p.1 

OAR Box 1852 

Prepped by Keeia Richards 

Document Number: 

20) ll-A-20 

Docket Number: 

A-86-03 

Printed 11/19/2008 2:38:54 PM Sheet 20 of 101 
P.2 

EPA-AA-SDSB-89-01 

Technical Report 

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissi 

Conversion Factors II 

1962-2000 

By 

Paul A. Machiele 

October, 1988 

NOTICE 

Technical Reports do not necessarily represent final EPA 

decisions or positions. They are intended to present 

technical analysis of issues using data which are 

currently available. The purpose in the release of such 

reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical 

information and to inform the public of technical 

developments which may form the basis for a final EPA 

decision, position or regulatory action. 

Standards Development and Support Branch 

Emission Control Technology Division 

Office of Mobile Sources 

Office of Air and Radiation 

U. S. Environmental Protection Agency 
P.3 

-2-

Introduction 

M0BILE4 is a computer program that generates in-use 

emission factors by calendar year, ambient temperature and 

driving situation in units of grams per mile (g/mi) for all 

vehicle classes, which are then used to determine emissions 

inventories in various localities. Because urban areas are 

modelled almost exclusively, urban emission factors are desired 

and generated here. Since heavy-duty engine testing provides 

emissions in terms of grams per brake horsepower-hour 

(g/BHP-hr), brake horsepower-hour per mile (BHP-hr/mi) 

conversion factors are needed to convert the brake-specific 

emission levels into the necessary mile-specific (g/mi) units, 

as illustrated below: 

Emission Factor = Emission Test Data x Conversion Factor 

g _ g x BHP-hr 

mi BHP-hr mi 

This technical report outlines the methodology used to 

determine these conversion factors, as well as providing the 

conversion factors for heavy-duty gasoline and diesel engines 

for the model years 1962 through 2000 (see Table 1). Since 

this report is for the most part an update of the previous 

conversion factor analysis performed for MOBILE3, also shown 

are the conversion factors as calculated in that analysis.[1] 

As can be seen, there is a distinct decrease in the diesel 

fleet average conversion factors for recent and future years, 

which is attributable to the dieselization of the lighter 

classes. A similar effect can also be seen in the gasoline 

fleet since there are fewer and fewer gasoline vehicles in the 

heavier classes. Overall, the heavy-duty fleet is probably not 

getting that much lighter, but the dieselization of the fleet 

has caused both diesel and gasoline fleet average conversion 

factors to decrease. 

The BHP-hr/mi conversion factors were calculated from 

brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC), fuel density, and fuel 

economy (all of which can be measured), because it is difficult 

to measure BHP-hr/mi directly. The equation used was: 

CF (BHP-hr/mi) = P (lb/gal) / (BSFC (lb/BHP-hr) * FE (mi/gal)) 

The emission conversion factors were first calculated by 

gross vehicle weight (GVW) class for both gasoline and diesel 

powered vehicles, as both 3SFC and fuel economy vary with gross 

vehicle weight and fuel type. Diesel and gasoline 

fleet-average conversion factors were then calculated using the 

appropriate vehicle miles traveled (VMT) weighting of the 

class-specific conversion factors. Gasoline and diesel 

fleet-average conversion factors were derived separately 

because MOBILE4 treats them separately. 
-3

-

Table 1 

P.4 

Year 

1962 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1987 

1988 

1989 

1990 

1991 

1992 

1993 

1994 

1995 

1996 

1997 

1998 

1989 

2000 

Fleet-Average 

Conversion Factors (BHP-hr/mi) 

Gasoline 

Diesel 

MOBILE3 

1.29 

1.31 

1.32 

1.33 

1.35 

1.36 37 37 37 37 37 

1.34 

1.31 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0, 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 28 20 12 08 05 01 98 95 95 95 

,96 

,97 

.97 

.97 

.96 

.96 

.96 

.95 

.94 

.94 

.93 

.92 

.92 

.92 

.92 

MOBILE4 

0 

0 

0 

0 

55 54 54 53 52 52 50 48 45 45 44 

,42 

.42 

.31 

.24 

.07 

.06 

.02 

.96 

.94 

.91 

.88 

0.91 

0.90 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0, 0, 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

89 90 90 89 89 

,89 

,89 

.89 

.89 

.89 

.89 

.89 

.89 

.88 

0.92 0.88 

OBILE3 " 

2.74 

2.74 

2.73 

2.72 

2.76 

2.82 

2.88 

2.94 

3.00 

3.08 

.3.15 

3.19 

3.23 

3.27 

3.23 

3.19 

3.07 

2.95 

2.84 

2.72 

2.60 

2.56 

2.51 

2.47 

2.43 

2.38 

2.38 

2.37 

2.36 

2.35 

2.34 

2.33 

2.33 

2.32 

2.31 

2.31 

2.31 

2.31 

2.31 

MOBILE4 

2.85 

2.86 

2.87 

2.89 

2.90 

2.96 

3.00 

3.07 

3.10 

3.16 

3.20 

3.19 

3.21 

3.15 

3.18 

3.25 

3.19 

3.00 

2.72 

2.70 

2.38 

2.28 

2.41 

2.20 

2.21 

2.17 

2.13 

2.10 

2.07 

2.05 

2.03 

2.03 

2.03 

2.04 

2.04 

2.04 

2.04 

2.04 

2.03 
P.5 

-4-

Estimates of historic BSFC and fuel economy figures were 

limited to 1982 and earlier model years due to our dependence 

for in-use fuel economy estimates on the U.S. Census Bureau's 

Truck In-use Survey (TIUS), which is taken every five years. 

Thus, historic class-specific conversion factors for the years 

1982 and earlier may be calculated using the equation given 

above. Future (i.e., post-1982) conversion factors.will not be 

affected by changes in BSFC, as any decrease in BSFC will be 

cancelled out by a corresponding increase in fuel economy. As 

fuel density changes little over time and can be assumed 

constant, the only factors affecting future heavy-duty vehicle 

conversion factors are future non-engine-related fuel economy 

improvements. Future class-specific conversion factors are 

thus estimated by reducing the 1982 conversion factors in 

proportion to the projected increase in fuel economy due to 

non-engine-related factors. For this reason, historic and 

future conversion factors are calculated separately; the former 

using the above equation, and the latter using projected 

non-engine-related fuel economy improvements applied to the 

1982 conversion factors. 

This report begins with a description of the fuel 

densities, engine BSFCs, and vehicle fuel economies used to 

calculate the historic class-specific conversion factors. 

Following this discussion, future non-engine-related fuel 

economy improvements are analyzed and their application to 

historic class-specific conversion factors described. The 

VMT-weighting methodology used to obtain the diesel and 

gasoline fleet-average conversion factors is then presented and 

each factor used in the VMT weighting process described. 

II. Historic Class-Specific Conversion Factors 

As in the previous conversion factors analysis, historic 

class-specific conversion factors were calculated using three 

basic parameters: fuel density, brake-specific fuel 

consumption, and fuel economy, as detailed above. However, for 

the previous analysis, historic data was limited by the 1977 

TIUS, and • as a result historic conversion factors ended at 

1977. For this analysis the 1982 TIUS is the source for 

historical fuel economy estimates, and thus, historical 

conversion factors end with 1982. The methods used to 

determine the fuel density, brake specific fuel consumption, 

and fuel economy are detailed in the following paragraphs. 

A. Fuel Density 

The gasoline and diesel fuel densities used in the 

calculation of historic conversion factors were 6.09 and 7.11 

pounds (lbs) per gallon, respectively. The value for gasoline, 

as seen in Table 2, was taken from an average over the 1982 to 

1985 period of both summer and winter fuel density data 

presented in the NIPER gasoline surveys.[2] The diesel fuel 
P.6 

- 5 -

Table 2 

Year 

82 

83 

84 

85 

Average 

Gasoline 

6.107 

6.093 

6.083 

6.085 

6.09 

Diesel 

7.098 

7.131 

7.102 

7.114 

7.11 
P.7 

-6-

density also shown in Table 2 was taken from an average over 

the same period of data presented in the MVMA fuel surveys. [3] 

The values used are very similar to those used in the past for 

M0BILE3.C1] The fuel density values are not changed for each 

year even though the necessary information exists to do so, 

since both. M0BILE4 and this conversion factor analysis are 

model year specific, while the changes in fuel ^density are a 

calendar year phenomenon. It may be possible to take the 

calendar year changes in fuel density into account with more 

extensive programming, but the benefits of incorporating these 

small changes (a less than one percent increase in accuracy) 

are outweighed by the complexity of the task to perform such 

work. 

B. Brake-Specific Fuel Consumption 

The class-specific gasoline and diesel BSFCs for the 1962 

to 1977 period were taken directly from the conversion factor 

analysis done for M0BILE3.[1] Since manufacturers are no 

longer required to provide this information as part of the 

engine certification process, more recent engine BSFC data was 

not readily available. As a result, the major manufacturers 

were contacted by phone in June, 1987, and asked to provide 

information on the BSFCs of their current (1987) models. The 

manufacturers provided the necessary information, but many of 

them also asked that the individual engine data not be 

presented in this report. As a result, it is not shown here. 

The BSFC information was then sales weighted to achieve 

class-specific BSFC values for 1987. These values in turn were 

used in conjunction with the 1977 and previous values to 

interpolate the values for the 1978 to 1982 period. 

