Commercial Refrigeration NOTE. Savings relative to typical new

Unit Energy Annual Energy Primary Annual Installed Base / Stock Equipment Consumption Consumption Energy Consumption Energy Savings Potential Annual Primary Energy Primary Energy Savings Potential, Equipment Type fthousandsl Lifetime fvearsl k f Wh/v Friu ad a/yrl uatls r Oh) Savings Potential fuuads / vrl 2Q1 Q.2Q35 )auadsl Beverage Vending Machines 9,711 8

. 5 3000 0

. 038 0.122

1 1. <2 years payback ( ECM motors f or evaporator fans and high efficiency compressor ) 32% 0.039 0.85 2 2. <5 years payback ( high efficiency condenser fan motor ) 42% 0.051 1.11 Or 3. Energy Star Standard Tier 1 18 % 0.022 0.48 4 4. Ener g y Star Standard Tier 2 33% 0.040 0.87 5 5. CEC January 1 , 2006 Standard 18% 0.022 0.48 6 6. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard 18% 0.022 0.09 Ice Cream Freezers Solid Door o 5 12446 0.00'. 0.012

1. CEC January t, 2007 Standard for Solid DOprS 2 1 2. Ener g y Star Standard

__. _. _ ... _.. a,- 0.005 10 0.005 0.11 0.11 Ice Cream Freezers Transparent Door 13050 5 0.000 0.013 I F1. CEC January t, 2007 Standard for Transparent Doors c^.^ 7.000 0.00 Self-Contained Refrigerators , Freezers , and Refrigerators/Freezers ( without doors ) - 10 15105 0_.25

l F1. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard for Transparent Doors 0., 1 0.24 Remote C ondensing Commercial Refrigerators , Freezers , and Refrigerator / Freezers 3 ) 10 541555 0.102 0.326

1 1. Brushless DC Evaporator Fan Motors b°a 0.026 0.55

2 2. Combination : Hot Gas Defrost, Antisweat Heater Control, Defrost Control, Liquid

- Suction Heat Exchangers for Low Temperature applications , Evaporative Condensers , Floating Head Pressure , Heat Reclaim , and Mechanical Subcooling 7% 0.023 0.48 Commercial RefrIgeratIon

Control, Liquid·Suction Condensers, Floating Head

### Assumptions and References

Beverage Vending Machines Baseline ADL 1996 Report for canned, bottled, milk, and juice beverage vending machines. The energy consumption data from page 5-51, Table 4-34. [Reference t] 1. <2 years payback (ECM motors for evaporator fans and high efficiency compressor) 1. ADL ( 1996 ) 2. <5 years payback (high efficient condenser tan motor) 2. ADL (1996) 3. Energy Star Standard Tier 1 3. Energy Star Standard for Qualified Beverage Vending Machines Y=0.55 8.66+0.009'C where C is vendible capacity assumed to be 400 cans comparing to UEC from EPAct 2005 4. Energy Star Standard Tier 2 4. Energy Star Standard for Qualified Beverage Vending Machines Y=0.45 8.66+0.009'C where C is vendible capacity assumed to be 400 cans comparing to UEC baseline 5. CEC January 1, 2006 Standard S. CEO Standard for Refrigerated canned and bottled beverage vending machines when tested at 90F or 75F 0.55 8.66 +0.009'C) where C = 400 can capacity comparing to UEC baseline 6. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard 6. CEC Standard for Refrigerated canned and bottled beverage vending machines when tested at 90F or 75F (0.55(8.66+0.009"C() where C = 400 can capacity comparing to UEC baseline

Ice Cream Freezers Solid or Baseline Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2005. Article stating "Unilever owns 1.2 million retail ice-cream freezers. In the U, S., where most Ice cream is sold by big chains such as Wal-Mart Cores Inc., Unilever owns only about 60,000 retail freezers.' (Reference 2J he Department used the information from the article to further validate its assumption that 10% of total reach-in freezers with solid and transparent doors are ice cream freezers from the CEC 2004 Article. (Reference 4] The Department found a 27% greater energy consumption for ice cream freezers with solid doors when compared to solid door freezers using the CEC database. 1. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard for Solid Doors 1. CEC Standard for Roll-in or Roll-throw h cambinets that are freezers that are ice cream freezers, Table A-6 (1605.3). 48 fN3 0.39V +0.82 2. Energy Star Standard 3. Energy Star Standard for Qualified Commercial Solid Door Refrigerators and Freezers (0.39V +0.82), using 48 ft^3

Ice Cream Freezers Transparent Door Baseline The Department used the CEC 2004 Report Page 1 [Reference 4]. The Department found 16% greater energy consumption for ice cream freezers with transparent doors when compared to transparent door freezers using the CEC database. 1, CEC January 1, 2007 Standard for Transparent Doors 2. CEC Standard for Energy Star Qualified Commercial Solid Door Ice Cream Freezers, 48 iM3 (0.88V +0.33)

Self-Contained Refrigerators , Freezers , and Refrigerators / Freezers ( without doors) Baseline CEC Report 2004 [Reference 3] Open case refrigeration systems come in 3 configurations - compressor and condenser integrated into the case, compressor is in the case and condenser is remotely located, compressor and condenser are remotely located. FMI in 2002 estimated 32,265 supermarkets and the average supermarket has 60 to 80 display cases. The Department used energy consumption data from the CEC 2004 Report, Page 4, which stated 178,000 open supermakert cases in CA used 2700 GWh/yr. (Reference 3] 1. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard far Trans arent Doors k Codes and Standards Enhancement Iniative for P02004: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Options for Open Case Refrigerators and Freezers (May 11, 2004) Davis Energy Group for CEC Table 1, Page 6 emo is C on d ens i ng ommerc a r r gera ors, Freezers , and Refrigerator / Freezers Baseline ADL 1996 Report on Page 4-2. [Reference 1] 1. Brushless DC Evaporator Fan Motors F 2003 Priority Setting - Supermarket Refrigeration Estimates with Timetrame = 26 years and Primary Energy Use used for Energy Savings Calculation 2. Combination: Hot Gas Defrost, Antisweat Heater Control, Defrost Control, Liquid-Suction Heat Exchangers for Low Temperature applications, Evaporative Condensers, Floating Head Pressure, Heat Reclaim, and Mechanical Subcoolin y 2003 Priority Setting - Supermarket Refri g eration Estimates with Timetrame = 26 years and Primary Energy Use used for Energy Savings Calculation

References 1. ADL, 1996, "Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment", Final Report to US Department of Energy, Of/ice of Building Technology, State and Community Programs, June 1996. 2. Ball, Jeffrey. Wall Street Journal "Companies Try Keeping Ice Cream Frozen, Emissions Down," May 4, 2005. Available at http://v»nv.greanpeace.org/usa/nevs/ask-and-ye shall-receive(companies-try-keeping-ice-crew 3. California Energy Commission, "Codes and Standards Enhancement Iniative for PY2004: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Options for Open Case Refrigerators and Freezers," May 11, 2004. Prepared by Davis Energy Group for CEC Page 1, 2, and 4. 4. California Energy Commission, "Codes and Standards Enhancement Iniative for PY2004: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Options for Commercial Packaged Refrigerators, Freezers, Refrigerator/Freezers, and Ice Makers," April 28, 2004. Prepared by ACEEE for CEC page 1. 

### Assumptions and References

Beverage Vending Machines Baseline 1. < 2 years payback (ECM motors for evaporator fans and high efflciency compressor)' 2. < 5 ears a back hi h efticienc condenser fan motor) 3. Ener Star Standard Tier 1 4. Ener Star Standard Tier 2 S. CEC Janua 1, 2006 Standard 6. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard

Ice Cream Freezers Solid Door Baseline 1. CEC January 1, 2007 Standard for Solid Doors 2. EnerQY Star Standard

Ice Cream Freezers Transparent Door Baseline 1. CEC Janua I, 2007 Standard for Trans arent Doors

Self-Contained Refrigerators, Freezers, and Refrigerators/Freezers (without doors) Baseline 1. CEC January I, 2007 Standard for Trans arent Doors emo e t,;onaens n9 (.;ommerc aJ He r gera ors, Freezers, and Refrigerator/Freezers Baseline 1. Brushless DC Eva orator Fan Motors 2. Combination: Hot Gas Defrost, Antisweat Heater Control, Defrost Control, Liquid-Suction Heat Exchangers for Low Temperature applications, Evaporative Condensers, Floating Head Pressure, Heat AOL 1996 Report for canned, bottled, milk, and juice beverage vending machines. The energy consumption data tram page 5-51, Table 4-34. [Reference 1]

1. ADL (1996) 2. ADL 1996 3. Ener Star Standard for Qualified Bevera e Vendin Machines Y 0.55 6. O.OOS·C 'r\tIere C**is~andible** ca acit assumed to be 400 cans com arin to UEC from**~PACI** 200S 4. Ener Slar Standard for Qualified Bevera e Vendin Machines Y _0.45 6. O.OOS*C where C is vandible assumed to be 400 cans com arin to UEC baseline S. CEC Standard for Refd erated canned and bottled bevera e v v.tlen tested at 90F or 'r\tIere C 

### = 400 can ca acit com aring 10 UEC baseline 6. CEC Standard for Refrigerated canned and bottled beverage vending machines 'r\tIen tested at 90F or where C 400 can capacity comparing to UEC baseline Wall ;::otreet Journal, May 4, 2005. Art!cle statIng "Umlever Ov.flS 1.2 m!lI!on retaIl Ice-cream freezers. In the U.;::o., >M1ere most Ice cream !s sold by big chainS such as Wal-Mart tores Inc., Umlever O'M1S only about 60,000 retaIl reezers." [Reference 2] he Department used the information from the article to further validate its assumption that 10% of total reach-in freezers with solid and transparent doors are ice cream freezers from the CEC 2004 Article. [Reference 4] The Department found a 27% greater energy consumption for ice cream freezers with solid doors 'r\tIen compared to solid door freezers using the CEC database. 1. CEC Standard for Roll-in or Roll-throu h cambinets that are freezers that are ice cream freezers, Table A-6 1605.3, 46 ftl\3 0.3SV + 0.62 3. Energy Star Standard for Qualified Commercial Solid Door Refrigerators and Freezers (0.39V + 0.82), using 48 ftA3

The Department used the CEC 2004 Report Page 1 [Reference 4]. The Department found 16% greater energy consumption for ice cream freezers 'Nith transparent doors when compared to transparent door freezers using the CEC database. 2. CEC Standard for Energy Star Qualified Commercial Solid Door Ice Cream Freezers, 46 ftl\3 (0.86V 

### + 0.33)

CEC Report 2004 [Reference 3] Open case refrigeration systems come in 3 configurations

- compressor and condenser integrated into the case, compressor is in the case and condenser is remotely located, compressor and condenser are remotely located. FMI in 2002 estimated 32,265 supermarkets and the average supermarket has 60 to 60 display cases. The Department used energy consumption data from the CEC 2004 Report, Page 4, v.tlich stated 178,000 open supermakert cases in CA used 2700 GWhlyr. [Reference 31 Codes and Standards Enhancementlntative for PY2004: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Options for Open Case Refrigerators and Freezers (May 11, 2004) Davis Energy Group for CEC Table 1, Page 6

ADL 1996 Report on Page 4-2. [Reference 11 F 2003 Priorit SeWn

- Su ermarket Refri eration Estimates Vllith Timeframe

- 26 ears and Prima Ener Use used for Ener Savin s Calculation

ReclaIm, and Mechanical SubcOOlinQ Fy 2003 Priority Setting

- Supermarket Refrigeration Estimates 'Nith Timeframe 

### = 26 years and Primary Energy Use used for Energy Savings Calculation

References 1. ADL, 1996,**~Energy** Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration**Equipment~,** Final Report to US Department of Energy, Office of Building TechnOlogy, State and Community Programs, June 1996. 2. Ball, Jeffrey. Wall Street Journal "Companies Try Keeping Ice Cream Frozen, Emissions Dov.fl," May 4, 2OOS. Available at htlp:II'IM'W.greenpeace.orglusa/newsiask-and-ye-shaU-recelvelcompanies-try-keeping-ice-crea 3. California Energy Commission, "Codes and Standards Enhancement Iniative for PY2OO4: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Options for Open Case Refrigerators and Freezers," May 11, 2004_ Prepared by Davis Energy Group for CEC Page 1, 2, and 4. 4. California Energy Commission, "Codes and Standards Enhancement Iniative for PY2OO4: Title 20 Standards Deve!opment Analysis of Standards Options for Commercial Packaged Refrigerators, Freezers, Refrigerator/Freezers, and Ice Makers," April 28, 2004. Prepared by ACEEE for CEC page 1.

## Ceiling Fans NOTE: Savings relative to typical new Installed Equipment Installed Technology Energy Annual Technology Technology Energy Base / Stock Lifetime Primary AEC Base / Stock UEC Typical New Savings Potential Energy Savings Savings Potential, 2009- E9uipment Tvpe ^lllions l ears uads k f Whl UEC fkWhl fquadsl r - 2034 fquadsl Ceiling Fans : Lighting Ceiling 1 EPAct 2005 (190 Watts)

2 ENERGY STAR® (38 Watts) 34.9 13 0.056 73 73 116 23 

## 0% 0.000

68% 0.038 0.00 0.74 Ceiling Fans

Fans: Lighting 1 EPAct 2005 (190 Watts) 2 ENERGY STAR® (38 Watts)

# Assumptions Assumption Value Units Source

Baseline lighting power use 120 watts Calwell & Horowitz, updated 2003 ENERGY STAR® lighting power use 38 watts NCI, 2005 and Energy Star®, 2005 EPAct 2005 lighting power use recommendation 190 watts EPAct 2005 Average ceiling fan lighting lifetime 13 years Appliance Magazine, 2000 Total ceiling fan installed base (2001) 192.8 million FY05 Priority Setting Percent ceiling fans suspended 94 percent Hunter, 2001 and NCI, 2005 Percent ceiling fans with candelabra lighting 20 percent RAW, 2005 Percent ceiling fans that have lighting 95 percent Calwell & Horowitz, updated 2003

AEC calculation for suspended ceiling fans with candelabra lighting Ceiling fan motor installed base (millions) 34.9 EPAct 2005 ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) ENERGY STAR® ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) Stock and typical new ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) Primary to electric conversion factor (Btu/kWh) kWh/yr ( millions ) fan lighting energy use Ceiling fan light AEC (Quads) 116 23 73 10958 5089 0.056 Assumptions Assum!;1tion Value Baseline lighting power use 120 ENERGY STAR® lighting power use 38 EPAct 2005 lighting power use recommendation 190 Average ceiling fan lighting lifetime 13 Total ceiling fan installed base (2001) 192.8 Percent ceiling fans suspended 94 Percent ceiling fans with candelabra lighting 20 Percent ceiling fans that have lighting 95

AEC calculation for sus!;1ended ceiling fans with candelabra lighting Ceiling fan motor installed base (millions) 34.9 EPAct 2005 ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) 116 ENERGY STAR® ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) 23 Stock and typical new ceiling fan lighting UEC (kWh) Primary to electric conversion factor (Btu/kWh) kWh/yr (millions) fan lighting energy use ICeiling fan light AEC (Quads) 

# 73 10958

5089 Units Source watts Calwell & Horowitz, updated 2003 watts NCI, 2005 and Energy Star®, 2005 watts EPAct 2005 years Appliance Magazine, 2000 million FY05 Priority Setting percent Hunter, 2001 and NCI, 2005 percent RLW, 2005 percent Calwell & Horowitz, updated 2003

# Combo Systems (oil)

Efficiency improvement Level j Efficiency Option 1

Discount rate 

# I 7% Discount to year 2003

Product lifetime ( to nearest y ear) 18 

# NES (quads)

NPV (billion $) 0.25 

# Combo Systems (oil)

1 Efficiency Improvement Level

IDiscount rate

1 

# Discount to year

1 

# Product lifetime (to nearest year) 

# f Efficiency Option 1 . 

# h3

7%1

181 NES (quads)

NPV (billion $) 

# 0.251

$0.601

## Combo Systems ( oil) Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment Surviving

Units ase DEC 

### Effic Improv. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings Base Operating

Cost Effie.

Improv

. Operating Cost Annual

Friel Cost Savings Manual

Friel Cost Savings PV

Cumulative Friel Cost Savings Delta Unit

Price Total

Incremental Equip

. Cost PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost PV

Cumulative Equip . Cost Net

Cumulative PV million million MMBTU/vr MMBTU/vr quads umds quads nods billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ 2001 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.49 $ 2.49 2002 0,09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 2003 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.63 $ 2.63 2004 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.47 $ 2.47 2005 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.23 S 2.23 2006 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.23 $ 2.23 2007 0.09 L64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2,23 S 323 2008 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.25 S 225 2009 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0285 $ 2.26 $ 2.26 2010 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.284 0.001 0.001 $ 2.25 0 2.25 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00 ) $ (0.00) 0 0.00 2011 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.283 0.002 0.002 S 2.28 $ 2.26 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) 8 (0.00) $ 0.01 2012 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0,282 0.002 0.005 S 329 $ 2.27 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0100) $ (0.00) $ 0.02 2013 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.281 0.003 0.008 $ 2.32 $ 2.29 $ 0.03 S 0.01 $ 0.03 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) 5 (0.00) $ 0.03 2014 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.281 0.004 0.012 $ 2.33 $ 2.30 $ 0.03 S 0.02 S 0.05 $ 2 2 S (0.00 ) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.05 2015 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.280 0,005 0.017 $ 2.36 S 2,32 0 0.04 0 0.02 S 0.07 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.06 2016 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0279 0.006 0.022 $ 2.39 S 2.35 S 0.05 S 0.02 $ 0.09 $ 2 $ (0.00 ) $ (0.00) S (0.01) 8 0.08 2017 0.09 1,64 139 132 0.285 0.278 0.006 0,029 $ 2,41 S 2.36 8 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.11 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.10 2018 0,09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.277 0.007 0.036 $ 2.43 $ 2.37 8 0.06 S 0.02 $ 0.13 $ 2 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) 8 0.12 2019 0.09 1,64 139 132 0.285 0.277 0.008 0.044 $ 2.45 S 2.38 $ 0.07 $ 0.02 $ 0.15 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.14 2020 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.276 0.009 0.053 S 2.47 0 2.40 $ 0,08 0 0.02 S 0.18 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.17 2021 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.275 0.010 0.062 S 2.49 $ 2.41 $ 0.06 $ 0,02 S 0.20 $ 2 8 (0.00 ) $ (0100) $ (0.01) $ 0.19 2022 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.274 0.010 0.072 S 2.51 $ 2.42 $ 0.09 $ 0.03 $ 0.23 $ 22 S (0.00) 9 (0.00) 8 (0.01) $ 0.22 2023 0.09 1.64 139 132 0,285 0,273 0.011 0.084 $ 2.53 $ 2.43 $ 0.10 $ 0.03 S 0.25 $ 22 S (0.00) $ (0.00) S (0.01) S 0.24 2024 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.273 0.012 0.096 $ 154 S 2.44 $ 0.11 $ 0.03 $ 0.28 S 22 0 (0.00) S (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.27 2025 0.09 1,64 139 132 0.265 0.272 0.013 0.108 $ 2.56 $ 2.45 $ 0.11 $ 0.03 $ 0.31 $ 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.29 2026 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.271 0.014 0.122 $ 2.59 $ 2.46 S 0.12 0 0.03 $ 0.33 S 2 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.32 2027 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0 .270 0.014 0.136 $ 2.61 8 2.47 S 0.13 8 0.03 $ 0.36 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0100) $ (0.01) S 0.34 2028 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.150 $ 2.63 $ 2.49 S 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.38 $ 22 $ ( 0.00) $ (0 .00) $ (0.01) S 0.37 2029 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.165 $ 2.65 S 2.51 8 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.40 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) 9 0.39 2030 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0,179 $ 2,67 S 2.53 $ 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.43 $ 2 0 (0.00) $ (0.00) 8 (0.01) S 0.41 2031 0.09 1,64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.193 $ 2.69 1 2.55 S 0.14 5 0.02 $ 0.45 0 22 $ ( 0.00) $ (0 .00) $ (0.01) $ 0.43 2032 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.208 $ 2.71 $ 2.57 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.47 $ 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) S (0.02) $ 0.45 2033 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.222 $ 2.73 $ 2.59 S 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.48 8 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.02) S 0.47 2034 0.09 1,64 139 132 0285 0.270 0.014 0.236 $ 2.75 $ 2.61 0 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.50 $ 22 S (0.00) $ (0.00) S (0.02) 8 0.49 2035 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0,270 0.014 0.251 S 2.77 $ 2.63 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.52 $ 2 S (0.00) $ (0.00) S (0.02) S 0.50 2036 0 1.55 139 132 0.269 0.255 0.014 0.264 $ 2,64 $ 2.50 $ 0.13 S 0.01 8 0.53 $ (0.02) $ 0.52 2037 0 1.46 139 132 0.253 0.240 0.013 0.277 5 2,50 S 2.37 0 0.13 $ 0.01 $ 0.54 $ (0.02) $ 0.53 2038 0 1.37 139 132 0.237 0.225 0.012 0.289 $ 2.36 $ 224 $ 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0,55 $ (0.02) S 0.54 2039 0 1.27 139 132 0.221 0.210 0.011 0.300 $ 2_2 S 2.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.01 $ 0.56 S (0.02) S 0.55 2040 0 1.18 139 132 0.206 0.195 0.010 0.311 $ 108 $ 1.97 8 0.10 $ 0.01 $ 0.57 S (002) $ 0.56 2041 0 1.09 139 132 0.190 0.180 0.010 0 .320 $ 1.93 $ 1.84 $ 0.10 $ 0.01 $ 0.58 S (0.02) $ 0.56 2042 0 1.00 139 132 0.174 0.165 0.009 0.329 S 1.79 $ 1.70 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 $ 0.59 5 (0.02) S 0.57 2043 0 0.91 139 132 0.158 0.150 0.008 0.337 $ 1.64 $ 1.55 $ 0.08 $ 0.01 $ 0.59 $ (0.02) $ 0.58 2044 0 0.82 139 132 0.142 0.135 0.007 0.344 $ 1.48 $ 1.41 $ 0.07 S 0.00 $ 0.60 $ (0.02) S 0.58 2045 0 0.73 139 132 0.126 0.120 0.006 0.350 S 1.33 $ 126 $ 0.07 $ 0.00 $ 0.60 $ (0.02) $ 0,59 2046 0 0.64 139 132 0.111 0.105 0,006 0,356 $ 1.17 $ 1.11 $ 0.06 $ 0.00 $ 0,60 $ (0.02) S 0.59 2047 0 0.55 139 132 0.095 0.090 0.005 0.361 $ 1,01 $ 0.96 S 0.05 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (0.02) S 0.59 2048 0 0.46 139 132 0.079 0.075 0.004 0.365 $ 0,85 S 0,81 8 0.04 $ 0.00 S 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.59 2049 0 0.36 139 132 0.063 0.060 0.003 0.368 $ 0.69 S 0.65 $ 0.03 $ 0.00 S 0.61 $ (0,02) $ 0.59 2050 0 0.27 139 132 0.047 0.045 0.002 0.370 S 0.52 $ 0.49 S 0.03 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (002) $ 0.60 2051 0 0.18 139 132 0,032 0.030 0.002 0.372 S 0.35 $ 0.33 $ 0.02 $ 0,00 8 0.61 S (0.02) S 0.60 2052 0 0.09 139 132 0.016 0.015 0.001 0.373 $ 0.17 $ 0.16 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.60 2053 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0,000 0.000 0.373 S - $ - $ - 5 - $ 0.61 S (0.02) $ 0.60 2054 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.373 S - $ - $ - S - S 0.61 8 (0.02) $ 0.60 2055 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0,000 0.000 0.373 $ $ $ - $ $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.60 

## Combo Systems (oil) Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie. PV Effie 

### Improv. Amwoi 

## Cumulative Improv. Anllual 

### PVAllnllal CUIIlulative 

### Total PVTotal PV Net New Surviving Improv. Base Total 

### Total Energy Energy 

### Base Operating Operating Fuel Cost 

### FIle1Cost FlIelCost DeltaU"it 

### lI,crementai Incremental 

### CUlllulative Cumulative 

### Year Shipment Units 

### Base UEC UEC Energy 

### Energy Savings Savings 

### Cost Cost Savings 

### Savings Savings 

### Price Equip. Cost Equip Cost Equip. Cost 

### PV million million 

### MMBTUlvr MMBTU/vr nods 

### !lads !lads !lads 

### billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ 

### $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ billi01I 

### $ 2001 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.49 $ 2.49 2002 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 2003 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.63 S 2.63 2004 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.47 S 2.47 2005 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.23 S 2.23 2006 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.23 S 2.23 

### 2007 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 

### 2.23 S 

### 223 2008 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.25 S 2.25 

### 2009 0.09 1.64 139 139 0.285 0.285 $ 2.26 $ 2.26 2010 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.284 0.001 0.001 $ 2.25 $ 2.25 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 S 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) $ (0.00) $ 0.00 2011 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.283 0.002 0.002 $ 2.28 $ 2.26 $ 

## om $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) S (0.00) S 

## om 2012 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.282 0.002 0.005 S 2.29 $ 2.27 $ 0.02 S 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (000) $ 0.02 2013 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.281 0.003 0.008 $ 2.32 $ 2.29 $ 0.Q3 S 0.01 $ 0.03 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ 0.03 2014 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.281 0.004 0.012 $ 2.33 $ 2.30 $ 0.03 S 0.02 $ 0.05 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.05 2015 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.280 0.005 0.017 $ 2.36 S 2.32 S 0.04 $ 0.02 $ 0.07 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.06 2016 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.279 0.006 0.022 $ 2.39 $ 2.35 S 0.05 S 0.02 $ 0.09 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.08 2017 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.278 0.006 0.029 $ 2.41 $ 2.36 S 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.11 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.10 2018 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.277 0.007 0.036 $ 2.43 $ 2.37 $ 0.06 S 0.02 $ 0.13 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.12 2019 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.277 0.008 0.044 $ 2.45 $ 2.38 $ 0.07 $ 0.02 $ 0.15 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.14 2020 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.276 0.009 0.053 S 2.47 $ 2.40 $ 0.08 $ 0.02 $ 0.18 $ 22 S (0.00) $ (000) $ (0.01) $ 0.17 2021 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.275 0.010 0.062 $ 2.49 $ 2.41 $ 0.08 $ 0,02 S 0.20 $ 22 S (0.00) $ (000) $ (0.01) $ 0.19 2022 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.274 0.010 0.072 $ 2.51 $ 2.42 $ 0.09 $ 0.03 $ 0.23 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.22 2023 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.273 0.011 0.084 $ 2.53 $ 2.43 $ 0.10 $ 0.03 $ 0.25 $ 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) S (0.01) S 0.24 2024 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.273 0.012 0.096 $ 2.54 $ 2.44 $ 0.11 $ 

## o.oJ $ 0.28 S 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.27 2025 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.272 0.013 0.108 $ 2.56 $ 2.45 $ 0.11 $ 0.03 $ 0.31 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.29 2026 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.271 0.014 0.122 S 2.59 $ 2.46 $ 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.33 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.32 2027 0.09 

### 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.136 $ 2.61 $ 2.47 $ 0.13 S 0.03 $ 0.36 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.34 2028 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.150 $ 2.63 S 2.49 $ 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.38 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.37 2029 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.165 $ 2.65 S 2.51 S 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.40 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.39 2030 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.179 $ 2.67 $ 2.53 $ 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.43 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) S 0.41 2031 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.193 $ 2.69 $ 2.55 S 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.45 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.01) $ 0.43 2032 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 Q.208 $ 2.71 $ 2.57 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.47 $ 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) $ (0.02) $ 0.45 2033 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.222 $ 2.73 $ 2.59 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.48 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) $ (0.02) S 0.47 2034 0.09 1.64 139 132 0285 0270 0.014 0.236 $ 2.75 $ 2.61 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.50 S 22 $ (0.00) S (0.00) S (0.02) $ 0.49 2035 0.09 1.64 139 132 0.285 0.270 0.014 0.251 $ 2.77 $ 2.63 $ 0.14 $ 0.02 $ 0.52 $ 22 $ (0.00) $ (0.00) S (0.02) $ 0.50 2036 0 1.55 139 132 0.269 0.255 0.DI4 0.264 $ 2.64 $ 2.50 $ 0.13 $ 0.01 $ 0.53 $ (0.02) $ 0.52 2037 0 1.46 139 132 0.253 0240 0.013 0.277 S 2.50 $ 2.37 $ 0.13 $ O.DI S 0.54 $ (0.02) $ 053 2038 0 1.37 139 132 0.237 0.225 0.012 0.289 $ 2.36 $ 2.24 $ 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0.55 $ (0.02) S 054 2039 0 1.27 139 132 0.221 0.210 0.011 0.300 $ 2.22 $ 2.11 $ 0.11 $ 0.01 $ 056 S (0.02) S 0.55 2040 0 U8 139 132 0.206 0.195 0.010 0.311 $ 2.08 $ 1.97 $ 0.10 $ 0.01 $ 057 $ (002) S 0.56 2041 0 1.09 139 132 0.190 0.180 0.010 0.320 $ 1.93 $ 1.84 $ 0.10 $ 0.01 $ 0.58 S (0.02) $ 056 2042 0 1.00 139 132 0.174 0.165 0.009 0.329 $ 1.79 $ 1.70 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 $ 0.59 $ (0.02) $ 0.57 2043 0 0.91 139 132 0.158 0.150 0.008 0.337 $ 1.64 $ 1.55 $ 0.08 $ 

## om $ 0.59 $ (0.02) $ 0.58 2044 0 0.82 139 132 0.142 0.135 0.007 0.344 $ 1.48 $ 1.41 $ 0.07 $ 0.00 $ 0.60 $ (0.02) $ 0.58 2045 0 0.73 139 132 0.126 0.120 0.006 0.350 $ 1.33 S 1.26 $ 0.07 $ 0.00 $ 0.60 $ (0.02) $ 059 2046 0 0.64 139 132 0.111 0.105 0.006 0.356 $ 1.17 $ 1.11 $ 0.06 $ 0.00 $ 0.60 $ (0.02) $ 0.59 2047 0 0.55 139 132 0.095 0.090 0.005 0.361 $ 1.01 $ 0.96 $ 0.05 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 059 2048 0 0.46 139 132 0.079 0.075 0.004 0.365 $ 0.85 $ 0.81 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 S 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.59 2049 0 0.36 139 132 0.063 0.060 0.003 0.368 $ 0.69 $ 0.65 $ 0.03 S 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (D.02) $ 0.59 2050 0 0.27 139 132 0.047 0.045 0.002 0.370 $ 0.52 $ 0.49 $ 0.03 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.60 2051 0 0.18 139 132 0.032 0.030 0.002 0.372 $ 0.35 $ 0.33 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 S (0.02) S 0.60 2052 0 0.09 139 132 0.016 0.Ql5 0.001 0.373 S 0.17 $ 0.16 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.60 2053 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.373 $ $ $ $ $ 0.61 $ 10.02) $ 0.60

# ~~~ I 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.373 $ $ S $ $ 0.61 S (0.02) $ 0.60 0 0.00 139 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.373 $ $ $ $ $ 0.61 $ (0.02) $ 0.60

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 0.091 Note: a point estimate of 91,000 units/year is used 1983 0.091 1984 0.091 1985 0.091 1986 0.091 1987 0.091 1988 0.091 1989 0.091 1990 0.091 1991 0.091 1992 0.091 1993 0.091 1994 0.091 1995 0.091 1996 0.091 1997 0.091 1998 0.091 1999 0.091 2000 0.091 2001 0.091 2002 0.091 2003 0.091 2004 0.091 2005 0.091 2006 0.091 2007 0.091 2008 0.091 2009 0.091 2010 0.091 2011 0.091 2012 0.091 2013 0.091 2014 0.091 2015 0.091 2016 0.091 2017 0.091 2018 0.091 2019 0.091 2020 0.091 2021 0.091 2022 0.091 2023 0.091 2024 0.091 2025 0.091 2026 0.091 2027 0.091 2028 0.091 2029 0.091 2030 0.091 2031 0.091 2032 0.091 2033 0.091 2034 0.091 2035 0.091 

# Shipments, millions of units Historical 

# + Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

# Projected 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 Note: a point estimate of 91,000 units/year is used

# Efficiency Level UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$)

Base 139.0 $ 3,531 electronic ignition 132.0 $ 3,553 non-condensing limit 129.0 $ 4,499 Efficiency Level Base electronic ignition non-condensing limit UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$) 

# 139.0 

# $ 3,531 132.0 $ 

# 3,553 129.0 

# $ 4,499

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential petroleum products

Conv Factor source/site 2001 1.25 2002 1.25 2003 1.25 2004 1.25 petroleum production losses 2005 1.25 20% 2006 1.25 2007 1.25 2008 1.25 2009 1.25 2010 1.25 2011 1.25 2012 1.25 2013 1.25 2014 1.25 2015 1.25 2016 1.25 2017 1.25 2018 1.25 2019 1.25 2020 1.25 2021 1.25 2022 1.25 2023 1.25 2024 1.25 2025 1.25 2026 1.25 2027 1.25 2028 1.25 2029 1.25 2030 1.25 2031 1.25 2032 1.25 2033 1.25 2034 1.25 2035 1.25 2036 1.25 2037 1.25 2038 1.25 2039 1.25 2040 1.25 2041 1.25 2042 1.25 2043 1.25 2044 1.25 2045 1.25 2046 1.25 2047 1.25 2048 1.25 2049 1.25 2050 1.25 2051 1.25 2052 1.25 2053 1.25 2054 1.25 2055 1.25 

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential petroleum products

Conv Factor source/site 

# 2001 1.25 2002 1.25 2003 1.25 2004 1.25 2005 1.25 2006 1.25 2007 1.25 2008 1.25 2009 1.25 2010 1.25 2011 1.25 2012 1.25 2013 1.25 2014 1.25 2015 1.25 2016 1.25 2017 1.25 2018 1.25 2019 1.25 2020 1.25 2021 1.25 2022 1.25 2023 1.25 2024 1.25 2025 1.25 2026 1.25 2027 1.25 2028 1.25 2029 1.25 2030 1.25 2031 1.25 2032 1.25 2033 1.25 2034 1.25 2035 1.25 2036 1.25 2037 1.25 2038 1.25 2039 1.25 2040 1.25 2041 1.25 2042 1.25 2043 1.25 2044 1.25 2045 1.25 2046 1.25 2047 1.25 2048 1.25 2049 1.25 2050 1.25 2051 1.25 2052 1.25 2053 1.25 2054 1.25 2055 1.25 petroleum production losses 

# 20%

# Fuel Price

Petroleum Products $/MMBTU 

# 2001 10.95 from AEO 2004 2002 9.87 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 1 1. 53 2004 10.83 2005 9.81 2006 9.80 2007 9.81 2008 9.86 2009 9.92 2010 9.90 2011 10.00 2012 10.06 2013 10.18 2014 10.25 2015 10.38 2016 10.51 2017 10.59 2018 10.67 2019 10.75 2020 10.86 2021 10.95 2022 11.03 2023 11.11 2024 11.17 2025 1 1.26 2026 11.36 2027 11.44 2028 11.53 2029 11.62 2030 11.72. 2031 11.80 2032 11.89 2033 11.98 2034 12.07 2035 12.17 2036 12.26 2037 12.36 2038 12.45 2039 12.55 2040 12.64 2041 12.74 2042 12.84 2043 12.94 2044 13.04 2045 13.14 2046 13.24 2047 13.34 2048 13.44 2049 13.55 2050 13.65 2051 13.76 2052 13.86 2053 13.97 2054 14.08 2055 14.18



# Page 7 Fuel Price

Petroleum Products 

# $IMMBTU 

# 2001 10.95 from AEO 2004 

# 2002 9.87 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 

# 2003 11.53 2004 10.83 2005 9

.. 81 2006 9.80 2007 9.81 2008 9.86 2009 9.92 2010 9.90 2011 10.00 2012 10.06. 2013 10.18 2014 10.25 2015 10,J8 2016 1051 2017 10.59 2018 10.67 2019 10.75 2020 10,86 2021 10.95 2022 11.03 2023 

# lUI 2024 

# Jhl7 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055

Page 7

# Combo Systems (gas)

Efficiency Improvement Level Efficiency Option 1

Discount rate 

# I 7%o

Discount to year 2003

Product lifetime ( to nearest y ear) 9 NES (quads) 

# NPV (billion $) $0.23 

# Combo Systems (gas)

1 

# Efficiency Improvement Level 

# r Efficiency Option 1

IDiscount rate 

# 7%1

1 

# Discount to year 

# r 2003 

# 3

1 Product lifetime (to nearest year) 

# 91 NES (quads)

NPV (billion $) 

# 0.151

$0.231

## Combo Systems (gas) Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment million Surviving

Units million ase UEC

MMBTU/vr Effic

Intprov. UEC

MMBTU/vr Base Total

Energy quads Effic

Itnprov. Total Energy quads Annual

Energy Savings

umds 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings quads Base Operating

Cost billion $ Effrc.

