San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2008

Table of Contents 

2008 PM2.5 Plan 

i 

Table of Contents 

Executive Summary 

Progress from ozone and PM10 Attainment Plans....................................ES-1

Expeditious Attainment ..............................................................................ES-2 

What will this plan do? ...............................................................................ES-2 

Table of Contents 

Acronyms and Glossary 

Chapter 1: Progress and Current Air Quality 

1.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 1-1 

1.2 What is PM2.5? ............................................................................... 1-1 

1.3 Adopted Rules ................................................................................. 1-2 

1.4 Emissions and Current Air Quality................................................... 1-4 

1.4.1 Emissions .......................................................................... 1-4 

1.4.2 Air Monitoring Data and Analysis....................................... 1-5 

Chapter 2: Meeting Federal Requirements 

2.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 2-1 

2.2 Health Effects .................................................................................. 2-1 

2.2.1 Other Effects of PM2.5....................................................... 2-3 

2.3 Health-Based Standards.................................................................. 2-3 

2.3.1 State Standards ................................................................. 2-4 

2.3.2 Federal Standards ............................................................. 2-4 

2.4 Designations and Requirements...................................................... 2-6 

Chapter 3: What is Needed to Demonstrate Attainment?

3.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2 Challenges....................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2.1 Natural Conditions ............................................................. 3-2 

3.2.2 Meteorology ....................................................................... 3-3 

3.2.3 Horizontal Mixing (Transport)............................................. 3-4 

3.2.4 Vertical Mixing and Inversion Layers ................................. 3-5 

3.2.5 Fog Effects on PM2.5 ........................................................ 3-6 

3.2.6 Urban and Rural Comparison and Atmospheric 

Chemistry for PM2.5............................................................... 3-7 

3.2.7 Other Key Findings from Scientific Studies and 

SJV Evaluations .................................................................... 3-9 

3.2.7.1 Ammonium Nitrate Sensitivity to Sulfate Levels ........ 3-9 

3.2.7.2 Precursor Relationships and Control Sensitivity...... 3-10 

3.2.8 Population Growth ........................................................... 3-11 

3.2.9 Jurisdictional Limits and Regulatory Authority ................. 3-12 

3.3 Modeling......................................................................................... 3-14 
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3.3.1 Model Choice................................................................... 3-14 

3.3.2 Model Application............................................................. 3-16 

3.3.2.1 PM2.5 Speciation for Annual Rollback Modeling..... 3-16 

3.3.2.2 PM2.5 Methodology Revisions for Annual 

Receptor Modeling............................................................ 3-18 

3.3.3 Weight of Evidence.......................................................... 3-19 

3.3.4 Speciated Modeled Attainment Test ................................ 3-20 

3.4 Modeling Results ........................................................................... 3-22 

3.4.1 Discussion of Results....................................................... 3-23 

3.4.2 Weight of Evidence.......................................................... 3-27 

3.4.3 Demonstration of Attainment ........................................... 3-32 

3.5 PM2.5 Considerations in the Ozone Plan...................................... 3-33 

3.6 PM2.5 Effect on the Ozone Plan ................................................... 3-33 

Chapter 4: Strategic Concepts 

4.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 4-1 

4.2 Overall Approach............................................................................. 4-1 

 4.2.1 Integration of Ozone and PM2.5 Strategies ....................... 4-1 

4.3 Four-Faceted Control Strategy ........................................................ 4-2 

4.4 Local, State, and Federal Components ........................................... 4-3 

4.5 Support from Other District Programs ............................................. 4-3 

 4.5.1 Compliance/Enforcement................................................... 4-3 

 4.5.2 Public Education, Awareness, and Information.................. 4-5 

 4.5.2.1 Programs................................................................... 4-5 

 4.5.2.2 Events ....................................................................... 4-9 

 4.5.2.3 Materials.................................................................. 4-10 

 4.5.3 Environmental Review ...................................................... 4-11 

 4.5.4 Sustainable Incentives...................................................... 4-12 

Chapter 5: Public Accountability 

Chapter 6: District Strategy 

6.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 6-1 

6.2 Regulatory component: RACT/RACM ............................................ 6-1 

6.3 Stationary Source Control Measures .............................................. 6-6 

 6.3.1 Process for Identifying and Evaluating Potential 

Control Measures ........................................................................ 6-6 

