DOE/EA-1530



## ENVIRONMENTAL, ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARD S FOR RESIDENTIAL,

FURNACES AN BOILERS

September 2006

U.S. Department of Energy Assistant Secretary Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Building Technologies Program Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards Washington, DC 20585 DOE/EA-lS30



## ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FORPROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

September 2006

u.S. Department ofEnergy Assistant Secretary Office ofEnergy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Building Technologies Program Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards Washington, DC 20585ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................... EA-1 2.0 PURPOSE AND NEED ............................................... EA-2 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING THE PROPOSED ACTION ................ EA-2 3.1 No-Action Alternative .......................................... EA-2 3.2 Proposed Action ............................................... EA-3 3.3 Alternative Standards ........................................... EA-3 4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT .................... EA-4 4.1 Geography ................................................... EA-4 4.2 Air Resources ................................................. EA-4 4.2.1 Assumptions ............................................ EA-5 4.2.2 Methods ............................................... EA-6 4.3 Socioeconomics ............................................... EA-8 4.4 Environmental Justice .......................................... EA-8 4.5 Energy Consumption ........................................... EA-8 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics ........................................... EA-8 4.7 Indoor Air Environment ......................................... EA-8 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ........................................ EA-9 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts ................................... EA-9 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions ...................... EA-9 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions ................................... EA-17 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources .... EA-18 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts ........................................ EA-18 5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts .................................. EA-18 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts ................................... EA-18 5.6 Noise and Aesthetics .......................................... EA-19 5.7 Indoor Air Environment ........................................ EA-19 5.8 Summary of Environmental Impacts .............................. EA-19 LIST OF TABLES Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces

and Boilers, Base Case .......................................... EA-2 Table EA.2 Proposed Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ......... EA-3 Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers ............. EA-4 Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Metric Tons) .............. EA-11 Table EA.5 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ...... EA-12 Table EA.6 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to

the Base Case ................................................ EA-13 Table EA.7 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to
EA-i 

### ENVIRONMENTALASSESSMENT FORPROPOSED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION

................................................. " EA-l 2.0 PURPOSE AND NEED
............................................. " EA-2 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING THE PROPOSED ACTION

................ EA-2 3.1 No-Action Alternative

........................................ " EA-2 3.2 Proposed Action

............................................. " EA-3 3.3 Alternative Standards

......................................... " EA-3 4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT

.................. " EA-4 4.1 Geography

................................................. " EA-4 4.2 Air Resources
............................................... " EA-4 4.2.1 Assumptions............................................ EA-5 4.2.2 Methods

............................................... EA-6 4.3 Socioeconomics

............................................. " EA-8 4.4 Environmental Justice

.......................................... EA-8 4.5 Energy Consumption

......................................... " EA-8 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics

........................................... EA-8 4.7 Indoor Air Environment

....................................... " EA-8 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

...................................... " EA-9 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts
................................... EA-9 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions

.................... " EA-9 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions

................................... EA-17 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources
.... EA-18 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts
........................................ EA-18 5.4 EnvironmentalJustice Impacts
.................................. EA-18 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts
................................... EA-18 5.6 Noise and Aesthetics

.......................................... EA-19 5.7 Indoor Air Environment

........................................ EA-19 5.8 Summary ofEnvironmental Impacts
.............................. EA-19

Table EA.1 Table EA.2 Table EA.3 Table EA.4 Table EA.5 Table EA.6 Table EA.7 LIST OF TABLES Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers, Base Case

........................................ " EA-2 Proposed Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

......... EA-3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers

........... " EA-4 Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast (Metric Tons)

.............. EA-11 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

...... EA-12 Cumulative Power SectorEmissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. EA-13 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to
EA-ithe Base Case ............................................... EA-14

Table EA.8 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast,

Relative to the Base Case ' ...................................... EA-15 Table EA.9 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts

Forecast, Relative to the Base Case ............................... EA-16 Table EA. 10 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages To Table EA.11 Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions
.........................

Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers EA-17 Standards from 2015 to 2038 .................................... EA-19 Table EA. 12 Summary of the Analysis Results ................................ EA-20 

### the Base Case

............................................... EA-14 Table EA.8 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case l

...................................... 

### EA-15 Table EA.9 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

............................... EA-16 Table EA.l0 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages To Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions

......................... EA-17 Table EA.ll Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038

.................................... EA-19 Table EA.12 Summary ofthe Analysis Results

................................ EA-20

EA-iiABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AEO: Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA publication ANOPR: Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking ASHRAE: American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. BT: DOE's Building Technologies program Btu: British thermal unit CO2: carbon dioxide DOE or Department : Department of Energy EA: Environmental Assessment EIA: Energy Information Administration EJ: exajoule (1018 joules) EPA: Environmental Protection Agency EPCA: Energy Policy and Conservation Act: Part B of Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended by the National Energy Conservation Policy Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486 FR: Federal Register GJ: gigajoule (109 joules) GW: gigawatt (109 watts) kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year) kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts per hour) LCC: life-cycle cost Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year)
EA-iii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AEO: 

### AnnualEnergy Outlook, DOE/EIApublication ANOPR: Advance Notice ofProposed Rulemaking ASHRAE: American Society ofHeating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. BT: DOE's Building Technologies program Btu: British thermal unit CO2: carbon dioxide DOE orDepartment: Department ofEnergy EA: Environmental Assessment EIA: Energy Information Administration EJ: exajoule (10 18joules) EPA: Environmental Protection Agency EPCA: Energy Policy and ConservationAct: Part B ofTitle III ofthe Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163, as amended bythe National Energy Conservation Policy Act, Public Law 95-619, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act, Public Law 100-12, the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, Public Law 100-357, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Public Law 102-486 FR: Federal Register GJ: gigajoule (l09joules) GW: gigawatt (109 watts) kt/a: kilo (thousand) metric tons per annum (year) kWh: kilowatt-hour (thousand watts perhour) LCC: life-cycle cost Mt/a: million metric tons per annum (year)
EA-iiiMW: megawatt (million watts)

NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act NEMS: National Energy Modeling System NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 NES: National Energy Savings NOX: nitrogen oxides PBP: payback period quad: quadrillion Btu (1015 Btus) RIA: Regulatory Impact Analysis SO2: sulfur dioxide t: metric ton TSL: Trial Standard Level TSD: Technical Support Document U.S.C.: United States Code 

### MW: megawatt (million watts) NAECA: National Appliance Energy Conservation Act NEMS: National Energy Modeling System NEPA: National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 NES: National Energy Savings NOx : 

### nitrogen oxides PBP: paybackperiod quad: quadrillion Btu (1015 

### Btus) RIA: Regulatory Impact Analysis S02: sulfur dioxide 

### t: metric ton TSL: Trial Standard Level TSD: Technical Support Document U.S.C.: United States Code

EA-ivENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

1.0 INTRODUCTION The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE or Department) prepared this residential furnace and boiler environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA)(42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (40 CFR parts 1500-1508), and the DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA (10 CFR part 1021 Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (SPCA) sets forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part B of title III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products other than Automobiles. The program covers consumer products and certain commercial products (all of which are referred to hereafter as "covered products") including residential furnaces and boilers. EPCA authorizes the Department to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces and boilers. (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) EPCA provides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards for covered products. As indicated above, any new or amended standard for a covered product must be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A)). EPCA precludes the Department from adopting any standard that would not result in significant conservation of energy. (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(3)) On June 13, 2001, the Department published a Framework Document for Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards Rulemaking' that described the procedural and analytical approaches available to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers. The Department held a Framework Workshop on July 17, 2001, to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for use in this rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the rulemaking process, and to seek their comments on the Framework Document. On July 29, 2004, after considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOE published in the Federal Register an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicit public comments on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 69 FR 45419 DOE held a public meeting on September 29, 2004, to present the methodology and results of the ANOPR analyses, and to solicit oral comments from the stakeholders in attendance. Subsequently revised the analysis and prepared a NOPR, of which the Environmental Assessment is a part.

