Simulation Results Upright Freezer

Iterations

Seed 1

0 $505

1 $516

2 $535

3 $552

4 $578

5 $602

6 $656

7 $731

8 $898

The above simulation results are based on the following options:

Iterations 10000

Energy Price Trend AEO 2010 Reference

Efficiency Market Share Scenario Rollup

Manufacturing Cost Scenario Base Case

5% 25% 50%

1 0.0 15.7 52.8

2 0.0 28.1 70.4

3 -2.9 38.9 94.8

Average Life-Cycle Cos

Simulation Controls

Installed 

Price

Efficiency

Level

Efficiency Level 

Description

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 2 3 4 5

Cost ($2009)

Efficiency Level

Life-Cycle Cost Savings

75%

Median

25%

Run Simulation Mean

Run Sensitivities

Run Reference Case

10000
4 -15.0 39.8 110.8 5 -24.9 42.7 128.4 6 -68.3 11.4 111.5 7 -133.2 -42.2 72.6 8 -289.5 -189.1 -63.6

5% 25% 50%

1 0.8 1.3 1.9 2 1.4 2.4 3.6 3 1.6 2.8 4.0 4 2.0 3.4 4.9 5 2.2 3.7 5.3 6 2.9 4.9 7.1 7 3.8 6.4 9.3 8 6.0 10.1 14.7
Net Cost No Impact Net Benefit Median Average

$1,098 $1,603

$1,015 $1,530 $73 0.25% 19.85% 79.90% 1.9 2.2

$964 $1,499 $105 5.02% 1.67% 93.31% 3.6 4.4

$912 $1,464 $140 6.03% 0.59% 93.38% 4.0 4.8

$859 $1,437 $166 9.58% 0.41% 90.01% 4.9 5.7

$806 $1,408 $195 11.54% 0.22% 88.24% 5.3 6.1

$758 $1,414 $189 21.89% 0.00% 78.11% 7.1 8.3

$711 $1,442 $161 34.60% 0.00% 65.40% 9.3 11.0

$673 $1,570 $33 59.73% 0.00% 40.27% 14.7 17.3

 on the following options:

AEO 2010 Reference

75% 95% 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Average

102.8 226.2 1 15.7 15.7 37.2 50.0 123.4 73.4

142.4 325.0 2 28.2 28.1 42.3 72.0 182.5 105.0

189.2 429.9 3 41.8 38.9 55.9 94.4 240.7 139.6

Average 

Savings

Households that Experience

Average Life-Cycle Cost

Annual 

Operating 

Cost* 

Life-Cycle 

Cost

LCC BoxPlot Calculations

Payback Period (years)

Life-Cycle Cost Savings

6 7 8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Years

Efficiency Level

Payback Period

75%

Median

25%

Mean
228.8 535.8 4 54.8 39.8 71.1 117.9 307.0 166.3

270.9 637.7 5 67.7 42.7 85.7 142.5 366.8 195.4

276.6 701.4 6 79.7 11.4 100.1 165.1 424.8 189.4

262.0 744.5 7 91.0 -42.2 114.8 189.4 482.5 161.3

143.5 672.8 8 100.4 -189.1 125.4 207.1 529.3 33.4

75% 95% 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Average

2.8 4.6 1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.9 2.2

5.4 9.8 2 1.0 2.4 1.2 1.8 4.4 4.4

5.9 10.3 3 1.2 2.8 1.2 1.9 4.4 4.8

7.1 12.1 4 1.4 3.4 1.5 2.2 5.0 5.7

7.6 12.9 5 1.5 3.7 1.6 2.3 5.3 6.1

10.3 17.8 6 2.0 4.9 2.2 3.2 7.5 8.3

13.6 23.9 7 2.6 6.4 2.9 4.3 10.3 11.0

21.4 37.5 8 4.1 10.1 4.6 6.7 16.1 17.3

PBP BoxPlot Calculations
7 8


LCC Summary Upright Freezer

User Input: Import Parameters ANNUAL CASH FLOW CALCULATION :

Engineering Data Average

NIA flag 0 Elec

CO2 Price flag 0 from Equipment Price $360 Installed Price Age Year $/kWh

Energy Price Trend from Energy Use 745 kWh TECBase 2007 $0.10

704 kWh FECBase 0

Efficiency Market Share Scenario 1 2014 $0.10

from Discount Rate 2.6% Discount rate 2 2015 $0.10

Manufacturing Cost Scenario from Energy Prices : 3 2016 $0.10

2014 Electricity Price$0.097 $/kWh (in 2009$) 4 2017 $0.10

5 2018 $0.10

Average Lifetime 22 NEW UAF from Base Case Eff Dist Base Case Level 6 2019 $0.10

Average UAF 0.847 0.968 0 7 2020 $0.10

Average Volume 14 8 2021 $0.10

9 2022 $0.10

Links : RECS Households RECS UAF 10 2023 $0.10

Base Case Eff Dist Equipment Price 11 2024 $0.10

Energy Use Energy Prices 12 2025 $0.10

Energy Price Trends Discount Rate 13 2026 $0.10

Lifetime 14 2027 $0.10

EStarModel 15 2028 $0.10

16 2029 $0.10

Upright Freezers : 17 2030 $0.10

Installed Field UEC Annual Cumulative Life LCC Price Oper. Cost Payback Net No Payback 18 2031 $0.10

Level Efficiency Level Source Price Elec Oper. Cost Cash Flow Cycle Cost Savings Increase Saving Period Cost Impact undefined 19 2032 $0.11

$ kWh/yr $ / year $ $ $ year 20 2033 $0.11

> 0 1.00 $360 704 $76.68 $2,513 $1,867 21 2034 $0.11

1 1.10 $372 634 $69.59 $2,327 $1,740 $127 $13 $7.1 1.78 22 2035 $0.11

2 1.15 $392 599 $66.09 $2,248 $1,691 $176 $32 $10.6 3.03 23 2036 $0.11

3 1.20 $409 564 $62.54 $2,166 $1,638 $229 $49 $14.1 3.49 24 2037 $0.11

4 1.25 $435 528 $58.92 $2,090 $1,593 $274 $75 $17.8 4.25 25 2038 $0.11

5 1.30 $459 493 $55.30 $2,012 $1,546 $321 $99 $21.4 4.65 26 2039 $0.11

6 1.35 $512 458 $52.09 $1,975 $1,536 $331 $153 $24.6 6.21 27 2040 $0.11

7 1.40 $587 423 $48.94 $1,962 $1,549 $318 $227 $27.7 8.19 28 2041 $0.11

8 1.44 $752 397 $46.33 $2,053 $1,663 $204 $393 $30.4 ######### 29 2042 $0.11

30 2043 $0.11

Upright Freezers: Sample Calc LCC Savings accountng for Product Efficiency Distribution 31 2044 $0.11

Base Case Efficiency Level (and % market share) 32 2045 $0.11

LCC Savings 81.5% 17.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33 2046 $0.11

Level Efficiency Level Efficiency 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total 

Population

Affected 

Population 34 2047 $0.11

1 1.10 $127 $126.8 $103.3 126.8 35 2048 $0.11

2 1.15 $176 $176.3 $49.5 $152.1 154.4 36 2049 $0.12

3 1.20 $229 $228.7 $101.9 $52.4 $204.2 205.2 37 2050 $0.12

4 1.25 $274 $273.8 $147.0 $97.5 $45.1 $249.1 250.1 38 2051 $0.12

5 1.30 $321 $321.1 $194.3 $144.8 $92.4 $47.3 $296.4 297.0

6 1.35 $331 $330.8 $204.0 $154.5 $102.1 $57.0 $9.7 $306.1 306.1

7 1.40 $318 $318.2 $191.4 $142.0 $89.6 $44.5 -$2.9 -$12.6 $293.5 293.5

8 1.45 $204 $204.3 $77.6 $28.1 -$24.3 -$69.4 -$116.7 -$126.4 -$113.9 $179.6 179.6

Incremental Equipment Prices $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

