# Appendix M

The Nature of the Fine Particle and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE-VU Region: A Conceptual Description

Prepared for the Ozone Transport Commission Prepared by NESCAUM Boston, MA Final November 2, 2006

## The Nature of the Fine Particle and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE-VU Region: A Conceptual Description

Prepared for the Ozone Transport Commission

Prepared by NESCAUM Boston, MA

Final November 2, 2006

Contributing Authors

Tom Downs, Maine DEP Iyad Kheirbek, NESCAUM Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

Paul Miller, NESCAUM Leah Weiss, NESCAUM

## Acknowledgements

NESCAUM thanks the U.S. EPA’s support of the Mid-Atlantic/Nor theast Visibility Union Regional Organization whose work ha s provided the foundational basis of this report.

NESCAUM also thanks the following people for their comments and input during the development of this report:

John Graham, NESCAUM Kurt Kebschull, Connecticut Depart ment of Environmental Protection Tonalee Key, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Mohammed A. Majeed, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation David Wackter, Connecticut Depart ment of Environmental Protection Susan Wierman, MARAMA Mike Woodman, Maryland Department of the Environment Martha Webster, Maine Departme nt of Environmental Protection Jung-Hun Woo, NESCAUM

ii

### TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. ii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... vii

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1. Background ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2. PM Formation .................................................................................................. 1-2 1.3. PM Impacts on Visibility ................................................................................. 1-3 1.4. PM 2.5 Design Values in the MANE-VU Region .............................................. 1-5 1.5. Regional haze baseline conditions ................................................................... 1-6

2. A Detailed Look at Fine Particle Pollu tion and Regional Haze in The MANE-VU Region .............................................................................................................................. 2 -1 2.1. Chemical composition of particulate matter in the rural MANE-VU region ..2-1 2.2. Rural versus urban chemistry ........................................................................... 2-3 2.3. Geographic considerations and attribution of PM 2.5 /haze contributors ...........2-6 2.4. CAIR Modeling ............................................................................................. 2-11 2.5. Seasonal differences ....................................................................................... 2-13 2.6. Summary ........................................................................................................ 2-18

3. MANE-VU Emission Inventory Charact eristics for Fine Particles ...........................3-1 3.1. Emissions inventory characteristics ................................................................. 3-1 3.1.1. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) ................................................................................ 3-1 3.1.2. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) ....................................................... 3-3 3.1.3. Oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) ........................................................................ 3-4 3.1.4. Primary particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 )........................................... 3-6 3.1.5. Ammonia emissions (NH 3 ).................................................................... 3-10 3.2. Emissions inventory charac teristics outside MANE-VU ..............................3-12

4. What will it take to clean the air? .............................................................................. 4-2 4.1. Meteorological and Pollution Overview of August 8-16, 2002 .......................4-2 4.2. Temporally and spatially resolved PM 2.5 measurements .................................4-7 4.3. Implications for control strategies ................................................................. 4-10 4.4. Conclusion: Simplifying a complex problem ................................................ 4-12 Appendix A: Excerpts from EP A Guidance Document, Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating A ttainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5 , and Regional Haze Appendix B: Monitoring Data fr om Class I sites in MANE-VU Appendix C: Additional Considerations for PM 2.5 Air Quality Management

iii

### FIGURES

Figure 1-1. View of a good visibi lity day (left) and a poor visi bility day (right) at Acadia National Park, Maine in June 2003. ...................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1-2. Schematic of visi bility impairment due to light scattering and absorption (adapted from Malm, 2000). ................................................................................. 1-4 Figure 2-1. Comparison of contributions during differe nt seasons at Lye Brook Wilderness Area on 20% wors t visibility (high PM 2.5 ) days (2000-2003). ..........2-2 Figure 2-2. Comparison of speci es contributions on best a nd worst days at Lye Brook Wilderness Area. ................................................................................................... 2-3 Figure 2-3. New York nonatta inment area (Elizabeth, NJ) compared to an upwind background site (Chester, NJ) ............................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2-4. Boston urban area (Boston, MA) compared to an upwind background site (Quabbin Reservoir, MA) ..................................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2-5. 2002 Seasonal average SO 4 based on IMPROVE and STN data .................2-8 Figure 2-6. 2002 Annual average PM 2.5 , sulfate, nitrate and total carbon for MANE-VU based on IMPROVE (I) and STN (S) data. PM 2.5 mass data are supplemented by measurements from the FRM network (•). ............................................................ 2-8 Figure 2-7. 2002 Annual aver age contribution to PM 2.5 sulfate as determined by multiple analysis methods for four Class I areas spanning MANE-VU and Virginia ......2-10 Figure 2-8. 2002 Annual average mass contribution to PM 2.5 at Brigantine Wilderness in New Jersey (IMPROVE) and sulfate cont ributions as determined by tagged REMSAD model simulations (NESCAUM, 2006) ............................................ 2-11 Figure 2-9. Moving 60-day aver age of fine aerosol mass c oncentrations based on longterm data from two northeastern cities ................................................................ 2-14 Figure 2-10. The 30-day average PM 2.5 concentrations from 8 northeastern cities during 2002..................................................................................................................... 2-15 Figure 2-11. Mean hourly fine aerosol concentrations during 2002 summer months ...2-16 Figure 2-12. Mean hourly fine aerosol concentrations duri ng 2002 winter months ......2-16 Figure 2-13. Summertime at Mt. Washington ............................................................... 2-18 Figure 2-14. Wintertime in Boston ................................................................................ 2-18 Figure 3-1. State level sulfur dioxide emissions ............................................................. 3-2 Figure 3-2. 2002 MANE-VU state SO 2 inventories ....................................................... 3-2 Figure 3-3. 2002 MANE-VU st ate VOC inventories ...................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-4. State level nitrogen oxides emissions .......................................................... 3-5 Figure 3-5. Plot of monitored NO X trends in MANE-VU during 1997-2005 ................3-5 Figure 3-6. 2002 MANE-VU state NO X inventories ....................................................... 3-6 Figure 3-7. State level primary PM 10 emissions .............................................................. 3-8 Figure 3-8. State level primary PM 2.5 emissions ............................................................. 3-8 Figure 3-9. 2002 MANE-VU state primary PM 10 inventories ......................................... 3-9 Figure 3-10. 2002 MANE-VU state primary PM 2.5 inventories ...................................... 3-9 Figure 3-11. State le vel ammonia emissions ................................................................. 3-11 Figure 3-12. 2002 MANE-VU state NH 3 inventories .................................................... 3-11 Figure 4-1. Spatially interpolated maps of fine particle concentrations August 9 – 16, 2002....................................................................................................................... 4-4

ivFigure 4-2. Surface weather maps for August 9-16, 2002 ............................................... 4-5 Figure 4-3. HYSPLIT 72-hour back trajectories for August 9-16, 2002 .........................4-6 Figure 4-4. Hourly average fine aerosol at 8 sites during the August 2002 episode .......4-7 Figure 4-5. 24-hour rolling average fine aero sol at 8 MANE-VU sites during the August 2002 episode ......................................................................................................... 4-8 Figure 4-6. Composite images from NASA’s TERRA Satellite on August 13, 2002 showing fine particle pollution/haze. .................................................................... 4-9 Figure 4-7. NASA MODIS Te rra Satellite Image, Back Trajectories and NO X Inventory

............................................................................................................................... 4-9 Figure B-1. Monitoring Da ta from Acadia NP, ME ...................................................... B-2 Figure B-2. Monitoring Da ta from Brigantine, ME ....................................................... B-3 Figure B-3. Monitoring Da ta from Great Gulf, NH ....................................................... B-4 Figure B-4. Monitoring Data from Lye Brook, VT ....................................................... B-5 Figure B-5. Monitoring Da ta from Moosehorn, ME ..................................................... B-6 Figure B-6. Monitoring Da ta from Washington, DC ..................................................... B-7 Figure B-7. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Acadia NP, ME ......... B-8 Figure B-8. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Brigantine, NJ ........... B-9 Figure B-9. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Great Gulf, NH ........ B-10 Figure B-10. 20% Worst and Best 2000- 2003 Visibility Days at Lye Brook, VT ...... B-11 Figure B-11. 20% Worst and Best 2000- 2003 Visibility Days at Moosehorn, ME .... B-12 Figure B-12. 20% Worst and Best 2000- 2003 Visibility Days at Washington, D.C. .. B-13 Figure B-13. 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Da ys Speciated Contribu tions to Extinction ............................................................................................................................ B-14 Figure B-14. 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Da ys Speciated Contribu tions to Extinction ............................................................................................................................ B-15 Figure C-1. Effects of averaging times (or temporal resolution) on time series information ........................................................................................................... C-2 Figure C-2. Difference in FRM data be tween 10 urban-rural site pairs for 2002 ......... C-4 Figure C-3. Regional PM 2.5 and NO X in 2002 ............................................................... C-6 Figure C-4. PM 2.5 vs. NO X correlation by season .......................................................... C-6

v

### TABLES

Table 1-1. 2004 PM 2.5 Design Value for Nonattainment Areas in MANE-VU .............1-6 Table 1-2. Fine mass and percent c ontribution for 20 percent worst days .....................1-7 Table 1-3. Fine mass and percent c ontribution for 20 percent best days ........................1-7 Table 1-4. Particle extinction and percen t contribution for 20 percent worst days ........1-8 Table 1-5. Particle extinction and percen t contribution for 20 percent best days ...........1-8 Table 1-6. Natural background and baseline calculations for select Class I areas .........1-8 Table 2-1. Upwind states that make a significant contribution to PM 2.5 in each downwind nonattainment county (2001 modeling). ............................................................. 2-12 Table 2-2. Maximum downwind PM 2.5 contribution (μg/m 3 ) for each of the 37 upwind states (2001 data). ............................................................................................... 2-12 Table 3-1. Eastern U.S. RP Os and their state members ................................................ 3-12 Table 3-2. SO 2 emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr) .................................................... 3-13 Table 3-3. NO X emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr) ................................................... 3-13 Table 3-4. VOC emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr) .................................................. 3-13 Table C-1. MANE-VU urban-rural site pair information .............................................. C-3

vi

## Executive Summary

Scientific evidence has established a so lid link between cardiac and respiratory health risks and transient exposure to ambien t fine particle pollution. The same fine particles that are capable of pe netrating deep into the lungs ar e also in the size range that is most efficient at absorbing and scattering visible light, thus impairing visibility. The emission sources, atmospheric chemistry, a nd meteorological phenom ena that influence ambient concentrations of fine particle pol lution can act on scales that range from hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Fine particles are not exclusively a secondary pollutant; primary fine particle pollution from local sources can have a significant effect on ambient concentrations in some locations. Fine particles are al so not exclusively a summertime pollutant. There are important differences between the meteorological and chemical dynamics that are responsible for high fine particle le vels during summer and winter.
In 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protecti on Agency (USEPA) issued a national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less. In 1999, the USEPA followed up with the Regional Haze Rule that enforces a national visibility goal laid out in the Clean Air Act. This will ultimately restore natural visibility to 156 national park s and wilderness areas across the country (called “Class I” areas). To address these Clea n Air Act requirements, states will have to develop State Implementation Plans (SIPs) de tailing their approaches for reducing fine particle pollution to meet th e health-based fine particle NAAQS. They also must develop plans that address the degradati on of visibility that exists in various parts of the Northeast (referred to as the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vi sibility Union (MANE-VU) region). As part of this process, the USEPA urges states to in clude in their SIPs a conceptual description of the pollution problem in their nonattainment and Class I areas. This document provides the conceptual descrip tion of the fine particulate and regional haze problems in the MANE-VU states consistent with the USEPA’s guidance.

Scientific studies of the regional fine particle prob lem have uncovered a rich complexity in the interaction of meteorology and topography with fine particle formation and transport. Large scale high pressure systems covering hundred s of thousands of square miles are the source of classic severe fine particle episodes in the eastern United States, particularly in summer. These large, synoptic scale systems create particularly favorable conditions for the oxi dation of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions to various forms of sulfate which, in turn, serves to form – or is incorporated into – fine particles that are subsequently transported over large distances. These synoptic scal e systems move from west to east across the United States, bri nging air pollution emitted by large coal-fired power plants and other sources located outside MANE-VU into the region. This then adds to the pollution burden within M ANE-VU on days when MANE-VU’s own air pollution sources are themselves contributing to poor air quality. At times, the high pressure systems may stall over the East fo r days, creating particularly intense fine particle episodes. In the winter, temperature inversions o ccur that are effective at concentrating local primary particle emissions at the surf ace overnight and during early morning hours. This pollution can then be mixed into regionally transported particle pollution (aloft) later

viiin the morning when convection is restored. Additionally, the lower temperature in the winter can shift the chemical equilibrium in the atmosphere slightly toward the production of nitrate particle po llution relative to su lfate formation. As a result, nitrate can become a significant fraction of measured fine particle mass in parts of the eastern U.S. during winter months. Primary and secondary emissions of carbon-containing compounds (e.g., diesel exhaust, biogenic organic carbon emissi ons, and anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions) all contribute to a si gnificant presence of carbonaceous aerosol across the MANE-VU region, which can vary from urban to rural locations and on a seasonal basis. In addition, short range po llution transport exists, with primary and precursor particle pollutants pushed by la nd, sea, mountain, and valley breezes that can selectively affect relatively local areas. With the knowledge of the different emission sources, transport scales, and seasonal meteorol ogy in various locations adjacent to and within MANE-VU, a conceptual picture of fine particle pollu tion and its impacts
emerges. The conceptual description that explains elevated regional PM 2.5 peak concentrations in the summer differs significa ntly from that which explains the largely urban peaks observed during winter. On averag e, summertime concentrations of sulfate in the northeastern United States are more than twice that of the next most important fine particle constituent, organic carbon (OC), and more than four times the combined concentration of nitrate and black car bon (BC) constituents. Episodes of high summertime sulfate concentrati ons are consistent with stag nant meteorological flow conditions upwind of the MANE-VU region and the accumulation of airborne sulfate (via atmospheric oxidation of SO 2 ) followed by long-range transport of sulfur emissions from industrialized areas within and outside the region.

National assessments have indicated that in the winter, sulfate levels in urban areas are higher than background sulfate levels across the eastern U.S., indicating that the local urban contribution to winter time sulfate levels is signif icant relative to the regional sulfate contribution from long-range transport. A network analysis for the winter of 2002 suggests that the local enhancement of sulf ate in urban areas of the MANE-VU region ranges from 25 to 40% and that the long-range transport component of PM 2.5 sulfate is still the dominant contributor in most eastern cities.
In the winter, urban OC and sulfate each account for about a th ird of the overall PM 2.5 mass concentration observed in Philadelp hia and New York City. Nitrate also makes a significant contribution to urban PM 2.5 levels observed in the northeastern United States during the winter months. Wintertime concentra tions of OC and nitrate in urban areas can be twice the average regi onal concentrations of these pollutants, indicating the importance of lo cal source contributions. This is likely because winter conditions are more conducive to the formati on of local inversion layers which prevent vertical mixing. Under these conditions, emi ssions from tailpipe, industrial and other local sources become concentrated near the Earth’s surface, adding to background pollution levels associated with regionally transported emissions. From this conceptual description of fine particle pollution formation and transport into and within MANE-VU, air quality pla nners need to develop an understanding of

viiiwhat it will take to clean the air in the M ANE-VU region. Every ai r pollution episode is unique in its specific details. The relative infl uences of the transpor t pathways and local emissions vary by hour, day, and season. The sm aller scale weather patterns that affect pollution accumulation and its transport undersco re the importance of local (in-state) controls for SO 2 , nitrogen oxides (NO X ) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Larger synoptic scale weather pa tterns, and pollution patte rns associated with them, support the need for SO 2 and NO X controls across the broader eastern United States. Studies and characteriza tions of nocturnal low level je ts also support the need for local and regional controls on SO 2 and NO X sources as locally generated and transported pollution can both be entrained in low level jets formed during nighttime hours. The presence of land, sea, mountain, and valley br eezes indicate that there are unique aspects of pollution accumulation and transport that are area-specific and will warrant policy responses at the local and regional leve ls beyond a one-size-fits-all approach. The mix of emission controls is also impor tant. Regional fine particle formation is primarily due to SO 2 , but NO X is also important because of its influence on the chemical equilibrium between sulfate and nitrate pollution during winter. While the effect of reductions in an thropogenic VOCs is less well characterized at this time, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is a major co mponent of fine particles in the region and reductions in anthropogenic sour ces of OC may have a significant effect on fine particle levels in urban nonattainment areas. Th erefore, a combination of localized NO X and VOC reductions in urban cen ters with additional SO 2 and NO X reductions from across a larger region will help to reduce fine part icles and precursor pollutants in nonattainment areas as well improve visibility across the entire MANE-VU region.

ixPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-1



## 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background Fine particle pollution is a persiste nt public health problem in the MidAtlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE- VU) region. Because of its physical structure, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) can bypass conductive airways and deliver exogenous materials, such as reactive organic chem icals that adsorb onto the particle core, into the deep lung. a Studies of particulate matter (PM) in urban areas have found associations of short- (daily ) and long-term (annual and mu ltiyear) exposure to airborne PM as well as PM 2.5 with cardiopulmonary health outcomes. These effects include increased symptoms, hospital admissions and emergency room visits, and premature death (Pope et al. 2004). In addition to health implications, visibi lity impairment in the eastern United States is largely due to the presence of light -absorbing and light-scat tering fine particles in the atmosphere. The United States E nvironmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has identified visibility impairment as the best understood of all environmental effects of air pollution (Watson, 2002). A long-established p hysical and chemical theory relates the interaction of particles and gases in the at mosphere with the transmission of visual information along a sight path from object to observer. The Clean Air Act requires states that have areas designated “nonattainment” of the fine particle national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) to submit State Implementation Plans (SIPs) demonstrating how they plan to attain the fine particle NAAQS. b The Clean Air Act also contains provisions for the restoration and maintenance of visibility in 156 federal Class I areas. c SIPs for dealing with visibility impairment (or regional haze) must include a long-term emissions management strategy aimed at reducing fine particle pollution in these rural areas. As part of the SIP process for both of these air quality issues, the USEPA urges states to include a conceptual descripti on of the pollution problem. The USEPA has provided guidance on developing a conceptual description, which is contained in Chapter 11 of the document “Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for

a PM 2.5 or “fine particles” refer to those particles with a diameter ≤ 2.5 micrometers ( μ m).
b The 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS includes a requirement that the thre e-year average of yearly annual average PM 2.5 design values must be below 15 μg/m 3 and a requirement that the three-year average of the 98 th percentile 24-hour average concentration must be below 65 μg/m 3 . In October 2006, the USEPA acted to change the daily standard (98 th percentile value based on valid 24-hour average concentrations measured at a site) from 65 to 35 μg/m 3

. c The Class I designation applies to national parks exceeding 6,000 acres, wilderness areas and national memorial parks exceeding 5,000 acres, and all international parks that were in existence prior to 1977. In the MANE-VU area, this includes: Acadia National Pa rk, Maine; Brigantine Wilderness (within the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge), New Jersey; Great Gulf Wilderness, New Hampshire; Lye Brook Wilderness, Vermont; Moosehorn Wilderness (within the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge), Maine; Presidential Range – Dry River Wilderness, New Hampshire; and Roosevelt Campobello International Park, New Brunswick.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-2

Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5 , and Regional Haze” (EPA-Draft 3.2, September 2006) (Appendix A of this report reproduces Chapter 11 of the USEPA guidance document). This repo rt provides the MANE- VU states with the basis for their conceptual descriptions, consistent with the USEPA’s guidance. In the guidance, the USEPA recommends addr essing 13 questions related to PM 2.5 and eight questions related to visibility to help define the problem in a nonattainment or Class I area. This report addresses these questions, as well as provides some in-depth data and analyses that can assist stat es in developing conceptual descriptions tailored to their specific areas.



