NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS

Research and Development Report June 2001

Community College Transfer

Rates to 4-year Institutions

Using Alternative Definitions

of Transfer

U.S. Department of Education

Office of Educational Research and Improvement NCES 2001–197

Ellen M. Bradburn

National Center for Education Statistics

David G. Hurst

Education Statistics Services Institute

Samuel Peng, Project Officer

National Center for Education Statistics
U.S. Department of Education

Rod Paige

Secretary

National Center for Education Statistics

Gary W. Phillips

Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing,

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May 2001

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Suggested Citation

U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. Community College Transfer Rates

to 4-year Institutions Using Alternative Definitions of Transfer, NCES 2001–197, by Ellen M. Bradburn and

David G. Hurst. Project Officer, Samuel Peng. Washington, DC: 2001.

For ordering information on this report, write:

U.S. Department of Education

ED Pubs

P.O. Box 1398

Jessup, MD 20794–1398

or call toll free 1–877–4ED–Pubs.
iii

FOREWORD

The Research and Development (R&D) series of reports at NCES has been initiated:

1. To share studies and research that are developmental in nature. The results of such studies may be

revised as the work continues and additional data become available.

2. To share the results of studies that are, to some extent, on the “cutting edge” of methodological

developments. Emerging analytical approaches and new computer software development often permit new, and sometimes controversial, analyses to be done. By participating in “frontier research,”

we hope to contribute to the resolution of issues and improved analysis.

3. To participate in discussions of emerging issues of interest to educational researchers, statisticians,

and the federal statistical community in general. Such reports may document workshops and symposia sponsored by NCES that address methodological and analytical issues or may share and discuss

issues regarding NCES practices, procedures, and standards.

The common theme in all three goals is that these reports present results or discussions that do not reach

definitive conclusions at this point in time, either because the data are tentative, the methodology is new and

developing, or the topic is one on which there are divergent views. Therefore, the techniques and inferences

made from the data are tentative and subject to revision. To facilitate the process of closure on the issues, we

invite comment, criticism, and alternatives to what we have done. Such responses should be directed to:

Marilyn McMillen

Chief Statistician

Statistical Standards Program

National Center for Education Statistics

1990 K Street, NW

Washington, DC 20006–5654
iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to thank all those who contributed to the production of this report. Samuel Peng

of NCES provided support and feedback throughout the entire process, and Karol Krotki and Laura Salganik

of the Education Statistics Services Institute (ESSI) also guided the project.

Many other reviewers at NCES and elsewhere influenced the report. Paula Knepper provided thoughtful

technical review, and Bruce Taylor served as the adjudicator. Other reviewers from the Department of Education included Shelley Burns, Dennis Carroll, Drew Malizio, and Audrey Pendleton. Outside reviewers

included David Miller of ESSI, Kent Phillippe of the American Association of Community Colleges, and

Brian Trzebiatowski of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities. We are grateful for the

many improvements suggested by these reviewers.

The work that produced this report was the result of equal effort on the part of the authors. The order of

the authors’ names is alphabetical.
v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

A large proportion of undergraduates attend public 2-year institutions seeking a wide range of services,

from a place to experiment with postsecondary education to a structured vocational certificate or associate’s

degree program (Grubb 1988, 1991). Although the course offerings and degree programs of many community colleges can accommodate diverse student interests and goals, preparing students to transfer to a 4-year

college remains a central characteristic of community colleges (Brint and Karabel 1989). This preparation is

key to the community college’s role in higher education because it affirms the community college’s claim to

a collegiate, academic identity and to a role in broadening access for those historically excluded from a

college education. Moreover, transfer is a component of most community college students’ educational

aspirations (Grubb 1991, 195-96).

Despite, or perhaps because of, the importance of transfer from 2- to 4-year institutions, calculating the

percentage of community college students who transfer has proven to be somewhat problematic. At first

glance, the transfer rate seems relatively unambiguous: it is the number of students who transfer to a 4-year

college divided by the number of potential transfer students. However, the numerator and especially the

denominator can both be defined in a number of different ways, each having a significant impact on the

transfer estimate. The purpose of the present study is to use nationally representative community college

data to examine several ways of defining the population of potential transfer students, the relationship of

these definitions to student background characteristics, and the relationship of each definition to the resulting transfer rate. This report consists of three sections. The first section describes the dataset used in the

analysis and the measurement issues implicated in the study of transfer. The second section presents the

selected indicators of the key concepts in the study and the results of the analysis. The report concludes with

a discussion of the results in the context of other studies of community college students and transfer.

Data and Measurement

Although a considerable amount of research has investigated community college transfer rates, many of

these analyses have used data that are either limited to a cohort of recent high school graduates, such as the

National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), or are not nationally representative. This study

uses the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) 1990 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), a nationally representative sample of all students who enrolled in postsecondary

education for the first time between July 1, 1989, and June 30, 1990. Follow-up interviews were conducted
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

vi

in spring 1992 and 1994. BPS is particularly appropriate for the study of community college students because it is representative of all beginning postsecondary students, not just recent high school graduates.

The approach of this report is similar to that used in analyses of individual community colleges or districts, particularly that of Spicer and Armstrong (1996). Holding the numerator constant, variously restrictive definitions of the denominator are employed based on the different approaches to specifying the transfer

population found in the literature.

This report defines transfer as follows: initial enrollment at a community college followed by subsequent

enrollment at any 4-year institution within the 5-year study period. Potential transfer refers to being eligible

for transfer or “at risk” of transfer. The broadest definition of potential transfer used in this analysis includes

all first-time, beginning community college students, although students only taking courses for which they

receive no credit are excluded from the BPS sample. The pool of potential transfer students is then restricted

using eight additional definitions of the denominator. They are referred to as “increasingly restrictive” because the total proportion of the sample that is included generally decreases, although the more restrictive

groups are not necessarily subsets of the less restrictive groups. These definitions were selected to approximate measures commonly used in previous research, from explicit student goals to behaviors often thought

to indicate intent to transfer or commitment to postsecondary education. They are as follows:

1) Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher;

2) Enrolled in an academic program;

3) Enrolled continuously in 1989–90;

4) Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91;

5) Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours;

6) Indicated that they were taking courses toward a bachelor’s degree in 1989–90;

7) Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward a bachelor’s degree or both, and

8) Pursuing academic major and taking courses toward a bachelor’s degree.

The analysis begins with estimating the percentage of the 1989–90 cohort of community college students

who meet each of these definitions. The relationship of these criteria to various other student characteristics

is then explored. The first issue to be examined is whether the composition of the pool of potential transfer

students varies as the definition becomes more restrictive. Then, consideration is given to whether different

subgroups of students are more or less likely to meet each definition. Finally, a transfer rate is calculated for

each group of potential transfer students, and the relationships of these definitions to transfer are explored.
vii

Results

Overall, 71 percent of beginning community college students responded that they anticipated earning a

bachelor’s degree or higher when asked, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” (figure A). Also, the majority of students were enrolled in an academic program, enrolled continuously in 1989–90, and enrolled during the 1990–91 academic year. Less than half of the students met the

other definitions, with 11 percent of the students both having an academic major and taking courses leading

toward a bachelor’s degree.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Figure A.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, the

percentage of the initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

Percent

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

71

68

63 62

43

36

25

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

viii

Does the composition of the group of potential transfer students change as the definition

becomes more restrictive?

Restricting the group of potential transfer students according to these definitions may alter the composition of the group, since these educational characteristics are themselves associated with other background

variables (Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996). Across increasingly restrictive definitions of

potential transfer, the percentage of the pool that was in the highest socioeconomic status (SES) quartile

increased from 30 percent of all beginning postsecondary students to 51 percent of beginning postsecondary

students with an academic major taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree. Furthermore, none of

the students in this particular sample who met the most restrictive definition of potential transfer were black,

compared to 6 to 10 percent black students in each of the other potential transfer groups.1 In general, restricting the pool of potential transfer students systematically altered the composition of the group to include more traditional students (younger, dependent students who do not work full time).

What percentage of students with different characteristics meets each potential transfer

definition?

In addition to examining how the composition of the population of potential transfer students changed as

the definitions became more restrictive, the report also compares the likelihood of meeting each definition

of potential transfer across various subgroups of students. For example, students 22 years or older were

generally less likely than younger students to meet the various definitions of potential transfer. In general,

the higher the SES, the higher the percentage of students who met the criteria for each specification. Students who reported taking at least 1 credit hour of remedial mathematics instruction during 1989–90 were

generally about as likely to fit each definition as students who did not take any remedial mathematics instruction. Students who were enrolled full time were generally more likely to meet the various specifications

than those who were enrolled less than full time.

Transfer rates for each definition of potential transfer

Figure B shows estimated transfer rates for all community college entrants and for the eight increasingly

restrictive definitions of potential transfer arranged in order. The results show that, in general, the transfer

rate increased for more restrictive definitions. The lowest rate of ever enrolling in a 4-year institution, 25

percent, was found for all beginning community college students, compared to 52 percent for students

meeting the most restrictive definition (both pursuing an academic major during 1989–90 and taking courses

leading toward a bachelor’s degree). That is, the transfer rate for the most restrictive definition was at least

1

This does not necessarily mean, however, that there are no black students in the population of community college students

who would meet this definition.
ix

twice the rate for all students. Furthermore, figure C demonstrates that the percentage of actual transfer

students meeting the criteria for inclusion in the denominator also declined significantly as the definition of

potential transfer became more restrictive. In other words, attempts to include only those students most

likely to transfer actually exclude a sizable proportion of students who transfer anyway, without meeting

those criteria. For example, four out of five actual transfer students did not meet the most restrictive definition considered.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Figure B.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage

who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, for various definitions of potential transfer

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

Percent

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

25

36 36 37 38

43

40

45

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

x

Additional exploratory analyses examined the percentage of 1989–90 community college students who

ever transferred to a 4-year institution by spring 1994 for each potential transfer definition, by selected

student background characteristics. In several cases, relationships of student characteristics to transfer rates

generally persisted even when restricted to students meeting the various potential transfer definitions. For

example, in general, the older the age group, the lower the percentage of students who transferred, regardless of the definition of potential transfer that was used. Also, regardless of the potential transfer definition

used, higher SES was generally associated with a higher transfer rate.

Figure C.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions who

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the percentage who met the various definitions of

potential transfer

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

Percent

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 95

89

84

93

69

55

44

21
xi

These results can be placed in the context of the literature about two questions: what percentage of

students in community colleges have educational expectations that include a bachelor’s degree, and what is

the transfer rate for community college students? This contextual information is not intended to constitute a

statistical comparison across studies. In general, however, BPS estimates of the percentage of beginning

community college students whose expectations included a bachelor’s degree or higher, as well as the percentage of students who transferred to a 4-year institution, are higher than estimates based on other datasets.

Dougherty (1987, 1992), for example, reviewed several studies and concluded that 30 to 40 percent of all

community college entrants aspire to a baccalaureate degree, while the present study found that 71 percent

of community college students in BPS expect to complete a bachelor’s degree or higher. Similarly, while the

overall transfer rate found in this study is comparable to the average estimate of 22 percent found by the

Transfer Assembly project (Cohen and Sanchez 1997), both the numerator and denominator of the Transfer

Assembly project are more restrictive. Although BPS data do not facilitate use of this definition, an approximation of it using BPS data yielded a transfer rate of 33 percent, somewhat higher than that resulting from

the Transfer Assembly project.

However, any comparisons between the estimates presented in this report and those from other studies

must be considered in light of differences in how the overall population of community college students is

defined across studies. For example, BPS excluded students taking courses only for remedial or avocational

purposes without receiving credit, while other estimates may include these students. As a result, the

typical amount of remediation for students in BPS may underestimate, or otherwise differ from, the

amount of remediation found among community college students in general—a factor that might be associated with transfer to a 4-year institution. Furthermore, this report focuses only on students enrolled in

public 2-year colleges; including other less-than-4-year colleges, particularly less-than-2-year institutions, may lower the estimates. In addition, BPS data are restricted to first-time beginning postsecondary

students; colleges conducting their own studies of transfer may include entering students who are not

first-time beginners as defined in the BPS study. Finally, it could also be that student aspirations change

appreciably from one cohort to the next, and that estimates therefore could depend in part on when the

survey was administered.

Conclusion

This examination of alternative ways of defining potential transfer was undertaken in part to inform

research at the design stage. Which definition (or definitions) is (are) most appropriate for addressing a

specific research question? The decision is not straightforward. This report illustrates the trade-off between

restricting the pool of potential transfer students and excluding substantial portions of the initial cohort. For

example, including students who have an academic major and are taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree results in a high transfer rate (52 percent), but no more than about 1 in 10 community college

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

xii

students meets this definition, and it excludes 4 out of 5 transfer students. Restricting the pool to the 70

percent of students who expect to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher yields a transfer rate of 36 percent, but

fully 95 percent of all transfers have this expectation.

Just as any statistic depends on the specific variables used to indicate the underlying concepts, the transfer rate for community college students is sensitive to the specification of potential transfer. The most complete picture is provided by using multiple indicators, but this approach is not always practical. If data

collection costs or other constraints only permit one definition, one strategy is to define the group of potential transfer students broadly enough that it still reflects community college students somewhat generally,

while not being so broad as to include students who never harbor plans to transfer to a 4-year college. The

results of this study present several alternatives with different advantages and disadvantages.

