Primary Estimate Low Estimate

7% 167 150

3% 205 182

CO2 At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 9.02 8.49

CO2 At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 35.4 33.3

CO2 At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 55.9 52.5

CO2 At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 108.0 101.5

7% 1.74 1.65

3% 2.14 2.02

7% plus CO2 range 178 to 277 160 to 253

7% 204 185

3% 243 217

3% plus CO2 range 216 to 315 193 to 286

7% 20.32 23.39

3% 21.59 25.48

7% plus CO2 range 157 to 256 137 to 230

7% 184 162

3% 221 192

3% plus CO2 range 195 to 294 167 to 260

0 65

The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the 

Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition,

incremental product costs reflect a declining trend (default learning rate) for product prices in the Primary Estimate,

constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices in the Low Estimate, and a declining trend (high learning rate)

in the High Estimate.

Total

TSL 3

Discount Rate Annualized (million 2010$/year)

Benefits

Operating Cost Savings

NOx At 2,537 2010$/ton

Total

Costs

Incremental Product Costs

Net Benefits/Costs
High Estimate

185 31

229 1

9.55 6

37.6 7

59.3 8

114.6 9

1.82 44

2.26 14

196 to 301

224

269

241 to 346

20.70 30

22.03 0

175 to 280

203

247

219 to 324

130

ng starts from the AEO2010

espectively. In addition,

ct prices in the Primary Estimate,

clining trend (high learning rate)

million 2010$/year)
National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Defau

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.21

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.12

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.04

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 2.01

NPV 1.97

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 15.70

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 69.13

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 346.34

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 583.69

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1056.28

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 12.77

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 3.71

At 2,537 2010$/ton 20.92

At 4,623 2010$/ton 38.12

NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr) 2.33

National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Defau

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.21

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.12

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.03

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 1.04

NPV 1.01

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 15.70

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 69.13

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 346.34

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 583.69

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1056.28

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 12.77

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 1.91

At 2,537 2010$/ton 10.75

At 4,623 2010$/ton 19.59

NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) 1.37
National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Con

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.19

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.11

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.05

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 1.79

NPV 1.73

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 14.81

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 65.09

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 325.41

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 548.16

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 992.53

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 12.05

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 3.50

At 2,537 2010$/ton 19.75

At 4,623 2010$/ton 35.99

NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr) 2.08

National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Con

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.19

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.11

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.03

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 0.93

NPV 0.90

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 14.81

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 65.09

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 325.41

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 548.16

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 992.53

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 12.05

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 1.82

At 2,537 2010$/ton 10.24

At 4,623 2010$/ton 18.65
NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) 1.24

National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Hig

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.22

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.13

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.04

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 2.24

NPV 2.20

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 16.60

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 73.18

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 367.25

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 619.17

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1120.00

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 13.50

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 3.92

At 2,537 2010$/ton 22.10

At 4,623 2010$/ton 40.27

NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr) 2.59

National Impact Summary (TSL 1, AEO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Hig

PC1

Results presented for CSL 1

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.22

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.13

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.03

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 1.14

NPV 1.12

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 16.60

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 73.18

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 367.25

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 619.17

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 1120.00
NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 13.50

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 2.00

At 2,537 2010$/ton 11.27

At 4,623 2010$/ton 20.54

NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr) 1.50
% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, L

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.21 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.12 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.04 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.02 2.03 0.10 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.02 1.98 0.10 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.14 15.84 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.60 69.74 4.54 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

3.03 349.37 17.82 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

5.11 588.79 28.13 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

9.24 1065.52 54.36 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%

NOx Emission Savings

0.11 12.88 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

0.03 3.74 0.19 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.18 21.10 1.08 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.33 38.46 1.96 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

0.02 2.35 0.120 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, L

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.21 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.12 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.03 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.01 1.04 0.08 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.01 1.02 0.08 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.14 15.84 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.60 69.74 4.54 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

3.03 349.37 17.82 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

5.11 588.79 28.13 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

9.24 1065.52 54.36 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%

NOx Emission Savings

0.11 12.88 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

0.02 1.92 0.16 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.09 10.84 0.87 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.17 19.76 1.59 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

0.01 1.38 0.101 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, 

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.20 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.12 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.05 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.02 1.80 0.09 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.02 1.75 0.09 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.13 14.94 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.57 65.66 4.27 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

2.85 328.26 16.75 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

4.80 552.95 26.42 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

8.68 1001.22 51.08 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%

NOx Emission Savings

0.11 12.15 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

0.03 3.53 0.18 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.17 19.92 1.02 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.31 36.31 1.85 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

0.02 2.10 0.107 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, 

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.20 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.12 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.03 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.01 0.94 0.08 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.01 0.91 0.07 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.13 14.94 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.57 65.66 4.27 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

2.85 328.26 16.75 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

4.80 552.95 26.42 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

8.68 1001.22 51.08 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%

NOx Emission Savings

0.11 12.15 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

0.02 1.83 0.15 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.09 10.33 0.83 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.16 18.82 1.52 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton
0.01 1.25 0.091 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)

, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.22 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.13 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.04 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.02 2.26 0.12 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.02 2.22 0.11 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.15 16.74 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.64 73.82 4.80 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

3.21 370.47 18.90 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

5.42 624.59 29.84 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

9.80 1129.80 57.64 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%

NOx Emission Savings

0.12 13.62 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

0.03 3.95 0.20 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.19 22.29 1.14 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.35 40.62 2.07 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

0.02 2.61 0.133 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 2, AEO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate

PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

1 Results presented for CSL

0.00 0.22 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.00 0.13 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.00 0.03 0.00 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

0.01 1.15 0.09 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

0.01 1.13 0.09 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

0.15 16.74 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

0.64 73.82 4.80 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t 5%

3.21 370.47 18.90 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t 3%

5.42 624.59 29.84 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5%

9.80 1129.80 57.64 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t 3%
NOx Emission Savings

0.12 13.62- kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

0.02 2.02 0.16 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

0.10 11.37 0.92 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

0.18 20.72 1.67 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

0.01 1.51 0.111 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
0 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Dis

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.30 0.00 0.30 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.17 0.00 0.18 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

2.89 0.04 2.93 0.15 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

2.75 0.03 2.78 0.14 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

22.57 0.31 22.88 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

99.40 1.36 100.76 6.55 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

497.96 6.81 504.77 25.75 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

839.21 11.47 850.69 40.64 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1518.70 20.76 1539.46 78.54 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

18.36 0.25 18.61 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

5.34 0.07 5.41 0.28 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

30.08 0.41 30.49 1.56 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

54.82 0.75 55.56 2.83 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

3.28 0.04 3.31 0.169 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

0 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 7% Dis

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.30 0.00 0.30 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.17 0.00 0.18 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.08 0.00 0.09 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

1.49 0.02 1.51 0.12 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

1.41 0.02 1.42 0.11 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

22.57 0.31 22.88 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

99.40 1.36 100.76 6.55 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

497.96 6.81 504.77 25.75 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

839.21 11.47 850.69 40.64 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1518.70 20.76 1539.46 78.54 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

18.36 0.25 18.61 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

2.74 0.04 2.78 0.22 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

15.46 0.21 15.67 1.26 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

28.17 0.39 28.55 2.30 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

1.92 0.02 1.94 0.141 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
0 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 3% D

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.28 0.00 0.28 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.16 0.00 0.17 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.16 0.01 0.17 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

2.56 0.04 2.60 0.13 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

2.40 0.03 2.43 0.12 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

21.30 0.29 21.59 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

93.59 1.28 94.87 6.17 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

467.86 6.40 474.26 24.20 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

788.12 10.78 798.89 38.17 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1427.02 19.51 1446.53 73.80 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

17.32 0.24 17.56 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

5.04 0.07 5.11 0.26 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

28.40 0.39 28.79 1.47 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

51.75 0.71 52.45 2.68 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

2.90 0.03 2.93 0.150 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

0 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 7% D

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.28 0.00 0.28 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.16 0.00 0.17 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.09 0.01 0.10 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

1.34 0.02 1.36 0.11 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

1.24 0.01 1.26 0.10 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

21.30 0.29 21.59 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

93.59 1.28 94.87 6.17 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

467.86 6.40 474.26 24.20 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

788.12 10.78 798.89 38.17 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1427.02 19.51 1446.53 73.80 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

17.32 0.24 17.56 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

2.61 0.04 2.65 0.21 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

14.72 0.20 14.92 1.20 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

26.82 0.37 27.19 2.19 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton
1.73 0.02 1.75 0.127 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)

0 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 High Growth, 3% 

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.31 0.00 0.32 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.18 0.00 0.18 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.14 0.01 0.15 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

3.22 0.04 3.27 0.17 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

3.08 0.04 3.12 0.16 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

23.86 0.33 24.19 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

105.22 1.44 106.66 6.94 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

528.04 7.22 535.26 27.31 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

890.24 12.17 902.41 43.12 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1610.32 22.02 1632.34 83.28 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

19.41 0.27 19.68 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

5.64 0.08 5.71 0.29 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

31.78 0.43 32.21 1.64 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

57.90 0.79 58.69 2.99 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

3.64 0.04 3.68 0.188 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

0 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 High Growth, 7% 

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

2 2 Results presented for CSL

0.31 0.00 0.32 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.18 0.00 0.18 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.08 0.00 0.09 0.01 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

1.64 0.02 1.67 0.13 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

1.56 0.02 1.58 0.13 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

23.86 0.33 24.19 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

105.22 1.44 106.66 6.94 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

528.04 7.22 535.26 27.31 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

890.24 12.17 902.41 43.12 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

1610.32 22.02 1632.34 83.28 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t
NOx Emission Savings

19.41 0.27 19.68- kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

2.88 0.04 2.91 0.23 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

16.21 0.22 16.43 1.32 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

29.54 0.40 29.94 2.41 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

2.11 0.02 2.13 0.156 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
SL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Ref

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.41 0.01 0.41 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.24 0.00 0.24 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.39 0.03 0.42 0.02 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

3.97 0.05 4.02 0.20 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

3.58 0.02 3.59 0.18 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

31.08 0.39 31.48 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 136.88 1.73 138.61 9.02 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 685.69 8.66 694.35 35.43 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1155.60 14.59 1170.19 55.91 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 2091.27 26.40 2117.67 108.04 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

25.29 0.32 25.60 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

7.35 0.09 7.44 0.38 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

41.42 0.52 41.95 2.14 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

75.49 0.95 76.44 3.90 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

4.31 0.03 4.33 0.221 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

SL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Ref

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.41 0.01 0.41 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.24 0.00 0.24 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.23 0.02 0.25 0.02 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

2.04 0.03 2.07 0.17 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

1.81 0.01 1.82 0.15 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

31.08 0.39 31.48 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 136.88 1.73 138.61 9.02 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 685.69 8.66 694.35 35.43 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1155.60 14.59 1170.19 55.91 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 2091.27 26.40 2117.67 108.04 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

25.29 0.32 25.60 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

3.78 0.05 3.82 0.31 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

21.29 0.27 21.56 1.74 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

38.79 0.49 39.28 3.17 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

2.52 0.01 2.53 0.184 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
SL 3, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Low 

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.38 0.00 0.39 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.23 0.00 0.23 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.46 0.04 0.50 0.03 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

3.53 0.04 3.57 0.18 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

3.07 0.01 3.07 0.16 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

29.32 0.37 29.70 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 128.87 1.63 130.50 8.49 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 644.23 8.13 652.36 33.28 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1085.21 13.70 1098.91 52.50 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 1964.98 24.81 1989.78 101.52 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

23.85 0.30 24.16 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

6.94 0.09 7.02 0.36 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

39.10 0.49 39.60 2.02 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

71.26 0.90 72.16 3.68 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

3.75 0.01 3.76 0.192 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

SL 3, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Low 

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.38 0.00 0.39 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.23 0.00 0.23 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.27 0.02 0.29 0.02 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

1.84 0.02 1.86 0.15 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

1.57 0.00 1.57 0.13 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

29.32 0.37 29.70 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 128.87 1.63 130.50 8.49 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 644.23 8.13 652.36 33.28 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1085.21 13.70 1098.91 52.50 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 1964.98 24.81 1989.78 101.52 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

23.85 0.30 24.16 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

3.60 0.05 3.64 0.29 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

20.27 0.26 20.53 1.65 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

36.94 0.47 37.41 3.01 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton
2.24 0.01 2.25 0.162 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)

SL 3, AEO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Hig

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.43 0.01 0.44 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.25 0.00 0.25 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.40 0.03 0.43 0.02 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

4.43 0.06 4.49 0.23 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

4.03 0.02 4.05 0.21 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

32.86 0.42 33.28 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 144.90 1.83 146.73 9.55 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 727.13 9.18 736.31 37.57 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1225.89 15.48 1241.37 59.31 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 2217.49 28.00 2245.49 114.56 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t

NOx Emission Savings

26.73 0.34 27.07 - kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

7.76 0.10 7.86 0.40 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

43.76 0.55 44.31 2.26 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

79.74 1.01 80.74 4.12 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

4.80 0.03 4.83 0.247 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr)

SL 3, AEO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High) National Impact Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Hig

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

3 3 Results presented for CSL

0.43 0.01 0.44 - quad Energy Saving (2014 to 2043)

0.25 0.00 0.25 - quad Energy Savings discounted at 3%

0.24 0.02 0.26 0.02 billion $ Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost

2.26 0.03 2.29 0.18 billion $ Discounted Oper. Cost Saving

2.02 0.01 2.03 0.16 billion $ NPV

CO2 Emission Savings

32.86 0.42 33.28 - Mt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings

5% 144.90 1.83 146.73 9.55 million $ At 4.7 2007$/t

3% 727.13 9.18 736.31 37.57 million $ At 21.4 2007$/t

2.5% 1225.89 15.48 1241.37 59.31 million $ At 35.1 2007$/t

3% 2217.49 28.00 2245.49 114.56 million $ At 64.9 2007$/t
NOx Emission Savings

26.73 0.34 27.07- kt Physical emission savings

Monetized emission savings (7% dr)

