## Primary Estimate**Low Estimate**

7% 167 150 3% 205 182 CO2 At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 9.02 8.49 CO2 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 35.4 33.3 CO2 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 55.9 52.5 CO2 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 108.0 101.5 7% 1.74 1.65 3% 2.14 2.02 7% plus CO2 range178 to 277 160 to 253 7% 204 185 3% 243 217 3% plus CO2 range216 to 315 193 to 286

7% 20.32 23.39 3% 21.59 25.48

7% plus CO2 range157 to 256 137 to 230 7% 184 162 3% 221 192 3% plus CO2 range195 to 294 167 to 260

0 65

The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, incremental product costs reflect a declining trend (default learning rate) for product prices in the Primary Estimate, constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices in the Low Estimate, and a declining trend (high learning rate) in the High Estimate.

Total 

## TSL 3

**Discount Rate Annualized (million 2010$/year)**  **Benefits** Operating Cost Savings

NOx At 2,537 2010$/ton

Total



## Costs

Incremental Product Costs 

## Net Benefits/Costs

## High Estimate

185 31 229 1 9.55 6 37.6 7 59.3 8 114.6 9 1.82 44 2.26 14 196 to 301 224 269 241 to 346

20.70 30 22.03 0

175 to 280 203 247 219 to 324

130

The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from theAEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, incremental product costs reflect a declining trend (default learning rate) for product prices in the Primary Estimate, constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices in the Low Estimate, and a declining trend (high learning rate) 

## Annualized (million 2010$/year)**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.21 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.12 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.04 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.01 **NPV** 1.97 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 15.70 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 69.13 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 346.34 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 583.69 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1056.28 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 12.77 Monetized emission savings (3% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 3.71 At 2,537 2010$/ton 20.92 At 4,623 2010$/ton 38.12 **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 2.33

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.21 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.12 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.03 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.04 **NPV** 1.01 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 15.70 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 69.13 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 346.34 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 583.69 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1056.28 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 12.77 Monetized emission savings (7% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 1.91 At 2,537 2010$/ton 10.75 At 4,623 2010$/ton 19.59 **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 1.37**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.19 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.11 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.05 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.79 **NPV** 1.73 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 14.81 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 65.09 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 325.41 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 548.16 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 992.53 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 12.05 Monetized emission savings (3% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 3.50 At 2,537 2010$/ton 19.75 At 4,623 2010$/ton 35.99 **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 2.08

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.19 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.11 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.03 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.93 **NPV** 0.90 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 14.81 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 65.09 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 325.41 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 548.16 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 992.53 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 12.05 Monetized emission savings (7% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 1.82 At 2,537 2010$/ton 10.24 At 4,623 2010$/ton 18.65**NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 1.24

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.22 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.13 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.04 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.24 **NPV** 2.20 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 16.60 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 73.18 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 367.25 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 619.17 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1120.00 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 13.50 Monetized emission savings (3% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 3.92 At 2,537 2010$/ton 22.10 At 4,623 2010$/ton 40.27 **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 2.59

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)**

**PC1 Results presented for CSL**  **1 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.22 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.13 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.03 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.14 **NPV** 1.12 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 16.60 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 73.18 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 367.25 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 619.17 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1120.00**NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 13.50 Monetized emission savings (7% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 2.00 At 2,537 2010$/ton 11.27 At 4,623 2010$/ton 20.54 **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 1.50**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)** 

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.21

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.12

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.04 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.02 2.03 0.10billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.02 1.98 0.10billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.14 15.84

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.60 69.74 4.54million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 3.03 349.37 17.82million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 5.11 588.79 28.13million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 9.24 1065.52 54.36million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3% **NOx Emission Savings** 0.11 12.88

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 0.03 3.74 0.19million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.18 21.10 1.08million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.33 38.46 1.96million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 0.02 2.35 0.120billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)** 

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.21

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.12

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.03 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.01 1.04 0.08billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.01 1.02 0.08billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.14 15.84

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.60 69.74 4.54million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 3.03 349.37 17.82million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 5.11 588.79 28.13million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 9.24 1065.52 54.36million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3% **NOx Emission Savings** 0.11 12.88

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 0.02 1.92 0.16million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.09 10.84 0.87million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.17 19.76 1.59million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 0.01 1.38 0.101billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 1, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**  **National Impact Summary (TSL 2, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.20

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.12

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.05 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.02 1.80 0.09billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.02 1.75 0.09billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.13 14.94

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.57 65.66 4.27million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 2.85 328.26 16.75million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 4.80 552.95 26.42million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 8.68 1001.22 51.08million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3% **NOx Emission Savings** 0.11 12.15

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 0.03 3.53 0.18million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.17 19.92 1.02million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.31 36.31 1.85million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 0.02 2.10 0.107billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)** 

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.20

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.12

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.03 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.01 0.94 0.08billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.01 0.91 0.07billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.13 14.94

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.57 65.66 4.27million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 2.85 328.26 16.75million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 4.80 552.95 26.42million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 8.68 1001.22 51.08million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3% **NOx Emission Savings** 0.11 12.15

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 0.02 1.83 0.15million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.09 10.33 0.83million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.16 18.82 1.52million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton0.01 1.25 0.091billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.22

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.13

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.04 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.02 2.26 0.12billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.02 2.22 0.11billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.15 16.74

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.64 73.82 4.80million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 3.21 370.47 18.90million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 5.42 624.59 29.84million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 9.80 1129.80 57.64million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3% **NOx Emission Savings** 0.12 13.62

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 0.03 3.95 0.20million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.19 22.29 1.14million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.35 40.62 2.07million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 0.02 2.61 0.133billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 1, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC2 Total**  **An nualized**  **(30 y ears)**  **1 Results presented for CSL**  0.00 0.22

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.00 0.13

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.00 0.03 0.00billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.01 1.15 0.09billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 0.01 1.13 0.09billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  0.15 16.74

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 0.64 73.82 4.80million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 3.21 370.47 18.90million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 5.42 624.59 29.84million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 9.80 1129.80 57.64million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%**NOx Emission Savings**

0.12 13.62

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 0.02 2.02 0.16million $ At 450 2010$/ton 0.10 11.37 0.92million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 0.18 20.72 1.67million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 0.01 1.51 0.111billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**  **National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.30 0.00 0.30

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.17 0.00 0.18

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 2.89 0.04 2.93 0.15billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.75 0.03 2.78 0.14billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  22.57 0.31 22.88

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 99.40 1.36 100.76 6.55million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 497.96 6.81 504.77 25.75million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 839.21 11.47 850.69 40.64million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1518.70 20.76 1539.46 78.54million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 18.36 0.25 18.61

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 5.34 0.07 5.41 0.28million $ At 450 2010$/ton 30.08 0.41 30.49 1.56million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 54.82 0.75 55.56 2.83million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 3.28 0.04 3.31 0.169billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 2, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.30 0.00 0.30

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.17 0.00 0.18

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.08 0.00 0.09 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.49 0.02 1.51 0.12billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.41 0.02 1.42 0.11billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  22.57 0.31 22.88

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 99.40 1.36 100.76 6.55million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 497.96 6.81 504.77 25.75million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 839.21 11.47 850.69 40.64million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1518.70 20.76 1539.46 78.54million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 18.36 0.25 18.61

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 2.74 0.04 2.78 0.22million $ At 450 2010$/ton 15.46 0.21 15.67 1.26million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 28.17 0.39 28.55 2.30million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 1.92 0.02 1.94 0.141billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 2, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**  **National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.28 0.00 0.28

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.16 0.00 0.17

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.16 0.01 0.17 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 2.56 0.04 2.60 0.13billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.40 0.03 2.43 0.12billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  21.30 0.29 21.59

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 93.59 1.28 94.87 6.17million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 467.86 6.40 474.26 24.20million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 788.12 10.78 798.89 38.17million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1427.02 19.51 1446.53 73.80million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 17.32 0.24 17.56

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 5.04 0.07 5.11 0.26million $ At 450 2010$/ton 28.40 0.39 28.79 1.47million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 51.75 0.71 52.45 2.68million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 2.90 0.03 2.93 0.150billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 2, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.28 0.00 0.28

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.16 0.00 0.17

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.09 0.01 0.10 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.34 0.02 1.36 0.11billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.24 0.01 1.26 0.10billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  21.30 0.29 21.59

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 93.59 1.28 94.87 6.17million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 467.86 6.40 474.26 24.20million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 788.12 10.78 798.89 38.17million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1427.02 19.51 1446.53 73.80million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 17.32 0.24 17.56

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 2.61 0.04 2.65 0.21million $ At 450 2010$/ton 14.72 0.20 14.92 1.20million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 26.82 0.37 27.19 2.19million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton1.73 0.02 1.75 0.127billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 2, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.31 0.00 0.32

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.18 0.00 0.18

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 3.22 0.04 3.27 0.17billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.08 0.04 3.12 0.16billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  23.86 0.33 24.19

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 105.22 1.44 106.66 6.94million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 528.04 7.22 535.26 27.31million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 890.24 12.17 902.41 43.12million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1610.32 22.02 1632.34 83.28million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 19.41 0.27 19.68

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 5.64 0.08 5.71 0.29million $ At 450 2010$/ton 31.78 0.43 32.21 1.64million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 57.90 0.79 58.69 2.99million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 3.64 0.04 3.68 0.188billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 2, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 2**  **2 Results presented for CSL**  0.31 0.00 0.32

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.18 0.00 0.18

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.08 0.00 0.09 0.01billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.64 0.02 1.67 0.13billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.56 0.02 1.58 0.13billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  23.86 0.33 24.19

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 105.22 1.44 106.66 6.94million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 528.04 7.22 535.26 27.31million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 890.24 12.17 902.41 43.12million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 1610.32 22.02 1632.34 83.28million $ At 64.9 2007$/t**NOx Emission Savings**

19.41 0.27 19.68

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 2.88 0.04 2.91 0.23million $ At 450 2010$/ton 16.21 0.22 16.43 1.32million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 29.54 0.40 29.94 2.41million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 2.11 0.02 2.13 0.156billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**  **National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.41 0.01 0.41

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.24 0.00 0.24

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.39 0.03 0.42 0.02billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 3.97 0.05 4.02 0.20billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.58 0.02 3.59 0.18billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  31.08 0.39 31.48

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 136.88 1.73 138.61 9.02million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 685.69 8.66 694.35 35.43million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1155.60 14.59 1170.19 55.91million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 2091.27 26.40 2117.67 108.04million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 25.29 0.32 25.60

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 7.35 0.09 7.44 0.38million $ At 450 2010$/ton 41.42 0.52 41.95 2.14million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 75.49 0.95 76.44 3.90million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 4.31 0.03 4.33 0.221billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 4, A EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.41 0.01 0.41

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.24 0.00 0.24

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.23 0.02 0.25 0.02billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 2.04 0.03 2.07 0.17billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.81 0.01 1.82 0.15billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  31.08 0.39 31.48

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 136.88 1.73 138.61 9.02million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 685.69 8.66 694.35 35.43million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1155.60 14.59 1170.19 55.91million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 2091.27 26.40 2117.67 108.04million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 25.29 0.32 25.60

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 3.78 0.05 3.82 0.31million $ At 450 2010$/ton 21.29 0.27 21.56 1.74million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 38.79 0.49 39.28 3.17million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 2.52 0.01 2.53 0.184billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 3, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**  **National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.38 0.00 0.39

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.23 0.00 0.23

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.46 0.04 0.50 0.03billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 3.53 0.04 3.57 0.18billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.07 0.01 3.07 0.16billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  29.32 0.37 29.70

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 128.87 1.63 130.50 8.49million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 644.23 8.13 652.36 33.28million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1085.21 13.70 1098.91 52.50million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 1964.98 24.81 1989.78 101.52million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 23.85 0.30 24.16

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 6.94 0.09 7.02 0.36million $ At 450 2010$/ton 39.10 0.49 39.60 2.02million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 71.26 0.90 72.16 3.68million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 3.75 0.01 3.76 0.192billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 4, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.38 0.00 0.39

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.23 0.00 0.23

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.27 0.02 0.29 0.02billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.84 0.02 1.86 0.15billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 1.57 0.00 1.57 0.13billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  29.32 0.37 29.70

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 128.87 1.63 130.50 8.49million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 644.23 8.13 652.36 33.28million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1085.21 13.70 1098.91 52.50million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 1964.98 24.81 1989.78 101.52million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 23.85 0.30 24.16

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 3.60 0.05 3.64 0.29million $ At 450 2010$/ton 20.27 0.26 20.53 1.65million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 36.94 0.47 37.41 3.01million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton2.24 0.01 2.25 0.162billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 4, A EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.43 0.01 0.44

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.25 0.00 0.25

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.40 0.03 0.43 0.02billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 4.43 0.06 4.49 0.23billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 4.03 0.02 4.05 0.21billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  32.86 0.42 33.28

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 144.90 1.83 146.73 9.55million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 727.13 9.18 736.31 37.57million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1225.89 15.48 1241.37 59.31million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 2217.49 28.00 2245.49 114.56million $ At 64.9 2007$/t **NOx Emission Savings** 26.73 0.34 27.07

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 7.76 0.10 7.86 0.40million $ At 450 2010$/ton 43.76 0.55 44.31 2.26million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 79.74 1.01 80.74 4.12million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 4.80 0.03 4.83 0.247billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)**

**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary**  **(TSL 4, A EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 3**  **3 Results presented for CSL**  0.43 0.01 0.44

- quad **Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)**  0.25 0.00 0.25

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.24 0.02 0.26 0.02billion $ **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 2.26 0.03 2.29 0.18billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.02 0.01 2.03 0.16billion $ **NPV CO2 Emission Savings**  32.86 0.42 33.28

