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NOAA’S ARCTIC VISION & STRATEGY

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

April 2010
NOAA Arctic Tiger Team

Laura K. FurgioneAssistant AdministratorOffice of Program Planning and IntegrationDouglas DeMaster, Ph.D.Science and Research DirectorAlaska Fisheries Science CenterJohn A. Calder, Ph.D.Climate Program OfficeAshley ChappellOffice of Coast SurveyAmy E. HolmanAlaska Regional CoordinatorElizabeth S. McLanahanOffice of International AffairsJames E. Overland, Ph.D.Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryJeremy M. PotterOffice of Ocean Exploration and ResearchTracy L. RouleauOffice of Program Planning and IntegrationNOAA’s Arctic Vision and Strategy is a draft report that has been prepared for external review. Once feedback is obtained from partnerbenefit from these enhanced and coordinated efforts in the Arctic region, this report will be finalized.
Table of Contents

Executive SummaryIntroduction

Evidence of a Changing ArcticNOAA’s Evolving Role in the ArcticStrategic Alignment of NOAA Priorities

NOAA’s Arctic Vision

Guiding Principles

Arctic Goals and StrategyConclusion and Next Steps

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All images provided by NOAA, with the following exceptions: table of contents page -- Armin Rose; pages 2, 12, and 18 -- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; page 4 -- Andrzej Gibasiewicz; p

(far left), and back cover -- Elizabeth Calvert, University of Alaska - Fairbanks; page 6 (bottom right) -- Bodil Bluhm, University of Alaska-Fairbanks; page 7 -- U.S. Geological Survey; pag

-- Laurens Groenendijk; page 22 (bottom) -- Minerals Management Service; page 26 -- Potopov Alexander; and page 31 -- Vitaliy M.
“For centuries annual sea ice has protected the Arctic and its inhabitants. Now the Arctic, both on 

land and sea, is being transformed by significant warming. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is happening at a faster pace than we had predicted, and an ice-diminished Arctic Ocean is creating many new opportunities. These opportunities must be pursued in ways that will ensure our precious ecosystems and Arctic communities remain healthy and resilient, now and for future generations.” The Honorable Dr. Jane Lubchenco,  NOAA Administrator and Under Secretary of  Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

Executive Summary

NOAA’s Arctic Vision & Strategy

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The Arctic (Figure 1) has profound significance for climate and functioning of ecosystems around the gloThe region is particularly vulnerable and prone to rapid change. Increasing air and ocean temperatures, thawing permafrost, loss of sea ice, and shifts in ecosystems are evidence of widespread and dramatic ongoing change. As a result, critical environmental, economic, and national security issues are emerging, many of which have significant impacts for human lives, livelihoods, and coastal communities. Though NOAA has numerous and diverse capabilities that support these emerging issues, a strategic approach that leverages NOAA’s existing priorities and strengths, as well as those of our national and international partners, is needed. This document provides a high-level framework and six strategic goals to address NOAA’s highest priorities in the region. It is based upon assumptions that the region will: 1) continue texperience dramatic change, 2) become more accessible to human activities, and 3) be a focus of increasiglobal strategic interest.NOAA envisions an Arctic where decisions and actions related to conservation, management, and use arbased on sound science and support healthy, productive, and resilient communities and ecosystems. Thagency seeks a future where the global implications of Arctic change are better understood and predicted
NOAA will focus its efforts on the following six priority goals needed to realize this vision:

1) Forecast Sea Ice2) Strengthen Foundational Science to Understand and Detect Arctic Climate and Ecosystem Changes 3) Improve Weather and Water Forecasts and Warnings4) Enhance International and National Partnerships 5) Improve Stewardship and Management of Ocean and Coastal Resources in the Arctic6) Advance Resilient and Healthy Arctic Communities and EconomiesThese goals were selected because they represent areas where NOAA can address urgent and timely issues that meet two kethe information, knowledge, and policies to meet NOAA mandates and stewardship responsibilities, and providing the inf

Figure 1. The Arctic: As used in this docummeans all United States and foreign territory and all United States territory north and wesby the Porcupine, Yukon, and Kuskokwim Riincluding the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufortand the Aleutian chain. For purposes of this illustrates the Arctic as defined under the Arcand does not represent or reflect the position ointernational boundaries and limits depicted Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committe

knowledge, and services to enable others to live and operate safely in the Arctic. Each goal also fulfills international goals and establishes, enhances, or leverages partnerships with other Arctic nations, international organizations, government agencies, and non-governmental organizations, academia, and local communities. The goals are also geared towards generating large societal benefits relative to the resources required and strengthening NOAA’s engagement, politically, scientifically, internationally, and publicly.NOAA will next develop and execute a five-year Arctic Action Plan to achieve these goals. Development and execution of the plan will require coordination across all NOAA Line and Staff Offices and collaboration with local, regional, federal, nongovernmental, and academic partners. As a starting point, NOAA will establish a single point of contact within NOAA Senior Executive Leadership who will be accountable for achieving the Arctic goals. The Arctic Action Plan will also include an engagement strategy for reaching internal and external employees, partners, and stakeholders, as well as a detailed budget strategy. NOAA is committed to enhancing its current involvement in research and management programs in the Arctic, and anticipates an initial investment of $10 million towards the implementation of this strategy, recognizing that additional funds will be needed to achieve the goals.
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Evidence of a Changing Arctic

There is now widespread and dramatic evidence of overall change in the Aobservations are highlighted in the annual NOAA Arctic Report Card (ww

• Atmosphere – Recent Arctic temperature increases are more than 

southerly latitudes. The Arctic’s 2008 annual mean air temperaturwarmest on record, which continues a long-term upward trend.

