From: Bob Smith [mailto:bsmith@federalpacific.com]

Sent: Monday, October 10, 2011 4:52 PM

To: 'Robert Berman'

Cc: 'Phil Hopkinson'; 'Caskey, John'; Brian Coffey; 'Alex Hofmann'; 'Andre w Delaski'; Aris Marantan; 'Art

Rosenfeld'; 'Bob Saint'; Caitlin Johnson; 'Carlos Gaytan'; 'Charlie Drexler'; 'Charlie Stevens'; 'Chris Bolduc';

'Silcox, Clark'; 'Creevy, Jim'; 'Dan Cohen'; 'Daniel Young'; 'Eric Peterson'; 'Freeman, Jeremiah'; 'Gary

Fernstrom'; 'Greg Coulter'; 'Greg Rosenquist'; 'Hirsch, Bruce R'; 'James Lass'; 'Jennifer Tiedeman'; 'Jerry

Corkran'; 'Jerry Hodge'; 'Jerry Sc hoen'; 'Joanna Mauer'; 'John Cymb alsky'; 'John Rossetti'; 'Katie

Coughlin'; 'Ken Winder'; 'Mahesh P. Sampat'; 'Matt Miller'; Matthew Nardotti; 'Meg Waltner'; 'Meyers,

Aaron'; 'Michael Hyland'; Michael Rivest; 'Millure, Dave'; 'Phil Harter'; 'Polinski, Raymond'; 'Puesh Kumar';

'Rick Anderson'; 'Rob Greeson'; 'Robert van Buskirk'; 'Robin Roy'; 'Ryan, Paul'; 'Scott Beck'; 'Simmons,

Chuck'; 'Steve Nadel'; 'Steve Rosenstock'; 'Tim Ba llo'; 'Tom Eckman'; 'Wes Patterson'; Zhimei Luo;

rjstahara@centralmoloneyinc.com; 'Ali Ghafourian'; 'Ned Brush'; 'Dave Brender'; jay.ballard@schneiderelectric.com; Kenneth.Harden@schneider-electric.com; 'Tom Patzner'; 'Steve Nizinski'; 'Richard Parker'

Subject: RE: Distribution Transformer Loading and other Analyses

Dear Robert:

Phil’s paper utilizes a lot of good and diverse loading situations. I believe his analysis is going to be as

accurate as we’ll find anywhere. Tom Paztner wrote an interesting follow

‐ up (attached) to his

comments during the last meeting. His comments started me thinking about another source for loading

on 600 volt dry transformers. Th at source, which has not been fully utilized, includes the many

consulting engineers (Fluor, Black & Veatch, Kiewit, Burns & McDonald, O’Neal, CH2MHill, etc.) that are

specifying the power ratings of the LV Drys based on their connected loads. I’d encourage those doing

the te chnical loading analysis for this co mmittee to utilize this source. Phil’s data; however, may still be

much more valuable, because it is empirical by measurements actually made at installations.

Robert, in the area of economics I would value greatly your listing of attributes that fall into the category

of “economically justifiabl e”. For instance, in the attached note that I sent last week I expressed great

concern that the “A” and “B” values were not appropriate for our ICI customers. What do you think?

How do you feel about the appropriate payback period for an incremental investment by a hospital,

paper mill, or a tire plan t? I would greatly value your input on these subjects. For I am also searching

for the right answer to the equipment efficiency question, whether it be a gasoline engine, steam

turbine or a transformer.

Going back for a moment on your concern for the loading on transf ormers, I thi nk I can say with almost

perfect accuracy, that if we establish efficiency levels another 1⁄2 percentage point higher for the Low

Voltage Transformers, the consultants and end users, as they are faced with substantially increased

pricing, will definitely start buying smaller size KVA ratings with the effect that th e loading as a

percentage of nameplate rating will exceed the assumed 35% that we are now using. For the sake of

energy conservation I don’t think this is a good outcome.

Sincerely,

Bob Smith, PE

Product Manager

Federal Pacific

601 Old Airport Road

Bristol, VA 24201TEL: (276) 645-8836

FAX: (276) 645-8212

CELL: (276) 591-6143

Email: bsmith@federalpacific.com

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From: Robert Berman [mailto:bermaneconomics@gmail.com]

Sent: Monday, October 10, 2011 2:40 PM

To: Richard Parker

Cc: Phil Hopkinson; Caskey, John; Brian Coffey; Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art

Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bruce Smith; Caitlin Johnson; Ca rlos Gaytan; Charlie Drexler; Charlie Stevens; Chris

Bolduc; Silcox, Clark; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary

Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Jerry

Corkran; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rosse tti; Katie Coughlin; Ken

Winder; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matt Miller; Matthew Nard otti; Meg Waltner; Meyers, Aaron; Michael Hyland;

Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Phil Harter; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Rick Anderson; Rob Greeson;

Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck; Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel;

Steve Rosenstock; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes Patterson; Zhimei Luo;

( rjstahara@centralmoloneyinc.com ); Ali Ghafourian ( aghafourian@ermco-eci.com ); Ned Brush

( Ned.efbrush@gmail.com ); Dave Brender ( dbrender@cda.copper.org ); jay.ballard@schneiderelectric.com ; Kenneth.Harden@schneider-electric.com ; Tom Patzner ( thomas.patzner@us.schneiderelectric.com ); Steve Nizinski

Subject: Re: Distribution Transformer Loading and other Analyses



### Richard,

I have carefully reviewed the HVOLT analysis . Although I am not an engineer, and will not

comment on particular engineeri ng designs, I am concerned about a number of the assumptions

made regarding electricity utility system economics as well as th e transformer prices. The latter

appear at odds with published market data and appear to misquote the DOE PTSD. As the

analytical conclusions appear to be riven by the assumptions, it is important to put the

assumptions in their proper context. Attached are my detailed comments.