- Mt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings 5% 144.90 1.83 146.73 9.55million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 3% 727.13 9.18 736.31 37.57million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 2.5% 1225.89 15.48 1241.37 59.31million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 3% 2217.49 28.00 2245.49 114.56million $ At 64.9 2007$/t**NOx Emission Savings** 26.73 0.34 27.07

- kt Physical emission savings Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 3.96 0.05 4.01 0.32million $ At 450 2010$/ton 22.32 0.28 22.61 1.82million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton 40.68 0.51 41.19 3.32million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton 2.77 0.02 2.79 0.203billion $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) National Impact Summary** 

**(TSL 4, A EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.62 0.01 0.63

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.36 0.01 0.37

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.53 0.02 1.55 0.08billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 6.06 0.10 6.16 0.31billion $ 4.53 0.08 4.60 0.23billion $

47.69 0.77 48.46

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 209.97 3.38 213.35 13.88million $ 3% 1051.73 16.94 1068.67 54.52million $ 2.5% 1772.44 28.55 1800.99 86.05million $ 3% 3207.65 51.66 3259.32 166.29million $

38.79 0.62 39.42

- kt Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 11.27 0.18 11.45 0.58million $ 63.55 1.02 64.58 3.29million $ 115.81 1.87 117.68 6.00million $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 5.64 0.10 5.74 0.293billion $

**National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.62 0.01 0.63

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.36 0.01 0.37

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.91 0.01 0.92 0.07billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.12 0.05 3.17 0.26billion $ 2.21 0.04 2.25 0.18billion $

47.69 0.77 48.46

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 209.97 3.38 213.35 13.88million $ 3% 1051.73 16.94 1068.67 54.52million $ 2.5% 1772.44 28.55 1800.99 86.05million $ 3% 3207.65 51.66 3259.32 166.29million $

38.79 0.62 39.42

- kt Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 5.80 0.09 5.89 0.47million $ 32.67 0.53 33.20 2.68million $ 59.54 0.96 60.50 4.88million $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 3.29 0.06 3.35 0.238billion $**National Impact Summary**

**(TSL 4, A EO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)** 

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.59 0.01 0.60

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.34 0.01 0.35

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.81 0.02 1.83 0.09billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 5.38 0.09 5.47 0.28billion $ 3.57 0.06 3.64 0.19billion $

44.99 0.72 45.71

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 197.67 3.18 200.85 13.07million $ 3% 988.01 15.91 1003.93 51.22million $ 2.5% 1664.26 26.81 1691.07 80.80million $ 3% 3013.56 48.54 3062.10 156.23million $

36.59 0.59 37.18

- kt Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 10.64 0.17 10.81 0.55million $ 59.99 0.97 60.95 3.11million $ 109.31 1.76 111.07 5.67million $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 4.62 0.08 4.70 0.240billion $

**National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.59 0.01 0.60

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.34 0.01 0.35

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.05 0.01 1.06 0.09billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 2.81 0.05 2.86 0.23billion $ 1.76 0.03 1.79 0.14billion $

44.99 0.72 45.71

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 197.67 3.18 200.85 13.07million $ 3% 988.01 15.91 1003.93 51.22million $ 2.5% 1664.26 26.81 1691.07 80.80million $ 3% 3013.56 48.54 3062.10 156.23million $

36.59 0.59 37.18

- kt Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 5.52 0.09 5.61 0.45million $ 31.11 0.50 31.61 2.55million $ 56.69 0.91 57.60 4.64million $**NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 2.78 0.05 2.83 0.198billion $

**National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.66 0.01 0.67

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.38 0.01 0.39

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 1.56 0.02 1.58 0.08billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 6.76 0.11 6.87 0.35billion $ 5.20 0.09 5.29 0.27billion $

50.42 0.81 51.23

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 222.30 3.58 225.88 14.69million $ 3% 1115.40 17.96 1133.36 57.82million $ 2.5% 1880.44 30.29 1910.73 91.29million $ 3% 3401.59 54.79 3456.38 176.34million $

41.02 0.66 41.68

- kt Monetized emission savings (3% dr) 11.91 0.19 12.10 0.62million $ 67.14 1.08 68.22 3.48million $ 122.34 1.97 124.31 6.34million $ **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 6.38 0.11 6.49 0.331billion $

**National Impact Summary (TSL 4, A** **EO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Total An** **nualized (30 y**  **ears) 4**  **4 Energy**  **Saving (2014 to 2043)** 0.66 0.01 0.67

- quad **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.38 0.01 0.39

- quad **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.93 0.01 0.94 0.08billion $ **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.45 0.06 3.51 0.28billion $ 2.52 0.04 2.57 0.21billion $

50.42 0.81 51.23

- Mt Monetized emission savings 5% 222.30 3.58 225.88 14.69million $ 3% 1115.40 17.96 1133.36 57.82million $ 2.5% 1880.44 30.29 1910.73 91.29million $ 3% 3401.59 54.79 3456.38 176.34million $41.02 0.66 41.68

- kt Monetized emission savings (7% dr) 6.08 0.10 6.18 0.50million $ 34.27 0.55 34.82 2.81million $ 62.44 1.01 63.45 5.11million $ **NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)** 3.67 0.06 3.74 0.267billion $**Input and Summary**

**User Inputs: TSL Level =**  **3**

**Discounting future values:** Discount Rate for NPV Determination 3.0% Discount Rate for Energy Savings 3.0% 1 2 Year to discount to 2011 **TSL** PC1 PC2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 **Market Impact** 4 4 4

**Economic Growth Standards Level PC1 =**  **3 Price Trend**  **Standards Level PC2 = 3** 

**PC1**

LevelStandby PowerUEC Installed Price Market

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ % Baseline 4.00 34.8 $223 46% $223 $227 $221 $212 1 2.00 17.4 $224 35% $224 $227 $221 $212 2 1.50 13.0 $224 19% $224 $228 $222 $213 3 1.00 8.7 $225 0% $225 $229 $223 $214 4 0.02 0.2 $230 0% $230 $234 $228 $218

**PC2**

LevelStandby PowerUEC Installed Price Market

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ % Baseline 4.50 39.1 $482 100% $482 $490 $477 $458 1 3.70 32.1 $482 0% $482 $490 $477 $458 2 2.70 23.5 $486 0% $486 $493 $481 $461 3 2.20 19.1 $496 0% $496 $504 $491 $471 4 0.04 0.3 $490 0% $490 $498 $485 $465

**Base Case Efficiency**

**Trend Base Case Efficiency**  **Trend**

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2007 2008 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2008 2009 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2009 2010 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2010 2011 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2011 2012 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2012 2013 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2013 2014 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2014 2015 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2015 2016 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2016 2017 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2017 2018 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2018 **PC1** Map of CSLs by TSL

**RP e** **las ti** **cit y -** **0.34**



### Re**fe ren** **ce**



### De**fa ul** **t**2019 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2019 2020 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2020 2021 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2021 2022 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2022 2023 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2023 2024 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2024 2025 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2025 2026 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2026 2027 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2027 2028 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2028 2029 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2029 2030 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2030 2031 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2031 2032 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2032 2033 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2033 2034 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2034 2035 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2035 2036 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2036 2037 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2037 2038 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2038 2039 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2039 2040 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2040 2041 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2041 2042 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2042 2043 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2043

**Standards Case Efficiency Trend**  **Standards Case Efficiency Trend** 

**Design # 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **Total Design #** 

2007 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2007 2008 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2008 2009 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2009 2010 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2010 2011 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2011 2012 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2012 2013 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2013 2014 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2014 2015 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2015 2016 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2016 2017 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2017 2018 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2018 2019 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2019 2020 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2020 2021 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2021 2022 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2022 2023 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2023 2024 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2024 2025 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2025 2026 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2026 2027 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2027 2028 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2028 2029 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2029 2030 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2030 2031 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2031 2032 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2032 2033 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2033 2034 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2034 2035 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2035 2036 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2036 2037 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2037 **PC1**2038 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2038 2039 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2039 2040 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2040 2041 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2041 2042 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2042 2043 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2043

**Base Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC1**  **Standby Hhld**  **Power UEC**  **Price Income**  kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $ 2007 2.83 2007 25 2007 $52,162 2007 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 $52,508 2008 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 $53,474 2009 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 $53,214 2010 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 $54,116 2011 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 $55,231 2012 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 $56,210 2013 2014 2.83 2014 25 2014 $224 1.000 $57,450 2014 2015 2.83 2015 25 2015 $220 0.983 $58,495 2015 2016 2.83 2016 25 2016 $216 0.968 $59,385 2016 2017 2.83 2017 25 2017 $213 0.953 $60,225 2017 2018 2.83 2018 25 2018 $210 0.939 $61,301 2018 2019 2.83 2019 25 2019 $207 0.926 $62,543 2019 2020 2.83 2020 25 2020 $204 0.912 $63,657 2020 2021 2.83 2021 25 2021 $201 0.899 $64,712 2021 2022 2.83 2022 25 2022 $198 0.886 $65,833 2022 2023 2.83 2023 25 2023 $195 0.873 $67,038 2023 2024 2.83 2024 25 2024 $192 0.861 $68,267 2024 2025 2.83 2025 25 2025 $190 0.849 $69,513 2025 2026 2.83 2026 25 2026 $187 0.838 $70,762 2026 2027 2.83 2027 25 2027 $185 0.828 $71,915 2027 2028 2.83 2028 25 2028 $183 0.818 $73,052 2028 2029 2.83 2029 25 2029 $181 0.808 $74,119 2029 2030 2.83 2030 25 2030 $178 0.798 $75,135 2030 2031 2.83 2031 25 2031 $176 0.789 $76,391 2031 2032 2.83 2032 25 2032 $174 0.779 $77,669 2032 2033 2.83 2033 25 2033 $172 0.770 $78,963 2033 2034 2.83 2034 25 2034 $170 0.761 $80,267 2034 2035 2.83 2035 25 2035 $168 0.753 $81,577 2035 2036 2.83 2036 25 2036 $166 0.745 $82,893 2036 2037 2.83 2037 25 2037 $165 0.737 $84,215 2037 2038 2.83 2038 25 2038 $163 0.729 $85,555 2038 2039 2.83 2039 25 2039 $161 0.721 $86,918 2039 2040 2.83 2040 25 2040 $160 0.714 $88,314 2040 2041 2.83 2041 25 2041 $158 0.706 $89,752 2041 2042 2.83 2042 25 2042 $156 0.699 $89,752 2042 2043 2.83 2043 25 2043 $155 0.692 $89,752 2043

**Base Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **Standby Hhld**  **Power UEC**  **Price Income**  kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $ 2007 4.50 2007 39 2007 $52,162 2007 2008 4.50 2008 39 2008 $52,508 2008 2009 4.50 2009 39 2009 $53,474 2009 2010 4.50 2010 39 2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010 2011 4.50 2011 39 2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011 2012 4.50 2012 39 2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012 2013 4.50 2013 39 2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013 2014 4.50 2014 39 2014 $482 1.000 $57,450 2014 **Price Trend**

**Price Trend**2015 4.50 2015 39 2015 $474 0.983 $58,495 2015 2016 4.50 2016 39 2016 $467 0.968 $59,385 2016 2017 4.50 2017 39 2017 $460 0.953 $60,225 2017 2018 4.50 2018 39 2018 $453 0.939 $61,301 2018 2019 4.50 2019 39 2019 $446 0.926 $62,543 2019 2020 4.50 2020 39 2020 $440 0.912 $63,657 2020 2021 4.50 2021 39 2021 $433 0.899 $64,712 2021 2022 4.50 2022 39 2022 $427 0.886 $65,833 2022 2023 4.50 2023 39 2023 $421 0.873 $67,038 2023 2024 4.50 2024 39 2024 $415 0.861 $68,267 2024 2025 4.50 2025 39 2025 $410 0.849 $69,513 2025 2026 4.50 2026 39 2026 $404 0.838 $70,762 2026 2027 4.50 2027 39 2027 $399 0.828 $71,915 2027 2028 4.50 2028 39 2028 $394 0.818 $73,052 2028 2029 4.50 2029 39 2029 $390 0.808 $74,119 2029 2030 4.50 2030 39 2030 $385 0.798 $75,135 2030 2031 4.50 2031 39 2031 $380 0.789 $76,391 2031 2032 4.50 2032 39 2032 $376 0.779 $77,669 2032 2033 4.50 2033 39 2033 $371 0.770 $78,963 2033 2034 4.50 2034 39 2034 $367 0.761 $80,267 2034 2035 4.50 2035 39 2035 $363 0.753 $81,577 2035 2036 4.50 2036 39 2036 $359 0.745 $82,893 2036 2037 4.50 2037 39 2037 $355 0.737 $84,215 2037 2038 4.50 2038 39 2038 $351 0.729 $85,555 2038 2039 4.50 2039 39 2039 $348 0.721 $86,918 2039 2040 4.50 2040 39 2040 $344 0.714 $88,314 2040 2041 4.50 2041 39 2041 $341 0.706 $89,752 2041 2042 4.50 2042 39 2042 $337 0.699 $89,752 2042 2043 4.50 2043 39 2043 $334 0.692 $89,752 2043**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**PC1 PC2**  **Results presented for CSL 3**  **3 Energy**  **Saving**(2014 to 2043) 0.41 0.01 **Energy Savings discounted at 3%**  0.24 0.00 **Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost** 0.39 0.03 **Discounted Oper. Cost Saving** 3.97 0.05 **NPV** 3.58 0.02 **CO2 Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 31.08 0.39 Monetized emission savings At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 136.88 1.73 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 685.69 8.66 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 1155.60 14.59 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 2091.27 26.40 **NOx Emission Savings** Physical emission savings 25.29 0.32 Monetized emission savings (3% dr) At 450 2010$/ton 7.35 0.09 At 2,537 2010$/ton 41.42 0.52 At 4,623 2010$/ton 75.49 0.95 **NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)** 4.31 0.03

