United States Department of 

Agriculture

Forest Service

Research and

Development

FS-917a

June 2009

Forest Service Global Change

Research Strategy, 2009–2019

Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 3

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Overview: A Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy for the Coming Decade . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Climate Change and Ecosystem Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Mitigation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3. Research To Provide Decision Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Decision Support for Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Current Research Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Near-Term Research Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific Collaboration, and Science Delivery . . . . . . . . 15

Corporate Strategies for Addressing Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Scientific Collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 

Science Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

5. Concluding Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Compiled and Edited By:

Allen Solomon, Washington Office

Richard Birdsey, Northern Research Station

Linda Joyce, Rocky Mountain Research Station

Jennifer Hayes, Rocky Mountain Research Station

Contents
4 Forest Service Research and Development

Objective

In keeping with the research goals of the U.S. Climate 

Change Science Program, the Research and Development 

agenda of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), helps define climate change policy and 

develop best management practices for forests (both rural 

and urban) and grasslands. These actions are taken to sustain ecosystem health, adjust management for ecosystem 

services (“adaptation”), and increase carbon sequestration 

(“mitigation”), all under changing climate conditions. The 

fundamental research focus of the Forest Service Global 

Change Research Strategy is to increase understanding of 

forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems so that they 

can be managed in a way that sustains and provides ecosystem services for future generations.

Basis

Climate changes already observed and those predicted for 

the future differ considerably from those of the past. Accordingly, ecosystem services in the future will differ from 

those of the past. Land management must be capable of 

enhancing adaptation of these ecosystems to increasing 

climate changes while removing carbon from the atmosphere through sequestration in ecosystems and wood/energy products. At the same time, geographic and temporal 

variability in climate also will increase. These geographic 

differences manifest in both biophysical conditions and 

socioeconomic systems. Therefore, land management plans 

and actions must differ locally to account for this variability.

Yet, the sum of the impacts of these local actions must be 

considered in policy, which requires these local actions be 

linked to national plans.

To address these issues, a Forest Service Global Change 

Research Strategy and the concomitant research activities 

are needed to balance and coordinate scientific responses.

This strategy is the scientific basis for a unified approach to 

managing ecosystems services within the range of uncertainty provided by a changing climate.

Executive Summary

Approach

The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy balances research across a range of management, science, and 

science delivery actions aimed at developing adaptation 

and mitigation approaches to sustain healthy ecosystems.

The following research elements serve as the organizing 

mechanism.

1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability 

(Adaptation). The first element focuses on research 

that will advance management options under a 

changing climate to enhance ecosystem health and 

sustainability; ensure the flow of ecosystem services, 

such as water, wildlife, biodiversity, recreation, forest 

and grassland products; and reduce losses of ecosystem function from climate-altered disturbances, such 

as wildfire, insects, and invasive species.

2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration

(Mitigation). The second element focuses on 

research that will assist managers in (a) enhancing 

carbon sequestration via actions that could increase 

forest growth rates and area of forested lands;

(b) enhancing biomass extraction and utilization 

research; and (c) understanding long-term carbon 

product storage pools. These capabilities cannot be 

realized without the sustainability being supported 

by research for the first element.

3. Research To Provide Decision Support. The third 

element integrates the first two research elements by 

developing decision-support tools and approaches 

for policymakers, planners, and land managers.

4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific 

Collaboration, and Science Delivery. The fourth 

element is focused on the shared research needs 

for infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and science delivery that will incorporate the research and 

applications in the first three elements into natural 

resource planning and management.

Climate changes already observed and those predicted for the future 

differ considerably from those of the past.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 5

Objective

A century of wildland policy and management has helped 

create large ecosystem commons in the United States that 

produce a wide variety of goods and services enjoyed by 

all Americans. These ecosystem commons, however, are 

threatened by several rapidly intensifying global forces,

including climate change, land-use change, invasive

species, and changes in the global competitiveness of

the U.S. forest sector. In addition to traditional roles in 

supplying wood products, clean water and air, wildlife 

habitat, recreation, and so on, forests also play an important role in reducing the buildup of greenhouse gases in 

the atmosphere by sequestering carbon. Now, they are also 

being viewed as potentially important sources of biomass 

energy feedstocks. Alternatively, forests, woodlands, and 

grasslands can become unintended sources of carbon to 

the atmosphere when large wildfires and insect infestations arise, or land is converted to developed uses. Climate 

change and these naturally occurring disturbances altered 

by climate change will threaten ecosystem functions and 

the suite of ecosystem services from forests and grasslands.

Adjustments in natural or human systems to the changing environment (“adaptation”) may result in beneficial 

opportunities or moderately negative effects. And, while 

forest, woodland, and grassland health and productivity 

are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, these large 

ecosystem commons are habitats for plants and animals 

and will serve as landscapes where the process of natural 

adaptation to climate change is likely to occur.

Land managers are being asked to address the challenges 

of climate change with inadequate and often conflicting 

information. Decisions being made today by public and 

private land and resource managers will have implications 

through the next century, especially as they relate to the 

adaptation of ecosystems.

The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy will 

help identify best management practices for urban and

rural forests, woodlands, and grasslands to sustain

ecosystem health and a range of ecosystem services 

(“adaptation”), while also increasing carbon sequestration 

(“mitigation”)—all under changing climate conditions.

