NASA/TM-2011-216148

Antarctica Meta-analysis:

Psychosocial Factors Related to Long-duration 

Isolation and Confinement

Camille Shea, PhD1

Kelley J. Slack, PhD2

Kathryn E. Keeton, PhD3

Lawrence A. Palinkas, PhD4

Lauren B. Leveton, PhD5

1Universities Space Research Association, Houston

2LZ Technology, Inc./Wyle, Houston

3Enterprise Advisory Services, Inc./Wyle, Houston

4University of Southern California, Los Angeles

5NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center

Houston, Texas 77058

June 2011
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NASA/TM-2011-216148

Antarctica Meta-analysis:

Psychosocial Factors Related to Long-duration 

Isolation and Confinement

Camille Shea, PhD1

Kelley J. Slack, PhD2

Kathryn E. Keeton, PhD3

Lawrence A. Palinkas, PhD4

Lauren B. Leveton, PhD5

1Universities Space Research Association, Houston

2LZ Technology, Inc./Wyle, Houston

3Enterprise Advisory Services, Inc./Wyle, Houston

4University of Southern California, Los Angeles

5NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center

Houston, Texas 77058

June 2011
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iii

Contents

Abstract..................................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1

Antarctica as a Space Analog ................................................................................................... 1

Documentation of psychological effects in Antarctica............................................................. 1

Purpose of the study.................................................................................................................. 2

Categorization of psychological effects experienced in Antarctica.......................................... 3

Psychological Symptoms........................................................................................................... 3

Syndromes................................................................................................................................. 3

Psychiatric Disorders ............................................................................................................... 3

Positive Effects.......................................................................................................................... 4

Outcomes of Psychological Effects........................................................................................... 4

Methodology............................................................................................................................. 5

Search Criteria.......................................................................................................................... 5

Current Status of Meta-analysis............................................................................................... 5

Selected References.................................................................................................................. 6
iv

Acronyms

ANARE Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions

BHP behavioral, health, and performance

DSM-IV Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition

ICE isolated, confined, and extreme

PANAS Positive Affect Negative Affect Schedule

POMS Profile of Mood States

REM rapid eye movement

16PF Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire

SSAD subsyndromal seasonal affective disorder
1

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine the psychological effects of wintering-over in 

Antarctica. We considered the feasibility of a meta-analysis for combining the results of relevant empirical studies in this area. As an ICE [isolated, confined, and extreme] environment, 

Antarctica provides invaluable opportunities to experience stressors more common to spaceflight 

than to the average person’s everyday life. The increased prevalence of psychological symptoms, 

syndromes, and psychiatric disorders, as well as positive salutogenic effects, were expected to be 

associated with various demographic and environmental factors. The great disparity between 

experimental design, statistical methodology, and reporting details led to the conclusion that a 

traditional meta-analysis was not feasible. Possible forward work considerations include a 

systematic literature review, a re-analysis of the data (for certain individual measures) using 

modern longitudinal techniques, an alternative meta-analysis method (for certain individual 

measures), and/or a qualitative literature review. NASA’s BHP [behavioral, health, and 

performance] Element is planning to conduct the systematic review in FY10.

Introduction

NASA is committed to longer-duration spaceflight, including astronauts returning to the moon

and crewed flights to Mars. All of this requires a deeper understanding of the impact extended 

missions pose for astronauts. A primary concern is the effect that extended periods of isolation 

will have on astronauts’ psychological well-being. Predicting the psychological impact of longerduration missions must include a consideration of space environment factors, which will likely

intensify feelings of isolation. These factors include: longer periods away from family and friends,

absence of earthly conveniences and daily routines, as well as time spent confined in the spacecraft due to living in a potentially dangerous environment. Evidence gathered in space analogs 

such as the Antarctic provides insight into psychological issues that might arise during such 

longer-duration missions.

Antarctica as a Space Analog

The Antarctic is physically remote from the rest of the world, and during winter months it is 

further isolated since the weather precludes travel to and from the continent. Additionally, 24-

hour periods of darkness prevent travel on the continent. It is the coldest, windiest, and highest of 

Earth’s continents; therefore, outdoor excursions are limited even when there is daylight. Living 

and working space also provides relatively small and limited areas in which to live and work.