Overall, the results provide national estimates of community college students’ academic expectations

and transfer activity. These estimates refine and update our understanding of students’ intentions and paths

to transfer. Selecting an approach to defining potential transfer is a necessary first step in any effort to

analyze the impact of institution type on persistence and attainment. This report has taken a step back and

analyzed the definition itself by examining several alternative approaches using a complete nationally representative sample. While the results do not demonstrate the superiority of any single definition, they sharpen

one’s appreciation for the consequences of measurement decisions and build a firmer foundation for future

work on this population.
xiii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword.................................................................................................................................................... iii

Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................................... iv

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... v

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ xiv

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... xvi

Introduction................................................................................................................................................. 1

Data Source and Measurement Issues .................................................................................................. 2

Data Source .................................................................................................................................. 2

Measurement Issues ..................................................................................................................... 3

Analysis and Results ................................................................................................................................... 7

Definition of Variables.......................................................................................................................... 7

Results .................................................................................................................................................. 9

Does the composition of the group of potential transfer students change as the

definition becomes more restrictive? ..................................................................................... 11

What percentage of students with different characteristics meets each potential

transfer definition? ................................................................................................................. 16

Transfer rates for each definition of potential transfer .............................................................. 21

Discussion .................................................................................................................................................. 31

Educational Expectations and Potential Transfer ............................................................................... 31

Transfer Estimates .............................................................................................................................. 33

Operationalizing the Transfer Rate Denominator .............................................................................. 36

References.................................................................................................................................................. 39

Appendix A—Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 41

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology ................................................................................... 49

Appendix C—Supplemental and Standard Error Tables...................................................................... 55
xiv

LIST OF TABLES

1 Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginning

postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to various student and

institution characteristics .................................................................................................................... 12

2 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage of initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by various student

and institution characteristics ............................................................................................................. 17

3 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, for various definitions of

potential transfer................................................................................................................................. 23

C1 Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of

1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to

various student and institution characteristics .................................................................................... 56

C2 Standard errors for table 2: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at

public 2-year institutions, percentage of initial cohort meeting each definition of potential

transfer, by various student and institution characteristics ................................................................. 60

C3 Standard errors for table 3: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at

public 2-year institutions, percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994,

for various definitions of potential transfer ........................................................................................ 64

C4 Estimates and standard errors for figure 4: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students

enrolled at public 2-year institutions who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the

percentage who met the various definitions of potential transfer....................................................... 65

C5 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by student characteristics

and for various definitions of potential transfer ................................................................................. 66

C6 Standard errors for table C5: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at

public 2-year institutions, percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by

student characteristics and for various definitions of potential transfer ............................................. 68
xv

C7 Percentage of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions

meeting each definition of potential transfer, by whether they met less restrictive definitions ......... 70

C8 Standard errors for table C7: Percentage of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled

at public 2-year institutions meeting each definition of potential transfer, by whether they met

less restrictive definitions ................................................................................................................... 71

LIST OF TABLES
xvi

LIST OF FIGURES

A Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, the

percentage of the initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer ...................................vii

B Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, for various definitions of

potential transfer.................................................................................................................................. ix

C Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions who

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the percentage who met the various definitions

of potential transfer .............................................................................................................................. x

1 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, the

percentage of the initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer ................................... 10

2 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage of initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by race/ethnicity ............. 22

3 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage of initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, and of those students

meeting the definition, the percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994 .......... 24

4 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions who

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the percentage who met the various definitions

 of potential transfer ........................................................................................................................... 25

5 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by age and for various

definitions of potential transfer .......................................................................................................... 26

6 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by socioeconomic status and

for various definitions of potential transfer ........................................................................................ 27

7 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by first-generation college

status and for various definitions of potential transfer ....................................................................... 28

8 Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions,

percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by gender and for various

definitions of potential transfer .......................................................................................................... 29
1

INTRODUCTION

In fall 1996, 43.5 percent of all first-time, first-year undergraduate students were enrolled in community

colleges2 (Barbett 1998). Some of these students enroll in community colleges expecting to earn a certificate

or an associate’s degree in a vocational area such as data processing, business support, or automotive technology that will have immediate returns in the labor market. Other students enroll with the intention of taking

primarily academic courses and eventually transferring to a 4-year college to earn a bachelor’s degree. Still

others enter community colleges planning to take no more than one or two classes that are of personal or

professional interest. Finally, some students may not have a clearly defined academic or occupational goal

when they enter community college, but are simply “experimenting” with postsecondary education (Grubb

1988, 1991). The relative proportions of these various goals, however, have not been definitively established.

Although the course offerings and degree programs of many community colleges can accommodate

diverse student interests and goals, preparing students to transfer to a 4-year college remains a central characteristic of community colleges (Brint and Karabel 1989). This preparation is key to community colleges’

role in higher education because it affirms community colleges’ claim to a collegiate, academic identity and

to a role in broadening access for those historically excluded from a college education. Moreover, transfer is

a component of most community college students’ educational aspirations (Grubb 1991, 195–96).

Despite, or perhaps because of, the importance of transfer from 2- to 4-year institutions, calculating the

percentage of community college students who transfer has proven to be somewhat problematic. At first

glance, the transfer rate seems relatively unambiguous: it is the number of students who transfer to a 4-year

college divided by the number of potential transfer students. However, the numerator and especially the

denominator can both be defined in a number of different ways, each having a significant impact on the

transfer estimate. Some researchers and practitioners suggest, for example, that the denominator should

consist of all students who enter a community college in a given year, regardless of their initial expectations,

while others argue that the denominator should only include those students who start out planning, expecting, or hoping to transfer—i.e., the pool of “potential transfer students” (Dougherty 1994; Spicer and

Armstrong 1996). If the denominator is restricted to only those community college students with transfer

intentions, how should this group be defined?

The purpose of the present study is to use nationally representative community college data to examine

several ways of defining potential transfer, the relationship of these definitions to student background char2

In this report, the terms “community college” and “public 2-year college” refer to a public institution whose highest program

of study results in an award or degree below the baccalaureate level and is at least 2 years but less than 4 years in duration.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

2

acteristics, and the relationship of each definition to the resulting transfer rate. This report consists of three

sections. The first section describes the dataset used in the analysis and the measurement issues implicated

in the study of transfer. The second section presents selected indicators of the key concepts in the study and

results of the analysis. The report concludes with a discussion of the results in the context of other studies of

community college students and transfer.

Data Source and Measurement Issues

Data Source

Although a considerable amount of research has investigated community college transfer rates, many of

these analyses have used data that are either limited to a cohort of recent high school graduates, such as the

National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), or are not nationally representative. This study

uses the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) 1990–94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), a nationally representative sample of all students who enrolled in postsecondary

education3 for the first time between July 1, 1989, and June 30, 1990. To be eligible, a student must have been

enrolled during the 1989–90 academic year for one or more of the following purposes: taking course(s) for

credit; in a degree or formal award program of at least 3 months’ duration; or in an occupationally or vocationally

specific program of at least 3 months’ duration. Students only taking courses for remedial or avocational

purposes without receiving credit were excluded from the sample (Pratt et al. 1996, 5). Follow-up interviews

were conducted in spring 1992 and 1994.4 The BPS:1990/1994 response rate was 91 percent among those

students known to be eligible for the study, yielding a total sample of 6,617 students who responded to all

three interviews (Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996; Pratt et al. 1996).

BPS is particularly appropriate for the study of community college students because it is representative

of all beginning postsecondary students, not just recent high school graduates. Older, non-traditional beginning postsecondary students and those who may never have completed a high school diploma are more

prevalent in community colleges than 4-year institutions (Kojaku and Nuñez 1998). For example, 26 percent

3

The 1990 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:1990), upon which the BPS:1990/1994 sample is based, was

designed to include students enrolled in all types of postsecondary education. However, service academies; institutions

offering only avocational, recreational, or remedial courses; institutions offering only in-house business courses; those offering only programs of less than 3 months’ duration; and those offering only correspondence courses were excluded (McCormick

1997, 69).

4

A new BPS cohort of 1995–96 beginning students was interviewed in 1996 and re-interviewed in 1998 (BPS:1996/1998).

While this new BPS contains additional survey items concerning students’ educational goals, only data from the first followup interviews were available at the time the current analysis was undertaken (a second follow-up will be administered in

2001). Because the relationship between definitions of potential transfer and the likelihood of transferring are of particular

interest in this analysis, the first BPS, for which five academic years of data are available, was considered a more appropriate

dataset.
3

of beginning community college students are age 24 or over, compared with 5 percent of those entering 4-

year institutions (Kojaku and Nuñez 1998, 9). In addition, the final follow-up of BPS students occurred 5

academic years after most students had first enrolled, allowing sufficient time for many transfers to occur.

BPS also captured all transfers that occurred within this 5-year period, regardless of the control or location

of the receiving institution. Thus, students who made lateral or “downward” transfers to other less-than-4-

year institutions and then transferred to a 4-year college or university are also included in BPS. (About 20

percent of community college beginners first transferred to a less-than-4-year institution; of those, 9 percent

enrolled in a 4-year institution by spring 1994 [McCormick 1997, 32, 41]). In short, BPS is the first study

that provides a nationally representative sample of all entering college students at public 2-year institutions,

while reflecting all of their transfer activity over an extended period of time.

Measurement Issues

As noted above, the primary purpose of this study is to examine alternative ways of defining potential

transfer, or the sub-population of community college students who may harbor some intention of transferring to a 4-year institution. While BPS is a particularly appropriate dataset with which to study educational

expectations and transfer, selecting a set of potential transfer definitions from the wide range of alternatives

that have been proposed in previous research is a challenging task. This section reviews issues that researchers have faced in operationalizing the transfer rate, with an emphasis on the denominator, or the pool of

potential transfer students.

Calculating a transfer rate requires delineating both the population of potential transfer students and

what is considered transfer itself. Although specifying the potential transfer population is particularly problematic and is the primary focus of this report, at least three issues arise when defining what constitutes

“transfer.” The level of the destination institution has already been specified because transfer to 4-year

institutions is of particular interest in the community college literature (Grubb 1991). Second, assuming that

transfer is defined as subsequent enrollment,5 what is the maximum length of time within which a student

can enroll in a 4-year college and still be counted as a transfer student for a given cohort of community

college students? If this period is very short, the transfer estimate may systematically undercount the transfer of students who initially enroll less than full time or who “stop out” for an extended period (see, e.g.,

Gutierrez-Marquez 1994; Kojaku and Nuñez 1998). Even students with transfer intentions at the time of

entry into postsecondary education may not plan to do so immediately following their departure from their

first institution (McCormick 1997; Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). On the other hand, accounting for all

subsequent enrollment would, in essence, require following students until they died, which would be prohibitively expensive and cumbersome.

5

This definition excludes students who are enrolled at two or more institutions simultaneously: about 5 percent of undergraduates did so in 1995–96 (Horn and Berktold 1998, table 2.1).

INTRODUCTION
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

4

Finally, the location and control of the 4-year institution to which a student transfers varies and may be a

basis for defining transfer. While the most reliable data available on a routine basis may be transfers to instate, public institutions (Cohen 1991; Cohen and Sanchez 1997; Palmer and Reish 1991), students who

transfer to private or out-of-state institutions are not captured in this definition of transfer. Studies using

national longitudinal datasets such as High School and Beyond (HS&B), however, typically count enrollment

at any 4-year college or university after leaving a community college as transfer (Lee and Frank 1990;

McCormick 1997).

These questions must be answered in specifying the numerator of the transfer rate. However, it is the

operationalization of the denominator, or the population of potential transfer students, that varies most

widely. Perhaps the most extensively considered issue in defining potential transfer is whether to include all

students or only those with transfer intentions. In a recent study, for example, 38 percent of community

college entrants said transfer to a 4-year institution was their primary reason for enrolling (Berkner, Horn,

and Clune 2000). However, students who indicated another primary reason for enrolling, such as to earn a

degree or certificate, may nevertheless also intend to transfer to a 4-year institution. If one of the roles of

community colleges is to afford all students the opportunity to enter a baccalaureate institution, that preparation might entail raising expectations to a level that would necessitate transfer. The denominator under this

assumption would include all students (Gutierrez-Marquez 1994). On the other hand, some identify this as

an issue of “fairness,” asserting that community colleges should not be held accountable for the lack of

transfer among students who never intended to transfer when they first enrolled in the community college

(Gutierrez-Marquez 1994; McCormick 1997). The denominator in this case would be more restrictive.

When restrictions are imposed, one of two broad approaches is usually used: one focusing on what

students say they intend to do, the other relying on observable behaviors. Both approaches have limitations.

Even when students are asked directly whether or not they intend to transfer, some may say they intend to

transfer even when they do not (for example, believing that institutional and financial aid practices reward

transfer intentions [Spicer and Armstrong 1996] or perceiving “bachelor’s degree” to be the most socially

desirable response). If so, the measure could inadvertently underestimate transfer rates by overestimating

the number of students in the denominator. When behavioral indicators, such as completion of a minimum

number of credits, are used, they too may be thought to reflect explicit or nascent student intent to transfer,

whether as a cause or a result of students’ specific behaviors (Dougherty 1992; Spicer and Armstrong 1996).

Yet students may take such actions without harboring intentions to transfer at any time. Thus, some measurement error may occur with either type of criterion.

Self-reported student academic intent can be very difficult to assess, particularly when making specific

institutional comparisons, because not all colleges ask students their intentions, those that do use varying

question wording that can affect responses, and students’ intentions may change over time (Laanan and

Sanchez 1996). Still, both institution-based studies (Gutierrez-Marquez 1994) and national surveys

(McCormick 1997) have asked students about their future plans. Some have specifically asked community
5

college students at time of entry, after a period of enrollment, or both times whether they intend to transfer

(Gutierrez-Marquez 1994; Spicer and Armstrong 1996; Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000), while others have

broadly asked about educational expectations or aspirations (McCormick 1997). A previous NCES report,

for example, restricted the definition of potential transfer students to those who said that the courses they

were currently enrolled in (during their first term in postsecondary education) were leading to a bachelor’s

degree or higher, inferring intent to transfer on that basis (McCormick 1997).

Cohen (1991) suggests that potential transfer definitions should include only those students who have

completed a minimum number of credits, thus having “been enrolled long enough for the college staff to have

had a chance to work with them” (p. 3). Thus, his ongoing Transfer Assembly project, designed to produce

consistent transfer data for community colleges across the country, aims to exclude students who simply “drop

in” to postsecondary education—sampling one or two courses without giving any indications that they are

directed toward completion of a specific credential goal. The Transfer Assembly definition, adopted by many

researchers because it is widely collected by institutions, includes all students with no previous postsecondary

experience6 who complete a minimum of 12 credits within 4 years (Cohen 1991; Cohen and Sanchez 1997;

Gutierrez-Marquez 1994; Laanan and Sanchez 1996; Spicer and Armstrong 1996). Variations on this behavioral

definition look at completion of fewer or more credits in more or less time, or consider semesters completed

rather than credits earned. Such measures, which necessarily limit the amount of time that may elapse before

data are collected, exclude students who take longer than the specified time period to meet the potential transfer criteria. Furthermore, these measures also exclude students who transfer before meeting the criteria.

Some studies have limited potential transfer students to those pursuing a specific credential objective at

the community college level. Cohen and Sanchez (1997) explain that some of the programs that students

might enroll in are more focused toward or compatible with transfer than others. To the extent that students

enroll in these programs because they plan to transfer, or develop transfer goals after enrolling in them,

credential objectives may reflect transfer intentions. Along these lines, both students’ reported current degree objectives (e.g., completion of a certificate or an associate’s degree [Gutierrez-Marquez 1994]) and

their actual enrollment in certificate or degree programs (Laanan and Sanchez 1996; Spicer and Armstrong

1996) have been employed. Similarly, enrollment in an academic rather than a vocational program of study

may be more compatible with subsequent transfer to a 4-year institution (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000).

Of course, students who are enrolled with no plans for degree completion may also tend to be enrolled in

academic rather than vocational courses.

6

Many studies have attempted to filter out any effect of previous postsecondary experience by including only those students

who are first-time postsecondary or first-time college students (Cohen 1991; Cohen and Sanchez 1997; Gutierrez-Marquez

1994; Laanan and Sanchez 1996; Spicer and Armstrong 1996; McCormick 1997) or students who enrolled in a given term

who were not also enrolled at 4-year institutions and did not already have bachelor’s degrees (Laanan and Sanchez 1996).