### 1.2. PM Formation Fine particles directly emitted into the atmosphere are called “primary” fine particles, and they come from both natura l and human sources. These fine particles commonly include unburned carbon partic les directly emitted from high-energy processes such as combustion, and particle s emitted as combustion-related vapors that condense within seconds of being exhausted to ambient air. Combustion sources include motor vehicles, power generation facilities, industrial facilities, residential wood burning, agricultural burning, and forest fires. Fine particles are also comprised of “sec ondary” fine particles, which are formed from precursor gases reacting in the atmos phere or through the addition of PM to preexisting particles. Although dire ct nucleation from the gas ph ase is a contributing factor, most secondary material accumulates on pre-existing particles in the 0.1 to 1.0 micrometer (μm) range and typically account for a significant fraction of the fine PM mass. Examples of secondary particle forma tion include the conversion of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) to sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) droplets that further react with ammonia (NH 3 ) to form various sulfate particles (e.g., ammonium sulfate (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 , ammonium bisulfate (NH 4 HSO 4 ), and letovicite ((NH 4 ) 3 H(SO 4 ) 2 ). The dominant source of SO 2 emissions in the eastern U.S. is fossil fuel combustion, primarily at coal-fired power plants and industrial boilers. Si milarly, secondary PM 2.5 is created by the conversion of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) to nitric acid (HNO 3 ) which reacts further with ammonia to form ammonium nitrate (NH 4 NO 3 ) particles. Nitrate partic les are formed from the NO X emitted by power plants, automobiles, industr ial boilers, and other combustion sources. Nitrate production in the northeastern U.S. is ammonia-limited and controlled by the availability of sulfate and temperat ure, especially along the East Coast. d While human sources account for most nitrate precursors in the atmosphere, there are some natural sources, including lightning, biological a nd abiological processes in soils, and stratospheric intrusion. Large sources of am monia arise from major livestock production and fertilizer application throughout the Mi dwest, Gulf Coast, mid-Atlantic, and southeastern United States, in addition to the sources of ammonia associated with human activities. The carbon fraction of fine PM may re fer to black carbon (BC) and primary organic and/or secondary organic carbon (O C). Most black carbon is primary, which is

d Ammonia reacts preferentially with sulfuric acid, and if sufficient exces s ammonia is available, it can then combine with nitric acid to form particulate nitrate.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-3

also sometimes referred to as elemental car bon (EC) or soot. Black carbon is the lightabsorbing carbonaceous material in atmosphe ric particles caused by the combustion of diesel, wood, and other fuels. Organic carbon includes both primary emissions and secondary organic PM in the atmosphere. Secondary organic particles are formed by reactions involving vol atile organic compounds (VOCs) , which yield compounds with low saturation vapor pressures that nucleate or condense on existing particles at ambient temperature. Organic carbon in both the gas and solid phase is emitted by automobiles, trucks, and industrial processes, as well as by many types of vegetation. The relative amounts of organic carbon from different sour ces remain highly uncertain, and data are needed to be able to assess the relative c ontribution of primary versus secondary and anthropogenic versus biogenic production.



### 1.3. PM Impacts on Visibility Under natural atmospheric conditions, the view in the eastern United States would extend about 60 to 80 miles (100 to 130 kilome ters) (Malm, 2000). Unfortunately, views of such clarity have become a rare occurren ce in the East. As a result of man-made pollution, the average visual rang e in the eastern ha lf of the country has diminished to about 15-30 miles, approximately one-third the visual range that would be observed under unpolluted natural conditions. In general, the ability to see distant featur es in a scenic vista is determined less by the amount of light reaching the observer than by the contrast between those features and their surroundings. For example, the illumi nation of a light bulb in a greenhouse is barely discernible on a sunny day but would be highly visible at night. Similarly, a mountain peak is easily seen if it appears relatively dark agai nst the sunlit sky. If, on the other hand, a milky haze “fills” the space betw een the observer and the mountain peak, the contrast between the mount ain and its background is dimi nished as both take on a similar hue ( Figure 1-1 ).

Figure 1-1. View of a good vi sibility day (left) and a poor visibility day (right) at Acadia National Park, Maine in June 2003.

Source: CAMNET, http://www.hazecam.net

In simple terms, this hazy effect occurs when small particle s and certain gaseous molecules in the atmosphere absorb or scat ter visible light, thereby reducing the amount of visual “information” that reaches the observer. This occurs to some extent even under natural conditions, primarily as a result of th e light scattering eff ect of individual airPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-4

molecules (known as Rayleigh scattering e ) and of naturally occurring aerosols. f The substantial visibility impairment cause d by manmade pollution, however, is almost entirely attributable to the increased pres ence of fine particles in the atmosphere. g Figure 1-2 presents a simplified schematic of the way such small particles interact with packets of light or “photons” as they tr avel from a distant object to an observer. Along the way, particles suspended in the air can deflect or scatter some of the photons out of the sight path. Intervening particle s can also absorb photons, similarly removing them from the total amount of light reaching the observer.

Figure 1-2. Schematic of visibility impairment due to light scattering and absorption (adapted from Malm, 2000).

Light from clouds scattered into sight path

Sunlight scattered

Light reflected from ground scattered into sight path Light absorbed

Image-forming light scattered out of sight path

e Because air molecules more effectively scatter light of short wavelengths (i.e., blue light), Rayleigh scattering explains the blue color of the sky.
f Atmospheric aerosol is a more general term for fine particles suspended in the atmosphere and refers to any particle (solid or liquid) that is suspended in the atmosphere.
g The only light-absorbing gaseous pollutant present in the atmosphere at significant concentrations is nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). However, the contribution of NO 2 to overall visibility impacts in the Northeast is negligible and hence its effects are not generally included in this discussion or in standard calculations of visibility impairment.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-5

At the same time, particles in the air can scatter light into th e sight path, further diminishing the quality of the view. The extr aneous light can include direct sunlight and light reflected off the ground or from clouds. Because it is not coming directly from the scenic element, this light cont ains no visual information a bout that element. When the combination of light absorption and light scat tering (both into and out of the sight path) occurs in many directions due to the ubiqu itous presence of small particles in the atmosphere, the result is commonly described as “haze.”



### 1.4. PM 2.5 

### Design Values in the MANE-VU Region SIP developers use monitoring data in several important ways to support SIP activities. This section as well as Section 1.5 present measurements from the FRM and IMPROVE network needed in establishi ng SIP requirements. Following USEPA guidance (40CFR Part 50, Appendix N; US EPA, 2003a; USEPA, 2003b), we use these data to preview the Design Values and Base line Conditions that SIP developers must consider for each nonattainment area and Class I area. The current annual fine particle Nati onal Ambient Air Quality Standard was established in 1997 at 15 μ g/m 3 . To meet this standard, the 3-year average of a site’s annual mean concentration must not be greater than this level. The current daily standard was set at 65 μ g/m 3 at the 98 th percentile level. To meet this standard, the 98 th percentile value (of valid measurements recorded at a site ) must not be greater th an this level. No counties in MANE-VU have been designate d nonattainment for the daily standard, however, the USEPA has revised the NAAQS with respect to the 24-hr average concentrations and states will have to comply with the new standard (35 μ g/m 3 at the 98 th percentile level) within five years of designa tions (expected in 2010). Fine particle data from the USEPA’s Air Quality System (AQS) database for years 2002 through 2004 were used to determine the attainment status of monitoring sites in MANE-VU.

Table 1-1 shows a summary of areas found to exceed the annual standard (no areas exceed the daily standard). As tabul ated, 12 areas fail to achieve the annual standard, with design values ranging from 15.1 to 20.4 μ g/m 3 . The nonattainment areas are concentrated in Pennsylvania and the co astal urban corridor. Sulfates and organic carbon represent the largest contributors to these high fine particle levels.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-6

Table 1-1. 2004 PM 2.5 Design Value for Nonattainment Areas in MANE-VU

State(s) Nonattainment Area 2004 Annual Design Value 2004 24-hr Design Value
MD Baltimore 16.3 41
PA Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle 15.4 41
PA Johnstown 15.3 40
PA Lancaster 16.8 42
PA Liberty-Clairton 20.4 65

MD Martinsburg, WV-Hagerstown 16.1 39
NY-NJ-CT New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island 16.8 50
PA-NJ-DE Philadelphia-Wilmington 15.4 39
PA Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley 16.5 45

PA Reading 16.1 42
DC-MD-VA Washington, DC 15.1 42
PA York 16.9 43



### 1.5. Regional haze baseline conditions The Regional Haze Rule requires states and tribes to submit plans that include calculations of current and estimated baseline and natural visibility conditions. They will use monitoring data from the IMPROVE program as the basis for these calculations. Table 1-2 and Table 1-3 present the five-year average h of the 20 percent worst day mass concentrations and 20 percent best day mass concentrations respectively in six Class I areas. Five of these areas are in MANE-VU and one (Shenandoah) is nearby but located in a neighboring regional plan ning organization (RPO) region. i Table 1-4 and Table 1-5 give the corresponding worst day and best day co ntributions to partic le extinction for the six Class I areas. Each of these tables show the relative percent contribution for all six Class I sites. Sulfate and or ganic carbon dominate the fine ma ss, with sulfate even more important to particle extinction. To guide the states in calculating baselin e values of reconstructed extinction and for estimating natural visibility conditions, the USEPA released two documents in the fall of 2003 outlining recommended procedures (USEPA 2003a; USEPA 2003b). Recently, the IMPROVE Steering Committee endorsed an a lternative method for the calculation of these values. The IMPROVE alternative methods were used, to create Table 1-6 , which provides detail on the uniform vi sibility goals for the 20 percent worst conditions at the six Class 1 areas.

h Great Gulf calculations are based on four years of data (2001-2004).
i Note that values presented for Shenandoah, a Class I area in the Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) region, are fo r comparative purposes only. VISTAS will determine uniform rates of progress for areas within its region.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-7

The first column of data in Table 1-6 gives the alternative proposed natural background levels for the worst visibility days at these six sites. MANE-VU has decided to use this approach, at least initiall y, for 2008 SIP planning purposes (NESCAUM, 2006). The second column shows the baseline visibility conditions on the 20 percent worst visibility days. These values are base d on IMPROVE data from the official fiveyear baseline period (2000- 2004) and again were calcu lated using the IMPROVE alternative approach. Using these baseline and natural back ground estimates, we derive the uniform rate of progress shown in the third column. j The final column displays the interim 2018 progress goal based on 14 year s of improvement at the uniform rate.

Table 1-2. Fine mass and percent contribution for 20 percent worst days
20% Worst-day Fine Mass ( μ g/m 3 )/% contribution to fine mass
Site SO 4 NO 3 OC EC Soil
Acadia 6.3/ 56% 0.8/ 7% 3.2/ 28% 0.4/ 4% 0.5/ 5% Brigantine 11.6/ 56% 1.7/ 8% 5.8/ 28% 0.7/ 3% 1/ 5% Great Gulf 7.3/ 59% 0.4/ 3% 3.8/ 31% 0.4/ 3% 0.6/ 5% Lye Brook 8.5/ 58% 1.1/ 7% 3.9/ 27% 0.5/ 3% 0.6/ 4% Moosehorn 5.7/ 54% 0.7/ 7% 3.4/ 32% 0.4/ 4% 0.4/ 4%
Shenandoah 13.2/ 68% 0.7/ 3% 4.2/ 22% 0.6/ 3% 0.7/ 4%

Table 1-3. Fine mass and percent contribution for 20 percent best days
20% Best-day Fine Mass ( μ g/m 3 )/% contribution to fine mass
Site SO 4 NO 3 OC EC Soil
Acadia 0.8/ 42% 0.1/ 6% 0.8/ 41% 0.1/ 5% 0.1/ 6% Brigantine 1.8/ 43% 0.5/ 11% 1.5/ 35% 0.2/ 6% 0.2/ 5% Great Gulf 0.7/ 43% 0.1/ 7% 0.7/ 40% 0.1/ 5% 0.1/ 6% Lye Brook 0.6/ 44% 0.1/ 11% 0.4/ 33% 0.1/ 5% 0.1/ 7% Moosehorn 0.8/ 37% 0.1/ 6% 1/ 47% 0.1/ 5% 0.1/ 5%
Shenandoah 1.4/ 45% 0.5/ 16% 1/ 29% 0.2/ 5% 0.2/ 5%

j We calculate the rate of progress as (baseline – natu ral background)/60 to yield the annual deciview (dv) improvement needed to reach natural background conditions in 2064, starting from the 2004 baseline.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-8

Table 1-4. Particle extinction and p ercent contribution for 20 percent worst days
20% Worst-day particle extinction (Mm -1 ) /% Contribution to particle extinction

Site SO 4 NO 3 OC EC Soil CM
Acadia 69.2/ 64% 8/ 7% 11.2/ 10% 4.3/ 4% 0.5/ 0% 1.9/ 2% Brigantine 127.1/ 66% 15.7/ 8% 24.2/ 13% 7/ 4% 1/ 1% 5.4/ 3% Great Gulf 76.6/ 68% 3/ 3% 14.4/ 13% 3.9/ 3% 0.6/ 1% 3/ 3% Lye Brook 87.3/ 67% 9.1/ 7% 15.3/ 12% 4.8/ 4% 0.6/ 0% 1.8/ 2% Moosehorn 58.5/ 60% 6.4/ 7% 11.9/ 12% 4.4/ 5% 0.4/ 0% 2.1/ 3%
Shenandoah 155.5/ 79% 5.8/ 3% 16.1/ 8% 5.7/ 3% 0.7/ 0% 2.5/ 1%

Table 1-5. Particle extinction and percen t contribution for 20 percent best days
20% Best-day particle extinction (Mm -1 ) /% Contribution to particle extinction
Site SO 4 NO 3 OC EC Soil CM
Acadia 6.8/ 28% 1.1/ 4% 2.2/ 9% 0.9/ 4% 0.1/ 0% 0.7/ 6% Brigantine 14.8/ 35% 3.9/ 9% 4.5/ 11% 2.4/ 6% 0.2/ 1% 3.2/ 11% Great Gulf 5.8/ 27% 1/ 4% 2/ 9% 0.8/ 4% 0.1/ 0% 0.9/ 8% Lye Brook 4.4/ 23% 1.2/ 6% 1.3/ 7% 0.6/ 3% 0.1/ 0% 0.5/ 6% Moosehorn 6.7/ 26% 1.1/ 4% 3.1/ 12% 1/ 4% 0.1/ 0% 1.1/ 8%
Shenandoah 11.2/ 36% 4.2/ 13% 2.9/ 9% 1.6/ 5% 0.2/ 1% 1.1/ 5%

Table 1-6. Natural background and baseline calculations for select Class I areas

Site 20 % Worst Days Natural Background (dv) 20% Worst Days Baseline

2000- 04(dv) Uniform Rate (dv/yr) Interim Progress Goal 2018 (dv) 20% Best Days Baseline 2000-04(dv)
Acadia 12.54 22.89 0.17 20.47 8.77 Brigantine 12.34 29.01 0.28 25.12 14.33 Great Gulf 12.12 22.82 0.18 20.32 7.66 Lye Brook 11.85 24.44 0.21 21.50 6.37 Moosehorn 12.10 21.72 0.16 19.48 9.15 Dolly Sods 10.45 29.05 0.31 24.71 12.28 James River Face 11.20 29.12 0.30 24.94 14.21
Shenandoah 11.44 29.31 0.30 25.14 10.92PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-9

As demonstrated in Table 1-2 , the inorganic constituents of fine particles, sulfates and nitrates are the dominant contributors to visibility impairment, accounting for about 80 percent of total particle extinction. Within the MANE -VU sites, the relative split between these two components is ~8 to 1 su lfate to nitrate (at Shenandoah, the average 20 percent worst day co ntribution of sulfates is even more dominant). Carbonaceous components account for the bulk of the remain ing particle extinction, ranging from 12 to nearly 20 percent, mostly in the form of organic carbon. The remaining components add little to the extinction budget on the worst days, with a few percent attributable to coarse mass and around a half percent from fine soil.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 1-10



### References

NESCAUM, Baseline and Natural Background Visibili ty Conditions: Considerations and Proposed Approach to the calculation of Baseline and Natural Background Visibility Conditions at MANE-VU Class I areas , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, MA, June 2006.

