GAO

United States General Accounting Office

Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee 

on the Census, Committee on 

Government Reform, House of 

Representatives

September 1999 2000 CENSUS

Analysis of Fiscal Year 

2000 Amended Budget 

Request

GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291

Page 1 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Contents

Letter 3

Appendixes Appendix I: Briefing on the Analysis of the Census Bureau’s 

Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget Request 20

Appendix II: Comments From the Department of Commerce 65

Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgements 70

Tables Table 1: Comparison of the Bureau’s Original and Amended

Budget Request 15

Figures Figure 1: Census Full-Cycle Cost per Housing Unit—Fiscal Years

1970 to 2000 (in constant fiscal year 1998 dollars) 8

Figure 2: Increase in Housing Units Visited Between the Original

and Amended Budget Requests 11

Abbreviations

ACE Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation

FTE full-time equivalent

ICM Integrated Coverage Measurement

LCO Local Census Office

MOU Memorandum of Understanding

TQA Telephone Questionnaire Assistance
Page 2 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Page 3 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

United States General Accounting Office

Washington, D.C. 20548

Accounting and Information

Management Division

B-283148 Leter

September 22, 1999

The Honorable Dan Miller

Chairman

Subcommittee on the Census

Committee on Government Reform

House of Representatives

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The decennial census is the nation’s most comprehensive and expensive 

data-gathering program. The Constitution requires a decennial census of 

the population in order to apportion seats in the House of Representatives. 

Public and private decisionmakers also use census data on population 

counts and social and economic characteristics for a variety of purposes. 

Since 1970, the Census Bureau has used essentially the same methodology 

to count the vast majority of the population during the decennial census. 

The bureau develops an address list of the nation’s households and mails 

census forms (questionnaires) to those households asking the occupants to 

mail back the completed forms. The bureau hires temporary census takers, 

known as enumerators, by the hundreds of thousands to gather the 

requested information for each nonresponding household.1

For the 2000 census, the bureau planned to augment the traditional census 

methodology with statistical estimation to develop a unified census count. 

In November 1997, in the Department of Commerce and Related Agencies 

Appropriations Act for 1998, the Congress questioned the constitutionality 

of using statistical sampling and directed the bureau to plan to implement a 

census in 2000 without using statistical methods. The Census Bureau 

reported to the Congress on possible components in a traditional census 

plan in April 1998. However, the bureau did not begin detailed budgeting for 

a nonsampling-based census until after the Supreme Court ruled that the 

Census Act2 prohibited the use of statistical sampling for purposes of 

determining the population count used to apportion the House of 

Representatives.

1

The bureau refers to this activity as “nonresponse follow-up.”

2

13 U.S.C. 195.
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Page 4 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

As recently as August 1997, the bureau estimated that without sampling, 

the cost of the 2000 census would increase by $675 million to $800 million 

and would be less accurate than the 1990 census. Following the Supreme 

Court’s decision, in June 1999, the bureau requested an increase of over 

$1.7 billion to its original fiscal year 2000 budget request of nearly

$2.8 billion. Your office advised us that the information provided by the 

bureau did not provide a satisfactory explanation of how this amended 

budget request was developed and the reasons for the $1.7 billion 

requested increase. 

As a result of this greater than expected increase in the bureau’s fiscal year 

2000 budget and your need for additional information, you requested that 

we (1) provide an overall analysis of the key changes in assumptions 

resulting in the $1.7 billion requested increase, (2) provide details on the 

components of this increase and which changes, according to the bureau, 

are related and which are not related to the inability to use statistical 

sampling, and (3) describe the process the bureau used for developing the 

increase in the original fiscal year 2000 budget request and the amended 

budget request. This report provides a summary of the information 

presented at our September 15, 1999, briefing to you and the House and 

Senate appropriations subcommittees. The briefing slides in appendix I 

have been updated to incorporate additional information you requested at 

the briefing as well as information subsequently provided by the bureau. 

Also at your request, we will shortly be issuing a status report on key 

census-taking operations and preparation for the 2000 census.

Results in Brief We found that the net $1.7 billion requested increase in the original fiscal 

year 2000 budget request of $2.8 billion resulted primarily from changes in 

assumptions relating to a substantial increase in workload, reduced 

employee productivity, and increased advertising. Under the nonsampling 

design, census costs will increase because the bureau expects to follow up 

on more nonresponding households than for a sampling-based census and 

plans to use additional programs to improve coverage because it cannot 

rely on statistical methods to adjust for undercounting and other coverage 

errors. 

The bureau assumes an increased workload because the housing units that 

the bureau expects to visit have increased from an estimated 30 million to 

46 million. The 16 million increase includes visiting 12 million additional 

nonresponding housing units and 4 million additional housing units that the 

Postal Services says are vacant or nonexistent. Also contributing to the 
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workload increase are a number of programs that were not in the original 

budget. These programs are primarily aimed at improving the accuracy of 

the 2000 census through quality control operations, such as reinterviewing 

households that had been previously visited by an enumerator. However, it 

is unclear whether these additional programs will result in a 2000 census 

that is more accurate than the 1990 census. This increased workload, which 

increased costs for most bureau program activities, relates primarily to 

additional salaries, benefits, travel, data processing, infrastructure, and 

supplies.

Another key factor substantially increasing the fiscal year 2000 budget 

request is that the bureau reduced the assumed productivity of its 

temporary enumerator employees. The bureau reduced the assumed 

productivity of its enumerators by 20 percent between the original and 

amended budget requests—from 1.28 to 1.03 households per hour. This 

reduction relates to all the enumerator employees for nonresponse followup—both those employees to be hired to visit the 30 million nonresponding 

housing units in the original budget request as well as those for the 16 

million additional housing units. The bureau did not provide any 

documented internal or external quantitative analysis or other analysis to 

support the initial or revised productivity rates. This reduction was 

primarily based on senior management judgments, which the bureau 

acknowledges are very conservative, about factors such as the uncertainty 

of hiring a sufficient number of quality temporary workers in a tight labor 

market. 

Because of the assumed increase in workload and reduction in 

productivity, the total number of temporary field positions3

 increased from 

780,000 in the original budget to 1,350,000 in the amended budget request. 

The 570,000 new positions include 200,000 (35 percent) for following up on 

nonresponding households, 120,000 (21 percent) for enumerator activities 

such as counting people at homeless shelters, and 220,000 (38 percent) 

related to additional coverage improvement and quality control programs. 

(The remaining 6 percent is for various other positions.) This large number 

of positions is due in part to the expected substantial temporary employee 

turnover.

3

The number of positions does not equal the number of staff required. Some positions last 

only a few weeks, and one person can fill more than one position.
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Page 6 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

The bureau also included nearly $72 million of advertising in the amended 

budget request to increase public awareness and hopefully increase 

response rates for mailed questionnaires. However, the bureau’s amended 

budget request did not assume any cost savings from the increased 

advertising dollars in the form of increased response rate and, accordingly, 

a reduced workload. 

