United States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Office of the 

Chief Economist 

World Agricultural 

Outlook Board 

Long-term 

Projections Report 

OCE-2009-1 

February 2009 

USDA Agricultural 

Projections to 2018 

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee 

World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair 

Economic Research Service 

Farm Service Agency 

Foreign Agricultural Service 

Agricultural Marketing Service 

Office of the Chief Economist 

Office of Budget and Program Analysis 

Risk Management Agency 

Natural Resources Conservation Service 

Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension 

Service

USDA Long-term Projections
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Ask for USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018 (OCE-2009-1). 
Washington, D.C. 20250-3812 

USDA Long-term Projections

February 2009

i

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural 

Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural 

Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2009-1, 100 pp. 

Abstract 

This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2018. Projections cover 

agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm 

income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding 

macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The report 

assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather, further outbreaks of plant or animal 

diseases, or other factors affecting global supply and demand. Provisions of current law, 

including the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), are assumed to 

remain in effect through the projections period. The projections are one representative scenario 

for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report provides a point of departure 

for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. 

The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2008, reflecting a 

composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. 

Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect adjustments to the global economic 

slowdown and the U.S. recession. Additionally, over the next several years, the livestock sector 

continues to adjust to higher feed prices seen in 2007 and 2008. Longrun developments for 

global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the 

European Union (EU). Although increases in corn-based ethanol production in the United States 

are projected to slow, ethanol demand remains high and affects production, use, and prices of 

farm commodities throughout the sector. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for 

vegetable oils in global markets. Further, once the world economies recover from the current 

slowdown, steady economic gains support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. As a 

result, although net farm income initially declines from the highs of 2007 and 2008, it remains 

historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels in the latter part of the projections. U.S. 

retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2011 (particularly meats in 2010 

and 2011), but then food prices return to the longer term relationship of rising less than the 

general inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period. 

Keywords: Projections, crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, trade, farm income, food prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on 

the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, 

familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, 

or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not 

all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for 

communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's 

TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). 

To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence 

Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). 

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 
ii USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Contents 

Page

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections ........................................................................ iii 

Long-term Projections on the Internet ........................................................................................... iv 

Contacts for Long-term Projections............................................................................................... iv 

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iv 

Introduction......................................................................................................................................1 

Overview of Assumptions and Implications....................................................................................2 

Macroeconomic Assumptions..........................................................................................................8 

Crops..............................................................................................................................................18 

Livestock........................................................................................................................................44 

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators: 

Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Expenditures .........................................54 

Agricultural Trade..........................................................................................................................64 

List of Tables ...............................................................................................................................100 

Features in this Report

Page 

2008 Farm Act Overview ........................................................................................................... 6

Global Economic Slowdown...................................................................................................... 9

Corn-based Ethanol Expansion Projected To Slow.................................................................. 20

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks ................................................................................... 66 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 iii

A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections 

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a Departmental consensus 

on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for 

discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector. 

The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a 

conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of 

current farm legislation and specific assumptions about external conditions. 

The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2008 World 

Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Critical long term assumptions are made for 

U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade 

policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The 

macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. Normal weather is assumed. 

Also, the report assumes no further outbreaks of animal or plant diseases. Changes in 

assumptions for any of these items can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions 

that emerge will alter the outcomes. 

The projections analysis was conducted by interagency committees in USDA and reflects a 

composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service has 

the lead role in preparing the Departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed 

and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World 

Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include 

the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service 

Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the 

Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; 

the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the Cooperative State Research, Education, and 

Extension Service. 
iv USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Long-term Projections on the Internet

The Economic Research Service of USDA has a briefing room for long-term projections at: 

http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/projections/ 

Also, data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at: 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192 

Contacts for Long-term Projections 

Questions regarding these projections may be directed to: 

Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: westcott@ers.usda.gov 

Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5190, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: rtrostle@ers.usda.gov 

C. Edwin Young, Economic Research Service, Room 5191, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, 

D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5336, e-mail: ceyoung@ers.usda.gov 

David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., 

Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: dstallings@oce.usda.gov 

Acknowledgments 

The report coordinators, on behalf of the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank 

the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributions to the long-term 

projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 1

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018 

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

Introduction 

This report provides longrun projections for the agricultural sector through 2018. Major forces and 

uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term 

global economic growth and population trends. Projections cover production and consumption for 

agricultural commodities, global agricultural trade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and 

aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. 

The projections are a conditional scenario with no shocks and are based on specific assumptions 

regarding the macroeconomy, agricultural and trade policies, the weather, and international 

developments. The report assumes that provisions of current law remain in effect through the 

projection period. This would include the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 

Farm Act), the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Energy Improvement and 

Extension Act of 2008, for example. The projections are not intended to be a Departmental 

forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a description of what would be expected to 

happen under a continuation of current farm legislation, with very specific external circumstances. 

Thus, the projections provide a neutral backdrop, reference scenario that provides a point of 

departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different 

domestic or international assumptions. 

The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 2008 and reflect a 

composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Normal weather is assumed. Also, the 

projections assume no further outbreaks of plant or animal diseases. Short-term projections used 

as a starting point in this report are from the November 2008 World Agricultural Supply and 

Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. 
2 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Overview of Assumptions and Implications 

Key assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include: 

Economic Growth

 U.S. and world economic growth reflect near-term effects of the current economic crisis 

followed by a transition back to steady economic gains. 

 The global economy is assumed to slow to 1.7-percent growth in 2009 while the U.S. 

economy declines by 0.5 percent. 

 The financial crisis and global economic slowdown will constrain U.S. exports in the short 

to intermediate term. 

 Global economic growth is assumed to rebound to a 3.4-percent average growth rate for 

2010-18. The U.S. economy resumes growth in 2010 at 2.5 percent, followed by average 

rates near 3 percent over the remainder of the projection period. 

 The return to broad-based, steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in 

world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. 

 Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food 

consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, 

with movement away from staple foods and increased diversification of diets. 

 

 Growth in export demand contributes to increases in agricultural commodity prices and 

gains in farm cash receipts after 2009. 

Population 

 Growth in global population is assumed to continue to slow to an average of about 

1.1 percent per year over the projection period compared with average annual rates of 

1.7 percent in the 1980s and 1.4 percent in the 1990s. 

 Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the 

world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing 

countries increases to nearly 84 percent by 2018, up from 78 percent in the 1980s and 

80 percent in the 1990s. 

 Population gains in developing countries along with increased urbanization and expansion 

of the middle class are particularly important for the projected growth in global food 

demand. Population in developing countries, in contrast to that in more developed 

countries, is dominated by a younger population cohort with larger and increasingly more 

diverse food consumption. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 3

The Value of the U.S. Dollar 

 The U.S. dollar is assumed to strengthen moderately over 2010-18. Nonetheless, the 

dollar’s low level relative to the early 2000s remains a facilitating factor in projected gains 

in U.S. agricultural exports. 

 The United States will remain competitive in global agricultural markets, although trade 

competition will continue to be strong. Even with the moderate strengthening of the U.S. 

dollar, export gains contribute to increases in cash receipts for U.S. farmers. 

 

Oil Prices

 Much of the large increases in oil prices from late 2002 into 2008 reflected strong demand 

for crude oil resulting from world economic gains and rapid manufacturing growth in 

China, India, and other countries in Asia. The weakening of the U.S. and global economies 

at the end of 2008 and resulting decline in demand for petroleum and other energy supplies 

pushed crude oil prices down more than 70 percent from peak values in mid-2008. 

 Crude oil prices are assumed to rebound in 2009 and average about $60 per barrel. Prices 

are then assumed to increase over the remainder of the projection period as global 

economic activity picks up, rising somewhat faster than the general inflation rate. By the 

end of the projection period, the refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is assumed to 

be near $100 per barrel. 

 These increases in crude oil prices influence both the costs of production in the agricultural 

sector as well as the economics of biofuels. 

U.S. Agricultural Policy 

 Provisions of current law, particularly the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 

(2008 Farm Act), are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. (See box, 

2008 Farm Act Overview, pages 6-7, for further discussion.) 

 Under the 2008 Farm Act, the maximum acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve 

Program (CRP) was reduced from 39.2 million acres to 32 million acres, beginning on 

October 1, 2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acres on September 30, 2008, this 

policy change provides some additional cropland for potential use in production rather than 

tightening cropland availability over the projection period. 

 Increased cropland availability, resulting from the reduction in the CRP, combined with 

sustained high commodity prices keep U.S. cropland use high in the projections. 
4 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

U.S. Biofuels 

 The ethanol tax credit was reduced to 45 cents per gallon under the 2008 Farm Act, starting 

in calendar 2009. 

 

 The biodiesel tax credit was set at $1.00 per gallon for all feedstocks under the Energy 

Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, thus increasing the credit for biodiesel made 

from recycled vegetable oil or animal fats from 50 cents per gallon. 

 The projections assume that these tax credits available to blenders of biofuels (ethanol and 

biodiesel) as well as the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol used as fuel are 

extended beyond their currently legislated expiration dates and remain in effect through the 

projection period. 

 Expansion in the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to continue, although the pace is 

assumed to slow from the rapid gains of the past several years. 

 Corn is expected to remain the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production during the 

projection period. Slower annual growth for corn-based ethanol is projected, however, 

largely reflecting moderate gains assumed in overall gasoline consumption in the United 

States. Nonetheless, by the end of the projection period, ethanol production accounts for 

about 35 percent of corn use, and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of 

annual gasoline consumption. 

 Biodiesel production in the United States is assumed to increase to 1 billion gallons by 

2012. Less than half this volume is assumed to be from domestic first-use vegetable oils, 

partly due to the equalization of the biodiesel tax credit across all feedstocks. 

Livestock and Meat Trade 

 The projections assume a gradual rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea. 

Even with these gains, however, total U.S. beef exports do not return to 2003 levels until 

2013. 

 The projections assume Canadian cattle and beef from cattle over 30 months of age can be 

exported to the United States under the conditions that they are age-verifiable and born 

after March 1, 1999. 

 The projections assume implementation of mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) 

for beef and veal, pork, lamb, and poultry meat based on the interim final rule published in 

August 2008. These requirements add costs associated with the tracking of livestock and 

the labeling of meat. Since August 2008, a final rule has been published and is currently 

under review. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 5

International Policy 

 Trade projections assume that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral 

agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The report incorporates effects of 

trade agreements and domestic policies in place in November 2008. 

 Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to 

continue to evolve along their current path, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s 

regional and commodity analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in 

many developing countries are assumed to continue. 

International Biofuels 

 The production of biofuels has experienced rapid growth in a number of countries. The 

projections assume that the most significant increases in foreign biofuel production over 

the next decade will be in the European Union (EU), Brazil, Argentina, and Canada. 

 The projections assume that the EU biofuel target of 5.75 percent of total transportation 

fuel use by 2010 and mandate of 10 percent by 2020 are only partially met. Nonetheless, 

growth in biodiesel demand in the EU is a key factor underlying gains in global demand for 

vegetable oils and oilseeds. 

Prices 

 Long-term growth in global demand for agricultural products, in combination with the 

continued presence of U.S. ethanol demand in the corn sector and EU biodiesel demand for 

vegetable oils, holds prices for corn, oilseeds, and many other crops well above their 

historical levels, although season-average annual prices are not projected to reach the 

record highs seen in the first half of 2008. 

 Continued high grain and oilseed prices raise feed costs in the livestock sector, leading to 

reduced U.S. production of total meat and poultry production through 2011 and higher 

meat prices. 

 Sustained biofuel demand and strengthening global food demand after the current 

economic slowdown provide a major impetus for long-term projections of strong farm 

income. 

 Retail food prices rise faster than overall inflation through 2011, partly reflecting higher 

meat prices (particularly in 2010 and 2011) as the livestock sector adjusts to increased feed 

costs. Then consumer food prices in the United States return to the longer term relationship 

of rising less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projection period. 
6 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

2008 Farm Act Overview 

The Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008, enacted into law in June 2008, governs the bulk of 

Federal agriculture and related programs for the next 5 years. Its 15 titles include administrative and 

funding authorities for programs that cover income and commodity price support, farm credit, and risk 

management; conservation though land retirement, stewardship of land and water resources, and 

farmland protection; food assistance and agricultural development efforts abroad and promotion of 

international access to American farm products; food stamps, domestic food distribution, and nutrition 

initiatives; rural community and economic development initiatives; and encouraging production and 

use of agricultural and rural renewable energy sources. 

The 2008 Farm Act continues many of the commodity programs from recent farm legislation. The Act 

provides income support, with new payment and eligibility limits, for wheat, feed grains, cotton, rice, 

oilseeds, and pulses through direct payments (except pulses), counter-cyclical payments, marketing 

loan assistance program, and new average crop revenue election (ACRE) payments. 

 Direct payment rates are unchanged, but eligible payment acres are reduced from 85 percent of 

base acres to 83.3 percent for crop years 2009-11. 

 Loan rates, specified in the legislation, are unchanged for crop year 2008, but increase for wheat, 

barley, oats, other oilseeds, and wool for crop years 2010-12. Loan rates for dry peas and lentils are 

lowered for crop years 2009-12. Large chickpeas become loan eligible in 2009. 

 The target price for upland cotton is lowered to 71.25 cents per pound. Target prices increase for 

wheat, grain sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans, and other oilseeds for crop years 2010-12. Target 

prices are specified for dry peas, lentils, and small chickpeas and large chickpeas beginning with 

the 2009 crop year, with these crops becoming eligible for counter-cyclical payments. 

 The ACRE program is a new market-based, counter-cyclical revenue program beginning in 2009 

which incorporates national prices and state- and farm-level yields. This optional program is an 

alternative to counter-cyclical payments with the election to receive ACRE payments also requiring 

a 20 percent reduction in direct payments and a 30 percent reduction in the loan rate. 

 Sugar loan rates are raised and a new program is added to use surplus sugar for bioenergy 

production. 

 Dairy price support is revised by specifying mandated purchase prices for manufactured dairy 

products and allowing purchase prices to decline if purchase levels exceed certain levels. 

 The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) Program continues, but is modified for the period 

October 1, 2008 through August 31, 2012. The payment rate percentage applied to the difference 

between the MILC target price and the Boston milk marketing order Class I price is raised in this 

period. The quantity of milk eligible for MILC payments for all producers on a single dairy 

operation is also higher during this period. Additionally, starting in January 2008, the MILC target 

price is adjusted when the National Average Dairy Feed Ration Cost exceeds designated levels 

($7.35 per hundredweight through August 2012; $9.50 per hundredweight in subsequent months). 

 The Act reduces subsidies to insurance companies for selling and servicing crop insurance policies 

and increases administrative fees paid by farmers for minimum insurance coverage level. 

 A new, whole-farm Supplemental Agricultural Disaster Assistance Program provides revenuebased disaster protection to crop producers and disaster assistance for livestock (including 

aquaculture and honey bees), forage, and tree and nursery crops. 

New titles provide for horticultural crops and organic agriculture and for the livestock and poultry 

sector. 

 The Specialty Crop Block Grant Program continues with increased mandatory funding. 

--Continued 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 7

2008 Farm Act Overview (Continued) 

 Livestock mandatory reporting expands and country-of-origin labeling continues, with some 

additional commodities added. 

 New rules governing hog and poultry production contracts and meat and poultry plant food safety 

are introduced. 

Conservation provisions emphasize and expand working land conservation and environmental 

practices, while continuing land retirement and farmland preservation programs. 

 Conservation on working land is emphasized by increasing funding for the Environmental Quality 

Incentives Program and the new Conservation Stewardship Program (successor to the Conservation 

Security Program). 

 The Conservation Reserve Program acreage cap is reduced to 32 million acres from 39.2 million 

acres, beginning on October 1, 2009. 

 Emphasis on wetland restoration and farmland preservation continues with expansion of Wetland 

Reserve Program, Farmland Protection Program, and Grassland Reserve Program. 

The Trade title repeals several export assistance programs, while continuing and expanding market 

development programs. 

 The Intermediate Export Guarantee Program (GSM-103), Supplier Credit Guarantee Program, and 

Export Enhancement Program are repealed. 

 Required spending on nonemergency food assistance is increased. 

 Mandatory funding for McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition 

Program is provided. 

Support for nutrition programs expands. 

 Benefits and eligibility increase for the Food Stamp Program (FSP), renamed the Supplemental 

Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), beginning in 2009. Additional adjustments for inflation are 

provided. 

 The Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program and farmers’ market and food distribution programs also 

receive increased funding. 

Rural development programs funds planning, coordination, and implementation of rural community 

and economic development programs. 

 Programs continue to emphasize business and economic development and enhanced infrastructure, 

especially for health care and communications systems. 

 Value-added agricultural activities, including renewable energy and locally and regionally 

produced agricultural products also receive greater attention. 

The 2008 Farm Act also includes a number of tax provisions, including several related to biofuels. 

 A temporary production tax credit for cellulosic biofuels is provided. 

 The tax credit for ethanol blending is reduced to 45 cents per gallon from 51 cents per gallon. This 

reduction took place at the start of 2009 since the ethanol production trigger was met in 2008. 

For further information on the 2008 Farm Act, see 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side at 

http://www.ers.usda.gov/FarmBill/2008/Overview.htm
8 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Macroeconomic Assumptions 

Macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect a near-term global 

economic slowdown due to the current financial crisis, followed by a transition back toward steady 

growth at longrun sustainable rates in 2011 and beyond. Implicit in these assumptions is the U.S. 

Federal Reserve Board and other major central banks around the world taking aggressive action to 

counter the financial crisis, and governments also being aggressive in providing stimulus to 

overcome the economic downturn to keep it short-lived (see box, Global Economic Slowdown, 

page 9). The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. 

After averaging 3 percent annually between 2001 and 2008, overall world economic growth is 

projected to increase only 1.7 percent in 2009. Global growth then is projected to average 3.4 percent 

in 2010 through 2018. The projections assume slowing rates of growth in developed countries and 

continued strong growth in developing countries and countries of the former Soviet Union. 

The financial crisis has a significant impact on economic growth in the United States. The U.S. 

economy grows 1.3 percent in 2008, contracts by 0.5 percent in 2009, and resumes growth of only 

2.5 percent in 2010. After 2010, U.S. growth moves back toward a sustainable rate near 3 percent. 

Nonetheless, the U.S. share of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls to 25 percent by the end 

of the projections from 27 percent in 2007. 

The return of global economic growth after 2009 and continued population gains are expected to 

boost food demand. The longer term increases in global purchasing power and population, 

competing against demand for biofuels and other domestic uses, are important factors shaping the 

projections for world trade, U.S. agricultural exports, and for commodity prices. Also supporting 

the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports is the cumulative effect of the depreciated U.S. dollar 

since 2002. 

The global economic slowdown has dampened inflation. Even with the U.S. and world economies 

projected to move back toward stronger, sustainable growth, global inflation is projected at 

relatively low rates, averaging about 3 percent globally through 2018. The U.S. Federal Reserve 

Board and other major central banks are assumed to continue policies to balance growth against 

increasing inflation. 

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth

Percent

World

United States
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 9

Global Economic Slowdown 

The U.S. recession and the world economic slowdown assumed for 2009 reflect the current global 

financial crisis. The U.S. housing market downturn, which began in late 2006, spread to the housing 

finance sector and then into the banking and financial sectors worldwide, significantly affecting the 

U.S. economy by the spring of 2008. By the third quarter of 2008, effects of the financial crisis had 

spread to much of the developed world. Numerous policy actions—lowering interest rates by the 

world’s central banks, targeting activities by various agencies to aid homeowners, providing a fiscal 

stimulus package, and implementing rescue packages to support failing financial institutions—were 

designed to mitigate the size of the economic downturn. Despite these policies, the United States and 

most developed economies are in recession and economic growth in the developing world is slowing. 

The global economic slowdown has been severe enough to reverse the sharp rise in oil prices, which 

likely contributed to the economic slowdown. Crude oil prices, which were near $150 per barrel at 

their peak in mid-2008, fell to under $50 per barrel by the end of the year. Other commodity prices 

slid as well. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies except the yen, reflecting a 

flight from risky assets. 

U.S. farm operators entered the economic downturn in a strong financial position following a period of 

record farm incomes and rising farmland values. However, lower prices, in part brought on by the 

global economic downturn, will reduce U.S. farm income in 2009. Additionally, any declines in 

off-farm incomes could negatively affect the finances of farm households. Lenders specializing in 

farm lending are in relatively good financial shape with farm loan default and loss rates only recently 

creeping up. Small rural banks, which are major providers of farm operating credit, do not appear to 

have been large investors in the risky securities that have troubled larger banks. Nonetheless, a large 

share of farm credit comes from these larger banks. 

The U.S. and world economies are assumed to improve after 2009. Growth prospects in 2010 are for a 

solid, but not stellar, economic rebound, with the U.S. dollar weakening somewhat and crude oil prices 

rising. By 2012, the macroeconomic assumptions largely reflect a return to expected long-term trends, 

with higher U.S. interest rates as the Federal Reserve Board boosts rates to forestall inflation. 

Macroeconomic Outlook Uncertainty 

There is significant uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook. The decline in prices for oil and other 

commodities, low short-term interest rates, and the potential for conditions in credit markets to be 

eased could bring a shorter and shallower economic slowdown than in the macroeconomic 

assumptions. Rapid action by policymakers and regulators to address various aspects of the financial 

and housing crises provides further support for this alternative outcome. 

However, there is also the possibility of a deeper and longer lasting U.S. recession than assumed. The 

recent declines in consumer spending, the large overhang of excess housing, and the spillover of the 

mortgage crisis into other domestic and international financial markets are some of the factors that 

could slow the economy further. 

There is also a very small possibility of sustained and deep price deflation. Consistent with this 

scenario would be a sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven for international financial 

markets and a sharper and more protracted slowdown in world economic growth going into 2010. This 

situation, if realized, could have severe short-to-medium term repercussions for farm commodity prices 

as well as the volume and value of U.S. agricultural exports. 
10 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GDP growth for developed countries, European Union, and Japan

Percent

Developed countries

Japan

European Union

Developed economies are projected to grow at rates almost half a percentage point less than the 

1970-2008 historical average, to an average around 2.2 percent in 2009-18. Economic growth 

rates for the European Union (EU) remain below 2 percent per year in the projection period, also 

around a 0.5 percentage point below their historical average. Japan is projected to have modest 

growth of 1.25 percent per year on average. As a consequence, both the EU and Japan account for 

smaller shares of global GDP. 

 The EU does not grow as rapidly as the U.S. economy because of lingering structural 

rigidities, particularly inflexible labor laws and a very expensive social security system. 

Political difficulties also constrain the benefits of economic integration, particularly with 

continued restrictions on labor mobility between EU countries and a very cumbersome EU 

decisionmaking process. Unemployment rates decline from double-digit rates, however, 

indicating some progress in increasing employment flexibility. 

 Japan continues to face constraints to economic growth, largely the result of long-term 

structural rigidities (such as legal constraints to new business entry), a difficult political 

process for economic reform, and a rapidly aging population. Japan’s labor market 

liberalization partly offsets these constraints, aiding productivity growth. Japan’s 

increasing integration with the other economies of Asia, especially China, further mitigates 

the growth constraints in the Japanese economy. The projections assume sustained 

economic growth in Japan of just over 1 percent per year, with the country’s share of world 

GDP declining to 7.5 percent by 2018, down from almost 11 percent in 1991. While 

Japan’s projected growth remains relatively low compared with most other countries, it 

represents a modest improvement from its growth in the 1990s. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 11

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet Union

Percent

Developing Asia

Former Soviet Union

Latin America

Africa

Economic growth in developing countries is projected to average 5.6 percent annually during 2009-18. 

