2020 CENSUS

Initial Research 

Milestones Generally 

Met but Plans Needed 

to Mitigate Highest 

Risks

Report to Congressional Requesters

November 2012

GAO-13-53

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO
United States Government Accountability Office

Highlights of GAO-13-53, a report to 

congressional requesters

November 2012

2020 CENSUS

Initial Research Milestones Generally Met but Plans 

Needed to Mitigate Highest Risks

Why GAO Did This Study

GAO’s prior work has shown that it will 

be important for the Bureau to reexamine the design of the census in 

order to ensure a cost effective census 

in 2020. As requested, this report 

evaluates the Bureau’s efforts to 

improve the cost-effectiveness of the

enumeration, paying particular 

attention to the following three key 

efforts: (1) leveraging the Internet to 

increase self-response; (2) improving 

how the Bureau builds its address and 

mapping databases, including a 

possible move to targeted address 

canvassing, and use of private-sector 

geographic data; (3) and using 

administrative records to reduce 

nonresponse follow-up costs. This 

report (1) identifies what opportunities 

and risks, if any, the Bureau might 

need to consider for these efforts going 

forward and (2) examines to what 

extent these three efforts are on track 

with respect to scheduling, resources, 

and other performance metrics. To 

meet these objectives, GAO reviewed 

Bureau documents and interviewed 

officials.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Acting 

Census Director take a number of 

actions to improve the Bureau’s 

research and testing for the 2020 

Census, such as developing risk 

mitigation plans, contingency plans 

and cost estimates for each project, 

and performance metrics and skill sets 

for those projects that do not have 

them. The Department of Commerce 

concurred with GAO’s findings and 

recommendations and provided one 

clarification, which was included in the 

final report. Also, the Bureau in its 

comments noted that it has begun to 

address GAO’s recommendations.

What GAO Found

According to U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) officials, to inform timely design 

decisions, research on new methods to improve the cost effectiveness of the 

2020 Census must be accomplished early enough in the decade to confirm their 

likely impact on both cost and quality. Three key efforts—(1) the use of the 

Internet as a response option, (2) a potential move towards targeted address 

canvassing, and (3) the possible use of administrative records to replace data 

collected during census field operations—present the Bureau with potential 

opportunities to reduce costs while maintaining quality. The Bureau’s 2020 

Research and Testing Program has 14 fiscal year 2012 projects focused on 

informing design decisions related to the three key efforts. Bureau officials are 

also aware that the changes they are testing come with many risks, and for each 

project the Bureau has identified a number of risks and prioritized them from high 

to low. However, the Bureau has not developed mitigation or contingency plans 

for these project risks. For example, there are several risks, including tight time

frames and accurate cost information, without mitigation and contingency plans. 

Additionally, GAO found that the Bureau had not developed cost estimates for 

any of its 2020 research and testing projects as required in guidance provided to 

project teams. Unreliable cost estimates was one of the reasons the 2010 

Census was placed on GAO’s high-risk list. Without timely cost estimates, it will 

be difficult for the Bureau to ensure that resources are adequate to support the 

research and testing program. 

The Bureau met its internal deadline for submitting each of its 14 research 

project’s plans and charters. However, not all the project plans were complete. 

For example, some project teams did not fully document the types of skills 

needed or perform a skills gap assessment to determine the resources needed to 

carry out their respective projects as required in the Bureau’s planning template. 

According to Bureau officials, they are working to document these skills sets, as 

well as any gaps in skills. Completing this analysis is important to ensuring 

sufficient resources are available for conducting the research and testing 

projects. Additionally, performance metric documentation for several projects was 

incomplete. According to Bureau guidance, project teams were to provide 

performance metrics for measuring progress and for determining the project’s 

final outcome. However, one team did not provide either of these required 

performance metrics, while six other teams did not include performance metrics 

that could be used to monitor research and testing progress. Absent these 

metrics, the Bureau does not have the assurance that it will be able to avoid 

potential schedule slips or the certainty as to whether project outcomes will be 

adequate for making decisions.

View GAO-13-53. For more information, 

contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 

or goldenkoffr@gao.gov.
Page i GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Letter 1 

Background 3

Key Efforts Present the Bureau with Both Opportunities and Risks 8

Research and Testing Project Plans Were Delivered on Schedule, 

but Not All Project-Level Resources and Performance Metrics 

Have Been Identified 20

Conclusion 21

Recommendations for Executive Action 22

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 23

Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 26

Appendix II Fourteen Research Projects Will Inform Design Decisions on Key 

Efforts (Text for Interactive Figure 3) 28

Appendix III Census Mapping and Address Contracts 30

Appendix IV Comments from the Department of Commerce 31

Appendix V GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 33

Related GAO Products 34

Tables

Table 1: Project Teams Involved in Development of Internet 

Response Option 28

Table 2: Project Teams Contributing to Decision to Use 

Administrative Records 28

Table 3: Project Teams Contributing to Decision to Implement 

Targeted Address Canvassing 29

Contents
Page ii GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Figures

Figure 1: 2020 Census Design Alternatives Show Varying Degrees 

of Change, Risk, and Potential Cost Savings 4

Figure 2: The Life Cycle of the 2020 Census Has Five Phases 5

Figure 3: Research Projects Will Inform Design Decisions on Key 

Efforts 7

Abbreviations

ACS American Community Survey

Bureau U.S. Census Bureau

GSS Geographic Support Systems

LUCA Local Update of Census Addresses

MAF Master Address File

NRFU Nonresponse follow-up

TIGER® Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and 

Referencing

USPS United State Postal Service

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Page 1 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

United States Government Accountability Office

Washington, DC 20548

November 7, 2012

Congressional Requesters

The 2010 Census, at around $13 billion, was the most expensive 

headcount in our nation’s history. Meanwhile, the cost of conducting the 

census has, on average, nearly doubled each decade since 1970 in 

constant 2010 dollars. If that growth rate continues, the 2020 Census 

could potentially cost around $25 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau 

(Bureau) has recognized the need for more cost-effective approaches to 

conducting the enumeration and is committed to identifying and 

implementing innovations and improvements as necessary to conduct the 

2020 Census at a lower cost per housing unit than the approximately 

$100 per housing unit cost of the 2010 Census (in constant 2010 dollars) 

while still maintaining high quality. Between fiscal years 2012 and 2014, 

the Bureau will conduct its research and testing phase for the 2020 

Census in order to develop an initial design by September 2014. The 

decisions made in the decade’s first years shape the design and set the 

framework for later decisions that will affect how the census will be 

ultimately conducted.

