San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan i 

## Table of Contents

Executive Summary Progress from ozone and PM10 Attain ment Plans.................................... ES-1 Expeditious Attainment ..............................................................................ES-2 What will this plan do? ...............................................................................ES-2

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Acronyms and Glossary

Chapter 1: Progress and Current Air Quality 1.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 What is PM2.5? ............................................................................... 1-1 1.3 Adopted Rules ................................................................................. 1-2 1.4 Emissions and Curr ent Air Qua lity................................................... 1-4 1.4.1 Emis sions .......................................................................... 1-4 1.4.2 Air Monitoring Data and Anal ysis....................................... 1-5

Chapter 2: Meeting Federal Requirements 2.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Health Effects .................................................................................. 2-1 2.2.1 Other Effect s of PM2. 5....................................................... 2-3 2.3 Health-Bas ed Standards .................................................................. 2-3 2.3.1 State Standards ................................................................. 2-4 2.3.2 Federal Standards ............................................................. 2-4 2.4 Designations and Requirem ents...................................................... 2-6

Chapter 3: What is Needed to Demonstrate Attainment? 3.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Cha llenges....................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Natural Condition s ............................................................. 3-2 3.2.2 Met eorology ....................................................................... 3-3 3.2.3 Horizontal Mi xing (Trans port)............................................. 3-4 3.2.4 Vertical Mixing and Inversion Layers ................................. 3-5 3.2.5 Fog Effect s on PM2. 5 ........................................................ 3-6 3.2.6 Urban and Rural Co mparison and Atmospheric Chemistry for PM2.5............................................................... 3-7 3.2.7 Other Key Findings from Scientific Studies and SJV Evaluati ons .................................................................... 3-9 3.2.7.1 Ammonium Nitrate Sens itivity to Sulfate Levels ........ 3-9 3.2.7.2 Precursor Relationships and Control Sensitivity...... 3-10 3.2.8 Populati on Growth ........................................................... 3-11 3.2.9 Jurisdictional Limits and Regulatory Au thority ................. 3-12 3.3 Modelin g......................................................................................... 3-14San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan ii 3.3.1 Model Choice ................................................................... 3-14 3.3.2 Model A pplicatio n............................................................. 3-16 3.3.2.1 PM2.5 Speciation for Annual Rollback Modeling..... 3-16 3.3.2.2 PM2.5 Methodology Revisions for Annual Receptor M odeling ............................................................ 3-18 3.3.3 Weight of Evidenc e.......................................................... 3-19 3.3.4 Speciated Model ed Attainment Test ................................ 3-20 3.4 Modeling Results ........................................................................... 3-22 3.4.1 Discussion of Result s....................................................... 3-23 3.4.2 Weight of Evidenc e.......................................................... 3-27 3.4.3 Demonstration of Attain ment ........................................... 3-32 3.5 PM2.5 Consi derations in t he Ozone Pl an...................................... 3-33 3.6 PM2.5 Effect on the Ozone Plan ................................................... 3-33

Chapter 4: Strategic Concepts 4.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Overall Approach ............................................................................. 4-1 4.2.1 Integration of Oz one and PM2.5 Stra tegies ....................... 4-1 4.3 Four-Faceted Co ntrol Stra tegy ........................................................ 4-2 4.4 Local, State, and Federal Com ponents ........................................... 4-3 4.5 Support from Other District Progr ams ............................................. 4-3 4.5.1 Complianc e/Enforcem ent................................................... 4-3 4.5.2 Public Education, Awareness, and In formation.................. 4-5 4.5.2.1 Pr ograms ................................................................... 4-5 4.5.2.2 Events ....................................................................... 4-9 4.5.2.3 Ma terials .................................................................. 4-10 4.5.3 Environment al Revi ew ...................................................... 4-11 4.5.4 Sustainable Incentiv es...................................................... 4-12