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FORRESIDENTIAL FURNACES AND BOILERS

1.0 INTRODUCTION The

## u.s. Department ofEnergy (DOE orDepartment) prepared this residential furnace and boiler environmental assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA)(42 U.S.c. 4321 etseq.), the regulations ofthe Council on Environmental Quality (40 CFRparts 1500-1508), and the DOE's regulations for compliance with NEPA (10 CFRpart 1021). Title III ofthe Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) sets forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. PartB oftitle III (42 U.S.C 6291-6309) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products other than Automobiles. The program covers consumerproducts and certain commercial products (all ofwhich are referred to hereafter as "coveredproducts") including residential furnaces and boilers. EPCA authorizes the Department to prescribe new or amended standards for residential furnaces and boilers. (42 U.S.C 6292(a)(f)) EPCAprovides criteria for prescribing new or amended standards for covered products. As indicated above, any new or amended standard for a coveredproduct must be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A)). EPCA precludes the Department from adopting any standard that would not result in significant conservation ofenergy. (42 U.S.C 6295(0)(3)) On June 13, 2001, the Departmentpublished a FrameworkDocument forResidential Furnaces andBoilers Standards Rulemaking' that described the procedural and analytical approaches available to evaluate energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers. The Departmentheld a FrameworkWorkshop on July 17,2001,to discuss the procedural and analytical approaches for use in this rulemaking, to inform and facilitate stakeholders' involvement in the rulemaking process, and to seek their comments on the FrameworkDocument. OnJuly 29,2004, after considering the stakeholder comments about the technical analysis, DOE published in the Federal Register an Advance Notice ofProposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) to solicit public comments on its preliminary analyses concerning energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers. 69 FR45419 DOE held a public meeting on September 29,2004, to presentthe methodology and results ofthe ANOPR analyses, and to solicit oral comments from the stakeholders in attendance. Subsequently revised the analysis and prepared a NOPR, ofwhich the Environmental Assessment is a part.

EA-l2.0 PURPOSE AND NEED In proposing the action described in the NOPR the Department is responding to the requirements of Title III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (SPCA), which sets forth a variety of provisions designed to achieve the goal of improving the energy efficiency of consumer products. Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum efficiency standard, not in deciding if there should be one. More stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result in saving energy. The metric used to measure the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers is the Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE). An increase in the AFUE indicates that the furnace or boiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis of increased efficiency levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and Boiler Technical Support Document (TSD) that accompanies DOE's NOPR for the proposed standards.' 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING THE PROPOSED ACTION The Department analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting of the four TSLs identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative

. As discussed above, DOE's proposed action is to adopt TSL 2. The five alternatives are discussed below. 3.1 No-Action Alternative Under a no-action alternative, DOE would not publish new minimum energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers, and the efficiency standards would remain at current levels (Table EA.2). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on January 1, 1992, with the exception of the standard for mobile home furnaces, for which the effective date was September 1, 1990. DOE also refers to the no-action alternative as a base case. Table EA.1 Current Energy Efficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and

Boilers, Base Case NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % 78 78 75 78 80 80 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler

EA-2 2.0 PURPOSE AND NEED Inproposing the action described in the NOPRthe Department is responding to the requirements ofTitle III ofthe Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), which sets forth a variety ofprovisions designed to achieve the goal ofimproving the energy efficiency of consumerproducts. Consistent with the EPCA requirements described in section 1.0, DOE exercises its discretion in deciding the level for a minimum efficiency standard, not in deciding ifthere shouldbe one. More stringent energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers will result in saving energy. The metric usedto measure the efficiency ofresidential furnaces and boilers is the Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE). An increase in the AFUE indicates that the furnace orboiler is more efficient. Details on the technical analysis of increased efficiency levels are provided in the Residential Furnace and BoilerTechnical Support Document (TSD) that accompanies DOE's NOPR for the proposed standards. 2 3.0 ALTERNATIVES INCLUDINGTHE PROPOSED ACTION The Department analyzed five alternative standards levels consisting ofthe four TSLs identified in the NOPR and a no-action alternative. As discussed above, DOE's proposed action is to adopt TSL 2. The five alternatives are discussed below. 3.1 No-Action Alternative Under a no-action alternative, DOE would not publish new minimum energy efficiency standards for residential furnaces and boilers, and the efficiency standards wouldremain at current levels (Table EA.2). (42 U.S.C 6295(f)(1)) The current standards went into effect on January 1, 1992, with the exception ofthe standard for mobile home furnaces, for whichthe effective date was September 1, 1990. DOE also refers to the no-action alternative as a base case. Table EA.1 CurrentEnergyEfficiency Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers, Base Case NWGF WGF AFUE% AFUE% 78 78 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler MHF OF GB OB AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 75 78 80 80

EA-2The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy

efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential furnaces and boilers that it determines is technologically feasible and economically justified. 42 U.S.C 6295(o)(2)(A) Notwithstanding, DOE addresses the no-action alternative in the TSD, including the Residential Furnaces and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), as well as other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs. 3.2 Proposed Action The DOE's proposed action is to adopt TSL 2 (see Table EA

.2). Doe selected this level on the basis of national energy savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e., monetary savings to the Nation exceed increased equipment costs to the Nation), and air-borne emissions reductions. In analyzing improvements in the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, DOE defined five trial standard levels (TSLs). Each TSL consists of a combination of different AFUE levels applied to six different product classes. Of the five TSLs, DOE proposes to adopt TSL 2. Table EA.1 summarizes the proposed standard levels. Table EA.2 Proposed Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % 80 83 80 82 84 83 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler 3.3 Alternative Standards This EA also examines four other TSLs besides those from DOE's proposed action (TSL2) and the no action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a situation where no new amended standards are proposed. The TSL 1 is less stringent than DOE's proposed action (TSL 2), while TSLs 3 and 4 are more stringent than TSL 2. Each TSL has a unique combination of AFUE efficiency levels for each product class. The TSLs, including DOE's proposed action, are shown in Table EA.3.

EA-3 

### The no-action alternative is contrary to the requirement to amend the statutory energy efficiency standards to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency for residential furnaces and boilers that it determines is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. 42 U.S.C 6295(0)(2)(A) Notwithstanding, DOE addresses the no-action alternative in the TSD, including the Residential Furnaces and Boilers Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), as well as other non-regulatory policy cases and voluntary incentive programs. 3.2 Proposed Action 

### The DOE'sproposed action is to adopt TSL 2 (see Table EA.2). Doe selected this level on the basis ofnational energy savings, reduced average life-cycle costs (LCC) to consumers, a net national benefit (i.e., monetary savings to the Nation exceed increased equipment costs to the Nation), and air-borne emissions reductions. In analyzing improvements in the efficiency ofresidential furnaces and boilers, DOE defined five trial standard levels (TSLs). Each TSL consists ofa combination ofdifferent AFUE levels applied to six different product classes. Ofthe five TSLs, DOE proposes to adopt TSL 2. Table EA.1 summarizes the proposed standard levels. T hI EA2 P



### a e 

# . roposed S d d L I £ R'd . IF tan ar 

### eve s or eSI entIa NWGF WGF 

### AFUE% AFUE% 80 83 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler 3.3 Alternative Standards MHF OF 

### AFUE% AFUE% 80 82 urnaces andB il o ers GB OB 

### AFUE% AFUE% 84 83

This EA also examines four other TSLs besides those from DOE'sproposed action (TSL 2) and the no action alternative. Each TSL is an alternative action, and is compared with the noaction alternative. The no-action alternative, also referred to as the base case, represents a situation where no new amended standards are proposed. The TSL 1is less stringent than DOE's proposed action (TSL 2), while TSLs 3 and 4 are more stringent than TSL 2. Each TSL has a unique combination ofAFUE efficiency levels for each product class. The TSLs, including DOE's proposed action, are shown in Table EA.3.

EA-3Table EA.3 Trial Standard Levels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers NWGF WGF MHF OF GB OB Trial Standard Levels AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % AFUE % TSL 1 80 80 80 80 82 83 TSL 2 80 83 80 82 84 83 TSL 3 81 83 81 82 84 83 TSL 4 90 83 90 84 84 84 TSL 5 96 83 90 85 99 95 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler
4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT 4.1 Geography The residential furnaces and boilers standards that DOE has proposed would apply to all 50 states and United States territories. 4.2 Air Resources To analyze the effect of proposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used a variant of the DOE Energy Information Administration's (DOE/EIA) National Energy Modeling System (HEMS), called NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies Program)'. The environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSW Outputs of the environmental analysis are in a format similar to the results of the DOE/EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AE02005).3 For each trial standard level, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from NEMS-BT. Household emissions are also calculated, although exogenous to

' The EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS. EA-4 

### Table EA.3 Trial StandardLevels for Residential Furnaces and Boilers NWGF Trial Standard Levels AFUE% TSL 1 80 TSL2 80 TSL3 81 TSL4 90 TSL5 96 Product Class List: NWGF = Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace WGF = Weatherized Gas Furnace MHF = Mobile Home Gas Furnace OF = Oil-fired Furnace GB = Gas Boiler OB = Oil-fired Boiler 