1 1.10 $13 $12.6 $10.3 12.6

2 1.15 $32 $32.0 $19.4 $29.4 29.9

3 1.20 $49 $49.3 $36.7 $17.2 $46.6 46.8

4 1.25 $75 $75.4 $62.8 $43.4 $26.2 $72.6 72.9

5 1.30 $99 $99.3 $86.7 $67.3 $50.1 $23.9 $96.5 96.7

6 1.35 $153 $152.8 $140.2 $120.8 $103.5 $77.4 $53.5 $149.9 149.9

7 1.40 $227 $227.4 $214.8 $195.3 $178.1 $151.9 $128.0 $74.6 $224.5 224.5

8 1.45 $393 $392.5 $379.9 $360.5 $343.3 $317.1 $293.2 $239.7 $165.2 $389.7 389.7

Operating Cost Savings $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $7 $7.1 $5.8 7.1

2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $11 $10.6 $3.5 $9.2 9.4

3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $14 $14.1 $7.0 $3.5 $12.8 12.8

4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $18 $17.8 $10.7 $7.2 $3.6 $16.4 16.4

5 Max Available 1.30 $21 $21.4 $14.3 $10.8 $7.2 $3.6 $20.0 20.0

Efficiency Index

Used in Sample Calc

AEO 2010 Referenc

 Sample Calc CB Simulation

Rollup

Base Ca
6 Max Available 1.35 $25 $24.6 $17.5 $14.0 $10.5 $6.8 $3.2 $23.2 23.2 7 1.40 $28 $27.7 $20.7 $17.2 $13.6 $10.0 $6.4 $3.2 $26.3 26.3 8 1.45 $30 $30.4 $23.3 $19.8 $16.2 $12.6 $9.0 $5.8 $2.6 $29.0 29.0

Payback Periods 1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 1.8 1.8 1.8 2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 3.0 5.5 3.2 3.5 3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 3.5 5.2 4.9 3.7 3.8 4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 4.2 5.9 6.1 7.2 4.4 4.5 5 Max Available 1.30 4.6 6.1 6.2 6.9 6.6 4.8 4.9 6 Max Available 1.35 6.2 8.0 8.6 9.9 11.3 16.7 6.5 6.6 7 Max Available 1.40 8.2 10.4 11.4 13.1 15.2 20.1 23.7 8.5 8.6 8 Max Available 1.45 12.9 16.3 18.2 21.2 25.2 32.7 41.6 63.3 13.5 13.6

CALCULATION :

