DOE/EIA-0484(2007)

International

Energy Outlook

2007

May 2007

Energy Information Administration

Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and

analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be

attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or

reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization.

This publication is on the WEB at:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
Contacts

The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions

concerning the contents of the report should be referred

to John J. Conti, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis

and Forecasting (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222),

or Glen E. Sweetnam, Director, International, Economic,

and Greenhouse Gases Division (glen.sweetnam@eia.

doe.gov, 202-586-2188). Specific questions about the

report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202-586-

1041) or the following analysts:

World Energy and Economic Outlook. . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041)

Macroeconomic Assumptions. . . . . . Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294)

World GDP: Potential Impacts

of High and Low Oil Prices . . . . . . . . Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector:

Transportation Energy Use . . . . . . . . Bhima Sastri (bhima.sastri@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2854)

China’s Transportation Sector. . . . . . Randal Cook (randall.cook@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1395)

Barry Kapilow-Cohen (bcohen@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-5359)

Residential Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815)

Commercial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

Industrial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . Brian Unruh (brian.unruh@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1344)

World Petroleum and Other

Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Staub (john.staub@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-6344)

Reassessing the Potential for

Oil Production in Mexico . . . . . . . . . . Lauren Mayne (lauren.mayne@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-3005)

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Justine Barden (justine.barden@eia.doe.gov 202-586-3508)

Phyllis Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-9592)

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2136)

Diane Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2415)

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041)

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide

Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Perry Lindstrom (perry.lindstrom@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-0934)

ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

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Contents

Page

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 iii

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1. World Energy and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Outlook for World Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Alternative World Oil Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Trends in Energy Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Transportation Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Residential Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Commercial Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3. Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

World Liquids Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

World Oil Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

World Liquids Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Oil Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

4. Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

World Natural Gas Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

World Natural Gas Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5. Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

World Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

World Coal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

World Coal Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

World Coal Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

6. Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Electricity Supply by Energy Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Regional Electricity Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

7. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Alternative World Oil Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Appendixes

Tables

Figures

iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1980-2030. . . 10

3. World Oil Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

4. World Oil Reserves: Ten Largest Gains and Losses, 2000-2007, by Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

5. World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production and Reserve-To-Production Ratios by Country, 2005. . . . 38

6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

7. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

8. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

9. World Coal Production by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

10. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2005, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

12. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

A. Reference Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

D. High World Oil Price Case Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

E. Low World Oil Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

F. Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

G. Projections of Petroleum and Other Liquids Production in Three Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

H. Reference Case Projections for Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

I. Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2006 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

J. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

K. Regional Definitions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2. Average Annual Growth in Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and End-Use Sector, 2004-2030. . . . . . 1

3. Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

4. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

5. World Liquids Production, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

7. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

9. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

10. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

11. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

12. World Coal Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

13. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

14. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

15. Comparison of IEO2006 and IEO2007 Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and World GDP

Growth Rates, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

16. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

17. World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

18. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

19. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

20. World Liquids Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

21. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

22. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

23. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies of

Europe and Eurasia, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

24. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

25. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

26. OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Figures (Continued)

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 v

27. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . 24

28. OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

29. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . 25

30. OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

31. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . 27

32. World Unconventional Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

33. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

34. World Liquids Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

35. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

36. OPEC and Non-OPEC Conventional and Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

37. Cumulative World Production of Crude Oil and Lease Condensates in the Reference Case, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . 35

38. World Crude Oil Reserves, 1980-2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

39. World Proved Oil Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

40. World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

41. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

42. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, 1980-2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

43. World Natural Gas Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

44. World Natural Gas Resources by Geographic Region, 2006-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

45. World Natural Gas Production by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

46. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

47. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

48. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Europe, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

49. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia by Country, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

50. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

51. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

52. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, Africa, and the Middle East, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . 47

53. Export Share of Natural Gas Production in the Middle East and Africa, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

54. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

55. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

56. OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

57. Non-OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

58. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

59. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

60. World Electric Power Generation, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

61. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

62. Average Annual Change in End-Use Sector Electricity Demand, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

63. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

64. Annual Growth in Electricity Generation by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

65. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

66. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

67. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Europe by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

68. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

69. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

70. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

71. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

72. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

73. Net Electricity Generation in the Middle East by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

74. Net Electricity Generation in Africa by Fuel, 2004 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

75. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

76. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

77. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

78. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

79. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the OECD Economies, 2004-2030 . . 75

80. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the

Non-OECD Economies, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Figures (Continued)

vi Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

84. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

85. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2004 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

88. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Preface

This report presents international energy projections through 2030,

prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks

for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.

The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents

an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy

markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in

IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA’s

Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System

(NEMS). IEO2007 is provided as a service to energy

managers and analysts, both in government and in the

private sector. The projections are used by international

agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are

published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).

Projections in IEO2007 are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD).

There are three basic country groupings in the OECD:

North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico);

OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea,

and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions). Non-OECD is divided into

five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe

and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and

Central and South America. Russia is represented in

non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and India are

represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is represented in Central and South America.

IEO2007 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an

important role in some developing countries, are not

included in the estimates. The IEO2007 projections are

based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on

January 1, 2007. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not

reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation for which the implementing mechanisms have not

yet been announced.

The report begins with a review of world trends in

energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2007 projections, along

with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The

time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and

extends to 2004, and the projections extend to 2030. High

economic growth and low economic growth cases were

developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for

the energy forecast. The two cases consider higher and

lower growth paths for regional gross domestic product

(GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. New to

this report, IEO2007 also includes a high world oil price

case and, alternatively, a low world oil price case. The

resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated

with international energy projections in general—are

discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy and Economic

Outlook.”

Regional projections of end-use energy consumption in

the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors are presented in Chapter 2, which also

reviews worldwide forecasts for end-use sector energy

consumption. Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel—liquids (primarily petroleum), natural gas,

and coal—are presented in Chapters 3, 4, and 5, along

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 vii

Objectives of the IEO2007 Projections

The projections in IEO2007 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific

assumptions and methodologies used. The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can

be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not

propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes.

Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and

consumer behavior. The projections are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures,

and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in

the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well

understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource

availability are necessarily uncertain.
with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a

worldwide basis. Chapter 6 discusses the projections for

world electricity markets—including nuclear power,

hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy

resources—and presents forecasts of world installed

generating capacity. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses the

outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions.

Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2007

reference case projections of world energy consumption,

GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide emissions, and regional population growth. Summary tables

of projections for the high and low economic growth

cases are provided in Appendixes B and C, respectively,

and high and low world oil price projections are

provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference case projections of delivered energy consumption

by end-use sector and region are presented in Appendix

F. Appendix G contains summary tables of projections

for world liquids production in all cases. Appendix H

contains summary tables of reference case projections

for installed electric power capacity by fuel and regional

electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set

of comparisons of projections from the International

Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2006 with the

IEO2007 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2007 and

IEO2006 projections are also presented in Appendix I.

Appendix J describes the models used to generate the

IEO2007 projections, and Appendix K defines the

regional designations included in the report.

viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
List of Acronyms

AEO2007 Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Btu British thermal unit

CAFE corporate average fuel economy

EIA Energy Information Administration

EU European Union

GDP gross domestic product

IEA International Energy Agency

IEO2007 International Energy Outlook 2007

LNG liquefied natural gas

MY model year

NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NHDP National Highways Development Project (India)

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Pemex Petróleos Mexicanos

r/p reserve-to-production ratio

SAGE System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets

SEC Securities and Exchange Commission (U.S.)

STEO Short-Term Energy Outlook

UAE United Arab Emirates

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

WEPS+ World Energy Projections Plus

WPPI Wind Power Production Incentive (Canada)

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 ix

Highlights

World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent

from 2004 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases

by 95 percent, compared with an increase of 24 percent in the OECD countries.

In the IEO2007 reference case—which reflects a scenario

where current laws and policies remain unchanged

throughout the projection period—world marketed

energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent

over the 2004 to 2030 period. Total world energy use

rises from 447 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in

2004 to 559 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 702 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). Global energy demand

grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural

gas prices that are projected to persist into the mid-term

outlook.

The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2004 to

2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD

nations). Total non-OECD energy demand increases by

95 percent in the IEO2007 reference case projection, as

compared with an increase of 24 percent in OECD

energy use. The robust growth in demand among the

non-OECD nations is largely the result of strong projected economic growth. In all the non-OECD regions

combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP in

purchasing power parity terms—increases by 5.3 percent per year on average, as compared with an average

of 2.5 percent per year for the OECD economies.

Trends in end-use sector energy consumption can vary

widely, according to the level and pace of economic

development in a given region. In the OECD region,

where energy markets generally are well established,

demand for delivered energy in each of the end-use sectors grows more slowly than in the non-OECD nations

(Figure 2). For the industrial sector, energy-intensive

industries continue to expand more rapidly in the

non-OECD countries, where investors are attracted by

lower costs and fewer environmental constraints, than

in the OECD countries. In 1980, the OECD accounted for

52 percent of the world’s industrial sector energy use. In

2004 the OECD share had fallen to 44 percent, and it is

projected to decline to 33 percent in 2030, as non-OECD

industrial energy use outpaces that in the OECD (Figure

3). For the OECD countries, industrial sector energy use

is projected to grow at an average rate of 0.6 percent per

year from 2004 to 2030; for the non-OECD countries, the

projected increase averages 2.5 percent per year.

As in the industrial sector, energy use in the buildings

and transportation sectors is projected to grow more

slowly in the OECD countries than in the non-OECD

countries in the IEO2007 reference case. With slow or

declining population growth in many OECD nations,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1

447

511

559

607

654

702

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

Quadrillion Btu

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption

by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

OECD Non-OECD

01234

Percent per Year

Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Figure 2. Average Annual Growth in Delivered

Energy Consumption by Region and

End-Use Sector, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
generally slow growth in energy use in the buildings

sectors is projected, averaging 0.6 percent per year in the

residential sector and 1.1 percent per year in the commercial sector from 2004 to 2030. For the non-OECD

region as a whole, strong growth in demand for energy

is projected in the buildings sectors, averaging 2.4 percent per year in the residential sector and 3.7 percent per

year in the commercial sector.

Historically, growth in transportation activity has been

linked closely to income growth, indicating a strong

relationship between per-capita GDP and passenger car

travel per capita, especially in countries with developing

economies. With robust economic growth projected for

the developing non-OECD nations, transportation sector energy use increases by an average of 2.9 percent per

year from 2004 to 2030, requiring extensive investment

in the construction of transportation infrastructure

(highways, fueling stations, airport facilities, rail systems, etc.) to support the fast-paced growth in demand.

In the OECD countries, where extensive infrastructure is

in place already and GDP is projected to grow much

more slowly, demand for transportation fuels increases

by 0.9 percent per year.

The IEO2007 reference case projects increased world

consumption of marketed energy from all sources over

the 2004 to 2030 projection period (Figure 4). Fossil fuels

(petroleum and other liquid fuels,1 natural gas, and coal)

are expected to continue supplying much of the energy

used worldwide. Liquids supply the largest share of

world energy consumption over the projection period,

but their share falls from 38 percent in 2004 to 34 percent

in 2030, largely in response to a reference case scenario

in which real world oil prices remain near the current

level through 2030. Liquids remain the dominant energy

source, given their importance in the transportation and

industrial end-use sectors; however, their share of the

world energy market in this year’s outlook is lessened in

the projection, as other fuels replace liquids where possible outside those sectors. Fossil fuel prices in the reference case also support renewed interest in expanding

the use of nuclear power and renewable energy sources

to generate electricity.

World use of petroleum and other liquids grows from 83

million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per

day in 2030 in the reference case.2 In most regions of the

world, the role of liquid fuels outside the transportation

sector continues to erode. Liquids remain the most

important fuels for transportation, because there are few

alternatives that can compete widely with petroleum-based liquid fuels. On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the total

projected increase in liquids use from 2004 to 2030, followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for

another 27 percent of the increase.

2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

72 74 76 79 82 85 91

109

125

141

156

172

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

50

100

150

200

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 3. Industrial Sector Delivered Energy

Consumption by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

Liquids

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 4. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel

Type, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1Petroleum and other liquid fuels include petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel,

coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas liquids, crude oil consumed

as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen. 2Throughout this report, liquids energy use is reported on a barrel equivalent basis, rather than a volumetric basis, because of the inclusion of biofuels (specifically, ethanol) in the liquids total. Ethanol is only two-thirds as efficient as petroleum-based motor gasoline.
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the

reference case, total supply in 2030 is projected to be 35

million barrels per day higher than the 2004 level of 83

million barrels per day. Conventional liquids production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries (OPEC) contributes about 21 million barrels per day to the total increase, and conventional liquids production in non-OPEC countries adds

another 6 million barrels per day (Figure 5). Unconventional resources (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and

gas-to-liquids) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources

are expected to become increasingly competitive. World

production of unconventional resources, which totaled

only 2.6 million barrels per day in 2004, is projected to

increase to 10.5 million barrels per day and account for 9

percent of total world liquids supply in 2030, on an oil

equivalent basis, in the IEO2007 reference case.

Natural gas consumption increases on average by 1.9

percent per year in the reference case, from a world total

of 99.6 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 129.0 trillion cubic feet

in 2015 and 163.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Rising world

oil prices after 2015 increase the demand for—and then

the price of—natural gas, as it is used to displace the use

of liquids in the industrial and electric power sectors.

Although natural gas prices vary by region, they tend to

rise as demand increases. Higher natural gas prices, in

turn, make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the

electric power sector. Among the end-use sectors, the

industrial sector remains the largest consumer of natural

gas worldwide, accounting for 43 percent of the world’s

total projected natural gas consumption in 2030.

Coal is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide in

the IEO2007 reference case projections. World coal consumption is projected to increase from 114.5 quadrillion

Btu in 2004 to 199.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030, at an average

annual rate of 2.2 percent. World coal consumption

increased sharply from 2003 to 2004, largely because of a

17-percent increase on a Btu basis in non-OECD Asia

(mainly, China and India). Coal’s share of total world

energy use is projected to increase from 26 percent in

2004 to 28 percent in 2030.

The electric power sector accounts for about two-thirds

of the world’s coal consumption throughout the projection period, and the industrial sector accounts for most

of the remainder. China’s industrial sector is projected to

account for about 78 percent of the total net increase in

industrial coal use worldwide. China has abundant coal

resources, limited reserves of oil and natural gas, and a

leading position in world steel production.

World net electricity generation grows by 85 percent in

the IEO2007 reference case, from 16,424 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 22,289 billion kilowatthours in 2015

and 30,364 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Most of the

projected increase in electricity demand is in the nonOECD nations, where electricity generation increases on

average by 3.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, as

compared with 1.3 percent per year in the OECD

nations. Coal and natural gas remain the most important

fuels for electricity generation throughout the projection

period, together accounting for 80 percent of the total

increment in world electric power generation from 2004

to 2030 in the reference case (Figure 6).

Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to

increase from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 3,619

billion kilowatthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices,

energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 3

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

25

50

75

100

125 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day

Total

OPEC Conventional

Non-OPEC Conventional

Unconventional

Figure 5. World Liquids Production, 2004-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

40

Trillion Kilowatthours

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
environmental considerations are expected to improve

the prospects for new nuclear power capacity in many

parts of the world, and a number of countries are

expected to build new nuclear power plants. In the

IEO2007 reference case, the world’s installed nuclear

capacity grows from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected

only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some older

reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced.

Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries is

projected to increase by 4.0 percent per year from 2004 to

2030. The largest increase in installed nuclear generating

capacity is expected in non-OECD Asia, where annual

increases in nuclear capacity average 6.3 percent and

account for 68 percent of the total projected increase in

nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD region as a

whole. Of the 58 gigawatts of additional installed

nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD

Asia between 2004 and 2030, 36 gigawatts is projected

for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia also is

expected to add substantial nuclear generating capacity

over the mid-term projection, increasing capacity by 20

gigawatts.

The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected

renewable energy sources is expected to continue to

expand over the projection period, increasing by 1.9 percent per year, at the same rate of growth as natural gas

consumption in the reference case. Higher fossil fuel

prices, particularly for natural gas in the electric power

sector, allow renewable energy sources to compete economically in some areas. Where they are not economically competitive with fossil fuels, renewable energy

sources may be supported by government policies and

incentives. The renewables share of total world energy

consumption is expected to rise from 7 percent in 2004 to

8 percent in 2030.

Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is

projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric

facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South

America, where several countries have hydropower

facilities either planned or under construction. Outside

of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is not

expected to grow substantially in the OECD nations,

because most hydroelectric resources in the region

already have been developed or lie far from population

centers. Instead, most of the increase in OECD renewable energy consumption is expected to be in the form of

nonhydroelectric resources, such as wind, solar, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and biomass.

In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon

dioxide—one of the most important greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere—have been increasing at a rate of about

0.5 percent annually. Because anthropogenic (humancaused) emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily

from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, energy

use has emerged at the center of the climate change

debate. World carbon dioxide emissions continue to

increase steadily in the IEO2007 reference case, from 26.9

billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in

2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030, an increase of

59 percent over the projection period.

From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the

non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, largely

because of a 17-percent increase in coal use in nonOECD Asia, while emissions from the OECD countries

grew by less than 2 percent. The result of the large

increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked

the first time in history that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries exceeded

those from the OECD countries—although by only

about 8 million metric tons (Figure 7). Further, because

the projected average annual increase in emissions from

2004 to 2030 in the non-OECD countries (2.6 percent) is

more than three times the increase projected for the

OECD countries (0.8 percent), carbon dioxide emissions

from the non-OECD countries in 2030, at 26.2 billion

metric tons, are projected to exceed those from the

OECD countries by 57 percent.

4 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

13 13 14 15 15 16 17

12 13

17

19

22

24

26

2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

Billion Metric Tons

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 7. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

by Region, 2003-2030

Sources: 2003 and 2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Chapter 1

World Energy and Economic Outlook

In the IEO2007 reference case, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected

to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030. The largest projected increase

in energy demand is for the non-OECD region.

The IEO2007 reference case—which reflects a scenario

where current laws and policies remain unchanged

throughout the projection period—projects strong

growth for worldwide energy demand from 2004 to

2030. Total world consumption of marketed energy is

projected to increase from 447 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to

559 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 702 quadrillion

Btu in 2030—a 57-percent increase over the projection

period (Table 1 and Figure 8).

The largest projected increase in energy demand is for

the non-OECD region. Generally, countries outside the

OECD3 have higher projected economic growth rates

and more rapid population growth than the OECD

nations. In the IEO2007 reference case, energy consumption in the non-OECD region is projected to grow at an

average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 2004 through

2030. In the OECD region, where national economies are

more mature and population growth is expected to be

relatively slower, energy use is projected to grow at the

much slower average rate of 0.8 percent per year over

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 5

Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Region 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Average Annual

Percent Change,

2003-2030

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

Central and South America . . . . 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

283 309

347 366 400

447

511

559

607

654

702

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2004

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0

200

400

600

800

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Consumption,

1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

3For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of February 1, 2007, throughout all the time series presented in this

publication.
the projection period. Energy use in the non-OECD

region is projected to surpass that in the OECD region by

2010, and to be 35 percent greater than the non-OECD

total in 2030 (Figure 9).

Much of the growth in energy demand among the

non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which

includes China and India. Energy demand in the

non-OECD Asia region is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2 percent per year, more than doubling over

the 2004 to 2030 period and accounting for more than 65

percent of the increase in energy use for the non-OECD

region as a whole. In 2004, energy consumption in the

countries of non-OECD Asia made up just over 48 percent of the non-OECD total; in 2030, its share is projected

to be above 56 percent (Figure 10).

Strong growth in energy demand is also projected for

the other non-OECD regions. In the reference case projections, energy consumption increases at average

annual rates of 2.4 percent in Central and South America, 2.3 percent in the Middle East and in Africa, and 1.4

percent in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia.

This chapter presents an overview of the IEO2007 outlook for energy consumption by primary energy source

and a look at the major assumptions that form the basis

for the projections that appear in the report. It includes a

discussion of the IEO2007 macroeconomic forecast in the

context of the key OECD and non-OECD regions.

As with any set of projections, there is significant uncertainty associated with the IEO2007 energy projections.

This chapter includes discussion of two sets of sensitivity cases, which vary some of the assumptions behind

the IEO2007 projections: high and low macroeconomic

growth cases and high and low world oil price cases.

These cases are intended to illustrate alternative scenarios rather than to identify any bounds on uncertainty,

which can be affected by policy and technology developments, as well as price and growth paths. Also included

is a discussion of the possible effects of future trends in

energy intensity (the relationship between energy use

and economic growth) on the reference case projections.

Outlook for World Energy

Consumption

The IEO2007 reference case projects increased world

consumption of marketed energy from all sources over

the 2004 to 2030 period. Fossil fuels continue to supply

much of the increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections. Liquids (primarily, oil

and other petroleum products) are expected to continue

to provide the largest share of world energy consumption over the projection period, but their share falls from

38 percent in 2004 to 34 percent in 2030 (Figure 11),

largely because rising world oil prices dampen the

demand for liquids after 2015.

Worldwide liquids consumption is projected to increase

from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 97 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in

2030. Liquids remain the most important fuels for transportation, because there are few alternatives that can be

expected to compete widely with petroleum-based liquids; however, the role of oil outside the transportation

sector continues to be eroded because of high world oil

prices in most regions of the world. On a global basis, the

transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the total

projected increase in liquids use between 2004 and 2030,

6 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 9. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and

Non-OECD, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

150 168

207

257

332

404

1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

Quadrillion Btu

Non-OECD Asia

Middle East

Africa

Central and South America

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

History Projections

Figure 10. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD

Economies by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for

another 27 percent of the increment in world liquids

demand.

Natural gas consumption increases by 1.9 percent per

year on average over the projection period, from about

100 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 163 trillion cubic feet in

2030. Rising world oil prices increase the demand for

natural gas, as it is used to displace the use of liquids in

the industrial and electric power sectors in many parts of

the world. Industrial uses throughout the world are projected to make up 43 percent of total natural gas use in

2030. In addition, natural gas is both a more efficient fuel

for electric power generation and less carbon intensive

than other fossil fuels, and as a result it is an attractive

energy source for the world’s power generation. It is the

world’s fastest-growing energy source for electricity

generation in the IEO2007 reference case projection,

leading to an increase in the electric power sector share

of total natural gas use worldwide, from 31 percent in

2004 to 36 percent in 2030.

Natural gas prices are likely to vary from region to

region, depending on the size of available resources and

their distance from end-use markets. In the United

States, dependence on relatively expensive domestic

supplies of unconventional natural gas and imports of

liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase over

the projection period, and projected prices in the U.S.

market thus tend to be at the high end of the range. In

Russia and the Middle East, where domestic resources

of conventional natural gas are both abundant and

readily accessible, natural gas prices are among the lowest in the world.

World coal consumption increased sharply from 2003 to

2004, largely because of a 17-percent increase on a Btu

basis in non-OECD Asia (China and India). As a result,

coal’s share of total world energy use climbed from 25

percent in 2003 to 26 percent in 2004. With oil and

natural gas prices expected to continue rising, coal is

an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample

coal resources—notwithstanding government policies

aimed at reducing coal use—and its share of world

energy consumption is projected to increase further, to

28 percent in 2030. In the IEO2007 reference case projection, coal use worldwide increases by 37 quadrillion Btu

from 2004 to 2015 and by another 48 quadrillion Btu

from 2015 to 2030. In particular, the United States,

China, and India are well-positioned to displace more

expensive fuels with coal, and together the three nations

account for 86 percent of the expected increase from

2004 to 2030 (Figure 12). Decreases in coal consumption

are projected only for OECD Europe and Japan, where

population growth is slow or declining, electricity

demand growth is slow, and natural gas and nuclear

power are likely to continue providing significant

amounts of electricity.

Worldwide, electricity generation in 2030 is projected to

total 30,364 billion kilowatthours, nearly double the

2004 total of 16,424 billion kilowatthours. The strongest

growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the

non-OECD region, averaging 3.5 percent per year in the

IEO2007 reference case (Figure 13). Robust economic

growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected

to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased

home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space

and water heating, and refrigeration and to support the

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 7

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

Liquids

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 11. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel

Type, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

Quadrillion Btu

China

United States

India

Rest of World

Figure 12. World Coal Consumption by Region,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
expansion of commercial services, including hospitals,

office buildings, and shopping malls. In the OECD

nations, where infrastructures are well established and

population growth is slower, electricity generation is

expected to grow by 1.3 percent per year on average over

the projection period.

Natural gas and coal are projected to provide larger

shares of the total energy used for electricity generation

worldwide in 2030 than they did in 2004. The natural gas

share increases from 20 percent to 24 percent and the

coal share from 41 percent to 45 percent. The relative

environmental benefits and efficiency of natural gas

make it an attractive fuel choice for generation in many

nations; however, higher oil and natural gas prices make

coal the economic choice in the United States and nonOECD Asia, where coal resources are ample.

Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to

increase from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,972

billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3,619 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices, energy

security concerns, and environmental considerations are

expected to improve the prospects for new nuclear

power capacity in many parts of the world. In the

IEO2007 reference case, the world’s total installed

nuclear capacity rises from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481

gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only for OECD Europe, where several countries

have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear

power, and some older reactors are expected to be

retired and not replaced.

Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries is

projected to increase by 4.0 percent per year from 2004 to

2030. The largest increase in installed nuclear generating

capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia, which

accounts for 68 percent of the total projected increase in

nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD region as a

whole (Figure 14). Of the 58 gigawatts of additional

installed nuclear generating capacity projected for

non-OECD Asia between 2004 and 2030, 36 gigawatts is

projected for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia

also is expected to add substantial nuclear generating

capacity over the mid-term projection, increasing capacity by 20 gigawatts. Several OECD nations with existing

nuclear programs also increase their nuclear capacity in

the IEO2007 reference case, with South Korea adding a

net 16 gigawatts, Japan 14 gigawatts, the United States

13 gigawatts, and Canada 6 gigawatts.

The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected

renewable energy sources is expected to continue to

expand over the projection period, increasing by 1.9 percent per year, at the same rate of growth as natural gas

consumption in the reference case. Higher fossil fuel

prices, particularly for natural gas in the electric power

sector, along with government policies and programs to

support renewable energy, allow renewable fuels to

compete economically. The renewable share of total

world energy use increases from 7 percent in 2004 to 8

percent in 2030.

Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is

projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric

facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South

America, where several countries have hydropower

facilities either planned or under construction. In nonOECD Asia, India has about 12,020 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity under construction, and letters of

award have been issued for the 1,000-megawatt Tehri

Pass project (scheduled for completion by 2012) and the

8 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Billion Kilowatthours

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 13. World Electric Power Generation

by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

112

134

61

15

42

5

131

114

92

72

65

8

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

Non-OECD Asia

Non-OECD Europe

and Eurasia

Other Non-OECD

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

Gigawatts

2004

2030

Figure 14. World Nuclear Generating Capacity

by Region, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
1,200-megawatt Kotlibhel-IA project [1]. China also has

a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects under

construction, including the 18,200-megawatt Three

Gorges Dam project (expected to be fully operational by

2009) and the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the

Jisha River (scheduled for completion in 2020, as part of

a 14-facility hydropower development plan) [2]. In the

non-OECD region of Central and South America, Brazil

has plans for a number of new hydropower projects that

the country hopes to complete to keep up with electricity

demand after 2010, including the 3,150-megawatt Santo

Antonio and 3,300-megawatt Jirau projects on the

Madeira River [3].

Outside of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is

not expected to grow substantially in the OECD nations,

because most hydroelectric resources in the region

already have been developed or lie far from population

centers. Instead, most of the increase in OECD renewable energy consumption is expected to be in the form of

nonhydroelectric resources, such as wind, solar, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and biomass.

World Economic Outlook

Economic growth is among the most important factors

to be considered in projecting changes in the world’s

energy consumption. In the IEO2007 projections,

assumptions about regional economic growth—measured in terms of GDP in real 2000 U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity rates—underlie the projections of

regional energy demand.

The macroeconomic framework employed for the economic growth projections reflects the interaction of

many important economic variables and underlying

relationships, both in the short term and in the medium

to long term. In the short term, households and businesses make spending decisions (the demand side)

based on current financial conditions—for example,

interest rates or the price of goods to be purchased.

In the long term, it is the ability to produce goods and

services (the supply side) that ultimately determines the

growth potential for any country’s economy. Growth

potential is influenced by population growth, labor force

participation rates, productivity growth, and capital

accumulation. In addition, for the developing economies, progress in building human and physical capital

infrastructures, establishing credible regulatory mechanisms to govern markets, and ensuring political stability

play more important roles in determining their

medium- to long-term growth potential.

Over the 2004 to 2030 period, world real GDP growth is

projected to average 4.1 percent annually in the reference case (Table 2 and Figure 15). When compared with

the IEO2006 reference case projection, the world economic growth projection in the IEO2007 reference case is

higher primarily because of more optimistic

assumptions about the growth prospects of non-OECD

countries, particularly, China and India.

The projected annual growth in world GDP over the

next 25 years is higher than the rate recorded over the

past 25 years, mainly because the countries that are

expected to see more rapid growth make up an increasing share of world GDP. A number of the developing

non-OECD nations have undertaken significant reforms

over the past several years. Improved macroeconomic

policies, trade liberalization, more flexible exchange rate

regimes, and lower fiscal deficits have lowered their

national inflation rates, reduced uncertainty, and

improved their overall investment climates. More

microeconomic structural reforms, such as privatization

and regulatory reform, have also played key roles. In

general, such reforms have resulted in growth rates that

are above historical trends in many of the emerging

economies over the past 5 to 10 years.

OECD Economies

In the United States, compared with the second half of

the 1990s, GDP growth rates were lower from 2000 to

2002 but rebounded to 2.5 percent in 2003, 3.9 percent in

2004, and 3.2 percent in 2005. GDP growth in 2006 is estimated at 3.3 percent. A downturn in the housing sector

has been the major source of weakening over the past

year, and reductions in manufacturing output indicate

that the slowdown has spread throughout the economy.

At the same time, however, corporate finances have

been healthy, and real nonresidential investment has

remained robust. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 9

OECD Non-OECD World

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 Average Annual Percent Change

IEO2006 IEO2007

2.5% 2.5%

4.9%

5.3%

3.8%

4.1%

Figure 15. Comparison of IEO2006 and IEO2007

Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and

World GDP Growth Rates, 2004-2030

Sources: IEO2006: Energy Information Administration,

International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0484(2006)

(Washington, DC, June 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/

ieo. IEO2007: Derived from Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007).
against other major currencies has also boosted demand

for domestic output.

In the reference case projections, the U.S. economy stabilizes at its long-term growth path by 2010. GDP is projected to grow by an average of 2.9 percent per year from

2004 to 2030—slower than the 3.1-percent annual average over the 1980 to 2004 period—because of the retirement of the baby boom generation and the resultant

slowing of labor force growth.

Canada’s labor force growth is projected to slow in the

medium to long term, however, as baby boomers retire.

The country’s overall economic growth is projected to

fall from the current average of 2.9 percent per year to

averages of 2.6 percent per year from 2007 to 2015 and

2.1 percent per year from 2015 to 2030.

In Mexico, real GDP is projected to grow by an average

of 3.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Mexico’s

strong performance in the past 5 years has been the

result of favorable developments in several areas. First,

lower inflation has allowed the central bank to lower key

policy rates, which has encouraged domestic demand

through greater investment. Second, high oil prices

continue to spur government spending, including

investment in infrastructure projects. Third, remittances

from Mexicans working abroad continue to grow

10 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Table 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions,

1980-2030

(Percent per Year)

Region

History Projections

1980-2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007-2015 2015-2030 2004-2030

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.9 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.3

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.2 3.0 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6

OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.9

Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.7 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 4.7 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.6 2.7 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 0.0 8.2 6.6 7.1 6.6 4.7 3.5 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.4 7.2 6.4 6.4 5.7 4.1 3.1 3.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 9.5 7.0 8.1 7.7 5.5 4.0 4.9

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.0 6.3 5.1 5.8

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.5 9.5 7.2 5.4 6.5

India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.6 5.9 5.0 5.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 6.5 5.9 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.3 4.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 5.2 4.5 3.8 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 4.9 2.3 3.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 7.9 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.7 5.3

Total World

Purchasing Power Parity Rates . . 3.3 5.4 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.2 3.8 4.1

Market Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . 2.9 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.1

Note: All regional real GDP growth rates presented in this table are based on 2000 purchasing power parity weights for the

individual countries in each region, except for the final line of the table, which presents world GDP growth rates based on 2000

market exchange rate weights for all countries.

Sources: Historical Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projected GDP

Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information

Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007). GDP growth rates for China

and India were adjusted downward, based on the analyst’s judgment.
rapidly, boosting domestic consumption. Finally, Mexico’s industrial production follows, and is heavily influenced by, U.S. GDP growth and outsourcing of

employment. Global financial markets remain friendly

to Mexico in terms of the availability and cost of credit

and the volume of foreign direct investment. In general,

strong trade ties with the United States are expected to

help cushion Mexico from deeper economic troubles. By

the same token, Mexico’s future growth is also more

dependent on U.S. growth.

Over the long term, OECD Europe’s GDP is projected to

grow by 2.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 in the reference case, in line with what OECD considers to be

potential output growth in the region’s economies [4].

According to the International Monetary Fund, structural impediments to economic growth still remain in

many countries of OECD Europe, related to the region’s

labor markets, product markets, and costly social welfare systems. Reforms to improve the competitiveness of

European labor and product markets could yield significant dividends in terms of increases in regional output

[5].

After a decade of stagnation and several false starts, economic growth in Japan has been more robust since 2003.

While low by the standards of pre-1990 Japan, the recent

growth in GDP exceeds the potential (no more than 2

percent real growth) for a country with a declining labor

force and population and an industrial technology that

has already caught up with, and in some cases surpassed, the best elsewhere in the world [6]. With the continued decline in its labor force over the projection

period, Japan’s annual GDP growth is projected to slow,

averaging 1.4 percent from 2007 to 2015 and 0.7 percent

from 2015 to 2030. In the short term, Japan’s highly

skilled labor force and strong work ethic are expected to

support the projected average growth rate of 1.4 percent

per year, as more flexible labor policies allowing greater

mobility for workers are adopted.

Economic growth in the rest of OECD Asia is expected to

be somewhat stronger than in Japan. In the medium to

long term, South Korea’s growth is projected to taper off

and be sustained by productivity growth as labor force

growth slows. Prospects in both Australia and New Zealand are healthy, given their consistent track records of

fiscal prudence and structural reforms aimed at maintaining competitive product markets and flexible labor

markets.

Non-OECD Economies

Over the 2004 to 2030 period, economic growth in

non-OECD Europe and Eurasia as a whole is projected

to average 4.3 percent annually. For the past several

years, the non-OECD nations of Europe and Eurasia

have largely been sheltered from global economic uncertainties, recording strong economic growth in each year

since 2000, primarily as a result of robust domestic

demand, the growth bonus associated with ascension of

some countries (including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,

and Slovenia) to the European Union, and the impacts of

rising oil prices on the oil-exporting nations of the region

(including Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan). High world oil prices have stimulated investment outlays, especially in the energy sector of the

Caspian region; however, given the volatility of energy

market prices, it is unlikely that the region’s economies

will be able to sustain the growth rates recently achieved

until diversification from energy becomes more broadly

based. The long-term growth prospects for the former

Soviet Republic economies of Eurasia hinge on their

success in economic diversification, as well as further

improvements in domestic product and financial

markets.

Much of the growth in world economic activity between

2004 and 2030 is expected to occur among the nations of

non-OECD Asia, where regional GDP growth is projected to average 5.8 percent per year. China, non-OECD

Asia’s largest economy, is expected to continue playing

a major role on both the supply and demand sides of the

global economy. IEO2007 projects an average annual

growth rate of approximately 6.5 percent for China’s

economy over the 2004 to 2030 period. The country’s

economic growth is expected to be the highest in the

world.

Structural issues that have implications for medium- to

long-term growth in China include the pace of reform

affecting inefficient state-owned companies and a banking system that is carrying a significant amount of

nonperforming loans. The development of domestic

capital markets to maintain macroeconomic stability

and ensure that China’s large savings are used efficiently supports the medium-term growth projection.

India is another Asian country with a rapidly emerging

economy. The medium-term prospects for India’s economy are positive, as it continues to privatize state enterprises and increasingly adopts free market policies.

Average annual GDP growth in India over the 2004 to

2030 projection period is 5.7 percent. Accelerating structural reforms—including ending regulatory impediments to the consolidation of labor-intensive industries,

labor market and bankruptcy reforms, and agricultural

and trade liberalization—remains essential to stimulate

potential growth and reduce poverty in the medium to

long term. With its vast and relatively cheap labor

force, India is well positioned to reap the benefits of

globalization.

In the rest of non-OECD Asia, economic activity has

remained robust, with exports increasing in response to

a rebound in global demand for high-technology products and stronger import demand from China [7]. Over

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 11
the medium term, national economic growth rates in the

region are expected to be roughly constant over the 2004

to 2015 period, before tapering off gradually to an average of 4.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2030 as labor

force growth rates decline and economies mature.

Although the nations of Central and South America registered a combined 6-percent increase in GDP in 2004

(their best performance in 20 years), the region’s growth

prospects are hampered by a weak international credit

environment, as well as domestic economic and/or

political problems in a number of countries. Growth in

the region remains heavily dependent on the volume of

foreign capital flows.

Rising oil production and prices have helped boost economic growth in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East. Many of the oil-importing countries in the

region have also benefited from spillover effects on

trade, tourism, and financial flows from the region’s oil

exporters. Real GDP growth in the Middle East region in

2006 is estimated at 5 percent. Medium-term prospects

for the region remain favorable, given that a significant

portion of the recent increase in oil revenues is expected

to be permanent.

Economic growth in Africa has maintained a healthy

pace of more than 4 percent per year since 2000, driven

by increased earnings from hydrocarbon exports, strong

global demand and favorable international prices for

some other export commodities, vigorous domestic

demand, and significant foreign direct investment and

foreign aid [8]. Over the 2004 to 2030 period, Africa’s

combined economy is projected to grow at an annual

rate of 4.9 percent. This projection, optimistic by

historical standards, is supported by the region’s strong

economic activity over the past 5 years, which has

resulted from expansion of primary exports and robust

domestic demand in many of Africa’s national economies. Nevertheless, both economic and political factors—such as low savings and investment rates, lack of

strong economic and political institutions, limited quantity and quality of infrastructure and human capital,

negative perceptions on the part of international investors, protracted civil unrest and political disturbances,

and especially the impact of HIV/AIDS on population

growth—present formidable obstacles to growth in a

number of African countries.

Alternative Macroeconomic Growth

Cases

Expectations for the future rates of economic growth are

a major source of uncertainty in the IEO2007 projections.

To illustrate the uncertainties associated with economic

growth trends, IEO2007 includes a high macroeconomic

growth case and a low macroeconomic growth case in

addition to the reference case. The two alternative

growth cases use different assumptions about future

economic growth paths, while maintaining the same

relationship between changes in GDP and changes in

energy consumption that is used in the reference case.

In the high economic growth case, 0.5 percentage point

is added to the growth rate assumed for each region or

country in the reference case. In the low economic

growth case, 0.5 percentage point is subtracted from the

reference case growth rate. The IEO2007 reference case

shows total world energy consumption reaching 702

quadrillion Btu in 2030—298 quadrillion Btu in the

OECD countries and 404 quadrillion Btu in the

non-OECD countries. In the high economic growth case,

total world energy use in 2030 is projected at 773 quadrillion Btu, 72 quadrillion Btu (or about 36 million barrels oil equivalent per day) higher than in the reference

case. In the low economic growth case, world energy

consumption in 2030 is projected to be 68 quadrillion Btu

(34 million barrels oil equivalent per day) lower than in

the reference case. Thus, there is a range of 140 quadrillion Btu—about one-fifth of the total consumption projected for 2030 in the reference case—between the

projections for 2030 in the high and low macroeconomic

growth cases (Figure 16).

Alternative World Oil Price Cases

The impacts of world oil prices on energy demand and

its composition are another large source of uncertainty

in the IEO2007 projections. To illustrate the impacts,

IEO2007 includes two alternative price cases. In the

IEO2007 high world oil price case, world oil prices climb

from $43 per barrel (2005 real dollars) in 2004 to $100 per

12 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

200

400

600

800

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

Low

Economic

Growth

Reference

High

Economic

Growth

Figure 16. World Marketed Energy Consumption

in Three Economic Growth Cases,

1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
barrel in 2030. In the low price case, oil prices moderate

fairly quickly to $49 per barrel in 2010 and then further

to $34 per barrel in 2015 and remain at that level through

2030 (Figure 17). Despite the considerable difference

between oil prices in the low and high price cases in 2030

(around $70 per barrel), the projections for total world

energy consumption in the reference and alternative oil

price cases do not vary substantially.

There is, however, a larger impact on the energy mix. In

2030, total world energy use in the high and low world

oil price cases is separated by only 38 quadrillion Btu

(Figure 18). In comparison, the difference between the

low and high macroeconomic growth case projections is

140 quadrillion Btu. The potential effects of higher and

lower oil prices on world GDP can also be seen in the

low and high world oil price cases (see box on page 14).

In the long run, the projections for economic growth are

not affected substantially by the oil price assumptions.

The most significant variations are GDP increases of

around 1 percent in the low price case relative to the reference case in 2015 for some regions outside the Middle

East and, in the oil-exporting Middle East region only, a

1-percent drop in GDP in 2015. In 2030, however, there

are virtually no differences among GDP projections for

any region in the different cases, because the world’s

economies have had sufficient time to adjust to the lower

or higher oil prices.

The most significant impacts of the higher and lower

world oil price assumptions are on the mix of energy

fuels consumed in each region, particularly liquids and

coal (Figure 19). In the high price case, total world

energy use in 2030 is about 20 quadrillion Btu lower, and

world liquids consumption is 29 quadrillion Btu lower,

than projected in the reference case. Natural gas consumption is also lower in 2030, by a more modest 5 quadrillion Btu, whereas the projections for coal, nuclear

power, and renewable energy consumption are higher

than those in the reference case.

