in temperature and

salinity gradients

• Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of

climate processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty about climate sensitivity

(i.e., response to radiative forcing), projected climate changes, and other related conditions 

• Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate models.

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

Clarifying the uses and limitations of climate models at different spatial and temporal scales will contribute to appropriate

application of these results.

within 2 years

Climate projections for research and assessment

based on emissions scenarios developed through the

CCTP.

Production of these projections will help develop modeling

capacity and will provide important inputs to comparative

analysis of response options. 

2-4 years

Climate extremes including documentation of current

extremes. Prospects for improving projections.

Extreme events have important implications for natural

resources, property, infrastructure, and public safety. 2-4 years

Risks of abrupt changes in global climate.

Abrupt changes have occurred in the past and thus it is important to evaluate what we know about the potential for abrupt

change in the future. 

2-4 years

Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s

climate and related systems may change in the future.

GOAL 3
20

Seasonal to interannual variability in climate has been

connected to impacts on almost every aspect of human

life. Long time scale natural climate cycles and humaninduced changes in climate may have additional effects.

Improving the ability to assess potential implications of

variations and future changes in climate and environmental conditions could enable governments, businesses, and communities to reduce potential negative

impacts and to take advantage of opportunities by

adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans.

CCSP research will examine the potential for multiple

interacting effects (e.g., the carbon dioxide “fertilization effect,” deposition of nitrogen and other nutrients,

landscape changes that affect water resources and habitats, changes in frequency of fires or pests) in order to

improve knowledge of sensitivity and adaptability to

climate variability and change. CCSP research also will

improve methods to advance our understanding of

the potential effects of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and to develop

methods for comparing the potential impacts across

different sectors.

Research focus areas are:

• Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems

and economic sectors to global climate variability

and change

• Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating

adaptation options, in cooperation with missionoriented agencies and other resource managers 

• Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems (including managed ecosystems such as croplands) and human infrastructure interact over long

periods of time.

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. Evaluation of how well equipped society is to cope with potential sea

level rise can help reduce vulnerability. within 2 years

State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that

could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in

some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.

This approach seeks to determine how much climate change natural

environments and resources can withstand before being adversely

affected. 

2-4 years

Relationship between observed ecosystem

changes and climate change.

Earlier blossoming times, longer growing seasons, and other

changes are being observed, and this report will explore what is

known about why these events are happening.

2-4 years

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

Understanding of adaptation options can support improved resource

management—whether change results from natural or human causes—and thus helps realize opportunities or reduce negative impacts.

2-4 years

Scenario-based analysis of the climatological,

environmental, resource, technological, and economic implications of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Knowing how well we can differentiate the impacts of different

greenhouse gas concentrations is important in determining the

range of appropriate response policies.

2-4 years

State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability.

This product will help improve application of evolving ENSO forecasts by synthesizing information on impacts, both positive and negative, of variability.

2-4 years

Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential

impacts, and response options.

Safety and efficiency of transportation infrastructure—much of which

has a long lifetime—may be increased through planning that takes

account of sensitivities to climate variability and change.

2-4 years

Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different

natural and managed ecosystems and human systems

to climate and related global changes.

GOAL 4
Over the last decade, the scientific and technical community has developed a variety of products to support

management of risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.These products have

evoked much commentary, both positive and negative.

The CCSP will encourage evaluation and learning from

these experiences in order to structure decision support processes and products that use scientific knowledge to the best effect, while respecting and disclosing

the limits of this knowledge.

The CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations,

databases, data and model products, scenarios, visualization products, scientific syntheses, and assessments)

to support policies, planning, and adaptive management. In coordination with the CCTP, the CCSP also

will develop and apply frameworks and methods to

integrate the complex array of research on human

activities, technology, emissions, land-use and landcover change, nutrient cycles, climatic feedbacks and

responses, and potential impacts on ecosystems,

resources, and the economy.

Research to explore the uses and identify the limits of

evolving knowledge will focus on the following areas:

• Support informed public discussion of issues of particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting

research and providing scientific synthesis and

assessment reports 

• Support adaptive management and planning for

resources and physical infrastructure affected by climate variability and change; build new partnerships

with public and private sector entities that can benefit both research and decisions

• Support policymaking by conducting comparative

analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and

environmental consequences of response options.

TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESIS

PRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for

selected sectors and regions.

There is a great need for regional climate information; further

evaluation of the reliability of current information is crucial in

developing new applications.

within 2 years

Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in 

decisionmaking.

