# APPENDIX 8 B. S UPPLEMENTARY L IFE C YCLE C OST A ND P AYBACK

P ERIOD R ESULTS

T ABLE O F C ONTENTS

8 B.1 INTRODUCTION

.................................. .................................................................8B­1

8 B.2 INTRODUCTION TO UNCERTAINTY AND V ARIABILITY

... ........................8B­1

8 B.3 UNCERTAINTY .....................................................................................................8B­2

8 B.4 VARIABILITY........................................................................................................8B­2

8 B.5 APPROACHES TO UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY

..... ..........................8B­2

8 B.6 PROBABILITY ANALYSIS A ND THE U SE O F C RYSTAL B ALL...................8B­3

8 B.7 GENERAL S ERVICE F LUORESCENT RESULTS..............................................8B­4

8 B.7.1 Monte C arlo R esults

................................................................................................ 8B­4

8 B.7.1.1 4­foot M edium B ipin

............................................................................ 8B­4

8 B.7.1.2 8­foot S ingle P in S limline................................................................... 8B­10

8 B.7.1.3 8­foot R ecessed D ouble C ontact H igh O utput.................................... 8B­13

8 B.7.2 Lamp a nd B allast P rice S cenario R esults

..... .........................................................8B­18

8 B.7.2.1 4­foot M edium B ipin

.......................................................................... 8B­18

8 B.7.2.2 8­foot S ingle P in S limline................................................................... 8B­34

8 B.7.2.3 8­foot R ecessed D ouble C ontact H O.................................................. 8B­43

8 B.8 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR R ESULTS.......................................................8B­53

8 B.8.3 Monte C arlo R esults

.............................................................................................. 8B­54

8 B.8.4 Lamp P rice S cenario R esults

................. ................................................................8B­57

8 B.8.5 Operating H our S cenario R esults...........................................................................8B­64

L IST O F T ABLES

Ta ble 8 B.7.1 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 4 0W T1 2 M edium

B ipin S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector.....................................8B­6

Ta ble 8 B.7.2 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 4W T1 2 M edium

B ipin S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector.....................................8B­8

Ta ble 8 B.7.3 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 2W T8 Medium

B ipin S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector...................................8B­10

Ta ble 8 B.7.4 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 7 5W T1 2 S ingle

P in S limline S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector........................8B­11

Ta ble 8 B.7.5 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 6 0W T1 2 S ingle

P in S limline S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector........................8B­12

Ta ble 8 B.7.6 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 5 9W T8 Single

P in S limline S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector........................8B­13

Ta ble 8 B.7.7 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 1 10W T1 2

R ecessed D ouble C ontact H O System O perating i n t he I ndustrial

S ector

......................................................................................................... 8B­15

8 B­i

# Table 8 B.7.8 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 9 5W T1 2

R ecessed D ouble C ontact H O System O perating i n t he I ndustrial

S ector

......................................................................................................... 8B­16

Ta ble 8 B.7.9 LCC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 4 0W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­20

Ta ble 8 B.7.10 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 4 0W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­22

Ta ble 8 B.7.11 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 4 0W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rices........8B­24

Ta ble 8 B.7.12 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 4W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­26

Ta ble 8 B.7.13 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 4W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­28

Ta ble 8 B.7.14 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 4W T1 2 M edium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rices........8B­30

Ta ble 8 B.7.15 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 2W T8 Medium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­31

Ta ble 8 B.7.16 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 2W T8 Medium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­32

Ta ble 8 B.7.17 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 3­Lamp 4 ­foot 3 2W T8 Medium B ipin

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rice

......... 8B­34

Ta ble 8 B.7.18 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 7 5W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­35

Ta ble 8 B.7.19 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 7 5W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­36

Ta ble 8 B.7.20 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 7 5W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rices........8B­37

Ta ble 8 B.7.21 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 6 0W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­38

Ta ble 8 B.7.22 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 6 0W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­39

Ta ble 8 B.7.23 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 6 0W T1 2 S ingle P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rice

......... 8B­40

Ta ble 8 B.7.24 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 5 9W T8 Single P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices.......8B­41

Ta ble 8 B.7.25 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 5 9W T8 Single P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices

....... 8B­42

Ta ble 8 B.7.26 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 5 9W T8 Single P in S limline

S ystem O perating i n t he C ommercial S ector w ith No Ballast P rices........8B­43

Ta ble 8 B.7.27 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 1 10W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n t he I ndustrial S ector w ith H igh L amp

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­44

8 B­ii

# Table 8 B.7.28 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 1 10W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n t he I ndustrial S ector w ith L ow L amp

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­46

Ta ble 8 B.7.29 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 1 10W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n t he I ndustrial S ector w ith No Ballast

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­48

Ta ble 8 B.7.30 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 9 5W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n I ndustrial S ector w ith H igh L amp

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­50

Ta ble 8 B.7.31 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 9 5W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n I ndustrial S ector w ith L ow L amp

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­51

Ta ble 8 B.7.32 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 2­Lamp 8 ­foot 9 5W T1 2 R ecessed D ouble

C ontact H O System O perating i n I ndustrial S ector w ith No Ballast

P rices..........................................................................................................8B­52

Ta ble 8 B.8.1 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n

t he C ommercial S ector...............................................................................8B­54

Ta ble 8 B.8.2 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n

t he R esidential S ector

............................. ...................................................8B­55

Ta ble 8 B.8.3 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n

t he C ommercial S ector...............................................................................8B­55

Ta ble 8 B.8.4 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n

t he R esidential S ector

............................. ...................................................8B­56

Ta ble 8 B.8.5 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n

t he C ommercial S ector...............................................................................8B­56

Ta ble 8 B.8.6 LCC a nd P BP M onte C arlo R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n

t he R esidential S ector

............................. ...................................................8B­57

Ta ble 8 B.8.7 LCC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices

............ ..................................8B­58

Ta ble 8 B.8.8 LCC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector w ith H igh L amp P rices

........... .....................................8B­58

Ta ble 8 B.8.9 LCC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices...............................................8B­59

Ta ble 8 B.8.10 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector w ith L ow L amp P rices.................................................8B­59

Ta ble 8 B.8.11 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector u sing H igh L amp P rices.............................................8B­60

Ta ble 8 B.8.12 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing H igh L amp P rices...............................................8B­60

Ta ble 8 B.8.13 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector u sing L ow L amp P rices

............ .................................8B­61

Ta ble 8 B.8.14 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing L ow L amp P rices

........... ....................................8B­61

8 B­iii

# Table 8 B.8.15 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector u sing H igh L amp P rices.............................................8B­62

Ta ble 8 B.8.16 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing H igh L amp P rices...............................................8B­62

Ta ble 8 B.8.17 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

C ommercial S ector u sing L ow L amp P rices

............ .................................8B­63

Ta ble 8 B.8.18 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing L ow L amp P rices

........... ....................................8B­63

Ta ble 8 B.8.19 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing H igh O perating H ours........................................8B­64

Ta ble 8 B.8.20 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 90W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing L ow O perating H ours.........................................8B­65

Ta ble 8 B.8.21 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing H igh O perating H ours........................................8B­66

Ta ble 8 B.8.22 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 75W P AR38 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing L ow O perating H ours.........................................8B­66

Ta ble 8 B.8.23 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing H igh O perating H ours........................................8B­67

Ta ble 8 B.8.24 L CC a nd P BP R esults f or a 50W P AR30 L amp O perating i n t he

R esidential S ector u sing L ow O perating H ours.........................................8B­67

8 B­iv

# APPENDIX 8 B. S UPPLEMENTARY LIFE C YCLE C OST A ND PAYBACK P ERIOD

R ESULTS

8 B.1 I NTRODUCTION

Th is a ppendix d iscusses u ncertainty a nd v ariability analyses a nd p resents r esults o f t hose

u ncertainty a nd v ariability a nalyses p reformed i n t he l ife c ycle c ost ( LCC) a nd p ayback p eriod

( PBP) a nalysis. R esults f or t he l ife c ycle c ost ( LCC) a nd p ayback p eriod ( PBP) a nalysis u sing a

distribution o f op erating h ours, discount r ates, sales t ax, a nd e lectricity p rices a re p resented. Th e

a verage L CC s avings a t e ach c andidate s tandard l evel ( CSL) f or e ach l amp o r l amp­and­ballast

d esign a re g iven a s w ell a s t he p ercentage o f c onsumers w ho w ould e xperience a net b enefit o r

n et l oss b y p urchasing a from a standards c ase d esign i nstead o f a base c ase d esign. Th e m edian

a nd m ean P BP a re a lso g iven. Th is a ppendix a lso presents r esults o f t he LC C a nd P BP a nalysis

u sing h igh a nd l ow lamp p rices. F or g eneral s ervice f luorescent l amps ( GSFL), r esults u sing

m edium­range l amp p rices a nd n o b allast p rice, w here t he p rice o f t he b allasts i s e qual t o z ero,

a re a lso presented. F or r esidential i ncandescent r eflectors l amps ( IRL) r esults u sing h igh

op erating h ours ( 1,210 h ours/ y ear: t he a verage o perating h ours o f a lamp p laced i n t he k itchen

o f a single­family d etached h ome) a nd l ow operating h ours ( 183 h ours/ y ear: t he a verage

op erating h ours o f a lamp p laced i n a closet o f a multi­family 2 ­4 u nit h ome) a re p resented.

Th ese op erating h ours a re ob tained U .S. L ighting M arket C haracterization: V olume I 1



# .

8B.2 I NTRODUCTION T O U NCERTAINTY A ND V ARIABILITY

A nalysis o f a n e nergy­efficiency s tandard i nvolves calculations o f i mpacts, f or e xample,

t he i mpact o f a standard o n c onsumer L CC. I n o rder t o p erform t he c alculation, t he a nalyst m ust

f irst: 1 ) s pecify t he e quation o r m odel t hat w ill b e u sed; 2 ) d efine t he q uantities i n t he e quation;

a nd 3 ) p rovide n umerical v alues f or e ach q uantity. I n t he s implest c ase, t he e quation i s

u nambiguous ( contains a ll r elevant q uantities a nd n o o thers), e ach q uantity h as a single

n umerical v alue, a nd t he c alculation r esults i n a single v alue. H owever, u nambiguity a nd

p recision a re r arely t he c ase. I n a lmost a ll c ases, t he m odel a nd/or t he n umerical v alues f or e ach

q uantity i n t he m odel a re n ot c ompletely k nown ( i.e., there i s u ncertainty) o r t he m odel a nd/or

t he n umerical v alues f or e ach q uantity i n t he m odel d epend up on o ther c onditions ( i.e., there i s

v ariability).

