### DOE/EIA-0484(2007)



# International Energy Outlook 2007

May 2007

Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. 

## This publication is on the WEB at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

# Contacts

The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener

gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), or Glen E. Sweetnam, Director, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division (glen.sweetnam@eia. doe.gov, 202-586-2188). Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202-586- 1041) or the following analysts:
World Energy and Economic Outlook. . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions. . . . . . Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) World GDP: Potential Impacts of High and Low Oil Prices . . . . . . . . Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector: Transportation Energy Use . . . . . . . . Bhima Sastri (bhima.sastri@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2854) China’s Transportation Sector. . . . . . Randal Cook (randall.cook@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1395) Barry Kapilow-Cohen (bcohen@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-5359) Residential Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791) Industrial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . Brian Unruh (brian.unruh@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1344) World Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Staub (john.staub@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-6344) Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico . . . . . . . . . . Lauren Mayne (lauren.mayne@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-3005) Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Justine Barden (justine.barden@eia.doe.gov 202-586-3508) Phyllis Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-9592) Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2136) Diane Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2415) Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Perry Lindstrom (perry.lindstrom@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-0934)

ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007



### Electronic Access and Related Reports

IEO2007 will be available on the EIA Home Page (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html ) by July 2007, including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the entire publication in Portable Document Format (PDF), go to http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2007).pdf. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows: National Energy Information Center, EI-30 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202/586-8800 E-mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov TTY: For people who are deaf World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov or hard of hearing: 202/586-1181 Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., eastern time, M-F FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov

# Contents
Page

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 iii 

### Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. World Energy and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Outlook for World Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Alternative World Oil Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Trends in Energy Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Transportation Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Residential Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Commercial Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3. Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 World Liquids Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 World Oil Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 World Liquids Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Oil Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

4. Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 World Natural Gas Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 World Natural Gas Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5. Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 World Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 World Coal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 World Coal Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 World Coal Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 6. Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Electricity Supply by Energy Source . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Regional Electricity Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 7. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Alternative World Oil Price Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

### Appendixes

Tables

Figures

iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1980-2030. . . 10 3. World Oil Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 4. World Oil Reserves: Ten Largest Gains and Losses, 2000-2007, by Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 5. World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production and Reserve-To-Production Ratios by Country, 2005. . . . 38 6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 7. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 8. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 9. World Coal Production by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 10. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2005, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 12. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 A. Reference Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 D. High World Oil Price Case Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 E. Low World Oil Price Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 F. Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 G. Projections of Petroleum and Other Liquids Production in Three Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 H. Reference Case Projections for Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 99 I. Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2006 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 J. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 K. Regional Definitions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Average Annual Growth in Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and End-Use Sector, 2004-2030. . . . . . 1 3. Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 5. World Liquids Production, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 9. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 10. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 11. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 12. World Coal Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 13. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 14. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 15. Comparison of IEO2006 and IEO2007 Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and World GDP Growth Rates, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 16. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 17. World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 18. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 19. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 20. World Liquids Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 21. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 22. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 23. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies of Europe and Eurasia, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 24. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 25. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 26. OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

### Figures (Continued)

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 v 

### 27. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . 24 28. OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 29. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . 25 30. OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 31. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . 27 32. World Unconventional Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 33. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 34. World Liquids Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 35. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 36. OPEC and Non-OPEC Conventional and Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 37. Cumulative World Production of Crude Oil and Lease Condensates in the Reference Case, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . 35 38. World Crude Oil Reserves, 1980-2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 39. World Proved Oil Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 40. World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 41. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 42. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, 1980-2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 43. World Natural Gas Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 44. World Natural Gas Resources by Geographic Region, 2006-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 45. World Natural Gas Production by Region, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 46. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 47. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 48. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Europe, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 49. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia by Country, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 50. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 51. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 52. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, Africa, and the Middle East, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . 47 53. Export Share of Natural Gas Production in the Middle East and Africa, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 54. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 55. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 56. OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 57. Non-OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 58. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 59. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 60. World Electric Power Generation, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 61. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 62. Average Annual Change in End-Use Sector Electricity Demand, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 63. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 64. Annual Growth in Electricity Generation by Region, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 65. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 66. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 67. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Europe by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 68. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 69. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 70. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 71. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 72. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 73. Net Electricity Generation in the Middle East by Fuel, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 74. Net Electricity Generation in Africa by Fuel, 2004 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 75. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America, 2004-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 76. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 77. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 78. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 79. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the OECD Economies, 2004-2030 . . 75 80. Average Annual Growth in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Non-OECD Economies, 2004-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

### Figures (Continued)

vi Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007



### 83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Combustion by Region, 1990-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 84. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Region, 1990-2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 85. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2004 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 88. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

# Preface

This report presents international energy projections through 2030, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.

The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Admin

istration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was pre

pared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2007 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associa

tions, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Orga

nization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). Projections in IEO2007 are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD). There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico); OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea,and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions). Non-OECD is divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. Russia is represented in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and India are represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is repre

sented in Central and South America.

IEO2007 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2007 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on January 1, 2007. The potential impacts of pending or pro

posed legislation, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legis

lation for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assump

tions used in deriving the IEO2007 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2004, and the projections extend to 2030. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross domestic product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. New to this report, IEO2007 also includes a high world oil price case and, alternatively, a low world oil price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy and Economic Outlook.” Regional projections of end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transporta

tion sectors are presented in Chapter 2, which also reviews worldwide forecasts for end-use sector energy consumption. Regional projections for energy consump

tion by fuel—liquids (primarily petroleum), natural gas, and coal—are presented in Chapters 3, 4, and 5, along

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 vii 

### Objectives of the IEO2007 Projections The projections in IEO2007 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used. The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The projections are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures, and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and can

not be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource availability are necessarily uncertain.

### with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 6 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—and presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses the outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions.
Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2007 reference case projections of world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide emis

sions, and regional population growth. Summary tables of projections for the high and low economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B and C, respectively, and high and low world oil price projections are provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Refer

ence case projections of delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and region are presented in Appendix F. Appendix G contains summary tables of projections for world liquids production in all cases. Appendix H contains summary tables of reference case projections for installed electric power capacity by fuel and regional electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set of comparisons of projections from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2006 with the IEO2007 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections are also presented in Appendix I. Appendix J describes the models used to generate the IEO2007 projections, and Appendix K defines the regional designations included in the report.

viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

# List of Acronyms

AEO2007 Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Btu British thermal unit CAFE corporate average fuel economy EIA Energy Information Administration EU European Union GDP gross domestic product IEA International Energy Agency IEO2007 International Energy Outlook 2007 LNG liquefied natural gas MY model year NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NEMS National Energy Modeling System NHDP National Highways Development Project (India) OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Pemex Petróleos Mexicanos r/p reserve-to-production ratio SAGE System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets SEC Securities and Exchange Commission (U.S.) STEO Short-Term Energy Outlook

UAE United Arab Emirates USGS U.S. Geological Survey WEPS+ World Energy Projections Plus WPPI Wind Power Production Incentive (Canada)

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 ix

# Highlights

World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 95 percent, compared with an increase of 24 percent in the OECD countries.

In the IEO2007 reference case—which reflects a scenario where current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period—world marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent over the 2004 to 2030 period. Total world energy use rises from 447 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2004 to 559 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 702 qua

drillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 1). Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices that are projected to persist into the mid-term outlook. The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2004 to 2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD nations). Total non-OECD energy demand increases by 95 percent in the IEO2007 reference case projection, as compared with an increase of 24 percent in OECD energy use. The robust growth in demand among thenon-OECD nations is largely the result of strong projected economic growth. In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP inpurchasing power parity terms—increases by 5.3 percent per year on average, as compared with an average of 2.5 percent per year for the OECD economies. Trends in end-use sector energy consumption can vary widely, according to the level and pace of economic development in a given region. In the OECD region, where energy markets generally are well established, demand for delivered energy in each of the end-use sec

tors grows more slowly than in the non-OECD nations (Figure 2). For the industrial sector, energy-intensive industries continue to expand more rapidly in the non-OECD countries, where investors are attracted by lower costs and fewer environmental constraints, than in the OECD countries. In 1980, the OECD accounted for 52 percent of the world’s industrial sector energy use. In 2004 the OECD share had fallen to 44 percent, and it is projected to decline to 33 percent in 2030, as non-OECD industrial energy use outpaces that in the OECD (Figure 3). For the OECD countries, industrial sector energy use is projected to grow at an average rate of 0.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2030; for the non-OECD countries, the projected increase averages 2.5 percent per year. As in the industrial sector, energy use in the buildings and transportation sectors is projected to grow more slowly in the OECD countries than in the non-OECD countries in the IEO2007 reference case. With slow or declining population growth in many OECD nations,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1 447 511 559 607 654 702

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 200 400 600 800 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). OECD Non-OECD

01234
Percent p er Year Transportation Industrial Residential Commercial 

### Figure 2. Average Annual Growth in Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and End-Use Sector, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### generally slow growth in energy use in the buildings sectors is projected, averaging 0.6 percent per year in the residential sector and 1.1 percent per year in the com

mercial sector from 2004 to 2030. For the non-OECD region as a whole, strong growth in demand for energy is projected in the buildings sectors, averaging 2.4 per

cent per year in the residential sector and 3.7 percent per year in the commercial sector. Historically, growth in transportation activity has been linked closely to income growth, indicating a strong relationship between per-capita GDP and passenger car travel per capita, especially in countries with developing economies. With robust economic growth projected for the developing non-OECD nations, transportation sec

tor energy use increases by an average of 2.9 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, requiring extensive investment in the construction of transportation infrastructure (highways, fueling stations, airport facilities, rail sys

tems, etc.) to support the fast-paced growth in demand. In the OECD countries, where extensive infrastructure is in place already and GDP is projected to grow much more slowly, demand for transportation fuels increases by 0.9 percent per year.

The IEO2007 reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all sources over the 2004 to 2030 projection period (Figure 4). Fossil fuels (petroleum and other liquid fuels, 1 

### natural gas, and coal) are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Liquids supply the largest share of world energy consumption over the projection period, but their share falls from 38 percent in 2004 to 34 percent in 2030, largely in response to a reference case scenario in which real world oil prices remain near the current level through 2030. Liquids remain the dominant energy source, given their importance in the transportation and industrial end-use sectors; however, their share of the world energy market in this year’s outlook is lessened in the projection, as other fuels replace liquids where possi

ble outside those sectors. Fossil fuel prices in the refer

ence case also support renewed interest in expanding the use of nuclear power and renewable energy sources to generate electricity. World use of petroleum and other liquids grows from 83 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 mil

lion barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case. 2 

### In most regions of the world, the role of liquid fuels outside the transportation sector continues to erode. Liquids remain the most important fuels for transportation, because there are fewalternatives that can compete widely with petroleum-based liquid fuels. On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the totalprojected increase in liquids use from 2004 to 2030, followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for another 27 percent of the increase.

2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 72 74 76 79 82 85 91 109 125 141 156 172

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 50 100 150 200 Quadrillion Btu
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 3. Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 Quadrillion Btu History Projections

Liquids

Natural Gas Coal

Renewables

Nuclear 

### Figure 4. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1 Petroleum and other liquid fuels include petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas liquids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen. 2 Throughout this report, liquids energy use is reported on a barrel equivalent basis, rather than a volumetric basis, because of the inclu

sion of biofuels (specifically, ethanol) in the liquids total. Ethanol is only two-thirds as efficient as petroleum-based motor gasoline.

### To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the reference case, total supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day. Conventional liquids produc

tion by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contributes about 21 mil

lion barrels per day to the total increase, and conven

tional liquids production in non-OPEC countries adds another 6 million barrels per day (Figure 5). Unconven

tional resources (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive. World production of unconventional resources, which totaled only 2.6 million barrels per day in 2004, is projected to increase to 10.5 million barrels per day and account for 9 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030, on an oil equivalent basis, in the IEO2007 reference case. Natural gas consumption increases on average by 1.9 percent per year in the reference case, from a world total of 99.6 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 129.0 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 163.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Rising world oil prices after 2015 increase the demand for—and then the price of—natural gas, as it is used to displace the use of liquids in the industrial and electric power sectors. Although natural gas prices vary by region, they tend to rise as demand increases. Higher natural gas prices, in turn, make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector. Among the end-use sectors, the industrial sector remains the largest consumer of natural gas worldwide, accounting for 43 percent of the world’s total projected natural gas consumption in 2030. Coal is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide in the IEO2007 reference case projections. World coal con

sumption is projected to increase from 114.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 199.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030, at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. World coal consumption increased sharply from 2003 to 2004, largely because of a 17-percent increase on a Btu basis in non-OECD Asia (mainly, China and India). Coal’s share of total world energy use is projected to increase from 26 percent in 2004 to 28 percent in 2030. The electric power sector accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption throughout the projec

tion period, and the industrial sector accounts for most of the remainder. China’s industrial sector is projected to account for about 78 percent of the total net increase in industrial coal use worldwide. China has abundant coal resources, limited reserves of oil and natural gas, and a leading position in world steel production. World net electricity generation grows by 85 percent in the IEO2007 reference case, from 16,424 billion kilo

watthours in 2004 to 22,289 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 30,364 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Most of theprojected increase in electricity demand is in the nonOECD nations, where electricity generation increases on average by 3.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, as compared with 1.3 percent per year in the OECD nations. Coal and natural gas remain the most important fuels for electricity generation throughout the projection period, together accounting for 80 percent of the total increment in world electric power generation from 2004 to 2030 in the reference case (Figure 6). Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to increase from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 3,619 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 3 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 25 50 75 100 125 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day

Total

OPEC Conventional Non-OPEC Conventional

Unconventional 

### Figure 5. World Liquids Production, 2004-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 40 Trillion Kilowatthours

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 

### Figure 6. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for new nuclear power capacity in many parts of the world, and a number of countries are expected to build new nuclear power plants. In the IEO2007 reference case, the world’s installed nuclear capacity grows from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 giga

watts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (includ

ing Germany and Belgium) have either plans or man

dates to phase out nuclear power, and where some older reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced. Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to increase by 4.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is expected in non-OECD Asia, where annual increases in nuclear capacity average 6.3 percent and account for 68 percent of the total projected increase in nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD region as a whole. Of the 58 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD Asia between 2004 and 2030, 36 gigawatts is projected for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia also is expected to add substantial nuclear generating capacity over the mid-term projection, increasing capacity by 20 gigawatts. The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewable energy sources is expected to continue toexpand over the projection period, increasing by 1.9 percent per year, at the same rate of growth as natural gas consumption in the reference case. Higher fossil fuel prices, particularly for natural gas in the electric power sector, allow renewable energy sources to compete eco

nomically in some areas. Where they are not economi

cally competitive with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources may be supported by government policies and incentives. The renewables share of total world energy consumption is expected to rise from 7 percent in 2004 to 8 percent in 2030. Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South America, where several countries have hydropower facilities either planned or under construction. Outside of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is not expected to grow substantially in the OECD nations, because most hydroelectric resources in the region already have been developed or lie far from population centers. Instead, most of the increase in OECD renew

able energy consumption is expected to be in the form of nonhydroelectric resources, such as wind, solar, geo

thermal, municipal solid waste, and biomass. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide—one of the most important greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—have been increasing at a rate of about0.5 percent annually. Because anthropogenic (humancaused) emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, energy use has emerged at the center of the climate change debate. World carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase steadily in the IEO2007 reference case, from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030, an increase of 59 percent over the projection period.
From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, largelybecause of a 17-percent increase in coal use in nonOECD Asia, while emissions from the OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent. The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time in history that energy-related carbon diox

ide emissions from the non-OECD countries exceeded those from the OECD countries—although by only about 8 million metric tons (Figure 7). Further, because the projected average annual increase in emissions from 2004 to 2030 in the non-OECD countries (2.6 percent) is more than three times the increase projected for the OECD countries (0.8 percent), carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030, at 26.2 billion metric tons, are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.

4 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 13 13 14 15 15 16 17

12 13 17 19 22 24 26

2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 Billion Metric Tons
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 7. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030

Sources: 2003 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Chapter 1 

# World Energy and Economic Outlook

In the IEO2007 reference case, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030. The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD region.

The IEO2007 reference case—which reflects a scenario where current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period—projects strong growth for worldwide energy demand from 2004 to 2030. Total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase from 447 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 559 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 702 quadrillion Btu in 2030—a 57-percent increase over the projection period (Table 1 and Figure 8). The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD region. Generally, countries outside the OECD 3 

### have higher projected economic growth rates and more rapid population growth than the OECD nations. In the IEO2007 reference case, energy consumption in the non-OECD region is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent from 2004 through 2030. In the OECD region, where national economies are more mature and population growth is expected to be relatively slower, energy use is projected to grow at the much slower average rate of 0.8 percent per year over

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 5 

### Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu)

Region 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Annual Percent Change, 2003-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3 Central and South America . . . . 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 283 309 347 366 400 447 511 559 607 654 702

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 200 400 600 800 Quadrillion Btu History Projections 

### Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

3 For consistency, OECD includes all members of the organization as of February 1, 2007, throughout all the time series presented in this publication.

### the projection period. Energy use in the non-OECD region is projected to surpass that in the OECD region by 2010, and to be 35 percent greater than the non-OECD total in 2030 (Figure 9). Much of the growth in energy demand among the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India. Energy demand in the non-OECD Asia region is projected to grow at an aver

age rate of 3.2 percent per year, more than doubling over the 2004 to 2030 period and accounting for more than 65 percent of the increase in energy use for the non-OECD region as a whole. In 2004, energy consumption in the countries of non-OECD Asia made up just over 48 per

cent of the non-OECD total; in 2030, its share is projected to be above 56 percent (Figure 10). Strong growth in energy demand is also projected for the other non-OECD regions. In the reference case pro

jections, energy consumption increases at average annual rates of 2.4 percent in Central and South Amer

ica, 2.3 percent in the Middle East and in Africa, and 1.4 percent in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. This chapter presents an overview of the IEO2007 outlook for energy consumption by primary energy source and a look at the major assumptions that form the basis for the projections that appear in the report. It includes a discussion of the IEO2007 macroeconomic forecast in the context of the key OECD and non-OECD regions.As with any set of projections, there is significant uncertainty associated with the IEO2007 energy projections. This chapter includes discussion of two sets of sensitiv

ity cases, which vary some of the assumptions behind the IEO2007 projections: high and low macroeconomic growth cases and high and low world oil price cases. These cases are intended to illustrate alternative scenar

ios rather than to identify any bounds on uncertainty, which can be affected by policy and technology develop

ments, as well as price and growth paths. Also included is a discussion of the possible effects of future trends in energy intensity (the relationship between energy use and economic growth) on the reference case projections. 

# Outlook for World Energy Consumption

The IEO2007 reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all sources over the 2004 to 2030 period. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the increment in marketed energy use world

wide throughout the projections. Liquids (primarily, oil and other petroleum products) are expected to continue to provide the largest share of world energy consump

tion over the projection period, but their share falls from 38 percent in 2004 to 34 percent in 2030 (Figure 11), largely because rising world oil prices dampen the demand for liquids after 2015. Worldwide liquids consumption is projected to increasefrom 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 97 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in2030. Liquids remain the most important fuels for transportation, because there are few alternatives that can beexpected to compete widely with petroleum-based liquids; however, the role of oil outside the transportation sector continues to be eroded because of high world oil prices in most regions of the world. On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the total projected increase in liquids use between 2004 and 2030,

6 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 9. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 150 168 207 257 332 404

1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 Quadrillion Btu

Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa Central and South America Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia History Projections 

### Figure 10. Marketed Energy Use in the Non-OECD Economies by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for another 27 percent of the increment in world liquids demand. Natural gas consumption increases by 1.9 percent per year on average over the projection period, from about 100 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 163 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Rising world oil prices increase the demand for natural gas, as it is used to displace the use of liquids in the industrial and electric power sectors in many parts of the world. Industrial uses throughout the world are pro

jected to make up 43 percent of total natural gas use in 2030. In addition, natural gas is both a more efficient fuel for electric power generation and less carbon intensive than other fossil fuels, and as a result it is an attractive energy source for the world’s power generation. It is the world’s fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation in the IEO2007 reference case projection, leading to an increase in the electric power sector share of total natural gas use worldwide, from 31 percent in 2004 to 36 percent in 2030. Natural gas prices are likely to vary from region to region, depending on the size of available resources and their distance from end-use markets. In the United States, dependence on relatively expensive domestic supplies of unconventional natural gas and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase over the projection period, and projected prices in the U.S. market thus tend to be at the high end of the range. In Russia and the Middle East, where domestic resources of conventional natural gas are both abundant and readily accessible, natural gas prices are among the low

est in the world. World coal consumption increased sharply from 2003 to 2004, largely because of a 17-percent increase on a Btu basis in non-OECD Asia (China and India). As a result, coal’s share of total world energy use climbed from 25 percent in 2003 to 26 percent in 2004. With oil and natural gas prices expected to continue rising, coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample coal resources—notwithstanding government policies aimed at reducing coal use—and its share of world energy consumption is projected to increase further, to 28 percent in 2030. In the IEO2007 reference case projec

tion, coal use worldwide increases by 37 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2015 and by another 48 quadrillion Btu from 2015 to 2030. In particular, the United States, China, and India are well-positioned to displace more expensive fuels with coal, and together the three nations account for 86 percent of the expected increase from 2004 to 2030 (Figure 12). Decreases in coal consumption are projected only for OECD Europe and Japan, where population growth is slow or declining, electricity demand growth is slow, and natural gas and nuclear power are likely to continue providing significant amounts of electricity. Worldwide, electricity generation in 2030 is projected to total 30,364 billion kilowatthours, nearly double the 2004 total of 16,424 billion kilowatthours. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD region, averaging 3.5 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case (Figure 13). Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration and to support the

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 7 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 Quadrillion Btu History Projections

Liquids

Natural Gas Coal

Renewables

Nuclear 

### Figure 11. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 Quadrillion Btu

China United States India Rest of World 

### Figure 12. World Coal Consumption by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### expansion of commercial services, including hospitals, office buildings, and shopping malls. In the OECD nations, where infrastructures are well established and population growth is slower, electricity generation is expected to grow by 1.3 percent per year on average over the projection period. Natural gas and coal are projected to provide larger shares of the total energy used for electricity generation worldwide in 2030 than they did in 2004. The natural gas share increases from 20 percent to 24 percent and the coal share from 41 percent to 45 percent. The relative environmental benefits and efficiency of natural gas make it an attractive fuel choice for generation in many nations; however, higher oil and natural gas prices makecoal the economic choice in the United States and nonOECD Asia, where coal resources are ample. Electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to increase from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,972 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3,619 billion kilo

watthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for new nuclear power capacity in many parts of the world. In the IEO2007 reference case, the world’s total installed nuclear capacity rises from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only for OECD Europe, where several countries have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and some older reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced. Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to increase by 4.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is projected for non-OECD Asia, which accounts for 68 percent of the total projected increase in nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD region as a whole (Figure 14). Of the 58 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD Asia between 2004 and 2030, 36 gigawatts is projected for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia also is expected to add substantial nuclear generating capacity over the mid-term projection, increasing capac

ity by 20 gigawatts. Several OECD nations with existing nuclear programs also increase their nuclear capacity in the IEO2007 reference case, with South Korea adding a net 16 gigawatts, Japan 14 gigawatts, the United States 13 gigawatts, and Canada 6 gigawatts. The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewable energy sources is expected to continue to expand over the projection period, increasing by 1.9 per

cent per year, at the same rate of growth as natural gas consumption in the reference case. Higher fossil fuel prices, particularly for natural gas in the electric power sector, along with government policies and programs to support renewable energy, allow renewable fuels to compete economically. The renewable share of total world energy use increases from 7 percent in 2004 to 8 percent in 2030. Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South America, where several countries have hydropowerfacilities either planned or under construction. In nonOECD Asia, India has about 12,020 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity under construction, and letters of award have been issued for the 1,000-megawatt Tehri Pass project (scheduled for completion by 2012) and the

8 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Billion Kilowatthours History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD 

### Figure 13. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 112

134

61

15

42

5 131

114

92

72

65

8 OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

Non-OECD Asia
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Other Non-OECD

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Gi g awatts 2004 2030 

### Figure 14. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### 1,200-megawatt Kotlibhel-IA project [ 1 ]. China also has a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects under construction, including the 18,200-megawatt Three Gorges Dam project (expected to be fully operational by 2009) and the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River (scheduled for completion in 2020, as part of a 14-facility hydropower development plan) [ 2 ]. In the non-OECD region of Central and South America, Brazil has plans for a number of new hydropower projects that the country hopes to complete to keep up with electricity demand after 2010, including the 3,150-megawatt Santo Antonio and 3,300-megawatt Jirau projects on the Madeira River [ 3 ]. Outside of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is not expected to grow substantially in the OECD nations, because most hydroelectric resources in the region already have been developed or lie far from population centers. Instead, most of the increase in OECD renew

able energy consumption is expected to be in the form of nonhydroelectric resources, such as wind, solar, geo

thermal, municipal solid waste, and biomass. 

# World Economic Outlook Economic growth is among the most important factors to be considered in projecting changes in the world’s energy consumption. In the IEO2007 projections,assumptions about regional economic growth—measured in terms of GDP in real 2000 U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity rates—underlie the projections of regional energy demand. The macroeconomic framework employed for the eco

nomic growth projections reflects the interaction of many important economic variables and underlying relationships, both in the short term and in the medium to long term. In the short term, households and busi

nesses make spending decisions (the demand side) based on current financial conditions—for example, interest rates or the price of goods to be purchased. In the long term, it is the ability to produce goods and services (the supply side) that ultimately determines the growth potential for any country’s economy. Growth potential is influenced by population growth, labor force participation rates, productivity growth, and capital accumulation. In addition, for the developing econo

mies, progress in building human and physical capital infrastructures, establishing credible regulatory mecha

nisms to govern markets, and ensuring political stability play more important roles in determining their medium- to long-term growth potential. Over the 2004 to 2030 period, world real GDP growth is projected to average 4.1 percent annually in the refer

ence case (Table 2 and Figure 15). When compared with the IEO2006 reference case projection, the world eco

nomic growth projection in the IEO2007 reference case is higher primarily because of more optimistic assumptions about the growth prospects of non-OECD countries, particularly, China and India. The projected annual growth in world GDP over the next 25 years is higher than the rate recorded over the past 25 years, mainly because the countries that are expected to see more rapid growth make up an increas

ing share of world GDP. A number of the developing non-OECD nations have undertaken significant reforms over the past several years. Improved macroeconomic policies, trade liberalization, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and lower fiscal deficits have lowered their national inflation rates, reduced uncertainty, and improved their overall investment climates. More microeconomic structural reforms, such as privatization and regulatory reform, have also played key roles. In general, such reforms have resulted in growth rates that are above historical trends in many of the emerging economies over the past 5 to 10 years.

OECD Economies In the United States, compared with the second half of the 1990s, GDP growth rates were lower from 2000 to 2002 but rebounded to 2.5 percent in 2003, 3.9 percent in2004, and 3.2 percent in 2005. GDP growth in 2006 is estimated at 3.3 percent. A downturn in the housing sector has been the major source of weakening over the past year, and reductions in manufacturing output indicate that the slowdown has spread throughout the economy. At the same time, however, corporate finances have been healthy, and real nonresidential investment has remained robust. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 9 OECD Non-OECD World 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Average Annual Percent Change IEO2006 IEO2007

2.5% 2.5% 4.9% 5.3%

3.8% 4.1% 

### Figure 15. Comparison of IEO2006 and IEO2007 Projections for OECD, Non-OECD, and World GDP Growth Rates, 2004-2030

Sources: IEO2006 : Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006 , DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ ieo. IEO2007 : Derived from Global Insight, Inc., World Over

view , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007).

### against other major currencies has also boosted demand for domestic output. In the reference case projections, the U.S. economy stabi

lizes at its long-term growth path by 2010. GDP is pro

jected to grow by an average of 2.9 percent per year from 2004 to 2030—slower than the 3.1-percent annual aver

age over the 1980 to 2004 period—because of the retire

ment of the baby boom generation and the resultant slowing of labor force growth. Canada’s labor force growth is projected to slow in the medium to long term, however, as baby boomers retire. The country’s overall economic growth is projected to fall from the current average of 2.9 percent per year to averages of 2.6 percent per year from 2007 to 2015 and 2.1 percent per year from 2015 to 2030. In Mexico, real GDP is projected to grow by an average of 3.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Mexico’s strong performance in the past 5 years has been the result of favorable developments in several areas. First, lower inflation has allowed the central bank to lower key policy rates, which has encouraged domestic demand through greater investment. Second, high oil prices continue to spur government spending, including investment in infrastructure projects. Third, remittances from Mexicans working abroad continue to grow

10 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Table 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1980-2030 (Percent per Year)

Region History Projections 1980-2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007-2015 2015-2030 2004-2030
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.9 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.3 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.2 3.0 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.9

Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.7 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 4.7 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.6 2.7 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 0.0 8.2 6.6 7.1 6.6 4.7 3.5 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.4 7.2 6.4 6.4 5.7 4.1 3.1 3.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 9.5 7.0 8.1 7.7 5.5 4.0 4.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.0 6.3 5.1 5.8

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.5 9.5 7.2 5.4 6.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.5 8.7 7.9 7.6 5.9 5.0 5.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 6.5 5.9 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.3 4.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 5.2 4.5 3.8 4.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.9
Central and South America . . . . . . 2.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 4.9 2.3 3.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 7.9 7.3 7.5 7.0 5.7 4.7 5.3

Total World

Purchasing Power Parity Rates . . 3.3 5.4 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.2 3.8 4.1 Market Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . 2.9 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.1 Note: All regional real GDP growth rates presented in this table are based on 2000 purchasing power parity weights for the individual countries in each region, except for the final line of the table, which presents world GDP growth rates based on 2000 market exchange rate weights for all countries.

Sources: Historical Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projected GDP Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007). GDP growth rates for China and India were adjusted downward, based on the analyst’s judgment.

### rapidly, boosting domestic consumption. Finally, Mex

ico’s industrial production follows, and is heavily influ

enced by, U.S. GDP growth and outsourcing of employment. Global financial markets remain friendly to Mexico in terms of the availability and cost of credit and the volume of foreign direct investment. In general, strong trade ties with the United States are expected to help cushion Mexico from deeper economic troubles. By the same token, Mexico’s future growth is also more dependent on U.S. growth. Over the long term, OECD Europe’s GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 in the ref

erence case, in line with what OECD considers to be potential output growth in the region’s economies [ 4 ]. According to the International Monetary Fund, struc

tural impediments to economic growth still remain in many countries of OECD Europe, related to the region’s labor markets, product markets, and costly social wel

fare systems. Reforms to improve the competitiveness of European labor and product markets could yield signifi

cant dividends in terms of increases in regional output [ 5 ].After a decade of stagnation and several false starts, economic growth in Japan has been more robust since 2003. While low by the standards of pre-1990 Japan, the recent growth in GDP exceeds the potential (no more than 2 percent real growth) for a country with a declining labor force and population and an industrial technology thathas already caught up with, and in some cases surpassed, the best elsewhere in the world [ 6 ]. With the continued decline in its labor force over the projection period, Japan’s annual GDP growth is projected to slow, averaging 1.4 percent from 2007 to 2015 and 0.7 percent from 2015 to 2030. In the short term, Japan’s highly skilled labor force and strong work ethic are expected to support the projected average growth rate of 1.4 percent per year, as more flexible labor policies allowing greater mobility for workers are adopted. Economic growth in the rest of OECD Asia is expected to be somewhat stronger than in Japan. In the medium to long term, South Korea’s growth is projected to taper off and be sustained by productivity growth as labor force growth slows. Prospects in both Australia and New Zea

land are healthy, given their consistent track records of fiscal prudence and structural reforms aimed at main

taining competitive product markets and flexible labor markets.

Non-OECD Economies Over the 2004 to 2030 period, economic growth in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia as a whole is projected to average 4.3 percent annually. For the past several years, the non-OECD nations of Europe and Eurasia have largely been sheltered from global economic uncer

tainties, recording strong economic growth in each year since 2000, primarily as a result of robust domestic demand, the growth bonus associated with ascension of some countries (including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovenia) to the European Union, and the impacts of rising oil prices on the oil-exporting nations of the region (including Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turk

menistan). High world oil prices have stimulated invest

ment outlays, especially in the energy sector of the Caspian region; however, given the volatility of energy market prices, it is unlikely that the region’s economies will be able to sustain the growth rates recently achieved until diversification from energy becomes more broadly based. The long-term growth prospects for the former Soviet Republic economies of Eurasia hinge on their success in economic diversification, as well as further improvements in domestic product and financial markets. Much of the growth in world economic activity between 2004 and 2030 is expected to occur among the nations of non-OECD Asia, where regional GDP growth is pro

jected to average 5.8 percent per year. China, non-OECD Asia’s largest economy, is expected to continue playing a major role on both the supply and demand sides of the global economy. IEO2007 projects an average annual growth rate of approximately 6.5 percent for China’s economy over the 2004 to 2030 period. The country’s economic growth is expected to be the highest in the world. Structural issues that have implications for medium- to long-term growth in China include the pace of reform affecting inefficient state-owned companies and a bank

ing system that is carrying a significant amount of nonperforming loans. The development of domestic capital markets to maintain macroeconomic stability and ensure that China’s large savings are used effi

ciently supports the medium-term growth projection. India is another Asian country with a rapidly emerging economy. The medium-term prospects for India’s econ

omy are positive, as it continues to privatize state enter

prises and increasingly adopts free market policies. Average annual GDP growth in India over the 2004 to 2030 projection period is 5.7 percent. Accelerating struc

tural reforms—including ending regulatory impedi

ments to the consolidation of labor-intensive industries, labor market and bankruptcy reforms, and agricultural and trade liberalization—remains essential to stimulate potential growth and reduce poverty in the medium to long term. With its vast and relatively cheap labor force, India is well positioned to reap the benefits of globalization. In the rest of non-OECD Asia, economic activity has remained robust, with exports increasing in response to a rebound in global demand for high-technology prod

ucts and stronger import demand from China [ 7]. Over

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 11

### the medium term, national economic growth rates in the region are expected to be roughly constant over the 2004 to 2015 period, before tapering off gradually to an aver

age of 4.3 percent per year from 2015 to 2030 as labor force growth rates decline and economies mature. Although the nations of Central and South America reg

istered a combined 6-percent increase in GDP in 2004 (their best performance in 20 years), the region’s growth prospects are hampered by a weak international credit environment, as well as domestic economic and/or political problems in a number of countries. Growth in the region remains heavily dependent on the volume of foreign capital flows. Rising oil production and prices have helped boost eco

nomic growth in the oil-exporting countries of the Mid

dle East. Many of the oil-importing countries in the region have also benefited from spillover effects on trade, tourism, and financial flows from the region’s oil exporters. Real GDP growth in the Middle East region in 2006 is estimated at 5 percent. Medium-term prospects for the region remain favorable, given that a significant portion of the recent increase in oil revenues is expected to be permanent. Economic growth in Africa has maintained a healthy pace of more than 4 percent per year since 2000, driven by increased earnings from hydrocarbon exports, strong global demand and favorable international prices for some other export commodities, vigorous domestic demand, and significant foreign direct investment and foreign aid [ 8 ]. Over the 2004 to 2030 period, Africa’s combined economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.9 percent. This projection, optimistic by historical standards, is supported by the region’s strong economic activity over the past 5 years, which has resulted from expansion of primary exports and robust domestic demand in many of Africa’s national econo

mies. Nevertheless, both economic and political fac

tors—such as low savings and investment rates, lack of strong economic and political institutions, limited quan

tity and quality of infrastructure and human capital, negative perceptions on the part of international inves

tors, protracted civil unrest and political disturbances, and especially the impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth—present formidable obstacles to growth in a number of African countries. 

# Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases Expectations for the future rates of economic growth are a major source of uncertainty in the IEO2007 projections. To illustrate the uncertainties associated with economic growth trends, IEO2007 includes a high macroeconomic growth case and a low macroeconomic growth case in addition to the reference case. The two alternative growth cases use different assumptions about future economic growth paths, while maintaining the same relationship between changes in GDP and changes in energy consumption that is used in the reference case. In the high economic growth case, 0.5 percentage point is added to the growth rate assumed for each region or country in the reference case. In the low economic growth case, 0.5 percentage point is subtracted from the reference case growth rate. The IEO2007 reference case shows total world energy consumption reaching 702 quadrillion Btu in 2030—298 quadrillion Btu in the OECD countries and 404 quadrillion Btu in the non-OECD countries. In the high economic growth case, total world energy use in 2030 is projected at 773 qua

drillion Btu, 72 quadrillion Btu (or about 36 million bar

rels oil equivalent per day) higher than in the reference case. In the low economic growth case, world energy consumption in 2030 is projected to be 68 quadrillion Btu (34 million barrels oil equivalent per day) lower than in the reference case. Thus, there is a range of 140 quadril

lion Btu—about one-fifth of the total consumption pro

jected for 2030 in the reference case—between the projections for 2030 in the high and low macroeconomic growth cases (Figure 16). 

# Alternative World Oil Price Cases The impacts of world oil prices on energy demand and its composition are another large source of uncertainty in the IEO2007 projections. To illustrate the impacts, IEO2007 includes two alternative price cases. In the IEO2007 high world oil price case, world oil prices climb from $43 per barrel (2005 real dollars) in 2004 to $100 per

12 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1980 1995 2004 2015 203 0 0 200 400 600 800 Quadrillion Btu

History Projections Low Economic

Growth Reference High Economic

Growth 

### Figure 16. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### barrel in 2030. In the low price case, oil prices moderate fairly quickly to $49 per barrel in 2010 and then further to $34 per barrel in 2015 and remain at that level through 2030 (Figure 17). Despite the considerable difference between oil prices in the low and high price cases in 2030 (around $70 per barrel), the projections for total world energy consumption in the reference and alternative oil price cases do not vary substantially. There is, however, a larger impact on the energy mix. In 2030, total world energy use in the high and low world oil price cases is separated by only 38 quadrillion Btu (Figure 18). In comparison, the difference between the low and high macroeconomic growth case projections is 140 quadrillion Btu. The potential effects of higher and lower oil prices on world GDP can also be seen in the low and high world oil price cases (see box on page 14). In the long run, the projections for economic growth are not affected substantially by the oil price assumptions. The most significant variations are GDP increases of around 1 percent in the low price case relative to the ref

erence case in 2015 for some regions outside the Middle East and, in the oil-exporting Middle East region only, a 1-percent drop in GDP in 2015. In 2030, however, there are virtually no differences among GDP projections for any region in the different cases, because the world’s economies have had sufficient time to adjust to the lower or higher oil prices. The most significant impacts of the higher and lower world oil price assumptions are on the mix of energy fuels consumed in each region, particularly liquids and coal (Figure 19). In the high price case, total world energy use in 2030 is about 20 quadrillion Btu lower, and world liquids consumption is 29 quadrillion Btu lower,than projected in the reference case. Natural gas consumption is also lower in 2030, by a more modest 5 quadrillion Btu, whereas the projections for coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy consumption are higher than those in the reference case. In the low world oil price case, lower prices both allowconsumers to increase their use of liquids for transportation purposes and discourage the migration away fromliquids to other energy sources in sectors where fuel substitution is fairly easy to achieve (as opposed to the transportation sector, where there are still relatively few alternatives to petroleum-based fuels). Total liquids

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 13 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 Dollars per Barrel History Projections

High World

Oil Price

Reference

Low World Oil Price 

### Figure 17. World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, 1980-2030

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 200 400 600 800 Quadrillion Btu High Price Reference Low Price 

### Figure 18. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). Reference High Price Low Price 0 100 200 300 400 Quadrillion Btu Liquids Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 

### Figure 19. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030

Note: Liquids supply sources include both conventional and unconventional sources.

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).14 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### World GDP: Potential Impacts of High and Low Oil Prices Price paths in the IEO2007 high and low world oil price cases are not characterized by disruption but rather represent sustained movements relative to the refer

ence case oil price path. The assumptions behind the oil price cases are that the price changes do not come as a shock and that the central banks of developed coun

tries are able to carry out active monetary policies effectively, because core inflation does not get out of hand and exchange rates do not change from those in the reference case. Further, it is assumed that national fiscal policies do not vary from those in the reference case. If any of these assumptions were changed, the economic projections in the alternative cases would be altered. Global Insight, Inc.’s Global Scenario Model was employed to project the alternative paths of world eco

nomic growth in the high and low world oil price cases relative to the reference case. The figures below repre

sent percentage differences, over time, in nominal world oil prices (left) and real world GDP (right) in the high and low world oil price cases relative to those in the reference case. In the high price case, oil prices rise steadily to 62 percent above reference case prices within 8 years (2014). Thereafter the difference widens gradually, to 76 percent above reference case prices in 2030. In the low price case, oil prices are 28 percentbelow reference case prices in 2013, after which the difference widens to 43 percent in 2030. Because world oil prices fall proportionately less in the low price case than they rise in the high price case (rela

tive to the reference case), changes in GDP projections in the two price cases relative to those in the reference case are not symmetrical. Also, because most of the deviation from reference case prices in the high and low cases occurs by approximately 2014, differences from the reference case GDP projections are greatest at that point in time, then begin to narrow as the rates at which oil prices change become more similar across the three cases. Higher (and lower) oil prices relative to the reference case affect national economies both internally and in their interactions with other nations through exports and imports. In the short term, as higher oil prices feed through the economy and reduce purchasing power, real aggregate expenditures on goods and services decline. a 

### With aggregate demand for output falling behind aggregate supply, unemployment increases, energy-intensive capital stock begins to become obso

lete, and real GDP is lower.In oil-importing countries that also have major oilproducing sectors, like the United States, higher oil prices increase the flow of economic resources into oil production activities. At the same time, nationalexpenditures on petroleum imports increase, with negative repercussions for real GDP. Countries wholly dependent on oil imports, like Japan, are forced to spend more for their energy purchases. Oil-importing countries with export-dependent economies, like South Korea, are affected even more severely, as their energy expenditures climb while export revenues fall because worldwide demand is lower. In addition, with (continued on page 15)

aThe discussion here focuses on economic effects in the high oil price case. In the low oil price case, effects will be diametrically opposite. 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0.0 0.4 0.8

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2 Percent

High World Oil Price Low World Oil Price

-1.1% 0.7% 

### Differences from Reference Case World Real GDP Projections in the High and Low World Oil Price Cases, 2006-2030

Source: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model (February 2007). 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 20 40 60 80

-20

-40

-60 Percent
High World Oil Price

Low World Oil Price 62% 76%

-28% -43% 

### Differences from Reference Case World Oil Price Projections in the High and Low World Oil Price Cases, 2006-2030

Source: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model (February 2007).