AEO ChainedConstant

Prices

$228 $236 $228 $236 CO2 NOx CO2 NOx CO2 NOx $229 $237 15.84 12.88 29.46 23.09 15.84 12.88 $230 $238 22.88 18.61 42.53 33.34 22.88 18.61 $235 $243 31.48 25.60 58.40 45.78 31.48 25.60 48.46 39.42 89.46 70.12 48.46 39.42 TSL 3

AEO ChainedConstant

Prices

$492 $509 $492 $509 $495 $513 $506 $524 $500 $517

**Base Case Efficiency**

**Trend**

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%Emission Savings Adjustment Current results Pre-ajustment results NEMS results

**PC2**100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

**Standards Case Efficiency Trend** 

**0 1**  **2 3**  **4 Total** 

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

**PC2**0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

**Standards Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC1**  **TC/Income Standby**  **Power UEC**  **Price** kWh/yr kWh/yr $ 0.000 2007 2.83 2007 25 2007 0.000 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 0.000 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 0.005 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 0.004 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 0.004 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 0.004 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 0.004 2014 1.00 2014 9 2014 $225 1.000 0.004 2015 1.00 2015 9 2015 $221 0.983 0.004 2016 1.00 2016 9 2016 $218 0.968 0.004 2017 1.00 2017 9 2017 $215 0.953 0.003 2018 1.00 2018 9 2018 $212 0.939 0.003 2019 1.00 2019 9 2019 $208 0.926 0.003 2020 1.00 2020 9 2020 $205 0.912 0.003 2021 1.00 2021 9 2021 $202 0.899 0.003 2022 1.00 2022 9 2022 $199 0.886 0.003 2023 1.00 2023 9 2023 $197 0.873 0.003 2024 1.00 2024 9 2024 $194 0.861 0.003 2025 1.00 2025 9 2025 $191 0.849 0.003 2026 1.00 2026 9 2026 $189 0.838 0.003 2027 1.00 2027 9 2027 $186 0.828 0.003 2028 1.00 2028 9 2028 $184 0.818 0.002 2029 1.00 2029 9 2029 $182 0.808 0.002 2030 1.00 2030 9 2030 $180 0.798 0.002 2031 1.00 2031 9 2031 $178 0.789 0.002 2032 1.00 2032 9 2032 $176 0.779 0.002 2033 1.00 2033 9 2033 $173 0.770 0.002 2034 1.00 2034 9 2034 $171 0.761 0.002 2035 1.00 2035 9 2035 $170 0.753 0.002 2036 1.00 2036 9 2036 $168 0.745 0.002 2037 1.00 2037 9 2037 $166 0.737 0.002 2038 1.00 2038 9 2038 $164 0.729 0.002 2039 1.00 2039 9 2039 $162 0.721 0.002 2040 1.00 2040 9 2040 $161 0.714 0.002 2041 1.00 2041 9 2041 $159 0.706 0.002 2042 1.00 2042 9 2042 $157 0.699 0.002 2043 1.00 2043 9 2043 $156 0.692

**Standards Case Weighted A verage UEC and Price - PC2**  **TC/Income Standby**  **Power UEC**  **Price** kWh/yr kWh/yr $ 0.000 2007 4.50 2007 39 2007 0.000 2008 4.50 2008 39 2008 0.000 2009 4.50 2009 39 2009 0.010 2010 4.50 2010 39 2010 $519 1.076 0.009 2011 4.50 2011 39 2011 $509 1.056 0.009 2012 4.50 2012 39 2012 $500 1.036 0.009 2013 4.50 2013 39 2013 $491 1.018 0.008 2014 2.20 2014 19 2014 $496 1.000 **Price Trend**

**Price Trend**0.008 2015 2.20 2015 19 2015 $488 0.983

0.008 2016 2.20 2016 19 2016 $480 0.968 0.008 2017 2.20 2017 19 2017 $473 0.953 0.007 2018 2.20 2018 19 2018 $466 0.939 0.007 2019 2.20 2019 19 2019 $459 0.926 0.007 2020 2.20 2020 19 2020 $453 0.912 0.007 2021 2.20 2021 19 2021 $446 0.899 0.006 2022 2.20 2022 19 2022 $439 0.886 0.006 2023 2.20 2023 19 2023 $433 0.873 0.006 2024 2.20 2024 19 2024 $427 0.861 0.006 2025 2.20 2025 19 2025 $421 0.849 0.006 2026 2.20 2026 19 2026 $416 0.838 0.006 2027 2.20 2027 19 2027 $411 0.828 0.005 2028 2.20 2028 19 2028 $406 0.818 0.005 2029 2.20 2029 19 2029 $401 0.808 0.005 2030 2.20 2030 19 2030 $396 0.798 0.005 2031 2.20 2031 19 2031 $391 0.789 0.005 2032 2.20 2032 19 2032 $387 0.779 0.005 2033 2.20 2033 19 2033 $382 0.770 0.005 2034 2.20 2034 19 2034 $378 0.761 0.004 2035 2.20 2035 19 2035 $373 0.753 0.004 2036 2.20 2036 19 2036 $369 0.745 0.004 2037 2.20 2037 19 2037 $365 0.737 0.004 2038 2.20 2038 19 2038 $362 0.729 0.004 2039 2.20 2039 19 2039 $358 0.721 0.004 2040 2.20 2040 19 2040 $354 0.714 0.004 2041 2.20 2041 19 2041 $350 0.706 0.004 2042 2.20 2042 19 2042 $347 0.699 0.004 2043 2.20 2043 19 2043 $343 0.692**National Impact Summary (TSL 3, A** **EO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)**

**Total An** **nualized**

**(30 y ears)** 

0.41

- quad 0.24

- quad 0.42 0.02billion $ 4.02 0.20billion $ 3.59 0.18billion $

31.48

- Mt

138.61 9.02million $ 694.35 35.43million $ 1170.19 55.91million $ 2117.67 108.04million $

25.60

- kt

7.44 0.38million $ 41.95 2.14million $ 76.44 3.90million $ 4.33 0.221billion $

CO2 NOx 0.538 0.558 0.538 0.558 0.539 0.559 0.542 0.562 0.539 0.559 Adj Factors**Hhld TC/Income**  **RP Elast**

**Income Drop**  $ $52,162 2007 0.000 2007 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 $53,214 2010 0.005 2010 $54,116 2011 0.004 2011 $55,231 2012 0.004 2012 $56,210 2013 0.004 2013 $57,450 2014 0.004 2014 1.00 $58,495 2015 0.004 2015 0.78 $59,385 2016 0.004 2016 0.63 $60,225 2017 0.004 2017 0.54 $61,301 2018 0.003 2018 0.46 $62,543 2019 0.003 2019 0.44 $63,657 2020 0.003 2020 0.42 $64,712 2021 0.003 2021 0.39 $65,833 2022 0.003 2022 0.37 $67,038 2023 0.003 2023 0.35 $68,267 2024 0.003 2024 0.35 $69,513 2025 0.003 2025 0.35 $70,762 2026 0.003 2026 0.35 $71,915 2027 0.003 2027 0.34 $73,052 2028 0.003 2028 0.34 $74,119 2029 0.002 2029 0.34 $75,135 2030 0.002 2030 0.34 $76,391 2031 0.002 2031 0.34 $77,669 2032 0.002 2032 0.34 $78,963 2033 0.002 2033 0.33 $80,267 2034 0.002 2034 0.33 $81,577 2035 0.002 2035 0.33 $82,893 2036 0.002 2036 0.33 $84,215 2037 0.002 2037 0.33 $85,555 2038 0.002 2038 0.33 $86,918 2039 0.002 2039 0.33 $88,314 2040 0.002 2040 0.33 $89,752 2041 0.002 2041 0.33 $89,752 2042 0.002 2042 0.33 $89,752 2043 0.002 2043 0.33

**Hhld TC/Income**  **RP Elast Income**  **Drop** $ $52,162 2007 0.000 2007 $52,508 2008 0.000 2008 $53,474 2009 0.000 2009 $53,214 2010 0.010 2010 $54,116 2011 0.009 2011 $55,231 2012 0.009 2012 $56,210 2013 0.009 2013 $57,450 2014 0.009 2014 1.00$58,495 2015 0.008 2015 0.78

$59,385 2016 0.008 2016 0.63 $60,225 2017 0.008 2017 0.54 $61,301 2018 0.008 2018 0.46 $62,543 2019 0.007 2019 0.44 $63,657 2020 0.007 2020 0.42 $64,712 2021 0.007 2021 0.39 $65,833 2022 0.007 2022 0.37 $67,038 2023 0.006 2023 0.35 $68,267 2024 0.006 2024 0.35 $69,513 2025 0.006 2025 0.35 $70,762 2026 0.006 2026 0.35 $71,915 2027 0.006 2027 0.34 $73,052 2028 0.006 2028 0.34 $74,119 2029 0.005 2029 0.34 $75,135 2030 0.005 2030 0.34 $76,391 2031 0.005 2031 0.34 $77,669 2032 0.005 2032 0.34 $78,963 2033 0.005 2033 0.33 $80,267 2034 0.005 2034 0.33 $81,577 2035 0.005 2035 0.33 $82,893 2036 0.004 2036 0.33 $84,215 2037 0.004 2037 0.33 $85,555 2038 0.004 2038 0.33 $86,918 2039 0.004 2039 0.33 $88,314 2040 0.004 2040 0.33 $89,752 2041 0.004 2041 0.33 $89,752 2042 0.004 2042 0.33 $89,752 2043 0.004 2043 0.33**Historical Shipment**

**Historical Shipment for PC1**

millions 1972 0.30 1973 0.42 1974 0.67 1975 0.99 1976 1.65 1977 2.04 **As sumptions:**  1978 2.36 Total Microwave Oven Market Share for New homes in 2005 90.3% 1979 2.65 % of Early Replacement 0.0% 1980 3.41 Growth in New Housing saturation 0.0% 1981 4.18 PC2 Shipments 1% 1982 3.85 1983 5.60 1984 8.63 1985 10.28 1986 11.76 1987 11.91 1988 10.38 1989 9.78 1990 7.69 1991 6.62 1992 7.19 1993 7.24 1994 8.57 1995 8.16 1996 8.77 1997 9.14 1998 10.37 1999 11.42 2000 12.64 2001 13.45 2002 13.31 2003 14.27 2004 15.53 2005 13.86 2006 13.69 2007 11.85 2008 11.34 2009 9.63

AHAM Shipments 2003-2010 AHAM Shipments, less 5.5% for exports Estimated Shipments

### Base Case - PC1

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1 Base Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses Repl. Units** **New Units**  Survivalmillion million million millionmillion **1972** 0.294 0.294 0.000 0.000 **1973** 0.416 0.710 0.000 0.000 **1974** 0.667 1.377 0.000 0.000 **1975** 0.984 2.360 0.000 0.000 **1976** 1.636 3.995 0.001 0.001 **1977** 2.017 6.007 0.005 0.005 **1978** 2.339 8.330 0.016 0.016 **1979** 2.625 10.910 0.045 0.045 **1980** 3.374 14.179 0.106 0.106 **1981** 4.135 18.098 0.216 0.216 **1982** 3.807 21.516 0.389 0.389 **1983** 5.549 26.438 0.627 0.627 **1984** 8.540 34.050 0.928 0.928 **1985** 10.178 42.937 1.291 1.291 **1986** 11.638 52.875 1.700 1.700 **1987** 11.793 62.536 2.132 2.132 **1988** 10.275 70.228 2.583 2.583 **1989** 9.680 76.822 3.087 3.087 **1990** 7.616 80.731 3.707 3.707 **1991** 6.557 82.779 4.509 4.013 **1992** 7.118 84.337 5.560 5.259 **1993** 7.168 84.615 6.890 6.366 **1994** 8.488 84.741 8.362 8.067 **1995** 8.080 83.190 9.631 9.059 **1996** 8.683 81.529 10.344 9.697 **1997** 9.051 80.210 10.370 9.767 **1998** 10.261 80.652 9.820 9.629 0.000 **1999** 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 8.659 0.000 **2000** 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 7.698 0.000 **2001** 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 7.186 0.000 **2002** 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 6.8550.000 **2003** 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 7.154 0.000 **2004** 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 7.541 0.000 **2005** 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 8.164 0.000 **2006** 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 8.353 0.000 **2007** 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 7.908 0.000 **2008** 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 10.084 0.000 **2009** 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 11.291 0.000 **2010** 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 94.6% 13.022 0.866 **2011** 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 94.6% 13.130 1.392 **2012** 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 94.6% 13.293 1.616 **2013** 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 94.6% 13.378 1.675 **2014** 15.004 129.003 13.815 0.0% 94.6% 13.311 1.693 **2015** 14.763 130.307 13.458 0.0% 94.6% 13.003 1.760 **2016** 14.228 131.675 12.860 0.0% 94.6% 12.400 1.828 **2017** 13.635 133.012 12.298 0.0% 94.6% 11.784 1.850 **2018** 13.430 134.370 12.072 0.0% 94.6% 11.555 1.875 **2019** 13.752 135.758 12.364 0.0% 94.6% 11.847 1.905 **2020** 14.463 137.110 13.111 0.0% 94.6% 12.557 1.906