Improvements in how scientific uncertainty is evaluated and

communicated can help reduce misunderstanding and misuse of this information.

within 2 years

Decision support experiments and evaluations using

seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational

data.

Climate variability is an important factor in resource planning

and management; improved application of forecasts and data

can benefit society.

within 2 years

Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving

knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to

climate variability and change.

GOAL 5

21
Land cover refers to everything

covering the land surface,

including vegetation, bare soil,

buildings and infrastructure,

inland bodies of water, and wetlands. Land use refers to societal

arrangements and activities that

affect land cover. Land cover and

use influence climate and weather at local to global scales; they

can have direct impacts on climate by affecting the composition of the atmosphere and the

exchange of energy between

continents and the atmosphere.

Because of this, land-cover characteristics are key inputs to climate models. Land cover and

use also affect water runoff, the

carbon and nitrogen cycles, and

the distribution of plants and

animals in ecosystems.

CCSP-supported research on

land-use/land-cover change

focuses on processes that determine changes in land cover and

land use at local, regional, and

global scales; and on how land

cover and use will change over

timescales of 10-50 years.

Research will quantify the

human influences on the land;

improve monitoring, measuring,

and mapping; and develop 

projections of changes in land

cover and land use based on

assumptions about climate,

demographic, economic, and

technological trends.

Benefits from this research

include:

• Identifying areas of rapid

land-use and land-cover

change and the extent and

impact of major disturbances

such as fire, insects, drought,

and flooding on land use and

land cover

• Identifying past and projected trends in land cover or

land use that are attributable

to changes in climate (e.g.,

changes in forest types, forest

margins, agriculture, and

desert margins), and identifying U.S. regions where climate change may have the

greatest implications for land

management

• Identifying the effects of land

use and land cover on carbon

dynamics and the mitigation

and management of greenhouse gases.

Deforestation near Rio Branco, Brazil. Systematic cutting of the forest vegetation

starts along roads and then fans out to create the “fishbone” pattern evident in this

image. A plume of smoke also is visible. The photo, taken on 28 July 2000 by the 

satellite-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer’s (MISR) vertical-viewing (nadir)

camera, covers an area of 336 x 333 kilometers (207 x 209 miles). Source: NASA.

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

22
23

The CCSP will employ four core approaches in

working toward its goals.

1. Scientific Research

Plan, Sponsor, and Conduct Research on

Changes in Climate and Related Systems

The greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets

will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in scientific knowledge, facilitating the discovery of the unexpected, and advancing the frontiers of research.The CCSP participating agencies

will coordinate their work through seven

“research elements” that focus on features that

make the Earth unique (see Research Element

descriptions in text boxes throughout the Vision

Document for more information).These features

include diverse forms of carbon-based life, water

in multiple interacting phases, an oxidizing and

protective atmosphere, and a climate system that

redistributes energy to make a habitable planet.

The seven research elements have evolved from

the framework for research presented in Global

Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next

Decade, a report from the National Research

Council that lays out advances in knowledge needed to improve predictive capability in Earth systems science:

• Atmospheric Composition: How the composition of the global atmosphere is altered by

human activities and natural phenomena, and

how such changes influence climate, ozone,

ultraviolet radiation, pollutant exposure,

ecosystems, and human health

• Climate Variability and Change: How climate elements that are particularly important

to human and natural systems – especially temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and

storminess – are affected by natural processes

and human activities 

• Global Water Cycle: How natural processes

and humans influence the distribution and quality of water, whether changes are predictable,

and how variability and change in the water

cycle may affect human and natural systems

• Land-Use/Land-Cover Change: How

changes in land use and land cover interact

with atmospheric composition, the global

water cycle, biogeochemistry, ecosystems, climate, and socioeconomic factors, and the

extent to which land-use and land-cover

change are predictable

• Global Carbon Cycle:A focus on identifying

the size and variability of, and potential future

changes to, the Earth’s reservoirs and fluxes of

carbon, and providing the scientific underpinning for evaluating carbon sequestration opportunities and alternative response options

• Ecosystems: How natural and human-induced

changes in the environment interact to affect

the structure, functioning, and services of

ecosystems, and what options society may have

to ensure that desirable ecosystem goods and

services will be sustained or enhanced

• Human Contributions and Responses:

How human activities interact to drive changes

in the climate system, land use, and related systems, and how humans prepare for and respond

to these changes.

In its sponsorship and conduct of research, the

CCSP will establish a balance between focus and

breadth by involving both decisionmakers and the

science community.The program also will encourage integration among research elements to facilitate progress on research topics that span these

research areas.This also will help develop knowledge of the evolution of the integrated Earth system, which is strongly affected by numerous interactions among its components at multiple scales.