Th orough a nalysis i nvolves a ccounting f or u ncertainty a nd v ariability. W hile t he

s implest a nalysis i nvolves a single n umerical v alue f or e ach q uantity i n a calculation, a rguments

c an a rise a bout w hat t he a ppropriate v alue i s f or e ach q uantity. Ex plicit a nalysis o f u ncertainty

a nd v ariability i s i ntended t o p rovide m ore c omplete i nformation t o t he d ecision­making p rocess.

8B­1

# 8B.3 U NCERTAINTY

W hen m aking ob servations o f p ast e vents o r s peculating a bout t he f uture, i mperfect

k nowledge i s t he r ule r ather t han t he e xception. F or e xample, t he e nergy a ctually c onsumed b y a

particular a ppliance t ype ( such a s t he a verage U .S. l amp) i s n ot d irectly r ecorded, but r ather

e stimated b ased up on a vailable i nformation. Ev en d irect l aboratory m easurements h ave s ome

m argin o f e rror. W hen e stimating n umerical v alues e xpected f or q uantities a t s ome f uture d ate,

t he e xact o utcome i s r arely k nown i n a dvance.

8 B.4 V ARIABILITY

V ariability m eans t hat d ifferent a pplications o r s ituations p roduce d ifferent n umerical

v alues w hen c alculating a quantity. S pecifying a n e xact v alue f or a quantity m ay b e d ifficult

b ecause t he v alue d epends o n s omething e lse. F or e xample, t he n umber o f h ours a lamp i s

op erated b y a household d epends up on t he s pecific c ircumstances a nd b ehaviors o f t he o ccupants

( e.g., number o f p ersons, p ersonal h abits a bout h ow m uch l ight t he p erson n eeds, etc.).

V ariability m akes s pecifying a n a ppropriate p opulation v alue m ore d ifficult i n a s m uch a s a ny

o ne v alue m ay n ot b e r epresentative o f t he e ntire p opulation. S urveys c an b e h elpful h ere, a nd

a nalysis o f s urveys c an r elate t he v ariable o f i nterest ( e.g., hours o f u se) t o o ther v ariables t hat

a re b etter k nown o r e asier t o f orecast ( e.g., persons p er h ousehold).

8 B.5 A PPROACHES T O U NCERTAINTY A ND V ARIABILITY

Th is s ection d escribes t wo a pproaches t o u ncertainty a nd v ariability:

• scenario a nalysis, and

• probability a nalysis.

S cenario a nalysis u ses a single n umerical v alue f or e ach q uantity i n a calculation, t hen

c hanges o ne ( or m ore) o f t he n umerical v alues a nd r epeats t he c alculation. A number o f

c alculations a re d one, w hich p rovide s ome i ndication o f t he e xtent t o w hich t he r esult d epends

up on t he a ssumptions. For e xample, t he l ife­cycle c ost o f a lamp c ould b e c alculated f or e nergy

r ates o f 2

, 8

, a nd 1 4¢ p er k Wh.

Th e a dvantages o f s cenario a nalysis a re t hat e ach c alculation i s s imple; a range o f

e stimates i s u sed; a nd c rossover p oints c an b e i dentified. ( An e xample o f a crossover p oint i s t he

e nergy r ate a bove w hich t he l ife­cycle c ost i s r educed, h olding a ll o ther i nputs c onstant. Th at i s,

t he c rossover p oint i s t he e nergy r ate a t w hich t he c onsumer a chieves s avings i n op erating

e xpense t hat m ore t han c ompensate f or t he i ncreased p urchase e xpense.) The d isadvantage o f

s cenario a nalysis i s t hat t here i s n o i nformation a bout t he l ikelihood o f e ach s cenario.

8B­2

# Probability a nalysis c onsiders t he p robabilities w ithin a range o f v alues. F or q uantities

w ith v ariability ( e.g., electricity r ates i n d ifferent h ouseholds), s urveys c an b e u sed t o g enerate a

frequency d istribution o f n umerical v alues ( e.g., the n umber o f h ouseholds w ith e lectricity r ates

a t p articular l evels) t o e stimate t he p robability o f e ach v alue. F or q uantities w ith u ncertainty,

s tatistical o r s ubjective m easures c an b e u sed t o p rovide p robabilities ( e.g., manufacturing c ost t o

i mprove e nergy e fficiency t o s ome l evel m ay b e e stimated t o b e $ 10 ± $3).

Th e m ajor d isadvantage o f t he p robability a pproach i s t hat i t r equires m ore i nformation,

n amely i nformation a bout t he s hapes a nd m agnitudes o f t he v ariability a nd u ncertainty o f e ach

q uantity. Th e a dvantage o f t he p robability a pproach i s t hat i t p rovides g reater i nformation a bout

t he o utcome o f t he c alculations, that i s, it p rovides t he p robability t hat t he o utcome w ill b e i n a

particular r ange.

S cenario a nd p robability a nalysis p rovide s ome i ndication o f t he r obustness o f t he p olicy

g iven t he u ncertainties a nd v ariability. A policy i s r obust w hen t he i mpacts a re a cceptable o ver a

wide r ange o f p ossible c onditions.

8 B.6 P ROBABILITY A NALYSIS A ND T HE U SE O F C RYSTAL B ALL

To quantify t he u ncertainty a nd v ariability t hat e xist i n i nputs t o t he e ngineering, L CC,

a nd p ayback p eriod ( PBP) a nalyses, the D epartment u sed M icrosoft Ex cel s preadsheets

c ombined w ith C rystal B all, a commercially a vailable a dd­in, t o c onduct p robability a nalyses.

Th e p robability a nalyses u sed M onte C arlo s imulation a nd p robability d istributions.

S imulation r efers t o a ny a nalytical m ethod m eant t o i mitate a real­life s ystem, e specially

w hen o ther a nalyses a re t oo m athematically c omplex o r t oo d ifficult t o r eproduce. W ithout t he

a id o f s imulation, a spreadsheet m odel w ill o nly r eveal a single o utcome, g enerally t he m ost

l ikely o r a verage s cenario. S preadsheet r isk a nalysis u ses b oth a spreadsheet m odel a nd

s imulation t o a utomatically a nalyze t he e ffect o f v arying i nputs o n o utputs o f t he m odeled

s ystem. O ne t ype o f s preadsheet s imulation i s M onte C arlo s imulation, w hich r andomly

g enerates v alues f or u ncertain v ariables a gain a nd a gain t o s imulate a model. M onte C arlo

s imulation w as n amed f or M onte C arlo, M onaco, w here t he p rimary a ttractions a re c asinos

c ontaining g ames o f c hance. G ames o f c hance s uch a s roulette w heels, dice, a nd s lot m achines,

e xhibit r andom b ehavior. Th e r andom b ehavior i n g ames o f c hance i s s imilar t o h ow Monte

C arlo s imulation s elects v ariable v alues a t r andom t o s imulate a model. W hen y ou r oll a die, y ou

k now that e ither a 1, 2

, 3

, 4

, 5

, o r 6 will c ome up, but y ou d o n ot k now which f or a ny p articular

r oll. I t's t he s ame w ith t he v ariables t hat h ave a known r ange o f v alues b ut a n u ncertain v alue f or

a ny p articular t ime o r e vent ( e.g., equipment l ifetime, d iscount r ate, a nd i nstallation c ost).

F or e ach u ncertain v ariable ( one t hat h as a range o f p ossible v alues), possible v alues a re d efined

w ith a probability d istribution. Th e t ype o f d istribution s elected i s b ased o n t he

c onditions s urrounding t hat v ariable. P robability d istribution t ypes i nclude:

8B­3

# NORMAL 

# TRIANGULAR UNIFORM



# Figure 8 B.6.1 N ormal P robability

D istribution Figure 8 B.6.2 T riangular

P robability D istribution Figure 8 B.6.3 U niform P robability

D istribution



# During a simulation, m ultiple s cenarios o f a model are c alculated b y r epeatedly s ampling v alues

f rom t he p robability d istributions f or t he u ncertain variables a nd u sing t hose v alues f or t he c ell.

C rystal B all s imulations c an c onsist o f a s m any t rials ( or s cenarios) a s d esired—hundreds o r

e ven t housands. D uring a single t rial, C rystal B all r andomly s elects a value f rom t he d efined

p ossibilities ( the r ange a nd s hape o f t he p robability d istribution) f or e ach u ncertain v ariable a nd

t hen r ecalculates t he s preadsheet.

8 B.7 G ENERAL S ERVICE F LUORESCENT R ESULTS

D OE a nalyzed t hree p roduct c lasses f or G SFL, 4 ­foot medium b i­pin, 8 ­foot s ingle­pin

s limline, a nd 8 ­foot r ecessed d ouble c ontact h igh­output. F or e ach o f t he t hree p roduct c lasses,

D OE c onducts b oth p robability a nalyses ( based o n M onte C arlo r uns) a nd s cenario a nalyses.

8 B.7.1 Monte C arlo R esults

To characterize t he L CC s avings a nd M onte C arlo r esults f or G SFL, D OE d eveloped

t ables t o d escribe t he r esults d istributions. Th ese t ables d ocument t he a verage L CC s avings a nd

p ercentages o f b uilding a nalyzed w ith p ositive a nd n egative L CC s avings f or v arious s ystem i n

e ach e vent a nalyzed. I n a ddition, t o c haracterize t he d istribution o f p ayback p eriods, DOE

r eports t he m edian a nd a verage p ayback p eriod f or e ach s ystem a nalyzed f or e ach e vent.