These countries will play an increasingly important role in global growth in food demand and will 

become a more important destination for U.S. agricultural exports. Relatively high income growth, 

along with large responsiveness of consumption and imports of food and feed to income growth in 

these countries, underlies this result. As incomes rise in developing countries, consumers generally 

diversify their diets, moving away from staple foods to include more meat, dairy products, fruits, 

vegetables, and processed foods (including vegetable oils). These consumption shifts increase import 

demand for feedstuffs and high-value food products. 

 Continued strong growth in China, India, and the rest of Asia make this region an increasingly 

important part of the global economy, with Asia’s share of world GDP rising to almost 30 

percent by the end of the projection period. Relatively high oil prices, by historical standards, 

assumed in the projections modestly constrain Asia from even higher economic growth since 

the manufacturing sector in Asian countries is far more dependent on energy for GDP growth 

than more developed economies. China’s economic growth has been consistently the strongest 

in Asia, exceeding 10 percent between 2003 and 2007. While some slowing is expected, 

China’s growth is expected to average more than 7.5 percent over the next decade. India’s 

projected average economic growth of 7.5 percent per year puts it in the top tier of high-growth 

countries. Nonetheless, India is still a low-income country, with real (inflation-adjusted) 

2005-based per capita income of $849 in 2008, compared with $2,350 in China. Continued 

strong income growth is expected to bring India’s real per capita income to more than $1,500 

by 2018 and is expected to move a significant number of people out of poverty. Projected 

growth for Southeast Asia exceeds 4.9 percent for the next decade while growth in developing 

countries of East Asia is projected to be 5.5 percent. Although large, these projected growth 

rates are below the very strong average economic growth in these regions in 1971-2008. 

 Long-term growth of 4 percent is projected for Latin America. An overall improvement in 

macroeconomic policies has attracted foreign capital inflows (particularly foreign direct 

investment, notably to Chile, Colombia, and Brazil) and sustained growth in the region. 

 Economic growth in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to average 

5.0 percent annually for the next decade as Russia, Ukraine, and other FSU countries benefit 

from their shift to more market-oriented economies. Russia and other energy-rich FSU 

countries also benefit from relatively high oil prices. 
12 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

1981-90

1991-2000

2001-08

2009-18

Population growth continues to slow

Percent

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

World

United 

States Former

Soviet 

Union

Africa

Middle 

East

Asia

Latin

America

Developing

countries

A continued slowing of population growth around the world limits increases in food and 

agricultural demand over the next decade. World population growth declines from an annual rate 

of 1.7 percent in the 1980s to an average of just over 1.1 percent per year for the projection period. 

 Developed countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.35 percent over 

2009-18. Projected annual average population growth rate for the United States is the highest 

among developed countries, at 0.9 percent, in part reflecting large immigration. 

 Overall, population in the former Soviet Union is projected to decline moderately. Population 

growth rates in developing economies are projected to be sharply lower than rates in the 1980s 

and 1990s, but remain above those in developed countries and the FSU. As a result, the share 

of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to nearly 84 percent by 

2018, compared to 78 percent in the 1980s and 80 percent in the 1990s. 

 China and India together account for more than one-third of the world’s population. 

China’s population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.6 percent in 

2009-18. The population growth rate in India, the world’s second most populous nation, is 

projected to decline from 2.1 percent to 1.5 percent per year between the same periods. 

 Brazil’s population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year in 1981-90 to 1.1 percent 

annually in 2009-18. Sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth rate declines from 2.9 

percent to 2.3 percent per year between the same periods, leaving this impoverished region 

with the highest population growth rate in the world. 

 There are a number of countries with declining populations, including Japan, Russia, 

Ukraine, and countries in Western and Central Europe. Additionally, several countries in 

Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to have declining populations resulting from the AIDS 

epidemic, including the Republic of South Africa. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 13

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar projected to stabilize 1/

Index values, 2005=100

1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights, 

based on 192 countries.

The U.S. dollar depreciated 20 percent between February 2002 and April 2008, a facilitating factor 

in the growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Since April 2008, the U.S. dollar has generally 

appreciated. On an annual basis, the U.S. dollar is projected to strengthen moderately from 2010 

to 2018. Despite this projected appreciation, the dollar’s low level relative to the early 2000s is 

likely to continue to positively impact U.S. exports. 

 Strong GDP growth in the United States relative to the EU and Japan will tend to reverse 

the appreciation of the euro to the U.S. dollar and offsets some of the trade-driven 

appreciation of the yen. 

 China initiated a process for appreciating its currency in 2005 after a long period of 

maintaining a fixed nominal exchange rate and an undervalued currency. The projections 

assume that China allows its real exchange rate to continue to appreciate, but at decreasing 

rates. The appreciation of China’s currency also leads to some appreciation of other Asian 

currencies. These exchange rate developments will strengthen U.S. agricultural exports to 

Asian countries. 

 Among agricultural products, U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products 

tend to be the most sensitive to swings in the U.S. dollar’s value, because they face more 

global trade competition. 
14 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. crude oil prices

Dollars per barrel

Refiner acquisition cost,

crude oil imports

Refiner acquisition cost, 

adjusted for inflation

Crude oil prices rose sharply from late 2002 into 2008, much of which reflected increased crude oil 

demand due to a robust world economic growth and rapid manufacturing growth in China, India, 

and other countries in Asia. At its peak in July 2008, the refiner acquisition cost of crude oil 

imports reached $147 a barrel. The weakening of the U.S. and global economies toward the end of 

2008 and resulting decline in demand for petroleum and other energy supplies pushed crude oil 

prices down more than 70 percent from the peak values. 

 Crude oil prices are assumed to rebound in 2009 and average about $60 per barrel. Prices 

are then assumed to increase over the remainder of the projection period as global 

economic activity picks up. From 2010 through 2018, crude oil prices are expected to rise 

somewhat faster than the general inflation rate. By the end of the projection period, the 

refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is projected to be near $100 per barrel. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 15

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions

Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GDP, billion dollars

 Nominal 14,295 13,808 14,508 15,212 16,013 16,840 17,710 18,624 19,586 20,597 21,661 22,780 

 Real 2000 chained dollars 11,674 11,524 11,615 11,929 12,287 12,643 13,010 13,387 13,775 14,175 14,586 15,009

 percent change 2.0 1.3 -0.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

Disposable personal income

 Nominal (billions) 10,516 10,171 10,737 11,263 11,838 12,441 13,076 13,743 14,444 15,180 15,954 16,768 

 percent change 5.5 3.4 2.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

 Nominal per capita, dollars 34,486 33,666 34,883 36,255 37,757 39,324 40,959 42,666 44,447 46,306 48,245 50,270 

 percent change 4.5 2.4 1.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

 Real (billion 2000 chained) 8,748 8,757 9,002 8,644 9,263 9,531 9,808 10,092 10,385 10,686 10,996 11,315 

 percent change 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

 Real per capita, 2000 dollars 28,686 28,615 28,448 28,976 29,544 30,126 30,722 31,332 31,957 32,597 33,251 33,921

 percent change 1.8 0.3 -0.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2

Consumer spending

 Real (billion 2000 chained) 8,327 8,285 8,253 8,493 8,730 8,975 9,226 9,484 9,750 10,023 10,304 10,592

 percent change 2.8 0.9 -0.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Inflation measures

 GDP price index, chained, 2000=100 119.8 122.5 124.9 127.5 130.3 133.2 136.1 139.1 142.2 145.3 148.5 151.8

 percent change 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

 CPI-U, 1982-84=100 207.3 216.3 221.0 226.5 232.2 238.0 244.0 250.1 256.3 262.7 269.3 276.0

 percent change 2.9 4.3 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 PPI, finished goods 1982=100 166.6 179.9 181.7 185.3 188.5 191.3 194.2 196.9 199.7 202.5 205.3 208.2

 percent change 3.9 8.0 1.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

 PPI, crude goods 1982=100 207.1 254.7 229.3 236.1 242.0 246.9 251.1 254.8 258.4 261.8 265.2 268.6

 percent change 12.1 23.0 -10.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3

Crude oil price, $/barrel

 EIA refiner acq. cost, imports 67.1 96.3 61.0 70.7 75.5 79.0 82.0 85.1 88.3 91.5 94.9 98.4

 percent change 14.0 43.5 -36.7 15.9 6.8 4.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

 Real 2000 chained dollars 56.0 78.7 48.8 55.4 57.9 59.3 60.2 61.2 62.1 63.0 63.9 64.8

 percent change 11.0 40.4 -37.9 13.5 4.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor compensation per hour

 nonfarm business, 1992=100 175.3 182.0 187.8 193.4 198.6 204.0 209.5 215.2 221.0 226.9 233.1 239.4

 percent change 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Interest rates, percent

 3-month Treasury bills 4.4 1.5 0.9 2.0 3.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

 3-month commercial paper 5.1 2.4 2.9 2.5 4.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

 Bank prime rate 8.1 5.2 4.1 5.5 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

 10-year Treasury bonds 4.6 3.7 3.6 4.0 5.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8

 Moody's Aaa bond yield index 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

Labor and population

Civilian unemployment

 rate, percent 4.7 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8

Nonfarm payroll emp., millions 137.7 137.8 137.6 138.5 139.5 140.6 141.9 143.2 144.4 145.7 147.1 148.4

 percent change 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Total population, millions 302.1 304.9 307.8 310.7 313.5 316.4 319.2 322.1 325.0 327.8 330.7 333.6

 percent change 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Domestic macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. CPI-U is the consumer price index for all urban consumers. PPI is the producer price 

index. EIA is the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
16 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-2018

Bil. 2005 

dollars Percent

2005 

dollars Percent change

World 48,327 100.0 7,292 3.8 2.7 1.7 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.2

Less United States 35,277 72.6 5,576 4.5 3.2 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 2.5 3.3 3.4

North America 14,325 30.1 42,878 2.1 1.2 -0.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.5

Canada 1,274 2.7 38,688 2.7 0.7 0.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.5

United States 13,050 27.4 43,337 2.0 1.3 -0.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.5

Latin America 3,027 6.2 5,293 5.2 4.2 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.4 4.0

Mexico 830 1.7 7,638 3.3 2.2 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.5 2.4 3.5

Caribbean & Central America 312 0.6 3,919 4.2 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.8 3.1 3.2 4.4

South America 1,885 3.8 4,913 6.3 5.3 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.0 3.9 4.2

Argentina 205 0.4 5,118 8.6 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.3 3.7

Brazil 1,016 2.2 5,526 5.4 5.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 2.6 3.5 4.0

Other 609 1.2 4,065 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.3 4.6 4.7

Europe 15,252 31.8 28,836 2.9 1.4 0.7 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0

European Union-27 14,452 30.2 29,470 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0

Other Europe 800 1.7 21,234 3.7 2.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0

Former Soviet Union 1,202 2.4 4,334 8.5 6.2 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.8 -4.0 7.0 4.5

Russia 922 1.8 6,521 8.1 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.5 -3.6 6.5 4.5

Ukraine 97 0.2 2,102 7.7 5.0 2.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 -7.7 7.3 4.2

Other 183 0.4 2,037 11.2 8.1 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.9 -3.8 9.8 4.8

Asia and Oceania 11,980 24.3 3,239 5.9 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.6 4.5

East Asia 8,875 18.1 5,711 5.6 4.3 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 4.3 4.2

China 2,873 5.5 2,173 11.9 9.8 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.7 10.5 10.1 7.6

Hong Kong 197 0.4 28,276 6.4 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.9 4.4

Japan 4,468 9.4 35,060 2.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.2

Korea 933 1.9 19,343 5.0 3.9 3.0 4.0 4.7 4.4 6.2 4.6 4.0

Taiwan 389 0.8 17,035 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.3 6.5 4.3 4.0

Southeast Asia 1,073 2.2 1,860 6.4 5.4 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.9

Indonesia 335 0.7 1,428 6.3 6.0 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.4 5.2 4.8

Malaysia 152 0.3 6,116 6.3 6.0 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.0 7.2 5.1 4.8

Philippines 118 0.2 1,250 7.3 4.4 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.3 3.1 4.7 4.6

Thailand 206 0.4 3,173 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.9

Vietnam 61 0.1 720 8.4 6.7 6.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.4 7.6 7.4

South Asia 1,144 2.3 747 8.5 7.2 6.4 6.9 7.8 7.6 5.2 7.0 7.2

Bangladesh 61 0.1 404 6.5 6.2 5.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 4.8 5.7 5.9

India 906 1.8 802 9.0 7.5 6.5 7.3 8.3 8.0 5.5 7.4 7.5

Pakistan 129 0.3 760 6.4 5.7 6.0 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.0 5.5 5.4

Oceania 888 1.8 24,972 4.1 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1

Australia 753 1.6 36,271 4.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.1

New Zealand 105 0.2 25,514 3.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.0

Middle East 1,406 2.9 5,286 4.9 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.4 3.9 4.8

Iran 58 0.1 884 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.0 5.9 4.6

Iraq 142 0.3 5,178 5.1 6.8 10.5 8.1 7.7 6.3 9.5 12.3 6.7

Saudi Arabia 334 0.7 12,112 3.4 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 2.6 4.3 5.3

Turkey 381 0.8 5,352 4.5 3.9 3.2 4.0 4.6 4.9 3.6 4.7 4.5

Other 491 1.0 6,601 6.1 6.3 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.8 5.0 4.1

Africa 1,135 2.3 1,194 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 2.0 4.9 5.2

North Africa 348 0.7 2,124 4.9 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.0 3.5 4.6 5.1

Algeria 105 0.2 3,148 3.4 3.6 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.0 1.7 4.1 5.0

Egypt 112 0.2 1,391 7.2 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.7

Morocco 57 0.1 1,684 2.2 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 2.4 4.6 5.0

Tunisia 31 0.1 3,044 6.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 4.8 4.9 5.8

Sub-Saharan Africa 787 1.6 1,000 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.4 1.3 5.0 5.2

Republic of South Africa 245 0.5 5,070 5.1 3.6 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.0 1.8 3.9 4.6

Other Sub-Saharan Africa 541 1.1 733 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 1.1 5.6 5.5

Average Share of 

world GDP

Region/country 2005-2007

International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008.

Per capita 

income, 

GDP, 2007 2007
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 17

Table 3. Population growth assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-2018

Millions Percent change

World1 6,628 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1

Less United States 6,326 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1

North America 334 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8

Canada 33 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8

United States 301 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9

Latin America 572 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2

Mexico 109 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1

Caribbean & Central America 80 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4

South America 384 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1

Argentina 40 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0

Brazil 194 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.1

Other 150 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.3

Europe 529 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1

European Union-27 490 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Other Europe 38 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3

Former Soviet Union 277 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1

Russia 141 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5

Ukraine 46 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6

Other 90 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7

Asia and Oceania 3,699 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1

East Asia 1,554 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5

China 1,322 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6

Hong Kong 7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.4

Japan 127 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3

Korea 48 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2

Taiwan 23 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2

Southeast Asia 577 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.1

Indonesia 235 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0

Malaysia 25 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7

Philippines 94 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9

Thailand 65 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5

Vietnam 85 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.0

South Asia 1,532 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6

Bangladesh 150 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8

India 1,130 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5

Pakistan 169 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.8

Oceania 36 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3

Australia 21 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1

New Zealand 4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9

Middle East 266 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.6

Iran 65 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0

Iraq 27 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.3

Saudi Arabia 28 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 3.7 2.5 1.5

Turkey 71 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.9

Other 74 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.5

Africa 951 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.1

North Africa 164 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4

Algeria 33 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.1

Egypt 80 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.5

Morocco 34 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.4

Tunisia 10 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.9

Sub-Saharan Africa 787 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3

Republic of South Africa 48 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 1.6 1.0 -0.1

Other Sub-Saharan Africa 738 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4

Average Population 

Region/country in 2007

1/ Totals for the world and world less United States include countries not otherwise listed in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. August 2008.
18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Crops 

Near-term weakness in the global economy diminishes demand growth for crops over the next 

several years. However, steady economic growth assumed later in the projections provides a more 

favorable demand setting. Although corn-based ethanol production in the United States is 

projected to slow, the large expansion in recent years keeps this use of corn high. In combination, 

these factors support longer run increases in global consumption and trade, with prices, although 

lower than in early 2008, remaining at historically high levels. 

Projections for field crops reflect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 

(2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. An important 

change in the 2008 Farm Act was the reduction in the maximum acreage enrollment in the 

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Rather than the previous cap on enrollment of 39.2 million 

acres, the new farm legislation sets the maximum at 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 

2009. With CRP enrollment at 34.8 million acres on September 30, 2008, this policy change 

provides some additional cropland for potential use in production rather than tightening cropland 

availability over the projection period. 

Sustained high prices prompted by strong demand combined with reduced CRP enrollment keep 

U.S. cropland use high in the projections. Although declining somewhat from the high plantings 

in 2008 of over 252 million acres, projected plantings for the 8 major field crops remain near 

250 million acres over the next 10 years. 

225

250

275

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, 

upland cotton, and soybeans.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 19

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Million acres

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Plantings of different crops are influenced by expected net returns. Net returns are determined by 

market prices, yields, and production costs, with returns augmented by marketing loan benefits 

when prices are low. Producer planting decisions are also affected by revenue protection available 

through the Federal Crop Insurance program and the new Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) 

program, which starts in 2009 under the 2008 Farm Act. 

 A gradual shift to corn away from other crops reflects the high levels of domestic cornbased ethanol production and gains in exports that keep corn demand and producer returns 

strong. Following a decline in 2008, corn acreage increases to 90 million acres by 2011 

and remains at or above that level over the remainder of the projection period. 

 

 Soybean plantings decline over the next several years, but remain above 70 million acres as 

net returns remain favorable. 

 

 Wheat plantings decline from the high level of 2008 as producer returns are lower. Wheat 

acreage falls below 60 million acres in the longer run as weak demand growth reduces the 

crop’s competitiveness for land relative to other crops. 
20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Corn-based Ethanol Expansion Projected To Slow 

Ethanol production in the United States has increased rapidly over the past several years, from less 

than 3 billion gallons in 2003 to over 9 billion gallons in 2008. Most ethanol production in the 

United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with close to a third of total corn use expected 

to go to ethanol production in the 2008/09 corn crop year. 

These projections assume the tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cent-per-gallon 

tariff on imported fuel ethanol remain in effect. While expansion in the ethanol industry continues, 

smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected, largely reflecting moderate growth in overall 

gasoline consumption in the United States. By the end of the projection period, ethanol production 

accounts for about 35 percent of corn use and corn-based ethanol production exceeds 9 percent of 

annual gasoline consumption. The continued presence of ethanol demand in the corn sector, in 

combination with other long-term factors, holds prices for corn and many other crops well above 

their historical levels, although season-average annual prices are not projected to reach the record 

highs seen in the first half of 2008. 

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. corn: Use for ethanol production

Billion bushels

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Ethanol

FSI less ethanol 1/

Exports

Feed & residual 

U.S. corn use

Billion bushels

1/ Food, seed, and industrial use less ethanol. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 21

0

2

4

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. corn: Feed use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed use

Exports

Ethanol

Domestic corn use grows throughout the projection period, largely reflecting increases in corn 

used in the production of ethanol. Global economic growth underlies increases in U.S. corn 

exports. 

 Continued increases are projected for corn used to produce ethanol over the next 10 years, 

although the pace slows from the rapid gains of the past several years. Projected gains after 

2009/10 are largely in line with moderate expected increases in overall gasoline usage in 

the United States. 

 Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat 

production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol 

production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up 

and growth in availability of distillers grains slows with the reduced pace of corn-based 

ethanol expansion. 

 Gains in food and industrial uses of corn (other than for ethanol production) are projected 

to be smaller than increases in population. Consumer dietary concerns and other changes 

in tastes and preferences limit increases in the combined use of corn for high fructose corn 

syrup, glucose, and dextrose to about half the rate of population gain. Starch use initially 

declines due to the slowing U.S. economy, but grows moderately thereafter. 

 U.S. corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support 

growth in meat production, with the U.S. share of global corn trade holding in the 55-60 

percent range. 
22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Overall demand in the U.S. wheat sector grows slowly through the projection period. 

 

 Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is 

projected to show moderate gains, generally in line with population increases. 

 

 Feed use of wheat, a lower value use of the crop, declines through the projection period 

from the relatively high levels of 2008/09. 

 U.S. wheat exports increase slowly over the projection period as competition from the 

European Union (EU), Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the Black Sea region limits 

further gains. In particular, wheat prices are projected at levels high enough that the EU 

can export wheat without subsidies, thus permitting higher EU exports. Although the U.S. 

market share initially increases from 22 percent in 2008/09, it falls over the latter part of 

the projections to about 21 percent by 2018/19. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 23

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

Domestic use of soybeans continues to rise slowly. U.S. soybean exports remain high but with 

little growth as more soybeans are processed domestically. 

 

 Declines in the livestock sector initially reduce demand for soybean meal for livestock 

feed, thereby lowering domestic soybean crush in the near term. However, once meat 

production gains resume, soybean crush will follow. Then, longrun growth in domestic 

soybean crush is mostly driven by increasing domestic soybean meal demand. 

 U.S. soybean exports hold fairly flat near 1.2 billion bushels. While this is a historically 

high level of exports, competition from South America limits U.S. exports from further 

growth. Consequently, the U.S. market share of global soybean trade declines from 40 

percent in 2009/10 to about 30 percent at the end of the projections. 

 Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for 

the growing U.S. livestock sector, lead to only small gains in U.S. soybean meal exports 

from 2009/10-2018/19, reducing the U.S. export share in global soybean meal trade. U.S 

soybean oil exports similarly face increasing competition from South America. 
24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans

Dollars per bushel

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Projected farm-level prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans fall from the very high levels seen in 

2007/08 and 2008/09 that reflected a number of short-term factors. However, prices are projected 

to remain historically high due to the influence of continuing longer term factors, including 

structural shifts that drive demand for these crops. 

 Corn prices initially fall from their high 2008/09 level as increases in ethanol production 

slow and corn stocks build. In the longer run, corn prices remain higher than their pre2006 levels due to continued demand for corn to produce ethanol as well as growth in feed 

use and exports. 

 Land-use competition from corn keeps soybean acreage from rising and holds soybean 

prices high throughout the projections. 

 As for other crops, wheat prices decline from current levels in the early years of the 

projections, although they remain historically high. Price increases in the latter years of the 

projections are moderate as yield gains mostly offset demand increases (despite falling 

acreage), keeping stocks relatively stable. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. rice: Domestic use and exports

Million hundredweight

Domestic use

Exports

Continued expansion in domestic food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice 

exports increase as well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade. 

 

 Domestic use of rice is projected to grow somewhat faster than population growth. Imports 

of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the 

projections. 

 U.S. rice exports are projected to increase as the U.S. price difference over Asian 

competitors falls, increasing U.S. competitiveness in global markets. Exports of rough rice 

to Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. 

export expansion. 

 Stocks of rice gradually increase in the projection period, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio at 

11-12 percent. 

 Global rice prices fall over the next several years from recent highs. Over the latter part of 

the projections, global prices increase about 2.5 percent per year, approaching $11 per 

hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection period. These price increases 

largely reflect tightening global stocks due to slow yield growth and little ability to expand 

area in most producing countries. This effect is partially offset by declining global per 

capita disappearance, largely due to dietary shifts away from staple foods in Asia as 

incomes rise. 