• Sea Ice – Four of the last five years represent the lowest sea ice exte

water extending later into the fall prior to freeze-up. Thick multi-ypercent in the last five years.

• Ocean – From the Aleutian Islands to Barrow, Alaska, ocean ecosy

a combination of Arctic warming, large natural variability, and senconditions.

These changes in Arctic climate have local to global implications. The Polremote from the population centers of the globe, have profound significanthermostat to stabilize the Earth’s climate. They act not only as regulators also as barometers of change. National security concerns are increasing as other climate-induced changes bring increased opportunities for economic access to Arctic resources. These economic drivers, in turn, can further thinhabitants already impacted by the rapidly changing climate. The risks to Arctic stewardship are further intensified because the science that underpmaking processes and support services is largely inadequate. 

Introduction
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International and domestic interest in the Arctic is increasing in concert with broader discussions regarding climate change, national security, and stewardship. Some examples include: 

• The U.S. Government’s issuance in January 2009 of a National Arctic Policy (National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD 66)/ Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD 25),• The November 2009 issuance of the Navy Arctic Road Map, developed by the Navy Task Force Climate Change, • The Secretary of Commerce’s February 2009 approval of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council’s Arctic Fishery Management Plan, which prohibits expansion of commercial fishing in U.S. federal waters in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas,• Recent decisions on listings of Arctic marine mammals under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act,• Establishment of the Extended Continental Shelf Interagency Task Force to support a potential claim as allowed under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (2007),• The State of Alaska’s move to take immediate actions and plan longer-term research and operations addressing a broad range of impacts (Governor’s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet 2007, Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission 2007), and • The Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force’s recognition of the Arctic as an area of special emphasis in its interim report (see sidebar).

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The Interim Report of tPolicy Task Force (Septe“Changing Conditionof special emphasis, caOcean Policy to “addrstewardship needs in tadjacent coastal areas induced and other envThe interim report calconserve, protect, and coastal and ocean resoand partnerships to beenvironmental conditscientific understandiand how it is changing induced and other chaArctic goals were devethe recommendations Force.
Pre-decisional -- Draft 

NOAA’s Evolving Role in the ArcProviding Critical Science, Services, & S

to the Arctic & Partners

No single region better demonstrates the complex interdependence of communecosystem conditions than the Arctic. The breadth and complexity of the culturand environmental impacts requires a concerted, systematic, and rapid effort wlocal to international levels. NOAA provides vital Arctic science, services, and sinformation and products that form a critical foundation for science and manaresources in Arctic oceans and on the coasts—products that are essential for othin their Arctic missions. However, achieving the Nation’s Arctic goals requires partnerships at all levels of governance. NOAA is building and continues to adwith several international, federal, state, and local partners and stakeholders focInteragency and international cooperation should be an element of most of NOshould be included in relevant project plans. Some elements of collaboration hand need to be organized and conducted for the benefit of NOAA as a whole. participation in interagency working groups such as the Interagency Arctic Reseimplementation and development of international agreements, and participatioactivities focused on the Arctic.Given our science, service, and stewardship responsibilities to Arctic residents amust engage its diverse and unique capabilities to rapidly address the emerging economic, and national security issues in the Arctic. NOAA’s scientific capabilincrease our understanding of climate and assess key environmental trends; to presponse to those trends; and to offer the technical expertise needed to develop planning and management strategies for mitigation and adaptation to the envirthe Arctic region. NOAA’s service capabilities are needed to support safety and marine mammal protection, transportation, energy, infrastructure, and mineral unique Arctic environment. NOAA’s legal and regulatory authorities and opercooperation requirements will set the framework for delivery of our science, ser
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Strategic Alignment of NOAA’s PrioritiesNOAA’s Annual Guidance Memorandum, signed August 5, 2009, identified the need to “strengthen Arctic science and sefive strategic priorities. The other four priorities include: 1) enhance NOAA’s climate services and support the establishmService, 2) support Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, 3) ensure sustainability of marine fisheries, and 4) sustain satellitThis Arctic strategy integrates the enhanced capacity provided by implementing NOAA’s strategic priorities and positions Nthese areas. Concurrently, it aligns NOAA’s Arctic goals to directly support priorities of our federal partners.
NOAA’s Arctic Vision

NOAA envisions an Arctic where:

• Conservation, management, and use are based on sound science and 

and resilient communities and ecosystems; and 

• The global implications of Arctic change are better understood and pr

Guiding PrinciplesThe U.S. and its partners will greatly benefit from enhanced and better coordArctic region. Though NOAA’s scientific interests in the Arctic are broad, thilishes a limited set of guiding principles that emerged from the strategic plannactivities in the next one to five years will:

1) Provide outcomes critical for other agencies to succeed in fulfilling th

support the implementation of the National Ocean Policy,

2) Strive to better understand the linkages between oceans and climate, 3) Advance the implementation of ecosystem-based management and Co