6.4 Implementation schedule for Stationary Source 

Control Measures ........................................................................ 6-8 

6.5 District Incentive Programs............................................................. 6-13 

 6.5.1 Types of Incentive Programs ............................................ 6-14 

 6.5.2 Existing Incentive Funding Sources in the San 

Joaquin Valley ........................................................................... 6-16 

6.6 District Innovative Strategies and Programs.................................. 6-20 

 6.6.1 Fast Track........................................................................ 6-20 

 6.6.2 Healthy Air Living............................................................. 6-23 
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2008 PM2.5 Plan 

iii 

Chapter 7: Local, State, and Federal Controls 

7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 7-1 

7.2 Local Component: Measures to Reduce Emissions by 

Improving Vehicle Use................................................................. 7-1 

 7.2.1 Legislative Requirements................................................... 7-1 

 7.2.2 Conformity Budgets ............................................................ 7-3 

7.3 Summary of the State Strategy Adopted by the Air 

Resources Board ....................................................................... 7-11 

Chapter 8: Reasonable Further Progress 

8.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 8-1 

8.2 Reasonable further Progress Requirements.................................... 8-1 

8.3 Reasonable further Progress Calculations ...................................... 8-2 

Chapter 9: Conclusion 

9.1 Attainment Outlook .......................................................................... 9-1 

 9.1.1 Attainment before 2014...................................................... 9-3 

9.2 Contingency Measures.................................................................... 9-5 

 9.2.1 Introduction ......................................................................... 9-5 

 9.2.2 Contingency Measures ....................................................... 9-7 

Acknowledgements 

Appendices 

Appendix A: Ambient Air Quality Data and Analysis 

A.1 Introduction .....................................................................................A-1 

A.2 Overview of Results: 2004-2006 Annual and 24-hour 

PM2.5 Averages ..........................................................................A-1 

A.3 PM2.5 Annual and 24-hour Attainment Status Calculations............A-2 

 A.3.1 Rounding Conventions ......................................................A-3 

 A.3.2 Data Completeness...........................................................A-3 

 A.3.3 Varying Sampling Schedules.............................................A-5 

 A.3.4 Data Validity Flags.............................................................A-9 

A.4 Data Analysis, 1999-2006 ...............................................................A-9 

A.5 Trend and Spatial Variations.........................................................A-10 

 A.5.1 Local Trends....................................................................A-10 

A.6 Results using Preliminary 2007 Real-time 24-Hour PM2.5 Data...A-27 

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory 

B.1 Introduction .....................................................................................B-1 

B.2 Emissions Inventory Tables ............................................................B-3 

B.3 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions ..........................B-27 
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iv 

 B.3.1 Emission Factors and Emission Equations......................B-27 

 B.3.2 Emissions Inventory Updates ..........................................B-28 

Appendix C: Conformity Budgets Documentation 

Appendix D: Emission Reduction Credits 

D.1 Introduction .....................................................................................D-1 

D.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Credits.......................................D-1 

Appendix E: District Additions to the Conceptual Model 

Appendix F: SJV PM2.5 SIP Modeling Protocol 

Appendix G: Regional Air Quality Modeling 

Appendix H: Weight of Evidence 

Appendix I: Candidate Control Measures 

Appendix J: Comments and Responses

J.1 Written Comments on the Proposed 2008 PM2.5 Plan ....................J-1 

J.2 Re-evaluation of Comments and Research Submitted by the 

California Cotton Ginners and Growers Associations, 

January 7, 2008 ..........................................................................J-20 

J.3 Verbal Comments, February 25-26, 2008 Public Workshops 

on the 2nd Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan...............................................J-21 

 J.3.1 February 25, 2:00pm Workshop........................................J-21 

 J.3.2 February 26, 6:30pm Workshop........................................J-26 

J.4 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop 

on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan.....................................................J-28 

