EE-RM/STD-98-440 /

- F 7E-Rq//s 7D -? y , f/o



# Preliminarv Life-Cycle Cost Analysis:

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

I ,- -. _ ., rrrrirrri 

# Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl.gov 

# Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy 

# f Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9, 1999 , /. , 

### . EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# 1'-1
- FF 

# Prelimin_arv "

. 

# Life-Cycle Cost Analysis:

Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
..
( --- ----- - -

# ------~~~- -- .. - - ---- 

### ...

# ---:--~, ---'----;

# ~ Jim McMahon JEMcMahon@lbl.gov 

## Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Workshop on Standards for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps December 9,1999 m '!1 ::0**~-**tn

### d • co 

# r**~** oEE-RM/STD-98-440 // 

# Innuts to Life-Cycle Cost (LCCI A
B

___ _ __ - ___ _ . _ A 

# •l OEt 

# A LCC= /CC 

# + OEt t=1 

## (1+r) 

# ICC = Installed Consumer Cost 

# = (manufacturing cost xmarkups) + installation OE = Operating Expenses (annual) 

# = (electricity + maintenance + repair) N = Lifetime (years) r = Discount rate

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost - •**~** e .. EE-RM/STD-98-440 / t./ f,:: 

# Inou.ts to 

# L.ife-Cvcle Cos.t (LCC\**~** A .-- -1-
___ ----.

### ~..-:-•.

### '..~--:-~=~~-_-;~'" 

# .- 

# =-. '-:_._=t,**~:;:9Jt** N 

# LGG = 

# IGG+ 

# L OEt t t=1 

# (1+ r) ICC 

# =Installed Consumer Cost 

# = (manufacturing cost x 

# markups) + 

# installation 

# OE 

# =Operating Expenses (annual) 

# =(electricity + 

# maintenance + 

# repair) N 

# =Lifetime (years) 

# . r 

# =Discount rate

.**--~~~~~** Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 2EE.RM/STD-98-440 / /FF 

# Steps for Calculatina LCC

_ _ . . .. _-- ._ _-._! - . '------

- - - _ - 

# * Select one household from RECS (weighted)

- annual electricity consumption

- price of electricity (average and marginal)

- age of equipment (for determination of efficiency)

- age and location of home (to allocate annual energy consumption to seasons) 

# * Future price of electricity

- apply time trend from Annual Energy Outlook 

# * Sample given uncertainties

- incremental manufacturing cost, markups, installation price, service cost, lifetime, discount rate, efficiency 

# * Calculate LCC Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost '. EE-RM/STD-98-440 Il/ F F 

# Steps for Calculating LCe**~ ~** 



# ---------**-~-----** 

# -**:--~~ -~** **-~===-----** 

# ------**--------~..** 

# -." -'--_..-:- c --

## ~**~:::1!t** 

## • Select one household from RECS (weighted)

- annual electricity consumption

- price of electricity (average and marginal)

- age of equipment (for determination of efficiency)

- age and location of home (to allocate annual energy consumption to seasons) 

## • Future price of electricity

- apply time trend from Annual Energy Outlook 

## • Sample given uncertainties

- incremental manufacturing cost, markups, installation price, service cost, lifetime, discount rate, efficiency 

## • Calculate 

# LeeCentral AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost

_ •• ___ • __ 0" _, 3EE-RM/STD-98-440 ) 9 FF 

## INIDI IT.. DIr'_Q hkr,,enhfl#' rltfn !-N- P TS: .E S ho seho d data _rrrrrrrl 

## * On-site survey of 7,041 U.S. households

- 2,164 sampled households have central air conditioners

- 613 sampled households have heat pumps 

## * RECS average annual energy consumption for electric spacecooling is 30-35% lower than DOE test procedure. Electric heat pump space-heating is 45% lower.