Chapter 5: Public Accountability

Chapter 6: District Strategy 6.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Regulatory compo nent: RACT/R ACM ............................................ 6-1 6.3 Stationary Source Control Meas ures .............................................. 6-6 6.3.1 Process for Identifyi ng and Evaluating Potential Control Meas ures ........................................................................ 6-6 6.4 Implementation schedule for Stationary Source Control Meas ures ........................................................................ 6-8 6.5 District Incent ive Program s............................................................. 6-13 6.5.1 Types of Inc entive Progr ams ............................................ 6-14 6.5.2 Existing Incentive Funding Sources in the San Joaquin Valle y ........................................................................... 6-16 6.6 District Innovative St rategies and Pr ograms.................................. 6-20 6.6.1 Fast Track ........................................................................ 6-20 6.6.2 Healthy Air Livi ng............................................................. 6-23San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan iii Chapter 7: Local, State, and Federal Controls 7.1 Introduc tion ..................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Local Component: Measures to Reduce Emissions by Improving Vehi cle Use................................................................. 7-1 7.2.1 Legislative Requirement s................................................... 7-1 7.2.2 Conformi ty Budget s ............................................................ 7-3 7.3 Summary of the State St rategy Adopted by the Air Resources B oard ....................................................................... 7-11

Chapter 8: Reasonable Further Progress 8.1 Introduc tion...................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Reasonable further Pr ogress Require ments.................................... 8-1 8.3 Reasonable further Pr ogress Calcul ations ...................................... 8-2

Chapter 9: Conclusion 9.1 Attainment Outlook .......................................................................... 9-1 9.1.1 Attainm ent before 2014...................................................... 9-3 9.2 Contingency Measures .................................................................... 9-5 9.2.1 Intr oduction ......................................................................... 9-5 9.2.2 Contingen cy Measur es ....................................................... 9-7

Acknowledgements



## Appendices

Appendix A: Ambient Air Quality Data and Analysis A.1 Introduc tion .....................................................................................A-1 A.2 Overview of Result s: 2004-2006 Annual and 24-hour PM2.5 Aver ages .......................................................................... A-1 A.3 PM2.5 Annual and 24-hour Attain ment Status Ca lculations............A-2 A.3.1 Rounding Conventi ons ...................................................... A-3 A.3.2 Data Co mpletene ss...........................................................A-3 A.3.3 Varying Sa mpling Schedu les.............................................A-5 A.3.4 Data Va lidity Fl ags.............................................................A-9 A.4 Data Analysi s, 1999- 2006 ...............................................................A-9 A.5 Trend and Spatia l Variati ons......................................................... A-10 A.5.1 Local Trends ....................................................................A-10 A.6 Results using Preliminary 2007 Real-time 24-Hour PM2.5 Data...A-27

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory B.1 Introduc tion .....................................................................................B-1 B.2 Emissions Inv entory Tabl es ............................................................B-3 B.3 Emissions Inventory Calc ulations and Re visions ..........................B-27San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan iv B.3.1 Emission Factors and Emission Eq uations......................B-27 B.3.2 Emissions In ventory U pdates .......................................... B-28

Appendix C: Conformity Budgets Documentation

Appendix D: Emission Reduction Credits D.1 Introduc tion .....................................................................................D-1 D.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Cr edits.......................................D-1

Appendix E: District Additi ons to the Conceptual Model

Appendix F: SJV PM2.5 SIP Modeling Protocol

Appendix G: Regional Air Quality Modeling

Appendix H: Weight of Evidence

Appendix I: Candidate Control Measures

Appendix J: Comments and Responses J.1 Written Comments on the Proposed 2008 PM2.5 Plan ....................J-1 J.2 Re-evaluation of Comments and Research Submitted by the California Cotton Ginners and Growers Associations, January 7, 2008 .......................................................................... J-20 J.3 Verbal Comments, Februar y 25-26, 2008 Public Workshops on the 2 nd Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan ...............................................J-21 J.3.1 February 25, 2:00pm Work shop........................................J-21 J.3.2 February 26, 6:30pm Work shop........................................J-26 J.4 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan .....................................................J-28 J.5 Verbal Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshops on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan .....................................................J-42 J.5.1 December 18, 2 007, 6:30 pm Wo rkshop...........................J-42 J.5.2 December 19, 2 007, 2:00 pm wo rkshop ...........................J-45 J.6 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop on the Draft 2008 PM2.5 Plan .....................................................J-48San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan v 

