Outlook to 2060 for World Forests 

and Forest Industries

A Technical Document Supporting

the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zhu, 

Ronald Raunikar, and Jeffrey P. Prestemon
Product Disclaimer

The use of trade or firm names in this publication is for 

reader information and does not imply endorsement by the 

U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service.

The Authors:

Joseph Buongiorno, Professor Emeritus, Department of Forest 

and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; 

Shushuai Zhu, Assistant Scientist, Department of Forest and 

Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; 

Ronald Raunikar, Economist, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo 

Park, CA; Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Research Forester, Forestry 

Sciences Laboratory, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC.

April 2012

Southern Research Station

200 W. T. Weaver Blvd.

Asheville, NC 28804

www.srs.fs.usda.gov
Outlook to 2060 for World Forests 

and Forest Industries: 

A Technical Document Supporting 

the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zhu, Ronald Raunikar, and Jeffrey P. Prestemon

v

Contents

List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

The Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Theory and Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Model Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios and Global Forest Products Model Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

National Gross Domestic Product Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Fuelwood Demand Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Technical Change Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Observed and Projected Evolutions of the Forest Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Forest Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Forest Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Solid Wood Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Fuelwood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Industrial Roundwood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Sawnwood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Wood-Based Panels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Wood Pulp and Other Fibers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Paper and Paperboard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Value Added . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Literature Cited . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Index of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Tables 1-48 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Appendix A: Global Forest Products Model formulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Appendix B: Gross Domestic Product growth assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Appendix C: Fuelwood demand assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

Appendix D: Technical change assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

vii

List of Figures

Figure 1 — Within each country, the Global Forest Products Model describes the flow and transformation 

of wood products, from the forest inventory to the end products and paper recycling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Figure 2 — Forest area by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Figure 3 — Forest stock by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Figure 4 — World prices of fuelwood, industrial roundwood, and sawnwood, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 5 — Fuelwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . 14

Figure 6 — Fuelwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . 16

Figure 7 — Industrial roundwood consumption (except energy wood) by world region, observed and projected

with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Figure 8 — Total industrial roundwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Figure 9 — Sawnwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . 26

Figure 10 — Sawnwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . 28

Figure 11 — World prices of wood-based panels, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . 30

Figure 12 — Wood-based panels consumption by world region, observed and projected with the

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Figure 13 — Wood-based panels net trade by world region, observed and projected with the

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Figure 14 — World prices of papermaking fibers, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . 38

Figure 15 — Wood pulp consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . 40

Figure 16 — Wood pulp net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . 44

Figure 17 — Waste paper recovery rate by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . 46

Figure 18 — Waste paper consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . 48

Figure 19 — Waste paper net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . 52

Figure 20 — World prices of paper and paperboard by world region, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Figure 21 — Paper and paperboard consumption by world region, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Figure 22 — Paper and paperboard net trade by world region, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Figure 23 — Value added to wood and fiber in forest industries by world region, observed and projected with the 

Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

FigureB1 — Projection of Gross Domestic Product per capita in China, the Republic of Korea, and India, 

given the IPCC projection of GDP per capita for Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Abstract

Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and 

Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, 

volume, products demand and supply, international trade, prices, and value 

added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South 

America, and selected countries. Scenario A1B presents a 5.5-fold increase 

in world fuelwood use that leads to high prices of fuelwood and industrial 

roundwood, driven by especially strong demand in Asia for large imports 

from South America and Europe. World roundwood consumption reaches 

11.2 billion m3 in 2060, exceeding the increment of forests, particularly in 

Asia. Even under scenarios A2 and B2, the harvest in Asia is unsustainable. 

However, scenario A1B and a low fuelwood demand lead to a global 

harvest of 3.6 billion m3 only and to a sustainable forest volume. The world 

consumption of manufactured wood products grows modestly under most 

scenarios, with slight changes in prices. Consumption and value added in 

industries increases more rapidly in Asia, due to the fast economic growth 

of China and India in all scenarios. As a result, Asia is a large importer of 

industrial roundwood from South America and Europe and of paper and 

paperboard from Europe and North America. 

Keywords: Energy, forecasting, Global Forest Products Model, industries, 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, markets, policy. 

Introduction

During the last three decades, international trade of forest 

products has expanded rapidly. As a case in point, China’s 

rapid economic growth has had profound effects on the forest 

economies of the Asian Pacific and the United States through 

demand for raw materials and exports of processed wood 

products (Katsigris and others 2005). Therefore, the forest 

portion of the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) report 

anchors the national assessment in an international context, 

with specific focuses on U.S. imports and exports and how 

domestic production and prices relate to developments in the 

global forest sector.1 Using the Global Forest Products Model 

(GFPM) (Buongiorno and others 2003, updated in Buongiorno 

and Zhu 2011a), the authors of this document developed 

projections for world regions and selected countries that were 

consistent with the more detailed national projections of the 

United States Forest Products Module (Ince and others 2011). 

1The assessment is mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable 

Resources Planning Act of 1974.

In addition to trade, climate change is an issue that may 

impact world forests. To address this potential impact, 

the 2010 RPA Forest Assessment is linked directly to 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios 

(Nakicenovic and others 2001) on projections (including 

global and regional economic activity, population, land uses, 

and greenhouse gases and biofuel consumption [see also 

Alcamo and others 2005]) that could have major implications 

for forests and forest industries.

The objective of this study was to assess consequences of the 

IPCC projections for the world’s forest economy. We looked 

at four scenarios. Three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B2) adopt 

the IPCC assumptions, with varying but large future biofuel 

production. A fourth scenario assumes the same economic and 

demographics as A1B but a lower demand for energy wood. 

In this paper, we first describe the GFPM structure and 

calibration, then discuss the three IPCC scenarios as they were 

implemented in the GFPM, and next present results, consisting 

of projections to 2060 for forest area and forest stock, and for 

the prices, consumption, and trade of wood, wood products, 

and other papermaking fibers. We also offer global projections 

for the main regions and for selected individual countries in 

each region. 

The Global Forest Products Model

Theory and Structure

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is a spatial 

dynamic economic model of the forest products sector of 

the world economy. The model simulates the evolution of 

competitive world markets for forest products and recognizes 

180 countries (table 1) and their interaction through world 

economic trade. For each country, the model simulates 

changes in forest area and forest stock, and calculates 

consumption, production, and trade of up to 14 commodity 

groups (fig. 1). In each projected year, the model computes 

prices that clear world markets for all products. 

Outlook to 2060 for World Forests and Forest 

Industries: A Technical Document Supporting 

the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zhu, Ronald Raunikar, and Jeffrey P. Prestemon
2

The GFPM is a dynamic system due to its difference 

equations: the equilibrium in a particular year is a function of 

the equilibrium in the previous year, but the two equilibriums 

are computed sequentially, not simultaneously, thus avoiding 

the strong assumption of perfect foresight. An earlier version 

of the GFPM and several applications are described in detail 

by Buongiorno and others (2003). The most recent version, 

including the software, documentation, and one data set, is 

available at http://fwe.wisc.edu/facstaff/buongiorno/. 

Figure 1 shows the flow and transformation of wood products 

in each country. At one end of the flow is the supply of raw 

materials, including fuelwood and industrial roundwood, 

which depend directly on the forest inventory. At the other 

end is the demand for end products, sawnwood, woodbased panels, and paper and paperboard. In between is the 

transformation of industrial roundwood into intermediate 

(pulp) or end products. 

Additional sources of raw materials are nonwood fiber pulp 

and the waste paper recovered after consumption of paper and 

paperboard. In this particular application, part of what used 

to be industrial roundwood may be diverted to fuelwood if 

and when, due to high biofuel demand, the price of fuelwood 

approaches that of industrial roundwood (dashed arrow in 

fig. 1). The GFPM has a static element that describes the world 

spatial market equilibrium in a particular year, and a dynamic 

element that simulates the changes from year to year.

Global equilibrium

Computation of the spatial equilibrium in any given year relies 

on Samuelson’s (1952) demonstration that this equilibrium 

results from maximization of “social surplus,” which in the 

GFPM is the sum of the producer and consumer surplus. 

Equivalently, this is the value to consumers of all end products 

in all countries minus the costs of supplying the raw materials, 

transforming the raw materials into end products, and 

transportation (equation 1 in appendix A).

The essential constraints that describe the equilibrium are the 

material balance constraints that ensure that, for each country 

and product, the total supply is equal to the total demand. 

The left-hand side of the equation refers to the total imports 

and domestic production of a country. The right-hand side 

expresses how much of the particular product is consumed 

as an end product, used as input in the production of another 

product, or exported. 

In the GFPM, the final demand and the raw materials supply 

are represented by econometric equations. The intermediate 

demand and supply are represented by input-output 

coefficients, and by the corresponding output-dependent 

manufacturing cost, which covers labor, energy, and capital. 

The marginal manufacturing cost depends on the level of 

production, and the transport cost depends on the export price 

of the product and the import tax duty. With local linearization 

of the demand, supply, and manufacturing cost equations, the 

problem describing the global equilibrium has a quadratic 

objective function and linear constraints. 

3ULPDU\SURGXFW ,QWHUPHGLDWHSURGXFW (QGSURGXFW

2WKHULQGXVWULDOURXQGZRRG 2WKHULQGXVWULDOURXQGZRRG

,QYHQWRU\ )XHOZRRG )XHOZRRG

,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRG 6DZQZRRG

3O\ZRRG

3DUWLFOHERDUG

)LEHUERDUG

0HFKDQLFDOSXOS 1HZVSULQW

&KHPLFDOSXOS 3ULQWLQJ	ZULWLQJSDSHU

2WKHUILEHUSXOS 2WKHUSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUG

:DVWHSDSHU

Figure 1—Within each country, the Global Forest Products Model describes the flow and transformation of wood products, from the forest inventory to the end 

products and paper recycling.
3

The dual solution of this quadratic program gives a shadow 

price for each material-balance constraint, which is the 

market-clearing equilibrium price for each product and 

country in the particular year considered. In the absence of 

trade limits, the export price is the same for all exporting 

countries, while the price in importing countries is equal to 

the export price plus the transport cost. Price distortions may 

occur in individual countries due to trade inertia constraints 

used in the GFPM to express the incomplete adjustment of 

trade to changes in economic conditions. 

Market dynamics

The dynamic element of the GFPM describes endogenous 

and exogenous temporal changes in the conditions of the 

global sector. For example, one type of exogenous change 

refers to the yearly shift of the demand for the end products 

due to economic growth. For a given price, the demand for a 

particular product in a country in the current year depends on 

last year’s demand and on the rate of Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) growth (Simangunsong and Buongiorno 2001). 

The wood supply for industrial roundwood and fuelwood 

shifts endogenously over time according to how forest stock 

changes (also endogenously) (Turner and others 2006). Forest 

stock changes as a result of forest area change, harvest, and 

growth of stock on the remaining forest. The change in forest 

area in the GFPM depends on the level of GDP per capita 

according to an “environmental Kuznets curve” (Turner and 

others 2006), which implies that as GDP per capita increases, 

forest area decreases at a decreasing rate, then forest area 

increases at an increasing rate up to maximum, beyond which 

forest area increases at a decreasing rate up to a point where 

forest area stabilizes. The endogenous rate of growth of forest 

stock, without harvest, is described by an inverse relation 

between growth and forest density as the ratio of forest 

volume to forest area. 

Technical change in the GFPM is represented by exogenous 

changes of the input-output coefficients and of the manufacturing 

cost. Given these changes from one period to the next, the GFPM 

calculates the global market equilibrium in the next period, and 

the process is repeated until the end of the projection. 

Model Calibration

The demand elasticity parameters were based on 

Simangunsong and Buongiorno (2001), updated with more 

recent data, and the timber supply parameters were based on 

Turner and others (2006). The main database for production, 

import, and export data was the Food and Agriculture 

Organization (United Nations) Statistical Database 

(FAOSTAT) (FAO 2009). The GDP and population data came 

from the World Development Indicators (WDI) data bank 

(World Bank 2008). The data on forest area and forest stock 

were from the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 

(FAO 2006). The demand elasticities are presented in table 2. 

In all countries except the United States, the price elasticity of 

supply of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, i.e., the percent 

change in supply due to a one percent change in price, was 

1.31, the elasticity with respect to growing stock was 1.10, and 

the elasticity with respect to forest area was -0.17 (Turner and 

others 2006), the negative value reflecting the higher cost of 

harvesting a given volume from a larger area. 

For the United States, the price elasticity and rate of shift 

of wood supply and the rate of forest area change were 

exogenous and the same as in the United States Forest 

Products Module (USFPM) (table 3). The rates of shift of 

timber supply reflect in part future climate changes.

For the other countries, parameters of the Kuznets curve 

describing forest area change as a function of GDP per 

capita, and the parameters of the relationship between forest 

growth and forest stock on the residual forest were taken from 

Turner and others (2006), updated with more recent data. The 

constants of the forest area change equation and of the forest 

growth equation were calibrated so that the predicted values 

in the base year (2006) were equal to the most recent observed 

values in each country. 

The calibration methods used to estimate the input-output 

coefficients and the corresponding manufacturing costs were 

those described in Buongiorno and others (2001), and updated 

in Buongiorno and Zhu (2011b). The main databases are the 

FAOSTAT (FAO 2009) and the WDI data bank (World Bank 

2008). The calibration is done with goal programming. For 

each country, the method uses smoothed data on production, 

imports, exports, and prices from 1992 to 2007 to estimate 

input-output coefficients for the base year 2006 by minimizing 

the deviation of calculated from observed production for 

all products, given a-priori bounds on the input-output 

coefficients. Manufacturing costs are estimated as the 

difference between the price of a product and the cost of wood 

and fiber that go into it, under the assumption of equilibrium 

and thus zero net profit (beyond a normal return to capital). 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Scenarios and Global Forest Products Model 

Drivers

Three scenarios (labeled A1B, A2, and B2) developed by the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were 

initially selected to set the basic assumptions for the 2010 RPA 

Forest Assessment (USDA Forest Service, 2012). A fourth 

scenario (labeled A1B-Low Fuelwood) was added later, and 
4

makes the same assumptions as scenario A1B, except for the 

assumption about demand for fuelwood.

Each scenario is based on a separate IPCC storyline about 

the direction of global social, economic, technical, and 

policy developments. The storylines also reflect different 

directions possible for the interaction between developing and 

industrialized countries. The main characteristics of the three 

scenarios are presented in table 4.

Scenario A1B assumes continuing globalization that leads to 

high income growth and low population growth. The scenario 

implies the highest income per capita in 2060 among all 

scenarios, and assumes a rapid growth of biofuel demand, 

specifically, that global consumption of biofuels increased 5.5 

times from 2006 to 2060. 

Scenario A2 assumes a slowdown of globalization and the rise 

of more regional interests, leading to a lower income growth 

than scenario A1B, and higher population growth, and thus 

lower income per capita. In the scenario, biofuel production 

grows more slowly than in A1B but is still substantial, with 

global production by 2060 reaching 2.7 times that of 2006.

Scenario B2 has economic and demographic assumptions 

that fall between scenarios A1B and A2, and global fuelwood 

production reaches 2.9 times that of 2006 by 2060. 

For the GFPM simulations, the exogenous variables taken 

from these scenarios are the growth of GDP, population, and 

global fuelwood demand. 

National Gross Domestic Product Assumptions

Assumptions about Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 

individual countries were obtained by first projecting national 

GDP per capita and then multiplying by national population, 

except for the United States, for which future GDP growth rates 

were established separately (USDA Forest Service, 2012). For the 

other countries, the main assumption was that the GDP per capita 

of the different countries would converge between 2006 and 2060 

(Sala-i-Martin 2006), and specifically that, by the year 2100, the 

GDP per capita of all the countries within a region would be the 

same as well as equal to the average regional GDP per capita 

predicted by each IPCC scenario.

A secondary assumption was that the ratio of the GDP per 

capita of a particular country to the GDP per capita of its 

region would evolve from its initial value in 2006 to 1.0 

in 2100 according to the logarithmic difference equation 

described in Appendix B. Tables 5 and 6 summarize the rate 

of growth of GDP and the level of GDP per capita obtained 

with this procedure for selected countries and world regions. 

Fuelwood Demand Assumptions

For scenarios A1B, A2, and B2, it was assumed that, between 

2006 and 2060, the world fuelwood consumption would grow 

as the world biofuel consumption predicted by the IPCC 

(i.e., approximately 5.5 times for scenario A1B, 2.7 times for 

scenario A2, and 2.9 times for scenario B2).

Another assumption was the convergence of the 

consumption per capita of fuelwood (energy wood) across 

countries, analogous to the past convergence observed 

for other products (Buongiorno 2009). Specifically, the 

assumption was that, by 2060, the ratio of national to 

world fuelwood consumption would be equal to the ratio of 

national to world GDP.

From these two assumptions, we computed the national 

fuelwood consumption in 2060 and the corresponding 

national annual growth rate of demand that would be 

needed between 2006 and 2060, at constant price, to 

achieve the level consumption in 2060. The demand growth 

rate applied to the GFPM gave projections of demand that 

differed from the desired level due to the endogenous 

change in price. The demand growth rate was then adjusted 

iteratively until the desired level of global consumption was 

achieved (appendix C).

For scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood, the demand for fuelwood 

was entirely defined by econometric demand equations. For 

high-income countries, the price elasticity was -0.1 and the 

GDP elasticity was 0.2 (Simangunsong and Buongiorno 2001). 

For low-income countries, the same price elasticity was used 

with a GDP elasticity of 0.05 to continue past trends. 

Technical Change Assumptions

Technology for manufacture of wood products is mature 

but not static. Marginal improvements in techniques and 

equipment were made between 1961 and 2005, with less wood 

use per unit of output and more recycled paper used in making 

paper and paperboard (Kando and Buongiorno 2009).

Information about improvements in technology, in our 

view, is incorporated at the rate any necessary equipment 

changes are made, and because the state of the art in a mature 

industry is increasing slowly, inefficient producers have an 

opportunity to catch up with the best available technology. In 

this application, the assumption was made that the least cost 

techniques observed in 2006 would improve further by 2060. 

Furthermore, the assumption was made, too, that technology 

would become more similar across countries, using less 

wood per unit of output and more waste paper instead of pulp 

(appendix D). 
5

Observed and Projected Evolutions 

of the Forest Economy

In this section, we present results of four scenarios run with 

the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) for the following 

aspects of the world forest economy: forest area and forest 

stock; and prices, consumption, production, and trade of 

wood, wood products, and other papermaking fibers. We 

also offer global projections for the main regions and for 

selected individual countries in each region. We preface 

the projections with findings from an observed history 

(1992 to 2006, unless otherwise noted) of each aspect. The 

projections for each aspect cover the years 2006 to 2060, 

unless otherwise noted. 

Forest Area

Figure 2 shows the observed and projected forest area by 

world region. Table 7 shows data for the main countries in 

each region. The data from 1992 to 2006 are interpolations 

and extrapolations of the data in the Global Forest Resources 

Assessment 2005 (FAO 2006) and earlier assessments. 

The data from 2007 to 2060 are projections obtained with 

the Global Forest Products Model (GPFM). As indicated 

above in the description of the dynamics of the GFPM, the 

evolution of forest area depends on the historical rate of 

change and the projected level of Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) per capita.

Observed forest area evolution

Between 1992 and 2006, the world forest area decreased by 111 

million ha. In developing countries, forest area decreased by 123 

million ha and increased by 12 million ha in developed countries. 

The largest reductions were in Africa (-57 million ha, with -6 

million in Nigeria) and in South America (-55 million, with -40 

million ha in Brazil).2 In Europe, the forest area increased by 12 

million ha. 

Projected forest area evolution

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world forest area 

increases by 63 million ha, almost equally in developed and 

developing countries. The largest regional increases are in 

Asia (+96 million ha in China, and 28 million ha in India) and 

Europe (+49 million ha, spread over several countries). The 

largest regional reductions are in South America (-28 million 

ha, due mostly to a loss of 52 million ha in Brazil), Africa 

(-20 million ha), and North/Central America (-19 million ha, 

largely due to the -29 million ha in the United States). 

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the world forest area 

declines by 628 million ha, with 431 million ha in developing 

2 Here and in the remainder of the paper, a “-” sign in the text refers to a 

reduction, and a “+” sign to an increase. The data in the tables are in levels.

countries and 198 million ha in developed countries. The largest 

regional decrease is in South America (-217 million ha, of which 

-163 million ha in Brazil). In Europe, the decrease of 175 million 

ha is due mostly to -197 million ha in the Russian Federation. 

There are declines in Africa (by 127 million ha) and Asia (by 

62 million ha, due mostly to -54 million ha in Indonesia). 

In North/Central America, there is little change except for 

decreases of 6 million ha in Mexico and 25 million ha in the 

United States, adding up to a regional decrease of 

39 million ha. There is a decrease of 7 million ha in Oceania.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world forest area 

declines by 305 million ha, with most of the decline in 

developing countries (-287 million ha). The largest regional 

declines are in South America (-161 million ha, with 

-132 million ha in Brazil) and Africa (-93 million ha). There is 

more reduction in North/Central America (-26 million ha, with 

-19 million ha in the United States) than in Asia, where the 

increase in China (+43 million ha) and India (+14 million ha) 

compensates for the decrease in Indonesia (-51 million ha). 

There is a decrease in Europe of 6 million ha, due mostly to 

the 48 million ha decrease in the Russian Federation. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood led to the same projections as scenario A1B because 

the assumptions for GDP per capita were the same. 

Forest Stock

Figure 3 shows the observed and projected forest stock 

(standing volume of trees) by world region. Table 8 shows data 

for the stock levels in the main countries in each region. The 

data from 1992 to 2006 are interpolations and extrapolations 

of the data in the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 

(FAO 2006) and earlier assessments. The data from 2007 to 

2060 are GFPM projections. 

The evolution of the forest stock depends on the evolution of 

forest area, the periodic harvest, and the growth rate of the 

residual stock, which is inversely related to the stock density 

(stock per unit area). Due to this relationship, and depending 

on the initial growth rate of forest stock on nonharvested 

areas, the forest stock could increase while the forest area 

decreased in some countries, and vice-versa. 

Observed forest stock evolution

Between 1992 and 2006, the forest stock decreased in 

developing countries by 14 billion m3 and increased in 

developed countries by 10 billion m3. The largest regional 

decrease was in South America (-7 billion m3, with 

-6 billion in Brazil). In Asia, the forest stock decreased by 

3 billion m3 due principally to a 7 billion m3 decrease in 

Indonesia, partly compensated by a 2 billion m3 increase 
6

)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR$%















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR%















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

Figure 2—Forest area by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR$















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





V

Forest area, scenario A1B

Forest area, scenario A2
7



)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR$















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 2 (continued)— Forest area by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





       

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







)RUHVW$UHDVFHQDULR%















       

<HDU

7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGKHFWDUHV

Forest area, scenario B2

Forest area, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
8

)RUHVW6WRFNVFHQDULR$%





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH























0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

)RUHVW6WRFNVFHQDULR%





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH























0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 3—Forest stock by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



)RUHVW6WRFNVFHQDULR$





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

)RUHVW6WRFN$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Forest stock, scenario A1B

Forest stock, scenario A2
9



)RUHVW6WRFNVFHQDULR$





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



)RUHVW6WRFN$%ORZIXHOZRRG





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 3 (continued)—Forest stock by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





       

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







)RUHVW6WRFNVFHQDULR%





















       

<HDU

0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH























0LOOLRQFXELFPHWHUV

Forest stock, scenario B2

Forest stock, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
10

in China. The stock declined in Africa by 3 billion m3 but 

increased in Europe by 5 million m3 (spread out over many 

countries) and in North America (mostly in the United States) 

by 3 billion m3.

Projected forest stock evolution

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world growing 

stock decreases by 22 billion m3, with 14 million m3 in 

developing countries. The largest regional decrease is in 

Asia (-18 billion m3, of which -10 billion m3 were in China). 

There is a projected decrease also for North/Central America 

(by 15 billion m3, spread among Canada, the United States, 

and Mexico) but an increase in South America (+18 billion 

m3, with +13 billion m3 in Brazil). Thus, it appears that the 

growth rate of stock, notably high in Brazilian new forests, 

more than compensates for the decrease in forest area 

observed above. There is a decrease in Oceania of 

2 billion m3 and little change in Europe. 

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the world growing stock 

decreases by 17 billion m3. This is larger than under scenario 

A1B in total but with a larger decrease in developing 

countries (-26 billion m3) and an increase in developed 

countries (+9 billion m3). The largest regional declines are 

in Asia (-11 billion m3, with -7 billion m3 in China) and 

Africa (-7 billion m3). In South America, where the stock 

is projected under A1B to increase, the stock changes little. 

Meanwhile, the stock of North/Central America (where the 

stock is projected under A1B to decrease) increases by 

4 billion m3 in the United States. There is little overall 

change in growing stock in Europe, where the 13 billion 

m3 decrease in the Russian Federation is compensated by 

increases in several other countries. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world growing stock 

increases modestly, by 12 billion m3, although the stock 

decreases by 15 billion m3 in developing countries. As under 

scenario A2, the largest regional decline in growing stock is 

in Asia (-11 billion m3, with -8 billion m3 in China and 

-4 billion m3 in India and Indonesia). There are also declines 

in Africa (-4 billion m3) and North/Central America, 

although, globally, these declines are more than compensated 

by increases for Europe (+18 billion m3, with 3 billion m3 in 

the Russian Federation) and South America (+9 billion m3, 

with +6 billion m3 in Brazil).

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the world growing stock increases by 101 billion m3, 

with more than half of that increase in developing countries. 

The largest regional increases are in South America (+44 

billion m3, with 32 billion m3 in Brazil) and Europe (+37 

billion m3, with 12 billion m3 in the Russian Federation). In 

North/Central America, the growing stock increases by 

9 billion m3, mostly due to the 11 billion m3 increase in the 

United States. There are modest positive changes in Asia (with 

declines in Indonesia, China, and India compensated in part 

by a combined 6 billion m3 increase in Japan and Oceania). 

Solid Wood Prices

Figure 4 shows the past and projected world real prices of 

fuelwood, industrial roundwood, and sawnwood, measured by 

the unit value of exports expressed in 1997 U.S. dollars. Tables 

9, 10, and 11 show the prices of the same commodities in the 

major countries within each world region. The data from 1961 

to 2006 came from the FAOSTAT database (FAO 2009). The 

projections to 2060 were obtained with the GFPM.

Observed evolution of solid wood prices

Between 1961 and 2006, the real prices of fuelwood, industrial 

roundwood, and sawnwood fluctuated considerably. Prices 

were highest in the 1970s. Compared to the real world prices 

in 1992, fuelwood was $13 lower, industrial roundwood was 

$43 lower, and sawnwood was $10 lower in 2006.

Projected evolution of solid wood prices

Scenario A1B—Scenario A1B implies a very high increase 

in fuelwood demand. Under scenario A1B, the price of 

fuelwood more than doubles. The price of fuelwood rises 

rapidly and approaches the price of industrial roundwood 

by 2030. The real world price of industrial roundwood rises 

little until 2030, but thereafter, the prices of fuelwood and 

industrial roundwood increase in concert and reach $256/m3

by 2060. The price of sawnwood follows the trend of the price 

of industrial roundwood, hardly changing between 2006 and 

2030 and then sharply rising to reach $392/m3 in 2060, for an 

overall rise of 72 percent above its 2006 level.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the prices of fuelwood 

and industrial roundwood rise much less than under scenario 

A1B. The two prices converge 10 years later than under 

scenario A1B and reach $118/m3 in 2060. The real price of 

sawnwood declines until 2035 and then rises slightly to reach 

$250/m3 in 2060.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the future real prices of 

fuelwood, industrial roundwood, and sawnwood are very 

similar to those under scenario A2, except for a slightly 

earlier convergence of the prices of fuelwood and industrial 

roundwood.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, prices of solid wood products are the lowest among 

all the scenarios. Even though the fuelwood price rises faster 

than the price of industrial roundwood, convergence of the 

two prices occurs only towards 2050. Compared to 2006, in 
11

2060 the world price of fuelwood is $24 higher, but the world 

price of industrial roundwood is $9 lower, and the world price 

of sawnwood is $50 lower. 

Fuelwood 

Fuelwood consumption

Figure 5 shows the historic and projected data for fuelwood 

consumption (production plus imports minus exports), 

including industrial roundwood that is used for energy, and 

table 12 shows the corresponding data for major countries in 

each region. 

Observed evolution of fuelwood consumption

Between 1992 and 2006, the annual consumption of fuelwood 

increased by 243 million m3 in developing countries but declined 

by 10 million in developed countries. The largest regional 

increases were in Africa (208 million m3 spread over many 

countries) and Europe (39 million m3, the growth in France, 

Germany, and other countries compensating in part for the 

18 million m3 decline in the annual consumption of the Russian 

Federation). In South America, annual fuelwood consumption 

increased by 26 million m3, of which more than half was in 

Brazil. In Asia, the increase of consumption in India and China 

was offset by a decrease of 45 million m3 in Indonesia, resulting 

in no net change at the regional level. In North/Central America, 

annual fuelwood consumption decreased by 40 million m3, 

mostly due to the decrease in the United States.

Projected evolution of fuelwood consumption

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world annual 

consumption of fuelwood increases by 8 billion m3 (i.e., at 

more than five times the average annual growth observed 

between 1992 and 2006). Almost half of this world increase 

of consumption occurs in Asia (850 million m3 in China, 

721 million m3 in India, and 351 million m3 in Japan). In 

Europe, consumption grows by 1.4 billion m3 from 2006 to 

2060, with especially strong growth in France, Germany, the 

Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom. The 

1.6 billion m3 increase of annual consumption in North 

America is due mostly to growth in the United States 

(+1.2 billion m3). In South America, consumption grows more 

modestly (+481 million m3, with 184 million m3 in Brazil).

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the world annual fuelwood 

consumption increases by less than half than that under A1B, 

by 3 billion m3. In contrast to scenario A1B, under scenario 

A2, two-thirds of this growth is in developed countries. 

Annual consumption grows the most in North America 

(+1.2 billion m3, mostly in the United States), Asia (+936 

million m3, with 285 million m3 in Japan and 117 million m3

in China), and Europe (+800 million m3, with strong growth in 

France and Germany). In South America, annual consumption 

increases by 152 million m3, largely in Argentina and Brazil. 