In the low world oil price case, lower prices both allow

consumers to increase their use of liquids for transportation purposes and discourage the migration away from

liquids to other energy sources in sectors where fuel substitution is fairly easy to achieve (as opposed to the

transportation sector, where there are still relatively few

alternatives to petroleum-based fuels). Total liquids

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 13

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 2005 Dollars per Barrel

History Projections

High World

Oil Price

Reference

Low World

Oil Price

Figure 17. World Oil Prices in Three World Oil

Price Cases, 1980-2030

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual

Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC,

February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

200

400

600

800

Quadrillion Btu

High Price Reference Low Price

Figure 18. World Marketed Energy Consumption

in Three World Oil Price Cases,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Reference High Price Low Price

0

100

200

300

400

Quadrillion Btu

Liquids Coal Natural Gas Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 19. World Marketed Energy Consumption

in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030

Note: Liquids supply sources include both conventional and

unconventional sources.

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
14 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

World GDP: Potential Impacts of High and Low Oil Prices

Price paths in the IEO2007 high and low world oil price

cases are not characterized by disruption but rather

represent sustained movements relative to the reference case oil price path. The assumptions behind the oil

price cases are that the price changes do not come as a

shock and that the central banks of developed countries are able to carry out active monetary policies

effectively, because core inflation does not get out of

hand and exchange rates do not change from those in

the reference case. Further, it is assumed that national

fiscal policies do not vary from those in the reference

case. If any of these assumptions were changed, the

economic projections in the alternative cases would be

altered.

Global Insight, Inc.’s Global Scenario Model was

employed to project the alternative paths of world economic growth in the high and low world oil price cases

relative to the reference case. The figures below represent percentage differences, over time, in nominal

world oil prices (left) and real world GDP (right) in the

high and low world oil price cases relative to those in

the reference case. In the high price case, oil prices rise

steadily to 62 percent above reference case prices

within 8 years (2014). Thereafter the difference widens

gradually, to 76 percent above reference case prices in

2030. In the low price case, oil prices are 28 percent

below reference case prices in 2013, after which the difference widens to 43 percent in 2030.

Because world oil prices fall proportionately less in the

low price case than they rise in the high price case (relative to the reference case), changes in GDP projections

in the two price cases relative to those in the reference

case are not symmetrical. Also, because most of the

deviation from reference case prices in the high and

low cases occurs by approximately 2014, differences

from the reference case GDP projections are greatest at

that point in time, then begin to narrow as the rates at

which oil prices change become more similar across the

three cases.

Higher (and lower) oil prices relative to the reference

case affect national economies both internally and in

their interactions with other nations through exports

and imports. In the short term, as higher oil prices feed

through the economy and reduce purchasing power,

real aggregate expenditures on goods and services

decline.a With aggregate demand for output falling

behind aggregate supply, unemployment increases,

energy-intensive capital stock begins to become obsolete, and real GDP is lower.

In oil-importing countries that also have major oilproducing sectors, like the United States, higher oil

prices increase the flow of economic resources into oil

production activities. At the same time, national

expenditures on petroleum imports increase, with negative repercussions for real GDP. Countries wholly

dependent on oil imports, like Japan, are forced to

spend more for their energy purchases. Oil-importing

countries with export-dependent economies, like

South Korea, are affected even more severely, as their

energy expenditures climb while export revenues fall

because worldwide demand is lower. In addition, with

(continued on page 15)

aThe discussion here focuses on economic effects in the high oil price case. In the low oil price case, effects will be diametrically

opposite.

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0.0

0.4

0.8

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

Percent

High World

Oil Price

Low World

Oil Price

-1.1%

0.7%

Differences from Reference Case World Real GDP

Projections in the High and Low World Oil Price

Cases, 2006-2030

Source: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model

(February 2007).

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

20

40

60

80

-20

-40

-60

Percent

High World

Oil Price

Low World

Oil Price

62%

76%

-28%

-43%

Differences from Reference Case World Oil Price

Projections in the High and Low World Oil Price

Cases, 2006-2030

Source: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model

(February 2007).
consumption in 2030 is 33 quadrillion Btu higher in the

low price case than projected in the reference case,

reflecting increased demand in all the end-use sectors.

The transportation sector shows the largest increase

in liquids consumption in 2030 in the low world oil

price relative to the reference case, at 18 quadrillion Btu

(Figure 20).

In the IEO2007 reference case, world oil prices rise

steadily after 2015, to $59 per barrel in 2030. As a result,

liquids consumption is curtailed in countries that have

other fuel options available—especially in the electric

power sector, where coal and other fuels can be substituted. In the reference case, worldwide use of liquids for

electricity generation grows by only 1.0 quadrillion Btu

from 2004 to 2030. In the low world oil price case, the

corresponding increase is 4.0 quadrillion Btu, as countries in both the OECD and non-OECD regions retain

their oil-fired generating capacity in the lower price

environment.

Trends in Energy Intensity

Another major source of uncertainty in the projections is

the changing relationship of energy use to GDP—or

energy intensity—over time. Economic growth and

energy demand are linked, but the strength of that link

varies among regions. In the OECD nations, history

shows the link to be a relatively weak one, with energy

demand lagging behind economic growth (Figure 21). In

the non-OECD region, except for non-OECD Europe

and Eurasia, economic growth has been closely correlated with energy demand growth for much of the past

three decades (Figure 22). Only recently, within the past

decade or so, has economic growth begun to outpace the

growth in energy use among the world’s emerging

economies.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 15

World GDP: Potential Impacts of High and Low Oil Prices (Continued)

higher aggregate prices, interest rates tend to rise.

Oil-exporting countries, like Saudi Arabia and Russia,

see more revenue from their oil exports, boosting

incomes and increasing their demand for goods and

services and their real GDP.

Over time, the world economy adjusts back to its

long-term (reference case) growth path. In the medium

term, increases in unemployment lead to downward

adjustments in wages and prices. In developed countries, central banks react by lowering key policy rates,

thus boosting interest-sensitive aggregate demand.

After 2015, the rebound effects of lower employment

costs, lower prices, and lower interest rates outweigh

the contractionary effects of higher oil prices, leading

to stronger real GDP growth and lower inflation. As

aggregate demand increases in the oil-exporting countries with higher oil revenues, their demand for

imports grows, increasing the demand for exports

from the oil-importing countries. As a result, in 2030,

the world economy ends up with almost the same real

GDP growth rate and unemployment rate as in the reference case, although the composition and sources of

world output, international trade, and capital flows are

qualitatively different from those in the reference case.

Real GDP in the high and low world oil price cases

deviates from its reference case path for a considerable

period of time, but as the world economy adjusts to the

higher or lower oil prices, the deviation becomes

smaller. Thus, world real GDP in 2030 is approximately

the same in the three cases. Using 2006 and 2030 as end

points to compute average annual growth rates in

world real GDP, the rates in the three cases are approximately the same; however, that calculation does not

portray adequately the dynamic movements of the

world economy and the extent of the differences across

the three cases. The present discounted sum of changes

in real GDP over the projection period gives a better

indication of net effects on the world economy. The

sums of the changes in world GDP from the reference

case (discounted at 7 percent) in the low and high price

cases over the 2006-2030 period are $2,937 billion and

-$4,226 billion, respectively, representing approximately 0.3 percent and -0.4 percent of the sum of discounted real GDP in the reference case—taking into

account factor displacements, dislocations, and adjustments as well as gainers and losers within and across

countries.

239

210

272

Reference High Price Low Price

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Quadrillion Btu

Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Electric Power

Figure 20. World Liquids Consumption in Three

World Oil Price Cases, 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Historically, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia have had

higher levels of energy intensity than either the OECD or

other non-OECD economies. In non-OECD Europe and

Eurasia, energy consumption generally grew more rapidly than GDP until 1990 (Figure 23), when the collapse

of the Soviet Union created a situation in which both

income and energy use declined but GDP fell more

quickly. As a result, energy intensity increased. Only

since the late 1990s, after the 1997 devaluation of the

Russian ruble, did the Russian and Ukrainian industrial

sectors begin to strengthen. Since then, economic

growth in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia has begun to

outpace growth in energy use significantly, and energy

intensity has begun a precipitous decline. The region’s

energy intensity is projected to continue declining in the

IEO2007 reference case, while still remaining higher

than in any other part of the world (Figure 24).

The stage of economic development and the standard of

living of individuals in a given region strongly influence

16 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 Index, 1980 = 1

History Projections

Energy Use

Gross

Domestic

Product

Figure 21. Growth in Energy Use and

Gross Domestic Product for the

OECD Economies, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 Index, 1980 = 1

History Projections

Energy Use

Gross

Domestic

Product

Figure 22. Growth in Energy Use and

Gross Domestic Product for the

Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030

Note: Non-OECD economies in this figure exclude nonOECD Europe and Eurasia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

Index, 1980 = 1

History Projections

Energy Use

Gross

Domestic

Product

Figure 23. Growth in Energy Use and

Gross Domestic Product for the

Non-OECD Economies of Europe

and Eurasia, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25 Thousand Btu per 2000 Dollar of GDP

History Projections

OECD

Other Non-OECD

Non-OECD

Europe and

Eurasia

Figure 24. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
the link between economic growth and energy demand.

Advanced economies with high living standards have

relatively high levels of energy use per capita, but they

also tend to be economies where per capita energy use is

stable or changes very slowly. In the OECD economies,

there is a high penetration rate of modern appliances

and motorized personal transportation equipment. To

the extent that spending is directed to energyconsuming goods, it involves more often than not purchases of new equipment to replace old capital stock.

The new stock is often more efficient than the equipment

it replaces, resulting in a weaker link between income

and energy demand.

The pace of improvement in energy intensity may

change, given different assumptions of macroeconomic

growth over time. Faster growth in income generally

leads to a faster rate of improvement (decline) in energy

intensity. In the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth

case, worldwide energy intensity is projected to decline

by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2030, as

compared with 2.2 percent in the reference case. On the

other hand, slower economic growth generally leads to a

slower rate of improvement in energy intensity. In the

low macroeconomic growth case, world energy intensity is projected to decline by an average of only 2.1 percent per year over the projection period.

References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 17

1. S. Saraf, “India Set To Revise Hydroelectric Policy,”

Power in Asia, No. 471 (February 1, 2007), pp. 8-9.

2. “Xiangjiaba Starts Construction,” Power in Asia, No.

467/468 (December 7, 2006), pp. 19-20.

3. Global Insight, Inc., “Bolivia: Concerns in Bolivia

Over Brazil’s Plans To Build Power Plants on

Border” (January 31, 2007), web site www.

globalinsight.com.

4. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook No. 80 (Paris,

France, November 2006), Annex Table 21, “Potential GDP, Employment and Capital Stock,” web site

www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/49/37841330.xls.

5. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: Financial Systems and Economic Cycles (Washington, DC, September 2006), p. 23, web site www.

imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/index.

htm.

6. M. Mussa, “Strong Growth, Rising Inflation, and

Tighter Monetary Policies This Year Point to Slower

Global Growth for 2007,” Presentation at the Tenth

Semiannual Meeting on Global Economic Prospects

(Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2006).

7. The International Bank for Reconstruction and

Development / The World Bank, Global Economic

Prospects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (Washington, DC, December 2006), p. 6, web

site www.worldbank.org/gep2007.

8. United Nations, World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 (New York, NY, 2007), p. 9, web site

www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html.

Chapter 2

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector

In the IEO2007 projections, end-use energy consumption depends on

resource endowment, economic growth, and other

political, social, and demographic factors.

One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the

end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is dominated by petroleum-based

liquids products at present, the mix of energy use in the

residential, commercial, and industrial sectors varies

widely by region, depending on a combination of

regional factors, such as the availability of energy

resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines IEO2007 reference case projections for delivered

energy consumption by end-use sector in the OECD and

non-OECD regions.

Transportation Sector

Energy use in the transportation sector includes the

energy consumed in moving people and goods by road,

rail, air, water, and pipeline. The road transport component includes light-duty vehicles, such as automobiles,

sport utility vehicles, minivans, small trucks, and motorbikes, as well as heavy-duty vehicles, such as large

trucks used for moving freight and buses for passenger

travel. Growth in economic activity and population

growth are the key factors that determine transportation

sector energy demand. Economic growth spurs growth

in industrial output, which requires the movement of

raw materials to manufacturing sites as well as movement of manufactured goods to end users. In developing

economies, increased economic activity expands percapita income; and as standards of living rise, demand

for personal transportation increases.

Over the next 25 years, demand for petroleum and other

liquid fuels is expected to increase more rapidly in the

transportation sector than in any of the other end-use

sectors. In the OECD countries, which are projected to

remain the greatest users of energy for transportation,

the transportation sector’s share of total liquids demand

is projected to rise from 58 percent in 2004 to 63 percent

in 2030. In the non-OECD countries, the transportation

sector is projected to account for a rising share of liquids

consumption, and the liquids share of transportation

energy use grows from 42 percent in 2004 to nearly 50

percent in 2030.

A primary factor contributing to the expected increase in

energy demand for transportation is steadily increasing

demand for personal travel in both the developing and

mature economies. Increases in urbanization and in personal incomes have contributed to increases in air travel

as well as increased motorization (i.e., more vehicles) in

the growing economies. Modal shifts in the transport of

goods are expected to result from strong GDP growth in

both OECD and non-OECD economies. For freight

transportation, trucking is expected to lead the growth

in demand for transportation fuels. In addition, as trade

among countries increases, the volumes of freight transported by air and marine vessels is expected to increase

rapidly over the projection period [1].

In the price environment of the past several years, alternative transportation fuels have received growing attention worldwide. The United States, for instance, has

passed legislation to increase the amount of ethanol in

the U.S. liquids mix and has increased funding for

research on cellulosic biofuels. In OECD Europe, there

has been a major push to increase the use of alternative

fuels for transportation, including natural gas. Alternative fuels remain fairly expensive, however. Barring any

widespread increase in penetration of new technologies,

whether driven by policy changes or other factors, the

world’s use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector is expected to remain relatively modest through 2030

in both OECD and non-OECD countries.

OECD Countries

Energy demand for transportation in the OECD economies is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9

percent, from 57.9 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 63.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 73.4 quadrillion Btu in 2030

(Figure 25). As a whole, the OECD transportation sector

can be characterized as fully established, with extensive

infrastructure that includes highways, airport facilities,

and rail systems. Transportation uses are expected to

account for nearly all the growth in demand for liquids

in the OECD countries over the projection period.

In the United States, the transportation sector continues to account for almost one-fourth of the country’s

total energy consumption; and in the IEO2007 reference

case, U.S. transportation energy demand is projected to

grow from 27.9 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 32.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 39.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The

United States is the largest user of transportation energy

among the OECD nations and is projected to consume

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 19
54 percent of the region’s total for the transportation sector in 2030. Freight trucks are projected to be the fastest

growing mode of travel in the United States, with vehicle miles traveled by freight trucks increasing at an average rate of 2.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, while

their energy use increases by 1.8 percent per year. U.S.

air travel is projected to increase by an average of 1.7

percent per year over the period; however, advanced

aircraft technologies are expected to improve the efficiency of air travel, and so fuel use for air travel grows by

only 1.4 percent per year.

Income growth and stable fuel prices are expected to

continue the demand for larger, more powerful vehicles

in the United States; however, advanced technologies

and materials are expected to provide increased performance and size while improving new vehicle fuel economy. In March 2006, the National Highway Traffic

Safety Administration finalized corporate average fuel

economy (CAFE) standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in model years

(MY) 2008 through 2011 [2]. The new CAFE standards

specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle

footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from

the center of the front axle to the center of the rear axle)

times the average track width (the distance between the

center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet. U.S.

fuel economy standards for cars are assumed to remain

at the current (2004) level of 27.5 miles per gallon

through 2030.

In Mexico, strong GDP growth (3.6 percent per year)

is projected to increase energy consumption in the

transportation sector at an average rate of 2.3 percent

per year, from 1.8 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 2.3 quadrillion Btu in 2015, and 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The

projected increase in transportation fuel use is based

on expected growth in trade with the United States

and overall improvement in the country’s standard of

living [3].

Transportation energy demand in OECD Europe is projected to increase by only 0.2 percent per year, from current usage of 18.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 18.9

quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 19.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

The transportation share of total energy use in OECD

Europe is projected to decline slightly, from 23 percent

in 2004 to about 22 percent in 2030. Low population

growth, high taxes on transportation fuels, and environmental policies to discourage growth in transportation

energy use are expected to slow the growth of transportation demand in OECD Europe.

Non-OECD Countries

The projected average growth rate of transportation

energy use in the non-OECD countries from 2004 to

2030, at 2.9 percent per year, is more than triple the projected rate for OECD countries, and their use of liquids

in the transportation sector is expected to double over

the period (Figure 25). Among the non-OECD countries,

China, India, and the nations of Central and South

America are expected to be significant contributors to

the growth in transportation sector energy consumption. China and India are expected to show the largest

increases among the non-OECD countries. The combined growth rate for transportation energy use in all the

countries of Central and South American economies is

projected to be similar to that in India.

Historically, growth in transportation activity has been

tied to income growth, indicating a strong relationship

between per-capita GDP and passenger car travel per

capita in countries with developing economies [4]. In

many countries of OECD Asia, the availability of financing and an increase in the debt tolerance of middle class

families are contributing to increased vehicle purchases.

Total transportation energy demand in the non-OECD

countries is projected to grow from 29.8 quadrillion Btu

in 2004 to 42.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 63.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The transportation sector is projected to

account for nearly 60 percent of the total increase in liquids use in non-OECD countries from 2004 to 2030. The

growth in transportation energy use is expected to be led

by greater demand for aviation fuel. Expanding ownership of private automobiles and an increasing role of

trucking in freight transportation also play a significant

role in the expected increase in energy demand. In 2004,

the non-OECD economies accounted for about 34 percent of world energy use for transportation. In 2030,

their share is projected to be 46 percent, as the gap

20 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

20

40

60

80

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 25. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation

Sector Delivered Energy Consumption,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
between transportation energy consumption in the

non-OECD and OECD economies narrows substantially

over the projection period (Figure 25).

China’s energy use for transportation is projected to

grow by an average of 4.9 percent per year, from 4.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 7.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and

15.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Virtually all the growth in

transportation energy consumption in China is projected to be in the form of liquids, mostly petroleumbased. As the country’s economy expands, its energy

use for air travel is expected to grow more rapidly than

energy use for road transport (see box on page 22). Personal travel in China has soared in the past two decades,

with passenger miles traveled increasing fivefold [5].

Still, in 2005 there were 4.5 million automobiles in China

[6], as compared with 130.8 million automobiles in the

United States [7].

After China, India is expected to experience the fastest

expansion in transportation sector energy use in the

world. India’s transportation energy use is projected to

grow at an average rate of 3.3 percent per year in the

IEO2007 reference case, compared with the world average of 1.7 percent per year. In comparison with other

countries in the emerging, non-OECD Asia region,

India’s transportation infrastructure is well developed

and used effectively by a large section of the population.

Its railways are particularly established—although

many rural areas still are largely inaccessible by rail. The

IEO2007 reference case anticipates that India will continue to expand its public transportation networks over

the projection period, allowing robust increases in both

road and rail transport and resulting in a more than doubling of transportation energy use between 2004 and

2030.

The pace and extent of transportation infrastructure

improvements in China and India will influence the

pace of growth in their transportation energy use. Interconnecting cities with major ports will allow goods and

people to flow more quickly, making motorized road

travel—for both freight transport and personal motor

vehicles—more attractive. India launched its National

Highways Development Project (NHDP) in 1998 to

modernize its major highways [8]. The first phase of the

project—the “Golden Quadrilateral,” a 3,625-mile multilane highway system that connects Delhi, Mumbai,

Chennai, and Calcutta—was completed at the end of

2006. The second phase—the North-South and EastWest national highways that will connect the outermost

points of the country—will comprise more than 4,200

miles of highway, with a scheduled completion date of

December 2007. Additional NHDP projects are scheduled beyond that.

Transportation infrastructure investments are also

occurring in China. In Beijing, a considerable amount of

road construction and repair is underway in advance of

the 2008 Olympic Games, with more than 40 main roads

being repaired and 27 new arteries and 9 expressways

under construction [9]. The country also has an ambitious plan to construct a 53,125-mile national expressway network to connect all its major transportation

hubs, including railways, airports, and ports [10]. The

“7918 Network” will, upon completion in 2020, connect

Beijing with 7 major population centers or transportation hubs; 9 highways will connect the northern and

southern parts of the country; and 18 highways will provide east-west connections. The need to expand road

infrastructure is also evident in China’s rural areas. For

example, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region has

announced plans to invest some $1.2 billion on road

works in 2007, to build more than 2,400 miles of new

roadway [11].

The Middle East has a relatively small population and is

not a major energy consumer but rather an exporter;

however, rapid population growth in the region is

expected to result in increased demand for transportation. The region’s energy demand for transportation is

projected to grow from 4.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 6.9

quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 9.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Residential Sector

Energy use in the residential sector, which accounted for

about 11 percent of worldwide delivered energy consumption in 2004, is defined as the energy consumed by

households, excluding transportation uses. For residential buildings, the physical size of the structures is one

key indicator of the amount of energy used by their

occupants. Larger homes require more energy to provide heating, air conditioning, and lighting, and they

tend to include more energy-using appliances, such as

televisions and laundry equipment. Smaller structures

require less energy, because they contain less space to be

heated or cooled, produce less heat transfer with the outdoor environment, and typically have fewer occupants.

The type and amount of energy used by households

vary from country to country, depending on income levels, natural resources, climate, and available energy

infrastructure. In general, typical households in the

OECD use more energy than those in non-OECD

nations, in part because higher income levels allow

OECD households to purchase more energy-using

equipment. Consequently, residential sector energy use

in the OECD countries accounts for about 60 percent of

the world’s residential delivered energy use, although

the OECD nations account for only 18 percent of the

world’s population.

Whereas households in the OECD nations used more

energy in 2004 in total than did the non-OECD nations,

more rapid growth of residential energy consumption is

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 21
22 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

China’s Transportation Sector: Recent Developments and Long-Term Projections

What happens in China in terms of liquids demand can

have a substantial impact on world oil markets. China,

with a rapidly expanding transportation sector, is the

world’s fastest-growing oil consumer. In the past 2

years, China alone accounted for more than 30 percent

of the world’s incremental consumption of liquid

fuels.a China’s strong growth in consumption helped

to support high world oil prices in 2005 and 2006.

Transportation use is likely to define much of the

growth in China’s liquids consumption. An understanding of potential developments in China’s transportation energy use over the coming decades is

important, because it can allow analysts to consider

how China’s liquids markets will evolve and their

potential impacts on world oil markets.

Economic growth, rapid urbanization, and the emergence of a modern transportation system all have contributed to the recent increase in China’s liquids

consumption. In the IEO2007 reference case, total liquids consumption in China is projected to average 3.5-

percent growth annually—higher than the growth rate

for any other country in the world—and to reach 32

quadrillion Btu (about 16 million barrels oil equivalent

per day) in 2030. In comparison, U.S. liquids consumption grows at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year

over the projection period, to more than 52 quadrillion

Btu in 2030. China is projected to account for 28 percent

of the total increase in world liquids consumption from

2004 to 2030 and for 14 percent of the world’s total consumption in 2030, nearly double its share in 2004.

In the IEO2007 projections, China’s energy use for

transportation grows at a rate that is only about 20 percent less than its GDP growth rate, and the transportation share of its total liquids use increases from 32

percent in 2004 to 47 percent by 2030. Similar trends

have characterized other developing economies in the

past, both in the west and in Asian countries, including

South Korea and Japan. High rates of economic growth

in developing economies (particularly if growth is

linked to manufacturing) typically require increased

transportation services to connect production facilities

with raw materials and energy sources, and to transport manufactured goods to consumer markets in

growing urban areas. In addition, rising per-capita

incomes historically have been associated with rapid

increases in personal travel by road and air.

In China, most of the growth in transportation energy

consumption is expected to be for road use (see figure

below). Total transportation energy use is projected to

increase by more than 11 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to

2030, and road vehicles are projected to account for

nearly 70 percent of the increase. Air, rail, and marine

transportation modes account for 14, 12, and 5 percent

of the projected increase, respectively. Factors affecting

the projections for transportation energy use by mode

include urbanization and expansion of the middle

class, efficiency improvements, consumer preferences,

costs, and lag times associated with infrastructure

development.

In the projections by travel mode, China’s energy use

for air travel has the highest growth rate, consistently

exceeding the growth rate for GDP despite the expectation of significant improvements in fuel efficiency for

air travel (see top figure on page 23). Similarly, Boeing

Commercial Airplanes has estimated that revenue passenger-miles in China will grow about 20 percent faster

than GDP from 2005 to 2025.b Energy use for rail transportation (both passenger and freight) increases more

slowly, at about 75 percent the rate of GDP growth on

average from 2004 to 2030.c

(continued on page 23)

aEnergy Information Administration, International Petroleum Monthly (February 7, 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ipm; and ShortTerm Energy Outlook (February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo. bBoeing Commercial Airplanes, Current Market Outlook 2006 (Seattle, WA), p. 24, web site www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pdf/

CMO_06.pdf.

c

The energy use projection incorporates an estimated 15-percent efficiency improvement over the forecast.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

5

10

15

20

Quadrillion Btu

Road

Rail

Air

Water

Transportation Energy Use in China by Mode,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 23

China’s Transportation Sector: Recent Developments and Long-Term Projections (Continued)

As China’s per-capita income rises, cars are expected to

be the mode of choice for an increasing share of passenger travel, as has been observed in other developing

economies. Buses and two- and three-wheeled vehicles, which accounted for 42 percent of road energy use

in China in 2004, are projected to decline to a 26-

percent share in 2030, while the share represented by

cars and light trucks increases from 18 percent in 2004

to 33 percent in 2030 (see figure below).

The projections for road transportation assume that the

ongoing development of China’s road infrastructure

will keep pace with increases in vehicle use. From 1994

to 2004, the country’s total highway length grew at

an average annual rate of 5.3 percent,d and similar

increases will be needed annually from 2004 to 2030. If

the pace of infrastructure construction cannot be maintained, China’s transportation energy use could grow

more slowly than projected.

Consumption of all transportation fuels in China (with

the exception of coal used in older steam locomotives)

increases in the projections (see figure below). Total

liquids consumption for transportation in 2030 is projected to be 11.2 quadrillion Btu more than the 2004

total. Diesel fuel, gasoline, and jet fuel account for 46

percent, 36 percent, and 14 percent of the increase,

respectively; and diesel fuel and gasoline together

account for 80 percent of China’s total projected energy

use for transportation in 2030. Consumption of diesel

fuel is expected to increase more rapidly than gasoline

use, however, because it is the primary rail fuel and a

major fuel for marine transport, and because diesel-fueled trucks are projected to account for an

increasing share of total fuel use by large trucks. Following historical trends, coal use in China’s transportation sector is projected to decline steadily, as diesel

locomotives replace older railroad equipment.

dNational Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2005 (Beijing, People’s Republic of China: China Statistics Press), web

site www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexeh.htm.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

25

50

75

100

Percent of Total

Large Trucks Cars/Light Trucks

Buses Two-/Three-Wheel Vehicles

China’s Energy Use for Road Transportation by

Vehicle Type, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

5

10

15

20

Quadrillion Btu

Gasoline

Diesel

Jet Fuel

Heavy Fuel Oil

Other

China’s Transportation Energy Use by Fuel Type,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2004-2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 Percent per Year

GDP Road Rail Air Water

Average Annual Growth in China’s GDP and

Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
projected for the non-OECD than for the OECD countries, and in 2020 non-OECD residential energy use is

expected to exceed OECD residential energy use (Figure

26). Worldwide, the projected increase in residential

electricity demand accounts for nearly 60 percent of the

growth in overall residential energy demand from 2004

through 2030. By 2025, electricity overtakes natural gas

as the world’s largest source of energy for household

use.

OECD Countries

Households in OECD nations use energy more intensively than those in non-OECD nations, primarily

because of their higher income levels. The United States

and OECD Europe together consumed nearly one-half

(49 percent) of the world’s delivered residential energy

in 2004; however, their share is expected to fall to 38 percent in 2030 as a result of increasing efficiency and

slower growth in residential energy use than projected

for the non-OECD countries.

Growth in electricity use in the OECD countries

accounts for about 81 percent of the total projected

growth in OECD residential energy demand (Figure 27),

which will require additional power plants and corresponding increases in fuel use for electricity generation.

Mexico’s residential energy use is projected to show the

highest rate of increase among the OECD nations, as its

real GDP grows at a projected rate that is 44 percent

higher than the OECD average. In OECD Asia, residential (and total) energy demand is projected to grow very

little, because little or no growth is expected in the

region’s total population.

Non-OECD Countries

Household energy use is projected to increase more rapidly in the non-OECD countries than in the OECD countries over the coming decades (Figure 27). In China and

India, population growth, rising income levels, and

urbanization are expected to produce large increases in

demand for residential energy services. For the nonOECD region as a whole, real GDP is projected to grow

by more than 5 percent per year on average from 2004

through 2030, population is projected to grow by more

than 1 percent per year, and household energy use is

projected to grow at a robust rate of 2.4 percent per year,

as higher incomes foster increased use of energy-using

appliances. As a result, households in the non-OECD

nations are projected to consume about 10 percent more

energy than households in the OECD nations in 2030,

requiring more than 86 percent more energy in 2030 than

was consumed in the region in 2004. China and India are

expected to account for more than 40 percent of the

increase in residential energy use in the non-OECD

countries through 2030, as their economies continue to

grow rapidly over the projection period.

In many non-OECD countries today, households still

use traditional, non-marketed energy sources, including

wood and waste, for heating and cooking. Regional economic development should displace some of that use as

incomes rise and marketed fuels, such as propane and

electricity, become more widely accessible.

Commercial Sector

The commercial sector—often referred to as the services

sector or the services and institutional sector—consists

24 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 26. OECD and Non-OECD Residential

Sector Delivered Energy Consumption,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Liquids Natural

Gas

Coal Electricity Total

Delivered

Energy

0

2

4

6

-2

Average Annual Percent Change

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 27. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD

Residential Sector Delivered Energy

Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
of businesses, institutions, and organizations that provide services. The sector encompasses many different

types of buildings and a wide range of activities and

energy-related services. Examples of commercial sector

facilities include schools, stores, correctional institutions, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, museums, office

buildings, banks, and even stadiums that hold sporting

events. Most commercial energy use occurs in buildings

or structures, supplying services such as space heating,

water heating, lighting, cooking, and cooling. Energy

consumed for services not associated with buildings,

such as for traffic lights and city water and sewer services, is also categorized as commercial sector energy

use.

Economic and population growth trends drive commercial sector activity and the resulting energy use. The

need for services (health, education, financial, government) increases as populations increase. The degree to

which these additional needs are met depends in large

measure on economic resources—whether from domestic or foreign sources—and economic growth. Economic

growth also determines the degree to which additional

commercial sector activities are offered and utilized.

Higher levels of economic activity and disposable

income lead to increased demand for hotels and restaurants to meet business and leisure requirements; for

office and retail space to house and service new and

expanding businesses; and for cultural and leisure space

such as theaters, galleries, and arenas.

OECD Countries

Slow population growth in most of the OECD nations

contributes to a slower rate of increase in the region’s

commercial energy demand in the IEO2007 projections

than has been seen in the past. In addition, continued

efficiency improvements are expected to moderate the

growth of energy demand over time, as energy-using

equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient stock.

Conversely, strong economic growth is expected to

include continued growth in business activity, with its

associated energy use, in areas such as retail and wholesale trade and business, financial, and leisure services.

The combination of these factors causes commercial

delivered energy consumption in the OECD countries to

increase by an average of 1.2 percent per year from 2004

to 2030 in the reference case (Figure 28). Although the

fastest growth in commercial energy demand among the

OECD economies is expected to be in the countries with

the fastest economic growth (Mexico and South Korea),

the United States remains the largest consumer of commercial delivered energy in the OECD, accounting for

one-half of the 24.6 quadrillion Btu of commercial

energy use in the OECD as a whole in 2030.

Commercial electricity demand in the OECD nations is

projected to grow by 1.7 percent per year from 2004 to

2030, with continued advances in technology and the

introduction of new electronic appliances and equipment (Figure 29). Electricity delivered to commercial

consumers in the OECD countries, which totaled 8.6

quadrillion Btu in 2004, is projected to reach 10.8 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 13.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030, surpassing projected OECD residential electricity use of

12.9 quadrillion Btu by the end of the projection period.

Natural gas continues to displace petroleum products

and coal as the preferred heating fuel in the OECD

region.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 25

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

40

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 28. OECD and Non-OECD Commercial

Sector Delivered Energy Consumption,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Liquids Natural

Gas

Coal Electricity Total

Delivered

Energy

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

Average Annual Percent Change

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 29. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD

Commercial Sector Delivered Energy

Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Non-OECD Countries

Economic growth and commerce are expected to

increase rapidly in the non-OECD nations, fueling additional energy demand in the services sector. Faster population growth is also expected, relative to that in the

OECD countries, portending increases in the need for

education, health care, and social services and the

energy required to provide them. Under these circumstances, commercial delivered energy use in non-OECD

countries is projected to double between 2004 and 2020,

to 12.5 quadrillion Btu, and to continue growing to

16.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Over the 2004 to 2030

period, commercial energy use in the non-OECD region

increases at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent.

Electricity demand for commercial applications is projected to grow rapidly in the non-OECD nations as more

clinics, schools, and businesses gain access to electricity.

Annual growth in commercial delivered electricity

use averages 4.9 percent through 2030 (Figure 29), with

projected consumption of 6.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015

and 10.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The largest increases

in commercial electricity demand are projected for

nations with rapidly growing economies, particularly

China and India, as their burgeoning economies foster

increases in demand for services.

In the IEO2007 projections, commercial demand for natural gas grows by 3.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2015

and by 2.7 percent from 2004 to 2030, as several countries

focus on expanding the infrastructure necessary for

delivery of the fuel. Commercial sector liquids consumption is projected to increase from 1.6 quadrillion

Btu in 2004 to 2.2 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 2.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030 in the non-OECD region, increasing

more rapidly in areas where the availability of natural

gas is limited. Commercial sector coal use in the nonOECD countries increases from 0.5 quadrillion Btu in

2004 to 0.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030, with most of the

growth occurring between 2004 and 2015. Coal remains

an economically attractive choice for commercial water

heating, space heating, and cooking in non-OECD countries in the projections, especially in China and India,

which together account for around 80 percent of nonOECD commercial coal use from 2004 through 2030.

Industrial Sector

Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse

group of industries—including manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and construction—and for a wide range of

activities, such as process and assembly uses, space conditioning, and lighting. Inputs that typically are considered energy products are included in industrial sector

energy use. For example, natural gas and petroleum

products used as feedstocks to produce non-energy

products, such as plastics, are counted as energy used in

the industrial sector. Industrial sector energy demand

varies across regions and countries of the world, based

on the level and mix of economic activity, technological

development, and population, among other factors.

The industrial sector is the largest of the end-use sectors,

consuming more than 50 percent of the delivered energy

worldwide in 2004. Worldwide, energy consumption in

the industrial sector is projected to increase by an average of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 through 2030, as

compared with 1.0-percent average annual growth in

the global population. Industrial energy consumption is

expected to increase in all countries and regions; however, much slower growth in industrial sector energy

use is projected for the OECD region than for the

non-OECD region, with annual average increases of

0.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively (Figure 30).

OECD Countries

Industrial sector energy use among the OECD nations

increases by 0.6 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, from 72.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 84.9 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The United States accounts for more

than one-third of the OECD’s total industrial energy

consumption in 2030, and OECD Europe accounts for

approximately another one-third of the OECD total, just

as they did in 2004.

The OECD economies generally have more energyefficient industrial operations and a mix of industrial

output that is more heavily weighted toward nonenergy-intensive sectors than do the non-OECD countries. Also, in the United States, the manufacturing share

of total economic output has declined steadily over the

past two decades, while the output share for service

26 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

50

100

150

200

Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 30. OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector

Delivered Energy Consumption,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
industries (included in the commercial sector) has increased. These general trends are projected to continue.

Similar developments are expected for the other OECD

economies, as increasing international trade fosters a

shift toward a less energy-intensive mix of industrial

activity. For example, many of Japan’s heavy industries

are reducing their output as demand for energyintensive materials increasingly is met by imports from

China and other Asian countries. In the projections, the

industrial sector in Mexico has the fastest energy consumption growth among the OECD countries, at nearly

2.2 percent per year. In Germany, a decline in industrial

energy intensity in the early 1990s was largely the result

of closures of heavy industries in the former East Germany after reunification. Much of the inefficient,

energy-intensive capacity in the eastern part of Germany has already been shut down, but further improvements are projected as capital stock is replaced and

modernized.

Electricity accounted for about 16 percent of OECD

industrial energy use in 2004, and its share increases

slightly over the projection period. Oil and natural gas

were the most heavily used fuels in the OECD countries’

industrial sectors in 2004, together accounting for

two-thirds of the energy consumed in the sector. The

two energy sources are projected to maintain their overall share in 2030, but consumption of natural gas is projected to grow almost five times as rapidly as that of

liquids (Figure 31). Electricity and coal make up the bulk

of the remaining projected energy consumption, while

renewables remain a minor energy source for the sector.

Non-OECD Countries

Industrial sector energy consumption is projected to

increase by 2.5 percent per year in the non-OECD countries between 2004 and 2030 (Figure 30). The non-OECD

economies generally have higher industrial sector

energy consumption relative to GDP than do the OECD

countries. On average, the ratio is almost 40 percent

higher in the non-OECD countries. This is particularly

true of Russia and the Eastern European countries which

still have energy-inefficient capital remaining from the

days of central planning. Per dollar of GDP, Russia’s

industrial sector consumed almost 8,000 Btu of delivered energy in 2004, and the non-OECD European and

other Eurasian countries averaged 5,500 Btu, as compared with the overall non-OECD average of 3,500 Btu

per dollar of GDP and the overall OECD average of

around 2,500 Btu per dollar of GDP. As inefficient facilities in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia are replaced with

modern capacity, industrial energy intensities in the

region are expected to decline more rapidly than in most

of the rest of the world.

Of the non-OECD economies, China, India, and the

other Asian nations are expected to have the most rapid

increases in industrial sector energy consumption

between 2004 and 2030. Whereas the economies of the

OECD countries have largely moved away from heavy,

energy-intensive industries (such as steel and cement)

toward a greater emphasis on light manufacturing and

service activities, the economies of many of the nonOECD countries and regions have growing energyintensive, heavy manufacturing sectors.

Although electricity is expected to become an increasingly important component of industrial sector delivered energy demand in the non-OECD economies, oil,

coal, and natural gas were the most heavily used fuels in

2004, and they are projected to remain so in 2030.

Liquids use in the non-OECD industrial sector increases

at a slower rate than natural gas or coal use (Figure 31).

The continued importance of coal in the non-OECD

industrial sector is largely attributable to China, which

accounts for 70 percent of industrial coal use in the

non-OECD economies in 2030.

References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 27

Liquids Natural

Gas

Coal Electricity Total

Delivered

Energy

0

1

2

3

4 Average Annual Percent Change

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 31. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD

Industrial Sector Delivered Energy

Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy

Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2006) (Washington,

DC, February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

oiaf/aeo.

2. Asian Automotive Business Review, Vol. 17, No.2

(April 2006).
28 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

3. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site

www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

4. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site

www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

5. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site

www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

6. Asian Automotive Business Review, Vol. 17, No.2

(April 2006).

7. S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy

Data Book: Edition 25, ORNL-6974 (Oak Ridge, TN:

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2006), Tables 3.1

and 3.2, web site http://cta.ornl.gov/data/

download25.shtml.

8. National Highways Authority of India, “About

NHDP: NHDP Important Dates,” web site

www.nhai.org.

9. “Beijing Intensifies Road Construction,” Xinhua

news agency, web site CHINAdaily.com.cn (January 15, 2007).

10. S.C. Johnson, “Cruising the ‘7918 Network’ (China

Plans National Expressway Network),” Electronic

Business (August 1, 2006).

11. Global Insight, Inc., “China Regional—Analysis:

Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region: Xinjiang

Plans Major Roadway Initiative for 2007,” web site

www.globalinsight.com (February 12, 2007).
Chapter 3

Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels

World liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference case increases from 83 million barrels

per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Two-thirds of the increment

is projected for use in the transportation sector.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world consumption of

petroleum and other liquid fuels4 grows from 83 million

barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 million in

2015 and 118 million in 2030. The demand for liquids

increases strongly in the projections, despite world oil

prices that remain above $49 per barrel5 throughout the

period. Much of the overall increase in liquids consumption is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia,

where strong economic growth is expected.

To meet the increase in liquids consumption in the

IEO2007 reference case, liquids production is projected

to increase by 14 million barrels per day from 2004 to

2015 and by an additional 20 million barrels per day

from 2015 to 2030. OPEC producers6 are expected to provide more than one-half of the additional production in

2015 (8 million barrels per day) and more than twothirds in 2030 (23 million barrels per day).

In the reference case projections, sustained high world

oil prices support a substantial increase in non-OPEC

liquids production. Non-OPEC production in 2030 is

projected to be 12 million barrels per day higher than in

2004, representing 35 percent of the increase in total

world production over the 2004 total. The estimates of

production increases are based on current proved

reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum, as well as the potential

for unconventional liquids production.

The world oil prices in the IEO2007 reference case—and

in the high world oil price case—also are projected

to make previously uneconomical, unconventional

resources available. In 2004, world production of unconventional liquids totaled only 2.6 million barrels per day;

in 2030, in the reference case, unconventional liquids

production totals 10.5 million barrels per day (Figure 32)

and accounts for nearly 9 percent of total world liquids

production.

