CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 10. **NATIONAL IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS...............................................................................10­i**

**10.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. ...........................................................................**  **10­1**

**10.2 NATIONAL**  **E NERGY**  **SAVINGS**

**................................................................................... 10­1** 

**10.2.1 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Definition** 

**.................................................................. 10­1** 

**10.2.2 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Inputs.........................................................................**  **10­2**

**10.2.2.1 Annual**  **U nit**  **Energy Consumption....................................................**  **10­3**

**10.2.2.2 Shipments..........................................................................................**  **1 0­9** 

**10.2.2.3 Equipment**  **S tock...............................................................................**  **10­9**

**10.2.2.4 National**  **A nnual**  **Energy Consumption.............................................**  **10­9**

**10.2.2.5 Site­to­Source**  **C onversion**  **Factor................................................... 10­10** 

**10.3 NET**  **P RESENT**  **VALUE**

**................................................................................................ 10­11** 

**10.3.1 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Definition** 

**........................................................................... 10­11** 

**10.3.2 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Inputs** 

**................................................................................. 10­12** 

**10.3.2.1 Total**  **A nnual**  **Installed Cost** 

**............................................................ 10­12** 

**10.3.2.2 Total**  **A nnual**  **Operating Cost**  **Savings**

**............................................ 10­13** 

**10.3.2.3 Discount**  **F actor** 

**............................................................................... 10­15** 

**10.3.2.4 Present**  **V alue**  **of Costs** 

**.................................................................... 10­16** 

**10.3.2.5 Present**  **V alue**  **of Savings** 

**................................................................ 10­16** 

**10.4 NATIONAL**  **E NERGY**  **SAVINGS AND**  **NET PRESENT**  **VALUE RESULTS** 

**........... 10­16** 

**10.4.1 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings and**  **Net Present**  **Value Input**  **Summary................... 10­17** 

**10.4.2 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Results.....................................................................**  **10­17**

**10.4.3 Annual**  **C osts**  **and Savings** 

**............................................................................... 10­18** 

**10.4.4 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Results................................................................................**  **10­19**

**REFERENCES**

**........................................................................................................................ 10­22** 

LIST O F TABLES

**Table 1**  **0.2.1**

**Table 10.2.2** 

**Table 10.2.3**  **National En**  **ergy Saving**  **Inputs**

**.......................................................................... 10­3** 

**Risk Premiums**  **by Risk**  **Class (j)**  **in the**  **NEMS Commercial**  **Model**

**................. 10­4** 

**Forecasted Shipment­Weighted**  **Market Shares**  **by Efficiency**  **Level, Base** 

**Case.................................................................................................................... 10­7** 

**Table 1**  **0.2.4 Average**  **A nnual**  **Energy Consumption**  **per Linear**  **Foot by**  **Efficiency**

**Level**

**.................................................................................................................. 10­7** 

**Table 1**  **0.2.5**

**Table 10.2.6**  **Shipment­Weighted A**  **verage Annual**  **Energy Consumption**  **per Linear** 

**Foot by**  **Efficiency Level** 

**................................................................................... 10­8** 

**Site­to­Source Conversion**  **Factors**

**.................................................................. 10­11** 

**Table 1**  **0.3.1**

**Table 10.3.2** 

**Table 10.3.3** 

**Table 10.3.4** 

**Table 10.3.5**  **Net P**  **resent Value**  **Inputs**

**................................................................................. 10­12** 

**Average Total**  **Installed Cost**  **per Linear**  **Foot by**  **Efficiency Level.................**  **10­13**

**Shipment­Weighted Average**  **Total Installed**  **Cost per**  **Linear Foot**  **by**

**Efficiency Level...............................................................................................**  **10­13**

**Average Annual**  **Repair Cost**  **per Linear**  **Foot (2006$)....................................**  **10­14**

**Average Annual**  **Maintenance Cost**  **per Linear**  **Foot by**  **Efficiency Level** 

**(2006$)**

**............................................................................................................. 10­15** 

**10­i Table**  **10.3.6 Shipment­Weighted**  **Average Annual**  **Maintenance Cost**  **per Linear**  **Foot**

**by Ef**  **ficiency Level**  **(2006$)**

**............................................................................ 10­15** 

**Table 10.4.1**  **NES and**  **NPV Inputs** 

**....................................................................................... 10­17** 

**Table 10.4.2**  **Cumulative National**  **Energy Savings**  **for Commercial**  **Refrigeration**

**Equipment (**  **2012­2042) (quads)** 

**...................................................................... 10­18** 

**Table 10.4.3**  **Cumulative NPV**  **Results Based**  **on a**  **Seven­Percent Discount**  **Rate**

**(Billion 2**  **006$)................................................................................................. 10­20** 

**Table 10.4.4**  **Cumulative NPV**  **Results based**  **on a**  **Three­Percent Discount**  **Rate**

**(Billion 2**  **006$)................................................................................................. 10­21** 

LIST O F FIGURES

**Figure 1**  **0.4.1 National**  **Annual Costs**  **and Savings**  **for Efficiency**  **Level 4** 

**............................ 10­19** 

**10­ii**CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

**This chapter**  **describes the**  **method for**  **estimating the**  **magnitude and**  **net present**  **value**

**(NPV) of**  **future national**  **energy savings**  **(NES) to**  **consumers from**  **possible candidate**  **energy**

**efficiency standards**  **levels for**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment (CRE).**  **Results of**  **the**

**national impact**  **analysis (NIA)**  **described here**  **include national**  **energy consumption**  **and savings,** 

**monetary value**  **of energy**  **savings to**  **the Nation**  **as a**  **result of**  **standards, increased**  **total installed** 

**costs to**  **the Nation**  **as a**  **result of**  **standards, and**  **the net**  **present value**  **of energy**  **savings (the** 

**difference between**  **the present**  **monetary values**  **of energy**  **savings and**  **increased total**  **installed**

**costs).**

**The U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy (DOE)**  **determined both**  **the NPV**  **and NES**  **for each** 

**candidate standard**  **level it**  **considered for**  **each of**  **the 15**  **equipment classes**  **of CRE**  **it examined.** 

**DOE considered**  **up to**  **eight candidate**  **standard levels**  **for each**  **equipment class.** 

**DOE performed**  **all calculations**  **using a**  **Microsoft Excel**  **spreadsheet, which**  **is accessible** 

**on the**  **Internet at**  **(http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/**

**commercial_products.html). Details**  **and instructions**  **for using**  **the spreadsheet**  **are discussed**  **in**

**Appendix H.**  **A more**  **detailed set**  **of results**  **is available**  **in Appendix**  **I. The**  **important facets**  **of**

**national energy**  **consumption for**  **each equipment**  **class of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment**

**include shipments,**  **stock or**  **inventory, national**  **average electricity**  **consumption, and**  **the site­to** 

**source conversion**  **factor that**  **is used**  **to translate**  **the amount**  **of electricity**  **consumed at**  **the site** 

**where it**  **is used**  **into the**  **amount of**  **energy that**  **must be**  **consumed at**  **the source**  **where that** 

**electricity was**  **produced. Chapter**  **9, Shipments**  **Analysis, provides**  **a detailed**  **description of**  **the**

**shipments analysis**  **that DOE**  **used to**  **forecast future**  **purchases of**  **commercial refrigeration** 

**equipment.**

**DOE was**  **not able**  **to obtain**  **information that**  **quantified how**  **voluntary energy**  **efficiency**

**programs affect**  **equipment efficiencies**  **on a**  **national basis,**  **although voluntary**  **programs may** 

**increase the**  **share of**  **energy efficient**  **equipment prior**  **to the**  **implementation date**  **of any**  **new**

**standards. Consequently,**  **DOE did**  **not explicitly**  **incorporate the**  **impact of**  **market­based**

**initiatives into**  **the shipments**  **forecasts detailed**  **in chapter**  **9.**

The N IA results shown in chapter 10 differ from what is provided in the ANOPR as the

chapter 10 results include the impact of corrections that were made subsequent to the

preparation of the ANOPR.

