p. 1



# OAR Box 

# 1852 Prepped byKeeia Richards



## Document

Number: 

# 20 ) ll-A-2 0 Docket Number: 

# A-86-0 3

Printed 11/19/20082:38:54PM

Sheet 20of 101P. 2



### EPA-AA-SDSB-89-0 1 Technica l Repor t Heavy-Dut yVehicl e Emiss i Conversio n Factor s I I 1962-200 0

B y Pau l A . Machiel e October , 198 8

NOTIC E Technica l Report s do no t necessaril yrepresen t fina l EPA decision s or positions
. Theyar e intended t o presen t technica l analysi s o f issue s using dat a whic har e currentl yavailable
. Th e purpos e in th e releas e o f such report s i s t o facilitat e th e exchang e o f technica l information an

d t o infor

mth e publi c o f technica l development s whic hmayfor mth e basi s fo r a fina l EPA decision , positio n or regulator yaction
.

Standard s Developmen t an d Suppor t Branc h Emissio n Contro l Technolog yDivisio n Offic e o f Mobil e Source s Offic e o f Ai r an

d Radiatio n U . S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc yP. 3



### -2

- Introduction M0BILE 4 i s a compute r progra mtha t generate s in-us e emissio n factor s b ycalenda r year , ambien t temperatur e an d drivin g situatio n in unit s o f gram s pe r mil e (g/mi ) fo r al l vehicl e classes , whic har e the n use d t o determin e emission s inventorie s in variou s localities
. Becaus e urba n area s ar e modelle d almos t exclusively , urba n emissio n factor s ar e desire d an d generate d here . Sinc e heavy-dut yengin e testing provide s emission s i n terms o f gram s pe r brak e horsepower-hour (g/BHP-hr) , brak e horsepower-hour pe r mil e (BHP-hr/mi ) conversio n factor s ar e neede d t o conver t th e brake-specifi c emissio n level s int o th e necessarymile-specifi c (g/mi ) units , a s illustrate d below : Emissio n Facto r = Emissio n Tes t Dat a xConversio n Facto r g _g x

### BHP-h r m i BHP-hr m i Thi s technica l repor t outline s th e methodolog yuse d t o determin e thes e conversio n factors , a s wel l a s providing th e conversio n factor s for heavy-dut ygasolin e an d diese l engine s for th e mode l year s 196 2 through200 0 (se e Tabl e 1) . Sinc e thi s repor t i s for the mos t par t a n updat e o f th e previou s conversio n facto r analysi s performe d fo r MOBILE3 , als o show n ar e th e conversio n factor s a s calculate d i n tha t analysis.[1 ] A s can b e seen , ther e i s a distinc t decreas e i n th e diese l flee t averag e conversio n factor s for recen t an d futur e years , whic hi s attributabl e t o th e dieselizatio n o f the lighte r classes . Asimila r effec t can als o b e see n i n th e gasolin e flee t sinc e ther e ar e fewe r an d fewe r gasolin e vehicle s i n th e heavie r classes . Overall , th e heavy-dut yflee t i s probabl yno t getting tha t muc hlighter , bu t th e dieselizatio n o f th e flee t ha s cause d bot hdiese l an d gasolin e flee t averag e conversio n factor s t o decrease . Th e BHP-hr/m i conversio n factor s wer e calculate d fro m brake-specifi c fue l consumptio n (BSFC) , fue l density , an d fue l econom y(al l o f whic hcan b e measured) , becaus e i t i s difficul t t o measur e BHP-hr/m i directly
. Th e equatio n use d was : C F (BHP-hr/mi ) = P (lb/gal ) / (BSF C (lb/BHP-hr ) * F E (mi/gal) ) Th e emissio n conversio n factor s wer e firs t calculate d b y gros s vehicl e weigh t (GVW ) clas s fo r bot hgasolin e an d diese l powere d vehicles , a s bot h3SF C an d fue l econom

yvar ywit hgros s vehicl e weigh t an d fue l type . Diese l an d gasolin e fleet-averag e conversio n factor s wer e the n calculate d using the appropriat e vehicl e mile s travele d (VMT ) weighting o f the class-specifi c conversio n factors . Gasolin e an d diese l fleet-averag e conversio n factor s wer e derive d separatel y becaus e MOBILE 4 treat s themseparately .

### -3

- Tabl e 1 P. 4



### Yea r 196 2 196 3 196 4 196 5 196 6 196 7 196 8 196 9 197 0 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 198 7 198 8 198 9 199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 198 9 200 0 Fleet-Averag e

Conversio n Factor s (BHP-hr/mi ) Gasolin e Diese l
MOBILE 3 1.2 9 1.3 1 1.3 2 1.3 3 1.3 5 1.3 6 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 1.3 4 1.3 1 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 2 0 1 2 0 8 0 5 0 1 9 8 9 5 9 5 9 5 ,9 6 ,9 7 .9 7 .9 7 .9 6 .9 6 .9 6 .9 5 .9 4 .9 4 .9 3 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 MOBILE 4

0 0 0 0 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 5 2 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 5 4 5 4 4 ,4 2 .4 2 .3 1 .2 4 .0 7 .0 6 .0 2 .9 6 .9 4 .9 1 .8 8 0.9 1 0.9 0 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 , 0 , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 0 9 0 8 9 8 9 ,8 9 ,8 9 .8 9 .8 9 .8 9 .8 9 .8 9 .8 9 .8 8 0.9 2 0.8 8 OBILE 3 " 2.7 4 2.7 4 2.7 3 2.7 2 2.7 6 2.8 2 2.8 8 2.9 4 3.0 0 3.0 8 .3.1 5 3.1 9 3.2 3 3.2 7 3.2 3 3.1 9 3.0 7 2.9 5 2.8 4 2.7 2 2.6 0 2.5 6 2.5 1 2.4 7 2.4 3 2.3 8 2.3 8 2.3 7 2.3 6 2.3 5 2.3 4 2.3 3 2.3 3 2.3 2 2.3 1 2.3 1 2.3 1 2.3 1 2.3 1 MOBILE 4

2.8 5 2.8 6 2.8 7 2.8 9 2.9 0 2.9 6 3.0 0 3.0 7 3.1 0 3.1 6 3.2 0 3.1 9 3.2 1 3.1 5 3.1 8 3.2 5 3.1 9 3.0 0 2.7 2 2.7 0 2.3 8 2.2 8 2.4 1 2.2 0 2.2 1 2.1 7 2.1 3 2.1 0 2.0 7 2.0 5 2.0 3 2.0 3 2.0 3 2.0 4 2.0 4 2.0 4 2.0 4 2.0 4 2.0 3P. 5



### -4

- Estimate s o f histori c BSF C an d fue l econom

yfigure s wer e limited t o 198 2 an d earlie r mode l year s du e t o our dependenc e fo r in-us e fue l econom yestimate s o n the U.S . Censu s Bureau' s Truc k In-us e Survey(TIUS) , whic hi s take n ever yfive years . Thus , histori c class-specifi c conversio n factor s fo r th e year s 198 2 an d earlie r ma

yb e calculate d usin g th e equatio n give n above . Futur e (i.e. , post-1982 ) conversio n factors.wil l no t b e affected b

ychange s i n BSFC , a s an ydecreas e i n BSF C wil l b e cancelle d ou t b

ya corresponding increas e i n fue l economy . A s fue l densit ychange s littl e ove r tim e an d can b e assume d constant , the onl yfactor s affectin g futur e heavy-dut yvehicl e conversio n factor s ar e futur e non-engine-relate d fue l econom y improvements
. Futur e class-specifi c conversio n factor s ar e thu s estimate d b

yreducin

g the 198 2 conversio n factor s i n proportio n t o th e projecte d increas e in fue l econom ydu e t o non-engine-relate d factors . Fo r thi s reason , histori c an d futur e conversio n factor s ar e calculate d separately ; th e forme r using the above equation , an d th e latte r using projecte d non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s applied t o th e 198 2 conversio n factors . Thi s repor t begin s wit ha descriptio n o f th e fue l densities , engin e BSFCs , an d vehicl e fue l economie s use d t o calculat e th e histori c class-specifi c conversio n factors . Following thi s discussion , futur e non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s ar e analyzed an d thei r applicatio n t o histori c class-specifi c conversio n factor s described
. Th e VMT-weighting methodolog yuse d t o obtai n th e diese l an d gasolin e fleet-averag e conversio n factor s i s the n presente d an d eac hfacto r use d i n the VMT weighting proces s described
. II . Histori c Class-Specifi c Conversio n Factor s A s i n th e previou s conversio n factor s analysis , histori c class-specifi c conversio n factor s wer e calculate d using thre e basi c parameters : fue l density , brake-specifi c fue l consumption , an

d fue l economy , a s detaile d above . However , fo r th e previou s analysis , histori c dat a wa s limited b yth e 197 7 TIUS , an

d • a s a resul t histori c conversio n factor s ende d a t 1977 . Fo r thi s analysi s th e 198 2 TIU S i s th e sourc e fo r historica l fue l econom yestimates , an

d thus , historica l conversio n factor s en d wit h1982 . Th e method s use d t o determin e th e fue l density , brak e specifi c fue l consumption , an d fue l econom

yar e detaile d i n th e followin g paragraphs . A . Fue l Densit y Th e gasolin e an

d diese l fue l densitie s use d in th e calculatio n o f histori c conversio n factor s wer e 6.0 9 an d 7.1 1 pound s (lbs ) pe r gallon , respectively
. Th e valu e for gasoline , a s see n i n Tabl e 2 , wa s take n fro ma n averag e ove r th e 198 2 t o 198 5 perio d o f bot hsumme r an d winte r fue l densit ydat a presente d i n th e NIPE R gasolin e surveys.[2 ] Th e diese l fue lP. 6

- 5 - 

### Tabl e2

Yea r 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 Averag e Gasolin e

6.10 7 6.09 3 6.08 3 6.08 5 6.0 9 Diese l

7.09 8 7.13 1 7.10 2 7.11 4 7.1 1P. 7



### -6

- densit yals o show

n in Tabl e 2 wa s take n fro ma n averag e ove r the sam e perio d o f dat a presente d in the MVM Afue l surveys . [3 ] Th e value s use d ar e ver ysimilar t o thos e used in the pas t for M0BILE3.C1 ] Th e fue l densityvalue s ar e no t changed for each yea r even thoughthe necessar yinformation exist s t o d o so , sinc e both . M0BILE 4 an d thi s conversio n facto r analysi s ar e mode l yea r specific , whil e the change s in fue l ^densit yar e a calenda r yea r phenomenon . I t ma yb e possibl e t o tak e th e calenda r yea r change s i n fue l densit yint o accoun t wit hmor e extensive programming , bu t th e benefit s o f incorporatin g thes e smal l change s ( a les s than on e percen t increas e in accuracy ) ar e outweighe d b

yth e complexit yo f th e tas k t o perfor msuc h work . B . Brake-Specifi c Fue l Consumptio n Th e class-specifi c gasolin e an d diese l BSFC s for th e 196 2 t o 197 7 perio d wer e take n directl yfro m th e conversio n facto r analysi s don e for M0BILE3.[1 ] Sinc e manufacturer s ar e n o longe r required t o provid e thi s information a s par t o f th e engin e certificatio n process , mor e recen t engin e BSF C dat a wa s no t readil yavailable
. A s a result , th e majo r manufacturer s wer e contacte d b

yphon e in June , 1987 , an d aske d t o provid e information o n th e BSFC s o f thei r curren t (1987 ) models . Th e manufacturer s provide d th e necessaryinformation , bu t man yo f the mals o aske d tha t the individua l engin e dat a no t b e presente d in thi s report . A s a result , i t i s no t show n here . Th e BSF C informatio n wa s the n sale s weighte d t o achieve class-specifi c BSF C value s for 1987 . Thes e value s i n turn wer e use d in conjunctio n wit hth e 197 7 an d previou s value s t o interpolat e th e value s for the 197 8 t o 198 2 period
. BSF C value s for transi t buse s wer e obtaine d b yassuming tha t th e majorit yo f buse s i n th e pas t use d Detroi t Diese l Alliso n (DDA ) 6V-71 Nengines , whic hhave bee n progressivel y replace d wit hth e DD A6V-92T