Pope C.A., R.T. Burnett, G.D. Thurston, et al. “Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution: epidemiological evidence of general pathophysiological pathways of disease.” Circulation 109:71-7, 2004.

Malm, W.C., Introduction to Visibility , Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State Un iversity, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, 2000.

Watson, J., “Visibility: Science and Regulation”, JAWMA 52:628-713, 2002.

USEPA, “Guidance for Tracking Progre ss under the Regional Haze Rule” EPA-454/B03-004 September 2003a. USEPA, “Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions under the Regional Haze Program” EPA-454/B- 03-005 September 2003b.

USEPA. “Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5 , and Regional Haze.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Emissions, Monitoring, and Analysis Division. Draft 3.2- September 2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-1



## 2. A DETAILED LOOK AT FINE PARTICLE POLLUTION AND REGIONAL HAZE IN THE MANE-VU REGION Developing a conceptual descri ption of fine particle pol lution or regional haze requires combining experience and atmospheric-science expertise with multiple data sources and analysis techniques. This incl udes measured data on ambient pollutant concentrations as well as emission inventory and meteorological data, chemical transport modeling, and observationally based models ( NARSTO, 2003). Here, we begin with a conceptual description based on the existing scientific literature and regional data analyses concerning PM 2.5 and its effect on visibility. This includes numerous review articles and reports on the subject. S ubsequent chapters review monitoring data, emissions inventory information, and mode ling results to supp ort the conceptual understanding of regional fine pa rticle pollution presented here. Most past assessments of fine particle pollution and visibility impairment have tended to be national in scope. For purposes of this discussion, we have selectively reviewed the literature in order to present a distinctly eastern U.S. focus. While we already know much about fine particle pollution and visibility impairment and their causes in the MANE-VU region (see NESCAUM, 2001, 2006; NARSTO, 2003; Watson, 2002), significant gaps in understanding remain with respect to the nitrate and organic component of PM 2.5 . While research continues, we have assembled the relevant information that is available to provide an overview of our current understanding of the regional context for PM 2.5 nonattainment and visibility impairment in the MANE-VU region.



### 2.1. Chemical composition of partic ulate matter in the rural MANEVU region Sulfate alone accounts for anywhere from one-half to two-thirds of total fine particle mass on high PM 2.5 days in rural areas of MANE-VU. Even on low PM 2.5 days, sulfate generally accounts for the largest fr action (40 percent or more) of total fine particle mass in the region (NESCAUM , 2001, 2004b). Sulfate accounts for a major fraction of PM 2.5 , not only in the Northeast but across the eastern United States (NARSTO, 2003). After sulfate, organic carbon (OC) consis tently accounts for the next largest fraction of total fine particle mass. Its cont ribution typically ranges from 20 to 30 percent of total fine particle mass on the da ys with the highest levels of PM 2.5 . The fact that the contribution from organic carbon can be as hi gh as 40 percent at the more rural sites on low PM 2.5 days is likely indicative of the ro le played by organic emissions from vegetation (so-called “b iogenic hydrocarbons”).

Relative contributions to overall fi ne particle mass from nitrate (NO 3 ), elemental carbon, and fine soil are all smaller (typically under 10 percent), but the relative ordering among the three species varies with location and season. Figure 2-1 below, reflects the difference between nitrate and organic contributi ons to rural fine particle concentrations during different seasons (monitoring data for additional sites in the MANE-VU region are in Appendix B).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-2

Figure 2-1. Comparison of contribution s during different seasons at Lye Brook Wilderness Area on 20% wo rst visibility (high PM 2.5 ) days (2000-2003).

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 12 days

Summer - 37 days

Spring - 17 days

Fall - 23 days

Almost all particle sulfate orig inates from sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) oxidation and typically associates with ammonium (NH 4 ) in the form of ammonium sulfate ((NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ). Ninety-five percent of SO 2 emissions are from anthropogenic sources (primarily from fossil fuel combustion), while the majority of ammonium comes from agricultural activities and, to a lesser extent, from transportation sources in some areas (NARSTO, 2003). Two major chemical pathways produce sulfate from SO 2 in the atmosphere. In the gas phase, production of sulf ate involves the oxidation of SO 2 to sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ), ammonium bisulfate (NH 4 HSO 4 ), or ammonium sulfate, depending on the availability of ammonia (NH 3 ). In the presence of small wet particles (typically much, much smaller than rain drops or even fog) , a highly efficient aqueous phase process can oxidize SO 2 to sulfate extremely quickly (~10 percent per hour). Not only is sulfate the dominant contributor to fine particle mass in the region, it accounts for anywhere from 60 percent to almost 80 percent of the difference between fine particle concentrations and extinction on the lowest a nd highest mass days at rural locations in the northeast a nd mid-Atlantic states (See Figure 2-2 ). Notably, at urban locations such as Washington DC, sulfate accounts for only about 40 percent of the difference in average fine particle concentrations for the 20 percent most versus least visibility impaired days (NESCAUM, 2001).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-3

Figure 2-2. Comparison of species cont ributions on best and worst days at Lye Brook Wilderness Area.



### 2.2. Rural versus urban chemistry Contributions to fine particle mass concen trations at rural lo cations include longrange pollutant transport as well as non- anthropogenic background contributions. Urban areas generally show mean PM 2.5 levels exceeding those at nearby rural sites. In the Northeast, this difference implies that local urban contributions are roughly 25 percent of the annual mean urban concentr ations, with regional aeroso l contributing the remaining, and larger, portion (NARSTO, 2003).

This rural versus urban difference in t ypical concentrations also emerges in a source apportionment analysis of fine partic le pollution in Philade lphia (see Chapter 10 of NARSTO, 2003) using two different mathematical models, UNMIX and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). This analysis provides additional insight concerning sources of fine particle pollution in urban ar eas of the densely populated coastal corridor between Washington DC and New England. Specifically, this analysis found the following apportionment of PM 2.5 mass in the study area:

• Local SO 2 and sulfate: ~ 10 percent

• Regional sulfate: ~ 50 percent

• Residual oil: 4-8 percent

• Soil: 6-7 percent

• Motor vehicles: 25-30 percent The analysis does not account for bioge nic sources, which most likely are embedded in the motor vehicle fraction (NARSTO, 2003). The Philadelphia study suggests that both local pollu tion from nearby sources a nd transported “regional”PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-4

pollution from distant sources contribute to the high sulfate concentrations observed in urban locations along the East Coast on an annual average basis. Summertime sulfate and organic carbon are strongly regional in eastern North America. Typically 75–95 percent of the urban sulfate concentra tions and 60–75 percen t of the urban OC concentrations arise from cumulative region-wide contri butions (NARSTO, 2003). Urban air pollutants are essentially added on top of this regional background. Nitrate plays a noticeably more important role at urban sites compared to northeastern and mid-Atlantic rural monitoring sites, perhap s reflecting a greater contribu tion from vehicles and other urban pollution sources (NESCAUM, 2001). It is difficult to discern any significant meaning about the cause of “excess” mass from a single pair of sites. There are many f actors that influence the concentrations at a particular site and it is likely that for every pair of sites that shows an urban excess, one could find some pair of locations that mi ght show something similar to an urban “deficit.” While paired sites from an urban and a rural location will typically show greater concentrations in the urban location and lower levels of pollution in rural areas, great care must be exercised in the interpreta tion of any two-site an alysis such as the comparisons of speciated components of PM 2.5 presented here. Nonetheless, such comparisons do provide a general feel fo r the typical chemical composition of PM 2.5 in the eastern U.S. and the relative differences in chemical composition between rural and more urban locations. More detailed, “n etwork”-wide analyses (e.g., see NESCAUM 2004b; relevant sections are a ttached in Appendix C to this report) indicate that the results provided are not anomalous of t ypical urban environmen ts in the MANE-VU region. Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4 compare two urban-rural pa irs of speciation monitors: the New York nonattainment area (Elizabeth a nd Chester, New Jersey) and the Boston metropolitan area (Boston and Quabbin Reservoir, Massachusetts). The first three sites are Speciation Trends locations, while the Reservoir site is pa rt of the IMPROVE protocol network. k

k To provide a more direct comparison of the differen ces between the urban and rural sites, only those days for which both monitors in a pair had data were used. Four seasonal averages were computed for 2002, with seasons defined as winter (January, February, December), spring (March, April, May), Summer (June, July, August) and Fall (September, October, November). July 7 was excluded from the analysis because the Quebec forest fires affecting the region on that da y would have dominated the summertime averages. The major fine particle species categories considered incl uded ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and soil mass. The traditiona l assumptions about these constituents were made; all sulfate was fully neutralized an d a multiplier of 1.4 was used to acc ount for mass of organic carbon. An “other PM 2.5 mass” category was created to delineate the di fference between gravimetric mass determined from the Teflon filter and the reconstructed mass sum of the individual mass constituents. Where no “other” mass is graphed, the sum of the species either equaled or exceeded the directly measured mass. No adjustments were made to account for the different operational definitions of carbon between the IMPROVE and STN networks. Average blank corrections were applied to all samples. In the case of New York City, both rural and urban monitors were ST N. The Boston pair reflects not only inter-site differences, but also diffe rences in definition of organic and elemental carbon. However, the general interpretation of the data differences remains cons istent. Based on current understanding, the rural elemental carbon would be even lower than what is show n on the graph if it were made consistent with the STN definition of EC. Likewise, the organic carbon value would increase slightly for the rural value, as thePM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-5

Figure 2-3. New York nonattainment area (Elizabeth, NJ) compared to an upwind background site (Chester, NJ)

2002 Urban-Rural PM 2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25NJBGNJBGNJBGNJBGNJBGMass (ug/m3) Other PM2.5 Soil EC_STN OCM_STN AmmNO3 AmmSO4

annual winter spring summer fall

Figure 2-4. Boston urban area (Boston, MA) compared to an upwind background site (Quabbin Reservoir, MA)

2002 Urban-Rural PM 2.5



### 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16BostonBGBostonBGBostonBGBostonBGBostonBGMass (ug/m3) 

### Other PM2.5 Soil EC_STN OCM_STN AmmNO3 AmmSO4

annual winter spring summer fall

EC would be allocated to OC. The urban OC levels are so much greater than those in the rural area that aPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-6

The urban-rural differences show consistency for both the New York City nonattainment area and Boston. On an annual sc ale, the sulfate levels are comparable, with increased mass loading at these urban sites driven primarily by differences in nitrates and carbon with smaller differences in “s oil” levels. One interesting aspect of this comparison is the seasonal differences in the urban-rural sulfate split. On an annual basis, sulfate appears to be similar at urban and rural locations (based on these two pair of sites); however, during the colder months, the ur ban sulfate levels are elevated relative to the rural levels. This behavior is opposite during the summer. During the wintertime, the Northeast urban corridor itself is a substant ial source of sulfur em issions. These local emissions can be trapped near the surface during the winter and have a corresponding higher impact on the urban area re lative to the rural area.
For both urban and rural areas, the su mmertime OC levels are significantly greater than wintertime concentrations. Although the oxidation chemistry slows in winter, the cooler temperatur es change the phase dynamics, driving more mass into the condensed over the gas phase. This along w ith more frequent temperature inversions (which limit atmospheric ventilation of the urban boundary layer) can lead to the observed increases in the relative influence of both organic and n itrate levels during winter months. EC, OC, and nitr ate all are observed to have hi gher measured levels in the urban area (but still lower th an the comparable summer values measured at the same sites), driven by local sour ces of these constituents.



### 2.3. Geographic considerations and attribution of PM 2.5 

### /haze contributors In the East, both annual average and maximu m daily fine particle concentrations are highest near heavily i ndustrialized areas and populati on centers. Not surprisingly, given the direct connection between fine pa rticle pollution and haze, the same pattern emerges when one compares measures of light extinction on the most and least visibility impaired days at parks and wilderness areas subject to federal h aze regulations in the MANE-VU region (NESCAUM, 2001). An accu mulation of particle pollution often results in hazy conditions extending ove r thousands of square kilometers (km 2 ) (NARSTO, 2003). Substantial visibility impairme nt is a frequent occurrence in even the most remote and pristine areas of the MANE-VU region (NESCAUM, 2001).

PM 2.5 mass declines fairly steadily along a southwest to northeast transect of the MANE-VU region. This decline is consistent with the existence of large fine particle emissions sources (both primary and secondary ) to the south and west of MANE-VU. This trend is driven, in large part, by the marked southwest-to- northeast gradient in ambient sulfate concentrations during thr ee seasons of the year as illustrated in Figure 2-5 . Wintertime concentrations, by contrast, are far more uniform across the entire region. Figure 2-6 shows that on an annual basis, both total PM 2.5 and sulfate mass are highest in the southwestern portions of the MANE-VU region (note the different scales for each pollutant). High concentrations of nitrate and organic particle constituents, which play a role in localized wintertime PM 2.5 episodes, tend to be clustered along the northeastern urban corridor and in other large urban centers.

slight increase in rural OC makes little difference.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-7PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-8

Figure 2-5. 2002 Seasonal average SO 4 based on IMPROVE and STN data

Figure 2-6. 2002 Annual average PM 2.5 , sulfate, nitrate and total carbon for MANE-VU based on IMPROVE (I) and STN (S) data. PM 2.5 mass data are supplemented by measurements from the FRM network (•).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-9

While these figures provide some pre liminary context for identifying sources contributing to the region’s particulate matte r and visibility problems, they say nothing about the relative efficiency of a state’s or region’s emissions in contributing to the problem. It is clear that distance from the emissions source matters. Local, nearby sources are exceedingly important and sources within about 200 km are much more efficient (on a per ton emitted basis) at pr oducing pollution impacts at eastern Class I sites such as Shenandoah National Park than emissions sources farther away (USNPS, 2003). In general, the “reach” of su lfate air pollution resulting from SO 2 emissions is longest (650–950 km). The reach of ammonia emissions or reduced nitrogen relative to nutrient deposition is the shortest (around 400 km ), while oxides of nitrogen and sulfur — in terms of their impacts with respect to acidic deposition — have a reach between 550–650 km and 600–700 km, respectively (USNPS, 2003). Monitoring evidence indicates that non-ur ban visibility impairment in eastern North America is predominantly due to sulfate particles, with organic particles generally second in importance (NARSTO, 2003). This makes sense, given the “long reach” of SO 2 emissions once they are chemically transf ormed into sulfate and given the ubiquitous nature of OC sources in the East. The poorest visibility conditions occur in highly industrialized areas encompassing and adjacent to the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys. These areas feature large coal-burning pow er stations, steel mills, and other large emissions sources. Average fine particle concen trations and visibility conditions are also poor in the highly populated and industriali zed mid-Atlantic s eaboard but improve gradually northeast of New York City (Watson, 2002). A review of source apportionment and ense mble trajectory analyses conducted by USEPA (2003) found that all back trajectory analyses for easte rn sites associated sulfate with the Ohio River Valley area. These studies also are frequently able to associate other types of industrial pollutants (e.g., copper or zinc smelting, steel production, etc.) with known source areas, lending credibility to th eir performance. Several studies in the USEPA review noted transport across the Cana dian border, specifically sulfates from the midwestern United States into Canada, and smelter emissions from Canada into the northeastern United States. A recent, comprehensive analysis of ai r quality problems at Shenandoah National Park conducted by the U.S. National Pa rk Service (USNPS, 2003) focused on contributions to particulate pollution and vi sibility impairment south of the MANE-VU region. In descending order of importance, th e Park Service analysis determined that Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky comprise the top five of 13 key states contributing to ambient sulfate c oncentrations and haze impacts at the park. West Virginia, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvani a, and Kentucky comp rise the top five contributing states with respect to sulfur deposition impacts at the park. Finally, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nort h Carolina were found to be the top five states contributing to deposition impacts from oxidized nitrogen at the park (USNPS, 2003).
In sum, the Park Service found that emission sources located within a 200 km (125 mile) radius of Shenandoah cause greate r visibility and acidic deposition impacts at the park, on a per ton basis, than do more distant emissions sources (USNPS, 2003). When mapping deposition and concentration patterns for all th ree pollutants usingPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-10

contour lines, the resulting geographic pattern sh ows a definite eastward tilt in the area of highest impact. This is th e result of prevailing wind patt erns, which tend to transport most airborne pollutants in an arc l from the north-northeast to the east. The Park Service found, for example, that emissions originati ng in the Ohio River Valley end up three times farther to the east than to the west (USNPS, 2003).

The recent sulfate attribution work completed by MANE-VU (NESCAUM, 2006) finds that a variety of differe nt states contribute to observe d sulfate in rural locations across the MANE-VU region, but that in the southwest portions of the region, neighboring RPOs contribute to a more significant degree re lative to rural areas in the Northeast. Figure 2-7 shows relative contributions of RPOs to sulfate at three MANEVU Class I areas and one VISTAS Class I area based on a variety of analysis methods. Figure 2-8 shows the individual state contributions to sulfate at Brigantine Wilderness Area on the New Jersey coast acco rding to tagged REMSAD modeling.