World Liquids Consumption

World liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference

case increases to 118 million barrels per day (239 quadrillion Btu) in 2030, as the world continues to experience strong economic growth. Two-thirds of the increment in world liquids consumption in the reference

case is projected for use in the transportation sector,

where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum (Figure 33). The industrial sector accounts for a

27-percent share of the projected increase, mostly for use

in chemical and petrochemical processes.

The largest increases in consumption between 2004 and

2030 are projected for North America and non-OECD

Asia, at 7 and 15 million barrels per day, respectively

(Figure 34). Outside North America, liquids consumption in the OECD regions generally grows more slowly,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 29

1980 1990 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day

Canadian Oil Sands

Ultra-Heavy Crudes

Biofuels

Coal-to-Liquids

Gas-to-Liquids

Other

History Projections

Figure 32. World Unconventional Liquids

Production in the Reference Case,

1980-2030

Note: “Other” includes shale oils and other unidentified

sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea.. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

4“World Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels” refers to all conventional crude oil and energy liquid substitutes (such as ethanol,

coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids), expressed in million barrels oil equivalent per day. Throughout this chapter, the term “liquids” is used

to refer to petroleum and other liquid fuels. 5All prices are in real 2005 dollars, unless otherwise noted.

6Angola officially joined OPEC on February 1, 2007. In the remainder of this chapter, all references to OPEC include Angola. In addition,

all time series have been updated to reflect country groupings as of March 1, 2007, so that Angola’s liquids production is included in the

OPEC totals for 1980 through 2030. Angola’s production in 2030 is projected to be 3.1 million barrels per day.
reflecting expectations of slow growth or declines in

population and slow economic growth in most of the

OECD nations over the next two decades.

Strong expansion of liquids use is projected for the nonOECD countries, fueled by robust economic growth,

burgeoning industrial activity, and rapidly expanding

transportation use. The fastest growth in oil consumption is projected for the economies of non-OECD Asia,

averaging 2.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. For the

other non-OECD regions, annual consumption growth

averages 1.0 percent in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia,

2.1 percent in the Middle East, 2.3 percent in Central and

South America, and 2.2 percent in Africa.

Non-OECD Asia accounts for 43 percent of the overall

increase in world liquids consumption, with projected

increases of 6.5 million barrels per day from 2004 to 2015

and another 8.5 million barrels per day from 2015 to

2030. China, India, and the other nations of non-OECD

Asia are expected to experience combined economic

growth of 5.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, the

highest rate among all the world regions. The robust

expansion of GDP projected for non-OECD Asia contributes to a 2.7-percent average annual increase in the

region’s liquids use.

World Oil Prices

The world oil price cases in this report are the same as

those in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007. In the reference case, world oil prices decline from $68 per barrel in

2006 to $49 per barrel in 2014, then rise to $59 per barrel

in 2030 ($95 per barrel on a nominal basis). Total world

liquids consumption rises to 118 million barrels per day

in 2030 in the reference case. The low and high price

cases are included to illustrate uncertainties in the reference case projections (Figure 35). In the low price case,

world oil prices are projected to be $36 per barrel in 2030

($58 per barrel on a nominal basis). In the high price case,

oil prices are projected to be $100 per barrel in 2030 ($157

per barrel on a nominal basis). The projections for total

liquids consumption in 2030 range from 103 million barrels per day in the high price case to 134 million barrels

per day in the low price case, indicating the substantial

range of uncertainty in the world’s future oil markets.

30 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

168 184 198 211 224 239

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

100

200

300

400

Quadrillion Btu

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Transportation

Electricity

Figure 33. World Liquids Consumption by Sector,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

North America

Non-OECD Asia

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

Central and South America

Middle East

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

0 10 20 30 40

Million Barrels per Day

2004

2030

Figure 34. World Liquids Consumption by Region

and Country Group, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2006 2015 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 Dollars per Barrel

High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

Reference

History Projections

Figure 35. World Oil Prices in Three Cases,

1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February

2007).
World Liquids Production

In the IEO2007 reference case, world liquids production

in 2030 exceeds the 2004 level by 35 million barrels per

day (Figure 36). Increases in production are expected for

both OPEC and non-OPEC producers; however, 65 percent of the total increase is expected to come from OPEC

areas. In 2030, OPEC is expected to produce 57 million

barrels per day and non-OPEC producers 61 million barrels per day in the reference case. Over the past two

decades, the growth in non-OPEC liquids production

has resulted in an OPEC market share substantially

below its high of 52 percent in 1973. In 2004, OPEC produced 41 percent of the world’s liquids supply. High oil

prices, new exploration and production technologies,

aggressive cost-reduction programs by industry, and

the emergence of unconventional resources contribute

to the outlook for continued growth in non-OPEC

liquids production.

The reference case outlook for liquids production was

formulated in a two-stage approach. The mid-term projections (through 2015) are based primarily on the current activities of the oil industry and national

governments, including: current production volumes;

recent rates of decline in output from producing fields;

planned exploration, development, and enhanced oil

recovery activities; country-specific policies and fiscal

regimes; and current conflicts and social unrest that

could interrupt production and make incremental

investments more risky. After 2015, the reference case

assumes that production decisions are made primarily

on economic grounds, based on assessments of the

resource base, with less weight placed on current political conditions.

The IEO2007 reference case projects greater reliance on

OPEC oil supplies than was anticipated in last year’s

outlook. In IEO2006, OPEC’s total liquids production

(excluding Angola) was projected to increase by nearly

15 million barrels per day from 2003 to 2030; in IEO2007,

the projected increase in OPEC production (excluding

Angola) is about 22 million barrels per day over the

same period. An extensive review of anticipated investment in exploration and production through 2015 was

conducted for IEO2007. As a result, the projections of

non-OPEC supply from several key producers were

lowered. However, the investment that several OPEC

members (notably, Saudi Arabia and Angola) currently

are making to expand their oil production capacity is

expected to more than offset the slower expansion of

non-OPEC supply projected in this year’s outlook.

There are several regions where production is restrained

through 2015 in the reference case. For instance, in the

key resource-rich countries of Mexico and Venezuela,

expected investment levels are lower than those

assumed in the IEO2006 reference case. In both countries, liquids production is projected not to expand (and,

in Mexico, to decline) until after 2015, when economic

decisions on investment allow production to improve.

Also, North Sea production is projected to decline more

rapidly than in last year’s outlook. The rate of decline in

North Sea production over recent years has been higher

than observed in earlier years, and economics do not

support a reversal of the declining trend in the IEO2007

reference case. In Iran and Iraq, political developments

are assumed to keep production levels fairly flat until

after 2015, when investment and production are projected to grow strongly through 2030.

IEO2007 includes supply estimates for the low and high

world oil price cases, based on the availability of world

crude oil resources. In the high price case, worldwide

crude oil resources are assumed to be 15 percent smaller

and therefore more expensive to produce than in the reference case, and the preferred production levels of

OPEC producers are reduced. In the low price case,

worldwide crude oil resources are assumed to be 15 percent larger and therefore less expensive therefore to produce than in the reference case, and the preferred

production levels of OPEC producers are increased. In

each of three oil price cases, a business-as-usual oil market environment is assumed. The IEO2007 cases do not

consider disruptions in oil production for any reason

(war, terrorist activity, weather, geopolitics).

Non-OPEC Production

The world oil prices projected in the IEO2007 reference

case allow non-OPEC suppliers to expand their production through 2030. Non-OPEC production increases

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 31

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

25

50

75

100

125 Million Barrels per Day

History Projections

Non-OPEC Conventional

Total

OPEC Conventional

Non-OPEC Unconventional OPEC Unconventional

Figure 36. OPEC and Non-OPEC Conventional and

Unconventional Liquids Production,

1980-2030

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea.. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
steadily in the projections, from 49 million barrels per

day in 2004 to 61 million barrels per day in 2030, as high

prices attract investment in areas previously considered

uneconomical. The non-OPEC market share in 2030,

however, at 52 percent of the world’s liquids production, is lower than its 2004 share of 59 percent.

Non-OPEC conventional liquids production in the reference case increases from 47 million barrels per day in

2004 to 51 million barrels per day in 2015 and 53 million

barrels per day in 2030, and unconventional liquids production from non-OPEC suppliers rises to 4 million barrels per day in 2015 and 8 million barrels per day in 2030.

In the high world oil price case, non-OPEC unconventional liquids production rises to 11 million barrels per

day in 2030, as compared with 4 million barrels per day

in 2030 in the low price case, where most unconventional liquids are not economically competitive.

North Sea production is projected to decline more rapidly in the IEO2007 reference case than was projected in

IEO2006. Production from Norway, OECD Europe’s

largest producer, appears to have peaked at about 3.4

million barrels per day in 2001, and it is projected to continue declining to about 1.4 million barrels per day in

2030 as the larger and older fields mature. Production

from the United Kingdom, which peaked in 1999 at 3.0

million barrels per day, is projected to fall to 0.5 million

barrels per day in 2030.

Oil production in the non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

region is projected to reach nearly 15.0 million barrels

per day in 2015, based in large part on the potential

investment outlook for the Caspian Basin region, where

long-term production potential still is regarded with

considerable optimism. Caspian output more than doubles from the 2004 level to 4.3 million barrels per day in

2015 in the reference case and increases steadily thereafter. Current uncertainty about export routes from the

Caspian Basin region is assumed to be resolved.

North African producers Egypt and Tunisia produce

mainly from mature fields, and the IEO2007 reference

case assumes few additions to resources in the future. As

a result, their production volumes decline gradually in

the projections. In East Africa, Sudan is expected to produce significant volumes by the end of this decade, with

the potential to exceed 700,000 barrels per day in 2010.

Eritrea, Somalia, and South Africa also have some

resource potential, but they are not expected to produce

significant volumes until late in the projections.

Several West African producers—Cameroon, Chad,

Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mauritania, Niger, Sao Tome and Principe, and Ivory Coast—

are expected to reap the benefits of substantial exploration activity, especially if current high oil prices persist.

West African producers with offshore tracts are

expected to increase output by up to 1.1 million barrels

per day by the end of the projection period.

Oil producers in the Pacific Rim are expected to increase

their production volumes as a result of enhanced exploration and extraction technologies. India’s deepwater

prospects are expected to show some encouraging production increases in this decade, with the potential for

significant increases near the end of the projection

period. China’s conventional oil production is projected

to decline slightly, to about 3.3 million barrels per day in

2030. Vietnam’s long-term production potential is

viewed with considerable optimism, although exploration activity has been slower than originally anticipated.

Output from Vietnamese fields is projected to reach

504,000 barrels per day in 2015.

Malaysia is not expected to find significant new

reserves; its output has already peaked and is expected

to decline gradually through the end of the projection

period, to less than 500,000 barrels per day in 2030.

Papua New Guinea continues to add to its proved

reserves and is expected to achieve production volumes

approaching 110,000 barrels per day in 2015, followed

by only a modest decline over the remainder of the projection period. Exploration and test-well activity have

pointed to some production potential for Bangladesh

and Myanmar (formerly Burma), but significant output

is not expected until after 2010.

In North America, U.S. output that rises to 10.1 million

barrels per day in 2020 and remains fairly flat through

the end of the projection period is expected to be supplemented by significant production increases in Canada.

Canada’s conventional oil output contracts steadily in

the reference case, by about 0.5 million barrels per day

over the next 25 years, but an additional 2.5 million barrels per day of unconventional output from oil sands

projects more than offsets the decline in conventional

supplies. Since the publication of IEO2006, Mexico’s

state oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), has

announced annual production decline rates of 14 percent in its largest oil field at Cantarell [1]. The IEO2007

reference case does not anticipate adequate investments

through 2015, and as a result, production in Mexico is

projected to fall to 3.0 million barrels per day in 2015 (see

box on page 33). IEO2007 assumes that declining revenue from oil production in Mexico ultimately will

encourage government action to increase investment

and technology access in the petroleum sector after 2015.

Given the country’s available resource base, such action

eventually should reverse the decline in production.

Liquids producers in South America have potential for

increasing output over the next decade. Brazil became a

million barrel per day producer of crude oil in 1999, with

considerable production potential waiting to be tapped.

Brazil’s production rises throughout the projection

32 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 33

Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico

Projections for Mexico’s crude oil production in

IEO2007 are much lower than those in IEO2006. In last

year’s outlook, oil production in Mexico was projected

to increase steadily, to 5.0 million barrels per day in

2030, despite an anticipated decline in production from

the country’s largest oil field, Cantarell (see map on

page 34).a IEO2007, instead, projects a decline to 3.0

million barrels per day in 2012, followed by a gradual

recovery to 3.5 million barrels per day in 2030. The new

assessment reflects the anticipated decline in Cantarell

production, assumptions about announced projects

and recent discoveries, and long-term assumptions

about economic motivations and national oil industry

policy that better reflect the country’s production

potential.

Cantarell is, by far, Mexico’s most important oil field

today. In 2004, Cantarell held more than 26 percent of

Mexico’s total remaining oil reserves and produced 2.1

million barrels per day, accounting for more than 61

percent of the country’s total crude oil output.b Since

its peak production in 2004, Cantarell has been in

decline. According to Lui Ramirez Corzo, the former

president of Pemex, the Cantarell decline rate is likely

to average 14 percent per year from 2007 to 2015,

implying that Pemex will have to develop other fields

if it is to offset the decline.c

Crude oil production from the KMZ complex—consisting of the Ku, Maloob, and Zaap fields—has been discussed as a possible new source of liquids production.

There have been reports that the complex could produce enough crude oil to compensate for the yearly

reduction in production from Cantarell.d In 2005, the

combined production of the KMZ fields was just 316

thousand barrels per day, or about 16 percent of

Cantarell’s production in the same year; however,

Pemex has estimated that KMZ could produce 800

thousand barrels per day by 2008. Achieving that goal

would require 35-percent annual increases in production from KMZ from 2006 to 2008.

Although increasing crude oil production at KMZ

would lessen the degree to which the Cantarell decline

affects Mexico’s total output of crude oil over the next

few years, total proved ultimately recoverable reserves

at the complex are only 21 percent as large as those at

Cantarell. Consequently, KMZ production cannot be

sustained at the levels necessary to counteract

Cantarell’s decline in the long run. If Cantarell does

decline at the expected rate, production at the KMZ

complex would have to increase by about 17 percent

per year to offset the lost production. Since 1993, when

the three major fields at KMZ came on line, annual production increases have averaged 4 percent—significantly less than would be necessary to maintain

Mexico’s current level of output. The IEO2007 reference case projects modest growth for KMZ production

as a result of nitrogen injection.

The Tabasco state, containing the Jujo and Tecominoacan fields, is also frequently mentioned as an oilproducing region with the potential to compensate for

some of Cantarell’s decline; however, the two fields

have combined proven ultimate recoverable reserves

of only 1,690 million barrels, or 11 percent the size of

Cantarell. In addition, their production levels have

been declining for almost two decades, and in 2005

they produced a combined total of only 72 thousand

barrels per day. Pemex has announced plans to

increase production from the Jujo and Tecominoacan

fields significantly by using nitrogen injection, but

even with enhanced recovery, it is unlikely that their

output will be sufficient to slow the rate of decline in

Mexico’s total crude oil output beyond the short term.

The most promising possibility for offsetting the

impact of Cantarell’s decline on the rest of Mexico’s

crude oil production is deepwater production in the

Gulf of Mexico, where recent discoveries include

Chuktah-201, Nab-1, Noxal-1, and Lacach-1 (still

under construction). Production levels from the deepwater fields will depend on Pemex’s financial ability to

implement the technology needed to access them. To

date, the deepest production achieved by Pemex has

been 3,068 feet. Lacach-1 is planned to reach 3,241 feet.e

In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, however, drilling depths

routinely exceed 6,500 feet and can be more than 9,800

feet.

Pemex has been discussing the possibility of service

contracts with foreign oil companies that have experience in exploring deepwater reserves, but agreements

have yet to be reached. So far, the service agreements

(continued on page 34)

aThe Cantarell complex comprises the Akal, Nohoch, Chac, Akal, Kutz, Ixtoc, and Sihil fields. The largest, Akal, produced 2,079 thousand barrels per day or 90 percent of Cantarell’s crude production in 2004.

bI.H.S. Energy database. Unless otherwise noted, all data cited in this text box were obtained or derived from the I.H.S. Energy

database.

c

A. Harrup, “Pemex CEO Says Cantarell Decline by Average of 14 Percent per Year,” Dow Jones Newswires (November 16, 2006).

dPemex Online, Investor Relations, "Issues Related to the Cantarell Complex," (August 12, 2005), web site http://www.pemex.com/

index.cfm?action=content§ionID=8&catID=428&subcatID=3679.

e

Pemex Online, web site www.pemex.com/files/content/dcf_ccw_0609_i_061105.pdf.
34 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico (Continued)

offered by Pemex would return set fees to foreign companies rather than allowing them to own shares of the

oil produced or discovered, because a clause in the

Mexican constitution bars foreign investment in the oil

industry. Although the clause has allowed Pemex to

maintain ownership of all its oil reserves, it also has

prevented it from benefiting from technological

advances that have allowed other national and major

independent oil companies to improve their production opportunities.

Promising deepwater discoveries in the Gulf are taken

into consideration in this year’s assessment of Mexico’s

oil production potential; however, the IEO2007 reference case assumes a considerable time lag between the

discoveries and the date when Pemex will have the

technology necessary to develop the fields effectively,

based on assumptions both about the technology and

about the financial resources available to exploit the

deepwater resources. Pemex spent about $4.5 billion

on deepwater exploration from 2000 to 2004, and it estimates that an additional $15 billion will be needed over

the next 15 years to continue their development. Other

estimates of the necessary capital investment are as

high as $10 billion annually.

Financial resource estimates affect not only the IEO2007 assumptions about Mexico’s deepwater resource

development but also the assumptions about Pemex’s

general exploration and development programs.

Although Pemex increased the amount of funding

allocated to exploration and development programs

in 2005, it spent only $10.3 billion in 2004 and $10.5 billion in 2005.f By some estimates, Pemex may need to

invest as much as $32 billion annually in exploration

and development to prevent a sharp decline in oil

production.g,h The lack of available funds is largely

(continued on page 35)

f

Pemex Online, Investor Relations, "Annual Report 2005: Business Highlights," web site www.pemex.com/files/dcf/

Businesshighlights2005.pdf. Assumed conversion rate is $0.09147 per peso.

gA. Harrup, “Pemex CEO Says Cantarell Decline by Average of 14 Percent per Year,” Dow Jones Newswires (November 16, 2006).

hC. Bremer, “Analysis—Mexico Seen Struggling To Stem Oil Output Decline,” World Oil Market Update (January 18, 2007).

Inter-American Highway

UNITED STATES

GUATEMALA

BELIZE

HONDURAS

Mexico CIty

Mexico

Area of Detail

Zaap

Ku

Abkatun

Akal

(Cantarell)

Maloob

Chuc

Caan

0

0

100 200

100 200

300 Kilometers

300 Miles

Roads Rivers

Mexico’s Major Southern Offshore Oil Fields

Source: I.H.S. Energy Database, web site http://energy.ihs.com.
period, to 3.9 million barrels per day of conventional

production and 0.5 million barrels per day of unconventional production in 2030. Colombia’s current economic

downturn and civil unrest have delayed development of

its oil production infrastructure, but its output is

expected to reach 700,000 barrels per day in 2015, with

continued modest increases over the remainder of the

projection period. Although the current political situation in Ecuador is in transition, there is still optimism

that Ecuador will increase production volumes over the

projection period.

OPEC Production

It is generally acknowledged that OPEC members with

large reserves and relatively low costs for expanding

production capacity can accommodate sizable increases

in the world’s petroleum consumption. In the IEO2007

reference case, the production call on OPEC suppliers

grows at an annual rate of 2.0 percent through 2030

(Figure 37).

Amidst enormous uncertainty, Iraq’s role in OPEC in

the next several years will be of particular interest. In

1999, Iraq expanded its production capacity to 2.8 million barrels per day in order to reach the maximum

export revenue (slightly more than $5.2 billion) allowed

under United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Iraq’s oil production capacity in 2007 is assumed to be

2.0 million barrels per day [2]. Iraq has indicated a desire

to expand production aggressively, to more than 6

million barrels per day, once the security and political

situation in the country has stabilized. Preliminary discussions of exploration projects have already been held

with a number of potential outside investors. In the

IEO2007 reference case, Iraq’s oil production is projected

to reach 3.3 million barrels per day in 2015 and 5.3 million barrels per day in 2030.

Oil production in Iran is projected to increase only

slightly in the early years of the reference case, from 4.1

million barrels per day in 2004 to 4.3 million barrels per

day in 2015, despite the country’s sizable resource base.

In the long run, Iran’s oil production is projected to

reach 5.0 million barrels per day in 2030.

Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are

expected to follow similar growth paths in their oil production sectors. In 2004, levels of production from the

two countries were 2.5 and 2.8 million barrels per day,

respectively; in 2015, they are projected to be 3.2 and 3.8

million barrels per day, respectively; and in 2030 they

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 35

Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico (Continued)

attributed to the redirection of company profits by the

Mexican Congress to support government programs.

Mexico’s Congress annually approves the funding for

and taxation of Pemex, incorporating the expenses and

revenues into the national budget. Although Pemex

typically has shown a net profit before taxes in recent

years, the government has not returned sufficient revenues to the company for it to book a net profit after

taxes. Between 2001 and 2005, taxes on Pemex operations averaged $3.8 billion more than its pre-tax

income. As a result, Pemex has been unable independently to increase investment in exploration.

IEO2007 assumes that the trend of heavy taxation and

minimal government financial support for expanding

exploration activities will continue in the near term.

Thus, over the period from 2006 to 2015, the reference

case projects an annual decline in Mexico’s oil production. After 2015, it is assumed that changes in current

oil industry regulations, whether they concern taxation

rates or rules about foreign investment in the sector,

will be made when the country suffers a significant loss

of profits from declining oil production. The current

assumptions incorporate several different time lags for

the implementation of new investment policies and the

impact of increased funding for exploration and development. A 4-year delay, based on the world average, is

incorporated into the long-term outlook for production

increases after a significant increase in funding for

exploration and development funding.

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Billion Barrels

History Projections

Non-OPEC

Total

OPEC

Figure 37. Cumulative World Production of Crude

Oil and Lease Condensates in the

Reference Case, 1980-2030

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
are projected to be 4.1 and 4.9 million barrels per day,

respectively. Qatar’s production is projected to grow

from 1.0 million barrels per day in 2004 to 2.9 million

barrels per day in 2030, with liquids other than crude oil

expected to provide more than half the increase.

In the past, Saudi Arabia—with its very low development and production costs per barrel of output—has

maintained 1 to 5 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, which has given it considerable market power. It is expected to maintain average spare

capacity of 1 to 2 million barrels per day in the future. In

the reference case, Saudi Arabia’s production is projected to be 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015 and 16.4

million barrels per day in 2030.

Angola became a 1.1 million barrel per day producer in

2004, and the results of deepwater exploration indicate

that its production could increase to as much as 4.0 million barrels per day by 2030. The rapid increase in

Angola’s production demonstrates the importance of

political stability, international investment, and technology advances. Angola’s oil production languished for

the most part during a 20-year civil war, which ended in

2003. It was not until the late 1990s, when prospects for a

peaceful resolution were taking shape, that the foreign

investment needed to support offshore production

began to materialize. Angola’s decision to join OPEC in

January 2007 is not expected to slow the increase in its oil

production, given that other OPEC members were

granted some flexibility while they were rapidly

expanding their production.

In the IEO2007 reference case, OPEC members outside

the Persian Gulf (excluding Angola) are projected to

increase their production capacity only moderately, in

part because of the relatively high cost of capacity

expansion in most of the member countries. There is

some optimism surrounding Nigeria’s potential for offshore production. For Algeria and Libya, the reference

case projects an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in

their combined liquids production from 2004 to 2015,

but after 2015 it is projected to remain fairly flat. Indonesia’s production is expected to decline over the projection period, and Venezuela is expected to see some

increase in production after 2015. Tables G1-G9 in

Appendix G show the ranges of production potential for

both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

Geopolitical issues in a number of the OPEC countries,

including Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria, make it difficult to estimate future production levels. As a result,

there is a high level of uncertainty associated with the

reference case assumptions and projections for OPEC

production through 2030.

The IEO2007 high price case provides one scenario in

which OPEC limits production. Assuming lower availability of non-OPEC conventional resources, OPEC

would be able to exercise greater influence on oil prices.

Production of both OPEC and non-OPEC conventional

liquids is projected to increase in the high price case, but

at a slower rate than projected in the reference case.

Because higher prices would make more unconventional liquids production economically competitive,

non-OPEC liquids production is projected to be nearly

the same in the reference and high price cases, with

unconventional liquids replacing most of the reduction

in conventional production that is projected in the high

world oil price case.

The IEO2007 low price case assumes greater availability

of non-OPEC conventional resources than in the reference case. Oil prices fall as non-OPEC production

expands, and OPEC producers must increase production to meet their revenue requirements. As a result,

OPEC’s options for influencing the market are limited.

In the low price case, OPEC production is projected to be

about the same as in the reference case, but with lower

total revenues.

Oil Reserves and Resources

Historically, estimates of world oil reserves have generally trended upward (Figure 38) [3]. As of January 1,

2007, proved world oil reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas

Journal,

7 were estimated at 1,317 billion barrels—24 billion barrels (about 2 percent) higher than the estimate

36 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007

0

500

1,000

1,500

Billion Barrels

OPEC Middle East

Non-OPEC

OPEC Total

World Total

Figure 38. World Crude Oil Reserves, 1980-2007

Note: Reserves include crude oil (including lease condensates) and natural gas plant liquids.

Sources: 1980-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,”

International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell

Publishing, various issues). 1994-2007: Oil & Gas Journal

(various issues).

7Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and

prices. Oil reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the most

recent changes. Changes made to individual countries’ reserves during 2006 are not likely to be reflected in the reserves reported here.
for 2006 [4] (Table 3). In addition to growth in remaining

oil reserves, production from conventional crude oil and

condensate reserves, natural gas plant liquids, Canadian

oil sands, and Venezuelan ultra-heavy oil during 2006

were estimated to be 30 billion barrels. Taken together,

the reserve increases and production imply that 54 billion barrels of reserve discoveries and growth occurred

during 2006, or an increase of about 4 percent.

Reserve estimates for oil, natural gas, and coal are difficult to develop. EIA develops estimates of reserves for

the United States but not for foreign countries. As a convenience to the public, EIA makes available global

reserve estimates from the Oil & Gas Journal, World Oil,

and BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, and uses the

data in its analyses.

Proved reserves of crude oil are the estimated quantities

that geological and engineering data demonstrate with

reasonable certainty can be recovered in future years

from known reservoirs, assuming existing economic

and operating conditions. Companies whose stocks are

publicly traded on U.S. stock markets are required by

the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to report

their holdings of domestic and international proved

reserves, following specific guidelines. Country-level

estimates of proved reserves are developed from the

data reported to the SEC, from foreign government

reports, and from international geologic assessments.

Estimates are not always updated annually, and some

countries invest in exploration only to maintain a target

level of proved reserves. Thus, historical data series may

be relatively flat over some periods, with sudden jumps

in others.

Since 2000, the largest net increase in estimated proved

oil reserves has been made in Canada, with the addition

of 174 billion barrels of Canadian oil sands as a conventional reserve.8 Iranian oil reserves have increased by

46.6 billion barrels, or 52 percent, since 2000. Kazakhstan

has had the third-largest increase, 24.6 billion barrels,

since 2000. The 10 countries with the largest net

increases in reserves between 2000 and 2007 are listed in

Table 4. According to Oil & Gas Journal, 56 percent of the

world’s total proved oil reserves are located in the Middle East (Figure 39). Among the top 20 reserve holders in

2007, 11 are OPEC member countries that, together,

account for 65 percent of the world’s total reserves

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 37

Table 3. World Oil Reserves by Country as of

January 1, 2007

(Billion Barrels)

Country Oil Reserves

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 262.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179.2

Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.3

Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.0

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.5

United Arab Emirates. . . . . 97.8

Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.0

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.5

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.2

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.0

United States . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0

Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0

Rest of World . . . . . . . . . . . 65.5

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,317.4

“Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas

Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.

Table 4. World Oil Reserves: Ten Largest Gains

and Losses, 2000-2007, by Country

(Billion Barrels)

Country Change in Oil Reserves

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174.3

Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.6

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4

Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0

Romania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.8

Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9

Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.0

Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.1

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . -1.2

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . -1.3

Australia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.3

Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.9

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -8.0

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -16.0

“Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas

Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.

8As reported by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy classifies roughly 12 billion barrels of oil sands as reserves, based on the amount that is “under active development.”
(Table 3). The largest declines in oil reserves between

2000 and 2007 were reported in Mexico (16.0 billion barrels), China (8.0 billion barrels), Norway (2.9 billion barrels), Australia (1.3 billion barrels), and the United

Kingdom (1.3 billion barrels).

The most common measure of the adequacy of proved

reserves relative to annual production is the reserve-toproduction (r/p) ratio, which describes the number of

years of remaining production from current proved

reserves at current production rates. For the past 25

years, the U.S. r/p ratio has been between 9 and 12 years,

and the top 40 countries in conventional crude oil production rarely have reported r/p ratios below 8 years.

The major oil-producing countries of OPEC have maintained r/p ratios of 20 to 100 years (Table 5).

References

38 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1. T. Murray, “Pemex To Fund Increased Share of

Capital Spending from Operating Cashflow,” The

Oil Daily, Vol. 56, No. 100 (May 25, 2006), p. 4.

2. International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report

(Paris, France, May 2006), p. 14, web site http://

omrpublic.iea.org.

3. Energy Information Administration, “International

Petroleum (Oil) Reserves and Resources,” web site

www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/

oilreserves.html.

4. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil

& Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006),

pp. 24-25.

739

213

114

103

100

33

15

Middle East

North America

Africa

Central and South America

Eurasia

Asia

Europe

0 200 400 600 800

Billion Barrels

World Total:

1,317 Billion Barrels

Figure 39. World Proved Oil Reserves

by Geographic Region as of

January 1, 2007

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil &

Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.

Table 5. World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production and Reserve-To-Production Ratios by Country,

2005

Country

2005 Production

(Million Barrels per Day)

2005 Share of World

Production (Percent)

Reserve-to-Production

Ratio (Years)

Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.55 13.3 75

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.04 12.6 18

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.18 7.2 11

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.14 5.7 83

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 5.0 14

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.33 4.6 12

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.70 3.7 9

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.63 3.6 37

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . 2.54 3.5 106

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.53 3.5 110

Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.98 2.7 107

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.88 2.6 168

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.80 2.5 18

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . 1.65 2.3 7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.3 18

Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.3 65

Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.8 10

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.26 1.7 12

Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.07 1.5 12

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.05 1.5 23

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.84 1.2 50

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.77 1.1 19

Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.75 1.0 11

Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.70 1.0 10

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.66 0.9 22

Sources: 2005 Production: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006). Reserves: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.
Chapter 4

Natural Gas

In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows

more than twice as fast as in the OECD countries. Production increases in the non-OECD

region account for more than 90 percent of the growth in world production from 2004 to 2030.

Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases from

100 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 163 trillion cubic feet in

2030 in the IEO2007 reference case (Figure 40). By energy

source, the projected increase in natural gas consumption is second only to coal. Natural gas remains a key

fuel in the electric power and industrial sectors. In the

power sector, natural gas is an attractive choice for new

generating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency.

Natural gas also burns more cleanly than coal or petroleum products, and as more governments begin implementing national or regional plans to reduce carbon

dioxide emissions, they may encourage the use of natural gas to displace liquids and coal.

Much of the world’s natural gas use is for industrial sector processes. The industrial sector accounted for 44 percent of world natural gas consumption in 2004 and is

projected to account for 43 percent in 2030. With world

oil prices expected to remain high relative to historical

levels throughout the projection period, natural gas is

projected to displace liquids in the industrial sector to

some extent. Industrial use of natural gas is projected to

increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from

2004 to 2030, as compared with an average increase of

1.1 percent per year for liquids consumption in the

industrial sector.

In 2004, OECD member countries accounted for just

over one-half of the world’s total natural gas use, nonOECD Europe and Eurasia accounted for one-quarter,

and the other non-OECD countries accounted for the

remainder (Figure 41). In the IEO2007 reference case,

natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries

grows more than twice as fast as consumption in the

OECD countries, with 2.6-percent average annual

growth from 2004 to 2030 for non-OECD countries, compared with an average of 1.2 percent for the OECD countries. Natural gas demand in the non-OECD countries

accounts for 71 percent of the total world increment in

natural gas consumption over the projection period. In

the non-OECD countries (excluding non-OECD Europe

and Eurasia) natural gas use increases from less than

one-quarter of the world total in 2004 to 35 percent in

2030.

The OECD countries accounted for 40 percent of the

world’s total natural gas production and 52 percent of

total natural gas consumption in 2004; in 2030, they are

projected to account for only 27 percent of production

and 43 percent of consumption. Natural gas production

in the OECD nations increases by an average of only 0.4

percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, whereas

their demand increases by 1.2 percent per year. As a

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 39

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

50

100

150

200

Trillion Cubic Feet

Industrial Electric Power Other

Figure 40. World Natural Gas Consumption

by End-Use Sector, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

25

50

75

100

Trillion Cubic Feet

OECD Non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia

Other

Non-OECD

Figure 41. World Natural Gas Consumption

by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
result, the OECD countries are projected to rely increasingly on imports to meet natural gas demand, with a

growing percentage of traded natural gas coming in the

form of LNG. In 2030, more than one-third of the natural

gas consumed in OECD countries is projected to come

from other parts of the world, up from 22 percent in

2004.

Reserves and Resources

Historically, world natural gas reserves have, for the

most part, trended upward (Figure 42). As of January 1,

2007, proved world natural gas reserves, as reported by

Oil & Gas Journal,

9 were estimated at 6,183 trillion cubic

feet—71 trillion cubic feet (about 1 percent) higher than

the estimate for 2006 [1].

The largest revisions to natural gas reserve estimates

were reported for Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and

China. Kazakhstan added an estimated 35 trillion cubic

feet (a 54-percent increase over 2006 proved reserves),

Turkmenistan 29 trillion cubic feet (41 percent), and

China 27 trillion cubic feet (50 percent). The United

States also reported an increase of 12 trillion cubic feet

over its 2006 reserves—a 6-percent increase and the

largest increment in U.S. annual reserves since 1970.

Declines in natural gas reserves were reported for the

Netherlands (a decrease of 12 trillion cubic feet), Trinidad and Tobago (7 trillion cubic feet), Argentina (3 trillion cubic feet), Nigeria (3 trillion cubic feet), and Italy,

Norway, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia (about

2 trillion cubic feet each).

Almost three-quarters of the world’s natural gas

reserves are located in the Middle East and Eurasia

(Figure 43). Russia, Iran, and Qatar combined accounted

for about 58 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves

as of January 1, 2007 (Table 6). Reserves in the rest of the

world are fairly evenly distributed on a regional basis.

Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consumption, particularly over the past decade, most regional

reserves-to-production ratios are substantial. Worldwide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated at 65

years [2]. Central and South America has a reserves-toproduction ratio of about 52 years, Russia 80 years, and

Africa 88 years. The Middle East’s reserves-to-production ratio exceeds 100 years.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses

the long-term production potential of worldwide petroleum resources (oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids).

According to the most recent USGS estimates, released

in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and adjusted to

reflect current proved reserves, a significant volume of

natural gas remains to be discovered. Worldwide undiscovered natural gas is estimated at 4,136 trillion cubic

feet (Figure 44). Within the total natural gas resource

base, an estimated 3,000 trillion cubic feet is in

“stranded” reserves, usually located too far away from

40 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000 Trillion Cubic Feet

OECD

Total

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Other Non-OECD

Figure 42. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region,

1980-2007

Sources: 1980-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,”

International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell

Publishing, various issues). 1994-2007: Oil & Gas Journal

(various issues).

2,566

2,017

484

419

277

241

179

Middle East

Eurasia

Africa

Asia

North America

Central and South America

Europe

0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Trillion Cubic Feet

World Total:

6,183 Trillion Cubic Feet

Figure 43. World Natural Gas Reserves

by Geographic Region as of

January 1, 2007

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil &

Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23.

9Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and

prices. Natural gas reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the

most recent changes. U.S. proved reserves of natural gas are reported by the Energy Information Administration and are defined as the estimated quantities of natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2006, which analysis of geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. Significant

natural gas discoveries made in 2006 are not likely to be reflected in the reported reserves.
pipeline infrastructure or population centers for its

transportation to be economical. Of the new natural gas

resources expected to be added through 2025, reserve

growth accounts for 2,347 trillion cubic feet.

World Natural Gas Supply

Production increases in the non-OECD countries are

projected to account for more than 90 percent of the

world’s total growth in production from 2004 to 2030

(Figure 45). In the non-OECD countries, production is

projected to grow by an average 2.6 percent per year,

from 59 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 119 trillion cubic feet

in 2030. In particular, Russia and the Middle East each

account for around 20 percent of the increase in annual

production over the projection period. Both regions are

expected to provide connections to natural gas markets

in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, with Russia exporting

mainly by pipeline and most Middle East exports being

shipped as LNG.

Russia has an extensive pipeline network reaching into

Europe and has proposed the construction of pipelines

to China and South Korea. In addition, Russia is

beginning to enter LNG markets. It has traded pipeline

gas for Atlantic LNG cargos, has plans to develop LNG

export facilities to serve the Atlantic market, and soon

will start exporting LNG from its Pacific coast. The

Middle East already exports significant quantities of

LNG to customers in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. In 2005, 15 percent of the LNG exports from the

region went to North America and Europe and 85 percent to Asia. Qatar has several LNG export projects

under construction that are targeted for sales to North

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 41

Table 6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country

as of January 1, 2007

Country

Reserves

(Trillion

Cubic Feet)

Percent of

World

Total

World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,183 100.0

Top 20 Countries. . . . . . . . 5,602 90.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,680 27.2

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 974 15.8

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 911 14.7

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 240 3.9

United Arab Emirates . . . . 214 3.5

United States. . . . . . . . . . . 204 3.3

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 2.9

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 2.6

Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 2.5

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 1.8

Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6

Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 1.6

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 1.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 1.3

Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 1.2

Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 1.1

Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 0.9

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 0.9

Rest of World. . . . . . . . . . . 581 9.4

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil &

Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23.

000

2,347

6,183

4,136

Proven

Reserves

Undiscovered

Natural Gas

Reserve

Growth

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Trillion Cubic Feet

Middle East

Eurasia

Africa

Asia

North America

Central/South America

Europe

Figure 44. World Natural Gas Resources

by Geographic Region, 2006-2025

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, web site http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/

WorldEnergy/DDS-60; “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18,

2006), pp. 22-23; and Energy Information Administration estimates.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

50

100

150

200

Trillion Cubic Feet

OECD

Russia

Middle East

Other Non-OECD

Figure 45. World Natural Gas Production

by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
America and Europe. In December 2006, however, Qatar

announced that the LNG from one project originally targeted for Atlantic buyers had been sold to Asian buyers

in the Pacific basin.

Africa and non-OECD Asia (excluding China and India)

are expected to be important sources of natural gas production in the future. For each of the two regions, natural gas production in 2030 is projected to be some 10

trillion cubic feet above 2004 production levels. The two

regions combined accounted for 14 percent of the

world’s natural gas production in 2004; in 2030, their

combined share is projected to be 21 percent. A significant portion of the production from both regions is

exported. In 2004, 26 percent of the natural gas production from the countries of non-OECD Asia (primarily

from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar [formerly Burma]) and 50 percent of the production from

African countries was for export. In 2030, the export

share of production from non-OECD Asia is projected to

fall to 10 percent, as domestic consumption takes precedence over exports, whereas the export share of Africa’s

production is projected to increase. Several pipelines

from North Africa to Europe are under consideration,

and LNG export capacity in West Africa continues to

expand.

Historically, the United States has been both the largest

producer and the largest consumer of natural gas in

North America, and Canada has been the primary

source of U.S. natural gas imports. In 2004, Canada provided 85 percent of gross U.S. imports of natural gas.

Although Canada’s unconventional and Arctic production both are expected to increase over the projection

period, and LNG imports into Eastern Canada are

expected to begin by the end of the decade, those supply

increases are not expected to be sufficient to offset a

decline in conventional production in Canada’s largest

producing basin, the Western Sedimentary Basin. Gross

U.S. imports of LNG are projected to exceed gross pipeline imports from Canada after 2015, and Canada’s share

of gross U.S. imports is projected to decline to 25 percent

in 2030.

Rising natural gas prices are expected to make it economical for two major North American pipelines that

have long been in the planning stages to come online.

The first, a Canadian pipeline to transport natural gas

from the MacKenzie Delta, is expected to become operational in 2012. The second, an Alaska pipeline, is

expected to begin transporting natural gas from Alaska

to the lower 48 States in 2018, contributing significantly

to U.S. domestic supply. Alaska’s natural gas production accounts for all of the projected growth in domestic

U.S. conventional natural gas production from 2004 to

2030, with flows on the Alaska pipeline increasing

to 2.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030. As a result, Alaskan

production is projected to account for 22 percent of the

increase in U.S. natural gas supply in 2030 relative to the

2004 total.

A large portion of North America’s remaining technically recoverable resource base of natural gas consists of

unconventional sources, which include tight sands,

shale, and coalbed methane. With most of the large

onshore conventional fields in the United States already

having been discovered, the United States, like Canada,

must look to these costlier sources of supply to make up

for declines in conventional production. Unconventional production, especially from tight sands formations, is expected to be a significant source of U.S.

incremental supply, increasing from 40 percent of total

domestic production in 2004 to 50 percent in 2030 and

accounting for 28 percent of the increase in U.S. natural

gas supply in 2030 relative to the 2004 total.

By far the largest source of U.S. incremental natural gas

supply (50 percent of the increase in 2030 relative to

2004) is expected to be LNG. Currently, the United States

has five LNG import facilities in operation with a total

peak capacity slightly above 5.8 billion cubic feet per

day. Four additional facilities are under construction in

the Gulf of Mexico. When completed, the four new terminals will more than double U.S. LNG import capacity.

