# RFS-2, Crop Yields,

and Land Use 

# Change 18 September, 2009 Beth Calabotta Martha Schlicher Monsanto Company

# The process of yield prediction is straightforward

• Gather crop yield data from a known database. • Fit a linear trend line through the data • Project into the future • Use statistics to understand range of potential future values of yield

2 y = 0.1234x - 238.32 R2 = 0.6805 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield, MT / Ha 

## U.S. Corn Yield Trend

And will work well provided there are NO major shifts in technology

# There is evidence the underlying yield assumptions in RFS-2 

# need to be updated Corn Soy

3 

# Cane 

# Wheat

# The rate of corn yield gain is increasing

Consecutive Periods Being Compared Difference SE p-value Double cross - Open pollinated 0.9901 0.1349 <0.0001 Single cross - Double cross 0.7991 0.1639 <0.0001 Biotech GMO - Single cross 0.8767 0.4163 0.0371 Source: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 -543 

### Rate of yield gain is increasing5



## Increased rate of gain with marker assisted breeding

Eathington et al (2007) Crop Sci Trait efficacy

# pops 79 97 72 248 

# Marker assisted breeding has doubled breeding rate of gain

Marker assisted breeding has doubled the rate of gain in breeding, with the

1 st 

## products are just beginning to come on the market6 

# Breeding traits protect against insect and weed pressure

and deliver increased yields

P < 0.0001 N = 656 P < 0.0001 N = 875 Yield (bu/ac) 

### Increase in yield due to protective traits 12 bu/ac 

### Yields of Dekalb RM110 hybrids released from 2001 - 2006 Yield (bu/ac) 

### 16 bu/ac

2005 2006

# Farmers have readily adopted new technologies

7



### Percentage of hybrid corn

Source: Science: 132:275-280 Source: USDA 

### Percentage of biotech corn

# Consistent underestimation of US corn yields is further



# evidence there have been changes in yield

# The United States is the world’s most efficient corn producer

9 

### Corn Soybeans

### Economics of hybrid adoption have been studied for many years

Griliches Z (1957) Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of technological change. J Econometric Soc. 25:501 

# About 50 million ac of open pollinated varieties (OPV) of maize are grown each year Country OPV area OPV area

(million ac) (% total corn) Mexico 11.16 71% Brazil 10.58 27% India 9.46 54% Romania 3.95 55% 

### Tanzania 3.29 95% Malawi 2.90 84% Russia Fed. 2.47 45% Philippines 2.22 41% Indonesia 1.78 20% 

### Kenya 1.33 36%

# Rapid yield gains are possible within a short period of time

11 USA Mexico Sinaloa Gto Jalisco Start 1.61 0.64 2.48 4.01 2.61 Actual 8.91 2.65 9.22 7.23 4.90 Period 77 77 23 23 23 Yield Inc % 2.2% 1.9% 5.9% 2.6% 2.8%

# Tropical corn has increased pest and disease pressure ...

12 Diatraea saccharalis Photo: Negri Helicoverpa zea Spodoptera frugiperda

male female Potential Damage – 40% Potential Damage – 8% Potential Damage – 21% Supression Supression Control Photo: Negri Photo: Negri

# Biotech traits have only recently been approved in Brazil

• Six traits approved since 2007. 

# • Currently in early phase of adoption curve 

# . • Heavy disease and pest pressure highlight value of traits.
13 

### Conventional Yieldguard 

### Area of high spodoptera pressure14 INDIA NIGERIA INDONESIA ETIOPIA PHILLIPINES CHINA ARGENTINA FRANCE ITALy Source: Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 - 543, USDA and FAO

RSA MEXICO BRASIL UKRAINE 

# Significant opportunities exist ex- US to increase rate of yield gain

U.S. Argentina

# Brazilian corn yield predictions also show conservative bias

# On a percentage basis, yields are improving faster globally

than in the United States

16 

### Corn Soybeans

### One standard Error was calculated based upon historic (1997-2009)

FAPRI land use estimation accuracies 

# Historically, accuracy of U.S. corn land use predictions 15 

# years in the future represent 14.7 billion gallons of

ethanol

## Sixty percent of a crop acre taken for ethanol is used as animal feed; this excludes any stover value

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Gross Corn to Ethanol

(A) Corn from DDGS (A) Soy from DDGS (A) Net Corn Reqd. (A) 

## 2022 US Crop Acres Required for 15 BGY

Corn Ethanol



## Resulting in the highest ethanol yield per net acre of any crop 

## 1102 gallons ethanol/net acre

EPA RFS2 2022 crop yield data; 2.71 gal ethanol/bushel of corn; Shurson coproduct ratios M Acres