BSFC values for transit buses were obtained by assuming 

that the majority of buses in the past used Detroit Diesel 

Allison (DDA) 6V-71N engines, which have been progressively 

replaced with the DDA 6V-92TA engines. Some of EPA's in-house 

test data over the bus central business district cycle revealed 

that the 6V-71N engine obtained a BSFC of 0.557 lb/BHP-hr, 

while the 6V-92TA obtained approximately 0.47 lb/BHP-hr over 

the same cycle. By using estimates of annual sales of these 

two engines provided by DDA, the model year specific BSFCs for 

the class could be estimated. The BSFC values for commercial 

buses utilized the same methodology with the exception that the 

transient cycle was chosen to be more representative for this 

class of bus. This resulted in somewhat.lower BSFCs since the 

6V-71N has a BSFC of approximately 0.529 lb/BHP-hr over the 

transient cycle, and the 6V-92TA a BSFC of approximately 0.46 

lb/BHP-hr over the transient cycle. The BSFC values for the 

school buses were calculated by sales weighting the class 

specific truck data based on the class specific sales of school 

buses from MVMA sales data.[4] The BSFC values for all classes 

for the years 1962 through 1987 are shown in Table 3. 
P.8 

-7-

Table 3 

Historic BSFC (lb/BHP-hr) 

Year Clas32B Class3-5 Class6 Class7 Class8A Class8B Transit Commer-cia 1 School 

,49 .557 .529 * 

,49 .557 .529 * 

,49 .557 .529 * 

.49 .557 .529 * 

,49 .557 .529 * 

,48 .557 .529 * 

.48 .557 .529 * 

.47 .557 .529 * 

.47 .557 .529 * 

.46 .557 ' .529 * 

.46 .557 .529 * 

.46 .557 .529 * 

.45 .557 .529 * 

.45 .557 .529 * 

.44 .553 .526 * 

.43 .548 .522 .452 

.43 .544 .519 .452 

.43 .540 .515 .450 

.42 .535 .512 .448 

.42 .525 .503 .447 

.42 .515 .496 . .446 

.41 .505 .488 .445 

.41 .498 .482 .446 

.40 .492 .477 .445 

.40 .485 .472 .445 

.39 .479 .467 .444 

,70 .70 .70 .70 .70 .70 .70 

79 .70 .70 .70 .70 .70 * .70 .70 .699 

80 .69 .69 .70 .70 .69 * .70 .70 .697 

81 .69 .69 .69 .69 .69 * * * .694 

* * * .691 

* * • * .686 

* * * .678 

* * * .670 

* * * .564 

* * * .660 

DIESEL 

62 

63 

64 

65 

66 

67 

68 

69 

70 

71 

72 

73 

74 

75 

76 

77 

78 

79 

80 

81 

82 

83 

84 

85 

86 

87 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

.54 

GASOLINE 

62-78 .70 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.51 

.70 

82 

83 

84 

85 

86 

87 

* 

.68 .68 

.64 .64 

.63 .63 

.63 .63 

.62 .62 

.62 .62 

No Sales 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

49 

49 

43 

47 

47 

46 

46 

46 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

45 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.48 

.48 

.48 

.47 

.47 

.47 

.46 

.46 

.46 

.46 

.45 

.45 

.45 

.45 

.44 

.44 

.44 

.44 

.44 

.44 

.44 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.49 

.48 

.48 

.47 

.47 

.46 

.46 

.46 

.45 

.45 

.44 

.43 

.43 

.43 

.43 

.42 

.42 

.42 

.41 

.41 

.41 

.41 

.69 

.69 

.68 

.67 

.66 

.66 

.69 

.68 

.57 

.66 

.65 

.65 

.68 

.66 

.64 

.64 

.63 

.63 
P.9 

-8-

C. Fuel Economy 

The model year specific fuel economies for all truck 

classes except for class 2B were obtained by smoothing the data 

in the analysis of the 1982 TIUS done by Energy and 

Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA). [5] The 1982 TIUS did not 

distinguish" Class 2B from Class 2 as a whole. Only Class 2B 

fuel economy is pertinent to heavy-duty vehicle emissions, as 

Class 2A vehicles are treated as light-duty trucks by EPA 

regulations, and in M0BILE4. In order to estimate Class 2B 

fuel economy it was assumed, as in the M0BILE3 conversion 

factor analysis, that Class 2B fuel economy is 10 percent less 

than Class 2A fuel economy due to increased vehicle size. 

Diesel and gasoline fuel economies were determined separately 

by assuming that the ratio of Class 2B diesel BSFC to gasoline 

BSFC also represents the ratio of their fuel economies. 

Commercial and school bus fuel economies were taken from 

the Federal Highway Administration (FHA) Highway Statistics.[6] 

These are fleet values instead of model year specific values, 

but they represent the best data available, and these values do 

not change significantly with time. As a result, they are 

thought to be fairly representative of the model year fuel 

economies. Transit bus values were then estimated as 85.8 

percent of the commercial bus value, based on 1978 through 1983 

data from the American Public Transit Association (APTA) fact 

book.[7] The transit and commercial bus fleet fuel economies 

were divided into gasoline and diesel by assuming that the 

Class 8A truck diesel advantage factors were applicable. The 

school bus fuel economies from the FHA data were broken up into 

gasoline and diesel by assuming that the diesel buses obtain 30 

percent better fuel economy than their gasoline counterparts. 

This assumption was based on a review of 1980 through 1982 

diesel advantage factors for Class 5 through Class 7 trucks, 

the engines of which make up the school bus market. All of 

these fuel economies are shown in Table 4. 

The fuel economies presented in EEA's analysis of the TIUS 

are national fuel economies (i.e., the result of a combination 

of rural and urban driving).[5] MOBILE4, however, is primarily 

used to model urban emissions, and as a result requires urban 

fuel economy values. The conversion factor analysis done for 

MOBILE3 looked at this issue. Although some information 

suggested that urban fuel economy should be lower than rural 

fuel economy, other information suggested that due to lower 

vehicle loads in urban areas, the fuel economy in an urban area 

may be very similar to that in a rural area. Because of this, 

and the fact that reliable data on this topic was limited, it 

was decided that the nationwide fuel economy values available 

from the TIUS adequately represented the urban fuel economy. 

Since no further work in this area has been done, this analysis 

for MOBILE4 also will assume that the TIUS fuel economy values 

are representative of urban driving. 
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-10-

D. Summary of Historic Conversion Factors 

In summary, historic class-specific conversion factors 

were based on: fuel densities from NIPER and MVMA fuel 

surveys,[2,3] BSFCs from the MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis 

and manufacturer information,[1] and fuel economies from the 

1982 TIUS for trucks and the FHA Highway Statistics for 

buses.[5,6] These gasoline and diesel class-specific 

conversion factors are listed in Tables 5 and 6. The 

class-specific conversion factors are then used as the basis 

for the prediction of future class-specific conversion factors, 

which is described below. 

Ill. Future Class Specific Conversion Factors 

Post-1982 class-specific gasoline and diesel conversion 

factors (see Tables 5 and 6) were estimated using 1982 

class-specific conversion factors and projected future 

non-engine-related fuel economy improvements. Engine-related 

fuel economy improvements affect both BSFC and fuel economy 

(BSFC decreases as fuel economy increases) ahd, thus, do not 

affect the conversion factor. Future conversion factors are 

calculated by dividing the historic conversion factor by 1.0 

plus the non-engine-related fuel economy improvement (as a 

fraction) that is predicted to occur between the 1982 base year 

and the year in question. 

A. Future Non-Engine Related Fuel Economy Developments 

For the MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis several fairly 

detailed studies of future non-engine-related fuel economy 

improvements were conducted and submitted to EPA. Most of the 

information used economic and cost/benefit analysis to project 

the penetration of the fuel-economy improving devices into the 

future. The data and estimates were reviewed and those which 

seemed reasonable were used. Non-engine related fuel economy 

improvements accepted for the analysis included the use of 

weight reduction, radial tires, aerodynamic add-on devices, 

drivetrain lubricants, improved fan drives, overdrive, 

electronic transmission control, and speed control devices. 

Since that time little new information has become 

available on which to base new estimates. Some new information 

was available concerning the use of radial tires and 

aerodynamic devices, but it was of sufficient detail only to 

show that the values used in the MOBILE3 analysis were 

reasonable.[8,9]. Some information on the penetration of fuel 

economy improvement devices from a survey performed by the 

University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 

(UMTRI) was provided by the Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 

Association (MVMA) and the Engine Manufacturers Association 

(EMA) in a meeting held March 7, 1988.[10] Unfortunately, it 

was not in a form which enabled it to be incorporated into this 
P.12 

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P.14 

-13-

analysis. UMTRI subsequently provided the information to EPA 

in a more usable form. [11] However, due to the short time 

frame required for its incorporation, the small effect expected 

to result from its incorporation, and a number of questions as 

to how it should be used, it has not been incorporated into the 

new conversion factor analysis at this time. 

One such question involves how well a vehicle owner's 

perception of his vehicle's design reflects reality when it is 

often based on sales promotions. For example, even though a 

vehicle is marketed as being aerodynamic, how aerodynamic it 

really is when compared to other vehicles is not addressed. A 

number of truck owners responded affirmatively to the question 

of whether their vehicle had an aerodynamic cab design even 

though their trucks were from the pre-1980 period, a period 

known for non-aerodynamic designs. A second question involves 

how well the effectiveness of a vehicle owner's fuel saving 

device compares with the effectiveness attributed to that 

device by independent research when the designs can be 

significantly different. For some categories such as radial 

tires, the difference is probably rather small, but for 

aerodynamic devices, or fuel efficient lubricants, the 

difference can be extremely large. A third question involves 

how gasoline vehicles should be treated since only diesel 

vehicles were surveyed. Diesel vehicles tend to accumulate 

more miles in a given year, and are driven more in line-haul 

applications. As a result, the use of fuel saving devices 

tends to be more cost effective for them than for gasoline 

vehicles. A fourth question is how to project the penetration 

rates into the future where they are applied. In addition to 

other problems associated with extrapolations, the drop in fuel 

prices in late 1985 caused the fuel economy devices to be less 

cost effective and therefore less likely to be utilized. An 

additional difficulty with incorporating the information is how 

to treat fuel saving devices which appear to be a calendar year 

phenomena rather than a model year phenomena. M0BILE4 

currently has the capacity to treat only model-year specific 

changes. The time required to make the necessary changes to 

incorporate calendar year effects as well goes beyond the 

required deadline for completion of M0BILE4. 