Improv. Operating Cost billion $ 

### Annual

Fuel Cost Savings billion $ PVAnnual

Fuel Cost Savings billion $ PV

Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings billion $ Delta Unit

Price $ Total

Incremental Equip . Cost billion $ PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost billion $ PV

Cumulative Equip. Cost billion $ Net

Cumulative PV billion $ 2001 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.94 $ 0.94 2002 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.75 S 0.75 2003 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 S 0.89 $ 0.89 2004 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.87 S 0.87 2005 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.82 $ 0.82 2006 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 2007 0.10 0.90 109 109 0,107 0,107 $ 0.79 $ 0.79 2008 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.79 $ 0.79 2009 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 S 0.77 $ 0.77 2010 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.106 0,001 0.001 $ 0.75 S 0.75 S 0.01 S 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.00) 2011 0.10 0,90 109 102 0.107 0.105 0.002 0.002 $ 0.77 $ 0.76 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.00) 2012 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.104 0.002 0.005 $ 0.78 S 0.76 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 S 108 $ (0.01) S (0.01) 9 (0.02) 5 (0.00) 2013 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.104 0.003 0.008 $ 0.80 $ 0.77 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.03 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.02) $ 0.01 2014 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.103 0.004 0.011 $ 0.80 $ 0.77 $ 0.03 $ 0.01 $ 0.04 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0101) $ (0.03) $ 0.01 2015 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.102 0.005 0.016 $ 0.81 $ 0.78 $ 0.03 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) S (0.03) S 0.03 2016 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.101 0.005 0.021 S 0.81 $ 0.77 S 0.04 S 0.02 S 0.08 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.04) $ 0.04 2017 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.101 0.006 0.027 $ 0.81 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 S 0.02 $ 0.09 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.04) $ 0.05 2018 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.034 $ 0.81 $ 036 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.11 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) S (0.05) $ 0.07 2019 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.041 $ 0.80 $ 0.75 S 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.13 $ 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.05) $ 0.08 2020 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.048 $ 0.81 S 0.76 $ 0.05 S 0.02 $ 0.15 S 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.05) $ 0.09 2021 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.055 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 S 0.16 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.11 2022 0.10 0.90 109 102 0,107 0,100 0.007 0.062 0 0.82 S 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.18 $ 108 0 (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.12 2023 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.066 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.19 $ 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.13 2024 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.075 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.20 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.14 2025 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.082 $ 0.82 $ 0.76 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.22 S 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) 5 (0.07) S 0.15 2026 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.089 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.23 $ 108 $ (0.01 ) S (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.16 2027 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.096 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.24 $ 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.16 2028 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.103 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.25 S 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.17 2029 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0, 100 0 .007 0.110 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.26 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.18 2030 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.116 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.26 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.19 2031 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0,100 0.007 0.123 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 S 0.27 S 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.19 2032 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.130 5 0.82 $ 0.77 0 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.28 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0100) $ (0.08) $ 0.20 2033 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0,100 0,007 0.137 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 S 0.01 S 0.29 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 020 2034 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.144 $ 0.82 S 0.77 S 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.29 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.21 2035 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.151 $ 0.82 0 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.30 $ 108 $ (0.01) 9 (0.00) $ (0.09) $ 0.21 2036 0 0.80 109 102 0.095 0.089 0.006 0.157 S 0.73 $ 0.68 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.30 $ (0.09) $ 0.22 2037 0 0.70 109 102 0.083 0,078 0.005 0.162 S 0.64 $ 0.60 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.31 $ (0.09) S 022 2038 0 0.60 109 102 0.071 0.067 0.005 0.167 $ 0.55 $ 0.51 $ 0.04 S 0.00 $ 0.31 $ (0.09) $ 023 2039 0 0.50 109 102 0.059 0.055 0.004 0.170 $ 0.46 $ 0.43 S 0.03 $ 0.00 $ 0.31 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2040 0 0.40 109 102 0.047 0.044 0.003 0.173 $ 0.37 $ 0.34 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 S (0.09) $ 0.23 2041 0 0.30 109 102 0.036 0.033 0.002 0.176 S 0.27 $ 0.26 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0,32 S (0.09) $ 0.23 2042 0 020 109 102 0.024 0.022 0.002 0.177 $ 0.18 $ 0.17 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2043 0 0.10 109 102 0.012 0.011 0.001 0.178 $ 0.09 $ 0.09 0 0.01 $ 0.00 S 0.32 S (0.09) S 023 2044 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2045 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 S (0.09) $ 0,23 2046 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S - $ - $ - $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2047 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S - $ - $ $ - S 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2048 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 023 2049 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2050 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 S - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 0.23 2051 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2052 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ - $ - $ $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2053 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2054 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2055 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ 5 $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 0.23 

## Combo Systems (gas) 

## Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie. PV Effie 

## Improv. 

## Annual CU1IJulative 

## Improv. Annual PVA"""al 

### CUlIlulative Total PVTotal PV Net New Surviving 

### lmprov. 

### Base Total Total Ellergy Ellergy 

### Base Operating Operating 

### Fuel Cost Fuel Cost File/Cost 

### Del/a Unit 

### IIlCremelltai IncremelJtal Cumulative Cumulative Year Shipment U"its Base VEC VEC Ellergy 

### Energy Savings SaviIJgs 

### Cost Cost 

### Savings Savings Savings Price Equip. Cost 

### Equip Cost Equip. Cost PV 

### million million MMBTV/vr MMBTV/vr 

### uatls uads flads 

### uads billion 

### $ billion 

### $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ billion 

### $ $ 

### billion $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billioll $ 2001 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.lD7 0.107 $ 0.94 S 0.94 

### 2002 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.75 $ 0.75 2003 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.89 S 0.89 2004 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.87 S 0.87 2005 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.82 $ 0,82 2006 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.80 $ 0.80 2007 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.79 $ 0.79 2008 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.79 $ 0.79 2009 0.10 0.90 109 109 0.107 0.107 $ 0.77 $ 0.77 2010 0.10 0.90 109 

### 102 0.107 0.106 0.001 0.001 $ 0.75 $ 0.75 $ 

# om s 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.01) $ <0.01) $ (0.00) 

### 20ll 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.105 0.002 0.002 $ 0.77 $ 0.76 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.01) S (0.00) 2012 0.10 0.90 109 

### 102 0.107 0.104 0.002 0.005 $ 0.78 $ 0.76 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 S 108 $ (0.01) $ <0.01) S (0.02) $ (0.00) 

### 2013 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.104 0.003 0.008 $ 0.80 $ 0.77 $ 0.02 $ 

# om $ 0.03 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.02) $ 

# om 2014 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.103 0.004 0.011 S 0.80 $ 0.77 $ 0.03 $ 

# om $ 0.04 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.01) $ (0.03) S 

# om 2015 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.102 0.005 0.016 $ 0.81 $ 0.78 $ 0.03 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ 10.00) $ (0.03) S 0.01 2016 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.101 0.005 0.021 $ 0.81 $ 0.77 $ 0.04 $ 0.02 $ 0.08 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.04) $ 0.04 2017 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.101 0.006 0.027 S 0.81 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.09 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) 

### $ (0.04) $ 0.05 2018 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.034 $ 0.81 $ 0.76 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.11 $ 108 $ (O.O() $ (0.00) $ (0.05) $ 0.07 2019 0.10 0.90 to9 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.041 $ 0.80 $ 0.75 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.13 $ 108 $ 10.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.05) $ 0.08 2020 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.to7 0.100 0.007 0.048 $ 0.8( $ 0.76 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.15 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.05) $ 0.09 2021 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.055 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 $ 0.16 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ 10.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.11 2022 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.062 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.18 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.12 2023 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.008 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.19 $ 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.06) $ 0.11 2024 O.to 0.90 to9 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.075 S 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 

## om $ 0.20 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ 10.07) $ 0.14 2025 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.082 $ 0.82 $ 0.76 $ 0.05 $ 

# om $ 0,12 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.15 2026 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.089 $ 0.82 S 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 

# om $ 0.23 $ to8 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.16 2027 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.096 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 

# om $ 0.24 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.16 2028 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.to7 0.100 0.007 0.101 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 

# om $ 0.25 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.07) $ 0.17 2029 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.110 

### $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.26 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.18 2030 0.10 0.90 109 to2 0.to7 0.100 0.007 0.116 S 0.82 $ 0.77 S 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.26 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) S (0.08) $ 0.19 2031 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.123 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.27 $ 108 S (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.19 2032 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.130 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.28 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (000) $ (0.08) $ 0.20 2033 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.137 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 S 0.05 S 0.01 $ 0.29 $ to8 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.20 2034 0.10 0.90 109 102 0.107 0.100 0.007 0.144 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.29 $ 108 $ (0.01) $ (0.00) $ (0.08) $ 0.21 2035 O.to 0.90 109 102 0.to7 0.100 0.007 0.151 $ 0.82 $ 0.77 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.30 $ 108 $ (0.01) S (0.00) $ (0.09) $ 0.21 2036 0 0.80 109 102 0.095 0.089 0.006 0.157 $ 0.73 $ 0.68 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.10 $ (0.09) S 0.22 2037 0 0.70 109 101 0.083 0.078 0.005 0.162 $ 0.64 $ 0.60 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.31 $ (0.09) $ 0.22 2038 0 0.60 109 102 0.071 0.067 0.005 0.167 $ 0.55 $ 0.51 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.31 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2039 0 0.50 109 102 0.059 0.055 0.004 0.170 $ 0.46 $ 0.43 $ 0.03 $ 0.00 $ 0.3l $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2040 0 0.40 109 102 0.047 0.044 0.003 0.173 $ 0.37 $ 0.34 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 S (0.09) S 0.23 2041 0 0.30 109 102 0.036 0.033 0.002 0.176 $ 0.27 $ 0.26 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 0.23 2042 0 0.20 to9 102 0.024 0.022 0.002 0.177 $ 0.18 $ 0.17 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2043 0 0.10 109 102 0.012 0011 0.001 0.178 $ 0.09 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2044 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 

### S (0.09) $ 0.23 2045 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2046 0 0.00 to9 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2047 0 0.00 to9 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2048 0 0.00 to9 

### 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 0.23 2049 0 0.00 109 to2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2050 0 0.00 to9 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2051 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2052 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23 2053 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) $ 0.23

# ~~~: I 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 $ (0.09) S 0.23 0 0.00 109 102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.178 $ $ $ $ $ 0.32 S (0.09) S 0.23

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 0.100 Note: a point estimate of 100,000 units/year is used 1983 0.100 1984 0.100 1985 0.100 1986 0.100 1987 0.100 1988 0.100 1989 0.100 1990 0.100 1991 0.100 1992 0.100 1993 0.100 1994 0.100 1995 0.100 1996 0.100 1997 0.100 1998 0.100 1999 0.100 2000 0.100 2001 0.100 2002 0.100 2003 0.100 2004 0.100 2005 0.100 2006 0.100 2007 0.100 2008 0.100 2009 0.100 2010 0.100 2011 0.100 2012 0.100 2013 0.100 2014 0.100 2015 0.100 2016 0.100 2017 0.100 2018 0.100 2019 0.100 2020 0.100 2021 0.100 2022 0.100 2023 0.100 2024 0.100 2025 0.100 2026 0.100 2027 0.100 2028 0.100 2029 0.100 2030 0.100 2031 0.100 2032 0.100 2033 0.100 2034 0.100 2035 0.100 

# Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical 

# + Year Projected 1982 

# 0.100 1983 

# 0.100 1984 

# 0.100 1985 

# 0.100 1986 

# 0.100 1987 

# 0.100 1988 

# 0.100 1989 

# 0.100 1990 

# 0.100 1991 

# 0.100 1992 

# 0.100 1993 

# 0.100 1994 

# 0.100 1995 

# 0.100 1996 

# 0.100 1997 

# 0.100 1998 

# 0.100 1999 

# 0.100 2000 

# 0.100 2001 

# 0.100 2002 

# 0.100 2003 

# 0.100 2004 

# 0.100 2005 

# 0.100 2006 

# 0.100 2007 

# 0.100 2008 

# 0.100 2009 

# 0.100 2010 

# 0.100 2011 

# 0.100 2012 

# 0.100 2013 

# 0.100 2014 

# 0.100 2015 

# 0.100 2016 

# 0.100 2017 

# 0.100 2018 

# 0.100 2019 

# 0.100 2020 

# 0.100 2021 

# 0.100 2022 

# 0.100 2023 

# 0.100 2024 

# 0.100 2025 

# 0.100 2026 

# 0.100 2027 

# 0.100 2028 

# 0.100 2029 

# 0.100 2030 

# 0.100 2031 

# 0.100 2032 

# 0.100 2033 

# 0.100 2034 

# 0.100 2035 

# 0.100 Note: a point estimate of 100,000 units/year is used

# Efficiency Level UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$)

Base 109.0 $ 419 electronic ignition 102.0 $ 527 non-condensing limit 99.0 $ 892 

# Efficiency Level Base electronic ignition non-condensing limit UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$) 109.0 $ 419 102.0 $ 527

99.0 $ 892

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas

Conv Factor source/site 2001 1.09 2002 1.09 

# 2003 1.09 calculated from AEO 2004: 2004 1.09 natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 2005 1.09 8% 2006 1.09 2007 1.09 2008 1.09 2009 1.09 2010 1.09 2011 1.09 2012 1.09 2013 1.09 2014 1.09 2015 1.09 2016 1.09 2017 1.09 2018 1.09 2019 1.09 2020 1.09 2021 1.09 2022 1.09 2023 1.09 2024 1.09 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas

Conv Factor source/site 2001 1.09 2002 1.09 2003 1.09 2004 1.09 2005 1.09 2006 1.09 2007 1.09 2008 1.09 2009 1.09 2010 1.09 2011 1.09 2012 1.09 2013 1.09 2014 1.09 2015 1.09 2016 1.09 2017 1.09 2018 1.09 2019 1.09 2020 1.09 2021 1.09 2022 1.09 2023 1.09 2024 1.09 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 calculated from AEO 2004: natural gas transmission and distribution losses 

# = 8%

# Fuel Price

Natural Gas $/MMBTU $/1000 ft3 

# 2001 9.54 

# 9.79 from AEO 2004 2002 7.66 7.86 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 9.04 

# 9.29 2004 8.83 9.07 1.027 MMBTU/1000 ft3 2005 8.40 

# 8.63 2006 8.20 5.=12 2007 8.09 8.31 

# 2008 8.04 8.26

2009 7.81 8.02 

# 2010 7.68 7.88 2011 7.81 8.02 2012 7.94 

# 8.16 2013 8.10 8.32 2014 8.19 8.41 2015 8.30 8.52 2016 8.31 8.53 2017 8.31 8.53 2018 8.25 8.48 2019 8.17 8.40 

# 2020 8.24 

# 8.47 2021 8.41 8.64 2022 8.39 8.62 2023 8.38 8.61 2024 8.37 8.60 2025 8.33 8.56 2026 8.34 

# 2027 8.34 2028 8.34 

# 2029 8.35 2030 8.37 2031 8.38 2032 8.38 

# 2033 8.38 2034 8.38 2035 8.38 2036 8.38 2037 8.39 2038 8.39 2039 8.39 2040 8.40 2041 8.40 2042 8.40 2043 8.41 2044 8.41 2045 8.41 2046 8.42 2047 8.42 2048 8.42 2049 S.43 2050 8.43 2051 5.44 2052 8.44 2053 8.44 2054 8A5 2055 8.45



# Page 6 Fuel Price



# Natural Gas 

# $IMMBTU $/1000 ft3 2001 9.54 9.79 from AEO 2004 

# 2002 7.66 7.86**.~_,.:',** 

# .. _",c,_,_,,_. based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 

# 2003 9;04 9.29 

# 2004 8.83 9:07 

# 1.027 

# MMBTU/lOOO ft3 2005 8,40 8.63 

# 2006 8.20 8.42 

# 2007 8.09 8.31 

# 2008 8.04 8.26 

# 2009 7.81 8.02 

# 2010 7.68 7.88 

# 2011 7.81 8.02 

# 2012 7.94 8.16 

# 2013 8.10 8.32 

# 2014 8.(9 8.41 

# 2015 8:30 8.52 

# 2016 8:31 .8.53 

# 2017 8.31 8.53 

# 2018 8.25 8.48 

# 2019 8.17 8.40 

# 2020 8.24 8.47 

# 2021 8.4t: 8:64 

# 2022 8:39 8.62 

# 2023 8.}8 8;61 

# 2024 8.37 8.60 

# 2025 8.56 

# 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055

Page 6Electric Motors , 1-200HP , Commercial. This file contains calculations for TSD Table A5-8.

Installed base efficiency HP Efficiency (AOL 1999) HP Class Efficiency ( class avg) 1 75 1 to 5 79 5 83 5to20 85.5 20 88 20 to 50 88.5 50 89 50 to 100 89.5 100 90 100 to 200 90.5 200 91

Source for data below: ADL-1999, Figure ES-3, p. x (i.e. roman numeral ten) Note: "arbitrary units " as used below refer to the vertical grid spacing in ADL-1999 Figure ES-3. For motor Inventory, one arbitrary unit corresponds to approximately 5.1 million motors. For AEC, one arbitrary unit corresponds to approximately 12.3 billion kWh. Inventorytolal (million): 123 HP EPACF NEMA PREM AEC (billion kWh) 356 1 82.5 85.5 5 87.5 89.5 v 1 HP 1-200 HP 0 200 HP Total (arbitrary unls) 20 91 93 Inventory (arbitrary units) 17 7 Approx. 0 24 50 93 94.5 AEC (arbitrary units) 9 18 2 29 100 94.1 95.4 Inventory (fraction) 0.71 0 29 Approx 0 200 95 95.8 AEC (fraction ) 0.31 . 0.62 .

0.07 Efficiency standards for 4 pole (1800 RPMS) GDP motors HP EPACT NEMA PREM HP AVG Inventory (millions) 87.1 35.9 Approx.0 1 to 5 85 87.5 3 AEC (billion kWh) 110.5 221.0 24.6 5 to 20 89.25 91.25 12.5 20 to 50 92 93.75 35 In 1-25 HP range, AEC (arbitrary units) 16.00 50 to 100 10010 200 93.55 94

. 55 SRC 4 above 94.95 95.6 SRC5 above 75 150 AEC ((raction) 0.55 AEC(bil lion k W H) 196.41 Example of AEC talc used In this sheet If AEC is 196 at

. 91 efficiency , then at.93 efficiency, AEC is 196 •. 91/.93 = 191.7849462

Efficiency NEMA AEC NEMA Benefit ( billion HP AEC (arbitrary units) AEC (fraction) AEC (billion kWh) Efficiency Default Efficiency EPACT Premium AEC EPACT Premium kWh) Benefit Quads 1105 5 0.17 61.38 79 85 87.5 57.0 55.4 1.6 0.0179 51020 11 0.38 135.03 85.5 89.25 91.25 129.4 126.5 2.8 0.0312 20 to 50 1.5 0.05 18.41 88.5 92 93.75 17.7 17.4 0.3 0.0036 50 to 100 0

. 5 0.02 6.14 89.5 93.55 94.95 5.9 5.8 0.1 0.0010 100to200 0 0.00 0.00 90.5 94.55 95.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0000 Totals:

Finegrained data for 5-20 HP: HP 18 0.62 220.97 (from ADL-1999) Totals 210.0 205.1 4.9 0.0537

5 to 20 Lg unitary ADL 1999, p 413 16,040 167,113 15 3000 4.40E+10 0.0484 0.8500 0.8925 0.9125 4.19E+10 4.10E+10 5t020 Central Sta AHU ADL 1999, p 4-13 336,207 1,780,429 15 3000 4.58E+11 0.5038 0.8700 0.8925 0.9125 4.46E+11 4.37E+11 51020

Totals by HP class: Hydronic Boiler AOL 1999, p 4-16 15,186 350,000 23 1500 6.40E+10 0.0704 0.9000

Efficiency 0.8925

Efficiency 0.9125

Efficiency NEMA 6.45E+10 6.31E+10

AEC NEMA Benefit HP Description Source Annual sales Installed base Lifetime Hours AEC (kWh) AEC (quads) Default EPACT Premium AEC EPACT Premium Benefit (kWh) Quads Benefit 2010-2035 1 WS Medium Unifary ADL 1999, p4-13 169,118 1,780,161 15 2500 8.30E+10 0.0913 0.8000 0.8500 0.8750 7.81E+10 7.59E + 10 2.23E +09 0.0025 0.0430 5 to 20 Sum rows 51

- 53 Sum rows 51

- 53 367 , 433 2,297,542 5.66E+11 0.6226 0.8925 0.9125 5.53E+ll 5.41E+1 t 1.21E+10 0.0133 0.2333

TOTAL 536 , 551 4 , 077,703 6.49E + 11 0.7139 TOTAL : 1.44E+10 0.0158 0.2762 Electric Motors, 1-200HP, Commercial. This file contains calculations for TSO Table AS·8.

lnslalled base effitiency HP

20 50 100 200

Source for data below: Efficiency (ADL 1999) 75 B3 BB B9 90 91

ADL·1999, Figure ES·S, p. 

### x (Le. roman numeral ten) HPOass 1105 5to20 201050 50 to 100 100 to 200 Efficiency (class avg) 79 85.5 88.5 89.5 90.5

Note: "arbitrary units" as used below refer to the vertical grid spacing in AOL-1999 Rgure ES-S. For motor Inventory, one arbitrary unit corresponds to approximately 5.1 million motors. For AEC. one arbitrary unit corresponds to approximately 12.3 billion kWh.

Inventorylotal (million): 123

AEC (billion kWh) 356

Inventory {arbitrary unils)

AEC{arbltraryunits)

Inventory (fraction)

AEC (fraction)

Inventory (millions) AEC (billion kWh)

In 1-25 HP range, AEC (arbitrary units) AEC (fraction) AEC{billion kWH) 16.00 0.55 196.41

Example of AEC calc used in this sheet: If AEC is 196 at .91 efficiency, then at .93 efficiency, AEC is 196' .91/.93 = 191.7849462

HP AEC (arbitrary units) 1 t05 5 5to20 11 201050 1.5 5010100 0.5 10010200

Totals: 18

Finegrained data for 5·20 HP: HP 51020 Lgunitary 51020 Central Sta AHU 5t020 Hydronic Boiler

Totals by HP class:

HP DeSCription 1105 Medium Unitary 51020 Sum rows 51·53 < 1 HP 17 9

0.71 0.31

87.1 110.5

AEC (fraction) 0.17 0.38 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.62

ADL 1999, P 4-13 ADL 1999, P 4-13 ADL 1999,p 4-16

Source ADL 1999, P 4-13 Sum rows 51·53

TOTAl: 1-200 HP 7 1B

0.29 0.62

35.9 221.0

AEC (billion kWh) 61.38 135.03 18.41 6.14 0.00 220.97

16,040 336,207 15,186

Annual sales

169,118 367,433

536,551 >200 HP Total (arbitrary units) Approx.O 24 2 29

Approx.O

0.07

Approx.O

24.6

167,113 15 1,780,429 15 350,000 23

Installed base Ufelime

1,780,161 15 2,297,542

4,077,703 Efficiency NEMA Efficiency Default Efficiency EPAGr PremIum 79 85 87.5 85.5 89.25 91.25 88.5 92 93.75 89.5 93.55 94.95 90.5 94.55 95.6 (from ADL-1999)

3000 4.4DE+l0 0.0484 3000 4.58E+l1 0.5038 1500 6.4DE+l0 0.0704

Hours AEC(kWh) AEC (quads) 2500 8.30E+10 0.0913 5.66E+l1 0.6226

6.49E+l1 0.7139 HP EPAGr NEMAPREM 82.5 85.5**B7~** 89.5 20 91 93 50 93 94.5 100 94.1 95.4 200 95 95.8

Efficiency slarnlards for 4 pole (1800 APMS) OOP motors HP EPACT NEMA PAEM HP AVG 1105 85 87.5 51020 89.25 91.25 20 to 50 92 93.75 50 to 100 93.55 94.95 100 to 200 94.55 95.6 SAC 4 above SAC 5 above

AECNEMA AECEPACT Premium 57.0 55.4 129.4 126.5 17.7 17.4 5.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 Totals 210.0 205.1

0.8500 0.8925 0.9125 0.8700 0.8925 0.9125 0.9000 0.8925 0.9125

Efliciency Efficiency Efficiency NEMA

Defaull EPACT Premium 0.8000 0.8500 0.6750 0.8925 0.9125 3 12.5 35 75 150

4.19E+10 4.4SE+l1 6.45E+l0

AECEPACT

7.81E+l0 5.53E+l1 Benefit (bil!lOll kWh) Benefit Quads

1.6 0.0179 2.8 0.0312 0.3 0.0036 0.1 0.0010 0.0 0.0000 4.9 0.0537

4.10E+l0 4.37E+l1 6.31E+l0

AEC NEMA Benefit

Premium Benefit (kWh) Quads 7.S9E+10 2.23E+09 0.0025 5.41E+l1 1.21E+l0 0.0133

TOTAL: 1.44E+10 0.0158 Benefit 2010·2035 0.0430 0.2333

0.2762

# Cooking Products: Electric R anges

Efficiency Improvement Level baseline+design option combinations

-

Discount rate I 7% 

# Discount to year 2003

Product lifetime ( nearest full y ear) 19 NES (quads) 

# NPV (billion $) -$5.71 

# Cooking Products: Electric Ranges

1 

# Efficiency Improvement Level

# !b~S~li~~+designoPti~~~;rnbination~~ NES (quads) 

# 1.661

1.:1

# D:..:.;is:::.:c:.::o-=.un:...:.:t:..:.r;::.at~e __________ 

# .l..-_----=-7...:..::.J%1 NPV (billion $) 

# -$5.711

1.:1 

# D;,.;;is;,;:c;.;;,o.;;;.un;.;,;t;....::to;;....L.ye.;..;a;;,;..r

_____ -,

# ~20033

1 

# Product lifetime (nearest full year)

## Electric Range Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic linprov. UEC Base Total

Energy Effie

Iniprov. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings Base Operating

Cost Effic.

Intprov. Operating Cost Annual

Fuel Cost Savings 

### PVAnnual

Fuel Cost Savings PV

Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings Delta Unit

Price Total

Incremental Equip. Cost PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost PV

Cumulative Equip. Cost 

### Net

PV C..

.. ..... ive million million 

### kwh/ r kvh/ r cads cads quads quads billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ 2001 4.34 62.38 530 530 0.368 0. 368 S 2.88 S 2.88 ''. 2002 4.56 64.08 530 530 0.373 0.373 S 2.87 $ 2.87 2003 4.56 65.79 530 530 0.383 0.383 $ 2.96 S 2.96 '.. 2004 4.56 67.50 530 530 0.391 0.391 $ 2.99 S 2.99 2005 4.56 69.20 530 530 0.401 0.401 $ 3.02 S 3.02 2006 4.56 70.91 530 530 0.410 0.410 $ 3.06 $ 3.06 '.. 2007 4.56 72.62 530 530 0.420 0.420 $ 3.09 $ 3.09 2008 4.56 74.33 530 530 0.428 0.428 $ 3.14 S 3.14 2009 4.56 76.03 530 530 0.435 0.435 $ 3.22 S 322 2010 4.56 77.74 530 420 0.443 0.438 0.005 0.005 $ 3.28 $ 3.24 $ 0.04 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.73 -$0.73 -$0.71 2011 4.56 79.45 530 420 0.451 0.441 0.011 0.016 $ 3.34 $ 3.26 S 0.08 S 0.05 $ 0.07 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.68 -$1.42 -$1.35 2012 4.56 80.91 530 420 0.458 0.442 0.016 0.032 S 3.44 $ 3.32 $ 0.12 $ 0.07 $ 0.14 $ 258 -$1.18 40.64 -52.06 $1.92 2013 4.56 82.10 530 420 0.463 0.442 0.021 0.054 S 150 $ 3.34 S 0.16 $ 0.08 $ 0.22 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.60 -$2.65 -52.44 2014 4.56 83.34 530 420 0.468 0.441 0.027 0,080 $ 3.57 $ 3.37 $ 0.20 $ 0.10 $ 0.32 S 258 -$1.18 -50.56 -$3.21 -$2.90 2015 4.56 84.36 530 420 0.472 0.440 0.032 0.112 $ 3.63 S 3.38 $ 0.24 $ 0.11 $ 0.42 S 258 -81.18 $0.52 -53.74 -$3.31 2016 4.56 85.30 530 420 0.476 0.439 0.037 0.149 $ 3.68 $ 3.40 $ 0.29 $ 0.12 S 0.54 S 258 41.18 -50.49 -$4.22 -$3.68 2017 4.56 85.87 530 420 0.477 0.435 0.042 0.191 $ 3.69 $ 3.36 $ 0.33 $ 0.13 $ 0.67 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.46 -$4.68 -54.01 2018 4.56 86.15 530 420 0.477 0.430 0.047 0.238 $ 3.71 $ 3.34 $ 0.37 $ 0.13 $ 0.80 $ 258 41.18 -$0.43 -$5.11 -$4.30 2019 4.56 86.38 530 420 0.477 0.425 0.052 0.290 $ 3.70 $ 3.30 S 0.41 $ 0.14 $ 0.94 $ 258 -51.18 -$0.40 -$5.50 -$4.57 2020 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.477 0.419 0.057 0.348 $ 3.72 S 3.27 $ 0.45 $ 0.14 $ 1.08 $ 258 -$1.18 -50.37 -$5.88 -$4.80 2021 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.475 0.413 0.062 0.410 $ 3.74 S 3.25 $ 0.49 $ 0.14 $ 1.22 $ 258 -$1.18 -50.35 -$6.22 -$5.00 2022 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.474 0.407 0.067 0.477 $ 3.73 $ 3.20 $ 0.53 $ 0.15 S 1.37 $ 258 41.18 -$0.33 -$6.55 -55.18 2023 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.473 0.401 0.072 0.550 $ 3.71 S 3.15 $ 0.57 $ 0.15 $ 1.52 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.30 -$6.85 -$5.33 2024 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.472 0.395 0.077 0.627 $ 3.74 $ 3.13 $ 0.61 S 0.15 $ 1.67 $ 258 -$1.18 40.28 -57.14 -55.47 2025 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.471 0.389 0.082 0.709 $ 3.74 $ 3.09 S 0.65 S 0.15 $ 1.81 $ 258 -$1.18 -80.27 -57.40 -$5.59 2026 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.470 0.382 0.087 0.796 $ 3.74 S 3.05 $ 0.70 S 0.15 $ 1.96 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.25 -$7.65 -$5.69 2027 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.468 0.376 0.092 0.888 S 3.74 $ 3.01 $ 0.74 8 0.15 $ 2.11 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.23 -$7.88 45.78 2028 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.467 0.370 0.097 0.985 S 3.75 $ 2.97 $ 0.78 $ 0.14 $ 2.25 S 258 -$1.16 -$0.22 -$8.10 45.85 2029 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.466 0.369 0.097 1.082 S 3.75 $ 2.97 $ 0.78 S 0.13 $ 2.38 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.20 -$8.30 -$5.92 2030 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.465 0.368 0.096 1.179 $ 3.75 $ 2.97 S 0.78 8 0.13 $ 2.51 $ 258 -$1.18 40.19 48.49 45.98 2031 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.463 0.367 0.096 1.275 S 3.76 $ 2.98 8 0.78 5 0.12 S 2.63 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.18 -$8.67 -$6.04 2032 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.462 0.366 0.096 1.371 S 3.76 $ 2.98 S 0.78 $ 0.11 $ 2.74 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.17 -$8.83 -$6.10 2033 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.461 0.365 0.096 1.466 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.10 $ 2.84 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.15 -$8.99 -$6.15 2034 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.460 0.364 0.095 1.562 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.10 S 2.93 S 258 -51.18 -$0.14 -$9.13 -$6.20 2035 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.459 0.363 0.095 1.657 $ 3.77 $ 2.99 $ 0.78 $ 0.09 $ 3.02 S 258 -$1.18 -$0.13 -5927 -$6.24 2036 0 82.04 530 420 0.433 0.343 0.090 1.747 $ 3.57 $ 2.83 $ 0.74 $ 0.08 $ 3.10 -59.27 -56.16 2037 0 77.49 530 420 0.408 0.323 0.085 1.832 S 3.38 $ 2.67 $ 0.70 $ 0.07 $ 3.17 -$9.27 -56.09 2038 0 72.93 530 420 0.383 0.304 0.080 1.911 $ 3.18 $ 2.52 $ 0.66 $ 0.06 $ 3.24 -$9.27 -$6.03 2039 0 68.37 530 420 0.358 0.284 0.074 1.985 $ 2.98 $ 2.36 $ 0.62 $ 0.05 $ 3.29 -59.27 -85.98 2040 0 63.81 530 420 0.333 0.264 0.069 2.055 $ 2.79 S 2.21 $ 0.58 $ 0.05 $ 3.34 49.27 $5.93 2041 0 59.25 530 420 0.309 0.245 0.064 2.119 $ 2.59 $ 2.05 $ 0.54 $ 0.04 $ 3.38 -5927 -55.89 2042 0 54.70 530 420 0.284 0.225 0.059 2.178 $ 2.39 $ 1.90 $ 0.50 $ 0.04 $ 3.41 -89.27 -$5.85 2043 0 50.14 530 420 0.260 0.206 0.054 2232 $ 2.19 S 1.74 S 0.46 $ 0.03 $ 3.44 -$9.27 -$5.82 2044 0 45.58 530 420 0.236 0.187 0.049 2,281 $ 2.00 S 1.58 $ 0.41 S 0.03 S 3.47 -$9.27 -$5.80 2045 0 41.02 530 420 0.212 0.168 0.044 2.325 $ 1.80 $ 1.42 $ 0.37 $ 0.02 S 3.49 -59.27 -$5.78 2046 0 36.46 530 420 0.188 0.149 0.039 2.364 $ 1.60 S 1.27 $ 0.33 $ 0.02 $ 3.51 -$9.27 -55.76 2047 0 31.91 530 420 0.164 0.130 0.034 2.398 $ 1.40 $ 1.11 $ 0.29 $ 0.01 $ 3.52 -$9.27 -55.74 2048 0 27.35 530 420 0.140 0.111 0.029 2.427 $ 1.20 S 0.95 $ 0.25 $ 0.01 $ 3.54 -$9.27 -$5.73 2049 0 22.79 530 420 0.116 0.092 0.024 2.451 $ 1.00 $ 0.79 $ 0.21 $ 0.01 $ 3.55 -$9.27 -$5.72 2050 0 18.23 530 420 0,093 0,074 0.019 2.470 $ 0.80 $ 0.64 S 0.17 $ 0.01 $ 3.55 -8927 -55.71 2051 0 13.67 530 420 0.069 0.055 0.014 2.485 $ 0.60 $ 0.48 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 S 3.56 -89.27 -$5.71 2052 0 9.12 530 420 0.046 0.037 0.010 2.494 S 0.40 1 0.32 $ 0.08 $ 0.00 $ 3.56 -$9.27 -$5.71 2053 0 4.56 530 420 0.023 0.018 0.005 2.499 S 0.20 $ 0.16 S 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 3.56 4927 -$5.71 2054 0 0.00 530 420 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.499 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3.56 -59.27 45.71 2055 0 0.00 530 420 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.499 $ - $ - $ $ $ 156 49.27 -$5.71 

## Electric Range Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie. PV Effie 

## lmprov. Allnllal 

## Cumulative Improv. Anllual PVAnlllla[ 

## Cumulative Total PVTotal PV Net New Surviving lmprov. 

### Base Total Total Energy EIJergy 

### Base Operating Operating 

### Fuel Cost Fllel Cost 

### Fliel Cost 

### Delta Unit l1!cremen(al 

### Incremental Cumulative Cumulative Year 

### Shipment Units 

### Base UEC 

### UEC Energy 

### Energy 

### Savings Savings 

### Cost Cost Savings Savings Savings 

### Price Equip. Cost Equip Cost Equip. Cost 

### PV million million 

### kwh;" kwhlvr 

### uads flads 

### llads 

### uads billion 

### $ billion $ 

### billion $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ $ billion 

### $ billioll 

### $ billioll 

### $ 

### billion $ 2001 4.34 62.38 530 530 0.368 0.368 $ 2.88 

### S 2.88 2002 4.56 64.08 530 530 0.373 0.373 

### S 2.87 $ 2.87 

### 2003 4.56 65.79 530 530 0.383 0.383 $ 2.96 

### S 2.96 2004 4.56 67.50 530 530 0.391 0.391 $ 2.99 $ 2.99 2005 4.56 69.20 530 530 0.401 0.401 $ 3.02 $ 3.02 2006 4.56 70.91 530 530 0.410 0.410 $ 3.06 $ 3.06 

