NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 30

THE TAMPA BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM 

(TBOFS): MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND SKILL 

ASSESSMENT 

Silver Spring, Maryland 

March 2011 

noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

National Ocean Service 

Coast Survey Development Laboratory 
Office of Coast Survey 

National Ocean Service 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

U.S. Department of Commerce

The Office of Coast Survey (OCS) is the Nation’s only official chartmaker. As the oldest 

United States scientific organization, dating from 1807, this office has a long history. 

Today it promotes safe navigation by managing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration’s (NOAA) nautical chart and oceanographic data collection and 

information programs. 

There are four components of OCS: 

The Coast Survey Development Laboratory develops new and efficient techniques 

to accomplish Coast Survey missions and to produce new and improved products 

and services for the maritime community and other coastal users. 

The Marine Chart Division acquires marine navigational data to construct and 

maintain nautical charts, Coast Pilots, and related marine products for the United 

States. 

The Hydrographic Surveys Division directs programs for ship and shore-based 

hydrographic survey units and conducts general hydrographic survey operations. 

The Navigational Services Division is the focal point for Coast Survey customer 

service activities, concentrating predominately on charting issues, fast-response 

hydrographic surveys, and Coast Pilot updates. 
NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 30 

THE TAMPA BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM 

(TBOFS): MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND SKILL 

ASSESSMENT 

Eugene Wei and Aijun Zhang 

Office of Coast Survey, Coast Survey Development Laboratory, 

Silver Spring, MD 

March 2011

noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

U. S. DEPARTMENT National Oceanic and National Ocean Service 

OF COMMERCE Atmospheric Administration David Kennedy 

Gary Locke, Dr. Jane Lubchenco Assistant Secretary 

Under Secretary Administrator 

 

Office of Coast Survey Coast Survey Development Laboratory 

Captain John Lowell, NOAA Mary Erickson 
ii 

NOTICE 

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an 

endorsement by NOAA. Use for publicity or advertising purposes of 

information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the 

tests of such products is not authorized. 
iii 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

LIST OF FIGURES...........................................................................................vi 

LIST OFTABLES.............................................................................................ix 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................x 

1. INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................1 

2. MODEL SYSTEM OVERVIEW..........................................................................3 

2.1. ROMS Hydrodynamic Model.......................................................................3 

 2.2. Model Grid...........................................................................................3 

 

3. MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION.....................................................7 

 3.1. Astronomical Tide Simulation.....................................................................7 

3.2. Model Hindcast Simulation.......................................................................14 

 3.2.1. Water Level and Current Velocity.........................................................16 

 3.2.2. Temperature and Salinity...................................................................19 

 3.3. Semi-Operational Nowcast/Forecast Simulation..............................................25 

4. SKILL ASSEESSMENT STATISTICS AND DATA................................................33 

 4.1. Skill Assessment Statistics........................................................................33 

 4.2. Tide Simulation Skills..............................................................................33 

 4.3. Hindcast Skills .....................................................................................36 

 4.4. Tidal Constituent Comparison...................................................................42 

 4.5. Semi-operational Nowcast/Forecast Skill Assessment........................................42 

SUMMARY....................................................................................................47 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS....................................................................................47 

REFERENCES...............................................................................................48 

APPENDIX A. ROMS CPPDEFS .........................................................................51 

A.1. Tide Simulation ..................................................................................51 

A.2. Hindcast Simulation..............................................................................52 

APPENDIX B. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR TIDES.............................55 

APPENDIX C. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR TIDAL CURRENT 

SPEED.......................................................................................59 

APPENDIX D. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST WATER 

LEVELS....................................................................................69 

APPENDIX E. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST CURRENT 

SPEED.....................................................................................73 
iv 

APPENDIX F. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST 

TEMPERATURE..........................................................................83 

APPENDIX G. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST 

 SALINITY..................................................................................91 

APPENDIX H. COMPARISON OF TIDAL CONSTITUENT AMPLITUDES AND EPOCHS FOR 

CURRENTS ..............................................................................93

APPENDIX I. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPERATIONAL 

WATER LEVELS .........................................................................95 

APPENDIX J. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPERATIONAL 

CURRENT SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS............................................99 

APPENDIX K. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPERATIONAL 

SURFACE TEMPERATURE..........................................................103 

APPENDIX L. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPERATIONAL 

SURFACE SALINITY.................................................................105 

 
v 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 1. Tampa Bay base map..........................................................................4 

Figure 2. Tampa Bay ROMS model grid..................................................................................5 

Figure 3.1. TOP water level gage station location map................................................8 

Figure 3.2. TOP current meter station location map....................................................9 

Figure 3.3. Tide elevation time series from tide simulation (black) compared with 

 harmonic predicted tides (red) for upper bay (left panel) and coastal and 

lower bay (right panel) stations..............................................................10 

Figure 3.4a. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity 

 time series for harmonically predicted simulated (black) and harmonically 

predicted (red) tidal currents at station C-02 (Egmont Key, Figure 3.2) for 

 observed bins 1, 5, 10, 16 and 2 ............................................................11 

Figure 3.4b. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity 

 time series for harmonically predicted (black) and model simulated (red) 

tidal at station C-04 (central bay navigation channel, Figure 3.2) for 

 observed bins 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 ...............................................................11 

Figure 3.4c. East (left panel) and north (lower panel) component of current velocity 

time series for harmonically predicted (black) and model simulated (red) 

tidal currents at station C-15 (central bay navigational channel, Figure 3.2) 

for observed bins 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7............................................................12 

Figure 3.4d. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity 

 time series for harmonically predicted (black) and model simulated (red) 

 tidal currents at station C-30 (navigation channel at central Bay, Figure 3.2) 

 for observed bins 1, 3, 5, and 7...............................................................12 

Figure 3.5. Averaged tidal currents over 30 days simulation (August, 1990). Left: 

 near surface. Right: Bottom................................................................13 

Figure 3.6. Major river inflows for synoptic hindcast simulation....................................15 

Figure 3.7. Water elevation at TOP stations; hindcasts (red) compares with 

observations (black) ...........................................................................16 

 
vi 

Figure 3.8a. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity 

time series at station C-02 (bay entrance).................................................17 

Figure 3.8b. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity 

time series at station C-04 (mid-bay).......................................................17 

Figure 3.8c. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity 

 time series at station C-15 (upper mid-bay)................................................18 

Figure 3.8d. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity 

 time series at station C-30 (upper bay) ..............................................................18 

Figure 3.9. TOP temperature and conductivity sensor locations.....................................19 

Figure 3.10a. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with 

observations (black) for stations near bay entrance area (See Figure 3.9 for 

station locations)............................................................................20 

Figure 3.10b. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with 

observations (black) near the center of the bay and Manatee Channel 

(See Figure 3.9 for station locations).....................................................21 

Figure 3.10c. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with 

observations (black) at Y-Cut channel and Hillsborough Bay 

(See Figure 3.9 for station locations).....................................................22 

Figure 3.10d. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with 

observations (black) at Old Tampa Bay (See Figure 3.9 

 for station locations) ......................................................................23 

Figure 3.11. Model simulated (red) near surface salinity time series with 

 observations (black) for stations from the entrance (02, S1, and 21) 

 to mid-bay (52 and 53) and upper bay (30, 46, and 34) (see Figure 3.9 

for station location).........................................................................24 

Figure 3.12. Schematic TBOFS run script and data flow chart......................................26 

Figure 3.13. Real-time observation locations for TBOFS semi-operational nowcasts 

and forecasts verification for surface temperature and salinity.......................27 

Figure 3.14. Water level comparison of observations (black) with semi-operational 

 nowcasts (red) and forecasts (blue) at 4 NOS real-time locations: 

 Mckay Bay Entrance, Old Port Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Port Manatee.........28 

 
vii 

Figure 3.15. Currents comparison of observations (black) with semi-operational 

 nowcasts (red) and forecasts (blue) at 2 NOS real-time locations: 

 Sunshine Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa.......................................26 

Figure 3.16. Observed (black) temperature time series with semi-operational 

 nowcasts (red) and forecasts (blue) at real-time locations: Buoy 

 42013 (NDBC), St. Petersburg (NOS), and Campbell Park and 

 Frog Creek (Terra Ceia Aquatic Preserve, via NBDC) for the period 

 from April 15 to July 14, 2010............................................................30 

Figure 3.17. Observed (black) temperature time series with semi-operational 

 nowcasts (red) and forecasts (blue) at real-time location Buoy 

42013 (NDBC) for the period from April 15 to July 14, 2010.......................31 

Figure 4.1. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

 of tide from tide simulation..............................................................34 

Figure 4.2. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of tidal current speed (at NOS tide prediction depth: 5 m below 

the surface or mid-depth) from tide simulation.....................................................35 

Figure 4.3. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of water level from hindcast simulation................................................................39 

Figure 4.4. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of current speed from hindcast simulation at NOS current prediction 

depth (5 m from the water surface or mid-depth).................................................40 

Figure 4.5. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of temperature from hindcast simulation...............................................................41 

Figure 4.6. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of salinity from hindcast simulation......................................................................42 

Figure 4.7. Tidal constituents (M2, O1, K1, N2, S2) comparison between 

observations and hindcast.....................................................................................43

Figure 4.8. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of water levels from semi-operational runs.............................................44 

Figure 4.9. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of current speed from semi-operational runs...........................................44 

Figure 4.10. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of temperature from semi-operational runs.............................................45 
viii 

Figure 4.11. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) 

of salinity from semi-operational runs.................................................45 
ix 

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Hindcast water level skill assessment statistics: RMSE (m), CF (%), 

 NOF (%), POF(%), and index of agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria 

X=15 cm....................................................................................................................36 

Table 2. Hindcast current speed skill assessment statistics: RMSE (m s-1), CF (%), 

NOF (%), and POF (%), and index of agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria 

 X=26 m s-1.......................................................................................37 

Table 3. Hindcast temperature skill assessment statistics: RMSE (0

C for temperature), 

CF (%), NOF (%), and POF (%) , and index agreement (SKILL). NOS error 

Criteria X=3 0

C.................................................................................................38 

Table 4. Hindcast salinity skill assessment statistics: RMSE (PSU), CF (%), 

NOF (%), and POF (%) , and index agreement (SKILL). NOS error 

criteria X=3.5 PSU..............................................................................39 
x 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS) has been developed based on a 

hydrodynamic model system, Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS, Haidvogel, 2008). The 

curvilinear model grid was constructed and populated with bathymetry obtained from NOS 

survey soundings. The model for TBOFS was calibrated and validated with observed data 

obtained from the NOS Tampa Bay Oceanography Project (TOP) survey in 1990 and 1991 

(Nowadly, 1992; Zervas, 1993). With carefully selected ROMS dynamic options, the model tide 

and hindcast simulations were conducted to obtain optimal model results. The tide simulation 

was carried out with astronomical tide predictions at model grid lateral open boundary. The 

hindcast simulation was conducted with forcings of: observation interpolated water levels at the 

lateral open boundary, atmospheric wind and heat flux analyses on the surface, and river. The 

tide and hindcast simulation skills were measured by NOS skill assessment software (Zhang, et. 

al., 2006). By comparing with observations, a set of performance statistics (Zhang et al., 2006) 

for variables of water level, current, temperature and salinity were obtained. Statistical 

parameters included in the NOS skill assessment procedures for operational forecast systems 

(Hess, 1997, Zhang et al., 2006) included in the following graphic presentations are Root Mean 

Squared Error (RMSE) and Central Frequency (CF) for hourly records, high and low water 

levels, and time of high and low water levels. The real-time nowcast/forecast was then set-up 

based the validated model and the nowcast/forecast skills were also examined before the system 

transition to operations. 

The skills are summarized as the followings (refer to Figures 4.1 – 4.10): 

Tide Simulations

For tide elevations, high and low tides (Figure 4.1): Central Frequency (CF) exceeds NOS 

criteria (90%); RMSE in the order of 5 cm; 

For times of high and low tide (Figure 4.1): CF about 70% to 80%; RMSE about 0.4 to 0.6 hour.. 

For tidal current speeds and amplitudes of maximum flood and ebb speeds (Figure 4.2): CF 

exceeds 90%; RMSE about 10 cm s-1. 

For times of tidal current maximum flood and ebb speeds (Figure 4.2): CF about 60%; RMSE 

about 0.4 to 0.7 hour. 

Hindcast Simulations

For water levels (Figure 4.3): CF near 90% or above; RMSE about 8 to 10 cm. 

For times of maximum and minimum water levels (Figure 4.3): CF about 60%; RMSE about 0.7 

hour. 

For current speeds and maximum and minimum current speeds (Figure 4.4): CF exceeds 90% 

mostly; RMSE on the order of 15 cm s-1. 

For times of current maximum flood and ebb speeds (Figure 4.4): CF about 60% to 70 %; RMSE 

about 0.8 to 1 hour. 

For temperature (Figure 4.5): all CF 100%; RMSE about 10

C. 

For salinity (Figure 4.6): all CF 100%; RMSE 0.6 PSU. 
xi 

Semi-operational Nowcasts/Forecasts

For water levels and current speed nowcasts and all forecast hours (Figures 4.8 and 4.9): CF near 

100%; RMSE 5 cm and 13 cm s-1. 

For surface temperature (Figure 4.10): CF 80 –92%; RMSE 1.5 – 2.5 0

C. 

For surface salinity (Figure 4.11): CF 100%; RMSE 0.5 PSU. 

 
xii 
- 1 - 

1. INTRODUCTION

This report documents the development of the hydrodynamic model for the Tampa Bay 

Operational Forecast System (TBOFS). The objective of TBOFS is to provide real time nowcast 

and forecast oceanographic conditions to mariners navigating in Tampa Bay, Florida as part of 

the NOS Tampa Bay PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System). 

As the largest estuary and the largest port in Florida, and the seventh largest U.S. commercial 

port in terms of tonnage handled, Tampa Bay (Figure 1) is a relatively shallow bay with an 

entrance to the West Florida shelf of the Gulf of Mexico. The average depth of the bay ranges 

from 2 m to 5 m except in the navigational channels which range from 10 m to 15 m. 

The Tampa Bay hydrodynamic circulation has been studied by many investigators. Galperin et 

al., (1991) studied density driven circulation in Tampa Bay using model simulations. Hess (1993) 

developed a model to provide tidal characteristics in Tampa Bay validated with observations. 

Tidal datums for Tampa Bay were also determined from a similar study (Hess, 2001, Hess and 

Bosley, 1991). Vincent et al., (2000) developed a nowcast/forecast system using the Estuarine 

and Coastal Ocean Model (ECOM) (Blumberg, 1990). Meyers et al., (2007) also studied 

Lagrangian residual currents using ECOM. Finally, Weisberg and Zheng (2006) studied general 

circulation of Tampa Bay using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (Chen et al., 2003) 

Model development procedures for TBOFS include the selection of a hydrodynamic model, 

model grid generation, and model calibration and validation with skill assessment software. Each 

procedure is described in detail in this document. 

 
- 2 - 

 
- 3 - 

2. MODEL SYSTEM OVERVIEW 

2.1. ROMS Hydrodynamic Model 

A well developed community ocean model, the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 

developed by Rutgers University (Haidvogel, et al., 2008), was selected as the hydrodynamic 

model for TBOFS. Employing a curvilinear coordinate grid in the horizontal and a terrain 

following sigma coordinate grid in the vertical, the model solves for water surface elevation, 

currents, salinity and temperature using the conservation of mass, momentum, and tracer 

equations. Depends on the application requirements, ROMS allows various combination of 

option selection for physical terms included and types of boundary condition. These options for 

TBOFS tide and hindcast simulations are listed in Appendix A. 

2.2. Model Grid 

The orthogonal model grid (Figure 2) was constructed with commercial software, DELFT3D. 