As requested, this report evaluates the Bureau’s research efforts to 

improve the cost-effectiveness of the 2020 Census enumeration, paying 

particular attention to the following three key efforts that past Bureau 

research has shown could result in substantial cost savings:

• leveraging the Internet to increase self-response;

• improving how the Bureau builds its address and mapping databases, 

including a possible move to targeted address canvassing (as 

opposed to the full address canvassing used in earlier censuses, 

where field staff walked nearly every street in the country to verify the 

address list), and use of private-sector geographic data; and

 
 

Page 2 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

• using administrative records,1

Our objectives were to: (1) identify what opportunities and risks, if any, 

the Bureau might need to consider for these research efforts going 

forward and (2) examine to what extent these three research efforts are 

on track with respect to scheduling, resources, and other performance 

metrics. 

such as tax data, to reduce 

nonresponse follow-up costs.

To meet these objectives, we reviewed documentary evidence, including 

2020 Census research and testing plans, strategic framework documents, 

and our prior reports on the subject; and conducted interviews with 

cognizant Bureau officials, as well as knowledgeable stakeholders, such 

as those at the National Academy of Sciences, to determine opportunities 

and risks related to the Internet, administrative records and the address 

and mapping databases. We also obtained and compared Bureaudeveloped research planning requirements to research deliverables in 

order to identify gaps in the Bureau’s research and testing efforts as it 

relates to schedule, resources, and performance metrics. Additionally, we 

interviewed agency officials to identify the Bureau’s 2020 research and 

testing projects, timelines, and benchmarks. We obtained and reviewed 

contract-related documents related to geographic data and services, as 

well as interviewed Bureau officials to determine the Bureau’s plan for 

using the private sector to assist with the Bureau’s address and mapping 

needs. For more information on our scope and methodology see 

appendix I.

We conducted this performance audit from October 2011 to September 

2012 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing 

standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to 

obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for 

our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe 

that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings 

and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

 

1

Administrative records refer to data records contained in files collected and maintained 

by administrative or program agencies and commercial entities. Government and 

commercial entities maintain these files for the purpose of administering programs and 

providing services. 
 

Page 3 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

The Bureau’s 2020 Census early research agenda is focused on 

conducting the 2020 Census at a lower cost than the 2010 Census2 while 

maintaining high quality results. In order to do this the Bureau has 

developed a range of design alternatives for the 2020 Census. The 

Bureau’s 2020 design alternatives have potential for containing costs but 

also have the potential to increase risks. The design alternatives focus on 

options to use the Internet and other social media to increase response 

rate, target address canvassing, and expand the use of administrative 

records. Figure 1 shows the current range of six 2020 Census design 

alternatives currently being considered and how the three key efforts fit 

into them. According to the Bureau, the final 2020 design is likely to 

incorporate both existing approaches as well as design alternatives that 

have never been used in the decennial census. Greater changes to the 

overall design will result in greater potential for cost savings. However, 

greater design changes also could result in greater risk, and testing will 

be needed to identify the risks, costs, and benefits of any new 

approaches. According to the Bureau, alternative one has the lowest risk 

because it most closely mirrors the 2010 Census design (mailout of 

census forms, and in-person follow-up of non respondents) and is not 

dependent on implementing innovations such as increased use of 

administrative records and targeted address canvassing.

 

2

Per housing unit, on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Background 
 

Page 4 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Figure 1: 2020 Census Design Alternatives Show Varying Degrees of Change, Risk, and Potential Cost Savings 

The Bureau formally kicked off initial planning for the 2020 Census on 

October 3, 2008, with the 2020 Census Planning Summit. At that 

meeting, decennial-census managers and subject matter experts 

discussed challenges, strengths, and weaknesses that would need to be 

considered during the 2020 Census strategic decision-making process. 

From 2009 to 2011, during the options analysis phase of 2020 Census 

planning, Bureau officials went through a research topic winnowing 

process where they: identified cost and quality drivers, conducted 

brainstorming sessions, received expert input (e.g., National Academy of 

Sciences), cataloged over 600 ideas, clustered those ideas into over 100 

projects with research questions, and then prioritized them against the 

Bureau’s Guiding Principles3

 

3

The Bureau’s Guiding Principles for the 2020 Census are: Honor Privacy and 

Confidentiality; Be Objective; Commit to Quality; Contain Costs Wherever Possible; 

Leverage Assets, Methods, Knowledge, and Processes across the Bureau; and Be 

Responsive and Transparent to Partners and Stakeholders.

for the 2020 Census. The Bureau identified 

26 research projects to inform preliminary design decisions with the goal 
 

Page 5 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

of conducting the 2020 Census at a lower cost than the 2010 Census, 

while maintaining high quality.

Using the 26 research projects, Bureau officials plan to validate the 

feasibility of the various strategies for reducing costs between fiscal years 

2012 and 2014. Bureau officials stated that they are planning to narrow 

down the design alternatives by September 2014, and that research 

would continue into the next phase. Bureau officials believe that 

conducting research earlier in the decade will better position them to 

make more effective changes to the 2020 Census design. Figure 2 shows 

the five phases of the life cycle for the 2020 Census.

Figure 2: The Life Cycle of the 2020 Census Has Five Phases

The Bureau is now in the “Early Research and Testing” phase and is 

currently refining and developing its 26 project plans. These plans 

include, among other requirements, project goals, objectives, scope, 

limitations, and skills required, and had a set of required iterative research 

and testing deliverables due 30, 60, 90, and 120 days after project kickoff. 

According to Bureau documentation, this process encouraged the 

development and proper consideration of ideas. The Bureau selected 17 

of the 26 projects to start in fiscal year 2012. The remaining projects are 

scheduled to begin in fiscal years 2013 and 2014. Of the 17 research 

projects the Bureau is conducting in 2012, 14 projects are to inform 

design decisions related to the Internet, administrative records, and 
 

Page 6 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

targeted address canvassing. See figure 3 for a list of these 14 research 

projects and their objectives. According to the Bureau’s timeline, project 

teams are to complete their work on these 14 projects by September 

2014.4

 

4

A Bureau official stated that they are assessing the impact of the fiscal year 2013 

Continuing Resolution on their ability to complete all of their work by September 2014. 
Page 7 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Print instructions To print text version of this graphic, go to appendix II.

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Information.

Interactive graphic Figure 3: Fourteen Research Projects Will Inform Design Decisions on Key Efforts 

Move mouse over each activity to see more information afterwards CLICK to close the open pop-up information display panel.

