United States General Accounting Office

GAO Report to Congressional Requesters

September 1997 SELECTIVE SERVICE

Cost and Implications

of Two Alternatives to

the Present System

GAO/NSIAD-97-225

GAO United States

General Accounting Office

Washington, D.C. 20548

National Security and

International Affairs Division

B-277597 

September 10, 1997

The Honorable Peter A. DeFazio

The Honorable Ronald V. Dellums

The Honorable Dana Rohrabacher

The Honorable Gerald B. Solomon

House of Representatives

This report responds to your requests that we review the Selective Service

System’s (SSS) draft registration program and other selected alternatives.

We reviewed two alternatives, suspending active registration and placing

the agency in “deep standby.” A suspended registration alternative would

eliminate the current requirement for men between the ages of 18 and 26

to register for a possible military draft. Under this alternative, most of SSS’

infrastructure would remain intact—including a significant portion of its

staff and all of its local, district appeal, civilian review, and national

boards. The “deep standby” alternative would suspend registration, reduce

a substantial portion of the workforce, and disband the local, district

appeal, civilian review, and national boards. Between 1976 and 1980, SSS

operated in a deep standby posture similar to the one detailed above.

We reviewed the organization and costs of the current program, and

agency estimates of the comparative costs and organizational structure

changes of the two alternatives.1

 Further, assuming implementation of

either of the two alternatives, we obtained estimates on how quickly and

at what cost SSS could be returned to its present posture and a draft

conducted upon mobilization. Ultimately, any decision to change SSS

would require policy judgments that involve other considerations, some of

which cannot be quantified, in addition to cost and time required to

respond to a national emergency.

Background SSS is an independent agency within the executive branch of the federal

government. Its missions are to (1) provide untrained manpower to the

Department of Defense (DOD) for military service in the event of a national

emergency declared by the Congress or the President, (2) administer a

program of alternative service for conscientious objectors in the event of a

draft, and (3) maintain the capability to register and forward for induction

health care personnel if so directed in a future crisis. SSS’ authorizing

1

Initially, we also considered a passive registration system. Such a system would automate

identification/registration, requiring no actions by individuals to register. After consultations with your

staffs, we discarded this alternative because its implementation would raise constitutional issues.

Page 1 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

legislation, the Military Selective Service Act,2 requires that all males

between the ages of 18 and 26 register with SSS under procedures

established by a presidential proclamation and other rules and regulations.

Men are required to register within 30 days of reaching age 18.

SSS operations have fluctuated since the end of the draft in 1973. In 1975,

President Ford terminated registration under the act by revoking several

presidential proclamations.3

 In 1976, SSS state and local offices were

closed, placing the agency in a deep standby. In 1980, following the Soviet

invasion of Afghanistan, President Carter issued a proclamation to

establish the current registration procedures.4

 Under these procedures, SSS

has been registering young men between the ages of 18 and 26, but not

classifying them for a potential draft.

According to SSS officials, the September 30, 1996, version of the

registration database contained about 13 million names of men between

the ages of 18 and 26 and represented about 92 percent of the eligible

universe of males subject to registration. Men are most vulnerable to being

drafted during the calendar year they reach age 20 and become

increasingly less vulnerable each year through age 25. SSS officials estimate

that registration compliance for men considered “draft eligible,” those

aged 20 through 25, is 95 percent. A detailed description of registration

methods appears in appendix I.

Currently, SSS operates as a backup for the recruiting efforts of the

volunteer armed forces in case an emergency compels a reintroduction of

the draft. To carry out its operations, SSS is authorized a staff of 

197 civilians (166 on board as of June 1, 1997); 15 active military personnel

(2 additional positions are funded by the Air Force); 745 part-time

authorized reservists (518 are funded); 56 part-time state directors (one in

each state, territory, the District of Columbia, and New York City); and 

10,635 uncompensated civilian volunteer members of local, review, and

various appeal boards. The state directors would manage state

headquarters and oversee their states’ Area and Alternative Service Offices

and boards for SSS in the event of a mobilization. The local and district

appeal boards would review claims that registrants file for draft

deferments, postponements, and exemptions in a mobilization. Under the

Alternative Service Program, civilian review boards review claims for job

2

50 U.S.C. app. 451-471a.

3

Proclamation No. 4360, 40 Fed. Reg. 14567 (1975).