The grid was dimensioned 176 by 290 to cover Tampa Bay, Saratoga Bay, and the major rivers 

that flow into Tampa Bay leaving the south as the only open boundary lateral forcing. The grid 

also extends into offshore about 60 km so that the shelf and estuary dynamic exchange can be 

accurately simulated. The model grid resolution ranges from 1.2 km near the offshore open 

boundary to about 120 m along the navigation channels inside the Bay. There are 11 sigma levels 

in the vertical grid to adequately resolve flow and density structures. 
- 4 - 

Figure 1. Tampa Bay base map. 

 
- 5 - 

Figure 2. Tampa Bay ROMS model grid. 

 
- 6 - 

 
- 7 - 

3. MODEL RUN SCENARIO DEFINITION 

For TBOFS to provide accurate forecast guidance in the Tampa Bay estuary, the core 

hydrodynamic model ROMS needs to be calibrated with tide simulation and verified with 

hindcast simulation. The TBOFS operational test runs are then conducted on NCEP’s Centers of 

Computer System. The procedures of preparing initial and boundary forcing and conducting 

these runs are described and in each sub-section. 

3.1. Astronomical Tide Simulation

NOS conducted a two year circulation survey under the Tampa Bay Oceanographic Pject (TOP) 

for the period of 1990 to 1991 (Nowadly et al., 1992). Extensive oceanographic observations of 

water elevations, current velocities, salinity and temperatures were collected at the bay entrance 

and within the bay. The data collected were analyzed and synthesized by Zervas, et al., (1993). 

Maps of water levels and current measurement locations are shown in Figure 3.1 and 3.2. These 

data were used for model calibration and verification during the development of TBOFS. 

For tidal simulations, the offshore open boundary conditions are based on harmonic constants 

obtained from ADCIRC East Coast 2001 (Mukai et al, 2002) with adjustment using the NOS 

accepted harmonic constants at NOS tide gauge stations of Clearwater Beach and Venice Pier. 

Surface forcing and river inflows were not included. Several sensitivity experiments were 

conducted to find the best ROMS options of lateral open boundary conditions (Appendix A.1 for 

tide simulation and Appendix A.2 for hindcast simulation). For example, the following cppdef 

options are used in the tide and hindcast simulations: logarithmic z0 law of the wall scheme for 

bottom friction (z0b=0.005 m, ), reduced (no vertically integrated currents) south open boundary 

conditions, M2 Flather formulation, Mellor and Yamada 2.5 for turbulence formulation, and bulk 

flux parameterization for surface heat flux. The tide simulation was run from June 1, 1990 for a 

year. The model water levels and currents time series at survey stations (Figures 3.3 and 3.4) are 

compared with predictions from harmonic constants obtained from analyzing TOP data. 

Time Series Plots

Figure 3.3 shows a portion of the water level time series (from July 9 to July 20, 1990) for the 

model simulated tide at 16 stations with the tide predictions based on harmonically analyzed 

from TOP data. The transition from semi-diurnal to diurnal tide signal clearly demonstrates a 

strong mixed tide region in Tampa Bay. Agreement between model simulated and harmonically 

predicted tides reveals model simulated tide accuracy which is also presented in the skill 

assessment in Section 4 and in Appendix B. 

Figures 3.4a to 3.4d present the simulated and harmonically predicted tidal current speed 

component time series for stations C-02, C-04, C-15, and C-30. These stations are located from 

the Bay entrance (C-02) to mid- and upper-Bay along the main navigation channel toward the 

upper Bay (C-30). Current velocities at 5 observed bins through the water column are displayed 

to show velocity structure in the vertical. Opposite to the tide amplitude increases from the Bay 

entrance at Egmont Key toward the upper Bay, the current velocity decreases along the 

navigation channel toward the upper Bay due to shoaling effect caused by decreasing depths. 
- 8 - 

The model simulated current velocities are in good agreement with tidal predictions as shown in 

the time series plots as well as in Section 4 and Appendix C. 

Figure 3.1. TOP water level gage station location map. 
- 9 - 

Figure 3.2. TOP current meter station location map. 
- 10 - 

Figure 3.3. Tide elevation time series from tide simulation (black) compared with harmonic 

predicted tides (red) for upper bay (left panel) and coastal and lower bay (right 

panel) stations. 

 
- 11 - 

Figure 3.4a. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity time series 

for harmonically predicted simulated (black) and harmonically predicted (red) tidal 

currents at station C-02 (Egmont Key, Figure 3.2) for observed bins 1, 5, 10, 16 

and 20. 

Figure 3.4b. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity time series 

for harmonically predicted (black) and model simulated (red) tidal at station C-04 

(central bay navigation channel, Figure 3.2) for observed bins 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7. 
- 12 - 

Figure 3.4c. East (left panel) and north (lower panel) component of current velocity time series 

for harmonically predicted (black) and model simulated (red) tidal currents at 

station C-15 (central bay navigational channel, Figure 3.2) for observed bins 1, 3, 4, 

5, and 7. 

Figure 3.4d. East (left panel) and north (right panel) component of current velocity time series 

for harmonically predicted (black) and simulated (red) tidal currents at station C-30 

(navigation channel at central Bay, Figure 3.2) for observed bins 1, 3, 5, and 7. 
- 13 - 

Average Circulation

The mean tidal circulation residual over the Bay play an important role in dispersion 

characteristics over the Bay. Eco-system forecasts rely on the tidal residual circulation of the Bay. 

Tidal circulation residuals can be obtained by averaging tidal currents over a long period of time. 

Figure 3.5 shows the tidal current residuals near the surface (left panel) and at the bottom (right 

panel) layers over 30 days of the tidal simulation for August 1990. It is apparent that tidal 

residuals near the surface are much stronger than those at the bottom. The averaged tidal current 

fields are comparable with M2 residuals presented by Weisberg and Zheng (2006). Current 

residual circulation pattern and the order of magnitude for other months are similar to the month 

shown in Figure 3.5. 

Figure 3.5. Averaged tidal currents over 30 days simulation (August, 1990). Left: near surface. 

Right: bottom. 
- 14 - 

3.2. Model Hindcast Simulation 

The open boundary conditions for hindcast simulation were specified using the TOP survey data 

for water levels, temperature, and salinity at a single measurement location about 60 km offshore 

of Tampa Bay. Other locations of temperature and conductivity measurement are shown in 

Figure 3.9. The model was initialized with temperature and salinity fields generated from 

monthly measurements from the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County 

(EPCHC). 

Model parameters such as the bottom friction formulation and its coefficients obtained from the 

tidal simulation were kept invariant in this validation simulation. Three hourly atmospheric 

surface forcing variables, which include wind, sea level atmospheric air pressure, relative 

humidity, downward and upward short wave radiation, and downward long wave radiation, were 

obtained from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) provided by the Physical 

Sciences Division of NOAA’s Ocean and Atmospheric Research office 

(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). Initial model calibration indicated that excessive heat flux from 

NARR caused simulated surface temperatures to be about 2o

C warmer than observations. Net 

input heat flux for the synoptic hindcast simulation was therefore reduced by 10%. 

Averaged daily river fresh water inflows at 7 river basins from 12 rivers were specified using 

USGS measurements (Figure 3.6). Salinity was set to be zero, and river temperatures were 

specified from observed time series. 

The model was run for 15 months from May 31, 1990 to August 31, 1991. Simulated water 

levels, currents, temperature and salinity at TOP gage locations are compared with observations 

for model performance skill assessment. 

 
- 15 - 

Figure 3.6. Major river inflows for synoptic hindcast simulation. 
- 16 - 

3.2.1. Water Level and Current Velocity

Figure 3.7 shows model hindcast water level time series compared with observations at gauge 

stations inside the bay. Total water surface elevations from the hindcast simulation represented 

the non-tidal components well and therefore matched the observations better than those from the 

tidal simulation. Modeled hindcast velocities at all current meter stations were compared with 

observations and tidal current harmonic predictions. Velocity time series from 4 stations are 

shown in Figures 3.8a to 3.8d: C02 (Bay entrance near Egmont Key), C04 (main navigation 

channel), C15 (mid-bay), and C30 (near Old Tampa Bay). Mixed tide transition between semidiurnal and diurnal is shown clearly in the current velocity time series. Current amplitudes 

decrease from the bay entrance (C2) toward the upper bay (C30). In the vertical, similar to the 

tidal current vertical the velocity gradient is not significant, thus revealing a well-mixed shallow 

bay. 

Figure 3.7. Water elevation at TOP stations; hindcasts (red) compares with observations (black). 
- 17 - 

Figure 3.8a. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity time series at 

station C-02 (bay entrance). 

Figure 3.8b. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity time series at 

station C-04 (mid-bay). 
- 18 - 

Figure 3.8c. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity time series at 

station C-15 (upper mid-bay). 

Figure 3.8d. East (left) and north (right) component of hindcast current velocity time series at 

station C-30 (upper bay). 
- 19 - 

3.2.2. Temperature and Salinity 

Figure 3.9 shows the salinity and temperature stations from TOP. Figures 3.10a-d show 

simulated surface temperature at stations from the bay entrance to the upper bay. For all of the 

stations, the model accurately simulates the annual temperature signal from the 1990 summer 

(about 30oC) to the winter (about 17oC) and recovering back to the 1991 summer (again 30oC). 

For salinity, most of instruments were affected by bio-fouling during the survey period, as only a 

limited usable data set from a few instruments was recovered. These are shown in Figure 11 in 

comparisons with simulated surface salinity. Tidal signals are obvious in these comparisons at 

some stations (21and 52). 

Figure 3.9. TOP temperature and conductivity sensor locations. 
- 20 - 

Figure 3.10a. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with observations 

(black) for stations near bay entrance area (See Figure 3.9 for station locations).
- 21 - 

Figure 3.10b. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with observations 

(black) near the center of the bay and Manatee Channel (See Figure 3.9 for station 

locations). 
- 22 - 

Figure 3.10c. Model simulated (red) near surface temperature time series with observations 

(black) at Y-Cut channel and Hillsborough Bay (See Figure 3.9 for station 

locations). 
- 23 - 

Figure 3.10d. Model simulated (single line) near surface temperature time series with 

observations (heavy line) at Old Tampa Bay (See Figure 3.9 for station locations). 

 
- 24 - 

Figure 3.11. Model simulated (red) near surface salinity time series with observations (black) 

for stations from the entrance (02, S1, and 21) to mid-bay (52 and 53) and upper 

bay (30, 46, and 34) (see Figure 3.9 for station location). 
- 25 - 

3.3. Semi-Operational Nowcast/Forecast Simulation 

The calibrated ROMS model for Tampa Bay was next implemented as an semi-operational 

nowcast/forecast system at NOAA’s NCEP high performance computer systems as part of 

process towards an operational nowcast/forecast model system. The TBOFS model system is 

currently running in multi-processor environment. Sub-tidal water levels along offshore open 

boundaries are derived from the operational Extra-tropical Storm Surge Model (ETSS) and are 

added to the tidal harmonic predictions for the lateral water level open boundary forcing. Surface 

meteorological forcing and heat flux are obtained from NCEP operational products of Real-Time 

Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for nowcast run and the North America Mesoscale model forecasts 

(NAM) for forecast run. Surface forcing includes winds, air pressure and temperature, relative 

humidity and radiation fluxes. River discharges and temperature are obtained from USGS realtime river measurement at 8 stations. A simplified schematic flow chart (Figure 3.12) shows the 

processes of TBOFS and the data flow within NCEP CCS. The data inflow and running 

procedures are managed by NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) system (Zhang 

et al., in preparation) together with other two operational systems under development: 

Chesapeake Bay (CBOFS) and Delaware Bay (DBOFS) Operational Forecast Systems. After the 

NCEP standard procedures of transition models from development to operations, TBOFS will be 

operational and provide forecast information of the Tampa Bay to the users in late 2010. 

The semi-operational TBOFS has been running at NCEP CCS since October 1, 2009. Semioperational nowcasts and forecast guidance (up to 24 hours) from TBOFS at NOS real-time 

stations are archived for the period of April 15 to July 19, 2010 for operational skill assessments. 

They are: Mckay Bay Entrance (E_667 in Figure 3.1), Old Port Tampa (near E_641), St. 

Petersburg (E_520), and Port Manatee (E_384) for water levels; Sunshine Skyway Bridge (near 

C-13 in Figure 3.2) and Old Port Tampa (C-33) for current velocity; Frog Fork, Campbell Park, 

St. Petersburg, and NDBC Buoy 42013 for surface temperature (Figure 3.13); and NDBC Buoy 

42013 for surface salinity (Figure 3.13). Skill assessments of semi-operational nowcast and 

forecasts for water level, current velocity at NOS standard depth (5 m below sea surface or half 

of the water depth), surface temperature, and surface salinity are listed in Appendices I, J, K, and 

L, respectively. Skill assessment discussion for semi-operational nowcast and forecast is 

presented in Chapter 4. 

Figures 3.14 and 3.15 show the time series of semi-operational water level and current speed 

nowcasts and forecasts with observations. Mixed tides are obvious on water levels and currents. 

Model simulated nowcasts and forecasts are almost identical and accurately follow the 

observations. Semi-operational nowcasts and forecasts for temperature and salinity are shown in 

Figures 3.16 and 17. 

 
- 26 - 

Figure 3.12. Schematic TBOFS run script and data flow chart. 

 
- 27 - 

Figure 3.13. Real-time observation locations for TBOFS semi-operational nowcasts and 

forecasts verification for surface temperature and salinity. 

 
- 28 - 

Figure 3.14. Water level comparison of observations (black) with semi-operational nowcasts 

(red) and forecasts (blue) at 4 NOS real-time locations: Mckay Bay Entrance, Old 

Port Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Port Manatee. 

 
- 29 - 

Figure 3.15. Currents time series of observations (black) compared with semi-operational 

nowcasts (red) and forecasts (blue) at 2 NOS real-time locations: Sunshine 

Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa. 

 
- 30 - 

Figure 3.16. Observed (black) temperature time series with semi-operational nowcasts (red) 

and forecasts (blue) at real-time locations: Buoy 42013 (NDBC), St. Petersburg 

(NOS), and Campbell Park and Frog Creek (Terra Ceia Aquatic Preserve, via 

NBDC) for the period from April 15 to July 14, 2010. 

 
- 31 - 

Figure 3.17. Observed (black) salinity time series with semi-operational nowcasts (red) and 

forecasts (blue) at real-time location Buoy 42013 (NDBC) for the period from 

April 15 to July 14, 2010. 

 
- 32 - 

 
- 33 - 

4. SKILL ASSEESSMENT STATISTICS AND DATA 

4.1. Skill Assessment Statistics 

Model skill assessment was carried out using the NOS skill assessment software (Zhang et al., 

2006). Tidal and hindcast model simulations were compared with observations to obtain a set of 

performance statistics for water levels, currents, temperatures and salinity. Some of the statistic 

parameters in the NOS skill assessment procedures for operational forecast systems (Hess, 2003; 

Zhang et. al., 2006) include the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Central Frequency (CF), and 

Positive Outlier Frequency (POF) and Negative Outlier Frequency (NOF) for hourly records. 

The NOS statistic standard criteria is such that greater than 90% for CF, and less than 1% for 

NOF and POF. More detail definition of the above parameters can be found in NOAA’s 

technical report (Hess et al., 2003). 

In addition, a slightly different measure of model skill defined by Willmott (1981) and used by 

Warner et al, (2005) in a ROMS hydrodynamic simulation of the Hudson River was also 

computed for model comparison. Following Willmott, it takes the form, 

 



  

   2

mod

2

mod 1

el obs obs obs

el obs

X X X X

X X

Skill

This parameter, called “index of agreement” by Willmott, is a relative average error and bounded 

measure. Perfect agreement between model results and observations will yield a skill of one and 

complete disagreement yields a skill of zero. 

Statistics resulted from skill assessment software application to tide, hindcast, semi-operational 

nowcast/forecast simulations are listed in detail as Appendices B to L. The CF and RMSE, two 

most critical statistic parameters are plotted as the bar charts and presented in this Section. 