As a result of the difficulties with incorporating the 

UMTRI information, the penetration rates and fuel economy 

improvements assumed in the MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis 

were accepted for use in MOBILE4. The penetration rates 

determined in the NIPER survey are typically slightly higher 

than the M0BILE3 projections, however, this seems logical since 

only diesel vehicles were surveyed, and the M0BILE3 penetration 

rates are for both gasoline and diesel vehicles. As a result 

the differences between the UMTRI data and the information used 

in the M0BILE3 analysis may be smaller than would appear. The 

UMTRI information limited to those devices incorporated in the 

M0BILE3 analysis is summarized in Appendix A. 
P.15 

-14-

Due to the drastic change in the fuel price structure 

which occurred late in 1985, many of the fuel economy 

improvements are no longer economically attractive for many of 

the vehicle applications. As a result, the projections of 

device penetration into the truck market beyond 1986 are no 

longer valid. For this reason, the MOBILE3 projections were 

only used for the 1982 to 1986 time frame, and no 

non-engine-related fuel economy improvements were assumed 

beyond 1986. As this approach was presented at the MOBILE4 

workshop held in Ann Arbor on November 10, 1987, and no data 

other than the UMTRI survey was forthcoming to show otherwise, 

no non-engine-related fuel economy improvements are projected 

beyond 1986. 

The estimates of fuel economy improvements here as for 

M0BILE3 were derived according to GVW class (Classes Ilb-IV or 

light heavy-duty vehicles (LHDVs), Classes Vl-VIIIa or medium 

heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and Class VHIb or heavy 

heavy-duty vehicles (HHDVs)) as specific improvements will 

affect each class differently. These improvements are all 

detailed and referenced in Tables 7 through 9, and the net fuel 

economy improvements shown in Table 10. Although the market 

penetration rates of the fuel economy improvement devices in 

Tables 7 through 9 were assumed to affect the fleet as a whole, 

improvement devices were assumed to be applied first in the 

long-range applications of each class where they would be most 

economically attractive, then the short-range, and then the 

local applications. As a result of differences in the 

distribution of gasoline and diesel vehicles in long-range, 

short-range, and local usage categories, the overall fuel 

economy improvements as seen in Table 10 are different for 

gasoline vehicles than for diesel vehicles. Explanations of 

the selection of the penetration rates and associated fuel 

economy improvements associated with each device exist in the 

MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis and are not repeated here.tl] 

B. Application of Non-Engine-Related Fuel Economy 

Improvements 

Since a fuel economy saving device will typically be 

applied where it is most cost effective, the above 

non-engine-related fuel economy improvements were applied first 

in the high-mileage, long-range applications, second in the 

short-range applications, and last of all in the lowest 

mileage, local applications. The breakdown of trucks into 

these usage categories as seen in Table ll is based on data in 

the 1982 TIUS.[5] Since the estimates of fleet penetration 

were not fuel specific, the only differences between the net 

fuel economy improvements for gasoline and diesel vehicles 

arises from the different weighting of the individual fuel 

economy improvements due to different long-range, short-range, 

and local distributions of gasoline and diesel vehicles. 
-15-

P.16 

Table 7 

na -g TTB-IV—Light Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

Future~^n^Enqine Related Fuel Economy Improvements, 

Weight Reduction 

% Penetration 

Source % FE Imprv. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 

% panaj-r^Hnn (cumulative) 

M0BILE3[1] 6.6 

M0BILE4 6.6 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

50 

2000 

50 

50 

Radials & Advanced Radials 

Source % FE Imprv. 1982 

MOBILE3[l] 1.4 (radial) 55 

MOBILE4 1.4 55 

MOBILE3U] 0.0 (adv. rad) 0 

MOBILE4 0.0 0 

% Penetration (cumulative) 

1983 1984 1985 1986 2000 

58 

58 

0 

0 

61 

61 

0 

0 

' 64 

64 

0 

0 

67 

67 

0 

0 

90 

67 

0 

. 0 

Aerodynamics (add-on) None 

Aerodynamics (body) 

Source % FE Imprv. 1982 

MOBILE3[l] 0 0 

MOBILE4 0 0 

% Penetration (cumulative) 

1983 

0 

0 

1984 

0 

0 

1985 

0 

0 

1986 

0 

0 

2000 

0 

0 

Drivetrain Lubricants 

Source % FE Imprv, 

MOBILE3[l] 1.5 

MOBILE4 1.5 

1982 

0 

0 

%ppnetration (cumulative) 

1983 

7 

7 

1984 

13 

13 

1985 

20 

20 

1986 

27 

27 

2000 

100 

27 

Accessories (None) 
P.17 

-16-

Table 7 (cont'd) 

Class IIB-IV—Light Heavy-Duty Vehicles (cont'd) 

Future Non-Engine Related Fuel Economy Improvements 

Automatic Overdrive 

Source % FE Imprv. TUT " U31 1984 Ilii 1986 

% Penetration (cumulative) 

MOBILE3[l] 5.0 

MOBILE4 5 . 0 

0 

0 

3 

3 

6 

6 

10 

10 

13 

13 

2000 

48 

13 

Manual Overdrive 

Source % FE Imprv. 

MOBILE3[l] 5.0 

MOBILE4 5 . 0 

1982 

10 

10 

% PonPtration (cumulative) 

1983 

12 

12 

1984 

14 

14 

1985 

16 

16 

1986 

18 

18 

2000 

40 

18 

Electronic Transmission Control 

Source % FE Imprv. 1982 

MOBILE3[l] 0.0 0 

MOBILE4 0 

% Penetration (cumulative) 

1983 

0 

0 

1984 

0 

0 

1985 

0 

0 

1986 

0 

0 

2000 

0 

0 
P.18 

-17-

Table 8 

Class VT-VTTTa—Medium Heaw-Duty Vehicles 

Futur~e~N5n~-Enqine Related Fuel Economy Improvements 

Weight Reduction (none) 

Radials 

Source % FE Imprv. 

MOBILE3[l] 3.2 

MOBILE4 3.2 

Advanced Radials 

Penetration (cumulative) 

1982 

14 

14 

1983 

14 

14 

1984 

14 

14 

1985 

14 

14 

1986 

14 

14 

% Penetration (cumulative) 

2000 

0 

14 

source * FE imprv. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 2000 

- i 9- 3 4 30 

MOBILE3[l] 6.0 . 0 1 2 

MOBILE4 6.0 0 1 2 3 

Aerodynamics (body) - none 

Aerodynamic 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Drivetrain 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Fan Drives 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Speed Conti 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

:s l 

% 

[add-on) 

FE Imprv. 

2.5 

2.5 

Lubricants 

% FE Imprv. 

% 

:ol 

% 

1.5 

1.5 

FE Imprv. 

5.3 

5.3 

FE Imprv. 

6.0 

6.0 

1982 

5 

5 

1982 

0 

0 

1982 

50 

50 

1982 

0 

0 

% : 

1983 

5 

5 

% 

1983 

7 

7 

% 

1983 

60 

60 

% 

1983 

1 

1 

Penetration 

1984 

6 

6 

Penetration 

1984 

13 

13 

Penetration 

1984 

70 

70 

Penetration 

1984 

2 

2 

(cumulative) 

1985 

6 

6 

(cumu 

1985 

20 

20 

(cumu 

1985 

80 

80 

(cumu 

1985 

3 

3 

1986 

7 

7 

lative) 

1986 

27 

27 

lative) 

1986 

90 

90 

ilative) 

1986 

4 

4 

2000 

20 

7 

2000 

100 

27 

2000 

100 

90 

2000 

15 

4 
P.19 

Class 

-18-

Table 9 

VIlib—Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicle: 

Future Non-Engine Related Fuel Economy 

Weiqht Reduction (none) 

Radials 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Advanced Ra 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

% FE Imprv. 

6.8 

6.8 

.dials 

% FE Imprv. 

10.2 

10.2 

1982 

65 

65 

1982 

1.7 

1.7 

Aerodynamics (body) - none 

Aerodynamic 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Drivetrain 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

Fan Drives 

Source 

MOBILE3U] 

MOBILE4 

Speed Conti 

Source 

MOBILE3[l] 

MOBILE4 

:s (add-on) 

% FE Imprv. 

2.5 

2.5 

Lubricants 

% FE Imprv. 

1.5 

1.5 

% FE Imprv. 

6.8 

6.8 

:ol 

% FE Imprv. 

5.0 

5.0 

1982 

22 

22 

1982 

0 

0 

1982 

98 

98 

1982 

8 

8 

% Penetration 

1983 

62 

62 

% 1 

1983 

5 

5 

% : 

1983 

24 

24 

% 

1983 

7 

7 

% 

1983 

98 

98 

% 

1983 

10 

10 

1984 

58 

58 

Penetration 

1984 

10 

10 

Penetration 

1984 

27 

27 

Penetration 

1984 

13 

13 

Penetration 

1984 

99 

99 

Penetration 

1984 

11 

11 

Impro 

(cumu 

1985 

54 

54 

(cumu 

1985 

15 

15 

(cumu 

1985 

29 

29 

vements 

lative) 

1986 

50 

50 

lative) 

1986 

20 

20 

lative) 

1986 

32 

32 

(cumulative) 

1985 

20 

20 

(cumu 

1985 

99 

99 

1986 

27 

27 

Llative) 

1986 

100 

100 

(cumulative) 

1985 

13 

13 

1986 

14 

14 

2000 

0 

50 

2000 

70 

20 

2000 

58 

32 

2000 

100 

27 

2000 

100 

100 

2000 

50 

14 
-19 -

TABLE 10 

ANNUAL FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENTS (RELATIVE TO 1982) 