- total electricity consumption from actual bills, attributed to end-uses 

### through conditional demand analysis 

## * Other data in RECS

- average electricity prices (marginal prices derived from bills)

- building shell characteristics

- equipment age

._ .... - 

### Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 

### 4 I '., EE-RM/STD-98-440 ) tJ FF**.r....-:-::---~----** - -- ----- --**~-----** ... - -- ... --- .. - ..- 

## • On-site survey of 7,041 U.S. households

- 2,164 sampled households have central air conditioners

- 613 sampled households have heat pumps 

## • RECS average annual energy consumption for electric spacecooling is 30-35% 

## lower than DOE test procedure. Electric heat pump space-heating is 45% lower.

- total electricity consumption from actual bills, attributed to end-uses through conditional demand analysis 

## • Other data in RECS

- average electricity prices (marginal prices derived from bills)

- building shell characteristics

- equipment age Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**~.=--** .... -- ..-.--.-.-., 4EE-RMI/STD-98-44d" 

# Inputs to 

# LCCAnavis AIv,
Baseline a Manufacturer Cost Standard-Level Manufacturer Cost Multiplier Manufacturer Markup Distributor

Markup Installation Cost Dealer Markup Sales Tax
. Annual Energy

Consumption

Equipment Efficiency I l Lifetime |

---- Electricity |Repair Cost Electricity

Prices 

# r Discount Rate

_ Maintenance Cost Electricity Price Trend 

### Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost -- -- '.

. .

## Innllt~ 

# tn I 

# r..r...**4n~lv~i~** •• • t' ...." ." ... ,..,.,..,. • •••**..,..~** 

### "." C:--==:.:.. : _-.. _.: ::'.=:=.'.
_ ..____ . __.._.__**-:-.~_:_:::----.----** Manufacturer Standard-Level Manufacturer Cost Manufacturer Markup I--r-l-++ Distributor

Markup Dealer Markup Sales Tax Annual Energy 1---.-....-

Consumption

Equipment Efficiency Electricity

Prices Installation Cost

Repair Cost Maintenance Cost Lifetime
Discount Rate

Electricity Price Trend EE-RM/STD-98-44d \.{ ,: r::

Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 5IqFF 

# Incalllald 

# rnnioimar 

# f"ro. f A 

# . · .. v~.«4..*
.... rrrrrr.?. rv 

### *_ = 

### - =f
_ -- = -- - 

### 11--,"i 

# ICC = 

# (MFG. MUMFG 

# MUDISTR MUDEAL ST) + IP 

# MFG = Manufacturer cost = Baseline Mfg Cost Mfg Cost Multiplier MUMFG 

# = Manufacturer markup MUDISTR 

# = Distributor 

# markup MUDEAL 

# = Dealer 

# markup 

# ST = Sales tax IP = Installation Price

__-,~- -- ' _Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost -- ' . . .



### . . 1L/ Ff**E~-____** __ .-**~-~---** ---------.------------ ------------ ------------**~- ~_-**  -**,~--,'~--~ ~**  

# ICC = 

# (MFG· 

# MU MFG· 

# MU DISTR· 

# MU DEAL · 

# ST) 

# + IP MFG 

# = 

# Manufacturer cost = 

# Baseline Mfg Cost · Mfg Cost Multiplier 

# MUMFG 

# =Manufacturer markup 

# MUOISTR = 

# Distributor markup' 

# MUOEAL 

# =Dealer markup ST 

# =Sales tax 

# IP 

# = Installation Price Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**\~--~~~~~-I** 6EE-RM/STD-98-440 FF 

## IKI. I 

# ITQ: Install 

# ed C¢..sume'r Costs
r 

## m = ,, I

J· 

### 1 1,%-7 ,I I,. ,,,AO,, ,i4A I,, 

### I ~, 1 "" 

# * Triangular Probability Distributions

- 

## Reverse Engineering 0.14 

## Manufacturer Cost Multipliers 012 0.10



## - 

## Manufacturer Markupoos 0.



### - 

## Dealer Markup 0.06 0.04



### - 

## Installation Price 002
1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24 126 128 Manufacturer Markup 

# * Histogram Probability Distributions

- Sales Tax 

# * Single-Point Values

- Baseline Manufacturer Cost; ARI Mfg Cost Multipliers; 

## Distributor Markup

______ Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost .---. EE-RM/STD-98-440 }t./ FF**,-~--',,---** - ----- -- ----.- --- --_.- ..**~ ~~-**  ..**:----~--** . - ........ - ...**--~.-- ---~-**  ._ ... -**----~**..**~~-.**--",,------._-