The fundamental research focus of this strategy is to 

increase understanding of forest, woodland, and grassland 

ecosystems so that they can be managed in a way that 

sustains and provides ecosystem services for future generations.

This document describes the current and future Forest 

Service research strategy for global change. Global change 

encompasses all of the environmental phenomena related 

to global-scale anthropogenic forces: changing climate and 

climate variability, shifting land uses, changing atmospheric 

contaminants, increasing nitrogen deposition, and so on.

The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy reviews 

the basic functions the research must serve and the strategy 

needed to attain them. It is linked to related Forest Service 

research program strategies, including those focused on 

wildfire, invasive species, insects, and biomass and biofuels.

Research defined herein will support the needs of the broad 

range of stakeholders we serve including National Forest 

System (NFS) planners and managers; other Federal, State, 

and local land managers; private landowners; industry; and 

others. The strategy overview is aimed at Forest Service 

The fundamental research focus of this 

strategy is to increase understanding of

forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems 

so that they can be managed in a way that 

sustains and provides ecosystem services

for future generations.

Overview: A Forest Service Global Change

Research Strategy for the Coming Decade, 2009–2019
6 Forest Service Research and Development

land managers and administrators; global change scientists 

and administrators in other Federal, State, and local agencies; and citizens that may wish to examine Forest Service 

research goals in global change.

Basis

The climate of the Earth is changing and will continue to 

change for many decades in response to the buildup of 

greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The “fingerprint” of GHGs has been known for some time, including: 

•	 Warming in the lower atmosphere (troposphere)

while cooling in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere); 

•	 Warming more at the poles than at the equator;

•	 Warming more over land than over the sea;

•	 Warming more in winter than in summer;

•	 Warming more at night than in daytime;

•	 Increasing intensity of the hydrological cycle,

including more rain in high latitudes and less in

the subtropics; and

•	 Increasing climate variability producing more large

storms and longer, more intense droughts.

As a result, the climate changes already measured, and 

those predicted in the future, differ considerably from place 

to place. The Southwestern United States is encountering 

increasing drought; the Northwest is undergoing longer, 

dryer summers and declining snowpacks; and the Northeast 

has seen increased rainfall and flooding, warmer winters, 

and longer growing seasons. The Southeast has had warmer winters with dryer summers; and the tropics (Puerto Rico 

and Hawaii) have had increasing warmth and aridity, rising 

sea levels, and tropical storms of increasing intensity.

Forests and grasslands will experience regional and local 

changes in temperature and precipitation. They are also 

likely to experience increases in the variability of weather, 

such as droughts, storms, and heat waves. Further, other 

global forces—such as land use, air pollution, and invasive 

species—will interact with these climate changes, further 

affecting forests and grasslands across the United States.

Because the ecosystems in these regions also differ, land 

management actions will need to vary widely in response 

to these differing climate changes and ecological effects. A 

fundamental challenge posed by changing climate must be 

resolved through land management—the need to remove 

carbon from the atmosphere by increasing its sequestration 

in ecosystems and wood/energy products, while enhancing 

the adaptation of these ecosystems to increasing changes 

due to climate. Additionally, managers in the NFS, in working to maintain the variety of ecosystem goods and services 

demanded by the public, may use quite different approaches in specific locales than those used by other landowners 

nearby because their goals and objectives may differ. For 

example, NFS could be surrounded by landowners focused 

only on wildlife, recreation, or commercial timber. All of 

these considerations argue for a localized approach to land 

management.

Land managers have conveyed a sense of urgency and a 

real-time need for information. They are faced with planning for and making climate-change-related decisions today. They need all available scientific information to support 

these decisions. The needs for this scientific information 

will be honed in real time if a healthy learning environment 

is developed where researchers and managers testing new 

adaptation strategies share their successes and failures 

across landscapes, regions, and agencies. Land managers 

recently reported a variety of research needs, which can 

generally be divided into four categories.

First, there is the strong need simply to understand the basic concepts associated with 

global change relevant to land management (e.g., vocabulary, ecosystem 

responses, etc.).

Second is a need to understand how 

climate change can be integrated 

into multiple-use management (e.g., 

balancing stocking densities with 

other ecosystem services provisions, 

climate impacts on fire, etc.).

Third, tools are needed to implement 

climate change strategies in the specific 

forests being managed (e.g., local future 

Because the

ecosystems in these

regions also differ, land

management actions will need 

to vary widely in response 

to these differing climate 

changes and ecological 

effects.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 7

climate scenarios, vegetation projection models, vulnerabilities and risk predictions, etc.).

Fourth is the need for increased interagency cooperation 

and outreach to citizens and other stakeholders (e.g., adjacent landscape issues, stakeholder input to decisions and 

actions, etc.).

A Forest Service national global change strategy and the 

concomitant research needed to implement it must be 

in place to balance and coordinate the scientific basis for 

managing ecosystem services within the uncertainty of 

changing climates, land use, and atmospheric chemistry.

