CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

11.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................1 

11.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ........................................................................................2 

11.2.1 NES Definition........................................................................................................ 2
 

11.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs.............................................................................. 3 

11.2.2.1 Annual Unit Energy Consumption ..........................................................3 

11.2.2.2 Shipments ................................................................................................5 

11.2.2.3 Equipment Stock .....................................................................................5 

11.2.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption ...................................................5 

11.2.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factor ...........................................................5 

11.3 NET PRESENT VALUE........................................................................................................6 

11.3.1 Net Present Value Definition.................................................................................. 6 

11.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs ........................................................................................ 6 

11.3.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost.....................................................................7 

11.3.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings.....................................................8 

11.3.2.3 Discount Factor .......................................................................................9 

11.3.2.4 Present Value of Costs ............................................................................9 

11.3.2.5 Present Value of Savings.........................................................................9 

11.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS ...................9 

11.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary ........................ 10 

11.4.2 National Energy Savings Results.......................................................................... 10 

11.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings .................................................................................... 11 

11.4.4 Net Present Value Results..................................................................................... 12 

REFERENCE.................................................................................................................................14 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 11.2.1 Average Annual Unit Energy Consumption............................................................4 

Table 11.2.2 Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Unit Energy Consumption ...........................4 

Table 11.2.3 Marginal Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ...........................................................5 

Table 11.3.1 Average Total Installed Cost Per Unit.....................................................................7 

Table 11.3.2 Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost per Unit ....................................7 

Table 11.3.3 Average Annual Repair Cost Per Unit.....................................................................8 

Table 11.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Inputs ........................................10 

Table 11.4.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Beverage Vending Machines (2012–2042) ...10 

Table 11.4.3 Cumulative Net Present Value Results Based on a 7-Percent Discount Rate .......13 

Table 11.4.4 Cumulative NPV Results Based on a 3-Percent Discount Rate ............................13 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 11.4.1 National Annual Costs and Savings for B-L-IO Equipment Category Trial 

Standard Level 4 ....................................................................................................12 

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CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

11.1 INTRODUCTION 

This chapter describes the method for estimating the magnitude and net present value to 

consumers of future national energy savings (NES) from proposed trial standard levels (TSLs) 

for beverage vending machine equipment. Results described in this chapter include (1) national 

energy consumption and savings; (2) monetary value of energy savings to the nation resulting 

from new energy conservation standards; (3) increased total installed costs (and associated repair 

and maintenance costs) to the nation because of new energy conservation standards; and (4) the 

net present value (NPV) of savings (i.e., the difference between monetary value of savings and 

increased total costs). 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has determined both the NPV and NES for all of the 

TSLs considered for the two equipment classes of beverage vending machine equipment examined. 

Up to seven TSLs above the baseline level are being considered for each equipment class. 

DOE performed all calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (NES spreadsheet) 

accessible at www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/ 

beverage_machines.html. Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are discussed in 

Appendix G of the TSD; a more detailed set of results is available in Appendix H of the TSD. 

The calculations were performed for two equipment classes (A and B) and up to three size 

categories, as described in chapter 10 of the TSD. The important features of national energy 

consumption of beverage vending machine equipment include: 

1.	 shipments of each equipment category; 

2.	 existing stock of each equipment category; 

3.	 national average electricity consumption for each equipment category; and 

4.	 site-to-source conversion factor to translate electricity consumption at the site of use into 

the amount of electricity that must be generated at the power plant (source) and then 

transmitted to the site where it is consumed. 

Chapter 10 provides a detailed description of the shipments analysis model that DOE used to 

forecast future purchases of beverage vending machine equipment. 

Voluntary energy efficiency programs may increase the share of energy-efficient 

equipment prior to the implementation date of any new energy conservation standards. At the 

advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANOPR) stage, DOE received information from 

industry identifying and partially quantifying the likely impact of the ENERGY STAR Tier 1 

and ENERGY STAR Tier 2 levels (see www.energystar.gov) on the national mix of beverage 

vending machine equipment efficiencies. Consequently, DOE explicitly incorporated the impact 

of this market-based voluntary energy efficiency program into the shipment forecasts by 

efficiency level. 

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11.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

11.2.1 NES Definition 

DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between two scenarios: a base case 

(without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES 

correspond to NES (i.e., annual national energy consumption [AEC] with standards is less than 

annual national energy consumption in the base case; see Eq. 11.1). 

