RFS-2, Crop Yields, 

and Land Use 

Change

18 September, 2009

Beth Calabotta

Martha Schlicher

Monsanto Company
The process of yield prediction is straightforward

• Gather crop yield data from 

a known database.

• Fit a linear trend line 

through the data

• Project into the future

• Use statistics to understand 

range of potential future 

values of yield

2

y = 0.1234x - 238.32

R2 = 0.6805

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yield, MT / Ha

U.S. Corn Yield Trend

And will work well provided there are NO major shifts in technology
There is evidence the underlying yield assumptions in RFS-2 

need to be updated

Corn Soy

3

Cane Wheat
The rate of corn yield gain is increasing

Consecutive Periods Being Compared Difference SE p-value

Double cross - Open pollinated 0.9901 0.1349 <0.0001

Single cross - Double cross 0.7991 0.1639 <0.0001

Biotech GMO - Single cross 0.8767 0.4163 0.0371

Source: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

Rate of yield 

gain is 

increasing
5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2002 2003 2004 all

Conventional

MAS

Increased rate of gain with marker assisted breeding

Eathington et al (2007) Crop Sci 

Trait efficacy

# pops 79 97 72 248

Marker assisted breeding has doubled breeding rate of gain

Marker assisted breeding has doubled the rate of gain in breeding, with the 

1

st products are just beginning to come on the market
6

y = 3.2903x + 200.67

R

2

 = 0.5295

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

200120022003200420052006

95% C

Linear 

Breeding traits protect against insect and weed pressure 

and deliver increased yields

P < 0.0001

N = 656

P < 0.0001

N = 875

Yield (bu/ac)

Increase in yield due to protective traits

12 bu/ac

Yields of Dekalb RM110 hybrids 

released from 2001 - 2006

Yield (bu/ac)

16 bu/ac

150

175

200

No traits Triple stack

No traits

Triple stack

2005 2006 
Farmers have readily adopted new technologies

7

Percentage of hybrid corn

Source: Science: 132:275-280 Source: USDA

Percentage of biotech corn
Consistent underestimation of US corn yields is further 

evidence there have been changes in yield
The United States is the world’s most efficient corn 

producer

9

Corn Soybeans
Economics of hybrid adoption have been studied for many years

Griliches Z (1957) Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of 

technological change. J Econometric Soc. 25:501

About 50 million ac of open pollinated varieties 

(OPV) of maize are grown each year

Country OPV area OPV area 

(million ac) (% total corn)

Mexico 11.16 71%

Brazil 10.58 27%

India 9.46 54%

Romania 3.95 55%

Tanzania 3.29 95%

Malawi 2.90 84%

Russia Fed. 2.47 45%

Philippines 2.22 41%

Indonesia 1.78 20%

Kenya 1.33 36%
Rapid yield gains are possible within a short period of time

11

USA Mexico Sinaloa Gto Jalisco

Start 1.61 0.64 2.48 4.01 2.61

Actual 8.91 2.65 9.22 7.23 4.90

Period 77 77 23 23 23

Yield 

Inc %

2.2% 1.9% 5.9% 2.6% 2.8%
Tropical corn has increased pest and disease pressure ...

12

Diatraea saccharalis

Photo: Negri

Spodoptera frugiperda Helicoverpa zea

male female

Potential Damage – 40% Potential Damage – 8% Potential Damage – 21%

Supression Supression Control Photo: Negri Photo: Negri
Biotech traits have only recently been approved in Brazil

• Six traits approved 

since 2007.

• Currently in early 

phase of adoption 

curve.

• Heavy disease and 

pest pressure highlight 

value of traits.

13

Conventional Yieldguard

Area of high spodoptera pressure
14

INDIA

NIGERIA

INDONESIA

ETIOPIA

PHILLIPINES CHINA ARGENTINA FRANCE

ITALy

Source: Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543, USDA and FAO

RSA

MEXICO

BRASIL

UKRAINE

Significant opportunities exist ex-US to increase rate of yield gain

U.S.

Argentina
Brazilian corn yield predictions also show conservative bias
On a percentage basis, yields are improving faster globally 

than in the United States

16

Corn Soybeans

One standard Error was calculated based upon historic (1997-2009)

FAPRI land use estimation accuracies

Historically, accuracy of U.S. corn land use predictions 15 

years in the future represent 14.7 billion gallons of 

ethanol


Sixty percent of a crop acre taken for ethanol is used as animal feed; 

this excludes any stover value

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gross Corn to Ethanol 

(A)

Corn from DDGS (A) Soy from DDGS (A) Net Corn Reqd. (A)

2022 US Crop Acres Required for 15 BGY 

Corn Ethanol 

Resulting in the highest ethanol yield per net acre of any crop

1102 gallons 

ethanol/net acre

EPA RFS2 2022 crop yield data; 2.71 gal ethanol/bushel of corn; Shurson coproduct ratios M Acres
Stover utilization could further reduce the need for 

incremental bioenergy acres

Only 1/3 of the 

production acre is 

used for ethanol

Assumes 1 ton of biomass taken from EPA projected corn on corn acres in 2022 M Acres

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gross Corn to 

Ethanol (A)

Corn from 

DDGS (A)

Soy from 

DDGS (A)

Switchgrass A 

Not Reqd

Net Acres 

Reqd
23

200

220

240

260

280

99/0000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/0909/1010/1111/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/19

World maize and soy area

World maize and soy area less ethanol

Biofuel demand brings land into 

production ~ 2 years earlier Area harvested (million ha)

Biofuels must be considered in the context of expansion to 

meet food and feed demand

15 billion gal of U.S. corn ethanol per year utilizes 0.5% of 

global crop acres
Summary

• Yield projections need to be updated and should take into 

account uncertainty associated with projections.

