Analysis in Support of Certification that the Rule will not 

have a Significant Economic Impact on a Substantial 

Number of Small Entities

Proposed Rule

French Bean Imports from the Republic of Kenya

APHIS-2010-0101

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

December 2010
Summary

This analysis examines impacts for U.S. small entities of a rule that would allow French 

bean imports from the Republic of Kenya. Kenya produced an average of about 37,000 metric 

tons (MT) of French beans per year between 2004 and 2009, of which it exported an average of 

about 34,000 MT, primarily to the European Union. The EU provides a well-established market 

and it is unlikely that there would be a large diversion of French bean exports by Kenya from this 

market to the United States. 

To examine potential effects of the rule for U.S. small entities, we model three levels of 

French bean exports to the United States from Kenya, of increasing magnitude: the amount that 

Kenya expects to export to the United States (800 MT), and amounts equal to 5 percent and 10 

percent of Kenya’s average annual exports worldwide, 2004-2009 (1,750 MT and 3,500 MT). 

The largest assumed level is equivalent to 1.3 percent of average annual consumption by the 

United State during this same period.

Yearly French bean imports from Kenya of 3,500 MT are estimated to result in a price 

decline of $12.60 per MT, that is, less than 1 cent per pound in the wholesale price of green 

beans, and a fall in U.S. production of 1,838 MT. Consumption is estimated to increase by 1,663

MT. Producer welfare could decline by $2.92 million and consumer welfare could increase by 

$3.35 million, yielding an annual net welfare gain of about $430,000.

While most U.S. green bean producers are small entities, the annual decrease in producer 

welfare per small entity for the 3,500 MT import scenario is estimated to be only about $66, or 

about 0.7 percent of average annual sales by small entities. The dollar decrease in welfare for 

most small fresh bean producers would be even smaller, given that the majority planted less than 

an acre in green beans in 2007, while the average area planted in green beans by small-entity 
producers was 2.4 acres. Also, effects are likely to be smaller than indicated, to the extent that 

fresh French bean imports from Kenya would displace fresh bean imports from other countries. 

Based on this analysis, the rule would not have a significant economic impact on a substantial 

number of small entities.
Introduction 

This analysis examines impacts for U.S. small entities of a rule that would allow fresh 

French bean and runner bean imports from the Republic of Kenya.

1

As background, we provide a brief overview of fresh green bean production and trade by 

the United States and Kenya. This is followed with an estimate of price and welfare effects of 

 The rule would amend 7 

CFR 319.56, and is part of a continuing program to allow the importation of foreign agricultural 

products that APHIS has determined are without significant risk of introducing exotic plant pests 

into the United States. Consignments of beans washed and cut to predetermined size would be 

accompanied by a phytosanitary certificate of inspection issued by Kenya’s national plant 

protection organization attesting that all APHIS phytosanitary requirements have been met and 

that the consignment was inspected and found free of quarantine pests.

The Regulatory Flexibility Act requires agencies to evaluate the potential effects of their 

proposed and final rules on small businesses, small organizations and small governmental 

jurisdictions. Section 603 of the Act requires an agency to prepare an initial regulatory 

flexibility analysis (IRFA) that describes the expected impact of the rule on small entities and 

any significant alternatives to the proposed rule which accomplish the stated objectives and that 

minimize any significant economic impact of the proposed rule on small entities. In place of the 

IRFA, the head of the agency may certify that a rule will not have a significant economic impact 

on a substantial number of small entities. This analysis provides the factual basis for 

certification of this rule. 

 1 The terms “French bean,” “runner bean,” and green bean” are used in this analysis interchangeably.
the rule based on assumed levels of French bean imports from Kenya. We then describe the 

expected impact of the rule for small entities.

U.S. Fresh Green Bean Production and Trade

As shown in table 1, U.S. fresh bean production and consumption have fluctuated over 

recent years. The U.S. produced an average of about 262,000 metric tons (MT) of fresh beans 

per year, valued at $306 million, between 2004 and 2009. Production for the fresh green bean 

market occurs in many States. Eight States (Florida, Georgia, California, New York, Tennessee, 

North Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan) accounted for 95 percent of total production in 2009.2

 

Annual consumption over this same period averaged about 263,000 MT. U.S. imports averaged 

about 32,000 MT, and exports averaged about 29,000 MT.

Mexico is the largest source of imports (over 70 percent in 2009). Other suppliers 

include Guatemala (24 percent), Canada (2 percent), China (2 percent), Nicaragua (1 percent)

and Peru (1 percent).

