GAO-01-495R Military Readiness

United States General Accounting Office

Washington, DC 20548

B-286562

March 16, 2001

The Honorable Curt Weldon

Chairman, Subcommittee on Readiness

Committee on Armed Services

House of Representatives

Subject: Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air Transport

Capability

Dear Mr. Chairman:

This letter conveys updated information on the readiness status of U.S. airlift and

aerial refueling aircraft similar to that provided in our June 2000 report entitled

Military Readiness: Air Transport Capability Falls Short of Requirements. Your office

asked us to provide this data because of your ongoing concern that U.S. mobility

capabilities may be inadequate to quickly transport the military forces and supplies

necessary to execute the National Military Strategy of fighting and winning two

nearly simultaneous major theater wars. Specifically, we are providing the following:

charts showing fiscal years 1997-2000 mission capable data for C-5s, C-141s, C17s, KC-10s and KC-135s compared to the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility

Command’s standards,

tables showing the fiscal year 2000 average mission capable rates, the resulting

shortfalls in airlift and aerial refueling capability at the onset of war based on

the aircraft performing at these rates, and Office of the Secretary of Defense

information relating to wartime surge capability, and

charts showing the C-5, KC-10 and KC-135 not mission capable for supply and

cannibalization rates for fiscal years 1997-2000.
Page 2 GAO-01-495R Military Readiness

We briefed your office on this data on January 25, 2001. As we agreed at that time,

GAO will continue to evaluate the Mobility Requirements Study 2005. If you have

questions, please contact me on (757) 552-8111 or my Assistant Director, Mr. William

Meredith, on (202) 512-4275.

Sincerely yours,

Neal P. Curtin

Director, Defense Capabilities and Management

Enclosure
Enclosure

Page 3 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air TranCapability
Enclosure

Page 4 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Three Measures of Air Transpor

• Number of aircraft required for wartime - the number of aircraft whic

required to meet wartime missions.

• Number of aircraft mission capable in peacetime - the number of m

authorized aircraft that were fully or partially mission capable based on fleet-wide Air Mobility Command Health of Force data.

• Projected military wartime surge capability - the million-ton miles pe

(MTM/D) DOD estimates it has to meet military wartime objectives in thdays of the most demanding wartime operations. Wartime surge is preon:

• full activation of the Air Reserve Component crews and maintenan• temporary deferral of scheduled maintenance activity,• accelerating the return of aircraft in depot status to operational sta• using unit training aircraft for operational missions, and• only grounding aircraft that are not-mission capable for items on th

minimum equipment list.
Enclosure

Page 5 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

C-5 Aircraft Required and Peaceti

Capable, Fiscal Years 

0

102030405060708090

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

Equivalent Aircraft M ission Capable C-5 Aircraft Required

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Shortfall

Number of Aircraft
Enclosure

Page 6 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

C-135 Aircraft Required and 

Mission Capable, Fiscal Year

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

0

50

100150200250300350400

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

Equivalent Aircraft M ission Capable KC-135 Aircraft Required

Shortfall

Number of Aircraft
Enclosure

Page 7 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

KC-10 Aircraft Required and 

Mission Capable, Fiscal Year

05

101520253035404550

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb Ap

Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable KC-10 Aircraft Required

Shortfall

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Number of Aircraft
Enclosure

Page 8 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

C-17 Aircraft Required and 

Mission Capable, Fiscal Year

0

1 02 03 04 05 06 0

Oct9 6 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 9 7 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 9 8 Dec Feb A pr Jun Aug Oct- 9 9 Dec Feb 

E q u ivalen t A ircraft M issio n C ap ab le C -17 A ircraft R eq u ired

Shortfall

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Number of Aircraft
Enclosure

Page 9 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

C-141 Aircraft Required and Peaceti

Capable, Fiscal Years 

0

20406080

100120140160

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable C-141 Aircraft Required

Shortfall

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Number of Aircraft
Enclosure

Page 10 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Air Mobility Command Airlif

 Refueling Aircraft Mission Ca

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.a Average mission capable rates for the C-5, KC-135, and KC-10 were based on rates for fiscal years 1997 – 99. Average mission capablerates for the C-141 and C-17 were based on fourth quarter fiscal year 1999 data because these aircraft are in transition. These rates werecomputed by dividing the number of aircraft mission capable by the total number of primary mission aircraft.b Rate is for the 442 KC-135s assigned to the Air Mobility Command.

