A Better 9th Grade: Early Results from an Experimental Study of the Early College High School Model Page 1

A Better 9th Grade: 

Early Results from an 

Experimental Study of 

the Early College 

High School Model
Page 2 SERVECenter

Overview

To increase the number of students 

graduating from high school prepared 

for college, North Carolina has 

established the largest number of 

Early College High Schools (ECHS) 

in the United States. Early results 

from a rigorous, independent study 

of North Carolina’s initiative have 

shown that these schools have 

substantial positive impacts on student 

performance. Specific findings include: 

 More ECHS students were 

on-track for college than control 

group students. 

 The ECHS model appears to be 

closing the performance gap

among student sub-groups. 

 Students in the ECHS were less 

likely to be suspended and were 

absent fewer days.

 ECHS students reported higher 

levels of academic engagement. 

 ECHS students reported more 

positive school experiences

than students in the control group, 

including better relationships, 

higher expectations, more 

rigorous and relevant instruction, 

and more academic and social 

support. 

This brief gives an overview of the 

model as implemented in North 

Carolina, the study’s design, and 

ECHS’ impacts on grade 9 students. 

The Problem

Too many students are not graduating 

from high school, and even among 

those who do, many are not prepared 

for postsecondary education and the 

world of work. More than 60 percent 

of employers rate students’ basic skills 

as “fair” or “poor,”1

 and over 40 percent 

of students enrolled in postsecondary 

education took remedial coursework.2

In North Carolina, less than threefourths (72 percent) of students 

graduate from high school on time,3

and only 19 percent graduate from a 

four-year college within 10 years of 

entering high school.4

Ninth grade is a critical year for 

students, when student academic 

performance and student attendance 

generally decline.5 A higher number 

of students are retained in 9th grade 

than in any other high school year, 

resulting in a 9th grade bulge. A large 

percentage of students leave school 

between the 9th and 10th grade.6

Students who do not do well in 9th 

grade are more likely to drop out of 

school, even if they did well in 8th 

grade.7 Finally, what students do and 

learn in 9th grade is critically important 

if they are to graduate prepared for 

college and work.

Researchers have found that students 

who do not complete Algebra I and 

English I by the end of grade 9 are not 

likely to graduate with the coursework 

needed for college. For example, 

a study that looked at high school 

transcripts in California found that, of 

the students who did not complete 

Algebra I by the end of grade 9, only 

an estimated 6 percent completed 

the courses necessary for college by 

the end of grade 12.8

 In other words, 

once students fell off the college prep 

track (which supplies the coursework 

needed for college), they were highly 

unlikely to get back on it. As a result, 

having access to and successfully 

completing core grade 9 courses such 

as Algebra I and English I are key 

to helping ensure students meet the 

requirements for college.

The Schools

In response to the above concerns, 

North Carolina established a publicprivate partnership to create new and 

redesigned high schools. Led by the 

North Carolina New Schools Project 

and funded by the North Carolina 

General Assembly with additional 

support from the Bill & Melinda 

Gates Foundation, this partnership 

has supported the North Carolina 

Early College High School Initiative.9

Early college high schools are small 

schools, most often located on 

college campuses, serving students 

in grades 9-12 or 9-13.10 The goal 

of these schools is to increase the 

number of students graduating from 

high school who are prepared for 

college and work. At the end of their 

high school experience, students 

“Having all the people around you who genuinely care and know who you are, and are 

backing you 100% on your road to success, and graduation eventually. It’s really motivating. 

It’s just an experience that I’m sure that if everyone had the opportunity to take and realize, 

the world would be a different place.”

 – ECHS Student
are expected to graduate with a high 

school diploma and an associate’s 

degree or two years of transferable 

college credit. The target populations 

for these schools are students who 

are traditionally underrepresented in 

college, including students who are 

low-income, are the first in their family 

to go to college, or are members of a 

minority group underrepresented in 

college. 