------ 

## • Triangular Probability Distributions**~------------------------~** 

### - Reverse Engineering Manufacturer Cost Multipliers 0.14**~--------------.** 

### Manufacturer Markup

- Dealer Markup

- Installation Price 0.12 0.10**~ ~**  0.08 ., ,I:l 

### £ 0.06 0.04 0.02 1.08 LlO Ll2 Ll4 Ll6 LI8 1.20 1.22 1.24 126 128 

## • Histogram Probability Distributions

- Sales Tax 

## • Single-Point Values Manufacturer Markup



### - Baseline Manufacturer Cost; ARI Mfg Cost Multipliers; Distributor Markup Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**,::-:--:-=-:-:-:.~- "~---~**  7EE-RM/STD-98-440 OqFF 

# INPUTS: Household Operating __=ven' 

## r___rrrr^ 

# OE [UECbase ELECavg - UECsavings ELECmarg] +MC 

# + RC 

# UECbase 

# = Baseline (10 SEER) annual energy use ELECavg = Average electricity price UECsavings= Annual electricity savings from standard ELECmarg = Marginal electricity price 

# MC = Annual maintenance cost RC = Annual repair cost

Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 8 , . EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# INPUTS: Household Operating**-=vnon~o _~t'''1**  1.wI"

----- __________ ._**----~--.---** ------- ----'-- -------.-----**------------_~--** ----e'
- 

# DE 

# =[UECbase 'ELECavg - UECsavings' ELECmary]

# +MC 

# +RC UECbase 

# = Baseline (10 SEER) annual energy use 

# ELECavg 

# = Average electricity price UECsavingS 

# = Annual electricity savings from standard ELEC marg 

# = Marginal electricity price MC 

# = Annual maintenance cost RC 

# = Annual repair cost 11.} FF

Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost

.**~--** ..**.,..-~-::::-..:=-::-~-"')** 8EE-RM/STD-98-4401 q F 

# Several Operating Expense Inputs ate based on 

# 409930C DRG -a InF% n Cw- ri __ _ __ ____ _I
_ Dr | 

# * Annual Energy Use * Equipment Efficiencies

- Imputed from RECS Equipment Age and 

## ARI Annual Shipment-Weighted Efficiency 

# * Average Electricity Prices * Marginal Electricity Prices

-Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 9 ... ' EE_RM/STD-98-440, Y FF 

# Several Operating Expense Inputs**~r~ h~~~"'"**  

### nn 

## 1**QQ~ Cl=~~ ~**  A gl

### ~**Ug~~"" U~_I**  __ :.I_

### ~_::~_~~~~_~ ____ .....

### ~~.~~•• ,

### ~:;~. 

## • Annual Energy Use • Equipment Efficiencies

- Imputed from RECS Equipment Age and ARI Annual Shipment-Weighted Efficiency 

## • Average Electricity Prices • Marginal Electricity Prices

Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 9EE.RM/STD-98-440 ) FF
.In .I , r- . - I X 1^ = - 

## r-*MEll , ~, 

# ,*, jj

-- v I 

## Wr (iE * Based on RECS household space-cooling and spaceheating energy use * Energy use is associated with equipment efficiency * Baseline energy use determined by taking the ratio of equipment-specific and baseline efficiencies SEERstock UECbaseorstd_cool = UECstock_cool 

## SEERs o 

## S FE^baseor std



### HSPFstock UECbaseorstd_heat = 

### UECstock_heat HSPF base orstd 

### * UECstockcoo/, UECstockheat, SEERstock, and HSPFstock are all 

## based on 1993 RECS data Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost " ' EE_RM/STD-98-440 ) VFF·



### _ ....__ .. _ .....•

## __ ...... . 

## • Based on RECS household space-cooling and spaceheating energy use • Energy use is associated with equipment efficiency • Baseline energy use determined by taking the ratio of equipment-specific and baseline efficiencies SEERstock 