Planning, 

4) Concentrate action in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort areas, but b5) Enable, inspire, and engage our partners and stakeholders, both dom6) Incorporate the value of traditional and local knowledge,7) Integrate a coordinated education and outreach program that encomp

education and the general public,

8) Incorporate new developments in science and technology, and9) Anticipate, respond, and adapt to new and emerging issues of import
Arctic Goals & Strategy

NOAA’s six Arctic goals are both integrated and crosscutting, and are designed to achieve NOAA’s Arctic vision. The goals, and initial priorities described within them, were developed based on a set of criteria vetted across NOAA’s Line Offices, Staff Offices, and Goal Teams; and derived from the Draft NOAA Strategic Plan for the Arctic. They are intended to support the goals and priorities of our federal and intergovernmental partners and stakeholders. The goals first provide a foundation for improved research and understanding of the scientific underpinnings, climate changes, and dynamic feedback loops that are needed to support effective stewardship and address national security concerns. Increased scientific understanding and improved service delivery of predictions and forecasts, in concert with increased cooperation and collaboration with national and international partners, will result in more effective management of coastal and ocean resources and resilient and vibrant Arctic communities and economies (Figure 2). 

Figure 2. NOAA’s Strategic Arctic Goalsintegration of NOAA’s Arctic goals.
Pre-decisional -- Draft 

Goal 1: Forecast Sea IceGoal Statement – Accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to suppoecosystem stewardship.Importance: Continued rapid loss of sea ice will be a major driver of large changes across the Arctic (Figure 3). The loss 

access, regional weather, ecosystem changes, and coastal communities. Food webs are expected to dramatically shift betweeand pelagic webs as ice cover diminishes. The understanding of ice as a habitat also has implications for oil spill response the Arctic Ocean becomes seasonally passable and tourism, oil and gas exploration, and shipping increase, floating sea ice maritime safety and increase the potential for oil spills in the region.Projections of a nearly sea ice-free summer by the end of the century, made just three years ago, have been revised recently summers may occur before mid-century (Figure 4). Arctic change is accelerated by the unique physical properties associated to accelerate warming of the Arctic, driven by increasing greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere. Reduction in summe

Figure 3. Arctic summer sea-ice cover has decreased over 35 percent over the last 30 years, and the amount of stable long-term multi-year sea ice has decreased by the same amount.

Figure 4. Model projections of sea ice thickness when the Arctic is years. Units for sea ice thickness are meters. Figure from Wang and 
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of solar energy and creates additional ocean heat storage in newly formed sea ice-free areas. Further, the additional heat stored in the ocean during summer is given back to the atmosphere the following autumn, causing changes in normal patterns of weather and climate variability with global consequences. The ability to quantitatively forecast Arctic sea ice over varied time scales requires regular observation of Arctic atmospheric and ocean states, circulation, and sea ice characteristics; understanding of the interactions among clouds, radiation, and aerosols; and development of coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean models.NOAA’s current activities: NOAA is currently conducting sea ice analysis and forecasts, evaluation of sea ice projections in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models, conducting and analyzing satellite and airborne observations of sea ice freeboard or thickness, improving satellite image analyses, and contributions toward the Arctic buoy program.Five-year strategy: Improving daily to weekly sea ice models and forecasts and 

new seasonal prediction services will fill a critical gap in marine weather and climate services that will benefit community activities, support the management of protected marine resources, and improve safe operation and navigation through these waters as marine transportation and industry use expands. There is currently no up-to-date sea ice atlas for Alaskan waters, necessary for operational planning. Native communities have noted that not only is the extent and timing of sea ice changing, but its character (floe size, thickness, ridging) is also changing. Forecast 

improvements can be made by enhancing and integrating different types of observations of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean, including use of local knowledge, classifying sea ice characteristics, and directly combining data-assimilating sea ice models and climatological information with forecast models. Seasonal predictions, particularly the period of open water that defines an extended operations and shipping season, are increasingly in demand. An exploratory Sea Ice Outlook, led by NOAA and the National Science Foundation, in coordination with 20 international contributors, suggests that it is possible to develop seasonal predictions constrained by late spring sea ice conditions and driven by projected weather conditions.

Multi-decadal sea ice projections are required fecosystem stewardship under rapidly changof global climate impacts forced by changes Arctic. The most important requirement is in climate projections forced by anthropogethe large natural variability in the Arctic. Cprojections are based on a judicious evaluatprovided through the IPCC Fourth Assessmanticipate a major evaluation of the new min the Arctic using information that will soIPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Further, spand Earth system models need to target Arcare necessary but not sufficient for regional development of regional models is also neeRetrospective and prospective studies of the linkasea ice and hemispheric weather and climate wiof how these changes affect larger areas. Theastern Asia and the eastern U.S. during withe importance of shifts in hemispheric climweather events, specifically the combination hemisphere patterns of variability—El Nino also known as the Arctic Oscillation. Recenconnection between shifts in Arctic climate variability in mid-latitudes. Such Arctic/miexpected to strengthen over the next decadefurther sea ice loss. Being able to better preconnections requires detailed case studies ofeedback processes and Arctic/mid-latitude These studies are required to achieve improweather and climate forecasts for the Arctic mid-latitude regions.
Pre-decisional -- Draft 

