AEO2015

Table 8.2. Cost and performance characteristics of new central station electricity generating technologies

Contingency Factors

Technology

Online

Year1

Size 

(MW)

Lead 

time 

(years)

Base

Overnight

Cost in 

2014 

(2013

$/kW)

Project

Contingency 

Factor2

Technological 

Optimism 

Factor3

Total 

Overnight 

Cost in 20144

(2013 $/kW)

Variable 

O&M5

(2013 

$/mWh)

Fixed 

O&M 

(2013 $/ 

kW/yr.)

Heatrate

6 in 2014 

(Btu/ 

kWh)

nth-of-akind 

Heatrate 

(Btu/kWh

Scrubbed Coal New 2018 1300 4 2,726 1.07 1.00 2,917 4.47 31.16 8,800 8,740 

Coal-Gasification Integrated 

Comb Cycle (IGCC) 2018 1200 4 3,483 1.07 1.00 3,727 7.22 51.37 8,700 7,450 

IGCC with Carbon sequestion 2018 520 4 5,891 1.07 1.03 6,492 8.44 72.80 10,700 8,307 

Conv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle 2017 620 3 869 1.05 1.00 912 3.60 13.16 7,050 6,800 

Adv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle (CC) 2017 400 3 942 1.08 1.00 1,017 3.27 15.36 6,430 6,333 

Adv CC with Carbon 

sequestration 2017 340 3 1,845 1.08 1.04 2,072 6.78 31.77 7,525 7,493 

Conv Comb Turbine8 2016 85 2 922 1.05 1.00 968 15.44 7.34 10,783 10,450 

Adv Comb Turbine 2016 210 2 639 1.05 1.00 671 10.37 7.04 9,750 8,550 

Fuel Cells 2017 10 3 6,042 1.05 1.10 6,978 42.97 0.00 9,500 6,960 

Adv Nuclear 2022 2234 6 4,646 1.10 1.05 5,366 2.14 93.23 10,479 10,479 

Distributed Generation-Base 2017 2 3 1,407 1.05 1.00 1,477 7.75 17.44 9,015 8,900 

Distributed Generation - Peak 2016 1 2 1,689 1.05 1.00 1,774 7.75 17.44 10,015 9,880 

Biomass 2018 50 4 3,399 1.07 1.01 3,659 5.26 105.58 13,500 13,500 

Geothermal7,9 2018 50 4 2,331 1.05 1.00 2,448 0.00 112.85 9,516 9,516 

Municipal Solid Waste 

Conventional 2017 50 3 7,730 1.07 1.00 8,271 8.74 392.60 14,878 18,000 

Hydropower9 2018 500 4 2,410 1.10 1.00 2,651 5.76 15.15 9,516 9,516 

Wind 2017 100 3 1,850 1.07 1.00 1,980 0.00 39.53 9,516 9,516 

Wind Offshore 2018 400 4 4,476 1.10 1.25 6,154 0.00 73.96 9,516 9,516 

Solar Thermal7 2017 100 3 3,787 1.07 1.00 4,052 0.00 67.23 9,516 9,516 

Photovoltaic7,10 2016 150 2 3,123 1.05 1.00 3,279 0.00 24.68 9,516 9,516 

1

Online year represents the first year that a new unit could be completed, given an order date of 2014. 

2

A contingency allowance is defined by the American Association of Cost Engineers as the “specific provision for unforeseeable elements of costs within a defined project 

scope; particularly important where previous experience has shown that unforeseeable events which will increase costs are likely to occur.” 3

The technological optimism factor is applied to the first four units of a new, unproven design; it reflects the demonstrated tendency to underestimate actual costs for a 

first-of-a-kind unit. 4

Overnight capital cost including contingency factors, excluding regional multipliers and learning effects. Interest charges are also excluded. These represent costs of new 

projects initiated in 2014.

5

O&M = Operations and maintenance.

6

For hydro, wind, solar and geothermal technologies, the heat rate shown represents the average heat rate for conventional thermal generation as of 2013. This is used for 

purposes of calculating primary energy consumption displaced for these resources, and does not imply an estimate of their actual energy conversion efficiency. 7

Capital costs are shown before investment tax credits are applied.

8

Combustion turbine units can be built by the model prior to 2016 if necessary to meet a given region’s reserve margin. 9

Because geothermal and hydro cost and performance characteristics are specific for each site, the table entries represent the cost of the least expensive plant that could 

be built in the Northwest Power Pool region, where most of the proposed sites are located. 10Costs and capacities are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity.

Sources: For the AEO2015 cycle, EIA continues to use the previously developed cost estimates for utility-scale electric generating plants, updated by external consultants 

for AEO2013. This report can be found at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/. The costs were assumed to be consistent with plants that would be ordered in 2012, 

and learning from capacity built in 2012 and 2013 has been applied in the initial costs above. Wind capital costs were updated for AEO2015 using recent reports from trade 

press and reports from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Site-specific costs for geothermal were provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, "Updated 

U.S. Geothermal Supply Curve,” February 2010.