### Before the EAS 

### & Domestic Analysis Division, X-53**Offic~** 

### ofAviation Analysis, Room 6401 I)epartment ofTransportation 

### f: 

### ]5

In the Matter Qf: · . ;- i 

### ESSENTIAL AIR SERVICE Ail' RAMPART, ALASKA

I i i 

### 400 7th Street, S.W.

Washington, D.C. 20590

).


### Docket OST 2008-0201·/l



## · Proposal to ProvidejEssential Air Service at Rampart, Alaska

. ' 

## i Warbelow's herby submits its proposal to continue subsidized service to Rampart, Alaska. This proposal provides 

### an option and subsidyrequest for two dayperweek service as well as three dayper week**servic~.** In preparing this proposal, it was discovered that while the previous RFP prescribed two day!per week service, the subsidy distribution calculation and request was for three day perweek service. The actual service provided was three days per week, which is consistent with the subsidy distribution amount paid. · · Appendix A is the optionfor two day per week service. This would be a reduction to the current three day perweek schedule, therefore we have adjusted revenue projections downward.
' Appendix B is the optionl'or three day per week service, which is consistent with the current EAS subsidy basis.**Curr~nt** EAS subsidies for Rampart are calculated on figures provided by Art Warbelow inthdprevious proposal period--- three day per week service in a single engine aircraft. Appendix .B provides the exact same schedule the communityhas enjoyed for the past contract period, albeit in a twin engine aircraft. ' I Regardless oftwo.or**thre~** day per week service, the proposed service will be performed in a twin engine aircraft with**nin~** insured passenger seats. The balance ofthe capacity is reserved for mail and freight. 

### j
Revenue projections are l),ased on data from 2010 and 2011. Our cost data is based on the DOT quarterly F2 numbers from :2010 and 2011. Wehave used historical costs adjusted for known or expected costchanges

.. The proposed service is direct to Rampart from Fairbanks, andreturn.

1

### ' 

# . Rates

I

.. "'**~** > '

... .. ... : t "':"

.... _. • 

### Order 2011-06-14 set ne\1\} mail rates that we expect.will be effective at the start ofthe proposed subsidy period, and thetefore we have used those rates to calculate mail revenue.

, ,RTM $13.0147 Rampart Terminal/Ton Enplaned $716.16 Fairbanks-Rampa* 82 miles i i 

### Therefore the P-L35 rate

### ~m Rampart will

### b~ $0.89 perpound.

. 

### . . .. ' 

### Currentpassenger.fares aJjld cargo rates are used in these calculations. These reflect no change overthe current subsidy**~eriod.**



## ' 1 

## Schedule· The following schedule h!s been published in the OAG, operated MWF.**De~art** 

### Fairbanks 1310 Arrive Fairbanks 1350 I 

### Depart Fairbanks 1400 An1ive Fairbanks 1440
i .**~** 

### 52 weeks x 3flights.per we¢k x 1.34 hours per flight= 209.04 hours with 

## aPA31-350
1

## ~ 

## Projected Demand We have no basis for projecting growth in the market, as increasing energy costs have put a substantial damper on

### economi~ activityin rural villages, and evendriven apopulation decline as residents move to Anchorage 4fld Fairbanks. We are assuming that the recent decline in population in Rampart ha$**stabili~ed,** 

### and therefore projectfuture demand equal to current demand. ··


## Projected Expenses
Fuel costs have been on

# ah upward trend over the recent years, and account for a large part ofthe cost perhour increase$. We have conservatively estimated future fuel costs based·on. the last two years data. ·. i 

### See Appendix A 

### & Bfor ,J>rojected expenses with Piper P A31-350 service.



## .. 2.. '' ' 

### .... 

## Aircraft Type
i 

### Although service was chaP.ged to aCessna 206 for the 2010-2012 contract in an effortto reduce costs, maintaining ;consistbnt service with this approach was often not viable and the Chieftain was utilized to fulfill thie service contract. Rampart's·Iocation often makes it difficult to reach using VFR. Since the**C~ssna** 

### 206 can not be legally flown 4

### 'overthe top",, it is often necessary to follow the river drainages nearly to the village ofTanana, and then return back up the Yukon River valley. While tliere is not yet a GPS approach to Rampart, we expect there will be one withintwo years, and in ahy case the ability to fly over the top frequently allows the flight to proceed direct to the Rampart area and then descend through broken conditions that often exist in theYukon Rivervalley, but ndt overthe mountains to. the East.**Thet:efor~~:WarbelQ.w's** 

### of(ers for consideration by DOT and**th~** 

### village, service in aPiper Chieftain. I t ; ' i I 1
1 

## Subsidy Request

Total Operating Cost Profit Element @ 10% ofTOC Total Economic Cost Projected Revenue Subsidy need at 100% Completion, Subsidy request on an annoal**basi~** two Year Total Subsidy 

### i
I 1.



### Sincerely,

Matt Atkinson Warbelow's AirVenturest Inc. 3758 University Avenue South Fairbanks, Alaska 99709 adventure@northemalask;a.com ! 

