Technical

Support Document

(TSD)

For Emissions Inventories

for

the Washington DC-MD-VA 8 Hour Ozone

State Implementation

Plan

(SIP)

Base

Year Inventory. Submitted

June

2007

by

the District

of Columbia Department

of Health Maryland Department

of the Environment, and Virginia Department

of Environmental

Quality TSD Prepared December,

2008 Janet

C. Kremer Air Quality Analysis

Branch,

3AP22 U.S. Environmental

Protection

Agency,

Region

3 1650

Arch

Street Philadelphia,

Pennsylvania

19103 Reviewed

by Walter

Wilkie,

Chief Air Quality Analysis

Branch (3AP22) a 7y/ao Date SignedI.IntroductionThepurposeofthisdocumentistoprovideatechnicalsummaryoftheAirQualityAnalysisBranch’s(AQAB)reviewoftheemissionsinventoriessubmittedwiththeWashingtonDC-Ml)-VANonattainmentArea8HourOzoneStateImplementationPlan(SIP)bytheDistrictofColumbiaDepartmentofHealth,theMarylandDepartmentoftheEnvironment(MDE),andtheVirginiaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQuality.ThisreviewdeterminestheapprovabilityoftheSIPBaseYearInventoryandanevaluationofthemethodsusedforprojectionyearinventories.ASIPBaseYearInventoryisthestartingpointfromwhichotherSIPinventoriesarederivedaswellasservingasthebenchmarkforotherSIPplanningactivities,suchastheestablishmentofanemissionsreductioncreditprogram.Projectionyearinventoriesareessentiallyusedtotrackprogress;thepurposeofwhichistodemonstrateareductioninemissionsofregulatedsourcesfromtheBaseYeartoaprojectedyear.TheWashingtonDC-MD-VANonattainmentAreawasdesignatedasan8hourozonenonattainmentareawithaSubpart2classification.Subpart2area(s)arerequiredtosubmitinitialSIPbaseyearinventoriestoEPAbyJune15,2006;withthefinalBaseYearinventoryduewiththeSIPtoEPAbyJune15,2007.TheDistrictofColumbiaDepartmentofHealth,theMarylandDepartmentoftheEnvironment,andtheVirginiaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityhereinreferredtoas“StateAirAgencies,”havesubmittedWashingtonDC-MD-VANonattainmentArea8HourOzoneSIPsandhaverequestedEPA’sapprovaloftheirrespectivebaseyearemissioninventories.AnyquestionspertainingtothistechnicalsummaryshouldbedirectedtoWalterK.Wilkie,Chief,AirQualityAnalysisBranch,at215-814-2150orviaemailatwi1kie.walter(epa.ov.II2002SIPBaseYearInventoryTheSIPbaseyearinventoryistheprimaryinventoryfromwhichotherinventories(3-yearcycleinventories,reasonablefurtherprogressinventories,modelinginventories)arederived.TheCleanAirActcallsforState,local,andTribalagenciestoensurethatthebaseyearinventoryiscomprehensive,accurate,andcurrentforallactualemissions.1Thebaseyearinventoryincludesemissionsestimatesfromstationarypointandnonpointsources,onroadmobilesources,andnonroadmobilesources.Forthe8-hourozoneNAAQS,thepollutantstobeinventoriedareVOC,NOxandCO(carbonmonoxide).Forthe8-hourozoneNAAQS,VOC,NOxandCOemissionsshouldbereportedasactualannualandactualsummerweekdayemissions(definedasanaverageday’semissionsforatypicalsummerdayduringtheozoneseason).TheStateAirAgenciesbaseyearinventoryfortheWashingtonDC-MD-VA(theWashingtonArea)isfor2002.FortheWashingtonarea,thegeographiccoverageincludessourcesintheDistrictofColumbia(VA);Calvert,Charles,Frederick,Montgomery,andPrinceGeorgel“EmissionsInventoryGuidanceforImplementationofOzoneandParticulateMatterNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)andRegionalHazeRegulations”EPA-4541R-05-001,August2005