 U.S. rice prices follow a similar pattern to global prices, initially declining from the high 

levels of 2008/09 before rising in the latter years of the projections. By the end of the 

projection period, U.S. rice prices increase to $12 per hundredweight. 
26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use

Exports

U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to decline in the projections while upland cotton exports 

rise after 2010/11. 

 

 The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end 

of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to represent less than one-fourth of 

total use. Underlying this projection, apparel imports by the United States increase over 

the next 10 years, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel 

industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States. 

 U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to decline through 2010/11, reflecting a reduction 

in acreage and production and diminished availability of stocks. Exports then grow 

moderately, accounting for over three-fourths of U.S. cotton use by the end of the 

projection period. As a consequence, while the U.S. cotton trade share initially falls below 

30 percent, it then rebounds to nearly 34 percent by the end of the projection period. 

 

 Cotton stocks decline in the first several years of the projections as some acreage shifts to 

other crops. As projected cotton prices strengthen after 2009/10, improved net returns 

provide economic incentives for cotton acreage to rise, and stocks increase through the end 

of the projections. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 27

Two primary determinants of the U.S. sugar projections are implementation of the sugar and 

energy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and increased imports of sugar from Mexico. 

 The 2008 Farm Act increased the raw sugar loan rate from 18 cents per pound in the 2008 crop 

year to 18.25 cents per pound in the 2009 crop year, to 18.50 cents per pound in the 2010 crop 

year, and to 18.75 cents per pound in the 2011 and 2012 crop years. The refined beet sugar 

loan rate is specified to equal 128.5 percent of the raw cane sugar loan rate. Marketing 

allotments for sugar are set annually at a level not less than 85 percent of estimated sugar 

deliveries for domestic human consumption. 

 Higher support prices help to keep sugar competitive with alternative crops. Beet sugar 

production averages 5.089 million short tons, raw value (STRV) per year over the projections, 

while cane sugar production averages 3.822 million STRV. Both of these projections are about 

9 percent higher than production in the 6-year period covered by the 2002 Farm Act. Higher 

support prices also help to preserve processing capacity. Beet processing capacity is projected 

to increase 3.3 percent in the Red River Valley of the Northern Plains and 2.2 percent in the 

Pacific Northwest, while capacity in the Great Lakes and Great Plains regions are down 

marginally. Cane processing is about the same at the end of the projection period as it was at 

the beginning. (The proposed sale of sugarcane land by the U.S. Sugar Corporation in Florida 

was not included in these projections.) 

 The 2008 Farm Act also introduced the Feedstock Flexibility Program, which requires the 

diversion of sugar from food use to ethanol producers, if needed, to keep sugar prices above 

levels at which sugar processors might otherwise forfeit sugar under loan to the Commodity 

Credit Corporation (CCC). Consequently, there are no sugar loan forfeitures projected because 

of USDA purchases of sugar under this program. These purchases are projected to begin in 

2013/14, with the largest projected purchases in 2014/15. Purchase levels are then somewhat 

lower over the remaining years of the projections. From 2013/14 through the end of the 

projection period, U.S. sugar prices are at the minimum level to avoid forfeiture—about 

21.30 cents per pound for raw sugar (No. 16 NY contract). 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. sugar stocks

Million short tons

Crop year

Total stocks

CCC surplus 

disbursements
28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015

Other imports

TRQ impor ts

U.S. sugar imports

Million short tons

Crop year

Increased U.S. imports of sugar from Mexico are a result of increased use of high fructose corn 

syrup (HFCS) in Mexico and duty-free sweetener trade (sugar and HFCS) between the United 

States and Mexico. After a phase-in period, HFCS use by Mexico’s beverage industry is assumed 

to be 75 percent of total sweetener demand by that industry. 

 Although there are fluctuations in sugar exports from Mexico to the United States through 

2014/15, on average these exports increase by 159,000 STRV per year. After this period, 

Mexican sugar consumption increases annually by about 50,000 tons (resulting in per capita 

consumption rising only slightly) and Mexican sugar exports to the United States drop by a 

corresponding amount. 

 Raw and refined sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) are established at the beginning of the 

marketing year at the minimum levels required to comply with international trade agreements 

approved by the U.S. Congress. There are no projections of any midyear increases in TRQs 

throughout the projection period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 29

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 2.1 percent annually over the next decade, 

reaching $71.6 billion in calendar year 2018, up from $58 billion in 2008. U.S. horticultural trade 

continues to become increasingly important, both in terms of the export share of production and the 

import share of consumption. 

 Within horticultural products, vegetables and melons continue to rank first in farm sales value over 

both fruits and nuts and greenhouse and nursery crops. Annual growth over the next 10 years is 

expected to be fastest for fruits and tree nuts, at 2.6 percent, followed by vegetables at 2.0 percent, 

and nursery crops at 1.6 percent. 

 The volume of farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise annually at 0.4 percent. 

Total vegetable production volume is projected to expand at 0.6 percent annually and fruit 

production is forecast to decline on average by 0.1 percent in the next decade. The gradual 

increases in U.S. vegetable production volume hold gains in producer prices for vegetables at an 

annual 1.3 percent rate through the next decade. Combined with average price increases of 2.7 

percent for fruits and nuts, farm produce prices are estimated to increase by 1.9 percent annually in 

the projection period. 

 The average growth of U.S. horticultural import value is forecast at 3.7 percent from fiscal year (FY) 

2009 to 2018. The value of exports is forecast to grow at 3 percent, with both fruits and vegetables 

averaging 2.8 percent in the next 10 years. Import growth and export growth of fresh-market 

vegetables and fruits exceed that of their processed products. The U.S. trade deficit in horticulture 

crops and products increases from $14 billion in FY 2008 to more than $21 billion in FY 2018. Of 

the total $28 billion U.S. exports of horticultural products in FY 2018, fruits and nuts contribute 

$12.8 billion and vegetables represent $6.5 billion. Total imports of $50.5 billion in FY 2018 

include $16 billion worth of fruits and nuts, and $12 billion of vegetables and vegetable products. 

 Imports will increasingly supplement the domestic supply of horticulture crops and products. The 

share of imports in U.S. consumption of horticulture crops and products (based on dollar value) is 

projected to climb from 48 percent in 2008 to 54 percent by FY 2018. Horticultural exports are 

projected to increase their share of U.S. production value from 36 percent in FY 2008 to 39 percent 

in FY 2018. The import and export shares of fruits and nuts are about twice as large as the 

corresponding import and export shares of vegetables. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Value of horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year
30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million acres

Corn 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7

Sorghum 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Barley 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Oats 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Wheat 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2

Upland cotton 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Soybeans 5.8 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5

Subtotal 24.8 23.5 23.0 21.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.6

Other 12.0 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4

Total 36.8 34.8 34.0 31.9 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.0 32.0

Crop allocation

Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018

Target price

 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018 2008-2009 2010-2018

Dollars 1

Corn 0.28 1.95 1.95 2.63 2.63 2.35 2.35

Sorghum 0.35 1.95 1.95 2.57 2.63 2.22 2.28

Barley 0.24 1.85 1.95 2.24 2.63 2.00 2.39

Oats 0.024 1.33 1.39 1.44 1.79 1.416 1.766

Wheat 0.52 2.75 2.94 3.92 4.17 3.40 3.65

Rice 2.35 6.50 6.50 10.50 10.50 8.15 8.15

Upland cotton 0.0667 0.52 0.52 0.7125 0.7125 0.6458 0.6458

Soybeans 0.44 5.00 5.00 5.80 6.00 5.36 5.56

1/ Units are dollars per bushel except for upland cotton (per pound) and rice (per hundredweight). 

Direct payment 

rate

Marketing assistance 

loan rate Counter-cyclical trigger
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 31

Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million acres

Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5

Sorghum 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3

Barley 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Oats 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Wheat 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5

Rice 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3

Soybeans 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0

 Total 247.5 252.6 249.2 249.3 250.5 249.6 249.3 248.8 248.4 249.0 249.1 249.1

Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3

Sorghum 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3

Barley 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Oats 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Wheat 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6

Rice 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1

Upland cotton 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3

Soybeans 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1

 Total 226.3 231.4 227.6 227.8 229.0 228.0 227.7 227.2 226.9 227.6 227.7 227.7
32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Yields1

Corn 153.8 157.0 151.1 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0 

Sorghum 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 74.2

Barley 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0 60.4

Oats 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8 60.9

Wheat 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7 40.5

Rice 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,185 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 

Upland cotton 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 864

Soybeans 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 41.7 46.5 

Production2

Corn 12,020 13,074 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580 

Sorghum 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405 505

Barley 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250 212

Oats 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 92

Wheat 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,067 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310 

Rice 203.5 213.0 197.5 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2 

Upland cotton 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400 

Soybeans 2,921 3,110 3,100 2,676 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260 

Exports2

Corn 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,436 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225 

Sorghum 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 278

Barley 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 41

Oats 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Wheat 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,264 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 

Rice 107.0 109.0 107.9 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0 

Upland cotton 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400 

Soybeans 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,161 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200 

Soybean meal 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 

Ending stocks2

Corn 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,624 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589 

Sorghum 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 53

Barley 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83 68

Oats 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59 67

Wheat 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620 306

Rice 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2 29.4

Upland cotton 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437 

Soybeans 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 205 238 

Prices3

Corn 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Sorghum 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35

Barley 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95

Oats 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35

Wheat 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45

Rice 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04

Upland cotton 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635

Soybeans 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80

Soybean oil 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345

Soybean meal 335.9 285.0 260.0 255.0 252.5 251.0 246.0 249.0 250.5 250.5 250.5 252.0

1/ Bushels per acre except for upland cotton and rice (pounds per acre).

2/ Million bushels except for upland cotton (thousand bales), rice (million hundredweight), and soybean meal (thousand tons).

3/ Dollars per bushel except for upland cotton and soybean oil (per pound), rice (per hundredweight), and soybean meal (per ton).
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 33

Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 93.6 85.9 88.0 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 90.5

 Harvested acres 86.5 78.2 80.8 81.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 83.3

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 151.1 153.8 157.0 159.0 161.0 163.0 165.0 167.0 169.0 171.0 173.0 175.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 1,304 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514

 Production 13,074 12,020 12,685 13,005 13,330 13,495 13,660 13,830 13,995 14,245 14,410 14,580

 Imports 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

 Supply 14,398 13,659 13,824 14,024 14,374 14,684 14,949 15,174 15,354 15,599 15,849 16,109

 Feed & residual 5,974 5,300 5,300 5,350 5,400 5,450 5,525 5,600 5,675 5,725 5,775 5,850

 Food, seed, & industrial 4,364 5,335 5,520 5,620 5,750 5,885 5,995 6,105 6,190 6,275 6,360 6,445

 Ethanol for fuel 3,026 4,000 4,200 4,300 4,425 4,550 4,650 4,750 4,825 4,900 4,975 5,050

 Domestic use 10,338 10,635 10,820 10,970 11,150 11,335 11,520 11,705 11,865 12,000 12,135 12,295

 Exports 2,436 1,900 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 2,200 2,225

 Total use 12,774 12,535 12,820 12,995 13,200 13,410 13,620 13,830 14,015 14,175 14,335 14,520

 Ending stocks 1,624 1,124 1,004 1,029 1,174 1,274 1,329 1,344 1,339 1,424 1,514 1,589

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 9.0 7.8 7.9 8.9 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.9

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.20 4.40 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 226 301 308 305 309 312 316 319 322 326 330 334

 Per bushel 1.50 1.95 1.96 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 408 376 320 315 303 291 287 299 311 315 319 323

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.
34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3

 Harvested acres 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 74.2 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 32 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63

 Production 505 465 435 420 420 415 415 410 410 410 410 405

 Imports 000000000000

 Supply 537 518 503 488 488 483 478 473 473 473 473 468

 Feed & residual 172 240 225 210 205 200 185 170 160 150 140 125

 Food, seed, & industrial 35 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

 Domestic 207 310 295 280 275 270 255 240 230 220 210 195

 Exports 278 140 140 140 145 150 160 170 180 190 200 210

 Total use 484 450 435 420 420 420 415 410 410 410 410 405

 Ending stocks 53 68 68 68 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 11.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.2 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.6

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35

 Loan rate 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 132 166 159 160 163 166 168 170 172 174 177 179

 Per bushel 1.77 2.64 2.48 2.50 2.55 2.59 2.62 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.80

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 171 73 65 61 54 46 40 41 42 40 38 35

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 35

Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

 Harvested acres 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 60.4 63.6 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 70.4 71.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 69 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81

 Production 212 239 230 230 235 235 240 240 240 245 245 250

 Imports 32 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

 Supply 312 333 323 323 327 331 335 339 342 345 348 356

 Feed & residual 34 80 70 70 70 75 75 75 80 80 80 85

 Food, seed, & industrial 168 160 160 161 161 161 161 162 162 162 162 163

 Domestic 203 240 230 231 231 236 236 237 242 242 242 248

 Exports 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

 Total use 244 265 255 256 256 261 261 262 267 267 267 273

 Ending stocks 68 68 68 67 71 70 74 77 75 78 81 83

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 27.9 25.7 26.7 26.2 27.7 26.8 28.4 29.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 30.4

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 4.02 5.00 4.30 4.15 4.00 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95

 Loan rate 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 111 141 141 141 143 145 147 149 150 152 154 156

 Per bushel 1.84 2.22 2.15 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 132 177 141 134 124 118 115 119 123 123 124 124

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley. 
36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 3.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

 Harvested acres 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 60.9 63.5 63.5 63.9 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 51 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60

 Production 92 89 95 95 95 95 100 100 100 100 100 100

 Imports 123 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 Supply 265 260 257 259 260 261 262 262 262 262 261 260

 Feed & residual 121 120 115 115 115 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

 Food, seed, & industrial 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78

 Domestic 196 195 190 191 191 196 197 197 197 198 198 198

 Exports 333333333333

 Total use 199 198 193 194 194 199 200 200 200 201 201 201

 Ending stocks 67 62 64 65 66 62 62 62 62 61 60 59

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 33.7 31.3 33.2 33.5 34.0 31.2 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.3 29.9 29.4

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 2.63 2.90 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35

 Loan rate 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 82 106 107 107 109 110 112 113 114 116 118 119

 Per bushel 1.34 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.76 1.77 1.79

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 78 78 52 50 45 42 38 40 40 39 39 38

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 37

Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 60.4 63.0 60.5 60.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 60.0 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.5

 Harvested acres 51.0 55.7 51.4 51.4 51.9 51.4 51.0 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6

Yields (bushels per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 40.5 44.9 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.7

Supply and use (million bushels):

 Beginning stocks 456 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611

 Production 2,067 2,500 2,210 2,225 2,265 2,255 2,255 2,270 2,265 2,280 2,295 2,310

 Imports 113 100 100 105 105 110 110 115 115 120 120 125

 Supply 2,635 2,905 2,913 2,946 2,990 3,005 3,012 3,030 3,020 3,021 3,028 3,046

 Food 948 960 965 974 983 992 1,001 1,010 1,019 1,028 1,037 1,046

 Seed 88 82 82 82 82 81 81 80 80 80 80 80

 Feed & residual 30 260 250 245 235 235 235 225 225 225 225 225

 Domestic 1,066 1,302 1,297 1,301 1,300 1,308 1,317 1,315 1,324 1,333 1,342 1,351

 Exports 1,264 1,000 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075 1,075

 Total use 2,330 2,302 2,297 2,326 2,350 2,358 2,367 2,390 2,399 2,408 2,417 2,426

 Ending stocks 306 603 616 620 640 647 645 640 621 613 611 620

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.1 26.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.6

Prices (dollars per bushel):

 Farm price 6.48 6.85 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.35 5.30 5.40 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45

 Loan rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 97 133 141 125 127 129 130 132 134 135 137 139

 Per bushel 2.39 2.97 3.28 2.89 2.91 2.93 2.95 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.02 3.04

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 166 185 111 118 113 106 104 108 111 110 110 110

Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat. 
38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Soybeans

Area (million acres):

 Planted 64.7 75.9 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.5 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0

 Harvested 64.1 74.4 73.0 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1 70.1

Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 41.7 39.3 42.6 43.0 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.2 45.6 46.1 46.5

Supply (million bushels)

 Beginning stocks, September 1 574 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237

 Production 2,676 2,921 3,110 3,100 3,095 3,100 3,130 3,140 3,170 3,195 3,230 3,260

 Imports 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

 Total supply 3,260 3,133 3,320 3,362 3,361 3,351 3,370 3,380 3,404 3,432 3,470 3,502

Disposition (million bushels)

 Crush 1,801 1,745 1,720 1,735 1,750 1,770 1,790 1,810 1,830 1,850 1,875 1,895

 Seed and residual 92 162 168 166 165 166 166 166 167 167 168 169

 Exports 1,161 1,020 1,175 1,200 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,175 1,175 1,180 1,190 1,200

 Total disposition 3,055 2,928 3,063 3,101 3,115 3,116 3,136 3,151 3,172 3,197 3,233 3,264

Carryover stocks, August 31

 Total ending stocks 205 205 257 261 246 235 235 229 232 235 237 238

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3

Prices (dollars per bushel)

 Loan rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00

 Soybean price, farm 10.10 9.85 8.85 8.75 8.75 8.70 8.60 8.70 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.80

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 105 130 132 132 134 135 136 138 139 140 141 143

 Per bushel 2.51 3.32 3.10 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07 3.07

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 316 257 245 244 247 247 245 252 257 259 262 266

Soybean oil (million pounds)

 Beginning stocks, October 1 3,085 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881

 Production 20,568 19,895 19,610 19,795 19,985 20,230 20,480 20,725 20,970 21,220 21,525 21,775

 Imports 65 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

 Total supply 23,718 22,416 21,686 21,651 21,866 22,136 22,466 22,751 23,041 23,291 23,581 23,806

 Domestic disappearance 18,272 18,100 18,000 18,100 18,350 18,550 18,750 18,950 19,150 19,375 19,600 19,850

 For methyl ester1 2,983 3,100 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300

 Exports 2,975 2,300 1,900 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,850 1,950 2,000 2,100 2,100

 Total demand 21,247 20,400 19,900 19,850 20,050 20,250 20,550 20,800 21,100 21,375 21,700 21,950

 Ending stocks, September 30 2,471 2,016 1,786 1,801 1,816 1,886 1,916 1,951 1,941 1,916 1,881 1,856

 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.520 0.395 0.350 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345 0.345

Soybean meal (thousand short tons)

 Beginning stocks, October 1 346 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Production 42,242 41,491 40,935 41,235 41,635 42,085 42,585 43,085 43,585 44,085 44,585 45,085

 Imports 140 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165

 Total supply 42,728 41,950 41,400 41,700 42,100 42,550 43,050 43,550 44,050 44,550 45,050 45,550

 Domestic disappearance 33,234 33,050 32,700 32,900 33,100 33,500 34,000 34,500 35,000 35,500 36,000 36,500

 Exports 9,200 8,600 8,400 8,500 8,700 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750

 Total demand 42,434 41,650 41,100 41,400 41,800 42,250 42,750 43,250 43,750 44,250 44,750 45,250

 Ending stocks, September 30 294 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 335.94 285.00 260.00 255.00 252.50 251.00 246.00 249.00 250.50 250.50 250.50 252.00

 Crushing yields (pounds per bushel)

 Soybean oil 11.42 11.40 11.40 11.41 11.42 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49

 Soybean meal 46.90 47.56 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60 47.60

 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 3.72 1.43 1.33 1.26 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16

Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel, history 

from the U.S. Department of Commerce. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 39

Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (thousand acres):

 Planted 2,940 3,000 2,761 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,050 3,050 3,050 3,100 3,100 3,100 

 Harvested 2,924 2,984 2,748 2,984 2,984 2,984 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,083 3,083 3,083 

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 7,185 6,959 7,138 7,209 7,281 7,353 7,414 7,481 7,548 7,603 7,664 7,725 

Supply and use (million hundredweight):

 Beginning stocks 39.3 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3

 Production 197.5 203.5 213.0 215.1 217.3 219.4 224.9 227.0 229.0 234.4 236.3 238.2

 Imports 23.9 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.8 36.0

 Total supply 260.7 258.4 264.8 270.3 274.6 277.6 283.0 287.7 291.4 297.6 302.3 305.4

 Domestic use and residual 123.3 126.0 127.9 129.8 131.7 133.7 135.7 137.7 139.8 141.9 144.0 146.2

 Exports 107.9 107.0 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.0

 Total use 231.2 233.0 236.9 241.3 245.7 249.7 253.7 257.7 261.8 266.4 271.0 275.2

 Ending stocks 29.4 25.4 27.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 29.3 30.0 29.6 31.2 31.3 30.2

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 12.7 10.9 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.7 11.5 11.0

Milling rate, percent 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5

Prices (dollars per hundredweight):

 World price 11.53 13.50 11.00 10.00 9.50 9.25 9.50 9.78 10.02 10.27 10.53 10.79

 Average market price 12.80 15.00 12.50 11.45 10.90 10.60 10.80 11.03 11.27 11.52 11.78 12.04

 Loan rate 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 414 511 497 499 507 514 520 527 533 540 547 554

 Per hundredweight 5.76 7.35 6.96 6.93 6.97 6.99 7.02 7.04 7.06 7.10 7.13 7.17

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns 506 532 396 326 286 265 280 299 318 336 356 377

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for rice. 
40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Area (million acres):

 Planted acres 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3

 Harvested acres 10.2 7.6 7.6 7.9 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3

Yields (pounds per acre):

 Yield/harvested acre 864 827 850 865 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950

Supply and use (thousand bales):

 Beginning stocks 9,338 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302

 Production 18,355 13,069 13,500 14,200 15,800 16,100 16,500 16,900 17,300 17,600 18,000 18,400

 Imports 6 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

 Supply 27,699 22,979 19,647 18,732 19,767 20,652 21,287 21,872 22,407 22,792 23,227 23,712

 Domestic use 4,573 4,365 4,315 4,265 4,215 4,165 4,115 4,065 4,015 3,965 3,915 3,865

 Exports 12,820 12,500 10,800 10,500 11,000 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,600 14,000 14,400

 Total use 17,393 16,865 15,115 14,765 15,215 15,865 16,315 16,765 17,215 17,565 17,915 18,265

 Ending stocks 9,905 6,137 4,522 3,957 4,542 4,777 4,962 5,097 5,182 5,217 5,302 5,437

 Stocks/use ratio, percent 56.9 36.4 29.9 26.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8

Prices (dollars per pound):

 Farm price 0.593 0.500 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.605 0.610 0.615 0.620 0.625 0.630 0.635

 Loan rate 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

Variable costs of production (dollars):

 Per acre 421 491 493 498 507 514 522 530 538 546 555 564

 Per pound 0.49 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

 Net returns1 205 150 152 151 170 174 178 183 188 193 198 203

Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.

