June 11, 2012

Sponsor: University of Illinois Office of Capital Programs and Real Estate Services

Champaign, Illinois

Bruce K. Walden, Director

Congressional Code: IL-15

Dun & Bradstreet Number: 04-154-4081

Tax Identification Number (EIN): 37-6000511

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS WILLARD AIRPORT

CHAMPAIGN/URBANA, ILLINOIS

Application Under the Small Community Air Service Development Program

Docket DOT-OST-2012-0069

Application for Federal Support for New Air Service via Revenue Guarantees, 

Advertising and Marketing, and Start-Up Cost Offsets

Targeted towards Improved Eastbound Air Service
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introductory Letter of Support 3

Summary Information – Appendix C 4

Introduction 7

The Central Illinois Air Service Market 8

Current and Historical Service 9

Overview of Passenger Leakage 12

Air Service Development Efforts 15

Air Service Needs and Deficiencies 16

Regional Fare Environment 17

Passenger Leakage Detail 18

Strategic Plan for New Air Service 20

Targeted Route: Champaign/Urbana – Washington Dulles 21

Potential Eastbound Passenger Traffic 22

Implementation Timeline 26

Public/Private Partnership 27

Legal Sponsor 28

Conclusion 29

Section Page Number
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 3

INTRODUCTORY LETTER OF SUPPORT
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 4

SUMMARY INFORMATION – APPENDIX C

Small Community Air Service Development Program

Docket DOT-OST-2012-0069

A. Applicant Information

 Not a Consortium Community now receives EAS subsidy

 Interstate Consortium Intrastate Consortium

 Community previously received a Small Community Grant

 If previous recipient, Date of Grant: ________________________________

Expiration date of Grant: _______________________

Federal Funds Requested: ______________________

Carrier(s) Service Obtained: ____________________

Destination(s) Served: __________________________

B. Public/Private Partnership

Public:

1. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

2. City of Champaign

3. City of Urbana

Private:

1. Champaign County Economic Development Corporation

2. Champaign County Alliance

3. University of Illinois Chancellor’s Office Community Projects Fund
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 5

C. Project Proposal

 Marketing Upgrade Aircraft New Route

 Travel Bank Service Restoration Subsidy

 Surface Transportation Regional Service Revenue Guarantee

 Launch New Carrier Start-Up Cost Offset First Service

 Study Secure Additional Service Other (Specify)

D. Existing Landing Aids at Airport

 Full ILS Outer/Middle Marker Published Instrument Approach

 Localizer Other: VOR, GPS, NDB, PAPI, VASI

E. Project Cost

1. Federal amount requested: $ 600,000

2. State cash financial contribution: $ 0

Local cash financial contribution:

3a. Airport cash funds: $ 80,000

3b. Non-Airport cash funds: $ 0

3. Total local cash funds: $ 80,000

4. TOTAL CASH FUNDING: $ 680,000

In-Kind Contribution:

a. Airport In-Kind contribution: $ 345,007

b. Other In-Kind contribution: $ Various

5. TOTAL IN-KIND CONTRIBUTION: $ 344,997 + Media Match

6. TOTAL PROJECT COST: $ 1,025,007 + In-Kind
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 6

F. In-Kind Contributions

For funds in lines 7a (airport in-kind contribution) and 7b (other in-kind contribution), 

please describe the source(s) of fund(s) for each.

Airport In-Kind: 

Landing Fee Waiver for 12 Months: $34,125

Jetbridge Fee Waiver for 12 Months: $19,344

Common Use Rent Waiver for 12 Months: $212,736

Dedicated Space Rental Waiver for 12 Months: $78,792

Total Airport In-Kind Contribution: $344,997

Community In-Kind:

Matching funding for advertising and marketing of service.

G. Is Application Subject to Review by State Under Executive Order 12372 Process?

 This application was made available to the state under the Executive Order 12372 Process 

for review on ______.

 Program is subject to E.O 12372, but has not been selected by the state for review.

 Program is not covered by E.O 12372.

H. Is Applicant Delinquent on any Federal Debt?

 No
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 7

INTRODUCTION

In the last month the University of Illinois Willard Airport completed a new passenger retention 

and leakage analysis, investing significant time and money in an effort to better understand its 

own market and how its local catchment area could best be served by the Airport. The analysis 

has uncovered some startling facts about air service in central Illinois. While it has long been 

assumed many Champaign/Urbana passengers flew out of Bloomington/Normal and 

Indianapolis because of low fares, it has been determined that almost half of airline passengers 

traveling to and from Champaign/Urbana really use 

Chicago area airports. Only 12% of passengers use 

Bloomington/Normal, contrary to popular regional 

beliefs.