NESt = AECbase – AECstandard Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..1 

Where: 

NESt = national annual energy savings in year t, (kWh/year) 

AECbase = total annual energy consumption, base case (kWh/year) 

AECstandard = total annual energy consumption under the standards case (kWh/year). 

Cumulative NES (NEScum) is the sum over a defined time period (t) from the 

implementation of an energy conservation standard (assumed to be in 2012) forward 30 years to 

2042 (from 2012–2042) of the annual NES (Eq. 11.2). Savings occur in both 2012 and 2042. 

NES cum = ∑t NES t Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..2 

Where: 

NEScum = cumulative national annual energy savings (kWh/year). 

DOE calculated the AEC by multiplying the number or stock of units of beverage 

vending machine equipment (by vintage v and equipment category E) by the unit energy 

consumption (also by vintage) as shown by equation 11.3 and 11.4. 

AECE = (STOCKVE  UECVE)  src_convtEq. Error! No text of specified style in document..3 

AEC = ∑E AECE Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..4 

Where: 

AECE = annual national energy consumption each year in quadrillion Btus (quads) in 

equipment category E summed over vintages V of beverage vending machine 

equipment stock STOCKVE, 

AEC = annual national energy consumption each year in quads summed over equipment 

categories of beverage vending machine equipment stock, 

NES = annual NES (quads), 

STOCKVE = stock of beverage vending machine equipment (millions of units) of vintage V and 

equipment category E surviving in year t for which DOE calculated annual energy 

consumption. Vintages range from 1 year to approximately 15 years, a function of 

an assumed 10-year average lifetime of the beverage vending machine equipment, 

UECVE = annual unit energy consumption per beverage vending machine unit (kWh/year), 

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src_convt = time-dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy (kWh) to source 

energy (quads) (Btu/kWh), 

V = year in which beverage vending machine equipment was purchased as new, 

E = equipment category, and 

t = year in the forecast (e.g., 2012–2042). 

The stock of beverage vending machine equipment is dependent on annual shipments and 

the lifetime of the equipment. DOE believes that the shipment projections under the standards 

cases could be lower than those in the base-case projection because the higher installed costs 

would cause some customers to forego new equipment purchases. However, based on available 

information, DOE did not include this effect in its analysis. For the final rule, the total shipments 

projections are the same in both the base case and standards cases. 

11.2.2 National Energy Savings Inputs 

The inputs for the determination of NES are listed below: 

 annual unit energy consumption (section 11.2.2.1); 

 shipments (section 11.2.2.2); 

 equipment stock (section 11.2.2.3); 

 national annual energy consumption (section 11.2.2.4); and 

 site-to-source conversion factor (section 11.2.2.5). 

11.2.2.1 Annual Unit Energy Consumption 

The annual unit energy consumption (UEC) is the site energy consumed by a beverage 

vending machine per year. The annual UEC is directly related to the energy efficiency of the 

unit. Thus, knowing the energy efficiency of a beverage vending machine determines the 

corresponding annual UEC. As described below, DOE determined annual forecasted shipmentweighted average beverage vending machine equipment efficiencies that, in turn, enabled a 

determination of shipment-weighted annual UEC values. 

Because no published data have been found on the market shares of the various 

equipment classes of beverage vending machine equipment by TSL, DOE sought industry input 

on the based shipment-weighted average efficiency trends for beverage vending machine 

equipment. Industry responses indicated that all shipments of new beverage vending machine 

equipment to major bottlers since 2004 meet ENERGY STAR Tier 1 levels (equal to efficiency 

Level 1 or TSL 1). DOE interpreted these comments to mean that about 90 percent of the current 

market shipments are at efficiency Level 1, and the remainder was assumed to be at efficiency 

Level 0. Moreover, industry responses indicated that for major bottlers and distributors, all new 

equipment in 2012 and beyond would meet ENERGY STAR Tier 2 levels (equal to TSL 2 for 

equipment Class A and TSL 3 for equipment Class B). This would be about 90 percent of the 

market. The remainder was assumed to be at TSL 1. DOE extrapolated future trends of beverage 

vending machine equipment efficiency both for this base-case scenario (i.e., without new 

standards) and various standards-case scenarios (i.e., with new standards). The difference in 

equipment efficiency between the base case and standards cases was the basis for determining 

the reduction in annual UEC that could result from new energy conservation standards. 

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To project changes in weighted average efficiency levels at standards above baseline 

efficiency level 1 (ENERGY STAR Tier 1), DOE assumed that market shares above the 

minimum permitted efficiency level would be reassigned to the new minimum level. This “rollup” scenario for the shipments is similar to what is used in the manufacturer impact analysis 

(chapter 13 of the (TSD). For example, if the TSL 4 were imposed as the new standard in 2012 

on A (Class A equipment)-L (large size)-IN (indoor) equipment category, then the market shares 

for TSLs 1–3 would be assigned to TSL 4, which would result in a total market share of 100 

percent (i.e., 10 percent + 90 percent + 0 percent) from TSLs 1–3 respectively, beginning in 

2012. The market shares for TSLs 5, 6 and 7 would not be affected, since the market already has 

a choice of equipment at TSL 5 and above also available. It was assumed that the energy 

conservation standards would not affect the relative attractiveness of equipment with efficiencies 

higher than the standards. 

As stated earlier, annual UEC values are tied directly to the efficiency of the equipment. 

Table 11.2.1 provides weighted-average annual energy consumption values for specific TSLs for 

all three sizes of both equipment classes. 

Table 11.2.1 Average Annual Unit Energy Consumption 

Equipment TSL 

Category* kWh/yr 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 2,267 2,099 1,916 1,785 1,679 1,610 1,438 

A-M-IN 2,011 1,916 1,734 1,529 1,442 1,383 1,252 

A-S-IN 1,924 1,734 1,551 1,442 1,361 1,307 1,186 

B-L-IO 1,890 1,842 1,760 1,746 1,561 1,526 NA** 

B-M-IO 1,799 1,731 1,658 1,645 1,463 1,431 NA 

B-S-IO 1,606 1,505 1,505 1,495 1,313 1,285 NA *

 A=Class A equipment, B=Class B equipment, L=large size, M=medium size, S=small size, IN=indoor, IO=indooroutdoor.
 ** Not applicable. There is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment. 

For the annual shipment-weighted TSLs specified in the base case and standards cases, 

DOE assigned the appropriate annual UEC values shown in Table 11.2.2. For each equipment 

category, the value shown for a given TSL is the efficiency-weighted average annual UEC, after 

taking into account the non-availability of products at efficiency levels below the TSL shown. 

Table 11.2.2 Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Unit Energy Consumption 

Equipment TSL 

Category kWh/yr 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 2,267 2,099 1,916 1,785 1,679 1,610 1,438 

A-M-IN 2,011 1,916 1,734 1,529 1,442 1,383 1,252 

A-S-IN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

B-L-IO 1,847 1,842 1,760 1,746 1,561 1,526 NA* 

B-M-IO 1,738 1,731 1,658 1,645 1,463 1,431 NA 

B-S-IO 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA *

 Not applicable. There is no Class A or Class B small-size equipment shipped in the scenario. 

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11.2.2.2 Shipments 

DOE forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases (see chapter 10 of the 

TSD). 

11.2.2.3 Equipment Stock 

The beverage vending machine stock in a given year is the total units of beverage 

vending machine equipment shipped from earlier years that survive in the given year. The NES 

spreadsheet model keeps track of the total number of beverage vending machine units shipped 

each year. For purposes of the NES and NPV analyses, DOE assumes that retirements follow a 

Weibull distribution with a 10-year average lifetime. Retirements for any given vintage build 

quickly after about year 5 to about 26 percent per year by year 11, then decrease rapidly to less 

than 1 percent per year by year 14. Retired units are replaced but only to the extent of 190,000 

units per year and only until 2042. For units shipped in 2042, no units are assumed to remain at 

the end of 2057. 

11.2.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption 

The national annual energy consumption is the product of the annual unit energy 

consumption and the number of beverage vending machine units of each category in each 

vintage. This approach accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. Eq. 11.4 was used for 

determining the national annual energy consumption of beverage vending machine equipment. 

In determining national annual energy consumption, DOE initially calculated the annual 

energy consumption at a site (i.e., electricity in kWh consumed by a beverage vending machine 

unit). DOE then calculated primary energy consumption from site energy consumption by 

applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, 

and distribution of electricity. 