### 2007 4.56 72.62 530 530 

### 0.420 0.420 $ 3.09 $ 3.09 2008 4.56 74.33 530 530 0.428 0.428 $ 3.14 $ 3.14 2009 4.56 76.03 530 530 0.435 0.435 $ 3.22 $ 3.22 2010 4.56 77.74 530 420 0.443 0.438 0.005 0.005 $ 3.28 $ 3.24 $ 0.04 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.73 ·$0.73 -$0.71 2011 4.56 79.45 530 420 0.451 0.441 0.011 0.016 $ 3.34 $ 3.26 $ 0.08 $ 0.05 $ 0.07 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.68 -SI.42 -$1.35 2012 4.56 80.91 530 420 0.458 0.442 0.016 0.032 S 3.44 $ 3.32 $ 0.12 $ 0.07 $ 0.14 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.64 -$2.06 -$1.92 2013 4.56 82.10 530 420 0.463 0.442 0.021 0.054 $ 3.50 $ 3.34 $ 0.16 $ 0.08 $ 0.22 $ 258 -$1.18 ·$0.60 -$2.65 -$2.44 2014 4.56 83.34 530 420 0.468 0.441 0.027 0.080 $ 3.57 $ 3.37 $ 0.20 $ 0.10 $ 0.32 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.56 -$3.21 -$2.90 2015 4.56 84.36 530 420 0.472 0.440 0.032 0.112 $ 3.63 $ 3.38 $ 0.24 $ 0.11 $ 0.42 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.52 ·$3.74 -$3.31 2016 4.56 85.30 530 420 0.476 0.439 0.037 0.149 $ 3.68 

### S 3.40 $ 0.29 $ 0.12 $ 0.54 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.49 -$4.22 ·$3.68 2017 4.56 85.87 530 420 0.477 0.435 0.042 0.191 $ 3.69 $ 3.36 $ 0.33 $ 0.13 

### $ 0.67 $ 258 -S1.18 -$0.46 -$4.68 -$4.01 2018 4.56 86.15 530 420 0.477 0.430 0.047 0.238 $ 3.71 $ 3.34 $ 0.37 $ 0.13 $ 0.80 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.43 -$5.11 -$4.30 2019 4.56 86.38 530 420 0.477 0.425 0.052 0.290 $ 3.70 $ 3.30 $ 0.41 $ 0.14 

### $ 0.94 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.40 -$5.50 -$4.57 2020 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.477 0.419 0.057 0.348 $ 3.72 $ 3.27 $ 0.45 $ 0.14 $ 1.08 $ 258 ·$1.18 -$0.37 -$5.88 -$4.80 2021 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.475 0.413 0.062 0.410 $ 3.74 $ 3.25 $ 0.49 $ 0.14 $ 1.22 

### S 258 ·$1.18 -$0.35 -$6.22 -$5.00 2022 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.474 0.407 0.067 0.477 $ 3.73 $ 3.20 $ 0.53 $ 0.15 $ 1.37 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.33 -$6.55 -$5.18 2023 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.473 0.401 0.072 0.550 $ 3.71 $ 3.15 $ 0.57 $ 0.15 $ 1.52 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.30 -$6.85 ·$5.33 2024 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.472 0.395 0.077 0.627 $ 3.74 $ 3.13 $ 0.61 $ 0.15 $ 1.67 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.28 -$7.14 -$5.47 2025 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.471 0.389 0.082 0.709 $ 3.74 $ 3.09 $ 0.65 $ 0.15 $ 1.81 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.27 -$7.40 -$5.59 2026 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.470 0.382 0.087 0.796 $ 3.74 $ 3.05 $ 0.70 $ 0.15 $ 1.96 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.25 -$7.65 ·$5.69 2027 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.468 0.376 0.092 0.888 $ 3.74 $ 3.01 $ 0.74 $ 0.15 $ 2.11 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.23 -$7.88 -$5.78 2028 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.467 0.370 0.097 0.985 $ 3.75 $ 2.97 $ 0.78 $ 0.14 $ 2.25 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0-22 -$8.10 -$5.85 2029 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.466 0.369 0.097 1.082 $ 3.75 $ 2.97 $ 0.78 $ 0.13 $ 2.38 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.20 -$8.30 -$5.92 2030 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.465 0.368 0.096 1.179 $ 3.75 $ 2.97 $ 0.78 $ 0.13 $ 2.51 $ 258 ·$1.18 ·$0.19 -$8.49 -$5.98 2031 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.463 0.367 0.096 1.275 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.12 $ 2.63 $ 258 -$1.18 ·$0.18 ·$8.67 -$6.04 2032 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.462 0.366 0.096 1.371 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.11 $ 2.74 $ 258 ·$1.18 -$0.17 -$8.83 -$6.10 2033 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.461 0.365 0.096 1.466 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.10 $ 2.84 $ 258 -$1.18 -$0.15 -$8.99 -$6.15 2034 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.460 0.364 0.095 1.562 $ 3.76 $ 2.98 $ 0.78 $ 0.10 $ 2.93 $ 258 -S1.18 -$0.14 -$9.13 -$6.20 2035 4.56 86.60 530 420 0.459 0.363 0.095 1.657 $ 3.77 $ 2.99 $ 0.78 $ 0.09 $ 3.02 $ 258 ·$1.18 -$0.13 -$9.27 -$6.24 2036 0 82.04 530 420 0.433 0.343 0.090 1.747 $ 3.57 $ 2.83 $ 0.74 $ 0.08 $ 3.10 -$9.27 -$6.16 2037 0 77.49 530 420 0.408 0.323 0.085 1.832 $ 3.38 $ 2.67 $ 0.70 $ 0.07 $ 3.17 -$9.27 -$6.09 2038 0 72.93 530 420 0.383 0.304 0.080 1.911 $ 3.18 $ 2.52 $ 0.66 $ 0.06 $ 3.24 -$9.27 -$6.03 2039 0 68.37 530 420 0.358 0.284 0.074 1.985 $ 2.98 $ 2.36 $ 0.62 $ 0.05 $ 3.29 -$9.27 -$5.98 2040 0 63.81 530 420 0.333 0.264 0.069 2.055 $ 2.79 $ 2.21 $ 0.58 $ 0.05 $ 3.34 -$9.27 ·$5.93 2041 0 59.25 530 420 0.309 0.245 0.064 2.119 $ 2.59 $ 2.05 $ 0.54 $ 0.04 $ 3.38 -$9.27 -$5.89 2042 0 54.70 530 420 0.284 0.225 0.059 2.178 $ 2.39 $ 1.90 $ 0.50 $ 0.04 $ 3.41 -$9.27 -$5.85 2043 0 50.14 530 420 0.260 0.206 0.054 2.232 $ 2.19 $ 1.74 $ 0.46 $ 0.03 $ 3.44 -$9.27 -$5.82 2044 0 45.58 530 420 0.236 0.187 0.049 2.281 $ 2.00 $ 1.58 $ 0.41 $ 0.03 $ 3.47 -$9.27 -$5.80 2045 0 41.02 530 420 0.212 0.168 0.044 2.325 $ 1.80 $ 1.42 $ 0.37 $ 0.02 $ 3.49 -$9.27 -$5.78 2046 0 36.46 530 420 0.188 0.149 0.039 2.364 $ 1.60 $ 1.27 $ 0.33 $ 0.02 $ 3.51 -$9.27 -$5.76 2047 0 31.91 530 420 0.164 0.130 0.034 2.398 $ 1.40 $ 1.11 $ 0.29 $ 0.01 $ 3.52 -59.27 -$5.74 2048 0 27.35 530 420 0.140 0.111 0.029 2.427 $ 1.20 $ 0.95 $ 0.25 $ 

# om $ 3.54 -$9.27 -$5.73 2049 0 22.79 530 420 0.116 0.092 0.024 2.451 $ 1.00 $ 0.79 $ 0.21 $ 0.01 $ 3.55 -$9.27 -$5.72 2050 0 18.23 530 420 0.093 0.074 0.019 2.470 $ 0.80 $ 0.64 

### S 0.17 $ 0.01 $ 3.55 -$9.27 -$5.71 2051 0 13.67 530 420 0.069 0.055 0.014 2.485 $ 0.60 $ 0.48 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 $ 3.56 -$9.27 -$5.71 2052 0 9.12 530 420 0.046 0.037 0.010 2.494 $ 0.40 $ 0.32 $ 0.08 $ 0.00 $ 3.56 -$9.27 -$5.71 2053 0 4.56 530 420 0.023 0.018 0.005 2.499 $ 0.20 $ 0.16 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 3.56 -$9.27 -$5.71 2054 0 0.00 530 420 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.499 $ $ $ $ $ 3.56 -$9,27 -$5.71 2055 0 0.00 530 420 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.499 $ $ $ $ $ 3.56 -$9.27 -$5.71

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 2.851 Historical data 1983 2.851 Projected forward or back 1984 2.851' 1985 2.851 1986 2.851 1987 2.85 "i 1988 2.851 1989 2.851 1990 2.851 1991 2.851 1992 2.851 1993 3.090 1994 3.368 1995 3.319 1996 3.541 1997 3.623 1998 3.987 1999 4.278 2000 4.320 2001 4.340 2002 4.558 2003 4.558 2004 4.558 2005 4.558 2006 4.558 2007 4.558 2008 4.558 2009 4.558 2010 4.558 2011 4.558 2012 4.558 2013 4.558 2014 4.558 2015 4.558' 2016 4.558 2017 4.558: 2018 4.558 2019 4.558 2020 4.558 2021 4.558 2022 4.558 2023 4.558 2024 4.558 2025 4.558 2026 4.558 2027 4.558 2028 4.558 2029 4.558 2030 4.558 2031 4.558 2032 4.558 2033 4.558 2034 4.558 2035 4.558 

# Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical + 

# Year ected 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

# Historical data Projected forward or back

# Efficiency Level UEC (kwh/yr) Unit Price

Base 530.4 $ 508 Base + design option combinations 420.3 $ 766 Efficiency Level Base Base 

# + design option combinations UEC (kwh/yr) Unit Price 

# 530.4 

# $ 508 420.3 $ 

# 766

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline Percent of Total Base Equip Dsgn Option Dsgn Option Total Equip UEC Product Class Shi p ments Price Price % Incr Price Cookin g EHC EF kWh! r Source Elec Oven non-Self Cleaning $399 $0 - $399 12.2% 10.7% 274.9 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.11; Price : 1996 TSD, Table 4.4 Elec Oven Self C1-in $630 $ 0 $630 13.8% 9.6% 303.7 UEC: 1996 DOE T5D, Table 1.12; Price : 1996 TSD Table 4.5 Elec Coil Cooktop 85.0% $179 $0 - $179 73.7% 73.7% 234.7 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1. 6; Price : 1996 TSD, Table 4.1 Elec Smooth Cookiop 15.0% $219 $0 - $219 74.2% 74.2% 233.4 UEC: 1996 DOE TSO, Table 1.7; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.2 Elec Cooktop Weig

hted $185 $ D $185 73.8% 73.8% 234.5 Elec Range non

- Self Cleaning 27.0% $584 $0 - $584 509.4 Cnokfop 1- Oven Elec Range Self Cleaning 73.0% $815 $0 $815 538.2 CooMOp + Oven Weighted-Average $ 508 5508 530:4 Price : 2003 ARAM Fact Book

Baseline + Design Option Combinations Source : Percent of Total Shipments; 1997 DOE Supplemental Analys Tables 3.6 and 3.7

Percent of Total Bose Equip Dsgn Option Dsgn Option Total Equip UEC Product Class Shi p ments Price Price %Incr Price Cookin g Effo y EF kW r Desi g n O p tion Combination Source Elec Oven non-Sell Cleaning $399 $314 78.7% $713 22. 8% 18.0 % 162.4 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.11; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.4 Elec Oven Self Cleaning $630 $359 57.0% $989 24.0% 13.7% 213.7 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSD Table 1.12; Price : 1996 TSD, Table 4.5 Elec Coil Cookfop 85.0% $179 $12 6.7% $191 77.7% 77.7% 222. 9 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.6; Price : 1996 TSD, Table 4.1 Elec Smooth Cooktop 15.0% $219 $133 60.8% $352 84.0% 84.0% 206.4 Induction Element UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.7; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.2 Elec CaaMO Wei g hted $ 185 $30 16.3% $215 78.6% 78.6% 220.4 Max Tech Sloe Range non

- Self Cleaning 27.0% $584 $344 58. 9% $928 382 .8 Caoktop +Oven (Glo-bar ignition) Elec Range Self Cleaning 73.0% $815 $389 47.8% $1,204 434.1 Cookiop + Oven Weighted

- Average $508 50.8% 5766 420.3 Price : 2003 AHAM Fact Book plus percent increase due to design options

Electric Range Gas Range Microwave Oven AHAM Fact Book 2003 ( 2002 prices ) Table 15 $508 $497 $145 

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline

!=elfClean,n g 

### Oven Sell Cleaning Coil Cooktop Elec Smooth Cooktop Bee Cooktoo Weiahted E/ec Range non-Self Cleaning EJee Range Self Cleaning Weighted-Average



### Baseline 

### + Design Option Combinations

Product Class Elec Oven non-Self Cleaning Elec Oven Self CleaninQ Elec Coil Cooktop Elec Smooth Cooktop £Iec CookfOp Weighted EJee Range non-Self CleanIng Elec Range Self Cleaning Weighted-Average

Electric Range Gas Range Microwave Oven Percent of Total Base Equip Dsg" Option Dsgn Option Total Equip Shipments Price Price %lner Price Cookina Effcv $399 $0 $399 12.2% $630 $0 

### $630 13.8% 85.0% $179 $0 $179 73.7% 15.0% $219 $0 $219 74.2% $185 $0 $185 73.8% 27.0% $584 $0 $58' 73.0% $815 $0 $815 $508 $508 Source. Percent of Total ShIpments. 1997 DOE Supplemental AnalysIs, Tables 3.6 and 3.7

Percent of Total Base Equip Dsgn Option

Shipments Price Price $399 $31' $630 $359 85.0% $179 $12 15.0% $219 $133 $185 $30 27.0% $584 $344 73.0% $815 $389 $508

AHAMFactBook20032002 rices Table15 $508 $497 $145 Dsgn Option Total Equip %Incr Price Cooking Effey

78.7% $713 22.8% 57.0% $989 24.0% 6.7% $191 77.7% 60.8% $352 84.0% 16.3% $215 78.6% 58.9% $928 47.8% $1,204 50.8% $766 UEC EF kWfI}r Source 10.7% 274.9 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.11; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4,4 9.6% 303.7 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.12: Price: 1996T90 Table4.5 73.7% 234.7 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.6: Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.1 74.2% 233.4 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD. Table 1.7; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.2 73.B"/0 234.5 509.4 Cooktop 

### + Oven 538,2 Cooktop 

### + Oven 530.4 Price: 2003 AHAM Fact Book

UEC EF kWh/yr Design Option Combination Source 18.0% 162.4 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSO. Table 1.11: Price: 1996 TSO. Table 4.4 13.7% 213.7 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSD Table 1.12; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.5 77.7% 222.9 Max Tech UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.6; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.1 84.0% 206.4 Induction Elemenl UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.7; Price: 1996 TSD, Table 4.2 78.6% 220.4 

### Max Tech 382.8 Cooktop + Oven (Glo·bar ignition) 434.1 Cooktop + Oven 420.3 Price: 2003 AHAM Fact Book plus percent increase due to design options

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh 2001 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 10972 2004 10924 2005 10913 2006 10903 2007 10894 2008 10868 2009 10785 2010 10749 2011 10712 2012 10679 2013 10635 2014 10584 2015 10542 2016 10515 2017 10483 2018 10436 2019 10408 2020 10376 2021 10345 2022 10322 2023 10298 2024 10275 2025 10252 2026, 10223 2027 10194 2028 10166 2029 10139 2030' 10113 2031' 10087 2032 10061 2033' 10035 2034 10010 2035 9983 2036 9957 2037 9931 2038 9905 2039 9879 2040 9853 2041 9828: 2042 9802', 2043, 9777'. 2044', 9751' 2045', 9726 : 20461 9700 2047 9675 2048 9650 2049 9625 2050 9600 2051 9575 2052 9550 2053 9525 2054 9500 2055 9475 

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh 

# 20.0.1 11126 calculated from AEO 

# 20.0.4 20.0.2 10986 ".

.. .. ',

.. based on extrapolation of trend from 

# 20.15-20.25 20.0.3 10.972 20.0.4 10.924 20.0.5 10.913 20.0.6 10.90.3 20.0.7 1 Cl894 20.0.8 10.868 20.0.9 10.78.5 20.10. 10.749 20.11 10.712 20.12 10.679 20.13 10.635 20.14 10.584 20.15 1 o.S4-2 20.16 10515 20.17 10.483 20.18 '10.436 20.19 10.40.8 20.20. 1()376 20.21 10.345 20.22 t0322 20.23 10.298 20.24 10.275 1

# Fuel Price

Elec cent/kWh 2001 8.71 from AEO 2004 2002 8.44 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 8.49 2004 8.34 2005 823 2006 8.13 2007 0.01 2008 7.98 2009 7.99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8.03 2014 8.07 2015 8.11 2016 8.14 2017 8.10 2018 8.12 2019 8.08 2020 8.10 2021 8.14 2022 8.13 2023 8.09 2024 8.14 2025 8.15 2026 8.15 2027 8.15 2028 9.16 2029 8.16 2030 8.17 2031 8.18 2032 8.18 2033 8.19 2034 8.20 2035 8.20 2036 8.21 2037 8.21 2038 8.22 2039 9.23 2040 8.23 2041 8.24 2042 9.24 2043 8.25 2044 9.26 2045 8.26 2046 8.27 2047 838 2048 &28 2049 8.29 2050 8.30 2051 9.30 2052 8.31 2053 8.31 2054 8.32 2055 8.33



# Page 7 Fuel Price

Elec centlkWh 

# 2001 8.71 

# from AEO 2004 2002 8.44**'._L.'.~C._".~'** 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 8.49 2004 8.34 2005 8.23 2006 8.13 2007 8.01 2008 7.98 2009 7:99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8;03 2014 8m 2015 8;11 2016 8:14 2017 8,10 2018 8.12 2019 8.08 2020 8.10 2021 8.i4. 2022 8.13 2023 8,09 2024 8;14 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055



# Page 7

# Cooking Products : Gas R anges

Efficiency Improvement Level ' baseline+electronic ignition

Discount rate 

# I

Discount to year 2003 - Product lifetime (to nearest year) 19 

# NES (quads) NPV (billion $) $0.57 

# Cooking Products: Gas Ranges

1 

# Efficiency Improvement Level 

# f baseline+electronic ignition

1 

# Discount rate 

# 1 Discount to year 

# 20633 

# 1 Product lifetime (to nearest year) 

# 191**~.** 

# :!J NES (quads)

NPV (billion 

# $) 0.441

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# Shipments , millions of units Historical +Year Projected1982 2.201 Historical Data 1983 2.201 back and forward projections 1984 2.201 1985 2.201 1986 2.201 1987 2.201 1988 2.201 1989 2.201 1990 2.201 1991 2.201 1992 2.201 1993 2.321 1994 2.522 1995 2.475 1996 2.438 1997 2.464 1998 2.614 1999 2.770 2000 2.799 2001 2.652 2002 2.852 2003 2.852 2004 2.852 2005 2.852 2006 2.852 2007 2.852 2008 2.852 2009 2.852 2010 2.852 2011 2.852 2012 2.852 2013 2.852 2014 2.852 2015 2.852 2016 2.852 2017 2.852 2018 2.852 2019 2.852 2020 2.852 2021 2.852 2022 2.852 2023 2.852 2024 2.852 2025 2.852' 2026 2.852 2027 2.852: 2028 2.8521 2029 2.852 2030 2.852 2031 2.852 2032 2.852 2033 2.852 2034 2.852 2035 2.852' 

# Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical + 

# Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

# Historical Data

# f;~~~~f~~~ back and forward projections

# UEC gas UEC elec UEC gas, source UEC elec,

source Annual

Total UEC , Maintenance Efficiency Level (MMBTU/yr) (kWh/yr) Unit Price MMBTU MMBTU source MMBTU Cost Base 3 .2 33.4 $ 520 3.5 0.36 3.9 $6.34 Baseline +Electronic Ignition 2.8 33.4 $ 525 3.0 0.36 3.4 $7.25 

# Baseline +Design Option Combinations 2.4 53.4 $ 707 2.6 0.57 3.2 $7.25 UEC gas, UEC elec, Annual UEC gas UEC elec source source Total UEC, Maintenance Efficiency Level (MMBTU/yr) (kWh/yr) Unit Price MMBTU MMBTU source MMBTU Cost Base 

# 3.2 33.4 $ 520 3.5 0.36 3.9 $6.34 Baseline+Electronic Ignition 

# 2.8 33.4 $ 525 3.0 0.36 3.4 $7.25 Baseline+Design Option Combinations 

# 2.4 53.4 $ 707 2.6 0.57 3.2 $7.25Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline Percent alTatal Be,e Equip Dg. Option Dean Option Total Equip Installation An nual MOnt UEC P1lot DEC Product Clear Shi moots Price Price % Mcr Price Price Cast Co0Wn EBC EF MMB k MMB r Source Gas 0001000-S00eaning S470 s0 0.0% S479 $0 50 5.9% 3.0% 3.0 0.0 1.5 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.13; Priac: 199] TSO, Ta08422 Gas Oven SellCieanln0 $829 $0 010% $829 $0 $0 7.1% 5A% 1.4 66.7 0.0 UM: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.14; Price: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 4.5 6.SCabkl $219 s0 00% $219 $0 s0 319% 15.6% 3A 0.0 2.1 UEC: 1996 DOE TED, Table 1.8: Price: 1997 TED, Table 4.13 Gas Range rmn -Sell Clean wf Pilot 25.0% $698 50 0.0% $698 $0 $0 6A 0.0 3.5 COOkbp + Oven Gas Ranenan -SellClean wfo Pilot 75.0% 5698 S37 5.3% $735 $18 $7 2.8 0.0 0.0 C0pkbp+OvrO Gas Range Seil Cle9nwf Pilot 0.0% $1,048 S0 0.0% $1,048 S0 $7 4.8 66.7 1.5 G. Ran eSelt Clean wfo Pilot 100.0% $1,048 S26 2.5% 51,0]4 50 $7 2.8 66.7 0.0 G. Range non -Sell Clean 0018004 50.0% 5696 528 3.9% 5]26 $14 55 3.7 0.0 0.9 Gaz Rarge Set Cleaning 50.0% 51.048 526 2.5% 51074 $0 57 2.8 661 0.0 Caokbp+oven Weighted

- Average 5497 527 02• sstil 183' '. 3 $4. Price : 2003ARAMFacl BOOk

Basellno+ Etectnania Ign1UOn Source : Peecenl of Tall S0lpments : 1997 DOE Supplemental 4)10,1:, lanes) and 4.1.

Percent olTotel Bea, Equip Dean Opllen D.G. Option Total Equip Inatalletlen Annual Meant UEC Pilot DEC Pratluct Cl... Shl moots Prke Pdce %Mcr Price Pdce Cost Cookin EHc EF MMB k MMB r Deal n0 tlon C,mbinatlon Source as Oven non-Soil Cleaning $4]9 $21 5.7% $50] 318 $] 5.8% 5.8% 1.5 0.0 0.0 Electronic 19119n Design UEC: 1996 DOE T5D. Table1.13; Design Prlcc: 19510000vppiemenlel. Table 422 Gaz OVen G .Cleaning 5829 50 0.0% 5829 50 $0 7.1% 5.4% 1.4 66.] 0.0

- No Design CM1anpe bas 0000 5219 926 11.9x° 5245 518 $7 39.9% 39.9% 1.3 0.0 0.0 Electronic nltlon Davlgn UEC: 1996000 TSD.109181.9:098101 Price: 1997DOESOp menus. Table 4.13 Gas Ranee non-Sell Cleaning 50.0% $698 537 5.31 $735 $18 97 2.8 0.0 0.0 DOOk1Op+Oven Gas Range Sell Cleaning 50.0% 51.048 526 2.5% 5+074 SO S7 2.8 66.] 0.0 Cool290+Dven Welghled-AVereae 5497 631 3 L % - Baseline. Design Opgon CambineOcns

Pratluct Close Percent cITatel SM1I m Dose Equip Dagn OpOOn Oe9n Op0en Total Equip Metalktlan

Price Price %iner Price Prka Annual Maint Cast Caakln EHc EF DEC al l k Pilot UEC

MMB r Desi n0 tlon COmbina504 Seuree Gas(Ncc non-Self Cleaning 5479 $173 36.0% $652 $18 80 6.5% 6.5% 1.2 37.1 0.0 Max Tech lGlo'barlgnilion) .9%OOETSD, Table 1.13 G. Oven SallCleanin0 5829 5204 24.6% $1,033 $0 $0 9.4% 6.5% 1.1 69.7 0.0 Max Tech 1996 DOE T5D. Table 1.14 Ga s Cook $2 19 177 35.3% $296 118 S] 420% 420% 1.3 0 00 Max Tech 199600E 008, Table 1.8 Gas Rangenca-ScoCleaninp 50.0% 5698 53]7 539% $1,075 818 $ ] 2S 37.1 0.0 DOOktcp+0ven (Glo-barignieon) Gas RangeSalCleening Weighted

- Average 50.0% 51,048 $a47 5281

$329 26.8%

40 .4 S 329

55831 _ $0_

5^. _ ,_ _ 1]

57.25' 24 ! 69.7

Sa:4 00 COOkbp+Oven

ARAM Fact honk 2803 I. pricer T.N. 15 Electrk Renee 5508 Gas Bang, $497 Microwave Oven 1145 Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline

PreducrCl1lSS GasOvennOfJ·SellCleanjng Gas Oven Self CleanlnO GasCOOIIIOP Gas Range non-Self Clean wI Pilot Gas Ran e non·Sell Clean w/o Pilot Gas Range Sell Clean wI Pilot Gas Ran e Sell Crean wlo Pilot Gas Range non-Sell Clean weighled Gas Range Self Cleaning Weighted-Average

Baseline + Electronic IgnlUon

ProductCllIGs Gas Oven non,SellCleaning Gas Oven Self Cleaning GasCC!Oktoo Gas Range non-Self Cleaniog Gas Range Sell Cleaning Welghtet!-Average

Baseline + Design Option Combinations

ProduclClasG Gas Oven non-Self Cleaning Gas Oven SellCleaning GasCooktop Gas Range non·SellCleaning Gas Range Sell Cleaning Welghted-AVtlrage

EiectricRange GasRllnge Microwave Oven PercentofTettll Shl ments

25.0% 75.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% BIIse Equip Dsgn Oplh:m Dsgn Opth:m Tottll Equip Instoliotlon Annual Molnt Price Price % Incr Price Price Cost

$479 SO 0.0% $479 $0 5829 50 0.0% 5829 $0 5219 SO 0.0% 5219 SO S698 $0 0.0% $698 $0 5698 S37 5.3% S735 S18 S1.048 50 0.0% S1,048 50 S1,048 $26 2.5% S1,074 SO 5698 528 3.9% 5726 514 S1.048 526 2.5% Sl.074 SO S497 $27 $513 $7 

# " Cooking Effcy 50 5.9% 50 7.1% SO 39.9% 

## so S7 S7 S7 S5 S7

Source: Pen:ent olTotal Shipments: 1997 DOE Supplemental Analysis, Tables 3.4 and 3.7

PercentofTotDi

Shl menta

50.0% 50.0%

Percent of Total

Shl ments

50.0% 50.0% $479 $2B 5.7% $507 SIB :i71 5.8% 5829 SO 0.0% 5829 SO 50 7.1% $219 526 11.9% $245 $16 39.S%

$497 $31

BIIse Equip Dsgn Option Dsgn Option Total Equip installation Annual Malnt

Price Price 'Molncr Price Prlca Cost Cookln Effc

5479 5173 36.0% 5652 S18 50 6.5% $829 S204 24.6% 51,033 $0 50 9.4% 5219 

### sn 35.3% $296 $18 57 42.0% $698 $377 53.9% 51,075 518 57 S1,048 $281 26.8% 51.329 SO 57 $'197 $329 40.'1, 

# '59 

# "'"

AHAM Fact Book 2003 2002 rices Table 15 $508 S497 $145 UEC PliotUEC EF MMBlulyr kVi1Wr MMBllJttr Source 3.0% 3.0 0.0 1.5 UEC:199600ETSD,Table1.13;Prlce:1997TSD,Table4.22 5.4% 1.4 66.7 0.0 UEC: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 1.14; Price: 1996 DOE TSD, Table 4.5 15.6% 3.4 0.0 2.1 UEC: 1996 ODE TSO, Table 1.8: PrIce; 1997TSD,Table4.13 6.4 0.0 3.5 CooklOp + Oven 2.8 0.0 0.0 Cooktop + Oven 4.8 2.8 '.7 2.8 66.7 66.7 0.0 66.7

# ~-------1

UEC PliotUEC EF MMBlulyr k!o'.'h.tr MMBluftr Dealgn 0 lion Combination 5.8% 1.5 0.0 0.0 Eleclroniclgnltion 5.4% 3S,9% 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.8 66.7 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.0

- 0.0 Eleclroolclgnldon 0.0 CooklOP + Oven 0.0 Cooktop+Oven

UEC PllotUEC EF MMB r kWlW( MMB r Desl nOtion Comblnatlon 6.5% 1.2 37.1 0.0 Max Tech (Glo-barlgnition) 6.5% 1.1 69.7 0.0 Max Tech 42.0% 1.3 0 0.0 Max Tech 2.5 37.1 0.0 CooklOP + Oven (Glo-barignilion) 2.4 69.7 0.0 Cooklop + Oven 2. 53.4 Source Design UEC: 1996 DOE TSD. Table 1.13; Design Price: 1997 DOE Supplemental. Table 422 No Design Change Design UEC: 1996 DOE TSO. Table 1.8; Desion Price: 1997 ODE SUP m€fllal. Table 4.13

Source 1996 DOETSD, Table 1.13 1996DOETSO. Table 1.14 199600ETSD, Table 1.8

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas Residential

Electricity

Conv Factor source/site Btu/kWh 2001 1.09 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 1.09 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 1.09 10972 2004 1.09 10924 natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 2005 1.09 10913 8% 2006 1.09 10903 2007 1.09 10894 2008 1.09 10868 2009 1.09 10785 2010 1.09 10749 2011 1.09 10712 2012 1.09 10679 2013 1.09 10635 2014 1.09 10584 2015 1.09 10542 2016 1.09 10515 2017 1.09 10483 2018 1.09 10436 2019 1.09 10408 2020 1.09 10376 2021 1.09 10345 2022 1.09 10322 2023 1.09 10298 2024 1.09 10275 2025 1.09 10252 2026 1.09 10223 2027 1.09 10194 2028 1.09' 10166 2029 1.09 10139 2030 1.09 10113 2031 1.09 10087 2032 1.09 10061 2033 1.09 10035 2034 1.09 10010 2035 1.09 9983 2036 1.09 9957 2037 1.09 9931 2038 1.09 9905 2039 1.09 9879 2040 1.09 9853 2041 1.09 9828 2042 1.09 9802 2043 1.09 9777 2044 1.09 9751 2045 1.09 9726 2046 1.09 9700 2047 1.09 9675 2048 1.09 9650 2049 1.09 9625 2050 1.09 9600 2051 1.09 9575 2052 1.09 9550 2053 1.09 9525 2054 1.09 9500 2055 1.09 9475 

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential Residential natural gas Electricity

Con v Factor source/site Btu/kWh 

# 2001 1.09 11126 2002 1.09 10986 2003 1.09 10972 2004 1.09 10924 2005 1.09 10913 2006 1.09 109Q3 2007 1.09 10894 2008 1.09 10868 2009 1.09 10785 2010 1.09 10749 2011 1.09 10712 2012 1.09 10679 2013 1.09 10635 2014 1.09 10584 2015 1.09 10542 2016 1.09 10515 2017 1.09 10483 2018 1.09 10436 2019 1.09 10408 2020 1.09 10376 2021 1.09 10345 2022 1.09 t0322 2023 1.09 10298 2024 1.09 t027.5 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 calculated from AEO 

# 2004

on extrapolation of trend from 

# 2015-2025

natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 

# 8%

# Fuel Price

Natural Gas Electricity $/MMBTU $/ 1000 ft3 2001 9.54 9.79 8.71 from AEO 2004 

# 2002 7.66 7.86 8.44 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 9.04 9.29 8.49 

# 2004 8.83 9.07 8.34 1.027 MMBTU/1000 ft3 2005 8.40 5.63 8.23 2006 8.20 8.42 8.13 2007 S.09 3.31 S.01 2008 8.04 

# 8.26 7.98

2009 7.81 8.02 7.99 2010 7.68 7.88 7.95 2011 7.81 8.02 7.94 2012 7.94 8.16 8.01 2013 8.10 8.32 8.03 2014 8.19 8.41 8.07 2015 8.30 8.52 8.11 2016 8.31 8.53 8.14 2017 8.31 8.53 8.10 2018 8.25 8.48 8.12 2019 8.17 8.40 8.08 2020 8.24 8.47 8.10 2021 8.41 8.64 8.14 2022 8.39 8.62 8.13 2023 8.38 8.61 8.09 2024 8.37 8.60 8.14 2025 8.33 8.56 8.15 2026 8.34 8.15 2027 8.34 8.15 2028 8.34 8.16 2029 8.35 8.16 2030 8.37 8.17 2031 8.38 8.18 

# 2032 8.38 8.18 2033 8.35

. 8.19 2034 8.38 8,20 2035 8,38 820 2036 8.38 8.21 2037 5.39 8,21 2038 8.39 8.22 2039 8.39 8.23 2040 8.40 8.23 2041 8.40 8.24 2042 8.40 8.24 2043 8.41 8.25 2044 8.41 8.26 2045 8.41 8.26 2046 8.42 8.27 2047 8.42 9.29 2048 8.42 

# 8,28 2049 8A 3 8.29 

# 2050 8.43 8.30 2051 8.44 8.30 2052 

# 8.44 8.31 2053 8.-14 831 2054 8.45 5.32 2055 8.45 8.33



# Page 7 20.0.1 20.0.2 20.0.3 20.0.4 20.0.5 20.0.6 20.0.7 20.0.8 20.0.9 20.10 20.11 20.12 20.13 20.14 20.15 20.16 20.17 20.18 20.19 20.20. 20.21 20.22 20.23 20.24 20.25 20.26 20.27 20.28 20.29 20.30. 20.31 20.32 20.33 20.34 20.35 20.36 20.37 20.38 20.39 20.40. 20.41 20.42 20.43 20.44 20.45 20.46 20.47 20.48 20.49 20.50. 20.51 20.52 20.53 20.54 20.55 Natural Gas Electricity 

# $IMMBTU $/100.0. 

# ft3 9.54 

# 9.79 8.71 

# 7.66 7.86 8.44 

# 9.0.4 9.29 8.49 8.83 

# 9.07 8.34 

# 8.40. 8.63 8.23 

# 8.20. 

# 8.42 8.13 8.0.9 

# 8.31. 8.0.1 8.0.4 

# 8.26 7.98 

# 7.81 7.68 7.81 

# 7.94 8.10 8.19 8.30. 8.31 

# 8.31

. 8.25

8:17 8.24 8.41 8.39 8.38 

# 8:37 

# 8.02 7.99 7.88 7.95 8.02 

# 7.94 

# 8.16 8.0.1 8.32 8.0.3 

# 8.41 8.0.7 

# 8.52 8.11 

# 8.53 8.14 

# 8.53 8.10. 8.48 8;12 

# 8040 8;0.8 

# 8047 8;10. 8.64 

# 8.14. 

# 8,62 8013 8.:61 8:0.9 

# 8,60 8.56 Fuel Price

from AEO 2004**LL~,"_.~_.~,",;.'-_** •. 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025

1.027 

# MMBTUIlOOO ft3

Page?

