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GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

NATIONAL OCEANIC

AND ATMOSPHERIC

ADMINISTRATION

National Weather Service

Modernization and

Weather Satellite Program

Statement of Joel C. Willemssen

Director, Civil Agencies Information Services

Accounting and Information Management Division

Testimony

Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment,

Committee on Science, House of Representatives

United States General Accounting Office

GAO
Page 1 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:

We appreciate the opportunity to join in today’s hearing to discuss our

work in two areas that are the responsibility of the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). At your request, we will discuss the

status of the National Weather Service (NWS) systems modernization and

the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service’s

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program.

In brief, although NWS is nearing completion of its systems modernization

effort, it still faces important challenges. During the coming year, NWS

plans to finish commissioning1 the Advanced Weather Interactive

Processing System (AWIPS), the final system of the modernization. At the

same time, NWS is developing additional AWIPS system capabilities to be

implemented in the future. According to NWS, these additional capabilities

are needed for AWIPS to improve radar and satellite data processing and

to provide weather forecasters with a full range of interactive forecasting

techniques. The agency is also developing a systems architecture to

provide a blueprint for future systems acquisitions.

Regarding the GOES program, NOAA continues to deploy weather

satellites to ensure adequate satellite coverage. However, because of

unexpected problems, satellite coverage is currently at risk and will

remain so until a new satellite is successfully launched. NOAA plans to

launch the new satellite in May 2000. To ensure continued satellite

coverage beyond the current satellite series, NOAA is planning for the

program’s near- and long-term future. The approach we used to perform

this work—our objectives, scope, and methodology—are provided in

appendix I.

In the 1980s, NWS began a nationwide modernization program to upgrade

weather observing systems such as satellites and radars, to design and

develop advanced computer workstations for forecasters, and to

reorganize its field office structure. The goals of the modernization were to

achieve more uniform weather services across the nation, improve

forecasting, provide more reliable detection and prediction of severe

weather and flooding, permit more cost-effective operations through staff

and office reductions, and achieve higher productivity.

1Commissioning involves performing a series of tests on a system with the goal of certifying that the system

can be used in an official capacity.

National Weather

Service Modernization
Page 2 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

The modernization includes five major system development programs

which, when combined with NWS’ new facilities and restructuring

activities, are expected to cost about $4.5 billion. I would like to briefly

describe each of the five major systems development programs.

Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD). This program acquired,

deployed, and commissioned 125 Doppler radars at NWS sites by 1996.

NWS reported that the cost of this program was about $800 million.2 These

radar systems have helped NWS increase the accuracy and timeliness of

warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and other hazardous

weather events. More recently, NWS initiated product improvements,

including moving NEXRAD from a proprietary to an open systems

architecture.3

Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). This program acquired

systems to collect, process, display, and transmit surface weather

conditions, such as temperature and precipitation. NWS began deploying

this system to 314 locations in 1992, and to date has commissioned all but

one of them.4 Additionally, NWS has been working on system

improvements—such as enhancing the measurement of frozen

precipitation. NWS reported that the cost of its ASOS program was

approximately $150 million.5

Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). This program

is to acquire systems to integrate—for the first time—satellite, radar, and

other data to support weather forecaster decisionmaking and

communications. Originally planned to be developed incrementally in a

series of six “builds,” AWIPS was deployed in June 1999 after the fourth

build—with less than the full functionality AWIPS was planned to

provide—at 152 locations, at a cost of $539 million. In January 2000, NWS

started commissioning these systems, and expects to complete this

process by the end of August 2000.6 Thereafter, NWS plans to

2NWS also managed the procurement of NEXRAD radar systems for the Air Force and the Federal Aviation

Administration (FAA). The total cost of the program–including 125 NWS, 29 Air Force, and 12 FAA radars–

was approximately $1.4 billion.

3An open systems architecture emphasizes commercially supported products based on publicly available

specifications and standards, instead of vendor specific ones.

4NWS has not yet commissioned ASOS at Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean, due to problems with the

communications system on the island. Program officials now plan to commission this system in May 2000.

5NWS also managed the procurement of 678 ASOS units for FAA and the Department of Defense. The

estimated cost of the total ASOS program was about $350 million.