According to the bureau, about $1.6 billion of this increase is related and 

$100 million is not related to the inability to use statistical sampling. As 

discussed above, the additional costs primarily involve increased 

workload, reduced productivity, and increased advertising. The items 

unrelated to the sampling issue include costs not included in the original 

budget and revisions of prior estimates. For example, the bureau did not 

include $52 million for rent and long distance telephone service in the 

original budget request.

The bureau developed its $4.5 billion amended budget request for fiscal 

year 2000 using a cost model consisting of a series of interrelated software 

spreadsheets. The original and amended budget requests were developed 

using this cost model, with each estimate being developed independently 

using different versions of the cost model. The bureau derived the

$1.7 billion requested increase by calculating the net difference between 

the original budget request of $2.8 billion and the amended budget request 

of $4.5 billion.

Background The President’s fiscal year 2000 budget, which was submitted to the 

Congress on February 1, 1999, included nearly $2.8 billion for the Census 

Bureau to perform the 2000 decennial census. This original budget request 

reflected the bureau’s plan to gather information based in part on using 

statistical estimation for nonresponding households and to adjust for 

undercounting and other coverage errors. However, on January 25, 1999, 

the Supreme Court ruled that the Census Act prohibits the bureau from 

using sampling for purposes of congressional apportionment. According to 

the bureau, it must therefore enumerate an estimated 12 million additional 

nonresponding households and expand programs designed to address 

undercounting and limit other coverage errors. The bureau also plans to 

visit 4 million additional addresses for which the Postal Service has 

returned the questionnaire because it believes that the housing unit is 

vacant or nonexistent. 
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Page 7 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

In light of the need for the additional enumeration, the bureau requested a 

substantial increase to its original budget request for fiscal year 2000—

approximately $1.7 billion—for a total budget of approximately $4.5 billion. 

Thus, for purposes of apportionment, the 2000 census will be done 

similarly to those for the last several decades in which questionnaires are 

mailed to the majority of the nation’s households asking the occupants to 

mail back the completed questionnaires.4

 In addition, for the 2000 census, 

the bureau plans to incorporate statistical estimation for other purposes, 

such as providing states with information for redistricting. As part of the 

2000 census, the bureau will allow the public to respond in a variety of new 

ways, such as through a toll-free telephone number, the Internet, and 

unaddressed questionnaires made available at public locations. 

When compared to the 1970 census, the projected full-cycle cost per 

housing unit of the 2000 census will quadruple (in constant fiscal year 1998 

dollars). As shown in figure 1, the cost will nearly double from the previous 

census (1990). 

4

Referred to as a traditional census.
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Page 8 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Figure 1: Census Full-Cycle Cost per Housing Unit—Fiscal Years 1970 to 2000 (in 

constant fiscal year 1998 dollars) 

Note: Cost per housing unit is based on the full-cycle cost of performing a decennial census. The 2000 

decennial census cycle began the year after the 1990 decennial census and is estimated to end in 

2003. Therefore, the cost per housing unit for the 2000 census is based on reported costs incurred for 

fiscal years 1991 through 1998, the fiscal year 1999 total enacted appropriations, the fiscal year 2000 

amended budget request, and the bureau’s estimate of costs for fiscal years beyond 2000. The 2000 

census estimate assumes 119 million total households. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) price 

index was used to adjust for inflation.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

The accuracy of the 1990 census decreased compared to the 1980 census. 

Specifically, the net undercount for the 1990 census was estimated at 1.6 

percent of the population (about 4 million persons) compared to 1.2 

percent for the 1980 census. The bureau estimated that about 4.4 million 

persons were counted twice, and other improper inclusions, in 1990, while 

8.4 million were missed. Moreover, the sum of these numbers—

12.8 million—represents a minimum tally of gross errors since it does not 

include other errors, such as persons assigned to the wrong locations.

24

13

31

56 60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Cost per housing

unit

1970 1980 1990 2000 (Est.)
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Page 9 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Scope and 

Methodology

We interviewed bureau officials who provided us with an overview of the 

budget formulation process for developing the $4.5 billion amended budget 

request. Bureau officials provided us with copies of the cost models used to 

develop the original and amended budget requests. The $1.7 billion 

requested increase represents the difference between the original and 

amended budget requests. Therefore, to ensure that the difference between 

the original and amended budget requests was supported by the two 

models, we reviewed the summarized output and structure of each model 

and verified the mathematical accuracy of the difference. We reconciled 

the output from these models to the budget request amounts to determine 

whether they mathematically agree with the original and amended budget 

requests. 

We then isolated the differences in the models by the bureau’s eight 

program activities or frameworks.5

 After isolating the differences, we 

selected for further analysis cost increases/decreases and related changes 

in assumptions that contributed most to each framework’s total net 

increase or otherwise warranted explanation. We focused our analysis on 

the “field data collection and support systems” program activity because 

nearly $1.5 billion of the $1.7 billion requested increase was related to this 

framework.

We obtained from the bureau documentation supporting or explaining the 

basis for the change in assumptions and how the increase/decrease related 

to the inability to use statistical sampling. The bureau categorized the 

components of the $1.7 billion requested increase into those it considered 

related to the statistical sampling issue and those it considered to be 

unrelated. We did not conclude whether the bureau properly categorized 

the components of the $1.7 billion requested increase as related and 

unrelated. We did not assess the efficiency or effectiveness of the bureau’s 

plans to conduct the 2000 census or validate the bureau’s data and 

assumptions used to develop the budget requests. 

We performed our work in Washington, D.C., and at the bureau’s 

headquarters in Suitland, Maryland, from June through September 1999 in 

accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

5

The bureau’s budget includes eight program activities, which are also referred to by the 

bureau as “frameworks.”
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Page 10 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Overall Observations 

on the Fiscal Year 2000 

$1.7 Billion Requested 

Increase

The bureau’s request for an additional $1.7 billion for fiscal year 2000 

primarily involves changes in assumptions related to increased workload, 

reduced employee productivity, and increased advertising. The following 

sections discuss the changes in these key assumptions between the original 

and amended budget requests.

Key Assumption—Increased 

Workload 

An assumed increase in workload substantially increased costs in the fiscal 

year 2000 amended budget request for enumerator and support salaries, 

benefits, travel, data capture requirements, infrastructure, and supplies. 

The primary reason for the increase in workload is the bureau’s plan to visit 

an additional 16 million households using a traditional census approach 

instead of sampling to estimate these housing units. Also adding to the 

workload are additional programs intended to improve the coverage and 

quality of the census.

The bureau’s amended budget request assumes that it will enumerate the

12 million nonresponding housing units that under the original budget 

request would have been statistically estimated. The bureau also estimated 

that the Postal Service would determine that of the 119 million total 

estimated housing units, about 6 million would be vacant or nonexistent. 