Perhaps most telling is the fact that just 16% of 

Champaign/Urbana passengers use their own airport –

Willard Airport. The biggest reason for the poor passenger retention: high fares. Champaign’s 

Willard Airport has the highest average fare of all commercially served airports in Illinois and 

Indiana, at $294 each way. Champaign/Urbana’s average fare is 78% above the regional 

average, meaning Willard Airport passengers pay a premium averaging $129 one way for the 

privilege of using the hometown airport.

Fares have rapidly increased in the Champaign/Urbana market – up 22% in the last three years –

as airlines have cut Willard Airport capacity. Since the summer of 2009 Willard has lost 44% of its 

daily departures and 34% of its daily departing seats. It’s harder to find seats to and from Willard, 

especially at peak travel times, while it’s also much more expensive to fly from Willard than from 

other airports in Illinois. Moreover, Willard Airport is served now by just one carrier – American 

Eagle.

The Airport, and the University, must address these air service deficiencies. The Airport is seeking 

a Small Community Air Service Development Grant in support of new eastbound hub access. 

The target of new service is the United hub at Washington Dulles, as Washington has available 

capacity for additional flights, and it ranks as Champaign/Urbana’s sixth largest origin and 

destination passenger market, with an average of 51 local passengers per day each way. The 

Airport has developed a coalition of support and matching funding to make the project a 

reality.

“...just 16% of 

Champaign/Urbana passengers 

use their own airport... the 

biggest reason... high fares.”
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 8

THE CHAMPAIGN/URBANA AIR SERVICE MARKET

Current and Historical Air Service

While the University of Illinois Willard Airport has seen its capacity cut by more than a third in the 

last three years, it still plays a vital role in connecting east central Illinois, and the State’s flagship 

University, to the rest of the world. The Airport’s primary catchment area covers many of the 

communities within an hour’s drive (see map 1). The Airport is most likely to capture passengers 

who live within a half 

hour’s drive, seen in the 

darkest shade of blue on 

map 1. This area is home 

to 184,773 people as of 

the 2010 US Census. The 

Airport’s extended 

catchment area reaches 

out to a 45-minute drive 

radius, which is home to 

245,684 people, and a 60-

minute drive radius, which 

is home to 390,541 

people. Willard Airport 

does not typically pull 

passengers from outside 

the 60-minute drive radius, 

as there are other airports 

closer to those residents, including Chicago’s airports, Bloomington/Normal, Peoria, Decatur, 

Springfield, and Indianapolis. Nonetheless, in the past when Willard Airport had unique service 

not offered from other central Illinois airports, it drew from a larger area. It is anticipated that this 

would be the case if Willard had the only East Coast non-stop service in the region.

Champaign/Urbana is down to a single carrier. American Eagle is the only scheduled airline 

providing service, with six weekday non-stops to Chicago O’Hare and one daily non-stop to 

Dallas/Ft. Worth (see figure 1 on next page). In July of 2010, Willard Airport also had two daily 

Delta Air Lines non-stops to Detroit, but that service was lost as Delta rationalized its regional 

network and ended service to many smaller communities throughout the Midwest. The 

MAP 1: University of Illinois Willard Airport Catchment Area

Source: Sixel Consulting Group, 2010 US Census
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 9

Champaign/Urbana – Detroit 

market had been continually 

served by Northwest for 

almost two decades, but it 

did not fit in with Delta’s plans 

for the Detroit hub.

The result of the loss of Delta 

service is available seat 

capacity which is down 

almost 16% from July of 2010 

to July of 2012 (see figure 1). 

The Airport has met with 

American and 

communicated frequently 

with that airline about its 

capacity needs, resulting in 

American capacity that is up 

14% since July of 2010 – but 

not enough to overcome the 

loss of all service from Delta. 

Moreover, with American 

being the sole carrier in the 

market they have pricing power that has caused the average fare in the market to increase by 

almost 20% since Delta left.

The summer of 2009 was the last high point for Willard Airport airline capacity. In July of 2009, 

Willard had an average of 9.5 departing flights per day and an average of 425 daily departing 

airline seats (see figure 2 on next page). Since that time, airlines serving the Airport have cut 

flights by an average of 4.2 departures per day, or 44%. Airlines have reduced their available 

departing seats to just 281 per day as of February 2012, a loss of 144 departing seats per day 

since summer of 2009, or 34% of total capacity.

FIGURE 1: Service at the University of Illinois Willard Airport

July 2010 vs. July 2012; Source: OAG Schedule Data, May 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 10

The Airport has worked to reverse the decline in available seats and the loss of flight frequency. 