### 907 388-8571 

### i Two Times PerWeek $96,322.84

$9,632.28 $105,955.13

$29,538.80 $76,416.32 $76,416.32 $152,832.65. 

### ThreeTimes PerWeek

$144,484.27

$14,448.43 $158,932.69

$39,487.71 $119,444.99**$11~,444.99** $238,889.97



### 3' 

# .. 1 WarbeloWi's Air Ventures, Inc.

, ,f:ssef)tia_j Air Se,rviceJo**B~** ·**~rovided**

## At Rampart, Alaska I ,, ''' • ·! ·: i. I Block Hours 1.34 pertrip Aircraft Type: PA 31-350 ·Routing: · Fairbanks > Rampart> Fairbanks 2tripS'/Wk 9 seats Appendix A Two Times Per Week

139.36 annually

·REVENUE CALCULATIONS

....,**Proj~cted.** Based.on·fewer Flights

,Projectfd
.· Passenger Revenue Rampart .' ·

Less Passenger Tax 7.5%

. PassengerTotal Cargo Revenue Rampart· Cargo Total Mail Revenue Rampart Mail Total Total Revenue

EXPENSE CALCULATIONS ·

Allocated Block Hours Direct Expense Pilot & Co-pilot Fuel & Oil Other Maintenance Depreciation/Rental Total Direct Expense .·· .•..Pax :**~-** . Fare , ..· ' 1'691

... ·$101.00 

## i I I**Pound~** 1200Q I

Pounds

8496j i 

## I I 

## I I . i

I Rate $ 0.49

Rate $ 0.89

PA 31-350 Rate per Block Hour 139.36 $ 94.56, $166.01 $ 16.25 $181.63 $100.00
Indirect Expense 139.36 hr@ $132.73 pr hr Total Operating Cost Profit Element of TOC Total Economic Cost 0.10 Subsidy need at 100% Completic;m Two YearTotal Subsidy · .$ $ $
$ $ Total§ 17,304.67

1.207.30 16,097.36
5,880.00 5,880.00 $ 7,561.44 $ 7,561.44 $ 29,538.80

$ $ $ $ $ $
$ 13,177.88 23,135.15

2,264.60 25,311.96 13,936.00 77,825.59
18,497.25 $ 96,322.84 $ 9,632.28 $ 105,955.13 $ 76,416.32 Annually $ 152,832.65i -;; ' ''lr 

# I ! I Warb,low's AirVentures, Inc. AppendlxB

Essential Air Service To Be Three Times Per Week 

### ,,

.**~** 

### .. ··**Provi~ed** At Rampart, Alaska

..**~** .**~, ~**  I 

# I

I Block Hours 1.34!pertrip 3 trips/wk 209.04 annually Aircraft Type: PA $1-350 9 seats Routing: Fairbanks > Rampart> Fair9anks
REVENUE CALCULATIONS 1 

# I 2010·t:ctual :.>, Pas§enger Revenu§ ax Fare Totals

' Rarl)part

. ?57 $101.00 $ 25,9£?7:00, \ ·.·'- Less PassengerTax 7.5% I**~ 1,810.~5**  ' PassengerTotal ' $ 24,146.05 I I Cargo Revenue Pdunds Rate Rampart 1$878 $ 0.49 $ 7,780.22 Cargo Total j $ 7,780.22

,, I Mail Revenue Pdunds Rate**Rampart~~~h1:: ~496**  $ 0.89 $ 7,561.44 Mail.Total 

# I $ 7,561.44 Total Revenue $ 39,487.71 ! 

### I

, EXPENSE CALCULATIONS I I PA 31-350 Rate per Block Hour I Allocated Block Hours I 209.04 Diregt Ex(;!ense 

### I Pilot & Co-pilot 

### I $ 94.56 $ 19,766.82 Fuel,& Oil $166.01 $ 34,702.73 Other I $ 16.25 $ 3,396.90 Maintenance i $181.63 $ 37,967.94 Depreciation/Rental I $100.00 $ 20,904.00 1 Total Direct Expense ! $ 116,738.39 

### I Indirect Ex(;!ense I I 139.36hr@ $13f.73 pr**~r** $ 27,745.88 I ! $ Total Ogerating Cost I 144,484.27 i Profit Element of TOC 

## = 0.10 

## I**~** 14,448.43 Total Economic Cost $ 158,932.69 Subsidy need at 100% Completion $ 119,444.99 Annually Two Year Total Subsidy $ 238,889.97