The CCSP will integrate activities such as modeling, observations, and data management in its

Core Approaches
Carbon is important as one of

the building blocks for the food

and fiber that sustain human

populations, as the primary

energy source fueling

economies, and as a major contributor to the greenhouse effect

and climate change. Carbon

dioxide and methane concentrations have been increasing in

the atmosphere, primarily as a

result of human use of fossil

fuels and land.

CCSP-supported research on the

global carbon cycle focuses on

identifying potential future

changes to atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic storage of carbon, and movement of carbon

among those pools.The program

also provides the scientific

underpinning for managing carbon sources and sinks. Specific

programs and projects focus on

North American and oceanic

carbon sources and sinks; the

impact of land-use change and

resource management practices

on carbon sources and sinks;

projecting future atmospheric

carbon dioxide and methane

concentrations and changes in

land-based and marine carbon

sinks; and the global distribution

of carbon sources and sinks and

how they are changing.

Benefits from this research

include:

• Increased understanding of the

sources and sinks for carbon,

helping to evaluate carbon

sequestration strategies and

alternative response options 

• Improved confidence in projections of atmospheric concentrations of carbon-based

greenhouse gases.

Monitoring Carbon Flows. Scientists near Pt. Barrow, Alaska, check instruments that

measure fluxes of carbon to and from the atmosphere. Source: Gary Braasch.

Global Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

24
research activities.The program will also encourage integration between and among agencies that

conduct its scientific programs and supporting

activities.

Scientific progress depends on models, which are

essential tools for synthesizing observations, theory, and experimental results to investigate how the

Earth system works and how it may be affected by

human activities.The CCSP will improve the scientific basis of climate and climate impact models,

improve modeling infrastructure and capacity, and

coordinate and accelerate the use of models to

provide information for decisions.

2. Observations

Enhance Observations and Data

Management Systems to Generate a

Comprehensive Set of Variables Needed 

for Climate-Related Research

Since the early years of the USGCRP, an expanded

program of global observations has been developed to characterize climate variability and change

on a global and regional basis.These observations

have included paleoclimatic records spanning

thousands of years, satellite remote-sensing systems covering the entire globe, and numerous in

situ observations on land (including the polar

regions), in the atmosphere, and throughout the

ocean.The suite of available observations includes

long-term observations associated with NOAA’s

satellite monitoring program and global weather

observations, which have not historically been

considered as part of the USGCRP; several longterm surface-based measurement networks operated by NASA, NOAA, DOE, and other agencies;

and several long-running NASA research satellites

and series of satellites, as well as a large number

of limited-duration measurements obtained during

research campaigns.

Prior and current investments in new observations, as they come to fruition, will significantly

enhance knowledge of environmental variables in

25

the coming years. But there is also a need for

enhanced global and regional integration of observation and data management systems, especially to

help generate new and improved products for supporting decisions.The CCSP will expand the

capacity to prioritize, ensure the quality of,

archive, and disseminate (in useful format) the

large quantity of available observations.

The CCSP will develop new requirements for

observation systems to support integrated evaluation of climate and ecosystem parameters.

Improved observation systems will address

additional research issues, including those having to do with ecosystems, with changes in land

use or land cover, and with feedbacks among

climate variables.

In implementing its observing strategy, the CCSP

will adhere to NRC climate monitoring principles, as well as to the Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS) climate monitoring principles for

satellites.The program will also seek to foster

closer integration of – and cooperation among –

research and operational activities and programs.

The CCSP will improve strategies for the transition of observational systems originally developed

for research to an operational setting in order to

carry out long-term monitoring and data collection.The program will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation of a new international Earth Observation

program.The program, initiated at a meeting

hosted by the U.S. Government in July 2003, will

be developed over the next 10 years.

3. Decision Support

Develop Improved Science-Based

Resources to Aid Decisionmaking

The available scientific record has been used for

many years to address a range of questions, from

detecting climate change and attributing it to particular causes, to utilizing satellite and groundbased observations and related analyses in
Ecosystems shape our societies

and nations by providing essential renewable resources and

other benefits including food,

fiber, timber, energy, biodiversity, clean air and water, and nonmaterial (e.g., aesthetic) values.

Their capacity to provide such

benefits is affected by climate

variability and change, and by

human influences. Improving

projections of future climate

and global changes depends on

improved understanding of

ecosystem processes under 

multiple natural and human

influences.