8 B.7.1.1 4­foot M edium B ipin

F or t he 4 ­foot m edium b i­pin p roduct c lass, DOE a nalyzed t hree b aseline l amps: a 40W

T1 2, 3 4W T1 2, a nd 3 2W T8

. Ea ch l amp w as a nalyzed a t f ive c andidate s tandard l evels w ith

m inimum e fficacy r equirement o f 9 2.4, 8 5.0, 9 0.0, 9 2.3, a nd 9 5.4 lm/W. T he f ollowing t ables

p resent t he L CC s avings a nd P BP M onteCarlo r esults for t he t hree 4 ­foot m edium b ipin

b aselines op erating i n t he c ommercial s ector. K ey i nputs c onsist o f u sing t he En ergy

I nformation A dministration’s ( EIA’s) A nnual E nergy O utlook 2 007 ( AEO2007 ) r eference c ase

8B­4

# electricity p rices, and m edium­range l amp a nd b allast p rices. No te: L amp r eplacement r esults i n

Ev ent I are n ot s hown f or a 34W T1 2 l amp b ecause t here a re n o e nergy s aving l amp r eplacement

op tions.

8B­5Table8B.7.1LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.0­10.3­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.70.0­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A2.110.911.514.011.56.87.04.55.74.74.56.6N/A10.911.514.011.56.87.04.55.74.74.56.6MedianN/A2.110.711.213.711.26.66.94.45.64.54.46.4N/A10.711.213.711.26.66.94.45.64.54.46.4LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A0.088.388.392.589.421.622.61.911.72.12.517.3N/A97.097.099.197.142.748.55.926.27.28.234.2NetBenefit%N/A100.011.711.77.510.678.477.498.188.397.997.582.7N/A3.03.00.92.957.351.594.173.892.891.865.8AverageSavingsN/A17.23­9.10­9.92­9.39­10.188.707.0525.7413.6124.3626.0210.78N/A­15.81­16.63­16.11­16.901.980.3419.026.8917.6519.304.07

Design Option40WT12&0.95BFMag34WT12&0.88BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.95BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.091.282.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.080.082.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.aLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitaThroughoutthefollowingtables,Replacementisreferredtoas“Repl.”,andNewConstructionandRenovationisreferredtoas“NewConst.”and“Renov.”,respectively.8B­6Table8B.7.1LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSector(continued)MeanLumensfromBaseline%­7.4­4.6­2.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A39.467.068.82.81.00.00.80.00.42.0N/A6.72.10.80.00.70.00.41.5MedianN/A38.365.266.92.71.00.00.80.00.42.0N/A6.52.10.80.00.70.00.41.5LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A100.0100.0100.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.0N/A70.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A0.00.00.099.9100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0N/A29.2100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A­5.79­7.44­7.7011.189.5428.2216.0926.8528.5013.26N/A­0.7918.0916.4535.1323.0033.7635.4120.17

Design Option40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.082.585.090.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit*Comparativelumensaresometimesnon­zeroforbaselineT12electronicsystemsundereventsIIIandIV(ballastfailureandretrofit)becausethelumenpackageiscomparedtoasystemwithaT12magneticballast.DOEchosetocomparethesesystemsfortheseeventsbecauseitrecognizesthatthoughfederalregulationswillprohibittheuseofmagneticballasts,futurepurchasersmaystillseekthecurrentlumenpackagedeliveredbycurrentT12magneticsystems.8B­7Table8B.7.2LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.04.510.99.64.418.55.63.38.0PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A13.814.39.16.815.16.35.76.54.55.3N/A13.814.39.16.815.16.35.76.54.55.3N/A11.132.30.00.042.00.00.00.0MedianN/A13.313.88.86.514.56.05.56.24.45.2N/A13.313.88.86.514.56.05.56.24.45.2N/A10.731.10.00.040.40.00.00.0LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A96.799.255.024.099.113.315.516.32.76.1N/A99.599.981.442.699.827.630.432.18.814.4N/A100.0100.00.00.0100.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A3.30.845.076.00.986.784.583.797.393.9N/A0.50.118.657.40.272.469.667.991.285.6N/A0.00.0100.0100.00.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A­12.48­17.87­1.006.67­18.0911.3010.779.9222.4418.03N/A­17.86­23.26­6.391.28­23.475.915.384.5417.0612.65N/A­2.06­9.087.7915.46­9.3020.0919.5618.71

Design Option34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W77.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.4

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­8MeanLumensfromBaseline%­1.3­0.9PaybackPeriodyrAverage0.00.4Median0.00.4LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%0.00.0NetBenefit%100.0100.0AverageSavings31.2326.82

Design Option28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W97.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL5CSL5

Response

E ventTable8B.7.2LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSector(continued)MeanLumensfromBaseline%9.618.54.45.63.38.0­1.3­0.9PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A42.00.00.00.00.00.00.4MedianN/A40.40.00.00.00.00.00.4LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A­9.3015.4620.0919.5618.7131.2326.82

Design Option32.5WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W86.291.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl..

EventEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­9Table8B.7.3LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.06.32.6­9.50.0­4.7­3.6­5.7­1.41.6­9.50.0­4.7­3.6­5.7­1.41.6­9.5PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A2.60.91.6N/A1.41.21.21.80.91.6N/A1.41.21.21.80.91.6MedianN/A2.50.91.6N/A1.41.21.11.70.91.6N/A1.41.21.11.70.91.6LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A7.10.00.0N/A0.00.00.00.00.00.0N/A0.00.00.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A92.9100.0100.0N/A100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0N/A100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A2.0113.8818.82N/A7.5812.1711.6210.8013.8818.82N/A7.5812.1711.6210.8013.8818.82

Design Option32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W86.295.097.396.086.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL2CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B.7.1.28­footSinglePinSlimlineForthe8­footsingle­pinslimlineproductclass,DOEanalyzedthreebaselinelamps:a75WT12,60WT12,and59WT8.Eachlampwasanalyzedatfivecandidatestandardlevelswithminimumefficacyrequirementof87.3,92.0,94.8,98.2,and101.5lm/W.ThefollowingtablespresenttheLCCsavingsandPBPMonteCarloresultsforthethree8­footsinglepinslimlinebaselinesoperatinginthecommercialsector.KeyinputsconsistofusingtheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA’s)AnnualEnergy8B­10Outlook2007(AEO2007)referencecaseelectricityprices,andmedium­rangelampandballastprices.Note:LampreplacementresultsinEventIarenotshownfora60WT12lampbecausetherearenoenergysavinglampreplacementoptions.Table8B.7.4LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.0­13.1­5.7­2.59.0­8.10.0­5.7­2.59.0­8.1­6.4­5.7­2.5­8.19.0­8.1PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A0.412.112.446.36.7N/A12.112.446.36.7N/A8.611.10.7N/A0.0MedianN/A0.411.812.145.36.6N/A11.812.145.36.6N/A8.410.90.7N/A0.0LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A0.096.792.5100.013.0N/A100.099.4100.031.8N/A100.099.50.0N/A0.0NetBenefit%N/A100.03.37.50.087.0N/A0.00.60.068.2N/A0.00.5100.0N/A100.0AverageSavingsN/A29.83­15.22­11.71­26.9713.30N/A­23.44­19.93­35.195.08N/A­5.17­1.6523.36N/A40.27

Design Option75WT12&0.94BFMag60.5WT12&0.88BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.94BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W85.697.587.392.094.8101.585.687.392.094.8101.585.687.392.0101.594.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­11Table8B.7.5LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.53.23.610.110.03.23.610.1PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A16.317.022.912.513.612.8N/A16.317.022.912.513.612.8N/A6.311.03.04.03.7N/A1.41.92.0MedianN/A15.916.622.212.113.312.4N/A15.916.622.212.113.312.4N/A6.210.72.93.93.6N/A1.41.81.9LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A99.799.799.990.682.388.5N/A100.0100.0100.097.894.697.1N/A100.0100.00.00.00.0N/A0.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A0.30.30.19.417.711.5N/A0.00.00.02.25.42.9N/A0.00.0100.0100.0100.0N/A100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A­19.52­19.11­18.23­11.35­8.51­10.65N/A­25.27­24.85­23.97­17.09­14.25­16.39N/A­3.08­2.675.097.935.79N/A6.889.727.58

Design Option60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W87.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.598.2101.8101.594.898.2101.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­12Table8B.7.6LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorMeanLumensfromBaseline%0.06.25.60.02.22.60.15.60.02.22.60.15.6PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A3.61.5N/A4.82.82.01.5N/A4.82.82.01.5MedianN/A3.51.4N/A4.72.81.91.4N/A4.72.81.91.4LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A0.00.0N/A89.00.00.00.0N/A89.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A100.0100.0N/A11.0100.0100.0100.0N/A11.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A5.188.06N/A­0.996.557.638.06N/A­0.996.557.638.06

Design Option60.1WT8&0.88BFElec57WT8&0.88BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W94.8101.8103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.6

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL3CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLampandBallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenovation8B.7.1.38­footRecessedDoubleContactHighOutputForthe8­footrecesseddoublecontactHO,DOEanalyzedtwobaselinelamps:a110WT12and95WT12.Eachlampwasanalyzedatfivecandidatestandardlevelswithminimumefficacyrequirementof83.2,86.1,87.6,91.9,and95.3lm/W.ThefollowingtablespresenttheLCCsavingsandPBPMonteCarloresultsforbothofthe8­footrecesseddoublecontacthighoutputbaselinesoperatingintheindustrialsector.KeyinputsconsistofusingtheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA’s)AnnualEnergyOutlook2007(AEO2007)referencecaseelectricityprices,andmedium­rangelampandballastprices.Note:LampreplacementresultsinEventIarenotshownfora95WT12lampbecausetherearenoenergysavinglampreplacementoptions.8B­138B­14Table8B.7.7LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSector Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­7.73.8­9.8­8.2­8.2­7.00.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A0.01.959.59.310.710.87.9N/A59.59.310.710.87.9N/A7.40.01.51.51.7N/A7.40.01.51.51.7N/A7.40.01.51.5MedianN/A0.01.855.78.710.010.17.4N/A55.78.710.010.17.4N/A7.00.01.41.41.6N/A7.00.01.41.41.6N/A7.00.01.41.4LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A0.031.7100.092.8100.0100.066.9N/A100.0100.0100.0100.092.3N/A100.00.00.00.00.0N/A100.00.00.00.00.0N/A100.00.00.00.0NetBenefit%N/A100.068.30.07.20.00.033.1N/A0.00.00.00.07.7N/A0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0N/A0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0N/A0.0100.0100.0100.0AverageSavingsN/A13.801.53­36.29­9.63­21.90­22.52­3.73N/A­45.53­18.88­31.15­31.77­12.98N/A­8.1318.536.255.6324.42N/A­8.1318.536.255.6324.42N/A­8.1318.536.255.63