3.96 0.05 4.01 0.32 million $ At 450 2010$/ton

22.32 0.28 22.61 1.82 million $ At 2,537 2010$/ton

40.68 0.51 41.19 3.32 million $ At 4,623 2010$/ton

2.77 0.02 2.79 0.203 billion $ NPV with Emission Savings (7% dr)
ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.62 0.01 0.63 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.36 0.01 0.37 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 1.53 0.02 1.55 0.08 billion $

per. Cost Saving 6.06 0.10 6.16 0.31 billion $

4.53 0.08 4.60 0.23 billion $

47.69 0.77 48.46 - Mt

mission savings

5% 209.97 3.38 213.35 13.88 million $

3% 1051.73 16.94 1068.67 54.52 million $

2.5% 1772.44 28.55 1800.99 86.05 million $

3% 3207.65 51.66 3259.32 166.29 million $

38.79 0.62 39.42 - kt

mission savings (3% dr)

11.27 0.18 11.45 0.58 million $

63.55 1.02 64.58 3.29 million $

115.81 1.87 117.68 6.00 million $

ssion Savings (3% dr) 5.64 0.10 5.74 0.293 billion $

ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Reference, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.62 0.01 0.63 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.36 0.01 0.37 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 0.91 0.01 0.92 0.07 billion $

per. Cost Saving 3.12 0.05 3.17 0.26 billion $

2.21 0.04 2.25 0.18 billion $

47.69 0.77 48.46 - Mt

mission savings

5% 209.97 3.38 213.35 13.88 million $

3% 1051.73 16.94 1068.67 54.52 million $

2.5% 1772.44 28.55 1800.99 86.05 million $

3% 3207.65 51.66 3259.32 166.29 million $

38.79 0.62 39.42 - kt

mission savings (7% dr)

5.80 0.09 5.89 0.47 million $

32.67 0.53 33.20 2.68 million $

59.54 0.96 60.50 4.88 million $

ssion Savings (7% dr) 3.29 0.06 3.35 0.238 billion $
ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.59 0.01 0.60 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.34 0.01 0.35 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 1.81 0.02 1.83 0.09 billion $

per. Cost Saving 5.38 0.09 5.47 0.28 billion $

3.57 0.06 3.64 0.19 billion $

44.99 0.72 45.71 - Mt

mission savings

5% 197.67 3.18 200.85 13.07 million $

3% 988.01 15.91 1003.93 51.22 million $

2.5% 1664.26 26.81 1691.07 80.80 million $

3% 3013.56 48.54 3062.10 156.23 million $

36.59 0.59 37.18 - kt

mission savings (3% dr)

10.64 0.17 10.81 0.55 million $

59.99 0.97 60.95 3.11 million $

109.31 1.76 111.07 5.67 million $

ssion Savings (3% dr) 4.62 0.08 4.70 0.240 billion $

ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 Low Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: Constant Prices)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.59 0.01 0.60 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.34 0.01 0.35 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 1.05 0.01 1.06 0.09 billion $

per. Cost Saving 2.81 0.05 2.86 0.23 billion $

1.76 0.03 1.79 0.14 billion $

44.99 0.72 45.71 - Mt

mission savings

5% 197.67 3.18 200.85 13.07 million $

3% 988.01 15.91 1003.93 51.22 million $

2.5% 1664.26 26.81 1691.07 80.80 million $

3% 3013.56 48.54 3062.10 156.23 million $

36.59 0.59 37.18 - kt

mission savings (7% dr)

5.52 0.09 5.61 0.45 million $

31.11 0.50 31.61 2.55 million $

56.69 0.91 57.60 4.64 million $
ssion Savings (7% dr) 2.78 0.05 2.83 0.198 billion $

ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 High Growth, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: High)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.66 0.01 0.67 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.38 0.01 0.39 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 1.56 0.02 1.58 0.08 billion $

per. Cost Saving 6.76 0.11 6.87 0.35 billion $

5.20 0.09 5.29 0.27 billion $

50.42 0.81 51.23 - Mt

mission savings

5% 222.30 3.58 225.88 14.69 million $

3% 1115.40 17.96 1133.36 57.82 million $

2.5% 1880.44 30.29 1910.73 91.29 million $

3% 3401.59 54.79 3456.38 176.34 million $

41.02 0.66 41.68 - kt

mission savings (3% dr)

11.91 0.19 12.10 0.62 million $

67.14 1.08 68.22 3.48 million $

122.34 1.97 124.31 6.34 million $

ssion Savings (3% dr) 6.38 0.11 6.49 0.331 billion $

ct Summary (TSL 4, AEO 2010 High Growth, 7% Discount Rate, Learning: High)

PC1 PC2 Total Annualized 

(30 years)

4 4

 (2014 to 2043) 0.66 0.01 0.67 - quad

s discounted at 3% 0.38 0.01 0.39 - quad

cremental Equipment Cost 0.93 0.01 0.94 0.08 billion $

per. Cost Saving 3.45 0.06 3.51 0.28 billion $

2.52 0.04 2.57 0.21 billion $

50.42 0.81 51.23 - Mt

mission savings

5% 222.30 3.58 225.88 14.69 million $

3% 1115.40 17.96 1133.36 57.82 million $

2.5% 1880.44 30.29 1910.73 91.29 million $

3% 3401.59 54.79 3456.38 176.34 million $
41.02 0.66 41.68

- kt

mission savings (7% dr)

6.08 0.10 6.18 0.50 million $

34.27 0.55 34.82 2.81 million $

62.44 1.01 63.45 5.11 million $

ssion Savings (7% dr) 3.67 0.06 3.74 0.267 billion $
Input and Summary

User Inputs: TSL Level = 3

Discounting future values:

Discount Rate for NPV Determination 3.0%

Discount Rate for Energy Savings 3.0% 1 2

Year to discount to 2011 TSL PC1 PC2

1 1 1

2 2 2

3 3 3

Market Impact 4 4 4

Economic Growth

Standards Level PC1 = 3

Price Trend Standards Level PC2 = 3

PC1

Level Standby Power UEC Installed 

Price

Market 

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ %

Baseline 4.00 34.8 $223 46% $223 $227 $221 $212

1 2.00 17.4 $224 35% $224 $227 $221 $212

2 1.50 13.0 $224 19% $224 $228 $222 $213

3 1.00 8.7 $225 0% $225 $229 $223 $214

4 0.02 0.2 $230 0% $230 $234 $228 $218

PC2

Level Standby Power UEC Installed 

Price

Market 

Share Default Low High MWO only

W kWh $ %

Baseline 4.50 39.1 $482 100% $482 $490 $477 $458

1 3.70 32.1 $482 0% $482 $490 $477 $458

2 2.70 23.5 $486 0% $486 $493 $481 $461

3 2.20 19.1 $496 0% $496 $504 $491 $471

4 0.04 0.3 $490 0% $490 $498 $485 $465

Base Case Efficiency Trend Base Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2007

2008 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2008

2009 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2009

2010 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2010

2011 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2011

2012 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2012

2013 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2013

2014 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2014

2015 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2015

2016 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2016

2017 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2017

2018 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2018

PC1

Map of CSLs by TSL

RP elasticity -0.34

Reference

Default
2019 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2019

2020 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2020

2021 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2021

2022 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2022

2023 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2023

2024 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2024

2025 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2025

2026 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2026

2027 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2027

2028 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2028

2029 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2029

2030 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2030

2031 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2031

2032 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2032

2033 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2033

2034 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2034

2035 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2035

2036 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2036

2037 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2037

2038 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2038

2039 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2039

2040 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2040

2041 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2041

2042 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2042

2043 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2043

Standards Case Efficiency Trend Standards Case Efficiency Trend

Design # 0 1 2 3 4 Total Design #

2007 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2007

2008 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2008

2009 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2009

2010 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2010

2011 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2011

2012 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2012

2013 46% 35% 19% 0% 0% 100% 2013

2014 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2014

2015 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2015

2016 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2016

2017 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2017

2018 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2018

2019 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2019

2020 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2020

2021 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2021

2022 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2022

2023 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2023

2024 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2024

2025 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2025

2026 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2026

2027 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2027

2028 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2028

2029 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2029

2030 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2030

2031 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2031

2032 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2032

2033 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2033

2034 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2034

2035 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2035

2036 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2036

2037 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2037

PC1
2038 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2038

2039 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2039

2040 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2040

2041 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2041

2042 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2042

2043 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 2043

Base Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC1

Standby Hhld

Power UEC Price Income

kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $

2007 2.83 2007 25 2007 $52,162 2007

2008 2.83 2008 25 2008 $52,508 2008

2009 2.83 2009 25 2009 $53,474 2009

2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076 $53,214 2010

2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056 $54,116 2011

2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036 $55,231 2012

2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018 $56,210 2013

2014 2.83 2014 25 2014 $224 1.000 $57,450 2014

2015 2.83 2015 25 2015 $220 0.983 $58,495 2015

2016 2.83 2016 25 2016 $216 0.968 $59,385 2016

2017 2.83 2017 25 2017 $213 0.953 $60,225 2017

2018 2.83 2018 25 2018 $210 0.939 $61,301 2018

2019 2.83 2019 25 2019 $207 0.926 $62,543 2019

2020 2.83 2020 25 2020 $204 0.912 $63,657 2020

2021 2.83 2021 25 2021 $201 0.899 $64,712 2021

2022 2.83 2022 25 2022 $198 0.886 $65,833 2022

2023 2.83 2023 25 2023 $195 0.873 $67,038 2023

2024 2.83 2024 25 2024 $192 0.861 $68,267 2024

2025 2.83 2025 25 2025 $190 0.849 $69,513 2025

2026 2.83 2026 25 2026 $187 0.838 $70,762 2026

2027 2.83 2027 25 2027 $185 0.828 $71,915 2027

2028 2.83 2028 25 2028 $183 0.818 $73,052 2028

2029 2.83 2029 25 2029 $181 0.808 $74,119 2029

2030 2.83 2030 25 2030 $178 0.798 $75,135 2030

2031 2.83 2031 25 2031 $176 0.789 $76,391 2031

2032 2.83 2032 25 2032 $174 0.779 $77,669 2032

2033 2.83 2033 25 2033 $172 0.770 $78,963 2033

2034 2.83 2034 25 2034 $170 0.761 $80,267 2034

2035 2.83 2035 25 2035 $168 0.753 $81,577 2035

2036 2.83 2036 25 2036 $166 0.745 $82,893 2036

2037 2.83 2037 25 2037 $165 0.737 $84,215 2037

2038 2.83 2038 25 2038 $163 0.729 $85,555 2038

2039 2.83 2039 25 2039 $161 0.721 $86,918 2039

2040 2.83 2040 25 2040 $160 0.714 $88,314 2040

2041 2.83 2041 25 2041 $158 0.706 $89,752 2041

2042 2.83 2042 25 2042 $156 0.699 $89,752 2042

2043 2.83 2043 25 2043 $155 0.692 $89,752 2043

Base Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC2

Standby Hhld

Power UEC Price Income

kWh/yr kWh/yr $ $

2007 4.50 2007 39 2007 $52,162 2007

2008 4.50 2008 39 2008 $52,508 2008

2009 4.50 2009 39 2009 $53,474 2009

2010 4.50 2010 39 2010 $519 1.076 $53,214 2010

2011 4.50 2011 39 2011 $509 1.056 $54,116 2011

2012 4.50 2012 39 2012 $500 1.036 $55,231 2012

2013 4.50 2013 39 2013 $491 1.018 $56,210 2013

2014 4.50 2014 39 2014 $482 1.000 $57,450 2014

Price Trend

Price Trend
2015 4.50 2015 39 2015 $474 0.983 $58,495 2015

2016 4.50 2016 39 2016 $467 0.968 $59,385 2016

2017 4.50 2017 39 2017 $460 0.953 $60,225 2017

2018 4.50 2018 39 2018 $453 0.939 $61,301 2018

2019 4.50 2019 39 2019 $446 0.926 $62,543 2019

2020 4.50 2020 39 2020 $440 0.912 $63,657 2020

2021 4.50 2021 39 2021 $433 0.899 $64,712 2021

2022 4.50 2022 39 2022 $427 0.886 $65,833 2022

2023 4.50 2023 39 2023 $421 0.873 $67,038 2023

2024 4.50 2024 39 2024 $415 0.861 $68,267 2024

2025 4.50 2025 39 2025 $410 0.849 $69,513 2025

2026 4.50 2026 39 2026 $404 0.838 $70,762 2026

2027 4.50 2027 39 2027 $399 0.828 $71,915 2027

2028 4.50 2028 39 2028 $394 0.818 $73,052 2028

2029 4.50 2029 39 2029 $390 0.808 $74,119 2029

2030 4.50 2030 39 2030 $385 0.798 $75,135 2030

2031 4.50 2031 39 2031 $380 0.789 $76,391 2031

2032 4.50 2032 39 2032 $376 0.779 $77,669 2032

2033 4.50 2033 39 2033 $371 0.770 $78,963 2033

2034 4.50 2034 39 2034 $367 0.761 $80,267 2034

2035 4.50 2035 39 2035 $363 0.753 $81,577 2035

2036 4.50 2036 39 2036 $359 0.745 $82,893 2036

2037 4.50 2037 39 2037 $355 0.737 $84,215 2037

2038 4.50 2038 39 2038 $351 0.729 $85,555 2038

2039 4.50 2039 39 2039 $348 0.721 $86,918 2039

2040 4.50 2040 39 2040 $344 0.714 $88,314 2040

2041 4.50 2041 39 2041 $341 0.706 $89,752 2041

2042 4.50 2042 39 2042 $337 0.699 $89,752 2042

2043 4.50 2043 39 2043 $334 0.692 $89,752 2043
National Impact Summary (TSL 3, AEO 2010 Reference, 3% Discount Rate, Learning: Default)