Objectives in internet 

development

Project teams involved in development of 

Internet response option Project teams contributing to decision to 

use administrative records

Project teams contributing to decision to 

implement targeted address canvassing
 

Page 8 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Research on new methods likely to result in a more cost-effective 2020 

Census must be accomplished early enough in the decade to confirm 

their likely impact on both cost and quality and to inform timely design 

decisions. The use of the Internet as a response option, a potential move 

towards targeted address canvassing, and the possible use of 

administrative records to replace data collected during census field 

operations present the Bureau with opportunities to reduce costs while 

maintaining a high quality census. As part of the 2020 Census planning 

process the Bureau has identified both program-level and project-level 

risks associated with these options. According to the Bureau, programlevel risks span the entire 2020 research and testing phase and if not 

managed properly could jeopardize the phase’s goals and objectives. In 

contrast, project-level risks pertain to the successful completion of 

specific projects. However, the Bureau has not developed mitigation and 

contingency plans for the project-level risks. Also, the Bureau has not 

developed cost estimates for any of its 2020 research and testing projects 

as required in guidance provided to project teams. Finally, some of the 

project plans we reviewed were incomplete. For example, not all project 

plans identified the necessary staff resources, while other project plans 

failed to provide performance metrics for measuring progress and for 

determining the project’s final outcome.

During the 2000 Census, the Bureau piloted an Internet response option 

that had a limited number of respondents. They considered building on 

this 2000 experience for the 2010 Census, but the Bureau decided in July 

2006 not to include the Internet option in the design for the 2010 Census 

because test results indicated that the Internet option did not increase the 

overall response rate, including response among hard-to-count population 

groups, and they had underestimated the costs of the contract that 

included developing the Internet option.5

 

5

Census Bureau, Rationale for the Decision to Eliminate the Internet Option for the 2010 

Decennial Census, 2010 Decennial Census Program Decision Memorandum Series No. 

14 (Washington, D.C.: July 19, 2006). 

Key Efforts Present 

the Bureau with Both 

Opportunities and 

Risks 

All Three Key Efforts 

Present the Bureau with 

Cost Saving Opportunities

Internet
 

Page 9 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

However, more recent tests conducted in 2011 showed that adding an 

Internet response option increased the overall response rate. The 2011 

test results, coupled with the increased prevalence and accessibility of 

the Internet, led Bureau officials to commit to providing an Internet 

response option for the 2020 Census. With regard to the cost for the 2020 

Census, if this option can help achieve an overall increase in the 

response rate it can save money, since Bureau field staff would need to 

visit fewer households during nonresponse follow-up (NRFU), which is 

the largest and most costly census field operation.6 Furthermore, testing 

has shown that the cost of an Internet survey is low compared to a mail 

survey, which incurs printing and postage costs. Moreover, web survey 

responses are generally available more quickly and are of better quality 

than responses from a mail survey because there is no lag time as the 

responses are captured in real time and there are reminders to prompt 

the respondent if a question is unanswered. Quicker and complete 

responses can also help reduce the amount of time and money spent on 

following up on late or incomplete census forms.7

In April and November 2011, the Bureau tested an Internet response 

option in its American Community Survey (ACS),8

Given the Bureau’s decision to move forward with an Internet design 

option, six research and testing projects are focused on how best to 

implement an Internet response option in concert with other self-response 

options. The project team with primary responsibility for coordinating the 

design of the Internet response option is tasked with answering the 

following research question:

and beginning in 

January 2013, the Bureau plans to offer it as a response option. Bureau 

officials have stated that they intend to build on this existing information 

technology infrastructure in order to reduce the cost of implementing an 

Internet option for the 2020 Census.

 

6

During NRFU the Bureau sends enumerators to collect data from households that did not 

mail back their census forms. NRFU procedures instruct enumerators to make up to six 

attempts to contact a household. The 2010 Census NRFU operation cost $1.6 billion. 

7

We have a separate review underway examining the Bureau’s information technology 

security issues.

8

ACS is an ongoing survey that provides data every year. Information from the survey 

generates data that help determine how federal and state funds are distributed each year.
 

Page 10 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

• How does the Bureau leverage technology and new response modes 

(including the Internet) to increase self-response, improve 

nonresponse follow-up data collection strategies, while maintaining 

overall quality?

One objective of this project is to determine what contact strategy should 

be used to inform the public that census responses can be filed via the 

Internet in order to increase self-response (i.e., Bureau use of email, 

social networks or phone for initial contact or for reminders). Contact 

strategy testing will examine the impact of various Bureau instructions to 

respondents, as well as the timing of the delivery of the mailing pieces, on 

such factors as response rates, return rates, percentage of Internet 

returns, and speed of returns. This project will also determine what mode 

(paper, Internet, or phone) is best for each demographic, geographic, and 

language group, as well as determine the effect a lack of access to 

technology has on each demographic group. Additionally this project will 

refine and test security features. The other five projects will cover such 

areas as types of languages that will be offered by response mode, public 

perception and potential concerns about an Internet response, and 

management of the workload for multiple modes of response.

In the 2010 and earlier censuses, the Bureau mounted a full address 

canvassing operation, where field staff verified every housing unit in the 

nation to update the Master Address File (MAF) and the associated 

mapping system called TIGER® (Topologically Integrated Geographic 

Encoding and Referencing). This labor-intensive effort was one of the 

more expensive components of the 2010 Census: the 2010 Address 

Canvassing Operation required 140,000 temporary workers to verify 145 

million addresses (by going door-to-door) at a cost of $444 million, or 3 

percent of the $13 billion total cost of the 2010 Census. One of the 

reasons the Bureau conducted a full address canvassing for the 2010 

Census was because it wanted to capture hidden and hard-to-capture 

addresses, such as housing units in converted garages and large storage 

sheds. For the 2020 Census the Bureau would like to reduce the amount 

of field work and cost of address and map updates by targeting the 

address canvassing operation. According to Bureau planning documents, 

through early research and testing the Bureau plans to attempt to 

determine the quality and stability of its address file in terms of the 

number of changes (adds, deletes, duplicates, and corrected addresses) 

that took place to each census block in 2010. Depending on that 

outcome, the Bureau would target for address canvassing only those

blocks where the quality of the addresses was determined to be 

inadequate.

Targeted Address Canvassing 

and Use of the Private Sector 

for Geographic Data Services 
 

Page 11 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

To determine whether to target address canvassing for the 2020 Census, 

the Bureau has two ongoing efforts to improve the Bureau’s map and 

address databases. First, the Bureau’s Geography Division is working 

with the United States Postal Service (USPS) and other federal agencies 

on a new program called the Geographic Support Systems (GSS) 

Initiative, which allows government agencies at all levels to regularly 

share and continuously update their address lists with the Bureau. 

According to current plans, USPS will continue providing the Bureau with 

address updates. Likewise, tribal, state, and local governments, which 

maintain address lists for purposes such as emergency response and 

property assessment, will also have the opportunity to share addresses 

with the Bureau throughout the decade, rather than solely 2 years prior to 

the decennial, as had been the case in prior decennial censuses. 

Additionally, the GSS Initiative is working to develop, and in some cases 

improve, methods for identifying and capturing hidden and hard-tocapture addresses.