### UECbaseorstd_coo/ 

# = UECstock_coo/' SEERbaseorstd HSPFstock 

### UECbaseorstd_heat 

## = UECstock_heat' HSPF baseorstd 

### • UECstoCkCOO/' UECstockheat, SEERstock' 

## and HSPFstock 

## are all based on 1993 RECS data Central AIC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**=-::;:---"~,-~** 10EE-RM/STD-98-440 q FF

~lElln U\^l €1 IM lyJl 1L5E 111|^VII rrrrrrj lA = _ . ,ma .n .R r 

# * Repair Cost

- Single-Point Value based on /2 equipment price divided by 

## equipment lifetime for 10 SEER and >12 SEER standard levels; 1%increase in cost for 11 and 12 SEER levels 

# * Maintenance Cost (range $0
- 

## $135)

- Does not vary with efficiency level 

# * Electricity Price Trend

- From 1999 Annual Energy Outlook 

# * Lifetime (range 1- 24 

## years)

- From 1990 ASHRAE paper (Bucher et al) 

# * Discount Rate (range 0 

## -19% real)

- Based on consumer finance methods

... Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost ---- EE_RM/STD-98-440 I

### tf FF 

## n+hftr**nnftr~+inn E:vnftn~ft**  

### Inn• •**+~ ~**  

# ."-**"'~~~~. "'~~! Q"~··~~-~~~~~~~~·t-'** 

# ...**o~~-:: =~**  

## • Repair Cost

- Single-Point Value based on % equipment price divided by equipment lifetime for 10 SEER and >12 SEER standard levels; 1% 

### increase in cost for 11 and 12 SEER levels 

## • Maintenance Cost (range $0 - $135)

- Does not vary with efficiency level 

## • Electricity Price Trend

- From 1999 Annual Energy Outlook 

## • Lifetime (range 1 - 24 years)

- From 1990 ASHRAE paper (Bucher et al) 

## • Discount Rate (range 0 -19% real)

- Based on consumer finance methods Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost ==:-0;,,,.=
___**~~.**__**.~=~.,.,** 11EE.RM/STD-98-440 /I FF 

## CSAMPLE D I II 

## RLT I 

# rr Fr 

## Tnrlif A/ 

## lI „ ,111-_It,

__ I I\. · IVII*i -l r i l 

## Manufacturing Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering $7,000 - $7,000 Installed Consumer Cost Installed Consumer Cost $6,()00

- Lifefime Operating Cost
_ $6,000 Bi Lifetime Operating Cost $5,000

- - $5,000 4 ASSUMPTIONS: 1)Std Effective in 2006, 2) Lifetime: 18.4years, $4,000 -- 00



### 3) Discount rate: 6.5% real, 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17



### · Assuming mean or weighted-average values; 

### Average LCC based on distributions may differ

· ASSUMPTIONS: 1) Std Effective in 2006, 2) Lifetime: 18.4 years, 3) Discount rate: 6.5% real, 4) Energy prices: RECS93 w/ AEO '99 trends to 2030. Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost EE-RM/STD-9S-440 

### /V FF·

### ~ 

### A aliDa c**DC~III T~·**  

### I 

## t"i' fnr**~nli+** 

### A**Ir:~·** JL. 

## '-'**~_.~~~~!** 

## ...... ___ ....**~~~;;:.='=** 

# ....**=::~===-v~~_-==** 

# ....**~._.~~_--.-~** 

# ...

--=----,-

## -n.""~_- 

# t". n ",

## ~**!~:~** Manufacturing Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering**~,rm ~,rm**  o Installed Consumer Cost o Installed Consumer**~rm** GI Lifetime Cost $6,(0) iii Lifetime Cost

.. $5,rm .. $5,(0) 

# .. 

# .. 0 0 U U**~** $4,rm oS $4,(0) U Col t; t;**~** $3,rm**~** $3,(0) 

## ... ... . 

# ..**~** ...:l $2,rm $2,(0) $1,rm $1,(0) SO :10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 SI.?IR SEER 

### • Assuming mean or weighted-average values; Average 

# Lee based on distributions may differ • ASSUMPTIONS: 1) Std Effective in 2006, 2) Lifetime: 18.4 years, 3) Discount rate: 6.50/0 real, 4) Energy prices: RECS93 wi AEO '99 trends to 2030. Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 12EE-RM/STD-98-440 /
__JIU ^I*C~.~411u 7 l IIV V CA IIIuuCLluy rrrrrr^ |i 