4.2. Tide Simulation Skills

Figures 4.1 and 4.2 show the CF and RMSE of tides and tidal currents at 14 water level stations 

and 27 tidal current stations from tide simulations described in Section 3. NOS standard for CF 

(90%) is shown as the dashed line in the plot. Tidal water level comparisons are given in 

Appendix B and tidal current speed comparisons are given in Appendix C. 
- 34 - 

Tide Elevations

Figure 4.1. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of tide from tide 

simulation. 

 
- 35 - 

Tidal Current Speed

Figure 4.2. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of tide current 

speed (at NOS tide prediction depth: 15 ft below the surface or mid-depth) from 

tide simulation. 
- 36 - 

4.3. Hindcast Skills 

Tables 1 to 4 show the NOS skill assessment statistics for water levels, currents, temperatures 

and salinity. In general, the model performs well and skill assessment scores are close to the 

target criteria set by NOS guideline (Hess et al., 2003) for water levels and currents at most of 

stations. The Willmott’s indices of agreement are close to 1 at all water level stations. The 

RMSE of water levels are less than 12 cm for most stations. The RMSE of current speeds and 

directions are generally less than 11 cm/s and 10 degrees at most stations. The simulated 

temperature and salinity match the observations well with the RMSE generally less than 1° for 

temperature and 1.0 psu for salinity. It is seen that temperature and salinity hindcasts 

realistically reproduce general features of the observed temperature and salinity fields including 

tidal signature, low-frequency oscillation, and seasonal warming tendency in temperature. 

Sensitivity model experiments showed that net heat flux interpolated from NARR grid points has 

to be reduced by 10%, otherwise, modeled surface temperature is over-predicted by a nearly 

constant of 1.5°C. The CF and RMSE from the skill assessment of hindcast simulations are 

shown as Figures 4.3 to 4.6. 

In general, the statistics exceeds NOS criteria except for hindcast water levels at locations in the 

shallow water upper bay at which the CF are slightly less than 90%. However the skills are more 

than 0.95 at those stations. All the current speed and direction statistics exceed NOS. For model 

skills for temperature (Table 3) meet NOS standards. 

Skill assessments of water levels and current speeds from this one year hindcast are shown as in 

Appendices D and E, respectively. Skill assessment of temperature and salinity are given in 

Appendices F and G, respectively. 

Table 1. Hindcast water level skill assessment statistics: RMSE (m), CF (%), NOF (%), 

POF(%), and index of agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria X=15 cm. ------------------------------------------------------------- 

STATION RMSE CF NOF POF SKILL 

------------------------------------------------------------- 

CORTEZ 0.070 96.3 0.0 0.1 0.97 

ANNA MARIA 0.073 95.8 0.0 0.1 0.97 

DESOTO POINT 0.071 96.0 0.0 0.1 0.97 

EGMONT KEY 0.095 91.6 0.3 1.1 0.95 

MULET KEY 0.101 89.5 0.1 1.4 0.94 

PORT MANATEE 0.104 88.8 0.3 1.5 0.95 

TIERRA VERDE 0.074 95.1 0.0 0.2 0.97 

ST. PETERSBURG 0.109 87.2 0.3 1.8 0.94 

APOLLO BEACH 0.110 86.5 0.3 1.7 0.95 

GRANDY BRIDGE 0.116 83.1 1.0 1.2 0.95 

DAVIS ISLAND 0.114 85.4 0.4 1.8 0.95 

MCKAY BAY 0.115 84.4 1.0 1.4 0.95 

BAY ARISTOCRAT 0.120 84.2 0.4 2.2 0.95 

CLEARWATER BEACH 0.113 86.9 0.7 1.7 0.95 

SAFETY HARBOR 0.120 82.6 1.2 1.5 0.95 

VENICE PIER 0.075 95.6 0.2 0.1 0.97 

------------------------------------------------------------- 
- 37 - 

Table 2. Hindcast current speed skill assessment statistics: RMSE (m s-1), CF (%), NOF (%), 

and POF (%), and index of agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria X=26 m s-1. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

STA. WATER OBSERVED RMSE CF NOF POF SKILL 

NAME DEPTH DEPTH --------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SPD DIR SPD DIR SPD DIR SPD DIR SPD DIR 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

C04 8.2 5.6 0.087 6.319 99.0 99.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.92 0.90 

C05 9.3 4.7 0.111 9.235 97.3 99.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.92 0.87 

C13 6.9 5.2 0.109 3.449 98.5 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.84 0.92 

C14 6.9 4.2 0.143 4.459 90.7 100.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.78 0.83 

C15 7.0 4.4 0.138 7.119 92.1 99.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.85 

C20 9.3 4.7 0.093 15.574 98.7 89.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.94 0.90 

C21 8.6 6.9 0.123 9.003 96.4 96.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 0.92 

C22 1.8 1.3 0.070 0.000 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.61 0.65 

C23 9.1 4.5 0.091 2.484 99.1 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.94 0.91 

C30 10.2 5.3 0.086 2.449 99.5 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.93 0.88 

C32 5.3 3.6 0.089 2.376 99.9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.80 0.64 

C33 4.0 2.3 0.160 6.237 91.5 99.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.62 0.45 

C34 4.7 3.0 0.078 0.257 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.75 0.80 

C35 4.3 2.9 0.131 10.045 95.1 97.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.54 0.74 

C36 12.6 8.8 0.068 0.000 99.9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.56 0.76 

C40 7.1 5.1 0.156 7.915 91.3 97.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.56 0.56 

C42 5.5 4.1 0.046 0.000 99.9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 0.68 

C43 9.2 7.5 0.110 0.000 97.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.65 0.55 

C44 11.9 8.0 0.058 0.000 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.48 0.59 

C50 4.4 3.9 0.076 4.763 99.8 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 0.81 

C51 6.9 6.4 0.112 10.573 96.4 96.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.75 0.81 

C52 14.1 10.4 0.051 0.000 99.8 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.81 

C54 5.7 4.0 0.094 4.510 99.9 99.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.70 0.83 

C55 13.7 10.1 0.126 1.875 96.6 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.92 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 
- 38 - 

Table 3. Hindcast temperature skill assessment statistics: RMSE (0

C for temperature), CF (%), 

NOF (%), and POF (%) , and index agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria X=3 0

C. ---------------------------------------------------------- 

STA. WATER OBSERVED RMSE CF NOF POF SKILL 

NAME DEPTH DEPTH 

---------------------------------------------------------- 

T02 26.5 24.6 1.019 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T04 8.0 7.5 0.746 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T05 9.3 8.8 1.034 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T06 29.0 27.1 1.556 90.4 0.0 0.0 0.75 

T20 9.3 8.8 0.451 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.97 

T21 8.6 6.5 0.672 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

T22 1.8 1.2 0.799 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.54 

T23 9.1 8.5 0.500 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.96 

T24 5.1 5.2 0.665 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

T26 5.1 2.4 1.235 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.88 

T27 10.2 9.7 0.973 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.95 

T30 12.2 10.2 0.591 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T31 14.0 13.8 0.899 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

T32 5.0 5.3 1.026 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

T33 4.0 1.9 1.008 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

T34 4.0 2.6 1.085 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

T35 4.0 2.5 1.045 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

T36 12.0 11.9 0.875 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

T40 7.3 4.7 0.653 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T41 8.0 7.5 0.697 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T42 5.5 3.7 0.596 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T43 8.2 7.1 0.691 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T44 11.9 11.1 0.572 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T46 4.3 2.5 0.628 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

T51 7.9 5.5 0.625 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

T52 12.1 11.4 0.558 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.93 

T53 4.6 2.8 0.642 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

T54 5.7 3.6 0.845 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.85 

T55 13.7 13.2 0.545 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.92 

T56 14.1 13.6 0.973 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.81 

TS1 3.6 1.8 0.972 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

TS2 7.0 2.0 0.660 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

TS3 5.5 2.7 0.698 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

TS1B 3.6 3.6 0.671 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

TS2B 7.0 7.0 0.771 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

TS3B 5.5 5.5 0.648 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

--------------------------------------------------------- 

 
- 39 - 

Table 4. Hindcast salinity skill assessment statistics: RMSE (PSU), CF (%), NOF (%), and POF 

(%) , and index agreement (SKILL). NOS error criteria X=3.5 PSU. ------------------------------------------------------------- 

STA. WATER OBSERVED RMSE CF NOF POF SKILL 

NAME DEPTH DEPTH 

------------------------------------------------------------- 

S02 26.5 25.5 0.688 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.52 

S21 10.0 8.6 0.657 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

S30 12.2 10.2 1.347 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.27 

S34 4.0 4.7 0.507 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.41 

S46 4.0 4.3 0.597 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

S52 10.1 12.1 0.702 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

S53 4.3 4.6 0.803 98.7 0.0 0.0 0.88 

SS1 1.8 3.6 0.704 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 

---------------------------------------------------------- 

Figure 4.3 shows hindcast water level CF and RMSE. The CF of tide elevations and amplitude of 

high and low tides are either near or exceeding NOS target, i.e., 90% and RMSE are about 5 cm. 

The CF of time of high and low tides are about 60% corresponding to RMSE of 0.7 hour. The 

selection of high and low tide time involves significant errors due to the fact: 1) hourly data used 

in the analysis and 2) a long flat high or low tide duration at some geographic location. This 

magnitude of time errors becomes more apparent in the current speed skill analyses as shown in 

Figure 4.4. 

Figure 4.3. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of water level from 

hindcast simulation. 
- 40 - 

Current Speed Skill

Figure 4.4. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of current speed 

from hindcast simulation at NOS current prediction depth (5 m from the water 

surface or mid-depth). 
- 41 - 

Temperature Skill

Figure 4.5. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of temperature 

from hindcast simulation. 

Salinity Skill

Figure 4.6. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of salinity from 

hindcast simulation. 
- 42 - 

4.4. Tidal Constituent Comparison 

Simulated water levels from the one-year hindcast are harmonically analyzed by a least squared 

method for tidal constituents and compared with the observations. The tide amplitude 

comparison of the most significant constituents (M2, O1, K1, S2, N2, and M4) is given in 

Figure 4.7 in bar chart format for water levels. Except K1 at Cortez and Egmont Key, the 

differences between observed and simulated tidal constituent amplitude are in the order of 1 to 2 

cm. Current comparisons are given in Appendix H. 

4.5. Semi-operational Nowcast/Forecast Skill Assessment 

Water level nowcast and forecast from semi-operational runs at 4 NOS operational stations are 

archived and compared with observations from NOS’s COOPS NWLON data base and listed in 

Appendix I. The system nowcast and forecast performance satisfy NOS skill criteria for most of 

parameters except the time of high and low water where the RMSE is in the order of 30 minutes. 

The Central Frequency (CF) of forecast does not degrade within 24 hours and the RMSE remains 

around 5 cm. 

Current speed and direction at the NOS real-time water depth (about 5 m from the surface) from 

nowcast and forecast runs are compared with observations and the skill statistics are listed in 

Appendix J. The skills show near 100% of CF in current direction nowcast and forecast. The 

nowcast and forecast CF of current speed are over 90% except the maximum ebbing current at 

Old Port Tampa (76%). However, the time of maximum currents and slacks are in the order of 

60% with RMSE over 30 minutes in general. 

Surface temperature from semi-operational nowcast/forecast runs at Buoy 42013, St. Petersburg, 

Campbell Park, Frog Creek are compared with observations obtained from NDBC, COOPS, and 

Terra Ceia Aquatic Preserve to generate skill assessment tables listed in Appendix K. The 

surface temperature nowcast/forecast skills indicate the model system accurately predicted 

surface temperature at these two stations. The RMSE in the order of 1.50

 C with forecast skill 

slightly better than the nowcast probably due to the effect from the heat flux surface forcing 

(from atmospheric forecasts) to the model. 

Surface salinity observations are available from NDBC Buoy 42013 located on West Florida 

Shelf near the model grid offshore open boundary (Figure 3.2). Skills for surface salinity 

nowcast/forecast at this location is listed as Appendix L. RMSE of 0.5 PSU for nowcasts and 0.8 

PSU for forecasts at this station show the model system forced with the salinity open boundary 

condition by NCOM model nowcasts and forecasts are well represented. 

 
- 43 - 

Figure 4.7. Tidal constituents (M2, O1, K1, N2, S2) comparison between observations and 

hindcast.
- 44 - 

Figure 4.8. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of water 

 levels from semi-operational runs. 

Figure 4.9. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of current speed 

from semi-operational runs. 
- 45 - 

Figure 4.10. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of temperature 

from semi-operational runs. 

Figure 4.11. Central Frequency (CF) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) salinity from semioperational runs. 

 
- 46 - 

 
- 47 - 

5. SUMMARY 

The ROMS model has been tested and evaluated for hydrodynamic simulations of Tampa Bay as 

part of the development of an operational nowcast/forecast system. The observations from an 

extensive 1990-1991 NOS circulation survey were analyzed and used for model calibration and 

validation. Model initial conditions for temperature and salinity are generated from monthly 

measurements from the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County 

(EPCHC). 

The averaged surface circulation from the tidal simulation compared well with previous studies 

by Weisberg et al., (1991, 2006) and shows that the model is capable of representing well the 

tidal circulation patterns from the Bay entrance to the upper bay. 

The performance of the ROMS hindcast simulations was evaluated by comparison with observed 

water levels, currents, temperatures, and salinity. The model results show that the currents are 

simulated very well throughout Tampa Bay in both speed and direction. The values of RMSE are 

generally less than 10 cm/s for maximum current speeds that range from 30 cm/s to 70 cm/s. 

Skill assessment statistics for water levels, currents, temperatures, and salinity evaluated at 

stations exceed the NOS criteria with the exception of the water level Central Frequency at some 

stations inside the upper shallow portion of the bay. The temperature hindcast time series shows 

that the model is capable of reproducing the annual cycle of surface water temperature. 

The calibrated ROMS-based model for Tampa Bay is being implemented on NOAA high 

performance computers (NCEP CCS) as a nowcast/forecast model to provide real-time and 

forecast information of water levels, currents, temperatures and salinity for mariners navigating 

in Tampa Bay. Skill assessment from semi-operational nowcast/forecast runs at NCEP CCS 

meets NOS operational model system standard. The TBOFS will be implemented as an NOAA 

operational system in 2011. 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to thank our colleagues Frank Aikman, Richard Schmalz, Lyon Lanerolle at 

NOS’s Coast Survey Development Laboratory and Mark Vincent of Office of Oceanic 

Atmospheric Research (formerly at the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and 

Services) for their discussions, suggestions and comments during TBOFS development. 
- 48 - 

REFERENCES 

Burwell, D., M. Vincent, M. Luther, and B. Galperin, 2000. Modeling Residence Times: 

Eulerian vs Lagrangian, in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, edited by M.L. Spaulding and 

H.L. Butler, pp 995 – 1009, ASCE, Reston, Va. 

Blumberg, A., 1990. A Primer for ECOM-3D. Hydroqual, Inc. Mahwah, New Jersey. 58 pages. 

Galperin, B., A. F. Blumberg, and R. H. Weisberg, 1991,The importance of density driven 

circulation in well mixed estuaries: The Tampa Bay experience, in Estuarine and Coastal 

Modeling, edited by M. L. Spaulding and A. Blumberg, pp. 332 –343, Am. Soc. of Civ. 

Eng., Tampa, Fla 

Haidvogel, D.B., H. Arango, W.P. Budgell, B.D. Cornuelle, E. Curchitser, E. Di Lorenzo, K. 

Fennel, W.R. Geyer, A.J. Hermann, L. Lanerolle, J. Levin, J.C. McWilliams, A.J. Miller, 

A.M. Moore, T.M. Powell, A.F. Shchepetkin, C.R. Sherwood, R.P. Signell, J.C. Warner, J. 

Wilkin. 2008. Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill 

assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System, Journal of Computational Physics, 

Vol. 27 No. 7, 3595-3624. 

Hess, K. W., and K. Bosley, 1991. Methodology for Validation of a Tampa Bay Circulation 

Model, in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, edited by M.L. Spaulding , ASCE. p. 83-94. 