### 2021 15.187 138.330 13.967 0.0% 94.6% 13.342 1.845

**2022** 15.727 139.511 14.546 0.0% 94.6% 13.929 1.798 **2023** 15.914 140.684 14.741 0.0% 94.6% 14.142 1.772 **2024** 15.850 141.862 14.672 0.0% 94.6% 14.086 1.763 **2025** 15.664 143.067 14.459 0.0% 94.6% 13.889 1.774 **2026** 15.376 144.239 14.204 0.0% 94.6% 13.610 1.767 **2027** 15.139 145.355 14.023 0.0% 94.6% 13.401 1.737 **2028** 15.079 146.405 14.029 0.0% 94.6% 13.386 1.693 **2029** 15.299 147.440 14.264 0.0% 94.6% 13.635 1.664 **2030** 15.729 148.500 14.669 0.0% 94.6% 14.066 1.664 **2031** 16.121 149.511 15.111 0.0% 94.6% 14.480 1.642 **2032** 16.408 150.463 15.456 0.0% 94.6% 14.804 1.603 **2033** 16.593 151.423 15.632 0.0% 94.6% 15.003 1.589 **2034** 16.618 152.398 15.643 0.0% 94.6% 15.027 1.591 **2035** 16.513 153.363 15.548 0.0% 94.6% 14.925 1.589 **2036** 16.387 154.322 15.428 0.0% 94.6% 14.798 1.589 **2037** 16.322 155.281 15.363 0.0% 94.6% 14.733 1.589 **2038** 16.367 156.239 15.408 0.0% 94.6% 14.778 1.589 **2039** 16.535 157.198 15.576 0.0% 94.6% 14.946 1.589 **2040** 16.788 158.157 15.829 0.0% 94.6% 15.199 1.589 **2041** 17.056 159.115 16.098 0.0% 94.6% 15.468 1.589 **2042** 17.274 160.074 16.316 0.0% 94.6% 15.685 1.589 **2043** 17.406 161.033 16.447 0.0% 94.6% 15.817 1.589 **2044** 17.452 161.991 16.493 0.0% 94.6% 15.863 1.589 **2045** 17.440 162.950 16.482 0.0% 94.6% 15.851 1.589 **2046** 17.417 163.909 16.459 0.0% 94.6% 15.829 1.589 **2047** 17.430 164.867 16.471 0.0% 94.6% 15.841 1.589 **2048** 17.506 165.826 16.547 0.0% 94.6% 15.917 1.589 **2049** 17.647 166.785 16.688 0.0% 94.6% 16.058 1.589 **2050** 17.831 167.744 16.872 0.0% 94.6% 16.242 1.589 **2051** 18.022 168.702 17.063 0.0% 94.6% 16.433 1.589 **2052** 18.184 169.661 17.226 0.0% 94.6% 16.595 1.589 **2053** 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589 **2054** 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589 **2053** 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589 **2054** 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589 **2055** 18.403 172.537 17.444 0.0% 94.6% 16.814 1.589 **2056** 18.436 173.496 17.477 0.0% 94.6% 16.847 1.589 **2057** 18.490 174.454 17.531 0.0% 94.6% 16.901 1.589 **2058** 18.579 175.413 17.621 0.0% 94.6% 16.990 1.589 **2059** 18.704 176.372 17.745 0.0% 94.6% 17.115 1.589 **2060** 18.851 177.331 17.892 0.0% 94.6% 17.262 1.589 **2061** 18.999 178.289 18.041 0.0% 94.6% 17.411 1.589 **2062** 19.132 179.248 18.173 0.0% 94.6% 17.543 1.589 **2063** 19.238 180.207 18.279 0.0% 94.6% 17.649 1.589 **2064** 19.318 181.165 18.360 0.0% 94.6% 17.729 1.589 **2065** 19.383 182.124 18.424 0.0% 94.6% 17.794 1.589 **2066** 19.446 183.083 18.488 0.0% 94.6% 17.857 1.589 **2067** 19.522 184.041 18.563 0.0% 94.6% 17.933 1.589 **2068** 19.618 185.000 18.659 0.0% 94.6% 18.029 1.589 **2069** 19.732 185.959 18.773 0.0% 94.6% 18.143 1.589 **2070** 19.858 186.918 18.899 0.0% 94.6% 18.269 1.589

### Annual Shipments **Standby Total Energy**  **(site) Equipment Cost** **Oper Cost Total**  **Shipment Saturation** **Efficiency Elec**  **Elec per Unit** **Total Fuel** 

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $billion $ 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 5 10 15 20 25Millions



### 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 7.908 110.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $00.0000.334 10.084 109.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $00.0000.352 11.291 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0103 $00.0000.336 13.888 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $2403.3400.325 14.522 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0105 $2363.4280.318 14.909 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0106 $2323.4540.334 15.054 107.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0107 $2283.4250.341 15.004 107.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0108 $2243.3550.345 14.763 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0109 $2203.2450.348 14.228 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0110 $2163.0780.354 13.635 107.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0111 $2132.9060.359 13.430 107.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0113 $2102.8200.363 13.752 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0114 $2072.8460.365 14.463 106.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0115 $2042.9500.371 0 5

1980

### 15.187 106.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0116 $201 3.0520.376

15.727 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0117 $1983.1140.380 15.914 106.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0118 $1953.1060.385 15.850 105.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0119 $1923.051 0.389 15.664 105.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0120 $1902.9740.392 15.376 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0121 $1872.8820.397 15.139 105.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0122 $1852.8020.402 15.079 105.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0123 $1832.7570.407 15.299 105.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $181 2.7640.415 15.729 105.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $1782.8070.422 16.121 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0125 $1762.8430.429 16.408 104.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0126 $1742.8590.436 16.593 104.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0127 $1722.8570.440 16.618 104.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0128 $1702.8290.446 16.513 104.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $1682.7800.452 16.387 104.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $1662.7280.457 16.322 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0130 $1652.6880.463 16.367 104.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0131 $1632.6670.468 16.535 104.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0132 $161 2.6660.474 16.788 104.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $1602.6790.480 17.056 103.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $1582.6930.485 17.274 103.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0134 $1562.7000.491 17.406 103.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0135 $1552.6930.497 17.452 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0136 $1552.7000.503 17.440 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $1552.6980.509 17.417 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $1552.6950.515 17.430 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0138 $1552.6970.521 17.506 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0139 $1552.7080.527 17.647 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0140 $1552.7300.533 17.831 108.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $1552.7590.539 18.022 108.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $1552.7880.545 18.184 109.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0142 $1552.8130.551 18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $1552.831 0.558 18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $1552.8420.564 18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $1552.831 0.558 18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $1552.8420.564 18.403 111.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $1552.8470.570 18.436 111.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $1552.8520.577 18.490 112.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0146 $1552.861 0.583 18.579 113.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0147 $1552.8750.590 18.704 113.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0148 $1552.8940.597 18.851 114.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $1552.9170.603 18.999 114.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $1552.9400.610 19.132 115.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0150 $1552.9600.617 19.238 116.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0151 $1552.9760.624 19.318 116.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0152 $1552.9890.631 19.383 117.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $1552.9990.638 19.446 117.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $1553.0090.645 19.522 118.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0154 $1553.0200.652 19.618 119.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0155 $1553.0350.659 19.732 119.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0156 $1553.0530.666 19.858 120.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0157 $1553.0720.673**Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 

Series1

Series2



### AHAM Saturations Year MillionPercent 1982 21.4 25.6 1990 77.2 82.7 2001 94.6 90.7 2005 97.2 89.3 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

### Standards Case - PC1

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1 Standards Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses MS Impact** **Repl. Units New**  **Units**

Survival million million % millionmillion **1972** 0.294 **1973** 0.416 **1974** 0.667 **1975** 0.984 **1976** 1.636 **1977** 2.017 **1978** 2.339 **1979** 2.625 **1980** 3.374 14.179 **1981** 4.135 18.098 **1982** 3.807 21.516 **1983** 5.549 26.438 **1984** 8.540 34.050 **1985**10.178 42.937 **1986**11.638 52.875 0.000 **1987**11.793 62.536 2.132 **1988**10.275 70.228 2.583 **1989** 9.680 76.822 3.087 **1990** 7.616 80.731 3.707 0.0% 0.000 **1991** 6.557 82.779 4.509 0.0% 0.000 **1992** 7.118 84.337 5.560 0.0% 0.000 **1993** 7.168 84.615 6.890 0.0% 0.000 **1994** 8.488 84.741 8.362 0.0% 0.000 **1995** 8.080 83.190 9.631 0.0% 0.000 **1996** 8.683 81.529 10.344 0.0% 0.000 **1997** 9.051 80.210 10.370 0.0% 0.000 **1998**10.261 80.652 9.820 0.0% 0.000 **1999**11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2000**12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2001** 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2002**13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2003**14.131105.150 7.717 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2004**15.371112.397 8.124 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2005**13.721117.518 8.601 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2006**13.550121.917 9.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2007**11.732123.812 9.837 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.908 0.000 **2008**11.227124.369 10.669 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.084 0.000 **2009** 9.530122.334 11.565 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.291 0.000 **2010**13.888123.819 12.403 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.022 0.866 **2011** 14.522125.255 13.086 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.130 1.392 **2012**14.909126.594 13.571 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.293 1.616 **2013**15.054127.814 13.834 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.378 1.675 **2014**14.967128.965 13.815 0.0% 93.5% -0.2% 13.278 1.689 **2015**14.734130.241 13.458 0.0% 93.5% -0.2% 12.978 1.757 **2016**14.206131.587 12.860 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 12.381 1.825 **2017**13.616132.906 12.298 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.768 1.848 **2018**13.415134.249 12.072 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.542 1.873 **2019**13.736135.622 12.363 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.833 1.903

### 202014.447136.959 13.109 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 12.542 1.904

**2021** 15.168138.164 13.963 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.325 1.843 **2022**15.704139.331 14.538 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.908 1.796 **2023**15.886140.490 14.727 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.116 1.770 **2024**15.817141.654 14.653 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.055 1.762 **2025**15.628142.845 14.437 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.855 1.773 **2026**15.342144.005 14.182 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.576 1.765 **2027**15.106145.108 14.003 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.370 1.736 **2028**15.048146.145 14.011 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.357 1.691 **2029**15.268147.167 14.247 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.606 1.663 **2030**15.697148.214 14.650 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.035 1.663 **2031** 16.086149.211 15.089 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.446 1.640 **2032**16.369150.150 15.431 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.768 1.602 **2033**16.551151.096 15.604 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.963 1.588 **2034**16.574152.057 15.613 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.984 1.590 **2035**16.467153.010 15.515 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.880 1.588 **2036**16.340153.955 15.395 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.753 1.588 **2037**16.276154.900 15.330 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.688 1.588 **2038**16.321155.846 15.376 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.733 1.588 **2039**16.488156.791 15.543 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.901 1.588 **2040**16.740157.736 15.795 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.152 1.588 **2041** 17.006158.681 16.061 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.418 1.588 **2042**17.221159.625 16.276 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.633 1.588 **2043**17.350160.570 16.405 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.762 1.588 **2044** 0.000144.121 **2045** 0.000127.684 **2046** 0.000111.272 **2047** 0.000 94.855 **2048** 0.000 78.412 **2049** 0.000 62.024 **2050** 0.000 46.003 **2051** 0.000 31.030 **2052** 0.000 18.180 **2053** 0.000 8.641 **2052** 0.000 18.180 **2053** 0.000 8.641 **2054** 0.000 3.015 **2055** 0.000 0.669 **2056** 0.000 0.077 **2057** 0.000 0.004 **2058** 0.000 0.000 **2059** 0.000 0.000 **2060** 0.000 0.000 **2061** 0.000 0.000 **2062** 0.000 0.000 **2063** 0.000 0.000 **2064** 0.000 0.000 **2065** 0.000 0.000 **2066** 0.000 0.000 **2067** 0.000 0.000 **2068** 0.000 0.000 **2069** 0.000 0.000 **2070** 0.000 0.000

### UEC **Cumulative Total Energy** 

**(site) Incr. Equip. Cost** **Oper Cost delta UEC** 

**Total Shipment** **Saturation Elec** **Shipment Impact** **Shipment**

**Impact Elec**  **per Unit Total**  **Fuel Elec** 

million kWh/yrmillion quad $ billion $billion $kWh/yr

24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 73.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 75.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.000 77.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 79.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 81.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 83.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 85.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 87.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 89.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 91.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 93.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 96.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 98.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 100.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 103.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 105.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 108.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00 7.908 110.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $00.000 0.334 0.00 10.084 109.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $00.000 0.352 0.00 11.291 107.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0103 $00.000 0.336 0.00 13.888 107.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $00.000 0.325 0.00 14.522 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0105 $00.000 0.318 0.00 14.909 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0106 $00.000 0.334 0.00 15.054 107.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0107 $00.000 0.341 0.00 14.967 107.5% 8.7 0.037 0.037 0.0100 $20.024 0.31915.88 14.734 107.3% 8.7 0.028 0.066 0.0093 $20.024 0.29615.88 14.206 107.2% 8.7 0.022 0.088 0.0087 $20.022 0.27715.88 13.616 107.0% 8.7 0.018 0.106 0.0080 $20.021 0.25815.88 13.415 106.9% 8.7 0.015 0.121 0.0074 $20.020 0.23915.88 13.736 106.7% 8.7 0.015 0.136 0.0068 $20.021 0.21815.88