6NWS plans to commission AWIPS units in 139 locations. The remaining AWIPS units are located in nonoperating sites—such as test beds and training facilities—and so will not be commissioned.
Page 3 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

decommission the system that AWIPS replaces, the Automation of Field

Operations and Services system. AWIPS is discussed in more detail later in

this testimony.

Central computer upgrades. NWS has historically relied on advanced

computers to run numerical models of the atmosphere. Such models are

used to support weather analyses, warnings, and forecasts. When NWS

began planning its modernization, it determined that existing “class VI”7

computers did not possess sufficient capacity to allow improvements in

warnings and forecasts, and therefore included in the modernization a

program to upgrade its processing capability to class VII computers. This

program is now complete, and NWS reported that the program cost

$106 million through fiscal year 1999. Looking to the future of the

program, in October 1998 NWS awarded a $35.6 million contract to lease a

new, high-performance supercomputer—a class VIII—to run its

environmental models from 1999 through 2002. The agency does not

consider this new undertaking as part of its official modernization.

Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

(GOES-Next). NOAA’s original series of GOES satellites began identifying

and tracking severe weather events, such as hurricanes, in 1975. Because

this series was approaching the end of its useful life when NWS began

planning its modernization, the agency included NOAA’s program to

develop a new series of satellites, called GOES-Next, in the modernization.

GOES-Next is a program to acquire, launch, and control five geostationary

satellites—designated GOES-I through GOES-M.8 NOAA estimates that this

program will cost about $2 billion. The first satellite under this series was

launched in 1994, and the last two are scheduled to be launched in May

2000 and July 2001, respectively. NOAA is currently planning the next

series of GOES satellites, discussed in more detail later in this testimony.

In 1995, we designated the NWS modernization a high-risk information

technology investment because of its estimated cost, its complexity, its

criticality to NWS’ mission of helping to protect life and property through

early forecasting and warnings of potentially dangerous weather, and its

past problems—documented in several of our reports.9 Our 1997 high-risk

series reported that although the development and deployment of the

7According to NWS, a “class VI” computer represents the sixth generation of high-speed computers, with each

generation representing a substantial increase in computational power over the prior generation.

8Weather satellites are given alphabetic designations until they are launched; they are then assigned numbers in

the series. For example, after it was launched, the name GOES-J was changed to GOES-9.

9High-Risk Series: An Overview (GAO/HR-95-1, February 1995).
Page 4 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

major systems making up the modernization were nearing completion,

unresolved issues remained.10 For example, NEXRAD radars were not

always up and running when severe weather threatened, and ASOS fell

short of user expectations.

We recommended that NWS correct these shortfalls, and the agency has

made progress in addressing them. NWS has since reported that despite

specific performance problems, its new radars and satellites have enabled

it to generate better data and greatly improved forecasts and warnings. For

example, before the modernization, two California counties experienced

18 flash flood events between January 1992 and December 1994. No

advance warnings were issued for any of these events. However, after the

installation of modernization equipment, these two counties received

advance warning for 17 out of 22 reported flash floods that occurred

between January 1995 and February 1998. The average warning lead time

for these events was over 2 hours.

Such success notwithstanding, areas of concern remain. Most recently, our

1999 high-risk series reported that although NWS was nearing completion

of its modernization, we continued to view the modernization as a highrisk area for two primary reasons: (1) NWS still needed to deliver on the

final piece of the modernization—AWIPS, and (2) NWS lacked an overall

architecture to guide future systems development.11 At this point, I would

like to discuss these issues in more detail.

Over the last several years, AWIPS—the linchpin of NWS’ modernization—

has encountered cost overruns and schedule delays. In 1995, NWS

estimated that the cost to develop AWIPS was $525 million, and that it

would be fully deployed by 1999. In 1996, we pointed out the inaccuracy of

this estimate due to the omission of several cost factors, including known

contract increases.12 The Department of Commerce later committed to a

$550-million funding cap. However, we testified in April 1997 that costs

were likely to exceed even this amount, given the size and complexity of

the system’s development.13 In response to our recommendation, the

10High-Risk Series: Information Management and Technology (GAO/HR-97-9, February 1997).

11High-Risk Series: An Update (GAO/HR-99-1, January 1999).