These attributes define the Antarctic as an isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) environment, 

thereby making it an important analog for spaceflight because long-duration missions will 

inherently present similar challenges.

Documentation of psychological effects in Antarctica

Psychological effects of Antarctic expeditions have been well documented from anecdotal 

accounts recounted by the earliest explorers. Frederick Cook, the physician of the multinational

crew aboard the Belgica, described the psychological state of his crew as follows: “The curtain 
2

of blackness which has fallen over the outer world of icy desolation has descended upon the inner world of our souls. Around the tables, in the laboratory, and in the forecastle, men are sitting 

about sad and dejected, lost in dreams of melancholy from which, now and then, one arouses

with an empty attempt at enthusiasm” (Cook, 1909). Men from Sir Ernest Shackleton’s Imperial 

Trans-Antarctic Expedition of 1914–1917 were stranded on Elephant Island after their ship, the 

Endurance, was destroyed after it was trapped in ice in the Weddell Sea. The carpenter for the 

Expedition, Harry McNeish, wrote of being on the island saying, “I don’t think there are ever 

many fine days on this forlorn island... I don’t think there will be many survivors if they have to 

put in a winter here” (American Museum of Natural History, 2001).

It was not until the late 1950s and 1960s, however, that these psychological effects were 

documented for research purposes by investigators such as Gunderson, Taylor, and Rivolier

(Gunderson and Nelson, 1962; Taylor, 1969; Rivolier, 1963). Although research needs began to

be addressed by collecting data relating to psychological well-being, the findings from these initial research efforts seem only to raise more questions than answers. Often, data were inconsistently

collected and analyzed and research methodologies were not reliably administered. Additionally, 

due to the specific samples used, it is difficult to generalize results across population groups. In

more recent research, an effort has been made to systematically examine psychological effects on 

well-being. For example, Suedfeld et al. (1992) looked at emotional stability and Mocellin, et al.

(1991) examined anxiety in polar environments. Nonetheless, even at the present time, a complete

understanding of how (and to what extent) the characteristics of ICE environments impact psychological well-being remains unknown. As Palinkas and Suedfeld (2007) note, “Apart from 

anecdotal reports of polar madness and cabin fever, little is known about the psychological 

demands people face on polar expeditions ...”

Purpose of the study

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects that wintering-over in Antarctica has on 

psychological well-being, and to relate the findings to longer-duration spaceflight. The aim was 

to employ meta-analytic techniques to synthesize existing empirical research, thus affording a more

complete understanding of the data than can be provided by one study alone in an effort to apply 

these findings to astronauts on long-duration missions. The study is addressed by the Behavioral 

Health and Performance (BHP) Element within NASA’s Human Research Program. Specifically,

this study addresses the Risk of Behavioral and Psychiatric Conditions; Gap 6: What psychosocial characteristics predict success in an ICE environment?

The hypotheses initially developed for this study were generated based on the authors’ intent 

to account for factors that are directly relevant to spaceflight dynamics (eg, duration of mission, 

individual selection, harshness of climate, etc.). These hypotheses are supported by the literature 

summarized below as well as by a Lancet article by Palinkas and Suedfeld (2007) in which the

authors discussed many of the psychological effects experienced on polar expeditions. Although 

data limitations in this study prevented hypothesis testing, these hypotheses are provided for

background information, as they were foundational to the initial project.
3

Categorization of psychological effects experienced in Antarctica

Psychological Symptoms

Most of the literature gathered for this study addresses psychological symptoms experienced 

in the Antarctic. Somatic symptoms such as fatigue, headaches, and weight gain are often listed. 

Disturbed sleep – including phenomena such as difficulty falling or staying asleep, loss of slowwave sleep, loss of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep were common problems (Polosatov, 1973; 

Usui et al., 2000). Expeditioners have also experienced impaired cognition such as: reduced accuracy and short-term memory, increased response time for cognitive tasks and spontaneous

fugue states; the latter of which has often been referred to as “the Antarctic stare” (Reed et al., 

2001; Sandal, Leon, and Palinkas, 2006) or, more recently, as “toast” (Cravalho, 1996). Other 

symptoms reported include depressed mood, anger and irritability, and anxiety. Interpersonal 

tension and conflict toward both group members and non-group members (ie, replacement 

personnel and support personnel located elsewhere) was reported in much of the literature

(Lugg, 1987; Palinkas and Suedfeld, 2007).