1/ Net returns include estimates of marketing loan benefits.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 41

Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections

Item Units 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Sugarbeets

 Planted area 1,000 acres 1,269 1,080 1,408 1,306 1,261 1,301 1,311 1,310 1,297 1,287 1,296 1,300

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,247 1,053 1,356 1,264 1,227 1,264 1,273 1,267 1,249 1,239 1,248 1,252

 Yield Tons/acre 25.6 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 

 Production Mil. s. tons 31.9 28.0 35.2 32.5 31.5 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.5 32.4 32.8 33.0 

Sugarcane

 Harvested area 1,000 acres 832 830 843 840 840 832 840 850 839 833 836 838

 Yield Tons/acre 35.1 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.9 35.0 35.1 

 Production Mil. s. tons 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 

Supply:

 Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,799 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776

 Production 1,000 s. tons 8,150 7,681 9,139 8,794 8,701 8,894 9,032 9,113 9,066 9,076 9,205 9,308

 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,721 4,225 5,405 5,026 4,907 5,103 5,183 5,198 5,171 5,175 5,259 5,323

 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,429 3,456 3,734 3,768 3,794 3,792 3,849 3,916 3,895 3,902 3,946 3,986

 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 2,456 2,496 2,839 2,365 2,807 2,753 3,238 3,312 3,237 3,187 3,133 3,085

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,352 1,511 1,357 1,359 1,361 1,367 1,369 1,372 1,374 1,379 1,382 1,384

Other imports 1,000 s. tons 1,104 985 1,483 1,006 1,446 1,386 1,869 1,940 1,863 1,808 1,751 1,700

 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,405 11,867 12,886 12,805 12,933 13,183 13,973 14,230 14,094 14,015 14,085 14,169

Use:

 Exports 1,000 s. tons 203 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 10,781 10,710 10,990 11,130 11,148 11,230 11,308 11,376 11,433 11,477 11,519 11,558

 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -269 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Total use 1,000 s. tons 10,715 10,960 11,240 11,380 11,398 11,480 11,558 11,626 11,683 11,727 11,769 11,808

CCC surplus disbursements 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 609 815 660 541 540 544

Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,690 907 1,646 1,425 1,535 1,703 1,805 1,790 1,751 1,746 1,776 1,817

Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 23.34 25.66 23.67 22.67 22.15 21.53 21.32 21.31 21.30 21.30 21.30 21.29

Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.00 18.00 18.25 18.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75

Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 22.90 23.13 23.45 23.77 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09

Grower prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 39.70 46.83 41.33 38.91 39.27 38.14 37.36 37.24 37.31 37.38 37.45 37.52

Sugarcane Dol./ton 29.25 31.35 31.77 31.13 30.82 30.48 30.39 30.48 30.60 30.73 30.85 30.96

CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years

Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production area1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 10,928 10,707 10,906 10,917 10,955 10,994 11,035 11,076 11,120 11,165 11,211 11,259

Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 3,908 3,897 3,895 3,894 3,893 3,893 3,893 3,894 3,894 3,896 3,898 3,900

Vegetables and melons 1,000 acres 7,020 6,810 7,011 7,023 7,061 7,101 7,141 7,183 7,225 7,269 7,313 7,359

Supply

Production, farm weight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 59,047 64,369 64,249 64,142 64,043 63,954 63,875 63,804 63,743 63,691 63,648 63,614

Citrus Mil. lbs. 20,934 25,994 25,604 25,220 24,842 24,469 24,102 23,741 23,384 23,034 22,688 22,348

Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 34,129 34,300 34,471 34,643 34,817 34,991 35,166 35,342 35,518 35,696 35,874 36,054

Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 3,984 4,076 4,174 4,278 4,385 4,495 4,607 4,722 4,840 4,961 5,085 5,212

Vegetables and melons Mil. lbs. 141,158 135,778 136,562 137,858 138,712 139,576 140,451 141,337 142,233 143,140 144,059 144,988

Fresh market2 Mil. lbs. 60,700 59,950 59,659 60,358 61,066 61,784 62,510 63,247 63,992 64,748 65,513 66,288

Processing3 Mil. lbs. 35,777 34,774 34,370 34,542 34,473 34,404 34,335 34,267 34,198 34,130 34,062 33,994

Potatoes Mil. lbs. 44,681 41,055 42,532 42,958 43,173 43,388 43,605 43,823 44,043 44,263 44,484 44,706

Pulses4 Mil. lbs. 4,535 4,550 4,641 4,734 4,828 4,925 5,024 5,124 5,227 5,331 5,438 5,546

Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 200,470 200,412 201,074 202,263 203,018 203,793 204,588 205,403 206,238 207,093 207,968 208,864

Imports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 41,597 42,197 42,719 43,734 45,137 46,586 48,082 49,628 51,225 52,874 54,578 56,337

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 20,928 20,568 20,780 21,204 21,780 22,372 22,980 23,604 24,246 24,905 25,581 26,277

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 18,456 19,196 19,446 19,932 20,649 21,393 22,163 22,961 23,787 24,644 25,531 26,450

Use

Exports

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 20,019 23,034 23,800 24,197 24,602 25,014 25,435 25,865 26,303 26,749 27,205 27,670

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 7,817 9,238 9,553 9,689 9,827 9,968 10,111 10,257 10,406 10,558 10,713 10,871

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 10,552 11,927 12,285 12,481 12,681 12,884 13,090 13,299 13,512 13,728 13,948 14,171

Domestic use5

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 222,048 219,575 219,993 221,800 223,554 225,365 227,235 229,167 231,160 233,217 235,341 237,531

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 72,159 75,699 75,476 75,657 75,997 76,359 76,744 77,151 77,582 78,037 78,516 79,020

Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 149,062 143,048 143,723 145,309 146,681 148,085 149,524 150,998 152,508 154,056 155,642 157,267

Farm sales value6

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 17,765 18,449 18,922 19,409 19,909 20,424 20,954 21,498 22,059 22,636 23,229 23,839

Citrus $ Mil. 2,292 2,304 2,315 2,327 2,338 2,350 2,362 2,374 2,385 2,397 2,409 2,421

Noncitrus $ Mil. 11,502 12,032 12,345 12,667 12,997 13,335 13,682 14,038 14,404 14,779 15,164 15,559

Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,971 4,114 4,262 4,415 4,574 4,739 4,910 5,086 5,270 5,459 5,656 5,859

Vegetables and melons $ Mil. 20,865 21,878 22,313 22,759 23,213 23,676 24,149 24,631 25,123 25,626 26,138 26,661

Fresh market2 $ Mil. 6,640 6,739 6,995 7,149 7,306 7,467 7,631 7,799 7,971 8,146 8,325 8,509

Processing3 $ Mil. 2,592 2,833 3,032 3,086 3,142 3,198 3,256 3,314 3,374 3,435 3,497 3,560

Potatoes $ Mil. 2,960 3,233 3,039 3,096 3,155 3,215 3,276 3,339 3,402 3,467 3,533 3,600

Pulses4 $ Mil. 878 966 898 923 948 973 999 1,026 1,054 1,083 1,112 1,142

Nursery and greenhouse7 $ Mil. 17,179 17,453 17,733 18,016 18,305 18,597 18,895 19,197 19,505 19,817 20,134 20,456

Total horticulture crops8 $ Mil. 56,387 58,362 59,553 60,771 62,017 63,291 64,593 65,926 67,289 68,683 70,109 71,567

Producer prices9

Fruit and tree nuts 2000=100 181.1 172.6 177.3 182.2 187.2 192.3 197.5 202.9 208.4 214.0 219.7 225.6

Citrus 2000=100 150.4 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 134.6 137.3 140.1 143.0 145.9 148.8

Noncitrus 2000=100 152.2 158.4 161.7 165.1 168.6 172.1 175.7 179.4 183.1 187.0 190.9 194.9

Tree nuts 2000=100 144.7 146.5 148.2 149.8 151.4 153.1 154.7 156.4 158.1 159.7 161.5 163.2

Vegetables and melons 2000=100 128.6 140.1 142.1 143.6 145.5 147.5 149.5 151.6 153.6 155.7 157.8 159.9

Fresh market 2000=100 110.1 113.1 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.2

Processing 2000=100 120.5 135.5 146.7 148.6 151.5 154.6 157.7 160.8 164.1 167.3 170.7 174.1

Potatoes 2000=100 147.8 175.7 159.4 160.8 163.1 165.3 167.6 170.0 172.4 174.8 177.2 179.7

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 2000=100 145.7 152.1 155.0 157.6 160.6 163.6 166.6 169.8 172.9 176.2 179.4 182.8

1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables. 2/ Includes melons, sweet potatoes, fresh mushrooms, and California specialty vegetables. 3/ Major 

processing vegetables and agaricus mushrooms. 4/ Includes edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. 5/ Calculated by adding farm weight production to 

imports, then subtracting exports. Stocks are not accounted for. 6/ Farm cash receipts except for major fresh market and processing vegetables, which are from 

production values. 7/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and colored peppers, and fruit/vegetable transplants. 8/ Includes 

honey, maple syrup, hops, mint oils, and coffee. 9/ Based on cash receipts of U.S. farmers relative to their farm weight production.

Data source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 43

Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years

Item Unit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 3,010 3,574 3,999 4,093 4,189 4,287 4,388 4,491 4,596 4,703 4,813 4,925

 Citrus $ Mil. 668 856 1,194 1,199 1,202 1,205 1,207 1,208 1,208 1,207 1,205 1,202

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 2,342 2,718 2,805 2,894 2,987 3,083 3,181 3,283 3,388 3,497 3,608 3,724

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,013 2,355 2,414 2,474 2,536 2,599 2,664 2,731 2,799 2,869 2,941 3,014

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,022 1,157 1,187 1,218 1,249 1,282 1,315 1,349 1,384 1,420 1,457 1,495

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,025 3,487 3,600 3,726 3,856 3,991 4,131 4,276 4,425 4,580 4,741 4,906

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 8,048 9,415 10,013 10,293 10,581 10,878 11,183 11,497 11,820 12,153 12,494 12,846

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 1,775 1,941 2,001 2,063 2,127 2,193 2,261 2,331 2,403 2,478 2,555 2,634

 Processed1 $ Mil. 2,387 3,015 3,093 3,174 3,256 3,341 3,428 3,517 3,608 3,702 3,798 3,897

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 4,162 4,956 5,094 5,237 5,383 5,534 5,689 5,848 6,012 6,180 6,353 6,531

 Other horticulture

 Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 357 373 381 389 398 406 414 423 432 441 450 460

 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,142 1,278 1,318 1,359 1,401 1,444 1,489 1,535 1,583 1,632 1,682 1,734

 Wine $ Mil. 906 966 1,005 1,045 1,087 1,130 1,175 1,222 1,271 1,322 1,375 1,430

 Beer $ Mil. 232 266 267 268 270 271 272 274 275 277 278 279

 Other2 $ Mil. 3,173 3,541 3,422 3,549 3,680 3,816 3,958 4,104 4,256 4,413 4,577 4,746

Total horticulture $ Mil. 18,020 20,795 21,500 22,140 22,799 23,479 24,180 24,903 25,649 26,417 27,209 28,027

Fresh3 $ Mil. 4,786 5,515 6,000 6,156 6,316 6,480 6,649 6,822 6,999 7,181 7,368 7,559

Processed3 $ Mil. 4,399 5,370 5,600 5,734 5,872 6,013 6,157 6,305 6,456 6,611 6,770 6,932

Export share of production4 Percent 32 36 36 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 39

Imports

 Fruit and nuts

 Fresh fruits $ Mil. 5,401 5,544 5,600 5,824 6,057 6,299 6,551 6,813 7,086 7,369 7,664 7,971

 Citrus $ Mil. 499 417 288 321 356 393 432 474 518 565 615 668

 Noncitrus $ Mil. 4,903 5,127 5,312 5,503 5,701 5,906 6,119 6,339 6,567 6,804 7,049 7,303

 Processed fruits $ Mil. 3,416 3,984 4,400 4,572 4,750 4,935 5,128 5,328 5,535 5,751 5,976 6,209

 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,616 1,935 2,000 2,074 2,151 2,230 2,313 2,398 2,487 2,579 2,675 2,774

 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,078 1,277 1,400 1,457 1,517 1,579 1,644 1,712 1,782 1,855 1,931 2,010

 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 9,896 10,805 11,400 11,853 12,324 12,814 13,323 13,852 14,403 14,975 15,570 16,189

 Vegetables

 Fresh $ Mil. 4,165 4,442 4,500 4,698 4,905 5,121 5,346 5,581 5,827 6,083 6,351 6,630

 Processed1 $ Mil. 3,149 3,520 3,700 3,841 3,987 4,138 4,295 4,458 4,628 4,804 4,986 5,176

 Total vegetables $ Mil. 7,314 7,962 8,200 8,539 8,891 9,259 9,641 10,040 10,455 10,887 11,337 11,806

 Other horticulture

 Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,531 1,514 1,500 1,541 1,582 1,625 1,669 1,714 1,760 1,808 1,856 1,906

 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,431 2,653 2,800 2,864 2,930 2,998 3,067 3,137 3,209 3,283 3,359 3,436

 Wine $ Mil. 4,543 4,755 4,800 4,987 5,182 5,384 5,594 5,812 6,039 6,274 6,519 6,773

 Beer $ Mil. 3,686 3,662 3,600 3,701 3,804 3,911 4,020 4,133 4,249 4,368 4,490 4,616

 Other2 $ Mil. 2,985 3,360 3,494 3,634 3,779 3,931 4,088 4,251 4,421 4,598 4,782 4,974

Total horticulture $ Mil. 32,386 34,712 35,794 37,119 38,493 39,920 41,401 42,939 44,535 46,193 47,913 49,700

Fresh3 $ Mil. 9,567 9,986 10,100 10,522 10,962 11,420 11,897 12,394 12,912 13,452 14,015 14,601

Processed3 $ Mil. 6,565 7,505 8,100 8,412 8,736 9,073 9,423 9,786 10,163 10,555 10,962 11,384

Import share of domestic use4 Percent 46 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 54

1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, starches, etc. that contain horticulture 

ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. 4/ Percent shares are based on values.

Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry.

Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
44 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Livestock 

Production adjustments in response to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2007 and 2008 

continue to ripple through the livestock sector in the first several years of the projections. 

Additionally, demand is somewhat weakened due to the domestic recession and global economic 

slowdown. Thus, with producer returns squeezed in 2008 and rebounding only slightly over the 

next few years, total U.S. meat and poultry production declines through 2011. These production 

adjustments combine with strengthening meat exports to reduce domestic per capita consumption 

through 2012. The result is lower production at higher prices, with improving net returns 

providing economic incentives for moderate expansion in the sector toward the end of the 

projection period. 

Production of all meats declines in 2009 and 2010 in response to higher feed costs. 

 

 Higher grain prices as well as effects of drought on pasture conditions in recent years hold 

down cattle inventories, pushing U.S. beef production down in 2009-12. Production then 

rises in the remainder of the projection period as returns improve and herds are rebuilt. The 

total cattle inventory drops below 94 million head before expanding to about 97 million at 

the end of the projection period. Rising slaughter weights also contribute to the moderate 

expansion of beef production beyond 2012. Continued high feed costs will result in stocker 

cattle remaining on pasture to heavier weights before entering feedlots. 

 Pork production declines in 2009-11 in response to high feed prices and then grows for the 

remainder of the projections as higher hog prices improve returns. Production coordination 

and market integration between the United States and Canada continue in the hog sector. 

Canada is the major supplier of live swine imported by the United States. 

 Poultry production declines in 2009-10 while adjusting to high feed costs, but then rises the 

most among the meats through the rest of the projection period, reflecting poultry being the 

most efficient feed converter. 

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. red meat and poultry production

Billion pounds

Beef

Pork

Broilers
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 45

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. per capita meat consumption

Pounds per capita, retail weight 

Beef

Broilers

Pork

Livestock sector production adjustments to higher feed costs, as well as gains in meat and poultry 

exports, result in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption. Annual per capita 

consumption of red meats and poultry falls from 221 pounds in 2007 to less than 210 pounds in 

2011 and 2012. Following the sector’s production adjustments to lower levels, per capita 

consumption of red meats and poultry then resumes growth, to 217 pounds in 2018. 

 Per capita beef consumption declines through the first half of the projection period, 

reflecting production adjustments in the industry to higher feed costs, before rebounding 

somewhat over the last several years of the projections. U.S. beef exports rise through the 

projection period, further limiting domestic per capita beef consumption. A gradual 

rebuilding of U.S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea is assumed. Demand for U.S. 

beef in export markets is primarily for high-quality beef. 

 Higher feed costs lead to reductions in pork production, which combine with rising pork 

exports to push per capita pork consumption down through 2012. A gradual rebound in per 

capita pork consumption occurs over the remainder of the projection period as production 

gains strengthen. 

 Due partly to higher feed conversion rates, poultry meat prices remain lower than red meat 

prices. Nonetheless, as returns are squeezed, lower production raises prices and results in 

per capita consumption declines in 2009-11. Following these adjustments, producer returns 

improve, production strengthens, and prices moderate. Consequently, per capita 

consumption grows slowly through the end of the projection period. 
46 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nominal U.S. livestock prices

Dollars per hundredweight

Beef cattle: Choice steers, Nebraska

Broilers: 12-city 

market price

Hogs: National base

Increasing livestock prices over the first half of the projection period result from lower production 

as the sector adjusts to higher feed costs. Once the production adjustments have occurred, prices 

level off at a new higher plane. 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Poultry

 Pork

 Beef

U.S. spending on meat

Percent of income

Even with higher meat prices and near term recession in the United States, rising U.S. incomes 

over most of the next decade facilitate gains in consumer spending on meat. Continuing a 

long-term trend, overall meat expenditures represent a declining proportion of disposable income. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 47

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Beef

Pork

Poultry

U.S. meat exports

Billion pounds

Although the domestic market remains the dominant source of total meat demand, exports account for 

a growing share of U.S. meat use. The near-term economic slowdown and higher meat prices reduce 

overall U.S. meat and poultry exports in 2009 and 2010. Exports rise through the rest of the projection 

period as global economic growth resumes and the U.S. dollar remains relatively weak. 

 U.S. beef exports primarily reflect demand for high-quality fed beef, with most U.S. beef exports 

typically going to Mexico, Canada, and markets in Pacific Rim nations. A gradual recovery in U.S. 

beef exports to Japan and South Korea is assumed, export markets that were lost following the first 

U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in December 2003. 

 U.S. imports of processing beef from Australia and New Zealand increase in the projection period. 

With more beef demand in East Asian markets being met by the United States, exports from 

Australia and New Zealand to those markets are reduced, resulting in more of their product 

redirected to the United States. 

 Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. pork exports. 

Brazil is also a major pork exporter. However, no changes in the set of countries recognizing 

Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are assumed, thus limiting Brazilian pork 

producers’ ability to compete in some markets. Consequently, Brazil’s pork exports expand to 

markets such as Russia, Argentina, and Asian markets other than Japan and South Korea. 

 Despite higher feed costs, increased efficiency in U.S. pork production enhances the 

competitiveness of U.S. pork products. Nonetheless, longer term gains in U.S. pork exports will be 

determined by costs of production and environmental regulations relative to competitors. 

Production costs tend to be lower in countries that are developing integrated pork industries, such 

as Brazil. 

 After declining in 2009 and 2010, U.S. broiler exports rise through the rest of the projection period. 

Major U.S. export markets include China, Russia, and Mexico. Longer term gains in these markets 

reflect their economic growth and increasing consumer demand. Demand for poultry also remains 

strong due to its lower cost relative to beef and pork. U.S. producers continue to face strong 

competition from other major exporters, particularly Brazil. For most of the projection period, 

exports from avian influenza-affected countries are expected to be limited to fully cooked products. 
48 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

8

9

10

11

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

10

15

20

25

U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow

Million cows

Milk cows

Output per cow

1,000 pounds per cow

Despite higher feed costs, strong farm-level milk prices in 2007 encouraged milk producers to 

increase cow numbers in 2008. Combined with an upward trend in output per cow, milk 

production rose relatively strongly. Milk production is projected to continue rising over the 

projection period, although at a slower pace than in the past several years. 

 Milk cow numbers are expected to resume a more typical path of year-to-year declines 

after 2008. However, annual reductions are more moderate compared with past decades as 

increasing specialization of dairy farms over time slows exit rates from milk production. 

 Milk output per cow is projected to increase, although some slowing in these gains occurs 

in 2008-10 in response to higher feed costs. Nonetheless, further development of 

specialized operations in most regions will contribute to a continuation of gains in output 

per cow. 

 Domestic commercial use of dairy products increases somewhat faster than the growth in 

U.S. population over most of the next decade. Cheese demand benefits from greater 

consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. However, per 

capita consumption of fluid milk is expected to continue to decline slowly. 

 U.S. exports of dairy products decline from the levels reached in 2008, but remain high by 

historical standards. Global demand for dairy products has grown as incomes in 

developing countries have risen. Exports on a skim-solids basis fall less than fat basis 

exports due to commercial sales of non-fat dry milk. 