As part of this first effort, the Bureau is investigating the role and possible 

contributions the private sector can make in improving its address and 

mapping databases. For the 2010 Census the Bureau relied heavily on 

the private sector to update addresses and maps. Specifically, in June 

2002, the Bureau awarded an 8-year contract of about $200 million to 

improve the accuracy of its mapping database and investigate options 

and methods of updating its address database. The contract, among 

other tasks, corrected in TIGER® the location of streets, boundaries, and 

other map features so that coordinates would be aligned with their true 

geographic locations. According to Bureau officials, continued reliance on 

the private sector is necessary in order to maintain the major upgrades 

that were made to its address and mapping databases last decennial. 

The Geography Division has nine contracts in place, totaling about $90 

million dollars, to help it manage its mapping and address database (see 

app. III for a list of those contracts). Some of the work being done by the 

private sector includes a service contract to provide system upgrades and 

maintenance to the MAF/TIGER® database and a data entry services 

contract to update the MAF/TIGER® database with address information 

provided by state and local governments.

Moreover, to ensure the most current address and mapping data are 

available for the 2020 Census, the Bureau, in April 2012, began 

conducting market research with three private-sector firms to assess how 

those firms might assist the Bureau with its address and mapping needs. 

Possibilities to be explored include how to best maintain address and 

map data, understand private-sector innovation and technology, and 
 

Page 12 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

options for address and map data-sharing methods. According to Bureau 

officials, negotiations concerning the scope, tasks, and activities to be 

completed with the first contractor have taken place. However, 

negotiations with the remaining two firms have not begun. Use of the 

private sector for mapping is an area we have previously reported needs 

to be explored. Specifically, in December 2010, we listed a number of 

reexamination areas which have particular implications for controlling 

costs and improving accuracy and raised the question: To what extent 

can private-sector and other sources of information such as maps, 

address lists, and geographic databases be employed to help support the 

census?9

The second effort to improve the Bureau’s address and mapping 

database is centered on the 2020 Research and Testing Program. There 

are three research projects designed to inform the Bureau’s decision 

about the extent to which it might be able to conduct a targeted address 

canvassing operation. Two projects will use modeling to predict where 

coverage errors (e.g., missed or duplicate addresses) occur in the MAF. 

These models will be used to assess the quality of data sources, types of 

errors, and what information, such as a missing map location for an 

address, is not in the MAF. If the Bureau decides to conduct targeted 

address canvassing, this information will be used to determine which 

areas meet acceptable quality standards, as well as where targeted 

address canvassing would be effective. According to the Bureau, 

collectively the two projects are to answer the following question:

• As the related GSS Initiative proceeds, how will the Bureau determine 

the required level of quality needed in the address frame to conduct 

an accurate census and then measure the quality of the continually 

updated MAF for that purpose?

The third research project in this effort, the Local Update of Census 

Addresses (LUCA) Program Improvement project,10

 

9

GAO, 2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as Planned, 

but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental Reforms,

will examine how to 

modify the Bureau’s existing partnership program in consultation with the 

GAO-11-193 

(Washington, D.C.: Dec. 14, 2010).

10The LUCA Program was established by the Census Address List Improvement Act of 

1994 to improve the accuracy of census’ address list by exchanging information with tribal, 

state, and local governments.
 

Page 13 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

GSS Initiative. The LUCA program is a partnership program that provides 

an opportunity for local and tribal governments to review and update 

individual address information or block-by-block address counts from the 

MAF and associated geographic information in the TIGER® database just 

prior to the decennial. The goal of LUCA is to improve the completeness 

and accuracy of address information. This research project’s objective is 

to determine the best way to modify and improve LUCA procedures to 

ensure compatibility with continual updating of address information 

throughout the decade. The project will also determine whether it is 

necessary for local and tribal governments to actively participate in LUCA, 

a once-a-decade operation, if they have been submitting addresses and 

mapping data continuously throughout the decade as part of the GSS 

Initiative.

Administrative records are a growing source of information on individuals 

and households. For purposes of the decennial census, the Bureau is 

considering administrative records from government agencies, including 

tax data and Medicare records, as well as commercial sources to identify 

persons associated with a particular household address.11

For 2020, in its first attempt to estimate potential costs of various design 

alternatives for the 2020 Census, the Bureau estimated that by expanding 

the use of administrative records it could save up to $2 billion by reducing 

the workload for several operations, including NRFU, address building, 

and quality assurance.

During the 

2010 Census, the Bureau made limited use of administrative records. For 

example, the Bureau used USPS files to update its address list, and 

federal agency records (such as those from the Department of Defense) 

were used to count military and federal civilian employees stationed 

outside of the United States.

12

 

11The Bureau’s access to and use of administrative records is governed by agencyspecific statutes. For example, the Bureau has access to tax data under 26 U.S.C. 

§ 6103(j)(1) “for the purpose of, but only to the extent necessary in, the structuring of 

censuses ... and conducting related statistical activities.” 

Depending on the results of the research and 

testing projects, Bureau officials plan to build a composite of quality 

administrative records from various sources (i.e., federal agencies, state 

and local governments, and commercial sources) that it can use to 

reduce or replace costly field work. Thus, using administrative records 

12The amount of and quality of administrative records the Bureau is able to collect will 

impact the amount of cost savings the Bureau is able to realize.

Administrative Records
 

Page 14 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

could allow the Bureau to reduce the scale of its NRFU operation and 

reduce the need for field office space and staff. The 2012 research and 

testing projects are also focused on identifying the best available 

administrative records to use for address frame building. Administrative 

data from other sources would be combined with USPS data, thus 

allowing the Bureau to continuously update its MAF throughout the 

decade. Finally, administrative records could reduce the cost of quality 

control, according to Bureau officials. In order to ensure the accuracy of 

the field work conducted during census field operations, such as NRFU, 

the Bureau sends quality control staff into the field to verify the work 

completed by a random sample of enumerators. Bureau officials are 

determining for 2020 whether administrative records can be used as a 

quality control check, rather than sending staff into the field.

There are nine research and testing projects that will inform the Bureau’s 

decision making on the extent to which the Bureau can expand the use of 

administrative records in order to reduce costs. These research and 

testing efforts are focused on determining whether the quality of 

administrative records is sufficient to be used for this purpose. Initial 

testing is to be completed and decisions on these matters are to be made 

by September 2014. Of the nine, there are two primary administrative 

records research projects. They are tasked with answering the following 

research questions:

• How can the Bureau best develop and maintain an independent 

collection of administrative records and assess the quality of those 

records (best sources and methods)?

• How can the Bureau leverage administrative records (including 

commercial files) to significantly reduce decennial census cost while 

maintaining quality?

The objective of one of these projects is to acquire, process, and analyze 

administrative records from federal, state, and commercial sources to 

assess their utility for the 2020 Census. The other project will research 

and test methods to enhance NRFU operations with administrative 

records, such as replacing phone or in-person collected data with 

administrative data.
 

