AIR TRAFFIC

CONTROL

Role of FAA’s

Modernization Program

in Reducing Delays and

Congestion

Statement of Gerald L. Dillingham,

Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues

United States General Accounting Office

GAO Testimony

Before the Subcommittee on Aviation

Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,

U.S. Senate

For Release

on Delivery

Expected at

10 a.m. EDT

Thursday

May 10, 2001

GAO-01-725T
1

Madam Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:

We are pleased to be here today to discuss the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA)

modernization of the nation’s air traffic control (ATC) system and its relationship to the

initiatives under way to address the escalating crisis of insufficient capacity facing the

aviation industry. During the past two summers, major delays and congestion at our

nation’s airports have focused attention on the increasing gap between the demand for

and the capacity of the national airspace system (NAS). The NAS includes the airports,

other facilities, equipment, and people involved in providing air transportation services.

The ATC system is the major component of the NAS and primarily refers to the

equipment, technologies, and people responsible for keeping aircraft safely separated.

Reducing delays and congestion in the NAS is a major challenge because the causes as

well as the solutions are numerous and interconnected.

As policymakers assess potential options for increasing the capacity of the NAS, it is

important to understand FAA’s past efforts to modernize the ATC system and its ongoing

initiatives to deploy new technologies. Our testimony today, based largely on work that

we have done on FAA’s modernization over the past decade, will highlight (1) the extent

of the delay and congestion problems and the contribution of the ATC system to them,

(2) the progress and problems encountered in FAA’s ATC modernization program, and

(3) the importance of a continued focus on delivering ATC equipment and on human

capital issues as policymakers seek to address delays and congestion. In summary:

! The NAS is facing significant capacity problems. Last year, more than 1 out of every 4

flights nationwide was canceled, delayed, or diverted. These actions affected 163

million passengers, who, on average, were delayed almost an hour. Demand is still

growing; FAA forecasts nearly a 59-percent increase in passenger enplanements from

1999 to 2011. Inefficiencies in the ATC system contribute to the delays and

congestion. Other factors, such as an insufficient number of runways at some

airports and bad weather, aggravate these problems. Modernizing equipment, along

with other changes in the ATC system, is expected to help increase the capacity of
2

the NAS by between 5 and 15 percent. In addition to this effort, FAA and the aviation

industry have over 50 initiatives in various stages of implementation to address

delays and congestion.

! Twenty years ago, FAA anticipated significant increases in the nation’s air traffic and

embarked on an ambitious modernization program to help improve the efficiency of

the ATC system and expand the capacity of our nation’s airspace. Although air traffic

has greatly increased, the improvements expected from this modernization program

have fallen short. While FAA has installed new equipment to provide the necessary

platform for fielding modern technologies to improve efficiency, this effort has

experienced cost, schedule, and performance problems. As part of this program,

FAA has begun to deploy new technologies to achieve free flight, which will enable

pilots and controllers, under certain circumstances, to select optimal flight paths,

thereby lowering costs and helping to accommodate more flights in our nation’s

airspace. However, FAA faces challenges in implementing these technologies. These

include integrating the technologies with each other and other ATC systems to

achieve the synergies anticipated, as well as determining the impact of using the free

flight technologies on users, including controllers and technicians. Other major

modernization projects being developed to help increase the capacity of the NAS are

also experiencing cost, schedule, and performance problems.

! FAA and the aviation industry recognize the interdependence of the various

components of the NAS—the people, equipment, and procedures—and the need for

cooperation and coordination to effectively implement solutions. In the future, FAA’s

modernization program will continue to be an important part of the solution;

therefore, FAA needs to avoid repeating the past mistakes that have plagued its

program. Although FAA has taken steps to help ensure that it can deploy new

equipment and technologies as planned, it has yet to fully institute a performanceoriented culture, which is essential to establishing a climate of accountability and

coordination throughout the agency. The new chief operating officer, who will be

responsible for improving the delivery of air traffic services, should greatly help the
3

agency establish this climate. FAA and the aviation industry will also need to address

human capital issues related to the retirement, expected within the decade, of many

aviation industry professionals, such as FAA controllers and airline mechanics.