PC1 PC2

Results presented for CSL 3 3

Energy Saving (2014 to 2043) 0.41 0.01

Energy Savings discounted at 3% 0.24 0.00

Discounted Incremental Equipment Cost 0.39 0.03

Discounted Oper. Cost Saving 3.97 0.05

NPV 3.58 0.02

CO2 Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 31.08 0.39

Monetized emission savings

At 4.7 2007$/t 5% 136.88 1.73

At 21.4 2007$/t 3% 685.69 8.66

At 35.1 2007$/t 2.5% 1155.60 14.59

At 64.9 2007$/t 3% 2091.27 26.40

NOx Emission Savings

Physical emission savings 25.29 0.32

Monetized emission savings (3% dr)

At 450 2010$/ton 7.35 0.09

At 2,537 2010$/ton 41.42 0.52

At 4,623 2010$/ton 75.49 0.95

NPV with Emission Savings (3% dr) 4.31 0.03

AEO Chained Constant 

Prices

$228 $236

$228 $236 CO2 NOx CO2 NOx CO2 NOx

$229 $237 15.84 12.88 29.46 23.09 15.84 12.88

$230 $238 22.88 18.61 42.53 33.34 22.88 18.61

$235 $243 31.48 25.60 58.40 45.78 31.48 25.60

48.46 39.42 89.46 70.12 48.46 39.42

TSL 3

AEO Chained Constant 

Prices

$492 $509

$492 $509

$495 $513

$506 $524

$500 $517

Base Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Emission Savings Adjustment

Current results Pre-ajustment results NEMS results

PC2
100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Standards Case Efficiency Trend

0 1 2 3 4 Total

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

PC2
0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

Standards Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC1

TC/Income Standby

Power UEC Price

kWh/yr kWh/yr $

0.000 2007 2.83 2007 25 2007

0.000 2008 2.83 2008 25 2008

0.000 2009 2.83 2009 25 2009

0.005 2010 2.83 2010 25 2010 $240 1.076

0.004 2011 2.83 2011 25 2011 $236 1.056

0.004 2012 2.83 2012 25 2012 $232 1.036

0.004 2013 2.83 2013 25 2013 $228 1.018

0.004 2014 1.00 2014 9 2014 $225 1.000

0.004 2015 1.00 2015 9 2015 $221 0.983

0.004 2016 1.00 2016 9 2016 $218 0.968

0.004 2017 1.00 2017 9 2017 $215 0.953

0.003 2018 1.00 2018 9 2018 $212 0.939

0.003 2019 1.00 2019 9 2019 $208 0.926

0.003 2020 1.00 2020 9 2020 $205 0.912

0.003 2021 1.00 2021 9 2021 $202 0.899

0.003 2022 1.00 2022 9 2022 $199 0.886

0.003 2023 1.00 2023 9 2023 $197 0.873

0.003 2024 1.00 2024 9 2024 $194 0.861

0.003 2025 1.00 2025 9 2025 $191 0.849

0.003 2026 1.00 2026 9 2026 $189 0.838

0.003 2027 1.00 2027 9 2027 $186 0.828

0.003 2028 1.00 2028 9 2028 $184 0.818

0.002 2029 1.00 2029 9 2029 $182 0.808

0.002 2030 1.00 2030 9 2030 $180 0.798

0.002 2031 1.00 2031 9 2031 $178 0.789

0.002 2032 1.00 2032 9 2032 $176 0.779

0.002 2033 1.00 2033 9 2033 $173 0.770

0.002 2034 1.00 2034 9 2034 $171 0.761

0.002 2035 1.00 2035 9 2035 $170 0.753

0.002 2036 1.00 2036 9 2036 $168 0.745

0.002 2037 1.00 2037 9 2037 $166 0.737

0.002 2038 1.00 2038 9 2038 $164 0.729

0.002 2039 1.00 2039 9 2039 $162 0.721

0.002 2040 1.00 2040 9 2040 $161 0.714

0.002 2041 1.00 2041 9 2041 $159 0.706

0.002 2042 1.00 2042 9 2042 $157 0.699

0.002 2043 1.00 2043 9 2043 $156 0.692

Standards Case Weighted Average UEC and Price - PC2

TC/Income Standby

Power UEC Price

kWh/yr kWh/yr $

0.000 2007 4.50 2007 39 2007

0.000 2008 4.50 2008 39 2008

0.000 2009 4.50 2009 39 2009

0.010 2010 4.50 2010 39 2010 $519 1.076

0.009 2011 4.50 2011 39 2011 $509 1.056

0.009 2012 4.50 2012 39 2012 $500 1.036

0.009 2013 4.50 2013 39 2013 $491 1.018

0.008 2014 2.20 2014 19 2014 $496 1.000

Price Trend

Price Trend
0.008 2015 2.20 2015 19 2015 $488 0.983

0.008 2016 2.20 2016 19 2016 $480 0.968

0.008 2017 2.20 2017 19 2017 $473 0.953

0.007 2018 2.20 2018 19 2018 $466 0.939

0.007 2019 2.20 2019 19 2019 $459 0.926

0.007 2020 2.20 2020 19 2020 $453 0.912

0.007 2021 2.20 2021 19 2021 $446 0.899

0.006 2022 2.20 2022 19 2022 $439 0.886

0.006 2023 2.20 2023 19 2023 $433 0.873

0.006 2024 2.20 2024 19 2024 $427 0.861

0.006 2025 2.20 2025 19 2025 $421 0.849

0.006 2026 2.20 2026 19 2026 $416 0.838

0.006 2027 2.20 2027 19 2027 $411 0.828

0.005 2028 2.20 2028 19 2028 $406 0.818

0.005 2029 2.20 2029 19 2029 $401 0.808

0.005 2030 2.20 2030 19 2030 $396 0.798

0.005 2031 2.20 2031 19 2031 $391 0.789

0.005 2032 2.20 2032 19 2032 $387 0.779

0.005 2033 2.20 2033 19 2033 $382 0.770

0.005 2034 2.20 2034 19 2034 $378 0.761

0.004 2035 2.20 2035 19 2035 $373 0.753

0.004 2036 2.20 2036 19 2036 $369 0.745

0.004 2037 2.20 2037 19 2037 $365 0.737

0.004 2038 2.20 2038 19 2038 $362 0.729

0.004 2039 2.20 2039 19 2039 $358 0.721

0.004 2040 2.20 2040 19 2040 $354 0.714

0.004 2041 2.20 2041 19 2041 $350 0.706

0.004 2042 2.20 2042 19 2042 $347 0.699

0.004 2043 2.20 2043 19 2043 $343 0.692
nt Rate, Learning: Default)

Total Annualized 

(30 years)

0.41 - quad

0.24 - quad

0.42 0.02 billion $

4.02 0.20 billion $

3.59 0.18 billion $

31.48 - Mt

138.61 9.02 million $

694.35 35.43 million $

1170.19 55.91 million $

2117.67 108.04 million $

25.60 - kt

7.44 0.38 million $

41.95 2.14 million $

76.44 3.90 million $

4.33 0.221 billion $

CO2 NOx

0.538 0.558

0.538 0.558

0.539 0.559

0.542 0.562

0.539 0.559

Adj Factors

Hhld TC/Income RP Elast

Income Drop $

$52,162 2007 0.000 2007

$52,508 2008 0.000 2008

$53,474 2009 0.000 2009

$53,214 2010 0.005 2010

$54,116 2011 0.004 2011

$55,231 2012 0.004 2012

$56,210 2013 0.004 2013

$57,450 2014 0.004 2014 1.00

$58,495 2015 0.004 2015 0.78

$59,385 2016 0.004 2016 0.63

$60,225 2017 0.004 2017 0.54

$61,301 2018 0.003 2018 0.46

$62,543 2019 0.003 2019 0.44

$63,657 2020 0.003 2020 0.42

$64,712 2021 0.003 2021 0.39

$65,833 2022 0.003 2022 0.37

$67,038 2023 0.003 2023 0.35

$68,267 2024 0.003 2024 0.35

$69,513 2025 0.003 2025 0.35

$70,762 2026 0.003 2026 0.35

$71,915 2027 0.003 2027 0.34

$73,052 2028 0.003 2028 0.34

$74,119 2029 0.002 2029 0.34

$75,135 2030 0.002 2030 0.34

$76,391 2031 0.002 2031 0.34

$77,669 2032 0.002 2032 0.34

$78,963 2033 0.002 2033 0.33

$80,267 2034 0.002 2034 0.33

$81,577 2035 0.002 2035 0.33

$82,893 2036 0.002 2036 0.33

$84,215 2037 0.002 2037 0.33

$85,555 2038 0.002 2038 0.33

$86,918 2039 0.002 2039 0.33

$88,314 2040 0.002 2040 0.33

$89,752 2041 0.002 2041 0.33

$89,752 2042 0.002 2042 0.33

$89,752 2043 0.002 2043 0.33

Hhld TC/Income RP Elast

Income Drop $

$52,162 2007 0.000 2007

$52,508 2008 0.000 2008

$53,474 2009 0.000 2009

$53,214 2010 0.010 2010

$54,116 2011 0.009 2011

$55,231 2012 0.009 2012

$56,210 2013 0.009 2013

$57,450 2014 0.009 2014 1.00
$58,495 2015 0.008 2015 0.78

$59,385 2016 0.008 2016 0.63

$60,225 2017 0.008 2017 0.54

$61,301 2018 0.008 2018 0.46

$62,543 2019 0.007 2019 0.44

$63,657 2020 0.007 2020 0.42

$64,712 2021 0.007 2021 0.39

$65,833 2022 0.007 2022 0.37

$67,038 2023 0.006 2023 0.35

$68,267 2024 0.006 2024 0.35

$69,513 2025 0.006 2025 0.35

$70,762 2026 0.006 2026 0.35

$71,915 2027 0.006 2027 0.34

$73,052 2028 0.006 2028 0.34

$74,119 2029 0.005 2029 0.34

$75,135 2030 0.005 2030 0.34

$76,391 2031 0.005 2031 0.34

$77,669 2032 0.005 2032 0.34

$78,963 2033 0.005 2033 0.33

$80,267 2034 0.005 2034 0.33

$81,577 2035 0.005 2035 0.33

$82,893 2036 0.004 2036 0.33

$84,215 2037 0.004 2037 0.33

$85,555 2038 0.004 2038 0.33

$86,918 2039 0.004 2039 0.33

$88,314 2040 0.004 2040 0.33

$89,752 2041 0.004 2041 0.33

$89,752 2042 0.004 2042 0.33

$89,752 2043 0.004 2043 0.33



Historical Shipment

Historical Shipment for PC1

millions

1972 0.30

1973 0.42

1974 0.67

1975 0.99

1976 1.65

1977 2.04 Assumptions:

1978 2.36 Total Microwave Oven Market Share for New homes in 2005 90.3%

1979 2.65 % of Early Replacement 0.0%

1980 3.41 Growth in New Housing saturation 0.0%

1981 4.18 PC2 Shipments 1%

1982 3.85

1983 5.60

1984 8.63

1985 10.28

1986 11.76

1987 11.91

1988 10.38

1989 9.78

1990 7.69

1991 6.62

1992 7.19

1993 7.24

1994 8.57

1995 8.16

1996 8.77

1997 9.14

1998 10.37

1999 11.42

2000 12.64

2001 13.45

2002 13.31

2003 14.27

2004 15.53

2005 13.86

2006 13.69

2007 11.85

2008 11.34

2009 9.63

AHAM Shipments 2003-2010

AHAM Shipments, less 5.5% for exports

Estimated Shipments






Base Case - PC1

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1

Base Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million million million million

1972 0.294 0.294 0.000 0.000

1973 0.416 0.710 0.000 0.000

1974 0.667 1.377 0.000 0.000

1975 0.984 2.360 0.000 0.000

1976 1.636 3.995 0.001 0.001

1977 2.017 6.007 0.005 0.005

1978 2.339 8.330 0.016 0.016

1979 2.625 10.910 0.045 0.045

1980 3.374 14.179 0.106 0.106

1981 4.135 18.098 0.216 0.216

1982 3.807 21.516 0.389 0.389

1983 5.549 26.438 0.627 0.627

1984 8.540 34.050 0.928 0.928

1985 10.178 42.937 1.291 1.291

1986 11.638 52.875 1.700 1.700

1987 11.793 62.536 2.132 2.132

1988 10.275 70.228 2.583 2.583

1989 9.680 76.822 3.087 3.087

1990 7.616 80.731 3.707 3.707

1991 6.557 82.779 4.509 4.013

1992 7.118 84.337 5.560 5.259

1993 7.168 84.615 6.890 6.366

1994 8.488 84.741 8.362 8.067

1995 8.080 83.190 9.631 9.059

1996 8.683 81.529 10.344 9.697

1997 9.051 80.210 10.370 9.767

1998 10.261 80.652 9.820 9.629 0.000

1999 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 8.659 0.000

2000 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 7.698 0.000

2001 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 7.186 0.000

2002 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 6.855 0.000

2003 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 7.154 0.000

2004 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 7.541 0.000

2005 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 8.164 0.000

2006 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 8.353 0.000

2007 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 7.908 0.000

2008 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 10.084 0.000

2009 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 11.291 0.000

2010 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 94.6% 13.022 0.866

2011 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 94.6% 13.130 1.392

2012 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 94.6% 13.293 1.616

2013 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 94.6% 13.378 1.675

2014 15.004 129.003 13.815 0.0% 94.6% 13.311 1.693

2015 14.763 130.307 13.458 0.0% 94.6% 13.003 1.760

2016 14.228 131.675 12.860 0.0% 94.6% 12.400 1.828

2017 13.635 133.012 12.298 0.0% 94.6% 11.784 1.850

2018 13.430 134.370 12.072 0.0% 94.6% 11.555 1.875

2019 13.752 135.758 12.364 0.0% 94.6% 11.847 1.905

2020 14.463 137.110 13.111 0.0% 94.6% 12.557 1.906
2021 15.187 138.330 13.967 0.0% 94.6% 13.342 1.845