Approach

Forests, woodlands, and grasslands have an important role 

in mitigating climate change while adapting to climate 

change. Mitigation addresses ways that ecosystems can 

sequester carbon, ways to increase carbon stored in wood 

products, ways to reduce fossil fuel use in manufacturing, 

and ways that forests and woodlands can provide renewable energy from woody biomass to replace fossil fuel 

consumption. Mitigation also includes ways the agency can 

reduce its environmental footprint and lead by example in 

greening our practices. Adaptation in contrast is focused on: 

•	 The vulnerabilities of ecosystems (e.g., vegetation,

wildlife, water) to different future climates and disturbance regimes in diverse geographic regions; 

•	 The adaptive capacity of ecological, economic, and

social systems; 

•	 Management actions that will help sustain ecosystem function and minimize losses of ecosystem 

services; 

•	 Different sources of uncertainty (environmental conditions, models, data, resources); and 

•	 Decision-support tools to assist managers as they

plan for and adjust management in a future increasingly influenced by changes in climate.

This planning melds adaptation and mitigation inextricably: 

There can be no sustainable increase in the national inventory of carbon sequestered in our forests and grasslands 

without maintaining the health of the Nation’s ecosystems.

The understanding needed to attain these goals also

requires integrated research on ecosystem dynamics and 

the basic terrestrial carbon cycle.

This document balances research across a range of

management, science, and technology transfer actions.

Research is aimed at developing adaptation and mitigation 

approaches to ensure that forests, woodlands, and grasslands have the capacity to maintain health, productivity, 

and diversity while meeting carbon sequestration needs.

The strategy closely corresponds with the research focus 

and goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program 

(CCSP), in particular with the needs for management and 

research identified in the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment 

Product (SAP) 2.2, “The First State of the Carbon Cycle 

Report (SOCCR): the North American Carbon Budget and 

Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle;” CCSP SAP 4.2, 

“Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems,” CCSP SAP 

4.3, “The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land 

Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity;” and the 

CCSP SAP 4.4 report, “Preliminary Review of Adaptation 

Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources.”

This strategy contains four integrated elements aimed at 

enhancing the management of forests, woodlands, and 

grasslands under changing climate:

1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation). The first element focuses on research that 

will advance management options under a changing 

climate to enhance ecosystem health and sustainability; ensure the flow of ecosystem services, such 

as water, wildlife, biodiversity, recreation, forest and 

grassland products; and reduce losses of ecosystem 

function from climate-altered disturbances, such as 

wildfire, insects, and invasive species.

2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Mitigation). The second element focuses on research 

that will assist managers in (a) enhancing carbon 

sequestration via actions that could increase forest 

growth rates and area of forested lands; (b) enhancing biomass extraction and utilization research; and 

(c) understanding long-term carbon product storage 

pools. These capabilities cannot be realized without 

the sustainability being supported by research for the 

first element.

3. Research To Provide Decision Support. The third element integrates the first two research elements by 

developing decision-support tools and approaches 

for policymakers, planners, and land managers.

4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure, Scientific 

Collaboration, and Science Delivery. The fourth element is focused on the shared research needs for 

infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and science 

delivery that will incorporate the research and

applications of the first three elements into natural 

resource planning and management.
8 Forest Service Research and Development

1. Research To Enhance Ecosystem Sustainability (Adaptation)

Climate Change and

Ecosystem Sustainability

Plants and animals are adapted to local climates. Paleoecological and historical ecological studies have documented 

that plants and animals have responded and adapted to 

past changes in these local climates. Natural adaptation 

can mean adapting to the local climate or migrating to 

reach a more favorable climate. These adaptations often 

result in new combinations of species redefining ecosystems. Because the climate changes in the 21st century are 

likely to be uniquely rapid and coupled with other stresses, 

including a landscape fragmented by urban and industrial 

development, natural adaptation processes may be limited.

The capacity of forests and grasslands to maintain current 

health, productivity, diversity, and resilience will likely be 

compromised under this changing climate. The efficacy 

of current management practices applied under a changing climate will depend upon the nature of the climatic 

changes (spatial, temporal), the vulnerability of ecosystems 

to these changes, and the current status and degree of human alteration of the ecosystems (i.e., presence of invasives, departure from historical fire regimes, condition of 

watersheds). Species, varieties, and even whole ecosystems 

that are adapted to the climate of the past centuries may 

become progressively more stressed and dysfunctional. At 

the same time, plants and animals that may be appropriate 

to future climate in any given locale may currently exist in 

other locations, for example, at lower latitudes or at lower 

elevations in mountainous terrain. Developing an adaptation strategy to maintain and enhance forest and rangeland sustainability will involve evaluating different types of 

uncertainty (e.g., environmental conditions, models, data, 

resources, planning horizons, adaptive capacity tied to 

place) so that multiple adaptation options can be identified 

for the management of forest and grasslands under changing climates.

Current Research Goals

Research on adaptation is primarily focused on maintaining 

ecosystem health as much as possible, thereby protecting 

the goods and services ecosystems produce (e.g., removing 

air pollutants, providing clean and abundant water supplies, sustaining habitats to maintain wildlife and biodiversity, cycling important nutrients, reducing success of exotic 

invasive species, providing recreation and aesthetics). Identifying the key vulnerabilities will require an understanding of 

the magnitude of the potential impacts, the timing of impacts, the persistence and reversibility of impacts, the likelihood of impacts and confidence of those estimates, the potential for adaptation, the distributional aspect of impacts 

and vulnerabilities (disadvantaged sectors or communities), 

and the importance of the system at risk. Forest, woodland, 

and grassland ecosystems are set within a context of social 

and economic systems. Adaptation and sustaining health, 

productivity, and biodiversity of these ecosystems will be a 

function of the adaptive capacity and interactions of all of 

these combined systems.