Background

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex collection of systems, procedures,

facilities, aircraft, and people. Because these components are interconnected and

interdependent, they must work together as one system to ensure safe operations. The

principal component of the NAS is the air traffic control (ATC) system—a vast network

of radars; automated data processing, navigation, and communications equipment; and

traffic control facilities.1

 Through this system, FAA provides such services as controlling

takeoffs and landings and managing the flow of traffic between airports.

Faced with a rapidly growing volume of air traffic and aging equipment to control it, FAA

initiated an ambitious program in 1981 to modernize its ATC system. Over the past two

decades, FAA’s modernization projects have experienced substantial cost overruns,

lengthy delays, and significant performance shortfalls. Because of the size, complexity,

cost, and problem-plagued past of FAA’s modernization program, we have designated it a

high-risk information technology investment since 1995.2

In 1998, in collaboration with the aviation industry, FAA revised its approach to NAS

modernization to move from its traditional system of air traffic control, with heavy

reliance on procedures, to a more collaborative system of air traffic management. FAA

 1

FAA uses three types of facilities to control traffic. Airport towers direct traffic on the ground, before

landing, and after takeoff within 5 nautical miles from the airport and about 3,000 feet above the airport.

Terminal radar approach control facilities sequence and separate aircraft as they approach and leave

airports, beginning about 5 nautical miles and ending about 50 nautical miles from the airport and

generally up to 10,000 feet above the ground. Air route traffic control centers, called en route centers,

control planes in transit and during approaches to some airports. The airspace that most en route centers

control extends above 18,000 feet for commercial aircraft.

2

FAA’s modernization program is one of four high-risk system development and modernization efforts. See

High-Risk Series: An Overview (GAO/HR-95-1, Feb. 1995), High-Risk Series: Information Management and

Technology (GAO/HR-97-9, Feb. 1997), High-Risk Series: An Update (GAO/HR-99-1, Jan. 1999), and HighRisk Series: An Update (GAO-01-253, Jan. 2001).
4

has begun testing some of the technologies—or tools--under this new environment,

known as free flight, which are intended to help improve safety and increase the

efficiency of the NAS. Despite some unresolved challenges, FAA has been moving

aggressively to complete the initial deployment of these technologies by 2002.

Measuring the capacity of the NAS and achieving its most efficient use are both difficult

challenges because they depend on a number of interrelated factors. The capacity of the

NAS is affected by such factors as the number and type of aircraft seeking access,

weather conditions, flight schedules, and airports’ infrastructure. Achieving the most

efficient use of the NAS is largely contingent on the procedures FAA uses to manage

traffic, how well its equipment performs, and the proficiency of the controllers to

efficiently use this equipment to manage traffic. Under the best of circumstances,

capacity usually meets the demands for service. But, as we have experienced all too

often, whenever any factors diminish capacity, congestion and delays result.

The National Airspace System Is Experiencing Significant Capacity Problems

The growing demand for air travel has fully taxed the capacity of the NAS, including the

ATC system. Airline passengers are experiencing increasing flight delays and

cancellations from the growing imbalance between their demands and the ability of the

NAS to handle air traffic. Last year, more than 1 out of every 4 flights nationwide was

canceled, delayed, or diverted. These actions affected 163 million passengers, who, on

average, were delayed almost an hour. FAA reported that 1.9 million passengers moved

through the system daily, and it forecasts a 59-percent increase in the number of

enplanements between 1999 and 2011. Delays and cancellations are also increasing. In

2000, which was the worst year on record, FAA reported a 90-percent increase in delays

and a 104-percent increase in cancellations compared with 5 years ago. The imbalance

between demand and capacity is most pronounced during peak flying periods at the

major airports through which major airlines route their flights, commonly referred to as

hub airports.
5

Inefficiencies in the ATC system, along with the lack of adequate airport infrastructure,

airline scheduling practices, and bad weather are among the many factors contributing to

delays and congestion. Some in the aviation industry have also attributed delays to

antiquated ATC equipment. They expect the use of modern equipment to vastly expand

the capacity of the NAS.