Studies that rely on samples of recent high school graduates (Lee and Frank 1990; Grubb 1991) also, in effect, make this

restriction.

INTRODUCTION
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

6

Finally, recent federal legislation regarding the Student Right-to-Know Act requires schools to report

information about the rate of completion and transfer (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office

1999). Schools must make available information about the transfer rate of degree-seeking students who

attempt full-time enrollment in their first term (Spicer and Armstrong 1996). Unlike most of the definitions

of transfer used in the literature, however, only students who enroll in a 4-year institution and do not first

complete a certificate or an associate’s degree are counted as transfers.

This section summarized some of the measurement concerns that arise when calculating a transfer rate

and some of the approaches that researchers have used to define potential transfer. The following section

outlines this report’s approach to the measurement of the transfer rate, first defining “transfer” and then

delineating the several alternative definitions of “potential transfer” used in the analysis. The results of

applying these definitions to the BPS longitudinal dataset are then detailed.
7

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

 The purpose of this analysis is to use data that are nationally representative of the community college

population to examine a number of alternative definitions of potential transfer. The approach of this report is

similar to that used in analyses of individual community colleges or districts, particularly that of Spicer and

Armstrong (1996). Holding the numerator constant, variously restrictive definitions of the denominator are

employed based on the different approaches to specifying the potential transfer population found in the

literature. The next set of results examines how the composition of the student population captured by each

definition of potential transfer changes as the definitions become more restrictive, and the relationship of

each definition to the resulting transfer rate.

Definition of Variables

The operationalization of transfer (the numerator) used in this report is as follows: initial enrollment at a

community college followed by subsequent enrollment at any 4-year institution7 within the 5-year study

period. To be counted as a transfer student, the student must have ceased enrollment at the community

college; concurrent enrollment at a community college and a 4-year institution is not considered transfer in

this study. Activity after enrollment at a 4-year institution is not factored into this definition: if a community

college student transferred to a 4-year institution and then re-enrolled at the first institution, the student is

still counted as having transferred.8 Also, following McCormick’s (1997) earlier analysis of transfer using

BPS:1990/1994, this definition of transfer is based on enrollment only, regardless of whether or not a student transfers credits. About 89 percent of students who attended only two institutions over the course of the

study9 reported transferring credits between the community college where they initially enrolled and the 4-

year institution at which they later enrolled (McCormick 1997, 37). Both the percentage of beginning community college students who ever enrolled in a 4-year institution (including students who first transferred to

another less-than-4-year institution before transferring to a 4-year institution) and the percentage who first

transferred to a 4-year institution after community college enrollment (including only students whose first

transfer was to a 4-year institution) are presented.

7

Defined as a public, private not-for-profit, or private for-profit institution that offers 4-year bachelor’s degrees. These institutions may or may not also offer master’s, doctoral, or first-professional degrees (McCormick 1997, 61).

8

That is, students who enroll at 4-year institutions with only a short-term purpose, such as to pick up a course not offered at their

current institution, are treated here as transfer students. However, since simultaneous enrollment is not counted as transfer, this

group may be small. This definition of transfer is consistent with that used in previous NCES reports (McCormick 1997).

9

These students represent 73 percent of all community college students who transferred to a 4-year institution (McCormick

1997, 37). Credit estimates for students attending more than two institutions are not readily available from BPS:1990/1994.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

8

Potential transfer refers to being eligible for transfer or “at risk” of transfer, and is specified in several

ways in this analysis. The broadest definition of potential transfer used in this analysis includes all firsttime, beginning community college students, although students only taking courses for which they receive

no credit are excluded from the BPS sample. The pool of potential transfer students is then restricted using

the eight additional definitions of the denominator described below. These definitions were selected to

reflect the widest possible range of measures detailed above, from explicit student goals to behaviors often

thought to indicate intent to transfer or commitment to postsecondary education. For more information

about the variables used in these definitions, as well as other variables used in the analysis, see the glossary

in appendix A.

1) Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher. This is the primary measure of self-reported academic expectations used in this analysis and is based on a student’s response to the question, “What

is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” The question was asked of students

during the base year interview in 1989–90.

2) Enrolled in an academic program. This definition is based on student reports of whether their program of study during the 1989–90 year was primarily academic or vocational.

3) Enrolled continuously in 1989–90. Students were considered continuously enrolled if they did not

have any period of more than 4 months of nonenrollment during 1989–90. This definition and the one

that follows are each intended to roughly approximate the Transfer Assembly approach of looking at

only those students who earn 12 credit units (or about 4 classes) over 4 years.10

4) Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91. Students indicating enrollment at any postsecondary

institution during academic year 1990–91 are included.

5) Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours. This definition refers to the student’s 1989–90 sampled term

(first term of postsecondary enrollment). Although most studies of transfer do not include full-time

enrollment as a definition of the pool of potential transfers, this definition approximates the denominator used in the Graduation Rate Survey (GRS) of the NCES Integrated Postsecondary Education

Data System (IPEDS). The GRS is designed to help institutions meet the reporting requirements of

the Student Right-To-Know legislation.11

6) Taking courses toward bachelor’s degree. This definition is more narrowly focused than the general

educational expectations in definition (1) because it refers to the courses the students were specifically enrolled in during the 1989–90 term. Even though students are enrolled at 2-year institutions,

those who plan to transfer in the short term might indicate that they are currently working on a

10The Transfer Assembly definition cannot readily be used with BPS data. Although this definition and the next are intended

to approximate the Transfer Assembly approach, a student could conceivably take just two courses over a 1- or 2-year period

and still meet either of these criteria. Therefore, these definitions are likely to be somewhat less restrictive than the Transfer

Assembly model.

11However, unlike the current study, the definition of transfer used in GRS includes only those students who have not completed a certificate, degree, or transfer-preparatory program.
9

bachelor’s degree. However, in systems where students are encouraged to complete an associate’s

degree before transfer, students might indicate that they are working on the associate’s degree even

if they have transfer intentions (McCormick 1997). Such students may, for example, be enrolled in

community colleges that have clear articulation agreements with 4-year institutions in the same

system.12

7) Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward bachelor’s degree or both. This definition of

potential transfer excludes those students pursuing a vocational major and taking courses toward an

associate’s degree, as well as those working on a credential below the associate’s degree.

8) Pursuing academic major and taking courses toward bachelor’s degree. While definition (7) includes students meeting either of these criteria, this highly restrictive definition requires students

to meet both. Although it also excludes those students with a vocational focus, this specification

serves as an attempt to exclude those students who may only be experimenting with postsecondary

education.

The analysis begins with estimating the percentage of the 1989–90 cohort of community college students

who meet each of these definitions of potential transfer. The relationship of these criteria to various other

student characteristics is then explored. First, the degree to which the composition of the pool of potential

transfer students varies as the definition becomes more restrictive is examined. Then, consideration is given

to whether different subgroups of students are more or less likely to meet each definition. Finally, a transfer

rate is calculated for each group of potential transfer students. The following section describes the results of

this analysis.

Results

Figure 1 presents the percentage of the 1989–90 community college cohort meeting each definition of

potential transfer described above. Overall, 71 percent of beginning community college students responded

that they anticipated earning a bachelor’s degree or higher when asked, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” Also, the majority of students were enrolled in an academic program,

enrolled continuously in 1989–90, and enrolled during the 1990–91 academic year. Less than half of the

students met the other definitions, with 11 percent of the students both having an academic major and taking

courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree.

Throughout the remainder of the report, the definitions of potential transfer are ordered according to the

percentage of the initial cohort meeting each definition. They are referred to as “increasingly restrictive”

12An unknown proportion of students, moreover, may misunderstand the question. As shown below, however, students in this

category do have a higher than average rate of transfer to 4-year institutions.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

10

because the total proportion of the cohort that is included generally decreases, although the more restrictive

groups are not necessarily subsets of the less restrictive groups. Generally, about 70 percent or more of

students meeting the criteria for a given definition of potential transfer also met the less restrictive definitions. For example, 82 percent of students enrolled in an academic program also expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher (see table C7 in appendix C). Among those enrolled for 12 or more credit hours,

however, about half (52 percent) indicated that they were pursuing an academic major or taking courses

toward a bachelor’s degree or both, while 45 percent of students indicating that they were taking courses

toward a bachelor’s degree were also enrolled for 12 or more credit hours.

Figure 1.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, the

percentage of the initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer

Percent

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

71

68

63 63

43

36

26

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
11

Does the composition of the group of potential transfer students change as the definition

becomes more restrictive?

Restricting the group of potential transfer students according to these definitions may alter the composition of the group, since these educational characteristics are themselves associated with other background

variables (Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996). Table 1 shows the percentage distributions of

all beginning community college students and students meeting each definition of potential transfer according to several student characteristics. Definitions of potential transfer are ordered by the proportion of the

initial student cohort included in that definition (see figure 1). Caution should be exercised in interpreting

this table, as many of the percentages shown are based on small sample sizes, which produce rather inefficient estimates. Still, some relationships are observed in this table.

In particular, the increasing restriction of the definition of potential transfer was associated with several

of the characteristics considered. As the definition of potential transfer became more restrictive, the percentage of the pool that was in the highest socioeconomic status (SES) quartile increased from 30 percent of all

beginning postsecondary students to 51 percent of beginning postsecondary students with an academic

major taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree. The proportion of students meeting each definition

who were in the lowest SES quartile decreased from 19 to 8 percent of potential transfer students. Furthermore, in this sample, none of the students meeting the most restrictive definition of potential transfer were

black, compared to 6 to 10 percent black students in each of the other potential transfer groups.13

Across increasingly restrictive definitions of potential transfer, the proportion of the pool that was age 18

or younger increased and the proportion that was age 22 or older decreased. Other relationships are consistent

with this pattern: the proportion of students who were dependent (who are likely to be younger students;

[Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996]) also increased, from 65 percent of all students to 88

percent of those in the most restrictive pool of potential transfer students. In general, the restricted groups of

potential transfer students had higher proportions of dependent students than the sample overall. On the other

hand, the proportion delaying postsecondary enrollment more than a year after high school (who are likely to

be older students; [Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996]) decreased with increasing restriction

of the sample. The restricted pools of potential transfers generally had lower proportions of students who

delayed enrollment compared to the entire cohort.14 The percentage of students working full time (35 or more

13This does not necessarily mean, however, that there are no black students in the population of community college students

who would meet this definition. One possible explanation for this finding is that black students may be more likely than white

or Hispanic students to indicate that they are pursuing an academic major and taking courses leading toward an associate’s

degree (rather than a bachelor’s), in which case they would not be included in this most restrictive definition. Students

pursing a vocational major and taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree are also excluded from this definition.

14Although the difference in this percentage between the total cohort and the most restrictive definition appears large, the

latter group is small and has a large standard error, so the difference is not statistically significant.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
12

Table 1.—Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students e

institutions according to various student and institution characteristics

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10

Age as of 12/31/89

18 or below 43.9 50.9 53.6 52.8 53.3 58.9 61.9 519 through 21 28.9 30.2 28.9 25.9 26.2 28.5 26.0 222 and above 27.1 18.9 17.6 21.2 20.5 12.6 12.1 1

22 through 24 5.9 5.4 4.1 4.9 5.4 3.0 2.5 25 through 34 12.1 8.0 8.2 9.9 9.6 6.4 6.4 35 through 44 6.2 4.7 4.0 5.1 4.1 2.7 2.8 45 or above 2.9 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.4 

Socioeconomic status

Lowest quartile 18.6 13.5 11.2 14.0 15.1 11.3 13.8 1Lower middle 20.8 18.6 18.5 17.1 16.9 13.8 10.5 1Upper middle 30.3 31.4 31.5 32.3 32.0 31.5 35.1 2Highest quartile 30.3 36.6 38.8 36.7 36.0 43.5 40.6 4

First generation college status

First generation 50.5 43.0 43.3 43.5 46.6 41.8 43.8 3Not first generation 49.5 57.0 56.7 56.5 53.4 58.2 56.2 6

Gender

Male 49.0 49.8 50.1 44.8 48.0 54.3 51.0 5Female 51.0 50.3 49.9 55.2 52.0 45.7 49.0 4

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 75.9 73.7 76.5 77.3 75.0 71.6 75.2 6Black, non-Hispanic 8.5 9.7 7.3 6.5 6.5 8.9 7.4 Hispanic 11.1 11.7 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.3 11.8 1Asian/Pacific Islander 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.8 5.9 5.1 American Indian/

Alaskan Native 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.4 
13

Table 1.—Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students e

institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Region of institution

Northeast 21.2 21.4 20.7 18.2 20.3 19.8 24.5 1

New England 4.8 3.7 4.3 3.3 3.6 2.4 5.1 Mid East 16.4 17.7 16.4 14.9 16.7 17.4 19.4 1

Midwest 21.3 20.0 19.8 21.8 21.0 20.5 20.5 2

Great Lakes 14.7 13.4 14.5 15.6 14.4 14.2 15.3 1Plains 6.7 6.6 5.3 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.2 

South 29.6 29.6 28.6 30.4 30.2 25.0 29.6 2

Southeast 21.4 21.1 21.8 22.6 20.8 19.5 20.0 1Southwest 8.2 8.5 6.9 7.8 9.4 5.5 9.6 

West 27.9 29.0 30.9 29.6 28.5 34.7 25.4 3

Rocky Mountains 3.0 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.4 2.5 Far West 24.9 26.7 28.0 26.3 25.5 31.3 22.9 3

Self-rated academic ability

Above average 24.4 28.3 28.7 28.5 30.2 29.2 30.2 2Average 72.9 69.5 68.8 68.9 67.2 68.4 68.0 6Below average 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.8 

Self-rated mathematical ability

Above average 22.7 25.9 25.7 25.9 24.6 28.6 28.3 3Average 60.0 54.3 54.6 56.0 58.5 49.9 55.8 4Below average 17.3 19.9 19.7 18.1 16.9 21.5 15.9 2

Took remedial math 1989–90

No 88.5 86.9 87.5 88.2 87.5 82.9 89.2 8Yes 11.4 13.1 12.5 11.8 12.4 17.1 10.9 1

Delayed enrollment after high school

No 56.0 64.5 66.4 66.5 66.0 72.7 74.2 7Yes 44.0 35.5 33.6 33.5 34.0 27.3 25.8 2
14

Table 1.—Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students e

institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Attendance intensity

Full time 48.5 54.9 54.3 61.6 56.1 56.4 98.3 5Less than full time 51.5 45.1 45.7 38.4 43.9 43.6 1.7 4

Campus participation index

2 or below 37.0 30.2 30.7 30.5 29.7 24.0 23.3 23-4 33.8 35.5 36.6 35.6 38.0 38.7 39.8 35-6 19.3 23.3 22.2 21.1 21.9 28.0 22.4 27 or above 9.8 11.0 10.4 12.8 10.5 9.3 14.5 

Single parent

No 93.3 95.8 94.6 95.5 95.2 97.5 95.5 9Yes 6.7 4.2 5.4 4.5 4.8 2.5 4.5 

Dependency status

Dependent 65.4 74.6 76.1 71.8 73.8 81.1 83.3 8Independent 34.6 25.4 23.9 28.1 26.2 18.9 16.7 1

Hours worked per week

Fewer than 35 67.7 72.2 75.4 75.2 73.8 79.1 86.9 735 or more 32.3 27.8 24.6 24.8 26.1 20.9 13.1 2

Received financial aid

No 72.2 73.0 75.2 68.4 70.6 74.6 60.7 7Yes 27.8 26.9 24.8 31.6 29.4 25.4 39.3 2
15

Table 1.—Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students e

institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Ratio of aid to price*

No aid 71.9 73.0 75.1 68.2 70.6 75.0 60.8 71-33 percent 15.3 13.7 13.8 17.0 16.4 12.4 20.8 134-67 percent 6.3 6.9 5.9 7.6 6.5 7.2 8.6 68-100 percent 6.5 6.4 5.2 7.2 6.6 5.4 9.8 

* Price adjusted for attendance intensity. See the glossary (appendix A) for details.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment). Percentage dis100.0 due to rounding.SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students LongitudinaData Analysis System.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

16

hours a week) was also higher the more inclusive the definition of potential transfer. Also, the percentage of

potential transfers in the West, particularly the Far West, was higher the more restrictive the definition.