12 Weather Service Forecasting: Recommendations to Address New Weather Processing System Development

Risks (GAO/AIMD-96-74, May 13, 1996) and Weather Forecasting: New Processing System Faces

Uncertainties and Risks (GAO/T-AIMD-96-47, February 29, 1996).

13Weather Service Modernization: Risks Remain That Full Systems Potential Will Not Be Achieved

(GAO/T-AIMD-97-85, April 24, 1997).

After Years of Cost

Increases and Delays, a

Version of AWIPS Has

Been Deployed but Further

Upgrades Are Planned
Page 5 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

department contracted for an independent cost estimate of AWIPS. The

resulting February 1998 assessment reported that the likely cost to

complete AWIPS through its final build—build six—was $618 million. In

March 1998, we reported that although AWIPS was planned for full

deployment through build six in 1999, this schedule was in doubt. When

we testified early last year, NWS planned to deploy AWIPS’ fourth build—

actually build 4.2—by June 1999, within the $550 million cap. At that time,

completion dates for builds five and six were uncertain.

AWIPS has now been deployed—with less than full functionality—to NWS

field sites. In June 1999, NWS completed deployment of build 4.2 to 152

sites, and subsequently issued additional software releases to correct

isolated problems—at a total reported cost of $539 million. Subsequently,

the agency began commissioning these systems in January 2000, and plans

to commission the final site by the end of August 2000. As of March 15,

2000, NWS reported that 25 AWIPS sites had been commissioned. Agency

officials stated that AWIPS’ fourth build provides immediate benefits—

including improved forecasts and warnings and a reduction in staff.

However, they acknowledge that build four provides less than the full

functionality that AWIPS was planned to provide. For example, it does not

provide weather forecasters with a full range of interactive forecast

preparation techniques, such as allowing forecasters to enter human

weather observations into radar-based warning tools.

To provide additional functionality, NWS is now designing and developing

a fifth AWIPS build. This build is to provide radar and infrastructure

enhancements that will allow more efficient, improved forecasts and a

further reduction in staff. An August 1998 independent review team report

noted that build five’s requirements were essential to NWS’ core mission

because they will allow forecasters to assimilate critical radar and satellite

data, and will ensure that weather forecasting offices can back each other

up during catastrophic outages. The review team estimated that the cost to

complete build five would range from an additional $20 to $25 million.

NWS plans to deploy build five capabilities in three separate releases—

builds 5.0, 5.1, and 5.2—beginning in January 2001, November 2001, and

September 2002, respectively.

As for build six, in accordance with the independent review team’s

recommendation that the build not proceed until its requirements are

better defined, NWS has deferred its plans. NWS officials report that the

agency will submit requirements and funding needs for additional

capabilities when they have been determined.
Page 6 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

A systems architecture, or overall blueprint, is widely recognized as an

essential tool for guiding effective and efficient systems development and

evolution. We initially reported in 1994 that the NWS modernization

needed such an architecture.14 This lack of a systems architecture had led

to incompatibilities among component systems’ communications

protocols and application languages, and resulted in more difficulty and

expense to maintain these systems. Even now, as NWS is completing its

modernization, an overall architecture is important because component

systems will continue to evolve to meet additional demands and to take

advantage of improved technology. Without an architecture, NWS’

modernization is likely to continue to experience higher costs and reduced

performance.

NWS initially agreed with our recommendation to develop a systems

architecture and, in April 1997, issued a plan for developing and using one.

However, the agency did not meet any of the target dates in the plan,

partially due to lack of management attention.

This problem has since been remedied. As we testified last year, the

assistant administrator for weather services stated that NWS planned to

intensify its efforts to develop a systems architecture.15 Subsequently,

NWS assembled a systems architecture team to develop its portion of

NOAA’s information technology architecture. NWS officials estimate that

the first version of this architecture will be issued by the end of September

2000.

Mr. Chairman, you also asked that we discuss NOAA’s acquisition strategy

for its Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)

program. GOES satellites are an integral part of weather forecasting

because they are strategically positioned at specific locations above the

earth to observe the development of severe weather—such as hurricanes

and thunderstorms—and provide information allowing forecasters to issue

timely and accurate weather warnings. To ensure adequate satellite

coverage, NOAA procures several similar satellites at a time—called a

series—and plans to launch individual satellites before older satellites are

expected to reach the end of their useful lives. Figure 1 illustrates NOAA’s

current and planned series of satellites.

