11-i

CHAPTER 11. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 11-1

11.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 11-1

11.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 11-1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast.................................................................. 11-2

Table 11.3.2 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 1 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 11-3

Table 11.3.3 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 2 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 11-3

Table 11.3.4 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 3 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 11-4

Table 11.3.5 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 4 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 11-4

Table 11.3.6 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 5 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 11-5

Table 11.3.7 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 1 Forecast........................... 11-5

Table 11.3.8 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 2 Forecast........................... 11-6

Table 11.3.9 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 3 Forecast........................... 11-6

Table 11.3.10 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 4 Forecast........................... 11-7

Table 11.3.11 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 5 Forecast........................... 11-7

Table 11.3.12 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 1 Forecast ....................... 11-8

Table 11.3.13 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 2 Forecast ....................... 11-8

Table 11.3.14 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 3 Forecast ....................... 11-9

Table 11.3.15 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 4 Forecast ....................... 11-9

Table 11.3.16 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 5 Forecast ..................... 11-10

Table 11.3.17 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2042 Under ASHRAE 

Products Efficiency Levels.............................................................................. 11-10
11-1

CHAPTER 11. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and 

generation that result for each Efficiency Level by plant type, as well as changes in commercial

electricity consumption. 

11.2 METHODOLOGY

For each of the considered Efficiency Levels, DOE calculated total power-sector 

emissions based on output from the NEMS-BT model (see chapter 9 for description of the 

model).

11.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for commercial sector electricity

consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation 

capacity by fuel type. Results are presented in five-year increments through 2035. Beyond 2035, 

an extrapolation through 2043 for each Efficiency Level represents a simple replication of the 

2035 results. 

The results from the AEO2011 Reference Case are shown in Table 11.3.1. 

The results for water-cooled and evaporatively-cooled products by Efficiency Level are 

presented in Tables 11.3.2 through 11.3.6. The Results VRF water-source heat pumps by

Efficiency Level are presented in Tables 11.3.7 through 11.3.11, and the results for computer 

room air conditioners are presented in Tables 11.3.12 through 11.3.16. Each table shows 

forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 11.2, for total U.S. electricity 

generation and installed capacity.

The considered Efficiency Levels for ASHRAE products reduce energy consumption 

compared to the AEO2011 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model 

for any of the reported Efficiency Levels range from 0.00 to 0.27 percent of commercial sector 

electricity consumption in the year 2035.
11-2

Table 11.3.1 AEO 2011 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO 2011 Reference Case

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,359 1,455 1,348 1,394 1,461 1,538 1,613

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,275 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3

Coal (TWh) 2,013 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218

Gas (TWh) 759 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283

Petroleum (TWh) 122 45 43 44 44 45 46

Nuclear (TWh) 782 803 839 877 877 877 874

Renewables (TWh) 360 414 556 608 673 703 724

Total (TWh)4 4,036 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146

Installed Generating Capacity 5

Coal (GW) 314 322 322 323 326 329 334

Other Fossil (GW)6 439 471 471 470 490 530 571

Nuclear (GW) 100 101 106 110 110 110 110

Renewables (GW) 100 132 154 159 169 176 180

Total (GW)7 953 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2011: Energy Consumption

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electricity Sales by Sector

3

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2011: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells
11-3

Table 11.3.2 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 1 

Forecast

Table 11.3.3 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 2 

Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.001 0.012 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.001 -0.009 -0.001 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.006 -0.009 -0.007 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 0.00 -0.005 -0.005

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.007 -0.014 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.014

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) -0.001 -0.006 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.001 0.004 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.005 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.005 -0.01 -0.005 -0.005

Extrapolation
11-4

Table 11.3.4 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 3 

Forecast

Table 11.3.5 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 4 

Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.008 -0.021 -0.035 -0.038 -0.037 -0.036 -0.036

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.007 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 -0.011 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.007 -0.016 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.006 -0.011 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.008 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.012 -0.031 -0.050 -0.053 -0.052 -0.051 -0.051

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.006 -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.011 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.011 -0.024 -0.026 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.009 -0.016 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.012 -0.018 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019

Extrapolation
11-5

Table 11.3.6 Water-Cooled and Evaporatively-Cooled Products Efficiency Level 5 

Forecast

Table 11.3.7 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 2043

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.002 -0.013 -0.032 -0.052 -0.054 -0.052 -0.052 -0.051

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.004 -0.007 -0.010 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.011 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.012 -0.025 -0.027 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.010 -0.016 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.012 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Extrapolation
11-6

Table 11.3.8 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

Table 11.3.9 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.028 -0.065 -0.105 -0.147 -0.157 -0.158 -0.160

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.003 0.022 -0.014 -0.021 -0.015 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.003 -0.016 -0.006 -0.023 -0.034 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040 -0.040

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.002 -0.005 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.025 -0.051 -0.055 -0.069 -0.069 -0.069 -0.069

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.012 -0.020 -0.033 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.016 -0.025 -0.038 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052

Extrapolation
11-7

Table 11.3.10 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

Table 11.3.11 VRF Water-Source Heat Pumps Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.067 -0.155 -0.250 -0.350 -0.372 -0.376 -0.381

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.006 0.053 -0.034 -0.049 -0.036 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.006 -0.037 -0.014 -0.054 -0.080 -0.096 -0.096 -0.096 -0.096