### WGF MHF OF AFUE% AFUE% AFUE% 80 80 80 83 80 82 83 81 82 83 90 84 83 90 85

4.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT 4.1 Geography GB AFUE% 82 84 84 84 99 OB AFUE% 83 83 83 84 95

The residential furnaces and boilers standards that DOE has proposed would apply to all 50 states and United States territories. 4.2 Air Resources To analyze the effect ofproposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used a variant ofthe DOE Energy Information Administration's (DOE/EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), called NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building Technologies ProgramY. The environmental analysis is similar to the utility sector analysis described in Chapter 13 ofthe Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD.2 Outputs ofthe environmental analysis are in a format similar to the results ofthe DOE/EIA'sAnnualEnergy Outlook2005 (AE02005P For each trial standard level, DOE calculated total power sector emissions based on output from NEMS-BT. Household emissions are also calculated, although exogenous to

a The EIA approves use ofthe name NEMS to describe only an official version ofthe model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it as NEMS-BT. NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS. EA-4NEMS-BT. The EA considers two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulfur dioxide (SO2),

and one emission, carbon dioxide (CO2). An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the environment. Pollutants may be natural or man-made and may take the form of solid particles, liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to control. The EPA has set national air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as "criteria" pollutants), two of which are SO2 and NOR. Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave authority to EPA to control acidification and require operators of electric power plants to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOR. In addressing SO2 emissions, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. Moreover, SO2 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical SO2 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement of the emissions ceiling.
4.2.1 Assumptions The Department conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified AEO2005 Reference Case, using thesame basic set of assumptions in NEMS. The emissions characteristics of all electricitygenerating plants are exactly as used in AE02005. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD (Chapter 13).2 The Department derived the environmental impacts using the same higher decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis. As in the utility impact analysis, the Department substituted the default NEMS system load with a system load that represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY system load. As a result, the reference case used to judge the impacts from a proposed residential furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication of the AE02005 Reference Case and is therefore referred to as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for the proposed standard level, using the High and Low Economic Growth scenarios of NEMS-BT. As described in Chapter 13 of the TSD2' these scenarios cover a range of macroeconomic growth assumptions. All environmental impact results include a 15 percent rebound effect which is already accounted for in the national energy savings inputs. NEMS-BT. The EA considers two pollutants, nitrogen oxides (NOJ and sulfur dioxide (S02)' and one emission, carbon dioxide (C02 ), An airpollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans orthe environment. Pollutants may be natural or man-made and may take the form ofsolid particles, liquid droplets, or gases. The Clean Air ActAmendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pollutants that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to control. The EPA has set national air quality standards for six commonpollutants (also referred to as "criteria" pollutants), two ofwhich are S02 and NOx' Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave authority to EPA to control acidification and require operators ofelectric power plants to reduce emissions ofS02 and NOx' In addressing S02 emissions, the Clean AirAct Amendments of 1990 set an S02 emissions cap on all power generation, butpermitted flexibility among generators through the use ofemissions allowances and tradable permits. Moreover, S02 trading implies that physical emissions effects ofa standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement ofthe emissions ceiling.


### 4.2.1 Assumptions The Department conducted the EA as a policy deviation from the Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) System Load Reference Case, a modified

### AE02005Reference Case, using the same basic set ofassumptions in NEMS. The emissions characteristics ofall electricitygenerating plants are exactly as used 

### inAE02005. The TMY System Load Reference Case and alternative growth scenarios are as described in the utility impact analysis ofthe Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD (Chapter 13).2 The Department derived the environmental impacts using the same higher decrement approach described in the utility impact analysis. As in the utility impact analysis, the Department substituted the default NEMS system load with a system load that represents weather conditions for a TMY, which is here referred to as the TMY system load. As a result, the reference case used tojudge the impacts from a proposed residential furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication ofthe 

### AE02005 Reference Case and is therefore referred to as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The EA also includes a sensitivity analysis for the proposed standard level, using the High and Low Economic Growth scenarios ofNEMS-BT. As described in Chapter 13 ofthe TSD2 ,these scenarios cover a range ofmacroeconomic growth assumptions.

All environmental impact results include a 15 percent rebound effect which is already accounted for in the national energy savings inputs.

EA-54.2.2 Methods

4.2.2.1 CO

Z The NEMS-BT tracks CO, emissions using a detailed CO2 module that features broad coverage of all sectors and inclusion of interactive effects. Past experience with CO2 emissions results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reduction generated by NEMS are somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One of the reasons for thisdivergence is that NEMS tends to predict that energy conservation displaces more energyefficient generating capacity in the later years of its forecast. 4.2.2.2 Power Sector NOx The Department evaluates emissions of two airborne pollutants, SO2 and NO, The NEMS-BT estimates NOX emissions from power generation by conforming to all current legislation regarding the power facility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including potential installations of emissions-reducing equipment. On March 10, 2005, EPA issued the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). CAIR will permanently cap emissions of NOx across 28 eastern states and the District of Columbia. 70 FR 25162 (May 12, 2005). As with SO2 emissions, a cap on NOX emissions would possibly result in no physical emissions effects from equipment efficiency standards in the affected states. When NOX emissions are subject to emissions caps, the Department's emissions reduction estimate corresponds to incremental changes in emissions allowance credits in cap-and-trade emissions markets rather than physical emissions reductions. 4.2.2.3 Power Sector SOZ As explained above, accurate simulation of S02 trading tends to imply that physical emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are at the ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not report SO2 results here. 4.2.2.4 Household Emissions While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions of NO,, and SO2 from power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural gas, oil, and LPG, the residential sector also contributes to NOX and SO2 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates of the effect of standards on household NOX and SO2 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature. Although small, household SO2 emissions savings are reported because the SO2 emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed description of the methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustion processes in residential furnaces and boilers.

EA-6 

### 4.2.2 Methods 4.2.2.1 CO2 The NEMS-BT tracks CO2emissions using a detailed CO2module that features broad coverage ofall sectors and inclusion ofinteractive effects. Past experience with CO2emissions results from NEMS suggests that the estimated emissions reduction generatedbyNEMS are somewhat lower than estimates based on simple average factors. One ofthe reasons for this divergence is thatNEMS tends to predictthat energy conservation displaces more energyefficient generating capacity in the later years ofits forecast. 

### 4.2.2.2 PowerSector

### NO x The Department evaluates emissions oftwo airborne pollutants, S02 andNOx ' The NEMS-BT estimates NOx emissions from power generationby conforming to all current legislationregarding the power facility development, retrofitting, and dispatch, including potential installations ofemissions-reducing equipment. On March 

### 10,2005, EPA issued the CleanAirInterstate Rule (CAIR). CAIRwill permanently cap emissions ofNOx across 28 eastern states and the District ofColumbia. 

### 70 FR 

### 25162 (May 

### 12,2005). As with S02 emissions, a cap onNOx emissions wouldpossibly result in no physical emissions effects from equipment efficiency standards in the affected states. When NOx emissions are subject to emissions caps, the Department's emissions reduction estimate corresponds to incremental changes in emissions allowance credits in cap-and-trade emissions markets rather thanphysical emissions reductions. 

### 4.2.2.3 PowerSectorS02 As explained above, accurate simulation ofS02 trading tends to imply that physical emissions effects will be zero, as long as emissions are at the ceiling. Therefore, DOE does not report S02 results here. 

### 4.2.2.4 HouseholdEmissions While NEMS-BT contains provisions for estimating emissions ofNOx and S02 from power generation, it does not estimate household emissions. Because households use natural gas, oil, and LPG, the residential sector also contributes to NOx and S02 emissions. This analysis therefore includes separate estimates ofthe effect ofstandards onhousehold NOx and S02 emissions, based on simple emissions factors derived from the literature. Although small, household S02 emissions savings are reported because the S02 emissions caps do not apply to the residential sector. Appendix W provides a detailed description ofthe methodology and sources for deriving the emissions factors for combustionprocesses inresidential furnaces and boilers.

EA-64.2.2.5 Fuel- Cycle Emissions Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the amount of energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant. The NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting of emissions at the power plant due to downstream energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy use during coal and natural gas production). The upstream processes include the mining of coal or extraction of natural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to the power plant (see section 5.1.2 for further discussion). 4.2.2.6 Interpolation Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to produce stable power sector results in NEMS-BT, DOE estimated results for the TSLs using interpolation. This is similar to the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results. Appendix U of the Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology in detail.2 4.2.2.7 Extrapolation The current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2025 (modeling a 10-year period, 2015-2025), yet other parts of the appliance energy-efficiency work reach 2038. To address this concern, the Department has developed an adjunct version of the NEMS model called NEMS-BT2 that is capable, although in limited form, to model to year 2050. As with the AE02005 Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not change from the current, known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. The NEMS-BT2 2050 extension model based on the 2004 version of NEMS-BT was developed by OnLocation, Inc., under a subcontract to the Department. Extensive code and input file changes were required to allow NEMS-BT2 to run to 2050, unfortunately rendering it impossible to extend the 2005 version. Therefore, the Department used the 2005 version of NEMS-BT to conduct the analysis through 2025 and the 2004 NEMS-BT2 2050 extension to conduct the analysis from 2026-2038. Some assumptions and adjustments were required to ease the transition from year 2025 to 2026, thereby removing the inherent differences between these two versions of the model (see Appendix V for discussion). To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT output.