In Oceania, fuelwood consumption grows somewhat less than 

under scenario A1B. Africa is the only region where fuelwood 

consumption decreases.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world annual fuelwood 

consumption rises somewhat more than under scenario A2 

but much less than under scenario A1B. As under scenario 

A2, about two-thirds of the growth is in developed countries. 

The main difference between scenarios B2 and A2 is the 

projection under scenario B2 of almost double the growth 

of consumption in Asia. Between 2006 and 2060, annual 

fuelwood consumption increases by 473 million m3 in China 

and 232 million m3 in India. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the increase in world fuelwood consumption 

between 2006 and 2060 is approximately the same as the 

increase observed between 1992 and 2006. The growth 

of consumption in developing countries is triple that in 

developed countries. Annual consumption grows by 

111 million m3 in Asia, with 44 million m3 in India and 

28 million m3 in China. Fuelwood consumption increases by 

66 million m3 in Africa and 38 million m3 in Europe, with 

28 million m3 in the Russian Federation. In North/Central 

America, consumption increases by 19 million m3, mostly due 

to an increase in the United States. Most of the 13 million m3

increase in South America is in Brazil. 

Fuelwood trade

Figure 6 shows the net trade (exports minus imports) of 

fuelwood by major world region, from 1961 to 2060, and table 

13 shows the data for selected years and principal countries 

within each region. 

Observed evolution of fuelwood trade

The main changes in fuelwood trade between 1992 and 2006 

were increases in exports from Europe and North/Central 

America and a corresponding increase in imports in Asia. 

Projected evolution of fuelwood trade

Under all scenarios, Asia is the main region of net imports, 

while South America and Europe are regions with net exports. 

However, the magnitude of the trade differed greatly among 

scenarios, from scenario A1B with the largest net trade to 

scenario to A1B-Low Fuelwood with the lowest, and B2 and 

A2 in between (fig. 6). 

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the annual net exports 

of fuelwood from developed to developing countries increases 

by 819 million m3 (table 13). More than 2 billion m3 of the 

increase originates in South America, with nearly all of the 

increase coming from Brazil. Europe increases annual net 
12

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%





















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG





















 

5HDOP86

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR%





















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG



















5HDOP86

Figure 4—World prices of fuelwood, industrial roundwood, and sawnwood, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.

(continued on next page)

 

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR$





















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG







Solid wood prices, scenario A1B

Solid wood prices, scenario A2
13

 

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR$





















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG

 

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG

















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG

Figure 4 (continued)—World prices of fuelwood, industrial roundwood, and sawnwood, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG





 

6ROLGZRRGSULFHVVFHQDULR%





















          

<HDU

5HDOP86

)XHOZRRG ,QG5RXQG 6DZQZRRG



















5HDOP86

Solid wood prices, scenario B2

Solid wood prices, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
14

)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH























7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 5—Fuelwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG







Fuelwood consumption, scenario A1B

Fuelwood consumption, scenario A2
15



)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 5 (continued)—Fuelwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







          

<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







)XHOZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Fuelwood consumption, scenario B2

Fuelwood consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
16

)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 6—Fuelwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Fuelwood net trade, scenario A1B

Fuelwood net trade, scenario A2
17



)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 6 (continued)—Fuelwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







7

)XHOZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Fuelwood net trade, scenario B2

Fuelwood net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
18

exports by 801 million m3, mostly from the Russian Federation. 

North/Central America increases its annual net exports by 

222 million m3, with a 372 million m3 increase in net 

exports emerging from Canada, which is partially offset by 

125 million m3 more net imports by Mexico. Asia is the main 

negative change of net trade, with India increasing its annual 

net imports by 929 million m3 and China by 694 million m3.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the net trade of developed 

countries falls by 151 million m3, an event that turns 

developed countries from net exporters into net importers. 

The largest regional negative change in annual net trade is in 

Asia (-837 million m3, principally in Japan and India). The net 

trade of North/Central America also falls (-44 million m3,

with -55 million m3 in Mexico and -29 million m3 in the 

United States offset by a 35 million m3 increase in Canada). 

The other regions experience an increase in annual net trade, 

mostly from South America (+576 million m3, with 449 

million m3 from Brazil and 108 million m3 from Chile). In 

Europe, annual net trade increases by 165 million m3, mostly 

from the Russian Federation. Africa increases its annual net 

trade of fuelwood by 138 million m3, despite decreases in 

Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, as in scenario A1B but 

in contrast to scenario A2, the annual net trade of fuelwood 

increases in developed countries and decreases in developing 

countries by 320 million m3. The direction of changes in net trade 

is similar to that of scenario A1B but different in magnitudes. 

The increase in deficit of Asia is about half that of scenario 

A1B, and still occurs in China, India, Japan, and Indonesia. The 

annual net trade increases in all other regions: by 854 million 

m3 in South America (mostly Brazil and Chile), 447 million m3

in Europe (with 203 million m3 in the Russian Federation), and 

192 million m3 in Africa. In North/Central America, annual net 

trade increases by 77 million m3, with a 93 million m3 increase 

in Canada more than compensating for a projected decrease of 

31 million m3 in the United States. In Oceania, annual net trade 

increases by 25 million m3, mostly from Australia. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the annual net trade of fuelwood decreases in 

developing countries and increases in developed countries, as in 

B2 but by a lesser amount. Asia and Africa were the two regions 

with negative changes of net trade. India is the country with the 

main negative change (-182 million m3). Net trade decreases 

also in Nigeria (by 62 million m3), and China’s net trade is 

unchanged. The largest regional positive changes of annual net 

trade are in South America (+297 million m3, with 213 million 

m3 in Brazil) and Europe (+243 million m3, spread over several 

countries, including the Russian Federation and France). 

Industrial Roundwood 

Industrial roundwood consumption

Figure 7 shows the data of past and projected industrial 

roundwood consumption (production plus imports minus 

exports), except energy wood, between 1961 and 2060 in 

world regions.3 Table 14 shows the same data for selected 

years and countries.

Projected evolution of industrial roundwood consumption

Under all four scenarios, the world annual industrial 

roundwood consumption decreases—especially under 

scenarios A2 and B2, less so under scenario A1B, and least 

so under scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood. There are substantial 

differences between scenarios, with scenario A1B aligning 

closest to A1B-Low Fuelwood, and scenario A2 with B2.

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world annual 

consumption of industrial roundwood decreases by 341 million 

m3, despite a modest increase of 16 million m3 in developing 

countries. The largest decreases of consumption are in North/

Central America (-245 million m3, with -167 million m3 in the 

United States), and Europe (-109 million m3, with 

-44 million m3 in the Russian Federation and -30 million m3

in Finland). Annual consumption also decreases in South 

America (-67 million m3, with -41 million m3 in Brazil and 

-21 million m3 in Chile), Africa (-17 million m3), and Oceania 

(-6 million m3). The annual consumption of industrial 

roundwood only increases in Asia (+103 million m3 by 2060, 

with +63 million m3 in China and +12 million m3 in Japan). 

In other regions, the decrease of industrial roundwood 

consumption is due mainly to the decrease of wood pulp 

in paper and paperboard manufacture, with its fiber needs 

provided by increased use of waste paper. Other causes 

include the increasing use of industrial roundwood for energy 

and, to a lesser extent, improvements in technology that 

decrease the amount of wood use in sawnwood, panels, and 

pulp production.

Scenario A2—Among all the scenarios, scenario A2 

implies the largest decrease in world industrial roundwood 

consumption (-504 million m3, with -455 million m3 in 

developed countries). As in scenario A1B, the largest 

decline is in North/Central America (-390 million m3, with 

-345 million m3 in the United States and -49 million m3 in 

Canada). The decrease of annual consumption in Europe is 

more modest than under scenario A1B (the projected decrease 

under scenario A2 is -43 million m3, with -45 million in the 

Russian Federation and -23 million m3 in Finland). Annual 

consumption also decreases in Oceania (-14 million m3) and

3 The large drop of consumption in Europe from 1990 to 1991 reflects the 

collapse of the former USSR and corresponding data changes. Beginning in 

1991, Europe includes the data for the Russian Federation only.
19

Africa (-13 million m3). Annual consumption increases only in 

Asia, by a modest 18 million m3 due to an increase of 

24 million m3 in China that is partly offset by decreases of 14 

and 9 million m3 in Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively.

Scenario B2—Projections under scenario B2 are similar 

to projections under scenario A2, with somewhat lower 

decreases of annual industrial roundwood consumption 

in developed and developing countries. The decrease of 

consumption in North/Central America is lower than under 

scenario A2 but the projected decrease in Europe is about 

double that under A2. On the other hand, the increase of 

annual consumption in Asia is about double the increase under 

scenario A2, due in part to a 34 million m3 increase of annual 

consumption in China. The projections for Africa and Oceania 

are similar to those under scenario A2.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the decrease of world annual industrial roundwood 

consumption is less than half the decrease under scenario 

A1B. Annual consumption decreases by 245 million m3

in developed countries and increases by 93 million m3 in 

developing countries. As under the other scenarios, Asia is the 

only region with an increase (+142 million m3, with 92 million 

m3 in China, 11 million m3 in India, and 10 million m3 in 

Japan). The largest regional decrease of annual consumption 

is in North/Central America (-158 million m3, with -87 million 

m3 in the United States and -77 million m3 in Canada). The 

annual consumption in Europe decreases by 74 million m3, 

mostly in the Russian Federation (-39 million m3), Finland 

(-23 million m3), and Sweden (-18 million m3). Consumption 

decreases in Oceania and Africa by 11 and 3 million m3, 

respectively. 

Industrial roundwood trade

Figure 8 shows the annual net trade (exports minus imports) 

of total industrial roundwood between 1961 and 2060 by 

world region. Table 15 shows the same data for selected years 

and countries. The GFPM projections between 2007 and 2060 

may include energy wood after the prices of fuelwood and 

industrial roundwood converge (fig. 4).

Observed evolution of industrial roundwood trade

A major change occurred between 1992 and 2006 as 

developed countries went from net importers to net exporters, 

increasing their annual net trade of industrial roundwood 

by 38 million m3, while developing countries went from net 

exporters to net importers. Net trade in Europe increased by 

32 million m3, with +40 million m3 in the Russian Federation. 

Meanwhile, the largest decrease in net trade was in Asia 

(-13 million m3, with -25 million m3 in China) and North/

Central America (-17 million m3, mostly in the United States).

Projected evolution of industrial roundwood trade

Under scenario A1B, the annual net trade of developed 

countries increases by 176 million m3. The primary growth 

in annual net trade is in Europe (+195 million m3, principally 

from Finland, Sweden, and Austria, but with a decrease of 

48 million m3 in the Russian Federation). An almost 

symmetric growth of imports occurs in Asia, where annual 

net trade declines by 182 million m3. Net trade also decreases 

in Africa (-18 million m3) and Oceania (-9 million m3), but 

increases by in North/Central America (+2 million m3).

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the annual net trade of 

developed countries increases by about one-fourth of the 

increase projected under scenario A1B. The largest growths 

of net trade are in South America (+87 million m3, mostly 

from Brazil and Chile) and Europe (+58 million m3, with 

43 million m3 from the Russian Federation). As under 

scenario A1B, the decrease in annual net trade is in Asia 

(-103 million m3, of which 66 million m3 in China and 

15 million m3 in India), but net trade also decreases in North/

Central America (-16 million m3, mostly in Mexico and the 

United States), Africa (-18 million m3), and Oceania 

(-10 million m3).

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the change in annual net 

trade of developed and developing countries falls between 

the changes projected under scenarios A1B and A2, with 

trade rising by 114 million m3 for developed countries. As 

under scenario A1B, the largest positive change is in Europe 

(+133 million m3, with 35 million m3 in Sweden and 

30 million m3 equally in Finland and the Russian 

Federation). A symmetric change occurs in Asia, where 

annual net trade decreases by 131 million m3, with 76 

million m3 in China and 21 million m3 in India. Annual net 

trade also decreases in Africa by 23 million m3, Oceania by 

10 million m3, and North/Central America by 8 million m3

(with 6 million m3 in the United States).

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Among all the scenarios, 

scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood projects the largest positive 

change of annual net trade for developed countries with an 

increase of 179 million m3 between 2006 and 2030. The 

corresponding decline in developing countries centered in 

Asia, where net trade declined by 196 million m3 with 

134 million m3 in China and 28 million m3 in India. Net trade 

also decreases in Africa and Oceania, by 29 and 10 million 

m3, respectively. These declines are matched by the increase 

in annual net trade principally in North/Central America 

(93 million m3, with 96 million m3 in the United States), 

Europe (76 million m3, with 20 million m3 in Finland), and 

South America (63 million m3, with 39 million m3 in Brazil 

and 28 million m3 in Chile).
20

,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

,QGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH 6HULHV















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 7—Industrial roundwood consumption (except energy wood) by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.

(continued on next page)



,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Industrial roundwood consumption except energy wood, scenario A1B

Industrial roundwood consumption except energy wood, scenario A2
21



,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



HV

,QGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 7 (continued)—Industrial roundwood consumption (except energy wood) by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest 

Products Model.





          

<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



,QGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQH[FHSWHQHUJ\ZRRGVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH 6HULHV















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Industrial roundwood consumption except energy wood, scenario B2

Industrial roundwood consumption except energy wood, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
22

7RWDOLQGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

7RWDOLQGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 8—Total industrial roundwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



7RWDOLQGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

7RWDOLQGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%	ORZIXHOZRRGGHPDQG





Total industrial roundwood net trade, scenario A1B

Total industrial roundwood net trade, scenario A2
23



7RWDOLQGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



7RWDOLQGXVWULDOURXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%	ORZIXHOZRRGGHPDQG















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 8 (continued)—Total industrial roundwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





7

7RWDOLQGXVWULDO5RXQGZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Total industrial roundwood net trade, scenario B2

Total industrial roundwood net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
24

Sawnwood 

Sawnwood consumption

Figure 9 shows the past and projected annual sawnwood 

consumption in world regions between 1961 and 2060. Table 

16 shows the same data for selected years and countries. 

Observed evolution of sawnwood consumption

The world annual consumption of sawnwood increased by 

31 million m3 between 1992 and 2006, with 22 million m3 of 

the increase taking place in developing countries and 9 million 

m3 in developed countries. The largest regional increase was 

in North/Central America (41 million m3, with 27 million m3

in the United States). Annual consumption also increased in 

South America and Africa by 7 and 2 million m3, respectively. 

The largest regional decrease in annual consumption was in 

Europe (-15 million m3, with -41 million m3 in the Russian 

Federation, but offset by small increases in other countries). 

Annual consumption also decreased in Asia by 6 million 

m3, the cumulative result of an increase of 11 million m3 in 

China offset by a decrease of 16 million m3 in Japan and other 

smaller decreases in other countries.

Projected consumption of sawnwood

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world annual 

consumption of sawnwood increases by 53 million m3, mostly 

in developing countries. The largest growth is in Asia (+33 

million m3, with 10 million m3 in India and 8 million m3 in 

China). Annual consumption grows by 7 million m3 in South 

America, with 5 million m3 in Brazil, and by the same amount 

in Africa. In North/Central America, annual sawnwood 

consumption grows by 3 million m3, with two-thirds of the 

projected increase taking place in the United States. The 

regional change is less in Europe (+2 million m3, with +4 

million m3 in the Russian Federation and small declines in 

several other countries).

Scenario A2—Scenario A2 implies the smallest world 

increase of annual sawnwood consumption: 12 million m3, the 

cumulative result of a 17 million m3 increase in developing 

countries offset by a 5 million decrease in developed 

countries. The main decline is in Europe (-6 million m3

originating in several countries, a decline that offsets a 

2 million m3 increase in the Russian Federation). Under 

scenario A2, Asia has an increase in annual consumption 

of 11 million m3, with a 4 million m3 increase in India. 

Consumption also increases in Africa by 3 million m3, North/

Central America by 2 million m3 (mostly in the United States), 

and South America and Oceania by 1 million m3 each. 

Scenario B2—In scenario B2, the growth of the world 

sawnwood annual consumption falls between the growth 

projected in scenarios A1B and A2. As under A2, consumption 

increases in developing countries and decreases in developed 

countries, but to a greater degree. There is a world increase of 

20 million m3 in annual consumption that matches the increase 

in Asia, where the increase includes increases in India and 

China of 7 and 3 million m3, respectively. Consumption also 

increases in Africa and South America, by 7 and 4 million 

m3, respectively. However, annual consumption decreases in 

North/Central America by 6 million m3, mostly in the United 

States, and Europe (-4 million m3 with decreases in several 

countries not compensated by the 3 million m3 increase in the 

Russian Federation).

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—The scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood induces the highest world growth in annual 

sawnwood consumption: +95 million m3, with +63 million m3

in developing countries. As there is little competition 

between energy wood and logs for sawnwood under this 

scenario, the price of wood is lower than under scenario 

A1B, and this leads to cheaper sawnwood and more 

consumption in all regions. As under all the other scenarios, 

the largest growth is in Asia (+43 million m3, with 11 million 

m3 in China and 12 million m3 in India). In North/Central 

America, annual consumption grows by 20 million m3, 

with 16 million m3 in the United States. In Europe, annual 

consumption increases by 12 million m3, with 4 million m3

in the Russian Federation. Consumption grows almost as 

much in South America (+10 million m3, with 7 million m3

in Brazil) and Africa (+9 million m3). 

Sawnwood trade

Figure 10 shows the historical data of annual sawnwood net 

trade (exports minus imports) by world region, and table 17 

shows the data for selected years and countries.

Observed evolution of sawnwood trade

Between 1992 and 2006, the net trade of developed countries 

increased by 18 million m3. Most of this increase took place 

in Europe where net trade increased by 26 million m3, 

including increases of 10 million m3 in the Russian 

Federation and 8 million m3 in Germany. North/Central 

America passed from a surplus to a deficit region, with a 

decline in net trade of 14 million m3 due largely to the 

19 million m3 decrease in the United States. Asia increased 

its annual deficit by 12 million m3, with 5 million m3 in 

China and 4 million m3 in Malaysia. 

Projected evolution of sawnwood trade

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, there is a 3 million m3

reduction in the annual net trade of developed countries. The 

annual deficit of Asia decreases by 15 million m3, with 

6 million m3 in China and 8 million m3 in Japan. Meanwhile, 

the annual deficit worsens in North/Central America by 

9 million m3 due to a 34 million decrease in the surplus of 
25

Canada that is only partly offset by a 28 million m3 decrease 

in the annual deficit of the United States. The positive annual 

net trade of Europe decreases by 4 million m3 due to a 

15 million m3 reduction in the Russian Federation surplus 

that is offset only in part by an increase of 11 million 

in Sweden’s surplus. The annual trade deficit of Africa 

decreases by 3 million m3, while the surplus of Oceania 

decreases by 1 million m3.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the annual net trade 

of sawnwood decreases by 20 million m3 in developed 

countries, traceable largely to the worsening trade deficit of 

North/Central America by 97 million m3, including a 

25 million m3 reduction of the annual trade surplus of 

Canada, and a worsening of the United States annual 

deficit by 76 million m3. This regional deficit is met by 

improvements of the trade balance in all other regions, 

mostly in Europe, where annual net trade would increase by 

73 million m3, with 72 million m3 in Sweden but declines in 

some other countries. The annual net trade also improves in 

Asia by 16 million m3, with 8 million m3 in Japan and 

6 million m3 in China, and in Africa by 9 million m3. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, there is a reduction in the 

annual net trade of developed countries by 4 million m3, 

coming largely from a 32 million decrease in the net trade 

of North/Central America that stems from a 35 million 

reduction in the annual surplus of Canada, and despite a 

6 million m3 decrease in the United States’ deficit. The 

annual surplus of Europe increases by 18 million m3, largely 

from the 41 million m3 increase in Sweden’s annual surplus, 

and despite the 15 million m3 reduction in the surplus of the 

Russian Federation. The annual sawnwood trade deficit of 

Africa is reduced by 4 million m3, while the annual surplus 

of Oceania is reduced by 1 million m3.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the development of net trade is similar to that 

under scenario A1B but with an improvement of the net 

trade of developing countries, where the deficit is reduced 

by 6 million m3. As under scenario A1B, the main regional 

gains of annual net trade occur in Asia (+13 million m3, 

with 8 million m3 in Japan and 5 million m3 in China). Also 

as under scenario A1B, the annual trade surplus of Europe 

decreases by 15 million m3, stemming from the Russian 

Federation, Finland, and Austria. The annual trade surplus 

decreases also in South America, by 5 million m3, with 3 

million m3 in both Brazil and Chile. As under scenarios 

A2 and B2, Africa goes from deficit in 2006 to surplus in 

2060, improving net trade by 6 million m3, while the annual 

surplus of Oceania is reduced by 1 million m3. 

Wood-Based Panels 

Wood-based panels prices

Figure 11 shows the past and projected world real prices of 

veneer and plywood, particleboard, and fiberboard, measured 

by the unit value of exports expressed in 1997 U.S. dollars. 

Tables 18, 19, and 20 show the corresponding prices in the 

major countries within each world region. 

Observed evolution of wood-based panels prices

From 1961 to 2006, the real prices of wood-based panels 

fluctuated considerably, especially for veneer and plywood, 

with peaks around 1980. The general tendency was of 

decreasing real prices. In 2006, the real world price of veneer 

and plywood was $49 lower than it had been in 1992, and $18 

lower for particleboard and $38 lower for fiberboard.

Projected evolution of wood-based panels prices

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the prices of wood 

based panels remain approximately constant in real terms up to 

2030. Then they increase rapidly and reach nearly $600/m3 for 

plywood, $400/m3 for particleboard, and $480/m3 for fiberboard. 

Scenarios A2 and B2—Under scenarios A2 and B2, there 

is a slight decrease in prices of wood-based panels until 

2030, followed by a rise that brings the prices in 2060 to 

approximately their level of 2006. There is also a convergence 

of the prices of fiberboard and particleboard towards the end 

of the projection period.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the prices of veneer and plywood, particleboard, 

and fiberboard continue their historic negative and parallel 

trend to end lower in 2060 than in 2006. 

Wood-based panels consumption

Figure 12 shows the past and projected annual wood-based 

panel consumption in world regions, from 1961 to 2060. 

Tables 21, 22, and 23 show the same data for selected years 

and countries and for each component, veneer and plywood, 

particleboard, and fiberboard. 

Observed wood-based panels consumption

The world annual consumption of wood-based panels 

increased by 121 million m3 between 1992 and 2006, three 

times as much as for sawnwood. Consumption grew in 

all world regions, and more in developing than developed 

countries. The largest regional increase was in Asia 

(59 million m3, with 46 million m3 in China). Annual 

consumption increased by 28 million m3 in Europe, spread 

out in several countries. It grew nearly as much in North/

Central America (27 million m3, with 23 million m3 in the 

United States). A large part of the 5 million m3 growth of 
26

6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH











7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 9—Sawnwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





V

Sawnwood consumption, scenario A1B

Sawnwood consumption, scenario A2
27



6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 9 (continued)—Sawnwood consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





6DZQZRRGFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH











7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Sawnwood consumption, scenario B2

Sawnwood consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
28

6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 10—Sawnwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG







Sawnwood net trade, scenario A1B

Sawnwood net trade, scenario A2
29



6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 10 (continued) —Sawnwood net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







7

6DZQZRRGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Sawnwood net trade, scenario B2

Sawnwood net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
30

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVSULFHVVFHQDULR$%























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

























5HDOP86

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVSULFHVVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

























5HDOP86

Figure 11—World prices of wood-based panels, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)

 

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVZRUOGSULFHVVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG









Wood-based panels prices, scenario A1B

Wood-based panels prices, scenario A2
31

 

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVZRUOGSULFHVVFHQDULR$























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

 

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

Figure 11 (continued)—World prices of wood-based panels, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G







:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVSULFHVVFHQDULR%























          

<HDU

5HDOP86

9HQHHU3O\ZRRG 3DUWLFOH%G )LEHU%G

























5HDOP86

Wood-based panels prices, scenario B2

Wood-based panels prices, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
32

:RRGEDVHG3DQHOVFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH











7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 12—Wood-based panels consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Wood-based panels consumption, scenario A1B

Wood-based panels consumption, scenario A2
33



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 12 (continued) —Wood-based panels consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%













          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH













7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Wood-based panels consumption, scenario B2

Wood-based panels consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
34

annual consumption in South America took part in Brazil. 

Consumption also increased by about 1 million m3 in Africa 

and Oceania.

Projected evolution of wood-based panels consumption

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world annual 

consumption of wood-based panels increases by 98 million m3. 

Eighty percent of this growth takes place in developing 

countries. The largest growths are in Asia (+72 million m3, 

with 51 million m3 in China and Europe (+16 million m3, with 

6 million m3 in the Russian Federation). Annual consumption 

also grows by 6 million m3 in South America, with 4 million 

m3 in Brazil, and 4 million m3 in Africa. Growth in North/

Central America is small (1 million m3), and there was hardly 

any change in Oceania.

Scenario A2—Scenario A2 implies the smallest world 

increase of annual wood-based panels consumption: 42 

million m3, resulting from a 40 million m3 increase in 

developing countries. In contrast to scenario A1B, under 

scenario A2, Asia experiences a modest increase in annual 

consumption (+34 million m3, with a 26 million m3 increase in 

China, in particular). Consumption also increases in Africa by 

2 million m3, North/Central America by 4 million m3 (mostly 

in the United States), and South America. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the growth of the world 

wood-based panels annual consumption falls between the 

growth projected under scenarios A1B and A2. As under 

scenario A2, consumption increases most in developing 

countries, but more than under scenario A2. The world 

increase of 59 million m3 in annual consumption is mostly in 

Asia, which includes increases of 2 million m3 in India and 

35 million m3 in China. Consumption increases in Africa by 

3 million m3 and South America by 4 million m3. However, 

annual consumption decreases in North/Central America by 

5 million m3, mostly in the United States, and Europe 

stagnates as in scenario A2.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood 

induces the highest world growth in annual wood-based 

panels consumption: +180 million m3, with +120 million m3 in 

developing countries. Consumption grows in all regions due 

to the lower panel prices (fig. 11) induced by the lower price of 

wood due to little diversion of industrial roundwood for energy. 

As under the other scenarios, the largest growth is in Asia 

(+106 million m3, with 74 million m3 in China and 4 million m3

in India). In North/Central America, annual consumption grows 

by 23 million m3, with 20 million m3 in the United States. In 

Europe, annual consumption increases by 35 million m3, with 

10 million m3 in the Russian Federation. Consumption also 

grows in South America (+10 million m3 from 2006 to 2060, 

with 7 million m3 in Brazil) and Africa (+9 million m3). 

Wood-based panels trade

Figure 13 shows the historical annual net trade of wood-based 

panels (exports minus imports) from 1961 to 2006, and the 

GFPM projections from 2006 to 2060, by world region. More 

detailed data for selected years, countries, and component 

products (veneer and plywood, particleboard, and fiberboard) 

are in tables 24, 25, and 26.

Observed wood-based panels trade

From 1992 to 2006, developing countries were net exporters 

of wood-based panels, and their net trade increased by 

9 million m3. Annual trade grew by 4 million m3 in Asia 

(+11 million m3 in China, partly offset by -7 million m3 in 

Indonesia and -2 million m3 in Japan). The South American 

annual net trade grew by 4 million m3, with 3 million m3 in 

Brazil. In Europe, annual net trade also grew by 8 million m3, 

with 5 million m3 in Germany and 2 million m3 in France. 

Most of the decrease in annual net trade was in North/Central 

America (-11 million m3, with -17 million m3 in the United 

States offset in part by +7 million m3 in Canada).

Projected wood-based panels trade

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the developing 

countries turn from net exporters into net importers, their 

annual net trade decreasing by 18 million m3. The largest 

decrease is in Asia, which goes from net exporter in 2006 to 

net importer in 2060. In total, the Asian net trade decreases by 

12 million m3, with 7 million m3 in China and 6 million m3 in 

Malaysia, and partly offset by an increase of 7 million m3 in 

Japan and the Republic of Korea. Annual net trade decreases 

in South America (-2 million m3), Europe (-1 million m3, with 

small unequal changes in various countries), and Oceania 

(-1 million m3). The change in North/Central America is 

almost the opposite of the change in Asia, as the region 

transitions from net importer to net exporter, with an increase 

in the Canadian annual surplus of 9 million m3 and a decrease 

of the United States’ deficit by 6 million m3. 

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, there is little change in the 

trade balance of developed countries and developing countries 

as a whole, but there are large changes within regions and 

countries. In particular, the annual trade deficit of North/

Central America worsens by 20 million m3, due to a 

48 million m3 increase in the deficit of the United States, offset 

only in part by the 27 million m3 increase in the surplus of 

Canada. The trade surplus of Asia becomes a deficit with a net 

trade change of -12 million m3, with -7 million m3 in China 

and -6 million m3 in Malaysia, compensated only in part 

by a 4 million m3 and a 2 million m3 reduction of the trade 

deficit in Japan and the Republic of Korea, respectively. These 

changes are matched by increases in the surplus of Europe 

(+17 million m3, spread over several countries) and South 

America (+12 million m3, mostly in Brazil). 
35

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the annual surplus in 

wood-panel trade of developing countries decreases by 

8 million m3. This is due in large part to the passage of Asia 

from net exporter to net importer, with a reduction in net 

trade of 12 million m3, distributed in the same amounts as 

under scenario A2 between China, Malaysia, Japan, and 

the Republic of Korea. But the annual trade deficit of North 

America is much less than under scenario A2 (-5 million m3, 

with a 29 million m3 increase of the trade deficit of the United 

States matched in part by an improvement in the Canadian 

surplus of 24 million m3). Net exports increase less than under 

A2 in South America (+8 million m3, of which 7 million m3

in Brazil) and Europe (+7 million m3, distributed in several 

countries). As under scenario A2, the trade surplus of Oceania 

is reduced by 1 million m3 while the trade deficit of Africa is 

reduced by the same amount. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the changes of net trade resemble those under 

scenario A1B for the developed and developing countries as 

a whole, but are more pronounced by region and country. In 

particular, the net trade of Asia decreases by 21 million m3, as 

the region changes from exporter to major importer, with the 

trade surplus of China, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreasing 

by 7 million m3, 6 million m3, and 3 million m3, respectively. 