Students were asked to compare their ability in several areas to the average person of their age. The

percentage of potential transfer students who rate themselves as having “above average” academic ability

increased as the definitions became more restrictive, comprising 24 percent of all students but 32 percent of

students working toward a bachelor’s degree in an academic major. This pattern was also found for selfratings of mathematical ability compared to others. Students meeting increasingly restrictive definitions of

potential transfer were also less likely to score low (2 or less out of 9) on an index of participation in student

life (including participation in school-sponsored extracurricular activities, interaction with other students

and faculty, and the like).

In sum, this table suggests that restricting the pool of potential transfer students not only changes the

composition of the student pool, but alters it systematically toward greater proportions of higher SES students and more traditional students (younger, dependent students who do not work full time).

What percentage of students with different characteristics meet each potential transfer

definition?

The previous section examined how the composition of the population of potential transfer students

changed as the definitions became more restrictive. This section takes another approach to exploring the

relationship between potential transfer and other student characteristics, comparing the likelihood of meeting each definition of transfer across various subgroups of students (table 2). In general, students age 22 or

older were less likely than younger students to meet the various definitions of potential transfer. For example, about 50 percent of students age 22 or older expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to

75 percent of students ages 19 to 21 and 81 percent of students age 18 or younger. Likewise, 11 percent of

students age 22 or older indicated that they were taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree in 1989–

90, compared to 26 percent of students ages 19 through 21 and 33 percent of students age 18 or below.

Generally, the higher the SES, the higher the percentage of students who met the definitions of potential

transfer. For instance, 16 percent of students from the lowest SES quartile indicated that they were taking

courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree, compared to 40 percent of students from the highest SES quartile. First-generation students, defined as those who reported that their parents had no more than a high

school education, were less likely to meet each definition of potential transfer than those who were not firstgeneration students. For example, 62 percent of first-generation students expected to complete a bachelor’s

degree or higher, compared to 81 percent of those who were not first-generation students.

While the bachelor’s degree expectations of men and women were about the same, men were less likely

to have been enrolled continuously during 1989–90, but more likely to indicate that they were working
17

Table 2.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of initial coho

of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Total 71.0 67.7 63.2 62.5 43.2 36.1 

Age as of 12/31/89

18 or below 80.7 76.8 72.9 75.8 55.1 50.7 19 through 21 74.9 71.5 61.1 56.6 43.9 31.9 22 or above 50.5 46.8 48.9 47.2 21.1 16.5 

22 through 24 63.1 54.1 48.6 56.9 23.9 15.9 25 through 34 48.2 47.0 52.5 49.7 22.7 19.2 35 through 44 51.7 45.6 50.9 41.3 20.5 16.3 45 or above —— ————

Socioeconomic status

Lowest quartile 53.2 45.3 51.1 50.8 28.1 27.9 Lower middle 64.2 61.1 51.8 50.8 29.2 18.2 Upper middle 73.6 68.6 66.1 66.1 44.3 41.3 Highest quartile 83.3 83.1 74.6 74.1 59.4 48.0 

First-generation college status

First generation 62.0 60.7 56.5 59.2 37.7 33.0 Not first generation 81.0 77.7 71.2 69.0 51.3 42.5 

Gender

Male 71.9 68.6 57.9 61.2 46.7 37.8 Female 70.1 66.9 68.3 63.7 39.6 34.5 

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 69.0 68.2 63.9 61.7 40.5 36.0 Black, non-Hispanic 81.5 62.0 48.2 47.8 45.4 31.1 Hispanic 75.0 64.7 65.6 72.9 48.7 37.0 Asian/Pacific Islander ——————American Indian/ Alaskan Native ——————
18

Table 2.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of initial coho

of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Region of institution

Northeast 68.6 64.5 54.3 60.1 38.0 40.9 

New England 53.8 — — 47.7 — 37.2 

Mid East 72.8 64.9 57.2 63.7 43.0 42.0 

Midwest 67.4 63.6 64.9 61.5 41.4 34.2 

Great Lakes 66.8 65.7 64.6 61.6 41.6 36.9 Plains 68.7 58.5 65.6 61.4 41.0 28.3 

South 70.8 68.0 65.4 63.6 38.4 37.3 

Southeast 69.5 71.5 66.0 60.7 41.9 35.9 Southwest 74.4 58.8 63.6 71.3 29.5 40.8 

West 76.4 73.5 66.5 63.9 53.9 32.6 

Rocky Mountains ——————Far West 78.1 74.5 65.7 63.9 54.6 32.8 

Self-rated academic ability

Above average 78.7 74.5 71.8 77.5 50.8 44.1 Average 69.2 65.2 60.0 57.8 40.5 34.1 Below average ——————

Self-rated mathematical ability

Above average 77.6 72.7 70.7 67.8 52.8 44.3 Average 66.1 62.6 59.6 61.1 35.9 34.1 Below average 80.3 77.4 65.4 61.1 54.5 33.0 

Took remedial math in 1989–90

No 70.1 66.8 63.4 61.3 40.5 36.7 Yes 79.7 72.6 64.9 67.3 60.0 33.8 

Delayed enrollment after high school

No 80.4 76.9 72.7 73.6 53.4 47.5 Yes 58.6 54.9 50.1 48.3 28.6 21.4 
19

Table 2.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of initial coho

of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Attendance intensity

Full time 78.6 72.8 78.8 72.3 47.7 74.3 Less than full time 63.7 62.6 48.3 53.3 37.5 1.2 

Campus participation index

2 or below 59.4 61.0 52.5 51.9 31.1 23.3 3–4 75.4 69.8 66.3 72.6 46.5 42.4 5–6 82.1 75.8 68.8 73.3 60.4 42.4 7 or above 79.0 71.3 80.7 68.9 40.4 54.2 

Single parent

No 73.0 68.5 64.5 63.6 44.7 37.2 Yes 42.6 58.4 43.9 44.9 17.9 24.4 

Dependency status

Dependent 80.5 76.0 68.7 70.5 51.8 45.6 Independent 52.8 50.3 52.4 47.3 25.2 17.7 

Hours worked per week

Fewer than 35 75.7 72.4 70.0 68.2 49.1 46.1 35 or more 61.3 56.5 48.8 50.5 29.6 14.9 

Received financial aid

No 72.0 70.7 60.0 61.1 45.2 30.3 Yes 68.6 60.2 71.5 66.1 38.1 51.1 
20

Table 2.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of initial coho

of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Ratio of aid to price*

No aid 72.7 71.0 59.9 61.6 45.7 30.8 1–33 percent 62.7 58.6 68.1 67.4 33.5 49.1 

34–67 percent 79.0 68.7 76.9 64.5 52.0 50.2 

68–100 percent 72.1 56.9 74.3 63.5 34.0 57.0 

— Too few cases for a reliable estimate.*Price adjusted for attendance intensity. See the glossary (appendix A) for details.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.
21

toward a bachelor’s degree. Men and women were equally likely to meet the most restrictive definition of

potential transfer.

Hispanic students were about as likely as other students to indicate that they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher, but were more likely than black students to have enrolled anytime during academic year 1990–91 (figure 2). White students and Hispanic students were more likely than black students to meet the most restrictive definition of transfer: having an academic major and taking courses

toward a bachelor’s degree. Students attending community colleges in the West were more likely than

students attending schools in other regions of the country to have academic majors and be taking courses

leading toward a bachelor’s degree (the most restrictive definition of potential transfers), but were no

more likely to indicate that they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher (the least restrictive

definition).

While students who rated themselves above average in mathematical ability and those who rated themselves below average were both more likely to indicate that they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or

higher than students who rated themselves average, there were few differences across self-reported ability

levels in the other definitions of potential transfer. Students who reported taking at least 1 credit hour of

remedial mathematics instruction during 1989–90 were generally about as likely to meet each of the potential transfer definitions as students who did not take any remedial mathematics instruction. In general, students who were enrolled full time were more likely to meet the various potential transfer definitions than

those who were enrolled less than full time.

In general, students who reported working 35 or more hours per week were less likely than students

working fewer hours to meet the definitions of potential transfer. For example, 49 percent of students working 35 or more hours per week were enrolled continuously in 1989–90, compared to 70 percent of those who

worked fewer than 35 hours per week. Students who did not receive financial aid were about as likely as

students who did receive financial aid to expect to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher and to be enrolled

anytime during academic year 1990–91. Students who did not receive financial aid, however, were less

likely to be enrolled continuously in 1989–90 and less likely to be enrolled for 12 or more credit hours in the

1989–90 sampled term than were students who received financial aid.

Transfer rates for each definition of potential transfer

Estimated transfer rates for the nine definitions of potential transfer among 1989–90 beginning community college students are shown in table 3. Table 3 also shows the transfer rate of community college students

that did not meet a given definition of potential transfer. Rates of transfer to 4-year institutions are shown

both for first transfer—the first enrollment following termination of enrollment at a community college—

and for whether the students had ever enrolled at a 4-year institution by 1994. The results show that, in

general, the transfer rate increased across increasingly restrictive definitions. The lowest rate of ever enrollANALYSIS AND RESULTS
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

22

ing in a 4-year institution, 25 percent, was found for all beginning community college students, compared to

52 percent among students meeting the most restrictive definition. The proportions of students first transferring to 4-year institutions were similar for each definition, ranging from 22 to 51 percent.15 For each

definition, the transfer rate for students meeting the definition was higher than the transfer rate for students

not meeting the definition.

15The estimates of the proportions ever attending 4-year institutions appear higher by a few percentage points for each category,

due to the fact that the numerator is more inclusive while the denominator stays the same. The differences in rates between the

two estimates are not statistically significant. Results below focus on the rate of ever enrolling in a 4-year institution.

Figure 2.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by race/ethnicity

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69

82

75

68

62

65 64

48

65

62

48

73

41

45

49

36

31

37

24

19

33

10

0

21

White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
23

Table 3.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage who

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, for various definitions of potential transfer

First transferred Ever transferred

Potential transfer definition to 4-year1 to 4-year2

All students 22.4 25.4

Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher 31.8 35.7

Students not meeting this definition 3.4 4.7

Enrolled in an academic program 32.9 35.7

Students not meeting this definition 8.6 9.6

Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 33.3 36.6

Students not meeting this definition 9.6 11.6

Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 33.2 37.7

Students not meeting this definition 4.2 4.9

Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward bachelor’s or both 39.9 43.0

Students not meeting this definition 13.3 15.0

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours 36.6 39.6

Students not meeting this definition 15.2 18.2

Taking courses toward bachelor’s 38.7 44.8

Students not meeting this definition 17.9 19.9

Pursuing academic major and taking courses toward bachelor’s 50.7 52.3

Students not meeting this definition 21.8 24.1

1

Includes only students whose first transfer from a community college was to a 4-year institution.

2

Includes students who first transferred to another less-than-4-year institution before transferring to a 4-year institution.

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

Figure 3 displays two sets of estimates. For each potential transfer definition, the figure shows the percentage of the initial cohort meeting that definition and the rate of transfer to 4-year institutions among

students meeting that definition. For example, 63 percent of the initial cohort enrolled continuously during

their first year of postsecondary education in 1989–90, and of these students, 37 percent transferred. Figure

4 presents another statistic relevant to the evaluation of these definitions: the percentage of actual transfer

students meeting each definition. For example, among 1989–90 community college students who had transferred to a 4-year institution by spring 1994, 44 percent indicated that the courses they were taking were

leading toward a bachelor’s degree.

When considered together, two facts are evident in figures 3 and 4. First, as suggested earlier, the transfer

rate generally increased with the increasing restriction of the group of potential transfer students (figure 3).

In fact, the transfer rate for the most restrictive definition was at least twice the rate for all students: while

roughly one-quarter of all students transferred, about one-half of those pursuing an academic major and

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

24

working toward a bachelor’s degree did so. Second, the percentage of actual transfer students meeting the

criteria for inclusion in the denominator also declined significantly with the increasing restriction of the

definition of potential transfer (figure 4). In other words, attempts to include only those students most likely

to transfer actually exclude a sizable proportion of students who transfer anyway, without meeting those

criteria. For example, four out of five actual transfer students did not meet the most restrictive definition

considered. Accordingly, as shown in table 3, while the transfer rate of students not meeting the least restrictive definition—expecting to complete a bachelor’s degree or higher—was relatively small (5 percent), the

transfer rate of students not meeting the more restrictive definitions was relatively high (e.g., 20 percent

among those not taking courses leading toward the bachelor’s degree).

Figure 3.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage of

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, and of those students meeting the definition,

the percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Percentage of initial student cohort meeting definition Of those meeting definition, percentage who transferred

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

100

25

71

36

68

36

63

37

63

38

43 43

36

40

26

45

11

52

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
25

Figures 5 through 8 present the percentage of 1989–90 community college students who ever transferred

to a 4-year institution by spring 1994 for each potential transfer definition, by selected student background

characteristics.16 For example, figure 5 shows that 39 percent of all students 18 years old or younger ever

transferred to a 4-year institution, compared to 22 percent of students ages 19 to 21, and 8 percent of students age 22 or older.