Research on ecosystems conducted and supported by

Federal agencies under the

CCSP focuses on how natural

and human-induced changes in

the environment interact to

affect the structure, functioning,

and services of ecosystems –

including those ecosystem

processes that in turn influence

regional and global environmental changes. Research also focuses on what options society may

have to ensure that ecosystem

goods and services are sustained

or enhanced. Specific focus

areas include key processes that

link ecosystems with climate;

consequences of global change

for ecosystems at different

scales; and options for managing

agricultural lands, forests, and

other ecosystems.

Benefits from this research

include:

• Quantification of important

feedbacks from ecological systems to climate and atmospheric composition to

improve the accuracy of climate projections

• Updated information on the

sensitivity and adaptability of

key ecosystems to climate

variability and change, including the potential for abrupt

change

• Comprehensive indicators of

ecosystem change and health

• Information to support management decisions for agricultural lands, forests, fisheries,

and other ecosystems under

conditions of environmental

change.

Elevated CO2 Concentration Experiment. The Smithsonian Environmental Research

Center (SERC) is conducting a series of innovative experiments that expose portions of

salt marsh and forest ecosystems to elevated CO2 concentrations in outdoor chambers.

Source: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center.

Ecosystems

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

26
resource management applications.The CCSP will

improve interactions with stakeholders and develop resources to support public discussion and

planning, adaptive management, and policymaking. It also will encourage development of new

methods, models, and other resources that facilitate economic analysis, decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty, and integration and interpretation of information from the natural and

social sciences in particular decision contexts.

Evaluation and communication of uncertainty and

levels of confidence is crucial to supporting decisions. CCSP research will address fundamental

uncertainties. However, uncertainty can never be

completely eliminated, and thus it is also important to develop approaches for using scientific

information in decisions made when there are

substantial uncertainties.This will help decisionmakers understand the uses and limits of the available information.The CCSP will develop and

employ transparent and systematic approaches for

decision support, and will evaluate, quantify, and

report levels of confidence and uncertainty.

4. Communications

Communicate Results to Domestic and

International Scientific and Stakeholder

Communities, Stressing Openness and

Transparency 

Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even among scientists. Because of the unique, large commitment of

public resources to CCSP activities, the CCSP has

a responsibility to communicate with interested

partners in the United States and throughout the

world, and to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. As an essential part of its mission,

the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility

of enhancing the quality of public discussion by

stressing openness and transparency in its findings

and reports.

27

The CCSP will employ four methods to ensure

the trustworthiness of its reported findings:

• Use of structured analyses (usually questionbased) for CCSP scientific synthesis, assessment, and projection reports 

• Use of transparent methodologies that openly

report all key assumptions, methods, data, and

uncertainties 

• Continuous use of web-based and other forms

of information dissemination so that CCSP

information is freely available to all interested

users 

• Frequent use of “draft for comment” methods

to seek external review before completion of

each key document.

The CCSP also will continue to urge all of its

sponsored researchers to seek publication of their

findings in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Each of these approaches is essential for achieving

the CCSP’s goals. Scientific Research and

Observations will rely heavily on existing programs and mechanisms, as well as integration of

capabilities developed outside the prior global

change research framework. Decision Support and

Communications will require the development of

new capabilities and initiatives during the coming

years, as well as interactions with other

Committee on Environment and Natural

Resources and National Science and Technology

Council committees.
Human activities are an important influence on the global

environment. Human responses, through adaptation and mitigation, will strongly influence

the social impacts (both positive

and negative) of global environmental changes.

CCSP-supported research on

human contributions and

responses to global change

focuses on the interactions of

changes in the global environment and human activities.The

current focus of this research is

on the extent of human influences on the climate system,

land use, and on other global

environmental changes; analyses

of societal sensitivity and adaptability to global environmental

change; decisionmaking under

conditions of significant complexity and uncertainty; methods for integrating information

on climate change and potential

response options; and the

potential effects of climate variability and change on human

health and welfare.

Benefits from these research

efforts include:

• Scenarios strengthened by an

improved understanding of

the interdependence among

economics, population

growth, energy consumption,

advancements in technologies, and emissions

• Adaptation strategies to

effectively manage the

impacts of seasonal and yearto-year climate variability

such as El Niño events

• Elevation maps depicting

areas vulnerable to sea level

rise and planning maps

depicting how state and local

governments plan to respond

to sea level rise

• Strategies for communicating

climate-related information

to resource managers (e.g.,

farmers, forest landowners,

drought policy planners,

water utilities) and urban

planners at local to national

levels

• Assessments of the potential

consequences of global

change for human health in

the United States.