The purpose of visiting these 6 million housing units is to confirm that the 

Postal Service was correct in concluding that a housing unit was vacant or 

nonexistent. In 1990, the bureau found that about 20 to 30 percent of the 

housing units identified as vacant or nonexistent were actually occupied. 

As shown in figure 2, under the original budget request, the bureau 

assumed that it would visit only 2 million of the 6 million housing units and 

that the remaining 4 million housing units would be accounted for through 

statistical estimation. Under the amended budget request, the bureau 

assumes that it will visit all 6 million housing units.
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Page 11 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Figure 2: Increase in Housing Units Visited Between the Original and Amended 

Budget Requests

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

Also contributing to the workload increase are a number of programs 

intended to improve the coverage and quality of the census that were not in 

the original budget request. According to the bureau, these programs were 

added to improve the accuracy of the 2000 census since the bureau would 

be using a traditional approach and attempting to obtain information 

directly from all 119 million estimated households. In the bureau’s original 

budget request, statistical estimation was intended to improve the accuracy 

of the 2000 census by adjusting census counts for undercounting and other 

coverage errors. 

An example of an additional program includes reinterviewing a sample of 

housing units for which enumerators had previously completed census Housing units (in millions)

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Original Revised

Budget

Nonresponding housing units Questionnaires returned by Postal Service

30

46

40

6

2

28
B-283148

Page 12 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

questionnaires. This program, which is budgeted to cost $22.7 million, 

involves sampling housing units with questionnaires completed by 

enumerators, reinterviewing to confirm responses, and adjusting the 

responses to the census questionnaires to correct any errors found. 

Another program, budgeted at $25.2 million, involves attempting to 

redeliver certain census questionnaires that are returned by the Postal 

Service. This program is targeted at housing units that have a change in 

address or zip code between the fall of 1999, when the bureau delivers its 

address files to its printing vendors, and March 2000, when questionnaires 

are to be delivered. According to the bureau, the improved coverage and 

accuracy resulting from these programs would have been accounted for in 

the original plan through statistical estimation techniques. Although the 

programs the bureau added in the amended budget request are intended to 

improve the accuracy of the 2000 census, it is unclear whether these 

additional programs will result in a 2000 census that is more accurate than 

the 1990 census.

It is important to note that another key assumption—the average mail 

response rate for all questionnaire types—remained constant between the 

original and amended budget requests at 61 percent. Given an estimated 

119 million households in the census population, a 1-percent change in the 

response rate increases or decreases the number of households that must 

be enumerated by about 1.2 million. The mail response rate has decreased 

substantially in recent years, dropping from 78 percent in 1970 to 65 

percent in 1990. If the response rate is substantially different from the 61 

percent that the bureau projects, assuming that all other assumptions 

prove to be accurate, the bureau’s fiscal year 2000 amended budget request 

could differ substantially from the bureau’s needs. 

Key Assumption—Reduced 

Productivity

A significant factor increasing the bureau’s budget request is a 20-percent 

reduction in the assumed productivity rate for temporary employee 

enumerators following up on nonresponding housing units. In the original 

budget request, the bureau used an average productivity rate of about 1.28 

households per hour, which was reduced in the amended budget request to 

about 1.03. This revised productivity rate was applied to all temporary 

enumerator employees for nonresponse follow-up—both those to be hired 

to visit the 30 million housing units under the original budget request as 

well as those for the additional 16 million housing units added after the use 

of sampling for nonresponse follow-up was prohibited by the Census Act.
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The bureau provided several explanations for reducing the assumed 

enumerator productivity rate from 1.28 in the original budget request to 

1.03 in the amended budget request. For example, the bureau believes that 

given the low unemployment rate in the United States, hiring temporary 

employees to fill hundreds of thousands of new positions is expected to 

result in the hiring of less productive workers. In addition, the bureau 

believes enumerators will work slower in order to avoid mistakes knowing 

that they are being reviewed in a more thorough and formal manner as part 

of the additional quality control programs. Also, the bureau assumed an 

increase in rework resulting from added quality control programs.

The bureau did not provide any documented internal or external 

quantitative analysis or other analysis that supported the original or the 

revised productivity rate. Consequently, the 20-percent reduction in 

productivity is based on senior management judgments, which the bureau 

acknowledges are very conservative.

Because of the increased workload and reduced productivity, the bureau 

increased the total number of temporary field positions from the 780,000 

estimated in the original budget to 1,350,000. This increase in positions 

does not necessarily mean that the bureau is hiring 570,000 additional 

people. Many positions exist for only a few weeks; thus some individuals 

can be, and are, hired for more than one position. Of the 570,000 increase, 

about 200,000 positions (35 percent) are for nonresponse follow-up and 

120,000 (21 percent) are for enumeration-related activities such as counting 

people at homeless shelters; 220,000 positions (38 percent) are for added 

coverage improvement and quality control programs. (The remaining 6 

percent includes various other positions.)

Key Assumption—

Additional Advertising

The bureau included nearly $72 million for advertising intended to increase 

questionnaire responses, including advertising that will be targeted at hardto-enumerate communities. This additional advertising was primarily 

intended to educate the public on the 2000 census and to increase the mail 

response rate for questionnaires and thus reduce the bureau’s workload.

The bureau’s original budget request included about $56 million for a paid 

advertising program in fiscal year 2000. The bureau intends to use the 

additional $72 million for motivational programs intended to increase the 

mail-in response rate and for an expanded “Census in the Schools” 

program. An example of how the bureau plans to spend this money 

includes a planned educational message, delivered several weeks before 
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Page 14 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

the data collection period, reminding residents in the hard-to-enumerate 

communities about the benefits of participating in the census process. 

Also, advertising is to be targeted to run concurrent with the follow-up 

visits to nonresponding households so that enumerators have a better 

chance of successfully gaining access to households and completing 

census forms.

The bureau has no data available to support how much, if any, the 

increased advertising will increase the response rate. As a result, the 

bureau’s assumed average questionnaire response rate of 61 percent in the 

original budget request did not increase in the amended budget request. 

Thus, the bureau has assumed no cost savings in the form of increased 

response rate and resultant reduced workload from the increased 

advertising dollars.

Components of the 

$1.7 Billion Increase 

Related and Unrelated 

to the Sampling Issue

According to the bureau, about $1.6 billion of the $1.7 billion requested 

increase is related to the inability to use statistical sampling, and the 

remaining $104 million is not related. Unrelated items include costs not 

included in the original budget request and revisions of prior estimates. 

Examples of items unrelated to the decision include the following:

• $29 million for leasing of common space,

• $23 million for long-distance telephone service,

• $16 million for improving address lists and delivering questionnaires, 

and

• $10 million for copier paper and map supplies.