### 14.447 106.5% 8.7 0.016 0.152 0.0062 $10.021 0.19915.88

15.168 106.3% 8.7 0.019 0.168 0.0055 $10.022 0.17915.88 15.704 106.1% 8.7 0.022 0.186 0.0050 $10.023 0.16215.88 15.886 105.9% 8.7 0.027 0.205 0.0046 $10.023 0.14915.88 15.817 105.8% 8.7 0.033 0.226 0.0043 $10.022 0.14215.88 15.628 105.6% 8.7 0.036 0.246 0.0043 $10.022 0.13915.88 15.342 105.5% 8.7 0.035 0.262 0.0043 $10.021 0.14015.88 15.106 105.3% 8.7 0.032 0.274 0.0043 $10.020 0.14215.88 15.048 105.1% 8.7 0.031 0.283 0.0043 $10.020 0.14415.88 15.268 105.0% 8.7 0.031 0.294 0.0044 $10.020 0.14615.88 15.697 104.9% 8.7 0.032 0.308 0.0044 $10.020 0.14915.88 16.086 104.7% 8.7 0.035 0.323 0.0044 $10.021 0.15115.88 16.369 104.6% 8.7 0.038 0.340 0.0045 $10.021 0.15415.88 16.551 104.5% 8.7 0.042 0.358 0.0045 $10.021 0.15515.88 16.574 104.3% 8.7 0.044 0.375 0.0045 $10.020 0.15715.88 16.467 104.2% 8.7 0.046 0.392 0.0045 $10.020 0.15915.88 16.340 104.1% 8.7 0.046 0.407 0.0046 $10.020 0.16115.88 16.276 104.0% 8.7 0.046 0.421 0.0046 $10.019 0.16315.88 16.321 103.9% 8.7 0.046 0.434 0.0046 $10.019 0.16515.88 16.488 103.8% 8.7 0.046 0.447 0.0046 $10.019 0.16715.88 16.740 103.7% 8.7 0.048 0.461 0.0047 $10.019 0.16915.88 17.006 103.6% 8.7 0.050 0.477 0.0047 $10.020 0.17115.88 17.221 103.5% 8.7 0.053 0.494 0.0047 $10.020 0.17315.88 17.350 103.4% 8.7 0.056 0.511 0.0048 $10.019 0.17515.88 8.717.45217.922 0.0043 $10.000 0.15815.88 8.717.44035.320 0.0038 $10.000 0.14115.88 8.717.41752.693 0.0033 $10.000 0.12415.88 8.717.43070.070 0.0028 $10.000 0.10615.88 8.717.50687.479 0.0023 $10.000 0.08815.88 8.717.647104.883 0.0018 $10.000 0.07015.88 8.717.831122.109 0.0014 $10.000 0.05215.88 8.718.022138.784 0.0009 $10.000 0.03515.88 8.718.184154.330 0.0005 $10.000 0.02115.88 8.718.299168.020 0.0003 $10.000 0.01015.88 8.718.184154.330 0.0005 $10.000 0.02115.88 8.718.299168.020 0.0003 $10.000 0.01015.88 8.718.366179.158 0.0001 $10.000 0.00315.88 8.718.403187.343 0.0000 $10.000 0.00115.88 8.718.436192.690 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.718.490195.844 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.718.579196.875 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.718.704197.953 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.718.851199.075 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.718.999200.220 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.132201.361 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.238202.478 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.318203.558 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.383204.607 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.446205.640 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.522206.676 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.618207.731 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.732208.812 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88 8.719.858209.917 0.0000 $10.000 0.00015.88

### Energy **Saving Energy**  **Savings Oper. Cost** 

**Saving Discount** 

**Factor (Non monetized)** **Discounted**

**Energy Savings** **Discount**

**Factor (Monetary** 

**) Incr. Equip.**  **Cost Oper. Cost** 

**Saving** quad billion $ quad billion $billion $ **Discounted Values**

8 10 12 14 16 18Millions **Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 



### 0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.026 0.915 0.002 0.915 0.022 0.024 0.005 0.051 0.888 0.004 0.888 0.021 0.046 0.007 0.076 0.863 0.006 0.863 0.019 0.066 0.009 0.100 0.837 0.007 0.837 0.018 0.084 0.010 0.124 0.813 0.008 0.813 0.017 0.101 0.011 0.147 0.789 0.009 0.789 0.016 0.116 0 2 4 6 8 10

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Millions

Base Case Standards Case

### 0.013 0.172 0.766 0.010 0.766 0.016 0.131

0.014 0.196 0.744 0.011 0.744 0.016 0.146 0.016 0.218 0.722 0.011 0.722 0.016 0.157 0.015 0.235 0.701 0.011 0.701 0.016 0.165 0.015 0.246 0.681 0.010 0.681 0.015 0.168 0.015 0.252 0.661 0.010 0.661 0.014 0.167 0.014 0.256 0.642 0.009 0.642 0.013 0.164 0.015 0.259 0.623 0.009 0.623 0.013 0.162 0.015 0.263 0.605 0.009 0.605 0.012 0.159 0.015 0.268 0.587 0.009 0.587 0.012 0.157 0.015 0.272 0.570 0.008 0.570 0.012 0.155 0.015 0.277 0.554 0.008 0.554 0.011 0.153 0.015 0.281 0.538 0.008 0.538 0.011 0.151 0.015 0.284 0.522 0.008 0.522 0.011 0.148 0.015 0.288 0.507 0.008 0.507 0.010 0.146 0.015 0.291 0.492 0.008 0.492 0.010 0.143 0.015 0.295 0.478 0.007 0.478 0.009 0.141 0.016 0.298 0.464 0.007 0.464 0.009 0.138 0.016 0.302 0.450 0.007 0.450 0.009 0.136 0.016 0.306 0.437 0.007 0.437 0.008 0.134 0.016 0.309 0.424 0.007 0.424 0.008 0.131 0.016 0.313 0.412 0.007 0.412 0.008 0.129 0.016 0.317 0.400 0.006 0.400 0.008 0.127 0.016 0.320 0.388 0.006 0.388 0.008 0.124 0.014 0.289 0.377 0.005 0.377 0.000 0.109 0.013 0.258 0.366 0.005 0.366 0.000 0.094 0.011 0.226 0.355 0.004 0.355 0.000 0.080 0.010 0.194 0.345 0.003 0.345 0.000 0.067 0.008 0.161 0.335 0.003 0.335 0.000 0.054 0.006 0.128 0.325 0.002 0.325 0.000 0.042 0.005 0.096 0.316 0.001 0.316 0.000 0.030 0.003 0.065 0.307 0.001 0.307 0.000 0.020 0.002 0.038 0.298 0.001 0.298 0.000 0.011 0.001 0.018 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.005 0.002 0.038 0.298 0.001 0.298 0.000 0.011 0.001 0.018 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.006 0.281 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.272 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

**Year**CO2 Marg.

Emiss. rateNOx Marg.

Emiss. rateCO2 Price

$/ton (1)CO2 Price

$/ton (2)CO2 Price

$/ton (3)CO2 Price

$/ton (4) CO2

reductionCO2 Value

(1) CO2 Value

(2)

Mt/quadkt/quad2007 $2007 $2007 $2007 $ Mt **1972 1973**  **1974 1975**  **1976 1977**  **1978 1979**  **1980 1981**  **1982 1983**  **1984 1985**  **1986 1987**  **1988 1989**  **1990 1991**  **1992 1993**  **1994 1995**  **1996** million 2010$

**1997 1998**  **1999 2000**  **2001 2002**  **2003 2004**  **2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40$35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2011** 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90$35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2012** 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40$36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2013** 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80$37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2014** 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30$37.70 $71.20 0.18 0.90 4.03 **2015** 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80$38.40 $72.80 0.36 1.76 7.93 **2016** 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30$39.00 $74.40 0.53 2.56 11.62 **2017** 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80$39.70 $76.00 0.68 3.21 14.63 **2018** 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30$40.40 $77.50 0.77 3.61 16.57 **2019** 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80$41.00 $79.10 0.85 3.89 18.02**2020** 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30$41.70 $80.70 0.96 4.40 20.21

**2021** 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00$42.50 $82.60 1.09 4.97 22.90 **2022** 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60$43.40 $84.60 1.19 5.37 24.75 **2023** 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30$44.20 $86.50 1.16 5.19 24.01 **2024** 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90$45.00 $88.40 1.17 5.12 24.07 **2025** 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60$45.90 $90.40 1.12 4.84 22.85 **2026** 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20$46.70 $92.30 1.10 4.69 22.23 **2027** 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90$47.50 $94.20 1.11 4.66 22.26 **2028** 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50$48.40 $96.20 1.12 4.62 22.19 **2029** 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10$49.20 $98.10 1.13 4.58 22.11 **2030** 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80$50.00$100.00 1.13 4.53 22.09 **2031** 141.73 111.09$10.00 $33.40$50.90$102.00 1.14 4.48 21.98 **2032** 141.73 111.09$10.30 $34.10$51.70$103.90 1.15 4.42 21.93 **2033** 141.73 111.09$10.60 $34.70$52.50$105.80 1.16 4.36 21.80 **2034** 141.73 111.09$10.90 $35.40$53.40$107.80 1.16 4.30 21.73 **2035** 141.73 111.09$11.20 $36.00$54.20$109.70 1.17 4.23 21.59 **2036** 141.73 111.09$11.50 $36.70$55.00$111.60 1.18 4.17 21.50 **2037** 141.73 111.09$11.80 $37.30$55.90$113.60 1.19 4.10 21.34 **2038** 141.73 111.09$12.10 $37.90$56.70$115.50 1.19 4.02 21.18 **2039** 141.73 111.09$12.40 $38.60$57.50$117.40 1.20 3.95 21.07 **2040** 141.73 111.09$12.70 $39.20$58.40$119.30 1.21 3.88 20.90 **2041** 141.73 111.09$13.00 $39.80$59.00$121.00 1.21 3.80 20.73 **2042** 141.73 111.09$13.30 $40.40$59.70$122.70 1.22 3.73 20.55 **2043** 141.73 111.09$13.60 $40.90$60.40$124.40 1.23 3.65 20.32 **2044** 141.73 111.09$13.90 $41.50$61.00$126.10 1.10 3.19 17.97 **2045** 141.73 111.09$14.20 $42.10$61.70$127.80 0.98 2.75 15.68 **2046** 141.73 111.09$14.50 $42.60$62.40$129.40 0.85 2.33 13.42 **2047** 141.73 111.09$14.80 $43.20$63.00$131.10 0.73 1.93 11.26 **2048** 141.73 111.09$15.10 $43.80$63.70$132.80 0.60 1.55 9.17 **2049** 141.73 111.09$15.40 $44.40$64.40$134.50 0.47 1.19 7.14 **2050** 141.73 111.09$15.70 $44.90$65.00$136.20 0.35 0.86 5.20 **2051** 141.73 111.09$16.00 $45.50$65.70$137.90 0.24 0.56 3.45 **2052** 141.73 111.09$16.30 $46.10$66.40$139.70 0.14 0.32 1.99 **2053** 141.73 111.09$16.70 $46.70$67.10$141.50 0.07 0.15 0.93 **2054** 141.73 111.09$17.00 $47.30$67.70$143.30 0.02 0.05 0.32 **2055** 141.73 111.09$17.30 $47.90$68.40$145.20 0.01 0.01 0.07 **2056** 141.73 111.09$17.70 $48.50$69.10$147.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 **2057** 141.73 111.09$18.00 $49.10$69.90$148.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2058** 141.73 111.09$18.40 $49.80$70.60$150.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2059** 141.73 111.09$18.80 $50.40$71.30$152.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2060** 141.73 111.09$19.10 $51.00$72.00$154.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2061** 141.73 111.09$19.50 $51.70$72.80$156.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2062** 141.73 111.09$19.90 $52.40$73.50$158.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2063** 141.73 111.09$20.30 $53.00$74.30$160.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2064** 141.73 111.09$20.70 $53.70$75.00$162.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2065** 141.73 111.09$21.10 $54.40$75.80$164.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2066** 141.73 111.09$21.60 $55.10$76.60$167.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2067** 141.73 111.09$22.00 $55.80$77.40$169.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2068** 141.73 111.09$22.40 $56.50$78.20$171.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2069** 141.73 111.09$22.90 $57.30$79.00$173.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2070** 141.73 111.09$23.30 $58.00$79.80$175.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2071** 141.73 111.09$23.80 $58.70$80.60$177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2072** 141.73 111.09$24.30 $59.50$81.50$180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2073** 141.73 111.09$24.80 $60.30$82.30$182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2074** 141.73 111.09$25.30 $61.00$83.10$184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2075** 141.73 111.09$25.80 $61.80$84.00$187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2076** 141.73 111.09$26.30 $62.60$84.90$189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00**2077** 141.73 111.09$26.80 $63.40$85.70$192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

**2078** 141.73 111.09$27.40 $64.20$86.60$194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2079** 141.73 111.09$27.90 $65.10$87.50$197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2080** 141.73 111.09$28.50 $65.90$88.40$199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2081** 141.73 111.09$29.00 $66.70$89.30$202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2082** 141.73 111.09$29.60 $67.60$90.20$204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2083** 141.73 111.09$30.20 $68.50$91.20$207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2084** 141.73 111.09$30.80 $69.30$92.10$209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2085** 141.73 111.09$31.40 $70.20$93.10$212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2086** 141.73 111.09$32.10 $71.10$94.00$215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2087** 141.73 111.09$32.70 $72.10$95.00$218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2088** 141.73 111.09$33.30 $73.00$96.00$220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2089** 141.73 111.09$34.00 $73.90$96.90$223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2090** 141.73 111.09$34.70 $74.90$97.90$226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2091** 141.73 111.09$35.40 $75.80$99.00$229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2092** 141.73 111.09$36.10 $76.80$100.00$232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2093** 141.73 111.09$36.80 $77.80$101.00$235.40 0.00 0.00 0.002.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value (3) CO2 Value

(4) NOx Price

$/kt (1)NOx Price

$/kt (2)NOx Price

$/kt (3)NOx Price

$/kt (4)NOx Price

$/kt (5)NOx Price

$/kt (6) NOx

reductionNOx Value

(1)

kt million 2010$ million 2010$

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 6.62 12.32 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.15 0.06 13.05 24.26 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.29 0.12 19.11 35.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.43 0.17 24.12 44.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.55 0.21 27.38 50.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.63 0.23 29.77 55.24 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.69 0.2533.48 62.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.78 0.27