### consumption in 2030 is 33 quadrillion Btu higher in the low price case than projected in the reference case, reflecting increased demand in all the end-use sectors. The transportation sector shows the largest increase in liquids consumption in 2030 in the low world oil price relative to the reference case, at 18 quadrillion Btu (Figure 20). In the IEO2007 reference case, world oil prices rise steadily after 2015, to $59 per barrel in 2030. As a result, liquids consumption is curtailed in countries that have other fuel options available—especially in the electric power sector, where coal and other fuels can be substi

tuted. In the reference case, worldwide use of liquids for electricity generation grows by only 1.0 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030. In the low world oil price case, the corresponding increase is 4.0 quadrillion Btu, as coun

tries in both the OECD and non-OECD regions retain their oil-fired generating capacity in the lower price environment. 

# Trends in Energy Intensity Another major source of uncertainty in the projections is the changing relationship of energy use to GDP—or energy intensity—over time. Economic growth and energy demand are linked, but the strength of that link varies among regions. In the OECD nations, history shows the link to be a relatively weak one, with energy demand lagging behind economic growth (Figure 21). In the non-OECD region, except for non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, economic growth has been closely corre

lated with energy demand growth for much of the past three decades (Figure 22). Only recently, within the past decade or so, has economic growth begun to outpace the growth in energy use among the world’s emerging economies.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 15 

### World GDP: Potential Impacts of High and Low Oil Prices (Continued) higher aggregate prices, interest rates tend to rise. Oil-exporting countries, like Saudi Arabia and Russia, see more revenue from their oil exports, boosting incomes and increasing their demand for goods and services and their real GDP.
Over time, the world economy adjusts back to its long-term (reference case) growth path. In the medium term, increases in unemployment lead to downward adjustments in wages and prices. In developed coun

tries, central banks react by lowering key policy rates, thus boosting interest-sensitive aggregate demand. After 2015, the rebound effects of lower employment costs, lower prices, and lower interest rates outweigh the contractionary effects of higher oil prices, leading to stronger real GDP growth and lower inflation. As aggregate demand increases in the oil-exporting coun

tries with higher oil revenues, their demand for imports grows, increasing the demand for exports from the oil-importing countries. As a result, in 2030, the world economy ends up with almost the same realGDP growth rate and unemployment rate as in the reference case, although the composition and sources of world output, international trade, and capital flows are qualitatively different from those in the reference case. Real GDP in the high and low world oil price cases deviates from its reference case path for a considerable period of time, but as the world economy adjusts to the higher or lower oil prices, the deviation becomes smaller. Thus, world real GDP in 2030 is approximately the same in the three cases. Using 2006 and 2030 as end points to compute average annual growth rates in world real GDP, the rates in the three cases are approxi

mately the same; however, that calculation does not portray adequately the dynamic movements of the world economy and the extent of the differences across the three cases. The present discounted sum of changes in real GDP over the projection period gives a better indication of net effects on the world economy. The sums of the changes in world GDP from the reference case (discounted at 7 percent) in the low and high price cases over the 2006-2030 period are $2,937 billion and -$4,226 billion, respectively, representing approxi

mately 0.3 percent and -0.4 percent of the sum of dis

counted real GDP in the reference case—taking intoaccount factor displacements, dislocations, and adjustments as well as gainers and losers within and across countries.

239
210 272

Reference Hi g h Price Low Price 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Quadrillion Btu

Transportation Industrial Residential Commercial Electric Power 

### Figure 20. World Liquids Consumption in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Historically, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia have had higher levels of energy intensity than either the OECD or other non-OECD economies. In non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, energy consumption generally grew more rap

idly than GDP until 1990 (Figure 23), when the collapse of the Soviet Union created a situation in which both income and energy use declined but GDP fell more quickly. As a result, energy intensity increased. Only since the late 1990s, after the 1997 devaluation of the Russian ruble, did the Russian and Ukrainian industrial sectors begin to strengthen. Since then, economic growth in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia has begun to outpace growth in energy use significantly, and energy intensity has begun a precipitous decline. The region’s energy intensity is projected to continue declining in the IEO2007 reference case, while still remaining higher than in any other part of the world (Figure 24). The stage of economic development and the standard of living of individuals in a given region strongly influence

16 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Index, 1980 = 1 History Projections

Energy Use Gross Domestic Product 

### Figure 21. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the OECD Economies, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Index, 1980 = 1 History Projections

Energy Use Gross Domestic Product 

### Figure 22. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies, 1980-2030

Note: Non-OECD economies in this figure exclude nonOECD Europe and Eurasia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1980 1995 2004 2015 203 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Index, 1980 = 1 History Projections

Energy Use Gross Domestic Product 

### Figure 23. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Non-OECD Economies of Europe and Eurasia, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 5 10 15 20 25 Thousand Btu per 2000 Dollar of GDP History Projections

OECD

Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and

Eurasia 

### Figure 24. Energy Intensity by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Admin

istration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### the link between economic growth and energy demand. Advanced economies with high living standards have relatively high levels of energy use per capita, but they also tend to be economies where per capita energy use is stable or changes very slowly. In the OECD economies, there is a high penetration rate of modern appliances and motorized personal transportation equipment. Tothe extent that spending is directed to energyconsuming goods, it involves more often than not pur

chases of new equipment to replace old capital stock. The new stock is often more efficient than the equipment it replaces, resulting in a weaker link between income and energy demand. The pace of improvement in energy intensity may change, given different assumptions of macroeconomic growth over time. Faster growth in income generally leads to a faster rate of improvement (decline) in energy intensity. In the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth case, worldwide energy intensity is projected to decline by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2030, as compared with 2.2 percent in the reference case. On the other hand, slower economic growth generally leads to a slower rate of improvement in energy intensity. In thelow macroeconomic growth case, world energy intensity is projected to decline by an average of only 2.1 percent per year over the projection period. 

# References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 17



### 1. S. Saraf, “India Set To Revise Hydroelectric Policy,”

Power in Asia , No. 471 (February 1, 2007), pp. 8-9. 2. “Xiangjiaba Starts Construction,” Power in Asia , No. 467/468 (December 7, 2006), pp. 19-20. 3. Global Insight, Inc., “Bolivia: Concerns in Bolivia

Over Brazil’s Plans To Build Power Plants on Border” (January 31, 2007), web site www. globalinsight.com. 4. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel

opment, OECD Economic Outlook No. 80 (Paris, France, November 2006), Annex Table 21, “Poten

tial GDP, Employment and Capital Stock,” web site www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/49/37841330.xls. 5. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Out

look: Financial Systems and Economic Cycles (Wash

ington, DC, September 2006), p. 23, web site www. imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/index. htm. 6. M. Mussa, “Strong Growth, Rising Inflation, and

Tighter Monetary Policies This Year Point to Slower Global Growth for 2007,” Presentation at the Tenth Semiannual Meeting on Global Economic Prospects (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for Interna

tional Economics, September 2006). 7. The International Bank for Reconstruction and

Development / The World Bank, Global EconomicProspects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (Washington, DC, December 2006), p. 6, web site www.worldbank.org/gep2007. 8. United Nations, World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 (New York, NY, 2007), p. 9, web site www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html.

# Chapter 2 

# Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector

In the IEO2007 projections, end-use energy consumption depends on resource endowment, economic growth, and other political, social, and demographic factors.

One way of looking at the future of world energy mar

kets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transpor

tation sector, which is dominated by petroleum-based liquids products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors varies widely by region, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and polit

ical, social, and demographic factors. This chapter out

lines IEO2007 reference case projections for delivered energy consumption by end-use sector in the OECD and non-OECD regions. 

# Transportation Sector Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving people and goods by road,rail, air, water, and pipeline. The road transport component includes light-duty vehicles, such as automobiles,sport utility vehicles, minivans, small trucks, and motorbikes, as well as heavy-duty vehicles, such as large trucks used for moving freight and buses for passenger travel. Growth in economic activity and population growth are the key factors that determine transportation sector energy demand. Economic growth spurs growth in industrial output, which requires the movement of raw materials to manufacturing sites as well as move

ment of manufactured goods to end users. In developingeconomies, increased economic activity expands percapita income; and as standards of living rise, demand for personal transportation increases. Over the next 25 years, demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels is expected to increase more rapidly in the transportation sector than in any of the other end-use sectors. In the OECD countries, which are projected to remain the greatest users of energy for transportation, the transportation sector’s share of total liquids demand is projected to rise from 58 percent in 2004 to 63 percent in 2030. In the non-OECD countries, the transportation sector is projected to account for a rising share of liquids consumption, and the liquids share of transportation energy use grows from 42 percent in 2004 to nearly 50 percent in 2030. A primary factor contributing to the expected increase in energy demand for transportation is steadily increasing demand for personal travel in both the developing and mature economies. Increases in urbanization and in per

sonal incomes have contributed to increases in air travel as well as increased motorization (i.e., more vehicles) in the growing economies. Modal shifts in the transport of goods are expected to result from strong GDP growth in both OECD and non-OECD economies. For freight transportation, trucking is expected to lead the growth in demand for transportation fuels. In addition, as trade among countries increases, the volumes of freight trans

ported by air and marine vessels is expected to increase rapidly over the projection period [ 1 ].In the price environment of the past several years, alternative transportation fuels have received growing attention worldwide. The United States, for instance, has passed legislation to increase the amount of ethanol in the U.S. liquids mix and has increased funding for research on cellulosic biofuels. In OECD Europe, there has been a major push to increase the use of alternativefuels for transportation, including natural gas. Alternative fuels remain fairly expensive, however. Barring any widespread increase in penetration of new technologies, whether driven by policy changes or other factors, the world’s use of alternative fuels in the transportation sec

tor is expected to remain relatively modest through 2030 in both OECD and non-OECD countries.
OECD Countries Energy demand for transportation in the OECD econo

mies is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent, from 57.9 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 63.7 qua

drillion Btu in 2015 and 73.4 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 25). As a whole, the OECD transportation sector can be characterized as fully established, with extensive infrastructure that includes highways, airport facilities, and rail systems. Transportation uses are expected to account for nearly all the growth in demand for liquids in the OECD countries over the projection period. In the United States, the transportation sector contin

ues to account for almost one-fourth of the country’s total energy consumption; and in the IEO2007 reference case, U.S. transportation energy demand is projected to grow from 27.9 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 32.1 quadril

lion Btu in 2015 and 39.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The United States is the largest user of transportation energy among the OECD nations and is projected to consume

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 19

### 54 percent of the region’s total for the transportation sec

tor in 2030. Freight trucks are projected to be the fastest growing mode of travel in the United States, with vehi

cle miles traveled by freight trucks increasing at an aver

age rate of 2.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, while their energy use increases by 1.8 percent per year. U.S. air travel is projected to increase by an average of 1.7 percent per year over the period; however, advanced aircraft technologies are expected to improve the effi

ciency of air travel, and so fuel use for air travel grows by only 1.4 percent per year. Income growth and stable fuel prices are expected to continue the demand for larger, more powerful vehicles in the United States; however, advanced technologies and materials are expected to provide increased perfor

mance and size while improving new vehicle fuel econ

omy. In March 2006, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finalized corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards requiring higher fuel econ

omy performance for light-duty trucks in model years (MY) 2008 through 2011 [ 2 ]. The new CAFE standardsspecify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the center of the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet. U.S. fuel economy standards for cars are assumed to remain at the current (2004) level of 27.5 miles per gallon through 2030. In Mexico, strong GDP growth (3.6 percent per year) is projected to increase energy consumption in the transportation sector at an average rate of 2.3 percent per year, from 1.8 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 2.3 quadril

lion Btu in 2015, and 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The projected increase in transportation fuel use is based on expected growth in trade with the United States and overall improvement in the country’s standard of living [ 3 ]. Transportation energy demand in OECD Europe is pro

jected to increase by only 0.2 percent per year, from cur

rent usage of 18.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 18.9 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 19.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The transportation share of total energy use in OECD Europe is projected to decline slightly, from 23 percent in 2004 to about 22 percent in 2030. Low population growth, high taxes on transportation fuels, and environ

mental policies to discourage growth in transportation energy use are expected to slow the growth of transpor

tation demand in OECD Europe.
Non-OECD Countries The projected average growth rate of transportation energy use in the non-OECD countries from 2004 to2030, at 2.9 percent per year, is more than triple the projected rate for OECD countries, and their use of liquids in the transportation sector is expected to double over the period (Figure 25). Among the non-OECD countries, China, India, and the nations of Central and South America are expected to be significant contributors tothe growth in transportation sector energy consumption. China and India are expected to show the largestincreases among the non-OECD countries. The combined growth rate for transportation energy use in all the countries of Central and South American economies is projected to be similar to that in India. Historically, growth in transportation activity has been tied to income growth, indicating a strong relationship between per-capita GDP and passenger car travel per capita in countries with developing economies [ 4 ]. In many countries of OECD Asia, the availability of financ

ing and an increase in the debt tolerance of middle class families are contributing to increased vehicle purchases. Total transportation energy demand in the non-OECD countries is projected to grow from 29.8 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 42.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 63.1 quadril

lion Btu in 2030. The transportation sector is projected to account for nearly 60 percent of the total increase in liq

uids use in non-OECD countries from 2004 to 2030. The growth in transportation energy use is expected to be led by greater demand for aviation fuel. Expanding owner

ship of private automobiles and an increasing role of trucking in freight transportation also play a significant role in the expected increase in energy demand. In 2004, the non-OECD economies accounted for about 34 per

cent of world energy use for transportation. In 2030, their share is projected to be 46 percent, as the gap

20 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 20 40 60 80 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 25. OECD and Non-OECD Transportation Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### between transportation energy consumption in the non-OECD and OECD economies narrows substantially over the projection period (Figure 25). China’s energy use for transportation is projected to grow by an average of 4.9 percent per year, from 4.4 qua

drillion Btu in 2004 to 7.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 15.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Virtually all the growth in transportation energy consumption in China is pro

jected to be in the form of liquids, mostly petroleumbased. As the country’s economy expands, its energy use for air travel is expected to grow more rapidly than energy use for road transport (see box on page 22). Per

sonal travel in China has soared in the past two decades, with passenger miles traveled increasing fivefold [ 5 ]. Still, in 2005 there were 4.5 million automobiles in China [ 6 ], as compared with 130.8 million automobiles in the United States [ 7]. After China, India is expected to experience the fastest expansion in transportation sector energy use in the world. India’s transportation energy use is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.3 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, compared with the world average of 1.7 percent per year. In comparison with other countries in the emerging, non-OECD Asia region, India’s transportation infrastructure is well developed and used effectively by a large section of the population. Its railways are particularly established—although many rural areas still are largely inaccessible by rail. The IEO2007 reference case anticipates that India will continue to expand its public transportation networks over the projection period, allowing robust increases in both road and rail transport and resulting in a more than dou

bling of transportation energy use between 2004 and 2030. The pace and extent of transportation infrastructure improvements in China and India will influence the pace of growth in their transportation energy use. Inter

connecting cities with major ports will allow goods and people to flow more quickly, making motorized road travel—for both freight transport and personal motor vehicles—more attractive. India launched its National Highways Development Project (NHDP) in 1998 to modernize its major highways [ 8 ]. The first phase of the project—the “Golden Quadrilateral,” a 3,625-mile multi

lane highway system that connects Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Calcutta—was completed at the end of2006. The second phase—the North-South and EastWest national highways that will connect the outermost points of the country—will comprise more than 4,200 miles of highway, with a scheduled completion date of December 2007. Additional NHDP projects are sched

uled beyond that. Transportation infrastructure investments are also occurring in China. In Beijing, a considerable amount of road construction and repair is underway in advance of the 2008 Olympic Games, with more than 40 main roads being repaired and 27 new arteries and 9 expressways under construction [ 9 ]. The country also has an ambi

tious plan to construct a 53,125-mile national express

way network to connect all its major transportation hubs, including railways, airports, and ports [ 10 ]. The “7918 Network” will, upon completion in 2020, connect Beijing with 7 major population centers or transporta

tion hubs; 9 highways will connect the northern and southern parts of the country; and 18 highways will pro

vide east-west connections. The need to expand road infrastructure is also evident in China’s rural areas. For example, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region has announced plans to invest some $1.2 billion on road works in 2007, to build more than 2,400 miles of new roadway [ 11 ]. The Middle East has a relatively small population and is not a major energy consumer but rather an exporter; however, rapid population growth in the region is expected to result in increased demand for transporta

tion. The region’s energy demand for transportation is projected to grow from 4.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 6.9 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 9.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030. 

# Residential Sector Energy use in the residential sector, which accounted forabout 11 percent of worldwide delivered energy consumption in 2004, is defined as the energy consumed byhouseholds, excluding transportation uses. For residential buildings, the physical size of the structures is one key indicator of the amount of energy used by their occupants. Larger homes require more energy to pro

vide heating, air conditioning, and lighting, and they tend to include more energy-using appliances, such as televisions and laundry equipment. Smaller structures require less energy, because they contain less space to be heated or cooled, produce less heat transfer with the out

door environment, and typically have fewer occupants. The type and amount of energy used by households vary from country to country, depending on income lev

els, natural resources, climate, and available energy infrastructure. In general, typical households in the OECD use more energy than those in non-OECD nations, in part because higher income levels allow OECD households to purchase more energy-using equipment. Consequently, residential sector energy use in the OECD countries accounts for about 60 percent of the world’s residential delivered energy use, although the OECD nations account for only 18 percent of the world’s population.

Whereas households in the OECD nations used more energy in 2004 in total than did the non-OECD nations, more rapid growth of residential energy consumption is

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2122 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### China’s Transportation Sector: Recent Developments and Long-Term Projections What happens in China in terms of liquids demand can have a substantial impact on world oil markets. China, with a rapidly expanding transportation sector, is the world’s fastest-growing oil consumer. In the past 2 years, China alone accounted for more than 30 percent of the world’s incremental consumption of liquid fuels. a 

### China’s strong growth in consumption helped to support high world oil prices in 2005 and 2006. Transportation use is likely to define much of the growth in China’s liquids consumption. An under

standing of potential developments in China’s trans

portation energy use over the coming decades is important, because it can allow analysts to consider how China’s liquids markets will evolve and their potential impacts on world oil markets. Economic growth, rapid urbanization, and the emer

gence of a modern transportation system all have con

tributed to the recent increase in China’s liquids consumption. In the IEO2007 reference case, total liquids consumption in China is projected to average 3.5- percent growth annually—higher than the growth rate for any other country in the world—and to reach 32 quadrillion Btu (about 16 million barrels oil equivalentper day) in 2030. In comparison, U.S. liquids consumption grows at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year over the projection period, to more than 52 quadrillion Btu in 2030. China is projected to account for 28 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption from 2004 to 2030 and for 14 percent of the world’s total con

sumption in 2030, nearly double its share in 2004.

In the IEO2007 projections, China’s energy use for transportation grows at a rate that is only about 20 per

cent less than its GDP growth rate, and the transporta

tion share of its total liquids use increases from 32 percent in 2004 to 47 percent by 2030. Similar trends have characterized other developing economies in the past, both in the west and in Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan. High rates of economic growth in developing economies (particularly if growth is linked to manufacturing) typically require increased transportation services to connect production facilities with raw materials and energy sources, and to trans

port manufactured goods to consumer markets in growing urban areas. In addition, rising per-capita incomes historically have been associated with rapid increases in personal travel by road and air. In China, most of the growth in transportation energy consumption is expected to be for road use (see figure below). Total transportation energy use is projected to increase by more than 11 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030, and road vehicles are projected to account for nearly 70 percent of the increase. Air, rail, and marine transportation modes account for 14, 12, and 5 percent of the projected increase, respectively. Factors affecting the projections for transportation energy use by mode include urbanization and expansion of the middle class, efficiency improvements, consumer preferences, costs, and lag times associated with infrastructure development.

In the projections by travel mode, China’s energy use for air travel has the highest growth rate, consistently exceeding the growth rate for GDP despite the expecta

tion of significant improvements in fuel efficiency for air travel (see top figure on page 23). Similarly, Boeing Commercial Airplanes has estimated that revenue pas

senger-miles in China will grow about 20 percent faster than GDP from 2005 to 2025. b 

### Energy use for rail trans

portation (both passenger and freight) increases more slowly, at about 75 percent the rate of GDP growth on average from 2004 to 2030. c 

### (continued on page 23)

aEnergy Information Administration, International Petroleum Monthly (February 7, 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ipm; and ShortTerm Energy Outlook (February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo.

b Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Current Market Outlook 2006 (Seattle, WA), p. 24, web site www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pdf/ CMO_06.pdf.

cThe energy use projection incorporates an estimated 15-percent efficiency improvement over the forecast. 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 5 10 15 20 Quadrillion Btu

Road Rail Air Water 

### Transportation Energy Use in China by Mode, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 23 

### China’s Transportation Sector: Recent Developments and Long-Term Projections (Continued)

As China’s per-capita income rises, cars are expected tobe the mode of choice for an increasing share of passenger travel, as has been observed in other developingeconomies. Buses and two- and three-wheeled vehicles, which accounted for 42 percent of road energy use in China in 2004, are projected to decline to a 26- percent share in 2030, while the share represented by cars and light trucks increases from 18 percent in 2004 to 33 percent in 2030 (see figure below). The projections for road transportation assume that the ongoing development of China’s road infrastructure will keep pace with increases in vehicle use. From 1994 to 2004, the country’s total highway length grew at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent, d 

### and similar increases will be needed annually from 2004 to 2030. If the pace of infrastructure construction cannot be main

tained, China’s transportation energy use could grow more slowly than projected. Consumption of all transportation fuels in China (with the exception of coal used in older steam locomotives) increases in the projections (see figure below). Total liquids consumption for transportation in 2030 is pro

jected to be 11.2 quadrillion Btu more than the 2004 total. Diesel fuel, gasoline, and jet fuel account for 46 percent, 36 percent, and 14 percent of the increase, respectively; and diesel fuel and gasoline together account for 80 percent of China’s total projected energy use for transportation in 2030. Consumption of diesel fuel is expected to increase more rapidly than gasoline use, however, because it is the primary rail fuel and amajor fuel for marine transport, and because diesel-fueled trucks are projected to account for anincreasing share of total fuel use by large trucks. Following historical trends, coal use in China’s transportation sector is projected to decline steadily, as diesel locomotives replace older railroad equipment.

dNational Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2005 (Beijing, People’s Republic of China: China Statistics Press), web site www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexeh.htm. 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 25 50 75 100 Percent of Total Large Trucks Cars/Light Trucks Buses Two-/Three-Wheel Vehicles 

### China’s Energy Use for Road Transportation by Vehicle Type, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 5 10 15 20 Quadrillion Btu

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Heavy Fuel Oil Other 

### China’s Transportation Energy Use by Fuel Type, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2004-2030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Percent per Year
GDP Road Rail Air Water 

### Average Annual Growth in China’s GDP and Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### projected for the non-OECD than for the OECD coun

tries, and in 2020 non-OECD residential energy use is expected to exceed OECD residential energy use (Figure 26). Worldwide, the projected increase in residential electricity demand accounts for nearly 60 percent of the growth in overall residential energy demand from 2004 through 2030. By 2025, electricity overtakes natural gas as the world’s largest source of energy for household

use.

OECD Countries Households in OECD nations use energy more inten

sively than those in non-OECD nations, primarily because of their higher income levels. The United States and OECD Europe together consumed nearly one-half (49 percent) of the world’s delivered residential energy in 2004; however, their share is expected to fall to 38 per

cent in 2030 as a result of increasing efficiency and slower growth in residential energy use than projected for the non-OECD countries.
Growth in electricity use in the OECD countries accounts for about 81 percent of the total projected growth in OECD residential energy demand (Figure 27),which will require additional power plants and corresponding increases in fuel use for electricity generation. Mexico’s residential energy use is projected to show the highest rate of increase among the OECD nations, as its real GDP grows at a projected rate that is 44 percenthigher than the OECD average. In OECD Asia, residential (and total) energy demand is projected to grow very little, because little or no growth is expected in the region’s total population. Non-OECD Countries Household energy use is projected to increase more rap

idly in the non-OECD countries than in the OECD coun

tries over the coming decades (Figure 27). In China and India, population growth, rising income levels, and urbanization are expected to produce large increases indemand for residential energy services. For the nonOECD region as a whole, real GDP is projected to grow by more than 5 percent per year on average from 2004 through 2030, population is projected to grow by more than 1 percent per year, and household energy use is projected to grow at a robust rate of 2.4 percent per year, as higher incomes foster increased use of energy-using appliances. As a result, households in the non-OECD nations are projected to consume about 10 percent more energy than households in the OECD nations in 2030, requiring more than 86 percent more energy in 2030 than was consumed in the region in 2004. China and India are expected to account for more than 40 percent of the increase in residential energy use in the non-OECD countries through 2030, as their economies continue to grow rapidly over the projection period. In many non-OECD countries today, households still use traditional, non-marketed energy sources, includingwood and waste, for heating and cooking. Regional economic development should displace some of that use as incomes rise and marketed fuels, such as propane and electricity, become more widely accessible. 

# Commercial Sector
The commercial sector—often referred to as the services sector or the services and institutional sector—consists

24 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 26. OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). Liquids Natural Gas Coal Electricity Total Delivered Energ y 0 2 4 6

-2 Average Annual Percent Change
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 27. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### of businesses, institutions, and organizations that pro

vide services. The sector encompasses many different types of buildings and a wide range of activities and energy-related services. Examples of commercial sector facilities include schools, stores, correctional institu

tions, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, museums, office buildings, banks, and even stadiums that hold sporting events. Most commercial energy use occurs in buildings or structures, supplying services such as space heating, water heating, lighting, cooking, and cooling. Energy consumed for services not associated with buildings, such as for traffic lights and city water and sewer ser

vices, is also categorized as commercial sector energy

use. Economic and population growth trends drive commer

cial sector activity and the resulting energy use. The need for services (health, education, financial, govern

ment) increases as populations increase. The degree to which these additional needs are met depends in large measure on economic resources—whether from domes

tic or foreign sources—and economic growth. Economic growth also determines the degree to which additional commercial sector activities are offered and utilized. Higher levels of economic activity and disposableincome lead to increased demand for hotels and restaurants to meet business and leisure requirements; for office and retail space to house and service new and expanding businesses; and for cultural and leisure space such as theaters, galleries, and arenas.

OECD Countries Slow population growth in most of the OECD nations contributes to a slower rate of increase in the region’s commercial energy demand in the IEO2007 projections than has been seen in the past. In addition, continued efficiency improvements are expected to moderate the growth of energy demand over time, as energy-using equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient stock. Conversely, strong economic growth is expected to include continued growth in business activity, with its associated energy use, in areas such as retail and whole

sale trade and business, financial, and leisure services. The combination of these factors causes commercial delivered energy consumption in the OECD countries to increase by an average of 1.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 in the reference case (Figure 28). Although the fastest growth in commercial energy demand among the OECD economies is expected to be in the countries with the fastest economic growth (Mexico and South Korea), the United States remains the largest consumer of com

mercial delivered energy in the OECD, accounting for one-half of the 24.6 quadrillion Btu of commercial energy use in the OECD as a whole in 2030. Commercial electricity demand in the OECD nations is projected to grow by 1.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, with continued advances in technology and theintroduction of new electronic appliances and equipment (Figure 29). Electricity delivered to commercial consumers in the OECD countries, which totaled 8.6quadrillion Btu in 2004, is projected to reach 10.8 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 13.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030, surpassing projected OECD residential electricity use of 12.9 quadrillion Btu by the end of the projection period. Natural gas continues to displace petroleum products and coal as the preferred heating fuel in the OECD region.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 25 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 40 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 28. OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). Liquids Natural Gas Coal Electricity Total Delivered Energ y 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 Average Annual Percent Change
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 29. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Non-OECD Countries Economic growth and commerce are expected to increase rapidly in the non-OECD nations, fueling addi

tional energy demand in the services sector. Faster pop

ulation growth is also expected, relative to that in the OECD countries, portending increases in the need for education, health care, and social services and the energy required to provide them. Under these circum

stances, commercial delivered energy use in non-OECD countries is projected to double between 2004 and 2020, to 12.5 quadrillion Btu, and to continue growing to 16.1 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Over the 2004 to 2030 period, commercial energy use in the non-OECD region increases at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent. Electricity demand for commercial applications is pro

jected to grow rapidly in the non-OECD nations as more clinics, schools, and businesses gain access to electricity. Annual growth in commercial delivered electricity use averages 4.9 percent through 2030 (Figure 29), with projected consumption of 6.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 10.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The largest increases in commercial electricity demand are projected for nations with rapidly growing economies, particularly China and India, as their burgeoning economies foster increases in demand for services.
In the IEO2007 projections, commercial demand for natural gas grows by 3.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2015 and by 2.7 percent from 2004 to 2030, as several countries focus on expanding the infrastructure necessary fordelivery of the fuel. Commercial sector liquids consumption is projected to increase from 1.6 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 2.2 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 2.5 quadril

lion Btu in 2030 in the non-OECD region, increasing more rapidly in areas where the availability of naturalgas is limited. Commercial sector coal use in the nonOECD countries increases from 0.5 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 0.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030, with most of the growth occurring between 2004 and 2015. Coal remains an economically attractive choice for commercial water heating, space heating, and cooking in non-OECD coun

tries in the projections, especially in China and India,which together account for around 80 percent of nonOECD commercial coal use from 2004 through 2030. 

# Industrial Sector Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse group of industries—including manufacturing, agricul

ture, mining, and construction—and for a wide range of activities, such as process and assembly uses, space con

ditioning, and lighting. Inputs that typically are consid

ered energy products are included in industrial sector energy use. For example, natural gas and petroleum products used as feedstocks to produce non-energy products, such as plastics, are counted as energy used in the industrial sector. Industrial sector energy demand varies across regions and countries of the world, based on the level and mix of economic activity, technological development, and population, among other factors. The industrial sector is the largest of the end-use sectors, consuming more than 50 percent of the delivered energy worldwide in 2004. Worldwide, energy consumption in the industrial sector is projected to increase by an aver

age of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 through 2030, as compared with 1.0-percent average annual growth in the global population. Industrial energy consumption is expected to increase in all countries and regions; how

ever, much slower growth in industrial sector energy use is projected for the OECD region than for the non-OECD region, with annual average increases of 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively (Figure 30).

OECD Countries Industrial sector energy use among the OECD nations increases by 0.6 percent per year in the IEO2007 refer

ence case, from 72.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 84.9 qua

drillion Btu in 2030. The United States accounts for more than one-third of the OECD’s total industrial energy consumption in 2030, and OECD Europe accounts for approximately another one-third of the OECD total, just as they did in 2004.The OECD economies generally have more energyefficient industrial operations and a mix of industrialoutput that is more heavily weighted toward nonenergy-intensive sectors than do the non-OECD countries. Also, in the United States, the manufacturing share of total economic output has declined steadily over the past two decades, while the output share for service

26 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 50 100 150 200 Quadrillion Btu

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 30. OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### industries (included in the commercial sector) has in

creased. These general trends are projected to continue. Similar developments are expected for the other OECD economies, as increasing international trade fosters a shift toward a less energy-intensive mix of industrial activity. For example, many of Japan’s heavy industriesare reducing their output as demand for energyintensive materials increasingly is met by imports from China and other Asian countries. In the projections, the industrial sector in Mexico has the fastest energy con

sumption growth among the OECD countries, at nearly 2.2 percent per year. In Germany, a decline in industrial energy intensity in the early 1990s was largely the result of closures of heavy industries in the former East Ger

many after reunification. Much of the inefficient, energy-intensive capacity in the eastern part of Ger

many has already been shut down, but further improve

ments are projected as capital stock is replaced and modernized. Electricity accounted for about 16 percent of OECD industrial energy use in 2004, and its share increases slightly over the projection period. Oil and natural gas were the most heavily used fuels in the OECD countries’ industrial sectors in 2004, together accounting for two-thirds of the energy consumed in the sector. Thetwo energy sources are projected to maintain their overall share in 2030, but consumption of natural gas is projected to grow almost five times as rapidly as that of liquids (Figure 31). Electricity and coal make up the bulk of the remaining projected energy consumption, while renewables remain a minor energy source for the sector.

Non-OECD Countries Industrial sector energy consumption is projected to increase by 2.5 percent per year in the non-OECD coun

tries between 2004 and 2030 (Figure 30). The non-OECD economies generally have higher industrial sector energy consumption relative to GDP than do the OECD countries. On average, the ratio is almost 40 percent higher in the non-OECD countries. This is particularly true of Russia and the Eastern European countries which still have energy-inefficient capital remaining from the days of central planning. Per dollar of GDP, Russia’s industrial sector consumed almost 8,000 Btu of deliv

ered energy in 2004, and the non-OECD European and other Eurasian countries averaged 5,500 Btu, as com

pared with the overall non-OECD average of 3,500 Btu per dollar of GDP and the overall OECD average of around 2,500 Btu per dollar of GDP. As inefficient facili

ties in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia are replaced with modern capacity, industrial energy intensities in the region are expected to decline more rapidly than in most of the rest of the world. Of the non-OECD economies, China, India, and the other Asian nations are expected to have the most rapid increases in industrial sector energy consumption between 2004 and 2030. Whereas the economies of the OECD countries have largely moved away from heavy, energy-intensive industries (such as steel and cement) toward a greater emphasis on light manufacturing andservice activities, the economies of many of the nonOECD countries and regions have growing energyintensive, heavy manufacturing sectors. Although electricity is expected to become an increas

ingly important component of industrial sector deliv

ered energy demand in the non-OECD economies, oil, coal, and natural gas were the most heavily used fuels in 2004, and they are projected to remain so in 2030. Liquids use in the non-OECD industrial sector increases at a slower rate than natural gas or coal use (Figure 31). The continued importance of coal in the non-OECD industrial sector is largely attributable to China, which accounts for 70 percent of industrial coal use in the non-OECD economies in 2030.



# References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 27 Liquids Natural Gas Coal Electricity Total Delivered Energ y 0 1 2 3 4 Average Annual Percent Change
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 31. Growth in OECD and Non-OECD Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).



### 1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy

Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2006) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ oiaf/aeo. 2. Asian Automotive Business Review, Vol. 17, No.2

(April 2006).28 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### 3. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site www.worldenergyoutlook.org. 4. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site www.worldenergyoutlook.org. 5. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), web site www.worldenergyoutlook.org. 6. Asian Automotive Business Review, Vol. 17, No.2

(April 2006). 7. S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy

Data Book: Edition 25, ORNL-6974 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2006), Tables 3.1 and 3.2, web site http://cta.ornl.gov/data/ download25.shtml. 8. National Highways Authority of India, “About NHDP: NHDP Important Dates,” web site www.nhai.org. 9. “Beijing Intensifies Road Construction,” Xinhua

news agency, web site CHINAdaily.com.cn (Janu

ary 15, 2007). 10. S.C. Johnson, “Cruising the ‘7918 Network’ (China Plans National Expressway Network),” Electronic Business (August 1, 2006). 11. Global Insight, Inc., “China Regional—Analysis: Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region: Xinjiang Plans Major Roadway Initiative for 2007,” web site www.globalinsight.com (February 12, 2007).

# Chapter 3 

# Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels

World liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference case increases from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Two-thirds of the increment is projected for use in the transportation sector.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels 4 

### grows from 83 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 million in 2015 and 118 million in 2030. The demand for liquids increases strongly in the projections, despite world oil prices that remain above $49 per barrel5 

### throughout the period. Much of the overall increase in liquids consump

tion is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia, where strong economic growth is expected. To meet the increase in liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference case, liquids production is projected to increase by 14 million barrels per day from 2004 to 2015 and by an additional 20 million barrels per day from 2015 to 2030. OPEC producers 6 

### are expected to provide more than one-half of the additional production in 2015 (8 million barrels per day) and more than twothirds in 2030 (23 million barrels per day). In the reference case projections, sustained high world oil prices support a substantial increase in non-OPEC liquids production. Non-OPEC production in 2030 is projected to be 12 million barrels per day higher than in 2004, representing 35 percent of the increase in total world production over the 2004 total. The estimates of production increases are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ulti

mately recoverable petroleum, as well as the potential for unconventional liquids production. The world oil prices in the IEO2007 reference case—and in the high world oil price case—also are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventionalresources available. In 2004, world production of unconventional liquids totaled only 2.6 million barrels per day; in 2030, in the reference case, unconventional liquids production totals 10.5 million barrels per day (Figure 32) and accounts for nearly 9 percent of total world liquids production. 

# World Liquids Consumption World liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference case increases to 118 million barrels per day (239 qua

drillion Btu) in 2030, as the world continues to experi

ence strong economic growth. Two-thirds of the incre

ment in world liquids consumption in the reference case is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petro

leum (Figure 33). The industrial sector accounts for a 27-percent share of the projected increase, mostly for use in chemical and petrochemical processes. The largest increases in consumption between 2004 and 2030 are projected for North America and non-OECD Asia, at 7 and 15 million barrels per day, respectively (Figure 34). Outside North America, liquids consump

tion in the OECD regions generally grows more slowly,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 29 1980 1990 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day

Canadian Oil Sands Ultra-Heavy Crudes Biofuels Coal-to-Liquids Gas-to-Liquids Other History Projections 

### Figure 32. World Unconventional Liquids Production in the Reference Case, 1980-2030

Note: “Other” includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and Inter

national Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea.. Projections: EIA, System for the Anal

ysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

4 “World Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels” refers to all conventional crude oil and energy liquid substitutes (such as ethanol, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids), expressed in million barrels oil equivalent per day. Throughout this chapter, the term “liquids” is used to refer to petroleum and other liquid fuels. 5 All prices are in real 2005 dollars, unless otherwise noted. 6 Angola officially joined OPEC on February 1, 2007. In the remainder of this chapter, all references to OPEC include Angola. In addition, all time series have been updated to reflect country groupings as of March 1, 2007, so that Angola’s liquids production is included in the OPEC totals for 1980 through 2030. Angola’s production in 2030 is projected to be 3.1 million barrels per day.

### reflecting expectations of slow growth or declines in population and slow economic growth in most of the OECD nations over the next two decades.Strong expansion of liquids use is projected for the nonOECD countries, fueled by robust economic growth, burgeoning industrial activity, and rapidly expanding transportation use. The fastest growth in oil consump

tion is projected for the economies of non-OECD Asia, averaging 2.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. For the other non-OECD regions, annual consumption growth averages 1.0 percent in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2.1 percent in the Middle East, 2.3 percent in Central and South America, and 2.2 percent in Africa. Non-OECD Asia accounts for 43 percent of the overall increase in world liquids consumption, with projected increases of 6.5 million barrels per day from 2004 to 2015 and another 8.5 million barrels per day from 2015 to 2030. China, India, and the other nations of non-OECD Asia are expected to experience combined economic growth of 5.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, the highest rate among all the world regions. The robust expansion of GDP projected for non-OECD Asia contrib

utes to a 2.7-percent average annual increase in the region’s liquids use. 

# World Oil Prices The world oil price cases in this report are the same as those in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007. In the refer

ence case, world oil prices decline from $68 per barrel in 2006 to $49 per barrel in 2014, then rise to $59 per barrel in 2030 ($95 per barrel on a nominal basis). Total world liquids consumption rises to 118 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case. The low and high pricecases are included to illustrate uncertainties in the reference case projections (Figure 35). In the low price case, world oil prices are projected to be $36 per barrel in 2030 ($58 per barrel on a nominal basis). In the high price case, oil prices are projected to be $100 per barrel in 2030 ($157 per barrel on a nominal basis). The projections for totalliquids consumption in 2030 range from 103 million barrels per day in the high price case to 134 million barrels per day in the low price case, indicating the substantial range of uncertainty in the world’s future oil markets.

30 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 168 184 198 211 224 239

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 100 200 300 400 Quadrillion Btu

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electricity 

### Figure 33. World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

North America

Non-OECD Asia

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

Central and South America

Middle East Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 Million Barrels per Day 2004 2030 

### Figure 34. World Liquids Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 2005 Dollars per Barrel
High Oil Price

Low Oil Price Reference

History Projections 

### Figure 35. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Out

look 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007).

# World Liquids Production

In the IEO2007 reference case, world liquids production in 2030 exceeds the 2004 level by 35 million barrels per day (Figure 36). Increases in production are expected for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers; however, 65 per

cent of the total increase is expected to come from OPEC areas. In 2030, OPEC is expected to produce 57 million barrels per day and non-OPEC producers 61 million bar

rels per day in the reference case. Over the past two decades, the growth in non-OPEC liquids production has resulted in an OPEC market share substantially below its high of 52 percent in 1973. In 2004, OPEC pro

duced 41 percent of the world’s liquids supply. High oil prices, new exploration and production technologies, aggressive cost-reduction programs by industry, and the emergence of unconventional resources contribute to the outlook for continued growth in non-OPEC liquids production. The reference case outlook for liquids production was formulated in a two-stage approach. The mid-term pro

jections (through 2015) are based primarily on the current activities of the oil industry and national governments, including: current production volumes; recent rates of decline in output from producing fields; planned exploration, development, and enhanced oil recovery activities; country-specific policies and fiscal regimes; and current conflicts and social unrest that could interrupt production and make incremental investments more risky. After 2015, the reference case assumes that production decisions are made primarily on economic grounds, based on assessments of the resource base, with less weight placed on current politi

cal conditions.

The IEO2007 reference case projects greater reliance on OPEC oil supplies than was anticipated in last year’s outlook. In IEO2006 , OPEC’s total liquids production (excluding Angola) was projected to increase by nearly 15 million barrels per day from 2003 to 2030; in IEO2007, the projected increase in OPEC production (excluding Angola) is about 22 million barrels per day over the same period. An extensive review of anticipated invest

ment in exploration and production through 2015 was conducted for IEO2007 . As a result, the projections of non-OPEC supply from several key producers were lowered. However, the investment that several OPEC members (notably, Saudi Arabia and Angola) currently are making to expand their oil production capacity is expected to more than offset the slower expansion of non-OPEC supply projected in this year’s outlook. There are several regions where production is restrained through 2015 in the reference case. For instance, in the key resource-rich countries of Mexico and Venezuela, expected investment levels are lower than those assumed in the IEO2006 reference case. In both countries, liquids production is projected not to expand (and, in Mexico, to decline) until after 2015, when economic decisions on investment allow production to improve. Also, North Sea production is projected to decline more rapidly than in last year’s outlook. The rate of decline in North Sea production over recent years has been higher than observed in earlier years, and economics do not support a reversal of the declining trend in the IEO2007 reference case. In Iran and Iraq, political developments are assumed to keep production levels fairly flat until after 2015, when investment and production are pro

jected to grow strongly through 2030.