4

Proclamation No. 4771, 45 Fed. Reg. 45247 (1980).

Page 2 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

reassignment based on conscientious objector beliefs. SSS’ 1997 budget is

$22,930,000, which is divided as follows: $7,810,000 for operational

readiness (includes all boards activities), $7,360,000 for registration

(includes public awareness activities), and $7,760,000 for administration.

(All cost figures provided in this report are in 1997 dollars.)

DOD’s Views on

Registration

Although DOD does not currently foresee a military crisis of a magnitude

that would require immediate reinstatement of the draft, it continues to

support registration for all men between the ages of 18 and 26. The

registration process furnishes a ready pool of individuals that could be

drafted when needed to meet DOD’s emergency manpower requirements.

Until 1994, DOD required the first inductees to be available 13 days after

mobilization notification and 100,000 to be available 30 days after notice.

That year, DOD modified its requirements, prescribing accession of the first

inductees at 6 months plus 13 days (that is, on day 193) and 100,000

inductees at 6 months plus 30 days (that is, on day 210). For a draft of

doctors, nurses, and other medical personnel, the first inductees are

presently slated to report on day 222. SSS officials stated that they can

provide personnel to DOD in the event of an unforeseen emergency

assuming adequate funding and staff. DOD based its time line modifications

on the expectation that active and reserve forces would be sufficient to

respond to perceived threats, thereby mitigating the need for an immediate

infusion of inductees. We did not validate the current DOD requirements for

inductees. However, according to DOD, the current requirements maintain

an adequate margin of safety and provide time for expanding military

training capabilities.

Results in Brief Most of SSS’ potential cost reductions, under either a suspended

registration or a deep standby alternative, would result from reductions in

personnel. SSS estimates that the suspended registration alternative would

reduce authorized and assigned civilian, active military, and part-time

military reserve personnel by about 33 percent (to 123 civilian, 13 active

military, and 504 reserve personnel). These reductions would produce

first-year cost savings of $4.1 million and subsequent annual cost savings

of $5.7 million. SSS estimates that the deep standby alternative would

reduce authorized civilian, active military, and part-time reserve personnel

by about 60 percent (to 77 civilian, 10 active military, and 305 reserve

personnel). The latter alternative reflects a dismissal of thousands of

trained, unpaid local, review, and appeal board volunteers. In addition,

Page 3 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

under the deep standby alternative, the part-time state directors, who

according to SSS officials are paid for an average of 14 days of work per

year, would not be paid. Altogether, these reductions would produce

first-year cost savings of $8.5 million and subsequent annual cost savings

of $11.3 million.

Under both alternatives, mass registrations would be needed if a

mobilization were authorized. SSS’ plans show that the agency could

currently meet DOD’s requirement to provide the first draftees at 193 days.

In contrast, SSS officials believe that the agency would be unable to meet

DOD’s current requirements for untrained manpower under either

alternative. The reason cited is the time needed to reinstate an active

registration system (for either alternative), to reconstitute and train the

boards, and to rebuild their supporting infrastructure (for the deep

standby alternative). SSS officials estimate that in reinstating registration

after suspension, they could meet DOD’s requirement for the first draftees

in about 217 days (24 days more than the current 193-day requirement).

They also estimate that in reinstating a registration system, reconstituting

and training the boards, and rebuilding the supporting infrastructure after

a deep standby posture, they could meet DOD’s requirement for the first

draftees in about 374 days (181 days more than the current 193-day

requirement). Officials told us that these estimates represent their best

assessment of the time required to return to full operations. SSS officials

also estimated that the cost to reinstate a suspended registration could

total about $17.2 million and the cost to revitalize the agency from a deep

standby posture could total about $22.8 million.