YEAR 

DIESEL 

83 

84 

85 

86 

87 

88 

89 

90 

91 

92 

93 

94 

95 

96 

97 

98 

99 

2000 

CLASS 2E 

1.00092 

1.00182 

1.00279 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

1.00456 

GASOLINE 

83 

84 

85 

86 

87 

88 

89 

90 

91 

92 

93 

94 

95 

96 

97 

98 

99 

2000 

1.00087 

1.00171 

1.00367 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1.00684 

1 CLASS 3 t-| t-| 

rH rH rH 1 rH t-i ri 

1 

1 I-H M t-i M r-i l-l 

rH 

1.00086 

1.0017 

1.00339 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

1.00643 

CLASS 4 r-l t-l M 

1 r-l 

rH t-l 

rH 1 i-i ri 

1 H l-i r-i 

1 

1 h-i 

1.00087 

1.00172 

1.00308 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

1.00547 

CLASS 5 M f-i 

1 I-H I-H r-i t-l 

1 

1 

rH rH h-i r-i t-i l-i 

rH r-i 

1 

1.00112 

1.00319 

1.00614 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

1.00986 

CLASS 6 

1.00823 

1.01838 

1.02669 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.03338 

1.00838 

1.01598 

1.02353 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

1.03073 

CLASS 7 

1.0077 

1.01541 

1.02318 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.03091 

1.00681 

1.01294 

1.02041 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

1.02774 

CLASS 8A 

1.00975 

1.01788 

1.02615 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.03428 

1.00695 

1.014 

1.02115 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

1.02875 

CLASS 8B 

1.00085 

1.00354 

1.00462 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1.00735 

1 

1 M 

1 iH M t-i 

1 rH 1 t-i i-i l-i r-i t-i t-i 

rH rH 

TRANSIT 

1 r-i 

1 t-i t-i r-i 

1 t-i ri r-i t-i t-i r-i 

1 

1 

1 

1 rH t-i l-i r-i t-i l-l r-i l-H 1 rH l-i 

1 M t-i r-i 

1 l-i t-i 

1 

COMMERCIA 

1 M M r-i r-l M r-l 

1 

1 r-i M 

1 t-l I-H 

rH r-l 

1 rH 1 I-H r-i t-i 

rH l-i 

1 t-i 

1 . rH I-H M l-i r-i M I-H 

1 r-i 

SCHOOL t-> 

1 

1 M 

1 

1 t-i I-H 

rH rH t-i t-i 

rH r-i l-i t-i t-l M l-i l-i l-i 

rH ri l-i 

1 ri t-i t-i 

rH l-i ri l-i 

1 r-i l-i r-i 
P.21 

•20-

Vehicle Class 

Class 2 

Class 3 

Class 4 

Class 5 

Class 6 

Class 7 

Class 8A 

Class 8B 

Range 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Table 11 

1982 TIUS Vehicle Stock and VMT 

By Class, Range, and Fuel Type 

Diesel 

Stock Avg VMT 

19573 

3383 

2126 

7817 

1781 

379 

3000 

569 

0 

3914 

1458 

307 

41270 

20527 

3826 

113119 

41889 

11493 

142493 

58534 

44179 

247518 

231957 

253282 

13077 

30387 

29853 

15482 

36298 

53414 

16558 

28662 

NA 

16752 

34487 

30582 

17489 

28009 

46970 

19643 

34705 

52420 

19163 

41006 

79133 

30802 

56621 

87750 

Gaso^ 

Stock 

8802070 

1362678 

412753 

45922 

7393 

543 

147078 

25239 

5536 

256128 

28325 

3356 

718706 

95819 

14052 

103120 

18553 

2599 

67339 

7504 

1700 

6662 

1610 

521 

Line 

Avg VMT 

10834 

13805 

13178 

5596 

13439 

6472 

7090 

13669 

8101 

6420 

13256 

12803 

8214 

15151 

15565 

10746 

18763 

23129 

8599 

16934 

11093 

12953 

25380 

95892 
P.22 

-21-

If the percent of the fleet affected was less than the 

percent of vehicles used for long-range transport, then only 

long-range vehicles were credited with fuel economy 

improvements. The percent of fleet affected had to be greater 

than both the combined long-range and short-range vehicle use 

fractions in order to credit any fuel economy improvement to 

the urban (local) vehicles. The overall effect - of a given 

technology is dependent on the degree that the technology is 

applied throughout the class and on the breakdown of the class 

between the various use categories. The computer program used 

to perform these calculations is shown in Appendix B. 

After all of the future non-engine-related fuel economy 

improvements are calculated for each class and time period, 

they are applied to the most recent historic class-specific 

(1982) conversion factor to yield future class-specific 

conversion factors. Some of the fuel economy improvements 

discussed had already penetrated a portion of the fleet by 

1982, and their increasing benefits were realized later as a 

larger percent of the fleet incorporated those improvements. 

This 1982 baseline penetration was subtracted from the 

penetration of each future year to obtain the net percent 

improvement from 1982 to the year in guestion. These future 

class-specific conversion factors are shown in Tables 5 and 6. 

IV. Fleet-Average Conversion Factors 

Fleet-average conversion factors were calculated by VMT 

weighting the class-specific conversion factors. The VMT 

weighting factor for each class was determined by normalizing 

the product of: 1) the HDV sales fraction, 2) the diesel or 

gasoline sales fraction, 3) the annual VMT per vehicle, and 4) 

the urban travel fraction. The resulting diesel and gasoline 

VMT-weighting factors are listed in Tables 12 and 13. The 

individual factors that make up the VMT weighting factor are 

discussed in the paragraphs below. 

A. Sales Fractions 

Historical class-specific truck sales figures for the 1962 

to 1971 timeframe were calculated from the sales fractions used 

in the MOBILE3 conversion facors analysis and an estimate of 

the entire fleetwide truck sales from the MVMA fact book.[12] 

For the 1972 to 1986 timeframe, the MVMA fact sheets were 

relied on for the class-specific sales . of all trucks sold 

domestically in the U.S., with the exception of Class 2B, Class 

8A, and Class 8B.[4] For Classes 8A and 8B, the MVMA fact 

sheets were relied on for the total Class 8 sales, but this was 

broken up into Class 8A and 8B by using the sales information 

in the EEA conversion factors report, and the Department of 

Energy's 13th Periodical Report[13,14] (for the years where 

data was available) to determine the ratio of Class 8B to Class 

8 Sales. Class 2B sales were taken from the 13th Periodical 
-22-

TABLE 12 

DIESEL VMT WEIGHTING FACTORS 

YEAR CLASS 2B 

62 0 

63 0.000298 

64 0.000281 

65 0.000534 

66 0.000956 

67 0.000583 

68 0.000302 

69 0 

70 0 

71 0 

72 0 

73 0 

74 0 

75 0 

76 0 

77 0.001142 

78 0 

79 0.038501 

80 0.118076 

81 0.166079 

82 0.279754 

83 0.340036 

84 0.278909 

85 0.359162 

86 0.345845 

87 0.360157 

88 0.373600 

89 0.386721 

90 0.399826 

91 0.406272 

92 0.413538 

93 0.411888 

94 0.410507 

95 0.408283 

96 0.408190 

97 0.409439 

98 0.410069 

99 0.411282 

ininr, n 412563 

CLASS 3 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

.001857 

001955 

001983 

001960 

001866 

001695 

001048 

000492 

000097 

000376 

001082 

001109 

000178 

000880 

000890 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

CLASS 4 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

.006265 

.006603 

.006572 

.006448 

.006187 

005770 

003499 

001600 

000335 

000350 

000209 

000196 

000177 

000316 

000002 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

CLASS 5 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0. 

0 

0. 

0. 

.029096 

030574 

028644 

025693 

023233 

020407 

014995 

007377 

001551 

001196 

000688 

000732 

000433 

000525 

000170 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

CLASS 6 

0.059262 

0.074583 

0.078960 

0.076819 

0.079105 

0.080735 

0.072603 

0.064548 

0.058239 

0.043095 

0.026896 

0.028316 

0.032625 

0.041553 

0.054580 

0.052112 

0.045888 

0.049611 

0.035671 

0.043903 

0.025049 

0.023077 

0.025132 

0.025226 

0.016942 

0.026149 

0.026481 

0.026723 

0.026816 

0.027334 

0.027707 

0.028121 

0.028482 

0.028687 

0.028563 

0.028844 

0.029189 

0.029544 

0.030087 

CLASS 7 CLASS 8A 

0.288106 0.056916 

0.250074 0.058430 

0.215354 0.058719 

0.188052 0.059259 

0.166828 0.054712 

0.148593 0.050608 

0.135289 0.048928 

0.121463 0.046530 

0.110512 0.044494 

0.109401 0.044928 

0.090385 0.049568 

0.087184 0.053043 

0.072546 0.053362 

0.108279 0.053745 

0.085276 0.062639 

0.100055 0.067025 

0.117802 0.061700 

0.116016 0.053913 

0.174960 0.041751 

0.143025 0.039112 

0.185028 0.029118 

0.149811 0.060202 

0.149432 0.063873 

0.156651 0.060630 

0.166952 0.083013 

0.176706 0.051024 

0.179669 0.049775 

0.182468 0.049151 

0.184817 0.048092 

0.185261 0.047459 

0.184945 0.046719 

0.187778 0.046790 

0.189331 0.046877 

0.188937 0.046888 

0.188955 0.047005 

0.187976 0.046862 

0.187136 0.046684 

0.185162 0.046522 

0.183749 0.046196 

CLASS 8B TRANSIT 

0.433105 0.102715 

0.470605 0.087329 

0.504553 0.086106 

0.538508 0.084195 

0.564296 0.084051 

0.593169 0.081145 

0.641956 0.066947 

0.680810 0.063071 

0.727843 0.046619 

0.716442 0.068596 

0.749545 0.067097 

0.752974 0.062592 

0.730991 0.089289 

0.581230 0.173583 

0.649996 0.119146 

0.723383 0.045608 

0.697124 0.061664 

0.675116 0.052130 

0.518107 0.087514 

0.503144 0.080496 

0.390423 0.064281 

0.329455 0.071731 

0.422003 0.042274 

0.337899 0.037123 

0.306912 0.047108 

0.310679 0.043951 

0.294812 0.043514 

0.280237 0.042241 

0.266575 0.040978 

0.260521 0.040270 

0.254793 0.039642 

0.252939 0.039538 

0.253071 0.038608 

0.255623 0.038458 

0.256155 0.038396 

0.256428 0.037602 

0.256509 0.037614 

0.257152 0.037639 

0.257247 0.037687 

COMMERCIA 

0.022674 

0.019544 

0.018825 

0.018528 

0.018760 

0.017292 

0.014427 

0.014105 

0.010304 

0.015611 

0.014524 

0.013850 

0.020393 

0.039884 

0.027297 

0.010626 

0.015381 

0.012963 

0.018687 

0.016865 

0.014142 

0.015285 

0.009160 

0.008378 

0.010202 

0.009665 

0.009569 

0.009245 

0.009160 

0.009001 

0.008634 

0.008611 

0.008591 

0.008558 

0.008319 

0.008328 

0.008331 

0.008336 

0.008347 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0; 

0' 

0 

0 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

0. 

