# EMTS RIN Data & EPA RIN Rollover Assumptions - Memo to the Docket

This document provides detailed accounting of the methods used by EPA to estimate the number of rollover RINs that will be available over the time period analyzed in our analysis (i.e., the 2012/13 corn marketing year).

The second tab in this document, labeled "EMTS Data & Projections", provides this detail. Explanations for the content of cells are provided as comments in that tab. To read these comments, hover over the red tabs in the upper right corner of a labeled cell.

All data provided in this spreadsheet are either A) taken directly from the EPA Moderated Transaction System (EMTS) or B) derived from data taken from EMTS.

EMTS is the system that EPA uses to track generation, transaction, and retirement of RINs. See http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/epamts.htm for more information

Row 41 of the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab provides our projections for D6 RIN rollover into the 2012/13 crop year. D6 is the D-code for RINs that can be used to meet the total renewable fuel requirement, but none of the other nested requirements (e.g., biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel). This is the D-code assigned to volumes of corn starch
ethanol.

The estimates provided in Row 41 of the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab span the spectrum of possible results. Some generate projections that are higher than we would expect, while others generate projections that are lower than we would expect. For more details on this, see the comments in Row 7 of that same tab.

For our stochastic analysis, EPA assumed that 2 billion rollover D6 RINs would be available over the 2012/13 crop year period. As the projections in the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab illustrate, this is significantly lower than what EPA projects for actual RIN carryover during this period. Acknowledging that our assumption about RIN rollover could significantly affect our modeling results, EPA chose to make our rollover assumption more conservative (i.e., lower).

For illustrative purposes, we also provide historical data for D6 RINs in the "EMTS Data & Projections" tab. This data is presented in Rows 47-100 of that tab.

# EMTS RIN Data & EPA RIN Rollover Assumptions - Memo to the Docket

D6 RIN Generation Projections for 2012 (through October 2012)

in number of RINs

**2012 A nnual A**  **verage October 2012-Based** 

January 1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004 February 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141
March 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963 April 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113 May 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011
June 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773 July 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253 August 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884 September 985,620,542 985,620,542
October 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204 November (Projected) 1,089,540,089 1,055,587,204 December (Projected) 1,089,540,089 1,055,587,204 **Annual Total (Projected) 13,074,481,066**  **13,006,575,296**



# Calculation of RIN Rollover into 2012/13 Crop Year

in number of RINs

**Calculation of RIN Rollover into Sept-Dec 2012**
Total 2011 D6 RINs Available 3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800
2012 Maximum RIN Rollover for All D-Codes 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000
Maximum Available Rollover of D4 & D5 RINs 306,230,291 306,230,291
Available Rollover of 2012 D6 RINs 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 **Sept-Dec 2012 Rollover 911,256,570**  **911,256,570**

**Calculation of RIN Rolloverover into Jan-Aug 2013** Difference Between Projected 2012 Volume & 2012 RVO (125,518,934) (193,424,704)
Available Rollover of 2012 D6 RINs 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 Total Projected 2012 D6 RIN Rollover into 2013 2,608,250,775 2,540,345,005
**Jan-A ug 2013 Rollover**  **1,738,833,850 1,693,563,337** 



## 2012/13 Crop Year Rollover **2,650,090,419 2,604,819,906** 

Note: Total Renewable fuel mandate is 15.2 BG in 2012 and 16.55 BG in 2013.



## Current Status of 2011 & 2012 D6 RINs in EMTS

in number of RINs

**2011 D6 RINS 2012 D6 RINS** 
**Total Generated** 13,587,382,148 10,894,092,188

Assigned 31,461,557 706,452,816
Retired 6,807,512 6,711,774
Locked 1,254,606 1,676,260
Available 23,399,439 698,064,782

Separated 13,555,920,580 10,187,639,372
Retired 10,091,977,610 38,025,115
Locked 3,931,170 11,704,779Available 3,460,011,800 10,137,909,478



## Historical D6 RIN Generation

in number of RINs **Time Period Volume** 

July 1,114,817,981 August 1,114,891,296 September 1,109,784,272
October 1,110,554,395
November 1,137,766,194
December 1,197,037,627 January 1,157,761,786 February 1,051,590,627
March 1,224,583,369 April 1,067,791,611 May 1,139,891,603
June 1,164,713,461 July 1,125,725,120 August 1,159,130,390 September 1,078,092,281
October 1,098,469,546
November 1,138,975,500
December 1,180,656,854 January 1,175,216,004 February 1,079,827,141
March 1,136,714,963 April 1,094,884,113 May 1,131,607,011
June 1,084,529,773 July 1,055,575,253 August 1,095,838,884 September 985,620,542
October 1,051,446,875
November TBD
December TBD

**2010** Annual Total 6,784,851,765
**2011** Annual Total 13,587,382,148
**2012** Annual Total 10,891,260,559 **2010**

**2011**

**2012**

# EMTS RIN Data & EPA RIN Rollover Assumptions - Memo to the Docket

**2011-Based Low Production (5%**  **Monthly Decline)**  **Low Production (10%**

**Monthly Decline)**  1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004 1,175,216,004 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141 1,079,827,141 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963 1,136,714,963 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113 1,094,884,113 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011 1,131,607,011 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773 1,084,529,773 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253 1,055,575,253 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884 1,095,838,884 985,620,542 985,620,542 985,620,542 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204 1,055,587,204 1,138,975,500 1,002,807,844 950,028,484 1,180,656,854 952,667,452 855,025,635 **13,215,033,242 12,850,876,183**  **12,700,455,007**

3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800 3,460,011,800 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000 3,040,000,000 306,230,291 306,230,291 306,230,291 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 **911,256,570 911,256,570**  **911,256,570**

15,033,242 (349,123,817) (499,544,993) 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 2,733,769,709 2,748,802,951 2,384,645,892 2,234,224,716 **1,832,535,301 1,589,763,928**  **1,489,483,144**



## 2,743,791,870 **2,501,020,498 2,400,739,714** **Monthly Change**  **%Change**

N/A N/A 73,315 0.0% (5,107,024) -0.5% 770,123 0.1% 27,211,799 2.5% 59,271,433 5.2% (39,275,841) -3.3% (106,171,159) -9.2% 172,992,742 16.5% (156,791,758) -12.8% 72,099,992 6.8% 24,821,858 2.2% (38,988,341) -3.3% 33,405,270 3.0% (81,038,109) -7.0% 20,377,265 1.9% 40,505,954 3.7% 41,681,354 3.7% (5,440,850) -0.5% (95,388,863) -8.1% 56,887,822 5.3% (41,830,850) -3.7% 36,722,898 3.4% (47,077,238) -4.2% (28,954,520) -2.7% 40,263,631 3.8% (110,218,342) -10.1% 65,826,333 6.7%

TBD TBD

TBD TBD