11.2.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factor 

The site-to-source conversion factor, which accounts for losses in electricity generation, 

transmission, and distribution, is used to convert site energy consumption, expressed in kWh, 

into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads. DOE used annual site-to-source 

conversion factors based on U.S. marginal values for the commercial sector, calculated as shown 

in Appendix H. As shown in Table 11.2.3, the marginal conversion factors vary over time 

because of projected changes in electricity generation sources (i.e., the power plant types 

projected to provide electricity to the United States). 

Table 11.2.3 Marginal Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

Year Site-to-Source Year Site-to-Source Year Site-to-Source 

Conversion Factor Conversion Factor Conversion Factor 

Btu/kWh Btu/kWh Btu/kWh 

2012 8,715 2018 8,693 2024 8,335 

2013 8,792 2019 8,783 2025 8,286 

2014 9,577 2020 9,000 2026 8,088 

2015 8,999 2021 8,971 2027 7,835 

2016 8,889 2022 8,822 2028 7,528 

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2017 8,587 2023 8,472 2029 7,443 

2030–2057 7,582 

Source: Appendix I of the TSD. 

11.3 NET PRESENT VALUE 

11.3.1 Net Present Value Definition 

The net present value (NPV) is the value in the present of a time series of costs and 

savings. The NPV is given by Eq. 11.5: 

NPV = PVS – PVC Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..5 

Where: 

PVS = present value of operating cost savings (including electricity, repair, and 

maintenance costs ($)), and 

PVC = present value of increased total installed costs (including equipment and 

installation ($)). 

The PVS and PVC are determined using Eqs. 11.6 and 11.7: 

PVS = ∑ OCS t x DF t Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..6

 PVC =∑ TIC t x DF t Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..7 

Where: 

OCS = total annual operating cost savings ($), 

TIC = total annual installed cost increases ($), 

DF = discount factor, and 

t = year for which PVS and PVC are determined. 

DOE determined the PVC for each year, from the effective date of the standard (2012) to 

2057, discounted for the NOPR analysis, to 2009. The PVS was determined for each year, from 

the effective date of the standard (2012) to the year when the last units purchased in 2042 retire 

(assumed to be in 2057). DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards 

case and a base case. DOE calculated a DF from the discount rate and number of years between 

the “present” (i.e., 2009, the reference year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in 

which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings. 

11.3.2 Net Present Value Inputs 

The inputs to the NPV calculation are listed below: 

 total annual installed cost (section 11.3.2.1); 

 total annual operating cost savings (11.3.2.2); 

 discount factor (section 11.3.2.3); 

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 present value of costs (section 11.3.2.4); and 

 present value of savings (section 11.3.2.5). 

11.3.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost 

The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit 

total installed cost (TIC, difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the 

shipments forecasted in both the base case and the standards case. TIC includes both the 

equipment cost and the installation price. DOE based average equipment costs on average 

manufacturer prices (see chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses) multiplied by 

average overall markup values (chapter 8). DOE based average installation prices on nationally 

representative values for each equipment class and size category (chapter 8). Table 11.3.1 shows 

the resulting average total installed costs per unit for each of the beverage vending machine 

equipment categories that TSL analyzed. 

Table 11.3.1 Average Total Installed Cost Per Unit 

Equipment TSL 

Category 2008$ 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 2,886 2,928 2,973 3,006 3,039 3,074 4,420 

A-M-IN 2,674 2,684 2,746 2,794 2,827 2,861 3,982 

A-S-IN 2,244 2,292 2,338 2,365 2,393 2,423 3,433 

B-L-IO 2,141 2,160 2,199 2,211 2,675 3,945 NA* 

B-M-IO 2,069 2,092 2,131 2,144 2,607 3,730 NA 

B-S-IO 1,846 1,898 1,898 1,911 2,374 3,350 NA *

 Not applicable. There is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment. 

As discussed earlier in section 11.2.2.1, DOE developed base case and standards case 

energy-efficiency trends. DOE based its standards-case forecasts (i.e., forecasts of efficiency 

trends after standards take effect) on the use of a roll-up efficiency scenario and parallel growth 

trend. For both the base case and standards case energy-efficiency trends, DOE calculated annual 

shipment-weighted average efficiencies. Associated with each annual shipment-weighted 

average efficiency value, DOE assigned a total installed cost, based on the relationship between 

efficiency and TIC. DOE based the relationship between efficiency and TIC for each beverage 

vending machine equipment category on the data in Table 11.3.1. As shown in Table 11.3.2, 

DOE estimated the shipment-weighted installed cost. DOE determined forecasted average 

shipments-weighted TIC based on the annual shipments by TSL. 