SCHOOL 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

.000045 

.000438 

.001747 

.005229 

.007371 

.012201 

010398 

.009212 

.014928 

.023022 

.021665 

.022576 

.023211 

023734 

023879 

024020 

024331 

024528 

024562 

024411 

024516 

024464 

024359 

024120 
-23-

YEAR CLASS 2B 

62 0.084704 

63 0.094014 

64 0.105457 

65 0.116464 

66 0.138557 

67 0.135989 

68 0.154827 

69 0.175493 

70 0.195991 

71 0.196513 

72 0.192881 

73 0.224874 

74 0.234297 

75 0.357016 

76 0.409473 

77 0.649578 

78 0.651758 

79 0.683093 

80 0.794112 

81 0.805366 

82 0.862236 

83 0.894882 

84 0.867980 

85 0.880005 

86 0.886304 

87 0.881406 

88 0.884543 

89 0.886511 

90 0.888117 

91 0.888427 

92 0.889070 

93 0.890468 

94 0.891933 

95 0.893674 

96 0.895312 

97 0.896593 

98 0.897280 

99 0.898241 

2000 0.898844 

CLASS 3 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0. 

0 

0 

0. 

0. 

0. 

.019007 

.018488 

018080 

017485 

015221 

013409 

013048 

012866 

011357 

043598 

122343 

101750 

019508 

051386 

107640 

046816 

051236 

029579 

009218 

000556 

0 

0 

0 

024472 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

CLASS 4 

0.057896 

0.056286 

0.054385 

0.052400 

0.046251 

0.041699 

0.039422 

0.037710 

0.035418 

0.036727 

0.021419 

0.016300 

0.017550 

0.016731 

0.000220 

0.005082 

0.009031 

0.003989 

0.000042 

0.000033 

0.000021 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

TABLE 13 

GASOLINE VMT 

CLASS 5 

0.296950 

0.288189 

0.282254 

0.274245 

0.241192 

0.213045 

0.201771 

0.192051 

0.180033 

0.138186 

0.077660 

0.067018 

0.047243 

0.030592 

0.020512 

0.007271 

0.005816 

0.005145 

0.003479 

0.004084 

0.002756 

0.001928 

0.008223 

0.006260 

0.009106 

0.009063 

0.009021 

0.008983 

0.008950 

0.008962 

0.008967 

0.008994 

0.008895 

0.008926 

0.008806 

0.008801 

0.008673 

0.008662 

0.008529 

CLASS 6 

0.258296 

0.250137 

0.246712 

0.244112 

0.265965 

0.293627 

0.301649 

0.312592 

0.321358 

0.338954 

0.373808 

0.387429 

0.472006 

0.370605 

0.331035 

'0.220045 

0.206740 

0.193553 

0.091797 

0.100729 

0.040117 

0.034206 

0.031890 

0.019374 

0.018660 

0.023061 

0.021805 

0.020853 

0.019858 

0.019595 

0.019350 

0.018765 

0.018288 

0.017940 

0.017559 

0.017593 

0.017789 

0.017972 

0.018257 

WEIGHTING FACTORS 

CLASS 7 

0.089215 

0.086321 

0.086043 

0.085580 

0.091582 

0.099727 

0.106938 

0.116054 

0.124531 

0.117825 

0.091790 

0.081510 

0.069016 

0.058600 

0.041806 

0.030924 

0.035991 

0.045587 

0.062725 

0.060668 

0.070993 

0.051175 

0.071845 

0.059063 

0.073662 

0.077695 

0.077691 

0.078123 

0.078533 

0.079254 

0.079614 

0.079414 

0.079098 

0.078179 

0.077417 

0.076467 

0.076067 

0.075123 

0.074368 

CLASS 8A 

0.008790 

0.009960 

0.011445 

0.012909 

0.015694 

0.018955 

0.022077 

0.025928 

0.029962 

0.028507 

0.029358 

0.027387 

0.026355 

0.013915 

0.011488 

0.007820 

0.007277 

0.007229 

0.004381 

0.003948 

0.002088 

0.001388 

0.001904 

0.001120 

0.001229 

0.000456 

0.000246 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

CLASS 8B 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

110036 

117392 

122425 

122826 

113609 

106574 

089531 

068340 

041503 

041946 

042843 

047901 

056166 

029876 

019029 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

TRANSIT 

0.026182 

0.021901 

0.021059 

0.019333 

0.017085 

0.014703 

0.009465 

0.006480 

0.002770 

0.004172 

0.003984 

0.004143 

0.007129 

0.010033 

0.007993 

0.001818 

0.002719 

0.001724 

0.001525 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

COMMERCIA SCHOOL 

0.005779 

0.004901 

0.004604 

0.004254 

0.003813 

0.003133 

0.002040 

0.001449 

0.000612 

0.000949 

0.000862 

0.000916 

0.001628 

0.002305 

0.001831 

0.000423 

0.000678 

0.000428 

0.000325 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0.043140 

0.052407 

0.047530 

0.050386 

0.051025 

0.059133 

0.059226 

0.051031 

0.056460 

0.052617 

0.043046 

0.040765 

0.049096 

0.058935 

0.048968 

0.030218 

0.028749 

0.029667 

0.032390 

0.024612 

0.021786 

0.016418 

0.018156 

0.009702 

0.011035 

0.008316 

0.006690 

0.005528 

0:004540 

01003759 

0.002995 

0.002357 

0.001784 

0.001279 

0.000904 

0.000544 

0.000189 

0 

0 
P.25 

-24-

Report, as that was the most recent source for strictly Class 

2B new vehicle registrations. (Class 2B new vehicle 

registrations were assumed to be representative of class 2B 

domestic sales.) 

Historical transit bus sales were taken from the APTA 

transit fact book.[7] Commercial bus sales were ^assumed to be 

82 percent of transit bus sales based on fleet registrations. 

School bus sales were taken from the MVMA fact sheets in 

similar fashion as the truck sales. Since the 1962 to 1971 

values for school buses were not included in the M0BILE3 work, 

and were not available in our MVMA fact sheets, they were 

estimated based on the size of the school bus fleet given in 

the FHA Highway Statistics.[6] 

Future class sales were determined by taking the 

historical sales and projecting them forward in a manner 

similar to that used in the M0BILE3 analysis. Class 2B was 

projected using the 13th Periodical Report.[14] Classes 3 and 

4 sales had gone to zero by 1982. As no information was found 

to suggest otherwise, the sales for these classes was assumed 

to remain zero. Class 5 sales had been projected to go to zero 

in the M0BILE3 analysis. However, recent history has shown 

this not to be true. As a result of no available precedent for 

projecting Class 5 sales, the additive two percent increase per 

year in sales which had been assumed for Class 6 in the EEA 

conversion factor analysis was assumed for this analysis to be 

representative of Class 5 as well.[13] The future sales 

projections which were used in the MOBILE3 analysis for Classes 

6 and 7 were used here as well, with the exception that new 

starting points were selected based on the sales information 

available for recent years. Class 8A was projected using a 

historically based fraction of 9.38 percent of the total of 

classes 7 and 8, while class 8B was projected using the 13th 

periodical report,[14] with the exception that the values were 

modified downward to account for differences seen in the 

historical data between registrations from the 13th Periodical 

Report and MVMA sales. Transit and commercial bus sales were 

projected assuming an additive two percent increase every 

year. School bus sales were projected using an extrapolation 

of the historical data. 

Once all of these model year specific class-specific sales 

were estimated, the corresponding sales fractions could be 

determined. Historical fractions no longer match those 

presented in the M0BILE3 conversion factors report due to the 

addition of the two classes of school buses and commercial 

buses. The resulting sales and sales fractions are listed in 

Tables 14 and 15 respectively. 
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-27-

B. Diesel Fractions and Gasoline Fractions 

The 1962 to 1982 diesel sales fractions used to calculate 

the VMT-weighting factors are identical to those used in the 

MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis, and were based on factory 

sales by U.S. domestic manufacturers and exports from Canada to 

the U.S. The gasoline fractions are simply 1.0 minus the 

diesel fraction. For the 1983 to 1986 time frame, the MVMA 

fact sheets used for determining the total class sales were 

used with the exception that once again estimates for Class 2B 

relied on the 13th Periodical Report.[4,14] 

Future diesel penetration rates into the individual 

classes were projected from the sales information as described 

above. With the exception of Class 6, all of the truck classes 

were assumed to have the same diesel penetrations in the year 

1997 as in the MOBILE3 analysis. This assumption was not 

practical for Class 6 due to the much higher dieselization of 

this class in recent years than had been assumed in the MOBILE3 

analysis. Instead, since the sales data as seen in Table 14 

showed that Class 7 vehicles may be replacing Class 6 vehicles, 

the 1997 penetration for Class 7 was also assumed for Class 6. 

Transit and commercial buses were assumed to remain all diesel, 

as they have already been completely diesel for a number of 

years, and this is not expected to change. Neither EEA nor the 

MOBILE3 conversion factor analysis had projected school bus 

sales. Historical MVMA sales data showed that in the span of 

just 10 years since diesel engines entered the school bus 

market, they have already reached nearly 70 percent 

penetration. As a result, by extrapolating this historical 

data, school bus sales were projected to become 100 percent 

diesel by 1999. Both historical and future diesel penetrations 

for trucks and buses are shown in Table 16. 

C. Annual Vehicle Miles Travelled 

EEA's analysis of the 1982 TIUS provided class-specific, 

fuel-specific annual VMTs per vehicle for long-range, 

short-range, and local applications individually as seen in 

Table 11.[5] These values represent the 1982 calendar year VMT 

per vehicle of the vehicles surveyed in the analysis. Since it 

is known that diesel penetration affects the average annual VMT 

per vehicle, the EEA calendar-year values were converted to 

model year specific VMT per vehicle values using the model year 

specific diesel penetrations developed in the previous 

section. An example of this conversion (for Class 2B for the 

1986 model year) follows. 

