### AEO2015



## Table 8. 2 . Cost and performance characteristics of new central station electricity generating technologies

Contingency Factors

Technology Online

Year 1 Size

(MW) Lead

time

(years) Base

Overnight

Cost in

2014

(201 3

$/kW) Project

Contin

g ency

Factor 2 Techno

logical

Optimism

Factor 3 Total

Overnight

Cost in 2014 4

(201 3 $/kW) Variable

O&M 5

(2013

$/ mWh) Fixed

O& M

( 2013 $/

kW/yr.) Heatrate

6 in 2014

(Btu/

kWh) nth

- of

- a

kind

Heatrate

(Btu/ kWh

Scrubbed Coal New 2018 1300 4 2,726 1.07 1.00 2,917 4.47 31.16 8,800 8,740

Coal

- Gasification Integrated

Comb Cycle (IGCC) 2018 1200 4 3,483 1.07 1.00 3,727 7.22 51.37 8,700 7,450

IGCC with Carbon sequestion 2018 520 4 5,891 1.07 1.03 6,492 8.44 72.80 10,700 8,307

Conv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle 2017 620 3 869 1.05 1.00 912 3.60 13.16 7,050 6,800

Adv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle (CC) 2017 400 3 942 1.08 1.00 1,017 3.27 15.36 6,430 6,333

Adv CC with Carbon

sequestration 2017 340 3 1,845 1.08 1.04 2,072 6.78 31.77 7,525 7,493

Conv Comb Turbine 8 2016 85 2 922 1.05 1.00 968 15.44 7.34 10,783 10,450

Adv Comb Turbine 2016 210 2 639 1.05 1.00 671 10.37 7.04 9,750 8,550

Fuel Cells 2017 10 3 6,042 1.05 1.10 6,978 42.97 0.00 9,500 6,960

Adv Nuclear 2022 2234 6 4,646 1.10 1.05 5,366 2.14 93.23 10,479 10,479

Distributed Genera tion

- Base 2017 2 3 1,407 1.05 1.00 1,477 7.75 17.44 9,015 8,900

Distributed Genera tion

- Peak 2016 1 2 1,689 1.05 1.00 1,774 7.75 17.44 10,015 9,880

Biomass 2018 50 4 3,399 1.07 1.01 3,659 5.26 105.58 13,500 13,500

Geothermal 7,9 2018 50 4 2,331 1.05 1.00 2,448 0.00 112.85 9,516 9,516

Municipal Solid Waste

Conventional 2017 50 3 7,730 1.07 1.00 8,271 8.74 392.60 14,878 18,000

Hydropower 9 2018 500 4 2,410 1.10 1.00 2,651 5.76 15.15 9,516 9,516

Wind 2017 100 3 1,850 1.07 1.00 1,980 0.00 39.53 9,516 9,516

Wind Offshore 2018 400 4 4,476 1.10 1.25 6,154 0.00 73.96 9,516 9,516

Solar Thermal 7 2017 100 3 3,787 1.07 1.00 4,052 0.00 67.23 9,516 9,516

Photovoltaic 7,10 2016 150 2 3,123 1.05 1.00 3,279 0.00 24.68 9,516 9,516

1 Online year represents the first year that a new unit could be completed, given an order date of 2014.

2 A contingency allowance is defined by the American Association of Cost Engineers as the “specific provision for unforeseeable elements of costs within a defined project

scope; particularly important where previous experience has shown that unforeseeable events which will increase costs are lik ely to occur.”

3 The technological optimism factor is applied to the first four units of a new, unproven design; i t reflects the demonstrated tendency to underestimate actual costs for a

first

- of

- a

- kind unit.

4 Overnight capital cost including contingency factors, excluding regional multipliers and learning effects. Interest charges a re also excluded. These represent c osts of new

projects initiated in 2014.

5 O&M = Operations and maintenance.

6 For hydro, wind, solar and geothermal technologies, the heat rate shown represents the average heat rate for conventional the rmal generation as of 2013. This is used for

purposes o f calculating primary energy consumption displaced for these resources, and does not imply an estimate of their actual energy conversion efficiency.

7 Capital costs are shown before investment tax credits are applied.

8 Combustion turbine units can be built by the model prior to 2016 if necessary to meet a given region’s reserve margin.

9 Because geothermal and hydro cost and performance characteristics are specific for each site, the table entries represent the cost of the least expensive plant that could

be built in the Northwest Power Pool region, where most of the proposed sites are located.

10 Costs and capacities are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity.

Sources: For the AEO2015 cycle, EIA continues to use th e previously developed cost estimates for utility

- scale electric generating plants, updated by external consultants

for AEO2013. This report can be found at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/ . The costs were assumed to be consistent with plants that would be ordered in 2012,

and learning from capacity built in 2012 and 2013 has been applied in the initial costs above. Wind capital costs were update d for AEO2015 using recent reports from trade

press and reports from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Site

- specific costs for geothermal were provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, "Updated

U.S. Geothermal Supply Curve,” February 2010.