Figure 1 shows a comparison of the current level of operations and the

two alternatives—suspending registration and placing the agency in a deep

standby.

Page 4 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

Figure 1: Selective Service System’s Current Operations and Alternatives

- Provide personnel for military service to the Department of Defense in the event of a national

 emergency.

- Operate an Alternative Service Program.

- Maintain the capability to register and forward for induction health care personnel, if so directed.

Mission:

Selective Service System

Personnel

 Civilian (authorized/assigned)

 Military

 Active (authorized/assigned)

 Reserve part-time (authorized /funded)

 State directors part-time

 Local and appeal board members

 Civilian review board members

 National appeal board

Budget (1997)

 Estimated 1st year gross savings

 (less severance pay)

 Estimated net 1st year savings

 Estimated subsequent annual savings

Estimated time to deliver first draftees

Estimated costs to restore operations

Current operations Suspended

registration Deep standby

197/166

(as of 6-1-97) 123 77

15/15+2 paid by

the Air Force 13 10

745/518 504 305

56 56 56 (unpaid)

10,390 10,390 0

240 240 0

550

$22,930,000 $17,230,000 $11,630,000

$5,700,000 $11,300,000

($1,600,000) ($2,800,000)

$4,100,000 $8,500,000

$5,700,000 $11,300,000

Mobilization+193 days Mobilization+217 days Mobilization+374 days

$17,173,000 $22,773,000

Effects of the Options

on Organization and

Costs

The portions of the $22.9 million 1997 budget that could be most affected

by the alternatives total approximately $15.2 million: $7.4 million for the

registration program and $7.8 million for operational readiness.

Registration program activities include handling and entering information

into the database on new registrants, producing and distributing publicity

material about the requirement to register, running subprograms on

Page 5 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

registration compliance and address updates, deactivating registrants who

no longer remain eligible because of age, and verifying the registration of

individuals who may be applying for federal or state employment or other

benefits. Operational readiness activities include organizational planning;

National Guard and reserve training and compensation; tests and

exercises; and various boards’ operations, including training, automatic

data processing support, and other logistical types of support.

Suspending the current registration requirement, with or without

maintaining the boards, would generate cost savings primarily through

reduced personnel levels. However, savings derived from implementing

either option would be partially offset by the cost of downsizing the

agency to accomplish planning and maintenance missions only and by

severance costs associated with reducing personnel levels. SSS officials

estimate one-time severance costs (including severance pay,

unemployment insurance, lump sum leave, and buyouts) of $1.6 million for

the suspended registration alternative and of $2.8 million for the deep

standby alternative.

Also, under current federal law and a number of state laws, certain

benefits may be denied to individuals who fail to register for a draft.5 SSS

officials estimate that the current cost to verify registration to ensure

compliance with such provisions totals about $1.6 million annually.

Therefore, the amount of savings under either alternative would depend

upon whether the agency is required to continue its verification function

(for individuals who were subject to registration prior to suspension) or

whether the applicability of such provisions is suspended.

According to SSS officials, under the suspended registration alternative, 

74 civilian, 4 active duty military, and 241 part-time reserve positions may

be eliminated. SSS officials estimated first-year cost savings of $4.1 million

and subsequent annual cost savings of $5.7 million under this alternative.

SSS would maintain the various boards, their training and operating

programs, and the ability to update automated data processing capabilities

as technology advances. The agency also informed us that it would

continue readiness planning and training plus conduct or participate in

5

For example, these benefits include federal and some state educational assistance and eligibility for

most federal and some state employment. See 50 U.S.C. app. 462(f) and according to SSS similar laws

in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine,

Massachusetts, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee,

and Texas. (New Jersey recently passed similar legislation, which is awaiting the governor’s

signature.)