We did not conclude whether the bureau properly categorized components 

of the $1.7 billion requested increase as related and unrelated. The briefing 

slides in appendix I provide a detailed discussion by program activity (or 

framework) of the components of the $1.7 billion requested increase.

Process Used to 

Develop the Fiscal Year 

2000 Amended Budget 

Request

To develop the amended fiscal year 2000 budget request, the bureau used a 

model that consisted of an extensive set of interrelated software 

spreadsheets. Both the original and amended budget requests were 

developed with this cost model, with each estimate being developed 

independently using different versions of the cost model. The process the 

bureau used to develop the amended budget request involved (1) revising 

key assumptions in the cost model supporting the original budget request 
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Page 15 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

that were based on the statistical estimation approach for nonresponse 

follow-up to improve accuracy and (2) incorporating new assumptions 

based on a traditional census approach. As shown in table 1, the bureau 

derived the $1.7 billion requested increase by calculating the net difference 

between the original budget request of $2.8 billion and the amended budget 

request of $4.5 billion. The output from the bureau’s models mathematically 

agrees with the original and amended budget requests.

Table 1: Comparison of the Bureau’s Original and Amended Budget Request 

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

The bureau’s budget estimation model is a set of 16 spreadsheets with 

thousands of separate formulas that generate estimates for specific census 

program activities. The formulas generate outputs for items such as 

salaries and benefits, travel, and advertising based on hundreds of different 

assumptions. The model serves as a collection point for field costs as well 

as headquarters and other costs estimated outside the model. Of the

$4.5 billion amended budget request, about $1.05 billion (23 percent) was 

calculated outside the model. This $1.05 billion includes costs for 

headquarters activities and contracts. The assumptions are developed by 

program managers and are generally based on either third party evidence, 

such as independent studies, or senior management’s judgment.

Dollars in millions

Program activity (or framework)

Original

budget

request

Amended

budget

request

Requested

increase

1. Program development and management $28 $31 $3

2. Data content and products 195 195 0

3. Field data collection and support systems 2,023 3,474 1,451

4. Address list development 34 44 10

5. Automated data processing and

 telecommunications support 341 477 136

6. Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal 21 21 0

7. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific Areas 37 71 34

8. Marketing, communications, and partnerships 111 200 89

Total requested amount $2,790 $4,513 $1,723
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Page 16 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Agency Comments and 

Our Evaluation

We provided a draft of this report to the Department of Commerce for 

comment. As requested, the Director of the Bureau of the Census provided 

written comments on behalf of the department in 2 days. (See appendix II.) 

We appreciate the bureau’s rapid response to the draft and its overall 

cooperation and timely responses to our data requests. In commenting on a 

draft of this report, the bureau concurred with the facts as presented in the 

report and provided its perspective on four matters, which we address 

below.

First, the bureau stated that in addition to serving primarily as the provider 

of apportionment counts, the 2000 census has three other major 

components of unique usefulness to the American public−providing data to 

be used for legislative redistricting, federal housing surveys, and 

distribution of federal funds. We agree with the bureau that these other 

components of the 2000 census are important. However, the purpose of our 

report was to analyze the bureau’s overall amended budget request with a 

focus on the $1.7 billion requested increase. Given that objective, our 

report focused on activities that resulted in the substantial increase in the 

bureau’s original fiscal year 2000 budget request. As our analysis shows, the 

net $1.7 billion requested increase was primarily related to the bureau’s 

assumptions of increased workload, reduced employee productivity, and 

increased advertising. We did not see any substantial cost increases related 

to redistricting, federal housing surveys, and distribution of federal funds.

Second, the bureau noted that the current plan for the 2000 census contains 

components of both a traditional and a sampling methodology. In addition, 

the bureau noted that beginning in November 1997, it devoted a substantial 

effort in planning (on a dual track basis) for a census based entirely on a 

traditional methodology. Based on our review of the bureau’s fiscal year 

2000 amended budget request, we agree that the 2000 census includes 

components of both traditional and sampling methodologies. However, the 

increase in the estimated cost of the 2000 census is driven primarily by 

factors relating to a traditional census. The $1.7 billion requested increase 

in the bureau’s fiscal year 2000 budget is net of a decrease of over

$200 million related to the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) 

program. The purpose of ACE in the amended budget request is primarily 

to estimate the population for purposes such as redistricting by sampling 

households from an address list developed independently from the list used 

to perform the census. Under the bureau’s original budget request, the 

results of ACE (formerly Integrated Coverage Measurement) were to have 

been statistically combined with the results of enumeration to provide a 
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Page 17 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

single, integrated set of population counts. Evaluating the bureau’s 

planning for a “dual track” census was beyond the scope of our work. 

Third, the bureau provided its perspective on the reasons why the full-cycle 

cost per housing unit of the 2000 census is projected to nearly double when 

compared to the 1990 census. The bureau pointed to such factors as normal 

inflationary increases, infrastructure, federal wage increases, declining 

response rate, paid advertising, postage, and information technology. It is 

important to note that our analysis eliminates the impact of general 

inflation and the growth in housing units over the last 4 decades. Thus, our 

comparison of full-cycle cost per housing unit is an “apples to apples” 

comparison. The purpose of showing this comparison is to provide a 

historical perspective on the real increase in the full-cycle cost per housing 

unit of the decennial census. Providing an analysis of the reasons for the 

substantial increase of the projected cost of the 2000 census was beyond 

the scope of our review. We agree with the bureau that factors such as a 

declining mail response rate would increase the relative costs of the 

census. However, it is important to point out that the bureau was unable to 

demonstrate whether the benefits of certain activities, such as increased 

advertising and additional programs, justify their cost. In addition, the 

bureau could not say whether a 2000 census costing an estimated $56 per 

housing unit (in constant 1998 dollars) will result in a census that is more 

accurate than 1990.

Finally, the bureau stated that it believes it is prudent to assume a 

temporary enumerator employee productivity rate of 1.03 housing units per 

hour. The bureau cited the immovable calendar and the need to hire a large 

temporary labor force, the size of which is a direct result of assumed lower 

productivity. The bureau believes our use of “very conservative” leaves an 

unwarranted impression of management choices made at one end of a 

spectrum, which could be shifted to the other end of the spectrum without 

risk. Based on our analysis, we continue to conclude that the bureau’s 

productivity assumption of 1.03 is based on senior management’s “very 

conservative” judgment as was represented to us by bureau staff during our 

review. What we mean by “very conservative” is that the bureau is planning 

for a worst case scenario. As we reported, the bureau did not provide any 

documented internal or external quantitative analysis or other analysis to 

support the initial or revised productivity rates. As such, our only possible 

conclusion is that the 1.03 was developed based on management’s 

judgment, which is what bureau staff represented to us during our review. 