10.2 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

10.2.1 National Energy Savings Definition

**DOE calculates**  **annual national**  **energy savings**  **as the**  **difference between**  **two scenarios:** 

**a base**  **case (without**  **new standards)**  **and a**  **standards case**  **(with new**  **standards). Positive**  **values**

**10­1 of**  **NES correspond**  **to net**  **energy savings,**  **i.e., national**  **annual energy**  **consumption (AEC)**  **with**

**standards is**  **less than**  **AEC in**  **the base**  **case.**

NESt

= AEC base ­ AEC standard Eq. 10.1

**Cumulative e**  **nergy savings**  **are the**  **sum over**  **a defined**  **time period**  **from the** 

**implementation of**  **a standard**  **forward (from**  **2012 to**  **2042) of**  **the annual**  **national energy**  **savings.**

NES

cum = ∑

t NES

t Eq. 10.2

**DOE c**  **alculated the**  **AEC by**  **multiplying the**  **number or**  **stock of**  **commercial refrigeration** 

**equipment (by**  **vintage) by**  **the unit**  **energy consumption**  **(also by**  **vintage) as**  **shown by**  **the**

**following equation:** 

AEC

= STOCK V **x** UEC V **x** src_conv t Eq. 10.3

**For t**  **he above**  **expressions, DOE**  **defined the**  **following quantities:** 

AEC

**= Annual**  **national energy**  **consumption each**  **year in**  **quadrillion British**  **thermal units** 

**(quads), s**  **ummed over**  **vintages of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment stock,**  STOCK V

**,** NES

**= Annual**  **national energy**  **savings (in**  **quads),**

STOCK V **= Stock**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration equipment**  **(millions of**  **units) of**  **vintage**

V **surviving in**  **the year**  **for which**  **DOE calculated**  **annual energy**  **consumption.**

**Vintages r**  **ange from**  **1 to**  **approximately 10**  **years, a**  **function of**  **an assumed**  **10­year**

**lifetime of**  **the equipment.** 

UEC V **= Annual**  **unit energy**  **consumption in**  **kilowatt hours**  **(kWh),**

src_conv t **= Time­dependent**  **conversion factor**  **to convert**  **from site**  **energy (kWh)**  **to**

**source energy**  **(quads) (Btu/kWh),** 

V

**= Year**  **in which**  **the commercial**  **refrigeration equipment**  **was purchased**  **as a**  **new unit,** 

t **= Year**  **in the**  **forecast (e.g.,**  **2012 to**  **2042).**

**The s**  **tock of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment is**  **dependent on**  **annual shipments**  **and**

**the lifetime**  **of the**  **equipment. DOE**  **believes that**  **the shipment**  **projections under**  **the standards** 

**cases could**  **be lower**  **than those**  **in the**  **base case**  **projection, because**  **the higher**  **installed costs** 

**would cause**  **some customers**  **to forego**  **new equipment**  **purchases. However,**  **DOE has**  **no**

**information that**  **would allow**  **a calculation**  **of this**  **effect. For**  **the Advance**  **Notice of**  **Proposed**

**Rulemaking (ANOPR),**  **the total**  **shipments projections**  **are the**  **same in**  **both the**  **basecase and** 

**standards cases.** 

10.2.2 National E nergy Savings Inputs

**Table 1**  **0.2.1 lists**  **the inputs**  **for the**  **determination of**  **NES.**

**10­2**Table 10.2.1 National Energy Saving Inputs

**)**

V **)**

**)** Input

**Annual Unit**  **Energy Consumption**  **(** UEC

**Shipments**

**Equipment Stock**  **(** STOCK

**Site­to­Source Conversion**  **Factor (**  src_conv

10.2.2.1 Annual U nit Energy Consumption

**The a**  **nnual unit**  **energy consumption**  **(UEC) is**  **the site**  **energy consumed**  **by a**  **commercial**

**refrigeration unit**  **per year.**  **AEC is**  **directly tied**  **to the**  **efficiency of**  **the unit.**  **Thus, knowing**  **the**

**efficiency of**  **a commercial**  **refrigeration unit**  **determines the**  **corresponding AEC.**  **Because the** 

**equipment classes**  **analyzed represent**  **equipment sold**  **across a**  **range of**  **sizes, DOE’s**  **“unit” in** 

**the NES**  **is actually**  **expressed as**  **a linear**  **foot of**  **equipment in**  **an equipment**  **class and**  **not an** 

**individual unit**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration equipment**  **of a**  **specific size.**  **As described**  **below,**

**DOE determined**  **annual forecasted**  **shipment­weighted average**  **equipment efficiencies**  **that, in** 

**turn, enabled**  **a determination**  **of shipment­weighted**  **annual energy**  **consumption values.** 

**DOE d**  **id not**  **have data**  **on the**  **market shares**  **within each**  **of the**  **equipment classes**  **by**

**efficiency level.**  **DOE used**  **the 2005**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment shipments**  **by**

**equipment class**  **provided by**  **the industry**  **to develop**  **future market**  **shares by**  **equipment class.** 

**DOE used**  **these market**  **shares and**  **the estimates**  **of future**  **shipments for**  **all commercial** 

**refrigeration equipment**  **to develop**  **projections of**  **shipments by**  **equipment class.**  **It then**  **adapted**

**a cost­based**  **method used**  **in the**  **National Energy**  **Modeling System**  **(NEMS) to**  **estimate market** 

**shares within**  **each equipment**  **class by**  **efficiency level.**  **DOE then**  **extrapolated future**  **scenarios**

**of the**  **equipment efficiency**  **both for**  **a base­case**  **(i.e., without**  **new standards)**  **and for**  **various**

**standards­cases (i.e.,**  **with new**  **standards) using**  **the same**  **cost­based method.**  **The difference**  **in**

**equipment efficiency**  **between the**  **base­case and**  **standards­cases was**  **the basis**  **for determining** 

**the reduction**  **in UEC**  **resulting from**  **new standards.** 

**The m**  **arket share**  **for each**  **equipment class**  **by efficiency**  **level is**  **defined as** 

EFF_Level_Share(i,y)

**, for**  **each equipment**  **class, y,**  **at each**  **efficiency level,**  **i. Because**  **the**

**lifetime of**  **each equipment**  **class is**  **presumed to**  **be the**  **same, and**  **because DOE**  **had no** 

**information regarding**  **future changes**  **in market**  **shares between**  **equipment classes,**  **DOE**

**assumed the**  **market share**  **for a**  **particular equipment**  **class to**  **be constant**  **over time.**  **DOE**

**calculated the**  EFF_Level_Share(i,y) **for each**  **efficiency level**  i **using the**  **following formula,** 

**based on**  **the relative**  **annualized cost**  **of each**  **efficiency level.** 

EFF_Level_Share(i,y)

= ∑ m j=1 b j• [((IC(i,y) **x** (r j /(1­(1+r j ) ­n )+OC(i,y)) ­v / (∑ k

i=1 (((IC(i,y) **x** (r j /(1­

(1+r j ) ­n )+OC(i,y)) ­v ] Eq. 10.4

**where**

EFF_Level_Share(i,y)

= **the market**  **share of**  **energy consumption**  **level i**  **for equipment** 

**class y,** 

IC(i, y)

= **installed costs**  **of equipment**  **class y**  **of energy**  **consumption level**  **i. i=1**  **to k,** 

OC(i,y) =annual **operating cost**  **(maintenance, repair**  **and energy**  **cost) of**  **equipment class**  **y of** 

**energy consumption**  **level I,** 

**10­3**r j = **private, risk­adjusted**  **discount rate**  **for risk**  **class j.**  **Derived by**  **adding a**  **“time**

**preference premium”**  **to the**  **risk­free real**  **rate of**  **return in**  **the marketplace**  **(4.39% long** 

**term Treasury**  **bond rate–long­term**  **inflation rate**  **of 2.2%** 

**= 2.19%),** 

b

j = **market share**  **of equipment**  **users with**  **risk class**  **j, j**  **=1 to**  **m,**

v = **risk penalty**  **factor (also**  **known as**  **a measure**  **of market**  **heterogeneity),**

n = **equipment lifetime.** 

**The c**  **omponents for**  IC **and** OC **came from**  **the same**  **inputs as**  **the life­cycle**  **cost analysis** 

**(see chapter**  **8, life­cycle**  **cost and**  **payback period**  **analysis). The**  **annualization factor** 

(r

j /(1­(1+r j ) ­n ) **converts installed**  **cost into**  **its annual**  **equivalent, so**  **that market**  **shares are**  **based**

**on the**  **relative annual**  **costs of**  **each energy**  **consumption level,**  **with (generally)**  **higher annualized** 

**costs of**  **higher energy**  **consumption levels**  **leading to**  **lower relative**  **market shares.**  **This is** 

**consistent with**  **the approaches**  **used in**  **the Energy**  **Information Administration**  **(EIA’s) National** 

**Energy Modeling**  **System 1**  **(NEMS) and**  **in the**  **Canadian Integrated**  **Modeling System**  **(CIMS) 2**  **a**

**. The**  **calibration constants**  **are the**  **private risk­based**  **discount rates**  **by risk**  **class** r j , **taken from**  **the**