4.2.2.8Discounting Emissions DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. The Department used the same discount rates that it used in calculating the NPV (seven percent and three percent real) to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven

-percent and three-percent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value of costs and benefits associated with projects facing an average degree of risk. Other discount rates may be more applicable to

EA-7 4.2.2.5 Fuel-CycleEmissions Fuel-cycle emissions refer to all the emissions associated with the amount ofenergy used in the upstream and downstream production ofenergy, including energy used at the powerplant. The NEMS-BT does a thorough accounting ofemissions at the powerplant due to downstream energy consumption, but does not account for upstream emissions (i.e., emissions from energy use during coal and natural gas production). The upstream processes include the mining ofcoal or extraction ofnatural gas, physical preparatory and cleaning processes, and transportation to the powerplant (see section 5.1.2 for further discussion). 4.2.2.6 Interpolation Because the energy savings from residential furnace and boiler standards are too small to produce stable power sectorresults inNEMS-BT, DOE estimated results for the TSLs using interpolation. This is similar to the process it used to estimate the utility impact analysis results. Appendix U ofthe Residential Furnace and Boiler TSD describes the interpolation methodology in detai1. 2 4.2.2.7 Extrapolation The current time horizon ofNEMS-BT is 2025 (modeling a lO-year period, 2015-2025), yet otherparts ofthe appliance energy-efficiency workreach 2038. To address this concern, the Departmenthas developed an adjunct version ofthe NEMS model called NEMS-BT2 that is capable, although in limited form, to model to year 2050. As with the

### AE02005 Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not change from the current, known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes thathave been announced with date-certain introduction are included inNEMS-BT. The NEMS-BT2 2050 extension model based onthe 2004 version ofNEMS-BT was developed by OnLocation, Inc., under a subcontract to the Department. Extensive code and input file changes were required to allow NEMS-BT2 to run to 2050, unfortunately rendering it impossible to extend the 2005 version. Therefore, the Departmentused the 2005 version ofNEMS-BT to conduct the analysis through 2025 and the 2004 NEMS-BT2 2050 extension to conduct the analysis from 2026-2038. Some assumptions and adjustments were required to ease the transition from year 2025 to 2026, thereby removing the inherent differences between these two versions ofthe model (see Appendix V for discussion). To emphasize the extrapolatedresults wherever they appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT output. 4.2.2.8DiscountingEmissions DOE also calculated discounted avoided emissions results. The Departmentused the same discount rates that it used in calculating the NPV (seven percent and three percentreal) to calculate discounted cumulative emission reductions. The seven-percent and three-percent real discount rate values are meant to capture the present value ofcosts andbenefits associated with projects facing an average degree ofrisk. Other discount rates may be more applicable to
EA-7discount costs and benefits associated with projects facing different risks and uncertainties.

4.3 Socioeconomics As part of the rulemaking process, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards for non-weatherized gas furnaces on senior and low-income households, sub-groups that DOE identified as possibly being disproportionately affected by a national standard level. The Department is especially concerned that increases in the purchase price of equipment could have negative impacts on these groups that may not be able to afford significant increases in equipment price. The analysis on consumer sub-groups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the payback periods for the four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more details on the sub-group analysis.' 4.4 Environmental Justice A consideration of Environmental Justice is made pursuant to the Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The Executive Order requires federal agencies to assess whether a proposed federal action causes any disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or minority populations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects of standards on low-income households. 4.5 Energy Consumption The Department used a detailed Shipments and National Energy Savings (NES) Spreadsheet Model to determine national energy savings as a result of increases in furnaces and boilers efficiency standards. This spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energy use of residential furnaces and boiler with and without new standards. The shipments and NES analyses are described in detail in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.' The NES results include a 15 percent rebound effect. 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics The Department considered how amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers would affect the noise and aesthetics of the equipment. To improve the efficiency of residential furnaces and boilers, some design changes can enlarge the size of the equipment or necessitate the use of more efficient motors and fans. The Department determined if noise and aesthetics were impacted by these design changes. 4.7 Indoor Air Environment The Department considered how amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers would affect the indoor air environment. The Department considered the potential for furnace and boiler standards to pose public health risks due to carbon monoxide

EA-8 discount costs and benefits associated with projects facing different risks and uncertainties. 

### 4.3 Socioeconomics As part ofthe rulemaking process, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects ofstandards for non-weatherized gas furnaces on senior and low-income households, sub-groups that DOE identified as possibly being disproportionately affected by a national standard level. The Department is especially concerned that increases in the purchase price ofequipment could have negative impacts on these groups that may not be able to afford significant increases in equipmentprice. The analysis on consumer sub-groups included determining the differences in LCC as well as the paybackperiods for the four TSLs analyzed. Chapter 11 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD provides more details on the sub-group analysis.2 

### 4.4 EnvironmentalJustice A consideration ofEnvironmental Justice is made pursuant to the Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. The Executive Orderrequires federal agencies to assess whether a proposed federal action causes any disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income or minority populations. As mentioned above, DOE evaluated the socioeconomic effects ofstandards on low-income households. 

### 4.5 Energy 

### Consumption The Departmentused a detailed Shipments andNational Energy Savings (NES) SpreadsheetModel to determine national energy savings as a result ofincreases in furnaces and boilers efficiency standards. This spreadsheet model forecasts the national shipments and energy use ofresidential furnaces and boiler with and without new standards. The shipments and NES analyses are described in detail in Chapters 9 and 10, respectively, ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.2 TheNES results include a 15 percent rebound effect. 

### 4.6 Noise and Aesthetics The Department consideredhow amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers would affect the noise and aesthetics ofthe equipment. To improve the efficiency ofresidential furnaces andboilers, some design changes can enlarge the size ofthe equipment ornecessitate the use ofmore efficient motors and fans. The Department determined ifnoise and aesthetics were impacted bythese design changes. 

### 4.7 Indoor Air Environment The Department consideredhow amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces and boilers would affect the indoor air environment. The Department considered the potential for furnace and boiler standards to pose public health risks due to carbon monoxide
EA-8release into the home as a result of venting system failure.

5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run as published in the AEO, and include power sector emissions for NO,, and CO2 in five-year forecast increments extrapolated to the year 2038. The Department reports the outcome of the analysis for each TSL as a deviation from the TMY System Load Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base case, as well as the no-action alternative. As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an SO2 emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits. Moreover, SO2 trading implies that physical emissions effects of a standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement of the emissions ceiling. An economic benefit may result if coal generation falls and the resulting reduced demand for SO2 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the SO2 effects considered here are too small to provide reasonable estimates of impacts on allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate this benefit. If this price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, the Department will report this value in future appliance standards rulemakings. Table EA.4 shows annual total power sector CO2 and NO,, emissions for the base case (no-action alternative) and each of the five TSLs. Table EA.5 shows the annual results for the household emissions and shows the High and Low Economic Growth scenario results for TSL 2, the proposed action. Table EA.6 shows the cumulative power sector emissions impacts through 2025 and 2038 for CO2 and NO, The cumulative emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generation resulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment at the higher standard levels. As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the cap on NO,, emissions would possibly result in no physical emissions effects from equipment efficiency standards in the affected states. When NOX emissions are subject to emissions caps, the Department's emissions reduction estimate corresponds to incremental changes in emissions allowance credits in cap-and-trade emissions markets rather than physical emissions reductions. Table EA.7 shows the cumulative household emissions reductions through 2025 and 2038 for CO,, NO,,, and S02. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption at these standard levels.

EA-9 release into the home as a result ofventing system failure.