While acknowledging inefficiencies in the ATC system, particularly in moving traffic in

and out of the congested airspace around airports, FAA disagrees with the assertion that

aging equipment is to blame for delays. The agency maintains that in recent years, it has

replaced the majority of the equipment at many of its air traffic control facilities. While it

is true that much of the equipment, especially in the en route centers is modern, this

equipment was expected to be in place much earlier. As for the expectation that ATC

modernization will bring major gains in capacity, FAA estimates that new equipment,

coupled with changes in design and operating procedures for the airspace, will increase

the number of flights nationwide that can be handled safely between 5 and 15 percent.

FAA estimates that the biggest gain in capacity—between 50 and 55 percent—will come

from adding new runways. While gains attributable to modernization are not as great as

some may have expected, the agency nevertheless acknowledges that they are important

and that it must take action to achieve them.

In this regard, in April 2001, FAA announced a set of initiatives in its Operational

Evolution Plan, which is designed to increase capacity in the NAS. The agency, in

cooperation with the aviation industry, is planning improvements in designing airspace

and aircraft routes and deploying new technologies, among other actions, to permit more

efficient movements and eventually allow more aircraft to move safely in the NAS. This

plan complements the April 2001 benchmarks of capacity for the nation’s 31 busiest

airports. Since over 70 percent of the passengers move through these airports, the

benchmarks allow policymakers to target short- and long-term solutions at these

airports, thereby achieving the biggest increases in capacity. The aviation industry has

also taken steps to address the capacity crisis. For example, a few of the major airlines

have individually adjusted their flight schedules to even out peaks and have adjusted
6

flight times throughout their system to more accurately reflect gate-to-gate departure and

arrival times. Collectively, FAA and the aviation industry have over 50 initiatives to help

improve the capacity of the NAS in various stages of implementation. We are reviewing

the status of these initiatives and expect to report on them in the fall of 2001.

FAA Has Fielded Some New Equipment and Technologies, but Several Key

Efforts Still Face Problems

Over the past two decades, FAA has encountered numerous problems in its ambitious

ATC modernization program to acquire new facilities, replace old equipment, and

introduce new technologies. Although FAA replaced the hardware for the HOST

computer system3

 as scheduled in 1999 to preclude potential Year 2000 problems, many

major modernization projects are years behind schedule and cost more than anticipated.

Others have met with eventual success after FAA restructured them and modified their

requirements. More recently, FAA has taken a number of steps to overcome past

problems with its modernization efforts.

ATC Modernization Is an Ambitious Undertaking

ATC modernization, which was announced in 1981 as a 10-year, $12 billion program, has

expanded and is now expected to cost more than $44 billion through fiscal year 2005.4

 Of

this amount, the Congress appropriated over $32 billion for fiscal years 1982 through

2001. The agency expects that approximately $12 billion will be provided for fiscal years

2002 through 2005. See figure 1 for an illustration of how FAA’s appropriation was

divided among seven functional areas.

 3

HOST is the en route centers’ system for processing flight and radar data that is displayed on the

controllers’ workstations. 4

The total cost of modernization includes appropriations for all actual and projected facilities and

equipment from fiscal year 1982 through fiscal year 2005 for projects in FAA’s financial plan.
7

Figure 1: Air Traffic Control Modernization: Funding by Functional Areas, Fiscal Years 1982-2001

Dollars in billions

Navigation and landing

($2.5)

Weather

($1.7)

Automation

($7.5)

Mission support

($6.5)

9%

5%

8%

23%

Surveillance

($2.9)

Other

($2.5)

Communications

($3.4)

Facilities

($5.2)

8%

20%

16%

11%

Source: FAA.
8

Figure 2 illustrates how FAA’s appropriation was divided by project status—completed

projects, ongoing projects, canceled or restructured projects, and personnel-related

costs.

Figure 2: Air Traffic Control Modernization: Funding by Project Status, Fiscal Years 1982-2001

Dollars in billions

(Percentages may not add due to rounding.)