**NEMS commercial**  **model as**  **shown in**  **Table 10.2.2** 

, **the default**  **value of**  v **= 10,**  **taken from**  **the**

**CIMS, and**  **the equipment**  **lifetime of**  **10 years.** 

Table 1 0.2.2 Risk Premiums by Risk Class (j) in the NEMS Commercial Model

Percentage of Users in

Class Time P reference

Premium Implied R eal Discount

Rate

**1% 0.0%**  **2.19%**

**2% 13.6%**  **15.79%**

**10% 19.9%**  **22.09%**

**15% 30.9%**  **33.09%**

**20% 55.4%**  **57.59%**

**25% 152.9%**  **155.09%**

**27% 1000.0%**  **1002.19%**

**100%**

**Source: NEMS**  **Commercial Model** 

**Table 10.2.3**  **provides estimated**  **base case**  **market shipment­weighted**  **shares for**  **each of** 

**the 15**  **equipment classes**  **analyzed in**  **this rulemaking.** 

**To pr**  **oject changes**  **in weighted­average**  **efficiency as**  **standards above**  **the base­case** 

**efficiency (Level**  **1) are**  **introduced, DOE**  **assumed that**  **market shares**  **below the**  **minimum**

**permitted efficiency**  **level would**  **be reassigned**  **to the**  **new Level**  **1. For**  **example, if**  **a Level**  **4**

**standard were**  **imposed in**  **2012 on**  **the VOP.RC.M**  **equipment class,**  **then the**  **market shares**  **for**

**Levels 1,**  **2, and**  **3 would**  **be assigned**  **to Level**  **4, which**  **would result**  **in a**  **market share**  **of 66.2%** 

**= (23.2%**  **+15.9% +14.3%**  **+12.8%) from**  **the first**  **four columns**  **of the**  **first row**  **in Table**  **10.2.3)**

**for Level**  **4, beginning**  **in 2012.**  **The market**  **shares for**  **Levels 5­8**  **would not**  **be affected,**  **since**

**the market**  **already has**  **a choice**  **of that**  **equipment with**  **Level 4**  **also available.**  **It was**  **assumed**

**that the**  **standard (efficiency**  **level 4)**  **would not**  **affect the**  **relative attractiveness**  **of equipment** 

**with efficiencies**  **higher than**  **the standard.** 

**a The**  **CIMS Model**  **was originally**  **known as**  **the Canadian**  **Integrated Modeling**  **System, but**  **as the**  **model is**  **now**

**being applied**  **to other**  **countries, the**  **acronym is**  **now used**  **as its**  **proper name.** 

**10­4**As stated earlier, UEC values are tied directly to the efficiency of the equipment.

**For t**  **he annual**  **shipment­weighted efficiency**  **levels specified**  **in the**  **base case**  **and**

**standards case**  **efficiency scenarios,**  **DOE calculated**  **the shipment**  **weighted UEC**  **values shown** 

**in Table**  **10.2.5. For**  **each equipment**  **class, the**  **value shown**  **for a**  **given efficiency**  **level is**  **the**

**shipment­weighted average**  **UEC for**  **each standard**  **level, after**  **taking into**  **account the**  **non**

**availability of**  **equipment at**  **efficiency levels**  **below the**  **minimum standard**  **efficiency level** 

**shown.**

**10­5**Table 10.2.4 provides the UEC values for specific efficiency levels for all equipment classes.

**For t**  **he annual**  **shipment­weighted efficiency**  **levels specified**  **in the**  **base case**  **and**

**standards case**  **efficiency scenarios,**  **DOE calculated**  **the shipment**  **weighted UEC**  **values shown** 

**in Table**  **10.2.5. For**  **each equipment**  **class, the**  **value shown**  **for a**  **given efficiency**  **level is**  **the**

**shipment­weighted average**  **UEC for**  **each standard**  **level, after**  **taking into**  **account the**  **non**

**availability of**  **equipment at**  **efficiency levels**  **below the**  **minimum standard**  **efficiency level** 

**shown.**

**10­6 Table**  **10.2.4 presents**  **the UEC**  **values according**  **to annual**  **electricity use**  **per linear**  **foot**

**per year**  **(kWh/linear foot/year).**  **Electricity use**  **per linear**  **foot is**  **how DOE**  **expressed the**  **annual**

**energy per**  **unit in**  **the NES**  **spreadsheet model.**  **Because projections**  **of grocery**  **refrigeration and** 

**freezer space**  **(expressed in**  **linear feet)**  **are the**  **primary drivers**  **used to**  **estimate future** 

**commercial refrigeration**  **equipment shipments,**  **DOE calculated**  **the national**  **refrigeration**

**equipment energy**  **expense by**  **expressing the**  **per unit**  **annual energy**  **use on**  **a linear­footage** 

**basis.**

Table 1 0.2.3 Shipment­Weighted Market Shares by Efficiency Level, Base­Case

Equipment

Class * Shipment­Weighted Market Shares by Efficiency Level *, **§**

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **23.2% 15.9%**  **14.3% 12.8%**  **10.2% 9.1%**  **7.9% 6.6%** 

VOP.RC.L **17.6% 18.4%**  **18.4% 16.9%**  **16.5% 12.1%**  **0.0% 0.0%** 

VOP.SC.M **14.5% 15.1%**  **15.1% 14.8%**  **13.9% 12.5%**  **9.1% 5.1%** 

VCT.RC.M **15.7% 17.6%**  **17.8% 17.6%**  **17.1% 9.1%**  **5.1% 0.0%** 

VCT.RC.L **17.6% 16.0%**  **14.7% 13.5%**  **11.3% 10.3%**  **9.3% 7.3%** 

VCT.SC.I **12.5% 14.0%**  **15.1% 15.3%**  **14.7% 11.5%**  **10.1% 6.8%** 

VCS.SC.I **11.2% 11.9%**  **12.6% 13.4%**  **13.4% 13.3%**  **13.0% 11.3%** 

SVO.RC.M **20.3% 17.0%**  **15.4% 13.9%**  **12.5% 11.2%**  **9.6% 0.0%** 

SVO.SC.M **13.9% 14.2%**  **14.2% 14.0%**  **13.2% 12.6%**  **10.3% 7.6%** 

SOC.RC.M **16.5% 17.2%**  **17.2% 16.4%**  **15.9% 9.4%**  **7.3% 0.0%** 

HZO.RC.M **24.8% 25.4%**  **25.2% 24.6%**  **0.0% 0.0%**  **0.0% 0.0%** 

HZO.RC.L **18.3% 18.1%**  **17.1% 16.2%**  **15.4% 14.9%**  **0.0% 0.0%** 

HZO.SC.M **12.7% 12.8%**  **13.0% 12.9%**  **12.9% 12.6%**  **12.3% 10.7%** 

HZO.SC.L **12.1% 12.2%**  **12.8% 13.4%**  **13.3% 13.3%**  **11.6% 11.3%** 

HCT.SC.I **17.2% 17.9%**  **18.2% 16.0%**  **15.5% 15.2%**  **0.0% 0.0%** 

***** **Equipment c**  **lass designations**  **consist of**  **a combination**  **(in sequential**  **order separated**  **by periods)**  **of a**  **equipment family**  **code**

**(VOP=vertical o**  **pen, SVO=semivertical**  **open, HZO=horizontal**  **open, VCT=vertical**  **transparent doors,**  **VCS=vertical solid**  **doors,**

**HCT=horizontal t**  **ransparent doors,**  **HCS=horizontal solid**  **doors, or**  **SOC=service over**  **counter), an**  **operating mode**  **code (RC=remote** 

**condensing o**  **r SC=self­contained),**  **and a**  **rating temperature**  **code (M=medium**  **temperature (38°F),**  **L=low temperature**  **(0°F), or**  **I=ice**

**cream t**  **emperature (­15°F)).**  **For example,**  **"VOP.RC.M refers**  **to the**  **"vertical open,**  **remote condensing,**  **medium temperature"**  **equipment**

**class. S**  **ee chapter**  **3, market**  **and technology**  **assessment, for**  **a more**  **detailed explanation**  **of the**  **equipment class**  **terminology**

****** **A v**  **alue of**  **0.0% means**  **that no**  **market share**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **equipment class**  **only**

**had s**  **ix possible**  **efficiency levels,**  **so no**  **market share**  **was allotted**  **to efficiency**  **levels 7**  **and 8.** 

**§ Shares**  **ma y**  **not add**  **to 100%**  **exactly due**  **to rounding.** 

**For the**  **annual shipment­weighted**  **efficiency levels**  **specified in**  **the base**  **case and** 

**standards case**  **efficiency scenarios,**  **DOE calculated**  **the shipment**  **weighted UEC**  **values shown** 

**in Table**  **10.2.5. For**  **each equipment**  **class, the**  **value shown**  **for a**  **given efficiency**  **level is**  **the**

**shipment­weighted average**  **UEC for**  **each standard**  **level, after**  **taking into**  **account the**  **non**

**availability of**  **equipment at**  **efficiency levels**  **below the**  **minimum standard**  **efficiency level** 

**shown.**

**10­7**Table 10.2.4 Unit Energy Consumption by Efficiency Level

Equipment

Class Annual E nergy Consumption per linear foot (kWh/linear foot/year)

Level 1

(Base Case) Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **1,751 1,621**  **1,540 1,459**  **1,297 1,216**  **1,135 1,038** 

VOP.RC.L **3,980 3,787**  **3,547 3,362**  **3,344 3,249**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **3,477 3,103**  **3,038 2,969**  **2,815 2,701**  **2,502 2,250** 