2022 15.727 139.511 14.546 0.0% 94.6% 13.929 1.798

2023 15.914 140.684 14.741 0.0% 94.6% 14.142 1.772

2024 15.850 141.862 14.672 0.0% 94.6% 14.086 1.763

2025 15.664 143.067 14.459 0.0% 94.6% 13.889 1.774

2026 15.376 144.239 14.204 0.0% 94.6% 13.610 1.767

2027 15.139 145.355 14.023 0.0% 94.6% 13.401 1.737

2028 15.079 146.405 14.029 0.0% 94.6% 13.386 1.693

2029 15.299 147.440 14.264 0.0% 94.6% 13.635 1.664

2030 15.729 148.500 14.669 0.0% 94.6% 14.066 1.664

2031 16.121 149.511 15.111 0.0% 94.6% 14.480 1.642

2032 16.408 150.463 15.456 0.0% 94.6% 14.804 1.603

2033 16.593 151.423 15.632 0.0% 94.6% 15.003 1.589

2034 16.618 152.398 15.643 0.0% 94.6% 15.027 1.591

2035 16.513 153.363 15.548 0.0% 94.6% 14.925 1.589

2036 16.387 154.322 15.428 0.0% 94.6% 14.798 1.589

2037 16.322 155.281 15.363 0.0% 94.6% 14.733 1.589

2038 16.367 156.239 15.408 0.0% 94.6% 14.778 1.589

2039 16.535 157.198 15.576 0.0% 94.6% 14.946 1.589

2040 16.788 158.157 15.829 0.0% 94.6% 15.199 1.589

2041 17.056 159.115 16.098 0.0% 94.6% 15.468 1.589

2042 17.274 160.074 16.316 0.0% 94.6% 15.685 1.589

2043 17.406 161.033 16.447 0.0% 94.6% 15.817 1.589

2044 17.452 161.991 16.493 0.0% 94.6% 15.863 1.589

2045 17.440 162.950 16.482 0.0% 94.6% 15.851 1.589

2046 17.417 163.909 16.459 0.0% 94.6% 15.829 1.589

2047 17.430 164.867 16.471 0.0% 94.6% 15.841 1.589

2048 17.506 165.826 16.547 0.0% 94.6% 15.917 1.589

2049 17.647 166.785 16.688 0.0% 94.6% 16.058 1.589

2050 17.831 167.744 16.872 0.0% 94.6% 16.242 1.589

2051 18.022 168.702 17.063 0.0% 94.6% 16.433 1.589

2052 18.184 169.661 17.226 0.0% 94.6% 16.595 1.589

2053 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589

2054 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589

2053 18.299 170.620 17.340 0.0% 94.6% 16.710 1.589

2054 18.366 171.578 17.407 0.0% 94.6% 16.777 1.589

2055 18.403 172.537 17.444 0.0% 94.6% 16.814 1.589

2056 18.436 173.496 17.477 0.0% 94.6% 16.847 1.589

2057 18.490 174.454 17.531 0.0% 94.6% 16.901 1.589

2058 18.579 175.413 17.621 0.0% 94.6% 16.990 1.589

2059 18.704 176.372 17.745 0.0% 94.6% 17.115 1.589

2060 18.851 177.331 17.892 0.0% 94.6% 17.262 1.589

2061 18.999 178.289 18.041 0.0% 94.6% 17.411 1.589

2062 19.132 179.248 18.173 0.0% 94.6% 17.543 1.589

2063 19.238 180.207 18.279 0.0% 94.6% 17.649 1.589

2064 19.318 181.165 18.360 0.0% 94.6% 17.729 1.589

2065 19.383 182.124 18.424 0.0% 94.6% 17.794 1.589

2066 19.446 183.083 18.488 0.0% 94.6% 17.857 1.589

2067 19.522 184.041 18.563 0.0% 94.6% 17.933 1.589

2068 19.618 185.000 18.659 0.0% 94.6% 18.029 1.589

2069 19.732 185.959 18.773 0.0% 94.6% 18.143 1.589

2070 19.858 186.918 18.899 0.0% 94.6% 18.269 1.589

nnual Shipments Standby Total Energy (site) Equipment Cost Oper Cost

Total 

Shipment Saturation Efficiency Elec Elec per Unit Total Fuel

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $ billion $

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6 5

10

15

20

25

Millions

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

7.908 110.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334

10.084 109.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352

11.291 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336

13.888 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0104 $240 3.340 0.325

14.522 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0105 $236 3.428 0.318

14.909 107.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0106 $232 3.454 0.334

15.054 107.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0107 $228 3.425 0.341

15.004 107.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0108 $224 3.355 0.345

14.763 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0109 $220 3.245 0.348

14.228 107.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0110 $216 3.078 0.354

13.635 107.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0111 $213 2.906 0.359

13.430 107.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0113 $210 2.820 0.363

13.752 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0114 $207 2.846 0.365

14.463 106.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0115 $204 2.950 0.371

0

5

1980
15.187 106.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0116 $201 3.052 0.376

15.727 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0117 $198 3.114 0.380

15.914 106.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0118 $195 3.106 0.385

15.850 105.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0119 $192 3.051 0.389

15.664 105.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0120 $190 2.974 0.392

15.376 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0121 $187 2.882 0.397

15.139 105.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0122 $185 2.802 0.402

15.079 105.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0123 $183 2.757 0.407

15.299 105.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $181 2.764 0.415

15.729 105.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0124 $178 2.807 0.422

16.121 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0125 $176 2.843 0.429

16.408 104.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0126 $174 2.859 0.436

16.593 104.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0127 $172 2.857 0.440

16.618 104.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0128 $170 2.829 0.446

16.513 104.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $168 2.780 0.452

16.387 104.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0129 $166 2.728 0.457

16.322 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0130 $165 2.688 0.463

16.367 104.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0131 $163 2.667 0.468

16.535 104.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0132 $161 2.666 0.474

16.788 104.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $160 2.679 0.480

17.056 103.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0133 $158 2.693 0.485

17.274 103.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0134 $156 2.700 0.491

17.406 103.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0135 $155 2.693 0.497

17.452 104.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0136 $155 2.700 0.503

17.440 104.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.698 0.509

17.417 105.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0137 $155 2.695 0.515

17.430 106.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0138 $155 2.697 0.521

17.506 106.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0139 $155 2.708 0.527

17.647 107.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0140 $155 2.730 0.533

17.831 108.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.759 0.539

18.022 108.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0141 $155 2.788 0.545

18.184 109.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0142 $155 2.813 0.551

18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558

18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564

18.299 109.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0143 $155 2.831 0.558

18.366 110.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0144 $155 2.842 0.564

18.403 111.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.847 0.570

18.436 111.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0145 $155 2.852 0.577

18.490 112.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0146 $155 2.861 0.583

18.579 113.0% 2.83 24.6 0.0147 $155 2.875 0.590

18.704 113.6% 2.83 24.6 0.0148 $155 2.894 0.597

18.851 114.2% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.917 0.603

18.999 114.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0149 $155 2.940 0.610

19.132 115.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0150 $155 2.960 0.617

19.238 116.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0151 $155 2.976 0.624

19.318 116.7% 2.83 24.6 0.0152 $155 2.989 0.631

19.383 117.3% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 2.999 0.638

19.446 117.9% 2.83 24.6 0.0153 $155 3.009 0.645

19.522 118.5% 2.83 24.6 0.0154 $155 3.020 0.652

19.618 119.1% 2.83 24.6 0.0155 $155 3.035 0.659

19.732 119.8% 2.83 24.6 0.0156 $155 3.053 0.666

19.858 120.4% 2.83 24.6 0.0157 $155 3.072 0.673

Shipment - Historical and Projected

Series1

Series2

AHAM Saturations

Year Million Percent

1982 21.4 25.6

1990 77.2 82.7

2001 94.6 90.7

2005 97.2 89.3

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Standards Case - PC1

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC1

Standards Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses MS Impact Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million % million million

1972 0.294

1973 0.416

1974 0.667

1975 0.984

1976 1.636

1977 2.017

1978 2.339

1979 2.625

1980 3.374 14.179

1981 4.135 18.098

1982 3.807 21.516

1983 5.549 26.438

1984 8.540 34.050

1985 10.178 42.937

1986 11.638 52.875 0.000

1987 11.793 62.536 2.132

1988 10.275 70.228 2.583

1989 9.680 76.822 3.087

1990 7.616 80.731 3.707 0.0% 0.000

1991 6.557 82.779 4.509 0.0% 0.000

1992 7.118 84.337 5.560 0.0% 0.000

1993 7.168 84.615 6.890 0.0% 0.000

1994 8.488 84.741 8.362 0.0% 0.000

1995 8.080 83.190 9.631 0.0% 0.000

1996 8.683 81.529 10.344 0.0% 0.000

1997 9.051 80.210 10.370 0.0% 0.000

1998 10.261 80.652 9.820 0.0% 0.000

1999 11.308 82.988 8.971 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2000 12.518 87.355 8.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2001 13.312 93.050 7.617 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2002 13.178 98.735 7.492 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2003 14.131 105.150 7.717 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2004 15.371 112.397 8.124 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2005 13.721 117.518 8.601 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2006 13.550 121.917 9.151 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2007 11.732 123.812 9.837 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.908 0.000

2008 11.227 124.369 10.669 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.084 0.000

2009 9.530 122.334 11.565 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.291 0.000

2010 13.888 123.819 12.403 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.022 0.866

2011 14.522 125.255 13.086 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.130 1.392

2012 14.909 126.594 13.571 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.293 1.616

2013 15.054 127.814 13.834 0.0% 93.7% 0.0% 13.378 1.675

2014 14.967 128.965 13.815 0.0% 93.5% -0.2% 13.278 1.689

2015 14.734 130.241 13.458 0.0% 93.5% -0.2% 12.978 1.757

2016 14.206 131.587 12.860 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 12.381 1.825

2017 13.616 132.906 12.298 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.768 1.848

2018 13.415 134.249 12.072 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.542 1.873

2019 13.736 135.622 12.363 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 11.833 1.903
2020 14.447 136.959 13.109 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 12.542 1.904

2021 15.168 138.164 13.963 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.325 1.843

2022 15.704 139.331 14.538 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.908 1.796

2023 15.886 140.490 14.727 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.116 1.770

2024 15.817 141.654 14.653 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.055 1.762

2025 15.628 142.845 14.437 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.855 1.773

2026 15.342 144.005 14.182 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.576 1.765

2027 15.106 145.108 14.003 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.370 1.736

2028 15.048 146.145 14.011 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.357 1.691

2029 15.268 147.167 14.247 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 13.606 1.663

2030 15.697 148.214 14.650 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.035 1.663

2031 16.086 149.211 15.089 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.446 1.640

2032 16.369 150.150 15.431 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.768 1.602

2033 16.551 151.096 15.604 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.963 1.588

2034 16.574 152.057 15.613 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.984 1.590

2035 16.467 153.010 15.515 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.880 1.588

2036 16.340 153.955 15.395 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.753 1.588

2037 16.276 154.900 15.330 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.688 1.588

2038 16.321 155.846 15.376 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.733 1.588

2039 16.488 156.791 15.543 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 14.901 1.588

2040 16.740 157.736 15.795 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.152 1.588

2041 17.006 158.681 16.061 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.418 1.588

2042 17.221 159.625 16.276 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.633 1.588

2043 17.350 160.570 16.405 0.0% 93.6% -0.1% 15.762 1.588

2044 0.000 144.121

2045 0.000 127.684

2046 0.000 111.272

2047 0.000 94.855

2048 0.000 78.412

2049 0.000 62.024

2050 0.000 46.003

2051 0.000 31.030

2052 0.000 18.180

2053 0.000 8.641

2052 0.000 18.180

2053 0.000 8.641

2054 0.000 3.015

2055 0.000 0.669

2056 0.000 0.077

2057 0.000 0.004

2058 0.000 0.000

2059 0.000 0.000

2060 0.000 0.000

2061 0.000 0.000

2062 0.000 0.000

2063 0.000 0.000

2064 0.000 0.000

2065 0.000 0.000

2066 0.000 0.000

2067 0.000 0.000

2068 0.000 0.000

2069 0.000 0.000

2070 0.000 0.000

UEC CumulativeTotal Energy (site) Incr. Equip. Cost Oper Cost delta UEC

Total 

Shipment Saturation Elec Shipment Impact

Shipment 

Impact Elec per Unit Total Fuel Elec

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $ billion $ kWh/yr

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 73.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 75.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000

0.000 77.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 79.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 81.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 83.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 85.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 87.2% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 89.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 91.5% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 93.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 96.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 98.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 100.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 103.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 105.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 108.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.00

7.908 110.1% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00

10.084 109.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.352 0.00

11.291 107.3% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0103 $0 0.000 0.336 0.00

13.888 107.4% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0104 $0 0.000 0.325 0.00

14.522 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0105 $0 0.000 0.318 0.00

14.909 107.8% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0106 $0 0.000 0.334 0.00

15.054 107.7% 24.6 0.000 0.000 0.0107 $0 0.000 0.341 0.00

14.967 107.5% 8.7 0.037 0.037 0.0100 $2 0.024 0.319 15.88

14.734 107.3% 8.7 0.028 0.066 0.0093 $2 0.024 0.296 15.88

14.206 107.2% 8.7 0.022 0.088 0.0087 $2 0.022 0.277 15.88

13.616 107.0% 8.7 0.018 0.106 0.0080 $2 0.021 0.258 15.88

13.415 106.9% 8.7 0.015 0.121 0.0074 $2 0.020 0.239 15.88

13.736 106.7% 8.7 0.015 0.136 0.0068 $2 0.021 0.218 15.88
14.447 106.5% 8.7 0.016 0.152 0.0062 $1 0.021 0.199 15.88