14Weather Forecasting: Systems Architecture Needed for National Weather Service Modernization

(GAO/AIMD-94-28, March 11, 1994).

15Department of Commerce: National Weather Service Modernization and NOAA Fleet Issues

(GAO/T-AIMD/GGD-99-97, February 24, 1999).

NWS Is Now Developing

an Overall Systems

Architecture

NOAA Geostationary

Operational

Environmental

Satellite (GOES)

Program
Page 7 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

Figure 1: NOAA’s Current and Planned GOES Satellites

(I-M) Series

GOES N-Q Series

GOES R-U Series

‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘2 ‘25 6

Actual/Planned Launch Date

Current/Expected Life Span

GOES-Next

GOES-8

GOES-9

GOES-10

GOES-L

GOES-M

GOES-N

GOES-O

GOES-P

GOES-Q

GOES-R

GOES-S

GOES-T

GOES-U

‘27 ‘28 ‘29

Earliest Possible Launch Date, if Needed

Legend
Page 8 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

At this point, I would like to discuss in more detail NOAA’s current

satellite series and its plans for the future.

NOAA experienced severe technological problems, massive cost overruns,

and dangerous schedule delays in its development of the five GOES

satellites in the current series, designated GOES-I through M. In 1997 we

reported that the overall development cost of the program was over three

times greater than planned, escalating from $640 million to approximately

$2 billion.16 Additionally, the launch of GOES-I, which had been planned

for July 1989, did not occur until April 1994. This nearly 5-year schedule

delay left NOAA in danger of temporarily losing geostationary satellite

coverage.17

To help ensure adequate satellite coverage, we recommended that NOAA

(1) clarify its criteria for activating replacement spacecraft in the event of

the failure of an operational GOES satellite or any of its instruments or

subsystems, (2) reexamine the agency’s strategy for anticipating possible

launch failures, and (3) consider scheduling backups for all future

launches. NOAA agreed with our recommendations and documented

official criteria for activating replacement spacecraft in the event of the

failure of an operational GOES satellite. The agency also implemented a

new launch backup strategy to have two operational satellites, an on-orbit

spare, and a spacecraft ready for launch 1 year after the previous launch.

NOAA has now successfully deployed the first three satellites in the series,

but not without difficulty. It launched GOES-8, 9, and 10 in 1994, 1995, and

1997, respectively. In accordance with its strategy to ensure satellite

coverage, NOAA planned that GOES-10 would be an orbital backup

satellite. However, in July 1998, GOES-9 began to exhibit signs of

imminent failure well before the end of its expected 5-year lifespan, and

was taken out of operation and placed in orbital storage. GOES-10 was

then pressed into service. During this time, NOAA was able to maintain full

satellite coverage.

Today, however, continued GOES weather satellite coverage is at risk.

GOES-L was scheduled for launch in March 1999, but—because of a

16Weather Satellites: Planning for the Geostationary Satellite Program Needs More Attention (GAO/

AIMD-97-37, March 13, 1997).

17NOAA was able to avoid a gap in coverage by borrowing a European satellite and by continuing to use the

last satellite in the original series—GOES-7—which proved to be especially robust and was able to continue

working beyond its expected lifespan.

GOES-Next (I Through M):

History, Status, and

Challenges
Page 9 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

problem with its launch vehicle engines18—was rescheduled for May 2000.

While waiting for the GOES-L launch, NOAA has continued to rely on

GOES-8 and GOES-10 for operational satellite coverage. However, GOES-8

is now operating beyond its expected 5-year lifespan—it will be 6 years old

next month—and is using several backup systems in cases where primary

systems have failed. NOAA officials state that if GOES-8 fails before

GOES-L is launched, GOES-9 could be reactivated. Recent tests, however,

suggest that GOES-9 may perform for only a few weeks before it fails.

According to NOAA officials, continued operational satellite coverage will

be at risk until GOES-L is launched in May 2000.

As for future plans, NOAA expects to launch GOES-M, the last in the

current spacecraft series, in July 2001. Because GOES-10, L, and M are

expected to reach the end of their useful lives as early as 2002, 2005, and

2006, respectively, NOAA is procuring replacements for these satellites.

The next four GOES satellites have been designated GOES-N through Q.