VCT.RC.M **1,007 827**  **785 734**  **701 446**  **358 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **1,985 1,779**  **1,685 1,592**  **1,404 1,311**  **1,217 1,026** 

VCT.SC.I **3,001 2,642**  **2,342 2,227**  **2,144 1,464**  **1,316 1,202** 

VCS.SC.I **1,145 1,049**  **904 795**  **776 744**  **722 700** 

SVO.RC.M **1,278 1,217**  **1,156 1,095**  **1,034 973**  **900 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **2,616 2,339**  **2,320 2,288**  **2,180 2,142**  **1,890 1,796** 

SOC.RC.M **1,483 1,348**  **1,179 1,149**  **1,107 946**  **932 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **229 194**  **151 137**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **1,161 1,119**  **1,049 979**  **909 867**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **850 818**  **703 666**  **651 611**  **595 525** 

HZO.SC.L **2,244 2,210**  **1,973 1,709**  **1,673 1,661**  **1,461 1,449** 

HCT.SC.I **837 694**  **656 374**  **316 294**  **NA NA** 

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **energy use**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **only had**  **six possible** 

**efficiency levels.** 

Table 10.2.5 Shipment­Weighted Average Annual Energy Consumption per Linear Foot

by Efficiency Level

Equipment

Class Shipment­weighted A EC per linear foot (kWh/linear foot/year)

Level 1

(Base Case) Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **1,477 1,446**  **1,414 1,370**  **1,261 1,199**  **1,129 1,038** 

VOP.RC.L **3,569 3,535**  **3,447 3,346**  **3,333 3,249**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **2,944 2,889**  **2,869 2,838**  **2,746 2,661**  **2,489 2,250** 

VCT.RC.M **754 725**  **711 684**  **662 442**  **358 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **1,584 1,547**  **1,515 1,469**  **1,352 1,282**  **1,204 1,026** 

VCT.SC.I **2,151 2,105**  **2,024 1,975**  **1,927 1,432**  **1,309 1,202** 

VCS.SC.I **850 839**  **805 766**  **757 736**  **720 700** 

SVO.RC.M **1,124 1,111**  **1,088 1,056**  **1,015 966**  **900 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **2,237 2,198**  **2,193 2,179**  **2,117 2,091**  **1,883 1,796** 

SOC.RC.M **1,204 1,181**  **1,123 1,108**  **1,079 945**  **932 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **178 169**  **147 137**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **1,024 1,016**  **990 952**  **903 867**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **682 678**  **648 633**  **626 600**  **588 525** 

HZO.SC.L **1,803 1,799**  **1,740 1,641**  **1,622 1,615**  **1,460 1,449** 

HCT.SC.I **545 520**  **506 353**  **313 294**  **NA NA** 

• **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **energy use**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **equipment class**  **only**

**had six**  **possible efficiency**  **levels.**

**10­8**10.2.2.2 Shipments

**DOE f**  **orecasted shipments**  **for the**  **base case**  **and all**  **standards cases**  **(see chapter**  **9,**

**shipments analysis).** 

10.2.2.3 Equipment S tock

**The c**  **ommercial refrigeration**  **equipment stock**  **in a**  **given year**  **is the**  **total linear**  **footage**

**of commercial**  **refrigeration equipment**  **shipped from**  **earlier years**  **which survive**  **in the**  **given**

**year. The**  **NES spreadsheet**  **model keeps**  **track of**  **the total**  **linear footage**  **of commercial** 

**refrigeration units**  **shipped each**  **year. For**  **purposes of**  **the NES**  **and NPV**  **analyses in**  **the**

**ANOPR, DOE**  **assumes that**  **approximately 10**  **percent of**  **the existing**  **commercial refrigeration** 

**units are**  **retired in**  **each year**  **(based on**  **a 10­year**  **average lifetime)**  **and that**  **for units**  **shipped in** 

**2042, any**  **units still**  **remaining at**  **the end**  **of 2052**  **will be**  **replaced.**

10.2.2.4 National A nnual Energy Consumption

The n ational AEC for each equipment class is the product of the annual UEC (expressed as

delivered o r “site” energy use per year per linear foot) for each standard level

as s hown in

**For t**  **he annual**  **shipment­weighted efficiency**  **levels specified**  **in the**  **base case**  **and**

**standards case**  **efficiency scenarios,**  **DOE calculated**  **the shipment**  **weighted UEC**  **values shown** 

**in Table**  **10.2.5. For**  **each equipment**  **class, the**  **value shown**  **for a**  **given efficiency**  **level is**  **the**

**shipment­weighted average**  **UEC for**  **each standard**  **level, after**  **taking into**  **account the**  **non**

**availability of**  **equipment at**  **efficiency levels**  **below the**  **minimum standard**  **efficiency level** 

**shown.**

**10­9 Table**  **10.2.4 and**  **the total**  **linear feet**  **of CRE**  **units of**  **each vintage**  **and equipment**  **class.**

**This approach**  **accounts for**  **differences in**  **UEC from**  **year to**  **year. The**  **calculation for** 

**determining the**  **AEC of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment is**  **shown above**  **in Equation**  **10.3.**

**DOE i**  **nitially calculated**  **the AEC**  **at the**  **site (i.e.,**  **electricity in**  **kWh consumed**  **by the** 

**CRE units).**  **DOE then**  **calculated primary**  **energy consumption**  **from site**  **energy consumption**  **by**

**applying a**  **conversion factor**  **to account**  **for losses**  **associated with**  **the generation,**  **transmission,**

**and distribution**  **of electricity.** 

10.2.2.5 Site­to­Source C onversion Factor

**The s**  **ite­to­source conversion**  **factor is**  **the multiplicative**  **factor used**  **for converting**  **site**

**energy consumption,**  **expressed in**  **kWh, into**  **primary or**  **source energy**  **consumption, expressed** 

**in quads.**  **The site­to­source**  **conversion factor**  **accounts for**  **losses in**  **electricity generation,** 

**transmission, and**  **distribution. DOE**  **used annual**  **site­to­source conversion**  **factors based**  **on**

**U.S. average**  **v alues**  **for the**  **commercial sector,**  **calculated from**  **the** 2006 Annual Energy Outlook

(AEO), **Table A5.**  **As shown**  **in Table**  **10.2.6, the**  **average conversion**  **factors vary**  **over time,**  **due**

**to projected**  **changes in**  **electricity generation**  **sources (i.e.,**  **the power**  **plant types**  **projected to** 

**provide electricity**  **to the**  **country). DOE**  **intends to**  **update the**  **EIA average**  **site­to­source**

**conversion factors**  **to marginal**  **site­to­source conversion**  **factors for**  **the NOPR**  **based on**  **the**

**results of**  **the utility**  **impacts analysis.** 

**10­10**Table 10.2.6 Site­to­Source Conversion Factors

Year Site­to­Source

C onversion Factor

Btu/kWh Year Site­to­Source

C onversion Factor

Btu/kWh

**2012 10,679**  **2033 9,981** 

**2013 10,638**  **2034 9,944** 

**2014 10,597**  **2035 9,907** 

**2015 10,556**  **2036 9,870** 

**2016 10,530**  **2037 9,833** 

**2017 10,503**  **2038 9,797** 

**2018 10,477**  **2039 9,760** 

**2019 10,500**  **2040 9,723** 

**2020 10,423**  **2041 9,686** 

**2021 10,392**  **2042 9,649** 

**2022 10,361**  **2043 9,612** 

**2023 10,329**  **2044 9,575** 

**2024 10,298**  **2045 9,539** 

**2025 10,267**  **2046 9,502** 

**2026 10,224**  **2047 9,465** 

**2027 10,182**  **2048 9,428** 

**2029 10,140**  **2049 9,391** 

**2030 10,097**  **2050 9,354** 

**2031 10,055**  **2051 9,317** 

**2032 10,018**  **2052 9,281** 

**Source: AEO**  **2006, Table**  **A.5. Linearly**  **extrapolated after**  **2030.**

10.3 NET P RESENT VALUE

10.3.1 Net P resent Value Definition

**The N**  **PV is**  **the value**  **in the**  **present of**  **a time**  **series of**  **costs and**  **savings. The**  **NPV is** 

**given by**  **the equation:** 

NPV

= PVS

– PVC Eq. 10.5

**where**

PVS

**= present**  **value of**  **operating cost**  **savings (including**  **electricity, repair,**  **and**

**maintenance costs),** 

PVC

**= present**  **value of**  **increased total**  **installed costs**  **(including equipment**  **and**

**installation).**

**The** PVS **and** PVC **are determined**  **according to**  **the following**  **expressions:**

PVS



### = 

# ∑ OCS

t **x** 

### DF

t Eq. 10.6

PVC



### = 

# ∑ TIC

t **x** 

### DF

t Eq. 10.7

**where**

**10­11**OCS

**= total**  **annual operating**  **cost savings,** 

TIC

**= total**  **annual installed**  **cost increases,** 

DF

**= discount**  **factor,**

t **= year**  **(** PVS **is summed**  **over 2012­2052,**  **and** PVC **is summed**  **over 2012­2042)** 