In North Carolina, ECHSs are required 

to follow a set of five core design 

principles: 

 Ready for College—Schools are 

to establish an environment that 

supports college readiness for all 

students. They do this through 

a required college preparatory 

curriculum, access to college 

courses, counseling for college 

admissions, and other college 

readiness activities, such as explicit 

instruction in college behavior and 

expectations. 

Comparing apples to apples 

This study is different from most studies in education because it uses an experimental 

design, often called the “gold standard” for determining the effectiveness of a program 

because students are randomly assigned to a treatment and control group. Here, when 

participating schools had more applicants than they had spots, a lottery was used to pick 

the students. A lottery is often considered the fairest way to allocate scarce resources. One 

group, the study’s treatment group, was randomly selected in the lottery to attend the Early 

College. The other group, the study’s control group, was not selected in the lottery and, 

thus, went somewhere else, most often to the regular district high school. Students in the 

two groups, treatment and control, should have the same background characteristics such 

as incoming achievement, motivation, and demographic characteristics. The only difference 

between the two groups would then be whether or not students attend ECHSs; this means 

you are comparing results for two groups that are the same—apples to apples. Any difference 

in outcomes could be considered to be an impact of ECHS because the students were 

randomly selected to attend the school. 

 Powerful Teaching and 

Learning—ECHSs are expected to 

incorporate rigorous and relevant 

instructional and assessment 

practices. 

 Personalization—Schools are 

to foster strong and positive 

relationships between students 

and staff and provide individualized 

academic and social support to 

help students achieve in a more 

challenging academic environment. 

 Professionalism—Schools are 

expected to create an environment 

that empowers teachers and 

supports professional development 

and collaboration. 

 Purposeful Design— As these are 

schools that serve fewer than 400 

students and that are located on 

college campuses, ECHSs have the 

flexibility to utilize time and other 

resources in a way to support the 

other design principles. 

Early college high schools are 

intended to implement the design 

principles in a comprehensive manner 

so that more students stay in school 

and graduate ready for college. 

The Study

Funded through a federal grant from 

the Institute of Education Sciences, 

this five-year study is the first to 

rigorously examine the impact of 

the early college high school model. 

The study is a collaborative effort led 

by SERVE Center at the University 

of North Carolina at Greensboro, 

working with the North Carolina New 

Schools Project, the North Carolina 

Department of Public Instruction 

(NCDPI), Duke University, Abt 

Associates, and RTI International. 

A Better 9th Grade: Early Results from an Experimental Study of the Early College High School Model Page 3
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The study has three main goals: 

1.Examine the impact of the ECHS 

model on student outcomes 

including: attitudes, attendance, 

achievement, course-taking, and 

school leaving/dropout rates.

2.Determine whether the impact varies 

by student characteristics, such as: 

race/ethnicity, poverty status, and 

first generation college status.

3.Determine whether specific program 

components are associated with 

better student outcomes.

Methods

In this longitudinal experimental study, 

participating ECHSs used a lottery to 

select students from their applicant pool. 

The study team used data collected 

by NCDPI on measures such as 

attendance, test scores, suspensions 

and expulsions, and dropout status, 

as well as an original survey to track 

outcomes for students who were 

and were not admitted to ECHS.11

Information on implementation was 

collected through student and staff 

surveys and site visits.

Sample: For the results presented in 

the brief, the analyses were conducted 

on data collected by NCDPI for 

718 9th graders in eight cohorts in 

six ECHSs and associated control 

schools. The team also collected 

original survey data for one cohort 

of 574 9th graders in 10 sites.12 The 

treatment and control students were 

statistically comparable on the majority 

of baseline characteristics. A slightly 

higher percentage of students in the 

control group were previously retained, 

and students in the treatment group 

had slightly higher 8th grade math 

performance. The final impact analyses 

account for these differences.

Results

Ninth grade outcomes indicate that 

ECHSs were meeting their goal of 

increasing college readiness and 

establishing a more positive school 

environment. Specifics on the key 

findings appear below. 

Finding 1: More ECHS 

students were on-track 

for college. 