 Farm-level milk prices fall from the high levels of 2007 and 2008, partly reflecting the 

reduction in U.S. dairy product exports from the 2008 peak. Milk prices rise over the latter 

part of the projection period, although increases are less than the general inflation rate 

largely due to efficiency gains in production. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 49

Table 19. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight

Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pounds

 Total beef 65.2 63.0 62.4 61.0 59.7 58.2 57.5 56.9 57.0 57.5 58.3 58.9

 Total veal 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Total pork 50.8 48.7 49.0 48.3 46.9 46.8 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.5

 Lamb and mutton 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Total red meat 117.6 113.2 112.9 110.7 108.0 106.4 106.0 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.0 108.6

 Broilers 85.1 84.8 84.2 83.7 83.2 84.7 85.6 86.6 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.4

 Other chicken 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

 Turkeys 17.5 18.0 17.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7

 Total poultry 103.7 104.3 103.2 102.3 101.7 103.2 104.2 105.3 106.3 107.2 107.8 108.4

Red meat & poultry 221.3 217.5 216.1 213.1 209.7 209.6 210.2 211.2 213.0 214.4 215.9 217.0

Table 20. Consumer expenditures for meats

Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beef, dollars per person 271.27 269.57 274.97 283.92 291.23 295.38 298.28 300.54 300.91 302.18 303.91 306.27

 Percent of income 0.81 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.61

 Percent of meat expenditures 46.96 46.39 46.18 46.26 46.13 45.88 45.72 45.55 45.42 45.46 45.51 45.50

 Pork, dollars per person 145.73 142.15 147.43 150.19 153.02 156.12 158.37 160.49 161.75 162.80 163.67 164.77

 Percent of income 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33

 Percent of meat expenditures 25.23 24.46 24.76 24.47 24.24 24.25 24.28 24.32 24.42 24.49 24.51 24.48

 Broilers, dollars per person 140.43 147.29 150.51 157.21 164.47 169.77 173.38 176.84 178.29 178.93 179.98 182.60

 Percent of income 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.36

 Percent of meat expenditures 24.31 25.35 25.28 25.61 26.05 26.37 26.58 26.80 26.91 26.92 26.95 27.12

 Turkeys, dollars per person 20.18 22.12 22.46 22.47 22.65 22.61 22.32 22.01 21.49 20.86 20.16 19.54

 Percent of income 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04

 Percent of meat expenditures 3.49 3.81 3.77 3.66 3.59 3.51 3.42 3.34 3.24 3.14 3.02 2.90

 Total meat, dollars per person 577.60 581.14 595.37 613.80 631.37 643.88 652.35 659.88 662.44 664.78 667.72 673.18

 Percent of income 1.72 1.69 1.71 1.69 1.67 1.64 1.59 1.55 1.49 1.44 1.38 1.34
50 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 21. Beef long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 630 630 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595

 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 26,421 26,699 26,650 26,364 26,107 25,763 25,794 25,828 26,191 26,761 27,395 27,952 

 Change from previous year Percent 1.0 1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.1 0.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.0

 Farm production Mil. lbs. 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 

 Total production Mil. lbs. 26,523 26,801 26,752 26,466 26,209 25,865 25,896 25,930 26,293 26,863 27,497 28,054 

 Imports Mil. lbs. 3,052 2,443 2,595 2,663 2,740 2,812 2,884 2,957 3,030 3,103 3,150 3,195 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 30,205 29,874 29,942 29,724 29,544 29,272 29,375 29,482 29,918 30,561 31,242 31,844 

 Exports Mil. lbs. 1,434 1,841 1,920 2,075 2,231 2,389 2,547 2,707 2,867 3,029 3,111 3,194 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 630 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595

 Total consumption Mil. lbs. 28,141 27,438 27,427 27,054 26,718 26,288 26,233 26,180 26,456 26,937 27,536 28,055 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 93.2 90.0 89.1 87.1 85.2 83.1 82.2 81.3 81.4 82.2 83.3 84.1

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 65.2 63.0 62.4 61.0 59.7 58.2 57.5 56.9 57.0 57.5 58.3 58.9

 Change from previous year Percent -0.9 -3.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -1.1 -1.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0

Prices:

 Beef cattle, farm $/cwt 90.02 90.81 94.27 94.95 99.91 103.82 105.50 107.60 107.19 106.74 105.85 105.52

 Calves, farm $/cwt 122.25 116.25 122.43 119.72 129.87 137.91 141.81 145.93 144.32 142.62 140.64 139.70

 Choice steers, Nebraska $/cwt 91.82 93.22 96.75 97.44 102.54 106.55 108.28 110.43 110.01 109.55 108.64 108.31

Yearling steers, Oklahoma City $/cwt 108.23 104.82 110.25 107.81 116.95 124.19 127.70 131.41 129.96 128.43 126.65 125.80

Costs and returns, cow-calf enterprise:

 Variable expenses $/cow 275.80 333.23 339.06 327.46 327.03 330.23 333.42 337.08 343.57 350.01 355.52 361.17

 Fixed expenses $/cow 173.16 189.75 196.62 204.71 207.58 211.54 219.45 227.58 233.29 238.87 244.72 250.58

 Total cash expenses $/cow 448.97 522.97 535.69 532.17 534.61 541.77 552.86 564.66 576.86 588.88 600.24 611.75

 Returns above cash costs $/cow 94.03 11.44 32.11 33.37 87.74 129.66 147.78 167.00 156.95 146.40 134.85 128.67

Cattle inventory 1,000 head 97,003 96,669 96,200 95,600 94,055 93,241 93,073 93,652 94,524 95,787 96,847 97,448

Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 32,891 32,553 31,855 31,480 30,982 30,930 31,096 31,697 32,245 32,983 33,570 33,905

Total cow inventory 1,000 head 42,023 41,777 41,000 41,200 40,132 40,050 40,188 40,753 41,258 41,947 42,477 42,770
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 51

Table 22. Pork long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 514 536 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 

 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 21,943 23,452 23,075 22,951 22,599 22,803 23,184 23,680 24,177 24,440 24,677 24,915 

 Change from previous year Percent 4.2 6.9 -1.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

 Farm production Mil. lbs. 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 

 Total production Mil. lbs. 21,962 23,471 23,094 22,970 22,618 22,822 23,203 23,699 24,196 24,459 24,696 24,934 

 Imports Mil. lbs. 968 832 850 950 1,000 1,025 1,050 1,075 1,100 1,125 1,150 1,175 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 23,444 24,839 24,584 24,560 24,258 24,487 24,893 25,414 25,936 26,224 26,486 26,749 

 Exports Mil. lbs. 3,141 5,068 4,500 4,590 4,682 4,775 4,871 4,968 5,068 5,138 5,208 5,278 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 536 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640

 Total consumption Mil. lbs. 19,767 19,131 19,444 19,330 18,936 19,072 19,382 20,228 19,806 20,446 20,638 20,831 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 65.4 62.7 63.2 62.2 60.4 60.3 60.7 61.5 62.2 62.4 62.4 62.4

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 50.8 48.7 49.0 48.3 46.9 46.8 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.5

 Change from previous year Percent 2.8 -4.1 0.7 -1.5 -2.9 -0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Prices:

 Hogs, farm $/cwt 46.66 47.29 49.26 52.36 57.19 59.05 59.42 59.02 58.31 58.88 59.54 60.31

 National base, live equivalent $/cwt 47.09 47.86 49.75 52.88 57.76 59.64 60.02 59.62 58.90 59.47 60.14 60.92

Costs and returns, farrow to finish:

 Variable expenses $/cwt 41.31 56.07 53.11 50.27 50.02 49.88 49.76 49.79 50.80 51.74 52.33 52.94

 Fixed expenses $/cwt 9.19 6.81 7.65 7.80 7.63 7.69 7.59 7.55 7.43 7.23 7.05 6.86

 Total cash expenses $/cwt 50.50 62.89 60.76 58.06 57.65 57.56 57.35 57.34 58.23 58.97 59.38 59.80

 Returns above cash costs $/cwt -0.61 -15.03 -11.01 -5.18 0.11 2.08 2.66 2.28 0.67 0.50 0.76 1.12

Hog inventory, 

 December 1, previous year 1,000 head 62,490 68,173 67,200 66,858 65,888 66,451 67,499 68,865 70,234 70,960 71,612 72,265

Table 23. Young chicken long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 732 719 700 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690

 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 36,126 37,142 36,740 36,344 36,561 37,467 38,204 38,957 39,692 40,366 40,981 41,566 

 Change from previous year Percent 1.8 2.8 -1.1 -1.1 0.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4

 Production Mil. lbs. 35,739 36,745 36,347 35,980 36,195 37,092 37,822 38,568 39,295 39,962 40,572 41,150 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 36,535 37,539 37,127 36,730 36,945 37,842 38,572 39,318 40,045 40,712 41,322 41,900 

 Change from previous year Percent 1.2 2.7 -1.1 -1.1 0.6 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4

 Exports Mil. lbs. 5,904 6,719 6,275 5,757 5,888 5,969 6,065 6,153 6,250 6,350 6,426 6,499 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 719 700 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 

 Consumption Mil. lbs. 29,912 30,120 30,162 30,283 30,367 31,183 31,817 32,475 33,105 33,672 34,206 34,711 

 Per capita, carcass weight Pounds 99.0 98.8 98.0 97.5 96.9 98.6 99.7 100.8 101.9 102.7 103.4 104.1 

 Per capita, retail weight Pounds 85.1 84.8 84.2 83.7 83.2 84.7 85.6 86.6 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.4

 Change from previous year Percent -1.8 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6

Prices:

 Broilers, farm Cents/lb. 44.3 47.4 50.1 52.0 54.1 54.9 55.5 56.1 56.1 56.0 56.1 56.7

 12-city market price Cents/lb. 76.4 79.8 84.5 87.6 91.1 92.5 93.6 94.5 94.5 94.4 94.5 95.5

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/lb. 70.87 81.76 80.31 78.98 79.16 79.47 79.87 80.32 81.50 82.67 84.13 85.61

 Net returns Cents/lb. 5.53 -1.96 4.19 8.65 11.93 13.03 13.69 14.17 13.03 11.72 10.39 9.87
52 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 24. Turkey long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 218 261 320 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285

 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 5,958 6,267 6,105 6,094 6,132 6,196 6,270 6,349 6,469 6,564 6,638 6,698 

 Change from previous year Percent 4.9 5.2 -2.6 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9

 Production Mil. lbs. 5,880 6,185 6,025 6,015 6,052 6,115 6,188 6,267 6,384 6,479 6,552 6,611 

 Total supply Mil. lbs. 6,108 6,457 6,357 6,312 6,349 6,412 6,485 6,564 6,681 6,776 6,849 6,908 

 Change from previous year Percent 4.8 5.7 -1.5 -0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9

 Exports Mil. lbs. 547 643 605 640 654 663 674 684 694 706 714 722 

 Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 261 320 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 

 Consumption Mil. lbs. 5,300 5,494 5,467 5,388 5,410 5,464 5,526 5,595 5,702 5,785 5,850 5,901 

 Per capita Pounds 17.5 18.0 17.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7

 Change from previous year Percent 3.7 2.7 -1.4 -2.4 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0

Prices:

 Turkey, farm Cents/lb. 52.0 57.5 58.9 62.3 64.9 66.6 67.2 67.7 66.9 66.0 65.0 64.5 

 Hen turkey (wholesale) East Cents/lb. 82.1 89.0 91.3 96.5 100.7 103.2 104.2 105.0 103.7 102.3 100.8 100.0 

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/lb. 68.47 80.28 79.13 76.63 76.56 76.62 76.73 76.86 77.88 78.80 78.41 78.00

 Net returns Cents/lb. 13.63 8.72 12.17 19.87 24.10 26.55 27.47 28.12 25.86 23.51 22.41 21.95

Table 25. Egg long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

 Beginning stocks Mil. doz. 13 11 16 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 

 Production Mil. doz. 7,547 7,514 7,540 7,578 7,631 7,707 7,792 7,878 7,964 8,052 8,140 8,230 

 Change from previous year Percent -0.8 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Imports Mil. doz. 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 

 Total supply Mil. doz. 7,573 7,540 7,570 7,605 7,658 7,734 7,819 7,905 7,991 8,079 8,167 8,257 

 Change from previous year Percent -0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Hatching use Mil. doz. 1,015 1,000 1,016 1,008 1,009 1,022 1,038 1,053 1,067 1,081 1,093 1,104 

 Exports Mil. doz. 250 205 221 224 227 230 233 236 239 242 245 248

 Ending stocks Mil. doz. 11 16 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 

 Consumption Mil. doz. 6,297 6,320 6,320 6,360 6,409 6,469 6,535 6,603 6,672 6,743 6,816 6,892 

 Per capita Number 250.1 248.7 246.4 245.6 245.3 245.4 245.6 246.0 246.4 246.8 247.4 247.9

 Change from previous year Percent -3.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Prices:

 Eggs, farm Cents/doz. 93.0 106.7 103.8 97.1 96.3 96.3 97.1 97.9 99.6 101.3 102.5 103.8

 New York, Grade A large Cents/doz. 114.4 127.7 123.0 117.0 116.0 116.0 117.0 118.0 120.0 122.0 123.5 125.0

Costs and returns:

 Total costs Cents/doz. 88.50 120.13 115.39 109.29 108.78 108.46 108.22 108.27 110.44 112.45 113.72 115.03

 Net returns Cents/doz. 25.90 7.57 7.61 7.71 7.22 7.54 8.78 9.73 9.56 9.55 9.78 9.97
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 53

Table 26. Dairy long-term projections

Item Units 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Milk production and marketings:

 Number of cows 1,000 9,158 9,265 9,245 9,190 9,165 9,125 9,080 9,030 8,985 8,945 8,900 8,845 

 Milk per cow Pounds 20,267 20,480 20,710 20,960 21,315 21,665 21,910 22,220 22,535 22,905 23,160 23,465 

 Milk production Bil. lbs. 185.6 189.8 191.5 192.6 195.4 197.7 198.9 200.6 202.5 204.9 206.1 207.5 

 Farm use Bil. lbs. 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4 

Supply and use, milkfat basis:

 Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.5 10.4 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2

 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4

 Imports Bil. lbs. 4.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 198.6 202.3 203.4 204.2 206.6 209.0 210.3 212.2 214.4 217.1 218.5 220.1

 Commercial use Bil. lbs. 182.5 184.4 187.7 189.7 192.1 194.9 196.3 198.2 200.4 203.1 204.7 206.4

 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 5.7 8.4 6.7 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.4

 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.4 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3

 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 198.6 202.3 203.4 204.2 206.5 209.0 210.3 212.2 214.4 217.1 218.5 220.1

 CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply and use, skim solids basis:

 Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2

 Marketings Bil. lbs. 184.4 188.6 190.3 191.5 194.3 196.6 197.8 199.5 201.4 203.8 205.0 206.4

 Imports Bil. lbs. 4.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 198.0 201.8 203.9 205.2 208.0 210.6 211.9 213.8 215.9 218.4 219.7 221.3

 Commercial use Bil. lbs. 163.6 164.5 169.9 172.7 176.3 180.2 181.9 184.1 186.0 188.6 190.0 192.0

 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 24.5 26.3 23.5 22.2 21.3 20.1 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.2

 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.1

 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 198.0 201.0 203.3 204.8 207.6 210.3 211.7 213.7 215.7 218.3 219.6 221.3

 CCC net removals Bil. lbs. 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Prices:

 All milk $/cwt 19.13 18.35 15.75 15.75 15.40 15.25 15.40 15.50 15.55 15.65 15.80 16.15

Dairy projections were completed in November 2008.

CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
54 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators 

Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures 

The ongoing world economic slowdown underpins a retreat in global consumption, trade, and 

prices in the near term, reducing the U.S. agricultural trade value and farm income from 2008 

levels. However, once global economies recover, steady domestic and international economic 

growth supports gains in the U.S. agricultural sector. In addition, longrun developments reflect 

continued demand for agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels. Thus, after 

declining in the near term, farm income and U.S. agricultural trade grow through the rest of the 

projection period. Retail food prices rise faster than the general inflation rate through 2011, partly 

reflecting higher meat prices due to livestock sector adjustments to increased feed costs. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. net farm income

Billion dollars

Net farm income declines in the near term from the high levels of 2007 and 2008, but remains 

historically strong and rebounds to near-record levels by the end of the projections. 

 Sustained biofuel demand and strengthening global food demand provide a major impetus 

for projections of rising cash receipts after 2009. 

 Lower government payments and rising farm production expenses offset some of the gains 

in cash receipts and other sources of farm income. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 55

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Direct government payments

Total direct 

government payments

Billion dollars

Direct government payments to farmers are projected to fall from $12.4 billion in 2008 to an 

average of less than $10 billion annually in 2009 to 2018. After 2010, price-dependent program 

benefits represent a declining share of payments. 

 

 Strengthening domestic and international demand holds prices for most crops above levels 

that would result in marketing loan benefits or counter-cyclical payments. For example, 

even with stochastic considerations (included here to capture potential variation in farm 

program benefits due to variability in production yields), payments for marketing loan 

benefits and counter-cyclical payments for feed grains are minimal, totaling less than $100 

million from 2010 through 2018. 

 Projections of government payments under the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) 

program (assuming stochastic yield variability) exceed $600 million in 2010 and reach 

almost $400 million in 2011, reflecting reductions in prices from recent highs. Lower 

ACRE payments of less than $200 million annually are projected for subsequent years, 

reflecting relative stability in agricultural commodity markets in the projections and 

assumed moderate levels of producer enrollment in the program. 

 

 Sustained higher crop prices make the use of land for production more valuable, so rental 

rates for land in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) rise. Nonetheless, with reduced 

enrollment of acreage in the program due to the 2008 Farm Act’s lowering of the maximum 

acreage permitted in the program, CRP payments rise only moderately and remain close to 

$2 billion annually through the projection period. 

 With higher prices, government payments have a smaller role in the agricultural sector’s 

income. Government payments, which represented more than 8 percent of gross cash 

income in 2005, account for less than 3 percent during most of the projection period. 

Conversely, the sector relies on the market for more of its income. Cash receipts plus 

farm-related income rise to over 97 percent of gross cash income. 
56 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Other 

Manufactured

Farm origin

U.S. farm production expenses

Billion dollars

Following the large runup in farm production expenses in 2008, expenses decline in 2009, largely 

due to reductions in energy-related costs. Production expenses then rise at close to the general 

inflation rate through the remainder of the projection period. Total farm production expenses are 

divided into three categories in the chart above: farm origin (seed, feed, and feeder livestock), 

manufactured (fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, and electricity), and other (labor, interest, net rent to 

nonoperator landlords, and other expenses). 

 The largest percentage increase from 2009 to 2018 is for “other” expenses, reflecting 

increases in labor expenses and interest costs. Labor expenses rise as sector output 

increases and wage rates rise. Projected increases in interest costs reflect higher interest 

rates, as well as increased debt facilitated by higher income. 

 Projected manufactured-input expenses decline in 2009 due to the reduction in crude oil 

prices from their peak in 2008. With crude oil prices then projected to rise over the 

remainder of the projection period, production expenses for manufactured inputs increase 

as well. 

 

 Farm-origin expenses rise less than the general inflation rate. Feed expenses, which rose 

rapidly in recent years with higher corn prices, decline over the next several years as corn 

prices retreat and the livestock sector is reduced. Moderate increases in feed expenses are 

then projected as the livestock sector resumes growth. Seed expenses, which also rose 

sharply in 2008 with commodity prices, increase slowly in the projection period. Expenses 

for purchased livestock increase over the first half of the projections due to price increases 

as the sector contracts. As livestock production increases later in the projection period, 

prices decline and purchased-livestock expenses level off. 

 

 Cash operating margins are projected to remain relatively stable at 75-77 percent as cash 

receipts and gross cash income rise at close to the same pace as cash expenses. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 57

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

High value

Bulk

U.S. agricultural export value: Bulk and high value 1/

1/ Bulk commodities include wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 

High-value products include semi-processed and processed grains and oilseeds, 

animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. 

Billion dollars

The value of U.S. agricultural exports declines over the next 2 years from the peak reached in fiscal 

year 2008, but then rises through the remainder of the projections due to increases in both export 

volumes and prices. A resumption of domestic economic growth boosts U.S. agricultural imports. 

 The value of U.S. agricultural exports reached a record level exceeding $115 billion in fiscal 

year 2008 as both trade volumes and prices were high. With lower volumes and declining 

prices, export values fall in 2009 and 2010. Agricultural export values are then projected to 

grow through the rest of the projection period, although they will fall short of the 2008 record. 

The continuing low value of the U.S. dollar is an important factor underlying recent export 

gains and the projected growth. And following the near-term adjustments, longer run global 

economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in trade 

and U.S. agricultural exports. High commodity prices due to continued global biofuel demand 

also contribute to the gains in export values. 

 Increases in bulk commodity prices and export volumes over the past several years have 

strengthened bulk export values, pushing the share of exports accounted for by high-value 

products (HVP) down from 64 percent in fiscal year 2006 to 56 percent in 2008. Over the 

projection period, however, HVP export values grow in importance again, initially because of 

declining bulk volumes and prices and then due to faster HVP growth. By the end of the 

projection period, HVP exports represent close to 66 percent of the value of U.S. exports. 

Much of the growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural products. 

 U.S. agricultural import values rise to $110 billion in fiscal year 2018, boosted by gains in 

consumer income and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural 

imports is assumed to continue, contributing about half of the overall agricultural import 

increase. 

 With the large gains in bulk export volumes and increases in commodity prices in 2008, the 

overall U.S. agricultural trade surplus reached a record level of $36 billion. The agricultural 

trade balance is projected to decline from this level over the projection period, but remains a 

surplus. 
58 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. food inflation

Percent change

Consumer Price Index 

(CPI), all items

Food CPI

High prices for agricultural commodities and energy contributed to U.S. consumer food prices 

rising more than the general inflation rate in 2008. Retail food prices continue to rise faster than 

overall inflation through 2011, partly reflecting higher meat prices (particularly in 2010 and 2011) 

as the livestock sector adjusts to increased feed costs. Then consumer food prices in the United 

States return to the longer term relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the 

remainder of the projection period. 

 Commodity price increases for food grains and oil-bearing crops were the primary cause of 

large retail price increases for cereals and bakery products and fats and oils in 2008. 

Projected retail prices for these foods over the projection period remain among the highest 

of foods purchased for consumption at home. Since these are generally highly processed 

foods, their prices in the longer run tend to reflect processing and marketing costs and, 

therefore, rise at rates near the general inflation rate. 

 Prices for food away from home reflect the overall inflation rate as well as some linkage to 

prices for retail meat and poultry. A slowing of growth in food consumption away from 

home is expected in the near term, due to the economic recession in the United States. 

Once the economy rebounds, income growth supports continuing gains in prices for food 

consumed away from home. Nonetheless, competition in the fast-food and foodservice 

industries tends to moderate these price increases. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 59

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. food expenditures

Food at home

Food away from home

Billion dollars

The U.S. economic recession and the runup in energy-related consumer expenses in 2008 

slowed growth in eating meals away from home in the United States. Moderate increases in 

food away from home expenditures are expected over the next several years, with stronger 

increases expected after domestic economic growth resumes. 

 In the longer run, expenditures for meals prepared away from home resume stronger 

growth and account for a growing share of total food spending, reaching 53 percent of 

overall food expenditures in 2018. 
60 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 27. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion dollars

Cash receipts:

 Crops 147.0 178.8 163.1 164.2 166.4 168.0 169.9 173.2 177.3 181.1 184.6 188.1

 Livestock and products 137.9 142.7 139.9 139.6 143.7 146.8 149.4 152.0 153.3 155.2 157.0 159.5

 All commodities 284.8 321.5 303.0 303.8 310.1 314.8 319.3 325.1 330.5 336.3 341.6 347.6

Farm-related income 16.6 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5

Government payments 11.9 12.4 10.0 10.8 9.9 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1

Gross cash income 313.4 351.6 331.1 333.2 339.0 343.7 348.6 354.9 360.8 367.0 372.8 379.2

Cash expenses 226.0 261.1 250.1 250.2 255.0 259.9 264.9 269.5 274.5 279.9 284.7 289.6

Net cash income 87.4 90.5 81.0 82.9 84.0 83.7 83.7 85.4 86.3 87.1 88.1 89.6

Value of inventory change 3.7 0.1 -1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.4

Noncash income 24.0 25.4 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.1 31.7

Gross farm income 341.1 377.2 356.7 361.0 366.9 372.1 378.3 385.8 392.5 399.9 405.8 412.4

Noncash expenses 18.2 18.6 19.2 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7

Operator dwelling expenses 10.2 11.2 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0

Total production expenses 254.4 290.9 281.0 282.9 288.0 293.3 298.7 303.6 309.0 314.7 319.9 325.2

Net farm income 86.8 86.3 75.8 78.1 78.9 78.8 79.7 82.2 83.6 85.2 86.0 87.2
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 61

Table 28. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion dollars

Agricultural exports (value):

 Livestock, dairy, and poultry 16.4 22.2 20.4 20.2 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.5 26.0

 Livestock, poultry, and products 13.9 18.1 17.3 17.3 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.0 23.6

 Dairy products 2.5 4.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 Grain and feeds 24.3 38.3 28.3 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.3 27.8

 Coarse grains 9.8 15.8 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.9

 Oilseeds and products 13.7 22.9 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.3 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9

 Soybeans and products 11.0 19.3 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6

 Horticultural products 18.0 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.0

 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6

 Fruits and vegetables, processed 4.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9

 Cotton and linters 4.3 4.8 4.0 3.4 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.4

 Other exports 5.6 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8

Total agricultural exports 82.2 115.5 98.5 95.7 97.5 99.7 101.2 103.2 105.9 108.6 110.8 113.0

 Bulk commodity exports 31.5 50.7 37.6 35.4 35.6 35.8 35.5 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.1 38.5

 High-value product exports 50.6 64.8 60.9 60.2 62.0 63.8 65.6 67.5 69.3 71.1 72.7 74.4

 High-value product share 61.6% 56.1% 61.8% 62.9% 63.6% 64.0% 64.9% 65.4% 65.4% 65.5% 65.6% 65.9%

Million metric tons

Agricultural exports (volume):

Bulk commodity exports 125.4 139.4 112.8 119.4 121.3 122.8 123.2 124.4 125.9 127.4 129.2 131.0

Billion dollars

 Livestock, dairy, and poultry 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5

 Livestock and meats 8.9 8.7 8.4 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8

 Dairy products 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3

 Grain and feeds 6.0 7.9 8.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5

 Grain products 3.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1

 Oilseeds and products 4.0 6.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0

 Vegetable oils 2.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

 Horticultural products 32.4 34.7 36.1 37.3 38.7 40.2 41.8 43.4 45.1 46.9 48.7 50.6

 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.3

 Fruits and vegetables, processed 6.6 7.5 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0

 Wine and beer 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5

 Sugar and tropical products 14.1 16.4 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.7 19.3 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6

 Sugar and related products 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9

 Cocoa, coffee, and products 6.2 7.4 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6

 Other imports 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9

Total agricultural imports 70.1 79.3 81.0 83.0 85.7 89.1 92.4 96.1 99.5 102.9 106.4 110.1

Net agricultural trade balance 12.1 36.2 17.5 12.6 11.9 10.5 8.8 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.4 2.9

Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Notes: The projections were completed in November 2008 based on policy decisions and other information known at that time. For updates of the nearby 

year forecasts, see USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, published in February, May, August, and November. 