# Cooking P roducts : M icrowave Ovens

Efficiency Improvement Level baseline + design option cc

Discount rate 

# I 7%

Discount to year 2003 -7



# Product lifetime ( nearest full y ear) 10 NES (quads) NPV (billion $) 0.32 

# Cooking Products: Microwave Ovens

I Efficiency Improvement Level 

# I Discount rate . . ....n

....... .... 

# .1 baseline+design option**CC~** 

# 7%1

IDiscount to year 

# r 20633

I Product lifetime (nearest full year) 

# 101 NES (quads) 

# 0.321

NPV (billion $) 

# -$4.661

## Microwave Oven Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic Iniprov

. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Imp roe. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings Base Operating

Cost Effic.

Improv. Operating Cost Anneal

Fuel Cost Savings 

### PVAnuual

Fuel Cost Savings PV

Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings Delta Unit

Price Total

Incremental Equip. Cost PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost PV

Cumulative Equip. Cost Net

Cumulative PV Million million kivldvr kwlr/vr quads quads quads rinds billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ 2001 13.47 96.72 143 143 0.154 0.154 $ 1.21 $ 1.21 2002 13.31 102.84 143 143 0.162 0.162 $ 1.24 $ 1.24 2003 13.31 108.91 143 143 0.171 0.171 $ 1.32 $ 1.32 '.. 2004 13.31 113.65 143 143 0.178 0.178 $ 1.36 S 1.36 2005 13.31 118.80 143 143 0.186 0.186 $ 1.40 $ 1.40 '.. 2006 13.31 123.34 143 143 0.193 0.193 $ 1.44 $ 1.44 2007 13.31 127.76 143 143 0.199 0.199 $ 1.47 $ 1.47 '.. 2008 13.31 130.71 143 143 0.203 0.203 5 1.49 $ 1.49 2009 13.31 132.60 143 143 0.205 0.205 $ 1.52 $ 1.52 2010 13.31 133.27 143 132 0.205 0.204 0.002 0.002 $ 1.52 $ 1.51 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 51 -00.68 -$0.42 -$0.42 -50.42 2011 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.204 0.201 0.003 0.005 $ 1.51 $ 1.49 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 5 0.02 $ 51 -50.68 -$0.40 -$0.82 -50,80 2012 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.204 0.199 0.005 0.009 $ 1.53 $ 1.49 $ 0.03 $ 0.02 S 0.04 S 51 -$0.68 -$0.37 51.19 -51.15 2013 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.203 0.197 0.006 0.015 $ 1.53 5 1.49 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 S 0.06 $ 51 -$0.68 50,35 -$1.53 -S1.47 2014 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.202 0.194 0.008 0.023 $ 1.54 $ 1.48 S 0.06 S 0.03 $ 0.09 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.32 -$1.85 -81.76 2015 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.201 0.192 0.009 0.032 $ 1.55 $ 1.48 $ 0.07 $ 0.03 $ 0.12 $ 51 -$0.68 -$0.30 -52.16 -$2.03 2016 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.200 0.190 0.011 0.043 $ 1.55 $ 1.47 $ 0.08 S 0.03 $ 0.16 $ 51 -50.68 -80.28 -$2.44 -$2.28 2017 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.200 0.188 0.012 0.055 S 1.54 $ 1.45 $ 0.09 $ 0.04 $ 0.19 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.26 -$2.70 -$2.51 2018 13.31 133.11 143 132 0,199 0.185 0 .014 0.068 S 1.55 $ 1.44 5 0.11 $ 0.04 $ 0.23 5 51 -$0.68 -$0.25 -$2.95 -$2.72 2019 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.198 0.183 0.015 0.083 $ 1.54 $ 1.42 5 0.12 $ 0.04 S 0.27 5 51 -$0.68 -$0.23 -$3.18 -52.91 2020 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.198 0,183 0.015 0 .098 5 1.54 $ 1.43 $ 0.12 $ 0.04 $ 0.31 S 51 -$0.68 -50.21 -$3.39 -$3.09 2021 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.197 0.182 0.015 0.113 $ 1.55 $ 1.43 $ 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.34 $ 51 -50.68 -$0.20 -$3.59 -53.25 2022 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.197 0.182 0.015 0.128 $ 1.55 $ 1.43 5 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.37 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.19 -$3.78 -$3.41 2023 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.196 0.181 0.015 0.143 $ 1.54 $ 1.42 5 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.40 $ 51 -$0.68 -$0.18 -$3.96 -$3.55 2024 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.196 0.181 0.015 0.157 $ 1.55 $ 1.43 $ 0.12 S 0.03 S 0.43 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.16 -$4.12 -$3.69 2025 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.195 0.181 0.015 0.172 $ 1.55 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.46 $ 51 -50.68 -$0.15 -54.27 -53.82 2026 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.195 0.180 0.015 0.187 $ 1.55 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.48 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.14 -84.42 -53.93 2027 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.194 0.180 0.015 0.201 $ 1.55 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 S 0.51 5 51 -$0.68 -$0.13 -54.55 -$4.05 2028 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.194 0.179 0.015 0216 $ 1.55 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.53 $ 51 -50.68 -50.13 -54.68 -54.15 2029 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.193 0.179 0.015 0.231 $ 1.56 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0,02 $ 0.55 $ 51 -$0.68 -50.12 -$4.79 -$4.25 2030 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.193 0.178 0.015 0,245 $ 1.56 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.57 $ 51 -$0.68 50.11 -54.90 -54.34 2031 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.192 0.178 0,015 0.260 $ 1.56 S 1.44 $ 0.12 5 0.02 $ 0.58 $ 51 -50.68 -$0.10 -$5.00 -$4.42 2032 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.192 0.177 0.014 0274 $ 1.56 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.60 $ 51 -50.68 -50.10 -55.10 -54.50 2033 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.191 0.177 0.014 0.289 $ 1.56 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 5 0.02 $ 0.62 5 51 -$0.68 -50.09 -55.19 -54.57 2034 13.31 133.11 143 132 0.191 0.176 0.014 0.303 5 1.56 $ 1.44 $ 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0.63 $ 51 -50.68 -50.08 -55.27 -54.64 2035 1331 133.11 143 132 0.190 0.176 0.014 0.317 5 1.56 $ 1.45 5 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0.64 $ 51 50.68 -50.08 -55.35 -54.71 2036 0 119.80 143 132 0,171 0.158 0,013 0.330 $ 1.41 $ 1.30 5 0.11 $ 0.01 $ 0.65 -55.35 -54.69 2037 0 106.49 143 132 0.151 0.140 0.011 0.342 $ 1.25 $ 1.16 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 S 0.66 -$5.35 -$4.69 2038 0 93.18 143 132 0.132 0.122 0.010 0.352 $ 1.10 $ 1.01 $ 0.08 $ 0.01 $ 0.67 -$5.35 -54,68 2039 0 79.87 143 132 0.113 0.104 0.009 0.360 $ 0.94 $ 0.87 $ 007 $ 0.01 $ 0.68 -55.35 -84.67 2040 0 66.56 143 132 0.094 0.087 0.007 0.367 $ 0.78 $ 0.73 $ 0.06 $ 0.00 $ 0.68

- 5535 -$4.67 2041 0 53.24 143 132 0.075 0.069 0.006 0.373 $ 0.63 $ 0.58 $ 0.05 S 0.00 $ 0.69 55.35 -54.66 2042 0 39.93 143 132 0.056 0.052 0.004 0.377 $ 0.47 $ 0.44 S 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.69 -55.35 -54.66 2043 0 26.62 143 132 0.037 0.034 0.003 0.380 $ 0.31 $ 0.29 $ 0.02 5 0.00 $ 0.69 -55.35 -54.66 2044 0 13.31 143 132 0.019 0.017 0.001 0.381 $ 0.16 $ 0.15 $ 0. 01 S 0.00 $ 0.69 -55.35 -$4.66 2045 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0,69 -$5.35 54.66 2046 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -$5.35 -54.66 2047 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -55.35 -54.66 2048 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 5 - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -$5.35 -54.66 2049 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -$535 -54.66 2050 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - S - $ - $ - 5 0.69 -$5.35 -54.66 2051 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -55.35 -$4.66 2052 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -$5.35 -54.66 2053 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -$5.35 -$4.66 2054 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.381 $ - S - $ - $ - $ 0.69 -55.35 -$4.66 2055 0 0.00 143 132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.381 S $ - $ S $ 0.69 -$5.35 -$4.66 

## Microwave Oven Shipments and Stock

Year

2001 2002 

### 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

### 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 

### 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1024 2025 

### 2026 2027 2028 2029 

### 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 

### 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 

### 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 

### 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 

### New Surviving Shipment Units 

### millioll

13.47 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13,31 13,31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13,31 13.31 13,31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 1331 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13.31 13,31 13,31 

### 13.31 13.31 13,31 13.31 

## o 

# o million 96.72 102.84 108,91 113.65 118.80 123.34 127.76 130.71 132.60 133.27 133,11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133,11 133,11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133,11 133.11 133,11 133,11 133.11 133.11 133.11 133.11 119.80 106.49 93.18 79.87 66.56 53.24 39,93 26.62 13.31 0,00 0.00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0.00 0.00 

### Effie lmprov. 

### BaseVEC VEC Iovh/vr kwh/vr 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 

### 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 131 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 

### 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 

### Base Total

Energy uads Effie 

## Improv. Total Euergy /lads 

## Allnual EIJergy Savings /lads 0.154 0.154 0.162 0.162 0.171 0.171 0.178 0.178 0.186 0.193 0.199 0.203 0.205 0.205 0.204 0.204 0.203 0.202 0.201 0.200 0.200 0.199 0.198 0,198 0.197 0.197 0.196 0.196 0.195 0.195 0.194 0.194 0.193 0,193 0.192 0.192 0.191 0.191 0.190 0.171 0.151 0.132 0.113 0,094 0.075 0,056 0,037 0.019 0,000 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0.186 0.193 0.199 0.203 0.205 0.204 0.002 0.201 0.003 0,199 0.005 0.197 0.006 0.194 0,008 0.192 0.009 0.190 0.011 0.188 0.012 0.185 0.014 0.183 0.Q15 0.183 0.Q15 0.182 0.Ql5 0.182 0.015 0.181 0.Q15 0.181 0.Ql5 0.181 0.Q15 0.180 0.Q15 0.180 0,015 0.179 0.Q15 0.179 0,015 0.178 0.Q15 0.178 0,015 0.177 0.014 0.177 0.014 0.176 0.014 0.176 0.014 0.158 0,013 0.140 0,011 0.122 0.010 0.104 0.009 0.087 0.007 0.069 0.006 0.052 0.004 0.034 0.003 0.017 0.001 0,000 0,000 0,000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0,000 0.000 0,000 0,000 0,000 

## CU11lulative Energy Savings Base Operating Cost 

### nads 

### billi01l $ $ 1.21

0.002 $ 0,005 $ 0.009 $ 0.015 $ 0.023 $ 0.032 $ 0.043 $ 0,055 $ 0.068 $ 0,083 $ 0.098 $ 0.113 $ 1.24 1.32 

### 1.36 1.40 1.44 1.47 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.54 1.55 1.54 1.54 1.55 1.55 

### Effie. 

## Improv. Operating Cost 

### billion $ $ 1.21 1.24 1.32 

### 1.36 1,40 1.44 1.47 1.49 1.52 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1,48 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.44 1,42 1.43 1.43 1.43 0.128 $ 0.143 $ 0.157 $ 0.172 $ 0,187 $ 0.201 $ 0,216 $ 0.231 $ 0.245 $ 0.260 $ 0.274 $ 0.289 $ 0,303 $ 0.317 $ 0,330 $ 0.342 $ 0.352 $ 0.360 $ 0.367 $ 0.373 $ 

### 0.377 $ 0.380 $ 0.381 $ 0.381 0.381 0.381 0.381 0,381 0.381 0,381 $ 0,381 $ 0.381 $ 0.381 0.381 1.54 $ 1.55 1,42 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.30 1.16 1.01 0.87 0.73 0.58 0,44 0.29 0,15 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.41 1.25 1.10 0.94 0.78 0.63 0,47 0.31 0.16 

### PV 

## Ammal PV AIJIJllal Cumulative Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Fuel Cost Savings Savings billion 

### $ 

### billi01l $



## om 0.02 0.Q3 0.05 0,06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 $ 0.11 0,09 0.08 007 0,06 0,05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.Q1 0.01 0.02 0.02 O.oJ 0,03 0.03 0,04 0.04 0,04 0.04 0,03 0.03 O.oJ 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.Q1 0.Q1 0.Q1 0.01 0.Q1 0,00 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 

### Savings billion 

### $

0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0,09 0.12 0,16 0.19 0.23 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.37 0,40 0.43 0.46 0.48 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.58 0,60 0.62 0,63 0.64 0,65 0,66 0,67 0.68 0.68 0,69 0,69 0,69 0,69 0,69 0,69 0.69 0,69 0.69 0,69 0,69 0,69 0.69 0.69 0.69 

### Total Delta Unit llzcremelltai Price Equip. Cost 

### $ bil/ioll 

### $

51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 ·$0,68 -$0.68 ·$0.68 -$0,68 -$0.68 ·$0,68 ·$0,68 -$0,68 -$0,68 -$0,68 -$0,68 -$0,68 ·$0,68 -$0.68 -$0,68 -$0.68 -$0,68 -$0.68 -$0,68 -$0,68 -$0.68 -$0,68 -$0,68 ·$0.68 ·$0,68 -$0.68 

### PVTotal PV 

## Net Incremental Cumulative Cumulative Equip Cost Eqllip. Cost PV 

### billion $

-$0.42 -$0.40 -$0.37 -$0,35 -$0.32 -$0.30 -$0.28 -$0,26 -$0.25 -$0.23 -$0.21 -$0.20 -$0.19 -$0.18 ·$0.16 -$0.15 -$0.14 -$0.13 -$0,13 -$0.12 ·$0,11 -$0.10 ·$0.10 -$0.09 -$0,08 -$0.08 

### billion $

-$0.42 -$0.82 -$1.19 -$1.53 -$1.85 -$2.16 -$2.44 -12,70 -$2.95 -$3.18 -$3.39 -$3.59 -$3.78 -$3.96 -$4.12 -$4.27 -$4,42 -$4.55 -$4,68 -$4.79 -$4,90 -$5,00 -$5.10 -$5.19 -$5.27 -$5.35 ·$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 ·$5.35 -$5.35 -$5.35 ·$5,35 

### billioll 

### $

-$0.42 -$0,80 -$1.15 -$1,47 -$1.76 -$2.03 -$2.28 -$2.51 -$2.72 -$2.91 -$3.09 -$3.25 -$3.41 -$3.55 -$3.69 -$3.82 -$3.93 -$4,05 -$4.15 -$4.25 -$4,34 -$4.42 -$4.50 -$4.57 -$4.64 ·$4,71 -$4.69 -$4.69 -$468 -$4.67 -$4.67 -$4,66 -$4.66 -$4.66 -$4.66 -$4,66 -$4,66 -$4.66 -$4.66 ·$4,66 ·$4,66 -$4.66 ·$4.66 -$4.66 -$4,66 ·$4,66

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 7.190 historical data 1983 7.190 back and forward projections 1984 7.190 1985 7.190 1986 7.190 1987 7.190 1988 7.190 1989 7.190 1990 7.190 1991 7.190 1992 7.190 1993 7.240 1994 8.574 1995 8.162 1996 8.771 1997 8.883 1998 10.365 1999 11.422 2000 12.644 2001 13.466 2002 13.311 2003 13.311 2004 13.311 2005 13.311 2006 13.311 2007 13.311 2008 13.311 2009 13.311 2010 13.311 2011 13.311 2012 13.311 2013 13.311 2014 13.311 2015 13.311 2016 13.311 2017 13.311 2018 13.311 2019 13.311 2020 13.311 2021 13.311 2022 13.311 2023 13.311 2024 13.311 2025 13.311 2026 13.311 2027 13.311 2028 13.311 2029 13.311 2030 13.311 2031 13.311 2032 13.311 2033 13.311 2034 13.311 2035 13.311 

# Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical + 

# Year Projected 1982 

# 7.190 

# historical data 1983 

# 7.190

# ;~.~~~~ 

# back and forward projections 1984 

# 7.190 1985 

# 7.190 1986 

# 7.190 1987 

# 7.190 1988 

# 7.190 1989 

# 7.190 1990 

# 7.190 1991 

# 7.190 1992 

# 7;190 1993 

# 7.240 1994 

# 8.574 1995 

# 8.162 1996 

# 8;]"71 1997 

# 8,8&3 1998 

# 10.$q5 1999 

# 11.4 2 2 2000 

# 1. 2 

# ,()44 2001 

# 13i466 2002 

# 13.311 2003 

# 13.311 2004 

# 13.311 2005 

# 13.311 2006 

# 13.311 2007 

# 13.311 2008 

# 13.311 2009 

# 13.311 2010 

# 13.311 2011 

# 13.311 2012 

# 13.311 2013 

# 13.311 2014 

# 13.311 2015 

# 13.311 2016 

# 13.311 2017 

# 13.311 2018 

# 13.311 2019 

# 13.311 2020 

# 13.311 2021 

# 13.311 2022 

# 13.311 2023 

# 13.311 2024 

# 13.311 2025 

# 13.311 2026 

# 13.311 2027 

# 13.311 2028 

# 13.311 2029 

# 13.311 2030 

# 13.311 2031 

# 13.311 2032 

# 13.311 2033 

# 13.311 2034 

# 13.311 2035 

# 13.311

# Efficiency Level UEC (kwh/yr) Unit Price

Baseline 143.2 $ 145 Baseline + Design Option Combinations 132.4 $ 196 Efficiency Level UEC (kwh/yr) Unit Price Baseline 143.2 

# $ 145 Baseline 

# + Design Option Combinations 132.4 $ 196

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline Base Equip Dsgn Option DsgnOption TotalEquip UEC Price % l ncr Price Product Class 55.7% 143.2 1432

Price Price %Incr Price Equip O p tion Combination ip I Co Source 34.9% UEC: 1996 DO D, Table 1.17; Price: 1996 DOE T D, Table 4.8 Price : 2003 AHAM Fact Book plus percent increase due to design options

AHAM Fact Book 2003 2002 p rices ) Table 15 Electric Range $508 Gas Range $497 Microwave Oven $145 

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Electric Range Gas Range Microwave Oven 

### AHAM Fact Book 2003 

### 2002 rices Table 15 

### $508 $497 $145

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh 

# 2001 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 10972 2004 10924 2005 10913 2006 10903 2007 10894 2008 10868 2009 10785 2010 10749 2011 10712 2012 10679 2013 10635 2014 10584 2015 10542 2016 10515 2017 10483 2018 10436 2019 10408 2020 10376 2021 10345 2022 10322 2023 10298 2024 10275 2025 10252 2026 10223 2027 10194 2028 10166 2029: 10139 2030 10113 2031 10087 2032 10061, 2033 10035 2034 10010 2035' 9983 20361 9957 2037'. 9931 2038 9905 2039 9879 2040 9853 2041 9828 2042! 9802 2043! 9777 20441 9751 2045 9726' 2046 9700 2047 9675 2048 9650 2049: 9625 2050 9600 2051 9575 2052 9550 2053 9525 2054 9500 2055 9475 

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv 

# Factor Btu/kWh 2001 11126 2002 10986 2003 10972 2004 10924 2005 10913 2006 10903 2007 10894 2008 10868 2009 10785 2010 10749 2011 10712 2012 10679 2013 10635 2014 10584 2015 10542 2016 10515 2017 10483 2018 10436 201910408 2020 1.0376 202110345 2022 10322 20231 calculated from AEO 2004**~~~** 

# ..**~~,~~._~.,** 

# .. based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025

# Fuel Price

Elec cent/kWh 2001 8.71 from AEO 2004 2002 8.44 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 5.49 2004 8.34 2005 8.23 2006 5.13 2007 8.01 2008 7.98 2009 7.99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8.03 2014 8.07 2015 8.11 2016 8.14 2017 8.10 2018 8.12 2019 8.08 2020 8.10 2021 8.14 2022 8.13 2023 8.09 2024 8.14 2025 8.15 2026 8.15 2027 8.15 2028 8.16 2029 8.16 2030 8.17 2031 8.18 2032 8.18 2033 5.19 2034 8.20 2035 8.20 2036 8.21 2037 8.21 2038 8.22 2039 8.23 2040 9.23 2041 824 2042 8.24 2043 8.25 2044 8.26 2045 8.26 2046 8.27 2047 9.28 2048 8.28 2049 8.29 2050 8.30 2051 5.30 2052 8.31 2053 8.31 2054 8.32 2055 8.33



# Page 7 Fuel Price

Elec cent/kWh 

# 2001 8.71 

# from AEO 2004 2002 8.44**'~** ..

# ~cc;": •. .J .•

# ,.~;.;~ ...

# ~' 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015·2025 2003 8.49 2004 8.34 2005 8.23 2006 8.13 2007 8.0.1 2008 7.98 2009 7.99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8.03 2014 8.07 2015 8.11 

# 2016 8.14 2017 8.10 2018 8.12 2019 8.08 2020 8.10 2021 8.14 2022 8.13 2023 8.09. 2024 8.14 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055



# Page 7

# D irect H eating Equipment: Hearth Products



# I Efficienc Improvement Level baseline+electronic ignition

y

Discount rate

Discount to 

# 1

2004 NES (quads) NPV (billion $) -0.10

-$1.25

Product lifetime (to nearest year) 30 

# Direct Heating Equipment: Hearth Products 

# I Efficiency Improvement 

# Level 

# r baseline+electronic ignition 

# I Discount rate 

# 7%1 

# I Discount to

# year2004-~ 

# I Product lifetime (to nearest year) 301 .

# ~ NES (quads)

NPV (billion $) -0.101

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^ ««HearthProductShipmentsandStockNewSlInlringYearShipm<1nlUnitsmillion20lS2016lll-ll20S72058'.n1.ll0.901.1l...,10.S!0.9011.71,m'm,m'.W0.9016.200.9017.10,m0.90'.W0.90'.W,.W...,'m'.WIU919.7926.910.902MIo26.0125.12ZO.6319.7318.11414.3513.4610.769.811.91om6.285.3iU92.691.19'.WAnlllUlIPVEffieEjJieBauTotalIntprov.EjJie.lrnprov.EMrgyEMrvBastBauFutlE:jJieEjficIrnpruvAnnuallmprovAnNw'Annuallrnprov.Annual()peroling()perulingCumuwtil'eTolQIPVTolalPVAnl'llmlCurnu14lu-cPrrUmlBauPtrUnttEJlkTOlalBasrTolalEjJie.AnnwlBlmUECBtucUECInrprlmIntpffmBlmTot41EltdmSlIlllIgr(glirSOllngJ(gol+FudC9J1CosI·lmpUlf.FulilFlldC91l.Mllm(tnanCCMlllilftnallcc/'.fllmtfnancfMainlflfllnctCostCuslOperalingDtlroIntrtllVlllulCumululil·t Cumu/ulil·tGalElteVECGa,UECElteGJIEMrgyErurgyEMrgy+c1re)cltc)·GuEltdncCost.GalEfttfncCortCallCaslCortSalinglSal'inglCflslSlllinglUnitPriceEquip.C,ulEqUIpCO$/Equip.CastPVrkW/l/vrMMJJ1'UkWJl/vr10"r('<1"DdsSOlfret'"tu/s,adssrmrrt"Ddssourre"DdssOI'rce,uulsbIIllOl,$billionSbillloll$bill"",$$'$blll,on$bill/a"$billionS/,il/{on$bill;",,$:$billionSbillionSbilli<mSbJlIlonS"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""0.0.56(I.ooJ0056OOOlS049$001S049S001$398$398$000)$0.0660.002 0.0660.002$0.41$0.01$0.41$O.oJ$3.98$3.93$o.onO.ool3.9$$3.98$0.1320.143O.ISI0.2740.2130.2910.2990.3260.32$0.3290.3290.3290.3290.3110.2740.2·Uo.no0.20!0.1970.1&60.1420.1310.1200.1l0O.02l0.0110.0050.000'.0000.0070.0070.0070.000'.000,.""0.0030.0020.002'.0000.1210.1320.1!60.1960.239,=0.2600.210o.Z940.1010.311O.llS0.1210.3220.2990.2!!0.224O.l130.2010.1920.1710.1600.1490.1390.101.,,,0.07$,.""0.0120.0210.011'.0000.0020.001·O.OO!0.009·0.0020.010·0.002o.on0.013·0.001_0.003-0.00:·0.0040.016-0.0040.019·O.OOS0.019·0.006O.O:!)0.023·0.001·0.001·0.001·0.0070.020·0.0010.019·0.0060.011·0.0060.011·0.006·0.005·0.00:·0.00:0.011·0.004O.OU·O.()(I)0.007....0.0020.0020.0010.0000.000 0.0000.D2S0.02$0.02Soms0.000$1.09$0.03$·0.00151.19$0.01$$.$1.495$_0.007S1.59.$S·0.009$1.\10$0.05$2.00$0.05S2.1&$0.06$2.25.$0.06$0.06S·0.042$0.065$0.06S·0.052$0.065_0.058$O.ITI$-0.1X>I50.015·0.070$2.51$0.01S-0.07652.53$0.01S_0.0113$0.D1$_o.I)90S0.01$,...,0.05$·O.IS;$U6$0.D!i$.0.10551.78S0.055..0.2015·0.2055..0.201$1.70$O.OS$1.61$0.04S'M'1.3651.27$1.19S-0.21050.02$O.MS0.02$0.60S0.02$0.265O.oJ$0.11$0.00$0.0950.00S,.,0.1250.77$O.U$0.90$1.01SI.MS1,45$I.sas2.M$2.15$2.35S2.1952.06S1.91S1.90$l.tlS1.32$1.24$1.011$0.99S0.66$0.5&$0.42SO.llS0.11S0.01150.02S0.02$0.02S0.0)$O.OJSs0.D!iS0.06S0.0lS0.09$0.12$0.13S0.18$0.\9$0.15SO.ISS0.12$0.1150.11S0.09SO.M$0.05$0.01$0.06$0.05$0.0\$0.01$3.91$3.9553.98$3.91S3.9S$3.98$3.93$1.98551.9S$3.98S1.98$3.95$1.98$3.98$1.98$1.93$3.9&S3.98S1.98S3.98S3.9SS3.'n$3.91S3.91$3.98$1.98S1.9&$3.98$3.98$3.<J8$3.9851.9!SM!$1.9!$l.9SS3.91$3.9151.98$3.98S1.91Sl.98S6.61S6.61S6.61$,6.61S6.61$6.61$6.61$6.61$6.61S6.61S6061$6.61S6.61$6.61$6061S6.Cl6.016.61$6.61$6.61$6.01S6.61$Ml$6061$MIS6.61$0.61S6.61S6.61.$6.61$6.61$6.61SMl$6.61$6061SMlS6.61$0.014$0.017$0.024$O.OlaS$0.(w6$0.0:;6S0.060S0.078SO.OSI$0.092$0.096$0.106$0.107$0.107$0.103S0.032$0.079$S0.06&SO.OM$0.011$0.029S0.001$0.00:$O.Oll0.024(O.OO)$.IMI)SIMI)S10.01)$0.=$S(0.01)$0.061$(D.Ol)${0.01)$(O.O))$(O.02)$.(O.(W)5(0.02)$$(0.02)$(0.01)$(0.05)$(0.06)$ (0.02)$10.01)510.(2)S10.07)$ 10.02)$0.126$(O.OI)${O.Ol)S0.132$O.ll!S(0.09)5(O.Ol)SO.l-HS(0.09)$ (0.01)$(0.10)$(O.O":!)$.(0.02)$10.Ol)S0.161S(0.02)$0.104$(0.12)S10.(2)$(0.02)$10.13)$10.l3)$(0.02)$(0.01)$(0.01)$(0.12)$(O.OllSO.lllS(0.11)$(O.01)So.mS(0.1O)S(O.Ons0.119$.(0.10)$(0.01)$0.113$(O.M)$(0.01)S(0.09)$0.1Il1S(0.00)$O.OIlS$(0.01)5(0.00)$(0.07)$ (0.00)$(0.00)$(O.06)S(0.00)$0.011$(0.06)$ (0.00)$0.065$(O,OS)S(0.05)5(0.00)5(0.00)5SS(0.01)$(0.00)$(0.00)${O.021$\O.OO)S(0.01)$(O.OI)S0.000$(0.00)$(0.00)$, ,(0.01)$(0.02\593$(Om)l93S\0.05)$.,,",\0.16)$9]$",",\0.11)$93$(0.23)$\0.15)$Q15",(0.28)$(0.12)$10.34)$93S",(0.37)$(0.19)$91$",\0.47)(0,49)10.50)(0.$1)(0..52)\0.$2)(0.51)10.531\OoSl)(O.S))\0.5-1)\0.5-1)(0.03)$\O.OS)$(0.11)(O.OilS(0.051$(0.16)$10.171tn.OS)S{0.(5)$$(0.23)\O.O-I)S(0.291(O.Ol)S$(0.341{O.ll)S\0.39)5(OAg)$(0.45)$(0.67)10.51)$10.72)10.011S(0_<;.·1)$(0,76)\0.01)$(o.o!)S(0.01)S10.61)$(0.01)$10.63)$10.08)$10.651S10.OS)S(0.01)$10.01)S$(0.71)$(0.11)$(0.71)5(0.71)$(1.15)\0.71)$(0.7))$10.11)$(0.71)$\0.71)$(0.71)$\1.111(O.7I)S11.2l)(0.71)$\1.25)lo.m$(0.71)$(1.25)(1.2:'i\(0.71)$(0.711$

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1972 0.000 1973 0.000 1974 0.000 1975 0.000 1976 0.000 1977 0.000 1978 0.000 1979 0.000 1980 0.000 1981 0.000 1982 0.000 1983 0.000 1984 0.000 1985 0.000 1986 0.000 1987 0.000 1988 0.000 1989 0.000 1990 0.000 1991 0.070 1992 0.139 1993 0.209 1994 0.279 1995 0.348 1996 0.418 1997 0.488 1998 0.557 1999 0.627 2000 0.697 2001 0.766 

# 2002 0,836 Actual data for 2002 and 2003 only 2003 0.897 Back and forward projected at flat shipment level 2004 0.897 2005 0.897 2006 0.897 2007 0.897 2008 0.897 2009 0.897 2010 0.897 2011 0.897 2012 0.897 2013 0.897 2014 0.897 2015 0.897 2016 0.897 2017 0.897 2018 0.897 2019 0.897 2020 0.897 2021 0.897 2022 0.897 2023 0.897 2024 0.897 2025 0.897 2026 0.897 2027 0.897 2028 0.897 2029 0.897 2030 0.897 2031 0.897 2032 0.897 2033 0.897 2034 0.897 2035 0.897 

## Shipments, millions of units Historical 

# + Year 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

## Projected 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.070 0.139 0.209 0.279 0.348 0.418 0.488 0.557 0.627 0.697 0.766 0.836 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 0.897 Actual data for 2002 and 2003 only Back and forward projected at flat shipment level

# UEC gas , UEC elec , Annual UEC gas UEC elec Unit Price source source Total UEC, Maintenance Efficiency Level ( MMBTU /yr) (kWh/yr) (2002$ ) MMBTU MMBTU source MMBTU Cost (2002$) Base 11

. 2 30.5 $ 1 ,760 12. 2 0.33 12

. 5 $3.98 Baseline + Electronic Ignition 10.9 95

. 0 $ 1,854 11

. 9 1.02 12.9 $6.61

Unit Price (1996$) Annual Maintenance Cost (1994$) 1994 CPI 148.2 1996 CPI 156.9 $ 1,535 $3.28 2002 CPI 179.9 $ 1,617 $5.45 UEC gas, UEC elec, Annual UEC gas UEC elec Unit Price source source Total UEC, Maintenance Efficiency Level (MMBTU/yr) (kWh/yr) (2002$) MMBTU MMBTU source MMBTU Cost (2002$) Base 11.2 30.5 $ 1,760 12.2 0.33 12.5 $3.98 Baseline+Electronic Ignition 10.9 95.0 $ 1,854 11.9 1.02 12.9 $6.61

Annual Unit Price Maintenance (1996$) Cost (1994$) 1994 CPI 148.2 1996 CPI 156.9 $ 1,535 $3.28 2002 CPI 179.9 $ 1,617 $5.45

# Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline

Product Class Percent of Total Shi ments Equipment

Price Installation

Price Maintenance

Cost AFUE Input Rating Btu/hr Output Rating

Btu/hr CCF UEC

MMBtu/ r kWh/ r Pilot UEC % w1 pilot CF/da MMBtu/ r Fireplace 71% $1,777 $2 $42 75 100,351 81,216 105 10.5 22.8 76% 1.3 0.47 Fireplace Insert 7% $1,750 $0 $31 69 117,857 102,300 171 17.1 0.0 100% 0.8 0.29 Gas Stove 8% $1,106 $5 $53 78 114,250 87,200 115 11.5 47.5 50% 1.0 0.37 Decorative Gas Logs 14% $437 $7 $65 65 103,182 87,177 120 12.0 74.1 22% 1.0 0.35 Weighted

- Average 51,532.39 $ 2:89 $45 73

. 4 103 , 065 83 , 953 112 1[_____11.2 30:5 68% 1.2 0.44 Annual Maintenance Cost = 

# Baseline + Electronic Ignition $3.28'.`.

Product Class Percent of Total Shi p ments Equipment

Price Installation

Price Maintenance

Cost Input Rating

AFUE Btu/hr Output Rating Btu/hr CCF UEC

MMBtu/ r kWh/ r Pilot UEC % w1 pilot CF/day MMBtu/ r Fireplace 71% $1,861 $9 $75 100,351 81,216 101 10.1 95 0% 0 0.00 Fireplace Insert 7% $1,861 $9 $75 117,857 102,300 168 16.8 95 0% 0 0.00 Gas Stove 8% $1,161 $9 $75 114,250 87,200 113 11.3 95 0% 0 0.00 Decorative Gas Logs 14% $461 $9 $75 103,182 87,177 119 11.9 95 0% 0 0.00 Weighted-Average $1,607.79 $ 9 $75 0

. 0 103 , 065 83 , 953 109 10.9 95 '. 0 0% 0.0 0.00 Annual Maintenance Cost =

Maintenance Cost = present value of cost incurred in the 10th year of appliance's life based on a 6% real discount rate

CCF is 100 cu.ft. 900 - 1050 Btu/cu.ft.

1 CCF = 100,000 Btu 1 CF = 1000 Btu

Sources Price Gas Hearth Products Market Fact Base, February 1996, Gas Research Institute, GRI-96/0013. Added Install Cost

. and Maint

. Cost : 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17. Effc y and UEC data : Hearth Products Meter Study (1995-1997), September 1997, Gas Research Institute, GRI-97/0298. 

# Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline Percent of Total Equipment Installation Maintenance Product Class Shipments Price Price Cost Fireplace 71% $1,777 $2 $42 Fireplace Insert 7% $1,750 $0 $31 Gas Stove 

## 8% $1,106 $5 $53 Decorative Gas Logs 14% $437 $7 $65 Weighted-Average $1,532.3911. $2.8911 $45 Annual Maintenance Cost

_ 

# II $3;28



# Baseline 

# + Electronic Ignition Percent of Total Equipment Installation Maintenance Product Class Shipments Price Price Cost Fireplace 71% $1,861 $9 $75 Fireplace Insert 7% $1,861 $9 $75 Gas Stove 

## 8% $1,161 $9 $75 Decorative Gas Logs 14% $461 $9 $75 Weighted-Average $1,607.7911

# .$~ Annual Maintenance Cost

-

Maintenance Cost = present value of cost incurred in the 10th year of appliance's life based on a 6% real discount rate



## Sources CCF is 100 cu.ft. 900

- 1050 Btu/cu. 