J.5 Verbal Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshops 

on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan.....................................................J-42 

 J.5.1 December 18, 2007, 6:30 pm Workshop...........................J-42 

 J.5.2 December 19, 2007, 2:00 pm workshop ...........................J-45 

J.6 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop 

on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan.....................................................J-48 
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2008 PM2.5 Plan 

v 

List of Figures 

Figure ES-1 Percent of Valley’s Population Living in Areas that Attain the 1997 

PM2.5 Standard....................................................................................ES-2 

Figure ES-2 Annual Average NOx Emissions and NOx Attainment Target....ES-3 

Figure ES-3 Mobile Source Contribution to NOx Emissions...........................ES-4 

Figure 1-1 PM2.5 Formation ............................................................................ 1-1 

Figure 1-2 Diameter Comparison: Human Hair, Sand, PM10, and PM2.5 ....... 1-3 

Figure 1-3 PM2.5 and Precursor Emissions Reductions, 1990-2005............... 1-5 

Figure 1-4 Atmospheric Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley.......... 1-6 

Figure 1-5 PM2.5 Design Values and Attainment Test..................................... 1-7 

Figure 1-6 24-hour Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and 2006 ....... 1-9 

Figure 1-7 Annual Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and 2006 ...... 1-10 

Figure 2-1 AQI Values and Corresponding Air Quality, Colors, and Health 

Advisories............................................................................................... 2-3 

Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley Topography ..................................................... 3-1 

Figure 3-2 Vertical Dispersion, With and Without Temperature Inversion........ 3-6 

Figure 3-3 NOx Precursor by Source Type .................................................... 3-13 

Figure 3-4 Example annual PM2.5 source contributions, Kern 2014, 

including reductions.............................................................................. 3-26 

Figure 9-1 Percent Contribution to Annual PM2.5 Concentrations................... 9-2 

Figure 9-2 Annual PM2.5 Principal Components and Reductions.................... 9-4 

Figure A-1 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average 

PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-

2006 average) ......................................................................................A-14 

Figure A-2 Bakersfield - California 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour 

average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 

(2004-2006 average) ............................................................................A-14 

Figure A-3 Bakersfield - Golden 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average 

PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-

2006 average) ......................................................................................A-15 

Figure A-4 Visalia 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 

average) ...............................................................................................A-15 

Figure A-5 Corcoran 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 

average) ...............................................................................................A-16 

Figure A-6 Fresno-Winery 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average 

PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-

2006 average) ......................................................................................A-16 
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Figure A-7 Fresno-1st 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 

average) ...............................................................................................A-17 

Figure A-8 Clovis 3-year average 98th Percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations ......................................................................................A-17 

Figure A-9 Merced - M Street 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average 

PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2006.............................................A-18 

Figure A-10 Modesto 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations from 1999 to 2006 ........................................................A-18 

Figure A-11 Stockton 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 

concentrations from 1999 to 2006 ........................................................A-19 

Figure A-12 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-19 

Figure A-13 Bakersfield - California 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value 

from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................A-20 

Figure A-14 Bakersfield - Golden 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-20 

Figure A-15 Visalia 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-21 

Figure A-16 Corcoran 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-21 

Figure A-17 Fresno-Winery 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value 

from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................A-22 

Figure A-18 Fresno-1st 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-22 

Figure A-19 Clovis 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 

1999 to 2006.........................................................................................A-23 

Figure A-20 Merced M Street 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value 

from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................A-23 

Figure A-21 Modesto - 14th 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value 

 from 1999 to 2006 ...............................................................................A-24 

Figure A-22 Stockton - Hazelton 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value 

from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................A-24 

Figure A-23 PM2.5 24-hour Design Value Comparison, 2002 and 2006 ........A-25 

Figure A-24 PM2.5 Annual Mean Design Value Comparison, 2002 

and 2006 ..............................................................................................A-26 
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List of Tables 

Table 2-1 Federal and State Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 ........... 2-5 

