WORLD BIOFUELS
316 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

World Ethanol

The world ethanol price increased 13.7% in 2008, to $1.76 per gallon. It is projected to decrease by almost 16%, 

to $1.48 per gallon, in 2009 because of the dramatic drop in crude oil prices coupled with a signifi cant reduction 

in U.S. ethanol imports. The ethanol price continues its downward trend until 2011, after which it begins to 

increase because of higher ethanol demand from the U.S. brought about by the EISA 2007 biofuel mandates. 

World net trade increased by 20.2% in 2008; it decreases in 2009 by 1.3%. As world demand for ethanol increases 

more than production over the projection period, net trade is expected to rise by 302.5%, reaching 4.9 billion 

gallons by 2018. 

Brazil’s ethanol production totaled 6.7 billion gallons in 2008, an increase of 21%. This translates into 293.3 

mmt of sugarcane used in ethanol production. Production of ethanol in Brazil increases 111.2% by the end of 

the projection period, to 14.1 billion gallons. Sugarcane used in ethanol production increases 88.2%, reaching 

552 mmt by 2018. Brazil’s ethanol consumption increased in 2008 by 21.3%, to 5.5 billion gallons. Its ethanol 

consumption is projected to increase 66.9% by 2018. Brazil’s net ethanol exports reach 4.9 billion gallons in 

2018, an increase of 320.4%, partly because of the increase in U.S. ethanol import demand. 

Ethanol production in the EU increased almost 26% in 2008. EU ethanol production is projected to reach 1.6 

billion gallons in 2018, an increase of 175.1%. Consumption in the EU increased 26.2% in 2008, to 0.9 billion 

gallons. It is expected to reach 2.2 billion gallons in 2018, an increase of 146% over the decade. Total EU biofuels 

consumption reaches 3.1% of transport fuels in 2018. EU net imports rise from 318 million gallons in 2008 to 617 

million gallons by 2018 as consumption increases more than production. 

Chinese fuel ethanol production increased 9.3% in 2008, to 500 million gallons. Production is projected to 

continue to increase and reach 622.8 million gallons by 2018. Ethanol consumption in China increased in 2008 

to 448 million gallons. It increases 59.2%, to 713.8 million gallons, by 2018. China becomes a net importer of 

ethanol in 2011. Its net imports reach 91 million gallons in 2018.

In India, ethanol is produced mainly from molasses, a co-product in sugar production from sugarcane. India’s 

ethanol production decreased by 9.8%, from 571 million gallons in 2007 to 515 million gallons in 2008 because 

of a decline in sugarcane production. Production rises to 578 million gallons in 2018, an increase of 12.2%. 

Consumption of ethanol in India was 490 million gallons in 2008 and is projected to increase 51%, to 739.5 

million gallons, in 2018. India’s net imports increase to 171.6 million gallons in 2018.
 World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 317

World Biodiesel

The world price of biodiesel (Central Europe FOB) decreases to $3.74 per gallon in 2009, driven by a lower crude 

oil price and large supplies in the world market. The price then recovers as EU countries attempt to achieve their 

biofuel targets and because of rebounding crude oil prices. Expanded production in Argentina and Brazil also 

contributes to the temporary price decline and to a sharp increase in exports before the start of the countries’ B5 

mandates. However, the world price increases to $5.56 per gallon by 2018, driven by higher demand from the EU. 

World net trade plunges in 2010 as Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia increase their mandate-driven consumption. 

Net trade averages 786 million gallons over the rest of the baseline, driven mainly by strong EU demand.

Currently, the EU has the world’s most developed biodiesel industry. Production increased 6% in 2008, but it 

declines 7% in 2009 because of strong competition from abroad. Domestic production then recovers and reaches 

2.6 billion gallons by 2018. Pushed by the biofuel target, domestic consumption continues to grow during the 

outlook period, reaching 2.9 billion gallons by 2018. The biodiesel share of diesel in transport is, however, still 

only 4.2%. Net imports increase rapidly between 2008 and 2009 as a sizeable volume of biodiesel is delivered 

from Argentina and Brazil. However, net imports slow down when these two countries’ B5 mandates are executed 

in 2010. Net imports are expected to hit 291 million gallons at the end of the decade.

Encouraged by its biodiesel mandate and the world market, Argentina’s biodiesel production expands from 269 

million gallons to 500 million gallons between 2008 and 2018. Domestic consumption jumps signifi cantly in 2010 

as the B5 mandate is exercised. Consumption continues to increase for the remainder of the outlook period but at a 

slower pace, hitting 230 million gallons by 2018. Net exports grow to 320 million gallons in 2009 and then drop by 

41% the following year because of the mandate. Trade rebounds in 2011 and grows to 270 million gallons by 2018.