It has met in person with almost a dozen airlines in the last three years. It has not had success in 

drawing additional capacity for two reasons: it did not have an adequate handle on its true 

market, including passengers that leak to other airports; and it does not have the financial 

support to offer large incentive packages on its own. While the airport in Bloomington/Normal 

has a property tax to help it keep costs artificially low, Willard Airport has only the support of users 

fees and a cash-strapped University.

As a result of capacity cuts, Willard Airport has seen its passengers decline rapidly through the 

latter half of the last decade. While passengers have been in decline, fares have been rising 

rapidly to some of the highest levels in the Midwest, and in the country. Since 2005, the average 

one way fare from Willard Airport has gone up by $86 each way, or $172 roundtrip – an increase 

of 41% (see figure 3 on next page).

FIGURE 2: Flights, Seats and Passengers per Day Each Way, University of Illinois Willard Airport

Source: US DOT T100; July 2009 – February 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 11

Rising fares have suppressed passengers, and forced passengers to use other airports. Since 

peaking in 2005, at an average of almost 347 passengers per day each way, Willard Airport 

passengers have dropped by 38% (see figure 3). In the last seven years, Willard Airport has lost 

an average of 131 passengers per day each way. In fact, passengers have continued to 

decline, year after year, for each of the last seven years. Willard Airport hasn’t seen so few 

passengers in almost two decades.

It’s not that the Champaign/Urbana region isn’t generating as many airline passengers as it used 

to. Quite the opposite is true. Willard Airport is retaining fewer passengers than it has in the last 

decade. The Airport’s May 2012 leakage and retention study shows the Airport retains just 16.3% 

of the passengers generated in its immediate catchment area, or an average of 215 passengers 

per day each way (see figure 4 on next page). The entire Willard Airport catchment area 

generates an average of 1,318 passengers per day each way, with 83.7% using airports other 

than their local airport.

FIGURE 3: O&D Passengers and Average Fares at the University of Illinois Willard Airport

Source: US DOT Table OD1A; Calendar Year 2002 – Calendar Year 2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 12

It was expected that 

Champaign/Urbana’s 

leaking passengers most 

often used 

Bloomington/Normal’s airport 

or Indianapolis’ airport. The 

data shows, however, that 

the largest portion of 

Champaign/Urbana 

passengers drive two and a 

half hours to Chicago O’Hare 

to access the national air 

transportation system. 

Altogether, 32% of 

Champaign/Urbana 

passengers, or an average of 

422 passengers per day each 

way, use O’Hare (see figure 

4). Another 14% use Chicago 

Midway – meaning 44% of all 

Champaign/Urbana travelers 

fly in and out of Chicago, 

despite it being farther away than other alternate airports in the region.

The data also shows that almost as many Champaign/Urbana passengers drive three hours to St. 

Louis to catch their flights as those who drive an hour to Bloomington/Normal. While an average 

of 188 passengers per day each way generated in the Willard Airport catchment area fly out of 

Bloomington/Normal, almost 156 passengers per day each way drive to St. Louis (see figure 4). 

Just 59 passengers per day each way, on average, use Indianapolis, despite the fact it’s an hour 

closer to Champaign/Urbana than St. Louis.

The numbers are a genuine reflection of why people leak to other airports. Simply put, fares are 

lower in St. Louis than they are in Indianapolis, so people will drive the extra hour. The same goes 

for fares at Chicago Midway versus Bloomington/Normal. Champaign/Urbana travelers, in most 

cases, leak based on fare. The exception is Chicago O’Hare, where Champaign/Urbana 

FIGURE 4: CMI Catchment Area Passengers by O&D Airport;

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study, CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 13

passengers actually pay more, 

on average, than they do at 

Willard Airport. Passengers 

appear to leak to O’Hare for the 

wide breadth of non-stop flights, 

and the wide array of non-stop 

international destinations.

The passenger leakage in the 

Willard Airport catchment area 

happens in all origin and 

destination markets. Willard 

retains less than 35% of 

passengers in each of its top 25 

passenger markets (see figure 

5). In 12 of Willard’s top 25 true 

markets it retains less than 15% of 

passengers, with especially poor 

retention to leisure destinations 

such as Orlando, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and South Florida. To destinations on the East Coast, 

Willard Airport retains less than 20% of its local catchment area passengers, with more than 

28,000 annual New York/Newark passengers flying from other airports and almost 26,000 

Washington/Baltimore passengers leaking away from Willard.

Even when leaking passengers from the Willard Airport catchment area are taken into account, 

the overall average fare in the catchment is $247 each way as of calendar year 2011 (see figure 

6 on next page). That’s $82 each way higher than the Illinois-Indiana average fare of $165 one 

way – a premium of 50% over the region’s average fare, even when Champaign/Urbana 

passengers fly from airports other than Willard. The catchment suffers from high average fares to 

virtually all destinations, outside of those served by low cost carriers in central Illinois such as 

Orlando. 