The ECHS study found that ECHS 

students were enrolling in and 

successfully completing Algebra I at 

a higher rate compared to control 

group students. Figure 1 shows that, 

by the end of 9th grade, 97 percent13

of ECHS students had taken Algebra I 

compared to 76 percent of the control 

group. However, taking courses is only 

part of the equation—schools must 

also ensure that students succeed in 

these courses. Figure 1 also shows 

that 81 percent of the students in 

the ECHS successfully completed14 

Algebra I by the end of 9th grade 

compared to 67 percent of the control 

group. The data in this figure include 

any pre-existing differences between 

the two ECHS and control groups 

and also include students who took 

Algebra I in 8th grade.15 When those 

differences are taken into account 

and when we account for the fact 

that students are clustered together 

in schools, we find that the difference 

between ECHS and control students 

is 11 percentage points in Algebra I 

course-taking and 6 percentage points 

in Algebra I success. 

Algebra I is only the first in a set of math 

courses required for college. The set 

also includes Geometry, Algebra II, and 

one math course beyond Algebra II. 

When we look at findings relative to 

the number of these courses taken, 

we find that statistically significantly 

more ECHS students were taking and 

succeeding in college preparatory 

mathematics courses. Figure 2 shows 

that, by the end of 9th grade, virtually 

all of the ECHS students had taken 

at least one college preparatory 

Figure 1: Algebra 1 Taking and Success

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Algebra 1 Taking

97.0%*

76.3%*

80.9%

67.3%

Algebra 1 Success

*p<.001 ECHS Control
A Better 9th Grade: Early Results from an Experimental Study of the Early College High School Model Page 5

mathematics course, compared to 

around three-quarters of the control 

group. This finding is particularly 

compelling because it shows that 

almost one-quarter of students who 

applied to the ECHS but were not 

randomly selected and thus attended 

a different school did not take the 

classes they needed to be on track for 

college by the end of 9th grade. 

The other core 9th grade course is 

English I. We found that the ECHSs 

had slightly higher course taking and 

completion rates, although these 

differences were not statistically 

significant. By the end of 9th grade, 

96 percent of ECHS students had 

taken English I, and 87 percent had 

successfully completed it, compared 

to 93 percent and 83 percent in the 

control group. 

Overall, the ECHS model is having 

a positive impact on students’ 

preparation and readiness for college, 

particularly in the area of math. The 

next finding looks at these impacts for 

specific target populations. 

Figure 1

Finding 2: The ECHS 

model appears to be 

closing the performance 

gap among sub-groups in 

two 9th grade courses.

The ECHS model is aimed at students 

who are underrepresented in college: 

those eligible for free or reduced-price 

lunch, those who would be the first 

in their family to attend college, and 

those who are members of racial and 

ethnic groups underrepresented in 

college (African-American, Hispanic, 

and Native American). Results from 

the study show that the ECHS model 

appears to be reducing some gaps 

Table 1: Gaps in Successful Completion Rates in Algebra I and 

English I — Minority vs. Non-Minority Students

Successful Completion of 

Algebra I

Successful Completion of 

English I

Minority

NonMinority Gap MinorityNonMinority Gap

ECHS 79.4% 81.5% -2.1% 87.4% 87.4% 0%

Control 57.3% 70.9% -13.6% 76.5% 85.7% -9.2%

that occur between members of target 

populations and other students. For 

example, Table 1 shows how the 

gaps between the percentages of 

minority and non-minority students 

successfully completing Algebra I and 

English I were smaller in the ECHS 

than in the traditional high school. The 

ECHS group showed no differences 

in English I completion rates and only 

two percentage points separating 

minority and non-minority students’ 

completion rates in Algebra I. In 

comparison, the control group had 

gaps of approximately 14 percentage 

points between minority and nonminority groups in the control group in 

Algebra I and 9 percentage points in 

English I.16 For these two courses, the 

ECHSs have essentially no access 

and success gap for minority students.

Finding 3: Students in the 

ECHS were less likely to 

be suspended and were 

absent fewer days.

The study also looked at the number 

of students who had been suspended 

and the number of days of school 

missed for both ECHS and control 

students. 