37.85 70.06 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.89 0.30 41.05 75.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.97 0.32 39.75 73.37 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.94 0.30 39.93 73.63 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.29 37.94 69.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.91 0.27 36.98 67.94 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.26 36.99 67.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.25 37.04 67.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.91 0.25 36.99 67.56 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.92 0.24 36.93 67.34 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.92 0.24 36.93 67.14 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.93 0.23 36.82 66.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.93 0.23 36.71 66.47 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.94 0.22 36.66 66.17 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.95 0.22 36.53 65.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.95 0.21 36.39 65.38 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.21 36.30 65.01 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.20 36.14 64.56 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.97 0.20 35.98 64.10 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.98 0.19 35.86 63.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.98 0.19 35.56 63.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.99 0.18 35.31 62.41 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.99 0.18 35.06 61.80 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 1.00 0.17 31.01 54.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.15 27.11 47.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.79 0.13 23.31 40.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.69 0.11 19.57 34.18 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.59 0.09 15.96 27.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.49 0.07 12.45 21.61 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.39 0.06 9.09 15.76 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.29 0.04 6.05 10.45 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.19 0.03 3.49 6.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.11 0.02 1.64 2.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.05 0.01 0.56 0.96 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.02 0.00 0.12 0.21 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.003.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value (2) NOx Value

(3) NOx Value

(4) NOx Value

(5) NOx Value

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.62 0.05 0.31 0.56 0.66 1.20 0.10 0.57 1.03 0.95 1.73 0.14 0.78 1.43 1.17 2.13 0.17 0.93 1.70 1.30 2.37 0.18 0.99 1.81 1.38 2.52 0.18 1.02 1.861.52 2.78 0.19 1.08 1.97

1.68 3.06 0.20 1.15 2.09 1.78 3.24 0.21 1.17 2.13 1.68 3.06 0.19 1.06 1.94 1.65 3.01 0.18 1.01 1.83 1.53 2.79 0.16 0.90 1.64 1.46 2.66 0.15 0.82 1.50 1.43 2.60 0.14 0.78 1.41 1.40 2.54 0.13 0.73 1.33 1.37 2.49 0.12 0.69 1.25 1.33 2.43 0.11 0.65 1.18 1.30 2.38 0.11 0.61 1.11 1.27 2.32 0.10 0.57 1.04 1.25 2.27 0.10 0.54 0.98 1.22 2.22 0.09 0.51 0.92 1.19 2.17 0.08 0.48 0.87 1.16 2.12 0.08 0.45 0.82 1.13 2.07 0.07 0.42 0.77 1.11 2.02 0.07 0.40 0.72 1.08 1.97 0.07 0.37 0.68 1.06 1.93 0.06 0.35 0.64 1.03 1.88 0.06 0.33 0.60 1.01 1.84 0.05 0.31 0.56 0.98 1.79 0.05 0.29 0.53 0.86 1.56 0.04 0.24 0.44 0.74 1.35 0.04 0.20 0.37 0.62 1.14 0.03 0.16 0.30 0.52 0.94 0.02 0.13 0.24 0.41 0.76 0.02 0.10 0.18 0.32 0.58 0.01 0.07 0.14 0.23 0.42 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.27 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

### Base Case - PC2

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2 Base Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses Repl. Units** **New Units**  Survivalmillion million million millionmillion **1972** 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000 **1973** 0.004 0.007 0.000 0.000 **1974** 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.000 **1975** 0.010 0.024 0.000 0.000 **1976** 0.017 0.040 0.000 0.000 **1977** 0.020 0.061 0.000 0.000 **1978** 0.024 0.084 0.000 0.000 **1979** 0.027 0.110 0.000 0.000 **1980** 0.034 0.143 0.001 0.001 **1981** 0.042 0.183 0.002 0.002 **1982** 0.038 0.217 0.004 0.004 **1983** 0.056 0.267 0.006 0.006 **1984** 0.086 0.344 0.009 0.009 **1985** 0.103 0.434 0.013 0.013 **1986** 0.118 0.534 0.017 0.017 **1987** 0.119 0.632 0.022 0.022 **1988** 0.104 0.709 0.026 0.026 **1989** 0.098 0.776 0.031 0.031 **1990** 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.037 **1991** 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.041 **1992** 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.053 **1993** 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.064 **1994** 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.081 **1995** 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.092 **1996** 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.098 **1997** 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.099 **1998** 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.097 0.000 **1999** 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.087 0.000 **2000** 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.078 0.000 **2001** 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.073 0.000 **2002** 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.069 0.000 **2003** 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.072 0.000 **2004** 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.076 0.000 **2005** 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.082 0.000 **2006** 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.084 0.000 **2007** 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.080 0.000 **2008** 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.102 0.000 **2009** 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.114 0.000 **2010** 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.132 0.009 **2011** 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.133 0.014 **2012** 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.016 **2013** 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.1350.017 **2014** 0.152 1.303 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.017 **2015** 0.149 1.316 0.136 0.0% 94.6% 0.131 0.018 **2016** 0.144 1.330 0.130 0.0% 94.6% 0.1250.018 **2017** 0.138 1.344 0.124 0.0% 94.6% 0.119 0.019 **2018** 0.136 1.357 0.122 0.0% 94.6% 0.117 0.019 **2019** 0.139 1.371 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.120 0.019 **2020** 0.146 1.385 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.127 0.019

### 2021 0.153 1.397 0.141 0.0% 94.6% 0.1350.019

**2022** 0.159 1.409 0.147 0.0% 94.6% 0.141 0.018 **2023** 0.161 1.421 0.149 0.0% 94.6% 0.143 0.018 **2024** 0.160 1.433 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.018 **2025** 0.158 1.445 0.146 0.0% 94.6% 0.140 0.018 **2026** 0.155 1.457 0.143 0.0% 94.6% 0.137 0.018 **2027** 0.153 1.468 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.1350.018 **2028** 0.152 1.479 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.1350.017 **2029** 0.155 1.489 0.144 0.0% 94.6% 0.138 0.017 **2030** 0.159 1.500 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.017 **2031** 0.163 1.510 0.153 0.0% 94.6% 0.146 0.017 **2032** 0.166 1.520 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.150 0.016 **2033** 0.168 1.530 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016 **2034** 0.168 1.539 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016 **2035** 0.167 1.549 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016 **2036** 0.166 1.559 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2037** 0.165 1.568 0.155 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2038** 0.165 1.578 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016 **2039** 0.167 1.588 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016 **2040** 0.170 1.598 0.160 0.0% 94.6% 0.154 0.016 **2041** 0.172 1.607 0.163 0.0% 94.6% 0.156 0.016 **2042** 0.174 1.617 0.165 0.0% 94.6% 0.158 0.016 **2043** 0.176 1.627 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2044** 0.176 1.636 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2045** 0.176 1.646 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2046** 0.176 1.656 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2047** 0.176 1.665 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016 **2048** 0.177 1.675 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.161 0.016 **2049** 0.178 1.685 0.169 0.0% 94.6% 0.162 0.016 **2050** 0.180 1.694 0.170 0.0% 94.6% 0.164 0.016 **2051** 0.182 1.704 0.172 0.0% 94.6% 0.166 0.016 **2052** 0.184 1.714 0.174 0.0% 94.6% 0.168 0.016 **2053** 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2054** 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2053** 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2054** 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016 **2055** 0.186 1.743 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016 **2056** 0.186 1.752 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016 **2057** 0.187 1.762 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.171 0.016 **2058** 0.188 1.772 0.178 0.0% 94.6% 0.172 0.016 **2059** 0.189 1.782 0.179 0.0% 94.6% 0.173 0.016 **2060** 0.190 1.791 0.181 0.0% 94.6% 0.174 0.016 **2061** 0.192 1.801 0.182 0.0% 94.6% 0.176 0.016 **2062** 0.193 1.811 0.184 0.0% 94.6% 0.177 0.016 **2063** 0.194 1.820 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.178 0.016 **2064** 0.195 1.830 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.179 0.016 **2065** 0.196 1.840 0.186 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016 **2066** 0.196 1.849 0.187 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016 **2067** 0.197 1.859 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.181 0.016 **2068** 0.198 1.869 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.182 0.016 **2069** 0.199 1.878 0.190 0.0% 94.6% 0.183 0.016 **2070** 0.201 1.888 0.191 0.0% 94.6% 0.1850.016

### Annual Shipments **Standby Total Energy**  **(site) Equipment Cost** **Oper Cost Total**  **Shipment Saturation** **Efficiency Elec**  **Elec per Unit** **Total Fuel** 

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $billion $ 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0 0 0 0 0Millions



### 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0.080 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $00.0000.005 0.102 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $00.0000.006 0.114 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $00.0000.005 0.140 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $5190.0730.005 0.147 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $5090.0750.005 0.151 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $5000.0750.005 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $491 0.0750.005 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4820.0730.006 0.149 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4740.071 0.006 0.144 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4670.0670.006 0.138 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4600.0630.006 0.136 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4530.061 0.006 0.139 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4460.0620.006 0.146 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4400.0640.006 0 0

1980

### 0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4330.0660.006

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4270.0680.006 0.161 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $421 0.0680.006 0.160 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4150.0660.006 0.158 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4100.0650.006 0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $4040.0630.006 0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3990.061 0.006 0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3940.0600.007 0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3900.0600.007 0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3850.061 0.007 0.163 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3800.0620.007 0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3760.0620.007 0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $371 0.0620.007 0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3670.0620.007 0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3630.061 0.007 0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3590.0590.007 0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3550.0590.007 0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $351 0.0580.008 0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3480.0580.008 0.170 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3440.0580.008 0.172 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $341 0.0590.008 0.174 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3370.0590.008 0.176 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.177 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.008 0.178 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0590.009 0.180 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0600.009 0.182 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.061 0.009 0.184 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.061 0.009 0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.187 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0620.009 0.188 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0630.009 0.189 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0630.010 0.190 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0640.010 0.192 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0640.010 0.193 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0640.010 0.194 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0650.010 0.195 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0650.010 0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0650.010 0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0660.010 0.197 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0660.010 0.198 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $3340.0660.011 0.199 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $3340.0670.011 0.201 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $3340.0670.011**Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 

Series1

Series2



### AHAM Saturations Year MillionPercent 1982 21.4 25.6 1990 77.2 82.7 2001 94.6 90.7 2005 97.2 89.3 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

### Standards Case - PC2

**Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2 Standards Case**  **Market Segments Annual Shipments** 

**Year New** 

**Shipment Total Stock** **Retiring Units**  **% Early** 

**Repl. Saturation in** 

**New Houses MS Impact** **Repl. Units New**  **Units**

Survival million million % millionmillion **1972** 0.003 **1973** 0.004 **1974** 0.007 **1975** 0.010 **1976** 0.017 **1977** 0.020 **1978** 0.024 **1979** 0.027 **1980** 0.034 0.143 **1981** 0.042 0.183 **1982** 0.038 0.217 **1983** 0.056 0.267 **1984** 0.086 0.344 **1985** 0.103 0.434 **1986** 0.118 0.534 0.000 **1987** 0.119 0.632 0.022 **1988** 0.104 0.709 0.026 **1989** 0.098 0.776 0.031 **1990** 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.0% 0.000 **1991** 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.0% 0.000 **1992** 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.0% 0.000 **1993** 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.0% 0.000 **1994** 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.0% 0.000 **1995** 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.0% 0.000 **1996** 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.0% 0.000 **1997** 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.0% 0.000 **1998** 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.0% 0.000 **1999** 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2000** 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2001** 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2002** 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2003** 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2004** 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2005** 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2006** 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.0% 0.000 **2007** 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.080 0.000 **2008** 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.102 0.000 **2009** 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.114 0.000 **2010** 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.132 0.009 **2011** 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.133 0.014 **2012** 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.134 0.016 **2013** 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1350.017 **2014** 0.150 1.302 0.140 0.0% 0.9% -1.0% 0.133 0.017 **2015** 0.148 1.314 0.136 0.0% 0.9% -0.8% 0.130 0.018 **2016** 0.143 1.326 0.130 0.0% 0.9% -0.6% 0.124 0.018 **2017** 0.137 1.339 0.124 0.0% 0.9% -0.5% 0.118 0.019 **2018** 0.135 1.352 0.122 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.116 0.019 **2019** 0.138 1.366 0.125 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.119 0.019

### 2020 0.145 1.379 0.132 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.126 0.019

**2021** 0.153 1.390 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.134 0.019 **2022** 0.158 1.402 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.140 0.018 **2023** 0.160 1.413 0.148 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.142 0.018 **2024** 0.159 1.424 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.141 0.018 **2025** 0.157 1.436 0.145 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.139 0.018 **2026** 0.154 1.447 0.143 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.136 0.018 **2027** 0.152 1.458 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.134 0.017 **2028** 0.151 1.468 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.134 0.017 **2029** 0.153 1.478 0.143 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.137 0.017 **2030** 0.158 1.488 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.141 0.017 **2031** 0.161 1.498 0.152 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.1450.017 **2032** 0.164 1.507 0.155 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.148 0.016 **2033** 0.166 1.516 0.157 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.150 0.016 **2034** 0.166 1.525 0.157 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.150 0.016 **2035** 0.165 1.535 0.156 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.149 0.016 **2036** 0.164 1.544 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.148 0.016 **2037** 0.163 1.553 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.147 0.016 **2038** 0.163 1.562 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.147 0.016 **2039** 0.165 1.571 0.156 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.149 0.016 **2040** 0.168 1.580 0.158 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.152 0.016 **2041** 0.170 1.589 0.161 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.154 0.016 **2042** 0.172 1.598 0.163 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.156 0.016 **2043** 0.174 1.608 0.164 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.158 0.016 **2044** 0.000 1.443 **2045** 0.000 1.278 **2046** 0.000 1.114 **2047** 0.000 0.949 **2048** 0.000 0.785 **2049** 0.000 0.621 **2050** 0.000 0.460 **2051** 0.000 0.310 **2052** 0.000 0.182 **2053** 0.000 0.086 **2052** 0.000 0.182 **2053** 0.000 0.086 **2054** 0.000 0.030 **2055** 0.000 0.007 **2056** 0.000 0.001 **2057** 0.000 0.000 **2058** 0.000 0.000 **2059** 0.000 0.000 **2060** 0.000 0.000 **2061** 0.000 0.000 **2062** 0.000 0.000 **2063** 0.000 0.000 **2064** 0.000 0.000 **2065** 0.000 0.000 **2066** 0.000 0.000 **2067** 0.000 0.000 **2068** 0.000 0.000 **2069** 0.000 0.000 **2070** 0.000 0.000