Hess, K. W., 1993. Modeling astronomical tides and currents in Tampa Bay. Proceedings, 

International Conference on HydroScience and Engineering, Washington, DC, June 8-11, 

1993, pp. 1499 - 1506. 

Hess, K. W., 2001. Generation of Tidal Datum Fields for Tampa Bay and the New York Bight. 

U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver 

Spring, Maryland, NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 11, 43 p. 

Meyers, S.D., E. M. Luther, M. Wilson, H. Havens, A. Linville, and K. Sopkin, 2007. A 

Numerical Simulation of Residual Circulation in Tampa Bay. Part I: Low-frequency 

Temporal Variations. Estuaries and Coasts, Vol. 30, No. 4, p. 679-697. August 2007. 

Mukai A.Y., J.J. Westerink, R.A. Luettich Jr., and D. Mark, 2002. “Eastcoast 2001: a tidal 

constituent database for the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea”, 

US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics 

Laboratory, Technical Report, ERDC/CHL TR-02-24, September 2002, 201p. 

Nowadly, F. ed., 1992. Tampa Bay Oceanography Project: 1990-1991. NOS Oceanographic 

Circulation Survey Report No. 11, 25 pp + appendices. 

Vincent, M., D. Burwell, and M. Luther, 2000, The Tampa Bay Nowcast-Forecast System, in 

Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, edited by M. L. Spaulding and H. L. Butler, pp. 765 –

780, Am. Soc. of Civ. Eng., Reston, Va. 
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Warner, J., W. R. Geyer, and J. Lerczak, 2005. Numerical modeling of an estuary: A 

comprehensive skill assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, C05001. 

Weisberg, R. H., and R. G. Williams (1991), Initial findings of the circulation of Tampa Bay, in 

Proceedings of Tampa Bay Area Scientific Information Symposium, vol. 2, edited by S. 

Treat and P. Clark, pp. 49 –66, Tampa, Fla. 

Weisberg, R. H., and L.Y. Zheng, 2006. Circulation of Tampa Bay driven by buoyancy, tides, 

and winds, as simulated using a finite volume coastal ocean model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, 

C01005, doi:10.1029/2005JC003067. 

Willmott, C. J. 1981, On the validation of models, Physical Geography, 2. 184-194. 

Wilson, M, S.D. Meyers, and M.E. Luther, 2006. Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due 

to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a 

numerical ocean model. Estuaries and Coasts, Vol. 29, No. 6A, p. 914-918. December 

2006. 

Zervas, C. E. (Ed.) (1993), Tampa Bay Oceanography Project: Physical oceanographic synthesis, 

NOAA Tech. Rep., NOS OES 002, 184 pp. 

Zheng, L. Y., and R. H. Weisberg, 2004. Tide, buoyancy, and wind-driven circulation of the 

Charlotte Harbor estuary: A model study, J. Geophys. Res., 109, C06011, 

doi:10.1029/2003JC001996 

Zhang, A., K. W. Hess, E. Wei, and E. Myers, 2006. Implementation of Model Skill Assessment 

Software for Water Level and Current. NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 24, 61pp. 

Zhang, A., Z. Yang, M. Greg, D. Cao, F. Aikman, J. Kelley, E. Wei, R. Schmalz, L. Lanerolle, 

and M. Vincent. 2010. High Performance Computer Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework 

for the NOS Costal Operational Forecast System. NOAA Technical Report, CO-OPS 

TRXX (in preparation). 

 
- 50 - 

 
- 51 - 

APPENDIX A: ROMS CPPDEFS.H 

A.1 Tide simulation

#define SOLVE3D 

#define CURVGRID 

#define MASKING 

#undef WET_DRY 

#define SALINITY 

#ifdef SALINITY 

# define ANA_BSFLUX 

# define ANA_SSFLUX 

#endif 

#define NONLIN_EOS 

#define UV_ADV 

#define UV_COR 

#undef UV_QDRAG 

#define UV_LOGDRAG 

#define UV_SADVECTION 

#define TS_U3HADVECTION 

#define TS_SVADVECTION 

#define DJ_GRADPS 

#define SPLINES 

#define RADIATION_2D 

#define SOUTH_M3RADIATION 

#define SOUTH_TRADIATION 

#define ANA_FSOBC 

#define ANA_M2OBC 

#define SSH_TIDES 

#define RAMP_TIDES 

#define SOUTH_FSCLAMPED 

#define FSOBC_REDUCED 

#ifdef FSOBC_REDUCED 

# define SOUTH_M2REDUCED 

#endif 

#undef UV_TIDES 

#ifdef UV_TIDES 

# define SOUTH_M2FLATHER 

#endif 

#define MY25_MIXING 

#define STATIONS 

#define PERFECT_RESTART 

#ifdef PERFECT_RESTART 

#define AVERAGES 

# define OUT_DOUBLE 

#endif 

#define ANA_BTFLUX 

#define ANA_STFLUX 

#define ANA_SMFLUX 

#define ANA_SMFLUX 

#define ANA_STFLUX 
- 52 - 

A.2. Hindcast 

#define SOLVE3D 

#define CURVGRID 

#define MASKING 

#undef WET_DRY 

#define ATM_PRESS 

#define SALINITY 

#ifdef SALINITY 

# define ANA_BSFLUX 

# define ANA_SSFLUX 

#endif 

#define NONLIN_EOS 

#define UV_ADV 

#define UV_COR 

#undef UV_QDRAG 

#define UV_LOGDRAG 

#define UV_SADVECTION 

#define TS_U3HADVECTION 

#define TS_SVADVECTION 

#define DJ_GRADPS 

#define SPLINES 

#define RADIATION_2D 

#define SOUTH_M3RADIATION 

#define SOUTH_TRADIATION 

#define SOUTH_TNUDGING 

#undef ANA_FSOBC 

#define ANA_M2OBC 

#define SSH_TIDES 

#define RAMP_TIDES 

#ifdef SSH_TIDES 

# define SOUTH_FSCHAPMAN 

#endif 

#define ADD_FSOBC 

#define FSOBC_REDUCED 

#ifdef FSOBC_REDUCED 

# define SOUTH_M2REDUCED 

#endif 

#undef UV_TIDES 

#ifdef UV_TIDES 

# define SOUTH_M2FLATHER 

#endif 

#define MY25_MIXING 

#undef GLS_MIXING 

#if defined MY25_MIXING || defined GLS_MIXING 

# define N2S2_HORAVG 

# define KANTHA_CLAYSON 

#endif 

#define STATIONS 

#define PERFECT_RESTART 

#ifdef PERFECT_RESTART 

# define AVERAGES 

# undef DIAGNOSTICS_BIO 
- 53 - 

# undef DIAGNOSTICS_TS 

# undef DIAGNOSTICS_UV 

# define OUT_DOUBLE 

#endif 

#define ANA_BTFLUX 

#define ANA_STFLUX 

#define ANA_SMFLUX 

#define BULK_FLUXES 

#ifdef BULK_FLUXES 

# define LONGWAVE_OUT 

# define ANA_CLOUD 

# define ANA_RAIN 

#else 

# define ANA_SMFLUX 

# define ANA_STFLUX 

#endif 

#define UV_PSOURCE 

#define TS_PSOURCE

 
- 54 - 

 
- 55 - 

APPENDIX B. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR TIDES 

Station: Cortez 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.011 

h 87840 0.016 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 -0.005 0.039 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 617 0.004 0.036 0.036 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 617 -0.010 0.038 0.036 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 617 -0.106 0.460 0.448 1.9 70.2 1.1 24.9 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 617 -0.007 0.343 0.344 0.2 86.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 

Station: Anna Maria Outside 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.000 

h 87840 -0.013 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.013 0.046 0.044 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 619 0.012 0.041 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 619 0.024 0.046 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 619 -0.028 0.463 0.463 1.0 68.8 2.4 24.6 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 619 0.005 0.393 0.393 0.0 83.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 

Station: Venice Pier 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.000 

h 87840 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.000 0.027 0.027 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 1.00 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 619 0.009 0.027 0.026 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 619 0.001 0.024 0.024 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 619 -0.013 0.383 0.383 0.2 78.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 619 0.041 0.295 0.292 0.0 88.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 

Station: Desoto Point 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.009 

h 87840 -0.011 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.020 0.051 0.047 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 609 0.029 0.050 0.041 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 609 0.014 0.040 0.037 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 609 -0.082 0.454 0.447 1.0 69.6 1.3 49.1 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 609 -0.043 0.430 0.428 0.3 80.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 
- 56 - 

Station: Egmont Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.001 

h 87840 0.038 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 -0.037 0.054 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 609 -0.013 0.035 0.032 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 609 -0.039 0.056 0.040 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 609 -0.033 0.427 0.426 2.0 75.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 609 0.163 0.407 0.373 0.7 76.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 

Station: Mulet Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.001 

h 87840 -0.010 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.011 0.039 0.038 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 575 0.012 0.038 0.036 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 575 0.014 0.042 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 575 0.099 0.431 0.420 2.6 81.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 575 0.177 0.306 0.250 0.0 88.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 

Station: Port Manatee 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.015 

h 87840 -0.016 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.031 0.051 0.041 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 553 0.033 0.048 0.035 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 554 0.028 0.053 0.044 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 553 -0.062 0.420 0.416 4.0 85.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 554 0.169 0.323 0.276 0.0 87.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: Tierra Verde 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.009 

h 87840 0.001 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.008 0.039 0.038 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 582 0.000 0.027 0.027 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 582 0.017 0.034 0.030 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 582 0.308 0.523 0.424 0.0 59.8 3.1 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 582 0.425 0.596 0.417 0.9 45.5 3.8 0.0 0.0 
- 57 - 

Station: St. Petersburg 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.019 

h 87840 -0.014 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.034 0.055 0.044 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 562 0.025 0.041 0.032 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 563 0.035 0.062 0.051 0.0 97.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 562 -0.151 0.445 0.419 3.4 81.1 0.4 25.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 563 0.091 0.280 0.265 0.0 92.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: Apollo Beach 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.021 

h 87840 0.046 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 -0.025 0.056 0.050 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 614 -0.033 0.051 0.039 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 615 -0.022 0.058 0.054 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 614 0.169 0.518 0.490 3.1 64.2 2.4 74.5 9.9 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 615 0.272 0.503 0.423 0.5 68.5 3.4 0.0 0.0 

Station: Gandy Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.022 

h 87840 0.021 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.001 0.051 0.051 0.0 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 626 0.013 0.038 0.036 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 626 -0.006 0.062 0.062 0.0 98.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 626 0.086 0.408 0.399 1.6 80.5 1.1 49.7 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 626 0.132 0.356 0.331 0.2 82.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 

Station: Davis Island 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.021 

h 87840 -0.041 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.062 0.078 0.047 0.0 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.97 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 609 0.078 0.087 0.037 0.0 95.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 609 0.045 0.067 0.049 0.0 95.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 609 0.046 0.361 0.359 1.0 84.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 609 0.152 0.364 0.331 0.2 83.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 
- 58 - 

Station: Mckay Bay Ent 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.021 

h 87840 -0.052 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.073 0.101 0.070 0.0 86.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 575 0.092 0.106 0.054 0.0 87.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 574 0.042 0.087 0.076 0.0 91.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 575 0.108 0.503 0.492 3.5 67.5 1.6 24.9 13.2 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 574 0.505 0.718 0.511 1.7 37.8 8.2 0.0 49.7 

Station: Bay Aristocrat Village 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.024 

h 87840 -0.045 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.069 0.095 0.065 0.0 88.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.96 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 656 0.083 0.093 0.042 0.0 91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 658 0.059 0.087 0.064 0.0 91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 656 0.333 0.724 0.643 3.2 47.0 10.7 24.9 35.1 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 658 0.388 0.631 0.498 0.9 52.4 5.8 0.0 39.0 

Station: Clearwater Beach 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.000 

h 87840 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 0.000 0.041 0.041 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 657 0.004 0.043 0.043 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 657 0.004 0.039 0.039 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 657 0.001 0.294 0.294 0.5 92.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 657 0.003 0.257 0.257 0.5 92.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: Safety Harbor 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

H 87840 0.024 

h 87840 0.043 

H-h 15 cm 24h 87840 -0.019 0.066 0.063 0.0 97.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 657 0.003 0.040 0.040 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 657 -0.033 0.077 0.070 0.0 98.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 657 0.250 0.576 0.520 1.1 65.1 7.9 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 657 0.348 0.547 0.423 0.0 63.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 
- 59 - 

APPENDIX C. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR TIDAL CURRENT 

SPEEDS 

Station: C-02 Inner Egmont (REF) 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.366 

u 41520 0.409 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.043 0.115 0.106 0.0 97.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 323 -0.053 0.111 0.098 0.0 99.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 209 -0.090 0.158 0.131 0.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 323 0.072 0.356 0.349 0.6 83.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 209 -0.196 0.439 0.393 1.0 67.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 300 0.077 0.462 0.457 0.0 79.0 4.3 0.0 24.2 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 307 0.438 0.756 0.617 1.6 58.0 13.7 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 198 -0.066 0.581 0.578 7.1 75.3 2.5 24.8 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 202 0.070 0.411 0.406 1.5 77.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-04 Port Manatee Entranc 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.261 

u 41520 0.276 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.015 0.081 0.080 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 326 -0.040 0.085 0.075 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 212 -0.032 0.108 0.103 0.0 97.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 326 0.084 0.472 0.465 0.6 80.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 212 -0.061 0.285 0.279 0.0 89.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 308 0.247 0.590 0.536 1.0 63.0 8.4 0.0 92.8 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 286 0.235 0.618 0.573 1.0 60.5 8.4 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 182 0.000 0.547 0.548 0.5 68.1 5.5 0.0 74.4 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 197 -0.183 0.454 0.416 4.6 76.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-05 Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.352 

u 41520 0.368 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.016 0.126 0.125 0.0 94.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.91 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 326 -0.037 0.096 0.089 0.0 98.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 240 -0.134 0.216 0.169 0.8 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 326 -0.194 0.524 0.488 6.4 68.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 240 -0.360 0.496 0.342 2.9 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 306 0.517 0.629 0.359 0.0 51.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 297 0.111 0.676 0.668 6.4 53.9 7.7 0.0 24.8 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 225 0.074 0.571 0.567 3.6 74.2 4.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 237 -0.182 0.435 0.396 4.2 83.1 0.0 24.9 0.0 
- 60 - 

Station: C-13 Sun Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.266 

u 41520 0.212 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.053 0.107 0.093 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.85 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 325 0.018 0.064 0.061 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 210 0.141 0.149 0.050 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 325 -0.048 0.571 0.569 0.9 61.5 5.2 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 210 -0.316 0.448 0.318 0.0 65.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 273 0.896 1.164 0.745 0.0 27.5 39.6 0.0 74.6 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 300 -0.220 0.744 0.712 11.7 56.7 3.0 49.3 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 181 -0.067 0.587 0.585 1.7 73.5 5.5 0.0 24.8 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 161 -1.135 1.263 0.558 55.9 6.8 0.0 208.9 0.0 

Station: C-14 Beacon Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.244 

u 41520 0.233 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.012 0.074 0.073 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 327 0.024 0.071 0.067 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 223 -0.030 0.090 0.085 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 327 0.050 0.489 0.487 0.9 73.7 3.7 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 223 0.084 0.259 0.245 0.0 91.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 307 0.471 0.686 0.499 0.0 49.2 11.7 0.0 31.8 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 285 -0.122 0.628 0.617 8.8 54.7 1.4 49.6 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 182 0.359 0.676 0.574 1.1 65.4 13.2 0.0 49.3 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 208 -0.090 0.382 0.373 1.9 83.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-15 Mangrove Pt., Cut E 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.250 

u 41520 0.238 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.012 0.080 0.079 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.92 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 324 -0.007 0.078 0.078 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 215 0.011 0.080 0.079 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 324 0.092 0.650 0.645 2.8 68.5 7.4 0.0 24.9 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 215 -0.021 0.315 0.315 0.0 87.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 290 0.538 0.755 0.530 0.0 54.8 15.2 0.0 56.3 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 268 0.060 0.584 0.582 4.1 64.6 3.4 49.3 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 174 -0.038 0.633 0.634 8.0 61.5 5.2 24.9 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 187 -0.403 0.567 0.401 7.5 62.0 0.0 49.1 0.0 
- 61 - 