15.168 106.3% 8.7 0.019 0.168 0.0055 $1 0.022 0.179 15.88

15.704 106.1% 8.7 0.022 0.186 0.0050 $1 0.023 0.162 15.88

15.886 105.9% 8.7 0.027 0.205 0.0046 $1 0.023 0.149 15.88

15.817 105.8% 8.7 0.033 0.226 0.0043 $1 0.022 0.142 15.88

15.628 105.6% 8.7 0.036 0.246 0.0043 $1 0.022 0.139 15.88

15.342 105.5% 8.7 0.035 0.262 0.0043 $1 0.021 0.140 15.88

15.106 105.3% 8.7 0.032 0.274 0.0043 $1 0.020 0.142 15.88

15.048 105.1% 8.7 0.031 0.283 0.0043 $1 0.020 0.144 15.88

15.268 105.0% 8.7 0.031 0.294 0.0044 $1 0.020 0.146 15.88

15.697 104.9% 8.7 0.032 0.308 0.0044 $1 0.020 0.149 15.88

16.086 104.7% 8.7 0.035 0.323 0.0044 $1 0.021 0.151 15.88

16.369 104.6% 8.7 0.038 0.340 0.0045 $1 0.021 0.154 15.88

16.551 104.5% 8.7 0.042 0.358 0.0045 $1 0.021 0.155 15.88

16.574 104.3% 8.7 0.044 0.375 0.0045 $1 0.020 0.157 15.88

16.467 104.2% 8.7 0.046 0.392 0.0045 $1 0.020 0.159 15.88

16.340 104.1% 8.7 0.046 0.407 0.0046 $1 0.020 0.161 15.88

16.276 104.0% 8.7 0.046 0.421 0.0046 $1 0.019 0.163 15.88

16.321 103.9% 8.7 0.046 0.434 0.0046 $1 0.019 0.165 15.88

16.488 103.8% 8.7 0.046 0.447 0.0046 $1 0.019 0.167 15.88

16.740 103.7% 8.7 0.048 0.461 0.0047 $1 0.019 0.169 15.88

17.006 103.6% 8.7 0.050 0.477 0.0047 $1 0.020 0.171 15.88

17.221 103.5% 8.7 0.053 0.494 0.0047 $1 0.020 0.173 15.88

17.350 103.4% 8.7 0.056 0.511 0.0048 $1 0.019 0.175 15.88

8.7 17.452 17.922 0.0043 $1 0.000 0.158 15.88

8.7 17.440 35.320 0.0038 $1 0.000 0.141 15.88

8.7 17.417 52.693 0.0033 $1 0.000 0.124 15.88

8.7 17.430 70.070 0.0028 $1 0.000 0.106 15.88

8.7 17.506 87.479 0.0023 $1 0.000 0.088 15.88

8.7 17.647 104.883 0.0018 $1 0.000 0.070 15.88

8.7 17.831 122.109 0.0014 $1 0.000 0.052 15.88

8.7 18.022 138.784 0.0009 $1 0.000 0.035 15.88

8.7 18.184 154.330 0.0005 $1 0.000 0.021 15.88

8.7 18.299 168.020 0.0003 $1 0.000 0.010 15.88

8.7 18.184 154.330 0.0005 $1 0.000 0.021 15.88

8.7 18.299 168.020 0.0003 $1 0.000 0.010 15.88

8.7 18.366 179.158 0.0001 $1 0.000 0.003 15.88

8.7 18.403 187.343 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.001 15.88

8.7 18.436 192.690 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 18.490 195.844 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 18.579 196.875 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 18.704 197.953 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 18.851 199.075 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 18.999 200.220 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.132 201.361 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.238 202.478 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.318 203.558 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.383 204.607 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.446 205.640 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.522 206.676 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.618 207.731 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.732 208.812 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

8.7 19.858 209.917 0.0000 $1 0.000 0.000 15.88

Energy Saving

Energy

Savings

Oper. Cost 

Saving

Discount 

Factor (Nonmonetized)

Discounted 

Energy

Savings

Discount 

Factor 

(Monetary)

Incr. Equip. 

Cost

Oper. Cost 

Saving

quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $

Discounted Values

8

10

12

14

16

18

Millions

Shipment - Historical and Projected

0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000

0.002 0.026 0.915 0.002 0.915 0.022 0.024

0.005 0.051 0.888 0.004 0.888 0.021 0.046

0.007 0.076 0.863 0.006 0.863 0.019 0.066

0.009 0.100 0.837 0.007 0.837 0.018 0.084

0.010 0.124 0.813 0.008 0.813 0.017 0.101

0.011 0.147 0.789 0.009 0.789 0.016 0.116

0

2

4

6

8

10

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Millions

Base Case

Standards Case
0.013 0.172 0.766 0.010 0.766 0.016 0.131

0.014 0.196 0.744 0.011 0.744 0.016 0.146

0.016 0.218 0.722 0.011 0.722 0.016 0.157

0.015 0.235 0.701 0.011 0.701 0.016 0.165

0.015 0.246 0.681 0.010 0.681 0.015 0.168

0.015 0.252 0.661 0.010 0.661 0.014 0.167

0.014 0.256 0.642 0.009 0.642 0.013 0.164

0.015 0.259 0.623 0.009 0.623 0.013 0.162

0.015 0.263 0.605 0.009 0.605 0.012 0.159

0.015 0.268 0.587 0.009 0.587 0.012 0.157

0.015 0.272 0.570 0.008 0.570 0.012 0.155

0.015 0.277 0.554 0.008 0.554 0.011 0.153

0.015 0.281 0.538 0.008 0.538 0.011 0.151

0.015 0.284 0.522 0.008 0.522 0.011 0.148

0.015 0.288 0.507 0.008 0.507 0.010 0.146

0.015 0.291 0.492 0.008 0.492 0.010 0.143

0.015 0.295 0.478 0.007 0.478 0.009 0.141

0.016 0.298 0.464 0.007 0.464 0.009 0.138

0.016 0.302 0.450 0.007 0.450 0.009 0.136

0.016 0.306 0.437 0.007 0.437 0.008 0.134

0.016 0.309 0.424 0.007 0.424 0.008 0.131

0.016 0.313 0.412 0.007 0.412 0.008 0.129

0.016 0.317 0.400 0.006 0.400 0.008 0.127

0.016 0.320 0.388 0.006 0.388 0.008 0.124

0.014 0.289 0.377 0.005 0.377 0.000 0.109

0.013 0.258 0.366 0.005 0.366 0.000 0.094

0.011 0.226 0.355 0.004 0.355 0.000 0.080

0.010 0.194 0.345 0.003 0.345 0.000 0.067

0.008 0.161 0.335 0.003 0.335 0.000 0.054

0.006 0.128 0.325 0.002 0.325 0.000 0.042

0.005 0.096 0.316 0.001 0.316 0.000 0.030

0.003 0.065 0.307 0.001 0.307 0.000 0.020

0.002 0.038 0.298 0.001 0.298 0.000 0.011

0.001 0.018 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.005

0.002 0.038 0.298 0.001 0.298 0.000 0.011

0.001 0.018 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.005

0.000 0.006 0.281 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.002

0.000 0.001 0.272 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000

Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

Year CO2 Marg. 

Emiss. rate

NOx Marg. 

Emiss. rate

CO2 Price 

$/ton (1)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (2)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (3)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (4)

CO2 

reduction

CO2 Value 

(1)

CO2 Value 

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt 

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

million 2010$

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 0.18 0.90 4.03

2015 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 0.36 1.76 7.93

2016 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 0.53 2.56 11.62

2017 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 0.68 3.21 14.63

2018 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 0.77 3.61 16.57

2019 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 0.85 3.89 18.02
2020 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 0.96 4.40 20.21

2021 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 1.09 4.97 22.90

2022 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 1.19 5.37 24.75

2023 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 1.16 5.19 24.01

2024 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 1.17 5.12 24.07

2025 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 1.12 4.84 22.85

2026 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 1.10 4.69 22.23

2027 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 1.11 4.66 22.26

2028 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 1.12 4.62 22.19

2029 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 1.13 4.58 22.11

2030 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 1.13 4.53 22.09

2031 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 1.14 4.48 21.98

2032 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 1.15 4.42 21.93

2033 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 1.16 4.36 21.80

2034 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 1.16 4.30 21.73

2035 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 1.17 4.23 21.59

2036 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 1.18 4.17 21.50

2037 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 1.19 4.10 21.34

2038 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 1.19 4.02 21.18

2039 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 1.20 3.95 21.07

2040 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 1.21 3.88 20.90

2041 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 1.21 3.80 20.73

2042 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 1.22 3.73 20.55

2043 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 1.23 3.65 20.32

2044 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 1.10 3.19 17.97

2045 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 0.98 2.75 15.68

2046 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 0.85 2.33 13.42

2047 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 0.73 1.93 11.26

2048 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 0.60 1.55 9.17

2049 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 0.47 1.19 7.14

2050 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 0.35 0.86 5.20

2051 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 0.24 0.56 3.45

2052 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 0.14 0.32 1.99

2053 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 0.07 0.15 0.93

2054 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 0.02 0.05 0.32

2055 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 0.01 0.01 0.07

2056 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

2057 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2058 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 0.00 0.00 0.00

2059 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2060 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2061 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2062 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2063 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2064 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 0.00 0.00 0.00

2065 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2066 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2067 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2068 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2069 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2070 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2071 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2072 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2073 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2074 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2075 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2076 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00
2077 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2078 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2079 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2080 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2081 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2082 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2083 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2084 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2085 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2086 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2087 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2088 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2089 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2090 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2091 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2092 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2093 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value 

(3)

CO2 Value 

(4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (1)

NOx Price 

$/kt (2)

NOx Price 

$/kt (3)

NOx Price 

$/kt (4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (5)

NOx Price 

$/kt (6)

NOx 

reduction

NOx Value 

(1)

million 2010$ million 2010$ kt 

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

6.62 12.32 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.15 0.06

13.05 24.26 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.29 0.12

19.11 35.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.43 0.17

24.12 44.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.55 0.21

27.38 50.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.63 0.23

29.77 55.24 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.69 0.25
33.48 62.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.78 0.27

37.85 70.06 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.89 0.30

41.05 75.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.97 0.32

39.75 73.37 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.94 0.30

39.93 73.63 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.29

37.94 69.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.91 0.27

36.98 67.94 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.26

36.99 67.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.25

37.04 67.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.91 0.25

36.99 67.56 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.92 0.24

36.93 67.34 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.92 0.24

36.93 67.14 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.93 0.23

36.82 66.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.93 0.23

36.71 66.47 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.94 0.22

36.66 66.17 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.95 0.22

36.53 65.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.95 0.21

36.39 65.38 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.21

36.30 65.01 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.96 0.20

36.14 64.56 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.97 0.20

35.98 64.10 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.98 0.19

35.86 63.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.98 0.19

35.56 63.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.99 0.18

35.31 62.41 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.99 0.18

35.06 61.80 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 1.00 0.17

31.01 54.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.90 0.15

27.11 47.59 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.79 0.13

23.31 40.77 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.69 0.11

19.57 34.18 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.59 0.09

15.96 27.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.49 0.07

12.45 21.61 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.39 0.06

9.09 15.76 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.29 0.04

6.05 10.45 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.19 0.03

3.49 6.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.11 0.02

1.64 2.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.05 0.01

0.56 0.96 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.02 0.00

0.12 0.21 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.02 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value 

(2)

NOx Value 

(3)

NOx Value 

(4)

NOx Value 

(5)

NOx Value 

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.34 0.62 0.05 0.31 0.56

0.66 1.20 0.10 0.57 1.03

0.95 1.73 0.14 0.78 1.43

1.17 2.13 0.17 0.93 1.70

1.30 2.37 0.18 0.99 1.81

1.38 2.52 0.18 1.02 1.86
1.52 2.78 0.19 1.08 1.97

1.68 3.06 0.20 1.15 2.09

1.78 3.24 0.21 1.17 2.13

1.68 3.06 0.19 1.06 1.94

1.65 3.01 0.18 1.01 1.83

1.53 2.79 0.16 0.90 1.64

1.46 2.66 0.15 0.82 1.50

1.43 2.60 0.14 0.78 1.41

1.40 2.54 0.13 0.73 1.33

1.37 2.49 0.12 0.69 1.25

1.33 2.43 0.11 0.65 1.18

1.30 2.38 0.11 0.61 1.11

1.27 2.32 0.10 0.57 1.04

1.25 2.27 0.10 0.54 0.98

1.22 2.22 0.09 0.51 0.92

1.19 2.17 0.08 0.48 0.87

1.16 2.12 0.08 0.45 0.82

1.13 2.07 0.07 0.42 0.77

1.11 2.02 0.07 0.40 0.72

1.08 1.97 0.07 0.37 0.68

1.06 1.93 0.06 0.35 0.64

1.03 1.88 0.06 0.33 0.60

1.01 1.84 0.05 0.31 0.56

0.98 1.79 0.05 0.29 0.53

0.86 1.56 0.04 0.24 0.44

0.74 1.35 0.04 0.20 0.37

0.62 1.14 0.03 0.16 0.30

0.52 0.94 0.02 0.13 0.24

0.41 0.76 0.02 0.10 0.18

0.32 0.58 0.01 0.07 0.14

0.23 0.42 0.01 0.05 0.09

0.15 0.27 0.01 0.03 0.06

0.09 0.16 0.00 0.02 0.03

0.04 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Base Case - PC2

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2

Base Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million million million million