This worsening of the trade balance of Asia is matched by 

a 21 million m3 improvement in the annual trade of North/

Central America, where the annual deficit of the United States 

decreases by 19 million m3 and the surplus of Canada increases 

by 3 million m3. The trade balance would also improve in 

South America (+5 million m3, due in part to a 6 million m3

increase in Brazilian annual net exports). In contrast, the trade 

balance of Europe worsens by 8 million m3, changing the 

region from net exporter to net importer, with a decrease of 

5 million m3 in net exports from Germany and France.

Wood Pulp and Other Fibers 

Fiber prices

Figure 14 shows past and projected values of the world real 

prices of mechanical pulp, chemical and semi-chemical pulp, 

other fiber pulp, and waste paper measured by the unit value 

of exports expressed in 1997 U.S. dollars. Tables 27, 28, 29, 

and 30 show the same data for selected years and countries. 

Observed evolution of the prices of wood pulp 

and other fibers

There was a slight negative trend in real prices of the three 

wood pulp grades and of waste paper from 1961 to 2006, and 

a positive trend for the price of other fibers, with strong annual 

fluctuations around this trend. For these four papermaking 

fibers, the world price was somewhat lower in 2006 than it had 

been in 1992.

Projected evolution of the prices of wood pulp 

and other fibers

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world prices of 

mechanical and chemical wood pulp increase by about $300/mt, 

 and the prices of waste paper by $130/mt. The price of other 

fiber pulp decreases by $60/mt.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2 the price of mechanical 

pulp increases by about $20/mt and the price of chemical pulp 

by $60/mt from 2006 to 2060. The price of waste paper also 

increases by $34/mt while it decreases by $240/mt for other 

fiber pulp. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world prices trends are 

similar to those of scenario A2 (fig. 14), with a slightly higher 

price increase for wood pulps and waste paper, and a lower 

decrease for other fiber pulp.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood leads to prices in 2060 that are about $80/mt, $50/mt, 

and $170/mt lower than in 2006 for mechanical pulp, chemical 

pulp, and other fiber pulp, respectively. However, the price of 

waste paper is $140/ton higher in 2060 than in 2006. 

Wood pulp consumption

Figure 15 shows the data on wood pulp consumption (mechanical 

and chemical pulp) from 1961 to 2006 and projections for world 

regions, according to the four scenarios. More detailed data for 

selected years and countries, and separated by mechanical and 

chemical pulp, are in tables 31 and 32.

Observed evolution of wood pulp consumption

From 1992 to 2006, the world annual consumption of wood 

pulp increased by 25 million mt, of which 16 million mt were in 

developing countries. World consumption increased or remained 

stable in all regions, except in North America where it decreased 

by 5 million mt, due mostly to the decrease of 6 million mt in 

the United States. Wood pulp consumption increased in Europe 

(+16 million mt, of which +4 million mt occurred in Finland and 

+2 million mt each in Sweden and Germany). In Asia, annual 

consumption increased by 12 million mt, mostly in China 

(+7 million mt), and Indonesia and the Republic of Korea 

(+2 million mt each). Annual consumption also increased in 

South America by 2 million mt, mostly in Brazil.

Projected evolution of wood pulp consumption

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world annual wood 

pulp consumption increases by 12 million mt, rising by 

41 million mt in developing countries while it declines by 

29 million mt in developed countries. Much of this decrease is 

in North/Central America where it accelerates after 2030, with 

the United States annual consumption ending 23 million mt 

lower in 2060 than in 2006. Annual wood pulp consumption 
36

:RRGEDVHG3DQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Figure 13—Wood-based panels net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Wood-based panels net trade, scenario A1B

Wood-based panels net trade, scenario A2
37



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 13 (continued)—Wood-based panels net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







7

:RRGEDVHGSDQHOVQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGFXELFPHWHUV

Wood-based panels net trade, scenario B2

Wood-based panels net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
38

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

















 

5HDOW86

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

















 

5HDOW86

Figure 14—World prices of papermaking fibers, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)

 

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Fiber prices, scenario A1B

Fiber prices, scenario A2
39

 

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR$

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

 

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

Figure 14 (continued)—World prices of papermaking fibers, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. 





          

<HDU

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU





 

)LEHUSULFHVVFHQDULR%

















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

0HFK3XOS &KHP3XOS 2WKHU3XOS :DVWH3DSHU

















 

5HDOW86

Fiber prices, scenario B2

Fiber prices, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
40

:RRG3XOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Figure 15—Wood pulp consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Wood pulp consumption, scenario A1B

Wood pulp consumption, scenario A2
41



:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 15 (continued)—Wood pulp consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







:RRGSXOSFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Wood pulp consumption, scenario B2

Wood pulp consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
42

also decreases in Europe by 4 million mt, with -6 million mt 

in Finland and -8 million mt in Sweden. Meanwhile, annual 

wood pulp consumption increases by 37 million mt in Asia, 

with 24 million mt in China and 3 million mt in India. 

Scenario A2—Scenario A2 implies a decrease in world 

wood pulp consumption of 27 million mt, with -44 million mt 

in developed countries. The main decrease is in North/

Central America (-29 million mt, with -24 million mt in 

the United States and -5 million mt in Canada). Annual 

consumption also decreases in Europe by 13 million mt, 

including -8 million mt in Sweden and -7 million mt 

in Finland. The largest increase in annual wood pulp 

consumption is in Asia (+16 million mt from 2006 to 2060, 

with +14 million mt in China).

Scenario B2—The projections for scenario B2 are similar to 

A2, with small differences by region and country.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the annual world consumption of wood pulp 

increases the most, compared to the other three scenarios, 

by 29 million mt, with a 35 million increase in developing 

countries and a 6 million mt decrease in developed countries. 

As was the case under the other scenarios, most of the 

growth is in Asia, where annual production increases by 

31 million mt (with 18 million mt in China and 3 million mt 

in India). Annual consumption also increases in Europe 

(+7 million mt spread over several countries, and despite 

an 8 million mt decline in Sweden). The decrease in annual 

consumption in North America (-12 million mt due mainly to 

-18 million mt in the United States) is about half of what was 

obtained under the other scenarios. The better performance 

of wood pulp in this scenario than in A1B stems from the 

lower price of wood pulp (fig. 14) due to the lower use of 

industrial roundwood for energy.

Wood pulp net trade

Figure 16 shows the historical data of the net trade of wood 

pulp (mechanical pulp and chemical pulp), from 1961 to 2006, 

and the GFPM projections to 2060, for the world regions, 

according to each scenario. More detailed data for selected 

years and countries, and separated by mechanical pulp and 

chemical pulp, are presented in tables 33 and 34.

Observed evolution of wood pulp net trade

From 1992 to 2006, the annual net trade of developed and 

developing countries decreased by less than half a million mt, 

developed countries remaining net exporters while developing 

countries stayed net importers. The main regional change was 

in South America where annual net exports increased by 

6 million mt, of which +4 million mt occurred in Brazil. 

Europe also improved its net trade by reducing net imports 

by 1 million mt. Symmetrically, the annual deficit of Asia 

increased by 5 million mt, due largely to China increased 

annual net imports by 6 million mt, compensated in part by 

positive net trade changes of 2 million mt in Indonesia. 

Projected evolution of wood pulp net trade

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the annual net exports 

of developed countries increase by 19 million mt, while the net 

imports of developing countries increase by a similar amount. 

The largest regional change is in Asia, where net imports 

increase by 13 million mt, with 11 million mt in China and 

2 million mt each in India and Indonesia, partly compensated 

by decreases of 2 million mt each in Japan and the Republic 

of Korea. This rise in net imports is met by an increase in 

annual net exports in North/Central America (+8 million mt, 

primarily due to +9 million mt in Canada) that compensate for 

the decrease in annual net exports of South America 

(-5 million mt, with 3 million mt in Brazil and 2 million mt 

in Chile). Europe changes from net importer in 2006 to net 

exporter in 2060, with a net trade change of 5 million mt 

stemming from an increase in the surplus of Finland of 

4 million mt and Sweden of 3 million mt. 

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the annual net exports 

of developed countries (net imports of developing countries) 

changes by about half of the change in A1B. As under scenario 

A1B, the main regional change is an increase in the annual 

net imports of Asia (7 million mt due largely to a 5 million mt 

increase in China). As under A1B, annual net exports of South 

America decrease by 5 million mt, from Brazil and Chile. 

These changes are met by increased net exports from North/

Central America (+5 million mt, with +11 million mt 

in Canada and notwithstanding -6 million mt in the United 

States) and Europe (+5 million mt, of which +4 million mt 

occurred in Finland).

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the wood pulp annual net 

exports of developed countries increase by 16 million mt. 

The increase occurs primarily in Europe, which goes from 

net importer to net exporter, adding 8 million mt to net trade, 

with 4 million mt in Finland and 3 million mt in Germany. 

North/Central America also adds 4 million mt to net trade, 

with a 10 million mt increase in Canada’s surplus and despite 

a 5 million mt increase in the U.S. deficit. Annual net exports 

also increase in Oceania by 3 million mt to meet an increase 

of net imports of 11 million mt in Asia, with 8 million mt in 

China and 2 million mt each in India and Indonesia. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood gives the same increase as scenario B2 for the 

changes in net annual exports of developed countries, with 

variations in regional and country effects. The annual exports of 

North/Central America grow more than in the other scenarios 
43

(+13 million mt, due mostly to increases of 8 million mt 

in the United States, which goes from net importer to net 

exporter, and a 4 million mt increase in Canada’s net exports). 

Another positive change of net trade is in Europe (+3 million 

mt due to lower imports in particular in France and Germany). 

On the other hand, Asia increases its annual deficit by 

13 million mt, of which 7 million mt are due to increased net 

imports of China and 2 million mt of India.

Other fiber consumption

In addition to wood pulp, the GFPM projects production, 

consumption, prices, and net trade of waste paper and other 

fiber pulp. The past world consumption of other fiber pulp was 

approximately 5 percent of the world consumption of total 

papermaking fiber, and it is expected to change little until 2060 

(table 35). On the other hand, waste paper constituted 46 percent 

of the world fiber consumption for papermaking in 2006, and 

this share is projected to increase to about 70 percent by 2060, 

a level that seems achievable given 2006 shares of 68 percent 

in the United Kingdom, 61 percent in Germany, 71 percent in 

Spain, and 66 percent in China. This increase is made possible 

by the rise of waste paper recovery rate, the ratio of waste 

paper production to paper and paperboard consumption, which 

reaches 75 percent in Europe and North America, and above 60 

percent in Asia by 2060, with a faster increase in scenario A1B 

due to more rapid economic growth (fig. 17). 

Figure 18 shows the historical data and projections of waste 

paper consumption in the main world regions. Table 36 shows 

the same data for selected years and countries within each 

region. 

Observed evolution of waste paper consumption

From 1992 to 2006, the world annual consumption of waste 

paper increased by 94 million mt, nearly four times the growth 

of wood pulp consumption. More than half of this growth was 

in developing countries. The main regional growth was in 

Asia (+54 million mt, with 42 million mt in China and 

3 million mt in Indonesia), followed by Europe (+21 million 

mt, with +6 million mt in Germany), and in North/Central 

America (+17 million mt, with +13 million mt in the United 

States). Annual consumption also grew by 1 million mt each 

in Africa and Oceania, but by less than one half million ton in 

South America.

Scenario A1B—According to scenario A1B, the world 

consumption of waste paper grows by 330 million mt, with 

184 million mt in developing countries. Most of the regional 

growth is in Asia (+163 million mt, with 91 million mt in 

China, 14 million mt in India, and 11 million mt in Japan). 

Annual consumption grows by 69 million mt in North/Central 

America, with 40 million mt in the United States, 20 million 

mt in Canada, and 7 million mt in Mexico. An almost equal 

growth occurs in Europe (+68 million mt, principally in the 

Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, Finland, Germany, 

and France). Annual consumption grows by 16 million mt in 

South America, with 9 million mt in Brazil and 3 million mt 

in Argentina, and by 11 million mt and 4 million mt in Africa 

and Oceania, respectively.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the world annual 

consumption of waste paper grows by 207 million mt, 

and more in developed countries (+114 million mt) than in 

developing countries. As under scenario A1B, the main 

regional change is in Asia, but smaller (+82 million mt, with 

46 million in China, 6 million mt in India, and 9 million mt 

in Japan). Consumption also grows less in North/Central 

America (+56 million mt, with 36 million mt in the United 

States, 15 million mt in Canada, and 4 million mt in Mexico). 

Consumption grows by 49 million mt in Europe, mostly in 

Germany, Finland, and the United Kingdom; 10 million mt in 

South America (with 6 million mt in Brazil); 6 million mt in 

Africa; and 3 million mt in Oceania (mostly Australia). 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the change of annual 

waste paper consumption, 231 million mt, is slightly higher 

than in scenario A2. The 118 million mt growth in developing 

countries is almost equal to that in developed countries. 

Consumption in Asia grows more than under scenario A2 

(+99 million mt, with 55 million mt in China, 9 million mt in 

India, and 7 million mt in Japan). In North/Central America, 

annual consumption grows by 53 million mt, with 28 million 

mt in the United States, 18 million mt in Canada, and 

5 million mt in Mexico. European consumption also grows by 

53 million mt, principally in Finland, Germany, and the United 

Kingdom. In South America, annual waste paper consumption 

increases by 13 million mt, with 7 million mt in Brazil, while 

it grows by 10 million mt in Africa and 3 million mt 

in Oceania.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood gives the highest increase in the world annual 

consumption of waste paper among the four scenarios, 

348 million mt, with 195 million mt in developed countries. 

The growth in Asia (132 million mt, with 61 million mt in 

China, and 12 million each in India and Japan) is smaller than 

under scenario A1B. Instead, the North/Central American 

annual consumption grows more than under A1B (98 million 

mt, with 52 million mt in the United States, 36 million mt in 

Canada, and 6 million mt in Mexico). Annual consumption 

in Europe also grows more than under A1B (+86 million mt, 

with 17 million mt in Finland, 12 million mt in Germany, and 

9 million mt in the United Kingdom). In Africa and Oceania, 

waste paper annual consumption increases by 11 million mt and 

4 million mt respectively, the same as under scenario A1B. 
44

:RRG3XOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

:RRG3XOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Figure 16—Wood pulp net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:RRGSXOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:RRGSXOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Wood pulp net trade, scenario A1B

Wood pulp net trade, scenario A2
45



:RRGSXOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:RRGSXOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 16 (continued)—Wood pulp net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





7

:RRG3XOSQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Wood pulp net trade, scenario B2

Wood pulp net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
46

:DVWH3DSHU5HFRYHU\5DWHVFHQDULR$%



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



















 

:DVWHSDSHUUHFRYHU\UDWHVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



















 

Figure 17—Waste paper recovery rate by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:DVWH3DSHU5HFRYHU\5DWHVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:DVWH3DSHU5HFRYHU\5DWHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Waste paper recovery rate, scenario A1B

Waste paper recovery rate, scenario A2
47



:DVWH3DSHU5HFRYHU\5DWHVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:DVWH3DSHU5HFRYHU\5DWHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 17 (continued)—Waste paper recovery rate by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH





 

:DVWHSDSHUUHFRYHU\UDWHVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



















 

Waste paper recovery rate, scenario B2

Waste paper recovery rate, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
48

:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Figure 18—Waste paper consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Waste paper consumption, scenario A1B

Waste paper consumption, scenario A2
49

Figure 18 (continued)—Waste paper consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







          

<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR%















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV



:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:DVWHSDSHUFRQVXPSWLRQVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Waste paper consumption, scenario B2

Waste paper consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
50

Other fiber net trade

While the trade of nonwood fiber pulp was quite small and 

is expected to remain so (table 37), the world trade of waste 

paper was 50 percent of the world trade of total papermaking 

fibers in 2006. Figure 19 shows the historical data of the net 

trade of waste paper from 1961 to 2006 and the projections to 

2060 for each world region. Table 38 shows the same data for 

selected years and countries within each region.

Observed evolution of waste paper net trade

From 1992 to 2006, developing countries were net importers 

of waste paper while developed countries were net exporters. 

The annual net imports of developing countries increased 

by 23 million mt. Much of this growth of annual net imports 

was in Asia (18 million mt, with 19 million mt in China, 

partly compensated by a growth of the Japanese net trade of 

4 million mt). Symmetrically, net exports increased in North/

Central America by 9 million mt, and by 10 million mt in 

the United States. The annual net exports of Europe also 

increased by 9 million mt, including a 4 million mt increase in 

the United Kingdom. There was little change in the net trade 

of Africa, while the net exports of Oceania increased by 

1 million mt, mostly in Australia.

Projected evolution of waste paper net trade

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the net imports of 

developing countries decrease by 17 million mt. The main 

regional change is in Asia, where net imports decrease by 

22 million mt, due principally to China’s change from net 

importer to net exporter, a 41 million mt increase in net trade, 

and despite a 14 million mt increase of India’s net imports. 

North/Central America changes from net exporter in 2006 to 

net importer in 2060, with a reduction in annual net trade of 14 

million mt, due mostly to a reduction of Canadian annual net 

imports by 15 million mt. Europe is still a net exporter in 2060, 

but with 3 million mt less of annual net exports compared to 

2006, a change due mostly to Finland going from net exporter 

to net importer with a reduction of 7 million mt in annual net 

trade. In Africa, net imports increased by 2 million mt, 

while there is little change in Oceania.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the annual net imports of 

waste paper in developing countries decreases by 16 million mt. 

This is related mostly to a 20 million mt decrease of net 

imports in Asia, due to a 26 million mt improvement of the net 

trade of China, which goes from net importer to net exporter, 

and despite a 6 million mt increase of annual net imports in 

India. In North/Central America, net trade decreases by 

11 million mt, mostly due to a 13 million mt increase in the net 

imports of Canada. The annual net exports of Europe decrease 

by 4 million mt, due mostly to a deterioration of Finland’s net 

trade. The annual net imports increases by 2 million mt in 

South America and 1 million mt in Africa.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the net imports of 

developing countries decreases by 21 million mt. Asia 

goes from net importer to net exporter, with a 26 million 

mt improvement of net trade (+ 36 million mt in China, 

changing it to a net exporter, against a 9 million mt increase 

in the net imports of India). Symmetrically, North/Central 

America goes from net exporter in 2006 to net importer in 

2060, mostly due to a 15 million mt increase in the annual 

imports of Canada. Europe remains a net exporter, but with 

a reduction of 6 million mt, mostly due to an increase in 

Finland’s imports.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood gives the largest increase in the waste paper annual 

net trade of developing countries among the four scenarios, 

56 million mt. Most of the increase is in Asia, where net 

trade increases by 61 million mt with a 77 million mt 

improvement in China, which goes from being a large 

importer to a large exporter, partly compensated by a 

12 million mt increase in the net imports of India. The net 

trade of North/Central America decreases by 39 million mt, 

and the region becomes a large net importer, mostly due to 

a 33 million mt increase in Canadian imports. Europe also 

changes from net exporter in 2006 to net importer in 2060, 

with a nearly 16 million mt increase in the net imports of 

Finland. The net imports of Africa increase by 2 million mt, 

and the net exports of Oceania decrease by 1 million mt, 

mostly in Australia.

Paper and Paperboard

Prices of paper and paperboard

Figure 20 shows the past and projected values of the world 

prices of newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other 

paper and paperboard, expressed by the unit value of world 

exports in 1997 U.S. dollars. Tables 39, 40, and 41 show the 

prices in selected years and countries. 

Observed evolution of prices of paper and paperboard

Past data show a strong negative trend of the world price of 

all three commodities, but with large fluctuations around this 

trend. From 1992 to 2006, the real world price decreased by 

$124/mt for newsprint, $276/mt for printing and writing paper, 

and by $183/mt for other paper and paperboard. 

Projected evolution of prices of paper and paperboard

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, after a slight decrease 

from 2006 to 2030, the price of newsprint and of printing and 

writing paper ends up in 2060 at about the same level as in 

2006. The price of other paper and paperboard declines to end 

at about $96/mt lower than in 2006.
51

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the prices of all three 

grades of paper decline steadily from 2006 to 2060. The 

real price of newsprint ends approximately $130/mt lower in 

2060 than in 2006, the price of printing and writing paper 

was $220 lower, and that of other paper and paperboard was 

$230 lower.

Scenario B2—The price trends for scenario B2 are similar 

to those of A2, with slightly smaller decreases: -$100/mt 

for newsprint, -$190/mt for printing and writing paper, and 

-$200/mt for other paper and paperboard. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Under scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood, the price changes are similar to those in scenario 

B2, except for less decrease of the price of other paper and 

paperboard (-150$/ton).

Paper and paperboard consumption

Figure 21 shows the historical data and the projections of the 

annual consumption of total paper and paperboard (newsprint, 

printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard), 

by world region. More detailed data for each subcommodity 

group, and for selected years and countries are in tables 42, 43, 

and 44.

Observed evolution of paper and paperboard consumption

From 1992 to 2006, the world annual consumption of total 

paper and paperboard increased by 132 million mt, with 

81 million mt in developing countries. The main regional 

growth was in Asia, where annual consumption increased by 

73 million mt, with 49 million mt in China and 3 million mt 

each in India and the Republic of Korea. In Europe, annual 

consumption increased by 33 million mt, with 5 million mt in 

Germany and 4 million mt each in Spain and Italy. The annual 

consumption of North/Central America grew by 19 million mt, 

with 12 million mt in the United States and 5 million mt in 

Mexico. In South America, annual consumption increased 

by 3 million mt, mostly in Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. It 

increased as much in Africa and by 2 million mt in Oceania.

Projected evolution of paper and paperboard consumption

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, annual world 

consumption of total paper and paperboard increases by 

374 million mt, with 278 million mt in developing countries. 

Asia is the region of most growth (+244 million mt, with 

145 million mt in China, 21 million mt in India, 12 million mt 

in Indonesia, and 10 million mt in Japan). The second largest 

growth of annual consumption is in Europe (+55 million mt, 

with 8 million mt in the Russian Federation, 7 million mt in the 

United Kingdom, and 5 million each in France and Germany). 

In North/Central America, the annual consumption increases 

by 35 million mt, with 17 million mt in the United States, 

9 million mt in Mexico, and 5 million mt in Canada. South 

America increases its annual consumption by 20 million mt, 

with more than half in Brazil. Annual consumption increases 

by 17 million mt in Africa, with 4 million mt each in Egypt and 

Nigeria, and by 3 million mt in Oceania, most of it in Australia.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the growth of annual 

consumption of paper and paperboard is about half what it is 

under scenario A1B: 131 million mt in developing countries 

and 61 million mt in developed countries. Asia still has the 

largest growth: 117 million mt growth in aggregate, with 

75 million mt growth in China, 8 million mt in India, and 

7 million mt in Japan. In Europe, annual consumption grows 

by 31 million mt, with 6 million mt in the United Kingdom 

and 4 million mt each in France and Germany. The North/

Central American annual consumption increases by 

24 million mt, with 14 million mt in the United States and 

5 million mt in Canada. Annual consumption grows by 

10 million mt in South America (with 5 million mt in Brazil), 

8 million mt in Africa, and 3 million mt in Oceania.

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world annual 

consumption of paper and paperboard grows faster for 

developing countries (+179 million mt) but slower for 

developed countries (+48 million mt) than under scenario A2. 

In Asia, the annual consumption increases by 150 million mt, 

with 93 million mt in China and 14 million mt in India. In 

Europe, annual consumption increases by 34 million mt, 

including 4 million each in the Russian Federation and the 

United Kingdom. The increase of annual consumption in both 

Africa (+15 million mt, with 4 million mt in South Africa) and 

in South America (+4 million mt, with 7 million mt in Brazil) 

exceeds the increase in North America (+12 million mt, with 

5 million mt in Mexico and 3 million mt in Canada). 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood gives the largest increase in the world annual 

consumption of paper and paperboard: 404 million mt, with 

291 million in developing countries. Relative to scenario A1B, 

this is due to the lower price of paper and paperboard (fig. 20) 

in concert with a lower price of wood pulp induced by a lower 

price of wood stemming from the low use of wood for energy. 

As in the other scenarios, the largest growth is in Asia, where 

annual consumption increased by 256 million mt, with 

151 million mt in China, 21 million mt in India, 

13 million mt in Indonesia, and 12 million mt in Japan. Europe 

is still the region of second largest growth, with an increase 

of 63 million mt of annual consumption, principally in the 

Russian Federation and the United Kingdom (+8 million mt 

each), Germany (+7 million mt), and France (+6 million mt). 

In North/Central America, annual consumption increased by 

42 million mt, with 22 million mt in the United States, 

10 million mt in Mexico, and 6 million mt in Canada. The annual 

consumption of South America increased by 21 million mt, 
52

:DVWH3DSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Figure 19—Waste paper net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG





Waste paper net trade, scenario A1B

Waste paper net trade, scenario A2
53



:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 19 (continued)—Waste paper net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







<HDU

7

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH







7

:DVWHSDSHUQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

















7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Waste paper net trade, scenario B2

Waste paper net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
54

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU



















 

5HDOW86

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU



















 

5HDOW86

Figure 20—World prices of paper and paperboard by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. 

(continued on next page)

 

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG







Paper and paperboard prices, scenario A1B

Paper and paperboard prices, scenario A2
55

 

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR$



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU

 

3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU

Figure 20 (continued)—World prices of paper and paperboard by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. 





          

<HDU

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU







3DSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGSULFHVVFHQDULR%



















          

<HDU

5HDOW86

1HZVSULQW 3:3DSHU 2WKHU3DSHU





















5HDOW86

Paper and paperboard prices, scenario B2

Paper and paperboard prices, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
56

Figure 21—Paper and paperboard consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)

Total paper and paperboard consumption, scenario A1B

Total paper and paperboard consumption, scenario A2
57

Figure 21 (continued)—Paper and paperboard consumption by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.

Total paper and paperboard consumption, scenario B2

Total paper and paperboard consumption, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
58

with more than half in Brazil. The annual consumption of 

paper and paperboard grew in Africa by 18 million mt, and in 

Oceania by 4 million mt, mostly in Australia. 

Paper and paperboard net trade

Figure 22 shows the annual net trade (exports minus imports) 

of total paper and paperboard of world regions, from 1961 to 

2060. Tables 45, 46, and 47 show detailed data for newsprint, 

printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard, 

for selected years and countries.

Observed evolution of paper and paperboard net trade

From 1992 to 2006, the annual net exports of developed 

countries increased by 5 million mt. The main regional 

change of annual net trade was in Europe (+9 million mt, with 

5 million mt in Finland and 4 million mt each in Germany and 

Sweden). The annual net exports of North/Central America 

decreased by 6 million mt during the same period, mostly due 

to a 3 million mt increase of annual net imports in the United 

States and a 2 million mt increase in Mexico. Net imports also 

increased in Africa and Asia by approximately 1 million mt.

Projected evolution of paper and paperboard net trade

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the annual net imports 

of paper and paperboard in developing countries increase 

steadily and then decrease to end up 25 million mt higher in 

2060 than in 2006 (13 million mt higher in China and 

3 million mt higher in India). The net exports of Europe and 

North America change symmetrically. In North/Central 

America, annual net exports increase by 16 million mt, largely 

due to an increase of 14 million mt of the annual net exports 

of Canada, while the net imports of the United States decrease 

by 3 million mt. In Europe, annual net exports increase by 

8 million mt, with a decrease of net imports of 6 million mt in 

the United Kingdom, an increase of net exports of 3 million 

mt each in France and Germany, and a 7 million mt decrease 

in the net exports of Sweden. The net imports of Africa 

increase by 3 million mt, while Oceania changes from being 

a net importer to net exporter with an overall change in net 

trade of about 1 million mt.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the annual net imports of 

developing countries increase by about half of the projection 

under scenario A1B. The annual imports of Asia decrease by 11 

million mt, with a 9 million mt decrease of net imports in China 

and a 3 million mt decrease of net exports in Indonesia. The 

annual net exports of North/Central America increase by 

8 million mt, with a 6 million mt increase of net exports of 

Canada, and a decrease of 2 million mt of net imports of Mexico. 

Europe increases its annual net exports by 4 million mt, with a 

6 million mt decrease of net imports in the United Kingdom, and 

a 3 million mt increase of the net exports from Germany, but with 

an 8 million mt decrease in the net exports of Sweden. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, developing countries 

increase their annual net imports of paper and paperboard 

slightly less than under scenario A1B. The annual net imports 

decrease by 19 million mt in Asia, with a 14 million mt 

decrease of net imports in China and a 3 million mt decrease 

of net exports in Indonesia. The North/American annual net 

trade improves by 15 million mt, with a 13 million mt increase 

in Canadian annual net exports and a 2 million mt decrease 

in annual net imports of the United States. The net trade of 

Europe also improves by 6 million mt, with a 4 million mt 

increase in the annual net exports of Germany, a 3 million mt 

increase in the net exports of France, and a 6 million mt 

decrease in the net imports of the United Kingdom, but with 

an 8 million mt decrease in the net exports of Sweden. The 

annual net imports of Africa increase by 2 million mt, and 

the annual net exports of Oceania increase by 1 million mt, 

mostly from Australia.

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood leads to an 84 million mt increase of the annual 

net imports in developing countries, the largest among the 

four scenarios. In Asia, annual net imports increase by 

76 million mt, with 64 million mt in China and 3 million mt 

in India, while the net exports of Indonesia decrease by 

3 million mt. Symmetrically, the annual net exports of 

North/Central America increase by 50 million mt, with 

37 million mt in Canada and 15 million mt in the United 

States. In Europe, net exports increase by 31 million mt, 

with an 18 million mt increase in the net exports of Finland, 

an 8 million mt increase in the net exports of Germany, and 

a 6 million mt decrease in the net imports of the United 

Kingdom, and partly compensated by a decrease in the 

annual exports of Sweden of 7 million mt. The annual net 

imports of Africa increase by 3 million mt, while the net 

exports of Oceania increase by about 1 million mt.