## ,=0 ,-~,-,,,,y Q,,-. --. 

## , ,! ,,l



# Identify key uncertainties and variabilities

- uncertainty: incomplete information

- variability: range of values 

# Estimate input ranges rather than point values

- minimum, likeliest, maximum values 

# Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis Simulate over input ranges Express output as ranges

- Percent of consumers having lower life cycle cost
Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 3 " EE_RM/STD a 98-440 / 

### tf FF

,. -- --- - - ._--- ----- ._--=--._- .. ---- ._-_._.._----- - ._-._.. ---..._--- _...**~~~~---** 

## • Identify key uncertainties and variabilities

- uncertainty: incomplete information

- variability: range of values 

## • Estimate input ranges rather than point values

- minimum, likeliest, maximum values 

## • Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis • Simulate over input ranges • Express output as ranges

- Percent of consumers having lower life cycle cost

Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**r~ -:-.-::---~=:!='''-**  13EE-RM/STD-98-440 IFF 

# Preliminary Results for Split A/C:



# ·LCC Difference. I 

### UUI11SEE 12 

### J lIbL--,I I 

### V'0 

### I

# J rrrrrr 

### II Ill~l~ll~r. gm II 7 %I 

## Manufacturing Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering Forecast: LCC Difference Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 214 Outliers 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 152 Outliers .040 t .- 395 .040- 400 .040 ------------------------- ----------- 296.2 D.0-30--296.2 .030 -- _______-------------------------- - - ------ 300 :=- »S[ figgg!!»»*lI!BIa °»!.;-, 5 a

- -- Nlia-No - 5 n- ----------------------- ------- 197.52 3 n. i------------ ------------ -2 I ... . -- * 197.5. .0', ----------------------. ~---- -dWN Mean = $49 i ".010-. "' ; .. .000 ,.. 0 ($800) ($450) ($100) $250 $600 ($1,000) ($650) ($300) $50 $400 Certainty is 30.86% from -Infinity to $0 $ Certainty is 44.75% from -Infinity to $0 $ 

### * Mean impact is LCC cost of $49 * Mean impact is LCC savings of $58 * 31% of sample have net savings * 45% of sample have net savings * Range is from $2948 savings to * Range is from $3625 savings to $317 $433 cost cost C.entral A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost - 14" ..**~** . .. .

... . ,

...... ee-RM/STO-98-440 I L{!=F
. 

# Preliminary Results for Split 

# Ale:

I 

### r'r' 

## ni-F-FftPftnl'ft**I~CCD** 

# -t.,**"~** 

## -t n\**~** l


# ...._-**...,~**

# ••**·.".]"·.c·"~~l"'~~-;-~~_·** 6. y

### ~**.V=~** 

# __ )**~:;:lIt** Manufacturing 

## Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering Forecast: LeC Difference Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 214 Outliers 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 152 Outliers

I -------------------------r-

($800) ($450) ($100) $250 Certainty is 30.86% from -Infinity to $0 $


### • Mean impact is 

# Lee cost of $49 

### • 31 0

### 10 of sample have net savings • Range is from $2948 savings to $433 cost 395 296.2**~** 197.5.g C'I ::I**98.75~** 400

I**---------------------------'--~hffiH'Hr------** 300 "T1 

### ... "' 200 .g C'I ::I 100**~** ($1,000) ($650) ($300) $50 Certainty is 44.75% from -Infinity to $0 $


### • Mean impact is 

# Lee savings of $58 • 450/0 of sample have net savings • Range is from $3625 savings to $317 cost
Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 14EE-RMV/STD-98-440 / q FF 

# Preliminary Results for Split HP:

LCC Di ffence 

# ;FF(SEEArr I D 4 

## ')) 

# I 

# n """.---.-

- p - - --- _ _ „ - .--_ -..- _- -- - - - - - ' - "- ' "-- - - - .- ---- _ - _ _»_.-, -- -^ j "i

---- __ _ _i..... _... m. _ _-----rr--. r iur 

## Manufacturing Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering Forecast: LCC Difference Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 138 Outliers 10,000 Trials Frequency Chart 173 Outliers .031- I. 308 .031- ; 311 031------- ------ ---- ------ j----,--------231 031-------------------------I----- .023--231..
. ............. I . .023-3....3.......2...l,.l.
... 2
o _ Io IIIIIItot,,L,,,,,1 ~, .