Figure 2-7. 2002 Annual av erage contribution to PM 2.5 sulfate as determined by multiple analysis methods for four Cla ss I areas spanning MANE-VU and Virginia

l The prevailing winds are eastward to northeast. Th is leads to greater pollution transport to the eastnortheast relative to other directions.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-11

Figure 2-8. 2002 Annual aver age mass contribution to PM 2.5 at Brigantine Wilderness in New J ersey (IMPROVE) and sulfate cont ributions as determined by tagged REMSAD model simulations (NESCAUM, 2006)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Brigantine

Sulfate Nitrate EC OC Sea Salt Soil 

### 2000-2004 average

IMPROVE mass REMSAD 2002 average contributions to sulfateμg/m3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Outside Boundary
Canada
CENRAP
DC MS
VT
RI
ME CT
NH
AL
WI
TN SC
IL
KY GA
MI
MA
IN
DE
NJ NC
VA
WV
MD
NY OH
PA 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Brigantine

Sulfate Nitrate EC OC Sea Salt Soil 

### 2000-2004 average

IMPROVE mass REMSAD 2002 average contributions to sulfateμg/m3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Outside Boundary
Canada
CENRAP
DC MS
VT
RI
ME CT
NH
AL
WI
TN SC
IL
KY GA
MI
MA
IN
DE
NJ NC
VA
WV
MD
NY OH
PA



### 2.4. CAIR Modeling The CAIR modeling by the USEPA provide s information on the upwind areas (by state) contributing to downwind nonattainment for PM 2.5 in MANE-VU counties. Table 2-1 presents the upwind states si gnificantly contributing to PM 2.5 nonattainment in counties within MANE-VU during 2001, according to significance criteria used by the USEPA (USEPA, 2005, from Table VII-3). The st ates listed in the table as significantly contributing to downwind nonattainment in MA NE-VU counties include states outside of MANE-VU, indicating the broa d regional scale of the PM 2.5 transport problem.

Table 2-2 provides the maximum contribution from each state to annual average PM 2.5 nonattainment in a downwind state (not necessarily restricted to MANE-VU nonattainment counties) based on CAIR modeling.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-12

Table 2-1. Upwind states that make a significant contribution to PM 2.5 in each downwind nonattainment county (2001 modeling).

Downwind State/County Upwind States
DE New Castle MD/DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

DC District of Columbia NC OH PA VA WV MD Anne Arundel NC OH PA VA WV MD Baltimore City NC OH PA VA WV NJ Union MD/DC MI NY OH PA WV NY New York MD/DC OH PA WV PA Allegheny IL IN KY MI OH WV PA Beaver IN MI OH WV PA Berks MD/DC MI NY OH VA WV PA Cambria IN MD/DC MI OH WV PA Dauphin MD/DC MI OH VA WV PA Delaware MD/DC MI OH VA WV PA Lancaster IN MD/DC MI NY OH VA WV PA Philadelphia MD/DC MI OH VA WV PA Washington IN KY MI OH WV PA Westmoreland IN KY MD/DC MI OH WV PA York MD/DC MI OH VA WV

Table 2-2. Maximum downwind PM 2.5 contribution (μg/m 3 ) for each of the 37 upwind states (2001 data).

Upwind

State Maximum Downwind Contribution Upwind State Maximum Downwind Contribution Alabama 0.98 Nebraska 0.07 Arkansas 0.19 New Hampshire <0.05 Connecticut <0.05 New Jersey 0.13 Delaware 0.14 New York 0.34 Florida 0.45 North Carolina 0.31 Georgia 1.27 North Dakota 0.11 Illinois 1.02 Ohio 1.67 Indiana 0.91 Oklahoma 0.12 Iowa 0.28 Pennsylvania 0.89 Kansas 0.11 Rhode Island <0.05 Kentucky 0.9 South Carolina 0.4 Louisiana 0.25 South Dakota <0.05 Maine <0.05 Tennessee 0.65 Maryland/DC 0.69 Texas 0.29 Massachusetts 0.07 Vermont <0.05 Michigan 0.62 Virginia 0.44 Minnesota 0.21 West Virginia 0.84 Mississippi 0.23 Wisconsin 0.56 Missouri 1.07PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-13



### 2.5. Seasonal differences
Eastern and western coastal regions of the United States and Canada show marked seasonality in the concentration and compositi on of fine particle pol lution, while central interior regions do not (NARSTO, 2003). Wh ile MANE-VU extends inland as far as the Pennsylvania and Ohio border, the majority of PM 2.5 NAAQS nonattainment areas and Class I areas affected by the Regional Haze Ru le cluster along the East Coast and thus typically show strong seas onal influences. Maximum PM 2.5 concentrations typically occur during the summer over most of the rural Northeast, with observed summer values for rural areas in the region, on average, tw ice those of winter. In urban locations, summertime and wintertime PM 2.5 levels are more comparable and whether one season dominates over the other is more of a func tion of inter-annual variab ility of meteorology and fire activity (i.e., summertim e fire activity can push average PM 2.5 values higher in some years). As described below, th e reason for the wintertime strength of PM 2.5 levels in urban areas is related to the greater c oncentration of local pollution that accumulates when temperature inversions are present, significantly boos ting the wintertime PM 2.5 levels. Winter nitrate concentrations are ge nerally higher than those observed in summer and, as mentioned above, urban concentrations typically exceed rural concentrations year-round. In addition, local mobile s ource carbon grows in importance during wintertime. Hence, in some large urban ar eas such as Philadelphia and New York City, peak concentrations of PM 2.5 can occur in winter. The conceptual descriptions th at explain elevated regional PM 2.5 peak concentrations in the summer differs significa ntly from those that explain the largely urban peaks observed during winter. On averag e, summertime concentrations of sulfate in the northeastern United States are more than twice that of the next most important fine particle constituent, OC, and more than four times the combined concentration of nitrate and black carbon (BC) constituents (NARSTO, 2003). Episodes of high summertime sulfate concentrations are consistent with stagnant meteorological flow conditions upwind of MANE-VU and the accumulation of airborne sulfate (via atmospheric oxidation of SO 2 ) followed by long-range transport of sulfur emissions from industrialized areas within and outside the region. National assessments (NARSTO, 2003) have indicated that in the winter, sulfate levels in urban areas are almost twice as high as background sulfate levels across the eastern U.S., indicating that th e local urban contribution to wintertime sulfate levels is comparable in magnitude to the regional sulf ate contribution from long-range transport. MANE-VU’s network analysis for the wi nter of 2002 suggest s that the local enhancement of sulfate in urban areas of MANE-VU is somewhat less with ranges from 25 to 40% and that the long-ra nge transport component of PM 2.5 sulfate is still the dominant contributor in most eastern cities.
In the winter, urban OC and sulfate each account for about a th ird of the overall PM 2.5 mass concentration observed in Philadelp hia and New York City. Nitrate also makes a significant contribution to urban PM 2.5 levels observed in the northeastern United States during the wint er months. Wintertime concentrations of OC and NO 3 in urban areas can be twice the average regi onal concentrations of these pollutants,PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-14

indicating the importance of lo cal source contributions (NARST O, 2003). This is likely because winter conditions are more conducive to the formation of local inversion layers that prevent vertical mixing. Under these c onditions, emissions from tailpipe, industrial, and other local sources become concentrat ed near the Earth’s surface, adding to background pollution levels associated w ith regionally transported emissions. It is worth noting that while sulfate plays a significant role in episodes of elevated particle pollution during summer and wintermonths, the processes by which sulfate forms may vary seasonally. Nearly ev ery source apportionment study reviewed by USEPA (2003) identified seconda ry sulfate originating from coal combustion sources as the largest or one of the larges t contributors to overall fine particle mass in the region. It often accounted for more than 50 percent of PM 2.5 mass at some locations during some seasons. In a few cases, source apportionmen t studies identified a known local source of sulfate, but most assessments (in conjunction with back trajec tory analysis) have pointed to coal-fired power plants in the Midwest as an important source for regional sulfate. Studies with multiple years of data have also tended to identify a distinguishable chemical “signature” for winter versus su mmer sources of sulfate, with the summer version typically accounting for a greater share of overall fine particle mass. Researchers have speculated that the two profiles re present two extremes in the chemical transformation processes that occur in the at mosphere between the source regions where emissions are released and downwind receptor sites. We note that while coal combustion is often referred to as the “sulfate so urce” because of the dominance of its sulfate contribution, coal combustion is often a s ource of significant am ounts of organic carbon and is usually the single largest source of selenium (Se) and other heavy metal trace elements (USEPA, 2003).

Figure 2-9. Moving 60-day average of fine aerosol mass concentrations based on long-term data from two northeastern citiesPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-15

In general, fine particle concentrat ions in MANE-VU are highest during the warmest (summer) months but also exhibit a secondary peak during the coldest (winter) months that can dominate during some years, particularly in urban locations. This bimodal seasonal distribution of peak values is readily apparent in Figure 2-9 . The figure shows the smoothed 60-day running average of fine particle mass c oncentrations using continuous monitoring data from two northeaste rn cities over a period of several years. Figure 2-10. The 30-day average PM 2.5 concentrations from 8 no rtheastern cities during 2002

Figure 2-10 also demonstrates this bimoda l pattern. Though slightly more difficult to discern in just a single year’s worth of data, a “W” pattern does emerge at almost all sites across the region during 2002 w ith the winter peak somewhat lower than the summer peak at most sites. Urban monitors in Wilmington, Delaware and New Haven, Connecticut have wintertime peak values approaching those of summer. In the summertime, MANE-VU sites repeat edly experience sulfate events due to transport from regions to the south and west . During such events, both rural and urban sites throughout MANE-VU r ecord high (i.e., >15 μg/m 3 ) daily average PM 2.5 concentrations. Meteorological conditions during the summer frequently allow for summer “stagnation” events when very low wind speeds and warm temperatures (upwind and over MANE-VU) allow pollution levels to build in an air mass as it slowly moves across the continent. During these events, at mospheric ventilation is poor and local emission sources add to the burden of tran sported pollution with the result that concentrations throughout the region (both rural and urban) are relatively uniform. Generally, there are enough of these events to drive the difference between urban and rural sites down to less than 1 μg/m 3 during the warm or hot months of the year. As a result, concentrations of fine particles aloft will often be higher than at ground-level during the summertime, especially at rural monitoring sites. Thus, when atmospheric “mixing” occurs during summer m mornings (primarily 7 to 11 a.m.), fine particle concentrations at ground-level can actually in crease (see Hartford, CT or Camden, NJ in Figure 2-11 ).

m

Here we define summer as May, June, July and August.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-16

Figure 2-11. Mean hourly fine aerosol concentrations during 2002 summer months

Fine Aerosol Diurnal Pattern at 18 MANE-VU Sites

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23ug/m3

Hartford, CT New Haven, CT Waterbury, CT Wilmington, DE Lewiston, ME Portland, ME Bangor, ME Camden, NJ Newark, NJ Trenton, NJ Elizabeth, NJ NY City, NY Buffalo, NY Rochester, NY Pittsburgh, PA Burlington, VT Rutland, VT Boston, MA

Figure 2-12. Mean hourly fine aerosol concentrations during 2002 winter months

Fine Aerosol Diurnal Pattern at 18 MANE-VU Sites

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23ug/m3

Hartford, CT New Haven, CT Waterbury, CT Wilmington, DE Lewiston, ME Portland, ME Bangor, ME Camden, NJ Newark, NJ Trenton, NJ Elizabeth, NJ NY City, NY Buffalo, NY Rochester, NY Pittsburgh, PA Burlington, VT Rutland, VT Boston, MAPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-17

During the wintertime, strong inversions fr equently trap local emissions overnight and during the early morning, resulting in elevated urban concentrations. These inversions occur when the Earth’s surface lo ses thermal energy by radiating it into the atmosphere (especially on clear nights). The re sult is a cold, stable layer of air near the ground. At sunrise, local emissions (both m obile and stationary) begin increasing in strength and build-up in the stable ground la yer (which may extend only 100 meters or less above the ground). Increasi ng solar radiation during the period between 10 a.m. and noon typically breaks this cycle by warming th e ground layer so that it can rise and mix with air aloft. Because the air aloft during wintertime is t ypically less polluted than the surface layer, this mixing tends to reduce ground-level particle concentrations (see Figure 2-12 ). This diurnal cycle generally drives wintertime particle concentrations, although the occasional persistent temperature inve rsion can have the effect of trapping and concentrating local emissions over a period of several days, thereby producing a significant wintertime pollution episode. Rural areas experience the same temperatur e inversions but have relatively fewer local emissions sources so that wintertime concentrations in rural locations tend to be lower than those in nearby urban areas. Me dium and long-range fine particle transport events do occur during the winter but to a far lesser extent than in the summertime. In sum, it is the interplay between local a nd distant sources together with seasonal meteorological conditions that drives the observed 3–4 μ g/m 3 wintertime urban-rural difference in PM 2.5 concentrations. Visually hazy summer days in the Northeas t can appear quite different from hazy winter days. The milky, uniform vi sibility impairment shown in Figure 2-13 is typical of summertime regional haze events in the No rtheast. During the winter, by comparison, reduced convection and the frequent occurrence of shallow inversion layers often creates a layered haze with a brownish tinge, as shown in Figure 2-14 . This visual difference suggests seasonal variation in the relative cont ribution of different gaseous and particle constituents during the summ er versus winter months (NESCAUM, 2001). Rural and inland areas tend not to experience these layere d haze episodes as frequently due to the lack of local emission sources in most rural areas (valleys with high wood smoke contributions are an exception). Overall (regional) differences in su mmer versus winter particle mass concentrations and corresponding visibility im pairment (as measured by light extinction) are largely driven by seasonal variation in su lfate mass concentrati ons. This is because winter meteorological conditions are less condu cive to the oxidation of sulfate from SO 2 (as borne out by the previously cited source apportionment st udies). In addition, seasonal differences in long-range tran sport patterns from upwind SO 2 source regions may be a factor. The greater presence of nitrate during the cold season is a consequence of the chemical properties of ammoni um nitrate. Ammonia bonds more weakly to nitrate than it does to sulfate, and ammonium nitrate te nds to dissociate at higher temperatures. Consequently, ammonium nitrat e becomes more stable at lower temperatures and hence contributes more to PM 2.5 mass and light extinction during th e winter months relative to the summer (NESCAUM, 2001).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-18

Figure 2-13. Summertime at Mt. Washington Clean Day Typical Haze Event

Figure 2-14. Wintertime in Boston Clean Day Typical Haze Event



### 2.6. Summary The presence of fine particulate matter in ambient air significantly degrades public health and obscures visibility during mo st parts of the year at sites across the MANE-VU region. Particle po llution generally, and its sulfate compone nt specifically, constitute the principle driver for regional visibility impacts. While the broad region experiences visibility impairment, it is most severe in the southern and western portions of MANE-VU that are closes t to large power plant SO 2 sources in the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys. Summer visibility impairment is driv en by the presence of regional sulfate, whereas winter visibility de pends on a combination of regional and local influences coupled with local meteorological conditions (i nversions) that lead to the concentrated build-up of pollution. Sulfate is the key particle constituent from the sta ndpoint of designing control strategies to improve visibility conditions in the northeastern Unite d States. Significant further reductions in ambient sulfate levels are achievable, though they will require more than proportional reductions in SO 2 emissions. Long-range pollutant transport and local pollutant emissions are important, especially along the eastern seaboard, so one must also look beyond the achievement of further sulfate reductions. During the winter months, in particular, consideration also needs to be given to re ducing urban sources of SO 2 , NO X and OC (NARSTO, 2003) .PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 2-19



### References

Husar, R.B. and W.E. Wilson, “Haze and Sulf ur Emission Trends in the Eastern United States”, Environ. Sci. Technol. 1993, 27 (1), 12-16.

Malm, W.C., B.A. Schichtel, R. B. Ames, a nd K. A. Gebhart (2002), “A 10-year spatial and temporal trend of sulfate across the United States,” J. Geophys. Res . 107(D22):4627, doi:10.1029/2002JD002107.

NARSTO, Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers: A NARSTO Assessment , EPRI 1007735, February, 2003.

NESCAUM, Regional Haze and Visibility Impairment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States , Northeast States for Coordinate d Air Use Management, Boston, MA, January, 2001.

NESCAUM, 2002: A Year in Review , Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, MA, December, 2004b.

NESCAUM, Contributions to Regional Haze and Vi sibility Impairment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States, Northeast States for Coor dinated Air Use Management, Boston, MA, June, 2006.

USEPA, COMPILATION OF EXISTING STUDIES ON SOURCE APPORTIONMENT FOR PM 2.5 , Second Draft , Emissions, Monitoring, and An alysis Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Rese arch Triangle Park, NC, August, 2003.

USNPS, Assessment of Air Quality and Rela ted Values in Shenandoah National Park

, Technical Report NPS/NERCHAL/NRTR-03/090, U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Northeast Regi on, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, May, 2003.

Watson, J., “Visibility: Science and Regulation”, JAWMA 52:628-713, 2002.

West, J.J., Ansari, A.S., and S. N. Pandis, “Marginal PM 2.5 : Nonlinear Aerosol Mass Response to Sulfate Reductions in the Eastern United States.” JAWMA 49:1415-1424, 1999.

USEPA, “Technical Support Document for th e Final Clean Air Interstate Rule, Air Quality Modeling.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. March 2005

.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-1



## 3. MANE-VU EMISSION INVENTORY CHARACTERISTICS FOR FINE PARTICLES The pollutants that affect fine particle fo rmation and visibility are sulfur oxides (SO X ), NO X , VOCs, ammonia (NH 3 ), and particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 and 2.5 μm (i.e., primary PM 10 and PM 2.5 ). The emissions dataset illustrated in this section is the 2002 M ANE-VU Version 2 regional haze emissions inventory. The MANE-VU regional haze emissi ons inventory version 3.0, released in April 2006, has superseded vers ion 2 for modeling purposes.