Because the reported productivity rate from the 1990 census was 1.56 and 

the assumption used in the original budget was 1.28, we conclude that the 
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Page 18 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

1.03 assumption used in the amended budget request, which covers not 

only the additional 16 million housing units now planned to be enumerated 

but also the 30 million housing units to be enumerated in the original 

budget, is very conservative—or a “worst case scenario.” Should the 

bureau’s productivity assumption prove to be more or less than 1.03 

housing units per hour, the bureau’s fiscal year 2000 amended budget 

request could differ substantially from the bureau’s needs.

We are sending copies of this report to Senator Fred Thompson, Senator 

Joseph Lieberman, Senator Judd Gregg, Senator Ernest Hollings, 

Representative Carolyn Maloney, Representative Dan Burton, 

Representative Henry Waxman, Representative Harold Rogers, and 

Representative José Serrano in their capacities as Chairs or Ranking 

Minority Members of Senate and House Committees and Subcommittees. 

We are also sending copies to the Honorable William M. Daley, Secretary of 

Commerce; the Honorable Kenneth Prewitt, Director of the Bureau of the 

Census; the Honorable Jacob J. Lew, Director of the Office of Management 

and Budget; and other interested parties. Copies will also be made available 

to others upon request.

If you have any questions on matters discussed in this letter, please contact 

me at (202) 512-3406. Other contacts and key contributors to this report are 

listed in appendix III.

Sincerely yours,

Gregory D. Kutz

Associate Director

Governmentwide Accounting and Financial

Management Issues
Page 19 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Page 20 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request ApendxIi

1

Accounting and Information Management

Division

Analysis of the Census Bureau’s

Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget Request

 September 15, 1999
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 21 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

2

Overview

• Background

• Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

• Overall Observations

• Components of the $1.7 Billion Requested Increase

• Process Used to Develop Fiscal Year 2000 Budget
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 22 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

3

Background

• The Constitution requires a decennial census of the population in order to

apportion seats in the House of Representatives.

• The decennial census is the nation’s most expensive data gathering program.

• Public and private decisionmakers also use census data on population counts and

social and economic characteristics for a variety of purposes.

• The bureau typically performs a “dress rehearsal” several years before the actual

census to help in its planning efforts.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 23 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

4

Background (contd)

 The Presidents fiscal year 2000 budget request, submitted to the Congress on

February 1, 1999, included nearly $2.8 billion for the decennial census.

 The bureaus original request reflected its plan to gather information based in part on

using statistical estimation for nonresponding households and to adjust for

undercounting and other coverage errors.

 On January 25, 1999, the Supreme Court ruled that the Census Act prohibits the bureau

from using statistical sampling to calculate the population used to apportion the House

of Representatives.

 Following this ruling, in June 1999, the bureau submitted an amended budget request

substantially increasing its original fiscal year 2000 budget request.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 24 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

5

Background (cont’d)

• In November 1997 in the Department of Commerce and Related Agencies Appropriations

Act for 1998, the Congress directed the bureau to begin planning for a census in 2000

without using statistical methods. However, the bureau did not begin detailed budgeting

for a nonsampling census until after the Supreme Court’s decision in January 1999.

• The 2000 census will be done in a manner similar to those for the last several decades, in

which questionnaires are delivered to identified households asking the occupants to mail

back the completed questionnaires.

• In addition, for the 2000 census the bureau plans to incorporate statistical estimation for

other purposes, such as providing states with information for redistricting.

• The public will have the option of responding via a toll-free telephone number, the

Internet, and unaddressed questionnaires placed in public locations.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 25 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

6

Background (cont’d)

• Compared to the 1970 census, the

projected full-cycle cost per housing unit

of the 2000 census will quadruple (in

constant fiscal year 1998 dollars).

• Compared to the 1990 census, the

projected full-cycle cost per housing unit

will nearly double.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data

Note: Cost per housing unit is based on the full-cycle cost of performing a decennial census. The 2000 decennial census cycle

began the year after the 1990 decennial census and is estimated to end in 2003. Therefore, the cost per housing unit for the 2000

census is based on reported costs incurred for fiscal years 1991-1998, the fiscal year 1999 total enacted appropriations, the fiscal

year 2000 amended budget request, and the bureau’s estimate of costs for fiscal years beyond 2000. The 2000 census estimate

assumes 119 million total households. The GDP price index was used to adjust for inflation.

13

24

31

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Cost per housing unit

(in constant FY 1998 dollars)

1970 1980 1990 2000

(Est.)
Appendix I

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Request

Page 26 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

7

Objectives

• Provide an overall analysis of the key changes in assumptions resulting in the $1.7 billion

requested increase.

• Provide details on the components of the $1.7 billion requested increase and which

changes, according to the bureau, are related and which are not related to the inability to

use statistical sampling.

• Describe the process used to develop the increase in the original fiscal year 2000 budget

request and the overall amended budget request.
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 27 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

8

Scope and Methodology

• Interviewed bureau officials, who provided us with an overview of the budget

formulation process.

• Reviewed copies of the cost models used to develop the original and amended

budget requests.

• Reviewed the summarized output and structure of each model and verified the

mathematical accuracy of the difference.

• Reconciled the output from the models to determine whether they mathematically

supported the original and amended budget requests.
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Request

Page 28 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

9

Scope and Methodology (cont’d)

• Obtained documentation from the bureau supporting or explaining the basis for the

changes in assumptions.

• Had the bureau categorize components of the $1.7 billion requested increase into those

related and unrelated to the inability to use statistical sampling.

• Did not conclude whether the bureau properly categorized components of the $1.7

billion requested increase as related and unrelated.

• Selected for further analysis cost increases/decreases and related changes in

assumptions that contributed most to a framework’s total net increase or otherwise

warranted explanation.
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 29 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

10

Scope and Methodology (cont’d)

• Did not assess the efficiency or effectiveness of conducting the planned 2000

census or validate the bureau’s data and assumptions used to develop the original

and amended budget requests.

• Performed our work in Washington, D.C., and at the bureau’s headquarters in

Suitland, Maryland, between June 1999 and September 1999 in accordance with

generally accepted government auditing standards.
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 30 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

11

Overall Observations

The net $1.7 billion requested increase in the bureau’s original fiscal year 2000

budget request resulted primarily from changes in assumptions relating to

• increased workload,

• reduced employee productivity, and

• increased advertising.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 31 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

12

Overall Observations

Increased workload: Housing units

• The workload change was primarily because planned housing unit visits increased

from 30 million to 46 million when sampling for nonresponse follow-up was

eliminated.

• Of the 16 million additional visits

• 12 million are for following up on nonresponding households, and

• 4 million are for housing units the bureau plans to visit because the Postal

Service believes they are vacant or nonexistent.