Aengines
. Som

e o f EPA' s in-hous e tes t dat a ove r th e bu s centra l busines s distric t cycl e reveale d tha t th e 6V-71 Nengin e obtaine d a BSF C o f 0.55 7 lb/BHP-hr , whil e the 6V-92T

Aobtaine d approximatel y0.4 7 lb/BHP-hr ove r the sam e cycle . B

yusing estimate s o f annua l sale s o f thes e tw o engine s provide d b yDDA , the mode l yea r specifi c BSFC s fo r th e clas s coul d b e estimated
. Th e BSF C value s fo r commercia l buse s utilize d th e sam e methodolog

ywit hthe exceptio n tha t th e transien t cycl e wa s chose n t o b e mor e representative fo r thi s clas s o f bus . Thi s resulted i n somewhat.lowe r BSFC s sinc e th e 6V-71 Nha s a BSF C o f approximatel y0.52 9 lb/BHP-h r ove r th e transien t cycle , an d th e 6V-92T

Aa BSF C o f approximatel y0.4 6 lb/BHP-h

r ove r the transien t cycle . Th e BSF C value s fo r th e schoo l buse s wer e calculate d b ysale s weighting th e clas s specifi c truc k dat a base d on th e clas s specifi c sale s o f schoo l buse s fro

mMVM Asale s data.[4 ] Th e BSF C value s fo r al l classe s for th e year s 196 2 throug h198 7 ar e show

n i n Tabl e 3 .P. 8

-7

-
Tabl e 3 Histori c BSF C (lb/BHP-hr )

Yea r Clas32 B Class3- 5 Class 6 Class 7 Class8 AClass8 B Transi t Commer-ci a 1 Schoo l

,4 9 .55 7 .52 9 * ,4 9 .55 7 .52 9 * ,4 9 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 9 .55 7 .52 9 * ,4 9 .55 7 .52 9 * ,4 8 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 8 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 7 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 7 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 6 .55 7 ' .52 9 * .4 6 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 6 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 5 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 5 .55 7 .52 9 * .4 4 .55 3 .52 6 * .4 3 .54 8 .52 2 .45 2 .4 3 .54 4 .51 9 .45 2 .4 3 .54 0 .51 5 .45 0 .4 2 .53 5 .51 2 .44 8 .4 2 .52 5 .50 3 .44 7 .4 2 .51 5 .49 6 . .44 6 .4 1 .50 5 .48 8 .44 5 .4 1 .49 8 .48 2 .44 6 .4 0 .49 2 .47 7 .44 5 .4 0 .48 5 .47 2 .44 5 .3 9 .47 9 .46 7 .44 4

,7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 7 9 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 * .7 0 .7 0 .69 9 8 0 .6 9 .6 9 .7 0 .7 0 .6 9 * .7 0 .7 0 .69 7 8 1 .6 9 .6 9 .6 9 .6 9 .6 9 * * * .69 4 * * * .69 1 * * • * .68 6 * * * .67 8 * * * .67 0 * * * .56 4 * * * .66 0 DIESE L 6 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7 4 7 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 GASOLIN E 62-7 8 .7 0 .5 1

.5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1

.7 0

8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7

* .6 8 .6 8

.6 4 .6 4 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2

N o Sale s 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 4 9 4 9 4 3 4 7 4 7 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 7 .4 7 .4 7 .4 6 .4 6 .4 6 .4 6 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 9 .4 8 .4 8 .4 7 .4 7 .4 6 .4 6 .4 6 .4 5 .4 5 .4 4 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 1 .4 1 .4 1 .4 1

.6 9 .6 9 .6 8 .6 7 .6 6 .6 6 .6 9

.6 8 .5 7 .6 6 .6 5 .6 5 .6 8

.6 6 .6 4 .6 4 .6 3 .6 3P. 9



### -8

- C . Fue l Econom

y Th e mode l yea r specifi c fue l economie s for al l truc k classe s excep t for clas s 2 B wer e obtaine d b ysmoothin

g th e dat a in the analysi s o f the 198 2 TIU S don e b yEnerg

yan d Environmenta l Analysi s Inc . (EEA) . [5 ] Th e 198 2 TIU S di d no t distinguish " Clas s 2 B fro mClas s 2 a s a whole . Onl yClas s 2 B fue l econom

yi s pertinen t t o heavy-dut yvehicl e emissions , a s Clas s 2Avehicle s ar e treate d a s light-dutytruck s b yEP A regulations , an

d i n M0BILE4 . I n orde r t o estimat e Clas s 2 B fue l econom

yi t wa s assumed , a s i n th e M0BILE 3 conversio n facto r analysis , tha t Clas s 2 B fue l econom yi s 1 0 percen t les s than Clas s 2Afue l econom ydu e t o increase d vehicl e size
. Diese l an

d gasolin e fue l economie s wer e determine d separatel y b yassuming tha t th e rati o o f Clas s 2 B diese l BSF C t o gasolin e BSF C als o represent s th e rati o o f thei r fue l economies
. Commercia l an

d schoo l bu s fue l economie s wer e take n fro m th e Federa l Highwa

yAdministratio n (FHA ) HighwayStatistics.[6 ] Thes e ar e flee t value s instea d o f mode l yea r specifi c values , bu t theyrepresen t th e bes t dat a available , an d thes e value s d o no t chang e significantl ywit htime
. A s a result , theyar e though t t o b e fairl yrepresentative o f th e mode l yea r fue l economies
. Transi t bu s value s wer e the n estimate d a s 85. 8 percen t o f th e commercia l bu s value , base d o n 197 8 through198 3 dat a fro

mthe American Publi c Transi t Associatio n (APTA ) fac t book.[7 ] Th e transi t an d commercia l bu s flee t fue l economie s wer e divide d int o gasolin e an d diese l b

yassumin

g tha t th e Clas s 8Atruc k diese l advantag e factor s wer e applicable
. Th e schoo l bu s fue l economie s fro mth e FH

Adat a wer e broke n u p int o gasolin e an

d diese l b

yassumin

g tha t th e diese l buse s obtai n 3 0 percen t bette r fue l econom ythan thei r gasolin e counterparts . Thi s assumptio n wa s base d o n a reviewo f 198 0 through198 2 diese l advantag e factor s fo r Clas s 5 throughClas s 7 trucks , the engine s o f whic hmak e u p th e schoo l bu s market . Al l o f thes e fue l economie s ar e show n i n Tabl e 4 . Th e fue l economie s presente d in EEA' s analysi s o f th e TIU S ar e nationa l fue l economie s (i.e. , th e resul t o f a combinatio n o f rura l an

d urban driving).[5 ] MOBILE4 , however , i s primaril y use d t o mode l urban emissions , an d a s a resul t require s urban fue l econom

yvalues . Th e conversio n facto r analysi s don e for MOBILE 3 looked at thi s issue
. Althoughsom e informatio n suggeste d tha t urban fue l econom yshoul d b e lowe r than rura l fue l economy , othe r informatio n suggeste d tha t du e t o lowe r vehicl e load s in urban areas , th e fue l econom yin a n urban are a ma yb e ver

ysimila r t o tha t i n a rura l area . Becaus e o f this , an d the fac t tha t reliabl e dat a on thi s topi c wa s limited , i t wa s decide d tha t th e nationwid e fue l econom yvalue s availabl e fro mthe TIU S adequatel yrepresente d th e urba n fue l economy . Sinc e no furthe r wor k i n thi s are a ha s bee n done , thi s analysi s fo r MOBILE 4 als o wil l assum e tha t th e TIU S fue l econom yvalue s ar e representative o f urba n driving
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vovOvOvDlOvDvovOvO<OvOvO00Oii-l(NTl<inr-00 O OOOOOOOOOOOOrsj-^r-Oi^Hroint- O OiOiOiCTiOiOiOiOlOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOiOOOOr H r H r H i- H i H r H ruroTrinvor-oooiOrHrMro^rinvor-oooiOrHf M vovovovovovovovor^r^r--r--r —t- ~ r - r —r . r * t o o

o TO OT

nJ OT O 2

### -10

- D . Summar

yo f Histori c Conversio n Factor s I n summary , histori c class-specifi c conversio n factor s wer e base d on : fue l densitie s fro m NIPE R an

d MVM Afue l surveys,[2,3 ] BSFC s fro mth e MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s an d manufacture r information,[1 ] an d fue l economie s fro mth e 198 2 TIU S for truck s an d th e FH

AHighwa

yStatistic s fo r buses.[5,6 ] Thes e gasolin e an d diese l class-specifi c conversio n factor s ar e listed in Table s 5 an d 6 . The class-specifi c conversio n factor s ar e the n use d a s the basi s fo r the predictio n o f futur e class-specifi c conversio n factors , whic hi s describe d below . Ill . Futur e Clas s Specifi c Conversio n Factor s Post-198 2 class-specifi c gasolin e an d diese l conversio n factor s (se e Table s 5 an d 6 ) wer e estimate d using 198 2 class-specifi c conversio n factor s an d projecte d futur e non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovements
. Engine-relate d fue l econom

yimprovement s affec t bot hBSF C an d fue l econom

y (BSF C decrease s a s fue l econom yincreases ) ahd , thus , d o no t affec t th e conversio n factor . Futur e conversio n factor s ar e calculate d b

ydividing th e histori c conversio n facto r b y1. 0 plu s th e non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovemen t (a s a fraction ) tha t i s predicte d t o occur betwee n th e 198 2 bas e yea r an d the yea r i n question
. A . Futur e Non-Engin e Relate d Fue l Econom yDevelopment s Fo r th e MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s severa l fairl y detaile d studie s o f futur e non-engine-relate d fue l econom y improvement s wer e conducte d an d submitte d t o EPA . Mos t o f th e informatio n use d economi c an d cost/benefi t analysi s t o projec t th e penetratio n o f the fuel-econom yimprovin

g device s int o the future . Th e dat a an d estimate s wer e reviewe d an d thos e whic h seeme d reasonabl e wer e used . Non-engin e relate d fue l econom y improvement s accepte d for the analysi s include d th e us e o f weigh t reduction , radia l tires , aerodynami c add-o n devices , drivetrai n lubricants , improved fan drives , overdrive , electroni c transmissio n control , an d spee d contro l devices
. Sinc e tha t time littl e ne winformatio n ha s become availabl e o n whic ht o bas e newestimates
. Some ne winformatio n wa s availabl e concerning the us e o f radia l tire s an d aerodynami c devices , bu t i t wa s o f sufficien t detai l onl yt o showtha t the value s use d i n th e MOBILE 3 analysi s wer e reasonable.[8,9]
. Som e informatio n o n th e penetratio n o f fue l econom yimprovemen t device s fro ma surveyperforme d b ythe Universit yo f Michigan Transportatio n Researc hInstitut e (UMTRI ) wa s provide d b ythe Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Associatio n (MVMA ) an d th e Engin e Manufacturer s Associatio n (EMA ) i n a meeting hel d Marc h7 , 1988.[10 ] Unfortunately , i t wa s no t i n a for