The Human Influence. Mahantango Creek watershed near Klingerstown, Pennsylvania.

Human activities play an important part in many natural systems and are forces for

change in the environment at local, regional, and even global scales.

Human Contributions

and Responses

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

GLOBAL WATER CYCLE

LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

ECOSYSTEMS 

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT

28
29

CCSP Organization and Management

The CCSP integrates research on global change

and climate change sponsored by its participating

agencies and departments. By leveraging the

complementary strengths of these agencies and

departments, the CCSP facilitates research and

applications that would otherwise fall beyond the

capabilities of any individual participating agency.

The President created the CCSP in February

2002 as part of a new cabinet-level management

structure to oversee public investments in climate change science and technology.The new

structure also includes the CCTP, which is

responsible for accelerating climate changerelated technology research and development.

The CCSP approach to management integrates

the planning and implementation of the individual climate and global change research programs

of the participating federal departments and

agencies to reduce overlaps, identify and fill programmatic gaps, and add integrative value to

products and deliverables produced under the

CCSP’s auspices.

Five mechanisms are used to achieve this management approach:

• Executive direction by the cabinet-based management structure, including priority setting,

management review, and accountability

• Program implementation by CCSP participating agencies

• Coordinated planning and program implementation through interagency working

groups 

• External interactions for guidance, evaluation,

and feedback 

• Coordination and management support from

an interagency office accountable to the

CCSP interagency governing committee.

Interactions among those responsible for these

five management elements are critical for

improving the scientific planning, the effectiveness of interagency management, and the focus

of climate and global change research to support

governmental and non-governmental needs.

About the CCSP Strategic Plan

This Vision Document provides an overview of

the CCSP Strategic Plan.The plan describes a

strategy for developing knowledge of variability

and change in climate and related environmental

and human systems, and for encouraging the

application of this knowledge.The strategy seeks

to optimize the benefits of research that is conducted, sponsored, or applied by 13 agencies and

departments of the U.S. Government.The strategy describes in greater detail the goals of the

CCSP and its component programs, the products

that are expected to result, and the approaches

and criteria that will be adopted to implement

the program.The table of contents of the Plan is

reproduced as Appendix A.
Appendix A

Table of Contents for the CCSP

Strategic Plan

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change

Research

Chapter 3. Atmospheric Composition 

Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change

Chapter 5.Water Cycle 

Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change 

Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle 

Chapter 8. Ecosystems 

Chapter 9. Human Contributions and Responses to

Environmental Change 

Chapter 10. Modeling Strategy

Chapter 11. Decision Support Resources Development

Chapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate

System

Chapter 13. Data Management and Information

Chapter 14. Communications 

Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation 

Chapter 16. Program Management and Review

Annexes

A. Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants

B. References

C. Graphics and Photography Source Information

D. Glossary

E. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units

The full text of the CCSP Strategic Plan is available at

<http://www.climatescience.gov/>.

30

Appendix B

Principal Areas of Focus for the

CCSP Agencies

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)

USDA-sponsored research supports long-term studies to

improve our understanding of the roles that terrestrial systems play in influencing climate change, and the potential

effects of global change (including water balance, atmospheric

deposition, vegetative quality, and ultraviolet-B radiation) on

food, fiber, and forestry production in agricultural, forest,

and range ecosystems. USDA’s research program is strengthening efforts to determine the significance of terrestrial systems in the global carbon cycle, and to identify agricultural

and forestry activities that can contribute to a reduction in

greenhouse gas concentrations. USDA’s research agencies will

support the Department in responding to the President’s

directive to develop accounting rules and guidelines for carbon sequestration projects. Contributions from USDA’s

research program include the development of improved emission and sequestration coefficients, new tools for accurately

measuring carbon and other greenhouse gases, and the development of improved sequestration methodologies.

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (DOC)

The DOC’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation

(NOAA) mission is: “To understand and predict changes in

the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal 

and marine resources to meet the nation’s economic, social,

and environmental needs.The long-term global change

efforts of NOAA are designed to develop a predictive understanding of variability and change in the global climate 

system, and to advance the application of this information in

climate-sensitive sectors through a suite of process research,

observations and modeling, and application and assessment

activities. Specifically, NOAA’s research program includes

ongoing efforts in operational in situ and satellite observations

with an emphasis on oceanic and atmospheric dynamics,

circulation, and chemistry; understanding and predicting

ocean-land-atmosphere interactions, the global water cycle,

and the role of global transfers of carbon dioxide among the

atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in climate

change; improvements in climate modeling, prediction, and

information management capabilities; the projection and

assessment of variability across multiple time scales; the study

of the relationship between the natural climate system and

society and the development of methodologies for applying

climate information to problems of social and economic consequences; and archiving, managing, and disseminating data

and information useful for global change research. DOC’s

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) provides measurements and standards that support accurate and
reliable climate observations. NIST also performs calibrations

and special tests of a wide range of instruments and measurement techniques for accurate measurements. NIST provides 

a wide array of data and modeling tools that provide key 

support to developers and users of complex climate prediction models.