# Stover utilization could further reduce the need for

incremental bioenergy acres
Only 1/3 of the 

## production acre is used for ethanol

Assumes 1 ton of biomass taken from EPA projected corn on corn acres in 2022 M Acres

0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Gross Corn to Ethanol (A) Corn from

DDGS (A) Soy from

DDGS (A) Switchgrass A

Not Reqd Net Acres

Reqd23 

# Biofuels must be considered in the context of expansion to

meet food and feed demand

15 billion gal of U.S. corn ethanol per year utilizes 0.5% of

global crop acres

# Summary • Yield projections need to be updated and should take into account uncertainty associated with projections. • There is statistical evidence that there is a shift in the rate of increase for yield trend lines. This shift is due to changes in technology. Forward looking yield projections should reflect higher rates of gain. 

# • Global yields also need to be updated to reflect technology adoption. • Biofuel net acreage needs to accurately reflect co- product 

# displacement. • Error propagation needs to be included to understand the accuracy of land use prediction. 

# • Land use change attributed to biofuels should be looked at in the context of food production for a growing population. 24

# 5000 years of plant breeding delivered substantial yield gains26



# United States Corn yields will reach 300 bu/ac Future yield potential based on Monsanto estimates – Marker assisted breeding has doubled breeding gain

– Current biotech traits protect genetic potential

– Next generation biotech traits will further protect and increase yield potentials

26



### Drought Nitrogen Yield



## Broad -acre yield family of traits

# 2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers Visual Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions

Discovery Phase 1 Proof of Concept Phase 2 Early Development Phase 3 Adv. Development Phase 4 Pre- Launch Launch 

### DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN COLLABORATION WITH

CONTROL HYBRID (76 BU/AC) WITH GENE (94 BU/AC) SUPERIOR, NE FIELD TRIALS – 2007 2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT 

## Water stress exposure during different stages of 

## development can have significant effect on corn yield. Monsanto’s lead drought-tolerance trait shows a significant yield advantage compared with controls under drought stress.

# In Continued Field Testing, Nitrogen Use Efficiency Leads Show Yield Improvement Under Normal Nitrogen

Discovery Phase 1 Proof of Concept Phase 2 Early Development Phase 3 Adv. Development Phase 4 Pre- Launch Launch 

### NITROGEN - UTILIZATION CORN FAMILY: Lead Project COLLABORATION WITH • Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently, exploring potential to boost yield under normal nitrogen conditions or stabilize it in low nitrogen environments • Under normal nitrogen conditions, lead trait has demonstrated yield advantages in multiple backgrounds over multiple years Yield Increase ( bu /A)

TRIALS IN MULTIPLE HYBRID BACKGROUNDS

(16 LOC)
Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested. Same bar color in different tests and different years indicates same hybrid was used. All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.

2006 YIELD TRIALS: SUFFICIENT N LEVELS (37 LOC TOTAL) 

### 2007 2007 YIELD TRIALS: SUFFICIENT N LEVELS (20 LOC TOTAL) Statistically significant @ p≤0.10 

# * -2 TRIALS IN MULTIPLE HYBRID BACKGROUNDS

(15 LOC) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 

# * 

# * * * * *

2005 

# *

2005 YIELD TRIALS: (23 LOC TOTAL) LEAD PERFORMANCE UNDER NORMAL NITROGEN CONDITIONS



### 2006

# Yield improvement of corn vs. other crops How did this happen?
• Breeding, biotech and agronomics • Excellent genetics – diploid, large diversity pool, extensive improvements over wild varieties 

### U.S. AVERAGE CROP YIELDS (1866– 2006) Corn

SOURCE: USDA, NASS Sorghum Barley Wheat Soybean Oats Rye Cotton Yield (tonnes/ha)21000 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Yield (bu/a)



## Population (stalks/a)

1982

1983 1984 1985

1986 1987

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1996 - 2007 1982 - 1995 

### Conventional

Biotech Era 

# Yield Gains With Plant Population Increases

# Improvements in Agronomic Practices Will Continue to Positively Impact Yield BREEDING AND BIOTECH ARE CRITICAL, BUT SO ARE OTHER CONTRIBUTORS

IMPROVEMENTS IN AG PRACTICES HAVE CONTRIBUTED ABOUT 40% TO YIELD GAINS 

## AGRONOMIC PRACTICE BENEFIT Fungicides Using Headline in an acre of corn can bring a 10 to 13.5 Bu/A benefit to the grower. 