16Supporting data for these figures are shown in appendix C, table C5. Analysis of differences in transfer rates by major field

of study within each definition was also conducted; however, due to small cell sizes, few conclusions could be drawn.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Figure 4.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions who

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the percentage who met the various definitions of

potential transfer

Percent

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

95

89

84

93

69

55

44

21

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

26

These figures are useful because they reveal whether any differences in transfer rates across student

groups remain when more restrictive definitions of potential transfer are applied to the sample. However,

this approach to holding the definition of potential transfers constant while examining variations across

student groups is limited by sample size. The number of cases in any given cell (e.g., students 22 years old

or older who are taking courses toward a bachelor’s degree) is often too small to produce an efficient estimate. As a result, some of the apparent differences across groups are not statistically significant. Still, some

patterns are suggested.

For example, in general, the older the age group, the lower the percentage of students who transferred,

regardless of the definition of potential transfer used (figure 5). Also, regardless of the potential transfer

Figure 5.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage

who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by age and for various definitions of potential

transfer

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

39

22

8

47

28

16

46

29

16

50

29

13

49

32

16

49

37

30

52

23

14

48

42

56

18 or below 19 through 21 22 or above

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

Categories not shown are based on too few cases for a reliable estimate.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
27

definition used, higher SES was generally associated with a higher transfer rate (figure 6). For some potential transfer definitions, the transfer rate for first-generation students was similar to the rate for those whose

parents attended a postsecondary institution, while the transfer rate for first-generation students was lower

for other definitions (figure 7). Overall, first-generation students were less likely to transfer than those who

were not; the same is true among students enrolled continuously, those enrolled anytime during 1990–91,

and those enrolled for 12 or more credit hours. However, for the other definitions of potential transfer, the

transfer rate for first-generation students and those whose parents attended a postsecondary institution was

about the same. Finally, both male and female transfer rates increased with increasingly restrictive definitions of potential transfer (figure 8).

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

 Figure 6.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage

who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by socioeconomic status and for various

definitions of potential transfer

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

Categories not shown are based on too few cases for a reliable estimate.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Lowest quartile Lower middle Upper middle Highest quartile

10

14

27

41

21 21

36

49

27

22

34

46

20 22

38

48

19

26

37

51

30

43

34

53

13

27

39

53

35

55

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

28

Table C5 in appendix C also shows transfer rates by racial/ethnic subgroups and by region for students

meeting each potential transfer definition. However, for several of the potential transfer definitions, there

were not enough students in most racial/ethnic subgroups to estimate transfer rates, so comparing racial/

ethnic patterns of transfer across definitions is not possible. In addition, it appears that generally across

the set of potential transfer definitions, students in the Northeast had lower transfer rates than those in the

other regions.

Figure 7.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage

who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by first-generation college status and for various

definitions of potential transfer

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

First generation Not first generation

19

35

32

41

33

39

30

44

29

47

42

46

30

49

44

47

54

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

Categories not shown are based on too few cases for a reliable estimate.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
29

Figure 8.—Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage

who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by gender and for various definitions of

potential transfer

All

students

Expected to 

complete

bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Enrolled in

an academic

program

Enrolled

continuously

in 1989–90

Enrolled

anytime in

academic

year 

1990–91

Pursuing

academic

major or 

taking courses

toward

bachelor’s

or both

Enrolled for 

12 or more

credit hours

Percent

Taking 

courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

Pursuing

academic

major and 

taking courses 

toward 

bachelor’s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Male Female

26 25

36 35 35 36 35

38 39

36

39

47

42

37

41

50 50

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

Categories not shown are based on too few cases for a reliable estimate.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
31

DISCUSSION

This study uses BPS data to explore various definitions of potential transfer: the percentage of community college students meeting each definition; the composition of the groups of students so defined and the

variation among student subgroups in the proportion meeting each definition; and the actual transfer activity

for different groups meeting these definitions. These results can be compared to the literature regarding two

questions about community college students’ transfer intentions and activities. First, what percentage of

students in community colleges have educational expectations that include a bachelor’s degree? This question is the basis for much of the debate surrounding the advantages and disadvantages of different ways of

defining the pool of potential transfer students. Second, what is the transfer rate for community college

students? The evidence from this report in response to these two questions is placed in the context of the

literature, although this contextual information is not intended to constitute a statistical comparison across

studies. The consequences for these questions of restricting the definition of potential transfer are discussed,

and the section concludes with a consideration of the practical matter of operationalization.

However, any comparisons between the estimates presented in this report and those from other studies

must be considered in light of differences in how the overall population of community college students is

defined across studies. For example, BPS excluded students taking courses only for remedial or avocational

purposes without receiving credit, while other estimates may include these students. As a result, the typical

amount of remediation for students in BPS may underestimate, or otherwise differ from, the amount of

remediation found among community college students in general—a factor that might be associated with

transfer to a 4-year institution. Furthermore, this report focuses only on students enrolled in public 2-year

colleges; including other less-than-4-year colleges, particularly less-than-2-year institutions, may lower the

estimates. Finally, BPS data are restricted to first-time beginning postsecondary students; colleges conducting their own studies of transfer may include entering students who are not first-time beginners as defined in

the BPS study.

Educational Expectations and Potential Transfer

• About 7 out of 10 beginning community college students explicitly stated educational

expectations that included a bachelor’s degree or higher, a somewhat higher rate than

previous estimates.

As noted previously, determining the percentage of students whose academic goals or expectations include a bachelor’s degree has been difficult. Dougherty (1987, 1992) reviewed several studies and con-
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

32

cluded that 30 to 40 percent of all community college entrants aspire to a baccalaureate degree. He also

noted the lack of nationally representative estimates and that the often-cited estimate of 70 percent for fulltime students from the American Council of Education’s annual first-year student survey is not representative of the full community college student population. In contrast, the BPS results reported here showed that

about 71 percent of all first-time beginning community college students expect to earn a bachelor’s degree.

However, student aspirations could change appreciably from one cohort to the next, and estimates could

therefore depend in part on when the survey was administered. Still, the overall estimate of 71 percent,

which is based on a reasonably broad definition of “community college students,” suggests that the academic expectations of these students are generally quite high.

• Using observed behaviors as indicators of transfer intent, anywhere from 11 to 68 percent

of beginning community college students took such steps.

Regarding the validity of self-reported student aspirations, Dougherty (1992) asked “whether one should

take what students say as the only valid indication [of baccalaureate aspirations], even if those statements

are not reflected in baccalaureate-oriented behavior, or whether one should only class as baccalaureate

aspirants those who take concrete steps in this direction?” (p. 189, fn. 1). This report has tried to address this

question partially by comparing different groups of potential transfer students, some defined by self-reports

of expectations and others by indicators of “concrete steps,” such as enrolling continuously during the first

year of postsecondary study. The selection of a specific behavior or combination of behaviors that most

accurately indicates baccalaureate orientation, however, is not obvious. Furthermore, the proportion of students taking each concrete step varies widely: for the various behavioral indicators of potential transfer,

between 11 and 68 percent of students met each definition.

• With increasing restriction of the pool of potential transfer students, the group was more

traditional and less representative of all beginning community college students.

Restricting the population of potential transfer students based on various measures of intent could affect the representativeness of the pool compared to all community college students. Spicer and Armstrong

(1996) examined the transfer rate in conjunction with the percentage of the initial cohort of students who

met the definition used in the denominator. In the two districts they studied, less than 40 percent of the

initial cohort met the Transfer Assembly definition of earning 12 credits within 4 years, while less than 4

percent met the most restrictive definition of the denominator. In this report, the percentage of first-time

students meeting the various definitions of potential transfer ranged from 11 to 71 percent, with the least

restrictive definition (apart from looking at all students) being educational expectations including a bachelor’s degree or higher. As the share of the population of community college students became smaller, the

characteristics of the group changed as well. For example, as the definition was restricted further, the group

of potential transfer students was more traditional (younger, more likely to be dependents, and less likely

to be working full time).
33

Transfer Estimates

As with estimates of educational expectations, the transfer rate estimates from BPS in this report can be

compared to those based on other datasets. Various approaches to defining the transfer rate have produced a

wide range of transfer estimates. Cohen (1991) found that the estimated transfer rate ranged from 5 to 84

percent across different studies, depending on how the denominator was defined. Transfer estimates tended

to be lowest when all community college students were used in the denominator and highest when the pool

of potential transfers was restricted to students with transfer intentions who had also earned associate’s

degrees.

As noted above, the Transfer Assembly project tries to address the lack of a consistent definition of the

transfer rate by providing a common method of calculating it that is readily estimated using data typically

collected by community colleges. As of 1997, over 400 community colleges, enrolling more than 50 percent

of all first-time community college students, participated in the project (Cohen and Sanchez 1997). The

project found that among the 1988 cohort of beginning community college students who earned a minimum

of 12 credit units in 4 years, about 22 percent had taken one or more classes at an in-state, 4-year college or

university within 4 years of their initial enrollment—a rate that remained fairly stable across several subsequent cohorts (Cohen and Sanchez 1997).

Several researchers have used longitudinal surveys of high school cohorts to estimate transfer rates. Lee

and Frank (1990), for instance, using the HS&B study, reported that 24 percent of students who entered

community college within 2 years of graduating from high school in 1980 transferred to 4-year institutions

within 4 years of graduating from high school.17 Using the same dataset, Grubb (1991) found a transfer rate

of 20 percent for all students, 25 percent for all students excluding those who completed fewer than 12

credits, and 34 percent for students who aspired to a bachelor’s or graduate degree during their last year in

high school. While the samples used in these national studies are representative of the high school cohort in

a given year and capture all transfers (rather than only those to in-state, public institutions), they are not

representative of all beginning community college students. Using BPS, McCormick (1997) found that 22

percent of all students who began at a community college in 1989–90 had transferred directly to a 4-year

institution by 1994. Among those students who indicated in 1989–90 that they were taking courses leading

toward a bachelor’s degree, 39 percent had transferred to a 4-year institution by 1994.

Rather than using one or two approaches to calculating the transfer rate, some studies of specific community colleges or systems have presented several different estimates for the same cohort of students by varying how the denominator is defined. These studies, however, tend to use local or regional samples. GutierrezMarquez (1994), for example, examined transfer and other outcomes of over 10,000 beginning students who

DISCUSSION

17High school graduates who entered a community college in the second year after graduating high school would have 3 or

fewer years to transfer and be counted as such (rather than the 4 years included in several other studies of transfer).
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

34

entered the City Colleges of Chicago in fall 1986. Among all students, 13 percent had transferred to an instate, 4-year institution by 1990.18 The transfer rate ranged from 15.5 percent for students who were enrolled

in baccalaureate/transfer programs to 19 percent using the Transfer Assembly definition, which restricts the

denominator to students who completed at least 12 credit hours in 4 years.

Spicer and Armstrong (1996) applied 11 ways of defining the denominator to a cohort of beginning

students enrolled in two California community college districts in fall 1988. The definitions ranged from

including all students new to the institution to the most restrictive definition, which included “all first-time

college students with a transfer goal who are transfer ready and who have completed at least fifty-six units”

(Spicer and Armstrong 1996, 50). Spicer and Armstrong also examined the transfer rates of students who

met the Transfer Assembly criteria, those who enrolled with a transfer goal, and students who were “transfer

ready” (i.e., they had completed freshman English composition and mathematics courses transferable to a 4-

year institution). In the first district, the estimated transfer rate ranged from 3.6 percent using the least

restrictive denominator definition to 40.4 percent using the most restrictive definition, while the rate for the

second district ranged from 5.3 to 61.3 percent. The Transfer Assembly definition yielded a transfer rate of

around 13 percent for both districts.

• Approximating the pool of potential transfers as defined in previous studies, such as the

Transfer Assembly model or high school cohorts, transfer rates in BPS appear to be a few

percentage points higher than previous estimates.

In general, the transfer rates found in this study appear to be somewhat higher than those from previous

research. For example, while the overall transfer rate found in this study is comparable to the average

estimate of 22 percent found by the Transfer Assembly project (Cohen and Sanchez 1997), both the numerator and denominator of the Transfer Assembly project are more restrictive: to be eligible, students must have

earned a minimum of 12 credit units in 4 years, and transfers were to in-state, 4-year colleges or universities

(Cohen and Sanchez 1997). Although BPS data do not facilitate use of this definition, this analysis approximated it by looking at those students who were enrolled for at least one term during the academic year

following their initial enrollment (they had to have taken at least two classes in 2 years, compared to the

Transfer Assembly criterion of about four classes in 4 years). This analysis found that 33 percent of students

meeting this criterion transferred to a 4-year college or university within 5 academic years of their initial

enrollment, which is somewhat higher than the rate resulting from the Transfer Assembly project. Using a

slightly different approximation of the Transfer Assembly definition, the rate of first transfer to public 4-

year institutions among beginning postsecondary students who enrolled in two consecutive academic years

was 29 percent, still a few percentage points higher than the Transfer Assembly estimates.

18It is not clear whether restrictions in this study included only for-credit students, only public school transfers, or for those in

baccalaureate/transfer programs, only initial enrollment in such a program.
35

Comparisons with other studies for other definitions also suggest higher estimates. While the transfer

rate obtained from a representative sample of community college students might be different from estimates

based on a high school cohort, the overall estimate of 25 percent in this report is similar to the transfer rate

of 20 to 24 percent for the high school class of 1980 (Grubb 1991; Lee and Frank 1990). However, the

resulting transfer rate of 39 percent among students who were 18 years old or younger when they first

enrolled in a community college is appreciably higher than the estimates based on 1980 high school graduates. This report replicated the estimates of first transfer rates for all beginning postsecondary students (22

percent) and for those taking courses leading toward a bachelor’s degree (39 percent) provided by McCormick

(1997) using the BPS dataset.

Finally, after reviewing numerous transfer studies, Dougherty (1994, 92) concluded that “the best estimate of the transfer rate of community college entrants is around 15 to 20%.” Although the overall transfer

rate estimate of 25 percent found in this report is somewhat higher than Dougherty’s estimate, some of the

discrepancy may be attributed to differences in definitions of community college students or transfer.

• As the pool of potential transfer students was restricted according to the various selection

criteria, the transfer rate generally increased.

This report also suggests some more general consequences of various choices of operationalization. For

example, the results show that transfer rates were generally higher among potential transfer students as the

definition became more restrictive. One explanation for this result, as suggested above, is that many students

who report high educational expectations (the most inclusive of the restricted definitions of potential transfer) are not “committed enough” to the idea of earning a bachelor’s degree to begin taking the necessary

steps to obtain one. Alternatively, students’ ability to transfer easily may vary from state to state, depending

on articulation agreements that establish transfer credits or admissions policies facilitating transfer across

levels of postsecondary education. Another explanation is that the difference in transfer rates may be due in

part to a lack of resources among some students with bachelor’s degree expectations, which may limit their

ability to take the necessary steps to achieve a degree. Indeed, this report found that the proportion of

students meeting each definition who had high SES increased as the definitions became more restrictive.