• In 1990, the bureau found that 20-30% of the housing units identified as vacant

or nonexistent were occupied.
Appendix I

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Request

Page 32 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

13

Overall Observations

Increased workload: Additional programs

• The bureau has added programs to improve the accuracy of the census through

coverage and quality control operations that were not in the original budget

request.

• These programs are designed to address coverage errors that statistical estimation

was intended to address.

• It is unclear whether these additional programs will result in a 2000 census that is

more accurate than the 1990 census.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 33 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

14

Overall Observations

Workload: Average mail response rate

• The average mail response rate for all questionnaire types is a key assumption.

• The bureau used a 61% assumed response rate in the original and amended budget

requests.

• The mail response rate dropped from 78% in 1970 to 65% in 1990.

• A 1 percent change in the response rate increases/decreases the number of

households that must be enumerated by 1.2 million.

• If the actual response rate is different from 61%, the bureau’s needs could differ

substantially from the amended budget request.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 34 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

15

Overall Observations

Reduced productivity

• The assumed productivity rate for all temporary enumerator employees hired to follow

up on the estimated 46 million nonresponding households decreased approximately 20%,

from 1.28 to 1.03 households per hour.

• According to bureau officials, this decrease is because

• of the uncertainty of hiring a sufficient number of quality temporary workers in a tight

labor market,

• the bureau assumes that enumerators will be more careful to avoid mistakes,

knowing that they are being reviewed in a more thorough and formal manner as part

of the added quality control programs, and

• there will be an increase in rework resulting from added quality control programs.

• The bureau did not provide us any documented internal or external quantitative analysis

or other analysis to support the initial or the revised productivity rates.

• Consequently, the 20% reduction in productivity is based on bureau management’s

judgment, which they acknowledge is very conservative.
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 35 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

16

Overall Observations

Net increase of 570,000 positions

• Based on the increased workload and reduced productivity, the

number of temporary field positions is expected to increase

from 780,000 to 1,350,000. The term position does not equate to

a person. One staff member may work in several positions

since all enumeration operations do not completely overlap

one another.

• 200,000 positions (35%) are for nonresponse follow-up

operations and 120,000 positions (21%) are for other

enumeration activities such as counting people at homeless

shelters.

• 220,000 positions (38%) are for added coverage improvement

and quality control programs.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

Types of Positions

35%

21%

6%

38%

Nonresponse follow-up

Special places (e.g., shelter, T-night, group quarters)

Additional coverage improvement and quality control

Other, net
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 36 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

17

Overall Observations

 Increased advertising costs

• The bureau increased advertising by $71.9 million.

• According to the bureau, this advertising is intended to increase public awareness

of the census and hopefully increase the mail response rate.

• The bureau has no data to show whether this advertising will increase the

response rate.

• The bureau assumed no cost savings in the form of increased response rate and,

accordingly, a reduced workload for these increased advertising dollars.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 37 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

18

Components of the $1.7 Billion Requested

Increase

The table below shows the components of the $1.723 billion increase by the eight program activities

(frameworks). The table below represents the bureau’s representation of changes related and unrelated

to the inability to use statistical sampling. We did not conclude whether the bureau properly categorized

components as related and unrelated. The following slides (see page references) provide information on

key components of these changes. Note that only selected portions of each change were analyzed.

N/A - Our analysis did not reveal any significant matters related to this framework.

Program activity (or frameworks 1-8)

Related Pages Unrelated Pages

1. Program development and management 19 $0.0 N/A

2. Data content and products 20-21 (6.3) 40

3. Field data collection and support systems 22-34 98.2 41-42

4. Address list development 35 (0.8) N/A

5. Automated data processing and telecommunications support N/A 0.0 N/A

6. Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal N/A 0.0 N/A

7. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and Pacific Areas 36-37 13.3 43

8. Marketing, communications, and partnerships 38-39 0.0 N/A

 Total requested increase $104.4

Bureau breakout

(dollars in millions)

 $3.2

6.3

1,353.1

 10.5

 136.4

0.0

 20.7

 88.4

$1,618.6
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 38 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

19

Components of Changes

Framework 1 - Program development and management

Requested increase: $3.2 million

• The requested increase includes $1.8 million in related travel and training for 25

additional full-time equivalent (FTE) project management staff and $1.4 million in

overhead and other costs. The bureau stated that this additional staff is needed to

support the additional activities and complexities involved in managing a traditional

census.

• The bureau’s amended budget request states that these funds will also enable revisions to

related management information systems.

• Added positions include program analysts, decennial specialists, and communication

positions. According to the bureau, some of these positions would be used to define the

changes needed to the Cost and Progress System.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 39 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

20

Components of Changes

Framework 2 - Data content and products

Requested increase: $6.3 million

• The bureau’s amended budget request shows no net change for this framework.

However, the $6.3 million increase shown here is offset by $6.3 million in decreases

shown on slide 40.

• The contract for the American FactFinder system increased by $3.5 million. This

system is used to tabulate and disseminate census results electronically.

• According to the bureau, this increase is related because the bureau plans to

tabulate and release two sets of data, the traditional census results and the results of

its Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation program, and provide the Internet interface

to do so.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 40 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

21

Components of Changes

Framework 2 - Data content and products (cont’d)

• This framework’s increase also includes $2.8 million for 195 FTEs for processing

requests for foreign language questionnaires.

• The bureau stated that increased promotional efforts by its partners (local

governments and community-based organizations) and publicizing the availability of inlanguage questionnaires in the bureau’s paid advertising will increase the request for

and use of these in-language questionnaires.

• The bureau’s original and amended cost models show no change in the assumed

number of additional non-English questionnaires that will be requested. The bureau had

not provided us evidence of the increased workload or how it was used to estimate this

cost increase by the end of our fieldwork.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 41 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

22

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field data collection and support systems

For this framework, we analyzed selected activities within the categories listed in the table below. The

following slides (see page references) provide our analysis of the key assumptions and data that

changed between the original and amended budget requests.

N/A - Our analysis did not reveal any significant matters related to this activity.

Activity category

Related change

 (dollars in millions) Pages

Field infrastructure 23-24

Preparation of enumerator materials N/A

Regional oversight N/A

Field enumeration 25-32

Local census office staff N/A

Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) 33-34

Telephone questionnaire assistance N/A

 Total requested increase

$168.9

 (6.9)

 41.2

 998.9

 349.4

 (208.8)

 10.4

 $1,353.1
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

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23

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field infrastructure

Requested increase: $168.9 million

• This increase is for additional office space and related supplies and services to

support the additional workload.

• To support the increase in workload, the bureau has increased the number of Local

Census Offices (LCOs) from 476 to 520.

• The bureau has assumed the need for 1,500 additional square feet per LCO to

support the expanded operations.