Similar to the outlook in Argentina, Brazil’s biodiesel production is motivated by its mandate and the international 

market. Production increases to 875 million gallons by the end of the decade. Consumption jumps in 2008, 2009, 

and 2010 because of the mandate (B2.5 by 2008, B3 by 2009, and B5 by 2010). Domestic use is projected to 

reach 719 million gallons by 2018. Because of the mandate, Brazil’s net exports drop by 59% in 2010 and then 

grow for the remainder of the outlook, supplying 157 million gallons by 2018.

Indonesian production increased from 30 million gallons in 2007 to 105 million gallons in 2008, driven by strong 

production margins. The growth in the industry slows down over the rest of the baseline because of a rise in 

palm oil prices relative to biodiesel. By the end of the period, production hits 309 million gallons. A domestic 

consumption mandate is implemented starting in 2009. As the mandate-driven consumption increases, net exports 

decline from their peak of 173 million gallons in 2012 to 112 million gallons in 2018.
318 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Ethanol Trade

Net Exporters

 Brazil

 China

 Total Net Exports *

Net Importers

 Canada

 European Union

 India

 Japan

 South Korea

 United States

 ROW

 Total Net Imports *

Prices

 Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil **

 Ethanol, FOB Omaha

Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric to

* Total net exports are the sum of all pos

** Represents world ethanol price.

Biodiesel Trade

Net Exporters

 Argentina

 Brazil

 Indonesia

 Malaysia

 United States

 Total Net Exports *

Net Importers

 European Union

 Japan

 ROW

 Total Net Imports *

Prices

 Central Europe FOB Price **

 Biodiesel Plant

Note: 1 gallon = 3.7857 liters; 1 metric to

* Total net exports are the sum of all pos

** Represents world biodiesel price.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

1,165 1,169 1,466 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896

52 31 13 -9 -21 -35 -44 -54 -67 -78 -91

1,216 1,201 1,479 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896

165 260 312 364 412 460 503 550 599 657 711

318 318 352 401 436 467 494 523 559 586 617

0 23 59 90 107 120 130 139 153 163 172

149 196 234 273 308 343 377 412 447 481 516

81 104 132 154 175 195 215 236 257 276 297

436 195 250 353 454 528 772 1,037 1,211 1,605 2,070

67 104 140 176 212 247 282 317 353 388 423

1,216 1,201 1,479 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896

(U.S. Dollars per Gallon)

1.76 1.48 1.36 1.29 1.34 1.37 1.45 1.51 1.53 1.62 1.69

2.47 1.68 1.75 1.81 1.91 1.99 2.10 2.19 2.17 2.06 2.00

on = 1237.1644 liters.

sitive net exports.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

264 320 188 218 239 253 262 268 270 271 270

-1 167 69 103 127 144 154 160 162 161 157

102 117 149 166 173 171 165 155 143 128 112

51 47 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 47 47

353 322 284 244 199 178 174 178 184 187 184

771 974 737 779 785 794 803 809 806 794 769

300 487 253 296 304 313 323 329 327 315 291

4 19 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14

465 468 468 467 466 466 466 465 465 465 464

771 974 737 779 785 794 803 809 806 794 769

(U.S. Dollars per Gallon)

5.25 3.74 4.08 4.47 4.73 4.86 5.02 5.14 5.28 5.43 5.56

4.64 3.45 3.53 3.84 4.12 4.24 4.33 4.41 4.49 4.59 4.69

on = 1136.36 liters.

sitive net exports.
 World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 319

U.S. Biofuels Product

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Biodiesel

Production

 From Soybean Oil

 From Other Fats and Oils

Consumption

 Net Trade

Argentine Biofuels Pr

Biodiesel

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Biodiesel Production

 Soybean Oil

Brazilian Biofuels Pro

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Ethanol Production

 Sugarcane

Biodiesel

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Biodiesel Production

 Soybean Oil

Canadian Biofuels Pr

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Ethanol Production

 Corn

 Wheat

ction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

9,262 10,295 11,504 12,384 13,185 13,715 14,508 15,320 15,990 16,361 16,736

9,511 10,387 11,680 12,693 13,597 14,220 15,243 16,318 17,163 17,936 18,781

-436 -195 -250 -353 -454 -528 -772 -1,037 -1,211 -1,605 -2,070

677 804 921 1,040 1,149 1,178 1,174 1,178 1,184 1,187 1,184

394 429 496 578 656 668 657 658 661 663 660

284 375 425 462 493 510 517 520 522 524 525

324 482 638 796 950 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

353 322 284 244 199 178 174 178 184 187 184

Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

269 333 380 414 439 458 472 482 490 496 500

6 13 192 196 200 205 210 214 219 225 230

264 320 188 218 239 253 262 268 270 271 270

(Thousand Metric Tons)

