# ANALYSIS OF CLOTHES WASHER SHIPMENTS James E. McMahon, LBNL DOE Workshop December 15, 1998 1

# Clothes Washer Shipments • Major Drivers

- Replacing existing clothes washers

- New housing construction 

## • Economic factors

- washer prices

- operating expenses
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## New housing construction • 1.3-2.1 million housing units are added peryear • 7

### 4-90°/o of new housing units have residential clothes washers, depending upon house·vintage 

### (1980-1993) • Estimate new housing accounts for about 

### 1-1.6 million residential clothes washers per year, depending on the year 

### (1981-1996) • 19-33% ofannualresidential clothes washer shipments are to newhousing 3

## Life expectancy ofclothes washers • Clothes washers have lifetimes ranging from 12 to 16 years (14 year average) • Using lifetime distributions and historical shipments, 

### the replacement marketis. estimated to account for 63-85% oftotal shipments, depending on the year

4

## Actual and Estimated Shipments Residential Clothes Washers 

## r--------·----
1 7**~** = 0 

## = 

# - 6 5**~** 3 - 2 -
o_

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

_________J 5

## Estimates of Clothes Washers Shipments are within 11

# o/o ofActual

.**-·-------·-~--** -I 120% -I 110% Total Shipment (lOOo/o) I ! 100% 90%. 80% 

# -**~** 70% - = ...,,.**~** < 60%**~** 0**~** 50%**~** 40% 30%
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

--------**---~----- ---·-·-·-----------··-·-·----~---**  6

# Consumer Economic Factors • Purchase expenses: typically about $420 clothes washer (baseline retail price). • Operating expenses: average $126 peryear

- Energy expenses: average $78 peryear including water heating and**cloth~s** drying, averaged overwater heaters and clothes dryers ofdifferentfuel com_binations.

- Water expenses: average $48 peryearfor water and wastewater rates. 7

# Elasticities for clothes washers • An elasticity is the percent change in a quantity (such as shipments or market share) associated with a percent change in a driving factor • Driving factors may include:

- Operating expense

- Purchase expense 

### • Previous research indicated that market shares by fuel types were related to operating expenses:

- Based on elasticity for refrigerators

- Elasticity: -0.2 8

## To derive clothes washer elasticities • New data and further analysis are needed. • See Consumer Analysis.

9MA H 

# Interim results:**.~roj!Pte«!**

# shiements1' • Projections are within 11°/o of historical total shipments of clothes washers, based on:

- replacement (historical shipments and life expectancy ofexisting clothes washers)

- new housing construction • New factors will include:

- consumer response to economic factors (elasticities)

- future energy prices

- new energy efficiency standards 10flj = e .... 

## - -**~** 10 - I I 9 I I 8**~** I 7 6 5 I 4 3 .. 2 1 

## Projected clothes washer

. shipments

Historical (1957-1996) _...,_Accounting History 

### .. Projected

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 11

### Conclusions: Future Shipments • Accounting for replacement sales and new housing construction provides projection offuture shipments • Economic factors will be addressed using elasticities to characterize consumer response to:

- clothes washer price

- operating expenses