IEO2007 includes supply estimates for the low and high world oil price cases, based on the availability of world crude oil resources. In the high price case, worldwide crude oil resources are assumed to be 15 percent smaller and therefore more expensive to produce than in the ref

erence case, and the preferred production levels of OPEC producers are reduced. In the low price case, worldwide crude oil resources are assumed to be 15 per

cent larger and therefore less expensive therefore to pro

duce than in the reference case, and the preferred production levels of OPEC producers are increased. In each of three oil price cases, a business-as-usual oil mar

ket environment is assumed. The IEO2007 cases do not consider disruptions in oil production for any reason (war, terrorist activity, weather, geopolitics).
Non-OPEC Production The world oil prices projected in the IEO2007 reference case allow non-OPEC suppliers to expand their pro

duction through 2030. Non-OPEC production increases

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 31 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 25 50 75 100 125 Million Barrels per Day History Projections

Non-OPEC Conventional Total

OPEC Conventional

Non-OPEC Unconventional OPEC Unconventional 

### Figure 36. OPEC and Non-OPEC Conventional and Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and Inter

national Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea.. Projections: EIA, System for the Anal

ysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### steadily in the projections, from 49 million barrels per day in 2004 to 61 million barrels per day in 2030, as high prices attract investment in areas previously considered uneconomical. The non-OPEC market share in 2030, however, at 52 percent of the world’s liquids produc

tion, is lower than its 2004 share of 59 percent. Non-OPEC conventional liquids production in the refer

ence case increases from 47 million barrels per day in 2004 to 51 million barrels per day in 2015 and 53 million barrels per day in 2030, and unconventional liquids pro

duction from non-OPEC suppliers rises to 4 million bar

rels per day in 2015 and 8 million barrels per day in 2030. In the high world oil price case, non-OPEC unconven

tional liquids production rises to 11 million barrels per day in 2030, as compared with 4 million barrels per day in 2030 in the low price case, where most unconven

tional liquids are not economically competitive. North Sea production is projected to decline more rap

idly in the IEO2007 reference case than was projected in IEO2006 . Production from Norway, OECD Europe’s largest producer, appears to have peaked at about 3.4million barrels per day in 2001, and it is projected to continue declining to about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2030 as the larger and older fields mature. Production from the United Kingdom, which peaked in 1999 at 3.0 million barrels per day, is projected to fall to 0.5 million barrels per day in 2030. Oil production in the non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region is projected to reach nearly 15.0 million barrels per day in 2015, based in large part on the potential investment outlook for the Caspian Basin region, where long-term production potential still is regarded with considerable optimism. Caspian output more than dou

bles from the 2004 level to 4.3 million barrels per day in 2015 in the reference case and increases steadily thereaf

ter. Current uncertainty about export routes from the Caspian Basin region is assumed to be resolved. North African producers Egypt and Tunisia produce mainly from mature fields, and the IEO2007 reference case assumes few additions to resources in the future. As a result, their production volumes decline gradually in the projections. In East Africa, Sudan is expected to pro

duce significant volumes by the end of this decade, with the potential to exceed 700,000 barrels per day in 2010. Eritrea, Somalia, and South Africa also have some resource potential, but they are not expected to produce significant volumes until late in the projections. Several West African producers—Cameroon, Chad, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mauri

tania, Niger, Sao Tome and Principe, and Ivory Coast— are expected to reap the benefits of substantial explora

tion activity, especially if current high oil prices persist. West African producers with offshore tracts are expected to increase output by up to 1.1 million barrels per day by the end of the projection period. Oil producers in the Pacific Rim are expected to increase their production volumes as a result of enhanced explo

ration and extraction technologies. India’s deepwater prospects are expected to show some encouraging pro

duction increases in this decade, with the potential for significant increases near the end of the projection period. China’s conventional oil production is projected to decline slightly, to about 3.3 million barrels per day in 2030. Vietnam’s long-term production potential is viewed with considerable optimism, although explora

tion activity has been slower than originally anticipated. Output from Vietnamese fields is projected to reach 504,000 barrels per day in 2015. Malaysia is not expected to find significant new reserves; its output has already peaked and is expected to decline gradually through the end of the projection period, to less than 500,000 barrels per day in 2030. Papua New Guinea continues to add to its proved reserves and is expected to achieve production volumes approaching 110,000 barrels per day in 2015, followedby only a modest decline over the remainder of the projection period. Exploration and test-well activity have pointed to some production potential for Bangladesh and Myanmar (formerly Burma), but significant output is not expected until after 2010. In North America, U.S. output that rises to 10.1 million barrels per day in 2020 and remains fairly flat through the end of the projection period is expected to be supple

mented by significant production increases in Canada. Canada’s conventional oil output contracts steadily in the reference case, by about 0.5 million barrels per day over the next 25 years, but an additional 2.5 million bar

rels per day of unconventional output from oil sands projects more than offsets the decline in conventional supplies. Since the publication of IEO2006 , Mexico’s state oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), has announced annual production decline rates of 14 per

cent in its largest oil field at Cantarell [ 1 ]. The IEO2007 reference case does not anticipate adequate investments through 2015, and as a result, production in Mexico is projected to fall to 3.0 million barrels per day in 2015 (see box on page 33). IEO2007 assumes that declining reve

nue from oil production in Mexico ultimately will encourage government action to increase investment and technology access in the petroleum sector after 2015. Given the country’s available resource base, such action eventually should reverse the decline in production. Liquids producers in South America have potential for increasing output over the next decade. Brazil became a million barrel per day producer of crude oil in 1999, with considerable production potential waiting to be tapped. Brazil’s production rises throughout the projection

32 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 33 

### Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico Projections for Mexico’s crude oil production in IEO2007 are much lower than those in IEO2006 . In last year’s outlook, oil production in Mexico was projected to increase steadily, to 5.0 million barrels per day in 2030, despite an anticipated decline in production from the country’s largest oil field, Cantarell (see map on page 34). a 

### IEO2007, instead, projects a decline to 3.0 million barrels per day in 2012, followed by a gradual recovery to 3.5 million barrels per day in 2030. The new assessment reflects the anticipated decline in Cantarell production, assumptions about announced projects and recent discoveries, and long-term assumptions about economic motivations and national oil industry policy that better reflect the country’s production potential. Cantarell is, by far, Mexico’s most important oil field today. In 2004, Cantarell held more than 26 percent of Mexico’s total remaining oil reserves and produced 2.1 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 61 percent of the country’s total crude oil output. b 

### Since its peak production in 2004, Cantarell has been in decline. According to Lui Ramirez Corzo, the former president of Pemex, the Cantarell decline rate is likely to average 14 percent per year from 2007 to 2015, implying that Pemex will have to develop other fields if it is to offset the decline. c

### Crude oil production from the KMZ complex—consisting of the Ku, Maloob, and Zaap fields—has been discussed as a possible new source of liquids production. There have been reports that the complex could pro

duce enough crude oil to compensate for the yearly reduction in production from Cantarell. d 

### In 2005, the combined production of the KMZ fields was just 316 thousand barrels per day, or about 16 percent of Cantarell’s production in the same year; however, Pemex has estimated that KMZ could produce 800 thousand barrels per day by 2008. Achieving that goal would require 35-percent annual increases in produc

tion from KMZ from 2006 to 2008. Although increasing crude oil production at KMZ would lessen the degree to which the Cantarell decline affects Mexico’s total output of crude oil over the next few years, total proved ultimately recoverable reserves at the complex are only 21 percent as large as those at Cantarell. Consequently, KMZ production cannot be sustained at the levels necessary to counteract Cantarell’s decline in the long run. If Cantarell does decline at the expected rate, production at the KMZ complex would have to increase by about 17 percent per year to offset the lost production. Since 1993, when the three major fields at KMZ came on line, annual pro

duction increases have averaged 4 percent—signifi

cantly less than would be necessary to maintain Mexico’s current level of output. The IEO2007 refer

ence case projects modest growth for KMZ production as a result of nitrogen injection. The Tabasco state, containing the Jujo and Tecomino

acan fields, is also frequently mentioned as an oilproducing region with the potential to compensate for some of Cantarell’s decline; however, the two fields have combined proven ultimate recoverable reserves of only 1,690 million barrels, or 11 percent the size of Cantarell. In addition, their production levels have been declining for almost two decades, and in 2005 they produced a combined total of only 72 thousand barrels per day. Pemex has announced plans to increase production from the Jujo and Tecominoacan fields significantly by using nitrogen injection, but even with enhanced recovery, it is unlikely that their output will be sufficient to slow the rate of decline in Mexico’s total crude oil output beyond the short term. The most promising possibility for offsetting the impact of Cantarell’s decline on the rest of Mexico’s crude oil production is deepwater production in the Gulf of Mexico, where recent discoveries include Chuktah-201, Nab-1, Noxal-1, and Lacach-1 (still under construction). Production levels from the deep

water fields will depend on Pemex’s financial ability to implement the technology needed to access them. To date, the deepest production achieved by Pemex has been 3,068 feet. Lacach-1 is planned to reach 3,241 feet. e 

### In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, however, drilling depths routinely exceed 6,500 feet and can be more than 9,800 feet. Pemex has been discussing the possibility of service contracts with foreign oil companies that have experi

ence in exploring deepwater reserves, but agreements have yet to be reached. So far, the service agreements (continued on page 34)

aThe Cantarell complex comprises the Akal, Nohoch, Chac, Akal, Kutz, Ixtoc, and Sihil fields. The largest, Akal, produced 2,079 thou

sand barrels per day or 90 percent of Cantarell’s crude production in 2004.

b I.H.S. Energy database. Unless otherwise noted, all data cited in this text box were obtained or derived from the I.H.S. Energy database.

cA. Harrup, “Pemex CEO Says Cantarell Decline by Average of 14 Percent per Year,” Dow Jones Newswires (November 16, 2006). dPemex Online, Investor Relations, "Issues Related to the Cantarell Complex," (August 12, 2005), web site http://www.pemex.com/ index.cfm?action=content§ionID=8&catID=428&subcatID=3679.

ePemex Online, web site www.pemex.com/files/content/dcf_ccw_0609_i_061105.pdf.34 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico (Continued)

offered by Pemex would return set fees to foreign com

panies rather than allowing them to own shares of the oil produced or discovered, because a clause in the Mexican constitution bars foreign investment in the oil industry. Although the clause has allowed Pemex to maintain ownership of all its oil reserves, it also has prevented it from benefiting from technological advances that have allowed other national and major independent oil companies to improve their produc

tion opportunities. Promising deepwater discoveries in the Gulf are taken into consideration in this year’s assessment of Mexico’s oil production potential; however, the IEO2007 refer

ence case assumes a considerable time lag between the discoveries and the date when Pemex will have the technology necessary to develop the fields effectively, based on assumptions both about the technology and about the financial resources available to exploit the deepwater resources. Pemex spent about $4.5 billion on deepwater exploration from 2000 to 2004, and it esti

mates that an additional $15 billion will be needed over the next 15 years to continue their development. Other estimates of the necessary capital investment are as high as $10 billion annually. Financial resource estimates affect not only the IEO

2007 assumptions about Mexico’s deepwater resource development but also the assumptions about Pemex’s general exploration and development programs. Although Pemex increased the amount of funding allocated to exploration and development programs in 2005, it spent only $10.3 billion in 2004 and $10.5 bil

lion in 2005. f 

### By some estimates, Pemex may need to invest as much as $32 billion annually in exploration and development to prevent a sharp decline in oil production. g,h 

### The lack of available funds is largely (continued on page 35)

fPemex Online, Investor Relations, "Annual Report 2005: Business Highlights," web site www.pemex.com/files/dcf/ Businesshighlights2005.pdf. Assumed conversion rate is $0.09147 per peso.

gA. Harrup, “Pemex CEO Says Cantarell Decline by Average of 14 Percent per Year,” Dow Jones Newswires (November 16, 2006). hC. Bremer, “Analysis—Mexico Seen Struggling To Stem Oil Output Decline,” World Oil Market Update (January 18, 2007). Inter-American Highway 

### UNITED STATES

GUATEMALA BELIZE

HONDURAS Mexico CIty 

## Mexico Area of Detail 

### Zaap Ku

Abkatun Akal (Cantarell) Maloob

Chuc Caan

0

0 100 200

100 200 300 Kilometers

300 Miles Roads Rivers 

### Mexico’s Major Southern Offshore Oil Fields

Source: I.H.S. Energy Database, web site http://energy.ihs.com.

### period, to 3.9 million barrels per day of conventional production and 0.5 million barrels per day of unconven

tional production in 2030. Colombia’s current economic downturn and civil unrest have delayed development of its oil production infrastructure, but its output is expected to reach 700,000 barrels per day in 2015, with continued modest increases over the remainder of theprojection period. Although the current political situation in Ecuador is in transition, there is still optimism that Ecuador will increase production volumes over the projection period.

OPEC Production It is generally acknowledged that OPEC members with large reserves and relatively low costs for expanding production capacity can accommodate sizable increases in the world’s petroleum consumption. In the IEO2007 reference case, the production call on OPEC suppliers grows at an annual rate of 2.0 percent through 2030 (Figure 37). Amidst enormous uncertainty, Iraq’s role in OPEC in the next several years will be of particular interest. In 1999, Iraq expanded its production capacity to 2.8 mil

lion barrels per day in order to reach the maximum export revenue (slightly more than $5.2 billion) allowed under United Nations Security Council resolutions. Iraq’s oil production capacity in 2007 is assumed to be 2.0 million barrels per day [ 2 ]. Iraq has indicated a desire to expand production aggressively, to more than 6 million barrels per day, once the security and political situation in the country has stabilized. Preliminary dis

cussions of exploration projects have already been held with a number of potential outside investors. In the IEO2007 reference case, Iraq’s oil production is projected to reach 3.3 million barrels per day in 2015 and 5.3 mil

lion barrels per day in 2030. Oil production in Iran is projected to increase only slightly in the early years of the reference case, from 4.1 million barrels per day in 2004 to 4.3 million barrels per day in 2015, despite the country’s sizable resource base. In the long run, Iran’s oil production is projected to reach 5.0 million barrels per day in 2030. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) areexpected to follow similar growth paths in their oil production sectors. In 2004, levels of production from the two countries were 2.5 and 2.8 million barrels per day, respectively; in 2015, they are projected to be 3.2 and 3.8 million barrels per day, respectively; and in 2030 they

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 35 

### Reassessing the Potential for Oil Production in Mexico (Continued) attributed to the redirection of company profits by the Mexican Congress to support government programs. Mexico’s Congress annually approves the funding for and taxation of Pemex, incorporating the expenses and revenues into the national budget. Although Pemex typically has shown a net profit before taxes in recent years, the government has not returned sufficient reve

nues to the company for it to book a net profit after taxes. Between 2001 and 2005, taxes on Pemex opera

tions averaged $3.8 billion more than its pre-tax income. As a result, Pemex has been unable independ

ently to increase investment in exploration.
IEO2007 assumes that the trend of heavy taxation and minimal government financial support for expanding exploration activities will continue in the near term. Thus, over the period from 2006 to 2015, the reference case projects an annual decline in Mexico’s oil produc

tion. After 2015, it is assumed that changes in current oil industry regulations, whether they concern taxation rates or rules about foreign investment in the sector, will be made when the country suffers a significant loss of profits from declining oil production. The current assumptions incorporate several different time lags for the implementation of new investment policies and the impact of increased funding for exploration and devel

opment. A 4-year delay, based on the world average, is incorporated into the long-term outlook for production increases after a significant increase in funding for exploration and development funding.

1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Billion Barrels History Projections

Non-OPEC Total

OPEC 

### Figure 37. Cumulative World Production of Crude Oil and Lease Condensates in the Reference Case, 1980-2030

Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006), and Inter

national Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### are projected to be 4.1 and 4.9 million barrels per day, respectively. Qatar’s production is projected to grow from 1.0 million barrels per day in 2004 to 2.9 million barrels per day in 2030, with liquids other than crude oil expected to provide more than half the increase. In the past, Saudi Arabia—with its very low develop

ment and production costs per barrel of output—has maintained 1 to 5 million barrels per day of spare pro

duction capacity, which has given it considerable mar

ket power. It is expected to maintain average spare capacity of 1 to 2 million barrels per day in the future. In the reference case, Saudi Arabia’s production is pro

jected to be 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015 and 16.4 million barrels per day in 2030. Angola became a 1.1 million barrel per day producer in 2004, and the results of deepwater exploration indicate that its production could increase to as much as 4.0 mil

lion barrels per day by 2030. The rapid increase in Angola’s production demonstrates the importance of political stability, international investment, and technol

ogy advances. Angola’s oil production languished for the most part during a 20-year civil war, which ended in 2003. It was not until the late 1990s, when prospects for a peaceful resolution were taking shape, that the foreign investment needed to support offshore production began to materialize. Angola’s decision to join OPEC in January 2007 is not expected to slow the increase in its oil production, given that other OPEC members were granted some flexibility while they were rapidly expanding their production.

In the IEO2007 reference case, OPEC members outside the Persian Gulf (excluding Angola) are projected to increase their production capacity only moderately, in part because of the relatively high cost of capacity expansion in most of the member countries. There is some optimism surrounding Nigeria’s potential for off

shore production. For Algeria and Libya, the reference case projects an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in their combined liquids production from 2004 to 2015, but after 2015 it is projected to remain fairly flat. Indone

sia’s production is expected to decline over the projec

tion period, and Venezuela is expected to see some increase in production after 2015. Tables G1-G9 in Appendix G show the ranges of production potential for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Geopolitical issues in a number of the OPEC countries, including Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria, make it dif

ficult to estimate future production levels. As a result, there is a high level of uncertainty associated with the reference case assumptions and projections for OPEC production through 2030. The IEO2007 high price case provides one scenario in which OPEC limits production. Assuming lower avail

ability of non-OPEC conventional resources, OPEC would be able to exercise greater influence on oil prices. Production of both OPEC and non-OPEC conventional liquids is projected to increase in the high price case, but at a slower rate than projected in the reference case. Because higher prices would make more unconven

tional liquids production economically competitive, non-OPEC liquids production is projected to be nearly the same in the reference and high price cases, with unconventional liquids replacing most of the reduction in conventional production that is projected in the high world oil price case.

The IEO2007 low price case assumes greater availability of non-OPEC conventional resources than in the refer

ence case. Oil prices fall as non-OPEC production expands, and OPEC producers must increase produc

tion to meet their revenue requirements. As a result, OPEC’s options for influencing the market are limited. In the low price case, OPEC production is projected to be about the same as in the reference case, but with lower total revenues. 

# Oil Reserves and ResourcesHistorically, estimates of world oil reserves have generally trended upward (Figure 38) [ 3 ]. As of January 1, 2007, proved world oil reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas Journal, 7 

### were estimated at 1,317 billion barrels—24 billion barrels (about 2 percent) higher than the estimate

36 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 200 7 0 500 1,000 1,500 Billion Barrels

OPEC Middle East

Non-OPEC OPEC Total World Total 

### Figure 38. World Crude Oil Reserves, 1980-2007

Note: Reserves include crude oil (including lease conden

sates) and natural gas plant liquids.

Sources: 1980-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,” International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Publishing, various issues). 1994-2007: Oil & Gas Journal (various issues).

7 Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and prices. Oil reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the most recent changes. Changes made to individual countries’ reserves during 2006 are not likely to be reflected in the reserves reported here.

### for 2006 [ 4 ] (Table 3). In addition to growth in remaining oil reserves, production from conventional crude oil and condensate reserves, natural gas plant liquids, Canadian oil sands, and Venezuelan ultra-heavy oil during 2006 were estimated to be 30 billion barrels. Taken together, the reserve increases and production imply that 54 bil

lion barrels of reserve discoveries and growth occurred during 2006, or an increase of about 4 percent. Reserve estimates for oil, natural gas, and coal are diffi

cult to develop. EIA develops estimates of reserves for the United States but not for foreign countries. As a con

venience to the public, EIA makes available global reserve estimates from the Oil & Gas Journal, World Oil, and BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, and uses the data in its analyses. Proved reserves of crude oil are the estimated quantities that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty can be recovered in future years from known reservoirs, assuming existing economic and operating conditions. Companies whose stocks are publicly traded on U.S. stock markets are required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to report their holdings of domestic and international proved reserves, following specific guidelines. Country-level estimates of proved reserves are developed from the data reported to the SEC, from foreign government reports, and from international geologic assessments. Estimates are not always updated annually, and some countries invest in exploration only to maintain a target level of proved reserves. Thus, historical data series may be relatively flat over some periods, with sudden jumps in others. Since 2000, the largest net increase in estimated proved oil reserves has been made in Canada, with the addition of 174 billion barrels of Canadian oil sands as a conven

tional reserve. 8 

### Iranian oil reserves have increased by 46.6 billion barrels, or 52 percent, since 2000. Kazakhstan has had the third-largest increase, 24.6 billion barrels, since 2000. The 10 countries with the largest net increases in reserves between 2000 and 2007 are listed in Table 4. According to Oil & Gas Journal, 56 percent of the world’s total proved oil reserves are located in the Mid

dle East (Figure 39). Among the top 20 reserve holders in 2007, 11 are OPEC member countries that, together, account for 65 percent of the world’s total reserves

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 37 

### Table 3. World Oil Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007 (Billion Barrels) Country Oil Reserves Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 262.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179.2 Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.3 Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115.0 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.5 United Arab Emirates. . . . . 97.8 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.0 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.5 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.2 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.0 United States . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 Rest of World . . . . . . . . . . . 65.5 World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,317.4 “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25. 

### Table 4. World Oil Reserves: Ten Largest Gains and Losses, 2000-2007, by Country (Billion Barrels) Country Change in Oil Reserves Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174.3 Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.6 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 Romania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.8 Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.0 Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.1 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . -1.2 United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . -1.3 Australia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.3 Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -2.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -8.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -16.0 “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.

8 As reported by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy classifies roughly 12 billion bar

rels of oil sands as reserves, based on the amount that is “under active development.”

### (Table 3). The largest declines in oil reserves between 2000 and 2007 were reported in Mexico (16.0 billion bar

rels), China (8.0 billion barrels), Norway (2.9 billion bar

rels), Australia (1.3 billion barrels), and the United Kingdom (1.3 billion barrels). The most common measure of the adequacy of provedreserves relative to annual production is the reserve-toproduction (r/p) ratio, which describes the number of years of remaining production from current proved reserves at current production rates. For the past 25 years, the U.S. r/p ratio has been between 9 and 12 years, and the top 40 countries in conventional crude oil pro

duction rarely have reported r/p ratios below 8 years. The major oil-producing countries of OPEC have main

tained r/p ratios of 20 to 100 years (Table 5). 

# References

38 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### 1. T. Murray, “Pemex To Fund Increased Share of

Capital Spending from Operating Cashflow,” The Oil Daily, Vol. 56, No. 100 (May 25, 2006), p. 4. 2. International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report

(Paris, France, May 2006), p. 14, web site http:// omrpublic.iea.org. 3. Energy Information Administration, “International

Petroleum (Oil) Reserves and Resources,” web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/ oilreserves.html. 4. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil

& Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25. 739

213

114

103

100

33

15 Middle East

North America

Africa

Central and South America

Eurasia

Asia
Europe

0 200 400 600 800
Billion Barrels World Total: 1,317 Billion Barrels 

### Figure 39. World Proved Oil Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal , Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.


### Table 5. World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production and Reserve-To-Production Ratios by Country, 2005

Country 2005 Production (Million Barrels per Day) 2005 Share of World Production (Percent) Reserve-to-Production Ratio (Years) Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.55 13.3 75 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.04 12.6 18 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.18 7.2 11 Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.14 5.7 83 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 5.0 14 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.33 4.6 12 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.70 3.7 9 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.63 3.6 37 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . 2.54 3.5 106 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.53 3.5 110 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.98 2.7 107 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.88 2.6 168 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.80 2.5 18 United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . 1.65 2.3 7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.3 18 Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.3 65 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.28 1.8 10 Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.26 1.7 12 Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.07 1.5 12 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.05 1.5 23 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.84 1.2 50 Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.77 1.1 19 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.75 1.0 11 Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.70 1.0 10 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.66 0.9 22 Sources: 2005 Production: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2006). Reserves: “World

wide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal , Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 24-25.

# Chapter 4 

# Natural Gas

In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows more than twice as fast as in the OECD countries. Production increases in the non-OECD region account for more than 90 percent of the growth in world production from 2004 to 2030.

Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases from 100 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 163 trillion cubic feet in 2030 in the IEO2007 reference case (Figure 40). By energy source, the projected increase in natural gas consump

tion is second only to coal. Natural gas remains a key fuel in the electric power and industrial sectors. In the power sector, natural gas is an attractive choice for new generating plants because of its relative fuel efficiency. Natural gas also burns more cleanly than coal or petro

leum products, and as more governments begin imple

menting national or regional plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, they may encourage the use of natu

ral gas to displace liquids and coal.Much of the world’s natural gas use is for industrial sector processes. The industrial sector accounted for 44 percent of world natural gas consumption in 2004 and is projected to account for 43 percent in 2030. With world oil prices expected to remain high relative to historical levels throughout the projection period, natural gas is projected to displace liquids in the industrial sector to some extent. Industrial use of natural gas is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2004 to 2030, as compared with an average increase of 1.1 percent per year for liquids consumption in the industrial sector. In 2004, OECD member countries accounted for justover one-half of the world’s total natural gas use, nonOECD Europe and Eurasia accounted for one-quarter, and the other non-OECD countries accounted for the remainder (Figure 41). In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries grows more than twice as fast as consumption in the OECD countries, with 2.6-percent average annual growth from 2004 to 2030 for non-OECD countries, com

pared with an average of 1.2 percent for the OECD coun

tries. Natural gas demand in the non-OECD countries accounts for 71 percent of the total world increment in natural gas consumption over the projection period. In the non-OECD countries (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia) natural gas use increases from less than one-quarter of the world total in 2004 to 35 percent in 2030. The OECD countries accounted for 40 percent of the world’s total natural gas production and 52 percent of total natural gas consumption in 2004; in 2030, they are projected to account for only 27 percent of production and 43 percent of consumption. Natural gas production in the OECD nations increases by an average of only 0.4 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, whereas their demand increases by 1.2 percent per year. As a

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 39 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 50 100 150 200 Trillion Cubic Feet

Industrial Electric Power Other 

### Figure 40. World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 25 50 75 100 Trillion Cubic Feet
OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Other Non-OECD 

### Figure 41. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### result, the OECD countries are projected to rely increas

ingly on imports to meet natural gas demand, with a growing percentage of traded natural gas coming in the form of LNG. In 2030, more than one-third of the natural gas consumed in OECD countries is projected to come from other parts of the world, up from 22 percent in 2004. 

# Reserves and Resources Historically, world natural gas reserves have, for the most part, trended upward (Figure 42). As of January 1, 2007, proved world natural gas reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas Journal, 9 

### were estimated at 6,183 trillion cubic feet—71 trillion cubic feet (about 1 percent) higher than the estimate for 2006 [ 1 ]. The largest revisions to natural gas reserve estimates were reported for Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and China. Kazakhstan added an estimated 35 trillion cubic feet (a 54-percent increase over 2006 proved reserves), Turkmenistan 29 trillion cubic feet (41 percent), and China 27 trillion cubic feet (50 percent). The United States also reported an increase of 12 trillion cubic feet over its 2006 reserves—a 6-percent increase and the largest increment in U.S. annual reserves since 1970. Declines in natural gas reserves were reported for theNetherlands (a decrease of 12 trillion cubic feet), Trinidad and Tobago (7 trillion cubic feet), Argentina (3 trillion cubic feet), Nigeria (3 trillion cubic feet), and Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia (about 2 trillion cubic feet each). Almost three-quarters of the world’s natural gas reserves are located in the Middle East and Eurasia (Figure 43). Russia, Iran, and Qatar combined accounted for about 58 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves as of January 1, 2007 (Table 6). Reserves in the rest of the world are fairly evenly distributed on a regional basis. Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consump

tion, particularly over the past decade, most regional reserves-to-production ratios are substantial. World

wide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated at 65 years [ 2 ]. Central and South America has a reserves-toproduction ratio of about 52 years, Russia 80 years, and Africa 88 years. The Middle East’s reserves-to-produc

tion ratio exceeds 100 years. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses the long-term production potential of worldwide petro

leum resources (oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids). According to the most recent USGS estimates, released in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and adjusted to reflect current proved reserves, a significant volume ofnatural gas remains to be discovered. Worldwide undiscovered natural gas is estimated at 4,136 trillion cubic feet (Figure 44). Within the total natural gas resource base, an estimated 3,000 trillion cubic feet is in “stranded” reserves, usually located too far away from

40 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Trillion Cubic Feet

OECD Total

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Other Non-OECD 

### Figure 42. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, 1980-2007

Sources: 1980-1993: “Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance,” International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Publishing, various issues). 1994-2007: Oil & Gas Journal (various issues). 2,566

2,017

484

419

277

241

179 Middle East

Eurasia

Africa

Asia

North America

Central and South America
Europe
0 1,000 2,000 3,00 0 Trillion Cubic Feet World Total: 6,183 Trillion Cubic Feet 

### Figure 43. World Natural Gas Reserves by Geographic Region as of January 1, 2007

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal , Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23.

9 Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and prices. Natural gas reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the most recent changes. U.S. proved reserves of natural gas are reported by the Energy Information Administration and are defined as the esti

mated quantities of natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2006, which analysis of geological and engineering data demonstrate with rea

sonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. Significant natural gas discoveries made in 2006 are not likely to be reflected in the reported reserves.

### pipeline infrastructure or population centers for its transportation to be economical. Of the new natural gas resources expected to be added through 2025, reserve growth accounts for 2,347 trillion cubic feet. 

# World Natural Gas Supply

Production increases in the non-OECD countries are projected to account for more than 90 percent of the world’s total growth in production from 2004 to 2030 (Figure 45). In the non-OECD countries, production is projected to grow by an average 2.6 percent per year, from 59 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 119 trillion cubic feet in 2030. In particular, Russia and the Middle East each account for around 20 percent of the increase in annual production over the projection period. Both regions are expected to provide connections to natural gas markets in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, with Russia exporting mainly by pipeline and most Middle East exports being shipped as LNG. Russia has an extensive pipeline network reaching into Europe and has proposed the construction of pipelines to China and South Korea. In addition, Russia is beginning to enter LNG markets. It has traded pipeline gas for Atlantic LNG cargos, has plans to develop LNG export facilities to serve the Atlantic market, and soon will start exporting LNG from its Pacific coast. The Middle East already exports significant quantities of LNG to customers in both the Atlantic and Pacific bas

ins. In 2005, 15 percent of the LNG exports from the region went to North America and Europe and 85 per

cent to Asia. Qatar has several LNG export projects under construction that are targeted for sales to North

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 41 

### Table 6. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2007

Country Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet) Percent of World Total
World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,183 100.0 Top 20 Countries. . . . . . . . 5,602 90.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,680 27.2 Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 974 15.8 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 911 14.7 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 240 3.9 United Arab Emirates . . . . 214 3.5 United States. . . . . . . . . . . 204 3.3 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 2.9 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 2.6 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 2.5 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 1.8 Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 1.6 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 1.6 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 1.3 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 1.3 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 1.2 Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 1.1 Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 0.9 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 0.9 Rest of World. . . . . . . . . . . 581 9.4 Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal , Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23. 000 2,347 6,183

4,136

Proven Reserves Undiscovered Natural Gas Reserve Growth 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Trillion Cubic Feet

Middle East Eurasia Africa Asia North America Central/South America Europe 

### Figure 44. World Natural Gas Resources by Geographic Region, 2006-2025

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 , web site http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/ WorldEnergy/DDS-60; “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Pro

duction,” Oil & Gas Journal , Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23; and Energy Information Administration esti

mates.

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 50 100 150 200 Trillion Cubic Feet

OECD Russia Middle East Other Non-OECD 

### Figure 45. World Natural Gas Production by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### America and Europe. In December 2006, however, Qatar announced that the LNG from one project originally tar

geted for Atlantic buyers had been sold to Asian buyers in the Pacific basin. Africa and non-OECD Asia (excluding China and India) are expected to be important sources of natural gas pro

duction in the future. For each of the two regions, natu

ral gas production in 2030 is projected to be some 10 trillion cubic feet above 2004 production levels. The two regions combined accounted for 14 percent of the world’s natural gas production in 2004; in 2030, their combined share is projected to be 21 percent. A signifi

cant portion of the production from both regions is exported. In 2004, 26 percent of the natural gas produc

tion from the countries of non-OECD Asia (primarily from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar [for

merly Burma]) and 50 percent of the production from African countries was for export. In 2030, the export share of production from non-OECD Asia is projected to fall to 10 percent, as domestic consumption takes prece

dence over exports, whereas the export share of Africa’s production is projected to increase. Several pipelines from North Africa to Europe are under consideration, and LNG export capacity in West Africa continues to expand. Historically, the United States has been both the largest producer and the largest consumer of natural gas in North America, and Canada has been the primarysource of U.S. natural gas imports. In 2004, Canada provided 85 percent of gross U.S. imports of natural gas. Although Canada’s unconventional and Arctic produc

tion both are expected to increase over the projection period, and LNG imports into Eastern Canada are expected to begin by the end of the decade, those supply increases are not expected to be sufficient to offset a decline in conventional production in Canada’s largest producing basin, the Western Sedimentary Basin. Gross U.S. imports of LNG are projected to exceed gross pipe

line imports from Canada after 2015, and Canada’s share of gross U.S. imports is projected to decline to 25 percent in 2030. Rising natural gas prices are expected to make it eco

nomical for two major North American pipelines that have long been in the planning stages to come online. The first, a Canadian pipeline to transport natural gas from the MacKenzie Delta, is expected to become opera

tional in 2012. The second, an Alaska pipeline, is expected to begin transporting natural gas from Alaska to the lower 48 States in 2018, contributing significantly to U.S. domestic supply. Alaska’s natural gas produc

tion accounts for all of the projected growth in domestic U.S. conventional natural gas production from 2004 to 2030, with flows on the Alaska pipeline increasing to 2.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030. As a result, Alaskan production is projected to account for 22 percent of the increase in U.S. natural gas supply in 2030 relative to the 2004 total. A large portion of North America’s remaining techni

cally recoverable resource base of natural gas consists of unconventional sources, which include tight sands, shale, and coalbed methane. With most of the large onshore conventional fields in the United States already having been discovered, the United States, like Canada, must look to these costlier sources of supply to make up for declines in conventional production. Unconven

tional production, especially from tight sands forma

tions, is expected to be a significant source of U.S. incremental supply, increasing from 40 percent of total domestic production in 2004 to 50 percent in 2030 and accounting for 28 percent of the increase in U.S. natural gas supply in 2030 relative to the 2004 total. By far the largest source of U.S. incremental natural gas supply (50 percent of the increase in 2030 relative to 2004) is expected to be LNG. Currently, the United States has five LNG import facilities in operation with a total peak capacity slightly above 5.8 billion cubic feet per day. Four additional facilities are under construction inthe Gulf of Mexico. When completed, the four new terminals will more than double U.S. LNG import capacity.Peak annual U.S. LNG import capacity in 2030 is projected to reach 6.5 trillion cubic feet, with actual imports of 4.5 trillion cubic feet (Figure 46). The growth of U.S. LNG imports is expected to be strong through most of the projection period. The significant

42 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 Trillion Cubic Feet

Overseas LNG

Canada

Mexico History Projections 

### Figure 46. U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas by Source, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2005 , DOE/EIA-0384(2005) (Washing

ton, DC, August 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www. eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.

### growth in U.S. LNG imports is indicative of the coun

try’s growing dependence on imports and the increasing globalization of natural gas markets. The emerging LNG markets in Canada and Mexico, both of which have facil

ities either in operation (in Altamira, Mexico) or under construction, also highlight this trend. Mexico has significant untapped reserves of natural gas, but the Mexican government does not have the resources needed to develop them and to date has been relatively unsuccessful in attracting foreign capital. Cur

rently, only the state oil and natural gas company, Pemex, is allowed to have any ownership interest in Mexico’s oil and natural gas reserves, which makes par

ticipation in the development of Mexico’s oil and gas resources unattractive to foreign investors. Outside North America, the Australia/New Zealand OECD region is projected to see the most rapid expan

sion of natural gas production among all the world regions (but starting from a much lower point than many other producing regions). Production in Austra

lia/New Zealand is projected to grow by an average of 4.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 7), and most of the increase is expected to be used for LNG exports. Australia currently has 0.75 trillion cubic feet of LNG export capacity from five liquefaction trains, including four at the Northwest Shelf project and one at the Darwin project that began operation in February 2006. More than 2.5 trillion cubic feet per year of addi

tional LNG liquefaction capacity has been proposed. The Australia/New Zealand region is projected to account for 5 percent of the growth in world natural gas

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 43 

### Table 7. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet)

Region/Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030
OECD North America. . . . . . . . . 26.9 28.1 28.2 29.3 29.2 29.6 0.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.0 19.5 19.7 20.9 20.7 20.7 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.9 6.0 -0.3 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.7 10.5 10.1 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.3

Total OECD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.9 42.0 42.5 43.8 44.1 44.5 0.4 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 28.6 33.2 36.4 39.5 42.4 45.2 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.4 24.9 27.4 30.0 32.6 35.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 8.3 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.0 1.8 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 13.6 16.4 19.1 22.2 25.2 3.3

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 3.5 Other non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.6 11.5 13.5 15.8 18.4 3.1 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 13.8 17.4 20.1 21.8 24.1 3.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 7.8 9.5 11.1 13.0 15.1 4.0 Central and South America. . . . 4.5 5.8 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.2 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 4.1 Other Central /South America . . 4.2 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.2 2.5

Total Non-OECD. . . . . . . . . . . 58.9 74.3 86.7 97.4 107.8 118.8 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 116.3 129.2 141.2 151.9 163.3 1.9

a Includes supplemental production or forecast discrepancy. For details, see Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , p. 159, Table A13, “Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices.” Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: 2004: EIA, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: United States: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/
aeo. Others: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### production from 2004 to 2030 and 3 percent of total pro

duction in 2030. Investment in Australia’s natural gas sector projects has been helped by the country’s reputation as a stable polit

ical environment that takes no state equity in reserves or LNG assets. Even in Australia, however, state involve

ment has a bearing on project economics. The Gorgon LNG project to develop reserves off Australia’s north

west coast faces not only stringent environmental requirements but also, in an agreement with the Western Australia state government, a requirement that the pro

ject must allocate 15 percent of Gorgon reserves for domestic consumption. The Western Australia govern

ment negotiated a similar agreement with the North

west Shelf LNG developers, reserving 4.7 trillion cubic feet of Northwest Shelf natural gas for the domestic mar

ket. The requirement for domestic sales has kept natural gas prices in Western Australia below the LNG netback equivalent; however, all of the reserved natural gas has been consumed or allocated, and the Western Australia government is now looking at options for applyingdomestic reservation requirements to all future liquefaction projects that would process offshore gas in Western Australia [ 3 ]. Increasing state involvement in the upstream natural gas activities of several large reserve holders throughoutthe world is threatening to delay or discourage investments in new production and export capacity. In May2006, Bolivia nationalized its energy resources, prompting investors to suspend further investment, including suspending plans to expand export pipelines. In January 2006, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez proposed changing the constitution to make both natural gas and petroleum assets subject to state control. And in October 2006, Russia announced that there would be no foreign ownership in the giant Shtokman natural gas reserves, although it may bring foreign firms in as contractors to help with the development. Also in Russia, the majority state-owned firm Gazprom has gained a controlling share in the Sakhalin-2 LNG project, owned by a consor

tium led by Royal Dutch/Shell, ending disputes with authorities about environmental issues that had plagued the project [ 4 ]. 