Syndromes

Psychological effects experienced on polar expeditions may also be categorized as syndromes;

these are often cited within this body of literature. Three syndromes experienced by persons

living in the Antarctic are winter-over syndrome, polar T3 syndrome, and subsyndromal seasonal

affective disorder (SSAD). Winter-over syndrome consists of impaired cognitive functioning, disturbed sleep, interpersonal tension and conflict, and negative affect. However, this syndrome is 

not usually severe enough to warrant a DSM-IV [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental 

Disorders, Fourth Edition] diagnosis. The term “third quarter effect” is often used because the 

symptoms associated with the winter-over syndrome appear to peak in the third quarter of the 

mission. Polar T3 syndrome occurs when long-term exposure to cold temperatures produces

changes in thyroid functioning with effects similar to those seen in hypothyroidism (eg, mood 

disturbances and reductions in cognitive performance). Complaints include fatigue, memory 

problems, weight gain, dulled thinking, lethargy, and depression. Finally, SSAD is related to

variations in the amount of daylight, and is associated with depressive symptoms.

Psychiatric Disorders

The literature also discusses psychiatrics disorders as another type of psychological effect that

expeditioners may experience while in the Antarctic. The most common psychiatric disorders 

reported in the literature that are severe enough to warrant DSM-IV diagnoses include: mood,

personality, substance-related, sleep, and adjustment disorders. The incidence rates of all the

diagnoses revealed that 5.2% of people wintering-over in Antarctica met criteria for at least one 

DSM-IV diagnosis (Palinkas et al., 2004). The rate of mental disorders, including depression, was

4.5% according to ANARE [Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions] and 6.4% at

McMurdo Station (Otto, 2007). Based on 12 years of South Pole data, the overall incidence rate 

for depression that required pharmacological intervention was 2.03% (Otto, 2007). These rates 

reflect vulnerability to the stress associated with long-duration isolation and confinement in a 

harsh environment, combined with limitations in screening procedures designed to select-out 

individuals with such vulnerabilities.
4

Positive Effects

To depict polar service accurately, it is important to evaluate both positive and negative reactions that expeditioners may experience. Research has been primarily focused on the negative

challenges in ICE environments. However, not all effects experienced are negative and, in fact, 

anecdotal evidence – including diaries, journal entries, and autobiographies – demonstrate salutogenic effects (Palinkas and Suedfeld, 2007). Salutogenic effects enhance rather than challenge 

psychological well-being. These inherently enjoyable aspects in the Antarctic environment include:

success in overcoming the challenges inherent in the situation, in-group solidarity, cohesiveness, 

shared values, hardiness, resiliency, and coping. Results from one Antarctic survey suggest that 

positive reactions were experienced more often than negative ones, although the range of 

negative reactions reported was broader (Wood et al., 2000).

Outcomes of Psychological Effects

In addition to examining the psychological effects experienced by participants in the Antarctic,

reviewed studies also included important behavioral outcomes resulting from the changes experienced in the individual’s psychological well-being. In particular, evidence suggests that gender 

and military differences as well as an individual’s prior experience in a polar environment and

the size of the expedition crew may all relate to the psychological symptoms that are experienced 

(Gunderson, 1970; Gunderson, 1962). Results also suggest that selection screening, duration, station accessibility, and station latitude are all also related to psychological effects (; Suedfeld 

and Palinkas, 2007).

Based on this evidence as well as the review by Palinkas and Suedfeld (2007), the following 

hypotheses were formulated:

Hypothesis 1: Incidence of negative psychological symptoms is positively associated with 

the duration of residence in Antarctica, third quarter of Antarctic residence, and station latitude. 

Negative psychological symptoms are higher in women and military personnel. Negative psychological symptoms are negatively associated with size of crew, station accessibility, and prior 

experience.

Hypothesis 2: Incidence of negative syndromes is positively associated with duration of 

residence in Antarctica and station latitude and negatively associated with screening processes 

for selection.

Hypothesis 3: Incidence of psychiatric disorders is positively associated with duration of 

residence in Antarctica and station latitude. Psychiatric disorders are higher in women and

military personnel. These psychiatric disorders are negatively associated with station accessibility,

selection process, and prior experience.