Value Added

Figure 23 shows the data on the annual value added to wood 

and fiber input in forest industries, defined as the value of 

production minus the value of wood and fiber consumption, 

in 1992 and 2006, and projected values for 2006 to 2060, for 

the world regions. The value added is in real terms at the 1997 

value of the U.S. dollar. Table 48 shows the corresponding 

data for selected years and countries within each region.

Observed evolution of value added to wood and fiber input

From 1992 to 2006, the world annual value added increased 

by $148 billion, with $80 billion occurred in developing 

countries. The largest regional increase was in Asia (+$70 

billion, with $51 billion in China, $4 billion in the Republic 

of Korea, and $3 billion in Indonesia). In Europe, the annual 

value added increased by $42 billion over the same period, 
59

with $9 billion in Germany, $5 billion in Finland and $4 

billion each in Sweden and Spain. Meanwhile, the North/

Central American annual value added grew by $24 billion, of 

which $12 billion came from the United States and $9 billion 

from Canada. The annual value added increased by $9 billion 

in South America, of which $5 billion occurred in Brazil. In 

Oceania it grew by approximately $2 billion and by $1 billion 

in Africa.

Projected evolution of value added to wood and fiber input

Scenario A1B—Under scenario A1B, the world value added 

increases by $86 billion, mostly in developing countries. The 

main growth is in Asia (+$64 billion, including +$45 billion in 

China and +$7 billion in India, but with a $4 billion decrease 

in Japan). In South America, annual value added increases by 

$6 billion, two-thirds of which is in Brazil. The value added 

in Africa and Europe also increases by about $6 billion each, 

spread over several countries, and despite a $6 billion decrease 

in Germany. In North/Central America, value added increases 

by $3 billion with a $7 billion decrease in the United States 

offset by an almost equal increase in Canada. In Oceania, it 

increased by approximately $1 billion, mostly in Australia.

Scenario A2—Under scenario A2, the world annual value 

added decreases by $3 billion, with a decrease of $29 billion in 

developed countries. The main regional change is a $24 billion 

decrease of value added in North/Central America, with a 

$33 billion decrease in the United States offset in part by a 

$7 billion increase in Canada. Meanwhile, the value added 

increases by $10 billion in Asia, with a $15 billion increase in 

China, but a $6 billion decrease in Japan. In South America, 

value added increases by $5 billion from 2006 to 2060, mostly 

in Brazil. It increases by $4 billion in Africa and $1 billion 

in Europe, where a $7 billion decrease in Germany is partly 

offset by an increase of $3 billion in both Sweden and the 

United Kingdom. 

Scenario B2—Under scenario B2, the world annual value 

added increases by $16 billion, with a decrease of $25 billion 

in developed countries. The main regional decrease is in 

North/Central America, with a $27 billion decrease in the 

United States partly offset by an $8 billion increase in Canada. 

The annual value added also decreases in Europe, by 

$1 billion, with a $7 billion decrease in Germany partly offset 

by rises in several other countries. The annual value added 

increases in Asia (+$22 billion, with an equal increase in 

China and despite a $7 billion decrease in Japan). In Africa, 

annual value added increases by $6 billion. 

Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood—Scenario A1B-Low 

Fuelwood leads to the largest increase in annual value added: 

$120 billion, with $75 billion in developing countries. Value 

added increases in all regions. As under the other scenarios, 

the main change is in Asia (+$53 billion, with $33 billion in 

China and $7 billion in India, but with a $4 billion decrease 

in Japan). In North/Central America, annual value added 

increases by $28 billion, with increases of $14 billion in 

Canada and $11 billion in the United States. The annual value 

added in Europe increases by $20 billion, with a $5 billion 

increase in Finland and a $4 billion increase in the United 

Kingdom, but with decreases of $2 billion and $3 billion 

in Germany and Sweden, respectively. The value added 

increases by $7 billion in Africa, and by $1 billion in Oceania, 

despite an equivalent contraction in New Zealand. 

Summary and Conclusion

The main finding concerns the important impact of the high 

demand for biofuels implied in some of the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. In particular, 

scenario A1B, which implies a 5.5-fold increase in the world 

consumption of fuelwood by 2060, leads to a rapid growth of 

the real price of fuelwood, which converges with the price of 

industrial roundwood by about 2030. At that point, industrial 

roundwood, used in the past to manufacture sawnwood, 

panels, and pulp, starts to be used for energy production. The 

price of all wood then continues to rise steadily up to 2060, 

and the price of manufactured product increases in concert. 

This results in more roundwood diverted into fuelwood for 

the rapidly growing economies of Asia, and in response, more 

roundwood from South America and Europe. 

According to the projections of scenario A1B, the large 

increase in fuelwood demand leads to a total annual 

roundwood consumption of 11.2 billion m3 in 2060. This is 

well above the sustainable production suggested by previous 

studies (Smeets and Faaij 2007). In fact, the A1B scenario 

implies less world growing stock in 2060 than in 2006. And 

even under scenarios A2 and B2, the growing stock of Asia is 

lower in 2060, suggesting unsustainable levels of harvest. It 

is likely that existing forest practice laws and sustained-yield 

policies would not allow this to happen. Scenario A1B in 

particular is liable to run into those constraints. On the other 

hand, the economic and demographic assumptions of scenario 

A1B coupled with a low fuelwood demand, lead to a global 

harvest of 3.6 billion m3 only, and to growing stock higher 

than its current level in 2060, in all regions.

A study for Europe (EEA 2007) up to the year 2030 used 

the EFI-GTM model (Kallio and others 2004) to estimate 

the change in the mix of potential sources of biomass 

for bioenergy (industrial and harvest residues, imports, 

competition with other uses) at different prices, taking into 

consideration available biomass resources and competing 

demands for wood. Like our study, it predicted that at high 
60

7RWDO3DSHU	3DSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%

















          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

































7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%































          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

































7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Figure 22—Paper and paperboard net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model. (continued on next page)



7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$































          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG









Total paper and paperboard net trade, scenario A1B

Total paper and paperboard net trade, scenario A2
61



7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$































          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH



7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG































          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

Figure 22 (continued)—Paper and paperboard net trade by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.





<HDU

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH









7RWDOSDSHUDQGSDSHUERDUGQHWWUDGHVFHQDULR%































          

<HDU

7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

$IULFD 1RUWK&HQWUDO$PHULFD 6RXWK$PHULFD $VLD 2FHDQLD (XURSH

































7KRXVDQGPHWULFWRQV

Total paper and paperboard net trade, scenario B2

Total paper and paperboard net trade, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
62

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR$%























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(























0LOOLRQ86

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR%























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(





















0LOOLRQ86

Figure 23 —Value added to wood and fiber in forest industries by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.

(continued on next page)



523(

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR$























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG









Value added, scenario A1B

Value added, scenario A2
63



23(

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR$























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(



23(

9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR$%ORZIXHOZRRG























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(

Figure 23 (continued)—Value added to wood and fiber in forest industries by world region, observed and projected with the Global Forest Products Model.







       

<HDU

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(







9DOXHDGGHGVFHQDULR%























       

<HDU

0LOOLRQ86

$)5,&$ 1257+&(175$/$0(5,&$ 6287+$0(5,&$ $6,$ 2&($1,$ (8523(





















0LOOLRQ86

Value added, scenario B2

Value added, scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood
64

bioenergy prices, wood would be reallocated from other uses, 

particularly chemical pulp, to bioenergy. As Europe’s wood 

imports also would rise to meet bioenergy demand, this would 

increase the possibility of illegal logging and unsustainable 

forest management in some supplying countries. To help 

avert this, governments in importing and exporting countries 

could strengthen measures that discourage the production and 

trade in illegally logged wood. The Lacey Act Amendment of 

2008 in the United States and the Forest Law Enforcement, 

Governance and Trade program of the European Union are 

examples of such policies. 

Another feature of the projections of the present study is the 

modest growth in the consumption of manufactured wood 

products under most scenarios, leading to moderate changes 

in the real prices of wood-based panels and pulp and paper. 

The price of sawnwood is more affected in scenario A1B 

because of the large share of the wood price, influenced by the 

high fuelwood demand, in the cost of sawnwood production.

However, the consumption of all wood products grows rapidly 

in Asia, due mostly to the fast economic growth of China 

and India in all the scenarios used here. As a result, Asia 

would be a large importer of industrial roundwood, largely 

supplied by South America (Brazil) and Europe (the Russian 

Federation). Asia would also be the largest importer of paper 

and paperboard, primarily from Europe but also from North 

America. Despite these imports, Asia would see the largest 

regional growth of value added to wood and fiber in forest 

industries. 

The projections presented here have three sources of 

uncertainty. One is the theoretical Global Forest Products 

Model (GFPM) structure and its parameters, such as the 

demand elasticities, input-output coefficients, and forest 

growth equation parameters. Another is the data describing 

the past and current state of the world. The third stems from 

the exogenous predictions: population and GDP growth rates, 

biofuel demand growth from the IPCC scenarios, and other 

exogenous changes. 

The GFPM was calibrated in such a way that its base-year 

solution, here for 2006, reproduced the observed data. Earlier 

tests of prediction errors from 1980 to 2000 showed that 

the model replicates the observed trends, if not the year-toyear detail. As expected, projections of consumption and 

production are more accurate than those of trade, and regional 

projections are more accurate than those for individual 

countries (Buongiorno and others 2003, Turner 2004). 

The base-year data used in the GFPM (FAO 2009, World 

Bank 2008) are inaccurate, but are the only internationally 

comparable data. The goal programming approach of 

the calibration procedure corrects some errors in the 

forestry production data of the FAOSTAT (Buongiorno 

and others 2001). Strong assumptions have been made in 

the projections. In particular, technical change is reflected 

mostly by the wood-saving changes in manufacturing and 

the increasing use of waste paper in paper and paperboard 

manufacture. The possibility of better recovery of wood 

in the forest has not been considered explicitly. It is also 

possible that future carbon pricing policies may have effects 

on forests and forest industries that are not taken into 

account in the IPCC scenarios or the model. In addition, 

future developments of general energy prices may limit the 

rise in the price of wood energy that occurs under scenario 

A1B and the substitution of wood for other energy sources, a 

topic that merits further investigation. 

In considering other future studies, the issue of climate 

change and its impact on the forest sector comes naturally 

to mind [see Kirilenko and Sedjo (2007) for a review]. As 

used in this study, the GFPM includes the impact of climate 

change on future forest growth explicitly only for the United 

States through the shifts of timber supply. For other countries, 

climate change is incorporated only to the extent that it is 

reflected by past growth data. Several studies have used the 

projections of atmospheric and biological climate change in 

economic forest sector models, for countries (McCarl and 

others 2000), regions (Solberg and others 2003), or the world 

(Perez-Garcia and others 2002, Sohngen and Sedjo 2005). 

Some studies assume higher growth of forests due to elevated 

CO2 concentrations, higher temperatures, and longer growing 

seasons (Nabuurs and others 2002), factors that in turn lead 

to increased timber inventories and supply, particularly in 

South America and Oceania, and hence lower timber prices 

(Perez-Garcia and others 2002, Sohngen and Mendelsohn 

1998, Sohngen and Sedjo 2005, Solberg and others 2003). This 

growth may be limited by the propagation of pests, diseases, 

and invasive species (Sohngen and Sedjo 2005). 

Still, the main source of uncertainty for the time horizon 

of this study rests in the future world situation stylized by 

the IPCC scenarios. Scenario A1B is very different from 

A2 and B2 in terms of future population, economic growth, 

and biofuel demand. Given current knowledge, no definite 

probability may be assigned to each scenario. Yet each 

scenario represents a plausible outcome. The results presented 

in this report—with due caution and wisdom—should prove 

useful in assessing the implications of future world forestry 

and its implications for the United States. 
65

Acknowledgments

The research leading to this report was supported in part by 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern 

Research Station, in Asheville, NC. We are most grateful to 

Dali Zhang and James Turner for their earlier contribution 

to the development of the Global Forest Products Model, 

and to Peter Ince, Andrew Kramp, and David Wear for 

their collaboration, especially concerning the United States 

data. We also acknowledge with thanks the helpful review 

comments of David Darr, Sun Joseph Chang, Shashi Kant, 

Susan Phelps, and Linda Langner.

Literature Cited

Alcamo, J.D.; van Vuuren, D.; Ringer, C.; [and others] 2005. 

Changes in nature’s balance sheet: model-based estimates of future 

worldwide ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 10(2): 1-19

Buongiorno, J. 2009. International trends in forest products 

consumption: is there convergence? International Forestry Review 

11(4): 490-500.

Buongiorno, J.; Liu, C.S.; Turner, J.A. 2001. Estimating 

international wood and fiber utilization accounts in the presence 

of measurement errors. Journal of Forest Economics 7(2): 101-124.

Buongiorno, J., Zhu, S.; Zhang, D.;[and others] 2003. The Global 

Forest Products Model: structure, estimation, and applications. 

Academic Press/Elsevier. San Diego. 301 p.

Buongiorno, J.; Zhu, S. 2011a. Using the Global Forest Products 

Model (GFPM version 2011). Staff Paper Series # 71, Department 

of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin Madison. 

http://fwe.wisc.edu/facstaff/buongiorno/. [Date accessed: 

November 1, 2011].

Buongiorno, J.; Zhu, S. 2011b. Calibrating and updating the Global 

Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010). Staff Paper Series 

#70, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of 

Wisconsin Madison. http://fwe.wisc.edu/facstaff/buongiorno/. 

[Date accessed: November 1, 2011].

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 

2009. FAOSTAT Forestry data 1961-2006. http://faostat.fao.org/

site/626/default.aspx#ancor [Date accessed: June 19, 2009].

FAO 2006. Global forest resources assessment 2005. FAO Forestry 

Paper 147, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United 

Nations, Rome. 320 p.

Ince, P.J.; Kramp, A.D.; Skog, K.E.; [and others] 2011. U.S. 

Forest Product Model: A technical document supporting the 

Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Res. Pap. FPL-RP-662. 

Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 

Forest Products Laboratory. 61 p.

Kallio, A.M.I.; Moiseyev, A.; Solberg, B. 2004. The global forest 

sector model EFI-GTM. The model structure. European Forest 

Institute, Joensuu, EFI Internal Report 15.

Kando, I.; Buongiorno, J. 2009. Efficiency in wood and fiber 

utilization in OECD countries. Journal of Forest Research 

14(6): 321-327.

Katsigris, E.; Bull, G.Q.; White, A.; [and others] 2005. The 

China forest products trade: overview of Asia-Pacific supplying 

countries, impacts and implications. International Forestry 

Review 6(3-4): 237-253.

Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A. 2007. Climate change impacts on 

forestry. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

104(50): 19697-19702.

McCarl, B.; Adams, D.M.; Alig, R.J.; [and others] 2000. Effects 

of global climate change on the U.S. forest sector: response 

functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator. 

Climate Research 15:195-205.

Nabuurs, G.J.; Prussinen, A.; Karjalainen, T.; [and others]

2002. Stem volume increment changes in European forests due 

to climate change—a simulation study with the EFISCEN model. 

Global Change Biology 8:304-316.

Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; [and others] 2001. Special 

Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change.http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.

htm. [Date accessed: November 1, 2011].

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X. 2002. 

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector. Climatic 

Change 54: 439-461.

Sala-i-Martin, X. 2006. The world distribution of income: Falling 

poverty and ...convergence, period. Quarterly Journal of 

Economics. CXXI (2): 351-397.

Samuelson, P.A. 1952. Spatial price equilibrium and linear 

programming. American Economic Review 42: 283-303.

Simangunsong, B.; Buongiorno, J. 2001. International demand 

equations for forest products: a comparison of methods. 

Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 16: 155-172.

Smeets, E.M.W.; Faaij, A.P.C. 2007. Bioenergy potentials from 

forestry in 2050: an assessment of the drivers that determine the 

potentials. Climatic Change 81: 353-390.

Sohngen, B.; Mendelsohn, R. 1998. Valuing the impact of largescale ecological change in a market: the effect of climate change 

on U.S. timber. American Economic Review 88(4): 689-710.

Sohngen, B.; Sedjo, R. 2005. Impacts of climate change on forest 

product markets: implications for North American producers. The 

Forestry Chronicle 81(5): 689-674.

Solberg, B.; Moiseyev, A.; Kallio, A.M.I. 2003. Economic impacts 

of accelerating forest growth in Europe. Forest Policy and 

Economics 5(2): 157-171.

Turner, J.A. 2004. Trade liberalization and forest resources: a global 

modeling approach. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Wisconsin, 

Madison. 303 p.

Turner, J.A.; Buongiorno, J.; Zhu, S. 2006. An economic model 

of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change. 

Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 21: 73-86. 

USDA Forest Service. 2012. Future scenarios: a technical document 

supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. RMRS-GTR-272. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 34 p.

World Bank. 2008. World Development Indicators. http://data.

worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators. [Date 

accessed: November 1, 2011].
66

Index of Tables

Table 1— Countries and world regions represented in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Table 2— Elasticity of demand for end products in the Global Forest Products Model with respect to 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), price, and yearly rate of shift . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Table 3— Rates of shift in wood supply and of forest area change in the United States assumed in the 

Global Forest Products Model scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Table 4— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global scenario characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

Table 5— Projected percent growth rate of Gross Domestic Product for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Table 6— Observed and projected Gross Domestic Product per capita for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model ($U.S. of 1990) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

Table 7— Observed and projected forest area (thousand ha) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Table 8— Observed and projected forest stock (million m3) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Table 9— Observed and projected fuelwood prices (1997$/ m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . 75

Table 10— Observed and projected industrial roundwood prices (1997$/ m3) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Table 11— Observed and projected sawnwood prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . 77

Table 12— Observed and projected fuelwood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Table 13— Observed and projected fuelwood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Table 14— Observed and projected industrial roundwood consumption (except energy wood) (thousand m3) 

for world regions and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Table 15— Observed and projected industrial roundwood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

Table 16— Observed and projected sawnwood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

Table 17— Observed and projected sawnwood net trade (thousand m3) for world region and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Table 18— Observed and projected veneer and plywood prices (1997$/ m3) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Table 19— Observed and projected particleboard prices (1997$/ m3) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Table 20— Observed and projected fiberboard prices (1997$/ m3) for selected countries

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
67

Index of Tables (continued)

Table 21— Observed and projected veneer and plywood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Table 22— Observed and projected particleboard consumption (thousand m3) by world region 

and country in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

Table 23— Observed and projected fiberboard consumption (thousand m3) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Table 24— Observed and projected veneer and plywood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and 

selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Table 25— Observed and projected particleboard net trade (thousand m3) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Table 26— Observed and projected fiberboard net trade (thousand m3) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Table 27— Observed and projected mechanical pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Table 28—Observed and projected chemical pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

Table 29—Observed and projected other fiber pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . 95

Table 30—Observed and projected waste paper prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . 96

Table 31—Observed and projected mechanical pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

Table 32— Observed and projected chemical pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

Table 33— Observed and projected mechanical pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

Table 34— Observed and projected chemical pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Table 35— Observed and projected other fiber pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Table 36— Observed and projected waste paper consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

Table 37— Observed and projected other fiber pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Table 38— Observed and projected waste paper net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

Table 39— Observed and projected newsprint prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . 105

Table 40— Observed and projected printing and writing paper prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
68

Index of Tables (continued)

Table 41— Observed and projected other paper and paperboard prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Table 42— Observed and projected newsprint consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

Table 43— Observed and projected printing and writing paper consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

Table 44— Observed and projected other paper and paperboard consumption (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Table 45— Observed and projected newsprint net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Table 46— Observed and projected printing and writing paper net trade (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

Table 47— Observed and projected other paper and paperboard net trade (thousand mt) for world regions 

and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Table 48— Observed and projected value added to wood and fiber input in forest industries (million 1997$) 

for world regions and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
69

Table 1—Countries and world regions represented in the Global Forest Products Model

AFRICA Uganda Brunei Darussalam New Zealand

Algeria Congo, Dem. Rep. Zambia Cambodia Papua New Guinea

Angola Zimbabwe China Samoa

Benin NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA Cyprus Solomon Islands

Botswana Bahamas Georgia Tonga

Burkina Faso Barbados Hong Kong Vanuatu

Burundi Belize India EUROPE

Cameroon Canada Indonesia Albania

Cape Verde Cayman Islands Iran, Islamic Rep. of Austria

Central African Rep Costa Rica Iraq Belgium

Chad Cuba Israel Belarus

Congo, Rep Dominica Japan Bosnia and Herzegovina

Côte d’Ivoire Dominican Rep Jordan Bulgaria

Djibouti El Salvador Kazakhstan Croatia

Egypt Guatemala Korea, Dem. Peop Rep Czech Republic

Equatorial Guinea Haiti Korea, Rep Denmark

Ethiopia Honduras Kuwait Estonia

Gabon Jamaica Kyrgyzstan Finland

Gambia Martinique Lao People’s Dem. Rep. France

Ghana Mexico Lebanon Germany

Guinea Netherlands Antilles Macau Greece

Guinea-Bissau Nicaragua Malaysia Hungary

Kenya Panama Mongolia Iceland

Lesotho Saint Vincent/Grenadines Myanmar Ireland

Liberia Trinidad and Tobago Nepal Italy

Libyan Arab Jam. United States of America Oman Latvia

Madagascar SOUTH AMERICA Pakistan Lithuania

Malawi Argentina Philippines Macedonia, The fmr Yug. Rep. of

Mali Bolivia, Plurinational State of Qatar Malta

Mauritania Brazil Saudi Arabia Moldova, Rep

Mauritius Chile Singapore Netherlands

Morocco Colombia Sri Lanka Norway

Mozambique Ecuador Syrian Arab Rep. Poland

Niger French Guiana Tajikistan Portugal

Nigeria Guyana Thailand Romania

Réunion Paraguay Turkey Russian Federation

Rwanda Peru Turkmenistan Slovakia

São Tomé and Príncipe Suriname United Arab Emirates Slovenia

Senegal Uruguay Uzbekistan Spain

Sierra Leone Venezuela, Boliv Rep. Vietnam Sweden

Somalia ASIA Yemen Switzerland

South Africa Afghanistan OCEANIA Ukraine

Sudan Armenia Australia United Kingdom

Swaziland Azerbaijan, Rep. Cook Islands Serbia and Montenegro

Tanzania, United Rep. Bahrain Fiji Islands

Togo Bangladesh French Polynesia

Tunisia Bhutan New Caledonia
70

Table 2—Elasticity of demand for end products in the 

Global Forest Products Model with respect to Gross 

Domestic Product (GDP), price, and yearly rate of shift

GDP Price Year

Fuelwood-developing countries 0.051 -0.10 2

Fuelwood-developed countries 0.221 -0.10 2

Sawnwood 0.22 -0.10 -0.003

Standard error 0.03 0.02 0.001

Plywood & veneer 0.41 -0.29 -0.009

Standard error 0.04 0.02 0.002

Particleboard 0.54 -0.29 -0.006

Standard error 0.07 0.02 0.002

Fiberboard 0.35 -0.46 -0.002

Standard error 0.06 0.02 0.002

Newsprint 0.58 -0.25 -0.008

Standard error 0.04 0.02 0.001

Printing & Writing 0.45 -0.37 0.003

Standard error 0.03 0.02 0.001

Other paper & Paperboard 0.43 -0.23 -0.004

Standard error 0.03 0.02 0.001

1Used only in Scenario A1B-Low Fuelwood

2 Annual rates of shift set to conform with Intergovernmental Climate Control Panel 

biofuel projections (see text)

Table 3—Rates of shift in wood supply and of forest area change in the United States assumed in the 

Global Forest Products Model scenarios 

2006-2007 2007-2010 2010-2015 2015-2030 2030-2045 2045-2060

Annual rate of wood supply shift

Scenarios A1B and A1B-Low Fuelwood 0.0000 0.0000 0.0175 0.0047 0.0135 -0.0094

Scenario A2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0038 0.0070 0.0065 0.0030

Scenario B2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0184 0.0050 0.0033 0.0038

Annual rate of forest area change

Scenarios A1B and A1B-Low Fuelwood -0.0044 -0.0045 -0.0015 -0.0009 0.0006 -0.0046

Scenario A2 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0012 -0.0045 0.0028 0.0044

Scenario B2 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0013 -0.0012 0.0014 -0.0043

Table 4—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

global scenario characteristics

Scenario

A1B A2 B2

Population growth low high medium

GDP1 growth very high medium medium

Energy use very high high medium

Land- use changes low medium/high medium

Resource availability medium low medium

Pace of technological change rapid slow medium

1Gross Domestic Product
71

Table 5—Projected percent growth rate of Gross Domestic Product for world regions and selected countries in 

the Global Forest Products Model1

Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2

2006-2030 2030-2060 2006-2030 2030-2060 2006-2030 2030-2060

AFRICA 7.1 5.4 3.4 4.1 5.0 5.9 

Egypt 7.2 5.1 3.8 4.4 4.6 5.2 

Nigeria 8.9 6.1 5.0 4.7 7.0 7.0 

South Africa 4.1 3.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 3.6 

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 

Canada 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.6 0.8 

Mexico 5.2 3.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.1 

United States 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.1 

SOUTH AMERICA 5.3 3.3 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.4 

Argentina 4.7 2.8 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.7 

Brazil 5.2 3.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.0 

Chile 4.9 2.9 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.6 

ASIA 5.5 3.8 2.5 2.4 3.7 2.8 

China 7.4 3.8 3.9 3.2 5.6 2.8 

India 8.8 5.1 4.2 3.2 6.8 4.0 

Indonesia 8.2 4.5 3.9 2.8 5.7 2.9 

Japan 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.1 

Korea, Republic of 4.9 1.7 0.8 -0.1 2.9 0.3 

Malaysia 6.5 2.7 2.7 1.4 4.5 1.5 

OCEANIA 2.9 2.1 2.2 1.6 2.2 0.9 

Australia 2.6 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.0 0.8 

New Zealand 2.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.1 

EUROPE 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 

EU-27 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 

Austria 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.4 

Finland 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.5 

France 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 

Germany 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.3 

Italy 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.2 

Spain 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 

Sweden 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.6 

United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 

Russian Federation 5.7 3.2 1.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 

DEVELOPED, ALL 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 

DEVELOPING, ALL 6.7 4.2 3.1 3.0 4.6 3.7 

WORLD 3.9 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 

1Projections based on population projections of the International Panel on Climate Change and on the projections of gross domestic product 

per capita in Table 6. 
72

Table 6—Observed and projected Gross Domestic Product per capita for world regions and 

selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model ($U.S. of 1990)1

Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2

2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 1027 3449 13545 1417 3307 1987 7755

Egypt 1240 4756 17495 1929 4256 2724 9996

Nigeria 475 2326 11626 966 2927 1400 7430

South Africa 4451 12318 30137 5226 7615 6492 14278

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 19677 29684 50391 23592 30083 22940 27454

Canada 27162 39205 61551 34505 43524 34798 43857

Mexico 4558 12537 30442 5044 6844 6533 14059

United States 28679 41021 62485 35884 46269 32933 34262

SOUTH AMERICA 4378 11953 29322 5023 7408 6564 15364

Argentina 6778 16849 36044 6982 8638 8845 16925

Brazil 4528 12477 30358 4997 6790 6501 14019

Chile 5865 15128 33892 7084 10777 9584 24292

ASIA 2352 7016 20939 3141 4908 4515 9226

China 1016 5431 19510 2051 4170 3295 7499

India 616 3741 15767 1255 2579 2365 6646

Indonesia 1030 5490 19630 1865 3267 3132 6568

Japan 29518 41711 63769 36580 44166 36747 44684

Korea, Republic of 11909 33965 55616 13072 11392 21685 23975

Malaysia 5773 19809 40868 7547 8541 12349 16696

OCEANIA 18860 28943 49811 23107 29233 25107 32288

Australia 24629 36449 59039 31751 41582 32768 43297

New Zealand 18744 29742 52562 26272 38419 26805 38764

EUROPE 15225 26595 51409 20035 27489 21823 35509

EU-27 20291 31703 55194 26676 35845 27343 39164

Austria 27521 39591 61896 35505 44611 35179 44214

Finland 36042 48398 69424 43606 50531 44063 52379

France 28108 40217 62453 35577 44425 35823 44859

Germany 28416 40545 62744 36207 45066 36161 45196

Italy 25384 37278 59803 33241 42779 32829 41868

Spain 18861 29880 52702 27012 39209 26428 37256

Sweden 36520 48875 69814 44029 50815 44519 52731

United Kingdom 22360 33918 56660 30001 40373 29647 39004

Russian Federation 3786 15034 43203 4961 10464 8434 23430

DEVELOPED, ALL 18808 30362 53982 24132 32046 24595 33838

DEVELOPING, ALL 1607 5939 18836 2357 4239 3510 8675

WORLD 5158 10275 24889 6013 8289 7143 12576

1 Data for 2006 are from World Bank (2008), and projections are based on projections of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 

with the method described in Appendix B. 
73

Table 7—Observed and projected forest area (thousand ha) for world regions and selected countries in the Global Forest 

Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood 

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 678886 621478 557314 601973 542215 494239 543351 528537 557314 601973

Egypt 47 69 90 166 87 130 87 142 90 166

Nigeria 16323 10724 5237 2506 5144 2108 5159 2266 5237 2506

South Africa 9203 9203 10189 13995 9474 10610 9468 11429 10189 13995

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 709453 705105 687181 686483 683035 665927 683561 679249 687181 686483

Canada 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134 310134

Mexico 68306 63982 64557 78295 59686 57918 59861 63649 64557 78295

United States of America 299374 303393 289317 274456 291161 278722 291414 284490 289317 274456

