http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/

To rate this publication click here.
STRATEGIC

STUDIES

INSTITUTE

The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War

College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to

national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis.

The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic

studies that develop policy recommendations on:

employment of military forces;

-

special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of

-

Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army participation in national security policy formulation.
Strategic Studies Institute Monograph

MEXICO’S “NARCO-REFUGEES”:

THE LOOMING CHALLENGE FOR U.S.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Paul Rexton Kan

October 2011

The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do

-

-

enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas-

-

to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in-

*****

-

-
ii

*****

*****

www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil

*****

newsletter to update the national security community on the re-

-

www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.

army.mil/newsletter/.
iii

FOREWORD

-

-

stan, the potential for spillover violence from Mexico can-

-

-

-

nesses have reconsidered their investments and their op-

-

-

such a movement, if it increases steadily or suddenly, will

-

vironment in the hemisphere and place pressure on them

-

v

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

-

Cartels at War: Understanding Mexico’s

Drug-Fueled Violence and the Challenge to U.S. National

Security Drugs and Contemporary Warfare and numerous articles on the intersection

-

-
SUMMARY

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

heart of American values of justice and humanitarianMexicans who unwillingly leave Mexico, rather than

vi
MEXICO’S “NARCO-REFUGEES”:

THE LOOMING CHALLENGE FOR U.S.

NATIONAL SECURITY

-

-

-

-

-

-

money for weapons from those who could afford to
-

-

-

-

-

inversionistas

Yet, the rise in

declining, accord-
-

leave their home country en masse for another, it is

criminal violence continues, increases, or spreads,

-

received widespread support from American policy-
Mexicans who unwillingly leave Mexico, rather than

-

-

-

-
“WE ARE NOT USED TO THIS TYPE OF

VIOLENCE. THE HEADS”9

The Three US-Mexico Border Wars, Tony

put, they are not the same issue, and they should not

inside

-

-

-

criminal activities, impoverished communities eas-

-
-

-

tequileros

maras

-

-

plazas, which provide easy access

The location curse supports a

-
-

up

shut

-

-

-

sons or property ordinarily left in peace, or to avoid

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

-

REFUGEES AND POLITICAL ASYLUM—

CAUGHT IN THE PROBLEM, CAUGHT

IN THE SOLUTION

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

Any person who is outside any country of such perno nationality, is outside any country in which such

avail himself or herself of the protection of, that counAn applicant must demonstrate that past persecu-

-

triated, and that such persecution is due to at least one

-
-

-

-

-

-
-

-

-

-

-

The

-

-
-

-

-

plicant is then transferred to a detention facility manThe applicant remains in the detention facility until

-

-

-

applications were processed, therefore many evaded

claims are processed.

-
-

the person is issued a voluntary departure letter with

-
-

-

invented as another way for Mexicans to enter the

-

and editors, out of fear or caution, are forced to write

As previously mentioned, a

-
society less aware of the activities of the cartels and

-

-

that in mind, as information correspondents, we want

-

lives of those of us who dedicate ourselves to inform-

-

-
-

-

The

-

-

“MEXI-STAN”: WHAT COULD BE

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

-

effect of counternarcotics operations, which causes the

-
-

-

-

-

-
These three potential scenarios lead to an imporeach scenario need to apply to the entire country of

-

-

-

-
prosperous Mexicans would also indicate that the se-

-

-

The

-

Tourism in the
-

a quarter of them

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

A steep economic decline may

-

-

-

The

-

-
-

-

-

-

and capacity of the state to meet their most fundamen-

-

action has meant additional violence, which led to an

-

-
-

El Real newspaper was shot to death as he drove in a

-

navaca is a favorite destination for residents of Mexico

“Waziristan, USA”: Effects in the United States.

-

creases dramatically, no matter under what scenario

The unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, em-

-

-

-

-
-

-

-

plazas

-

they remain outside of their home country and with-
to Mexico in an attempt to clear towns of cartels and

in Mexico may seem far-fetched at the moment, there

-
As

-

-

-

-

inversionistas

-

-
Paths to be Considered.