 2 USDA/NASS, Vegetables 2009 Summary, January 2010, 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/VegeSumm/VegeSumm-01-27-2010.pdf

U.S. green bean exports in 2009 were to Canada (73 percent), Jamaica (10 percent), 

Venezuela (10 percent), and Mexico (4 percent). Other minor overseas markets include the 

Dominican Republic, Italy, Poland, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, and France. 
Table 1. U.S. fresh green bean: supply, utilization and price, 2004-2009

Year

Production 

in Metric 

Tons

Consumption 

in Metric Tons

Wholesale 

Price in $ 

per MT

Exports 

in Metric 

Tons

Imports in 

Metric 

Tons

2004 261,136 250,546 997 37,164 26,574

2005 249,977 241,948 1,193 35,488 27,459

2006 281,820 282,162 1,102 28,017 28,359

2007 294,929 301,086 1,349 25,668 31,826

2008 262,175 271,577 1,164 26,431 35,833

2009 220,539 227,490 1,180 30,948 37,899

7-Year 

Average 

(2004-2009)

261,763 262,469 1,164 30,619 31,325

Sources: Production and price data are from USDA ERS, Vegetables and Melons Yearbook data/#89011/May 20, 

2010, http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/VegeSumm/VegeSumm-01-27-2010.pdf. Export and import data 

are from USDA/FAS, Global Agricultural Trade Systems (GATS), http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx. 

Consumption is calculated as production + imports – exports.

Kenya produced an average of about 37,000 MT of French beans per year between 2004 

and 2009.

Kenya’s Fresh French Bean Production and Trade

3 Most of the production is for the export market, which averaged more than 34,000 

MT over this same time period.4 Most of Kenya’s French bean exports are to European Union 

(EU) countries, including the United Kingdom (63 percent of Kenya’s French bean exports), 

Netherlands (14 percent), France (12 percent), Belgium (6 percent) and Germany (3 percent). 

Other minor destinations include Switzerland, United Arab Republic, South Africa, Norway, 

Italy, Russia, Singapore and Ireland.5

 3 FAO, FAOStat, http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx#ancor. 4 Based on importing country records. Global Trade Atlas, Global Trade Information Services, Inc., November, 

2010, http://www.gtis.com/gta/secure/gateway.cfm 5 Global Trade Atlas, Global Trade Information Services, Inc., country edition, November, 2010.

 The EU provides a well-established market and it is 

unlikely that there would be a large diversion of French bean exports by Kenya from this market 

to the United States. 
We estimate the impact of fresh French bean imports from Kenya on U.S. production, 

consumption, and prices using a non-spatial partial equilibrium model. Data used are from the 

Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Trade Systems (GATS); USDA ERS 

Vegetables and Melons Yearbook Data #89011, May 20, 2010; and the Global Trade Atlas.

Impact of Fresh French Bean Imports

6

 

The demand and supply elasticities used are -0.596 and 0.75, respectively.

7

Table 2 presents the changes we estimate could result from the assumed levels of French 

bean imports from Kenya. These include annual changes in U.S. consumption, production, 

wholesale price, consumer welfare, producer welfare, and net welfare. The maximum level of 

assumed French bean imports to the United States of 3,500 MT would result in a price decline of 

$12.35 per MT (or a decline of less than 1 cent per pound) in the wholesale price of green beans

As described, Kenya exported on average more than 34,000 MT of French beans per year 

between 2004 and 2009. We model three levels of French bean imports from Kenya, of 

increasing magnitude: (i) the amount that Kenya expects to export to the United States (800

MT); (ii) an amount equal to about 5 percent of Kenya’s average annual exports, 2004-2009

(1,750 MT).; and (iii) an amount equal to about 10 percent of Kenya’s average annual exports, 

2004-2009 (3,500 MT). The largest assumed level is equivalent to 1.3 percent of average annual 

consumption by the United State during this same period. 

 6 UN/FAO, FAO stat data (http://faostat.fao.org) and Global Trade Atlas, Global Trade Information Services, Inc., 

country edition, November 2010. 7 Demand elasticity is from J.E. Epperson and L.E. Lei, A regional analysis of vegetable production with changing 

demand for raw crops using quadratic programming, Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, July 1989, pp. 87-

96, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/30166/1/21010087.pdf; Lewrene K. Glaser and Gary D. Thompson, 

Selected paper to be presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, August 8-11, 

1998, Nashville, Tennessee; supply price elasticity is from Benjamin Onyango and Sanjib Bhuyan, A supply 

response analysis of the fruits and vegetables sector in New Jersey, Department of Agricultural, Food and resource 

Economics, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8520, 2001, 

http://aesop.rutgers.edu/~bhuyan/coop/fvreport2.pdf.
and a fall in U.S. production of 1,840 MT. Consumption is estimated to increase by 1,660 MT. 