Page 15 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Bureau officials are aware that the changes they want to make to the 

decennial census come with many risks. The Bureau has identified and 

prioritized from high to low both program-level and project-level risks. 

According to the Bureau, program-level risks span the entire 2020 

research and testing phase and if not managed properly could jeopardize 

the phase’s goals and objectives. In contrast, project-level risks pertain to 

the successful completion of projects. In accordance with best risk 

management practices,13

• Timely research and testing results: The 2020 research and testing 

strategy involves “many small field tests to research design 

alternatives with an accelerated, agile, and informed decision-making 

process for incorporating changes to the 2020 Census design.” 

According to the Bureau, if the research and testing results are late, 

then decisions will not be made on time and the program may not be 

ready to move out of the research and testing phase on schedule. 

According to the Bureau’s 2020 Census Risk Management Mitigation 

Plans, officials have begun implementing a mitigation strategy for this 

risk, including documenting clear roles and responsibilities and 

communicating them to staff; establishing a schedule that contains 

decision milestones and tracking interdependencies of research 

results and testing projects; and reviewing ongoing project status 

including updates on dependencies, risks, and metrics.

the Bureau has identified and drafted mitigation 

plans for all of the 14 program-level risks it has identified. In May 2012 the 

Bureau designated two of the 14 program-level risks as high risk:

• Significant budget cuts: The Bureau reported that if its funding for 

2020 Census planning is significantly reduced for fiscal year 2013, 

key projects will have to be delayed and as a result the Bureau could 

have major technical and operational difficulties making preliminary 

design decisions. According to Bureau documents, to mitigate this 

risk, Bureau officials have briefed staff from House of Representatives 

Subcommittee for Commerce, Justice, Science and Related 

Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, and the Office of 

Management and Budget on the implications of reduced funding and 

plan to brief oversight committee staff. In addition, Bureau officials 

 

13Broadly defined, risk management is a strategic process for helping policymakers make 

decisions about assessing risk, allocating finite resources, and taking actions under 

conditions of uncertainty. 

The Bureau Has Identified 

2020 Census ProgramLevel and Project-Level 

Risks but Has Not 

Developed Project-Level 

Mitigation and 

Contingency Plans
 

Page 16 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

reported they have analyzed budgetary needs for fiscal year 2013 and 

prioritized projects to manage limited resources.

Related to these risks, a June 2012 congressional hearing held by the 

Joint Economic Committee discussed the impact of eliminating or 

reducing funding to the ACS. According to Bureau officials, such action 

would have a significant impact on the 2020 Census research and testing 

program because ACS is one of its testing platforms. This risk is not listed 

as a program-level risk, or part of the current risk mitigation plans, but 

Bureau managers told us they are strategizing on what they will do if ACS 

is not funded and will update the risk mitigation plan accordingly.

The Bureau has identified lack of support from external stakeholders as a 

medium program-level risk. Bureau officials are concerned that if external 

stakeholders, such as Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, 

and the National Academy of Sciences, do not support research on 

alternative design options, then the research and testing agenda will have 

to be redesigned. To manage this risk, Bureau officials have 

communicated the alternative design options to a wide range of external 

stakeholders, but are concerned that support may diminish as time 

passes and stakeholders change. To mitigate this risk, the Bureau is 

engaging external stakeholders in communications regarding 2020 

research and testing efforts and seeking feedback on Bureau plans. 

According to Bureau documents, the Bureau has met with external 

stakeholders, including congressional staff on its House of 

Representatives and Senate oversight committees, to discuss 2020 

Census planning, and is working on a strategy for keeping stakeholders 

informed as plans progress.

Unlike the program-level risks, risk mitigation and contingency plans have 

not been drafted to address the project-specific risks. Specifically, each of 

the Bureau’s research and testing projects has its own risk register14

 

14A risk register contains the results of a projects risk analysis and includes risk 

descriptions, probability of occurrence, cost impact, schedule impact, and identifies the 

Bureau official with ownership of the risk. 

that 

identifies and prioritizes the risks associated with that project, but no risk 

mitigation or contingency plans have been developed for these projectlevel risks. Several risks appear in multiple project team risk registers, 

including tight time frames and accurate cost information. For example, 

one Internet-related project listed that there is a risk that if tests are not 
 

Page 17 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

timed properly, and if time frames are too tight then they may not be able 

to apply what they have learned from one test to the next. Similarly, one 

of the administrative records project teams was concerned that one year 

to integrate data, build a model, and conduct adequate analysis of 

administrative records was “not realistic.” In another example concerning 

cost data, two teams stated that without accurate cost data at the project 

level, research results will not be sufficient to inform the design of the 

2020 Census.

Project teams also identified project-level risks directly related to the use 

of administrative records in place of data collected by enumerators during 

field visits. Among these risks is access to administrative records to build 

a high quality compilation of administrative records for each household 

across the country. To accomplish this task, the Bureau needs timely 

access to data collected by the federal government and, as previously 

mentioned, is currently compiling administrative records from various 

federal agencies including the Departments of Housing and Urban 

Development and Health and Human Services. However, not all agencies 

are authorized to provide their data to the Bureau thus limiting, and in 

some cases preventing, the Bureau’s use of that data. Bureau officials 

provided us with two examples of agency administrative record sources 

that they are not authorized to access: records maintained under the 

Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act and the National Directory of 

New Hires.15 Bureau officials said they would like to have access to these 

and other data sources for statistical purposes in order to further increase 

the number and improve the quality of available administrative records. 

According to Bureau officials, reviewing and determining whether they 

have access to administrative records with every agency is a time 

consuming process and the Bureau would like to have the ability to fully 

access and use agency administrative data, especially since the 

confidentiality of census data are protected by Title 13.16

 

15The Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act protects the privacy of student education 

records including personally identifiable information (name, address, social security 

number, etc.) from those records. The National Directory of New Hires contains wage and 

employment information that is used by state agencies to enforce child support payments. 

To move this 

forward, according to a senior Bureau official, legislation might need to be 

enacted that would compel federal agencies to provide the Bureau with 

access to administrative data for the decennial census. However, the 

1613 U.S.C. § 9. 
 

Page 18 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

enactment of such legislation is likely to be a time consuming process 

that raises serious policy concerns including whether the Bureau has 

made a sufficiently strong case that it needs access to all federally 

collected data and the resulting impact on personal privacy protections.