SOUTH AMERICA 883014 827570 746999 799827 697526 610124 699499 667058 746999 799827

Argentina 34958 32889 33345 36816 30646 29423 30680 32105 33345 36816

Brazil 514550 474832 416039 423027 384549 312091 385710 343158 416039 423027

Chile 15376 16186 19709 28814 18413 23991 18564 26654 19709 28814

ASIA 571242 572212 538150 650391 517377 509967 524906 556983 538150 650391

China 160926 201631 210764 297789 202732 226462 205279 244506 210764 297789

India 64646 67701 71072 95958 68918 74077 69843 81819 71072 95958

Indonesia 112557 86726 58360 45368 55816 33198 56623 36225 58360 45368

Japan 24935 24868 24868 24868 24868 24868 24868 24868 24868 24868

Korea, Republic of 6357 6259 6533 6533 6339 6356 6575 7251 6533 6533

Malaysia 22217 20744 20252 21049 18572 16789 19302 19732 20252 21049

OCEANIA 211391 205720 203331 207719 201607 198256 202212 201284 203331 207719

Australia 167247 163515 163678 163678 163678 163678 163678 163678 163678 163678

New Zealand 7819 8326 8769 8769 8814 8889 8825 8963 8769 8769

EUROPE 990882 1002045 969796 1050580 872526 827293 914467 996283 969796 1050580

EU-25 136105 145990 156797 171371 154033 165226 155754 175161 156797 171371

Austria 3788 3866 3871 3871 3865 3865 3870 3870 3871 3871

Finland 22250 22500 22500 22500 22500 22500 22500 22500 22500 22500

France 14697 15601 15807 15807 15762 15762 15872 15872 15807 15807

Germany 10807 11076 11076 11076 11076 11076 11076 11076 11076 11076

Italy 8586 10089 12151 12272 12380 13361 12518 14130 12151 12272

Russian Federation 809014 808790 763025 816943 672553 612273 710711 761223 763025 816943

Spain 14024 18220 20301 20658 20413 21479 20449 22236 20301 20658

Sweden 27388 27528 27528 27528 27528 27528 27528 27528 27528 27528

United Kingdom 2646 2857 3037 3037 3075 3094 3097 3161 3037 3037

DEVELOPED, ALL 1825647 1837684 1793207 1867801 1695758 1639910 1738676 1819737 1793207 1867801

DEVELOPING, ALL 2219221 2096446 1909564 2129172 1818528 1665897 1829318 1809658 1909564 2129172

WORLD 4044868 3934130 3702771 3996973 3514286 3305807 3567994 3629395 3702771 3996973

1Observations derived from FAO (2001), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
74

Table 8—Observed and projected forest stock (million m3) for world regions and selected countries in the Global Forest 

Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 67818 64970 60721 60342 60870 58456 60565 61007 62473 73653

Egypt 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nigeria 1962 1467 291 10 443 39 406 32 426 90

South Africa 635 653 262 33 294 97 271 88 316 216

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 72449 75574 76266 60810 77514 76049 76991 75354 77690 84877

Canada 32983 33214 32591 27882 32801 32722 32769 32195 32688 33673

Mexico 3144 3144 2285 633 2226 1061 2256 1071 2503 2061

United States of America 32543 35856 38814 30663 39852 40283 39364 40041 39739 46420

SOUTH AMERICA 128286 121704 129673 139228 122626 122041 122605 130605 131206 165942

Argentina 2091 1825 2048 1721 1922 1863 1922 2010 2097 2619

Brazil 87732 81321 88267 94029 83009 81767 82966 87556 89363 113693

Chile 1587 1945 2384 1374 2384 2728 2367 2708 2508 3959

ASIA 50474 47015 39509 28534 40872 35930 40674 36376 42477 47956

China 10831 13295 9725 3403 10275 6123 10171 5793 10853 10974

India 4421 4698 2102 254 2646 893 2521 780 2717 1887

Indonesia 12123 4893 2327 271 2598 652 2462 584 2684 1231

Japan 3247 4249 6456 8058 6514 9587 6507 9358 6472 9847

Korea, Republic of 274 529 1186 1194 1199 1950 1227 2045 1224 2176

Malaysia 5011 5311 6375 6982 5916 6659 6127 7627 6412 8586

OCEANIA 12616 12559 12620 10959 12681 12396 12697 12398 12747 13302

Australia 10203 10203 10666 9861 10718 10944 10723 10935 10738 11409

New Zealand 1181 1181 970 449 997 741 998 720 989 820

EUROPE 104210 109662 116775 109632 107755 109748 112210 127601 118497 146481

EU-25 17439 21023 25861 17164 26290 29174 26474 29867 26791 36576

Austria 974 1192 1413 1002 1447 1672 1449 1579 1455 1871

Finland 1939 2158 2464 1431 2559 2886 2546 2641 2523 3218

France 2113 2559 2897 841 3181 2430 3137 2329 3157 3441

Germany 2899 2899 3828 2219 3982 4280 3949 4178 3957 5291

Italy 1095 1475 2127 1801 2231 2700 2239 2720 2220 2780

Russian Federation 80086 80479 80236 81495 71374 67897 75243 83139 80728 92458

Spain 627 913 1247 844 1295 1541 1291 1482 1286 1662

Sweden 2838 3155 3284 1835 3403 3219 3380 3214 3361 3865

United Kingdom 274 355 405 185 428 395 429 377 414 460

DEVELOPED, ALL 186017 196091 207720 188215 200048 205422 203996 222540 210634 250657

DEVELOPING, ALL 249836 235393 227844 221289 222270 209197 221746 220802 234457 281553

WORLD 435853 431484 435563 409504 422318 414619 425741 443342 445091 532210

1Observations derived from FAO (2006), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
75

Table 9—Observed and projected fuelwood prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 56 46 101 266 71 128 78 135 69 73

Nigeria 44 46 101 266 71 128 78 135 69 73

South Africa 53 46 101 266 71 128 78 135 69 73

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 44 46 99 256 70 118 77 125 59 63

Mexico 53 46 95 265 70 127 71 134 59 63

United States of America 53 56 88 338 77 194 77 189 48 60

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 44 46 91 266 71 128 76 127 59 63

Brazil 44 46 91 256 61 118 68 125 59 63

Chile 44 46 91 256 61 118 68 125 59 63

ASIA

China 44 61 107 282 75 136 83 144 68 73

India 44 56 100 265 70 127 77 134 68 72

Indonesia 44 46 101 266 71 128 78 135 69 73

Japan 53 56 100 265 70 127 77 134 59 63

Korea, Republic of 44 46 91 266 61 118 68 135 59 63

Malaysia 44 67 91 256 73 118 75 125 59 63

OCEANIA

Australia 53 46 91 256 71 128 75 125 59 63

New Zealand 44 0 91 262 71 121 76 127 59 66

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 53 56 91 256 68 118 68 125 59 63

Finland 53 56 91 256 61 118 68 125 59 63

France 44 46 91 265 64 127 68 125 59 63

Germany 53 56 91 265 70 127 77 129 59 63

Italy 53 56 100 265 70 127 77 134 59 63

Russian Federation 44 46 91 256 61 118 68 125 59 63

Spain 53 46 100 265 70 127 77 134 59 63

Sweden 44 56 91 256 70 127 71 125 59 63

United Kingdom 44 46 100 265 70 127 77 134 59 63

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 52 39 91 256 61 118 68 125 59 63

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
76

Table 10—Observed and projected industrial roundwood prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest 

Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 96 91 107 281 92 138 94 146 97 82

Nigeria 86 80 150 642 123 342 128 376 131 232

South Africa 86 80 117 318 102 166 107 164 101 91

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 101 94 92 255 81 117 82 124 84 62

Mexico 111 102 112 291 96 144 98 154 101 86

United States of America 86 80 87 336 76 193 76 188 67 59

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 86 80 91 264 74 127 75 126 78 64

Brazil 86 80 88 254 74 115 75 123 78 63

Chile 86 80 88 256 73 118 75 125 78 63

ASIA

China 96 91 103 265 90 134 92 141 93 80

India 98 94 103 272 87 133 89 140 92 78

Indonesia 86 80 108 310 91 164 96 174 98 101

Japan 101 94 99 265 82 127 83 134 90 72

Korea, Republic of 102 95 102 261 86 115 88 132 91 76

Malaysia 86 80 91 255 74 117 75 124 78 64

OCEANIA

Australia 86 80 90 256 74 127 75 124 77 62

New Zealand 86 80 86 240 73 111 74 117 75 69

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 101 95 91 256 80 118 81 125 84 64

Finland 102 95 93 256 80 118 83 125 86 63

France 86 80 88 264 73 126 75 125 77 64

Germany 86 80 90 263 72 125 74 127 76 62

Italy 100 93 100 264 85 128 86 134 89 76

Russian Federation 86 80 87 251 76 113 77 121 78 65

Spain 101 94 98 263 85 125 85 133 89 76

Sweden 102 95 102 255 88 126 90 125 92 63

United Kingdom 104 80 100 273 85 135 85 141 88 80

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 117 72 88 256 73 118 75 125 78 63

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
77

Table 11—Observed and projected sawnwood prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 266 281 220 346 188 189 192 198 198 126

Nigeria 228 241 257 407 222 235 227 245 233 168

South Africa 253 268 273 400 229 220 247 236 236 158

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 228 241 222 392 207 244 207 251 210 183

Mexico 228 281 260 436 241 271 241 288 244 211

United States of America 253 268 244 482 229 320 229 320 217 181

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 276 241 234 408 209 255 211 254 215 184

Brazil 228 241 232 397 209 245 212 253 216 185

Chile 228 241 231 397 207 245 210 253 214 184

ASIA

China 261 276 251 394 236 254 236 262 240 199

India 329 348 290 414 269 260 272 268 276 199

Indonesia 228 241 240 392 222 253 227 261 230 198

Japan 258 273 246 386 229 248 230 255 237 194

Korea, Republic of 266 281 254 388 238 239 240 256 243 200

Malaysia 228 241 229 378 211 240 213 247 216 184

OCEANIA

Australia 266 281 258 396 230 255 232 252 236 183

New Zealand 228 241 228 384 210 243 212 249 215 192

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 228 241 222 384 210 243 211 249 214 187

Finland 228 241 222 395 206 245 209 251 214 183

France 256 271 241 394 224 250 226 248 229 185

Germany 256 241 228 387 211 248 213 250 215 184

Italy 256 271 251 395 231 256 231 271 235 206

Russian Federation 228 241 229 396 204 246 207 252 212 183

Spain 256 271 246 387 231 248 231 256 235 199

Sweden 228 241 222 392 199 250 202 249 206 178

United Kingdom 256 271 251 392 231 254 231 260 235 201

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 238 228 222 392 203 250 203 249 206 178

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
78

Table 12—Observed and projected fuelwood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1 

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 385835 593599 701913 1136946 468373 474802 461414 461605 603427 659620

Egypt 14635 17059 37967 105943 27998 53116 22403 32768 17400 18652

Nigeria 52854 61628 87065 137594 55595 49764 59776 59725 64160 69740

South Africa 12609 12000 25152 64528 16258 24005 22801 52391 14057 17148

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 172042 131625 359046 1694285 303738 1320517 281122 1132446 139808 150294

Canada 6227 2869 14293 114737 13010 92903 11082 66010 2953 3316

Mexico 34918 38516 78882 194067 60174 106273 54677 85437 39308 40899

United States of America 90452 44949 205517 1276662 186870 1070749 176209 939550 50700 56765

SOUTH AMERICA 166209 192331 318148 673299 239628 344650 208271 257774 197120 205488

Argentina 2872 4372 16911 85196 12503 44118 11243 35335 4679 4844

Brazil 123251 138783 201735 322909 157362 182356 135590 133380 140890 146642

Chile 9000 13488 19905 32809 13495 13517 11618 9866 13542 14045

ASIA 790243 790676 1486215 4662336 866970 1727169 1152119 2504305 846462 902026

China 196145 203510 429999 1053636 253936 320514 351141 676775 220920 231820

India 283869 306331 526808 1027229 289151 264957 392849 538087 327066 350364

Indonesia 115666 70718 128186 260601 75088 77586 102530 159581 76630 81368

Japan 184 106 4017 351145 3670 285244 3023 187861 118 127

Korea, Republic of 2611 2469 14793 137346 7259 27456 10285 60951 2515 2562

Malaysia 3845 3025 12318 65785 6485 16091 9061 34157 3320 3434

OCEANIA 9875 10915 29488 104306 24309 79725 21998 55230 13664 14942

Australia 4021 5042 17613 75600 16357 65079 12883 38704 6020 6782

New Zealand 50 1 3396 11338 3158 9879 2723 7148 1414 1590

EUROPE 114722 153397 364106 1593968 265344 953840 271521 856294 163305 191523

EU-25 42367 82300 208174 1132441 174397 808950 159009 631966 75841 84611

Austria 3271 4977 8576 20425 7493 15301 7043 13262 4407 4741

Finland 2895 5455 8877 16264 8019 12797 7086 9906 5613 5981

France 9692 32682 58799 193232 53339 154308 44467 104523 23880 26263

Germany 3836 8758 33417 224435 29402 171556 25325 125412 7493 8115

Italy 5145 6703 24834 131345 21899 98438 19105 73791 6823 7337

Russian Federation 63879 45800 98321 248860 56558 70830 71749 123689 60063 73551

Spain 2433 1461 10129 83955 8789 60564 7905 48648 1992 2194

Sweden 3788 6088 12103 27430 10659 20933 10076 18557 6420 6849

United Kingdom 225 176 3007 166158 2723 131933 2372 98630 132 146

DEVELOPED, ALL 228775 219234 639883 3687497 508318 2578852 504363 2230209 239768 278916

DEVELOPING, ALL 1410152 1653310 2619033 6177644 1660044 2321849 1892082 3037445 1724019 1844979

WORLD 1638927 1872543 3258916 9865141 2168362 4900701 2396445 5267654 1963787 2123894

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
79

Table 13—Observed and projected fuelwood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -8 2 -22124 137885 18087 137508 75914 192186 -142116 -271513

Egypt -5 0 -37956 -105909 -27998 -53115 -22400 -32762 -17400 -18652

Nigeria 0 1 -47538 -133642 -15303 -42829 -18211 -53750 -27048 -61607

South Africa -9 0 -11080 -59797 -5904 -17591 -12046 -46253 -3357 -10006

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 2 94 7923 221624 -14381 -43588 6621 77377 10031 3446

Canada 161 128 0 372114 -7310 35457 -4612 92684 1620 1818

Mexico -8 5 0 -124768 -7273 -55480 0 -31113 8495 0

United States of America -152 -35 -196 -46 -1657 -29099 -601 -526 562 10038

SOUTH AMERICA 16 0 278957 2175234 102585 576349 184171 854061 147901 296522

Argentina 0 0 633 -5659 -2531 -10496 0 0 3872 9635

Brazil 0 0 229398 1895183 86755 449178 147027 653857 109704 212791

Chile 16 0 28674 133588 14592 108135 20621 131503 14611 39089

ASIA -44 -326 -416088 -3413247 -106748 -837568 -311396 -1595339 -115959 -283345

China 0 -5 -79319 -693683 -14853 -35681 -82998 -391468 0 0

India 1 -79 -222719 -928776 -39464 -103789 -123863 -391067 -80424 -181764

Indonesia 0 1 -24538 -225503 0 -38946 -21913 -123372 -1610 -45722

Japan -22 -1 -2962 -191596 -3399 -232073 -2714 -126106 98 246

Korea, Republic of 0 0 2739 -57670 3463 21551 2381 -48 7950 18844

Malaysia 7 -12 17037 91514 0 36963 0 32393 434 7963

OCEANIA -1 -1 15626 77444 -2446 2180 3039 24861 5351 11512

Australia -1 0 3465 58219 -4681 -9192 0 16273 3228 7349

New Zealand 0 0 4411 0 -1018 0 0 0 263 0

EUROPE -137 757 136466 801820 3663 165880 42411 447615 95553 244138

EU-25 -272 -740 56980 -227761 -27638 -114468 6832 77903 54830 138217

Austria -277 -272 2058 7246 0 15018 550 20747 1887 4271

Finland -17 -165 3990 10740 18 57287 2179 50334 1963 5381

France 108 516 19433 -103092 0 -33436 13146 8277 24163 31084

Germany -41 -468 16026 -56781 -14594 -43737 -6484 0 4277 15270

Italy -313 -1097 -4610 -72777 -8428 -63031 -3733 -35742 3940 7609

Russian Federation 21 200 34774 760488 14008 136870 14102 203548 15792 26805

Spain -133 146 -906 -37542 -2935 -30151 -1271 -15157 2690 4526

Sweden 12 -188 1216 1 -763 0 0 1230 1407 3063

United Kingdom 0 141 -1872 -164489 -1958 -130422 -1500 -97090 465 582

DEVELOPED, ALL -166 844 128237 819806 -22541 -149956 19975 320671 98122 254136

DEVELOPING, ALL -6 -318 -127477 -819047 23301 150716 -19215 -319912 -97362 -253376

WORLD -172 526 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
80

Table 14—Observed and projected industrial roundwood consumption (except energy wood) (thousand m3) for world 

regions and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 52971 65082 65908 48101 61897 51787 63988 53110 68458 62163

Egypt 223 321 4516 3734 3624 3112 3811 3458 4596 4190

Nigeria 8258 8770 8695 5768 7610 5002 8287 6333 9044 7389

South Africa 14455 17923 11660 5471 11058 5689 11218 7172 11863 7698

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 554822 602667 567997 357308 510785 212955 539576 280653 590147 444764

Canada 165929 186345 182408 108805 160897 136851 162125 123611 166861 109436

Mexico 7113 6296 7887 4008 11255 10824 8244 3385 8751 10338

United States of America 378169 405418 372506 238842 334051 60224 364466 148127 409262 318677

SOUTH AMERICA 111002 158217 155835 90991 146305 96523 147417 96844 165241 110503

Argentina 7024 9466 9671 6544 8787 5158 8668 5734 10268 7500

Brazil 78909 100681 109613 59571 103595 65317 104555 63686 118343 75002

Chile 13166 33106 21295 11835 20492 12404 20424 12629 21370 12970

ASIA 306059 321210 381658 424614 303524 339337 324668 358790 375046 462807

China 100229 148261 185017 211081 146102 172242 155702 181930 184094 240757

India 25630 27232 35145 36003 26833 24644 31214 30156 35330 37988

Indonesia 42621 27534 23708 17656 19944 13183 21129 14090 24220 20384

Japan 65900 38660 45947 50914 36809 45937 37431 42315 41218 48810

Korea, Republic of 9431 10314 15278 21009 11006 12941 12124 15193 14033 18668

Malaysia 27208 18407 12681 12741 10692 9853 11560 10298 12852 13277

OCEANIA 21278 38081 35903 31691 34305 24205 34434 27022 35784 26860

Australia 10248 21919 21704 12210 20899 12301 20840 11445 21718 14460

New Zealand 10241 15589 13413 18809 12742 11327 12866 14959 13276 11681

EUROPE 432219 492240 495197 383611 460390 449167 467174 398800 500742 418194

EU-25

Austria 14371 22815 16194 12209 13950 14496 14240 11533 14985 13868

Finland 40966 59466 53870 29897 46373 36717 47918 30082 50213 36277

France 30887 27498 32376 27325 31019 27566 30431 26584 31977 31447

Germany 27893 51873 52821 48531 48163 47498 48444 49298 52820 60691

Italy 9174 8622 10344 15832 8745 14537 7866 11573 9184 13556

Russian Federation 153539 94219 70875 49949 65304 49210 64462 44901 71376 54761

Spain 13811 17726 19829 18522 17595 18697 17541 16902 18627 20093

Sweden 54408 62361 83121 46514 97115 104880 97900 73129 99139 44195

United Kingdom 6263 7884 12847 20441 11024 19426 11052 18250 11262 18834

DEVELOPED, ALL 1077553 1179684 1146285 822594 1039369 725147 1079127 750697 1168436 934272

DEVELOPING, ALL 400799 497813 556213 513722 477837 448826 498129 464521 566982 591018

WORLD 1478352 1677497 1702499 1336316 1517206 1173974 1577256 1215219 1735418 1525290

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
81

Table 15—Observed and projected industrial roundwood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 4026 3150 -19455 -14923 -12425 -15026 -14524 -19948 -15976 -25995

Egypt -98 -116 -4511 -3729 -3622 -3109 -3809 -3456 -4593 -4186

Nigeria 5 41 -4531 -4621 -2725 -3350 -3522 -4624 -3877 -4951

South Africa 818 140 0 -1417 0 0 -329 -1808 0 -1213

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 22463 5519 5531 7449 -5940 -10747 -912 -2420 17673 98929

Canada -2421 -1148 0 663 0 5 0 21 0 7004

Mexico -68 -165 -2860 0 -7185 -7758 -4005 -97 -3881 -7213

United States of America 24933 6717 9768 9730 2368 -655 4329 296 22944 102647

SOUTH AMERICA 7248 2495 48819 12995 16551 89436 19706 39333 21203 65505

Argentina 553 33 0 0 424 0 437 0 522 1

Brazil 355 87 28027 574 1793 77884 4099 37488 2817 38796

Chile 6191 111 21539 22 15349 12028 16280 14 19117 28527

ASIA -38810 -51465 -156336 -233579 -87621 -154626 -107394 -182844 -134577 -247235

China -7788 -33023 -98323 -131247 -66275 -98822 -75100 -108979 -97598 -166694

India -723 -4040 -24694 -32580 -15883 -19005 -20543 -24993 -23339 -31832

Indonesia 490 565 -1586 -9294 0 -3765 -1124 -5108 -1688 -10574

Japan -38786 -10550 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Korea, Republic of -8308 -6367 -5431 0 -2835 0 -3537 0 -5106 -5567

Malaysia 17830 4771 0 122 12705 3 11282 13 16534 11432

OCEANIA 13907 9650 -329 282 4733 -181 4624 -169 5424 -274

Australia 6406 1063 0 460 0 0 179 17 487 1

New Zealand 4774 5568 0 0 2924 0 2639 0 2917 0

EUROPE -937 31018 119986 225991 82916 89358 96715 164262 104467 107285

EU-25 -11623 -23166 28948 202351 20268 -7924 23855 75847 24589 43374

Austria -4516 -8384 0 28809 0 4 0 17 0 0

Finland -5361 -13946 0 77974 0 1267 0 15964 0 6136

France 1697 1094 4864 0 3432 0 4612 11 4883 0

Germany 5165 3888 0 0 17720 0 16905 0 17463 5787

Italy -5649 -4471 -4878 -1660 -3921 -5453 -2896 -1813 -4151 -8603

Russian Federation 10461 50384 83810 2304 49339 93578 58827 80633 64673 59666

Spain -2187 -3617 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -296

Sweden -4688 -3660 0 93223 -26052 0 -25379 31675 -24331 7810

United Kingdom -72 229 0 -1174 0 -1347 0 0 0 -7871

DEVELOPED, ALL -5493 32158 125813 207740 86517 76272 101414 145740 128271 211298

DEVELOPING, ALL 13390 -31790 -127598 -209525 -88302 -78057 -103199 -147525 -130056 -213083

WORLD 7897 368 -1785 -1785 -1785 -1785 -1785 -1785 -1785 -1785

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
82

Table 16—Observed and projected sawnwood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 10452 12638 16671 19805 14050 16057 15204 19252 16823 21589

Egypt 1633 1465 2055 2463 1756 2101 1825 2291 2075 2724

Nigeria 2675 1979 2827 3596 2373 2876 2615 3655 2853 3931

South Africa 2254 2515 3046 3240 2584 2611 2930 3365 3090 3557

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 118741 159609 168456 162902 164431 161674 162201 153425 170224 179840

Canada 12543 21271 22093 21212 21662 20991 21563 20109 22215 22968

Mexico 2675 6779 7825 8223 6622 6785 6876 7469 7874 8866

United States of America 101286 128405 135263 129913 133317 130816 130796 122403 136840 144176

SOUTH AMERICA 25256 32503 37260 39109 31869 33064 33022 36153 37527 42319

Argentina 1663 1833 1811 1850 1547 1547 1595 1682 1827 2010

Brazil 18137 20764 24524 25669 20822 21319 21511 23167 24702 27790

Chile 2181 5377 6152 6344 5376 5632 5634 6300 6198 6871

ASIA 106710 101150 122794 134483 105880 112497 113497 121030 123361 144479

China 21336 32438 36548 40195 30765 33867 33487 35930 36719 43122

India 17472 14943 20848 25158 16744 18621 19057 22308 20949 27079

Indonesia 7683 2610 3623 4143 2949 3161 3233 3470 3640 4447

Japan 36566 21042 21443 19963 20973 19493 20692 18578 21521 21440

Korea, Republic of 4338 5155 6163 5947 5026 4504 5603 5122 6190 6367

Malaysia 3994 3525 4085 4175 3399 3326 3720 3645 4109 4499

OCEANIA 6209 7641 8550 8366 8397 8325 8422 7979 8618 9034

Australia 4187 5010 5472 5358 5408 5353 5376 5057 5521 5795

New Zealand 1648 2324 2649 2576 2630 2625 2651 2534 2664 2769

EUROPE 134916 120144 126706 122519 118162 113979 120461 116084 127437 131877

EU-25 74241 102783 105068 100253 99982 95107 100790 95173 105658 107795

Austria 3821 5499 5272 4863 5165 4752 5162 4710 5291 5242

Finland 2797 5077 5397 4915 5314 4877 5302 4849 5418 5327

France 11429 12426 12638 11987 12411 11821 12195 11364 12699 12963

Germany 17540 20851 19348 18010 18988 17622 18832 17050 19463 19460

Italy 8215 9441 9114 8490 8934 8253 8831 7949 9173 9081

Russian Federation 47368 6242 9287 9756 7432 7944 8140 8755 9361 10567

Spain 4378 7062 7126 6799 6996 6671 6923 6455 7159 7282

Sweden 4028 5467 6029 5502 5944 5406 6028 5525 6073 5974

United Kingdom 9208 10455 11117 10702 10919 10531 10764 10153 11189 11472

DEVELOPED, ALL 293914 302904 319198 307594 306785 298183 306761 290853 321832 335609

DEVELOPING, ALL 108370 130781 161240 179590 136004 147413 146045 163070 162158 193529

WORLD 402283 433685 480437 487184 442789 445595 452807 453922 483990 529138

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
83

Table 17—Observed and projected sawnwood net trade (thousand m3) for world region and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -2354 -3424 -2265 -850 -599 6072 -1547 1021 -1908 2274

Egypt -1633 -1463 -440 -95 -440 -95 -440 -95 -440 -95

Nigeria 40 21 6 1 6 10 6 4 6 10

South Africa -436 -424 -1357 -1189 -416 -59 -1198 -419 -1357 -379

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 11004 -2770 -2082 -12182 -15239 -99824 -1556 -34477 -3953 -3068

Canada 27595 37438 16513 3545 12899 12842 13173 2828 14042 3015

Mexico 21 -4129 -6050 -7879 -1996 -594 -4333 -7119 -5677 -4201

United States of America -16136 -35501 -12029 -7501 -25743 -111915 -9945 -29840 -11817 -1572

SOUTH AMERICA 1449 6983 2194 1162 2463 3565 2398 2196 2198 1527

Argentina -191 270 69 15 69 15 69 15 69 15

Brazil 491 3033 945 203 945 566 945 203 945 203

Chile 839 3341 875 188 930 904 918 197 875 188

ASIA -9492 -21081 -11690 -6528 -14093 -5173 -21409 -8558 -15173 -7678

China -1580 -6662 -2518 -829 -3597 -772 -10628 -2513 -5213 -1237

India -12 -154 -26 -6 -26 -6 -26 -6 -26 -6

Indonesia 755 1623 506 109 506 109 506 99 506 109

Japan -9289 -8488 -2756 -590 -4086 -875 -4098 -880 -3047 -654

Korea, Republic of -825 -789 -232 -49 -232 -48 -232 -50 -232 -50

Malaysia 5375 1604 550 764 550 764 550 238 550 118

OCEANIA -303 1631 390 556 392 433 392 304 389 229

Australia -1146 -226 -133 -103 -133 -29 -133 -29 -133 -29

New Zealand 896 1910 523 514 523 310 523 187 523 112

EUROPE -797 25547 17523 21914 31147 99000 25793 43587 22518 10787

EU-25 -7605 5057 11695 20199 19123 86695 18401 41947 16955 9749

Austria 3199 5008 2029 2302 1635 2277 1635 351 1635 351

Finland 4533 7150 2217 476 2121 5904 2121 455 2121 455

France -941 -2434 -732 -157 -732 -98 -732 -98 -732 -157

Germany -4044 3569 720 1785 720 959 720 155 720 155

Italy -6392 -7693 -6808 -2699 -7514 -2820 -7699 -4962 -7568 -5895

Russian Federation 6002 15884 4411 947 9728 9374 6085 1306 4424 950

Spain -1910 -3256 -2283 -479 -3452 -730 -3410 -732 -3139 -855

Sweden 8100 12833 27581 24090 38050 84361 38050 53535 36674 26615

United Kingdom -7113 -7548 -6233 -1513 -7547 -2541 -7221 -2086 -7430 -5130

DEVELOPED, ALL 173 18388 16648 15000 12864 -1543 22657 14009 19083 9904

DEVELOPING, ALL -667 -11502 -12577 -10928 -8793 5616 -18586 -9937 -15013 -5832

WORLD -494 6886 4071 4072 4071 4072 4071 4072 4071 4072

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
84

Table 18—Observed and projected veneer and plywood prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest 

Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 545 571 488 621 441 452 447 462 456 386

Nigeria 524 422 408 565 353 381 360 393 371 310

South Africa 461 483 452 665 425 488 428 498 429 416

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 403 422 395 594 370 430 372 438 373 364

Mexico 444 465 431 631 393 458 398 468 405 390

United States of America 436 457 428 688 405 462 404 472 391 365

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 465 487 424 569 376 406 381 406 389 331

Brazil 403 422 395 594 358 430 363 438 370 363

Chile 403 422 404 594 370 430 374 439 381 366

ASIA

China 469 422 418 618 394 451 398 460 403 385

India 403 422 419 604 394 448 398 457 403 388

Indonesia 403 422 428 616 400 448 407 457 412 383

Japan 448 470 440 606 413 446 416 454 417 405

Korea, Republic of 465 487 456 588 429 429 432 448 433 397

Malaysia 403 422 411 610 381 433 385 443 389 364

OCEANIA

Australia 440 461 431 595 387 444 389 440 397 368

New Zealand 403 422 410 601 389 436 391 443 394 378

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 403 422 391 641 366 429 369 438 373 343