**DOE d**  **etermined the**  **contribution to**  PVC **for each**  **year, from**  **the effective**  **date of**  **the**

**standard (2012)**  **to the**  **year 2042,**  **discounted for**  **the ANOPR**  **analysis, to**  **the year**  **2007. The** 

**contribution to**  PVS **was determined**  **for each**  **year, from**  **the effective**  **date of**  **the standard**  **(2012)**

**to the**  **year when**  **units purchased**  **in 2042**  **retire (assumed**  **to be**  **2052). DOE**  **calculated costs**  **and**

**savings as**  **the difference**  **between a**  **standards case**  **and a**  **base case**  **(i.e., without**  **new standards).** 

**DOE calculated**  **a discount**  **factor from**  **the discount**  **rate and**  **the number**  **of years**  **between the** 

**“present” (i.e.,**  **year to**  **which the**  **sum is**  **being discounted)**  **and the**  **year in**  **which the**  **costs and** 

**savings occur.**  **DOE calculated**  **the net**  **present value**  **as the**  **sum over**  **time of**  **the discounted**  **net**

**savings (which**  **is equivalent**  **to the**  **approach shown**  **in Eqns.**  **10.5**

**– 10.7).** 

10.3.2 Net P resent Value Inputs

**Table 1**  **0.3.1 summarizes**  **the inputs**  **to the**  **NPV calculation.** 

Table 1 0.3.1 Net Present Value Inputs

**)**

**)** Input

**Total Annual**  **Installed Cost**  **(** TIC t)

**Total Annual**  **Operating Cost**  **Savings (**  OCS t)

**Discount Factor** 

**Present Value**  **of Costs**  **(** PVC

**Present Value**  **of Savings**  **(** PVS

10.3.2.1 Total A nnual Installed Cost

**The i**  **ncrease in**  **the total**  **annual installed**  **cost is**  **equal to**  **the annual**  **change in**  **the per­unit** 

**total installed**  **cost (difference**  **between base**  **case and**  **standards case)**  **multiplied by**  **the shipments** 

**forecasted in**  **the standards**  **case. The**  **total installed**  **cost includes**  **both the**  **equipment cost**  **and**

**the installation**  **price. DOE**  **based average**  **equipment costs**  **on average**  **manufacturer prices**  **(see**

**chapter 8,**  **life­cycle cost**  **and payback**  **period analysis)**  **multiplied by**  **average overall**  **markup**

**values also**  **shown in**  **chapter 8).**  **DOE based**  **average installation**  **prices on**  **nationally**

**representative values**  **for each**  **equipment class**  **(see chapter**  **8). Table**  **10.3.2 shows**  **the resulting** 

**average total**  **installed costs**  **per linear**  **foot for**  **each of**  **the equipment**  **classes of**  **commercial**

**refrigeration units**  **by efficiency**  **level.**

**DOE d**  **eveloped base­case**  **and standards­case**  **energy efficiency**  **scenarios as**  **discussed in** 

**section 10.2.2.1.**  **For both**  **the base­case**  **and standards­case**  **energy efficiency**  **scenarios, DOE** 

**calculated annual**  **shipment­weighted average**  **efficiencies. Associated**  **with each**  **annual**

**shipment­weighted average**  **efficiency value,**  **DOE assigned**  **a total**  **installed cost,**  **based on** 

**shipment­weighted total**  **installed cost**  **for all**  **efficiency levels.**  **DOE based**  **the relationship** 

**between efficiency**  **and total**  **installed cost**  **for each**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment class**  **on**

**the data**  **in Table**  **10.3.2. As**  **shown in**  **Table 10.3.3,**  **DOE estimated**  **the shipments­weighted** 

**installed cost.**  **DOE determined**  **forecasted average**  **shipments­weighted total**  **installed costs** 

**based on**  **the annual**  **shipments by**  **efficiency level.** 

**10­12**Table 10.3.2 Average Total Installed Cost per Linear Foot by Efficiency Level

Equipment

Class Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **$481.03 $513.65**  **$527.13 $542.10**  **$577.53 $598.79**  **$623.04 $657.20** 

VOP.RC.L **$792.51 $800.45**  **$819.60 $847.93**  **$851.59 $902.58**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **$920.39 $941.38**  **$946.48 $954.69**  **$976.92 $999.37**  **$1,071.92 $1,206.04** 

VCT.RC.M **$739.01 $742.78**  **$745.46 $751.92**  **$758.04 $853.35**  **$930.54 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **$749.77 $773.21**  **$788.96 $806.04**  **$845.16 $867.77**  **$892.91 $954.35** 

VCT.SC.I **$1,006.48 $1,013.28**  **$1,025.24 $1,033.41**  **$1,045.62 $1,165.40**  **$1,209.50 $1,294.37** 

VCS.SC.I **$583.72 $586.37**  **$594.83 $601.22**  **$602.99 $607.24**  **$611.50 $625.36** 

SVO.RC.M **$474.81 $490.19**  **$501.71 $514.40**  **$528.49 $544.24**  **$565.74 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **$761.42 $779.22**  **$780.92 $785.03**  **$801.04 $808.79**  **$861.02 $912.02** 

SOC.RC.M) **$945.72 $952.52**  **$968.94 $975.02**  **$983.52 $1,068.51**  **$1,103.73 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **$478.50 $480.77**  **$486.24 $489.08**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **$502.99 $507.15**  **$516.84 $527.50**  **$539.25 $546.91**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **$639.82 $641.53**  **$651.20 $655.30**  **$657.00 $663.16**  **$667.26 $687.36** 

HZO.SC.L **$792.35 $794.05**  **$806.19 $826.02**  **$830.12 $831.82**  **$871.41 $875.52** 

HCT.SC.I **$511.77 $519.44**  **$521.43 $558.89**  **$568.92 $573.72**  **NA NA** 

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **installed cost**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **only had**  **six possible** 

**efficiency levels.** 

Table 10.3.3 Shipment­Weighted Average Total Installed Cost per Linear Foot by

Efficiency Level

Equipment

Class Level 1

(Base

Case) Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **$542.91 $550.64**  **$556.00 $564.11**  **$587.89 $604.31**  **$625.18 $657.20** 

VOP.RC.L **$831.05 $832.47**  **$839.46 $855.04**  **$857.66 $902.58**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **$977.63 $980.72**  **$982.25 $985.95**  **$999.28 $1,015.86**  **$1,078.46 $1,206.04** 

VCT.RC.M **$765.79 $766.39**  **$767.29 $770.63**  **$774.86 $857.10**  **$930.54 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **$816.89 $821.10**  **$826.49 $834.87**  **$859.37 $876.07**  **$897.19 $954.35** 

VCT.SC.I **$1,076.36 $1,077.23**  **$1,080.48 $1,083.94**  **$1,091.00 $1,178.04**  **$1,215.00 $1,294.37** 

VCS.SC.I **$601.67 $601.98**  **$603.96 $606.26**  **$607.14 $609.80**  **$613.04 $625.36** 

SVO.RC.M **$509.96 $513.13**  **$517.48 $524.24**  **$533.71 $546.25**  **$565.74 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **$802.45 $804.96**  **$805.44 $807.19**  **$816.28 $821.70**  **$864.79 $912.02** 

SOC.RC.M) **$984.34 $985.47**  **$991.07 $994.20**  **$999.96 $1,071.03**  **$1,103.73 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **$483.61 $484.17**  **$486.93 $489.08**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **$522.05 $522.82**  **$526.38 $532.13**  **$540.37 $546.91**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **$657.04 $657.26**  **$659.76 $661.35**  **$662.23 $666.22**  **$669.39 $687.36** 

HZO.SC.L **$827.28 $827.49**  **$830.49 $837.98**  **$840.07 $841.17**  **$871.87 $875.52** 

HCT.SC.I **$540.26 $541.61**  **$542.32 $562.61**  **$569.63 $573.72**  **NA NA** 

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **installed cost**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **only had**  **six possible** 

**efficiency levels.** 

10.3.2.2 Total A nnual Operating Cost Savings

**The a**  **nnual operating**  **cost savings**  **to the**  **Nation are**  **equal to**  **the change**  **in the**  **annual**

**operating costs**  **(difference between**  **base case**  **and standards**  **case) per**  **unit multiplied**  **by the** 

**shipments forecasted**  **in the**  **standards case.** 

**The a**  **nnual operating**  **cost includes**  **electricity, repair,**  **and maintenance**  **costs.**

**10­13**Annual Electricity Cost Savings. **As described**  **in chapter**  **8, life­cycle**  **cost and**  **payback**

**period analysis,**  **DOE calculated**  **annual electricity**  **costs based**  **on average**  **State­level commercial** 