### 3.1. Emissions inventory characteristics

3.1.1. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 

### )
SO 2 is the primary precursor pollutant for sulfate particles. Ammonium sulfate particles are the largest contributor to PM 2.5 mass on an annual average basis at MANEVU nonattainment sites. It also accounts for more than 50 percent of particle-related light extinction at northeastern Class I areas on the clearest da ys and for as much as or more than 80 percent on the haziest days. Hence, SO 2 emissions are an obvious target of opportunity for both addressing PM 2.5 nonattainment and for reducing regional haze in the eastern United States. Combustion of coal and, to a substantially lesser extent, of certain petroleum products accounts for most anthropogenic SO 2 emissions. In fact, in 1998 a single source category — coal-burning po wer plants — was responsible for twothirds of total SO 2 emissions nationwide (NESCAUM, 2001). Figure 3-1 shows SO 2 emissions trends in MANE-VU states n extracted from the National Emissions Inventories (NEI) fo r the years 1996, 1999 (MARAMA, 2004), and the 2002 MANE-VU inventory. Most of the states (with the exception of Maryland) show declines in year 2002 annual SO 2 emissions as compared to 1996 emissions. Some of the states show an increase in 1999 fo llowed by a decline in 2002 and others show consistent declines throughout the entire period. The upwar d trend in emissions after 1996 probably reflects electricity demand grow th during the late 1990s combined with the availability of banked SO 2 emissions allowances from initial over-compliance with control requirements in Phase 1 of the USEPA Acid Rain Program. This led to relatively low market prices for allowances later in the decade, which encouraged utilities to purchase allowances rather than implement ne w controls as electric ity output expanded. The observed decline in the 2002 SO 2 emissions inventory reflects implementation of the second phase of the USEPA Acid Rain Program, which in 2000 further reduced allowable emissions and extended emissions limits to more power plants. Figure 3-2 shows the percent contribution from different source categories to overall annual 2002 SO 2 emissions in MANE-VU states. The chart shows that point sources dominate SO 2 emissions, which primarily cons ist of stationary combustion sources for generating electri city, industrial en ergy, and heat. Smaller stationary combustion sources called “area sources” (prima rily commercial and residential heating)

n The description of MANE-VU state inventories discussed throughout this section does not include the portion of Virginia in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-2

are another important source category in MANE-VU states. By contrast, on-road and non-road mobile sources make only a rela tively small contribution to overall SO 2 emissions in the region (NESCAUM, 2001).

Figure 3-1. State level su lfur dioxide emissions

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Connecti c ut

Del

awar e

D i strict of Columbia M ai

ne

M

ar

y l and Mas s achusetts

N

e w H

am

ps

hi

r e
Ne

w Jer

s ey

N

ew

Yor

k Penns yl

va

ni

a Rhode I

s l and Ver

m ontmillion t/y NEI 1996
NEI 1999
MV 2002 v.2

Figure 3-2. 2002 MANE-VU state SO 2 inventories

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Connecticut Dela w are Distric t of

Colum bia Maine
M aryl

a nd Mass a chuse t ts New Ha

mpsh i re New J ers

ey

Ne

w

Y ork

P

enns ylva

ni

a Rhode Island Ve r mo

nt 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2million t/y

AREA NONROAD ONROAD POINT Emission Figure Key: Bars = Percentage fractions of four source categories; Circle s = Annual emissions amount in 10 6 tons per year. Note that Version 2 of the M ANE-VU inventory was used and the Virginia portion of the Washington, DC metropolitan area is not shown in the figure.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-3



### 3.1.2. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Existing emission inventories generally re fer to VOCs based on their historical contribution to ozone formation. From a fine particle perspective, VOCs (also referred to as hydrocarbons) are of concern because they can react in the atmosphere to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA) as a result of condensati on and oxidation processes. The SOA component of fine particles also obs cures visibility, but this component has a smaller impact on visibility (on a per unit mass ba sis) relative to sulfate or nitrate, which have an affinity for water that allows them to significantly “grow” as particles under humid conditions. Nonetheless, organic carbon typically has the second largest visibility impact at most Class I sites next to sulfate, given its large mass contribution.

As shown in Figure 3-3 , the VOC inventory is dominated by mobile and area sources. Most VOC emissions in MANE-VU, however, come from natural sources, which are not shown in the figure. Am ong the human-caused VOC emissions, on-road mobile sources of VOCs include exhaust emi ssions from gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel-powered heavy-duty vehi cles as well as evaporative emissions from transportation fuels. VOC emissions may also originate from a variety of ar ea sources (including solvents, architectural coati ngs, and dry cleaners) as well as from some point sources (e.g., industrial faci lities and petroleum refineries). Naturally occurring (biogenic) VOC em issions are caused by the release of natural organic compounds from plants in wa rm weather. Natural, or biogenic, VOCs contribute significantly to fine particle formation. Biogeni c VOCs are not included in Figure 3-3 , but nationally, they represent roughly two-thirds of all annual VOC emissions (USEPA, 2006). Biogenic emissions are extr emely difficult to estimate, as it requires modeling the behavior of many plants as we ll as their responses to the environment. With regard to fine particle formati on, understanding the transport dynamics and source regions for organic carbon is likely to be more complex than for sulfate. This is partly because of the large number and vari ety of VOC species, the fact that their transport characteristics vary widely, and the fact that a given species may undergo numerous complex chemical reactions in th e atmosphere. Thus, the organic carbon contribution to fine particles in the Ea st is likely to include manmade pollution transported from a distance, manmade po llution from nearby sources, and biogenic emissions, especially terpenes from coniferous forests. For fine particles derived from or ganic carbon, the oxidation of hydrocarbon molecules containing seven or more carbon atoms is generally the most significant pathway for their formation (Odum et al. , 1997). Recent research, however, suggests that smaller reactive hydrocarbons lik e isoprene not only contribu te significantly to groundlevel ozone, which may indirectly impact orga nic aerosol formation, but also contribute directly to ambient organic aerosol through heterogeneous pr ocesses (Claeys et al., 2004; Kroll et al., 2005).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-4

Figure 3-3. 2002 MANE-VU state VOC inventories

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Connec t icut

De

la

wa

r e

Dis

t rict

of Colu m bia M a ine
M

ar

y lan

d Massachusetts

N

ew

Ha

m

ps

h ire

N

ew

Jer

s ey

New York

P

en

n sy

lva

n ia Rhode Isla

n d Ver m

on

tmillion t/y

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

AREA NONROAD ONROAD POINT Emission Figure key: Bars = Percentage fractions of four source categories; Circles = Annual emissions amount in 10 6 tons per year. Note that Version 2 of the MANE-VU inventory was used and the Virginia portion of the Washington, DC metropolitan area is not shown in the figure. Biogenic VOCs are not included in this figure.



### 3.1.3. Oxides of nitrogen (NO X 

### )
NO X emissions contribute directly to PM 2.5 nonattainment and visibility impairment in the eastern U.S. by forming nitr ate particles. Nitrat e generally accounts for a substantially smaller fract ion of fine particle mass and related light extinction than sulfate and organic carbon regi onally in MANE-VU. Notably, nitrate may play a more important role at urban sites and in the wintertime. In addition, NO X may have an indirect effect on summertime visibility by virt ue of its role in the formation of ozone, which in turn promotes the formation of secondary organic aerosols (NESCAUM, 2001). Figure 3-4 shows NO X emissions in MANE-VU at the state level. Since 1980, nationwide emissions of NO X from all sources have show n little change. In fact, emissions increased by 2 percent betw een 1989 and 1998 (USEPA, 2000a). This increase is most likely due to industrial sources and the tr ansportation sector, as power plant combustion sources have implemente d modest emissions reductions during the same time period. Most states in MANE-VU experienced declining NO X emissions from 1996 through 2002, except Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island, which show an increase in NO X emissions in 1999 before declining to levels below 1996 emissions in 2002.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-5

Monitored ambient NO X trends during the summer from 1997 to 2005 corroborate the downward trend in NO X emissions seen in the emissi ons inventories for MANE-VU. As seen in Figure 3-5 , the 24-hour (lower trend lines) and 6 a.m.-8 a.m. (upper trend lines) NO X concentrations indicate decreases in NO X over this time period in MANE-VU. The NO X reductions likely come fr om decreasing vehicle NO X emissions due to more stringent motor vehicle standards as well as NO X reductions from MANE-VU NO X Budget Program and the NO X SIP Call (mainly power plants). Figure 3-4. State level ni trogen oxides emissions

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Connectic u t Delaware District o f Columb i a Maine Ma

r y lan

d Massachusetts

Ne

w

Ha

mp

s hire

New J

ers

e y

Ne

w

Y

o r k

P

e nn

s y lva

n ia

Rh

o de Isla n d

Vermontmillion t/y NEI 1996

NEI 1999

MV 2002 v.2

Figure 3-5. Plot of monitored NO X trends in MANE-VU during 1997-2005

JUNE, JULY & AUGUST 1997-2005 OTC AVERAGE NOx CONCENTRATIONS

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50199719981999200020012002200320042005199719981999200020012002200320042005199719981999200020012002200320042005Average Concentration (ppb) .

JUN (all hrs) JUL (all hrs) AUG (all hrs) JUN (06-08 EST) JUL (06-08 EST) AUG (06-08 EST)

Note: Upper trend lines correspond to NO X measured from 0600-0800 EST in the morning. Lower trend lines correspond to NO X measured over entire day (created by Tom Downs, Maine Department of Environmental Protection).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-6

Power plants and mobile sources ge nerally dominate state and national NO X emissions inventories. Nationa lly, power plants account for mo re than one-quarter of all NO X emissions, amounting to over six million tons. The electric sector plays an even larger role, however, in parts of the industrial Midwest where high NO X emissions have a particularly significant power plant contribution. By contra st, mobile sources dominate the NO X inventories for more urbanized mid-Atla ntic and New England states to a far greater extent, as shown in Figure 3-6 . In these states, on-road mobile sources — a category that mainly includes highway vehi cles — represent the most significant NO X source category. Emissions from non-road (i.e., off-highway) mobile sources, primarily diesel-fired engines, also represent a substantial fr action of the inventory.

Figure 3-6. 2002 MANE-VU state NO X inventories

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

C

o nnec ti cut Del aw

are Distric t of

Col um

bia Main e

Maryl and

M

assa c husetts

New Hampshire New J ers

ey

N

e w Y

ork

P

en

nsy

lv

ani

a Rho d e Island Vermontmillion t/y

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

AREA NONROAD ONROAD POINT Emission
Figure key: Bars = Percentage fractions of four source categories; Circles = Annual emissions amount in 10 6 tons per year. Note that Version 2 of the MANE-VU inventory was used and the Virginia portion of the Washington, DC metropolitan area is not shown in the figure.



### 3.1.4. Primary particulate matter (PM 10 

### and PM 2.5 

### ) Directly-emitted or “primary” particles (as distinct from secondary particles that form in the atmosphere through chemical r eactions involving precursor pollutants like SO 2 and NO X ) also contribute to fine particle le vels in the atmosphere. For regulatory purposes, we make a distinction between particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 micrometers and smalle r particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (i.e., primary PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-7

Figure 3-7 and Figure 3-8 show PM 10 and PM 2.5 emissions for MANE-VU states for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002. Note that, as opposed to the other constituents of PM, the 2002 inventory values for PM 10 are drawn from the 2002 NEI. Most states show a steady decline in annual PM 10 emissions over this time period. By contrast, emission trends for primary PM 2.5 are more variable. Crustal sources are significant contributors of primary PM emissions. This category includes fugitive dust emissions from construction activities, paved and unpaved roads, and agricultural tilling. Typically, monitors estimate PM 10 emissions from these types of sources by measuring the horizontal flux of particulate mass at a fixed downwind sampling location within perhaps 10 meters of a road or field. Comparisons between estimated emission rates for fine particles using these types of measurement techniques and observed concentrations of crustal matte r in the ambient air at downwind receptor sites suggest that physical or chemical pro cesses remove a significant fraction of crustal material relatively quickly. As a result, it rarely entrains in to layers of the atmosphere where it can transport to downwind receptor locations. Because of this discrepancy between estimated emissions and observed am bient concentrations, modelers typically reduce estimates of total PM 2.5 emissions from all crustal s ources by applying a factor of 0.15 to 0.25 before including in modeling analyses. From a regional haze perspective, crustal material generally does not play a major role. On the 20 percent best -visibility days dur ing the baseline pe riod (2000-2004), it accounted for 6 to 11 percent of particle-re lated light extinction at MANE-VU Class 1 sites. On the 20 percent worst- visibility days, however, crus tal material generally plays a much smaller role relative to other haze-forming pollutants, ranging from 2 to 3 percent. Moreover, the crustal fraction includes material of natural origin (such as soil or sea salt) that is not targeted under US EPA’s Regional Haze Rule. Of course, the crustal fraction can be influenced by certain human activities, such as construction, agricultural practices, and road maintenance (including wintertime salti ng) — thus, to the extent that these types of activities are found to affect visibility at northeastern Cl ass I sites, control measures targeted at crustal materi al may prove beneficial. Experience from the western United St ates, where the crustal component has generally played a more significant role in driving overall particulate levels, may be helpful where it is relevant in the eastern context. In addition, a few areas in the Northeast, such as New Haven, Connecticut and Presque Isle, Maine, have some experience with the control of dust and road-salt as a resu lt of regulatory obligations stemming from their past nonattainment st atus with respect to the NAAQS for PM 10
. Current emissions inventories for the entire MANE-VU area indicate residential wood combustion represents 25 percent of pr imary fine particulate emissions in the region. This implies that rural sources can play an important role in addition to the contribution from the region’s many highl y populated urban areas. An important consideration in this regard is that reside ntial wood combustion occurs primarily in the winter months, while managed or prescribed burning activities o ccur largely in other seasons. The latter category includes agricultural field-burning activities, prescribed burning of forested areas, and ot her burning activities such as construction waste burning. Limiting burning to times when favorable meteorological conditions can efficiently disperse resulting emissions can mana ge many of these types of sources.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-8

Figure 3-7. State level primary PM 10 emissions

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Connect i cut Delaware

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a M ai

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sey New York

Pennsyl vani a Rhode I s land Verm ontmillion t/y NEI 1996 NEI 1999
NEI 2002

Figure 3-8. State level primary PM 2.5 emissions

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Figure 3-9 and Figure 3-10 show that area and mobile sources dominate primary PM emissions. (The NEI inventory categori zes residential wood combustion and some other combustion sources as area sources.) Th e relative contribution of point sources is larger in the primary PM 2.5 inventory than in the primary PM 10 inventory since the crustalPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-9

component (which consists mainly of larger or “coarse-mode” particles) contributes mostly to overall PM 10 levels. At the same time, po llution control equipment commonly installed at large point sources is usually more efficient at capturing coarse-mode particles.

Figure 3-9. 2002 MANE-VU state primary PM 10 inventories

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

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t Delaware

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s t r ict of Columb i a Maine Mar y la

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a n d
V e rmon tmillion t/y

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Figure 3-10. 2002 MANE-VU state primary PM 2.5 inventories

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Connecticut

D ela

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o f Co l u m b i a Maine Ma

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a n d Massachusetts New Hampshire New J

ersey New Yor k

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AREA NONROAD ONROAD POINT Emission Figure key: Bars = Percentage fractions of four s ource categories; Circles = A nnual emissions amount in 10 6 tons per year. Note that Version 2 of the MANE-VU inventor y was used and the Virginia portion of the Washington, DC metropolitan area is not shown in the figure.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-10



### 3.1.5. Ammonia emissions (NH 3 

### ) Knowledge of ammonia emission sources will be necessary in developing effective regional haze reduction strategies because of the importance of ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrat e in determining overall fine particle mass and light scattering. According to 1998 estimates, liv estock and agriculture fertilizer use accounted for approximately 85 percent of a ll ammonia emissions to the atmosphere (USEPA, 2000b). We need, however, bett er ammonia inventory data for the photochemical models used to simulate fine particle formation and transport in the eastern United States. Because the USEPA does not regulate ammonia as a criteria pollutant or as a criteria pollutant precursor, these data do not presently exist at the same level of detail or certainty as for NO X and SO 2
. Ammonium ion (formed from ammonia em issions to the atmosphere) is an important constituent of airborne partic ulate matter, typically accounting for 10–20 percent of total fine particle mass. Reductions in ammonium ion concentrations can be extremely beneficial because a more-than-propo rtional reduction in fine particle mass can result. Ansari and Pandis (1998) showed that a one μ g/m 3 reduction in ammonium ion could result in up to a four μ g/m 3 reduction in fine particulate matter. Decision makers, however, must weigh the benefits of amm onia reduction against the significant role it plays in neutralizing acidic aerosol. SO 2 reacts in the atmosphere to form sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ). Ammonia can partially or fully neutra lize this strong acid to form ammonium bisulfate or ammonium sulfate. If planners focus future control strategies on ammonia and do not achieve corresponding SO 2 reductions, fine particles formed in the atmosphere will be substantially more acidic than those presently observed. To address the need for improved a mmonia inventories, MARAMA, NESCAUM and USEPA funded researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) in Pittsburgh to develop a regional ammonia inventory syst em (Davidson et al., 1999). This study focused on three issues with respect to curren t emissions estimates: (1) a wide range of ammonia emission factor values, (2) inadeq uate temporal and spatial resolution of ammonia emissions estimates, and (3) a lack of standardized amm onia source categories. Figure 3-11 shows that estimated ammonia emi ssions were fairly stable in the 1996, 1999, and 2002 NEI for MANE-VU states, with some increases observed for Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Area and on-road mobile sources dominate the ammonia inventory, according to Figure 3-12 . Specifically, emissions from agricultural sources a nd livestock production account for the largest share of estimated ammonia emissions in MANE-VU, except in the District of Columbia. The two remaining sources with a significant emissi ons contribution are wastewater treatment systems and gasoline exhaust from highway vehicles.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-11

Figure 3-11. State level ammonia emissions

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Figure 3-12. 2002 MANE-VU state NH 3 inventories

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l v ania Rhode Island Ver mon tmillion t/y

0.00 0.06 0.12

AREA NONROAD ONROAD POINT Emission
Figure key: Bars = Percentage fractions of four source categories; Circles = Annual emissions amount in 10 6 tons per year. Note that Version 2 of the MANE-VU inventory was used and the Virginia portion of the Washington, DC metropolitan area is not shown in the figure.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-12



### 3.2. Emissions inventory characteristics outside MANE-VU
SO 2 , NO X and VOC emissions from within MANE-VU are only one component of the emissions contributing to fine pa rticles affecting the MANE-VU region. As regional modeling for the CAIR has shown, emission sources, primarily of SO 2 and NO X , located outside MANE-VU can significantly cont ribute to particle sulfate and nitrate transported into the MANE-VU region. Here we present regional emissions information grouped by the three eastern RPOs – MANE-VU, VISTAS (Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southe ast), and the MWRPO (Midwest RPO). Table 3-1 lists the states in each RPO. The inventory information is extrac ted from the USEPA final 2002 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). For consistency, the MANE-VU information here also comes from the 2002 NEI rather than fr om the MANE-VU Version 2 regional haze emissions inventory described in Section 3.1. The differences between the inventories are not great, as the NEI and the MANE- VU Version 2 inventory are both based on the same inventory information provided by the states.