## Plant Populations More strategic planting densities can increase bushels per acre, even with today’s traits and genetics. 

## Precision Agriculture More precise use of every acre – from GPS-guided tractors to GIS to yield mapping – allows growers to maximize use of inputs and land to get the best 

### return on investment. 

## Seed Treatments New treatments to be commercialized with the launch of SmartStax should add an incremental yield benefit. TWIN ROW PLANTING IS RELATIVELY NEW TECHNOLOGY THAT IS A WAY TO INCREASE YIELDS

# SmartStaxTM Brand Creates Platform that Revolutionizes Traits Game With Superior Performance in One Package

Discovery Phase 1 Proof of Concept Phase 2 Early Development Phase 3 Adv. Development Phase 4 Pre- Launch Launch First- Ever 8 -Trait Stack Being Developed to Create New Value and Opportunity for Farmers ABOVE-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION
BELOW-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION
WEED CONTROL SYSTEM 

## Durability • Combining multiple traits in single seed helps ensure sustainable insect protection and weed control year after year: • Combined modes-of-action for insect protection • Combined herbicide tolerant traits 

## Performance • Research is demonstrating that complementary trait platforms offer superior, season - long performance, notably: • Enhanced control of broader spectrum of insects • Comprehensive protection against established, emerging secondary pests • Industry’s best weed control system SmartStax is not registered by the U.S. EPA. It is a violation of federal law to promote or sell an unregistered pesticide.0

50 100 150 200

1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 Yield (bu/ac)
O pen Pollinated Era (b = 0) 

# Mass selection in OP’s was not effective for yield

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 - 543 

## U.S. Average Corn Yields0

50 100 150 200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 Yield (bu/ac)
O pen Pollinated Era (b = 0) Double Cross Era (b = 1.0) 

# Organized plant breeding enabled yield gains

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 - 543 

## U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE CROSS COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG TECHNOLOGIESCourtesy University of California, UC Libraries



# Hybrid corn enabled mechanized agriculture0

50 100 150 200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 Yield (bu/ac)
O pen Pollinated Era (b = 0) Double Cross Era (b = 1.0) S ingle C ross Era

(b = 1.8) 

# Impact of breeding and production technology

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 - 543 

## U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE CROSS SINGLE CROSS
COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG TECHNOLOGIES

# Corn yields continue to climb



# without increasing total inputs

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528 - 543 

## U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE CROSS SINGLE CROSS BIOTECH

0 50 100 150 200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 Yield (bu/ac)

COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG TECHNOLOGIES Open Pollinated Era (b = 0) Double Cross Era (b = 1.0) Single Cross Era

(b = 1.8)

# The Combination of Breeding, Agronomic Practice

Improvements and Biotech Can Maximize Yield Gains AVERAGE CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES

GERMPLAMS & CURRENT TRAITS BIOTECH BREEDING AG PRACTICE IMPROVEMENTS BUSHELS PER ACRE 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300

### Economics of hybrid adoption have been studied for many years

Griliches Z (1957) Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of technological change. J Econometric Soc. 25:501 About 50 million ac of open pollinated varieties (OPV) of maize are grown each year Country OPV area OPV area

(million ac) (% total corn) Mexico 11.16 71% Brazil 10.58 27% India 9.46 54% Romania 3.95 55% 

### Tanzania 3.29 95% Malawi 2.90 84% Russia Fed. 2.47 45% Philippines 2.22 41% Indonesia 1.78 20% 

### Kenya 1.33 36%

# The Bottom Lines The rate of gain of crop yields are driven in large part by breeding technologies. The rates of yield gain has been increasing due 

# to molecular breeding and biotechnology. Biotech traits are available and essential to control many of the major insect pests Outside of the U.S., there is significant opportunity for crop yield improvement

# 2009 vs. 2015

(with yield and production improvements)


# •2009 =15.2m acres = 10.5B gal. Ethanol •2015 =18.3m acres = 15.0B gal. Ethanol • DDGS per acre offsets 

# • 1/3 ac. for beef production • 1/2 ac. for pork production

# 2009 vs. 2015

(with yield and production improvements)

10.5 billion gal 15 billion gal Net Land required 

### 15.2 M acres Net Land required 18.3 M acres

# The Question ...is not whether we will double yields with fewer inputs/bu.
...it is.... what could we do with 25B bu. of corn if the ROW is fundamentally self-sufficient in corn?

### Rusty Freeland 

# Invention is the Best Way to Predict the Future Consider it Done!

# Global corn yields are significantly lower than the US



# • Insert Mike E’s slide

45