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© USIP 2012 • All rights reserved.

“The underlying relationship found between hot and 

cold wars is the interplay of 

resource abundance and 

resource scarcity that is caused 

by changes in the climate. 

Generally speaking, with 

climate change, there is a 

shift of resource availability 

from hot to cold states.”

February 1, 2012

Climate Change as a Confl ict Multiplier

Summary

• Climate change can be a con ict multiplying mechanism as it fosters unforeseen con icts 

and reinforces existing ones. While there are many causes of con ict, climate change can be a 

trigger in the sequence. 

• Climate e ects that constrain resources are unequally distributed to those countries already 

in the most desperate situations. Coupled with rising population growth, these events are 

likely to heighten poverty in the future if no action is taken. Adaptive development must be 

sustainable to bridge existing shortfalls, must plan for anticipated e ects, and provide for the 

longer-term picture. More developed and higher carbon-emitting states should engage in 

mitigation e orts to reduce these e ects. 

• Given that one country will feel the consequences of environmental destruction sown by 

another, the costs and bene ts of adaptation and mitigation should be weighed from a global 

perspective as the capacity of countries to respond varies. Failure to mitigate and adapt to 

climate e ects can raise the likelihood of violent con ict. 

Hot and Cold Climate Wars1

Climate change can have major economic and social consequences for all nations. It is possible that 

some nations will bene t from climate change but most will be impacted negatively. On its current 

path, inaction can lead to negative economic shocks hampering global food and commodity prices. 

Hot wars are the con icts that could emerge in countries near the equator, most of which are developing countries. These con icts can stem from severe drought, declining agricultural production, 

torrential rains,  ash  oods, cyclones, hurricanes, monsoons, tsunamis and tropical storms. Cold wars 

are likely to occur in more temperate and arctic regions where states will face new economic con icts. 

Speci cally, con ict can arise with economic competition for newly available resources resulting 

from a change in ocean ecosystems. This includes border con icts, regulatory challenges and the 

development of new trade routes. The underlying relationship found between hot and cold wars is 

the interplay of resource abundance and resource scarcity that is caused by changes in the climate. 

Generally speaking, with climate change, there is a shift of resource availability from hot to cold states. 

Linking Climate Change to Confl ict

Fluctuations in weather patterns have a direct impact on the availability of essential resources. Speci -

cally, weather damages a ect crop beds, food production cycles and the spreading of water-borne 

diseases that can exacerbate already weak physical, economic and social infrastructures. Most of 

the people that face these negative e ects reside in the world’s poorest countries. These regions are 

AMANDA MAYORAL

E-mail: amayoral@usip.org

Phone: 202.429.4723

PEACEBRIEF120
© USIP 2012 • All rights reserved.

Climate Change as a Confl ict Multiplier

page 2 • PB 120 • February 1, 2012

expected to incur more severe episodes of droughts, more frequent and catastrophic  oods, torrential 

rains, and heightened tropical storms. In 2008, the world faced a food crisis from rising staple food prices due to rising demand and limited supply. Many studies support that this would likely be the case 

in the near future under climate changes and anticipated population growth.2,3 This impact hits home 

as food and basic items become increasingly expensive around the world. More frequently, many are 

observing recent hikes in food prices as a threat to stability as food stocks dry up and incomes and 

employment are lost.4,5 For instance, some analysts attribute the recent unrest in the Middle East and 

Northern Africa as triggered by the spikes in staple food prices. Indeed, formal studies have supported 

this idea  nding a threshold for food prices above which the likelihood of unrest rises.6

While recognizing the importance of food price hikes on con ict, linking these food price increases to 

climate change directly has also been examined. For instance, a recent study by the nongovernmental 

organization Oxfam addresses this issue by comparing staple food prices for both a business as usual 

and climate change a ected scenario.7 The data shows higher food prices across the board in all regions 

experiencing climate change. Noting that the price rises without climate change (the baseline scenario), 

the e ects are even greater during climate change. In addition, there are many studies examining the 

statistical impact climate change has on con ict, recently studies have shown climate cycles to double 

the risk of civil wars, drawing on historical relationships between them.8,9 Another study found El Niño 

storms to account for up to 21 percent of con icts around the world since 1950.10 While forecasting 

models have been created, e orts that can catalyze the research on the sociological and economic impacts are still needed.11 Climate change can also be a con ict driver through its impact on migration.12