mwhic henable d i t t o b e incorporate d int o thi sP.1 2

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-P.1 4



### -13

- analysis
. UMTR I subsequentl yprovide d the informatio n t o EPA i n a mor e usabl e form . [11 ] However , du e t o th e shor t time fram e require d for it s incorporation , the smal l effec t expecte d t o resul t fro

mit s incorporation , an d a numbe r o f question s a s t o howi t shoul d b e used , i t ha s no t bee n incorporate d int o th e newconversio n facto r analysi s a t thi s time
. On e suc hquestio n involve s ho wwel l a vehicl e owner' s perceptio n o f hi s vehicle' s design reflect s realitywhe n i t i s ofte n base d o n sale s promotions
. Fo r example , eve n thoug ha vehicl e i s markete d a s being aerodynamic , howaerodynami c i t reall yi s whe n compare d t o othe r vehicle s i s no t addressed . A numbe r o f truc k owner s responde d affirmativel yt o the questio n o f whethe r thei r vehicl e had a n aerodynami c cabdesign eve n thoug hthei r truck s wer e fro mth e pre-198 0 period , a perio d know n for non-aerodynami c designs
. Asecon d questio n involve s howwel l th e effectivenes s o f a vehicl e owner' s fue l saving devic e compare s wit hthe effectivenes s attribute d t o tha t devic e b

yindependen t researc hwhe n th e design s can b e significantl ydifferent
. Fo r som e categorie s suc ha s radia l tires , th e differenc e i s probabl yrathe r small , bu t fo r aerodynami c devices , or fue l efficien t lubricants , th e differenc e ca n b e extremel ylarge . Athird questio n involve s howgasolin e vehicle s shoul d b e treate d sinc e onl ydiese l vehicle s wer e surveyed . Diese l vehicle s ten d t o accumulat e mor e mile s i n a give n year , an d ar e drive n mor e i n line-hau l applications
. A s a result , th e us e o f fue l saving device s tend s t o b e mor e cos t effective fo r the mtha n fo r gasolin e vehicles
. Afourt hquestio n i s howt o projec t th e penetratio n rate s int o th e futur e wher e theyar e applied
. I n additio n t o othe r problem s associate d wit hextrapolations , th e drop in fue l price s in lat e 198 5 cause d th e fue l econom ydevice s t o b e les s cos t effective an

d therefor e les s likel yt o b e utilized
. A n additiona l difficult ywit hincorporating th e informatio n i s ho w t o trea t fue l savin g device s whic happear t o b e a calenda r yea r phenomena rathe r than a mode l yea r phenomena . M0BILE 4 currentl yha s the capacit yt o trea t onl ymodel-yea r specifi c changes . Th e time require d t o mak e th e necessarychange s t o incorporat e calenda r yea r effect s a s wel l goe s beyon d th e require d deadlin e fo r completio n o f M0BILE4 . A s a resul t o f th e difficultie s wit hincorporating th e UMTR I information , th e penetratio n rate s an d fue l econom

y improvement s assume d i n th e MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s wer e accepte d for us e i n MOBILE4 . Th e penetratio n rate s determine d in the NIPE R surveyar e typicall yslightl yhighe r than th e M0BILE 3 projections , however , thi s seems logica l sinc e onl ydiese l vehicle s wer e surveyed , an d the M0BILE 3 penetratio n rate s ar e fo r bot hgasolin e an d diese l vehicles
. A s a resul t the difference s betwee n the UMTR I dat a an d th e informatio n use d i n th e M0BILE 3 analysi s ma yb e smalle r than woul d appear . Th e UMTR I informatio n limited t o thos e device s incorporate d i n th e M0BILE 3 analysi s i s summarize d i n Appendi xA .P.1 5



### -14

- Du e t o the drasti c chang e in th e fue l pric e structur e whic hoccurre d lat e i n 1985 , man yo f th e fue l econom y improvement s ar e n o longe r economicall yattractive for man yo f the vehicl e applications
. A s a result , th e projection s o f devic e penetratio n int o the truc k marke t beyon d 198 6 ar e n o longe r valid
. Fo r thi s reason , the MOBILE 3 projection s wer e onl yused for th e 198 2 t o 198 6 time frame , an d n o non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s wer e assume d beyon d 1986 . A s thi s approachwa s presente d a t th e MOBILE 4 workshop hel d i n Ann Arbo r o n Novembe r 10 , 1987 , an d no dat a othe r than th e UMTR I surveywa s forthcomin g t o sho

wotherwise , no non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s ar e projecte d beyon d 1986 . Th e estimate s o f fue l econom yimprovement s her e a s fo r M0BILE 3 wer e derive d according t o GV Wclas s (Classe s Ilb-IV o r light heavy-dut yvehicle s (LHDVs) , Classe s Vl-VIII a or mediu m heavy-dut yvehicle s (MHDVs) , an d Clas s VHI bor heav y heavy-dut yvehicle s (HHDVs) ) a s specifi c improvement s wil l affec t eac hclas s differently
. Thes e improvement s ar e al l detaile d an

d reference d i n Table s 7 through9 , an d the ne t fue l econom yimprovement s show n i n Tabl e 10 . Althoughth e marke t penetratio n rate s o f th e fue l econom yimprovemen t device s i n Table s 7 through9 wer e assumed t o affec t th e flee t a s a whole , improvemen t device s wer e assume d t o b e applie d firs t i n th e long-rang e application s o f eac hclas s wher e theywoul d b e mos t economicall yattractive , the n the short-range , an d the n th e loca l applications
. A s a resul t o f difference s i n th e distributio n o f gasolin e an d diese l vehicle s i n long-range , short-range , an

d loca l usag e categories , th e overal l fue l econom yimprovement s a s see n i n Tabl e 1 0 ar e differen t fo r gasolin e vehicle s than for diese l vehicles
. Explanation s o f the selectio n o f th e penetratio n rate s an d associate d fue l econom yimprovement s associate d wit heac hdevic e exis t i n th e MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s an d ar e no t repeate d here.tl ] B . Applicatio n o f Non-Engine-Relate d Fue l Econom y Improvement s Sinc e a fue l econom ysavin

g devic e wil l typicall yb e applie d wher e i t i s mos t cos t effective , th e above non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s wer e applie d firs t in th e high-mileage , long-rang e applications , secon d i n th e short-rang e applications , an d las t o f al l i n th e lowes t mileage , loca l applications
. Th e breakdow n o f truck s int o thes e usag e categorie s a s see n i n Tabl e l l i s base d o n dat a i n the 198 2 TIUS.[5 ] Sinc e the estimate s o f flee t penetratio n wer e no t fue l specific , the onl ydifference s betwee n th e ne t fue l econom

yimprovement s for gasolin e an d diese l vehicle s arise s fro

mth e differen t weighting o f th e individua l fue l econom yimprovement s du e t o differen t long-range , short-range , an d loca l distribution s o f gasolin e an d diese l vehicles
.

### -15

- P.1 6



### Tabl e 7
n a 

### - g TTB-IV—Ligh t Heavy-Dut yVehicle s Future~^n^Enqin e Relate d Fue l Econom yImprovements , Weigh t Reductio n % Penetratio n Sourc e % F E Imprv . 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 % panaj-r^Hn n (cumulative )
M0BILE3[1 ] 6. 6 M0BILE 4 6. 6 5 0 5 0 5 0

5 0 5 0

5 0 5 0

5 0 5 0

5 0 200 0

5 0 5 0 Radial s & Advance d Radial s Sourc e % F E Imprv . 198 2 MOBILE3[l ] 1. 4 (radial ) 5 5 MOBILE 4 1. 4 5 5 MOBILE3U ] 0. 0 (adv . rad ) 0 MOBILE 4 0. 0 0 % Penetratio n (cumulative ) 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 200 0 5 8 5 8 0 0 6 1

6 1 0 0 ' 6 4

6 4 0 0 6 7

6 7 0 0 9 0

6 7 0

. 0 

### Aerodynamic s (add-on ) Non e Aerodynamic s (body ) Sourc e % F E Imprv . 198 2 MOBILE3[l ] 0 0 MOBILE 4 0 0 % Penetratio n (cumulative ) 198 3 0 0 198 4

0 0 198 5

0 0 198 6

0 0 200 0

0 0
Drivetrai n Lubricant s Sourc e % F E Imprv , MOBILE3[l ] 1. 5 MOBILE 4 1. 5 198 2 0 0 %ppnetratio n (cumulative ) 198 3 7 7 198 4

1 3 1 3 198 5

2 0 2 0 198 6

2 7 2 7 200 0

10 0 2 7
Accessorie s (None )P.1 7



### -16

- Tabl e 7 (cont'd ) Clas s IIB-IV—Ligh t Heavy-Dut yVehicle s (cont'd ) Futur e Non-Engin e Relate d Fue l Econom yImprovement s Automati c Overdrive Sourc e % F E Imprv . TUT " U31 198 4 Ili i 198 6 % Penetratio n (cumulative ) MOBILE3[l ] 5. 0 MOBILE 4 5 . 0 0 0 3

3 6

6 1 0 1 0 1 3

1 3 200 0

4 8 1 3
Manua l Overdriv e Sourc e % F E Imprv . MOBILE3[l ] 5. 0 MOBILE 4 5 . 0 198 2 1 0 1 0 % PonPtratio n (cumulative ) 198 3 1 2 1 2 198 4

1 4 1 4 198 5

1 6 1 6 198 6

1 8 1 8 200 0

4 0 1 8 Electroni c Transmissio n Contro l
Sourc e % F E Imprv . 198 2 MOBILE3[l ] 0. 0 0 MOBILE 4 0 % Penetratio n (cumulative ) 198 3 0 0 198 4

0 0 198 5

0 0 198 6

0 0 200 0

0 0P.1 8



### -17

- Tabl e 8 Clas s VT-VTTTa—Mediu mHeaw-Dut yVehicle s Futur~e~N5n~-Enqin

e Relate d Fue l Econom yImprovement s Weigh t Reductio n (none ) Radial s Sourc e % F E Imprv . MOBILE3[l ] 3. 2 MOBILE 4 3. 2 Advance d Radial s Penetratio n (cumulative ) 198 2 1 4 1 4 198 3

1 4 1 4 198 4

1 4 1 4 198 5

1 4 1 4 198 6

1 4 1 4 % Penetratio n (cumulative ) 200 0 0 1 4

source * FE imprv . 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 200 0

- i 9- 3 4 3 0 MOBILE3[l ] 6. 0 . 0 1 2 

### MOBILE 4 6. 0 0 1 2 3 Aerodynamic s (body ) - non e Aerodynami c Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Drivetrai n Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Fa n Drive s Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Spee d Cont i Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 : s l

% 

### [add-on ) F E Imprv . 2. 5 2. 5 Lubricant s % F E Imprv .

%



### :o l % 

### 1. 5 1. 5

F E Imprv . 5. 3 5. 3

F E Imprv . 6. 0 6. 0 198 2

5 5

198 2 0 0

198 2 5 0 5 0

198 2 0 0 % : 

### 198 3 5 5

% 

### 198 3 7 7

% 

### 198 3 6 0 6 0

% 

### 198 3 1 1 Penetratio n 198 4 6 6 Penetratio n 198 4 1 3 1 3 Penetratio n 198 4 7 0 7 0 Penetratio n 198 4 2 2 (cumulative ) 198 5 6 6 (cum u 198 5 2 0 2 0 (cum u 198 5 8 0 8 0 (cum u 198 5 3 3 198 6

7 7 lative ) 198 6 2 7 2 7 lative ) 198 6 9 0 9 0 ilative ) 198 6 4 4 200 0 2 0 7

200 0 10 0 2 7

200 0 10 0 9 0

200 0 1 5 4P.1 9



### Clas s -18

-

Tabl e 9 VIlib—HeavyHeavy-Dut yVehicle : Futur e Non-Engin e Relate d Fue l Econom y Weiqh t Reductio n (none ) Radial s Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Advance d R

a Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 % F E Imprv .