The approach to adaptation is to affect ecosystem processes by altering growth, composition, and structure to 

better withstand the suite of environmental stresses from 

changing climate, pests, pollutants, storms, and unnaturally 

severe wildfire. As climatic stress increases in the future, 

Because the climate changes in the 21st 

century are likely to be uniquely rapid and 

coupled with other stresses, including

a landscape fragmented by urban and

industrial development, natural

adaptation processes may be limited.

Photo by Larry Korhnak.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 9

plant and animal population adjustments, range shifts, and 

other adaptations may need to be facilitated so that species 

and ecosystems are capable of establishing and maturing 

under new climate regimes without catastrophic failure.

For example, reducing tree densities can enhance the water 

and nutrients available to remaining trees. Altering species 

composition and managing for uneven-age forests also 

increase tree resistance to pests, reduce the spread of wildfire, and enhance resistance to pollutants such as ozone 

and sulfur dioxide. Some species and ecosystems may 

require intensive management actions to maintain viability 

or resilience. Others may require reduction of current stressors, and still others may require less intensive management 

to sustain the production of the values and services that 

healthy forests provide.

Research Needs

Research actions to:

•	 Improve our understanding of the potential impacts

of a changing climate on the functioning of ecosystems and of the management actions required to 

reduce the impacts.

•	 Enhance our understanding of the changing effects

of climate on populations, communities, ecosystems, 

and landscapes, as well as on ecological processes at 

multiple scales.

•	 Expand our current knowledge of paleoecology and

of paleoclimate-vegetation dynamics to identify metrics to monitor ecosystems under a changing climate 

and to define range of variability at local sites across 

ecosystems.

•	 Develop genetic information to identify species to

plant and seed sources for reforestation, afforestation, and gene conservation.

•	 Document interactions between multiple

stresses under a changing climate and 

potential for linear/nonlinear threshold responses to climate change.

•	 Enhance our understanding

of the changing relationships 

between climate and climatemediated disturbances, such 

as fire, insects, and disease.

•	 Develop needed scientific

information and biotic and environmental monitoring methods 

and models (including scalability 

and uncertainty measures) for decisionmaking in 

resource management and greater understanding 

of human and organizational adaptation to climate 

change.

•	 Focus efforts to increase and retain the sustainability

of ecosystem services, particularly of water supplies, 

wildlife and fish populations, endangered species, 

and forest and grassland products.

•	 Enhance understanding of the changing relationships between climate, land use change, and 

climate-mediated disturbances.

•	 Reduce the uncertainties in climate projections and

ecosystem responses to increase adaptive management options and improve evaluation of tradeoffs 

when managing for all ecosystem services.

•	 Develop new methods to monitor and quantify the

impacts of climate change and elevated carbon dioxide on ecosystem productivity and water, nutrient, 

and energy cycling.

•	 Begin experimental testing of management and adaptation options on the ground to develop strategies 

for risk-spreading and conserving/enhancing broadsense ecosystem productivity and health.

Near-Term Research Products

The research goals attainable in the next decade (near-term 

research products) that involve enhancing ecosystem resilience under increasing climate stress will focus on developing and implementing a coordinated series of regional 

The efficacy of 

current management 

practices applied under

a changing climate will

depend upon the nature

of the climatic

changes.
10 Forest Service Research and Development

Figure 1b. Eastside ponderosa pine forest, Lassen 

National Forest, after thinning to approximately 90 

to 110 trees/acre. Removed 28.5 green tons per acre, 

40-percent saw-logs, 60-percent chips and biomass.

Thinning generated $124 per acre and increased 

the amount of water and nutrients available to each 

remaining tree. Photo from David Peterson, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

syntheses on the potential vulnerabilities and ecosystem 

responses to a changing climate for application by land 

managers. Specifically, Research and Development will:

•	 Conduct integrated assessments of climate change

impacts on ecosystems to determine potential impacts on ecosystem services, assess the vulnerabilities 

across different spatial scales including identification 

of potential “hotspots,” assess potential management strategies, and uncover potential unintended 

consequences of mitigation and adaptation actions.

•	 Develop educational tools (courses, workshops,

manuals, models) for all Forest Service personnel, 

teaching the principles of climate change science 

and its applications in planning and managing sustainable ecosystems under changing climate.

•	 Enhance existing quantitative tools used in land

management and develop new tools to assist in 

the analysis of the impacts of climate change on 

terrestrial and aquatic systems and the appropriate 

management responses.

•	 Improve Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessments

by adding analysis of climate change impacts on 

wildlife and water, in conjunction with the analysis 

of climate change impacts on forests linked to the 

analysis of carbon sequestration/biofuel/energy options and their impacts on ecosystems.

•	 Develop coordination for a large-scale research program and the associated means of support and execution aimed at predicting national climate change 

impacts.

•	 Use pilot projects, particularly in the National Experimental Forests and Ranges, to develop and test 

strategies and systems for conserving and enhancing resource (e.g., soil, water, habitat, biodiversity, 

vegetation) productivity and health.

Figure 1a. Adaptation to climate change: Eastside 

ponderosa pine forest, Lassen National Forest, with 

about 300 trees per acre. Stress on individual trees 

from warmth and drought can be relieved in part by 

thinning the stand while maintaining the age and size 

structure. Photo from David Peterson, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 11

Carbon sequestration research is focused 

on improving understanding of the

exchange of carbon between the land, 

atmosphere, and oceans, and how

global change affects these dynamics.