# World Natural Gas Demand

OECD North America Natural gas consumption in North America (Figure 47) is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent from 2004 to 2030. The average annual growth rate for natural gas demand in the United States is pro

jected to be 0.6 percent, significantly less than in Canada and Mexico, largely because of the impact of higher nat

ural gas prices and supply concerns in U.S. natural gas markets. As North America’s largest consumer, the United States accounted for more than 80 percent of the 27.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas consumed in North America in 2004. As a result of the relatively slow growth in U.S. demand and robust growth in Canada and Mexico, the U.S. share of North America’s total nat

ural gas consumption in 2030 falls to 74 percent. In 2004, natural-gas-fired plants accounted for less than 20 percent of electricity generation in the United States, while coal-fired plants accounted for about 50 percent. The natural gas share of generation is projected to rise to 22 percent in 2015. After 2015, higher natural gas prices, along with tax incentives for clean coal technologies, are expected to discourage the construction of new natu

ral-gas-fired plants in favor of coal-fired plants, leading to a decline in the natural gas share to 16 percent and an increase in the coal share to 57 percent in 2030. U.S. natu

ral gas consumption for electricity generation is pro

jected to peak in 2020 at 7.2 trillion cubic feet, followed by a decline to 5.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030. In Canada, natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase steadily at rates of 0.5 and 0.7 percent per year, respectively. Strong growth rates of 2.2 percent per year in Canada’s consumption of natural gas for electricity generation and 2.1 percent per year for industrial uses—including vast quantities of natural gas consumed in the mining ofthe country’s oil sands deposits—are the main contributors to Canada’s projected consumption growth. The expected growth in domestic consumption, coupled with a projected production decline of 0.3 percent per year, would leave less Canadian natural gas available for export. In 2004, Canada consumed 52 percent of its

44 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 Trillion Cubic Feet

United States Canada Mexico 

### Figure 47. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### own natural gas production. In 2030, it is expected to consume 87 percent of its production domestically. In Mexico, strong growth in natural gas consumption is expected in all sectors, with total consumption more than doubling between 2004 and 2030. Although the absolute quantities are small, average annual growth of 3.8 percent and 3.7 percent are expected for natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors, respectively. Industrial consumption is projected to almost double, and consumption for electricity genera

tion is expected to almost triple. Mexico’s natural gas production is expected to double between 2004 and 2030, from 1.5 trillion cubic feet to 3.0 trillion cubic feet, but the projected growth in consumption over the period (2.4 trillion cubic feet) far exceeds the production growth, leaving Mexico dependent on LNG-exporting countries and on pipeline imports from the United States for needed supplies. Mexico remains a net importer of natural gas from the United States through

out the projection period. OECD Europe Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel source in OECD Europe, with demand increasing at an annual average rate of 1.4 percent, from 18.8 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 23.0 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and26.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 48). Growth in natural gas use for power generation is projected to accountfor the majority of total incremental gas use to 2030. Natural-gas-fired generation is less carbon-intensive than oil- or coal-fired generation and is expected to remain more cost-competitive than renewable energy, making natural gas the fuel of choice for new generating capac

ity in OECD Europe. OECD Asia In Japan, natural gas consumption is projected to grow on average by 1.4 percent per year over the projection period, from 3.0 trillion cubic in 2004 to 4.3 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 49). The strongest growth in con

sumption is projected for the electric power sector, aver

aging 1.7 percent annually from 2004 to 2030. Total natural gas consumption in South Korea is pro

jected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2004 to 2030. In 2004, the residential sector was the country’s predominant source of demand for natural gas, accounting for 39 percent of the total. The electric power sector was a close second at 33 percent of total natural gas use, followed by the industrial sector at 20 percent of the total. South Korea has large seasonal swings in demand for natural gas, importing more than twice as much LNG at its annual winter peak as at its lowest point during the summer—primarily to meet demand for heating in the residential sector. For a country that imports all its natu

ral gas supplies as LNG and has no underground storage facilities, this can be an expensive undertaking. Korea Gas Corporation paid as much as $26 per million Btu for LNG on the spot market in 2005 and 2006, when it faced steep competition for winter cargoes [ 5 ]. In thereference case projection, however, with nearly flat population growth, South Korea is expected to see the growth of natural gas consumption in its electric power and industrial sectors outpace growth in the residentialsector, potentially moderating seasonal swings in overall demand.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 45 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 Trillion Cubic Feet 

### Figure 48. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Europe, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 203 0 0 2 4 6 8 Trillion Cubic Feet

South Korea Australia/New Zealand Japan Total 

### Figure 49. Natural Gas Consumption in OECD Asia by Country, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### In Australia and New Zealand, the industrial sector cur

rently is the predominant consumer of natural gas and is projected to account for more than 50 percent of all natu

ral gas consumption in the region throughout the projec

tion period. Natural gas is the fastest growing fuel in Australia and New Zealand in the IEO2007 reference case, accounting for 30 percent of the projected growth in the region’s total energy consumption from 2004 to 2030. It is also the fastest growing fuel in the region’s electric power sector. Although Australia has not rati

fied the Kyoto Protocol, several of the government’s environmental policies have been put in place to help stimulate increases in natural gas use for electric power generation and to moderate growth in the use of coal, of which Australia has large reserves. In January 2003, the government of New South Wales instituted a greenhouse gas abatement scheme that applies to electricity retailers [ 6 ]. Also, starting in Janu

ary 2005, the Queensland government’s “13 percent Gas Scheme” requires all electricity retailers to source at least 13 percent of their electricity from natural-gas-fired gen

eration. The scheme allows certificates from qualified generation to be traded independently of the electricity generated. Electricity retailers are then required to acquire and turn in certificates representing their13-percent minimum. The scheme aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and boost the natural gas industry in Queensland [ 7]. Non-OECD Europe and EurasiaThe non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region is more reliant on natural gas than any other region in the world. Russia is second only to the United States in total natural gas consumption, with demand totaling 16.0 trillion cubic feet in 2004 and representing 55 percent of Russia’s total energy consumption (Figure 50). The other coun

tries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia met 44 percent of their combined total energy needs with natural gas in 2004, consuming 8.4 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas intensity (defined as the amount consumed per dollar of GDP) in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is greater than in any other region of the world, although it has improved in recent years from 9.7 thousand Btu per dollar of GDP in 1996 to 7.5 thousand Btu per dollar in 2004. In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas intensity in the region is projected to continue improving (decreasing) at an average rate of 2.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Even at that rate, however, natural gas intensity in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is not projected to equal the 2004 level of North America’s nat

ural gas intensity until after 2030.

Non-OECD Asia The fastest growth in natural gas consumption among all regions is projected for non-OECD Asia, which accounted for only 8.5 percent of the world total in 2004 but is projected to account for almost 30 percent of the increase in total natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030. Natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia more than triples in the IEO2007 reference case, from 8.5 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 27.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 51).Led by demand in China and India, natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia is projected to expand by 4.6 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2030. In both China and India, natural gas currently is a minor fuel in the overall energy mix, representing only

46 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 5 10 15 20 25 Trillion Cubic Feet

Russia Other 

### Figure 50. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Trillion Cubic Feet

China India Other 

### Figure 51. Natural Gas Consumption in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### 3 percent and 8 percent, respectively, of total primary energy consumption in 2004; however, both countries are rapidly expanding infrastructure to serve demand. China received it first-ever LNG cargo in mid-2006 under a long-term contract with Australia. India increased its spot and short-term LNG purchases in 2006, reportedly paying more than $9 per million Btu for one cargo (a year earlier, Royal Dutch/Shell could not find customers for LNG from its Hazira regasification terminal at a price of about $8 per million Btu). Natural gas shortages in India have reportedly left natural-gas-fired electric power plants and fertilizer plants underutilized in the past few years. In the IEO2007 reference case, India’s natural gas consumption is projected to rise rapidly in the mid-term, growing by 6.2 percent per year on average from 2004 to 2015. As international natural gas prices gain acceptance in India, and as supplies from the Krishna-Godavari basin come on line around 2010, domestic natural gas supply is expected to catch up with currently underserved demand and also expand to serve new demand. Natural gas supplies have also been tight in other parts of non-OECD Asia. LNG exports from Indonesia’s Arun and Bontang liquefaction plants have been declining steadily, as dwindling production from the aging fields has been diverted to satisfy local demand. Startup of the Tangguh liquefaction plant, scheduled for 2009, should boost Indonesia’s exports for a time, but it is expected that the country will soon lose its place (to Qatar) as the world’s largest exporter of LNG. Growth in natural gas consumption is projected to out

strip production growth in the non-OECD Asia region over the projection period. In 2004, net exports from the region were equal to 19 percent of its total production. In the IEO2007 reference case, its net exports fall to 4 per

cent of production in 2015, and in 2020 the non-OECD Asia region is projected to be a net importer, with importing exceeding production by 9 percent.

Other Non-OECD In the IEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption grows at average annual rates of 2.5 percent in the Mid

dle East and 3.3 percent in Africa from 2004 to 2030. Nat

ural gas consumption in the Middle East almost doubles over the projection period, and consumption in Africa more than doubles (Figure 52). Before 2015, most of the increase in natural gas production in both regions is pro

jected to be for export projects. As a result, the export share of production increases from 2004 to 2015 in both regions (Figure 53). After 2015, production increases in the two regions are expected to be directed more toward domestic consumption, and their export shares of pro

duction show only slight increases from 2015 to 2030. In Central and South America, natural gas is the fastestgrowing fuel source, with demand increasing on average by 2.6 percent per year, from 4.1 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 7.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Brazil accounts for more than 20 percent of the projected increase in the region’s consumption of natural gas in 2030 relative to total consumption in 2004. 

# References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 47 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 40 Trillion Cubic Feet

Middle East

Africa Central and South America Total 

### Figure 52. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, Africa, and the Middle East, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 13 24 30 31 31 32 50 58 58 58 59 59

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 20 40 60 80 Percent

Middle East Africa 

### Figure 53. Export Share of Natural Gas Production in the Middle East and Africa, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 

### 1. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil

& Gas Journal, Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006), pp. 22-23.48 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### 2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (London,

UK, June 2006), p. 22. 3. State of Western Australia, Department of Industry

and Resources, “WA Government Policy on Securing Domestic Gas Supplies, Consultation Paper” (February 2006). 4. A. Neff, “Gazprom Secures Controlling Stake in Sakhalin02 Project in US$7.45-bil. Deal,” Global Insight, Inc., Energy: Sector Analysis, web site www.globalinsight.com (December 22, 2006). 5. “Kogas boosts Qatari LNG,” International Gas

Report, No. 561 (November 17, 2006), pp. 17-18.

# Chapter 5 

# Coal

In the IEO2007 reference case, world coal consumption increases by 74 percent from 2004 to 2030, international coal trade increases by 44 percent from 2005 to 2030, and coal’s share of world energy consumption increases from 26 percent in 2004 to 28 percent in 2030.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world coal consumption increases by 74 percent over the projection period, from 114.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 199.0 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 54). Coal consumption increases by 2.6 per

cent per year on average from 2004 to 2015, then slows to an average increase of 1.8 percent annually from 2015 to 2030. World GDP and primary energy consumption also grow more rapidly in the first half than in the second half of the projections, reflecting a gradual slowdown of economic growth in non-OECD Asia. Regionally, increased use of coal in non-OECD countries accounts for 85 percent of the total growth in world coal con

sumption projected over the entire IEO2007 projection horizon. In 2004, coal accounted for 26 percent of total world energy consumption (Figure 55). Of the coal produced worldwide in 2004, 65 percent was shipped to electricity producers, 31 percent to industrial consumers, and mostof the remaining 4 percent to coal consumers in the residential and commercial sectors. Coal’s share of total world energy consumption is projected to increase to 28 percent in 2030, and in the electric power sector its share is projected to rise from 43 percent in 2004 to 45 percent in 2030. Although coal currently is the second-largest fuel source of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions (behind oil), accounting for 39 percent of the world total in 2004, it is projected to become the largest source by 2010. The two key factors underlying the increase are a more rapid pro

jected growth rate for world coal consumption than for oil consumption and the fact that carbon dioxide emis

sions per unit of energy output are higher for coal thanfor oil or natural gas. In 2030, coal’s share of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions is projected to be 43 percent, compared with 36 percent for oil and 21 percent for natural gas.

International coal trade increases in the reference case from 18.4 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 26.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030—an increase of 44 percent. Because the largest increase in consumption is projected for coal that is both produced and consumed domestically in China, the share of total world coal consumption accounted for by internationally traded coal falls from 15 percent in 2004 to 13 percent in 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 49 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 Quadrillion Btu History Projections

OECD Total

Non-OECD 

### Figure 54. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 43

22

3 26 44

23

3 27 45

24

2 28

Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent

2004 2015 2030 

### Figure 55. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# World Coal Reserves

Total recoverable reserves of coal 10 

### around the world are estimated at 998 billion tons 11 

### —reflecting a current reserves-to-production ratio of 164 12 

### (Table 8) [ 1 ]. His

torically, estimates of world recoverable coal reserves, although relatively stable, have declined gradually from 1,174 billion tons in 1990 to 1,083 billion tons in 2000 and 998 billion tons in 2003 [ 2 ]. The most recent assessment of world coal reserves includes a substantial downward adjustment for Germany, from 73 billion tons of recover

able coal reserves to 7 billion tons. The reassessment pri

marily reflects more restrictive criteria for the depth and thickness parameters associated with both underground and surface minable seams of coal [ 3 ]. Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 67 per

cent of the world’s recoverable reserves are located in four countries: the United States (27 percent), Russia (17 percent), China (13 percent), and India (10 percent). In 2004, these four countries, taken together, accounted for 66 percent of total world coal production [ 4 ]. By rank, anthracite and bituminous coal account for 53 percent of the world’s estimated recoverable coal reserves (on atonnage basis), subbituminous coal accounts for 30 percent, and lignite accounts for 17 percent. Quality and geological characteristics of coal deposits are important parameters for coal reserves. Coal is a het

erogeneous source of energy, with quality (e.g., charac

teristics such as heat, sulfur, and ash content) varying significantly by region and even within individual coal seams. At the top end of the quality spectrum are pre

mium-grade bituminous coals, or coking coals, used to manufacture coke for the steelmaking process. Coking coals produced in the United States have an estimated heat content of 27.4 million Btu per ton and relatively low sulfur content of approximately 0.8 percent by weight [ 5 ]. At the other end of the spectrum are reserves of low-Btu lignite. On a Btu basis, lignite reserves show considerable variation. Estimates published by the Inter

national Energy Agency for 2004 indicate that the aver

age heat content of lignite in major producing countries varies from a low of 4.4 million Btu per ton in Greece to a high of 12.3 million Btu per ton in Canada [ 6 ]. 

# World Coal Production From 2004 to 2030, coal production in China, the United States, and India, driven by growing coal consumption,is projected to increase by 50.4 quadrillion Btu, 11.1 quadrillion Btu, and 5.7 quadrillion Btu, respectively (Table 9). It is assumed that most of the demand for coal in

50 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Table 8. World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003 (Billion Short Tons)

Region/Country Bituminous and Anthracite Subbituminous Lignite Total
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528.8 298.1 170.9 997.7 United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.7 110.3 33.5 267.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.1 107.4 11.5 173.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.6 37.1 20.5 126.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.3 0.0 2.6 101.9 Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 50.1 18.7 31.3 100.1 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.6 2.7 41.9 87.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.3 0.2 * 55.5 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 5.0 18.8 43.3 Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.0 8.1 11.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.1 Other Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 2.2 0.1 10.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 1.0 2.5 7.3 Other b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 0.4 0.1 2.3

a Data for the United States represent recoverable coal estimates as of January 1, 2006. b Includes Mexico, Middle East, Japan, and South Korea. *Less than 0.05 billion short tons. Sources: United States: Energy Information Administration, unpublished data from the Coal Reserves Database (April 2007). All Other Countries: World Energy Council, 2004 Survey of Energy Resources , Eds. J. Trinnaman and A. Clarke (London, UK: Elsevier, December 2004).

10 Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions. 11 Throughout this chapter, tons refer to short tons (2,000 pounds). 12 Ratio based on reserves data supplied in Table 8 and data on world coal production for 2004.

### China, the United States, and India will continue to be met by domestic production. The projected increases in coal production for the three countries dominate the overall trends in the OECD and non-OECD regions, accounting for 71 percent of the increase in production for the entire OECD region and 79 percent of the increase in the non-OECD region. Increased demand for interna

tional trade is expected to support production increases in Australia/New Zealand, Russia, other non-OECD Asia, Africa, and Central and South America (excluding Brazil). 

# World Coal Consumption
OECD Countries Coal consumption in the OECD countries rises at a rela

tively even pace in the reference case, from 46.6 quadril

lion Btu in 2004 to 50.7 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 59.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Figure 56). The increases repre

sent average growth of 0.9 percent per year over the entire period and a slightly higher rate of 1.1 percent per year from 2015 to 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 51 

### Table 9. World Coal Production by Region, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu)

Region 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 33.3 37.0 1.6%

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.8 24.6 25.8 26.7 30.4 33.9 1.5% Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.0% Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.3% OECD Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.6 -0.7%
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.7 1.7%

Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9% Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 12.6 1.7%

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.6 44.7 46.4 47.7 51.9 56.2 1.3% Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . 10.0 11.5 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.7 1.2%

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 1.4% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.3 0.9%
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.2 70.6 82.4 94.7 105.4 116.7 2.9%

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.0 55.4 64.6 74.3 83.4 93.4 3.0% India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 8.1 9.5 10.8 12.0 13.0 2.3% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 7.1 8.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 2.9%
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ****** -1.2%
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.6 8.9 1.6%
Central and South America . . . . . . 1.8 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 3.4%

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.4%

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.8 91.9 105.7 120.1 131.9 143.7 2.6%
Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.4 136.6 152.1 167.7 183.8 199.9 2.2%

*Less than 0.05 quadrillion Btu Note: With the exception of North America, non-seaborne coal trade is not represented in the IEO2007 cases. As a result, the projected levels of production assume that net non-seaborne coal trade will balance out across the world regions. Currently, a significant amount of non-seaborne coal trade takes place in Eurasia, represented by exports of steam coal from Kazikhstan to Russia and exports of coking coal from Russia to Ukraine.

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007) and National Energy Modeling System run IEO2007.D032707B.

### Much of the increase in coal consumption projected for the OECD countries from 2004 to 2030 is the result of expected strong growth in U.S. coal demand, under the assumption that existing laws and policies remain in effect indefinitely. Moderate increases in coal consump

tion are projected for most of the OECD countries, including South Korea, Canada, Australia/New Zea

land, and Mexico. In OECD Europe, natural gas is expected to capture an increasing share of the region’s total energy mix, primarily displacing coal and liquids and, to a lesser extent, nuclear energy. Slow economic growth in Japan is projected to result in sluggish growth in overall energy demand, and as a result, the projection for Japan’s coal consumption in 2030 is only slightly lower than its 2004 total.
North America 

### In 2004, the United States consumed 22.6 quadrillion Btu of energy from coal, accounting for 94 percent of total coal consumption in North America and 48 percent of the OECD total. U.S. coal consumption rises to 34.1 qua

drillion Btu in 2030 in the reference case. The United States has substantial coal reserves and has come to rely heavily on coal for electricity generation, a trend thatcontinues in the projections. Coal’s share of total electricity generation in the United States (including electricity produced at combined heat and power plants in the industrial and commercial sectors) declines slightly, from 50 percent in 2004 to 49 percent in 2015, then rises to 57 percent in 2030. Much of the projected growth in U.S. coal consumption occurs after 2015. Between 2005 and 2015, natural gas prices are projected to decline, remaining competitive with coal prices for electricity generation. Although some new natural-gas-fired capacity is projected to come on line during the period, much of the growth in electricity generation from natural gas is based on increasing utilization of the nearly 200 gigawatts of new natural-gas-fired capacity that came on line from 1999 through 2004. After 2015, rising natural gas prices grad

ually tilt economic decisions toward new coal-fired power plants. From 2015 to 2030, 140 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity is projected to be built, representing 89 percent of the total coal builds projected for the years 2005 through 2030. These projections could change sig

nificantly if existing laws and policies, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions, were to change. Canada’s coal consumption is projected to increase from 1.2 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 1.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030. In the short term, Canada’s coal consumption remains near current levels, as the Ontario government moves ahead with plans to shut down the Province’s 6.5 gigawatts of remaining coal-fired generating capacity by 2014 [ 7]. The government has indicated, however, that the shutdown will not be completed until generation from alternative sources can be secured. The decision to close the plants is based primarily on the premise that the adverse health and environmental impacts of the plants’ operation are unacceptable. In western Canada, where most of the country’s coal resources are located, increasing demand for electricity is expected to result in the need for additional coal-fired generating capacity. In Mexico, relatively strong growth in overall energy demand leads to an increase in total coal consumption of 0.5 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030. Mexico is pro

jected to use more coal in 2030 both in the electric power sector and in the industrial sector. OECD Europe 

### Coal consumption in OECD Europe declines by 1.7 quadrillion Btu (13 percent) from 2004 to 2030 in the IEO2007 reference case; however, the region is and will continue to be a major market for coal. Coal consump

tion in OECD Europe, at 13.1 quadrillion Btu in 2004, represented 28 percent of total OECD coal use. It is pro

jected to drop to 11.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or 19 per

cent of total OECD coal use. The major coal-consuming countries of the region, all with consumption of 0.7 quadrillion Btu or more in 2004, include Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, Spain, Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Although OECD Europe relies heavily on imports of hard coal, 13 

### low-Btu lignite represents an important domestically produced source of energy. In 2004, lignite accounted for 47 per

cent of the region’s total coal consumption on a tonnage basis and 23 percent on a Btu basis [ 8 ].

52 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Total OECD 0 25 50 75 Quadrillion Btu

1980 2004 2015 2030 

### Figure 56. OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 1980 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

13 Internationally, the term “hard coal” is used to describe anthracite and bituminous coal. In data published by the International Energy Agency, coal of subbituminous rank is classified as hard coal for some countries and as brown coal (with lignite) for others.

### Plans to replace or refurbish existing coal-fired capacity in a number of the countries of OECD Europe are an indication that coal will continue to play an important role in the region’s overall energy mix. In addition to some recent additions of coal-fired capacity (primarily in Turkey), electricity producers in Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakiahave revealed plans to upgrade or replace existing coalfired generating facilities over the next two decades. Power producers in Germany plan to build nearly 11 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity by 2012, primarily to replace existing, less efficient, coal-fired capacity [ 9 ]. A key incentive for the new coal builds in Germany is a provision guaranteeing carbon dioxide emission rights for the new capacity during the first 14 years of its operation. Among the most important factors that keep coal con

sumption in OECD Europe from increasing in the pro

jections is the region’s relatively slow growth in overall energy consumption (0.4 percent per year). Contrib

uting factors include continued penetration of natural gas in both the electricity and industrial sectors, growing use of renewable fuels in the region, and continuing pressure on members of the European Union to reduce subsidies that support domestic production of hard coal.

OECD Asia 

### In 2004, the countries of OECD Asia (Australia, NewZealand, Japan, and South Korea) consumed 9.3 quadrillion Btu of coal, representing 20 percent of total OECD coal consumption. In addition to being an important coal-consuming region, OECD Asia also plays an impor

tant role in international coal trade. In 2004, Australia was the world’s leading coal exporter, supplying 5.6 quadrillion Btu of coal to the international market, while Japan and South Korea were the world’s leading import

ers, receiving 4.6 and 2.0 quadrillion Btu of coal, respec

tively, from other countries [ 10 ].

In the IEO2007 reference case, coal consumption in OECD Asia increases by 1.7 quadrillion Btu, to 11.0 qua

drillion Btu in 2030. With little change projected for Japan’s coal consumption, South Korea and Australia/ New Zealand account for virtually all of the increase in the region. Coal consumption in Australia and New Zealand is pro

jected to increase by an average of 1.2 percent per year, from 2.4 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 3.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. With substantial coal reserves, the Australia/New Zealand region continues to rely heavily on coal for elec

tricity generation; however, coal’s share of total genera

tion in the region is projected to decline gradually, asmore natural gas is used for power generation. Coalfired power plants in the two countries supplied 73 per

cent of their total electricity generation in 2004. That share declines gradually in the reference case, to 63 per

cent in 2030. South Korea’s total annual coal consumption is pro

jected to increase by 0.9 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030, primarily to fuel electric power plants. Construc

tion plans that have been announced by South Korea’s generating companies indicate additional builds of 7.3 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity at existing sites over the next few years, including two 500-megawatt units that came on line at Korea East-West Power Company’s Dangjin plant in 2005 and 2006 [ 11 ].

Non-OECD Countries Led by strong economic growth and rising demand for energy in China and India, non-OECD coal consump

tion is projected to rise to 139.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030, more than double the quantity consumed in 2004 (Figure 57). The increase of 71.9 quadrillion Btu repre

sents 85 percent of the projected increase in total world coal consumption. Coal’s share of total energy consump

tion in the non-OECD region is projected to increase from 33 percent in 2004 to 35 percent in 2030. Total coal consumption in the non-OECD countries is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent from 2004 to 2015 and at a slower rate of 2.2 percent per year from 2015 to 2030, as the region’s overall rate of economic growth begins to slow in the later years of the projection period.

Non-OECD Asia 

### China and India together account for 72 percent of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2004 to 2030. Strong economic growth (averaging 6.5 percent

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 53 Non-OECD

Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD Total Non-OECD 0 50 100 150 Quadrillion Btu

1980 2004 2015 2030 

### Figure 57. Non-OECD Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 1980 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### per year in China and 5.7 percent per year in India from 2004 to 2030) is projected for both countries, and much of the increase in their demand for energy, particularly in the industrial and electricity sectors, is expected to be met by coal. Coal use in China’s electricity sector is projected to increase from 22.7 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 55.9 qua

drillion Btu in 2030, at an average rate of 3.5 percent per year (Figure 58). In comparison, coal consumption in the U.S. electricity sector is projected to grow by 1.7 percent annually, from 20.3 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 31.1 qua

drillion Btu in 2030. At the end of 2004, China had an estimated 271 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in opera

tion. To meet the demand for electricity that is expected to accompany its rapid economic growth, an additional 497 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is projected to be brought on line in China by 2030, requiring large financial investments in new coal-fired power plants and associated transmission and distribu

tion systems. Nearly one-half (45 percent) of China’s coal use in 2004was in the non-electricity sectors, primarily in the industrial sector. China was the world’s leading producer of both steel and pig iron in 2004 [ 12 ]. Over the projection period, coal demand in China’s non-electricity sectors isexpected to more than double, increasing by 20.9 quadrillion Btu. Despite such substantial growth, however,the non-electricity share of total coal demand is projected to decline slightly, to 41 percent of total coal demand in 2030. Coal remains the primary source of energy in China’s industrial sector, primarily because the country has only limited reserves of oil and natural gas. With a substantial portion of the increase in China’s demand for both liquids and natural gas projected to be met by imports, the Chinese government is actively pro

moting the development of a large coal-to-liquids indus

try. Initial production of coal-based synthetic liquids in China is scheduled to commence in late 2007 with the completion of the country’s first coal-to-liquids plant, located in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region [ 13 ]. It is being built by the Shenhua Coal Liquefaction Cor

poration and will have an initial capacity of approxi

mately 20,000 barrels per day, tentatively scheduled to be increased to 100,000 barrels per day by 2010. In another development, China’s Shenhua and Ningxia Industry Groups are proceeding with feasibility studies for the construction of two 80,000 barrel per day coal-to-liquids plants to be sited in the Ningxia Autono

mous Region and the Shaanxi Province. Although China’s government and industry have proposed tobuild as much as 1.0 million barrels of daily coal-toliquids capacity by 2020, considerable uncertainty and risks are associated with the emergence of such a mas

sive coal-to-liquids industry, including potential strainson water resources and the general financial risks associated with the technological uncertainties and huge capital investments.Nearly 70 percent of the growth in India’s coal consumption is expected to be in the electric power sector and most of the remainder in the industrial sector. In 2004,India’s coal-fired power plants consumed 5.6 quadrillion Btu of coal, representing 69 percent of the country’s total coal demand. Coal use for electricity generation in India is projected to grow by 2.4 percent per year, to 10.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030, as an additional 104 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is brought on line. As a result, India’s coal-fired generating capacity more than doubles in the IEO2007 projections, from 82 gigawatts in 2004 to 186 gigawatts in 2030. Currently, India’s government indicates that 11 giga

watts of new coal-fired generating capacity will be com

pleted during its tenth power plan period (a 5-year period ending in March 2007), and it is planning to com

plete more than 50 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity during its eleventh plan period (ending in March 2012) [ 14 ]. In addition, India’s government is also pursuingthe development of between five and seven large coalfired power projects that would have between 20 and 28 gigawatts of combined generating capability [ 15 ]. In other non-OECD Asia, coal consumption is projected to grow by an average of 2.8 percent per year, from 4.3 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 8.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030, with increases in both the industrial and electric power sectors. In the electric power sector, significant growth in coal consumption is expected in Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, where considerable amounts

54 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 23 16

3 41 39

23

3 65 56

37

3 95

Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total 0 20 40 60 80 100 Quadrillion Btu

2004 2015 2030 

### Figure 58. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2006).

### of new coal-fired generating capacity are either planned or under construction.
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 

### Coal consumption in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.0 percent per year, from 9.0 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 11.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The region has substantial coal reserves: Russia alone has an estimated 173 billion tons of recover

able reserves (17 percent of the world total), and the other countries in the region have an additional 100 bil

lion tons (10 percent of the world total). Russia is the largest coal consumer in the region, with total consumption of 4.8 quadrillion Btu in 2004, corre

sponding to 54 percent of total coal consumption in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In 2030, Russia’s coal use is projected to total 6.1 quadrillion Btu. Coal sup

plied 16 percent of Russia’s total energy requirements in 2004, and coal-fired power plants provided 20 percent of its electricity. In the IEO2007 reference case, coal’s share of Russia’s total energy consumption is projected todrop slightly, to 15 percent in 2030, and its share of electricity generation is projected to decline to 16 percent in 2030. In most cases, natural gas is expected to be the most economical option for new generating capacity in Russia, although nuclear generation also is expected to increase substantially though 2030. The natural gas share of Russia’s total electricity generation is projected to rise from 44 percent in 2004 to 48 percent in 2030. Although Russia’s long-term energy strategy calls for considerable new nuclear generating capacity, the gov

ernment maintains that fossil-fuel-fired plants will con

tinue in their role as the primary source for electric power generation through 2020 [ 16 ]. For new fossil-fired generating capacity, Russia’s energy strategy promotes the construction of advanced coal-fired capacity in the coal-rich Siberian region (central Russia) and recom

mends a focus on efficient natural-gas-fired capacity for the western and far eastern areas of the country. In other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, coal consump

tion is projected to increase from 4.2 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 5.6 quadrillion Btu by 2030, growing by 1.1 per

cent per year on average. Plans for both new coal-fired capacity and the refurbishment of existing capacity in a number of countries, including Bosnia and Herze

govina, Serbia and Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine, are a significant indication that coal will con

tinue to be an important source of energy for the region [ 17].

Africa 

### Africa’s coal consumption is projected to increase by 2.6 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030. South Africa cur

rently accounts for 94 percent of the coal consumed on the continent and is expected to continue to account for much of the increase in Africa’s total coal consumption over the projection period in both the electricity and industrial sectors. In South Africa, increasing demand for electricity in recent years has led to a decision by Eskom, the coun

try’s state-owned electricity supplier, to restart three large coal-fired plants (Camden, Grootvlei, and Komati) that have been closed for more than a decade [ 18 ]. The plants, with a combined generating capacity of 3.8 gigawatts, are scheduled to return to service in 2007. Recent power shortages and the general lack of spare generating capacity in southern Africa have led to increased interest in new coal-fired power projects not only in South Africa but also in Mozambique, Zimba

bwe, Tanzania, and Botswana [ 19 ]. In the industrial sector, increasing use of coal in Africa is expected for several purposes, including the production of steam and process heat for industrial applications, production of coke for the steel industry, and produc

tion of coal-based synthetic liquids. Currently, two com

mercial-sized coal-to-liquids plants in South Africa (Sasol II and Sasol III) supply about 28 percent of the country’s total liquid fuel requirements [ 20 ]. The two plants together are capable of producing 150,000 barrels of synthetic liquids per day.

Central and South America 

### The countries of Central and South America consumed 0.8 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2004. Brazil, with the world’s eighth-largest steel industry in 2004, accounted for 56 percent of the region’s coal demand. Chile, Colombia, Puerto Rico, Peru, and Argentina accounted for most of the remainder [ 21 ]. In the projections, coal consumption in Central and South America increases by 0.9 quadrillion Btu from 2004 to 2030, with 72 percent of the increase in Brazil, primarily for coke manufacture and electricity genera

tion. Brazil’s steel companies currently plan to expand production capacity by a substantial amount over the next few years to meet increasing domestic and interna

tional demand for steel [ 22 ]. In addition, Brazil’s three southernmost states, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana, which contain most of the country’s coal reserves, are actively promoting the construction of sev

eral new coal-fired power plants [ 23 ]. The new projects being promoted by the government of Rio Grande do Sul represent a key component of its plan to become more self-sufficient in electricity supply.

Middle East 

### Countries of the Middle East consumed 0.4 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2004. Israel accounted for 86 percent of the total and Iran most of the remainder. The region’s coal consumption increases only slightly in the projections, to 0.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 55

# World Coal Trade In addition to overall energy demand and the price of coal, many factors have the potential to influence differ

ent countries’ ability and interest in exporting and importing coal. They include mine productivity, inland transportation infrastructure, and the port capacity of both importing and exporting countries. Shifts in public policy, as well as environmental concerns related to either coal production or coal consumption, can affect the amounts of coal traded. Uncertainty in the outlook for international coal trade includes potential changes in each of those factors. Internationally traded coal made up 15 percent of total world consumption in 2004. In the IEO2007 reference case, world coal trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, from about 18.4 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 26.5 quadrillion Btu in 2030 (Table 10). Because the largest increases in coal consumption through 2030 are projected for non-OECD Asia—partic

ularly China, which is expected to satisfy most of the increase in its coal demand from domestic mines rather than imports—the share of coal trade as a percentage of global coal consumption is projected to fall to 13 percent in 2030. Australia and Indonesia are geographically wellsituated to continue as the leading suppliers of internationally traded coal (particularly to Asia) over the period.Both steam and metallurgical coal are traded internationally, but most of the trade is in steam coal, which is projected to continue to represent most (70 percent) of the coal traded in 2030. In 2005, 55 percent of the world’s exports of steam coal was imported by Asian countries, and their share is projected to rise to 61 percent in 2030. The share of metallurgical coal imports destined for Asian countries is projected to increase from 61 percent in 2005 to 68 percent in 2030. Coal Exporters Coal-exporting countries typically have large reserves of high-quality coal and production capacity exceeding their own domestic demand requirements. The top four exporters of steam coal in 2005 were Australia, Indone

sia, China, and South Africa. In the projections, Indone

sia is expected to surpass Australia as the largest exporter of steam coal in most years, and China is only the sixth-largest exporter of steam coal in 2030. For cok

ing coal, Australia, Canada, and the United States con

tinue to be ranked among the top three exporters over the projection period. Countries projected to expand their contributions to international trade include Aus

tralia, Indonesia, and Russia. China and Vietnam are projected to constrain their export expansion. Already the world’s leading exporter of coal, Australia is projected to dominate future international coal trade. Australia continues to improve its inland transportation and port infrastructure to expedite coal shipments to international markets. It has plans to expand coal termi

nals at Abbot Point, Dalrymple Bay, Hay Point, RG Tanna, Barney Point, and Fisherman Islands by about 55 million tons by 2010 and to expand rail transportation capacity in Queensland, where most of Australia’s met

allurgical coal is mined, to about 280 million tons (6.8 quadrillion Btu 14 

### ) [ 24 ]. Australia also is projected to remain the primary exporter of metallurgical coal to Asian markets, supplying 73 percent of Asia’s demand for coking coal.
In the international market for steam coal, Indonesia is expected to play a growing role, surpassing Australia as the largest exporter of steam coal in most years of the IEO2007 projections. Indonesia has low-cost reserves of low-sulfur coal; many ports, some with the capability to take capesize ships; and proximity to the expanding markets of Asia. Indonesia’s export trade grew by 125 percent (79 million tons or 1.6 quadrillion Btu) from 2000 to 2005 [ 25 ]. For 2006, Indonesia is expected to beat its 2005 export volume by 0.7 quadrillion Btu. From 2005 to 2030, its annual exports are projected to increase by 1.7 quadrillion Btu, depending on its investment in resource exploration and the development of new mines over the period. Other areas of uncertainty for Indonesian exports include the potential for domestic coal demandto compete with coal exports, the adequacy of its internal transportation infrastructure, and domestic environmental concerns. In the period following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, exports of steam coal from Eurasia (the countries of the former Soviet Union) fell from 11 million tons (0.2 quadrillion Btu) in 1991 to 3 million tons (0.08 quadril

lion Btu) in 1998 [ 26 ]. Russia, the region’s largest exporter, was largely dismissed as a growing coal exporter because of its low mine productivity, relatively poor coal quality, and long distances between mines and markets. Since then, however, the productivity of its coal mines has improved, lowering mining costs and com

pensating in part for the expense of transporting the coal to ports. Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, has increas

ingly sought Russia’s low-sulfur coal as its own mines have closed. From 1998 to 2005, Eurasia’s annual coal exports increased by 56 million tons (1.2 quadrillion Btu) [ 27], and Russia is continuing to increase the capacity of its coal ports. Current plans call for an additional increase in export capacity from about 72 million tons (1.6 quadrillion Btu) in 2005 to 97 million tons (2.1

56 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 14 Throughout this section, British thermal units appearing in parentheses are estimates by Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 57 

### Table 10. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (Quadrillion Btu)

Exporters Importers Steam Coking Total Europe a Asia Americas Total b Europe a Asia c Americas Total b Europe a Asia Americas Total b 2005 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.08 2.57 0.15 2.81 0.79 2.26 0.22 3.27 0.86 4.83 0.37 6.07 United States. . . . . . . . 0.08 0.03 0.36 0.47 0.44 0.10 0.22 0.77 0.52 0.13 0.58 1.23 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.54 0.10 0.03 1.70 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.56 0.10 0.03 1.73 Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.92 0.29 0.00 1.22 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.40 0.00 1.40 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.37 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.24 0.38 0.11 0.72 0.24 0.41 0.12 0.76 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 1.62 0.01 1.70 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.07 1.76 0.01 1.84 South America d . . . . . . 0.86 0.00 0.77 1.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.77 1.63 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.28 Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.42 2.06 0.08 2.57 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.46 0.42 2.52 0.08 3.03

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.30 6.98 1.41 12.75 1.61 3.44 0.56 5.60 5.91 10.41 1.97 18.35 2015 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 3.33 0.00 3.33 0.64 3.20 0.27 4.10 0.64 6.53 0.27 7.43 United States. . . . . . . . 0.07 0.03 0.19 0.29 0.33 0.03 0.35 0.71 0.41 0.06 0.54 1.00 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.69 0.31 0.13 2.13 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 1.71 0.31 0.15 2.17 Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.35 0.54 0.00 1.89 0.08 0.23 0.00 0.31 1.43 0.77 0.00 2.20 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.18 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.54 0.13 0.96 0.29 0.54 0.13 0.96 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10 South America d . . . . . . 1.42 0.00 1.25 2.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.00 1.25 2.66 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.16 Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.00 3.66 0.13 3.79 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.43 0.00 4.09 0.13 4.22

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.67 9.10 1.70 15.48 1.39 4.46 0.76 6.61 6.06 13.56 2.47 22.09
2030 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 4.17 0.00 4.17 0.84 3.88 0.41 5.13 0.84 8.05 0.42 9.31 United States. . . . . . . . 0.00 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.26 0.04 0.46 0.76 0.26 0.05 0.62 0.93 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 1.44 0.73 0.18 2.36 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 1.44 0.73 0.21 2.38 Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.25 0.66 0.00 1.90 0.16 0.27 0.00 0.43 1.41 0.93 0.00 2.33 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.03 0.11 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.66 0.11 1.04 0.28 0.66 0.11 1.04 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 1.07 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.10 0.00 1.10 South America d . . . . . . 1.58 0.00 2.19 3.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.58 0.00 2.19 3.77 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.80 Indonesia/Othere . . . . . 0.00 3.90 0.35 4.26 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.43 0.00 4.33 0.35 4.68

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.33 11.35 2.93 18.61 1.55 5.31 1.00 7.86 5.88 16.65 3.93 26.47

a Europe/Mediterranean, including coal shipments to the Middle East and Africa. b In 2005, total world coal flows include a balancing item used to reconcile discrepancies between reported exports and imports. The 2005 balancing items by coal type were 1.062 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.003 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.065 quadrillio n Btu (total).

c Includes 0.37 quadrillion Btu of coal for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces shipped to Japanese steelmakers in 2005. d Coal exports from South America are projected to originate from mines in Colombia and Venezuela.
e Includes shipments from other countries not modeled for the projection period. The 2005 exports from other countries by coal type were 0.08 quadrillion Btu (steam coal), 0.03 quadrillion Btu (coking coal), and 0.11 quadrillion Btu (total).

Notes: Data exclude non-seaborne shipments of coal to Europe and Asia. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2005: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast , Vol. 15, No. 2 (London, UK, August 2006); and Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report , October-December 2005, DOE/EIA-0121(2005/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2006). 2015 and 2030: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2007.D032707B.

### quadrillion Btu) by 2008 [ 28 ]. In 2030, Eurasia’s coal exports are projected to be 0.93 quadrillion Btu, or 67 percent, higher than the 2005 level. In non-OECD Asia, China and Vietnam are examples of countries that have the potential to export more coal but are focused instead on meeting domestic coal demand. Whereas China in the past had offered an export tax rebate of 8 percent to encourage exports, it has now imposed a 5-percent export tax on coking coal and may apply an export tax on steam coal in the future [ 29 ]. China has also lowered its export cap to 46 million tons (1.1 quadrillion Btu) for 2007 [ 30 ], equivalent to about one-half of China’s steam coal exports in 2003. Australia, Indonesia, and other suppliers are projected to compen

sate for the shortfalls in China’s coal exports, as occurred in 2005 when China reduced its exports by 16 million tons (0.4 quadrillion Btu) from their 2004 level [ 31 ]. Vietnam’s coal exports have risen quickly in recent years, from 7 million tons (0.1 quadrillion Btu) in 2003 to 14 million tons (0.3 quadrillion Btu) in 2005, and are pro

jected to increase to 19 million tons (0.4 quadrillion Btu)in 2006. More recently, however, despite previous indications of plans to expand its export capacity, Vietnam has moved to restrict exports. In 2006, the Vietnamese government sanctioned a tariff of 10 percent on exported coal, where previously there had been none; and in late 2006, the Prime Minister approved a plan to restrict coalexports through 2010 in favor of preserving coal production for domestic uses [ 32 ]. In the IEO2007 reference case, Vietnam’s coal exports are projected to decline to 0.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 but increase thereafter, to 0.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Coal Imports Asia 

### Asia poses a large area of uncertainty for world coal trade projections. In particular, China has the potential to influence the market either as an importer or an exporter. If China’s imports increase significantly, it may be difficult for some other countries to find ade

quate coal supplies at affordable prices. Likewise, if China opts to export significantly less coal, other export

ing countries may divert supplies to countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, which are accustomed to receiving coal from China. In IEO2007, in line with the projection of continued strong growth in its coal con

sumption, China’s coal imports are projected to total 3.2 quadrillion Btu in 2030, while its exports are projected to total 1.1 quadrillion Btu. Most of the coal consumed in China is expected to come from its own coal mines. In India, demand for coal imports in 2030 is projected to be almost double the demand in 2005, as the country continues to encounter problems with coal production and transportation within its borders. Japan, lacking coal resources of its own, is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of coal in 2030. Historically, Japan has relied on China for coal imports, but recently it has initiated investments in coal production in other countries (including Russia) in order to improve the security of its coal supply [ 33 ]. South Korea also is pro

jected to continue importing most of the coal it con

sumes. With planned increases in coal-fired capacity, South Korea and Taiwan together are projected to main

tain their share of world steam coal imports at about 21 percent in 2030. Europe, Middle East, and Africa 

### Total coal imports to the Europe/Mediterranean market (including the Middle East and Africa) will remain fairly flat at their 2005 levels throughout the projection period (Figure 59). For most European countries with increas

ing emphasis on natural gas in the power sector, coal becomes a less significant component of the fuel mix for electricity generation. In Turkey, however, economic expansion and steel industry growth partially offset the decline in Europe’s coal imports. The initial increase in coal trade to Europe in the projections also is the result of the phaseout of European mining subsidies and higherdemand for lower sulfur coal. The demand for lower sulfur coal causes an increase in the projected share ofEurope’s coal imports that originates from South America and Eurasia.
The Americas 

### The United States is projected to import 2.1 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2030, 1.3 quadrillion Btu more than in 2005.

58 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1995 2005 2010 2020 203 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Quadrillion Btu History Projections

Europe/Mediterranean Asia Total

Americas 

### Figure 59. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2030

Sources: History: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast , Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, November 2006); International Energy Agency, Coal Informa

tion 2006 (Paris, France, August 2006), and previous issues; and Energy Information Administration (EIA), Quarterly Coal Report , October-December 2005, DOE/EIA-0121(2005/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2006), and previous issues; Btu con

versions from short tons are estimates by EIA’s Office of Inte

grated Analysis and Forecasting. Projections: EIA, National Energy Modeling System run IEO2007.D032707B.