**electricity prices.**  **To calculate**  **annual energy**  **cost savings**  **for a**  **particular equipment**  **class in**  **a**

**given year,**  **DOE first**  **calculated the**  **annual energy**  **costs in**  **each forecast**  **year at**  **each standard** 

**level by**  **multiplying the**  **weighted­average energy**  **consumption at**  **each efficiency**  **level from** 

**Table 10.2.6**  **times the**  **linear feet**  **of equipment**  **stock in**  **the equipment**  **class in**  **each year,**  **and**

**then times**  **the sales­weighted**  **national average**  **electricity prices**  **for the**  **four building**  **types in** 

**chapter 8.**  **To determine**  **energy savings,**  **the national**  **energy costs**  **at each**  **efficiency level** 

**(Levels 2­8)**  **were then**  **subtracted from**  **the national**  **energy costs**  **at the**  **baseline level**  **(Level 1).** 

**Because projections**  **of the**  **stock of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment (expressed**  **in linear**  **feet)**

**are the**  **primary driver**  **used to**  **estimate future**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment shipments,** 

**DOE calculated**  **the national**  **energy cost**  **more readily**  **by expressing**  **the AEC**  **on a**  **linear­footage**

**basis.**

Annual Repair Costs. **D OE**  **based average**  **annual repair**  **costs on**  **the value**  **of the** 

**commercial refrigeration**  **equipment (see**  **chapter 8).**  **Table 10.3.4**  **shows the**  **average repair**  **costs**

**per linear**  **foot for**  **the equipment**  **classes of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **units. Although**  **the NES** 

**spreadsheet provides**  **the capability**  **to allow**  **repair costs**  **to differ**  **by the**  **price of**  **the commercial** 

**refrigeration equipment,**  **and therefore**  **by energy**  **consumption level,**  **for the**  **purposes of**  **ANOPR**

**analysis, DOE**  **assumes the**  **repair costs**  **to be**  **constant for**  **each equipment**  **class as**  **shown in** 

**Table 10.3.4.** 

Table 1 0.3.4 Average Annual Repair Cost per Linear Foot (2006$)

Equipment

Class Annual R epair Cost per Linear Foot

VOP.RC.M **$22.82**

VOP.RC.L **$38.39**

VOP.SC.M **$42.31**

VCT.RC.M **$35.78**

VCT.RC.L **$36.32**

VCT.SC.I **$48.40**

VCS.SC.I **$27.26**

SVO.RC.M **$22.50**

SVO.SC.M **$34.36**

SOC.RC.M) **$46.05**

HZO.RC.M **$22.69**

HZO.RC.L **$23.91**

HZO.SC.M **$28.28**

HZO.SC.L **$35.91**

HCT.SC.I **$21.25**

Annual Maintenance Costs. **DOE determined**  **average annual**  **maintenance costs**  **in two** 

**parts: a**  **preventative maintenance**  **cost of**  **$156/year per**  **unit, regardless**  **of cooling**  **capacity or** 

**efficiency level,**  **and a**  **lighting maintenance**  **cost that**  **varied with**  **efficiency level**  **or when** 

**decreased energy**  **consumption level**  **was due**  **to particular**  **types of**  **lighting measures**  **(see chapter** 

**8). Table**  **10.3.5 shows**  **the resulting**  **annual maintenance**  **costs per**  **linear foot**  **by efficiency**  **level.**

**Table 10.3.6**  **shows the**  **corresponding shipments­weighted**  **annual maintenance**  **cost per**  **linear**

**foot by**  **efficiency level.** 

**10­14**Table 10.3.5 Average Annual Maintenance Cost per Linear Foot by Efficiency Level

(2006$)

Equipment

Class Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13** 

VOP.RC.L **$16.71 $16.71**  **$16.71 $16.71**  **$17.97 $18.60**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **$49.37 $49.37**  **$49.37 $49.37**  **$49.37 $52.77**  **$52.77 $53.95** 

VCT.RC.M **$17.91 $19.96**  **$19.96 $19.96**  **$19.96 $19.96**  **$20.85 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90** 

VCT.SC.I **$26.44 $28.70**  **$28.70 $28.70**  **$28.70 $28.70**  **$28.70 $29.68** 

VCS.SC.I **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26** 

SVO.RC.M **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **$42.71 $42.71**  **$42.71 $42.71**  **$42.71 $43.97**  **$43.97 $44.60** 

SOC.RC.M **$19.18 $19.18**  **$19.18 $21.28**  **$21.28 $22.34**  **$22.34 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00** 

HZO.SC.L **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00** 

HCT.SC.I **$45.61 $45.61**  **$45.61 $45.61**  **$45.61 $45.61**  **NA NA** 

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **maintenance cost**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **only had**  **six possible** 

**efficiency levels.** 

Table 10.3.6 Shipment­Weighted Average Annual Maintenance Cost per Linear Foot by

Efficiency Level (2006$)

Equipment

Class Level 1

(Base Case) Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13**  **$24.13 $24.13** 

VOP.RC.L **$17.14 $17.14**  **$17.14 $17.14**  **$18.05 $18.60**  **NA NA** 

VOP.SC.M **$50.32 $50.32**  **$50.32 $50.32**  **$50.32 $52.83**  **$52.83 $53.95** 

VCT.RC.M **$19.67 $20.00**  **$20.00 $20.00**  **$20.00 $20.00**  **$20.85 NA** 

VCT.RC.L **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90**  **$19.90 $19.90** 

VCT.SC.I **$28.47 $28.76**  **$28.76 $28.76**  **$28.76 $28.76**  **$28.76 $29.68** 

VCS.SC.I **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26**  **$20.26 $20.26** 

SVO.RC.M **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 $20.42**  **$20.42 NA** 

SVO.SC.M **$43.14 $43.14**  **$43.14 $43.14**  **$43.14 $44.02**  **$44.02 $44.60** 

SOC.RC.M) **$20.38 $20.38**  **$20.38 $21.46**  **$21.46 $22.34**  **$22.34 NA** 

HZO.RC.M **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **NA NA**  **NA NA** 

HZO.RC.L **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **$13.00 $13.00**  **NA NA** 

HZO.SC.M **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00** 

HZO.SC.L **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00**  **$39.00 $39.00** 

HCT.SC.I **$45.61 $45.61**  **$45.61 $45.61**  **$45.61 $45.61**  **NA NA** 

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **maintenance cost**  **was calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level.**  **For example,**  **the VOP.RC.L**  **equipment class**  **only**

**had six**  **possible efficiency**  **levels.**

10.3.2.3 Discount F actor

**DOE m**  **ultiplied monetary**  **values in**  **future years**  **by the**  **discount factor**  **in order**  **to**

**determine the**  **present value.**  **The discount**  **factor (**  DF **) is**  **described by**  **the equation:** 



### DF **=1/ (1+r)**  **(** t ­ tp) Eq. 10.8

**where**

**10­15**r **= discount**  **rate,**

t **= year**  **of the**  **monetary value,** 

t p **= year**  **in which**  **the present**  **value is**  **being determined.** 

**DOE e**  **stimated national**  **impacts with**  **both a**  **three­percent and**  **a seven­percent**  **real**

**discount rate**  **as the**  **average real**  **rate of**  **return on**  **private investment**  **in the**  **U.S. economy.**  **These**

**discount rates**  **are used**  **in accordance**  **with the**  **Office of**  **Management and**  **Budget (OMB)’s** 

**guidance to**  **Federal agencies**  **on the**  **development of**  **regulatory analysis**  **(OMB Circular**  **A­4,**

**September 17,**  **2003), and**  **section E.,**  **“Identifying and**  **Measuring Benefits**  **and Costs,”**  **therein.**

**DOE defined**  **the present**  **year as**  **2007 for**  **the ANOPR**  **analysis.**

10.3.2.4 Present V alue of Costs

**The pr**  **esent value**  **of increased**  **installed costs**  **is the**  **annual installed**  **cost increase**  **in each** 

**year (i.e.,**  **the difference**  **between the**  **standards­case and**  **base­case), discounted**  **to the**  **present,**

**and summed**  **for the**  **time period**  **over which**  **DOE is**  **considering the**  **installation of**  **commercial**

**refrigeration equipment**  **(i.e., from**  **the effective**  **date of**  **standards, 2012,**  **to the**  **year 2042).** 

**The i**  **ncrease in**  **total installed**  **cost refers**  **to both**  **equipment cost**  **and installation**  **cost**

**associated with**  **the higher**  **energy efficiency**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration units**  **purchased in**  **the**

**standards case**  **compared to**  **the base**  **case. DOE**  **calculated annual**  **installed costs**  **as the** 

**difference in**  **total installed**  **cost for**  **new equipment**  **purchased each**  **year, multiplied**  **by the** 