Table 3-1. Eastern U.S. RPOs and their state members

RPO State MWRPO Illinois MWRPO Indiana MWRPO Michigan MWRPO Ohio MWRPO Wisconsin MANE-VU Connecticut MANE-VU Delaware MANE-VU District of Columbia MANE-VU Maine MANE-VU Maryland MANE-VU Massachusetts MANE-VU New Hampshire MANE-VU New Jersey MANE-VU New York MANE-VU Pennsylvania MANE-VU Rhode Island MANE-VU Vermont VISTAS Alabama VISTAS Florida VISTAS Georgia VISTAS Kentucky VISTAS Mississippi VISTAS North Carolina VISTAS South Carolina VISTAS Tennessee VISTAS Virginia VISTAS West VirginiaPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-13

Table 3-2 presents SO 2 emissions by source sector and RPO for the eastern United States. The NO X emissions by source sector and RPO are presented in Table 3-3 and VOC emissions in Table 3-4 . Regionally, SO 2 emissions are more important with respect to regional particle formation and transport. NO X emissions play an important role in determining the equilibrium between ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate formation, especially during winter. VOC em issions contribute to secondary organic aerosol formation.

Table 3-2. SO 2 emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr)
RPO Point Area On-road Non-road Total MWRPO 3,336,967 133,415 49,191 82,307 3,601,880 MANE-VU 1,924,573 353,176 39,368 74,566 2,391,683 VISTAS 4,349,437 448,023 83,001 91,307 4,971,769

Table 3-3. NO X emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr)
RPO Point Area On-road Non-road Total MWRPO 1,437,284 184,790 1,290,178 723,844 3,636,096 MANE-VU 680,975 268,997 1,297,357 534,454 2,781,783 VISTAS 2,094,228 266,848 2,160,601 812,615 5,334,293

Table 3-4. VOC emissions in eastern RPOs (tons/yr)
RPO Point Area On-road Non-road Total MWRPO 234,938 1,182,186 660,010 492,027 2,569,160 MANE-VU 93,691 1,798,158 793,541 494,115 3,179,504 VISTAS 458,740 2,047,359 1,314,979 609,539 4,430,617PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 3-14



### References

Ansari, A.S., and S.N. Pandis. “Response of inorganic PM to precurs or concentrations.” Environ. Sci. Technol

. 32, 2706-2714, 1998.

Claeys, M., W. Wang, A.C. Ion, I. Kourtc hev, A. Gelencser, and W. Maenhaut, “Formation of secondary organic aerosols from isoprene and gas-phase oxidation products through reaction with hydrogen peroxide.” Atmos. Environ. , 38, 4093-4098, 2004.

Davidson, C., R. Strader, S. Pandis, and A. Robinson. Preliminary Proposal to MARAMA and NESCAUM: Development of an Ammonia Emissions Inventory for the Mid-Atlantic States and New England . Carnegie Mellon Univ ersity, Pittsburgh, PA, January 7, 1999.

Kroll, J.H., N.L. Ng, S.M. Murphy, R.C. Fl agan, and J.H. Seinfeld. “Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Photooxidation.” Environ. Sci. Technol. 40 , 1869- 1877, 2006.

MARAMA 2004, http://www.marama.org/visibility/2002%20NEI/index.html

MARAMA. “A Guide to Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Qual ity,” October 2005.

NESCAUM. Regional Haze and Visibility in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. NESCAUM, Boston, MA, January 2001.

Odum, J.R., T.P.W. Jungkamp, R.J. Griffin, R.C. Flagan, and J.J. Seinfeld. “The atmospheric aerosol-forming potential of whole gasoline vapor.” Science 276 , 96-99, 1997.

USEPA. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1998 , EPA 454/R-00-003, available online: http://www.epa.gov/oar/aqtrnd98/ , 2000a.

USEPA. National Air Pollutant Trends, 1900 – 1998 , EPA 454/R-00-002, available online: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/tr ends/trends98/trends98.pdf , 2000b.

USEPA. 2002 Final National Emissions Inventory (NEI) , available online: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2002finalnei/ , 2006 (accessed October 10, 2006) [The 2002 NEI reports national annual emissions fo r total anthropogenic VOC emissions as 16.8 million tons, and total biogenic VOC emissions as 41.8 million tons].PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-2



## 4. WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO CLEAN THE AIR? In this chapter we build on the conceptual description of fine particle formation and impacts in the MANE-VU region by looking at a typical fine pa rticle pollution event and the meteorological and chemical conditions which contributed to its formation. As an illustration of how the conceptual elements laid out in Chapter 2 and 3 contribute to a pollution event under real-world circumstances, we examine a pollution event from 2002. We examine this event from two perspectives: (1) the broad spatial patterns of the formation and transport of particle air po llution and (2) the chr onological sequence of events at a few discrete points where high temporal resolution monitoring was in place. We then proceed to examine likely emission reduction strategies that should be considered in light of the conceptual unde rstanding of fine particle formation and transport developed in this report.



### 4.1. Meteorological and Pollution Ov erview of August 8-16, 2002
Annual and seasonal statistics are useful for understanding the general patterns of air pollution in our region, but it is al so instructive to review specific high PM 2.5 episodes in order to shed more light on the me teorological circumstances under which high ambient concentrations of PM 2.5 are able to form from emitted precursor pollutants. Here we present an analysis of the high PM 2.5 and regional haze episode of August 2002 by reviewing surface maps from the period to pr ovide a synoptic overview of major weather systems that were influencing air quality across the Northeast U.S. during that time. Figure 4-1 through Figure 4-3 , respectively, show eight-panel displays of afternoon fine particle concentrations as well as surface weather maps and back trajectories from 12Z (8 a.m. EDT) each day. The following chronology of events combines the meteorological insights with PM 2.5 concentration information to provide a basic storyline for analysis. A slow-moving high pressure system cen tered over the Gr eat Lakes set up northerly flow over MANE-VU on August 8. The high drifted southeast-ward and became extended over several days bringing high temperatures to the region. Calm conditions west of MANE-VU on August 10 were pivotal in the formation of fine aerosol concentrations, which began building in the Oh io River Valley. Over the next four days, concentrations in MANE-VU climbed into the 60-90 μg/m 3 range over a wide area before being swept out to sea by a series of frontal passages beginning on August 15.

8/8 – A high pressure system over the Gr eat Lakes produces NW-N prevailing surface winds (~4-8 mph) throughout the region . Maximum daily temperatures approach or exceed 80o F.

8/9 – Wind speeds fall off but direction rema ins NW-N as the high moves into the central portion of MANE-VU. Temperat ures rise as cloud cover declines.

8/10 – The high reaches the East Coast a nd stalls. Temperatures (except in northern-most areas) reach 90o F while surface-level winds turn to more southerly directions. Calm conditions through the mo rning hours in the lower Ohio River Valley promote creation of haze noted in surface observations.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-3

8/11 – Circulation around the high (now near Cape Hatteras) becomes well established. Peak temperatures are in the low to mid-90’s. Morning winds are light-tocalm in the area east of the Mississippi – the area of haze now reaches from Michigan to northern Texas and eastward to West Virgin ia and eastern Tenness ee. A surface-level trough descends from north of the Great Lake s during the day, passe s eastward through the Ohio River Valley and stalls over the Allegheny Mountains and southward.

8/12 – Temperatures exceed 90o F throughout MANE-VU except in coastal ME. The area of concentrated haze has pushed eas tward and now extends from central ME to central PA. Haze builds throughout the day as circulation forces it to channel NE between the stalled trough and a cold front approaching from the Midwest.

8/13 – Calm conditions prevail as the trough reaches coastal NJ by 8 a.m. Generally clear skies allow temperatures to reach the mid-90’s everywhere except in coastal ME. Dew points, which had been ri sing since 8/8, reach the upper 60’s. Peak hourly fine aerosol concentrations are greater than 40 μg/m 3 everywhere in MANE-VU and exceed 90 μg/m 3 in some locations. By 8 p.m ., showers associated with the approaching cold front have reached into Ohio.

8/14 – By 8 a.m. the trough has dissipated and the high is moving offshore. Dew points remain in the upper 60’s and peak temp eratures reach into th e 90’s everywhere and top 100 in several locations. Increased ventil ation causes aerosol concentrations to drop throughout the day everywhere except ME wh ere some locations peak above 60 μg/m 3 after midnight.

8/15 – The approaching cold front and a ssociated showers fall apart during the morning hours. By 8 p.m., a new batch of mode rate rain has intruded deeply into the region from the SW and has virtually pus hed the haze out of the MANE-VU region.

8/16 – A new high building in over the upper Midwest pushes the remains of the showers out of the Northeast.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-4

Figure 4-1. Spatially interpolated maps of fine particle concentrations August 9 – 16, 2002PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-5

Figure 4-2. Surface weather maps for August 9-16, 2002
August 9, 8:00AM EDT August 10, 8:00 AM EDT

August 11, 8:00 AM EDT August 12, 8:00 AM EDT

August 13, 8:00 AM EDT August 14, 8:00 AM EDT

August 15, 8:00 AM EDT August 16, 8:00 AM EDTPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-6

Figure 4-3. HYSPLIT 72-hour back trajectories for August 9-16, 2002 

### Aug 9, 2002 8 am EDT 

### Aug 10, 2002 8 am EDT

Aug 11, 2002 8 am EDT Aug 12, 2002 8 am EDT

Aug 13, 2002 8 am EDT Aug 14, 2002 8 am EDT

Aug 15, 2002 8 am EDT Aug 16, 2002 8 am EDTPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-7



### 4.2. Temporally and spatially resolved PM 2.5 

### measurements Higher temporal resolution data provide insi ght into how the events played out in much more detail than can be captured by eight frames on a page; however the most complete picture is obtained when these high temporal resolution data can be presented in the context of the relatively greater spatial detail provided by maps such as we have seen in Figure 4-1 through Figure 4-3 . In Figure 4-4 and Figure 4-5 , we present continuous PM 2.5 data (hourly average and 24-hour ro lling average filtered, respectively) for the August 8-16, 2002 time period.

Looking at Figure 4-4 in the context of the maps pres ented in the earlier figures, it is interesting to note the rapid increase, fi rst, in Arendtsville, PA at noon on the 11th, followed by a rise in concentrations along th e East Coast around noon on the 12th. This is consistent with Figure 4-1 , which shows high PM 2.5 levels covering western Pennsylvania by 3 p.m. on the 11th and that high PM 2.5 area has moved over to cover the East Coast by 3 p.m. the next day. This also makes sense with respect to Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3 , which show the high pressure system established on the East Coast by the 11th with surface level back trajectories ha ving shifted from northerly flow to slow southwesterly flow in the western portion of the domain by the morning of the 11th and the coastal sites having switche d by the morning of the 12th. Figure 4-4. Hourly average fine aerosol at 8 sites during the August 2002 episode

-10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

7-Aug 8- A

u g 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 1 2 -Aug 13-Aug 1 4 -Aug 15

- A

u gug/m3 Arendtsville, PA Wilmington, DE Camden, NJ New Brunswick, NJ NYC (Bronx), NY Hartford, CT Boston, MA Portland, MEPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-8

Figure 4-5. 24-hour rolling average fine aerosol at 8 MANE-VU sites during the August 2002 episode

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6 -Aug 7 -Aug 8 -Aug 9 -Aug 10-Aug 1 1-

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Also note the very high levels obs erved close to mid-day on the 13 th at sites between New York City and Portland, Maine. This is consistent with the strong gradients shown for 3 p.m. on the 13 th in Figure 4-1 . These rapid increases in concentration are easily explained by the back trajectories of Figure 4-3 that show the advancing front (at this point over Lake Michigan) beginning to push, at upper levels of the atmosphere, an air mass from the upper Midwes t due east across the northern half of MANE-VU. At lower levels (see 200 meter trajectories), it can be seen that closer to the surface, this air mass had spent the previous three to four days winding around the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys before it was driven into the no rthern reaches of MANE-VU at the peak of the pollution event. The following figures bring much of this in formation together in a single image. Figure 4-6 contains satellite photos from MODIS, a mosaic of two consecutive satellite passages on August 13, 2002 from NASA’s TERRA satellite. Figure 4-7 shows the same image with geo-referenced activity data a nd inventory information layered on top to allow for simultaneous depiction of cities, roads, point source emissions, and back trajectories that play a role in the air pollution/haze that a ffected a large part of the Northeast during this episode.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-9

Figure 4-6. Composite images fr om NASA’s TERRA Satellite on August 13, 2002 showing fine particle pollution/haze.

Note the milky/gray haze due to pa rticle pollution as distinct from the puffy white clouds over broad regions of southern New England and the eastern Mid-Atlantic region.
Figure 4-7. NASA MODIS Terra Satellit e Image, Back Trajectories and NO X Inventory

Geo-referenced activity and inventory data (on top of the satellite images presented above) demonstrating the relationship between observed pollution and upper level winds (driving weather patterns from West to East), mid-level winds (tracking back to major point so urces), and lower level winds (tracking back to major population centers along the East Coast).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-10



### 4.3. Implications for control strategies A 2003 assessment of fine pa rticulate matter by NARSTO o states, “[c]urrent airquality management approaches focusi ng on reductions of emissions of SO 2 , NO X, and VOCs are anticipated to be effective first steps towards reducing PM 2.5 across North America, noting that in parts of California and some eastern urban areas VOC (volatile organic compounds) emissions could be important to nitrate formation.” This conclusion seems to be well sup ported by the historical record which documents a pronounced decline in particulate sulfate concentrations across the eastern United States during the 1990s. The timing of th is observed decline suggests that this is linked to reductions in SO 2 emissions resulting from controls implemented under the federal Acid Rain program beginning in the early to mid-1990s. From 1989 to 1998, SO 2 emissions in the eastern half of the country — that is, includ ing all states within a region defined by the western borders of Minneso ta and Louisiana — declined by about 25 percent. This decline in SO 2 emissions correlated with a de cline of about 40 percent in average SO 2 and sulfate concentrations, as meas ured at Clean Air States and Trend Networks (CASTNet) monitoring sites in the same region over the same time period. In fact, at prevailing leve ls of atmospheric SO 2 loading, the magnitudes of the emissions and concentration changes were not statistically different. This finding s uggests that regional reductions in SO 2 emissions have produced near-pr oportional reductions of particulate sulfate in the eastern Un ited States (NARSTO, 2003) . Reductions since 1990 in precursor SO 2 emissions are likely also responsibl e for a continued decline in median sulfate concentrations in the northeastern Un ited States. Neverthe less, episodes of high ambient sulfate concentrations (with peak levels well above the regional median or average) continue to occur, especially during the summertime when regional transport from the Ohio River Valley is also at its peak. This suggests that further reductions in regional and local SO 2 emissions would provi de significant furthe r air quality and visibility benefits (NARSTO, 2003).

For urban areas of the eastern United St ates, an effective emissions management approach may be to combine regional SO 2 control efforts aimed at reducing summertime PM 2.5 concentrations with local SO 2 and OC control efforts. Local SO 2 reductions would help reduce wintertime PM 2.5 concentrations, while OC reductions can help reduce overall PM 2.5 concentrations year-round. Fo r areas with high wintertime PM 2.5 levels, strategies that involve NO X reductions may also be effective (NARSTO, 2003). Further support for this ge neral approach may be found in a review of several studies by Watson (2002) wh ich concluded that SO 2 emission reductions have in most cases been accompanied by statistically significant reductions in ambient sulfate concentrations. One study (Hus ar and Wilson, 1993) shows that regionally averaged light extinction closely tracks regionally averaged SO 2 emissions for the eastern United States from 1940 through the mid-1980s. Another study by Malm et al. (2002) shows that

o NARSTO was formerly an acronym for the "North Am erican Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone." More recently, the term NARSTO became simply a word mark signifying a tri-na tional, public-private partnership for dealing with multiple features of tropospheric pollution, including ozone and suspended particulate matter. For more information on NARSTO see http://www.cgenv.com/Narsto/

.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-11

regionally averaged emissions and ambient c oncentrations decreased together from 1988 through 1999 over a broad region encompassing the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Ma ssachusetts, Maryla nd, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohi o, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and West Virginia (Watson, 2002).