### 5.0 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 5.1 Air Quality/Emissions Impacts 5.1.1 Power Sector and Household Emissions The results for the environmental analysis are similar to a complete NEMS run as published in the AEO, and include power sector emissions for NOx and CO2in five-year forecast increments extrapolated to the year 2038. The Departmentreports the outcome ofthe analysis for each TSL as a deviation from the TMY SystemLoad Reference Case. This is also referred to as the base case, as well as the no-action alternative. As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the Clean AirAct Amendments of 1990 set an S02 emissions cap on all power generation, butpermitted flexibility among generators through the use ofemissions allowances and tradable permits. Moreover, S02 trading implies that physical emissions effects ofa standard will be zero because emissions will always be at, or near, the ceiling. Consequently, there is no physical S02 environmental benefit from electricity conservation as long as there is enforcement ofthe emissions ceiling. An economic benefit may result ifcoal generation falls and the resulting reduced demand for S02 emission allowances lowers the allowance price. Because the S02 effects consideredhere are too small to provide reasonable estimates ofimpacts on allowance prices, the environmental assessment does not attempt to estimate this benefit. Ifthis price impact is big enough to be detectable in NEMS-BT, the Department will report this value in future appliance standards rulemakings. Table EA.4 shows annual total power sector CO2and NOx emissions for the base case (no-action alternative) and each ofthe five TSLs. Table EA.5 shows the annual results for the household emissions and shows the High and Low Economic Growth scenario results for TSL 2, the proposed action. Table EA.6 shows the cumulative power sector emissions impacts through 2025 and 2038 for CO2 and NOx• The cumulative emissions through 2038 increase from TSL 1 to TSL 5 due to a rise in electricity generationresulting from a market shift from gas to electric heating equipment at the higher standard levels. As discussed earlier in section 4.2, the cap onNOx emissions wouldpossibly result inno physical emissions effects from equipment efficiency standards in the affected states. When NOx emissions are subject to emissions caps, the Department's emissions reduction estimate corresponds to incremental changes in emissions allowance credits in cap-and-trade emissions markets rather thanphysical emissions reductions. Table EA.7 shows the cumulative household emissions reductions through 2025 and 2038 for CO2 , NOx, and S02. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1to TSL 5 due to the decline in fuel consumption at these standard levels.
EA-9Table EA.8 shows the total cumulative emissions reductions from both the power sector

and households

. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 because the decrease in household emissions outweighs the increase in power sector emissions. Tables EA.4 through EA.8 also include results for the Low and High Economic Growth cases for the proposed standard (TSL 2). The differences between the reference and sensitivity cases are due to changes in the macroeconomic assumptions of NEMS-BT. Table EA.9 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power sector and households, using seven and three percent real discount rates. Table EA.8 shows the total cumulative emissions reductions from both the power sector and households. The emissions reductions become larger from TSL 1 to TSL 5 because the decrease in household emissions outweighs the increase in power sector emissions. Tables EA.4 through EA.8 also include results for the Low and High Economic Growth cases for the proposed standard (TSL 2). The differences between the reference and sensitivity cases are due to changes in the macroeconomic assumptions ofNEMS-BT. Table EA.9 shows the discounted cumulative emissions impacts from both the power sector and households, using seven and three percent real discount rates.

EA-IOFable EA.4 Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Metric 'Ions)' Difference from AE02005 TMY System Load Reference Case 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 AE02005 Reference Case with TMY System Load (Base Case) F'r polation CO, (MUa)1'3 2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,024.0 3,312.0 3.137 0 3.5'_ l 0 516,0 NOx (kt/a)''' 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.6 3,810.2 3,900.9 3.32n_1 3.3'N 6 3,317.7
Standard Level CO,(Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,372

.0 2,624.0 2,800

.0 3,024.0 3,311.9 3,4Y7_U 35'_1.1 3S9C._ C02(Mt/a) NOx (kt /a) 4,681.1 3,338

.4 3,637.8 3,737

.6 3,810.2 3,901 .0 3,320.6 333X.'' 3.3=17.N NOx ( kUa)
Standard Level 2 CO, (Mt/a) 283.0 2,372

.0 2,624.0 2,800

.0 3,023.9 3,311 .8 3,427.7 i,S_l.i 1-96. 1 CO, (Mtla) NOx (kUa) 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,7326 3,810.3 3,901.2 3,3207, 3,335.8 3,321.0 NOx ( kt/a)

Standard Level3 CO,(Mt/a) 21283.0 2,372

.0 2,624.0 2,800

.0 3,023.9 3,311 ,7 3,427.1 ;,5'_IS 3.396.8 CO,(Mt/a) NOx (ktla) 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737

.6 3,810.5 3,901 4 3.320.5 -,,3340 3,-,115 3 NO) (ktla)
Standard Level 4 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252030 2035 2038

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5
C03 (MUa) 2,283.0 2,372

.0 2,624.0 2,800

.0 3,023.4 3,310 .6 3,427,(, 3,523.2 3Sn95 CO, ( Mtla) 0.0 0.0 0

.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.4 0 Nos (kt /a) 4,681.1 3,338

.4 3,637.8 3,737

.7 3,811.5 3,9012 322.0 3.-,40. ; 3,349 " NOx (kt /a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1.3 2.3 Standard Level 5 CO, (Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,372

.0 2,624.0 2,800

.0 3,022.3 3,309.3 3,339.7 3,526.5 3;;01.5 NOx(kt/a) 14,681.1 3,338

.4 3,637.8 3,738

.0 3,812.5 3,906 .2 ,,3262 ;,3-14.'_ 3,354. 1 NOx(kt/a) 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0

.4 2.3 5.3
AE02005 High Growth Ref Case with TMY System Load CO,(Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,385.0 2,673.0 2,884.0 3,169.0 3,554.0 NOx (kUa) 4,681.1 3,356.6 3,674.1 3,773.9 3,864.6 3,973.5 Standard Level2 High Growth _,_3z.1 =.ana(, 3.ao9a
COi(Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,385

.0 2,673.0 2,884.0 3,168.9 3,553 .8 3.677.1 3,7783 3,F- C02(Mtla) NOx(kt/a) 4,681

. 1 3,356.6 3,674

. 1 3,773.9 3,864

.6 3,973.4 33F2.1 3A005 3,409.3 - NOx(kt/a)
AE02005 Low Growth Ref Case with TMY System Load CO,(Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,359.0 2,573.0 2,719.0 2,887.0 3,088.0 ..195.? ..^R2.9 3.352.3 NOx(kt/a) 4,681.1 3,3203 3,583.4 3,683.2 3,755.7 3,8283 3.276.3 3.285? Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO, (Mt/a) 2,283.0 2,359

.0 2,573.0 2,719

.0 2,886.9 3,087 .8 3.195 3 1 1353 ^ C02 (MUa) NOx (kt /a) 4,681.1 3,320.3 3,583

.4 3,683.2 3,7559 3,828.1 i25S _i 3271, 285.'

_ NOx (kt/a) 'Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference forecast 2Comparable to Table At 7 of AE02005: Electric Generators 'Comparable to Table AS of AE02005: Emissions 4All results in metric tons (t), equivalent to 1.1 short tons EA-11 04 Table EA.4 Power Sector Emissions

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Case with TMY System Load (Base Case) 2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,024.0 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.6 3,810.2

2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,024.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.6 3,810.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,023.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.6 3,810.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,023.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.6 3,810.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3

2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,023.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,737.7 3,811.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3

2,283.0 2,372.0 2,624.0 2,800.0 3,022.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 4,681.1 3,338.4 3,637.8 3,738.0 3,812.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 High Growth RefCase with TMY System Load (Mt/a) 12,283.0 2,385.0 2,673.0 2,884.0 3,169.0 (ktla) 4,681.1 3,356.6 3,674.1 3,773.9 3,864.6

2,673.0 2,884.0 3,168.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4,681.1 3,356.6 3,674.1 3,773.9 3,864.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3,583.4 3,683.2 3,755.7

2,359.0 2,573.0 2,719.0 2,886.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 4,681.1 3,320.3 3,583.4 3,683.2 3,755.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lNegative values refer to a reduction compared to the Reference forecast 'Comparable to Table AI7 ofAE02005: Electric Generators 'Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02005: Emissions 'All results in metric tons (t), equivalcntto 1.1 shorttons EA-llTable EA.5 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case'

Standard Level 1 COz (Mt/a) pNOx (kt/a) SO2 (kt/a)
Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt/a) NOx (kt/a) SO2 (kt/a)
Standard Level 3 COZ (Mt/a) 'NOx (kt/a) SOz (kt/a)
Standard Level 4 CO2 (Mt/a) NOx (kt/a) SO2 (kt/a)
Standard Level 5 CO2 (Mt/a) -NOx (kt/a) :SOz (kt/a)
Standard Leve COz (Mt/a) NOx (kt/a) SO2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
tandard Level 2 Low Growth Scenario CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0

.00 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 SO2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 2000 2005

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 High Growth Scenario2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 l;xtralxilalion

0.00 0

.00 -0.17 -0 .34 -0.53 -0.72 -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0 .27 -0.42 -0.57 -0.65! 0.00 0

