# APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the Reading (Berks County) 1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES2010a

Technical Support Document Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

Executive Summary

May 2012 Prepared for:

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468 Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

Prepared by:

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

1304 Concourse Drive Linthicum, MD 21090

410-689-3400

### Reading (Berks County) Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Executive Summary May 2012



# Exhibit of Contents

SUMMARY ...........................................

................................................... ................................................... ................. 1

R EVISED E MISSIONS I NVENTORY

.................................................. ................................................... .......................... 1

A NALYSIS M ETHODOLOGY

.................................................. ................................................... ................................... 2

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS ...................

................................................... ..................................... 3

A NALYSIS T OOLS

.................................................. ................................................... ................................................. 3

T RAFFIC D ATA S OURCE /F LEET D ATA I NPUTS

.................................................. ................................................... ...... 4

T RAFFIC G ROWTH A SSUMPTIONS

.................................................. ................................................... ......................... 5

V EHICLE P OPULATION G ROWTH A SSUMPTIONS

.................................................. ................................................... ... 6

I/M AND F UEL P ARAMETERS

.................................................. ................................................... ................................ 7

M ETEOROLOGY D ATA

.................................................. ................................................... .......................................... 8

V EHICLE T ECHNOLOGY P ROGRAMS

.................................................. ................................................... ..................... 8

RESOURCES .........................................

................................................... ................................................... ................ 9



# List of Exhibits

E XHIBIT 1: S UMMARY OF A PPENDICES

.................................................. ................................................... ...................... 1

E XHIBIT 2: R EVISED M OTOR V EHICLE E MISSIONS U SING MOVES2010 A

.................................................. ................... 2

E XHIBIT 3: S UMMARY OF A NALYSIS T OOLS

.................................................. ................................................... .............. 3

E XHIBIT 4: PPSUITE P ROCESS

.................................................. ................................................... ................................. 4

E XHIBIT 5: VMT G ROWTH A SSUMPTIONS

.................................................. ................................................... ................. 6



# Summary of Appendices

Appendix C-1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Ex planation of Methodology

Appendix C-2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx)

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type)

Appendix C-3: MOVES Sample Input FilesReading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1



## SUMMARY

This technical appendix supports the revised mainte nance plan for the Reading Area under the 1997 8- hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Section 107 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be co nsidered for redesignation. One of those requireme nts includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), for a base year, t he year the region attains the ozone standard, and projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The emissions inventory is used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the ozone standard. U.S

. EPA’s redesignation guidance states, “A state may g enerally demonstrate maintenance of the NAAQS by either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will not exceed the level of the attainment inventory, or by modeling to show that t he future mix of sources and emission rates will no t cause a violation of the NAAQS.”

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inve ntory for the Reading Area was originally approved by EPA on August 24, 2007 as documented in the Federal Regist er ( 72 FR 48559 ) and was effective on September 10, 2007. At that time, EPA also approve d the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for

VOC and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. The original budgets were developed using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA-approved emission model at that time. On March 2, 2010, EPA officially released MOVES2010a to be used for a ll SIP submittals and future transportation conformity analyses after a grace period through Ma rch 2, 2013. This maintenance plan update revises the 2009 and 2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010a.

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the metho dology and analysis results for the motor vehicle emissions inventory. To complement this executive s ummary, attachments have been provided with additional detail regarding the analysis methodolog y, the MOVES input parameters, and the output vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emission results for the Reading Maintenance Area . These include:



### Exhibit 1: Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description

C-1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to
calculate the VMT and emissions.

C-2 Ozone (VOC, NOx)

Emission Results Provides emission exhibits by county, road type, an d source type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and

2018.

C-3 MOVES Sample

Input File Provides examples of the MOVES input files.



## Revised Emissions Inventory

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions fo r the Reading Area is provided in Exhibit 2 . Both VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010a emission model and latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been e stimated for the 2004 attainment year, 2009 and

2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the or iginal maintenance plan have been included in the exhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions

.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2 

### Exhibit 2: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MO VES2010a (Short Tons/Day)

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC 1 6

. 95 13.1 0 7.5 0 13. 17 11. 3 5 6. 0 5

NOx 29. 77 21.3 0 9.0 0 3 4

. 4 0 2 6

. 98 1 2

. 9 0



## Analysis Methodology

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop th e base and future year emissions inventories for

the Reading Maintenance Area . They include:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09- 046, December 2009.

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Confo rmity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Qua lity, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

• Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

The highway mobile source emission inventory was de veloped using available travel data and EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. The methodologies used t o produce the emission data conform to the recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance . A mix of local data and national default (internal to MOVES2010a) data has been used for thi s submission. Local data has been used for the primary data items that have a significant impact o n emissions. These include:

• Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by vehicle type.