Hypothesis 4: Incidence of salutogenic effects is positively associated with station accessibility 

and severity of station environment.
5

Methodology

Search Criteria

The authors of this project first attempted to identify and obtain all published and unpublished 

empirical studies of the psychological effects of Antarctic stays. This search effort resulted in a 

collection of 516 articles, books, presentations, and papers on psychological effects of Antarctic 

missions ranging from 1959 through 2007. Of these, 362 articles contained numerical data and

were, therefore, chosen for inclusion. Qualifying data constituted any reported numerical findings

(ie, means, standard deviations, numerical tables of results, etc.) applicable for a quantitative metaanalysis. Search terms used for the database were: Antarctica, polar, and winter-over. The search 

locations included: PsycInfo, Medline, and other similar search engines. Prominent researchers

in the field were contacted, and the following databases held by countries involved in Antarctic 

research were explored: Australian Antarctic Division, British Antarctic Survey, New Zealand 

Antarctic Bibliography, Antarctic Bibliography, and the U.S. Defense Technical Information 

Center.

Current Status of Meta-analysis

Statisticians1 evaluated the feasibility of traditional meta-analysis (the measures most frequently

used within the 362 articles were chosen: 16PF [Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire], POMS

[Profile of Mood States], and PANAS [Positive Affect Negative Affect Schedule]) after completing coding, which involved identifying and coding the relevant data found in each study.

Based on this evaluation, a traditional meta-analysis was not feasible due to inconsistent measurement of data and a lack of critical information reported in research articles. Although a large

number of articles were identified, there was little consistency across the articles; it was thus impossible to generalize across subjects. Differences in the data reported, measures used, and

methodological rigor of the studies all contributed to an inability to perform a meta-analysis.

Alternative methodologies to the traditional meta-analysis are being considered for forward 

work. One possibility is a quantitative literature review. Although the data in these studies do 

not lend themselves to the stringent requirements of the meta-analysis methodology, a less-formal

version of a quantitative literature review remains a possibility. This less-rigorous quantitative 

literature review would use descriptive statistics (eg, percentile and frequency) to summarize 

research findings.

Similarly, a qualitative review, which would incorporate the qualitative articles that were 

originally removed from consideration for the traditional meta-analysis, remains a possibility. 

Alternatively, a modern longitudinal technique could be conducted whereby the data for the

POMS would be re-analyzed. This methodology might be possible if sufficient raw data is obtained from researchers for each measure considered. To this end, discussions are under way

with prolific Antarctic researcher(s); if obtained, these data will be reanalyzed in an effort to 

establish meaningful statistical inferences.

A third alternative is a systematic review and comparison to evaluate both process and content. 

The content might be evaluated using techniques that attempt to quantify qualitative assessments, 

 1

Alan H. Feiveson, PhD, NASA-Johnson Space Center; Robert Ploutz-Snyder, PhD, USRA [Universities Space 

Research Association].
6

such as Delphi Technique or Concept Mapping. However, this cannot be approached without 

caution due to the fact that reported data may contain heterogeneous subsamples.

Without discounting the qualitative review and modern longitudinal technique methodology,

NASA’s BHP Element is currently planning to conduct the systematic review in fiscal year

2010, which will necessitate an effort to update the literature review subsequent to 2007. This 

particular methodology was chosen as forward work because it will take into account all of the 

literature gathered in the database as opposed to furthering examination of a limited number of 

studies or one particular measure. Additionally, this systematic review is planned to begin after 

completion of two other NASA literature reviews related to the same risk of behavioral and psychiatric conditions. It is believed that these other literature reviews may assist in informing the 

risk and aid in focusing the subsequent planned systematic review.

Selected References

American Museum of Natural History (2001). Shackleton’s Legendary Antarctic Journey: The 

Great Boat Journey. Retrieved on 20 January 2008.

Cook FA. (1909). Through the first Antarctic night 1898-1899. New York: Doubleday, Page & 

Co., reprinted in 1998 Pittsburgh, PA: Polar Publishing Company.

Cravalho MA. (1996). Toast on ice: the ethnopsychology of the winter-over experience in 

Antarctica. Ethos. 24:628-656.