6. 8 6. 8 .dial s % F E Imprv . 10. 2 10. 2 198 2

6 5 6 5

198 2 1. 7 1. 7 Aerodynamic s (body ) - non e Aerodynami c Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Drivetrai n Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 Fa n Drive s Sourc e MOBILE3U ] MOBILE 4 Spee d Cont i Sourc e MOBILE3[l ] MOBILE 4 : s (add-on )

% F E Imprv . 2. 5 2. 5 Lubricant s % F E Imprv . 1. 5 1. 5

% F E Imprv . 6. 8 6. 8 :o l % F E Imprv . 5. 0 5. 0 198 2

2 2 2 2

198 2 0 0

198 2 9 8 9 8

198 2 8 8 % Penetratio n 198 3 6 2 6 2
% 1 198 3 5 5

% : 

### 198 3 2 4 2 4

% 

### 198 3 7 7

% 

### 198 3 9 8 9 8

% 

### 198 3 1 0 1 0 198 4 5 8 5 8 Penetration 198 4 1 0 1 0

Penetratio n 198 4 2 7 2 7 Penetratio n 198 4 1 3 1 3 Penetratio n 198 4 9 9 9 9 Penetratio n 198 4 1 1 1 1 Impr o

(cum u 198 5 5 4 5 4 (cum u 198 5 1 5 1 5

(cum u 198 5 2 9 2 9 vement s

lative ) 198 6 5 0 5 0 lative ) 198 6 2 0 2 0

lative ) 198 6 3 2 3 2 (cumulative ) 198 5 2 0 2 0 (cum u 198 5 9 9 9 9 198 6

2 7 2 7 Llative ) 198 6 10 0 10 0 (cumulative ) 198 5 1 3 1 3 198 6

1 4 1 4 200 0

0 5 0

200 0 7 0 2 0

200 0 5 8 3 2

200 0 10 0 2 7

200 0 10 0 10 0

200 0 5 0 1 4-19

- TABL E1 0 ANNUA LFUE LECONOM

YIMPROVEMENTS (RELATIV ET O 1982 ) YEA R DIESE L 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 200 0 CLAS S 2 E
1.0009 2 1.0018 2 1.0027 9 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 1.0045 6 GASOLIN E 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 200 0 1.0008 7 1.0017 1 1.0036 7 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1.0068 4 1 CLAS S 3t-|t-|rHrHrH

1rHt-iri 1 1I-HMt-iMr-il-lrH
1.0008 6 1.001 7 1.0033 9 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 1.0064 3 CLAS S 4r-lt-lM

1r-lrHt-lrH 1i-iri 1Hl-ir-i 1 1h-i
1.0008 7 1.0017 2 1.0030 8 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 1.0054 7 CLAS S 5Mf-i

1I-HI-Hr-it-l 1 1rHrHh-ir-it-il-irHr-i 1
1.0011 2 1.0031 9 1.0061 4 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 1.0098 6 CLAS S 6

1.0082 3 1.0183 8 1.0266 9 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8 1.0333 8
1.0083 8 1.0159 8 1.0235 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 1.0307 3 CLAS S 7

1.007 7 1.0154 1 1.0231 8 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1 1.0309 1
1.0068 1 1.0129 4 1.0204 1 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 1.0277 4 CLAS S 8 A

1.0097 5 1.0178 8 1.0261 5 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8 1.0342 8
1.0069 5 1.01 4 1.0211 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 1.0287 5 CLAS S 8 B

1.0008 5 1.0035 4 1.0046 2 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5 1.0073 5
1 1M 1iHMt-i 1rH 1t-ii-il-ir-it-it-irHrH TRANSI T

1r-i 1t-it-ir-i 1t-irir-it-it-ir-i 1 1 1 1rHt-il-ir-it-il-lr-il-H 1rHl-i 1Mt-ir-i 1l-it-i 1 COMMERCI A

1MMr-ir-lMr-l 1 1r-iM 1t-lI-HrHr-l 1rH
1I-Hr-it-irHl-i 1t-i 1 .rHI-HMl-ir-iMI-H 1r-i SCHOO Lt->

1 1M 1 1t-iI-HrHrHt-it-irHr-il-it-it-lMl-il-il-irHril-i 1rit-it-irHl-iril-i 1r-il-ir-iP.2 1



### •20

-

Vehicl e Clas s Clas s 2

Clas s 3

Clas s 4

Clas s 5

Clas s 6

Clas s 7

Clas s 8 A

Clas s 8 B 

### Rang e

Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Loca l Shor t Lon g Tabl e 1 1 198 2 TIU S Vehicl e Stoc k and VM T B yClass , Range , and Fue l Typ e

Diese l Stoc k Av g VM T 1957 3 338 3 212 6 781 7 178 1 37 9 300 0 56 9 0 391 4 145 8 30 7 4127 0 2052 7 382 6 11311 9 4188 9 1149 3 14249 3 5853 4 4417 9 24751 8 23195 7 25328 2 1307 7

3038 7 2985 3 1548 2 3629 8 5341 4 1655 8 2866 2 NA 1675 2 3448 7 3058 2 1748 9 2800 9 4697 0 1964 3 3470 5 5242 0 1916 3 4100 6 7913 3 3080 2 5662 1 8775 0 Gaso ^



### Stoc k 880207 0 136267 8 41275 3 4592 2 739 3 54 3 14707 8 2523 9 553 6 25612 8 2832 5 335 6 71870 6 9581 9 1405 2 10312 0 1855 3 259 9 6733 9 750 4 170 0 666 2 161 0 52 1 Lin e Av g VM T 1083 4 1380 5 1317 8 559 6 1343 9 647 2 709 0 1366 9 810 1 642 0 1325 6 1280 3 821 4 1515 1 1556 5 1074 6 1876 3 2312 9 859 9 1693 4 1109 3 1295 3 2538 0 9589 2P.2 2



### -21

- I f the percen t o f the flee t affected wa s les s than the percen t o f vehicle s used for long-rang e transport , the n onl y long-rang e vehicle s wer e credite d wit hfue l econom y improvements
. Th e percen t o f flee t affected had t o b e greate r than bot hthe combine d long-rang e an d short-rang e vehicl e us e fraction s i n orde r t o credi t an yfue l econom

yimprovemen t t o th e urban (local ) vehicles
. Th e overal l effec t - o f a give n technolog

yi s dependen t o n the degre e tha t the technolog yi s applied throughou t the clas s an d o n the breakdow

n o f the clas s betwee n th e variou s us e categories
. Th e compute r progra muse d t o perfor

mthes e calculation s i s show n in Appendi xB . Afte r al l o f the futur e non-engine-relate d fue l econom y improvement s ar e calculate d fo r eac hclas s an d time period , theyar e applied t o th e mos t recen t histori c class-specifi c (1982 ) conversio n facto r t o yiel d futur e class-specifi c conversio n factors . Some o f th e fue l econom yimprovement s discusse d had alread ypenetrate d a portio n o f th e flee t b y 1982 , an

d thei r increasin

g benefit s wer e realize d late r a s a large r percen t o f the flee t incorporate d thos e improvements
. Thi s 198 2 baselin e penetratio n wa s subtracte d fro mth e penetratio n o f eac hfutur e yea r t o obtai n th e ne t percen t improvemen t fro

m198 2 t o th e yea r i n guestion
. Thes e futur e class-specifi c conversio n factor s ar e show n i n Table s 5 an

d 6 . IV . Fleet-Averag e Conversio n Factor s Fleet-averag e conversio n factor s wer e calculate d b yVMT weighting the class-specifi c conversio n factors . Th e VMT weighting facto r fo r eac hclas s wa s determine d b ynormalizing th e produc t of : 1 ) the HD V sale s fraction , 2 ) th e diese l or gasolin e sale s fraction , 3 ) the annua l VMT pe r vehicle , an d 4 ) the urban trave l fraction
. Th e resulting diese l an d gasolin e VMT-weighting factor s ar e listed i n Table s 1 2 an d 13 . Th e individua l factor s tha t mak e u p th e VMT weighting facto r ar e discusse d i n the paragraph s below . A . Sale s Fraction s Historica l class-specifi c truc k sale s figure s fo r th e 196 2 t o 197 1 timeframe wer e calculate d fro mth e sale s fraction s use d i n the MOBILE 3 conversio n facor s analysi s an d an estimat e o f th e entir e fleetwid e truc k sale s fro mthe MVM

Afac t book.[12 ] Fo r th e 197 2 t o 198 6 timeframe , the MVM Afac t sheet s wer e relied o n for th e class-specifi c sale s . o f al l truck s sol d domesticall yin th e U.S. , wit hth e exceptio n o f Clas s 2B , Clas s 8A , an d Clas s 8B.[4 ] Fo r Classe s 8Aan d 8B , th e MVM

Afac t sheet s wer e relied o n for th e tota l Clas s 8 sales , bu t thi s wa s broke n up int o Clas s 8Aan d 8 B b yusing th e sale s informatio n i n the EE Aconversio n factor s report , an d th e Departmen t o f Energy' s 13thPeriodica l Report[13,14 ] (for th e year s wher e dat a wa s available ) t o determin e th e rati o o f Clas s 8 B t o Clas s 8 Sales . Clas s 2 B sale s wer e take n fro mth e 13t hPeriodica l-22 -
TABL E 1 2 DIESE L VM