• Average speed distribution.

• Vehicle type mixes.

• Source type population (for light-duty vehicles).

• Vehicle age distribution.

• Hourly distributions.

• Meteorology data.

• Inspection/Maintenance program.

• Fuel supply.



### Most local data inputs to the analysis process refl ect the latest planning assumptions based on 2008 data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, and other local/national sources . Newer data was available and was used for traffic forecast growth rates, control strategies ( e.g. Inspection-Maintenance programs), vehicle age distributions and fuel characteristics.

The analysis methodology is consistent with past st atewide inventory efforts including the 2008 Nation al Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This include s the use of custom post processing software to calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic inp ut files to the MOVES2010a emission model. A detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C-1 . The following sections address the key input dat a sources and analysis tools used for the emissions i nventory for the Reading Area.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3



## DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS

This section provides a summary of the key input da ta and analysis tools used for producing the Reading

Maintenance Area emissions inventory. The key elements to the mode ling protocol are described in the sections below. A more detailed description of the analysis process and tools is provided in the methodology reports in Appendix C-1 through C-3

.



## Analysis Tools

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis uti lizes several key software/programs for producing t he county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3

.



### Exhibit 3: Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose

MOVES2010a Produces emission rates for each ozone precursor, VOC and NOx.

PPSUITE Processes the highway data ; Calculates

hourly congested speeds for each state roadway segment; Prepares MOVES2010a input files; Processes MOVES2010a output files into a summary report.

CENTRAL Provides a batch menu driven process to

execute PPSUITE, MOVES2010a and other

MYSQL steps.

The Reading Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source emiss ion estimations using

EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a revised version (MOVES2010a ) in August 2010. The MOVES2010a model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as com pared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and control strategy data to estimate emissions.

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system that has been used for previous inventory and confo rmity submissions in Pennsylvania. The software ha s undergone significant revisions to ensure consisten cy with the MOVES2010a. PPSUITE was used to calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT, prepare MOVES2010a traffic-related input files and process MOVES2010a outputs.

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and transportation conformity analyses throughout Penns ylvania. Exhibit 4 summarizes the key functions of

PPSUITE.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4 

### Exhibit 4: PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu-driven software platform that exe cutes the PPSUITE and MOVES2010a processes

in batch mode. The software allows users to execut e runs for a variety of input options and integrate s custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provi des important quality control and assurance steps including file naming and storage automation.



## Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs

Traffic Volume Data : The 2008 PennDOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the primary highway data source for the county and func tional class VMT estimates. The data source has been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regiona l roadway system and traffic volumes in 2008 and is also integrated with traffic signal locations. The data includes the 2008 average annual daily traffi c (AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvan ia. To account for additional local roadway VMT and to ensure consistency with reported Highway Per formance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT totals, the 2008 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 2008 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA.

Seasonal Adjustments : Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on each RMS roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are developed from data contained in the document, 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data , prepared by PennDOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). T he seasonal and daily factors provided in this document are based on statistical analyses of 2008 traffic counts taken at permanent and in-pavement ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations througho ut the state. Based on these seasonal traffic vol umes, the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested sp eeds for each roadway segment during an ozone summer weekday scenario.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5

Congested Speeds : PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of th e day for each roadway segment and provides the information as input to the MOVES2 010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pa ttern data from PennDOT’s 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variatio ns in traffic volumes.

Vehicle Population : Vehicle population is a key input that has an imp ortant impact on start and evaporative emissions. MOVES2010a requires the num ber of vehicles by 13 source types to determine evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registra tion data was used to estimate vehicle population f or light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data was split to source types using MOVES2010a default population data. For transit buses, data from Penn DOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was used to estimate transit bus populations by county. For all other heavy-duty vehicles, PPSUITE calcula tes vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT f or each source type and default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type). Vehicle population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate meth odology includes:

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth ass umptions

VMT by Source Type : The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES201 0a source types. For this inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grouping utilizing a

combination of:

• 2008 RMS truck percentages

• PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data

• 2008 school bus registration data

EPA’s MOVES2010a default distribution of VMT by sou rce type was used to determine the remaining source type VMT percentages. The development of ve hicle type pattern data input to the MOVES2010a

software is described in more detail in Appendix C-1

.

Vehicle Age Distribution: Vehicle age distributions are required to be inpu t by 13 source types. The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. A recent 2010 regis tration

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Re gistration Database has indicated a substantially older fleet than recorded in the 2002-2008 period. The 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for this inventory. Due to insufficient data, only dat a for light-duty vehicles are used as local inputs; and heavy-duty vehicle ages are calculated using the in ternal MOVES2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania County. The registration data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. The data was converted to source types using the EPA convertor s preadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a

emission model.