1972 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.000

1973 0.004 0.007 0.000 0.000

1974 0.007 0.014 0.000 0.000

1975 0.010 0.024 0.000 0.000

1976 0.017 0.040 0.000 0.000

1977 0.020 0.061 0.000 0.000

1978 0.024 0.084 0.000 0.000

1979 0.027 0.110 0.000 0.000

1980 0.034 0.143 0.001 0.001

1981 0.042 0.183 0.002 0.002

1982 0.038 0.217 0.004 0.004

1983 0.056 0.267 0.006 0.006

1984 0.086 0.344 0.009 0.009

1985 0.103 0.434 0.013 0.013

1986 0.118 0.534 0.017 0.017

1987 0.119 0.632 0.022 0.022

1988 0.104 0.709 0.026 0.026

1989 0.098 0.776 0.031 0.031

1990 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.037

1991 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.041

1992 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.053

1993 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.064

1994 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.081

1995 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.092

1996 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.098

1997 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.099

1998 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.097 0.000

1999 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.087 0.000

2000 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.078 0.000

2001 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.073 0.000

2002 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.069 0.000

2003 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.072 0.000

2004 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.076 0.000

2005 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.082 0.000

2006 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.084 0.000

2007 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.080 0.000

2008 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.102 0.000

2009 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.114 0.000

2010 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.132 0.009

2011 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.133 0.014

2012 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.016

2013 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017

2014 0.152 1.303 0.140 0.0% 94.6% 0.134 0.017

2015 0.149 1.316 0.136 0.0% 94.6% 0.131 0.018

2016 0.144 1.330 0.130 0.0% 94.6% 0.125 0.018

2017 0.138 1.344 0.124 0.0% 94.6% 0.119 0.019

2018 0.136 1.357 0.122 0.0% 94.6% 0.117 0.019

2019 0.139 1.371 0.125 0.0% 94.6% 0.120 0.019

2020 0.146 1.385 0.132 0.0% 94.6% 0.127 0.019
2021 0.153 1.397 0.141 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.019

2022 0.159 1.409 0.147 0.0% 94.6% 0.141 0.018

2023 0.161 1.421 0.149 0.0% 94.6% 0.143 0.018

2024 0.160 1.433 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.018

2025 0.158 1.445 0.146 0.0% 94.6% 0.140 0.018

2026 0.155 1.457 0.143 0.0% 94.6% 0.137 0.018

2027 0.153 1.468 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.018

2028 0.152 1.479 0.142 0.0% 94.6% 0.135 0.017

2029 0.155 1.489 0.144 0.0% 94.6% 0.138 0.017

2030 0.159 1.500 0.148 0.0% 94.6% 0.142 0.017

2031 0.163 1.510 0.153 0.0% 94.6% 0.146 0.017

2032 0.166 1.520 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.150 0.016

2033 0.168 1.530 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016

2034 0.168 1.539 0.158 0.0% 94.6% 0.152 0.016

2035 0.167 1.549 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016

2036 0.166 1.559 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2037 0.165 1.568 0.155 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2038 0.165 1.578 0.156 0.0% 94.6% 0.149 0.016

2039 0.167 1.588 0.157 0.0% 94.6% 0.151 0.016

2040 0.170 1.598 0.160 0.0% 94.6% 0.154 0.016

2041 0.172 1.607 0.163 0.0% 94.6% 0.156 0.016

2042 0.174 1.617 0.165 0.0% 94.6% 0.158 0.016

2043 0.176 1.627 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2044 0.176 1.636 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2045 0.176 1.646 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2046 0.176 1.656 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2047 0.176 1.665 0.166 0.0% 94.6% 0.160 0.016

2048 0.177 1.675 0.167 0.0% 94.6% 0.161 0.016

2049 0.178 1.685 0.169 0.0% 94.6% 0.162 0.016

2050 0.180 1.694 0.170 0.0% 94.6% 0.164 0.016

2051 0.182 1.704 0.172 0.0% 94.6% 0.166 0.016

2052 0.184 1.714 0.174 0.0% 94.6% 0.168 0.016

2053 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2054 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2053 0.185 1.723 0.175 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2054 0.186 1.733 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.169 0.016

2055 0.186 1.743 0.176 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016

2056 0.186 1.752 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.170 0.016

2057 0.187 1.762 0.177 0.0% 94.6% 0.171 0.016

2058 0.188 1.772 0.178 0.0% 94.6% 0.172 0.016

2059 0.189 1.782 0.179 0.0% 94.6% 0.173 0.016

2060 0.190 1.791 0.181 0.0% 94.6% 0.174 0.016

2061 0.192 1.801 0.182 0.0% 94.6% 0.176 0.016

2062 0.193 1.811 0.184 0.0% 94.6% 0.177 0.016

2063 0.194 1.820 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.178 0.016

2064 0.195 1.830 0.185 0.0% 94.6% 0.179 0.016

2065 0.196 1.840 0.186 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016

2066 0.196 1.849 0.187 0.0% 94.6% 0.180 0.016

2067 0.197 1.859 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.181 0.016

2068 0.198 1.869 0.188 0.0% 94.6% 0.182 0.016

2069 0.199 1.878 0.190 0.0% 94.6% 0.183 0.016

2070 0.201 1.888 0.191 0.0% 94.6% 0.185 0.016

nnual Shipments Standby Total Energy (site) Equipment Cost Oper Cost

Total 

Shipment Saturation Efficiency Elec Elec per Unit Total Fuel

million EF kWh/yr quad $ billion $ billion $

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1 0

0

0

0

0

Millions

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

0.080 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005

0.102 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006

0.114 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005

0.140 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $519 0.073 0.005

0.147 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $509 0.075 0.005

0.151 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $500 0.075 0.005

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $491 0.075 0.005

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $482 0.073 0.006

0.149 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $474 0.071 0.006

0.144 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $467 0.067 0.006

0.138 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $460 0.063 0.006

0.136 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $453 0.061 0.006

0.139 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $446 0.062 0.006

0.146 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $440 0.064 0.006

0

0

1980
0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $433 0.066 0.006

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $427 0.068 0.006

0.161 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $421 0.068 0.006

0.160 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $415 0.066 0.006

0.158 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $410 0.065 0.006

0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $404 0.063 0.006

0.153 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $399 0.061 0.006

0.152 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $394 0.060 0.007

0.155 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $390 0.060 0.007

0.159 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $385 0.061 0.007

0.163 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $380 0.062 0.007

0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $376 0.062 0.007

0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $371 0.062 0.007

0.168 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $367 0.062 0.007

0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $363 0.061 0.007

0.166 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $359 0.059 0.007

0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $355 0.059 0.007

0.165 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $351 0.058 0.008

0.167 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $348 0.058 0.008

0.170 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $344 0.058 0.008

0.172 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $341 0.059 0.008

0.174 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $337 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.0% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.176 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.177 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.008

0.178 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.059 0.009

0.180 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.060 0.009

0.182 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009

0.184 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.061 0.009

0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.185 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.186 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.187 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.062 0.009

0.188 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.009

0.189 1.1% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.063 0.010

0.190 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.192 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.193 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.064 0.010

0.194 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.195 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.065 0.010

0.196 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010

0.197 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.010

0.198 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0002 $334 0.066 0.011

0.199 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011

0.201 1.2% 4.50 39.1 0.0003 $334 0.067 0.011

Shipment - Historical and Projected

Series1

Series2

AHAM Saturations

Year Million Percent

1982 21.4 25.6

1990 77.2 82.7

2001 94.6 90.7

2005 97.2 89.3

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Standards Case - PC2

Historical and Forecasted Shipments for PC2

Standards Case

Market Segments Annual Shipments

Year New 

Shipment Total Stock Retiring Units

% Early

Repl.

Saturation in 

New Houses MS Impact Repl. Units New Units

Survival million million % million million

1972 0.003

1973 0.004

1974 0.007

1975 0.010

1976 0.017

1977 0.020

1978 0.024

1979 0.027

1980 0.034 0.143

1981 0.042 0.183

1982 0.038 0.217

1983 0.056 0.267

1984 0.086 0.344

1985 0.103 0.434

1986 0.118 0.534 0.000

1987 0.119 0.632 0.022

1988 0.104 0.709 0.026

1989 0.098 0.776 0.031

1990 0.077 0.815 0.037 0.0% 0.000

1991 0.066 0.836 0.046 0.0% 0.000

1992 0.072 0.852 0.056 0.0% 0.000

1993 0.072 0.855 0.070 0.0% 0.000

1994 0.086 0.856 0.084 0.0% 0.000

1995 0.082 0.840 0.097 0.0% 0.000

1996 0.088 0.824 0.104 0.0% 0.000

1997 0.091 0.810 0.105 0.0% 0.000

1998 0.104 0.815 0.099 0.0% 0.000

1999 0.114 0.838 0.091 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2000 0.126 0.882 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2001 0.134 0.940 0.077 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2002 0.133 0.997 0.076 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2003 0.143 1.062 0.078 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2004 0.155 1.135 0.082 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2005 0.139 1.187 0.087 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2006 0.137 1.231 0.092 0.0% 0.0% 0.000

2007 0.119 1.251 0.099 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.080 0.000

2008 0.113 1.256 0.108 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.102 0.000

2009 0.096 1.236 0.117 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.114 0.000

2010 0.140 1.251 0.125 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.132 0.009

2011 0.147 1.265 0.132 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.133 0.014

2012 0.151 1.279 0.137 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.134 0.016

2013 0.152 1.291 0.140 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.135 0.017

2014 0.150 1.302 0.140 0.0% 0.9% -1.0% 0.133 0.017

2015 0.148 1.314 0.136 0.0% 0.9% -0.8% 0.130 0.018

2016 0.143 1.326 0.130 0.0% 0.9% -0.6% 0.124 0.018

2017 0.137 1.339 0.124 0.0% 0.9% -0.5% 0.118 0.019

2018 0.135 1.352 0.122 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.116 0.019

2019 0.138 1.366 0.125 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.119 0.019
2020 0.145 1.379 0.132 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.126 0.019

2021 0.153 1.390 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.134 0.019

2022 0.158 1.402 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.4% 0.140 0.018

2023 0.160 1.413 0.148 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.142 0.018

2024 0.159 1.424 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.141 0.018

2025 0.157 1.436 0.145 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.139 0.018

2026 0.154 1.447 0.143 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.136 0.018

2027 0.152 1.458 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.134 0.017

2028 0.151 1.468 0.141 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.134 0.017

2029 0.153 1.478 0.143 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.137 0.017

2030 0.158 1.488 0.147 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.141 0.017

2031 0.161 1.498 0.152 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.145 0.017

2032 0.164 1.507 0.155 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.148 0.016

2033 0.166 1.516 0.157 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.150 0.016

2034 0.166 1.525 0.157 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.150 0.016

2035 0.165 1.535 0.156 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.149 0.016

2036 0.164 1.544 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.148 0.016

2037 0.163 1.553 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.147 0.016

2038 0.163 1.562 0.154 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.147 0.016

2039 0.165 1.571 0.156 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.149 0.016

2040 0.168 1.580 0.158 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.152 0.016

2041 0.170 1.589 0.161 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.154 0.016

2042 0.172 1.598 0.163 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.156 0.016

2043 0.174 1.608 0.164 0.0% 0.9% -0.3% 0.158 0.016

2044 0.000 1.443

2045 0.000 1.278

2046 0.000 1.114

2047 0.000 0.949

2048 0.000 0.785

2049 0.000 0.621

2050 0.000 0.460

2051 0.000 0.310

2052 0.000 0.182

2053 0.000 0.086

2052 0.000 0.182

2053 0.000 0.086

2054 0.000 0.030

2055 0.000 0.007

2056 0.000 0.001

2057 0.000 0.000

2058 0.000 0.000

2059 0.000 0.000

2060 0.000 0.000

2061 0.000 0.000

2062 0.000 0.000

2063 0.000 0.000

2064 0.000 0.000

2065 0.000 0.000

2066 0.000 0.000

2067 0.000 0.000

2068 0.000 0.000

2069 0.000 0.000

2070 0.000 0.000

UEC CumulativeTotal Energy (site) Incr. Equip. Cost Oper Cost delta UEC

Total 

Shipment Saturation Elec Shipment Impact

Shipment 

Impact Elec per Unit Total Fuel Elec

million kWh/yr million quad $ billion $ billion $ kWh/yr

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1

39.1 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.7% 39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.8% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 0.9% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.0% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.000 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.00

0.080 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.102 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.006 0.00

0.114 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.140 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.147 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.151 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.152 1.1% 39.1 0.000 0.000 0.0002 $0 0.000 0.005 0.00

0.150 1.1% 19.1 0.002 0.002 0.0002 $14 0.002 0.005 19.98

0.148 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.003 0.0002 $14 0.002 0.005 19.98

0.143 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.004 0.0001 $13 0.002 0.005 19.98

0.137 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.004 0.0001 $13 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.135 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.005 0.0001 $13 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.138 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.006 0.0001 $13 0.002 0.004 19.98
0.145 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.006 0.0001 $13 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.153 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.007 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.158 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.008 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.160 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.008 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.159 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.009 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.157 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.010 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.154 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.011 0.0001 $12 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.152 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.011 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.151 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.012 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.153 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.012 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.158 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.013 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.161 1.1% 19.1 0.001 0.013 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.164 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.014 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.166 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.015 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.166 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.015 0.0001 $11 0.002 0.003 19.98

0.165 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.016 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.164 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.017 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.163 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.017 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.163 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.018 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.165 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.018 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.168 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.019 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.170 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.020 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.172 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.020 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

0.174 1.0% 19.1 0.002 0.021 0.0001 $10 0.002 0.004 19.98

19.1 0.176 0.196 0.0001 $10 0.000 0.003 19.98

19.1 0.176 0.370 0.0001 $10 0.000 0.003 19.98

19.1 0.176 0.544 0.0001 $10 0.000 0.003 19.98

19.1 0.176 0.718 0.0001 $10 0.000 0.002 19.98

19.1 0.177 0.893 0.0001 $10 0.000 0.002 19.98

19.1 0.178 1.067 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.002 19.98

19.1 0.180 1.240 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.001 19.98

19.1 0.182 1.407 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.001 19.98

19.1 0.184 1.562 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.185 1.699 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.184 1.562 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.185 1.699 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.186 1.811 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.186 1.893 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.186 1.947 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.187 1.978 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.188 1.989 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.189 2.000 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.190 2.011 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.192 2.022 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.193 2.034 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.194 2.045 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.195 2.056 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.196 2.067 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.196 2.077 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.197 2.088 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.198 2.098 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.199 2.109 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

19.1 0.201 2.120 0.0000 $10 0.000 0.000 19.98

Energy Saving

Energy

Savings

Oper. Cost 

Saving

Discount 

Factor (Nonmonetized)

Discounted 

Energy

Savings

Discount 

Factor 

(Monetary)

Incr. Equip. 