Table 11.3.2 Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost per Unit 

Equipment TSL 

Category 2008$ 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 2,886 2,928 2,973 3,006 3,039 3,074 4,420 

A-M-IN 2,674 2,684 2,746 2,794 2,827 2,861 3,982 

A-S-IN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

B-L-IO 2,158 2,160 2,199 2,211 2,675 3,945 NA* 

B-M-IO 2,090 2,092 2,131 2,144 2,607 3,730 NA 

B-S-IO 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA *

 Not applicable: there is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment, and there is no Class A or Class B small-size equipment 

shipped in the scenario. 

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11.3.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

The annual operating cost savings to the nation are equal to the change in the annual 

operating costs (i.e., difference between the base case and the standards case) per unit multiplied 

by the shipments forecasted in both the base case and the standards case. The annual operating 

cost includes electricity, repair, and maintenance costs. 

Annual Electricity Cost Savings. As described in chapter 8, DOE calculated annual 

electricity costs based on average state-level commercial electricity prices. To calculate annual 

energy cost savings for a particular equipment category in a given year, DOE first calculated the 

annual energy costs in each forecast year at each TSL by multiplying the shipment-weighted 

average energy consumption at each TSL from Table 11.2.2 by the units of equipment stock in 

the equipment category in each year, and then multiplying the energy consumption by the salesweighted national average electricity prices for the four business types described in chapter 8. To 

determine energy savings, the national energy costs at TSL 1–7 (equipment Class A) or TSL 1–6 

(equipment Class B) were then subtracted from the national energy costs at the baseline level. 

Because projections of the stock of beverage vending machine equipment (expressed in units 

shipped) are the primary driver used to estimate future beverage vending machine equipment 

shipments, DOE calculated the national energy cost on a per-unit basis. 

Annual Repair Costs. DOE based average annual repair costs on the value of the 

beverage vending machine equipment (chapter 8). Table 11.3.3 shows the average per-unit repair 

costs for the equipment categories of beverage vending machine equipment. The NES 

spreadsheet has the capability to allow repair costs to differ by the price of the beverage vending 

machine equipment and, therefore, by TSL. For the purposes of this NOPR analysis, DOE 

assumed that the repair costs would increase for each equipment category as the manufacturer’s 

price increases (Table 11.3.3). 

Table 11.3.3 Average Annual Repair Cost Per Unit 

Equipment TSL 

Category 2008$ 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 131 133 135 137 138 140 205 

A-M-IN 132 133 136 139 140 142 201 

A-S-IN 132 135 138 140 141 143 207 

B-L-IO 131 132 135 136 166 250 NA* 

B-M-IO 131 133 135 136 168 245 NA 

B-S-IO 131 135 135 136 172 248 NA *

 Not applicable. There is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment. 

Annual Maintenance Costs. DOE was unable to locate any data on annual preventive 

maintenance cost (chapter 8, section 8.2.3.4), but annual maintenance is believed to be a 

relatively straightforward process. A weighted average annual value of $146 per unit was 

assigned to all equipment because the maintenance procedures are the same for all sizes and 

TSLs of beverage vending machines. 

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11.3.2.3 Discount Factor 

DOE determined present value of monetary values in future years using the DF, which is 

described by Eq. 11.8: 

DF = 1/(1+r)(y - yp) Eq. Error! No text of specified style in document..8 

Where: 

r = discount rate (%),
 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yp = year in which the present value is being determined. 

DOE estimated national impacts with 3- and 7-percent real discount rates as the average 

real rate of return on private investment in the U.S. economy. These discount rates are used in 

accordance with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance to Federal agencies on the 

development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), and section E, 

Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs, therein. DOE defined the present year as 2009. 

11.3.2.4 Present Value of Costs 

The present value of increased installed costs is the annual installed cost increase in each 

year (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present, 

and then summed for the time period over which DOE is considering the installation of beverage 

vending machine equipment (i.e., from the effective date of the standards (2012) to 2042). 

The increase in TIC refers to both equipment cost and installation cost associated with the 

higher energy efficiency of beverage vending machine units purchased in the standards case 

compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual installed costs as the difference in TIC for new 

equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the number of shipments in the standards case. 