Producer welfare could decline by $2.84 million and consumer welfare could increase by $3.25 

million, yielding an annual net welfare gain of about $410,000.

Table 2: Estimated impact on the U.S. economy of fresh French bean imports from Kenya, for 

three import scenarios

Assumed annual French bean 

imports from Kenya, MT 8001 1,7502 3,5003

Change in U.S. consumption, 

MT 379 830 1,660

Change in U.S. production, MT -421 -920 -1,840

Change in the wholesale price 

of green beans, dollars per MT -$2.82 -$6.28 -$12.35

Change in consumer welfare $742,000 $1,624,000 $3,253,000

Change in producer welfare -$652,000 -$1,425,000 -$2,844,000

Annual net benefit $90,000 $199,000 $410,000

Note: The baseline data used are seven-year annual averages for production, consumption, prices, exports and 

imports, as reported in the last row of table 1. The demand and supply elasticities used are -0.596 and 0.75, 

respectively (see footnote 7). 

1

The amount Kenya expects to export to the United States (800 MT).

2

An amount equal to about 5 percent of Kenya’s total exports (1,750 MT).

3

An amount equal to about 10 percent of Kenya’s total exports (3,500 MT).

In all three scenarios, consumer welfare gains outweigh producer welfare losses. Even in 

the third scenario in which we assume Kenya would export 3,500 MT to the United States, the 

decline in producer welfare represents less than 1 percent of revenue received from the sale of 

domestically produced fresh beans.

8

 8 $2.92 million divided by $306.3 million (average cash receipts between 2004 and 2009 for fresh beans) equals 0.95 

percent. Source: USDA/ERS, Farm Income, http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/farmincome/FinfidmuXls.htm.

 The price decline in this third scenario is about 1 percent of 

the average domestic price. The price and welfare effects are likely to be even smaller than are 

indicated by the three scenarios, to the extent that fresh French bean imports from Kenya would

displace fresh bean imports from other countries.
Potential Impact on Small Entities

The Small Business Administration (SBA) has established guidelines for determining 

which firms are to be considered small under the Regulatory Flexibility Act. This rule could 

affect U.S. producers of fresh green beans (classified under Other Vegetable (except Potato) and 

Melon Farming, NAICS 111219) and importers of fresh beans. Vegetable-producing 

establishments are classified as small if their annual receipts are not more than $750,000.9

As shown in table 3, the impact of potential fresh bean imports on U.S. small-entity 

producers as a result of this rule would be small. The annual decrease in producer welfare per 

small entity is estimated to be about $64, or about 0.7 percent of average annual sales by small 

entities, when we assume that 3,500 MT of fresh French beans (the third scenario shown in table 

2) would be exported to the United States because of this rule. The dollar decrease in welfare for 

most small fresh bean producers would be even smaller, given that the majority planted less than 

an acre in green beans in 2007, while the average area planted in green beans by small-entity 

producers was 2.4 acres. 

According to the 2007 Census of Agriculture (most recent data on farm sizes), there were 

15,654 farms producing fresh beans in the United States. About 76 percent of these farms had 

less than one acre in fresh beans. Overall, 15,539 farms (99.3 percent) had a total of 37,208

acres in fresh beans (about 35 percent of the total planted area) and are considered small, with an 

average of about 2.4 acres and an average annual income of about $9,000 in 2007. The 

remaining 0.7 percent of the farms planted a total of 68,688 acres planted in green beans (65

percent of the planted area). They averaged 597 acres, with an average annual income of about 

$2.2 million.

 9 SBA, Small business size standards matched to the North American Industry Classification System 2007, Effective 

August 22, 2008 (www.sba.gov/size/sizetable2007.html).
Table 3. Estimated impact of potential French bean imports from Kenya on U.S. small entities, 

assuming annual imports of 3,500 metric tons 

Total decline in producer welfare1 $2,844,000

Decrease in welfare incurred by small entities2 $995,4000

Average decrease per acre, small entities3 $26.75

Average decrease per small entity4 $64.00

Average decrease as % of average sales, small entities5 0.7% 1 From table 2. 2 Change in producer welfare multiplied by 35 percent, the percentage of total acreage planted by 

producers with annual revenues of not more than $750,000, that is, small entities. We assume that the 

change in producer welfare would be proportional to acreage share. 3 Decrease in producer welfare for small entities divided by 37,208, the number of acres planted by 

small entities. 4 Average decrease per acre multiplied by 2.4, the average number of acres per small entity. 5 Average decrease per small entity divided by $9,000, the average annual revenue per small entity.

The rule has no mandatory reporting, recordkeeping, or other compliance requirements. 

Any reporting or other requirements would be those normally associated with the regular 

transactions involved in doing business. Based on this analysis, the rule would not have a 

significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.