Peak annual U.S. LNG import capacity in 2030 is projected to reach 6.5 trillion cubic feet, with actual imports

of 4.5 trillion cubic feet (Figure 46).

The growth of U.S. LNG imports is expected to be strong

through most of the projection period. The significant

42 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

Trillion Cubic Feet

Overseas LNG

Canada

Mexico

History Projections

Figure 46. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas

by Source, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

Annual Energy Review 2005, DOE/EIA-0384(2005) (Washington, DC, August 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer.

Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www.

eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.
growth in U.S. LNG imports is indicative of the country’s growing dependence on imports and the increasing

globalization of natural gas markets. The emerging LNG

markets in Canada and Mexico, both of which have facilities either in operation (in Altamira, Mexico) or under

construction, also highlight this trend.

Mexico has significant untapped reserves of natural gas,

but the Mexican government does not have the

resources needed to develop them and to date has been

relatively unsuccessful in attracting foreign capital. Currently, only the state oil and natural gas company,

Pemex, is allowed to have any ownership interest in

Mexico’s oil and natural gas reserves, which makes participation in the development of Mexico’s oil and gas

resources unattractive to foreign investors.

Outside North America, the Australia/New Zealand

OECD region is projected to see the most rapid expansion of natural gas production among all the world

regions (but starting from a much lower point than

many other producing regions). Production in Australia/New Zealand is projected to grow by an average of

4.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 7), and

most of the increase is expected to be used for LNG

exports. Australia currently has 0.75 trillion cubic feet of

LNG export capacity from five liquefaction trains,

including four at the Northwest Shelf project and one at

the Darwin project that began operation in February

2006. More than 2.5 trillion cubic feet per year of additional LNG liquefaction capacity has been proposed.

The Australia/New Zealand region is projected to

account for 5 percent of the growth in world natural gas

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 43

Table 7. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Region/Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004-2030

OECD North America. . . . . . . . . 26.9 28.1 28.2 29.3 29.2 29.6 0.4

United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.0 19.5 19.7 20.9 20.7 20.7 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.9 6.0 -0.3

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.1 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4

South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.3

Total OECD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.9 42.0 42.5 43.8 44.1 44.5 0.4

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 28.6 33.2 36.4 39.5 42.4 45.2 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.4 24.9 27.4 30.0 32.6 35.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 8.3 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.0 1.8

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 13.6 16.4 19.1 22.2 25.2 3.3

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 3.5

Other non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.6 11.5 13.5 15.8 18.4 3.1

Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 13.8 17.4 20.1 21.8 24.1 3.3

Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 7.8 9.5 11.1 13.0 15.1 4.0

Central and South America. . . . 4.5 5.8 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.2 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 4.1

Other Central /South America . . 4.2 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.2 2.5

Total Non-OECD. . . . . . . . . . . 58.9 74.3 86.7 97.4 107.8 118.8 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 116.3 129.2 141.2 151.9 163.3 1.9

a

Includes supplemental production or forecast discrepancy. For details, see Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual

Energy Outlook 2007, p. 159, Table A13, “Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices.”

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2004: EIA, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: United

States: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/

aeo. Others: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
production from 2004 to 2030 and 3 percent of total production in 2030.

Investment in Australia’s natural gas sector projects has

been helped by the country’s reputation as a stable political environment that takes no state equity in reserves or

LNG assets. Even in Australia, however, state involvement has a bearing on project economics. The Gorgon

LNG project to develop reserves off Australia’s northwest coast faces not only stringent environmental

requirements but also, in an agreement with the Western

Australia state government, a requirement that the project must allocate 15 percent of Gorgon reserves for

domestic consumption. The Western Australia government negotiated a similar agreement with the Northwest Shelf LNG developers, reserving 4.7 trillion cubic

feet of Northwest Shelf natural gas for the domestic market. The requirement for domestic sales has kept natural

gas prices in Western Australia below the LNG netback

equivalent; however, all of the reserved natural gas has

been consumed or allocated, and the Western Australia

government is now looking at options for applying

domestic reservation requirements to all future liquefaction projects that would process offshore gas in Western

Australia [3].

Increasing state involvement in the upstream natural

gas activities of several large reserve holders throughout

the world is threatening to delay or discourage investments in new production and export capacity. In May

2006, Bolivia nationalized its energy resources, prompting investors to suspend further investment, including

suspending plans to expand export pipelines. In January

2006, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez proposed

changing the constitution to make both natural gas and

petroleum assets subject to state control. And in October

2006, Russia announced that there would be no foreign

ownership in the giant Shtokman natural gas reserves,

although it may bring foreign firms in as contractors to

help with the development. Also in Russia, the majority

state-owned firm Gazprom has gained a controlling

share in the Sakhalin-2 LNG project, owned by a consortium led by Royal Dutch/Shell, ending disputes with

authorities about environmental issues that had

plagued the project [4].

World Natural Gas Demand

OECD North America

Natural gas consumption in North America (Figure 47)

is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.0

percent from 2004 to 2030. The average annual growth

rate for natural gas demand in the United States is projected to be 0.6 percent, significantly less than in Canada

and Mexico, largely because of the impact of higher natural gas prices and supply concerns in U.S. natural gas

markets. As North America’s largest consumer, the

United States accounted for more than 80 percent of the

27.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas consumed in North

America in 2004. As a result of the relatively slow

growth in U.S. demand and robust growth in Canada

and Mexico, the U.S. share of North America’s total natural gas consumption in 2030 falls to 74 percent.

In 2004, natural-gas-fired plants accounted for less than

20 percent of electricity generation in the United States,

while coal-fired plants accounted for about 50 percent.

The natural gas share of generation is projected to rise to

22 percent in 2015. After 2015, higher natural gas prices,

along with tax incentives for clean coal technologies, are

expected to discourage the construction of new natural-gas-fired plants in favor of coal-fired plants, leading

to a decline in the natural gas share to 16 percent and an

increase in the coal share to 57 percent in 2030. U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity generation is projected to peak in 2020 at 7.2 trillion cubic feet, followed

by a decline to 5.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030.

In Canada, natural gas consumption in the residential

and commercial sectors is expected to increase steadily

at rates of 0.5 and 0.7 percent per year, respectively.

Strong growth rates of 2.2 percent per year in Canada’s

consumption of natural gas for electricity generation

and 2.1 percent per year for industrial uses—including

vast quantities of natural gas consumed in the mining of

the country’s oil sands deposits—are the main contributors to Canada’s projected consumption growth. The

expected growth in domestic consumption, coupled

with a projected production decline of 0.3 percent per

year, would leave less Canadian natural gas available

for export. In 2004, Canada consumed 52 percent of its

44 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

Trillion Cubic Feet

United States

Canada

Mexico

Figure 47. Natural Gas Consumption in

North America by Country, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
own natural gas production. In 2030, it is expected to

consume 87 percent of its production domestically.

In Mexico, strong growth in natural gas consumption is

expected in all sectors, with total consumption more

than doubling between 2004 and 2030. Although the

absolute quantities are small, average annual growth of

3.8 percent and 3.7 percent are expected for natural gas

consumption in the residential and commercial sectors,

respectively. Industrial consumption is projected to

almost double, and consumption for electricity generation is expected to almost triple. Mexico’s natural gas

production is expected to double between 2004 and

2030, from 1.5 trillion cubic feet to 3.0 trillion cubic feet,

but the projected growth in consumption over the

period (2.4 trillion cubic feet) far exceeds the production

growth, leaving Mexico dependent on LNG-exporting

countries and on pipeline imports from the United

States for needed supplies. Mexico remains a net

importer of natural gas from the United States throughout the projection period.

OECD Europe

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel

source in OECD Europe, with demand increasing at an

annual average rate of 1.4 percent, from 18.8 trillion

cubic feet in 2004 to 23.0 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and

26.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 48). Growth in natural gas use for power generation is projected to account

for the majority of total incremental gas use to 2030. Natural-gas-fired generation is less carbon-intensive than

oil- or coal-fired generation and is expected to remain

more cost-competitive than renewable energy, making

natural gas the fuel of choice for new generating capacity in OECD Europe.

OECD Asia

In Japan, natural gas consumption is projected to grow

on average by 1.4 percent per year over the projection

period, from 3.0 trillion cubic in 2004 to 4.3 trillion cubic

feet in 2030 (Figure 49). The strongest growth in consumption is projected for the electric power sector, averaging 1.7 percent annually from 2004 to 2030.

Total natural gas consumption in South Korea is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent

from 2004 to 2030. In 2004, the residential sector was the

country’s predominant source of demand for natural

gas, accounting for 39 percent of the total. The electric

power sector was a close second at 33 percent of total

natural gas use, followed by the industrial sector at 20

percent of the total.

South Korea has large seasonal swings in demand for

natural gas, importing more than twice as much LNG at

its annual winter peak as at its lowest point during the

summer—primarily to meet demand for heating in the

residential sector. For a country that imports all its natural gas supplies as LNG and has no underground storage facilities, this can be an expensive undertaking.

Korea Gas Corporation paid as much as $26 per million

Btu for LNG on the spot market in 2005 and 2006, when

it faced steep competition for winter cargoes [5]. In the

reference case projection, however, with nearly flat population growth, South Korea is expected to see the

growth of natural gas consumption in its electric power

and industrial sectors outpace growth in the residential

sector, potentially moderating seasonal swings in overall demand.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 45

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

Trillion Cubic Feet

Figure 48. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD

Europe, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

2

4

6

8

Trillion Cubic Feet

South Korea

Australia/New Zealand

Japan

Total

Figure 49. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia

by Country, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
In Australia and New Zealand, the industrial sector currently is the predominant consumer of natural gas and is

projected to account for more than 50 percent of all natural gas consumption in the region throughout the projection period. Natural gas is the fastest growing fuel in

Australia and New Zealand in the IEO2007 reference

case, accounting for 30 percent of the projected growth

in the region’s total energy consumption from 2004 to

2030. It is also the fastest growing fuel in the region’s

electric power sector. Although Australia has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, several of the government’s

environmental policies have been put in place to help

stimulate increases in natural gas use for electric power

generation and to moderate growth in the use of coal, of

which Australia has large reserves.

In January 2003, the government of New South Wales

instituted a greenhouse gas abatement scheme that

applies to electricity retailers [6]. Also, starting in January 2005, the Queensland government’s “13 percent Gas

Scheme” requires all electricity retailers to source at least

13 percent of their electricity from natural-gas-fired generation. The scheme allows certificates from qualified

generation to be traded independently of the electricity

generated. Electricity retailers are then required to

acquire and turn in certificates representing their

13-percent minimum. The scheme aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and boost the natural gas industry

in Queensland [7].

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

The non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region is more reliant on natural gas than any other region in the world.

Russia is second only to the United States in total natural

gas consumption, with demand totaling 16.0 trillion

cubic feet in 2004 and representing 55 percent of Russia’s

total energy consumption (Figure 50). The other countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia met 44 percent of

their combined total energy needs with natural gas in

2004, consuming 8.4 trillion cubic feet.

Natural gas intensity (defined as the amount consumed

per dollar of GDP) in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is

greater than in any other region of the world, although it

has improved in recent years from 9.7 thousand Btu per

dollar of GDP in 1996 to 7.5 thousand Btu per dollar in

2004. In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas intensity

in the region is projected to continue improving

(decreasing) at an average rate of 2.8 percent per year

from 2004 to 2030. Even at that rate, however, natural

gas intensity in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is not

projected to equal the 2004 level of North America’s natural gas intensity until after 2030.

Non-OECD Asia

The fastest growth in natural gas consumption among

all regions is projected for non-OECD Asia, which

accounted for only 8.5 percent of the world total in 2004

but is projected to account for almost 30 percent of the

increase in total natural gas consumption from 2004 to

2030. Natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia more

than triples in the IEO2007 reference case, from 8.5 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 27.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030

(Figure 51).

Led by demand in China and India, natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia is projected to expand by

4.6 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2030.

In both China and India, natural gas currently is a

minor fuel in the overall energy mix, representing only

46 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

Trillion Cubic Feet

Russia Other

Figure 50. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Trillion Cubic Feet

China

India

Other

Figure 51. Natural Gas Consumption in

Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
3 percent and 8 percent, respectively, of total primary

energy consumption in 2004; however, both countries

are rapidly expanding infrastructure to serve demand.

China received it first-ever LNG cargo in mid-2006

under a long-term contract with Australia.

India increased its spot and short-term LNG purchases

in 2006, reportedly paying more than $9 per million

Btu for one cargo (a year earlier, Royal Dutch/Shell

could not find customers for LNG from its Hazira

regasification terminal at a price of about $8 per million

Btu). Natural gas shortages in India have reportedly left

natural-gas-fired electric power plants and fertilizer

plants underutilized in the past few years. In the

IEO2007 reference case, India’s natural gas consumption

is projected to rise rapidly in the mid-term, growing by

6.2 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2015. As

international natural gas prices gain acceptance in India,

and as supplies from the Krishna-Godavari basin come

on line around 2010, domestic natural gas supply is

expected to catch up with currently underserved

demand and also expand to serve new demand.

Natural gas supplies have also been tight in other parts

of non-OECD Asia. LNG exports from Indonesia’s Arun

and Bontang liquefaction plants have been declining

steadily, as dwindling production from the aging fields

has been diverted to satisfy local demand. Startup of the

Tangguh liquefaction plant, scheduled for 2009, should

boost Indonesia’s exports for a time, but it is expected

that the country will soon lose its place (to Qatar) as the

world’s largest exporter of LNG.

Growth in natural gas consumption is projected to outstrip production growth in the non-OECD Asia region

over the projection period. In 2004, net exports from the

region were equal to 19 percent of its total production. In

the IEO2007 reference case, its net exports fall to 4 percent of production in 2015, and in 2020 the non-OECD

Asia region is projected to be a net importer, with

importing exceeding production by 9 percent.

Other Non-OECD

In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption

grows at average annual rates of 2.5 percent in the Middle East and 3.3 percent in Africa from 2004 to 2030. Natural gas consumption in the Middle East almost doubles

over the projection period, and consumption in Africa

more than doubles (Figure 52). Before 2015, most of the

increase in natural gas production in both regions is projected to be for export projects. As a result, the export

share of production increases from 2004 to 2015 in both

regions (Figure 53). After 2015, production increases in

the two regions are expected to be directed more toward

domestic consumption, and their export shares of production show only slight increases from 2015 to 2030.

In Central and South America, natural gas is the fastest

growing fuel source, with demand increasing on average by 2.6 percent per year, from 4.1 trillion cubic feet in

2004 to 7.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Brazil accounts for

more than 20 percent of the projected increase in the

region’s consumption of natural gas in 2030 relative to

total consumption in 2004.

References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 47

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

40

Trillion Cubic Feet

Middle East

Africa

Central and South America

Total

Figure 52. Natural Gas Consumption in Central

and South America, Africa, and the

Middle East, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

13

24

30 31 31 32

50

58 58 58 59 59

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

20

40

60

80

Percent

Middle East Africa

Figure 53. Export Share of Natural Gas Production

in the Middle East and Africa, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil

& Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006),

pp. 22-23.
48 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (London,

UK, June 2006), p. 22.

3. State of Western Australia, Department of Industry

and Resources, “WA Government Policy on

Securing Domestic Gas Supplies, Consultation

Paper” (February 2006).

4. A. Neff, “Gazprom Secures Controlling Stake in

Sakhalin02 Project in US$7.45-bil. Deal,” Global

Insight, Inc., Energy: Sector Analysis, web site

www.globalinsight.com (December 22, 2006).

5. “Kogas boosts Qatari LNG,” International Gas

Report, No. 561 (November 17, 2006), pp. 17-18.
Chapter 5

Coal

In the IEO2007 reference case, world coal consumption increases by 74 percent from 2004 to

2030, international coal trade increases by 44 percent from 2005 to 2030, and coal’s share

of world energy consumption increases from 26 percent in 2004 to 28 percent in 2030.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world coal consumption

increases by 74 percent over the projection period, from

114.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 199.0 quadrillion Btu in

2030 (Figure 54). Coal consumption increases by 2.6 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2015, then slows to

an average increase of 1.8 percent annually from 2015 to

2030. World GDP and primary energy consumption also

grow more rapidly in the first half than in the second

half of the projections, reflecting a gradual slowdown of

economic growth in non-OECD Asia. Regionally,

increased use of coal in non-OECD countries accounts

for 85 percent of the total growth in world coal consumption projected over the entire IEO2007 projection

horizon.

In 2004, coal accounted for 26 percent of total world

energy consumption (Figure 55). Of the coal produced

worldwide in 2004, 65 percent was shipped to electricity

producers, 31 percent to industrial consumers, and most

of the remaining 4 percent to coal consumers in the residential and commercial sectors. Coal’s share of total

world energy consumption is projected to increase to 28

percent in 2030, and in the electric power sector its share

is projected to rise from 43 percent in 2004 to 45 percent

in 2030.

Although coal currently is the second-largest fuel source

of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (behind oil),

accounting for 39 percent of the world total in 2004, it is

projected to become the largest source by 2010. The two

key factors underlying the increase are a more rapid projected growth rate for world coal consumption than for

oil consumption and the fact that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy output are higher for coal than

for oil or natural gas. In 2030, coal’s share of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions is projected to be 43

percent, compared with 36 percent for oil and 21 percent

for natural gas.

International coal trade increases in the reference case

from 18.4 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 26.5 quadrillion Btu

in 2030—an increase of 44 percent. Because the largest

increase in consumption is projected for coal that is both

produced and consumed domestically in China, the

share of total world coal consumption accounted for by

internationally traded coal falls from 15 percent in 2004

to 13 percent in 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 49

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

OECD

Total

Non-OECD

Figure 54. World Coal Consumption by Region,

1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

43

22

3

26

44

23

3

27

45

24

2

28

Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent

2004 2015 2030

Figure 55. Coal Share of World Energy

Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2015,

and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA,

System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
World Coal Reserves

Total recoverable reserves of coal10 around the world are

estimated at 998 billion tons11—reflecting a current

reserves-to-production ratio of 16412 (Table 8) [1]. Historically, estimates of world recoverable coal reserves,

although relatively stable, have declined gradually from

1,174 billion tons in 1990 to 1,083 billion tons in 2000 and

998 billion tons in 2003 [2]. The most recent assessment

of world coal reserves includes a substantial downward

adjustment for Germany, from 73 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves to 7 billion tons. The reassessment primarily reflects more restrictive criteria for the depth and

thickness parameters associated with both underground

and surface minable seams of coal [3].

Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 67 percent of the world’s recoverable reserves are located in

four countries: the United States (27 percent), Russia (17

percent), China (13 percent), and India (10 percent). In

2004, these four countries, taken together, accounted for

66 percent of total world coal production [4]. By rank,

anthracite and bituminous coal account for 53 percent of

the world’s estimated recoverable coal reserves (on a

tonnage basis), subbituminous coal accounts for 30 percent, and lignite accounts for 17 percent.

Quality and geological characteristics of coal deposits

are important parameters for coal reserves. Coal is a heterogeneous source of energy, with quality (e.g., characteristics such as heat, sulfur, and ash content) varying

significantly by region and even within individual coal

seams. At the top end of the quality spectrum are premium-grade bituminous coals, or coking coals, used to

manufacture coke for the steelmaking process. Coking

coals produced in the United States have an estimated

heat content of 27.4 million Btu per ton and relatively

low sulfur content of approximately 0.8 percent by

weight [5]. At the other end of the spectrum are reserves

of low-Btu lignite. On a Btu basis, lignite reserves show

considerable variation. Estimates published by the International Energy Agency for 2004 indicate that the average heat content of lignite in major producing countries

varies from a low of 4.4 million Btu per ton in Greece to a

high of 12.3 million Btu per ton in Canada [6].

World Coal Production

From 2004 to 2030, coal production in China, the United

States, and India, driven by growing coal consumption,

is projected to increase by 50.4 quadrillion Btu, 11.1 quadrillion Btu, and 5.7 quadrillion Btu, respectively (Table

9). It is assumed that most of the demand for coal in

50 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Table 8. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003

(Billion Short Tons)

Region/Country

Bituminous and

Anthracite Subbituminous Lignite Total

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528.8 298.1 170.9 997.7

United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.7 110.3 33.5 267.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.1 107.4 11.5 173.1

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.6 37.1 20.5 126.2

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.3 0.0 2.6 101.9

Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 50.1 18.7 31.3 100.1

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.6 2.7 41.9 87.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.3 0.2 * 55.5

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 5.0 18.8 43.3

Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.0 8.1 11.5

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.1

Other Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 2.2 0.1 10.8

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 1.0 2.5 7.3

Otherb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 a

Data for the United States represent recoverable coal estimates as of January 1, 2006.

b

Includes Mexico, Middle East, Japan, and South Korea.

*Less than 0.05 billion short tons.

Sources: United States: Energy Information Administration, unpublished data from the Coal Reserves Database (April 2007). All

Other Countries: World Energy Council, 2004 Survey of Energy Resources, Eds. J. Trinnaman and A. Clarke (London, UK:

Elsevier, December 2004).

10Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can

be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions. 11Throughout this chapter, tons refer to short tons (2,000 pounds). 12Ratio based on reserves data supplied in Table 8 and data on world coal production for 2004.
China, the United States, and India will continue to be

met by domestic production. The projected increases in

coal production for the three countries dominate the

overall trends in the OECD and non-OECD regions,

accounting for 71 percent of the increase in production

for the entire OECD region and 79 percent of the increase

in the non-OECD region. Increased demand for international trade is expected to support production increases

in Australia/New Zealand, Russia, other non-OECD

Asia, Africa, and Central and South America (excluding

Brazil).

World Coal Consumption

OECD Countries

Coal consumption in the OECD countries rises at a relatively even pace in the reference case, from 46.6 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 50.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 59.3

quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 56). The increases represent average growth of 0.9 percent per year over the

entire period and a slightly higher rate of 1.1 percent per

year from 2015 to 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 51

Table 9. World Coal Production by Region, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Region 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004-2030

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 33.3 37.0 1.6%

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.8 24.6 25.8 26.7 30.4 33.9 1.5%

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.0%

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.3%

OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.6 -0.7%

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.7 1.7%

Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9%

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 12.6 1.7%

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.6 44.7 46.4 47.7 51.9 56.2 1.3%

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 10.0 11.5 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.7 1.2%

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 1.4%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.3 0.9%

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.2 70.6 82.4 94.7 105.4 116.7 2.9%

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.0 55.4 64.6 74.3 83.4 93.4 3.0%

India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 8.1 9.5 10.8 12.0 13.0 2.3%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 7.1 8.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 2.9%

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ****** -1.2%

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.9 1.6%

Central and South America . . . . . . 1.8 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 3.4%

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.4%

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.8 91.9 105.7 120.1 131.9 143.7 2.6%

Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.4 136.6 152.1 167.7 183.8 199.9 2.2%

*Less than 0.05 quadrillion Btu

Note: With the exception of North America, non-seaborne coal trade is not represented in the IEO2007 cases. As a result, the

projected levels of production assume that net non-seaborne coal trade will balance out across the world regions. Currently, a

significant amount of non-seaborne coal trade takes place in Eurasia, represented by exports of steam coal from Kazikhstan to

Russia and exports of coking coal from Russia to Ukraine.

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007) and National Energy Modeling System run

IEO2007.D032707B.
Much of the increase in coal consumption projected for

the OECD countries from 2004 to 2030 is the result of

expected strong growth in U.S. coal demand, under the

assumption that existing laws and policies remain in

effect indefinitely. Moderate increases in coal consumption are projected for most of the OECD countries,

including South Korea, Canada, Australia/New Zealand, and Mexico. In OECD Europe, natural gas is

expected to capture an increasing share of the region’s

total energy mix, primarily displacing coal and liquids

and, to a lesser extent, nuclear energy. Slow economic

growth in Japan is projected to result in sluggish growth

in overall energy demand, and as a result, the projection

for Japan’s coal consumption in 2030 is only slightly

lower than its 2004 total.

North America

In 2004, the United States consumed 22.6 quadrillion Btu

of energy from coal, accounting for 94 percent of total

coal consumption in North America and 48 percent of

the OECD total. U.S. coal consumption rises to 34.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030 in the reference case. The United

States has substantial coal reserves and has come to rely

heavily on coal for electricity generation, a trend that

continues in the projections. Coal’s share of total electricity generation in the United States (including electricity

produced at combined heat and power plants in the

industrial and commercial sectors) declines slightly,

from 50 percent in 2004 to 49 percent in 2015, then rises

to 57 percent in 2030.

Much of the projected growth in U.S. coal consumption

occurs after 2015. Between 2005 and 2015, natural gas

prices are projected to decline, remaining competitive

with coal prices for electricity generation. Although

some new natural-gas-fired capacity is projected to

come on line during the period, much of the growth in

electricity generation from natural gas is based on

increasing utilization of the nearly 200 gigawatts of new

natural-gas-fired capacity that came on line from 1999

through 2004. After 2015, rising natural gas prices gradually tilt economic decisions toward new coal-fired

power plants. From 2015 to 2030, 140 gigawatts of new

coal-fired capacity is projected to be built, representing

89 percent of the total coal builds projected for the years

2005 through 2030. These projections could change significantly if existing laws and policies, particularly those

related to greenhouse gas emissions, were to change.

Canada’s coal consumption is projected to increase from

1.2 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 1.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

In the short term, Canada’s coal consumption remains

near current levels, as the Ontario government moves

ahead with plans to shut down the Province’s 6.5

gigawatts of remaining coal-fired generating capacity by

2014 [7]. The government has indicated, however, that

the shutdown will not be completed until generation

from alternative sources can be secured. The decision to

close the plants is based primarily on the premise that

the adverse health and environmental impacts of the

plants’ operation are unacceptable. In western Canada,

where most of the country’s coal resources are located,

increasing demand for electricity is expected to result in

the need for additional coal-fired generating capacity.

In Mexico, relatively strong growth in overall energy

demand leads to an increase in total coal consumption of

0.5 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030. Mexico is projected to use more coal in 2030 both in the electric power

sector and in the industrial sector.

OECD Europe

Coal consumption in OECD Europe declines by 1.7

quadrillion Btu (13 percent) from 2004 to 2030 in the

IEO2007 reference case; however, the region is and will

continue to be a major market for coal. Coal consumption in OECD Europe, at 13.1 quadrillion Btu in 2004,

represented 28 percent of total OECD coal use. It is projected to drop to 11.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or 19 percent of total OECD coal use.

The major coal-consuming countries of the region, all

with consumption of 0.7 quadrillion Btu or more in 2004,

include Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, Spain,

Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Although OECD

Europe relies heavily on imports of hard coal,13 low-Btu

lignite represents an important domestically produced

source of energy. In 2004, lignite accounted for 47 percent of the region’s total coal consumption on a tonnage

basis and 23 percent on a Btu basis [8].

52 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

North

America

OECD

Europe

OECD

Asia

Total OECD

0

25

50

75

Quadrillion Btu

1980 2004 2015 2030

Figure 56. OECD Coal Consumption

by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 1980 and 2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

13Internationally, the term “hard coal” is used to describe anthracite and bituminous coal. In data published by the International Energy

Agency, coal of subbituminous rank is classified as hard coal for some countries and as brown coal (with lignite) for others.
Plans to replace or refurbish existing coal-fired capacity

in a number of the countries of OECD Europe are an

indication that coal will continue to play an important

role in the region’s overall energy mix. In addition to

some recent additions of coal-fired capacity (primarily

in Turkey), electricity producers in Germany, Spain,

France, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia

have revealed plans to upgrade or replace existing coalfired generating facilities over the next two decades.

Power producers in Germany plan to build nearly 11

gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity by 2012,

primarily to replace existing, less efficient, coal-fired

capacity [9]. A key incentive for the new coal builds in

Germany is a provision guaranteeing carbon dioxide

emission rights for the new capacity during the first 14

years of its operation.

Among the most important factors that keep coal consumption in OECD Europe from increasing in the projections is the region’s relatively slow growth in overall

energy consumption (0.4 percent per year). Contributing factors include continued penetration of natural

gas in both the electricity and industrial sectors, growing

use of renewable fuels in the region, and continuing

pressure on members of the European Union to reduce

subsidies that support domestic production of hard coal.

OECD Asia

In 2004, the countries of OECD Asia (Australia, New

Zealand, Japan, and South Korea) consumed 9.3 quadrillion Btu of coal, representing 20 percent of total OECD

coal consumption. In addition to being an important

coal-consuming region, OECD Asia also plays an important role in international coal trade. In 2004, Australia

was the world’s leading coal exporter, supplying 5.6

quadrillion Btu of coal to the international market, while

Japan and South Korea were the world’s leading importers, receiving 4.6 and 2.0 quadrillion Btu of coal, respectively, from other countries [10].

In the IEO2007 reference case, coal consumption in

OECD Asia increases by 1.7 quadrillion Btu, to 11.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030. With little change projected for

Japan’s coal consumption, South Korea and Australia/

New Zealand account for virtually all of the increase in

the region.

Coal consumption in Australia and New Zealand is projected to increase by an average of 1.2 percent per year,

from 2.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 3.3 quadrillion Btu in

2030. With substantial coal reserves, the Australia/New

Zealand region continues to rely heavily on coal for electricity generation; however, coal’s share of total generation in the region is projected to decline gradually, as

more natural gas is used for power generation. Coalfired power plants in the two countries supplied 73 percent of their total electricity generation in 2004. That

share declines gradually in the reference case, to 63 percent in 2030.

South Korea’s total annual coal consumption is projected to increase by 0.9 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to

2030, primarily to fuel electric power plants. Construction plans that have been announced by South Korea’s

generating companies indicate additional builds of 7.3

gigawatts of coal-fired capacity at existing sites over the

next few years, including two 500-megawatt units that

came on line at Korea East-West Power Company’s

Dangjin plant in 2005 and 2006 [11].

Non-OECD Countries

Led by strong economic growth and rising demand for

energy in China and India, non-OECD coal consumption is projected to rise to 139.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030,

more than double the quantity consumed in 2004

(Figure 57). The increase of 71.9 quadrillion Btu represents 85 percent of the projected increase in total world

coal consumption. Coal’s share of total energy consumption in the non-OECD region is projected to increase

from 33 percent in 2004 to 35 percent in 2030. Total coal

consumption in the non-OECD countries is projected to

grow at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent from 2004

to 2015 and at a slower rate of 2.2 percent per year from

2015 to 2030, as the region’s overall rate of economic

growth begins to slow in the later years of the projection

period.

Non-OECD Asia

China and India together account for 72 percent of the

projected increase in world coal consumption from 2004

to 2030. Strong economic growth (averaging 6.5 percent

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 53

Non-OECD

Europe

and Eurasia

Non-OECD

Asia

Other

Non-OECD

Total

Non-OECD

0

50

100

150

Quadrillion Btu

1980 2004 2015 2030

Figure 57. Non-OECD Coal Consumption

by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 1980 and 2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
per year in China and 5.7 percent per year in India from

2004 to 2030) is projected for both countries, and much of

the increase in their demand for energy, particularly in

the industrial and electricity sectors, is expected to be

met by coal.

Coal use in China’s electricity sector is projected to

increase from 22.7 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 55.9 quadrillion Btu in 2030, at an average rate of 3.5 percent per

year (Figure 58). In comparison, coal consumption in the

U.S. electricity sector is projected to grow by 1.7 percent

annually, from 20.3 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 31.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. At the end of 2004, China had an

estimated 271 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in operation. To meet the demand for electricity that is expected

to accompany its rapid economic growth, an additional

497 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements)

is projected to be brought on line in China by 2030,

requiring large financial investments in new coal-fired

power plants and associated transmission and distribution systems.

Nearly one-half (45 percent) of China’s coal use in 2004

was in the non-electricity sectors, primarily in the industrial sector. China was the world’s leading producer of

both steel and pig iron in 2004 [12]. Over the projection

period, coal demand in China’s non-electricity sectors is

expected to more than double, increasing by 20.9 quadrillion Btu. Despite such substantial growth, however,

the non-electricity share of total coal demand is projected to decline slightly, to 41 percent of total coal

demand in 2030. Coal remains the primary source of

energy in China’s industrial sector, primarily because

the country has only limited reserves of oil and natural

gas.

With a substantial portion of the increase in China’s

demand for both liquids and natural gas projected to be

met by imports, the Chinese government is actively promoting the development of a large coal-to-liquids industry. Initial production of coal-based synthetic liquids in

China is scheduled to commence in late 2007 with the

completion of the country’s first coal-to-liquids plant,

located in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region [13].

It is being built by the Shenhua Coal Liquefaction Corporation and will have an initial capacity of approximately 20,000 barrels per day, tentatively scheduled to

be increased to 100,000 barrels per day by 2010.

In another development, China’s Shenhua and Ningxia

Industry Groups are proceeding with feasibility studies

for the construction of two 80,000 barrel per day

coal-to-liquids plants to be sited in the Ningxia Autonomous Region and the Shaanxi Province. Although

China’s government and industry have proposed to

build as much as 1.0 million barrels of daily coal-toliquids capacity by 2020, considerable uncertainty and

risks are associated with the emergence of such a massive coal-to-liquids industry, including potential strains

on water resources and the general financial risks associated with the technological uncertainties and huge capital investments.

Nearly 70 percent of the growth in India’s coal consumption is expected to be in the electric power sector and

most of the remainder in the industrial sector. In 2004,

India’s coal-fired power plants consumed 5.6 quadrillion Btu of coal, representing 69 percent of the country’s

total coal demand. Coal use for electricity generation in

India is projected to grow by 2.4 percent per year, to 10.5

quadrillion Btu in 2030, as an additional 104 gigawatts of

coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is brought on

line. As a result, India’s coal-fired generating capacity

more than doubles in the IEO2007 projections, from 82

gigawatts in 2004 to 186 gigawatts in 2030.

Currently, India’s government indicates that 11 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity will be completed during its tenth power plan period (a 5-year

period ending in March 2007), and it is planning to complete more than 50 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity

during its eleventh plan period (ending in March 2012)

[14]. In addition, India’s government is also pursuing

the development of between five and seven large coalfired power projects that would have between 20 and 28

gigawatts of combined generating capability [15].

In other non-OECD Asia, coal consumption is projected

to grow by an average of 2.8 percent per year, from 4.3

quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 8.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030,

with increases in both the industrial and electric power

sectors. In the electric power sector, significant growth

in coal consumption is expected in Taiwan, Vietnam,

Indonesia, and Malaysia, where considerable amounts

54 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

23

16

3

41 39

23

3

65

56

37

3

95

Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total

0

20

40

60

80

100

Quadrillion Btu

2004 2015 2030

Figure 58. Coal Consumption in China by Sector,

2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2006).
of new coal-fired generating capacity are either planned

or under construction.

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Coal consumption in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is

projected to increase at an average rate of 1.0 percent per

year, from 9.0 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 11.7 quadrillion

Btu in 2030. The region has substantial coal reserves:

Russia alone has an estimated 173 billion tons of recoverable reserves (17 percent of the world total), and the

other countries in the region have an additional 100 billion tons (10 percent of the world total).

Russia is the largest coal consumer in the region, with

total consumption of 4.8 quadrillion Btu in 2004, corresponding to 54 percent of total coal consumption in

non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In 2030, Russia’s coal

use is projected to total 6.1 quadrillion Btu. Coal supplied 16 percent of Russia’s total energy requirements in

2004, and coal-fired power plants provided 20 percent of

its electricity. In the IEO2007 reference case, coal’s share

of Russia’s total energy consumption is projected to

drop slightly, to 15 percent in 2030, and its share of electricity generation is projected to decline to 16 percent in

2030. In most cases, natural gas is expected to be the

most economical option for new generating capacity in

Russia, although nuclear generation also is expected to

increase substantially though 2030. The natural gas

share of Russia’s total electricity generation is projected

to rise from 44 percent in 2004 to 48 percent in 2030.

Although Russia’s long-term energy strategy calls for

considerable new nuclear generating capacity, the government maintains that fossil-fuel-fired plants will continue in their role as the primary source for electric

power generation through 2020 [16]. For new fossil-fired

generating capacity, Russia’s energy strategy promotes

the construction of advanced coal-fired capacity in the

coal-rich Siberian region (central Russia) and recommends a focus on efficient natural-gas-fired capacity for

the western and far eastern areas of the country.

In other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, coal consumption is projected to increase from 4.2 quadrillion Btu in

2004 to 5.6 quadrillion Btu by 2030, growing by 1.1 percent per year on average. Plans for both new coal-fired

capacity and the refurbishment of existing capacity in a

number of countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, and

Ukraine, are a significant indication that coal will continue to be an important source of energy for the region

[17].

Africa

Africa’s coal consumption is projected to increase by 2.6

quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030. South Africa currently accounts for 94 percent of the coal consumed on

the continent and is expected to continue to account for

much of the increase in Africa’s total coal consumption

over the projection period in both the electricity and

industrial sectors.

In South Africa, increasing demand for electricity in

recent years has led to a decision by Eskom, the country’s state-owned electricity supplier, to restart three

large coal-fired plants (Camden, Grootvlei, and Komati)

that have been closed for more than a decade [18]. The

plants, with a combined generating capacity of 3.8

gigawatts, are scheduled to return to service in 2007.

Recent power shortages and the general lack of spare

generating capacity in southern Africa have led to

increased interest in new coal-fired power projects not

only in South Africa but also in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Botswana [19].

In the industrial sector, increasing use of coal in Africa is

expected for several purposes, including the production

of steam and process heat for industrial applications,

production of coke for the steel industry, and production of coal-based synthetic liquids. Currently, two commercial-sized coal-to-liquids plants in South Africa

(Sasol II and Sasol III) supply about 28 percent of the

country’s total liquid fuel requirements [20]. The two

plants together are capable of producing 150,000 barrels

of synthetic liquids per day.

Central and South America

The countries of Central and South America consumed

0.8 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2004. Brazil, with the

world’s eighth-largest steel industry in 2004, accounted

for 56 percent of the region’s coal demand. Chile,

Colombia, Puerto Rico, Peru, and Argentina accounted

for most of the remainder [21].

In the projections, coal consumption in Central and

South America increases by 0.9 quadrillion Btu from

2004 to 2030, with 72 percent of the increase in Brazil,

primarily for coke manufacture and electricity generation. Brazil’s steel companies currently plan to expand

production capacity by a substantial amount over the

next few years to meet increasing domestic and international demand for steel [22]. In addition, Brazil’s three

southernmost states, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina,

and Parana, which contain most of the country’s coal

reserves, are actively promoting the construction of several new coal-fired power plants [23]. The new projects

being promoted by the government of Rio Grande do

Sul represent a key component of its plan to become

more self-sufficient in electricity supply.

Middle East

Countries of the Middle East consumed 0.4 quadrillion

Btu of coal in 2004. Israel accounted for 86 percent of the

total and Iran most of the remainder. The region’s coal

consumption increases only slightly in the projections,

to 0.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 55
World Coal Trade

In addition to overall energy demand and the price of

coal, many factors have the potential to influence different countries’ ability and interest in exporting and

importing coal. They include mine productivity, inland

transportation infrastructure, and the port capacity of

both importing and exporting countries. Shifts in public

policy, as well as environmental concerns related to

either coal production or coal consumption, can affect

the amounts of coal traded. Uncertainty in the outlook

for international coal trade includes potential changes in

each of those factors.

Internationally traded coal made up 15 percent of total

world consumption in 2004. In the IEO2007 reference

case, world coal trade is projected to grow at an average

annual rate of 1.5 percent, from about 18.4 quadrillion

Btu in 2005 to 26.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Table 10).

Because the largest increases in coal consumption

through 2030 are projected for non-OECD Asia—particularly China, which is expected to satisfy most of the

increase in its coal demand from domestic mines rather

than imports—the share of coal trade as a percentage of

global coal consumption is projected to fall to 13 percent

in 2030. Australia and Indonesia are geographically well

situated to continue as the leading suppliers of internationally traded coal (particularly to Asia) over the

period.

Both steam and metallurgical coal are traded internationally, but most of the trade is in steam coal, which is

projected to continue to represent most (70 percent) of

the coal traded in 2030. In 2005, 55 percent of the world’s

exports of steam coal was imported by Asian countries,

and their share is projected to rise to 61 percent in 2030.

The share of metallurgical coal imports destined for

Asian countries is projected to increase from 61 percent

in 2005 to 68 percent in 2030.

Coal Exporters

Coal-exporting countries typically have large reserves of

high-quality coal and production capacity exceeding

their own domestic demand requirements. The top four

exporters of steam coal in 2005 were Australia, Indonesia, China, and South Africa. In the projections, Indonesia is expected to surpass Australia as the largest

exporter of steam coal in most years, and China is only

the sixth-largest exporter of steam coal in 2030. For coking coal, Australia, Canada, and the United States continue to be ranked among the top three exporters over

the projection period. Countries projected to expand

their contributions to international trade include Australia, Indonesia, and Russia. China and Vietnam are

projected to constrain their export expansion.

Already the world’s leading exporter of coal, Australia

is projected to dominate future international coal trade.

Australia continues to improve its inland transportation

and port infrastructure to expedite coal shipments to

international markets. It has plans to expand coal terminals at Abbot Point, Dalrymple Bay, Hay Point, RG

Tanna, Barney Point, and Fisherman Islands by about 55

million tons by 2010 and to expand rail transportation

capacity in Queensland, where most of Australia’s metallurgical coal is mined, to about 280 million tons (6.8

quadrillion Btu14) [24]. Australia also is projected to

remain the primary exporter of metallurgical coal to

Asian markets, supplying 73 percent of Asia’s demand

for coking coal.

In the international market for steam coal, Indonesia is

expected to play a growing role, surpassing Australia as

the largest exporter of steam coal in most years of the

IEO2007 projections. Indonesia has low-cost reserves of

low-sulfur coal; many ports, some with the capability to

take capesize ships; and proximity to the expanding

markets of Asia. Indonesia’s export trade grew by 125

percent (79 million tons or 1.6 quadrillion Btu) from 2000

to 2005 [25]. For 2006, Indonesia is expected to beat its

2005 export volume by 0.7 quadrillion Btu. From 2005 to

2030, its annual exports are projected to increase by 1.7

quadrillion Btu, depending on its investment in resource

exploration and the development of new mines over the

period. Other areas of uncertainty for Indonesian

exports include the potential for domestic coal demand

to compete with coal exports, the adequacy of its internal transportation infrastructure, and domestic environmental concerns.