Cost

Oper. Cost 

Saving

quad billion $ quad billion $ billion $

Discounted Values

0

0

0

0

0

0

Millions

Shipment - Historical and Projected

0.000 0.000 1.126 0.000 1.126 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.093 0.000 1.093 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.061 0.000 1.061 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.030 0.000 1.030 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.971 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.943 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.915 0.000 0.915 0.002 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.888 0.000 0.888 0.002 0.001

0.000 0.001 0.863 0.000 0.863 0.002 0.001

0.000 0.001 0.837 0.000 0.837 0.002 0.001

0.000 0.002 0.813 0.000 0.813 0.001 0.001

0.000 0.002 0.789 0.000 0.789 0.001 0.001

0

0

0

0

0

0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Millions

Base Case

Standards Case
0.000 0.002 0.766 0.000 0.766 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.002 0.744 0.000 0.744 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.722 0.000 0.722 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.701 0.000 0.701 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.681 0.000 0.681 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.661 0.000 0.661 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.642 0.000 0.642 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.623 0.000 0.623 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.605 0.000 0.605 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.587 0.000 0.587 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.570 0.000 0.570 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.003 0.554 0.000 0.554 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.538 0.000 0.538 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.522 0.000 0.522 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.507 0.000 0.507 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.492 0.000 0.492 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.478 0.000 0.478 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.464 0.000 0.464 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.450 0.000 0.450 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.437 0.000 0.437 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.424 0.000 0.424 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.412 0.000 0.412 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.400 0.000 0.400 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.388 0.000 0.388 0.001 0.002

0.000 0.004 0.377 0.000 0.377 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.003 0.366 0.000 0.366 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.003 0.355 0.000 0.355 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.002 0.345 0.000 0.345 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.002 0.335 0.000 0.335 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.002 0.325 0.000 0.325 0.000 0.001

0.000 0.001 0.316 0.000 0.316 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.001 0.307 0.000 0.307 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.298 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.281 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.272 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.264 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.257 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.249 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.242 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.235 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.228 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.221 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.215 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.209 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.203 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.197 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.185 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.180 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.175 0.000 0.000

Power Generation 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0%

Year CO2 Marg. 

Emiss. rate

NOx Marg. 

Emiss. rate

CO2 Price 

$/ton (1)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (2)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (3)

CO2 Price 

$/ton (4)

CO2 

reduction

CO2 Value 

(1)

CO2 Value 

(2)

Mt/quad kt/quad 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ 2007 $ Mt 

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

million 2010$

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 141.73 111.09 $4.70 $21.40 $35.10 $64.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011 141.73 111.09 $4.90 $21.90 $35.70 $66.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012 141.73 111.09 $5.10 $22.40 $36.40 $68.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2013 141.73 111.09 $5.30 $22.80 $37.00 $69.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2014 141.73 111.09 $5.50 $23.30 $37.70 $71.20 0.00 0.01 0.05

2015 141.73 111.09 $5.70 $23.80 $38.40 $72.80 0.00 0.02 0.10

2016 141.73 111.09 $5.90 $24.30 $39.00 $74.40 0.01 0.03 0.15

2017 141.73 111.09 $6.10 $24.80 $39.70 $76.00 0.01 0.04 0.18

2018 141.73 111.09 $6.30 $25.30 $40.40 $77.50 0.01 0.05 0.21

2019 141.73 111.09 $6.50 $25.80 $41.00 $79.10 0.01 0.05 0.23
2020 141.73 111.09 $6.80 $26.30 $41.70 $80.70 0.01 0.06 0.26

2021 141.73 111.09 $7.10 $27.00 $42.50 $82.60 0.01 0.06 0.29

2022 141.73 111.09 $7.40 $27.60 $43.40 $84.60 0.02 0.07 0.31

2023 141.73 111.09 $7.70 $28.30 $44.20 $86.50 0.01 0.07 0.30

2024 141.73 111.09 $7.90 $28.90 $45.00 $88.40 0.01 0.06 0.30

2025 141.73 111.09 $8.20 $29.60 $45.90 $90.40 0.01 0.06 0.29

2026 141.73 111.09 $8.50 $30.20 $46.70 $92.30 0.01 0.06 0.28

2027 141.73 111.09 $8.80 $30.90 $47.50 $94.20 0.01 0.06 0.28

2028 141.73 111.09 $9.10 $31.50 $48.40 $96.20 0.01 0.06 0.28

2029 141.73 111.09 $9.40 $32.10 $49.20 $98.10 0.01 0.06 0.28

2030 141.73 111.09 $9.70 $32.80 $50.00 $100.00 0.01 0.06 0.28

2031 141.73 111.09 $10.00 $33.40 $50.90 $102.00 0.01 0.06 0.28

2032 141.73 111.09 $10.30 $34.10 $51.70 $103.90 0.01 0.06 0.28

2033 141.73 111.09 $10.60 $34.70 $52.50 $105.80 0.01 0.06 0.28

2034 141.73 111.09 $10.90 $35.40 $53.40 $107.80 0.01 0.05 0.27

2035 141.73 111.09 $11.20 $36.00 $54.20 $109.70 0.01 0.05 0.27

2036 141.73 111.09 $11.50 $36.70 $55.00 $111.60 0.01 0.05 0.27

2037 141.73 111.09 $11.80 $37.30 $55.90 $113.60 0.01 0.05 0.27

2038 141.73 111.09 $12.10 $37.90 $56.70 $115.50 0.02 0.05 0.27

2039 141.73 111.09 $12.40 $38.60 $57.50 $117.40 0.02 0.05 0.27

2040 141.73 111.09 $12.70 $39.20 $58.40 $119.30 0.02 0.05 0.26

2041 141.73 111.09 $13.00 $39.80 $59.00 $121.00 0.02 0.05 0.26

2042 141.73 111.09 $13.30 $40.40 $59.70 $122.70 0.02 0.05 0.26

2043 141.73 111.09 $13.60 $40.90 $60.40 $124.40 0.02 0.05 0.26

2044 141.73 111.09 $13.90 $41.50 $61.00 $126.10 0.01 0.04 0.23

2045 141.73 111.09 $14.20 $42.10 $61.70 $127.80 0.01 0.03 0.20

2046 141.73 111.09 $14.50 $42.60 $62.40 $129.40 0.01 0.03 0.17

2047 141.73 111.09 $14.80 $43.20 $63.00 $131.10 0.01 0.02 0.14

2048 141.73 111.09 $15.10 $43.80 $63.70 $132.80 0.01 0.02 0.12

2049 141.73 111.09 $15.40 $44.40 $64.40 $134.50 0.01 0.02 0.09

2050 141.73 111.09 $15.70 $44.90 $65.00 $136.20 0.00 0.01 0.07

2051 141.73 111.09 $16.00 $45.50 $65.70 $137.90 0.00 0.01 0.04

2052 141.73 111.09 $16.30 $46.10 $66.40 $139.70 0.00 0.00 0.03

2053 141.73 111.09 $16.70 $46.70 $67.10 $141.50 0.00 0.00 0.01

2054 141.73 111.09 $17.00 $47.30 $67.70 $143.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2055 141.73 111.09 $17.30 $47.90 $68.40 $145.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2056 141.73 111.09 $17.70 $48.50 $69.10 $147.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2057 141.73 111.09 $18.00 $49.10 $69.90 $148.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2058 141.73 111.09 $18.40 $49.80 $70.60 $150.80 0.00 0.00 0.00

2059 141.73 111.09 $18.80 $50.40 $71.30 $152.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2060 141.73 111.09 $19.10 $51.00 $72.00 $154.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2061 141.73 111.09 $19.50 $51.70 $72.80 $156.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2062 141.73 111.09 $19.90 $52.40 $73.50 $158.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2063 141.73 111.09 $20.30 $53.00 $74.30 $160.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2064 141.73 111.09 $20.70 $53.70 $75.00 $162.80 0.00 0.00 0.00

2065 141.73 111.09 $21.10 $54.40 $75.80 $164.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2066 141.73 111.09 $21.60 $55.10 $76.60 $167.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2067 141.73 111.09 $22.00 $55.80 $77.40 $169.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2068 141.73 111.09 $22.40 $56.50 $78.20 $171.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2069 141.73 111.09 $22.90 $57.30 $79.00 $173.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2070 141.73 111.09 $23.30 $58.00 $79.80 $175.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2071 141.73 111.09 $23.80 $58.70 $80.60 $177.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2072 141.73 111.09 $24.30 $59.50 $81.50 $180.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2073 141.73 111.09 $24.80 $60.30 $82.30 $182.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2074 141.73 111.09 $25.30 $61.00 $83.10 $184.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2075 141.73 111.09 $25.80 $61.80 $84.00 $187.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

2076 141.73 111.09 $26.30 $62.60 $84.90 $189.60 0.00 0.00 0.00
2077 141.73 111.09 $26.80 $63.40 $85.70 $192.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2078 141.73 111.09 $27.40 $64.20 $86.60 $194.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2079 141.73 111.09 $27.90 $65.10 $87.50 $197.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2080 141.73 111.09 $28.50 $65.90 $88.40 $199.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2081 141.73 111.09 $29.00 $66.70 $89.30 $202.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2082 141.73 111.09 $29.60 $67.60 $90.20 $204.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2083 141.73 111.09 $30.20 $68.50 $91.20 $207.30 0.00 0.00 0.00

2084 141.73 111.09 $30.80 $69.30 $92.10 $209.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2085 141.73 111.09 $31.40 $70.20 $93.10 $212.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2086 141.73 111.09 $32.10 $71.10 $94.00 $215.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2087 141.73 111.09 $32.70 $72.10 $95.00 $218.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

2088 141.73 111.09 $33.30 $73.00 $96.00 $220.90 0.00 0.00 0.00

2089 141.73 111.09 $34.00 $73.90 $96.90 $223.70 0.00 0.00 0.00

2090 141.73 111.09 $34.70 $74.90 $97.90 $226.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

2091 141.73 111.09 $35.40 $75.80 $99.00 $229.50 0.00 0.00 0.00

2092 141.73 111.09 $36.10 $76.80 $100.00 $232.40 0.00 0.00 0.00

2093 141.73 111.09 $36.80 $77.80 $101.00 $235.40 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0%

CO2 Value 

(3)

CO2 Value 

(4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (1)

NOx Price 

$/kt (2)

NOx Price 

$/kt (3)

NOx Price 

$/kt (4)

NOx Price 

$/kt (5)

NOx Price 

$/kt (6)

NOx 

reduction

NOx Value 

(1)

million 2010$ million 2010$ kt 

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.08 0.16 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.16 0.31 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.24 0.45 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.30 0.57 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.35 0.64 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.38 0.70 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00
0.42 0.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.48 0.89 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.52 0.96 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.50 0.93 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.51 0.93 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.48 0.88 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.86 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.47 0.85 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.84 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.83 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.82 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.82 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.46 0.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.45 0.81 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.45 0.80 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.45 0.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.44 0.79 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.44 0.78 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.39 0.69 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.34 0.60 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.29 0.51 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.25 0.43 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.20 0.35 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.01 0.00

0.16 0.27 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.11 0.20 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.08 0.13 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.04 0.08 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.04 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 $0.45 $2.54 $4.62 0.00 0.00
3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

NOx Value 

(2)

NOx Value 

(3)

NOx Value 

(4)

NOx Value 

(5)

NOx Value 

(6)

million 2010$

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02
0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.03