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD)

The Department of Defense does not support dedicated global change research, but continues a history of participation in

the CCSP through sponsored research that concurrently satisfies national security requirements and stated goals of the

CCSP. All data and research results are routinely made available to the civil science community. DOD science and technology investments are coordinated and reviewed through the

Defense Reliance process and published annually in the

Defense Science and Technology Strategy, the Basic Research

Plan, the Defense Technology Area Research Plan, and the

Joint Warfighting Science and Technology Plan.

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (DOE)

Research supported by DOE’s Office of Biological and

Environmental Research (BER) is focused on the effects of

energy production and use on the global Earth system, primarily through studies of climate response. Research includes

climate modeling, aerosol and cloud properties and processes

affecting the Earth’s radiation balance, and sources and sinks

of energy-related greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide). It also includes research on the consequences of climatic

and atmospheric changes for ecological systems and

resources, the development of improved methods and models

for conducting integrated economic and environmental

assessments of climate change and of options for mitigating

climate change, and education and training of scientists for

climate change research.

DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

(HHS)

Four National Institutes of Health (NIH) institutes support

research on the health effects of ultraviolet (UV) and nearUV radiation.Their principal objectives include an increased

understanding of the effects of UV and near-UV radiation

exposure on target organs (e.g., eyes, skin, immune system)

and of the molecular changes that lead to these effects, and

the development of strategies to prevent the initiation or promotion of disease before it is clinically defined. In addition,

the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

(NIEHS) supports research on the health effects of chlorofluorocarbon replacement chemicals, including studies on the

metabolism and toxicity of hydrofluorocarbons and halogenated hydrocarbons. HHS (NIH and the Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention) also conducts research 

related to other impacts of global change on human health,

including renewed concern about infectious diseases whose

31

incidence could be affected by environmental change. In addition, NIH sponsors a program to assess the impact of population change on the physical environment and to account for

effects of the physical environment on population change.

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (DOI)

Research at DOI’s U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) contributes directly to the CCSP’s intellectual framework of a

whole-system understanding of global change (i.e., the interrelationships among climate, ecological systems, and human

behavior).The USGS examines terrestrial and marine

processes and the natural history of global change, including

the interactions between climate and the hydrologic system.

Studies seek to understand the character of past and present

environments and the geological, biological, hydrological, and

geochemical processes involved in environmental change.The

USGS supports a broad area of global change research, with a

focus on understanding the sensitivity of natural systems and

impacts of climate change and variability, surficial processes,

and other global change phenomena on the nation’s lands and

environments at the regional scale. Specific goals of the program are: to improve the utility of global change research

results to land management agencies; to emphasize monitoring the landscape and developing technical approaches to

identifying and analyzing changes that will take advantage of a

burgeoning archive of remotely sensed and in situ data; and to

emphasize the response of biogeographic regions and features, particularly montane, coastal, and inland wetland

ecosystems.

DEPARTMENT OF STATE (DOS)

Through DOS annual funding, the United States is the

world’s leading financial contributor to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change and to the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a major 

organization for the assessment of scientific, technical, and

socioeconomic information relevant to the understanding of

climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Recent DOS contributions to the IPCC

provide substantial support for the Global Climate Observing

System, among other activities.

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (DOT)

DOT utilizes existing science to improve decisionmaking

tools in three primary areas: (1) impact of climate variability

and change on transportation (research to examine the effects

that climate change and variability may have on transportation

infrastructure and services, and to identify potential adaptation strategies for use by transportation decisionmakers,

operators, state and local planners, and infrastructure

builders); (2) increasing energy efficiency and reducing

greenhouse gases (research on reducing energy use will cover

mitigation of transportation’s environmental impacts both
through conservation and through the application of new

technology); and (3) modeling (research to develop and

improve analytical tools for transportation energy use to support decisionmaking throughout government and in the private sector).

AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

(USAID)

USAID provides decisionmakers with the information to

effectively respond to drought and food insecurity through

the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET).