FIGURE 5: Top 25 True O&D Passenger Markets in CMI Catchment

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study, CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 14

Fares from Champaign/

Urbana to east coast cities 

are among the highest per 

seat mile, with relatively short 

stage lengths. For example, 

the average fare from the 

Willard Airport catchment 

area, out of all airports 

passengers used, to 

Washington/Baltimore was 

$183 each way (see figure 

6). The average one way 

fare to New York/Newark 

was $164 in 2011, while the 

average fare to Boston was 

$157 each way.

It would be comforting to 

assume that the air service 

decline at Willard Airport has 

“bottomed out.” It would certainly seem to be the case. But one could have made the same 

assumption at any point in the last several years, and yet capacity continued to be cut, fares 

continued to rise, and passengers continued to fall. Now is the time for the University of Illinois to 

take action to reverse the trend – with the help of a Small Community Air Service Development 

Grant.

FIGURE 6: Average True One Way Fares in Top CMI Catchment Markets

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study, CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 15

AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS

The University of Illinois Willard Airport has had an active 2011 and 2012 in air service

development. Most recently, in the last six weeks, the Airport and its consultant completed a 

new True Market/Leakage-Retention Study to better identify its air service strengths and 

weaknesses. This Study will serve as the foundation for a new air service development strategy in 

the remainder of 2012 and 2013.

While the study validated some thoughts 

about the market – including the need for 

eastbound service to better connect the 

large number of international travelers with 

their destinations – it also showed some 

surprising trends. It was not anticipated that 

Chicago O’Hare would be the number one 

airport of use for Champaign/Urbana 

travelers. The number of passengers using 

other central Illinois airports was much lower 

than expected. Willard’s strategy must be 

to compete on more efficient non-stops 

over price.

The Airport also worked on an initiative in fall 

of 2011 to bring Vision Airlines non-stop 

Florida service to the market. The Airport 

invested more than $100,000 in the seasonal 

service to Punta Gorda, which performed 

well. The service ended as Vision reallocated the aircraft to cover for the shutdown of DirectAir.

The University and the Airport are committed to better serving central Illinois. The Airport makes 

air service investments where they make sense – and now has a targeted goal in securing 

eastbound non-stop service.

FIGURE 7: Willard Airport True Market Study

Source: Sixel Consulting Group; May 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 16

AIR SERVICE NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES IN CHAMPAIGN/URBANA

Willard Airport is a microcosm of the challenges in regional market air service over the last 

several years. The Airport has seen its service cut to the point it has just one airline. It’s the first 

time since deregulation in 1978 Willard Airport was served by only one carrier. With the loss of 

competing service, the Airport has had its available airline seats cut by 34% and its departures 

cut by 44%. While flights and seats have been cut, fares have rapidly increased – up 22% in just 

the last three years.

In 2011, Willard Airport has the highest 

average fare of all commercially served 

airports in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin. 

The average one way fare at Willard was 

$294 – one of the highest one way fares 

in the country for the period (see figure 

8). Willard’s fare was 78% higher than the 

regional average fare of $165 each way 

or an average of $129 more per one way 

trip. Willard’s fare was also 21% higher 

than the fare of the next closest airport 

on the list – the Evansville Regional Airport 

– which was a Small Community Air 

Service Development Grant awardee in 

2011.

Among competing airports, Willard 

Airport has, by far, the highest average 

fares – which aren’t really competitive at 

all. Willard’s average fare is 66% higher 

than the fare at Chicago O’Hare – its number one airport for passenger leakage. Willard’s fare is 

110% higher than the fare at Chicago Midway, which has low cost service provided, primarily, by 

Southwest Airlines. While the average one way fare at Bloomington/Normal is $155 each way, 

the fare at CMI is $294 – a $139 one way premium to use Champaign/Urbana’s airport (see 

figure 8).

FIGURE 8: Average One Way Fares in IL, WI, and IN

Source: US DOT OD1A; Calendar Year 2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 17

The Airport’s True Market Study was 

able to determine the average fare 

paid by travelers to and from the 

Champaign/Urbana catchment area. 

Including passengers that “leak” to other 

airports, the average fare paid to and 

from the local catchment area is $247 

one way – still higher than any average 

fare paid in the region (see figure 9). 

Passengers that fly out of Willard pay 

$294 each way on average, while 

passengers that fly out of Central Illinois 

Regional Airport in Bloomington pay $111 

less one way or 38% less than the fare at 

Willard. 