Goal 2: Strengthen Foundational Science to Underst

Detect Arctic Climate & Ecosystem Changes 

Goal Statement – Improved baseline observations and understanding of Arctic climate and ecosystems reduces assessing and predicting impacts caused by a changing Arctic.Importance: While sea ice extent can be tracked by satellite sensors from year to year, there is much greater uncertainty in 

magnitudes of social and ecological impacts caused by Arctic climate changes and economic development. The Arctic will cterm surprises as ecosystems move toward new and generally unknown states. Previous data and understanding can providexample, the response of marine primary production and the impacts on higher levels of the food chain from additional lounknown. Recent data show that a simple conceptual model of a uniform northward shift of ecosystems as the Arctic warmexamples of changes in the Arctic are the warming of permafrost, increased coastal erosion, sea level changes, shifts in land patterns, the recent decrease in the pollock stock of the Bering Sea, and changes in land-based human subsistence resourceunderstanding climate change in the Arctic is important for other socioeconomic applications as well, including sea level atransportation, and community resilience. While the International Polar Year initiated a single intensive observational perNOAA missions require an enhanced effort to achieve sustained observations. NOAA’s current activities: NOAA has a variety of ongoing and/or recent Arctic-focused climate and ecosystem projects, buinadequate to address existing needs. This goal provides necessary baseline ecosystem-level information and identifies four uncertainties in NOAA provided information: ecosystem responses to sea ice loss, necessary additional climate observationlevel information, and accelerated methane release.
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Five-year strategy: An enhanced and integrated set of environmental 

observations is required to track the new trajectory of Arctic change across land, in the atmosphere, and in the ocean, including physical indicators, biological responses, and social and economic impacts. Rapid organization, interpretation, and dissemination of this information in near real-time is also a necessity, placing it in context with past conditions, natural variability, and model studies. Increased knowledge gained through this process, combined with model forecasts, will further enhance NOAA’s capability to project and respond to future change. These enhancements would form the basis for a NOAA Arctic Change Detection System. Such a system also includes a marine Distributed Biological Observatory

(DBO) in the U.S. Arctic for consistent monitoring of biophysical responses in four pivotal oceanographic areas along a north-south 

High Arctic BiodiversityIn June/July 2005, NOAA organized an international team of 45 scientists from the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and Russia in a collaborative effort to explore the frigid depths of the Canada Basin, one of the deepest parts of the Arctic Ocean. The expedition focused on assessing the diversity of life and the environment in all three major realms of the Arctic—the sea ice, the water column, and the sea floor. For one month, 35 members of the science party and 75 U.S. Coast Guard crewmembers worked together on board the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy to conduct round-the-clock science operations. Scientists examined the hidden world of life in these extreme conditions with the aid of divers, photographic platforms, and a remotely operated vehicle specially designed to operate under ice and at great depth. More traditional techniques like ice coring, plankton nets, and bottom trawls supported these efforts. Expedition results form much of the basis of the January 2010 special issue of the journal Deep Sea Research.

Figure 5. Four possible regional locations of Distributed Biologfor standard hydrological and biological measurements in the Pmarine mammal detection. These stations would include Canaand U.S. research vessels, coordinated through the internationaresearch from coastal communities using helicopters, small ship

latitudinal gradient (Figure 5). Each area exproductivity, biodiversity, and gradients in edirect linkages to subsistence-based coastal projected to experience increased commercice. The Bering Strait region represents potcommercial shipping and resource exploratand management of biological resources. Awill track the rate of ecosystem change and impacts. The DBO was the central recommsponsored workshop in May 2009 on the bice. The DBO integrates biological and phymooring and dedicated repeat ship occupatinternational network of logistical support. American Long-term Census of the Arctic (expanded to improve the exchange of inforfield changes in the Arctic. 
Pre-decisional -- Draft 

The science community was surprised by the rate of loss of summer Arctic sea ice from 2007 through 2009, as well as the mthe regional and potentially hemispheric ocean and atmosphere. Current observing systems are inadequate to track and unin-situ, airborne, and satellite observing technologies are needed to fill gaps in meteorological and oceanographic fields. Wprofiles of air temperatures, they are less reliable in the lower layers of the Arctic atmosphere. For example, three areas of eanalysis products, which in turn are the basis for understanding current Arctic change and improving forecasts. First, in situ 

Arctic Ocean are needed to stabilize the satellite data in reanalysis products and initial conditions. Second, increase the numterm moorings. It is imperative to know upper ocean temperatures at the beginning of the summer melt and fall sea-ice freezesea ice conditions. Long-term biophysical moorings at key locations in the Arctic are essential for tracking influx of heat to should work to maintain real-time access to NOAA and other national and international satellites to fill critical gaps in observatioCryoSat, the Canadian RadarSat, and Indian satellites. In addition, NOAA needs to continue and enhance research on inregional products and scientific analyses to make the best use of these expensive systems.Water-level information and forecasts are necessary for coastal community hazard resilience. NOAA is limited in its ability to m

insufficient resources and outdated historical data sets. Increased sea-ice-free areas in fall allow a completely new wave and develop. Deficiencies in information include accurate elevations based on new and updated gravity data and a geodetic fratide gauge network. Traditional tide gauges have difficulties in freezing and sea ice areas, but these difficulties can be overcoconduct circum-Arctic sea level analyses using all in situ and satellite data available from national and international sourcesRecent research has shown that methane is being released from thawing permafrost on land and in shallow coastal seas. Tpotentially available for release is very large, but there are no data sets that allow an estimate of the current rate of methane and how this rate may be changing over time. New synoptic observations over large regions of the Arctic, coupled with modeling and determine if methane release from Arctic permafrost will be another positive, and powerful, feedback to the global climate 
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Goal 3: Improve Weather and Water Forecasts and WGoal Statement – Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society can prepare for anweather-related routine and extreme events.Importance: Major stakeholders and partners, including the U.S. Coast Guard and the State of Alaska Division of Home