Page 6 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

mobilization field exercises to test and fine-tune its role in national

security strategies.

SSS officials told us that under the deep standby alternative, 

120 civilian, 7 active duty military, and 440 part-time reserve positions may

be eliminated. Also, 10,395 local and appeal board members and 240

civilian review board members (all unpaid volunteers) would be

dismissed. In addition, the 56 state directors would move to an unpaid

status. SSS officials estimated first-year cost savings of $8.5 million and

subsequent annual cost savings of $11.3 million under this alternative. SSS

would be placed at a level at which it could accomplish planning and

maintenance missions only, including the ability to update automated data

processing capabilities as technology advances.

Time and Costs

Required to

Reinstitute Full

Operations

Under either the suspended registration or the deep standby alternative,

reactivation of a draft registration process would be initiated upon receipt

of authorization. The President can reinstate registration requirements by

issuing a proclamation,6

 but the Military Selective Service Act does not

currently allow induction into the armed forces. The Congress would have

to pass legislation giving the President induction authority.7

 Two major

concerns relating to the implementation of either of the alternatives are

whether SSS could meet DOD’s requirements, given the time needed to make

the agency fully operational, and how much reconstitution would cost.

SSS officials estimate that recovering from suspended registration or a

deep standby and delivering the first draftees to the induction centers

would take more time than DOD’s current 193-day requirement. They

estimate it would take about 24 more days to deliver the first draftees after

recovering from the suspended registration alternative. The officials

expect that the recovery costs would total about $17.2 million. SSS officials

also estimate that revitalizing the agency from a deep standby posture and

delivering the first draftees would take about 181 more days than DOD’s

current requirement and would cost about $22.8 million. These costs cover

rehiring personnel; obtaining data processing capability; and acquiring

equipment, supplies, and other resources needed to conduct a mass

registration and return the agency to its present operating capability.

These costs also cover acquisition of necessary additional office and data

processing space.

6

50 U.S.C. app. 453(a).

7

50 U.S.C. app. 467(c).

Page 7 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

SSS officials informed us that if the agency reinstated registration after

having operated under either the suspended registration or deep standby

option, it would need to conduct a time-limited registration of the 19- and

20-year-old groups and then conduct a continuous registration of all males

in the remaining age groups (those between the ages of 21 and 26). The

agency’s experience in conducting a 2-week registration of the 19- and

20-year-old age groups was very successful during the peacetime

reinstatement of registration in 1980. However, the agency could not

project with a high degree of confidence that it would similarly succeed

when conducting a time-limited registration during wartime or a national

crisis. SSS officials stated that unless the mass registration program can

achieve high levels of compliance (at least 90 percent of the targeted

population), the fairness and equity of the ensuing draft could be called

into question. Additionally, officials said the “lottery,” which would be

used to determine the order of call in a draft, could be delayed until high

compliance is achieved to preclude men with birthdates that draw low

numbers from willfully refusing to register.

In 1980, SSS demonstrated that it could achieve a high percentage of

compliance during a time-limited registration. At that time, SSS conducted

two time-limited registrations, after recovering from a deep standby

posture. During these registrations, 87 percent of the young men born in

1960 and 1961 (19- and 20-year-olds) registered during a 2-week period in

July 1980, and 77 percent of the young men born in 1962 (19-year olds)

registered during a 1-week registration period in January 1981.8 SSS

officials indicated that these mass registrations occurred after 6 months of

publicity and public debate and with no threat of an impending draft. In

the view of SSS officials, a return to registration from either alternative

described in this report is likely to be in connection with a war or crisis,

and they believe early compliance rates cannot be predicted in a crisis

environment. SSS officials stated that the agency’s main problem in gearing

up in 1980 was in reinstating and activating the local, district appeal, and

national boards in preparation for a possible draft. They said the process

would be time-consuming because more than 10,000 volunteers forming

2,000 boards would need to be identified, appointed, and trained. SSS

officials also stressed that to help ensure fairness, the composition of the

boards should racially and ethnically reflect the demographics of the

young men in the communities they would serve. Given the agency’s

experience in recovering from a deep standby in 1980, SSS officials added

extra time to their current estimates of the time required to make the

8

Alternatives to Current Draft Registration Program Needed Unless Level of Compliance Improves

(GAO/FPCD-82-20, Apr. 19, 1982).