Personnel related costs

($2.5)

Canceled/restructured

projects

($2.8)

Completed projects

($14.7)

Ongoing projects

($12.1)

9%

7%

45%

38%

Source: FAA.

FAA Has Had Mixed Success in Deploying Key Automation Projects Essential to Free

Flight

A key part of FAA’s modernization program is replacing old equipment that processes

radar and other data and displays this information on controllers’ workstations. This
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new equipment forms a platform that is essential for FAA to deploy the new technologies

that automate many of the controllers’ functions. Eventually, the synergies of these

technologies will enable FAA to transition from air traffic control to air traffic

management, which will allow more aircraft to safely use the NAS. The agency estimates

that this new equipment and related technologies will help achieve an increase of

between 5 and 15 percent nationwide in the number of flights that can be safely handled

when coupled with changes in the design and operating procedures for the NAS.

After restructuring the Advanced Automation System—the centerpiece of its original

modernization program—and modifying its requirements, FAA deployed the Display

System Replacement (DSR) project to all 20 en route centers in 2000.5 However, another

project from the restructured centerpiece that will deploy similar equipment in terminal

facilities has encountered major cost, schedule, and performance problems. As a result,

while FAA has not established a new schedule to deploy this equipment—the Standard

Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS)—it has indicated that the project’s

development cost will increase by nearly $500 million over its original 1994 estimate of

$940 million.

To help mitigate problems with the modernization program, in 1998, FAA began a phased

approach, known as free flight and has begun to deploy some new technologies. FAA

has been demonstrating and measuring the operational effectiveness of five technologies

in phase 1 of free flight.6

 To date, the surface movement advisor and collaborative

decision making tools have been successfully completed. With regard to the remaining

three, demonstrations have shown that two of these—URET and TMA—have the

potential to provide benefits despite some technical challenges. Because the third tool—

 5

The Advance Automation System was designed to provide, among other things, new workstations for

controllers and related hardware and software. In 1994, FAA restructured the project after the estimated

cost had tripled, capabilities were shown to be significantly less than promised, and delays were expected

to run nearly a decade. DSR is the en route workstation that graphically displays, on the controller’s

screen, the flight plan and radar data processed by the HOST computer.

6

The five tools being demonstrated in phase 1 (1998-2002) are collaborative decision making, surface

movement advisor, passive final approach spacing tool (pFAST), traffic management advisor (TMA), and

user request evaluation tool (URET). Under phase 2 (2003-2005), FAA will deploy certain tools to other

locations.
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pFast—has encountered significant technical challenges and FAA is still developing

STARS—the infrastructure that provides the platform for this tool—the agency decided

not to extend deployment of this tool to additional facilities in phase 2.

In 1998, as FAA and industry were planning for the deployment of free flight

technologies, we found that FAA faced many challenges in implementing them.7

 Among

these challenges were the need for FAA to address outstanding issues related to

technology development and deployment, such as addressing the impact of

modernization on users, principally controllers, and integrating various technologies that

will be used under free flight operations with one another as well as with other ATC

systems. Our preliminary findings and those of others indicate that FAA still has not

fully addressed these and other challenges.

With respect to determining the impact of free flight tools on controllers, FAA has not

established a clear plan for conducting these assessments. We agree with FAA, NASA,

and air traffic controllers that using free flight tools will change the roles and

responsibilities of controllers—necessitating a major cultural change. For example,

using the TMA tool will require controllers to move from a common method of

separating traffic according to distance, which relies more on controllers’ judgment, to a

method using time, which is more dependent on automated technology. The traditional

method results in less efficient use of the airspace because controllers often add distance

between planes to increase the margin of safety. Under the newer method of separating

traffic, computers will help controllers balance the arrival flow into terminal airspace by

assigning a certain time for an aircraft to reach a predetermined point. FAA

acknowledges that transitioning to the new method will take time, but has yet to develop

a strategy, including detailed training, to help ensure its success.