These studies and available data from the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environment) monitoring network provide st rong evidence that regional SO 2 reductions have yielded, and will continue to yield, reductions in ambient secondary sulfate levels with subsequent reductions in regional haze and associated light extinction. They indicate that reductions in anthropogeni c primary particle emissions will also result in visibility improvements, but that these will not have a z one of influence as large as those of the secondary aerosols (Watson, 2002). Watson (2002) notes that during the 65 year s in which the regional haze program aims to reach its final visibil ity goals, several op portunities to revise this basic control approach will arise through the decadal SIP cycl e. This enables new scientific results to continue to exert a positive influence as states implement ne w regulatory control programs for SO 2 , NO X and VOCs, and as ambient con centrations of these pollutants change relative to each other and relativ e to ambient ammonia levels. As these relationships between species change, atmospheric chemistry may dictate a revised control approach to those prev iously described. Further rese arch on these issues should be a priority for supporting 2018 SIP submissi ons. They include the possibility that:

• Reduction of sulfate in a fully neutra lized atmosphere (excess ammonia) could encourage ammonium nitrate formation.

• Ever-greater emissions reductions could be required to produce a given level of improvement in ambient pollu tant concentrati ons because of nonlinearities in the atmospheri c formation of sulfate.

• Changes in ambient conditions favori ng the aqueous oxidation of sulfate (this pathway largely accounts for the non-linearity noted above) may have implications for future emissions control programs. Causes of changing ambient conditions could incl ude, for example, climate change.

West et al. (1999) examine a scenario for th e eastern United States where PM 2.5 mass decreases linearly with ammonium sulf ate until the latter is fully neutralized by ammonia. Further reductions would free ammonia for combin ation with gaseous nitric acid that, in turn, woul d slightly increase PM 2.5 until all of the nitric acid is neutralized and further sulfate reductions are reflected in lower PM 2.5 mass. This is an extreme case that is more relevant to source ar eas (e.g., Ohio) wher e nitric acid (HNO 3 ) is more abundant than in areas with lower emissions (e.g., Vermont) (Watson, 2002).

In most situations with non-neutralized sulfate (typical of the eastern United States), ammonia is a limiting agent for the formation of nitrate but will not make any difference until sulfate is reduced to the point where it is completely neutralized. At that point, identifying large sources of ammonia emissions will be important. This point is likely to be many years in th e future, however (Watson, 2002).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-12

Based on analyses using the Community Mu lti-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, the aqueous phase production of sulfate in the Northeast appears to be very oxidant limited and hence non-linear. Thus, conditions th at are conducive to a dominance of the gas-phase production pathway drive the summ er peaks in ambient sulfate levels. Nonetheless, the expected reduction in ambi ent sulfate levels resulting from a given reduction in SO 2 emissions is less than proportional overall due to th e non-linearity introduced by the aqueous pathway for sulfate formation (NARSTO, 2003). These nonlinearity effects are more pronounced for haze th an for sulfate deposition, especially at higher sulfate air concen trations (USNPS, 2003). Finally, we note that because visibility in the clearest ar eas is sensitive to even minute increases in particle concentrations, strategies to preserve visibility on the clearest days may require stringent limits on emissions gr owth. In this context, even the dilute emissions from distant sources can be important (NARSTO, 2003)



### 4.4. Conclusion: Simplifying a complex problem A conceptual understanding of fine partic les from a regional perspective across MANE-VU and throughout the eastern U.S. is well understood, yet remains complex due to the multiplicity of source regions (both regional and local), pollutants (SO 2 , NO X , organic carbon, and primary PM 2.5 ), and seasons (summer and winter) that are involved in fine particle formation. Regional approaches to the control of precursor SO 2 and NO X emissions have been started through Title IV of the Clean Air Act, the NO X SIP Call, the CAIR, and the establishment and support of Regional Planni ng Organizations to as sist with Regional Haze Rule compliance. With the modeling f oundation developed for the CAIR program, the USEPA has presented a compelling technical case on the need for additional regional SO 2 and NO X reductions in the eastern U.S. to redu ce particulate levels and protect public health. While states in the North east disagree with the extent of SO 2 and NO X reductions and the timeline for those reductions to occur, the program is an excellent next step toward reducing fine particles in MANE-VU. It is tempting to suggest that the regional control of SO 2 and NO X are the extent of the proble m facing MANE-VU, but as the conceptual description contained in this report demonstrates, the reduction of fine particles in the eastern U.S. requires a careful balance of re gional and local controls for SO 2 , NO X , sources of organic carbon and primary PM 2.5 during both summer and winter. The (relatively) higher emissions of SO 2 and NO X from regions upwind of MANE-VU as well as the long “reach” of sulfate pollution requires continued regional control of these fine part icle precursors. However, local accumulation of SO 2 -derived sulfate, NO X -derived nitrate, and primary PM (mos tly in the form of black carbon/diesel exhaust) can signifi cantly boost urban PM 2.5 levels. Residential wood combustion in rural river valleys can significantly raise PM le vels as well and affect rural visibility in areas near to Class I areas. The balance between regional and local cont rols parallels the balance that needs to be achieved between pollutants. The regiona l contribution to fine particle pollution is driven by sulfates and organic carbo n, whereas the local contribution to PM 2.5 is derivedPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page 4-13

from SO 2 , NO X , organic carbon, and primary PM 2.5 (including black carbon/diesel exhaust). Finally, control strategies which focus on regional SO 2 emissions reductions are needed throughout the summer and winter months, suggesting that a year-round approach to control is needed. Urban nonattainm ent counties with local emissions of NO X and VOC will be driven to reduce these emissions during the summer for ozone benefits, but these same pollutants – as well as primary particulate emissions – contribute to high PM 2.5 levels in winter, suggesti ng that annual controls for a ll of these pollutants make sense in a multi-pollutant context. Finally, residential wood smoke near Class I areas is clearly a winter-only issue, and further cont rols may be desirable near specific Class I sites where organic carbon is a contributor on the 20 percent worst visibility days that occur in winter months. To bring attainment to the current fine particle nonattainment counties and meet reasonable progress goals toward national visibili ty goals, there continues to be a need for more regional SO 2 and NO X reductions coupled with appropriate local SO 2 , NO X , VOC, and primary PM 2.5 (including diesel exhaus t) controls where local accumulation is shown to add to the regional burden of sulfate and nitrate PM 2.5 (primarily in winter). These local controls will vary by location and by season, but the regional control of SO 2 and NO X should be maintained on an annual basis given the contribution of regional sulfate and nitrate to fine particle peaks during both summer and winter months.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-1



# Appendix A: E xcerpts from EPA Guidance Document, Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5 

# , and Regional HazePM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-2



## APPENDIX A: EPA GUIDANCE DOCUMENT EXERPT

11.0 How Do I Get Started? - A “Conceptual Description”

A State/Tribe should start developing info rmation to support a modeled attainment demonstration by assembling and reviewi ng available air quality, emissions and meteorological data. Baseline design values shou ld be calculated at each monitoring site, as described in Section 3. For PM applications , speciated data should be reviewed to get a sense of what component(s) might be contribu ting most significantly to nonattainment or light extinction. If past mode ling has been performed, the emission scenarios examined and air quality predictions may also be useful. Readily available information should be used by a State/Tribe to develop an initial c onceptual description of the nonattainment or reasonable haze problem in the area which is the focus of a modeled demonstration. A conceptual description is instrumental fo r identifying potential stakeholders and for developing a modeling/analysis protocol. It may also influe nce a State’s choice of air quality model, modeling domain, grid cell size, priorities for quality assuring and refining emissions estimates, and the choice of initial diagnostic tests to identify potentially effective control strategies. In general, a c onceptual descri ption is useful for helping a State/Tribe identify priorities and allo cate resources in performing a modeled demonstration.

In this Section, we identify key parts of a conceptual description. We then present examples of analyses which could be used to describe each of these parts. We note that initial analyses may be complemented later by additional efforts performed by those implementing the protocol.

11.1 What Is A “Conceptual Description”?

A “conceptual description” is a qualitative way of characterizing the nature of an area’s nonattainment or regional haze problem. It is best described by identifying key components of a description. Examples are lis ted below. There are 3 different examples. One each for ozone, annual PM 2.5 , and regional haze. The examples are not necessarily comprehensive. There could be other features of an area’s problem which are important in particular cases. For purposes of illustra tion later in the discussion, we have answered each of the questions posed below. Ou r responses appear in parentheses.

11.1.1 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS 1. Is the nonattainment problem primarily a local one, or are regional factors important? (Surface measurements suggest transport of ozone close to 84 ppb is likely. There are some other nonattainment areas not too far distant.)

2. Are ozone and/or precursor co ncentrations aloft also high? (There are no such measurements.)PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-3

3. Do violations of the NAAQS occur at several monitoring s ites throughout the nonattainment area, or are they confined to one or a small number of sites in proximity to one another? (Violations occur at a limited number of sites, located throughout the area.)

4. Do observed 8-hour daily maximum ozone c oncentrations exceed 84 ppb frequently or just on a few occasions? (This varies among the monitors from 4 times up to 12 times per year.)

5. When 8-hour daily maxima in excess of 84 ppb occur, is there an accompanying characteristic spatial pattern, or is there a variety of spatial patterns? (A variety of patterns is seen.)

6. Do monitored violations occur at locations subject to mesoscale wind patterns (e.g., at a coastline) which may differ from the general wind flow? (No.)

7. Have there been any recent major changes in emissions of VOC or NO X in or near the nonattainment area? If so, what changes have occurred? (Yes, several local measures [include a list] be lieved to result in major reductions in VOC [quantify in tons per summer day] have b een implemented in the last five years. Additionally, the area has seen large regional NO X reductions from the NO X SIP call.)

8. Are there discernible trends in design values or other air quality indicators which have accompanied a change in emissions? (Yes, design values have decreased by about 10% at four sites over the past [x] years. Smaller or no reductions are seen at three other sites.)

9. Is there any apparent spatial pattern to the trends in design values? (No.)

10. Have ambient precursor concentrations or measured VOC species profiles changed? (There are no measurements.)

11. What past modeling has been perform ed and what do the results suggest? (A regional modeling analys is has been performed. Two emission scenarios were modeled: current emissions and a substantial reduction in NO X emissions throughout the regional domain. Reduced NO X emissions led to substantia l predicted reductions in 8- hour daily maximum ozone in most locations, but changes near the most populated area in the nonattainment area in question were small or nonexistent.)

12. Are there any distinctive meteorological m easurements at the surface or aloft which appear to coincide with occasions with 8-hour daily maxima greater than 84 ppb? (Other than routine s oundings taken twice per day, ther e are no measurements aloft. There is no obvious correspondence with meteor ological measurements other than daily maximum temperatures are al ways > 85 F on these days.)PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-4

Using responses to the preceding questions in th is example, it is possible to construct an initial conceptual description of the nonattainment area’s oz one problem. First, responses to questions 1 and 11 suggest there is a significant regiona l component to the area’s nonattainment problem. Second, responses to que stions 3, 4, 7, 8, and 11 indicate there is an important local component to the area’s nonattainment problem. The responses to questions 4, 5 and 12 indicate that high oz one concentrations may be observed under several sets of meteorologi cal conditions. The responses to questions 7, 8, and 11 suggest that ozone in and near the nonatta inment area may be responsive to both VOC and NO X controls and that the exte nt of this response may vary spatially. The response to question 6 suggests that it may be appropriate to develop a strategy using a model with 12 km grid cells.

The preceding conceptual description implies that the State/Tribe containing the nonattainment area in this example will need to involve stakeholders from other, nearby States/Tribes to develop and implement a m odeling/analysis protoc ol. It also suggests that a nested regional modeling analysis will be needed to address the problem. Further, it may be necessary to model at least several distinctive types of episodes and additional analyses will be needed to select episodes. Finally, sensitivity (i.e., diagnostic) tests, or other modeling probing tools, will be needed to assess the effects of reducing VOC and NO X emissions separately and at the same time.

11.1.2 Annual PM 2.5 NAAQS 1. Is the nonattainment problem primarily a local one, or are regional factors important? (Surface measurements suggest that only desi gn values in or imme diately downwind of the city violate the NAAQS. However, othe r nearby design values come close to the concentration specified in the NAAQS)

2. What is the relative impor tance of measured primary and secondary components of PM 2.5 measured at sites violating the NAAQS? (Secondary components (i.e., SO 4 , NO 3 , OC) constitute about 80% of the measured mass of PM 2.5 . There are higher concentrations of primary PM 2.5 in the core urban area compared to the suburbs and more rural areas.)

3. What are the most prevalent components of measured PM 2.5 ? (The most important components in ra nked order are mass associated with SO 4 , OC and inorganic primary particulate matter (IP)).

4. Does the measured mix of PM component s appear to roughly agree with mix of emission categories surroundi ng the monitoring sites? (No. Relative importance of measured crusta l material (IP) appears less than what might be inferred from the inventory).

5. Do there appear to be any areas with large gradients of primary PM 2.5 in monitored or unmonitored areas? (Cannot really tell for sources of crusta l material until we resolve the precedingPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-5

inventory/monitoring discrepancy. There are no other obvious major sources of primary particulate matter).

6. Is there any indication of what precursor might be limiting formation of secondary particulate matter? (No indicator species analys es have been performed. Pa st analyses performed for ozone-related SIP revisions sugge st that ozone in this area ma y be limited by availability of VOC).

7. Do monitored violations occur at locations subject to mesoscale wind patterns (e.g., at a coastline) which may differ from the general wind flow? (No.)

8. Have there been any recent major changes in emissions of PM or its precursors in or near the nonattainment area? What? (Yes, measures believed to result in major reductions in VOC and NO X have been implemented in the last 5 years. Reductions in power plant NO X have resulted from the NO X SIP call and SO 2 emissions reductions have resulted from the national program to reduce acid deposition.)

9. Are there discernible trends in design values or other air quality indicators which have accompanied a change in emissions? (The trend appears to be downward, but the mo st recent air quality data has been higher. Overall, the period of record is insufficiently long to tell).

10. Is there any apparent spatial patter n to the trends in design values? (No.)

11. What past modeling has been perform ed and what do the results suggest? (A regional modeling analysis has been performed for ozone and PM 2.5 . Two emission scenarios were modeled: current emi ssions and a substantial reduction in NO X and SO 2 emissions throughout a regional domain. Reduced NO X emissions led to substantial predicted reductions in 8-hour daily maximum ozone in most locations. Modeled SO 2 reductions from the CAIR rule had a st rong impact on sulfate concentrations)

12. Are there any distinctive meteorological m easurements at the surface or aloft which appear to coincide with occasions with PM 2.5 concentrations in excess of 15.0 : g/m 3 ? (Other than routine s oundings taken twice per day, ther e are no measurements aloft. There is no obvious correspondence with meteor ological measurements other than daily maximum temperatures are often > 85F on days with the highest PM 2.5 observations.)

13. Do periods with high measured particulat e matter or components of particulate matter appear to track each other or any other measured pollutant? (There appears to be some correspondence between measured high concentrations of SO 4 and ozone).PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-6

Using responses to the preceding questions in this example, it is possible to construct an initial conceptual description of the nonattainment area’s oz one problem. First, responses to questions 1, 2 and 3 suggest there is a si gnificant regional component to the area’s nonattainment problem. Second, resp onses to questions 1 and 3 indicate there is a local component to the problem. The responses to questions 11,12 and 13 suggest that there may be a link between reducing ozone and reducing particulate matter. Thus, it may be appropriate to assess effects of previously committed to strategies to reduce ozone and national PM control measures before simulating additional control measures. The responses to questions 4 and 5 suggest that it is premature to determine whether a “local area analysis” will be needed. The response to question 7 suggests that it may not be necessary to model with very small grid cells, at least fo r the secondary components of PM 2.5

. The preceding conceptual description implies that the State containing the nonattainment area in this example will need to involve st akeholders from other, nearby States to develop and implement a modeling/analysis pr otocol. It also sugge sts that a nested regional modeling analysis will be needed to address the problem.

11.1.3 Example reasonable progress application 1. What components of particulate matter appe ar to have high concentrations on days with poor visibility? (Mass associated with SO 4 and coarse particulate matter (C M) seem to have the highest concentrations on most such days).

2. What are typical values for the humidity adjustment fact or during the times of year when most of the days w ith poor visibility occur? (Typical values appear to be about “4.0").

3. Does visibility appear to tr ack well among nearby Class I areas? (Yes, but not always).

4. Does poor visibility seem to occur unde r any specific meteor ological conditions? (This information is not readily available).

5. Does poor visibility seem to coincide with high observed concentrations of any particular other pollutant? (There seems to be some correspondence with high regional oz one concentrations)

6. What components of particulate matter appear to have relatively high concentrations on days with good visibility? (Coarse particulate matter and OC)

7. What are typical values for the humidity adjustment factor during times of year when most of the days with good visibility occur? (About “2.3")PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page A-7

8. Does good visibility appear to occur unde r any specific meteor ological conditions? (Don’t know.)

Answers to the preceding questions suggest that strategies to reduce sulfate concentrations and, perhaps, regional ozone concentrations mi ght be effective in reducing light extinction on days when visibility is currently poor. The res ponses suggest that a strategy which focuses on this alone should firs t be tried for the days with good visibility as well. Even though sulfate concentrations appear low on such days, th e fact that sulfates scatter light efficiently (see Equation (6.1)) and relative humidity is still high enough to enhance this effect is wort h considering. Responses suggest that further meteorological analyses would be worthwhile prior to selec ting strategies to simulate with a resource intensive regional model.