Page 8 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

agency fully operational. SSS officials believed that the variables that could

affect the timeliness, fairness, and equity of a future draft made it prudent

to build additional time into their estimates to conduct a draft, should

registration be suspended or the agency placed in deep standby.

Agency Comments SSS reviewed a draft of this report and stated that the report did an

excellent job of analyzing the dollar requirements of peacetime

registration and estimating the structure and funding changes that may

result if national security policy was changed to abandon the current

registration requirement. SSS also commented that our report did not

address some aspects of continuing peacetime registration that it

characterized as equally important, but less tangible. Those aspects

included viewing peacetime registration as (1) low-cost insurance against

unforeseen threats, (2) a sign to potential adversaries of U.S. resolve, and

(3) a link between the all volunteer military force and society at large. We

did not review these implications of continuing peacetime registration as

part of our audit scope and clarified the report to reflect this fact. SSS also

provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate. SSS

comments are presented in appendix II.

Scope and

Methodology

In performing our review, we interviewed and obtained documents from

SSS officials in Financial Management; Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation;

Operations; Public and Congressional Affairs; and Information

Management. We identified SSS’ current mission and operating parameters,

focusing on the draft registration system. We made preliminary inquiries

regarding four alternatives to SSS’ present operations, that is, two passive

registration alternatives, a suspended active registration alternative, and a

deep standby alternative. Since passive registration alternatives would

raise constitutional issues and possibly encourage lawsuits regarding

fairness and equity of such systems during mobilization, we did not

address these alternatives.

For the two remaining alternatives, we obtained from SSS estimates of

costs that could be saved upon implementation of either alternative. Since

the cost savings would surface through reductions in personnel, we

obtained from SSS the effect of implementing either alternative on its

staffing levels. In addition, we obtained from SSS cost estimates associated

with revitalizing registration or with moving the agency from a deep

standby posture to full operational status. SSS also gave us time estimates

for the revitalization of both the registration process and the board

Page 9 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
B-277597 

structure and its assessment of the alternatives’ effects on meeting DOD’s

manpower and mobilization time frame requirements. We did not validate

the cost and time estimates but made judgments on their reasonableness

by discussing the methods and assumptions SSS used to develop the

estimates and by matching baseline information to agency backup

documents. We did not review the policy implications of changing or

continuing the peacetime registration program.

We conducted our review between December 1996 and July 1997 in

accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

We are sending copies of this report to the Chairmen and Ranking

Minority Members of the House Committee on Government Reform and

Oversight, Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, House and Senate

Committees on Appropriations, House Committee on National Security,

Senate Committee on Armed Services, and House and Senate Committees

on the Budget; and the Director of the Selective Service System; the

Secretary of Defense; and the Director, Office of Management and Budget.

We will also make copies of the report available to others, on request.

Please contact me on (202) 512-5140 if you have any questions concerning

this report. Major contributors to this report are listed in appendix III.

Mark E. Gebicke

Director, Military Operations

 and Capabilities Issues

Page 10 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Page 11 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Contents

Letter 1

Appendix I 

Current Registration

Methods

14

Appendix II 

Comments From

Selective Service

System

16

Appendix III 

Major Contributors to

This Report

22

Figure Figure 1: Selective Service System’s Current Operations and

Alternatives

5

Abbreviations

DOD Department of Defense

SSS Selective Service System

Page 12 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Page 13 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix I 

Current Registration Methods

Men between the ages of 18 and 26 can register with SSS in six ways: (1) fill

out an SSS form at U.S. Postal Service facilities throughout the nation and

at U.S. embassies or consulates overseas; (2) complete and return a

registration reminder mail-back postcard or a compliance postcard

required as a result of having been identified by SSS from various

databases; (3) join the military or Job Corps; (4) complete a registration

form provided by volunteer registrars; (5) register when applying for

student financial assistance; and (6) initiate registration by computer using

the Internet.