T WEIGHTIN G FACTOR S

YEA R CLAS S 2 B 6 2 0 6 3 0.00029 8 6 4 0.00028 1 6 5 0.00053 4 6 6 0.00095 6 6 7 0.00058 3 6 8 0.00030 2 6 9 0 7 0 0 7 1 0 7 2 0 7 3 0 74 0 7 5 0 7 6 0 7 7 0.00114 2 7 8 0 7 9 0.03850 1 8 0 0.11807 6 8 1 0.16607 9 8 2 0.27975 4 8 3 0.34003 6 8 4 0.27890 9 8 5 0.35916 2 8 6 0.34584 5 8 7 0.36015 7 8 8 0.37360 0 8 9 0.38672 1 9 0 0.39982 6 9 1 0.40627 2 9 2 0.41353 8 9 3 0.41188 8 9 4 0.41050 7 9 5 0.40828 3 9 6 0.40819 0 9 7 0.40943 9 9 8 0.41006 9 9 9 0.41128 2 ininr, n 41256 3 CLAS S 3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .00185 7 00195 5 00198 3 00196 0 00186 6 00169 5 00104 8 00049 2 00009 7 00037 6 00108 2 00110 9 00017 8 00088 0 00089 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLAS S 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .00626 5 .00660 3 .00657 2 .00644 8 .00618 7 00577 0 00349 9 00160 0 00033 5 00035 0 00020 9 00019 6 00017 7 00031 6 00000 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLAS S 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 . .02909 6 03057 4 02864 4 02569 3 02323 3 02040 7 01499 5 00737 7 00155 1 00119 6 00068 8 00073 2 00043 3 00052 5 00017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLAS S 6 0.05926 2 0.07458 3 0.07896 0 0.07681 9 0.07910 5 0.08073 5 0.07260 3 0.06454 8 0.05823 9 0.04309 5 0.02689 6 0.02831 6 0.03262 5 0.04155 3 0.05458 0 0.05211 2 0.04588 8 0.04961 1 0.03567 1 0.04390 3 0.02504 9 0.02307 7 0.02513 2 0.02522 6 0.01694 2 0.02614 9 0.02648 1 0.02672 3 0.02681 6 0.02733 4 0.02770 7 0.02812 1 0.02848 2 0.02868 7 0.02856 3 0.02884 4 0.02918 9 0.02954 4 0.03008 7 CLAS S 7 CLAS S 8 A

0.28810 6 0.05691 6 0.25007 4 0.05843 0 0.21535 4 0.05871 9 0.18805 2 0.05925 9 0.16682 8 0.05471 2 0.14859 3 0.05060 8 0.13528 9 0.04892 8 0.12146 3 0.04653 0 0.11051 2 0.04449 4 0.10940 1 0.04492 8 0.09038 5 0.04956 8 0.08718 4 0.05304 3 0.07254 6 0.05336 2 0.10827 9 0.05374 5 0.08527 6 0.06263 9 0.10005 5 0.06702 5 0.11780 2 0.06170 0 0.11601 6 0.05391 3 0.17496 0 0.04175 1 0.14302 5 0.03911 2 0.18502 8 0.02911 8 0.14981 1 0.06020 2 0.14943 2 0.06387 3 0.15665 1 0.06063 0 0.16695 2 0.08301 3 0.17670 6 0.05102 4 0.17966 9 0.04977 5 0.18246 8 0.04915 1 0.18481 7 0.04809 2 0.18526 1 0.04745 9 0.18494 5 0.04671 9 0.18777 8 0.04679 0 0.18933 1 0.04687 7 0.18893 7 0.04688 8 0.18895 5 0.04700 5 0.18797 6 0.04686 2 0.18713 6 0.04668 4 0.18516 2 0.04652 2 0.18374 9 0.04619 6 CLAS S 8 B TRANSI T 0.43310 5 0.10271 5 0.47060 5 0.08732 9 0.50455 3 0.08610 6 0.53850 8 0.08419 5 0.56429 6 0.08405 1 0.59316 9 0.08114 5 0.64195 6 0.06694 7 0.68081 0 0.06307 1 0.72784 3 0.04661 9 0.71644 2 0.06859 6 0.74954 5 0.06709 7 0.75297 4 0.06259 2 0.73099 1 0.08928 9 0.58123 0 0.17358 3 0.64999 6 0.11914 6 0.72338 3 0.04560 8 0.69712 4 0.06166 4 0.67511 6 0.05213 0 0.51810 7 0.08751 4 0.50314 4 0.08049 6 0.39042 3 0.06428 1 0.32945 5 0.07173 1 0.42200 3 0.04227 4 0.33789 9 0.03712 3 0.30691 2 0.04710 8 0.31067 9 0.04395 1 0.29481 2 0.04351 4 0.28023 7 0.04224 1 0.26657 5 0.04097 8 0.26052 1 0.04027 0 0.25479 3 0.03964 2 0.25293 9 0.03953 8 0.25307 1 0.03860 8 0.25562 3 0.03845 8 0.25615 5 0.03839 6 0.25642 8 0.03760 2 0.25650 9 0.03761 4 0.25715 2 0.03763 9 0.25724 7 0.03768 7 COMMERCI A 0.02267 4 0.01954 4 0.01882 5 0.01852 8 0.01876 0 0.01729 2 0.01442 7 0.01410 5 0.01030 4 0.01561 1 0.01452 4 0.01385 0 0.02039 3 0.03988 4 0.02729 7 0.01062 6 0.01538 1 0.01296 3 0.01868 7 0.01686 5 0.01414 2 0.01528 5 0.00916 0 0.00837 8 0.01020 2 0.00966 5 0.00956 9 0.00924 5 0.00916 0 0.00900 1 0.00863 4 0.00861 1 0.00859 1 0.00855 8 0.00831 9 0.00832 8 0.00833 1 0.00833 6 0.00834 7 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ; 0 ' 0 0 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . SCHOO L

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .00004 5 .00043 8 .00174 7 .00522 9 .00737 1 .01220 1 01039 8 .00921 2 .01492 8 .02302 2 .02166 5 .02257 6 .02321 1 02373 4 02387 9 02402 0 02433 1 02452 8 02456 2 02441 1 02451 6 02446 4 02435 9 02412 0-23 -

YEAR CLAS S 2 B 6 2 0.08470 4 6 3 0.09401 4 6 4 0.10545 7 6 5 0.11646 4 6 6 0.13855 7 6 7 0.13598 9 6 8 0.15482 7 6 9 0.17549 3 7 0 0.19599 1 7 1 0.19651 3 7 2 0.19288 1 7 3 0.22487 4 74 0.23429 7 7 5 0.35701 6 7 6 0.40947 3 7 7 0.64957 8 7 8 0.65175 8 7 9 0.68309 3 8 0 0.79411 2 8 1 0.80536 6 8 2 0.86223 6 8 3 0.89488 2 84 0.86798 0 8 5 0.88000 5 8 6 0.88630 4 8 7 0.88140 6 8 8 0.88454 3 8 9 0.88651 1 9 0 0.88811 7 9 1 0.88842 7 9 2 0.88907 0 9 3 0.89046 8 9 4 0.89193 3 9 5 0.89367 4 9 6 0.89531 2 9 7 0.89659 3 9 8 0.89728 0 9 9 0.89824 1 200 0 0.89884 4 CLAS S 3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 .

0 . .01900 7 .01848 8 01808 0 01748 5 01522 1 01340 9 01304 8 01286 6 01135 7 04359 8 12234 3 10175 0 01950 8 05138 6 10764 0 04681 6 05123 6 02957 9 00921 8 00055 6 0 0 0 02447 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLAS S 4 0.05789 6 0.05628 6 0.05438 5 0.05240 0 0.04625 1 0.04169 9 0.03942 2 0.03771 0 0.03541 8 0.03672 7 0.02141 9 0.01630 0 0.01755 0 0.01673 1 0.00022 0 0.00508 2 0.00903 1 0.00398 9 0.00004 2 0.00003 3 0.00002 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TABL E 1 3

GASOLIN E VM T CLAS S 5 0.29695 0 0.28818 9 0.28225 4 0.27424 5 0.24119 2 0.21304 5 0.20177 1 0.19205 1 0.18003 3 0.13818 6 0.07766 0 0.06701 8 0.04724 3 0.03059 2 0.02051 2 0.00727 1 0.00581 6 0.00514 5 0.00347 9 0.00408 4 0.00275 6 0.00192 8 0.00822 3 0.00626 0 0.00910 6 0.00906 3 0.00902 1 0.00898 3 0.00895 0 0.00896 2 0.00896 7 0.00899 4 0.00889 5 0.00892 6 0.00880 6 0.00880 1 0.00867 3 0.00866 2 0.00852 9 CLAS S 6

0.25829 6 0.25013 7 0.24671 2 0.24411 2 0.26596 5 0.29362 7 0.30164 9 0.31259 2 0.32135 8 0.33895 4 0.37380 8 0.38742 9 0.47200 6 0.37060 5 0.33103 5 '0.22004 5 0.20674 0 0.19355 3 0.09179 7 0.10072 9 0.04011 7 0.03420 6 0.03189 0 0.01937 4 0.01866 0 0.02306 1 0.02180 5 0.02085 3 0.01985 8 0.01959 5 0.01935 0 0.01876 5 0.01828 8 0.01794 0 0.01755 9 0.01759 3 0.01778 9 0.01797 2 0.01825 7 WEIGHTIN GFACTOR S

CLAS S 7 0.08921 5 0.08632 1 0.08604 3 0.08558 0 0.09158 2 0.09972 7 0.10693 8 0.11605 4 0.12453 1 0.11782 5 0.09179 0 0.08151 0 0.06901 6 0.05860 0 0.04180 6 0.03092 4 0.03599 1 0.04558 7 0.06272 5 0.06066 8 0.07099 3 0.05117 5 0.07184 5 0.05906 3 0.07366 2 0.07769 5 0.07769 1 0.07812 3 0.07853 3 0.07925 4 0.07961 4 0.07941 4 0.07909 8 0.07817 9 0.07741 7 0.07646 7 0.07606 7 0.07512 3 0.07436 8 CLAS S 8 A

0.00879 0 0.00996 0 0.01144 5 0.01290 9 0.01569 4 0.01895 5 0.02207 7 0.02592 8 0.02996 2 0.02850 7 0.02935 8 0.02738 7 0.02635 5 0.01391 5 0.01148 8 0.00782 0 0.00727 7 0.00722 9 0.00438 1 0.00394 8 0.00208 8 0.00138 8 0.00190 4 0.00112 0 0.00122 9 0.00045 6 0.00024 6

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLAS S 8 B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11003 6 11739 2 12242 5 12282 6 11360 9 10657 4 08953 1 06834 0 04150 3 04194 6 04284 3 04790 1 05616 6 02987 6 01902 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRANSI T 0.02618 2 0.02190 1 0.02105 9 0.01933 3 0.01708 5 0.01470 3 0.00946 5 0.00648 0 0.00277 0 0.00417 2 0.00398 4 0.00414 3 0.00712 9 0.01003 3 0.00799 3 0.00181 8 0.00271 9 0.00172 4 0.00152 5

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COMMERCI ASCHOO L 0.00577 9 0.00490 1 0.00460 4 0.00425 4 0.00381 3 0.00313 3 0.00204 0 0.00144 9 0.00061 2 0.00094 9 0.00086 2 0.00091 6 0.00162 8 0.00230 5 0.00183 1 0.00042 3 0.00067 8 0.00042 8 0.00032 5

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04314 0 0.05240 7 0.04753 0 0.05038 6 0.05102 5 0.05913 3 0.05922 6 0.05103 1 0.05646 0 0.05261 7 0.04304 6 0.04076 5 0.04909 6 0.05893 5 0.04896 8 0.03021 8 0.02874 9 0.02966 7 0.03239 0 0.02461 2 0.02178 6 0.01641 8 0.01815 6 0.00970 2 0.01103 5 0.00831 6 0.00669 0 0.00552 8 0:00454 0 0100375 9 0.00299 5 0.00235 7 0.00178 4 0.00127 9 0.00090 4 0.00054 4 0.00018 9

0 0P.2 5



### -24

- Report , a s tha t wa s the mos t recen t sourc e fo r strictl yClas s 2 B newvehicl e registrations
. (Clas s 2 B newvehicl e registration s wer e assumed t o b e representative o f clas s 2 B domesti c sales. ) Historica l transi t bu s sale s wer e take n fro mthe APT

