APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**9A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................................................................................. 9A­1** 

**9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE**  **MARKET­SHARE MATRICES** 

**....................................... 9A­1** 

**9A.3 RESULTS** 

**............................................................................................................... 9A­4** 

LIST OF TABLES

**Table 9A.2.1**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Commercial IRL**  **Sockets (65W** 

**BR Lamp**  **Substitution Sensitivity)** 

**............................................................. 9A­2** 

**Table 9A.2.2**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Residential IRL**  **Sockets (65W**  **BR**

**Lamp Substitution**  **Sensitivity)**

**................................................................... 9A­3** 

**Table 9A.2.3**  **Standards­Case Market­Share**  **Matrix for**  **Residential IRL**  **Sockets (10** 

**Percent Lumen**  **Increase Sensitivity)** 

**.......................................................... 9A­4** 

**Table 9A.3.1**  **Commercial Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Cumulative Shipments** 

**Impacts Caused**  **by Standards**  **over the**  **Period 2012–2042**  **(65W BR** 

**Lamp Substitution**  **Sensitivity)**

**................................................................... 9A­7** 

**Table 9A.3.2**  **Residential Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts**

**Caused by**  **Standards over**  **the Period**  **2012–2042 (65W**  **BR Lamp** 

**Substitution Sensitivity)..............................................................................**  **9A­7**

**Table 9A.3.3**  **Residential Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps:**  **Cumulative Shipments**  **Impacts**

**Caused by**  **Standards over**  **the Period**  **2012–2042 (10**  **Percent Lumen** 

**Increase Sensitivity)....................................................................................**  **9A­8**

LIST OF FIGURES

**Figure 9A.3.1**  **Commercial IRL**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipment**  **Forecasts (65W** 

**BR Lamp**  **Substitution Sensitivity)** 

**............................................................. 9A­5** 

**Figure 9A.3.2**  **Residential IRL**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipment**  **Forecasts (65W** 

**BR Lamp**  **Substitution Sensitivity)** 

**............................................................. 9A­6** 

**Figure 9A.3.3**  **Residential IRL**  **Base­Case and**  **Standards­Case Shipment**  **Forecasts (10** 

**Percent Lumen**  **Increase Sensitivity)** 

**.......................................................... 9A­7** 

**9A­i**APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9A.1 INTRODUCTION

**In this**  **appendix, the**  **U.S. Department**  **of Energy**  **(DOE) presents**  **shipment inputs**  **and**

**results for**  **two additional**  **scenarios for**  **incandescent reflector**  **lamps. DOE**  **presents the** 

**standards­case market­share**  **matrices, shipment**  **forecasts, and**  **cumulative shipment**  **impacts for** 

**IRL in**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp**  **substitution sensitivity**  **and 10**  **percent lumen**  **increase sensitivity** 

**scenarios. As**  **discussed in**  **Chapter 9,**  **in the**  **65 Watt**  **BR lamp**  **substitution sensitivity**  **scenario,**

**DOE assumes**  **that a**  **portion of**  **IRL customers**  **purchasing 50W**  **PAR lamps**  **will migrate**  **toward a** 

**lower efficacy**  **65 Watt**  **BR lamp,**  **as it**  **represents a**  **lower first­cost**  **lamp design.**  **In the**  **10**

**percent lumen**  **increase scenario,**  **DOE assumes**  **that a**  **portion of**  **residential IRL**  **consumers will** 

**buy a**  **more efficacious**  **lamp at**  **the same**  **or higher**  **wattage as**  **they do**  **in the**  **base case.**  **This**

**incorporation of**  **non­energy­saving lamp**  **designs results**  **in an**  **overall higher**  **lumen output**  **per**

**IRL in**  **the residential**  **sector. To**  **quantify the**  **percentage of**  **consumers that**  **purchase same** 

**wattage lamp**  **designs, DOE**  **assumes that**  **the average**  **initial lumen**  **output of**  **IRL of**  **the standards** 

**cases is**  **10 percent**  **higher than**  **that of**  **the base**  **case. Appendix**  **5A, 6A,**  **and 7A**  **contain**

**additional engineering,**  **energy consumption,**  **and price**  **results related**  **to these**  **sensitivity**

**scenarios.**

9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES

**DOE constructed**  **market­share matrices**  **to characterize**  **shipments of**  **lamps in**  **the**

**standards case.**  **Table 9A.2.1**  **displays the**  **commercial standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **in the** 

**65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity scenario.**  **As seen**  **below, in**  **this sensitivity,**  **DOE assumes** 

**that at**  **CSL1 and**  **CSL2 approximately**  **7 percent**  **of IRL**  **consumers (specifically,**  **those**

**purchasing the**  **50W PAR**  **30 baseline**  **lamp) migrate**  **to the**  **65W BR**  **lamp by**  **2042. At**  **CSL3 this** 

**percentage increases**  **to 14**  **percent, as**  **the first­cost**  **differential is**  **much larger**  **between the**  **64**

**Watt BR**  **lamp and**  **Improved HIR**  **lamp design.**  **Table 9A.2.2**  **displays the**  **residential standards** 

**case market­share**  **matrix in**  **the 65W**  **BR lamp**  **substitution sensitivity.**  **Similar trends**  **exist in**  **the**

**residential sector**  **as do**  **in the**  **commercial sector.** 

**9A­1**Table 9A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Commercial IRL Sockets (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax Stock in

2011* Stock in

2013** Stock in

2042

$ % % %

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 33**  **21**

**75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **6.16 26**  **16**

Base Case **50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.56 22**  **14**