Management, require more useful weather and water information for planning and decision making to protect lives, propemany resources. Arctic weather also plays an important role in global weather; understanding this role is essential to imprArctic populations rely on aviation and marine systems for transportation and access to goods and services. A 2006 study of Occupational Safety and Health reported that the accident rate for commercial pilots in Alaska was five times higher thaAdditionally, Alaska’s $4 billion fishing industry is one of the most dangerous in the Nation. Improvements in weather anto increased safety and efficiency in these important sectors. Environmental observations and studies supporting weather alimited in both geographic scope and frequency. For example, there is inadequate real-time meteorological data in U.S. Arforecasting of fall sea storms, which threatens marine transportation, offshore oil and gas operations, and the Arctic coastaU.S. lost access to satellite data that detected sea ice, river ice, and ocean surface winds. This information was critical in foevents such as rapid sea ice formation, river ice jams, and hurricane force winds.
Climate change is also affecting the Arctic environment, as evidenced by changing precipitation patterns, later freezing and earlier thawing of snow and ice, and changing sea level. People living along rivers and inland waterways face increasing disruption due to more frequent and devastating flooding. Still others face drought, straining municipal water supplies and putting the sustainability of entire businesses and communities at risk. Alaska’s strategic location and waterways present both challenges and opportunities in terms of marine transportation, homeland security, and economic development. 

NOAA’s current activities: NOAA provides forecasts, warnings, and information for surface, marine, and aviation weather interests, with emphasis, when possible, on high-impact events such as extratropical storms and polar lows, storm surge and other coastal hazards such as tsunamis, heavy precipitation, floods, droughts, volcanic ash, and space weather. Services are delivered through a number of media from Internet to high frequency radio broadcasts.

Updating Alaska’s Precipitation FreqNOAA is using a team of experts, and a set oupdate the 40-year-old Precipitation FrequenState of Alaska. The PFE data are commonlrunoff-related loss of life and property and to data provide rainfall-related criteria used exteand environmental communities for the dessewers and drainage systems, for environmenfor sediment control. The criteria are used bManagement Agency to update National Floand by the Environmental Protection AgencDischarge Elimination System Program to restreams. Results from climate change investithe seasonality, amount, and type of precipitlocations. NOAA uses these criteria for comthat could produce flash flooding. NOAA exin September 2010.
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Five-year strategy: Predictive services are generally not of the same accuracy, resolution (temporal and spatial), and reliabi

latitude regions. Forecasts of weather and water conditions lack detail beyond 60-72 hours and lose reliability considerably for this discrepancy is the relative coarseness of the observational fields to support meteorological and oceanographic modand satellite observing technologies are needed to fill gaps in meteorological and oceanographic datasets, with then intent global weather forecasts. NOAA must expand services by addressing greater needs for observations, modeling, and forecasttechniques for ensuring this information leads to the best possible decisions and associated response. Science and technolbased on advanced numerical models, including ranges of uncertainty. Improved Earth system models will include couplinand ice at local, regional, and global scales.NOAA must improve Arctic marine weather, sea ice, and storm surge forecast services by addressing greater needs for observations, incorporating new techniques for ensuring this information leads to the best possible decisions and associated response. Imensure the safety and security of marine transportation, mineral (oil and gas) exploration, and tourism activities, and proteccoastal communities from storm surge, inundation, and erosion hazards. The operational marine weather service infrastructure in will enable NOAA to provide regular forecasts and on-demand support for the Arctic Ocean to meet the NOAA mandate twell as enhance the economy and fulfill NOAA’s obligations under international treaties.
Goal 4: Enhance International & 

Partnerships

Goal Statement – National and international partners are engaged to sharing of data, observational platforms, and intellectual resources to comprehensive attainment of NOAA’s Arctic science and ecosystem-bImportance: The Arctic is comprised of the northern regions of eight coun

areas. As the Arctic climate continues its warming trend, sea ice in the Arctifreshwater entering the Arctic from rivers is increasing. These changes in the to impact the globe, making it urgent that NOAA builds on its abilities to oband respond to these Arctic changes. Both national and international partnedata gaps; improve analyses, models, and forecasts; and apply ecosystem-based 

NOAA’s current activities: NOAA currently cooperates with other govern

and Technology (S&T) Agreements and NOAA-specific agreements, as well ainstitutions and organizations. S&T Agreements and Memorandums of UnNorway, Sweden, Finland, Canada, and Denmark support NOAA’s work wit

Enhance International and National Partnerships: Arctic Council

NOAA has played a key role in major products of the Arctic Council and is now providing leadership on future products. By enhancing and institutionalizing its support for the Council, NOAA can exert stronger leadership on the Council’s science-based activities and offer greater support to U.S. Arctic policy goals. The Arctic Council is the only intergovernmental group that focuses solely on the Arctic. By engaging through the Council with the other seven Arctic countries, permanent participants, and the several observer countries, the goals outlined in this plan can be more readily achieved. 