**shipments in**  **the standards­case.** 

10.3.2.5 Present V alue of Savings

**The pr**  **esent value**  **of operating**  **cost savings**  **is the**  **annual operating**  **cost savings**  **(i.e., the** 

**difference between**  **the base­case**  **and standards­case)**  **discounted to**  **the year**  **2007, and**  **summed**

**over the**  **period from**  **the effective**  **date of**  **the standard,**  **2012, to**  **the time**  **when the**  **last unit** 

**installed in**  **2042 is**  **retired from**  **service (assumed**  **to be**  **2052). Savings**  **are decreases**  **in**

**operating costs**  **(including electricity,**  **repair, and**  **maintenance) associated**  **with the**  **higher energy** 

**efficiency of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **units purchased**  **in the**  **standards­case compared**  **to the** 

**base­case. Total**  **annual operating**  **cost savings**  **is the**  **savings per**  **unit multiplied**  **by the**  **number**

**of units**  **of each**  **vintage surviving**  **in a**  **particular year.**  **Equipment consumes**  **energy over**  **its**

**entire lifetime,**  **and for**  **units purchased**  **in 2042,**  **the PVS**  **includes energy**  **consumed until**  **the unit** 

**is retired**  **from service**  **at the**  **end of**  **2052.**

10.4 NATIONAL E NERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

**The N**  **ES spreadsheet**  **model provides**  **estimates of**  **the NES**  **and NPV**  **due to**  **various**

**efficiency levels.**  **The inputs**  **to the**  **NES spreadsheet**  **have been**  **discussed earlier**  **in**

**sections 10.2.2**  **(National Energy**  **Savings Inputs)**  **and 10.3.2**  **(Net Present**  **Value Inputs).**  **DOE**

**generated the**  **NES and**  **NPV results**  **using a**  **Microsoft Excel**  **spreadsheet, which**  **is accessible**  **on**

**the Internet** 

**(http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/commercial_refrigeratio**

**n.html). Details**  **and instructions**  **for using**  **the spreadsheet**  **are discussed**  **in Appendix**  **H.**

**10­16**10.4.1 National E nergy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

**Table 1**  **0.4.1 summarizes**  **the inputs**  **to the**  **NES spreadsheet**  **model. For**  **each input**  **a brief** 

**description of**  **the data**  **source is**  **given.**

10.4.2 National E nergy Savings Results

**The f**  **ollowing section**  **provides NES**  **results for**  **each energy**  **consumption level** 

**considered for**  **the 15**  **equipment classes**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration equipment**  **analyzed.**

**Results are**  **cumulative to**  **2042 and**  **are shown**  **as primary**  **energy savings**  **in quads.**  **Inputs to**  **the**

**NES spreadsheet**  **model are**  **based on**  **weighted­average values,**  **yielding results**  **which are** 

**discrete point**  **values, rather**  **than a**  **distribution of**  **values as**  **in the**  **life­cycle cost**  **(LCC) analysis.** 

**Table 1**  **0.4.2 shows**  **the NES**  **results for**  **the efficiency**  **levels analyzed**  **for each**  **equipment**

**class of**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment.**

Table 1 0.4.1 NES and NPV Inputs

Input Data Description

**Shipments Annual**  **s hipments**  **from shipments**  **model (see**  **chapter 9,**  **shipments**

**analysis).**

**Effective D**  **ate of**  **Standard 2012** 

**Base­Case E**  **fficiencies Distribution**  **o f**  **base­case shipments**  **by efficiency**  **level.**

**Standards­Case E**  **fficiencies Distribution**  **o f**  **shipments by**  **efficiency level**  **for each**  **standards case.** 

**Standards c**  **ase annual**  **market shares**  **by efficiency**  **level remain**  **constant**

**over ti**  **me for**  **base­case and**  **each standards**  **case.**

**Annual E**  **nergy Consumption**  **per Annual**  **w eighted­average**  **values are**  **a function**  **of efficiency**  **level.**

**Linear F**  **oot (Established**  **f rom**  **the engineering**  **analysis, chapter**  **5). Converted**  **to a**  **per**

**linear f**  **oot basis.** 

**Total I**  **nstalled Cost**  **per Linear**  **Foot Annual**  **w eighted­average**  **values are**  **a function**  **of efficiency**  **level (see** 

**chapter 8** 

**, Life­Cycle**  **Cost and**  **Payback Period**  **Analysis). Converted**  **to a** 

**per lin**  **ear foot**  **basis.**

**Repair C**  **ost per**  **Linear Foot**  **Annual w**  **eighted­average values**  **are constant**  **with efficiency**  **level (see** 

**chapter 8**  **). Converted**  **to a**  **per linear**  **foot basis.** 

**Maintenance C**  **ost per**  **Linear Foot**  **Annual w**  **eighted­average value**  **equals $156**  **(see chapter**  **8), plus**  **lighting**

**maintenance c**  **ost. Converted**  **to a**  **per linear**  **foot basis.** 

**Escalation o**  **f Electricity**  **Prices 2006**  **E IA**  Annual Energy Outlook **forecasts (to**  **2030) and**  **extrapolation for** 

**beyond 2**  **030 (see**  **chapter 8).** 

**Electricity S**  **ite­to­Source Conversion**  **Conversion v**  **aries yearly**  **and is**  **generated by**  **DOE/EIA’s NEMS** * **program**

**(a ti**  **me series**  **conversion factor;**  **includes electric**  **generation, transmission,** 

**and d**  **istribution losses).** 

**Discount R**  **ate 3**  **a nd**  **7 percent**  **real.**

**Present Y**  **ear Future**  **c osts**  **are discounted**  **to year**  **2007.**

***** **Chapter 13**  **o n**  **the utility**  **impact analysis**  **and chapter**  **14 on**  **the environmental**  **assessment provide**  **more detail**  **on NEMS.** 

**10­17**Table 10.4.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial Refrigeration

Equipment (2012­2042) (quads)

Equipment National E nergy Savings (quads* , **) by Standard Level

Class Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **0.04 0.07**  **0.13 0.26**  **0.33 0.41**  **0.52**

VOP.RC.L § **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **NA**

VOP.SC.M **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.04**  **0.06**

VCT.RC.M **0.00 0.00**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.03 0.03**  **NA**

VCT.RC.L **0.04 0.08**  **0.13 0.27**  **0.36 0.45**  **0.66**

VCT.SC.I **0.00 0.00**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.02 0.02**  **0.03**

VCS.SC.I **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00**

SVO.RC.M **0.01 0.03**  **0.06 0.10**  **0.14 0.20**  **NA**

SVO.SC.M **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.02 0.04**  **0.05**

SOC.RC.M **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.06 0.06**  **NA**

HZO.RC.M **0.00 0.00**  **0.01 NA**  **NA NA**  **NA**

HZO.RC.L **0.00 0.01**  **0.03 0.05**  **0.07 NA**  **NA**

HZO.SC.M **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00**

HZO.SC.L **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.01**  **0.01**

HCT.SC.I **0.00 0.00**  **0.02 0.02**  **0.02 NA**  **NA**

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **energy savings**  **were calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level**  **because the**  **VOP.RC.L only**  **had six**  **possible**

**efficiency l**  **evels. Level**  **1 is**  **the baseline**  **efficiency level,**  **so there**  **would be**  **no savings**  **at Level**  **1 and**  **it has**  **been omitted**  **from the**  **table.**

****** **0.00 i**  **ndicates savings**  **are less**  **than 0.005**  **quadrillion Btu.** 

**§ The**  **V OP.RC.L**  **equipment class**  **had no**  **projected shipments.**  **It was**  **included in**  **the analysis**  **at the**  **request of**  **the industry.** 

10.4.3 Annual C osts and Savings

**As a**  **prelude to**  **providing the**  **NPVs for**  **each standard**  **level in**  **each equipment**  **class, this** 

**section presents**  **the annual**  **equipment cost**  **(or total**  **installed cost)**  **increases and**  **annual operating** 

**cost savings**  **at the**  **national level.** 

**Figure 1**  **0.4.1 shows**  **the changes**  **over time**  **of the**  **non­discounted annual**  **equipment price** 

**increases and**  **the non­discounted**  **operating cost**  **savings at**  **the standard**  **level 4**  **for the** 

**VOP.RC.M equipment**  **class. The**  **total net**  **annual impact**  **is the**  **discounted value**  **of the** 

**difference between**  **annual equipment**  **purchases and**  **annual operating**  **costs at**  **a seven­percent** 

**discount rate.**  **Appendix I**  **shows comparable**  **figures for**  **other efficiency**  **levels and**  **other**

**equipment classes.**  **Each figure**  **also shows**  **the net**  **annual impact,**  **which is**  **the difference** 

**between the**  **savings and**  **costs for**  **each year.**  **The annual**  **equipment price**  **change is**  **the increase** 

**in equipment**  **price for**  **equipment purchased**  **each year**  **over the**  **period 2012–2042.**  **The annual** 