# ft. 1 CCF = 

## 100,000 Btu

1 CF = 

## 1000 Btu Input Rating Output Rating AFUE Btu/hr Btu/hr 

## 75 100,351 81,216 69 117,857 102,300 78 114,250 87,200 65 103,182 87,177 73.4 103,065 83,953

Input Rating Output Rating AFUE Btu/hr Btu/hr 

## 100,351 81,216 117,857 102,300 114,250 87,200 103,182 87,177 0.0 103,065 83,953

Price Added Install Cost. and Maint. Cost: Effcy and UEC data: 

# I :Gas Hearth Products Market Fact Base, February 1996, Gas Research Institute, GRI-96/0013. 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17. Hearth Products Meter Study (1995-1997), September 1997, Gas Research Institute, GRI-97/0298. UEC Pilot UEC CCF MMBtu/yr kWh/vr % 

## w/pi/ot CF/day MMBtu/yr



## 105 10.5 22.8 76% 1.3 0.47 171 17.1 0.0 100% 0.8 0.29 115 11.5 47.5 50% 1.0 0.37 120 12.0 74.1 22% 1.0 0.35 11211

# 11.21~ 68% 1.2 0.44

UEC Pilot UEC CCF MMBtu/vr kWh/vr % 

## w/pi/ot CF/day MMBtu/yr



## 101 10.1 95 0% 0 0.00 168 16.8 95 0% 0 0.00 113 11.3 95 0% 0 0.00 119 11.9 95 0% 0 0.00 10911

# 10.9[~] 0% 0.0 0.00

## Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas Residential

Electricity

Conv Factor source / site Btu/kWh 2001 1

. 09 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 1 .09 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 1 .09 10972 2004 1 .09 10924 natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 2005 1 .09 10913 8% 2006 1 .09 10903 2007 1 .09 10894 2008 1

. 09 10868 2009 1 .09 10785 2010 1 .09 10749 2011 1.09 10712 2012 1 .09 10679 2013 1 .09 10635 2014 1 .09 10584 2015 1 .09 10542 2016 1 .09 10515 2017 1 .09 10483 2018 1 .09 10436 2019 1 .09 10408 2020 1 .09 10376 2021 1 .09 10345 2022 1 .09 10322 2023 1 .09 10298 2024 1 .09 10275 2025 1 .09 10252 2026 1 .09 10221 2027 1 .09 10191 2028 1 .09 10'I (1 2029 1 .09 101:;2 2030 1 .09 10113 2031 1 .09 10087 2032 1.09 10061 2033 1

. 09 1002 2034 1 .09 100-1() 2035 1 .09 995zs 2036 1 .09 9951 2037 1 .09 9931 2038 1 .09 9905 2039 1 .09 9879 2040 1 .09 9853 2041 1.09 9828 2042 1 .09 980? 2043 1 .09 9777 2044 1.09 9751 2045 1 .09 972, I 2046 1 .09 970.2 2047 1.09 967-1 2048 1 .09 965 5 2049 1.09 96' 1-1 2050 1 .09 9600 2051 1 .09 9575 2052 1 .09 9550 2053 1 .09 9525 2054 1 .09 9500 2055 1 .09 9475 2056 1 .09 9451, 2057 1 .09 9426 2058 1 .09 9402 2059 1 .09 9377 2060 1 .09 9353 2061 1 .09, 9328 2062 1 .09 9304 2063 1 .09 9280 2064 1 .09 9256 2065 1 .09 9232 

## Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential Residential natural gas Electricity

Conv Factor source/site Btu/kWh 

## 2001 1.09 11126 2002 1.09 10986 2003 1.09 10972 2004 1.09 10924 2005 1.09 10913 2006 1.09 10903 2007 1.09 10894 2008 1.09 10868 2009 1.09 10785 2010 1.09 10749 2011 1.09 10712 2012 1.09 10679 2013 1.09 10635 2014 1.09 10584 2015 1.09 10542 2016 1.09 10515 2017 1.09 10483 2018 1.09 10436 2019 1.09 t04q8 2020 1.09 10376 2021 1.09 10345 2022 1.09.10322 2023 1.09 10298 2024 1.09 .10275 2025 1.09 2026 1 2027 1 2028 1 2029 1 2030 1 2031 1 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 calculated from AEO 

## 2004 on extrapolation of trend from 

## 2015-2025

natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 8%

# Fuel Price

Natural Gas Electricity $/MMBTU $/1000 ft3 2001 9.5=1 9.79 8.71 

## from AEO 2004 2002 766 7.56 8.4-1 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 9.0-I 9.39 8.49 

## 2004 8.83 

## 9.07 S.34 1.027 MMBTU/1000 f13 2005 5.40 5.63 823 

## 2006 S20 8.12 5.13 

## 2007 6.09 8.31 8.01 

## 2008 S

'. 0-1 

## 5.26 7.93 

## 2009 7.81 8.02 7.99 

## 2010 7.68 7.88 7.95 

## 2011 7.81 

## 8.02 794 

## 2012 7.94 

## 8.16 S O1 2013 8.10 8.32 8.03 

## 2014 8.19 8.41 8.07 

## 2015 830 8.52 5.11 

## 2016 831 8.53 8.14 

## 2017 8.31 8.53 8.10 

## 2018 8.25 

## 8.48 8.12

2019 5.17 8.40 5.05 2020 8.24 8.47 5.10 2021 8.41 8.64 5.14 2022 8.39 

## 8.62 5.13 2023 835 8.61 8.09 

## 2024 8.37 8.60 5.14 

## 2025 8.33 SS6 8.15 

## 2026 8.3=1 8.15

2027 8.34 

## 8.15 2028 8,34 5.16

2029 8.35 8.16

2030 8.37 8'.17 

## 2031 5.38 6.13 2032 2;.38 8.18 

## 2033 8.35 3.19 2034 8.38 5.20 

## 2035 8.38 820 2036 838 5.21 

## 2037 8.39 8.21 

## 2038 8.39 8.22

2039 8.39 5.23 

## 2040 8.40 8.23 

## 2041 8.41) 824 

## 2042 5.40 8.24 2043 i 1.41 825

2044 5.41 

## 8.20 2045 8.41 

## S26 2046 6.42 8.27 

## 2047 5.=12 5.25 

## 2048 8.42 E.28 

## 2049 5,43 S 29 

## 2050 8.43 8.30 2051 8.44 5.30 2052 5.=1=1 8.31 

## 2053 8.44 8.31 2054 8.45 832 2055 8.45 8.33 2056 8.-15 5.33 2057 

## 8.46 8.34 

## 2058 8.46 5.35 

## 2059 5.16 5.35 2060 5.47 5.36 2061 8.47 8.36 

## 2062 8.47 3.37 

## 2063 8.45 338 2064 5.48 5.38 2065 8.45



# Page 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 

## Natural Gas 

# $IMMBTU $/1000 ft3 9.54 9.79 7.66 7.86 9.04 9.29 8.83 9.07 8.40 8.63 8.20 8.42 8.09 8.31 8.04 8.26 7.81 8.02**7~68** 

## 7.88 7.81 8.02 7,94 8.16 8.10 8.32 8,19 8.41' 8.30 8.52 8.3.1 8.53 8.31 8.53 8.25 8.48 8.17 8.40 8.24 8.47 8.41 8.64 8.39 8.62. 8.38 8.61 8.37 8.60 8.56 

## Electricity

8.71 8.44 8.49 8.34 8.23 8.13 8.01 7.98 7.99 7.95 7.94 8.01 8.03 8.07 8.11 8.14. 8.10 8.12 8:Q8 8.10. 8:14 8.13 

## 8.09 8.14 

## Fuel Price

from AEO 2004 on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025

1.027 

# MMBTUllOOO ft3

Page 7

# Direct Heating Equipment : Standard Equipment (Wall Furnaces , Floor Furances , Room Heaters)

Efficiency Improvement Level baseline+electronic ignition

Discount rate

I Discount to 7/6



## 1 2003 

# NES (quads) NPV (billion $) 0.096 

# -$0.15

Product lifetime (to nearest year) 15 

# Direct Heating Equipment: Standard Equipment (Wall Furnaces, Floor Furances, Room Heaters)

I Efficiency Improvement Level 

# r baseline+electronicignition

IDiscount rate 

# 7%1

I Discount to year 2003

# .~ I Product lifetime (to nearest year) 151

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NPV (billion $) 

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# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 0.237 historical data 1983 0.237 back and forward projected 1984 0.237 1985 0.237: 1986 0.237 1987 0.237 1988 0.237 1989 0.237 1990 0.237 1991 0.237 1992 0.237 1993 0.237 1994 0.254 1995 0.238 1996 0.221 1997 0.215 1998 0.207 1999 0.203 2000 0.194 2001 0.191 2002 0.208 2003 0.208 2004 0.208, 2005 0.208 2006 0.208 2007 0.208 2008 0.208 2009 0.208 2010 0.208 2011 0.208 2012 0.208 2013 0.208 2014 0.208 2015 0.208 2016 0.208 2017 0.208111 2018 0.208 2019 0.208 2020 0.208 2021 0.20811 2022 0.208 2023 0.208: 2024 0.208, 2025 0.208 2026 0.208 2027 0.208'11 2028 0.208 2029 0.208' 2030 0.208 2031 0.208 2032 0.208 2033 0.208 2034 0.208 2035 0.20811. 

# Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical 

# + Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 

# historical data back and forward projected

# UEC gas, UEC elec, Annual UEC gas UEC elec Unit Price source source Total UEC, Maintenance Efficiency Level (MMBTU/yr) (kWh/yr) (2002$) MMBTU MMBTU source MMBTU Cost (2002$) Base 30.4 5.3 $ 887 33.0 0.06 33.1 $ 3.87 Baseline+Electronic Ignition 28.0 102.3 $ 1,044 30.4 1.10 31.5 $ 9.37 Baseline+Design Option Combinations 26.3 123.3 $ 1,271 28.6 1.33 29.9 $ 17.13



# Unit Price (1994$) Annual Maintenance Cost (1994$) CPI 1994 148.2 $ 731 $3.19 CPI 2002 179.9 $ 860 $7.72 $ 1,047 $14.11 

# Efficiency Level Base Baseline+Electronic Ignition Baseline+Design Option Combinations

CPI1994 CPI2002 UEC gas (MMBTU/yr) 30.4 28.0 26.3

148.2 179.9 UEC elec Unit Price (kWh/yr) (2002$) 5.3 $ 887 102.3 123.3 $ 1,044 $ 1,271

Unit Price (1994$) $ 731 $ 860 $ 1,047 UEC gas, UEC elec, source source MMBTU MMBTU 33.0 0.06 30.4 1.10 28.6 1.33 Annual Total UEC, Maintenance source MMBTU Cost (2002$) 33.1 31.5 29.9 $ 3.87 $ 9.37 $ 17.13

Annual Maintenance Cost (1994$) $3.19 $7.72 $14.11

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline

Product Class Percent of Total Shi p ments Equipment

Price Installation

Price Maintenance

Cost Minimum

AFUE UEC

MMB4# r kWh

/ r Source 

### Gravity Wall < 10 kBtu/h 2.10% $300 $167 $31 59 7.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtu/h 2.10% $320 $167 $31 60 9.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtu/h 2.10% $340 $167 $31 61 9.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtu/h 2.10% $399 $167 $31 62 11.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtu/h 2.10% $458 $167 $31 63 16.5 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtu/h 32.12% $477 $167 $31 64 24.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Gravity Wall >46 kBtu/h 14.82% $638 $167 $31 65 42.9 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Floor <37 kBtu/h 1.59% $477 $239 $31 56 19.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Floor >37 kBtu/h 5.27% $607 $239 $31 57 48.6 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Room Heater <18 kBtuth 1.23% $389 $310 $31 57 9.5 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Room Heater 18-20 kBts/h 0.29% $418 $310 $31 58 11.6 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 

### Room Heater 20-27 kBtu/h 1.07% $451 $310 $31 63 16.5 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Room Heater 27-46 kBtu/h 7.67% $609 $310 $31 64 24.0 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Room Heater >46 kBtu/h 16.46% $484 $310 $31 65 42.9 0 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 Fan Wall <42 kBtu/h 6.19% $620 $176 $31 73 31.5 59.1 1994 TSD, Table 1.9 Fan Wall >42 kBtu/h 2.78%1 $692 $176 $31 74 43.6 59.7 1994 TSD, Table 1.10 Weighted-Average 3520 $211 $ 31 64.2 ' 30.4 5.3



### Baseline + Electronic Ignition Annual Maintenance Cost = 53.19!



### Product Class Percent of Total Shi p ments Equipment

Price Installation

Price Maintenance

Cost Minimum

AFUE UEC

MMBtulr kWh

/ r 

### Source Gravity Wall < 10 kBtu/h 2.10% $411 $176 $75 65.5 3.8 93.1 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtu/h 2.10% $431 $176 $75 65.4 5.9 94.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtu/h 2.10% $451 $176 $75 65.6 5.9 93.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtu/h 2.10% $510 $176 $75 65.4 7.9 93.6 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtulh 2.10% $569 $176 $75 65.6 13.6 95.5 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtu/h 32.12% $588 $176 $75 65.8 21.3 96.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Gravity Wall >46 kBtu/h 14.82% $749 $176 $75 66.3 40.8 99.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Floor <37 kBtu/h 1.59% $588 $248 $75 56.2 16.0 95.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Floor >37 kBtu/h 5.27% $718 $248 $75 58 46.2 99.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Room Heater <18 kBtu/h 1.23% $500 $319 $75 61.3 6.3 93.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 

### Room Heater 18-20 kBtu/h 0.29% $529 $319 $75 61.2 8.4 93.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Room Heater 20-27 kBtu/h 1.07% $562 $319 $75 65.6 13.6 95.5 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Room Heater 27-46 kBtu/h 7.67% $720 $319 $75 65.8 21.3 99.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Room Heater >46 kBtu/h 16.46% $595 $319 $75 66.3 40.8 96.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Fan Wall <42 kBtu/h 6.19% $731 $287 $75 74.3 30.1 155.5 1994 TSD, Table 1.9; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Fan Wall >42 kBtu/h 2.78% 1 $803 $287 $75 74.9 42.2 159.1 1994 TSD, Table 1.9; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 Weighted

- Average 5631 229 S 5

$7 28:0 102:3

66.1



### Baseline + Design Option Combinations Annual Maintenance Cost =, $7.72

Product Class Percent of Total Shi p ments Equipment Installation Maintenance

Price Price Cost Minimum UEC AFUE MMBtu/ r kWh/ r 

### Desi g n O 

### p tion Combination Source Gravity Wall < 10 katu/h 2.10% $427 $227 $75 67.7 3.7 93.2 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtufh 2.10% $450 $227 $75 67.7 5.7 94.7 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtu/h 2.10% $474 $227 $75 67.7 5.7 93.7 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtu/h 2.10% $540 $227 $75 67.7 7.6 93.6 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtu/h 2.10% $721 $227 $154 67.7 13.2 95.5 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtu/h 32.12% $757 $227 $154 70.5 19.9 137 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Gravity Wall >46 kBtu/h 14.82% $946 $227 $154 70.6 38.2 138.9 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Floor <37 kBtu/h 1.59% $723 $278 $154 66.4 14.0 136.3 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Floor >37 kBtu/h 5.27% $883 $278 $154 65.3 40.4 139 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Room Heater <18 kBtu/h 1.23% $516 $390 $75 64.1 6.0 93.7 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Room Heater 18-20 kBtu/h 0.29% $662 $390 $154 66.8 7.7 135.3 Derate 20%+ Electronic Ignition + Burner Box Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Room Heater 20-27 kBtu/h 1.07% $478 $381 $75 65.6 15.9 0 Derate 20% 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Room Heater 27-46 kBtu/h 7.67% $826 $400 $129 69.3 20.3 96.4 Derate 20%+ Electronic Ignition + Stack Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Room Heater >46 kBtu/h 16,46% $718 $400 $129 69.6 38.8 99.3 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Stack Damper 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Fan Wall <42 kBtu/h 6.19% $855 $227 $126 75.6 29.0 155.5 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Stack Damper 1994 TSD, Table 1.9, Table 4.1; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Fan Wall >42 kBtu/h 2.78%1 $955 $227 $126 76.2 40.7 159.1 Derate 20% + Electronic Ignition + Stack Damper 1994 TSD, Table 1.10, Table 4.2; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 Weighted-Average $771 $27611 $137 70.0 26.311 123.31 

### 1 Annual Maintenance Cost = 514.11'= 

### Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Baseline

Product Class Gravity Wall < 10 kBtu/h Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtu/h Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtulh Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtulh Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtu/h Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtu/h Gravity Wall >46 kBtu/h Floor <37 kBtu/h Floor >37 kBtu/h Room Heater <18 kBtulh Room Heater 18-20 kBtulh Room Heater 20-27 kBtu/h Room Heater 27-46 kBtulh Room Heater >46 kBtulh Fan Wall <42 kBtu/h Fan Wall >42 kBtulh Weighted·Average



### Baseline 

## + Electronic Ignition

Product Class Gravity Wall < 10 kBtulh Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtulh Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtu/h Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtulh Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtulh Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtu/h Gravity Wall >46 kBtu/h Floor <37 kBtu/h Floor >37 kBtulh Room Heater <18 kBtu/h Room Heater 18-20 kBtu/h Room Heater 20-27 kBtulh Room Heater 27-46 kBtulh Room Heater >46 kBtulh 

### Fan Wall <42 kBtulh Fan Wall >42 kBtulh**Weighted~Average** 

### Percent 

### of Total Shipments 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 

### 2.10% 2.10% 32.12% 14.82% 1.59% 

### 5.27% 1.23% 0.29% 1.07% 7.67% 

### 16.46% 6.19% 2.78%

Percent Of Total



### Shi 

### ments 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 

### 2.10% 32.12% 14.82% 1.59% 5.27% 1.23% 0.29% 1.07% 7.67% 16.46% 6.19% 2.78%



### Baseline 

## + Design Option Combinations Percent of Total Product Class Shipments Gravity Wall < 10 kBtu/h 2.10% Gravity Wall 10-12 kBtulh 2.10% Gravity Wall 12-15 kBtulh 2.10% Gravity Wall 15-19 kBtu/h 2.10% Gravity Wall 19-27 kBtu/h 2.10% Gravity Wall 27-46 kBtulh 32.12% Gravity Wall >46 kBtulh 14.82% Floor <37 kBtu/h 1.59% Floor >37 kBtulh 5.27% Room Heater <18 kBtulh 1.23% Room Heater 18-20 kBtulh 0.29% Room Heater 20-27 kBtulh 1.07% Room Heater 27-46 kBtu/h 7.67% Room Heater >46 kBtu/h 16.46% Fan Wall <42 kBtu/h 6.19% Fan Wall >42 kBtu/h 2.78% Weighted-Average Equipment Installation 

### Maintenance Minimum UEC Price Price 

### Cost AFUE 

### MMBtu/yr kWhlyr Source

$300 $167 $31 59 7.0 

# o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $320 $167 $31 60 9.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $340 $167 $31 61 9.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $399 $167 $31 62 11.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $458 $167 $31 63 16.5 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $477 $167 $31 64 24.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $638 $167 $31 65 42.9 01994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $477 $239 $31 56 19.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $607 $239 $31 57 48.6 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $389 $310 $31 57 9.5 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $418 $310 $31 58 11.6 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $451 $310 $31 63 16.5 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $609 $310 $31 

### 64 24.0 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $484 $310 $31 65 42.9 o 1994 GRI Report, Table 3.1 $620 $176 $31 73 31.5 59.1 1994 TSD, Table 1.9 $692 $176 $31 74 43.6 59.7 1994 TSD, Table 1.1 0 $520 $21:1n $31 64.26 30.46 5.3 Annual Maintenance Cost

Equipment



### Price

$411 $431 $451 $510 $569 $588 $749 $588 $718 $500 $529 $562 $720 $595 $731



### Equipment



### Price

$427 $450 $474 $540 $721 $757 $946 $723 $883 $516 $662 $478 $826 $718 $855 $955 

### Installation Maintenance Minimum UEC Price Cost AFUE 

### MMBtU;; r kWh/ r Source $176 $75 65.5 3.8 93.1 1994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 65.4 5.9 94.71994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 65.6 5.9 93.71994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 65.4 7.9 93.6 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 65.6 13.6 95.5 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 65.8 21.3 96.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $176 $75 66.3 40.8 99.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $248 $75 58.2 16.0 95.4 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $248 $75 58 46.2 99.71994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $319 $75 61.3 6.3 93.71994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $319 $75 61.2 8.4 93.7 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $319 $75 65.6 13.6 95.5 1994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $319 $75 65.8 21.3 99.41994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $319 $75 66.3 40.8 96.41994GRI Report, Table 4.17 $287 $75 74.3 30.1 155.5 1994 TSD, Table 1.9; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.17 $287

______

### -;$7~5~--~74~.~9~==~4~2~.2~~1~5~9~.1~19~9~4~T~S~D~,~Ta~b~le~1.~9~;1~9~94~G~R~I~R~ep~o~rt~,~T~ab~le~4~.1~7 ____ 

# 4 $75 66.1 28.0 102.3

Installation Maintenance 

### Minimum UEC

Price Cost AFUE 

### MMBtu/vr kWhlvr Design Option Combination $227 $75 67.7 3.7 93.2 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### $227 $75 67.7 5.7 94.7 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### $227 $75 67.7 5.7 93.7 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### $227 $75 67.7 7.6 93.6 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### $227 $154 67.7 13.2 95.5 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Damper 

### $227 $154 70.5 19.9 137 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Damper 

### $227 $154 70.6 38.2 138.9 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Damper 

### $278 $154 66.4 14.0 136.3 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Damper 

### $278 $154 65.3 40.4 139 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Damper 

### $390 $75 64.1 6.0 93.7 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### $390 $154 66.8 7.7 135.3 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Burner Box Darnper 

### $381 $75 65.6 15.9 o Derate 20% 

### $400 $129 69.3 20.3 96.4 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Stack Damper 

### $400 $129 69.6 38.8 99.3 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Stack Damper 

### $227 $126 75.6 29.0 155.5 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Stack Damper 

### $227 $126 76.2 40.7 159.1 Derate 20% 

### + Electronic Ignition 

### + Stack Damper 

### $137 70.01

### 26.3~ 123.31 Annual Main enance \,;os 

### Source 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 TSD, Table 1.9, Table 4.1; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28 1994 TSD, Table 1.10, Table 4.2; 1994 GRI Report, Table 4.28

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas Residential

Electricity

Conv Factor source/site Btu/kWh 2001 1.09 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 1.09 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 1.09 10972 2004 1.09 10924 natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 2005 1.09 10913 8% 2006 1.09 10903 2007 1.09 10894 2008 1.09 10868 2009 1.09 10785 2010 1.09 10749 2011 1.09 10712 2012 1.09 10679 2013 1.09 10635 2014 1.09 10584 2015 1.09 10542 2016 1.09 10515 2017 1.09 10483 2018 1.09 10436 2019 1.09 10408 2020 1.09 10376 2021 1.09 10345 2022 1.09 10322 2023 1.09 10298 2024 1.09 10275 2025 1.09 10252 2026 1.09 10223 2027 1.09 10194 2028 1.09 10166 2029 1.09 10139 2030 1.09 10113 2031 1.09 10087 2032 1.09 10061, 2033 1.09 10035' 2034 1.09 10010 2035 1.09 9983 2036 1.09 9957 2037 1.09 9931 2038 1.09 9905 2039 1.09 9879 2040 1.09 9853 2041 1.09 9828 2042 1.09 9802 2043 1.09 9777 2044 1.09 9751 2045 1.09 9726 2046 1.09 9700 2047 1.09 9675 2048 1.09 9650 2049 1.09 9625 2050 1.09 9600 2051 1.09 9575 2052 1.09 9550 2053 1.09 9525 2054 1.09 9500 2055 1.09 9475 

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential Residential natural gas Electricity

Conv Factor source/site Btu/kWh 

# 2001 1.09 11126 2002 1.09 10986 2003 1.09 10972 2004 1.09 10924 2005 1.09 10913 2006 1.09 1()903 2007 1.09 10894 2008 1.09 l08p8 2009 1.09 10785 2010 1.09 10749 2011 1.09 ld712 2012 1.09 10679 2013 1.09 10635 2014 1.09 10584 2015 1.09 10542 2016 1.09 10515 2017 1.09 10483 2018 1.09 10436 2019 1.09 :I04Q8 2020 1.09 10376 2021 1.09 10345 2022 1.09 10322 2023 1.09 10298 2024 1.09 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 calculated from AEO 

# 2004**L~~,** . 

## ..c

..

## ~ccC~ .•.

## :;.~.;"" 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 

# 2015-2025

natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 

# 8%

# Fuel Price

Natural Gas Electricity $/MMBTU $/1000 ft3 

# 2001 9.54 9.79 8.71 from AEO 2004 2002 7.66 7.86 8.44 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 9.04 9.29 8.49 

# 2004 8.83 9.07 8.34 1.027 MMBTU / 1000 ft3 2005 840 

# S.63 8.23 2006 8.20 8.42 8.13 2007 5.09 

# 5.31 8.01 2008 8.04 8.26 7.95 2009 7.81 8.02 7.99 2010 7.68 7.88 7.95 2011 7.81 8.02 7.94 2012 7.94 8,16 8.01 2013 8.10 8.32 8.03 2014 8.19 8.41 8.07 2015 8.30 8.52 5.11 2016 8.31 8.53 8.14 2017 8.31 8.53 8.10 2018 8.25 8.48 8.12 2019 8.17 8.40 8.08 2020 8.24 8.47 8.10 2021 8.41 5.64 8.14 2022 8.39 

# 8.62 8.13 2023 8.38 8.61 8.09 2024 8.37 8.60 8.14 2025 8.33 8.56 8.15 2026 

# 8.34 5,15 2027 8.34 8.15 2028 8.34 8.16 2029 8.35 8.16 2030 2.37 8.17 2031 8.38 8.18 2032 8.38 8.188 2033 8.38 8.19 2034 8.38 8.20 2035 838 8,20 2036 8.38 821 2037 8.39 821 2038 8.39 S22 2039 8.39 8.23 2040 8,40 

# U3 2041 8.40 824 2042 S X10 8.2-1 2043 8.41 8.25 2044 8.41 8.26 2045 8.41 8,26 2046 8.42 

# 8,27 2047 8.42 8.28 

# 2048 8.42 8.28 2049 8.43 829 2050 8.43 8.30 2051 8.44 8.30 2052 8.44 8.31 2053 8A4 8.31 2054 5.45 8.32 2055 8.15 8.33



# Page 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Natural Gas Electricity $IMMBTU 

# $/1000 ft3 954 

# 9.79 8.7l 7.66 7.86 

# 8.44 9.04 

# 9.29 8.49 

# 8.83 9.07 8.34 8.40 8.63 

# 8.23 8.20 8.42 

# 8.13 8.09 .8.31 

# 8.01 8.04 8.26 

# 7.98 7.81 7:68 7.81 7.94 8,:10 8.19 8.30 8.31 8.31 8.25

.. 8.17 8:24 8.41 .8.39 " 8.38 8.37 8,02 7:88 8.02 8.16 8.32 

# SAl 8.52 8.53 8:53 .8.48 8.40 8.47 8

.. 64 8.62 8.61 8.60 8.56 

# 7.99 7.95 7.94 

# 8.01 8;03 8;07 8.ll 

# 8,l4 

# no 8.12 8;08 8.10,**8~14** 

# '8;13



# 8:09 Fuel Price

from AEO 2004**'_'~'-''-''--'''c2.cc~based** 

# on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025

l.027 MMBTu/lOOO ft3

Page?

## Typical Typical Annual New New Total Ener gy Annual Annual Equipment Ener gy Annual Energy Use Energy Ener # Units , Lifetime Use, Use (Current ), Current Use, Use. Equipment Types to Investigate millions rs Qua d s MMBtu KWH MMBtu

Dishwasher

Soil Sensorl E" Best Available Typical New P KWH Savings of Best Best Available Available, Annual Relative to Energy Typical Use, New MMBtu Best Available Ener gy Savings, Quads Best Technology

A vailable Energy Energy Savings Savings , Potential Quads Relative to 2008

- Typical New 2030

61.7 13 0.260 4.05 370 3.280 299 58% 1.4 0.117 1.8191 Technol Technol ogv ogy Unit Technolo Ener Annual -qy- Savin g s Energy Energy ,Quads Use, Savings, 2010- MMBtu Quads 2035

0% 3.28 - - 17% 2.73 0.034 0.63 14% 2.83 0.028 0.52 58% 1.38 0.117 2.17 

## Typical Typical Savings of Best Annyal New New Best Available Total Energy Annual Annual Available, Annual Eguipment Energy Annual E!Jergy Y§fL 

## Energy Energy Relative to Energy

Lifetime Use, Use {Current}, {Current}, Use, Use, Typical Use,



## {y!:§.} Quads MMBtu 

# KWH MMBtu 

# KWH New MMBtu Best Available Best Energv Available Savings,

Energy Quads Savings, 

## {200SQuads 

## 2030} Technology: Energy Savings Potential Relative to



## 14% 58% Technol Technol .Q9Y.. 

## ogy Unit Technolo Energy: 

# .8!:!!l.Y2L Energy

Use,



## 1.38 

# 9V.. Savings Energy ,Quads Savings, 

## {201o0.034 0.63 0.028 0.117 0.52 2.17

# Commercial Clothes Dryer

1 "Characterization of Commercial Building Appliances" ADL Aug 1993 2 "Commercial, Family Sized Washers: An Initiative Description of the Consortium for Energy Efficiency" CEE 1998 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000

Residential Dish Washer 4 "Dishwasher Cost-Effectiveness Example" www.eren.doe.gov/femp/procurement/dish_cost.html "Mar, 2001) 5 "Electricity Consumption by Small End Uses in Residential Buildings" ADL Aug., 1998 6 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000 7 EnergyTest Procedures for the Twenty-First Century, May 1998 

# 8 NIST Technology at a Glance, Summer 1997

Residential Clothes Dryers 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000 9 "High Efficiency, Hgh Performance Clothes Dryers" ADL Feb. 2001 10 Consumers Report August 2000



# Commercial Clothes Washer 11 "Characterization of Commercial Building Appliances" Aug. 1993 12 "Commercial, Family Sized Washers: An Initiative Description of the Consortium for Energy Efficiency" CEE 1998 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000 13 "Southern California Edison High-Performance Clothes Washer Demostration at Leisure World Laguna Woods - Final Report" Battelle, Dec, 2000 14 Energy Star Website www.energystar.gov 

# Commercial Clothes Dryer 

# "Characterization of Commercial Building Appliances" ADL Aug 1993 2 "Commercial, Family Sized Washers: An Initiative Description of the Consortium for Energy Efficiency" CEE 1998 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000

Residential Dish Washer 

# 4 "Dishwasher Cost-Effectiveness Example" www.eren.doe.gov/femp/procurementidish_cost.html

.. Mar. 2001) 5 "Electricity Consumption by Small End Uses in Residential Buildings" ADL Aug., 1998 6 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000 7 EnergyTest Procedures for the Twenty-First Century, May 1998 8 NIST Technology at a Glance, Summer 1997

Residential Clothes Dryers 

# 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS) , Feb. 2000 9 "High Efficiency, Hgh Performance Clothes Dryers" ADL Feb. 2001 10 Consumers Report August 2000

Commercial Clothes Washer 

# 11 "Characterization of Commercial Building Appliances" Aug. 1993 12 "Commercial, Family Sized Washers: An Initiative Description of the Consortium for Energy Efficiency" CEE 1998 3 "Guide For Evaluation of Energy Savings Potential" Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), Feb. 2000 13 "Southern California Edison High-Performance Clothes Washer Demostration at Leisure World Laguna Woods

- Final Report" Battelle, Dec, 2000 14 Energy Star Website www.energystar.gov

# DOE Priority Rulemaking : EPACT Update for Incandescent Lamps

A-type lamp Baseline:

Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3:

Regulated reflector lamps Baseline: Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Business as usual, standards in place do not change (EPACT 1992)

A-type incandescent standard introduced, 1.5% improvement on today's typical lamp A-type incandescent standard introduced, 3% improvement on today's typical lamp A-type incandescent goes to halogen standard (20% improvement in efficacy)

Regulated reflector lamp standard does not change , halogen technology standard from EPACT 1992 Slightly higher efficacy improvement over EPACT 1992, 1

. 5% improvement Slightly higher efficacy improvement over EPACT 1992 , 3% improvement Reflector lamps go to halogen infrared reflector ( HIR) standard level (30 % improvement in efficacy) 

# Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Sector Annual

Energy Use TWh/ r Baseline Efficacy

(average, lowest first-cost lamp) Best currently

available technologies Average

Installed Wattage Scenario 1

see above Scenario 2



# ( see above 

# ) Scenario 3



# ( see above 

# ) Annual

Quads PEC Annual

Quads PEC Annual

Quads PEC Annual

Quads PEC A-type incandescent Res 158.38 14.4 14.8 63.0 14.6 14.8 17.3 1.736 1.710 1.685 1.447 A-t a incandescent Com / Ind / Out 75.55 16.0 16.3 85.7 16.2 16.5 19.2 0.828 0.816 0.804 0.690 Regulated reflector lamps All 26.54 14.2 14.4 106.5 14.4 14.6 18.5 0.291 0.287 0.282 0.224

Total 260.46 2.855 2.813 2.772 2.360 Savings over Baseline in one year, general service (Quads PEC) 0.038 0.075 0.427 Savings over Baseline in one year, PAR reflector (Quads PEC) 0.004 0.008 0.067 365.25 Days per year Savings over Baseline in one year (percent) 1.5% 2.9% 17% 1.45 Incandescent lamp lifetime - residential ( years) 4.36 Halogen lamp lifetime - residential ( years) Cumulative savings 2010-2035 for incande scent GLS ( Quads PEC) 0.93 1.83 9.99 0.29 Incandescent lamp lifetime - non

- residential sectors (years) Cumulative savings 2010-2035 for PA R reflector ( Quads PEC) 0.11 0.21 1.64 0.88 Halogen lamp lifetime, non

- residential sectors (years) 

# 0.85 Halogen reflector lamp lifetime, avg. all sectors ( years) UEC Values (kWh/yr) Stock UEC Typical New Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 1.02 HIR regulated reflector lamp lifetime, avg. for all sectors (years) PAR (regulated ) 313 313 309 304 241 292.997 Units conversion, terawatt-hrs per Quad 3.21 Site to source conversion to Quads PEC (BTS Core Databook) 141,499,593 Estimated shipments of regulated reflector lamps 

# DOE Priority Rulemaking: EPACT Update for Incandescent Lamps

A-type lamp Baseline: Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3:

Regulated reflector lamps Baseline: Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Business as usual, standards in place do not change (EPACT 1992) A-type incandescent standard introduced, 1.5% improvement on today's typical lamp A-type incandescent standard introduced, 3% improvement on today's typical lamp A-type incandescent goes to halogen standard (20% improvement in efficacy)

Regulated reflector lamp standard does not change, halogen technology standard from EPACT 1992 Slightly higher efficacy improvement over EPACT 1992,1.5% improvement Slightly higher efficacy improvement over EPACT 1992, 3% improvement Reflector lamps go to halogen infrared reflector (HIR) standard level (30% improvement in efficacy)

Annual

Savings over Baseline in one year, general

365.25 Days per year Savings over Baseline in one year, PAR reflector (Quads**PEC)f-_~:'::'::7:-I** 

## __ -:::':::":::':::'" Savings over Baseline in one year (percent)L...-

__ .:..:.::.:..::J

__ 

## ---=::..::..:.::. 

## 1.45 Incandescent lamp lifetime

- residential (years) 4.36 Halogen lamp lifetime

- residential (years) 0.29 Incandescent lamp lifetime

- non-residential sectors (years) 0.88 Halogen lamp lifetime, non-residential sectors (years) 0.85 Halogen reflector lamp lifetime, avg. all sectors (years) 1.02 HIR regulated reflector lamp lifetime, avg. for all sectors (years) 292.997 Units conversion, terawatt-hrs per Quad 3.21 Site to source conversion to Quads PEC (BTS Core Databook) 141,499,593 Estimated shipments of regulated reflector lamps Cumulative savings 2010-2035 for incandescent GLS (Quads**PEC)f-----:~:+---7';::.._f** 

## Cumulative savings 2010-2035 for PAR reflector (Quads PEC)L-_---':..:....:..:....J..

__ ....::.:.::..:..-'-"".

Stock UEC Typical New Scenario 1 313 313 309 Scenario 2 304

# Canadian Data and Scaling of US Energy Consumption

Canadian Data PAR BR ER Reflector Lamp Sales for Canada, 2001 Totals Res 1,067,464 3,074,152 9,196 4,150,812 units C&I 3,672,198 2,114,432 56,081 5,842,711 units PAR BR ER Estimated Canadian Sales Weighted Average Wattages 2001 Average Res 78.5 74.9 94.6 75.87 watts C&I 80.6 71.9 81.3 77.41 watts Applying the Canadian weighting to the AMC Phase I numbers for the US

- Installed base and Wattages Residential Regulated lamps: Unregulated lamps: Phase I aggregate number: PAR Lamps in US: BR & ER Lamps in US:

Residential wattages Regulated lamps: Unregulated lamps: Phase I aggregate wattage: PAR Lamps in US: BR & ER Lamps in US: 25.7% 74.3% 262,471,071

67,499, 665 units 194,971,406 units

103% 99% 101.5

105.0 Watts 100.3 Watts Output from this process , for use in the Priority Settin US Outputs , Canadian Weighting PAR Non-PAR Totals

Energy Consumption PAR Non-PAR 

# T otals g Commercial & Industrial & Outdoor Stationary Regulated lamps: 62.9% Unregulated lamps: 37.1% Phase I aggregate number: 83,979,997 PAR Lamps in US: 52,782,206 units BR & ER Lamps in US: 31,197,791 units

Wattages: Regulated lamps: 104% Unregulated lamps: 93% Phase I aggregate wattage: 104.3 PAR Lamps in US: 108.5 Watts BR & ER Lamps in US: 97.1 Watts

Average U.S. Inventory wattage

120,281,871 106.54 226,169,197 99.88 Sales weighted hours Res hours C,I, Out Hours 2,941 1,981 885

885 3,538

3,538

Res energy C,I,O energy Total Energy (TWh) (TWh) (TWh) 6.27 20.26 17.31 10.72 

# 26.54 28.04 54.57 346,451,068

Total Quads 0.291 0.307 0.598 scaled to Canadian shipments

scaled to Canadian shipments 

# Canadian Data and Scaling of US Energy Consumption

Canadian Data PAR BR ER Reflector Lamp Sal.es for Canada, 

# 2001 Totals Res 

# 1,067,464 3,074,152 9,196 4,150,812 units C&I 

# 3,672,198 2,114,432 56,081 5,842,711 units PAR BR ER Estimated Canadian Sales Weighted Average Wattages 

# 2001 Average Res 

# I**78'~1** 74.9 94.6 75.87 watts C&I 

# 80.6 71.9 81.3 77.41 watts Applying the Canadian weighting to the LMC Phase I numbers for the US**-...:lo.:.n::;st::::a:.:..:.lle::;d=-=b=as::-:e7a:::n~d:...W.:..:..::a:.:;tt:=a.i!g.e.::::s=-:-_=---.-** 

# _______ --, Residential Commercial & Industrial & Outdoor Stationary Regulated lamps: 

# 25.7% Regulated lamps: 

# 62.9% Unregulated lamps: 

# 74.3% Unregulated lamps: 

# 37.1% Phase I aggregate number: 

# 262,471,071 Phase I aggregate number: 

# 83,979,997

PAR Lamps in US: 

# 67,499,665 units PAR Lamps in US: 

# 52,782,206 units BR & ER Lamps in US: 

# 194,971,406 units BR & ER Lamps in US: 

# 31,197,791 units

Residential wattages Wattages: Regulated lamps: 

# 103% Regulated lamps: 

# 104% Unregulated lamps: 

# 99% Unregulated lamps: 

# 93% Phase I aggregate wattage: 

# 101.5 Phase I aggregate wattage: 

# 104.3

PAR Lamps in US: 

# 105.0 Watts PAR Lamps in US: 

# 108.5 Watts BR & ER Lamps in US:



# US Outputs, .Canadian Weighting PAR Non-PAR Totals

Energy Consumption PAR Non-PAR Totals 

# 100.3 Watts

weighted

hours 

# 2,941 1,981 Res hours. 

# 885 885 C,I,OutHours 

# 3,538 3,538 BR & ER Lamps in US:

U;S; 

# Inventor 

# 120,281 ;871 226,169,197 346,451,068

. TotalQl.lads 

# 0.291 0.307 0.598 97.1 Watts

Average waUa e 

# 106.54 99.88 scaled to Canadian shipments

scaled to Canadian shipments

# Source: U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Volume I Report; September2002. Res Corn Ind Outdoor 

# number of lamps

Standard - General Service 3,653,336,297 244,924,428 1,500,938 12,342,790 Standard - Reflector 262,471,071 81,228,767 1,250,770 1,500,460 Halogen - General Service 18,088,688 756,562

- - Halogen - Quartz 14,219,165 17,496,038 167,447 2,180,560 Halogen - refl. - low volt

- 39,733,319 2,406

- 

# Average wattages

Standard - General Service 63 83 126 138 Standard - Reflector 102 104 102 103 Halogen - General Service 200 64

- - Halogen - Quartz 205 226 452 167 Halogen - ref I. - low volt

- 48 58

- 

# Average Annual Operating Hours

Standard - General Service 688 3,433 5,168 2,907 Standard - Reflector 885 3,534 4,892 2,631 Halogen - General Service 822 3,483

- - Halogen - Quartz 918 3,486 4,970 2,949 Halogen - refl. - low volt

- 3,757 4,536

- 

# Energy Consumed (TWh/yr

Standard - General Service 158.4 69.6 1.0 4.9 Standard - Reflector 23.6 30.0 0.6 0.4 Halogen - General Service 3.0 0.2

- - 

# Halogen - Quartz 2.7 13.8 0.4 1.1 Halogen - refl. - low volt

- 7.2 0.0

- Source: U.S. Ughting Market Characterization Volume I Report; September 2002.