The one anomaly in the 

Champaign/Urbana True Market fare 

data is the fact that local catchment 

area passengers actually pay more to fly 

out of Chicago O’Hare than they pay to fly out of Willard. The average one way fare paid by 

Willard catchment area travelers who fly in and out of O’Hare was $320 in 2011, which is $26 

more each way than the Willard fare (see figure 9). This reflects the fact that those who “leak” 

to O’Hare tend to be on longer stage length flights, with many flying internationally due to 

improved non-stop and one-stop flight options. This illustrates the need for better long haul and 

international connectivity at Willard, and the need for eastbound service that can connect to 

European destinations.

The fare disparities, along with the lack of sufficiently competitive flight options, force the 

majority of Willard Airport catchment area passengers to use other airports. Willard Airport 

retains just 16% of its local catchment area passengers as of calendar year 2011. In its top 10 

origin and destination passenger markets, Willard retains no more than 32% of passengers to any 

market, while in its top 20 markets it retains no more than 35% of passengers (see figure 10 on 

next page). Boston has the best retention of Willard’s top markets, with almost 35%. The worst 

FIGURE 9: Fare by Airport for CMI Catchment Passengers

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study; May 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 18

retention of passengers is in the Champaign/Urbana – Orlando market where less than 3% use 

their local airport. Airports in Chicago capture between 30% and 40% of Champaign/Urbana 

passengers to top markets, while Bloomington/Normal and St. Louis capture the rest.

Champaign/Urbana passengers are pushed to other airports, in part, due to the lack of 

available seats at Willard Airport. Champaign/Urbana ranks as one of the most underserved 

markets in the Midwest. As of calendar year 2011, Champaign/Urbana had just 0.48 available 

departing airline seats per capita of its Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (see figure 11). That 

number was down from 0.57 seats 

per capita in 2010 – a loss of 16% of 

seats per capita. With less than one

half of one departing seat per 

resident per year, the 

Champaign/Urbana MSA had 

fewer available departing seats 

than both Peoria and 

Bloomington/Normal, along with

FIGURE 11: Available Seats per Capita in Illinois Markets

Source: US DOT T100, 2010 US Census; CY2011

FIGURE 10: CMI Catchment Area True Airport Market Share in Top 20 Markets

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study; May 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 19

Moline/Quad Cities. The central Illinois average number of available departing airline seats per 

capita was 0.92 in 2011. Champaign/Urbana’s available departing seats per capita was just 

48% of that average.

The same can be said about enplaned passengers per capita. Champaign/Urbana lags behind 

all but two other central Illinois cities as of calendar year 2011 (see figure 12). Willard Airport saw 

just 0.35 passengers per resident of the 

Champaign/Urbana MSA – 79% fewer

passengers per capita than the nearest 

airport – Bloomington/Normal. The central 

Illinois average number of passengers per 

capita was 0.70 in 2011 – exactly double

the average in Champaign/Urbana’s MSA.

These indicators illustrate how the 

University of Illinois Willard Airport is 

relatively underserved when compared to corollary cities in its own region. The lack of available 

seat capacity drives 84% of the market’s passengers to other airports, where they find more 

extensive flight options, more carrier choice, and lower fares. The Airport is working diligently to 

reverse this trend – this Grant application is just one the efforts the Airport is making to improve 

service.

FIGURE 12: Passengers per Capita in Illinois Markets

Source: US DOT T100, 2010 US Census; CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 20

STRATEGIC PLAN FOR NEW AIR SERVICE

In the mid-1990s Willard Airport had non-stop service to five hubs on four airline networks. By the 

mid-2000s the Airport had two airlines serving just three hubs. And as we head into the 2010 

decade, the Airport is down to just one airline with service to two hubs. While westbound 

connectivity is decent, with service through Dallas/Ft. Worth on American, and Midwest 

connectivity is solid with service through Chicago O’Hare on American, there is little to no 

eastbound connectivity.

Moreover, the Champaign/Urbana market is saddled with some of the highest fares in the 

country – and the highest average fare in the Midwest. Capacity cuts and high fares have 

forced many passengers to use other airports. Many have been priced out of flying from their 

hometown.

An analysis of the data from the Airport’s recently completed True Market Study shows the 

biggest gap in service is to the east – and the best hub/airline combination for covering that 

service gap is the United hub at Washington Dulles Airport. The service would provide 

Champaign/Urbana

with its first ever nonstop flight to the 

Washington, DC 

area, along with 

one-stop 

connections to 69 

cities, two-thirds of 

which require a 

backtrack 

connection with 

current CMI service 

(see map 2).