941 1,157 1,314 1,427 1,507 1,564 1,604 1,631 1,649 1,661 1,667

roduction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

6,673 7,749 8,546 9,140 9,662 10,190 10,843 11,558 12,258 13,119 14,091

5,509 6,508 7,067 7,318 7,539 7,796 8,027 8,291 8,612 8,885 9,197

1,165 1,169 1,466 1,820 2,124 2,395 2,818 3,268 3,647 4,236 4,896

(Thousand Metric Tons)

293,259 326,134 356,811 378,589 397,029 415,414 438,506 463,708 487,905 518,019 551,996

(Million Gallons)

291 528 682 728 765 794 818 837 853 865 875

266 361 613 626 638 651 664 677 691 704 719

-1 167 69 103 127 144 154 160 162 161 157

(Thousand Metric Tons)

863 1,557 1,997 2,115 2,205 2,273 2,323 2,359 2,384 2,400 2,408

roduction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

222 247 261 261 263 266 271 275 284 292 301

387 507 573 625 675 726 774 825 883 949 1,012

-165 -260 -312 -364 -412 -460 -503 -550 -599 -657 -711

(Thousand Metric Tons)

1,615 1,796 1,898 1,898 1,914 1,936 1,969 2,003 2,064 2,122 2,191

695 772 816 816 823 832 847 861 887 912 942
320 / World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Biofuels Pro

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Ethanol Production

 Corn

European Union Biof

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Ethanol Production

 Wheat

 Corn

 Barley

Biodiesel

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Biodiesel Production

 Rapeseed Oil

 Soybean Oil

 Sunflower Oil

Indian Biofuels Produ

Ethanol

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Indonesian Biofuels P

Biodiesel

Production

Consumption

 Net Trade

Use in Biodiesel Production

 Palm Oil

oduction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

500 509 516 522 535 548 562 577 591 607 623

448 478 503 531 556 582 607 631 659 686 714

52 31 13 -9 -21 -35 -44 -54 -67 -78 -91

(Thousand Metric Tons)

3,403 3,630 3,690 3,737 3,798 3,890 3,985 4,091 4,197 4,303 4,417

fuels Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

569 683 800 889 983 1,079 1,178 1,276 1,370 1,469 1,566

887 1,001 1,152 1,290 1,420 1,547 1,672 1,799 1,930 2,056 2,183

-318 -318 -352 -401 -436 -467 -494 -523 -559 -586 -617

(Thousand Metric Tons)

1,385 1,663 1,947 2,163 2,393 2,627 2,868 3,105 3,335 3,576 3,812

378 453 531 590 653 716 782 847 910 975 1,040

630 756 885 983 1,088 1,194 1,304 1,411 1,516 1,625 1,733

(Million Gallons)

1,711 1,594 2,048 2,148 2,228 2,257 2,325 2,386 2,454 2,527 2,617

2,012 2,083 2,303 2,446 2,533 2,571 2,649 2,716 2,782 2,844 2,909

-300 -487 -253 -296 -304 -313 -323 -329 -327 -315 -291

(Thousand Metric Tons)

5,077 3,131 4,439 4,713 5,022 5,265 5,533 5,723 5,933 6,156 6,343

702 1,074 1,260 1,284 1,291 1,264 1,253 1,233 1,217 1,200 1,184

54 474 504 515 526 528 532 535 539 543 549

uction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

515 497 488 487 498 509 523 537 548 563 578

490 513 543 572 595 620 642 666 693 716 739

0 -23 -59 -90 -107 -120 -130 -139 -153 -163 -172

Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

105 172 218 249 270 284 293 300 304 307 309

3 55 69 83 97 112 128 144 161 179 197

102 117 149 166 173 171 165 155 143 128 112

(Thousand Metric Tons)

367 601 760 869 942 992 1,025 1,048 1,063 1,073 1,079
 World Biofuels: FAPRI 2009 Agricultural Outlook / 321

Japanese Biofuels Pr

Ethanol

 Net Trade

Biodiesel

 Net Trade

South Korean Biofue

Ethanol

 Net Trade

Malaysian Biofuels P

Biodiesel

 Net Trade

Rest of World Biofue

Ethanol

 Net Trade

Biodiesel

 Net Trade

roduction and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

-149 -196 -234 -273 -308 -343 -377 -412 -447 -481 -516

-4 -19 -17 -16 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -14 -14

els Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

-81 -104 -132 -154 -175 -195 -215 -236 -257 -276 -297

Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

51 47 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 47 47

els Production and Consumption

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Million Gallons)

-67 -104 -140 -176 -212 -247 -282 -317 -353 -388 -423

-465 -468 -468 -467 -466 -466 -466 -465 -465 -465 -464