NOAA has awarded contracts for up to four satellites in the GOES-N

through Q series. GOES-N and GOES-O comprise the base contract, with

separate options available for GOES-P and GOES-Q. The total cost of the

GOES-N through Q series, including ground support and program

management, is estimated to be about $2.4 billion.

Because of NOAA’s need to get the N-Q series underway quickly to ensure

continued satellite coverage, the environmental sensing instruments on

GOES-N, O, and P will be near-clones of the ones in GOES-I through M.19

NOAA is considering using advanced instruments on the last of the series,

GOES-Q, if funding is available. NOAA also plans to deploy one additional

instrument, a solar x-ray imager, on two of the four GOES-N through Q

satellites.20

Planned launch dates for GOES-N through Q are October 2002, April 2005,

April 2007, and April 2010, respectively. Given that any satellite may

18According to the GOES program manager, the GOES-L spacecraft was one of several launches delayed by

the failure of a similar rocket engine on May 4, 1999. The program manager reported that corrective action was

taken and five launches since then have been successful.

19GOES I through M use imaging and sounding instruments to monitor and measure the weather.

20The solar x-ray imager is used to determine when to issue forecasts and alerts of “space weather”

conditions that may interfere with astronauts, space systems, and ground-based commercial electric

power distribution systems.

GOES-N Through Q: Status

and Challenges
Page 10 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

experience problems in orbit or upon launch, and the agency’s historical

problems in transitioning to the GOES-I through M series of satellites,

adequate coverage will likely continue to be at risk until the first of the

GOES-N through Q satellites are successfully launched.

In order to ensure satellite coverage after the GOES-N through Q series

reaches the end of its useful life, NOAA is now considering how best to

plan the procurement of a follow-up series of satellites—called GOES-R

through U. In 1997, we reported that NOAA did not have a program

underway to develop a new spacecraft series to follow GOES-N through Q

and stated that the agency needed to begin planning if it were to take

advantage of new spacecraft and instrument technologies.

NOAA has since reported that the agency expanded studies of alternative

architectures and advanced technologies for GOES-R through U, and now

envisions that the GOES-R through U satellites will have several

improvements over previous GOES satellites. These improvements include

a 7-year expected operational life for each satellite, advanced

environmental sensing equipment, and increased data-processing capacity

in the spacecraft and ground systems. The agency plans to begin funding a

program to support the GOES-R through U procurement in fiscal year

2003. NOAA officials estimate that they would award initial instrument

contracts in 2000 and a spacecraft contract in about 2006, with planned

launch dates for GOES-R, S, T, and U in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022,

respectively.

In summary, NWS faces significant tasks in the coming year—both in

commissioning and developing additional capabilities for AWIPS, and in

developing a systems architecture. Further, NOAA must continue to

deploy additional weather satellites and plan for future satellites if it is to

ensure the continuity of the GOES program.

This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any

questions that you or other members of the Subcommittee may have at

this time.

If you have any questions regarding this testimony, please contact Joel

Willemssen at (202) 512-6408 or by e-mail at willemssenj.aimd@gao.gov.

Individuals making key contributions to this testimony include Timothy

Case, Barbarol James, and Colleen Phillips.

GOES-R Through GOES-U:

Status and Plans

Contact and

Acknowledgments
Page 11 GAO/T-AIMD-00-86

The objectives of our review were to identify the status of (1) NWS’

modernization program, with special focus on AWIPS and NWS’ systems

architecture, and (2) the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and

Information Service’s (NESDIS) GOES program.

To address the first objective, we obtained and reviewed documentation

on the history, status, and plans for the key modernization systems, and

interviewed NWS officials. We also observed a demonstration of AWIPS

build 4.2 functions. To address the second objective, we obtained and

reviewed documentation on the GOES program history, future plans, and

budget estimates, and interviewed NOAA and NESDIS officials. In

addition, we obtained comments from NOAA, NWS, and NESDIS

officials—including the AWIPS program manager, the GOES program

manager, and the GOES systems acquisition officer—on a draft of this

statement. These officials generally agreed with the facts as presented and

provided some technical corrections, which we have incorporated.

We performed our work in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area

between January and March 2000, in accordance with generally accepted

government auditing standards.

(511826)

Appendix I

Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
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