.00 -0.01 -0.03 A04 -0.01 -0.05

0.00 0

.00 -0.37 -0.76 -1.17 -1.55 -1.74'. 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.61 -0.93 -1.23 -1.381 0.00 0

.00 -0.03 -0.06 -O.OS -0.09 -0.101

0.00 0

.00 -0.70 -1 .46 -2.23 -2.89 -3.19 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.17 -1.77 -2.30 -2.54 0.00 0

.00 -0.06 -0.11 -0.16 -0.17 -0.18

0.00 0.00 -3.24 -6.85 -10.37 -13.19 -14.40', 0.00 0

.00 -2.66 -5 .47 -8.27 -10.49 -1 1.44 0.00 0

.00 -0.28 -0 .54 -0.74 -0.80 -0.82

0.00 0

.00 -6.67 -14.09 -21.42 -27.63 -30.51 0.00 0 .00 -5.37 -11.13 -16.89 -21.74 -23.99, 0.00 0.00 -1.34 -2.71 -3.90 -4.69 -5.11

0.00 0

.00 -0.38 -0.76 -1,16 -1.54 -1.73J. 0.00 0.00
-0.30 -0.61 -0.93 -1.23 -1.39! 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 408 -0.09 -0.10

0.00 0

.00 -0.38 -0.77 -1.19 -1.57 -1.7()', 0.00 0

.00 -0.30 -0.61 -0.93 -1.23 -1.38 0.00 0

.00 -0.03 -0.06 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10 Negative values refer to a reduction compared to the Base Case 

### Table EA.5 Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Casel

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Standard Levell CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.34 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.27 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.03
Standard Level 2 CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.37 -0.76 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.61 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.06
Standard Level 3 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.70 -1.46 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.17 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.11
Standard Level 4 CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.24 -6.85 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.66 -5.47 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -0.54
Standard LevelS CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.67 -14.09 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -5.37 -11.13 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.34 -2.71
Standard Level 2 Growth Scenario CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.38 -0.76 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.61 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 Standard Level 2 Growth Scenario CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.38 -0.77 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.61 S02 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 INegative values refer to a reduction compared to the Base Case

EA-12Table EA.6 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case'

Standard Level 3 CO2 NO -1.3 2.7 NOx (kt) 1 3.1 7.4
Standard Level 4 CO, (Mt) -5.9 12.3 NOx (kt) 14.5 34.2
Standard Level 5 CO, (Mt) -10.1 40.2 NOx (kt) 33.9 99.1
Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2 (Mt) -0.7 1.5 NOx (kt) -0.6 -0.5
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2 NO -0.7 1.5 NOx (kt) - 1.0 -0.9 Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-13 

### Table EA.6 Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Casel

Standard Level 1 CO2 (Mt) -0.3 0.7 NOx (kt) 0.7 1.8 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt) -0.7 1.5 NOx (kt) 1.6 3.9 Standard Level 3 CO2 (Mt) -1.3 2.7 NOx (kt) 3.1 7.4 Standard Level 4 CO2 (Mt) -5.9 12.3 NOx (kt) 14.5 34.2 Standard LevelS CO2 (Mt) -10.1 40.2 NOx (kt) 33.9 99.1 Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2 (Mt) -0.7 1.5 NOx (kt) -0.6 -0.5 Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2 (Mt) -0.7 1.5 NOx (kt) -1.0 -0.9 INegative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-13Table EA.7 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case' Cumulative 2000

- Cumulative 2000 2025 2039
Standard Level 1 CO2 NO NOx (kt) SO2 (kt) Standard Level 2 CO, (Mt) -4.0 NOx (kt) -3.3 SO, (kt) -0.3 Standard Level 3 CO, (Mt) 7.7 -39.7 NOx (kt) -6.4 -31.9 S02 (kt) -0.6 -2.7 Standard Level 4 C02 NO -35.6 -183.3 NOx (kt) 29.6 -147.2 SO2 (kt) -3.0 -12.7 Standard Level 5 CO2 NO -73.4 NOx (kt) -60.0 SO2 (kt) -14.8
Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2 NO -3.9 NOx (kt) 3.3 SO2 (kt) -0.3
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2 NO -4.0 -21.3 NOx (kt) -3.3 -16.9 SO2 (kt) -0.3 -1.5 'Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-14 

### Table EA.7 Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Casel
"1125 2038 Standard Levell CO2(Mt) -1.8 -9.7 NOx (kt) -1.5 -7.8 S02 (kt) -0.2 -0.7 Standard Level 2 CO2(Mt) -4.0 -21.1 NOx(kt) -3.3 -16.9 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5 Standard Level 3 CO2(Mt) -7.7 -39.7 NOx (kt) -6.4 -31.9 S02 (kt) -0.6 -2.7 Standard Level 4 CO2(Mt) -35.6 -183.3 NOx (kt) -29.6 -147.2 S02 (kt) -3.0 -12.7 Standard LevelS CO2(Mt) -73.4 -381.2 NOx (kt) -60.0 -302.5 S02 (kt) -14.8 -69.0
Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2(Mt) -3.9 -20.9 NOx (kt) -3.3 -16.9 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2(Mt) -4.0 -21.3 NOx (kt) -3.3 -16.9 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5 'Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-14Table EA.8 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case' Cumulative 2000-1 Cumulative 2000-

CO, (Mt) 2.1 9.0 NOx (kt) -0.8 -6.0 SO2 (kt) -0.2 -0.7 Standard Level 2 CO, (Mt) 4.7 19.6 NOx (kt) -1.7 -13.0 SO2 (kt ) -0.3 -1.5 Standard Level 3 CO2 NO -8.9 -37.0 NOx (kt) -3.3 -24.5 SO2 (kt) -0.6 -2.7 Standard Level 4 CO, NO -41.5 -171.1 NOx (kt) -15.1 -113.0 SO2 (kt) -3.0 -12.7 Standard Level 5 COz NO NOx (kt) SOz (kt)
Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2 NO NOx (kt) SO2 (kt)
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2 NO NOx (kt) SO, (kt) `Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-15 

### Table EA.8 Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Casel Cumulative 20 umulative 2000 2025 2038
Standard Levell CO2(Mt) -2.1 -9.0 NOx(kt) -0.8 -6.0 S02 (kt) -0.2 -0.7 Standard Level 2 CO2(Mt) -4.7 -19.6 NOx (kt) -1.7 -13.0 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5 Standard Level 3 CO2(Mt) -8.9 -37.0 NOx (kt) -3.3 -24.5 S02 (kt) -0.6 -2.7 Standard Level 4 CO2(Mt) -41.5 -171.1 NOx (kt) -15.1 -113.0 S02 (kt) -3.0 -12.7 Standard Level 5 CO2(Mt) -83.5 -341.0 NOx (kt) -26.1 -203.4 S02 (kt) -14.8 -69.0
Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2(Mt) -4.5 -19.4 NOx (kt) -3.9 -17.4 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2(Mt) -4.7 -19.9 NOx (kt) -4.3 -17.8 S02 (kt) -0.3 -1.5 'Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-15Table EA.9 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case

Standard Level I CO, (Mt) -1.7 NOx (kt) -1.0 SO, (kt) -0.1 Standard Level 2 CO, (Mt) -3.6 NOx (kt) -2.2 SO2 (kt) -0.3 Standard Level 3 CO2 NO -6.9 NOx (kt) -4.1 SO2 (kt) -0.5 Standard Level 4 CO2 NO -31.8 NOx (kt) -18.9 SO2 (kt) -2.4 Standard Level 5 CO, (Mt) -63.2 NOx (kt) 33.5 SO2 (kt) -12.5 Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2 NO 3.5 NOx (kt) -3.1 SO2 (kt) -0.3
Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO, (Mt) -3.7 NOx (kt) -3.3 SO2 (kt) -0.3 `Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-16 

### Table EA.9 Discounted Cumulative Power Sector and Household Emissions Impacts Forecast, Relative to the Base Case Yo Discount

Standard Levell CO2 (Mt) -1.7 -4.2 NOx (kt) -1.0 -2.7 S02 (kt) -0.1 -0.3 Standard Level 2 CO2 (Mt) -3.6 -9.2 NOx (kt) -2.2 -5.8 S02 (kt) -0.3 -0.7 Standard Level 3 CO2(Mt) -6.9 -17.4 NOx (kt) -4.1 -11.0 S02 (kt) -0.5 -1.3 Standard Level 4 CO2(Mt) -31.8 -80.6 NOx(kt) -18.9 -51.0 S02 (kt) -2.4 -6.0 Standard LevelS CO2(Mt) -63.2 -160.4 NOx (kt) -33.5 -91.2 S02 (kt) -12.5 -32.1 Standard Level 2 High Growth CO2(M!) -3.5 -9.1 NOx (kt) -3.\ -8.1 S02 (kt) -0.3 -0.7 Standard Level 2 Low Growth CO2(Mt) -3.7 -9.3 NOx (kt) -3.3 -8.3 S02 (kt) -0.3 -0.7 'Negative values correspond to emissions reductions