Table 2-2 Federal Requirements for PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas................... 2-8 

Table 3-1 SJVAB Population by County......................................................... 3-12 

Table 3-2 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Receptor Speciated Modeled 

Attainment Test .................................................................................... 3-22 

Table 3-3 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Regional Speciated Modeled 

Attainment Test .................................................................................... 3-23 

Table 3-4 Regional Model Evaluation............................................................. 3-25 

Table 3-5 Regional and Receptor Model Comparison.................................... 3-30 

Table 6-1 EPA’s List of Suggested PM2.5 Control Measures .......................... 6-4 

Table 6-2 Stationary Source Regulatory Implementation Schedule ................ 6-9 

Table 6-3a NOx Emissions Reductions........................................................... 6-11 

Table 6-3b PM2.5 Emissions Reductions....................................................... 6-12 

Table 6-3c SO2 Emissions Reductions........................................................... 6-12 

Table 6-4 Feasibility Study Implementation Schedule ................................... 6-13 

Table 6-5 Existing Funding Sources............................................................... 6-17 

Table 6-6 NOx Reductions Achieved by District Incentive Measures with 

Assured Funding ........................................................................... 6-17 

Table 6-7 Estimated New Funding Sources ................................................... 6-19 

Table 7-1 Example County Emission Budget Calculation ................................ 7-7 

Table 7-2 Transportation Conformity Budgets.................................................. 7-8 

Table 7-3 Expected Emission Reductions from 2007 SIP State Strategy ...... 7-12 

Table 8-1 Emissions Inventory Adjusted for Plan Control Strategy .................. 8-2 

Table 8-2 Determining Benchmark Milestones as tpd of Reductions ............... 8-2 

Table 8-3 Comparison of 2009 and 2012 RFP Benchmarks 

and Projected Levels....................................................................... 8-3 

Table 8-4 Fraction of Reductions Achieved in Each Milestone Year................ 8-3 

Table 9-1 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Attainment Outlook................................ 9-3 

Table A-1 SJV PM2.5 98th Percentile Value, 2004-2006, (μg/m3) ...................A-1 

Table A-2 SJV PM2.5 Annual Mean Values, 2004-2006..................................A-2 

Table A-3 Data Completeness by Quarter, 2004 – 2006, as Percentages.......A-4 

Table A-4 Data Substitution for 98th Percentile Calculations, 2004-2006........A-4 

Table A-5 Sampling schedules for SJV air monitoring sites, 2004-2006..........A-5 

Table A-6 Calculating Weighted Percentiles for Two Seasons, .......................A-7 

Table A-7 Quarterly Averages, 2006 Bakersfield - Planz PM2.5 Values..........A-8 
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Table A-8 24-hour PM2.5 98th percentile values (μg/m3), 1999-2006...........A-11 

Table A-9 3-year average of the 24-hour PM2.5 98th percentile values ........A-11 

Table A-10 Annual mean PM2.5 value concentrations (μg/m3) .....................A-12 

Table A-11 3-year average of the annual mean PM2.5 values (μg/m3) .........A-12 

Table A-12 Current (2004 – 2006) PM2.5 air quality design values and 

attainment status for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin ........................A-13 

Table A-13 24 - hour PM2.5 98th percentile values (μg / m3)........................A-27 

Table A-14 Complete Air Quality Data, 2004-2006 ........................................A-28 

Table B-1 Directly Emitted PM2.5, Annual and Winter Daily Averages............B-3 

Table B-2 NOx, Annual and Winter Daily Averages .........................................B-7 

Table B-3 SO2, Annual and Winter Daily Averages.........................................B-12 

Table B-4 VOC, Annual and Winter Daily Averages .......................................B-17 

Table B-5 Ammonia, Annual and Winter Daily Averages ...............................B-21 

Table D-1 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use............D-5 

Table D-2 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ...........D-8 

Table D-3 Estimated PM2.5 Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use.......D-11 

Table D-4 Estimated SO2 Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ..........D-14 

Table D-5 List of Emission Reduction Credits PM10 

and PM2.5 Precursors...................................................................D-18