Station: C-20 Southwest Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.309 

u 41520 0.319 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.011 0.078 0.077 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.96 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 319 -0.031 0.074 0.068 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 227 -0.042 0.092 0.081 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 319 -0.196 0.498 0.459 1.3 68.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 227 -0.256 0.457 0.380 2.2 71.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 307 0.089 0.379 0.368 0.3 85.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 289 -0.021 0.593 0.594 4.5 70.2 3.1 25.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 201 0.023 0.487 0.487 2.5 85.1 3.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 223 0.052 0.403 0.401 2.2 84.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-21 Passage Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.228 

u 41520 0.309 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.081 0.138 0.111 0.1 93.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.82 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 323 -0.148 0.169 0.082 0.0 90.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 227 -0.197 0.235 0.129 0.0 67.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 323 -0.219 0.480 0.428 1.2 82.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 227 -0.645 0.759 0.401 14.5 36.1 0.0 98.9 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 301 -0.793 0.887 0.397 25.2 19.6 0.3 36.4 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 281 0.111 0.497 0.486 1.8 74.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 196 -0.712 0.823 0.413 18.9 28.1 0.5 24.3 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 214 -0.181 0.417 0.376 3.3 80.4 0.0 25.0 0.0 

Station: C-22 Anna Maria 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.060 

u 41520 0.092 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.032 0.049 0.037 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 179 -0.059 0.067 0.031 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 127 -0.055 0.064 0.033 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 179 0.560 0.992 0.821 5.6 25.1 32.4 24.3 74.4 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 127 -1.098 1.462 0.969 58.3 11.8 3.9 122.7 24.2 
- 62 - 

Station: C-23 Mullet Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.302 

u 41520 0.305 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.003 0.072 0.072 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.97 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 325 -0.019 0.072 0.069 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 226 -0.015 0.081 0.080 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 325 0.034 0.381 0.380 0.6 85.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 226 -0.065 0.338 0.333 0.4 85.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 310 0.244 0.471 0.403 0.6 75.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 294 0.146 0.580 0.563 2.0 70.1 5.1 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 200 -0.034 0.456 0.456 4.0 82.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 215 -0.077 0.394 0.387 2.3 84.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-27 Penlopen Point 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.038 

u 41520 0.069 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.031 0.057 0.048 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.35 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 78 -0.089 0.090 0.014 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 32 0.025 0.027 0.011 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 78 -0.168 0.435 0.404 3.8 83.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 32 0.634 0.703 0.308 0.0 15.6 12.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-30 Cut J Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.257 

u 41520 0.288 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.031 0.101 0.097 0.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.92 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 314 -0.056 0.095 0.077 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 233 -0.105 0.177 0.142 0.0 84.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 314 -0.477 0.607 0.377 7.3 54.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 233 -0.164 0.327 0.283 1.3 88.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 294 0.017 0.508 0.508 4.4 64.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 283 0.053 0.636 0.635 7.4 55.8 5.7 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 206 -0.419 0.629 0.470 12.6 58.7 0.5 49.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 220 -0.102 0.429 0.417 3.2 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 
- 63 - 

Station: C-32 Gandy Bridge East 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.223 

u 41520 0.147 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.077 0.096 0.058 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.80 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 219 0.050 0.083 0.066 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 329 0.130 0.137 0.041 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 219 -0.353 0.593 0.477 6.4 47.0 0.5 62.1 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 329 -0.323 0.486 0.363 3.6 70.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 107 1.190 1.259 0.411 0.0 5.6 71.0 0.0 86.4 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 187 -1.147 1.229 0.443 57.8 7.5 0.0 73.6 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 254 1.208 1.283 0.434 0.0 1.2 63.4 0.0 97.7 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 185 -1.172 1.282 0.521 69.2 11.9 0.0 81.3 0.0 

Station: C-33 Gandy Bridge West 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.289 

u 41520 0.192 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.097 0.155 0.121 0.0 91.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.70 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 221 0.108 0.135 0.081 0.0 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 326 0.114 0.130 0.062 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 221 0.669 0.825 0.484 0.0 36.2 18.6 0.0 74.6 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 326 0.586 0.774 0.508 0.0 37.4 19.3 0.0 35.1 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 140 1.415 1.484 0.449 0.0 2.9 86.4 0.0185.6 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 179 -0.205 0.727 0.700 11.7 64.2 0.0 73.6 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 249 1.964 2.154 0.884 2.8 0.0 97.2 24.6259.8 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 252 0.120 0.726 0.718 9.5 52.4 12.3 0.0 24.8 

Station: C-34 Franklnd Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.157 

u 41520 0.126 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.031 0.071 0.064 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 239 -0.047 0.083 0.068 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 317 0.087 0.094 0.036 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 239 -0.482 0.629 0.404 6.7 41.8 0.0 24.6 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 317 -0.350 0.519 0.384 6.3 62.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 24 -1.839 1.898 0.479 91.7 0.0 0.0 73.9 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 91 0.657 0.760 0.385 0.0 28.6 13.2 0.0 48.9 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 108 -1.384 1.519 0.629 66.7 10.2 0.0 73.9 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 75 0.739 0.875 0.472 0.0 21.3 21.3 0.0 48.9 
- 64 - 

Station: C-35 Courtney Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.234 

u 41520 0.142 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.092 0.118 0.075 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.68 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 244 0.151 0.158 0.046 0.0 99.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 26 0.061 0.067 0.030 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 244 -0.459 0.773 0.623 16.8 43.0 3.3 24.9 24.9 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 26 -0.312 0.516 0.420 0.0 57.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 72 2.398 2.415 0.287 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 49.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 240 -1.657 1.763 0.605 89.2 0.0 0.0 147.3 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 31 2.483 2.493 0.227 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 48.7 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 32 -1.931 1.983 0.455 100.0 0.0 0.0 49.6 0.0 

Station: C_36 Gadsden Point 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.046 

u 41520 0.076 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.030 0.045 0.034 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.63 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 178 -0.069 0.072 0.021 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 86 -0.044 0.052 0.028 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 178 -0.313 0.798 0.737 11.8 52.8 1.7 0.0 24.8 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 86 0.620 0.911 0.672 4.7 19.8 31.4 0.0 49.4 

Station: C-40 Christmas Island 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.255 

u 41520 0.195 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.060 0.131 0.116 0.0 97.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.73 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 212 0.031 0.092 0.087 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 328 0.101 0.115 0.055 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 212 -0.168 0.658 0.638 6.6 49.1 3.8 74.1 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 328 0.901 1.021 0.481 0.0 17.4 43.0 0.0 37.3 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 165 1.678 1.744 0.475 0.0 0.0 92.7 0.0219.7 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 169 -0.035 0.685 0.686 11.2 42.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 258 1.692 1.771 0.525 0.0 0.0 93.0 0.0644.6 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 274 0.416 0.915 0.817 6.9 31.8 27.0 0.0 74.6 
- 65 - 

Station: C-41 Pinic I, Cut K 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.304 

u 41520 0.347 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.043 0.137 0.130 0.2 94.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.87 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 230 -0.158 0.241 0.183 3.0 68.7 0.0 74.3 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 307 -0.081 0.129 0.100 0.0 97.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 230 -0.487 0.627 0.396 7.0 46.5 0.0 49.6 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 307 -0.569 0.731 0.460 16.6 45.6 0.0 24.8 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 202 -0.254 0.617 0.563 8.9 66.8 2.5 74.3 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 223 -0.346 0.615 0.510 11.2 64.6 0.0 99.1 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 287 0.118 0.466 0.451 0.3 70.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 286 0.034 0.652 0.652 8.0 57.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-42 Venebian Island 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.076 

u 41520 0.091 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.015 0.036 0.033 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.85 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 304 -0.022 0.038 0.030 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 243 -0.045 0.062 0.043 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 304 -0.512 0.659 0.415 11.5 53.6 0.3 63.1 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 243 -0.526 0.805 0.610 18.9 42.8 0.0 73.9 0.0 

Station: C-43 Old TB Street 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.111 

u 41520 0.153 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.042 0.079 0.067 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 306 -0.062 0.077 0.046 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 220 -0.142 0.162 0.077 0.0 93.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 306 -0.204 0.702 0.673 11.4 51.6 1.3 49.6 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 220 -0.704 0.843 0.466 29.5 33.2 0.0 98.3 0.0 

Station: C-44 Intersec Y-cut 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.067 

u 41520 0.093 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.026 0.037 0.027 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.66 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 230 -0.037 0.040 0.016 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 139 -0.053 0.061 0.029 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 230 -1.101 1.415 0.890 46.1 20.4 0.4 86.9 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 139 -0.419 0.720 0.588 15.8 50.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 
- 66 - 

Station: C-50 Point Pine 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.174 

u 41520 0.155 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.019 0.059 0.055 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 326 -0.004 0.044 0.044 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 224 0.019 0.050 0.046 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 326 -0.068 0.539 0.536 3.7 69.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 224 -0.567 0.666 0.350 9.4 30.4 0.0 74.4 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 220 0.052 0.627 0.627 7.7 67.3 5.5 24.6 42.7 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 224 -0.348 0.731 0.644 18.3 46.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 145 -0.100 0.767 0.763 14.5 41.4 6.2 49.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 152 -0.777 0.924 0.503 32.2 19.7 0.0 49.3 0.0 

Station: C-52 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.100 

u 41520 0.091 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 0.009 0.035 0.034 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 324 0.014 0.033 0.030 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 228 -0.002 0.028 0.028 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 324 0.505 0.721 0.516 0.0 56.5 15.1 0.0 62.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 228 0.278 0.462 0.370 0.0 77.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-54 Waterway L 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.155 

u 41520 0.213 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.058 0.087 0.065 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.72 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 324 -0.092 0.102 0.043 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 173 0.012 0.036 0.034 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 324 0.364 0.659 0.550 0.6 59.6 9.6 0.0 24.7 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 173 -0.424 0.574 0.388 5.8 51.4 0.6 49.4 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 142 -0.244 0.654 0.609 16.2 68.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 59 1.160 1.413 0.814 3.4 5.1 83.1 0.0122.5 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 18 -1.131 1.171 0.315 66.7 5.6 0.0 48.9 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 106 -0.442 0.649 0.477 10.4 51.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 
- 67 - 

Station: C-55 Manatee Channel Out 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.201 

u 41520 0.279 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.078 0.135 0.110 0.0 95.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 321 -0.189 0.199 0.063 0.0 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 200 -0.069 0.117 0.095 0.0 95.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 321 0.393 0.616 0.475 0.6 57.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 200 0.094 0.245 0.227 0.0 95.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 255 -0.005 0.771 0.773 15.7 37.6 3.1 0.0 24.5 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 205 1.451 1.545 0.530 0.0 3.9 79.0 0.0245.7 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 120 -0.921 0.989 0.363 32.5 10.0 0.0 123.4 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 177 0.089 0.378 0.368 0.6 84.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-56 Egmont Chan 2 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /11/29/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: TIDAL SIMULATION ONLY 

U 41520 0.348 

u 41520 0.390 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 41520 -0.042 0.128 0.121 0.0 95.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.93 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 320 -0.093 0.138 0.103 0.0 93.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 224 -0.091 0.134 0.099 0.0 94.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 320 0.247 0.615 0.565 0.6 67.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 224 -0.203 0.366 0.305 0.0 80.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 304 0.334 0.622 0.526 1.3 65.5 5.6 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 300 0.670 0.980 0.716 2.7 31.7 28.3 24.6 74.2 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 209 -0.237 0.542 0.489 6.7 78.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 222 0.092 0.421 0.411 1.8 82.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 

 
- 68 - 
- 69 - 

APPENDIX D. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST WATER 

LEVELS 

Station: Cortez 

Observed data time period from: / 7/20/1990 to /11/ 1/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 34932 0.019 

h 34932 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 34932 0.019 0.070 0.067 0.0 96.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.00 0.97 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 238 0.017 0.068 0.066 0.0 96.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 239 0.023 0.065 0.061 0.0 96.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 238 -0.078 0.679 0.676 7.6 58.4 4.6 24.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 239 0.121 0.555 0.543 1.7 62.3 4.6 0.0 0.0 

Station: Anna Maria 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 9/1990 to / 8/23/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 33414 0.007 

h 33414 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 33414 0.007 0.073 0.073 0.0 95.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 0.00 0.97 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 222 0.005 0.069 0.069 0.0 97.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 223 0.019 0.067 0.065 0.0 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 222 0.057 0.688 0.687 5.4 50.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 223 0.040 0.622 0.622 4.0 56.5 5.4 0.0 0.0 

Station: Desoto Point 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 8/21/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 33943 0.017 

h 33943 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 33943 0.017 0.071 0.069 0.0 96.0 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.00 0.97 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 223 0.023 0.068 0.065 0.0 96.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 225 0.020 0.065 0.062 0.0 96.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 223 -0.148 0.690 0.676 9.4 54.7 3.1 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 225 0.022 0.576 0.577 4.0 60.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 

Station: Egmont Key 

Observed data time period from: / 8/11/1990 to /11/25/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 69552 0.006 

h 69552 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 69552 0.006 0.095 0.094 0.3 91.6 1.1 5.3 14.4 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 439 0.008 0.092 0.092 0.2 92.5 1.1 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 439 0.014 0.090 0.089 0.0 92.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 439 -0.160 0.789 0.774 11.2 50.1 5.2 39.0 25.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 439 0.148 0.683 0.668 4.6 54.2 6.8 0.0 0.0 
- 70 - 

Station: Mulet Key 

Observed data time period from: / 1/22/1991 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 83576 -0.004 

h 83576 -0.008 

H-h 15 cm 24h 83576 0.004 0.101 0.101 0.1 89.5 1.4 4.0 19.9 0.00 0.94 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 531 0.005 0.103 0.103 0.6 90.0 1.3 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 531 0.013 0.101 0.100 0.0 89.5 1.5 0.0 10.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 531 0.089 0.753 0.748 6.0 53.1 9.2 0.0 15.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 531 0.190 0.712 0.687 4.1 56.7 9.0 0.0 24.0 

Station: Port Manatee 

Observed data time period from: /12/26/1990 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 84727 0.008 

h 84727 -0.010 

H-h 15 cm 24h 84727 0.018 0.104 0.102 0.3 88.8 1.5 4.2 20.6 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 524 0.021 0.107 0.105 0.4 88.4 1.5 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 525 0.025 0.103 0.100 0.2 89.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 524 -0.031 0.638 0.637 5.7 58.2 3.6 0.0 14.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 525 0.169 0.630 0.608 3.0 58.5 6.3 0.0 0.0 

Station: Tierra Verde 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to /10/20/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 34492 0.016 

h 34492 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 34492 0.016 0.074 0.072 0.0 95.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 0.00 0.97 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 224 -0.005 0.066 0.065 0.0 97.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 223 0.038 0.075 0.065 0.0 95.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 224 0.180 0.657 0.634 2.7 53.6 5.8 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 223 0.491 0.729 0.540 0.4 42.6 13.0 0.0 10.0 

Station: St. Pete 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 3/1991 to / 6/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 86692 0.015 

h 86692 -0.013 

H-h 15 cm 24h 86692 0.027 0.109 0.106 0.3 87.2 1.8 7.9 21.9 0.00 0.94 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 550 0.025 0.113 0.110 0.4 86.0 2.2 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 551 0.041 0.108 0.099 0.2 87.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 550 -0.110 0.683 0.675 7.8 58.5 2.7 24.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 551 0.077 0.583 0.579 3.8 61.0 3.3 0.0 25.0 
- 71 - 