To begin this calculation, the Class 2B vehicle stock and 

VMT per vehicle values were taken fr^m the 1982 TIUS. 
-28-

P.29 

TIUS 

Vehicle Diesel 

Range Stock 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Total 

19573 

3383 

2126 

25082 

TIUS TIUS 

Gas Total 

Stock Stock 

8802070 8821643 

1362678 1366061 

412753 414879 

10577501 10602583 

TIUS 

Diesel 

Distribution 

0.7804 

0.1349 

0.0847 

1.0000 

TIUS 

Diesel/Gas 

VMT/Vehicle 

13077/10834 

30387/13805 

29853/13178 

The diesel sales fraction for 1986 Class 2B trucks was 

then taken from Table 16 and multiplied by the total TIUS stock 

to determine the number of vehicles (out of a fleet the size of 

the TIUS fleet) that should be diesel for the 1986 model year. 

To determine the breakdown of these vehicles among the local, 

short-range, and long-range categories, it was then assumed 

that gasoline vehicles switch over to diesel among these 

categories in the ratio in which diesel vehicles already 

existed in those categories until the long-range application 

became completely diesel. At that time, those that would have 

been added to the long-range category were added to the 

short-range category until it was completely diesel. Any 

additional diesel vehicles beyond this were all added into the 

local category. From this, the number of additional diesels 

(or fewer gasoline trucks) over and above that determined in 

the TIUS can be calculated, as well as the remaining gasoline 

trucks. 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Total 

1986 Total 

Diesel 

Stock 

2459799 

Additional 

Diesel 

Stock 

1900053 

328443 

206221 

2434717 

Net 

Gasoline 

Stock 

6902017 

1034235 

206532 

8142784 

At this point, these fuel specific and range specific 

vehicle stocks were multiplied by the corresponding annual VMTs 

(also shown in Table 11). Diesel vehicles which had been 

gasoline were assumed to have the annual VMT of the gasoline 

vehicles which they replaced, so that switching fuels did not 

increase the total VMT of the vehicle class. 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Total 

1986 Diesel 

Fleet VMT 

(Billions) 

20.841 

4.637 

2.781 

28.259 

1986 Gasoline 

Fleet VMT 

(Billions) 

74.776 

14.278 

2,722 

91.776 
P.30 

-29-

Tabl e 16 

Diese l Sale s Fraction s 

Year Class2B Class3- 5 Class6 Class7 Class8A Class8B Transit Commercial School 

,547 .547 .547 0.0 

" .436 .616 .595 ° -° U -° 4 2 'IJI 'fie T95 '-595 .595 0.0 

63 -001 .018 -063 .436 .616 .595 ^ ^ ^ Q 

6 4

 '° 0 1 * 0 2 2 -° . At "„__ '690 • .690 .690 0.0 

65 .002 .026 .105 .447 .632 .690 ^ Q Q 

66 -003 -029 .100 .413 .583 .721 O Q 

67 .002 .031 .094 .7 9 .535 .751 ^ 

5 8

 -° 0 1 " ^ 'J " "348 :« ; '-867 .867 

5 9

 ° '.J -.070 3 ^ .470 .925 .925 .925 

7 0

 ° '°,°,l ;o54 .34 . -482 .923 .923 

.031 .348 .492 

.034 .382 .540 

74 0 -004 .038 .415 .586 .„ - -- - ^ QQ 

" ° -°° 3 •!-.! -j: ; .492 ".923 .923 

7

* 0 -°° 4 -" ^ •_!! I. . *920 ,920 .920 

««* .038 .415 .586 .y^u • »*« 

«-. i TA O dQ 2 .92 3 .y^ j .H..- J 

7 2

 ° -° 0 3 -°n i 382 540 921 .921 .921 0.0 

•004 .034 .382 .540 .*<i _ 

7

* 0 -005 .041 .449 .-- - •-- - >gi g 0> 0 

76

 ° -°° 3 ^ol 5748 ".J?; i T -TM -943 7 7

 -

0 0 1

 ° 'Z 6 5 7 4 1 0 .943 .943 -011 

7 8

 ° ° ' .11 AIB 1 0 .965 -965 -051 

79

 '° 4 1 _ '..I. [HI iS8

80 ! 1.0 -979 .979 .081 0 .242 .3 " •« - ;• - 1§ 0 .291 

81 122 0 -309 .589 .865 1.0 1-0 J-« 

8 1

 •" . " 377 .580 .889 1.0 1-0 1-0 • » 2

 ° -

3

°

9

 -

5 8 9

 'III n 1 0 LO -316 

- -

1 6 2

 ° >37 7 ,58 ° o J 1 0 1 0 LO -342 

83 .184 0 -399 .617 .962 1.0 1.0 ^ 

•198 0 -493 .589 .962 1 0 1.0 1 0 ^ 

.216 0 -579 .627 .973 1.0 1.0 <6g Q 

86 .232 0 ." / .°* ' •« - ; " 1- 0 .745 

87

 -

2 5 ° ° 'HI -HI 9 0 1 0 

88 -260 0 .610 .646 994 ^ ^ 

8 9

 -

2 7 ° ° fi 6 62 1 0 1.0 1.0 LO -861 

9 0

 -

2 8 ° ° 1 , 6 0 1 0 1.0 LO LO ' 8 8 6 

91 -290 0 -656 .670 1.0 i. u 9L 0 

92 .300 0 -668 .677 1.0 1.0 1-0 1 >g2 g 

93 .300 0 -679 .684 1.0 1.0 1-0 1 >g4 6 

94 .300 0 -688 .689 1 0 1.0 1.0 1 

95 .300 0 -695 .694 1.0 1.0 1-0 >g _ 2 

96 .300 0 -699 .698 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 ^ 

97 .300 0 -700 .700 1.0 1.0 1-0 1 >gg 4 

98 .300 0 -700 .700 1.0 1.0 1-0 i Q 

99 .300 0 .700 .700 1.0 1.0 1.0 I Q 

2000 .300 0 -700 .700 1.0 1-0 1-0 
P.31 

-30-

At this point, by merely dividing the total VMT for 

all vehicle ranges by the corresponding model year specific 

vehicle stocks, estimates of the Class 2B 1986 model year 

diesel and gasoline average annual VMTs could be determined. 

Local 

Short 

Long 

Avg 

1986 Diesel 

Avg Annual 

VMT/Veh 

10857 

13974 

13348 

11488 

1986 Gasoline 

Avg Annual 

VMT/Veh 

10834 

13805 

13178 

11271 

As a result of this analysis, the average annual VMT for 

an entire class (gas and diesel) remains constant while they 

change for both gasoline and diesel vehicles individually. 

This is reasonable, since a trend to more diesel vehicles 

should not cause a greater number of miles to be driven by an 

entire fleet. A similar analysis was then performed for all 

vehicle classes for all model years of concern. 

The TIUS information did not include buses, so an 

equivalent annual VMT per bus had to be determined. The value 

for transit buses was obtained from data in the APTA transit 

fact book,[7] while the values for the commercial and school 

buses were obtained from the FHA Highway Statistics. [6] These 

values, however, may not be entirely appropriate for inclusion 

into a data base that consists mostly of trucks, since the life 

expectency of a bus is typically longer than that of a truck. 

Lifetime VMT per vehicle is actually a more appropriate measure 

of a vehicle's contribution to a model year's lifetime 

emissions. This is true because the conversion factors are 

determined by model year and apply throughout the entire life 

of that model year's vehicles. When vehicles' lives are the 

same in terms of years, the two approaches (annual and lifetime 

VMT) yield the same results. But since the lives of buses (in 

years) are longer than other heavy-duty vehicles, the annual 

approach would underestimate their contribution to their model 

year's fleet-wide lifetime emissions. Thus, an equivalent 

annual bus VMT was estimated by multiplying the average annual 

Class 8B VMT per vehicle of 57,136 miles by the ratio of 

lifetime bus VMT to lifetime Class 8B VMT. Due to a lack of 

any other means of estimating the lifetime VMT of the buses, an 

estimate was determined by dividing the annual fleet VMTs by 

the corresponding new bus sales over a range of 9 to 19 years 

for the different bus classes. This was done for all three bus 

classes as shown in Tables 17 through 19. The resulting annual 

VMT per vehicle values for both trucks and buses for all model 

years can be seen in Tables 20 and 21. 
P.32 

-31-

Table 17 

Year 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1985 

Transit Bus Annual VMT per Vehicle 

New Sales 

2500 

2228 

2230 

1424 

2514 

2904 

3200 

4818 

5261 

4745 

2437 

3805 

3440 

4572 

4059 

2962 

4081 

3444 

3296 

Total/Avg 29503.0 63920 

HHDT Estimated Lifetime VMT [1] 

Ratio 

HHDT Annual VMT 

Corrected Transit Annual VMT/Vehicle 

Fleet 

(Mill 

1526. 

1508. 

1478. 

1409. 

1375. 

1308 

1370 

1431 

1526 

1581 

1623 

1630 

1633 

1677 

1684 

1668 

1677 

1621 

1771 

VMT 

ions) 

0 

2 

3 

3 

5 

0 

4 

0 

0 

4 

3 

5 

6 

.2 

.6 

.8 

.8 

.9 

.3 

VMT/Sales 

61Q.4Q0 

676930 

662915 

989677 

547136 

450413 

428250 

297011 

290059 

333277 

666106 

428515 

474884 

366842 

415028 

563403 

411125 

470935 

537409 

461561 

600000 

0.77 

57136 

44000 

Transit data taken from Reference 7. 
P.33 

Year 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

-32-

Table 18 

mmmercial Bus Annual VMT per Vehicle 

Fleet VMT 

(Millions) 

1122.0 

1317 

1313 

1454 

1491 

1822 

1855 

1908 

1970 

6 

7 

5 

4 

8 

,4 

.2 

.2 

New Sales 

4472 

4033 

2145 

3501 

3199 

3612 

3166 

2458 

3224 

Total/Avg 14255.8 29810 

HHDT Estimated Lifetime VMT [1] 

HHDT Annual VMT 

Corrected Transit Annual VMT/Vehicle 

VMT/Sales 

25089.4 

326705 

612448 

415452 

466208 

504651 

586039 

776322 

611104 

478222 

600000 

Ratio 0.797 

57136 

455M 

Bus data taken from Reference 6. 
P.34 

Year 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

-33-

Table 19 

School Bus Annual VMT per Vehicle 

Fleet VMT New Sales VMT/Sales 

(Millions) 

2500 32921 759439 

2862 29129 98253 

2950 28915 102023 

2991 28645 104416 

2980 27273 109266 

2900 28532 101640 

2875 21017 136794 

3062 22270 137494 

3098 21356 145065 

Total/Avg 26218 

HHDT Estimated Lifetime VMT [1] 

240058 109215 

600000 

HHDT Annual VMT 

Corrected Transit Annual VMT/Vehicle 

Bus data taken from Reference 6. 