### Although still a small share of U.S. consumption, at 6.1 percent, that would represent a shift for the United States from being a net exporter to being a net importer. With declining productivity and mining difficulties in Central Appalachia, and with rising demand for coal in the Southeast, imports are expected to become increas

ingly competitive with domestic U.S. coal production. Already, plans are being made to expand U.S. ports to accommodate coal imports. For example, Kinder Mor

gan Energy Partners LP is adding 9 million tons (roughly 0.2 quadrillion Btu) of coal import capacity at its Virginia port facilities in early 2008 [ 34 ]. South America is expected to be an important source of coal imports to the United States and the third-largest exporter of coal worldwide in 2030. In recent years, Can

ada has been the largest importer of U.S. coal. AlthoughOntario’s revised plan to close its four remaining coalfired generation plants by 2014 could be delayed, exports of U.S. steam coal to Canada in 2030 are pro

jected to be about 10 million tons (0.2 quadrillion Btu) below their 2005 level [ 35 ]. Brazil is planning a 39-percent increase in steelmaking capacity by 2010 [ 36 ]. With rich reserves of iron ore but no coking-grade coal, Brazil’s steel industry will require an increase in imports of coking coal from Australia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States. Its total imports of coking coal are projected to grow from about 0.3 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 0.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Much of the steam coal imported by the countries of Central and South America is expected to come from producers in South Africa and also from Colombia. 

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Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), Table 2.5
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(Paris, France, August 2006), p. II.23. 7. Ontario Ministry of Energy, “Electricity Informa

tion,” web site www.energy.gov.on.ca (accessed March 1, 2007); T. Hamilton, “Keep Coal Longer, Ontario Urged,” Toronto Star (November 14, 2006), web site www.thestar.com; and S. Hooks, Platts Coal Trader (January 25, 2006). 8. Energy Information Administration, International

Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), Table 5.4, web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea; and International Energy Agency, Databases for the Coal Information 2006 , web site http://data.iea.org. 9. “Germany’s Extraordinary Dash-For-Coal,”

McCloskey’s Coal Report, No. 134 (May 5, 2006), pp. 1-3. 10. International Energy Agency, Databases for the Coal Information 2006 , web site http://data.iea.org. 11. Korea East-West Power Co., Ltd., web site www. ewp.co.kr; Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd., web site www.kosep.co.kr; Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd., web site www.komipo.co.kr; Korea Western Power Co., Ltd, web site www.westernpower.co.kr; Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd., web site www. kospo.co.kr. 12. International Iron and Steel Institute, web site www.worldsteel.org.13. International Energy Agency, Coal Industry Advisory Board, Workshop Report: “Coal-to-Liquids an Alternative Oil Supply?” (Paris, France, November 2, 2006), web site www.iea.org/Textbase/Work/ workshopdetail.asp?WS_ID=273; “Coal-to-Liquids Technology: A PLATTS.COM News Feature” (December 19, 2006), web site www.platts.com/ Coal/Resources/News%20Features/ctl/index. xml; J. Chadwick, “Biggest Chinese Coal Mining Company Plans Huge Coal to Liquids Pro

gramme,” Mineweb (January 24, 2007), web site www.mineweb.net; W. Qi, “China Cools Down Coal Liquefaction,” Online Asia Times (October 4, 2006), web site www.atimes.com. 14. Government of India, Central Electricity Authority, Power Scenario at a Glance (January 2007), web site www.cea.nic.in; Government of India, Central Elec

tricity Authority, 11th Plan Shelf of Thermal Power Projects , web site www.cea.nic.in (accessed March 7, 2007). 15. Government of India, Power Finance Corporation, Ltd., “Ultra Mega Power Projects,” web site http:// pfc.gov.in/umpp.htm (accessed March 7, 2007); S. Wadhera, Director (Projects), Power Finance60 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Corporation Ltd., “Development of Ultra Mega Power Projects,” presentation at Indian Power Sec

tor: Challenges and Investment Opportunities Con

ference (New Delhi, India, May 11-13, 2006), web site http://powermin.nic.in; and “India Awards Sasan, Mundra,” Power in Asia , No. 469 (January 5, 2007), pp. 1-3. 16. Commission of the European Communities, Com

mission Staff Working Paper—Energy Dialogue with Russia, Update on Progress , SEC(2004)114 (Brussels, Belgium, January 28, 2004), pp. 37-57, web site www.europa.eu.int. 17. “EiEE New/Repowering Generation Project Tracker—September 2005,” Energy in East Europe, No. 72 (September 16, 2005), pp. 9-39. 18. Republic of South Africa, Department of Minerals and Energy, Media Release, “Economic Cluster Media Briefing, Minister Alec Erwin, Cape Town” (February 12, 2007), web site www.dme.gov.za; and S. Benton, “Three Mothballed Power Stations About To Come Back Into Action,” BuaNews (Feb

ruary 13, 2007), web site www.allafrica.com. 19. R. Chalmers, “Eskom Power Scramble To Keep SA Plugged In,” Business Day (Johannesburg) (January29, 2007), web site www.allafrica.com; C. Thompson, “CVRD Seen Building Mozambique Mine in Late 06” (Reuters, September 4, 2006), web site http://za.today.reuters.com; Global Insight, “New Energy Policy Sought by Tanzania” (October 12, 2006), web site http://myinsight.globalinsight. com; Global Insight, “Zambia Seeks to Privatise Coal Mine and Construct New Power Station” (Jan

uary 10, 2007), web site http://myinsight. globalinsight.com; Global Insight, “China and Zim

babwe Work Together To Set Up Coal Mine and Power Stations” (June 13, 2006), web site http:// myinsight.globalinsight.com; Global Insight, “Abundant Reserves of Coal Boost Botswana’s Energy Plans” (November 13, 2006), web site http://myinsight.globalinsight.com. 20. E. van de Venter, “Sasol Coal-to-Liquids Develop

ments,” presentation at Gasification Technologies Council Conference (San Francisco, CA, October 10-12, 2005), web site www.gasification.org. 21. International Iron and Steel Institute, web site www.worldsteel.org; and Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), Table E.4, web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. 22. D. Kinch, “Brazilian Crude Steel Output To Pass 50m tpy,” Metal Bulletin (August 30, 2006); and “Brazil Invests in Steel Production Getting Ready for Global Boom,” Brazzil Mag (November 24, 2006), web site www.brazzilmag.com. 23. “Government Estimates Coal-Fired Generation Potential of 5,250MW,” Business News Americas (October 16, 2006); “Governments in Talks Over Coal-Fired Project to Boost Power Exports,” Busi

ness News Americas (March 3, 2006); and “Rio Grande do Sul: US$5bn To Double Capacity by 2010,” Business News Americas (May 24, 2004). 24. The State of Queensland, Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Queensland’s Ports (October 2005), p. 17, web site www.nrm.qld.gov.au/ mines/coal/rail_ports.html. 25. SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, Novem

ber 2006). 26. SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, Novem

ber 2006). 27. SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, Novem

ber 2006). 28. “Russian Sales Collapse Threatened,” McCloskey’s Coal Report, No. 124 (November 25, 2005), p. 3; and “KRU/SBU To Build New Murmansk Cape Port,” McCloskey’s Coal Report, No. 133 (April 21, 2006), p. 1. 29. F. Wong and A. Moon, “China Coal Firms Cut Exports to Korea, Japan” (Reuters, February 13, 2007), web site http://au.biz.yahoo.com. 30. Global Insight, “China: Coal Export Quotas Slashed in China” (February 26, 2007), web site http:// myinsight.globalinsight.com. 31. SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY’s Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 15, No. 3 (London, UK, Novem

ber 2006). 32. “Gov’t Raises Tariffs on Coal, Mineral Exports,” Viet Nam News (December 12, 2006), web site http://vietnamnews.vnanet.vn. 33. Kommersant, “Evraz Group Invites Japanese to Yakutia” (September 22, 2005), web site www. kommersant.com. 34. “From Export to Import,” The Virginian-Pilot (Feb

ruary 1, 2007), p. 1. 35. Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling system, run IEO2007.D032707B. 36. D. Kinch, “Brazilian Crude Steel Output To Pass 50m tpy,” Metal Bulletin News Alter Service (August 30, 2006).

# Chapter 6 

# Electricity

World electricity generation nearly doubles in the IEO2007 reference case from 2004 to 2030. In 2030, generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to exceed generation in the OECD countries by 30 percent.

In the IEO2007 reference case, world demand for elec

tricity advances strongly from 2004 to 2030. Global elec

tricity generation increases by 2.4 percent per year over the projection period, from 16,424 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 30,364 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 60). Much of the growth in electric power demand is pro

jected for nations outside the OECD. Although the non-OECD nations consumed 26 percent less electricity than the OECD nations in 2004, total electricity genera

tion in the non-OECD region in 2030 is projected to exceed generation in the OECD by 30 percent (Figure 61).
Total electricity demand in the non-OECD nations is expected to grow from 2004 to 2030 at an annual rate that is nearly triple the rate of growth for electricity demandin the OECD. The difference reflects the relative maturity of electricity infrastructure in the more developedOECD region, as well as the expectation that populations in the OECD countries generally will grow slowly or decline over the next 25 years. In addition, fast-pacedgrowth in the developing non-OECD economies translates to rising standards of living and robust growth in consumer demand for lighting and appliances. Total electricity generation in the non-OECD region increases by an average of 3.5 percent per year in the IEO2007 ref

erence case, as compared with a projected annual growth rate for OECD electricity generation that aver

ages 1.3 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Among the energy end-use sectors, the most rapid growth in total world demand for electricity is projected for the buildings (residential and commercial) sectors. Worldwide, total electric power consumption on a Btu basis in the buildings sectors increases by an average of 2.6 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, as compared with an average growth rate of 2.2 percent per year for total electricity consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors combined. The most rapid rate of increase in electricity demand is projected for the commercial sector, both worldwide and by region, reflecting the expected growth of service activities as strong economic growth, particularly among the non-OECD countries, increases the demand for officespace, hospitals, hotels, and other institutions or organizations (Figure 62). 

# Electricity Supply by Energy Source The mix of primary fuels used to generate electricity has changed a great deal over the past two decades on a

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 61 16,424 19,554 22,289 24,959 27,537 30,364

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Billion Kilowatthours History Projections 

### Figure 60. World Electric Power Generation, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Billion Kilowatthours History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD 

### Figure 61. World Electric Power Generation by Region, 1980-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### worldwide basis. Coal has continued to be the fuel most widely used for electricity generation, although genera

tion from nuclear power increased rapidly from the 1970s through the mid-1980s, and natural-gas-fired gen

eration grew rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s. The use of oil for electricity generation has been declining since the mid-1970s, when the oil embargo by Arab producers in 1973-1974 and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 produced oil price shocks. More recently, high world oil prices—which have been trending upward since 2003—have further eroded the role of petroleum in the power sector. Higher world oil prices have encouraged a shift from oil-fired generation to natural gas and nuclear power and have reinforced coal’s important role as an energy source for electricity generation. Today, relatively high world oil prices in combination with concerns about the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions are raising renewed interest in nuclear power and renewable energy sources as alternatives to the use of coal and nat

ural gas for electric power generation. Projections of future coal use are particularly sensitive to assumptions about future policies that might be adopted to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal In the IEO2007 reference case, while natural gas is the fastest-growing energy source for electricity generation worldwide, coal continues to provide the largest share of the energy used for electric power production (Figure63). In 2004, coal-fired generation accounted for 41 percent of world electricity supply; in 2030, its share is pro

jected to be 45 percent. Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas make coal-fired generation more attractive economically, particularly in nations that are rich in coal resources, which include China, India, and the United States. The 2.8-percent projected annual growth rate for coal-fired electricity generation worldwide is exceededonly by the 3.3-percent rate projected for natural-gasfired generation.

Natural Gas Although natural gas is the fastest-growing energy source for electric power generation in the IEO2007 ref

erence case projection—increasing from 3,231 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 7,423 billion kilowatthours in 2030—the total amount of electricity generated from nat

ural gas continues to be only about one-half the total for coal, even in 2030. Natural-gas-fired combined-cycle capacity is an attractive choice for new power plants because of its fuel efficiency, operating flexibility (it can be brought on line in minutes rather than the hours it takes for coal-fired and other generating capacity), rela

tively short construction times (months instead of the years that coal-fired and nuclear power plants typically require), and investment costs that are lower than those for other technologies. Natural gas also burns more cleanly than coal or petroleum products, and as more governments begin implementing national or regional plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions they may encourage the use of natural gas to displace oil and coal.
Oil With world oil prices projected to reach $59 per barrel (in real 2005 dollars) at the end of the IEO2007 projectionin 2030, the expected rate of increase in oil use for electricity generation is the slowest among all energy sources. Worldwide, oil-fired generation is projected to increase by an average of 0.9 percent per year from 2004

62 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent per Year

World OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 62. Average Annual Change in End-Use Sector Electricity Demand, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). Oil Nuclear Renewables Natural Gas Coal 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 Billion Kilowatthours

2004 2030 

### Figure 63. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### to 2030; and in the OECD nations, it is projected to decline by 0.3 percent per year. Only the non-OECD Middle East region, with its ample oil reserves and a cur

rent one-third share of total electricity generation fueled by oil, is projected to continue relying heavily on oil to meet its electricity needs.

Nuclear Power The prospects for nuclear power have improved in recent years. Higher capacity utilization rates have been reported for many existing nuclear facilities, and most of the existing plants in OECD countries and the countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (including Russia) are expected to be granted extensions to their operating lives. In the IEO2007 reference case, electricity genera

tion from nuclear power plants worldwide is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.3 percent per year, from 2,619 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 3,619 billion kilowatthours in 2030. In past editions of the IEO , it was anticipated that nuclear generation would decline in the later years of the projections, as aging nuclear reactors (especially among the OECD nations) were expected to be taken out of operation and not to be replaced. The role of nuclear power in meeting future electricity demand has been reconsidered more recently, given concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, issues related to plant safety, radioactive waste disposal, and the proliferationof nuclear weapons, which continue to raise public concerns in many countries, may hinder the development of new nuclear power reactors. The projection for total electricity generation from the world’s nuclear power plants in 2030 in the IEO2007 ref

erence case is 14 percent higher than the corresponding projection in IEO2006 . On a regional basis, only OECD Europe—where some national governments, including those of Germany and Belgium, still have plans in place to phase out nuclear programs entirely—is projected to see a decline in nuclear power generation after 2010. Non-OECD Asia, in contrast, is poised for a robust expansion of nuclear generation. For example, in China, electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.7 percent from 2004 to 2030, and in India it is projected to increase by an aver

age of 9.1 percent per year.
Hydroelectricity and Other Renewables In the IEO2007 reference case, electricity generation from hydroelectric and other renewable energy resources is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent from 2004 to 2030. High oil and natu

ral gas prices, which are expected to persist in the mid-term, encourage the use of renewables. Like nuclear power, renewable energy sources are attractive for envi

ronmental reasons. Further, government policies and incentives to increase the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation encourage the devel

opment of renewable energy even when it cannot com

pete economically with fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the renewable share of world electricity generation falls slightly in the projection, from 19 percent in 2004 to 16 percent in 2030, as growth in the consumption of both coal and natural gas in the electricity generation sector worldwide exceeds the growth in renewable energy consumption. The capital costs of new power plants using renewable fuels remain relatively high in compar

ison with those for plants fired with coal or natural gas.

The IEO2007 projections for hydroelectricity and other renewable energy resources include only on-grid renewables. Non-marketed (noncommercial) biofuels from plant and animal sources are an important source of energy, particularly in non-OECD economies, and the International Energy Agency has estimated that some 2.5 billion people in developing countries depend on tra

ditional biomass as their main fuel for cooking [ 1 ].Non-marketed fuels and dispersed renewables (renewable energy consumed on the site of production, such as energy from solar panels used to heat water) are notincluded in the projections, however, because comprehensive data on their use are not available. In combination, electricity generation from nuclear power and from renewable energy sources is projected to increase by 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The development of non-fossil energy sources in electricity markets may be especially attractive to countries that are attempting to diversify away from fossil fuels, both to address energy security issues and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 

# Regional Electricity Markets
In the IEO2007 reference case, the highest projected growth rates for electricity generation are for nations in the non-OECD region (Figure 64). Robust population growth and rising personal incomes in the non-OECD nations drive the projected growth in demand for elec

tric power. In the OECD countries, where electric power infrastructures are relatively mature, national popula

tions generally are expected to grow slowly or decline, and GDP growth is expected to be slower than in the developing nations, increases in demand for electricity are projected to be much slower than those in the non-OECD countries. For example, electricity demand in OECD North America is projected to grow by an annual average of 1.5 percent from 2004 to 2030, which is less than one-half the projected rates of increase in China and in India.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 63

### OECD Economies
North America 

### In 2004, electricity generation in North America totaled 4,619 billion kilowatthours and accounted for 28 percent of the world’s total generation. That share is projected to decline over the course of the projection period, as the non-OECD nations experience fast-paced growth in electric power demand. Still, North America is projected to account for 23 percent of the world’s electric power generation in 2030. The United States is the largest consumer of electricity in North America and is projected to remain in that posi

tion through 2030 (Figure 65). U.S. electricity genera

tion—including both generation by electric power producers and on-site generation—is projected to increase steadily, at an average annual rate of 1.4 per

cent. Canada, like the United States, has a mature elec

tricity market, and its generation is projected to increase by 1.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Mexico’s elec

tricity generation grows at a faster rate—averaging 3.3 percent per year through 2030—reflecting the relatively undeveloped state of the country’s electric power infrastructure. There are large differences in the mix of energy sources used to generate electricity in the three countries that make up OECD North America, and those differences are likely to become more pronounced in the future (Figure 66). In the United States, coal is the leading source of energy for power generation, accounting for 52 percent of the 2004 total; but in Canada, renewable energy sources (predominantly hydroelectricity) pro

vided 60 percent of the nation’s electricity generation in 2004. Most of Mexico’s electricity generation currently is fueled by petroleum-based liquids and natural gas,which together accounted for 66 percent of its total electricity generation in 2004. In the reference case projections for 2030, U.S. reliance on coal is even greater than it was in 2004; Canada’s hydropower resources (along with some generation from wind capacity scheduled tobe built) continue to provide nearly 60 percent of its electricity; and the natural gas share of Mexico’s total electricity generation increases to 54 percent (from 35 percent in 2004).

64 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 1.5 0.8 1.4

2.3 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.9 OECD North America Europe Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia China

India Other Asia Middle East Africa Central/South America Avera g e Annual Percent Chan g e 

### Figure 64. Annual Growth in Electricity Generation by Region, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Billion Kilowatthours

United States Canada Mexico 

### Figure 65. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Total

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear

United States Canada Mexico 

### Figure 66. Net Electricity Generation in OECD North America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### In the United States, electricity generation from naturalgas-fired power plants is projected to increase through 2020, as recently constructed plants are utilized more fully to meet growing demand. After 2020, generation from new coal-fired and nuclear power plants is expected to meet most of the growth in electricity demand. Total generation from nuclear power plants is projected to increase, from 789 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 896 billion kilowatthours in 2030, as the result of expected capacity increases that include 12,500 mega

watts at newly built plants and 3,000 megawatts from uprates of existing plants (offset by 2,600 megawatts of retirements). Generation from renewable energy sources also is projected to expand, from 370 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 522 billion kilowatthours in 2030, stimulated by technology improvements, higher fossil fuel prices, and the expansion and extension of the Federal production tax credit for renewable generation through December 31, 2007, enacted in the Energy Pol

icy Act of 2005. 15 

### In Canada, generation from natural gas and from coal isprojected to increase, and oil-fired generation is projected to decline. The Province of Ontario had announced plans to close all its coal-fired plants by the end of 2007, but that date has since been pushed back to 2011. Further, in late 2006, the Ontario Power Authorityrecommended that the government consider maintaining 3,000 megawatts of coal-fired capacity until at least 2014 to ensure that no power shortages would occur as aresult of possible delays in the addition of new generating capacity [ 2 ]. In the IEO2007 reference case, Canada’s coal use for electricity generation continues to increase throughout the projection period, by an average of 1.7 percent per year; natural-gas-fired generation increases by 2.8 percent per year; generation from nuclear power increases by 1.5 percent per year; and renewable genera

tion increases by 1.3 percent per year. Several large- and small-scale hydroelectric facilities currently are either planned or under construction in Canada. Hydro-Québec has announced plans to con

struct a 768-megawatt powerhouse near Eastman and a smaller 120-megawatt facility at Sarcelle in Québec, both of which are expected to be fully commissioned by 2011 [ 3 ]. Other planned hydroelectric projects include a 1,550-megawatt plant at La Romaine in Québec, a 2,000- megawatt project at the Lower Churchill River/Gull Island site in Newfoundland and Labrador, and a 1,500-megawatt project (the Conawapa Generating Station) on the Lower Nelson River in Manitoba [ 4 ]. The IEO2007 reference case does not anticipate that all the planned projects will be constructed, but given Can

ada’s historical experience with hydropower and the commitments for construction, new hydroelectric capacity accounts for more than one-half of the 16,000 megawatts of additional renewable capacity projected to be added in Canada between 2004 and 2030. While hydropower plays a major role in Canada’s renewable electricity generation, the country also has plans to expand wind-powered generating capacity in the future. In 2006, the country’s installed wind capacity was doubled, to 1,460 megawatts, giving Canada the world’s twelfth-largest national installed wind capacity [ 5 ]. In the Canadian government’s 2005 budget, its Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) was expanded to support the development of 4,000 megawatts of wind power by 2010, with qualifying wind producers eligible to receive an incentive of $0.01 per kilowatthour (Cana

dian dollars) for the first 10 years of production from new installations [ 6 ]. In addition, several Provincial gov

ernments have instituted their own incentives to sup

port the construction of new wind capacity. The incentives (along with sustained higher world oil and natural gas prices) are expected to support the projected increase in Canada’s use of wind power for electricity generation. OECD Europe 

### Electricity generation in the nations of OECD Europe isprojected to grow slowly, as a result of their slow population growth and their already well-established electricity markets. The region’s total generation increases by an average of 0.8 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, from 3,250 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 3,564 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 4,044 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Natural gas is expected to be by far the fastest-growing fuel for electricity generation in OECD Europe, increasing at an average rate of 3.3 per

cent per year from 2004 to 2030, while high world oil prices and environmental concerns lead to decreases in the use of petroleum and coal (Figure 67). Renewable electricity generation in OECD Europe is also projected to increase over the period from 2004 to 2030. The use of renewables (primarily nonhydropower) for electricity generation is projected to grow by 1.4 per

cent per year on average from 2004 to 2030. Although most of the economically feasible hydroelectric resources in Europe already have been developed, the countries of OECD Europe have installed substantial amounts of alternative renewable energy capacity— consisting mainly of wind turbines—over the past sev

eral years. At present, 7 of the world’s 10 largest markets for wind-powered electricity generation are in Europe, 16 

### and the 27-member European Union accounted for 65 percent of the world’s total installed wind capacity as of

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 65 15 The U.S. projections, which are consistent with those in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case, assume that the production tax credit will expire at the end of 2007. 16 According to the Global Wind Energy Council, the 10 countries with the largest installed wind capacity are Germany, Spain, the United States, India, Denmark, China, Italy, United Kingdom, Portugal, and France.

### the end of 2006 [ 7]. With many European countries set

ting new goals to increase nonhydropower renewable electricity generation, the role of wind power in meeting OECD Europe’s electricity demand is likely to grow in the future. Several countries in OECD Europe have policies in effect to reduce their use of nuclear power in the future. As a result, nuclear electricity generation in the region is pro

jected to decline through 2025. After 2025, however, modest growth is projected for the region’s nuclear power capacity, and its total nuclear electricity genera

tion begins to rise at the end of the projection. In the IEO2007 reference case, nuclear capacity in OECD Europe is projected to fall from 134 gigawatts in 2004 to 114 gigawatts in 2030 (as compared with the larger decline projected in the IEO2006 reference case, to 95 gigawatts in 2030). Many nations in the region are reas

sessing the potential role of nuclear power in meeting demand for electricity, particularly because it is an energy source that does not produce carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, the IEO2007 reference case projec

tion anticipates that more nuclear power plant operating lives will be extended and fewer plants will be retired in the mid-term, and that there will be some new builds of nuclear capacity in France, Finland, and possibly other countries in OECD Europe.

OECD Asia 

### Total electricity generation in OECD Asia is projected to increase by 1.4 percent per year on average, from 1,586billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,259 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Japan accounts for the largest share of electricity generation in the region today and continues to do so in the mid-term projection, despite its having the slowest-growing electricity market in the region (Figure 68). Japan’s electricity generation increases at a 1.0-percent average annual rate in the IEO2007 reference case, as compared with projected rates of 1.4 percent per year in Australia/New Zealand and 2.3 percent per year in South Korea. Japan’s electricity markets can be char

acterized as mature, and its aging population and rela

tively slow projected economic growth in the mid-term translate to slow growth in demand for electric power. In contrast, both Australia/New Zealand and South Korea are projected to have more robust income and population growth in the mid-term, leading to more rapid growth in demand for electricity. The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely among the three economies that make up the OECD Asia region (Figure 69). In Japan, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power make up the bulk of the current electric power mix, with natural gas and nuclear accounting for about 56 percent of total generation and coal another 25 percent. The remaining portion is split between renewables and petroleum-based liquids. In 2030, Japan is projected to rely on natural gas, nuclear power, and coal for about 83 percent of its electric power supply, with coal’s share declining to 19 percent as both natural gas and nuclear power displace its use.
Australia and New Zealand, with their rich coal resources, rely on coal for nearly three-fourths of their combined electricity generation. Another 18 percent comes from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydropower. The Australia/New Zealand region uses negligible amounts of oil for electricity generation and no nuclear power, and that is not expected to change over the projection period. Natural-gas-fired generation

66 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Billion Kilowatthours

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 

### Figure 67. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Europe by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Billion Kilowatthours

Japan Australia/New Zealand South Korea 

### Figure 68. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### is expected to grow strongly in the region, reducing coal’s share in 2030. In South Korea, coal and nuclear power currently pro

vide 44 percent and 36 percent of total electricity genera

tion, respectively. Strong expansion is projected for South Korea’s nuclear power program: in 2030, nuclear electricity generation is projected to be nearly equal to coal-fired generation, with both providing about 41 per

cent of the country’s total electricity.

Non-OECD Economies Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 

### Total electricity generation in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.3 per

cent per year in the IEO2007 reference case, from 1,497 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 2,036 billion kilowatt

hours in 2015 and 2,731 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Russia, the region’s largest economy, accounted for 59 percent of its total generation in 2004 and is projected to account for 55 percent of the regional total in 2030 (Figure 70). The non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region as a whole possesses ample natural gas resources. As a result, it is expected that much of its electricity supply will continue to be provided from natural-gas-fired power plants. Natural gas is the region’s fastest-growing source of electric power in the IEO2007 reference case, increasing by 3.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Coal-fired and nuclear power plants also are important regional sources of electricity generation, with projected annual increases averaging 2.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respec

tively, over the same period. Renewable generation, largely from hydroelectric facilities, is projected to increase more slowly, at an average rate of 0.7 percent per year, largely as a result of repairs and expansions at existing hydroelectric projects rather than new hydro

power or nonhydropower renewable generating facili

ties. Liquids play only a minor role in the electric power markets of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, and their role is not expected to expand in the future. Russia has announced plans to increase its nuclear power capacity over the mid-term, in order to lessen the reliance of its power sector on natural gas and preserve what is becoming one of its most valuable export com

modities. As a result, electricity production from Rus

sia’s nuclear power plants is projected to grow by 3.2 percent per year on average in the reference case, while natural-gas-fired generation increases at the slower rate of 2.5 percent per year. Only 3 gigawatts of new nuclear generating capacity has become operational in Russia since 1991. In 2006, Rus

sian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov approved an ambi

tious plan to complete the construction of 10 new 1,000-megawatt reactors and begin construction on another 10 reactors by 2015 [ 8 ]. There is some question, however, as to whether the plan can be achieved within the announced time frame. One problem is that tariffs on nuclear power currently are much lower than those on thermal generation, and in the past the Russian nuclear power industry has not had sufficient funds to completethe construction on new reactors on schedule. The Russian government has acknowledged that raising nuclear tariffs to parity with the tariffs on thermal generation will be necessary to attract the private-sector capital investment needed for its nuclear power expansion plan to succeed, and the plan includes assumptions that both

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 67 2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Total

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear

Japan Australia/ New Zealand South Korea 

### Figure 69. Net Electricity Generation in OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Billion Kilowatthours

Russia Other 

### Figure 70. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### capital costs and operating costs will be reduced. Never

theless, the IEO2007 reference case projects some delay in meeting the current construction schedule. In the out

look, a net 5 gigawatts of nuclear capacity is added to Russia’s existing 22 gigawatts by 2015. Thereafter, it is likely that another 15 gigawatts of nuclear capacity will be added by 2030.

Non-OECD Asia 

### Non-OECD Asia—led by China and India—is projected to be the region with the fastest growth in electric power generation worldwide, averaging 4.2 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The nations of non-OECD Asia are expected to see continued robust economic growth, with corresponding increases in demand for electricity to power lighting, heating and cooling, household appli

ances, and other electronic devices associated with ris

ing standards of living. Total electricity generation in the non-OECD Asia region nearly triples over the projection period, from 3,517 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 10,185 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 71).China and India account for the world’s largest projected increases in national electric power demand over the 2004 to 2030 period. China already is the world’s largest coal consumer, and India is the third largest (after the United States). In 2004, the combined coal use of China and India was equal to that of the entire OECD region, and in 2030 it is projected to exceed the OECD total by more than 85 percent. A sizable portion of the coal consumed in China and India is expected to be usedfor power generation. In China, the coal share of generation is projected to reach 84 percent in 2030, despite higher annual growth rates for natural-gas-fired and nuclear power generation (Figure 72). In India, coal’s share is projected to decline to 69 percent of the coun

try’s total power generation in 2030. In both China and India, consumption of petroleum liq

uids for electricity generation is projected to remain modest, as relatively high world oil prices make other fuels economically more attractive. Some increases in oil use for electricity generation are projected for other countries in the region, because many rural areas that currently do not have access to transmission lines are expected to replace noncommercial energy sources with electricity from diesel-fired generators until transmis

sion infrastructure can be put into place. Nevertheless, the liquids share of electricity generation in non-OECD Asia is projected to fall from 4 percent in 2004 to 2 per

cent in 2030. Non-OECD Asia is expected to lead the world in the installation of new nuclear capacity over the projection period, accounting for 51 percent of the projected net increment in nuclear capacity worldwide. China is pro

jected to add 36 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030,India 17 gigawatts, and the other countries of nonOECD Asia a combined 6 gigawatts. Strong growth innuclear capacity in China and India will help both countries improve fuel diversification in their power sectors, although thermal generation will continue to dominate in both countries. In China, the nuclear share of total electricity generation is projected to rise from 2 percent in 2004 to 5 percent in 2030, and in India it is projected to rise from 2 percent to 8 percent. Although electricity generation from renewable energy sources is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent, the renewable share of total generation declines as the shares if fossil fuels and nuclear power

68 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 Billion Kilowatthours

China India Other 

### Figure 71. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2030 2004 2030 2004 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Total

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear

China India Other 

### Figure 72. Net Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### grow more strongly in the region. The renewable share of non-OECD Asian generation falls from 16 percent in 2004 to 9 percent in 2030. Much of the growth in non-OECD Asia’s renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities. Several countries in the region have hydro

power facilities either planned or under construction. In India, for instance, about 12,020 megawatts of hydro

electric capacity is under construction, and letters of award have been issued for the 1,000-megawatt Tehri Pass project (scheduled for completion by 2012) and the 1,200-megawatt Kotlibhel-IA project [ 9 ]. China also has a number of large-scale hydroelectric projects under construction, including the 18,200-megawatt Three Gorges Dam project (expected to be fully operational by 2009) and the 12,600-megawatt Xiluodu project on the Jisha River (scheduled for completion in 2020, as part of a 14-facility hydropower development plan) [ 10 ].

Middle East 

### Electric power generation in the Middle East region isprojected to grow by 2.9 percent per year, from 567 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 1,185 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 73). Most of the countries in the MiddleEast region have well-established electricity infrastructures, with electrification rates above 90 percent [ 11 ]. (Yemen, the region’s poorest economy, is the exception,with only an estimated 50 percent of the population having access to electric power in 2002.) Nevertheless, population and income growth in the region are expected to result in growing demand for electric power in the future. Natural gas is the largest source of energy for electricity generation in the Middle East, and it is expected to continue in that role. In 2004, natural-gas-fired genera

tion accounted for 58 percent of the region’s total power supply. In 2030, the natural gas share is projected to be 61 percent, as the petroleum share of generation decreases slightly over the projection period. Petroleum is a valuable export commodity for many nations of the Middle East, and there is increasing interest in the use of domestic natural gas for electricity generation in order to make more oil assets available for export. The Middle East is the only region in the world where petroleum liquids are expected to continue accounting for a sizable portion of the fuel mix for electricity genera

tion throughout the projection period. The Middle East region as a whole relied on oil-fired capacity to meet 34 percent of its total generation needs in 2004, and that share is projected to fall only slightly, to 32 percent, in 2030. The rich petroleum resources in the Middle East are expected to allow nations of the region to continue using oil for electricity generation, even as high world oil prices result in the displacement of oil in otherregions. Oil-fired generation in the Middle East is projected to increase by an average of 2.6 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Other energy sources make only minor contributions to the Middle East region’s electricity supply. Israel is the only country in the region that uses significant amounts of coal to generate electric power [ 12 ], and Iran is theonly one projected to add nuclear capacity, with completion of its Bushehr 1 reactor expected by 2010. Finally,because there is little incentive for countries in the Middle East to increase their use of renewable energy sources, renewables are projected to account for a mod

est 2 percent of the region’s total electricity generation throughout the projection period.

Africa 

### In Africa, demand for electricity is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in the IEO2007 ref

erence case. Thermal generation accounted for most of the region’s total electricity supply in 2004 and is expected to be in the same position through 2030. Coal-fired power plants, which were the region’s largest source of electricity in 2004, accounting for 45 percent of total generation, are projected to provide a 46-percent share in 2030, as natural-gas-fired generation expands strongly from 25 percent of the total in 2004 to 38 percent in 2030 (Figure 74). At present, South Africa’s two nuclear reactors are the only ones operating in the region, accounting for about 3 percent of Africa’s total electricity generation. In the IEO2007 reference case, 1,000 megawatts of new nuclear capacity (net) is projected to become operational in Africa over the 2004 to 2030 period; however, the nuclear share of total generation is expected to fall to 2 percent in 2030.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 69 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 Billion Kilowatthours

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 

### Figure 73. Net Electricity Generation in the Middle East by Fuel, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Hydroelectricity and other marketed renewable energy sources are expected to grow slowly in Africa. As they have in the past, non-marketed renewables can be expected to continue providing energy to Africa’s rural areas; however, it is often difficult for African nations to find funding or international support for larger com

mercial projects. Still, plans for several hydroelectric projects in the region have been advanced recently, and they may help boost supplies of marketed renewable energy in the mid-term. Several (although not all) of the announced projects are expected to be completed in the mid-term outlook, allowing the region’s consumption of marketed renewable energy to grow by 0.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. In 2006, the Export-Import Bank of China signed a mem

orandum of understanding with the government of Mozambique to provide a $2.3 billion loan package that would include construction of the 1,300-megawatt Mphanda Nkuwa hydroelectric dam on the Zambezi River [ 13 ]. In addition, there are plans to expand the existing hydroelectric facility at Cahora Bassa and to construct a new North Bank Cahora Bassa dam. TheAfrican Development Fund has estimated that the additions could increase Mozambique’s installed generatingcapacity by 2,000 megawatts and raise its national electrification rate from 6 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2020 [ 14 ]. In Angola, there are plans to refurbish existing hydropower facilities at Capanda and Cambambe andincrease their capacity to 520 megawatts and 700 megawatts, respectively in the near term [ 15 ]. Nigeria has plans to expand its renewable generating capacity by 3,500 megawatts in the mid-term, mostly in the form of small hydroelectric projects, in an attempt to diversify the country’s energy mix away from oil and natural gas [ 16 ].

Central and South America 

### Electricity generation in Central and South America is projected to increase steadily in the IEO2007 reference case, from 882 billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 1,838 billion kilowatthours in 2030 (Figure 75). Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is expected to remain its larg

est electricity producer as well, accounting for 54 percent of total projected electricity generation in the Central and South America region in 2030. Throughout Central and South America, significant shares of national electric power supplies are derived from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydro

power. In times of drought, such heavy reliance on hydroelectricity has been problematic, resulting in widespread power shortages. Hydroelectric generation accounted for 83 percent of Brazil’s total electricity sup

ply in 2004, and despite ongoing efforts to diversify the fuel mix for the country’s electricity generation, hydro

power is projected to remain Brazil’s predominantsource of electricity through 2030 (Figure 76). In combination, the other nations of Central and South America rely on hydropower for a smaller percentage of their electricity supply (51 percent in 2004); and in 2030, the share of hydropower and other renewable energysources in their combined fuel use for electricity generation is projected to be 47 percent. Robust growth in the use of natural gas and nuclear power is projected to lessen the region’s overall reliance on hydropower in the mid-term.

70 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007Oil Nuclear Renewables Natural Gas Coal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Billion Kilowatthours

2004 2030 

### Figure 74. Net Electricity Generation in Africa by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Billion Kilowatthours

Brazil Other 

### Figure 75. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Sys

tem for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# References

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 71 2004 2030 2004 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Total

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear

Brazil Other 

### Figure 76. Net Electricity Generation in Central and South America by Fuel, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Adminis

tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).



### 1. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), p. 431. 2. Global Insight, Inc., “OPA Recommends Canadian

Province of Ontario Keeps Coal-Fired Power Plants Open Until 2014” (November 16, 2006), web site www.globalinsight.com. 3. Hydro Quebec Production corporate web site,

Eastmain-1-A Powerhouse and Rupert Diversion: Infor

mation Document (February 2005), web site www. hydroquebec.com/en/. 4. Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Energy Out

look: The Reference Case 2006 (Ottawa, Ontario, Can

ada, 2006), p. 45; and J. Ritchie, “Major Investment Projects—Canada,” Presentation from the Biregion

al World Energy Council Forum for North America, Latin America, & the Caribbean, June 4-7, 2006, Lugar, Mexico, web site www.amedes.org.mx/ 2006_publicaciones_foro_biregional.html. 5. Canadian Wind Energy Association press release, “2006 A Record Breaking Year for the Global Wind Energy Industry with Canada now Ranking 12th in the World for Total Installed Wind Energy Capac

ity,” (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 8, 2007), web site www.canwea.ca. 6. IEA Wind Energy Annual, (Boulder, CO, June 2006),

web site www.ieawind.org, pp. 97 and 99. 7. Global Wind Energy Council Press Release, “Global

Wind Energy Markets Continue to Boom—2006 Another Record Year” (Brussels, Belgium, February 2, 2007), web site www.awea.org/newsroom/ index.html. 8. S. Mahnovski and K. Kovalenko, The Revival of

Nuclear Power in Russia? CERA Decision Brief (Cam

bridge, MA, March 2007), pp. 1, 7. 9. S. Saraf, “India Set To Revise Hydroelectric Policy,”

Power in Asia , No. 471 (February 1, 2007), pp. 8-9. 10. “Xiangjiaba Starts Construction,” Power in Asia , No. 467/468 (December 7, 2006), pp. 19-20. 11. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005 (Paris, France, November 2005), p. 188. 12. International Energy Agency, Energy Balances: Non-OECD Countries 2006 Edition . International Energy Agency Data Services (copyright 2007), web site www.iea.org/stats/eng/main.html. 13. “Mozambique: China to fund Mphanda Nkuwa hydropower dam,” (May 8, 2006), news @ hydro4africa, web site http://hydro4africa.net/

news. 14. African Development Fund Infrastructure Depart

ment, North, East and South Regions, Republic of Mozambique: Electricity IV Project Appraisal Report (February 2006), p. vii. 15. P. Tuson, “Power Developments in the Southern African Region,” IET Power Engineering Magazine, No. 109 (April 2006), web site www.iee.org/ oncomms/sector/power/magazine.cfm. 16. Global Insight, Inc., “Nigeria Targets 3,500MW from Hydroelectric Plants” (January 17, 2007), web site www.globalinsight.com.

# Chapter 7 

# Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In 2004, non-OECD emissions of carbon dioxide were greater than OECD emissions for the first time. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.

Carbon dioxide is the most abundant anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. In recent years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon diox

ide have been rising at a rate of about 0.5 percent per year, and because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, world energy use has emerged at the center of the climate change debate. In the IEO2007 refer

ence case, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. 17


### From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, largelybecause of a 17-percent increase in coal-related emissions in non-OECD Asia, while emissions from the OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent. The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time in history that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries exceeded those from the OECD countries (Figure 77). Further, because the projected average annual increase in emissions from 2004 to 2030 in the non-OECD countries (2.6 percent) is more than three times the increase projected for the OECD countries (0.8 percent), carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030, at 26.2 billion metric tons, are projected to exceed those from the OECD countries by 57 percent.

The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have changed over time. In 1990, emissions from petroleum and other liquids combustion made up an estimated 42 percent of the world total. In 2004, the petroleum share was 40 per

cent, and in 2030 its share is projected to be 36 percent, of the world total (Figure 78). Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion, which accounted for 19 percent of the total in 1990, increased to 20 percent of the 2004 total. That share is projected to rise to 21 percent in 2030. Coal’s share in 2004 was the same as its share in 1990, at 39 percent; however, its share is projected toincrease to 43 percent in 2030. Coal is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and it is the fastestgrowing energy source in the IEO2007 reference case projection.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 73 13 13 14 15 15 16 17

12 13 17 19 22 24 26

2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 10 20 30 Billion Metric Tons
OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 77. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030

Sources: 2003 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 Billion Metric Tons History Projections

Liquids
Natural Gas Coal Total 

### Figure 78. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

17 In keeping with current international practice, IEO2007 presents data on greenhouse gas emissions in billion metric tons carbon diox

ide equivalent. The figures can be converted to carbon equivalent units by multiplying by 12/44.