MAP 2: One-Stop Connections over Washington Dulles on United

Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub Builder; May 2012
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 21

The Champaign/Urbana True Market currently produces 661 origin and destination passengers 

per day each way to destinations that naturally connect over the United Airlines/Star Alliance 

Washington Dulles hub, not counting any passengers that might use the service from the other 

central Illinois catchment areas. As of calendar year 2011, the CMI True Market Study showed 

that Champaign/Urbana generated 482,530 total origin and destination passengers that would 

flow over Washington Dulles on United. Of these passengers, just 17.5% use Willard Airport, with 

82.5% flying from other airports – representing 543 passengers per day each way who leak to 

other airports.

The Willard Airport catchment area has generated as many as 82 passengers per day each way 

to and from Washington-Baltimore. The market currently generates a total of 51 passengers per 

day each way to and from the DC area, but just 31% of those passengers use Willard Airport (see 

figure 13). Since 2004, total Washington-Baltimore passengers from the Champaign/Urbana 

catchment area have declined by 37%, or an average of 30 passengers per day each way. 

During the same period, the average one way fare between Champaign/Urbana and the DC 

area is up 48%, or an average of $68 each way, to an average of $210 one way or $420 

roundtrip.

FIGURE 13: O&D Passengers and Average Fares between the CMI Catchment and Washington-Baltimore

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study; CY2002 – CY2011; Includes IAD, DCA, and BWI
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 22

Beyond local Washington-Baltimore traffic, the United hub at Dulles has potential to capture 

large portions of traffic in 69 of Champaign/Urbana’s largest origin and destination passenger 

markets. The Washington Dulles hub is especially well positioned to help Willard Airport retain its 

own catchment area passengers – particularly the ones that currently drive to Chicago area 

airports for service to the East Coast and international destinations.

Altogether, to 

destinations served by 

United over Dulles, 82.5% 

of current passengers 

generated in the 

Champaign/ Urbana 

catchment area fly out 

of airports other than 

Willard Airport. The top 

potential market over 

Dulles on United is 

Orlando, on trips to 

which less than 3% of 

Willard Airport 

catchment area 

passengers currently use 

Willard. Champaign/

Urbana generates 85.5 

passengers per day each way to the Orlando market alone, as of 2011 (see figure 14). On the 

East Coast, Dulles would best connect central Illinois to markets such as New York/Newark, to 

which the CMI catchment generates an average of 57 passengers per day each way; Boston, 

to which the CMI catchment generates an average of 28 passengers per day each way; and 

London, England, to which the CMI catchment generates an average of almost 13 passengers 

per day each way. In all of these markets current CMI passenger retention is less than 35% -

meaning two thirds of passengers generated in Champaign/Urbana that are traveling to these 

markets fly from airports other than Willard.

FIGURE 14: Top 20 O&D Passenger Markets over IAD on United

Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub Builder; CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 23

The true average fare in 

the Champaign/Urbana 

catchment area to 

destinations over the 

United hub at 

Washington Dulles is 

$219 one way as of 2011 

(see figure 15). This “true 

average” includes all 

Willard Airport 

catchment area 

passengers to and from 

all the airports they use. 

It is not exclusive to 

Willard Airport, itself, but 

it is exclusive to the 

catchment.

The Champaign/Urbana 

– Washington-Baltimore 

fare is $183 one way, as 

of 2011 (see figure 15). That works out to an average of 36 cents per mile, on a route of 506 

nautical miles. The overall average fare per seat mile in the US hovers between 17 and 20 cents 

– the CMI – Washington-Baltimore fare runs at a roughly 80% premium over the national average 

in 2011.

A third of Champaign/Urbana catchment area passengers that would flow to destinations over 

Washington Dulles on United currently drive to Chicago O’Hare to access flights. Another 19% 

use Bloomington/Normal to the same destinations. Just 17.5% of passengers from the catchment 

use Willard Airport. The poor passenger retention is especially pronounced in markets such as 

Orlando, where just 2.6% of CMI catchment area passengers are retained; South Florida, where 

just 8.4% of CMI catchment area passengers are retained; Atlanta, where just 5.3% of CMI 

catchment area passengers are retained; and Richmond, where just 6.6% of CMI catchment 

area passengers are retained (see figure 16 on next page).

FIGURE 15: Average Fares at Top O&D Markets over IAD on United

Source: Sixel Consulting Group Hub Builder; CY2011
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 24

The Airport proposes two daily flights on the Willard Airport – Washington Dulles route in each 

direction. The route between Champaign/Urbana and Washington Dulles would cover 506 

nautical miles in a flight time of one hour and 20 minutes, on average, assuming an average 

groundspeed of 400 knots on an Embraer ERJ145 aircraft seating 50 passengers in an alleconomy layout (see figure 17). 