# number of lamps

Standard

- General Service Standard

- Reflector Halogen

- General Service Halogen

- Quartz Halogen

- ref!.

- low volt 

# Average wattages

Standard

- General Service Standard

- Reflector Halogen

- General Service Halogen

- Quartz Halogen

- ref!.

- low volt 

# Average Annual.**Op~rating** 

# Hours

Standard: General Service Standard ':Reflector HalQge(1

-**Gene~al** 

# Servi.ce Hal()gen- Quartz Halogen-refl.- low\iolt Res Com



# 3,653,336,297

262,471,071·

18,088,688. 14,219,165

63 102 200 205 244,924,428 81,228,767 756,562 17,496,038 39,733,319

83 104

64 226

48

3,433 3,534 3,483 ·.3;486

3,757 Ind



# 1,500,938 1,250,770

167,447

2;406

126 102

452

58

4, 97 

# 0 4;536· Outdoor



# 12,342,790

1,500,460

2,180,560

138 103

167

2,907 2,631

2,949

## A-19 Lamp Types 60 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # Model Life (hrs) CRI Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear General Electric 60 A-19 120 Clear 39322 60A/CL 24 PK 1000 100 870 14.5 Philips 60 A-19 

## 120 Clear 201483 60AICL 1000 100 855 14.3 

## Osram Sylvania 60 A-19 120 Clear 10553 60A/CL 

## 1000 100 890 14.8 

## 14.5 2.1% 

## frost General Electric 60 A-19 120 Inside frost 22361 60AICOMM 1000 100 855 14.3 

## Philips 60 A-19 120 Frost 

## 374694 60A 1000 100 890 14.8 

## Osram Sylvania 60 A-19 120 Inside frost 

## 11214 60A/RP 1000 100 890 14.8 14.6 

## 1.3% other General Electric 60 A-19 

## 120 Standard 41026 60A 48PK 1000 100 865 14.4 General Electric 60 A-19 

## 120 Soft White 41028 60A/W 48 PK 1000 100 840 14.0 Philips 60 A-19 120 Frost, Extended Service 222455 60A/99 2500 100 800 13.3 13.9

75 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # Model Life (hrs) CRI Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear 

## General Electric 75 A-19 120 Clear 10428 75A/CL 24 PK 

## 750 100 1200 16.0 Philips 75 A-19 

## 120 Clear 366468 75A/CL 

## 750 100 1180 15.7 

## Osram Sylvania 75 A-19 120 Clear 12500 

## 75A/CL 750 100 1210 16.1 

## 16.0 1.1% frost General Electric 75 A-19 120 Inside frost 22364 75A/COMM 750 100 1180 15.7 

## Philips 75 A-19 120 Frost 374728 75A 

## 750 100 1220 16.3 

## Osram Sylvania 75 A-19 120 Inside frost 12525 75A/RP 750 100 1210 16.1 

## 16.0 0.6%

100 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lam p Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # Model 

## Life (hrs) CRI filaments Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear General Electric 100 A-19 120 Clear 39321 100A/CL 24 PK 750 100 CC8 1730 17.3 

## Philips 100 A-19 120 Clear 375279 100A/CL 750 100 CC8 1720 17.2 

## Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Clear 

## 10553 100A/CL 750 100 CC8 1750 17.5 17.3 1.0% 

## frost General Electric 100 A-19 120 Inside frost 22366 100AICOMM 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 Philips 100 A-19 120 Frost 

## 270868 100A 750 100 CC8 1650 

## 16.5 Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Inside frost 12735 100A/RP 750 100 CC8 1750 17.5 

## 17.0 3.1% soft w 

## General Electric 100 A-19 120 Soft White 

## 41036 100A/W 48 PK 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 Philips 100 A-19 120 Soft White 

## 374926 100A/W 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 

## Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Soft White 12770 100A/W/4/RP 

## 750 100 CC8 1710 17.1 17.0 

## 0.8% Other General Electric 100 A-19 120 Standard 41034 100A 48 PK 750 100 1710 17.1 

## Philips 100 A-19 120 Longer life Soft White 263822 100A/W L 950 100 1675 16.8 Philips 100 A-19 120 Frost , Extended Service 229799 100A/99 2500 100 1470 14.7 

## Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Double Life Soft White 12805 1 00A / D L S W / 2 P K/R P 1500 100 1580 15.8 16.1 

## A-19 Lamp Types

60 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue 

## # Model Life (hrs) CRI Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear General Electric 60 A-19 120 Clear 39322 60AlCL 24 PK 1000 100 870 14.5 Philips 60 A-19 120 Clear 201483 60AlCL 1000 100 855 14.3 Osram Sylvania 60 A-19 120 Clear 10553 60AlCL 1000 100 890 14.8 14.5 2.1% frost General Electric 60 A-19 120 Inside frost 22361 60AlCOMM 1000 100 855 14.3 Philips 60 A-19 120 Frost 374694 60A 1000 100 890 14.8 Osram Sylvania 60 A-19 120 Inside frost 11214 60AlRP 1000 100 890 14.8 14.6 1.3% other General Electric 60 A-19 120 Standard 41026 60A48PK 1000 100 865 14.4 General Electric 60 A-19 120 Soft White 41028 60AIW 48 PK 1000 100 840 14.0 Philips 60 A-19 120 Frost, Extended Service 222455 60Al99 2500 100 800 13.3 13.9

75 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue 

## # Model Life (hrs) CRI Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear General Electric 75 A-19 120 Clear 10428 75A1CL 24 PK 750 100 1200 16.0 Philips 75 A-19 120 Clear 366468 75A1CL 750 100 1180 15.7 Osram Sylvania 75 A-19 120 Clear 12500 75A1CL 750 100 1210 16.1 16.0 1.1% frost General Electric 75 A-19 120 Inside frost 22364 75A1COMM 750 100 1180 15.7 Philips 75 A-19 120 Frost 374728 75A 750 100 1220 16.3 Osram Sylvania 75 A-19 120 Inside frost 12525 75A1RP 750 100 1210 16.1 16.0 0.6%

100 Watt A-Line Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue 

## # Model Life (hrs) CRI filaments Initial Lumens Initial Efficacy Average % difference clear General Electric 100 A-19 120 Clear 39321 1 OOAlCL 24 PK 750 100 CC8 1730 17.3 Philips 100 A-19 120 Clear 375279 100AlCL 750 100 CC8 1720 17.2 Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Clear 10553 100AlCL 750 100 

# cca 1750 17.5 17.3 1.0% frost General Electric 100 A-19 120 Inside frost 22366 100AlCOMM 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 Philips 100 A-19 120 Frost 270868 100A 750 100 CC8 1650 16.5 Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Inside frost 12735 100AlRP 750 100 CC8 1750 17.5 17.0 3.1% softw General Electric 100 A-19 120 Soft White 41036 100AIW 48 PK 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 Philips 100 A-19 120 Soft White 374926 100AIW 750 100 CC8 1690 16.9 Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Soft White 12770 

## 100AIW/4/RP 750 100 CC8 1710 17.1 17.0 0.8% Othe r General Electric 100 A-19 120 Standard 41034 100A48 PK 750 100 1710 17.1 Philips 100 A-19 120 Longer life Soft White 263822 100AIWL 950 100 1675 16.8 Philips 100 A-19 120 Frost, Extended Service 229799 100Al99 2500 100 1470 14.7 Osram Sylvania 100 A-19 120 Double Life Soft White 12805 100AlDLSW 12PKlRP 1500 100 1580 15.8 16.1

## Reflector Lamps (PAR shape)

75 Watt PAR Incandescent Lam p Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # Model Life (hrs) CRI Efficacy Avg. Effica % difference General Electric PAR38 75 120 14748 75PAR/H/FL25° 2500 1030 13.7 Philips PAR-38 75 120 28784-7 75PAR38/HAUFL28/WLL 2500 1050 14.0 (Osram Sylvania PAR-38 75 120 14513 75PAR/CAP/SPUFL 2500 1040 13.9 13.9 1.0%

90 Watt PAR Incandescent Lam P Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # Model Life (hrs) CRI Efficacy Avg. Effica % difference General Electric PAR38 90 120 25727 90PAR/H/WFL 2500 1260 14.0 Philips PAR-38 90 120 23070-6 90PAR38/HAUFL28/LL 2500 1280 14.2 Osram Sylvania PAR-38 90 120 14579 90PAR/CAP/SPUFL 2500 1300 14.4 14.2 1.4% 

## Reflector Lamps (PAR shape)

75 Watt PAR Incandescent Lamp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue # 

## Model Life (hrs) CRI Efficacy Avg. Effica % difference General Electric PAR38 75 120 14748 75PAR/H/FL25' 2500 1030 13.7 Philips PAR-38 75 120 28784-7 75PAR38/HAUFL28IWLL 2500 1050 14.0 Osram Sylvania PAR-38 75 120 14513 75PAR/CAP/SPUFL 2500 1040 13.9 13.9 1.0%

90W PAR I att 

## d L ncan escent amp Brand Watts Size Volts Catalogue 

## # Model Life (hrs) CRI Efficacy Avg. Effica % difference General Electric PAR38 90 120 25727 90PARlHIWFL 2500 1260 14.0 

## Philips PAR-38 90 120 23070-6 90PAR38/HAUFL28/LL 2500 1280 14.2 Osram Sylvania PAR-38 90 120 14579 90PARICAP/SPUFL 2500 1300 14.4 14.2 1.4%

# ER/BR Lamps

Baseline: 12 Scenario 1: 14.2 Scenario 2: 18.5

Residential Sector LPW LPW LPW 

## Halogen Technology

HIR Technology 18% improvement 54% improvement

SCENARIO 1 Technology SCENARIO 2 Equipment Installed Hours Energy Savings Technology Energy Type Base / Stock Shipments , 2003 Wattage Use/Day Annual TWh AEC rauadsl Primary Potential Savings Potential ER 626,000 259,942 87.0 2.4 0.05 

### 0.001 0.0001 0.000 BR 133,972,000 60,755,906 68.8 2.4 8.08 0.089 0.0162 0.048 BPAR 4,839,000 1,963,858 135.9 2.4 0.58 

### 0.006 0.0012 0.003

Total 139,437,000 62,979,706 

### 8.70 0.095 0.078 0.044 Savings over Baseline in one year (Quads PEC) 0.0175 0.052 Cumulative savings over Baseline 2010-2035(Quads PEC) 0.42 

### 1.23



## Other Sectors SCENARIO 1 Technology SCENARIO 2 Equipment Installed Hours Energy Savings Technology Energy Type Base / Stock Shipments , 2003 Wattage Use/Day Annual TWh AEC rauadsl Primary Potential Savings Potential ER 896,000 1,585,235 87.0 9.7 

### 0.28 0.003 0.0006 0.002 BR 23,621,000 41,788,510 68.8 9.7 5.76 0.063 0.0116 0.034 BPAR 764,000 1,350,761 135.9 9.7 0.37 

### 0.004 0.0007 0.002

Total 25,281,000 44,724,506 

### 6.40 0.070 0.057 0.032 Savings over Baseline in one year (Quads PEC) 

### 0.0129 0.038 Cumulative savings over Baseline 2010-2035(Quads PEC) 

### 0.32 0.94



## ALL SECTORS Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 

## SCENARI O 1 Technol ogy SCENARIO 2 Equipment Installed Energy Sa vings Technoloav Enerav Type Base / Stock Shipments , 2003 Wattage AEC rauadsl Primary Potenti al Savings Potential ER 1,522,000 1,845,178 87.0 

# 0.004 0.0007 

# 0.002

BR 157,593,000 102,544,416 68.8 0.152 0.0278 

### 0.082 SPAR 5,603,000 3,314,619 135.9 0.010 0.0019 

# 0.006

Total 164,718,000 107,704,213 0.166 

### 0.135 0.076 Savings over Baseline in one year (Quads PEC) 0.0304 0.090 Cumulative savings over Baseline 2010-2035(Quads PEC) 0.741 2.17 3.212 Site to source conversion electricity to Quads PEC 292.997 Units conversion , Terawatt

- hrs per Quad 

### 2.28 Residential Shipment weighted life (2003) 0.57 Commercial Shipment weighted life (2003) 1.57 Weighted Average lifetime 25 Years between 2010 and 2035 

### 91.7 Average Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr) 

# ERiSR 

# Lamps

Baseline: Scenario 1: Scenario 2: 12 14.2 18.5



## Residential Sector

Eguiement Installed



# Im!t. BaselStock

ER 626,000 BR 133,972,000 BPAR 4,839,000 Total 139,437,000



## Other Sectors

Eguiement Installed



# Im!t. Base/Stock

ER 896,000 BR 23,621,000 BPAR 764,000 Total 25,281,000



# ALL SECTORS

Eguiement Installed



# Im!t. Base/Stock

ER 1,522,000 BR 157,593,000 BPAR 5,603,000 Total 164,718,000 LPW LPW LPW 

## Halogen Technology HIR Technology 18% improvement 54% improvement

Shiements, 2003 259,942 60,755,906 1,963,858 62,979,706



## Siliements, 2003 1,585,235 41,788,510

1,350,761 44,724,506



## Shiements, 2003 1,845,178 102,544,416

3,314,619 107,704,213 

## Wattage

87.0 68.8 135.9



## Wattage

87.0 68.8 135.9

87.0 68.8 135.9 

## Hours Use/Dall

2.4 2.4 2.4



## Hours Use/Dall

9.7 9.7 9.7

3.212 Site to source conversion electricity to Quads PEC 292.997 Units conversion, Terawatt-hrs per Quad

2.28 Residential Shipment weighted life (2003) 0.57 Commercial Shipment weighted life (2003) 1.57 Weighted Average lifetime

25 Years between 2010 and 2035 

## 91.7 Average Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr) 

## AnnualTWh

AnnualTWh 0.05 8.08 0.58 8.70

0.28 5.76 0.37 6.40 

## AEC [guads] Prima[ll

0.001 0.089 0.006 0.095 Savings over Baseline In one year (Quads PEC) Cumulative savings over Baseline 201 0'2035(Quads PEG)



## AEC [guads] Prima[ll

0.003 0.063 0.004 0.070 Savings over Baseline In 

### one year (Quads PEC) Cumulative savings over Baseline 201 0-2035(Quads PEG)



### Baseline



## AEC [guads] Prima[ll

0.004 0.152 0.010 0.166 Savings over Baseline In one year (Quads PEC) Cumulative savings over Baseline 201 0·2035(Quads PEC) 

## SCENARIO 1 Technologll Energll Savings Potential

0.0001 0.0162 0.0012 0.078 0.0175

0.42



## SCENARIO 1 Technologll Energll Savings Potential

0.0006 0.0116 0.0007 0.057 0.0129

0.32

Scenario 1 

## SCENARIO 1 Technologll Energll Savings Potential

0.0007 0.0278 0.0019 0.135 0.0304

0.74 

## SCENARIO 2 TechnoloQY EnerQY

SaYings Potential

0.000 0.048 0.003 0.044 0.052

1.23



## SCENARIO 2 TechnoloavEnerQY Savings Potential

Scenario 2 0.002 0.034 0.002 0.032 0.038

0.94



## SCENARIO 2 Technoloav EnerQY Savings Potential

0.002 0.082 0.006 0.076 0.090

2.17.-'He Motor, , 1-205HP , Indunrlel. See 516¢1241114

, file roe loading estimate calcaatl0a. 750 T.M. AS-1 Line I Celeulaticn

Installed base Orr 2002 Number .1 Ind-del Mor95 (Re16)

Yr 1990 7,306080 3,488,035 1.129 ,527 363,940 220,908 Taal v, 00.490 ISO Tabia 55- 1 Line 2 Calculelion Source: Motors and Generators: 2002 US Census Oaeau Mai Issued 5002512003 , M4335H102)-1

Nur Spped Ai me irewion moors , Irritating Erle1O7 Efficient, 05011 i005100170rous

HP Year 2002 Year 2001 1105 897,361 968.959 51,20 427722 497,496 201050 126,045 145,650 501o100 45 ,044 48924 10010200 29

, 770 23,981 Taal 1, 526,142 105.010 Allstate] ,aneeal Inbrmelial Iran CENSUS-2002 ( rot used in ar7 o atalkliens in report): None IIUr the delnai0n 0f erorgy etlclent used 9y CENSUS2002 does rte c0re5padwilh arty aher stamkrd defiel0i0n 0rerergy eMcieama0s

. his Eased On etfi c leruy SlaMartls Oan the 1987 versl

. n NE2M MG-i

. The EPActand NEAR PremistS018 ierwy .1834,145 are b01M1 subslamiallydi8erea than That used by CENSUS

- 2002, which makes the CENSUS

- 2002 tlam on erorgyeMCient mdors impossiae to use.

Era, efficient paypila51 induction mans, ercWdinS syncM9mu6

HP 716/2002 Yea12001 1105 94,352 130,876 51020 115 , 461 167,250 201050 78,976 71.630 5o10100 44, 601 25,465 1961.200 29 ,270 16.742 Taa 363,160 411,963

Energy 780111 mans ( pememaoa p00611 110,1, bycale0ory)

HP Year2002 Yeer2001 1105 10.5 13.S 51020 27.0 33.6 201050 62.7 492 501.100 99.0 52.1 10010200 1004 69.6

408107 ellciem molds ( perceaa97 penetration , all 021120115 lhp2001p) 23.8 24.4

750 Table lG-1 IIr.4 CMculetlas 1994 Induat,el motors AEC (kWh) Source Mentis67 Eapana,0 Manta Eap 679 10409 6.794.11 OIT 2002, p.1 Fmction41 moor sire energy used by 1.200 hp am Off 2002, P.40 0.561 1 0.561 1994 Ind redo, 1.200M1p AEC (kWh) 381 1

. 000009 3.010.11

1994 Ind ma051.200Ep AEC (quads) '593'695'

4.19E+00 'C81.110OOt1E15'

Supporting caicuIMlena for150 T.blm 0X

- 7,145.41 through AS-A4. Elficiencystaaked5 roe pas ( 1800 RPM ,) ODP mesas IEPAct-1992) HP EPACT NEMA PREM

825 85.5 5 875 895 20 91 93 50 93 945 100 94.1 95.4 200 95 955 Ellcieroy standard,1014 pas ( 1600 RPM, ) ODP maps

Fran the 1054001 ( HP, 10010nc7 ) pairs 000061.9 (111P , 82.5%) 406 (SHP. 875% )). we calcaae merales Or the Inge 1601

- SHP class is represented by (311P, 85% ) par found by averagilg boundary Mill. HP EPACT( 4) NEMAPREM (5) HPAVG 105 675 3 51020 89.5 25 9125 12.5 201050 92 93.75 35 50 1.100 93

. 55 94.95 75 10010200 94.55 95.6 150

5001ce: 0172002, Taae SIC 20.39, O.eeall ManuhcNlrg , P. 62. 'w'" ennansts, Mai HP OPieurs ( 1) LOa5ieg ( 2) Delault EB . ( 3) EPACTeg ( ran 4 ) NEMAPrem ( 1,0185) 1105 2745 0

. 566 02 85 875 51020 3391 0.517 86.5 89

. 25 91.25 201050 4067 0571 90 92 93.75 5010100 $329 0.522 91.5 93

. 55 94.95 100(0200 5200 0461 92.5 94.55 95.6

(1) OrE 2002, p. B-2 (2) SRC: Eeleae4 load calculation (roll sheet 2 701611

- 200HP (3) SRC: OM 2002, Table 2.10.0.65,1000 RPM, midrange value taken ( le, this table is vary fila0ralrod, l-(.SHP, 1.5.2HP, act. We poked an eflcierwyin the middle a arrHP mrges. (4) See caanns 878-082, '..led (4) ab640 (5) See caumns d e C82. labeled (5) 00,1.0 (6) OM 2002, p. R-2 uEC DEFAULT UEC =PACT UEC NEMA Number Of Was (6) AEC DEFAULT AEC =PACT AECNEMAP HP EPACT Savings NEMAPSavings Bero51 ( MWh) 6eeefi1(quads ) Benefit 2010

. 2035 ( 00) Benefit 2010

. 2035 ( quads) 424E+03 1.890.04 4.090003

1.834004 3.97E. o3

1.794.04 7,306580

3,288535 3.104010 6.210410 2994010

6.02 = 010 2.904.10

5.690410 1105 51,20 1.09E+09

191E+09 1950409

3230409 8.544.08

1.324009 05094 05145 1598010 2.31E+10 0.1644 02541 6.74E + 04 6590004 647E+04 1,129527 7.1.10 7A4Et10 7310010 201050 1.65409 524E009 1.39=009 00153 2430010 02675 1.70405 4.16405 1.660

. 05

4570405 1.640405

4.02=005 363.940 220.908 6.194.10 9.194.10 6

. 054010

8.99E + 10 5.970410

8.690010 5000100

10010200 1.365

. 09

1

. 990009 2250009

2584009 833406 9.870400 05098 0.0109 1.56=.10 0.73=010 0.1719 0.1900

. . 76E.05 6.51405 6.530.05 1.20E+0T 020411 0.154

. 11 610E+11 Total l-200HP 6.015.00 1.055010 0,64400 05599 9.530.10 Comes ana , e Ioquadslo 5anirycheck. W94shald eg0rcdnnn Nequal 796.

1.05400) Electtlc Motor:s,,-200HP, rndustrlal. See sheel 2 oflhis file for loading estimale calcutatiOOS.

TSO TobIe AS-l Uno 1 Calculotlon Inslalledbase

orr 2002 Number of Industrial Motors (Ref6) Yr1998 7,306,080 3,288,035 1,129,527 363,940 220,908 TOIal 12,308,490

TSO Tabla 

## AS-' Llna 2 Cah::ulallon Soorce:MoI.o<'sandGenerators:2002 US Census Bureau report, Issued August 2003, Mr\335H(02)'1 Numbershlpped AU polyphase IndUC1ioomolors,lnelllding EnergyElficlent,exc;llldingsyochrooous HP Year 2002 Year 2001 1105 897,361 968,959 51020 427,922 497,496 201050 126,045 145,650 5010100 45,044 48.924 10010200 29.nO 23,961

Tolal 1,526,142 1.685,010

Additional genera! Infoonatioo from CENSU5-2002 (not used in any calculations In report): NOIe InaT the defill!tion of energy efficient used by CENSUS.2002 does IlOI correspond with any other standard definition of energy efficient motors. If Is based on effiCiency standards 1rom the 1987 version NBM MG·!, The EPAct and NEMA. PremIum efficiency standards are both subslantiallydi/ferent than thaI used**byCENSUS-20o;~,** which makes the C8'oISUS.2002 dala on energyeflicienl motors impossible to use. Energyeflicienl polyphase induction molors,excfudingsyochrooous HP Year 2002 Year2001 1105 94,352 130,876 5T020 115,461 167,250 201050 76,976 71,630 5010100 44,601 25,-465 10010200 29,nO 16,742

ToIa! 363,160 411,963

Energy efficient motors (percenlage penetration,bycalegexy) HP Year 2002 Year2001 1105 10.5 13.5 51020 27.0 33.6 201050 62.7 49.2 5010100 99.0 52.1 10010200 100.0 69.6 Energy efficient molors (percenlage penetratioo, a1t categories lhp-200hp)

TSO Tabl. AS-l IIna4 Calculat!em 1994Indu$trlal motor:s AEC (kWh) MantlS!.la Expon8l1t MantxExp 23.8 24.4

679 1.00E

.. 09 6.79E

.. l1

Fraction of molorsys energy used by 1·200 hpmOlors

0.561 1 0.561

1994 Iodmolors 1·200hpAEC (kWh) 381 1.00E+09 3.61E

.. t1 1994Iodmolors1-200hpAEC{quads) 4.19E+00 Soureu orr2002,p.l OIT2002,p.40

'A93'B93"

'C81-!100011E15- Supporting <::alculatlcns forTSO Tables 16-7, AS-Allhrough AS-M. Elficiencystandards for 4 pole (1800 RPMS) OOP motors (EPAct-1992) HP EPACT NEMA PREM 1 82.5 65.5 5 67.5 69.5 20 91 93 50 93 94.5 100 94.1 95.4 200 95 95.6 Efficiency slandards for 4 pole (1BOO APMS) OOP motors

From the Individual (HP, efficiency) pairs above leg (IHP, 62.5%) and (5HP, 87.5%)). we calculale averaoes for II\e range leo 1-5HPclasSlsrepresented by(3HP,65%) pa!r found by averaging boundary paIr). HP EPACT (4) NBM PAEM (5) HP AVG 1105 65 67.5 3 51020 89.25 91.25 12.5 201050 92 93.75 35 50 to 100 93.55 94.95 75 10010200 94.55 95.6

Source: OIT 2002, Table SIC 20·39. Overall Manufacturing, p. 62. unless oIherwlse noted HP Ophours(l) Loading (2) Oefault E/f. (3) EPACT eft (from 4) NBM Prem (from 5) 1105 2745 0.566 

# " 85 

# ,,. 51020 3391 0.517 66.5 89.25 91.25 201050 '067 0.571 90 92 93.75 5010100 5329 0.522 91.5 93.55 94.95 10010200 5200 0.661 92.5 94.55 95.6

(1) Orr2002,p. B·2 (2) SAC: &pected load calculation from sheet 2 TotaI1-2GOHP

(3) SRC: orr 2002, Table 2-10. p. 65, 1800 RPM, midrange value laken (Ie. this lable is very finegralned, H.5HP, 1.5·2HP, elc), We picked an efficiency in lhe mIddle of OIJI'HP ranges. (4) See columns B7l1-B62,Jabeled (4) above (5) See columns C7I1-C62, labeled (5) above (6) OIT 2002,p. B-2 UECOEFAULT UECEPACT UEC NEtM Number of Motors (6) AECOEFAULT AEC EPACT 4.24E

.. 03 4.091:+03 3.97E

.. 

### oa 7,306,080 3.10E+l0 2.99E

.. ,0 1.89E+04 1.83E

.. 04 1.79E

.. 04 3.286.035 6,21E+l0 6.02E

.. l0 6.14E+04 6.59Et04 6,47E

.. 04 1,129,527 7.61E+l0 7.44E+l0 1,70E

.. 05 1.66E

.. 05 1.64E

.. 05 363.940 6.19E+l0 6.05E

.. l0 4.16E+05 4.07E+05 4.02E+05 220.906 9.19E"'0 8.99E

.. l0

6.76E,,05 6.61E+05 1.23E+07 3.23E+11 3.16E+11 AECNEWAP HP EPACT Savings NEMA.P Savings 2.90E

.. 1O 1105 1,09E

.. 09 1.95E

.. 09 5.69E+l0 51020 1.91E

.. 09 3.23E

.. 09 7.31E+l0 201050 1.65E

.. 09 3.04E

.. 09 5.971:+10 5010100 1.36E

.. 09 2.25E+09 8.89E+l0 10010200 1.59E+09 2.98E+09

3,10E+11 Tota11_200HP 1.35E+l0 Bencfit(kWh) 8.54E

.. 08 1.32E+09 1.39E+09 8.93E

.. 08 9.67E

.. 08

5,44E+09 8enefil(quads) 0.0094 0.Q145 0.0153 0.0098 0.0109 8enefil 2QtO-2035 (kWh) 1.49E

.. l0 2.31E+l0 2.43E

.. l0 I.SSE+l0 1.73E+l0

0.0599 9.53E+l0 Convenaboveloquadsfor sanilyclle1:k.W94shouid**a~matelyequal** V96. 1.05E

.. 00 Benefit 2010·2035 (quads) 0.1644 02541 02675 0.1719 0.1900

# Electric Motors , 1-200HP , Industrial.

This is sheet 2 of the Industrial calculations file. This sheet contains loading estimate calculations. See sheet 1 for main industrial calculations. Loading calculation: find expected value of load given load 'distribution' data from OIT 2002. These expected loading values are used in Sheet 1 of this file for the Industrial Motors UEC/AEC calculation. Data from Table 1-19, Loading by Horsepower , of OIT 2002, p. 46: Loading HP Category

1 to 5 HP 6 to 20 HP 21 to 50 HP 51 to 100 HP 101 to 200 HP 200+ HP 40%" 42 48 39 45 24 40 "40 to 120® 54 51 60 54 75 58 "> 120%" 4 1 1 0 1 2 Total (%) 100 100 100 99 100 100 The entries in the table represent the population (percentage) of motors in the size class (column) with a particular loading level, specified as a percent of rated load. Assumptions: 1. Distribution of loading is uniform within class ...ie, p(load) is uniform in 0-40% loading class, 40-120% class 2. The > 120% class is not populated beyond 130 Breaks in probability distribution: 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 120 120 120 120 120 120 130 130 130 130 130 130

Probability to find a particular load value. HP Category 1 to 5 HP 6 to 20 HP 21 to 50 HP 51 to 100 HP 101 to 200 HP 200+ HP "0 to 40%" 0.0105 0.012 0.00975 0.01125 0.006 0.01 "40 to 120° 0.00675 0.006375 0.0075 0.00675 0.009375 0.00725 "120 to 13C 0.004 0.001 0.001 0 0.001 0.002

Normalization (check) 1 1 1 0.99 1 1

Expected value of load (integral p(x)*x). These values are used in sheet 1. Units: percentage

56.6 51.7 57.1 52.2 66.1 56.9 Average across all size classes: 56.7 Electric Motors, 1-200HP, Industrial. 

# This is sheet 2 of the Industrial calculations file. This sheet contains loading estimate calculations. See sheet 1 for main industrial calculations. Loading calculation: find expected value of load given load 'distribution' data from OIT 

# 2002. These expected loading values are used in Sheet 1 

# of this file for the Industrial Motors UEC/AEC calculation.

Data from Table 

# 1-19, Loading by Horsepower, of OIT 

# 2002, p. 

# 46: Loading HP Category 

# 1 to 

# 5 HP 

# 6 to 

# 20 HP 

# 21 to 

# 50 HP 

# 51 to 

# 100 HP 

# 101 to 

# 200 HP 

# 200+ HP "< 

# 40%" 42 48 39 45 24 40 "40 to**120~** 

# 54 51 60 54 75 58 "> 

# 120%" 4 1 1 0 1 2 Total 

# (%) 100 100 100 99 100 100 The entries in the table represent the population (percentage) of motors in the size class (column) with a particular loading level, specified as a percent of rated load.
Assumptions: 

# 1. Distribution of loading is uniform within class

.. .ie, p(load) is uniform in 

# 0-40% loading class, 

# 40-120% class 

# 2. The> 

# 120% class is not populated beyond 

# 130

Breaks in probability distribution: 

# 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 120 120 120 120 130 130 130 130

Probability to find a particular load value. HP Category 

# 1 to 

# 5 HP 

# 6 to 

# 20 HP 

# 21 to 

# 50 HP 

# 51 to 

# 100 HP 

# "0 to 

# 40%" "40 to**120~** 

# "120 to 

# 13C 0.Q1 05 0.012 0.00975 0.01125 0.00675 0.006375 0.0075 0.00675 0.004 0.001 0.001 0

Normalization (check) 1 

# 0.99 0 0 40 40 120 120 130 130

101 to 

# 200 HP 

# 200+ HP 

# 0.006 0.01 0.009375 0.00725 0.001 0.002

Expected value of load (integral p(x)*x). These values are used in sheet 1. Units: percentage 

# 56.6 51.7 57.1 52.2 66.1 56.9 Average across all size classes: 

# 56.7

# Pool H eaters (gas)

(Efficiency improvement Level electronic ignition

Discount rate l 7% 

# Discount to year 2003

Product lifetime ( to nearest y ear) 15 

# NES (quads)

NPV (billion $) 0.29

$0.40 

# Pool Heaters (gas)

1 

# Efficiency Improvement Level electronic ignition NES (quads) 

# 0.291

1 

# Discount rate NPV (billion $) 

# $0.401 

# 1 Discount to year 

# 20()S3

1 Product lifetime (to nearest year) 

# 151

## Pool Heater Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC 

### Effic Improv

. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings Base Operating

Cost Effic.