### The increasing share of coal is reflective of its important role in the energy mix of non-OECD countries—espe

cially China and India. In 1990, China and India com

bined for 13 percent of world emissions, but by 2004 that share had risen to 22 percent—largely because of a strong increase in coal use in these two countries. This trend is projected to continue; and by 2030, carbon diox

ide emissions from China and India combined are pro

jected to account for 31 percent of total world emissions, with China alone responsible for 26 percent of the world total. As both economies expand, coal will become a greater part of the world energy mix and play a corre

spondingly larger role in the composition of world car

bon dioxide emissions.
The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating “Annex I” countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5 percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, entered into force on February 16, 2005. Annex I coun

tries include the 24 original OECD countries, the Euro

pean Union, and 14 countries that are considered“economies in transition.” Although the Protocol is technically “in force,” it would have an effect on only one year of the IEO2007 forecast—2010. The IEO2007 projections do not explicitly include the impacts of the KyotoProtocol, because the treaty does not indicate the methods by which ratifying parties will implement their obligations. Moreover, the participants have been unable to agree on a second commitment period, nor on any actions that might occur after 2012. Until those issues are resolved, it will be difficult to project the effects of the Kyoto Protocol through 2030. 18 

### There are some signs that concerns about global climate change are beginning to affect the world fuel mix. In recent years, many countries have begun to express new interest in expanding their use of non-carbon-emitting nuclear power, in part to stem the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. The IEO2007 reference case projection for electricity generation from nuclear power in 2030 is up by almost 10 percent from the IEO2006 projection, reflecting a generally more favorable perception of nuclear power as an alternative to carbon-producing fossil fuels for electric power production. Many of the industrialized nations of OECD Europe have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and in the IEO2007 reference case the projected rate of decline in the region’s nuclear electric

ity generation is considerably slower, at 0.4 percent per year, than the rate of 1.0 percent per year that was pro

jected in the IEO2006 reference case. 

# Reference Case

Carbon Dioxide Emissions In the IEO2007 reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by an average of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 11). For the OECD countries, total emissions are projected to average 0.8-percent annual growth, from 13.5 billion metric tons in 2004 to 14.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and 16.7 billion metric tons in 2030. The highest rate of increase among the OECD countries is projected for Mexico, at 2.3 percent per year (Figure 79). Mexico is less developed than most of the OECD countries, and it is projected to have the highest GDP growth rate in the OECD region. Much of that GDP growth is expected to

74 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Table 11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2030 (Billion Metric Tons)

Region History Projections Average Annual Percent Change 1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990-2004 2004-2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 1.2% 0.8%

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.4 1.3% 1.2% Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 0.5% 0.3% Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5% 0.6% Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 13.5 16.8 19.2 21.6 23.9 26.2 2.3% 2.6%

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . 4.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 -2.8% 1.2% Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 7.4 9.7 11.4 13.1 14.8 16.5 5.2% 3.1% Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 4.4% 2.3% Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5% 2.3% Central and South America. . 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.1% 2.3%
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 26.9 30.9 33.9 36.9 39.8 42.9 1.7% 1.8%

Sources: 1990 and 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

18 For a modeling analysis of the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, see Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2006 , DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), “Kyoto Protocol Case,” pp. 75-79, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo.

### come from energy-intensive industries. For all the other OECD countries, annual increases in carbon dioxide emissions are projected to average less than 1.5 percent, reflecting the overall maturity of their energy infrastruc

tures. In Japan, emissions are projected to increase by 0.1 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, and the average for OECD Europe is 0.3 percent per year.
For the non-OECD countries, total carbon dioxide emis

sions are projected to average 2.6-percent annual growth (Figure 80). The highest growth rate in the non-OECD regions is projected for China, at 3.4 percent annually from 2004 to 2030, reflecting the country’s continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, over the projection period. China’s energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to exceed U.S. emissions by about 5 percent in 2010 and by 41 percent in 2030. The lowest growth rate in the non-OECD region is projected for Russia, at 1.0 percent per year. Over the projection period, Russia is expected to expand its reliance on indigenous natural gas resources and nuclear power to fuel electricity generation, and a decline in its popula

tion growth rate is expected to slow the overall rate of increase in energy demand. By fuel, world carbon dioxide emissions from the con

sumption of oil and other liquids are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent from 2004 to 2030. The average growth rates for the OECD and non-OECD regions are projected to be 0.6 percent and 2.3 percent per year, respectively (Figure 81). The high

est rate of growth in petroleum-related carbon dioxide emissions is projected for China, at 3.5 percent per year, as its demand for liquid fuels increases to meet growing demand in the transportation and industrial sectors. The United States is expected to remain the largest source of petroleum-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the period, with projected emissions of 3.3 billion metric tons in 2030—still 66 percent above the corresponding projection for China. Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion worldwide are projected to increase on average by 1.9 percent per year, to 9.0 billion metric tons in 2030, with

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 75 2.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.3

0.1

0.8 Mexico

South Korea Australia/

United States

Canada OECD Europe
Japan

Total OECD

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Percent p er Year New Zealand

### Figure 79. Average Annual Growth in EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the OECD Economies, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

1.0
1.6
3.4
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6 Russia Other Europe

China

India Other Asia
Middle East
Africa
Brazil Other Central and

Total Non-OECD

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Percent per Year South America and Eurasia

### Figure 80. Average Annual Growth in EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Non-OECD Economies, 2004-2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 2 4 6 8 10 Billion Metric Tons History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD 

### Figure 81. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Combustion by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### the OECD countries averaging 1.2 percent and the nonOECD countries 2.6 percent (Figure 82). Again, China is projected to see the most rapid growth in emissions, averaging 6.5 percent annually; however, China’s emis

sions from natural gas combustion amounted to only 0.1 billion metric tons in 2004, and in 2030 they are projected to total only 0.4 billion metric tons, or less than 5 percent of the world total. In contrast, the growth in U.S. emis

sions is projected to average 0.6 percent per year, but the projected level of 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030 is more than triple the projection for China.

Total carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of coal throughout the world are projected to increase by 2.2 percent per year, from 10.6 billion metric tons in 2004 to 18.5 billion metric tons in 2030. Total coal-related emissions from the non-OECD countries have been greater than those from the OECD countries since 1987, and in 2030 they are projected to be more than double the OECD total (Figure 83), in large part because of the increase in coal use projected for China and India. Together, China and India account for 72 percent of theprojected world increment in coal-related carbon dioxide emissions. For China alone, coal-related emissionsare projected to grow by an average of 3.3 percent annually, from 3.8 billion metric tons in 2004 to 8.8 billion metric tons (48 percent of the world total) in 2030. India’scarbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion are projected to total 1.4 billion metric tons in 2030, accounting for 8 percent of the world total. Carbon Dioxide Intensity Measures Emissions per Dollar of GDP 

### In all countries and regions, carbon dioxide intensity— expressed in emissions per unit of economic output— are projected to improve (decline) over the projection period as the world economy moves into a post-indus

trial phase. In 2004, estimated carbon dioxide intensity was 470 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in the OECD region and 516 metric tons per million dollars in the non-OECD region (Table 12). 19 

### Because of the high rate of economic growth projected for the non-OECD countries, their carbon dioxide inten

sity in 2030 is projected to be about 263 metric tons per million dollars. In the OECD countries, carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to be 306 metric tons per million dollars. China, with a relatively high projected rate of growth in emissions (3.4 percent per year), has an even higher projected growth rate for GDP (6.5 percent). In 2030, OECD Europe is projected to have the lowest carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD regions, at 235 metric tons per million dollars, followed by Mexico at 273 metric tons per million dollars and Japan at 292 metric tons per million dollars. Without carbon dioxideconstraints, Canada is projected to have the highest carbon dioxide intensity in the OECD region in 2030, at 410 metric tons per million dollars, followed by Australia/ New Zealand at 400 metric tons per million dollars. U.S.

76 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 2 4 6 Billion Metric Tons History Projections

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 82. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Combustion by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 5 10 15 Billion Metric Tons History Projections

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 83. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Combustion by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

19 GDP is measured in chain-weighted 2000 dollars converted to the currency of the relevant country or region, based on purchasing power parity.

### carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is projected to be 353 metric tons per million dollars of GDP.
Emissions per Capita 

### Another measure of carbon dioxide intensity is emis

sions per person. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the OECD region are significantly higher than in the non-OECD region (Figure 84). If non-OECD countries consumed as much energy per capita as the OECD coun

tries, the projection for world carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 would be much larger, because the non-OECD countries would consume about 3.5 times more energy than the current reference case estimate of 404 quadril

lion Btu. And, given the expectation that non-OECD countries will rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet their energy needs, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions would be even greater. Among the countries of the non-OECD region, Russia has the highest projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the IEO2007 reference case, from

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 77 

### Table 12. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1980-2030 (Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)

Region History Projections Average Annual Percent Change

1980 1990 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990- 2004 2004- 2030 OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731 565 470 419 385 353 328 306 -1.3% -1.6%

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 917 701 553 486 448 407 378 353 -1.7% -1.7% Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 867 693 581 545 490 465 437 410 -1.3% -1.3% Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 441 379 380 353 329 300 273 -1.1% -1.3% Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 672 507 394 349 316 284 258 235 -1.8% -2.0% Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483 355 375 336 319 307 299 292 0.4% -1.0% South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 883 719 694 543 488 451 418 392 -0.3% -2.2% Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 693 678 621 590 529 480 443 400 -0.6% -1.7%
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687 701 516 434 383 338 298 263 -2.2% -2.6%

Europe/Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,018 1,164 846 643 562 504 446 392 -2.3% -2.9%

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882 1,042 883 689 606 548 494 441 -1.2% -2.6% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,242 1,366 796 587 511 454 396 344 -3.8% -3.2% Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738 605 468 393 346 305 269 238 -1.8% -2.6%

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,766 1,120 610 500 425 367 321 284 -4.2% -2.9% India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 340 298 227 202 178 158 138 -0.9% -2.9% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400 352 363 319 302 276 248 220 0.2% -1.9% Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454 860 887 821 743 677 609 545 0.2% -1.9% Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398 448 425 388 344 301 261 223 -0.4% -2.4% Central and South America . . . . 314 307 311 288 273 252 230 209 0.1% -1.5%

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 215 231 227 216 201 186 174 0.5% -1.1% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393 388 374 332 313 285 259 230 -0.3% -1.8%

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 713 621 492 427 384 344 309 278 -1.6% -2.1%

Note: GDP is expressed in terms of purchasing power parity. Sources: 1980-2004: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 2010-2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030 0 5 10 15 Metric Tons per Person History Projections

OECD

Non-OECD 

### Figure 84. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Capita by Region, 1990-2030

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analy

sis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### 12 metric tons per person in 2004 to 17 metric tons per person in 2030. Russia continues to be a fairly inefficient energy consumer. With Soviet-era capital equipment that has not yet been replaced and a wealth of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources, there has been little incentive for Russia to introduce energy conservation or efficiency measures. The lowest levels of per capita emissions in the non-OECD region, and in the world, are in India and Africa, where they are projected to remain at about 1 metric ton per person through 2030.
The OECD countries have higher levels of carbon diox

ide emissions per capita, in proportion to their higher per capita incomes. In the United States, emissions per capita are projected to rise from 20 metric tons in 2004 to 22 metric tons in 2030. In both Canada and Australia/ New Zealand, emissions per capita are projected to rise from 18 metric tons in 2004 to 19 metric tons in 2030. In Mexico, with the lowest level of per capita emissions among the OECD countries, an increase from 4 metric tons in 2004 to 5 metric tons in 2030 is projected.
As shown in Figures 85 and 86, there is a strong correlation between income and emissions per capita. In the figures, countries and regions that are plotted on the trend line produce roughly the average amount of carbon dioxide emissions per capita relative to income per capita. Countries and regions that appear above the trend line are more carbon-intensive than average, and those below the trend line are less carbon-intensive than average. Of the OECD countries and regions shown in Figure 85, two (Canada and the United States) are situated slightly above the trend line for 2004. Two (South Korea and Australia/New Zealand) are above the trend line, and three (Mexico, OECD Europe, and Japan) are below the trend line. Factors that can influence the position of a country or region relative to the trend line include level of industrialization, climate, population density, energy efficiency, and fuel mix. For example, South Korea, which is above the trend line, is still in the process of industrialization. Australia has a low population den

sity and relies heavily on coal for its electricity genera

tion, having no nuclear power capacity. Both Europe and Japan have relatively dense populations, and both have nuclear power generation capacity. Also, the econ

omies of both Europe and Japan have entered the post-industrial phase. The United States benefits from post-industrialization and nuclear power but has rela

tively low population density in comparison with Europe and Japan.
Of the non-OECD countries shown in Figure 85, Brazil is the farthest below the trend line. Factors contributing to Brazil’s position include a relatively warm climate, a high rate of ethanol use for transportation, and ample hydropower capacity for electricity generation. Africa, India, other non-OECD Asia, and Central and South America (excluding Brazil) are slightly below the trend line. China is slightly above the trend line. Russia is well above the trend line. The other countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia are above the trend line, as is the Middle East.
In the 2030 projections, most countries and regions have roughly the same positions relative to the trend line (Figure 86) that they did in 2004; however, there are

78 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

##  

    

   
   

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Gross Domestic Product (Thousand Dollars) per Capita 0 5 10 15 20 25 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Metric Tons) per Capita United States Canada Australia/New Zealand

Japan OECD Europe South Korea Russia

Mexico Other Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

Other Central/South America Middle East

Other Non-OECD Asia China

Brazil India Africa OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 85. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2004

Source: Derived from Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. 

##  

  

     

  

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Gross Domestic Product ( Thousand Dollars ) p er Ca p ita 0 5 10 15 20 25 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Metric Tons) per Capita United States Australia/New Zealand

Japan OECD Europe South Korea Russia

Mexico Other Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

Other Central/South America Middle East Other Non-OECD Asia China

Brazil India Africa OECD Non-OECD

Canada 

### Figure 86. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Gross Domestic Product per Capita by Region, 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### some exceptions. China moves from slightly above the trend for 2004 to slightly below the trend for 2030, mainly as a result of its projected rapid economic growth and movement toward a post-industrial economy. China’s GDP is projected to increase by 6.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emis

sions increase by 3.4 percent per year. In addition, China’s projected population growth rate is lower than the rates projected for most of the other non-OECD nations (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia). Among the other non-OECD countries, India is pro

jected to be the farthest below the trend line for 2030— surpassing Brazil—indicating that its projected eco

nomic growth is less carbon-intensive than in other countries, as it moves more toward service industries rather than energy-intensive manufacturing. Per capita GDP in India is projected to grow by 4.5 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, while its carbon dioxide emissions per capita are projected to increase by only 1.5 percent per year. 

# Alternative Macroeconomic Growth CasesEconomic growth is the most significant factor underlying the projections for growth in carbon dioxide emissions in the mid-term, as the world continues to rely onfossil fuels for most of its energy use. Accordingly, projections of world carbon dioxide emissions are lower in the IEO2007 low economic growth case and higher in the high economic growth case. In the high growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase at an average rate of 2.2 percent annually from 2004 to 2030, as compared with 1.8 per

cent in the reference case. For the OECD countries, the projected average increase is 1.2 percent per year; for the non-OECD countries, the projected average increase is 3.0 percent per year. In the low growth case, world car

bon dioxide emissions are projected to increase by 1.4 percent per year, with averages of 0.4 percent per year in the OECD countries and 2.1 percent per year in the non-OECD countries (compared with 0.8 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, in the reference case). Total emissions worldwide are projected to be 38.4 billion metric tons in 2030 in the low growth case and 47.6 bil

lion metric tons in the high growth case—24 percent higher than projected in the low growth case (Figure 87). The projections for emissions by fuel show similar varia

tions across the cases.


# Alternative World Oil Price Cases
The projections for carbon dioxide emissions in the IEO2007 low and high world oil price cases (Figure 88) show smaller variations from the reference case than do those in the macroeconomic growth cases. In 2030, as compared with the reference case projection (42.9 billionmetric tons), total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be higher in the low price case (43.9 billion metric tons) and lower in the high price case (41.8 billion metric tons). Thus, there is a 5-percent difference between the projections in the two alternative world oil price cases, as compared with a 24-percent difference between the alternative macroeconomic growth cases. In the world oil price cases, natural gas prices are affected more strongly than coal prices. Because natural

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 79 2004 Low Growth 2030 Reference High Growth 0 10 20 30 40 50 Billion Metric Tons

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 87. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three Economic Growth Cases, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, Interna

tional Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). 2004 Low Oil Price 2030 Reference High Oil Price 0 10 20 30 40 50 Billion Metric Tons

OECD Non-OECD 

### Figure 88. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region in Three World Oil Price Cases, 2004 and 2030

Sources: 2004: Energy Information Administration, Interna

tional Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. 2030: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### gas prices are projected to rise with oil prices in the high price case, both oil and natural gas lose market share to coal. In the IEO2007 reference case, coal’s share of total energy use is projected to increase to 28 percent; in the high price case, its share increases to 31 percent. As a result, in the high price case, carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion in 2030 are projected to total 8.7 billion metric tons worldwide, down from 9.0 billion metric tons in the reference case. In the low oil price case, coal’s share of total energy use drops to 26 percent in 2030.

80 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

# Appendix A 

# Reference Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• World Population

### Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 83 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix A

84 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 50.6 53.5 56.2 59.1 62.7 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 31.5 33.5 35.3 36.1 36.8 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.4 27.9 29.7 33.2 36.8 1.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.7 10.8 11.0 0.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.3 137.4 145.1 153.0 161.6 1.1 OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 27.6 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4 OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 0.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.9 42.1 43.9 45.4 47.2 0.9 Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 99.9 103.5 106.8 110.3 114.4 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 59.6 64.0 67.5 70.0 72.3 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 12.4 12.9 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.6 29.9 32.3 34.5 36.6 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.7 1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.4 64.4 68.7 71.5 1.4 Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 38.7 44.0 49.1 54.9 61.5 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.3 16.9 20.5 24.7 29.3 4.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.4 82.9 95.8 107.2 119.2 3.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 131.0 154.7 178.8 202.5 227.6 3.2 See notes at end of table.

### Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2006 85 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.0 12.8 14.6 15.8 17.1 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3 Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.4 10.1 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3 Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.4 15.2 16.8 18.4 19.9 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.1 7.8 8.5 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 11.0 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.7 31.5 34.8 38.0 41.4 2.4 Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 84.1 94.1 103.8 113.8 124.4 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.0 70.4 79.5 88.5 98.1 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

Total World Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 183.9 197.6 210.6 224.1 238.9 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 120.6 134.3 147.0 158.5 170.4 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Appendix A

86 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,246 17,549 20,370 23,468 26,884 2.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,790 14,698 17,077 19,666 22,494 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,189 1,343 1,491 1,652 1,829 2.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,266 1,508 1,802 2,150 2,560 3.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,890 14,428 16,108 17,902 19,913 2.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,551 6,144 6,645 7,130 7,669 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,789 4,042 4,211 4,339 4,473 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 963 1,175 1,361 1,551 1,764 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 799 926 1,074 1,240 1,433 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,687 38,120 43,123 48,500 54,465 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,769 5,877 7,041 8,356 9,881 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,624 3,148 3,680 4,281 4,954 3.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,144 2,728 3,361 4,075 4,928 4.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,693 32,948 43,049 54,908 69,460 5.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,994 17,912 23,981 31,023 39,594 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,649 7,460 9,646 12,287 15,607 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,050 7,576 9,422 11,598 14,259 4.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,951 2,407 2,920 3,517 4,230 4.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,942 3,749 4,727 5,923 7,408 4.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,281 5,168 6,207 7,427 8,869 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,778 2,106 2,485 2,922 3,429 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,502 3,061 3,722 4,505 5,440 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,636 50,148 63,943 80,130 99,848 5.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,323 88,268 107,066 128,631 154,313 4.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table A19.

### Table A4. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Market Exchange Rates, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 87 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,070 11,667 12,120 14,505 16,682 19,357 22,286 25,504 2.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,790 14,698 17,077 19,666 22,494 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543 773 799 945 1,067 1,185 1,312 1,453 2.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414 593 618 770 917 1,096 1,307 1,557 3.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,896 9,189 9,402 10,755 11,918 13,165 14,474 15,914 2.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,740 5,829 5,982 6,896 7,539 8,050 8,522 9,040 1.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,141 4,759 4,867 5,483 5,850 6,094 6,280 6,473 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284 586 614 826 1,008 1,167 1,330 1,513 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 315 484 501 587 680 789 912 1,054 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,706 26,685 27,505 32,156 36,138 40,573 45,282 50,458 2.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 695 606 654 931 1,145 1,372 1,629 1,926 4.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 307 329 452 542 634 738 853 3.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309 299 325 479 602 738 891 1,073 4.7 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,474 3,472 3,768 5,762 7,620 9,868 12,483 15,672 5.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443 1,550 1,707 2,872 3,959 5,301 6,858 8,752 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 554 601 911 1,204 1,556 1,982 2,518 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 757 1,367 1,459 1,978 2,457 3,011 3,643 4,402 4.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 671 713 965 1,190 1,439 1,724 2,061 4.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484 671 704 960 1,223 1,542 1,930 2,412 4.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 1,063 1,496 1,593 2,083 2,515 3,021 3,616 4,321 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463 625 656 807 955 1,127 1,325 1,555 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 600 872 937 1,276 1,560 1,894 2,291 2,766 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,114 6,915 7,432 10,701 13,693 17,242 21,382 26,393 5.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,820 33,601 34,937 42,857 49,831 57,815 66,664 76,850 3.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table A19.

### Table A5. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix A

88 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 32.0 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.6 23.8 25.0 26.6 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 1.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 0.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3 0.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 -0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 49.8 51.6 53.3 55.0 57.1 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.8 21.3 23.8 26.6 29.8 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.6 15.7 3.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 1.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.1 9.8 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.5 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.7 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.1 Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.0 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 40.9 45.8 50.5 55.4 60.5 2.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 90.7 97.3 103.7 110.4 117.6 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A6. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 89 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 30.5 32.4 34.2 34.9 35.5 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.0 25.3 26.3 26.3 26.1 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 1.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.4 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.3 23.0 24.2 25.7 26.9 1.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.5 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 57.6 61.8 65.2 67.7 69.9 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 26.9 29.1 31.4 33.5 35.5 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.6 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 12.8 13.9 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.5 15.8 19.2 23.1 27.4 4.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.7 7.0 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.9 5.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.9 10.0 12.0 14.1 16.5 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.5 12.2 13.9 15.1 16.4 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 3.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.9 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.3 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.5 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.3 67.2 75.8 84.3 93.3 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 115.9 129.0 141.1 152.0 163.2 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A7. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix A

90 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.4 27.9 29.7 33.2 36.8 1.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.2 25.6 27.3 30.6 34.1 1.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 -0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.7 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 0.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 1.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.4 82.9 95.8 107.2 119.2 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.3 65.3 75.5 85.0 95.2 3.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.7 12.2 13.7 15.2 2.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.8 6.9 8.0 8.5 8.8 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A8. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 91 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 936 1,012 1,015 1,033 0.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 812 885 886 896 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,335 2,406 2,438 2,526 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,972 3,255 3,472 3,619 1.3

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A9. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix A

92 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 1.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.6 1.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 1.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.3 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.6 2.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 11.0 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 3.1 Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 93 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,343 7,780 8,230 8,791 9,400 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,214 6,589 6,944 7,425 7,950 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 648 659 694 722 750 1.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 481 532 592 644 699 2.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,493 4,558 4,579 4,621 4,684 0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,269 2,353 2,423 2,495 2,569 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,274 1,290 1,294 1,297 1,306 0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 523 574 614 649 691 1.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 472 490 516 549 573 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,105 14,692 15,232 15,907 16,654 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,067 3,301 3,545 3,729 3,878 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,809 1,908 2,018 2,114 2,185 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,258 1,393 1,527 1,615 1,693 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,711 11,404 13,115 14,759 16,536 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,497 7,607 8,795 9,947 11,239 3.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,283 1,507 1,720 1,940 2,156 2.6 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,930 2,289 2,600 2,871 3,141 2.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,602 1,788 1,976 2,143 2,306 2.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,140 1,291 1,423 1,543 1,655 2.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,235 1,413 1,562 1,708 1,851 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 403 454 500 544 597 2.3 Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 831 959 1,062 1,165 1,254 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,755 19,197 21,622 23,882 26,226 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,860 33,889 36,854 39,789 42,880 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix A

94 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,202 3,395 3,577 3,762 3,998 0.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,629 2,799 2,947 3,112 3,318 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 293 294 297 299 302 0.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 281 301 333 351 378 1.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,099 2,113 2,125 2,138 2,151 0.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,042 1,075 1,097 1,120 1,144 0.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 642 644 645 648 652 -0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 256 280 292 304 319 1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 143 151 160 167 172 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,343 6,583 6,799 7,021 7,293 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 712 751 796 833 868 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 391 409 424 440 450 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 320 342 373 394 418 1.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,496 2,838 3,165 3,537 3,960 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,200 1,338 1,516 1,730 1,995 3.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 334 403 449 501 545 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 962 1,098 1,200 1,306 1,420 1.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 978 1,065 1,157 1,257 1,348 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 474 547 613 651 696 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 838 952 1,052 1,156 1,247 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 293 327 358 390 420 1.9 Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 545 625 694 766 827 2.3

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,498 6,153 6,783 7,434 8,118 2.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,842 12,735 13,582 14,455 15,411 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 95 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,655 1,761 1,859 1,901 1,935 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,298 1,369 1,420 1,422 1,412 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 216 227 248 265 281 1.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 140 165 190 213 242 3.4 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,153 1,245 1,311 1,391 1,456 1.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 332 363 385 399 420 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 198 214 223 230 236 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 64 71 77 82 88 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 79 85 88 96 1.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,139 3,369 3,554 3,690 3,810 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,459 1,581 1,705 1,819 1,930 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 945 1,014 1,069 1,123 1,172 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 514 567 635 697 758 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 702 891 1,085 1,302 1,546 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 175 227 282 348 428 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 103 123 152 189 226 5.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 424 541 650 764 893 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 581 675 769 835 905 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 187 227 265 304 349 3.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 291 341 375 411 447 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 46 53 60 67 77 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 246 287 316 344 370 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,220 3,714 4,199 4,672 5,178 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,359 7,083 7,754 8,362 8,988 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix A

96 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,474 2,611 2,781 3,114 3,453 1.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,275 2,407 2,563 2,877 3,206 1.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 140 138 148 159 168 1.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 60 66 69 79 79 3.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,241 1,200 1,143 1,092 1,078 -0.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 896 916 941 976 1,006 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 434 432 425 419 417 -0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 203 224 245 263 284 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 259 260 272 294 305 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,611 4,727 4,865 5,183 5,536 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 897 970 1,044 1,076 1,079 1.0

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 472 486 525 551 562 0.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 425 484 520 524 517 1.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,513 7,675 8,865 9,919 11,030 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,122 6,043 6,996 7,868 8,816 3.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 846 981 1,119 1,250 1,386 2.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 544 651 750 801 828 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 43 48 50 52 54 1.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 478 517 545 588 610 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 105 120 134 141 157 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 64 74 82 87 101 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 41 46 53 54 56 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,037 9,330 10,639 11,776 12,930 2.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,647 14,057 15,505 16,958 18,466 2.2

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Millions) 

### Reference Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 97 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 366 427 432 457 478 498 518 537 0.8

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 291 294 310 324 337 351 365 0.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 32 32 34 35 36 38 39 0.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 104 106 113 119 125 129 133 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497 530 532 543 550 555 559 562 0.2 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 199 199 202 204 204 203 202 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 128 128 128 128 127 125 123 -0.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 0.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 20 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050 1,156 1,163 1,203 1,232 1,257 1,280 1,300 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 348 343 342 338 334 330 325 319 -0.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 145 144 140 137 133 129 125 -0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 198 198 198 198 197 196 193 -0.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,748 3,316 3,356 3,592 3,783 3,958 4,108 4,231 0.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,155 1,299 1,307 1,355 1,393 1,424 1,441 1,446 0.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 849 1,070 1,087 1,183 1,260 1,332 1,395 1,449 1.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 743 946 962 1,054 1,129 1,202 1,271 1,335 1.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 187 191 216 238 260 281 301 1.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 636 869 887 1,007 1,115 1,228 1,344 1,463 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 360 442 448 486 515 542 567 589 1.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 181 184 198 209 219 228 236 1.0 Other Central and South America. . 210 260 264 287 306 323 339 354 1.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,228 5,156 5,224 5,638 5,986 6,319 6,626 6,903 1.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,278 6,312 6,388 6,841 7,217 7,577 7,906 8,203 1.0

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: United States: Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. Other Countries: United Nations, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects (February 25, 2005), web site http://esa.un.org/unpp.

# Appendix B 

# High Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

### Table B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 101 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 132.4 142.0 152.4 164.5 177.7 1.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 108.2 116.2 124.1 133.9 144.4 1.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.6 19.9 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.5 9.5 10.8 12.0 13.4 2.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 85.1 88.1 89.9 93.0 96.7 0.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.5 43.4 46.1 48.6 51.7 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.6 27.6 0.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.8 11.2 12.5 13.5 14.9 2.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.5 9.1 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 257.9 273.5 288.4 306.2 326.0 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.6 61.6 68.3 74.6 79.6 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 33.4 36.7 39.9 43.5 46.3 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 22.2 25.0 28.4 31.0 33.3 2.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 133.1 160.3 189.3 219.1 252.0 3.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 83.9 100.7 119.5 138.8 160.9 3.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.4 22.4 26.5 30.9 35.3 3.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.8 37.2 43.3 49.4 55.7 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.7 30.5 34.6 38.4 42.3 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.4 25.0 27.6 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.1 32.6 36.8 41.2 45.8 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.4 13.2 14.9 16.8 19.0 2.9 Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.7 19.5 21.9 24.4 26.8 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 260.7 304.9 351.4 398.2 447.2 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 518.6 578.4 639.8 704.4 773.3 2.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix B

102 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 51.8 55.6 59.7 64.3 69.5 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 32.1 34.8 36.8 37.9 40.2 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.6 28.6 31.5 36.2 40.4 2.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.1 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 132.4 142.0 152.4 164.5 177.7 1.5 OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 32.4 33.2 34.0 34.8 35.7 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 22.1 24.3 26.0 28.2 30.3 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.7 -0.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 85.1 88.1 89.9 93.0 96.7 0.7 OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.9 2.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 1.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.5 43.4 46.1 48.6 51.7 1.2 Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 101.7 107.2 113.0 119.3 126.3 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 60.5 66.2 70.6 74.4 79.4 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.9 52.2 55.3 60.4 65.4 1.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.1 27.1 28.5 0.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.5 1.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 257.9 273.5 288.4 306.2 326.0 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 28.1 31.1 34.4 37.7 41.2 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.1 12.8 13.1 1.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.6 61.6 68.3 74.6 79.6 1.8 Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 39.4 45.8 52.4 60.0 68.9 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.5 17.5 21.8 26.8 32.6 5.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 71.5 85.9 101.4 116.1 132.1 3.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.1 9.4 10.7 12.1 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 133.1 160.3 189.3 219.1 252.0 3.6 See notes at end of table.

### Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 103 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.8 16.5 18.3 20.4 22.4 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.2 13.2 15.4 17.0 18.9 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.7 30.5 34.6 38.4 42.3 2.7 Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.4 10.2 11.2 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.4 3.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 2.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.4 25.0 27.6 2.7 Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.6 15.8 17.8 20.1 22.2 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.6 6.7 7.6 8.5 9.6 3.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 10.5 11.7 2.9

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.1 32.6 36.8 41.2 45.8 2.8 Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 85.6 97.9 110.6 124.3 139.2 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 62.0 73.0 84.4 96.4 109.7 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.3 104.6 121.9 138.1 155.2 3.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.5 22.1 24.8 27.7 30.7 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 260.7 304.9 351.4 398.2 447.2 3.0

Total World Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 187.3 205.2 223.5 243.5 265.5 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 122.5 139.1 155.0 170.8 189.0 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.2 156.8 177.2 198.5 220.6 2.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.8 35.7 38.8 40.9 1.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 52.8 57.2 2.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 518.6 578.4 639.8 704.4 773.3 2.1 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Appendix B

104 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,722 18,597 22,014 26,133 30,687 3.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 13,219 15,619 18,490 21,965 25,757 3.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,213 1,403 1,596 1,812 2,057 2.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,291 1,575 1,928 2,356 2,874 4.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 13,143 15,074 17,246 19,641 22,386 2.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,660 6,419 7,115 7,825 8,625 2.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,864 4,225 4,511 4,766 5,036 1.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 982 1,227 1,455 1,699 1,980 4.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 815 967 1,149 1,360 1,609 3.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 34,526 40,091 46,375 53,599 61,698 3.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,860 6,133 7,527 9,152 11,086 4.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,675 3,287 3,935 4,691 5,561 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,185 2,847 3,592 4,461 5,525 5.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 25,157 34,366 45,975 60,049 77,793 6.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 13,235 18,676 25,600 33,910 44,319 7.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,756 7,782 10,304 13,441 17,484 6.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,166 7,907 10,072 12,698 15,989 5.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,989 2,513 3,122 3,852 4,745 4.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,998 3,912 5,052 6,483 8,304 5.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,363 5,396 6,638 8,136 9,953 4.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,813 2,199 2,658 3,202 3,850 3.8 Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,551 3,196 3,980 4,934 6,103 4.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 39,367 52,320 68,314 87,671 111,881 5.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 73,893 92,410 114,689 141,270 173,579 4.5

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.

### Table B4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 105 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 26.4 28.4 30.5 32.9 35.5 1.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.9 23.5 25.3 27.4 29.7 1.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 0.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 0.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 50.7 53.5 56.4 59.6 63.1 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.1 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 19.1 22.2 25.4 29.1 33.4 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.6 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.5 4.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.9 2.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.8 7.9 8.8 9.9 11.0 2.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.9 10.9 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.4 2.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.7 9.8 10.8 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 2.6 Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.7 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 41.6 47.6 53.8 60.4 67.7 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 92.3 101.1 110.1 120.0 130.8 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet) 

### Appendix B

106 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 31.0 33.6 35.6 36.7 38.8 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.5 26.4 27.3 27.4 28.4 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 2.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.5 23.6 25.3 27.5 29.5 1.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.4 2.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 1.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 58.5 64.0 68.2 71.9 76.6 1.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.3 30.3 33.4 36.7 40.0 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.7 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.4 1.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.6 10.8 12.4 14.0 15.6 2.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.6 16.4 20.4 25.0 30.5 5.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 3.8 4.8 6.1 7.6 6.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 8.0 10.4 12.8 15.4 18.5 4.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.6 12.6 14.7 16.3 18.0 2.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.9 3.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.1 8.0 8.9 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 4.0 Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 2.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 59.2 69.7 80.5 91.8 104.4 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 117.7 133.6 148.8 163.7 181.0 2.3

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 107 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.6 28.6 31.5 36.2 40.4 2.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.4 26.3 29.0 33.3 37.3 1.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 4.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.7 -0.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 0.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 49.9 52.2 55.3 60.4 65.4 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.1 12.8 13.1 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.9 1.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.2 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 71.5 85.9 101.4 116.1 132.1 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 56.2 67.7 80.1 92.1 105.6 3.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.4 11.1 12.9 14.8 16.8 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.2 9.7 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.3 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 2.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 4.0 Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.3 104.6 121.9 138.1 155.2 3.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.2 156.8 177.2 198.5 220.6 2.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix B

108 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 961 1,017 1,087 1,147 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 837 890 958 1,010 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,360 2,411 2,510 2,640 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,997 3,260 3,544 3,733 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 109 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 1.7

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.3 1.7 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 1.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.2 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 25.0 26.5 1.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.1 9.4 10.7 12.1 2.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.2 7.0 2.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.4 9.4 10.5 11.7 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.3 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.5 22.1 24.8 27.7 30.7 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 52.8 57.2 2.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix B

110 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,450 8,034 8,683 9,477 10,322 1.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,304 6,801 7,322 7,997 8,711 1.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 657 680 732 781 833 1.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 489 553 628 700 778 2.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,553 4,703 4,814 4,958 5,138 0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,302 2,435 2,564 2,704 2,858 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,292 1,332 1,363 1,398 1,440 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 533 599 660 719 793 1.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 478 504 540 587 625 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,305 15,172 16,060 17,139 18,318 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,121 3,437 3,784 4,087 4,365 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,841 1,988 2,154 2,319 2,462 1.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,280 1,449 1,629 1,768 1,903 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,878 11,843 13,925 16,037 18,401 3.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,615 7,908 9,344 10,810 12,500 3.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,302 1,560 1,821 2,105 2,403 3.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,961 2,375 2,760 3,122 3,499 3.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,627 1,852 2,093 2,322 2,559 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,158 1,337 1,505 1,670 1,834 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,256 1,470 1,665 1,868 2,081 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 411 474 536 601 682 2.8 Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 845 996 1,128 1,267 1,398 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 17,040 19,940 22,971 25,984 29,240 3.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 31,346 35,112 39,031 43,123 47,558 2.2

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 111 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,264 3,513 3,778 4,073 4,409 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,682 2,896 3,112 3,371 3,659 1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 297 304 312 321 331 0.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 285 313 353 380 419 2.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,127 2,179 2,231 2,287 2,346 0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,058 1,113 1,160 1,211 1,265 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 651 665 680 697 716 0.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 261 292 312 335 361 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 146 156 168 179 188 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,449 6,804 7,168 7,571 8,020 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 725 785 853 916 980 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 399 428 455 485 509 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 326 357 398 432 470 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,540 2,955 3,375 3,864 4,433 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,223 1,395 1,619 1,892 2,236 4.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 339 419 479 547 611 2.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 978 1,142 1,277 1,424 1,587 2.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 994 1,106 1,229 1,367 1,502 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 482 567 649 706 772 2.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 853 990 1,120 1,261 1,395 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 299 340 382 426 471 2.3 Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 554 650 738 835 924 2.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,595 6,403 7,226 8,113 9,081 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 12,044 13,207 14,395 15,684 17,101 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix B

112 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,685 1,829 1,937 1,995 2,113 1.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,324 1,425 1,475 1,480 1,537 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 218 233 260 282 305 2.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 143 171 202 233 271 3.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,166 1,281 1,374 1,490 1,597 1.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 336 375 407 433 470 2.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 201 221 237 250 266 1.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 65 73 82 90 100 2.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 70 81 88 93 104 2.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,187 3,485 3,718 3,918 4,180 1.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,483 1,643 1,817 1,993 2,174 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 961 1,055 1,140 1,230 1,320 1.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 522 588 676 763 854 2.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 712 922 1,149 1,413 1,722 5.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 177 233 296 373 469 6.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 105 128 162 207 254 5.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 431 561 691 833 999 4.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 589 697 811 899 998 2.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 190 236 281 331 391 3.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 296 354 400 451 506 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 47 56 66 78 94 4.0 Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 249 298 334 373 412 2.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,271 3,853 4,458 5,088 5,791 3.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,458 7,338 8,176 9,006 9,971 2.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### High Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 113 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,489 2,679 2,955 3,396 3,786 2.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,286 2,466 2,721 3,132 3,501 2.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 142 144 160 177 197 2.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 61 69 74 86 88 4.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,260 1,243 1,209 1,181 1,195 -0.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 908 947 997 1,059 1,123 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 439 446 447 450 459 0.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 207 235 266 295 332 2.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 262 267 284 315 332 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,657 4,869 5,160 5,637 6,104 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 912 1,009 1,114 1,178 1,212 1.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 480 505 559 604 633 1.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 432 504 554 574 579 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,626 7,966 9,401 10,760 12,246 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,215 6,280 7,428 8,544 9,795 3.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 858 1,013 1,180 1,351 1,538 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 552 673 792 865 913 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 44 49 53 56 59 2.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 485 534 574 633 672 2.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 107 126 144 156 180 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 65 78 89 97 117 4.0 Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 42 48 56 59 62 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,174 9,684 11,286 12,783 14,368 3.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,831 14,553 16,446 18,419 20,472 2.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix C 

# Low Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

### Table C1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 117 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 128.4 132.9 137.8 142.0 146.3 0.7

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 104.8 108.5 112.2 115.3 118.5 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.4 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 0.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.9 9.7 10.2 10.9 1.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.2 83.5 82.5 82.4 82.4 0.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.9 41.9 42.5 43.2 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.5 0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.5 10.4 11.1 11.5 12.1 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 251.0 257.3 262.1 266.8 271.9 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 53.6 56.5 59.3 61.2 61.6 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.3 34.0 35.4 36.9 37.4 0.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.9 24.3 24.2 0.8 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.0 149.3 169.0 187.2 205.7 2.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 81.2 93.6 106.6 118.7 131.6 3.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 17.9 21.0 23.8 26.5 28.9 2.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 29.8 34.7 38.6 42.0 45.2 2.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 25.9 28.4 30.9 32.8 34.4 1.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.6 18.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.2 30.4 32.9 35.2 37.3 2.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.0 12.2 13.3 14.3 15.4 2.1 Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.2 18.1 19.6 20.9 21.9 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 252.3 283.1 312.2 337.8 361.7 2.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 503.3 540.4 574.3 604.6 633.6 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix C

118 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 49.5 51.1 52.9 54.4 56.0 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 30.8 32.4 33.7 33.9 33.9 0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.3 27.0 28.0 30.1 32.5 1.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.4 10.5 10.4 0.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 128.4 132.9 137.8 142.0 146.3 0.7 OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 31.5 31.2 30.8 30.4 30.0 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.6 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.1 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.3 11.5 10.7 10.3 -0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 0.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.2 83.5 82.5 82.4 82.4 0.1 OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.1 1.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 0.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.9 41.9 42.5 43.2 0.5 Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 98.1 99.6 101.0 102.1 103.3 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 58.6 62.0 64.3 65.4 66.1 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.9 49.1 49.2 50.6 52.6 0.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.8 0.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.1 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 251.0 257.3 262.1 266.8 271.9 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.0 28.4 29.6 30.4 31.0 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.8 0.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 53.6 56.5 59.3 61.2 61.6 0.8 Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 38.0 42.3 46.1 50.3 55.0 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.1 16.3 19.4 22.7 26.3 4.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 69.3 80.0 90.5 99.0 107.6 2.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 2.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.0 149.3 169.0 187.2 205.7 2.8 See notes at end of table.

### Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 119 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.0 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 10.9 12.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 25.9 28.4 30.9 32.8 34.4 1.9 Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.8 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.1 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 1.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.6 18.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 1.9 Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.1 14.6 15.7 16.9 17.8 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.4 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.5 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.3 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.2 30.4 32.9 35.2 37.3 2.0 Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 82.5 90.2 97.1 103.9 110.7 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 59.9 67.5 74.2 80.2 86.3 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 85.5 97.2 108.3 117.1 125.5 2.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.1 21.0 22.9 24.9 26.8 2.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 252.3 283.1 312.2 337.8 361.7 2.2

Total World Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 180.6 189.8 198.1 206.0 214.0 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 118.5 129.4 138.6 145.6 152.4 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 134.4 146.2 157.5 167.7 178.2 1.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.3 37.8 39.2 1.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.0 42.4 44.8 47.5 49.9 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 503.3 540.4 574.3 604.6 633.6 1.4 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Appendix C

120 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 14,767 16,506 18,762 20,865 23,155 2.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,359 13,777 15,686 17,399 19,249 2.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,166 1,285 1,392 1,505 1,626 1.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,242 1,444 1,684 1,961 2,279 3.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,640 13,806 15,040 16,310 17,702 1.8 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,444 5,879 6,203 6,494 6,815 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,539 3,612 3,679 3,736 3,789 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 945 1,126 1,272 1,415 1,570 3.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 784 886 1,003 1,131 1,275 2.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 32,851 36,190 40,006 43,669 47,672 2.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,640 5,520 6,380 7,302 8,324 3.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,575 3,015 3,439 3,906 4,410 3.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,065 2,505 2,941 3,397 3,913 4.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,236 31,582 40,297 50,186 61,987 5.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,756 17,176 22,458 28,369 35,353 6.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,544 7,150 9,027 11,227 13,925 5.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 5,936 7,257 8,812 10,589 12,709 4.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,915 2,305 2,730 3,210 3,768 3.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,887 3,591 4,421 5,409 6,605 4.4 Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,199 4,948 5,802 6,776 7,899 3.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,744 2,017 2,322 2,665 3,053 2.9 Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,455 2,932 3,479 4,111 4,846 3.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 37,876 47,947 59,629 72,882 88,582 4.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 70,727 84,138 99,635 116,552 136,254 3.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. GDP growth rates for China and India were adjusted, based on the analyst’s judgment.

Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview , Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.

### Table C4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 121 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.3 26.1 27.0 27.7 28.5 0.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.7 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 -0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 -0.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 48.9 49.6 50.3 50.9 51.5 0.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.4 20.5 22.3 24.4 26.7 2.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.2 10.1 11.1 12.4 14.0 3.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 1.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.8 1.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.8 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.4 1.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.7 1.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.6 Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.4 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 40.1 43.9 47.2 50.5 53.8 1.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 89.0 93.5 97.6 101.4 105.3 0.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet) 

### Appendix C

122 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 29.8 31.3 32.6 32.7 32.8 0.7

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.1 24.7 24.2 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 2.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.0 22.3 23.1 24.0 24.5 1.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.7 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 56.7 59.9 62.2 63.2 63.9 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 26.3 27.6 28.8 29.6 30.2 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.2 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.6 10.3 10.7 11.0 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.3 15.3 18.2 21.3 24.6 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.4 6.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.4 4.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.7 9.6 11.3 13.0 14.8 3.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.4 11.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.5 2.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.1 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.4 Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 57.2 64.4 70.8 76.4 82.0 2.1

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 113.9 124.3 133.0 139.6 145.9 1.5

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 123 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.3 27.0 28.0 30.1 32.5 1.1

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.1 24.9 25.8 27.7 30.2 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.4 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.3 11.5 10.7 10.3 -0.9 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 -0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.9 49.1 49.2 50.6 52.6 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.8 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.4 0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.4 0.2 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 69.3 80.0 90.5 99.0 107.6 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 54.4 62.9 71.3 78.4 85.9 2.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.6 12.6 13.7 2.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.7 6.7 7.6 7.9 8.0 2.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.7 Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 85.5 97.2 108.3 117.1 125.5 2.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 134.4 146.2 157.5 167.7 178.2 1.7

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix C

124 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 933 982 990 982 0.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 809 855 861 845 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,332 2,376 2,413 2,475 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,969 3,225 3,447 3,568 1.2

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 125 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.1 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 1.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 0.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.1 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 2.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.1 2.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.3 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.4 10.3 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.4 2.8 Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.1 21.0 22.9 24.9 26.8 2.2

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.0 42.4 44.8 47.5 49.9 1.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix C

126 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,237 7,513 7,798 8,103 8,446 0.8

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,125 6,363 6,583 6,842 7,141 0.7 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 639 638 657 668 676 0.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 473 513 558 593 629 1.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,434 4,419 4,355 4,307 4,269 -0.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,237 2,274 2,290 2,302 2,309 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,257 1,249 1,228 1,204 1,183 -0.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 514 549 570 584 601 0.7 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 466 476 492 514 525 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 13,907 14,206 14,443 14,712 15,023 0.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 2,993 3,119 3,232 3,272 3,275 0.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,777 1,832 1,890 1,926 1,937 0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,216 1,287 1,342 1,346 1,338 0.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,564 11,004 12,381 13,616 14,899 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,400 7,340 8,305 9,185 10,143 3.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,264 1,457 1,625 1,789 1,936 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,899 2,207 2,450 2,642 2,820 2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,578 1,725 1,867 1,979 2,080 1.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,123 1,248 1,346 1,427 1,495 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,213 1,358 1,465 1,562 1,647 1.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 396 435 465 491 523 1.7 Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 818 923 1,000 1,071 1,125 1.9

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,472 18,454 20,291 21,856 23,396 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,379 32,660 34,734 36,568 38,419 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 127 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,143 3,261 3,384 3,487 3,600 0.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,578 2,686 2,787 2,884 2,983 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 289 285 282 279 276 -0.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 276 291 315 325 341 1.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,072 2,049 2,024 1,999 1,972 -0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,026 1,038 1,037 1,036 1,035 0.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 633 623 613 603 594 -0.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 251 268 273 277 283 0.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 142 147 152 156 158 0.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,240 6,348 6,445 6,523 6,607 0.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 692 705 720 726 728 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 384 391 395 399 398 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 308 314 326 327 330 0.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,452 2,726 2,970 3,241 3,539 2.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,179 1,283 1,421 1,583 1,781 3.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 328 388 422 459 486 1.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 945 1,056 1,128 1,198 1,272 1.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 963 1,026 1,089 1,156 1,211 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 467 528 579 602 628 1.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 824 915 988 1,060 1,116 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 288 314 336 356 374 1.4 Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 535 601 652 703 741 1.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,398 5,899 6,347 6,784 7,222 1.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,638 12,248 12,792 13,307 13,829 0.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix C

128 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,620 1,704 1,775 1,781 1,785 0.7

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,269 1,325 1,359 1,337 1,311 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 214 221 237 248 258 1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 138 158 178 196 216 2.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,140 1,211 1,251 1,299 1,326 1.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 327 351 364 367 375 1.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 196 206 211 210 209 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 63 68 72 74 77 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 77 81 82 88 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,088 3,266 3,389 3,447 3,486 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,427 1,500 1,563 1,606 1,638 0.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 929 974 1,003 1,024 1,040 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 498 526 561 581 598 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 691 860 1,024 1,200 1,389 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 172 220 269 325 391 6.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 101 119 143 173 201 4.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 418 521 612 702 798 3.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 573 653 730 774 820 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 184 219 250 280 312 2.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 287 328 352 375 395 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 45 50 54 58 63 2.4 Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 242 277 298 317 332 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,163 3,561 3,920 4,235 4,554 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,250 6,827 7,309 7,682 8,040 1.5

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Low Economic Growth Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 129 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,461 2,535 2,626 2,821 3,048 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,265 2,340 2,423 2,607 2,834 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 137 132 138 141 142 0.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 59 64 65 73 71 3.4 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,222 1,158 1,080 1,008 970 -0.9 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 883 885 889 899 899 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 428 419 404 390 379 -0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 199 213 225 233 241 0.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 256 253 259 276 279 0.8

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,566 4,579 4,595 4,728 4,917 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 874 914 948 940 909 0.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 464 467 492 503 499 0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 410 447 456 437 410 0.2 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,421 7,417 8,386 9,175 9,971 2.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,049 5,837 6,615 7,276 7,971 2.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 835 950 1,060 1,157 1,250 2.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 537 629 710 742 751 2.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 43 46 48 48 49 1.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 472 501 518 546 554 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 103 115 125 127 137 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 63 71 75 77 86 2.7 Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 40 45 50 50 51 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 7,912 8,993 10,025 10,837 11,620 2.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,478 13,572 14,620 15,565 16,536 1.7

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix D 

# High World Oil Price Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

### Table D1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 133 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 129.3 134.8 142.7 149.9 157.6 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 105.5 109.9 115.8 121.6 127.7 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.6 16.0 17.0 17.6 18.3 1.1 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.2 8.9 10.0 10.7 11.6 2.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.6 84.1 85.3 86.2 86.9 0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.5 42.4 43.8 45.3 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.2 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.3 0.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.2 11.9 12.8 1.4 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 252.3 259.4 270.4 279.9 289.8 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.2 60.7 67.0 70.3 72.1 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 33.2 36.3 39.4 41.3 42.2 1.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 22.0 24.4 27.6 29.0 29.9 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.4 149.6 174.2 197.0 219.7 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 81.6 94.0 110.1 125.1 140.8 3.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 17.9 20.8 24.3 27.7 30.8 2.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 29.9 34.8 39.9 44.2 48.2 2.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.6 29.9 32.9 34.9 36.9 2.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.7 18.5 20.6 22.4 23.9 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.3 30.5 33.8 36.7 39.5 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.0 12.2 13.5 14.7 16.2 2.3 Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.3 18.3 20.4 22.0 23.2 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 255.2 289.1 328.5 361.3 392.1 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 507.4 548.5 598.9 641.3 681.9 1.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix D

134 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 49.8 50.4 52.0 54.1 56.6 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 30.7 32.3 33.8 34.2 34.8 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.7 29.1 32.2 35.7 39.4 1.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.9 11.6 11.9 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 129.3 134.8 142.7 149.9 157.6 1.0 OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 30.6 28.5 27.9 28.2 28.3 -0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 21.9 23.4 25.6 26.3 26.7 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.3 0.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 83.6 84.1 85.3 86.2 86.9 0.3 OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 16.6 15.8 15.7 16.2 16.5 -0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.0 7.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 39.4 40.5 42.4 43.8 45.3 0.7 Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 96.9 94.7 95.6 98.6 101.4 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 58.7 62.0 66.4 67.6 68.8 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 50.8 54.8 58.3 61.8 66.0 1.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.2 27.2 28.3 0.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.4 22.6 24.0 24.7 25.4 1.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 252.3 259.4 270.4 279.9 289.8 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.9 11.3 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.8 30.2 33.6 34.6 35.7 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 10.4 12.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 1.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 2.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 55.2 60.7 67.0 70.3 72.1 1.4 Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 37.0 39.0 42.4 47.8 53.4 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.1 16.4 20.9 24.4 28.1 4.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.5 83.0 97.0 108.7 120.4 3.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.7 10.7 11.6 2.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 129.4 149.6 174.2 197.0 219.7 3.1 See notes at end of table.

### Table D2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 135 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.4 15.0 15.4 16.8 18.1 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 11.4 13.8 16.3 16.8 17.6 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.6 29.9 32.9 34.9 36.9 2.2 Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.6 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.6 2.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 16.7 18.5 20.6 22.4 23.9 2.2 Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 12.8 13.4 14.4 16.0 17.2 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.6 6.8 7.7 8.3 8.7 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 2.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 27.3 30.5 33.8 36.7 39.5 2.2 Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 80.9 84.4 90.1 99.6 108.7 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.4 71.2 83.3 89.5 96.2 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.0 103.9 119.9 132.9 145.3 3.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.6 22.4 25.5 27.6 29.5 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 255.2 289.1 328.5 361.3 392.1 2.5

Total World Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 177.8 179.1 185.7 198.2 210.1 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 120.1 133.2 149.6 157.1 165.0 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.8 158.7 178.2 194.7 211.3 2.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.6 35.8 38.9 40.7 1.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 41.0 45.0 49.5 52.3 54.9 2.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 507.4 548.5 598.9 641.3 681.9 1.6 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Appendix D

136 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,160 17,372 20,309 23,458 26,862 2.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,707 14,544 17,024 19,658 22,476 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,190 1,339 1,490 1,651 1,829 2.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,262 1,489 1,795 2,149 2,557 3.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,832 14,251 16,049 17,894 19,894 2.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,528 6,040 6,611 7,126 7,659 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,774 3,977 4,190 4,337 4,467 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 958 1,151 1,352 1,550 1,761 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 796 912 1,069 1,240 1,431 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,520 37,663 42,969 48,478 54,415 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,762 5,866 7,037 8,356 9,880 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,626 3,156 3,682 4,282 4,955 3.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,136 2,709 3,354 4,074 4,925 4.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,585 32,501 42,873 54,878 69,385 5.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 12,928 17,638 23,872 31,004 39,547 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,629 7,339 9,599 12,279 15,587 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,028 7,523 9,402 11,595 14,251 4.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,989 2,483 2,947 3,521 4,240 4.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,927 3,699 4,708 5,920 7,400 4.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,262 5,103 6,183 7,423 8,860 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,774 2,092 2,480 2,921 3,427 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,488 3,011 3,703 4,502 5,433 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,524 49,652 63,749 80,098 99,766 5.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,044 87,315 106,718 128,575 154,181 4.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model (February 2007). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview
, Fourth Quarter 2006 (Lexington, MA, January 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007
, DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.

### Table D4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 137 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.5 27.6 28.7 0.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -0.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 14.8 13.8 13.5 13.6 13.7 -0.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.1 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 -0.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 48.3 47.3 47.7 49.2 50.5 0.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 0.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 18.0 18.9 20.5 23.2 25.9 2.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.8 13.6 2.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.8 1.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.5 1.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.2 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.8 8.4 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 1.5 Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.2 1.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 39.3 41.0 43.8 48.4 52.9 1.8

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 87.7 88.3 91.6 97.6 103.3 0.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet) 

### Appendix D

138 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 29.8 31.2 32.9 33.3 33.8 0.8

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.1 24.1 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.3 22.8 25.0 25.6 26.0 1.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.8 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 56.8 59.9 64.3 65.5 66.6 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.0 29.3 32.6 33.7 34.7 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.6 19.0 20.7 21.0 21.4 1.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.4 10.3 11.9 12.6 13.4 1.8 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.3 15.4 19.5 22.7 26.2 4.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.2 7.3 6.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 4.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 7.7 9.6 11.9 13.7 15.6 3.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.9 13.2 15.5 16.0 16.8 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.7 3.0 Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.2 7.7 8.2 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 3.1 Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 6.5 6.8 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.6 67.9 79.4 85.2 91.5 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 115.4 127.8 143.7 150.8 158.1 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 139 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 26.7 29.1 32.2 35.7 39.4 1.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 24.4 26.6 29.6 32.8 36.4 1.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.3 0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 0.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 50.8 54.8 58.3 61.8 66.0 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 10.4 12.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 5.5 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.7 1.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.8 6.1 6.7 6.8 6.8 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.5 83.0 97.0 108.7 120.4 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.0 64.1 74.9 84.5 94.3 3.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.4 11.0 12.7 14.3 15.8 2.6 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 6.1 7.9 9.3 10.0 10.3 3.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.6 2.4 Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 88.0 103.9 119.9 132.9 145.3 3.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.8 158.7 178.2 194.7 211.3 2.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix D

140 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 938 1,028 1,095 1,127 0.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 814 901 966 990 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,337 2,422 2,518 2,620 0.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,974 3,271 3,552 3,713 1.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 141 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 1.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 1.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.4 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.3

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 21.4 22.6 24.0 24.7 25.4 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 2.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.7 10.7 11.6 2.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.2 6.7 2.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.5 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.4 7.0 3.2 Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.6 22.4 25.5 27.6 29.5 2.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 41.0 45.0 49.5 52.3 54.9 2.0

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix D

142 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,278 7,626 8,091 8,575 9,108 1.1

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,156 6,456 6,830 7,239 7,701 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 646 651 683 710 735 0.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 477 519 577 626 672 2.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,468 4,491 4,550 4,584 4,610 0.2 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,248 2,287 2,366 2,436 2,493 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,260 1,249 1,255 1,258 1,258 0.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 516 548 592 627 664 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 472 490 519 550 571 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 13,994 14,404 15,007 15,594 16,210 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,110 3,426 3,746 3,890 3,994 1.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,840 1,996 2,152 2,221 2,264 1.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,270 1,430 1,594 1,669 1,729 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,613 11,077 12,822 14,443 16,083 3.0

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,432 7,376 8,588 9,727 10,924 3.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,274 1,467 1,683 1,905 2,110 2.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,907 2,234 2,551 2,811 3,049 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,617 1,807 1,973 2,095 2,224 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,131 1,260 1,393 1,512 1,611 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,206 1,326 1,453 1,591 1,712 2.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 389 411 438 483 534 1.8 Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 817 915 1,015 1,108 1,177 2.1

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,676 18,894 21,387 23,531 25,623 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 30,670 33,299 36,395 39,125 41,833 1.7

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 143 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,145 3,188 3,290 3,425 3,577 0.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,597 2,661 2,750 2,862 2,989 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 280 261 255 259 260 -0.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 269 266 285 304 327 1.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,007 1,873 1,831 1,855 1,857 -0.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 997 951 948 976 993 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 615 571 558 566 567 -0.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 245 245 251 265 277 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 137 134 138 145 149 0.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,150 6,011 6,069 6,255 6,426 0.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 684 677 694 732 762 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 378 373 372 388 397 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 306 305 322 344 365 0.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,390 2,514 2,731 3,078 3,436 2.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,151 1,184 1,313 1,508 1,731 2.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 319 356 388 436 472 1.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 920 975 1,030 1,133 1,233 1.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 963 1,008 1,036 1,129 1,217 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 451 478 521 559 596 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 802 844 906 1,006 1,082 1.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 281 290 308 337 362 1.3 Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 522 554 598 669 720 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,291 5,521 5,889 6,504 7,093 1.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 11,440 11,533 11,958 12,759 13,520 0.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix D

144 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,616 1,698 1,770 1,793 1,821 0.8

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,251 1,282 1,289 1,286 1,284 0.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 224 249 282 289 296 1.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 142 167 199 218 241 3.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,154 1,233 1,353 1,390 1,412 1.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 322 335 365 371 382 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 191 191 203 207 210 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 63 67 76 79 82 1.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 69 76 85 86 90 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,092 3,266 3,489 3,555 3,615 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,468 1,592 1,772 1,829 1,886 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 954 1,030 1,121 1,139 1,157 1.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 514 562 651 690 729 1.8 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 691 868 1,101 1,286 1,483 4.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 178 246 325 381 445 6.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 97 104 133 165 194 4.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 415 518 644 740 844 3.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 603 728 858 888 927 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 182 213 255 288 322 3.0 Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 297 357 409 436 461 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 45 51 57 64 74 3.1 Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 251 305 352 372 388 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,241 3,757 4,396 4,727 5,080 2.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,333 7,022 7,885 8,281 8,694 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table D12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### High World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 145 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,503 2,726 3,016 3,344 3,696 1.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,295 2,499 2,778 3,077 3,414 1.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 142 142 146 162 178 1.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 67 86 93 104 103 4.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,307 1,385 1,366 1,338 1,341 0.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 928 1,002 1,054 1,089 1,119 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 454 487 493 485 481 0.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 208 236 265 284 305 1.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 266 280 296 319 332 1.5

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,739 5,113 5,436 5,770 6,155 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 957 1,156 1,280 1,329 1,346 1.9

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 507 593 659 694 711 1.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 450 563 621 635 635 1.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,532 7,695 8,990 10,079 11,163 3.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,103 5,946 6,951 7,837 8,748 3.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 857 1,007 1,162 1,304 1,444 2.6 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 572 742 877 938 972 3.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 51 71 78 78 79 3.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 498 569 616 665 693 2.4 Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 107 125 138 149 168 3.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 63 70 73 82 99 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 44 55 65 67 69 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 8,145 9,617 11,102 12,301 13,450 3.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,884 14,730 16,538 18,071 19,605 2.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run HP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix E 

# Low World Oil Price Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

### Table E1. World Total Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 149 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.8 139.2 146.7 154.1 162.8 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.7 98.3 100.7 106.9 113.6 119.3 125.0 131.7 1.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 13.5 13.6 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.4 1.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.5 6.6 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.5 12.6 2.5 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.8 88.0 88.3 89.8 91.9 0.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.4 43.5 45.5 47.3 49.5 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 22.2 22.6 23.8 25.0 25.6 26.1 26.8 0.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.7 9.0 9.8 11.3 12.3 13.1 14.2 1.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 256.1 270.6 280.6 291.3 304.2 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.9 64.5 67.9 70.6 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 28.8 30.1 32.8 35.5 37.5 39.4 40.8 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.3 19.2 19.6 21.9 24.3 27.0 28.5 29.8 1.6 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 132.5 159.4 184.5 209.1 235.9 3.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 49.7 59.6 83.4 99.8 116.1 132.1 150.3 3.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 14.4 15.4 18.3 22.3 25.9 29.7 33.2 3.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 24.0 24.9 30.7 37.2 42.5 47.3 52.3 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.2 30.0 33.4 36.4 39.3 2.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.0 24.1 26.1 2.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.0 32.6 36.1 39.8 43.5 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.7 9.1 11.3 13.2 14.7 16.3 18.2 2.7 Other Central and South America. . 8.8 13.0 13.5 16.7 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 2.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.0 206.9 258.5 301.7 340.6 377.3 415.5 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 514.6 572.3 621.2 668.5 719.6 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix E

150 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.5 47.2 49.2 51.4 55.9 59.8 63.6 68.4 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 28.5 28.5 31.8 34.6 37.0 38.8 40.0 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.6 30.8 0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.9 0.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 1.2

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 118.3 120.9 130.8 139.2 146.7 154.1 162.8 1.1 OECD Europe

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 31.9 32.4 33.1 34.9 35.8 37.1 38.0 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.6 19.3 22.1 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.6 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 12.5 10.9 10.3 9.6 9.3 -1.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 0.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.9 79.5 81.1 84.8 88.0 88.3 89.8 91.9 0.5 OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 17.7 17.4 17.9 19.4 20.1 21.2 22.0 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.3 5.3 6.5 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.5 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 0.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.9 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 36.9 37.8 40.4 43.5 45.5 47.3 49.5 1.0 Total OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 96.7 98.9 102.3 110.2 115.7 121.9 128.4 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2 52.4 53.1 60.4 67.1 70.4 73.3 76.1 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.0 46.5 47.0 47.8 49.9 0.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.3 25.3 25.6 26.3 0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.5 1.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197.4 234.7 239.8 256.1 270.6 280.6 291.3 304.2 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.7 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 24.2 25.1 27.8 31.1 33.0 34.2 36.1 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 0.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.8

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.2 47.9 49.7 54.7 59.9 64.5 67.9 70.6 1.4 Non-OECD Asia

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.9 28.1 30.6 39.9 47.6 54.1 62.5 71.2 3.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 8.1 8.9 13.7 18.3 21.8 25.4 30.0 4.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.2 82.5 95.2 105.9 117.6 3.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.8 2.5

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5 88.2 99.9 132.5 159.4 184.5 209.1 235.9 3.4 See notes at end of table.

### Table E2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 151 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD (Continued)

Middle East

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 11.0 11.6 14.7 16.3 18.3 20.6 22.5 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.4 9.0 10.9 13.0 14.5 15.0 16.1 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 19.9 21.1 26.2 30.0 33.4 36.4 39.3 2.4 Africa

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.6 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 11.8 2.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 7.0 3.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 13.3 13.7 17.1 19.8 22.0 24.1 26.1 2.5 Central and South America

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 11.1 11.5 13.8 16.4 18.5 20.9 23.0 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.1 2.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.4 2.4

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.7 22.5 28.0 32.6 36.1 39.8 43.5 2.6 Total Non-OECD

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 65.2 69.3 86.4 100.9 113.6 128.8 143.2 2.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.0 47.4 50.3 61.6 73.6 81.7 88.2 97.4 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.0 98.3 112.1 123.2 135.0 2.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.6 25.3 27.5 2.3

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150.0 191.1 206.9 258.5 301.7 340.6 377.3 415.5 2.7

Total World Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.2 161.9 168.2 188.7 211.0 229.4 250.7 271.6 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.2 99.8 103.4 122.0 140.7 152.1 161.5 173.5 2.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 133.9 144.8 159.1 171.0 184.9 1.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.5 34.9 37.3 38.7 1.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.2 43.2 45.7 48.0 51.0 1.7

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347.3 425.7 446.7 514.6 572.3 621.2 668.5 719.6 1.9 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun

try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region Expressed in Purchasing Power Parity, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Billion 2000 Dollars) 

### Appendix E

152 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 8,477 12,250 12,725 15,308 17,648 20,429 23,506 26,927 2.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 10,301 10,704 12,850 14,786 17,129 19,700 22,532 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 973 1,005 1,189 1,344 1,492 1,652 1,830 2.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 975 1,016 1,269 1,518 1,808 2,154 2,565 3.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,067 10,850 11,132 12,929 14,510 16,155 17,932 19,945 2.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,621 4,630 4,761 5,567 6,188 6,670 7,145 7,685 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,862 3,289 3,363 3,798 4,069 4,225 4,348 4,481 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 683 715 967 1,187 1,367 1,555 1,768 3.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 429 658 682 802 932 1,077 1,243 1,435 2.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,165 27,730 28,619 33,804 38,346 43,253 48,583 54,557 2.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 3,601 3,081 3,332 4,774 5,884 7,046 8,360 9,885 4.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,780 1,907 2,623 3,145 3,677 4,280 4,952 3.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,301 1,425 2,150 2,740 3,368 4,080 4,933 4.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,995 14,573 15,841 24,770 33,173 43,200 55,017 69,597 5.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,002 7,013 7,722 13,041 18,051 24,076 31,092 39,681 6.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 3,434 3,727 5,663 7,516 9,682 12,313 15,640 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,291 4,125 4,393 6,066 7,606 9,441 11,612 14,275 4.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 820 1,364 1,453 1,927 2,372 2,898 3,502 4,212 4.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 2,056 2,161 2,953 3,776 4,744 5,935 7,423 4.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 2,191 3,110 3,297 4,294 5,200 6,227 7,440 8,885 3.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,378 1,446 1,782 2,113 2,489 2,925 3,432 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 1,169 1,733 1,852 2,513 3,087 3,737 4,515 5,453 4.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,057 24,184 26,085 38,717 50,405 64,114 80,254 100,002 5.3
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,222 51,914 54,704 72,521 88,751 107,367 128,837 154,559 4.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues). Projections: Global Insight, Inc., Global Scenario Model (February 2007); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington DC, February 2007), Table B4.

### Table E4. World Liquids Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 153 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 24.2 25.0 26.2 28.5 30.5 32.4 34.8 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 20.0 20.7 21.6 23.4 25.0 26.6 28.6 1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 0.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.4 0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 8.5 8.8 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 48.3 49.1 51.0 54.8 57.6 60.7 64.0 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.2 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 13.6 14.8 19.3 23.1 26.2 30.3 34.5 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 5.6 6.4 9.7 11.4 13.1 15.5 18.1 4.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.1 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.7 6.0 6.9 8.2 9.1 10.3 11.4 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.4 5.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 10.1 11.0 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.7 2.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.8 5.2 5.4 6.7 8.0 9.0 10.2 11.2 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.7 Other Central and South America. . 2.3 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.0 3.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 31.5 33.4 42.0 49.0 55.3 62.6 69.6 2.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 79.8 82.5 93.0 103.9 112.9 123.4 133.6 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Trillion Cubic Feet) 

### Appendix E

154 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 27.4 27.6 30.8 33.5 35.8 37.5 38.7 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.4 24.4 26.4 28.0 29.3 29.7 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 1.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 18.2 18.8 21.5 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.9 1.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 5.0 5.0 6.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.0 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 1.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 50.5 51.4 58.4 64.8 68.1 70.8 73.5 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 26.7 23.6 24.4 27.0 30.3 32.1 33.3 35.1 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 19.3 20.0 20.4 21.2 1.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 8.3 8.4 9.5 10.9 12.0 12.9 14.0 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.7 8.5 12.8 17.2 20.4 23.8 28.1 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.7 6.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 5.6 6.0 8.1 10.8 12.8 14.6 16.9 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 8.0 8.6 10.4 12.4 13.8 14.3 15.4 2.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.5 3.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 2.0 3.7 4.1 5.1 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 3.6 Other Central and South America. . 1.9 3.2 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 45.5 48.2 58.8 70.3 77.9 84.0 92.6 2.5

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 96.0 99.6 117.3 135.1 146.0 154.9 166.2 2.0

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 155 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 24.1 24.1 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.6 30.8 0.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.3 22.6 23.9 24.5 25.2 26.3 28.4 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 13.2 13.1 12.5 10.9 10.3 9.6 9.3 -1.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 -0.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.5 45.9 46.6 48.0 46.5 47.0 47.8 49.9 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 15.1 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 0.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.6 0.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 45.8 53.6 70.2 82.5 95.2 105.9 117.6 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 33.7 41.1 55.6 66.1 76.4 85.5 95.7 3.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.3 11.7 13.0 14.3 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.6 4.3 5.5 6.2 7.1 7.4 7.5 2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 59.7 67.9 86.0 98.3 112.1 123.2 135.0 2.7

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89.4 105.6 114.5 133.9 144.8 159.1 171.0 184.9 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix E

156 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 649 845 883 910 933 942 944 936 0.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 764 789 789 809 815 815 799 0.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 71 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 931 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 351 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 228 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 123 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0 0000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 2,128 2,220 2,257 2,332 2,336 2,367 2,429 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 219 260 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 141 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 119 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 97 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 42 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 16 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 32 39 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 13 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 9 20 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 13 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 390 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,909 2,518 2,619 2,722 2,969 3,185 3,401 3,522 1.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 157 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.8 9.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.0 6.0 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 1.2 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 0.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 17.5 17.9 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.5 1.1

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 5.2 5.7 7.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 10.8 2.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.3 2.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 3.9 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.4 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.5 2.9 Other Central and South America. . 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 14.5 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.6 25.3 27.5 2.3

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.2 43.2 45.7 48.0 51.0 1.7

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E9. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix E

158 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 5,763 6,775 6,893 7,375 7,886 8,361 8,836 9,434 1.2

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,800 5,923 6,241 6,673 7,040 7,424 7,929 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474 589 584 650 666 707 740 770 1.1 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 385 385 485 548 614 672 736 2.5 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,092 4,321 4,381 4,518 4,635 4,671 4,733 4,823 0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,543 2,129 2,183 2,286 2,402 2,487 2,578 2,668 0.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,015 1,244 1,262 1,286 1,324 1,338 1,354 1,372 0.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 475 497 529 593 635 675 723 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 291 410 424 471 485 514 549 574 1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,399 13,225 13,457 14,179 14,923 15,520 16,148 16,926 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 4,193 2,717 2,819 3,046 3,275 3,503 3,643 3,784 1.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,334 1,602 1,685 1,794 1,891 1,988 2,053 2,116 0.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 1,115 1,134 1,252 1,384 1,514 1,589 1,668 1.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,627 6,479 7,411 9,807 11,688 13,466 15,182 17,062 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 3,898 4,707 6,567 7,810 9,041 10,237 11,597 3.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 578 1,040 1,111 1,290 1,531 1,751 1,981 2,206 2.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,542 1,593 1,950 2,347 2,674 2,964 3,259 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705 1,211 1,289 1,599 1,817 2,028 2,212 2,396 2.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 895 919 1,148 1,318 1,460 1,591 1,714 2.4 Central and South America . . . . . . 673 981 1,027 1,257 1,482 1,656 1,844 2,023 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 317 334 413 482 541 606 674 2.7 Other Central and South America. . 453 664 693 843 999 1,115 1,238 1,349 2.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,847 12,283 13,465 16,857 19,579 22,112 24,472 26,980 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,246 25,508 26,922 31,036 34,503 37,632 40,619 43,906 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Liquids Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 159 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,633 3,029 3,140 3,263 3,576 3,844 4,096 4,422 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,500 2,598 2,672 2,932 3,148 3,353 3,633 1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 279 290 302 319 329 342 351 0.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 250 253 289 325 367 401 439 2.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,867 2,099 2,125 2,171 2,294 2,351 2,439 2,497 0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 921 1,068 1,048 1,076 1,165 1,210 1,273 1,322 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 683 665 663 696 710 735 752 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 248 245 265 305 323 347 371 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 110 137 138 148 164 176 190 200 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,420 6,196 6,314 6,510 7,035 7,404 7,808 8,241 1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,350 636 663 732 799 866 937 993 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 782 364 376 401 433 459 492 513 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 271 287 330 367 408 445 480 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 1,822 1,983 2,574 3,072 3,490 4,026 4,580 3.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 711 816 1,237 1,454 1,675 1,972 2,309 4.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 293 306 345 438 496 571 631 2.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 464 818 861 992 1,181 1,318 1,483 1,640 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 735 778 987 1,096 1,227 1,384 1,509 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298 387 395 492 596 682 749 814 2.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 503 696 720 864 1,029 1,160 1,315 1,445 2.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 248 258 303 355 397 445 488 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 323 449 462 561 674 763 870 957 2.8

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,594 4,276 4,538 5,649 6,593 7,425 8,411 9,341 2.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,014 10,472 10,852 12,158 13,627 14,829 16,219 17,583 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Appendix E

160 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,477 1,483 1,672 1,820 1,945 2,041 2,105 1.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,197 1,198 1,318 1,428 1,512 1,583 1,609 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 183 183 213 223 242 249 261 1.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 98 102 141 169 190 208 235 3.2 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 984 1,021 1,168 1,313 1,349 1,395 1,457 1.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 279 282 344 402 418 426 450 1.8

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 168 163 207 237 243 247 254 1.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 50 58 66 78 83 87 94 1.9 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 44 61 61 71 87 91 92 102 2.0

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,949 2,740 2,786 3,183 3,534 3,711 3,862 4,012 1.4

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,450 1,280 1,328 1,468 1,644 1,742 1,808 1,908 1.4

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 828 868 949 1,048 1,086 1,106 1,146 1.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 452 460 519 596 656 702 762 2.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 428 471 723 966 1,150 1,341 1,586 4.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 70 83 176 228 277 329 408 6.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 56 64 110 152 183 225 266 5.7 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 106 301 325 437 586 690 788 911 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 442 476 574 686 764 791 849 2.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 144 148 194 251 287 323 369 3.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 116 209 231 290 341 369 395 428 2.4

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 27 34 47 56 63 73 84 3.6 Other Central and South America. . 110 181 197 244 285 306 322 344 2.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,005 2,502 2,655 3,249 3,888 4,311 4,657 5,140 2.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,954 5,242 5,441 6,433 7,422 8,023 8,520 9,151 2.0

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table E12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low World Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 

### Low World Oil Price Case Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 161 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,258 2,258 2,428 2,478 2,560 2,685 2,893 1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,093 2,115 2,239 2,301 2,368 2,474 2,673 0.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 128 112 135 123 136 148 158 1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 30 55 54 56 63 62 2.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,635 1,237 1,235 1,179 1,028 972 899 870 -1.3 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 782 853 867 836 859 879 897 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 393 434 417 392 384 372 366 -0.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 177 194 199 210 229 241 258 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 137 212 225 251 234 246 267 272 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,028 4,277 4,345 4,474 4,342 4,391 4,464 4,659 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,393 801 828 847 832 894 898 884 0.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624 410 441 444 411 444 456 457 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 770 392 387 403 421 450 442 426 0.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,517 4,229 4,957 6,510 7,649 8,825 9,815 10,897 3.1

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 3,117 3,809 5,154 6,129 7,089 7,936 8,880 3.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 690 741 835 941 1,072 1,186 1,308 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 237 422 407 521 580 665 693 708 2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 34 35 38 36 38 37 38 0.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 364 376 461 470 492 519 531 1.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 54 76 77 102 112 127 135 150 2.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 42 43 64 72 81 88 102 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 20 34 34 39 40 46 47 48 1.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,248 5,505 6,272 7,959 9,099 10,376 11,403 12,499 2.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,277 9,782 10,617 12,433 13,441 14,767 15,867 17,158 1.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run LP2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix F 

# Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

### Table F1. Total World Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 165 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.0 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 20.2 21.7 22.8 23.7 24.9 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 0.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 17.8 20.4 22.6 24.6 26.6 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.7 53.9 59.0 62.7 65.8 69.0 1.4 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.3 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 14.6 17.0 19.2 21.5 24.0 2.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 28.3 31.7 34.6 37.5 40.7 2.0 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.5 61.0 64.5 67.9 70.9 74.2 1.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.2 51.5 56.6 63.1 68.3 73.3 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.4 39.5 45.3 50.4 55.9 62.0 2.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.3 28.6 32.2 36.1 39.9 44.3 2.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163.6 183.1 201.4 220.5 238.1 257.1 1.8 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.9 95.4 104.1 112.9 122.7 133.8 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.7 97.5 106.3 115.4 125.3 136.5 1.7 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157.6 173.4 186.5 199.3 212.5 227.2 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.3 79.9 87.2 95.4 102.0 108.8 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 44.2 50.4 55.6 60.9 66.8 2.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.1 61.9 70.6 79.0 87.2 96.1 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 1.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323.5 362.9 398.4 433.2 466.7 503.3 1.7 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 123.2 148.2 161.0 173.8 187.0 198.3 1.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.6 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.2 40.7 47.1 51.6 56.5 61.6 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.7 92.2 101.2 111.6 122.0 132.4 2.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.3 36.9 39.8 42.7 46.0 49.2 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175.2 210.1 231.6 252.9 274.2 294.5 2.0 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168.2 183.9 197.6 210.6 224.1 238.9 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.4 120.6 134.3 147.0 158.5 170.4 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114.5 136.4 151.6 167.2 182.9 199.1 2.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5 29.8 32.5 35.7 38.1 39.7 1.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.2 40.4 43.4 46.5 50.1 53.5 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446.7 511.1 559.4 607.0 653.7 701.6 1.8

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F2. Total OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

166 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 -0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 0.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.9 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8 0.6 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.1 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.5 13.5 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.6 1.2 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.2 30.0 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.6 22.1 22.8 24.5 25.7 26.6 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.9 10.2 0.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.0 0.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.4 74.4 76.5 79.1 81.9 84.9 0.6 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.9 59.4 62.4 65.5 68.4 71.9 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57.9 60.5 63.7 66.9 69.9 73.4 0.9 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.6 96.2 99.9 103.3 106.8 111.1 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.3 41.4 42.9 45.2 46.7 48.1 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.3 10.6 0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.0 33.3 35.3 37.4 39.3 41.9 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176.8 184.1 191.5 199.4 207.0 215.7 0.8 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 62.9 70.3 73.7 75.7 78.9 82.3 1.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 -0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.8 18.2 21.1 22.3 23.3 24.2 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.6 39.5 40.6 42.2 45.2 48.7 1.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.9 20.7 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.9 103.6 109.0 113.1 118.2 124.2 1.1 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 99.9 103.5 106.8 110.3 114.4 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53.1 59.6 64.0 67.5 70.0 72.3 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.6 49.4 50.7 52.1 55.5 59.3 0.9 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 27.3 0.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.9 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239.8 254.4 265.2 275.1 285.9 298.0 0.8

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F3. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 167 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 -0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 0.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.5 1.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.5 13.8 0.7 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 2.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.4 1.5 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.6 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.8 10.1 0.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 0.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 26.3 27.0 27.8 29.2 30.5 0.6 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 29.1 31.3 33.4 35.7 38.3 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.9 29.9 32.1 34.3 36.6 39.3 1.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.7 40.9 43.3 45.5 48.0 51.1 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.8 0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.0 1.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.1 13.5 14.5 15.4 16.5 17.6 1.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.9 77.5 81.7 86.0 90.8 96.0 1.0 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 26.8 29.0 30.6 32.2 33.6 35.1 1.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.6 7.3 7.4 6.8 6.1 0.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 22.1 23.5 25.1 27.9 31.1 1.7 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.9 42.5 45.1 47.6 50.0 52.8 1.2 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 41.8 44.3 46.5 49.0 52.1 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1 24.7 26.1 27.0 27.1 26.9 0.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 24.2 25.6 27.3 30.6 34.1 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.2 9.2 9.3 0.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.7 106.5 112.3 118.2 124.4 131.2 1.0

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Includes net electricity imports. Sources: 2004: Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2004 , DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC, August 2006). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.