In the period following the breakup of the Soviet Union

in 1991, exports of steam coal from Eurasia (the countries

of the former Soviet Union) fell from 11 million tons (0.2

quadrillion Btu) in 1991 to 3 million tons (0.08 quadrillion Btu) in 1998 [26]. Russia, the region’s largest

exporter, was largely dismissed as a growing coal

exporter because of its low mine productivity, relatively

poor coal quality, and long distances between mines and

markets. Since then, however, the productivity of its coal

mines has improved, lowering mining costs and compensating in part for the expense of transporting the coal

to ports.

Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, has increasingly sought Russia’s low-sulfur coal as its own mines

have closed. From 1998 to 2005, Eurasia’s annual coal

exports increased by 56 million tons (1.2 quadrillion Btu)

[27], and Russia is continuing to increase the capacity of

its coal ports. Current plans call for an additional

increase in export capacity from about 72 million tons

(1.6 quadrillion Btu) in 2005 to 97 million tons (2.1

56 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

14Throughout this section, British thermal units appearing in parentheses are estimates by Energy Information Administration, Office of

Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 57

Table 10. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2005, 2015, and 2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Exporters

Importers

Steam Coking Total

Europea Asia Americas Totalb Europea Asiac Americas Totalb Europea Asia Americas Totalb

2005

Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 2.57 0.15 2.81 0.79 2.26 0.22 3.27 0.86 4.83 0.37 6.07

United States. . . . . . . . 0.08 0.03 0.36 0.47 0.44 0.10 0.22 0.77 0.52 0.13 0.58 1.23

South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.54 0.10 0.03 1.70 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.56 0.10 0.03 1.73

Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.92 0.29 0.00 1.22 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.40 0.00 1.40

Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.37

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.24 0.38 0.11 0.72 0.24 0.41 0.12 0.76

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 1.62 0.01 1.70 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.07 1.76 0.01 1.84

South Americad . . . . . . 0.86 0.00 0.77 1.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.77 1.63

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.28

Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.42 2.06 0.08 2.57 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.46 0.42 2.52 0.08 3.03

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.30 6.98 1.41 12.75 1.61 3.44 0.56 5.60 5.91 10.41 1.97 18.35

2015

Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 3.33 0.00 3.33 0.64 3.20 0.27 4.10 0.64 6.53 0.27 7.43

United States. . . . . . . . 0.07 0.03 0.19 0.29 0.33 0.03 0.35 0.71 0.41 0.06 0.54 1.00

South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.69 0.31 0.13 2.13 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 1.71 0.31 0.15 2.17

Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.35 0.54 0.00 1.89 0.08 0.23 0.00 0.31 1.43 0.77 0.00 2.20

Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.18

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.54 0.13 0.96 0.29 0.54 0.13 0.96

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10

South Americad . . . . . . 1.42 0.00 1.25 2.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.00 1.25 2.66

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.16

Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.00 3.66 0.13 3.79 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.43 0.00 4.09 0.13 4.22

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.67 9.10 1.70 15.48 1.39 4.46 0.76 6.61 6.06 13.56 2.47 22.09

2030

Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 4.17 0.00 4.17 0.84 3.88 0.41 5.13 0.84 8.05 0.42 9.31

United States. . . . . . . . 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.26 0.04 0.46 0.76 0.26 0.05 0.62 0.93

South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.44 0.73 0.18 2.36 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 1.44 0.73 0.21 2.38

Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.25 0.66 0.00 1.90 0.16 0.27 0.00 0.43 1.41 0.93 0.00 2.33

Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.11

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.66 0.11 1.04 0.28 0.66 0.11 1.04

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10

South Americad . . . . . . 1.58 0.00 2.19 3.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.58 0.00 2.19 3.77

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.80

Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.00 3.90 0.35 4.26 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.43 0.00 4.33 0.35 4.68

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.33 11.35 2.93 18.61 1.55 5.31 1.00 7.86 5.88 16.65 3.93 26.47

aEurope/Mediterranean, including coal shipments to the Middle East and Africa.

bIn 2005, total world coal flows include a balancing item used to reconcile discrepancies between reported exports and imports. The 2005

balancing items by coal type were 1.062 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.003 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.065 quadrillion Btu (total). cIncludes 0.37 quadrillion Btu of coal for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces shipped to Japanese steelmakers in 2005.

dCoal exports from South America are projected to originate from mines in Colombia and Venezuela.

eIncludes shipments from other countries not modeled for the projection period. The 2005 exports from other countries by coal type were

0.08 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.03 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.11 quadrillion Btu (total).

Notes: Data exclude non-seaborne shipments of coal to Europe and Asia. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent

rounding.

Sources: 2005: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 2 (London, UK, August 2006); and Energy

Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2005, DOE/EIA-0121(2005/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2006).

2015 and 2030: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2007.D032707B.
quadrillion Btu) by 2008 [28]. In 2030, Eurasia’s coal

exports are projected to be 0.93 quadrillion Btu, or 67

percent, higher than the 2005 level.

In non-OECD Asia, China and Vietnam are examples of

countries that have the potential to export more coal but

are focused instead on meeting domestic coal demand.

Whereas China in the past had offered an export tax

rebate of 8 percent to encourage exports, it has now

imposed a 5-percent export tax on coking coal and may

apply an export tax on steam coal in the future [29].

China has also lowered its export cap to 46 million tons

(1.1 quadrillion Btu) for 2007 [30], equivalent to about

one-half of China’s steam coal exports in 2003. Australia,

Indonesia, and other suppliers are projected to compensate for the shortfalls in China’s coal exports, as occurred

in 2005 when China reduced its exports by 16 million

tons (0.4 quadrillion Btu) from their 2004 level [31].

Vietnam’s coal exports have risen quickly in recent

years, from 7 million tons (0.1 quadrillion Btu) in 2003 to

14 million tons (0.3 quadrillion Btu) in 2005, and are projected to increase to 19 million tons (0.4 quadrillion Btu)

in 2006. More recently, however, despite previous indications of plans to expand its export capacity, Vietnam

has moved to restrict exports. In 2006, the Vietnamese

government sanctioned a tariff of 10 percent on exported

coal, where previously there had been none; and in late

2006, the Prime Minister approved a plan to restrict coal

exports through 2010 in favor of preserving coal production for domestic uses [32]. In the IEO2007 reference

case, Vietnam’s coal exports are projected to decline to

0.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 but increase thereafter, to 0.8

quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Coal Imports

Asia

Asia poses a large area of uncertainty for world coal

trade projections. In particular, China has the potential

to influence the market either as an importer or an

exporter. If China’s imports increase significantly, it

may be difficult for some other countries to find adequate coal supplies at affordable prices. Likewise, if

China opts to export significantly less coal, other exporting countries may divert supplies to countries such as

Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, which are accustomed to

receiving coal from China. In IEO2007, in line with the

projection of continued strong growth in its coal consumption, China’s coal imports are projected to total 3.2

quadrillion Btu in 2030, while its exports are projected to

total 1.1 quadrillion Btu. Most of the coal consumed in

China is expected to come from its own coal mines.

In India, demand for coal imports in 2030 is projected to

be almost double the demand in 2005, as the country

continues to encounter problems with coal production

and transportation within its borders. Japan, lacking

coal resources of its own, is expected to remain the

world’s largest importer of coal in 2030. Historically,

Japan has relied on China for coal imports, but recently it

has initiated investments in coal production in other

countries (including Russia) in order to improve the

security of its coal supply [33]. South Korea also is projected to continue importing most of the coal it consumes. With planned increases in coal-fired capacity,

South Korea and Taiwan together are projected to maintain their share of world steam coal imports at about 21

percent in 2030.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa

Total coal imports to the Europe/Mediterranean market

(including the Middle East and Africa) will remain fairly

flat at their 2005 levels throughout the projection period

(Figure 59). For most European countries with increasing emphasis on natural gas in the power sector, coal

becomes a less significant component of the fuel mix for

electricity generation. In Turkey, however, economic

expansion and steel industry growth partially offset the

decline in Europe’s coal imports. The initial increase in

coal trade to Europe in the projections also is the result of

the phaseout of European mining subsidies and higher

demand for lower sulfur coal. The demand for lower sulfur coal causes an increase in the projected share of

Europe’s coal imports that originates from South America and Eurasia.

The Americas

The United States is projected to import 2.1 quadrillion

Btu of coal in 2030, 1.3 quadrillion Btu more than in 2005.

58 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1995 2005 2010 2020 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

Europe/Mediterranean

Asia

Total

Americas

Figure 59. Coal Imports by Major Importing

Region, 1995-2030

Sources: History: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd.,

SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK,

November 2006); International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2006 (Paris, France, August 2006), and previous issues;

and Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal

Report, October-December 2005, DOE/EIA-0121(2005/4Q)

(Washington, DC, March 2006), and previous issues; Btu conversions from short tons are estimates by EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, National

Energy Modeling System run IEO2007.D032707B.
Although still a small share of U.S. consumption, at 6.1

percent, that would represent a shift for the United

States from being a net exporter to being a net importer.

With declining productivity and mining difficulties in

Central Appalachia, and with rising demand for coal in

the Southeast, imports are expected to become increasingly competitive with domestic U.S. coal production.

Already, plans are being made to expand U.S. ports to

accommodate coal imports. For example, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP is adding 9 million tons

(roughly 0.2 quadrillion Btu) of coal import capacity at

its Virginia port facilities in early 2008 [34].

South America is expected to be an important source of

coal imports to the United States and the third-largest

exporter of coal worldwide in 2030. In recent years, Canada has been the largest importer of U.S. coal. Although

Ontario’s revised plan to close its four remaining coalfired generation plants by 2014 could be delayed,

exports of U.S. steam coal to Canada in 2030 are projected to be about 10 million tons (0.2 quadrillion Btu)

below their 2005 level [35].

Brazil is planning a 39-percent increase in steelmaking

capacity by 2010 [36]. With rich reserves of iron ore but

no coking-grade coal, Brazil’s steel industry will require

an increase in imports of coking coal from Australia,

South Africa, Canada, and the United States. Its total

imports of coking coal are projected to grow from about

0.3 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 0.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Much of the steam coal imported by the countries of

Central and South America is expected to come from

producers in South Africa and also from Colombia.

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31. SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal

Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, November 2006).

32. “Gov’t Raises Tariffs on Coal, Mineral Exports,”

Viet Nam News (December 12, 2006), web site

http://vietnamnews.vnanet.vn.

33. Kommersant, “Evraz Group Invites Japanese to

Yakutia” (September 22, 2005), web site www.

kommersant.com.

34. “From Export to Import,” The Virginian-Pilot (February 1, 2007), p. 1.

35. Energy Information Administration, National

Energy Modeling system, run IEO2007.D032707B.

36. D. Kinch, “Brazilian Crude Steel Output To Pass

50m tpy,” Metal Bulletin News Alter Service (August

30, 2006).
Chapter 6

Electricity

World electricity generation nearly doubles in the IEO2007 reference case from 2004 to 2030.

In 2030, generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to exceed

generation in the OECD countries by 30 percent.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world demand for electricity advances strongly from 2004 to 2030. Global electricity generation increases by 2.4 percent per year over

the projection period, from 16,424 billion kilowatthours

in 2004 to 30,364 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure

60). Much of the growth in electric power demand is projected for nations outside the OECD. Although the

non-OECD nations consumed 26 percent less electricity

than the OECD nations in 2004, total electricity generation in the non-OECD region in 2030 is projected to

exceed generation in the OECD by 30 percent (Figure

61).

Total electricity demand in the non-OECD nations is

expected to grow from 2004 to 2030 at an annual rate that

is nearly triple the rate of growth for electricity demand

in the OECD. The difference reflects the relative maturity of electricity infrastructure in the more developed

OECD region, as well as the expectation that populations in the OECD countries generally will grow slowly

or decline over the next 25 years. In addition, fast-paced

growth in the developing non-OECD economies translates to rising standards of living and robust growth in

consumer demand for lighting and appliances. Total

electricity generation in the non-OECD region increases

by an average of 3.5 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, as compared with a projected annual

growth rate for OECD electricity generation that averages 1.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030.

Among the energy end-use sectors, the most rapid

growth in total world demand for electricity is projected

for the buildings (residential and commercial) sectors.

Worldwide, total electric power consumption on a Btu

basis in the buildings sectors increases by an average of

2.6 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, as

compared with an average growth rate of 2.2 percent per

year for total electricity consumption in the industrial

and transportation sectors combined. The most rapid

rate of increase in electricity demand is projected for the

commercial sector, both worldwide and by region,

reflecting the expected growth of service activities as

strong economic growth, particularly among the

non-OECD countries, increases the demand for office

space, hospitals, hotels, and other institutions or organizations (Figure 62).

Electricity Supply by Energy Source

The mix of primary fuels used to generate electricity has

changed a great deal over the past two decades on a

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 61

16,424

19,554

22,289

24,959

27,537

30,364

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Billion Kilowatthours

History Projections

Figure 60. World Electric Power Generation,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Billion Kilowatthours

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 61. World Electric Power Generation

by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
worldwide basis. Coal has continued to be the fuel most

widely used for electricity generation, although generation from nuclear power increased rapidly from the

1970s through the mid-1980s, and natural-gas-fired generation grew rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s. The use of

oil for electricity generation has been declining since the

mid-1970s, when the oil embargo by Arab producers in

1973-1974 and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 produced

oil price shocks.

More recently, high world oil prices—which have been

trending upward since 2003—have further eroded the

role of petroleum in the power sector. Higher world oil

prices have encouraged a shift from oil-fired generation

to natural gas and nuclear power and have reinforced

coal’s important role as an energy source for electricity

generation. Today, relatively high world oil prices in

combination with concerns about the environmental

consequences of greenhouse gas emissions are raising

renewed interest in nuclear power and renewable

energy sources as alternatives to the use of coal and natural gas for electric power generation. Projections of

future coal use are particularly sensitive to assumptions

about future policies that might be adopted to mitigate

greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal

In the IEO2007 reference case, while natural gas is the

fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation

worldwide, coal continues to provide the largest share

of the energy used for electric power production (Figure

63). In 2004, coal-fired generation accounted for 41 percent of world electricity supply; in 2030, its share is projected to be 45 percent. Sustained high prices for oil and

natural gas make coal-fired generation more attractive

economically, particularly in nations that are rich in coal

resources, which include China, India, and the United

States. The 2.8-percent projected annual growth rate for

coal-fired electricity generation worldwide is exceeded

only by the 3.3-percent rate projected for natural-gasfired generation.

Natural Gas

Although natural gas is the fastest-growing energy

source for electric power generation in the IEO2007 reference case projection—increasing from 3,231 billion

kilowatthours in 2004 to 7,423 billion kilowatthours in

2030—the total amount of electricity generated from natural gas continues to be only about one-half the total for

coal, even in 2030. Natural-gas-fired combined-cycle

capacity is an attractive choice for new power plants

because of its fuel efficiency, operating flexibility (it can

be brought on line in minutes rather than the hours it

takes for coal-fired and other generating capacity), relatively short construction times (months instead of the

years that coal-fired and nuclear power plants typically

require), and investment costs that are lower than those

for other technologies. Natural gas also burns more

cleanly than coal or petroleum products, and as more

governments begin implementing national or regional

plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions they may

encourage the use of natural gas to displace oil and coal.

Oil

With world oil prices projected to reach $59 per barrel

(in real 2005 dollars) at the end of the IEO2007 projection

in 2030, the expected rate of increase in oil use for electricity generation is the slowest among all energy

sources. Worldwide, oil-fired generation is projected to

increase by an average of 0.9 percent per year from 2004

62 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 Percent per Year

World OECD Non-OECD

Figure 62. Average Annual Change in End-Use

Sector Electricity Demand, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Oil Nuclear RenewablesNatural

Gas

Coal

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

Billion Kilowatthours

2004 2030

Figure 63. World Electricity Generation by Fuel,

2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
to 2030; and in the OECD nations, it is projected to

decline by 0.3 percent per year. Only the non-OECD

Middle East region, with its ample oil reserves and a current one-third share of total electricity generation fueled

by oil, is projected to continue relying heavily on oil to

meet its electricity needs.

Nuclear Power

The prospects for nuclear power have improved in

recent years. Higher capacity utilization rates have been

reported for many existing nuclear facilities, and most of

the existing plants in OECD countries and the countries

of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (including Russia) are

expected to be granted extensions to their operating

lives. In the IEO2007 reference case, electricity generation from nuclear power plants worldwide is projected

to increase at an average rate of 1.3 percent per year,

from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 3,619 billion

kilowatthours in 2030.

In past editions of the IEO, it was anticipated that

nuclear generation would decline in the later years of the

projections, as aging nuclear reactors (especially among

the OECD nations) were expected to be taken out of

operation and not to be replaced. The role of nuclear

power in meeting future electricity demand has been

reconsidered more recently, given concerns about rising

fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas

emissions. On the other hand, issues related to plant

safety, radioactive waste disposal, and the proliferation

of nuclear weapons, which continue to raise public concerns in many countries, may hinder the development of

new nuclear power reactors.

The projection for total electricity generation from the

world’s nuclear power plants in 2030 in the IEO2007 reference case is 14 percent higher than the corresponding

projection in IEO2006. On a regional basis, only OECD

Europe—where some national governments, including

those of Germany and Belgium, still have plans in place

to phase out nuclear programs entirely—is projected to

see a decline in nuclear power generation after 2010.

Non-OECD Asia, in contrast, is poised for a robust

expansion of nuclear generation. For example, in China,

electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to

grow at an average annual rate of 7.7 percent from 2004

to 2030, and in India it is projected to increase by an average of 9.1 percent per year.

Hydroelectricity and Other Renewables

In the IEO2007 reference case, electricity generation

from hydroelectric and other renewable energy

resources is projected to increase at an average annual

rate of 1.7 percent from 2004 to 2030. High oil and natural gas prices, which are expected to persist in the

mid-term, encourage the use of renewables. Like nuclear

power, renewable energy sources are attractive for environmental reasons. Further, government policies and

incentives to increase the use of renewable energy

sources for electricity generation encourage the development of renewable energy even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the

renewable share of world electricity generation falls

slightly in the projection, from 19 percent in 2004 to 16

percent in 2030, as growth in the consumption of both

coal and natural gas in the electricity generation sector

worldwide exceeds the growth in renewable energy

consumption. The capital costs of new power plants

using renewable fuels remain relatively high in comparison with those for plants fired with coal or natural gas.

The IEO2007 projections for hydroelectricity and other

renewable energy resources include only on-grid

renewables. Non-marketed (noncommercial) biofuels

from plant and animal sources are an important source

of energy, particularly in non-OECD economies, and the

International Energy Agency has estimated that some

2.5 billion people in developing countries depend on traditional biomass as their main fuel for cooking [1].

Non-marketed fuels and dispersed renewables (renewable energy consumed on the site of production, such as

energy from solar panels used to heat water) are not

included in the projections, however, because comprehensive data on their use are not available.

In combination, electricity generation from nuclear

power and from renewable energy sources is projected

to increase by 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The

development of non-fossil energy sources in electricity

markets may be especially attractive to countries that are

attempting to diversify away from fossil fuels, both to

address energy security issues and to reduce carbon

dioxide emissions.

Regional Electricity Markets

In the IEO2007 reference case, the highest projected

growth rates for electricity generation are for nations in

the non-OECD region (Figure 64). Robust population

growth and rising personal incomes in the non-OECD

nations drive the projected growth in demand for electric power. In the OECD countries, where electric power

infrastructures are relatively mature, national populations generally are expected to grow slowly or decline,

and GDP growth is expected to be slower than in the

developing nations, increases in demand for electricity

are projected to be much slower than those in the

non-OECD countries. For example, electricity demand

in OECD North America is projected to grow by an

annual average of 1.5 percent from 2004 to 2030, which is

less than one-half the projected rates of increase in China

and in India.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 63
OECD Economies

North America

In 2004, electricity generation in North America totaled

4,619 billion kilowatthours and accounted for 28 percent

of the world’s total generation. That share is projected to

decline over the course of the projection period, as the

non-OECD nations experience fast-paced growth in

electric power demand. Still, North America is projected

to account for 23 percent of the world’s electric power

generation in 2030.

The United States is the largest consumer of electricity in

North America and is projected to remain in that position through 2030 (Figure 65). U.S. electricity generation—including both generation by electric power

producers and on-site generation—is projected to

increase steadily, at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Canada, like the United States, has a mature electricity market, and its generation is projected to increase

by 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Mexico’s electricity generation grows at a faster rate—averaging 3.3

percent per year through 2030—reflecting the relatively

undeveloped state of the country’s electric power

infrastructure.

There are large differences in the mix of energy sources

used to generate electricity in the three countries that

make up OECD North America, and those differences

are likely to become more pronounced in the future

(Figure 66). In the United States, coal is the leading

source of energy for power generation, accounting for 52

percent of the 2004 total; but in Canada, renewable

energy sources (predominantly hydroelectricity) provided 60 percent of the nation’s electricity generation in

2004. Most of Mexico’s electricity generation currently is

fueled by petroleum-based liquids and natural gas,

which together accounted for 66 percent of its total electricity generation in 2004. In the reference case projections for 2030, U.S. reliance on coal is even greater than it

was in 2004; Canada’s hydropower resources (along

with some generation from wind capacity scheduled to

be built) continue to provide nearly 60 percent of its electricity; and the natural gas share of Mexico’s total electricity generation increases to 54 percent (from 35

percent in 2004).

64 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1.5

0.8

1.4

2.3

4.4

3.9

3.8

2.9

3.5

2.9

OECD

North America

Europe

Asia

Non-OECD

Europe/Eurasia

China

India

Other Asia

Middle East

Africa

Central/South America

Average Annual Percent Change

Figure 64. Annual Growth in Electricity Generation

by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Billion Kilowatthours

United States

Canada

Mexico

Figure 65. Net Electricity Generation in OECD

North America, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of Total

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

United States Canada Mexico

Figure 66. Net Electricity Generation in OECD

North America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
In the United States, electricity generation from naturalgas-fired power plants is projected to increase through

2020, as recently constructed plants are utilized more

fully to meet growing demand. After 2020, generation

from new coal-fired and nuclear power plants is

expected to meet most of the growth in electricity

demand. Total generation from nuclear power plants is

projected to increase, from 789 billion kilowatthours in

2004 to 896 billion kilowatthours in 2030, as the result of

expected capacity increases that include 12,500 megawatts at newly built plants and 3,000 megawatts from

uprates of existing plants (offset by 2,600 megawatts of

retirements). Generation from renewable energy

sources also is projected to expand, from 370 billion

kilowatthours in 2004 to 522 billion kilowatthours in

2030, stimulated by technology improvements, higher

fossil fuel prices, and the expansion and extension of the

Federal production tax credit for renewable generation

through December 31, 2007, enacted in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.15

In Canada, generation from natural gas and from coal is

projected to increase, and oil-fired generation is projected to decline. The Province of Ontario had

announced plans to close all its coal-fired plants by the

end of 2007, but that date has since been pushed back to

2011. Further, in late 2006, the Ontario Power Authority

recommended that the government consider maintaining 3,000 megawatts of coal-fired capacity until at least

2014 to ensure that no power shortages would occur as a

result of possible delays in the addition of new generating capacity [2]. In the IEO2007 reference case, Canada’s

coal use for electricity generation continues to increase

throughout the projection period, by an average of 1.7

percent per year; natural-gas-fired generation increases

by 2.8 percent per year; generation from nuclear power

increases by 1.5 percent per year; and renewable generation increases by 1.3 percent per year.

Several large- and small-scale hydroelectric facilities

currently are either planned or under construction in

Canada. Hydro-Québec has announced plans to construct a 768-megawatt powerhouse near Eastman and a

smaller 120-megawatt facility at Sarcelle in Québec, both

of which are expected to be fully commissioned by 2011

[3]. Other planned hydroelectric projects include a

1,550-megawatt plant at La Romaine in Québec, a 2,000-

megawatt project at the Lower Churchill River/Gull

Island site in Newfoundland and Labrador, and a

1,500-megawatt project (the Conawapa Generating

Station) on the Lower Nelson River in Manitoba [4]. The

IEO2007 reference case does not anticipate that all

the planned projects will be constructed, but given Canada’s historical experience with hydropower and the

commitments for construction, new hydroelectric

capacity accounts for more than one-half of the 16,000

megawatts of additional renewable capacity projected to

be added in Canada between 2004 and 2030.

While hydropower plays a major role in Canada’s

renewable electricity generation, the country also has

plans to expand wind-powered generating capacity in

the future. In 2006, the country’s installed wind capacity

was doubled, to 1,460 megawatts, giving Canada the

world’s twelfth-largest national installed wind capacity

[5]. In the Canadian government’s 2005 budget, its Wind

Power Production Incentive (WPPI) was expanded to

support the development of 4,000 megawatts of wind

power by 2010, with qualifying wind producers eligible

to receive an incentive of $0.01 per kilowatthour (Canadian dollars) for the first 10 years of production from

new installations [6]. In addition, several Provincial governments have instituted their own incentives to support the construction of new wind capacity. The

incentives (along with sustained higher world oil and

natural gas prices) are expected to support the projected

increase in Canada’s use of wind power for electricity

generation.

OECD Europe

Electricity generation in the nations of OECD Europe is

projected to grow slowly, as a result of their slow population growth and their already well-established electricity markets. The region’s total generation increases

by an average of 0.8 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, from 3,250 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to

3,564 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 4,044 billion

kilowatthours in 2030. Natural gas is expected to be by

far the fastest-growing fuel for electricity generation in

OECD Europe, increasing at an average rate of 3.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, while high world oil

prices and environmental concerns lead to decreases in

the use of petroleum and coal (Figure 67).

Renewable electricity generation in OECD Europe is

also projected to increase over the period from 2004 to

2030. The use of renewables (primarily nonhydropower)

for electricity generation is projected to grow by 1.4 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2030. Although

most of the economically feasible hydroelectric

resources in Europe already have been developed, the

countries of OECD Europe have installed substantial

amounts of alternative renewable energy capacity—

consisting mainly of wind turbines—over the past several years. At present, 7 of the world’s 10 largest markets

for wind-powered electricity generation are in Europe,16

and the 27-member European Union accounted for 65

percent of the world’s total installed wind capacity as of

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 65

15The U.S. projections, which are consistent with those in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case, assume that the production

tax credit will expire at the end of 2007. 16According to the Global Wind Energy Council, the 10 countries with the largest installed wind capacity are Germany, Spain, the

United States, India, Denmark, China, Italy, United Kingdom, Portugal, and France.
the end of 2006 [7]. With many European countries setting new goals to increase nonhydropower renewable

electricity generation, the role of wind power in meeting

OECD Europe’s electricity demand is likely to grow in

the future.

Several countries in OECD Europe have policies in effect

to reduce their use of nuclear power in the future. As a

result, nuclear electricity generation in the region is projected to decline through 2025. After 2025, however,

modest growth is projected for the region’s nuclear

power capacity, and its total nuclear electricity generation begins to rise at the end of the projection. In the

IEO2007 reference case, nuclear capacity in OECD

Europe is projected to fall from 134 gigawatts in 2004 to

114 gigawatts in 2030 (as compared with the larger

decline projected in the IEO2006 reference case, to 95

gigawatts in 2030). Many nations in the region are reassessing the potential role of nuclear power in meeting

demand for electricity, particularly because it is an

energy source that does not produce carbon dioxide

emissions. As a result, the IEO2007 reference case projection anticipates that more nuclear power plant operating

lives will be extended and fewer plants will be retired in

the mid-term, and that there will be some new builds of

nuclear capacity in France, Finland, and possibly other

countries in OECD Europe.

OECD Asia

Total electricity generation in OECD Asia is projected to

increase by 1.4 percent per year on average, from 1,586

billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,259 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Japan accounts for the largest share of

electricity generation in the region today and continues

to do so in the mid-term projection, despite its having

the slowest-growing electricity market in the region

(Figure 68). Japan’s electricity generation increases at a

1.0-percent average annual rate in the IEO2007 reference

case, as compared with projected rates of 1.4 percent per

year in Australia/New Zealand and 2.3 percent per year

in South Korea. Japan’s electricity markets can be characterized as mature, and its aging population and relatively slow projected economic growth in the mid-term

translate to slow growth in demand for electric power.

In contrast, both Australia/New Zealand and South

Korea are projected to have more robust income and

population growth in the mid-term, leading to more

rapid growth in demand for electricity.

The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely

among the three economies that make up the OECD

Asia region (Figure 69). In Japan, natural gas, coal, and

nuclear power make up the bulk of the current electric

power mix, with natural gas and nuclear accounting for

about 56 percent of total generation and coal another 25

percent. The remaining portion is split between

renewables and petroleum-based liquids. In 2030, Japan

is projected to rely on natural gas, nuclear power, and

coal for about 83 percent of its electric power supply,

with coal’s share declining to 19 percent as both natural

gas and nuclear power displace its use.

Australia and New Zealand, with their rich coal

resources, rely on coal for nearly three-fourths of their

combined electricity generation. Another 18 percent

comes from renewable energy sources—primarily,

hydropower. The Australia/New Zealand region uses

negligible amounts of oil for electricity generation and

no nuclear power, and that is not expected to change

over the projection period. Natural-gas-fired generation

66 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Billion Kilowatthours

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 67. Net Electricity Generation in OECD

Europe by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Billion Kilowatthours

Japan

Australia/New Zealand

South Korea

Figure 68. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia,

2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
is expected to grow strongly in the region, reducing

coal’s share in 2030.

In South Korea, coal and nuclear power currently provide 44 percent and 36 percent of total electricity generation, respectively. Strong expansion is projected for

South Korea’s nuclear power program: in 2030, nuclear

electricity generation is projected to be nearly equal to

coal-fired generation, with both providing about 41 percent of the country’s total electricity.

Non-OECD Economies

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Total electricity generation in non-OECD Europe and

Eurasia is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.3 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, from 1,497

billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,036 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 2,731 billion kilowatthours in 2030.

Russia, the region’s largest economy, accounted for 59

percent of its total generation in 2004 and is projected to

account for 55 percent of the regional total in 2030

(Figure 70).

The non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region as a whole

possesses ample natural gas resources. As a result, it is

expected that much of its electricity supply will continue

to be provided from natural-gas-fired power plants.

Natural gas is the region’s fastest-growing source of

electric power in the IEO2007 reference case, increasing

by 3.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Coal-fired and

nuclear power plants also are important regional

sources of electricity generation, with projected annual

increases averaging 2.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, over the same period. Renewable generation,

largely from hydroelectric facilities, is projected to

increase more slowly, at an average rate of 0.7 percent

per year, largely as a result of repairs and expansions at

existing hydroelectric projects rather than new hydropower or nonhydropower renewable generating facilities. Liquids play only a minor role in the electric power

markets of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, and their

role is not expected to expand in the future.

Russia has announced plans to increase its nuclear

power capacity over the mid-term, in order to lessen the

reliance of its power sector on natural gas and preserve

what is becoming one of its most valuable export commodities. As a result, electricity production from Russia’s nuclear power plants is projected to grow by 3.2

percent per year on average in the reference case, while

natural-gas-fired generation increases at the slower rate

of 2.5 percent per year.

Only 3 gigawatts of new nuclear generating capacity has

become operational in Russia since 1991. In 2006, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov approved an ambitious plan to complete the construction of 10 new

1,000-megawatt reactors and begin construction on

another 10 reactors by 2015 [8]. There is some question,

however, as to whether the plan can be achieved within

the announced time frame. One problem is that tariffs on

nuclear power currently are much lower than those on

thermal generation, and in the past the Russian nuclear

power industry has not had sufficient funds to complete

the construction on new reactors on schedule. The Russian government has acknowledged that raising nuclear

tariffs to parity with the tariffs on thermal generation

will be necessary to attract the private-sector capital

investment needed for its nuclear power expansion plan

to succeed, and the plan includes assumptions that both

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 67

2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of Total

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Japan Australia/

New Zealand

South Korea

Figure 69. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia

by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Billion Kilowatthours

Russia

Other

Figure 70. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
capital costs and operating costs will be reduced. Nevertheless, the IEO2007 reference case projects some delay

in meeting the current construction schedule. In the outlook, a net 5 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is added to

Russia’s existing 22 gigawatts by 2015. Thereafter, it is

likely that another 15 gigawatts of nuclear capacity will

be added by 2030.

Non-OECD Asia

Non-OECD Asia—led by China and India—is projected

to be the region with the fastest growth in electric power

generation worldwide, averaging 4.2 percent per year

from 2004 to 2030. The nations of non-OECD Asia are

expected to see continued robust economic growth, with

corresponding increases in demand for electricity to

power lighting, heating and cooling, household appliances, and other electronic devices associated with rising standards of living. Total electricity generation in the

non-OECD Asia region nearly triples over the projection

period, from 3,517 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 10,185

billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 71).

China and India account for the world’s largest projected increases in national electric power demand over

the 2004 to 2030 period. China already is the world’s

largest coal consumer, and India is the third largest

(after the United States). In 2004, the combined coal use

of China and India was equal to that of the entire OECD

region, and in 2030 it is projected to exceed the OECD

total by more than 85 percent. A sizable portion of the

coal consumed in China and India is expected to be used

for power generation. In China, the coal share of generation is projected to reach 84 percent in 2030, despite

higher annual growth rates for natural-gas-fired and

nuclear power generation (Figure 72). In India, coal’s

share is projected to decline to 69 percent of the country’s total power generation in 2030.

In both China and India, consumption of petroleum liquids for electricity generation is projected to remain

modest, as relatively high world oil prices make other

fuels economically more attractive. Some increases in oil

use for electricity generation are projected for other

countries in the region, because many rural areas that

currently do not have access to transmission lines are

expected to replace noncommercial energy sources with

electricity from diesel-fired generators until transmission infrastructure can be put into place. Nevertheless,

the liquids share of electricity generation in non-OECD

Asia is projected to fall from 4 percent in 2004 to 2 percent in 2030.

Non-OECD Asia is expected to lead the world in the

installation of new nuclear capacity over the projection

period, accounting for 51 percent of the projected net

increment in nuclear capacity worldwide. China is projected to add 36 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030,

India 17 gigawatts, and the other countries of nonOECD Asia a combined 6 gigawatts. Strong growth in

nuclear capacity in China and India will help both countries improve fuel diversification in their power sectors,

although thermal generation will continue to dominate

in both countries. In China, the nuclear share of total

electricity generation is projected to rise from 2 percent

in 2004 to 5 percent in 2030, and in India it is projected to

rise from 2 percent to 8 percent.

Although electricity generation from renewable energy

sources is projected to grow at an average annual rate of

2.0 percent, the renewable share of total generation

declines as the shares if fossil fuels and nuclear power

68 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

Billion Kilowatthours

China

India

Other

Figure 71. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD

Asia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of Total

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

China India Other

Figure 72. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD

Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
grow more strongly in the region. The renewable share

of non-OECD Asian generation falls from 16 percent in

2004 to 9 percent in 2030. Much of the growth in

non-OECD Asia’s renewable energy consumption is

projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric

facilities. Several countries in the region have hydropower facilities either planned or under construction. In

India, for instance, about 12,020 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity is under construction, and letters of

award have been issued for the 1,000-megawatt Tehri

Pass project (scheduled for completion by 2012) and the

1,200-megawatt Kotlibhel-IA project [9]. China also has

a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects under

construction, including the 18,200-megawatt Three

Gorges Dam project (expected to be fully operational by

2009) and the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the

Jisha River (scheduled for completion in 2020, as part of

a 14-facility hydropower development plan) [10].

Middle East

Electric power generation in the Middle East region is

projected to grow by 2.9 percent per year, from 567 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 1,185 billion kilowatthours

in 2030 (Figure 73). Most of the countries in the Middle

East region have well-established electricity infrastructures, with electrification rates above 90 percent [11].

(Yemen, the region’s poorest economy, is the exception,

with only an estimated 50 percent of the population having access to electric power in 2002.) Nevertheless, population and income growth in the region are expected to

result in growing demand for electric power in the

future.

Natural gas is the largest source of energy for electricity

generation in the Middle East, and it is expected to

continue in that role. In 2004, natural-gas-fired generation accounted for 58 percent of the region’s total power

supply. In 2030, the natural gas share is projected to be

61 percent, as the petroleum share of generation

decreases slightly over the projection period. Petroleum

is a valuable export commodity for many nations of the

Middle East, and there is increasing interest in the use of

domestic natural gas for electricity generation in order

to make more oil assets available for export.

The Middle East is the only region in the world where

petroleum liquids are expected to continue accounting

for a sizable portion of the fuel mix for electricity generation throughout the projection period. The Middle East

region as a whole relied on oil-fired capacity to meet 34

percent of its total generation needs in 2004, and that

share is projected to fall only slightly, to 32 percent, in

2030. The rich petroleum resources in the Middle East

are expected to allow nations of the region to continue

using oil for electricity generation, even as high world

oil prices result in the displacement of oil in other

regions. Oil-fired generation in the Middle East is projected to increase by an average of 2.6 percent per year

from 2004 to 2030.

Other energy sources make only minor contributions to

the Middle East region’s electricity supply. Israel is the

only country in the region that uses significant amounts

of coal to generate electric power [12], and Iran is the

only one projected to add nuclear capacity, with completion of its Bushehr 1 reactor expected by 2010. Finally,

because there is little incentive for countries in the Middle East to increase their use of renewable energy

sources, renewables are projected to account for a modest 2 percent of the region’s total electricity generation

throughout the projection period.

Africa

In Africa, demand for electricity is projected to grow at

an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in the IEO2007 reference case. Thermal generation accounted for most of

the region’s total electricity supply in 2004 and is

expected to be in the same position through 2030.

Coal-fired power plants, which were the region’s largest

source of electricity in 2004, accounting for 45 percent of

total generation, are projected to provide a 46-percent

share in 2030, as natural-gas-fired generation expands

strongly from 25 percent of the total in 2004 to 38 percent

in 2030 (Figure 74).

At present, South Africa’s two nuclear reactors are the

only ones operating in the region, accounting for about 3

percent of Africa’s total electricity generation. In the

IEO2007 reference case, 1,000 megawatts of new nuclear

capacity (net) is projected to become operational in

Africa over the 2004 to 2030 period; however, the nuclear

share of total generation is expected to fall to 2 percent in

2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 69

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

Billion Kilowatthours

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Figure 73. Net Electricity Generation in the

Middle East by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Hydroelectricity and other marketed renewable energy

sources are expected to grow slowly in Africa. As they

have in the past, non-marketed renewables can be

expected to continue providing energy to Africa’s rural

areas; however, it is often difficult for African nations to

find funding or international support for larger commercial projects. Still, plans for several hydroelectric

projects in the region have been advanced recently, and

they may help boost supplies of marketed renewable

energy in the mid-term. Several (although not all) of the

announced projects are expected to be completed in the

mid-term outlook, allowing the region’s consumption of

marketed renewable energy to grow by 0.7 percent per

year from 2004 to 2030.

In 2006, the Export-Import Bank of China signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of

Mozambique to provide a $2.3 billion loan package that

would include construction of the 1,300-megawatt

Mphanda Nkuwa hydroelectric dam on the Zambezi

River [13]. In addition, there are plans to expand the

existing hydroelectric facility at Cahora Bassa and to

construct a new North Bank Cahora Bassa dam. The

African Development Fund has estimated that the additions could increase Mozambique’s installed generating

capacity by 2,000 megawatts and raise its national electrification rate from 6 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in

2020 [14]. In Angola, there are plans to refurbish existing

hydropower facilities at Capanda and Cambambe and

increase their capacity to 520 megawatts and 700 megawatts, respectively in the near term [15]. Nigeria has

plans to expand its renewable generating capacity by

3,500 megawatts in the mid-term, mostly in the form of

small hydroelectric projects, in an attempt to diversify

the country’s energy mix away from oil and natural gas

[16].

Central and South America

Electricity generation in Central and South America is

projected to increase steadily in the IEO2007 reference

case, from 882 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 1,838

billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 75). Brazil, the

region’s largest economy, is expected to remain its largest electricity producer as well, accounting for 54 percent

of total projected electricity generation in the Central

and South America region in 2030.

Throughout Central and South America, significant

shares of national electric power supplies are derived

from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydropower. In times of drought, such heavy reliance on

hydroelectricity has been problematic, resulting in

widespread power shortages. Hydroelectric generation

accounted for 83 percent of Brazil’s total electricity supply in 2004, and despite ongoing efforts to diversify the

fuel mix for the country’s electricity generation, hydropower is projected to remain Brazil’s predominant

source of electricity through 2030 (Figure 76). In combination, the other nations of Central and South America

rely on hydropower for a smaller percentage of their

electricity supply (51 percent in 2004); and in 2030, the

share of hydropower and other renewable energy

sources in their combined fuel use for electricity generation is projected to be 47 percent. Robust growth in the

use of natural gas and nuclear power is projected to

lessen the region’s overall reliance on hydropower in the

mid-term.

70 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Oil Nuclear RenewablesNatural

Gas

Coal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Billion Kilowatthours

2004

2030

Figure 74. Net Electricity Generation in Africa

by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Billion Kilowatthours

Brazil

Other

Figure 75. Net Electricity Generation in Central and

South America, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 71

2004 2030 2004 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent of Total

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Brazil Other

Figure 76. Net Electricity Generation in Central and

South America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July

2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), p. 431.

2. Global Insight, Inc., “OPA Recommends Canadian

Province of Ontario Keeps Coal-Fired Power Plants

Open Until 2014” (November 16, 2006), web site

www.globalinsight.com.

3. Hydro Quebec Production corporate web site,

Eastmain-1-A Powerhouse and Rupert Diversion: Information Document (February 2005), web site www.

hydroquebec.com/en/.

4. Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Energy Outlook: The Reference Case 2006 (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 2006), p. 45; and J. Ritchie, “Major Investment

Projects—Canada,” Presentation from the Biregional World Energy Council Forum for North America,

Latin America, & the Caribbean, June 4-7, 2006,

Lugar, Mexico, web site www.amedes.org.mx/

2006_publicaciones_foro_biregional.html.

5. Canadian Wind Energy Association press release,

“2006 A Record Breaking Year for the Global Wind

Energy Industry with Canada now Ranking 12th in

the World for Total Installed Wind Energy Capacity,” (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 8, 2007),

web site www.canwea.ca.

6.IEA Wind Energy Annual, (Boulder, CO, June 2006),

web site www.ieawind.org, pp. 97 and 99.

7. Global Wind Energy Council Press Release, “Global

Wind Energy Markets Continue to Boom—2006

Another Record Year” (Brussels, Belgium, February

2, 2007), web site www.awea.org/newsroom/

index.html.

8. S. Mahnovski and K. Kovalenko, The Revival of

Nuclear Power in Russia? CERA Decision Brief (Cambridge, MA, March 2007), pp. 1, 7.

9. S. Saraf, “India Set To Revise Hydroelectric Policy,”

Power in Asia, No. 471 (February 1, 2007), pp. 8-9.

10. “Xiangjiaba Starts Construction,” Power in Asia, No.

467/468 (December 7, 2006), pp. 19-20.

11. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2005 (Paris, France, November 2005), p. 188.

12. International Energy Agency, Energy Balances:

Non-OECD Countries 2006 Edition. International

Energy Agency Data Services (copyright 2007), web

site www.iea.org/stats/eng/main.html.

13. “Mozambique: China to fund Mphanda Nkuwa

hydropower dam,” (May 8, 2006), news @

hydro4africa, web site http://hydro4africa.net/

news.

14. African Development Fund Infrastructure Department, North, East and South Regions, Republic of

Mozambique: Electricity IV Project Appraisal Report

(February 2006), p. vii.

15. P. Tuson, “Power Developments in the Southern

African Region,” IET Power Engineering Magazine,

No. 109 (April 2006), web site www.iee.org/

oncomms/sector/power/magazine.cfm.

16. Global Insight, Inc., “Nigeria Targets 3,500MW

from Hydroelectric Plants” (January 17, 2007), web

site www.globalinsight.com.

Chapter 7

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In 2004, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide were greater than OECD emissions

for the first time. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries

are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.

Carbon dioxide is the most abundant anthropogenic

(human-caused) greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. In

recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent per

year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon

dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil

fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the

center of the climate change debate. In the IEO2007 reference case, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected

to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion

metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.17

From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the

non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, largely

because of a 17-percent increase in coal-related emissions in non-OECD Asia, while emissions from the

OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent. The result

of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that

2004 marked the first time in history that energy-related

carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries

exceeded those from the OECD countries (Figure 77).

Further, because the projected average annual increase

in emissions from 2004 to 2030 in the non-OECD

countries (2.6 percent) is more than three times the

increase projected for the OECD countries (0.8 percent),

carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries

in 2030, at 26.2 billion metric tons, are projected to

exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.

The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total

energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have changed

over time. In 1990, emissions from petroleum and other

liquids combustion made up an estimated 42 percent of

the world total. In 2004, the petroleum share was 40 percent, and in 2030 its share is projected to be 36 percent, of

the world total (Figure 78). Carbon dioxide emissions

from natural gas combustion, which accounted for 19

percent of the total in 1990, increased to 20 percent of the

2004 total. That share is projected to rise to 21 percent in

2030. Coal’s share in 2004 was the same as its share in

1990, at 39 percent; however, its share is projected to

increase to 43 percent in 2030. Coal is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and it is the fastestgrowing energy source in the IEO2007 reference case

projection.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 73

13 13 14 15 15 16 17

12 13

17

19

22

24

26

2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

10

20

30

Billion Metric Tons

OECD Non-OECD

Figure 77. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide

Emissions by Region, 2003-2030

Sources: 2003 and 2004: Energy Information Administration

(EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

Billion Metric Tons

History Projections

Liquids

Natural Gas

Coal

Total

Figure 78. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide

Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

17In keeping with current international practice, IEO2007 presents data on greenhouse gas emissions in billion metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The figures can be converted to carbon equivalent units by multiplying by 12/44.
The increasing share of coal is reflective of its important

role in the energy mix of non-OECD countries—especially China and India. In 1990, China and India combined for 13 percent of world emissions, but by 2004 that

share had risen to 22 percent—largely because of a

strong increase in coal use in these two countries. This

trend is projected to continue; and by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from China and India combined are projected to account for 31 percent of total world emissions,

with China alone responsible for 26 percent of the world

total. As both economies expand, coal will become a

greater part of the world energy mix and play a correspondingly larger role in the composition of world carbon dioxide emissions.

The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating

“Annex I” countries to reduce their greenhouse gas

emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5

percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period,

entered into force on February 16, 2005. Annex I countries include the 24 original OECD countries, the European Union, and 14 countries that are considered

“economies in transition.” Although the Protocol is technically “in force,” it would have an effect on only one

year of the IEO2007 forecast—2010. The IEO2007 projections do not explicitly include the impacts of the Kyoto

Protocol, because the treaty does not indicate the methods by which ratifying parties will implement their obligations. Moreover, the participants have been unable to

agree on a second commitment period, nor on any

actions that might occur after 2012. Until those issues are

resolved, it will be difficult to project the effects of the

Kyoto Protocol through 2030.18

There are some signs that concerns about global climate

change are beginning to affect the world fuel mix. In

recent years, many countries have begun to express new

interest in expanding their use of non-carbon-emitting

nuclear power, in part to stem the growth of greenhouse

gas emissions. The IEO2007 reference case projection for

electricity generation from nuclear power in 2030 is

up by almost 10 percent from the IEO2006 projection,

reflecting a generally more favorable perception of

nuclear power as an alternative to carbon-producing

fossil fuels for electric power production. Many of the

industrialized nations of OECD Europe have ratified the

Kyoto Protocol, and in the IEO2007 reference case the

projected rate of decline in the region’s nuclear electricity generation is considerably slower, at 0.4 percent per

year, than the rate of 1.0 percent per year that was projected in the IEO2006 reference case.

Reference Case

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In the IEO2007 reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by an average of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 11).

For the OECD countries, total emissions are projected to

average 0.8-percent annual growth, from 13.5 billion

metric tons in 2004 to 14.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and

16.7 billion metric tons in 2030. The highest rate of

increase among the OECD countries is projected for

Mexico, at 2.3 percent per year (Figure 79). Mexico is less

developed than most of the OECD countries, and it is

projected to have the highest GDP growth rate in the

OECD region. Much of that GDP growth is expected to

74 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Table 11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030

(Billion Metric Tons)

Region

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change

1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990-2004 2004-2030

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 1.2% 0.8%

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.4 1.3% 1.2%

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 0.5% 0.3%

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5% 0.6%

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 13.5 16.8 19.2 21.6 23.9 26.2 2.3% 2.6%

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 4.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 -2.8% 1.2%

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 7.4 9.7 11.4 13.1 14.8 16.5 5.2% 3.1%

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 4.4% 2.3%

Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5% 2.3%

Central and South America. . 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.1% 2.3%

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 26.9 30.9 33.9 36.9 39.8 42.9 1.7% 1.8%

Sources: 1990 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

18For a modeling analysis of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, see Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006,

DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), “Kyoto Protocol Case,” pp. 75-79, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo.
come from energy-intensive industries. For all the other

OECD countries, annual increases in carbon dioxide

emissions are projected to average less than 1.5 percent,

reflecting the overall maturity of their energy infrastructures. In Japan, emissions are projected to increase by 0.1

percent per year from 2004 to 2030, and the average for

OECD Europe is 0.3 percent per year.

For the non-OECD countries, total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to average 2.6-percent annual growth

(Figure 80). The highest growth rate in the non-OECD

regions is projected for China, at 3.4 percent annually

from 2004 to 2030, reflecting the country’s continued

heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, over the

projection period. China’s energy-related emissions of

carbon dioxide are projected to exceed U.S. emissions by

about 5 percent in 2010 and by 41 percent in 2030. The

lowest growth rate in the non-OECD region is projected

for Russia, at 1.0 percent per year. Over the projection

period, Russia is expected to expand its reliance on

indigenous natural gas resources and nuclear power to

fuel electricity generation, and a decline in its population growth rate is expected to slow the overall rate of

increase in energy demand.

By fuel, world carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of oil and other liquids are projected to grow

at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent from 2004 to

2030. The average growth rates for the OECD and

non-OECD regions are projected to be 0.6 percent and

2.3 percent per year, respectively (Figure 81). The highest rate of growth in petroleum-related carbon dioxide

emissions is projected for China, at 3.5 percent per year,

as its demand for liquid fuels increases to meet growing

demand in the transportation and industrial sectors. The

United States is expected to remain the largest source of

petroleum-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout

the period, with projected emissions of 3.3 billion metric

tons in 2030—still 66 percent above the corresponding

projection for China.

Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion

worldwide are projected to increase on average by 1.9

percent per year, to 9.0 billion metric tons in 2030, with

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 75

2.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.3

0.1

0.8

Mexico

South Korea

Australia/

United States

Canada

OECD Europe

Japan

Total OECD

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Percent per Year

New Zealand

Figure 79. Average Annual Growth in EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in

the OECD Economies, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

1.0

1.6

3.4

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.6

Russia

Other Europe

China

India

Other Asia

Middle East

Africa

Brazil

Other Central and

Total Non-OECD

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Percent per Year

South America

and Eurasia

Figure 80. Average Annual Growth in EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in

the Non-OECD Economies, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

Billion Metric Tons

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

from Liquids Combustion by Region,

1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
the OECD countries averaging 1.2 percent and the nonOECD countries 2.6 percent (Figure 82). Again, China is

projected to see the most rapid growth in emissions,

averaging 6.5 percent annually; however, China’s emissions from natural gas combustion amounted to only 0.1

billion metric tons in 2004, and in 2030 they are projected

to total only 0.4 billion metric tons, or less than 5 percent

of the world total. In contrast, the growth in U.S. emissions is projected to average 0.6 percent per year, but the

projected level of 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030 is more

than triple the projection for China.

Total carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of

coal throughout the world are projected to increase by

2.2 percent per year, from 10.6 billion metric tons in 2004

to 18.5 billion metric tons in 2030. Total coal-related

emissions from the non-OECD countries have been

greater than those from the OECD countries since 1987,

and in 2030 they are projected to be more than double

the OECD total (Figure 83), in large part because of the

increase in coal use projected for China and India.

Together, China and India account for 72 percent of the

projected world increment in coal-related carbon dioxide emissions. For China alone, coal-related emissions

are projected to grow by an average of 3.3 percent annually, from 3.8 billion metric tons in 2004 to 8.8 billion

metric tons (48 percent of the world total) in 2030. India’s

carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion are projected to total 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030, accounting

for 8 percent of the world total.

Carbon Dioxide Intensity Measures

Emissions per Dollar of GDP

In all countries and regions, carbon dioxide intensity—

expressed in emissions per unit of economic output—

are projected to improve (decline) over the projection

period as the world economy moves into a post-industrial phase. In 2004, estimated carbon dioxide intensity

was 470 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in the

OECD region and 516 metric tons per million dollars in

the non-OECD region (Table 12).19

Because of the high rate of economic growth projected

for the non-OECD countries, their carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to be about 263 metric tons per

million dollars. In the OECD countries, carbon dioxide

intensity in 2030 is projected to be 306 metric tons per

million dollars. China, with a relatively high projected

rate of growth in emissions (3.4 percent per year), has an

even higher projected growth rate for GDP (6.5 percent).

In 2030, OECD Europe is projected to have the lowest

carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD regions, at

235 metric tons per million dollars, followed by Mexico

at 273 metric tons per million dollars and Japan at 292

metric tons per million dollars. Without carbon dioxide

constraints, Canada is projected to have the highest carbon dioxide intensity in the OECD region in 2030, at 410

metric tons per million dollars, followed by Australia/

New Zealand at 400 metric tons per million dollars. U.S.

76 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

Billion Metric Tons

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

from Natural Gas Combustion

by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

5

10

15

Billion Metric Tons

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

from Coal Combustion by Region,

1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

19GDP is measured in chain-weighted 2000 dollars converted to the currency of the relevant country or region, based on purchasing

power parity.
carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to be 353

metric tons per million dollars of GDP.

Emissions per Capita

Another measure of carbon dioxide intensity is emissions per person. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in

the OECD region are significantly higher than in the

non-OECD region (Figure 84). If non-OECD countries

consumed as much energy per capita as the OECD countries, the projection for world carbon dioxide emissions

in 2030 would be much larger, because the non-OECD

countries would consume about 3.5 times more energy

than the current reference case estimate of 404 quadrillion Btu. And, given the expectation that non-OECD

countries will rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet their

energy needs, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions

would be even greater.

Among the countries of the non-OECD region, Russia

has the highest projected increase in carbon dioxide

emissions per capita in the IEO2007 reference case, from

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 77

Table 12. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030

(Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)

Region

History Projections

Average Annual

Percent Change

1980 1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990-

2004

2004-

2030

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731 565 470 419 385 353 328 306 -1.3% -1.6%

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 917 701 553 486 448 407 378 353 -1.7% -1.7%

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 867 693 581 545 490 465 437 410 -1.3% -1.3%

Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 441 379 380 353 329 300 273 -1.1% -1.3%

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 672 507 394 349 316 284 258 235 -1.8% -2.0%

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 355 375 336 319 307 299 292 0.4% -1.0%

South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 883 719 694 543 488 451 418 392 -0.3% -2.2%

Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 693 678 621 590 529 480 443 400 -0.6% -1.7%

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687 701 516 434 383 338 298 263 -2.2% -2.6%

Europe/Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,018 1,164 846 643 562 504 446 392 -2.3% -2.9%

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882 1,042 883 689 606 548 494 441 -1.2% -2.6%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,242 1,366 796 587 511 454 396 344 -3.8% -3.2%

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738 605 468 393 346 305 269 238 -1.8% -2.6%

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,766 1,120 610 500 425 367 321 284 -4.2% -2.9%

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 340 298 227 202 178 158 138 -0.9% -2.9%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 352 363 319 302 276 248 220 0.2% -1.9%

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 860 887 821 743 677 609 545 0.2% -1.9%

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 448 425 388 344 301 261 223 -0.4% -2.4%

Central and South America . . . . 314 307 311 288 273 252 230 209 0.1% -1.5%

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 215 231 227 216 201 186 174 0.5% -1.1%

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 388 374 332 313 285 259 230 -0.3% -1.8%

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 713 621 492 427 384 344 309 278 -1.6% -2.1%

Note: GDP is expressed in terms of purchasing power parity.

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

0

5

10

15 Metric Tons per Person

History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 84. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

per Capita by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
12 metric tons per person in 2004 to 17 metric tons per

person in 2030. Russia continues to be a fairly inefficient

energy consumer. With Soviet-era capital equipment

that has not yet been replaced and a wealth of relatively

inexpensive fossil fuel resources, there has been little

incentive for Russia to introduce energy conservation or

efficiency measures. The lowest levels of per capita

emissions in the non-OECD region, and in the world, are

in India and Africa, where they are projected to remain

at about 1 metric ton per person through 2030.

The OECD countries have higher levels of carbon dioxide emissions per capita, in proportion to their higher

per capita incomes. In the United States, emissions per

capita are projected to rise from 20 metric tons in 2004 to

22 metric tons in 2030. In both Canada and Australia/

New Zealand, emissions per capita are projected to rise

from 18 metric tons in 2004 to 19 metric tons in 2030. In

Mexico, with the lowest level of per capita emissions

among the OECD countries, an increase from 4 metric

tons in 2004 to 5 metric tons in 2030 is projected.

As shown in Figures 85 and 86, there is a strong correlation between income and emissions per capita. In the figures, countries and regions that are plotted on the trend

line produce roughly the average amount of carbon

dioxide emissions per capita relative to income per

capita. Countries and regions that appear above the

trend line are more carbon-intensive than average, and

those below the trend line are less carbon-intensive than

average.

Of the OECD countries and regions shown in Figure 85,

two (Canada and the United States) are situated slightly

above the trend line for 2004. Two (South Korea and

Australia/New Zealand) are above the trend line, and

three (Mexico, OECD Europe, and Japan) are below the

trend line. Factors that can influence the position of a

country or region relative to the trend line include level

of industrialization, climate, population density, energy

efficiency, and fuel mix. For example, South Korea,

which is above the trend line, is still in the process of

industrialization. Australia has a low population density and relies heavily on coal for its electricity generation, having no nuclear power capacity. Both Europe

and Japan have relatively dense populations, and both

have nuclear power generation capacity. Also, the economies of both Europe and Japan have entered the

post-industrial phase. The United States benefits from

post-industrialization and nuclear power but has relatively low population density in comparison with

Europe and Japan.

Of the non-OECD countries shown in Figure 85, Brazil is

the farthest below the trend line. Factors contributing to

Brazil’s position include a relatively warm climate, a

high rate of ethanol use for transportation, and ample

hydropower capacity for electricity generation. Africa,

India, other non-OECD Asia, and Central and South

America (excluding Brazil) are slightly below the trend

line. China is slightly above the trend line. Russia is well

above the trend line. The other countries of non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia are above the trend line, as is the

Middle East.

In the 2030 projections, most countries and regions have

roughly the same positions relative to the trend line

(Figure 86) that they did in 2004; however, there are

78 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007



























 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Gross Domestic Product

(Thousand Dollars) per Capita

0

5

10

15

20

25

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

(Metric Tons) per Capita

United States

Canada

Australia/New Zealand

Japan

OECD Europe

South Korea

Russia

Mexico

Other Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

Other Central/South America

Middle East

Other Non-OECD Asia

China

Brazil

India

Africa

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 85. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and

Gross Domestic Product per Capita

by Region, 2004

Source: Derived from Energy Information Administration,

International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site

www.eia.doe.gov/iea.



















 









0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Gross Domestic Product

(Thousand Dollars) per Capita

0

5

10

15

20

25

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

(Metric Tons) per Capita

United States

Australia/New Zealand

Japan

OECD Europe

South Korea

Russia

Mexico

Other Non-OECD

Europe/Eurasia

Other Central/South America

Middle East

Other Non-OECD Asia China

Brazil

India

Africa

OECD

Non-OECD

Canada

Figure 86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and

Gross Domestic Product per Capita

by Region, 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
some exceptions. China moves from slightly above the

trend for 2004 to slightly below the trend for 2030,

mainly as a result of its projected rapid economic growth

and movement toward a post-industrial economy.

China’s GDP is projected to increase by 6.5 percent per

year from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emissions increase by 3.4 percent per year. In addition,

China’s projected population growth rate is lower than

the rates projected for most of the other non-OECD

nations (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia).

Among the other non-OECD countries, India is projected to be the farthest below the trend line for 2030—

surpassing Brazil—indicating that its projected economic growth is less carbon-intensive than in other

countries, as it moves more toward service industries

rather than energy-intensive manufacturing. Per capita

GDP in India is projected to grow by 4.5 percent per year

from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emissions

per capita are projected to increase by only 1.5 percent

per year.

Alternative Macroeconomic Growth

Cases

Economic growth is the most significant factor underlying the projections for growth in carbon dioxide emissions in the mid-term, as the world continues to rely on

fossil fuels for most of its energy use. Accordingly, projections of world carbon dioxide emissions are lower in

the IEO2007 low economic growth case and higher in the

high economic growth case.

In the high growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions

are projected to increase at an average rate of 2.2 percent

annually from 2004 to 2030, as compared with 1.8 percent in the reference case. For the OECD countries, the

projected average increase is 1.2 percent per year; for the

non-OECD countries, the projected average increase is

3.0 percent per year. In the low growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase by 1.4

percent per year, with averages of 0.4 percent per year in

the OECD countries and 2.1 percent per year in the

non-OECD countries (compared with 0.8 percent and

2.6 percent, respectively, in the reference case). Total

emissions worldwide are projected to be 38.4 billion

metric tons in 2030 in the low growth case and 47.6 billion metric tons in the high growth case—24 percent

higher than projected in the low growth case (Figure 87).

The projections for emissions by fuel show similar variations across the cases.

Alternative World Oil Price Cases

The projections for carbon dioxide emissions in the

IEO2007 low and high world oil price cases (Figure 88)

show smaller variations from the reference case than do

those in the macroeconomic growth cases. In 2030, as

compared with the reference case projection (42.9 billion

metric tons), total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be higher in the low price case (43.9 billion metric tons) and lower in the high price case (41.8 billion

metric tons). Thus, there is a 5-percent difference

between the projections in the two alternative world oil

price cases, as compared with a 24-percent difference

between the alternative macroeconomic growth cases.

In the world oil price cases, natural gas prices are

affected more strongly than coal prices. Because natural

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 79

2004

Low

Growth

2030

Reference High

Growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

Billion Metric Tons

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region

in Three Economic Growth Cases,

2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System

for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004

Low

Oil Price

2030

Reference High

Oil Price

0

10

20

30

40

50

Billion Metric Tons

OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 88. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region

in Three World Oil Price Cases,

2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System

for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
gas prices are projected to rise with oil prices in the high

price case, both oil and natural gas lose market share to

coal. In the IEO2007 reference case, coal’s share of total

energy use is projected to increase to 28 percent; in the

high price case, its share increases to 31 percent. As a

result, in the high price case, carbon dioxide emissions

from natural gas combustion in 2030 are projected to

total 8.7 billion metric tons worldwide, down from 9.0

billion metric tons in the reference case. In the low oil

price case, coal’s share of total energy use drops to 26

percent in 2030.

80 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
Appendix A

Reference Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• World Population

Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 83

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix A

84 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 50.6 53.5 56.2 59.1 62.7 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 31.5 33.5 35.3 36.1 36.8 1.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.4 27.9 29.7 33.2 36.8 1.6

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.7 10.8 11.0 0.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1

OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 27.6 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 0.6

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9

Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 99.9 103.5 106.8 110.3 114.4 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 59.6 64.0 67.5 70.0 72.3 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.9 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.6 29.9 32.3 34.5 36.6 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.7 1.0

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4

Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 38.7 44.0 49.1 54.9 61.5 2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.3 16.9 20.5 24.7 29.3 4.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.4 82.9 95.8 107.2 119.2 3.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2

See notes at end of table.
Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2006 85

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 2.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.0 12.8 14.6 15.8 17.1 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.4 10.1 2.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 3.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.4 15.2 16.8 18.4 19.9 2.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.1 7.8 8.5 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 11.0 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4

Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 84.1 94.1 103.8 113.8 124.4 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.0 70.4 79.5 88.5 98.1 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Total World

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 183.9 197.6 210.6 224.1 238.9 1.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 120.6 134.3 147.0 158.5 170.4 1.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,

Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Appendix A

86 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,246 17,549 20,370 23,468 26,884 2.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,790 14,698 17,077 19,666 22,494 2.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,189 1,343 1,491 1,652 1,829 2.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,266 1,508 1,802 2,150 2,560 3.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,890 14,428 16,108 17,902 19,913 2.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,551 6,144 6,645 7,130 7,669 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,789 4,042 4,211 4,339 4,473 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 963 1,175 1,361 1,551 1,764 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 799 926 1,074 1,240 1,433 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,687 38,120 43,123 48,500 54,465 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,769 5,877 7,041 8,356 9,881 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,624 3,148 3,680 4,281 4,954 3.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,144 2,728 3,361 4,075 4,928 4.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,693 32,948 43,049 54,908 69,460 5.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,994 17,912 23,981 31,023 39,594 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,649 7,460 9,646 12,287 15,607 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,050 7,576 9,422 11,598 14,259 4.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,951 2,407 2,920 3,517 4,230 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,942 3,749 4,727 5,923 7,408 4.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,281 5,168 6,207 7,427 8,869 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,778 2,106 2,485 2,922 3,429 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,502 3,061 3,722 4,505 5,440 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,636 50,148 63,943 80,130 99,848 5.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,323 88,268 107,066 128,631 154,313 4.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were

adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World

Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table A19.
Table A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates,

Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 87

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,070 11,667 12,120 14,505 16,682 19,357 22,286 25,504 2.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,790 14,698 17,077 19,666 22,494 2.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 773 799 945 1,067 1,185 1,312 1,453 2.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 593 618 770 917 1,096 1,307 1,557 3.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,896 9,189 9,402 10,755 11,918 13,165 14,474 15,914 2.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,740 5,829 5,982 6,896 7,539 8,050 8,522 9,040 1.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,141 4,759 4,867 5,483 5,850 6,094 6,280 6,473 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 586 614 826 1,008 1,167 1,330 1,513 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 315 484 501 587 680 789 912 1,054 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,706 26,685 27,505 32,156 36,138 40,573 45,282 50,458 2.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 695 606 654 931 1,145 1,372 1,629 1,926 4.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 307 329 452 542 634 738 853 3.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 299 325 479 602 738 891 1,073 4.7

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,474 3,472 3,768 5,762 7,620 9,868 12,483 15,672 5.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 1,550 1,707 2,872 3,959 5,301 6,858 8,752 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 554 601 911 1,204 1,556 1,982 2,518 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 757 1,367 1,459 1,978 2,457 3,011 3,643 4,402 4.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 671 713 965 1,190 1,439 1,724 2,061 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 671 704 960 1,223 1,542 1,930 2,412 4.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 1,063 1,496 1,593 2,083 2,515 3,021 3,616 4,321 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 625 656 807 955 1,127 1,325 1,555 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 600 872 937 1,276 1,560 1,894 2,291 2,766 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,114 6,915 7,432 10,701 13,693 17,242 21,382 26,393 5.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,820 33,601 34,937 42,857 49,831 57,815 66,664 76,850 3.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were

adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World

Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table A19.
Table A5. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix A

88 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 32.0 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.6 23.8 25.0 26.6 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 1.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 0.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 0.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 -0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 49.8 51.6 53.3 55.0 57.1 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.8 21.3 23.8 26.6 29.8 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.6 15.7 3.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 1.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.1 9.8 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.5 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.7 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.1

Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.0 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 40.9 45.8 50.5 55.4 60.5 2.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 90.7 97.3 103.7 110.4 117.6 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A6. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 89

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 30.5 32.4 34.2 34.9 35.5 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.0 25.3 26.3 26.3 26.1 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 1.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.4

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.3 23.0 24.2 25.7 26.9 1.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.5 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 57.6 61.8 65.2 67.7 69.9 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 26.9 29.1 31.4 33.5 35.5 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.6 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 12.8 13.9 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.5 15.8 19.2 23.1 27.4 4.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.7 7.0 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.9 5.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.9 10.0 12.0 14.1 16.5 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.5 12.2 13.9 15.1 16.4 2.5

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 3.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.9 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.3 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.5 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.3 67.2 75.8 84.3 93.3 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 115.9 129.0 141.1 152.0 163.2 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A7. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix A

90 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.4 27.9 29.7 33.2 36.8 1.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.2 25.6 27.3 30.6 34.1 1.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 -0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.7 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 0.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 1.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.4 82.9 95.8 107.2 119.2 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.3 65.3 75.5 85.0 95.2 3.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.7 12.2 13.7 15.2 2.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.8 6.9 8.0 8.5 8.8 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A8. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 91

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 936 1,012 1,015 1,033 0.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 812 885 886 896 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,335 2,406 2,438 2,526 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,972 3,255 3,472 3,619 1.3

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A9. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case,

1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix A

92 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 1.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.6 1.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 1.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.6 2.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 11.0 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 3.1

Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,

and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 93

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,343 7,780 8,230 8,791 9,400 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,214 6,589 6,944 7,425 7,950 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 648 659 694 722 750 1.0

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 481 532 592 644 699 2.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,493 4,558 4,579 4,621 4,684 0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,269 2,353 2,423 2,495 2,569 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,274 1,290 1,294 1,297 1,306 0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 523 574 614 649 691 1.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 472 490 516 549 573 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,105 14,692 15,232 15,907 16,654 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,067 3,301 3,545 3,729 3,878 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,809 1,908 2,018 2,114 2,185 1.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,258 1,393 1,527 1,615 1,693 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,711 11,404 13,115 14,759 16,536 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,497 7,607 8,795 9,947 11,239 3.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,283 1,507 1,720 1,940 2,156 2.6

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,930 2,289 2,600 2,871 3,141 2.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,602 1,788 1,976 2,143 2,306 2.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,140 1,291 1,423 1,543 1,655 2.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,235 1,413 1,562 1,708 1,851 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 403 454 500 544 597 2.3

Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 831 959 1,062 1,165 1,254 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,755 19,197 21,622 23,882 26,226 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,860 33,889 36,854 39,789 42,880 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix A

94 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,202 3,395 3,577 3,762 3,998 0.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,629 2,799 2,947 3,112 3,318 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 293 294 297 299 302 0.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 281 301 333 351 378 1.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,099 2,113 2,125 2,138 2,151 0.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,042 1,075 1,097 1,120 1,144 0.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 642 644 645 648 652 -0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 256 280 292 304 319 1.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 143 151 160 167 172 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,343 6,583 6,799 7,021 7,293 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 712 751 796 833 868 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 391 409 424 440 450 0.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 320 342 373 394 418 1.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,496 2,838 3,165 3,537 3,960 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,200 1,338 1,516 1,730 1,995 3.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 334 403 449 501 545 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 962 1,098 1,200 1,306 1,420 1.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 978 1,065 1,157 1,257 1,348 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 474 547 613 651 696 2.2

Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 838 952 1,052 1,156 1,247 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 293 327 358 390 420 1.9

Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 545 625 694 766 827 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,498 6,153 6,783 7,434 8,118 2.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,842 12,735 13,582 14,455 15,411 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 95

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,655 1,761 1,859 1,901 1,935 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,298 1,369 1,420 1,422 1,412 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 216 227 248 265 281 1.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 140 165 190 213 242 3.4

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,153 1,245 1,311 1,391 1,456 1.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 332 363 385 399 420 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 198 214 223 230 236 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 64 71 77 82 88 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 79 85 88 96 1.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,139 3,369 3,554 3,690 3,810 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,459 1,581 1,705 1,819 1,930 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 945 1,014 1,069 1,123 1,172 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 514 567 635 697 758 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 702 891 1,085 1,302 1,546 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 175 227 282 348 428 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 103 123 152 189 226 5.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 424 541 650 764 893 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 581 675 769 835 905 2.5

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 187 227 265 304 349 3.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 291 341 375 411 447 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 46 53 60 67 77 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 246 287 316 344 370 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,220 3,714 4,199 4,672 5,178 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,359 7,083 7,754 8,362 8,988 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix A

96 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,474 2,611 2,781 3,114 3,453 1.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,275 2,407 2,563 2,877 3,206 1.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 140 138 148 159 168 1.6

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 60 66 69 79 79 3.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,241 1,200 1,143 1,092 1,078 -0.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 896 916 941 976 1,006 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 434 432 425 419 417 -0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 203 224 245 263 284 1.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 259 260 272 294 305 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,611 4,727 4,865 5,183 5,536 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 897 970 1,044 1,076 1,079 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 472 486 525 551 562 0.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 425 484 520 524 517 1.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,513 7,675 8,865 9,919 11,030 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,122 6,043 6,996 7,868 8,816 3.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 846 981 1,119 1,250 1,386 2.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 544 651 750 801 828 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 43 48 50 52 54 1.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 478 517 545 588 610 1.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 105 120 134 141 157 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 64 74 82 87 101 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 41 46 53 54 56 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,037 9,330 10,639 11,776 12,930 2.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,647 14,057 15,505 16,958 18,466 2.2

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Millions)

Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 97

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 366 427 432 457 478 498 518 537 0.8

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 291 294 310 324 337 351 365 0.8

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 32 32 34 35 36 38 39 0.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 104 106 113 119 125 129 133 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497 530 532 543 550 555 559 562 0.2

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 199 199 202 204 204 203 202 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 128 128 128 128 127 125 123 -0.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 0.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 20 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050 1,156 1,163 1,203 1,232 1,257 1,280 1,300 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 348 343 342 338 334 330 325 319 -0.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 145 144 140 137 133 129 125 -0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 198 198 198 198 197 196 193 -0.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,748 3,316 3,356 3,592 3,783 3,958 4,108 4,231 0.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,155 1,299 1,307 1,355 1,393 1,424 1,441 1,446 0.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 849 1,070 1,087 1,183 1,260 1,332 1,395 1,449 1.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 743 946 962 1,054 1,129 1,202 1,271 1,335 1.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 187 191 216 238 260 281 301 1.8

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 636 869 887 1,007 1,115 1,228 1,344 1,463 1.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 360 442 448 486 515 542 567 589 1.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 181 184 198 209 219 228 236 1.0

Other Central and South America. . 210 260 264 287 306 323 339 354 1.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,228 5,156 5,224 5,638 5,986 6,319 6,626 6,903 1.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,278 6,312 6,388 6,841 7,217 7,577 7,906 8,203 1.0

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: United States: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. Other Countries: United Nations,

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:

The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects (February 25, 2005), web site http://esa.un.org/unpp.

Appendix B

High Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 101

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 132.4 142.0 152.4 164.5 177.7 1.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 108.2 116.2 124.1 133.9 144.4 1.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.6 19.9 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.5 9.5 10.8 12.0 13.4 2.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 85.1 88.1 89.9 93.0 96.7 0.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.5 43.4 46.1 48.6 51.7 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.6 27.6 0.8

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.8 11.2 12.5 13.5 14.9 2.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.5 9.1 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 257.9 273.5 288.4 306.2 326.0 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.6 61.6 68.3 74.6 79.6 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 33.4 36.7 39.9 43.5 46.3 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 22.2 25.0 28.4 31.0 33.3 2.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 133.1 160.3 189.3 219.1 252.0 3.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 83.9 100.7 119.5 138.8 160.9 3.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.4 22.4 26.5 30.9 35.3 3.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.8 37.2 43.3 49.4 55.7 3.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.7 30.5 34.6 38.4 42.3 2.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.4 25.0 27.6 2.7

Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.1 32.6 36.8 41.2 45.8 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.4 13.2 14.9 16.8 19.0 2.9

Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.7 19.5 21.9 24.4 26.8 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 260.7 304.9 351.4 398.2 447.2 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 518.6 578.4 639.8 704.4 773.3 2.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix B

102 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 51.8 55.6 59.7 64.3 69.5 1.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 32.1 34.8 36.8 37.9 40.2 1.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.6 28.6 31.5 36.2 40.4 2.0

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.1 1.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 132.4 142.0 152.4 164.5 177.7 1.5

OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 32.4 33.2 34.0 34.8 35.7 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 22.1 24.3 26.0 28.2 30.3 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.7 -0.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 85.1 88.1 89.9 93.0 96.7 0.7

OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.9 2.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 1.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.5 43.4 46.1 48.6 51.7 1.2

Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 101.7 107.2 113.0 119.3 126.3 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 60.5 66.2 70.6 74.4 79.4 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.9 52.2 55.3 60.4 65.4 1.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.1 27.1 28.5 0.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.5 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 257.9 273.5 288.4 306.2 326.0 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 28.1 31.1 34.4 37.7 41.2 1.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.1 12.8 13.1 1.5

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.6 61.6 68.3 74.6 79.6 1.8

Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 39.4 45.8 52.4 60.0 68.9 3.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.5 17.5 21.8 26.8 32.6 5.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 71.5 85.9 101.4 116.1 132.1 3.5

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.1 9.4 10.7 12.1 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 133.1 160.3 189.3 219.1 252.0 3.6

See notes at end of table.
Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 103

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.8 16.5 18.3 20.4 22.4 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.2 13.2 15.4 17.0 18.9 2.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.7 30.5 34.6 38.4 42.3 2.7

Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.4 10.2 11.2 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.4 3.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 2.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.4 25.0 27.6 2.7

Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.6 15.8 17.8 20.1 22.2 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.6 6.7 7.6 8.5 9.6 3.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 10.5 11.7 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.1 32.6 36.8 41.2 45.8 2.8

Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 85.6 97.9 110.6 124.3 139.2 2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 62.0 73.0 84.4 96.4 109.7 3.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.3 104.6 121.9 138.1 155.2 3.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.5 22.1 24.8 27.7 30.7 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 260.7 304.9 351.4 398.2 447.2 3.0

Total World

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 187.3 205.2 223.5 243.5 265.5 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 122.5 139.1 155.0 170.8 189.0 2.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.2 156.8 177.2 198.5 220.6 2.6

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.8 35.7 38.8 40.9 1.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 52.8 57.2 2.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 518.6 578.4 639.8 704.4 773.3 2.1

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,

High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Appendix B

104 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,722 18,597 22,014 26,133 30,687 3.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 13,219 15,619 18,490 21,965 25,757 3.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,213 1,403 1,596 1,812 2,057 2.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,291 1,575 1,928 2,356 2,874 4.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 13,143 15,074 17,246 19,641 22,386 2.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,660 6,419 7,115 7,825 8,625 2.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,864 4,225 4,511 4,766 5,036 1.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 982 1,227 1,455 1,699 1,980 4.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 815 967 1,149 1,360 1,609 3.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 34,526 40,091 46,375 53,599 61,698 3.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,860 6,133 7,527 9,152 11,086 4.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,675 3,287 3,935 4,691 5,561 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,185 2,847 3,592 4,461 5,525 5.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 25,157 34,366 45,975 60,049 77,793 6.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 13,235 18,676 25,600 33,910 44,319 7.0

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,756 7,782 10,304 13,441 17,484 6.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,166 7,907 10,072 12,698 15,989 5.1

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,989 2,513 3,122 3,852 4,745 4.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,998 3,912 5,052 6,483 8,304 5.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,363 5,396 6,638 8,136 9,953 4.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,813 2,199 2,658 3,202 3,850 3.8

Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,551 3,196 3,980 4,934 6,103 4.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 39,367 52,320 68,314 87,671 111,881 5.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 73,893 92,410 114,689 141,270 173,579 4.5

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were

adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World

Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.
Table B4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 105

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 26.4 28.4 30.5 32.9 35.5 1.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.9 23.5 25.3 27.4 29.7 1.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 0.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 0.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 50.7 53.5 56.4 59.6 63.1 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.1 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 19.1 22.2 25.4 29.1 33.4 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.6 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.5 4.0

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.9 2.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.8 7.9 8.8 9.9 11.0 2.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.9 10.9 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.4 2.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.7 9.8 10.8 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 2.6

Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.7 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 41.6 47.6 53.8 60.4 67.7 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 92.3 101.1 110.1 120.0 130.8 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Appendix B

106 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 31.0 33.6 35.6 36.7 38.8 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.5 26.4 27.3 27.4 28.4 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 2.0

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.5 23.6 25.3 27.5 29.5 1.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.4 2.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 1.9

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 58.5 64.0 68.2 71.9 76.6 1.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.3 30.3 33.4 36.7 40.0 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.7 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.4 1.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.6 10.8 12.4 14.0 15.6 2.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.6 16.4 20.4 25.0 30.5 5.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 3.8 4.8 6.1 7.6 6.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 8.0 10.4 12.8 15.4 18.5 4.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.6 12.6 14.7 16.3 18.0 2.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.9 3.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.1 8.0 8.9 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 4.0

Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 2.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 59.2 69.7 80.5 91.8 104.4 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 117.7 133.6 148.8 163.7 181.0 2.3

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 107

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.6 28.6 31.5 36.2 40.4 2.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.4 26.3 29.0 33.3 37.3 1.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 4.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.7 -0.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 0.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.9 52.2 55.3 60.4 65.4 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.1 12.8 13.1 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.9 1.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.2 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 71.5 85.9 101.4 116.1 132.1 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 56.2 67.7 80.1 92.1 105.6 3.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.4 11.1 12.9 14.8 16.8 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.2 9.7 3.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 2.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 4.0

Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.3 104.6 121.9 138.1 155.2 3.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.2 156.8 177.2 198.5 220.6 2.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix B

108 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 961 1,017 1,087 1,147 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 837 890 958 1,010 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,360 2,411 2,510 2,640 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,997 3,260 3,544 3,733 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,

High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 109

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 1.7

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.3 1.7

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 1.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.2

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.5 1.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.1 9.4 10.7 12.1 2.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.2 7.0 2.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 10.5 11.7 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.3 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.5 22.1 24.8 27.7 30.7 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 52.8 57.2 2.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,

and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix B

110 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,450 8,034 8,683 9,477 10,322 1.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,304 6,801 7,322 7,997 8,711 1.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 657 680 732 781 833 1.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 489 553 628 700 778 2.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,553 4,703 4,814 4,958 5,138 0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,302 2,435 2,564 2,704 2,858 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,292 1,332 1,363 1,398 1,440 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 533 599 660 719 793 1.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 478 504 540 587 625 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,305 15,172 16,060 17,139 18,318 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,121 3,437 3,784 4,087 4,365 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,841 1,988 2,154 2,319 2,462 1.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,280 1,449 1,629 1,768 1,903 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,878 11,843 13,925 16,037 18,401 3.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,615 7,908 9,344 10,810 12,500 3.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,302 1,560 1,821 2,105 2,403 3.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,961 2,375 2,760 3,122 3,499 3.1

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,627 1,852 2,093 2,322 2,559 2.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,158 1,337 1,505 1,670 1,834 2.7

Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,256 1,470 1,665 1,868 2,081 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 411 474 536 601 682 2.8

Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 845 996 1,128 1,267 1,398 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 17,040 19,940 22,971 25,984 29,240 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 31,346 35,112 39,031 43,123 47,558 2.2

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 111

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,264 3,513 3,778 4,073 4,409 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,682 2,896 3,112 3,371 3,659 1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 297 304 312 321 331 0.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 285 313 353 380 419 2.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,127 2,179 2,231 2,287 2,346 0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,058 1,113 1,160 1,211 1,265 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 651 665 680 697 716 0.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 261 292 312 335 361 1.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 146 156 168 179 188 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,449 6,804 7,168 7,571 8,020 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 725 785 853 916 980 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 399 428 455 485 509 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 326 357 398 432 470 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,540 2,955 3,375 3,864 4,433 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,223 1,395 1,619 1,892 2,236 4.0