Station: Apollo Beach 

Observed data time period from: /11/30/1990 to / 2/15/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 77875 0.015 

h 77875 -0.012 

H-h 15 cm 24h 77875 0.027 0.110 0.107 0.3 86.5 1.7 8.0 15.0 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 529 0.025 0.113 0.110 0.6 85.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 529 0.037 0.102 0.095 0.2 88.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 529 0.066 0.626 0.624 4.7 60.1 5.7 24.0 14.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 529 0.252 0.619 0.566 2.3 56.7 5.1 0.0 25.0 

Station: Gandy Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 2/10/1991 to / 6/ 4/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 41402 0.004 

h 41402 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 41402 0.003 0.116 0.116 1.0 83.1 1.2 10.3 19.8 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 286 -0.002 0.120 0.120 1.7 81.1 1.4 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 286 0.020 0.105 0.103 0.3 85.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 286 0.138 0.651 0.637 3.1 59.1 7.7 0.0 14.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 286 0.222 0.603 0.562 2.1 56.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 

Station: Davis Island 

Observed data time period from: /12/ 3/1990 to / 6/ 5/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 86015 0.016 

h 86015 -0.012 

H-h 15 cm 24h 86015 0.028 0.114 0.111 0.4 85.4 1.8 7.8 21.1 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 594 0.029 0.115 0.111 0.5 86.9 2.0 0.0 15.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 595 0.035 0.103 0.097 0.3 88.6 1.3 0.0 15.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 594 -0.077 0.760 0.756 9.6 51.2 5.4 26.0 14.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 595 0.082 0.724 0.720 6.7 52.3 6.7 38.0 25.0 

Station: Mckay Bay 

Observed data time period from: / 1/22/1991 to / 2/25/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 37110 0.004 

h 37110 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 37110 0.003 0.115 0.115 1.0 84.4 1.4 6.9 19.7 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 250 0.001 0.117 0.117 2.0 84.8 1.6 0.0 15.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 247 0.010 0.099 0.098 0.0 89.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 250 0.096 0.671 0.665 6.0 57.2 5.2 0.0 15.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 247 0.303 0.729 0.664 2.8 50.6 8.9 0.0 0.0 
- 72 - 

Station: Bay Aristocrat 

Observed data time period from: /10/ 3/1990 to / 1/29/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 78281 0.031 

h 78281 -0.011 

H-h 15 cm 24h 78281 0.042 0.120 0.113 0.4 84.2 2.2 6.3 18.0 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 572 0.031 0.113 0.109 0.3 86.0 2.1 0.0 13.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 570 0.064 0.115 0.096 0.2 84.7 1.6 0.0 14.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 572 0.227 0.723 0.687 3.5 51.6 9.4 0.0 16.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 570 0.289 0.632 0.563 2.3 57.0 6.5 12.0 0.0 

Station: Safety Harbor 

Observed data time period from: / 2/28/1991 to / 6/ 4/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

H 40483 0.008 

h 40483 0.000 

H-h 15 cm 24h 40483 0.007 0.120 0.120 1.2 82.6 1.5 12.4 20.8 0.00 0.95 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 289 0.007 0.121 0.121 1.4 81.7 1.4 0.0 14.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 290 0.020 0.106 0.104 1.0 87.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 289 0.185 0.657 0.631 2.8 55.4 7.6 0.0 14.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 290 0.350 0.673 0.576 1.0 55.5 8.6 0.0 24.0 
- 73 - 

APPENDIX E. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST CURRENT 

SPEED

Station: C-33 t3301s--GandyBrWst 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 5/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14161 0.293 

u 14161 0.208 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14161 0.085 0.160 0.136 0.0 91.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.62 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 76 0.140 0.152 0.059 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 102 0.087 0.112 0.070 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 76 1.043 1.245 0.683 0.0 19.7 50.0 0.0 49.3 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 102 0.911 1.054 0.533 0.0 14.7 35.3 0.0 38.2 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 53 1.528 1.696 0.743 0.0 11.3 79.2 0.0 86.9 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 61 0.070 0.769 0.772 9.8 52.5 8.2 0.0 49.4 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 73 1.487 2.065 1.443 9.6 1.4 84.9 0.0140.3 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 94 0.597 0.859 0.621 2.1 31.9 24.5 0.0 24.9 

Station: C-34 t3401s--FranklndBr 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 5/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14161 0.161 

u 14161 0.122 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14161 0.039 0.078 0.068 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.75 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 79 -0.008 0.067 0.067 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 85 0.093 0.107 0.054 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 79 -0.106 0.811 0.809 13.9 50.6 6.3 48.2 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 85 -0.046 0.601 0.603 5.9 55.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 14 -0.729 0.799 0.340 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 23 0.575 0.616 0.225 0.0 26.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 22 -0.805 0.887 0.382 27.3 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 22 0.558 0.602 0.231 0.0 31.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-35 t3501s--CourtneyBr 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 2/17/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 10321 0.231 

u 10321 0.219 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 10321 0.012 0.131 0.131 0.0 95.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.54 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 35 0.062 0.101 0.080 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 6 -0.121 0.130 0.052 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 35 -0.117 0.843 0.847 17.1 37.1 11.4 24.4 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 6 -0.700 0.894 0.610 33.3 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 15 0.731 1.605 1.479 6.7 40.0 46.7 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 33 0.050 0.732 0.741 12.1 54.5 6.1 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 2 -0.049 2.196 3.105 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 
- 74 - 

Station: C-36 Gadsden Point 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14806 0.047 

u 14806 0.091 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14806 -0.043 0.068 0.053 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.56 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 62 -0.139 0.146 0.044 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 11 -0.110 0.117 0.041 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 62 0.197 0.898 0.883 8.1 40.3 12.9 0.0 24.2 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 11 0.545 1.413 1.367 9.1 18.2 45.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-40 t4001s--Xmas isl 

Observed data time period from: / 3/12/1991 to / 5/17/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 16324 0.274 

u 16324 0.211 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 16324 0.062 0.156 0.143 0.0 91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.56 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 42 0.077 0.112 0.083 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 87 0.053 0.107 0.094 0.0 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 42 0.681 1.069 0.835 2.4 19.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 87 1.167 1.331 0.644 0.0 14.9 60.9 0.0 62.3 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 32 0.717 1.598 1.452 18.8 6.3 62.5 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 33 0.105 1.014 1.024 15.2 33.3 9.1 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 50 1.286 1.772 1.232 8.0 2.0 74.0 0.0 49.5 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 66 0.905 1.225 0.832 1.5 33.3 51.5 0.0 50.2 

Station: C-42 t4201s--Venebian I 

Observed data time period from: / 3/13/1991 to / 5/15/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15633 0.077 

u 15633 0.092 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15633 -0.015 0.046 0.044 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 61 -0.045 0.055 0.032 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 66 -0.052 0.070 0.047 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 61 -0.156 0.646 0.632 9.8 59.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 66 -0.262 1.046 1.020 22.7 40.9 6.1 49.3 0.0 

Station: C-43 t4301s--Old TB Str 

Observed data time period from: / 4/18/1991 to / 5/15/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14944 0.113 

u 14944 0.186 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14944 -0.073 0.110 0.082 0.0 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.65 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 105 -0.165 0.183 0.081 0.0 86.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 57 -0.144 0.160 0.070 0.0 94.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 105 0.122 0.627 0.618 4.8 58.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 57 -0.223 0.900 0.880 10.5 31.6 10.5 0.0 0.0 
- 75 - 

Station: C-44 Intersec Y-cut 

Observed data time period from: / 3/12/1991 to / 5/17/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15842 0.078 

u 15842 0.107 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15842 -0.029 0.058 0.051 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.48 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 36 -0.060 0.072 0.040 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 18 -0.073 0.077 0.024 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 36 -0.556 1.413 1.318 30.6 19.4 13.9 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 18 -0.017 1.219 1.254 22.2 33.3 16.7 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-50 t5001s--Point Pine 

Observed data time period from: / 5/31/1991 to / 6/30/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 7202 0.168 

u 7202 0.189 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 7202 -0.020 0.076 0.073 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 47 -0.049 0.092 0.079 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 31 -0.005 0.057 0.058 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 47 0.106 0.609 0.607 4.3 57.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 31 -0.539 0.885 0.714 25.8 35.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 40 -0.853 1.358 1.070 37.5 22.5 2.5 48.9 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 31 0.309 1.075 1.046 29.0 12.9 19.4 0.0 49.3 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 7 -0.541 1.280 1.253 28.6 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 14 0.008 0.516 0.535 0.0 64.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-51 t5102s--Outer Mana 

Observed data time period from: / 7/ 3/1991 to / 7/24/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 5457 0.179 

u 5457 0.241 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 5457 -0.063 0.112 0.093 0.0 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.75 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 34 -0.098 0.103 0.033 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 19 -0.059 0.099 0.083 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 34 -0.088 0.992 1.003 14.7 47.1 14.7 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 19 -0.311 0.529 0.440 5.3 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 21 -0.479 0.825 0.688 19.0 42.9 4.8 24.2 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 16 1.042 1.144 0.488 0.0 12.5 43.8 0.0 13.3 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 6 -0.848 0.873 0.229 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 12 0.259 1.288 1.318 8.3 66.7 25.0 0.0 0.0 
- 76 - 

Station: C-52 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 7/ 2/1991 to / 8/15/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 5689 0.096 

u 5689 0.108 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 5689 -0.011 0.051 0.050 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 12 -0.068 0.080 0.044 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 20 -0.096 0.104 0.042 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 12 0.550 1.407 1.353 8.3 33.3 33.3 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 20 1.075 1.476 1.037 5.0 25.0 45.0 0.0 49.1 

Station: C-54 t5401s--Waterway L 

Observed data time period from: / 5/28/1991 to / 6/24/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 6482 0.148 

u 6482 0.197 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 6482 -0.049 0.094 0.081 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.70 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 45 -0.082 0.121 0.091 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 19 -0.036 0.062 0.051 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 45 -0.033 1.005 1.016 15.6 53.3 15.6 49.3 11.3 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 19 -0.211 0.611 0.590 10.5 42.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 21 -0.294 0.627 0.567 9.5 52.4 4.8 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 15 0.548 0.591 0.228 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 5 -0.212 0.477 0.477 0.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 14 0.363 0.482 0.330 0.0 57.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-55 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 7/14/1991 to / 8/15/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 2880 0.193 

u 2880 0.281 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 2880 -0.087 0.126 0.091 0.0 96.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.77 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 21 -0.204 0.215 0.068 0.0 71.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 10 -0.208 0.219 0.075 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 21 0.552 1.190 1.081 9.5 23.8 38.1 0.0 33.8 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 10 -0.040 0.731 0.769 10.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 13 -0.772 1.057 0.752 30.8 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 15 0.930 1.167 0.730 0.0 26.7 40.0 0.0 63.6 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 5 -0.786 1.061 0.797 40.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 6 1.292 1.325 0.326 0.0 0.0 83.3 0.0 0.0 
- 77 - 

Station: C-02 Inner Egmont (REF) 

Observed data time period from: / 1/20/1991 to / 3/ 4/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 13806 0.381 

u 13806 0.449 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 13806 -0.068 0.147 0.130 0.3 93.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.90 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 96 -0.160 0.196 0.113 0.0 80.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 66 -0.183 0.197 0.072 0.0 84.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 96 0.117 0.753 0.748 4.2 52.1 8.3 0.0 10.4 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 66 -0.039 0.509 0.511 4.5 60.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 85 -0.237 0.654 0.613 9.4 63.5 5.9 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 85 0.197 0.708 0.684 3.5 60.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 61 -0.145 0.656 0.645 6.6 63.9 3.3 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 62 0.217 0.530 0.487 0.0 71.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-04 Port Manatee Entranc 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 8/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14881 0.286 

u 14881 0.296 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14881 -0.010 0.087 0.086 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.92 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 109 -0.027 0.079 0.074 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 73 -0.057 0.075 0.050 0.0 98.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 109 -0.225 0.720 0.688 11.0 53.2 0.9 13.3 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 73 0.136 0.599 0.587 1.4 61.6 6.8 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 104 0.061 0.656 0.656 4.8 58.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 98 0.044 0.753 0.756 4.1 54.1 8.2 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 63 -0.020 0.699 0.704 4.8 58.7 7.9 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 70 0.168 0.442 0.411 0.0 85.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-05 Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 8/15/1990 to /10/20/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15842 0.369 

u 15842 0.394 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15842 -0.025 0.111 0.108 0.0 97.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.92 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 113 -0.076 0.094 0.055 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 96 -0.093 0.104 0.046 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 113 0.196 0.651 0.624 5.3 64.6 8.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 96 -0.129 0.605 0.594 9.4 57.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 106 0.294 0.595 0.519 1.9 68.9 6.6 0.0 6.7 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 104 0.307 0.710 0.644 3.8 59.6 4.8 0.0 24.8 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 87 0.060 0.676 0.677 6.9 69.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 94 -0.062 0.570 0.570 6.4 73.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 
- 78 - 

Station: C-13 Sun Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 7/11/1990 to / 8/13/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 7904 0.271 

u 7904 0.217 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 7904 0.054 0.109 0.095 0.0 98.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.84 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 60 0.024 0.081 0.078 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 41 0.146 0.169 0.086 0.0 97.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 60 -0.210 0.608 0.576 6.7 63.3 3.3 11.3 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 41 -0.212 0.463 0.417 2.4 70.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 38 0.571 0.794 0.559 0.0 36.8 21.1 0.0 72.6 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 56 -0.426 0.805 0.689 23.2 44.6 0.0 35.5 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 36 -0.014 0.701 0.711 5.6 47.2 5.6 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 28 -0.725 0.974 0.663 39.3 25.0 0.0 98.8 0.0 

Station: C-14 Beacon Key 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1990 to / 8/10/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15122 0.185 

u 15122 0.257 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15122 -0.071 0.143 0.125 0.3 90.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.78 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 86 -0.086 0.148 0.122 0.0 83.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 69 -0.173 0.247 0.177 4.3 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 86 0.042 0.713 0.716 9.3 54.7 10.5 24.3 13.7 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 69 0.067 0.705 0.707 4.3 53.6 10.1 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 62 0.352 0.632 0.529 0.0 69.4 9.7 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 59 0.144 0.507 0.491 1.7 69.5 3.4 0.0 24.8 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 41 0.197 0.709 0.690 4.9 51.2 4.9 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 45 0.117 0.579 0.573 4.4 75.6 6.7 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-15 Mangrove Pt., Cut E 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 6/1990 to / 8/ 9/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15362 0.207 

u 15362 0.259 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15362 -0.053 0.138 0.128 0.1 92.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.77 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 94 -0.116 0.183 0.142 0.0 72.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 59 -0.064 0.185 0.175 1.7 79.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 94 -0.122 0.680 0.672 7.4 54.3 7.4 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 59 -0.227 0.799 0.772 15.3 55.9 6.8 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 58 0.664 0.809 0.466 0.0 37.9 24.1 0.0 6.6 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 57 0.147 0.506 0.489 1.8 70.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 35 0.022 0.756 0.766 8.6 62.9 5.7 24.5 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 39 -0.200 0.739 0.721 12.8 66.7 2.6 73.3 0.0 
- 79 - 

Station: C-20 Southwest Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 8/16/1990 to /10/18/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15122 0.325 

u 15122 0.326 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15122 -0.002 0.093 0.093 0.0 98.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 91 -0.022 0.071 0.068 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 84 -0.060 0.096 0.075 0.0 98.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 91 0.146 0.807 0.798 7.7 52.7 7.7 0.0 24.9 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 84 -0.209 0.522 0.481 2.4 57.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 82 0.102 0.465 0.457 1.2 76.8 4.9 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 79 0.071 0.620 0.620 5.1 63.3 6.3 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 71 0.038 0.639 0.642 4.2 77.5 2.8 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 80 -0.095 0.484 0.477 3.8 71.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-21 PassageKey 

Observed data time period from: / 8/16/1990 to / 9/ 9/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 5762 0.238 

u 5762 0.312 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 5762 -0.074 0.123 0.098 0.0 96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.82 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 31 -0.138 0.146 0.048 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 32 -0.156 0.193 0.114 0.0 84.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 31 0.019 0.650 0.660 6.5 51.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 32 -0.509 0.659 0.425 3.1 34.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 28 -0.842 0.935 0.416 35.7 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 23 0.227 0.595 0.562 0.0 78.3 8.7 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 24 -0.722 0.932 0.602 29.2 33.3 0.0 71.8 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 24 -0.124 0.354 0.339 0.0 91.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-22 t2201s--Anna Maria 