Finland 403 422 394 594 370 430 372 438 373 363

France 448 470 438 605 409 442 412 440 417 370

Germany 448 470 440 652 413 462 416 462 417 372

Italy 448 470 440 609 413 462 416 463 417 405

Russian Federation 403 422 410 595 381 432 385 441 391 368

Spain 448 470 436 667 408 449 408 461 417 373

Sweden 448 470 440 594 413 441 416 440 417 376

United Kingdom 448 470 440 648 413 475 416 485 417 405

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 491 442 395 594 370 430 372 438 373 363

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
85

Table 19—Observed and projected particleboard prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 235 319 300 415 270 271 274 280 280 215

Nigeria 235 304 353 446 317 289 322 299 329 228

South Africa 235 284 330 469 286 284 304 301 294 229

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 235 236 235 402 219 253 220 261 222 192

Mexico 268 270 269 439 253 281 253 294 256 222

United States of America 246 248 249 486 232 323 232 322 219 192

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 276 236 249 404 223 265 226 264 231 201

Brazil 235 236 263 415 239 276 243 284 247 221

Chile 235 236 240 388 217 251 220 259 223 195

ASIA

China 283 284 275 408 258 269 261 276 264 214

India 235 319 300 407 278 268 283 276 287 214

Indonesia 235 257 260 401 241 262 246 270 250 208

Japan 259 260 258 400 241 262 242 269 247 208

Korea, Republic of 264 265 265 402 248 253 248 271 251 218

Malaysia 235 236 239 393 221 255 223 262 226 197

OCEANIA

Australia 256 257 258 391 227 262 229 259 234 198

New Zealand 235 236 242 397 224 257 226 263 229 207

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 235 236 235 392 222 254 223 261 226 200

Finland 235 236 235 393 219 255 222 262 227 199

France 235 236 244 423 224 269 226 267 230 199

Germany 264 236 242 400 224 262 226 264 229 198

Italy 264 265 262 407 247 268 248 276 251 213

Russian Federation 235 294 279 391 255 253 259 260 263 198

Spain 266 267 260 400 247 262 246 269 251 213

Sweden 264 236 259 386 235 256 238 255 243 193

United Kingdom 264 265 265 421 248 272 248 279 251 216

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 278 260 235 402 219 310 220 309 222 192

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
86

Table 20—Observed and projected fiberboard prices (1997$/m3) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 376 455 397 501 364 357 369 366 376 301

Nigeria 391 474 426 600 404 436 406 447 413 370

South Africa 301 421 379 538 358 389 360 398 366 328

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 301 364 328 476 308 337 310 346 315 282

Mexico 313 379 342 490 322 351 324 360 329 296

United States of America 301 383 343 555 325 355 327 404 316 280

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 301 364 335 484 308 345 310 346 315 282

Brazil 301 364 334 476 308 337 310 346 315 283

Chile 301 364 333 476 309 338 312 346 317 283

ASIA

China 360 364 352 475 336 336 338 344 342 282

India 301 493 406 490 384 352 388 360 392 298

Indonesia 301 364 343 490 324 352 329 359 333 298

Japan 322 390 346 483 331 345 331 353 337 292

Korea, Republic of 338 409 360 485 343 337 346 354 350 298

Malaysia 376 364 333 476 314 337 316 346 320 284

OCEANIA

Australia 329 364 335 476 308 347 310 345 315 282

New Zealand 301 364 328 478 311 340 313 346 315 291

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 301 364 326 524 308 342 310 352 315 280

Finland 301 409 349 474 332 336 335 344 340 282

France 301 364 332 484 311 346 314 346 318 285

Germany 338 364 330 483 313 346 315 348 318 283

Italy 338 409 358 491 343 352 344 359 348 297

Russian Federation 301 455 381 475 358 338 361 345 366 283

Spain 301 409 333 494 319 349 319 356 324 298

Sweden 338 409 363 474 340 344 343 343 348 281

United Kingdom 338 409 367 512 345 356 345 364 351 295

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 366 328 328 476 308 337 310 346 315 282

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
87

Table 21—Observed and projected veneer and plywood consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 930 737 1168 1521 849 1024 980 1440 1188 1765

Egypt 157 145 249 328 187 239 200 281 254 377

Nigeria 75 55 102 146 75 97 89 151 105 172

South Africa 84 96 102 102 74 67 95 108 104 117

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 19864 22723 23263 19962 22372 20400 21759 18336 23834 24047

Canada 2020 1987 1879 1589 1821 1565 1803 1443 1910 1841

Mexico 337 944 1168 1165 866 817 925 982 1188 1346

United States of America 17305 19552 19898 16882 19443 17772 18767 15609 20412 20484

SOUTH AMERICA 1825 643 1657 1657 1254 1230 1339 1456 1689 1923

Argentina 101 107 117 115 88 83 93 97 120 134

Brazil 1088 184 877 866 652 614 692 718 894 1003

Chile 55 125 237 230 186 185 203 227 242 266

ASIA 21274 37242 54105 56306 40726 41060 46528 46041 54761 64665

China 5469 20987 34078 36410 24866 26754 29067 29859 34460 41993

India 239 2108 3672 4612 2450 2638 3116 3693 3713 5270

Indonesia 386 817 1520 1774 1041 1084 1234 1288 1537 2046

Japan 9917 8348 7399 5924 7138 5708 6951 5216 7513 6685

Korea, Republic of 1871 1798 2463 2140 1695 1276 2073 1621 2501 2404

Malaysia 849 550 823 774 588 515 695 609 836 904

OCEANIA 356 745 723 629 705 631 709 583 736 725

Australia 217 370 372 325 367 325 363 293 381 375

New Zealand 65 352 323 279 319 291 323 272 326 321

EUROPE 8702 8707 9075 7964 7906 6908 8202 7232 9205 9214

EU-25 6864 7063 6995 5921 6460 5457 6505 5462 7097 6855

Austria 140 7 41 31 40 31 40 30 42 38

Finland 136 272 217 166 211 164 211 162 220 193

France 768 651 610 510 594 499 574 463 619 590

Germany 1726 1228 1109 880 1074 861 1058 811 1127 1042

Italy 1165 671 716 573 692 543 676 512 727 648

Russian Federation 1141 1083 1435 1443 947 987 1122 1182 1455 1666

Spain 179 501 472 383 460 383 451 359 478 457

Sweden 164 237 215 171 209 166 215 173 219 196

United Kingdom 1420 1360 1345 1123 1304 1098 1268 1025 1366 1293

DEVELOPED, ALL 38406 39686 39542 33593 37406 32996 36902 30642 40349 39642

DEVELOPING, ALL 14546 31111 50450 54446 36405 38257 42615 44445 51063 62698

WORLD 52952 70797 89992 88039 73811 71253 79517 75087 91413 102340

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
88

Table 22—Observed and projected particleboard consumption (thousand m3) by world region and country in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 613 1146 1965 3167 1290 1856 1613 3006 2012 3880

Egypt 41 15 31 52 21 34 23 43 31 63

Nigeria 40 42 106 213 68 122 87 220 108 259

South Africa 277 582 790 970 528 572 718 1068 817 1201

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 17374 36049 40900 38493 39396 39533 37750 34031 42325 51072

Canada 1667 3625 3420 3242 3266 3223 3231 2892 3476 4061

Mexico 440 176 410 486 272 308 298 390 416 597

United States of America 15160 32112 36807 34414 35677 35767 34019 30439 38164 45986

SOUTH AMERICA 1370 4331 6738 8254 4607 5499 5007 6796 6870 10004

Argentina 188 421 632 706 430 459 463 563 646 872

Brazil 634 2372 3826 4567 2564 2892 2776 3549 3896 5518

Chile 210 497 707 807 509 608 571 800 722 993

ASIA 5384 18245 31739 41755 22510 29784 26161 33559 32109 50695

China 1383 9222 17024 22823 11185 15211 13744 17578 17215 27678

India 58 101 227 383 133 184 182 287 230 462

Indonesia 228 207 471 694 285 363 357 456 476 845

Japan 1288 1691 1730 1520 1642 1457 1587 1294 1752 1852

Korea, Republic of 727 1731 2691 2579 1635 1326 2138 1812 2731 3101

Malaysia 119 0 28 30 18 18 22 22 28 37

OCEANIA 741 1178 1435 1426 1394 1425 1384 1256 1473 1745

Australia 646 1034 1241 1236 1216 1242 1198 1082 1277 1514

New Zealand 92 137 157 154 155 164 158 150 160 188

EUROPE 30988 46375 58468 59764 46153 46526 50344 53187 59292 72281

EU-25 23743 36838 44287 42319 37645 35555 39490 38099 44899 50915

Austria 877 930 940 809 896 777 895 759 950 994

Finland 273 270 281 237 271 234 270 231 284 291

France 2641 3110 3611 3242 3481 3206 3330 2912 3673 4079

Germany 8279 9196 9456 8299 9050 7996 8872 7373 9609 10278

Italy 2652 3781 3936 3466 3738 3287 3631 3020 3985 4211

Russian Federation 4507 5209 8154 10202 4703 6204 5882 7862 8287 12447

Spain 1912 3548 3864 3618 3694 3507 3601 3233 3901 4374

Sweden 598 463 774 676 748 654 774 689 788 831

United Kingdom 2829 3555 4058 3837 3879 3767 3746 3441 4119 4697

DEVELOPED, ALL 50205 86471 104407 103807 89684 90480 92686 92529 106760 130169

DEVELOPING, ALL 6265 20853 36838 49052 25665 34141 29573 39305 37321 59508

WORLD 56470 107324 141245 152858 115349 124622 122259 131834 144081 189677

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
89

Table 23—Observed and projected fiberboard consumption (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 177 907 1357 1817 1051 1435 1186 1843 1380 2298

Egypt 5 232 381 548 301 451 319 516 390 692

Nigeria 16 40 87 131 66 98 77 142 89 165

South Africa 49 320 374 414 288 312 354 466 380 523

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 7188 12909 14807 13993 14338 15746 14018 13865 15307 19211

Canada 545 1349 1358 1303 1338 1397 1326 1295 1382 1673

Mexico 42 916 1159 1280 901 1022 954 1189 1178 1627

United States of America 6498 10408 11919 10990 11799 12964 11417 10948 12366 15370

SOUTH AMERICA 645 3577 4194 4637 3340 3882 3532 4465 4297 5921

Argentina 84 234 399 422 317 346 332 394 411 546

Brazil 416 1921 2451 2710 1927 2192 2027 2488 2516 3468

Chile 98 624 658 710 541 639 581 759 673 908

ASIA 4063 33880 52872 62871 41398 52909 46528 57711 53600 80370

China 1752 23962 37934 45859 29183 38323 33314 41888 38453 58647

India 47 276 469 684 336 459 411 608 477 859

Indonesia 8 33 230 290 168 206 194 237 233 367

Japan 1055 936 1533 1398 1493 1471 1462 1356 1551 1778

Korea, Republic of 415 2068 2935 2872 2146 2028 2545 2458 2974 3613

Malaysia 20 1401 2221 2344 1681 1787 1936 2053 2262 3001

OCEANIA 268 747 847 827 842 895 842 832 868 1056

Australia 100 533 571 558 572 603 566 551 587 715

New Zealand 157 199 250 242 250 272 253 256 254 308

EUROPE 5686 18080 20735 21020 18180 19710 19122 21212 21071 26956

EU-25 3453 14743 16259 15918 14879 15580 15299 16231 16517 20431

Austria 67 575 480 408 472 450 471 439 487 553

Finland 101 248 253 231 250 248 248 245 256 295

France 257 937 903 837 893 892 867 838 921 1078

Germany 729 3789 3625 3271 3559 3451 3510 3270 3691 4226

Italy 261 1537 1648 1520 1608 1587 1576 1496 1671 1927

Russian Federation 1518 1672 2319 2754 1641 2152 1895 2498 2360 3495

Spain 335 1401 1180 1087 1158 1161 1139 1096 1195 1387

Sweden 174 299 367 342 363 359 370 372 374 436

United Kingdom 493 1706 1874 1803 1848 1944 1807 1825 1912 2340

DEVELOPED, ALL 14198 32193 37328 36650 34345 37295 35005 36819 38191 48240

DEVELOPING, ALL 3829 37907 57483 68515 44803 57282 50223 63108 58333 87570

WORLD 18027 70100 94811 105165 79148 94577 85228 99927 96524 135811

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
90

Table 24—Observed and projected veneer and plywood net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -82 33 288 1051 606 1308 532 1194 305 1020

Egypt -122 -120 -35 -7 -35 -7 -35 -7 -35 -7

Nigeria -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

South Africa -37 -58 -102 -101 -74 -66 -95 -107 -104 -116

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA -57 -6635 -2648 -1127 -5736 -17115 -4104 -12640 -372 -366

Canada 319 265 3295 2455 2583 902 2920 3253 1883 380

Mexico -167 -810 -200 -54 -193 -39 -192 -39 -200 -40

United States of America -106 -5901 -5487 -3260 -7933 -17772 -6623 -15609 -1795 -385

SOUTH AMERICA 450 3646 8173 2803 10254 15144 10028 11569 9840 10106

Argentina -30 -16 -1 0 -1 1 -1 2 -1 5

Brazil 446 2860 7631 1843 9320 13889 9320 10250 9320 9478

Chile 30 679 260 59 598 129 390 79 262 53

ASIA 3135 7344 -3322 -2014 -3613 -2671 -4048 -2673 -5871 -7690

China -3342 7112 1302 262 1302 262 1302 262 1302 262

India 10 22 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

Indonesia 9769 2995 1163 234 1135 229 1162 234 1164 235

Japan -3689 -5034 -4042 -815 -4819 -1629 -4646 -1370 -5755 -4743

Korea, Republic of -923 -1285 -1140 -227 -1006 -311 -1398 -373 -1727 -1148

Malaysia 2451 4883 1348 272 1329 268 1337 269 1348 272

OCEANIA -45 -183 -50 -42 -42 -18 -45 -18 -51 -40

Australia -81 -225 -56 -44 -56 -11 -56 -11 -56 -11

New Zealand 44 52 24 19 24 3 24 5 24 -9

EUROPE -2877 -1282 -863 907 109 4928 -786 4145 -2276 -1453

EU-25 -3050 -2866 -1499 -203 -587 3609 -1464 2800 -2899 -2256

Austria 35 171 206 72 287 1505 218 1090 144 717

Finland 347 1143 1404 1376 2269 3382 1464 2479 711 158

France -226 -220 -60 -28 -61 -12 -60 -12 -75 -38

Germany -878 -993 -627 -236 -704 -338 -713 -186 -778 -400

Italy -255 -337 -309 -66 -494 -304 -486 -212 -516 -602

Russian Federation 219 1531 404 81 441 89 439 89 404 81

Spain -9 -33 -8 -32 -7 -2 -7 -2 -68 -55

Sweden -96 -145 -81 -16 -47 -23 -70 -19 -117 -89

United Kingdom -1413 -1360 -1345 -1123 -1304 -1098 -1268 -1025 -1366 -1293

DEVELOPED, ALL -6414 -12341 -7517 -1140 -10360 -13860 -9509 -9998 -8368 -6695

DEVELOPING, ALL 6938 15264 9093 2717 11937 15437 11087 11576 9944 8273

WORLD 524 2923 1577 1577 1577 1576 1577 1578 1577 1578

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
91

Table 25—Observed and projected particleboard net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -2 -196 -429 -1060 -350 -208 -374 -429 -435 -456

Egypt 0 -9 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0

Nigeria 0 -2 -10 -19 -10 -5 -10 -9 -10 -9

South Africa 19 -60 -192 -798 -192 -124 -192 -281 -192 -246

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 402 -943 6512 3743 3679 -1217 5980 917 8661 10662

Canada 1890 8909 15960 12844 13897 33957 11238 27504 11821 10843

Mexico -26 -76 -384 -253 -219 -47 -266 -134 -388 -578

United States of America -1453 -9737 -8918 -8683 -9902 -35029 -4882 -26314 -2622 659

SOUTH AMERICA 21 198 -92 -171 366 1016 288 807 -62 -139

Argentina -10 164 29 12 29 31 29 23 29 12

Brazil 26 128 4 5 4 11 4 11 4 5

Chile 24 25 47 37 439 1076 370 910 76 79

ASIA -667 -1439 -3968 -1648 -2304 -433 -3589 -1009 -4829 -3030

China -141 -706 -167 -11 -168 0 -163 1 -167 -11

India 2 -77 -34 -4 -20 -2 -29 -3 -34 -4

Indonesia 122 -82 -66 -12 -17 6 -70 -10 -57 -49

Japan -125 -446 -326 -36 -370 -40 -395 -44 -698 -88

Korea, Republic of -451 -954 -1551 -272 -799 -114 -1464 -255 -1885 -1434

Malaysia 31 453 91 132 76 142 77 132 84 43

OCEANIA 63 62 -33 -26 -10 10 -15 6 -22 -34

Australia -4 -32 -17 -18 -7 3 -7 3 -7 0

New Zealand 70 101 21 28 20 27 20 28 21 9

EUROPE -1879 3595 -1240 -89 -630 1582 -1542 459 -2563 -6252

EU-25 -2302 4539 -609 416 -292 1448 -999 730 -1827 -5364

Austria 729 1495 442 909 280 663 280 678 284 132

Finland 81 170 30 38 43 128 30 96 30 15

France 27 1650 221 127 221 337 221 337 221 127

Germany -828 1644 294 758 294 553 294 758 294 204

Italy -387 -56 -37 18 -171 47 -638 -28 -307 -39

Russian Federation 15 -492 -66 13 -66 34 -66 22 -66 6

Spain -232 -232 -50 39 -97 53 -154 27 -50 15

Sweden -17 78 -45 26 -45 39 -45 39 -45 9

United Kingdom -1092 -929 -982 -105 -944 -109 -804 -73 -1468 -1311

DEVELOPED, ALL -1511 1634 4071 2208 2132 11 3255 710 4529 4017

DEVELOPING, ALL -551 -357 -3321 -1458 -1381 740 -2506 41 -3779 -3267

WORLD -2062 1277 750 750 750 750 750 751 750 750

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
92

Table 26—Observed and projected fiberboard net trade (thousand m3) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -83 -662 -912 -962 -675 -715 -790 -1000 -914 -1207

Egypt -2 -214 -104 -16 -72 -11 -78 -12 -102 -16

Nigeria -16 -40 -87 -131 -66 -98 -77 -142 -89 -165

South Africa 8 -162 -374 -413 -288 -311 -354 -466 -380 -522

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 403 -2785 142 949 -3996 -12433 -998 -3146 -53 106

Canada 127 598 2244 3000 784 1744 1058 3173 2015 1363

Mexico -7 -762 -1066 -1279 -727 -1000 -811 -1182 -1028 -1598

United States of America 301 -2475 -817 -523 -3877 -12964 -1056 -4884 -817 655

SOUTH AMERICA 350 1249 603 15 2729 1284 1934 455 1184 514

Argentina 12 421 303 47 759 128 562 114 490 290

Brazil 282 373 254 43 1775 1186 1252 381 650 310

Chile 73 512 184 29 282 44 216 45 199 31

ASIA -834 -32 -2911 -2796 -2491 -2592 -2627 -2901 -2988 -4091

China -270 740 -49 138 -49 44 -49 44 -49 44

India 1 -146 -23 -4 -23 -4 -23 -4 -23 -4

Indonesia 45 394 79 12 75 12 77 12 80 13

Japan -126 -41 -162 -25 -336 -53 -274 -43 -176 -27

Korea, Republic of -61 -420 -88 -14 -91 -10 -91 -14 -88 -14

Malaysia -10 1223 281 387 246 78 256 140 278 43

OCEANIA 360 1002 667 434 382 43 502 104 894 671

Australia -1 309 302 83 181 28 293 92 549 646

New Zealand 372 708 391 378 222 35 233 36 371 58

EUROPE -55 1121 1742 1692 3382 13744 1310 5819 1208 3338

EU-25 -106 1458 1261 1205 2920 11844 1081 4373 930 3220

Austria 26 406 328 79 181 548 201 294 267 1601

Finland 0 -118 -19 -1 -19 -1 -19 -1 -19 -1

France 168 453 185 29 162 25 161 66 195 31

Germany -141 2144 977 829 524 82 597 199 859 134

Italy -11 -326 -82 -13 -83 -13 -82 -13 -82 -13

Russian Federation 47 -220 -32 6 -32 -5 -32 6 -32 -5

Spain 65 -103 52 8 52 8 52 8 52 8

Sweden -11 -145 -43 -5 -43 -7 -44 -5 -43 -5

United Kingdom -337 -834 -221 -35 -217 -34 -222 -35 -221 -35

DEVELOPED, ALL 528 -287 2931 3848 -220 1953 868 3379 2367 5082

DEVELOPING, ALL -387 180 -3600 -4517 -448 -2622 -1537 -4048 -3036 -5751

WORLD 141 -107 -669 -669 -668 -669 -669 -669 -669 -669

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
93

Table 27—Observed and projected mechanical pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 337 442 378 680 331 396 337 412 345 289

Nigeria 330 463 397 719 379 428 394 443 403 326

South Africa 337 390 436 736 375 419 400 448 385 309

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 337 390 343 633 318 361 320 376 324 255

Mexico 382 442 403 703 366 417 371 431 378 302

United States of America 364 421 360 792 337 512 336 501 318 250

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 390 390 358 628 313 357 318 355 325 230

Brazil 337 451 376 657 337 386 342 401 349 278

Chile 337 455 379 632 346 361 349 376 355 254

ASIA

China 364 421 371 671 345 397 348 412 354 288

India 364 1155 368 675 342 398 345 412 349 301

Indonesia 364 421 368 665 342 394 346 409 352 287

Japan 364 421 358 654 332 383 334 398 344 277

Korea, Republic of 364 421 362 656 338 365 342 399 347 288

Malaysia 337 421 363 643 331 370 336 386 343 265

OCEANIA

Australia 337 421 381 636 335 385 337 379 344 258

New Zealand 337 390 339 646 313 369 316 383 320 272

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 364 421 360 758 332 403 335 422 342 266

Finland 337 390 342 631 314 362 319 376 328 255

France 364 421 366 654 333 383 337 380 343 261

Germany 364 421 354 702 325 402 329 407 333 264

Italy 364 421 362 669 340 396 342 411 346 288

Russian Federation 337 390 349 633 315 362 320 376 326 254

Spain 337 421 377 817 347 442 347 462 357 308

Sweden 337 390 359 631 327 374 332 374 338 254

United Kingdom 364 421 378 671 348 397 348 411 356 288

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 406 349 339 646 313 369 316 383 320 272

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
94

Table 28—Observed and projected chemical pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 532 598 565 855 521 604 525 617 536 499

Nigeria 543 592 665 881 598 603 606 624 619 495

South Africa 469 512 585 871 521 585 548 612 533 488

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 469 512 480 778 449 537 451 549 457 439

Mexico 507 553 539 820 494 577 500 589 508 476

United States of America 469 553 526 920 495 666 495 657 471 436

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 469 512 508 798 456 555 461 554 470 442

Brazil 469 512 500 779 456 537 462 550 471 440

Chile 469 512 501 779 460 537 466 550 472 441

ASIA

China 507 553 539 818 496 577 500 589 511 476

India 507 553 539 818 496 577 501 589 514 476

Indonesia 507 512 539 809 491 561 502 575 510 465

Japan 507 553 527 796 496 554 500 567 511 459

Korea, Republic of 507 553 539 800 496 553 500 589 511 476

Malaysia 507 553 539 797 496 546 500 564 511 456

OCEANIA

Australia 507 553 521 778 459 553 463 548 472 441

New Zealand 469 512 502 789 471 542 475 552 480 454

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 507 553 501 778 467 533 472 546 480 437

Finland 469 512 478 778 442 537 449 549 460 438

France 507 553 531 798 489 554 495 551 501 446

Germany 507 553 539 818 496 577 500 586 510 438

Italy 507 553 539 818 496 577 500 589 511 476

Russian Federation 469 512 504 779 465 537 470 550 478 440

Spain 469 512 495 793 458 551 459 564 471 465

Sweden 469 512 499 778 459 547 464 549 472 437

United Kingdom 508 638 539 818 496 577 500 589 511 476

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 565 481 499 778 456 537 460 549 471 436

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
95

Table 29—Observed and projected other fiber pulp prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 1083 1247 1135 1089 989 895 1051 937 1110 967

Nigeria

South Africa 920 1062 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 994 1147 1058 919 826 740 915 779 1059 806

Mexico 920 1147 979 919 829 740 883 779 980 806

United States of America 920 1062 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 920 1227 1132 966 856 569 931 703 1133 949

Brazil 920 1147 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

Chile

ASIA

China 994 1147 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

India 994 1148 1004 839 826 611 909 713 1004 816

Indonesia 921 1062 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

Japan 994 1147 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

Korea, Republic of 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

Malaysia 920 1147 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

OCEANIA

Australia 920 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

New Zealand

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 921 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

Finland 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

France 994 1062 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

Germany 994 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

Italy 994 1147 1056 658 905 589 960 532 1059 709

Russian Federation 920 1143 1079 980 887 1041 928 1144 958

Spain 920 1062 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

Sweden 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

United Kingdom 1058 998 905 819 962 858 1059 885

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 1096 979 979 919 826 740 883 779 980 806

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
96

Table 30—Observed and projected waste paper prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 150 162 184 298 190 195 178 229 174 291

Nigeria 150 0 108 298 101 195 106 229 109 309

South Africa 138 124 138 250 105 154 130 186 138 260

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 138 149 178 275 150 179 157 211 180 285

Mexico 138 149 178 269 150 179 157 210 180 260

United States of America 115 124 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 148 159 190 288 161 190 168 223 192 298

Brazil 138 149 209 275 150 179 166 211 210 285

Chile 149 161 192 296 162 193 170 227 194 306

ASIA

China 138 149 178 250 139 154 154 186 180 260

India 138 140 178 275 150 179 157 211 180 285

Indonesia 126 149 178 256 150 154 157 186 180 263

Japan 138 124 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

Korea, Republic of 138 149 159 272 138 179 136 209 155 260

Malaysia 115 149 178 275 150 179 157 211 181 285

OCEANIA

Australia 115 124 153 250 127 154 132 186 155 260

New Zealand 115 124 175 250 130 154 144 186 162 267

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 138 149 178 275 150 179 157 211 180 285

Finland 138 124 178 275 150 179 157 211 180 285

France 138 124 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

Germany 115 124 173 250 134 154 143 187 155 285

Italy 138 124 153 250 132 154 132 186 155 260

Russian Federation 115 124 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

Spain 138 149 178 250 150 179 157 186 180 260

Sweden 138 149 178 275 150 179 157 211 180 285

United Kingdom 115 124 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 138 119 153 250 125 154 132 186 155 260

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
97

Table 31—Observed and projected mechanical pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 352 465 1041 1451 741 919 919 1413 1048 1533

Egypt 8 2 15 85 17 80 12 88 16 62

Nigeria 0 16 48 113 40 73 43 120 48 150

South Africa 285 348 708 750 505 457 648 772 713 801

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 15968 15389 19814 12772 16600 10157 17768 11301 18655 17426

Canada 9968 11262 15109 8092 12146 6082 13272 7397 13662 12392

Mexico 56 50 398 1297 335 1022 321 1020 395 1060

United States of America 5935 4042 4176 2920 4014 2715 4066 2470 4470 3493

SOUTH AMERICA 671 1122 1411 1343 1144 946 1165 1115 1358 1399

Argentina 39 66 216 364 148 236 159 279 217 378

Brazil 412 500 564 526 423 351 450 414 566 564

Chile 179 515 499 168 474 146 448 159 443 161

ASIA 3491 4330 12408 31675 9562 21912 10486 23699 12324 28370

China 512 874 5155 17216 3722 11797 4264 12911 5160 13701

India 185 4 278 1304 195 661 210 884 279 1123

Indonesia 91 455 672 1381 462 769 540 920 673 1428

Japan 2235 1677 2840 4918 2704 4575 2627 4113 2848 5208

Korea, Republic of 165 883 1571 2399 1195 1501 1342 1737 1503 2375

Malaysia 12 11 92 504 62 338 74 372 89 543

OCEANIA 823 975 1289 1109 1095 1030 1121 927 1189 1200

Australia 459 377 759 987 712 952 698 845 706 1092

New Zealand 364 595 524 116 379 75 418 79 477 103

EUROPE 13073 20638 24668 24738 20337 21764 21506 21449 23697 30281

EU-25 10206 17153 21335 22140 17676 19699 18607 19162 20369 27376

Austria 539 855 888 557 681 464 740 489 811 690

Finland 3140 6016 6196 2671 4505 2417 5077 2472 5672 6188

France 957 648 1565 2838 1477 2575 1446 2506 1510 3024

Germany 1554 2967 4952 5720 4290 5429 4492 5142 4835 6733

Italy 451 483 950 1782 900 1635 885 1522 939 1852

Russian Federation 1366 1300 1206 641 820 410 952 482 1211 634

Spain 102 167 609 1458 584 1357 565 1269 593 1538

Sweden 2349 3386 2037 483 1636 198 1790 250 1946 493

United Kingdom 626 424 1313 3160 1235 2916 1182 2674 1288 3314

DEVELOPED, ALL 32345 38976 48875 42691 40862 36727 43309 37247 46662 53545

DEVELOPING, ALL 2032 3943 11755 30397 8617 20001 9656 22656 11609 26664

WORLD 34377 42919 60630 73088 49479 56728 52965 59903 58270 80209

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
98

Table 32—Observed and projected chemical pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in 

the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 1339 1552 1981 2777 1510 1778 1752 2633 1995 2877

Egypt 53 59 103 273 157 241 103 270 109 216

Nigeria 9 15 58 304 55 194 58 318 59 372

South Africa 966 1133 1002 879 713 533 917 893 1009 920

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 55496 50655 46891 30306 43794 27305 44299 25465 51103 36270

Canada 4172 3106 5138 4242 3942 2872 4431 3588 4935 6171

Mexico 649 1208 1293 1398 1156 1150 1140 1133 1276 1162

United States of America 50641 46267 40313 24470 38581 23142 38603 20567 44747 28735