Discount Efficiency Level

Factor 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2.6%

1.00 $359.63 $372.23 $391.67 $408.91 $435.07 $458.97 $512.43 $587.00 $752.17

0.98 $68.45 $61.61 $58.18 $54.76 $51.34 $47.92 $44.49 $41.07 $38.61

0.95 $72.69 $66.02 $62.73 $59.40 $55.98 $52.56 $49.57 $46.65 $44.19

0.93 $73.17 $66.45 $63.13 $59.77 $56.34 $52.90 $49.88 $46.93 $44.45

0.90 $73.51 $66.76 $63.42 $60.05 $56.59 $53.13 $50.10 $47.14 $44.65

0.88 $73.46 $66.71 $63.38 $60.01 $56.55 $53.10 $50.07 $47.11 $44.62

0.86 $73.24 $66.52 $63.20 $59.84 $56.39 $52.95 $49.93 $46.98 $44.50

0.84 $73.60 $66.84 $63.50 $60.12 $56.66 $53.20 $50.17 $47.19 $44.70

0.82 $73.96 $67.16 $63.81 $60.41 $56.93 $53.45 $50.40 $47.41 $44.90

0.80 $74.12 $67.31 $63.94 $60.54 $57.05 $53.56 $50.50 $47.50 $44.99

0.78 $74.37 $67.54 $64.16 $60.74 $57.24 $53.74 $50.67 $47.66 $45.14

0.76 $74.56 $67.70 $64.31 $60.89 $57.38 $53.87 $50.79 $47.76 $45.24

0.74 $74.50 $67.65 $64.27 $60.84 $57.34 $53.83 $50.75 $47.73 $45.21

0.72 $74.80 $67.92 $64.52 $61.08 $57.56 $54.04 $50.95 $47.91 $45.38

0.70 $75.18 $68.26 $64.84 $61.39 $57.85 $54.31 $51.19 $48.14 $45.59

0.68 $75.53 $68.58 $65.14 $61.67 $58.11 $54.55 $51.42 $48.35 $45.79

0.67 $76.40 $69.36 $65.88 $62.37 $58.76 $55.16 $51.99 $48.87 $46.28

0.65 $77.10 $69.99 $66.48 $62.93 $59.29 $55.65 $52.44 $49.29 $46.67

0.63 $77.87 $70.68 $67.13 $63.54 $59.86 $56.19 $52.94 $49.75 $47.11

0.62 $78.53 $71.27 $67.69 $64.06 $60.35 $56.65 $53.37 $50.15 $47.48

0.60 $78.84 $71.56 $67.96 $64.32 $60.59 $56.87 $53.57 $50.34 $47.66

0.59 $79.36 $72.03 $68.40 $64.73 $60.98 $57.23 $53.91 $50.65 $47.95

0.57 $79.83 $72.45 $68.80 $65.11 $61.33 $57.56 $54.22 $50.93 $48.21

0.56 $80.39 $72.95 $69.27 $65.55 $61.75 $57.95 $54.58 $51.26 $48.53

0.54 $80.76 $73.29 $69.59 $65.85 $62.03 $58.21 $54.82 $51.49 $48.74

0.53 $81.14 $73.63 $69.91 $66.15 $62.32 $58.48 $55.07 $51.72 $48.95

0.52 $81.52 $73.97 $70.23 $66.46 $62.60 $58.74 $55.31 $51.94 $49.17

0.50 $81.90 $74.31 $70.56 $66.76 $62.89 $59.01 $55.56 $52.17 $49.38

0.49 $82.29 $74.66 $70.88 $67.07 $63.18 $59.28 $55.81 $52.40 $49.60

0.48 $82.67 $75.00 $71.21 $67.38 $63.46 $59.55 $56.06 $52.63 $49.81

0.47 $83.06 $75.35 $71.54 $67.69 $63.75 $59.82 $56.31 $52.87 $50.03

0.46 $83.45 $75.70 $71.87 $68.00 $64.05 $60.09 $56.57 $53.10 $50.25

0.44 $83.84 $76.05 $72.20 $68.31 $64.34 $60.37 $56.82 $53.33 $50.47

0.43 $84.23 $76.41 $72.54 $68.63 $64.64 $60.64 $57.08 $53.57 $50.70

0.42 $84.63 $76.76 $72.87 $68.94 $64.93 $60.92 $57.33 $53.81 $50.92

0.41 $85.02 $77.12 $73.21 $69.26 $65.23 $61.20 $57.59 $54.05 $51.14

0.40 $85.42 $77.48 $73.55 $69.58 $65.53 $61.48 $57.85 $54.29 $51.37

0.39 $85.82 $77.84 $73.89 $69.90 $65.83 $61.76 $58.11 $54.53 $51.59

0.38 $86.23 $78.20 $74.23 $70.22 $66.13 $62.04 $58.37 $54.77 $51.82


RECS Households back to Summary

Export Parameters Household id DOEID YEARMADE

To Energy Prices and Equipment Price: 1 1 3

Div & Lrg State 5 to select Energy Price 2 4 1

and Sales Tax Rate 3 24 4

4 56 3

Local Parameters 5 57 9

Sampled House ID 3634 6 61 1

7 113 1

RECS Code Definitions 8 133 9

DIVISION 9 134 3

 1 = New England Census Division 10 161 1

 2 = Middle Atlantic Census Division 11 173 8

 3 = East North Central Census Division 12 175 5

 4 = West North Central Census Division 13 176 7

 5 = South Atlantic Census Division 14 202 5

 6 = East South Central Census Division 15 206 3

 7 = West South Central Census Division 16 211 6

 8 = Mountain Census Division 17 224 4

 9 = Pacific Census Division 18 225 9

Large State 19 264 5

 1 = New York State 20 268 5

 2 = California 21 309 4

 3 = Texas 22 314 3

 4 = Florida 23 333 9

24 378 8

25 387 8

26 388 7

27 398 4

28 399 5

29 428 5

30 457 6

31 502 9

32 507 13

33 555 11

34 572 2

35 575 3

36 578 10

37 594 2

38 609 10

39 616 3

40 627 6

41 662 4

42 679 3

43 682 6

44 689 1

45 711 1

46 727 7

47 737 3

48 784 8

49 807 2

50 836 4

51 859 4

52 861 11

53 871 5

54 899 4

55 919 10

56 921 5
57 926 10

58 943

4

59 986

1

60 1001

2

61 1018

8

62 1020

9

63 1029

5

64 1047

1

65 1068

7

66 1069

7

67 1071

9

68 1074

9

69 1092

1

70 1098

1

71 1108

3

72 1126

7

73 1132

6

74 1137

6

75 1171

2

76 1229

5

77 1259

3

78 1262

9

79 1284

1

80 1321

2

81 1333

5

82 1336

4

83 1340

8

84 1354

5

85 1373

5

86 1377

1

87 1403

8

88 1406

9

89 1422

3

90 1430

6

91 1476

7

92 1484

8

93 1499

3

94 1507

9

95 1523

1

96 1550

8

97 1584

7

98 1585

9

99 1616

4

100 1630

5

101 1638

7

102 1656

3

103 1701

2

104 1702

1

105 1723

5

106 1731

9

107 1736

7

108 1743

5

109 1748

3

110 1754

1

111 1759

5

112 1764

6

113 1774

4

114 1796

3

115 1815

4
116 1827

1

117 1829

1

118 1845

8

119 1866

4

120 1878

1

121 1896

5

122 1904

7

123 1907

3

124 1909

9

125 1918

4

126 1919

9

127 1932

7

128 1988

6

129 2005

3

130 2035

7

131 2070

8

132 2079

4

133 2090

4

134 2094

6

135 2106 11

136 2128

9

137 2130

3

138 2133

2

139 2139

4

140 2143

5

141 2164

3

142 2195

8

143 2244

1

144 2286

4

145 2309

4

146 2320

5

147 2340

5

148 2349

9

149 2373

3

150 2379

5

151 2396 12

152 2397

7

153 2418

8

154 2435

9

155 2457

2

156 2513

9

157 2533

4

158 2543

1

159 2544

2

160 2552

9

161 2574

6

162 2641

5

163 2655

5

164 2676

2

165 2767

5

166 2783 10

167 2806

5

168 2813

2

169 2848

9

170 2858

6

171 2892

9

172 2905

1

173 2917

7

174 2927

8
175 2953

6

176 3069

8

177 3086

5

178 3093

5

179 3097

5

180 3146

9

181 3152

9

182 3178 10

183 3181

2

184 3187

3

185 3195

5

186 3204 10

187 3231

5

188 3240

5

189 3248

5

190 3249

7

191 3276

1

192 3295

5

193 3366

5

194 3440

2

195 3445

3

196 3453

3

197 3472

9

198 3544

4

199 3548

5

200 3552

5

201 3580

6

202 3615

5

203 3616 13

204 3634

7

205 3684

3

206 3698

1

207 3700

4

208 3703

5

209 3704

5

210 3710

5

211 3726

4

212 3730

3

213 3743

7

214 3744

5

215 3750

4

216 3756

1

217 3757

8

218 3758

7

219 3798

7

220 3806 13

221 3811

9

222 3812

1

223 3827

4

224 3846

5

225 3851

1

226 3857

5

227 3859

5

228 3860

3

229 3893

5

230 3925

5

231 3939

1

232 3971

6

233 4013

5
234 4043

5

235 4057

2

236 4073

5

237 4095

9

238 4101

4

239 4120

4

240 4169

4

241 4171

9

242 4189

3

243 4214

6

244 4279

5

245 4288

5

246 4318

6

247 4359

5

248 4363

7
















































NWEIGHT DIVISION LRGSTATE HD65 CD65 SIZFREEZ AGEFRZR SIZRFRI2 BTUELFZZ

25678 7 3 1231 3281 3 2 5 3265

22345 9 0 5261 667 3 6 9 7807

19828 6 0 4597 1143 3 5 4 7310

35902 4 0 4972 1496 4 5 9 3198

27566 3 0 7974 587 4 1 9 4119

37176 5 0 6372 585 3 5 9 3332

8065 3 0 6343 1025 4 5 9 4450

13303 1 0 9089 249 3 2 9 4716

28936 9 2 1865 2350 3 2 9 4580

33714 5 0 2133 2271 4 4 9 5200

19849 8 0 5214 946 3 4 9 4624

46641 5 0 5475 703 4 3 9 4620

22977 6 0 1563 2511 4 3 3 8333

26642 2 0 4359 1792 2 4 2 7931

34964 5 0 4166 1881 3 1 1 4813

32830 7 3 827 3864 3 3 3 3731

30281 3 0 7404 747 4 4 4 6096

22846 9 0 5538 674 3 4 9 7633

19849 8 0 5227 933 4 3 9 6774

33659 5 0 3027 1470 2 5 9 5759

25633 4 0 4215 2022 3 5 9 4712

29679 7 3 1103 2828 3 6 9 6713

31433 5 0 3223 1673 3 3 9 6660

25293 8 0 3145 2379 3 3 9 5374

22742 8 0 1174 3584 3 2 3 6359

33659 5 0 3165 1361 3 4 4 7325

25636 4 0 4868 1529 5 3 9 6269

24051 8 0 5188 971 4 5 9 4379

36753 5 4 546 3623 3 3 9 3419

25293 8 0 3387 2281 4 2 9 3916

36753 5 4 580 3433 4 2 9 3529

24134 9 0 5335 488 4 4 9 6501

15101 1 0 7030 538 3 1 9 5693

34282 4 0 4716 1381 5 3 9 7264

48243 7 0 1301 3192 5 4 9 4127

22742 8 0 706 4237 3 1 2 4323