Design Option113WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.186.187.683.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.9

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­15Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­6.71.1PaybackPeriodyrAverage6.74.75.1Median6.24.44.7LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%6.62.88.5NetBenefit%93.497.291.5AverageSavings6.428.606.17

Design Option86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W91.993.095.3

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL4CSL4CSL5

Response

E ventTable8B.7.8LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSector Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.3PaybackPeriodyrAverageN/A79.545.445.716.416.412.5N/A79.545.445.716.416.412.5N/A5.68.48.73.93.9MedianN/A75.042.843.115.415.511.8N/A75.042.843.115.415.511.8N/A5.38.08.23.73.7LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%N/A100.0100.0100.099.299.898.7N/A100.0100.0100.0100.0100.099.9N/A100.0100.0100.00.41.0NetBenefit%N/A0.00.00.00.80.21.3N/A0.00.00.00.00.00.1N/A0.00.00.099.699.0AverageSavingsN/A­31.88­41.79­42.42­18.49­21.54­18.71N/A­38.39­48.30­48.92­25.00­28.05­25.22N/A­3.75­13.66­14.289.646.59

Design Option97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W82.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­16Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %1.0­0.11.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0PaybackPeriodyrAverage3.2N/A0.4N/A5.68.48.73.93.93.2Median3.1N/A0.3N/A5.38.08.23.73.73.1LifeCycleCostSavings$BuildingswithNetCost%0.5N/A74.2N/A100.0100.0100.00.41.00.5NetBenefit%99.5N/A25.8N/A0.00.00.099.699.099.5AverageSavings9.42N/A­0.22N/A­3.75­13.66­14.289.646.599.42

Design Option86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.391.995.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.3

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL4Baseline/CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­17

# 8B.7.2 Lamp a nd B allast P rice S cenario R esults

A s m entioned e arlier, D OE a lso a nalyzed L CC s avings a nd P BP r esults u sing a scenario

a nalysis. S pecifically, because t he L CC a nd P BP r esults a re h ighly d ependent o n e quipment

p rices, DOE e xamined s everal s ensitivities t o t he m edium l amp p rice a nd b allast p rice r esults

p resented i n C hapter 8

. C hapter 7 described t hree p rices ( low, m edium, a nd h igh) D OE

d eveloped f or e ach g eneral s ervice f luorescent l amp. Th e f ollowing t ables p resent L CC s avings

a nd P BP r esults u sing t he l ow and h igh l amp p rices. I n a ddition, because D OE a nalyzes G SFL

b y c onsidering b oth t he l amp a nd t he b allast, r esults p resented i n C hapter 7 account f or t he f irst

c ost o f t he b allast. H owever, a s a sensitivity t o t he a nalysis, DOE presents L CC a nd P BP r esults

a ssuming t hat t he b allast p rice i s e qual t o z ero.

8 B.7.2.1 4­foot M edium B ipin

Th e f ollowing t ables p resent t he f indings o f a n L CC a nalysis o n t he t hree 4 ­foot m edium b ipin

G SFL b aselines op erating i n t he c ommercial s ector, c onsidering l ow lamp p rices, high l amp

p rices, or n o b allast p rices. K ey i nputs c onsist o f u sing AE O2007 r eference c ase e lectricity

p rices a nd a n a nalysis p eriod o f 5 .5 yrs. No te: L amp r eplacement r esults i n Ev ent I are n ot

s hown f or a 34W T1 2 l amp b ecause t here a re n o e nergy s aving l amp r eplacement op tions.

8B­188B­19Table8B.7.9LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­10.3­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.70.0­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A2.710.411.212.611.36.66.54.25.34.44.26.2N/A10.411.212.611.36.66.54.25.34.44.26.2

Operating C ost S avings

O ne Y ear $0.005.715.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.770.005.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.77

Installed Price $16.7932.4177.2683.7566.4184.1783.6270.7563.6772.5465.8671.7077.8116.7977.2683.7566.4184.1783.6270.7563.6772.5465.8671.7077.81

LCC S avings $0.0013.89­12.35­14.23­9.34­14.604.676.1425.3410.7723.4123.658.500.00­20.10­21.99­17.09­22.35­3.09­1.6217.593.0215.6515.900.74

LCC $174.94161.05187.29189.17184.28189.54170.27168.80149.60164.17151.53151.29166.44167.18187.29189.17184.28189.54170.27168.80149.60164.17151.53151.29166.44

Design Option40WT12&0.95BFMag34WT12&0.88BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.95BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.091.282.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.080.082.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.bLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitbThroughoutthefollowingtables,Replacementisreferredtoas“Repl.”,andNewConstructionandRenovationisreferredtoas“NewConst.”and“Renov.”,respectively8B­20Table8B.7.9LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices(continued) Mean L ume n s f rom

B aseline %­7.4­4.6­2.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A50.285.487.73.61.10.01.00.00.52.5N/A8.72.81.00.00.90.00.62.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.180.180.184.352.545.474.745.477.383.970.002.046.204.397.326.597.329.235.82

Installed P rice $68.0077.2683.7584.1783.6270.7563.6772.5465.8671.7077.8166.4184.1783.6270.7563.6772.5465.8671.7077.81

LCC S avings $0.00­8.43­11.15­11.517.769.2228.4313.8626.4926.7411.590.00­5.2614.0015.4734.6820.1132.7432.9917.84

LCC $178.03186.45189.17189.54170.27168.80149.60164.17151.53151.29166.44184.28189.54170.27168.80149.60164.17151.53151.29166.44

Design O ption40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.082.585.090.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit*Comparativelumensaresometimesnon­zeroforbaselineT12electronicsystemsundereventsIIIandIV(ballastfailureandretrofit)becausethelumenpackageiscomparedtoasystemwithaT12magneticballast.DOEchosetocomparethesesystemsfortheseeventsbecauseitrecognizesthatthoughfederalregulationswillprohibittheuseofmagneticballasts,futurepurchasersmaystillseekthecurrentlumenpackagedeliveredbycurrentT12magneticsystems.8B­21Table8B.7.10LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­10.3­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.70.0­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A1.29.59.713.09.75.76.44.15.14.14.15.7N/A9.59.713.09.75.76.44.15.14.14.15.7

Operating C ost S avings

O ne Y ear $0.005.715.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.770.005.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.77

Installed Price $10.7717.4765.9568.7361.9968.9168.6863.8556.4364.6257.3764.2666.8710.7765.9568.7361.9968.9168.6863.8556.4364.6257.3764.2666.87

LCC S avings $0.0021.08­7.06­6.97­10.93­7.1311.867.0225.7214.0624.9026.3712.140.00­12.03­11.95­15.91­12.116.882.0520.759.0819.9221.407.17

LCC $168.92147.84175.98175.90179.86176.05157.06161.90143.20154.86144.03142.55156.78163.95175.98175.90179.86176.05157.06161.90143.20154.86144.03142.55156.78

Design Option40WT12&0.95BFMag34WT12&0.88BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.95BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.091.282.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.080.082.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.cLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitThroughoutthefollowingtables,Replacementisreferredtoas“Repl.”,andNewConstructionandRenovationisreferredtoas“NewConst.”and“Renov.”,respectively8B­22cTable8B.7.10LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices(continued) Mean L ume n s f rom

B aseline %­7.4­4.6­2.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A21.536.637.61.50.70.00.60.00.31.2N/A3.41.10.40.00.40.00.20.8

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.180.180.184.352.545.474.745.477.383.970.002.046.204.397.326.597.329.235.82

Installed P rice $61.9865.9568.7368.9168.6863.8556.4364.6257.3764.2666.8761.9968.9168.6863.8556.4364.6257.3764.2666.87

LCC S avings $0.00­3.14­3.89­4.0414.9510.1128.8117.1527.9829.4615.230.003.8022.7917.9536.6624.9935.8337.3123.08

LCC $172.01175.15175.90176.05157.06161.90143.20154.86144.03142.55156.78179.86176.05157.06161.90143.20154.86144.03142.55156.78

Design O ption40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.082.585.090.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit*Comparativelumensaresometimesnon­zeroforbaselineT12electronicsystemsundereventsIIIandIV(ballastfailureandretrofit)becausethelumenpackageiscomparedtoasystemwithaT12magneticballast.DOEchosetocomparethesesystemsfortheseeventsbecauseitrecognizesthatthoughfederalregulationswillprohibittheuseofmagneticballasts,futurepurchasersmaystillseekthecurrentlumenpackagedeliveredbycurrentT12magneticsystems.8B­23Table8B.7.11LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­10.3­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.70.0­3.5­2.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A2.01.11.90.01.91.10.10.10.20.30.10.6N/A1.11.90.01.91.10.10.10.20.30.10.6

Operating C ost S avings

O ne Y ear $0.005.715.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.770.005.805.983.955.9810.158.3411.2710.5411.2713.189.77

Installed Price $13.7824.9420.4025.0411.7925.3424.9414.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.9313.7820.4025.0411.7925.3424.9414.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.93

LCC S avings $0.0017.4819.5618.6619.8218.3937.5236.5351.1042.3749.7154.9640.270.0013.1912.2913.4512.0331.1630.1644.7336.0043.3548.6033.91

LCC $171.93154.45152.37153.27152.11153.54134.41135.40120.84129.57122.22116.97131.66165.57152.37153.27152.11153.54134.41135.40120.84129.57122.22116.97131.66

Design Option40WT12&0.95BFMag34WT12&0.88BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.95BFMag40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.091.282.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.080.082.585.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.dLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitdThroughoutthefollowingtables,Replacementisreferredtoas“Repl.”,andNewConstructionandRenovationisreferredtoas“NewConst.”and“Renov.”,respectively8B­24Table8B.7.11LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot40WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices(continued) Mean L ume n s f rom