According to Bureau officials, the project teams did not submit risk 

mitigation and contingency plans for the project-level risks as required at 

the 90-day checkpoint because after reviewing all of the project-level risk 

registers the project leaders first wanted to unduplicate similar risks 

across projects in order to prevent redundancies. Bureau officials were 

not able to provide a date for when risk mitigation and contingency plans 

would be available. However, they stated they are committed to 

managing risk in order to avoid the missteps encountered in 2010 when

the Bureau was on our high-risk list due to weaknesses in managing IT, 

operational planning, and cost estimating.17 In our prior work, we reported 

that risk mitigation involves identifying, analyzing, prioritizing, and 

documenting risks, and ideally more than one alternative should be 

assessed.18 The Department of Commerce’s Inspector General has 

recommended that risk management activities begin from the outset of 

the current decennial census life cycle, rather than just before field 

operations. Without mitigation plans the 2020 Census planning team may 

not be able to fully manage risks associated with these projects.

The Bureau did not develop cost estimates for any of its 2020 research 

and testing projects by the 90-day checkpoint as required in guidance 

provided to project teams. The importance of reliable cost estimates is 

underscored by the Bureau’s experience leading up to the 2010 Census, 

where we found that the Bureau’s cost estimates lacked detailed 

documentation on data sources and significant assumptions and was not 

comprehensive because it did not include all costs.19

 

17GAO, Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation Program 

Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census, 

Partly as a result, 

some operations had substantial variances between their initial cost 

GAO-08-550T (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5, 2008).

18GAO, 2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon, GAO-04-37

(Washington, D.C.: Jan. 15, 2004).

19GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the Credibility and 

Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census, GAO-08-554 (Washington, D.C.: 

Jun. 16, 2008).

Project-Level Cost 

Estimates Have Not Been 

Developed
 

Page 19 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

estimates and their actual costs. For example, the 2010 address 

canvassing operation cost $88 million more than the original estimate of 

$356 million, an overrun of about 25 percent; and the Bureau’s 2010 

NRFU operation cost $1.6 billion, about $660 million, or 29 percent, less 

than the Bureau initially estimated.

According to 2020 Census planning documents, at the 90-day checkpoint 

project teams were to: (1) prepare and submit cost estimate requests 

needed for the project; (2) document estimates for completing the work 

for the project; (3) identify and document funds needed for additional 

resources and requirements, and (4) prepare and submit requests for 

additional funds. According to a senior Bureau official, cost estimates 

have not yet been completed because more work needs to be done to 

determine project costs and they are in the process of formulating cost 

estimates for each project.

According to our cost estimate guide,20 a cost estimate provides an 

assessment of the costs most likely to be incurred and should include the 

requirements, resources, and tasks that must be accomplished. As the 

Bureau moves forward with its 2020 research and testing program, 

project cost estimates will allow the Bureau to plan for the resources 

required to conduct necessary field testing, ensure there are sufficient 

funds, and adjust testing accordingly. In addition, the Bureau could use 

these cost estimates to help determine how budget cuts might hinder the 

census research and testing program’s progress or effectiveness. Thus, if 

the Bureau does not develop cost estimates in a timely manner it will be 

difficult for the Bureau to ensure that resources are adequate to support 

research and testing projects.

 

20GAO, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and 

Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP (Washington D.C.: Mar. 2, 2009).
 

Page 20 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

The Bureau’s early research and testing is currently refining the project 

plans associated with the14 projects related to the Internet, administrative 

records, and targeted address canvassing. Each of the research and 

testing projects has a set of required deliverables due 30, 60, 90, and 120 

days after project kickoff. We determined that each project team had 

provided the 120-day required deliverables on schedule to Bureau 

managers in June 2012. The research and testing documents required by 

the 2020 Census planning team and delivered by the 14 project teams 

describe management and technical plans for each project, and include a 

team charter, project plan, resources, preliminary schedule, and field 

tests. These documents are important because they serve as the 

baseline for each of the research and testing projects.

However, not all resource requirements were documented. For example, 

some project teams did not fully document the types of skills needed, or 

perform a skills gap assessment to determine the resources needed to 

carry out their respective projects as required in the Bureau’s planning 

template (the template lays out in detail what is to be included in the 

deliverables). Bureau officials plan to use this skills information to allocate 

staff to ensure teams have the skills necessary to complete their projects. 

While 11 project teams provided all the required information, 2 project 

teams conducting research on issues that will inform decisions on 

targeted address canvassing and expanded use of administrative 

records, respectively, did not provide documentation that a skills gap 

analysis was conducted and another project researching expanded use of 

administrative records did not provide the necessary skill sets.21

We also found incomplete performance metric documentation for several 

projects. According to Bureau guidance, project teams were to provide 

performance metrics (including the methodology for monitoring and 

evaluating project performance), as well as exit criteria for determining 

each project’s final outcome. However, the “Enhancing Demographic 

According to Bureau officials, they are working to document these skills 

sets, as well as any gaps. Completing this analysis is important to 

ensuring sufficient resources are available for conducting the research 

and testing projects.

 

21The LUCA Program Improvement and Supplementing and Supporting NRFU with 

Administrative Records project teams did not provide documentation that a skills gap 

analysis was conducted. The Enhancing Demographic Analysis project team did not 

provide the necessary skill sets.

Research and Testing 

Project Plans Were 

Delivered on 

Schedule, but Not All 

Project-Level 

Resources and 

Performance Metrics 

Have Been Identified
 

Page 21 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Analysis” team that is researching the use of administrative records to 

assess the accuracy of census counts at the national level did not provide 

any of the required performance metrics, while six teams22 failed to 

include performance metrics that could be used to monitor research and 

testing progress. According to Bureau officials, not all teams followed the 

project templates, and those teams have been asked to adhere to the 

requirements and provide all necessary information. Project performance 

metrics are a key element of effective project planning. As we have noted 

in prior work on project planning, measurable performance goals should 

be identified and performance data should be gathered to determine 

progress and whether desired outcomes have been achieved.23 Absent 

such metrics, the Bureau does not have the assurance that it will be able 

to avoid potential slips in the research and testing schedule, or certainty 

as to whether project outcomes will be adequate for making decisions.

Just over 7 years remain until Census Day 2020. While this might seem 

like an ample amount of time to shore up the Bureau’s planning process 

and take steps to control costs, past experience has shown that the chain 

of interrelated preparations that need to occur at specific times and in the 

right sequence leave little room for delay or missteps. According to the 

Bureau, if 2010 operations are repeated in 2020, continued growth in 

population size and complexity will likely lead to an unsustainable 

increase in census cost. Further, traditional enumeration methods may no 

longer effectively produce a high quality census. To contain costs and 

maintain quality, bold innovations in both planning for and conducting the 

2020 Census will be required.

The early research and testing phase represents a critical stage in 

preparing for the 2020 Census. At this time Bureau management is 

shaping the next decennial census as it determines what new operations 

will be a part of the 2020 Census design, which operations need to be 

revised, what risks remain, and how those risks will be mitigated. We 

have highlighted some of the cost savings that can be attained through 

three new operational changes being considered—the use of the Internet 

 

22The six project teams were: Master Address File (MAF) Error Model, Independent MAF 

Quality Assessment, LUCA Program Improvement, Workload Management, Matching 

Process Improvement, and Contact Frame.