### cost cost2 ---- AC .. 77 ,M .00Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost Mean= ($234) Mean= ($468). :00 .000 0...... ($1,750) ($1,188) ($625) ($63) $500 ($2,000) ($1,438) ($875) ($313) $250 Certainty is 63.04% from -Infinity to $0 Certainty is 89.88% from -Infinity to $0



### · Mean impact is LCC savings of $234 · Mean impact is LCC savings of $468

· 63% of sample have net savings · 90% of sample have net savings

· Range is from $6395 savings to $421 · Range is from $6468 savings to $166 cost cost
Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost i5 

# · - EE-RM/STD-98-440 I YF'F 

# Preliminary Results for Split HP:

I 

## rr' nifforonl'ft**I~CCC** 

### -t?**"~** 

## -t n\**~** A

### ,-=-_-.:..._.-:":"~ 

# __**~~~. ~!_~~~~=~-"",,_**  

# ....... 

# 'm. 60

### ,,~**·m~m ~::~**  

## Manufacturing Costs: ARI Reverse Engineering Forecast: LeC Difference Forecast: LCC Difference 10,000 Trials .031 Frequency Chart 138 Outliers 10,000 Trials 308 .031 Frequency Chart 173 Outliers 311

I 231 ----------------------------r**~ ~**  .01**~ ~**  I 233.2
. "'TI 

## ... "**~** Q 

### ... a. ($1.750) ($1,188) ($625) ($63) Certainty is 63.04% from -Infinity to $0 154**~** C"D 

### =**~I""m,rrr** - - - 77**~**



### • Mean impact is Lee 

### savings of $234 • 63% 

### of sample have net savings • Range is from $6395 

### savings to $421 

### cost ($2.000) ($1,438) ($875) ($313) Certainty is 89.88% from -Infinity to $0**155.5~** 

### " =**77.75~**



### • Mean impact is Lee 

### savings of $468 • 90% 

### of sample have net savings • Range is from $6468 

### savings to $166 

### cost
Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost .. _- - _ ..... 15EE-RM/STD-98-440 lq FF 

# RESULTS: LCC SnIitf 

## Sstafam Air ;,onditione.r

_. -^ __= I|- . _bW W
_ . U
........... .^ .^ . .. r- __ rrrV.rrrb 11

%$6w00-=/ A 90/to 8 / ^ 

### E m // 'o 

# aw/o 0'- 0 70O/o, $5, 6 0 0 o A S( p o_,

, ..... y/ 0 G) 5400---------^ - 90DP/o0
0 420%/o O/ / 30P/o $4,6800----

- '- " '/ 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 

### Baseline (10 SEER) LCC

- $4,800

------ - -Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost -6 EE_RM/STO-9S-440 I L{ F F 

# RE8UL T8: LCC**~nli+ ~\I~+orn**  

## Air**~nntii+innor~ ~t'**  

### •• "**~ ~**  

### ...,."•••**~.. ~"**  

### ••**~** 

### • ... " •• " • ..., ;--c-- ____ - - --- _ ---_____**c~** __-- __ ----- - --- -- ------------- --------- - ---- - - -----**---------~,** --**~__** ---- - - __ ::..- ___**~** __ J.;-3**~_._"** .. _... _

SD,aD 

## sa.an 

# -**~ ~,EIX)**  0**~~,Em** >.**~~400** .! ::J**~.ax>** c**=~,an ~**  $4,E1X) $4,Em J )' 

# / ------------------ ---

-o-JlR / -+-Fet&g

### ~**C~~~** 

# "'- "- ''n-**~** --n- -0 

# . (}I/o r---

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 9:IR 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 SIR 