## List of Figures

Figure ES-1 Percent of Valley’s Population Living in Areas that Attain the 1997 PM2.5 Standar d....................................................................................ES-2 Figure ES-2 Annual Average NOx Emissi ons and NOx Attainment Target....ES-3 Figure ES-3 Mobile Source Cont ribution to NOx Emission s...........................ES-4

Figure 1-1 PM2. 5 Formati on ............................................................................ 1-1 Figure 1-2 Diameter Comparison: Hum an Hair, Sand, PM10, and PM2.5 ....... 1-3 Figure 1-3 PM2.5 and Precursor Em issions Reduction s, 1990-2005............... 1-5 Figure 1-4 Atmospheric Monitoring Si tes within the San Joaquin Valley.......... 1-6 Figure 1-5 PM2.5 Design Val ues and Attainm ent Test ..................................... 1-7 Figure 1-6 24-hour Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and 2006 ....... 1-9 Figure 1-7 Annual Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and 2006 ...... 1-10

Figure 2-1 AQI Values and Corresponding Air Quality, Colors, and Health Advisori es............................................................................................... 2-3

Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley To pography ..................................................... 3-1 Figure 3-2 Vertical Dispersion, With and Without Temperature Inversion........ 3-6 Figure 3-3 NOx Precurso r by Source Type .................................................... 3-13 Figure 3-4 Example annual PM2.5 s ource contributions, Kern 2014, including re ductions .............................................................................. 3-26

Figure 9-1 Percent Contribution to Annual PM2.5 C oncentrati ons................... 9-2 Figure 9-2 Annual PM2.5 Princi pal Components and Reductions .................... 9-4

Figure A-1 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004- 2006 avera ge) ...................................................................................... A-14 Figure A-2 Bakersfield - California 3- year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations fr om 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 av erage) ............................................................................ A-14 Figure A-3 Bakersfield - Golden 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004- 2006 avera ge) ...................................................................................... A-15 Figure A-4 Visalia 3-year average 98t h percentile 24-h our average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( 1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 average) ...............................................................................................A-15 Figure A-5 Corcoran 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( 1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 average) ...............................................................................................A-16 Figure A-6 Fresno-Winery 3-year av erage 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 (1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004- 2006 avera ge) ...................................................................................... A-16San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan vi Figure A-7 Fresno-1st 3- year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( 1999-2001 average) to 2006 (2004-2006 average) ...............................................................................................A-17 Figure A-8 Clovis 3-year average 98t h Percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrati ons ...................................................................................... A-17 Figure A-9 Merced - M Str eet 3-year average 98th per centile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2006............................................. A-18 Figure A-10 Modesto 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2006 ........................................................ A-18 Figure A-11 Stockton 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2006 ........................................................ A-19 Figure A-12 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-19 Figure A-13 Bakersfield - California 3-year average PM2. 5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................ A-20 Figure A-14 Bakersfield - Golden 3-y ear average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-20 Figure A-15 Visalia 3-year aver age PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-21 Figure A-16 Corcoran 3-year aver age PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-21 Figure A-17 Fresno-Winery 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................ A-22 Figure A-18 Fresno-1st 3-year av erage PM2.5 annual m ean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-22 Figure A-19 Clovis 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 .........................................................................................A-23 Figure A-20 Merced M Street 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................ A-23 Figure A-21 Modesto - 14th 3-ye ar average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 ............................................................................... A-24 Figure A-22 Stockton - Hazelton 3-y ear average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to 2006 ................................................................................ A-24 Figure A-23 PM2.5 24-hour Design Va lue Comparison, 2002 and 2006 ........A-25 Figure A-24 PM2.5 Annual Mean Design Value Comparison, 2002 and 2006 ..............................................................................................A-26San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan vii 

## List of Tables

Table 2-1 Federal and State Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 ........... 2-5 Table 2-2 Federal Requirements fo r PM2.5 Nonattain ment Areas................... 2-8

Table 3-1 SJVAB Popul ation by C ounty......................................................... 3-12 Table 3-2 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Receptor Speciated Modeled Attainment Test .................................................................................... 3-22 Table 3-3 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Regional Speciated Modeled Attainment Test .................................................................................... 3-23 Table 3-4 Regional M odel Evalua tion............................................................. 3-25 Table 3-5 Regional and Rec eptor Model Co mparison .................................... 3-30