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.02

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Price Forecast

Price Trends Rescaled

Year Default Low High MWO-Only AEO Chained Year

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6%

2010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2010

2011 0.981 0.986 0.979 0.968 0.989 1.000 2011

2012 0.963 0.971 0.958 0.938 0.978 1.000 2012

2013 0.946 0.958 0.939 0.909 0.964 1.000 2013

2014 0.930 0.945 0.920 0.883 0.949 1.000 2014

2015 0.914 0.933 0.903 0.859 0.932 1.000 2015

2016 0.900 0.921 0.886 0.837 0.916 1.000 2016

2017 0.886 0.910 0.871 0.817 0.899 1.000 2017

2018 0.873 0.900 0.857 0.799 0.883 1.000 2018

2019 0.861 0.890 0.842 0.781 0.866 1.000 2019

2020 0.848 0.880 0.828 0.763 0.848 1.000 2020

2021 0.836 0.870 0.814 0.745 0.829 1.000 2021

2022 0.823 0.860 0.801 0.728 0.810 1.000 2022

2023 0.812 0.850 0.788 0.711 0.791 1.000 2023

2024 0.800 0.841 0.775 0.696 0.772 1.000 2024

2025 0.790 0.832 0.763 0.681 0.754 1.000 2025

2026 0.779 0.824 0.752 0.667 0.736 1.000 2026

2027 0.770 0.816 0.741 0.654 0.719 1.000 2027

2028 0.760 0.808 0.731 0.642 0.701 1.000 2028

2029 0.751 0.800 0.721 0.630 0.684 1.000 2029

2030 0.742 0.793 0.711 0.618 0.667 1.000 2030

2031 0.733 0.785 0.702 0.607 0.651 1.000 2031

2032 0.725 0.778 0.692 0.596 0.634 1.000 2032

2033 0.716 0.771 0.683 0.585 0.619 1.000 2033

2034 0.708 0.764 0.674 0.575 0.604 1.000 2034

2035 0.700 0.757 0.665 0.565 0.589 1.000 2035

2036 0.692 0.751 0.657 0.555 0.575 1.000 2036

2037 0.685 0.745 0.649 0.546 0.561 1.000 2037

2038 0.678 0.739 0.641 0.537 0.547 1.000 2038

2039 0.670 0.733 0.633 0.529 0.534 1.000 2039

2040 0.663 0.727 0.626 0.521 0.521 1.000 2040

2041 0.657 0.721 0.618 0.513 0.508 1.000 2041

2042 0.650 0.715 0.611 0.505 0.496 1.000 2042

2043 0.643 0.709 0.604 0.497 0.484 1.000 2043

Price Scaling Factors

Low 1.02

High 0.99

MWO-Only 0.95

AEO Chained 1.02

Constant 

Prices
Default Low High MWO-Only AEO Chained

28.9% 19.2% 37.0% 39.6%

1.076 1.058 1.087 1.132 1.054 1.000

1.056 1.043 1.064 1.096 1.043 1.000

1.036 1.028 1.042 1.062 1.031 1.000

1.018 1.014 1.020 1.030 1.017 1.000

1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

0.983 0.987 0.981 0.973 0.983 1.000

0.968 0.975 0.963 0.948 0.965 1.000

0.953 0.963 0.947 0.925 0.948 1.000

0.939 0.952 0.931 0.904 0.930 1.000

0.926 0.942 0.916 0.884 0.913 1.000

0.912 0.931 0.900 0.864 0.894 1.000

0.899 0.920 0.885 0.844 0.874 1.000

0.886 0.910 0.870 0.824 0.854 1.000

0.873 0.900 0.856 0.806 0.834 1.000

0.861 0.890 0.843 0.788 0.814 1.000

0.849 0.881 0.830 0.771 0.795 1.000

0.838 0.872 0.817 0.756 0.776 1.000

0.828 0.863 0.806 0.741 0.758 1.000

0.818 0.855 0.795 0.727 0.739 1.000

0.808 0.847 0.784 0.714 0.721 1.000

0.798 0.839 0.773 0.700 0.703 1.000

0.789 0.831 0.762 0.687 0.686 1.000

0.779 0.824 0.752 0.675 0.669 1.000

0.770 0.816 0.742 0.662 0.652 1.000

0.761 0.809 0.732 0.651 0.637 1.000

0.753 0.802 0.723 0.639 0.621 1.000

0.745 0.795 0.714 0.629 0.606 1.000

0.737 0.788 0.705 0.619 0.591 1.000

0.729 0.782 0.697 0.609 0.577 1.000

0.721 0.775 0.688 0.599 0.563 1.000

0.714 0.769 0.680 0.590 0.549 1.000

0.706 0.763 0.672 0.580 0.536 1.000

0.699 0.757 0.664 0.571 0.523 1.000

0.692 0.751 0.657 0.563 0.510 1.000

Constant 

Prices
Housing Projections

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Projected Total Housing Stock (millions) Projected Housing Starts (millions)

Reference High Low Reference High Low

1990 93.99 93.99 93.99 1990 1.38 1.38 1.38

1991 94.87 94.87 94.87 1991 1.18 1.18 1.18

1992 95.75 95.75 95.75 1992 1.41 1.41 1.41

1993 96.63 96.63 96.63 1993 1.54 1.54 1.54

1994 97.88 97.88 97.88 1994 1.76 1.76 1.76

1995 99.06 99.06 99.06 1995 1.69 1.69 1.69

1996 100.10 100.10 100.10 1996 1.82 1.82 1.82

1997 101.31 101.31 101.31 1997 1.49 1.49 1.49

1998 102.61 102.61 102.61 1998 1.54 1.54 1.54

1999 103.83 103.83 103.83 1999 1.64 1.64 1.64

2000 105.01 105.01 105.01 2000 1.70 1.70 1.70

2001 106.27 106.27 106.27 2001 1.72 1.72 1.72

2002 107.35 107.35 107.35 2002 1.75 1.75 1.75

2003 108.53 108.53 108.53 2003 1.79 1.79 1.79

2004 109.73 109.73 109.73 2004 1.80 1.80 1.80

2005 111.09 111.09 111.09 2005 2.22 2.22 2.22

2006 112.50 112.50 112.50 2006 1.92 1.92 1.92

2007 112.48 112.48 112.48 2007 1.44 1.44 1.44

2008 113.33 113.33 113.33 2008 0.98 0.98 0.98

2009 114.03 114.03 114.03 2009 0.61 0.61 0.61

2010 115.26 115.26 115.26 2010 0.92 0.92 0.92

2011 116.23 116.48 116.01 2011 1.49 1.73 1.26

2012 117.44 117.97 116.94 2012 1.72 2.01 1.44

2013 118.70 119.54 117.91 2013 1.79 2.10 1.49

2014 119.98 121.15 118.88 2014 1.81 2.14 1.50

2015 121.33 122.86 119.89 2015 1.88 2.25 1.54

2016 122.74 124.66 120.93 2016 1.95 2.34 1.57

2017 124.17 126.47 121.99 2017 1.97 2.36 1.59

2018 125.63 128.32 123.06 2018 2.00 2.41 1.62

2019 127.11 130.20 124.15 2019 2.03 2.44 1.63

2020 128.58 132.09 125.22 2020 2.03 2.46 1.62

2021 129.98 133.91 126.23 2021 1.97 2.41 1.56

2022 131.33 135.70 127.17 2022 1.92 2.38 1.50

2023 132.64 137.47 128.05 2023 1.89 2.36 1.45

2024 133.94 139.23 128.91 2024 1.88 2.36 1.42

2025 135.25 141.02 129.74 2025 1.89 2.40 1.40

2026 136.54 142.83 130.55 2026 1.89 2.43 1.38

2027 137.80 144.62 131.30 2027 1.85 2.41 1.33

2028 139.01 146.36 132.00 2028 1.81 2.37 1.27

2029 140.18 148.07 132.66 2029 1.78 2.35 1.23

2030 141.34 149.78 133.30 2030 1.78 2.35 1.22

2031 142.48 151.46 133.90 2031 1.75 2.32 1.18

2032 143.58 153.08 134.45 2032 1.71 2.27 1.13

2033 144.65 154.67 134.97 2033 1.70 2.25 1.11

2034 145.73 156.24 135.48 2034 1.70 2.24 1.09

2035 146.79 157.81 135.96 2035 1.70 2.24 1.07

2036 147.85 159.36 136.42 2036 1.70 2.24 1.07

2037 148.91 160.92 136.89 2037 1.70 2.24 1.07

2038 149.97 162.47 137.35 2038 1.70 2.24 1.07

2039 151.03 164.03 137.81 2039 1.70 2.24 1.07

2040 152.09 165.58 138.27 2040 1.70 2.24 1.07

2041 153.15 167.14 138.73 2041 1.70 2.24 1.07

2042 154.21 168.69 139.19 2042 1.70 2.24 1.07

2043 155.27 170.25 139.65 2043 1.70 2.24 1.07

Demolitions (Calculated)

Reference High Low

1990 - - -

1991 0.50 0.50 0.50

1992 0.30 0.30 0.30

1993 0.53 0.53 0.53

1994 0.30 0.30 0.30

1995 0.58 0.58 0.58

1996 0.65 0.65 0.65

1997 0.61 0.61 0.61

1998 0.19 0.19 0.19

1999 0.32 0.32 0.32

2000 0.46 0.46 0.46

2001 0.44 0.44 0.44

2002 0.64 0.64 0.64

2003 0.57 0.57 0.57

2004 0.59 0.59 0.59

2005 0.44 0.44 0.44

2006 0.81 0.81 0.81

2007 1.95 1.95 1.95

2008 0.59 0.59 0.59

2009 0.28 0.28 0.28

2010 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63

2011 -0.04 -0.29 0.18

2012 0.28 0.24 0.34

2013 0.46 0.43 0.47

2014 0.51 0.50 0.52

2015 0.46 0.42 0.48

2016 0.46 0.46 0.50

2017 0.52 0.53 0.52

2018 0.52 0.52 0.51

2019 0.52 0.53 0.53

2020 0.56 0.55 0.55

2021 0.63 0.63 0.62

2022 0.62 0.62 0.62

2023 0.60 0.61 0.61

2024 0.59 0.60 0.60

2025 0.58 0.57 0.58

2026 0.60 0.59 0.60

2027 0.63 0.64 0.62

2028 0.65 0.67 0.63

2029 0.64 0.65 0.62

2030 0.61 0.64 0.60

2031 0.64 0.68 0.62

2032 0.66 0.70 0.63

2033 0.64 0.69 0.61

2034 0.62 0.67 0.60

2035 0.63 0.67 0.60

2036 0.64 0.68 0.61

2037 0.64 0.68 0.61

2038 0.64 0.68 0.61

2039 0.64 0.68 0.61

2040 0.64 0.68 0.61

2041 0.64 0.68 0.61

2042 0.64 0.68 0.61

2043 0.64 0.68 0.61



Elec Prices

Average Energy Prices (2010 $ / MMBtu)

Electricity ($/MMBtu site energy)

Ref. High Low

2007 32.22 32.22 32.22

2008 33.72 33.72 33.72

2009 32.75 32.77 32.77

2010 31.34 31.38 31.35

2011 30.28 30.73 29.98

2012 31.48 32.11 31.03

2013 31.87 32.45 31.21

2014 31.89 32.48 31.22

2015 31.83 32.53 31.08

2016 32.05 32.83 31.18

2017 32.21 32.96 31.11

2018 32.19 33.06 31.04

2019 32.08 33.17 30.82

2020 32.25 33.40 30.93

2021 32.42 33.63 31.01

2022 32.49 33.65 31.08

2023 32.61 33.77 31.16

2024 32.70 34.15 31.42

2025 32.67 34.50 31.74

2026 32.81 34.90 31.70

2027 32.99 35.22 31.57

2028 33.15 35.62 31.62

2029 33.56 36.05 31.70

2030 33.88 36.49 31.65

2031 34.24 36.80 31.75

2032 34.55 36.82 31.98

2033 34.69 36.79 32.12

2034 34.94 37.02 32.28

2035 35.15 37.31 32.41

2036 35.36 37.58 32.51

2037 35.56 37.86 32.62

2038 35.77 38.14 32.72

2039 35.97 38.42 32.82

2040 36.18 38.71 32.92

2041 36.39 38.99 33.02

2042 36.60 39.28 33.13

2043 36.81 39.57 33.23

2044 37.02 39.86 33.33

2045 37.23 40.16 33.44

2046 37.45 40.45 33.54

2047 37.66 40.75 33.65

2048 37.88 41.05 33.75

2049 38.10 41.36 33.86

2050 38.32 41.66 33.96

2051 38.54 41.97 34.07

2052 38.76 42.28 34.18

2053 38.98 42.59 34.28

2054 39.21 42.91 34.39

2055 39.44 43.23 34.50

2056 39.66 43.55 34.60

2057 39.89 43.87 34.71

2058 40.12 44.19 34.82

2059 40.35 44.52 34.93

2060 40.58 44.85 35.04

2061 40.82 45.18 35.15

2062 41.05 45.51 35.26
2063 41.29 45.85 35.37

2064 41.53 46.19 35.48

2065 41.77 46.53 35.59

2066 42.01 46.87 35.70

2067 42.25 47.22 35.81

2068 42.49 47.57 35.92

2069 42.74 47.92 36.04

2070 42.98 48.28 36.15

2071 43.23 48.63 36.26

2072 43.48 48.99 36.37

2073 43.73 49.35 36.49

Source: AEO 2010

After 2035, the rate of change from 2020-2035 is used.




Heat Rates

Marginal Source to Site Conversion Factor

Elec

(Btu/kWh)

2005 11500

2006 11500

2007 11200

2008 10250

2009 10000

2010 10000

2011 10000

2012 10000

2013 10000

2014 10000

2015 10000

2016 10000

2017 9700

2018 9000

2019 8300

2020 8088

2021 8088

2022 7949

2023 7200

2024 6966

2025 6500

2026 6309

2027 6309

2028 6309

2029 6309

2030 6309

2031 6309

2032 6309

2033 6309

2034 6309

2035 6309

2036 6309

2037 6309

2038 6309

2039 6309

2040 6309

2041 6309

2042 6309

2043 6309

2044 6309

2045 6309

2046 6309

2047 6309

2048 6309

2049 6309

2050 6309

2051 6309

2052 6309

2053 6309

2054 6309

2055 6309

2056 6309

2057 6309

2058 6309

2059 6309

2060 6309
2061 6309

2062 6309

2063 6309

2064 6309

2065 6309

2066 6309

2067 6309

2068 6309

2069 6309

2070 6309




Lifetime

Assumptions

Lifetime of Microwaves up to 2009:

 Average 10.91

 alpha 4.75 shape

 beta 10.28 scale

 low value 1 location

1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

3 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

4 0.2% 99.7% 99.8%

5 0.8% 98.9% 99.2%

6 2.1% 96.8% 97.9%

7 4.2% 92.5% 95.6%

8 7.4% 85.1% 92.0%

9 11.3% 73.8% 86.7%

10 15.0% 58.8% 79.6%

11 17.2% 41.6% 70.8%

12 16.4% 25.2% 60.5%

13 12.7% 12.4% 49.4%

14 7.7% 4.7% 38.1%

15 3.4% 1.3% 27.6%

16 1.1% 0.2% 18.6%

17 0.2% 0.0% 11.5%

18 0.0% 0.0% 6.5%

19 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%

20 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%

sum: 100%

wt. avg. lifetime = 10.910759

max lifetime = 13

% surviving to 

next year Age % retiring % surviving