**70W, 18.0**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 8**  **21**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 6**  **16**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 5**  **14**

Total 100 100

**79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 7.55**  **32 21** 

**66W, 15.9**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 7.55**  **25 16** 

CSL1 **44.3W, 14**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.95**  **16 10** 

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 9**  **21**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 7**  **16**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 4**  **10**

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **2.51 7**  **7**

Total 100 100

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 41**  **41**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.73 32**  **32**

CSL2 **41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **7.12 20**  **20**

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **2.51 7**  **7**

Total 100 100

**66W, 19.8**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 9.05**  **41 41** 

**55W, 19.1**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 9.05**  **32 32** 

CSL3 **40W, 17**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.44**  **14 14** 

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **2.51 14**  **14**

Total 100 100

***Base­case input**  **only.**

 Standards­case**  **input only.** 

**9A­2**Table 9A.2.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax Stock in

2011* Stock in

2015** Stock in

2042

$ % % %

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 41**  **41**

Base Case **75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 32**  **32**

**50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **4.52 27**  **27**

Total 100 100

**79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **41 41** 

CSL1 **66W, 15.9**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **32 32** 

**44.3W, 14**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 5.91**  **20 20** 

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **1.48 7**  **7**

Total 100 100

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 41**  **41**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 32**  **32**

CSL2 **41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.09 20**  **20**

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **1.48 7**  **7**

Total 100 100

**66W, 19.8**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **41 41** 

**55W, 19.1**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **32 32** 

CSL3 **40W, 17**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 7.41**  **14 14** 

**65W, 9.5**  **lm/W, 2,000**  **hrs, Incandescent**  **1.48 14**  **14**

Total 100 100

***Base­case input**  **only.**

 Standards­case**  **input only.** 

**Table 9A.2.3**  **displays the**  **residential standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **in the**  **10 percent**  **lumen**

**increase sensitivity.**  **As seen**  **in the**  **table below,**  **in this**  **sensitivity scenario,**  **DOE assumes**  **that in** 

**the standards**  **case a**  **portion of**  **IRL consumers**  **puchase same­wattage**  **or higher­wattage**  **lamp**

**designs.**

**9A­3**Table 9A.2.3 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Candidate

Standard

Level Lamp Design Price with

Sales Tax Stock in

2011* Stock in

2015** Stock in

2042

$ % % %

**90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 41**  **41**

Base Case **75W, 14.0**  **lm/W, 2,500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 32**  **32**

**50W, 11.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **4.52 27**  **27**

Total 100 100

**79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **41 41** 

**66W, 15.9**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **19 19** 

CSL1 **79W, 16.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 6.52**  **13 13** 

**44.3W, 14**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 5.91**  **22 22** 

**50W, 14.4**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Improved** 

**Halogen 5.91**  **5 5** 

Total 100 100

**70W, 18**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 31**  **31**

**100W, 20.3**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 10**  **10**

**60W, 17.5**  **lm/W, 3,000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 25**  **25**

CSL2 **80W, 18.8**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.70 7**  **7**

**41.3W, 15**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.09 25**  **25**

**50W, 16.5**  **lm/W, 4000**  **hrs, HIR**  **6.09 2**  **2**

Total 100 100

**66W, 19.8**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **34 34** 

**90W, 22.6**  **lm/W, 4000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **7 7** 

CSL3 **55W, 19.1**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **29 29** 

**90W, 22.6**  **lm/W, 4000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.01**  **3 3** 

**40W, 17**  **lm/W, 4,000**  **hrs, Improved**  **HIR 7.41**  **27 27** 

Total 100 100

***Base­case input**  **only.**

 Standards­case**  **input only.** 

9A.3 RESULTS

**Figure 9A.3.1**  **present the**  **shipments forecasts**  **for the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **cases for** 

**commercial IRL**  **in the**  **65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity.**

**9A­4**Shipments(billions) 

### 0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00 Base­Case Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3



### 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9A.3.1 Commercial IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

**Figure 9A.3.2**  **present the**  **shipments forecasts**  **for the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **cases for** 

**residential IRL**  **in the**  **65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity.**

**9A­5**

### 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year IRL Base­Case Forecast

IRL CSL1

IRL CSL2

IRL CSL3

Figure 9A.3.2 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (65W

BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

**Figure 9A.3.3**  **present the**  **shipments forecasts**  **for the**  **base case**  **and standards**  **cases for** 

**residential IRL**  **in the**  **10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **sensitivity.**Shipments(billions) 

### 0.12

0.10

0.08

**9A­6**

### 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12Shipments(billions) Base­Case Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3



### 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 9A.3.3 Residential IRL Base­Case and Standards­Case Shipment Forecasts (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

**Table 9A.3.1**  **through Table**  **9A.3.3 present**  **the cumulative**  **shipment impacts**  **for**

**residential and**  **commercial IRL**  **in the**  **65W BR**  **lamp substitution**  **sensitivity and**  **the 10**  **percent**

**lumen increase**  **sensitivity scenarios.** 

Table 9A.3.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

**1 ­0.157** 

**2 ­0.157** 

**3 ­0.620** 

Table 9A.3.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

**1 ­0.261** 

**2 ­0.261** 

**3 ­0.685** 

**9A­7**Table 9A.3.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Cumulative Shipments Impacts

Caused by Standards over the Period 2012–2042 (10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Candidate Standard Level IRL Cumulative Impacts (billions of lamps)

**1 ­0.340** 

**2 ­0.353** 

**3 ­0.920** 

**9A­8**