2. Research To Increase Carbon Sequestration (Mitigation)

Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration

Mitigation research is aimed at reducing atmospheric CO2

concentration by increasing the amount of CO2 removed 

from the atmosphere by U.S. forest and grassland ecosystems (including agroforested and urban forest ecosystems).

Transferring biomass out of forests and into wood products 

is critical to enhancing continued carbon sequestration into 

forests. Relative to some other materials, wood requires less 

fossil fuel in harvest and production processes. Sustainably 

managed forest and range resources can replace fossil fuels 

with fuels derived from biomass, which use carbon already 

present in the global carbon cycle, rather than obtaining 

new carbon from fossil fuels. Silvicultural and genetics 

research help to increase growth and enhance sustainability. Avoiding deforestation and preserving forests also have 

strategic roles.

Current Research Goals

Carbon sequestration research is focused on improving 

understanding of the exchange of carbon between the 

land, atmosphere, and oceans, and how global change 

affects these dynamics; assisting public, State, and private 

landowners and the forest industry with integrating carbon 

management into their forest management and production 

goals; and assisting policymakers in balancing carbon sequestration and forest resilience with requirements imposed 

by the need to sustain ecosystem services. Carbon sequestration research includes:

•	 Developing new concepts and information from

monitoring and modeling of CO2

 dynamics of forests 

in response to management and disturbance, from 

studying land use changes and their causes, and 

from experiments to determine how increasing 

atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect forest growth 

under changing climate and air pollutant stresses.

•	 Inventing new wood products from currently unused

forest growth, developing new processes to generate fuels from cellulose more efficiently, and creating 

new equipment that minimizes transportation and 

fuel costs while processing small diameter woody 

biomass and other residues.

•	 Performing analyses to document and reduce the

carbon “footprint” of forest management and 

administrative activities within and outside the Forest 

Service.

•	 Continuing and improving monitoring systems at

multiple geographic and temporal scales that integrate data from extensive inventories, remote sensing, and intensive observation sites, such as Forest 

Service experimental forests and ranges.

Research Needs

Research actions to support increased carbon sequestration 

focus on evaluating the current processes and status of carbon sequestration and the fate of its removals to bioproducts, more specifically: 

•	 Synthesize and analyze what we know and don’t

know with respect to net carbon sequestration in 

forests and wood products.

•	 Expand monitoring to more fully represent the U.S.

forest and range landscape, including all of the ecosystem carbon pools that are likely to be affected by 

land management and natural disturbance.
12 Forest Service Research and Development

Figure 2. Mitigation of climate change impacts: Monitoring forest

carbon exchange with eddy-flux towers, here at Forest Service Northern Research Station facilities in Howland, ME. The towers support

the apparatus used to measure the hourly uptake and release of CO2

by trees and the soil and determine impacts on carbon storage by

management treatments over daily, seasonal, and annual growth 

cycles. Photo from John Lee, University of Maine.

•	 Determine the impact of land use and management

activities (e.g., restoration, silviculture) and climate 

change on global warming potential, which includes 

carbon, albedo, transpiration, and trace greenhouse 

gases.

•	 Improve the understanding of factors controlling

land-use change, the quantification of past trends, 

and the ability to make projections and estimates of 

long-term impacts on carbon stocks.

•	 Quantify and model spatial distribution of the forms

of carbon in soil and the effects of management, climate, and land-use change on the time of residence 

for those forms.

•	 Provide estimates of local and national woody biomass supply to meet the increasing interest in fuels 

from biomass.

•	 Improve technical, ecological, economic, and carbon

performance of forest operations to produce woody 

biomass for fuels at competitive costs.

•	 Develop and use life-cycle analysis to improve forest

management and wood-use alternatives for bioenergy and other bioproducts.

•	 Provide integrated strategic evaluation of local,

regional, and national policies and management

actions.

•	 Develop cost-effective tools for verification of actual

carbon sequestration at a local scale, including 

sequestration in soil, and address issues such as leakage and baseline setting.

•	 Quantify the uncertainty in estimates of future

change in ecosystem carbon stocks and wood products in order to conduct risk analysis and build risk 

estimates into carbon management strategies.

•	 Identify market approaches to integrate carbon

management, biofuels production, and timber

management.

•	 Evaluate the social acceptance of alternate carbon

management policies and management practices.

Near-Term Research Products

Carbon sequestration products will inform policymakers, 

land managers, and citizens on the many issues involved in 

this strategy. Specifically, Research and Development will:

•	 Develop a concise, approachable, and authoritative

synthesis of the literature about what is known, uncertain, and unknown regarding carbon sequestration and management.

•	 Implement regional case studies on changes in land

management that could increase carbon sequestration on land and in products that will serve as 

examples for managers.

•	 Augment existing decision-support tools to include

life cycle inventory and analysis (measurement of 

greenhouse gas emissions and sinks, energy use, and 

costs and benefits from regeneration to harvest to 

material use and disposal).

•	 Improve RPA assessments by adding analysis of

biofuels, carbon, and commodity market supply and 

demand to provide decisionmakers with important 

new information about future carbon sequestration 

potential.