Some analysts estimate that climate change will cause 250 million people to lose their homelands by 

2050.13 Migration can put pressure on the receiving country’s economic infrastructure and resources. In 

most cases analyzed, the receiving country is itself relatively poor further constraining resources.14

Mitigation, Adaptation and Policies

Countries can act proactively to absorb anticipated climatic shocks by either mitigating the e ects 

of climate change through lowering emission production, or adapting to the changing conditions. 

Balancing mitigation and adaptation e orts should be con ict sensitive by addressing emergency 

needs when necessary and evaluating the impact and bene t of climate-sensitive development 

opportunities. 

Adaptive activities try to reduce natural disaster risks by developing climate-durable building models, 

a re-alignment of food production processes, more e cient water usage, monitoring sustainable food 

supplies and maintaining reserves for future food crisis. Most countries facing severe adaptation issues 

tend to already be poorer and/or are con ict a ected. For con ict-a ected states, the battle lies in 

prioritizing con ict-sensitive approaches while balancing the need for adaptive and sustainable policies. 

Policies for Adaptation

• Improve understanding of climate-related e ects on local systems and communities;

• Strengthen resilience to climate cycles and invest in adaptive developments, such as drip-feed 

irrigation and agroforestry, inclusive with local level considerations and input in developments;

• Improve e ciency in food production; 

• Encourage development with renewable resources; production requiring non-renewables 

should include provisions to invest in a more sustainable system;

• Plan for migratory bottlenecks by working with regional and international bodies to coordinate contingency plans and funding; 
© USIP 2012 • All rights reserved.

Climate Change as a Confl ict Multiplier

page 3 • PB 120 • February 1, 2012

• Determine provisions to address social dilemmas caused by climate change, including 

programs and agreements on assisting refugees. 

Countries that can play a role in mitigation are those that for the most part caused the climate to 

change, and who are in a relatively better position to a ord mitigation. This calls upon high carbon 

emitting countries, such as the U.S., China and members of the E.U., to drastically reduce their 

emissions and o er  nancial assistance and humanitarian/natural disaster relief to countries facing 

adaptation. The international community has supported these prospects, and used them as a basis 

for developing climate change tools. The proposed levels of mitigation would require signi cant belt 

tightening,and a shift to a greener and more sustainable economy.15 For instance, imposing taxes on 

the price of gasoline or coal could dampen an economy dependent on these commodities, especially 

when growth is consumption driven in a fragile, post- nancial crisis period. However its possible that 

gains can be made through branding sustainable products and conducting business in an ethical 

manner, reducing supply chain risk, and developing greater competitive trade advantages.16 Businesses could  nd bene ts in new markets as they have the opportunity to set industry standards and 

gain market power. More e cient production processes could potentially lead to increased consumption and possibly outweigh the bene ts of carbon heavy products.17

Policies for Mitigation

• Limit and enforce a standard on carbon emissions;

• Phase out agricultural subsidies and invest in more productive technologies, for items such 

as farm, bio, and fossil fuels;

• Invest in education and training opportunities for new technology research to improve food and 

energy use, as well as research modeling the relationship between con ict and climate change;

• Create incentives for a growing green market, including tax breaks, business and education 

credits, and regulations for unsustainable business practices.

The most notable and perhaps recognized e ort at mitigation was the 1998 United Nations Kyoto 

Protocol, which named a series of emissions limits for North American and European countries and 

set a proposition for emission market trading. Since then, the EU has set up its own emissions trading 

scheme, but other major emitters have yet to do so. The U.S. has focused its e orts on an economywide transformation, creating a market for carbon, and increasingly the demand for producing more 

sustainable and e cient products. Below are actions that the international community, both mitigating and adapting countries, can create and support.