EA-165.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the amount of energy used in the upstream and downstream production of energy, including energy used at the power plant. The amount of energy used to perform the upstream processes is not directly linked to the downstream consumption of these fuels. For this reason, changes in upstream emissions due to proposed standards are not counted in NEMS-BT. DOE does not report estimates of the effects of alternatives on upstream emissions, thus makes no conclusions regarding differences in upstream impacts among the alternatives. However, the emissions factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude of the effects. Estimates of upstream emissions for C02 and NOX are taken from a study conducted in 1993 by Mark A. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph. D., at Argonne National Laboratory.' DeLuchi provides estimates of full fuel-cycle emissions factors for C02, methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), and NOX from coal and natural gas production.' The emission factor for S02 is taken from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Report, AP-42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors.b The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal cleaning is the primary source for upstream S02 emissions from coal production, so the emission factor for S02 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation of coal is not addressed in EPA's study. Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages of contributions of upstream emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to power plant emissions, are shown in Table EA. 10 for COD SOD and NO,,. The relative percentage to power plant emissions provides a means to estimate upstream emission savings based on the savings from the power plant. The values shown in Table EA.9 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass (g) per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers. Table EA.10 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages To Direct

Power Plant Combustion Emissions Coal Natur al Gas Emission Factor (g/G ) % of Combustion

Emissions Emission Factor (g/G.) % of Combustion

Emissions CO, 8,147 2.7 20,000 11.9 so, 29.2 0.9 0 0 NO, 41.7 5.8 153 40 Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percent by mass of emissions from coal production are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the coal, and transportation from the mine to the power plant. Transportation emissions include emissions from the fuel used by the mode of transportation that moves the coal from the mine to the power plant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent of emissions from natural gas production results from upstream processes. In sum, emissions factors relative to
EA-17 

### 5.1.2 Fuel-Cycle Emissions As discussed earlier, fuel-cycle emissions refer to the emissions associated with the amount ofenergy used inthe upstream and downstream production ofenergy, including energy used at the powerplant. The amount ofenergy used to perform the upstreamprocesses is not directly linked to the downstream consumption ofthese fuels. Forthis reason, changes in upstream emissions due to proposed standards are not counted inNEMS-BT. DOE does not report estimates ofthe effects ofalternatives onupstream emissions, thus makes no conclusions regarding differences in upstream impacts among the alternatives. However, the emissions factors described here provide the reader with a sense for the possible magnitude ofthe effects. Estimates ofupstream emissions for CO2and NOx are taken from a study conducted in 1993 byMark A. DeLuchi (sometimes spelled DeLucci), Ph. D., at Argonne National Laboratory.s DeLuchi provides estimates offull fuel-cycle emissions factors for CO2 , methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane organic compounds (NMOC), and NOx from coal and natural gas production.sThe emission factor for S02 is taken from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Report, AP-42, Compilation of AirPollutantEmission Factors. 6 The EPA AP-42 report notes that coal cleaning is the primary source for upstream S02 emissions from coal production, so the emission factor for S02 reflects only the coal-cleaning process. Transportation ofcoal is not addressed in EPA's study. Emission factor estimates and corresponding percentages ofcontributions ofupstream emissions from coal and natural gas production, relative to powerplant emissions, are shown in Table EA.10 for CO2 , S02' andNOx' The relative percentage to powerplant emissions provides a means to estimate upstream emission savings based onthe savings from the powerplant. The values shown in Table EA.9 represent emissions from upstream processes as mass (g) per deliverable energy in gigajoules (GJ) to end-use consumers. 

### Table EA.I0 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages To Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions Coal Natural Gas Emission Factor % ofCombustion Emission Factor % ofCombustion (gIGJ) Emissions (gIGJ) Emissions CO2 8,147 2.7 20,000 11.9 S02 29.2 0.9 0 0 NO, 41.7 5.8 153 40 Relative to the entire fuel cycle, DeLuchi estimates that approximately eight percent by mass ofemissions from coalproduction are due to mining, preparation that includes cleaning the coal, and transportation from the mine to the powerplant. Transportation emissions include emissions from the fuel used bythe mode oftransportation that moves the coal from the mine to the powerplant. Also, DeLuchi estimates that approximately 14 percent ofemissions from natural gas production results from upstreamprocesses. In sum, emissions factors relative to
EA-17power plant emissions are a relatively small proportion of the energy losses attributable to

upstream processes. With the exception of NOX emissions from natural gas production, upstream emissions are less than 12 percent of power plant emissions. 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and 'T'hreatened Species / Cultural Resources This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, this action is not expected to impact the quality of wetlands, or threatened or endangered species. Further, this action is not expected to impact cultural resources such as historical or archaeological sites. 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts DOE's analysis has shown that the increase in the first cost of purchasing a more efficient furnace or boiler at the proposed standard level is offset by a reduction in the LCC of owning a more efficient piece of equipment. In other words, the owner will pay less operating costs over the life of the equipment even though the first cost increases.For the sub-group of consumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, the proposed standard level would result in slightly less favorable impacts compared to the full sample of consumers. For the sub-group of consumers that are seniors, the average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample of consumers. Therefore the Department concludes that the proposed action would not have negative socioeconomic impact. For a complete discussion of the LCC impacts on low-income and senior households, see Chapter 11 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.2 5.4 Environmental Justice Impacts In view of Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994, "Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations," the DOE examined the effect of more stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As described in the Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis, Chapter 11 of the TSD2, the Department found that there were no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income populations that would result from the proposed energy efficiency standards. DOE believes that the above conclusion would also apply to minority populations. 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts The proposed standard level for furnaces and boilers (TSL 2) would result in the national energy savings shown in Table EA. 10. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided, see Chapter 10 of the Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.2

EA-18 powerplant emissions are a relatively small proportion ofthe energy losses attributable to upstreamprocesses. With the exception ofNOx emissions from natural gas production, upstream emissions are less than 12 percent ofpowerplant emissions. 

### 5.2 Wetlands / Endangered and Threatened Species / Cultural Resources This action is not site-specific, and would not affect land disturbance. Therefore, this action is not expected to impact the quality ofwetlands, orthreatened or endangered species. Further, this action is not expected to impact cultural resources such as historical or archaeological sites. 

### 5.3 Socioeconomic Impacts DOE's analysis has shown that the increase in the first cost ofpurchasing a more efficient furnace orboiler at the proposed standard level is offset by a reduction inthe LCC ofowning a more efficient piece ofequipment. In other words, the owner will pay less operating costs over the life ofthe equipment even though the first cost increases. Forthe sub-group ofconsumers that are low-income, DOE determined that for nonweatherized gas furnaces, the proposed standard level would result in slightly less favorable impacts compared to the full sample ofconsumers. Forthe sub-group ofconsumers that are seniors, the average LCC impact is similar to that for the full sample ofconsumers. Therefore the Department concludes that the proposed action would nothave negative socioeconomic impact. For a complete discussion ofthe LCC impacts on low-income and senior households, see Chapter 11 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.2 

### 5.4 EnvironmentalJustice Impacts In view ofExecutive Order 12898 ofFebruary 11, 1994, "Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations," the DOE examined the effect ofmore stringent energy efficiency standards on low-income households. As described inthe Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis, Chapter 11 ofthe TSD2
, the Department found that there were no disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects on low-income populations that would result from the proposed energy efficiency standards. DOE believes that the above conclusion would also apply to minority populations. 

### 5.5 Energy Consumption Impacts The proposed standard level for furnaces and boilers (TSL 2) wouldresult in the national energy savings shown in Table EA. 1 

### O. Energy savings for the other four TSLs are also provided, see Chapter 10 ofthe Residential Furnaces and Boilers TSD.2

EA-18Table EA.11 Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 No Action TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Trial Cumulative Primary

Standard Energy Level Saved (Quads) 0.00 0.18 0.41 0.69 3.19 6.22
5.6 Noise and Aesthetics The proposed action is not likely to affect the sound power levels, sound quality levels or aesthetics associated with residential furnaces and boilers. The impact on noise or aesthetics from the more efficient equipment covered under this EA would be virtually no different from equipment being installed today. 5.7 Indoor Air Environment The Department determined that none of the considered alternatives would lead to carbon monoxide release into the home as a result of venting system failure, with the possible exception of TSL 3. TSL 3 includes a standard for non

-weatherized gas furnaces and for mobile home gas furnaces at 81-percent AFUE. At this level, there is some risk of venting system failure due to condensation

. Based on its evaluation of all the information considered during the rulemaking, the Department believes that the standard levels in the proposed action would not result in negative impact on the indoor air environment. 5.8 Summary of Environmental Impacts Table EA. 11 provides a summary of the analysis results to aid the reader in discerning the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative. 