### Baseline (10 SEER) 

# Lee - $4,800 Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 16EE-RM/STD-98-440 1 FP 

# RESULTS: LCC _Snlit _,cftzm -laf 

## Dpumr -ps ____ill. ^J^^^^iBB * IV^U«. * Vlllj^^ rrrrrrrnj

$II)0-/ - o \\ \o

e9 SAX - i I P/A '\ \ UO'; $1 O= Pei E 

### a) P/o~ ~. e-- $3,(300 10 /
oe 4: r. -

., $10xD1
$9,4OO -, , , (1 , , , l /o 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 

### Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $10,100 Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost --- EE-RM/STD-98-440 1'-I F P 

# RESULTS:LCC**~nli+ ~,,~+orn** **I-Io~+ Dllrnn~**  '-',., ....**"~~** ..,, ••• •**.,,~** .. • '-4I •••**t'~**

. -- - ----- . ----- - ---- - -- ... - -**--'--"-'-~'-~=~** --

______**._~~__O..:.~**___

$11,aD 1CIPA, $11,(XD -o-PR gpA, -o-PR



# ... fI) BY/o -.-Fet**~** $10,ElX) --+-Fet8-g "C / '00**~**

### ~ $1o,an ,c 0 7tJlA, CD...J 

### ""--0...**~~** WA,**~$1o,400** 

# \ °u 0 ::I:::::I WA, 

### J!! $10,aD
.... "C 

### \**~** $10,(XD o CD -«:PAl \

...**~** C,c CD**~** :IP/o ca**~ ~**  apA, CD $},EIX) :! Q.. $},an 1(PA, $},400 (yA, 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 SEER s:ER 

### Baseline (10 SEER) 

# Lee - $10,100 Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 17EE-RM/STD-98-440 I 

# RESULTS: Split AIC LCC differences (ARI mnnlufactnr urinn rtnft) ,

__ ___ _i~
_ _____ -__ __ __ ___ ______~ 

### -' __- rrrrrrr- |1 

### Ix 80%--------------------------differences-------------------- 100%

, 80% 60%-

·o 40% : 60%->$500 rt«*~~~~~~- $500-- $500
-- 20%-- ,m;~ a- $100 > 0%

__ " / 0% ; -20% c -$200 > -40%- -60% <-$500 -100% ,,, 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC ~ $4,800 

### Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost ' ...... EE-RM/STD-98-440 r'f· J:F 

# RESULTS: Split Ale 

# Lee differences.

100% 

### tARI**m~nllf~~tllrinn ~nQt\ ~**  A
,

- ........... - •• -.---- •••• :-11 ----, . . 

# ;-'I'j

-**,.,.r,.,.r~1** I**=~~~~~_** 

# -_.**~.**

# ---**.:~ -=.==-~:.**  

# - ____**~_**

# ... u_. ____**~-~.:-:: :=~** **C~ ==-~.** 

1\ 80% I I I I I I 60% I I I I I "C 40% CD 

# = r; 20% CD c CD 

### m 0% "C CD >$500 $500**1~~uU t~,~:>**  

### . $100 i;;<', -$100 

# .e -20% c co -40% > :. -$200 "C co fI) -60% 

## .- c

I -$500 I v -80% <-$500 -100% 

### , I I 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $4,800**~~** ..**~**....**-.-=~=-~-~~"** .. Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 18EE-RM/STD-98-440 F F 

# RESULTS: Split AIC LCC differences (RAversen Ennineerinn manufa=rturing n 

## ost) r^ ' ' E
- -'---
. . rrrrr 100% ,; 80%

, 60%
= 40%- $500

S' -20% > -40% -60% $0 00 -80%- -1 00% 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER 16 SEER 17 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC

- $4,800 

### Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost m - $ 6oo~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 EE_RM/STD-98-440 /1./ FF 

# RESULTS: Split 

# Ale Lee differences**IRAvAr~A** 

## FnninAArinn**m::anllf::a~tllrinn ~n~t\** **~** A ,- -- _ -- -- ___ ;1 ••• __ • ••• .., •• __ ._-----_ ••••**~** -----, _ 

### ;--'-I'j**"""""'''~I** I c;;: =_.-:-_ - ___**~_** _=__-'-_**~_--_~~:-~~====- ~** 

## - __**=-:~-** -_':**:=~** 100%**~------------------------------------------------------------~**
1\ 80% I I I I I I 60% I I I I I "C 40%