SOUTH AMERICA 4605 6295 7788 6073 5810 4237 6189 4966 7811 6447

Argentina 554 505 1016 1011 724 677 772 792 1022 1054

Brazil 3138 4809 5502 3822 4101 2605 4364 3047 5526 4126

Chile 181 333 302 228 248 176 258 213 292 232

ASIA 18965 30059 38388 40041 30811 28323 33190 30682 38358 37181

China 2490 9415 14476 17478 11105 12364 12419 13544 14527 14249

India 783 391 1356 1998 917 1028 1085 1409 1357 1849

Indonesia 1160 2362 2843 2669 2029 1519 2318 1806 2854 2769

Japan 11646 11247 10329 7725 9809 7105 9530 6391 10353 8004

Korea, Republic of 1679 2993 2772 2046 2026 1146 2373 1469 2746 2127

Malaysia 90 302 461 901 319 621 375 681 448 989

OCEANIA 1071 1403 1958 1447 1755 1331 1751 1228 1780 1604

Australia 763 1164 1596 1247 1493 1190 1461 1080 1450 1400

New Zealand 308 233 352 189 254 133 282 140 321 193

EUROPE 31178 39221 41853 30775 34207 25291 36227 26615 40908 36386

EU-25 25791 33932 35680 25444 29920 21694 31231 22238 34721 30783

Austria 1271 1675 1381 531 1012 442 1111 465 1274 660

Finland 4248 5678 6340 3018 4531 2696 5096 2825 5941 6875

France 3407 3125 3655 3017 3434 2712 3378 2661 3485 3190

Germany 4259 5212 5224 3714 4610 3501 4695 3286 5225 4226

Italy 2465 3507 3454 2695 3279 2460 3217 2291 3434 2786

Russian Federation 4025 3404 3880 3095 2571 1982 3014 2371 3897 3217

Spain 1321 1798 2118 1764 2030 1636 1968 1531 2079 1860

Sweden 4595 6018 3813 1220 3087 787 3369 877 3677 1227

United Kingdom 1856 1184 2477 2782 2316 2583 2229 2374 2441 2940

DEVELOPED, ALL 99761 102564 101005 70025 89303 60583 91793 59663 104131 82323

DEVELOPING, ALL 12892 26622 37853 41393 28583 27681 31614 31926 37824 38442

WORLD 112653 129185 138858 111418 117886 88264 123407 91588 141955 120765

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
99

Table 33—Observed and projected mechanical pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -17 -19 -55 -133 -45 -84 -50 -138 -55 -170

Egypt 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nigeria 0 -16 -48 -113 -40 -73 -43 -120 -48 -150

South Africa 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 189 10 -59 -484 -48 -183 -36 -359 -41 174

Canada 244 101 25 7 35 62 27 89 25 45

Mexico -17 -10 -74 -463 -74 -201 -74 -439 -74 -40

United States of America -37 -81 -6 -21 -6 -44 13 -8 10 170

SOUTH AMERICA 3 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Argentina -6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Brazil 9 -3 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

Chile 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ASIA -571 -556 -1079 -3271 -862 -1389 -996 -2787 -1096 -1909

China -77 -84 -370 -1088 -370 -155 -370 -1172 -370 -180

India -22 -4 -278 -1304 -195 -661 -210 -884 -279 -1123

Indonesia -42 -153 -165 -39 -32 -7 -147 -38 -177 -63

Japan -374 -256 -62 -9 -91 -13 -79 -11 -64 -9

Korea, Republic of -4 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0

Malaysia 0 -4 -8 -1 -5 -1 -6 -1 -7 -1

OCEANIA 318 217 1314 5024 1122 1479 1188 3288 1311 1707

Australia 0 -6 -21 -37 -6 -3 -3 0 -6 -1

New Zealand 318 223 1335 5062 1128 1482 1191 3288 1317 1707

EUROPE -27 58 -242 -1258 -288 57 -228 -125 -240 76

EU-25 -195 -176 -396 -1285 -396 -434 -383 -976 -394 -694

Austria -7 -5 -10 -34 -7 -2 -4 -2 -10 -2

Finland 30 25 5 2 5 37 5 37 5 5

France -35 -33 -16 -51 -9 -1 -10 -1 -14 -2

Germany -93 -78 -10 -8 -10 -4 -10 -1 -10 5

Italy -109 -110 -36 -5 -55 -8 -45 -7 -37 -5

Russian Federation 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Spain 6 -12 -71 -471 -71 -133 -71 -442 -71 -471

Sweden 176 103 25 8 25 4 26 34 25 17

United Kingdom -130 -61 -239 -583 -239 -311 -239 -495 -239 -226

DEVELOPED, ALL 101 23 969 3577 729 1450 877 3126 986 1838

DEVELOPING, ALL -206 -318 -1090 -3698 -850 -1571 -998 -3247 -1107 -1959

WORLD -105 -295 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
100

Table 34—Observed and projected chemical pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 222 303 1 -619 45 -246 51 -463 -4 -479

Egypt -53 -59 -103 -273 -157 -241 -103 -270 -109 -216

Nigeria -2 -1 -3 -11 -3 -7 -3 -7 -3 -7

South Africa 165 173 120 -175 148 -73 120 -175 120 -175

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 9309 6843 13232 15181 13381 12015 14361 11665 13841 19268

Canada 8205 8495 14112 17180 14112 19590 14112 18334 14112 12677

Mexico -369 -1066 -601 -1241 -467 -563 -476 -965 -539 -377

United States of America 1487 -539 -194 -662 -194 -6942 802 -5619 354 7049

SOUTH AMERICA 2503 8253 6204 3043 6494 3652 6191 3392 7279 3929

Argentina 37 131 174 104 281 163 241 141 239 140

Brazil 1612 5841 4771 2635 4944 2836 4726 2610 5807 3200

Chile 1318 2638 1786 975 1643 898 1661 907 1795 980

ASIA -6042 -10706 -19008 -20592 -18641 -16893 -19678 -19418 -21062 -22199

China -963 -7045 -13182 -16542 -10639 -12226 -11916 -13459 -13537 -14092

India -119 -366 -816 -984 -747 -873 -831 -1266 -834 -1543

Indonesia -310 2253 1187 384 1319 708 1218 421 1298 688

Japan -2479 -1675 -1124 -249 -3718 -949 -2820 -952 -2397 -1110

Korea, Republic of -1516 -2216 -2126 -693 -1870 -839 -2182 -1150 -2334 -2052

Malaysia -49 -243 -223 -138 -117 -28 -172 -62 -172 -45

OCEANIA 89 155 165 230 166 123 166 123 165 123

Australia -203 -316 -104 -40 -104 -25 -104 -25 -104 -23

New Zealand 292 474 274 273 274 150 274 150 274 150

EUROPE -4904 -4332 -1658 1694 -2509 285 -2153 3637 -1282 -1706

EU-25 -5655 -5727 -2723 712 -3407 -611 -3025 2788 -2302 -2538

Austria -268 -385 -46 52 -46 74 -46 52 -46 33

Finland 1123 2268 3510 6373 3362 6050 3510 6136 3510 2730

France -1605 -1571 -582 -674 -625 -105 -580 -65 -581 -65

Germany -3468 -3741 -2362 -3714 -2744 -2808 -2727 -842 -2297 -469

Italy -2380 -3461 -3402 -2468 -3265 -2453 -3201 -2283 -3399 -2778

Russian Federation 801 1734 1078 591 1078 602 1078 591 1078 591

Spain 88 124 479 341 327 345 458 371 414 305

Sweden 2470 2448 3190 5324 2866 1593 2697 2536 3579 1982

United Kingdom -1730 -1184 -2477 -2782 -2316 -2583 -2229 -2374 -2441 -2940

DEVELOPED, ALL 2476 2154 11157 17693 7801 11827 10015 15114 10820 16522

DEVELOPING, ALL -1299 -1638 -12220 -18756 -8864 -12891 -11078 -16178 -11883 -17586

WORLD 1177 516 -1063 -1063 -1063 -1064 -1063 -1064 -1063 -1063

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
101

Table 35—Observed and projected other fiber pulp consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries 

in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 253 282 424 888 492 679 443 828 421 789

Egypt 120 159 231 627 347 514 268 584 227 526

Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

South Africa 87 94 138 123 100 76 127 125 139 128

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 426 356 352 308 369 300 358 265 350 250

Canada 46 51 54 37 39 21 45 28 54 47

Mexico 238 133 131 173 170 191 150 151 127 99

United States of America 82 154 139 56 135 55 136 50 142 63

SOUTH AMERICA 553 400 529 582 390 409 414 470 531 603

Argentina 112 132 253 276 181 186 193 218 255 291

Brazil 127 73 111 122 81 81 86 96 112 131

Chile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ASIA 15367 16836 25267 30113 18184 19186 20965 22317 25243 24831

China 13395 13368 18645 21035 13573 14327 15419 15616 18676 16138

India 1109 2009 3879 4877 2593 2525 3163 3490 3881 4614

Indonesia 115 104 62 48 49 28 52 33 62 51

Japan 33 95 102 79 98 75 95 67 103 86

Korea, Republic of 4 10 8 10 6 6 7 7 8 10

Malaysia 1 4 6 28 6 24 6 25 6 36

OCEANIA 11 3 14 137 14 59 13 130 11 8

Australia 9 1 5 7 4 7 4 6 5 8

New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EUROPE 388 341 446 479 409 419 406 410 446 506

EU-25 347 331 420 433 388 383 383 374 420 465

Austria 1 9 10 5 7 4 8 4 9 7

Finland 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

France 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Germany 37 24 29 34 26 32 26 30 30 37

Italy 100 190 198 161 189 148 184 138 199 170

Russian Federation 0 3 4 6 2 4 3 5 4 7

Spain 93 0 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

Sweden 0 7 4 2 3 1 3 1 5 2

United Kingdom 27 43 103 126 95 119 92 110 102 136

DEVELOPED, ALL 647 738 884 782 784 653 814 685 888 837

DEVELOPING, ALL 16352 17480 26148 31726 19074 20399 21784 23735 26114 26149

WORLD 16999 18218 27032 32507 19858 21052 22598 24420 27002 26987

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
102

Table 36—Observed and projected waste paper consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in 

the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 986 1776 4804 12401 3624 7907 4273 11529 4780 12615

Egypt 63 235 620 2307 639 1758 600 2032 585 2079

Nigeria 11 1 56 822 53 512 56 851 57 964

South Africa 455 1130 2563 4355 1827 2637 2346 4401 2579 4520

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 21603 39083 68995 108090 62077 95223 63313 92220 74666 136999

Canada 1942 3678 13203 23261 10569 18685 11571 22001 12299 40124

Mexico 1863 3969 7035 11012 5262 7637 5526 8617 6989 10462

United States of America 17681 31132 47458 70704 45249 66664 45142 58870 54118 83295

SOUTH AMERICA 2168 2372 9187 18357 6871 12800 7293 15014 9153 19181

Argentina 269 736 1810 3339 1269 2205 1357 2587 1816 3456

Brazil 1173 329 4357 9596 3234 6511 3442 7608 4377 10224

Chile 71 264 842 1362 727 1078 731 1274 792 1367

ASIA 24580 78380 132740 241301 98876 160383 110546 177659 132047 210493

China 3393 45107 74323 136204 52521 91120 60507 99629 74346 106178

India 408 1723 5748 15733 3923 8060 4545 10945 5752 14142

Indonesia 867 3722 6885 11703 4668 6569 5518 7849 6898 12037

Japan 14027 14163 19230 25139 18255 23001 17742 20712 19267 25806

Korea, Republic of 3624 6089 9414 11833 7000 6917 8110 8493 9196 11905

Malaysia 481 753 1916 3759 1283 2284 1525 2624 1805 3777

OCEANIA 834 1562 4023 5438 3600 4891 3576 4590 3542 6052

Australia 756 1473 3363 4426 3123 4173 3047 3835 2938 5008

New Zealand 77 84 645 974 467 691 517 726 589 1007

EUROPE 25522 46319 79892 114254 67725 95484 70973 99284 77038 132152

EU-25 24054 41964 70504 95499 60959 82573 63173 83609 67645 111770

Austria 1144 2336 2734 2380 2140 1969 2314 2067 2488 2690

Finland 870 853 5989 8113 4347 7156 4896 7677 5504 18061

France 3168 5470 8379 11401 7729 9760 7745 10075 7618 11576

Germany 6738 12608 18231 20018 15544 19121 16566 18307 17580 24418

Italy 2907 5155 7269 9690 6890 8779 6771 8185 7202 9864

Russian Federation 360 2396 4802 9934 3247 6342 3774 7560 4820 10155

Spain 1893 4865 5734 7253 5524 6651 5346 6230 5573 7507

Sweden 1233 1934 3844 3537 3213 2547 3460 2772 3675 3540

United Kingdom 2592 3455 7495 11951 7100 10785 6800 9921 7378 12276

DEVELOPED, ALL 60559 98156 166902 244467 147641 212202 151803 210897 169334 293263

DEVELOPING, ALL 15134 71336 132739 255373 95131 164486 108171 189399 131891 224229

WORLD 75693 169491 299640 499840 242772 376688 259974 400296 301225 517491

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
103

Table 37—Observed and projected other fiber pulp net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -58 -24 86 -47 -39 22 32 -79 85 -15

Egypt -73 -39 0 -218 -138 -160 -50 -219 0 -151

Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

South Africa 12 9 69 164 83 169 65 129 69 132

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 99 63 223 423 134 321 172 380 225 414

Canada -6 -11 -3 20 3 27 0 22 -4 5

Mexico 2 -17 61 94 0 36 28 85 65 143

United States of America 105 91 166 318 134 263 146 281 164 275

SOUTH AMERICA -1 -4 172 398 211 379 221 372 169 309

Argentina 0 -1 -30 0 0 0 0 0 -31 -18

Brazil 0 -3 16 54 31 68 31 59 16 29

Chile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ASIA -114 -77 -464 -726 -289 -691 -424 -648 -463 -623

China -26 -22 -411 -822 -295 -767 -376 -729 -416 -305

India -10 -13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Indonesia 1 1 128 233 84 152 101 167 128 164

Japan -29 -35 -29 -5 -45 -24 -35 -12 -30 -27

Korea, Republic of -4 -10 -8 -10 -6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -10

Malaysia 0 -3 -4 -26 -4 -22 -4 -23 -4 -34

OCEANIA 0 -1 -5 -7 -4 -7 -4 -6 -5 -8

Australia 0 -1 -5 -7 -4 -7 -4 -6 -5 -8

New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EUROPE -45 -59 -98 -128 -101 -109 -83 -105 -98 -164

EU-25 -35 -53 -90 -109 -95 -96 -77 -92 -90 -147

Austria 0 -9 -9 -3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -8 -5

Finland -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2

France -9 56 70 81 62 69 65 71 70 73

Germany -5 -24 -29 -34 -26 -32 -26 -30 -30 -37

Italy -14 -9 0 0 -12 0 0 0 0 0

Russian Federation 2 -3 -4 -6 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -7

Spain 6 14 13 14 11 12 12 13 13 12

Sweden 0 -7 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 -5 -2

United Kingdom -27 -43 -102 -124 -94 -118 -91 -108 -101 -135

DEVELOPED, ALL 37 14 130 400 93 344 115 337 127 244

DEVELOPING, ALL -156 -116 -217 -486 -180 -431 -202 -424 -214 -331

WORLD -119 -102 -87 -87 -87 -87 -87 -87 -87 -87

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
104

Table 38—Observed and projected waste paper net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -56 -41 -55 -1674 112 -1204 84 -1901 -53 -1632

Egypt -3 -8 0 -174 0 -368 -1 -396 0 0

Nigeria -1 -1 0 -442 0 -263 0 -556 0 -571

South Africa -13 18 246 476 315 374 312 444 246 485

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 4210 12746 13533 -1266 5497 1753 7907 -2291 8550 -26683

Canada -464 -1028 -9438 -15600 -7398 -13697 -8256 -16127 -8505 -32189

Mexico -1001 -1703 -2461 0 -1409 -298 -1498 0 -2380 188

United States of America 5724 15470 25658 15109 14465 16402 17832 14652 19641 6043

SOUTH AMERICA -320 -270 -1628 -1679 -1072 -1892 -1055 -2139 -1551 -1936

Argentina -33 -37 -349 0 -38 0 -68 0 -345 0

Brazil -18 -11 -578 -1672 -515 -1352 -437 -1533 -578 -2018

Chile -3 -46 -291 -55 -262 -226 -245 -272 -237 -14

ASIA -4985 -23351 -16508 -1836 -7237 -3543 -10257 2697 -15215 37645

China -1591 -20511 -10417 20013 -2802 5136 -5348 16483 -9958 56159

India -252 -1722 -5748 -15733 -3923 -8060 -4545 -10945 -5752 -14142

Indonesia -866 -2067 -2644 0 -1095 454 -1783 540 -2625 0

Japan -405 3815 7394 6378 3488 6196 5188 5915 7590 6820

Korea, Republic of -1503 -1086 -126 0 -116 -337 -122 0 -126 261

Malaysia 49 -189 -505 -504 -97 -164 -282 -129 -376 -406

OCEANIA 77 1146 618 738 179 925 396 815 1085 381

Australia 33 906 580 722 136 803 348 616 1039 365

New Zealand 44 242 33 0 37 112 42 187 41 0

EUROPE -1373 7578 3215 4893 1697 3135 2100 1995 6360 -8600

EU-25 -1537 7148 3104 6752 644 4856 1527 4422 6184 -5672

Austria -510 -901 -855 -260 -557 -9 -659 -154 -594 -497

Finland -91 163 -4617 -6436 -2989 -5569 -3562 -6117 -4122 -16323

France -409 952 1274 1438 154 2365 569 1031 2119 1813

Germany 1179 225 71 1151 55 606 137 0 494 -2471

Italy -720 423 758 2424 25 875 142 2199 895 2655

Russian Federation 31 189 830 461 1352 142 1076 296 862 555

Spain -492 -732 -553 1504 -1159 -74 -783 595 -353 1562

Sweden -333 -599 -1999 -1669 -1659 -823 -1835 -986 -1827 -1617

United Kingdom 171 3856 4102 3078 2371 3338 3188 3123 4321 3332

DEVELOPED, ALL 3508 26868 27273 10921 12408 12653 17216 6850 26039 -28123

DEVELOPING, ALL -5955 -29060 -28099 -11746 -13233 -13478 -18041 -7675 -26864 27298

WORLD -2447 -2192 -825 -825 -825 -825 -825 -825 -825 -825

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
105

Table 39—Observed and projected newsprint prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global Forest Products 

Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 602 660 551 612 504 458 515 486 532 503

Nigeria 613 686 545 625 514 467 525 499 534 515

South Africa 546 606 516 581 469 424 496 455 495 468

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 546 606 480 556 451 408 456 435 466 452

Mexico 573 636 511 573 479 427 484 455 504 454

United States of America 573 636 508 602 479 436 484 463 493 467

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 659 731 564 582 517 432 527 459 553 484

Brazil 573 636 523 584 475 441 484 467 503 486

Chile 546 606 482 570 451 418 456 446 469 466

ASIA

China 573 636 488 465 444 352 460 382 487 438

India 630 700 587 595 522 454 545 494 584 540

Indonesia 541 606 507 562 472 412 481 438 500 458

Japan 573 636 510 567 480 424 485 450 504 470

Korea, Republic of 573 606 473 556 449 406 450 435 465 440

Malaysia 573 636 523 579 483 436 493 463 516 480

OCEANIA

Australia 573 636 502 550 466 411 470 431 488 449

New Zealand 546 606 488 556 454 408 462 435 471 459

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 546 606 490 585 461 428 466 455 483 468

Finland 546 606 486 568 456 425 462 451 477 468

France 573 606 495 563 463 419 469 440 486 459

Germany 573 636 503 559 465 407 472 431 483 457

Italy 573 636 508 568 479 423 484 449 494 472

Russian Federation 546 606 488 548 454 405 461 432 478 449

Spain 573 636 507 556 476 424 481 434 494 459

Sweden 546 606 505 582 472 442 478 465 494 482

United Kingdom 568 644 492 536 461 397 466 424 487 448

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 659 535 480 556 451 408 456 435 466 452

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
106

Table 40—Observed and projected printing and writing paper prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global 

Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 1194 1102 964 949 913 783 935 816 952 846

Nigeria 1194 1099 964 898 926 707 935 743 952 714

South Africa 995 863 780 836 731 652 758 682 758 662

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 939 863 750 804 716 642 724 663 738 653

Mexico 995 915 805 855 767 691 775 714 793 704

United States of America 995 915 784 875 757 711 758 722 751 659

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 1164 1071 924 872 839 693 858 726 906 754

Brazil 939 863 784 833 732 674 743 697 766 686

Chile 995 915 801 855 767 693 775 714 789 704

ASIA

China 995 863 822 838 761 684 779 708 813 708

India 939 1096 952 860 863 702 899 745 946 782

Indonesia 937 863 787 830 744 666 756 689 772 682

Japan 939 915 776 806 748 643 753 665 769 653

Korea, Republic of 935 859 761 827 728 661 732 692 746 669

Malaysia 995 915 801 855 767 679 775 708 789 701

OCEANIA

Australia 995 913 780 802 740 646 743 659 757 645

New Zealand 995 915 801 855 767 693 775 714 789 704

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 939 859 750 835 716 652 724 675 738 653

Finland 939 863 750 804 716 642 724 663 738 653

France 995 915 777 808 746 643 750 658 763 645

Germany 995 860 759 821 724 651 730 671 739 656

Italy 995 915 785 813 755 653 758 673 775 663

Russian Federation 1144 1046 807 784 771 625 778 647 790 634

Spain 995 915 785 842 755 668 758 679 775 660

Sweden 939 861 750 804 716 647 724 663 738 653

United Kingdom 979 912 800 817 767 655 771 677 789 664

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 1133 857 750 804 716 642 724 663 738 653

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
107

Table 41—Observed and projected other paper and paperboard prices (1997$/mt) for selected countries in the Global 

Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA

Egypt 971 1032 866 792 826 671 837 705 849 751

Nigeria 928 982 828 765 788 629 800 661 811 695

South Africa 796 846 725 713 677 585 705 616 708 650

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA

Canada 796 846 694 693 666 569 671 595 684 637

Mexico 844 897 725 680 692 571 699 600 722 625

United States of America 796 846 707 730 678 608 681 629 687 640

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 971 1032 797 728 758 602 766 628 788 661

Brazil 796 846 731 721 679 600 690 627 717 660

Chile 844 846 724 739 689 612 696 641 713 678

ASIA

China 844 897 774 724 714 609 735 638 773 685

India 1013 1073 875 736 788 617 825 662 876 739

Indonesia 790 846 724 707 689 578 697 605 718 641

Japan 796 897 722 700 694 578 699 604 718 639

Korea, Republic of 796 846 696 709 666 585 671 614 687 632

Malaysia 844 897 732 678 695 567 705 595 733 644

OCEANIA

Australia 796 846 704 694 666 576 672 598 687 635

New Zealand 844 846 704 692 666 570 677 595 687 637

EUROPE

EU-25

Austria 796 846 701 715 668 584 677 611 690 640

Finland 796 846 701 709 666 588 677 614 687 646

France 844 846 700 692 666 569 676 590 690 627

Germany 844 846 704 693 666 563 677 590 687 637

Italy 844 897 728 702 701 581 702 607 722 642

Russian Federation 796 846 710 706 674 584 682 611 698 644

Spain 844 897 730 706 701 595 705 603 726 636

Sweden 796 846 704 717 672 599 677 623 690 656

United Kingdom 844 910 715 685 686 563 691 590 711 626

DEVELOPED, ALL

DEVELOPING, ALL

WORLD 971 788 704 692 666 561 677 590 687 637

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
108

Table 42—Observed and projected newsprint consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 518 869 1773 3416 1157 1891 1428 3051 1787 3575

Egypt 117 127 332 616 216 371 239 464 335 648

Nigeria 18 37 107 231 66 119 85 222 108 242

South Africa 214 302 425 562 270 293 377 572 429 594

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 12970 10322 10353 8800 9543 7888 9217 7084 10425 9353

Canada 267 469 589 623 557 573 549 507 593 656

Mexico 422 485 760 1012 487 575 537 741 763 1073

United States of America 12156 9077 8472 6353 8131 6209 7714 5132 8535 6774

SOUTH AMERICA 1013 1203 1988 2680 1314 1642 1441 2057 2002 2809

Argentina 302 253 402 513 263 302 284 371 404 537

Brazil 297 544 845 1122 547 644 595 799 853 1174

Chile 58 74 138 174 96 120 108 160 139 183

ASIA 7708 13702 27279 41079 18193 23271 21917 28526 27336 42391

China 1050 4204 9508 14589 6074 8808 7539 10167 9512 14808

India 566 1590 4036 7582 2284 3233 3190 5140 4041 7771

Indonesia 112 296 819 1355 474 635 605 806 821 1426

Japan 3707 3889 4079 3887 3834 3471 3693 3034 4089 4076

Korea, Republic of 813 1029 1859 1902 1081 867 1442 1217 1868 2020

Malaysia 223 337 800 990 492 514 622 649 803 1037

OCEANIA 672 848 1090 1185 1035 1116 1029 963 1097 1246

Australia 569 685 918 995 879 944 865 801 924 1046

New Zealand 101 152 139 151 136 151 139 136 141 159

EUROPE 9183 12394 14832 16063 12764 12926 13072 13251 14916 16870

EU-25 7712 10769 12335 12860 11215 11026 11144 10663 12406 13504

Austria 354 267 273 256 258 229 258 222 274 271

Finland 113 154 193 178 185 164 184 160 194 186

France 742 905 990 996 942 911 899 809 995 1049

Germany 2058 2613 2750 2674 2610 2412 2551 2184 2777 2813

Italy 578 832 824 786 776 696 752 631 830 823

Russian Federation 854 698 1263 1693 693 930 881 1191 1269 1780

Spain 454 486 656 669 624 602 606 553 660 702

Sweden 519 783 768 711 731 642 759 670 772 746

United Kingdom 1877 2451 2801 2928 2656 2674 2552 2406 2808 3062

DEVELOPED, ALL 26306 27211 29875 29220 26829 24890 26715 23879 30049 30788

DEVELOPING, ALL 5758 12127 27440 44002 17178 23843 21389 31052 27514 45455

WORLD 32064 39338 57315 73222 44007 48733 48104 54931 57563 76243

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
109

Table 43—Observed and projected printing and writing paper consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 958 1709 3648 7665 2569 4892 3032 6999 3671 8191

Egypt 228 325 785 1726 563 1180 607 1398 789 1801

Nigeria 65 139 385 974 265 599 323 967 386 1055

South Africa 417 714 1034 1699 730 1056 946 1771 1045 1852

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 25438 32859 37371 39957 35223 37451 34296 34340 37867 43954

Canada 2133 2482 4151 5765 3993 5523 3943 5026 4173 6224

Mexico 698 2289 3162 5234 2250 3448 2421 4197 3179 5622

United States of America 22168 27708 29281 27485 28406 27407 27301 23780 29736 30529

SOUTH AMERICA 1821 3751 6723 11227 4897 7760 5243 9229 6773 12011

Argentina 293 547 1339 2203 979 1499 1037 1747 1349 2321

Brazil 952 2049 3584 5917 2572 3938 2743 4645 3614 6352

Chile 72 184 298 476 225 363 247 455 299 512

ASIA 20533 36547 73450 127878 55218 89262 62590 99622 73744 136152

China 6387 17067 38623 70246 27557 48516 32529 54385 38781 74700

India 1056 1649 4580 10305 2982 5432 3841 7744 4589 10661

Indonesia 578 0 1225 2402 807 1363 972 1638 1233 2582

Japan 9440 10158 13808 17743 13184 16696 12803 15028 13853 19174

Korea, Republic of 988 1316 2119 2861 1400 1588 1747 2060 2134 3096

Malaysia 324 1588 2835 4414 1945 2737 2335 3268 2849 4748

OCEANIA 799 1722 2533 3600 2452 3528 2438 3149 2558 3891

Australia 681 1482 2138 3039 2077 2987 2052 2634 2161 3288

New Zealand 112 227 347 490 341 497 346 460 348 526

EUROPE 21865 32509 46252 64522 41817 56796 42295 57000 46541 69808

EU-25 20200 29793 41548 57126 38387 51525 38350 50535 41803 61829

Austria 168 439 539 676 519 640 517 624 542 740

Finland 684 236 599 747 581 720 578 707 602 807

France 3345 4414 6277 8452 6050 8089 5833 7390 6317 9175

Germany 5594 6980 9159 11782 8814 11139 8660 10317 9247 12800

Italy 2787 3700 4913 6331 4704 5899 4592 5471 4937 6823

Russian Federation 862 754 1456 2505 916 1611 1104 1952 1467 2705

Spain 1460 2560 3062 4088 2953 3894 2887 3642 3076 4471

Sweden 442 139 101 126 97 119 100 124 101 136

United Kingdom 3263 4912 6987 9673 6725 9225 6521 8505 7021 10436

DEVELOPED, ALL 56953 75652 97748 121999 91048 111767 90249 106709 98599 132751

DEVELOPING, ALL 14461 33445 72230 132851 51127 87923 59645 103629 72555 141256

WORLD 71414 109097 169978 254850 142175 199689 149894 210338 171154 274006

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
110

Table 44—Observed and projected other paper and paperboard consumption (thousand mt) for world regions and 

selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 2488 3900 7627 12224 5431 7676 6457 10990 7659 12455

Egypt 340 705 1390 2426 1005 1637 1083 1931 1396 2455

Nigeria 30 151 348 682 243 412 294 656 350 697

South Africa 1095 1633 3075 4116 2190 2503 2814 4119 3091 4204

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 50491 65107 79347 94474 74185 86497 72438 78973 79768 97085

Canada 2952 3933 5024 5709 4810 5297 4761 4845 5040 5819

Mexico 2136 5475 8283 11257 5949 7288 6386 8800 8290 11474

United States of America 44723 54411 63619 73866 61619 71298 59313 62113 64011 76110