29553 3 0 6008 1109 2 3 9 5041

30293 5 0 3077 1974 3 2 1 4826

5288 2 0 5018 1290 4 1 9 6354

30485 5 0 2612 2130 3 3 9 6573

7030 3 0 5857 1312 5 3 3 7520

8237 9 0 9381 0 3 4 9 6763

29638 5 0 3012 2193 3 1 3 7357

24274 9 2 1241 1062 2 3 9 2802

5361 2 1 7483 263 4 4 9 15420

31027 5 0 3060 2009 3 4 9 5719

25955 9 2 1195 1545 3 2 3 4026

15101 1 0 7255 462 3 3 2 5798

28195 5 0 2039 2439 2 2 9 4784

20778 7 0 3752 1913 2 1 9 5871

3324 1 0 9570 184 3 2 9 3308

27601 6 0 1653 2468 3 4 3 6155

31020 5 0 3247 1602 4 1 4 3913

16284 9 0 17 2814 4 3 9 3392

28673 5 0 1991 3010 3 1 9 4952

22807 9 0 4166 250 5 3 2 7610
19484

40 4999 1435419 4511

380780 6544 267314 2812

3028550 4394 1677439 6754

2940570 3371 2024539 8060

2060080 2289 2301343 5907

2165180 7224 586529 4881

3064030 7062 810439 5855

2408610 6601 731319 5023

3003270 3257 2098349 5063

1927160 4040 1728349 2084

3458654 464 3177339 3660

3175660 1647 2541549 6116

1192210 6626 798411 4790

2046160 2065 2262339 2603

623620 4705 1385349 5662

2016180 4644 941349 3843

2426292 4675 397434 6649

3059973 1760 3684439 4626

3424750 4209 1718429 5138

2399270 3726 1947413 5540

2388192 1900 2158222 7279

3331150 4488 1405429 5395

3217130 7505 711339 3375

4388930 6124 1156532 6794

443780 6810 226424 8572

2739390 7456 97549 8100

2830730 6238 961314 5202

2716921 6451 996239 6195

3322621 5582 1049349 3853

2664220 4661 1572239 4872

2747640 4807 1556239 3493

2278940 7196 607233 7132

2297230 7162 820359 6937

3152373 1417 2976239 2354

2819550 2123 2323219 6116

3062930 7060 810525 8803

2741370 3459 2118349 3713

3268350 3118 1818434 6185

2053880 5563 752243 5385

2283130 7543 723349 3821

3675354 541 3651439 5648

665630 6030 1147532 3337

1896860 3992 1645319 7226

1884260 4249 1447434 7362

3151392 2543 2054543 4720

3106340 4930 1510349 3780

2716730 5624 1099439 3157

2563640 4861 1531424 5572

1982860 4420 1449453 7889

3458654 413 3589329 5131

4464754 700 3280439 6590

1979040 4804 1630239 5928

3028130 7231 782359 5773

475721 7236 862549 6308

1439910 6684 680359 4117

3098330 7293 742232 3196

4387330 6081 1167454 4696

3675354 419 3776439 5067

2806030 7238 855441 5116
29238

20 4669 1402433 5903

2197980 6799 228239 3187

2000880 7226 325329 5408

2392720 5418 1108334 5583

2611030 6210 1074359 4526

2280790 4277 211451 4092

3652821 7158 321449 5708

796990 9248 12319 5869

805690 9110 34429 4581

13439900 3351325 3418

2819550 2143 2219439 6202

2594580 5629 722369 5381

2621790 4592 327429 4835

1703710 5922 880349 4994

2963850 3117 1840454 4208

2924850 3138 1769434 8434

2571573 2613 2343343 6920

3191230 5190 1295359 6289

444050 4325 1611449 5032

3488130 7639 633519 4668

2550173 1317 2739544 3847

2427492 970 1301449 5339

3457073 1200 3399349 6273

2595592 1038 796319 4550

2627930 5962 925441 4617

2714040 7371 361239 4242

2579292 2115 1610349 5728

3084321 4951 1276349 2940

1988360 3472 1941441 11576

3084450 2813 1734444 5632

2016180 4450 1006439 2961

3181830 5216 1287339 5297

2326980 974 4158333 2953

3425650 5155 1125343 5418

3197850 5197 1083434 3300

2724280 5259 990329 5536

496340 5388 1437341 7945

2053880 5281 1143423 4792

2283130 7124 828233 5529

2018480 5444 708419 5663

1996992 2256 93229 5140

1324810 5975 853349 4405

3701990 4505 350319 2909

2595592 1051 766535 8774

2197980 7156 156249 4444

3365950 3211 1629449 4406

3623454 772 3208229 5179

2595592 1273 1552353 4351

3111373 1157 3553459 5836

404080 5400 1153252 3749

2572220 4821 1304329 7270

566050 4362 1621332 6078

4801040 4441 1797229 7732

2833430 6133 1121232 3065

1971280 7111 633349 8648

2135840 6239 906439 7175

2885840 4266 1763239 5728

1927160 4249 1525329 1583

2867350 2056 2420449 6972
42693

50 2297 2290319 4096

2288240 4939 1522449 8142

2413490 4588 999453 6264

2584073 1147 2916323 7098

2778570 1584 2887439 8417

2636373 1678 2853419 4844

3176690 4688 296433 5522

2550173 1307 2838429 4537

3197850 5166 1114369 8135

3691230 6167 1113529 5824

2842792 2543 2055329 5512

3102050 3164 1727433 4422

3003270 3537 2043449 7352

4269350 2324 2359555 5250

2924850 3089 1933549 3003

2611030 6008 1153349 3681

3785530 6483 981329 3092

2989292 951 713329 5966

3221150 4584 1417339 5174

3840070 1585 2884429 5044

2153290 5115 740319 5733

1192210 6338 955343 3665

2125160 2030 2285269 3839

2650321 6305 1013434 4211

2853173 2321 2804343 7076

2907070 3846 1788459 5408

4862654 113 4671439 2832

3106340 4926 1511219 7441

2963850 3018 2171529 4653

3048550 2444 1937432 3477

2701640 6342 928443 8070

499740 6520 698329 4634

2438340 5624 1376433 5278

2924850 3014 2186459 4549

3143930 5179 1450439 8878

2134592 2683 1249449 3305

3717821 5360 1263321 4042

3190530 6104 1010551 5231

3646473 1734 2467339 5203

2134592 2454 989425 3933

3059973 1850 3051339 5364

4132650 4600 1497319 4241

3151392 2647 1714229 6639

2297760 1679 2216339 4726

2246592 2080 1415419 3796

2567873 1230 3285233 12117

2223180 6581 276521 6959

2833430 5799 1337334 5690

823790 9514 41449 4420

3591070 3492 2070249 5989

2687421 6853 761239 9795

3793292 2445 507549 6118

2946840 4757 1322339 5963

1963792 613 1587421 5232

3028130 7484 731313 6074

2615240 7311 756329 6879

444050 4151 2186319 2928

2130580 5504 1046349 5341

3331021 7880 193459 6046
19701

60 3392 1862339 7750

2595592 1243 1057524 4803

2611030 5834 1336353 5269

2685140 5957 1269333 10293

3726630 4881 1331424 6434

2874720 5309 1116223 5184

1439910 6261 803323 8159

823790 96650422 8807

2810720 5362 1242333 5542

2924850 3175 1608331 5216

2008060 2869 2362429 3215

470050 3122 1824349 4763

2060890 5432 703369 4119

3717821 5352 1272349 12185

2273620 5972 925239 5762
















































DOLELRFG DOLELFZZ MONEYPY Freezer NHSLDMEM CELLAR BASEHEAT

156 121 8 9 2 0 9

103 153 6 9 8 0 9

268 144 18 9 2 1 0

73 73 10 9 1 1 0

109 102 24 9 3 1 2

51 76 5 9 1 0 9

93 141 3 9 1 0 9

135 214 11 9 3 1 0

120 190 8 9 1 0 9

89 132 7 9 1 0 9

81 120 17 9 3 1 2

54 97 7 9 1 1 2

330 181 24 9 3 0 9

419 304 14 9 4 1 1

216 143 9 9 3 1 1

199 114 18 9 2 9 9

410 176 24 9 2 1 2

172 150 13 9 3 0 9

187 175 20 9 4 1 0

184 164 14 9 2 0 9

77 109 6 9 1 0 9

122 219 13 9 2 0 9

149 140 11 9 2 0 9

173 161 24 9 3 0 9

198 176 15 9 4 0 9

281 203 24 9 2 1 0

82 129 17 9 4 1 1

133 119 4 9 1 1 0

87 92 23 9 2 0 9

76 114 11 9 4 0 9

102 95 23 9 2 0 9

80 161 16 9 2 0 9

112 213 24 9 3 1 0

79 151 13 9 2 1 1

79 111 23 9 2 0 9

90 119 15 9 3 0 9

96 141 13 9 2 1 2

118 123 24 9 2 1 2

69 236 8 9 5 1 0

119 179 2 9 8 0 9

198 204 6 9 2 1 1

278 243 24 9 2 1 1

254 194 11 9 4 0 9

189 158 15 9 4 1 0

339 502 6 9 3 1 0

114 168 5 9 2 9 9

180 147 12 9 2 0 9

384 219 24 9 4 1 1

120 112 6 9 2 0 9

37 127 10 9 2 9 9

72 128 8 9 3 1 0

205 153 19 9 3 0 9

181 106 23 9 2 1 1

196 175 1 9 1 0 9

55 110 20 9 5 9 9

216 144 24 9 2 0 9
125 111 24

9

309

139 848

9

409

105 1673

9

710

199 177 12

9

209

276 231 24

9

209

85 120 20

9

499

89 1518

9

411

223 1869

9

111

60 114 18

9

209

62 558

9

209

139 1233

9

209

75 150 13

9

109

238 194 11

9

210

57 856

9

209

247 2203

9

111

111 104 11

9

209

607 369 24

9

309

158 141 19

9

609

73 1318

9

209

119 139 10

9

309

266 3337

9

509

39 125 10

9

811

49 736

9

111

219 185 24

9

409

363 2657

9

309

112 1576

9

199

177 93 13

9

411

120 1907

9

311

115 170 20

9

811

229 200 16

9

510

72 1027

9

112

247 207 16

9

299

230 201 23

9

411

97 87 14

9

109

129 130 19

9

209

366 234 24

9

411

40 80 17

9

309

237 192 24

9

209

241 134 13

9

511

31 106 17

9

212

171 152 24

9

309

152 100 12

9

211

101 160 12

9

410