11.3.2.5 Present Value of Savings 

The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (i.e., the 

difference between the base case and standards case) discounted to 2009 and then summed over the 

period from the effective date (2012) to the time when the last unit installed in 2042 is retired from 

service (2057). Savings are decreases in operating costs (including electricity, repair, and 

maintenance) associated with the higher energy efficiency of beverage vending machine units 

purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings 

equals the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage surviving in a particular 

year. Equipment consumes energy over its entire lifetime, and for units purchased in 2042, the 

present value of savings includes energy consumed until the unit is retired from service (2057). 

11.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS 

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV for various TSLs. 

The inputs to the NES spreadsheet are presented above in sections 11.2.2 (NES Inputs) and 

11.3.2 (NPV Inputs). 

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11.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary 

Table 11.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. For each input, a brief 

description of the data source is given. 

Table 11.4.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Inputs 

Input Data Description 

Shipments 

Effective Date of Standard 

Base-Case Efficiencies 

Beverage Vending Machine ShipmentWeighted TSLs 

Annual UEC 

TIC per Unit 

Repair Cost per Unit 

Maintenance Cost per Unit 

Escalation of Electricity Prices 

Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion 

Discount Rate 

Present Year 

Annual shipments from shipments model (TSD chapter 10). 

2012 

Annual shipment-weighted efficiencies based on historical beverage 

vending machine weighted-efficiency values. 

Standards case annual shipment-weighted market shares remain 

constant for base case and each TSL. 

Annual weighted-average values are a function of TSL. (Established 

from the Engineering Analysis, TSD chapter 5). 

Annual weighted-average values are a function of TSL. (Established 

from the life-cycle cost analysis, TSD chapter 8). 

Annual weighted-average values increase with manufacturer’s cost 

level. (Established from the life-cycle cost analysis, TSD chapter 8). 

Annual weighted-average value equals $146 by assumption. 

April 2009 update to the 2009 EIA Annual Energy Outlook forecasts 

(to 2030) and extrapolation for beyond 2030 (see the life-cycle cost 

analysis, TSD chapter 8). 

Conversion varies yearly and is generated by DOE-EIA’s NEMS* 

program (a time series conversion factor; includes electric generation, 

transmission, and distribution losses). 

3 and 7 percent real. 

Future costs are discounted to 2009. *

 TSD chapter 14, Utility Impact Analysis, and TSD chapter 16, Environmental Assessment, provide more detail on 

NEMS. 

11.4.2 National Energy Savings Results 

This section provides NES results for each TSL considered for the equipment categories 

of beverage vending machines analyzed. Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as 

primary energy savings in quads. Inputs to the NES spreadsheet model are based on weightedaverage values, yielding results that are discrete point values rather than a distribution of values 

as in the LCC analysis. 

Table 11.4.2 shows the NES results for the TSLs analyzed for each equipment category 

of beverage vending machines. DOE based all the results on electricity price forecasts from the 

AEO2009 Reference Case.1 

Table 11.4.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Beverage Vending Machines (2012– 

2042) 

Equipment TSL 

Category quad 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 0.001 0.013 0.026 0.035 0.042 0.047 0.058 

A-M-IN 0.005 0.019 0.044 0.073 0.085 0.093 0.111 

A-S-IN 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

B-L-IO 0.001 0.001 0.007 0.008 0.021 0.023 NA* 

B-M-IO 0.002 0.003 0.013 0.015 0.040 0.045 NA 

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B-S-IO 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NA 

*

 Not applicable: there is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment, and there is no Class A or Class B small-size equipment 

shipped in the scenario. 

11.4.3 Annual Costs and Savings 

As a prelude to providing the NPVs for each TSL in each equipment category, this 

section presents the annual equipment cost (or TIC) increases and annual operating cost savings 

at the national level. 

Figure 11.4.1 shows the changes over time of the non-discounted annual equipment price 

increases and the non-discounted operating cost savings at the TSL 4 for B-L-IO equipment. The 

total net annual impact is the discounted value of the difference between annual equipment 

purchases and annual operating costs at a 7-percent discount rate. Appendix H shows comparable 

figures for other TSLs and other equipment categories. Each figure also shows the net annual 

impact, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual 

equipment price change is the increase in equipment price for equipment purchased each year 

during 2012–2042. The annual operating savings is the savings in operating costs for equipment 

purchased and that have not been retired for each year from 2012–2057. DOE determined the 

annual costs and savings presented in each figure based on the April 2009 update to the 

AEO2009 Reference Case. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted 

savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs. 