### UEC **Cumulative Total Energy** 

**(site) Incr. Equip. Cost** **Oper Cost delta UEC** 

**Total Shipment** **Saturation Elec** **Shipment Impact** **Shipment**

**Impact Elec**  **per Unit Total**  **Fuel Elec** 

million kWh/yrmillion quad $ billion $billion $kWh/yr

39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.7% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.080 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.102 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.006 0.00 0.114 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.140 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.147 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.151 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.152 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $00.000 0.005 0.00 0.150 1.1% 19.1 0.002 0.002 0.0002 $140.002 0.00519.98 0.148 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.003 0.0002 $140.002 0.00519.98 0.143 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.004 0.0001 $130.002 0.00519.98 0.137 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.004 0.0001 $130.002 0.00419.98 0.135 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.005 0.0001 $130.002 0.00419.98 0.138 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.006 0.0001 $130.002 0.00419.98

### 0.145 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.006 0.0001 $130.002 0.00419.98

0.153 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.007 0.0001 $120.002 0.00419.98 0.158 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.008 0.0001 $120.002 0.00319.98 0.160 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.008 0.0001 $120.002 0.00319.98 0.159 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.009 0.0001 $120.002 0.00319.98 0.157 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.010 0.0001 $120.002 0.00319.98 0.154 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.011 0.0001 $120.002 0.00319.98 0.152 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.011 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.151 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.012 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.153 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.012 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.158 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.013 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.161 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.013 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.164 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.014 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.166 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.015 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.166 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.015 0.0001 $110.002 0.00319.98 0.165 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.016 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.164 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.017 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.163 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.017 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.163 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.018 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.165 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.018 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.168 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.019 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.170 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.020 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.172 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.020 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 0.174 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.021 0.0001 $100.002 0.00419.98 19.1 0.176 0.196 0.0001 $100.000 0.00319.98 19.1 0.176 0.370 0.0001 $100.000 0.00319.98 19.1 0.176 0.544 0.0001 $100.000 0.00319.98 19.1 0.176 0.718 0.0001 $100.000 0.00219.98 19.1 0.177 0.893 0.0001 $100.000 0.00219.98 19.1 0.178 1.067 0.0000 $100.000 0.00219.98 19.1 0.180 1.240 0.0000 $100.000 0.00119.98 19.1 0.182 1.407 0.0000 $100.000 0.00119.98 19.1 0.184 1.562 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.185 1.699 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.184 1.562 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.185 1.699 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.186 1.811 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.186 1.893 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.186 1.947 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.187 1.978 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.188 1.989 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.189 2.000 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.190 2.011 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.192 2.022 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.193 2.034 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.194 2.045 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.195 2.056 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.196 2.067 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.196 2.077 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.197 2.088 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.198 2.098 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.199 2.109 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98 19.1 0.201 2.120 0.0000 $100.000 0.00019.98

### Energy **Saving Energy**  **Savings Oper. Cost** 

**Saving Discount** 

**Factor (Non monetized)** **Discounted**

**Energy Savings** **Discount**

**Factor (Monetary** 

**) Incr. Equip.**  **Cost Oper. Cost** 

**Saving** quad billion $ quad billion $billion $ **Discounted Values**

0 0 0 0 0 0Millions **Shipment**

**- Historical and Projected** 



### 0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.915 0.000 0.915 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.888 0.000 0.888 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.863 0.000 0.863 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.837 0.000 0.837 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.813 0.000 0.813 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.789 0.000 0.789 0.001 0.001 0 0 0 0 0 0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Millions

Base Case Standards Case

### 0.000 0.002 0.766 0.000 0.766 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.002 0.744 0.000 0.744 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.722 0.000 0.722 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.701 0.000 0.701 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.681 0.000 0.681 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.661 0.000 0.661 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.642 0.000 0.642 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.623 0.000 0.623 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.605 0.000 0.605 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.587 0.000 0.587 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.570 0.000 0.570 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.554 0.000 0.554 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.538 0.000 0.538 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.522 0.000 0.522 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.507 0.000 0.507 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.492 0.000 0.492 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.478 0.000 0.478 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.464 0.000 0.464 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.450 0.000 0.450 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.437 0.000 0.437 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.424 0.000 0.424 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.412 0.000 0.412 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.400 0.000 0.400 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.388 0.000 0.388 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.377 0.000 0.377 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.366 0.000 0.366 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.355 0.000 0.355 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.345 0.000 0.345 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.335 0.000 0.335 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.325 0.000 0.325 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.316 0.000 0.316 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.307 0.000 0.307 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

**Year**CO2 Marg.

Emiss. rateNOx Marg.

Emiss. rateCO2 Price

$/ton (1)CO2 Price

$/ton (2)CO2 Price

$/ton (3)CO2 Price

$/ton (4) CO2

reductionCO2 Value

(1) CO2 Value

(2)

Mt/quadkt/quad2007 $2007 $2007 $2007 $ Mt **1972 1973**  **1974 1975**  **1976 1977**  **1978 1979**  **1980 1981**  **1982 1983**  **1984 1985**  **1986 1987**  **1988 1989**  **1990 1991**  **1992 1993**  **1994 1995**  **1996** million 2010$

**1997 1998**  **1999 2000**  **2001 2002**  **2003 2004**  **2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010**  141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40$35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2011** 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90$35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2012** 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40$36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2013** 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80$37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2014** 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30$37.70 $71.20 0.00 0.01 0.05 **2015** 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80$38.40 $72.80 0.00 0.02 0.10 **2016** 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30$39.00 $74.40 0.01 0.03 0.15 **2017** 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80$39.70 $76.00 0.01 0.04 0.18 **2018** 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30$40.40 $77.50 0.01 0.05 0.21 **2019** 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80$41.00 $79.10 0.01 0.05 0.23**2020** 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30$41.70 $80.70 0.01 0.06 0.26

**2021** 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00$42.50 $82.60 0.01 0.06 0.29 **2022** 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60$43.40 $84.60 0.02 0.07 0.31 **2023** 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30$44.20 $86.50 0.01 0.07 0.30 **2024** 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90$45.00 $88.40 0.01 0.06 0.30 **2025** 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60$45.90 $90.40 0.01 0.06 0.29 **2026** 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20$46.70 $92.30 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2027** 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90$47.50 $94.20 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2028** 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50$48.40 $96.20 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2029** 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10$49.20 $98.10 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2030** 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80$50.00$100.00 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2031** 141.73 111.09$10.00 $33.40$50.90$102.00 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2032** 141.73 111.09$10.30 $34.10$51.70$103.90 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2033** 141.73 111.09$10.60 $34.70$52.50$105.80 0.01 0.06 0.28 **2034** 141.73 111.09$10.90 $35.40$53.40$107.80 0.01 0.05 0.27 **2035** 141.73 111.09$11.20 $36.00$54.20$109.70 0.01 0.05 0.27 **2036** 141.73 111.09$11.50 $36.70$55.00$111.60 0.01 0.05 0.27 **2037** 141.73 111.09$11.80 $37.30$55.90$113.60 0.01 0.05 0.27 **2038** 141.73 111.09$12.10 $37.90$56.70$115.50 0.02 0.05 0.27 **2039** 141.73 111.09$12.40 $38.60$57.50$117.40 0.02 0.05 0.27 **2040** 141.73 111.09$12.70 $39.20$58.40$119.30 0.02 0.05 0.26 **2041** 141.73 111.09$13.00 $39.80$59.00$121.00 0.02 0.05 0.26 **2042** 141.73 111.09$13.30 $40.40$59.70$122.70 0.02 0.05 0.26 **2043** 141.73 111.09$13.60 $40.90$60.40$124.40 0.02 0.05 0.26 **2044** 141.73 111.09$13.90 $41.50$61.00$126.10 0.01 0.04 0.23 **2045** 141.73 111.09$14.20 $42.10$61.70$127.80 0.01 0.03 0.20 **2046** 141.73 111.09$14.50 $42.60$62.40$129.40 0.01 0.03 0.17 **2047** 141.73 111.09$14.80 $43.20$63.00$131.10 0.01 0.02 0.14 **2048** 141.73 111.09$15.10 $43.80$63.70$132.80 0.01 0.02 0.12 **2049** 141.73 111.09$15.40 $44.40$64.40$134.50 0.01 0.02 0.09 **2050** 141.73 111.09$15.70 $44.90$65.00$136.20 0.00 0.01 0.07 **2051** 141.73 111.09$16.00 $45.50$65.70$137.90 0.00 0.01 0.04 **2052** 141.73 111.09$16.30 $46.10$66.40$139.70 0.00 0.00 0.03 **2053** 141.73 111.09$16.70 $46.70$67.10$141.50 0.00 0.00 0.01 **2054** 141.73 111.09$17.00 $47.30$67.70$143.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2055** 141.73 111.09$17.30 $47.90$68.40$145.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2056** 141.73 111.09$17.70 $48.50$69.10$147.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2057** 141.73 111.09$18.00 $49.10$69.90$148.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2058** 141.73 111.09$18.40 $49.80$70.60$150.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2059** 141.73 111.09$18.80 $50.40$71.30$152.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2060** 141.73 111.09$19.10 $51.00$72.00$154.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2061** 141.73 111.09$19.50 $51.70$72.80$156.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2062** 141.73 111.09$19.90 $52.40$73.50$158.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2063** 141.73 111.09$20.30 $53.00$74.30$160.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2064** 141.73 111.09$20.70 $53.70$75.00$162.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2065** 141.73 111.09$21.10 $54.40$75.80$164.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2066** 141.73 111.09$21.60 $55.10$76.60$167.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2067** 141.73 111.09$22.00 $55.80$77.40$169.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2068** 141.73 111.09$22.40 $56.50$78.20$171.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2069** 141.73 111.09$22.90 $57.30$79.00$173.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2070** 141.73 111.09$23.30 $58.00$79.80$175.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2071** 141.73 111.09$23.80 $58.70$80.60$177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2072** 141.73 111.09$24.30 $59.50$81.50$180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2073** 141.73 111.09$24.80 $60.30$82.30$182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2074** 141.73 111.09$25.30 $61.00$83.10$184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2075** 141.73 111.09$25.80 $61.80$84.00$187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2076** 141.73 111.09$26.30 $62.60$84.90$189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00**2077** 141.73 111.09$26.80 $63.40$85.70$192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

**2078** 141.73 111.09$27.40 $64.20$86.60$194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2079** 141.73 111.09$27.90 $65.10$87.50$197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2080** 141.73 111.09$28.50 $65.90$88.40$199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2081** 141.73 111.09$29.00 $66.70$89.30$202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2082** 141.73 111.09$29.60 $67.60$90.20$204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2083** 141.73 111.09$30.20 $68.50$91.20$207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2084** 141.73 111.09$30.80 $69.30$92.10$209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2085** 141.73 111.09$31.40 $70.20$93.10$212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2086** 141.73 111.09$32.10 $71.10$94.00$215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2087** 141.73 111.09$32.70 $72.10$95.00$218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2088** 141.73 111.09$33.30 $73.00$96.00$220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2089** 141.73 111.09$34.00 $73.90$96.90$223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2090** 141.73 111.09$34.70 $74.90$97.90$226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2091** 141.73 111.09$35.40 $75.80$99.00$229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2092** 141.73 111.09$36.10 $76.80$100.00$232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 **2093** 141.73 111.09$36.80 $77.80$101.00$235.40 0.00 0.00 0.002.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value (3) CO2 Value

(4) NOx Price

$/kt (1)NOx Price

$/kt (2)NOx Price

$/kt (3)NOx Price

$/kt (4)NOx Price

$/kt (5)NOx Price

$/kt (6) NOx

reductionNOx Value

(1)

kt million 2010$ million 2010$

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.16 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.31 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.45 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.30 0.57 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.35 0.64 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.38 0.70 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.000.42 0.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.48 0.89 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.52 0.96 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.50 0.93 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.51 0.93 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.48 0.88 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.83 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.82 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.82 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.45 0.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.45 0.80 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.45 0.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.44 0.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.44 0.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.39 0.69 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.34 0.60 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.29 0.51 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.25 0.43 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.20 0.35 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00 0.16 0.27 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.20 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.13 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.08 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.003.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value (2) NOx Value

(3) NOx Value

(4) NOx Value

(5) NOx Value

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.020.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00**Price Forecast**

**Price Trends Rescaled**  Year Default Low HighMWO-OnlyAEO Chained Year

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6% 2010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010 2011 0.981 0.986 0.979 0.968 0.989 1.000 2011 2012 0.963 0.971 0.958 0.938 0.978 1.000 2012 2013 0.946 0.958 0.939 0.909 0.964 1.000 2013 2014 0.930 0.945 0.920 0.883 0.949 1.000 2014 2015 0.914 0.933 0.903 0.859 0.932 1.000 2015 2016 0.900 0.921 0.886 0.837 0.916 1.000 2016 2017 0.886 0.910 0.871 0.817 0.899 1.000 2017 2018 0.873 0.900 0.857 0.799 0.883 1.000 2018 2019 0.861 0.890 0.842 0.781 0.866 1.000 2019 2020 0.848 0.880 0.828 0.763 0.848 1.000 2020 2021 0.836 0.870 0.814 0.745 0.829 1.000 2021 2022 0.823 0.860 0.801 0.728 0.810 1.000 2022 2023 0.812 0.850 0.788 0.711 0.791 1.000 2023 2024 0.800 0.841 0.775 0.696 0.772 1.000 2024 2025 0.790 0.832 0.763 0.681 0.754 1.000 2025 2026 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.667 0.736 1.000 2026 2027 0.770 0.816 0.741 0.654 0.719 1.000 2027 2028 0.760 0.808 0.731 0.642 0.701 1.000 2028 2029 0.751 0.800 0.721 0.630 0.684 1.000 2029 2030 0.742 0.793 0.711 0.618 0.667 1.000 2030 2031 0.733 0.785 0.702 0.607 0.651 1.000 2031 2032 0.725 0.778 0.692 0.596 0.634 1.000 2032 2033 0.716 0.771 0.683 0.585 0.619 1.000 2033 2034 0.708 0.764 0.674 0.575 0.604 1.000 2034 2035 0.700 0.757 0.665 0.565 0.589 1.000 2035 2036 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.555 0.575 1.000 2036 2037 0.685 0.745 0.649 0.546 0.561 1.000 2037 2038 0.678 0.739 0.641 0.537 0.547 1.000 2038 2039 0.670 0.733 0.633 0.529 0.534 1.000 2039 2040 0.663 0.727 0.626 0.521 0.521 1.000 2040 2041 0.657 0.721 0.618 0.513 0.508 1.000 2041 2042 0.650 0.715 0.611 0.505 0.496 1.000 2042 2043 0.643 0.709 0.604 0.497 0.484 1.000 2043