• The amended budget request assumes an increase in average cost per square foot

of about $7 for office space rental. The bureau stated that the increase was due to

its need for increased space for a larger number of offices in a short time frame

and to avoid having to split an LCO between two different buildings.
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field infrastructure (cont’d)

• $39.5 million is included for additional equipment, faxes, copier paper, furniture rental,

and other supplies for the LCOs.

• About $53.8 million is for field staff telephones, “Be-Counted” supplies, and other support

costs for local census offices, none of which were included in the original budget request.

• This total includes $22.6 million for telephone and other employee reimbursements for

which there was not a specifically identifiable amount in the original budget request.

• This total also includes $28.3 million to perform evaluations of the traditional census

programs. However, the bureau indicated that it has not finalized these evaluations

and did not provide us with evidence as to how this amount was estimated.

• $18.5 million is for FTS 2000 long-distance telephone costs.
Appendix I

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25

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration

• Field enumeration primarily involves the use

of temporary census employees who directly

contact the public to complete census

questionnaires. Most of this increase relates to

visiting households that did not mail back a

census questionnaire. These visits are referred

to as “nonresponse follow-up.”

• The following slides discuss these follow-up

operations and the additional coverage

improvement and quality control programs.

Requested increase: $998.9 million

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

Additional coverage improvement and quality control programs

Field Enumeration Programs

$685.0

$92.6

$221.3

Nonresponse follow-up

Other (update/leave, list/enumerate, special places)

$998.9 million

Additional coverage improvement and quality control programs
Appendix I

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Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

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26

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: nonresponse follow-up

• The $685 million increase in the cost of following up on nonresponding

households is primarily due to the following two factors:

• increase in workload for housing units visited and

• decrease in enumerator productivity.

• This increase is not due to any substantial change in assumptions for

• mail response rate (61%),

• turnover of enumerators (150%),

• enumerator production hours per day (5), or

• enumerator hourly wage rates ($10.25 - $15.25).
Appendix I

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27

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: nonresponse follow-up (cont’d)

• The workload change was primarily due to an

increase from 30 million to 46 million planned visits to

housing units when sampling was eliminated.

• The 16 million increase in the housing units includes:

• 12 million nonresponding households that would

have been statistically estimated under the

bureau’s original approach and

• 4 million addresses for questionnaires returned

by the Postal Service as vacant or nonexistent

housing units.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

6

28 40

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Original Revised

Budget

Housing units (in millions)

Questionnaires returned by Postal Service

Nonresponding housing units

46

30
Appendix I

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28

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: nonresponse follow-up (cont’d)

Because of the 16 million increase in

visits to nonresponding housing units,

the bureau assumed increased wage

and benefit costs for an additional

200,000 enumerators, crew leaders,

and assistants to spend over 33

million hours collecting information

for this operation.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

$62.0

$113.5

$36.2

$473.3

Wages

Benefits

Travel

Other

$685 million

Types of Costs

Nonresponse Follow-up 
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29

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: nonresponse follow-up (cont’d)

• The 18% decrease in productivity

rates, from 1.56 to 1.28, resulted

from the bureau’s observation of a

downward trend in the public’s

willingness to cooperate with

enumerators.

• The bureau’s decision to reduce

the assumed enumerator

productivity rates by another 20%

between the original and amended

budget requests was based on

senior management judgment,

which the bureau acknowledged

was very conservative.

Source: GAO analysis of unaudited bureau data.

2000 Census

Amended $4.5

billion request

1990 Census

Actual (Traditional)

2000 Census

Original $2.8

billion request

1.56

1.28

1.03

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Actual/Assumed Enumerator Productivity Rates

Cases per hour
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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: nonresponse follow-up (cont’d)

• Bureau officials acknowledged that their judgment about the decrease from 1.28 to 1.03

for all 46 million housing units also reflects their desire to be very conservative to

compensate for the possibility that they may be unable to hire enough enumerators at the

current hourly wage rates or they may experience turnover higher than assumed.

• Since the bureau did not assign a value to each of the factors that contributed to the 20%

decline in enumerator productivity from the original budget request, we were unable to

determine how much of the decrease in productivity was related to the bureau’s being

very conservative.

• However, reducing the productivity of the enumerators in the amended budget request

increased direct payroll costs alone by $235 million.
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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: additional programs

Requested increase: $221.3 million

• This increase is for additional programs to improve census coverage and quality assurance

procedures and thus improve the accuracy of the census. These additional programs,

which increase workload and were not included in the sampling census approach, involve,

among other things:

• $145.7 million to improve census coverage through efforts such as revisiting housing

units where an enumerator reported the housing unit to be vacant or nonexistent but

where the Postal Service was able to deliver a census questionnaire,

• $25.2 million to redeliver census questionnaires to housing units where the Postal

Service returns questionnaires as undeliverable potentially because of changes in

addresses and zip codes that occur between the fall of 1999, when the bureau’s

questionnaire address file is delivered to its printing vendors, and March 2000, when

questionnaires are delivered, and
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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field enumeration: additional programs (cont’d)

• $22.7 million to reinterview the occupants of a sample of nonresponding housing

units where census questionnaires were completed by enumerators.

• It is unclear whether these additional programs will result in a 2000 census that is

more accurate than the 1990 census.
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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE)

Requested decrease: $(208.8) million

• This decrease results from reduced staffing and related costs for ACE.

• The purpose of ACE is to estimate the population for purposes such as redistricting,

by sampling households from an address list developed independently from the list

used to perform the census.

• Under the bureau’s original plans, the results of ACE (formerly Integrated Coverage

Measurement (ICM)) were to have been statistically combined with results of the

enumeration to provide a single, integrated set of population counts.
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Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) (cont’d)

• The original workload was based on a sample size of 750,000 housing units. As a

result of not using statistical estimation for apportionment, the bureau revised its

sample size to 300,000 housing units and decreased enumerator and supervisory

staff from 50,000 to 20,000.

• The 60-percent reduction in sample size proportionally reduced the cost by

$208.8 million.
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Components of Changes

Framework 4 - Address list development

Requested increase: $10.5 million

• This framework’s net increase includes a $10.5 million increase for 370 FTEs to

determine the correct location of addresses from an expected increase in Be Counted

and Telephone Questionnaire Assistance (TQA) responses.

• The bureau stated that this increase is related because, while the bureau’s methodology

for determining the correct geographic location of addresses is the same as that planned

under the sampling census design, the bureau expects to handle a larger workload.

• However, the assumed workload for Be Counted and TQA returns, according to the

bureau’s original and amended cost models, remains unchanged at 1 million and 2

million, respectively. The bureau had not provided us evidence of the increased

workload or how it was used to estimate this cost increase by the end of our fieldwork.
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Components of Changes

 Framework 7 - Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific Areas

Requested increase: $20.7 million

• This requested increase includes $12.7 million for increased payroll and travel costs.

These additional costs are due to an increasing workload, net of a decrease in hourly

wage rates. However, 60% of the workload increase is due to the bureau’s lowering the

assumed average initial mail response rate from 65% to 50%.

