EMTS RIN Data & EPA RIN Rollover Assumptions - Memo to the Docket

This document provides detailed accounting of the methods used by EPA to estimate the number of rollover RINs that will be available over the time period analyzed in our 

analysis (i.e., the 2012/13 corn marketing year).

The second tab in this document, labeled "EMTS Data & Projections", provides this detail. Explanations for the content of cells are provided as comments in that tab. To read 

these comments, hover over the red tabs in the upper right corner of a labeled cell.

All data provided in this spreadsheet are either A) taken directly from the EPA Moderated Transaction System (EMTS) or B) derived from data taken from EMTS.

EMTS is the system that EPA uses to track generation, transaction, and retirement of RINs. See http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/epamts.htm for more information

Row 41 of the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab provides our projections for D6 RIN rollover into the 2012/13 crop year. D6 is the D-code for RINs that can be used to meet the total 

renewable fuel requirement, but none of the other nested requirements (e.g., biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel). This is the D-code assigned to volumes of corn starch 

ethanol.

The estimates provided in Row 41 of the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab span the spectrum of possible results. Some generate projections that are higher than we would expect, 

while others generate projections that are lower than we would expect. For more details on this, see the comments in Row 7 of that same tab.

For our stochastic analysis, EPA assumed that 2 billion rollover D6 RINs would be available over the 2012/13 crop year period. As the projections in the "EMTS Data & 

Projections" tab illustrate, this is significantly lower than what EPA projects for actual RIN carryover during this period. Acknowledging that our assumption about RIN rollover could 

significantly affect our modeling results, EPA chose to make our rollover assumption more conservative (i.e., lower). 

For illustrative purposes, we also provide historical data for D6 RINs in the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab. This data is presented in Rows 47-100 of that tab.
EMTS RIN Data & EPA RIN Rollover Assumptions - Memo to the Docket

D6 RIN Generation Projections for 2012 (through October 2012)

in number of RINs

2012 Annual Average October 2012-Based

January 1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004

February 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141

March 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963

April 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113

May 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011

June 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773

July 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253

August 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884

September 985,620,542 985,620,542

October 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204

November (Projected) 1,089,540,089 1,055,587,204

December (Projected) 1,089,540,089 1,055,587,204

Annual Total (Projected) 13,074,481,066 13,006,575,296

Calculation of RIN Rollover into 2012/13 Crop Year

in number of RINs

Calculation of RIN Rollover into Sept-Dec 2012

Total 2011 D6 RINs Available 3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800

2012 Maximum RIN Rollover for All D-Codes 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000

Maximum Available Rollover of D4 & D5 RINs 306,230,291 306,230,291

Available Rollover of 2012 D6 RINs 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709

Sept-Dec 2012 Rollover 911,256,570 911,256,570

Calculation of RIN Rolloverover into Jan-Aug 2013

Difference Between Projected 2012 Volume & 2012 RVO (125,518,934) (193,424,704)

Available Rollover of 2012 D6 RINs 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709

Total Projected 2012 D6 RIN Rollover into 2013 2,608,250,775 2,540,345,005

Jan-Aug 2013 Rollover 1,738,833,850 1,693,563,337

2012/13 Crop Year Rollover 2,650,090,419 2,604,819,906

Note: Total Renewable fuel mandate is 15.2 BG in 2012 and 16.55 BG in 2013.

Current Status of 2011 & 2012 D6 RINs in EMTS

in number of RINs

2011 D6 RINS 2012 D6 RINS

Total Generated 13,587,382,148 10,894,092,188

Assigned 31,461,557 706,452,816

Retired 6,807,512 6,711,774

Locked 1,254,606 1,676,260

Available 23,399,439 698,064,782

Separated 13,555,920,580 10,187,639,372

Retired 10,091,977,610 38,025,115

Locked 3,931,170 11,704,779
Available 3,460,011,800 10,137,909,478

Historical D6 RIN Generation

in number of RINs Time Period Volume

July 1,114,817,981

August 1,114,891,296

September 1,109,784,272

October 1,110,554,395

November 1,137,766,194

December 1,197,037,627

January 1,157,761,786

February 1,051,590,627

March 1,224,583,369

April 1,067,791,611

May 1,139,891,603

June 1,164,713,461

July 1,125,725,120

August 1,159,130,390

September 1,078,092,281

October 1,098,469,546

November 1,138,975,500

December 1,180,656,854

January 1,175,216,004

February 1,079,827,141

March 1,136,714,963

April 1,094,884,113

May 1,131,607,011

June 1,084,529,773

July 1,055,575,253

August 1,095,838,884

September 985,620,542

October 1,051,446,875

November TBD

December TBD

2010 Annual Total 6,784,851,765

2011 Annual Total 13,587,382,148

2012 Annual Total 10,891,260,559

2010

2011

2012
 the Docket

2011-Based Low Production (5% 

Monthly Decline)

Low Production (10% 

Monthly Decline)

 1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004

 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141

 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963

 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113

 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011

 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773

 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253

 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884

 985,620,542 985,620,542 985,620,542

 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204

 1,138,975,500 1,002,807,844 950,028,484

 1,180,656,854 952,667,452 855,025,635

 13,215,033,242 12,850,876,183 12,700,455,007

 3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800

 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000

 306,230,291 306,230,291 306,230,291

 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709

 911,256,570 911,256,570 911,256,570

 15,033,242 (349,123,817) (499,544,993)

 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709

 2,748,802,951 2,384,645,892 2,234,224,716

 1,832,535,301 1,589,763,928 1,489,483,144

 2,743,791,870 2,501,020,498 2,400,739,714
Monthly Change %Change

N/A N/A

 73,315 0.0%

 (5,107,024) -0.5%

 770,123 0.1%

 27,211,799 2.5%

 59,271,433 5.2%

 (39,275,841) -3.3%

 (106,171,159) -9.2%

 172,992,742 16.5%

 (156,791,758) -12.8%

 72,099,992 6.8%

 24,821,858 2.2%

 (38,988,341) -3.3%

 33,405,270 3.0%

 (81,038,109) -7.0%

 20,377,265 1.9%

 40,505,954 3.7%

 41,681,354 3.7%

 (5,440,850) -0.5%

 (95,388,863) -8.1%

 56,887,822 5.3%

 (41,830,850) -3.7%

 36,722,898 3.4%

 (47,077,238) -4.2%

 (28,954,520) -2.7%

 40,263,631 3.8%

 (110,218,342) -10.1%

 65,826,333 6.7%

TBD TBD

TBD TBD