•	 Work with emerging carbon markets and registries

to ensure adoption of consistent and credible

accounting rules and estimation guidelines.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 13

Decision Support for Climate Change

Research to support policy, planning, and land management decisionmaking is aimed at translating the available scientific information into useable management and 

planning information. Research products designed for 

education of forestry personnel, as well as of other stakeholders and the general public, are designed to promote 

decisionmaking based on best available science. Adaptation and mitigation research will have little impact without 

clearly articulated needs by practitioners, decisionmakers, 

and policymakers or a clear understanding by the various 

publics. Hence, this research must be planned in response 

to specific decision-support needs expressed by the user 

community.

Current Research Goals

Research for decision support is primarily comprised of

synthesis and assessment. and development of useroriented models. Decision-support research allows us to 

integrate and optimize production of ecosystem services 

under climate change, to modify models currently used in 

land management that will incorporate impacts of climate 

change, to enhance data sets (including regional climate 

scenarios) and computing capabilities that will support 

model development and application, and to carefully analyze and synthesize information for different audiences.

Decision-support research involves: 

•	 Increasing our understanding of environmental

needs by species and ecosystems for successful

adaptation.

•	 Assessing past, current, and future trends in carbon

storage and release.

•	 Revising available forest growth and production

models and wildlife habitat models to include

climate and climate variability.

•	 Revising available physical (e.g., erosion) and hydrological models to include a wider range of extreme 

climatic events (e.g., intense rainfall).

•	 Developing carbon accounting tools for forest

managers.

•	 Implementing pilot land management planning

studies.

•	 Developing education programs to teach managers

and policymakers how to use the decision-support 

models and documents.

It is notable that many of these decision support goals do 

not explicitly involve new scientific research per se, but 

must be based on sound science that has evolved enough 

to address emerging needs.

Research Needs

Research actions to enhance decision support are focused 

primarily on improving and creating management-friendly 

models that can predict ecosystem, population, and habitat 

responses at multiple scales of time and space. Specifically, 

actions include:

•	 Develop models that integrate linkages among climate and other stress agents and responses by biotic 

and physical components of the environment, on 

which understanding of multiple stressors and their 

interactions can be based.

Research products designed for education of forestry personnel, as well as of 

other stakeholders and the general public, 

are designed to promote decisionmaking 

based on best available science.

3. Research To Provide Decision Support
14 Forest Service Research and Development

•	 Determine the important emergent thresholds,

tipping points, and phase transitions of landscapes 

under changing climates, by including these interactions in models used to investigate climate change, 

so that resource managers can anticipate those 

changes and plan accordingly.

•	 Continue the development of economic models and

incorporate them into Integrated Assessment Models 

that simulate the complete system that begins with 

climate change and follows carbon sequestration, 

ecosystem resilience, ecosystem services, forest/

range products, and biofuels.

•	 Develop partnerships among scientists, stakeholders,

and communications experts to provide user-friendly 

information and access in a variety of formats.

•	 Continue to improve decision-support tools for

managing carbon according to the needs of different 

stakeholders, with specific enhancements involving 

more complete accounting for all factors that affect 

global warming potential.

•	 Continue to seek opportunities to engage in cooperative research highlighting Forest Service expertise 

with expertise of other Federal and State researchers.

Near-Term Research Products

Decision-support products expected during the next few 

years involve creating and modifying important resource 

management models to integrate climate change. Specifically, Research and Development will:

•	 Downscale climate-change-model output to provide

climate change scenarios for local applications, alone 

and by working with other agencies (e.g., National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the 

U.S. Department of the Interior) that are pursuing 

this goal.

•	 Modify the widely used planning model, FVS (Forest

Vegetation Simulator), and other landscape models

to include impacts of changing climate and atmospheric chemistry.

•	 Modify or develop continental or regional-scale

models that can assess climate change and impacts 

of other stressors, such as land use and management, including feedbacks to the atmosphere and 

provision of user-friendly interfaces to models that 

currently lack them.

•	 Work with emerging carbon markets and registries

to ensure consistent and credible accounting rules 

and estimation guidelines, and provide access to 

decision-support tools that facilitate carbon 

management.

•	 Support these actions with a

comprehensive effort to consolidate 

existing data sets, to reformat data 

into common data structures, and 

to share these formats and data 

sets with researchers in other 

Federal and State agencies. In so 

doing, the Forest Service will cooperate with other Federal and State 

researchers to form a comprehensive 

program investigating climate change 

in the Nation’s lands.

It is notable that 

many of these decision 

support goals do not explicitly 

involve new scientific research 

per se, but must be based

on sound science that has 

evolved enough to address 

emerging needs.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 15

Corporate Strategies for

Addressing Climate Change

The adaptation, mitigation, and decision support research 

required to generate the science and applications is best 

considered within each research element described above.

However, certain infrastructure, personnel, and technology transfer needs sustain all three research elements and 

require a coordinated national effort within the Forest 

Service. This section describes the infrastructure, scientific 

collaboration, science delivery, and funding needs to support the research elements described above.

Infrastructure

There are national facilities and infrastructure needs critical to the success of Forest Service research in addressing 

climate change. A remote-sensing capability is necessary to 

attain goals for carbon sequestration, ecosystem resilience, 

bioproduct generation, and decision support. A strong program to format and downscale climate model projections 

for research and management use and the ability to monitor changes and the impacts of land management decisions are also critical infrastructure needs. Similarly, all three 

research elements depend on maintaining a strong research 

base in vegetation inventory and analysis (including Forest 

Inventory and Analysis), genetic analysis and selection, air/

land/water monitoring, modeling at different scales, and 

integrated assessment modeling to reveal unintended consequences of future policies.