Improv

. Operating Cost Annual

Friel Cost Savings 

### PVAnnual

Fuel Cost Savings PV

Cumulative Friel Cost Savings Delta Unit

Price Total

Incremental Equip

. Cost PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost PV

Cumulative Equip

. Cost Net

Cumulative PV Million million MMBTU/vr MMBTU/vr goods rods mods mods billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ 2001 0.20 2.41 31 31 0. 080 0.080 $ 0 .70 $ 0.70 2002 0.21 2.49 31 31 0.082 0.082 $ 0.58 S 0.58 2003 0.21 2.56 31 31 0.085 0.085 S 0.71 $ 0.71 2004 0.21 2.64 31 31 0.087 0.087 $ 0.71 $ 0.71 2005 0.21 2,71 31 31 0.090 0.090 $ 0.69 S 0.69 2006 0.21 2.77 31 31 0.092 0.092 $ 0.69 $ 0.69 2007 0.21 2.83 31 31 0.094 0.094 $ 0.70 $ 0.70 2008 0.21 2.88 31 31 0.096 0.096 $ 0.71 S 0.71 2009 0.21 2.93 31 31 0.097 0.097 $ 0.70 $ 0.70 2010 0,21 2.97 31 26 0.098 0.097 0.001 0.001 $ 0.69 S 0.69 S 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 120 $ (0.02) S (0.02) $ (0.02) $ (0.01) 2011 0.21 3.00 31 26 0.099 0.097 0.002 0.003 $ 0.71 8 0.70 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 120 $ (0.02) 5 (0.01) $ (0.03) 5 (0.02) 2012 0.21 3.03 31 26 0.100 0.097 0.003 0.006 5 0.73 5 0.71 $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 120 5 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.04) 5 (0.02) 2013 0.21 3.05 31 26 0.101 0.097 0.004 0.010 $ 0.75 $ 0.72 $ 0.03 $ 0.02 $ 0.04 $ 120 $ (0.02) 5 ( 0.01) $ (0 .06) $ (0.02) 2014 0.21 3.06 31 26 0.102 0.097 0.005 0.015 5 0.77 $ 0.73 $ 0.04 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 $ 120 $ (0.02) 0 (0.01 ) $ (0.07) $ (0.01) 2015 0.21 3.07 31 26 0.102 0.096 0.006 0.021 5 0.78 $ 0.73 $ 0.05 $ 0.02 S 0.08 S 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.08) $ 0.00 2016 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.095 0.007 0.028 S 0.78 $ 0.73 5 0.05 5 0 .02 $ 0.10 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.09) $ 0.01 2017 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.094 0.008 0.036 $ 0.78 $ 0.72 $ 0.06 $ 0.02 $ 0.12 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.10) $ 0.03 2018 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.093 0.009 0.045 $ 0.78 $ 0 .71 $ 0.07 5 0. 02 $ 0 .15 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) 5 (0.11) $ 0.04 2019 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.092 0.010 0.055 $ 0.77 $ 0.69 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 $ 0.17 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.12) $ 0.06 2020 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.091 0.011 0.066 $ 0.77 $ 0.69 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 $ 0.20 $ 120 $ (0.02) 5 (0.01) $ (0.12) $ 0,08 2021 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.090 0.012 0.078 $ 0.79 $ 0.70 $ 0.09 $ 0.03 $ 0.23 5 120 $ (0.02) 5 (0.01 ) 5 (0.13) $ 0.10 2022 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.089 0.013 0.091 $ 0.79 $ 0.69 8 0.10 $ 0.03 $ 0.26 $ 120 $ ( 0.02) $ (0 .01) $ (0.14) S 0.12 2023 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.088 0.014 0 .105 $ 0.79 S 0.68 $ 0.11 $ 0.03 $ 0.28 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) 5 (0.14) 5 0.14 2024 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.120 $ 0.79 $ 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.31 $ 120 8 (0.02) 0 (0.01) $ (0.15) $ 0.16 2025 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.136 $ 0.78 $ 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.03 $ 0.34 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ ( 0.15) 8 0.18 2026 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.151 $ 0.78 S 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.36 S 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.16) 8 0.20 2027 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.166 $ 0.78 S 0.67 S 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.39 $ 120 $ (0.02) S (0.00 ) $ (0.16) 5 0.22 2028 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0 .181 $ 0 .78 0 0.67 0 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.41 $ 120 S (0.02) $ (0.00 ) $ (0.17) S 0.24 2029 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.196 5 0.78 S 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.43 $ 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.17) 9 0.25 2030 021 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.211 $ 0.79 S 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.45 $ 120 $ (0.02) 8 (0.00) $ (0.18) 1% 0.27 2031 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0 .015 0.226 $ 0.79 $ 0.67 8 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.46 S 120 $ (0.02) 5 (0.00 ) 5 (0.18) S 0.28 2032 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0 .241 $ 0.79 S 0.67 5 0.12 5 0.02 $ 0.48 S 120 $ (0.02) 8 (0.00) 5 (0.18) $ 0.30 2033 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.256 $ 0.79 $ 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.02 $ 0.50 S 120 $ (0.02) 8 (0.00) $ (0.19) $ 0.31 2034 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.271 $ 0.79 $ 0.67 S 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0.51 S 120 $ (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.19) 5 0.32 2035 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0. 087 0 .015 0.286 1 0.79 S 0.67 $ 0.12 $ 0.01 $ 0.52 $ 120 $ (0.02) 5 (0.00) 5 (0.19) S 0.33 2036 0 2.87 31 26 0.095 0. 081 0.014 0.300 $ 0.73 S 0.63 5 0.11 $ 0.01 $ 0.53 $ (0.19) 5 0.34 2037 0 2.67 31 26 0. 088 0.075 0 .013 0.313 $ 0.68 $ 0

. 58 $ 0.10 $ 0.01 $ 0.54 $ (0.19) $ 0.35 2038 0 2.46 31 26 0.082 0.070 0 .012 0.325 $ 0.63 $ 0.54 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 5 0.55 $ (0.19) $ 0.36 2039 0 2.26 31 26 0.075 0.064 0.011 0.336 $ 0.58 $ 0.49 $ 0.09 $ 0.01 $ 0.56 $ (0.19) 8 0.37 2040 0 2.05 31 26 0.068 0.058 0.010 0.346 $ 0.53 $ 0.45 $ 0.08 5 0.01 S 0.57 $ (0.19) 5 0.37 2041 0 1.85 31 26 0.061 0.052 0.009 0 .355 S 0.47 S 0.40 S 0.07 S 0.01 5 0.57 $ (0.19) $ 0.38 2042 0 1.64 31 26 0.054 0,046 0.008 0.364 $ 0.42 $ 0.36 $ 0.06 $ 0.00 $ 0.58 $ (0.19) $ 0.38 2043 0 144 31 26 0.048 0.041 0.007 0.371 $ 0.37 $ 0.31 $ 0.05 $ 0.00 $ 0.58 $ (0.19) $ 0.39 2044 0 1.23 31 26 0.041 0.035 0.006 0.377 $ 0.32 $ 0.27 $ 0. 05 $ 0.00 $ 0.58 $ (0.19) 1 0.39 2045 0 1.03 31 26 0.034 0.029 0.005 0.382 $ 0.26 5 0.22 $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.59 $ (0.19) $ 0.39 2046 0 0.82 31 26 0.027 0.023 0,004 0.386 $ 0.21 S 0.18 $ 0.03 5 0.00 $ 0.59 $ (0.19) S 0.39 2047 0 0.62 31 26 0.020 0.017 0,003 0.389 $ 0.16 $ 0.13 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.59 $ (0.19) S 0.39 2048 0 0.41 31 26 0.014 0.012 0.002 0.391 S 0.11 $ 0.09 S 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.59 $ (0.19) 5 0.40 2049 0 0.21 31 26 0.007 0.006 0.001 0.392 S 0,05 5 0.04 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.59 $ (0.19 $ 0.40 2050 0 0.00 31 26 0. 000 0.000 0 .000 0.392 $ $ - $ - $ - $ 0.59 $ (0.19) 5 0.40 2051 0 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 S - $ - S - $ - $ 0.59 $ (0.19) $ 0.40 2052 0 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.59 $ (0.19) $ 0.40 2053 0 0.00 31 26 0.000 0 .000 0.000 0 .392 8 - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.59 5 (0.19) $ 0.40 2054 0 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.59 $ (0.19) 1% 0.40 2055 0 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 039 2 S $ $ S $ 0.59 $ (0.19) S 0.40 

# Pool Heater Shipments and Stock

Effie New Surviving 

### Improv. Base Total Year 

### Shipment Units Base VEC VEC Ellergy 

### Effie 111lprov. Total Ellergy 

### million millioJl MMBTU/YT MMBTU/vr uads /lads 2001 0.20 2.41 31 31 0.080 0.080 

### AIJ1Jl1al Ellergy 

### Savings /lads 

## Cumulative Energy 

## Savings ltads 

### Effie. 

## Improv. Base Operating Operating 

### Cost Cost billion 

### $ billion 

### $ $ 

### 0.70 $ 

### 0.70 2002 0.21 2.49 31 31 0.082 0.082 0.58 0.58 2003 0.21 2.56 31 31 0.085 0.085 0.71 0.71 2004 0.21 2.64 31 31 0.087 0.087 

### 0.11 0.71 2005 0.21 2.71 31 31 0.090 0.090 0.69 0.69 2006 0.21 2.77 31 31 0.092 0.092 0.69 0.69 

### 2007 0.21 2.83 31 31 0.094 0.094 0.70 0.70 2008 0.21 2.88 31 31 0.096 0.096 0.71 0.71 2009 0.21 2.93 31 31 0.097 0.097 0.70 0.70 

### PV Anllual PV Annual CUlllulative 

### Total PVTotal PV 

## Net Fllel Cost Fuel Cost Fuel Cost 

### Delta U"i( Incremental Incremental Cumulative Cumulative Sav;lJgs Savings Savings 

### Price Equip. Cost EqUip Cost Equip. Cost PV 

### billioll $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $

2010 0.21 2.97 31 26 0.098 0.097 0.001 0.001 0.69 0.69 0.01 0.00 0.00 120 (0.02) $ (0.02) $ (0.02) $ (0.01) 2011 0.21 3.00 31 26 0.099 0.097 0.002 0.003 $ 0.71 0.70 0.Ql 0.Ql 0.01 120 (0.02) S (O.Ol) $ (0.03) $ (0.02) 2012 0.21 3.03 31 26 0.100 0.097 0.003 0.006 $ 0.73 0.71 0.02 0.01 0.02 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.04) S (0.02) 2013 0.21 3.05 31 26 0.101 0.097 0.004 0.010 $ 0.75 0.72 0.03 0.02 0.04 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.06) $ (0.02) 2014 0.21 3.06 31 26 0.102 0.097 0.005 0.Ql5 $ 0.77 0.73 0.04 0.02 0.06 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.07) $ (0.01) 2015 0.21 3.07 31 26 0.102 0.096 0.006 0.021 $ 0.78 0.73 0.05 0.02 0.08 120 (O.02) $ (0.0l) $ (0.08) $ 0.00 2016 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.095 0.007 0.028 $ 0.78 0.73 0.05 0.02 0.10 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.09) $ 0.Ql 2017 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.094 0.008 0.036 $ 0.78 0.72 0.06 0.02 0.12 120 (0.02) $ (D.0l) $ (D.lO) $ 0.03 2018 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.093 0.009 0.045 $ 0.78 0.71 0.07 0.02 0.15 120 (0.02) $ (0.0l) $ (0.11) $ 0.04 

### 2019 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.092 0.010 0.055 $ 

### 0.77 0.69 0.08 0.03 0.17 120 (0.02) $ 

### (0.01) $ 

### (0.12) $ 

### 0.06 2020 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.091 0.011 0.066 $ 0.77 0.69 0.08 0.03 0.20 120 (D.02) S (0.01) S <0.12) $ 0.08 2021 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.090 0.012 0.078 $ 0.79 0.70 0.09 0.03 0.23 120 (0.02) S (0.01) $ (0.13) $ 0.10 2022 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.089 0.013 0.091 S 0.79 0.69 0.10 0.03 0.26 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (O.l4) S 0.12 2023 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.088 0.014 0.105 $ 0.79 0.68 0.11 0.Q3 0.28 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.14) $ 0.14 2024 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.Ql5 0.120 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.Q3 0.31 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) S (0.15) $ 0.16 2025 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.Ql5 0.136 $ 0.78 0.67 0.12 0.03 0.34 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (D.l5) $ 0.18 2026 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.Ql5 0.151 $ 0.78 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.36 120 (0.02) $ (0.01) $ (0.16) S 0.20 2027 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.166 $ 0.78 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.39 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) S (0.16) $ 0.22 2028 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.181 $ 0.78 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.41 120 (0.02) S (0.00) S (0.17) $ 0.24 2029 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.196 $ 0.78 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.43 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.17) .$ 0.25 2030 0.21 3.0& 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.Ql5 0.211 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.45 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.18) S 0.27 2031 0.21 3.0& 31 26 0.lD2 0.087 0.Ql5 0.226 S 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.02 OA6 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) S (0.18) $ 0.28 2032 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.241 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.4& 120 (0.02) S (0.00) $ (0.18) $ 0.30 2033 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.0&7 0.DI5 0.256 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.02 0.50 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.19) .$ 0.31 2034 0.21 3.08 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.015 0.271 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.01 0.51 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.19) S 0.32 2035 0.21 3.0& 31 26 0.102 0.087 0.DI5 0.286 $ 0.79 0.67 0.12 0.01 0.52 $ 120 (0.02) $ (0.00) $ (0.19) S 0.33 2036 2.87 31 26 0.095 0.081 0.014 0.300 $ 0.73 0.63 0.11 0.01 0.53 $ (0.19) $ 0.34 

### 2037 2.67 31 26 0.088 0.075 0.013 0.313 $ 

### 0.68 0.58 0.10 O.oI 0.54 (0.19) 5 0.35 2038 2.46 31 26 0.082 0.070 0.012 0.325 $ 0.63 0.54 0.09 0.01 0.55 (0.19) $ 0.36 2039 2.26 31 26 0.075 0.064 0.011 0.336 $ 0.58 OA9 0.09 0.01 0.56 (0.19) .$ 0.37 2040 2.05 31 26 0.068 0.058 O.OlD 0.346 S 0.53 OA5 0.08 0.01 0.57 (0.19) .$ 0.37 2041 1.85 31 26 0.061 0.052 0.009 0.355 S 0.47 0.40 0.07 0.01 0.57 (0.19) $ 0.38 2042 1.64 31 26 0.054 0.046 0.008 0.364 .$ 0.42 0.36 0.06 0.00 0.58 (0.19) $ 0.38 

### 2043 1.44 31 26 0.048 0.041 0.007 0.371 $ 

### 0.37 0.31 0.05 0.00 0.58 (0.19) $ 

### 0.39 2044 1.23 31 26 0.041 0.035 0.006 0.377 $ 0.32 0.27 0.05 0.00 0.58 (0.19) $ 0.39 2045 1.03 31 26 0.034 0.029 0.005 0.382 $ 0.26 $ 0.22 0.04 0.00 0.59 (0.19) S 0.39 2046 0.82 31 26 0.027 0.023 0.004 0.386 $ 0.21 0.18 0.03 0.00 0.59 (0.19) .$ 0.39 2047 0.62 31 26 0.020 0.017 0.003 0.389 $ 0.16 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.59 <0.19) $ 0.39 

### 2048 0.41 31 26 0.014 0.012 0.002 0.39( $ 

### O.ll 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.59 (0.19) $ 

### 0.40 2049 0.21 31 26 0.007 0.006 0.001 0.392 .$ 0,05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.59 (0.19) $ OAO 2050 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 S 0.59 (0.19) S OAO 2051 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 S 0.59 (0.19) .$ OAO 2052 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 $ 0.59 (0.19) S OAO 2053 0.00 31 26 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.392 $ 0.59 (0.19) S OAO

# ~~;L_ I

____

# ~ ____

# ~~:~:~ ____

# ~~~:L_ 

# ____**~~~~** 

# ____**~~~:~~** 

# ____**~~:~~~~~~:~~O~J_** 

# __**~~~:~~:d~~:~** 

# ____**~~~** 

# ____**~~** 

# ____**~~** 

# __**~~~** 

# ____**~~:~~:~** 

# ______ L-

______ -L

________ 

# LL

__**~:~~:~::~;u:~** 

# __**~~~::~~**

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 0.116 1983 0.118 1984 0.121 1985 0.123 1986 0.125 1987 0.127 1988 0.130 1989 0.1 32 1990 0.1 34 1991 0.1 41 1992 

# 0.1 47 1993 0.1 54 1994 0.1 60 1995 0.1 67 1996 

# 0.1 73 1997 0.1 78 1998 

# 0.184 1999 0.189 2000 0.195 2001 0.200 2002 0.205 

# 2003 0.205 2004 0.205 2005 0.205 2006 0.205 2007 0.205 2008 0.205 2009 0.205 2010 0.205 2011 0.205 2012 0.205 2013 0.205 2014 0.205 2015 0.205 2016 0.205 2017 0.205 2018 0.205 2019 0.205 2020 0.205 2021 0.205 2022 0.205 2023 0.205 2024 0.205 2025 0.205 2026 0.205 2027 0.205 2028 0.205 2029 0.205 2030 0.205 2031 0.205 2032 0.205 2033 0.205 2034 0.205 2035 0.205 Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical + 

# Year Projected 1982 

# 0.116 1983 

# 0.118 1984 

# 0.121 1985 

# 0.123 1986 

# 0.125 1987 

# 0.127 1988 

# 0.130 1989 

# 0.132 1990 

# 0.134 1991 

# 0.141 1992 

# 0;147 1993 

# 9·154 1994 

# 0.160 1995 

# 0.167 1996 

# 0.173 1997 

# 0.178 1998 

# 0.184 1999 

# 0.189 2000 

# 0:195 2001 

# 0,200 2002 

# 0.205 2003 

# 0.205 2004 

# 0.205 2005 

# 0.205 2006 

# 0.205 2007 

# 0.205 2008 

# 0.205 2009 

# 0.205 2010 

# 0.205 2011 

# 0.205 2012 

# 0.205 2013 

# 0.205 2014 

# 0.205 2015 

# 0.205 2016 

# 0.205 2017 

# 0.205 2018 

# 0.205 2019 

# 0.205 2020 

# 0.205 2021 

# 0.205 2022 

# 0.205 2023 

# 0.205 2024 

# 0.205 2025 

# 0.205 2026 

# 0.205 2027 

# 0.205 2028 

# 0.205 2029 

# 0.205 2030 

# 0.205 2031 

# 0.205 2032 

# 0.205 2033 

# 0.205 2034 

# 0.205 2035 

# 0.205

# Efficiency Level

Base electronic ignition non-condensing limit condensing

- induced draft condensing - pulse UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$) Unit Price ( 1990$) 30.5 $ 1,785 $ 1,297 1990 CPI 130.7 26.0 $ 1,905 $ 1,384 2002 CPI 179.9 24.7 $ 2,080 $ 1,511 22.4 $ 3,196 $ 2,322 21.2 $ 4,318 $ 3,137 Efficiency Level Base electronic ignition non-condensing limit condensing

- induced draft condensing

- pulse UEC (MMBTU/yr) Unit Price(2002$) 30.5 $ 1,785 26.0 $ 1,905 24.7 $ 2,080 22.4 $ 3,196 21.2 $ 4,318 Unit Price (1990$) $ 1,297 $ 1,384 $ 1,511 $ 2,322 $ 3,137 1990 CPI 2002 CPI 130.7 179.9

# Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Design option Price 1990$ UEC

MMBtu/y Baseline 1297 30.5 electronic ignition 1384 26.0 non-condensing limit 1511 24.7 

# condensing (induced draft) 2322 22.4 condensing (pulse) 3137 21.2 Source: Reference [1], price from Table 4.1, pg 4-3, UED from pg 3-2.

[1] U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Codes and Standards, Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Standards for Consumer Products: Room Air Conditioners, Water Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment, Mobile Home Furnaces, Kitchen Ranges and Ovens, Pool Heaters, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts & Television Sets, Washington, DC DOE/EE-0009, 1993. Volume G. 

# Detailed UEC and Price Calculations

Price UEC Design option 

# 1990$ MMBtu/y Baseline 1297 30.5 electronic ignition 1384 26.0 non-condensing limit 1511 24.7 condensing (induced draft) 2322 22.4 condensing (pulse) 3137 21.2

Source: Reference [1], price from Table 4.1, pg 4-3, UED from pg 3-2.

[1] U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Codes and Standards, Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Standards for Consumer Products: Room Air Conditioners, Water Heaters, Direct Heating Equipment, Mobile Home Furnaces, Kitchen Ranges and Ovens, Pool Heaters, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts & Television Sets, Washington, DC DOE/EE-0009, 1993. Volume G.

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas



# Conv Factor source/site 2001 1.09 2002 1.09 

# 2003 1.09 calculated from AEO 2004: 2004 1.09 natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 2005 1.09 8% 2006 1.09 2007 1.09 2008 1.09 2009 1.09 2010 1.09 2011 1.09 2012 1.09 2013 1.09 2014 1.09 2015 1.09 2016 1.09 2017 1.09 2018 1.09 2019 1.09 2020 1.09 2021 1.09 2022 1.09 2023 1.09 2024 1.09 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 

# Conversion factor for site BTU to primary Btu Residential natural gas

Conv 

# Factor source/site 2001 1.09 2002 1.09 2003 1.09 2004 1.09 2005 1.09 2006 1.09 2007 1.09 2008 1.09 2009 1.09 2010 1.09 2011 1.09 2012 1.09 2013 1.09 2014 1.09 2015 1.09 2016 1.09 2017 1.09 2018 1.09 2019 1.09 2020 1.09 2021 1.09 2022 1.09 2023 1.09 2024 1.09 2025 1.09 2026 1.09 2027 1.09 2028 1.09 2029 1.09 2030 1.09 2031 1.09 2032 1.09 2033 1.09 2034 1.09 2035 1.09 2036 1.09 2037 1.09 2038 1.09 2039 1.09 2040 1.09 2041 1.09 2042 1.09 2043 1.09 2044 1.09 2045 1.09 2046 1.09 2047 1.09 2048 1.09 2049 1.09 2050 1.09 2051 1.09 2052 1.09 2053 1.09 2054 1.09 2055 1.09 calculated from AEO 2004: natural gas transmission and distribution losses = 

# 8%

# Fuel Price

Natural Gas $/MMBTU $/1000 ft3 2001 954 

# 9.79 

# from AEO 2004

2002 7.66 7.86 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 9.04 9.29 2004 8.83 9.07 

# 1.027 MMBTU/1000 ft3 2005 8.40 8.63 2006 8.20 8.42 2007 8.09 8.31 2008 8.04 

# 8.26 2009 7.81 8.02 2010 7.68 7.88 2011 7.81 8.02 2012 7.94 

# 8.16 2013 8.10 8.32 2014 8.19 

# 8.41 2015 8.30 8.52 2016 8.31 8.53 2017 8.31 8.53 2018 8.25 8.48 2019 8.17 8.40 2020 8.24 8.47 2021 8.41 8.64 2022 8.39 8.62 2023 8.38 8.61 2024 8.37 8.60 2025 8.33 8.56 2026 8.34 2027 8.34 2028 8.34 2029 8.35 2030 8.37 2031 8.38 2032 8.38 2033 8.38 2034 8.38 2035 8.38 2036 8.38 2037 8.39 2038 8.39 2039 8.39 2040 8.40 2041 8.40 2042 8.4 0 2043 8.41 2044 8.41 2045 8.41 2046 8.42 2047 9. -,1 2 2048 8.42 2049 8.43 2050 8.43 2051 8.44 2052 8.44 2053 8.44 2054 8.45 2055 8.45



# Page 7 Fuel Price

Natural Gas 

# $IMMBTU 

# $/1000 ft3 2001 954 9.79 from AEO 2004 

# 2002 7.66 7.86 c"

....**c.,~** 

# .•**_c_~._.i,.:** . .: 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 

# 2003 9.04 9.29 

# 2004 8.83 9.07 1.027 MMBTU/lOOO ft3 

# 2005 8.40 8.63 

# 2006 8.20 8.42 

# 2007 8.09. 8.31 

# 2008 8.04- 8.26 

# 2009 7.81 8.02 

# 2010 7.68 7:88 

# 2011 7:81 

# 8.02 

# 2012 7;94 8.16 

# 2013 

# S;lQ 8.32 

# 2014 8:19 8.41 

# 2015 8.30 .852 

# 2016 8.31 8.53 

# 2017 8.31 8.5.3 

# 2018 825 8;48 

# 2019 

# &.17 8.40 

# 2020 8.2L!- 

# 8.47 

# 2021 8.41 8:64 

# 2022 8:39 8,62 

# 2023 8.61 

# 2024 8.60 

# 2025 ·8.56 

# 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055

Page 7

# Battery Chargers and Power Supplies

Product lifetime Current stock 2002 shipments NES (cumulative quads, 2010 to 2035) 2 years 140,800,000 57,000,000 0.14 4 years 205,886,188 56,967,555 0.48 5 years 44,891,628 9,000,157 0.13 6 years 318,656,272 65,738,211 1.01 7 years 25,429,200 3,632,743 0.05 10 years 3,200,000 320,000 0.03 All 1.83

Improving the efficiency of the current distribution of power supplies to a minimum of 80% efficiency 

# Battery Chargers and Power Supplies

NES (cumulative Product lifetime Current stock 2002 shipments quads, 2010 to 2035) 2 years 140,800,000 57,000,000 0.14 4 years 205,886,188 56,967,555 0.48 5 years 44,891,628 9,000,157 0.13 6 years 318,656,272 65,738,211 1.01 7 years 25,429,200 3,632,743 0.05 10 years 3,200,000 320,000 0.03 

# All 1.83

Improving the efficiency of the current distribution of power supplies to a minimum of 80% efficiency

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effie Improv. UEC Base Total

Energy Effie

Improv. Total Energy 

# Annual

Energy Savings Cumulative

Energy Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr 

# quads quads quads quads 2001 140.80 14 14 0.022 0.022 2002 56.97 127.37 14 14 0.020 0.020 2003 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2004 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2005 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2006 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2007 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2008 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2009 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.017 0.017 2010 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.015 0.003 0.003 2011 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.006 0.008 2012 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.014 2013 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.019 2014 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.025 2015 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.030 2016 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.035 2017 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.041 2018 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.046 2019 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.052 2020 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.057 2021 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.062 2022 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.068 2023 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.073 2024 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.078 2025 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.083 2026 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.089 2027 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.094 2028 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.099 2029 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.104 2030 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.110 2031 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.115 2032 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.120 2033 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.125 2034 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.130 2035 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.135 2036 0 56.97 14 10 0.008 0.006 0.003 0.138 2037 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2038 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2039 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2040 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2041 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2042 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2043 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2044 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2045 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2046 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2047 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2048 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2049 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2050 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2051 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2052 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2053 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2054 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2055 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie Improv. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr quads quads 

# I quads quads 2001 140.80 14 14 0.022 0.022 2002 56.97 127.37 14 14 0.020 0.020 2003 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2004 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2005 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.018 2006 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.018 0.Q18 2007 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.Q18 0.018 2008 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.Q18 0.018 2009 56.97 113.94 14 14 0.017 0.017 2010 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.Ql5 0.003 0.003 2011 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.006 0.008 2012 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.014 2013 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.019 2014 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.025 2015 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.030 2016 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.035 2017 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.041 2018 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.046 2019 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.052 2020 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.057 2021 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.062 2022 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.068 2023 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.073 2024 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.078 2025 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.01l 0.005 0.083 2026 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.089 2027 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.017 0.011 0.005 0.094 2028 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.099 2029 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.104 2030 56.97 ll3.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.110 2031 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.115 2032 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.120 2033 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.125 2034 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.130 2035 56.97 113.94 14 10 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.135 2036 0 56.97 14 10 0.008 0.006 0.003 0.138 2037 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2038 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2039 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2040 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2041 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2042 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2043 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2044 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2045 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2046 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2047 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2048 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2049 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2050 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2051 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2052 0 0.00 14 

## 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2053 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2054 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138 2055 0 0.00 14 10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.138

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving



# Units ase UEC Effic Improv. 

# UEC Base Total



# Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy 

# Savings Cumulative

Energy 

# Savings million million 

# kwhlyr kwhlyr quads quads quads quads 2001 205.89 26 26 0.059 0.059 2002 56.97 211.38 26 26 0.060 0.060 2003 56.97 216.88 26 26 0.061 0.061 2004 56.97 222.37 26 26 0.062 0.062 2005 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2006 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2007 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2008 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2009 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.063 0.063 2010 56 .97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.058 0.005 0.005 2011 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.053 0.010 0.015 2012 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.047 0.015 0.030 2013 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.051 2014 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.071 2015 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.091 2016 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.111 2017 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.131 2018 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.150 2019 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.170 2020 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.190 2021 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.210 2022 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.229 2023 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.249 2024 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.268 2025 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.019 0.288 2026 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.307 2027 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.326 2028 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.346 2029 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.365 2030 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.384 2031 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.403 2032 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.423 2033 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.442 2034 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.461 2035 56 .97 227.87 26 17 0.058 0.039 0.019 0.480 2036 0 170.90 26 17 0.044 0.030 0.014 0.494 2037 0 113.94 26 17 0.029 0.020 0.009 0.503 2038 0 56.97 26 17 0.014 0.010 0.005 0.508 2039 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2040 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2041 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2042 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2043 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2044 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2045 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2046 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2047 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2048 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2049 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2050 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2051 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2052 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2053 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2054 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2055 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie Improv. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million 

# kwh/yr kwh/yr 

# I quads 

# I quads iquads 

# I quads 2001 205.89 26 26 0.059 0.059 2002 56.97 211.38 26 26 0.060 0.060 2003 56.97 216.88 26 26 0.061 0.061 2004 56.97 222.37 26 26 0.062 0.062 2005 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2006 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2007 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2008 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.064 0.064 2009 56.97 227.87 26 26 0.063 0.063 2010 

## 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.058 0.005 0.005 2011 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.053 0.010 0.Dl5 2012 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.063 0.047 0.015 0.030 2013 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.051 2014 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.071 2015 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.091 2016 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.062 0.042 0.020 0.111 2017 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.131 2018 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.150 2019 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.170 2020 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.190 2021 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.061 0.041 0.020 0.210 2022 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.229 2023 56.97 227.87 26 17 

## 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.249 2024 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.020 0.268 2025 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.041 0.019 0.288 2026 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.307 2027 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.326 2028 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.060 0.040 0.019 0.346 2029 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.365 2030 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.384 2031 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.403 2032 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.423 2033 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.442 2034 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.059 0.040 0.019 0.461 2035 

## 56.97 227.87 26 17 0.058 0.039 0.019 0.480 2036 0 170.90 26 17 0.044 0.030 0.014 0.494 2037 0 113.94 26 17 0.029 0.020 0.009 0.503 2038 0 56.97 26 17 0.014 0.010 0.005 0.508 2039 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2040 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2041 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2042 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2043 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2044 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2045 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2046 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2047 0 0.00 26 17 

## 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2048 0 0.00 26 17 

## 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2049 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2050 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2051 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2052 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2053 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2054 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508 2055 0 0.00 26 17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.508

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic Improv. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings Cumulative

Energy Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr uads quads quads quads 2001 44.89 39 39 0.020 0.020 2002 9.00 44.91 39 39 0.019 0.019 2003 9.00 44.94 39 39 0.019 0.019 2004 9.00 44.96 39 39 0.019 0.019 2005 9.00 44.98 39 39 0.019 0.019 2006 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2007 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2008 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2009 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2010 9 .00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.018 0.001 0.001 2011 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.017 0.002 0.003 2012 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.016 0.003 0.007 2013 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.014 0.004 0.011 2014 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.017 2015 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.022 2016 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.028 2017 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.005 0.033 2018 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.005 0.039 2019 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.044 2020 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.050 2021 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.055 2022 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.061 2023 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.066 2024 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.071 2025 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.077 2026 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.082 2027 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.087 2028 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.093 2029 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.098 2030 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.103 2031 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.109 2032 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.114 2033 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.119 2034 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.124 2035 9 .00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.012 0.005 0.130 2036 0 36.00 39 28 0.014 0.010 0.004 0.134 2037 0 27.00 39 28 0.011 0.007 0.003 0.137 2038 0 18.00 39 28 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.139 2039 0 9.00 39 28 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.140 2040 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2041 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2042 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2043 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2044 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2045 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2046 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2047 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2048 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2049 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2050 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2051 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2052 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2053 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2054 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2055 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie lmprov. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr 

# I quads 

# I quads 

# I quads IQlwds 2001 44.89 39 39 0.020 0.020 2002 9.00 44.91 39 39 0.019 0.019 2003 9.00 44.94 39 39 0.019 0.019 2004 9.00 44.96 39 39 0.019 0.019 2005 9.00 44.98 39 39 0.019 0.019 2006 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2007 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2008 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2009 9.00 45.00 39 39 0.019 0.019 2010 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.018 0.001 0.001 2011 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.017 0.002 0.003 2012 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.016 0.003 0.007 2013 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.014 0.004 0.011 2014 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.017 2015 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.022 2016 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.006 0.028 2017 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.005 0.033 2018 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.019 0.013 0.005 0.039 2019 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.044 2020 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.050 2021 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.055 2022 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.061 2023 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.066 2024 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.071 2025 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.Dl8 0.013 0.005 0.077 2026 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.082 2027 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.087 2028 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.Dl8 0.013 0.005 0.093 2029 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.098 2030 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.103 2031 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.109 2032 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.114 2033 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.119 2034 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.013 0.005 0.124 

## 2035 9.00 45.00 39 28 0.018 0.012 0.005 0.130 2036 0 36.00 39 28 0.014 0.010 0.004 0.134 2037 0 27.00 39 28 0.011 0.007 0.003 0.137 2038 0 18.00 39 28 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.139 2039 0 9.00 39 28 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.140 2040 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2041 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2042 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2043 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2044 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2045 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2046 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2047 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2048 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2049 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2050 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2051 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2052 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2053 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2054 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140 2055 0 0.00 39 28 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.140

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic Improv. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy 

# Annual

Energy Savings Cumulative

Energy Savings million million kwh/yr 

# kwh/yr quads quads quads quads 2001 318.66 37 37 0.133 0.133 2002 65.74 331.29 37 37 0.136 0.136 2003 65.74 343.91 37 37 0.141 0.141 2004 65.74 356.54 37 37 0.146 0.146 2005 65.74 369.17 37 37 0.151 0.151 2006 65.74 381.80 37 37 0.156 0.156 2007 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.161 0.161 2008 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.161 0.161 2009 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.159 0.159 2010 65 .74 394.43 37 27 0.159 0.151 0.007 0.007 2011 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.158 0.143 0.015 0.022 2012 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.158 0.136 0.022 0.045 2013 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.157 0.128 0.030 0.074 2014 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.156 0.120 0.037 0.111 2015 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.156 0.112 0.044 0.155 2016 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.155 0.112 0.044 0.199 2017 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.155 0.111 0.044 0.243 2018 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.154 0.111 0.044 0.286 2019 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.154 0.110 0.043 0.330 2020 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.110 0.043 0.373 2021 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.110 0.043 0.416 2022 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.109 0.043 0.459 2023 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.502 2024 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.545 2025 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.588 2026 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.151 0.108 0.043 0.630 2027 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.151 0.108 0.043 0.673 2028 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.150 0.108 0.042 0.715 2029 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.150 0.108 0.042 0.758 2030 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.800 2031 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.842 2032 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.884 2033 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 0.926 2034 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 0.967 2035 65 .74 394.43 37 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 1.009 2036 0 328.69 37 27 0.123 0. 088 0 .035 1.044 2037 0 262.95 37 27 0.098 0.070 0.028 1.071 2038 0 197.21 37 27 0.073 0.053 0.021 1.092 2039 0 131.48 37 27 0.049 0.035 0.014 1.106 2040 0 65.74 37 27 0.024 0.017 0.007 1.113 2041 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2042 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2043 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2044 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2045 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2046 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2047 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2048 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2049 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2050 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2051 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2052 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2053 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2054 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2055 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie Improv. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr 