FEWS NET analyzes remote-sensing data and ground-based

meteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to track

progress of rainy seasons in semi-arid regions of Africa in

order to identify early indications of potential famine.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (EPA)

EPA’s Global Change Research Program is an assessmentoriented program with primary emphasis on understanding

the potential consequences of climate variability and change

on human health, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems in

the United States.This entails: (1) improving the scientific

basis for evaluating effects of global change on air quality,

water quality, ecosystems, and human health in the context of

other stressors and in light of human dimensions (as humans

are catalysts of and respond to global change); (2) conducting

assessments of the risks and opportunities presented by global

change; and (3) assessing adaptation options to increase

resiliency to change and improve society’s ability to effectively respond to the risks and opportunities presented by global

change. EPA’s program emphasizes the integration of the concepts, methods, and results of the physical, biological, and

social sciences into decision support frameworks.

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE

ADMINISTRATION (NASA)

The mission of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise is to understand and protect our home planet by using our view from

space to study the Earth system and improve prediction of

Earth system change. NASA programs are aimed at understanding the Earth system and applying Earth system science

to improve prediction of climate, weather and natural hazards

in partnership with other Federal agencies and international

space and research programs. Its Research Strategy orchestrates observing and modeling programs to address these

essential questions:

• How is the Earth changing, and what are the consequences

for life on Earth?

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth 

system?

• How does the Earth system respond to natural and

human-induced change?

32

• What are the consequences of change in the Earth system

for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes in the Earth 

system?

NASA’s portfolio includes observations, research, analysis,

modeling, and advanced technology development, in order to

answer selected science questions, and benchmarking decision

support resources to ensure society receives the benefits of

this research.

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (NSF)

NSF programs address global change issues through investments in challenging ideas, creative people, and effective

tools. In particular, NSF global change research programs

support research and related activities to advance the fundamental understanding of physical, chemical, biological, and

human systems and the interactions among them.The programs encourage interdisciplinary activities and focus particularly on Earth system processes and the consequences of

change. NSF programs facilitate data acquisition and information management activities necessary for fundamental

research on global change, and promote the enhancement of

models designed to improve understanding of Earth system

processes and interactions and to develop advanced analytic

methods to facilitate basic research. NSF also supports fundamental research on the general processes used by organizations to identify and evaluate policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses to the challenge of varying environmental conditions.

SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

Within the Smithsonian Institution, global change research is

conducted at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, the

National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian

Environmental Research Center, the National Museum of

Natural History, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,

and the National Zoological Park. Research is organized

around themes of atmospheric processes, ecosystem dynamics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmental

change on daily to decadal time scales, and defining longer

term climate proxies present in the historical artifacts and

records of the museums as well as in the geologic record at

field sites.The Smithsonian Institution program strives to

improve knowledge of the natural processes involved in global climate change, provide a long-term repository of climaterelevant research materials for present and future studies, and

to bring this knowledge to various audiences, ranging from

scholarly to the lay public.The unique contribution of the

Smithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective – for

example, undertaking investigations that may require extended study before producing useful results and conducting

observations on sufficiently long (e.g., decadal) time scales to

resolve human-caused modification of natural variability.
Appendix C

Key Gaps in the Science of

Climate Change

From the White House document at:

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/

climatechange.pdf>

“Advancing the Science of Climate Change”

Key Gaps in Science of Climate Change 

Despite major investments in climate change science by the

United States and other nations over the past decade, and

despite major accomplishments by scientists throughout the

world, numerous gaps remain in our understanding of climate

change.The National Academy of Sciences identified in its

report, Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions

(June 2001), critical uncertainties about the science of climate change. Fundamentally, the report indicated the need to

better understand the causes of warming.The National

Academy of Sciences stated, “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities,

causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise.Temperatures are, in fact, rising.The

changes observed over the last several decades are likely

mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that

some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of

natural variability.”

The National Academy of Sciences report goes on to identify

a range of specific areas that require additional study and

research.The following considerations provide important

information that will be used in setting priorities:

How much carbon is sequestered by oceans and terrestrial sinks and how much remains in the atmosphere is uncertain:

• “How land contributes, by location and processes, to

exchanges of carbon with the atmosphere is still highly

uncertain... ” (p. 11) 

• “These estimates [of future carbon dioxide climate forcings]... are only approximate because of uncertainty about

how efficiently the ocean and terrestrial biosphere will

sequester atmospheric CO2.” (p. 13) 

• “How much of the carbon from future use of fossil fuels

will be seen as increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will depend on what fractions are taken up by

land and by the oceans.The exchanges with land occur

on various time scales, out to centuries for soil

decomposition in high latitudes, and they are sensitive

to climate change.Their projection into the future is

highly problematic.” (p. 18) 