CountiesinMaryland(MD);andArlington,Alexandria,Fairfax,Loudoun,andPrinceWilliamCountiesinVirginia(VA).AsignificantamountofdocumentationisrequiredfortheseSIPbaseyearestimateswhichhasprovidedbytheStateAirAgencies.TheStateAirAgencies,alongwiththeMetropolitanWashingtonCouncilofGovernments(MWCOG),workedtogethertodevelopa2002baseyearinventoryfortheWashingtonArea.TheStateAirAgencies,incollaborationwithMWCOG,developedthepointsourcedatafor2002baseyearinventory.TheStateAirAgenciesprovidedits2002actualtypicalozoneseasondayemissionsandannualemissionsforNOx,COandVOCatthefacilitylevelandattheprocess-level.Forthe2002NonpointSourceemissions,alsoknownas“areasources,”theStateAirAgenciesprovidedaninventorythatcontainedestimationsofemissionsbymultiplyinganemissionfactorbysomeknownindicatorofcollectiveactivityforeachsourcecategoryatthecounty(orcounty-equivalent).Theseemissionsaretypicallycalculatedonanannualbasisbecausetheactivitydataaregenerallyonlyavailableonanannualbasis.TheStateAirAgenciesconvertedtheseannualemissionstoseasonalemissions,forozone,thesummerseasonisdefinedaspeakozoneseasonmonthsofJune,July,andAugust.Varioussourcesofemissionfactorsormethodologieswereused,includingEPA’sAP-42,EPA’sEmissionsInventoryImprovementProgram,andEPAmobilesourcemodel.NonpointsourceestimateswereprovidedbySCC.TheNonroadMobileSource2002inventorywaspreparedbyMCOGwithEPA’sNONROAD2005amodel,versionasof02/08/2006,andEPAemissionfactors.NONROADestimatesfuelconsumptionandemissionsoftotalhydrocarbons,carbonmonoxide,nitrogenoxides,sulfurdioxide,andparticulatematterforallnonroadmobilesourcecategoriesexceptforaircraft,locomotives,andcommercialmarinevessels.TheNONROAD2005modelwasruntheWashingtonAreaforbothanaverageozoneseasondayandannualemissions.TheperiodMaythroughSeptemberwasconsideredforozoneseasonanalysis,whilefourseasonapproachwasadaptedfordevelopingannualemissions.Modelinputswerepreparedforbothozoneseasondayandthefourseasonsforeachjurisdiction.Togetaverageozoneseasondayemissions,themodelwasruntogettheperiodtotal(June-August2002)emissionsandthentheseemissionsweredividedby92(totalnumberofdaysduringtheperiod)togetaverageozoneseasondayemissions.Emissionestimatesforlocomotiveengines,aircraftemissionsandcommercialmarinevesselswereprovidedseparately.Forlocomotiveengineandlinehaulemissions,DCandMDrequestedandreceivedfuelusageandactivitydata,fromtheoperationswithintheirrespectivecounties,todetermineemissions.VAusedemissionfactorsfroma1997EPATechnicalMemorandum.TheWashingtonAreacontainsseveralairportsthathaveseveraldifferenttypesofaircraftwithdifferentactivityassociatedwiththem.Therearetwocommercialairports(bothlocatedinVA),12public-usegeneralaviationairports(locatedinMDandVA),andthreeairportsthatservemilitaryairporttraffic(locatedinMDandVA).TheStateAirAgenciesusedseveralsourcesofinformationtoobtainemissionratesandactivitydata:FederalAviationAdministration’s(FAA)AirTraffic1990,andtheAirportActivityStatisticsofCertifiedRouteAirCarriers;landingandtakeoffcycleinformationfromtheAviationAdministrationandtheFederalAviationAdministrationAirportLicenseRenewalApplications;andFAA’sEmissions&DispersionModelingSystem(EDMS).CalvertCounty,MDistheonlycountyintheWashingtonAreathathasemissionsforcommercialmarinevessels.MDEusedtheemission inventory

prepared

for

the Maryland

Port Administration

by Edwards

and Kelcey

(E&K).

