APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................10B­1

10B.2 STANDARDS CASE EFFICACY FORECAST, LAMP STOCK AND

LUMEN OUTPUT.................................................................................................10B­1

10B.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS..10B­7

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10B.2.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards

Case (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions

from 2012 to 2042......................................................................................10B­1

Table 10B.2.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from

2012 to 2042 ..............................................................................................10B­2

Table 10B.2.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from

2012 to 2042 ..............................................................................................10B­2

Table 10B.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial IRL (65W BR

Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads) ................................10B­8

Table 10B.3.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)..........................................10B­8

Table 10B.3.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (10 Percent

Lumen Increase Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads) ...................................10B­8

Table 10B.3.4 Cumulative NPV Results for Commercial IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)....................................................10B­9

Table 10B.3.5 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)....................................................10B­9

Table 10B.3.6 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)........................................................................10B­9

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10B.2.1 Average Efficacy of the Commercial IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity).............................................................................10B­3

Figure 10B.2.2 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity).............................................................................10B­4

Figure 10B.2.3 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (10 Percent Lumen

Increase Sensitivity)...................................................................................10B­5

10B­i
Figure 10B.2.4 Commercial IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity).................................................................................................10B­6

Figure 10B.2.5 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity).................................................................................................10B­6

Figure 10B.2.6 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity).................................................................................................10B­7

10B­ii
APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACTS

ANALYSIS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, DOE presents inputs and results for two additional IRL sensitivities.

DOE presents the efficacy forecast, lamp stock, lumen output, NES and NPV results for the IRL

65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity and for the IRL 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity.

10B.2 STANDARDS CASE EFFICACY FORECAST, LAMP STOCK AND LUMEN

OUTPUT

A key aspect of DOE’s estimates of NES and NPV is the proportions of future lamp

shipments meeting different efficacies for the base case (without new standards) and each of the

standards cases (with new standards). Because key inputs to the calculation of the NES and

NPV are dependent on the estimate of the efficacies shipped and efficacies in the stock, it is

important to know the projected efficacy­distribution of lamp shipments. Table 10B.2.1 presents

the efficacy distribution of lamp shipments for commercial IRL under the 65W BR lamp

substitution sensitivity.

Table 10B.2.1 Commercial Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology

Proportions of Commercial IRL

Shipped (%)

Base

Case

Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity)

1 2 3

65W BR Incandescent 0 10 10 21

Baseline Halogen 82 ­ ­ ­

2012 1 Improved

Halogen

0 70 ­ ­

2 HIR 18 20 90 ­

3 Improved HIR 0 0 0 79

Total 100 100 100 100

65W BR Incandescent 0 10 10 24

Baseline Halogen 54 ­ ­ ­

2042 1 Improved

Halogen

0 45 ­ ­

2 HIR 46 45 90 ­

3 Improved HIR 0 0 0 76

Total 100 100 100 100

10B­1
Table 10B.2.2 presents the efficacy distribution of lamp shipments for residential IRL under the

65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity.

Table 10B.2.2 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology

Proportions of Residential IRL Shipped

Base

Case

Standards Case

(65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity)

1 2 3

65W BR Incandescent 0 7 7 14

Baseline Halogen 100 ­ ­ ­

2012 1 Improved

Halogen

0 83 ­ ­

2 HIR 0 0 83 ­

3 Improved HIR 0 0 0 86

Total 100 100 100 100

65W BR Incandescent 0 10 10 28

Baseline Halogen 100 ­ ­ ­

2042 1 Improved

Halogen

0 90 ­ ­

2 HIR 0 0 90 ­

3 Improved HIR 0 0 0 72

Total 100 100 100 100

Table 10B.2.3 presents the efficacy distribution of lamp shipments for residential IRL under the

10 percent lumen increase sensitivity.