The feedbacks in the climate system that determine

the magnitude and rate of temperature increases are

uncertain:

• “Because there is considerable uncertainty in current

understanding of how the climate system varies naturally

and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols,

current estimates of the magnitude of future warming

should be regarded as tentative and subject to future

adjustments (either upward or downward).” (p. 1) 

• “Much of the difference in predictions of global warming

by various climate models is attributable to the fact that

each model represents these [feedback] processes in its

own particular way.These uncertainties will remain until a

more fundamental understanding of the processes that

control atmospheric relative humidity and clouds is

achieved.” (p. 4) 

The direct and indirect effects of aerosols are 

uncertain:

• “The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing—indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about

global climate forcings—is probably the indirect effect of

aerosols on clouds.” (p. 14) 

• “The great uncertainty about this indirect aerosol climate

forcing presents a severe handicap both for the interpretation of past climate change and for future assessments of

climate changes.” (p. 14) 

• “Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a large

source of uncertainty about future climate change.” (p. 13) 

• “Because of the scientific uncertainties associated with the

sources and composition of carbonaceous aerosols, projections of future impacts on climate are difficult.” (p. 12) 

The details and impacts of regional climate change

resulting from global climate change are uncertain:

• “On the regional scale and in the longer term, there is

much more uncertainty” with respect to effects on agriculture and forestry. (p. 19) 

• “The Northern Hemisphere as a whole experienced a

slight cooling from 1946-75, and the cooling during that

period was quite marked over the eastern United States.

The cause of this hiatus in the warming is still under

debate.” (p. 16) 

• “Health outcomes in response to climate change are the

subject of intense debate...The understanding of the relationships between weather/climate and human health is in

its infancy and therefore the health consequences of climate change are poorly understood.The costs, benefits,

and availability of resources for adaptation are also 

uncertain.” (p. 20) 

• “Changes in storm frequency and intensity are one of 

the more uncertain elements of future climate change 

prediction.” (p. 20) 

33
The nature and causes of the natural variability of

climate and its interactions with forced changes are

uncertain:

• “Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural

variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents

(and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the

buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the

observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot

be unequivocally established.” (p. 17)

• “The value of indirect effect of ozone changes induced by

solar ultraviolet irradiance variations “remains highly

uncertain.” (p. 14) 

The future usage of fossil fuels and the future 

emissions of methane are uncertain:

• “With a better understanding of the sources and sinks of

methane, it may be possible to encourage practices...that

lead to a decrease in atmospheric methane and significantly reduce future climate change.” (p. 13) 

• “There is no definitive scientific basis for choosing

among several possible explanations for these variations

in the rates of change of global methane contributions,

making it very difficult to predict its future atmospheric

concentrations.” (p. 11) 

In response to these gaps in our knowledge, the National

Academy of Sciences study also recommends, “research that

couples physical, chemical, biological, and human systems; an

improved capability of integrating scientific knowledge,

including its uncertainty, into effective decision support systems, and an ability to conduct research at the regional or

sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of human

and natural systems to multiple stresses.”

The NAS report also indicates that to advance the understanding of climate change, it will be necessary to have “a

global observing system in support of long-term climate

monitoring and prediction [and] concentration on large-scale

modeling through increased, dedicated supercomputing and

human resources.” High priority areas for further research

also are identified in numerous recent reports and documents, such as: Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways

for the Next Decade (1999), Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to

Support Climate Change Assessment Activities (1998), Adequacy of

Climate Observing Systems (1999), and others.

34
James R. Mahoney, CCSP Director

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO Director

David M. Allen

Jeff Amthor

Susan K. Avery

James H. Butler

Margarita Conkright Gregg

David J. Dokken [TECHNICAL EDITOR]

Susanna Eden

Genene Fisher

Stephanie A. Harrington

Chester J. Koblinsky

David M. Legler

Sandy MacCracken

Jessica Orrego

Rick S. Piltz

Nicholas A. Sundt

Ahsha N.Tribble

Bud Ward

Robert C.Worrest

To obtain a copy of this document, contact:

Climate Change Science Program Office

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Suite 250

Washington, DC 20006

202-223-6262 (voice)

202-223-3065 (fax)

information@climatescience.gov

http://www.climatescience.gov/

http://www.usgcrp.gov/

The Climate Change Science Program

incorporates the U.S. Global Change

Research Program and the Climate Change

Research Initiative.

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM OFFICE
U.S. Climate Change Science Program

1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)

http://www.climatescience.gov/