To allow FAA and users to fully exploit the capabilities of free flight technologies and

achieve expected improvements in safety, capacity, and efficiency, FAA needs to

 

7

See National Airspace System: FAA Has Implemented Some Free Flight Initiatives, but Challenges

Remain (GAO/RCED-98-246, Sept. 28, 1998).
11

integrate the technologies with one another and with other major ATC systems. Free

flight technologies are expected to improve the efficiency of operations at high altitudes,

close to the terminal, and on the ground. While these technologies are generally

designed to operate independently of one another during phase 1, FAA plans to begin

integrating them during phase 2 to achieve their collective synergies. However, FAA still

needs to integrate URET with other major ATC systems, including FAA’s HOST, DSR,

and local communications networks. This integration is key to fully realizing increases

in controllers’ productivity. Compounding the complexity of integration, FAA has been

simultaneously upgrading the HOST and DSR software to increase their capabilities.

How well URET will work with these systems is unknown because FAA has yet to fully

test this tool with them. FAA has developed some of the software needed for integration

and has begun testing the URET software. By the end of August 2001, FAA expects to

complete full testing of URET software in conjunction with major ATC systems. Testing

may uncover the need for additional software modifications, which could increase costs

and could cause the agency to defer planned capabilities.

FAA Has Also Had Problems in Deploying Other Equipment and Technologies

FAA recognizes the importance of projects in three other functional areas—

communications, navigation and landing, and weather—to increase the capacity of the

NAS without compromising safety. After major delays, the agency has deployed

equipment in these areas. For example, FAA has replaced the voice system used by

controllers in the en route centers to communicate with other controllers and with

pilots. The agency has also installed a weather radar that alerts aircraft in the terminal

area of hazardous weather conditions, such as microbursts, gust fronts, and

precipitation. However, projects in these three areas, which have been under

development since the 1980s, have continued to experience numerous technical

problems.

In communications, FAA has been developing a way to transition from voice to data link

communications to keep pace with the demand for ATC services, improve controllers’
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productivity, and reduce errors in voice communications. The agency has not finalized

the cost for the data link project but estimates that it will be at least 2003 before it will

provide limited capability in this area. To improve navigation, FAA has been developing

a way to transition from a ground-based to a satellite-based navigation system using the

Department of Defense’s Global Positioning System. Originally, FAA intended to have

the initial system operational by 1997; now FAA estimates that this system will be

available by 2003, but with less capability. To reduce en route air traffic delays caused

by severe weather, FAA has been developing a system to consolidate weather data from

several sources and provide this information at a single, integrated workstation.

Although FAA had planned to complete a similar project by 1991, FAA now estimates

that it will complete the initial deployment of this project by the end of 2002.

Because of the critical link of the projects noted above to current and planned efforts to

safely expand the capacity of the NAS, future delays could have a negative impact on

these efforts. For example the Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast, a

technology that is intended to provide pilots with precise information about the location

of other aircraft in the NAS, depends on FAA’s satellite-based navigation system to

assure them that the position information they receive from satellites is accurate. This

satellite-based system also has the potential to help pilots and controllers prevent

accidents on the ground at airports. Continued delays in FAA’s satellite navigation

program could place deployment of important features of this new surveillance

technology in jeopardy.

A Continued Focus on ATC Modernization and Human Capital Issues Is

Important for the Aviation Community to Expand NAS Capacity

Because of the interconnection and interdependence of key components of the NAS,

assessing solutions to the capacity problem is complex. FAA and aviation industry

leaders recognize that most proposed solutions cannot be implemented in isolation and

therefore must be carefully coordinated to help ensure successful implementation as

well as mitigate the risks of potential unintended consequences. While not the sole
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solution to the delay and congestion problem, FAA’s modernization program is

nonetheless an important part of the solution. Its success affects future projects and the

deployment of new technologies to expand the capacity of the NAS. Furthermore, as

policymakers assess options, it is important to consider whether human capital needs,

such as succession planning, are being adequately addressed.