• Since Puerto Rico’s representation in the House of Representatives is not based on

population, Puerto Rico would not be subject to the Supreme Court’s decision. However,

according to bureau officials, once sampling could not be used for the U.S., the census

method was also changed for Puerto Rico for consistency and timing purposes and thus

the bureau considers these cost increases to be related.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 56 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

37

Components of Changes

 Framework 7 - Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific Areas (cont’d)

• The requested increase also includes $6.0 million for data collection and support

activities of an expanded nationwide program to assess the accuracy of the new and

enhanced operations that contributed to the census counts.

• However, the bureau acknowledges that it did not have time to formulate a complete

evaluation program when the amended budget request was prepared. The bureau is in the

process of identifying components for each evaluation. Therefore, the $6.0 million figure

is an estimate that could change when the bureau completes designing and costing its

evaluation programs.

• The requested increase also includes $2 million for promotion activities similar to those

activities in the field data collection and support systems (framework 3).
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 57 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

38

Components of Changes

 Framework 8 - Marketing, communications, and partnerships

Requested increase: $88.4 million

• The requested increase relates primarily to expanded advertising and outreach efforts.

• The amended budget request includes $71.9 million intended to increase questionnaire

responses, including advertising targeted at hard-to-enumerate communities.

• As mentioned earlier, the bureau used a 61% assumed response rate in the original and

amended budget requests.

• Consequently, the bureau did not include any cost savings from the additional advertising

in its amended budget request.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 58 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

39

Components of Changes

 Framework 8 - Marketing, communications, and partnerships (cont’d)

• This framework’s increase also includes $5.4 million for support materials, such as

posters and flyers; $3.9 million in payroll and travel costs for 46 additional

community, media, and government partnership specialists; and $7.2 million for

expanded evaluation of this program’s activities.

• The bureau stated that the $7.2 million figure is only an estimate and will remain so

until the bureau identifies the evaluations it wants to perform and prepares study

plans. The purpose of these evaluations is similar to the $28.3 million and $6.0

million budgeted for in frameworks 3 and 7, respectively.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 59 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

40

Components of Changes

Framework 2 - Data content and products

Requested decrease: $(6.3) million

• The bureau’s amended budget request shows no net change for this framework.

However, the $6.3 million decrease shown here is offset by related increases of $6.3

million, shown on slide 20.

• This net decrease includes $5.3 million in reduced headquarters payroll, travel, overhead,

and other costs. The bureau stated that it decided to cut positions originally budgeted for

to pay for other increases in this framework.

• This net decrease also includes $1 million in reduced postage costs resulting from a 1.6

million decrease in expected number of questionnaires to be mailed back due to a

reduction in the expected mail response rate for Puerto Rico.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 60 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

41

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field data collection and support

Requested increase: $98.2 million

• According to the bureau, some of the unrelated costs involving items not included in the

original budget request or revisions of prior estimates are as follows:

• $29 million for rental of common areas not included in the original budget request.

• $23 million for FTS 2000 long distance service costs revised from the estimates in the

original budget request.

• $16 million attributable to an increase in the number of housing units that will have

questionnaires delivered by enumerators as part of the Update/Leave Program.

According to the bureau, the addition of 5 million housing units to the 19 million used

in the original budget request was based on the results of the address listing operation

that ended in January 1999.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 61 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

42

Components of Changes

Framework 3 - Field data collection and support (cont’d)

• $10 million for map supplies and copier paper costs revised from the estimates in the

original budget request.

• $10 million for staff visits to special place facilities in January and February 2000 not

included in the original budget request.

• $4 million for field follow-up of newly identified addresses as part of the New

Construction Program not included in the original budget request.

• $3 million for printing and mailing weekly earnings statements not included in the

original budget request.

• $3 million for costs associated with the unique travel and logistical requirements to

conduct enumeration in Alaska not included in the original budget request.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 62 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

43

Components of Changes

Framework 7 - Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific Areas

Requested increase: $13.3 million

• The requested increase for this framework includes an additional $13.3 million for Island

Area Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) above the $5.3 million in the original

budget request. These MOUs represent agreements between the bureau and the Island

Areas (excluding Puerto Rico) on the responsibilities each party has for conducting the

census of the Islands’ population, as well as the budget for these activities.

• This increase represents revisions of prior cost estimates based on more recent

information for such things as space, telecommunications, shipping, wage rates, and

travel allowances. The increase also includes updated information on the enumeration

workload provided by the Island Area governments and the addition of an office

operation to the work originally planned.
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 63 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

44

Process Used to Develop FY 2000 Budget

Comparison of original and amended budget requests

The bureau derived the $1.7 billion requested increase by calculating the net difference

between the original budget request of $2.8 billion and the amended budget request of $4.5

billion.

Original Amended

budget budget Requested

request request increase

Program activity (dollars in millions)

Program development and management $27.8 $31.0 $3.2

Data content and products 194.6 194.6 0.0

Field data collection and support systems 2,023.2 3,474.5 1,451.3

Address list development 33.9 43.6 9.7

Automated data processing and telecommunications support 341.0 477.4 136.4

Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal 20.5 20.5 0.0

Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and Pacific Areas 37.4 71.4 34.0

Marketing, communications and partnerships 111.1 199.5 88.4

Total requested amount $2,789.5 $4,512.5 $1,723.0
Appendix I

Briefing on the Analysis of the Census 

Bureau’s Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget 

Request

Page 64 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

45

Process Used to Develop FY 2000 Budget

Cost model details

• Consists of 16 interrelated software spreadsheets and numerous formulas and

assumptions.

• Serves as a central collection point for field costs, as well as headquarters and other

costs estimated outside the model.

• Of the $4.5 billion amended budget request, about $1.05 billion (23%) was calculated

outside the model. The amounts calculated are for headquarters activities and contract

costs (e.g., advertising).

• The output from the bureau’s models mathematically agrees with the original and

amended budget estimates.

• These budget estimates are based in part and in varying degrees on the judgment of

bureau management.
Page 65 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Appendix II

Comments From the Department of 

Commerce ApendxIi
Appendix II

Comments From the Department of 

Commerce

Page 66 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Appendix II

Comments From the Department of 

Commerce

Page 67 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Appendix II

Comments From the Department of 

Commerce

Page 68 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Appendix II

Comments From the Department of 

Commerce

Page 69 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request
Page 70 GAO/AIMD/GGD-99-291 FY 2000 Census Amended Budget Request

Appendix III

GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgements ApendxIi

GAO Contact Scott McNulty, (202) 512-9184

Acknowledgements In addition to the contact named above, the following individuals made key 

contributions to this report: Cindy Brown-Barnes, Joan Hawkins, Theresa 

Patrizio, Mike Vu, and Sophia Harrison.

(901793) Letr
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