1 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

The Parker Ranch installation in Hawaii

BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM

Distribution Transformers

Energy Conservation Program

Christopher Bolduc

U.S. Department of Energy

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

November 2, 2011
2 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Draft Life-Cycle Cost, Payback Period and National Impacts Analysis 

Results for Medium Voltage Liquid-Immersed Transformers

Prepared for the Medium Voltage Distribution Transformers Negotiated 

Rulemaking Working Group

November 2, 2011

Contents

• Life-Cycle Cost Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• Payback Period Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• Materials Selection Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• National Impacts Results by Efficiency Level for Equipment Classes 1 and 2

• Proposed Trial Standard Levels and Mapping of TSLs to ELs

• National Impacts Results by Trial Standard Level for Equipment Classes 1 and 2

Contents
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Design Line 1 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 43.10% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.10% 26.40%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 56.90% 100.00% 100.00% 99.00% 96.90% 73.60%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 199 1140 1140 1039 1285 734

Median LCC Savings ($) 43 1140 1140 1038 1199 541

-1000

-500

0 

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 1 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 2 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.00% 99.07% 99.11% 99.18% 99.31% 99.41% 99.46%

Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 7.63% 17.15% 23.99% 25.79% 35.02% 55.77% 69.39%

Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 92.37% 82.85% 76.01% 74.21% 64.98% 44.23% 30.61%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 506 256 83 48 -103 -364 -578

Median LCC Savings ($) 568 552 489 454 218 -87 -331

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0 

500

1000

1500

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 2 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 3 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69% 99.73%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 6.35% 4.00% 1.09% 0.97% 1.42% 3.29% 10.97%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 1.38% 1.13% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 92.27% 94.87% 98.89% 99.01% 98.58% 96.71% 89.03%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 5238 6919 8090 8636 9870 10613 8031

Median LCC Savings ($) 4921 7334 8404 8903 10095 10228 7012

-5000

0 

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 3 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 4 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50% 99.60%

Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 0.07% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.13% 0.99% 11.74%

Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.92% 0.95% 0.95% 0.95% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 99.01% 99.01% 99.01% 99.01% 99.64% 99.01% 82.99%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 1544 5171.2 5171.2 5178.6 5210.2 4824 2869

Median LCC Savings ($) 1249 5243.4 5243.4 5252.2 5279.0 4711 2586

0 

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 4 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 5 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 5.72% 2.47% 2.82% 3.20% 4.90% 26.79%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 0.14% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 94.14% 97.44% 97.18% 96.80% 95.10% 73.21%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 16522 18773 19266 19841 18784 8613

Median LCC Savings ($) 17123 19279 19736 20284 19406 8141

-20000

-10000

0 

10000

20000

30000

40000

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 5 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 1 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6

Mean Payback (Years) 32.6 7.5 7.5 9.9 11.8 20.5

Median Payback (Years) 21.3 7.2 7.2 9.5 11.4 19.3

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 90.30% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 9.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 2,225 2,262 2,262 2,336 2,411 2,604

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 198 151 151 149 127 122

0 

20

40

60

80

100

120

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line1 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 2 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 9.2 17.3 22.6 24.5 29.4 34.7 38.4

Median Payback (Years) 5.3 7.3 9.7 12.3 19.5 26.1 30.8

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 98.91% 99.75% 99.35% 99.56% 99.35% 99.48% 99.63%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 1.09% 0.25% 0.65% 0.44% 0.65% 0.52% 0.37%

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 1,758 2,101 2,272 2,355 2,518 2,678 2,473

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 97 92 90 85 76 72 68

0 

20

40

60

80

100

120

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 2 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 3 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 4.8 4.1 4.9 5.0 6.0 10.2 16.9

Median Payback (Years) 2.7 2.5 3.7 3.9 4.8 8.4 14.4

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 95.18% 97.65% 99.98% 99.98% 100.00% 99.92% 99.67%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 4.82% 2.35% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 0.33%

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 4,249 4,247 4,367 4,389 4,515 4,984 5,677

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 1,026 949 880 854 782 657 602

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

10

12

14

16

18

20

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 3 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 4 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 2.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 8.9 17.4

Median Payback (Years) 2.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 8.3 16.5

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 98.99% 98.99% 98.99% 99.01% 99.75% 99.89% 94.71%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 0.99% 0.25% 0.11% 0.02%

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 4,034 4,177 4,177 4,176 4,223 4,580 4,707

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 553 375 375 374 367 323 278

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

10

12

14

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 4 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 5 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Mean Payback (Years) 5.8 4.9 7.2 8.0 11.2 22.9 22.9

Median Payback (Years) 3.4 3.5 5.4 6.2 8.8 19.9 19.9

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 97.14% 99.04% 99.91% 99.78% 99.62% 100.00% 100.00%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 2.86% 0.96% 0.09% 0.22% 0.38% 0.00% 0.00%

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 8,549 8,603 8,857 9,015 9,492 9,828 9,828

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 2,568 2,463 2,357 2,282 2,163 1,709 1,709

0 

5 

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 5 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Core Materials Selection

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 

M12 

M6 

M5 0.0% 

M4 

M3 100.0% 85.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

M2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

H0 

ZDMH 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 

SA1 0.0% 10.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

M12 

M6 

M5 0.0% 

M4 0.0% 

M3 0.0% 0.0% 

M2 91.5% 0.0% 

H0 

ZDMH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

SA1 8.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 1 Design Line 2

•These results represent the fraction of each core material sampled 

in the LCC simulation.