379 145 17

9

210

390 217 24

9

409

46 837

9

109

92 779

9

312

98 1106

9

211

281 153 23

9

211

117 173 24

9

309

145 2054

9

199

70 1046

9

310

117 1855

9

210

122 2458

9

310

109 161 19

9

312

90 1046

9

212

162 115 14

9

511

164 137 22

9

209

191 156 20

9

311
257 217 10

9

212

57 97 15

9

210

98 138 23

9

211

136 109 22

9

212

41 1397

9

209

101 829

9

209

151 2139

9

210

61 205 24

9

309

87 166 24

9

209

309 177 19

9

209

153 136 13

9

209

86 128 10

9

199

86 121 13

9

409

117 173 21

9

210

222 92 24

9

212

284 239 23

9

210

336 248 13

9

209

145 136 10

9

111

163 1368

9

411

46 157 13

9

111

262 133 17

9

209

144 2186

9

209

102 1512

9

109

191 167 24

9

411

113 101 21

9

309

57 1038

9

109

319 278 24

9

211

78 150 15

9

411

492 228 16

9

311

484 134 24

9

311

96 80 15

9

309

82 121 23

9

211

113 78 14

9

709

133 1118

9

211

156 65 24

9

311

68 136 19

9

211

216 1986

9

399

210 115 13

9

309

287 164 15

9

312

104 147 24

9

409

250 208 24

9

709

126 186 24

9

311

22 768

9

111

351 294 24

9

410

80 1609

9

209

79 117 15

9

209

111 164 23

9

309

159 186 24

9

209

257 2149

9

109

93 745

9

410

156 280 24

9

309

149 1984

9

299

88 158 12

9

110

140 898

9

311

140 208 15

9

399

73 141 12

9

299

126 1873

9

109

41 38 11

9

411

186 1657

9

299
79 117

6

9

109

139 1466

9

209

199 166 18

9

409

283 225 19

9

309

131 195 19

9

209

91 145 23

9

209

243 130 24

9

109

81 155 23

9

509

96 163 15

9

211

104 1658

9

411

132 210 18

9

299

266 113 24

9

212

102 143 14

9

209

221 143 11

9

109

104 91 24

9

312

61 109 24

9

209

53 95 12

9

211

282 2639

9

109

97 143 13

9

409

42 1435

9

109

58 876

9

512

179 1528

9

212

78 1247

9

499

217 153 13

9

210

310 232 19

9

209

83 1253

9

109

54 766

9

199

47 1616

9

112

69 138 23

9

410

153 93 23

9

209

386 205 13

9

412

89 1268

9

412

237 1305

9

209

179 156 10

9

210

158 1416

9

109

105 944

9

299

222 195 24

9

412

184 146 10

9

211

87 1384

9

499

261 137 11

9

409

47 159 10

9

299

138 114 11

9

310

84 286 15

9

209

57 115 16

9

409

161 143 10

9

309

833 464 13

9

209

237 207 18

9

712

300 1687

9

211

99 156 23

9

209

122 181 12

9

109

224 338 12

9

511

147 208 17

9

109

62 94 18

9

411

277 1666

9

409

173 186 19

9

209

149 220 12

9

499

57 843

9

211

88 130 21

9

411

132 209 24

9

209
79 141 10

9

299

395 387 18

9

209

251 138 17

9

309

447 255 24

9

311

167 138 18

9

211

229 191 22

9

312

426 345 24

9

310

464 293 24

9

409

335 196 17

9

511

250 145 13

9

309

44 755

9

209

134 1257

9

411

55 81 15

9

599

339 478 18

9

211

73 108 23

9

211













































RECS Sample

RECS household sampled Freezer #1 Prod. Class = 9 PC9 SIZFREEZ= RECS code for 'Size of first freezer'

household index 204 Calculate Adj. Volume 1 = Very small (10 cubic feet or less)

RECS id 3634 27.7% random # for cum % 2 = Small (11 to 14 cubic feet)

4 3 = Medium (15 to 18 cubic feet)

Household Characteristics Volume 19.5 cu.ft. 4 = Large (19 to 22 cubic feet)

7 Adj. Vol (AV = a * Vol + b) 33.7 cu.ft. 5 = Very large (more than 32 cubic feet)

5 9 = NA

6.70 Estimate Age of Freezer SIZFREEZ = 1 SIZFREEZ = 2 SIZFREEZ = 3 SIZFREEZ = 4 SIZFREEZ = 5 SIZFREEZ = 9

5.31 3 cum. % size cum. % size cum. % size cum. % size cum. % size cum. % size

23 Age of unit 7.0 0% 1.5 0% 10.5 0% 14.5 0% 18.5 0% 21.5 0% 99

Basement 0 (Y=1, N=0) 0% 2.5 6% 11.5 17% 15.5 12% 19.5 0% 22.5 0% 99

2nd refrigerator in heated space 1 0% 3.5 47% 12.5 39% 16.5 82% 20.5 18% 23.5 0% 99

Heated Space 1 (Y=1, N=0) 0% 4.5 47% 13.5 85% 17.5 94% 21.5 18% 24.5 0% 99

0% 5.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

0% 6.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

Parameters for Residual (Weibul Function) 0% 7.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

scale = 1.0787 0% 8.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

shape = 2.5535 0% 9.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

offset = -1 Determine if unit is Energy Star 0% 10.5 100% 14.5 100% 18.5 100% 22.5 100% 25.5 0% 99

Is unit Energy Star?FALSE 0 Source: CEC Database

AGE (RECS AGE index)

UAF age min age max distribution

Energy* scale (1 if not Energy*) 1.000 1 Less than 2 years 0.0 2.0 1.0

Export to "Energy Use" 2 2 to 4 years old 2.0 5.0 4.0

UAF freezer 0.95 Residual Term 1 3 5 to 9 years old 5.0 10.0 7.0

UAF 0.945 4 10 to 19 years old 10.0 20.0 16.0

5 20 years or older 20.0 38.0 28.0

Residual Term by CB 1 6 Don't know (*) 12.0

99 No Answer (*) 12.0

Household id NWEIGHT (*) age of unit set to random lifetime from Weibull Distribution

1 25678 when AGERFRI1=96 

2 22345

3 19828

4 35902

5 27566

6 37176

7 8065

8 13303

9 28936

10 33714

11 19849

12 46641

13 22977

14 26642

15 34964

16 32830

17 30281

18 22846

19 19849

20 33659

21 25633

22 29679

23 31433

24 25293

25 22742

26 33659

27 25636

28 24051

29 36753

30 25293

31 36753

32 24134

33 15101

34 34282

35 48243

36 22742

37 29553

38 30293

39 5288

40 30485

41 7030

42 8237

43 29638

44 24274

45 5361

46 31027

47 25955

48 15101

49 28195

50 20778

51 3324

52 27601

53 31020

54 16284

55 28673

56 22807

57 19484

58 3807

59 30285

60 29405

61 20600

62 21651

63 30640

64 24086

65 30032

66 19271

67 34586

68 31756

69 11922

70 20461

71 6236

72 20161

73 24262

74 30599

75 34247

76 23992

77 23881

78 33311

79 32171

80 43889

81 4437

82 27393

83 28307

84 27169

85 33226

86 26642

87 27476

88 22789

89 22972

90 31523

91 28195

92 30629

93 27413

94 32683

95 20538

96 22831

97 36753

98 6656

99 18968

100 18842

101 31513

102 31063

103 27167

104 25636

105 19828

106 34586

107 44647

108 19790

109 30281

110 4757

111 14399

112 30983

113 43873

114 36753

115 28060

116 29238

117 21979

118 20008

119 23927

120 26110

121 22807

122 36528

123 7969

124 8056

125 13439

126 28195

127 25945

128 26217

129 17037

130 29638

131 29248

132 25715

133 31912

134 4440

135 34881

136 25501

137 24274

138 34570

139 25955

140 26279

141 27140

142 25792

143 30843

144 19883

145 30844

146 20161

147 31818

148 23269

149 34256

150 31978

151 27242

152 4963

153 20538

154 22831

155 20184

156 19969

157 13248

158 37019

159 25955

160 21979

161 33659

162 36234

163 25955

164 31113

165 4040

166 25722

167 5660

168 48010

169 28334

170 19712

171 21358

172 28858

173 19271

174 28673

175 42693

176 22882

177 24134

178 25840

179 27785

180 26363

181 31766

182 25501

183 31978

184 36912

185 28427

186 31020

187 30032

188 42693

189 29248

190 26110

191 37855

192 29892

193 32211

194 38400

195 21532

196 11922

197 21251

198 26503

199 28531

200 29070

201 48626

202 31063

203 29638

204 30485

205 27016

206 4997

207 24383

208 29248

209 31439

210 21345

211 37178

212 31905

213 36464

214 21345

215 30599

216 41326

217 31513

218 22977

219 22465

220 25678

221 22231

222 28334

223 8237

224 35910

225 26874

226 37932

227 29468

228 19637

229 30281

230 26152

231 4440

232 21305

233 33310

234 19701

235 25955

236 26110

237 26851

238 37266

239 28747

240 14399

241 8237

242 28107

243 29248

244 20080

245 4700

246 20608

247 37178

248 22736







Base Case Eff Dist back to Summary

Export Parameters Upright Freezer Market Share Efficiency 

To LCC Summary: Base Case Level

0

Base Case Efficiency 1.00 1

Corresponding Eff. Level 0 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Non ES 0