A transi t fac t book.[7 ] Commercia l bu s sale s wer e ^assume d t o b e 8 2 percen t o f transi t bu s sale s base d o n flee t registrations
. Schoo l bu s sale s wer e take n fro mth e MVM

Afac t sheet s i n similar fashio n a s th e truc k sales . Sinc e th e 196 2 t o 197 1 value s for schoo l buse s wer e no t included i n th e M0BILE 3 work , an d wer e no t availabl e in ou r MVM Afac t sheets , theywer e estimated base d on th e siz e o f th e schoo l bu s flee t give n i n the FH AHighwa

yStatistics.[6 ] Futur e clas s sale s wer e determine d b ytaking th e historica l sale s an d projecting themforward i n a manne r similar t o tha t use d i n th e M0BILE 3 analysis
. Clas s 2 B wa s projecte d using the 13thPeriodica l Report.[14 ] Classe s 3 an d 4 sale s had gon e t o zer o b y1982 . A s n o informatio n wa s foun d t o sugges t otherwise , the sale s fo r thes e classe s wa s assume d t o remai n zero . Clas s 5 sale s had bee n projecte d t o g o t o zer o i n the M0BILE 3 analysis
. However , recen t historyha s show n thi s no t t o b e true . A s a resul t o f n o availabl e preceden t fo r projectin

g Clas s 5 sales , th e additive two percen t increas e pe r yea r i n sale s whic hhad bee n assume d for Clas s 6 i n th e EE A conversio n facto r analysi s wa s assume d fo r thi s analysi s t o b e representative o f Clas s 5 a s well.[13 ] Th e futur e sale s projection s whic hwer e used i n th e MOBILE 3 analysi s fo r Classe s 6 an d 7 wer e use d her e a s well , wit hth e exceptio n tha t ne w startin g point s wer e selected base d o n th e sale s informatio n availabl e for recen t years . Clas s 8 Awa s projecte d using a historicall ybase d fraction o f 9.3 8 percen t o f th e tota l o f classe s 7 an

d 8 , whil e clas s 8 B wa s projecte d using th e 13t h periodica l report,[14 ] wit hth e exceptio n tha t th e value s wer e modifie d downward t o accoun t for difference s see n i n th e historica l dat a betwee n registration s fro mth e 13t hPeriodica l Repor t an

d MVM Asales . Transi t an d commercia l bu s sale s wer e projecte d assumin

g a n additive two percen t increas e ever y year . Schoo l bu s sale s wer e projecte d using a n extrapolatio n o f th e historica l data . Onc e al l o f thes e mode l yea r specifi c class-specifi c sale s wer e estimated , the corresponding sale s fraction s coul d b e determined
. Historica l fraction s no longe r matc hthos e presente d i n the M0BILE 3 conversio n factor s repor t du e t o the addition o f the two classe s o f schoo l buse s an d commercia l buses . Th e resultin g sale s an

d sale s fraction s ar e listed in Table s 1 4 an

d 1 5 respectively
.P.2 6

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### -27

- B . Diese l Fraction s an d Gasolin e Fraction s Th e 196 2 t o 198 2 diese l sale s fraction s use d t o calculat e th e VMT-weighting factor s ar e identica l t o thos e used i n the MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysis , an d wer e base d on factor y sale s b yU.S . domesti c manufacturer s an d export s fro

mCanada t o th e U.S . Th e gasolin e fraction s ar e simpl y1. 0 minu s th e diese l fraction
. Fo r th e 198 3 t o 198 6 time frame , th e MVM A fac t sheet s use d for determining the tota l clas s sale s wer e use d wit hthe exceptio n tha t onc e agai n estimate s for Clas s 2 B relied o n the 13thPeriodica l Report.[4,14 ] Futur e diese l penetratio n rate s int o th e individua l classe s wer e projecte d fro mthe sale s informatio n a s describe d above . Wit hthe exceptio n o f Clas s 6 , al l o f th e truc k classe s wer e assume d t o hav e th e sam e diese l penetration s i n th e yea r 199 7 a s i n th e MOBILE 3 analysis
. Thi s assumptio n wa s no t practica l for Clas s 6 du e t o th e muc hhighe r dieselizatio n o f thi s clas s in recen t year s than had bee n assume d i n the MOBILE 3 analysis
. Instead , sinc e the sale s dat a a s see n i n Tabl e 1 4 showed tha t Clas s 7 vehicle s mayb e replacing Clas s 6 vehicles , the 199 7 penetratio n fo r Clas s 7 wa s als o assume d for Clas s 6 . Transi t an

d commercia l buse s wer e assumed t o remai n al l diesel , a s theyhave alread ybee n completel ydiese l fo r a numbe r o f years , an

d thi s i s no t expecte d t o change . Neithe r EE Ano r th e MOBILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s had projecte d schoo l bu s sales . Historica l MVM Asale s dat a showe d tha t i n th e spa n o f jus t 1 0 year s sinc e diese l engine s entere d th e schoo l bu s market , theyhav e alread yreached nearl y7 0 percen t penetration
. A s a result , b yextrapolating thi s historica l data , schoo l bu s sale s wer e projecte d t o become 10 0 percen t diese l b

y1999 . Bot hhistorica l an d futur e diese l penetration s for truck s an

d buse s ar e show

n i n Tabl e 16 . C . Annua l Vehicl e Mile s Travelle d EEA' s analysi s o f th e 198 2 TIU S provide d class-specific , fuel-specifi c annua l VMT s pe r vehicl e fo r long-range , short-range , an

d loca l application s individuall ya s see n i n Tabl e 11.[5 ] Thes e value s represen t the 198 2 calenda r yea r VMT pe r vehicl e o f the vehicle s surveye d i n th e analysis
. Sinc e i t i s know n tha t diese l penetratio n affect s the averag e annua l VMT pe r vehicle , the EE Acalendar-yea r value s wer e converte d t o mode l yea r specifi c VM T pe r vehicl e value s using th e mode l yea r specifi c diese l penetration s develope d in th e previou s section
. A

n exampl e o f thi s conversio n (for Clas s 2 B fo r the 198 6 mode l year ) follows . T o begi n thi s calculation , th e Clas s 2 B vehicl e stoc k an d VMT pe r vehicl e value s wer e take n fr^mth e 198 2 TIUS .

### -28

- P.2 9



### TIU S Vehicl e Diese l Rang e Stoc k Loca l Shor t Lon g Tota l 1957 3

338 3 212 6 2508 2 TIU S TIU S

Ga s Tota l Stoc k Stoc k 880207 0 882164 3 136267 8 136606 1 41275 3 41487 9 1057750 1 1060258 3 TIU S Diese l Distributio n 0.780 4 0.134 9 0.084 7 1.000 0 TIU S

Diesel/Ga s VMT/Vehicl e 13077/1083 4 30387/1380 5 29853/1317 8
Th e diese l sale s fraction for 198 6 Clas s 2 B truck s wa s the n take n fro

mTabl e 1 6 an

d multiplie d b

ythe tota l TIU S stoc k t o determin e the numbe r o f vehicle s (out o f a flee t the siz e o f th e TIU S fleet ) tha t shoul d be diese l for the 198 6 mode l year . T o determin e the breakdow n o f thes e vehicle s amon g the local , short-range , an

d long-rang e categories , i t wa s the n assume d tha t gasolin e vehicle s switchove r t o diese l amon g thes e categorie s in the rati o in whic hdiese l vehicle s alread y existe d i n thos e categorie s unti l the long-rang e applicatio n became completel ydiesel
. At tha t time , thos e tha t woul d hav e bee n adde d t o th e long-rang e categor ywer e adde d t o th e short-rang e categor yunti l i t wa s completel ydiesel
. An y additiona l diese l vehicle s beyon d thi s wer e al l adde d int o th e loca l category . Fromthis , th e numbe r o f additiona l diesel s (or fewe r gasolin e trucks ) ove r an d above tha t determine d i n th e TIU S can b e calculated , a s wel l a s th e remaining gasolin e trucks .

Loca l Shor t Lon g Tota l 198 6 Tota l

Diese l Stoc k

245979 9 Additiona l

Diese l Stoc k 190005 3 32844 3 20622 1 243471 7 Ne t

Gasolin e Stoc k 690201 7 103423 5 20653 2 814278 4 

### At thi s point , thes e fue l specifi c an d rang e specifi c vehicl e stock s wer e multiplie d b yth e corresponding annua l VMT s (als o show

n i n Tabl e 11) . Diese l vehicle s whic hhad bee n gasolin e wer e assume d t o hav e th e annua l VMT o f th e gasolin e vehicle s whic htheyreplaced , s o tha t switching fuel s di d no t increas e th e tota l VMT o f th e vehicl e class .

Loca l Shor t Lon g Tota l 198 6 Diese l

Flee t VMT (Billions ) 20.84 1 4.63 7 2.78 1 28.25 9 198 6 Gasolin e

Flee t VM

T (Billions ) 74.77 6 14.27 8 2,72 2 91.77 6P.3 0

-29 -
Tabl e1 6 Diese lSale s Fraction s Yea r Class2 B Class3- 5 Class 6 Class 7 Class8 AClass8 B Transi t Commercia lSchoo l ,54 7 .54 7 .54 7 0. 0 .43 6 .61 6 .59 5 

### " ° -° U

### -° 4 2

### 'IJ I'fi eT9 5 

### '-595 

### .59 5 0. 0 6 3 -00 1 .01 8 -06 3 .43 6 .61 6 .59 5 ^ ^ ^ Q 6 4'° 0 1 * 0 2 2- °
. At "„_

_'69 0 • .69 0 .69 0 0. 0 6 5 .00 2 .02 6 .10 5 .44 7 .63 2 .69 0 ^ Q Q 6 6 -00 3 -02 9 .10 0 .41 3 .58 3 .72 1 O Q 6 7 .00 2 .03 1 .09 4 .7 9 .53 5 .75 1 ^ 5 8 

### -° 0 1 

### " ^ 'J " "34 8 :« ; '-86 7 .86 7 5 9 ° '. J-.07 0 3 ^.47 0 .92 5 .92 5 .92 5 7 0° '°,°,l ;o5 4 .34
. -48 2 .92 3 .92 3

.03 1 .34 8 .49 2 .03 4 .38 2 .54 0 7 4 0 -00 4 .03 8 .41 5 .58 6 .„ - -- - ^QQ " ° -°° 3 •!-. ! -j: ; .49 2 ".92 3 .92 3 7 

### * 0 -°° 4

### -" ^ •_! ! I.
. *92 0 ,92 0 .92 0 «« * .03 8 .41 5 .58 6 .y^ u• »* «

«-. i TA O dQ 2 .92 3 .y^ j .H..- J 7 2° -° 0 3 -°n i 38 2 54 0 92 1 .92 1 .92 1 0. 0

•00 4 .03 4 .38 2 .54 0 .*< i

_ 7 * 0 -00 5 .04 1 .44 9 .-- - •-- - >gi g 0> 0 

### 7 6

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# ^ol

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# 8 ".J? ; i T-TM -94 3 7 7 

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### ° 'Z 6 5 7 4 1 0 .94 3 .94 3 -01 1 7 8 

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. " 37 7 .58 0 .88 9 1. 0 1- 0 1- 0 

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### 'III n1 0 L O -31 6

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### - 2 8 

### ° ° 1 , 6 0 1 0 1. 0 L O L O ' 8 8 6 9 1 -29 0 0 -65 6 .67 0 1. 0 i. u 9L 0 9 2 .30 0 0 -66 8 .67 7 1. 0 1. 0 1- 0 1 >g2 g 9 3 .30 0 0 -67 9 .68 4 1. 0 1. 0 1- 0 1 >g4 6 9 4 .30 0 0 -68 8 .68 9 1 0 1. 0 1. 0 1 9 5 .30 0 0 -69 5 .69 4 1. 0 1. 0 1- 0 >g
_ 2 9 6 .30 0 0 -69 9 .69 8 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 1 ^ 9 7 .30 0 0 -70 0 .70 0 1. 0 1. 0 1- 0 1 >gg 4 9 8 .30 0 0 -70 0 .70 0 1. 0 1. 0 1- 0 i Q 9 9 .30 0 0 .70 0 .70 0 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 I Q 200 0 .30 0 0 -70 0 .70 0 1. 0 1- 0 1- 0P.3 1



### -30

- A t thi s point , b

ymerel ydividing th e tota l VMT fo r al l vehicl e range s b ythe corresponding mode l yea r specifi c vehicl e stocks , estimate s o f th e Clas s 2 B 198 6 mode l yea r diese l an

d gasolin e averag e annua l VMT s coul d b e determined
.