B aseline %­7.4­4.6­2.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.78.73.3­10.3­1.0­8.3­2.0­6.2­6.4­1.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A35.961.062.62.60.40.30.50.60.21.5N/A6.72.10.70.50.70.70.41.4

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.180.180.184.352.545.474.745.477.383.970.002.046.204.397.326.597.329.235.82

Installed P rice $13.7820.4025.0425.3424.9414.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.9311.7925.3424.9414.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.93

LCC S avings $0.00­5.78­7.52­7.7811.3510.3624.9216.1923.5428.7914.100.00­1.4217.7116.7131.2822.5529.9035.1520.46

LCC $145.76151.54153.27153.54134.41135.40120.84129.57122.22116.97131.66152.11153.54134.41135.40120.84129.57122.22116.97131.66

Design O ption40WT12&0.88BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec32.5WT8&1.18BFElec40WT12&0.87BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&1BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&1BFElec25WT8&1.18BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.082.585.090.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.091.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit*Comparativelumensaresometimesnon­zeroforbaselineT12electronicsystemsundereventsIIIandIV(ballastfailureandretrofit)becausethelumenpackageiscomparedtoasystemwithaT12magneticballast.DOEchosetocomparethesesystemsfortheseeventsbecauseitrecognizesthatthoughfederalregulationswillprohibittheuseofmagneticballasts,futurepurchasersmaystillseekthecurrentlumenpackagedeliveredbycurrentT12magneticsystems.8B­25Table8B.7.12LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.04.510.99.64.418.55.63.3

Payback Period y rN/A12.713.88.26.314.75.85.46.14.25.1N/A12.713.88.26.314.75.85.46.14.25.1N/A14.040.60.00.052.80.00.1

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.000.370.371.123.560.374.295.22

Installed Price $12.9569.3279.1558.7363.0883.6263.6764.8665.8664.0270.1312.9569.3279.1558.7363.0883.6263.6764.8665.8664.0270.1364.1669.3279.1558.7363.0883.6263.6764.86

LCC S avings $0.00­14.38­22.55­1.505.16­23.2510.077.378.1319.6015.400.00­20.36­28.53­7.49­0.82­29.234.091.392.1513.629.420.00­3.50­13.337.7114.38­14.0319.2916.59

LCC $145.36159.74167.90146.86140.19168.61135.29137.99137.22125.75129.96139.37159.74167.90146.86140.19168.61135.29137.99137.22125.75129.96154.57158.07167.90146.86140.19168.61135.29137.99

Design Option34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W77.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­26Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %8.0­1.3­0.9

Payback Period y r0.40.00.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $4.297.726.74

Installed Price $65.8664.0270.13

LCC S avings $17.3528.8224.62

LCC $137.22125.75129.96

Design Option32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL5CSL5CSL5

Response

E ventTable8B.7.12LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices(continued) Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %9.618.54.45.63.38.0­1.3­0.9

Payback Period y rN/A52.80.00.00.10.40.00.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.373.564.295.224.297.726.74

Installed Price $58.7383.6263.0863.6764.8665.8664.0270.13

LCC S avings $0.00­14.0314.3819.2916.5917.3528.8224.62

LCC $146.86168.61140.19135.29137.99137.22125.75129.96

Design Option32.5WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W86.291.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­27Table8B.7.13LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.04.510.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3

Payback Period y rN/A12.012.08.15.912.45.44.95.53.94.5N/A12.012.08.15.912.45.44.95.53.94.5N/A6.017.40.00.022.60.00.00.00.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.000.370.371.123.560.374.295.224.297.72

Installed Price $9.1362.5566.7654.3156.1768.6856.4356.9457.3756.5859.209.1362.5566.7654.3156.1768.6856.4356.9457.3756.5859.2060.3362.5566.7654.3156.1768.6856.4356.9457.3756.58

LCC S avings $0.00­11.43­13.98­0.918.24­13.8612.6512.8511.8224.5221.240.00­15.65­18.20­5.124.02­18.088.438.637.6020.3017.020.00­0.55­4.768.3117.46­4.6521.8622.0721.0333.73

LCC $141.53152.96155.51142.44133.29155.40128.89128.68129.72117.02120.30137.32152.96155.51142.44133.29155.40128.89128.68129.72117.02120.30150.75151.30155.51142.44133.29155.40128.89128.68129.72117.02

Design Option34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W77.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.3

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­28Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %­0.9

Payback Period y r0.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $6.74

Installed Price $59.20

LCC S avings $30.45

LCC $120.30

Design Option25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W96.0

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL5

Response

E ventTable8B.7.13LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices(continued) Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %9.618.54.45.63.38.0­1.3­0.9

Payback Period y rN/A22.60.00.00.00.00.00.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.373.564.295.224.297.726.74

Installed Price $54.3168.6856.1756.4356.9457.3756.5859.20

LCC S avings $0.00­4.6517.4621.8622.0721.0333.7330.45

LCC $142.44155.40133.29128.89128.68129.72117.02120.30

Design Option32.5WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W86.291.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­29Table8B.7.14LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.07.010.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3­0.90.04.510.99.64.418.55.63.38.0­1.3

Payback Period y rN/A0.82.20.10.52.90.50.50.70.40.8N/A0.82.20.10.52.90.50.50.70.40.8N/A10.029.00.71.137.71.01.01.40.6

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.004.444.815.568.004.818.739.678.7312.1611.180.000.370.371.123.560.374.295.224.297.72

Installed Price $11.0414.7321.7511.7914.8924.9415.3116.1616.8815.5619.9311.0414.7321.7511.7914.8924.9415.3116.1616.8815.5619.9311.0414.7321.7511.7914.8924.9415.3116.1616.8815.56

LCC S avings $0.0016.3511.0024.3632.2610.7036.9235.6735.5447.6243.880.0011.255.9019.2627.165.6031.8230.5730.4442.5238.780.00­2.02­9.054.3212.22­9.3416.8815.6315.5027.58

LCC $143.44127.09132.45119.09111.18132.74106.52107.77107.9195.8299.56138.35127.09132.45119.09111.18132.74106.52107.77107.9195.8299.56123.40125.43132.45119.09111.18132.74106.52107.77107.9195.82

Design Option34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFMag34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.88BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec34WT12&0.86BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W77.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.396.077.982.485.386.290.891.292.395.095.497.3

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­30Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %­0.9

Payback Period y r1.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $6.74

Installed Price $19.93

LCC S avings $23.84

LCC $99.56

Design Option25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W96.0

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL5

Response

E ventTable8B.7.14LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot34WT12MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices(continued)EventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$PaybackPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%EventIV:BallastRetrofitBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec119.090.0011.790.00N/A9.6Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL391.234WT12&0.86BFElec132.74­9.3424.940.3737.718.5CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec111.1812.2214.893.561.14.4CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec106.5216.8815.314.291.05.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec107.7715.6316.165.221.03.3CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec107.9115.5016.884.291.48.0CSL597.328WT8&0.78BFElec95.8227.5815.567.720.6­1.3CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec99.5623.8419.936.741.3­0.9Table8B.7.15LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices8B­31EventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$Pay­backPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%EventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec121.300.0014.000.00N/A0.0LampRepl.CSL495.030WT8&0.88BFElec122.33­1.0320.121.913.26.3CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec109.8011.4919.284.461.22.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec104.4016.9025.395.622.0­9.5EventIII:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.860.0058.730.00N/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec140.196.6763.082.441.8­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec135.2911.5763.673.171.6­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec137.998.8764.864.101.5­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec137.229.6465.863.172.2­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec135.3711.4964.024.461.21.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec129.9616.9070.135.622.0­9.5EventV:NewConst.andRenov.BaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec146.860.0058.730.00N/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec140.196.6763.082.441.8­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec135.2911.5763.673.171.6­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec137.998.8764.864.101.5­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec137.229.6465.863.172.2­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec135.3711.4964.024.461.21.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec129.9616.9070.135.622.0­9.5Table8B.7.16LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices8B­32EventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLCC$LCCSavings$InstalledPrice$OperatingCostSavingsOneYear$Pay­backPeriodyrMeanLumensfromBaseline%EventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec116.880.009.580.00N/A0.0LampRepl.CSL495.030WT8&0.88BFElec113.033.8512.201.911.46.3CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec101.0615.8111.844.460.52.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec94.7322.1414.465.620.9­9.5EventIII:BallastFailureBaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec142.440.0054.310.00N/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec133.299.1556.172.440.8­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec128.8913.5556.433.170.7­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec128.6813.7656.944.100.6­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec129.7212.7257.373.171.0­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec126.6315.8156.584.460.51.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec120.3022.1459.205.620.9­9.5EventV:NewConst.andRenov.BaselineBaseline/CSL286.232.5WT8&0.88BFElec142.440.0054.310.00N/A0.0Lamp&BallastRepl.CSL390.832.5WT8&0.78BFElec133.299.1556.172.440.8­4.7CSL492.332.5WT8&0.75BFElec128.8913.5556.433.170.7­3.6CSL495.030WT8&0.78BFElec128.6813.7656.944.100.6­5.7CSL595.432.5WT8&0.75BFElec129.7212.7257.373.171.0­1.4CSL597.328WT8&0.88BFElec126.6315.8156.584.460.51.6CSL596.025WT8&0.88BFElec120.3022.1459.205.620.9­9.58B­33Table8B.7.17LCCandPBPResultsfora3­Lamp4­foot32WT8MediumBipinSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrice Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.32.6­9.50.0­4.7­3.6­5.7­1.41.6­9.50.0­4.7­3.6­5.7­1.41.6­9.5

Payback P eriod y rN/A2.30.81.4N/A1.31.11.11.60.81.4N/A1.31.11.11.60.81.4

Operating C ost S avings

O ne Y ear $0.001.914.465.620.002.443.174.103.174.465.620.002.443.174.103.174.465.62

Installed Price $11.7916.1615.5619.9311.7914.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.9311.7914.8915.3116.1616.8815.5619.93

LCC S avings $0.001.4113.6519.520.007.9112.5611.3111.1813.6519.520.007.9112.5611.3111.1813.6519.52

LCC $119.09117.68105.4399.56119.09111.18106.52107.77107.91105.4399.56119.09111.18106.52107.77107.91105.4399.56

Design Option32.5WT8&0.88BFElec30WT8&0.88BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.88BFElec32.5WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec30WT8&0.78BFElec32.5WT8&0.75BFElec28WT8&0.88BFElec25WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W86.295.097.396.086.290.892.395.095.497.396.086.290.892.395.095.497.396.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaseline/CSL2CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B.7.2.28­footSinglePinSlimlineThefollowingtablespresentthefindingsofanLCCanalysisonthethree8­footsinglepinslimlineGSFLbaselinesoperatinginthecommercialsector,consideringlowlampprices,highlampprices,ornoballastprices.KeyinputsconsistofusingAEO2007referencecaseelectricitypricesandananalysisperiodof4.0yrs.Note:LampreplacementresultsinEventIarenotshownfora60WT12lampbecausetherearenoenergysavinglampreplacementoptions.8B­34Table8B.7.18LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­13.1­5.7­2.59.0­8.10.0­5.7­2.59.0­8.1­6.4­5.7­2.5­8.19.0­8.1

Payback Period y rN/A0.511.411.841.56.2N/A11.411.841.56.2N/A10.914.20.8N/A0.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.008.697.067.062.1912.280.007.067.062.1912.280.000.820.826.030.0010.08

Installed Price $20.7125.29101.12103.77111.7597.1420.71101.12103.77111.7597.1492.20101.12103.7797.14111.7597.14

LCC S avings $0.0030.28­17.94­13.33­24.2115.030.00­28.30­23.69­34.574.670.00­8.32­3.7024.660.0039.25

LCC $172.80142.53190.75186.14197.02157.77162.45190.75186.14197.02157.77182.43190.75186.14157.77197.02157.77

Design Option75WT12&0.94BFMag60.5WT12&0.88BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.94BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W85.697.587.392.094.8101.585.687.392.094.8101.585.687.392.0101.594.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­35Table8B.7.19LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­13.1­5.7­2.59.0­8.10.0­5.7­2.59.0­8.1­6.4­5.7­2.5­8.19.0­8.1

Payback Period y rN/A0.210.710.842.86.1N/A10.710.842.86.1N/A4.76.10.5N/A0.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.008.697.067.062.1912.280.007.067.062.1912.280.000.820.826.030.0010.08

Installed Price $11.3613.3286.6687.80105.1385.6511.3686.6687.80105.1385.6582.8486.6687.8085.65105.1385.65

LCC S avings $0.0030.60­11.60­9.01­29.2513.370.00­17.28­14.69­34.937.690.00­1.970.6223.000.0042.62

LCC $161.15130.56172.75170.17190.40147.78155.47172.75170.17190.40147.78170.78172.75170.17147.78190.40147.78

Design Option75WT12&0.94BFMag60.5WT12&0.88BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.94BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W85.697.587.392.094.8101.585.687.392.094.8101.585.687.392.0101.594.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­36Table8B.7.20LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot75WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.0­13.1­5.7­2.59.0­8.10.0­5.7­2.59.0­8.1­6.4­5.7­2.5­8.19.0­8.1

Payback Period y rN/A0.40.91.20.00.2N/A0.91.20.00.2N/A7.810.10.4N/A0.6

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.008.697.067.062.1912.280.007.067.062.1912.280.000.820.826.030.0010.08

Installed Price $16.0319.3022.4024.3012.6118.7116.0322.4024.3012.6118.7116.0322.4024.3018.7112.6118.71

LCC S avings $0.0030.4416.2619.8614.8745.750.008.2411.846.8537.730.00­5.14­1.5424.350.0030.89

LCC $166.98136.54150.72147.12152.11121.23158.96150.72147.12152.11121.23145.58150.72147.12121.23152.11121.23

Design Option75WT12&0.94BFMag60.5WT12&0.88BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.94BFMag75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.88BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec75WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&1.18BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W85.697.587.392.094.8101.585.687.392.094.8101.585.687.392.0101.594.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­37Table8B.7.21LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.53.23.610.110.03.23.610.1

Payback Period y rN/A15.116.020.811.612.712.0N/A15.116.020.811.612.712.0N/A8.013.93.64.84.5N/A1.82.42.5

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.000.820.822.602.042.600.003.362.803.36

Installed Price $13.9591.9996.7888.6194.7495.2897.1413.9591.9996.7888.6194.7495.2897.1485.4391.9996.7894.7495.2897.1488.6194.7495.2897.14

LCC S avings $0.00­21.51­21.27­17.84­12.46­8.42­11.660.00­28.49­28.25­24.81­19.43­15.40­18.630.00­5.37­5.133.687.724.490.005.389.416.18

LCC $134.61156.12155.88152.44147.06143.03146.26127.63156.12155.88152.44147.06143.03146.26150.75156.12155.88147.06143.03146.26152.44147.06143.03146.26

Design Option60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W87.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.598.2101.8101.594.898.2101.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­38Table8B.7.22LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.53.23.610.110.03.23.610.1

Payback Period y rN/A14.414.820.511.012.011.1N/A14.414.820.511.012.011.1N/A3.46.01.82.42.2N/A0.81.01.1

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.000.820.822.602.042.600.003.362.803.36

Installed Price $8.4682.7584.8081.9984.6284.8585.658.4682.7584.8081.9984.6284.8585.6579.9482.7584.8084.6284.8585.6581.9984.6284.8585.65

LCC S avings $0.00­16.85­16.14­18.06­9.17­7.82­8.500.00­21.08­20.37­22.29­13.40­12.05­12.730.00­0.710.006.978.327.640.008.8810.239.55

LCC $127.77144.62143.91145.83136.94135.59136.27123.54144.62143.91145.83136.94135.59136.27143.91144.62143.91136.94135.59136.27145.83136.94135.59136.27

Design Option60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W87.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.598.2101.8101.594.898.2101.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­39Table8B.7.23LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot60WT12SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrice Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.510.03.23.610.10.06.713.53.23.610.110.03.23.610.1

Payback Period y rN/A0.91.60.40.81.01.1N/A0.91.60.40.81.01.1N/A5.79.92.23.02.9N/A1.31.71.8

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.005.165.163.586.946.386.940.000.820.822.602.042.600.003.362.803.36

Installed Price $11.2015.8819.3012.6116.9917.3718.7111.2015.8819.3012.6116.9917.3718.7111.2015.8819.3016.9917.3718.7112.6116.9917.3718.71

LCC S avings $0.0011.8512.3213.6020.7423.4321.470.006.256.728.0015.1317.8215.870.00­3.04­2.565.858.546.580.007.139.827.87

LCC $131.19119.34118.86117.58110.45107.76109.72125.58119.34118.86117.58110.45107.76109.72116.30119.34118.86110.45107.76109.72117.58110.45107.76109.72

Design Option60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFMag60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.5WT12&0.88BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.5WT12&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec57WT8&0.78BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W87.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.594.898.2101.8101.587.692.697.598.2101.8101.594.898.2101.8101.5

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofit8B­40Table8B.7.24LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.25.60.02.22.60.15.60.02.22.60.15.6

Payback Period y rN/A4.61.9N/A6.13.62.51.9N/A6.13.62.51.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.442.930.001.011.853.362.930.001.011.853.362.93

Installed Price $15.9222.5921.4488.6194.7495.2897.1494.1388.6194.7495.2897.1494.13

LCC S avings $0.004.767.340.00­2.686.166.187.340.00­2.686.166.187.34

LCC $120.89116.13113.56152.44155.12146.29146.26145.11152.44155.12146.29146.26145.11

Design Option60.1WT8&0.88BFElec57WT8&0.88BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W94.8101.8103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.6

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL3CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLampandBallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenovation8B­41Table8B.7.25LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.25.60.02.22.60.15.60.02.22.60.15.6

Payback Period y rN/A2.00.8N/A2.61.51.10.8N/A2.61.51.10.8

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.442.930.001.011.853.362.930.001.011.853.362.93

Installed Price $9.3012.1611.6781.9984.6284.8585.6584.3681.9984.6284.8585.6584.36

LCC S avings $0.005.589.210.000.836.979.559.210.000.836.979.559.21

LCC $114.27108.70105.06145.83145.00138.85136.27136.61145.83145.00138.85136.27136.61

Design Option60.1WT8&0.88BFElec57WT8&0.88BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W94.8101.8103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.6

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL3CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLampandBallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenovation8B­42Table8B.7.26LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot59WT8SinglePinSlimlineSystemOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.25.60.02.22.60.15.60.02.22.60.15.6

Payback Period y rN/A3.31.3N/A4.32.61.81.3N/A4.32.61.81.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.442.930.001.011.853.362.930.001.011.853.362.93

Installed Price $12.6117.3716.5612.6116.9917.3718.7116.5612.6116.9917.3718.7116.56

LCC S avings $0.005.178.270.00­0.926.577.878.270.00­0.926.577.878.27

LCC $117.58112.41109.31117.58118.51111.02109.72109.31117.58118.51111.02109.72109.31

Design Option60.1WT8&0.88BFElec57WT8&0.88BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.88BFElec60.1WT8&0.85BFElec57WT8&0.85BFElec60.1WT8&0.78BFElec55WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W94.8101.8103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.694.898.2101.8101.5103.6

Candidate S tandard LevelBaseline/CSL3CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5Baseline/CSL3CSL4CSL5CSL5CSL5

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.BaselineLampandBallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventIII:BallastFailureEventV:NewConst.andRenovation8B.7.2.38­footRecessedDoubleContactHOThefollowingtablespresentthefindingsofanLCCanalysisonthetwo8­footrecesseddoublecontacthighoutputGSFLbaselinesoperatingintheindustrialsector,consideringlowlampprices,highlampprices,ornoballastprices.KeyinputsconsistofusingAEO2007referencecaseelectricitypricesandananalysisperiodof3.2yrs.Note:LampreplacementresultsinEventIarenotshownfora95WT12lampbecausetherearenoenergysavinglampreplacementoptions.8B­43Table8B.7.27LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %0.0­7.7­6.13.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.00.0­6.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A0.12.250.97.69.29.36.6N/A50.97.69.29.36.6N/A8.50.01.71.71.5N/A8.50.01.71.71.5N/A8.50.01.71.75.63.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.007.997.991.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.677.3510.61

Installed P rice $25.0825.5242.77121.80106.09123.34124.21129.5325.08121.80106.09123.34124.21129.53105.65121.80106.09123.34124.21129.53105.65121.80106.09123.34124.21129.53105.65121.80106.09123.34124.21125.02125.48

LCC S avings $0.0015.72­1.53­38.83­5.40­22.65­23.523.390.00­51.43­18.00­35.25­36.12­9.210.00­12.3121.133.883.0029.910.00­12.3121.133.883.0029.910.00­12.3121.133.883.0011.0613.21

LCC $157.13141.41158.66195.96162.53179.77180.65153.74144.53195.96162.53179.77180.65153.74183.65195.96162.53179.77180.65153.74183.65195.96162.53179.77180.65153.74183.65195.96162.53179.77180.65172.59170.44

Design O ption113WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.186.187.683.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.991.993.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­44Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %1.1

Payback P eriod y r4.4

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $10.61

Installed P rice $129.53

LCC S avings $9.87

LCC $173.78

Design O ption86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.3

Candidate S tandard L evelCSL5

Response

E vent8B­45Table8B.7.28LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %0.0­7.7­6.13.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.00.0­6.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A0.00.946.17.68.38.36.4N/A46.17.68.38.36.4N/A3.60.00.70.71.3N/A3.60.00.70.71.3N/A3.60.00.70.75.33.7

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.007.997.991.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.677.3510.61

Installed P rice $14.0614.2521.64101.5594.82102.21102.59115.7214.06101.5594.82102.21102.59115.7294.63101.5594.82102.21102.59115.7294.63101.5594.82102.21102.59115.7294.63101.5594.82102.21102.59113.79113.99

LCC S avings $0.0015.978.58­29.60­5.15­12.54­12.912.080.00­36.67­12.21­19.61­19.98­4.980.00­3.0821.3813.9913.6128.610.00­3.0821.3813.9913.6128.610.00­3.0821.3813.9913.617.5211.68

LCC $146.11130.14137.54175.72151.26158.65159.03144.03139.05175.72151.26158.65159.03144.03172.64175.72151.26158.65159.03144.03172.64175.72151.26158.65159.03144.03172.64175.72151.26158.65159.03165.12160.96

Design O ption113WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.186.187.683.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.991.993.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­46Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %1.1

Payback P eriod y r3.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $10.61

Installed P rice $115.72

LCC S avings $10.25

LCC $162.39

Design O ption86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.3

Candidate S tandard L evelCSL5

Response

E vent8B­47Table8B.7.29LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot110WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatingintheIndustrialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %0.0­7.7­6.13.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.0­6.40.03.8­9.8­8.2­7.00.0­6.7

Payback P eriod y rN/A0.01.66.10.01.21.20.2N/A6.10.01.21.20.2N/A6.10.01.21.20.2N/A6.10.01.21.20.2N/A6.10.01.21.20.50.4

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.007.997.991.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.6715.910.001.9010.6710.6710.677.3510.61

Installed P rice $19.5719.8932.2131.1119.8932.2132.8323.0619.5731.1119.8932.2132.8323.0619.5731.1119.8932.2132.8323.0619.5731.1119.8932.2132.8323.0619.5731.1119.8932.2132.8319.8420.17

LCC S avings $0.0015.843.52­7.6921.258.938.3135.520.00­17.5311.42­0.90­1.5325.680.00­7.6921.258.938.3135.520.00­7.6921.258.938.3135.520.00­7.6921.258.938.3121.2224.38

LCC $151.62135.78148.10159.31130.37142.69143.31116.10141.79159.31130.37142.69143.31116.10151.62159.31130.37142.69143.31116.10151.62159.31130.37142.69143.31116.10151.62159.31130.37142.69143.31130.40127.24

Design O ption113WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec113WT12&0.9BFElec113WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W80.186.187.683.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.995.380.183.286.187.688.991.993.0

Candidate S tandard L evelBaselineCSL2CSL3CSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL5BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4CSL4

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.Lamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­48Mean Lume n s f rom

B aseline %1.1

Payback P eriod y r0.7

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $10.61

Installed P rice $23.06

LCC S avings $21.99

LCC $129.63

Design O ption86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.3

Candidate S tandard L evelCSL5

Response

E vent8B­49Table8B.7.30LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatinginIndustrialSectorwithHighLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0­0.11.00.06.97.69.0­0.1

Payback Period y rN/A66.639.840.113.713.710.5N/A66.639.840.113.713.710.5N/A6.49.710.03.53.53.0N/A0.4N/A6.49.710.03.5

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.342.682.687.927.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.697.9210.690.001.342.682.687.92

Installed Price $16.93106.09123.34124.21125.02125.48129.5316.93106.09123.34124.21125.02125.48129.5397.50106.09123.34124.21125.02125.48129.53125.02129.5397.50106.09123.34124.21125.02

LCC S avings $0.00­32.41­46.95­47.83­14.28­18.07­15.300.00­40.92­55.46­56.33­22.79­26.58­23.800.00­5.89­20.43­21.3012.248.4511.230.00­1.020.00­5.89­20.43­21.3012.24

LCC $132.82165.23179.77180.65147.10150.89148.12124.31165.23179.77180.65147.10150.89148.12159.35165.23179.77180.65147.10150.89148.12147.10148.12159.35165.23179.77180.65147.10

Design Option97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W82.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.391.995.382.586.187.688.991.9

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4Baseline/CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B­50Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %1.31.0

Payback Period y r3.53.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $7.9210.69

Installed Price $125.48129.53

LCC S avings $8.4511.23

LCC $150.89148.12

Design Option86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W93.095.3

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL3CSL4

Response

E ventTable8B.7.31LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatinginIndustrialSectorwithLowLampPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.3

Payback Period y rN/A63.034.334.413.013.19.8N/A63.034.334.413.013.19.8N/A2.84.14.32.92.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.342.682.687.927.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.92

Installed Price $10.5794.82102.21102.59113.79113.99115.7210.5794.82102.21102.59113.79113.99115.7291.1494.82102.21102.59113.79113.99

LCC S avings $0.00­27.50­32.19­32.56­14.27­16.34­11.950.00­32.81­37.50­37.87­19.58­21.66­17.260.00­0.98­5.66­6.0412.2510.18

LCC $126.46153.96158.65159.03140.73142.81138.41121.15153.96158.65159.03140.73142.81138.41152.99153.96158.65159.03140.73142.81

Design Option97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W82.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:StandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailure8B­51Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %1.0­0.11.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0

Payback Period y r2.3N/A0.2N/A2.84.14.32.92.92.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $10.697.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.69

Installed Price $115.72113.79115.7291.1494.82102.21102.59113.79113.99115.72

LCC S avings $14.580.002.320.00­0.98­5.66­6.0412.2510.1814.58

LCC $138.41140.73138.41152.99153.96158.65159.03140.73142.81138.41

Design Option86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W95.391.995.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.3

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL4Baseline/CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.Table8B.7.32LCCandPBPResultsfora2­Lamp8­foot95WT12RecessedDoubleContactHOSystemOperatinginIndustrialSectorwithNoBallastPrices Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %0.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.9

Payback Period y rN/A4.66.97.10.80.80.9N/A4.6

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.342.682.687.927.9210.690.001.34

Installed Price $13.7519.8932.2132.8319.8420.1723.0613.7519.89

LCC S avings $0.00­3.43­13.05­13.6718.5015.5719.160.00­10.34

LCC $129.64133.07142.69143.31111.14114.07110.49122.73133.07

Design Option97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W82.586.187.688.991.993.095.382.586.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1

ResponseBaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&

EventEventI:LampFailureEventII:8B­52Mean Lu m en s from B aseline %7.69.0­0.11.31.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0­0.11.00.06.97.69.0­0.11.31.0

Payback Period y r6.97.10.80.80.9N/A4.66.97.10.80.80.9N/A0.3N/A4.66.97.10.80.80.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $2.682.687.927.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.697.9210.690.001.342.682.687.927.9210.69

Installed Price $32.2132.8319.8420.1723.0613.7519.8932.2132.8319.8420.1723.0619.8423.0613.7519.8932.2132.8319.8420.1723.06

LCC S avings $­19.95­20.5811.598.6612.250.00­3.43­13.05­13.6718.5015.5719.160.000.650.00­3.43­13.05­13.6718.5015.5719.16

LCC $142.69143.31111.14114.07110.49129.64133.07142.69143.31111.14114.07110.49111.14110.49129.64133.07142.69143.31111.14114.07110.49

Design Option97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec97WT12&0.9BFElec97WT12&0.89BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec97WT12&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.88BFElec86WT8&0.81BFElec

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W87.688.991.993.095.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.391.995.382.586.187.688.991.993.095.3

Candidate S tandard LevelCSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4Baseline/CSL3CSL4BaselineCSL1CSL2CSL2CSL3CSL3CSL4

ResponseBallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.BaselineLamp&BallastRepl.