### ~**~** 20% G) c: G) OJ 0% "C G) C) -20% CI 

### ..., c: CI -40% > "C CI tn -60% 

### C

I I <-$500 v -80% -100% 11 SEER 12SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15SEER 16 SEER 17 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $4,800**===~~-----_=c~-** ___**-~~~~~---~** Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 19EE-RM/STD-98-440 / 

### q FF 

# RESULTS: Split HP LCC differences (ARI ma 

## nufactulrinn rost)
- A

.... ._ _ . __ _ __ * -. - -. -I rrrrrrr jm 100% ,' 80% 60% - . - > 5 00 6 40%- $500 0 20%- $200 0 a o/oX!. „ f $ 1: :'ass
- - ^ZZdlX_ 0% 0 ~,!~ ~ $100

) x ': ; 'I T! -$100
__ ----- -$200 > -40% BU -60%- <-$o00 V -80% -100%- , - 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER

Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $10,100

.... ___.

. =- - 

### Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 

## - EE-RM/STD-98-440 ) Y Fl="

1\ 800/0 • • • • • " 

## ....

# - • 60% • • 

## -"'---- • • • "C 40%

### ~ ,$500**~** 20% CD c CD 

### m 0% 5200 $100**f~~>** "**",""E~** :"- "c, "C CD**~** -$100 c::n -20% ca 

## .... -$200 c ca -40% > -$500 "C ca .!! -60% c <-$500

• • v -80% -100% 11 SEER 12SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $10,100**",,==-,---=~~---= ~,,~~=-C~----C~=~·**  Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 20EE-RM/STD-98-440 FF 

# RESULTS: Split HP LCC differences (Reverse Engineering manufacturing 

# const)

100% >$500 ,; 80% 60% 0, -20%

___ ._Ea$500 L 40% 20%- -- $200 -1 02____________0% ---- __----- --- $ -00 0% _$100 _-

Baseline (10 SEER) LCC $10,100

- Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost--- j -20% | -40%

v -80% -100% --------- 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER 16 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC ~ $10,100



### _ -_ ...... _ Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost -- ]--**~.** . 

### "**EE-RM/STD-98-4~** FF 

# RESULTS: Split HP LCC differences (Reverse Enaineering'manufacturina cost)
.**~** 

## ,. 

# - - ,.,.,.,.,.,.;.**I~** J -**-~** 

## _===-**~**

## __

# ==: _ - --- - __.-'-'-
____**:~~ ~** 

# __**-~** 

# __**~___ .=~_~_** 

# _::-_**_---~_;:::::::=_:_. ~~~** **-~ _-~_~--_** -: J**:NlI!JI1~** 100% >$500 1\ 80% • • • • • • 60% • • • • $500 • "C 40% CD 

# = Ii: 20% CD c CD 

### m 0% "C i!&200

### j~~;;i,r**>l!~** 

## 8$100 '..:; • -$100 .......•...... ': .CD

0) -20% ftI -$200



# ... C ftI -40% > "C -$500 ftI .!! -60% c <-$500

• • v -80% -100% I T I 11 SEER 12 SEER 13 SEER 14 SEER 15 SEER 16 SEER Baseline (10 SEER) LCC - $10,100

-**.--~'-.~.~-----.-~.-.** -.**-~--~** Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost 21EE-RM/STD-98-440 , L F 

# Consumer Subgroup Analvsis rrr

L - .= --- - - -- r rr? b 

# * LCC Analysis on subpopulation of RECS households -Determine if particular standard levels impact



## subpopulations differently than the entire population 

# * Plans to analyze low-income consumers

Central A/C and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost - 2 -. ' . .. EE-RM/STD-98-440 I Ll FF 

# cConsurTler**Sub~r~~~p Analy~~i!;~,** 

# 3

• LCC Analysis on subpopulation of RECS households

....



### - Determine if particular standard levels impact subpopulations differently than the entire population 

## • Plans to analyze low-income consumers

Central AlC and Heat Pump Life-Cycle Cost**~~~-~ -'~---~-'-'**  22