areas such as wmarine observecosystem mamonitoring. . to cooperate obetter understthe Earth’s enArctic atmospmanned obserSummit, GreeNOAA is also numerous intas the World MInternational International 
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and the Arctic Council. NOAA serves in leadership roles in two Arctic Council working groups (Protection of the Arctic MArctic Monitoring and Assessment Program), while providing expertise to others. Current Arctic Council work includes apollutants in the Arctic, reviewing the comprehensiveness of governance mechanisms for the Arctic, and understanding thArctic ecosystems. Five-year strategy: Modeling climate change at the regional and global levels is an enormous task, best accomplished by sh

– with universities and researchers, with other Arctic countries, and with non-Arctic countries possessing satellite and obseArctic. NOAA must continue and expand these relationships through partnerships and formal bilateral arrangements. Unhow ice cover and consistency will change in the Arctic will necessitate cooperation. NOAA should increase both its interapartnerships to increase the accuracy, timeliness, and coverage of its sea ice forecasts – ensuring seamless transitions across enhancing safe navigation. With reduced sea ice comes opportunities for trans-Arctic shipping, increased oil and gas exploration and extraction, touriincrease regional vessel traffic, as well as associated threats such as oil spills, transport of invasive species, and collisions witNOAA, working through the interagency process, should expand Arctic protection mechanisms at the international level (e.g., Organization), including developing a mandatory Polar Code, Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas, vessel routing measures and choke points such as the Bering Strait). NOAA also should increase hydrographic charting and cooperation in the region Hydrographic Organization).These changes in climate and sea ice are also driving changes in marine ecosystems, species abundance, and composition, iunderstood. NOAA should provide leadership and additional resources to support Arctic governance and science organizations. Spe

support the Arctic Council and its working groups, which monitor and assess biodiversity, climate, and the health of humacontribute to international approaches to ecosystem and protected area management, and management of shipping. The ICommittee and the Pacific Arctic Group identify science priorities across countries and build trusted and lasting relationshThe Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) activity co-sponsored by the Arctic Council and the International Arctto become an effective mechanism for sharing data among the Arctic countries and for identifying critical observing systemfor long periods. The success of SAON will make achievement of NOAA Arctic science goals more likely and NOAA shoueffective international SAON process.Continued coordination across federal entities, such as that provided by the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committeeoverarching U.S. Arctic Policy goals, particularly those identified by the U.S. Arctic Policy (NSPD 66/HSPD 25) and the InForce. Scientific research and discovery will proceed in collaboration with the National Science Foundation, and other fedacademia, non-governmental organizations, and private entities. Due to the interconnected nature of Arctic ecosystems, thcontinue to improve collaboration and engagement with other Arctic nations through international mechanisms, such as tbilateral relationships, to better understand, observe, research, and manage Arctic resources.
Goal 5: Improve Stewardship & 

Management of Ocean & Coastal 

Resources in the Arctic

Goal Statement – Conservation, management, and use of ocean and coastal resources are based on sound science and support healthy, productive, and resilient ecosystems and communities.Importance: As the Arctic Ocean becomes more accessible with the retreat 

of sea ice in summer months, cascading consequences must be anticipated. Biophysical and chemical changes in the ocean, combined with increasing human uses will impact the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. Currently commercial harvest of groundfish, shellfish, salmon and other resources, primarily in the Bering Sea, constitute almost 50 percent of marine fish landings in the U.S. Further, these same resources, plus various species of marine mammals, seabirds, and other marine life are critical to the maintenance of the subsistence lifestyle of over 40,000 indigenous people who inhabit small towns and villages on Alaska’s Arctic coastline. It is therefore critical to both the U.S. economy and the coastal inhabitants of the U.S. Arctic that NOAA, in cooperation with Federal, state, and local partners and stakeholders, expand its capabilities to understand and predict the full spectrum of changes associated with climate change in the Arctic, with the intended outcome of improving the stewardship of Arctic marine resources. 

NOAA’s current activities: NOAA currently conducts population assessments and ecological process studies to meet its living marine resource management mandates. However, data in the Arctic are insufficient to make adequate assessments, and it is currently beyond the scope of existing ecosystem models to provide reliable indications of how loss of sea ice, increased ocean acidity, and increasing ocean temperatures will impact key fish and mammal species. NOAA will need to expand aspects of its current Arctic ecosystem research program and the regional Alaska Ocean Observing System, as well as implement better data collection, analyses, and models to provide reliable predictions of the changes coming to marine ecosystems in the U.S. Arctic. 

Extended Continental SSince 2001, NOAA activities efforts to gather and analyze limits of its extended continethe Arctic region. The primaestablish the limits of the aremiles where the United Staterights over seabed and sub-senatural resources. NOAA is Department-led interagency To date, U.S. data collection of bathymetric and seismic inthe scope of ECS, collecting data would enhance the existthe U.S. with a better undersand economic value of these into issues such as climate vaand undiscovered or unconvand mineral resources. 
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Five-year strategy: At present, the biggest limiting factor in providing managers with the information they need regarding t

on Arctic living marine resources off Alaska is access to survey vessels and aircraft during the ice-free summer months and sampling tools including autonomous sea gliders, passive acoustic recorders, and satellite-linked tags. Specifically, very few to assess the status of living marine resources in the northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. Additional Arctic survein NOAA’s Fleet and Aircraft Recapitalization plans, which include state-of-the-art replacements of aging NOAA survey vescharters are required to meet capacity shortfalls. Also, resources are needed to conduct ecological process studies on how loacidity, and sea surface temperature warming will change the productivity and composition of Arctic marine resources in wBecause of fiscal limitations, it is beyond the capability of NOAA to address all of these deficiencies in the next five years. NOAA is proposing to expand two existing programs, while continuing on-going assessment programs on marine mammals, fish, a

Figure 5. RUSALCA Ecosystem stations taken 77N on the Chukchi Plateau.