• There is statistical evidence that there is a shift in the rate of 

increase for yield trend lines. This shift is due to changes in 

technology. Forward looking yield projections should reflect 

higher rates of gain.

• Global yields also need to be updated to reflect technology 

adoption.

• Biofuel net acreage needs to accurately reflect co-product 

displacement.

• Error propagation needs to be included to understand the 

accuracy of land use prediction.

• Land use change attributed to biofuels should be looked at in 

the context of food production for a growing population.

24
5000 years of plant breeding delivered 

substantial yield gains
26

United States Corn yields will reach 300 bu/ac

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1990 2010 2030

Avg corn yield (bu/ac)

Historical yield

30 year trend

Biotech yield

Molecular breeding

Future yield potential based on 

Monsanto estimates

– Marker assisted breeding has doubled 

breeding gain

– Current biotech traits protect genetic 

potential

– Next generation biotech traits will 

further protect and increase yield 

potentials

26

Drought

Nitrogen

Yield

Broad-acre yield family of traits
2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers 

Visual Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions

Discovery Phase 1

Proof of Concept

Phase 2

Early Development

Phase 3

Adv. Development

Phase 4

Pre-Launch

Launch

DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN COLLABORATION 

WITH

CONTROL HYBRID

(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE

(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE FIELD TRIALS – 2007

2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT

Water stress 

exposure during 

different stages of 

development can 

have significant 

effect on corn yield.

Monsanto’s lead 

drought-tolerance 

trait shows a 

significant yield 

advantage compared 

with controls under 

drought stress.
In Continued Field Testing, Nitrogen Use Efficiency Leads 

Show Yield Improvement Under Normal Nitrogen

Discovery Phase 1

Proof of Concept

Phase 2

Early Development

Phase 3

Adv. Development

Phase 4

Pre-Launch

Launch

NITROGEN-UTILIZATION CORN FAMILY: Lead Project COLLABORATION 

WITH

•Targets ways to 

use nitrogen 

more efficiently, 

exploring 

potential to 

boost yield under 

normal nitrogen 

conditions or 

stabilize it in low 

nitrogen 

environments

•Under normal 

nitrogen 

conditions, lead 

trait has 

demonstrated 

yield advantages 

in multiple 

backgrounds over 

multiple years

Yield Increase (bu/A)

TRIALS IN MULTIPLE 

HYBRID BACKGROUNDS

(16 LOC)

Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested. Same bar color in 

different tests and different years indicates same hybrid was used.

All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.

2006 YIELD TRIALS:

SUFFICIENT N LEVELS

(37 LOC TOTAL)

2007

2007 YIELD TRIALS:

SUFFICIENT N LEVELS

(20 LOC TOTAL)

Statistically significant @ p≤0.10 *

-2

TRIALS IN MULTIPLE 

HYBRID BACKGROUNDS

(15 LOC)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

*

* * * * *

2005

*

2005 

YIELD 

TRIALS: 

(23 LOC 

TOTAL)

LEAD PERFORMANCE UNDER NORMAL NITROGEN CONDITIONS

2006
Yield improvement of corn vs. other crops

How did this happen?

• Breeding, biotech and agronomics

• Excellent genetics – diploid, large diversity pool, extensive improvements over wild varieties

U.S. AVERAGE CROP YIELDS (1866–2006)

Corn

SOURCE: USDA, NASS

Sorghum

Barley

Wheat

Soybean

Oats

Rye

Cotton

Yield (tonnes/ha)
21000 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Yield (bu/a)

Population (stalks/a)

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986 1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 2006

2007

1996-2007

1982-1995

Conventional

Biotech Era

Yield Gains With Plant Population Increases
Improvements in Agronomic Practices Will Continue to 

Positively Impact Yield 

BREEDING AND BIOTECH ARE CRITICAL, BUT SO ARE OTHER CONTRIBUTORS

IMPROVEMENTS IN AG PRACTICES HAVE CONTRIBUTED ABOUT 40% TO YIELD GAINS

AGRONOMIC PRACTICE BENEFIT

Fungicides Using Headline in an acre of corn can bring a 10 to 

13.5 Bu/A benefit to the grower.

Plant Populations More strategic planting densities can increase 

bushels per acre, even with today’s traits and 

genetics.