FAA Has Taken Steps to Address Modernization Problems, but Must Hold Individuals

Accountable and Ensure That They Coordinate Their Actions

Despite efforts to address its modernization problems, FAA still faces problems in

instituting an organizational culture that is accountable for outcomes and encourages

individuals to work together as coordinated teams to achieve them. Over the past couple

of years, FAA’s increased collaboration with the aviation industry and its phased

approach to modernization have been positive developments and have allowed FAA and

the industry to target specific problems and together develop initiatives to solve them.

However, according to our work and that of others, FAA has not fully instituted the

performance-oriented culture that is a key to the success of modernization and other

agencywide efforts.

The Congress and the aviation community have noted that FAA lacks accountability for

delivering key modernization projects. Recently, the FAA Administrator has taken steps

to assign specific accountability to individuals who head major offices and to develop

agreements to link these individuals’ performance to outcomes. Most likely, the

accountability and expectations for achieving outcomes will be pushed to managers at

lower levels within FAA to increase the likelihood that these employees will collaborate

as teams to achieve outcomes. Such action would be in contrast to the current situation

where major offices still tend to function in stovepipes that inhibit an integrated team

approach to developing and delivering systems. FAA has identified this integrated team

approach as key to the agency’s efforts to deploy systems that meet performance goals.
14

To increase accountability for delivering air traffic services, in 2000, the Congress

created the position of chief operating officer. 8 This individual will be responsible for

ATC modernization as well as other agencywide activities and services related to air

traffic. Subsequently, in December 2000, the administration directed FAA to establish a

performance-based organization that would encompass all of FAA’s functions related to

air traffic. FAA is in the process of establishing this organization, to be headed by the

chief operating officer. This increased attention to accountability, coupled with changes

under way in the performance management system to link pay to performance, are very

positive signs for FAA and should go a long way toward establishing a climate in which

individuals throughout the agency are held accountable for specific outcomes.

FAA and the Aviation Industry Will Need to Take Steps to Ensure an Adequate Supply of

Well-Trained Aviation Professionals

If steps are not taken now to plan for succession, the retirement of critical personnel

responsible for the safe and efficient operation of the NAS in the coming decade could

negatively affect the ability of FAA and others to meet future demands for air service.

Many of the controllers hired after the 1981 strike are approaching retirement eligibility.

While estimates of retirements vary, it is generally agreed that by 2010, at least 40

percent of the current controller workforce will be eligible to retire. The retirement of

large numbers of controllers in a relatively short time frame raises a number of issues.

For example, FAA will need to determine (1) how many controllers will be needed in the

future to control traffic, given increased demand and improved equipment; (2) how many

controllers will be leaving and when; and (3) the source to supply new controllers.

Addressing these issues cannot be deferred because hiring and training new controllers

to be fully proficient with the latest procedures and technologies takes a significant

amount of time. For example, at some of the busiest air traffic control facilities, it takes

up to 5 years for a new controller to go through the training process and become “fully

certified.” Therefore, to ensure that it maintains an adequately staffed, well-trained

controller workforce, FAA must plan well in advance for these retirements.

 8

Wendell H. Ford Aviation Investment and Reform Act for the 21st Century – P.L. 106-181, sec. 303.
15

Likewise, FAA and the airlines face similar challenges with maintenance technicians and

aircraft mechanics, respectively, who maintain equipment used throughout the NAS.

Given the critical responsibilities that these professionals fulfill, it is vital that FAA and

the industry address these challenges. GAO has reviews under way to address the

human capital issues surrounding succession planning for these aviation professionals.

_ _ _ _ _ _

FAA’s management of the key initiatives that it has underway, supported by industry

input, will be critical to safely expanding the capacity of the NAS. Continued

congressional oversight is also important to ensure that FAA meets the challenges

presented by the increasing demand for air travel.

Madam Chairman, this concludes my statement. We will be happy to answer any

questions from you or any Member of the Subcommittee.

Contacts and Acknowledgments

For future contacts regarding this testimony, please contact Gerald L. Dillingham at

(202) 512-2834. Individuals making key contributions to this testimony include Jeanine

Brady, Pete Maristch, Belva Martin, and John Noto.

(540000)
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