23GAO-04-37. 

Conclusion 
 

Page 22 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

as a self-response option, replacing enumerator collected data with 

administrative records, and targeting only certain addresses for field 

verification.

However, these innovations also come with risks that need to be 

managed. Specifically, while the Bureau has identified project-level risks 

for the 14 projects we reviewed, it has not developed risk mitigation plans 

for them. Given the number of changes the Bureau would like to make for 

2020 it is imperative that risks are sufficiently managed and that 

mitigation plans be in place. For example, the Bureau needs to manage 

the risk for accessing federally collected administrative data that it will use 

for the 2020 Census. While it currently has access to some federally 

collected data, the Bureau would like access to all federally collected 

data, which according to the Bureau would require a statutory change. 

However, such a change raises serious policy concerns including the 

impact on personal privacy protections, and most likely would be a time 

consuming process. Therefore, it is imperative that risk mitigation and 

contingency plans be in place if the Bureau is unable to successfully gain 

access to all federally collected data. Other areas that need attention 

include ensuring that all research and testing projects have reliable cost 

estimates, so as to avoid research and funding shortfalls, that 

performance metrics are identified to ensure project goals are monitored 

and met, and that skills are identified to ensure the selection and 

assignment of appropriate staff to each project.

We recommend that the Acting Secretary of Commerce require the Under 

Secretary for Economic Affairs who oversees the Economics and 

Statistics Administration, as well as the Acting Director of the U.S. 

Census Bureau, to take the following three actions to improve the 

Bureau’s Research and Testing for the 2020 Census, and thus better 

position the Bureau to carry out a cost-effective decennial census:

• Develop risk mitigation and contingency plans for all projects to 

ensure that risks are adequately managed to minimize their effect on 

the project. 

• Develop cost estimates for each project.

• Ensure documentation for projects are complete, including specifying 

the performance metrics that will be the basis for determining that 

each of the projects has completed its work and identifying skills 

Recommendations for 

Executive Action
 

Page 23 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

needed to inform the selection and assignment of appropriate staff to 

each research project.

The Acting Secretary of Commerce provided written comments on a draft 

of this report on October 22, 2012. The comments are reprinted in 

appendix IV. The Department of Commerce agreed with the assessments 

and recommendations of the report. In addition, the Acting Secretary of 

Commerce provided a technical comment and suggestion where 

additional context might be needed, and we revised the report to reflect 

this comment.

The Bureau in its comments stated that our report accurately represented 

the extensive work that has been completed during the early research 

and testing phase for the 2020 Census. To address our concerns, the 

Bureau noted that it is now focusing on managing risks at the project level 

and will begin obtaining more specific cost estimation details for each 

project. The Bureau also agrees with our recommendations to ensure that 

performance metrics and skill sets are identified for all projects and 

teams. Finally, the Bureau stated that these efforts are either already 

underway or are planned as a major focus during fiscal year 2013.

As arranged with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents 

of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days after the 

date of this report. At that time, we will send copies of this report to the 

Acting Secretary of Commerce, the Under Secretary of Economic Affairs, 

the Acting Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, and interested 

congressional committees. The report also is available at no charge on 

the GAO website at http://www.gao.gov. 

Agency Comments 

and Our Evaluation
 

Page 24 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

If you have any questions on matters discussed in this report, please 

contact me at (202) 512-2757 or by e-mail at goldenkoffr@gao.gov. 

Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public 

Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. Key contributors to 

this report are located in appendix V.

Robert Goldenkoff

Director

Strategic Issues
 

Page 25 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

List of Requesters

The Honorable Thomas R. Carper

Chairman

The Honorable Scott Brown

Ranking Member

Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government 

 Information, Federal Services, and International Security

Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

United States Senate

The Honorable Danny K. Davis

Ranking Member

Subcommittee on Health Care, District of Columbia, Census,

 and the National Archives

Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

House of Representatives
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 26 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

This report evaluates the U.S. Census Bureau’s (Bureau) efforts to 

improve the cost-effectiveness of the enumeration, paying particular 

attention to the following three key efforts that past Bureau research has 

shown could result in substantial cost savings: (1) leveraging the Internet 

to increase self-response; (2) improving how the Bureau builds its 

address and mapping databases, including a possible move to targeted 

address canvassing, and use of private-sector geographic data; and (3) 

using administrative records, such as tax data, to reduce nonresponse 

follow-up costs. To meet our objectives of identifying what opportunities 

and risks, if any, the Bureau might need to consider for these efforts 

going forward, and examining to what extent these three efforts are on 

track with respect to scheduling, resources, and other performance 

metrics, we reviewed Bureau documents pertaining to the early planning 

of the 2020 Census. These generally consisted of the Bureau’s 

operational plans, strategic framework documents, strategies and 

planning memorandums, timelines, and benchmarks. Many of these 

documents were considered draft, but Bureau officials said they were 

sufficiently developed for purposes of our review. To describe the 

Bureau’s efforts to use private-sector firms to assist with its address and 

mapping needs, we spoke to agency officials and reviewed the Bureau’s 

current mapping and address contracts and its request for information to 

solicit input from private-sector firms. We interviewed Bureau officials 

responsible for the early planning of the 2020 Census and inquired about

their process for designing their research and testing program, as well as 

opportunities and risks presented by these three key efforts.

We reviewed our prior reports on and other reports on leading practices 

to identify gaps in the Bureau’s research and testing efforts as it relates to 

schedule, resources, and performance metrics. We also reviewed reports 

from and spoke to knowledgeable stakeholders, such as officials at the 

National Academy of Sciences to determine opportunities and risks

related to the Internet, administrative records, and the address and 

mapping databases. In addition, we spoke with Bureau officials and 

reviewed our prior work to identify obstacles the Bureau may need to 

address moving forward; for example, legal barriers to the Bureau’s 

access to administrative records.

To assess the Bureau’s progress in meeting its stated goals for the 

research and testing program, we evaluated whether each of the 14 

research projects the Bureau initiated in 2012 had provided the required 

deliverables: the 120 day project plan, the project schedule, the project 

charter, and the project risk register. We also performed a content 

analysis of Bureau planning documents. For this analysis we examined 

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology 
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 27 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

the deliverables for each of the 14 research projects. We developed a 

data collection instrument to record the presence or absence of 11 pieces 

of information, or elements, in the deliverables for each project. The 11 

elements were identified through a review of the Bureau’s project plan 

template which outlines information that each project was expected to 

report by the end of the 120-day initiation phase. A coding dictionary was 

created to provide a uniform set of coding criteria for each element coded. 

Each element could be coded as present, partially present, or absent. 