### Table EA.ll Cumulative Energy Savings from Residential Furnaces and Boilers Standards from 2015 to 2038 Trial Standard Level No Action TSL 1 TSL2 TSL3 TSL4 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads) 0.00 0.18 0.41 0.69 3.19 

### 5.6 Noise and Aesthetics TSL5 6.22

The proposed action is not likely to affect the soundpower levels, sound quality levels or aesthetics associated with residential furnaces and boilers. The impact onnoise or aesthetics from the more efficient equipment coveredunder this EA would be virtually no different from equipmentbeing installed today. 

### 5.7 IndoorAirEnvironment The Department determined that none ofthe considered alternatives would lead to carbon monoxide release into the home as a result ofventing system failure, with the possible exception ofTSL 3. TSL 3 includes a standard for non-weatherized gas furnaces and for mobile home gas furnaces at 8I-percent AFUE. Atthis level, there is some risk ofventing system failure due to condensation. Based on its evaluation ofall the information considered during the rulemaking, the Departmentbelieves that the standard levels in the proposed action would not result in negative impact on the indoor air environment. 

### 5.8 Summary ofEnvironmental Impacts Table EA.II provides a summary ofthe analysis results to aid the reader in discerning the benefits and burdens for the different TSLs as well as the no-action alternative.

EA-19Table EA.12 Summary of the Analysis Results No-Action Trial Standard Level Alternative 1 2 3 4 5 Cumulative Emission Reductions* C02 NO 0.0 9.0 19.6 37.0 171.1 341.0 NOx (kt) 0.0 6.0 13.0 24.5 113.0 203.4 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.18 0.41 0.69 3.19 6.22 Socioeconomic Impacts - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings** All Consumers NA $2 $2 $2 $5 ($731) Low-income Sub-group NA $1 $1 ($3) ($20) ($720) Senior Sub-group NA $2 $2 $1 ($2) ($676) Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None *** *** *** *** *** I Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None * Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. The reductions include impacts at power plants (both physical reductions and emissions credits) and at the household level. ** Values refer to savings over the equipment lifetime. *** DOE does not report actual estimates of the effects of standards on upstream emissions, but section 5.1.2 provides a sense for the possible magnitude of effects. The Department has proposed energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers at TSL 2. The proposed standards would not result in significant environmental impacts. The proposed standards would apply to all covered products offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date of January 1, 2015. The Department has found the proposed standard represents the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. The Department found the benefits to the Nation of the proposed standard (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the costs (loss of manufacturer NPV, and LCC increases for some consumers). The justification for selecting the proposed action, TSL 2, over the other TSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions of the NOPR. The NOPR is available on the internet at: /http://www. eere. energy. gov/buildings/appliance standards/residential/fumaces_boilers.httnl under "Not yet known." The proposed standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline equipment) of 2 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces, 5 percent for weatherized gas furnaces, 5 percent for mobile home gas furnaces, 4 percent for oil-fired furnaces, 4 percent for gas boilers, and 3 percent for oil boilers.

EA-20 

### T bi 

### EA 12 S

a e 

# . ummaryofth A I . R I e nalYSIS esu ts No-Action Trial Standard Level Alternative 1 2 3 4 5 Cumulative Emission Reductions* CO2 (Mt) 0.0 9.0 19.6 37.0 171.1 341.0 NOx (kt) 0.0 6.0 13.0 24.5 113.0 203.4 Cumulative Primary Energy Saved (Quads)* 0.0 0.18 0.41 0.69 3.l9 6.22 Socioeconomic Impacts Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace, Mean LCC Savings**

All Consumers NA $2 $2 $2 $5 ($731) Low-income Sub-group NA $1 $1 ($3) ($20) ($720) Senior Sub-group NA $2 $2 $1 ($2) ($676) Environmental Justice Impacts None None None None None None Wetlands/Endangered and Threatened None None None None None None Species/Cultural Resources Impacts Fuel-Cycle (Upstream) Emissions Impacts None *** *** *** *** *** Noise and Aesthetics Impacts None None None None None None * Cumulative total is over a time period starting in 2015 and ending in 2038. The reductions include impacts at powerplants (both physical reductions and emissions credits) and atthe household level. ** Values refer to savings over the equipment lifetime. *** DOE does not report actnal estimates ofthe effects ofstandards on upstream emissions, but section 5.J.2 provides a sense for the possible magnitude ofeffects. The Departmenthas proposed energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers at TSL 2. The proposed standards would not result in significant environmental impacts. The proposed standards would apply to all covered products offered for sale in the United States and its Territories, with a compliance date ofJanuary 1,2015. The Departmenthas found the proposed standard represents the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified. The Department found the benefits to the Nation ofthe proposed standard (energy savings, consumer average LCC savings, national NPV increase, and emissionreductions) outweigh the costs (loss of manufacturerNPV, andLCC increases for some consumers). Thejustification for selecting the proposed action, TSL 2, over the other TSLs considered is fully explained in Section V.C, Conclusions ofthe NOPR. The NOPR is available on the internet at: /http://www.eere.energy.gov /buildings/appliance _standards/residential/furnaces _boilers.html under "Notyetknown." The proposed standards represent an improvement in energy efficiency (relative to the baseline equipment) of2 percent for non-weatherized gas furnaces, 5 percent for weatherized gas furnaces, 5 percent for mobile home gas furnaces, 4 percent for oil-fired furnaces, 4 percent for gas boilers, and 3 percent for oil boilers.

EA-20In the 24-year period after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save

about 0.48 quads of primary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases by 22.2 Mt of CO2 and 19.4 kt of NO, In the 24-yearperiod after the new standards become effective, the Nation will save about 0.48 quads ofprimary energy. Additionally, these energy savings will reduce emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases by 22.2 Mt ofCO2 and 19.4 kt ofNOx•

EA-21REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Research and Standards. Notice of the Public Workshop and Availability of the Framework Document for Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2001. (Posted November 5, 2001) <http://www.cere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/> 2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical Support Document: Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products; Residential Furnaces and Boilers. 2005. Washington, D.C. 3. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2005: With Projections Through 2025. February, 2005. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2005). This material is available in Docket #83. Contact Ms. Brenda Edwards-Jones, U.S. Department of Energy, Building Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC, 20585- 0121, telephone (202) 586-2945 for more information. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf5 4. U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2003. December, 2004. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0573(2004). 5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the Use of Transportation Fuels and Electricity, Volume 2: Appendixes A-S. November, 1993. Argonne National Laboratory. Argonne, IL. Report No. ANL/ESD/TM-22-Vol.2. 6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I: Stationary Point and Area Sources, Chapter H, Mineral Products Industry. 1995. (Posted November) <htip ://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief /gp42cl l .html> REFERENCES 1. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofBuilding Research and Standards. Notice of the Public Workshop andAvailability of the FrameworkDocument forResidentialFurnaces andBoilers. 2001. (Posted November 5,2001) <http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance

_standards/> 2. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Office ofEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products. Technical SupportDocument: Energy Conservation Program for ConsumerProducts; ResidentialFurnaces andBoilers. 2005. Washington, D.C. 3. U.S. Department ofEnergy

- Energy Information Administration. AnnualEnergy Outlook2005: With Projections Through 2025. February,2005. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2005). This material is available in Docket#83. Contact Ms. Brenda Edwards-Jones, U.S. Department ofEnergy, Building Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC, 20585- 0121, telephone (202) 586-2945 for more information. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2005).pdf> 4. U.S. Department ofEnergy-Energy Information Administration. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the UnitedStates 2003. December,2004. Washington, DC. ReportNo. DOE/EIA-0573(2004). 5. DeLuchi, M. A. Emissions of Greenhouse Gasesfrom the Use of Transportation Fuels andElectricity, Volume 2: AppendixesA-S. November, 1993. Argonne National Laboratory. Argonne,IL. Report No. ANLIESD/TM-22-Vo1.2. 6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Compilation of AirPollutantEmission Factors, AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I: Stationary Point andArea Sources, Chapter 11, Mineral Products Industry. 1995. (Posted November) <http://www.epa.gov/ttnichief/ap42c11.html>

EA-22