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Trial Standard Level 

TSL 4 

Efficiency Level 

Level 5 

Net Savings 

2012 2016 2020 2024 20282032 2036 2040 2044 2048 20522056 2060 

Year 

Undiscounted Total Annual Operating Savings 

Undiscounted Annual Equipment Purchase Savings 

Discounted Total Net Annual Impact 

-0.0020 

-0.0015 

-0.0010 

-0.0005 

0.0000 

0.0005 

0.0010 

0.0015 

0.0020 

0.0025 

0.0030 

Billion 2008$ 

Figure 11.4.1 National Annual Costs and Savings for B-L-IO Equipment Category Trial 

Standard Level 4 

Figure 11.4.1 initially shows smaller annual operating cost savings compared to the 

increased equipment price costs (shown on the figure as negative purchase savings). For all years 

through 2042, operating cost savings increase with time, as more equipment that meets the TSL 

comprises the beverage vending machine stock. 

11.4.4 Net Present Value Results 

The following section provides NPV results for the TSLs considered for the equipment 

categories of beverage vending machines. Results are cumulative and are shown as the 

discounted value of these savings in dollar terms. The inputs to the NES spreadsheet model are 

based on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values rather than a 

distribution of values as in the LCC analysis. The present value of increased TICs is the TIC 

increase (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to 2009, and 

then summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of standards (i.e., from the 

effective date of the standards (2012) to 2057). 

Savings are decreases in operating costs (including electricity, repair, and maintenance) 

associated with the higher energy efficiency of beverage vending machines purchased in the 

standards case compared to the base case. Total operating cost savings are the savings per unit 

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EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 74
 

 

 

 

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) surviving in a 

particular year. Beverage vending machines consume energy and must be maintained over their 

entire lifetime. For units purchased in 2042, the operating cost includes energy consumed and 

maintenance and repair costs incurred until the last unit is retired from service in 2057. 

Table 11.4.3 shows the NPV results for the TSLs considered for beverage vending 

machines based upon a 7 percent discount rate. DOE based all results on electricity price 

forecasts from the AEO2009 Reference Case. Detailed results showing the breakdown of the 

NPV into national equipment costs and national operating costs are provided in Appendix H. 

Table 11.4.3 Cumulative Net Present Value Results Based on a 7-Percent Discount Rate 

Equipment TSL 

Category billion 2008$ 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 0.003 0.022 0.042 0.057 0.065 0.065 (0.530)* 

A-M-IN 0.012 0.046 0.070 0.118 0.126 0.120 (0.918) 

A-S-IN 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

B-L-IO 0.002 0.002 0.000 (0.003) (0.201) (0.851) NA** 

B-M-IO 0.003 0.004 (0.004) (0.011) (0.420) (1.601) NA 

B-S-IO 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NA *

 Values in parentheses indicate negative NPV.

** Not applicable: there is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment, and there is no Class A or Class B small-size
 

equipment shipped in the scenario. 

Table 11.4.4 provides the NPV results based on the 3-percent discount rate and electricity 

price forecasts from the AEO2009 Reference Case. As with the NPV results based on a 7-percent 

discount rate, detailed results showing the breakdown of the NPV into national equipment costs 

and national operating costs based on a 3-percent discount rate are provided in Appendix H of 

the TSD. 

Table 11.4.4 Cumulative NPV Results Based on a 3-Percent Discount Rate 

Equipment TSL 

Category billion 2008$ 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

A-L-IN 0.007 0.051 0.100 0.135 0.157 0.161 (0.904)* 

A-M-IN 0.027 0.101 0.168 0.281 0.307 0.304 (1.562) 

A-S-IN 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

B-L-IO 0.004 0.004 0.007 0.001 (0.349) (1.536) NA** 

B-M-IO 0.007 0.009 0.004 (0.007) (0.734) (2.892) NA 

B-S-IO 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NA *

 Values in parentheses indicate negative NPV.

** Not applicable: there is no TSL 7 for Class B equipment, and there is no Class A or Class B small-size 

equipment shipped in the scenario. 

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REFERENCE 

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual Energy 

Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook. . EIA, Washington, D.C., 

SR/OIAF/2009-03. 

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