•NULL (blank) values indicate the were no designs available for a 

given core material and efficiency level
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Core Materials Selection (cont)

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

M12 

M6 

M5 0.0% 

M4 0.0% 0.0% 

M3 88.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

M2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

H0 

ZDMH 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 

SA1 11.8% 80.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 3

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

M12 

M6 

M5 0.0% 

M4 

M3 91.7% 0.0% 0.0% 

M2 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

H0 

ZDMH 91.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

SA1 1.0% 8.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 4
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Core Material Selection (cont)

Design Line 5

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 

M12 

M6 

M5 

M4 0.0% 0.0% 

M3 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 

M2 64.7% 0.0% 0.0% 

H0 

ZDMH 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 

SA1 10.6% 96.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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National Impacts Summary Results for 

MV Liquid-immersed, by Efficiency Level

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.74 1.21 1.38 1.59 1.96 2.35 2.48 

Net Present Value (B 2010$) 3% Discount Rate 5.39 6.23 7.00 9.04 7.26 -0.11 -4.16 

7% Discount Rate 0.81 -0.15 -0.37 -0.05 -2.35 -7.56 -10.09 

Summary Results by TSL for Liquid-immersed Transformers

Efficiency Level

Base case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Shipments (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91 
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Summary Results for Equipment Class 1

National Impacts Results for MV 

Liquid-immersed, by Efficiency Level

Summary Results for Equipment Class 2

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 44.80 -3.65 -8.42 -10.52 -12.17 -19.43 -25.72 -29.13

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 41.30 6.55 10.35 11.43 13.31 17.54 19.67 20.78

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.45 0.70 0.76 0.87 1.12 1.24 1.31

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.89 1.93 0.92 1.14 -1.89 -6.05 -8.35

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.25 -0.97 -1.74 -2.04 -4.54 -7.16 -8.57

 

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.13

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 20.04 -1.65 -3.22 -3.13 -2.79 -3.53 -11.14 -13.90

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 35.90 4.15 7.52 9.21 10.69 12.67 17.08 18.09

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.29 0.51 0.62 0.71 0.84 1.11 1.18

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.49 4.30 6.08 7.90 9.15 5.94 4.19

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.55 0.82 1.37 1.99 2.19 -0.41 -1.52
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Equipment Class (EC) 1 EC 2

DL1 DL2 DL3 DL4 DL5

TSL1 EL 5 EL 1 EL 6 EL 5 EL 4

TSL2 EL 6 EL 4 EL 7 EL 7 EL 6

TSL3 EL 4 EL 3 EL 3 EL 2 EL 3

TSL4 EL 3 EL 2 EL 3 EL 2 EL 3

TSL5 EL 4 EL 3 EL 4 EL 3 EL 4

TSL6 EL 6 EL 7 EL 7 EL 7 EL 6

TSL7 EL 6 EL 7 EL 7 EL 7 EL 6

Proposed Trial Standard Levels 

and Mapping of TSLs to ELs

The following draft Trial Standard Levels are presented for discussion.

Draft Trial Standard Levels (TSLs) Description

1. Minimum LCC / Max NPV

2. Max Energy Savings with positive (or near zero) NPV at 3% discount rate

3. 30% Reduction in Operating Costs

4. Materials constraint (greatest LCC Savings with domestically available 

materials)

5. Materials constraint plus (gap-fill between TSL 4 and TSL 6)

6. Maximum Technology
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National Impacts Results for MV Liquidimmersed, by Trial Standard Level

Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 1.43 2.06 1.40 1.41 1.50 2.48

Net Present Value (B 2010$) 3% Discount Rate 12.95 -0.18 7.69 11.84 8.99 -2.31

7% Discount Rate 2.31 -6.86 -0.27 1.87 0.02 -9.55

Summary Results by TSL for Liquid-immersed Transformers

Trial Standard Level

Base case 1 2 3 4 5 6 

Shipments (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.94 1.91 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.91 

Draft Trial Standard Levels (TSLs) Description

1. Minimum LCC / Max NPV

2. Max Energy Savings with positive (or near zero) NPV at 3% discount 

rate

3. 30% Reduction in Operating Costs

4. Materials constraint (greatest LCC Savings with domestically available 

materials)

5. Materials constraint plus (gap-fill between TSL 4 and TSL 6)

6. Maximum Technology
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Summary Results for Equipment Class 1

National Impacts Results for MV Liquidimmersed, by Trial Standard Level

Summary Results for Equipment Class 2

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 0.801 0.797 0.790 0.793 0.795 0.792 0.784

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 22.94 -2.95 -8.43 -5.65 -3.93 -6.35 -14.92

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 13.23 3.76 5.02 3.88 3.66 3.69 6.63

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.754 0.995 0.777 0.736 0.741 1.31

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 6.05 -0.263 1.18 3.74 -0.798 -7.36

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.809 -3.41 -1.78 -0.272 -2.66 -8.28

 

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 1.15 1.15 1.12 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.13

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 10.26 -1.88 -8.75 -1.60 -1.22 -1.12 -7.11

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 11.52 3.38 5.31 3.11 3.36 3.80 5.85

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.676 1.07 0.620 0.671 0.761 1.18

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 6.91 0.081 6.51 8.09 9.79 5.05

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.50 -3.44 1.51 2.14 2.68 -1.26