International Policies

• Address global price shocks and possibly develop international food reserves coordinated 

between countries. Research and develop counter cyclical regulations for commodity markets; 

• Accumulate funds and programs/plans for receiving increased migratory bottlenecks, 

identifying geographical risks; 

• Reinforce global solutions for food and climate problems, identifying multilateral and 

interconnected approaches, balancing mitigation and adaptation e orts; 

• Foster legal cooperation and improved systems over sea and available land usage;

• Address current ine ciencies in production methods, such as agricultural and energy 

systems, and propose improved regional trading schemes; 

• Create solutions that address the social and economic consequences of climate change, 

including provisions for refugees, island states and con ict-a ected areas.
© USIP 2012 • All rights reserved.

USIP provides the analysis, training and 

tools that prevent and end confl icts, 

promotes stability and professionalizes 

the fi eld of peacebuilding.

For media inquiries, contact the offi ce 

of Public Affairs and Communications, 

202.429.4725

2301 Constitution Ave., NW

Washington, D.C. 20037

ABOUT THIS BRIEF

In the fall of 2010, USIP hosted the 

event Environmental Sustainability 

and Peace in a Changing World. 

This Peace Brief incorporates the 

key points made by discussing the 

linkages between climate change 

and confl ict and outlines opportunities for both mitigation and 

adaptation for all stakeholders.1

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Amanda Mayoral is the special 

assistant to the chief of staff 

at USIP. She has studied economics as a graduate student at 

the American University in 

Washington, D.C.

Conclusion 

Climate change has serious consequences for con ict. Experience has shown environmental 

catastrophes to shock economic and socials systems. These shocks are channeled through the 

interplay of resource scarcity and disruptions in the economic and social structures. Studies have 

found staple food prices to be higher because of climate change (as opposed to the business as 

usual projections). Some studies have even found strong causal relations between climate shocks 

and con ict historically. The e ects can weaken productivity and devastate countries that are 

particularly vulnerable. In planning for these consequences, there are roles for stakeholders at each 

level and the resulting policies should be sensitive to the varying e ects caused by climate change 

and be inclusive to all bene ciaries. 

Endnotes

1. Lee, Dr. James. “Presentation on Climate change and Armed Con ict: Hot and Cold Wars,” Environmental Sustainability and Peace in a Changing World, U.S. Institute of Peace, (November 2010).

2. Khor, Martin. “Food Crisis, Climate Change and the Importance of Sustainable Agriculture,” 

Third World Network; (June 2008).

3. Gregory and Ingram. “Climate change and the Current Food Crisis,”. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in 

Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, No. 099; (2008).

4. Neate, Rupert. “Food Price Explosion Will Devastate the Worlds Poor,” The Guardian/UK; (June 2011). 

5. McDermott, Matthew. “Food Price Rises Contribute to Popular Uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, 

Yemen,” AlterNet; (February 2011). 

6. Lagi, Marco. et al. “The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East,” 

New England Complex Systems Institute, (August 2011).

7. Willenbockel, Dirk. “Exploring Food Price Scenarios Toward 2030 With a Global Multi-Regional 

Model, “ OXFAM, (June 2011). 

8. Carrington, Damian. “Climate Cycles Linked to Civil War, Analysis Shows,” The Guardian; (August 2011). 

9. Burke, Marshall et al. “Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa,” Proceedings of the 

National Academy of Sciences of the Untied States of America; (November 2009). 

10. Solomon, Hsiang; Meng, Kyle; Cane, Mark. “Civil Con icts are Associated with the Global 

Climate,” Nature, Vol. 476; (August 2011).

11. Nagel, Joane; Dietz, Thomas; and Broadbent, Je ery. “Workshop on Sociological Perspectives 

on Global Climate Change,“ National Science Foundation, (May 2008).

12. “Migration and Climate Change,” International Organization for Migration, Migration Research 

Series, No. 31. 

13. Ibid.

14. Ibid.

15. Stern, Nicholas. “The Economics of Climate Change: Stern Review,” Cambridge and New York: 

Cambridge University Press, (2007).

16. “Sustainable Consumption Facts and Trends, From a Business Perspective,” World Business 

Council for Sustainable Development. 

17. Ibid.

18. This paper adopts the commonly accepted belief that major changes in the climate are a 

result of human induced high emissions, waste and industrialization of natural resources. 

Climate Change as a Confl ict Multiplier

page 4 • PB 120 • February 1, 2012