Furthermore, some of the behavioral measures of academic intentions yield transfer rates similar to that of

the self-reported measure, although they are somewhat more restrictive in terms of the percentage of the

initial cohort meeting the criteria. Finally, there is some evidence that differences in transfer rates across

various subgroups may not be accounted for by the definitions of potential transfer considered.

• As the definition of potential transfer became more restrictive, the percentage of actual

transfer students meeting the selection criteria tended to decrease.

To what extent do actual transfer students meet the criteria used to restrict the population to potential

transfer students? Spicer and Armstrong (1996) investigated the percentage of transfer students captured by

DISCUSSION
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

36

the definitions of potential transfer they studied in two community college districts. In one district, with the

exception of the “all students” definition, no more than 50 percent of transfer students were captured by any

definition, while in the other district 88 percent or more of transfer students were captured by several of the

definitions. In this report, the percentage of transfer students meeting the criteria for inclusion in the denominator declined significantly as the definition of potential transfer became more restrictive. While 95

percent of transfer students indicated educational expectations including the bachelor’s degree, about one in

five (20.5 percent) had academic majors and were taking courses leading toward the bachelor’s degree.

Operationalizing the Transfer Rate Denominator

This examination of alternative ways of defining the pool of potential transfer students was undertaken

in part to inform research at the design stage. The purpose of the research, however, was not to recommend

any particular definition as superior to all the others. Instead, the analysis contrasted these alternative definitions so that whatever choice is made for any specific research question can be understood in the context

of other options of operationalization that could have been selected. Three examples illustrate this point.

First, if the purpose of a particular analysis is to examine the effect of community college attendance on

student outcomes, such as bachelor’s degree attainment, then it may be most useful to examine the transfer

rates of students who expect to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher, as well as those who do not. Such an

analysis does not ignore the fact that at least some students who did not expect to earn a bachelor’s degree

or higher nevertheless transferred to a 4-year institution. Although the proportion who did so is relatively

small (5 percent), this result is consistent with the hypothesis that community college attendance may raise

some students’ expectations.

A second example further illustrates the point that the differences across definitions are not immediately

evident from estimated transfer rates. The results of the analysis suggest that three of the definitions based

upon enrollment—enrolled in an academic program, enrolled continuously in 1989–90, and enrolled anytime

in academic year 1990–91—define groups of students whose transfer rates are similar to the rate for students who expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher (about 32 or 33 percent for first transfer; table 3).

The percentages of students meeting these definitions, as well as the transfer rates of students not meeting

these definitions, are also similar. These results suggest that definitions of potential transfer based upon

certain enrollment characteristics are roughly comparable to the definition based upon students’ stated intent, which in some cases may be more difficult to obtain. However, while the aggregate numbers are comparable, the individual students comprising these groups vary. For example, for each enrollment-based definition, roughly one in five students did not express bachelor’s degree expectations (see appendix table C7).

The underlying composition of the groups may vary with respect to other characteristics as well.

Finally, the more restrictive definitions may be useful in identifying a group of community college students comparable (in terms of major and degree program) to students who first enroll in 4-year institutions.
37

For example, one definition of potential transfer used in this analysis included students who indicated that

they were pursuing academic majors or taking courses toward the bachelor’s degree (or both). This definition excludes students with vocational majors taking courses leading to the associate’s degree, as well as

those students pursuing certificates. Because relatively few 4-year institutions offer vocational associate’s

degrees or certificates, this definition may maximize comparability across 2- and 4-year student populations

in analyses of persistence and attainment. However, in the BPS:1990/1994 dataset, questions based on a

student’s major tended to have a higher than average number of missing values. Furthermore, while this

definition resulted in a fairly high transfer rate (43 percent), about two-fifths (43 percent) of community

college students met this definition, and it excluded about 30 percent of all transfer students. This definition

illustrates the trade-off between restricting the pool of potential transfer students and excluding substantial

portions of the initial cohort and actual transfer students.

Which definition (or definitions) is most appropriate for addressing a specific research question? The

decision is not straightforward. Just as any statistic depends on the specific variables used to indicate the

underlying concepts, the transfer rate for community college students is rather sensitive to the specification

of potential transfer. The most complete picture is provided by using multiple indicators, but this approach

is not always practical. If data collection costs or other constraints permit only one definition, one strategy

is to define the group of potential transfer students broadly enough so that it still generally reflects community college students, while not being so broad as to include students who never harbor plans to transfer to a

4-year college. This study presents several alternatives with different advantages and disadvantages.

Overall, the results of this study provide national estimates of community college students’ academic

expectations and transfer activity. These estimates refine and update our understanding of students’ intentions and paths to transfer. Selecting an approach to defining the pool of potential transfer students is a

necessary first step in any effort to analyze the impact of institution type on persistence and attainment. This

report has taken a step back and analyzed the definition itself by examining several alternative approaches

using a complete nationally representative sample. While the results do not demonstrate the superiority of

any single definition, they sharpen one’s appreciation for the consequences of measurement decisions and

build a firmer foundation for future work on this population. Such work will be facilitated by the completion

of the newest panel of the 1995–96 BPS, with follow-ups in 1998 and 2001. This new data source includes

data on students’ explicit transfer intentions and expectations of degree completion at the first institution

attended (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). This additional information, also available in a nationally representative sample, has the potential to substantially enrich our understanding of potential transfer populations.

DISCUSSION
39

REFERENCES

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of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Berkner, L.K., Horn, L., and Clune, M. (2000). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary

Students: Three Years Later With an Essay on Students Who Start at Less-Than-4-Year Institutions (NCES

2000–154). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC:

U.S. Government Printing Office.

Berkner, L.K., Cuccaro-Alamin, S., and McCormick, A.C. (1996). Descriptive Summary of 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students: 5 Years Later With an Essay on Postsecondary Persistence and Attainment

(NCES 96–155). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington,

DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Brint, S., and Karabel, J. (1989). The Diverted Dream; Community Colleges and the Promise of Educational

Opportunity in America, 1900–1985. New York: Oxford University Press.

California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office. (1999). Policy Analysis and MIS Division Student

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Cohen, A.M. (1991). Deriving a Valid Transfer Rate. In E.B. Jones (Ed.), A Model for Deriving the Transfer

Rate (pp. 1–15). Washington, DC: American Association of Community and Junior Colleges.

Cohen, A.M., and Sanchez, J. R. (1997). The Transfer Rate: A Model of Consistency. Los Angeles, CA:

Center for the Study of Community Colleges. (ERIC ED409952)

Dougherty, K. (1987). The Effects of Community Colleges: Aid or Hindrance to Socioeconomic Attainment? Sociology of Education, 60(2):86–103.

Dougherty, K. (1992). Community Colleges and Baccalaureate Attainment. Journal of Higher Education,

63(2):188-214.

Dougherty, K. (1994). The Contradictory College. Albany, NY: SUNY Press.

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Grubb, W.N. (1988). Vocationalizing Higher Education: The Causes of Enrollment and Completion in Public Two-Year Colleges, 1970–1980. Economics of Education Review, 7(3): 301–319.
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Grubb, W.N. (1991). The Decline of Community College Transfer Rates: Evidence from National Longitudinal Surveys. Journal of Higher Education, 62(2):194–222.

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Orleans, LA, May 29–June 1, 1994. (ERIC ED376908)

Horn, L.J., and Berktold, J. (1998). Profile of Undergraduates in U.S. Postsecondary Education Institutions:

1995–96 (NCES 98–084). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Kojaku, L., and Nuñez, A.-M. (1998). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students,

With Profiles of Students Entering 2- and 4-Year Institutions (NCES 1999–030). U.S. Department of

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Laanan, F.S., and Sanchez, J.R. (1996). New Ways of Conceptualizing Transfer Rate Definitions. New Directions for Community Colleges, 24(4):35–43.

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Deriving the Transfer Rate (pp. 17–29). Washington, DC: American Association of Community and

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41

APPENDIX A—GLOSSARY

This glossary describes the variables used in this report. These variables were selected directly from the

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994) Data Analysis System (DAS), an

NCES software application that generates tables directly from the BPS:1990/1994 data files. A description

of the DAS files can be found in appendix B. The variables are organized in alphabetical order by label used

in the report. The BPS:1990/1994 variable label is indicated to the right of each entry in the glossary. The

index below groups the variables as they are used in the report.

Glossary Index

Potential Transfer Definitions

Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or

higher............................................................ 44

Enrolled in an academic program ................... 43

Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 .................. 43

Enrolled anytime in academic year

1990–91 ........................................................ 43

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours............... 43

Taking courses toward bachelor’s ................... 47

Pursuing academic major or taking courses

toward bachelor’s or both............................. 45

Pursuing academic major and taking

 courses toward bachelor’s ........................... 45

Other Student Characteristics

Age as of 12/31/89 .......................................... 42

Attendance intensity ........................................ 42

Socioeconomic status ...................................... 47

First-generation college status ........................ 44

Gender ............................................................. 44

Race/ethnicity .................................................. 45

Region of institution ........................................ 46

Self-rated academic ability ............................. 46

Self-rated mathematical ability ....................... 47

Took remedial math in 1989–90 ..................... 47

Delayed enrollment after high school ............. 42

Campus participation index ............................ 42

Single parent .................................................... 47

Dependency status ........................................... 43

Hours worked per week ................................... 44

Received financial aid ..................................... 46

Ratio of aid to price ......................................... 45

Transfer Outcomes

First transferred to 4-year................................ 44

Ever transferred to 4-year................................ 43
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

42

Age as of 12/31/89 AGE

Student’s age as of 12/31/89. Ages in years were grouped as follows:

18 or below

19 through 21

22 and above

22 through 24

25 through 34

35 through 44

45 and above

Attendance intsensity ATTEND

Whether student attended the institution full time or less than full time during the sampled 1989–90 term.

Full time

Less than full time

Campus participation index CLIMINDX

Overall participation index of activities the student reported doing during the 1989–90 academic year either

“sometimes” or “often.” Activities included attending career-related lectures, having informal contact with

faculty members, participating in student assistance centers/programs, participating in study groups, meeting advisors about academic plans, participating in intramurals, participating in school clubs, talking about

academics with faculty, and going out with school friends. Possible scores as coded in the DAS range from

0 to 9. Scores were grouped into the following categories:

2 or below

3–4

5–6

7 or above

Delayed enrollment after high school DELAYENR

Indicates whether or not the student delayed postsecondary education following high school graduation.

Those who graduated earlier than 1989, or who did not receive a regular high school diploma, were considered to have delayed enrollment.
43

Dependency status DEPEND

Indicates whether the student was considered a dependent or independent student for financial aid purposes

in academic year 1989–90.

Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 ENAY8990

Indicates whether or not the student enrolled in a postsecondary institution at any time during the 1990–91

academic year. Students who were enrolled at some point during 1990–91 were included in this pool of

potential transfers. Some students meeting this definition may have already left the community college in

which they first enrolled.

Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 ST8990

Indicates the student’s continuous full-time or part-time enrollment during 1989–90. Students classified as

having “continuous full-time” or “other continuous” enrollment were included in this pool of potential

transfer students.

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours CREDHRS

This DAS variable indicates the number of semester hours for which the student was enrolled during the

primary term. Quarter hours were converted to semester hours by multiplying by 2/3. Students who had

enrolled for 12 or more credit hours were included in this pool of potential transfer students.

Enrolled in an academic program VOCA8990

This variable was derived based on the student’s report of whether his/her program of study was primarily

academic or vocational. The question was asked during the first follow-up in the spring of 1992 for each

previous term of postsecondary enrollment, and a value was assigned for 1989–90 based on the student’s

response for the earliest term queried. Students who reported being in an academic program were included

in this pool of potential transfer students.

Ever transferred to 4-year EVER4YR

Classifies the student according to whether he/she ever attended a 4-year postsecondary institution as of the

second follow-up in spring 1994. Those who had were included in the calculation of this transfer rate.

APPENDIX A—GLOSSARY
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

44

Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher EXEDCOL

This variable is based on the student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you

ever expect to complete?” Students responding that they expected to receive a bachelor’s degree, master’s

degree or equivalent, Ph.D., M.D., or other advanced professional degree were included in this pool of

potential transfer students.

First-generation college status RPARED

This variable indicates whether the student was the first generation to enter postsecondary education, based

on the higher of the parents’ educational attainment. Students whose parents had not taken any postsecondary

education were considered first- generation students.

First transferred to 4-year TRANTO

This variable classifies the institutional level of the first institution the student enrolled in after leaving the

institution at which he/she was sampled for participation in the study. For this report, students whose first

transfer was to a public or private 4-year institution were included in the calculation of this transfer rate,

versus all others, including those transferring to other institution types or never enrolling in a different

institution.

Gender H_GENDR

Indicates whether the student was male or female.

Hours worked per week EMWKHR2

This variable calculates the average hours worked per week between 07/01/89 and 06/30/90 for all students

(including those who did not work). If a student was employed (including college work-study and any

assistantships) during a given month, the average number of hours worked per week across all jobs held

during the month was derived based on the start and end dates and the average hours worked per week for

each job as reported during the interview. This estimate was calculated as follows: 1) determine the average

number of hours per week a student worked during each month; 2) sum the average hours per week across 12

months; and 3) divide by 12 months. For example, if a student worked 40 hours per week for 3 months

during the year and did not work during the remaining 9 months, his/her value for this variable would be 10

[(40+40+40)/12]. Therefore, this variable indicates the number of hours worked per week averaged over a

12-month period. For this report, responses were grouped as follows:
45

Fewer than 35

35 or more

Pursuing an academic major and taking courses toward bachelor’s MAJDEG89

This variable is based on two survey questions. The first is “What is your major?” (at the institution in which

the student first enrolled). Students reporting a major in humanities, social and behavioral science, life

sciences, physical sciences, mathematics, or education were considered to be pursuing an academic major.

Students reporting a major in computer and information technology, engineering, business and management, health, vocational/technical, or other technical/professional program were considered to be pursuing

a vocational degree. The second component of this variable is based on the question, “Toward which degree

or other award are the courses you are taking leading?” (See “Taking courses toward bachelor’s,” below.)

Students’ major type was cross-classified with the type of credential they indicated they were working on.

For this report, students whose category for MAJDEG89 was academic bachelor’s degree were included in

this pool of potential transfer students.

Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward bachelor’s or both MAJDEG89

This variable is based on the same DAS variable as the previous entry. However, it is more inclusive. Students whose category for MAJDEG89 was reported as academic bachelor’s degree, academic associate’s

degree, or vocational bachelor’s degree were included in this pool of potential transfer students. Thus, students with academic majors who indicated they were pursuing the associate’s degree or higher, as well as

those working on the bachelor’s degree in vocational majors, were included.

Race/ethnicity BPSRACE

Indicates the student’s racial/ethnic background in the following five categories: white, non-Hispanic; black,

non-Hispanic; Hispanic; Asian/Pacific Islander; or American Indian/Alaskan Native.