Notes: Other exports includes tobacco, seeds, sugar and tropical products, and beverages and preparations. Bulk commodity exports covers wheat, rice, 

feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value product (HVP) exports is calculated as total exports less the bulk commodities. HVP's include 

semiprocessed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals and animal products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products. Other imports 

include cotton, tobacco, and planting seeds. 

Agricultural imports (value):
62 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 29. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections

CPI category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price indexes:

Food commodities1 138.0 146.0 145.6 143.8 146.8 149.1 150.3 152.2 153.0 153.7 154.3 155.6

Food grains 186.0 258.0 277.8 232.9 224.3 219.1 213.1 212.2 216.3 218.7 219.6 220.5

Oil-bearing crops 137.0 202.0 177.0 175.0 175.0 174.0 172.0 174.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 176.0

Vegetables2 150.6 152.0 166.5 168.2 170.5 172.8 175.2 177.6 180.0 182.4 184.9 187.3

Fruit and nuts 157.0 148.0 152.1 156.2 160.5 164.9 169.4 174.0 178.7 183.5 188.5 193.5

Meat animals 118.0 117.0 121.7 123.1 130.5 135.7 137.9 140.3 139.5 139.1 138.2 138.0

Dairy products 147.0 141.0 121.0 121.0 118.3 117.2 118.3 119.1 119.5 120.3 121.4 124.1

Poultry and eggs 140.0 151.0 154.7 156.2 160.4 162.4 164.0 165.6 166.0 166.2 166.5 167.8

Changes in price indexes: Percent

Food commodities1 17.9 5.8 -0.2 -1.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8

Food grains 38.8 38.7 7.7 -16.2 -3.7 -2.3 -2.7 -0.4 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.4

Oil-bearing crops 37.0 47.4 -12.4 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6

Vegetables2 12.9 0.9 9.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3

Fruit and nuts 1.9 -5.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Meat animals 1.7 -0.8 4.0 1.2 6.0 4.0 1.6 1.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1

Dairy products 48.5 -4.1 -14.2 0.0 -2.2 -1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.2

Poultry and eggs 26.1 7.9 2.4 1.0 2.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8

1990-92=100

1/ The aggregate price index for food commodities is a weighted average using the NASS relative weights, which are based on average shares of farm 

cash receipts from 1990 to 1992. 2/ The price index for vegetables is a weighted average of the index for commercial vegetables and the index for 

potatoes and dry beans.

Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Prices Summary; Economic Research Service.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 63

Table 30. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections

CPI category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Consumer price indices

All food 202.916 214.106 220.5 226.9 233.4 239.5 245.0 250.6 255.7 261.0 266.3 272.1

Food away from home 206.659 215.769 224.0 231.2 238.6 245.8 252.7 259.8 266.8 274.0 281.4 289.0

Food at home 201.245 214.125 219.5 225.4 231.4 236.8 241.5 246.3 250.3 254.4 258.6 263.2

Meats 194.983 201.815 207.9 217.3 227.2 234.7 238.8 242.2 242.5 242.8 242.8 243.5

Beef and veal 211.060 220.586 227.2 239.7 251.3 261.4 266.9 272.0 271.8 270.5 268.5 267.9

Pork 180.912 185.034 189.7 196.1 205.9 210.5 212.0 212.1 211.2 212.1 213.1 214.4

Other meats 184.822 190.588 197.3 203.2 209.3 214.5 218.8 222.7 226.0 229.4 232.8 236.3

Poultry 191.360 200.901 204.5 215.3 224.9 227.4 228.5 229.2 227.3 224.9 223.0 223.2

Fish and seafood 219.087 232.122 242.6 251.1 258.6 266.4 274.4 282.6 291.1 299.8 308.8 318.1

Eggs 195.291 222.708 213.0 206.7 205.9 206.9 209.7 212.5 217.1 221.7 225.5 229.2

Dairy products 194.770 210.396 202.0 204.5 206.0 208.5 212.0 215.5 218.5 222.0 226.0 230.5

Fats and oils 172.921 196.751 202.6 207.1 211.4 216.0 221.1 226.3 231.4 236.8 242.5 248.4

Fruits and vegetables 262.628 278.932 289.8 295.7 301.9 308.1 314.7 321.3 328.0 334.9 341.9 349.1

Sugar and sweets 176.772 186.577 192.0 194.0 196.1 199.8 202.7 206.2 210.1 214.1 218.3 222.5

Cereals and bakery products 222.107 244.853 251.8 256.6 262.2 267.9 273.8 280.2 286.9 293.6 300.4 307.3

Nonalcoholic beverages 153.432 160.045 166.1 171.9 177.1 181.5 186.0 190.7 195.5 200.4 205.4 210.5

Other foods 188.244 198.103 206.2 212.4 218.2 223.7 228.9 234.2 239.5 245.0 250.7 256.4

Food expenditures:

All food 1,139.4 1,203.6 1,243.1 1,287.9 1,337.0 1,389.5 1,442.1 1,496.9 1,551.6 1,608.6 1,668.3 1,731.3

Food at home 583.7 617.8 632.0 651.1 670.2 689.3 708.2 727.7 746.3 765.5 785.6 807.1

Food away from home 555.7 585.8 611.1 636.8 666.8 700.2 733.9 769.2 805.3 843.1 882.7 924.2

Changes in consumer food prices:

All food 4.0 5.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2

Food away from home 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Food at home 4.2 6.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Meats 3.3 3.5 3.0 4.5 4.6 3.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3

Beef and veal 4.4 4.5 3.0 5.5 4.8 4.0 2.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2

Pork 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.4 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6

Other meats 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Poultry 5.1 5.0 1.8 5.3 4.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 0.1

Fish and seafood 4.6 5.9 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Eggs 29.2 14.0 -4.4 -3.0 -0.4 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6

Dairy products 7.4 8.0 -4.0 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Fats and oils 2.9 13.8 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4

Fruits and vegetables 3.8 6.2 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

Sugar and sweets 3.1 5.5 2.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9

Cereals and bakery products 4.4 10.2 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3

Nonalcoholic beverages 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Other foods 1.8 5.2 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

1982-84=100

Billion dollars

Percent
64 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Agricultural Trade 

Global economic growth slows during the beginning of the 2009-18 projection period, but recovers 

after 2010 and remains slightly above the historical average long-term growth rate during the last 

half of the period. This renewed growth provides a foundation for gains in world demand for 

agricultural products. Although the expansion in global biofuels production slows in the 

projections, it also adds to global demand for agricultural commodities. 

Developing countries are the main source of growth in world demand and trade. Food 

consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with 

movement away from staple foods and increased diversification of diets. Demand from 

developing countries is further reinforced by population growth rates that remain nearly twice that 

of developed countries. 

Developing countries account for more than two-thirds of the projected increase in world meat 

imports. Generally, middle-income countries with increasing per capita incomes are expected to 

have the most rapid growth. However, large increases in poultry and beef imports are projected 

for Africa and the Middle East. Strong policy support for domestically produced meat is expected 

to motivate growth in feed grain imports in regions where limited land availability or agroclimatic 

conditions preclude expanding domestic crop production. 

World consumption of aggregate grains and oilseeds exceeded production in 7 of the past 8 years. 

As a result, global stocks dropped sharply. Crop prices rose dramatically between 2003 and 2008. 

In response, world crop area for 2008 crops increased sharply and favorable weather caused world 

production of grains and oilseeds to jump nearly 5 percent. Although prices have plummeted since 

mid-2008, they are projected to remain above pre-2007 levels in the coming decade. 

World agricultural production rises in response to high prices and technology enhancements. 

However, limited ability to expand planted area in many countries and slowing global productivity 

gains constrain production growth and raise uncertainties about future supply response. 

Traditional exporters of a wide range of agricultural commodities, such as Argentina, Australia, 

Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United States, remain important in the coming decade. 

But countries that are making significant investments in their agricultural sectors, including Brazil, 

Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, are expected to have an increasing presence in export markets 

for basic agricultural commodities. 

General International Assumptions 

Trade projections to 2018 are founded on assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields, 

and use and on the assumption that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral 

agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The projections incorporate the effects of 

trade agreements and domestic policies in place or signed by November 2008. International 

macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2008. 

Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to 

evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and 

commodity analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing 

countries are assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of technology and changes 

in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and 

analysts’ judgments regarding future developments. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 65

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products

Million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

Coarse grains

1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units.

Wheat

Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has 

surpassed not only wheat—the traditional leader in agricultural commodity trade—but also total 

coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong 

growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China and other Asian 

countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse 

grains trade throughout the next decade. 

 Production of wheat, coarse grains, and oilseeds (including soybeans) compete with each 

other and with other crops for limited cropland. Higher prices for vegetable oils, as a result 

of increased demand for food use as well as for biodiesel and other industrial uses, are 

bringing previously uncropped land in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia into soybean and 

palm oil production. 

 In the projections, the growth in total area planted to all crops rises less than a half-percent 

per year in most countries. Area expansion occurs more rapidly in countries with a reserve 

of available land and policies that enable farmers to respond to higher world prices. Such 

countries include Brazil, some other South American countries, some Eastern European 

countries, Russia, and Ukraine. About two-thirds of the projected growth in global 

production is derived from rising yields. The growth rate in crop yields has slowed 

somewhat during the last several decades and is projected to continue to do so. 

 The impact of slowing growth in total crop production is partially offset by declining 

growth in world population. Nonetheless, increasing population is a significant factor 

driving overall growth in demand for agricultural products. Additionally, rising per capita 

income in many countries augments population gains in the demand for vegetable oils, 

meats, and horticultural products. 

 In the coming decade, overall gains in global grain trade come from a broad range of 

countries, particularly from countries in Africa and the Middle East. 

 During the projection period, world average per capita use of vegetable oils is projected to 

rise 12 percent, compared with 5 percent for total coarse grains and 3 percent for meat. Per 

capita use is projected to decline nearly 3 percent for wheat and 2 percent for rice. 
66 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Global Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks 

Investment in biofuel production capacity is occurring in many countries. The main feedstocks 

used are corn and sugarcane for ethanol and rapeseed and soybean oil for biodiesel. Other 

feedstocks being used include barley, wheat, rye, wine, and cassava for ethanol production and a 

variety of other first-use vegetable oils and recycled oils and fats from the food industry for 

biodiesel. 

Biofuel Assumptions Used for the USDA Projections 

The demand for biofuels feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries, 

although at a slower pace than in recent years. The projections are based on a combination of 

historical biofuel production data, USDA interpretation of statements by foreign governments 

about their plans for biofuel development, and other information about potential investments in 

biofuel production capacity. 

Country Assumptions 

EU: The EU has a “target” to obtain 5.75 percent of transportation fuel from biofuels by 2010. 

Since the 5.75-percent “target” was set, the EU has established a “mandate” that biofuels account 

for 10 percent of transportation fuel use by 2020. The USDA projections assume the EU increases 

oilseed and vegetable oil imports from Russia and Ukraine to help boost biodiesel production. 

Nevertheless, progress toward the mandate is assumed to be behind schedule throughout the 

projection period. 

Brazil: Sugarcane is the feedstock for nearly all of Brazil’s ethanol production. In southern 

Brazil, some land has already been shifted from grain and oilseeds production to sugarcane. The 

projections assume this trend continues, but at a slower pace. Biodiesel production is also 

projected to expand, using soybean oil as the feedstock. 

Canada: Canadian biodiesel production is projected to expand between 2009 and 2018. Most of 

the increased production will be from rapeseed produced and processed in the Prairie Provinces. 

Ethanol production is also projected to continue expanding. 

Argentina: The production of biodiesel in Argentina is assumed to more than double during the 

projection period. To effectively use its large crushing capacity, Argentina is projected to import 

some soybeans from other South American countries. 

Other Europe and the former Soviet Union: This region is assumed to respond to the EU’s 

increasing demand for biodiesel by expanding rapeseed production. In Russia and Ukraine, 

rapeseed production rises more than 80 percent in the projections. Some of the production gains 

are destined for export to the EU, either as rapeseed oil or as rapeseed for crushing in the EU. 

China: In 2008, approximately 3 million tons of corn were used to produce fuel ethanol in China. 

The government is trying to slow the growth in corn-based ethanol production, and is focusing on 

the use of nongrain feedstocks such as sweet potatoes and cassava.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 67

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Africa & M. East 

 China

 NAFTA

 Latin America

 FSU & OE 1/

 European Union 2/

 East Asia

Global wheat imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countries where income and 

population gains underpin increases in demand. Important growth markets include Sub-Saharan 

Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Algeria, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brazil. World wheat trade 

(including flour) expands by nearly 22 million tons (18 percent) between 2009 and 2018 to 

141.6 million tons. 

 Egypt maintains its position as the world’s largest importing country, as imports climb 

slowly to more than 9 million tons. Imports by Brazil, Algeria, and Indonesia are each 

projected to exceed 7 million tons. Brazil’s climate generally does not favor wheat, and in 

some key wheat-producing states, winter corn is expected to provide better producer 

returns than wheat. 

 Imports by developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East 

rise 11.6 million tons and account for 53 percent of the total increase in world wheat trade. 

Saudi Arabia has adopted a policy to phase out wheat production subsidies by 2016 

because of water scarcity concerns, and imports are projected to jump by 3 million tons by 

the end of the projections. 

 In most developing countries, little change in per capita wheat consumption is expected but 

imports expand modestly because of population growth and limited potential to expand 

production. 

 Changing consumption patterns will boost wheat imports by some major importing 

countries. In Indonesia, Vietnam, and some other Asian countries, strong economic growth 

and diversification of diets are projected to increase per capita wheat consumption. 

 Lower wheat-to-corn price ratios during most of the projection period enable wheat to 

compete effectively with corn for feed use in a number of countries. Europe is expected to 

continue to account for about half of global wheat feeding. 
68 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 FSU & OE 1/ 

 European Union 2/

 Australia

 Argentina

 Canada

 United States

Global wheat exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

The traditional five largest wheat-exporting nations (the United States, Australia, the EU, 

Argentina, and Canada) account for 70 percent of world trade in 2009-18. This is down from 89 

percent in 1997/98, mostly due to increased exports from the Black Sea area. U.S. wheat exports 

are projected to account for less than 21 percent of global wheat trade at the end of the projection 

period, down from 26 percent in the past 5 years. By the end of 2007, the global stocks-to-use 

ratio had declined to the lowest level on record. A significant 2008/09 rebound in global 

production enabled stocks to jump and precipitated a decline in prices. However, after working 

down these larger stocks, much of it lower quality feed wheat, stocks are projected to continue to 

be lower than during the 1990s. Prices are projected to remain above pre-2007 average levels. 

 Shares of the world wheat market held by Canada and the United States decline slightly, 

while shares increase for the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina. 

 In Canada, increased demand for vegetable oils, especially rapeseed oil for human 

consumption and biodiesel production, and increasing demand for barley, are expected to 

reduce wheat area and limit any growth in wheat exports. 

 Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan have become significant wheat exporters in recent years. 

Low costs of production, new investment in their agricultural sectors, and generally 

favorable weather since 2001 have enabled their combined world market share to climb to 

about 20 percent in the last 3 years. Russia is expected to increase wheat production for 

domestic feed use. Exports from Ukraine and Russia are projected to continue gaining 

market share, more than offsetting a slight decline in the share held by Kazakhstan. 

However, because of the region’s highly variable weather and yields, year-to-year volatility 

in production and trade can be expected. 

 Wheat exports by Turkey and other smaller exporters change little or trend slowly 

downward during the projection period. Although India has exported some wheat in recent 

years, exports are expected to be minimal as domestic demand expands as fast as 

production. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 69

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other 1/

 Corn

 Barley

 Sorghum

Global coarse grain trade, by type

Million metric tons

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.

Growth in coarse grain trade is strongly linked to expansion of livestock production in regions 

unable to meet their own feed needs. Key growth markets include China, Mexico, North Africa, 

the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are large but mature import markets 

for coarse grains. 

 Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets. Corn accounts for an 

average of 75 percent of all coarse grain trade through the projection period, followed by 

barley (17 percent) and sorghum (5 percent). 

 Commercialization of livestock feeding has been a driving force behind the growing 

dominance of corn in international feed grain markets. Hogs and ruminants, such as cattle 

and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively 

price-sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as pork and poultry production 

become increasingly commercialized, higher quality feeds are used, boosting the demand 

for corn and soybean meal. 

 Mexico’s corn imports rise throughout the projection period and sorghum imports resume 

growth after 2009/10. Mexico’s imports of cracked corn are projected to be almost 

completely replaced by whole-grain corn. Cracked corn from the United States and 

Canada has had duty-free access to the Mexican market since 2003. However, effective 

January 1, 2008, Mexico ended its transitional tariff-rate quota on U.S. and Canadian corn, 

as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This change removed the 

incentive for Mexico to import cracked corn instead of whole-grain corn. 
70 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

World coarse grain trade expands nearly 19 million tons (16 percent) from 2009 to 2018. The 

share of global coarse grain production used as animal feed declines slightly from about 63 percent 

in recent years to 60 percent during the projections. Industrial uses, such as starch, ethanol, and 

malt production, are much smaller but growing. The share of coarse grains used for food has been 

declining during the last decade and is projected to continue doing so. 

 World grain prices have risen during the last several years as global grain stocks declined 

sharply. Although the higher prices are expected to continue stimulating grain production, 

neither stocks-to-use ratios nor prices return to levels prevailing during the last three 

decades. 

 Steady longrun growth in the livestock sectors of developing countries in Latin America, 

Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East is projected to account for much of the growth in 

world coarse grain imports during the next decade. 

 Russia is expected to produce more coarse grains for domestic feed use. 

 Mexico’s corn imports are projected to rise from 9.1 million tons in 2009/10 to 11.5 million in 

2018. With the conclusion of NAFTA’s liberalization of U.S.-Mexico corn trade, growth in 

Mexican corn imports will be influenced by rising feed demand from Mexico’s poultry sector. 

 The North Africa and the Middle East region is expected to experience continued growth in 

import demand for grain and protein meals through 2018 as rising populations and 

increasing incomes sustain strong demand growth for domestically produced animal 

products. In Egypt, government policy has shifted toward allowing more poultry meat 

imports. Still, poultry production is projected to rise, boosting corn imports more than 

2 million tons. 

 In Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, increasing imports of selected meat cuts constrain meat 

production, resulting in no growth in coarse grain imports. 

 Countries in Southeast Asia raise corn imports 1.7 million tons (32 percent) during the 

projection period as their increased demand for livestock products exceeds their capacity to 

grow more feed grains. 

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 European Union 1/

 Africa & ME

 China & HK

 Mexico

 Latin America

 FSU & OE 2/

 East Asia

Global coarse grain imports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992.

2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 71

The United States dominates world trade in coarse grains, particularly corn. However, increasing 

domestic corn use for ethanol, large competing supplies of feed wheat, and reduced world trade 

limit U.S. corn exports at the beginning of the projection period. As stocks of feed wheat are 

consumed and world corn trade recovers, U.S. corn exports are projected to resume growth after 

declining in 2008/09. The U.S. share of world corn trade remains between 55 and 60 percent. 

 Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the world’s second-largest corn exporter. 

Due to higher export taxes on grains, Argentina shifts some cropland from corn to soybean 

production and corn exports increase slowly. Argentina and other South American 

countries increase corn exports to Chile to support its expanding pork exports. 

 The EU becomes a more competitive corn exporter. Increases in area and yields enable it 

to more than double shipments during the projections. Exports from other European 

countries are also projected to climb steadily. 

 Corn exports from some countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU), primarily Ukraine, 

rise to nearly 5 million tons by 2018. Favorable resource endowments, increasing 

economic openness, and greater investment in their agricultural sectors stimulate corn 

production. However, efforts to increase meat production and reduce meat imports, keep 

exports from growing more rapidly. 

 Brazil’s corn exports are near record high levels during the early years of the projections. 

In the last several years, Brazil has targeted the EU’s demand for non-genetically modified 

grain. This marketing opportunity is assumed to diminish as Brazil legalizes planting of 

genetically modified corn varieties and the EU reduces imports. Also, strong growth in 

domestic demand from its livestock and poultry sectors and the profitability of growing 

soybeans limits corn production and exports. 

 China becomes a net importer of about 2 million tons of corn at the end of the projections 

as imports grow slowly while exports remain small. China’s strengthening domestic 

demand is driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Eur opean Union 1/

 FSU 2/

 Brazil

 A rgentin a

 China 

 United States

Global corn exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

2/ Former Soviet Union.
72 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Other N. Africa & M. East

 Saudi Arabia

 China

 FSU & OE 1/

 Latin America 2/

 Japan

 USA

Global barley imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

2/ Includes Mexico. 

Global barley trade expands 3.3 million tons (17 percent) during the projection period. Rising 

demand for both malting and feed barley underpin the increased trade. 

 Feed barley imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries grow steadily over the 

next decade. In the mid-1990s, corn overtook barley as the principal coarse grain imported 

by these countries, due mainly to rising poultry production. This pattern is expected to 

continue through the projection period. However, the North Africa and Middle East region 

is expected to remain the world’s largest barley importing area. 

 Saudi Arabia—the world’s foremost barley-importing country—accounts for over 35 

percent of world barley trade through the coming decade. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports 

are used primarily as feed for camels, goats, and sheep. 

 Iran is another Middle East country that is projected to increase barley imports during the 

coming decade. 

 International demand for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in 

many developing countries, notably China—the world’s largest malting-barley importer. 

China’s beer demand is rising steadily due to growth in incomes and population. 

Expansion in China’s brewing capacity is being aided by foreign investment. Australia and 

Canada are China’s main sources of malting barley imports. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 73

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 European Union 1/

 FSU 2/ 

 Australia 

 Canada 

 Other

Global barley exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

2/ Former Soviet Union.

Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from the EU, Australia, and Canada. 

However, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in 

international feed barley markets and remain so throughout the projection period. 

 In the EU, reform of the Common Agricultural Policy abolished EU intervention for rye 

and stimulated the allocation of more area to barley production. EU exports to non-EU 

countries are projected to climb more than 30 percent to 7 million tons over the projection 

period, and account for 30 percent of world trade. 

 The FSU remains a major barley exporter throughout the coming decade as exports remain 

around 6 million tons. Together, the FSU and EU account for about 60 percent of world 

barley exports by 2018. 

 Malting barley is a different quality than feed barley and commands a substantial price 

premium over feed barley. This premium is expected to influence planting decisions in 

Canada and Australia and, in both countries, malting barley’s share of total barley area is 

expected to rise during the projection period. An increase in Canada’s total barley area 

offsets a decline in the area planted to wheat and minor coarse grains. 
74 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Sub-Saharan Africa 1/

 Mexico

 Japan

Global sorghum imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

World sorghum trade, which averaged nearly 6.7 million tons during the last decade, declines to 

5 million tons in the early years of the projection period before rising to 7 million tons at the end. 