This is Your Country on Drugs

-

-

-

As former Mexican At-

-

while the
-

-

-

-

-

-

-
-

-

individuals from other countries to claim this status,

-

-

-

-
-

-

-

-

A sudden mass exodus, however, would pose spe-

-
-

-

as they are, before

BORDER, FRONTIER, LINE . . . SANCTUARY

-

-

-

-

ENDNOTES

New York Times

www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/us/18border.html?pagewanted=1&hp

The Daily Telegraph

www.telegraph.co.uk
Ibid

www.azcentral.com

-

msnbc.com msnbc.msn.com/

id/35556681/ns/world_news-washington_post/

Latin America

Herald Tribune www.laht.com/

article.asp?ArticleId=367604&CategoryId=14091

NPR.org www.npr.org/

templates/story/story.php?storyId=130592600

www.msnbc.com www.

msnbc.msn.com/id/37214634/

-

www.

sandiego6.com

-

www.msnbc.com

www.msnbc.com/id/2804515/print/1/

displaymode/1098

The Three US-Mexico Border Wars, Westport,

Small Wars and Insurgencies

Dreamland: The

Way Out of Juarez

Small Wars and Insurgencies
Ibid

-

www.kpbs.org/news/border-battle/

Theories of Civil Violence

Mexico’s Narco-Insurgency and US Counterdrug

Policy

Wall Street Journal

-

Small Wars and Insurgencies

www.signonsandiego

www.puertasmultilock.com

The Wall Street Journal Online -

online.wsj.com/article/SB123518102536038463.html

Ibid

Reporte Indigo www.reporteindigo.com,

octavioislas.wordpress.com/2008/09/13/1732-mexicoreporte-indigo-12-de-septiembre-de-2008-nuevo-periodismo-digitalen-mexico/
borderlandbeat.com www.border

landbeat.com/2010/09/threats-from-narcos-force-mexican.html

-

The Arizona Republic -

www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/01/24/20100124asyl

um0124.html

Ibid

-

www.ktsm.com www.ktsm.com/

news/cartel-strengthens-hold-on-juarez-valley

-

El Paso Times -

www.elpasotimes.com/news/

ci_16077238?IADID=Search-www.elpasotimes.com-www.elpasotimes.

com

El Universal,

www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/166613.html

www.freemedia.at/publications/world-press-freedom-review/americascarribean/singleview/4729/
www.foxnews.com

www.foxnews.com/us/2010/04/01/mexicans-facingdrug-war-violence-seek-political-asylum/

Ibid

www.

washingtontimes.com www.washing

Security and Human Mobility in an Age of

Risk

Los Angeles Times

from www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-narcocensorship-20100816,0,4152944.story

-

Small Wars & Insurgencies

El Diario de Juarez

www.diario.com.mx/notas.php?f=2010/09/1

9&id=ce557112f34b187454d7b6d117a76cb5

Border Games -

www.borderlandbeat.com

-

Washington Post

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/19/

AR2010071901027.html
www.elagoradechihuahua.com/Amenazan-con-mascoches-bomba,25606.html

The Wall Street Journal Online -

online.wsj.com/article/SB123518102536038463.html

-

Small Wars & Insurgencies,

Wall Street Journal online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487046444045754825734385565

34.html

Wall Street Journal,

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424

052748704557704575437762646209270.html

The Economist

Wall Street Journal

from online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703395204576023811

983098994.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

Ibid

STRATFOR

www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100407_mexico_

struggle_balance

msnbc.com

Wall Street Journal
The Globe and Mail

www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/oil-the-mexicancartels-other-deadly-business/article1845378/

borderlandbeat

www.borderlandbeat.com/2010/11/thousands-of-ranches-abandoned-in.

html

Dallas Morning News

www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/DN-capital_08int.ART.North.Edition1.45119ad.

html

STRATFOR, Mexico in Crisis, STRATFOR,

Known Unknowns: Strategic Shocks in Defense

Strategy Development

Christian Science Monitor -

www.csmonitor.com/World/

Americas/2010/0922/Fed-up-with-plague-of-kidnappings-Mexicansturn-to-mob-justice

El Milenio

narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/kristin-bricker/2009/01/

Ibid

borderlandbeat.com

STRATFOR, Mexico in Crisis

This is Your Country on Drugs
The Washington Post

msnbc.com worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/

archive/2008/06/25/1166487.aspx

Christian Science Monitor -

www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2009/0128/p25s20-

woam.html

www.1888pressrelease.com/mexico-s-international-tourismrevenues-reach-historic-high-pr-8r82w4eo15.html
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE

Major General Gregg F. Martin

Commandant

*****

STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE

Director

Professor Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr.

Director of Research

Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II

Author

Dr. Paul Rexton Kan

Director of Publications

Dr. James G. Pierce

Publications Assistant

Ms. Rita A. Rummel

*****

Composition

Mrs. Jennifer E. Nevil