During their 9th grade year, 3 percent 

of the ECHS students had been 

suspended at least once compared 

Figure 2: Impact on College Prep Course Taking

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

At least one course

97.5%*

76.3%*

38.6%*

*p<.005

22.7%*

At least two courses

ECHS Control
Page 6 SERVECenter

to 21 percent of the control group 

(see Figure 3). When pre-existing 

differences and clustering are taken 

into account, the impact was 

13 percentage points. 

For attendance, both groups had 

similar numbers of excused absences 

(2.86 for the ECHS and 2.94 for 

the control), but ECHS students 

had significantly fewer unexcused 

absences. The ECHS students had an 

average of 3.85 unexcused absences 

compared to 6.41 in the control group 

(the adjusted impact was 1.5 days, 

a difference that was statistically 

significant at p<.05). 

Finding 4: ECHS students 

reported higher levels of 

academic engagement. 

The study also examined the impact 

of ECHS participation on students’ 

attitudes and behaviors. Results 

from a survey administered to both 

treatment and control students 

showed that 9th grade ECHS 

students reported being more actively 

engaged in school-related activities 

than students in the control group, 

a statistically significant difference 

(effect size of .23). ECHS students 

were more likely to respond that they 

were likely to do things such as ask 

questions and contribute to class 

discussions, work with classmates 

outside of class, and meet with their 

instructors to discuss their learning. 

This finding is particularly important, 

since high school teachers often 

struggle to motivate and engage 

their students. There was a negative 

impact in the area of self-efficacy 

in English-Language Arts, with 

ECHS students reporting statistically 

significantly lower feelings of selfefficacy (effect size of -.21). There 

was no difference in mathematics 

self-efficacy.

Finding 5: ECHS students 

were more likely to 

report positive school 

experiences than 

students in the control 

group. 

Results from student surveys showed 

that ECHS students reported more 

positive school experiences than 

students in the control group on 

all dimensions examined, with all 

differences statistically significant. 

ECHS students reported that 

their teachers had much higher 

expectations for students. Similarly, 

they indicated a more challenging high 

school experience and significantly 

more positive relationships with 

their teachers. ECHS students also 

reported participating in a higher level 

of rigorous and relevant instruction. 

Finally, more ECHS students reported 

receiving more types of academic and 

social-emotional support activities 

more frequently. Table 2 shows the 

effect sizes for each of the scales 

examined. Effect sizes are measures 

of how big the difference between the 

two groups is in terms of standard 

deviation units. The Institute of 

Education Sciences regards effect 

sizes of +0.25 or higher as potentially 

substantively important in education 

studies. Using this guideline, all of 

these effect sizes can be viewed as 

being substantively important in terms 

of impacts on students’ academic 

experiences.

“I like how they play on our strengths and weaknesses because the teachers, they don’t 

focus like, ‘Oh, you need to know this for the test.’ They’re more focused on what you’re 

going to retain and know in the long run. I really like that because I like to learn. I want to 

know something.”

 – ECHS Student

Figure 3: Percent Suspended in 

9th Grade

ECHS Control

2.7%*

20.6%*

*p<.001

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%
A Better 9th Grade: Early Results from an Experimental Study of the Early College High School Model Page 7

1. American Diploma Project (2004). Ready or not: Creating a high school diploma that counts. Washington, DC: Achieve, Inc.

2. National Center for Education Statistics (2004). Condition of education. Retrieved from http://www.nces.ed.gov/ programs/coe/ 

3. North Carolina Department of Public Instruction (2009, August 6). NC high school graduation rate improves. Retrieved from http://www.ncpublicschools.org/newsroom/news/2009-10/20090806-01

4. National Center for Higher Education Management Systems. (2009). Student pipeline - transition and completion rates from 9th grade to college. Retrieved from http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/

index.php?measure=72 

5. Isakson, K., & Jarvis, P., (1999). The adjustment of adolescents during the transition into high school: a short-term longitudinal study. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 28(1), 1-26. 