Mission capable rates (percent)

Aircraft type

Air Mobility Command

standard wartime rates

FY 1997- 99 Averagea

peacetime rates

FY 20

peac

C-5 75 55 C-17 87.5 66 C-141 80 61 KC-135 85 67b KC-10 85 88 a
Enclosure

Page 11 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Airlift and Aerial Refueling Shortfall Based on Miss

Rates Projected for Wartime and 1995 Re

Million-ton miles per day (MTM/D)Million pounds of fuel per day (MPF/D)

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Mission

Currentpeacetimecapabilitya

1995 Militarywartimerequirement

Projected militarywartime surgecapabilityb

Military wartimecapabilityshortfall

Perc

military wa

sh

C-5 9.17 MTM/D 12.98 MTM/D 9.47 MTM/D 3.51 MTM/D KC-10 3.01 MTM/D 3.08 MTM/D 3.01 MTM/D 0.07 MTM/D C-17 5.09 MTM/D 7.07 MTM/D 6.96 MTM/D 0.11 MTM/D C-141 3.71 MTM/D 4.36 MTM/D 4.01 MTM/D 0.35 MTM/D Programmed Shortfallc 1.71 MTM/D 1.71 MTM/D Total military airlift 20.98 MTM/D 29.20 MTM/Dd 23.44 MTM/Dd 5.76 MTM/Dd KC-135 232 aircraft 402 aircraft 232 aircrafte 170 aircraft KC-10 40 aircraft 41 aircraft 40 aircrafte 1 aircraft Total refueling aircraft 272 aircraft 443 aircraft 272 aircrafte 171 aircraft KC-135 43.1 MPF/D 74.8 MPF/D 43.1 MPF/De 31.7 MPF/D KC-10 30.5 MPF/D 31.3 MPF/D 30.5 MPF/De 0.7 MPF/D Total refueling capacity 73.7 MPF/Dd 106.1 MPF/D 73.7 MPF/Dd,e 32.4 MPF/D aBased on fiscal year 2000 average mission capable rates.bEstimates provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program Analysis and Evaluation based on February 8, 2001 mission capable rates

projected for wartime.

cThe amount expected to be short during the transition between C-141 and C-17 aircraft.dTotals may not add due to rounding.eOSD did not provide projected wartime capability estimates for refueling aircraft.
Enclosure

Page 12 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Airlift Shortfall Based on Projected Wartime Surge 

 Compared to 1995 and 2005 Mobility Re

Source: Wartime surge data provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command Data.

1995 Airlift 2005 Airlift

Total wartime requirement 49.7 MTM/Da 51.1–54.5 MT

Military wartime requirementc 29.2 MTM/D 30.6–34.0 MT

Projected military wartime surgecapability

23.44 MTM/D 23.44 MTM/D

Military wartime capability shortfall 5.76 MTM/D 7.16–10.56 M

Percentage military wartime shortfall 19.73 23.40–31.06

a The 1995 Mobility Requirements Study Bottom Up Review Update cites this airlift requirement.b Mobility Requirements Study 2005 identifies this range of airlift requirements depending on the scenario.c Both studies cite that 20.5 MTM/D will be provided by the civilian fleet. The remaining portion of the requirement is expected to be provided by the military.
Enclosure

Page 13 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Two Indicators of Parts 

• Not Mission Capable Supply Rate (NMCS) - the pe

of possessed hours that aircraft were not mission capfor supply based on monthly fleet-wide Air MobilityCommand Health of Force data.

• Cannibalization Rate - the average number of servic

parts removals per 100 sorties based on monthly fleeAir Mobility Command Health of Force data.
Enclosure

Page 14 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)

C-5 NMCS Rate Compared to the 

Command Standard for Fiscal Years 

05

1015202530

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

C-5 NMCS Rate C-5 Standard NMCS Rate

Excessive NMCS Rate

Rate in Percent

Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure

Page 15 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

C-5 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Com

Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Year

0

1020304050607080

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

C-5 Cannibalization Rate C-5 Standard Cannibalization Rate

Excess Cannibalization

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Acceptable Cannibalization

Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
Enclosure

Page 16 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)

KC-135 NMCS Rate Compared to the A

Command Standard for Fiscal Years 

05

10152025303540

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb 

KC-135 NMCS Rate KC-135 Standard NMCS Rate

Excessive NMCS Rate

Rate in Percent

Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure

Page 17 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

05

1015202530

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb 

KC-135 Cannibalization Rate KC-135 S tandard Cannibalization Rate

KC-135 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Com

 Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Year

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Acceptable cannibalization

Excess Cannibalization

Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
Enclosure

Page 18 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

KC-10 NMCS Rate Compared to the 

Command Standard for Fiscal Year

0123456789

10

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb A

KC-10 NMCS Rate KC-10 Standard NMCS Rate

Excessive NMCS Rate

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Rate in Percent

Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)

Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure

Page 19 GAO-01-495R Military Readi

KC-10 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Com

Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal Year

01234567

Oct96 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 97 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 98 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 99 Dec Feb Ap

KC-10 Cannibalization Rate KC-10 Standard Cannibalization Rate

Excess Cannibalization

Source: GAO Analysis of U.S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.

Acceptable Cannibalization

Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties