United States Department of Agriculture

Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board Long-term Projections Report OCE-2009-1 February 2009 

# USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service Agricultural Marketing Service Office of the Chief Economist Office of Budget a nd Program Analysis Risk Management Agency Natural Resources Conservation Service Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension

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# USDA Long-term Projections

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USDA Long-term Projections 

### February 2009

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### USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2009-1, 100 pp. Abstract This report provides projections for the agri cultural sector through 2018. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggr egate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The report assumes that there are no shocks due to abnorma l weather, further outbreak s of plant or animal diseases, or other fact ors affecting global supply and dema nd. Provisions of current law, including the Food, Conservation, and Energy Ac t of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), are assumed to remain in effect through the projections period. The projections are one re presentative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcome s that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2008, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect adjustments to the global economic slowdown and the U.S. recession. Additionally, over the next several years, the livestock sector continues to adjust to higher feed prices seen in 2007 and 2008. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biof uels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU). Although in creases in corn-based ethanol production in the United States are projected to slow, ethanol demand remains hi gh and affects production, use, and prices of farm commodities throughout the se ctor. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for vegetable oils in global markets. Further, once the world economies recover from the current slowdown, steady economic gains support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. As a result, although net farm income initially de clines from the highs of 2007 and 2008, it remains historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels in the latter part of the projections. U.S. retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2011 (particularly meats in 2010 and 2011), but then food prices re turn to the longer te rm relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period. Keywords: Projections, crops, li vestock, biofuel, ethanol, trad e, farm income, food prices.
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### ii USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Contents Page 

### A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections ........................................................................ iii Long-term Projections on the Internet .......................................................................................... . iv Contacts for Long-term Projections............................................................................................. .. iv Acknowledgments................................................................................................................ .......... iv Introduction................................................................................................................... ...................1 Overview of Assumptions and Implications....................................................................................2 Macroeconomic Assumptions...................................................................................................... ....8 Crops..............................................................................................................................................18 Livestock...................................................................................................................... ..................44 U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators: Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Expenditures 

### .........................................54 Agricultural Trade..........................................................................................................................64 List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................100

Features in this Report Page 2008 Farm Act Overview ......................................................................................................... .. 6 Global Economic Slowdown...................................................................................................... 9 Corn-based Ethanol Expans ion Projected To Slow.................................................................. 20 Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks ................................................................................... 66

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 iii A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections
USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presente d in this report are a Departmental consensus on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.
The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, longrun scenario abou t what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation and specific a ssumptions about external conditions.
The report uses as a starting point the shor t-term projections from the November 2008 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Critical long term assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditio ns, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural produ ctivity in the United States and abroad. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. Normal weather is assumed. Also, the report assumes no further outbreaks of animal or plant diseases. Changes in assumptions for any of these items can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.
The projections analysis was conducted by in teragency committees in USDA and reflects a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing the Departmental repor t. The projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Econ omic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; an d the Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service.

### iv USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Long-term Projections on the Internet

The Economic Research Service of USDA has a briefing room for long-term projections at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/projections/ Also, data from the new USDA long-term proj ections are available electronically at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannU sda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192

Contacts for Long-term Projections Questions regarding these proj ections may be directed to:
Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Stre et, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: westcott@ers.usda.gov
Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5190, 1800 M Stre et, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: rtrostle@ers.usda.gov
C. Edwin Young, Economic Research Service, Room 5191, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5336, e-mail: ceyoung@ers.usda.gov David Stallings, World Agricu ltural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: dstallings@oce.usda.gov

Acknowledgments
The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultura l Projections Committee, thank the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributi ons to the long-term projections analysis and to the prepar ation and review of this report.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 1 

# USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018 Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

Introduction

This report provides longrun projec tions for the agricultural sector through 2018. Major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term global economic growth and populat ion trends. Projections cover production and consumption for agricultural commodities, global agricultural tr ade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.
The projections are a conditional scenario with no shocks and are based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomy, agricultural and tr ade policies, the weather, and international developments. The report assumes that provisio ns of current law remain in effect through the projection period. This would include the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Act), the Energy Independence and Securi ty Act of 2007, and the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, for example. The projec tions are not intended to be a Departmental forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a description of what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislati on, with very specific external circumstances. Thus, the projections provide a neutral backdrop , reference scenario that provides a point of departure for discussion of alte rnative farm sector outcomes th at could result under different domestic or international assumptions.
The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2008 and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Normal weather is assumed. Also, the projections assume no further outbr eaks of plant or animal diseases. Short-term projections used as a starting point in this report are from the November 2008 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008.

### 2 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Overview of Assumptions and Implications

Key assumptions underlying the projection s and selected implications include:

Economic Growth

 U.S. and world economic growth reflect near-t erm effects of the current economic crisis followed by a transition back to steady economic gains.

 The global economy is assumed to slow to 1.7-percent growth in 2009 while the U.S. economy declines by 0.5 percent.

 The financial crisis and global economic slowdo wn will constrain U.S. exports in the short to intermediate term.

 Global economic growth is assumed to rebound to a 3.4-percent average growth rate for 2010-18. The U.S. economy resumes growth in 2010 at 2.5 percent, followed by average rates near 3 percent over the rema inder of the projection period.

 The return to broad-based, steady global econo mic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trad e, and U.S. agricultural exports.

 Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly respon sive to income growth in those countries, with movement away from staple foods and increased diversification of diets.

 Growth in export demand contributes to incr eases in agricultural commodity prices and gains in farm cash receipts after 2009.
Population

 Growth in global population is assumed to c ontinue to slow to an average of about 1.1 percent per year over the pr ojection period compared with average annual rates of 1.7 percent in the 1980s and 1.4 percent in the 1990s.

 Population growth rates in most developing count ries remain above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to nearly 84 percent by 2018, up from 78 percent in the 1980s and 80 percent in the 1990s.

 Population gains in developing countries along with increased urbani zation and expansion of the middle class are particularly importa nt for the projected growth in global food demand. Population in developi ng countries, in contrast to that in more developed countries, is dominated by a younger population cohort with larg er and increasingly more diverse food consumption.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 3 The Value of the U.S. Dollar

 The U.S. dollar is assumed to strengthen moderately over 2010-18. Nonetheless, the dollar’s low level relative to the early 2000s re mains a facilitating fact or in projected gains in U.S. agricultural exports.

 The United States will remain competitive in global agricultural markets, although trade competition will continue to be strong. Even with the moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, export gains contribute to increases in cash receipts for U.S. farmers.

Oil Prices

 Much of the large increases in oil prices from late 2002 into 2008 reflected strong demand for crude oil resulting from world economic gains and rapid manuf acturing growth in China, India, and other countries in Asia. The weakening of the U.S. and global economies at the end of 2008 and resulting decline in de mand for petroleum and other energy supplies pushed crude oil prices down more than 70 percent from peak values in mid-2008.

 Crude oil prices are assumed to rebound in 2009 and average about $60 per barrel. Prices are then assumed to increase over the rema inder of the projection period as global economic activity picks up, rising so mewhat faster than the gene ral inflation rate. By the end of the projection period, the refiner acquisitio n cost for crude oil imports is assumed to be near $100 per barrel.

 These increases in crude oil prices influence bo th the costs of production in the agricultural sector as well as the economics of biofuels.
U.S. Agricultural Policy

 Provisions of current law, particularly the Food, Conser vation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), are assumed to remain in effect through the proj ection period. (See box, 2008 Farm Act Overview , pages 6-7, for further discussion.)

 Under the 2008 Farm Act, the maximum acreag e enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was reduced from 39.2 million acres to 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acres on September 30, 2008, this policy change provides some add itional cropland for potential us e in production rather than tightening cropland availability over the projection period.

 Increased cropland availabilit y, resulting from the reduction in the CRP, combined with sustained high commodity prices keep U.S. cropland use high in the projections.

### 4 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 U.S. Biofuels

 The ethanol tax credit was reduced to 45 cents per gallon under the 2008 Farm Act, starting in calendar 2009.

 The biodiesel tax credit was se t at $1.00 per gallon for all feedstocks under the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, thus increasing the credit for biodiesel made from recycled vegetable oil or anim al fats from 50 cents per gallon.

 The projections assume that these tax credits av ailable to blenders of biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) as well as the 54-cent-per-gallon ta riff on imported ethanol used as fuel are extended beyond their currently legislated expira tion dates and remain in effect through the projection period.

 Expansion in the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to continue, although the pace is assumed to slow from the rapid gain s of the past several years.

 Corn is expected to remain the primary f eedstock for U.S. etha nol production during the projection period. Slower annual growth for corn-based ethanol is projected, however, largely reflecting moderate gains assumed in overall gasoline consumption in the United States. Nonetheless, by the end of the pr ojection period, ethanol production accounts for about 35 percent of corn use, and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of annual gasoline consumption.

 Biodiesel production in the Unite d States is assumed to incr ease to 1 billion gallons by 2012. Less than half this volume is assumed to be from domestic first-use vegetable oils, partly due to the equalization of the biodi esel tax credit across all feedstocks.

Livestock and Meat Trade

 The projections assume a gradual rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea. Even with these gains, however, total U.S. beef exports do not return to 2003 levels until 2013.

 The projections assume Canadian cattle and beef from cattle over 30 months of age can be exported to the United States under the conditi ons that they are ag e-verifiable and born after March 1, 1999.

 The projections assume implementation of ma ndatory country of origin labeling (COOL) for beef and veal, pork, lamb, and poultry meat based on the interim final rule published in August 2008. These requirements add costs associ ated with the tracking of livestock and the labeling of meat. Since August 2008, a fina l rule has been published and is currently under review.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 5 I nternational Policy

 Trade projections assume that countries co mply with existing b ilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultura l trade. The report incorporates effects of trade agreements and domestic po licies in place in November 2008.

 Domestic agricultural and trad e policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to evolve along th eir current path, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and commodity analysts. In particul ar, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to continue.
International Biofuels

 The production of biofuels has experienced ra pid growth in a number of countries. The projections assume that the most significant increases in foreign biofuel production over the next decade will be in the European Un ion (EU), Brazil, Argentina, and Canada.

 The projections assume that the EU biofuel ta rget of 5.75 percent of total transportation fuel use by 2010 and mandate of 10 percent by 2020 are only partially met. Nonetheless, growth in biodiesel demand in the EU is a key factor underlying gains in global demand for vegetable oils and oilseeds.

Prices

 Long-term growth in global demand for agri cultural products, in combination with the continued presence of U.S. ethanol demand in the corn sector and EU biodiesel demand for vegetable oils, holds prices for corn, oils eeds, and many other cr ops well above their historical levels, although s eason-average annual prices ar e not projected to reach the record highs seen in the first half of 2008.

 Continued high grain and oilseed prices raise fe ed costs in the livestock sector, leading to reduced U.S. production of total meat and poultry production through 2011 and higher meat prices.

 Sustained biofuel demand and strengthen ing global food demand after the current economic slowdown provide a major impetus for long-term projections of strong farm income.

 Retail food prices rise faster than overall inflation thr ough 2011, partly reflecting higher meat prices (particularly in 2010 and 2011) as the livestock sect or adjusts to increased feed costs. Then consumer food prices in the United States return to the longer term relationship of rising less than the genera l inflation rate over the rema inder of the projection period.

### 6 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 2008 Farm Act Overview The Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008, enacted into law in June 2008, governs the bulk of Federal agriculture and related programs for the next 5 years. Its 15 titles include administrative and funding authorities for programs that cover income a nd commodity price support, farm credit, and risk management; conservation though land retirement, stewardship of land and water resources, and farmland protection; food assistance and agricultural development efforts abroad and promotion of international access to American farm products; f ood stamps, domestic food distribution, and nutrition initiatives; rural community and economic developm ent initiatives; and encouraging production and use of agricultural and rural renewable energy sources. The 2008 Farm Act continues many of the commodity programs from recent farm legislation. The Act provides income support, with new payment and eligibility limits, for wheat, feed grains, cotton, rice, oilseeds, and pulses through direct payments (except pulses), counter-cyclical payments, marketing loan assistance program, and new average crop revenue election (ACRE) payments.

 Direct payment rates are unchanged, but eligible payment acres are reduced from 85 percent of base acres to 83.3 percent for crop years 2009-11.

 Loan rates, specified in the legislation, are unchanged for crop year 2008, but increase for wheat, barley, oats, other oilseeds, and wool for crop years 2010-12. Loan rates for dry peas and lentils are lowered for crop years 2009-12. Large chickpeas become loan eligible in 2009.

 The target price for upland cotton is lowered to 71.25 cents per pound. Target prices increase for wheat, grain sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, and other oilseeds for crop years 2010-12. Target prices are specified for dry peas, lentils, and small chickpeas and large chickpeas beginning with the 2009 crop year, with these crops becoming eligible for counter-cyclical payments.

 The ACRE program is a new market-based, counter-cyclical revenue program beginning in 2009 which incorporates national prices and state- and farm-level yields. This optional program is an alternative to counter-cyclical payments with the election to receive ACRE payments also requiring a 20 percent reduction in direct payments and a 30 percent reduction in the loan rate.

 Sugar loan rates are raised and a new program is added to use surplus sugar for bioenergy production.

 Dairy price support is revised by specifying mandated purchase prices for manufactured dairy products and allowing purchase prices to decline if purchase levels exceed certain levels.

 The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) Program continues, but is modified for the period October 1, 2008 through August 31, 2012. The payment rate percentage applied to the difference between the MILC target price and the Boston milk marketing order Class I price is raised in this period. The quantity of milk eligible for MILC payments for all producers on a single dairy operation is also higher during this period. Add itionally, starting in January 2008, the MILC target price is adjusted when the National Average Dairy Feed Ration Cost exceeds designated levels ($7.35 per hundredweight through August 2012; $9.50 per hundredweight in subsequent months).

 The Act reduces subsidies to insurance companies for selling and servicing crop insurance policies and increases administrative fees paid by farmers for minimum insurance coverage level.

 A new, whole-farm Supplemental Agricultural Disaster Assistance Program provides revenuebased disaster protection to crop producers and disaster assistance for livestock (including aquaculture and honey bees), forage, and tree and nursery crops. New titles provide for horticultural crops and organi c agriculture and for the livestock and poultry sector.

 The Specialty Crop Block Grant Program continues with increased mandatory funding.



### -- Continued

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 7 2008 Farm Act Overview (Continued)

 Livestock mandatory reporting expands and country-of-origin labeling continues, with some additional commodities added.

 New rules governing hog and poultry production contracts and meat and poultry plant food safety are introduced. Conservation provisions emphasize and expand working land conservation and environmental practices, while continuing land retirement and farmland preservation programs.

 Conservation on working land is emphasized by increasing funding for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program and the new Conservation Stew ardship Program (successor to the Conservation Security Program).

 The Conservation Reserve Program acreage cap is reduced to 32 million acres from 39.2 million acres, beginning on October 1, 2009.

 Emphasis on wetland restoration and farmland preservation continues with expansion of Wetland Reserve Program, Farmland Protection Pr ogram, and Grassland Reserve Program. The Trade title repeals several export assistance programs, while continuing and expanding market development programs.

 The Intermediate Export Guarantee Program (GSM-103), Supplier Credit Guarantee Program, and Export Enhancement Program are repealed.

 Required spending on nonemergency food assistance is increased.

 Mandatory funding for McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Program is provided. Support for nutrition programs expands.

 Benefits and eligibility increase for the Food Stamp Program (FSP), renamed the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP ), beginning in 2009. Additional adjustments for inflation are provided.

 The Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program and farmer s’ market and food distribution programs also receive increased funding. Rural development programs funds planning, coordi nation, and implementation of rural community and economic development programs.

 Programs continue to emphasize business and economic development and enhanced infrastructure, especially for health care and communications systems.

 Value-added agricultural activities, including renewable energy and locally and regionally produced agricultural products also receive greater attention. The 2008 Farm Act also includes a number of tax provisions, including several related to biofuels.

 A temporary production tax credit for cellulosic biofuels is provided.

 The tax credit for ethanol blending is reduced to 45 cents per gallon from 51 cents per gallon. This reduction took place at the start of 2009 since the ethanol production trigger was met in 2008.


### For further information on the 2008 Farm Act, see 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side at http://www.ers.usda.gov/FarmBill/2008/Overview.htm

### 8 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

### Macroeconomic Assumptions
Macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect a near-term global economic slowdown due to the current financial crisis, followed by a transition back toward steady growth at longrun sustainable ra tes in 2011 and beyond. Implicit in these assumptions is the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and other major central ba nks around the world taking aggressive action to counter the financial crisis, and governments also being aggressive in providing stimulus to overcome the economic downturn to keep it short-lived (see box, Global Economic Slowdown , page 9). The macroeconomic assumpti ons were completed in October 2008. After averaging 3 percent annually between 2001 and 2008, overall world economic growth is projected to increase only 1.7 percent in 2009. Global growth then is projecte d to average 3.4 percent in 2010 through 2018. The projections assume slowing rates of growth in developed countries and continued strong growth in deve loping countries and countries of the former Soviet Union. The financial crisis has a significant impact on economic growth in the United States. The U.S. economy grows 1.3 percent in 2008, contracts by 0.5 percent in 2009, and resumes growth of only 2.5 percent in 2010. After 2010, U.S. growth moves back toward a sustainable ra te near 3 percent. Nonetheless, the U.S. share of global gross dom estic product (GDP) falls to 25 percent by the end of the projections from 27 percent in 2007. The return of global economic growth after 2009 and continued population gains are expected to boost food demand. The longer term increase s in global purchasi ng power and population, competing against demand for biofuels and other do mestic uses, are import ant factors shaping the projections for world trade, U.S. agricultural ex ports, and for commodity prices. Also supporting the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports is the cu mulative effect of the depreciated U.S. dollar since 2002. The global economic slowdown has dampened infla tion. Even with the U.S. and world economies projected to move back toward stronger, sustai nable growth, global infl ation is projected at relatively low rates, averaging about 3 percent globally through 2018. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board and other major central banks are assumed to continue policies to balance growth against increasing inflation.

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth

Percent

World United States

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 9 Global Economic Slowdown The U.S. recession and the world economic slowdown assumed for 2009 reflect the current global financial crisis. The U.S. housing market downturn, which began in late 2006, spread to the housing finance sector and then into the banking and financial sectors worldwide, significantly affecting the U.S. economy by the spring of 2008. By the third quarter of 2008, effects of the financial crisis had spread to much of the developed world. Numerous policy actions—lowering interest rates by the world’s central banks, targeting activities by various agencies to aid homeowners, providing a fiscal stimulus package, and implementing rescue packag es to support failing financial institutions—were designed to mitigate the size of the economic downturn. Despite these policies, the United States and most developed economies are in recession and economic growth in the developing world is slowing. The global economic slowdown has been severe enough to reverse the sharp rise in oil prices, which likely contributed to the economic slowdown. Crude oil prices, which were near $150 per barrel at their peak in mid-2008, fell to under $50 per barrel by the end of the year. Other commodity prices slid as well. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies except the yen, reflecting a flight from risky assets. U.S. farm operators entered the economic downturn in a strong financial position following a period of record farm incomes and rising farmland values. However, lower prices, in part brought on by the global economic downturn, will reduce U.S. farm income in 2009. Additionally, any declines in off-farm incomes could negatively affect the finances of farm households. Lenders specializing in farm lending are in relatively good financial shape with farm loan default and loss rates only recently creeping up. Small rural banks, which are major providers of farm operating credit, do not appear to have been large investors in the risky securities that have troubled larger banks. Nonetheless, a large share of farm credit comes from these larger banks. The U.S. and world economies are assumed to improve after 2009. Growth prospects in 2010 are for a solid, but not stellar, economic rebound, with the U.S. dollar weakening somewhat and crude oil prices rising. By 2012, the macroeconomic assumptions largely reflect a return to expected long-term trends, with higher U.S. interest rates as the Federal Reserve Board boosts rates to forestall inflation. 

### Macroeconomic Outlook Uncertainty There is significant uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook. The decline in prices for oil and other commodities, low short-term interest rates, and the potential for conditions in credit markets to be eased could bring a shorter and shallower economic slowdown than in the macroeconomic assumptions. Rapid action by policymakers and regulators to address various aspects of the financial and housing crises provides further support for this alternative outcome. However, there is also the possibility of a deeper and longer lasting U.S. recession than assumed. The recent declines in consumer spending, the large overhang of excess housing, and the spillover of the mortgage crisis into other domestic and international financial markets are some of the factors that could slow the economy further. There is also a very small possibility of sustained and deep price deflation. Consistent with this scenario would be a sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven for international financial markets and a sharper and more protracted slowdown in world economic growth going into 2010. This situation, if realized, could have severe short-to-medium term repercussions for farm commodity prices as well as the volume and value of U.S. agricultural exports.

### 10 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDP growth for developed countries, European Union, and Japan

Percent

Developed countries

Japan European Union



### Developed economies are projected to grow at rates almost half a percentage point less than the 1970-2008 historical average, to an average ar ound 2.2 percent in 2009-18. Economic growth rates for the European Union (EU) remain below 2 percent per year in th e projection period, also around a 0.5 percentage point below their historical average. Japa n is projected to have modest growth of 1.25 percent per year on average. As a consequence, both the EU and Japan account for smaller shares of global GDP.

 The EU does not grow as rapidly as the U.S. economy because of lingering structural rigidities, particularly inflexib le labor laws and a very expens ive social security system. Political difficulties also cons train the benefits of economic integration, particularly with continued restrictions on labor mobility between EU countries and a very cumbersome EU decisionmaking process. Unemployment rate s decline from double-digit rates, however, indicating some progress in incr easing employment flexibility.

 Japan continues to face constraints to econom ic growth, largely the result of long-term structural rigidities (such as legal constraints to new busin ess entry), a difficult political process for economic reform, and a rapidl y aging population. Japan’s labor market liberalization partly offsets these constrai nts, aiding productivity growth. Japan’s increasing integration with the other economies of Asia, especial ly China, further mitigates the growth constraints in the Japanese economy. The projections assume sustained economic growth in Japan of just over 1 percen t per year, with the country’s share of world GDP declining to 7.5 percent by 2018, down fr om almost 11 per cent in 1991. While Japan’s projected growth remains relatively low compared with most other countries, it represents a modest improvement from its growth in the 1990s.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 11 -15 -12

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet Union

Percent

Developing Asia

Former Soviet Union Latin America Africa

Economic growth in developing countries is projected to average 5.6 percent annually during 2009-18. These countries will play an increasingly important role in global growth in food demand and will become a more important destination for U.S. agricultural exports. Relatively high income growth, along with large responsiveness of consumption and imports of food and feed to income growth in these countries, underlies this result. As incomes rise in developing countries, consumers generally diversify their diets, moving away from staple foods to include more meat, dairy products, fruits, vegetables, and processed foods (including vegetable oils). These consumption shifts increase import demand for feedstuffs and high-value food products.

 Continued strong growth in China, India, and the rest of Asia make this region an increasingly important part of the global economy, with Asia’s share of world GDP rising to almost 30 percent by the end of the projection period. Relatively high oil prices, by historical standards, assumed in the projections modestly constrain Asia from even higher economic growth since the manufacturing sector in Asian countries is far more dependent on energy for GDP growth than more developed economies. China’s economic growth has been consistently the strongest in Asia, exceeding 10 percent between 2003 and 2007. While some slowing is expected, China’s growth is expected to average more than 7.5 percent over the next decade. India’s projected average economic growth of 7.5 percent per year puts it in the top tier of high-growth countries. Nonetheless, India is still a low-in come country, with real (inflation-adjusted) 2005-based per capita income of $849 in 2008, compared with $2,350 in China. Continued strong income growth is expected to bring India’s real per capita income to more than $1,500 by 2018 and is expected to move a significant number of people out of poverty. Projected growth for Southeast Asia exceeds 4.9 percent fo r the next decade while growth in developing countries of East Asia is projected to be 5.5 percent. Although large, these projected growth rates are below the very strong average economic growth in these regions in 1971-2008.

 Long-term growth of 4 percent is projected for Latin America. An overall improvement in macroeconomic policies has attracted foreign capital inflows (particularly foreign direct investment, notably to Chile, Colombia, and Brazil) and sustained growth in the region.

 Economic growth in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to average 5.0 percent annually for the next decade as Russia, Ukraine, and other FSU countries benefit from their shift to more market-oriented economies. Russia and other energy-rich FSU countries also benefit from relatively high oil prices.

### 12 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-08 2009-18 Population growth continues to slow

Percent

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

World
United States Former Soviet Union Africa Middle East

Asia Latin America Developing countries



### A continued slowing of population growth aroun d the world limits increases in food and agricultural demand over the next decade. World population growth declines from an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the 1980s to an average of just over 1.1 percent pe r year for the pr ojection period.

 Developed countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.35 percent over 2009-18. Projected annual average population growth rate for the United States is the highest among developed countries, at 0.9 percent, in part reflecting large immigration.

 Overall, population in the former Soviet Union is projected to decline moderately. Population growth rates in developing economies are projected to be sharply lower than rates in the 1980s and 1990s, but remain above those in developed c ountries and the FSU. As a result, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to nearly 84 percent by 2018, compared to 78 percent in th e 1980s and 80 percent in the 1990s.

 China and India together account for more than one-third of the world’s population. China’s population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.6 percent in 2009-18. The population growth rate in India, the world’s second most populous nation, is projected to decline from 2.1 percent to 1.5 percent per year between the same periods.

 Brazil’s population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year in 1981-90 to 1.1 percent annually in 2009-18. Sub-Sahara n Africa’s population growth rate declines from 2.9 percent to 2.3 percent per year between the same periods, leaving this impoverished region with the highest population growth rate in the world.

 There are a number of countries with d eclining populations, incl uding Japan, Russia, Ukraine, and countries in Western and Centra l Europe. Additionally, several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to have declining populations resulting from the AIDS epidemic, including the Republic of South Africa.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 13 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar projected to stabilize 1/ Index values, 2005=100

1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights, based on 192 countries. 

### The U.S. dollar depreciated 20 percent between Fe bruary 2002 and April 2008, a facilitating factor in the growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Since April 2008, the U.S. dollar has generally appreciated. On an annual basis, the U.S. dollar is projected to strength en moderately from 2010 to 2018. Despite this projected a ppreciation, the dollar’s low level relative to the early 2000s is likely to continue to positively impact U.S. exports.

 Strong GDP growth in the United States relativ e to the EU and Japan will tend to reverse the appreciation of the euro to the U.S. do llar and offsets some of the trade-driven appreciation of the yen.

 China initiated a process for appreciating its currency in 2005 af ter a long period of maintaining a fixed nominal exchange rate and an undervalued currency. The projections assume that China allows its real exchange rate to continue to apprec iate, but at decreasing rates. The appreciation of Ch ina’s currency also leads to so me appreciation of other Asian currencies. These exchange rate developments will strengthen U.S. agricultural exports to Asian countries.

 Among agricultural products, U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products tend to be the most sensitive to swings in the U.S. dollar’s value, because they face more global trade competition.

### 14 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. crude oil prices
Dollars per barrel

Refiner acquisition cost, crude oil imports

Refiner acquisition cost, adjusted for inflation



### Crude oil prices rose sharply from late 2002 into 2008, much of which reflec ted increased crude oil demand due to a robust world economic growth and rapid manufacturing growth in China, India, and other countries in Asia. At its peak in July 2008, the refi ner acquisition cost of crude oil imports reached $147 a barrel. The weakening of the U.S. and global economies toward the end of 2008 and resulting decline in demand for petroleu m and other energy supplies pushed crude oil prices down more than 70 per cent from the peak values.

 Crude oil prices are assumed to rebound in 2009 and average about $60 per barrel. Prices are then assumed to increase over the rema inder of the projection period as global economic activity picks up. From 2010 through 2018, crude oil pri ces are expected to rise somewhat faster than the general inflation ra te. By the end of th e projection period, the refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is projected to be near $100 per barrel.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 15 Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP, billion dollars Nominal 13,808 14,295 14,508 15,212 16,013 16,840 17,710 18,624 19,586 20,597 21,661 22,780 Real 2000 chained dollars 11,524 11,674 11,615 11,929 12,287 12,643 13,010 13,387 13,775 14,175 14,586 15,009 percent change 2.0 1.3 -0.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Disposable personal income Nominal (billions) 10,171 10,516 10,737 11,263 11,838 12,441 13,076 13,743 14,444 15,180 15,954 16,768 percent change 5.5 3.4 2.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Nominal per capita, dollars 33,666 34,486 34,883 36,255 37,757 39,324 40,959 42,666 44,447 46,306 48,245 50,270 percent change 4.5 2.4 1.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Real (billion 2000 chained) 8,644 8,748 8,757 9,002 9,263 9,531 9,808 10,092 10,385 10,686 10,996 11,315 percent change 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Real per capita, 2000 dollars 28,615 28,686 28,448 28,976 29,544 30,126 30,722 31,332 31,957 32,597 33,251 33,921 percent change 1.8 0.3 -0.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2
Consumer spending Real (billion 2000 chained) 8,253 8,327 8,285 8,493 8,730 8,975 9,226 9,484 9,750 10,023 10,304 10,592 percent change 2.8 0.9 -0.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Inflation measures G D P price index, chained, 2000=100 119.8 122.5 124.9 127.5 130.3 133.2 136.1 139.1 142.2 145.3 148.5 151.8 percent change 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 CPI-U, 1982-84=100 207.3 216.3 221.0 226.5 232.2 238.0 244.0 250.1 256.3 262.7 269.3 276.0 percent change 2.9 4.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 PPI, finished goods 1982=100 166.6 179.9 181.7 185.3 188.5 191.3 194.2 196.9 199.7 202.5 205.3 208.2 percent change 3.9 8.0 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 PPI, crude goods 1982=100 207.1 254.7 229.3 236.1 242.0 246.9 251.1 254.8 258.4 261.8 265.2 268.6 percent change 12.1 23.0 -10.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
Crude oil price, $/barrel EIA refiner acq. cost, imports 67.1 96.3 61.0 70.7 75.5 79.0 82.0 85.1 88.3 91.5 94.9 98.4 percent change 14.0 43.5 -36.7 15.9 6.8 4.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Real 2000 chained dollars 56.0 78.7 48.8 55.4 57.9 59.3 60.2 61.2 62.1 63.0 63.9 64.8 percent change 11.0 40.4 -37.9 13.5 4.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Labor compensation per hou r nonfarm business, 1992=100 175.3 182.0 187.8 193.4 198.6 204.0 209.5 215.2 221.0 226.9 233.1 239.4 percent change 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Interest rates, percent 3-month Treasury bills 4.4 1.5 0.9 2.0 3.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 3-month commercial paper 5.1 2.4 2.9 2.5 4.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Bank prime rate 8.1 5.2 4.1 5.5 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 10-year Treasury bonds 4.6 3.7 3.6 4.0 5.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Moody's Aaa bond yield index 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Labor and population

Civilian unemployment rate, percent 4.7 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Nonfarm payroll emp., millions 137.7 137.8 137.6 138.5 139.5 140.6 141.9 143.2 144.4 145.7 147.1 148.4 percent change 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Total population, millions 302.1 304.9 307.8 310.7 313.5 316.4 319.2 322.1 325.0 327.8 330.7 333.6 percent change 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Domestic macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. CPI-U is the consumer price index for all urban consumers. PPI is the producer price index. EIA is the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.

### 16 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-2018 Bil. 2005 dollars Percent 2005 dollars Percent change World 48,327 100.0 7,292 3.8 2.7 1.7 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 Less United States 35,277 72.6 5,576 4.5 3.2 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.5 3.3 3.4

North America 14,325 30.1 42,878 2.1 1.2 -0.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.5

Canada 1,274 2.7 38,688 2.7 0.7 0.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.5 United States 13,050 27.4 43,337 2.0 1.3 -0.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.5

Latin America 3,027 6.2 5,293 5.2 4.2 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.4 4.0

Mexico 830 1.7 7,638 3.3 2.2 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.5 2.4 3.5 Caribbean & Central America 312 0.6 3,919 4.2 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.8 3.1 3.2 4.4 South America 1,885 3.8 4,913 6.3 5.3 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.0 3.9 4.2

Argentina 205 0.4 5,118 8.6 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.3 3.7 Brazil 1,016 2.2 5,526 5.4 5.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 2.6 3.5 4.0 Other 609 1.2 4,065 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.3 4.6 4.7
Europe 15,252 31.8 28,836 2.9 1.4 0.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0

European Union-27 14,452 30.2 29,470 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 Other Europe 800 1.7 21,234 3.7 2.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0

Former Soviet Union 1,202 2.4 4,334 8.5 6.2 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.8 -4.0 7.0 4.5

Russia 922 1.8 6,521 8.1 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.5 -3.6 6.5 4.5 Ukraine 97 0.2 2,102 7.7 5.0 2.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 -7.7 7.3 4.2 Other 183 0.4 2,037 11.2 8.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.9 -3.8 9.8 4.8

Asia and Oceania 11,980 24.3 3,239 5.9 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.6 4.5

East Asia 8,875 18.1 5,711 5.6 4.3 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 4.3 4.2

China 2,873 5.5 2,173 11.9 9.8 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.7 10.5 10.1 7.6 Hong Kong 197 0.4 28,276 6.4 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.9 4.4 Japan 4,468 9.4 35,060 2.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 Korea 933 1.9 19,343 5.0 3.9 3.0 4.0 4.7 4.4 6.2 4.6 4.0 Taiwan 389 0.8 17,035 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.3 6.5 4.3 4.0 Southeast Asia 1,073 2.2 1,860 6.4 5.4 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.9

Indonesia 335 0.7 1,428 6.3 6.0 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.4 5.2 4.8 Malaysia 152 0.3 6,116 6.3 6.0 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.0 7.2 5.1 4.8 Philippines 118 0.2 1,250 7.3 4.4 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.3 3.1 4.7 4.6 Thailand 206 0.4 3,173 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.9 Vietnam 61 0.1 720 8.4 6.7 6.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.4 7.6 7.4 South Asia 1,144 2.3 747 8.5 7.2 6.4 6.9 7.8 7.6 5.2 7.0 7.2

Bangladesh 61 0.1 404 6.5 6.2 5.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 4.8 5.7 5.9 India 906 1.8 802 9.0 7.5 6.5 7.3 8.3 8.0 5.5 7.4 7.5 Pakistan 129 0.3 760 6.4 5.7 6.0 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.0 5.5 5.4 Oceania 888 1.8 24,972 4.1 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1

Australia 753 1.6 36,271 4.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 New Zealand 105 0.2 25,514 3.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.0

Middle East 1,406 2.9 5,286 4.9 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.8

Iran 58 0.1 884 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.0 5.9 4.6 Iraq 142 0.3 5,178 5.1 6.8 10.5 8.1 7.7 6.3 9.5 12.3 6.7 Saudi Arabia 334 0.7 12,112 3.4 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 2.6 4.3 5.3 Turkey 381 0.8 5,352 4.5 3.9 3.2 4.0 4.6 4.9 3.6 4.7 4.5 Other 491 1.0 6,601 6.1 6.3 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.8 5.0 4.1

Africa 1,135 2.3 1,194 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 2.0 4.9 5.2

North Africa 348 0.7 2,124 4.9 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.0 3.5 4.6 5.1

Algeria 105 0.2 3,148 3.4 3.6 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.0 1.7 4.1 5.0 Egypt 112 0.2 1,391 7.2 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.7 Morocco 57 0.1 1,684 2.2 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 2.4 4.6 5.0 Tunisia 31 0.1 3,044 6.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 4.8 4.9 5.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 787 1.6 1,000 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.4 1.3 5.0 5.2

Republic of South Africa 245 0.5 5,070 5.1 3.6 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.0 1.8 3.9 4.6 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 541 1.1 733 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 1.1 5.6 5.5 Average Share of world GDP 2005-2007 Region/country

International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. Per capita income, 2007 GDP, 2007

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 17 Table 3. Population growth assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-2018 Millions Percent change
World 1 6,628 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 Less United States 6,326 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1

North America 334 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8

Canada 33 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 United States 301 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9

Latin America 572 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2

Mexico 109 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 Caribbean & Central America 80 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 South America 384 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1

Argentina 40 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 Brazil 194 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 Other 150 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.3
Europe 529 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1

European Union-27 490 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 Other Europe 38 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3

Former Soviet Union 277 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1

Russia 141 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 Ukraine 46 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 Other 90 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7

Asia and Oceania 3,699 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1

East Asia 1,554 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5

China 1,322 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 Hong Kong 7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 Japan 127 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 Korea 48 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 Taiwan 23 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 Southeast Asia 577 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.1

Indonesia 235 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 Malaysia 25 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 Philippines 94 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 Thailand 65 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 Vietnam 85 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.0 South Asia 1,532 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6

Bangladesh 150 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 India 1,130 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 Pakistan 169 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 Oceania 36 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3

Australia 21 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 New Zealand 4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9

Middle East 266 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6

Iran 65 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 Iraq 27 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.3 Saudi Arabia 28 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 3.7 2.5 1.5 Turkey 71 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.9 Other 74 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.5

Africa 951 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.1

North Africa 164 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4

Algeria 33 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.1 Egypt 80 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 Morocco 34 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 Tunisia 10 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 787 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3

Republic of South Africa 48 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 1.6 1.0 -0.1 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 738 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 Average Population

in 2007 Region/country

1/ Totals for the world and world less United States include countries not otherwise listed in the table. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. August 2008.

### 18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

### Crops
Near-term weakness in the global economy dimini shes demand growth for crops over the next several years. However, steady ec onomic growth assumed later in the projections provides a more favorable demand setting. Although corn-based et hanol production in the United States is projected to slow, the large expansion in recent y ears keeps this use of corn high. In combination, these factors support longer run increases in glob al consumption and trade, with prices, although lower than in early 2008, remaini ng at historically high levels.
Projections for field crops refl ect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. An important change in the 2008 Farm Act was the reducti on in the maximum acreage enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Rather than the previous cap on enrollment of 39.2 million acres, the new farm legislation sets the maxi mum at 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acre s on September 30, 2008, this policy change provides some additional cropland for potential use in pr oduction rather than tightening cropland availability over the projection period.
Sustained high prices prompted by strong demand combined with reduced CRP enrollment keep U.S. cropland use high in the projections. Alth ough declining somewhat from the high plantings in 2008 of over 252 million acres, projected plantings for the 8 major field crops remain near 250 million acres over the next 10 years.

225 250 275 300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, upland cotton, and soybeans.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 19 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Million acres

Corn

Wheat Soybeans



### Plantings of different crops are in fluenced by expected net returns. Net returns are determined by market prices, yields, and production costs, with returns augmented by marketing loan benefits when prices are low. Producer planting decisions are also affected by revenue protection available through the Federal Crop Insurance program and the new Average Crop Re venue Election (ACRE) program, which starts in 2009 under the 2008 Farm Act.

 A gradual shift to corn away from other crops reflects the high levels of domestic cornbased ethanol production and gains in exports that keep corn dema nd and producer returns strong. Following a decline in 2008, corn ac reage increases to 90 million acres by 2011 and remains at or above that level ove r the remainder of the projection period.

 Soybean plantings decline over the next severa l years, but remain above 70 million acres as net returns remain favorable.

 Wheat plantings decline from the high level of 2008 as producer retu rns are lower. Wheat acreage falls below 60 million ac res in the longer run as weak demand growth reduces the crop’s competitiveness for land relative to other crops.

### 20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Corn-based Ethanol Expansion Projected To Slow
Ethanol production in the United St ates has increased rapidly over th e past several years, from less than 3 billion gallons in 2003 to over 9 billion ga llons in 2008. Most ethanol production in the United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with close to a third of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production in the 2008/09 corn crop year.
These projections assume the tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff on imported fuel ethanol remain in effect. While expansion in the et hanol industry continues, smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projecte d, largely reflecting moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States. By the end of the projecti on period, ethanol production accounts for about 35 percent of corn use and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of annual gasoline consumption. The continued pres ence of ethanol demand in the corn sector, in combination with other long-term factors, holds prices for corn and many other crops well above their historical levels, although s eason-average annual prices are not projected to reach the record highs seen in the first half of 2008.

0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. corn: Use for ethanol production

Billion bushels

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Ethanol FSI less ethanol 1/ Exports Feed & residual U.S. corn use

Billion bushels

1/ Food, seed, and industrial use less ethanol.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 21 0 2 4 6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. corn: Feed use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed use

Exports Ethanol



### Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, largely reflecting increases in corn used in the production of ethanol. Global econo mic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn exports.

 Continued increases are projected for corn us ed to produce ethanol over the next 10 years, although the pace slows from the rapid gains of th e past several years. Projected gains after 2009/10 are largely in line with moderate expect ed increases in overall gasoline usage in the United States.

 Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up and growth in availability of distillers grai ns slows with the reduced pace of corn-based ethanol expansion.

 Gains in food and industrial uses of corn (oth er than for ethanol production) are projected to be smaller than increases in population. Consumer dietary concer ns and other changes in tastes and preferences limit increases in the combined use of corn for high fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose to about half the rate of population gain. Starch use initially declines due to the slowing U.S. econo my, but grows moderately thereafter.

 U.S. corn exports rise in response to str onger global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production, with the U.S. share of global corn trade holding in the 55-60 percent range.

### 22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports



### Overall demand in the U.S. wheat sector gr ows slowly through the projection period.

 Domestic demand for wheat refl ects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is projected to show moderate gains, gene rally in line with population increases.

 Feed use of wheat, a lower value use of th e crop, declines through the projection period from the relatively high levels of 2008/09.

 U.S. wheat exports increase slowly over the projection period as competition from the European Union (EU), Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the Black Sea region limits further gains. In particular, wheat prices ar e projected at levels high enough that the EU can export wheat without subsid ies, thus permitting higher EU exports. Although the U.S. market share initially increases from 22 percent in 2008/09, it falls over the latter part of the projections to about 21 percent by 2018/19.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 23 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports



### Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise slow ly. U.S. soybean exports remain high but with little growth as more soybeans are processed domestically.

 Declines in the livestock sector initially reduce demand for soybean meal for livestock feed, thereby lowering domestic soybean crus h in the near term. However, once meat production gains resume, soybean crush will follow. Then, longrun growth in domestic soybean crush is mostly driven by incr easing domestic soybean meal demand.

 U.S. soybean exports hold fairly flat near 1.2 billion bushels. While th is is a historically high level of exports, competition from South America limits U.S. exports from further growth. Consequently, the U.S. market shar e of global soybean trade declines from 40 percent in 2009/10 to about 30 percent at the end of the projections.

 Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for the growing U.S. livestock sector, lead to onl y small gains in U.S. soybean meal exports from 2009/10-2018/19, reducing the U.S. export shar e in global soybean meal trade. U.S soybean oil exports similarly face incr easing competition from South America.

### 24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans
Dollars per bushel

Corn Wheat Soybeans



### Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and s oybeans fall from the very high levels seen in 2007/08 and 2008/09 that reflected a numb er of short-term factors. However, prices are projected to remain historically high due to the influen ce of continuing longer term factors, including structural shifts that dr ive demand for these crops.

 Corn prices initially fall from their high 2008/09 level as increases in ethanol production slow and corn stocks build. In the longer run, corn prices remain higher than their pre2006 levels due to continued demand for corn to produce ethanol as well as growth in feed use and exports.

 Land-use competition from corn keeps soybean acreage from rising and holds soybean prices high throughout the projections.

 As for other crops, wheat prices decline from current levels in the early years of the projections, although they remain hi storically high. Price increases in the latter years of the projections are moderate as yield gains mos tly offset demand increases (despite falling acreage), keeping stocks relatively stable.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 25 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. rice: Domestic use and exports
Million hundredweight

Domestic use

Exports



### Continued expansion in domestic food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice exports increase as well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade.

 Domestic use of rice is projected to grow so mewhat faster than population growth. Imports of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the projections.

 U.S. rice exports are projected to increas e as the U.S. price difference over Asian competitors falls, increasing U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Exports of rough rice to Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. export expansion.

 Stocks of rice gradually increase in the proj ection period, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio at 11-12 percent.

 Global rice prices fall over the next several year s from recent highs. Over the latter part of the projections, global prices increase a bout 2.5 percent per year, approaching $11 per hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection pe riod. These price increases largely reflect tightening global stocks due to slow yield growth and little ability to expand area in most producing countries. This effect is partially offset by declining global per capita disappearance, largely due to dietary sh ifts away from staple foods in Asia as incomes rise.

 U.S. rice prices follow a similar pattern to gl obal prices, initially declining from the high levels of 2008/09 before rising in the latter ye ars of the projections. By the end of the projection period, U.S. rice prices in crease to $12 per hundredweight.

### 26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use Exports



### U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to decline in the projections while upland cotton exports rise after 2010/11.

 The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to repr esent less than one-fourth of total use. Underlying this projection, appare l imports by the United States increase over the next 10 years, reducing domestic a pparel production and lowering the apparel industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States.

 U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to decline through 2010/11, reflecting a reduction in acreage and production and diminished avai lability of stocks. Exports then grow moderately, accounting for over three-fourth s of U.S. cotton use by the end of the projection period. As a consequence, while the U.S. cotton trade share initially falls below 30 percent, it then rebounds to nearly 34 percent by the end of the projection period.

 Cotton stocks decline in the first several years of the projections as so me acreage shifts to other crops. As projected cotton prices strengthen after 2009/10, improved net returns provide economic incentives fo r cotton acreage to rise, and st ocks increase through the end of the projections.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 27 Two primary determinants of the U.S. sugar pr ojections are implementation of the sugar and energy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and increased imports of sugar from Mexico.

 The 2008 Farm Act increased the raw sugar loan rate from 18 cents per pound in the 2008 crop year to 18.25 cents per pound in the 2009 crop y ear, to 18.50 cents per pound in the 2010 crop year, and to 18.75 cents per pound in the 2011 and 2012 crop years. The refined beet sugar loan rate is specified to equal 128.5 percent of the raw cane sugar loan rate. Marketing allotments for sugar are set annually at a leve l not less than 85 per cent of estimated sugar deliveries for domestic human consumption.

 Higher support prices help to keep sugar competitive with a lternative crops. Beet sugar production averages 5.089 million short tons, raw value (STRV) per year over the projections, while cane sugar production averages 3.822 million ST RV. Both of these projections are about 9 percent higher than production in the 6-year period covered by the 2002 Farm Act. Higher support prices also help to pres erve processing capacity. Beet processing capacity is projected to increase 3.3 percent in the Red River Valley of the Northern Plains and 2.2 percent in the Pacific Northwest, while capacity in the Gr eat Lakes and Great Plains regions are down marginally. Cane processing is about the same at the end of the projec tion period as it was at the beginning. (The proposed sale of sugarcan e land by the U.S. Sugar Corporation in Florida was not included in these projections.)

 The 2008 Farm Act also introduced the Feedstoc k Flexibility Program, which requires the diversion of sugar from food use to ethanol produ cers, if needed, to k eep sugar prices above levels at which sugar processors might otherw ise forfeit sugar under loan to the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Consequently, there ar e no sugar loan forfeitures projected because of USDA purchases of sugar under this program. These purchases are projected to begin in 2013/14, with the largest projected purchases in 2014/15. Purchase levels are then somewhat lower over the remaining years of the projec tions. From 2013/14 through the end of the projection period, U.S. sugar pr ices are at the minimum leve l to avoid forfeiture—about 21.30 cents per pound for raw sugar (No. 16 NY contract). 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. sugar stocks

Million short tons

Crop year Total stocks

CCC surplus disbursements

### 28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 4

2000 2005 2010 2015 Other imports TRQ impor ts U.S. sugar imports

Million short tons

Crop year


### Increased U.S. imports of sugar from Mexico are a result of increased us e of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in Mexico and duty-free sweetene r trade (sugar and HFCS) between the United States and Mexico. After a phas e-in period, HFCS use by Mexico’s beverage industry is assumed to be 75 percent of total sw eetener demand by that industry.

 Although there are fluctuations in sugar exports from Mexico to the United States through 2014/15, on average these exports increase by 159 ,000 STRV per year. After this period, Mexican sugar consumption increases annually by about 50,000 tons (resulting in per capita consumption rising only slightly ) and Mexican sugar e xports to the United States drop by a corresponding amount.

 Raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQ s) are established at the beginning of the marketing year at the minimum levels required to comply with international trade agreements approved by the U.S. Congress. There are no pr ojections of any midyear increases in TRQs throughout the projection period.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 29 Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $71.6 billion in calendar year 2018, up from $58 billion in 2008. U.S. horticultural trade continues to become increasingly important, both in terms of the export share of production and the import share of consumption.

 Within horticultural products, vegetables and melons continue to rank first in farm sales value over both fruits and nuts and greenhouse and nursery crops. Annual growth over the next 10 years is expected to be fastest for fruits and tree nuts, at 2.6 percent, followed by vegetables at 2.0 percent, and nursery crops at 1.6 percent.

 The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise annually at 0.4 percent. Total vegetable production volume is projected to expand at 0.6 percent annually and fruit production is forecast to decline on average by 0.1 percent in the next decade. The gradual increases in U.S. vegetable production volume hold gains in producer prices for vegetables at an annual 1.3 percent rate through the next decade. Combined with average price increases of 2.7 percent for fruits and nuts, farm produce prices are estimated to increase by 1.9 percent annually in the projection period.

 The average growth of U.S. horticultural import value is forecast at 3.7 percent from fiscal year (FY) 2009 to 2018. The value of exports is forecast to gr ow at 3 percent, with both fruits and vegetables averaging 2.8 percent in the next 10 years. Import growth and export growth of fresh-market vegetables and fruits exceed that of their processed products. The U.S. trade deficit in horticulture crops and products increases from $14 billion in FY 2008 to more than $21 billion in FY 2018. Of the total $28 billion U.S. exports of horticultural products in FY 2018, fruits and nuts contribute $12.8 billion and vegetables represent $6.5 billion. Total imports of $50.5 billion in FY 2018 include $16 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $12 billion of vegetables and vegetable products.



###  Imports will increasingly supplement the domestic s upply of horticulture crops and products. The share of imports in U.S. consumption of horticulture crops and products (based on dollar value) is projected to climb from 48 percent in 2008 to 54 percent by FY 2018. Horticultural exports are projected to increase their share of U.S. production value from 36 percent in FY 2008 to 39 percent in FY 2018. The import and export shares of fru its and nuts are about twice as large as the corresponding import and export shares of vegetables. 0 10 20 30 40 50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Value of horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year

### 30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million acres

Corn 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 Sorghum 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Barley 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Oats 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Wheat 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 Upland cotton 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Soybeans 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5

Subtotal 24.8 23.5 23.0 21.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.6 Other 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4

Total 36.8 34.8 34.0 31.9 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.0 32.0 Crop allocation Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018

Target price 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018
Dollars 1
Corn 0.28 1.95 1.95 2.63 2.63 2.35 2.35 Sorghum 0.35 1.95 1.95 2.57 2.63 2.22 2.28 Barley 0.24 1.85 1.95 2.24 2.63 2.00 2.39 Oats 0.024 1.33 1.39 1.44 1.79 1.416 1.766 Wheat 0.52 2.75 2.94 3.92 4.17 3.40 3.65 Rice 2.35 6.50 6.50 10.50 10.50 8.15 8.15 Upland cotton 0.0667 0.52 0.52 0.7125 0.7125 0.6458 0.6458 Soybeans 0.44 5.00 5.00 5.80 6.00 5.36 5.56 1/ Units are dollars per bushel except for upland cotton (per pound) and rice (per hundredweight). Direct payment rate Marketing assistance loan rate Counter-cyclical trigger

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 31 Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million acres Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 Sorghum 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 Barley 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Oats 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Wheat 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5 Rice 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Upland cotton 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Soybeans 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 Total 247.5 252.6 249.2 249.3 250.5 249.6 249.3 248.8 248.4 249.0 249.1 249.1
Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3 Sorghum 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 Barley 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Oats 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Wheat 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6 Rice 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 Upland cotton 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Soybeans 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 Total 226.3 231.4 227.6 227.8 229.0 228.0 227.7 227.2 226.9 227.6 227.7 227.7

### 32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Yields 1 Corn 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0 Sorghum 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 Barley 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0 Oats 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8 Wheat 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7 Rice 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 Upland cotton 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 Soybeans 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5

Production 2 Corn 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 Sorghum 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 Barley 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 Oats 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wheat 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 Rice 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 Upland cotton 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 Soybeans 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260

Exports 2 Corn 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 Sorghum 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 Barley 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Oats 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Wheat 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 Rice 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 Upland cotton 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 Soybeans 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200 Soybean meal 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750

Ending stocks 2 Corn 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 Sorghum 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Barley 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 Oats 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 Wheat 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 Rice 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 Upland cotton 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 Soybeans 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 238

Prices 3 Corn 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Sorghum 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 Barley 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 Oats 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 Wheat 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 Rice 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04 Upland cotton 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635 Soybeans 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80 Soybean oil 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 Soybean meal 335.9 285.0 260.0 255.0 252.5 251.0 246.0 249.0 250.5 250.5 250.5 252.0 1/ Bushels per acre except for upland cotton and rice (pounds per acre). 2/ Million bushels except for upland cotton (thousand bales), rice (million hundredweight), and soybean meal (thousand tons). 3/ Dollars per bushel except for upland cotton and soybean oil (per pound), rice (per hundredweight), and soybean meal (per to n).

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 33 Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 Harvested acres 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 1,304 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 Production 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 Imports 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Supply 14,398 13,659 13,824 14,024 14,374 14,684 14,949 15,174 15,354 15,599 15,849 16,109

Feed & residual 5,974 5,300 5,300 5,350 5,400 5,450 5,525 5,600 5,675 5,725 5,775 5,850 Food, seed, & industrial 4,364 5,335 5,520 5,620 5,750 5,885 5,995 6,105 6,190 6,275 6,360 6,445 Ethanol for fuel 3,026 4,000 4,200 4,300 4,425 4,550 4,650 4,750 4,825 4,900 4,975 5,050 Domestic use 10,338 10,635 10,820 10,970 11,150 11,335 11,520 11,705 11,865 12,000 12,135 12,295 Exports 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 Total use 12,774 12,535 12,820 12,995 13,200 13,410 13,620 13,830 14,015 14,175 14,335 14,520
Ending stocks 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 9.0 7.8 7.9 8.9 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.9
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 226 301 308 305 309 312 316 319 322 326 330 334 Per bushel 1.50 1.95 1.96 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 408 376 320 315 303 291 287 299 311 315 319 323 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.

### 34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 Harvested acres 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 32 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 Production 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 Imports 000000000000 Supply 537 518 503 488 488 483 478 473 473 473 473 468

Feed & residual 172 240 225 210 205 200 185 170 160 150 140 125 Food, seed, & industrial 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Domestic 207 310 295 280 275 270 255 240 230 220 210 195 Exports 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 Total use 484 450 435 420 420 420 415 410 410 410 410 405
Ending stocks 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Stocks/use ratio, percent 11.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.2 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.6
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 132 166 159 160 163 166 168 170 172 174 177 179 Per bushel 1.77 2.64 2.48 2.50 2.55 2.59 2.62 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.80
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 171 73 65 61 54 46 40 41 42 40 38 35 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 35 Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Harvested acres 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 69 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 Production 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 Imports 32 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Supply 312 333 323 323 327 331 335 339 342 345 348 356

Feed & residual 34 80 70 70 70 75 75 75 80 80 80 85 Food, seed, & industrial 168 160 160 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 162 163 Domestic 203 240 230 231 231 236 236 237 242 242 242 248 Exports 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Total use 244 265 255 256 256 261 261 262 267 267 267 273
Ending stocks 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 Stocks/use ratio, percent 27.9 25.7 26.7 26.2 27.7 26.8 28.4 29.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 30.4
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 Loan rate 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 111 141 141 141 143 145 147 149 150 152 154 156 Per bushel 1.84 2.22 2.15 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 132 177 141 134 124 118 115 119 123 123 124 124 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley.

### 36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Harvested acres 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8
Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 51 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 Production 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 Imports 123 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Supply 265 260 257 259 260 261 262 262 262 262 261 260

Feed & residual 121 120 115 115 115 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 Food, seed, & industrial 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 Domestic 196 195 190 191 191 196 197 197 197 198 198 198 Exports 333333333333 Total use 199 198 193 194 194 199 200 200 200 201 201 201

Ending stocks 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 Stocks/use ratio, percent 33.7 31.3 33.2 33.5 34.0 31.2 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.3 29.9 29.4

Prices (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 Loan rate 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 82 106 107 107 109 110 112 113 114 116 118 119 Per bushel 1.34 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.77 1.79

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 78 78 52 50 45 42 38 40 40 39 39 38 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 37 Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5 Harvested acres 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6
Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7
Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks 456 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 Production 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 Imports 113 100 100 105 105 110 110 115 115 120 120 125 Supply 2,635 2,905 2,913 2,946 2,990 3,005 3,012 3,030 3,020 3,021 3,028 3,046

Food 948 960 965 974 983 992 1,001 1,010 1,019 1,028 1,037 1,046 Seed 88 82 82 82 82 81 81 80 80 80 80 80 Feed & residual 30 260 250 245 235 235 235 225 225 225 225 225 Domestic 1,066 1,302 1,297 1,301 1,300 1,308 1,317 1,315 1,324 1,333 1,342 1,351 Exports 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 Total use 2,330 2,302 2,297 2,326 2,350 2,358 2,367 2,390 2,399 2,408 2,417 2,426
Ending stocks 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.1 26.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.6
Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 Loan rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 97 133 141 125 127 129 130 132 134 135 137 139 Per bushel 2.39 2.97 3.28 2.89 2.91 2.93 2.95 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.02 3.04
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 166 185 111 118 113 106 104 108 111 110 110 110 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat.

### 38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Soybeans

Area (million acres): Planted 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 Harvested 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5 Supply (million bushels) Beginning stocks, September 1 574 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 Production 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260 Imports 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total supply 3,260 3,133 3,320 3,362 3,361 3,351 3,370 3,380 3,404 3,432 3,470 3,502 Disposition (million bushels) Crush 1,801 1,745 1,720 1,735 1,750 1,770 1,790 1,810 1,830 1,850 1,875 1,895 Seed and residual 92 162 168 166 165 166 166 166 167 167 168 169 Exports 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200 Total disposition 3,055 2,928 3,063 3,101 3,115 3,116 3,136 3,151 3,172 3,197 3,233 3,264 Carryover stocks, August 31 Total ending stocks 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 238 Stocks/use ratio, percent 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3 Prices (dollars per bushel) Loan rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Soybean price, farm 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80 Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre 105 130 132 132 134 135 136 138 139 140 141 143 Per bushel 2.51 3.32 3.10 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns 316 257 245 244 247 247 245 252 257 259 262 266
Soybean oil (million pounds) Beginning stocks, October 1 3,085 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 Production 20,568 19,895 19,610 19,795 19,985 20,230 20,480 20,725 20,970 21,220 21,525 21,775 Imports 65 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Total supply 23,718 22,416 21,686 21,651 21,866 22,136 22,466 22,751 23,041 23,291 23,581 23,806 Domestic disappearance 18,272 18,100 18,000 18,100 18,350 18,550 18,750 18,950 19,150 19,375 19,600 19,850 For methyl ester 1 2,983 3,100 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 Exports 2,975 2,300 1,900 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,850 1,950 2,000 2,100 2,100 Total demand 21,247 20,400 19,900 19,850 20,050 20,250 20,550 20,800 21,100 21,375 21,700 21,950 Ending stocks, September 30 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 1,856 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345
Soybean meal (thousand short tons) Beginning stocks, October 1 346 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Production 42,242 41,491 40,935 41,235 41,635 42,085 42,585 43,085 43,585 44,085 44,585 45,085 Imports 140 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Total supply 42,728 41,950 41,400 41,700 42,100 42,550 43,050 43,550 44,050 44,550 45,050 45,550 Domestic disappearance 33,234 33,050 32,700 32,900 33,100 33,500 34,000 34,500 35,000 35,500 36,000 36,500 Exports 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 Total demand 42,434 41,650 41,100 41,400 41,800 42,250 42,750 43,250 43,750 44,250 44,750 45,250 Ending stocks, September 30 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 335.94 285.00 260.00 255.00 252.50 251.00 246.00 249.00 250.50 250.50 250.50 252.00
Crushing yields (pounds per bushel) Soybean oil 11.42 11.40 11.40 11.41 11.42 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49 Soybean meal 46.90 47.56 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 3.72 1.43 1.33 1.26 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel, history from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 39 Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (thousand acres):

Planted 2,761 2,940 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,050 3,050 3,050 3,100 3,100 3,100 Harvested 2,748 2,924 2,984 2,984 2,984 2,984 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,083 3,083 3,083
Yields (pounds per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725
Supply and use (million hundredweight):
Beginning stocks 39.3 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 Production 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 Imports 23.9 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.8 36.0 Total supply 260.7 258.4 264.8 270.3 274.6 277.6 283.0 287.7 291.4 297.6 302.3 305.4

Domestic use and residual 123.3 126.0 127.9 129.8 131.7 133.7 135.7 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.2 Exports 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 Total use 231.2 233.0 236.9 241.3 245.7 249.7 253.7 257.7 261.8 266.4 271.0 275.2
Ending stocks 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 10.9 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.7 11.5 11.0
Milling rate, percent 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5
Prices (dollars per hundredweight):
World price 11.53 13.50 11.00 10.00 9.50 9.25 9.50 9.78 10.02 10.27 10.53 10.79 Average market price 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04 Loan rate 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 414 511 497 499 507 514 520 527 533 540 547 554 Per hundredweight 5.76 7.35 6.96 6.93 6.97 6.99 7.02 7.04 7.06 7.10 7.13 7.17
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 506 532 396 326 286 265 280 299 318 336 356 377 Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice.

### 40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Area (million acres):

Planted acres 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Harvested acres 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3
Yields (pounds per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950
Supply and use (thousand bales):
Beginning stocks 9,338 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 Production 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 Imports 6 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Supply 27,699 22,979 19,647 18,732 19,767 20,652 21,287 21,872 22,407 22,792 23,227 23,712

Domestic use 4,573 4,365 4,315 4,265 4,215 4,165 4,115 4,065 4,015 3,965 3,915 3,865 Exports 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 Total use 17,393 16,865 15,115 14,765 15,215 15,865 16,315 16,765 17,215 17,565 17,915 18,265
Ending stocks 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 Stocks/use ratio, percent 56.9 36.4 29.9 26.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8
Prices (dollars per pound):

Farm price 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635 Loan rate 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 421 491 493 498 507 514 522 530 538 546 555 564 Per pound 0.49 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59
Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 1 205 150 152 151 170 174 178 183 188 193 198 203 Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton. 1/ Net returns include estimates of marketing loan benefits.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 41 Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections Item Units 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Sugarbeets Planted area 1,000 acres 1,269 1,080 1,408 1,306 1,261 1,301 1,311 1,310 1,297 1,287 1,296 1,300 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,247 1,053 1,356 1,264 1,227 1,264 1,273 1,267 1,249 1,239 1,248 1,252 Yield Tons/acre 25.6 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 Production Mil. s. tons 31.9 28.0 35.2 32.5 31.5 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.5 32.4 32.8 33.0
Sugarcane Harvested area 1,000 acres 832 830 843 840 840 832 840 850 839 833 836 838 Yield Tons/acre 35.1 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.1 Production Mil. s. tons 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4
Supply: Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,799 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 Production 1,000 s. tons 8,150 7,681 9,139 8,794 8,701 8,894 9,032 9,113 9,066 9,076 9,205 9,308 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,721 4,225 5,405 5,026 4,907 5,103 5,183 5,198 5,171 5,175 5,259 5,323 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,429 3,456 3,734 3,768 3,794 3,792 3,849 3,916 3,895 3,902 3,946 3,986 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 2,456 2,496 2,839 2,365 2,807 2,753 3,238 3,312 3,237 3,187 3,133 3,085

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,352 1,511 1,357 1,359 1,361 1,367 1,369 1,372 1,374 1,379 1,382 1,384 Other imports 1,000 s. tons 1,104 985 1,483 1,006 1,446 1,386 1,869 1,940 1,863 1,808 1,751 1,700 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,405 11,867 12,886 12,805 12,933 13,183 13,973 14,230 14,094 14,015 14,085 14,169

Use: Exports 1,000 s. tons 203 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 10,781 10,710 10,990 11,130 11,148 11,230 11,308 11,376 11,433 11,477 11,519 11,558 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -269 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total use 1,000 s. tons 10,715 10,960 11,240 11,380 11,398 11,480 11,558 11,626 11,683 11,727 11,769 11,808
CCC surplus disbursements 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 609 815 660 541 540 544 Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 1,817
Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 23.34 25.66 23.67 22.67 22.15 21.53 21.32 21.31 21.30 21.30 21.30 21.29 Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.00 18.00 18.25 18.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 22.90 23.13 23.45 23.77 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 39.70 46.83 41.33 38.91 39.27 38.14 37.36 37.24 37.31 37.38 37.45 37.52 Sugarcane Dol./ton 29.25 31.35 31.77 31.13 30.82 30.48 30.39 30.48 30.60 30.73 30.85 30.96 CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

### 42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production area 1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 10,928 10,707 10,906 10,917 10,955 10,994 11,035 11,076 11,120 11,165 11,211 11,259

Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 3,908 3,897 3,895 3,894 3,893 3,893 3,893 3,894 3,894 3,896 3,898 3,900 Vegetables and melons 1,000 acres 7,020 6,810 7,011 7,023 7,061 7,101 7,141 7,183 7,225 7,269 7,313 7,359 Supply

Production, farm weight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 59,047 64,369 64,249 64,142 64,043 63,954 63,875 63,804 63,743 63,691 63,648 63,614

Citrus Mil. lbs. 20,934 25,994 25,604 25,220 24,842 24,469 24,102 23,741 23,384 23,034 22,688 22,348 Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 34,129 34,300 34,471 34,643 34,817 34,991 35,166 35,342 35,518 35,696 35,874 36,054 Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 3,984 4,076 4,174 4,278 4,385 4,495 4,607 4,722 4,840 4,961 5,085 5,212 Vegetables and melons Mil. lbs. 141,158 135,778 136,562 137,858 138,712 139,576 140,451 141,337 142,233 143,140 144,059 144,988

Fresh market 2 Mil. lbs. 60,700 59,950 59,659 60,358 61,066 61,784 62,510 63,247 63,992 64,748 65,513 66,288 Processing 3 Mil. lbs. 35,777 34,774 34,370 34,542 34,473 34,404 34,335 34,267 34,198 34,130 34,062 33,994 Potatoes Mil. lbs. 44,681 41,055 42,532 42,958 43,173 43,388 43,605 43,823 44,043 44,263 44,484 44,706 Pulses 4 Mil. lbs. 4,535 4,550 4,641 4,734 4,828 4,925 5,024 5,124 5,227 5,331 5,438 5,546 Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 200,470 200,412 201,074 202,263 203,018 203,793 204,588 205,403 206,238 207,093 207,968 208,864 Imports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 41,597 42,197 42,719 43,734 45,137 46,586 48,082 49,628 51,225 52,874 54,578 56,337

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 20,928 20,568 20,780 21,204 21,780 22,372 22,980 23,604 24,246 24,905 25,581 26,277 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 18,456 19,196 19,446 19,932 20,649 21,393 22,163 22,961 23,787 24,644 25,531 26,450

Use

Exports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 20,019 23,034 23,800 24,197 24,602 25,014 25,435 25,865 26,303 26,749 27,205 27,670

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 7,817 9,238 9,553 9,689 9,827 9,968 10,111 10,257 10,406 10,558 10,713 10,871 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 10,552 11,927 12,285 12,481 12,681 12,884 13,090 13,299 13,512 13,728 13,948 14,171

Domestic use 5

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 222,048 219,575 219,993 221,800 223,554 225,365 227,235 229,167 231,160 233,217 235,341 237,531

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 72,159 75,699 75,476 75,657 75,997 76,359 76,744 77,151 77,582 78,037 78,516 79,020 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 149,062 143,048 143,723 145,309 146,681 148,085 149,524 150,998 152,508 154,056 155,642 157,267

Farm sales value 6

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 17,765 18,449 18,922 19,409 19,909 20,424 20,954 21,498 22,059 22,636 23,229 23,839

Citrus $ Mil. 2,292 2,304 2,315 2,327 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,385 2,397 2,409 2,421 Noncitrus $ Mil. 11,502 12,032 12,345 12,667 12,997 13,335 13,682 14,038 14,404 14,779 15,164 15,559 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,971 4,114 4,262 4,415 4,574 4,739 4,910 5,086 5,270 5,459 5,656 5,859
Vegetables and melons $ Mil. 20,865 21,878 22,313 22,759 23,213 23,676 24,149 24,631 25,123 25,626 26,138 26,661

Fresh market 2 $ Mil. 6,640 6,739 6,995 7,149 7,306 7,467 7,631 7,799 7,971 8,146 8,325 8,509 Processing 3 $ Mil. 2,592 2,833 3,032 3,086 3,142 3,198 3,256 3,314 3,374 3,435 3,497 3,560 Potatoes $ Mil. 2,960 3,233 3,039 3,096 3,155 3,215 3,276 3,339 3,402 3,467 3,533 3,600 Pulses 4 $ Mil. 878 966 898 923 948 973 999 1,026 1,054 1,083 1,112 1,142

Nursery and greenhouse 7 $ Mil. 17,179 17,453 17,733 18,016 18,305 18,597 18,895 19,197 19,505 19,817 20,134 20,456

Total horticulture crops 8 $ Mil. 56,387 58,362 59,553 60,771 62,017 63,291 64,593 65,926 67,289 68,683 70,109 71,567

Producer prices 9

Fruit and tree nuts 2000=100 181.1 172.6 177.3 182.2 187.2 192.3 197.5 202.9 208.4 214.0 219.7 225.6

Citrus 2000=100 150.4 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 134.6 137.3 140.1 143.0 145.9 148.8 Noncitrus 2000=100 152.2 158.4 161.7 165.1 168.6 172.1 175.7 179.4 183.1 187.0 190.9 194.9 Tree nuts 2000=100 144.7 146.5 148.2 149.8 151.4 153.1 154.7 156.4 158.1 159.7 161.5 163.2
Vegetables and melons 2000=100 128.6 140.1 142.1 143.6 145.5 147.5 149.5 151.6 153.6 155.7 157.8 159.9

Fresh market 2000=100 110.1 113.1 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.2 Processing 2000=100 120.5 135.5 146.7 148.6 151.5 154.6 157.7 160.8 164.1 167.3 170.7 174.1 Potatoes 2000=100 147.8 175.7 159.4 160.8 163.1 165.3 167.6 170.0 172.4 174.8 177.2 179.7
Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 2000=100 145.7 152.1 155.0 157.6 160.6 163.6 166.6 169.8 172.9 176.2 179.4 182.8 1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Includes melons, sweet potatoes, fresh mushrooms, and California specialty vegetables. 3/ Major processing vegetables and agaricus mushrooms. 4/ Includes edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. 5/ Calculated b y adding farm weight production to imports, then subtracting exports. Stocks are not accounted for. 6/ Farm cash receipts except for major fresh market and proc essing vegetables, which are from production values. 7/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and colored peppers, and fruit /vegetable transplants. 8/ Includes honey, maple syrup, hops, mint oils, and coffee. 9/ Based on cash receipts of U.S. farmers relative to their farm weight produ ction. Data source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 43 Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Exports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 3,010 3,574 3,999 4,093 4,189 4,287 4,388 4,491 4,596 4,703 4,813 4,925 Citrus $ Mil. 668 856 1,194 1,199 1,202 1,205 1,207 1,208 1,208 1,207 1,205 1,202 Noncitrus $ Mil. 2,342 2,718 2,805 2,894 2,987 3,083 3,181 3,283 3,388 3,497 3,608 3,724 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,013 2,355 2,414 2,474 2,536 2,599 2,664 2,731 2,799 2,869 2,941 3,014 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,022 1,157 1,187 1,218 1,249 1,282 1,315 1,349 1,384 1,420 1,457 1,495 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,025 3,487 3,600 3,726 3,856 3,991 4,131 4,276 4,425 4,580 4,741 4,906 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 8,048 9,415 10,013 10,293 10,581 10,878 11,183 11,497 11,820 12,153 12,494 12,846
Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 1,775 1,941 2,001 2,063 2,127 2,193 2,261 2,331 2,403 2,478 2,555 2,634 Processed 1 $ Mil. 2,387 3,015 3,093 3,174 3,256 3,341 3,428 3,517 3,608 3,702 3,798 3,897 Total vegetables $ Mil. 4,162 4,956 5,094 5,237 5,383 5,534 5,689 5,848 6,012 6,180 6,353 6,531
Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 357 373 381 389 398 406 414 423 432 441 450 460 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,142 1,278 1,318 1,359 1,401 1,444 1,489 1,535 1,583 1,632 1,682 1,734 Wine $ Mil. 906 966 1,005 1,045 1,087 1,130 1,175 1,222 1,271 1,322 1,375 1,430 Beer $ Mil. 232 266 267 268 270 271 272 274 275 277 278 279 Other 2 $ Mil. 3,173 3,541 3,422 3,549 3,680 3,816 3,958 4,104 4,256 4,413 4,577 4,746

Total horticulture $ Mil. 18,020 20,795 21,500 22,140 22,799 23,479 24,180 24,903 25,649 26,417 27,209 28,027

Fresh 3 $ Mil. 4,786 5,515 6,000 6,156 6,316 6,480 6,649 6,822 6,999 7,181 7,368 7,559 Processed 3 $ Mil. 4,399 5,370 5,600 5,734 5,872 6,013 6,157 6,305 6,456 6,611 6,770 6,932 Export share of production 4 Percent 32 36 36 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 39 Imports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 5,401 5,544 5,600 5,824 6,057 6,299 6,551 6,813 7,086 7,369 7,664 7,971 Citrus $ Mil. 499 417 288 321 356 393 432 474 518 565 615 668 Noncitrus $ Mil. 4,903 5,127 5,312 5,503 5,701 5,906 6,119 6,339 6,567 6,804 7,049 7,303 Processed fruits $ Mil. 3,416 3,984 4,400 4,572 4,750 4,935 5,128 5,328 5,535 5,751 5,976 6,209 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,616 1,935 2,000 2,074 2,151 2,230 2,313 2,398 2,487 2,579 2,675 2,774 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,078 1,277 1,400 1,457 1,517 1,579 1,644 1,712 1,782 1,855 1,931 2,010 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 9,896 10,805 11,400 11,853 12,324 12,814 13,323 13,852 14,403 14,975 15,570 16,189
Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 4,165 4,442 4,500 4,698 4,905 5,121 5,346 5,581 5,827 6,083 6,351 6,630 Processed 1 $ Mil. 3,149 3,520 3,700 3,841 3,987 4,138 4,295 4,458 4,628 4,804 4,986 5,176 Total vegetables $ Mil. 7,314 7,962 8,200 8,539 8,891 9,259 9,641 10,040 10,455 10,887 11,337 11,806
Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,531 1,514 1,500 1,541 1,582 1,625 1,669 1,714 1,760 1,808 1,856 1,906 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,431 2,653 2,800 2,864 2,930 2,998 3,067 3,137 3,209 3,283 3,359 3,436 Wine $ Mil. 4,543 4,755 4,800 4,987 5,182 5,384 5,594 5,812 6,039 6,274 6,519 6,773 Beer $ Mil. 3,686 3,662 3,600 3,701 3,804 3,911 4,020 4,133 4,249 4,368 4,490 4,616 Other 2 $ Mil. 2,985 3,360 3,494 3,634 3,779 3,931 4,088 4,251 4,421 4,598 4,782 4,974
Total horticulture $ Mil. 32,386 34,712 35,794 37,119 38,493 39,920 41,401 42,939 44,535 46,193 47,913 49,700

Fresh 3 $ Mil. 9,567 9,986 10,100 10,522 10,962 11,420 11,897 12,394 12,912 13,452 14,015 14,601 Processed 3 $ Mil. 6,565 7,505 8,100 8,412 8,736 9,073 9,423 9,786 10,163 10,555 10,962 11,384
Import share of domestic use 4 Percent 46 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 54 1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, etc. that contain horticulture ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. 4/ Percent shares are based on values. Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry. Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

### 44 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

### Livestock

Production adjustments in response to high gr ain and soybean meal prices in 2007 and 2008 continue to ripple through the li vestock sector in the first seve ral years of the projections. Additionally, demand is somewhat weakened due to the domestic recession and global economic slowdown. Thus, with producer returns squee zed in 2008 and rebounding only slightly over the next few years, total U.S. meat and poultry production declines through 2011. These production adjustments combine with streng thening meat exports to reduce domestic per capita consumption through 2012. The result is lower production at higher prices, with improving net returns providing economic incentives for moderate expa nsion in the sector toward the end of the projection period.

Production of all meats declines in 2009 a nd 2010 in response to higher feed costs.

 Higher grain prices as well as effects of dr ought on pasture conditions in recent years hold down cattle inventories, pushing U.S. beef production down in 2009-12. Production then rises in the remainder of the projection period as returns impr ove and herds are rebuilt. The total cattle inventory drops be low 94 million head before expanding to about 97 million at the end of the projection period. Rising slaught er weights also contribute to the moderate expansion of beef production beyond 2012. Continue d high feed costs will result in stocker cattle remaining on pasture to heavier weights before entering feedlots.

 Pork production declines in 2009- 11 in response to high feed pr ices and then grows for the remainder of the projections as higher hog pric es improve returns. Production coordination and market integration between the United Stat es and Canada continue in the hog sector. Canada is the major supplier of live swine imported by the United States.

 Poultry production declines in 2009-10 while adjus ting to high feed costs, but then rises the most among the meats through the rest of the projection period, refl ecting poultry being the most efficient feed converter. 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. red meat and poultry production
Billion pounds

Beef

Pork Broilers

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 45 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. per capita meat consumption
Pounds per capita, retail weight

Beef Broilers

Pork



### Livestock sector production adjust ments to higher feed costs, as well as gains in meat and poultry exports, result in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption. Annual per capita consumption of red meats and poultry falls from 221 pounds in 2007 to less than 210 pounds in 2011 and 2012. Following the sector’s production ad justments to lower levels, per capita consumption of red meats and poultry th en resumes growth, to 217 pounds in 2018.

 Per capita beef consumption declines thr ough the first half of the projection period, reflecting production adjustments in the industr y to higher feed costs, before rebounding somewhat over the last several y ears of the projections. U.S. beef exports rise through the projection period, further limiting domestic per capita beef consumption. A gradual rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan a nd South Korea is assumed. Demand for U.S. beef in export markets is primarily for high-quality beef.

 Higher feed costs lead to reductions in por k production, which combine with rising pork exports to push per capita pork consumpti on down through 2012. A gradual rebound in per capita pork consumption occurs over the rema inder of the projection period as production gains strengthen.

 Due partly to higher feed conversion rates, poult ry meat prices remain lower than red meat prices. Nonetheless, as returns are squeezed, lower production raises prices and results in per capita consumption declines in 2009-11. Following these adjustments, producer returns improve, production strengthens, and prices moderate. Consequently, per capita consumption grows slowly through th e end of the projection period.

### 46 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Nominal U.S. livestock prices
Dollars per hundredweight

Beef cattle: Choice steers, Nebraska

Broilers: 12-city market price

Hogs: National base



### Increasing livestock prices over th e first half of the projection period result from lower production as the sector adjusts to higher feed costs. Once the production adjustments have occurred, prices level off at a new higher plane.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Poultry Pork Beef U.S. spending on meat

Percent of income



### Even with higher meat prices and near term recession in the United States, rising U.S. incomes over most of the next decade facilitate gain s in consumer spending on meat. Continuing a long-term trend, overall meat expenditures represent a declining proportion of disposable income.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 47 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Beef
Pork Poultry U.S. meat exports
Billion pounds

Although the domestic market remains the dominant source of total meat demand, exports account for a growing share of U.S. meat use. The near-term economic slowdown and higher meat prices reduce overall U.S. meat and poultry exports in 2009 and 2010. Exports rise through the rest of the projection period as global economic growth resumes and the U.S. dollar remains relatively weak.

 U.S. beef exports primarily reflect demand for hi gh-quality fed beef, with most U.S. beef exports typically going to Mexico, Canada, and markets in Pacific Rim nations. A gradual recovery in U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea is assumed, export markets that were lost following the first U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in December 2003.

 U.S. imports of processing beef from Australia and New Zealand increase in the projection period. With more beef demand in East Asian markets being met by the United States, exports from Australia and New Zealand to those markets are reduced, resulting in more of their product redirected to the United States.

 Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. pork exports. Brazil is also a major pork exporter. However, no changes in the set of countries recognizing Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are assumed, thus limiting Brazilian pork producers’ ability to compete in some markets. Consequently, Brazil’s pork exports expand to markets such as Russia, Argentina, and Asian markets other than Japan and South Korea.

 Despite higher feed costs, increased efficiency in U.S. pork production enhances the competitiveness of U.S. pork products. Nonetheles s, longer term gains in U.S. pork exports will be determined by costs of production and environmental regulations relative to competitors. Production costs tend to be lower in countries that are developing integrated pork industries, such as Brazil.



###  After declining in 2009 and 2010, U.S. broiler exports rise through the rest of the projection period. Major U.S. export markets include China, Russia, and Mexico. Longer term gains in these markets reflect their economic growth and increasing consumer demand. Demand for poultry also remains strong due to its lower cost relative to beef and pork. U.S. producers continue to face strong competition from other major exporters, particularly Brazil. For most of the projection period, exports from avian influenza-affected countries are expected to be limited to fully cooked products.

### 48 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 8 9 10 11

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 15 20 25 U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow

Million cows

Milk cows Output per cow 1,000 pounds per cow



### Despite higher feed costs, strong farm-level mi lk prices in 2007 encouraged milk producers to increase cow numbers in 2008. Combined with an upward trend in output per cow, milk production rose relatively strongl y. Milk production is projecte d to continue rising over the projection period, although at a slower pace than in the past several years.

 Milk cow numbers are expected to resume a mo re typical path of ye ar-to-year declines after 2008. However, annual reductions are more moderate compared with past decades as increasing specialization of dairy farms over time slows exit rates from milk production.

 Milk output per cow is projected to increase, although some slowing in these gains occurs in 2008-10 in response to higher feed costs. Nonetheless, further development of specialized operations in most regions will cont ribute to a continuation of gains in output per cow.

 Domestic commercial use of dair y products increases somewhat faster than the growth in U.S. population over most of the next decade. Cheese demand benefits from greater consumption of prepared foods and increa sed away-from-home eating. However, per capita consumption of fluid milk is exp ected to continue to decline slowly.

 U.S. exports of dairy products decline from the levels re ached in 2008, but remain high by historical standards. Global demand for dairy products has grown as incomes in developing countries have rise n. Exports on a skim-solids ba sis fall less than fat basis exports due to commercial sales of non-fat dry milk.

 Farm-level milk prices fall from the high levels of 2007 and 2008, partly reflecting the reduction in U.S. dairy product exports from the 2008 peak. Milk prices rise over the latter part of the projection period, although increase s are less than the general inflation rate largely due to efficiency gains in production.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 49 Table 19. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Pounds
Total beef 65.2 63.0 62.4 61.0 59.7 58.2 57.5 56.9 57.0 57.5 58.3 58.9 Total veal 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total pork 50.8 48.7 49.0 48.3 46.9 46.8 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.5 Lamb and mutton 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Total red meat 117.6 113.2 112.9 110.7 108.0 106.4 106.0 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.0 108.6

Broilers 85.1 84.8 84.2 83.7 83.2 84.7 85.6 86.6 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.4 Other chicken 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Turkeys 17.5 18.0 17.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 Total poultry 103.7 104.3 103.2 102.3 101.7 103.2 104.2 105.3 106.3 107.2 107.8 108.4
Red meat & poultry 221.3 217.5 216.1 213.1 209.7 209.6 210.2 211.2 213.0 214.4 215.9 217.0

Table 20. Consumer expenditures for meats Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beef, dollars per person 271.27 269.57 274.97 283.92 291.23 295.38 298.28 300.54 300.91 302.18 303.91 306.27 Percent of income 0.81 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.61 Percent of meat expenditures 46.96 46.39 46.18 46.26 46.13 45.88 45.72 45.55 45.42 45.46 45.51 45.50
Pork, dollars per person 145.73 142.15 147.43 150.19 153.02 156.12 158.37 160.49 161.75 162.80 163.67 164.77 Percent of income 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 Percent of meat expenditures 25.23 24.46 24.76 24.47 24.24 24.25 24.28 24.32 24.42 24.49 24.51 24.48
Broilers, dollars per person 140.43 147.29 150.51 157.21 164.47 169.77 173.38 176.84 178.29 178.93 179.98 182.60 Percent of income 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.36 Percent of meat expenditures 24.31 25.35 25.28 25.61 26.05 26.37 26.58 26.80 26.91 26.92 26.95 27.12
Turkeys, dollars per person 20.18 22.12 22.46 22.47 22.65 22.61 22.32 22.01 21.49 20.86 20.16 19.54 Percent of income 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 Percent of meat expenditures 3.49 3.81 3.77 3.66 3.59 3.51 3.42 3.34 3.24 3.14 3.02 2.90
Total meat, dollars per person 577.60 581.14 595.37 613.80 631.37 643.88 652.35 659.88 662.44 664.78 667.72 673.18 Percent of income 1.72 1.69 1.71 1.69 1.67 1.64 1.59 1.55 1.49 1.44 1.38 1.34

### 50 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 21. Beef long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 630 630 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 26,421 26,699 26,650 26,364 26,107 25,763 25,794 25,828 26,191 26,761 27,395 27,952 Change from previous year Percent 1.0 1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.1 0.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.0
Farm production Mil. lbs. 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 Total production Mil. lbs. 26,523 26,801 26,752 26,466 26,209 25,865 25,896 25,930 26,293 26,863 27,497 28,054 Imports Mil. lbs. 3,052 2,443 2,595 2,663 2,740 2,812 2,884 2,957 3,030 3,103 3,150 3,195 Total supply Mil. lbs. 30,205 29,874 29,942 29,724 29,544 29,272 29,375 29,482 29,918 30,561 31,242 31,844
Exports Mil. lbs. 1,434 1,841 1,920 2,075 2,231 2,389 2,547 2,707 2,867 3,029 3,111 3,194
Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 630 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595
Total consumption Mil. lbs. 28,141 27,438 27,427 27,054 26,718 26,288 26,233 26,180 26,456 26,937 27,536 28,055 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 93.2 90.0 89.1 87.1 85.2 83.1 82.2 81.3 81.4 82.2 83.3 84.1 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 65.2 63.0 62.4 61.0 59.7 58.2 57.5 56.9 57.0 57.5 58.3 58.9 Change from previous year Percent -0.9 -3.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -1.1 -1.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0

Prices:

Beef cattle, farm $/cwt 90.02 90.81 94.27 94.95 99.91 103.82 105.50 107.60 107.19 106.74 105.85 105.52 Calves, farm $/cwt 122.25 116.25 122.43 119.72 129.87 137.91 141.81 145.93 144.32 142.62 140.64 139.70 Choice steers, Nebraska $/cwt 91.82 93.22 96.75 97.44 102.54 106.55 108.28 110.43 110.01 109.55 108.64 108.31 Y earling steers, Oklahoma City $/cwt 108.23 104.82 110.25 107.81 116.95 124.19 127.70 131.41 129.96 128.43 126.65 125.80
Costs and returns, cow-calf enterprise:
Variable expenses $/cow 275.80 333.23 339.06 327.46 327.03 330.23 333.42 337.08 343.57 350.01 355.52 361.17 Fixed expenses $/cow 173.16 189.75 196.62 204.71 207.58 211.54 219.45 227.58 233.29 238.87 244.72 250.58 Total cash expenses $/cow 448.97 522.97 535.69 532.17 534.61 541.77 552.86 564.66 576.86 588.88 600.24 611.75 Returns above cash costs $/cow 94.03 11.44 32.11 33.37 87.74 129.66 147.78 167.00 156.95 146.40 134.85 128.67
Cattle inventory 1,000 head 97,003 96,669 96,200 95,600 94,055 93,241 93,073 93,652 94,524 95,787 96,847 97,448 Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 32,891 32,553 31,855 31,480 30,982 30,930 31,096 31,697 32,245 32,983 33,570 33,905 Total cow inventory 1,000 head 42,023 41,777 41,000 41,200 40,132 40,050 40,188 40,753 41,258 41,947 42,477 42,770

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 51 Table 22. Pork long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 514 536 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 21,943 23,452 23,075 22,951 22,599 22,803 23,184 23,680 24,177 24,440 24,677 24,915 Change from previous year Percent 4.2 6.9 -1.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Farm production Mil. lbs. 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Total production Mil. lbs. 21,962 23,471 23,094 22,970 22,618 22,822 23,203 23,699 24,196 24,459 24,696 24,934 Imports Mil. lbs. 968 832 850 950 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,075 1,100 1,125 1,150 1,175 Total supply Mil. lbs. 23,444 24,839 24,584 24,560 24,258 24,487 24,893 25,414 25,936 26,224 26,486 26,749
Exports Mil. lbs. 3,141 5,068 4,500 4,590 4,682 4,775 4,871 4,968 5,068 5,138 5,208 5,278
Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 536 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640
Total consumption Mil. lbs. 19,767 19,131 19,444 19,330 18,936 19,072 19,382 19, 806 20,228 20,446 20,638 20,831 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 65.4 62.7 63.2 62.2 60.4 60.3 60.7 61.5 62.2 62.4 62.4 62.4 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 50.8 48.7 49.0 48.3 46.9 46.8 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.5 Change from previous year Percent 2.8 -4.1 0.7 -1.5 -2.9 -0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Prices: Hogs, farm $/cwt 46.66 47.29 49.26 52.36 57.19 59.05 59.42 59.02 58.31 58.88 59.54 60.31 National base, live equivalent $/cwt 47.09 47.86 49.75 52.88 57.76 59.64 60.02 59.62 58.90 59.47 60.14 60.92

Costs and returns, farrow to finish:
Variable expenses $/cwt 41.31 56.07 53.11 50.27 50.02 49.88 49.76 49.79 50.80 51.74 52.33 52.94 Fixed expenses $/cwt 9.19 6.81 7.65 7.80 7.63 7.69 7.59 7.55 7.43 7.23 7.05 6.86 Total cash expenses $/cwt 50.50 62.89 60.76 58.06 57.65 57.56 57.35 57.34 58.23 58.97 59.38 59.80 Returns above cash costs $/cwt -0.61 -15.03 -11.01 -5.18 0.11 2.08 2.66 2.28 0.67 0.50 0.76 1.12
Hog inventory, December 1, previous year 1,000 head 62,490 68,173 67,200 66,858 65,888 66,451 67,499 68,865 70,234 70,960 71,612 72,265

Table 23. Young chicken long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 732 719 700 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 36,126 37,142 36,740 36,344 36,561 37,467 38,204 38,957 39,692 40,366 40,981 41,566 Change from previous year Percent 1.8 2.8 -1.1 -1.1 0.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4

Production Mil. lbs. 35,739 36,745 36,347 35,980 36,195 37,092 37,822 38,568 39,295 39,962 40,572 41,150 Total supply Mil. lbs. 36,535 37,539 37,127 36,730 36,945 37,842 38,572 39,318 40,045 40,712 41,322 41,900 Change from previous year Percent 1.2 2.7 -1.1 -1.1 0.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4
Exports Mil. lbs. 5,904 6,719 6,275 5,757 5,888 5,969 6,065 6,153 6,250 6,350 6,426 6,499
Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 719 700 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Consumption Mil. lbs. 29,912 30,120 30,162 30,283 30,367 31,183 31,817 32,475 33,105 33,672 34,206 34,711 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 99.0 98.8 98.0 97.5 96.9 98.6 99.7 100.8 101.9 102.7 103.4 104.1 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 85.1 84.8 84.2 83.7 83.2 84.7 85.6 86.6 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.4 Change from previous year Percent -1.8 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6

Prices:

Broilers, farm Cents/lb. 44.3 47.4 50.1 52.0 54.1 54.9 55.5 56.1 56.1 56.0 56.1 56.7 12-city market price Cents/lb. 76.4 79.8 84.5 87.6 91.1 92.5 93.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.5 95.5

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/lb. 70.87 81.76 80.31 78.98 79.16 79.47 79.87 80.32 81.50 82.67 84.13 85.61 Net returns Cents/lb. 5.53 -1.96 4.19 8.65 11.93 13.03 13.69 14.17 13.03 11.72 10.39 9.87

### 52 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 24. Turkey long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 218 261 320 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 5,958 6,267 6,105 6,094 6,132 6,196 6,270 6,349 6,469 6,564 6,638 6,698 Change from previous year Percent 4.9 5.2 -2.6 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9

Production Mil. lbs. 5,880 6,185 6,025 6,015 6,052 6,115 6,188 6,267 6,384 6,479 6,552 6,611 Total supply Mil. lbs. 6,108 6,457 6,357 6,312 6,349 6,412 6,485 6,564 6,681 6,776 6,849 6,908 Change from previous year Percent 4.8 5.7 -1.5 -0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9

Exports Mil. lbs. 547 643 605 640 654 663 674 684 694 706 714 722
Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 261 320 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285
Consumption Mil. lbs. 5,300 5,494 5,467 5,388 5,410 5,464 5,526 5,595 5,702 5,785 5,850 5,901 Per capita Pounds 17.5 18.0 17.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 Change from previous year Percent 3.7 2.7 -1.4 -2.4 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0

Prices:
Turkey, farm Cents/lb. 52.0 57.5 58.9 62.3 64.9 66.6 67.2 67.7 66.9 66.0 65.0 64.5 Hen turkey (wholesale) East Cents/lb. 82.1 89.0 91.3 96.5 100.7 103.2 104.2 105.0 103.7 102.3 100.8 100.0

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/lb. 68.47 80.28 79.13 76.63 76.56 76.62 76.73 76.86 77.88 78.80 78.41 78.00 Net returns Cents/lb. 13.63 8.72 12.17 19.87 24.10 26.55 27.47 28.12 25.86 23.51 22.41 21.95

Table 25. Egg long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beginning stocks Mil. doz. 13 11 16 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Production Mil. doz. 7,547 7,514 7,540 7,578 7,631 7,707 7,792 7,878 7,964 8,052 8,140 8,230 Change from previous yea r Percent -0.8 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Imports Mil. doz. 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Total supply Mil. doz. 7,573 7,540 7,570 7,605 7,658 7,734 7,819 7,905 7,991 8,079 8,167 8,257 Change from previous year Percent -0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Hatching use Mil. doz. 1,015 1,000 1,016 1,008 1,009 1,022 1,038 1,053 1,067 1,081 1,093 1,104 Exports Mil. doz. 250 205 221 224 227 230 233 236 239 242 245 248
Ending stocks Mil. doz. 11 16 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Consumption Mil. doz. 6,297 6,320 6,320 6,360 6,409 6,469 6,535 6,603 6,672 6,743 6,816 6,892 Per capita Number 250.1 248.7 246.4 245.6 245.3 245.4 245.6 246.0 246.4 246.8 247.4 247.9 Change from previous year Percent -3.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Prices:
Eggs, farm Cents/doz. 93.0 106.7 103.8 97.1 96.3 96.3 97.1 97.9 99.6 101.3 102.5 103.8 New York, Grade A large Cents/doz. 114.4 127.7 123.0 117.0 116.0 116.0 117.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 123.5 125.0

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/doz. 88.50 120.13 115.39 109.29 108.78 108.46 108.22 108.27 110.44 112.45 113.72 115.03 Net returns Cents/doz. 25.90 7.57 7.61 7.71 7.22 7.54 8.78 9.73 9.56 9.55 9.78 9.97

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 53 Table 26. Dairy long-term projections Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Milk production and marketings: Number of cows 1,000 9,158 9,265 9,245 9,190 9,165 9,125 9,080 9,030 8,985 8,945 8,900 8,845 Milk per cow Pounds 20,267 20,480 20,710 20,960 21,315 21,665 21,910 22,220 22,535 22,905 23,160 23,465 Milk production Bil. lbs. 185.6 189.8 191.5 192.6 195.4 197.7 198.9 200.6 202.5 204.9 206.1 207.5 Farm use Bil. lbs. 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4 Supply and use, milkfat basis:
Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.5 10.4 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4 Imports Bil. lbs. 4.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 198.6 202.3 203.4 204.2 206.6 209.0 210.3 212.2 214.4 217.1 218.5 220.1

Commercial use Bil. lbs. 182.5 184.4 187.7 189.7 192.1 194.9 196.3 198.2 200.4 203.1 204.7 206.4 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 5.7 8.4 6.7 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.4 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.4 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 198.6 202.3 203.4 204.2 206.5 209.0 210.3 212.2 214.4 217.1 218.5 220.1

CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Supply and use, skim solids basis:
Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4 Imports Bil. lbs. 4.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 198.0 201.8 203.9 205.2 208.0 210.6 211.9 213.8 215.9 218.4 219.7 221.3

Commercial use Bil. lbs. 163.6 164.5 169.9 172.7 176.3 180.2 181.9 184.1 186.0 188.6 190.0 192.0 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 24.5 26.3 23.5 22.2 21.3 20.1 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.2 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.1 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 198.0 201.0 203.3 204.8 207.6 210.3 211.7 213.7 215.7 218.3 219.6 221.3

CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Prices: All milk $/cwt 19.13 18.35 15.75 15.75 15.40 15.25 15.40 15.50 15.55 15.65 15.80 16.15 Dairy projections were completed in November 2008. CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

### 54 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

### U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Fo od Prices, and Food Expenditures
The ongoing world economic slowdown underpins a retreat in global consumption, trade, and prices in the near term, reducing the U.S. ag ricultural trade value and farm income from 2008 levels. However, once global economies recove r, steady domestic and international economic growth supports gains in the U.S. agricultural sector. In addition, longrun developments reflect continued demand for agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels. Thus, after declining in the near term, farm income and U.S. agricultural tr ade grow through the rest of the projection period. Retail food pri ces rise faster than the genera l inflation rate through 2011, partly reflecting higher meat prices due to livestock sector adjustments to increased feed costs.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. net farm income

Billion dollars



### Net farm income declines in the near term from the high levels of 2007 and 2008, but remains historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels by the end of the projections.

 Sustained biofuel demand and strengthening global food demand provide a major impetus for projections of rising cash receipts after 2009.

 Lower government payments and rising farm production expenses offset some of the gains in cash receipts and other sources of farm income.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 55 0 5 10 15 20 25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Direct government payments

Total direct government payments Billion dollars



### Direct government payments to farmers are proj ected to fall from $12.4 billion in 2008 to an average of less than $10 bill ion annually in 2009 to 2018. Af ter 2010, price-dependent program benefits represent a declining share of payments.

 Strengthening domestic and international demand holds prices for most crops above levels that would result in marketing loan benefits or counter-cyclical payments. For example, even with stochastic considerations (included here to capture potenti al variation in farm program benefits due to variability in produc tion yields), payments for marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical pa yments for feed grains are minimal, totaling less than $100 million from 2010 through 2018.

 Projections of government payments under the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program (assuming stochastic yield variab ility) exceed $600 million in 2010 and reach almost $400 million in 2011, reflecting reduction s in prices from recent highs. Lower ACRE payments of less than $200 million annua lly are projected for subsequent years, reflecting relative stability in agricultural commodity ma rkets in the projections and assumed moderate levels of produ cer enrollment in the program.

 Sustained higher crop prices make the use of land for production more valuable, so rental rates for land in the Conservation Reserve Prog ram (CRP) rise. Nonetheless, with reduced enrollment of acreage in the program due to the 2008 Farm Act’s lowering of the maximum acreage permitted in the program, CRP payments ri se only moderately and remain close to $2 billion annually through the projection period.

 With higher prices, government payments have a smaller role in the agricultural sector’s income. Government payments, which repres ented more than 8 percent of gross cash income in 2005, account for less than 3 percen t during most of the projection period. Conversely, the sector relies on the market for more of its income. Cash receipts plus farm-related income rise to over 97 percent of gross cash income.

### 56 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other Manufactured Farm origin U.S. farm production expenses

Billion dollars



### Following the large runup in farm production expens es in 2008, expenses decline in 2009, largely due to reductions in energy-relate d costs. Production expenses then rise at close to the general inflation rate through the remainder of the proj ection period. Total farm production expenses are divided into three categories in the chart above: farm origin (seed, feed, and feeder livestock), manufactured (fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, and elect ricity), and other (labor , interest, net rent to nonoperator landlords, and other expenses).

 The largest percentage increase from 2009 to 2018 is for “other” expenses, reflecting increases in labor expenses a nd interest costs. Labor expe nses rise as sector output increases and wage rates rise. Projected increas es in interest costs reflect higher interest rates, as well as increased debt facilitated by higher income.

 Projected manufactured-input expenses decline in 2009 due to the redu ction in crude oil prices from their peak in 2008. With crude oil prices then project ed to rise over the remainder of the projection period, production expenses for manufactured inputs increase as well.

 Farm-origin expenses rise less than the genera l inflation rate. Feed expenses, which rose rapidly in recent years with higher corn prices , decline over the next several years as corn prices retreat and the livestock sector is reduced. Moderate increases in feed expenses are then projected as the livestock sector resume s growth. Seed expenses, which also rose sharply in 2008 with commodity prices, increase slowly in th e projection period. Expenses for purchased livestock increase over the first ha lf of the projections due to price increases as the sector contracts. As livestock production increases later in the projection period, prices decline and purchased-liv estock expenses level off.

 Cash operating margins are projected to remain relatively stable at 75-77 percent as cash receipts and gross cash income rise at close to the same pace as cash expenses.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 57 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 High value Bulk U.S. agricultural export value: Bulk and high value 1/

1/ Bulk commodities include wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value products include semi-processed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. Billion dollars

The value of U.S. agricultural exports declines over the next 2 years from the peak reached in fiscal year 2008, but then rises through the remainder of the projections due to increases in both export volumes and prices. A resumption of domestic economic growth boosts U.S. agricultural imports.



###  The value of U.S. agricultural exports reached a record level exceeding $115 billion in fiscal year 2008 as both trade volumes and prices were high. With lower volumes and declining prices, export values fall in 2009 and 2010. Agricultural export values are then projected to grow through the rest of the projection period, although they will fall short of the 2008 record. The continuing low value of the U.S. dollar is an important factor underlying recent export gains and the projected growth. And following the near-term adjustments, longer run global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in trade and U.S. agricultural exports. High commodity prices due to continued global biofuel demand also contribute to the gains in export values.



###  Increases in bulk commodity prices and export volumes over the past several years have strengthened bulk export values, pushing the share of exports accounted for by high-value products (HVP) down from 64 percent in fiscal year 2006 to 56 percent in 2008. Over the projection period, however, HVP export values grow in importance again, initially because of declining bulk volumes and prices and then due to faster HVP growth. By the end of the projection period, HVP exports represent close to 66 percent of the value of U.S. exports. Much of the growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural products.



###  U.S. agricultural import values rise to $110 billion in fiscal year 2018, boosted by gains in consumer income and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural imports is assumed to continue, contributing about half of the overall agricultural import increase.



###  With the large gains in bulk export volumes and increases in commodity prices in 2008, the overall U.S. agricultural trade surplus reached a record level of $36 billion. The agricultural trade balance is projected to decline from this level over the projection period, but remains a surplus.

### 58 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. food inflation
Percent change

Consumer Price Index (CPI), all items

Food CPI



### High prices for agricultural commodities and energy contributed to U.S. consumer food prices rising more than the general inflati on rate in 2008. Retail food prices continue to rise faster than overall inflation through 2011, part ly reflecting higher meat prices (particularly in 2010 and 2011) as the livestock sector adjusts to increased feed costs. Then consumer food prices in the United States return to the l onger term relationship of rising less than the genera l inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period.

 Commodity price increases for food grains and oil-bearing crops were the primary cause of large retail price increases for cereals and bakery products and fats and oils in 2008. Projected retail prices for these foods over th e projection period remain among the highest of foods purchased for consumption at home. Since these are gene rally highly processed foods, their prices in the l onger run tend to reflect proces sing and marketing costs and, therefore, rise at rates near the general inflation rate.

 Prices for food away from home reflect the overa ll inflation rate as well as some linkage to prices for retail meat and poultry. A slowing of growth in food consumption away from home is expected in the near term, due to the economic recession in the United States. Once the economy rebounds, income growth suppor ts continuing gains in prices for food consumed away from home. Nonetheless, competition in the fast-food and foodservice industries tends to moderate these price increases.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 59 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 U.S. food expenditures

Food at home

Food away from home Billion dollars



### The U.S. economic recession and the runup in energy-related consumer expenses in 2008 slowed growth in eating meals aw ay from home in the United St ates. Moderate increases in food away from home expenditures are expected over the next several years, with stronger increases expected after domes tic economic growth resumes.

 In the longer run, expenditures for meals pr epared away from home resume stronger growth and account for a growing share of total food spending, r eaching 53 percent of overall food expenditures in 2018.

### 60 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 27. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Billion dollars Cash receipts: Crops 147.0 178.8 163.1 164.2 166.4 168.0 169.9 173.2 177.3 181.1 184.6 188.1 Livestock and products 137.9 142.7 139.9 139.6 143.7 146.8 149.4 152.0 153.3 155.2 157.0 159.5 All commodities 284.8 321.5 303.0 303.8 310.1 314.8 319.3 325.1 330.5 336.3 341.6 347.6 Farm-related income 16.6 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 Government payments 11.9 12.4 10.0 10.8 9.9 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 Gross cash income 313.4 351.6 331.1 333.2 339.0 343.7 348.6 354.9 360.8 367.0 372.8 379.2
Cash expenses 226.0 261.1 250.1 250.2 255.0 259.9 264.9 269.5 274.5 279.9 284.7 289.6 Net cash income 87.4 90.5 81.0 82.9 84.0 83.7 83.7 85.4 86.3 87.1 88.1 89.6
Value of inventory change 3.7 0.1 -1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.4 Noncash income 24.0 25.4 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.1 31.7 Gross farm income 341.1 377.2 356.7 361.0 366.9 372.1 378.3 385.8 392.5 399.9 405.8 412.4
Noncash expenses 18.2 18.6 19.2 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 Operator dwelling expenses 10.2 11.2 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 Total production expenses 254.4 290.9 281.0 282.9 288.0 293.3 298.7 303.6 309.0 314.7 319.9 325.2 Net farm income 86.8 86.3 75.8 78.1 78.9 78.8 79.7 82.2 83.6 85.2 86.0 87.2

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 61 Table 28. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion dollars Agricultural exports (value): Livestock, dairy, and poultry 16.4 22.2 20.4 20.2 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.5 26.0 Livestock, poultry, and products 13.9 18.1 17.3 17.3 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.0 23.6 Dairy products 2.5 4.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Grain and feeds 24.3 38.3 28.3 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.3 27.8 Coarse grains 9.8 15.8 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.9 Oilseeds and products 13.7 22.9 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.3 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 Soybeans and products 11.0 19.3 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 Horticultural products 18.0 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.0 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 Fruits and vegetables, processed 4.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 Cotton and linters 4.3 4.8 4.0 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.4 Other exports 5.6 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8
Total agricultural exports 82.2 115.5 98.5 95.7 97.5 99.7 101.2 103.2 105.9 108.6 110.8 113.0
Bulk commodity exports 31.5 50.7 37.6 35.4 35.6 35.8 35.5 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.1 38.5 High-value product exports 50.6 64.8 60.9 60.2 62.0 63.8 65.6 67.5 69.3 71.1 72.7 74.4 High-value product share 61.6% 56.1% 61.8% 62.9% 63.6% 64.0% 64.9% 65.4% 65.4% 65.5% 65.6% 65.9%

Million metric tons Agricultural exports (volume):

Bulk commodity exports 125.4 139.4 112.8 119.4 121.3 122.8 123.2 124.4 125.9 127.4 129.2 131.0 Billion dollars Livestock, dairy, and poultry 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 Livestock and meats 8.9 8.7 8.4 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 Dairy products 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 Grain and feeds 6.0 7.9 8.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 Grain products 3.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1 Oilseeds and products 4.0 6.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 Vegetable oils 2.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 Horticultural products 32.4 34.7 36.1 37.3 38.7 40.2 41.8 43.4 45.1 46.9 48.7 50.6 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.3 Fruits and vegetables, processed 6.6 7.5 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 Wine and beer 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 Sugar and tropical products 14.1 16.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.7 19.3 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 Sugar and related products 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 Cocoa, coffee, and products 6.2 7.4 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 Other imports 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Total agricultural imports 70.1 79.3 81.0 83.0 85.7 89.1 92.4 96.1 99.5 102.9 106.4 110.1
Net agricultural trade balance 12.1 36.2 17.5 12.6 11.9 10.5 8.8 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.4 2.9 Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Notes: The projections were completed in November 2008 based on policy decisions and other information known at that time. For updates of the nearby year forecasts, see USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, published in February, May, August, and November. Notes: Other exports includes tobacco, seeds, sugar and tropical products, and beverages and preparations. Bulk commodity expor ts covers wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value product (HVP) exports is calculated as total exports less the bulk comm odities. HVP's include semiprocessed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical pr oducts. Other imports include cotton, tobacco, and planting seeds. Agricultural imports (value):

### 62 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 29. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections CPI category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price indexes: Food commodities 1 138.0 146.0 145.6 143.8 146.8 149.1 150.3 152.2 153.0 153.7 154.3 155.6

Food grains 186.0 258.0 277.8 232.9 224.3 219.1 213.1 212.2 216.3 218.7 219.6 220.5 Oil-bearing crops 137.0 202.0 177.0 175.0 175.0 174.0 172.0 174.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 176.0 Vegetables 2 150.6 152.0 166.5 168.2 170.5 172.8 175.2 177.6 180.0 182.4 184.9 187.3 Fruit and nuts 157.0 148.0 152.1 156.2 160.5 164.9 169.4 174.0 178.7 183.5 188.5 193.5
Meat animals 118.0 117.0 121.7 123.1 130.5 135.7 137.9 140.3 139.5 139.1 138.2 138.0 Dairy products 147.0 141.0 121.0 121.0 118.3 117.2 118.3 119.1 119.5 120.3 121.4 124.1 Poultry and eggs 140.0 151.0 154.7 156.2 160.4 162.4 164.0 165.6 166.0 166.2 166.5 167.8
Changes in price indexes: Percent

Food commodities 1 17.9 5.8 -0.2 -1.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8

Food grains 38.8 38.7 7.7 -16.2 -3.7 -2.3 -2.7 -0.4 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.4 Oil-bearing crops 37.0 47.4 -12.4 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 Vegetables 2 12.9 0.9 9.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Fruit and nuts 1.9 -5.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Meat animals 1.7 -0.8 4.0 1.2 6.0 4.0 1.6 1.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 Dairy products 48.5 -4.1 -14.2 0.0 -2.2 -1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2 Poultry and eggs 26.1 7.9 2.4 1.0 2.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 1990-92=100

1/ The aggregate price index for food commodities is a weighted average using the NASS relative weights, which are based on ave rage shares of farm cash receipts from 1990 to 1992. 2/ The price index for vegetables is a weighted average of the index for commercial vegetables and the index for potatoes and dry beans. Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Prices Summary; Economic Research Service.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 63 Table 30. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections CPI category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Consumer price indices
All food 202.916 214.106 220.5 226.9 233.4 239.5 245.0 250.6 255.7 261.0 266.3 272.1

F oo d away f rom h ome 206

. 659 215

. 769 224

. 0 231

. 2 238

. 6 245

. 8 252

. 7 259

. 8 266

. 8 274

. 0 281

. 4 289

. 0

Food at home 201.245 214.125 219.5 225.4 231.4 236.8 241.5 246.3 250.3 254.4 258.6 263.2

Meats 194.983 201.815 207.9 217.3 227.2 234.7 238.8 242.2 242.5 242.8 242.8 243.5

Beef and veal 211.060 220.586 227.2 239.7 251.3 261.4 266.9 272.0 271.8 270.5 268.5 267.9 Pork 180.912 185.034 189.7 196.1 205.9 210.5 212.0 212.1 211.2 212.1 213.1 214.4 Other meats 184.822 190.588 197.3 203.2 209.3 214.5 218.8 222.7 226.0 229.4 232.8 236.3 Poultry 191.360 200.901 204.5 215.3 224.9 227.4 228.5 229.2 227.3 224.9 223.0 223.2 Fish and seafood 219.087 232.122 242.6 251.1 258.6 266.4 274.4 282.6 291.1 299.8 308.8 318.1 Eggs 195.291 222.708 213.0 206.7 205.9 206.9 209.7 212.5 217.1 221.7 225.5 229.2 Dairy products 194.770 210.396 202.0 204.5 206.0 208.5 212.0 215.5 218.5 222.0 226.0 230.5

Fats and oils 172.921 196.751 202.6 207.1 211.4 216.0 221.1 226.3 231.4 236.8 242.5 248.4 Fruits and vegetables 262.628 278.932 289.8 295.7 301.9 308.1 314.7 321.3 328.0 334.9 341.9 349.1 Sugar and sweets 176.772 186.577 192.0 194.0 196.1 199.8 202.7 206.2 210.1 214.1 218.3 222.5 Cereals and bakery products 222.107 244.853 251.8 256.6 262.2 267.9 273.8 280.2 286.9 293.6 300.4 307.3 Nonalcoholic beverages 153.432 160.045 166.1 171.9 177.1 181.5 186.0 190.7 195.5 200.4 205.4 210.5 Other foods 188.244 198.103 206.2 212.4 218.2 223.7 228.9 234.2 239.5 245.0 250.7 256.4
Food expenditures:

All food 1,139.4 1,203.6 1,243.1 1,287.9 1,337.0 1,389.5 1,442.1 1,496.9 1,551.6 1,608.6 1,668.3 1,731.3 Food at home 583.7 617.8 632.0 651.1 670.2 689.3 708.2 727.7 746.3 765.5 785.6 807.1 Food away from home 555.7 585.8 611.1 636.8 666.8 700.2 733.9 769.2 805.3 843.1 882.7 924.2
Changes in consumer food prices:

All food 4.0 5.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2

Food away from home 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Food at home 4.2 6.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Meats 3.3 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.6 3.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3

Beef and veal 4.4 4.5 3.0 5.5 4.8 4.0 2.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 Pork 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.4 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Other meats 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Poultry 5.1 5.0 1.8 5.3 4.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 0.1 Fish and seafood 4.6 5.9 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Eggs 29.2 14.0 -4.4 -3.0 -0.4 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 Dairy products 7.4 8.0 -4.0 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Fats and oils 2.9 13.8 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Fruits and vegetables 3.8 6.2 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Sugar and sweets 3.1 5.5 2.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 Cereals and bakery products 4.4 10.2 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 Nonalcoholic beverages 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other foods 1.8 5.2 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1982-84=100

Billion dollars

Percent

### 64 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 

### Agricultural Trade Global economic growth slows durin g the beginning of the 2009-18 projection period, but recovers after 2010 and remains slightly abov e the historical average long-term growth rate during the last half of the period. This renewed growth pr ovides a foundation for gains in world demand for agricultural products. Although the expansion in global biof uels production slows in the projections, it also adds to global demand for agricultural commodities. Developing countries are the main source of growth in world demand and trade. Food consumption and feed use are particularly responsi ve to income growth in those countries, with movement away from staple foods and increa sed diversification of diets. Demand from developing countries is further rein forced by population growth rates that remain nearly twice that of developed countries. Developing countries account for mo re than two-thirds of the proj ected increase in world meat imports. Generally, middle-income countries with increasing per capita in comes are expected to have the most rapid growth. However, large incr eases in poultry and beef imports are projected for Africa and the Middle East. Strong policy suppor t for domestically produced meat is expected to motivate growth in feed grain imports in regions where limited land availability or agroclimatic conditions preclude expandi ng domestic crop production. World consumption of aggregate grains and oilseeds exceeded production in 7 of the past 8 years. As a result, global stocks droppe d sharply. Crop prices rose dr amatically between 2003 and 2008. In response, world crop area for 2008 crops increa sed sharply and favorable weather caused world production of grains and oilseeds to jump nearly 5 percent. A lthough prices have plummeted since mid-2008, they are projected to remain above pre-2007 levels in the coming decade. World agricultural production rises in response to high prices and technology enhancements. However, limited ability to expand planted area in many countries and slowing global productivity gains constrain production growth and raise uncertainties about future supply response. Traditional exporters of a wide ra nge of agricultural commodities, such as Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United St ates, remain important in the coming decade. But countries that are making signifi cant investments in their agricu ltural sectors, including Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, are expected to have an increasing presence in export markets for basic agricultural commodities.
General International Assumptions Trade projections to 2018 are founded on assumpti ons concerning trends in foreign area, yields, and use and on the assumption that countries comply with existi ng bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural tr ade. The projections incorporate the effects of trade agreements and domestic policies in pl ace or signed by November 2008. International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. Domestic agricultural and trade po licies in individual foreign countri es are assumed to continue to evolve along their current paths, based on th e consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and commodity analysts. In partic ular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to continue. Similarly, th e development and use of technology and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to cont inue evolving based on past performance and analysts’ judgments regarding future developments.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 65 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products

Million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

Coarse grains

1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units. Wheat



### Global trade in soybeans and soybean products ha s risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has surpassed not only wheat—the traditional leader in agricultural commodity trade—but also total coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats , millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong growth in global demand for vegetable oil and prot ein meal, particularly in China and other Asian countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse grains trade throughout the next decade.

 Production of wheat, coarse grains, and oilseed s (including soybeans) compete with each other and with other crops for limited cropland. Higher prices for vegetable oils, as a result of increased demand for food use as well as for biodiesel and othe r industrial uses, are bringing previously uncropped land in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malays ia into soybean and palm oil production.

 In the projections, the growth in total area plan ted to all crops rises less than a half-percent per year in most countries. Ar ea expansion occurs more rapidly in countries with a reserve of available land and policies th at enable farmers to respond to higher world prices. Such countries include Brazil, some other South Am erican countries, some Eastern European countries, Russia, and Ukraine. About two- thirds of the projected growth in global production is derived from rising yields. Th e growth rate in crop yields has slowed somewhat during the last several decades and is projected to continue to do so.

 The impact of slowing growth in total crop production is partially offset by declining growth in world population. Nonetheless, increasing population is a significant factor driving overall growth in demand for agricultu ral products. Additionally, rising per capita income in many countries augments populati on gains in the demand for vegetable oils, meats, and horticultural products.

 In the coming decade, overall gains in globa l grain trade come from a broad range of countries, particularly from countries in Africa and the Middle East.

 During the projection period, world average per cap ita use of vegetable oils is projected to rise 12 percent, compared with 5 percent for to tal coarse grains and 3 percent for meat. Per capita use is projected to decline nearly 3 percent for wheat an d 2 percent for rice.

### 66 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks
Investment in biofuel production capacity is occurring in many count ries. The main feedstocks used are corn and sugarcane for ethanol and rapeseed and soybean oil for biodiesel. Other feedstocks being used include ba rley, wheat, rye, wine, and cassa va for ethanol production and a variety of other first-use vegetable oils and re cycled oils and fats from the food industry for biodiesel.
Biofuel Assumptions Used for the USDA Projections The demand for biofuels feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries, although at a slower pace than in recent years. The projections are based on a combination of historical biofuel production data, USDA interp retation of statements by foreign governments about their plans for biofuel development, and ot her information about potential investments in biofuel production capacity.
Country Assumptions
EU: The EU has a “target” to obtain 5.75 percen t of transportation fuel from biofuels by 2010. Since the 5.75-percent “target” wa s set, the EU has established a “mandate” that biofuels account for 10 percent of transportation fuel use by 2020. The USDA projections assume the EU increases oilseed and vegetable oil imports from Russia and Ukraine to help boost biodiesel production. Nevertheless, progress toward the mandate is assumed to be behind schedule throughout the projection period.
Brazil: Sugarcane is the feedstock for nearly all of Brazil’s etha nol production. In southern Brazil, some land has already been shifted from grain and oilseeds production to sugarcane. The projections assume this trend continues, but at a slower pace. Biodi esel production is also projected to expand, using s oybean oil as the feedstock.
Canada: Canadian biodiesel production is project ed to expand between 2009 and 2018. Most of the increased production will be from rapeseed produced and processed in the Prairie Provinces. Ethanol production is also proj ected to continue expanding. Argentina: The production of biodiesel in Argentina is assumed to more than double during the projection period. To effectively use its large cr ushing capacity, Argentina is projected to import some soybeans from other South American countries. Other Europe and the former Soviet Union: This region is assumed to respond to the EU’s increasing demand for biodiesel by expanding rapeseed production. In Russia and Ukraine, rapeseed production rises more th an 80 percent in the projections . Some of the production gains are destined for export to the EU, either as rapeseed oil or as ra peseed for crushing in the EU.
China: In 2008, approximately 3 million tons of corn we re used to produce fuel ethanol in China. The government is trying to slow the growth in corn-based ethanol produ ction, and is focusing on the use of nongrain feedstocks such as sweet potatoes and cassava.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 67 0 25 50 75 100 125 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other

Africa & M. East

China

NAFTA

Latin America

FSU & OE 1/ European Union 2/

East Asia Global wheat imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992.


### Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countri es where income and population gains underpin increases in demand. Im portant growth market s include Sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Algeria, Indonesia, th e Philippines, and Brazil. World wheat trade (including flour) expands by nearly 22 million tons (18 percent) between 2009 and 2018 to 141.6 million tons.

 Egypt maintains its position as the world’s largest importing countr y, as imports climb slowly to more than 9 million tons. Imports by Brazil, Algeria, and Indonesia are each projected to exceed 7 million tons. Brazil’s c limate generally does not favor wheat, and in some key wheat-producing states , winter corn is expected to provide better producer returns than wheat.

 Imports by developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East rise 11.6 million tons and account for 53 percent of the total increase in world wheat trade. Saudi Arabia has adopted a policy to pha se out wheat production subsidies by 2016 because of water scarcity concerns, and imports are projected to jump by 3 million tons by the end of the projections.

 In most developing countries, little change in per capita wheat consumption is expected but imports expand modestly because of population growth and limited potential to expand production.

 Changing consumption patterns will boost wheat imports by some major importing countries. In Indonesia, Vietnam, and some other Asian countries, strong economic growth and diversification of diets are projected to increase pe r capita wheat consumption.

 Lower wheat-to-corn price ratios during most of the projection peri od enable wheat to compete effectively with corn for feed use in a number of countries. Europe is expected to continue to account for about ha lf of global wheat feeding.

### 68 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 25 50 75 100 125 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other

FSU & OE 1/
European Union 2/

Australia
Argentina

Canada

United States Global wheat exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

### The traditional five largest wheat-exporting nati ons (the United States, Australia, the EU, Argentina, and Canada) account fo r 70 percent of world trade in 2009-18. This is down from 89 percent in 1997/98, mostly due to increased exports from the Black Sea area. U.S. wheat exports are projected to account for less than 21 percent of global wheat trade at the end of the projection period, down from 26 percent in the past 5 years. By the end of 2007, the global stocks-to-use ratio had declined to the lowest level on record. A significant 2008/09 rebound in global production enabled stocks to jump and precipitated a decline in prices. However, after working down these larger stocks, much of it lower quality feed wheat, stocks are pr ojected to continue to be lower than during the 1990s. Prices are proj ected to remain above pre-2007 average levels.

 Shares of the world wheat market held by Ca nada and the United States decline slightly, while shares increase for the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina.

 In Canada, increased demand for vegetable oils, especially rapeseed oil for human consumption and biodiesel production, and increasing demand for barley, are expected to reduce wheat area and limit any growth in wheat exports.

 Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan have become si gnificant wheat exporters in recent years. Low costs of production, new investment in their agricultural sect ors, and generally favorable weather since 2001 have enabled their combined world market share to climb to about 20 percent in the last 3 years. Russi a is expected to increase wheat production for domestic feed use. Exports from Ukraine and Russia are projected to continue gaining market share, more than offsetting a slight decline in the shar e held by Kazakhstan. However, because of the region’s highly variab le weather and yields, year-to-year volatility in production and trade can be expected.

 Wheat exports by Turkey and other smaller exporters change little or trend slowly downward during the projection period. Although India has expor ted some wheat in recent years, exports are expected to be minimal as domestic demand expands as fast as production.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 69 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other 1/ Corn Barley Sorghum Global coarse grain trade, by type

Million metric tons

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.


### Growth in coarse grain trade is strongly linke d to expansion of livestock production in regions unable to meet their own feed needs. Key grow th markets include China, Mexico, North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast As ia. Japan and South Korea are large but mature import markets for coarse grains.

 Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets. Corn accounts for an average of 75 percent of a ll coarse grain trade through th e projection period, followed by barley (17 percent) and sorghum (5 percent).

 Commercialization of livestock feeding ha s been a driving for ce behind the growing dominance of corn in in ternational feed grain markets. Ho gs and ruminants, such as cattle and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively price-sensitive across alternate feed sources . However, as pork and poultry production become increasingly commercialized, higher qu ality feeds are used, boosting the demand for corn and soybean meal.

 Mexico’s corn imports rise throughout the projection period and so rghum imports resume growth after 2009/10. Mexico’s imports of cr acked corn are projected to be almost completely replaced by whole-grain corn. Cracked corn from the United States and Canada has had duty-free access to the Mexi can market since 2003. However, effective January 1, 2008, Mexico ended it s transitional tariff -rate quota on U.S. and Canadian corn, as part of the North American Free Trade Ag reement (NAFTA). This change removed the incentive for Mexico to import cracked corn instead of whole-grain corn.

### 70 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 World coarse grain trade expands nearly 19 m illion tons (16 percent) from 2009 to 2018. The share of global coarse grain production used as anim al feed declines sligh tly from about 63 percent in recent years to 60 percent during the projections . Industrial uses, such as starch, ethanol, and malt production, are much smaller but growing. The sh are of coarse grains used for food has been declining during the last decade and is projected to continue doing so.

 World grain prices have risen during the last several years as global grain stocks declined sharply. Although the higher prices are expect ed to continue stimulating grain production, neither stocks-to-use ratios nor prices return to levels prevailing during the last three decades.

 Steady longrun growth in the livestock sector s of developing countries in Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East is proj ected to account for much of the growth in world coarse grain import s during the next decade.

 Russia is expected to produce more coarse grains for domestic feed use.

 Mexico’s corn imports are projected to rise from 9.1 million tons in 2009/10 to 11.5 million in 2018. With the conclusion of NAFT A’s liberalization of U.S.-Mexico corn trade, growth in Mexican corn imports will be influenced by rising feed demand from Mexico’s poultry sector.

 The North Africa and the Middle East region is expected to experience continued growth in import demand for grain and protein m eals through 2018 as rising populations and increasing incomes sustain strong demand gr owth for domestically produced animal products. In Egypt, government policy has sh ifted toward allowing more poultry meat imports. Still, poultry producti on is projected to rise, boostin g corn imports more than 2 million tons.

 In Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, increasing im ports of selected meat cuts constrain meat production, resulting in no growth in coarse grain imports.

 Countries in Southeast Asia raise corn im ports 1.7 million tons (32 percent) during the projection period as their increased demand for livestock products exceeds their capacity to grow more feed grains. 0 30 60 90 120 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other European Union 1/
Africa & ME
China & HK

Mexico

Latin America
FSU & OE 2/

East Asia Global coarse grain import s

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 71 The United States dominates world trade in coarse grains, particularly cor n. However, increasing domestic corn use for ethanol, large competing supplies of feed wheat, and reduced world trade limit U.S. corn exports at the beginning of the projection period. As stocks of feed wheat are consumed and world corn trade recovers, U.S. corn exports are projected to resume growth after declining in 2008/09. The U.S. share of world corn trade remains between 55 and 60 percent.

 Argentina, with a small domestic market, remain s the world’s second-largest corn exporter. Due to higher export taxes on grains, Argentina shifts some cropland from corn to soybean production and corn exports increase slowl y. Argentina and other South American countries increase corn exports to Chile to support its expanding pork exports.

 The EU becomes a more competitive corn exporter. Increases in area and yields enable it to more than double shipments during the projections. Exports from other European countries are also projected to climb steadily.

 Corn exports from some countries of the form er Soviet Union (FSU), primarily Ukraine, rise to nearly 5 million tons by 2018. Fa vorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness, and greater investment in their agricultu ral sectors stimulate corn production. However, efforts to increase m eat production and reduce meat imports, keep exports from growing more rapidly.

 Brazil’s corn exports are near record high levels during the ea rly years of the projections. In the last several years, Br azil has targeted the EU’s demand for non-genetically modified grain. This marketing opportunity is assumed to diminish as Brazil legalizes planting of genetically modified corn vari eties and the EU reduces impor ts. Also, strong growth in domestic demand from its livestock and poultr y sectors and the prof itability of growing soybeans limits corn production and exports.

 China becomes a net importer of about 2 million tons of corn at the end of the projections as imports grow slowly while exports remain small. China’s st rengthening domestic demand is driven by its expanding liv estock and industrial sectors. 0 20 40 60 80 100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other Eur opean Union 1/
FSU 2/
Brazil A rgentin a
China
United States Global corn exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 2/ Former Soviet Union.

### 72 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 5 10 15 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other

Other N. Africa & M. East

Saudi Arabia

China

FSU & OE 1/

Latin America 2/
Japan

USA Global barley imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Includes Mexico.


### Global barley trade expands 3.3 million tons (17 percent) during the projection period. Rising demand for both malting and feed barley underpin the increased trade.

 Feed barley imports by North African and Midd le Eastern countries grow steadily over the next decade. In the mid-1990s, corn overtook barl ey as the principal coarse grain imported by these countries, due mainly to rising poultr y production. This patt ern is expected to continue through the projection period. Howe ver, the North Africa and Middle East region is expected to remain the worl d’s largest barley importing area.

 Saudi Arabia—the world’s foremost barl ey-importing country—accounts for over 35 percent of world barley trade through the co ming decade. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are used primarily as feed for camels, goats, and sheep.

 Iran is another Middle East country that is projected to increase barley imports during the coming decade.

 International demand for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in many developing countries, notably China—the world’s largest malting-barley importer. China’s beer demand is rising steadily due to growth in incomes and population. Expansion in China’s brewing capacity is bei ng aided by foreign invest ment. Australia and Canada are China’s main sources of malting barley imports.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 73 0 5 10 15 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 European Union 1/

FSU 2/

Australia

Canada

Other Global barley exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 2/ Former Soviet Union.


### Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from the EU, Australia, and Canada. However, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in international feed barley markets and remain so throughout the projection period.

 In the EU, reform of the Common Agricultural Policy abolished EU intervention for rye and stimulated the allocation of more area to barley production. EU exports to non-EU countries are projected to climb more than 30 percent to 7 million tons over the projection period, and account for 30 percent of world trade.

 The FSU remains a major barley exporter throughout the coming decade as exports remain around 6 million tons. Together, the FSU and EU account for about 60 percent of world barley exports by 2018.

 Malting barley is a different quality than feed barley and commands a substantial price premium over feed barley. Th is premium is expected to in fluence planting decisions in Canada and Australia and, in both countries, malti ng barley’s share of total barley area is expected to rise during the pr ojection period. An increase in Canada’s total barley area offsets a decline in the area planted to wheat and minor coarse grains.

### 74 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6 8 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 1/ Mexico Japan Global sorghum imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Republic of South Africa.



### World sorghum trade, which averaged nearly 6.7 m illion tons during the last decade, declines to 5 million tons in the early years of the projection pe riod before rising to 7 million tons at the end. Sorghum trade is driven mostly by U.S. exports to Mexico and Japan.

 The EU normally imports small quantities of so rghum as part of the Spain-Portugal Accession Agreement, but because of domestic and global corn production shortfalls and limited availability of nongenetically modified corn to import, it became the world’s largest sorghum importer in 2007/08. EU corn pr oduction returned to normal le vels in 2008 and its future imports of both corn and sorghum are projected to be modest.

 Mexico has accounted for about half of world so rghum imports until the mo st recent years. Mexico’s sorghum imports are projected to incr ease to nearly 4 million tons by 2018. At this import level, Mexico again accounts for more than 50 percent of world sorghum imports.

 Japan imports a fairly constant volume of sorghum (1.3 million tons) throughout the period to maintain diversity and stability in its feed grain supplies.

 The United States is the larges t exporter of sorghum, accounting for more than 80 percent of world trade in 2000-05. During the early part of the projection period, U.S. exports, and its share of world trade decline. During the latter half of the period, U.S. exports and its share of world trade recover but remain near the levels of the past two years.

 The primary sorghum markets for Argentina, th e world’s second larges t exporter, are Japan, Chile, and Europe. In Argentina, prices and profitability are expect ed to favor planting soybeans and corn, so sorghum exports remain relatively flat duri ng the projection period.

 Brazil has begun to export small quantities of sorghum and the volume is projected to rise during the projection period. In the Central-West region of Br azil, sorghum is increasingly planted during the dry season betw een crops of soybeans or cotton.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 75 0 20 40 60 80 100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil Soybeans and soybean meal, million metric tons

Soybeans

Soybean meal Soybean oil Soybean oil, million metric tons



### Strong income and population growth in develo ping countries generate increasing demand for vegetable oils for food consumption and for prot ein meals used in livestock production. Demand for vegetable oils to be used as feedstocks for bi odiesel is also projected to increase. Because a number of countries prefer to import oilseeds fo r crushing, rather than import soybean meal or soybean oil, world trade in soybeans expands more rapidly than for soybean meal or soybean oil.

 Prices for vegetable oils rise due to incr easing consumer demand in developing countries and the expansion of biodiesel production. As demand increases for vegetable oils faster than for protein meals, vegetable oil prices ri se more rapidly than for oilseeds and protein meals.

 Many countries with limited opportunity to e xpand oilseed production co ntinue investment in oilseed crushing capacity, such as China a nd some countries in No rth Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. As a result, import de mand for soybeans and rapeseed grows rapidly. However, strong competition in international pr otein meal markets is expected to shift some of the import demand from oilseeds to cheaper meals.

 China’s expansion of domestic crushing capac ity significantly influences the composition of world trade by raising global import demand for soybeans and other oilseeds rather than for oilseed products.

 In Argentina, uncertainties about grain policies cause farmers to shift some land to soybean production. However, future soybean expansion is constr ained by slower rates of conversion of pastur e land to cropland.

 Brazil’s rapidly increasing soybean area enables it to gain a larger share of world soybean and soybean meal exports, despit e increasing domestic feed use. Its share of world exports of soybeans plus the soybean equivalent of soybean meal rises from about 30 percent in recent years to 33 percent by 2018.

 EU rapeseed area increases early in the projec tions in response to the demand for rapeseed oil for biodiesel production. Only small am ounts of soybean oil are used for biodiesel production.

### 76 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 20 40 60 80 100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other China & Hong Kong N. Africa & M. East Latin America 1/ East Asia European Union 2/ Global soybean imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

### World soybean trade is projected to rise rapi dly, climbing nearly 27 million tons (33 percent) during the next decade.

 The EU was the world’s leading importer of soybeans until 2002. However, increases in grain and rapeseed meal feeding and rising im ports of soybean meal have resulted in declining soybean imports si nce then. These trends are projected to continue.

 China’s soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for nearly half of world trade. China will face policy decisions regarding trad eoffs in producing or importing corn and soybeans. The projections assume that Chin ese policies will suppor t maintaining domestic corn production and importing soybeans. Thus, China accounts for more than 80 percent of the projected 27-million-ton growth in glob al soybean imports over the next 10 years. Significant investments in oilseed crushing in frastructure by China drive strong gains in soybean imports as China seeks to capture the value added from processing oilseeds into protein meal and vegetable oil. The use of vegetable oils for bi ofuels production is assumed to have a negligible impact on China’s total vegetable oil use.

 East Asia’s trade outlook is dominated by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to importing meat and other livestock products. As a result, this region’s import demand for protein meal and oilseeds does not rise dur ing the coming decade despite rising meat consumption.

 Mexico’s soybean imports are projected to increase by about one-third during the projection period. These imports will support the production of soybean meal for the Mexican poultry industry and soybean oil for domestic food consumption.

 For Argentina to operate its expanding crushing facilities at full capacity, it is expected to import 5 million tons of soybeans from Braz il, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia by the end of the period.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 77 0 20 40 60 80 100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other
Other South America
Brazil Argentina
United States Global soybean exports

Million metric tons



### The three leading soybean exporters—the Un ited States, Brazil, and Argentina—have accounted for more than 90 percent of world trad e in recent years. Their market share is projected to decline to sligh tly less than 90 percent as expor ts rise from other exporting countries, such as Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia.

 With continuing area gains, Brazil maintains its position as the world’s leading exporter of soybeans and soybean products. Combating so ybean rust disease increases production costs. However, because of the increased domestic demand for soybean meal for livestock feed and soybean oil for human consumpti on and biodiesel production, soybeans remain more profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. It is assumed that some land in southern Brazil will shift from oilseed to corn production during the middle of the projection period in response to higher corn pr ices and more limited competition from U.S. corn exports. Still, with e xpanded soybean plantings in th e Cerrado regions, the growth rate for Brazil’s soybean planted area is proj ected to average more than 3.5 percent per year, reaching more than 30 million hectares by 2018. Soybean exports are projected to rise more than 80 percent.

 Argentina’s export tax rates are higher for soybeans than for soybean products, which favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and ex porting the products. However, in response to world demand for soybeans for crushing, Arge ntina’s soybean exports have risen sharply and remain above 14 million tons throughout the projection period.

 Other South American countries, principall y Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, expand exports nearly 50 percent to more than 10 millio n tons. Five million tons are destined for the crushing industry in Argentina.

 Russia and Ukraine respond to hi gher international market prices for oilseeds by increasing production of rapeseed and soybeans. Although rapeseed production will be most affected, Ukrainian soybean exports are pr ojected to increase somewhat.

 In the United States, reduced soybean acreage and increased domestic crush limit exportable supplies, but their competitivene ss is aided by the dollar’s value remaining below the early 2000s level.

### 78 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other European Union 1/ Southeast Asia Latin America 2/ N. Africa & Middle East FSU & OE 3/ East Asia Global soybean meal imports
Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.


### World trade in soybean meal grows briskly during the projections, rising more than 17 million tons (nearly 30 percent) by 2018. C ontinuing growth in the demand for livestock products, limited capability to increase oilseed production, and rela tively lower world prices for protein meals boost demand for soybean meal by a number of countries with rising middle-inco me populations. Lower import prices for soybean meal relative to soybean s and grains provide incen tives for countries to use imported soybean meal at a higher rate in livestock feed rations.

 The EU remains the world’s la rgest destination for soybean meal throughout the projection period, despite increased domes tic feeding of grains and ra peseed meal. Although there will be abundant supplies of low-cost rapeseed meal available for feed as a result of the biofuels expansion, there are technical limits on the amount of rapeseed meal that can be incorporated in livestock ratios. As a result, growth in soybean meal imports is expected to continue. Also, an increase in the dairy production quota increases soybean meal feeding.

 The regions of Southeast Asia, Latin Ameri ca, and North Africa and the Middle East all become larger importers of soybean meal due to increasing demand for livestock feed in many countries.

 Mexico’s strong growth in de mand for protein feed and vege table oils is projected to continue.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 79 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other Argentina
Brazil United States Global soybean meal exports
Million metric tons



### Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain th e three major exporters in international soybean meal markets. Together, they account for nearly 90 percent of total world soybean meal trade during the next 10 years. Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal expor ter, increases its share of the world market from around 45 percent in recent years to 55 percent. Brazil’s share of world exports remains in the 20-25 perc ent range while the shares held by the United States and other exporters fall.

 Argentina imposes higher export taxes on soybe ans than on soybean products. This has provided an incentive for the country to de velop a large oilseed crushing capacity. Argentina maintains high utilization of its growing crushing capacity by importing soybeans from Brazil and other South American countries.

 In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion of the poultry and pork sectors limits increases in soybe an meal exports. Also, domestic soybean crushing capacity is not expect ed to grow as fast as soyb ean production because Brazil’s differential export tax structur e favors exporting soybeans rather than soybean meal or soybean oil.

 U.S. soybean meal exports hold steady at ar ound 8 million tons throughout the projections, but the U.S. share of world trade declines st eadily from more than 14 percent in recent years to less than 11 percent by 2018.

 The EU continues to be a small but steady e xporter of soybean meal to Russia and other East European countries. India remains an exporter, although export volume declines as domestic use, especially fo r poultry feed, rapidly expands.

### 80 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other EU, FSU, & OE 1/ India China Other Asia 2/ N. Africa & M. East Latin America 3/ Global soybean oil imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Asia excluding India and China. 3/ Includes Mexico.


### World demand for soybean oil imports climbs 3.2 million tons (29 percent) in the projections, bolstered by rising food use and increased demand for use in biofuel pro duction. China and India are the world’s two larges t soybean oil importers, primarily for food use. In recent years, their combined imports have been around 3.5 million tons , more than a third of total world imports. The growth in soybean oil trade will be constraine d by competition with palm oil, which claims the top ranking in world vegetable oil trade.

 Import demand for soybean oil rises in nearly all countries and regions. Income and population growth in North Africa, the Middle Ea st, and Latin America contribute to gains in soybean oil imports. Although rising internat ional prices for soybean oil will temper consumption, especially in developing count ries, imports by the North Africa and the Middle East region are projected to be exceeded only by those of China.

 India remains one of the world’s largest soybean oil importers. Factor s that contribute to continued growth in imports include burgeoni ng domestic demand for vegetable oils and limited capacity for domestic production of oilseeds. Low yields, associated with erratic rainfed growing conditions and lo w input use, inhibit growth of oilseed production in India. India sharply reduced edible oil tariffs to zer o in 2008 in response to high world prices. Since then, soybean oil tariffs ha ve been raised. However, the projections assume that the tariff rates will return to near traditional re lationships, and eliminate a tariff disadvantage for soybean oil relative to palm and other oils.

 China experiences a growing demand for vegeta ble oils. However, land-use competition from other crops constrains area planted to oilseed crops. Even with strong increases in soybean imports for crush, domestic demand out paces vegetable oil production and fuels a moderate expansion in soybean oil imports.

 The EU imports more soybean oil to replace some of the rapeseed oil that is used in the production of biodiesel, although impor ts of sunflowerseed oil and palm oil will also be in great demand.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 81 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other Argentina Brazil European Union 1/ United States Global soybean oil exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992.


### Argentina’s and Brazil’s combined share of worl d soybean oil exports ri ses slowly from around 80 percent early in the projec tions to nearly 85 percent by the end of the projections.

 Argentina is the leading exporte r of soybean oil, reflecting the country’s large crushing capacity, its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors exports of soybean products rather than soyb eans. Increases in soybean crush and soybean oil exports are supported by gains in Argen tine soybean production due to extensive double-cropping, further adjustments in crop-past ure rotations, and the addition of marginal lands in the northwest part of the country. Argentina also increases soybean imports from other South American countries in order to more fully utilize its crushing capacity. Despite continued expansion in Argentina’s biodies el production, soybean oil exports are also expected to rise strongly.

 Brazil’s expansion of soybean production in to new areas of cultivation enables it to increase both its volume of soybean oil e xports and its share of world trade.

 The United States remains the world’s third-larg est soybean oil exporter. U.S. soybean oil exports are constrained by increased use for biodiesel production, and the U.S. share of world trade is projected to fall below the averag e of recent years. However, U.S. exports will be supported as imports supplement the domestic edible oil supply. U.S. imports of canola oil from Canada and palm oil from South east Asia are projected to continue to grow strongly.

 In the EU, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limite d by the growth in biodiesel production.

### 82 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other

Other Asia

Indonesia

N. Africa & M. East

Sub-Saharan Africa
EU, FSU, & OE 1/

Latin America 2/ Global rice imports
Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico. 

### Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.4 pe rcent per year from 2009 to 2018. By 2018, global rice trade exceeds 38 million tons, 22 percent above the 2006 record. The main factors driving the expansion in global trade are a steady growth in demand—largely due to population growth in developing countries—and the inability to signifi cantly boost production in key importing nations.

 Long-grain varieties account for ar ound three-fourths of global ri ce trade and are expected to account for the bulk of trade growth over the next decade. Medium- and short-grain varieties account for 10-12 percent of global trade, with Northeast Asia th e largest market. Aromatic rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, makes up most of the rest of global rice trade.

 Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh become the three largest rice -importing countries by the end of the projection period. By 2018, each c ountry is projected to import 2.3 million tons of rice or more. These three countries have limited ability to e xpand production and are expected to account for nearly half of the incr ease in global rice imports over the next decade.

 In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, strong demand growth is driven by rapidly expanding populations. Producti on growth is limited by climat e in the Middle East and by infrastructure deficiencies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saha ran Africa accounts for 29 percent of the increase in world rice trade between 2009 and 2018. Iraq and Saudi Arabia account for most of the increase in imports by the Middle East.

 The Central America and Caribbean region is proj ected to expand imports over the next decade, increasing almost 0.5 million tons to more th an 2.1 million by 2018. Population growth and rising per capita incomes boost rice consump tion and raise this region’s imports.

 The EU will remain a major market for rice, although import growth will be modest. Consumption growth will be driven by a larg er immigrant population. North American imports will also expand over the next decade, with both total and per capita consumption rising.

 Imports by the former Soviet Union are projecte d to decline as a resu lt of strong production growth and stagnant demand.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 83 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other

India

China

Thailand

Pakistan

Vietnam

South America

United States Global rice exports

Million metric tons



### Asia remains the largest rice-exporting region throughout the projection period.

 Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s largest rice- exporting countries, account for half of all rice exports and more than 40 percent of the gr owth in world exports in the coming decade. Thailand’s exports increase 2.6 million tons to more than 12 million by 2018. Both area and yield are projected to incr ease in Thailand. Vietnam’s export expansion is smaller, rising from 5.1 to 5.6 million tons. Per capita consumption declines for both exporters.

 Pakistan is currently the worl d’s third-leading rice exporter and exports are projected to slightly increase over the next decade to 3.8 million tons by 2018. Pakistan has sharply boosted rice area and production in the past few years. In 2008, Pakistan gained markets due to India’s ban on exports of non-basmati rice. Pakistan’s ag ricultural sector is confronting a growing water shortage and a decaying infrastruc ture, limiting production and export gains.

 The United States is currently the fourth-largest rice-exporti ng country. The United States is expected to increase exports from 3.3 milli on tons early in the projections to 4.2 million by 2018. A slight area expansi on, continued yield growth, an d slow growth in domestic use result in larger exportabl e supplies. The United Stat es becomes the third-largest exporting country early in the projection period.

 India has typically been the third- or fourth-largest ri ce exporter since the mid-1990s, although export levels have been rather volatile, primarily due to fluctuating stock levels and government policies. India’s exports are currently limited by a ban on non-basmati sales. Exports are projected to increase about 700,000 tons to 3.6 million by 2018 as production growth outpaces consumption and India’s current export ban is removed. India’s production is cons trained by slow progress in raising average yields.

 China, the sixth-largest rice-exporting countr y, is projected to raise exports by 1.1 million tons to 2.8 million tons by 2018. The increase in exports is primarily due to a decline in per capita consumption. Little change in pr oduction or total disappearance is expected. Higher yields are projected to offset declining area. Reductions in per capita consumption, a result of continued diet diversification re sulting from higher incomes, are expected to offset population growth.

 Australia virtually exits the rice export ma rket due to competing demands for water and, thus, uncertainty regarding avai lability of irrigation water.

### 84 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other China Latin America 1/ Southeast Asia 2/ South Asia 3/ EU, FSU, & OE 4/ East Asia Global cotton imports

Million bales

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3/ Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 

### With global cotton consumption growing dramaticall y, international trade has become increasingly important in world cotton markets. During th e last decade, world c onsumption climbed at a 3.8-percent annual growth rate while world trade rose 4.2 percent a ye ar. Not only has textile trade liberalization boosted world cotton demand through in creased efficiency, but geographic shifts in mill use of cotton have increased the role of trad e in meeting the global textile industry’s need for cotton. Trade’s importance has rebounded in recent years as the textile sectors in China and Pakistan have grown substantia lly faster than their domestic cotton production. Imports are expected to increase in a number of other Asian countries as well. Asia ’s share of world cotton imports is projected to rise from less than 72 percent in 2009 to more than 76 percent in 2018.

 The textile industries in China, India, and Pa kistan have been the major beneficiaries of textile trade liberalization as a result of the elimination of Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas in 2005.

 China has been importing record amounts of cotton as its text ile industry’s growth rapidly accelerated with a booming economy and Worl d Trade Organization (WTO) accession. Both its textile industry and its cotton imports are expected to grow more slowly than the rapid increases since 2001. However, duri ng the next decade, the increase in cotton imports by China is projected to account for half of the global increas e in cotton imports.

 Pakistan has emerged as a major importer in r ecent years and is projec ted to be the world’s second largest importing country during the next 10 years.

 In recent years, Turkey’s textile industry has benefited from favorable trade access to the EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA quotas gives lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Turkey’s cotton imports are projected to rise slowly over the next 10 years, but not enough to keep its share of world trade from falling slightly.

 The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all stea dily reduce their cott on imports as textile trade reforms and/or higher wages in these countries drive textile production to countries with lower wages and other costs.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 85 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Other South America United States Sub-Saharan Africa Australia India Former Soviet Union Global cotton exports

Million bales



### Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to c ountries with favorable resource endowments and technology. Traditio nal producers with large land bases suitable for cotton production continue to benefit from pos t-MFA trade patterns. Such producer/exporter regions include the United States , Sub-Saharan Africa, and Brazil. The importance of technology has been highlighted by the impact of India’s rapi d adoption of genetically modified cotton, nearly all Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton.

 The United States continues as the worl d’s leading cotton e xporter throughout the projections. Exports climb 32 percent to more than 15 million bales by 2018/19, reaching one-third of overall world trade. However, the U.S. share of world exports is still well below the 40-percent average realized for the first half of this decade.

 The Central Asian countries of the former S oviet Union have been the principal U.S. competitors since the early 1990s. Howeve r, government policies in Central Asia promoting investment in textiles have result ed, to some extent, in exports of textile products rather than exports of raw cotton. Furthermore, the region’s cotton production is expected to grow only slowly.

 Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports rose rapidly durin g much of the last decade, but since 2006, low world prices and the strength of the Euro have led to lower outpu t and exports by West Africa. The 2008 planted area in the member countries of the Communaute Financiere Africaine (CFA) has fallen to its lowest leve l since just after the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc. Some rebound in output is expected as these eco nomies develop and as Bt cotton is adopted by the region’s producers. The region’s exports are projected to rise more than 20 percent during the next 10 years.

 Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of hybrid cotton containing the Bt gene, have raised India’s production and e xports in recent years. Yield growth is projected to continue as the area planted to Bt cotton expands. The increase in cotton output is expected to enable India to increase domestic textile production and remain a major cotton exporter and competitor to th e United States in world markets.

### 86 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 2 4 6 8 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Meat exports 1/
Million metric tons

1/ Major exporters. Beef and veal

Pork Poultry



### The growth in world per capita meat consumpti on slows during the coming decade to about a third of a percent per year. Still, meat shipments fr om major exporters trend upwards at 1.3 percent per year. Growth rates of exports from major expor ters of beef, pork, and poultry meat average 1.4, 1.7, and 0.9 percent per year, respectively, betw een 2009 and 2018. During this period, exports rise 0.9 million tons for beef, 0.9 million for por k, and 0.7 million for poultry. Rising per capita incomes combined with population gr owth in a number of countries are the driving forces behind the projected growth in global meat demand.

 Canadian beef exports are projected to rise slowly during the next decade. However, they do not reach the record set in 2002, prior to the Canada’s first case of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).

 In response to Russia’s policies to stimulate meat production, net imports of meat decline slowly during the coming decade.

 China became a pork net importer in 2008 due to swine disease problems and imports for the Olympics. China is projected to resume being a small net exporter within several years.

 EU beef exports remain well below the annual WTO limit on subsidized exports (817,000 tons) as policy changes lower beef production. These factors limit the EU’s competitiveness in international markets.

 Argentine beef exports declined sharply after the peak in 2005. Export taxes on beef and changes in other policies have made Argentina’s exports less competitive. Beef exports are projected to continue their downward trend as growth in consumption exceeds production.

 The projections assume no changes in the set of countries recognizing Brazil as free of footand-mouth disease (FMD), thus limiting Brazil’s ability to compete in some markets for pork.However, exports from Brazil’s expanding pork sector are expected to be competitive in pricesensitive markets such as Russia and Asian countries other than Japan and South Korea.

 Canada is projected to remain the world’s third largest pork exporter.

 During the coming decade, Brazil is expected to continue to be the largest exporter of poultry products, bolstered by low production costs and competitive export prices.



###  U.S poultry meat exports are projected to increase, due in part to the U.S. dollar’s low level relative to the early 2000s.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 87 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Russia East Asia N. Africa & M. East European Union 2/ Canada & Mexico United States Beef imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992.


### Beef imports by major importers expand nearly 1 million tons (19 percent) between 2009 and 2018. Traditionally, developed countr ies were the primary importers of beef. However, Brazil has become a large exporter of lower priced grass-fed beef that is imported by lower income countries. The projections assume gradua l recovery of U.S. exports to South Korea and Japan.

 Grain-fed beef imports are projec ted to rise slowly in higher income countries. U.S. beef exports to these countries are projecte d to rebuild over the next 10 years.

 Rapid import growth is projected for a numbe r of middle-income countries in northern Africa and the Middle East. Faster growth in population and per cap ita incomes stimulate demand.

 U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use in ground beef and processed products, rise s lightly through the period. Also, strong Asian imports of beef enable Austra lia and New Zealand to maintain significant levels of exports over the projection period.

 After declining in 2009, Mexico is projected to increase beef imports. Much of Mexico’s imports are of higher valued grain-fed beef from the United States.