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.009 -0.005 -0.012 -0.009 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.007 -0.060 -0.122 -0.130 -0.164 -0.164 -0.164 -0.164

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.028 -0.048 -0.077 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.015 -0.038 -0.060 -0.090 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.122 -0.284 -0.457 -0.640 -0.680 -0.689 -0.697

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.012 0.097 -0.062 -0.090 -0.066 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091 -0.091

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.012 -0.068 -0.025 -0.099 -0.146 -0.176 -0.176 -0.176 -0.176

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.016 -0.009 -0.022 -0.017 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,910 5,145 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.013 -0.110 -0.223 -0.238 -0.301 -0.301 -0.301 -0.301

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.018 -0.052 -0.087 -0.142 -0.205 -0.205 -0.205 -0.205

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.007 -0.007 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.028 -0.070 -0.110 -0.164 -0.227 -0.227 -0.227 -0.227

Extrapolation
11-8

Table 11.3.12 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 1 Forecast

Table 11.3.13 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,761 1,886 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.011 -0.019 -0.024 -0.027 -0.029 -0.030 -0.029

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,069 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.003 0.022 -0.006 -0.006 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.003 -0.015 -0.002 -0.007 -0.008 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 -0.010 -0.015 -0.013 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,196 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,760 1,885 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.078 -0.184 -0.301 -0.351 -0.385 -0.392 -0.392

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.007 0.060 -0.040 -0.058 -0.043 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 1,000 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.007 -0.042 -0.016 -0.064 -0.096 -0.097 -0.097 -0.097 -0.097

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.010 -0.006 -0.014 -0.011 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,663 4,911 5,146 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.008 -0.070 -0.144 -0.157 -0.165 -0.165 -0.165 -0.165

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 470 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.011 -0.033 -0.056 -0.093 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,146 1,195 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.017 -0.045 -0.071 -0.108 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124 -0.124

Extrapolation
11-9

Table 11.3.14 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 3 Forecast

Table 11.3.15 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,526 1,636 1,759 1,884 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.69 -1.13 -1.32 -1.45 -1.48 -1.48

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.03 0.23 -0.15 -0.22 -0.16 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,148 1,283 Gas (TWh) -0.03 -0.16 -0.06 -0.24 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36 -0.36

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,436 4,662 4,910 5,145 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.03 -0.26 -0.54 -0.59 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 326 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 490 530 571 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.04 -0.12 -0.21 -0.35 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,195 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.07 -0.17 -0.27 -0.41 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,525 1,635 1,758 1,882 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.68 -1.61 -2.64 -3.08 -3.38 -3.43 -3.45

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,799 1,907 2,068 2,137 2,218 Coal (TWh) 0.06 0.53 -0.35 -0.51 -0.38 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,147 1,282 Gas (TWh) -0.06 -0.37 -0.14 -0.56 -0.84 -0.85 -0.85 -0.85 -0.85

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 -0.05 -0.12 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,435 4,662 4,909 5,144 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.07 -0.61 -1.26 -1.37 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 325 329 334 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 490 529 570 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.10 -0.29 -0.49 -0.82 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,095 1,145 1,194 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.15 -0.39 -0.62 -0.95 -1.09 -1.09 -1.09 -1.09

Extrapolation
11-10

Table 11.3.16 Computer Room Air Conditioners Efficiency Level 5 Forecast

Table 11.3.17 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2042

for the Efficiency Levels that DOE considered in this rulemaking.

Table 11.3.17 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2042 Under ASHRAE 

Products Efficiency Levels

Efficiency 

Level 1

Efficiency 

Level 2

Efficiency 

Level 3

Efficiency 

Level 4

Efficiency 

Level 5

Water-cooled and 

Evaporatively-cooled 

Products 0.005 0.005 0.013 0.019 0.019

VRF Water-source Heat 

Pumps 0.000 0.003 0.052 0.124 0.227

Computer Room Air 

Conditioners 0.009 0.124 0.469 1.09 1.81

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2011 Reference Case

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2042

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,349 1,416 1,525 1,634 1,756 1,880 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.13 -2.68 -4.38 -5.12 -5.61 -5.71 -5.73

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,864 1,800 1,906 2,068 2,137 2,217 Coal (TWh) 0.10 0.88 -0.58 -0.84 -0.63 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73 -0.73

Gas (TWh) 1,010 999 1,000 999 1,147 1,282 Gas (TWh) -0.10 -0.61 -0.24 -0.93 -1.40 -1.41 -1.41 -1.41 -1.41

Petroleum (TWh) 45 43 44 44 45 46 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Nuclear (TWh) 803 839 877 877 877 874 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

Renewables (TWh) 414 556 608 673 703 724 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.15 -0.09 -0.21 -0.16 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15

Total (TWh) 4,136 4,236 4,435 4,661 4,908 5,143 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.12 -1.02 -2.10 -2.28 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 322 322 323 325 329 333 Coal (GW) 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13

Other Fossil (GW) 471 471 469 489 529 570 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.17 -0.48 -0.82 -1.36 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64 -1.64

Nuclear (GW) 101 106 110 110 110 110 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Renewables (GW) 132 154 159 169 176 180 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.07 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Total (GW) 1,027 1,052 1,061 1,094 1,144 1,194 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.25 -0.65 -1.03 -1.57 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81

Extrapolation
11-11

REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference 

Case Service Report, 2010. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2010). 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/>