Technical Support Document (TSD) for the Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan Forthe Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA 1997 PM2

.sNonattainment Area

SubmittedApril2014by the PennsylvaniaDepartment ofEnvironmental Protection TSD Prepared August 2014 by Jessica L. Fry Office ofAirMonitoring and Analysis, 3AP40 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice H. Chow, Associate Director Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

### I. Introduction The purpose ofthis document is to provide atechnical summary ofthe Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted withthe Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA 1997 PM2.s Nonattainment Area (NAA) bythe PennsylvaniaDepartment ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). TheNAA consists ofCumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon counties in Pennsylvania. This review does not determine the approvability ofthe redesignation request ormaintenance plan. Emissions inventories in a redesignation request are used to showpermanent and enforceable emissionreductions between the year the area was designated as a nonattainment area and the yearthe area came into attainment. In a maintenance plan, the emissions inventories are usedto reflect the emissions during the time the area came into attainment and are then projected to showthat the area will remain in attainment. Any questions pertainingto this technical summary shouldbe directed to Alice H. Chow, Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or via email at chow.alice@epa.gov. 

### II. Emissions Inventories for Redesignation Request 2002Nonattainment YearInventory In a redesignationrequest, emissions inventories are used to support the State's claim that the areahas permanent and enforceable emissions reductions. In order to do this, the state should estimate the percent reduction (from the year that was used to determine the design value for designation and classification) achieved from federal and state control measures; this is usually termed as the nonattainment or baseline year inventory. For the purpose ofthis planthe year 2002 was usedthe nonattainment year inventory. The 2002 nonattainment year inventory contains primary PMz.s emissions (including condensibles), S02,NOx, VOC, andNH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2002 nonattainment year inventory that was used in the HarrisburgLebanon-Carlisle, PA Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan submittedby PADEP. The 2002 point source inventory contained emissions for electric generating units (EGUs) and Non-EGU sources inthe NAA. PADEP developedtheir 2002 inventory byusing emissions directly reported by the facilities. The 2002 point source inventory does not include condensable PM emissions for many facilities. The nonpoint source emissions inventory for 2002 was developed using 2002 specific activity data along with EPA emission factors and the most recently available emission calculation methodologies. For 2002 nonroad mobile sources, PADEP generated the emissions using EPA's NONROAD 2005 model. Since marine, air and rail/locomotive (MAR) emissions are not part of the NONROAD model, they were calculated separately outside ofthe NONROAD model. Aircraft emissions were estimatedusing the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) 4.20. Locomotive emissions were projected from a 1999 emissions survey offueluse statistics from Class II and II railroads.The 2002 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA's highway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate. OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emissionresults providedby PADEP and found them to be acceptable. 

### III. Emissions Inventories for Maintenance Plan 2007Attainment YearInventory andMaintenancePlan Base YearInventory Under section 172(c)(3) states are requiredto submit a comprehensive, accurate, current accounting ofactual emissions from all sources (point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad) in the nonattainment area. This inventory contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02, NOx, VOC, andNH3. In a Maintenance Plan, states are required to submit an inventory used for the year ofattainment, which is called the attainment year inventory and can also be referred to as the maintenance planbase year inventory. This inventory is used as the basis for the projected inventories that are used to showthe areawill remain in attainment. The base year inventory submitted by PADEP contains primary PM2.s emissions (including condensibles), S02, NOx, VOC, and NH3 emissions. This section will discuss the 2007 emissions inventory that was used in the Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan in order to fulfill the 172(c)(3) and attainment year emissions inventory requirements; Forthe 2007 base year inventory for the point, nonpoint, and nonroad categories, PADEP submitted the 2007 Version 3 Emissions Inventory developed through the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air ManagementAssociation (MARAMA) regional planning process. Documentation ofthe development ofthe inventory canbe found in Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 2007Emission Inventory for the RegionalAir QualityModeling in the NortheastIMidAtlanticRegion Version 3.3. January 23, 2012. The 2007 point source inventory contained emissions for EGU andNon-EGU sources in the NAA. EPA guidance for emissions inventory development provides that actual emissions should be used for purposes ofthe base year inventory. PADEP developed their 2007 inventory by using emissions directly reported by the facilities. The EGU inventory was augmented and missing condensable PM emissions were supplementedusing emission factors developed for MARAMA in 2008. The nonpoint source emissions inventory for 2007 was developed using 2007 specific activity data along with EPA emission factors and the mostrecently available emission calculation methodologies. PADEP used 2008 NEI datato fill in any missing categories in the 2007 inventory. For 2007 nonroad mobile sources, PADEP generated the emissions using EPA's NMIM2008 model. Since marine, air and rail/locomotive (MAR) emissions are not part ofthe NONROAD model, they were calculated separately outside ofthe NONROAD model. Aircraftemissions were developed using EPA's database to the support the 2008 NEI. PADEP used railroad emissions developed by the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC). The 2007 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA'shighway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs in the model where appropriate. OAMA staffreviewed the files and the emission results providedby PADEP and found them to be acceptable. 2017and2025Projection Emission Inventories Projection inventories are used to showthat the area will remain in attainment. PADEP used 2017 and 2025 emissionprojections developed through the MARAMA regional planning process for the interim and maintenance plan end year, respectively. Emissionprojections, emissionmethodologies and growth factors for 2017 and 2025 can be found in the Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 2013/201712020Emission Inventoriesfor RegionalAir QualityModeling in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region (MARAMA 2017 TSD) and the Technical SupportDocument for the Development of the 2025 Emission Inventory for PM2

.sNonattainment Counties in the MANE-VURegion, January 2012 (MARAMA 2025 TSD), respectively. For EGU emissions, PADEP used growth factors based onthe Annual Energy Outlook (AE02011) and applied them to the 2007 inventory. Non-EGU emissions projections were based on Version 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employment projections, and other state-specific emissionprojection data. Nonpoint source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed similarly to the non-EGU point sources. Emissionprojections were based onVersion 3.3 ofthe 2007 MANE-VU+VA inventory. MARAMA growth factors were developed using AEO fuel consumption forecasts, state-level employmentprojections, and other state-specific emission projection data. Nonroad source emissions for 2017 and 2025 were developed using NMIM model runs which contain default assumptions for projected years. Aircraft emissions were projectedby applying activity growth datareported in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) system for 2009-2030 (FAA2010). Railroad emissions were based on the MARAMA MANE-VU+Va inventory. The 2017 and 2025 onroad mobile source inventory was developed using EPA'shighway mobile source emissions model MOVES2010. PADEP used local activity to replace default inputs inthe model where appropriate OAMA staffreviewed the methodologies provided by PADEP and found them to be acceptable.