Loca l Shor t Long Av g 198 6 Diese l

Avg Annua l VMT/Ve h 1085 7 1397 4 1334 8 1148 8 198 6 Gasolin e

Av g Annua l VMT/Ve h 1083 4 1380 5 1317 8 1127 1 A s a resul t o f thi s analysis , th e averag e annua l VMT fo r a n entir e clas s (ga s an d diesel ) remain s constan t whil e they chang e for bot hgasolin e an d diese l vehicle s individually
. Thi s i s reasonable , sinc e a tren d t o mor e diese l vehicle s shoul d no t caus e a greate r numbe r o f mile s t o b e drive n b ya n entir e fleet . Asimila r analysi s wa s the n performe d fo r al l vehicl e classe s fo r al l mode l year s o f concern . Th e TIU S informatio n di d no t includ e buses , s o an equivalen t annua l VMT pe r bu s had t o b e determined
. Th e valu e fo r transi t buse s wa s obtaine d fro mdat a i n th e APT Atransi t fac t book,[7 ] whil e th e value s for th e commercia l an d schoo l buse s wer e obtaine d fro mthe FH

AHighwa

yStatistics
. [6 ] Thes e values , however , mayno t b e entirel yappropriat e fo r inclusio n int o a dat a bas e tha t consist s mostl yo f trucks , sinc e th e lif e expectencyo f a bu s i s typicall ylonge r than tha t o f a truck . Lifetime VMT pe r vehicl e i s actuall ya mor e appropriat e measur e o f a vehicle' s contributio n t o a mode l year' s lifetime emissions
. Thi s i s tru e becaus e th e conversio n factor s ar e determine d b

ymode l yea r an

d appl ythroughou t th e entir e lif e o f tha t mode l year' s vehicles
. Whe n vehicles ' live s ar e th e same i n terms o f years , the two approache s (annua l an d lifetime VMT ) yiel d th e sam e results . Bu t sinc e the live s o f buse s (i n years ) ar e longe r than othe r heavy-dut yvehicles , th e annua l approac hwoul d underestimat e thei r contributio n t o thei r mode l year' s fleet-wid e lifetim e emissions
. Thus , a n equivalen t annua l bu s VM T wa s estimate d b ymultiplying th e averag e annua l Clas s 8 B VM T pe r vehicl e o f 57,13 6 mile s b yth e rati o o f lifetime bu s VMT t o lifetim e Clas s 8 B VMT . Du e t o a lack o f an yothe r mean s o f estimating th e lifetim e VMT o f th e buses , a n estimat e wa s determine d b ydividing the annua l flee t VMT s b y th e corresponding ne wbu s sale s ove r a rang e o f 9 t o 1 9 year s for the differen t bu s classes . Thi s wa s don e for al l thre e bu s classe s a s show

n i n Table s 1 7 through19 . Th e resulting annua l VMT pe r vehicl e value s for bot htruck s an d buse s for al l mode l year s can b e seen i n Table s 2 0 an d 21 .P.3 2



### -31

- Tabl e 1 7

Yea r 196 7 196 8 196 9 197 0 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 Transi t Bu s Annua l VM T pe r Vehicl e Ne wSale s 250 0 222 8 223 0 142 4 251 4 290 4 320 0 481 8 526 1 474 5 243 7 380 5 344 0 457 2 405 9 296 2 408 1 344 4 329 6 Total/Av g 29503. 0 6392 0 HHD T Estimate d Lifetim e VM T [1 ] Rati o HHD T Annua l VM T Correcte d Transi t Annua l VMT/Vehicl e



### Flee t (Mil l 1526 . 1508 . 1478 . 1409 . 1375 . 130 8 137 0 143 1 152 6 158 1 162 3 163 0 163 3 167 7 168 4 166 8 167 7 162 1 177 1 VM T 

### ions ) 0 2 3 3 5 0 4 0 0 4 3 5 6

. 2

. 6

. 8

. 8

. 9

. 3 VMT/Sale s 61Q.4Q 0 67693 0 66291 5 98967 7 54713 6 45041 3 42825 0 29701 1 29005 9 33327 7 66610 6 42851 5 47488 4 36684 2 41502 8 56340 3 41112 5 47093 5 53740 9 46156 1 60000 0 0.7 7 5713 6 4400 0
Transi t dat a take n fromReferenc e 7 .P.3 3



### Yea r 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 -32

- Tabl e 1 8 mmmercia l Bu s Annua l VM T pe r Vehicl e Flee t VM T (Millions ) 1122. 0 131 7 131 3 145 4 149 1 182 2 185 5 190 8 197 0 6 7 5 4 8

, 4

. 2

. 2 Ne wSale s

447 2 403 3 214 5 350 1 319 9 361 2 316 6 245 8 322 4 Total/Av g 14255. 8 2981 0 HHD T Estimate d Lifetim e VM T [1 ]

HHD T Annua l VM T Correcte d Transi t Annua l VMT/Vehicl e VMT/Sale s 25089. 4 32670 5 61244 8 41545 2 46620 8 50465 1 58603 9 77632 2 61110 4 47822 2 60000 0 Rati o 0.79 7 5713 6 455 M

Bu s dat a take n fromReferenc e 6 .P.3 4



### Yea r 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 -33

- Tabl e 1 9 Schoo l Bu s Annua l VM T pe r Vehicl e Flee t VM T Ne wSale s VMT/Sale s (Millions ) 250 0 3292 1 75943 9 286 2 2912 9 9825 3 295 0 2891 5 10202 3 299 1 2864 5 10441 6 298 0 2727 3 10926 6 290 0 2853 2 10164 0 287 5 2101 7 13679 4 306 2 2227 0 13749 4 309 8 2135 6 14506 5 Total/Av g 2621 8 HHD T Estimate d Lifetim e VM T [1 ] 24005 8 10921 5 60000 0

HHD T Annua l VM T Correcte d Transi t Annua l VMT/Vehicl e
Bu s dat a take n fro mReferenc e 6 . Rati o 0.18 2 5713 6 1040 0o 0 u t#r¥rrr#<#-^tf^t^^J.tr-r#^<. r fr#*r*)trjf.*)trfr$*p^^!rf.*J! r$ rf <f *# rr-nf,^pt#-^^p*f.t&-ql.

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### -36

- D . Urba n Trave l Fraction s Th e M0BILE 3 conversio n facto r analysi s utilize d TIU S dat a simila r t o tha t use d above for th e annua l VMT pe r vehicl e calculation s t o determin e class-specific , fuel-specific , mode l yea r specifi c urban trave l fractions
. Th e mode l yea r specific , range-specifi c flee t VMT s calculate d i n th e example , above wer e reweighte d base d o n th e assumption tha t onl y8 5 percen t o f a vehicle's-VMT i s i n it s primar yus e category ; th e remaining 1 5 percen t being spli t equall ybetwee n th e othe r two categories
. The fractio n o f VMT whic hwa s loca l wa s the n assumed t o b e th e urban trave l fraction
. Althoughthi s metho d i s stil l possibl e using the dat a fro m the 198 2 TIUS , mor e accurat e information ha s sinc e become available
. Th e Universit yo f Michigan Transportatio n Researc h Institut e (UMTRI ) performe d a surveysupplementa l t o th e 198 2 TIU S i n whic hthe

ycontacte d 800 0 truc k owner s an d trace d fou

r day s o f operatio n o n map s t o determin e actua l truc k usag e patterns . Th e fraction o f vehicl e mile s fo r eac hclas s withi n the boundarie s o f urban area s wit hpopulation s o f 50,00 0 or mor e wa s assumed t o b e the urban trave l fractio n fo r tha t class . Theydi d no t surveyclas s 2 B trucks . A s a result , th e value s fo r clas s 3- 5 straigh t truck s wil l b e use d a s a surrogat e fo r clas s 2B . Theyals o di d no t surveybuses . Therefore , transi t buse s wer e assume d t o b e entirel yurban . Commercia l an

d schoo l bu s urba n trave l fraction s wer e take n fro ma n averag e o f FH

Adata.[6 ] Th e urban trave l fraction s obtaine d fro mthe UMTR I dat a ar e likel yt o b e muc hmor e accurat e for thos e vehicl e classe s surveye d than the value s obtaine d fro mth e TIUS , sinc e n o assumption s a s t o th e percen t o f trave l i n a vehicle' s primary us e category , or a s t o wha t constitute d urban trave l had t o b e made . Unfortunately , thi s metho d provide d onl y198 5 calenda r yea r urban trave l fractions , an d coul d no t easil yb e use d t o determin e mode l yea r specifi c values . A s a result , althoughi t i s a mor e accurat e measuremen t o f th e actua l urba n trave l fractio n than wa s assume d fro m the TIU S data , i t stil l ha s inheren t inaccuracie s du e t o mode l yea r specifi c effect s whic h canno t b e accounte d for . Bu t sinc e the mode l yea r t o mode l yea r variatio n tende d t o b e tathe r small , th e accuracyo f measuremen t i s though t t o b e o f greate r importance
. Th e urban trave l fraction s for bot hgasolin e an d diese l vehicle s ar e show n i n Tabl e 22 . V . Summar

yo f Result s Th e fleet-averag e emissio n conversio n factor s (i n unit s o f BHP-hr/mi ) use d in MOBILE 4 ar e listed in Tabl e 1 . MOBILE 4 class-specifi c conversio n factor s ar e listed i n Table s 5 an d 6 . Th e non-engine-relate d fue l econom yimprovement s detaile d in Table s 7 through9 , an d summarize d i n Tabl e 10 , wer e applie dP.3 8



### -37

- Tabl e 2 2 Urban Trave l Fraction s [10 ]
Vehicl e Clas s Clas s 2 B Clas s 3 Clas s 4 Clas s 5 Clas s 6 Clas s 7 Clas s 8A Clas s 8 B Transi t Commercia l Schoo l Gasolin e

