7/19/2011

Uncertainty analysis - parameters varied

Low case ICMs lower by 20% Aero direct mfg costs (DMC) lower by 10% APU DMC lower by 10% Turbo/compounding DMC lower by 10% AEO2011 Low Oil case fuel prices used

High case ICMs higher by 20% Aero DMC higher by 10% APU DMC higher by 10% Turbo/compounding DMC higher by 10% AEO2011 High Oil case fuel prices used

Summary shows results of MY analysis for Alt 3**AEO2011 - Low oil prices**

Pkg_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0-Low

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $5,900 $5,100 $4,900 $6,800 $7,600 $30,200 Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $4,860 $4,160 $3,860 $5,980 $6,600 $25,460 3% (avg SCC) $5,760 $4,860 $4,560 $6,980 $7,800 **$29,960** 2.5% (avg SCC) $6,460 $5,560 $5,160 $7,780 $8,700 $33,660 3% (95th percentile) $7,960 $6,860 $6,460 $9,680$10,800 $41,260

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $4,400 $3,700 $3,400 $4,600 $4,900 $20,900 Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $3,350 $2,740 $2,340 $3,660 $3,660 $15,650 3% (avg SCC) $4,250 $3,440 $3,040 $4,660 $4,860 **$20,150** 2.5% (avg SCC) $4,950 $4,140 $3,640 $5,460 $5,760 $23,850 3% (95th percentile) $6,450 $5,440 $4,940 $7,360 $7,860 $31,450 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)** **AEO2011 - Reference case**

Pkg_v2.6.1; Prog_v1.22.0

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $9,300 $8,300 $8,100 $11,500$12,900 $50,100 Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $8,160 $7,260 $6,960 $10,580$11,700 $44,760 3% (avg SCC) $9,060 $7,960 $7,660 $11,580$12,900 **$49,260** 2.5% (avg SCC) $9,760 $8,660 $8,260 $12,380$13,800 $52,960 3% (95th percentile) $11,260 $9,960 $9,560 $14,280$15,900 $60,560

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $6,900 $5,900 $5,600 $7,600 $8,300 $34,400 Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $5,750 $4,840 $4,440 $6,560 $6,860 $28,550 3% (avg SCC) $6,650 $5,540 $5,140 $7,560 $8,060 **$33,050** 2.5% (avg SCC) $7,350 $6,240 $5,740 $8,360 $8,960 $36,750 3% (95th percentile) $8,850 $7,540 $7,040 $10,260$11,060 $44,350 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)** **AEO2011 - High oil prices**

Pkg_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0-High

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $13,600$12,000$11,800$16,700 $18,800 $72,900 Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $12,360$10,860$10,560$15,680 $17,500 $67,060 3% (avg SCC) $13,260$11,560$11,260$16,680 $18,700 **$71,560** 2.5% (avg SCC) $13,960$12,260$11,860$17,480 $19,600 $75,260 3% (95th percentile) $15,460$13,560$13,160$19,380 $21,700 $82,860

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $10,100 $8,600 $8,100$11,100 $12,000 $49,900 Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $8,850 $7,440 $6,840 $9,960$10,460 $43,550 3% (avg SCC) $9,750 $8,140 $7,540$10,960 $11,660 **$48,050** 2.5% (avg SCC) $10,450 $8,840 $8,140$11,760 $12,560 $51,750 3% (95th percentile) $11,950$10,140 $9,440$13,660 $14,660 $59,350 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)**