# I quads 

# I quads 

# I quads 

# I quads 2001 318.66 37 37 0.133 0.133 2002 65.74 331.29 37 37 0.136 0.136 2003 65.74 343.91 37 37 0.141 0.141 2004 65.74 356.54 37 37 0.146 0.146 2005 65.74 369.17 37 37 0.151 0.151 2006 65.74 381.80 37 37 0.156 0.156 2007 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.161 0.161 2008 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.161 0.161 2009 65.74 394.43 37 37 0.159 0.159 2010 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.159 0.151 0.007 0.007 2011 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.158 0.143 0.015 0.022 2012 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.158 0.136 0.022 0.045 2013 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.157 0.128 0.030 0.074 2014 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.156 0.120 0.037 0.111 2015 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.156 0.112 0.044 0.155 2016 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.155 0.112 0.044 0.199 2017 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.155 0.111 0.044 0.243 2018 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.154 0.111 0.044 0.286 2019 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.154 0.110 0.043 0.330 2020 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.110 0.043 0.373 2021 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.110 0.043 0.416 2022 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.153 0.109 0.043 0.459 2023 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.502 2024 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.545 2025 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.152 0.109 0.043 0.588 2026 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.151 0.108 0.043 0.630 2027 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.151 0.108 0.043 0.673 2028 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.150 0.108 0.042 0.715 2029 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.150 0.108 0.042 0.758 2030 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.800 2031 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.842 2032 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.149 0.107 0.042 0.884 2033 65.74 394.43 37 

## 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 0.926 2034 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 0.967 2035 65.74 394.43 37 27 0.148 0.106 0.042 1.009 2036 0 328.69 37 27 0.123 0.088 0.035 1.044 2037 0 262.95 37 27 0.098 0.070 0.D28 1.071 2038 0 197.21 37 27 0.073 0.053 0.021 1.092 2039 0 131.48 37 27 0.049 0.035 0.014 U06 2040 0 65.74 37 27 0.024 0.017 0.007 U13 2041 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 U13 2042 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2043 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2044 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2045 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2046 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2047 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2048 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2049 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2050 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2051 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2052 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2053 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2054 0 0.00 37 

## 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113 2055 0 0.00 37 27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.113

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving



# Units ase UEC Effie Improv. 

# UEC Base Total



# Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy 

# Savings Cumulative

Energy 

# Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr quads 

# quads quads quads 2001 25.43 29 29 0. 008 0.008 2002 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2003 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2004 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2005 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2006 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2007 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2008 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008

2009 3.63 25.43 29 29 0. 008 0.008 2010 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .008 0.000 0.000 2011 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .007 0.001 0.001 2012 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .007 0.001 0.002 2013 3.63 25.43 29 21 0 .008 0 .007 0.001 0.003 2014 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .006 0.002 0.005 2015 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .006 0.002 0.007 2016 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .006 0.002 0.009 2017 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .006 0.002 0.011 2018 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.014 2019 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.016 2020 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.018 2021 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.020 2022 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.023 2023 3.63 25.43 29 21 0. 008 0 .005 0.002 0.025 2024 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.027 2025 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.029 2026 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.032 2027 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.034 2028 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.036 2029 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.038 2030 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.040 2031 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 •0.002 0.043 2032 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.045 2033 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.047 2034 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.049 2035 3 .63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.051 2036 0 21.80 29 21 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.053 2037 0 18.16 29 21 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.055 2038 0 14.53 29 21 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.056 2039 0 10.90 29 21 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.057 2040 0 7.27 29 21 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.057 2041 0 3.63 29 21 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.058 2042 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2043 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2044 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2045 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2046 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2047 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2048 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2049 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2050 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2051 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2052 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2053 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2054 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2055 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie Improv. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million kwh/yr kwh/yr quads 

# I quads 

# I quads !auads 2001 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2002 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2003 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2004 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2005 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2006 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2007 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2008 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2009 3.63 25.43 29 29 0.008 0.008 2010 

## 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.008 0.000 0.000 2011 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.007 0.001 0.001 2012 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.007 0.001 0.002 2013 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.007 0.001 0.003 2014 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.005 2015 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.007 2016 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.009 2017 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.011 2018 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.014 2019 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.016 2020 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.018 2021 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.020 2022 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.023 2023 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.025 2024 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.027 2025 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.029 2026 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.032 2027 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.034 2028 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.036 2029 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.038 2030 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.040 2031 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 ·0.002 0.043 2032 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.045 2033 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.047 2034 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.049 2035 

## 3.63 25.43 29 21 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.051 2036 0 21.80 29 21 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.053 2037 0 18.16 29 21 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.055 2038 0 14.53 29 21 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.056 2039 0 10.90 29 21 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.057 2040 0 7.27 29 21 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.057 2041 0 3.63 29 21 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.058 2042 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2043 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2044 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2045 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2046 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2047 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2048 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2049 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2050 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2051 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2052 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2053 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2054 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058 2055 0 0.00 29 21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.058

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

ear ew Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic Improv. UEC Base Total

Energy Effic

Improv. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings Cumulative

Energy Savings million million kwh/yr 

# kwhlyr quads quads quads quads 2001 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2002 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2003 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2004 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2005 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2006 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2007 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2008 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2009 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2010 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 2011 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 2012 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.001 2013 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.001 2014 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.002 2015 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.003 2016 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.003 2017 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.004 2018 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.005 2019 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.007 2020 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.008 2021 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.009 2022 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.010 2023 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.011 2024 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.013 2025 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.014 2026 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.015 2027 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.016 2028 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.017 2029 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.018 2030 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.020 2031 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.021 2032 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.022 2033 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.023 2034 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.024 2035 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.025 2036 0 2.88 123 87 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.026 2037 0 2.56 123 87 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.027 2038 0 2.24 123 87 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.028 2039 0 1.92 123 87 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.029 2040 0 1.60 123 87 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.029 2041 0 1.28 123 87 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.030 2042 0 0.96 123 87 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.030 2043 0 0.64 123 87 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.030 2044 0 0.32 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2045 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2046 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2047 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2048 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2049 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2050 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2051 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2052 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2053 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2054 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2055 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 

# Battery Charger and Power Supply Shipments and Stock

Effie Effie Improv. Annual Cumulative Surviving Improv. Base Total Total Energy Energy Year New Shipment Units Base UEC UEC Energy Energy Savings Savings million million 

# kwhlyr kwhlyr 

# I quads 

# I quads 

# I quads lauads 2001 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2002 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2003 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2004 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2005 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2006 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2007 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2008 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2009 0.32 3.20 123 123 0.004 0.004 2010 

## 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 2011 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 2012 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.001 2013 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.001 2014 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.002 2015 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.003 2016 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.003 2017 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.004 2018 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.005 2019 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.007 2020 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.008 2021 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.009 2022 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.010 2023 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.011 2024 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.013 2025 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.014 2026 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.015 2027 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.016 2028 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.017 2029 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.018 2030 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.020 2031 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.021 2032 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.022 2033 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.023 2034 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.024 2035 

## 0.32 3.20 123 87 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.025 2036 0 2.88 123 87 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.026 2037 0 2.56 123 87 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.027 2038 0 2.24 123 87 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.028 2039 0 1.92 123 87 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.029 2040 0 1.60 123 87 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.029 2041 0 1.28 123 87 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.030 2042 0 0.96 123 87 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.030 2043 0 0.64 123 87 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.030 2044 0 0.32 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2045 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2046 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2047 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2048 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2049 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2050 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2051 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2052 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2053 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2054 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 2055 0 0.00 123 87 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030

# wt'ed avg effic. Improv. Sales in base UEC UEC Lifetime (years) Total in Use 2002 (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) 2 140,800,000 57,000,000 14.24 9.72 4 205, 886,188 56 ,967,555 25.69 17.36 5 44,891,628 9,000,157 39.44 27.79 6 318,656,272 65,738,211 37.47 26.89 7 25,429,200 3,632,743 29.16 20.64 10 3,200,000 320,000 122.64 86.84 Lifetime (years) effie. wt'ed avg Improv. Sales in base UEC UEC Total in Use 2002 (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) 2 140,800,000 57,000,000 14.24 9.72 4 205,886,188 56,967,555 25.69 17.36 5 44,891,628 9,000,157 39.44 27.79 6 318,656,272 65,738,211 37.47 26.89 7 25,429,200 3,632,743 29.16 20.64 10 3,200,000 320,000 122.64 86.84

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh 2001 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 10972 2004 10924 2005 10913 2006 10903 2007 10894 2008 10868 2009 10785 2010 10749 2011 10712 2012 10679 2013 10635 2014 10584 2015 10542 2016 10515 2017 10483 2018 10436 2019 10408 2020 10376 2021 10345 2022 10322 2023 10298 2024 10275 2025 10252 2026 10223 2027 10194 2028 10166 2029 10139 2030 101-13 2031 10087. 2032 10061 20331 10035 2034! 10010 2035' 9983 2036, 9957 2037 9931 2038 9905 2039 9879 2040 9853; 2041 98281 2042 9802' 2043; 9777 20441 9751 2045 9726 2046 9700 2047 9675 2048 9650 2049, 9625 20501 9600 2051 9575 2052 9550 2053 9525 2054 9500 2055 9475 

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh 

# 20.0.1 11126 20.0.2 10.986 20.0.3 10.972 20.0.4 10.924 20.0.5 10.913 20.0.6 1090.3 20.0.7 10.894 20.0.8 10.868 20.0.9 10.785 20.10. 10.749 20.11 1o.71? 20.12 10.679 20.13 10.p35 20.14 10584 20.15 1.0.542 20.16 10.515 20.17 10.483 20.18 19436 20.19 ··'.0.40.8 20.20. 10.376 20.21 10.345 20.22 20.23 20.24 calculated from AEO 

# 20.0.4 based on extrapolation of trend from 

# 20.15-20.25

# Room Air Conditioners

Efficiency improvement Level CEE Tier Two - 11.8 EER

Discount rate I 7/6 

# Discount to year 2003

Product lifetime ( nearest full y ear) 13 NES (quads) NPV (billion $) 

# Room Air Conditioners

1 

# Efficiency Improvement Level

1 

# Discount rate 

# GEE lIer

# Tvvo-11~8EER~~ 7%1 

# 1 Discount to year 

# .20033

1 Product lifetime (nearest full year) 

# 131 NES (quads)

NPV (billion 

# $) 

# 1.471

-$6.291

## Room A/C Shipments and Stock

ear New Shipment Surviving

Units ase UEC Effic lmprov

. UEC Base Total

Energy Efftc

lmprov. Total Energy Annual

Energy Savings 

### Cumulative

Energy Savings Base Operating

Cost Effie.

lmprov

. Operating Cost Annual

Fuel Cost Savings 

### PVAnnual

Fuel Cost Savings PV

Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings Delta Unit

Price Total

Incremental Equip

. Cost PV Total

Incremental Equip Cost PV

Cumulative Equip . Cost Net

Cumulative PV million million kwh1vr kwh/ r quads q uads q uads q uads billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ $ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion $ 2001 5.58 55.31 536 536 0.330 0.330 $ 2.58 $ 2.58 2002 6.15 56.79 536 536 0.334 0.334 S 2.57 $ 2,57 2003 6.48 59.42 536 536 0.349 0. 349 S 2.70 $ 2.70 2004 6.65 63.52 536 536 0.372 0.372 $ 2.84 $ 2.84 2005 6.25 67.13 536 536 0.392 0.392 $ 2.96 S 2.96 2006 6.06 70.34 536 536 0 .411 0.411 $ 3.06 $ 3.06 2007 6.06 72.52 536 536 0.423 0.423 $ 3.11 $ 3.11 2008 6.06 74.63 536 536 0.435 0.435 S 3.19 $ 3.19 2009 6.06 76.21 536 536 0.440 0.440 $ 3.26 $ 3.26 2010 6.06 78.43 536 445 0.452 0.446 0.006 0.006 $ 3.34 $ 3.30 $ 0.04 $ 0.03 $ 0.03 $ 198 -5120 -$0.75 -$0.75 -$0.72 2011 6.06 80.09 536 445 0.460 0 .448 0.012 0.018 S 3.40 $ 3.32 $ 0.09 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 198 -8120 -$0.70 -$1.44 -$1.37 2012 6.06 80.04 536 445 0.458 0.440 0.018 0.035 $ 3.44 $ 3.30 $ 0.13 $ 0.07 $ 0.15 $ 198 -$1.20 -$0.65 -$2.10 -51.95 2013 6.06 79.61 536 445 0.454 0.430 0.023 0.059 $ 3.43 S 3.25 $ 0.18 $ 0.09 $ 0.24 0 198 -$1.20 -$0.61 -$2.70 -$2.46 2014 6.06 80.10 536 445 0.454 0.425 0. 029 0.088 $ 3 .46 $ 3.24 $ 0.22 $ 0.11 $ 0.35 $ 198 -$1.20 -$0.57 -$327 -$2.93 2015 6. 06 80 .01 536 445 0.452 0.417 0.035 0.123 $ 3.48 S 3.21 $ 0.27 $ 0.12 $ 0.46 $ 198 -0120 -$0.53 -$3.81 -53.34 2016 6.06 79.59 536 445 0.448 0.408 0.041 0.163 S 3.47 $ 3.16 $ 0.31 $ 0.13 $ 0.59 S 198 -$120 -$0.50 -$4 .30 -$3.71 2017 6.06 79.01 536 445 0.444 0.398 0.046 0.209 $ 3.43 5 3.07 $ 0.36 $ 0.14 $ 0.73 $ 198 -$1.20 -$ 0.46 -$4 .77 -$4.04 2018 6 .06 78.82 536 445 0.441 0.389 0.052 0.261 $ 3.43 S 3.03 $ 0.40 $ 0.15 S 0.88 $ 198 -51.20 -$0.43 -$5.20 -$4.32 2019 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.439 0.382 0.057 0.318 $ 3.41 $ 2.97 $ 0.44 $ 0.15 $ 1.03 $ 198 -8120 -$0.41 -85.61 -$4.58 2020 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.438 0.375 0.063 0,381 $ 3.42 0 2.93 $ 0.49 $ 0.16 $ 1.18 $ 198 -$120 -$0.38 -$5.99 -$4.80 2021 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.437 0.368 0.068 0.450 $ 3.44 $ 2.90 $ 0.54 $ 0.16 $ 1.34 $ 198 -$120 -$0.35 -$6.34 -$5.00 2022 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.436 0.362 0.074 0.523 $ 3.43 $ 2.85 $ 0.58 $ 0.16 $ 1.50 S 198 -$120 -$0.33 -$6.67 -$5.17 2023 6.06 78.82 536 445 0435 0.361 0.074 0.597 $ 3.41 $ 2.84 S 0.58 $ 0.15 $ 1.65 S 198 -8120 -50.31 -$6.98 -$5.33 2024 6.06 76.82 536 445 0.434 0.360 0.074 0.671 $ 3.44 $ 2.85 $ 0.58 S 0.14 S 1.79 $ 198 -$120 -$0.29 -$727 -$5.48 2025 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.433 0.360 0.073 0.744 $ 3.44 $ 2.86 $ 0.58 $ 0.13 S 1.93 $ 198 -$120 -$027 -57.54 -$5.62 2026 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.432 0.359 0:073 0.817 $ 3.44 $ 2.86 $ 0.58 $ 0.12 $ 2.05 $ 198 -$120 -80.25 -87.80 -$5.75 2027 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.430 0.358 0.073 0.890 $ 3.44 $ 2.86 $ 0.58 $ 0.12 $ 2.16 $ 198 -$1.20 -$024 -$8.03 -$5.87 2028 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.429 0.357 0.073 0.963 $ 3. 44 $ 2.86 $ 0.58 $ 0.11 $ 2.27 $ 198 -$120 -$0.22 -8825 -$5.98 2029 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.428 0.356 0.073 1.036 $ 3.45 $ 2.86 $ 0.58 $ 0.10 $ 2.37 $ 198 -5120 -$0.21 -58.46 -$6.09 2030 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.427 0.355 0.072 1.108 $ 3.45 $ 2. 86 $ 0.58 $ 0.09 $ 2.47 $ 198 -8120 -$0.19 -58.65 -56.19 2031 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.426 0.354 0.072 1.180 $ 3.45 $ 2.87 $ 0.59 S 0.09 S 2.55 $ 198 -9120 -$0.18 -$8.83 -86.28 2032 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.425 0.353 0.072 1252 $ 3.45 $ 2.87 $ 0.59 S 0.08 8 2.64 $ 198 -$120 -$0.17 -59.00 -$6.36 2033 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.424 0.352 0.072 1.324 $ 3.46 $ 2.87 $ 0.59 S 0.08 $ 2 .71 $ 198 -$120 -$0.16 -$9.16 -$6.44 2034 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.423 0.351 0.072 1.396 S 3.46 $ 2.87 $ 0.59 $ 0.07 $ 2.79 $ 198 -5120 -$0.15 -$9.31 -56.52 2035 6.06 78.82 536 445 0.422 0.350 0.071 1.467 S 3.46 $ 2.88 S 0.59 $ 0.07 $ 2.85 $ 198 -5120 -$0.14 -89.44 -$6.59 2036 0 72.76 536 445 0.388 0.322 0.066 1.533 S 320 S 2.66 1 0.54 $ 0.06 $ 2.91 -$9.44 -$6.53 2037 0 66.69 536 445 0.355 0.295 0.060 1.593 $ 2.93 $ 2.44 $ 0.50 $ 0.05 S 2.96 -$9.44 -86.48 2038 0 60.63 536 445 0.322 0.267 0.055 1.647 $ 2.67 S 222 $ 0.45 $ 0.04 $ 3.00 -$9.44 -$6.44 2039 0 54.57 536 445 0.289 0.240 0.049 1.696 $ 2.40 $ 2.00 $ 0.41 $ 0.04 $ 3.04 -89.44 -$6.40 2040 0 48.50 536 445 0.256 0.213 0.043 1.740 $ 2.14 5 1.78 $ 0.36 $ 0.03 $ 3.07 -89.44 -$6.37 2041 0 42.44 536 445 0.223 0.186 0.038 1.778 $ 1.87 $ 1.56 $ 0.32 $ 0.02 $ 3.09 -$9.44 -$6.35 2042 0 36.38 536 445 0.191 0.159 0.032 1.810 $ 1.61 $ 1.33 $ 0.27 $ 0.02 $ 3.11 -59.44 -$6.33 2043 0 30.32 536 445 0.159 0.132 0.027 1.837 $ 1.34 $ 1.11 S 0.23 $ 0.02 $ 3.13 -$9.44 -$6.31 2044 0 24.25 536 445 0.127 0.105 0.021 1.858 6 1.07 S 0.89 $ 0.18 $ 0.01 $ 3.14 -$9.44 -$6.30 2045 0 18.19 536 445 0.095 0.079 0.016 1.875 $ 0.81 $ 0.67 $ 0.14 $ 0.01 $ 3.15 -59.44 -$6.30 2046 0 12.13 536 445 0.063 0.052 0.011 1.885 $ 0.54 $ 0.45 S 0.09 $ 0.00 $ 3.15 -$9.44 -$6.29 2047 0 6.06 536 445 0.031 0.026 0.005 1.891 $ 0.27 $ 0.22 $ 0.05 $ 0.00 $ 3.15 -89.44 -56.29 2048 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - $ - 1 - S - $ 3.15 -$9.44 -5629 2049 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3.15 -$9.44 -8629 2050 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - S - $ - $ - $ 3.15 -$9.44 -$6.29 2051 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - $ - $ - $ - S 3.15 -59.44 -$6.9 2052 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - S - $ - $ - S 3.15 -$9.44 -$6.29 2053 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 S - S - $ - $ - $ 3.15 -$9.44 -$6.29 2054 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ - S - $ - $ - $ 3.15 -$9.44 -$629 2055 0 0.00 536 445 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.891 $ $ $ $ - $ 3.15 -59.44 -$6.29 

# Room Ale 

# Shipments and Stock

Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 

### 2009 2010 2011 2012 

### 2013 2014 2015 

### 2016 2017 2018 

### 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 

### 2027 2028 2029 2030 

### 2031 2032 

### 2033 2034 2035 

### 2036 2037 2038 

### 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 

### 2046 2047 2048 

### 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 

### New Surviving Shipmellt Units million

5.58 6.15 6.48 6.65 6.25 6.06 6.0{; 6.0{; 6.0{; 6.0{; 6.06 6.06 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 6.06 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 6.06 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 6.06 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 6.0{; 6.0{; 6.06 6.0{; 6.06 

# o million 55.31 56.79 59.42 63.52 67.13 70.34 

### 72.52 74.63 76.21 78.43 80.09 80.04 79.61 80.10 80.oI 79.59 79.01 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 78.82 72.76 66.69 60.63 54.57 48.50 42.44 36.38 30.32 24.25 18.19 12.13 6.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

### Effie 1",prov. Base UEC UEC kwh/vr 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 

### kwillyr 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 536 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 

### Effie 

## Improv. Anlwal Energy Savings 

### Base Total Total Ellergy Energy !lads nads uads 0.330 0.330 0.334 0.349 0.372 0.392 0.411 0.423 0.435 0.440 0.452 0.460 0.458 0.454 0.454 0.452 0.448 

### 0.444 0.441 0.439 0.438 0.437 0.436 0.435 0.434 0.433 0.432 0.430 0.429 0.428 0.427 0.426 0.425 0.424 0.423 0.422 0.388 0.355 0.322 0.289 0.256 0.223 0.191 0.159 0.127 0.095 0.063 0.031 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.334 0.349 0.372 0.392 0.411 0.423 0.435 0.440 0.446 0.006 0.448 0.012 0.440 O.oI8 0.430 0.023 0.425 0.029 0.417 O.oJ5 0.408 0.041 0.398 0.046 0.389 0.052 0.382 0.057 0.375 0.063 0.368 0.0{;8 0.362 0.074 0.361 0.074 0.360 0.074 0.360 0.073 0.359 0.073 0.358 0.073 0.357 0.073 0.356 0.073 0.355 0.072 0.354 0.072 0.353 0.072 0.352 0.072 0.351 0.072 0.350 0.071 0.322 0.066 0.295 0.060 0.267 0.055 0.240 0.049 0.213 0.043 0.186 0.038 0.159 0.032 0.132 0.027 0.105 0.021 0.079 0.016 0.052 0.011 0.026 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

### PV 

## Cumltlative Energy Savings 

### Effie. 

### Imptov. Anuual PV Annual Cumulative 

### Total PVTotal PV 

## Net

Iwds 

### Base Operah"ng Operating 

### Fllel Cost Fllel Cost Fllel Cost Cost Cost Savings Savings 

### billion $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ 

### billion $ $ 2.58 $ 2.58

0.006 $ 0.018 $ 0.035 $ 0.059 $ 0.088 $ 0.123 $ 0.163 $ 0.209 $ 0.261 $ 0.318 $ 0.381 $ 0.450 $ 0.523 $ 0.597 $ 0.671 $ 0.744 $ 0.817 $ 0.890 $ 0.963 $ 1.036 $ 1.108 $ 1.180 $ 1.252 $ 1.324 $ 1.396 S 1.467 $ 1.533 $ 1.593 $ 1.647 $ 1.696 $ 1.740 $ 1.778 $ 1.810 $ 1.837 $ 1.858 $ 1.875 $ 1.885 $ 1.891 $ 1.891 1.891 1.891 1.891 1.891 1.891 $ 1.891 $ 1.891 $ 2.57 2.70 2.84 2.96 3.06 3.11 3.19 3.26 3.34 3.40 3.44 3.43 3.46 3.48 3.47 3.43 3.43 3.41 3.42 3.44 3.43 3.41 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.44 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.46 3.46 3.46 3.20 2.93 2.67 2.40 2.14 1.87 1.61 1.34 1.07 0.81 0.54 0.27 2.57 2.70 2.84 2.96 3.06 3.11 3.19 3.26 3.30 3.32 3.30 3.25 3.24 3.21 3.16 3.07 3.03 2.97 2.93 2.90 2.85 2.84 2.85 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.87 2.87 2.87 $ 2.87 2.88 2.66 2.44 2.22 2.00 1.78 1.56 1.33 1.11 0.89 0.67 0.45 S 0.22 $ 0.04 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.22 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.49 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.50 0.45 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.27 0.23 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.05 $ 0.Q3 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.Q4 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 O.oI O.oI 0.00 0.00 

### Savings 

### billion $ 

### Delta UIJit Incremental Incremental Cumulative Cumulative Price Equip. Cost Equip Cost Equip. Cost PV $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billion 

### $ billioll 

### $

0.03 0.08 0.15 0.24 0.35 0.46 0.59 0.73 0.88 1.03 1.18 1.34 1.50 1.65 1.79 1.93 2.05 2.16 2.27 2.37 2.47 2.55 2.64 2.71 2.79 2.85 $ 2.91 2.96 3.00 3.04 3.07 3.09 3.11 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 -$1.20 -SI.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 ·$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -S1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 -$1.20 ·$0.75 ·$0.70 ·$0.65 ·$0.61 ·$0.57 ·$0.53 ·$0.50 ·$0.46 ·$0.43 ·$0.41 ·$0.38 ·$0.35 ·$0.33 ·SO.31 -$0.29 -$0.27 -$0.25 ·$0.24 -$0.22 -$0.21 ·$0.19 ·$0.18 ·$0.17 ·$0.16 ·$0.15 -$0.14 ·$0.75 ·$1.44 -$2.10 -$2.70 -$3.27 ·S3.81 ·$4.30 ·$4.77 -$5.20 ·$5.61 ·$5.99 ·$6.34 ·$6.67 ·$6.98 -$7.27 ·$7.54 ·$7.80 ·$8.03 -$8.25 ·S8.46 ·$8.65 ·S8.83 ·$9.00 ·$9.16 ·$9.31 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 -$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 -$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 -$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 ·$9.44 -$0.72 ·$1.37 ·$1.95 -$2.46 -$2.93 -$3.34 -$3.71 ·$4.04 -$4.32 ·$4.58 ·$4.80 ·$5.00 ·$5.17 ·$5.33 ·$5.48 -$5.62 ·$5.75 ·$5.87 ·S5.98 ·$6.09 ·$6.19 -$6.28 ·$6.36 ·S6.44 -$6.52 ·$6.59 ·$6.53 ·$6.48 ·$6.44 ·$6.40 ·$6.37 ·$6.35 ·$6.33 ·$6.31 ·$6.30 ·$6.30 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 -$6.29 ·$6.29

# Shipments , millions of units Historical + Year Projected 1982 2.27 1983 1.77 1984 2.98 

# 1985 2.94 1986 2.75 1987 3.68 

# 1988 4.40 1989 

# 4.68 1990 3.84 1991 2.55 1992 

# 2.64 1993 2.85 

# 1994 3.88 1995 3.96 1996 4.49 1997 3.84 

# 1998 4.40 1999 

# 6.11 2000 6.50 2001 5.58 2002 6.15 2003 6.48 2004 6.65 

# 2005 6.25 

# 2006 6.06 2007 6.06 2008 6.06 2009 6.06 2010 6.06 

# 2011 6.06 2012 6.06 2013 6.06 2014 6.06 2015 6.06 2016 6.06 2017 6.06 

# 2018 6.06 2019 6.06 2020 6.06 2021 6.06 2022 6.06 2023 6.06 

# 2024 6.06 2025 6.06 2026 6.06 2027 6.06 

# 2028 6.06 2029 6.06 2030 6.06 2031 6.06 2032 6.06 

# 2033 6.06 2034 

# 6.06 2035 6.06 Shipments, millions of units 

# Historical 

# + Year Projected 1982 

# 2.27 1983 

# 1.77 1984 

# 2.98 1985 

# 2.94 1986 

# 2.75 1987 

# 3.68 1988 

# 4.40 1989 

# 4.68 1990 

# 3.84 1991 

# 2.55 1992 

# 2.64 1993 

# 2.85 1994 

# 3.88 1995 

# 3.96 1996 

# 4.49 1997 

# 3.84 1998 

# 4.40 1999 

# 6.11 2000 

# 6.50 2001 

# 5.58 2002 

# 6.15 2003 

# 6.48 2004 

# 6.65 2005 

# 6.25 2006 

# 6.06 2007 

# 6.06 2008 

# 6.06 2009 

# 6.06 2010 

# 6.06 2011 

# 6.06 2012 

# 6.06 2013 

# 6.06 2014 

# 6.06 2015 

# 6.06 2016 

# 6.06 2017 

# 6.06 2018 

# 6.06 2019 

# 6.06 2020 

# 6.06 2021 

# 6.06 2022 

# 6.06 2023 

# 6.06 2024 

# 6.06 2025 

# 6.06 2026 

# 6.06 2027 

# 6.06 2028 

# 6.06 2029 

# 6.06 2030 

# 6.06 2031 

# 6.06 2032 

# 6.06 2033 

# 6.06 2034 

# 6.06 2035 

# 6.06

# Percent reduction in

Efficiency Level UEC (kwh/yr) Unit Price energy c onsumption Base 536 $ 322 Energy Star - 10.8 EER 486 $ 357 9.3% CEE Tier One - 11.3 EER 465 $ 460 13.3% CEE Tier Two - 11.8 EER 445 $ 520 16.9% Percent reduction in Efficiency Level UEG (kwh/yr) Unit Price energy consumption Base 536 

# $ 322 Energy Star

- 10.8 EER 486 

# $ 357 9.3% GEE Tier One

- 11.3 EER 465 

# $ 460 13.3% GEE Tier Two

- 11.8 EER 445 

# $ 520 16.9%

# Room Air Conditioners: UEC and Prices

From Table 4.6 of RAC DOE 1996 TSD http://www.eere.ene[gv.a ov buildin s/a fiance standards/residentia fs/tsdracv2. f

EER Retail Price Retail Price Calc'd Percent Increase

from Baseline Baseline 9 .32 $495 $496 0.0%

9.71 $506 $504 2.2% 9.85 $510 $509 3.0% 10.11 $518 $520 4.6% 10.97 $577 $577 16.6% 11.15 $697 12.39 $929

2003 AHAM Fact Book

Calc'd Shipement

- Weighted Usage ( from 1996 

## UEC Capacity DOE TSD)

EER kWh/ r Retail Price Bfu/hr hours/ r 9.75 536 $322 9800 533

Summar $590 $580 $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 9.0 9.3 -11

. 0 EER : Price vs. EER

y = 21.476xz - 386.71x + 2234.5

R2 = 0.9981

9.5



## EER UEC

kWh/ r Percent UEC Decrease

from Baseline Actual Retail Price Retail Price

Calc'd Percent Increase

from Baseline 9.32 $495 $496 9.71 $506 $504 Baseline 9 .80 533 $507

9.85 530 0.5% $510 $509 0.3% 10.11 517 3.1% $518 $520 2.5% Energy Star 10.80 484 9

. 3% $563 11.0%

10.97 476 10.7% $577 $577 13.7%

11.15 468 12.1% $697 $697 37.4% CEE Tier 1 11.30 462 13

. 3% $725 42.9% CEE Tier 2 11.80 443 16

. 9% $819 61.4%

12.39 422 20.9% $929 $929 83.1%

Y05 Priorl0zation



### Increase in Reduction in Energy Efficiency energy 

## O p tion EER UEC kWh/ r Retail Price above federal std. consum p tion Baseline 9 .75 536 $322 Energy Star 10.74 486 $357 10% 9.3% CEE Tier 1 11.24 465 $460 15% 13.3% CEE Tier 2 11.74 445 $520 20% 16.9%

Baseline and current standard are about the same: current standard ( Oct. 2000 )= 9.75; baseline = 9.8 10.0 10.5 EER 11.0 11.5 >11.15 EER : Price vs. EER

$950

- Y = 187.1x

- 1389 .1 ._._, $850 R' = 1

$750 $700 $900

- 12.2 12 .4 $650 $600 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.6

EER



### EER = Btuh output / Watts power input 

# I

I Room Air Conditioners: UEC and Prices

From Table 4.6 of RAC DOE 1996 TSD http://www.eers.enerav.Qov/buildinas/aPl: liance standards/residentiaVodfs/tsdracv2.odf Retail Price Percent Increase EER Retail Price Calc'd from Baseline Baseline 9.32 $495 $496 0.0% 9.71 $506 $504 2.2% 9.85 $510 $509 3.0% 10.11 $518 $520 4.6% 10.97 $577 $577 16.6% 11.15 $697 12.39 $929

2003 AHAM Fact Book Calc'd Shipement-Weighted Usage (from 1996 UEC Capacity DOE TSD) EER kWh/vr 

## Retail Price BtU/hr hours/vr 

## 9.75 536 $322 9800 533 Summary UEC Percent UEC Decrease Actual EER kWh/vr 

## from Baseline Retail Price 9.32 $495 9.71 $506 Baseline 9.80 533 9.85 530 0.5% $510 10.11 517 3.1% $518 Energy Star 10.80 484 9.3% 10.97 476 10.7% $577

11.15 468 12.1% $697 CEE Tier 1 11.30 462 13.3% CEETier2 11.80 443 16.9% 12.39 422 20.9% $929

Increase in Energy Efficiency Option EER UEC (kWh/vr) 

## Retail Price above federal std. Baseline 9.75 536 $322 Energy Star 10.74 486 $357 10% CEE Tier 1 11.24 465 $460 15% CEETier2 11.74 445 $520 20% Retail Price Calc'd $496 $504 $507 $509 $520 $563 $577

$697 $725 $819 $929

Reduction in

energy consumption

9.3% 13.3% 16.9% 9.3 -11.0 EER: Price vs. EER $590 $580 $570 

## B

# :~~~ oY 

# = 21.476X:

### ~ 386.71x 

### + 2234.5 R 

### = 0.9981 

## ;t $540

## ~ $530 0: 

### $520

$510 $500 $490 9.0 

# .,.

9.5



## Percent Increase from Baseline

0.3% 2.5% 11.0% 13.7%

37.4% 42.9% 61.4% 83.1% ./ ./ 

## ./ 

## L" 

# .--

10.0 10.5 EER 

# ; /

11.0



## Baseline and current standard are about the same: current standard (Oct. 2000)= 9.75; baseline = 9.8

EER = 

## Btuh output 

## I Watts power input 11.5 $950 $900 

## B $850 

## ;t $800

## ~ $750



### a: $700

$650 $600 :>11.15 EER: Price 

### vs. EER



### dY-187.,X -1389.1 

## .".,.

R' 

### 11 

# ./' ./' ./' ..,.."

11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 EER

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Cony Factor Btu/kW h 

# 2001 11126 calculated from AEO 2004 2002 10986 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 10972 2004 10924 2005 10913 2006 10903 2007 10894 2008 10868 2009 10785 2010 10749 2011 10712 2012 10679 2013 10635 2014 10584 2015 10542 2016 10515 2017 10483 2018 10436 2019 10408 2020 10376 2021 10345 2022 10322 2023 10298 2024 10275 2025 10252 2026 10223 2027 1019! 2028 10103 2029 10139 2030 10113 2031 10087 2032, 10061 2033 10035 2034 10010 20359983 2036 9957. 2037 9931 2038 9905 2039 9879 2040 9853 2041 9828 2042 9802 2043 9777'. 2044 9751 2045, 9726 2046 9700 2047 9675 2048 9650 2049 9625 2050, , 9600 20511 9575 2052 9550 2053 9525 2054 9500 2055 9475 

# Conversion factor for site kWh to primary Btu Residential site electricity

Conv Factor Btu/kWh calculated from AEO 

# 2004 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 11126 10986 10972 10924 1.0913 10903 10894 10868 10785 10749 10712 10679 1063q 1Q584 10,542. 10515**1()~83** 

# J0436 ;10408 .•

## ".Ccc_.,._,Cc..:~" 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 

# 2015-2025

.1g376

10345



# 0322

# Fuel Price

Elec eendkWh 2001 8.71 2002 8.44 2003 8.-19 2004 8.34 2005 8.23 2006 8.13 2007 8.01 2008 7.98 2009 7.99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8.03 2014 8.07 2015 8.11 2016 8.14 2017 8.10 2018 8.12 2019 8.08 2020 8.10 2021 8.14 2022 8.13 2023 8.09 2024 8.14 2025 8.15 2026 8.15 2027 8.15 2028 SA 6 2029 8.16 2030 5.17 2031 8.18 2032 8.18 2033 8.19 2034 8.20 2035 8.20 2036 82 1 2037 821 2038 822 2039 8.23 2040 8.23 2041 8.24 2042 8.24 2043 8.?5 2044 8,26 2045 8.26 2046 8.27 2047 8.28 2048 8.28 2049 8.29 2050 5.30 2051 8.30 2052 8.31 2053 8.31 2054 8.32 2055 8.33 

# from AEO 2004 based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025

Page 7 Fuel Price

Elec centlkWh 

# 2001 8.71 

# from AEO 2004 2002 8.44 

# based on extrapolation of trend from 2015-2025 2003 8:49 2004 8.34 2005 8.23 2006 8.13 2007 8.01 2008 7.98 2009 7.99 2010 7.95 2011 7.94 2012 8.01 2013 8.03 2014 8.07 2015 8.11 2016 8:14 2017 8.10. 2018 8

.. 12 2019 8.()8 2020 8.10 2021 8:14 2022 8.13 2023 8;09

.. 2024 8M 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055



# Page 7