6. Haney, W., Madaus, G., Abrams, L., Wheelock, A., Miao, J., & Gruia, I. (2004). The education pipeline in the United States, 1970-2000. Center for the Study of Testing, Evaluation, and Educational 

Policy. Retrieved from http://www.bc.edu/research/nbetpp/statements/nbr3.pdf 

7. Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The on-track indicator as a predictor of high school graduation. Chicago: Consortium on Chicago School Research. 

8. Finkelstein, N. D., & Fong, A. B. (2008). Course-taking patterns and preparation for postsecondary education in California’s public university systems among minority youth. (Issues & Answers Report, 

REL 2008–No. 035). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, Regional Educational 

Laboratory West. Retrieved from http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/edlabs. 

9. For more information about Early College High Schools in North Carolina, please visit the North Carolina New Schools Project at www.newschoolsproject.org. Please note that there are Early College 

High Schools in North Carolina that are not a part of this initiative. 

10. Some schools include a thirteenth grade in order to give students time to complete all of the required credits.

11. An important note about the sample: this study uses an intent-to-treat approach, which means that any student who was originally assigned to the treatment group remains in that group, even if he 

or she did not enroll in the ECHS or left it at any point. This means that the study’s findings are not affected by attrition from the ECHS. It also means that we are likely underestimating the model’s 

impact because results are included for students who were no longer attending the ECHS. 

12. This analysis includes administrative data only through the 2007-08 school year since there is a delay in processing the data. The survey data includes data from 2007-08 and from 2008-09, which 

allows us to include more sites. 

13. The percentages reported in this brief are all unadjusted, which means that they do not take into account any initial, pre-9th grade differences between students in the two groups. In addition, they do 

not account for the fact that students are clustered in schools. We do take both these situations into account when we are making statements about the overall program impact. For that reason, the 

reported adjusted differences will vary from the differences between the unadjusted group means.

14. Because the research team does not have access to course grades, successfully completing the course is indicated by students taking and passing the mandated End-of-Course exam. It should be 

noted that the rates reported here are not traditional pass rates, which reflect only the percentage of students who passed the test out of the ones who took the test. Instead, these figures look at the 

total number of 9th grade students; doing this allows us to incorporate both access to courses and success in those courses into our measures. 

15. All of the math coursetaking findings include students who may have taken Algebra I or other high school courses in middle school. We chose to report these results because it allows us to look at the 

proportion of the entire population of students who are taking the courses they need to be on-track for college. We get similar results if we look only at the students who had not taken Algebra I prior to 

9th grade. 

16. These proportions are unadjusted means, and we have not tested these differences for statistical significance. 

“Teachers are more willing to stop if one student doesn’t understand something and work with 

that student while still trying to emphasize the point with the other students to help everyone 

get it. I guess that’s the biggest difference I saw from other schools I’ve been to; that it’s a 

close relationship with the teachers, and you don’t have to be afraid to ask questions here.”

 – ECHS Student

Table 2: Impact of ECHS on 

Student Experiences 

Scale Effect Size 

Academic and 

Social Support .95*

High 

Expectations .66*

Rigorous 

Instruction .52*

Relevant 

Instruction .43*

Relationships .35*

Challenge .31*

*Significant at p≤.001. 

Footnotes

Conclusions

According to 9th grade results from 

this rigorous, experimental study, 

North Carolina’s Early College High 

Schools are creating more positive 

school environments for students 

resulting in improved attendance, 

reduced suspensions, and increased 

numbers of students on-track for 

college. These schools are also 

successfully expanding the initial part 

of the college preparatory pipeline for 

students of all backgrounds. 

As this study continues, more schools 

and students will be included in the 

sample. This will allow us to determine 

if these results hold true across more 

schools. In addition, the research 

team will follow the students to look at 

the impact of the model on students’ 

success in upper grades, as well as 

the impact on students’ dropout rates. 

For more information about the study, 

please contact Julie Edmunds, the 

study’s director, at SERVE Center 

at the University of North Carolina 

at Greensboro: 336-574-8727 or 

jedmunds@serve.org. 

This material is based upon work supported by the Institute of Education Sciences under grant number #R305R060022. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this 

publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute of Education Sciences.
Page 8 SERVECenter

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