 The projections assume that Russia’s tariff-ra te quota (TRQ) for beef, first imposed in 2003, remains in effect until 2009. In the longer run, the growth in Russia’s beef imports resumes as rising consumer demand outpaces gains in domestic production. Russia remains a large market for EU and South Americ an beef exports. In recent years, Russia has imported more beef from Uruguay, Pa raguay, and Australia as shipments from Argentina have declined.

### 88 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Mexico
East Asia
Russia China & Hong Kong
United States Pork imports 1/
Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 

### The major pork importers are projected to in crease trade by about 500,000 tons (11 percent) between 2009 and 2018.

 Mexican pork imports increase more than 190,000 t ons (36 percent) between 2009 and 2018, making Mexico one of the fastest growing pork importers. Increases in income and population are the primary drivers of Mexico’s increasing demand for pork. Mexico accounts for more than a third of the growth in global pork trade during the coming decade.

 Some higher income countries in East Asia increase pork imports to satisfy demand for selected cuts of pork, especia lly pork bellies. The increa se in South Korea’s imports accounts for nearly one-fourth of the increase in world pork imports during the projections.

 As with beef, the projections assume the TRQ that Russia imposed for pork in 2003 remains in effect until 2009. Although the TR Q initially lowered pork imports, Russian imports of competitively priced pork from th e EU and Brazil have risen as demand growth continues to exceed Russian pork production gain s. During the last half of the projection period, Russia’s policies to stim ulate grain and livestock prod uction are projected to cause pork imports to begin to decline.

 In China, increasing incomes boost per capita pork consumption and raise imports in the projections. Although China’s pork production and exports ha ve declined since 2006 due, in part, to swine disease problems, they are projected to resume gr owth within the next couple of years. The country resumes bei ng a small net exporter for the rest of the projection period. Hong Kong’s pork imports are expected to rise steadily during the coming decade.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 89 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Russia Other N Afr. & M. East European Union 2/ East Asia China & Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico Poultry imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

### Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by about 0.7 million tons (11 percent) from 2009 to 2018. Declines in im ports by Russia, non-EU Europe, and Japan are more than offset by large increases in imports by the rest of the world.

 Poultry imports by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, a nd other countries in the North Africa and Middle East region now account fo r 35 percent of major trader imports and are projected to rise more than imports by all other countri es combined. Economic and population growth will boost demand. Ongoing animal disease co ncerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in domestic production and increase demand for imports.

 Rising consumer incomes increase poultry dema nd and imports in Mexico and a number of Central American and Caribbean countries. Poultry products remain relatively less expensive than beef or pork, further s timulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase, but lags rising consumer de mand, and imports rise nearly 140,000 tons (21 percent) from 2009-2018.

 Russia’s poultry imports decline during the pr ojections, but it remains the world’s largest poultry importer. Policies th at reduce the poultry TRQ and stimulate grain production boost poultry production and restra in poultry imports. Slower growth in per capita income and consumption of poultry also reduce the need for imports.

 South Korea’s imports of poultry meat rise mo re than 75 percent during the coming decade. Although imports start from a low base level, increasing per capita consumption combined with environmental restrictions on expanding production boost imports.

 Because of avian influenza, some major poul try-exporting countries such as Thailand and China have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products. Due to their higher costs, these cooked poultry products will be marketed to developed or high-income countries in Asia, Europe , and the Middle East.

 China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production, while the country’s poultry imports and exports each grow by about 100,000 tons.

### 90 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 31. Coarse grains trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers Former Soviet Union 1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other Europe 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 European Union 2 19.8 2.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 North Africa & Middle East 30.6 33.4 33.3 33.4 34.1 34.9 35.9 36.7 37.5 38.3 39.4 40.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Japan 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 South Korea 9.4 7.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Taiwan 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 China 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 Other Asia & Oceania 4.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 Mexico 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.7 Central America & Caribbean 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 Brazil 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Other South America 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 Other foreign 4 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3

United States 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Total trade 126.7 110.1 114.1 114.7 116.5 118.5 120.8 123.2 125.3 127.8 130.2 132.7

Exporters European Union 2 4.6 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 China 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Argentina 17.0 12.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 Australia 4.0 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 Canada 6.5 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 Republic of South Africa 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 Other Europe 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Former Soviet Union 1 5.4 12.5 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.8 Other foreign 16.4 13.9 15.7 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5

United States 69.9 52.4 54.9 55.6 56.3 57.1 58.0 58.9 59.8 60.7 61.6 62.4 Percent
U.S. trade share 55.1 47.6 48.2 48.5 48.3 48.2 48.0 47.8 47.7 47.5 47.3 47.1 1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Includes Republic of South Africa. 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 91 Table 32. Corn trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers European Union 1 13.5 2.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Former Soviet Union 2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Egypt 4.2 4.3 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 Algeria 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 Morocco 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 Iran 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 Turkey 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Other N. Africa & Middle East 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 Japan 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 South Korea 9.3 7.2 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Taiwan 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 China 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 Indonesia 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 Malaysia 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 Other Asia & Oceania 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 Canada 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Mexico 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 Central America & Caribbean 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 Brazil 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other South America 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other foreign 4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

United States 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total trade 98.1 81.9 86.8 86.8 88.0 89.4 91.0 92.9 94.5 96.3 98.2 100.1
Exporters European Union 1 0.5 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 China 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Argentina 15.0 10.5 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 Brazil 7.0 9.0 10.6 7.7 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.1 Republic of South Africa 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Other Europe 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Former Soviet Union 2 2.2 3.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 Other foreign 8.9 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8

United States 61.9 48.3 50.8 51.4 52.1 52.7 53.3 54.0 54.6 55.2 55.9 56.5 Percent U.S. trade share 63.0 58.9 58.5 59.2 59.2 59.0 58.6 58.1 57.8 57.3 56.9 56.5 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Includes Republic of South Africa. 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 92 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 33. Sorghum trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Importers Japan 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Mexico 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 North Africa & Middle East 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 South America 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other 2 6.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Total trade 9.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 Exporters Argentina 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Australia 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Brazil 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Other foreign 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

United States 7.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 Percent U.S. trade share 76.8 71.8 70.7 69.8 69.4 69.5 71.4 72.5 73.9 74.4 75.4 76.1 1/ Includes the Republic of South Africa. 2/ EU-27 and the rest of the world. Excludes intra-EU trade. Includes unaccounted. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 34. Barley trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers Former Soviet Union 1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Japan 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taiwan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 China 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 European Union 2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Latin America 3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Algeria 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Saudi Arabia 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Morocco 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Tunisia 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Republic of South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Iran 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 Other N. Africa & M. East 1.5 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other foreign 4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

United States 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total trade 16.0 19.8 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.2

Exporters European Union 2 3.9 5.0 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.9 Australia 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Canada 3.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Russia 1.0 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Ukraine 1.0 5.5 4.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 Other Former Soviet Union 5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 Turkey 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Other foreign 1.9 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

United States 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Percent

U.S. trade share 5.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Includes Mexico. 4/ Includes unaccounted. 5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Exports, million metric tons Imports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 93 Table 35. Wheat trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers Algeria 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 Egypt 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 Morocco 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 Iran 0.2 4.5 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Iraq 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 Tunisia 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Other N. Africa & Middle East 9.5 11.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 1 10.0 12.3 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 Mexico 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 Central America & Caribbean 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 Brazil 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Other South America 6.0 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 European Union 2 6.9 5.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 Other Europe 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 Former Soviet Union 3 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 Japan 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 South Korea 3.1 4.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Philippines 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Indonesia 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 China 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Bangladesh 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Malaysia 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Thailand 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Vietnam 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Pakistan 1.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other Asia & Oceania 8.8 7.7 7.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6 Other foreign 4 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2

United States 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4

Total trade 114.9 124.3 119.8 121.6 124.2 126.7 129.1 131.9 134.4 136.6 139.1 141.6

Exporters European Union 2 12.2 19.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 Canada 16.1 18.5 17.8 17.1 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 Australia 7.5 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 Argentina 10.5 5.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 Russia 12.2 14.0 13.0 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 Ukraine 1.2 9.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 Other Former Soviet Union 5 8.4 5.6 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 Other Europe 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 India 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Turkey 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Other foreign 7.4 8.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7

United States 34.4 27.2 27.2 27.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3
Percent U.S. trade share 29.9 21.9 22.7 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.1 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.7 1/ Includes Republic of South Africa. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 4/ Includes unaccounted which can be negative. 5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 94 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 36. Soybean trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers European Union 1 15.1 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.0 Japan 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 South Korea 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Mexico 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Former Soviet Union 2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other Europe 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 China 37.8 36.0 37.3 40.1 42.8 45.2 47.6 49.9 52.3 54.7 57.0 59.4 Malaysia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Indonesia 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 Other 12.8 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.0
Total imports 79.4 77.9 79.4 82.5 85.8 88.7 91.6 94.5 97.3 100.2 103.1 106.0

Exporters Argentina 13.8 15.2 13.9 15.6 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.3 16.3 Brazil 25.4 25.7 24.1 24.4 26.5 29.3 31.9 34.6 36.9 39.5 41.6 43.7 Other South America 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 China 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Other foreign 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

United States 31.6 27.8 32.0 32.7 32.7 32.1 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.4 32.7
Total exports 79.4 77.9 79.4 82.5 85.8 88.7 91.6 94.5 97.3 100.2 103.1 106.0 Percent U.S. trade share 39.8 35.6 40.3 39.6 38.1 36.2 35.1 33.9 32.9 32.0 31.4 30.8 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 95 Table 37. Soybean meal trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers European Union 1 23.9 22.8 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4 Former Soviet Union 2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Other Europe 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Canada 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Japan 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Southeast Asia 9.1 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 Latin America 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 North Africa & Middle East 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 Other 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4
Total imports 55.2 55.4 58.8 60.7 62.6 64.6 66.5 68.4 70.2 72.1 74.0 75.9

Exporters Argentina 26.4 27.7 30.5 31.4 32.5 33.8 35.0 36.4 37.8 39.0 40.4 41.9 Brazil 12.1 12.5 12.6 13.6 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 18.9 Other South America 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 China 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 India 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 European Union 1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other foreign 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

United States 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
Total exports 55.3 56.1 58.8 60.7 62.6 64.6 66.5 68.4 70.2 72.1 74.0 75.9 Percent U.S. trade share 15.1 13.9 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.5 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 38. Soybean oil trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers China 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 India 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 Other Asia 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 Latin America 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 North Africa & Middle East 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 European Union 1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Former Soviet Union & Other Europe 2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Total imports 10.7 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1

Exporters Argentina 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 Brazil 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 European Union 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Other foreign 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

United States 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
Total exports 10.8 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 Percent U.S. trade share 12.5 10.1 7.9 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.7 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Includes intra-FSU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 96 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 39. Rice trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers Canada 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 Mexico 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75 Central America/Caribbean 1.38 1.53 1.65 1.66 1.74 1.81 1.90 1.96 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.13 Brazil 0.50 0.60 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.70 0.63 0.56 Other South America 0.45 0.53 0.60 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 European Union 1 1.10 1.20 1.17 1.21 1.25 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.42 1.45 Former Soviet Union 2 0.39 0.40 0.46 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.28 Other Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 Bangladesh 1.80 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 China 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.27 0.35 0.41 0.46 0.53 0.61 Japan 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 South Korea 0.25 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 Indonesia 0.50 0.80 0.79 0.92 1.27 1.67 1.77 1.90 2.01 2.20 2.39 2.56 Malaysia 0.80 0.88 0.94 0.94 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.22 Philippines 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.80 2.75 2.82 2.89 3.03 3.07 3.14 3.24 3.33 Other Asia & Oceania 2.33 2.32 2.28 2.32 2.31 2.36 2.40 2.42 2.45 2.47 2.50 2.54 Iraq 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 Iran 0.90 0.90 1.24 0.93 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 Saudi Arabia 0.96 1.02 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.53 Other N. Africa & M. East 1.82 1.69 1.79 1.78 1.83 1.88 1.92 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.08 2.13 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 6.38 6.20 6.53 6.99 7.27 7.47 7.70 7.90 8.10 8.30 8.50 8.70 Republic of South Africa 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 Other foreign 4 3.54 2.78 2.53 2.64 2.34 1.82 1.84 1.80 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.90

United States 0.76 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.90 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.10 1.14
Total imports 30.34 29.56 30.79 31.60 32.36 33.09 33.94 34.85 35.75 36.56 37.38 38.18

Exporters Australia 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Argentina 0.52 0.55 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.72 0.75 Other South America 1.67 1.52 1.44 1.48 1.43 1.44 1.47 1.53 1.61 1.65 1.70 1.76 European Union 1 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 China 1.00 1.30 1.69 1.89 2.07 2.30 2.51 2.59 2.65 2.72 2.76 2.79 India 4.10 2.50 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.45 3.65 Pakistan 3.00 4.00 3.48 3.53 3.52 3.51 3.50 3.50 3.55 3.65 3.70 3.80 Thailand 10.00 9.50 9.86 10.10 10.40 10.60 10.90 11.40 11.75 12.00 12.26 12.50 Vietnam 4.75 5.20 5.10 5.15 5.20 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.60 Egypt 0.45 0.80 0.75 0.78 0.90 0.95 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.12 1.15 Other foreign 1.26 0.89 1.49 1.56 1.61 1.64 1.67 1.69 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.79

United States 3.42 3.13 3.33 3.45 3.58 3.74 3.87 3.97 4.06 4.14 4.22 4.22
Total exports 30.34 29.56 30.79 31.60 32.36 33.09 33.94 34.85 35.75 36.56 37.38 38.18
Percent U.S. trade share 11.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Excludes Republic of South Africa 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 97 Table 40. All cotton trade long-term projections 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers European Union 1 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Former Soviet Union 2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Indonesia 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 Thailand 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 India 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Brazil 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Other Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Asia & Oceania 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 Pakistan 3.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Japan 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 South Korea 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 China 11.5 10.5 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 Taiwan 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Turkey 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 Mexico 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Other 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Total imports 38.0 35.2 37.2 38.1 38.7 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.7

Exporters Former Soviet Union 2 6.6 5.9 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 Australia 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 Argentina 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 India 7.4 5.9 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.6 Egypt 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Brazil 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.9 Other Latin America 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 Other foreign 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

United States 13.7 13.0 11.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7
Total exports 38.7 35.2 37.2 38.1 38.7 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.7 Percent U.S. trade share 35.3 36.9 29.9 28.4 29.3 30.7 31.4 32.1 32.8 33.0 33.3 33.7 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Includes Republic of South Africa. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, million bales

Exports, million bales

### 98 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 Table 41. Beef trade long-term projections 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers Japan 686 675 690 699 694 700 706 711 701 698 689 693 South Korea 308 320 340 344 348 357 362 368 373 377 381 385 Taiwan 102 100 95 106 107 107 108 107 108 108 109 110 Philippines 153 175 165 175 187 202 217 233 248 261 275 289 European Union 1 641 400 420 432 415 407 400 393 391 387 384 378 Russia 1,030 1,010 1,030 925 890 833 861 873 909 950 991 1,031 Other Europe 88 103 95 111 109 107 102 99 101 103 104 106 Egypt 293 225 240 257 271 276 278 280 281 283 287 290 Mexico 403 440 435 468 492 532 553 565 574 582 587 588 Canada 242 260 265 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272

United States 1,384 1,131 1,213 1,604 1,632 1,657 1,669 1,694 1,718 1,742 1,765 1,776
Major importers 5,330 4,839 4,988 5,393 5,417 5,450 5,528 5,595 5,676 5,763 5,843 5,919

Exporters Australia 1,400 1,386 1,350 1,320 1,314 1,307 1,314 1,319 1,328 1,338 1,351 1,365 New Zealand 496 515 497 492 486 488 491 494 497 500 503 506 Other Asia 938 1,032 974 968 986 1,007 1,037 1,070 1,101 1,131 1,160 1,182 European Union 1 140 100 100 103 108 109 110 108 107 110 112 114 Argentina 534 400 480 444 397 369 354 344 338 333 327 323 Brazil 2,189 1,925 2,015 2,098 2,171 2,225 2,272 2,310 2,345 2,377 2,406 2,435 Canada 457 465 470 486 478 484 493 503 518 534 548 560

United States 650 851 934 868 912 958 1,012 1,059 1,107 1,157 1,212 1,268
Major exporters 6,804 6,674 6,820 6,777 6,852 6,947 7,081 7,207 7,340 7,481 7,619 7,753 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Table 42. Pork trade long-term projections 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers Japan 1,210 1,248 1,242 1,243 1,239 1,231 1,227 1,226 1,227 1,232 1,233 1,228 China 198 480 360 185 200 215 230 238 245 254 266 277 Hong Kong 302 367 385 400 412 422 434 446 455 464 473 481 South Korea 447 460 455 466 479 497 509 528 539 553 565 575 Russia 894 940 960 992 1,005 1,013 1,012 1,006 988 970 959 947 Mexico 451 540 535 558 571 596 616 636 655 676 701 726 Canada 171 215 225 230 234 237 239 240 241 242 243 243

United States 439 378 386 431 454 465 477 488 499 511 522 533
Major importers 4,112 4,628 4,548 4,504 4,593 4,676 4,744 4,807 4,849 4,902 4,961 5,012

Exporters Brazil 730 675 705 702 708 717 729 746 757 773 787 798 Canada 1,033 1,075 1,080 1,029 1,015 1,017 1,022 1,019 1,016 1,016 1,020 1,025 Mexico 80 85 90 93 96 99 103 106 110 113 117 121 European Union 1 1,285 1,525 1,515 1,539 1,584 1,629 1,659 1,701 1,725 1,768 1,814 1,852 China 350 198 170 183 225 247 265 275 285 295 305 315

United States 1,426 2,300 2,043 2,083 2,125 2,167 2,211 2,255 2,300 2,332 2,364 2,396
Major exporters 4,904 5,858 5,603 5,628 5,754 5,876 5,990 6,102 6,194 6,298 6,407 6,506 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 99 Table 43. Poultry trade long-term projections 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers Russia 1,297 1,315 1,270 1,208 1,185 1,153 1,108 1,057 1,020 981 932 876 European Union 2 743 785 800 804 808 812 816 820 824 828 833 837 Other Europe 37 37 37 31 29 25 22 18 13 9 8 8 Canada 135 142 148 149 151 153 155 156 158 160 162 164 Mexico 595 632 661 638 660 674 685 701 728 752 777 799 Central America/Caribbean 205 280 300 316 308 304 297 309 330 352 359 365 Japan 696 680 680 679 675 677 672 669 667 666 665 662 Hong Kong 215 240 250 251 253 255 258 260 262 265 267 270 China 512 500 510 528 538 544 553 565 578 590 604 619 South Korea 60 70 70 72 79 84 90 96 101 108 116 124 Saudi Arabia 470 490 500 502 489 497 513 528 541 557 572 586 Other N. Africa & M. East 850 1,336 1,347 1,336 1,403 1,448 1,531 1,615 1,703 1,796 1,896 2,006
Major importers 5,815 6,507 6,573 6,513 6,576 6,625 6,698 6,794 6,927 7,062 7,190 7,314

Exporters European Union 2 749 745 730 625 621 605 589 575 586 598 614 635 Brazil 3,099 3,540 3,895 3,880 3,915 3,938 3,998 4,070 4,154 4,241 4,331 4,414 China 358 275 283 293 306 321 332 343 354 366 375 383 Thailand 296 350 360 336 330 345 360 381 395 406 417 430
United States 2,926 3,312 3,134 2,901 2,967 3,008 3,057 3,101 3,150 3,201 3,239 3,276
Major exporters 7,428 8,222 8,402 8,037 8,139 8,217 8,336 8,470 8,639 8,811 8,976 9,136 1/ Broilers and turkeys only. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections were completed in November 2008. Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

### 100 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 List of Tables Page Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions........................................................................................ ... 15 Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions .................................................................................... . 16 Table 3. Population growth assumptions......................................................................................... ...... 17 Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018.................................................. 30 Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions ............................................................. 30 Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections .......................... 31 Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variab les for major field crops, long-term projections .......... 32 Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections ....................................................................................... ....... 33 Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections .................................................................................... ... 34 Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections .................................................................................... ....... 35 Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections...................................................................................... ......... 36 Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections..................................................................................... ....... 37 Table 13. U.S. soybean and prod ucts long-term projections................................................................... 38 Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis ......................................................................... .. 39 Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections............................................................................. ... 40 Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections..................................................................................... ........ 41 Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years.............................. 42 Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term e xport and import projections, fiscal years.............................. 43 Table 19. Per capita meat c onsumption, retail weight........................................................................... .. 49 Table 20. Consumer expenditures for meats ...................................................................................... ..... 49 Table 21. Beef long-term projections........................................................................................... ........... 50 Table 22. Pork long-term projections........................................................................................... ........... 51 Table 23. Young chicken long-term projections .................................................................................. ... 51 Table 24. Turkey long-term projections......................................................................................... ......... 52 Table 25. Egg long-term projections ............................................................................................ ........... 52 Table 26. Dairy long-term projections .......................................................................................... .......... 53 Table 27. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections.................................................. 60 Table 28. Summary of U.S. agricultural tr ade long-term projections, fiscal years ................................. 61 Table 29. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections ..................... 62 Table 30. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections ......................... 63 Table 31. Coarse grains trade long-term projections............................................................................ ... 90 Table 32. Corn trade long-term projections..................................................................................... ........ 91 Table 33. Sorghum trade long-term projections.................................................................................. .... 92 Table 34. Barley trade long-term projections................................................................................... ....... 92 Table 35. Wheat trade long-term projections .................................................................................... ...... 93 Table 36. Soybean trade long-term projections.................................................................................. ..... 94 Table 37. Soybean meal trade long-term projections............................................................................. . 95 Table 38. Soybean oil trade long-term projections.............................................................................. .... 95 Table 39. Rice trade long-term projections ..................................................................................... ........ 96 Table 40. All cotton trade long-term projections ............................................................................... ..... 97 Table 41. Beef trade long-term projections..................................................................................... ........ 98 Table 42. Pork trade long-term projections..................................................................................... ........ 98 Table 43. Poultry trade long-term projections.................................................................................. ....... 99