**Price Scaling Factors** Low 1.02 High 0.99 MWO-Only 0.95 AEO Chained 1.02 Constant PricesDefault Low HighMWO-OnlyAEO Chained

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6% 1.076 1.058 1.087 1.132 1.054 1.000 1.056 1.043 1.064 1.096 1.043 1.000 1.036 1.028 1.042 1.062 1.031 1.000 1.018 1.014 1.020 1.030 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.983 0.987 0.981 0.973 0.983 1.000 0.968 0.975 0.963 0.948 0.965 1.000 0.953 0.963 0.947 0.925 0.948 1.000 0.939 0.952 0.931 0.904 0.930 1.000 0.926 0.942 0.916 0.884 0.913 1.000 0.912 0.931 0.900 0.864 0.894 1.000 0.899 0.920 0.885 0.844 0.874 1.000 0.886 0.910 0.870 0.824 0.854 1.000 0.873 0.900 0.856 0.806 0.834 1.000 0.861 0.890 0.843 0.788 0.814 1.000 0.849 0.881 0.830 0.771 0.795 1.000 0.838 0.872 0.817 0.756 0.776 1.000 0.828 0.863 0.806 0.741 0.758 1.000 0.818 0.855 0.795 0.727 0.739 1.000 0.808 0.847 0.784 0.714 0.721 1.000 0.798 0.839 0.773 0.700 0.703 1.000 0.789 0.831 0.762 0.687 0.686 1.000 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.675 0.669 1.000 0.770 0.816 0.742 0.662 0.652 1.000 0.761 0.809 0.732 0.651 0.637 1.000 0.753 0.802 0.723 0.639 0.621 1.000 0.745 0.795 0.714 0.629 0.606 1.000 0.737 0.788 0.705 0.619 0.591 1.000 0.729 0.782 0.697 0.609 0.577 1.000 0.721 0.775 0.688 0.599 0.563 1.000 0.714 0.769 0.680 0.590 0.549 1.000 0.706 0.763 0.672 0.580 0.536 1.000 0.699 0.757 0.664 0.571 0.523 1.000 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.563 0.510 1.000 Constant Prices**Housing Projections**

**Source: A nnual Energy**  **Outlook 2010**

**Projected Total Housing Stock (millions) Projected Housing Starts (millions)** 

**Reference High**  **Low Reference**  **High Low** 

1990 93.99 93.99 93.99 1990 1.38 1.38 1.38 1991 94.87 94.87 94.87 1991 1.18 1.18 1.18 1992 95.75 95.75 95.75 1992 1.41 1.41 1.41 1993 96.63 96.63 96.63 1993 1.54 1.54 1.54 1994 97.88 97.88 97.88 1994 1.76 1.76 1.76 1995 99.06 99.06 99.06 1995 1.69 1.69 1.69 1996 100.10 100.10 100.10 1996 1.82 1.82 1.82 1997 101.31 101.31 101.31 1997 1.49 1.49 1.49 1998 102.61 102.61 102.61 1998 1.54 1.54 1.54 1999 103.83 103.83 103.83 1999 1.64 1.64 1.64 2000 105.01 105.01 105.01 2000 1.70 1.70 1.70 2001 106.27 106.27 106.27 2001 1.72 1.72 1.72 2002 107.35 107.35 107.35 2002 1.75 1.75 1.75 2003 108.53 108.53 108.53 2003 1.79 1.79 1.79 2004 109.73 109.73 109.73 2004 1.80 1.80 1.80 2005 111.09 111.09 111.09 2005 2.22 2.22 2.22 2006 112.50 112.50 112.50 2006 1.92 1.92 1.92 2007 112.48 112.48 112.48 2007 1.44 1.44 1.44 2008 113.33 113.33 113.33 2008 0.98 0.98 0.98 2009 114.03 114.03 114.03 2009 0.61 0.61 0.61 2010 115.26 115.26 115.26 2010 0.92 0.92 0.92 2011 116.23 116.48 116.01 2011 1.49 1.73 1.26 2012 117.44 117.97 116.94 2012 1.72 2.01 1.44 2013 118.70 119.54 117.91 2013 1.79 2.10 1.49 2014 119.98 121.15 118.88 2014 1.81 2.14 1.50 2015 121.33 122.86 119.89 2015 1.88 2.25 1.54 2016 122.74 124.66 120.93 2016 1.95 2.34 1.57 2017 124.17 126.47 121.99 2017 1.97 2.36 1.59 2018 125.63 128.32 123.06 2018 2.00 2.41 1.62 2019 127.11 130.20 124.15 2019 2.03 2.44 1.63 2020 128.58 132.09 125.22 2020 2.03 2.46 1.62 2021 129.98 133.91 126.23 2021 1.97 2.41 1.56 2022 131.33 135.70 127.17 2022 1.92 2.38 1.50 2023 132.64 137.47 128.05 2023 1.89 2.36 1.45 2024 133.94 139.23 128.91 2024 1.88 2.36 1.42 2025 135.25 141.02 129.74 2025 1.89 2.40 1.40 2026 136.54 142.83 130.55 2026 1.89 2.43 1.38 2027 137.80 144.62 131.30 2027 1.85 2.41 1.33 2028 139.01 146.36 132.00 2028 1.81 2.37 1.27 2029 140.18 148.07 132.66 2029 1.78 2.35 1.23 2030 141.34 149.78 133.30 2030 1.78 2.35 1.22 2031 142.48 151.46 133.90 2031 1.75 2.32 1.18 2032 143.58 153.08 134.45 2032 1.71 2.27 1.13 2033 144.65 154.67 134.97 2033 1.70 2.25 1.11 2034 145.73 156.24 135.48 2034 1.70 2.24 1.09 2035 146.79 157.81 135.96 2035 1.70 2.24 1.07 2036 147.85 159.36 136.42 2036 1.70 2.24 1.07 2037 148.91 160.92 136.89 2037 1.70 2.24 1.07 2038 149.97 162.47 137.35 2038 1.70 2.24 1.07 2039 151.03 164.03 137.81 2039 1.70 2.24 1.07 2040 152.09 165.58 138.27 2040 1.70 2.24 1.07 2041 153.15 167.14 138.73 2041 1.70 2.24 1.07 2042 154.21 168.69 139.19 2042 1.70 2.24 1.07 2043 155.27 170.25 139.65 2043 1.70 2.24 1.07**Demolitions (Calculated) Reference** **High Low** 

1990

- - - 1991 0.50 0.50 0.50 1992 0.30 0.30 0.30 1993 0.53 0.53 0.53 1994 0.30 0.30 0.30 1995 0.58 0.58 0.58 1996 0.65 0.65 0.65 1997 0.61 0.61 0.61 1998 0.19 0.19 0.19 1999 0.32 0.32 0.32 2000 0.46 0.46 0.46 2001 0.44 0.44 0.44 2002 0.64 0.64 0.64 2003 0.57 0.57 0.57 2004 0.59 0.59 0.59 2005 0.44 0.44 0.44 2006 0.81 0.81 0.81 2007 1.95 1.95 1.95 2008 0.59 0.59 0.59 2009 0.28 0.28 0.28 2010 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63 2011 -0.04 -0.29 0.18 2012 0.28 0.24 0.34 2013 0.46 0.43 0.47 2014 0.51 0.50 0.52 2015 0.46 0.42 0.48 2016 0.46 0.46 0.50 2017 0.52 0.53 0.52 2018 0.52 0.52 0.51 2019 0.52 0.53 0.53 2020 0.56 0.55 0.55 2021 0.63 0.63 0.62 2022 0.62 0.62 0.62 2023 0.60 0.61 0.61 2024 0.59 0.60 0.60 2025 0.58 0.57 0.58 2026 0.60 0.59 0.60 2027 0.63 0.64 0.62 2028 0.65 0.67 0.63 2029 0.64 0.65 0.62 2030 0.61 0.64 0.60 2031 0.64 0.68 0.62 2032 0.66 0.70 0.63 2033 0.64 0.69 0.61 2034 0.62 0.67 0.60 2035 0.63 0.67 0.60 2036 0.64 0.68 0.61 2037 0.64 0.68 0.61 2038 0.64 0.68 0.61 2039 0.64 0.68 0.61 2040 0.64 0.68 0.61 2041 0.64 0.68 0.61 2042 0.64 0.68 0.61 2043 0.64 0.68 0.61**Elec Prices**

**Av erage Energy** 

**Prices (2010 $ / MMBtu) Electricity** 

**($/MMBtu site energy )**  **Ref. High**  **Low** 2007 32.22 32.22 32.22 2008 33.72 33.72 33.72 2009 32.75 32.77 32.77 2010 31.34 31.38 31.35 2011 30.28 30.73 29.98 2012 31.48 32.11 31.03 2013 31.87 32.45 31.21 2014 31.89 32.48 31.22 2015 31.83 32.53 31.08 2016 32.05 32.83 31.18 2017 32.21 32.96 31.11 2018 32.19 33.06 31.04 2019 32.08 33.17 30.82 2020 32.25 33.40 30.93 2021 32.42 33.63 31.01 2022 32.49 33.65 31.08 2023 32.61 33.77 31.16 2024 32.70 34.15 31.42 2025 32.67 34.50 31.74 2026 32.81 34.90 31.70 2027 32.99 35.22 31.57 2028 33.15 35.62 31.62 2029 33.56 36.05 31.70 2030 33.88 36.49 31.65 2031 34.24 36.80 31.75 2032 34.55 36.82 31.98 2033 34.69 36.79 32.12 2034 34.94 37.02 32.28 2035 35.15 37.31 32.41 2036 35.36 37.58 32.51 2037 35.56 37.86 32.62 2038 35.77 38.14 32.72 2039 35.97 38.42 32.82 2040 36.18 38.71 32.92 2041 36.39 38.99 33.02 2042 36.60 39.28 33.13 2043 36.81 39.57 33.23 2044 37.02 39.86 33.33 2045 37.23 40.16 33.44 2046 37.45 40.45 33.54 2047 37.66 40.75 33.65 2048 37.88 41.05 33.75 2049 38.10 41.36 33.86 2050 38.32 41.66 33.96 2051 38.54 41.97 34.07 2052 38.76 42.28 34.18 2053 38.98 42.59 34.28 2054 39.21 42.91 34.39 2055 39.44 43.23 34.50 2056 39.66 43.55 34.60 2057 39.89 43.87 34.71 2058 40.12 44.19 34.82 2059 40.35 44.52 34.93 2060 40.58 44.85 35.04 2061 40.82 45.18 35.15 2062 41.05 45.51 35.262063 41.29 45.85 35.37 2064 41.53 46.19 35.48 2065 41.77 46.53 35.59 2066 42.01 46.87 35.70 2067 42.25 47.22 35.81 2068 42.49 47.57 35.92 2069 42.74 47.92 36.04 2070 42.98 48.28 36.15 2071 43.23 48.63 36.26 2072 43.48 48.99 36.37 2073 43.73 49.35 36.49 Source: AEO 2010 After 2035, the rate of change from 2020-2035 is used.**Heat Rates**

**Marginal Source to Site Conversion Factor**

**Elec** (Btu/kWh) 2005 11500 2006 11500 2007 11200 2008 10250 2009 10000 2010 10000 2011 10000 2012 10000 2013 10000 2014 10000 2015 10000 2016 10000 2017 9700 2018 9000 2019 8300 2020 8088 2021 8088 2022 7949 2023 7200 2024 6966 2025 6500 2026 6309 2027 6309 2028 6309 2029 6309 2030 6309 2031 6309 2032 6309 2033 6309 2034 6309 2035 6309 2036 6309 2037 6309 2038 6309 2039 6309 2040 6309 2041 6309 2042 6309 2043 6309 2044 6309 2045 6309 2046 6309 2047 6309 2048 6309 2049 6309 2050 6309 2051 6309 2052 6309 2053 6309 2054 6309 2055 6309 2056 6309 2057 6309 2058 6309 2059 6309 2060 63092061 6309 2062 6309 2063 6309 2064 6309 2065 6309 2066 6309 2067 6309 2068 6309 2069 6309 2070 6309**Lifetime**

Assumptions Lifetime of Microwaves up to 2009: Average 10.91 alpha 4.75shape beta 10.28scale low value 1 location

1 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 2 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 3 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 4 0.2% 99.7% 99.8% 5 0.8% 98.9% 99.2% 6 2.1% 96.8% 97.9% 7 4.2% 92.5% 95.6% 8 7.4% 85.1% 92.0% 9 11.3% 73.8% 86.7% 10 15.0% 58.8% 79.6% 11 17.2% 41.6% 70.8% 12 16.4% 25.2% 60.5% 13 12.7% 12.4% 49.4% 14 7.7% 4.7% 38.1% 15 3.4% 1.3% 27.6% 16 1.1% 0.2% 18.6% 17 0.2% 0.0% 11.5% 18 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 19 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 20 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

sum: 100%

wt. avg. lifetime = 10.910759 max lifetime = 13 % surviving to next year % surviving % retiring Age