0.4 5 0.4 4 0.4 4 0.4 4 0.3 1 0.4 6 0.2 5 0.0 8 1.0 0 0.2 6 0.3 4 Diese l

0.6 4 0.4 5 0.4 5 0.4 5 0.5 3 0.5 1 0.4 2 0.2 6 1.0 0 0.2 6 0.3 4

### -38

-

t o the 198 2 class-specifi c conversio n factor s t o develop the post-198 2 class-specifi c conversio n factors . Th e pas t an d futur e class-specifi c conversio n factor s wer e weighte d b yurba n vehicl e mile s travelle d t o calculat e the flee t averag e conversio n factors . Th e weighting factor s use d ar e detaile d i n Table s 1 2 an

d 13 . Figur e 1 illustrate s th e compariso n betwee n th e MOBILE 3 an

d M0BILE 4 histori c an d futur e gasolin e an d diese l flee t averag e conversion factors . Th e projecte d futur e fleet-averag e conversio n factor s show a stead

ydecreas e a s time goe s o n du e t o increased fue l economy . Diese l conversio n factor s decreas e mor e rapidl ythan gasolin e conversio n factors . Curren t M0BILE 4 flee t averag e conversio n factor s ar e lowe r than thos e projecte d b yMOBILE3 . Thi s arise s mainl ydu e t o the fac t tha t Clas s 2 B diese l sale s hav e increased , an d gasolin e sale s in th e heavie r classe s hav e decreased , causin

g heavie r weighting o f vehicle s wit hlowe r conversio n factors . VII . Recommendation s Th e futur e gasolin e an d diese l conversio n factor s presente d her e ar e base d o n estimate s an d projections
. Ther e ar e severa l area s wher e th e presen t degre e o f uncertaint yi s fairl yhighan

d wher e furthe r dat a coul d significantl yreduc e th e uncertaint yo f the results . Th e mos t importan t are a o f concern i s fue l economy . Bette r documente d dat a o n curren t urban fue l econom yi s needed , sinc e the TIU S onl yaddresse s nationwid e fue l econom yan d the accuracyo f th e submittal s b ysurveyee s i s unknown . Equall y importan t i s th e need for furthe r information o n the effect s o f futur e technolog

yo n urba n fue l econom yimprovements
. Thi s i s the mai n facto r in projecting futur e conversio n factors , assumin g fue l densit ywil l no t chang e significantl yi n th e nex t 2 5 years . Th e urban fue l econom yimpac t o f technologica l development s i n area s sucha s radia l tires , lubrication , aerodynami c dra g reduction , an d spee d contro l ar e no t wel l know n an d th e penetratio n o f thes e technologie s int o th e heavy-dut yvehicl e marke t i s quit e dependen t o n futur e fue l price s an

d manufacturers ' marketing strategies
. An yne wdat a i n thes e area s wil l b e veryusefu l i n improvin g futur e projection s o f th e emissio n conversio n factors . Asecon

d importan t are a for furthe r stud yi s the estimatio n o f th e urban VMT fractio n fo r th e variou s classe s o f heavy-dut yvehicles
. Th e TIU S informatio n use d i n the MOBILE 3 analysi s yield s onl ya surrogat e for urba n VMT fraction
. O n th e othe r hand , the UMTR I information use d in thi s analysi s i s no t model-yea r specific
. Information wit hth e accuracyo f the UMTR I data , ye t wit hth e capabilit yt o b e mad e mode l yea r specific , a s wit hthe TIU S data , woul d provid e th e optimu m information
.3. 4

2 \ rX. 1 Q . X 00 D

_ O \- O < 

### u . -7 

### o l/ > 

### or : 

### u > 

### z o o 2. 8

2. 6 2. 4 2. 2 2 1. 8 1. 6 1. 4 1. 2 1 0. 8



# • 6 0
M 4 DIESE L 

# FIGUR E 1 FLEE TAVERAG E CONVERSIO N FACTOR S

7 0 8 0

MODE LYEA R 9 0
M 3 DIESE L M 4 GAS 200 0
M 3 GA

.

-P.4 1



### -40

- Reference s 1 . "Heavy-DutyVehicl e Emissio n Conversio n Factor s 1962-1997, " Mahlo n C . Smith , IV , EPA-AA-SDSB-84-1 , August , 1984 . 2 . "Moto r Gasolines , Summe r 1982 , Winte r 1982-83 , Summe r 1983 , Winte r 1983-84 , Summe r 1984 , Winte r 1984-85 , Summe r 1985 , Winte r 1985-86, " Chery l L . Dickson , Pau l W . Woodward , Nationa l Institut e for Petrolue man d Energ yResearc h (NIPER) , fo r th e American Petroleu mInstitut e an

d th e U.S . Departmen t o f Energy , Augus t 1986 . 3 . "MVM

ANationa l Diese l Fue l Survey, " Summe r Seaso n Report , Jul y1982 , 1983,1984 , 1985 . 4 . "Factor

ySale s - Truck s an d Buse s b

yMak e an

d G.V.W, " Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Associatio n o f th e U.S. , 1 2 month s 197 5 through1 2 month s 1986 . 5 . "Analysi s o f the 198 2 Truc k inventor yan d Us e Survey, " Energ

yan d Environmenta l Analysis , Inc. , for th e U.S . EPA , Decembe r 1986 . 6 . "Highwa

yStatistics, " Federa l Highway Administration , 196 8 - 1984 . 7 . Transi t Fac t Book , American Publi c Transi t Association , May1985 . 8 . "Radia l Truc k Tir e Trends, " Lloy d C . Cooper , Fireston e Tir e an

d Rubbe r Co. , SA

E pape r No . 851463 , Augus t 1985 . 9 . "Comparison o f On-Road an d Wind-Tunne l Test s fo r Tractor-Traile r Aerodynami c Devices , an d Fue l Saving s Predictions, " JeffreyW . Saunders , et.al. , SA E pape r No . 850286 . 10 . Presentatio n Mad e b yth e Engin e Manufacturer s Association , an

d Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Associatio n t o th e Emissio n Contro l Technolog yDivisio n o f th e Environmenta l Protectio n Agencyo n Marc h7 , 1988 . 11 . Lette r fro

mDanie l Blower , Researc hAssociate , Universit yo f Michigan Transportatio n Researc hInstitute , t o Pau l Machiele , Mechanica l Engineer , SDSB/ECTD/EPA , Apri l 19 , 1988 . 12 . "Moto r Vehicl e Fact s an d Figures, " Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Association , 196 4 throug h1987 .P.4 2



### -41

- Reference s (cont'd ) 13 . Historica l an d Projecte d Emission s Conversio n Facto r an d Fue l Econom

yfor Heavy-Dut yTruck s 1962-2002 , prepare d for Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Associatio n b yEnerg

yan d Environmenta l Analysis , Inc. , 165 5 N . For : Maye r Drive , Arlington , Virgini a 22209 , Decembe r 1983 . 14 . "Th

e Moto r Fue l Consumptio n Model ; 13thPeriodica l Report, " Prepare d for Marti n Mariett a Energ ySystems , Inc. , b

y Energ yan d Environmenta l Analysis , Inc. , Ma y26 , 1987 .



# LP.4 3

Appendi xA

UMTR I Surve yo f Percen t Penetratio n o f Fue l Econom yImprovemen t Device s Tn Mnir-T" 1 P1

-- ^ h V Mode l Year C 1 2 l

Mode l Aar o Body Yea r MHD T HHD T 6 8 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7 4 7 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 3. 4 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 6. 3 3. 2 5. 1 5. 9 15. 8 10. 6 14. 8 15. 4 15. 5 5. 4

5. 1 0. 0 0. 0 1. 3 0. 0 0. 7 2. 3 4. 9 2. 3 6. 2 7. 5 10. 1 12. 8 19. 9 28. 2 Aer o Add-o n MHD T HHD T 6. 9 0. 0 0. 0 3. 4 0. 0 0. 0 1. 5 0. 0 0. 0 1. 4 8 2

, 7

. 3

. 9

. 0 10 , 0 1 0 1 2 6 1 0

, 4

. 7

. 1

. 5 5. 0 5. 7 9. 7 8. 5 9. 6 9. 3 13. 5 22. 2 29. 1 25. 4 Radia l Tire s MHD T HHD T variabl e Fa n

MHD T HHD T Governo r

MHD T HHD T
32. 0 22. 7 27. 0 29. 5 36. 5 39. 9 47. 2 36. 4 51. 4 41. 0 48. 6 44. 1 50. 4 45. 4 57. 3 58. 5 48. 0 26. 3 27. 1 25. 8 41. 1 43. 2 39. 4 46. 5 57. 7 53. 9 60. 1 57. 0 64. 5 65. 9 74. 4 77. 4 10. 9

11. 3 6. 9 29. 3 14. 9 12. 2 20. 2 14. 0 25. 7 28. 6 28. 6 3 6 3 2 2 8 3 2 2 6 . 5

. 9

. 0

. 0

, 2

. 7

. 5

. 7

. 0 15 . 10 , 1 2 5 , 12 , 15 . 15 . 14 . 26 , • 33. 6 43. 4 42 , 56 . 46. 8 62. 6 58. 9 . 6

. 9 19. 4 20. 7 21. 5 11. 2 18. 8 17. 1 22. 5 19. 0 22. 0 22. 8 30. 3 24. 2 28. 8 23. 2 29. 5 27. 7 28 , 2 1 29. 8 12. 3 23 . 22 . 19 , 1 7 2 2 1 9 2 3 6 1 6

, 3

. 1

. 5

. 2 20. 6 22. 8 30. 5 33. 9 32. 0P.4 4



### Appendi xB :
Compute r Progra

mUse d t o Calculat e th e Futur e Non-Engin e Relate d Fue l Econom yImprovement sP.4 5

THI S I S APROGRA MiHAT _r4LCULATE 3 ^UE L ECONOM Y IMPROVEMENT S T O B E USE DI NCALCULATIN GFUTUR E
_ CONVERSIO NFACTOR S FO R EMISSION S (IN G/BHP-HR T lHPf~F T LE E AR E "9 = . . . DIEB23 . DA T DIES_.DA T DIE_7 . DA T D IE3S A.DA T :. | I
_, i i

f 5 . DA T -•I- R DIESE L ~UE L ECONOM Y IMPROVEMENT ? -N D , . . 3A32B . DA T f ' u M: : . . . _

• AT GA34 , DA T '.•jAS_
. _>A

7 '.iiH

__. L'A T GAS7.DA T GASSA.DA T "C- ~ GASOLIN E -UE L ZCGNOM vIMPROVEMENT S Z'-JTrXT "ILE S AR E ' :- = , . . DIEB2B . OUT . DIE_6 . OUT . . . . FG R DIESE L

' i_T = . . .GABCB.0UT.GAS3.CUT . . . .FO R GASOLIN E M-:,P3_TH E FRACTIO NO F VE H 4 CL2 S CLASSIFIE D FOR . EAC H M vA S „GCA L ..'F:_ ;-'=T-; E FRAC7 . '.J

- -EH . CLAS S IFIE D -O R EAC H M Y A S SHOR T RANG E .r-~ = r;-.:. ; -='AC'] \ Oi^ VEH . CLASSIFIE D FO R EAC H M Y A S LON GPAM6 E -FFFEI-TH E PERCEN T "UE L ECONOM Y IMPROVEMEN T ASSUME D T O •-•-.

,'SHICL E i r

G R TH E IMPROVEMEN T TYP E I NQUESTIO N •-•FLAFF=THE " . OF

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