Origin Destination Departs Arrives Block Time Equipment

CMI IAD 6:15am 9:00am 1:45 ERJ

IAD CMI 11:45am 12:30pm 1:45 ERJ

CMI IAD 1:00pm 3:45pm 1:45 ERJ

IAD CMI 6:15pm 7:00pm 1:45 ERJ

The proposed schedule is designed for ease of network integration into the Washington Dulles 

hub, ideal business connectivity to East Coast destinations for Champaign/Urbana business 

travelers – allowing for same day business trips to many destinations in the mid-Atlantic and the 

Northeast (see figure 17). An aircraft would overnight at Champaign/Urbana, departing early 

FIGURE 16: CMI Catchment Area True Airport Market Share in Top 20 Markets over IAD on United

Source: Sixel Consulting Group CMI True Market Study; May 2012

FIGURE 17: Proposed Schedule,

Champaign/Urbana – Washington Dulles
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 25

enough to hit the first departing bank of the morning at Dulles on United. The schedule has a 

late morning return to Champaign/Urbana, which would turn around in time to hit the 

afternoon/evening international bank at Dulles. The last Dulles - Champaign/Urbana flight of the 

day would leave with connections from most inbound international markets. This schedule 

would achieve two goals: providing the best possible connectivity to East Coast destinations, 

and providing excellent connectivity to international destinations.

The University of Illinois Willard Airport proposes to use a combination of locally raised funding in 

conjunction with federal Small Community Air Service Development Grant funding in support of 

the addition of a new eastbound hub. Eastbound service is essential in Champaign/Urbana, 

and in all of central Illinois, after Willard Airport lost Delta service to Detroit. The loss of these

flights left the market with no easy eastbound access. It must 

also be noted, there is no East Coast service on any airline from 

any central Illinois airport.

Willard Airport seeks a Small Community Air Service 

Development Grant, in the amount of $600,000, to help 

mitigate United’s initial monetary risk in serving the Champaign/Urbana – Washington Dulles

route. The University of Illinois Willard Airport proposes that a relatively small portion of the cost of 

starting the new service be supported up front with federal funds from the Small Community Air 

Service Development Program. Of the total project cost of $680,000, $50,000 will be used for 

marketing and advertising projects. The federal share of the project will be $600,000, all of which 

will be used for the airline revenue guarantee. The federal revenue guarantee share will be 

matched by $30,000 in local revenue guarantee money and $50,000 in local marketing money. 

Another $345,000 has been committed by the Airport and the University to reduce United’s initial 

start-up cost by offering full terminal fee waivers and landing fee credits. Including in-kind, the 

total package of incentives available for new eastbound service will total almost $1.03 million. 

The Airport projects the new flights will be profitable within 12 months. 

The proposed implementation timeline for the project assumes the Department of Transportation

will award Small Community Grant Funding in September 2012 (see figure 18). Once the award 

is announced, the University of Illinois Willard Airport will conduct airline meeting(s) to secure 

United Express service. Based on airline planning lead times and the need for advance 

bookings, we assume the service would not be able to begin until at least June of 2013.

“There is no east coast 

service on any airline from 

any central Illinois airport.”
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 26

The first three milestones on 

the Airport's timeline are to 

execute the grant 

agreement with the 

Department of 

Transportation, meet with 

United and/or United Express 

carriers to negotiate for 

service, and sign the 

minimum revenue 

guarantee agreement with 

the appropriate airline 

partner (see figure 18). Once service is announced and schedules are published, the Airport 

would begin marketing the new route and working with the new carrier to monitor advance 

bookings. The Airport will continue its marketing program and continue to work with the new 

carrier to monitor the route once service begins. The Airport would submit grant status reports on 

a quarterly basis to the Department throughout the proposed two year term of the minimum 

revenue guarantee.

While the estimated dates are targets, it is possible service could be secured and launched on a 

more aggressive timeline once Grant funding is awarded. It is also possible that new service 

could slip to 2014 should an airline require additional risk mitigation, beyond that included in this 

proposal, from the community.

If, for some unforeseen reason, service is not commenced within one year after Grant award by 

United or a United Express carrier, the University of Illinois Willard Airport proposes to use federal 

grant money awarded under the Small Community Air Service Development Program for 

additional service on another airline to a market east of Champaign/Urbana. Other options 

include service to Washington National on US Airways Express, service to Philadelphia on US 

Airways Express, service to Charlotte on US Airways Express, service to Atlanta on Delta, service 

to Detroit on Delta, or service to Cleveland on United Express. Should none of these options 

become workable, the Airport will continue its discussions with all other carriers that can provide 

additional seats to a hub not currently served.