Observed data time period from: / 8/16/1990 to / 9/18/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 7922 0.070 

u 7922 0.115 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 7922 -0.045 0.070 0.053 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.61 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 20 -0.067 0.076 0.037 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 15 -0.094 0.102 0.041 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 20 0.090 1.100 1.124 15.0 30.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 15 -0.913 1.562 1.311 40.0 6.7 6.7 24.9 0.0 
- 80 - 

Station: C-23 Mullet Key 

Observed data time period from: / 8/15/1990 to /10/18/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15362 0.317 

u 15362 0.314 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15362 0.004 0.091 0.091 0.0 99.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 116 -0.050 0.090 0.075 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 85 -0.021 0.063 0.060 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 116 0.056 0.774 0.776 8.6 58.6 10.3 17.3 49.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 85 -0.187 0.520 0.488 5.9 67.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 107 0.125 0.597 0.586 2.8 68.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 106 0.034 0.573 0.575 3.8 63.2 1.9 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 79 -0.089 0.709 0.708 8.9 78.5 2.5 23.9 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 83 -0.139 0.545 0.530 6.0 66.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-27 Penlopen Point 

Observed data time period from: /10/23/1990 to /12/26/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 15361 0.065 

u 15361 0.076 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 15361 -0.011 0.066 0.065 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.38 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 31 -0.058 0.080 0.055 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 4 -0.025 0.058 0.061 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 31 -0.035 1.445 1.469 25.8 25.8 25.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 4 -1.075 1.343 0.929 25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: C-30 Cut J Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 3/14/1991 to / 5/20/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 16082 0.266 

u 16082 0.303 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 16082 -0.037 0.086 0.078 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.93 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 102 -0.109 0.126 0.063 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 92 -0.077 0.090 0.047 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 102 -0.233 0.535 0.484 4.9 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 92 0.009 0.812 0.816 9.8 50.0 12.0 24.7 24.9 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 95 0.049 0.602 0.603 7.4 69.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 89 0.355 0.571 0.451 1.1 57.3 4.5 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 80 -0.481 0.886 0.749 17.5 41.3 3.8 12.6 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 87 0.070 0.562 0.561 1.1 81.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 
- 81 - 

Station: C-32 t3201s--GandyBrEst 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 5/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

U 14161 0.229 

u 14161 0.171 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 14161 0.058 0.089 0.068 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.80 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 67 0.055 0.070 0.044 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 103 0.084 0.104 0.061 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 67 -0.004 0.703 0.708 4.5 61.2 9.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 103 0.084 0.564 0.560 1.9 55.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 46 1.114 1.451 0.940 0.0 17.4 50.0 0.0 48.3 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 48 -0.970 1.237 0.777 47.9 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 65 1.246 1.527 0.890 0.0 16.9 60.0 0.0 49.8 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 80 -0.504 0.807 0.634 17.5 36.3 0.0 6.9 0.0 

 
- 82 - 

 
- 83 - 

APPENDIX F. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST TEMPERATURE 

Station: 06 Gulf of Mexico 

Observed data time period from: /10/27/1990 to / 1/ 2/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 31572 21.982 

t 31572 20.703 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 31572 1.279 1.556 0.885 0.0 90.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.75 

Station: 01 Outer Egmont 

Observed data time period from: /10/27/1990 to /12/28/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 43207 26.356 

t 43207 26.350 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 43207 0.006 1.507 1.507 0.0 98.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.96 

Station:02 Inner Egmont 

Observed data time period from: / 3/12/1991 to / 5/28/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 78572 25.020 

t 78572 24.615 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 78572 0.405 1.019 0.935 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: S1 outer Egmont Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 8/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 51966 25.354 

t 51966 24.937 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 51966 0.417 0.972 0.878 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 20 Southwest Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 8/15/1990 to /10/19/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 15582 29.152 

t 15582 29.121 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 15582 0.030 0.451 0.450 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.97 
- 84 - 

Station: 21 PassageKey 

Observed data time period from: / 8/15/1990 to /10/23/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16514 29.007 

t 16514 28.530 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16514 0.477 0.672 0.474 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

Station: 22 Anna Maria 

Observed data time period from: / 8/19/1990 to / 9/25/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 8789 29.979 

t 8789 29.953 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 8789 0.026 0.799 0.799 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.54 

Station: 23 Mullet Key 

Observed data time period from: / 8/14/1990 to /10/19/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 15864 29.383 

t 15864 29.197 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 15864 0.186 0.500 0.464 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.96 

Station: 54 Waterway L 

Observed data time period from: / 5/27/1991 to / 7/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 9773 28.979 

t 9773 29.421 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 9773 -0.441 0.845 0.720 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.85 

Station: 56 Egmont Chan 2 

Observed data time period from: / 5/29/1991 to / 7/ 9/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 9806 28.831 

t 9806 29.487 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 9806 -0.656 0.973 0.718 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.81 
- 85 - 

Station: 26 ManateeRiv 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 6/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14429 19.933 

t 14429 21.052 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14429 -1.119 1.235 0.522 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.88 

Station: 51 Outer Mana 

Observed data time period from: / 5/30/1991 to / 7/ 1/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 13186 29.776 

t 13186 29.640 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 13186 0.136 0.625 0.610 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

Station: 04 Port Manatee Entranc 

Observed data time period from: / 3/12/1991 to / 5/29/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 73484 25.790 

t 73484 25.307 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 73484 0.484 0.746 0.568 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 55 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 5/30/1991 to / 7/12/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 13168 29.804 

t 13168 29.599 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 13168 0.204 0.545 0.506 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.92 

Station: 52 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 6/ 8/1991 to / 7/ 1/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 8216 29.359 

t 8216 29.120 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 8216 0.238 0.558 0.505 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.93 
- 86 - 

Station: 53 Inner Mana 

Observed data time period from: / 5/30/1991 to / 7/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 13206 29.679 

t 13206 29.579 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 13206 0.100 0.642 0.634 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

Station: 24 PinellasBu 

Observed data time period from: / 8/20/1990 to /10/24/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 15783 28.885 

t 15783 28.944 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 15783 -0.058 0.665 0.663 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.94 

Station: 42 Venebian I 

Observed data time period from: / 3/13/1991 to / 5/21/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16513 24.897 

t 16513 24.596 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16513 0.301 0.596 0.515 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 44 Intersec Y-cut 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/20/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16758 24.806 

t 16758 24.471 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16758 0.335 0.572 0.464 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 30 Cut J Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 3/13/1991 to / 5/20/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16288 25.182 

t 16288 24.950 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16288 0.232 0.591 0.544 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 
- 87 - 

Station: 36 Gadsden Point 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 4/1991 to / 3/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14814 20.133 

t 14814 19.335 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14814 0.799 0.875 0.356 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

Station: 31 Cut C Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14776 20.123 

t 14776 19.310 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14776 0.812 0.899 0.385 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

Station: 46 AlphiaRv 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/22/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 17214 24.967 

t 17214 24.847 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 17214 0.119 0.628 0.617 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 27 PinellasPt 

Observed data time period from: /10/22/1990 to /12/27/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 15750 21.927 

t 15750 21.091 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 15750 0.836 0.973 0.498 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.95 

Station: 40 Xmas Is 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/21/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16950 25.232 

t 16950 24.928 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16950 0.304 0.653 0.577 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 
- 88 - 

Station: 41 Pinic I, Cut K 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/21/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16972 25.200 

t 16972 24.771 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16972 0.429 0.697 0.549 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 43 Old TB Str 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/21/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16939 25.321 

t 16939 25.046 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16939 0.275 0.691 0.634 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 05 Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/23/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 79706 25.286 

t 79706 25.102 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 79706 0.184 1.034 1.017 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.99 

Station: 33 GandyBrWst 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 4/1991 to / 3/ 6/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14707 20.160 

t 14707 19.214 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14707 0.947 1.008 0.345 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

Station: 32 GandyBrEst 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 3/1991 to / 3/ 6/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14875 20.195 

t 14875 19.231 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14875 0.964 1.026 0.353 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 
- 89 - 

Station: 34 FranklndBr 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 3/1991 to / 3/ 6/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 14910 20.219 

t 14910 19.194 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 14910 1.025 1.085 0.355 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.89 

Station: 35 CourtneyBr 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 3/1991 to / 3/14/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

T 16710 20.174 

t 16710 19.220 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 16710 0.954 1.045 0.427 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.90 

 
- 90 - 

 
- 91 - 

APPENDIX G. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR HINDCAST SALINITY 

Station: 02 Inner Egmont 

Observed data time period from: / 3/12/1991 to / 5/28/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 52030 35.158 

s 52030 34.783 

S-s 3.5 24h 52030 0.375 0.688 0.577 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.52 

Station: S1 outer Egmont Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 5/1991 to / 3/ 8/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 51966 35.102 

s 51966 35.287 

S-s 3.5 24h 51966 -0.184 0.704 0.679 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 

Station: 21 PassageKey 

Observed data time period from: / 8/15/1990 to /10/23/1990 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 16469 35.134 

s 16469 35.447 

S-s 3.5 24h 16469 -0.313 0.657 0.578 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

Station: 52 Manatee Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 5/28/1991 to / 7/ 1/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 8261 33.084 

s 8261 32.560 

S-s 3.5 24h 8261 0.524 0.702 0.468 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

Station: 53 Inner Mana 

Observed data time period from: / 5/30/1991 to / 7/ 7/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 13195 31.950 

s 13195 31.722 

S-s 3.5 24h 13195 0.228 0.803 0.770 0.0 98.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.88 
- 92 - 

Station: 30 Cut J Channel 

Observed data time period from: / 3/13/1991 to / 5/20/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 16278 30.278 

s 16278 28.955 

S-s 3.5 24h 16278 1.323 1.347 0.250 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.27 

Station: 46 AlphiaRv 

Observed data time period from: / 3/11/1991 to / 5/22/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 17214 28.585 

s 17214 28.937 

S-s 3.5 24h 17214 -0.352 0.597 0.483 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 

Station: 34 FranklndBr 

Observed data time period from: / 1/ 3/1991 to / 3/ 6/1991 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: HINDCAST 

S 14838 28.795 

s 14838 28.380 

S-s 3.5 24h 14838 0.415 0.507 0.290 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.41 
- 93 - 

APPENDIX H. COMPARISON OF TIDAL CONSTITUENT AMPLITUDES AND 

EPOCHS FOR CURRENTS 

M2 S2 N2 K1 O1 M4 

amp pha amp pha amp pha amp pha amp pha amp pha 

 

Cortez 

 Obs. 16.4 145.7 7.1 156.1 3.3 147.6 11.1 32.0 13.3 18.6 0.3 103.3 

 Model 15.5 144.1 5.8 157.3 3.1 141.2 14.6 25.7 13.7 17.4 0.3 136.9 

Obs-Model 0.9 1.6 1.3 -1.2 0.2 6.4 -3.5 6.3 -0.4 1.2 0.0 -33.6 

 

Anna Maria Outside 

 Obs. 18.6 116.2 6.5 144.2 3.8 100.7 16.8 23.9 13.6 2.7 0.5 37.3 

 Model 17.9 117.9 7.0 129.5 3.8 114.7 15.1 9.4 14.0 2.1 0.2 23.5 

Obs-Model 0.7 -1.7 -0.5 14.7 0.0 -14.0 1.7 14.5 -0.4 0.6 0.3 13.8 

 

Desoto Point 

 Obs. 16.7 148.7 4.8 180.7 3.6 135.1 16.1 41.2 14.1 21.2 0.4 126.5 

 Model 16.4 146.8 6.2 160.2 3.3 143.9 15.1 25.8 14.2 17.0 0.3 151.1 

Obs-Model 0.3 1.9 -1.4 20.5 0.3 -8.8 1.0 15.4 -0.1 4.2 0.1 -24.6 

 

Egmont Key 

 Obs. 16.1 130.8 7.1 134.2 3.7 127.7 11.4 13.4 13.5 11.5 1.1 58.1 

 Model 16.2 132.9 6.2 145.3 3.3 129.8 15.0 19.7 14.0 10.9 0.5 71.9 

Obs-Model -0.1 -2.1 0.9 -11.1 0.4 -2.1 -3.6 -6.3 -0.5 0.6 0.6 -13.8 

 

Mulet Key 

 Obs. 15.5 137.1 5.8 151.4 3.0 131.8 15.6 26.1 13.9 13.5 0.6 67.8 

 Model 15.0 140.7 5.7 153.2 3.1 137.5 14.8 24.3 13.9 15.3 0.5 71.2 

Obs-Model 0.5 -3.6 0.1 -1.8 -0.1 -5.7 0.8 1.8 0.0 -1.8 0.1 -3.4 

 

Port Manatee 

 Obs. 15.2 170.8 5.2 186.8 2.9 165.9 16.5 39.8 14.4 30.3 0.4 172.0 

 Model 15.0 172.5 5.3 186.1 2.9 168.0 15.2 37.7 14.4 28.0 0.3 192.4 

Obs-Model 0.2 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 0.0 -2.1 1.3 2.1 0.0 2.3 0.1 -20.4 

 

Tierra Verde 

 Obs. 16.8 145.6 6.3 164.1 3.3 141.1 13.5 35.2 14.1 19.4 0.5 76.2 

 Model 14.2 157.3 5.3 169.0 2.9 153.4 14.9 33.1 14.0 23.3 0.5 122.7 

Obs-Model 2.6 -11.7 1.0 -4.9 0.4 -12.3 -1.4 2.1 0.1 -3.9 0.0 -46.5 

 

St. Petersburg 

 Obs. 16.0 198.1 5.3 217.3 3.0 192.3 16.9 52.4 14.8 38.8 0.3 253.8 

 Model 15.1 199.3 5.2 214.9 2.8 194.2 15.7 49.8 14.8 38.8 0.3 266.3 

Obs-Model 0.9 -1.2 0.1 2.4 0.2 -1.9 1.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -12.5 

 

Apollo Beach 

 Obs. 19.6 197.5 5.3 224.9 3.7 185.6 18.6 56.4 15.7 38.4 0.8 275.0 

 Model 17.9 200.8 6.3 218.0 3.3 197.2 16.3 49.5 15.3 38.6 0.8 287.4 

Obs-Model 1.7 -3.3 -1.0 6.9 0.4 -11.6 2.3 6.9 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -12.4 

 

Gandy Bridge 

 Obs. 18.2 228.8 7.3 243.9 3.3 230.3 18.0 60.4 15.3 48.9 0.4 343.7 

 Model 17.6 232.4 6.0 253.6 3.1 228.7 16.8 64.5 15.8 51.7 0.5 4.5 

Obs-Model 0.6 -3.6 1.3 -9.7 0.2 1.6 1.2 -4.1 -0.5 -2.8 -0.1 20.8 

 

Davis Island 

 Obs. 18.1 207.9 6.9 225.1 3.3 201.5 18.6 53.0 15.3 46.1 1.0 287.3 

 Model 19.2 204.1 6.8 221.1 3.5 200.9 16.8 51.0 15.6 39.9 1.1 297.2 

Obs-Model -1.1 3.8 0.1 4.0 -0.2 0.6 1.8 2.0 -0.3 6.2 -0.1 -9.9 

 

Mckay Bay Ent 

 Obs. 18.0 201.4 7.2 225.9 3.6 183.1 18.3 45.3 15.2 45.3 0.9 283.9 

 Model 19.4 205.0 6.9 222.2 3.5 202.0 16.8 51.3 15.7 40.3 1.2 299.6 

Obs-Model -1.4 -3.6 0.3 3.7 0.1 -18.9 1.5 -6.0 -0.5 5.0 -0.3 -15.7 

 