Aleutian Salmon International Survey (BASIS) and the RUSALCA (Figure 6), which are cooperative international research programs in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas, and 2) NOAA’s ocean acidification program. The former will provide 

critical information on the biodiversity of this region and a baseline for assessing how biodiversity will respond to climate change and loss of sea ice. The latter activity will result in greater attention given to the impact of more corrosive waters on the ecology and life history of key Arctic species such as king crab. The geographic scope of this proposal is therefore limited to the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas. This is a critical region because of the connectivity of the high Arctic marine ecosystems with the Bering Sea through the Bering Strait. Further, the expansion of existing research programs in this area is a cost-effective way to address critical information needs. Expansion of the existing research program in the Beaufort Sea will be dependent on the availability of funding between 2015 and 2020. The data produced by the continuation and expansion of these two on-going research programs will provide a subset of the information needed to develop models that will allow resource managers to better assess the risk of action or inaction, as well as the relative benefit of specific actions. Integrated ecosystem assessments and operational ecosystem modeling will ultimately require further investments in human and facility infrastructure in the Arctic (e.g., real-time seaice monitoring at the appropriate scale for safe maritime operations). Through conservation, research, and response to environmental threats, NOAA will assist the part of the U.S. that is already impacted by climate change in developing riskaverse strategies to maximize the resilience of marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and develop strategies to mitigate and adapt to adverse impacts.
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Goal 6: Advance Resilient & Healthy Arctic Comm

Economies

NOAA’s current activities: NOAA has a to resilient communities and economies. Tgovernment lead for hydrographic surveys, National Spatial Reference System. NOAA administering the Coastal Zone Managemespills, NOAA is legally responsible for provU.S. Coast Guard and conducting natural rfollowing those incidents. In addition, peopand visit the Arctic rely on NOAA and the System to rescue them in an emergency. 

Environmental preparedness, resp

NOAA and the University of New HamResearch Center are partnering to expanResponse Management Application (ERor two key areas of concern in the ChukThe demonstration will show how the EArctic stakeholders, including coastal coNative villages, the State of Alaska, NOAand industry. ERMA is a web-based maassist both emergency responders and enmanagers who deal with incidents that mthe environment. The data within ERMmanagement decisions regarding hazardand restoration planning. ERMA includimension data components and, for thice conditions. Federal, State and Tribaable to use this information and the ERnot only oil spill planning and responseshoreline erosion information. 

Goal Statement - Resilient and healthy Arctic communities and economies through improved geospatial infrastructure, safe navigation, oil spill response readiness, and climate change adaption strategies.Importance: We measure the well-being of our Nation through the 

health of our communities and economies. The condition of the Arctic can be gauged by the health of the people living and working in this unique environment, and by the impact of increased economic activity on it. Indigenous people have long depended upon the unique characteristics of the Arctic for food, livelihoods, cultural heritage, and protection. However, climate change in the Arctic is altering the foundations of their communities and challenging indigenous ways of life. At the same time, the loss of sea ice creates opportunities for commercial enterprises such as oil and gas development, cruise and cargo shipping, fishing, and other economic sectors. This creates tension between the traditional and the new, and argues for a measured approach to Arctic resource utilization. As the ice barriers that protect Arctic coastal communities diminish, the State of Alaska and its people must make critical decisions based on threats from stronger storms, increasing erosion, thawing permafrost, changing animal migration patterns, and sea level changes. Shorter freeze periods and weak ice impact transportation and can result in loss of life. The potential economic effects of these changes in the Arctic are also enormous, as retreating sea ice opens access to economic development. Oil companies are investing in exploration, private interests are anticipating an open Arctic trade route, and pressure is increasing on our defense and security assets to maintain a presence in the region in a “response-ready state” because of the increased risks. 
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The Arctic is severely deficient in many of the capabilities that NOAA extends to the rest of the Nation. The region currently has virtually no geospatial infrastructure for accurate positioning and elevations; sparse tide, current, and water-level prediction coverage; obsolete shoreline and hydrographic data; poor nautical charts; insufficient weather and ice forecast coverage; inadequate oil spill response capacity; and poor understanding of baseline conditions for existing ecosystems. There are large gaps in the information that NOAA does have, illustrated by empty white space on nautical charts of the region and limited capabilities for modeling spills in ice conditions. Most Arctic waters that are charted were surveyed with obsolete technology, some dating back to the 1800s, before the region was part of the United States. Most of the shoreline along Alaska’s northern and western coasts has not been mapped since 1960, if ever, and confidence in the nautical charts of the region is extremely low.