Ratio of aid to price AIDRTIO2

Ratio of total aid to attendance-adjusted, student-reported price. This variable adjusts for non-tuition charges

of part-time and independent students so that the monthly expenses of the household included in educational

charges are limited to the student and related to attendance intensity. The total price is reduced by one-fourth

of the sum of the room, board, and other off-campus expenses for part-time students attending half time or

APPENDIX A—GLOSSARY
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

46

more, and by three-fourths for those attending less than half time. This provides a total price of attendance

amount that more closely reflects the assumptions used in awarding financial aid. For this report, responses

were grouped as follows:

Zero

1–33 percent

34–67 percent

68–100 percent

Received financial aid AID8990

Indicates whether or not the student received financial aid during the 1989–90 academic year.

Region of institution OBEREG

The region of the student’s 1989–90 institution at which he/she was sampled for participation in the study.

Although students from outlying areas were included in the study, there were no such students attending

public 2-year institutions. The following categories were used:

Northeast

New England

Mid East

Midwest

Great Lakes

Plains

South

Southeast

Southwest

West

Rocky Mountains

Far West

Self-rated academic ability COMPAREA

Student’s self-rating during his/her first postsecondary term of his/her academic ability in response to the

following question as part of a series: “Compared with the average person of your age, would you rate

yourself as above average, average, or below average in... academic ability?”
47

Self-rated mathematical ability COMPAREF

Student’s self-rating during his/her first postsecondary term of his/her mathematical ability in response to

the following question as part of a series: “Compared with the average person of your age, would you rate

yourself as above average, average, or below average in... mathematical ability?”

Single parent SINGLPAR

Indicates whether or not the student was a single parent as of academic year 1989–90, based on the student’s

marital status, dependency status, and whether or not the student reported having dependents other than a

spouse. Students who were themselves dependent were not counted as single parents.

Socioeconomic status SESPERC

Students’ socioeconomic status in academic year 1989–90. Composite variable combining parents’ occupation (father/mother), things in the home (dishwasher, VCR), and dependents’ family income. Percentiles for

this composite variable were grouped into quartiles for this report:

. Lowest quartile

Lower middle

Upper middle

Highest quartile

Taking courses toward bachelor’s GOAL8990

This variable is based on the question, “Toward which degree or other award are the courses you are taking

leading?” Those who indicated that their coursework was leading toward a bachelor’s degree were included

in this pool of potential transfer students.

Took remedial math in 1989–90 REMMATH

Student’s response to a question about whether he/she had taken any remedial math from July 1, 1989, until

the survey. The DAS variable is a continuous variable indicating the number of hours of remedial math

taken; for this study, the responses were collapsed into the following categories:

No Took no hours

Yes Took at least 1 hour

APPENDIX A—GLOSSARY
49

APPENDIX B—TECHNICAL NOTES AND METHODOLOGY

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study

The need for a nationally representative database on postsecondary student financial aid prompted the

U.S. Department of Education to initiate the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS), a crosssectional survey conducted every 3 years starting in 1987. The NPSAS sample was designed to include

students enrolled in all types of postsecondary education. However, service academies were not included in

the institution sample because of their unique funding and tuition base, and certain other institutions were

also excluded.19 In addition to a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) of students and parents, the

NPSAS surveys collect students’ registration and financial aid information directly from the sampled institutions. To provide the full range of information on financing postsecondary education, NPSAS samples

both aided and nonaided students.

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994) followed students from the

NPSAS:1990 sample who were identified as first-time beginning students in academic year 1989–90. A CATI

was conducted with these students 2 and 4 years after the base year study that collected information concerning

enrollment, program completion, education financing, employment, and family formation; graduate school

access and enrollment; and civic participation. The data derived from this survey permit a variety of analyses

concerning postsecondary persistence and completion, entry into the work force, and civic participation.

Unlike other NCES longitudinal surveys based on grade-specific cohorts (such as High School and Beyond), the BPS design allows for the increasing numbers of nontraditional postsecondary students, such as

those who have delayed their education due to financial needs or family responsibilities. Students who

began their postsecondary studies before 1989–90, stopped out, and then returned to their studies in 1989–

90 were not included, nor were students still enrolled in high school.

The NPSAS and BPS survey samples, while representative and statistically accurate, are not simple

random samples. Instead, the samples are selected using a more complex three-step procedure with stratified samples and differential probabilities of selection at each level. First, postsecondary institutions are

selected within geographic strata. Once institutions are organized by zip code and state, they are further

stratified by control (i.e., public; private, not-for-profit; or private, for-profit) and degree offering (less-than2-year, 2- to 3-year, 4-year nondoctorate-granting, and 4-year doctorate-granting).

19Other excluded institutions were those offering only avocational, recreational, or remedial courses; only in-house business

courses; only programs of less than 3 months’ duration; or only correspondence courses.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

50

For more information on BPS:1990/1994, consult the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study Second Follow-up (BPS:90/94) Final Technical Report (Pratt et al. 1996).

Accuracy of Estimates

The statistics in this report are estimates derived from a sample. Two broad categories of error occur in

such estimates: sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors occur because observations are made

only on samples of students, not on entire populations. Nonsampling errors occur not only in sample surveys, but also in complete censuses of entire populations.

Nonsampling errors can be attributed to a number of sources: inability to obtain complete information

about all students in all institutions in the sample (e.g., some students or institutions refused to participate,

or students participated but answered only certain items); ambiguous definitions; differences in interpreting

questions; inability or unwillingness to give correct information; mistakes in recording or coding data; and

other errors of collecting, processing, sampling, and imputing missing data.

Data Analysis System

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the BPS:1990/1994 Data Analysis System

(DAS). The DAS software makes it possible for users to specify and generate their own tables from BPS

data. With the DAS, users can replicate or expand upon the tables presented in this report. In addition to the

table estimates, the DAS calculates proper standard errors20 and weighted sample sizes for these estimates.

If the number of valid cases is too small to produce a reliable estimate (fewer than 30 cases), the DAS prints

the message “low n” instead of the estimate. In addition to tables, the DAS will also produce a correlation

matrix of selected variables to be used for linear regression models. Included in the output with the correlation matrix are the design effects (DEFTs) for each variable in the matrix. Since statistical procedures

generally compute regression coefficients based on simple random sample assumptions, the standard errors

must be adjusted with the design effects to take into account the BPS stratified sampling method.

The DAS can be accessed electronically at www.PEDAR-DAS.org. For more information about the

BPS:1990/1994 DAS, contact:

20The BPS sample is not a simple random sample; therefore, simple random sample techniques for estimating sampling error

cannot be applied to these data. The DAS takes into account the complexity of the sampling procedures and calculates

standard errors appropriate for such samples. The method for computing sampling errors used by the DAS involves approximating the estimator by the linear terms of a Taylor series expansion. The procedure is typically referred to as the Taylor

series method.
51

APPENDIX B—TECHNICAL NOTES AND METHODOLOGY

Aurora D’Amico

National Center for Education Statistics

Postsecondary Studies Division

1990 K Street, NW

Washington, DC 20006–5650

(202) 502–7334

E-mail: Aurora_D’Amico@ed.gov

Statistical Procedures

Two types of statistical procedures were employed in this report: testing differences between two estimates and testing for linear trends in estimates across a set of ordered categories. Each procedure is described below.

Differences Between Estimates

The descriptive comparisons were tested in this report using the Student’s t statistic. Differences between

estimates are tested against the probability of a Type I error or significance level. The significance levels

were determined by calculating the Student’s t values for the differences between each pair of means or

proportions, and comparing these with published tables of significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis

testing. The Student’s t values may be computed to test the difference between estimates with the following

formula:

(1)

where E1

 and E2 are the estimates to be compared, and se1 and se2 are their corresponding standard errors.

This formula is valid only for independent estimates. When estimates are not independent, a covariance

term must be added to the formula. If the comparison is between the mean of a subgroup and the mean of the

total group, the following formula is used:

(2)

t = −

+

(E E )

(se se )

1 2

1

2

2

2

t = −

+

(E E )

se se - 2(p)se

tot sub

tot

2

sub

2

sub

2
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

52

where p is the proportion of the total group contained in the subgroup. When comparing two percentages

from a distribution that adds to 100 percent, the following formula is used:

(3)

where r is the correlation between the two estimates. The estimates, standard errors, and correlations can all

be obtained from the DAS.

There are hazards in reporting statistical tests for each comparison. First, comparisons based on large t

statistics may appear to merit special attention. This can be misleading, since the magnitude of the t statistic

is related not only to the observed differences in means or percentages but also to the number of students in

the specific categories used for comparison. Hence, a small difference compared across a large number of

students would produce a large t statistic.

A second hazard in reporting statistical tests for each comparison occurs when making multiple comparisons among categories of an independent variable. For example, when making paired comparisons across

different racial/ethnic groups, the probability of a Type I error for these comparisons taken as a group is

larger than the probability for a single comparison. When more than one difference between groups of

related characteristics or “families” is tested for statistical significance, one must apply a standard that

assures a level of significance for all of those comparisons taken together. Comparisons were made in this

report only when p< .05/k for a particular pairwise comparison, where that comparison was one of k tests

within a family. This guarantees both that the individual comparison would have p< .05 and that for k

comparisons within a family of possible comparisons, the significance level for all the comparisons will sum

to p< .05.21

For example, in a comparison of the percentages of males and females who enrolled in postsecondary

education, only one comparison is possible (males versus females). In this family, k=1, and the comparison

can be evaluated without adjusting the significance level. When students are divided into five racial/ethnic

groups and all possible comparisons are made, then k=10 and the significance level of each test must be p<

.05/10, or p< .005. The formula for calculating family size (k) is as follows:

(4)

t = −

+

(E E )

se se - 2(r)se se

1 2

1

2

2

2

1 2

k j j = ( ) −1

2

21The standard that p<.05/k for each comparison is more stringent than the criterion that the significance level of the comparisons should sum to p<.05. For tables showing the t statistic required to ensure that p<.05/k for a particular family size and

degrees of freedom, see Dunn (1961).
53

where j is the number of categories for the variable being tested. In the case of race/ethnicity, there are five

racial/ethnic groups (American Indian/Alaskan Native; Asian/Pacific Islander; black, non-Hispanic; Hispanic; and white, non-Hispanic), so substituting 5 for j in equation 4,

(5)

Linear Trends

When comparing estimates across a family of three or more categories that are ordered, however, such as

SES quartiles, it is possible to test whether the estimates may also be ordered more efficiently than with a

series of paired comparisons.

When proportions were examined relative to a variable with ordered categories, the Student’s t-test was

applied to a measure of a linear trend. The test involves estimating a simple linear regression with a variable

representing the order of the categories as the independent variable (e.g., SES quartile), and the proportion

of interest (e.g., the percentage who enrolled for 12 or more credits) as the dependent variable. Before

estimating the regression, the data must be adjusted by the design effects to account for the complex sample

design. The t statistic is calculated as the ratio of the regression coefficient to its standard error. If t is greater

than 1.96 (the critical value of t at a significance level of .05), there is evidence of a linear relationship

between the two variables.22

k = − = 55 1

2

10 ( )

APPENDIX B—TECHNICAL NOTES AND METHODOLOGY

22For more information about this modification of Student’s t-test, see Snedecor and Cochran (1967, 246–247). For more

information about linear regression, see Lewis-Beck (1980).
55

APPENDIX C—SUPPLEMENTAL AND STANDARD

ERROR TABLES
56

Table C1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginnin

enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to various student and institution characteristics

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Total †††††††Age as of 12/31/89

18 or below 2.33 2.56 2.64 2.84 2.77 3.03 3.36 19 through 21 1.80 2.28 2.37 2.38 2.22 2.74 2.70 22 or above 2.43 2.15 2.17 2.31 2.54 2.26 2.43 

22 through 24 1.06 1.21 0.98 1.10 1.16 1.06 1.15 25 through 34 1.39 1.38 1.52 1.54 1.50 1.66 1.57 35 through 44 0.91 0.95 1.09 1.14 1.10 1.11 1.06 

45 or above 0.83 0.46 0.70 0.63 0.63 0.51 0.44 

Socioeconomic status

Lowest quartile 1.67 1.54 1.68 1.75 1.75 1.90 2.12 Lower middle 1.79 2.26 2.39 1.94 2.27 2.79 1.99 Upper middle 1.87 2.28 2.72 2.25 2.38 3.12 3.14 Highest quartile 1.75 2.27 2.59 2.27 2.17 3.19 3.39 

First-generation college status

First generation 2.18 2.41 2.76 2.53 2.50 3.31 3.40 Not first generation 2.18 2.41 2.76 2.53 2.50 3.31 3.40 

Gender

Male 2.21 2.59 2.78 2.81 2.69 3.31 3.41 Female 2.21 2.59 2.78 2.81 2.69 3.31 3.41 

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 2.26 2.67 2.76 2.54 2.72 3.75 2.86 Black, non-Hispanic 1.30 1.57 1.46 1.22 1.39 2.00 1.65 

Hispanic 1.63 1.78 1.94 1.77 2.14 2.69 2.15 Asian/Pacific Islander 0.78 1.03 1.15 1.03 1.13 1.80 1.46 American Indian/

Alaskan Native 0.32 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.43 0.76 0.42 
57

Table C1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginnin

enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Region of institution

Northeast 4.04 4.14 4.31 3.61 3.97 4.86 4.77 

New England 2.35 1.93 2.08 1.44 1.62 1.45 2.36 Mid East 3.67 3.93 4.06 3.48 3.82 4.78 4.48 

Midwest 3.29 3.62 3.85 3.26 3.65 4.30 4.31 

Great Lakes 2.94 3.26 3.68 2.94 3.43 4.02 3.84 Plains 1.86 1.96 1.45 1.70 1.72 2.06 2.44 

South 3.69 4.02 4.34 3.97 4.13 4.68 4.70 

Southeast 3.29 3.56 3.99 3.65 3.64 4.31 4.11 Southwest 2.09 2.29 2.05 1.99 2.42 2.01 2.58 

West 3.68 3.99 4.37 3.84 4.08 4.89 4.35 

Rocky Mountains 0.94 0.80 1.02 1.13 1.03 1.31 1.39 Far West 3.67 3.99 4.38 3.83 4.06 4.90 4.24 

Self-rated academic ability

Above average 1.71 2.16 2.31 2.16 2.23 2.99 2.66 Average 1.83 2.22 2.46 2.35 2.35 3.09 2.74 Below average 0.60 0.72 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.95 0.81 

Self-rated mathematical ability

Above average 1.62 2.13 2.33 2.19 2.06 3.00 2.91 Average 1.81 2.34 2.50 2.24 2.32 3.16 3.19 Below average 1.39 1.91 2.00 1.93 1.96 2.80 2.31 

