ANALYSIS OF CLOTHES WASHER 

SHIPMENTS 

James E. McMahon, LBNL 

DOE Workshop 

December 15, 1998 

1 
Clothes Washer Shipments 

• Major Drivers 

- Replacing existing clothes washers 

- New housing construction 

• Economic factors 

- washer prices 

- operating expenses 

3/11-12/98 

2 
New housing construction 

• 1.3-2.1 million housing units are added per year 

• 7 4-90°/o of new housing units have residential 

clothes washers, depending upon house· vintage 

( 1980-1993) 

• Estimate new housing accounts for about 1-1.6 

million residential clothes washers per year, 

depending on the year (1981-1996) 

• 19-33% of annual residential clothes washer 

shipments are to new housing 

3 
Life expectancy of clothes washers 

• Clothes washers have lifetimes ranging 

from 12 to 16 years ( 14 year average) 

• Using lifetime distributions and historical 

shipments, the replacement market is. 

estimated to account for 63-85% of total 

shipments, depending on the year 

4 
Actual and Estimated Shipments 

Residential Clothes Washers 

r--------·----

1 7 

~ 

= 0 

-

= 

6 

5 

~ 3 -

2 -

o_ 

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 

_______ __J 

5 
Estimates of Clothes Washers 

Shipments are within 11 o/o of Actual 

. -·-------·-~-- -I 

120% -

I 

110% 

Total Shipment (lOOo/o) I 

! 

100% 

90%. 

80% 

-~ 70% -

= ...,,. 

~ 

< 60% 

~ 

0 

~ 50% ~ 

40% 

30% 

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -------- ---~----- ---·-·-·-----------··-·-·----~---

6 
Consumer Economic Factors 

• Purchase expenses: typically about $420 clothes 

washer (baseline retail price). 

• Operating expenses: average $126 per year 

- Energy expenses: average $78 per year 

including water heating and cloth~s drying, 

averaged over water heaters and clothes 

dryers of different fuel com_binations. 

- Water expenses: average $48 per year for 

water and wastewater rates. 

7 
Elasticities for clothes washers 

• An elasticity is the percent change in a quantity 

(such as shipments or market share) associated 

with a percent change in a driving factor 

• Driving factors may include: 

- Operating expense 

- Purchase expense 

• Previous research indicated that market shares 

by fuel types were related to operating expenses: 

- Based on elasticity for refrigerators 

- Elasticity: -0.2 

8 
To derive clothes washer 

elasticities 

• New data and further analysis are needed. 

• See Consumer Analysis. 

9 
MA H 

Interim results: 

.~roj!Pte«! shiements1' 

• Projections are within 11°/o of historical total 

shipments of clothes washers, based on: 

- replacement (historical shipments and life expectancy 

of existing clothes washers) 

- new housing construction 

• New factors will include: 

- consumer response to economic factors (elasticities) 

- future energy prices 

- new energy efficiency standards 

10 
flj 

.... e = 

--

~ 

10 -

I 

I 9 I I 

8 ~ I 

7 

6 

5 I 

4 

3 .. 

2 

1 

Projected clothes washer 

. shipments 

Historical (1957-1996) 

_...,_ Accounting 

History 

.. 

Projected 

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 

11 
Conclusions: Future Shipments 

• Accounting for replacement sales and new housing 

construction provides projection of future shipments 

• Economic factors will be addressed using elasticities 

to characterize consumer response to: 

- clothes washer price 

- operating expenses