EventStandardsInducedRetrofitEventIII:BallastFailureEventIV:BallastRetrofitEventV:NewConst.andRenov.8B.8INCANDESCENTREFLECTORRESULTSDOEanalyzedthreeIRLbaselinesinthecommercialandresidentialsectors:a90WPAR38lamp,a75WPAR38lamp,anda50PAR30lamp.Foreachofthethreebaselines,DOEconductsbothprobabilityanalyses(basedonMonteCarloruns)andscenarioanalyses.8B­538B.8.3MonteCarloResultsSimilartoGSFL,tocharacterizetheLCCsavingsandMonteCarloresultsforIRLDOEdevelopedtablestodescribetheresultsdistributions.ThesetablesdocumenttheaverageLCCsavingsandpercentagesofbuildinganalyzedwithpositiveandnegativeLCCsavingsforeachlampdesign.Inaddition,tocharacterizethedistributionofpaybackperiods,DOEreportsthemedianandaveragepaybackperiodforeverylampdesignandCSL.ThefollowingtablespresenttheLCCsavingsandPBPMonteCarloresultsforthethreeIRLbaselinesoperatinginthecommercialandresidentialsectors.KeyinputsconsistofusingtheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA’s)AnnualEnergyOutlook2007(AEO2007)referencecaseelectricitypricesandmedium­rangelampprices.Table8B.8.1LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.690W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL116.679W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen2.61100.00.00.60.60.0CSL218.070W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR4.42100.00.00.40.4­3.8CSL319.866W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR6.15100.00.00.60.60.08B­54Table8B.8.2LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.690W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL116.679W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen2.45100.00.01.61.60.0CSL218.070W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR4.55100.00.01.01.0­3.8CSL319.866W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR5.95100.00.01.61.50.0Table8B.8.3LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.075W,14lm/W&2500hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL115.966W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen2.15100.00.00.70.70.0CSL217.560W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR3.30100.00.00.50.50.0CSL319.155W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR5.24100.00.00.70.70.08B­55Table8B.8.4LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline14.075W,14lm/W&2500hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL115.966W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen1.99100.00.02.01.90.0CSL217.560W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR3.36100.00.01.41.30.0CSL319.155W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR5.04100.00.01.91.80.0Table8B.8.5LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline11.650W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL114.044.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen­0.1125.574.51.11.16.9CSL215.041.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR0.3894.75.30.80.86.9CSL317.040W,17lm/W&4000hrs,HIR1.37100.00.01.31.417.28B­56Table8B.8.6LCCandPBPMonteCarloResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorEventResponseCandidateStandardLevelRatedLampEfficacylm/WDesignOptionLifeCycleCostSavings$PaybackPeriodyrInitialLumensfromBaseline%AverageSavingsHouseholdswithNetBenefit%NetCost%MedianAverageEventI:LampFailureBaselineBaseline11.650W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,HalogenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0LampRepl.CSL114.044.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen0.0642.557.53.23.06.9CSL215.041.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR0.6596.23.82.32.26.9CSL317.040W,17lm/W&4000hrs,HIR1.2598.02.03.73.617.28B.8.4LampPriceScenarioResultsAsmentionedearlier,DOEalsoanalyzedLCCsavingsandPBPresultsusingascenarioanalysis.Specifically,becausetheLCCandPBPresultsarehighlydependentonequipmentprices,DOEexaminedseveralsensitivitiestothemediumlamppriceresultspresentedinChapter8.Chapter7describedthreeprices(low,medium,andhigh)DOEdevelopedforeachIRLlampdesign.ThefollowingtablespresentthefindingsoftheLCCandPBPanalysesonthethreeIRLbaselinesoperatinginthecommercialandresidentialsectors,consideringlowlamppricesandhighlampprices.KeyinputsconsistofusingAEO2007referencecaseelectricityprices,averageoperatinghoursineachsector,andananalysisperiodof0.9yrsinthecommercialsectorand3.4yearsintheresidentialsector.8B­57Table8B.8.7LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithHighLampPrices Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A0.70.40.7

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.002.704.915.89

Installed Price $7.879.739.9611.72

LCC S avings $0.003.275.127.04

LCC $31.2627.9926.1524.22

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.8LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorwithHighLampPrices Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A2.01.21.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.931.692.02

Installed Price $6.848.698.9310.69

LCC S avings $0.002.504.546.02

LCC $31.1828.6826.6325.16

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­58Table8B.8.9LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorwithLowLampPrices Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A0.30.20.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.002.704.915.89

Installed Price $4.455.385.506.38

LCC S avings $0.003.085.046.59

LCC $26.7223.6521.6820.14

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.10LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorwithLowLampPrices Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A1.00.60.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.931.692.02

Installed Price $3.424.354.465.34

LCC S avings $0.002.644.806.04

LCC $26.9724.3322.1720.93

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­59Table8B.8.11LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorusingHighLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A0.80.60.8

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.002.213.684.91

Installed Price $7.879.739.9611.72

LCC S avings $0.002.813.966.12

LCC $27.8024.9923.8421.68

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.12LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingHighLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A2.41.62.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.761.271.69

Installed Price $6.848.698.9310.69

LCC S avings $0.002.003.285.00

LCC $27.3825.3924.1122.38

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­60Table8B.8.13LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorusingLowLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A0.40.30.4

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.002.213.684.91

Installed Price $4.455.385.506.38

LCC S avings $0.002.613.885.66

LCC $23.2620.6419.3717.59

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.14LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingLowLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A1.20.81.1

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.761.271.69

Installed Price $3.424.354.465.34

LCC S avings $0.002.143.545.03

LCC $23.1821.0419.6418.15

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­61Table8B.8.15LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorusingHighLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A1.31.01.6

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.402.142.46

Installed Price $7.078.929.1510.91

LCC S avings $0.00­0.53­0.071.04

LCC $18.6319.1618.7017.59

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.16LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingHighLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A3.92.84.6

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.480.730.84

Installed Price $6.037.888.129.88

LCC S avings $0.00­0.410.110.74

LCC $18.6819.0918.5717.95

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­62Table8B.8.17LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheCommercialSectorusingLowLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A0.70.50.8

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.402.142.46

Installed Price $4.054.985.095.97

LCC S avings $0.000.390.971.80

LCC $15.6115.2214.6413.82

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.18LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingLowLampPrices

Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A1.91.42.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.480.730.84

Installed Price $3.023.944.064.94

LCC S avings $0.000.521.161.63

LCC $15.6615.1514.5114.03

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­638B.8.5OperatingHourScenarioResultsInaddition,analyzinglamppricesensitivitiestotheanalysis,DOEalsoanalyzesLCCandPBPsensitivitiestooperatinghours.Asdiscussedearlier,MonteCarloresultstakeintoaccountdistributionsinoperatinghoursacrossbuildingtypes.Specifically,becausetheLCCandPBPresultsarehighlydependentonequipmentprices,DOEexaminedseveralsensitivitiesHowever,intheresidentialsector,becausethereisalargerangeofhoursacrossroomtypes(notdepictedintheoperatinghourdistributionoverbuildingtypes)DOEanalyzeshighandlowoperatinghoursensitivityLCCandPBPresults.Forresidentialincandescentreflectorslamps(IRL)resultsusinghighoperatinghours(1,210hours/year:theaverageoperatinghoursofalampplacedinthekitchenofasingle­familydetachedhome)andlowoperatinghours(183hours/year:theaverageoperatinghoursofalampplacedinaclosetofamulti­family2­4unithome)arepresented.TheseoperatinghourswereobtainedU.S.LightingMarketCharacterization:VolumeIii.ThefollowingtablesdepicttheseresultsfortheresidentialsectorusingkeyinputssuchasAEO2007referencecaseelectricitypricesandaveragelampprices.Thehighoperatinghourscenariousesananalysisperiodof2.5yearsandthelowoperatinghourscenariousesananalysisperiodof16.4years.Table8B.8.19LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingHighOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A1.10.71.0

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.272.312.77

Installed Price $5.136.526.708.01

LCC S avings $0.002.564.736.10

LCC $29.6927.1324.9623.58

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­64Table8B.8.20LCCandPBPResultsfora90WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingLowOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.0­3.80.0

Payback Period y rN/A7.24.56.9

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.190.350.42

Installed Price $5.136.526.708.01

LCC S avings $0.001.442.933.19

LCC $22.5321.0819.6019.34

Design Option90W,14.6lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen79W,16.6lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen70W,18lm/W&3000hrs,HIR66W,19.8lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.616.618.019.8

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­65Table8B.8.21LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingHighOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A1.30.91.2

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.001.041.732.31

Installed Price $5.136.526.708.01

LCC S avings $0.002.033.425.06

LCC $25.7723.7422.3520.71

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.22LCCandPBPResultsfora75WPAR38LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingLowOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.00.00.00.0

Payback Period y rN/A8.86.08.3

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.160.260.35

Installed Price $5.136.526.708.01

LCC S avings $0.001.072.002.45

LCC $19.7618.6917.7617.31

Design Option75W,14lm/W&2500hrs,Halogen66W,15.9lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen60W,17.5lm/W&3000hrs,HIR55W,19.1lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W14.015.917.519.1

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­66Table8B.8.23LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingHighOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A2.11.62.5

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.661.001.15

Installed Price $4.525.916.097.41

LCC S avings $0.000.100.701.25

LCC $17.5717.4716.8716.32

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailureTable8B.8.24LCCandPBPResultsfora50WPAR30LampOperatingintheResidentialSectorusingLowOperatingHours Initial L u m en s from B aseline %0.06.96.917.2

Payback Period y rN/A14.010.316.5

Operating C ost S avings O ne Y ear $0.000.100.150.17

Installed Price $4.525.916.097.41

LCC S avings $0.00­0.340.04­0.26

LCC $13.7414.0813.7014.00

Design Option50W,11.6lm/W&3000hrs,Halogen44.3W,14lm/W&3000hrs,ImprovedHalogen41.3W,15lm/W&3000hrs,HIR40W,17lm/W&4000hrs,ImprovedHIR

Rated Lamp E fficacy l m/W11.614.015.017.0

Candidate S tandard LevelBaselineCSL1CSL2CSL3

ResponseBaselineLampRepl.

EventEventI:LampFailure8B­67

# REFERENCES

1 

# U.S. D epartment o f En ergy, O ffice o f En ergy E fficiency a nd R enewable E nergy. En ergy

C onservation P rogram f or C onsumer P roducts: F inal R eport: U .S. L ighting M arket

C haracterization, V olume I : Na tional L ighting I nventory a nd En ergy C onsumption Es timate.

2 002. W ashington, D .C.

< www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/info/documents/pdfs/lmc_vol1_final.pdf>

ii 

# U.S. D epartment o f En ergy, O ffice o f En ergy E fficiency a nd R enewable E nergy. En ergy

C onservation P rogram f or C onsumer P roducts: F inal R eport: U .S. L ighting M arket

C haracterization, V olume I : Na tional L ighting I nventory a nd En ergy C onsumption Es timate.

2 002. W ashington, D .C.

< www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/info/documents/pdfs/lmc_vol1_final.pdf>

8B­68