Table 6-1 EPA’s List of Sugges ted PM2.5 Contro l Measur es .......................... 6-4 Table 6-2 Stationary Source Regul atory Implementati on Schedule ................ 6-9 Table 6-3a NOx Emissi ons Reduct ions........................................................... 6-11 Table 6-3b PM2.5 Emi ssions Reduc tions....................................................... 6-12 Table 6-3c SO 2 Emissions Re ductions ........................................................... 6-12 Table 6-4 Feasibility Study Implementatio n Schedule ................................... 6-13 Table 6-5 Existing Funding Sour ces............................................................... 6-17 Table 6-6 NOx Reductions Achieved by District Incent ive Measures with Assured Fu nding ........................................................................... 6-17 Table 6-7 Estimated Ne w Funding S ources ................................................... 6-19

Table 7-1 Example County Emi ssion Budget Calc ulation ................................ 7-7 Table 7-2 Transportation Conformity Budgets .................................................. 7-8 Table 7-3 Expected Emission Reductions from 2007 SIP State Strategy ...... 7-12

Table 8-1 Emissions Inventory Adju sted for Plan Contro l Strat egy .................. 8-2 Table 8-2 Determining Benchmark M ilestones as tpd of Reductions ............... 8-2 Table 8-3 Comparison of 2009 and 2012 RFP Benchmarks and Projected Levels ....................................................................... 8-3 Table 8-4 Fraction of Reductions Ac hieved in Each Mi lestone Year................ 8-3

Table 9-1 San Joaquin Valley PM 2.5 Attainment Outlook................................ 9-3

Table A-1 SJV PM2.5 98t h Percentile Value, 2004-2006, (μg/ m3) ...................A-1 Table A-2 SJV PM2.5 Annual Mean Values , 2004-2006 ..................................A-2 Table A-3 Data Completeness by Q uarter, 2004 – 2006, as Percentages.......A-4 Table A-4 Data Substitution for 98th Percentile Calculations, 2004-2006........A-4 Table A-5 Sampling schedules for SJ V air monitoring si tes, 2004-2006..........A-5 Table A-6 Calculating Weighted Percentiles for Tw o Seasons , .......................A-7 Table A-7 Quarterly Averages, 2006 Bake rsfield - Planz PM2.5 Values..........A-8San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Polluti on Control District April 30, 2008

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2008 PM2.5 Plan viii Table A-8 24-hour PM2.5 98th percentile values ( μ g/m3), 1999-2006...........A-11 Table A-9 3-year average of the 24- hour PM2.5 98th percentile values ........A-11 Table A-10 Annual mean PM2.5 value concentrations ( μ g/m3) .....................A-12 Table A-11 3-year average of the annual mean PM2.5 values ( μ g/m3) .........A-12 Table A-12 Current (2004 – 2006) PM 2.5 air quality design values and attainment status for the San Joaquin Valley Ai r Basin ........................A-13 Table A-13 24 - hour PM2. 5 98th percentile values ( μ g / m3)........................A-27 Table A-14 Complete Ai r Quality Data , 2004-2006 ........................................A-28

Table B-1 Directly Emitted PM2.5, A nnual and Winter Da ily Averages............B-3 Table B-2 NOx, Annual and Winter Daily Averages .........................................B-7 Table B-3 SO 2 , Annual and Winter Daily Aver ages......................................... B-12 Table B-4 VOC, Annual and Winter Daily Averages .......................................B-17 Table B-5 Ammonia, Annual and Winter Daily Averages ...............................B-21

Table D-1 Estimated NOx Growth, Cont rol, and Estimated Offset Use............D-5 Table D-2 Estimated VOC Growth, Cont rol, and Estimated Offset Use ...........D-8 Table D-3 Estimated PM2.5 Growth, C ontrol, and Estimated Offset Use.......D-11 Table D-4 Estimated SO 2 Growth, Control, and Esti mated Offset Use ..........D-14 Table D-5 List of Emission Reduction Credits PM10 and PM2.5 Prec ursors ...................................................................D-18