Sorghum trade is driven mostly by U.S. exports to Mexico and Japan. 

 The EU normally imports small quantities of sorghum as part of the Spain-Portugal Accession 

Agreement, but because of domestic and global corn production shortfalls and limited 

availability of nongenetically modified corn to import, it became the world’s largest sorghum 

importer in 2007/08. EU corn production returned to normal levels in 2008 and its future 

imports of both corn and sorghum are projected to be modest. 

 Mexico has accounted for about half of world sorghum imports until the most recent years. 

Mexico’s sorghum imports are projected to increase to nearly 4 million tons by 2018. At this 

import level, Mexico again accounts for more than 50 percent of world sorghum imports. 

 Japan imports a fairly constant volume of sorghum (1.3 million tons) throughout the period to 

maintain diversity and stability in its feed grain supplies. 

 The United States is the largest exporter of sorghum, accounting for more than 80 percent of 

world trade in 2000-05. During the early part of the projection period, U.S. exports, and its 

share of world trade decline. During the latter half of the period, U.S. exports and its share of 

world trade recover but remain near the levels of the past two years. 

 The primary sorghum markets for Argentina, the world’s second largest exporter, are Japan, 

Chile, and Europe. In Argentina, prices and profitability are expected to favor planting 

soybeans and corn, so sorghum exports remain relatively flat during the projection period. 

 Brazil has begun to export small quantities of sorghum and the volume is projected to rise 

during the projection period. In the Central-West region of Brazil, sorghum is increasingly 

planted during the dry season between crops of soybeans or cotton. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 75

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil

Soybeans and soybean meal, 

million metric tons

Soybeans

Soybean meal

Soybean oil

Soybean oil, 

million metric tons

Strong income and population growth in developing countries generate increasing demand for 

vegetable oils for food consumption and for protein meals used in livestock production. Demand 

for vegetable oils to be used as feedstocks for biodiesel is also projected to increase. Because a 

number of countries prefer to import oilseeds for crushing, rather than import soybean meal or 

soybean oil, world trade in soybeans expands more rapidly than for soybean meal or soybean oil. 

 Prices for vegetable oils rise due to increasing consumer demand in developing countries 

and the expansion of biodiesel production. As demand increases for vegetable oils faster 

than for protein meals, vegetable oil prices rise more rapidly than for oilseeds and protein 

meals. 

 Many countries with limited opportunity to expand oilseed production continue investment 

in oilseed crushing capacity, such as China and some countries in North Africa, the Middle 

East, and South Asia. As a result, import demand for soybeans and rapeseed grows rapidly. 

However, strong competition in international protein meal markets is expected to shift 

some of the import demand from oilseeds to cheaper meals. 

 China’s expansion of domestic crushing capacity significantly influences the composition 

of world trade by raising global import demand for soybeans and other oilseeds rather than 

for oilseed products. 

 In Argentina, uncertainties about grain policies cause farmers to shift some land to soybean 

production. However, future soybean expansion is constrained by slower rates of 

conversion of pasture land to cropland. 

 Brazil’s rapidly increasing soybean area enables it to gain a larger share of world soybean 

and soybean meal exports, despite increasing domestic feed use. Its share of world exports 

of soybeans plus the soybean equivalent of soybean meal rises from about 30 percent in 

recent years to 33 percent by 2018. 

 EU rapeseed area increases early in the projections in response to the demand for rapeseed 

oil for biodiesel production. Only small amounts of soybean oil are used for biodiesel 

production. 
76 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 China & Hong Kong

 N. Africa & M. East

 Latin America 1/

 East Asia

 European Union 2/

Global soybean imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, 

Slovenia before 1992. 

World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly, climbing nearly 27 million tons (33 percent) 

during the next decade. 

 The EU was the world’s leading importer of soybeans until 2002. However, increases in 

grain and rapeseed meal feeding and rising imports of soybean meal have resulted in 

declining soybean imports since then. These trends are projected to continue. 

 China’s soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for nearly half of world trade. 

China will face policy decisions regarding tradeoffs in producing or importing corn and 

soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will support maintaining domestic 

corn production and importing soybeans. Thus, China accounts for more than 80 percent 

of the projected 27-million-ton growth in global soybean imports over the next 10 years. 

Significant investments in oilseed crushing infrastructure by China drive strong gains in 

soybean imports as China seeks to capture the value added from processing oilseeds into 

protein meal and vegetable oil. The use of vegetable oils for biofuels production is 

assumed to have a negligible impact on China’s total vegetable oil use. 

 East Asia’s trade outlook is dominated by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to 

importing meat and other livestock products. As a result, this region’s import demand for 

protein meal and oilseeds does not rise during the coming decade despite rising meat 

consumption. 

 Mexico’s soybean imports are projected to increase by about one-third during the 

projection period. These imports will support the production of soybean meal for the 

Mexican poultry industry and soybean oil for domestic food consumption. 

 For Argentina to operate its expanding crushing facilities at full capacity, it is expected to 

import 5 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia by the end 

of the period. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 77

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Other South America

 Brazil

 Argentina

 United States

Global soybean exports

Million metric tons

The three leading soybean exporters—the United States, Brazil, and Argentina—have 

accounted for more than 90 percent of world trade in recent years. Their market share is 

projected to decline to slightly less than 90 percent as exports rise from other exporting 

countries, such as Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia. 

 With continuing area gains, Brazil maintains its position as the world’s leading exporter of 

soybeans and soybean products. Combating soybean rust disease increases production 

costs. However, because of the increased domestic demand for soybean meal for livestock 

feed and soybean oil for human consumption and biodiesel production, soybeans remain 

more profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. It is assumed that some land in 

southern Brazil will shift from oilseed to corn production during the middle of the 

projection period in response to higher corn prices and more limited competition from U.S. 

corn exports. Still, with expanded soybean plantings in the Cerrado regions, the growth 

rate for Brazil’s soybean planted area is projected to average more than 3.5 percent per 

year, reaching more than 30 million hectares by 2018. Soybean exports are projected to 

rise more than 80 percent. 

 Argentina’s export tax rates are higher for soybeans than for soybean products, which 

favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting the products. However, in response 

to world demand for soybeans for crushing, Argentina’s soybean exports have risen sharply 

and remain above 14 million tons throughout the projection period. 

 Other South American countries, principally Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, expand 

exports nearly 50 percent to more than 10 million tons. Five million tons are destined for 

the crushing industry in Argentina. 

 Russia and Ukraine respond to higher international market prices for oilseeds by increasing 

production of rapeseed and soybeans. Although rapeseed production will be most affected, 

Ukrainian soybean exports are projected to increase somewhat. 

 In the United States, reduced soybean acreage and increased domestic crush limit 

exportable supplies, but their competitiveness is aided by the dollar’s value remaining 

below the early 2000s level. 
78 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 European Union 1/

 Southeast Asia

 Latin America 2/

 N. Africa & Middle East

 FSU & OE 3/

 East Asia

Global soybean meal imports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech 

Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 

World trade in soybean meal grows briskly during the projections, rising more than 17 million tons 

(nearly 30 percent) by 2018. Continuing growth in the demand for livestock products, limited 

capability to increase oilseed production, and relatively lower world prices for protein meals boost 

demand for soybean meal by a number of countries with rising middle-income populations. Lower 

import prices for soybean meal relative to soybeans and grains provide incentives for countries to 

use imported soybean meal at a higher rate in livestock feed rations. 

 The EU remains the world’s largest destination for soybean meal throughout the projection 

period, despite increased domestic feeding of grains and rapeseed meal. Although there 

will be abundant supplies of low-cost rapeseed meal available for feed as a result of the 

biofuels expansion, there are technical limits on the amount of rapeseed meal that can be 

incorporated in livestock ratios. As a result, growth in soybean meal imports is expected to 

continue. Also, an increase in the dairy production quota increases soybean meal feeding. 

 The regions of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and North Africa and the Middle East all 

become larger importers of soybean meal due to increasing demand for livestock feed in 

many countries. 

 Mexico’s strong growth in demand for protein feed and vegetable oils is projected to 

continue. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 79

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Argentina

 Brazil

 United States

Global soybean meal exports

Million metric tons

Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain the three major exporters in international soybean 

meal markets. Together, they account for nearly 90 percent of total world soybean meal trade 

during the next 10 years. Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, increases its share 

of the world market from around 45 percent in recent years to 55 percent. Brazil’s share of world 

exports remains in the 20-25 percent range while the shares held by the United States and other 

exporters fall. 

 Argentina imposes higher export taxes on soybeans than on soybean products. This has 

provided an incentive for the country to develop a large oilseed crushing capacity. 

Argentina maintains high utilization of its growing crushing capacity by importing 

soybeans from Brazil and other South American countries. 

 In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion of the 

poultry and pork sectors limits increases in soybean meal exports. Also, domestic soybean 

crushing capacity is not expected to grow as fast as soybean production because Brazil’s 

differential export tax structure favors exporting soybeans rather than soybean meal or 

soybean oil. 

 U.S. soybean meal exports hold steady at around 8 million tons throughout the projections, 

but the U.S. share of world trade declines steadily from more than 14 percent in recent 

years to less than 11 percent by 2018. 

 The EU continues to be a small but steady exporter of soybean meal to Russia and other 

East European countries. India remains an exporter, although export volume declines as 

domestic use, especially for poultry feed, rapidly expands. 
80 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 EU, FSU, & OE 1/

 India

 China

 Other Asia 2/

 N. Africa & M. East

 Latin America 3/

Global soybean oil imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 

2/ Asia excluding India and China. 3/ Includes Mexico. 

World demand for soybean oil imports climbs 3.2 million tons (29 percent) in the projections, 

bolstered by rising food use and increased demand for use in biofuel production. China and India 

are the world’s two largest soybean oil importers, primarily for food use. In recent years, their 

combined imports have been around 3.5 million tons, more than a third of total world imports. 

The growth in soybean oil trade will be constrained by competition with palm oil, which claims the 

top ranking in world vegetable oil trade. 

 Import demand for soybean oil rises in nearly all countries and regions. Income and 

population growth in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America contribute to gains 

in soybean oil imports. Although rising international prices for soybean oil will temper 

consumption, especially in developing countries, imports by the North Africa and the 

Middle East region are projected to be exceeded only by those of China. 

 India remains one of the world’s largest soybean oil importers. Factors that contribute to 

continued growth in imports include burgeoning domestic demand for vegetable oils and 

limited capacity for domestic production of oilseeds. Low yields, associated with erratic 

rainfed growing conditions and low input use, inhibit growth of oilseed production in India. 

India sharply reduced edible oil tariffs to zero in 2008 in response to high world prices. 

Since then, soybean oil tariffs have been raised. However, the projections assume that the 

tariff rates will return to near traditional relationships, and eliminate a tariff disadvantage 

for soybean oil relative to palm and other oils. 

 China experiences a growing demand for vegetable oils. However, land-use competition 

from other crops constrains area planted to oilseed crops. Even with strong increases in 

soybean imports for crush, domestic demand outpaces vegetable oil production and fuels a 

moderate expansion in soybean oil imports. 

 The EU imports more soybean oil to replace some of the rapeseed oil that is used in the 

production of biodiesel, although imports of sunflowerseed oil and palm oil will also be in 

great demand. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 81

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Argentina

 Brazil

 European Union 1/

 United States

Global soybean oil exports

Million metric tons

1/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Argentina’s and Brazil’s combined share of world soybean oil exports rises slowly from around 

80 percent early in the projections to nearly 85 percent by the end of the projections. 

 Argentina is the leading exporter of soybean oil, reflecting the country’s large crushing 

capacity, its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors 

exports of soybean products rather than soybeans. Increases in soybean crush and soybean 

oil exports are supported by gains in Argentine soybean production due to extensive 

double-cropping, further adjustments in crop-pasture rotations, and the addition of marginal 

lands in the northwest part of the country. Argentina also increases soybean imports from 

other South American countries in order to more fully utilize its crushing capacity. Despite 

continued expansion in Argentina’s biodiesel production, soybean oil exports are also 

expected to rise strongly. 

 Brazil’s expansion of soybean production into new areas of cultivation enables it to 

increase both its volume of soybean oil exports and its share of world trade. 

 The United States remains the world’s third-largest soybean oil exporter. U.S. soybean oil 

exports are constrained by increased use for biodiesel production, and the U.S. share of 

world trade is projected to fall below the average of recent years. However, U.S. exports 

will be supported as imports supplement the domestic edible oil supply. U.S. imports of 

canola oil from Canada and palm oil from Southeast Asia are projected to continue to grow 

strongly. 

 In the EU, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limited by the growth in biodiesel 

production. 
82 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 Other Asia

 Indonesia

 N. Africa & M. East

 Sub-Saharan Africa

 EU, FSU, & OE 1/

 Latin America 2/

Global rice imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico.

Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.4 percent per year from 2009 to 2018. By 2018, global 

rice trade exceeds 38 million tons, 22 percent above the 2006 record. The main factors driving the 

expansion in global trade are a steady growth in demand—largely due to population growth in 

developing countries—and the inability to significantly boost production in key importing nations. 

 Long-grain varieties account for around three-fourths of global rice trade and are expected to 

account for the bulk of trade growth over the next decade. Medium- and short-grain varieties 

account for 10-12 percent of global trade, with Northeast Asia the largest market. Aromatic 

rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, makes up most of the rest of global rice trade. 

 Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh become the three largest rice-importing countries by 

the end of the projection period. By 2018, each country is projected to import 2.3 million tons 

of rice or more. These three countries have limited ability to expand production and are 

expected to account for nearly half of the increase in global rice imports over the next decade. 

 In Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, strong demand growth is driven by rapidly 

expanding populations. Production growth is limited by climate in the Middle East and by 

infrastructure deficiencies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 29 percent 

of the increase in world rice trade between 2009 and 2018. Iraq and Saudi Arabia account for 

most of the increase in imports by the Middle East. 

 The Central America and Caribbean region is projected to expand imports over the next decade, 

increasing almost 0.5 million tons to more than 2.1 million by 2018. Population growth and 

rising per capita incomes boost rice consumption and raise this region’s imports. 

 The EU will remain a major market for rice, although import growth will be modest. 

Consumption growth will be driven by a larger immigrant population. North American imports 

will also expand over the next decade, with both total and per capita consumption rising. 

 Imports by the former Soviet Union are projected to decline as a result of strong production 

growth and stagnant demand. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 83

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 India

 China

 Thailand

 Pakistan

 Vietnam

 South America

 United States

Global rice exports

Million metric tons

Asia remains the largest rice-exporting region throughout the projection period. 

 Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s largest rice-exporting countries, account for half of all 

rice exports and more than 40 percent of the growth in world exports in the coming decade. 

Thailand’s exports increase 2.6 million tons to more than 12 million by 2018. Both area 

and yield are projected to increase in Thailand. Vietnam’s export expansion is smaller, 

rising from 5.1 to 5.6 million tons. Per capita consumption declines for both exporters. 

 Pakistan is currently the world’s third-leading rice exporter and exports are projected to 

slightly increase over the next decade to 3.8 million tons by 2018. Pakistan has sharply 

boosted rice area and production in the past few years. In 2008, Pakistan gained markets 

due to India’s ban on exports of non-basmati rice. Pakistan’s agricultural sector is 

confronting a growing water shortage and a decaying infrastructure, limiting production 

and export gains. 

 The United States is currently the fourth-largest rice-exporting country. The United States 

is expected to increase exports from 3.3 million tons early in the projections to 4.2 million 

by 2018. A slight area expansion, continued yield growth, and slow growth in domestic 

use result in larger exportable supplies. The United States becomes the third-largest 

exporting country early in the projection period. 

 India has typically been the third- or fourth-largest rice exporter since the mid-1990s, 

although export levels have been rather volatile, primarily due to fluctuating stock levels 

and government policies. India’s exports are currently limited by a ban on non-basmati 

sales. Exports are projected to increase about 700,000 tons to 3.6 million by 2018 as 

production growth outpaces consumption and India’s current export ban is removed. 

India’s production is constrained by slow progress in raising average yields. 

 China, the sixth-largest rice-exporting country, is projected to raise exports by 1.1 million 

tons to 2.8 million tons by 2018. The increase in exports is primarily due to a decline in 

per capita consumption. Little change in production or total disappearance is expected. 

Higher yields are projected to offset declining area. Reductions in per capita consumption, 

a result of continued diet diversification resulting from higher incomes, are expected to 

offset population growth. 

 Australia virtually exits the rice export market due to competing demands for water and, 

thus, uncertainty regarding availability of irrigation water. 
84 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 China

 Latin America 1/

 Southeast Asia 2/

 South Asia 3/

 EU, FSU, & OE 4/

 East Asia

Global cotton imports

Million bales

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3/ Bangladesh, 

India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 

With global cotton consumption growing dramatically, international trade has become increasingly 

important in world cotton markets. During the last decade, world consumption climbed at a 

3.8-percent annual growth rate while world trade rose 4.2 percent a year. Not only has textile trade 

liberalization boosted world cotton demand through increased efficiency, but geographic shifts in 

mill use of cotton have increased the role of trade in meeting the global textile industry’s need for 

cotton. Trade’s importance has rebounded in recent years as the textile sectors in China and 

Pakistan have grown substantially faster than their domestic cotton production. Imports are 

expected to increase in a number of other Asian countries as well. Asia’s share of world cotton 

imports is projected to rise from less than 72 percent in 2009 to more than 76 percent in 2018. 

 The textile industries in China, India, and Pakistan have been the major beneficiaries of 

textile trade liberalization as a result of the elimination of Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) 

quotas in 2005. 

 China has been importing record amounts of cotton as its textile industry’s growth rapidly 

accelerated with a booming economy and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. 

Both its textile industry and its cotton imports are expected to grow more slowly than the 

rapid increases since 2001. However, during the next decade, the increase in cotton 

imports by China is projected to account for half of the global increase in cotton imports. 

 Pakistan has emerged as a major importer in recent years and is projected to be the world’s 

second largest importing country during the next 10 years. 

 In recent years, Turkey’s textile industry has benefited from favorable trade access to the 

EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA quotas 

gives lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Turkey’s cotton 

imports are projected to rise slowly over the next 10 years, but not enough to keep its share 

of world trade from falling slightly. 

 The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all steadily reduce their cotton imports as textile 

trade reforms and/or higher wages in these countries drive textile production to countries 

with lower wages and other costs. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 85

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Other

 South America

 United States

 Sub-Saharan Africa

 Australia

 India

 Former Soviet Union

Global cotton exports

Million bales

Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to countries with favorable 

resource endowments and technology. Traditional producers with large land bases suitable for 

cotton production continue to benefit from post-MFA trade patterns. Such producer/exporter 

regions include the United States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Brazil. The importance of technology 

has been highlighted by the impact of India’s rapid adoption of genetically modified cotton, nearly 

all Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. 

 The United States continues as the world’s leading cotton exporter throughout the 

projections. Exports climb 32 percent to more than 15 million bales by 2018/19, reaching 

one-third of overall world trade. However, the U.S. share of world exports is still well 

below the 40-percent average realized for the first half of this decade. 

 The Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union have been the principal U.S. 

competitors since the early 1990s. However, government policies in Central Asia 

promoting investment in textiles have resulted, to some extent, in exports of textile 

products rather than exports of raw cotton. Furthermore, the region’s cotton production is 

expected to grow only slowly. 

 Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports rose rapidly during much of the last decade, but since 2006, 

low world prices and the strength of the Euro have led to lower output and exports by West 

Africa. The 2008 planted area in the member countries of the Communaute Financiere 

Africaine (CFA) has fallen to its lowest level since just after the 1994 devaluation of the 

CFA franc. Some rebound in output is expected as these economies develop and as Bt 

cotton is adopted by the region’s producers. The region’s exports are projected to rise 

more than 20 percent during the next 10 years. 

 Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of hybrid cotton containing the 

Bt gene, have raised India’s production and exports in recent years. Yield growth is 

projected to continue as the area planted to Bt cotton expands. The increase in cotton 

output is expected to enable India to increase domestic textile production and remain a 

major cotton exporter and competitor to the United States in world markets. 
86 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Meat exports 1/ 

Million metric tons

1/ Major exporters. 

Beef and veal

Pork

Poultry

The growth in world per capita meat consumption slows during the coming decade to about a third 

of a percent per year. Still, meat shipments from major exporters trend upwards at 1.3 percent per 

year. Growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat average 1.4, 

1.7, and 0.9 percent per year, respectively, between 2009 and 2018. During this period, exports 

rise 0.9 million tons for beef, 0.9 million for pork, and 0.7 million for poultry. Rising per capita 

incomes combined with population growth in a number of countries are the driving forces behind 

the projected growth in global meat demand. 

 Canadian beef exports are projected to rise slowly during the next decade. However, they do 

not reach the record set in 2002, prior to the Canada’s first case of Bovine spongiform 

encephalopathy (BSE). 

 In response to Russia’s policies to stimulate meat production, net imports of meat decline 

slowly during the coming decade. 

 China became a pork net importer in 2008 due to swine disease problems and imports for the 

Olympics. China is projected to resume being a small net exporter within several years. 

 EU beef exports remain well below the annual WTO limit on subsidized exports (817,000 tons) 

as policy changes lower beef production. These factors limit the EU’s competitiveness in 

international markets. 

 Argentine beef exports declined sharply after the peak in 2005. Export taxes on beef and 

changes in other policies have made Argentina’s exports less competitive. Beef exports are 

projected to continue their downward trend as growth in consumption exceeds production. 

 The projections assume no changes in the set of countries recognizing Brazil as free of footand-mouth disease (FMD), thus limiting Brazil’s ability to compete in some markets for pork. 

However, exports from Brazil’s expanding pork sector are expected to be competitive in pricesensitive markets such as Russia and Asian countries other than Japan and South Korea. 

 Canada is projected to remain the world’s third largest pork exporter. 

 During the coming decade, Brazil is expected to continue to be the largest exporter of poultry 

products, bolstered by low production costs and competitive export prices. 

 U.S poultry meat exports are projected to increase, due in part to the U.S. dollar’s low level 

relative to the early 2000s. 
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 87

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Russia

 East Asia

 N. Africa & M. East

 European Union 2/

 Canada & Mexico

 United States

Beef imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Beef imports by major importers expand nearly 1 million tons (19 percent) between 2009 and 

2018. Traditionally, developed countries were the primary importers of beef. However, Brazil has 

become a large exporter of lower priced grass-fed beef that is imported by lower income countries. 

The projections assume gradual recovery of U.S. exports to South Korea and Japan. 

 Grain-fed beef imports are projected to rise slowly in higher income countries. U.S. beef 

exports to these countries are projected to rebuild over the next 10 years. 

 Rapid import growth is projected for a number of middle-income countries in northern 

Africa and the Middle East. Faster growth in population and per capita incomes stimulate 

demand. 

 U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use 

in ground beef and processed products, rise slightly through the period. Also, strong Asian 

imports of beef enable Australia and New Zealand to maintain significant levels of exports 

over the projection period. 

 After declining in 2009, Mexico is projected to increase beef imports. Much of Mexico’s 

imports are of higher valued grain-fed beef from the United States. 

 The projections assume that Russia’s tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef, first imposed in 

2003, remains in effect until 2009. In the longer run, the growth in Russia’s beef imports 

resumes as rising consumer demand outpaces gains in domestic production. Russia 

remains a large market for EU and South American beef exports. In recent years, Russia 

has imported more beef from Uruguay, Paraguay, and Australia as shipments from 

Argentina have declined. 
88 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Mexico

 East Asia

 Russia

 China & Hong Kong

 United States

Pork imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

The major pork importers are projected to increase trade by about 500,000 tons (11 percent) 

between 2009 and 2018. 