Even with good interagency cooperation, it is clear that the 

Forest Service needs to create a comprehensive environmental simulation modeling capacity with the required personnel and computing infrastructure specifically designed 

to meet the needs of Forest Service and State and private 

resource managers in land management planning and 

project management. The Forest Service must be capable 

of modeling air, water, forests, woodlands, and grasslands, 

including processes in individual sites and stands, species 

populations, landscapes, and regions. The Forest Service 

must be responsible for obtaining downscaled climate scenarios and formatting and maintaining data sets. The Forest 

Service also must be capable of providing the quantification 

and future projections needed for various assessments of 

climate-change-related questions.

Other actions the Forest Service should take to enhance 

common facilities and assets, before or during development 

of a modeling center, include the following:

•	 Coordinate Data. The collection, consolidation, and

formatting of data for analysis and modeling must 

be significantly enhanced, as they are the basis for 

developing comprehensive, mechanistic understandings of climate change effects.

•	 Share Data. The Forest Inventory and Analysis program has the most complete and comprehensive 

monitoring database in the world. Moreover, many 

types of important global-change research data 

could be collected by Forest Inventory and Analysis 

at minimal cost to improve climate change research 

efforts.

•	 Use Experimental Forests and Ranges and Research

Natural Areas. These cover most ecosystems in the 

United States and hence are very appropriate in 

future global change research. Experiments that 

define ecosystem responses to climate change along 

The Forest Service must be capable of 

modeling air, water, forests, woodlands, 

and grasslands, including processes in 

individual sites and stands, species

populations, landscapes, and regions.

4. Shared Research Needs: Infrastructure,

Scientific Collaboration, and Science Delivery
16 Forest Service Research and Development

temperature and precipitation gradients can be conducted entirely on experimental forests and ranges 

and research natural areas. Moreover, most of the 

experimental forests and ranges and some of the 

research natural areas have long-term, spatial data 

that could be provided to global change scientists at 

minimal cost.

•	 Provide a competitive grants program. A competitive

grants program, either intra-agency or interagency, 

open to all Federal and non-Federal scientists, is an 

effective means to maintaining a cohesive and successful national research strategy.

Scientific Collaboration

Climate change science is complex and requires the interactive research by scientists from many different disciplines, 

only a few of which are represented at any one research 

station or laboratory. While there is already considerable 

collaboration and communication between scientists in 

the Forest Service research and management communities, 

much more can be done to facilitate and improve collaborative studies across station boundaries, including: 

•	 Improving Interactions. An informal virtual communication structure (video conferencing, Web 

communication of preliminary results) would help 

Forest Service and other ecosystem scientists interact 

and share knowledge and data with climatologists, 

ecologists, hydrologists, modelers, and other specialists, and managers who are attempting to develop 

and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies 

on the ground. As funding and resources become 

available, a formal structure for communication 

could evolve that would facilitate communication 

and learning by all involved. In addition, the Forest 

Service needs to build executive-level efforts to link 

with climate change activities in other management 

agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

•	 Improving Incentives. Forest Service scientists often

perceive significant disincentives for cross-station 

activities, especially those that include participation 

in informal teams. Disincentives that are often cited 

include a panel process that stresses the preeminence of first-authored, peer-reviewed publications; 

a spatially diffuse organization that stresses service 

to local clients; and a tendency to award funds using station-specific trickle-down approaches. Each 

of these issues must be evaluated and significantly 

improved if the cross-station collaboration critical to 

progress on global change research issues is to take 

place.

•	 Improving Inter-Deputy Cooperation. The Forest

Service is beginning to initiate, coordinate, facilitate, 

and review activities among and within the deputy 

areas to enhance the development and application 

of research to the NFS and State and Private Forestry 

Deputy areas. This Forest Service-wide effort, under 

the direction of a new Forest Service Climate Council, will also provide much-needed improvement to 

integrate the Forest Service Global Change Research 

Program and other Forest Service research programs, 

such as Forest Inventory and Analysis and the National Fire Plan.

Figure 3. Infrastructure needs to study climate 

change impacts: FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) 

experiment conducted at Forest Service Northern 

Research Station facilities in Rhinelander, WI. CO2

is pumped out of pipes, controlled by sensitive

anemometers, in order to assure a high CO2

concentration at all times inside each ring. The 

photo shows several replicates of experimental 

(CO2, ozone) fumigations, and the control rings

(no fumigations). FACE experiments require $1 to 

2 million in CO2 supplies and maintenance, yearly.

Photo by David Karnosky, Michigan Technological 

University.
Global Change Research Strategy, 2009–2019 17

Science Delivery

A primary force behind Forest Service research is the drive 

to produce results that make a difference in the condition 

of the Nation’s forests, woodlands, and grasslands. The 

process of understanding the users and their information 

needs, targeting scientific studies to meet those needs, 

developing research products that make sense to users, and 

seeking user feedback to refine those products constitute 

a cycle of activities that ensure effective science delivery.

Research and Development must enhance this cycle of 

activities. Scientists must become involved in a continuing 

two-way dialog with users to identify potential future issues 

that managers may encounter. At the same time, Research 

and Development must develop different strategies for 

different stakeholders, striving to deliver science to practitioners, private landowners, Federal and State resource 

managers, policymakers, and the public in general.