Men may register at any one of the more than 34,000 post offices in the

United States and U.S. territories by completing SSS Form 1. During fiscal

year 1996, about 386,000 individuals used this procedure to register.

Registrants should receive a registration acknowledgement and a Selective

Service number within 90 days. If the registrant does not receive

acknowledgement within this time frame, he is required to contact SSS.

SSS sends reminder postcards to young men about to turn 18, based on

driver licenses lists received from states’ departments of motor vehicles

and similar lists from other sources. In fiscal year 1996, over 2 million

young men were sent reminder mail-back registration postcards, and

792,435 men returned the registration portion. SSS also does list matching

to identify eligible males who have not registered as required, using data

from each state’s departments of motor vehicles, Department of Defense

high school recruiting lists, the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization

Service’s files of individuals seeking citizenship or legal residency status,

voter registration files, and the Department of Education. Once identified

as possible nonregistrants, the individuals are sent a reminder, including a

compliance postcard. About 343,300 men registered after receiving at least

one communication requiring compliance. The names of those who did not

register or respond are referred to the Department of Justice for possible

prosecution.

The third registration method is the automatic registration of active duty

and reserve military personnel as well as males in the Job Corps who have

not reached age 26 at the time of their enlistment. Approximately 55,400

military personnel and about 16,700 Job Corps members were

automatically registered through this method in fiscal year 1996. Beginning

in fiscal year 1998, the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service plans

to include on its forms language for automatic registration of all eligible

male aliens applying for citizenship or adjustment of status.

Page 14 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix I 

Current Registration Methods

SSS also has more than 10,000 volunteer registrars in public and private

schools who advise eligible males of their responsibility to register. The

volunteers provide registration forms and collect and forward the

completed forms to SSS. Additionally, SSS has about 4,300 volunteer

registrars in the National Association of Farmworkers program and in

various state agencies and state military departments. Approximately

60,500 men were registered by volunteer registrars during fiscal year 1996.

The electronic registration procedure can be used by students applying for

student financial assistance and by individuals who initiate registration

through the Internet. In 1982, the Congress amended the Military Selective

Service Act1

 to provide that any student who is required to register with

SSS but has failed to do so is ineligible for student assistance under title IV

of the Higher Education Act of 1965. Since then, the Department of

Education and SSS have implemented a telecommunications datalink that

is used for electronic registration and registration verification. A student is

automatically registered by marking the box “register me” on the

Application for Federal Student Aid. During fiscal year 1996, about 177,600

men registered using this method.

Beginning in March 1997, men who have access to the Internet can initiate

the registration process by filling in name, date of birth, address, and

social security number on an on-line registration form. This information is

downloaded to SSS, which sends the registrant a card requesting that the

information be verified. When the verification card is returned and SSS

sends the registration acknowledgement to the registrant, registration is

completed. All new registrants receive an acknowledgement card from SSS.

The card serves as proof of registration and gives each registrant a unique

Selective Service number.

1

See 50 U.S.C. app. 462(f).

Page 15 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 16 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 17 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 18 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 19 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 20 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix II 

Comments From Selective Service System

Page 21 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
Appendix III 

Major Contributors to This Report

National Security and

International Affairs

Division, Washington,

D.C.

Sharon A. Cekala

Carol R. Schuster

William E. Beusse

Robert J. Lane

George M. Delgado

MaeWanda Michael-Jackson

Office of the General

Counsel, Washington,

D.C.

Mark C. Speight

(703186) Page 22 GAO/NSIAD-97-225 Selective Service
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