Bay Aristocrat Villa 

 Obs. 21.2 236.0 5.2 249.6 4.3 236.7 18.5 58.7 15.2 58.8 0.9 355.3 

 Model 19.7 241.5 6.6 264.4 3.3 238.4 17.6 68.9 16.3 55.4 0.9 21.9 

Obs-Model 1.5 -5.5 -1.4 -14.8 1.0 -1.7 0.9 -10.2 -1.1 3.4 0.0 26.6 
- 94 - 

 Clearwater Beach 

 Obs. 24.3 122.9 9.4 140.4 4.8 116.9 15.4 11.3 14.6 4.9 1.0 76.1 

 Model 24.0 123.3 9.4 140.7 4.5 120.6 15.9 12.5 15.1 3.5 0.9 74.0 

Obs-Model 0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 -3.7 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 1.4 0.1 2.1 

 

Safety Harbor 

 Obs. 21.4 242.9 8.0 250.6 3.7 252.4 18.5 63.6 15.6 54.3 0.9 15.0 

 Model 20.1 245.9 6.8 269.4 3.4 243.4 17.8 71.0 16.5 57.5 1.0 31.0 

Obs-Model 1.3 -3.0 1.2 -18.8 0.3 9.0 0.7 -7.4 -0.9 -3.2 -0.1 -16.0 

 

Venice Pier 

 Obs. 17.0 117.6 6.6 129.0 3.8 111.2 13.3 15.8 13.4 3.9 0.2 53.9 

 Model 16.9 117.5 6.6 125.7 3.7 111.3 14.6 8.5 13.6 3.2 0.2 57.9 

Obs-Model 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 7.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 -4.0 
- 95 - 

APPENDIX I. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPEATIONAL 

WATER LEVELS 

NOWCASTS

Station: Mckay Bay Ent 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

H 23102 0.077 

h 23102 0.030 

H-h 15 cm 24h 23102 0.047 0.075 0.058 0.0 97.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.06 0.98 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 167 0.047 0.073 0.056 0.0 98.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 166 0.051 0.070 0.048 0.0 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 167 0.108 0.569 0.560 1.8 62.3 4.2 12.4 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 166 0.158 0.726 0.710 7.8 53.6 7.2 14.4 0.0 

Station: Port Manatee 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

H 23102 0.048 

h 23102 0.057 

H-h 15 cm 24h 23102 -0.009 0.047 0.046 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 147 -0.015 0.047 0.045 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 145 0.000 0.047 0.047 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 147 -0.090 0.579 0.574 4.1 66.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 145 -0.048 0.491 0.490 3.4 67.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: St. Petersburg 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

H 23102 0.054 

h 23102 0.061 

H-h 15 cm 24h 23102 -0.008 0.050 0.050 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 146 -0.020 0.052 0.048 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 145 0.006 0.047 0.047 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 146 -0.090 0.500 0.494 2.1 69.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 145 0.063 0.443 0.440 2.1 78.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 
- 96 - 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

H 23102 0.056 

h 23102 0.058 

H-h 15 cm 24h 23102 -0.002 0.049 0.049 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.00 0.99 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 157 -0.009 0.050 0.049 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 156 0.012 0.045 0.044 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 157 0.055 0.427 0.425 0.6 77.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 156 0.038 0.369 0.368 0.6 78.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 

FORECASTS

Station: Mckay Bay Ent 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

H00-h00 15 cm 24h 296 0.045 0.071 0.055 0.0 96.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H06-h06 15 cm 24h 296 0.019 0.060 0.057 0.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H12-h12 15 cm 24h 296 0.025 0.061 0.055 0.0 98.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H18-h18 15 cm 24h 296 0.026 0.061 0.056 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H24-h24 15 cm 24h 296 0.025 0.059 0.053 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 122 0.014 0.055 0.053 0.0 98.4 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 120 0.041 0.064 0.049 0.0 99.2 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 122 0.131 0.549 0.536 0.8 68.9 5.7 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 120 0.094 0.621 0.617 8.3 64.2 4.2 

Station: Port Manatee 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

H00-h00 15 cm 24h 296 -0.009 0.049 0.048 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H06-h06 15 cm 24h 296 -0.016 0.052 0.050 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H12-h12 15 cm 24h 296 -0.015 0.051 0.049 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H18-h18 15 cm 24h 296 -0.014 0.051 0.049 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H24-h24 15 cm 24h 296 -0.014 0.051 0.049 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 103 -0.026 0.049 0.042 0.0 100.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 102 -0.001 0.049 0.050 0.0 99.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 103 -0.102 0.551 0.544 2.9 68.0 4.9 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 102 -0.054 0.487 0.486 2.9 70.6 2.0 
- 97 - 

Station: St. Petersburg 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

H00-h00 15 cm 24h 296 -0.011 0.052 0.051 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H06-h06 15 cm 24h 296 -0.011 0.053 0.052 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H12-h12 15 cm 24h 296 -0.010 0.051 0.050 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H18-h18 15 cm 24h 296 -0.010 0.052 0.051 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H24-h24 15 cm 24h 296 -0.010 0.050 0.049 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 100 -0.024 0.050 0.044 0.0 98.0 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 98 0.008 0.050 0.050 0.0 99.0 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 100 -0.125 0.496 0.483 3.0 81.0 1.0 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 98 0.101 0.445 0.435 1.0 79.6 3.1 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.00 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

H00-h00 15 cm 24h 296 -0.006 0.050 0.049 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H06-h06 15 cm 24h 296 -0.010 0.052 0.051 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H12-h12 15 cm 24h 296 -0.008 0.051 0.050 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H18-h18 15 cm 24h 296 -0.009 0.052 0.051 0.0 98.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

H24-h24 15 cm 24h 296 -0.009 0.049 0.048 0.0 99.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 

AHW-ahw 15 cm 24h 109 -0.020 0.054 0.050 0.0 96.3 0.0 

ALW-alw 15 cm 24h 108 0.008 0.048 0.048 0.0 99.1 0.0 

THW-thw 0.50 h 25h 109 0.026 0.435 0.436 0.9 78.0 2.8 

TLW-tlw 0.50 h 25h 108 0.070 0.345 0.340 0.0 86.1 0.9 

 
- 98 - 

 
- 99 - 

APPENDIX J. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPEATIONAL 

CURRENT SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS 

NOWCASTS

Station: Sunshine Skyway Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010with gaps of 0.42 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

D 23002 137.451 

d 23002 135.564 

D-d 22.5 dg 24h 23002 -0.613 6.197 6.167 0.0 99.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.91 

DFC-dfc 22.5 dg 24h 177 -2.104 4.613 4.117 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DEC-dec 22.5 dg 24h 110 0.198 3.199 3.207 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: Sunshine Skyway Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.42 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

U 23002 0.347 

u 23002 0.412 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 23002 -0.065 0.121 0.102 0.0 97.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.94 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 177 -0.175 0.189 0.073 0.0 89.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 110 -0.097 0.139 0.100 0.0 98.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 177 0.141 0.621 0.607 2.8 58.2 7.3 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 110 -0.006 0.608 0.611 7.3 51.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 164 0.120 0.533 0.521 1.2 65.9 3.0 0.0 24.2 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 169 0.463 0.640 0.443 0.0 56.2 6.5 0.0 25.4 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 106 -0.391 0.483 0.285 2.8 65.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 106 0.147 0.292 0.253 0.0 92.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010with gaps of 0.43 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

D 23001 112.089 

d 23001 118.237 

D-d 22.5 dg 24h 23001 -2.805 8.422 7.941 0.1 99.8 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.93 

DFC-dfc 22.5 dg 24h 147 1.207 2.332 2.003 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DEC-dec 22.5 dg 24h 108 -11.659 11.783 1.716 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 
- 100 - 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.43 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

U 23001 0.295 

u 23001 0.374 

U-u 26 cm/s 24h 23001 -0.079 0.123 0.094 0.0 98.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.88 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 147 -0.128 0.140 0.058 0.0 98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 108 -0.214 0.223 0.063 0.0 76.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 147 -0.216 0.665 0.631 6.8 59.2 4.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 108 -0.157 0.792 0.780 13.9 52.8 5.6 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 134 -0.244 0.570 0.517 2.2 65.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 132 0.213 0.762 0.734 1.5 85.6 6.8 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 89 -0.543 0.759 0.534 18.0 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 89 -0.057 0.436 0.435 0.0 88.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 

FORECASTS

Station: Sunshine Skyway Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010with gaps of 0.42 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

D00-d00 22.5 dg 24h 161 -1.497 4.941 4.723 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D06-d06 22.5 dg 24h 158 -1.664 4.760 4.474 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D12-d12 22.5 dg 24h 157 -1.317 4.978 4.816 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D18-d18 22.5 dg 24h 160 -1.629 5.446 5.213 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D24-d24 22.5 dg 24h 164 -1.606 5.332 5.099 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DFC-dfc 22.5 dg 24h 120 -2.024 4.545 4.087 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DEC-dec 22.5 dg 24h 74 0.127 3.359 3.380 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: Sunshine Skyway Bridge 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.42 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

U00-u00 26 cm/s 24h 161 -0.101 0.137 0.093 0.0 97.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U06-u06 26 cm/s 24h 158 -0.112 0.154 0.107 0.0 91.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U12-u12 26 cm/s 24h 157 -0.108 0.151 0.105 0.0 91.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U18-u18 26 cm/s 24h 160 -0.109 0.154 0.109 0.0 91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U24-u24 26 cm/s 24h 164 -0.110 0.151 0.104 0.0 92.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 120 -0.200 0.215 0.079 0.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 74 -0.100 0.150 0.112 0.0 95.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 120 0.049 0.607 0.607 5.0 54.2 5.8 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 74 0.046 0.524 0.526 4.1 66.2 2.7 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 111 0.102 0.531 0.524 0.9 67.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 115 0.420 0.634 0.477 0.0 49.6 7.8 0.0 8.7 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 72 -0.451 0.566 0.344 5.6 55.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 72 0.151 0.298 0.259 0.0 91.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 
- 101 - 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010with gaps of 0.43 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

D00-d00 22.5 dg 24h 172 -4.879 7.654 5.915 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D06-d06 22.5 dg 24h 167 -4.640 7.605 6.043 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D12-d12 22.5 dg 24h 162 -4.709 7.690 6.098 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D18-d18 22.5 dg 24h 162 -4.500 7.682 6.245 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

D24-d24 22.5 dg 24h 167 -4.574 7.653 6.154 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DFC-dfc 22.5 dg 24h 101 0.980 2.248 2.033 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

DEC-dec 22.5 dg 24h 74 -11.455 11.567 1.612 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: Old Port Tampa 

Observed data time period from: / 4/10/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.43 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

U00-u00 26 cm/s 24h 172 -0.116 0.137 0.072 0.0 97.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U06-u06 26 cm/s 24h 167 -0.118 0.139 0.073 0.0 97.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U12-u12 26 cm/s 24h 162 -0.121 0.144 0.077 0.0 98.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U18-u18 26 cm/s 24h 162 -0.120 0.144 0.079 0.0 98.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

U24-u24 26 cm/s 24h 167 -0.121 0.145 0.080 0.0 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AFC-afc 26 cm/s 24h 101 -0.134 0.148 0.063 0.0 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

AEC-aec 26 cm/s 24h 74 -0.214 0.223 0.065 0.0 77.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TFC-tfc 0.50h 25h 101 -0.301 0.638 0.566 5.9 57.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 

TEC-tec 0.50h 25h 74 -0.153 0.810 0.801 12.2 55.4 6.8 0.0 0.0 

TSF-tsf 0.25h 25h 90 -0.254 0.610 0.557 6.7 65.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 

TEF-tef 0.25h 25h 85 0.075 0.544 0.542 1.2 90.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 

TSE-tse 0.25h 25h 62 -0.511 0.771 0.583 19.4 50.0 0.0 74.2 0.0 

TEE-tee 0.25h 25h 63 0.011 0.521 0.525 0.0 85.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 

 
- 102 - 

 
- 103 - 

APPENDIX K. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPEATIONAL 

SURFACE TEMPERATURE 

Station: NDBC Buoy 42013 C10 

Observed data time period from: / 4/15/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 1.60 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

T 21702 28.590 

t 21702 26.786 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 21702 1.805 3.086 2.504 0.0 75.8 7.2 0.0 62.5 0.78 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

T00-t00 3.0 c 24h 279 1.644 2.691 2.134 0.0 77.8 5.0 0.0 0.0 

T06-t06 3.0 c 24h 279 1.412 2.378 1.917 0.0 82.8 2.9 0.0 0.0 

T12-t12 3.0 c 24h 280 1.384 2.319 1.864 0.0 82.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 

T18-t18 3.0 c 24h 280 1.346 2.348 1.927 0.0 82.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 

T24-t24 3.0 c 24h 280 1.219 2.214 1.851 0.0 82.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 

Station: St. Petersburg 

Observed data time period from: / 4/15/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 0.65 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

T 21747 29.547 

t 21747 30.233 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 21747 -0.687 1.541 1.379 0.3 97.4 0.1 5.5 1.0 0.91 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

T00-t00 3.0 c 24h 278 -0.693 1.499 1.331 0.0 97.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T06-t06 3.0 c 24h 278 -0.915 1.481 1.166 0.0 98.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T12-t12 3.0 c 24h 278 -0.978 1.509 1.152 0.0 97.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T18-t18 3.0 c 24h 278 -1.004 1.534 1.162 0.0 97.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T24-t24 3.0 c 24h 278 -1.120 1.493 0.989 0.0 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Station: Campbell Park, FL, NDBC 

Observed data time period from: / 4/15/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 2.53 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

T 21487 29.496 

t 21487 26.952 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 21487 2.544 3.015 1.619 0.2 62.1 1.5 4.2 5.3 0.68 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

T00-t00 3.0 c 24h 274 2.525 2.940 1.508 0.0 65.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 

T06-t06 3.0 c 24h 274 2.313 2.731 1.454 0.0 70.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 

T12-t12 3.0 c 24h 274 2.280 2.717 1.480 0.0 69.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 

T18-t18 3.0 c 24h 274 2.254 2.725 1.534 0.0 72.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 

T24-t24 3.0 c 24h 273 2.139 2.553 1.397 0.0 74.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 
- 104 - 

Station: Frog Creek, FL NDBC 

Observed data time period from: / 4/15/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 1.60 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

T 21902 29.407 

t 21902 29.874 

T-t 3.0 c 24h 21902 -0.467 1.986 1.930 0.3 92.0 0.1 4.7 2.1 0.88 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

T00-t00 3.0 c 24h 280 -0.174 1.823 1.818 0.0 92.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 

T06-t06 3.0 c 24h 280 -0.342 1.689 1.657 0.0 93.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T12-t12 3.0 c 24h 280 -0.333 1.714 1.684 0.0 92.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T18-t18 3.0 c 24h 280 -0.339 1.716 1.685 0.0 92.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 

T24-t24 3.0 c 24h 280 -0.392 1.749 1.707 0.0 91.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

 
- 105 - 

APPENDIX L. SKILL ASSESSMENT SCORE TABLES FOR SEME-OPEATIONAL 

SURFACE SALINITY 

Station: NDBC Buoy 42013 C10 

Observed data time period from: / 4/15/2010 to / 7/18/2010 with gaps of 1.30 days 

Data gap is filled using SVD method 

Data are not filtered 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

VARIABLE X N IMAX SM RMSE SD NOF CF POF MDNO MDPO WOF SKILL 

CRITERION - - - - - - <1% >90% <1% <N <N <.5% 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL NOWCAST 

S 21772 35.424 

s 21772 35.120 

S-s 3.5 24h 21772 0.304 0.811 0.752 0.2 99.7 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.43 

 SCENARIO: SEMI-OPERATIONAL FORECAST 

S00-s00 3.5 24h 280 0.373 0.576 0.441 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

S06-s06 3.5 24h 280 0.356 0.566 0.440 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

S12-s12 3.5 24h 280 0.344 0.555 0.437 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

S18-s18 3.5 24h 280 0.333 0.557 0.448 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

S24-s24 3.5 24h 280 0.321 0.585 0.490 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0