E&K analyzed

the major categories

of

air emissions

associated

with

ship and

port operations.

E&K

also

used EPA’s guidance,

Analysis

of Commercial

Marine Vessels Emissions

and Fuel Consumption

Data, (EPA-450-R-00-002).

February

2000,

to calculate emissions.

All non-road

mobile

source emissions

were provided

by SCC. The Onroad

Mobile

Source

2002 emissions

inventory

was developed

using

the most current

version

of EPA’s highway

mobile

source emissions

model MOBILE

6.2

and traffic activity

data

from

the National

Capitol

Region Transportation

Planning

Board. MCOG provided Mobile6.2

input

and output

files

for review.

Mobile emissions

values were

given

in units

of tons

per summer

day

and were provided

by SCC. The State Agencies

also applied

rule effectiveness

and

rule penetration

for

its 2002 8-hour

ozone

SIP base

year inventories.

Rule effectiveness

reflects

the actual ability

of

a regulatory

program

to achieve

the emission reductions

required

by regulation (or perhaps voluntarily

adopted).

The

State Agencies

applied

rule effectiveness

and where applicable,

provided

a justification

of

a higher percentage

than EPA’s previous policy

(which assumed

80%

rule effectiveness

for applicable

sources

unless otherwise specified).

Rule penetration

is

an estimate

of percentage

of emissions

in

a source category

that

are emitted

at facilities

subject

to the requirements

of

a rule.

The State Agencies

applied

rule penetration

for

its nonpoint

sources

where applicable. AQAB

staff reviewed

the results, procedures,

and methodologies

for

the

SIP base year,

and found

them

to

be approvable. IlL

2008

and 2009 Projection

Emission Inventories Projection inventories

are used

to show

that

the area

will remain

in attainment. Projection

inventories

for

the years

2008

and 2009

were

used

for

the Washington

DCMD-VA

Area

SIP.

The 2008 projected

inventory

is required

for reasonable

further progress

(RFP)

and

the 2009 projected

inventory

is required

for

the attainment

year. Inventories

were developed

for

all emission

sources

for both years. The Point Source emissions

for 2008

and 2009

were projected,

using growth surrogates

from EPA’s Economic

Growth

and Analysis

System,

Version

5.0 (EGAS

5.0). The Nonpoint

Source emissions

for 2008

and 2009

were projected

using growth factors

to account

for population,

household

and employment

data

the Round

7.0 Cooperative

Forecasts

prepared

by MWCOG

staff

and

the VMT projections

were developed

by COG Department

of Transportation

Planning

staff. For

the 2008

and 2009 Nonroad

Mobile

Source inventories,

the State Agencies used EPA’s NONROAD2005

model

to generate

these

future inventories.

The NONROAD

model

allows

for

the calculation

of past

year, present

year,

and future

year inventories

(up

to the year 2050)

to

be generated.

Growth

for locomotives

and commercial

marine

vessels

came

from employment

data

as surrogates. Commercial aircraft

growth

was provided

by Metropolitan

Washington

Airports Authority,

MDE provided

future

year emission

for military

aircraft

in their counties,

while

no growth

was assumed

for Virginia

military

aircraft emissions.

MDE

also provided

emissions

forgeneralaviationandairtaxiemissionsfortheircounties,whileVirginiagrewthebaseyearemissionsforthesesourcesusingpopulationasthesurrogate.The2008and2009OriroadMobileSourceinventoriesweregeneratedusingEPA’sMOBILE6.2andtheVersion2.ld#50TravelDemandModelwith2008and2009plannedhighwaynetwork.MWCOGprovidesampleMOBILE6.2inputandoutputfilesforreview.AQABstaffreviewedtheprocedures,andfoundthemtobereasonablefordevelopmentoftheseinventories.