ES 1

Upright Freezer Market Share Efficiency 

Non HFC Level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Non ES 0

ES 1

1.6% of the sampled hh get assigned E*

Upright Freezer Market Share Efficiency Data 

Efficiency 

Index 2014

1.00 82%

1.10 17%

1.15 1% 1 17%

1.20 0% 2 1%

1.25 0% 3 0%

1.30 0% 4 0%

1.35 0% 5 0%

1.40 0% 6 0%

1.44 0% 7 0%

Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00 8 0%

Upright Freezer Market Share Efficiency Data 

Efficiency 

Index 2014

1.00 91%

1.10 9%

1.15 0% 1 9%

1.20 0% 2 0%

1.25 0% 3 0%

1.30 0% 4 0%

1.35 0% 5 0%

1.40 0% 6 0%

1.41 0% 7 0%

Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00 8 0%

Energy Star Distribution 

by Efficiency Level

Energy Star Distribution 

by Efficiency Level

0 82%

1 16%

2 1%

3 0%

4 0%

5 0%

6 0%

7 0%

8 0%

0 91%

1 8%

2 0%

3 0%

4 0%

5 0%

6 0%

7 0%

8 0%

Distribution by 

Efficiency Level for Non 

already ES households

Distribution by 

Efficiency Level for Non 

already ES households



Equipment Price back to Summary

Export Parameters Upright freezer (all prices in 2009$)

To LCC Summary:

Total Installed Price Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency

Level 0 Level 0 1.00

0 $360 1 Level 1 1.10

1 $372 2 Level 2 1.15

2 $392 3 Level 3 1.20

3 $409 4 Level 4 1.25

4 $435 5 Level 5 1.30

5 $459 6 Level 6 1.35

6 $512 7 Level 7 1.40

7 $587 8 Level 8 1.44

8 $752

Max Level # 8

From RECS Household: Markups

Div & Lrg State Manufacturer Markup 100%

Price Trend Factor 0.9030 Baseline

Retailer Markup 145%

Sales Tax 6.6%

Total Markup incl. Sales Tax 155%

Baseline Equipment Price

Price of Unit $375

Average Price of Baseline Unit $ 519

Cost (2008$) Frequency

75 87

125 235

175 147

225 436

275 2646

325 8050

375 116824

425 279677

475 81669

525 111579

575 150710

625 160637

675 50843

725 24134

775 2504

825 8584

875 3656

925 4559

975 1563

1025 492

1075 183
1125 92

1175 52

1225 57

1275 82

1325 45

1375 331

1425 99

1475 166

1550 237

1650 614

1750 462

18509

19500

20502

21509

2250 14

2350 11

2450 13

25509

2650 16

2750 31

2850 20

2950 22

3250 43

3750 122

42508

47505

5250 10

57500

62500

67500
Delta Mnfr Retail Installation Total Installed

Price from Base Price Cost Price

$248.02 $359.63 $0.00 $359.63

$10.10 $372.23 $0.00 $372.23

$25.70 $391.67 $0.00 $391.67

$39.52 $408.91 $0.00 $408.91

$60.50 $435.07 $0.00 $435.07

$79.66 $458.97 $0.00 $458.97

$122.54 $512.43 $0.00 $512.43

$182.33 $587.00 $0.00 $587.00

$314.79 $752.17 $0.00 $752.17

Sales Tax by Divison and Large States

Refrigerators

1 New England 6.1% 4.8%

2 Mid Atlantic 6.6% 7.3%

Incremental 3 East North Central 6.9% 16.7%

117% 4 West North Central 6.9% 7.5%

6.6% 5 South Atlantic 6.6% 13.5%

125% 6 East South Central 7.9% 6.0%

7 West South Central 8.4% 3.4%

8 Mountain 6.8% 6.6%

9 Pacific 7.5% 4.3%

10 New York State 8.5% 6.1%

11 California 9.2% 10.7%

12 Texas 8.1% 6.9%

13 Florida 6.7% 6.0%

U.S. Average 7.2%

Fraction of Households by 

Delta Manufacturing Cost

Level Eff Improvement Base CaseEff Improvement Non HFC

0 - -

1 10.0% $11.19 10.0% $ 20.66

2 15.0% $28.46 15.0% $ 35.53

3 20.0% $43.77 20.0% $ 56.14

4 25.0% $67.00 25.0% $ 76.83

5 30.0% $88.22 30.0% $ 114.54

6 35.0% $135.70 35.0% $ 171.36

7 40.0% $201.92 40.0% $ 313.01

8 43.6% $348.61 40.8% $ 343.28

Freezers

3.2%

6.0%

18.7%

11.1%

15.4%

8.2%

5.2%

8.2%

6.1%

2.9%

5.5%

6.1%

3.3%

Fraction of Households by 








Repair Cost back to Summary

Export Parameters

To LCC Summary:

Annual Repair Cost

Level

0 $4.37

1 $4.53

2 $4.66

3 $4.74

4 $4.74

5 $4.74

6 $5.17

7 $5.65

8 $5.65




Energy Use back to Summary

Import from RECS UAF Upright freezers

UAF = 0.945

Level

0

TEC of Standard Unit 1

kWh = c * AV + d c d 2

2001 Standards 12.4 326.1 3

ESAF Unit 1 1.000 4

5

6

7

8


Upright freezers

TEC FEC

Efficiency Level Source Standard Unit

kWh kWh

Level 0 1.00 745.43 704.43

Level 1 1.10 670.88 633.98

Level 2 1.15 633.61 598.76

Level 3 1.20 596.34 563.54

Level 4 1.25 559.07 528.32

Level 5 1.30 521.80 493.10

Level 6 1.35 484.53 457.88

Level 7 1.40 447.26 422.66

Level 8 1.44 420.42 397.30

Efficiency 

Index















Rebuttable PBP back to Summary

Base Case Total Installed TEC

Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency Price kWh

0 Level 0 1.00 $555.08 627.2

1 Level 1 1.10 $569.04 564.4

2 Level 2 1.15 $590.57 533.1

3 Level 3 1.20 $609.66 501.7

4 Level 4 1.25 $638.63 470.4

5 Level 5 1.30 $665.09 439.0

6 Level 6 1.35 $724.30 407.7

7 Level 7 1.40 $806.88 376.3

8 Level 8 1.44 $989.79 353.7

Non HFC Total Installed TEC

Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency Price kWh

0 Level 0 1.00 $555.08 627.2

1 Level 1 1.10 $580.85 564.4

2 Level 2 1.15 $599.38 533.1

3 Level 3 1.20 $625.09 501.7

4 Level 4 1.25 $650.89 470.4

5 Level 5 1.30 $697.92 439.0

6 Level 6 1.35 $768.77 407.7

7 Level 7 1.40 $945.40 376.3

8 Level 8 1.41 $983.15 371.4
1st Year Rebuttable 

Energy Cost PBP

$ 72.0

$ 64.8 1.9

$ 61.2 3.3

$ 57.6 3.8

$ 54.0 4.6

$ 50.4 5.1

$ 46.8 6.7

$ 43.2 8.7

$ 40.6 13.8

1st Year Rebuttable 

Energy Cost PBP

$ 72.0

$ 64.8 3.6

$ 61.2 4.1

$ 57.6 4.9

$ 54.0 5.3

$ 50.4 6.6

$ 46.8 8.5

$ 43.2 13.5

$ 42.7 14.6



Energy Prices back to Summary

Export Parameters Scale 2007 Prices in 2009$

To LCC Summary: 2007 Residential Energy Prices

Sampled Household Div. & Elec

2007 Elec Price $0.098 $/kWh Lrg State 2009$ / kWh

1 $0.162

Import Parameters 2 $0.127

From RECS Household: RECS ID 3634 3 $0.102

Div & Lrg State 5 4 $0.088

5 $0.098

6 $0.087

7 $0.093

8 $0.097

9 $0.099

10 $0.178

11 $0.150

12 $0.128

13 $0.116

U.S. Avg $0.115

CPI's used to scale $ to 2009$

year CPI

2005 195.3

2006 201.6

2007 207.3

2008 215.3

2009 214.5

2007 price Source: EIA

Div. & Elec

Lrg State 2006$ / kWh

1 $0.152

2 $0.119

3 $0.096

4 $0.082

5 $0.092

6 $0.081

7 $0.087

8 $0.091

9 $0.093

10 $0.167

11 $0.141

12 $0.120

13 $0.109

U.S. Avg $0.108







Energy Price Trends back to Summary

Import Parameters AEO 2010 Residential Energy Price Projection for Electricity

from: LCC Summary (GUI) 1 Reference Case

Fuel Price Projection Index 1 2 High Growth Scenario

i.e. AEO 2010 Reference 3 Low Growth Scenario

Alternative CO2 Prices

Export Parameters Electricity Price Electricity Price

to: LCC Summary Trend relative to 2007 (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)