Science delivery is a challenging interface issue in the Forest 

Service, even where science delivery has a long tradition of 

occurring with success, such as in fire science and management. While research-management partnerships are often 

discussed, they must be institutionalized to ensure successful infusion of climate change science in management and 

planning. In addition, special effort is needed to transcend 

traditional or perceived barriers between research and 

management and between different disciplinary and administrative structures within the Forest Service. Activities to 

enhance science delivery within the Forest Service include 

the following:

•	 Make major changes in the scientist review process for meaningful participation by Forest Service 

research scientists in the science-delivery process.

Currently, little advancement credit is given for nonresearch activities.

•	 Include a strategic plan to deliver science that describes the products 

desired, product life cycle, and 

chain of responsibility for 

those products for research 

projects at the program or 

team level.

•	 Ensure that large research

teams have science-delivery 

personnel who are closely 

involved with research, 

familiar with the team’s user 

community, and able to judge 

and implement the best mechanism for delivery.

•	 Facilitate collaboration over time with regularly

scheduled meetings and designated personnel in 

both science and management who are responsible 

for climate change issues.

•	 Ensure that trained science communicators at the

station and national level coordinate with individual 

scientists in the delivery of scientific knowledge to 

the public and policymakers.

A second important facet of science delivery will be the 

enhancement of relationships with organizations outside 

the Forest Service. The Forest Service should partner with 

other U.S. Department of Agriculture agencies, such as the 

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, as well as with nongovernmental organizations, and, 

in particular, with private consultant groups, that are used 

often by private landowners seeking guidance on forest 

and grassland management. For example, modeling tools 

such as iTree and COLE were developed with partnerships 

between Forest Service, the private sector, and several nongovernment organizations.

Research efforts by other Federal science agencies are 

also critical to Forest Service science delivery efforts. The 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for 

example, is developing regional climate scenarios in its Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. The 

Forest Service vegetation modeling efforts have a vital need 

for these scenarios. Another example is that the Forest 

Service hydrology projections depend on the stream gauge 

network that the U.S. Geological Survey operates. Forest 

Service research also will benefit by partnering with various 

scientific societies, such as the American Geophysical Union 

and the Ecological Society of America, that can be viewed 

as the honest brokers of scientific knowledge. These partClimate change 

science is complex and 

requires the interactive

research by scientists from many 

different disciplines, only a few 

of which are represented at 

any one research station or 

laboratory.
18 Forest Service Research and Development

The potential impacts on forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems, 

and the ways these systems can provide mitigation options, are of the 

utmost importance.

Climate change is occurring and the Forest Service Research 

and Development branch is well poised to address this issue 

on various fronts, as well as to partner with other interested 

organizations to expand our knowledge base and capacity.

The potential impacts on forest, woodland, and grassland 

ecosystems, and the ways these systems can provide mitigation options, are of the utmost importance.

The Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy 

Overview provides a synthesis and summary of the larger 

research strategy. This summary and synthesis is intended 

to lay out our current and planned future research program 

on climate change with land manager and decisionmaker 

nerships can help to coordinate the synthesis, provide peer 

review, and develop various products beyond the typical 

peer-reviewed journal article. The results of these interactions should be a series of developments aimed specifically 

at effective and efficient science delivery to stakeholders, 

including:

•	 Regional Centers of Excellence. Locate several 

teams of geographic information system/modeling/

climate change specialists around the country to 

provide managers with the regional resources and 

information they need to successfully complete planning and management projects.

•	 User-Friendly Models. Provide computer models, 

both qualitative and quantitative, as a set to simulate, synthesize, and summarize climate change effects into desirable formats that are easy to use, easy 

to parameterize, and easy to initialize.

•	 Training Courses. Develop a set of training courses 

to teach managers (1) how to integrate climate 

change into common analyses, and (2) how to run 

the models.

•	 Certification Programs. Develop a set of requirements to certify managers to deal with climate 

change issues. This would include training courses, 

modeling exercises, and practica.

•	 Public Outreach. Use existing networks to educate, 

inform, and elicit public preferences with respect to 

all aspects of adaptation to and mitigation of climate 

change. The Forest Service has extensive involvement 

with the public and a strong connection to local 

communities concerning management of all national 

forests.

•	 Extension Scientists. NFS and State and Private 

Forestry Deputy Areas should hire scientists and 

technicians specifically to direct the science delivery 

into manager’s hands so that its use will be valid and 

credible. In addition, the Forest Service should work 

with the USDA Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, which includes approximately 350 land and forest extension agents who 

can provide global change science information to 

their clients.

5. Concluding Thoughts

needs at the forefront. It was synthesized from a much 

more detailed document, “US Forest Service Global Change 

Research Plan” available on the Forest Service global 

change web page in 2009. The Strategy is closely coordinated with other USDA global change strategy documents, 

including the “Global Climate Change Growth Platform, 

Forest Service, Research and Development Mission Area,” 

the “Forest Service Strategic Framework for Climate 

Change,” and the “USDA Strategic Plan for Climate 

Change Research, Education, and Extension,” all currently 

under development for release in 2008.
For more information on this document, please 

contact:

R. A. Birdsey, rbirdsey@fs.fed.us

J. Hayes, jenniferhayes@fs.fed.us

L. A. Joyce, ljoyce@fs.fed.us

A. M. Solomon, allensolomon@fs.fed.us
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