It should be clear from the preceding examples that the initial concep tual description of an area’s nonattainment problem draws on read ily available information and need not be detailed. It is intended to help laun ch development and implementation of a modeling/analysis protocol in a productive direction. It wi ll likely be supplemented by subsequent, more extensive modeling and ambi ent analyses performed by or for those implementing the modeling/analysis protocol discussed in Section 12.0.

Questions like those posed in Section 11.1 can be addressed using a variety of analyses ranging in complexity from an inspection of air quality data to sophisticated mathematical analyses. We anticipate the simpler analyses will often be used to develop the initial conceptual descrip tion. These will be followed by more complex approaches or by approaches requiring more extensive data bases as the need later becomes apparent. These analyses are intended to channel reso urces available to support modeled attainment demonstrations onto the most productive path s possible. They will also provide other pieces of information which can be used to reinforce conclusions reached with an air quality model, or cause a reassessment of a ssumptions made previously in applying the model. As noted in Section 7, corroboratory analyses should be used to help assess whether a simulated control strategy is sufficient to meet the NAAQS.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-1



# Appendix B: M onitoring Data from Class I sites in MANE-VU

Below are figures that were developed by Tom Downs of the Maine Department of Environmental Protection. These figures represent baseline monitoring data for the Class I sites (and Washington DC) based on IMPROVE monitoring network data using the EPA approved “default” algorithm for calculating reconstructed extinction and estimating natural background conditions. Thes e statistics may need to be recreated using the alternative methodology approve d by the IMPROVE steering committee and adopted by the MANE-VU states. Glide path graphs were created on the VIEWS website ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ ) using the Annual Summary Trends tool. Seasonal graphs were created from data downloade d from the VIEWS website using the Annual Summary Composition tool and should be upda ted to include 2004 data for a complete description of regional haze baseline data.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-2



## APPENDIX B: MO NITORING DATA FROM CLASS I SITES IN MANE-VU

Figure B-1. Monitoring Data from Acadia NP, ME

April 26, 1995 - Teflon filter was increased from 2.2 sq. cm to 3.5 sq. cm 

### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-3

Figure B-2. Monitoring Data from Brigantine, ME



### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-4

Figure B-3. Monitoring Da ta from Great Gulf, NH



### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-5

Figure B-4. Monitoring Da ta from Lye Brook, VT



### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-6

Figure B-5. Monitoring Data from Moosehorn, ME



### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-7

Figure B-6. Monitoring Da ta from Washington, DC



### Extinction Trendsdv 

### Deciview (dv) TrendsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-8

Figure B-7. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Vi sibility Days at Acadia NP, ME

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Acadia National Park

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 16 days

Summer - 39 days

Spring - 17 days

Fall - 23 days Created by To m Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Acadia National Park

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 19 days

Summer - 15 days

Spring - 24 days

Fall - 35 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-9

Figure B-8. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Vi sibility Days at Brigantine, NJ

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Da ys at Brigantine, NJ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 15 days

Summer - 39 days

Spring - 15 days

Fall - 21 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Da ys at Brigantine, NJ

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 20 days

Summer - 13 days

Spring - 21 days

Fall - 33 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-10

Figure B-9. 20% Worst and Best 2000-2003 Vi sibility Days at Great Gulf, NH

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Great Gulf, NH

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 9 days

Summer - 39 days

Spring - 13 days

Fall - 23 days Created by To m Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Great Gulf, NH

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 28 days

Summer - 7 days

Spring - 17 days

Fall - 29 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-11

Figure B-10. 20% Worst a nd Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Lye Brook, VT

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Lye Brook, VT

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 12 days

Summer - 37 days

Spring - 17 days

Fall - 23 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Lye Brook, VT

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 29 days

Summer - 11 days

Spring - 22 days

Fall - 24 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-12

Figure B-11. 20% Worst a nd Best 2000-2003 Visibility D ays at Moosehorn, ME

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Moosehorn, ME

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 20 days

Summer - 41 days

Spring - 14 days

Fall - 18 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Moosehorn, ME

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 15 days

Summer - 18 days

Spring - 21 days

Fall - 36 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page B-13

Figure B-12. 20% Worst a nd Best 2000-2003 Visibility D ays at Washington, D.C.

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Worst 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Washington, D.C.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 16 days

Summer - 42 days

Spring - 14 days

Fall - 20 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006

Seasonal Analysis of the 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days at Washington, D.C.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Sulfate Nitrate Org Carbon Elem Carbon Soil Coarse MassExtinction (Mm-1) Winter - 22 days

Summer - 9 days

Spring - 26 days

Fall - 31 days Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/02/2006PM2.5and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE-VU Region: A Conceptual DescriptionPage B-14Figure B-13. 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days Speciated Contributions to ExtinctionWashington D.C.176 Mm-1/159 Mm-1/(22 km29.0 dv)Brigantine(25 km27.9 dv)Lye Brook(38 km23.9 dv)108 Mm-1/Great Gulf(Presidential Range)(45 km22.5 dv)Acadia(44 km22.4 dv)94 Mm-1/91 Mm-1/20% Worst VisibilitySpeciated Contributions toExtinction (2000-2003 except forGreat Gulf 2001-2003)Moosehorn(Roosevelt Campobello)(48 km21.4 dv)82 Mm-1/Moosehorn(Roosevelt Campobello)(48 km21.4 dv)82 Mm-1/SiteSulfate NitrateOrg C Elem CSoilCoarse MassAcadia72 9 11 5 0.6 2Moosehorn70 8 14 5 0.5 3Lye Brook72 9 12 5 0.6 2Brigantine68 11 13 5 0.6 4Washington DC61 14 15 7 0.7 2Great Gulf76 3 13 4 0.6 3percent contributon to particle extinctionExtinction = 3*f(RH)*sulfate(f) +1.29*Nitrate(f) + 4*1.4*OC(f) + 10* elementalcarbon (f) + 1* soil(f) +0.6 * coarse massCreated by Tom Downs,Maine DEP-BAQ 12/13/2005PM2.5and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE-VU Region: A Conceptual DescriptionPage B-15Figure B-14. 20% Best 2000-2003 Visibility Days Speciated Contributions to ExtinctionWashington D.C.47.3 Mm-1/30.3 Mm-1/(70 km17.3 dv)Brigantine(101 km13.8 dv)Lye Brook(215 km6.1 dv)8.8 Mm-1/Great Gulf(PresidentialRange)(189 km7.4 dv)Acadia(175 km8.1 dv)11.3 Mm-1/12.8 Mm-1/20% Best VisibilitySpeciated Contributions toExtinction (2000-2003 exceptfor Great Gulf 2001-2003)SiteSulfate NitrateOrgC Elem CSoilCoarse MassAcadia60 9 18 7 1 6Moosehorn54 9 22 7 1 8Lpercent contributon to particle extinctionye Brook57 14 14 7 1 6Brigantine53 13 14 7 1 12Washington DC49 17 16 12 1 5Great Gulf56 9 18 8 1 8Created by Tom Downs,Maine DEP-BAQ 12/13/2005Moosehorn(Roosevelt Campobello)(169 km/8.6 dv)Moosehorn(Roosevelt Campobello)(169 km/8.6 dv)13.9 Mm-1PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-1



# Appendix C: A dditional Considerations for PM 2.5 

# Air Quality ManagementPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-2



## APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PM 2.5 

## AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT

C.1. A veraging times and data interpretation In analyzing the chemical data availabl e for interpreting the air quality event of August 2002, it is important to poi nt out that the use of di fferent averaging times can have a profound effect on our understanding of the progression of any specific episode. Many subtleties of synoptic-sca le meteorology and atmospheric chemistry are “aliased out” of data sets with tempor al resolution greater than 3- 6 hours. These effects are demonstrated in Figure C-1 which show fine aerosol TEOM data from New Haven for the “episode” period August 10-16, 2002. In thes e figures, the hourly TEOM values have been aggregated into 3-, 6- and 24-hour mean values. Average concentrations are inversely proportional to the length of the averaging period and the ratio of peak hourly concentration within a daily average ranges from about 1.5 to 1.75 for this episode.

Figure C-1. Effects of averaging times (or temporal resolution) on time series information

Figure 5.6(a) Unfiltered (hourly) TEOM data from New Haven, Conn.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

8/10/02 0:00 8/11 / 0 2 0 :00 8/12/02 0:00 8/13 / 0 2 0:0

0 8 /14

/ 0 2 0:0

0 8/1 5/02

0:0

0 8/16 /0 2 0:

0 0Fine Aerosol Mass (ug/m3) Figure 5.6(b) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 3-hour filter.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

8/10 / 02 0:00 8/1 1/0

2 0:

0 0 8 /12/02

0 :0 0 8/13/02 0:00 8 / 1 4 / 0 2 0 :0 0 8/15 / 02 0:

0 0 8/1 6/02

0:0

0Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3)

Figure 5.6(c) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 6-hour filter.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

8

/ 10/02 0

: 00 8/11/02 0:00 8 / 1 2/02

0 :0 0 8/13/02 0:00 8/ 1 4/02 0:00 8 / 1 5/0

2 0

:0 0 8 / 1 6 /02 0

: 00Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3) Figure 5.6(d) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 24-hour filter.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

8/10/02 0:00 8/1 1 / 0 2 0

:0 0 8/1 2/02

0 :0 0 8/13/02 0:00 8/14/02 0:0

0 8 / 15/02 0

: 00 8 /1 6/02

0:00Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3)PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-3



### C.2. R ural versus urban PM 2.5 

### mass Comparison of PM 2.5 concentrations from rural areas with those from urban/suburban areas can add significantly to our understanding of the impact on air quality of both urban sources and of medium to long-range fine aerosol transport. To assist with this approach, data from 10 pairs of rural and urban/suburban FRM sites throughout the MANE-VU region we re selected and analyzed.

Table C-1 shows basic site description info rmation including the approximate, straight-line distance between the site pairs. Due to the difficulty in finding a significan t number of urban-rural site pairs that operated on the same sampling schedule, sites w ith a mixture of schedules were used to insure samples representative of the entire MANE-VU region. As a result, three of the 20 sites employed an everyday schedule while two sites sampled every sixth day (the remainder sampled every third day). Data from the three everyday sites were edited so as to include data from the 1-in-3 schedule onl y. In all, a total of 1098 data points were possible from the 10 site pairs for 2002. Of the 1098 possible point-pairs, 951 (87%) were valid and were used in this analysis.

Table C-1. MANE-VU urban-rura l site pair information

State Site No City Land use Location type Longitude Latitude Inter-site Distance

(mi) DE 100051002 Agricultural Rural -75.55560 38.98470 DE 100010002 Seaford Residential Suburban -75.61310 38.64440 24.0

MA 250154002 Ware Forest Rural -72.33472 42.29833 MA 250130016 Springfield Commercial Urban & Center City -72.59140 42.10890 17.6

MD 240030014 Agricultural Rural -76.65310 38.90250 MD 245100049 Baltimore Residential Urban & Center City -76.63750 39.26170 25.2 ME 230052003 Cape Elizabeth Residential Rural -70.20778 43.56083 ME 230010011 Lewiston Commercial Urban & Center City -70.21500 44.08940 37.0

NJ 340218001 Agricultural Rural -74.85470 40.31500 NJ 340210008 Trenton Residential Urban & Center City -74.76360 40.22220 7.7 NY 360010012 Albany Agricultural Rural -73.75690 42.68070 NY 360930003 Schenectady Residential Suburban -73.94020 42.79960 11.7 NY 361030001 Babylon Commercial Rural -73.42030 40.74580 NY 360590013 Bethpage Residential Suburban -73.49060 40.76080 3.3 NY 360130011 Westfield Agricultural Rural -79.60250 42.29080 PA 420490003 Erie Commercial Suburban -80.03860 42.14180 22.2

PA 420030093 Residential Rural -80.02080 40.60720 PA 420030021 Pittsburgh Residential Suburban -79.94140 40.41360 14.0

PA 420290100 Commercial Rural -75.76860 39.83440 DE 100031012 Newark Residential Suburban -75.76170 39.69190 10.0PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-4

As expected, urban/suburban areas, with their rich supply of emission sources, almost always reported higher conc entrations than their nearby sister sites in rural areas. Of the 951 valid data pairs, 660 showed hi gher urban/suburban levels while 291 cases showed higher rural levels. One interesting aspect of the 2002 urban -rural data concerns the pattern in seasonal differences between such site pairs. Figure C-2 shows the difference (urbanrural) between the 10 site pairs as a time series.

Although some rural-to-urban seasonal differences are to be expected, the variation in the magnitude of this difference is surprising. In the warm/hot months, the mean rural/urban difference amounts to no more than ~0.7 μg/m 3 (based on a best-fit 2 nd order polynomial curve), which is a relativel y small differential. However, during the cool/cold months that difference climbs to almost 4 μg/m 3 , demonstrating a total annual seasonal variation of at least 3 μg/m 3 . Because the mean annual concentration of all sites is 12.6 μg/m 3 , an annual variation of 3 μg/m 3 becomes significant. Figure C-2. Difference in FRM data between 10 urban-rural site pairs for 2002

-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

1/2/2002 2/1/2002 3/3/2002 4/2/2002 5/2/2002 6/1/2002 7/1/2002 7/31/2002 8/30/2002 9/29/2002 10/29/2002 11/28/2002 12/28/2002Urban-Rural Conc. (ug/m3)

One explanation for the observed seasona l variation concerns the temporal distribution of local and transported emi ssions. In the summertime, MANE-VU sites repeatedly experience sulfate events due to tr ansport from regions to the south and west. During such events, rural and urban sites throughout MANE-VU record high (i.e., >15 μg/m 3 ) daily average PM 2.5 concentrations. During summer stagnation events, atmospheric ventilation is poor and local em issions are added to the transported burden with the result that concentr ations throughout the region (rural and urban) are relativelyPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-5

uniform. There are enough of these events to drive the urban-rural difference down to less than 1 μg/m 3 during warm/hot months. During the wintertime, strong local invers ions frequently trap local emissions during the overnight and early morning periods, resulting in elevated urban concentrations. Rural areas experience those same inversions but have relatively fewer local sources so that wintertim e concentrations in rural locations tend to be lower than those in nearby urban areas. Medium and long-range fine aerosol transport events do occur during the winter but at a much reduced rate compared to summertime. So, it is the interplay between local and di stant sources as well as me teorological conditions that drive the observed seasonal urban-ru ral difference in FRM concentrations.



### C.3. S easonal relationship between PM 2.5 

### and NO X Because nitrogen oxides (NO X ) can be a good indicator of regional as well as local emissions, NO X data for the MANE-VU region was downloaded from USEPA’s AQS. Ultimately, data from six widely separated MANE-VU NO X sites were selected (one site each in CT, DC, MA, NH, PA and VT ). Sites were selected both for high data capture rates and geographic location. The NO X data were then aggregated into regional averages on a daily basis and compared to PM 2.5 FRM data from 34 “everyday” sampling sites (which were also av eraged on a regional basis). During 2002, there were virtually no periods when regional mean PM 2.5 concentrations rose above 20 μg/m 3 and were not accompanie d by rising (or already high) NO X concentrations. However, as seen in Figure C-3 , NO X concentrations vary widely on an annual basis and tend to occur out-of-sync with fine particle concentrations. Although the min/max extremes of these two pollutants are offset in time, they are highly correlated during some part s of the year. For example, Figure C-4 shows the regional PM 2.5 and NO X data for the coldest (Jan., Feb., Nov., and Dec.) and hottest (May, June, July and Aug.) seasons of 2002. Wintertime NO X and PM 2.5 concentrations are rather well correlated (r 2 =0.67) while summertime concentra tions are not at all linked. This dichotomy can be explained by several co incident effects incl uding: 1) reduced UV radiation during cold months (whi ch prevents photolysis of NO 2 to O 3 ); 2) the increase in space heating requirements from stationary sources (which preferentially increases morning NO X emissions; increased NO X emissions due to “cold-start” mobile source engines and 3) decreased mixing height depths due to reduced solar input (which allows morning concentrations to build quickly). Note that the Spring/Fall PM 2.5 vs. NO X correlation (not shown) lies about mid-way between the winter/summer values shown in Figure C-4

.PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-6

Figure C-3. Regional PM 2.5 and NO X in 2002

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1/1/02 2/1/02 3/ 1/02 4/ 1/02 5/ 1/02 6/ 1/02 7/1/02 8/1/02 9/ 1/02 10/1/02 11 /1/02 12 /1/02NOx (ppbv) PM2.5 (ug/m3) Mean Reg. NOx ( 6 sites) Mean Reg. PM2.5 (34 FRM sites)

Figure C-4. PM 2.5 vs. NO X correlation by season

MANE-VU Regional PM 2.5 vs. Regional NO x - 2002

y = 4.08x - 4.65
R 2 = 0.67

y = 0.13x + 18.23
R 2 = 0.05

0 30 60 90 120 150

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0

PM 2.5 Conc. (ug/m 3 )NOx Conc. (ppb) Winter Months
Summer Months MANE-VU Regional PM 2.5 vs. Regional NO x - 2002

y = 4.08x - 4.65
R 2 = 0.67

y = 0.13x + 18.23
R 2 = 0.05

0 30 60 90 120 150

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0

PM 2.5 Conc. (ug/m 3 )NOx Conc. (ppb) Winter Months
Summer MonthsPM 2.5 and Regional Haze Air Quality Problems in the MANE -VU Region: A Conceptual Description Page C-7