AEO 2010 Reference Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low

Elec 2007 31.82 31.82 31.82 10.86 10.86 10.86 2007 31.82 31.82 31.82

2007 1.00 2008 33.29 33.31 33.29 11.36 11.37 11.36 2008 33.31 33.33 33.31

2008 1.05 2009 32.33 32.44 32.27 11.04 11.07 11.01 2009 32.39 32.50 32.33

2009 1.02 2010 30.94 31.13 30.70 10.56 10.62 10.48 2010 30.92 31.11 30.68

2010 0.97 2011 29.90 30.24 29.44 10.21 10.32 10.05 2011 29.82 30.15 29.35

2011 0.94 2012 31.08 31.61 30.40 10.61 10.79 10.38 2012 31.44 31.97 30.75

2012 0.98 2013 31.47 32.11 30.68 10.74 10.96 10.47 2013 32.14 32.79 31.33

2013 0.99 2014 31.49 32.36 30.52 10.75 11.05 10.42 2014 32.18 33.08 31.20

2014 0.99 2015 31.43 32.44 30.47 10.73 11.07 10.40 2015 32.52 33.57 31.54

2015 0.99 2016 31.64 32.82 30.72 10.80 11.20 10.48 2016 32.97 34.19 32.00

2016 0.99 2017 31.80 33.11 30.70 10.85 11.30 10.48 2017 33.35 34.72 32.19

2017 1.00 2018 31.78 33.28 30.49 10.85 11.36 10.41 2018 33.56 35.15 32.20

2018 1.00 2019 31.68 33.29 30.30 10.81 11.36 10.34 2019 33.58 35.28 32.12

2019 1.00 2020 31.84 33.40 30.39 10.87 11.40 10.37 2020 33.97 35.62 32.42

2020 1.00 2021 32.01 33.55 30.62 10.92 11.45 10.45 2021 34.42 36.07 32.92

2021 1.01 2022 32.08 33.60 30.70 10.95 11.47 10.48 2022 34.71 36.36 33.22

2022 1.01 2023 32.20 33.90 30.63 10.99 11.57 10.46 2023 34.85 36.70 33.16

2023 1.01 2024 32.28 34.12 30.45 11.02 11.65 10.39 2024 35.07 37.07 33.08

2024 1.01 2025 32.26 34.05 30.34 11.01 11.62 10.36 2025 35.21 37.17 33.12

2025 1.01 2026 32.40 34.12 30.37 11.06 11.64 10.36 2026 35.86 37.77 33.61

2026 1.02 2027 32.57 34.22 30.40 11.12 11.68 10.38 2027 36.76 38.62 34.31

2027 1.02 2028 32.73 34.31 30.53 11.17 11.71 10.42 2028 37.71 39.54 35.18

2028 1.03 2029 33.13 34.63 30.92 11.31 11.82 10.55 2029 38.86 40.61 36.26

2029 1.04 2030 33.46 34.88 31.29 11.42 11.90 10.68 2030 39.78 41.47 37.20

2030 1.05 2031 $33.81 35.03 31.38 11.47 11.96 10.71 2031 $40.61 42.08 37.69

2031 1.06 2032 34.11 35.19 31.47 11.53 12.01 10.74 2032 41.39 42.69 38.19

2032 1.07 2033 34.26 35.34 31.57 11.59 12.06 10.77 2033 41.98 43.31 38.69

2033 1.08 2034 34.49 35.49 31.66 11.65 12.11 10.81 2034 42.70 43.93 39.19

2034 1.08 2035 34.71 35.65 31.75 11.70 12.17 10.84 2035 43.39 44.56 39.69

2035 1.09 2036 34.97 35.80 31.84 11.76 12.22 10.87 2036 44.30 45.24 40.24

2036 1.10 2037 35.14 35.96 31.94 11.82 12.27 10.90 2037 45.01 45.94 40.80

2037 1.10 2038 35.31 36.12 32.03 11.88 12.33 10.93 2038 45.73 46.64 41.36

2038 1.11 2039 35.49 36.27 32.12 11.94 12.38 10.96 2039 46.45 47.35 41.94

2039 1.12 2040 35.66 36.43 32.22 12.00 12.43 11.00 2040 47.19 48.08 42.52

2040 1.12 2041 35.84 36.59 32.31 12.06 12.49 11.03 2041 47.94 48.82 43.11

2041 1.13 2042 36.02 36.75 32.41 12.12 12.54 11.06 2042 48.71 49.56 43.71

2042 1.13 2043 36.19 36.91 32.50 12.17 12.60 11.09 2043 49.48 50.32 44.31

2043 1.14 2044 36.37 37.07 32.60 12.24 12.65 11.13 2044 50.27 51.09 44.93

2044 1.14 2045 36.55 37.23 32.69 12.30 12.71 11.16 2045 51.07 51.88 45.55

2045 1.15 2046 36.73 37.39 32.79 12.36 12.76 11.19 2046 51.88 52.67 46.18

2046 1.15 2047 36.92 37.56 32.88 12.42 12.82 11.22 2047 52.71 53.48 46.82

2047 1.16 2048 37.10 37.72 32.98 12.48 12.87 11.26 2048 53.55 54.30 47.47

2048 1.17 2049 37.28 37.89 33.08 12.54 12.93 11.29 2049 54.40 55.13 48.13

2049 1.17 2050 37.47 38.05 33.17 12.60 12.99 11.32 2050 55.26 55.97 48.80

2050 1.18 2051 37.65 38.22 33.27 12.67 13.04 11.36 2051 56.14 56.83 49.48

2051 1.18 2052 37.84 38.38 33.37 12.73 13.10 11.39 2052 57.04 57.70 50.16

2052 1.19

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Price (AEO2010)

Reference

High

Low

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Price Trend

AEO 2010 

Reference
Discount Rate

Distribution of Real Interest Rates REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets

Export Parameters 1st Mortgage Home Equity Credit Card Installment Loans Other Residence Other LOC Savings CD - 6mo. Treasury Corp AAA Stocks Mutual

to: LCC Summary rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt Year Accounts CDs Sav Bonds Bonds S&P 500 Fund

Discount Rate 2.6% 0.5% 0.059 0.4% 0.089 0.0% 0.055 0.0% 0.345 0.2% 0.129 0.1% 0.043 1977 -0.6% 1.2% 1.4% -12.7% -8.0% 

DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY 1.6% 0.192 1.5% 0.084 1.4% 0.019 1.4% 0.020 1.5% 0.061 1.4% 0.033 1978 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -1.0% -0.4% 

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 2.5% 0.280 2.6% 0.154 2.5% 0.019 2.4% 0.040 2.5% 0.084 2.5% 0.014 1979 0.1% -1.9% -1.5% 6.4% 3.7% 

1 Home Equity Loans (after tax) 3.7% 0.4% 42.5% 1.5% 3.5% 0.244 3.5% 0.257 3.5% 0.033 3.4% 0.053 3.5% 0.153 3.5% 0.044 1980 -0.5% -2.0% -1.4% 16.1% 10.1% 

2 Credit card 2.1% 0.0% 36.9% 14.7% 4.4% 0.147 4.5% 0.180 4.5% 0.044 4.5% 0.057 4.5% 0.149 4.5% 0.065 1981 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% -13.6% -8.1% 

3 Other Installment Loans 1.6% 0.0% 93.5% 15.6% 5.4% 0.043 5.4% 0.112 5.6% 0.061 5.6% 0.067 5.5% 0.177 5.5% 0.124 1982 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 13.4% 11.0% 