Five-year strategy: NOAA can make the highest positive impact to 

Arctic communities and sustainable economic growth by providing products and services for safe navigation and security, oil spill response readiness, post-incident resource restoration efforts, and climate change adaptation strategies. The Arctic region needs accurate land and tidal elevations to build flood protections, harden infrastructure, ensure safe and efficient marine transportation, model storm surge, and monitor sea levels. Good weather and navigation tools, building the capacity to respond to spills when they occur, and research to improve Arctic spill response and restoration capabilities are essential. Arctic communities also need a reliable source for information on climate in Alaska to support decisions on moving communities and other adaptive strategies. By building on the capabilities noted in other strategic priorities such as marine weather, sea ice forecasts, and increased observing capacity, NOAA can act to support navigation safety, maritime security, and environmental protection from oil spills and other hazardous events. NOAA’s geospatial framework, products, and services will also provide the foundation for all other NOAA activities in the Arctic, including effective climate adaptation, community resilience, coastal resource, and marine spatial planning strategies in the region. 

Figure 7. Age and quality of NOAA nautical charts in Alaska. 

Figure 8. NOAA Arctic hydrographic survey priorities (2010 – 20
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Overhauling the Arctic Geospatial Framework of geodetic control and water levels will correct meters-level positioning errors an

measurements to support such critical needs as marine transportation, sea level rise monitoring, understanding of erosion to infrastructure, oil/gas resource exploration, and storm surge modeling. Delivering scientific support for Arctic pollution respo

plans, place-based drills and community workshops, and spill trajectory modeling to decision makers will help to reduce risprotected resources and ecosystems as commercial vessel traffic in and through the Arctic increases. Surveying and mapping A

accurate coastal maps and nautical charts will benefit navigation and national security, sea level change impact assessments(Figure 8). NOAA will work with partners to prioritize and survey likely shipping lanes in the North Bering and Chukchi communities. This effort will help address the Bering Strait chokepoint in particular, and reduce the risk of accidents and Arctic waters more broadly. Finally, by working with local, State and Federal health agencies such as the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium and tControl, NOAA will support coastal communities with adaptive strategies and planning tools and contribute to the understanding is affecting health and welfare. NOAA will assist Arctic communities on this issue by leading the development of a regionaThis climate center will serve as a one-stop shop for information on climate in Alaska. NOAA will also work with other agentities to implement coastal and marine spatial planning to improve the management and coordination of human activitiU.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. 
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Conclusion & Next StepsAs the Nation’s only Arctic state, Alaska and its communities are the first to be imObservations have shown that Alaska has warmed at over twice the rate of the resaverage annual temperatures in Alaska have increased by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit atemperatures have increased by 6.3 degrees. This means Alaska is already experiechanges in sea ice, wide-spread glacial retreat, and permafrost thawing. The Arctic is a particularly vulnerable system, which is prone to rapid change. It iglobal weather patterns. Initial predictions from global climate change models unwhich the Arctic would lose sea ice. This has led to an underestimate of global wglobal climate change and providing reliable predictions regarding changes in worrequire an improved understanding of the impacts of Arctic climate change. NOAA has diverse capabilities that can and should be brought to bear on the emeconomic, and national security issues in the Arctic. NOAA envisions an Arctic w

• Conservation, management, and use are based on sound science and supp

resilient communities and ecosystems; and 

• The global implications of Arctic change are understood and predicted. 

In support of this vision and in order to fulfill NOAA’s missions and responsibiliagencies to succeed in fulfilling their responsibilities, NOAA intends to undertakStep 1 – In the next five years, implement, through a NOAA five-year Arctic Acti

the six primary goals that are identified and described in this document in suppo

1) Accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are 

operations and ecosystem stewardship, 

2) Improved baseline observations and understanding of Arctic climate and 

uncertainty in assessing and predicting impacts caused by a changing Arct

3) Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society 

appropriately to weather-related routine and extreme events, 

4) National and international partners are engaged to promote cooperation 

observational platforms, and intellectual resources to enable more rapid a
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of NOAA’s Arctic science and ecosystem-based management goals, 

5) Conservation, management, and use of ocean and coastal resources are based on sound science and support health

ecosystems and communities, and

6) Resilient and viable Arctic communities and economies through improved geospatial infrastructure, safe navigation

and climate change adaption strategies.

Step 2 – In order to accomplish these goals, coordination across all NOAA Line and Staff Offices and collaboration with l

academic, and non-governmental organizational partnerships will be required.Step 3 – Develop an engagement strategy to reach internal and external employees, partners, and stakeholders. As a startinpoint of contact within NOAA Senior Executive Leadership that is accountable for implementation of this strategy.Step 4 – Include the formalization of a detailed budget strategy as part of the NOAA Arctic Action Plan. NOAA is commiinvolvement in research and management programs in the Arctic, and anticipates initial investment of $10 million towards strategic plan, recognizing that additional funds will be needed to achieve these goals. No single region better exemplifies the complex interdependence of communities and changing ecosystem conditions than and complexity of the cultural, societal, economic, and environmental impacts requires a concerted, systematic and rapid einternational to local levels. NOAA’s scientific capabilities can be deployed to increase understanding of climate and other to predict the ecosystem response to those trends, and to offer the technical expertise needed to develop policy options and mitigation and adaptation to the environmental challenges in the Arctic region. NOAA’s service capabilities are needed to needs for fishing, marine mammal protection, transportation, energy, infrastructure, and mineral exploration in the uniquThe choices we make today can have pivotal impacts on the future state of the Arctic.