### Table F4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

168 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.9 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.2 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.6 1.3 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 1.0 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.9 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.1 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.5 1.4 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 1.2

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 169 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 4.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 3.1 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 4.6 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.7 2.2 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.1 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 3.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 2.4 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 4.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 2.6 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.8 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.1 12.1 2.3

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F6. Delivered Energy Consumption in OECD Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

170 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 0.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 0.2 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 0.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 0.5 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.7 8.8 0.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 0.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 24.9 25.3 26.0 26.2 26.6 0.3 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 0.2 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.2 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.9 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.8 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.3 16.5 0.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.2 -0.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.8 0.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.3 60.8 61.7 62.9 63.6 64.6 0.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 20.8 23.3 24.1 23.2 23.9 24.6 0.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 6.8 8.3 8.8 10.0 11.1 3.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.4 8.3 -0.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.1 34.2 35.4 34.9 36.0 37.3 0.7 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.3 21.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 27.6 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.5 -0.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 -0.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1 84.1 85.8 86.1 87.5 89.2 0.4

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F7. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 171 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.4 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 0.5 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 0.1 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 0.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 1.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.9 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.0 0.2 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.5 1.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 -0.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.8 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.0 11.4 1.0 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 -0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 -0.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.6 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.4 0.5

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F8. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

172 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.8 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 2.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 1.2 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.5 1.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 2.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.8 2.4 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.8 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 9.6 10.8 11.8 12.5 13.4 1.6

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F9. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 173 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.2 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 1.1 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.4 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 1.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.2

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F10. Total Non-OECD Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

174 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.4 11.5 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.3 13.7 3.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 24.4 28.5 31.5 33.8 36.2 2.4 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 4.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.7 10.8 12.5 14.3 16.1 3.7 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.1 33.0 36.1 39.1 41.6 44.2 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 29.3 33.8 38.6 42.6 46.7 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.9 30.1 35.7 41.0 46.0 51.8 2.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.2 19.2 22.5 25.8 29.3 3.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91.2 108.7 124.9 141.3 156.2 172.2 2.5 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.0 36.1 41.7 47.4 54.2 61.9 3.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.8 37.0 42.7 48.5 55.4 63.1 2.9 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.9 77.2 86.7 96.0 105.7 116.1 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.0 38.5 44.4 50.2 55.3 60.7 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.7 34.3 40.4 45.7 50.6 56.2 2.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.1 28.6 35.3 41.7 47.8 54.2 3.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 4.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146.7 178.7 206.9 233.8 259.6 287.5 2.6 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 60.2 77.9 87.3 98.1 108.1 116.0 2.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.3 1.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 22.5 26.0 29.3 33.2 37.4 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.1 52.7 60.5 69.4 76.8 83.7 3.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 19.1 21.4 23.6 26.1 28.5 2.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.3 106.5 122.6 139.8 156.0 170.2 2.8 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 84.1 94.1 103.8 113.8 124.4 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.3 61.0 70.4 79.5 88.5 98.1 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.9 86.9 100.9 115.1 127.4 139.8 2.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.3 7.2 9.6 11.7 12.4 4.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 19.3 21.6 23.9 26.3 28.8 2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206.9 256.6 294.2 331.9 367.8 403.5 2.6

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F11. Delivered Energy Consumption in Russia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 175 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 1.5 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.2 0.7 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.4 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.7 2.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.0 27.1 0.9 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 8.9 10.5 11.8 12.7 14.1 14.5 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.6 7.4 7.8 8.4 8.8 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.7 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 13.6 15.3 16.7 18.5 19.2 1.9 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.4 17.9 19.2 20.3 21.3 22.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 0.9 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.1 32.9 35.3 37.6 40.1 41.6 1.3

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

176 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 2.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 1.5 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.2 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.0 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 8.9 9.7 10.6 11.1 11.5 1.5 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.7 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.0 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 2.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9 14.8 16.2 17.8 18.8 19.7 1.7 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 7.1 7.8 9.0 9.8 10.2 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.4 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 9.5 10.7 12.3 13.4 14.1 1.9 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 9.7 10.7 12.0 13.2 14.4 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 1.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 21.9 24.1 26.8 28.6 29.9 1.6

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F13. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 177 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 6.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 0.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.3 7.5 8.5 9.4 10.4 3.4 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 7.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.0 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.5 2.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.5 6.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 18.6 23.1 27.3 31.4 36.5 3.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.6 11.2 12.8 3.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 37.7 44.8 51.8 58.9 67.3 3.4 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.8 7.3 9.4 12.0 15.2 5.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.1 7.7 9.7 12.3 15.5 4.9 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 18.8 20.9 23.7 27.2 31.6 3.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.2 6.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 21.6 26.3 30.5 34.4 39.3 3.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 9.2 11.8 14.5 17.3 20.1 4.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.7 52.6 63.1 73.8 84.9 98.1 3.6 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 20.9 29.9 34.0 39.1 43.4 47.3 3.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 -1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 6.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 33.8 39.0 45.1 50.5 55.9 3.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 7.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.4 39.1 45.8 53.6 60.7 67.4 3.5 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 19.3 21.5 24.4 27.8 32.1 3.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.6 8.1 6.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.1 55.3 65.3 75.5 85.0 95.2 3.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.5 7.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.6 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.6 82.6 97.1 112.8 128.3 145.4 3.5

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F14. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

178 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.0 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 — Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 5.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 5.4 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 4.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.8 2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 7.0 8.2 9.6 11.1 12.6 2.7 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.3 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 4.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.7 2.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.4 3.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 11.8 14.3 16.4 18.8 20.9 2.9 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 6.3 7.4 8.7 9.9 11.0 2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 5.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.4 7.3 8.4 9.4 10.5 2.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 9.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 9.0 10.8 12.7 14.6 16.4 3.1 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.5 6.6 7.4 8.2 8.9 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 9.3 10.7 12.2 13.7 15.2 2.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 9.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 18.2 21.7 25.1 28.6 31.9 2.8

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Non-OECD Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 179 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 2.9 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 4.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.8 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.4 4.6 5.8 6.9 8.1 4.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 2.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 12.3 14.9 17.2 19.4 21.7 2.8 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.4 10.6 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.5 10.6 2.1 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 12.7 14.4 15.8 17.2 18.8 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.0 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.1 4.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.8 3.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 22.6 27.1 30.8 34.6 38.5 2.7 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 3.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.8 3.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 3.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 10.9 13.0 15.1 16.9 18.4 3.2 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 13.9 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.6 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.0 10.2 12.3 14.5 16.9 4.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.8 6.9 8.0 8.5 8.8 2.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 30.3 35.9 40.9 45.6 50.2 2.7

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F16. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

180 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 1.8 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 3.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 3.4 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.3 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.0 8.6 9.2 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 10.9 12.7 14.6 15.7 16.7 2.3 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 2.7 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 12.0 13.1 14.3 15.6 16.7 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.9 8.3 9.6 10.3 11.1 2.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.7 2.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 21.4 24.2 27.0 29.4 31.7 2.4 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.5 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.0 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.4 10.2 2.1 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 11.0 12.8 14.6 15.8 17.1 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 32.6 35.5 38.2 2.3

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F17. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 181 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 3.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 3.8 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.1 9.9 2.3 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 2.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.7 2.5 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.2 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 12.1 14.3 16.2 17.8 19.3 2.5 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 2.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.8 9.5 2.3 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.4 10.1 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 1.9 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.9 19.2 21.2 23.1 24.9 2.3

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F18. Delivered Energy Consumption in Brazil by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Appendix F

182 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.8 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 4.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 4.6 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.6 2.1 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 2.1 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.4 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.8 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.1 9.2 10.3 11.3 12.5 2.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 6.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.8 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.8 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.8 3.2 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 2.5

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table F19. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2004-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 

### Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 183 Sector/Fuel 2004 Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 Commercial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 3.0 Industrial

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.6 1.8 Transportation

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.6 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.9 7.7 3.2 All End-Use Sectors

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.5 11.5 2.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.1 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8

Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 12.8 14.8 16.5 18.2 19.6 2.4 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3 Electric Power a

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.3 1.9 Total Energy Consumption

Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 11.4 12.3 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.0 2.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.0 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 16.5 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.2 2.3

a Fuel inputs used in the production of electricity and heat at central-station generators. Sources: 2004: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia. doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix G 

# Projections of Petroleum and Other Liquids Production in Three Cases:

• Reference

• High World Oil Price

• Low World Oil Price

### Table G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 187 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 37.8 42.1 46.6 51.3 56.8 2.0

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 -2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 23.3 26.0 29.9 33.8 38.6 2.0

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 0.8 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 3.8 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.9 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 4.0 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 8.9 9.4 10.4 12.9 16.4 1.7 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.2 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 1.3

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.7 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.7 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.2 3.9

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.3 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.1 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 0.4
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 52.9 55.3 57.2 59.1 60.9 0.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.6 0.0

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 0.7

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.5 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 1.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 -0.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.9 -2.9 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 30.5 32.7 34.7 36.7 38.3 1.5

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.5 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 0.8 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 4.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.0 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.9 1.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 -0.3 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.3 2.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 90.7 97.4 103.8 110.4 117.7 1.4
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 42% 43% 45% 46% 48% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 26% 27% 29% 31% 33%

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix G

188 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 36.8 40.7 44.8 49.0 54.1 1.9

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 -2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 23.1 25.6 29.2 33.0 37.5 1.9

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 0.8 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.3 3.8 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.9 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 8.9 9.4 10.4 12.9 16.4 1.8 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.2 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 1.3

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.7 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.7 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.2 3.9

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.3 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.1 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 -1.1
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 49.4 50.9 51.7 52.4 53.1 0.5

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 19.9 19.6 18.9 18.0 17.6 -0.7

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.1 14.1 0.0

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.1 0.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 -1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 -0.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.7 -3.2

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -3.4 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 -3.1 United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 -5.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.2 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.2

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

### Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 189 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 29.5 31.3 32.8 34.4 35.6 1.2

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.5 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 0.8 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 4.3

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 4.8 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.4 Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 5.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.1 -0.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 -0.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -2.1 Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.5 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.2

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.9 Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.7 Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 2.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 1.4

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.3 Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.4 Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -1.9 Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.6 Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.5 Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 — Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.1 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.8 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.5 Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 -1.2 Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7 Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.8 Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 86.2 91.6 96.5 101.4 107.2 1.1
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 44% 46% 48% 50% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 28% 30% 33% 35%

Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix G

190 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 5.0

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 4.0 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 10.6
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.7 7.8 5.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.4 5.0 4.9

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 5.2 Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.7 Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 29.9 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 8.2

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 7.1 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 12.3 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 6.2 Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.7 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 4.2 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 13.7 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 5.4 Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.5 5.8 7.3 9.0 10.5 5.6 Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.4 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 — India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 5.6 Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 — China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 — Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 22.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.2 United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 — Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 191 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 35.3 35.6 36.7 40.0 43.2 0.9

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 -3.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 21.4 22.0 23.5 26.2 28.8 0.9

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 -0.3 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.7 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.8 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.6 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 7.6 8.3 8.4 10.1 11.6 0.4 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.2

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 -0.4 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.9 2.8

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 2.0 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 0.4
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 52.4 52.8 54.9 57.7 60.2 0.8

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.1 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.4 0.3

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.3 16.8 18.3 19.7 20.9 1.1

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.2 9.6 10.5 11.2 11.9 1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.7 2.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 -0.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 4.9 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.7 -3.2 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 30.3 31.0 32.2 34.2 35.8 1.2

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.4 0.4 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.9 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.5 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 7.1 7.5 7.9 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 1.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 -0.5 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 1.3 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.0 2.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 3.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 0.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 87.7 88.4 91.6 97.6 103.4 0.9
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 40% 40% 40% 41% 42% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28%

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix G

192 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 34.3 34.0 34.5 37.2 39.9 0.7

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 -3.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 21.2 21.6 22.7 25.2 27.5 0.7

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 -0.3 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.7 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.8 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 7.6 8.3 8.4 10.1 11.6 0.4 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.2

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.6 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 -0.4 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.9 2.8

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.1 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 2.0 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 -2.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 48.8 47.5 47.4 48.2 49.2 0.2

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 19.6 18.4 17.8 17.3 17.1 -0.8

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.9 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 0.0

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.5 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 -1.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 -0.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 4.9 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.4 -3.6

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -3.7 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 -3.5 United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 -5.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.6

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

### Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 193 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 29.3 29.1 29.7 30.9 32.1 0.8

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 1.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.4 0.4 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 3.9

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 4.3 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.0 Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 4.9 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.6 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 -0.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 -0.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 -2.5 Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.9 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.2

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 -1.3 Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -1.1 Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.0

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.9 Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.9 Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -2.3 Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.0 Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -1.9 Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 — Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 1.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 -1.6 Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3 Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 83.1 81.4 81.9 85.4 89.1 0.4
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 44% 46% 48% 50% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 28% 30% 33% 35%

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels per Day) 

### Appendix G

194 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 5.8

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 4.9 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 11.3
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.6 5.3 7.4 9.5 11.0 7.2

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.9 6.2 7.3 6.4

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 5.7 Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.5 Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 35.3 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.8 Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.7 9.5

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 9.3 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 13.0 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 7.7 Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.5 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0 5.0 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.9 3.9 15.9 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 6.3 Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.6 6.9 9.7 12.2 14.3 6.8 Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 6.5 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 — India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 — United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 5.8 Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 — China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 — Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 23.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 4.9 United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 — Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.3 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 —

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 195 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.0 35.3 39.4 41.9 46.3 53.9 61.5 2.3

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 24.5 26.2 30.1 35.7 41.5 2.3

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 1.4 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.4 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.5 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.6 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.5 10.7 9.7 9.8 10.8 13.5 16.4 1.7 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 2.8 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 1.9

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.3 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.3 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.5 7.6 8.1 9.3 10.7 4.5

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.9 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.7 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8 -0.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.4 48.9 49.1 53.6 62.1 66.6 69.5 72.2 1.5

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.0 22.7 21.7 22.6 23.9 23.7 23.2 23.0 0.0

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.7 15.6 15.1 16.7 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.3 0.6

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.6 8.2 9.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.7 0.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.8 0.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.4 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.7 -2.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 26.2 27.3 31.0 38.2 42.9 46.3 49.2 2.4

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 14.0 17.8 20.1 21.9 23.5 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.2 12.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 2.0 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.1 6.9 7.7 5.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.8 6.9 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 1.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.2 1.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 0.7 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.7 2.5 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.3 5.2 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.4 3.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.5 4.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 2.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 82.9 84.3 93.0 103.9 112.9 123.4 133.7 1.9
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 42% 40% 41% 44% 46% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 24% 28% 28% 26% 25% 27% 29% 31%

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix G

196 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 33.3 34.7 38.4 40.9 45.2 52.6 60.1 2.3

Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 22.9 23.5 24.4 25.9 29.6 35.3 40.9 2.3

Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 1.4 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.4 Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.5 Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.6 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 10.4 10.7 9.7 9.8 10.8 13.5 16.4 1.8 United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 2.8 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 1.9

Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 2.3 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.3 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.4 4.0 6.5 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.7 4.5

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.9 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.7 South America (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 -0.5
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.8 47.1 47.3 50.3 59.0 63.4 65.8 68.2 1.4

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.2 20.4 20.3 21.8 21.6 20.9 20.4 -0.1

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 14.2 13.8 14.5 15.7 16.0 15.9 15.9 0.5

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 8.3 8.0 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.3 0.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 -0.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 0.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.0 3.5 -2.2

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2.3 Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 -2.0 United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 -4.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12).

### Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Continued) (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Liquids Production Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 197 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.9 26.8 30.0 37.2 41.8 45.0 47.8 2.4

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . . . 11.6 11.5 11.9 14.0 17.8 20.1 21.9 23.5 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 9.3 9.5 10.2 12.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 2.0 Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.9 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.1 6.9 7.7 5.5

Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 6.0 Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.2 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.9 Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 6.6 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.4 6.6 6.5 7.3 8.0 8.1 8.2 0.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6 Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -1.0 Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8 Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.3

Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Yemen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 3.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.6 2.6

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 4.5 Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 4.5 Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.8 Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.4 Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 — Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 4.3 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.9 4.1 4.9 6.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 4.7 Argentina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.1 Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.9 Ecuador. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 3.0 Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.9 Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.0

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65.7 80.4 81.9 88.7 99.9 108.6 118.5 128.3 1.8
OPEC Share of World Production. . . . . . . 38% 41% 42% 43% 41% 42% 44% 47% Persian Gulf Share of World Production . . 25% 28% 29% 27% 26% 27% 30% 32%

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

### Table G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 

### Appendix G

198 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History (Estimates) Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OPEC a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.5

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.5 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 7.9
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.0

OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.1

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.6 Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.3 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 5.6

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.5 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 9.6 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3
World

Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 10.0 Gas-to-Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.9 Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.6 2.4 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.4 2.9 Selected Country Highlights

Biofuels

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.8 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 — United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.1 Coal-to-Liquids

Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 — Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 19.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 — Gas-to-Liquids

Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 — South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 —

a OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-12). Note: Gas-to-Liquids includes the production of MTBE, most of which has been phased out due to decreased demand in the United States.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets, run 2007March21a (2007).

# Appendix H 

# Reference Case Projections for Electricity Capacity and Generation by Fuel

### Table H1. World Total Installed Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 201 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 1,114 1,177 1,164 1,234 1,317 1,418 0.9

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 946 998 960 1,010 1,076 1,159 0.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 122 136 144 150 155 1.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 56 68 80 91 104 2.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 726 756 782 820 841 895 0.8 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 413 424 436 446 465 1.0

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 273 271 277 281 289 0.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 77 83 86 89 94 1.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 57 63 69 73 76 81 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,199 2,345 2,370 2,491 2,605 2,777 0.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 398 439 484 530 575 627 1.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 230 248 271 288 312 1.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 209 236 259 287 315 2.1 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715 905 1,118 1,329 1,533 1,745 3.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 510 631 764 886 1,014 3.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 165 201 233 262 296 3.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 192 230 286 332 385 436 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 144 163 179 197 216 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 132 164 201 225 247 3.4 Central and South America . . . . . . 213 260 294 331 366 402 2.5

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 119 139 161 183 204 3.4 Other Central and South America. . 126 141 155 170 184 198 1.7

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,541 1,880 2,223 2,571 2,897 3,236 2.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,741 4,225 4,593 5,062 5,501 6,014 1.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H2. World Installed Liquids-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Appendix H

202 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 144 141 113 113 112 111 -1.0

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 121 92 91 91 89 -1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444433 -1.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 16 17 18 18 19 1.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 24 23 23 22 21 -1.7 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 42 38 37 36 35 -0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 34 31 30 30 30 -0.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776655 -1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 111111 -1.2

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 207 175 173 170 167 -1.0

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 24 21 20 19 19 18 -1.1

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 865555 -1.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 15 15 14 14 13 -0.8 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 56 58 61 63 64 0.8

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 11 11 11 11 9 -1.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 5 6 6 6 1.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 35 40 42 44 46 49 1.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 47 54 58 64 70 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 10 11 11 12 12 0.9 Central and South America . . . . . . 27 28 28 28 28 27 0.0

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 5 5 5 5 5 1.0 Other Central and South America. . 23 22 23 23 23 22 -0.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 162 171 177 185 191 0.9

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 369 346 351 355 358 -0.1

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H3. World Installed Natural-Gas-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 203 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 341 382 384 415 446 487 1.4

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 349 338 358 381 411 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 13 18 21 21 21 2.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 20 27 36 44 55 4.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 225 263 305 334 379 2.8 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 149 156 161 164 174 1.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 119 120 124 127 133 1.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 16 17 17 17 18 2.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 9 14 19 21 20 23 3.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639 756 803 881 944 1,039 1.9

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 142 175 203 224 248 288 2.8

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 108 120 131 136 153 2.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 67 84 94 111 135 3.9 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 108 146 178 228 286 4.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 11 17 24 38 58 8.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 16 23 27 32 36 5.0 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 70 81 106 126 158 192 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 82 93 104 116 127 2.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 53 72 98 114 129 4.7 Central and South America . . . . . . 48 62 73 86 98 111 3.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 10 13 16 19 21 4.5 Other Central and South America. . 41 52 60 70 79 90 3.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377 479 588 690 803 941 3.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,016 1,235 1,391 1,571 1,748 1,980 2.6

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H4. World Installed Coal-Fired Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Appendix H

204 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 340 350 361 392 447 508 1.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 325 329 354 406 465 1.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 16 22 25 26 25 1.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 8 11 13 15 17 3.8 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 173 158 157 145 145 -1.1 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 115 112 112 115 117 0.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 47 43 41 40 40 -0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 35 36 36 36 38 1.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 33 33 33 35 38 40 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 636 637 631 661 706 770 0.7

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 105 114 124 137 147 158 1.6

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 48 48 53 56 60 0.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 66 76 84 91 98 2.2 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 541 685 827 948 1,073 3.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 379 475 584 675 768 4.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 105 128 146 164 186 3.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 42 57 81 97 109 119 4.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 9 9 9 9 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 45 55 66 73 79 3.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 6 10 13 14 15 16 4.1

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 5 7 7 7 8 6.7 Other Central and South America. . 4 5 6 7 7 8 2.4

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544 717 885 1,053 1,192 1,335 3.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,180 1,354 1,516 1,714 1,899 2,105 2.3

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H5. World Installed Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 205 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 112 117 119 129 129 131 0.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 101 102 112 112 113 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 15 15 15 16 17 1.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 129 126 115 113 114 -0.6 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 66 75 83 86 92 1.5

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 49 53 57 58 60 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 17 22 26 28 32 2.7 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 311 319 326 327 336 0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 42 41 46 57 66 65 1.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 22 27 33 41 42 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 18 18 23 25 22 0.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 20 36 51 65 72 6.3

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 9 18 28 36 42 7.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 9 13 17 19 7.8 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 6 6 8 10 12 11 2.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 011111 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 2 2 3 3 1.8 Central and South America . . . . . . 3 3 4 5 5 5 1.6

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 3 3 3 3 1.6 Other Central and South America. . 1 1 1 2 2 2 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 67 89 116 139 145 3.4

Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368 378 408 442 466 481 1.0

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H6. World Installed Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generating Capacity by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Gigawatts) 

### Appendix H

206 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 206 220 223 228 235 243 0.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 134 136 137 139 142 0.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 75 76 79 84 88 0.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 11 11 12 12 12 0.6 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 205 212 220 228 236 1.0 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 41 43 44 45 47 0.6

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 23 24 25 26 27 0.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 15 15 16 17 17 18 0.6

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 466 478 492 508 526 0.8

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 86 88 91 93 95 98 0.5

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 46 47 49 50 51 0.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 42 43 44 45 47 0.5 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 180 194 213 229 249 1.5

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 100 109 117 126 136 1.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 34 36 41 43 48 1.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 40 46 49 55 60 65 1.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 7 7 7 8 8 0.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 22 23 23 24 24 0.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 129 158 177 199 222 244 2.5

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 97 112 130 148 168 3.3 Other Central and South America. . 56 61 65 69 73 77 1.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 455 490 535 578 624 1.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 838 921 969 1,026 1,086 1,150 1.2

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H7. World Total Net Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 207 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 4,619 5,141 5,579 5,990 6,409 6,887 1.5

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,804 4,214 4,519 4,810 5,125 5,487 1.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573 640 708 757 795 835 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 287 352 423 488 565 3.3 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,250 3,470 3,564 3,709 3,833 4,044 0.8 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,586 1,873 1,976 2,061 2,138 2,259 1.4

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 974 1,133 1,155 1,183 1,209 1,257 1.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 447 506 541 570 617 2.3 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 266 293 315 336 360 385 1.4

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,455 10,484 11,120 11,759 12,380 13,190 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 1,497 1,768 2,036 2,284 2,503 2,731 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882 997 1,121 1,258 1,375 1,493 2.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615 770 915 1,026 1,128 1,238 2.7 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,517 4,778 6,161 7,488 8,807 10,185 4.2

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,080 2,894 3,728 4,587 5,446 6,339 4.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631 867 1,098 1,292 1,492 1,705 3.9 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 807 1,018 1,335 1,608 1,869 2,141 3.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567 740 849 947 1,062 1,185 2.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505 643 797 975 1,113 1,235 3.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 882 1,140 1,326 1,506 1,672 1,838 2.9

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 556 677 783 888 996 3.8 Other Central and South America. . 501 584 649 723 784 842 2.0

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,969 9,069 11,169 13,200 15,157 17,174 3.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,424 19,554 22,289 24,959 27,537 30,364 2.4

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H8. World Net Liquids-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix H

208 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 210 192 210 213 213 215 0.1

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 95 103 103 105 107 -0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 14 16 14 12 10 -1.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 83 91 95 96 98 1.0 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 79 76 75 70 67 -1.5 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 116 109 104 104 104 -0.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 90 83 80 79 78 -0.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 24 24 22 23 24 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 2 2 1 1 2.3

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416 387 394 392 387 386 -0.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 49 44 44 42 42 41 -0.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 16 16 15 15 15 -1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 28 28 27 27 26 -0.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 162 189 202 210 207 1.6

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 37 43 48 48 37 0.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 16 18 19 20 20 1.5 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 91 108 128 135 142 149 1.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 249 283 312 346 381 2.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 55 61 62 63 65 1.0 Central and South America . . . . . . 91 92 94 97 102 98 0.3

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 13 14 14 13 13 1.2 Other Central and South America. . 82 78 80 83 88 86 0.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 601 671 714 762 792 1.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 937 988 1,065 1,106 1,149 1,178 0.9

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H9. World Net Natural-Gas-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 209 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 833 1,038 1,224 1,324 1,317 1,317 1.8

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715 897 1,023 1,065 1,011 942 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 37 56 63 66 67 2.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 104 146 195 241 307 5.1 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 749 898 1,070 1,230 1,394 3.8 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333 473 509 526 536 571 2.1

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 356 367 380 388 411 1.6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 69 76 73 76 78 2.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 22 48 67 73 72 82 5.1

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,697 2,260 2,632 2,919 3,083 3,282 2.6

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 579 755 904 1,018 1,133 1,315 3.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 472 545 607 646 723 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 283 359 411 488 592 4.4 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 468 638 795 1,001 1,259 4.9

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 22 35 53 82 126 9.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 91 129 154 183 207 6.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 303 354 474 587 735 926 4.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326 430 497 563 641 724 3.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 171 241 335 399 475 5.3 Central and South America . . . . . . 144 199 243 285 325 369 3.7

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 27 36 46 56 62 5.0 Other Central and South America. . 126 172 206 239 269 307 3.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,533 2,021 2,523 2,995 3,498 4,141 3.9
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,231 4,282 5,155 5,914 6,581 7,423 3.3

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H10. World Net Coal-Fired Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix H

210 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 2,117 2,280 2,486 2,716 3,130 3,589 2.1

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,979 2,142 2,295 2,489 2,880 3,330 2.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 84 123 144 149 152 1.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 54 68 84 101 107 3.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052 938 869 881 824 826 -0.9 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 682 686 691 719 743 0.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 276 264 251 247 245 0.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 214 228 232 242 255 2.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 194 192 194 207 230 244 0.9

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,756 3,900 4,041 4,287 4,673 5,159 1.2

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 316 392 455 498 516 554 2.2

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 189 192 215 225 241 1.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 203 263 283 292 313 3.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,365 3,377 4,381 5,334 6,252 7,229 4.4

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,658 2,423 3,122 3,835 4,554 5,317 4.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 627 777 894 1,021 1,174 3.6 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 241 327 482 605 677 737 4.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 42 48 50 52 54 2.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 310 383 464 527 566 3.6 Central and South America . . . . . . 26 54 70 79 82 87 4.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 26 39 42 43 47 7.2 Other Central and South America. . 18 27 31 37 39 40 3.2

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,966 4,174 5,337 6,424 7,428 8,491 4.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,723 8,074 9,378 10,711 12,102 13,650 2.8

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H11. World Net Nuclear Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Reference Case Electricity Capacity and Generation Projections

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 211 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 883 910 936 1,012 1,015 1,033 0.6

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 789 789 812 885 886 896 0.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 110 113 116 118 126 1.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 11 11 11 11 11 0.9 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 941 914 902 835 831 847 -0.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 433 497 559 592 646 1.9

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 299 325 352 370 394 1.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 134 172 207 222 252 2.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 000000 —

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,220 2,257 2,335 2,406 2,438 2,526 0.5

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 263 278 323 405 479 476 2.3

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 149 190 236 299 315 3.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 129 133 169 180 161 1.0 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 148 265 389 495 557 6.7

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 64 135 217 283 329 7.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 37 66 97 124 144 9.1 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 40 47 64 75 88 84 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 056666 — Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 14 15 15 21 21 1.5 Central and South America . . . . . . 19 20 28 34 33 33 2.2

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 13 18 22 22 22 2.5 Other Central and South America. . 7 7 10 12 11 11 1.6

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 465 637 849 1,034 1,093 4.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,619 2,722 2,972 3,255 3,472 3,619 1.3

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

### Table H12. World Net Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Electricity Generation From Central Producers by Region and Country, 2004-2030 (Billion Kilowatthours) 

### Appendix H

212 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 Region/Country History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, 2004-2030 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD

OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . 748 898 925 953 1,003 1,043 1.3

United States a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370 469 487 495 512 522 1.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 394 401 420 452 481 1.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 35 36 38 39 41 0.7 OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 626 791 819 848 878 909 1.4 OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 169 175 181 188 195 0.7

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 113 117 121 125 129 0.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 6 6 7 7 7 0.7 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 49 51 52 54 56 58 0.7

Total OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,537 1,858 1,919 1,983 2,069 2,147 1.3

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. . . 289 300 310 321 333 345 0.7

Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 172 179 185 191 198 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 127 132 137 141 146 0.7 Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 624 688 768 850 934 2.0

China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 348 393 434 479 529 1.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 95 107 128 144 159 2.2 Other Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . 132 181 187 207 226 245 2.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 15 15 16 18 20 1.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 93 97 100 104 108 0.7 Central and South America . . . . . . 603 776 891 1,011 1,131 1,251 2.8

Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 477 569 659 754 852 3.7 Other Central and South America. . 268 300 322 352 377 399 1.5

Total Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,548 1,808 2,002 2,217 2,435 2,657 2.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,086 3,666 3,921 4,199 4,504 4,804 1.7

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2004 (May-July 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 , DOE/EIA-0383(2007) (Washington, DC, February 2007), AEO2007 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2007.D112106A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007).

# Appendix I 

# Comparisons With International Energy Agency and IEO2006 Projections

Comparisons with IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2006 The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides projec

tions comparable with those in IEO2007 in its World Energy Outlook 2006 . Because IEA releases projections only for the years 2015 and 2030, two time periods are compared here—2004 to 2015 and 2015 to 2030. In the 2004 to 2015 projection period, both IEO2007 and IEA expect world energy demand to increase by an aver

age of 2.1 percent per year (Table I1). Not surprisingly, both outlooks project much faster growth in energy demand among the non-OECD nations than in the OECD, with non-OECD energy use growing three timesas rapidly. There are, however, some regional differences. IEA’s expectations for demand growth in OECD Asia, for instance, are much higher than those in IEO2007, and the projected 1.4-percent annual growth rate projected by IEA for the region exceeds the 1.3-percent rate in the IEO2007 high economic growth

case. In the non-OECD regions, both outlooks have similar projections for growth in Europe and Eurasia. IEO2007 projects 1.6-percent average annual growth in energy use between 2004 and 2015, and IEA projects 1.4-percent annual growth. IEA projects much slower growth than IEO2007 over the 2004 to 2015 period for China and other non-OECD Asia, as well as for Africa and Central and South America. In each case, IEA’s projected growth rates are lower than those in the IEO2007 low economic growth case. On the other hand, IEA’s projected 4.2-percent annual growth in Middle Eastern energy use over the same period is much higher than the projection of 3.1 percent per year in the IEO2007 reference case and, in fact, exceeds the projected growth rate in the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth case. In the later years of the projections, IEO2007 and IEA generally agree, with worldwide energy demand grow

ing by 1.5 percent per year between 2015 and 2030 in the IEO2007 reference case and by 1.3 percent per year in theIEA projection (Table I2). Both outlooks anticipate similar regional growth over the 2015 to 2030 period. Thelargest regional difference between the two projections—and the only instance in which IEA regional growth projections fall outside the range defined by the IEO2007 low and high macroeconomic growth cases—is for China. IEA anticipates that China’s energy demand growth will slow to 2.0 percent per year for the final 15 years of the outlook, whereas the IEO2007 reference case expects that China will maintain a 2.7-percent annual growth rate in energy demand through the end of the

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 213 

### Table I1. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2004-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2007 IEA Low Growth Reference High Growth
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.0

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.5 4.9 4.0 Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.4 4.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.1 Central and South America . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1

Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: Inter

national Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.

### projection period. The IEA growth projection for energy use in China from 2015 to 2030 is lower than the IEO2007 low macroeconomic growth case projection. The projections vary not only with respect to levels of total energy demand but also with respect to the mix of primary energy inputs. In the 2004 to 2015 period, IEA expects slightly higher growth in fossil fuel use and slower growth in the use of non-fossil fuels than does IEO2007 (Table I3). For both renewables and nuclear power consumption, the growth rates projected by IEA are slower than those in the IEO2007 low economic growth case. For renewables, the differences may be explained by the fact that IEA renewables projections include estimates for traditional, non-marketed biomass and the IEO2007 projections do not. Traditional biomass is a substantial portion of the renewable energy base and is not expected, in most regions, to expand as nations migrate away from non-marketed to commercial energy use over the projection period—in contrast to hydroelec

tric power and other marketed renewable energy sources captured in the IEO2007 projection. For nuclear power, there are only small differences in projected growth rates between the IEO2007 high macroeconomic growth and reference cases and no dif

ference between the reference case and the low macro

economic growth case. This is because the projections include only a limited number of plants, which are already planned or under construction, with expected completion dates before 2015 that analysts largely agree are achievable. For the period from 2015 to 2030, IEO2007 and IEA are largely in agreement. The only exception is nuclear power, for which the IEA growth projection falls below

214 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Table I2. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2015-2030 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2007 IEA Low Growth Reference High Growth
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.8

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.7 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.1 2.6 1.8

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.0 Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.8 Central and South America . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.0
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.3

Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: Inter

national Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.



### Table I3. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2004-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2007 IEA Low Growth Reference High Growth Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.7 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.0

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass. Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: Inter

national Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.

### that in the IEO2007 low macroeconomic growth case (Table I4). IEA projects that nuclear power expansion will slow from the annual growth rate of 1.2 percent pro

jected for relative to the 2004 to 2015 period to 0.4 per

cent for the 2015 to 2030 period. IEO2007 projects increases in world nuclear power use averaging 1.3 per

cent per year from 2015 to 2030, compared with 1.5 per

cent per year from 2004 to 2015. 

# Comparisons With IEO2006

The IEO2007 outlook for total energy consumption in 2015 is largely the same as the outlook in IEO2006 . In IEO2007 total marketed energy consumption in 2015 is projected to be 559 quadrillion Btu, as compared with 563 quadrillion Btu in IEO2006 (Table I5). There are, however, some regional differences between the two IEO s. In IEO2007, total energy consumption for the OECD region in 2030 is about 5 quadrillion Btu lower than was projected in IEO2006 . Most (3 quadrillion Btu) of the difference is attributed to lower demand in North America (largely, the United States), where the projec

tion for average annual GDP growth from 2003 to 2015 is 0.2 percentage points lower in IEO2007 than was projected in IEO2006

. For the non-OECD region, the largest differences between the projections for 2015 in IEO2007 and IEO2006 are found in two regions—China and non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In IEO2007, China’s projected totalenergy use in 2015 is 5 quadrillion Btu higher than projected in IEO2006 . IEO2007 assumes much more rapid economic growth for China between 2003 and 2015 than was assumed in IEO2006—8.1 percent per year versus 7.0 percent per year. A 10-percent increase in China’s GDP between 2003 and 2004 helped to spur a 20-percent increase in its energy use, a development that was not anticipated in the IEO2006 projection, which was based on historical data series that ended in 2003. For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, the IEO2007 refer

ence case projects total energy consumption in 2015 that is 4 quadrillion Btu lower than projected in IEO2006

. Nearly all of the difference resulted from a reassessment of energy demand in the region’s industrial sector. For example, in the IEO2006 reference case, demand for elec

tric power in the industrial sector was projected to increase by an average of 4.3 percent per year from 2003 to 2015; in IEO2007, the corresponding projection is for a more moderate growth rate of 2.4 percent per year. EIA believes that the lower rate is more consistent with the annual increases seen in the region’s industrial electric

ity consumption since 1998 (when industrial sector elec

tricity use stopped declining after the fall of the Soviet Union and began to recover), which have averaged about 2.5 percent per year. 20



### The near-term differences between the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections are carried through to 2030. The IEO2007 reference case projection for total energy use worlwide in 2030 is 20 quadrillion Btu (about 3 percent) lower than the IEO2006 projection. Again, the largest regional differences between the 2030 projections are for China and non-OECD Europe and Eurasia. In the IEO2007 reference case, China’s GDP is projected to increase at an average rate of 6.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2030, 0.6 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate projected for China in IEO2006 . As a result, the reference case projection for China’s total energy use in 2030 is 6 quadrillion Btu (5 percent) higher in IEO2007 than was projected in IEO2006 . For non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, total projected energy consumption in 2030 is 7 quadrillion Btu lower in IEO2007 than it was in IEO2006 , largely as a result of EIA’s reassessment of the potential for growth in the industrial sector. Along with regional differences between the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections, there are some differences

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 215 

### Table I4. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEA World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2015-2030 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2007 IEA Low Growth Reference High Growth Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.8 2.3 1.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.4 Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.3 Note: In the IEA projections, Renewable/Other includes traditional biomass. Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEA: Inter

national Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), pp. 492-527.

20 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances in Non-OECD Countries (Paris, France, 2006), web site http://data.iea.org.

### between the two projections in the mix of energy resources expected to be consumed (Table I6). The pro

jections for worldwide consumption of petroleum and other liquids consumption are virtually the same throughout the projections, but there are pronounced differences in the other fuel outlooks. In IEO2007, the potential for nuclear power is viewed with more opti

mism than it was in IEO2006 . As a result, the projection for nuclear power consumption in 2015 is 5 percent higher in IEO2007 than in IEO2006 , and the difference between the two projections increases to 14 percent in 2030. With the higher projection for nuclear power in the IEO2007 reference case, projections for consumption of natural gas and renewables in the electric power sector are lower throughout the period from 2004 to 2030. The impact on renewable energy sources is larger: total renewable energy use is 12 percent lower in 2015 and 14 percent lower in 2030 in the IEO2007 projections than in IEO2006 . The difference is somewhat inflated, however, because consumption of biofuels in the IEO2007 projec

tions is included with petroleum and other liquids con

sumption, whereas it was included with renewable energy consumption in IEO2006 . Removing the trans

portation biofuels portion of renewable energy con

sumption from the IEO2006 projections reduces the difference to about 10 percent in both 2015 and 2030.

216 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 

### Table I5. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2006 Total World Energy Consumption, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030 (Quadrillion Btu)

Region 2015 2030 Change in IEO2007 IEO2007 IEO2006 IEO2007 IEO2006 2015 2030
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 270 298 309 -5 -11

North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 140 162 166 -3 -5

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 114 131 134 -2 -3 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 87 89 95 -1 -5 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 43 47 48 -1 -1 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 293 404 413 1 -9

Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 59 63 72 79 -3 -7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 92 145 139 5 6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 23 32 33 -1 -1 Other Non-OECD Asia. . . . . . . . 36 35 50 52 1 -2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 28 38 38 1 0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 20 25 27 -1 -2 Central and South America . . . . 31 32 41 46 -1 -4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 563 702 722 -4 -20

Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEO2006 : EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 , DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), Table A1, p. 83.



### Table I6. Comparison of IEO2007 and IEO2006 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, Reference Case, 2015 and 2030 (Quadrillion Btu)

Fuel 2015 2030 Change in IEO2007 IEO2007 IEO2006 IEO2007 IEO2006 2015 2030 Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 199 239 239 -2 0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 140 170 190 -6 -19 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 144 199 196 7 4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 31 40 35 2 5 Renewable/Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 48 53 61 -5 -8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 559 563 702 722 -4 -20 Sources: IEO2007 : Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2007). IEO2006 : EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 , DOE/EIA-0484(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2006), Table A2, pp. 84-85.

# Appendix J 

# System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE)

Projections of world energy consumption and supply in IEO2007 were generated using EIA’s SAGE model.SAGE is used to project energy use in detail at the enduse sector level. It is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy con

sumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each region’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply. Period-by-period market simulations aim to provideeach region’s energy services at minimum cost by simultaneously making end-use equipment and primary energy supply decisions. For example, in SAGE, if there is an increase in residential lighting energy service, either existing generation equipment must be used more intensively or new equipment must be installed. Thechoice of generation equipment (type and fuel) incorporates analysis of both the characteristics of alternative generation technologies and the economics of primary energy supply. SAGE produces projections for 16 regions or countries of the world, including OECD North America as a whole and the United States, Canada, and Mexico individually; OECD Europe; OECD Asia and the countries of Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand individually; non-OECD Europe and Eurasia as a whole and Russia individually; non-OECD Asia and China and India indi

vidually; and Central and South America as a whole and Brazil individually. Projections of world oil prices over the projection horizon are provided to the IEO2007 from EIA’s AEO2007 . All U.S. projections are taken from AEO2007

. IEO2007 provides projections of total world marketed energy consumption, as well as projections of energy consumption by primary energy type (liquids, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric and other renew

able resources) and projections of net electricity con

sumption. Projections of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from fossil fuel use are also provided. A new addition to this year’s report is the inclusion of world oil price scenarios. The World Energy Projections Plus (WEPS+) model is an enhancement to the SAGE modeling system that was used to generate the high and low world oil price cases that appear in IEO2007, as well as the high and low macroeconomic growth cases. WEPS+ is a microeconomic model, used primarily to provide alternative energy projections under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel prices. It serves as a repository for reference case output gener

ated from complex models that focus on specific supply or demand series. The reference case reflects output from those models and incorporates analysts’ judgment on the potential for demand by end-use sector and fuel type on a regional basis. Carbon dioxide emissions, elec

tricity generation, and installed electricity generation capacity also are projected within the WEPS+ system.
After the reference case is established, WEPS+ is used to calculate coefficients for the response surface and save them into a database. The reference case output tables reflect the same information that is embedded in the input tables. Alternative cases reflect changes inassumptions about future economic growth (as measured in GDP) and prices. When an alternative case isrun, the model uses the previously calculated coefficients to produce new projections relative to changes in GDP and energy prices and produces output tables that reflect the changes. The projections for world liquids production in IEO2007 reflect an expanded assessment of world oil supply, using assumptions about additions to proved reserves, the relationship between proved reserves and produc

tion, geopolitical constraints, and prices to generate conventional crude oil production cases. Projections of conventional liquids production for 2009 through 2015 are based on analysis of investment and development trends around the globe. Projections of unconventional liquids production are based on exogenous analysis. Nine major streams of liquids production are tracked on a volume basis: (1) crude oil and lease condensates, (2) natural gas plant liquids, (3) refinery gains, (4) Canadian oil sands, (5) ultra-heavy oils, (6) coal-to-liquids, (7) gas-to-liquids, (8) shale oils, and (9) biofuels (tracked on both a volume basis and an oil equivalent basis). Biofuels are reported in terms of barrels of oil equiva

lent, unless otherwise stated. A full description of the SAGE model is available in a two-volume set. The first volume provides a general understanding of the model’s design, theoretical basis, necessary user-defined assumptions, and output. It also

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 217

### lists the software necessary to develop and analyze the results of SAGE-based policy and energy market scenar

ios. In addition, Volume I includes a Reference Guide, which explains each equation in detail. The second vol

ume serves as a User’s Guide for those actively develop

ing SAGE-based scenario analyses. The documentation is available on EIA’s web site in the model documenta

tion section of “Current Publications” (http://www. eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html). SAGE documenta

tion is also available as part of the documentation for the MARKAL family of models (http://www. etsap.org/ MRKLDOC-III_SAGE.pdf).

218 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007

# Appendix K 

# Regional Definitions

The six basic country groupings used in this report (Figure K1) are defined as follows:

• OECD (18 percent of the 2007 world population):

North America—United States, Canada, and Mexico; OECD Europe—Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxem

bourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. OECD Asia—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

• Non-OECD (82 percent of the 2007 world popula

tion):

- Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (5 percent of

the 2007 world population)—Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. - Non-OECD Asia (53 percent of the 2007 world population)—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia (Kampuchea), China, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Hong Kong, India, Indo

nesia, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solo

mon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.

- Middle East (3 percent of the 2007 world popula

tion)—Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

- Africa (14 percent of the 2007 world popula

tion)—Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, CentralAfrican Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 219 Key

Africa OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD Asia Middle East

Central and South America 

### Figure K1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

### Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, St. Helena, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

- Central and South America (7 percent of the 2007

world population)—Antarctica, Antigua and Bar

buda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahama Islands, Barba

dos, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Gre

nada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Neth

erlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama Republic, Par

aguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Venezuela. In addition, the following commonly used country groupings are referenced in this report:

• Countries that have ratified, accepted, acceded, or

approved the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions as of April 17, 2007: Albania, Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mal

dives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Monaco, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, North Korea, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Samoa, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solo

mon Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turk

menistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zambia.

• Annex I Countries participating in the Kyoto

Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emis

sions: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, European Com

munity, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hun

gary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechten

stein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Nether

lands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. 21



### • European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria,

Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy,Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

• G8: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia,

United Kingdom, and the United States.

• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Member Countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

• Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

• Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC): Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

• Pacific Rim Developing Countries: Hong Kong,

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

• Persian Gulf Countries: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,

Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

220 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2007 21 Turkey is an Annex I nation that has not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol, and in 2002 Australia announced that it will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol unless the United States does.