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 339 419 479 547 611 2.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 978 1,142 1,277 1,424 1,587 2.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 994 1,106 1,229 1,367 1,502 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 482 567 649 706 772 2.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 853 990 1,120 1,261 1,395 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 299 340 382 426 471 2.3

Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 554 650 738 835 924 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,595 6,403 7,226 8,113 9,081 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 12,044 13,207 14,395 15,684 17,101 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix B

112 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,685 1,829 1,937 1,995 2,113 1.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,324 1,425 1,475 1,480 1,537 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 218 233 260 282 305 2.0

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 143 171 202 233 271 3.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,166 1,281 1,374 1,490 1,597 1.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 336 375 407 433 470 2.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 201 221 237 250 266 1.9

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 65 73 82 90 100 2.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 70 81 88 93 104 2.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,187 3,485 3,718 3,918 4,180 1.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,483 1,643 1,817 1,993 2,174 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 961 1,055 1,140 1,230 1,320 1.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 522 588 676 763 854 2.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 712 922 1,149 1,413 1,722 5.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 177 233 296 373 469 6.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 105 128 162 207 254 5.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 431 561 691 833 999 4.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 589 697 811 899 998 2.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 190 236 281 331 391 3.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 296 354 400 451 506 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 47 56 66 78 94 4.0

Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 249 298 334 373 412 2.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,271 3,853 4,458 5,088 5,791 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,458 7,338 8,176 9,006 9,971 2.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 113

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,489 2,679 2,955 3,396 3,786 2.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,286 2,466 2,721 3,132 3,501 2.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 142 144 160 177 197 2.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 61 69 74 86 88 4.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,260 1,243 1,209 1,181 1,195 -0.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 908 947 997 1,059 1,123 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 439 446 447 450 459 0.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 207 235 266 295 332 2.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 262 267 284 315 332 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,657 4,869 5,160 5,637 6,104 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 912 1,009 1,114 1,178 1,212 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 480 505 559 604 633 1.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 432 504 554 574 579 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,626 7,966 9,401 10,760 12,246 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,215 6,280 7,428 8,544 9,795 3.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 858 1,013 1,180 1,351 1,538 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 552 673 792 865 913 3.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 44 49 53 56 59 2.0

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 485 534 574 633 672 2.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 107 126 144 156 180 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 65 78 89 97 117 4.0

Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 42 48 56 59 62 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,174 9,684 11,286 12,783 14,368 3.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,831 14,553 16,446 18,419 20,472 2.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

Appendix C

Low Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table C1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 117

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 128.4 132.9 137.8 142.0 146.3 0.7

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 104.8 108.5 112.2 115.3 118.5 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.4 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 0.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.9 9.7 10.2 10.9 1.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.2 83.5 82.5 82.4 82.4 0.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.9 41.9 42.5 43.2 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.5 0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.5 10.4 11.1 11.5 12.1 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 251.0 257.3 262.1 266.8 271.9 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 53.6 56.5 59.3 61.2 61.6 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.3 34.0 35.4 36.9 37.4 0.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.9 24.3 24.2 0.8

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.0 149.3 169.0 187.2 205.7 2.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 81.2 93.6 106.6 118.7 131.6 3.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 17.9 21.0 23.8 26.5 28.9 2.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 29.8 34.7 38.6 42.0 45.2 2.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 25.9 28.4 30.9 32.8 34.4 1.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.6 18.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 1.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.2 30.4 32.9 35.2 37.3 2.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.0 12.2 13.3 14.3 15.4 2.1

Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.2 18.1 19.6 20.9 21.9 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 252.3 283.1 312.2 337.8 361.7 2.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 503.3 540.4 574.3 604.6 633.6 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix C

118 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 49.5 51.1 52.9 54.4 56.0 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 30.8 32.4 33.7 33.9 33.9 0.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.3 27.0 28.0 30.1 32.5 1.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.4 10.5 10.4 0.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 128.4 132.9 137.8 142.0 146.3 0.7

OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 31.5 31.2 30.8 30.4 30.0 -0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.6 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.1 1.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.3 11.5 10.7 10.3 -0.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 0.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.2 83.5 82.5 82.4 82.4 0.1

OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.1 1.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 0.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.9 41.9 42.5 43.2 0.5

Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 98.1 99.6 101.0 102.1 103.3 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 58.6 62.0 64.3 65.4 66.1 0.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.9 49.1 49.2 50.6 52.6 0.5

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.8 0.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.1 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 251.0 257.3 262.1 266.8 271.9 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.0 28.4 29.6 30.4 31.0 0.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.8 0.4

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 53.6 56.5 59.3 61.2 61.6 0.8

Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 38.0 42.3 46.1 50.3 55.0 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.1 16.3 19.4 22.7 26.3 4.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 69.3 80.0 90.5 99.0 107.6 2.7

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 2.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.0 149.3 169.0 187.2 205.7 2.8

See notes at end of table.
Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 119

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.0 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 10.9 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 2.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 25.9 28.4 30.9 32.8 34.4 1.9

Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.8 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.1 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 2.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 1.5

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.6 18.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 1.9

Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.1 14.6 15.7 16.9 17.8 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.4 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.5 2.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.3 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.2 30.4 32.9 35.2 37.3 2.0

Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 82.5 90.2 97.1 103.9 110.7 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 59.9 67.5 74.2 80.2 86.3 2.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 85.5 97.2 108.3 117.1 125.5 2.4

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.1 21.0 22.9 24.9 26.8 2.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 252.3 283.1 312.2 337.8 361.7 2.2

Total World

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 180.6 189.8 198.1 206.0 214.0 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 118.5 129.4 138.6 145.6 152.4 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 134.4 146.2 157.5 167.7 178.2 1.7

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.3 37.8 39.2 1.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.0 42.4 44.8 47.5 49.9 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 503.3 540.4 574.3 604.6 633.6 1.4

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,

Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Appendix C

120 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 14,767 16,506 18,762 20,865 23,155 2.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,359 13,777 15,686 17,399 19,249 2.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,166 1,285 1,392 1,505 1,626 1.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,242 1,444 1,684 1,961 2,279 3.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,640 13,806 15,040 16,310 17,702 1.8

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,444 5,879 6,203 6,494 6,815 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,539 3,612 3,679 3,736 3,789 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 945 1,126 1,272 1,415 1,570 3.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 784 886 1,003 1,131 1,275 2.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 32,851 36,190 40,006 43,669 47,672 2.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,640 5,520 6,380 7,302 8,324 3.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,575 3,015 3,439 3,906 4,410 3.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,065 2,505 2,941 3,397 3,913 4.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,236 31,582 40,297 50,186 61,987 5.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,756 17,176 22,458 28,369 35,353 6.0

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,544 7,150 9,027 11,227 13,925 5.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 5,936 7,257 8,812 10,589 12,709 4.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,915 2,305 2,730 3,210 3,768 3.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,887 3,591 4,421 5,409 6,605 4.4

Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,199 4,948 5,802 6,776 7,899 3.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,744 2,017 2,322 2,665 3,053 2.9

Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,455 2,932 3,479 4,111 4,846 3.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 37,876 47,947 59,629 72,882 88,582 4.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 70,727 84,138 99,635 116,552 136,254 3.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were

adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World

Overview, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.
Table C4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 121

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.3 26.1 27.0 27.7 28.5 0.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.7 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 -0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 -0.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 48.9 49.6 50.3 50.9 51.5 0.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.4 20.5 22.3 24.4 26.7 2.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.2 10.1 11.1 12.4 14.0 3.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 1.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.8 1.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.8 1.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.4 1.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.7 1.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.6

Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.4 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 40.1 43.9 47.2 50.5 53.8 1.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 89.0 93.5 97.6 101.4 105.3 0.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Appendix C

122 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 29.8 31.3 32.6 32.7 32.8 0.7

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.1 24.7 24.2 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 2.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.0 22.3 23.1 24.0 24.5 1.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.7 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 56.7 59.9 62.2 63.2 63.9 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 26.3 27.6 28.8 29.6 30.2 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.2 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 0.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.6 10.3 10.7 11.0 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.3 15.3 18.2 21.3 24.6 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.4 6.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.4 4.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.7 9.6 11.3 13.0 14.8 3.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.4 11.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.5 2.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.1 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.4

Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 57.2 64.4 70.8 76.4 82.0 2.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 113.9 124.3 133.0 139.6 145.9 1.5

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 123

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.3 27.0 28.0 30.1 32.5 1.1

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.1 24.9 25.8 27.7 30.2 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.4

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.3 11.5 10.7 10.3 -0.9

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 -0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.9 49.1 49.2 50.6 52.6 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.8 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.4 0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.4 0.2

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 69.3 80.0 90.5 99.0 107.6 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 54.4 62.9 71.3 78.4 85.9 2.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.6 12.6 13.7 2.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.7 6.7 7.6 7.9 8.0 2.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.7

Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 85.5 97.2 108.3 117.1 125.5 2.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 134.4 146.2 157.5 167.7 178.2 1.7

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix C

124 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 933 982 990 982 0.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 809 855 861 845 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,332 2,376 2,413 2,475 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,969 3,225 3,447 3,568 1.2

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,

Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 125

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.1 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 1.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 0.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.8

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.1 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 2.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.1 2.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.3

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.5

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.3 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.4 2.8

Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.1 21.0 22.9 24.9 26.8 2.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.0 42.4 44.8 47.5 49.9 1.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,

and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix C

126 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,237 7,513 7,798 8,103 8,446 0.8

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,125 6,363 6,583 6,842 7,141 0.7

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 639 638 657 668 676 0.6

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 473 513 558 593 629 1.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,434 4,419 4,355 4,307 4,269 -0.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,237 2,274 2,290 2,302 2,309 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,257 1,249 1,228 1,204 1,183 -0.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 514 549 570 584 601 0.7

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 466 476 492 514 525 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 13,907 14,206 14,443 14,712 15,023 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 2,993 3,119 3,232 3,272 3,275 0.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,777 1,832 1,890 1,926 1,937 0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,216 1,287 1,342 1,346 1,338 0.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,564 11,004 12,381 13,616 14,899 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,400 7,340 8,305 9,185 10,143 3.0

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,264 1,457 1,625 1,789 1,936 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,899 2,207 2,450 2,642 2,820 2.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,578 1,725 1,867 1,979 2,080 1.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,123 1,248 1,346 1,427 1,495 1.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,213 1,358 1,465 1,562 1,647 1.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 396 435 465 491 523 1.7

Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 818 923 1,000 1,071 1,125 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,472 18,454 20,291 21,856 23,396 2.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,379 32,660 34,734 36,568 38,419 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 127

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,143 3,261 3,384 3,487 3,600 0.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,578 2,686 2,787 2,884 2,983 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 289 285 282 279 276 -0.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 276 291 315 325 341 1.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,072 2,049 2,024 1,999 1,972 -0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,026 1,038 1,037 1,036 1,035 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 633 623 613 603 594 -0.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 251 268 273 277 283 0.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 142 147 152 156 158 0.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,240 6,348 6,445 6,523 6,607 0.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 692 705 720 726 728 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 384 391 395 399 398 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 308 314 326 327 330 0.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,452 2,726 2,970 3,241 3,539 2.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,179 1,283 1,421 1,583 1,781 3.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 328 388 422 459 486 1.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 945 1,056 1,128 1,198 1,272 1.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 963 1,026 1,089 1,156 1,211 1.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 467 528 579 602 628 1.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 824 915 988 1,060 1,116 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 288 314 336 356 374 1.4

Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 535 601 652 703 741 1.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,398 5,899 6,347 6,784 7,222 1.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,638 12,248 12,792 13,307 13,829 0.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix C

128 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,620 1,704 1,775 1,781 1,785 0.7

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,269 1,325 1,359 1,337 1,311 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 214 221 237 248 258 1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 138 158 178 196 216 2.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,140 1,211 1,251 1,299 1,326 1.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 327 351 364 367 375 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 196 206 211 210 209 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 63 68 72 74 77 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 77 81 82 88 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,088 3,266 3,389 3,447 3,486 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,427 1,500 1,563 1,606 1,638 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 929 974 1,003 1,024 1,040 0.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 498 526 561 581 598 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 691 860 1,024 1,200 1,389 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 172 220 269 325 391 6.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 101 119 143 173 201 4.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 418 521 612 702 798 3.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 573 653 730 774 820 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 184 219 250 280 312 2.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 287 328 352 375 395 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 45 50 54 58 63 2.4

Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 242 277 298 317 332 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,163 3,561 3,920 4,235 4,554 2.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,250 6,827 7,309 7,682 8,040 1.5

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 129

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,461 2,535 2,626 2,821 3,048 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,265 2,340 2,423 2,607 2,834 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 137 132 138 141 142 0.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 59 64 65 73 71 3.4

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,222 1,158 1,080 1,008 970 -0.9

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 883 885 889 899 899 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 428 419 404 390 379 -0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 199 213 225 233 241 0.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 256 253 259 276 279 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,566 4,579 4,595 4,728 4,917 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 874 914 948 940 909 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 464 467 492 503 499 0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 410 447 456 437 410 0.2

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,421 7,417 8,386 9,175 9,971 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,049 5,837 6,615 7,276 7,971 2.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 835 950 1,060 1,157 1,250 2.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 537 629 710 742 751 2.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 43 46 48 48 49 1.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 472 501 518 546 554 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 103 115 125 127 137 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 63 71 75 77 86 2.7

Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 40 45 50 50 51 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 7,912 8,993 10,025 10,837 11,620 2.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,478 13,572 14,620 15,565 16,536 1.7

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

Appendix D

High World Oil Price Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 133

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 129.3 134.8 142.7 149.9 157.6 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 105.5 109.9 115.8 121.6 127.7 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.6 16.0 17.0 17.6 18.3 1.1

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.9 10.0 10.7 11.6 2.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.6 84.1 85.3 86.2 86.9 0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.5 42.4 43.8 45.3 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.2 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.3 0.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.2 11.9 12.8 1.4

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 252.3 259.4 270.4 279.9 289.8 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.2 60.7 67.0 70.3 72.1 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 33.2 36.3 39.4 41.3 42.2 1.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 22.0 24.4 27.6 29.0 29.9 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.4 149.6 174.2 197.0 219.7 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 81.6 94.0 110.1 125.1 140.8 3.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 17.9 20.8 24.3 27.7 30.8 2.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 29.9 34.8 39.9 44.2 48.2 2.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.6 29.9 32.9 34.9 36.9 2.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.7 18.5 20.6 22.4 23.9 2.2

Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.3 30.5 33.8 36.7 39.5 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.0 12.2 13.5 14.7 16.2 2.3

Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.3 18.3 20.4 22.0 23.2 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 255.2 289.1 328.5 361.3 392.1 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 507.4 548.5 598.9 641.3 681.9 1.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix D

134 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 49.8 50.4 52.0 54.1 56.6 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 30.7 32.3 33.8 34.2 34.8 0.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.7 29.1 32.2 35.7 39.4 1.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.9 11.6 11.9 1.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 129.3 134.8 142.7 149.9 157.6 1.0

OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 30.6 28.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 -0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.9 23.4 25.6 26.3 26.7 1.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.3 0.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.6 84.1 85.3 86.2 86.9 0.3

OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 16.6 15.8 15.7 16.2 16.5 -0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 1.0

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.5 42.4 43.8 45.3 0.7

Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 96.9 94.7 95.6 98.6 101.4 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 58.7 62.0 66.4 67.6 68.8 1.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 50.8 54.8 58.3 61.8 66.0 1.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.2 27.2 28.3 0.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.4 22.6 24.0 24.7 25.4 1.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 252.3 259.4 270.4 279.9 289.8 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.9 11.3 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.8 30.2 33.6 34.6 35.7 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 10.4 12.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 1.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 2.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.2 60.7 67.0 70.3 72.1 1.4

Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 37.0 39.0 42.4 47.8 53.4 2.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.1 16.4 20.9 24.4 28.1 4.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.5 83.0 97.0 108.7 120.4 3.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.7 10.7 11.6 2.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.4 149.6 174.2 197.0 219.7 3.1

See notes at end of table.
Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 135

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.4 15.0 15.4 16.8 18.1 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.4 13.8 16.3 16.8 17.6 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.6 29.9 32.9 34.9 36.9 2.2

Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.6 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.6 2.4

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.7 18.5 20.6 22.4 23.9 2.2

Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 12.8 13.4 14.4 16.0 17.2 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.6 6.8 7.7 8.3 8.7 2.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.3 30.5 33.8 36.7 39.5 2.2

Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 80.9 84.4 90.1 99.6 108.7 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.4 71.2 83.3 89.5 96.2 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.0 103.9 119.9 132.9 145.3 3.0

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.6 22.4 25.5 27.6 29.5 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 255.2 289.1 328.5 361.3 392.1 2.5

Total World

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 177.8 179.1 185.7 198.2 210.1 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 120.1 133.2 149.6 157.1 165.0 1.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.8 158.7 178.2 194.7 211.3 2.4

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.6 35.8 38.9 40.7 1.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 41.0 45.0 49.5 52.3 54.9 2.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 507.4 548.5 598.9 641.3 681.9 1.6

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,

High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Appendix D

136 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,160 17,372 20,309 23,458 26,862 2.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,707 14,544 17,024 19,658 22,476 2.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,190 1,339 1,490 1,651 1,829 2.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,262 1,489 1,795 2,149 2,557 3.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,832 14,251 16,049 17,894 19,894 2.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,528 6,040 6,611 7,126 7,659 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,774 3,977 4,190 4,337 4,467 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 958 1,151 1,352 1,550 1,761 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 796 912 1,069 1,240 1,431 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,520 37,663 42,969 48,478 54,415 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,762 5,866 7,037 8,356 9,880 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,626 3,156 3,682 4,282 4,955 3.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,136 2,709 3,354 4,074 4,925 4.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,585 32,501 42,873 54,878 69,385 5.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,928 17,638 23,872 31,004 39,547 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,629 7,339 9,599 12,279 15,587 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,028 7,523 9,402 11,595 14,251 4.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,989 2,483 2,947 3,521 4,240 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,927 3,699 4,708 5,920 7,400 4.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,262 5,103 6,183 7,423 8,860 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,774 2,092 2,480 2,921 3,427 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,488 3,011 3,703 4,502 5,433 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,524 49,652 63,749 80,098 99,766 5.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,044 87,315 106,718 128,575 154,181 4.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model (February 2007). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview,

Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007,

DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.
Table D4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 137

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.5 27.6 28.7 0.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -0.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 14.8 13.8 13.5 13.6 13.7 -0.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.1 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 -0.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 48.3 47.3 47.7 49.2 50.5 0.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 0.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.0 18.9 20.5 23.2 25.9 2.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.8 13.6 2.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.8 1.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.5 1.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 1.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.2 1.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.8 8.4 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 1.5

Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.2 1.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 39.3 41.0 43.8 48.4 52.9 1.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 87.7 88.3 91.6 97.6 103.3 0.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Appendix D

138 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 29.8 31.2 32.9 33.3 33.8 0.8

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.1 24.1 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.3 22.8 25.0 25.6 26.0 1.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.8 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 56.8 59.9 64.3 65.5 66.6 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.0 29.3 32.6 33.7 34.7 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.6 19.0 20.7 21.0 21.4 1.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.4 10.3 11.9 12.6 13.4 1.8

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.3 15.4 19.5 22.7 26.2 4.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.2 7.3 6.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 4.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.7 9.6 11.9 13.7 15.6 3.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.9 13.2 15.5 16.0 16.8 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.7 3.0

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.2 7.7 8.2 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 3.1

Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.8 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.6 67.9 79.4 85.2 91.5 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 115.4 127.8 143.7 150.8 158.1 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 139

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.7 29.1 32.2 35.7 39.4 1.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.4 26.6 29.6 32.8 36.4 1.8

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.3 0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 0.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 50.8 54.8 58.3 61.8 66.0 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 10.4 12.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.5 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.7 1.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.8 6.1 6.7 6.8 6.8 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.5 83.0 97.0 108.7 120.4 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.0 64.1 74.9 84.5 94.3 3.2

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.4 11.0 12.7 14.3 15.8 2.6

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 6.1 7.9 9.3 10.0 10.3 3.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.6 2.4

Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.0 103.9 119.9 132.9 145.3 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.8 158.7 178.2 194.7 211.3 2.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix D

140 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 938 1,028 1,095 1,127 0.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 814 901 966 990 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,337 2,422 2,518 2,620 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,974 3,271 3,552 3,713 1.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,

High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 141

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 1.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 1.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.4

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.4 22.6 24.0 24.7 25.4 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 2.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.7 10.7 11.6 2.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.2 6.7 2.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.8

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.4 7.0 3.2

Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.6 22.4 25.5 27.6 29.5 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 41.0 45.0 49.5 52.3 54.9 2.0

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,

and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix D

142 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,278 7,626 8,091 8,575 9,108 1.1

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,156 6,456 6,830 7,239 7,701 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 646 651 683 710 735 0.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 477 519 577 626 672 2.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,468 4,491 4,550 4,584 4,610 0.2

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,248 2,287 2,366 2,436 2,493 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,260 1,249 1,255 1,258 1,258 0.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 516 548 592 627 664 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 472 490 519 550 571 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 13,994 14,404 15,007 15,594 16,210 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,110 3,426 3,746 3,890 3,994 1.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,840 1,996 2,152 2,221 2,264 1.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,270 1,430 1,594 1,669 1,729 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,613 11,077 12,822 14,443 16,083 3.0

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,432 7,376 8,588 9,727 10,924 3.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,274 1,467 1,683 1,905 2,110 2.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,907 2,234 2,551 2,811 3,049 2.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,617 1,807 1,973 2,095 2,224 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,131 1,260 1,393 1,512 1,611 2.2

Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,206 1,326 1,453 1,591 1,712 2.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 389 411 438 483 534 1.8

Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 817 915 1,015 1,108 1,177 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,676 18,894 21,387 23,531 25,623 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,670 33,299 36,395 39,125 41,833 1.7

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 143

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,145 3,188 3,290 3,425 3,577 0.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,597 2,661 2,750 2,862 2,989 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 280 261 255 259 260 -0.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 269 266 285 304 327 1.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,007 1,873 1,831 1,855 1,857 -0.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 997 951 948 976 993 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 615 571 558 566 567 -0.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 245 245 251 265 277 0.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 137 134 138 145 149 0.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,150 6,011 6,069 6,255 6,426 0.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 684 677 694 732 762 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 378 373 372 388 397 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 306 305 322 344 365 0.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,390 2,514 2,731 3,078 3,436 2.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,151 1,184 1,313 1,508 1,731 2.9

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 319 356 388 436 472 1.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 920 975 1,030 1,133 1,233 1.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 963 1,008 1,036 1,129 1,217 1.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 451 478 521 559 596 1.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 802 844 906 1,006 1,082 1.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 281 290 308 337 362 1.3

Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 522 554 598 669 720 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,291 5,521 5,889 6,504 7,093 1.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,440 11,533 11,958 12,759 13,520 0.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix D

144 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,616 1,698 1,770 1,793 1,821 0.8

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,251 1,282 1,289 1,286 1,284 0.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 224 249 282 289 296 1.9

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 142 167 199 218 241 3.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,154 1,233 1,353 1,390 1,412 1.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 322 335 365 371 382 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 191 191 203 207 210 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 63 67 76 79 82 1.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 76 85 86 90 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,092 3,266 3,489 3,555 3,615 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,468 1,592 1,772 1,829 1,886 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 954 1,030 1,121 1,139 1,157 1.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 514 562 651 690 729 1.8

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 691 868 1,101 1,286 1,483 4.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 178 246 325 381 445 6.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 97 104 133 165 194 4.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 415 518 644 740 844 3.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 603 728 858 888 927 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 182 213 255 288 322 3.0

Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 297 357 409 436 461 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 45 51 57 64 74 3.1

Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 251 305 352 372 388 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,241 3,757 4,396 4,727 5,080 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,333 7,022 7,885 8,281 8,694 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table D12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 145

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,503 2,726 3,016 3,344 3,696 1.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,295 2,499 2,778 3,077 3,414 1.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 142 142 146 162 178 1.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 67 86 93 104 103 4.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,307 1,385 1,366 1,338 1,341 0.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 928 1,002 1,054 1,089 1,119 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 454 487 493 485 481 0.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 208 236 265 284 305 1.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 266 280 296 319 332 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,739 5,113 5,436 5,770 6,155 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 957 1,156 1,280 1,329 1,346 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 507 593 659 694 711 1.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 450 563 621 635 635 1.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,532 7,695 8,990 10,079 11,163 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,103 5,946 6,951 7,837 8,748 3.2

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 857 1,007 1,162 1,304 1,444 2.6

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 572 742 877 938 972 3.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 51 71 78 78 79 3.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 498 569 616 665 693 2.4

Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 107 125 138 149 168 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 63 70 73 82 99 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 44 55 65 67 69 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,145 9,617 11,102 12,301 13,450 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,884 14,730 16,538 18,071 19,605 2.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

Appendix E

Low World Oil Price Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 149

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.8 139.2 146.7 154.1 162.8 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 106.9 113.6 119.3 125.0 131.7 1.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.4 1.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.5 12.6 2.5

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.8 88.0 88.3 89.8 91.9 0.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.4 43.5 45.5 47.3 49.5 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.8 25.0 25.6 26.1 26.8 0.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.8 11.3 12.3 13.1 14.2 1.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 256.1 270.6 280.6 291.3 304.2 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.9 64.5 67.9 70.6 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.8 35.5 37.5 39.4 40.8 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.9 24.3 27.0 28.5 29.8 1.6

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 132.5 159.4 184.5 209.1 235.9 3.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 83.4 99.8 116.1 132.1 150.3 3.6

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.3 22.3 25.9 29.7 33.2 3.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.7 37.2 42.5 47.3 52.3 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.2 30.0 33.4 36.4 39.3 2.4

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.0 24.1 26.1 2.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.0 32.6 36.1 39.8 43.5 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.3 13.2 14.7 16.3 18.2 2.7

Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.7 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 2.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 258.5 301.7 340.6 377.3 415.5 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 514.6 572.3 621.2 668.5 719.6 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix E

150 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 51.4 55.9 59.8 63.6 68.4 1.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 31.8 34.6 37.0 38.8 40.0 1.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.6 30.8 0.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.9 0.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.8 139.2 146.7 154.1 162.8 1.1

OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 33.1 34.9 35.8 37.1 38.0 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 22.1 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.6 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 12.5 10.9 10.3 9.6 9.3 -1.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 0.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.8 88.0 88.3 89.8 91.9 0.5

OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.9 19.4 20.1 21.2 22.0 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.5 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.5 1.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 0.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.4 43.5 45.5 47.3 49.5 1.0

Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 102.3 110.2 115.7 121.9 128.4 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 60.4 67.1 70.4 73.3 76.1 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.0 46.5 47.0 47.8 49.9 0.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 25.3 25.6 26.3 0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.5 1.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 256.1 270.6 280.6 291.3 304.2 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.7 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.8 31.1 33.0 34.2 36.1 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 0.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.9 64.5 67.9 70.6 1.4

Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 39.9 47.6 54.1 62.5 71.2 3.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.7 18.3 21.8 25.4 30.0 4.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.2 82.5 95.2 105.9 117.6 3.1

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.8 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 132.5 159.4 184.5 209.1 235.9 3.4

See notes at end of table.
Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 151

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.7 16.3 18.3 20.6 22.5 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 10.9 13.0 14.5 15.0 16.1 2.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.2 30.0 33.4 36.4 39.3 2.4

Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 11.8 2.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 7.0 3.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.3

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.0 24.1 26.1 2.5

Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.8 16.4 18.5 20.9 23.0 2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.1 2.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.6

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.4 2.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.0 32.6 36.1 39.8 43.5 2.6

Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 86.4 100.9 113.6 128.8 143.2 2.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.6 73.6 81.7 88.2 97.4 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.0 98.3 112.1 123.2 135.0 2.7

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.6 25.3 27.5 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 258.5 301.7 340.6 377.3 415.5 2.7

Total World

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 188.7 211.0 229.4 250.7 271.6 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 122.0 140.7 152.1 161.5 173.5 2.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 133.9 144.8 159.1 171.0 184.9 1.9

Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 34.9 37.3 38.7 1.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.2 43.2 45.7 48.0 51.0 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 514.6 572.3 621.2 668.5 719.6 1.9

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not

equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of

generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting country.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity,

Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Billion 2000 Dollars)

Appendix E

152 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,308 17,648 20,429 23,506 26,927 2.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,850 14,786 17,129 19,700 22,532 2.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,189 1,344 1,492 1,652 1,830 2.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,269 1,518 1,808 2,154 2,565 3.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,929 14,510 16,155 17,932 19,945 2.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,567 6,188 6,670 7,145 7,685 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,798 4,069 4,225 4,348 4,481 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 967 1,187 1,367 1,555 1,768 3.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 802 932 1,077 1,243 1,435 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,804 38,346 43,253 48,583 54,557 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,774 5,884 7,046 8,360 9,885 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,623 3,145 3,677 4,280 4,952 3.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,150 2,740 3,368 4,080 4,933 4.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,770 33,173 43,200 55,017 69,597 5.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 13,041 18,051 24,076 31,092 39,681 6.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,663 7,516 9,682 12,313 15,640 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,066 7,606 9,441 11,612 14,275 4.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,927 2,372 2,898 3,502 4,212 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,953 3,776 4,744 5,935 7,423 4.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,294 5,200 6,227 7,440 8,885 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,782 2,113 2,489 2,925 3,432 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,513 3,087 3,737 4,515 5,453 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,717 50,405 64,114 80,254 100,002 5.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,521 88,751 107,367 128,837 154,559 4.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., Global

Scenario Model (February 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007)

(Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.
Table E4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 153

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 26.2 28.5 30.5 32.4 34.8 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.6 23.4 25.0 26.6 28.6 1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 0.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.4 0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.8 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 51.0 54.8 57.6 60.7 64.0 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.2 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 19.3 23.1 26.2 30.3 34.5 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.7 11.4 13.1 15.5 18.1 4.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.1 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.9 8.2 9.1 10.3 11.4 2.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 10.1 11.0 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.7 2.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.7 8.0 9.0 10.2 11.2 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.7

Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.0 3.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 42.0 49.0 55.3 62.6 69.6 2.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 93.0 103.9 112.9 123.4 133.6 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

Appendix E

154 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 30.8 33.5 35.8 37.5 38.7 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.4 26.4 28.0 29.3 29.7 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 1.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.5 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.9 1.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 6.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.0 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 1.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 58.4 64.8 68.1 70.8 73.5 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.0 30.3 32.1 33.3 35.1 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 19.3 20.0 20.4 21.2 1.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.5 10.9 12.0 12.9 14.0 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.8 17.2 20.4 23.8 28.1 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.7 6.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 8.1 10.8 12.8 14.6 16.9 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.4 12.4 13.8 14.3 15.4 2.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.5 3.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.1 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 3.6

Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.8 70.3 77.9 84.0 92.6 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 117.3 135.1 146.0 154.9 166.2 2.0

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 155

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.6 30.8 0.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 23.9 24.5 25.2 26.3 28.4 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 12.5 10.9 10.3 9.6 9.3 -1.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 -0.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.0 46.5 47.0 47.8 49.9 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 0.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 0.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.6 0.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.2 82.5 95.2 105.9 117.6 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.6 66.1 76.4 85.5 95.7 3.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.3 11.7 13.0 14.3 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.1 7.4 7.5 2.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.0 98.3 112.1 123.2 135.0 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 133.9 144.8 159.1 171.0 184.9 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix E

156 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 933 942 944 936 0.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 809 815 815 799 0.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,332 2,336 2,367 2,429 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,969 3,185 3,401 3,522 1.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region,

Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 157

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 1.2

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 0.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.5 1.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.8 2.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.3 2.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.6

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.4 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.5 2.9

Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.6 25.3 27.5 2.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.2 43.2 45.7 48.0 51.0 1.7

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol,

and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix E

158 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,375 7,886 8,361 8,836 9,434 1.2

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,241 6,673 7,040 7,424 7,929 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 650 666 707 740 770 1.1

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 485 548 614 672 736 2.5

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,518 4,635 4,671 4,733 4,823 0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,286 2,402 2,487 2,578 2,668 0.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,286 1,324 1,338 1,354 1,372 0.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 529 593 635 675 723 1.5

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 471 485 514 549 574 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,179 14,923 15,520 16,148 16,926 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,046 3,275 3,503 3,643 3,784 1.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,794 1,891 1,988 2,053 2,116 0.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,252 1,384 1,514 1,589 1,668 1.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,807 11,688 13,466 15,182 17,062 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,567 7,810 9,041 10,237 11,597 3.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,290 1,531 1,751 1,981 2,206 2.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,950 2,347 2,674 2,964 3,259 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,599 1,817 2,028 2,212 2,396 2.4

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,148 1,318 1,460 1,591 1,714 2.4

Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,257 1,482 1,656 1,844 2,023 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 413 482 541 606 674 2.7

Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 843 999 1,115 1,238 1,349 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,857 19,579 22,112 24,472 26,980 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 31,036 34,503 37,632 40,619 43,906 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 159

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,263 3,576 3,844 4,096 4,422 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,672 2,932 3,148 3,353 3,633 1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 302 319 329 342 351 0.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 289 325 367 401 439 2.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,171 2,294 2,351 2,439 2,497 0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,076 1,165 1,210 1,273 1,322 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 663 696 710 735 752 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 265 305 323 347 371 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 148 164 176 190 200 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,510 7,035 7,404 7,808 8,241 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 732 799 866 937 993 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 401 433 459 492 513 1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 330 367 408 445 480 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,574 3,072 3,490 4,026 4,580 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,237 1,454 1,675 1,972 2,309 4.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 345 438 496 571 631 2.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 992 1,181 1,318 1,483 1,640 2.5

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 987 1,096 1,227 1,384 1,509 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 492 596 682 749 814 2.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 864 1,029 1,160 1,315 1,445 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 303 355 397 445 488 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 561 674 763 870 957 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,649 6,593 7,425 8,411 9,341 2.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 12,158 13,627 14,829 16,219 17,583 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case,

1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Appendix E

160 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,672 1,820 1,945 2,041 2,105 1.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,318 1,428 1,512 1,583 1,609 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 213 223 242 249 261 1.4

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 141 169 190 208 235 3.2

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,168 1,313 1,349 1,395 1,457 1.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 344 402 418 426 450 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 207 237 243 247 254 1.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 66 78 83 87 94 1.9

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 71 87 91 92 102 2.0

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,183 3,534 3,711 3,862 4,012 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,468 1,644 1,742 1,808 1,908 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 949 1,048 1,086 1,106 1,146 1.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 519 596 656 702 762 2.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 723 966 1,150 1,341 1,586 4.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 176 228 277 329 408 6.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 110 152 183 225 266 5.7

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 437 586 690 788 911 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 574 686 764 791 849 2.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 194 251 287 323 369 3.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 290 341 369 395 428 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 47 56 63 73 84 3.6

Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 244 285 306 322 344 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,249 3,888 4,311 4,657 5,140 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,433 7,422 8,023 8,520 9,151 2.0

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table E12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 161

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,428 2,478 2,560 2,685 2,893 1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,239 2,301 2,368 2,474 2,673 0.9

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 135 123 136 148 158 1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 55 54 56 63 62 2.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,179 1,028 972 899 870 -1.3

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 867 836 859 879 897 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 417 392 384 372 366 -0.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 199 210 229 241 258 1.1

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 251 234 246 267 272 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,474 4,342 4,391 4,464 4,659 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 847 832 894 898 884 0.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 444 411 444 456 457 0.1

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 403 421 450 442 426 0.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,510 7,649 8,825 9,815 10,897 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,154 6,129 7,089 7,936 8,880 3.3

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 835 941 1,072 1,186 1,308 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 521 580 665 693 708 2.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 38 36 38 37 38 0.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 461 470 492 519 531 1.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 102 112 127 135 150 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 64 72 81 88 102 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 39 40 46 47 48 1.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 7,959 9,099 10,376 11,403 12,499 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,433 13,441 14,767 15,867 17,158 1.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007

National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of

Global Energy Markets (2007).

Appendix F

Reference Case Projections

by End-Use Sector and Region

Table F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 165

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.0 0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 20.2 21.7 22.8 23.7 24.9 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 0.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 17.8 20.4 22.6 24.6 26.6 2.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.7 53.9 59.0 62.7 65.8 69.0 1.4

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.3 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 14.6 17.0 19.2 21.5 24.0 2.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 28.3 31.7 34.6 37.5 40.7 2.0

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.5 61.0 64.5 67.9 70.9 74.2 1.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.2 51.5 56.6 63.1 68.3 73.3 1.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.4 39.5 45.3 50.4 55.9 62.0 2.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 28.6 32.2 36.1 39.9 44.3 2.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163.6 183.1 201.4 220.5 238.1 257.1 1.8

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.9 95.4 104.1 112.9 122.7 133.8 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.7 97.5 106.3 115.4 125.3 136.5 1.7

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157.6 173.4 186.5 199.3 212.5 227.2 1.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.3 79.9 87.2 95.4 102.0 108.8 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 44.2 50.4 55.6 60.9 66.8 2.0

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.1 61.9 70.6 79.0 87.2 96.1 2.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 1.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323.5 362.9 398.4 433.2 466.7 503.3 1.7

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 123.2 148.2 161.0 173.8 187.0 198.3 1.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.6 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.2 40.7 47.1 51.6 56.5 61.6 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.7 92.2 101.2 111.6 122.0 132.4 2.2

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.3 36.9 39.8 42.7 46.0 49.2 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175.2 210.1 231.6 252.9 274.2 294.5 2.0

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168.2 183.9 197.6 210.6 224.1 238.9 1.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.4 120.6 134.3 147.0 158.5 170.4 1.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy

Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F2. Total OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

166 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 -0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 0.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.9 1.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8 0.6

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.1 0.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.5 13.5 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.6 1.2

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.2 30.0 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 22.1 22.8 24.5 25.7 26.6 1.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.9 10.2 0.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.0 0.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 1.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.4 74.4 76.5 79.1 81.9 84.9 0.6

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.9 59.4 62.4 65.5 68.4 71.9 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57.9 60.5 63.7 66.9 69.9 73.4 0.9

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.6 96.2 99.9 103.3 106.8 111.1 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.3 41.4 42.9 45.2 46.7 48.1 0.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.3 10.6 0.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.0 33.3 35.3 37.4 39.3 41.9 1.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176.8 184.1 191.5 199.4 207.0 215.7 0.8

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 62.9 70.3 73.7 75.7 78.9 82.3 1.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 -0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.8 18.2 21.1 22.3 23.3 24.2 2.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.6 39.5 40.6 42.2 45.2 48.7 1.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.9 20.7 1.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.9 103.6 109.0 113.1 118.2 124.2 1.1

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 99.9 103.5 106.8 110.3 114.4 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.1 59.6 64.0 67.5 70.0 72.3 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy

Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 167

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 -0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 0.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.5 1.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.8 0.7

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 2.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.4 1.5

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.6 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.8 10.1 0.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 1.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 0.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 26.3 27.0 27.8 29.2 30.5 0.6

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 29.1 31.3 33.4 35.7 38.3 1.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.9 29.9 32.1 34.3 36.6 39.3 1.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 40.9 43.3 45.5 48.0 51.1 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.8 0.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.0 1.0

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.1 13.5 14.5 15.4 16.5 17.6 1.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.9 77.5 81.7 86.0 90.8 96.0 1.0

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 29.0 30.6 32.2 33.6 35.1 1.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.6 7.3 7.4 6.8 6.1 0.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 22.1 23.5 25.1 27.9 31.1 1.7

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.9 42.5 45.1 47.6 50.0 52.8 1.2

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 41.8 44.3 46.5 49.0 52.1 0.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1 24.7 26.1 27.0 27.1 26.9 0.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 24.2 25.6 27.3 30.6 34.1 1.6

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Includes net electricity imports.