 Mexican pork imports increase more than 190,000 tons (36 percent) between 2009 and 

2018, making Mexico one of the fastest growing pork importers. Increases in income and 

population are the primary drivers of Mexico’s increasing demand for pork. Mexico 

accounts for more than a third of the growth in global pork trade during the coming decade. 

 Some higher income countries in East Asia increase pork imports to satisfy demand for 

selected cuts of pork, especially pork bellies. The increase in South Korea’s imports 

accounts for nearly one-fourth of the increase in world pork imports during the projections. 

 As with beef, the projections assume the TRQ that Russia imposed for pork in 2003 

remains in effect until 2009. Although the TRQ initially lowered pork imports, Russian 

imports of competitively priced pork from the EU and Brazil have risen as demand growth 

continues to exceed Russian pork production gains. During the last half of the projection 

period, Russia’s policies to stimulate grain and livestock production are projected to cause 

pork imports to begin to decline. 

 In China, increasing incomes boost per capita pork consumption and raise imports in the 

projections. Although China’s pork production and exports have declined since 2006 due, 

in part, to swine disease problems, they are projected to resume growth within the next 

couple of years. The country resumes being a small net exporter for the rest of the 

projection period. Hong Kong’s pork imports are expected to rise steadily during the 

coming decade.
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 89

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

 Russia

 Other N Afr. & M. East

 European Union 2/

 East Asia

 China & Hong Kong

 Saudi Arabia

 Mexico

Poultry imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

2/ EU-27 excludes intra-trade after 2002, EU-15 intra-trade before 2003, Slovenia before 1992. 

Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by about 0.7 million tons 

(11 percent) from 2009 to 2018. Declines in imports by Russia, non-EU Europe, and Japan are 

more than offset by large increases in imports by the rest of the world. 

 Poultry imports by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the North Africa and 

Middle East region now account for 35 percent of major trader imports and are projected to 

rise more than imports by all other countries combined. Economic and population growth 

will boost demand. Ongoing animal disease concerns in a number of countries are 

expected to slow growth in domestic production and increase demand for imports. 

 Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and a number of 

Central American and Caribbean countries. Poultry products remain relatively less 

expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry 

production continues to increase, but lags rising consumer demand, and imports rise nearly 

140,000 tons (21 percent) from 2009-2018. 

 Russia’s poultry imports decline during the projections, but it remains the world’s largest 

poultry importer. Policies that reduce the poultry TRQ and stimulate grain production 

boost poultry production and restrain poultry imports. Slower growth in per capita income 

and consumption of poultry also reduce the need for imports. 

 South Korea’s imports of poultry meat rise more than 75 percent during the coming decade. 

Although imports start from a low base level, increasing per capita consumption combined 

with environmental restrictions on expanding production boost imports. 

 Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries such as Thailand and 

China have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products. Due to their higher 

costs, these cooked poultry products will be marketed to developed or high-income 

countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. 

 China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production, 

while the country’s poultry imports and exports each grow by about 100,000 tons. 
90 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 31. Coarse grains trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 Former Soviet Union1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

 Other Europe 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

 European Union2 19.8 2.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3

 North Africa & Middle East 30.6 33.4 33.3 33.4 34.1 34.9 35.9 36.7 37.5 38.3 39.4 40.4

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9

 Japan 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6

 South Korea 9.4 7.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6

 Taiwan 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3

 China 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7

 Other Asia & Oceania 4.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9

 Mexico 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.7

 Central America & Caribbean 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5

 Brazil 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

 Other South America 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3

 Other foreign4 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3

United States 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Total trade 126.7 110.1 114.1 114.7 116.5 118.5 120.8 123.2 125.3 127.8 130.2 132.7

Exporters

 European Union2 4.6 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7

 China 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Argentina 17.0 12.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5

 Australia 4.0 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0

 Canada 6.5 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2

 Republic of South Africa 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0

 Other Europe 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

 Former Soviet Union1 5.4 12.5 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.8

 Other foreign 16.4 13.9 15.7 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5

 United States 69.9 52.4 54.9 55.6 56.3 57.1 58.0 58.9 59.8 60.7 61.6 62.4

Percent

U.S. trade share 55.1 47.6 48.2 48.5 48.3 48.2 48.0 47.8 47.7 47.5 47.3 47.1

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 91

Table 32. Corn trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 European Union1 13.5 2.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

 Former Soviet Union2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

 Egypt 4.2 4.3 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3

 Algeria 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9

 Morocco 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1

 Iran 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

 Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3

 Turkey 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

 Other N. Africa & Middle East 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3

 Japan 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5

 South Korea 9.3 7.2 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

 Taiwan 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

 China 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5

 Indonesia 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0

 Malaysia 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3

 Other Asia & Oceania 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6

 Canada 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5

 Mexico 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5

 Central America & Caribbean 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5

 Brazil 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Other South America 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 Other foreign4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

 United States 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Total trade 98.1 81.9 86.8 86.8 88.0 89.4 91.0 92.9 94.5 96.3 98.2 100.1

Exporters

 European Union1 0.5 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4

 China 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Argentina 15.0 10.5 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9

 Brazil 7.0 9.0 10.6 7.7 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.1

 Republic of South Africa 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9

 Other Europe 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

 Former Soviet Union2 2.2 3.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9

 Other foreign 8.9 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8

 United States 61.9 48.3 50.8 51.4 52.1 52.7 53.3 54.0 54.6 55.2 55.9 56.5

Percent

U.S. trade share 63.0 58.9 58.5 59.2 59.2 59.0 58.6 58.1 57.8 57.3 56.9 56.5

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
92 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 33. Sorghum trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 Japan 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

 Mexico 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9

 North Africa & Middle East 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 South America 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Sub-Saharan Africa1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Other2 6.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Total trade 9.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0

Exporters

 Argentina 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Australia 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Brazil 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

 Other foreign 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 United States 7.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3

Percent

U.S. trade share 76.8 71.8 70.7 69.8 69.4 69.5 71.4 72.5 73.9 74.4 75.4 76.1

1/ Includes the Republic of South Africa.

2/ EU-27 and the rest of the world. Excludes intra-EU trade. Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 34. Barley trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 Former Soviet Union1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Japan 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Taiwan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 China 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1

 European Union2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Latin America3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

 Algeria 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Saudi Arabia 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

 Morocco 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

 Tunisia 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

 Republic of South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Iran 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

 Other N. Africa & M. East 1.5 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5

 Other foreign4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

 United States 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Total trade 16.0 19.8 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.2

Exporters

 European Union2 3.9 5.0 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.9

 Australia 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

 Canada 3.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4

 Russia 1.0 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

 Ukraine 1.0 5.5 4.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7

 Other Former Soviet Union5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9

 Turkey 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

 Other foreign 1.9 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

 United States 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Percent

U.S. trade share 5.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5

1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Includes Mexico.

4/ Includes unaccounted.

5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Exports, million metric tons

Imports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 93

Table 35. Wheat trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 Algeria 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4

 Egypt 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5

 Morocco 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9

 Iran 0.2 4.5 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

 Iraq 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

 Tunisia 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

 Other N. Africa & Middle East 9.5 11.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1

 Sub-Saharan Africa1 10.0 12.3 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2

 Mexico 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3

 Central America & Caribbean 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9

 Brazil 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5

 Other South America 6.0 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2

 European Union2 6.9 5.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6

 Other Europe 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0

 Former Soviet Union3 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5

 Japan 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4

 South Korea 3.1 4.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

 Philippines 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6

 Indonesia 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3

 China 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Bangladesh 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

 Malaysia 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6

 Thailand 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5

 Vietnam 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

 Pakistan 1.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

 Other Asia & Oceania 8.8 7.7 7.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6

 Other foreign4 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2

 United States 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4

Total trade 114.9 124.3 119.8 121.6 124.2 126.7 129.1 131.9 134.4 136.6 139.1 141.6

Exporters

 European Union2 12.2 19.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0

 Canada 16.1 18.5 17.8 17.1 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8

 Australia 7.5 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8

 Argentina 10.5 5.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8

 Russia 12.2 14.0 13.0 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7

 Ukraine 1.2 9.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9

 Other Former Soviet Union5 8.4 5.6 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5

 Other Europe 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

 India 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 China 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6

 Turkey 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

 Other foreign 7.4 8.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7

 United States 34.4 27.2 27.2 27.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3

Percent

U.S. trade share 29.9 21.9 22.7 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.1 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.7

1/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

3/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

4/ Includes unaccounted which can be negative.

5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
94 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 36. Soybean trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 European Union1 15.1 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.0

 Japan 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2

 South Korea 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

 Taiwan 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

 Mexico 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

 Former Soviet Union2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 Other Europe 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 China 37.8 36.0 37.3 40.1 42.8 45.2 47.6 49.9 52.3 54.7 57.0 59.4

 Malaysia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Indonesia 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7

 Other 12.8 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.0

 Total imports 79.4 77.9 79.4 82.5 85.8 88.7 91.6 94.5 97.3 100.2 103.1 106.0

Exporters

 Argentina 13.8 15.2 13.9 15.6 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.3 16.3

 Brazil 25.4 25.7 24.1 24.4 26.5 29.3 31.9 34.6 36.9 39.5 41.6 43.7

 Other South America 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3

 China 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Other foreign 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8

 United States 31.6 27.8 32.0 32.7 32.7 32.1 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.4 32.7

 Total exports 79.4 77.9 79.4 82.5 85.8 88.7 91.6 94.5 97.3 100.2 103.1 106.0

Percent

U.S. trade share 39.8 35.6 40.3 39.6 38.1 36.2 35.1 33.9 32.9 32.0 31.4 30.8

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 95

Table 37. Soybean meal trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 European Union1 23.9 22.8 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4

 Former Soviet Union2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8

 Other Europe 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

 Canada 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

 Japan 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

 Southeast Asia 9.1 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0

 Latin America 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3

 North Africa & Middle East 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0

 Other 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4

 Total imports 55.2 55.4 58.8 60.7 62.6 64.6 66.5 68.4 70.2 72.1 74.0 75.9

Exporters

 Argentina 26.4 27.7 30.5 31.4 32.5 33.8 35.0 36.4 37.8 39.0 40.4 41.9

 Brazil 12.1 12.5 12.6 13.6 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 18.9

 Other South America 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5

 China 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 India 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0

 European Union1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 Other foreign 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 United States 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9

 Total exports 55.3 56.1 58.8 60.7 62.6 64.6 66.5 68.4 70.2 72.1 74.0 75.9

Percent

U.S. trade share 15.1 13.9 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.5

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

Table 38. Soybean oil trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 China 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4

 India 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6

 Other Asia 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7

 Latin America 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

 North Africa & Middle East 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7

 European Union1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3

 Former Soviet Union & Other Europe2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Other 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

 Total imports 10.7 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1

Exporters

 Argentina 5.7 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1

 Brazil 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8

 European Union1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

 Other foreign 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

 United States 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

 Total exports 10.8 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1

Percent

U.S. trade share 12.5 10.1 7.9 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.7

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Includes intra-FSU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
96 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 39. Rice trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 Canada 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40

 Mexico 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.75

 Central America/Caribbean 1.38 1.53 1.65 1.66 1.74 1.81 1.90 1.96 2.02 2.06 2.10 2.13

 Brazil 0.50 0.60 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.82 0.80 0.76 0.70 0.63 0.56

 Other South America 0.45 0.53 0.60 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

 European Union1 1.10 1.20 1.17 1.21 1.25 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.42 1.45

 Former Soviet Union2 0.39 0.40 0.46 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.28

 Other Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12

 Bangladesh 1.80 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30

 China 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.27 0.35 0.41 0.46 0.53 0.61

 Japan 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68

 South Korea 0.25 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41

 Indonesia 0.50 0.80 0.79 0.92 1.27 1.67 1.77 1.90 2.01 2.20 2.39 2.56

 Malaysia 0.80 0.88 0.94 0.94 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.22

 Philippines 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.80 2.75 2.82 2.89 3.03 3.07 3.14 3.24 3.33

 Other Asia & Oceania 2.33 2.32 2.28 2.32 2.31 2.36 2.40 2.42 2.45 2.47 2.50 2.54

 Iraq 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24

 Iran 0.90 0.90 1.24 0.93 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91

 Saudi Arabia 0.96 1.02 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.53

 Other N. Africa & M. East 1.82 1.69 1.79 1.78 1.83 1.88 1.92 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.08 2.13

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 6.38 6.20 6.53 6.99 7.27 7.47 7.70 7.90 8.10 8.30 8.50 8.70

 Republic of South Africa 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99

 Other foreign4 3.54 2.78 2.53 2.64 2.34 1.82 1.84 1.80 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.90

 United States 0.76 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.90 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.10 1.14

 Total imports 30.34 29.56 30.79 31.60 32.36 33.09 33.94 34.85 35.75 36.56 37.38 38.18

Exporters

 Australia 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Argentina 0.52 0.55 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.72 0.75

 Other South America 1.67 1.52 1.44 1.48 1.43 1.44 1.47 1.53 1.61 1.65 1.70 1.76

 European Union1 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17

 China 1.00 1.30 1.69 1.89 2.07 2.30 2.51 2.59 2.65 2.72 2.76 2.79

 India 4.10 2.50 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.10 3.25 3.45 3.65

 Pakistan 3.00 4.00 3.48 3.53 3.52 3.51 3.50 3.50 3.55 3.65 3.70 3.80

 Thailand 10.00 9.50 9.86 10.10 10.40 10.60 10.90 11.40 11.75 12.00 12.26 12.50

 Vietnam 4.75 5.20 5.10 5.15 5.20 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.60

 Egypt 0.45 0.80 0.75 0.78 0.90 0.95 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.12 1.15

 Other foreign 1.26 0.89 1.49 1.56 1.61 1.64 1.67 1.69 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.79

 United States 3.42 3.13 3.33 3.45 3.58 3.74 3.87 3.97 4.06 4.14 4.22 4.22

 Total exports 30.34 29.56 30.79 31.60 32.36 33.09 33.94 34.85 35.75 36.56 37.38 38.18

Percent

U.S. trade share 11.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Excludes Republic of South Africa

4/ Includes unaccounted.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 97

Table 40. All cotton trade long-term projections

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Importers

 European Union1 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2

 Former Soviet Union2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

 Indonesia 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6

 Thailand 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9

 India 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8

 Brazil 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Other Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

 Other Asia & Oceania 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9

 Pakistan 3.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

 Japan 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 South Korea 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

 China 11.5 10.5 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7

 Taiwan 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7

 Turkey 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8

 Mexico 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

 Other 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3

 Total imports 38.0 35.2 37.2 38.1 38.7 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.7

Exporters

 Former Soviet Union2 6.6 5.9 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7

 Australia 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9

 Argentina 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

 Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

 India 7.4 5.9 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.6

 Egypt 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6

 Brazil 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.9

 Other Latin America 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

 Sub-Saharan Africa3 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3

 Other foreign 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

 United States 13.7 13.0 11.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7

 Total exports 38.7 35.2 37.2 38.1 38.7 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.2 42.2 43.0 43.7

Percent

U.S. trade share 35.3 36.9 29.9 28.4 29.3 30.7 31.4 32.1 32.8 33.0 33.3 33.7

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade.

3/ Includes Republic of South Africa.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, million bales

Exports, million bales
98 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

Table 41. Beef trade long-term projections

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers

 Japan 686 675 690 699 694 700 706 711 701 698 689 693

 South Korea 308 320 340 344 348 357 362 368 373 377 381 385

 Taiwan 102 100 95 106 107 107 108 107 108 108 109 110

 Philippines 153 175 165 175 187 202 217 233 248 261 275 289

 European Union1 641 400 420 432 415 407 400 393 391 387 384 378

 Russia 1,030 1,010 1,030 925 890 833 861 873 909 950 991 1,031

 Other Europe 88 103 95 111 109 107 102 99 101 103 104 106

 Egypt 293 225 240 257 271 276 278 280 281 283 287 290

 Mexico 403 440 435 468 492 532 553 565 574 582 587 588

 Canada 242 260 265 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272

 United States 1,384 1,131 1,213 1,604 1,632 1,657 1,669 1,694 1,718 1,742 1,765 1,776

 Major importers 5,330 4,839 4,988 5,393 5,417 5,450 5,528 5,595 5,676 5,763 5,843 5,919

Exporters

 Australia 1,400 1,386 1,350 1,320 1,314 1,307 1,314 1,319 1,328 1,338 1,351 1,365

 New Zealand 496 515 497 492 486 488 491 494 497 500 503 506

 Other Asia 938 1,032 974 968 986 1,007 1,037 1,070 1,101 1,131 1,160 1,182

 European Union1 140 100 100 103 108 109 110 108 107 110 112 114

 Argentina 534 400 480 444 397 369 354 344 338 333 327 323

 Brazil 2,189 1,925 2,015 2,098 2,171 2,225 2,272 2,310 2,345 2,377 2,406 2,435

 Canada 457 465 470 486 478 484 493 503 518 534 548 560

 United States 650 851 934 868 912 958 1,012 1,059 1,107 1,157 1,212 1,268

 Major exporters 6,804 6,674 6,820 6,777 6,852 6,947 7,081 7,207 7,340 7,481 7,619 7,753

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Table 42. Pork trade long-term projections

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers

 Japan 1,248 1,210 1,242 1,243 1,239 1,231 1,227 1,226 1,227 1,232 1,233 1,228 

 China 480 360 185 200 215 230 238 245 254 266 277 198

 Hong Kong 367 385 400 412 422 434 446 455 464 473 481 302

 South Korea 460 455 466 479 497 509 528 539 553 565 575 447

 Russia 940 960 992 1,005 1,013 894 1,012 1,006 988 970 959 947 

 Mexico 540 535 558 571 596 616 636 655 676 701 726 451

 Canada 215 225 230 234 237 239 240 241 242 243 243 171

 United States 378 386 431 454 465 477 488 439 499 511 522 533 

 Major importers 4,628 4,112 4,548 4,504 4,593 4,676 4,744 4,807 4,849 4,902 4,961 5,012 

Exporters

 Brazil 675 705 702 708 717 729 746 757 773 787 798 730

 Canada 1,075 1,033 1,080 1,029 1,015 1,017 1,022 1,019 1,016 1,016 1,020 1,025 

 Mexico 85 90 93 96 99 103 106 110 113 117 121 80

 European Union1 1,525 1,285 1,515 1,539 1,584 1,629 1,659 1,701 1,725 1,768 1,814 1,852 

 China 198 170 183 225 247 265 275 285 295 305 315 350

 United States 2,300 1,426 2,043 2,083 2,125 2,167 2,211 2,255 2,300 2,332 2,364 2,396 

 Major exporters 5,858 4,904 5,603 5,628 5,754 5,876 5,990 6,102 6,194 6,298 6,407 6,506 

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight
USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009 99

Table 43. Poultry trade long-term projections1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Importers

 Russia 1,297 1,315 1,270 1,208 1,185 1,153 1,108 1,057 1,020 981 932 876

 European Union2 743 785 800 804 808 812 816 820 824 828 833 837

 Other Europe 37 37 37 31 29 25 22 18 13 9 8 8

 Canada 135 142 148 149 151 153 155 156 158 160 162 164

 Mexico 595 632 661 638 660 674 685 701 728 752 777 799

 Central America/Caribbean 205 280 300 316 308 304 297 309 330 352 359 365

 Japan 696 680 680 679 675 677 672 669 667 666 665 662

 Hong Kong 215 240 250 251 253 255 258 260 262 265 267 270

 China 512 500 510 528 538 544 553 565 578 590 604 619

 South Korea 60 70 70 72 79 84 90 96 101 108 116 124

 Saudi Arabia 470 490 500 502 489 497 513 528 541 557 572 586

 Other N. Africa & M. East 850 1,336 1,347 1,336 1,403 1,448 1,531 1,615 1,703 1,796 1,896 2,006

 Major importers 5,815 6,507 6,573 6,513 6,576 6,625 6,698 6,794 6,927 7,062 7,190 7,314

Exporters

 European Union2 749 745 730 625 621 605 589 575 586 598 614 635

 Brazil 3,099 3,540 3,895 3,880 3,915 3,938 3,998 4,070 4,154 4,241 4,331 4,414

 China 358 275 283 293 306 321 332 343 354 366 375 383

 Thailand 296 350 360 336 330 345 360 381 395 406 417 430

 United States 2,926 3,312 3,134 2,901 2,967 3,008 3,057 3,101 3,150 3,201 3,239 3,276

 Major exporters 7,428 8,222 8,402 8,037 8,139 8,217 8,336 8,470 8,639 8,811 8,976 9,136

1/ Broilers and turkeys only.

2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade.

The projections were completed in November 2008.

Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook
100 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2009

List of Tables 

Page 

Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions........................................................................................... 15 

Table 2. Global real GDP growth assumptions ..................................................................................... 16 

Table 3. Population growth assumptions............................................................................................... 17 

Table 4. Summary policy variables for major field crops, 2008-2018.................................................. 30 

Table 5. Conservation Reserve Program acreage assumptions ............................................................. 30 

Table 6. Planted and harvested acreage for major field crops, long-term projections .......................... 31 

Table 7. Selected supply, use, and price variables for major field crops, long-term projections .......... 32 

Table 8. U.S. corn long-term projections .............................................................................................. 33 

Table 9. U.S. sorghum long-term projections ....................................................................................... 34 

Table 10. U.S. barley long-term projections ........................................................................................... 35 

Table 11. U.S. oats long-term projections............................................................................................... 36 

Table 12. U.S. wheat long-term projections............................................................................................ 37 

Table 13. U.S. soybean and products long-term projections................................................................... 38 

Table 14. U.S. rice long-term projections, rough basis ........................................................................... 39 

Table 15. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections................................................................................ 40 

Table 16. U.S. sugar long-term projections............................................................................................. 41 

Table 17. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years.............................. 42 

Table 18. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years.............................. 43 

Table 19. Per capita meat consumption, retail weight............................................................................. 49 

Table 20. Consumer expenditures for meats ........................................................................................... 49 

Table 21. Beef long-term projections...................................................................................................... 50 

Table 22. Pork long-term projections...................................................................................................... 51 

Table 23. Young chicken long-term projections ..................................................................................... 51 

Table 24. Turkey long-term projections.................................................................................................. 52 

Table 25. Egg long-term projections ....................................................................................................... 52 

Table 26. Dairy long-term projections .................................................................................................... 53 

Table 27. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections.................................................. 60 

Table 28. Summary of U.S. agricultural trade long-term projections, fiscal years ................................. 61 

Table 29. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections ..................... 62 

Table 30. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections ......................... 63 

Table 31. Coarse grains trade long-term projections............................................................................... 90 

Table 32. Corn trade long-term projections............................................................................................. 91 

Table 33. Sorghum trade long-term projections...................................................................................... 92 

Table 34. Barley trade long-term projections.......................................................................................... 92 

Table 35. Wheat trade long-term projections .......................................................................................... 93 

Table 36. Soybean trade long-term projections....................................................................................... 94 

Table 37. Soybean meal trade long-term projections.............................................................................. 95 

Table 38. Soybean oil trade long-term projections.................................................................................. 95 

Table 39. Rice trade long-term projections ............................................................................................. 96 

Table 40. All cotton trade long-term projections .................................................................................... 97 

Table 41. Beef trade long-term projections............................................................................................. 98 

Table 42. Pork trade long-term projections............................................................................................. 98 

Table 43. Poultry trade long-term projections......................................................................................... 99