Precision Agriculture More precise use of every acre – from GPS-guided 

tractors to GIS to yield mapping – allows growers to 

maximize use of inputs and land to get the best 

return on investment.

Seed Treatments New treatments to be commercialized with the 

launch of SmartStax should add an incremental 

yield benefit. 

TWIN ROW PLANTING IS RELATIVELY NEW

TECHNOLOGY THAT IS A WAY TO INCREASE YIELDS
SmartStaxTM Brand Creates Platform that Revolutionizes 

Traits Game With Superior Performance in One Package

Discovery Phase 1

Proof of Concept

Phase 2

Early Development

Phase 3

Adv. Development

Phase 4

Pre-Launch

Launch

First-Ever 8-Trait Stack Being Developed to Create New Value and Opportunity for Farmers

ABOVE-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION

BELOW-GROUND INSECT PROTECTION

WEED CONTROL SYSTEM

Durability

• Combining multiple traits in single seed 

helps ensure sustainable insect protection 

and weed control year after year:

• Combined modes-of-action for insect 

protection 

• Combined herbicide tolerant traits

Performance

• Research is demonstrating that 

complementary trait platforms offer 

superior, season-long performance, 

notably:

• Enhanced control of broader spectrum 

of insects

• Comprehensive protection against 

established, emerging secondary pests

• Industry’s best weed control system

SmartStax is not registered by the U.S. EPA. It is a violation of federal law to promote or sell an unregistered pesticide.
0

50

100

150

200

1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935

Yield (bu/ac)

Open Pollinated Era 

(b = 0)

Mass selection in OP’s was not effective for yield

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

U.S. Average Corn Yields
0

50

100

150

200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

Yield (bu/ac)

Open Pollinated Era 

(b = 0)

Double Cross Era 

(b = 1.0)

Organized plant breeding enabled yield gains

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE 

CROSS

COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG 

TECHNOLOGIES
Courtesy University of California, UC Libraries

Hybrid corn enabled mechanized agriculture
0

50

100

150

200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

Yield (bu/ac)

Open Pollinated Era 

(b = 0)

Double Cross Era 

(b = 1.0)

Single Cross Era 

(b = 1.8)

Impact of breeding and production technology

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE 

CROSS

SINGLE CROSS

COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG 

TECHNOLOGIES
Corn yields continue to climb 

without increasing total inputs

SOURCE: March 2006. Crop Science. Ref# 46:528-543

U.S. Average Corn Yields

DOUBLE 

CROSS

SINGLE CROSS

BIOTECH

0

50

100

150

200

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

Yield (bu/ac)

COLORED BOXES DENOTE THE INTRODUCTION OF SIGNIFICANT AG 

TECHNOLOGIES

Open Pollinated Era 

(b = 0)

Double Cross Era 

(b = 1.0)

Single Cross Era 

(b = 1.8)
The Combination of Breeding, Agronomic Practice 

Improvements and Biotech Can Maximize Yield Gains

AVERAGE CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES

GERMPLAMS & CURRENT TRAITS BIOTECH BREEDING AG PRACTICE IMPROVEMENTS

BUSHELS PER ACRE

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300
Economics of hybrid adoption have been studied for many years

Griliches Z (1957) Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of 

technological change. J Econometric Soc. 25:501

About 50 million ac of open pollinated varieties (OPV) of maize are grown 

each year

Country OPV area OPV area 

(million ac) (% total corn)

Mexico 11.16 71%

Brazil 10.58 27%

India 9.46 54%

Romania 3.95 55%

Tanzania 3.29 95%

Malawi 2.90 84%

Russia Fed. 2.47 45%

Philippines 2.22 41%

Indonesia 1.78 20%

Kenya 1.33 36%
The Bottom Lines

The rate of gain of crop yields are driven in 

large part by breeding technologies.

The rates of yield gain has been increasing due 

to molecular breeding and biotechnology.

Biotech traits are available and essential to 

control many of the major insect pests 

Outside of the U.S., there is significant 

opportunity for crop yield improvement
2009 vs. 2015 

(with yield and production improvements)

•2009 =15.2m acres = 10.5B gal. Ethanol

•2015 =18.3m acres = 15.0B gal. Ethanol

•DDGS per acre offsets

•1/3 ac. for beef production

•1/2 ac. for pork production
2009 vs. 2015 

(with yield and production improvements)

10.5 billion gal 15 billion gal

Net Land required

15.2 M acres

Net Land required

18.3 M acres
The Question

...is not whether we will double yields with fewer inputs/bu.

...it is.... what could we do with 25B bu. of corn 

if the ROW is fundamentally self-sufficient in corn?
Rusty Freeland 

Invention is the Best Way to Predict the Future

(10 cM between marks) (5 log(pvalue) units between marks)

Yield

Test Weight

Total Damaged Plants Stay Green

Rind Penetrometer Protogyny

Plant Height

Moisture

Intactness

GDU pollen

shed Ear Height

Gray Leaf Spot

Chrom

Markers

Consider it Done!
Global corn yields are significantly lower than the US

• Insert Mike E’s slide

45