FIGURE 18: Grant Implementation Timeline

Source: University of Illinois Willard Airport

Activity/Project Milestone Estimated Date

SCASD Grant Award Announcement September 2012

Executive Grant Agreement with DOT October 2012

Meet With Prospective Airlines Oct/Nov 2012

Negotiate Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) With Airline Jan - Mar 2013

Announce Service March 2013

Publish Schedule March 2013

Begin Marketing of New Route March 2013

Monitor Advance Bookings March - June 2013

Service Launch June 2013

MRG Available for Service June 2013 - October 2015

Monitor Route Performance June 2013 - October 2015

Submit Grant Status Reports to DOT Quarterly Q4 2012 - Q4 2015

Close Grant October 2015
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 27

PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

The Airport has also developed an air service development partnership program, reaching out 

to businesses and community leaders. The Cities of Champaign and Urbana, the University of 

Illinois, and Willard Airport will all work together on this air service development project. Other 

local partners will be working with the Airport to promote and market the new service. The 

Airport will manage and coordinate the marketing program. Partners in the program are listed 

below, including their role in the effort to retain current air service and recruit additional air 

service.

Champaign County Economic Development Corporation

The Champaign County Economic Development Corporation is a public-private partnership 

dedicated to fostering a cooperative, county-wide approach to economic development. The 

organization coordinates with a number of other key organizations in the area to promote an 

environment in which business thrives.

Champaign County Alliance

The Champaign County Alliance is a service organization for the Champaign County Chamber 

of Commerce, the Champaign County Economic Development Corporation (EDC) and the 

Champaign County Convention and Visitors Bureau (CVB). The Alliance is made up of a board 

of directors with representation from the Chamber, the EDC and the CVB, plus the top investors 

(collectively) in the three organizations. These three top investors are the cities of Champaign 

and Urbana and the University of Illinois. 

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

The University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign is a public research university located in Urbana

and Champaign. 2009 enrollment was 31,209 undergraduate and 10,701 graduate students. 

UIUC is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious campus in the University of Illinois system. The 

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign is the second oldest public university in the state, second 

to Illinois State University. The university has 17 colleges and instructional units offering more than 

150 programs of study.
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 28

LEGAL SPONSOR

As the owner and operator of Willard Airport, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is the 

legal sponsor responsible for administering the program. The University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign is a government entity.

University of Illinois Office of Capital Programs and Real Estate Services

807 South Wright Street, Suite 340, MC-309

Champaign, Illinois 61820

Bruce K. Walden, Director

Phone: 217-244-8496

Fax: 217-244-8802

bwalden@uillinois.edu
University of Illinois Willard Airport • Small Community Air Service Development Grant Proposal • June 11, 2012 29

CONCLUSIONS

In the last 15 years, the University of Illinois Willard Airport has witnessed the departure of four 

airlines and the cancellation of service on seven routes. Today, the Airport has just one carrier 

offering service, despite a catchment that serves more than 390,000 people, and the State of 

Illinois’ flagship public university with an enrollment of more than 50,000 students. Current service 

at Willard Airport is not adequate for the catchment area, as proven by the Airport’s new 

leakage study which shows almost 84% of catchment area passengers drive to other airports.

It would be comforting to assume that the air service decline at Willard Airport has “bottomed 

out.” But one could have made the same assumption at any point in the last several years, and 

yet capacity continued to be cut, fares continued to rise, and passengers continued to fall. 

Now is the time for the University of Illinois to take action to reverse the trend – with the help of a 

Small Community Air Service Development 

Grant.

The University and the Airport seek great 

potential for the success of new air service to 

an eastbound hub. The Airport’s True Market 

Study shows the best positioned hub for 

Champaign/Urbana travelers is the United operation at Washington Dulles. That hub has the 

potential to access an average of 661 passengers per day each way to and from the Willard 

Airport catchment area at an average fare of $219 each way. Of those 661 current passengers 

per day each way that would flow over Dulles on United 82.5% currently leak to airports other 

than Willard – an average of 543 leaked passengers per day each way that could be 

recovered.

With fuel costs rising to near all-time highs the Airport understands it will not be able to provide 

an incentive package for new service on its own. While it has developed a strong set of 

matching funds, it must have the support of the Small Community Air Service Development 

Program for the project described in this application to come to fruition. The Airport believes this 

federal investment in the Champaign/Urbana market will provide for better connectivity for east 

central Illinois travelers, lower fares throughout central Illinois, and increased access to markets 

for companies doing business in the region.

“Current service at Willard Airport is 

not adequate for the catchment 

area, as proven by the Airport’s 

new leakage study...”