Took remedial math in 1989–90

No 1.53 1.96 1.95 1.69 1.86 3.00 2.02 Yes 1.53 1.96 1.95 1.69 1.86 3.00 2.02 

Delayed enrollment after high school

No 2.42 2.63 2.43 2.56 2.58 2.87 3.30 Yes 2.42 2.63 2.43 2.56 2.58 2.87 3.30 
58

Table C1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginnin

enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Attendance intensity

Full time 2.53 3.00 3.21 2.91 2.98 3.95 1.04 Less than full time 2.53 3.00 3.21 2.91 2.98 3.95 1.04 

Campus participation index

2 or below 2.11 2.35 2.24 2.25 2.19 2.76 3.11 3–4 2.24 2.72 2.54 2.58 2.70 3.90 3.33 5–6 1.61 2.26 2.20 1.99 2.05 3.11 2.80 7 or above 1.21 1.57 1.61 1.66 1.56 2.05 2.27 

Single parent

No 1.09 0.94 1.12 0.91 1.07 0.98 1.16 Yes 1.09 0.94 1.12 0.91 1.07 0.98 1.16 

Dependency status

Dependent 2.37 2.16 2.29 2.38 2.48 2.50 2.54 Independent 2.37 2.16 2.29 2.38 2.48 2.50 2.54 

Hours worked per week

Fewer than 35 2.05 2.49 2.27 2.29 2.53 3.25 2.13 35 or more 2.05 2.49 2.27 2.29 2.53 3.25 2.13 

Received financial aid

No 2.10 2.23 2.53 2.50 2.49 3.04 3.83 Yes 2.10 2.23 2.53 2.50 2.49 3.04 3.83 
59

Table C1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage distributions within potential transfer categories of 1989–90 beginnin

enrolled at public 2-year institutions according to various student and institution characteristics—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic Total or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Ratio of aid to price*

No aid 2.09 2.24 2.47 2.48 2.46 2.98 3.79 1–33 percent 1.44 1.52 1.73 1.75 1.73 2.03 2.96 

34–67 percent 0.89 1.15 1.07 1.18 1.15 1.63 1.57 

68–100 percent 0.90 1.12 1.12 1.22 1.19 1.40 1.77 

†Not applicable.*Price adjusted for attendance intensity. See the glossary (appendix A) for details.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.
60

Table C2.—Standard errors for table 2: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year in

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Total 2.06 2.22 2.39 2.03 2.34 2.30 

Age as of 12/31/89

18 or below 2.69 2.49 3.47 2.86 3.30 3.30 19 through 21 3.28 4.03 4.38 3.55 3.98 3.83 22 or above 4.06 4.05 4.71 3.67 3.50 3.05 

22 through 24 7.44 8.93 9.68 8.17 8.15 6.17 25 through 34 6.44 6.77 6.32 5.54 5.65 4.24 35 through 44 7.11 8.72 9.38 8.25 7.03 5.69 45 or above ——————

Socioeconomic status

Lowest quartile 4.54 5.43 5.56 4.35 4.27 4.13 Lower middle 4.79 5.00 5.13 4.84 4.60 3.32 Upper middle 3.77 3.95 4.41 3.49 3.85 4.29 Highest quartile 2.89 2.98 3.47 2.64 3.86 3.83 

First-generation college status

First generation 3.15 3.40 3.09 2.94 3.30 3.01 Not first generation 2.27 2.70 2.71 2.61 3.11 3.16 

Gender

Male 2.77 3.22 3.52 2.82 3.63 3.27 Female 2.95 3.11 3.18 2.83 2.96 2.87 

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 2.44 2.45 2.83 2.44 2.67 2.57 Black, non-Hispanic 5.19 6.81 7.69 7.16 6.69 6.51 

Hispanic 5.83 5.75 8.14 6.05 8.01 6.49 Asian/Pacific Islander ——————

American Indian/ Alaskan Native ——————
61

Table C2.—Standard errors for table 2: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year in

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Region of institution

Northeast 4.29 3.98 5.71 4.59 4.92 4.28 

New England 8.82 — — 6.25 — 13.64 

Mid East 4.22 4.55 5.66 4.97 5.36 3.52 

Midwest 5.29 5.39 4.82 4.55 5.47 5.34 

Great Lakes 6.45 6.95 5.81 5.91 7.36 6.12 Plains 9.42 6.12 8.45 6.81 6.87 10.59 

South 3.53 4.93 4.34 3.48 4.59 4.51 

Southeast 4.45 5.90 4.35 4.08 5.82 5.28 Southwest 5.13 8.05 10.53 5.68 6.11 8.11 

West 3.52 3.33 4.76 3.80 3.97 3.99 

Rocky Mountains ——————

Far West 3.54 3.48 5.06 4.10 4.20 4.18 

Self-rated academic ability

Above average 3.16 3.77 3.88 3.30 4.16 3.84 Average 2.66 2.51 2.93 2.42 2.86 2.67 Below average ——————

Self-rated mathematical ability

Above average 3.59 3.82 4.06 3.98 4.21 4.36 Average 2.92 2.92 3.01 2.55 2.94 2.92 Below average 3.76 4.48 5.47 4.92 5.78 4.49 

Took remedial math in 1989–90

No 2.19 2.28 2.63 2.16 2.36 2.39 Yes 4.71 5.57 6.78 6.38 7.06 5.99 

Delayed enrollment after high school

No 2.30 2.46 2.71 2.44 3.05 3.11 Yes 3.43 3.34 3.75 2.86 3.10 2.75 
62

Table C2.—Standard errors for table 2: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year in

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Attendance intensity

Full time 2.37 2.72 2.42 2.66 3.00 3.85 Less than full time 3.25 3.32 3.68 3.00 3.59 0.73 

Campus participation index

2 or below 4.03 3.79 3.70 3.59 3.82 3.25 3–4 3.09 3.36 3.74 3.63 4.22 4.08 5–6 4.10 4.47 4.33 4.10 5.08 4.72 7 or above 5.15 6.38 5.29 6.22 7.38 6.98 

Single parent

No 1.99 2.26 2.34 2.10 2.48 2.31 Yes 8.58 8.33 8.96 6.25 6.49 6.42 

Dependency status

Dependent 2.02 2.31 2.77 2.32 2.75 2.81 Independent 3.66 3.80 4.15 3.14 3.45 2.77 

Hours worked per week

Fewer than 35 2.30 2.28 2.55 2.37 2.57 2.72 35 or more 4.48 4.20 4.24 3.70 4.56 2.61 

Received financial aid

No 2.40 2.46 2.83 2.35 2.93 2.47 Yes 3.40 3.73 3.46 3.25 3.61 4.46 
63

Table C2.—Standard errors for table 2: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year in

initial cohort meeting each definition of potential transfer, by various student and institution characteristics—

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled T

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 c

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more t

Characteristic or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours ba

Ratio of aid to price*

No aid 2.41 2.42 2.83 2.35 2.92 2.50 1–33 percent 4.58 4.66 4.62 4.11 4.78 5.57 

34–67 percent 5.67 6.93 6.84 6.41 8.00 6.97 

68–100 percent 6.73 7.97 6.41 7.06 7.05 8.19 

†Not applicable.— Too few cases for a reliable estimate.*Price adjusted for attendance intensity. See the glossary (appendix A) for details.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE TRANSFER RATES TO FOUR-YEAR INSTITUTIONS

64

Table C3.—Standard errors for table 3: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year

institutions, percentage who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, for various definitions of

potential transfer

First transferred Ever transferred

Potential transfer definition to 4-year to 4-year

All students 1.73 1.80

Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher 2.23 2.29

Students not meeting this definition 1.36 1.63

Enrolled in an academic program 2.46 2.48

Students not meeting this definition 2.00 2.07

Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 2.40 2.50

Students not meeting this definition 2.51 2.73

Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 2.43 2.45

Students not meeting this definition 1.21 1.31

Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward bachelor’s or both 3.31 3.23

Students not meeting this definition 1.94 2.06

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours 3.11 3.23

Students not meeting this definition 1.88 2.05

Taking courses toward bachelor’s 4.00 4.04

Students not meeting this definition 1.72 1.81

Pursuing academic major and taking courses toward bachelor’s 7.39 7.18

Students not meeting this definition 1.99 2.07

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.
65

Table C4.—Estimates and standard errors for figure 4: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled

at public 2-year institutions who transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, the percentage who

met the various definitions of potential transfer

Percentage of

transfer students

Potential transfer definition with characteristic Standard error

Expected to complete bachelor’s degree or higher 94.9 1.73

Enrolled in an academic program 88.7 2.41

Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 84.4 3.54

Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 92.8 2.00

Pursuing academic major or taking courses toward bachelor’s or both 68.5 3.62

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours 55.2 4.27

Taking courses toward bachelor’s 43.5 3.59

Pursuing academic major and taking courses toward bachelor’s 20.5 3.12

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:1990/1994), Data Analysis System.

APPENDIX C—SUPPLEMENTAL AND STANDARD ERROR TABLES
66

Table C5.— Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage who transfe

by spring 1994, by student characteristics and for various definitions of potential transfer

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

All degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic students or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Age

18 or below 38.9 47.4 46.1 49.6 48.8 48.9 51.7 419 through 21 21.5 28.4 28.6 29.3 31.8 36.7 23.2 4

22 or above 7.7 15.9 15.8 13.4 16.2 30.1 13.5 

Socioeconomic quartile

Lowest quartile 10.2 21.0 27.0 20.0 18.9 29.9 13.2 

Lower middle 14.2 20.9 22.1 22.3 25.7 43.4 27.4 Upper middle 27.1 35.7 33.9 38.1 37.5 34.4 38.5 3Highest quartile 40.6 48.6 46.3 48.4 51.4 52.5 52.8 5

First-generation college status

First generation 19.1 31.9 33.4 30.1 29.3 42.1 30.1 4Not first generation 34.6 41.4 39.0 43.7 46.9 45.8 48.8 4

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 26.3 38.3 38.0 37.6 39.3 48.6 40.4 5Black, non-Hispanic 15.8 15.9 —————Hispanic 24.9 34.1 29.3 34.2 32.2 ——Asian/Pacific Islander ———————American Indian/

Alaskan Native ———————

Region of institution

Northeast 20.2 27.7 27.9 30.6 31.3 32.0 29.2 

Midwest 27.1 42.8 43.3 37.3 43.1 53.2 42.3 4South 28.6 39.7 41.0 43.2 40.8 48.2 47.0 5West 24.7 32.7 31.2 33.3 35.2 39.6 38.9 3
67

Table C5.— Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions, percentage who transfe

by spring 1994, by student characteristics and for various definitions of potential transfer—Continued

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

All degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic students or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Gender

Male 26.1 36.3 35.0 35.3 39.3 39.3 37.0 4Female 24.7 35.1 36.4 37.7 36.2 47.4 42.4 5

— Too few cases for a reliable estimate.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.
68

Table C6.—Standard errors for table C5: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year ins

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by student characteristics and for various definitions of pot

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

All degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic students or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Age

18 or below 3.02 3.35 3.74 3.39 3.49 4.24 3.87 19 through 21 3.24 4.03 4.36 4.72 5.04 6.03 5.05 

22 or above 2.15 4.37 4.65 3.68 4.20 9.08 7.08 

Socioeconomic quartile

Lowest quartile 2.44 4.85 6.21 4.89 4.57 7.85 5.09 

Lower middle 2.84 4.35 4.29 4.58 4.74 8.26 8.38 Upper middle 2.95 4.00 4.10 4.11 3.98 5.07 5.47 Highest quartile 3.50 4.08 3.90 4.29 4.10 4.98 4.96 

First-generation college status

First generation 2.41 3.64 4.14 3.69 3.73 5.02 5.41 Not first generation 2.79 3.43 3.53 3.48 3.55 4.54 4.29 

Race/ethnicity

White, non-Hispanic 2.04 2.63 2.89 2.79 2.71 3.65 3.79 Black, non-Hispanic 4.42 5.03 — —— — — Hispanic 5.13 6.94 6.48 7.55 5.95 ——Asian/Pacific Islander — — — —— — — American Indian/

Alaskan Native — — — —— — — 

Region of institution

Northeast 3.82 4.74 5.21 6.55 5.13 6.25 5.29 Midwest 4.61 5.49 5.83 5.05 5.54 6.83 8.13 South 3.63 4.60 4.87 4.66 4.70 7.71 5.28 West 3.53 4.45 4.94 4.77 5.08 5.32 6.90 
69

Table C6.—Standard errors for table C5: Among 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year ins

transferred to 4-year institutions by spring 1994, by student characteristics and for various definitions of poten

Pursuing

academic 

major or 

Expected Enrolled taking 

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses Enrolled Ta

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward for 12 co

All degree academic continuously year bachelor’s or more tow

Characteristic students or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both credit hours bach

Gender

Male 2.69 3.32 3.79 3.84 3.80 4.41 4.47 Female 2.27 3.01 3.19 3.13 2.90 4.49 4.24 

— Too few cases for a reliable estimate.NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.
70

Table C7.—Percentage of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-year institutions meeting eac

transfer, by whether they met less restrictive definitions

Pursuing

academic

major or

Expected Enrolled taking

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses E

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward f

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s o

Potential transfer definition or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both cre

Enrolled in an academic program 81.7Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 78.6 70.8Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 76.3 73.2 73.4Pursuing academic major or taking courses

toward bachelor’s or both 89.1 88.5 75.7 81.7

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours 80.4 73.7 82.5 75.0 52.2Taking courses toward bachelor’s 94.3 91.3 69.0 78.9 100.0 Pursuing academic major and taking courses

toward bachelor’s 98.1 93.8 84.7 87.9 100.0 

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment). Table reads: Am

who indicated that they were enrolled in an academic program, 81.7 percent indicated that they expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or highe

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students LongitudinaData Analysis System.
71

Table C8.—Standard errors for table C7: Percentage of 1989–90 beginning postsecondary students enrolled at public 2-

each definition of potential transfer, by whether they met less restrictive definitions

Pursuing

academic

major or

Expected Enrolled taking

 to complete Enrolled anytime in courses E

bachelor’s in an Enrolled academic toward f

degree academic continuously year bachelor’s o

Potential transfer definition or higher program in 1989–90 1990–91 or both cre

Enrolled in an academic program 2.12Enrolled continuously in 1989–90 2.24 2.46Enrolled anytime in academic year 1990–91 2.17 2.52 3.01Pursuing academic major or taking courses

toward bachelor’s or both 2.31 2.33 3.8 2.45

Enrolled for 12 or more credit hours 2.76 3.00 2.55 3.10 3.37Taking courses toward bachelor’s 1.87 3.06 5.20 3.37 0.00 Pursuing academic major and taking courses

toward bachelor’s 1.85 3.09 5.77 4.30 0.01 

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, variables are as of 1989–90 (base year interview, first term of postsecondary enrollment).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudina

Data Analysis System.