During the coding process, two analysts independently coded documents 

for each project using the coding dictionary as a guide. In the next phase, 

the two coders met to reconcile any discrepancies between their coding 

decisions and then made a final determination for that element. In cases 

of disagreement, the engagement methodologist was consulted as a 

tiebreaker. Following the coding process, the team analyzed the number 

of present and absent elements to identify patterns for each element 

across the 14 projects, as well as the completeness of documentation for 

each project.

This engagement did not examine the Bureau’s information technology

policies, procedures, and information security in depth because our 

information technology team is working on two engagements that cover 

these issues.
Appendix II: Fourteen Research Projects Will 

Inform Design Decisions on Key Efforts (Text 

for Interactive Figure 3)

Page 28 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Table 1: Project Teams Involved in Development of Internet Response Option

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau information.

Table 2: Project Teams Contributing to Decision to Use Administrative Records 

Project team Objectives in administrative records development

Alternative Administrative Records 

Composite

Acquire, process, and analyze administrative records from federal, state, and commercial 

sources to assess their utility for the 2020 Census

Supplementing and Supporting 

Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) with 

Administrative Records

Research and test methods to replace or supplement NRFU data collected in person with 

administrative data

Local Update of Census Addresses 

(LUCA) Program Improvement

Explore the use of administrative records to validate new addresses

Coding, Editing and Imputation Study Research the use of administrative records as a source to obtain missing household and 

address information 

Enhancing Demographic Analysis Research the use of administrative records to assess the accuracy of Census counts at 

the national level

Improving Quality Control Examine the use of administrative records to supplement or replace field work in quality 

control operations 

Privacy and Confidentiality Study Identify public perceptions related to the use of administrative records for enumeration 

purposes

Matching Process Improvement Examine methods to ensure that the Census Bureau can accurately match administrative 

records to individuals and housing units

Contact Frame Acquire and process administrative records for the purpose of using them for alternate 

contact information

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau information.

Appendix II: Fourteen Research Projects Will 

Inform Design Decisions on Key Efforts (Text 

for Interactive Figure 3)

Project team Objectives in Internet development

Optimizing Self-Response Develop requirements for the Internet response option and coordinate the relationship 

between different response modes (i.e., Internet, paper, telephone)

Questionnaire Content, Design, and Mode 

Study

Determine the number of languages that will be used in the Internet response option 

Workload Management Develop the infrastructure that will support the Internet response option

Coding, Editing and Imputation Study Help determine what prompts to include in an Internet response option to improve data 

quality and respondents’ ease of use

Privacy and Confidentiality Study Identify public perception and concerns about responding to the Census via the Internet

Contact Frame Provide alternate contact methods, such as e-mail addresses
Appendix II: Fourteen Research Projects Will 

Inform Design Decisions on Key Efforts (Text 

for Interactive Figure 3)

Page 29 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Table 3: Project Teams Contributing to Decision to Implement Targeted Address Canvassing

Project team Objectives in targeted address canvassing development

Master Address File (MAF) Error Model Develop a statistical model of errors (e.g., missing or duplicate addresses) in the MAF 

Independent MAF Quality Assessment Use the MAF Error Model to assess the quality of the MAF and determine whether 

targeted address canvassing would be effective, and, if so, where it should be performed

Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) 

Program Improvement

Examine what modifications to the Bureau’s existing LUCA program will be required to 

support targeted address canvassing

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau information.
Appendix III: Census Mapping and Address 

Contracts

Page 30 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Contractor Description of services Contract value

Acquis Inc. Develop, implement, and support a system which allows the Census Bureau 

(Bureau) to update its Master Address File (MAF) with TIGER® (Topologically 

Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing) data, the U.S. mapping data, as 

the data is received. 

$1,361,780

ASRC Research and 

Technology Solutions

Analyze mapping data as it is provided by state and local governments and other 

agencies, and upload changes into TIGER®. 

$9,998,400

Caliper Corporation Customize and maintain software so that over 40,000 state, local, and tribal 

governments can update and verify the Bureau’s address and mapping databases. 

$2,049,675

ERDAS, Inc. Supply digital map files and digital aerial imagery to maintain and update the MAF/

TIGER® database. 

$26,015

ESRI, Inc.

a

Customize, install, and provide technical support for software to process and edit 

files to outline geographic areas, and support mapping applications, including the 

use of handheld computers to collect and edit data.

$1,091,468

Group 1 Software, Inc. Provide software to match addresses from surveys and other agencies to the MAF/

TIGER® database.

$14,016

Gunnison Consulting Group, 

Inc.

a

Develop and maintain software which automatically places text on Bureau maps so 

all map features are clearly identified. 

$2,103,727

Oracle America, Inc. Update and consolidate the infrastructure, servers and database, of the MAF/

TIGER® system.

$9,973,265

Sabre Systems, Inc. Provide services for the modernization of the Bureau’s MAF/TIGER® system, 

including expansion, design, programming, operation and maintenance of the 

infrastructure supporting the MAF/ TIGER® system.

$62,927,907

Total $89,546,253 

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau information. 

a

Appendix III: Census Mapping and Address 

Contracts 

Cost of the most recent purchase.
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department 

of Commerce

Page 31 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Appendix IV: Comments from the 

Department of Commerce
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department 

of Commerce

Page 32 GAO-13-53 2020 Census
Appendix V: GAO Contact and Staff 

Acknowledgments

Page 33 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

Robert Goldenkoff, (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov

Other key contributors to this report include Lisa Pearson, Assistant 

Director; David Bobruff; Robert Gebhart; Richard Hung; Kirsten B. 

Lauber; Andrea Levine; and Timothy Wexler. 

Appendix V: GAO Contact and Staff 

Acknowledgments 

GAO Contact

Staff 

Acknowledgments 
Related GAO Products

Page 34 GAO-13-53 2020 Census

2020 Census: Sustaining Current Reform Efforts Will Be Key to a More 

Cost-Effective Enumeration. GAO-12-905T. Washington, D.C.: July 18, 

2012.

2020 Census: Additional Steps Are Needed to Build on Early Planning.

GAO-12-626. Washington, D.C.: May 17, 2012.

Decennial Census: Additional Actions Could Improve the Census

Bureau’s Ability to Control Costs for the 2020 Census. GAO-12-80. 

Washington, D.C.: January 24, 2012.

2010 Census: Preliminary Lessons Learned Highlight the Need for

Fundamental Reforms. GAO-11-496T. Washington, D.C.: April 6, 2011.

2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as

Planned, but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental

Reforms. GAO-11-193. Washington, D.C.: December 14, 2010.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for 

Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs. GAO-09-3SP. 

Washington D.C.: March 2, 2009.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the 

Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census. 

GAO-08-554. Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2008.

Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation 

Program Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census. GAO-08-550T. 

Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2008.

2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon.

GAO-04-37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.

High-Risk Series: Quick Reference Guide. GAO/HR-97-2. Washington,

D.C.: February 1997.

Related GAO Products

(450946)
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