SOUTH AMERICA 5516 6408 12749 17343 9359 11866 10000 13999 12793 17683

Argentina 737 1264 1950 2540 1415 1697 1502 1975 1955 2595

Brazil 2799 2351 6453 8643 4668 5672 4970 6652 6482 8817

Chile 326 749 1189 1535 905 1150 992 1425 1193 1566

ASIA 41748 92295 152650 217208 112763 146636 129286 164532 152779 220332

China 15554 50578 90033 131913 64675 89769 75894 100275 90050 133594

India 1168 2065 4611 8133 3030 4279 3873 6033 4610 8126

Indonesia 1255 3777 7971 12586 5311 7095 6359 8471 7986 12868

Japan 15157 15917 17410 18295 16596 16647 16147 15086 17430 18677

Korea, Republic of 3610 5994 9173 10155 6141 5587 7593 7197 9199 10425

Malaysia 932 1370 2232 2874 1551 1747 1848 2077 2231 2907

OCEANIA 1658 2271 2843 3280 2737 3107 2730 2800 2858 3345

Australia 1269 1797 2237 2567 2164 2443 2139 2164 2249 2619

New Zealand 385 439 526 608 517 600 524 557 529 620

EUROPE 38327 57409 66523 77121 58208 63652 60047 66088 66721 78754

EU-25 32746 49474 54793 61501 50366 53459 50592 53073 54953 62806

Austria 880 1685 1672 1739 1606 1583 1602 1548 1678 1784

Finland 642 1304 1165 1191 1126 1108 1121 1091 1170 1217

France 4946 5639 6371 6967 6134 6453 5917 5913 6390 7124

Germany 8245 11797 11658 12392 11201 11353 11003 10547 11720 12632

Italy 4406 7162 7861 8280 7506 7479 7340 6967 7876 8449

Russian Federation 3831 4504 6930 9343 4433 5914 5301 7120 6955 9539

Spain 2965 5945 5803 6402 5582 5854 5462 5504 5811 6555

Sweden 1147 1303 1462 1496 1407 1373 1448 1418 1468 1527

United Kingdom 4675 4825 5910 6645 5670 6146 5507 5692 5917 6780

DEVELOPED, ALL 104239 136131 159341 183559 146737 163244 146465 156001 160001 188106

DEVELOPING, ALL 35988 91260 162398 238092 115947 156189 134492 181380 162576 241548

WORLD 140226 227391 321739 421650 262683 319433 280957 337381 322577 429654

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
111

Table 45—Observed and projected newsprint net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected countries in the 

Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -36 -351 -692 -1436 -562 -953 -608 -1236 -694 -1476

Egypt -73 -127 -257 -612 -216 -371 -232 -464 -257 -622

Nigeria -5 -24 -48 -117 -39 -86 -50 -121 -49 -116

South Africa 116 41 26 10 26 10 26 10 26 10

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 2691 1890 6936 6722 3531 3278 5728 6493 8069 13231

Canada 8664 6653 13305 11268 9861 9852 11379 12179 10896 15053

Mexico -133 -214 -385 -183 -238 -128 -344 -237 -385 -487

United States of America -5732 -4337 -5653 -3961 -5872 -6209 -5053 -5132 -2104 -903

SOUTH AMERICA -341 -544 -723 -1687 -119 -687 -299 -1032 -867 -1430

Argentina -96 -70 -32 -13 -32 -13 -32 -13 -32 -13

Brazil -71 -409 -468 -999 -168 -335 -198 -484 -486 -651

Chile 103 260 351 141 473 201 366 147 230 92

ASIA -2290 -2012 -4499 -2937 -2540 -1375 -4076 -3302 -4790 -8000

China -460 -375 -382 -1 -311 81 -354 10 -442 -107

India -246 -968 -1593 -1165 -431 -173 -1593 -1489 -1593 -3872

Indonesia 57 261 114 46 114 46 114 46 106 20

Japan -452 -118 -612 -245 -657 -351 -613 -320 -612 -914

Korea, Republic of -200 583 542 1309 820 1583 594 1155 345 874

Malaysia -223 -87 -329 -319 -329 -424 -329 -489 -329 -691

OCEANIA 111 -55 104 188 -6 12 -1 26 45 27

Australia -165 -270 -149 -60 -153 -61 -157 -63 -153 -61

New Zealand 278 215 259 239 146 59 159 77 204 82

EUROPE 162 950 -1070 -794 -247 -219 -688 -892 -1706 -2297

EU-25 -643 -622 -1607 -1154 -1074 -706 -1329 -1047 -2202 -2293

Austria 41 157 75 23 75 30 75 30 75 30

Finland 1144 431 217 87 215 86 216 87 217 87

France -72 205 101 41 101 41 101 41 101 41

Germany -836 -248 -99 34 -99 132 -99 86 -99 -40

Italy -477 -613 -559 -224 -587 -270 -506 -203 -697 -544

Russian Federation 89 1295 633 626 694 541 686 502 633 343

Spain -334 -106 -224 -8 -146 -59 -208 -54 -460 -262

Sweden 1605 1758 877 352 877 301 877 318 877 278

United Kingdom -1177 -1359 -736 -201 -681 -210 -748 -237 -880 -343

DEVELOPED, ALL 2763 2900 5717 5945 2866 2805 4765 5467 6158 10413

DEVELOPING, ALL -2466 -3022 -5661 -5889 -2809 -2749 -4709 -5410 -6101 -10357

WORLD 297 -122 56 56 56 56 57 57 57 56

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
112

Table 46—Observed and projected printing and writing paper net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -435 -691 -1974 -2349 -928 -1033 -1397 -1693 -1941 -2828

Egypt -170 -225 -696 -552 -95 -20 -391 -126 -662 -1012

Nigeria -65 -138 -383 -383 -264 -196 -322 -330 -384 -257

South Africa -82 99 28 6 28 6 29 6 28 6

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA -977 -4199 1402 5747 328 1242 2512 4367 1398 8500

Canada 1434 3632 5834 9713 3287 3519 4504 6892 5889 13519

Mexico -153 -864 -1921 -2623 -639 -565 -996 -1920 -1975 -4129

United States of America -1887 -6620 -1895 -735 -1895 -1277 -515 -55 -1895 -237

SOUTH AMERICA 125 -292 -976 -1810 -676 -1237 -736 -1567 -965 -2001

Argentina -96 -155 -39 -8 -39 -8 -39 -8 -39 -8

Brazil 442 503 172 36 172 36 179 37 172 36

Chile -72 -184 -298 -476 -225 -363 -247 -455 -299 -512

ASIA -1554 478 -9634 -10281 -3700 -5118 -6753 -7053 -9598 -27328

China -856 470 -3731 -2868 -56 -12 -2042 -1184 -3731 -18683

India 4 -118 -69 -14 -34 -7 -46 -10 -75 -16

Indonesia 157 2724 788 164 813 169 740 154 797 166

Japan 170 -239 -110 4 -110 -23 -110 -23 -110 4

Korea, Republic of 53 1442 453 94 445 92 418 87 451 94

Malaysia -123 -1452 -2573 -2441 -1674 -1082 -2068 -1529 -2579 -2261

OCEANIA -478 -1059 -664 -611 -669 -602 -681 -570 -666 -597

Australia -377 -819 -269 -50 -294 -61 -295 -55 -269 6

New Zealand -95 -227 -347 -490 -341 -497 -346 -460 -348 -526

EUROPE 2819 7746 13994 11452 7794 8897 9205 8666 13921 26402

EU-25 2872 8080 14604 10776 8062 7931 9682 8186 14530 25810

Austria 1378 2181 2308 673 1413 485 1649 572 2108 1170

Finland 4295 8922 12547 10181 8494 9210 9571 9364 12327 24872

France -397 -1223 -333 -69 -340 -71 -336 20 -333 171

Germany -421 1371 1071 223 394 82 457 95 1224 272

Italy -390 -537 -164 -34 -171 -36 -166 -35 -164 -34

Russian Federation -17 -151 -21 37 -21 37 -21 37 -21 80

Spain -610 -967 -270 -56 -310 -64 -313 -65 -272 -57

Sweden 1363 3274 3513 1868 2336 486 2793 723 3815 1925

United Kingdom -1672 -3655 -2446 -509 -2531 -526 -2459 -511 -2534 -527

DEVELOPED, ALL 1914 3322 16985 19579 8302 10353 12274 14664 16969 38833

DEVELOPING, ALL -2414 -1339 -14837 -17431 -6154 -8204 -10125 -12515 -14820 -36684

WORLD -500 1983 2148 2149 2148 2149 2149 2149 2148 2149

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
113

Table 47—Observed and projected other paper and paperboard net trade (thousand mt) for world regions and selected 

countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA -524 -1114 -1705 -1178 -964 -643 -1133 -931 -1808 -1268

Egypt -197 -345 -564 -142 -274 -69 -296 -74 -643 -238

Nigeria -22 -133 -245 -89 -122 -31 -171 -43 -246 -65

South Africa 40 126 99 25 99 25 99 25 99 25

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 4183 2536 5413 3308 4502 3369 6057 4410 12225 28188

Canada 1135 1020 5134 3941 4621 3904 4651 4755 4931 19952

Mexico -145 -1605 -602 -141 -498 -125 -479 -120 -651 -137

United States of America 3732 4077 1989 427 1185 255 2783 640 9102 9373

SOUTH AMERICA -51 -47 -91 -83 -9 -48 3 -55 -122 -83

Argentina -163 -294 -101 -25 -101 -25 -101 -25 -101 -25

Brazil 494 796 276 69 287 72 307 77 276 69

Chile -61 19 1 -11 1 -11 1 -11 1 0

ASIA -2816 -6287 -22495 -13955 -16197 -12056 -20917 -16047 -23564 -48796

China -1626 -2418 -18293 -12780 -14646 -11309 -18293 -15148 -18293 -47041

India -20 -33 -16 -4 -17 -4 -14 -3 -16 -4

Indonesia 105 192 55 14 55 14 55 14 55 14

Japan 302 -148 -40 -10 -40 -10 -40 -10 -40 -10

Korea, Republic of 241 341 366 646 885 223 678 476 199 613

Malaysia -497 -687 -448 -99 -277 -70 -389 -98 -587 -148

OCEANIA -34 447 1723 683 1226 399 1258 667 954 1325

Australia 13 346 1143 455 936 333 878 529 463 927

New Zealand -43 135 656 328 343 127 445 213 568 499

EUROPE 419 3515 15881 9951 10167 7702 13458 10683 11040 19360

EU-25 4 3178 14827 9305 9103 7088 12414 10017 10025 17023

Austria 431 484 479 280 210 56 340 181 210 254

Finland 2274 3093 5515 2105 3989 1591 4757 2210 4231 5519

France -873 67 1193 1702 693 347 1080 1809 94 1087

Germany -1426 148 5837 3748 3232 4265 4953 4780 4714 8593

Italy -864 -533 -248 -62 -248 -62 -248 -62 -248 -62

Russian Federation 146 336 125 31 249 63 173 44 125 150

Spain -487 -1020 -303 -76 -316 -79 -310 -78 -303 73

Sweden 3302 4809 3609 907 2962 745 3178 799 2897 873

United Kingdom -1806 -1724 -510 333 -518 -130 -511 -59 -510 146

DEVELOPED, ALL 5413 8765 24526 14953 17154 12246 22087 16715 25753 49901

DEVELOPING, ALL -4236 -9716 -25801 -16227 -18429 -13521 -23362 -17990 -27029 -51175

WORLD 1177 -951 -1275 -1275 -1275 -1275 -1275 -1274 -1275 -1274

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
114

Table 48—Observed and projected value added to wood and fiber input in forest industries (million 1997$) for world 

regions and selected countries in the Global Forest Products Model1

Observed Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Scenario A1BLow Fuelwood

1992 2006 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

AFRICA 2190 3354 5426 9510 4269 7292 4889 9298 5450 10370

Egypt 85 216 503 1581 557 1235 500 1422 487 1479

Nigeria 165 18 95 862 89 587 96 898 97 1004

South Africa 891 1694 2308 2667 1651 1749 2114 2836 2326 2946

NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 75808 99318 108239 102096 97172 75687 101048 81589 114539 127746

Canada 9782 19232 25313 26068 21234 26472 22180 26777 23472 33070

Mexico 1754 3878 5080 5646 4322 4953 4233 4510 5112 6064

United States of America 63849 75433 76573 68497 70601 42829 73554 48601 84701 86664

SOUTH AMERICA 6070 15085 18998 20995 16185 20310 16621 21046 19742 24968

Argentina 759 1552 2395 2628 1864 1854 1923 2135 2462 2847

Brazil 3482 8803 11613 12610 10090 13305 10330 13151 12325 16002

Chile 664 2505 2262 2155 2095 2074 2097 2218 2243 2304

ASIA 46381 116149 145313 180137 109543 126402 120737 138433 143098 169561

China 3870 54491 74152 99035 53715 69835 60454 76063 73979 87886

India 4925 5118 8526 12539 6012 7086 7238 9453 8553 12466

Indonesia 4169 6715 7406 8153 5416 4925 6132 5679 7463 8619

Japan 23665 24747 23614 20947 21038 19012 20776 17250 22595 20797

Korea, Republic of 3750 7999 9008 8456 6409 4824 7402 5977 8555 8116

Malaysia 1714 3808 3054 3723 2389 2624 2659 2877 3019 3968

OCEANIA 2376 4561 5752 5746 5196 4881 5244 4815 5409 5893

Australia 1590 2597 3831 3818 3595 3698 3550 3403 3561 4487

New Zealand 733 1938 1879 1865 1569 1131 1660 1356 1810 1340

EUROPE 63837 106127 112359 112033 95352 107124 99211 105603 109398 125951

EU-25 49535 90043 95107 93073 82224 91554 84717 88693 92190 105161

Austria 3086 5152 4114 2707 3291 2850 3486 2509 3755 3175

Finland 5933 11101 12829 9606 9788 10072 10671 9482 11856 16352

France 6527 9230 10425 9547 9763 8821 9681 8791 9860 10361

Germany 12711 21915 21089 15896 18375 15195 19115 15055 20719 19664

Italy 4394 7545 7584 7257 6993 6572 6726 5893 7353 7138

Russian Federation 10010 8653 9038 9583 6698 7478 7352 7693 9101 10364

Spain 2647 6502 6498 6195 6022 5851 5892 5477 6288 6635

Sweden 4951 9427 7378 7402 6852 12172 7210 9189 7771 6650

United Kingdom 3578 4703 7207 8462 6613 7793 6428 7245 6910 8548

DEVELOPED, ALL 164502 232137 246698 237173 215639 202955 223719 206969 248655 276713

DEVELOPING, ALL 32160 112455 149389 193344 112078 138743 124031 153816 148981 187777

WORLD 196662 344593 396087 430517 327717 341697 347750 360784 397637 464490

1Observations derived from FAO (2009), projections obtained with the Global Forest Products Model.
115

APPENDIX A 

Global Forest Products Model formulation

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) has a static phase 

that computes the spatial economic equilibrium among the 

forest sectors of countries in a given year, and a dynamic 

phase that describes the changes in the conditions of this 

equilibrium over time.

Spatial global equilibrium

For each projected year, the GFPM computes a spatial 

equilibrium by maximizing the consumers and producers 

surplus: 

 Dik Sik

max Z = Σ Σ ∫ Pik (Dik) dDik - Σ Σ ∫ Pik (Sik) dSik

 i k 0 i k 0

 Yik [1]

 - Σ Σ ∫ mik (Yik) dYik - Σ Σ ∫ cijk Tijk

 i k 0 i j k

where: i,j = country, k = product, P = price in U.S. dollars of 

constant value, D = final product demand, S = raw material 

supply, Y = quantity manufactured, m = manufacturing cost, 

T = quantity transported, and c = cost of transportation, 

including tariff. All variables refer to a specific year. 

End-product demand

 Pik Dik = D*

ik ( ——— )δik [2] Pik-1

where: D* = current demand at last year’s price, P-1 = last 

year’s price, and δ= price elasticity of demand. As shown in 

the section on market dynamics, below, D* depends on last 

year’s demand, and the growth of GDP in the country. In the 

base year, D* is equal to the observed base-year consumption, 

and P-1 is equal to the observed base-year price.

Primary product supply

 Pik Sik = Sik ( ——— )λik [3] Pik-1

where: S* = current supply at last year’s price, and λ = price 

elasticity of supply. As shown in the section on market 

dynamics, below, S* depend on last year’s supply, and on 

exogenous or endogenous supply shifters. In the base year, 

S* is equal to the base-year supply, and P-1 is equal to the 

observed base year price.

Total forest drain

Si = (Sir + Sin - Θi Sif ) μI [4]

r = industrial roundwood,

n = other industrial roundwood,

f = fuelwood,

0 ≤ Θ ≤ 1 = fraction of fuelwood that comes from the forest,

μ ≥ 1 = ratio of drain to harvest.

Si ≤ Ii

Ii = forest stock.

Material balance

For each product and country, demand equals supply. 

Σ Tjik + Sik + Yik - Dik - Σ aikn Yin - Σ Tijk Yin = 0 i, k [5]

where: aikn = input of product k per unit of product n.

Trade Inertia constraints are used to dampen the annual 

changes in trade: 

TL

ijk ≤ Tjik ≤ T Uijk [6]

where the superscripts L and U refer to a lower bound, and 

upper bound, respectively.

Prices

The shadow prices of the material balance constraints [5] give 

the market-clearing prices for each commodity and country.

Manufacturing cost

Manufacturing is represented by activity analysis, with 

input-output coefficients and a manufacturing cost. The 

manufacturing cost is the marginal cost of the inputs not 

recognized explicitly by the model (labor, energy, capital, etc.);

 Yik

m = m*

ik ( ——— )sik [7] Yik-1

where: m* = current manufacturing cost, at last year’s output, 

and s = elasticity of manufacturing cost with respect to output.

As shown in the next section, m* depend on last year’s 

manufacturing cost, and on the exogenous rate of change 

of manufacturing cost. In the base year, m* is equal to the 

observed base-year manufacturing cost and Yik,-1 is equal to 

the observed base-year quantity manufactured.

Transport cost

The transport cost per unit of volume for commodity k from 

country i to country j in any given year is given by:

Cijk = fijk + t I

jk ( fijk + Pijk ) [8]

where: c = transport cost, per unit of volume, f = freight cost, 

per unit of volume, tI = import ad-valorem tariff, and P-1 is 

equal to the previous year world export price.
116

Market dynamics

Unless otherwise indicated, the following variables refer to 

one country, one commodity, and one year. 

Demand shifts

D* = D-1 (1 + ay gy + a0) [9]

gy = GDP annual growth rate, ay = elasticity with respect to 

GDP, a0 = annual trend.

Supply shifts

The supply of fuelwood and industrial roundwood shifts over 

time with the changes in growing stock:

S* = S-1 (1 + βI gI) for k = r, n, f [10]

where: gI = annual rate of change of forest stock (endogenous, 

see below), and β = elasticity.

The supply of waste paper and other fiber pulp shifts with 

GDP growth: 

S* = S-1 (1 + βy gy) [11]

Changes in forest area and forest stock

A = (1 + ga) A-1 [12]

where: A = forest area, and ga = annual rate of forest area 

change equation [9] and the annual rate of forest area change, 

ga defined by:

ga = a0 + a1 y’ + a2 y’2 for y’ < = y’*, else ga = 0 [13]

Where, for each country, α0 is calibrated so that in the base 

year the observed ga is equal to the ga, predicted by [15] given 

the income per capita y’. 

y’ = income per capita, predicted from:

y’ = (1 + gy’) y’-1 [14]

y’* is defined by ga = a0 + a1 y’* =+ a2 y’*2 = 0 [15]

 and y’*>-a1∕2a2

Forest stock evolves over time according to a growth-drain 

equation:

I = I-1 + G-1 − S-1 [16]

where G = ( ga + gu ) I is the periodic change of forest stock 

without harvest, gu= periodic rate of forest growth on a given 

area, without harvest1. 

The annual rate of forest growth, gu, is defined by:

 I

gu = γ0 ( —— )σ [17] A

where σ is negative, so that gu decreases with stock per unit 

area. For each country, γ0 is calibrated so that in the base year 

the observed gu is equal to the gu predicted by [17] given the 

stock per unit area, I/A.

1 The forest stock, I, is: It

 = Ut At where At is the area and Ut is the stock per 

unit area (stock density). Without harvest, the stock annual growth rate is dI 

/ I = dU / U + dA / or gI = gu + ga. Thus, the level of stock, without harvest, 

changes according to It = It-1 (1 + gI) = It-1 (1 + gu + ga). With a harvest St-1

from t-1 to t this becomes It = It-1 (1 + gu + ga) − St-1. With the above notations, 

It-1 (1 + gu + ga) = Gt-1 the change in forest stock without harvest, which leads 

to equation [18].

The annual rate of change of forest stock net of harvest, used 

in equation [10] is then:

 I − I-1 gI = ——— [18] I-1

Changes in manufacturing coefficients and costs

The input-output coefficients a in equation [5], may change 

exogenously over time, for example to reflect increasing use of 

recycled paper in paper manufacturing:

a = a-1 + ∆a [19]

where ∆a = annual change in input-output coefficient.

The manufacturing cost function shifts exogenously over 

time:

m* = m-1 (1 + gm) [20]

where gm = the exogenous rate of annual change in 

manufacturing cost.

Changes in transport cost

The transport cost function [8] shifts exogenously over time 

according to the recursion:

c* = c-1 + ∆f + t I ( f + P-1) − t I

-1 ( f-1 + P-2)

with:

f = f-1 + ∆f, t = t-1 + ∆t [21]

where Δf and Δt are periodic changes in freight cost and 

taxes, respectively.

Changes in trade inertia bounds

TL = T-1 ( 1 − ε ) p [22]

T U = T-1 ( 1 + ε ) p

ε = absolute value of maximum annual relative change in trade 

flow (exogenous).

Linear approximation of demand, supply, 

and manufacturing cost

For example, consider a demand equation such as [2]. 

Omitting the subscripts for region and product, the inverse 

demand equation in any given year is:

 D

P = P-1 ( —— )1/σ

 D*

The linear approximation is:

 P-1 P = a + bD with a = P-1 − bD* and b = —— for D* ≥ 1, else σD*

 P-1 b = —— for D* ≥ 1, and a = P-1 [23] σ

b = 0 if σ = 0. The same method is used for the supply, and the 

manufacturing cost equations.
117

APPENDIX B 

Gross Domestic Product growth assumptions

The national population projections were taken directly 

from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

(IPCC) scenarios. National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

projections were obtained by first predicting national GDP 

per capita and then multiplying by national population, except 

for the United States for which future GDP growth rates 

were established separately (USDA Forest Service, 2012). 

Wanted was GDP per capita from 2006 to 2060 for each of the 

other 179 countries used in the GFPM. Given were the GDP 

per capita of each country in 2006, and the GDP per capita 

projections of the IPCC for each scenario A1B, A2 and B2. 

The main assumption was that the GDP per capita of the 

different countries would converge during the period 2006 to 

2060 (Sala-i-Martin 2006). Specifically by the year 2100, that 

is 40 years after the time horizon of the study, the GDP per 

capita of all the countries within a region would be the same, 

and equal to the average regional GDP per capita predicted by 

each IPCC scenario.

A secondary assumption was that the ratio of the GDP per 

capita of a particular country to the GDP per capita of its 

region would evolve from its observed value in 2060 to the 

assumed value of 1.0 in 2100 according to a logarithmic 

difference equation described below.

Figure B1 shows the projections from 2006 to 2100 for 

selected countries of Asia, for scenario A1B. Only the years 

2006 to 2060 were used in this study. 

Algebraically, let yit be GDP per capita in country i and year 

t, yRt the GDP per capita in region R in year t,ε, t=0 the base 

year, 2006, T=2100-2006 the number of years from the base to 

the horizon.

The initial ratio of country to region GDP per capita was:

 yi0 ri0 = —— yR0

Logarithmic convergence of this ratio was obtained by:

 riT ri0 = ri,t-1 (——)1/T for t = 1 to T, ri0

where riT was the target ratio at the horizon, riT was equal to 1 

in this application.

Then:

yit = rit yRt for t = 1 to T.

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

GDP ($/capita)

ASIA China Korea, Rep India

Figure B1 —Projection of GDP per capita in China, the Republic of Korea, 

and India, given the IPCC projection of GDP per capita for Asia.
118

APPENDIX C

Fuelwood demand assumptions

For fuelwood demand the objective was to match the fuelwood 

consumption from 2006 to 2060 projected with the Global 

Forest Products Model (GPFM) for each of the 180 countries, 

and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 

assumptions regarding the future world demand for biofuels. 

Given were the fuelwood consumption of each country 

in 2006, the assumptions on GDP growth by country 

(see Appendix B), and the IPCC projections of biofuel 

consumption in scenarios A1B, A2 and B2. 

It was assumed that from 2006 to 2060 the world fuelwood 

consumption would grow by the same factor as the world 

biofuel demand predicted by the IPCC, i.e., approximately 5.5 

times for scenario A1B, 2.7 times for scenario A2 and 2.9 times 

for scenario B2. Another assumption was that the international 

fuelwood consumption would converge in the sense that by 

2060 the ratio of national to world fuelwood consumption was 

equal to the ratio of national GDP to world GDP.

These assumptions gave the national fuelwood consumptions 

in 2060 and the annual growth rates of demand needed 

from 2006 to 2060 at constant price to achieve this 2060 

consumption. 

This demand growth rate applied to the GFPM led to a world 

consumption that differed from the IPCC level due to the 

endogenous change in prices. This gap was decreased by 

adjusting the national demand growth rates and running the 

GFPM again. This was repeated until the IPCC level of global 

consumption was nearly achieved.

The algebraic procedure can be summarized as follows. The 

goal was fuelwood consumption growing to the same fraction 

of each country’s GDP in 2060.

 ci,60 ∑ cj,60

—— = ——— , i yi,60 ∑ yj,60

Where ci,60 was fuelwood consumption in country i in 2060, 

and yi,60 is the gross domestic computed above. The world 

fuelwood consumption in 2060 was:

∑ cj,60 = g ∑ cj,60

Where g was the growth of biofuel consumption from 2006 to 

2060 predicted by the IPCC. Thus, the fuelwood consumption 

in 2060 for each country was:

 yj,60 ci,60 = —— g ∑ cj,60 ∑ yj,60

An initial estimate of the exogenous annual growth rate of 

fuelwood demand, r0

i

 , to cause a country to reach ci,60 was:

 ci,60 r0

i

 = ( —— ) − 1

 ci,60

Due to the price change, this growth rate led to a consumption 

level in 2060, c0

i,60 , generally different from ci,60. Then, the rate 

of shift of demand was revised to r1

i

 , to achieve the target, ci,60:

 ci,60 r1

i

 = ( —— ) (1 + r0

i

 ) − 1

 ci,60

A new GFPM projection was then computed with the demand 

rate of shift r1

i

. Repeating this gave GFPM projections that 

converged to the target fuelwood consumption levels ci,60.

j

j

j j

j

0

—i

54

—i

54
119

APPENDIX D 

Technical change assumptions

For wood products other than paper and paperboard, 

manufacture is represented in the Global Forest Products 

Model with an input of industrial roundwood and all other 

inputs are covered by the manufacturing cost. 

To minimize the effects of statistical errors, the best current 

technology was deducted from the data of the major producing 

countries only, those that produced more than 5 percent of the 

global output in 2006.

Among these countries, the country with the best 

manufacturing technology, Bk, was the country with the least 

total unit cost of production: pwaBk,k + mBk,k = min (pwaik + mi,k)

Where: pw world price of industrial roundwood in 2006 ai,k m3 of industrial roundwood per m3 of product k for country 

i,

mi,k manufacturing cost excluding wood input per m

3 of 

product k. 

aBk,k best current technology input-output coefficient for 

product k,

mBk,k best current technology manufacturing cost for product k.

This best technology was assumed to improve further by 

2060, to the levels a60,k and m60,k. Then, the input-output 

coefficient and manufacturing cost of each country converged 

from their value in 2006 to these best 2060 values at a 

constant annual rate. 

For paper and paperboard the same procedure was applied, 

with the assumption that the least expensive input, waste 

paper, increased 2006 to 2060 and the most expensive inputs, 

chemical pulp and other fiber pulp decreased from by the same 

proportion, while mechanical pulp compensated to change the 

total fiber input to a common total. i



Buongiorno, Joseph; Zhu, Shushuai; Raunikar, Ronald; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.

2012. Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries: a technical 

document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. SRS-151. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 

Southern Research Station. 119 p.

Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and Fourth 

Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were simulated with 

the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, volume, products demand and 

supply, international trade, prices, and value added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, 

North America, Oceania, South America, and selected countries. Scenario A1B presents 

a 5.5-fold increase in world fuelwood use that leads to high prices of fuelwood and 

industrial roundwood, driven by especially strong demand in Asia for large imports from 

South America and Europe. World roundwood consumption reaches 11.2 billion m3 in 

2060, exceeding the increment of forests, particularly in Asia. Even under scenarios A2 

and B2, the harvest in Asia is unsustainable. However, scenario A1B and a low fuelwood 

demand lead to a global harvest of 3.6 billion m3 only and to a sustainable forest volume. 

The world consumption of manufactured wood products grows modestly under most 

scenarios, with slight changes in prices. Consumption and value added in industries 

increases more rapidly in Asia, due to the fast economic growth of China and India in 

all scenarios. As a result, Asia is a large importer of industrial roundwood from South 

America and Europe and of paper and paperboard from Europe and North America. 

Keywords: Energy, forecasting, Global Forest Products Model, industries, 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, markets, policy.

You may request additional copies of this publication by email at pubrequest@fs.fed.us

How do you rate this publication?

Scan this code to submit your feedback 

or go to www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubeval

The Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), is 

dedicated to the principle of multiple use management of the Nation’s 

forest resources for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife, 

and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation with the States 

and private forest owners, and management of the National Forests and 

National Grasslands, it strives—as directed by Congress—to provide increasingly 

greater service to a growing Nation.

The USDA prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, 

color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial 

status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, 

reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public 

assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with 

disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information 

(Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at 

(202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 

Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 

(voice) or (202) 720-6382 ( TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.
United States Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

Southern Research Station

General Technical Report SRS-151

April 2012