Ratio 0.182 

57136 

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P.37 

-36-

D. Urban Travel Fractions 

The M0BILE3 conversion factor analysis utilized TIUS data 

similar to that used above for the annual VMT per vehicle 

calculations to determine class-specific, fuel-specific, model 

year specific urban travel fractions. The model year specific, 

range-specific fleet VMTs calculated in the example, above were 

reweighted based on the assumption that only 85 percent of a 

vehicle's-VMT is in its primary use category; the remaining 15 

percent being split equally between the other two categories. 

The fraction of VMT which was local was then assumed to be the 

urban travel fraction. 

Although this method is still possible using the data from 

the 1982 TIUS, more accurate information has since become 

available. The University of Michigan Transportation Research 

Institute (UMTRI) performed a survey supplemental to the 1982 

TIUS in which they contacted 8000 truck owners and traced four 

days of operation on maps to determine actual truck usage 

patterns. The fraction of vehicle miles for each class within 

the boundaries of urban areas with populations of 50,000 or 

more was assumed to be the urban travel fraction for that 

class. They did not survey class 2B trucks. As a result, the 

values for class 3-5 straight trucks will be used as a 

surrogate for class 2B. They also did not survey buses. 

Therefore, transit buses were assumed to be entirely urban. 

Commercial and school bus urban travel fractions were taken 

from an average of FHA data.[6] 

The urban travel fractions obtained from the UMTRI data 

are likely to be much more accurate for those vehicle classes 

surveyed than the values obtained from the TIUS, since no 

assumptions as to the percent of travel in a vehicle's primary 

use category, or as to what constituted urban travel had to be 

made. Unfortunately, this method provided only 1985 calendar 

year urban travel fractions, and could not easily be used to 

determine model year specific values. As a result, although it 

is a more accurate measurement of the actual urban travel 

fraction than was assumed from the TIUS data, it still has 

inherent inaccuracies due to model year specific effects which 

cannot be accounted for. But since the model year to model 

year variation tended to be tather small, the accuracy of 

measurement is thought to be of greater importance. The urban 

travel fractions for both gasoline and diesel vehicles are 

shown in Table 22. 

V. Summary of Results 

The fleet-average emission conversion factors (in units of 

BHP-hr/mi) used in MOBILE4 are listed in Table 1. MOBILE4 

class-specific conversion factors are listed in Tables 5 and 

6. The non-engine-related fuel economy improvements detailed 

in Tables 7 through 9, and summarized in Table 10, were applied 
P.38 

-37-

Table 22 

Urban Travel Fractions [10] 

Vehicle Class 

Class 2B 

Class 3 

Class 4 

Class 5 

Class 6 

Class 7 

Class 8A 

Class 8B 

Transit 

Commercial 

School 

Gasoline 

0.45 

0.44 

0.44 

0.44 

0.31 

0.46 

0.25 

0.08 

1.00 

0.26 

0.34 

Diesel 

0.64 

0.45 

0.45 

0.45 

0.53 

0.51 

0.42 

0.26 

1.00 

0.26 

0.34 
-38-

to the 1982 class-specific conversion factors to develop the 

post-1982 class-specific conversion factors. The past and 

future class-specific conversion factors were weighted by urban 

vehicle miles travelled to calculate the fleet average 

conversion factors. The weighting factors used are detailed in 

Tables 12 and 13. Figure 1 illustrates the comparison between 

the MOBILE3 and M0BILE4 historic and future gasoline and diesel 

fleet average conversion factors. 

The projected future fleet-average conversion factors show 

a steady decrease as time goes on due to increased fuel 

economy. Diesel conversion factors decrease more rapidly than 

gasoline conversion factors. Current M0BILE4 fleet average 

conversion factors are lower than those projected by MOBILE3. 

This arises mainly due to the fact that Class 2B diesel sales 

have increased, and gasoline sales in the heavier classes have 

decreased, causing heavier weighting of vehicles with lower 

conversion factors. 

VII. Recommendations 

The future gasoline and diesel conversion factors 

presented here are based on estimates and projections. There 

are several areas where the present degree of uncertainty is 

fairly high and where further data could significantly reduce 

the uncertainty of the results. 

The most important area of concern is fuel economy. 

Better documented data on current urban fuel economy is needed, 

since the TIUS only addresses nationwide fuel economy and the 

accuracy of the submittals by surveyees is unknown. Equally 

important is the need for further information on the effects of 

future technology on urban fuel economy improvements. This is 

the main factor in projecting future conversion factors, 

assuming fuel density will not change significantly in the next 

25 years. The urban fuel economy impact of technological 

developments in areas such as radial tires, lubrication, 

aerodynamic drag reduction, and speed control are not well 

known and the penetration of these technologies into the 

heavy-duty vehicle market is quite dependent on future fuel 

prices and manufacturers' marketing strategies. Any new data 

in these areas will be very useful in improving future 

projections of the emission conversion factors. 

A second important area for further study is the 

estimation of the urban VMT fraction for the various classes of 

heavy-duty vehicles. The TIUS information used in the MOBILE3 

analysis yields only a surrogate for urban VMT fraction. On 

the other hand, the UMTRI information used in this analysis is 

not model-year specific. Information with the accuracy of the 

UMTRI data, yet with the capability to be made model year 

specific, as with the TIUS data, would provide the optimum 

information. 
3.4 

2 

\ 

rX. 

1 

Q. 

X 

00 

D_ 

O 

\-

O 

< 

u. 

-7 

o 

l/> 

or: u 

> 

z 

o 

o 

2.8 

2.6 

2.4 

2.2 

2 

1.8 

1.6 

1.4 

1.2 

1 

0.8 

• 

60 

M4 DIESEL 

FIGURE 1 

FLEET AVERAGE CONVERSION FACTORS 

70 80 

MODEL YEAR 

90 

M3 DIESEL M4 GAS 

2000 

M3 GA. 

-
P.41 

-40-

References 

1. "Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emission Conversion Factors 

1962-1997," Mahlon C. Smith, IV, EPA-AA-SDSB-84-1, August, 1984. 

2. "Motor Gasolines, Summer 1982, Winter 1982-83, 

Summer 1983, Winter 1983-84, Summer 1984, Winter 1984-85, 

Summer 1985, Winter 1985-86," Cheryl L. Dickson, Paul W. 

Woodward, National Institute for Petroluem and Energy Research 

(NIPER), for the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. 

Department of Energy, August 1986. 

3. "MVMA National Diesel Fuel Survey," Summer Season 

Report, July 1982, 1983,1984, 1985. 

4. "Factory Sales - Trucks and Buses by Make and 

G.V.W," Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the U.S., 12 

months 1975 through 12 months 1986. 

5. "Analysis of the 1982 Truck inventory and Use 

Survey," Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., for the U.S. 

EPA, December 1986. 

6. "Highway Statistics," Federal Highway 

Administration, 1968 - 1984. 

7. Transit Fact Book, American Public Transit 

Association, May 1985. 

8. "Radial Truck Tire Trends," Lloyd C. Cooper, 

Firestone Tire and Rubber Co., SAE paper No. 851463, August 

1985. 

9. "Comparison of On-Road and Wind-Tunnel Tests for 

Tractor-Trailer Aerodynamic Devices, and Fuel Savings 

Predictions," Jeffrey W. Saunders, et.al., SAE paper No. 850286. 

10. Presentation Made by the Engine Manufacturers 

Association, and Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association to the 

Emission Control Technology Division of the Environmental 

Protection Agency on March 7, 1988. 

11. Letter from Daniel Blower, Research Associate, 

University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, to 

Paul Machiele, Mechanical Engineer, SDSB/ECTD/EPA, April 19, 

1988. 

12. "Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures," Motor Vehicle 

Manufacturers Association, 1964 through 1987. 
P.42 

-41-

References (cont'd) 

13. Historical and Projected Emissions Conversion Factor 

and Fuel Economy for Heavy-Duty Trucks 1962-2002, prepared for 

Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association by Energy and 

Environmental Analysis, Inc., 1655 N. For: Mayer Drive, 

Arlington, Virginia 22209, December 1983. 

14. "The Motor Fuel Consumption Model; 13th Periodical 

Report," Prepared for Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., by 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., May 26, 1987. 

L 
P.43 

Appendix A 

UMTRI Survey of 

Percent Penetration of Fuel 

Economy Improvement Devices 

TnM nir-T"1 P1--^

 hV Mode l Year C1 2 l 

Model Aaro Body 

Year MHDT HHDT 

68 

69 

70 

71 

72 

73 

74 

75 

76 

77 

78 

79 

80 

81 

82 

83 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

3.4 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

6.3 

3.2 

5.1 

5.9 

15.8 

10.6 

14.8 

15.4 

15.5 

5.4 

5.1 

0.0 

0.0 

1.3 

0.0 

0.7 

2.3 

4.9 

2.3 

6.2 

7.5 

10.1 

12.8 

19.9 

28.2 

Aero Add-on 

MHDT HHDT 

6.9 

0.0 

0.0 

3.4 

0.0 

0.0 

1.5 

0.0 

0.0 

1.4 

8 

2 

,7 

.3 

.9 

.0 

10, 

0 

10 

1 

2 

6 

1 

0 

,4 

.7 

.1 

.5 

5.0 

5.7 

9.7 

8.5 

9.6 

9.3 

13.5 

22.2 

29.1 

25.4 

Radial Tires 

MHDT HHDT 

variable Fan 

MHDT HHDT 

Governor 

MHDT HHDT 

32.0 

22.7 

27.0 

29.5 

36.5 

39.9 

47.2 

36.4 

51.4 

41.0 

48.6 

44.1 

50.4 

45.4 

57.3 

58.5 

48.0 

26.3 

27.1 

25.8 

41.1 

43.2 

39.4 

46.5 

57.7 

53.9 

60.1 

57.0 

64.5 

65.9 

74.4 

77.4 

10.9 

11.3 

6.9 

29.3 

14.9 

12.2 

20.2 

14.0 

25.7 

28.6 

28.6 

36 

32 

28 

32 

26 

.5 

.9 

.0 

.0 

,2 

.7 

.5 

.7 

.0 

15. 