**operating savings**  **is the**  **savings in**  **operating costs**  **for equipment**  **purchased, and**  **which have**  **not**

**been retired,**  **for each**  **year over**  **the time**  **period 2012­2052.**  **DOE determined**  **the annual**  **costs**

**and savings**  **presented in**  **each figure**  **based on**  **the** AEO 2006 **Reference Case.**  **The NPV**  **is the** 

**difference between**  **the cumulative**  **annual discounted**  **savings and**  **the cumulative**  **annual**

**discounted costs.** 

**10­18**0 **Net Savings**

­0.02 ­0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048**Billion 2006$**

**Year**

Undiscounted Total Annual Operating Savings

Undiscounted Annual Equipment Purchase Savings

Discounted Total Net Annual Impact

Figure 10.4.1 National Annual Costs and Savings for Efficiency Level 4

**Figure 1**  **0.4.1 initially**  **shows smaller**  **annual operating**  **cost savings**  **compared to**  **the**

**increased equipment**  **price costs**  **(shown on**  **the figure**  **as operating**  **savings). For**  **efficiency levels** 

**up through**  **Level 8,**  **operating cost**  **savings increase**  **with time,**  **as more**  **and more**  **equipment**

**meeting the**  **efficiency level**  **comprises the**  **commercial refrigeration**  **equipment stock.** 

10.4.4 Net P resent Value Results

**The f**  **ollowing section**  **provides NPV**  **results for**  **the candidate**  **standards levels**  **considered**

**for the**  **equipment classes**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration units.**  **Results are**  **cumulative and**  **are**

**shown as**  **the discounted**  **value of**  **these savings**  **in dollar**  **terms. The**  **inputs to**  **the NES** 

**spreadsheet model**  **are based**  **on weighted­average**  **values yielding**  **results which**  **are discrete** 

**point values,**  **rather than**  **a distribution**  **of values**  **as in**  **the LCC**  **analysis. The**  **present value**  **of**

**increased total**  **installed costs**  **is the**  **total installed**  **cost increase**  **(i.e., the**  **difference between**  **the**

**standards case**  **and base**  **case), discounted**  **to 2007,**  **and summed**  **over the**  **time period**  **in which** 

**DOE evaluates**  **the impact**  **of standards**  **(i.e., from**  **the effective**  **date of**  **standards, 2012,**  **to the** 

**year 2052).** 

**Savings a**  **re decreases**  **in operating**  **costs (including**  **electricity, repair,**  **and maintenance)** 

**associated with**  **the higher**  **energy efficiency**  **of commercial**  **refrigeration units**  **purchased in**  **the**

**standards case**  **compared to**  **the base**  **case. Total**  **operating cost**  **savings are**  **the savings**  **per unit** 

**multiplied by**  **the number**  **of units**  **of each**  **vintage (i.e.,**  **the year**  **of manufacture)**  **surviving in**  **a**

**particular year.**  **Commercial refrigeration**  **equipment consumes**  **energy and**  **must be**  **maintained**

**over its**  **entire lifetime.**  **For units**  **purchased in**  **2042, the**  **operating cost**  **includes energy** 

**consumed and**  **maintenance and**  **repair costs**  **incurred until**  **the last**  **unit is**  **retired from**  **service in** 

**2052.**

**10­19 Table**  **10.4.3 shows**  **the NPV**  **results for**  **the standard**  **levels considered**  **for commercial** 

**refrigeration equipment**  **based on**  **a seven­percent**  **discount rate.**  **DOE based**  **all results**  **on**

**electricity price**  **forecasts from**  **the** AEO 2006 **Reference Case.**  **Detailed results**  **showing the** 

**breakdown of**  **the NPV**  **into national**  **equipment costs**  **and national**  **operating costs**  **are provided**  **in**

**Appendix I.** 

Table 1 0.4.3 Cumulative NPV Results Based on a Seven­Percent Discount Rate

(Billion 2006$)

Equipment Standard L evel (Billion 2006$) *,**

Class Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **0.03 0.08**  **0.13 0.26**  **0.32 0.37**  **0.44**

VOP.RC.L § **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 NA**  **NA**

VOP.SC.M **0.01 0.01**  **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.03**

VCT.RC.M **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.02 0.00**  **NA**

VCT.RC.L **0.06 0.11**  **0.17 0.31**  **0.38 0.45**  **0.59**

VCT.SC.I **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.03 0.03**  **0.03**

VCS.SC.I **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00**

SVO.RC.M **0.01 0.03**  **0.06 0.10**  **0.13 0.17**  **NA**

SVO.SC.M **0.01 0.01**  **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.05**  **0.05**

SOC.RC.M **0.01 0.03**  **0.03 0.03**  **0.02 ­0.01**  **NA**

HZO.RC.M **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 NA**  **NA NA**  **NA**

HZO.RC.L **0.00 0.02**  **0.04 0.07**  **0.08 NA**  **NA**

HZO.SC.M **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00**

HZO.SC.L **0.00 0.00**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.01 0.01**  **0.01**

HCT.SC.I **0.00 0.01**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.03 NA**  **NA**

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **energy savings**  **were calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level**  **because the**  **VOP.RC.L equipment**  **class only**  **had six** 

**possible efficiency**  **levels. Level**  **1 is**  **the baseline**  **efficiency level,**  **so there**  **would be**  **no savings**  **at Level**  **1 and**  **it has**  **been omitted**  **from**

**the t**  **able.**

****** **0.00 i**  **ndicates savings**  **are less**  **than $**  **0.005 billion.** 

**§ The**  **V OP.RC.L**  **equipment class**  **had no**  **projected shipments.**  **It was**  **included in**  **the analysis**  **at the**  **request of**  **the industry.** 

**Table 10.4.4**  **provides the**  **NPV results**  **based on**  **the three­percent**  **discount rate**  **and**

**electricity price**  **forecasts from**  **the** AEO 2006 **Reference Case.**  **As with**  **the NPV**  **results based**  **on**

**a seven­percent**  **discount rate,**  **detailed results**  **showing the**  **breakdown of**  **the NPV**  **into national** 

**equipment costs**  **and national**  **operating costs**  **based upon**  **a three­percent**  **discount rate**  **are**

**provided in**  **Appendix I.** 

**10­20**Table 10.4.4 Cumulative NPV Results based on a Three­Percent Discount Rate

(Billion 2006$)

Equipment Standard L evel (Billion 2006$) *,**

Class Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 7 Level 8

VOP.RC.M **0.09 0.22**  **0.37 0.73**  **0.91 1.08**  **1.36**

VOP.RC.L § **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 NA**  **NA**

VOP.SC.M **0.02 0.02**  **0.03 0.06**  **0.07 0.09**  **0.10**

VCT.RC.M **0.01 0.01**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.06 0.03**  **NA**

VCT.RC.L **0.16 0.28**  **0.44 0.83**  **1.04 1.26**  **1.76**

VCT.SC.I **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.07 0.08**  **0.07**

VCS.SC.I **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00**

SVO.RC.M **0.03 0.09**  **0.17 0.27**  **0.38 0.51**  **NA**

SVO.SC.M **0.02 0.02**  **0.03 0.05**  **0.05 0.13**  **0.14**

SOC.RC.M **0.02 0.07**  **0.07 0.08**  **0.08 0.03**  **NA**

HZO.RC.M **0.00 0.02**  **0.02 NA**  **NA NA**  **NA**

HZO.RC.L **0.01 0.05**  **0.11 0.17**  **0.22 NA**  **NA**

HZO.SC.M **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.00 0.00**  **0.01**

HZO.SC.L **0.00 0.01**  **0.01 0.02**  **0.02 0.03**  **0.03**

HCT.SC.I **0.01 0.01**  **0.06 0.08**  **0.08 NA**  **NA**

***** **A v**  **alue of**  **NA means**  **that no**  **energy savings**  **were calculated**  **for this**  **efficiency level**  **because the**  **VOP.RC.L only**  **had six**  **possible**

**efficiency levels.**  **Level 1**  **is the**  **baseline efficiency**  **level, so**  **there would**  **be no**  **savings at**  **Level 1**  **and it**  **has been**  **omitted from**  **the table.** 

****** **0.00 indicates**  **savings are**  **less than**  **$0.005 billion.** 

**§ The**  **VOP.RC.L equipment**  **class had**  **no projected**  **shipments. It**  **was included**  **in the**  **analysis at**  **the request**  **of the**  **industry.**

**10­21**REFERENCES

**1 Energy**  **Information Administration**  **(EIA). National**  **Energy Modeling**  **System Commercial** 

**Model (2004**  **Version).**

**2 ERG/MKJ.**  **Energy Research**  **Group &**  **M.K. Jaccard**  **& Associates.**  **2000. Integration**  **of GHG** 

**Emissions Reduction**  **Options using**  **CIMS. <<http://www.emrg.sfu.ca/reports/Rollup.pdf>>** 

**(05 June**  **2001).**

**10­22**