Sources: 2004: Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC, August

2006). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy

Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.
Table F4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

168 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.9

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.2

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.6 1.3

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 1.0

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.9 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.5 1.4

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 169

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 4.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 3.1

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 4.6

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.7 2.2

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.1 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 3.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 2.4

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 4.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.3

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 2.6

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.8 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.8

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F6. Delivered Energy Consumption in OECD Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

170 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 -0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 0.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 0.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 0.2

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.5

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 0.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 0.5

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.7 8.8 0.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 -0.6

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 0.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 24.9 25.3 26.0 26.2 26.6 0.3

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 0.2

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.2 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.9 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.8 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.3 16.5 0.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.2 -0.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.8 0.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.3 60.8 61.7 62.9 63.6 64.6 0.3

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 20.8 23.3 24.1 23.2 23.9 24.6 0.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 6.8 8.3 8.8 10.0 11.1 3.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.4 8.3 -0.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 0.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.1 34.2 35.4 34.9 36.0 37.3 0.7

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.3 21.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 27.6 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F7. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 171

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.4

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.5

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 -0.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 0.1

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 0.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 0.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 -0.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 1.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.9 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.0 0.2

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.5 1.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.8 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.0 11.4 1.0

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 -0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 -0.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F8. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

172 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.8

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 2.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 1.2

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 1.3

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 2.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.8 2.4

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.8 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.5

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F9. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 173

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.2

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.0

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 0.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 1.1

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.4

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.2

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F10. Total Non-OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

174 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 1.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.4 11.5 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 0.5

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.3 13.7 3.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 24.4 28.5 31.5 33.8 36.2 2.4

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 4.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.7 10.8 12.5 14.3 16.1 3.7

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.1 33.0 36.1 39.1 41.6 44.2 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 29.3 33.8 38.6 42.6 46.7 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.9 30.1 35.7 41.0 46.0 51.8 2.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.2 19.2 22.5 25.8 29.3 3.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91.2 108.7 124.9 141.3 156.2 172.2 2.5

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.0 36.1 41.7 47.4 54.2 61.9 3.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.8 37.0 42.7 48.5 55.4 63.1 2.9

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.9 77.2 86.7 96.0 105.7 116.1 2.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.0 38.5 44.4 50.2 55.3 60.7 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.7 34.3 40.4 45.7 50.6 56.2 2.5

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.1 28.6 35.3 41.7 47.8 54.2 3.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 4.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146.7 178.7 206.9 233.8 259.6 287.5 2.6

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 60.2 77.9 87.3 98.1 108.1 116.0 2.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.3 1.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 22.5 26.0 29.3 33.2 37.4 2.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.1 52.7 60.5 69.4 76.8 83.7 3.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 19.1 21.4 23.6 26.1 28.5 2.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.3 106.5 122.6 139.8 156.0 170.2 2.8

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 84.1 94.1 103.8 113.8 124.4 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.3 61.0 70.4 79.5 88.5 98.1 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F11. Delivered Energy Consumption in Russia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 175

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 1.5

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.6

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 0.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 1.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.2 0.7

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 1.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.4 0.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.7 2.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.0 27.1 0.9

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 8.9 10.5 11.8 12.7 14.1 14.5 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.6 7.4 7.8 8.4 8.8 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.7 1.6

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 13.6 15.3 16.7 18.5 19.2 1.9

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 0.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.4 17.9 19.2 20.3 21.3 22.2 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 0.9

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia by End-Use Sector and

Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

176 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 2.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 1.5

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.2

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.0 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 8.9 9.7 10.6 11.1 11.5 1.5

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.7 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.0 1.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 2.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9 14.8 16.2 17.8 18.8 19.7 1.7

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 7.1 7.8 9.0 9.8 10.2 1.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.4 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 1.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 9.5 10.7 12.3 13.4 14.1 1.9

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 9.7 10.7 12.0 13.2 14.4 1.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 1.1

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.2

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F13. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 177

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 6.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 0.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.3 7.5 8.5 9.4 10.4 3.4

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 7.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.0

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.5 2.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 6.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 18.6 23.1 27.3 31.4 36.5 3.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.6 11.2 12.8 3.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 37.7 44.8 51.8 58.9 67.3 3.4

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.8 7.3 9.4 12.0 15.2 5.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.1 7.7 9.7 12.3 15.5 4.9

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 18.8 20.9 23.7 27.2 31.6 3.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.2 6.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 21.6 26.3 30.5 34.4 39.3 3.0

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 9.2 11.8 14.5 17.3 20.1 4.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.7 52.6 63.1 73.8 84.9 98.1 3.6

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 20.9 29.9 34.0 39.1 43.4 47.3 3.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 -1.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 6.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 33.8 39.0 45.1 50.5 55.9 3.5

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 7.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.4 39.1 45.8 53.6 60.7 67.4 3.5

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 19.3 21.5 24.4 27.8 32.1 3.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.6 8.1 6.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 55.3 65.3 75.5 85.0 95.2 3.3

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 7.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.6 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F14. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

178 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.6

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.0

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.0

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 5.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 5.4

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 4.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.8 2.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 7.0 8.2 9.6 11.1 12.6 2.7

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.3

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 4.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.7 2.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.4 3.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 11.8 14.3 16.4 18.8 20.9 2.9

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 6.3 7.4 8.7 9.9 11.0 2.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 5.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.4 7.3 8.4 9.4 10.5 2.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 9.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 9.0 10.8 12.7 14.6 16.4 3.1

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.5 6.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 2.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.3 10.7 12.2 13.7 15.2 2.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 9.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 179

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.2

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 2.9

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 4.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.8

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.4 4.6 5.8 6.9 8.1 4.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 2.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 12.3 14.9 17.2 19.4 21.7 2.8

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.4 10.6 2.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.5 10.6 2.1

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 12.7 14.4 15.8 17.2 18.8 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.0 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.1 4.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.1

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.8 3.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 22.6 27.1 30.8 34.6 38.5 2.7

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 3.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.8 3.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 3.4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 10.9 13.0 15.1 16.9 18.4 3.2

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 13.9 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.6 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.0 10.2 12.3 14.5 16.9 4.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.9 8.0 8.5 8.8 2.8

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F16. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

180 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 1.8

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.4

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 3.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 3.4

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.3 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.0 8.6 9.2 2.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 10.9 12.7 14.6 15.7 16.7 2.3

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 2.7

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 12.0 13.1 14.3 15.6 16.7 2.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.9 8.3 9.6 10.3 11.1 2.6

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.7 2.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 21.4 24.2 27.0 29.4 31.7 2.4

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.5 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.0 2.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.4 10.2 2.1

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 2.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 11.0 12.8 14.6 15.8 17.1 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F17. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 181

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 3.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 3.8

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.3

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 3.1

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.1 9.9 2.3

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 2.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.2

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.7 2.5

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.2 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.4

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.5

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 12.1 14.3 16.2 17.8 19.3 2.5

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 2.2

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.8 9.5 2.3

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.4 10.1 2.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 3.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F18. Delivered Energy Consumption in Brazil by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Appendix F

182 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.8

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 4.9

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 4.6

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.4

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.6 2.1

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 2.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 2.1

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.4 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.1 9.2 10.3 11.3 12.5 2.3

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 3.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 6.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.8

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.8 3.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.8 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.8 3.2

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 1.9

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 3.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.3

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 3.1

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table F19. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel,

2004-2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 183

Sector/Fuel 2004

Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4

Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 3.0

Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.6 1.8

Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.6 3.2

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.9 7.7 3.2

All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.5 11.5 2.5

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.1 2.3

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.3

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 12.8 14.8 16.5 18.2 19.6 2.4

Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3

Electric Powera

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.0

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.3 1.9

Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 11.4 12.3 2.3

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.0 2.4

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8

Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3

a

Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators.

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

Appendix G

Projections of Petroleum and Other Liquids

Production in Three Cases:

• Reference

• High World Oil Price

• Low World Oil Price

Table G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 187

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 37.8 42.1 46.6 51.3 56.8 2.0

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 -2.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 23.3 26.0 29.9 33.8 38.6 2.0

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 0.8

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 3.8

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.9

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 4.0

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 8.9 9.4 10.4 12.9 16.4 1.7

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.2

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 1.3

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.7

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.7

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.2 3.9

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.3

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.1

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 0.4

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 52.9 55.3 57.2 59.1 60.9 0.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.6 0.0

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 0.7

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.5 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 1.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 -0.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.9 -2.9

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 30.5 32.7 34.7 36.7 38.3 1.5

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.5 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 0.8

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 4.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.0 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 1.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 -0.3

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 1.6

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.3 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 90.7 97.4 103.8 110.4 117.7 1.4

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 42% 43% 45% 46% 48%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 26% 27% 29% 31% 33%

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix G

188 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 36.8 40.7 44.8 49.0 54.1 1.9

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 -2.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 23.1 25.6 29.2 33.0 37.5 1.9

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 0.8

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 3.8

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.9

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 8.9 9.4 10.4 12.9 16.4 1.8

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.2

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 1.3

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.7

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.7

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.2 3.9

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.3

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.1

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 -1.1

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 49.4 50.9 51.7 52.4 53.1 0.5

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 19.9 19.6 18.9 18.0 17.6 -0.7

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.1 14.1 0.0

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.1 0.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 -1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 -0.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.7 -3.2

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -3.4

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 -3.1

United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 -5.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.2

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.2

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).
Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 189

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 29.5 31.3 32.8 34.4 35.6 1.2

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.5 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 0.8

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 4.3

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.8

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.4

Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7

Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 5.4

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.1 -0.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 -0.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2

Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4

Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -2.1

Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.9

Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.7

Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 1.4

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.3

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.4

Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -1.9

Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.6

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.5

Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 —

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.1

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.8 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.5

Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 -1.2

Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7

Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.8

Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7

Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 86.2 91.6 96.5 101.4 107.2 1.1

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 44% 46% 48% 50%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 28% 30% 33% 35%

Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix G

190 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 5.0

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 4.0

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 10.6

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.7 7.8 5.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.4 5.0 4.9

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 5.2

Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.7

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 29.9

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 8.2

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 7.1

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 12.3

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2

World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 6.2

Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.7

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 4.2

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 13.7

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 5.4

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.5 5.8 7.3 9.0 10.5 5.6

Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 —

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 5.6

Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 —

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 22.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.2

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 —

Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the

United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 191

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 35.3 35.6 36.7 40.0 43.2 0.9

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 -3.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 21.4 22.0 23.5 26.2 28.8 0.9

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 -0.3

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.7

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.8

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.6

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 7.6 8.3 8.4 10.1 11.6 0.4

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.2

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 -0.4

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.9 2.8

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.1

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 2.0

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 0.4

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 52.4 52.8 54.9 57.7 60.2 0.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.1 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.4 0.3

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.3 16.8 18.3 19.7 20.9 1.1

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.2 9.6 10.5 11.2 11.9 1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.7 2.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 -0.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 4.9 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.7 -3.2

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 30.3 31.0 32.2 34.2 35.8 1.2

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.4 0.4

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.9

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.5

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.9 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 1.2

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 -0.5

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 1.3

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.0 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 3.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 87.7 88.4 91.6 97.6 103.4 0.9

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 40% 40% 40% 41% 42%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28%

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix G

192 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 34.3 34.0 34.5 37.2 39.9 0.7

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 -3.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 21.2 21.6 22.7 25.2 27.5 0.7

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 -0.3

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.7

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.8

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 7.6 8.3 8.4 10.1 11.6 0.4

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.2

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 -0.4

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.9 2.8

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.1

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 2.0

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 -2.2

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 48.8 47.5 47.4 48.2 49.2 0.2

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 19.6 18.4 17.8 17.3 17.1 -0.8

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.9 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 0.0

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.5 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 -1.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 -0.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 4.9 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.4 -3.6

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -3.7

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 -3.5

United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 -5.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.6

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).
Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 193

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 29.3 29.1 29.7 30.9 32.1 0.8

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.4 0.4

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.9

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 4.3

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.0

Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3

Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 4.9

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.6

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 -0.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 -0.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8

Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0

Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -2.5

Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.9

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.2

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 -1.3

Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.1

Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.0

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.9

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.9

Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -2.3

Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.0

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -1.9

Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 —

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.7

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.1

Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 -1.6

Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3

Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4

Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3

Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 83.1 81.4 81.9 85.4 89.1 0.4

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 44% 46% 48% 50%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 28% 30% 33% 35%

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels per Day)

Appendix G

194 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 5.8

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 4.9

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 11.3

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.6 5.3 7.4 9.5 11.0 7.2

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.9 6.2 7.3 6.4

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 5.7

Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.5

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 35.3

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.8

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.7 9.5

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 9.3

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 13.0

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8

World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 7.7

Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.5

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0 5.0

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.9 3.9 15.9

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 6.3

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.6 6.9 9.7 12.2 14.3 6.8

Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 6.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 —

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 —

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 5.8

Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 —

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 23.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.9

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 —

Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the

United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 195

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 39.4 41.9 46.3 53.9 61.5 2.3

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 24.5 26.2 30.1 35.7 41.5 2.3

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 1.4

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.4

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.5

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.6

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 9.7 9.8 10.8 13.5 16.4 1.7

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 2.8

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 1.9

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.3

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.3

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.5 7.6 8.1 9.3 10.7 4.5

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.9

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.7

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 -0.2

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 53.6 62.1 66.6 69.5 72.2 1.5

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.6 23.9 23.7 23.2 23.0 0.0

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.7 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.3 0.6

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.7 0.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.8 0.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.7 -2.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 31.0 38.2 42.9 46.3 49.2 2.4

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 14.0 17.8 20.1 21.9 23.5 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.2 12.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 2.0

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.1 6.9 7.7 5.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.9 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 1.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.2 1.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 0.7

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.7 2.5

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.2 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.4 3.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.5 4.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 2.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 93.0 103.9 112.9 123.4 133.7 1.9

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 42% 40% 41% 44% 46%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 26% 25% 27% 29% 31%

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix G

196 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 38.4 40.9 45.2 52.6 60.1 2.3

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 24.4 25.9 29.6 35.3 40.9 2.3

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 1.4

Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.4

Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.5

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.6

Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 9.7 9.8 10.8 13.5 16.4 1.8

United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 2.8

North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 1.9

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.3

Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.3

West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.5 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.7 4.5

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.9

Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.7

South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 -0.5

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 50.3 59.0 63.4 65.8 68.2 1.4

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 20.3 21.8 21.6 20.9 20.4 -0.1

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 14.5 15.7 16.0 15.9 15.9 0.5

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.3 0.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 -0.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 0.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 -2.2

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2.3

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 -2.0

United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 -4.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).
Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Continued)

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 197

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 30.0 37.2 41.8 45.0 47.8 2.4

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 14.0 17.8 20.1 21.9 23.5 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.2 12.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 2.0

Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.1 6.9 7.7 5.5

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 6.0

Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6

Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.9

Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 6.6

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9

Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.5 7.3 8.0 8.1 8.2 0.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3

Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6

Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -1.0

Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6

Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8

Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.3

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3

Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 3.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.6 2.6

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 4.5

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 4.5

Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.8

Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4

Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 —

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 4.3

Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.9 6.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 4.7

Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.1

Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.9

Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 3.0

Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.9

Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 88.7 99.9 108.6 118.5 128.3 1.8

OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 41% 42% 44% 47%

Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 26% 27% 30% 32%

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Table G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)

Appendix G

198 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OPECa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.5

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.5

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 7.9

Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.0

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.6

Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1

Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.3

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 5.6

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.5

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 9.6

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3

World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0

Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1

Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6

Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 10.0

Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.9

Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.4 2.9

Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.1

Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 —

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 19.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 —

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

a

OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the

United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for

the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).
Appendix H

Reference Case Projections for

Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel

Table H1. World Total Installed Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 201

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,114 1,177 1,164 1,234 1,317 1,418 0.9

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 946 998 960 1,010 1,076 1,159 0.8

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 122 136 144 150 155 1.0

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 56 68 80 91 104 2.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 726 756 782 820 841 895 0.8

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 413 424 436 446 465 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 273 271 277 281 289 0.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 77 83 86 89 94 1.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 57 63 69 73 76 81 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,199 2,345 2,370 2,491 2,605 2,777 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 398 439 484 530 575 627 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 230 248 271 288 312 1.4

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 209 236 259 287 315 2.1

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715 905 1,118 1,329 1,533 1,745 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 510 631 764 886 1,014 3.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 165 201 233 262 296 3.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 192 230 286 332 385 436 3.2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 144 163 179 197 216 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 132 164 201 225 247 3.4

Central and South America . . . . . . 213 260 294 331 366 402 2.5

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 119 139 161 183 204 3.4

Other Central and South America. . 126 141 155 170 184 198 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 1,880 2,223 2,571 2,897 3,236 2.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,741 4,225 4,593 5,062 5,501 6,014 1.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H2. World Installed Liquids-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Appendix H

202 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 144 141 113 113 112 111 -1.0

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 121 92 91 91 89 -1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444433 -1.6

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 16 17 18 18 19 1.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 24 23 23 22 21 -1.7

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 42 38 37 36 35 -0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 34 31 30 30 30 -0.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776655 -1.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 111111 -1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 207 175 173 170 167 -1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 24 21 20 19 19 18 -1.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 865555 -1.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 15 15 14 14 13 -0.8

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 56 58 61 63 64 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 11 11 11 11 9 -1.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 5 6 6 6 1.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 35 40 42 44 46 49 1.3

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 47 54 58 64 70 2.5

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 10 11 11 12 12 0.9

Central and South America . . . . . . 27 28 28 28 28 27 0.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 5 5 5 5 1.0

Other Central and South America. . 23 22 23 23 23 22 -0.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 162 171 177 185 191 0.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 369 346 351 355 358 -0.1

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H3. World Installed Natural-Gas-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 203

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 341 382 384 415 446 487 1.4

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 349 338 358 381 411 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 13 18 21 21 21 2.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 20 27 36 44 55 4.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 225 263 305 334 379 2.8

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 149 156 161 164 174 1.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 119 120 124 127 133 1.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 16 17 17 17 18 2.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 9 14 19 21 20 23 3.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639 756 803 881 944 1,039 1.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 142 175 203 224 248 288 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 108 120 131 136 153 2.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 67 84 94 111 135 3.9

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 108 146 178 228 286 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 11 17 24 38 58 8.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 16 23 27 32 36 5.0

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 70 81 106 126 158 192 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 82 93 104 116 127 2.8

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 53 72 98 114 129 4.7

Central and South America . . . . . . 48 62 73 86 98 111 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 10 13 16 19 21 4.5

Other Central and South America. . 41 52 60 70 79 90 3.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377 479 588 690 803 941 3.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,016 1,235 1,391 1,571 1,748 1,980 2.6

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H4. World Installed Coal-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Appendix H

204 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 340 350 361 392 447 508 1.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 325 329 354 406 465 1.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 16 22 25 26 25 1.2

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 8 11 13 15 17 3.8

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 173 158 157 145 145 -1.1

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 115 112 112 115 117 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 47 43 41 40 40 -0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 35 36 36 36 38 1.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 33 33 33 35 38 40 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 636 637 631 661 706 770 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 105 114 124 137 147 158 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 48 48 53 56 60 0.8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 66 76 84 91 98 2.2

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 541 685 827 948 1,073 3.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 379 475 584 675 768 4.1

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 105 128 146 164 186 3.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 42 57 81 97 109 119 4.0

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 9 9 9 9 1.7

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 45 55 66 73 79 3.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 6 10 13 14 15 16 4.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 5 7 7 7 8 6.7

Other Central and South America. . 4 5 6 7 7 8 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 717 885 1,053 1,192 1,335 3.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,180 1,354 1,516 1,714 1,899 2,105 2.3

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H5. World Installed Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 205

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 112 117 119 129 129 131 0.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 101 102 112 112 113 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 15 15 15 16 17 1.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 129 126 115 113 114 -0.6

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 66 75 83 86 92 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 49 53 57 58 60 1.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 17 22 26 28 32 2.7

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 311 319 326 327 336 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 42 41 46 57 66 65 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 22 27 33 41 42 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 18 18 23 25 22 0.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 20 36 51 65 72 6.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 9 18 28 36 42 7.6

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 9 13 17 19 7.8

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 6 6 8 10 12 11 2.7

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 011111 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 2 2 3 3 1.8

Central and South America . . . . . . 3 3 4 5 5 5 1.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 3 3 3 3 1.6

Other Central and South America. . 1 1 1 2 2 2 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 67 89 116 139 145 3.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 378 408 442 466 481 1.0

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H6. World Installed Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generating Capacity by Region and Country,

2004-2030

(Gigawatts)

Appendix H

206 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 206 220 223 228 235 243 0.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 134 136 137 139 142 0.6

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 75 76 79 84 88 0.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 11 11 12 12 12 0.6

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 205 212 220 228 236 1.0

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 41 43 44 45 47 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 23 24 25 26 27 0.5

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 15 15 16 17 17 18 0.6

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 466 478 492 508 526 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 86 88 91 93 95 98 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 46 47 49 50 51 0.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 42 43 44 45 47 0.5

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 180 194 213 229 249 1.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 100 109 117 126 136 1.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 34 36 41 43 48 1.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 40 46 49 55 60 65 1.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 7 7 7 8 8 0.8

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 22 23 23 24 24 0.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 129 158 177 199 222 244 2.5

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 97 112 130 148 168 3.3

Other Central and South America. . 56 61 65 69 73 77 1.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 455 490 535 578 624 1.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 838 921 969 1,026 1,086 1,150 1.2

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H7. World Total Net Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 207

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 4,619 5,141 5,579 5,990 6,409 6,887 1.5

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,804 4,214 4,519 4,810 5,125 5,487 1.4

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 640 708 757 795 835 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 287 352 423 488 565 3.3

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,250 3,470 3,564 3,709 3,833 4,044 0.8

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,586 1,873 1,976 2,061 2,138 2,259 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 974 1,133 1,155 1,183 1,209 1,257 1.0

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 447 506 541 570 617 2.3

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 266 293 315 336 360 385 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,455 10,484 11,120 11,759 12,380 13,190 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,497 1,768 2,036 2,284 2,503 2,731 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882 997 1,121 1,258 1,375 1,493 2.0

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615 770 915 1,026 1,128 1,238 2.7

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,517 4,778 6,161 7,488 8,807 10,185 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,080 2,894 3,728 4,587 5,446 6,339 4.4

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631 867 1,098 1,292 1,492 1,705 3.9

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,018 1,335 1,608 1,869 2,141 3.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 740 849 947 1,062 1,185 2.9

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 643 797 975 1,113 1,235 3.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 882 1,140 1,326 1,506 1,672 1,838 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 556 677 783 888 996 3.8

Other Central and South America. . 501 584 649 723 784 842 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,969 9,069 11,169 13,200 15,157 17,174 3.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,424 19,554 22,289 24,959 27,537 30,364 2.4

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H8. World Net Liquids-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,

2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix H

208 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 210 192 210 213 213 215 0.1

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 95 103 103 105 107 -0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 14 16 14 12 10 -1.0

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 83 91 95 96 98 1.0

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 79 76 75 70 67 -1.5

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 116 109 104 104 104 -0.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 90 83 80 79 78 -0.2

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 24 24 22 23 24 0.2

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 2 2 1 1 2.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 387 394 392 387 386 -0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 49 44 44 42 42 41 -0.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 16 16 15 15 15 -1.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 28 28 27 27 26 -0.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 162 189 202 210 207 1.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 37 43 48 48 37 0.5

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 16 18 19 20 20 1.5

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 91 108 128 135 142 149 1.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 249 283 312 346 381 2.6

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 55 61 62 63 65 1.0

Central and South America . . . . . . 91 92 94 97 102 98 0.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 13 14 14 13 13 1.2

Other Central and South America. . 82 78 80 83 88 86 0.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 601 671 714 762 792 1.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 937 988 1,065 1,106 1,149 1,178 0.9

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H9. World Net Natural-Gas-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and

Country, 2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 209

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 833 1,038 1,224 1,324 1,317 1,317 1.8

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715 897 1,023 1,065 1,011 942 1.1

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 37 56 63 66 67 2.8

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 104 146 195 241 307 5.1

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 749 898 1,070 1,230 1,394 3.8

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 473 509 526 536 571 2.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 356 367 380 388 411 1.6

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 69 76 73 76 78 2.6

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 22 48 67 73 72 82 5.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 2,260 2,632 2,919 3,083 3,282 2.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 579 755 904 1,018 1,133 1,315 3.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 472 545 607 646 723 2.5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 283 359 411 488 592 4.4

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 468 638 795 1,001 1,259 4.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 22 35 53 82 126 9.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 91 129 154 183 207 6.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 303 354 474 587 735 926 4.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 430 497 563 641 724 3.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 171 241 335 399 475 5.3

Central and South America . . . . . . 144 199 243 285 325 369 3.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 27 36 46 56 62 5.0

Other Central and South America. . 126 172 206 239 269 307 3.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,533 2,021 2,523 2,995 3,498 4,141 3.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,231 4,282 5,155 5,914 6,581 7,423 3.3

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H10. World Net Coal-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,

2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix H

210 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,117 2,280 2,486 2,716 3,130 3,589 2.1

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,979 2,142 2,295 2,489 2,880 3,330 2.0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 84 123 144 149 152 1.7

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 54 68 84 101 107 3.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052 938 869 881 824 826 -0.9

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 682 686 691 719 743 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 276 264 251 247 245 0.1

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 214 228 232 242 255 2.0

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 194 192 194 207 230 244 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,756 3,900 4,041 4,287 4,673 5,159 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 316 392 455 498 516 554 2.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 189 192 215 225 241 1.3

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 203 263 283 292 313 3.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,365 3,377 4,381 5,334 6,252 7,229 4.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,658 2,423 3,122 3,835 4,554 5,317 4.6

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 627 777 894 1,021 1,174 3.6

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 241 327 482 605 677 737 4.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 42 48 50 52 54 2.0

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 310 383 464 527 566 3.6

Central and South America . . . . . . 26 54 70 79 82 87 4.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 26 39 42 43 47 7.2

Other Central and South America. . 18 27 31 37 39 40 3.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,966 4,174 5,337 6,424 7,428 8,491 4.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,723 8,074 9,378 10,711 12,102 13,650 2.8

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H11. World Net Nuclear Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country,

2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 211

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 883 910 936 1,012 1,015 1,033 0.6

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 789 789 812 885 886 896 0.5

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,220 2,257 2,335 2,406 2,438 2,526 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 056666 —

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5

Central and South America . . . . . . 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5

Other Central and South America. . 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,619 2,722 2,972 3,255 3,472 3,619 1.3

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Table H12. World Net Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Electricity Generation From Central Producers

by Region and Country, 2004-2030

(Billion Kilowatthours)

Appendix H

212 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Region/Country

History Projections Average Annual

Percent Change,

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2004-2030

OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 748 898 925 953 1,003 1,043 1.3

United Statesa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 469 487 495 512 522 1.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 394 401 420 452 481 1.3

Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 35 36 38 39 41 0.7

OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 626 791 819 848 878 909 1.4

OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 169 175 181 188 195 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 113 117 121 125 129 0.7

South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 6 6 7 7 7 0.7

Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 49 51 52 54 56 58 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,537 1,858 1,919 1,983 2,069 2,147 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 289 300 310 321 333 345 0.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 172 179 185 191 198 0.7

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 127 132 137 141 146 0.7

Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 624 688 768 850 934 2.0

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 348 393 434 479 529 1.8

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 95 107 128 144 159 2.2

Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 132 181 187 207 226 245 2.4

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 15 15 16 18 20 1.3

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 93 97 100 104 108 0.7

Central and South America . . . . . . 603 776 891 1,011 1,131 1,251 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 477 569 659 754 852 3.7

Other Central and South America. . 268 300 322 352 377 399 1.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,548 1,808 2,002 2,217 2,435 2,657 2.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,086 3,666 3,921 4,199 4,504 4,804 1.7

a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web

site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007),

AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the

Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).
Appendix I

Comparisons With International Energy Agency

and IEO2006 Projections

Comparisons with IEA’s

World Energy Outlook 2006

The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides projections comparable with those in IEO2007 in its World

Energy Outlook 2006. Because IEA releases projections

only for the years 2015 and 2030, two time periods are

compared here—2004 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030.

In the 2004 to 2015 projection period, both IEO2007 and

IEA expect world energy demand to increase by an average of 2.1 percent per year (Table I1). Not surprisingly,

both outlooks project much faster growth in energy

demand among the non-OECD nations than in the

OECD, with non-OECD energy use growing three times

as rapidly. There are, however, some regional differences. IEA’s expectations for demand growth in OECD

Asia, for instance, are much higher than those in

IEO2007, and the projected 1.4-percent annual growth

rate projected by IEA for the region exceeds the

1.3-percent rate in the IEO2007 high economic growth

case.

In the non-OECD regions, both outlooks have similar

projections for growth in Europe and Eurasia. IEO2007

projects 1.6-percent average annual growth in energy

use between 2004 and 2015, and IEA projects 1.4-percent

annual growth. IEA projects much slower growth than

IEO2007 over the 2004 to 2015 period for China and

other non-OECD Asia, as well as for Africa and Central

and South America. In each case, IEA’s projected growth

rates are lower than those in the IEO2007 low economic

growth case. On the other hand, IEA’s projected

4.2-percent annual growth in Middle Eastern energy use

over the same period is much higher than the projection

of 3.1 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case and,

in fact, exceeds the projected growth rate in the IEO2007

high macroeconomic growth case.

In the later years of the projections, IEO2007 and IEA

generally agree, with worldwide energy demand growing by 1.5 percent per year between 2015 and 2030 in the

IEO2007 reference case and by 1.3 percent per year in the

IEA projection (Table I2). Both outlooks anticipate similar regional growth over the 2015 to 2030 period. The

largest regional difference between the two projections—and the only instance in which IEA regional

growth projections fall outside the range defined by the

IEO2007 low and high macroeconomic growth cases—is

for China. IEA anticipates that China’s energy demand

growth will slow to 2.0 percent per year for the final 15

years of the outlook, whereas the IEO2007 reference case

expects that China will maintain a 2.7-percent annual

growth rate in energy demand through the end of the

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 213

Table I1. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2004-2015

(Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region

IEO2007

Low Growth Reference High Growth IEA

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.0

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.4

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.5 4.9 4.0

Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.8

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.4 4.2

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.1

Central and South America . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.
projection period. The IEA growth projection for energy

use in China from 2015 to 2030 is lower than the IEO2007

low macroeconomic growth case projection.

The projections vary not only with respect to levels of

total energy demand but also with respect to the mix of

primary energy inputs. In the 2004 to 2015 period, IEA

expects slightly higher growth in fossil fuel use and

slower growth in the use of non-fossil fuels than does

IEO2007 (Table I3). For both renewables and nuclear

power consumption, the growth rates projected by IEA

are slower than those in the IEO2007 low economic

growth case. For renewables, the differences may be

explained by the fact that IEA renewables projections

include estimates for traditional, non-marketed biomass

and the IEO2007 projections do not. Traditional biomass

is a substantial portion of the renewable energy base and

is not expected, in most regions, to expand as nations

migrate away from non-marketed to commercial energy

use over the projection period—in contrast to hydroelectric power and other marketed renewable energy

sources captured in the IEO2007 projection.

For nuclear power, there are only small differences in

projected growth rates between the IEO2007 high

macroeconomic growth and reference cases and no difference between the reference case and the low macroeconomic growth case. This is because the projections

include only a limited number of plants, which are

already planned or under construction, with expected

completion dates before 2015 that analysts largely agree

are achievable.

For the period from 2015 to 2030, IEO2007 and IEA are

largely in agreement. The only exception is nuclear

power, for which the IEA growth projection falls below

214 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Table I2. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2015-2030

(Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region

IEO2007

Low Growth Reference High Growth IEA

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.8

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.7

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.1 2.6 1.8

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.8

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.0

Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.1

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.1

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.8

Central and South America . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.3

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.

Table I3. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2004-2015

(Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel

IEO2007

Low Growth Reference High Growth IEA

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.5

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.7

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2

Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1

Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass.

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.
that in the IEO2007 low macroeconomic growth case

(Table I4). IEA projects that nuclear power expansion

will slow from the annual growth rate of 1.2 percent projected for relative to the 2004 to 2015 period to 0.4 percent for the 2015 to 2030 period. IEO2007 projects

increases in world nuclear power use averaging 1.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2030, compared with 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2015.

Comparisons With IEO2006

The IEO2007 outlook for total energy consumption in

2015 is largely the same as the outlook in IEO2006. In

IEO2007 total marketed energy consumption in 2015 is

projected to be 559 quadrillion Btu, as compared with

563 quadrillion Btu in IEO2006 (Table I5). There are,

however, some regional differences between the two

IEOs. In IEO2007, total energy consumption for the

OECD region in 2030 is about 5 quadrillion Btu lower

than was projected in IEO2006. Most (3 quadrillion Btu)

of the difference is attributed to lower demand in North

America (largely, the United States), where the projection for average annual GDP growth from 2003 to 2015 is

0.2 percentage points lower in IEO2007 than was projected in IEO2006.

For the non-OECD region, the largest differences

between the projections for 2015 in IEO2007 and IEO2006 are found in two regions—China and non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia. In IEO2007, China’s projected total

energy use in 2015 is 5 quadrillion Btu higher than projected in IEO2006. IEO2007 assumes much more rapid

economic growth for China between 2003 and 2015 than

was assumed in IEO2006—8.1 percent per year versus

7.0 percent per year. A 10-percent increase in China’s

GDP between 2003 and 2004 helped to spur a 20-percent

increase in its energy use, a development that was not

anticipated in the IEO2006 projection, which was based

on historical data series that ended in 2003.

For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, the IEO2007 reference case projects total energy consumption in 2015 that

is 4 quadrillion Btu lower than projected in IEO2006.

Nearly all of the difference resulted from a reassessment

of energy demand in the region’s industrial sector. For

example, in the IEO2006 reference case, demand for electric power in the industrial sector was projected to

increase by an average of 4.3 percent per year from 2003

to 2015; in IEO2007, the corresponding projection is for a

more moderate growth rate of 2.4 percent per year. EIA

believes that the lower rate is more consistent with the

annual increases seen in the region’s industrial electricity consumption since 1998 (when industrial sector electricity use stopped declining after the fall of the Soviet

Union and began to recover), which have averaged

about 2.5 percent per year.20

The near-term differences between the IEO2007 and

IEO2006 projections are carried through to 2030. The

IEO2007 reference case projection for total energy use

worlwide in 2030 is 20 quadrillion Btu (about 3 percent)

lower than the IEO2006 projection. Again, the largest

regional differences between the 2030 projections are for

China and non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In the

IEO2007 reference case, China’s GDP is projected to

increase at an average rate of 6.6 percent per year

between 2003 and 2030, 0.6 percentage points higher

than the GDP growth rate projected for China in

IEO2006. As a result, the reference case projection for

China’s total energy use in 2030 is 6 quadrillion Btu (5

percent) higher in IEO2007 than was projected in

IEO2006. For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, total projected energy consumption in 2030 is 7 quadrillion Btu

lower in IEO2007 than it was in IEO2006, largely as a

result of EIA’s reassessment of the potential for growth

in the industrial sector.

Along with regional differences between the IEO2007

and IEO2006 projections, there are some differences

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 215

Table I4. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2015-2030

(Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel

IEO2007

Low Growth Reference High Growth IEA

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.1

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 2.3 1.3

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.4

Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.3

Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass.

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.

20International Energy Agency, Energy Balances in Non-OECD Countries (Paris, France, 2006), web site http://data.iea.org.
between the two projections in the mix of energy

resources expected to be consumed (Table I6). The projections for worldwide consumption of petroleum and

other liquids consumption are virtually the same

throughout the projections, but there are pronounced

differences in the other fuel outlooks. In IEO2007, the

potential for nuclear power is viewed with more optimism than it was in IEO2006. As a result, the projection

for nuclear power consumption in 2015 is 5 percent

higher in IEO2007 than in IEO2006, and the difference

between the two projections increases to 14 percent in

2030.

With the higher projection for nuclear power in the

IEO2007 reference case, projections for consumption of

natural gas and renewables in the electric power sector

are lower throughout the period from 2004 to 2030. The

impact on renewable energy sources is larger: total

renewable energy use is 12 percent lower in 2015 and 14

percent lower in 2030 in the IEO2007 projections than in

IEO2006. The difference is somewhat inflated, however,

because consumption of biofuels in the IEO2007 projections is included with petroleum and other liquids consumption, whereas it was included with renewable

energy consumption in IEO2006. Removing the transportation biofuels portion of renewable energy consumption from the IEO2006 projections reduces the

difference to about 10 percent in both 2015 and 2030.

216 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

Table I5. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2006 Total World Energy Consumption, Reference Case,

2015 and 2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Region

2015 2030 Change in IEO2007

IEO2007 IEO2006 IEO2007 IEO2006 2015 2030

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 270 298 309 -5 -11

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 140 162 166 -3 -5

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 114 131 134 -2 -3

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 87 89 95 -1 -5

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 43 47 48 -1 -1

Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 293 404 413 1 -9

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 59 63 72 79 -3 -7

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 92 145 139 5 6

India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 23 32 33 -1 -1

Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 36 35 50 52 1 -2

Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 28 38 38 1 0

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 20 25 27 -1 -2

Central and South America . . . . 31 32 41 46 -1 -4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 563 702 722 -4 -20

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEO2006:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), Table A1, p. 83.

Table I6. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2006 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, Reference Case,

2015 and 2030

(Quadrillion Btu)

Fuel

2015 2030 Change in IEO2007

IEO2007 IEO2006 IEO2007 IEO2006 2015 2030

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 199 239 239 -2 0

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 140 170 190 -6 -19

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 144 199 196 7 4

Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 31 40 35 2 5

Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 48 53 61 -5 -8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 563 702 722 -4 -20

Sources: IEO2007: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEO2006:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), Table A2, pp. 84-85.
Appendix J

System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE)

Projections of world energy consumption and supply in

IEO2007 were generated using EIA’s SAGE model.

SAGE is used to project energy use in detail at the enduse sector level. It is an integrated set of regional models

that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating

regional energy consumption. For each region, reference

case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands

(e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel;

residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the

paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic

and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on

the basis of each region’s existing energy use patterns,

the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the

characteristics of available new technologies, as well as

new sources of primary energy supply.

Period-by-period market simulations aim to provide

each region’s energy services at minimum cost by simultaneously making end-use equipment and primary

energy supply decisions. For example, in SAGE, if there

is an increase in residential lighting energy service,

either existing generation equipment must be used more

intensively or new equipment must be installed. The

choice of generation equipment (type and fuel) incorporates analysis of both the characteristics of alternative

generation technologies and the economics of primary

energy supply.

SAGE produces projections for 16 regions or countries of

the world, including OECD North America as a whole

and the United States, Canada, and Mexico individually;

OECD Europe; OECD Asia and the countries of Japan,

South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand individually;

non-OECD Europe and Eurasia as a whole and Russia

individually; non-OECD Asia and China and India individually; and Central and South America as a whole and

Brazil individually. Projections of world oil prices over

the projection horizon are provided to the IEO2007 from

EIA’s AEO2007. All U.S. projections are taken from

AEO2007.

IEO2007 provides projections of total world marketed

energy consumption, as well as projections of energy

consumption by primary energy type (liquids, natural

gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric and other renewable resources) and projections of net electricity consumption. Projections of carbon dioxide emissions

resulting from fossil fuel use are also provided.

A new addition to this year’s report is the inclusion of

world oil price scenarios. The World Energy Projections

Plus (WEPS+) model is an enhancement to the SAGE

modeling system that was used to generate the high and

low world oil price cases that appear in IEO2007, as well

as the high and low macroeconomic growth cases.

WEPS+ is a microeconomic model, used primarily to

provide alternative energy projections under different

assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel prices. It

serves as a repository for reference case output generated from complex models that focus on specific supply

or demand series. The reference case reflects output

from those models and incorporates analysts’ judgment

on the potential for demand by end-use sector and fuel

type on a regional basis. Carbon dioxide emissions, electricity generation, and installed electricity generation

capacity also are projected within the WEPS+ system.

After the reference case is established, WEPS+ is used to

calculate coefficients for the response surface and save

them into a database. The reference case output tables

reflect the same information that is embedded in the

input tables. Alternative cases reflect changes in

assumptions about future economic growth (as measured in GDP) and prices. When an alternative case is

run, the model uses the previously calculated coefficients to produce new projections relative to changes in

GDP and energy prices and produces output tables that

reflect the changes.

The projections for world liquids production in IEO2007

reflect an expanded assessment of world oil supply,

using assumptions about additions to proved reserves,

the relationship between proved reserves and production, geopolitical constraints, and prices to generate

conventional crude oil production cases. Projections of

conventional liquids production for 2009 through 2015

are based on analysis of investment and development

trends around the globe. Projections of unconventional

liquids production are based on exogenous analysis.

Nine major streams of liquids production are tracked on

a volume basis: (1) crude oil and lease condensates, (2)

natural gas plant liquids, (3) refinery gains, (4) Canadian

oil sands, (5) ultra-heavy oils, (6) coal-to-liquids, (7)

gas-to-liquids, (8) shale oils, and (9) biofuels (tracked on

both a volume basis and an oil equivalent basis).

Biofuels are reported in terms of barrels of oil equivalent, unless otherwise stated.

A full description of the SAGE model is available in a

two-volume set. The first volume provides a general

understanding of the model’s design, theoretical basis,

necessary user-defined assumptions, and output. It also

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 217
lists the software necessary to develop and analyze the

results of SAGE-based policy and energy market scenarios. In addition, Volume I includes a Reference Guide,

which explains each equation in detail. The second volume serves as a User’s Guide for those actively developing SAGE-based scenario analyses. The documentation

is available on EIA’s web site in the model documentation section of “Current Publications” (http://www.

eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html). SAGE documentation is also available as part of the documentation for the

MARKAL family of models (http://www. etsap.org/

MRKLDOC-III_SAGE.pdf).

218 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007
Appendix K

Regional Definitions

The six basic country groupings used in this report

(Figure K1) are defined as follows:

•OECD (18 percent of the 2007 world population):

North America—United States, Canada, and

Mexico; OECD Europe—Austria, Belgium, Czech

Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,

Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal,

Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and

the United Kingdom. OECD Asia—Japan, South

Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

•Non-OECD (82 percent of the 2007 world population):

- Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (5 percent of

the 2007 world population)—Albania, Armenia,

Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,

Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta,

Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia,

Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and

Uzbekistan.

- Non-OECD Asia (53 percent of the 2007 world

population)—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,

Brunei, Cambodia (Kampuchea), China, Fiji,

French Polynesia, Guam, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau, Maldives,

Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru, Nepal, New

Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua

New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tonga,

Vanuatu, and Vietnam.

- Middle East (3 percent of the 2007 world population)—Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,

Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,

Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

- Africa (14 percent of the 2007 world population)—Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina

Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central

African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia,

Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya,

Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 219

Key

Africa

OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Non-OECD Asia

Middle East

Central and South America

Figure K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique,

Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao

Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra

Leone, Somalia, South Africa, St. Helena, Sudan,

Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda,

Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

- Central and South America (7 percent of the 2007

world population)—Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahama Islands, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, British Virgin Islands,

Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,

Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El

Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti,

Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama Republic, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia,

St. Vincent/Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and

Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, U.S.

Virgin Islands, and Venezuela.

In addition, the following commonly used country

groupings are referenced in this report:

•Countries that have ratified, accepted, acceded, or

approved the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on

Greenhouse Gas Emissions as of April 17, 2007:

Albania, Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina,

Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain,

Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize,

Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,

Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi,

Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Chile,

China, Colombia, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo

(Kinshasa), Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Cyprus,

Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica,

Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador,

Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji,

Finland, France, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany,

Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea,

Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary,

Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy,

Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait,

Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia,

Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg,

Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania,

Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Monaco, Moldova,

Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar,

Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand,

Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, North Korea,

Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua

New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland,

Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint

Lucia, Samoa, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles,

Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri

Lanka, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname,

Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania,

Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab

Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan,

Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zambia.

•Annex I Countries participating in the Kyoto

Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia,

Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, European Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,

Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,

Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.21

•European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,

Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy,

Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

•G8: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia,

United Kingdom, and the United States.

•North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Member Countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United

States.

•Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD): Australia, Austria, Belgium,

Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France,

Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,

Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New

Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South

Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the

United Kingdom, and the United States.

•Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC): Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq,

Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the

United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

•Pacific Rim Developing Countries: Hong Kong,

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South

Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

•Persian Gulf Countries: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,

Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab

Emirates.

220 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

21Turkey is an Annex I nation that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable

emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol, and in 2002 Australia announced that it

will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol unless the United States does.