4 Other Residence Loans 5.3% 0.2% 17.9% 2.5% 6.4% 0.020 6.4% 0.047 6.7% 0.070 6.7% 0.075 6.5% 0.127 6.7% 0.094 1983 5.9% 7.7% 8.6% 18.5% 14.9% 

5 Other Line of Credit 0.5% 0.1% 54.1% 3.5% 7.4% 0.007 7.5% 0.036 7.5% 0.040 7.5% 0.033 7.5% 0.059 7.6% 0.052 1984 5.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 1.8% 3.8% 

6 Checking Accounts 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.004 8.5% 0.019 8.7% 0.060 8.6% 0.040 8.6% 0.025 8.7% 0.090 1985 5.4% 4.5% 7.0% 7.5% 26.7% 20.1% 

7 Savings and Money Market 15.3% 0.0% 4.0% 2.6% 9.5% 0.002 9.5% 0.009 9.6% 0.055 9.5% 0.037 9.4% 0.014 9.5% 0.089 1986 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0% 16.3% 12.8% 

8 CD (6 month) 8.6% -1.1% 6.1% 4.2% 10.5% 0.001 10.6% 0.006 10.6% 0.052 10.6% 0.029 10.6% 0.004 10.5% 0.068 1987 3.3% 3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% 

9 Savings Bonds (Treasury) 1.4% -2.0% 7.8% 4.1% 11.6% 0.001 11.8% 0.002 11.5% 0.058 11.5% 0.019 11.6% 0.005 11.6% 0.063 1988 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 11.9% 9.5% 

10 Bonds (Corporate AAA) 9.5% -1.5% 8.6% 1.2% 12.4% 0.001 12.7% 0.003 12.6% 0.049 12.5% 0.027 12.6% 0.004 12.5% 0.065 1989 3.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 25.4% 18.1% 

11 Stocks (S&P 500) 29.0% -38.9% 33.4% 5.1% 13.5% 0.000 13.7% 0.000 13.6% 0.044 13.5% 0.019 14.7% 0.005 13.5% 0.019 1990 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% -8.0% -4.3% 

12 Mutual Funds (stock/bond) 18.6% -25.8% 23.6% 11.2% 14.4% 0.000 14.7% 0.002 14.7% 0.087 14.7% 0.037 15.7% 0.001 14.7% 0.040 1991 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 4.4% 25.0% 17.9% 

Total 100% wt.avg. 5.2% 16.7% 0.000 16.7% 0.000 15.6% 0.074 15.6% 0.017 16.6% 0.003 15.6% 0.018 1992 2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 

22.9% 0.000 17.5% 0.000 16.4% 0.055 16.5% 0.019 17.9% 0.001 16.5% 0.027 1993 1.1% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% 

42.5% 0.001 17.6% 0.053 17.6% 0.019 17.3% 0.011 1994 1.3% 2.3% 4.7% 5.3% -1.2% 0.8% 

Finance Method # Sampled 7 18.5% 0.019 18.5% 0.012 18.5% 0.006 1995 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 33.4% 23.6% 

Real Interest Rate for that method 5% 19.4% 0.023 19.4% 0.007 19.1% 0.012 1996 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.3% 20.3% 14.7% 

20.5% 0.012 20.5% 0.007 20.2% 0.009 1997 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 28.9% 20.7% 

21.4% 0.005 21.5% 0.005 21.5% 0.007 1998 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.9% 26.4% 18.9% 

22.5% 0.003 22.3% 0.002 22.1% 0.002 1999 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 18.3% 13.4% 

23.6% 0.001 23.4% 0.003 23.5% 0.002 2000 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.1% -12.0% -7.2% 

24.6% 0.003 24.6% 0.004 25.4% 0.004 2001 1.8% 0.8% 2.6% 4.1% -14.3% -8.7% 

25.5% 0.003 25.3% 0.003 54.1% 0.002 2002 1.3% 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% -23.2% -14.2% 

26.3% 0.002 26.6% 0.000 2003 -0.2% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% 25.6% 17.9% 

27.3% 0.000 27.8% 0.000 2004 -0.7% -0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 7.8% 6.0%

28.4% 0.000 28.5% 0.000 2005 -0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3%

29.3% 0.000 29.3% 0.001 2006 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 12.0% 8.6%

36.9% 0.000 34.1% 0.000 2007 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

36.1% 0.000 2008 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 1.7% -38.9% -25.8%

43.6% 0.000 2009 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 5.7% 26.4% 19.1%

44.3% 0.000 Avg. 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.1% 7.7% 6.2%

47.2% 0.000 2 X Avg. 4.5% 4.5% 6.7% 8.2% 15.3% 12.5%

93.5% 0.000 Min -0.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -38.9% -25.8%

3.0% 100% 3.9% 100% 10.7% 100% 6.0% 100% 4.4% 100% 8.8% 100% Max 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 33.4% 23.6%

0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Std. Dev. 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.9% 11.5%

22.9% 42.5% 36.9% 93.5% 17.9% 54.1% Source: Golden West Financial Corporation, Federal Reserve, and Demodaran Online

3.5% 1.5% 14.7% 15.6% 2.5% 3.5% 

Sources: Estimate using 1989, 1992, 1998, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances
Lifetime back to Summary

Export Parameters

to: LCC Summary

Lifetime 28.2 years

Weibull Parameters:

Scale 18.82

Shape 2.183

Delay 5

Dist. 28.2

Graph Values

Age % Retiring % Surviving

0.0 0.00% 100.00%

1.0 0.00% 100.00%

2.0 0.00% 100.00%

3.0 0.00% 100.00%

4.0 0.00% 100.00%

5.0 0.00% 100.00%

6.0 0.36% 99.64%

7.0 0.81% 98.83%

8.0 1.30% 97.53%

9.0 1.79% 95.74%

10.0 2.29% 93.45%

11.0 2.76% 90.69%

12.0 3.21% 87.48%

13.0 3.61% 83.87%

14.0 3.97% 79.90%

15.0 4.27% 75.63%

16.0 4.51% 71.12%

17.0 4.68% 66.44%

18.0 4.79% 61.64%

19.0 4.84% 56.80%

20.0 4.82% 51.98%

21.0 4.75% 47.23%

22.0 4.62% 42.62%

23.0 4.44% 38.18%

24.0 4.23% 33.95%

25.0 3.98% 29.97%

26.0 3.71% 26.26%

27.0 3.42% 22.84%

28.0 3.12% 19.72%

29.0 2.82% 16.90%

30.0 2.53% 14.37%

31.0 2.24% 12.12%

32.0 1.97% 10.15%

33.0 1.72% 8.43%

34.0 1.48% 6.95%

35.0 1.27% 5.69%

36.0 1.07% 4.62%

37.0 0.90% 3.72%

38.0 3.72% 0.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0


5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% Surviving

% Retiring












EStarModel back to Summary

Age 0 to 2 Years

Income Group % Total Prob. E*

1 4,440 0.6% 15% Low Income Income Group

2 432,729 60.0% 29% Med Income 1

3 283,532 39.3% 42% High Income 2

Total 720,701 100.0% 3

Wt.avg Prob. E* 34%

Age 2 to 4 Years

Income Group % Total Prob. E*

1 58,479 4.6% 15% Low Income

2 563,021 44.6% 29% Med Income

3 642,257 50.8% 42% High Income

Total 1,263,758 100.0%

Wt.avg Prob. E* 35%

Income Group

Age 5 to 10 Years 1

Income Group % Total Prob. E* 2

1 251,653 12.0% 15% Low Income 3

2 889,127 42.4% 29% Med Income

3 957,826 45.6% 42% High Income random # (0-1)

Total 2,098,606 100.0%

Wt.avg Prob. E* 33%

Year 2005 2004 2003 Mapping from MONEYPY to Income Group

Age 0 1 2 MONEYPY Income Group

E* sales 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 1 1

Scale 29% 29% 29% 2 1

15% 4% 4% 4% 3 1

29% 9% 9% 8% 4 1

42% 12% 12% 12% 5 1

checksum 10.0% 9.8% 10.0% 6 2

7 2

8 2

9 2

10 2

11 2

12 2

13 2

14 2

Year 2005 2004 2003 15 3

Age 0 1 2 16 3

FALSE FALSE FALSE 17 3

FALSE FALSE FALSE 18 3

FALSE FALSE FALSE 19 3

20 3

0.31 21 3

22 3

23 3

24 3