Table 10B.2.3 Residential Incandescent Reflector Lamps: Base Case and Standards Case

(10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) Efficacy Distributions from 2012 to 2042

Year Level Technology

Proportions of Residential IRL Shipped

Base

Case

Standards Case

(10 percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity)

1 2 3

Baseline Halogen 100 ­ ­ ­

2012

to

2042

1 Improved

Halogen

0 100 ­ ­

2 HIR 0 0 100 ­

3 Improved HIR 0 0 0 100

Total 100 100 100 100

The calculation of the NES and NPV is dependent on the estimate of the average efficacy

in the lamp stock. The following figures present the average efficacy of the IRL stock for each

CSL under the two sensitivity scenarios. The average efficacy numbers do not include stock

10B­2
moving to reflector CFL or other emerging technologies overtime. Figure 10B.2.1 and Figure

10B.2.2 present the base case and standards case average efficacy forecasts of IRL in the

commercial and residential sectors, respectively, from 2012 to 2042 under the 65W BR lamp

substitution sensitivity. Though 65W BR30 and BR40 lamps are not considered to be covered

IRL product, the average efficacy forecasts below include both covered IRL product and lowerefficacy incandescent 65W BR30 lamp.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

A

v

era

g

e

Effic

a

c

y (lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.1 Average Efficacy of the Commercial IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity)

10B­3
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

A

v

era

g

e

Effic

a

c

y (lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.2 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity)

Figure 10B.2.2 presents the base case and standards case efficacy distribution of the residential

IRL stock from 2012 to 2042 under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity.

10B­4
0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

A

v

era

g

e

Effic

a

c

y (lm/W)

Base­Case Efficacy Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.3 Average Efficacy of the Residential IRL Stock (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity)

Changes in efficacy can lead to changes in lumen output. For IRL, the average lumen output

numbers do not include stock moving to reflector CFL or other emerging technologies overtime.

Figure 10B.2.4 presents the lumens serviced in the base case and standards case by the

commercial IRL stock under the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity from 2012 to 2042.

Figure 10B.2.4 presents the lumens serviced in the base case and standards case by the

residential IRL stock under the 65W BR lamp substitution sensitivity from 2012 to 2042.

10B­5
0.0E+00

1.0E+10

2.0E+10

3.0E+10

4.0E+10

5.0E+10

6.0E+10

7.0E+10

8.0E+10

9.0E+10

L

u

m

e

n

s

S

ervic

e

d (lm)

Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.4 Commercial IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

3.5E+11

3.0E+11

L

u

m

e

n

s

S

ervic

e

d (lm)

2.5E+11

2.0E+11

1.5E+11

1.0E+11

5.0E+10

0.0E+00

Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.5 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (65W BR Lamp Substitution Sensitivity)

10B­6
Figure 10B.2.6 presents the lumens serviced in the base case and standards case by the

residential IRL stock under the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity from 2012 to 2042.

0.0E+00

5.0E+10

1.0E+11

1.5E+11

2.0E+11

2.5E+11

3.0E+11

3.5E+11

L

u

m

e

n

s

S

ervic

e

d (lm)

Base­Case Lumen Forecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Figure 10B.2.6 Residential IRL Lumens Serviced (10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

10B.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The following tables provide NES results for each CSL considered for incandescent

reflector lamps under the 65W BR lamp substitution and 10 percent lumen increase sensitivities.

Results are cumulative to 2042 and are shown as primary energy savings in units of quads. In

general, both of these sensitivity scenarios reflect lower energy savings than the main shipment

scenario, as both sensitivities incorporate higher­wattage or same­wattage lamp designs. In

contrast, the main shipment scenario utilizes reduced­wattage lamp designs.

10B­7
Table 10B.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Commercial IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level

NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.36 0.12 0.21

2 0.70 0.23 0.41

3 0.85 0.27 0.50

Table 10B.3.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp

Substitution Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level

NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.51 0.15 0.29

2 0.92 0.27 0.52

3 1.04 0.30 0.59

Table 10B.3.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Residential IRL (10 Percent

Lumen Increase Sensitivity) (2012­2042) (quads)

Candidate Standard

Level

NES

quads

Undiscounted Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.47 0.14 0.26

2 0.72 0.21 0.41

3 1.07 0.31 0.60

The following tables provides NPV results for the candidate standards levels considered

for incandescent reflector lamps under the 65W BR lamp substitution and 10 percent lumen

increase sensitivities. Results are cumulative and are shown as the discounted value of these

savings in dollar terms.

10B­8
Table 10B.3.4 Cumulative NPV Results for Commercial IRL (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level

NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.74 1.35

2 1.43 2.64

3 2.55 4.75

Table 10B.3.5 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (65W BR Lamp Substitution

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level

NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 1.13 2.29

2 2.21 4.41

3 3.07 6.15

Table 10B.3.6 Cumulative NPV Results for Residential IRL (10 Percent Lumen Increase

Sensitivity) (billion 2006$)

Candidate Standard

Level

NPV

billion 2006$

Discounted at 7% Discounted at 3%

1 0.82 1.73

2 1.44 2.96

3 2.76 5.64

10B­9