10, 

12 

5, 

12, 

15. 

15. 

14. 

26, 

• 33.6 

43.4 

42, 

56. 

46.8 

62.6 

58.9 

.6 

.9 

19.4 

20.7 

21.5 

11.2 

18.8 

17.1 

22.5 

19.0 

22.0 

22.8 

30.3 

24.2 

28.8 

23.2 

29.5 

27.7 

28, 

21 

29.8 

12.3 

23. 

22. 

19, 

17 

22 

19 

23 

6 

1 

6 

,3 

.1 

.5 

.2 

20.6 

22.8 

30.5 

33.9 

32.0 
P.44 

Appendix B: 

Computer Program Used to 

Calculate the Future Non-Engine 

Related Fuel Economy Improvements 
P.45 

THIS IS A PROGRAM iHAT _r4LCULATE3 ^UEL ECONOMY 

IMPROVEMENTS TO BE USED IN CALCULATING FUTURE _ 

CONVERSION FACTORS FOR EMISSIONS (IN G/BHP-HRT 

lHPf~ FT LEE ARE "9= . . . DIEB23. DAT 

DIES_.DAT 

DIE_7. DAT 

D IE3SA .DAT 

:.| I _, i if 5 . DA T 

-•I-R DIESEL ~UEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT? 

-ND , . . 3A32B. DAT

 f' 

u M :: .. . _• A T 

GA34, DAT 

'.•jAS_. _>A7 

'.iiH_ _ . L'AT 

GAS7.DAT 

GASSA.DAT 

"C-~ GASOLINE -UEL ZCGNOMv IMPROVEMENTS 

Z'-JTrXT "ILES ARE ':-=, . . DIEB2B. OUT. DIE_6. OUT. . . . FGR DIESEL 

'

i_T=. . .GABCB.0UT.GAS3.CUT. . . .FOR GASOLINE 

M-:,P3_THE FRACTION OF VEH 4 CL2S CLASSIFIED FOR. EACH Mv AS „GCAL 

..'F:_;-'=T-;E FRAC7. '.J- -EH. CLASS IFIED -OR EACH MY AS SHORT RANGE 

.r-~ = r;-.:.; -='AC']\ Oi^ VEH. CLASSIFIED FOR EACH MY AS LONG PAM6E 

-FFFEI-TH E PERCENT "UEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ASSUMED TO •-•-. 

,'SHICLE irGR THE IMPROVEMENT TYPE IN QUESTION 

•-•FLAFF=THE ". OF THE FLEET AFFECTED BY THE IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

'PENETRATION INTO THE MARKET) 

IMP=THE BASE YEAR PENETRATION INTO THE MARKET OF THE 

IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

DESCR=THE DESCRIPTION OF THE IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

ITYPE=THE INTEGER IDENTIFYING THE IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

VMTFUR-WEIGHTED VEHICLE FRACTION URBAN TO ACCOUNT FOR OPERATION 

OUTSIDE OF ITS PRIMARY USE AREA 

VMTFSR=WEIGHTED VEHICLE -PACTION FOR SHORT RANGE 

VMTFLR=WEIGHTED VEHICLE "PACTION FOR LONG RANGE 

-=FRAC"rION OF VEHICLES URBAN l.JI~H PRIMARV USE LOCAL 

- =~~ AC"" I GfJ C" VEHICLES US BAN WITH -RIMARY USE SHORT RANGE 

/-^PACTION OF VEHICLES URBAN WITH FRIMARY USE LONG RANGE 

j-FAFF=THE ". OF ""HE URBAN VEHICLES WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY AN 

.[ f' i F' R 0 V E M E N "r "r Y P E 

-•FA3R=THE PERCENT OF THE SHORT RANGE FLEET WHICH ARE AFFECTED 

BY AN IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

:-FAURc=THE •'. CF URBAN VEHICLES WHICH HAVE THEIR FP IMARY USE 

IN URBAN AREAS WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THE IMPROVEMENT 

TYPE 

TTL:"EI-THE FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TO THE CLASS DUE T 0 AN 

INDIVIDUAL IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

TC7FS:i>~HE FUEL. ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TC THE CLASS DUE ~D AN 

INDIVIDUAL IMPROVEMENT TYPE 

QIFF-THE DIFFERENCE IN "HE -UEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT CF EACH 

• MPROVEi''iEii':" :"YPE BETWEEN THE CURRENT YEAR AND ~

r

nE 

PREVIOUS ;'EAP 

DIFSUM=THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SUM OF THE FUEL ECONOMY 

[MpPQVEiv!SNT cOF: ALL CF

 T HE IMF'ROVEMENT TYPES ^C^ 

THE CURRENT :EAR, AND THE PREVIOUS YEAR 

1 N T c_

 :3 ci K '** *•*• Y bi H r 
P.46 

INITIALIZE-EVERYTHING TO ZERO 

00 ir. :YEAR=I ,4 

DIF3UM<IYEAR)=0.0 

DO 1* ITYPE=4,i.i 

TCTFEI <I YEAR. I TYPE•~0,0 

DI FF ( I YEAR. I "VPE "•='';..:. 

CONTINUE 

-nMTTM i ;~ 

• f _,_'—, -"St I 

:'FAUF.B-.N 

v'EAR -'FPFFI RF'. AF: 

!DD! ' 

: E AD 7r-. ""HE DA' 

READ (3. * , £ND=H' I ''''EAR . VFUR3 , vFSr,. Vi-LF., SERF- I•LHr , r . 

AiEIGnT "nZ VEHICLE FRACTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER THAN 

PRIMARY USE 

VMTFUR=,B5*VFURB+.075*VFSRH-.075*VFLR 

VMTF3R=.85*VF3R+.075VVFURB+.075*VFLR 

VMTFLR-.S5*VFLR+.075*VFURB+.075*VFSR 

DETERMINE THE FRACTIONS GF URBAN VEHICLES FROM EACH SUBCLASS 

X=.S5*VFURB/VMTFUR 

Y=.075+VF3R/VMTFUR 

r=.075*VFLR/VMTFUR 

FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT IF ONLv LONG RANGE VEHICLES ARE 

AFFECTED 

0='FLAFF.LE. VFLRO SO 7C 10 . 

,'M" 

DETERMINE THE PERCEN" OF THE URBAN FLEET AFFECTED B v T'r-E FUEL 

ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT !' ONLY LONG AND SHORT RANGE VEHICLES ARE 

AFFECTED 

?FA3H=|-'FLAF'--Vi-LR 

jp 'FFA3R.LE.VF3R ; ;j.pFASR* , 0 73 'VMTFUR 

DETERMINE THE PERCENT 

ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT ';; 

VEHICLES ARE AFFECTED 

: THE URBAN FLEET AFFECTED BY Tf 

.ONE RANGE SHORT RANGE AND LOCAL 

"FAURB'=FFASR-VFSR 

NF'FAFF = 2*V+PFAUF:B*. ! I- 'JK 

IMPROVEMENT 

;piPF1OVEMENT 

"HE ENTIRE CLASS 

'EAR IN QUESTION 
C DETERMINE THE FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT CALCULATED FOR

 THE 

C BASE YEAR " ' 

p 

DO 15 ITYPE=i,il 

DIFF (1,ITYPE)-TOTFEI(1,ITYPE) 

1. CONTINUE 

D DETERMINE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE -UEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT 

-I POP THE CLASS, YEAR AND IMPROVEMENT TYPE IN QUESTION. AND THAT 

0 CF THE PREVIOUS YEAR 

DO !. _ IYEAR=2,_ 

DC 1.7 I TYPE= i , 1 1 

L.: (TOTFEI (I YEAR, ITYPE) .EGTM O.C DIFF • DNEAR. ITYPE;, =o.O 

IF ^TOTFEI (I YEAR, ITYPE) .EQ.'...-. 0) GO TO 17 

DIFF 1I YEAR, ITVPE>=TGTFEI(I YEAR, ITYPE)-TOTPEI (I YEAR-1,I TYPE) 

17 CONTINUE 

0 DETERMINE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN "HE TOTAL FUEL ECONOMY 

4 IMPROVEMENT FOP "HE CLASS RESULTING FRO M ALL OF THE FUEL 

C ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TYPES FOR THE fEAR IN QUESTION, AND 

C THAT OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR 

DC) 13 IYEAR=1,5 

DIF3UM(IYEAR)=0.0 

DO 19 ITYPE=l,il 

DIFSUM(IYEAR> =D IFSUM{I YEAR)+DIFF <I YEAR,I TYPE) 

19 CONTINUE 

IS CONTINUE 

WRITE(6,220)YEAR,VFURB,VFSR,VFLR,PERFEI,PFLAFF,VFLR,PFASR, 

1 PFAURB,UPFAFF,TTLFEI,IMP 

GO TO 5 

220 FORMAT'1X,A4,IX,10F7.2,A3) 

j. 00 FORMAT 11X,A4. IX, 14 , 5F6. I , SX , A3, 14 > 

300 WR I TE •; _, 300) DI FSUM (1) , DI FSUM (2) . DI FSUM < 3) , DI FSUM ( 4) , _• I FSUM (5) 

300 PGRMAT(5F12.3) 

iOC WRITE (7, 300) D I FSUM < 1) , DI FSUM (2) , DI FSUM (3) , DI FSUM ;. 4) „ DI FSUM ( _) 

STOP 

END 
P.48 

1932 

1932 

1983 

1933 

1?S3 • 42> C 1

 "•" 

:*S 4 

1934 

19S4 

1934 

1935 - ^:F~ j. 9S3 

l?35 

19S6 

1936 1 9SS 1 S3 _ 

1 

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2 --

— -

— 

4 

,:L 

4 

.•i 

— 

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— 

787 0-

73.0 

7S. 0 

73. 0 

7 3 „ 0 .• ^ . ••-• 

73. 0 

73. 0 

73.0 

73. 0 

7 3. 0 

7

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73. 0 

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7 3. 0 

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