Gunderson EKE. (1962). Personal history characteristics of Antarctic volunteers. U.S. Navy 

Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit Rept. No. 62-10, 13 pp.

Gunderson EKE. (1970). Individual behavior in confined or isolated groups. U.S. Navy Medical 

Neuropsychiatric Research Unit. Report, NMRU-70-41, 20 pp.

Gunderson EKE, Nelson PD. (1962). Attitude changes in small groups under prolonged 

isolation, U.S. Navy Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit. Report, No.62-2, 21 pp.

Lugg DJ. (1987). ANARE psychological studies. 1986-87 Australian Antarctic research 

program: Initial field reports, compiled by the Antarctic Division, pp..52-54. Publisher: 

[Kingston, Tasmania, Australia]

Mocellin JS, Suedfeld P, Bernadelz J P, Barbarito ME. (1991). Levels of anxiety in polar 

environments. J Environ Psychol. 11(3):265-275.

Otto CA. (2007). South Pole Station: An analogue for human performance during long duration 

missions to isolated and confined environments. White paper; to be published.

Palinkas LA, Glogower F, Dembert M, Hansen K, Smullen R. (2004). Incidence of psychiatric 

disorders after extended residence in Antarctica. International Journal of Circumpolar 

Health. 63(2):157-168.

Palinkas LA, Suedfeld P. (2007). Psychological effects of polar expeditions. The Lancet. 369:1-

11.

Polosatov MV. (1973). Effect of extreme conditions in Antarctica on the sleep of polar explorers. 

Sovetskaia antarkticheskaia ekspeditsiia, 1955-. Information bulletin, 8(8), pp.459-463.
7

Reed HL, Reedy KR, Palinkas LA, et al. (2001). Impairment in cognitive and exercise 

performance during prolonged Antarctic residence: effect of thyroxine supplementation on 

the polar triiodothyronine syndrome. J Clin Endocrinol Metabol. 86(1):110-116.

Rivolier J. (1963). E.G.I.G. Rations Symposium on Antarctic Logistics (1962). Natl. Acad. Sci.-

Natl. Res. Council, pp. 543-573.

Sandal GM, Leon GR, Palinkas LA. (2006). Human challenges in polar and space environments. 

Rev Environ Sci Biotechnol. 5:281-296.

Suedfeld P, Palinkas LA, Steel GD. (1992). Psychological aspects of polar living. Antarct J Unit 

States. 27(5):327.

Taylor AJW. (1969). Ability, stability and social adjustment among Scott Base personnel, 

Antarctica. J Occup Psychol. 43(2):81-93.

Usui A, Obinata I, Ishizuka Y, Okado T, Fukuzawa H, Kanba S. (2000). Seasonal changes in 

human sleep-wake rhythm in Antarctica and Japan. Psychiatr Clin Neurosci. 54(3):361-362.

Wood J, Hysong SJ, Lugg DJ, Harm DL. (2000). Is it really so bad? A comparison of positive 

and negative experiences in Antarctic winter stations. Environ Behav. 32:84-110.
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Antarctica Meta-analysis: Psychosocial Factors Related to Long-duration Isolation and 

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Camille Shea, PhD*, Kelley J. Slack, PhD†, Kathryn E. Keeton, PhD**, Lawrence A. 

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13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)

The purpose of this study was to examine the psychological effects of wintering-over in Antarctica. We considered the feasibility of a 

meta-analysis for combining the results of relevant empirical studies in this area. As an ICE [isolated, confined, and extreme] 

environment, Antarctica provides invaluable opportunities to experience stressors more common to space flight than to the average 

person’s everyday life. The increased prevalence of psychological symptoms, syndromes, and psychiatric disorders, as well as positive 

salutogenic effects, were expected to be associated with various demographic and environmental factors. The great disparity between 

experimental design, statistical methodology, and reporting details led to the conclusion that a traditional meta-analysis was not 

feasible. Possible forward work considerations include a systematic literature review, a reanalysis of the data (for certain individual 

measures) using modern longitudinal techniques, an alternative meta-analysis method (for certain individual measures), and/or a 

qualitative literature review. NASA’s BHP [behavioral, health, and performance] Element is planning to conduct the systematic

review in fiscal year 2010.

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