## Traffic Growth Assumptions

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. T here are many uncertainties affecting projections of tra ffic growth including the current economic conditio ns, potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Sha le activities in many counties throughout the state , and the future growth in population and employment. Gr owth rates for this emissions inventory were based

on an assessment of available data sources.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6

For the Reading Maintenance Area , the following data sources are available:

• PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system.

• Regional Travel Model.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include t he review and assessment of county-specific growth rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Gro wth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14,

2005 . As part of that study, a statewide traffic growt h forecasting system was developed that incorporate s traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information Sys tem and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is upda ted on a periodic basis. This system was last updated in December of 2009 to develop new statisti cal relationships between historic VMT growth and population (thru 2008). The forecast population wa s estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between PennDOT, PaDEP, and other Interagency Consultation Group members, including t he Pennsylvania Transportation - Air Quality Work Group (which also includes EPA, FHWA, and represent atives from larger MPOs within the state).

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting s ystem are evaluated against other available data including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of th e VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses . From an air quality perspective, the use of the upper boundary is conservative, and provides for fa ctors outside PennDOT or PaDEP control (e.g., potential socio-economic growth above current forec asts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distrib ution)

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for future analysis years in the Reading Maintenance Area

.



### Exhibit 5: VMT Growth Assumptions

Analysis

Year Total Growth

from 2004 Annualized Growth Rate

from Previous Year

2004

---- ---- 2009 6.9% 1.4%

2018 27.7% 2.0%



## Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays an impo rtant key role in determining emissions for future years for the region. For this inventory, vehicle population was forecasted considering the growth fr om three different sources:

• Household growth

• Population Growth

• VMT Growth

The household and population data were obtained fro m the PennDOT study documented in the report as discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 2005. The forecast household and population were estimate d from the Woods and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest g rowth between household and population data was obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT growth.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7



## I/M and Fuel Parameters

I/M Program: The inspection maintenance (I/M) program inputs to the MOVES2010a model are based on past and current programs within each county (al l PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries). All analysis years include Pennsylvania’s statewide program. The MOVES2010a model has simplified the I/M program input parameters compared to MOBILE 6.2. The default I/M program parameters

included in MOVES2010a were examined for each count y and necessary changes made to the defaults to match the actual local program.

In order to assure that emission controls are worki ng properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/ M) programs have been adopted in some nonattainment ar eas. These programs have the added benefit of improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. The Pen nsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase-in period starting in September 2003 and fully implemented by June 2004.

The program requirements vary by region (five regio ns) and include on-board diagnostics (OBD) technology that uses the vehicle’s computer for mod el years 1996 and newer to identify potential engin e and exhaust system problems that could affect emiss ions. The program, named PAOBDII, is implemented by region, as follows:

• Philadelphia Region - Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philade lphia Counties

• Pittsburgh Region - Allegheny, Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland C ounties

• South Central and Lehigh Valley Region - Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties

• North Region - Blair, Cambria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzern e, Lycoming, and Mercer

Counties

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia an d Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburg h and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests . Tests in other regions include:

• Subject vehicles registered in the South Central an d Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual, OBD and gas cap tests.

• Subject vehicles registered in the North region rec eive a gas cap test and visual inspection.

• Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 countie s (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection as part of the annual safety inspection.

Fuel Assumptions : The MOVES2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel pr operty information. The gasohol market penetration and RVP values were updated but MOVES2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters. Updated assumptions included:

• 8.7 RVP used for summer months.

• Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004.

• 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% m arket share of 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis year 2009.

• 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis y ear 2018.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8



## Meteorology Data

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. ( www.weatherbank.com ). The 10-year average minimum and maximum monthly tempera ture and relative humidity values were obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pen nsylvania.

The MOVES2010a model requires temperature and relat ive humidity data for each hour of the day.

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly temperature profile that could be input to MOVES201 0a. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008 NEI inventory submission.



## Vehicle Technology Programs

Federal Programs

Current federal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MOVES2010a software. These include the National Program standa rds covering model year vehicles through 2016. Modifications of default emission rates are require d to reflect the early implementation of the Nation al Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Penn sylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has released instructions and input files that can be u sed to model these impacts. This inventory utilize d the August 2010 version of the files ( http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm ).

State Programs

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adop ted in 1998, incorporated the California Low Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by reference, a lthough it allowed automakers to comply with the NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008, “new” passenger cars and light-duty trucks with a g ross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds

or less that are sold or leased and titled in Penns ylvania must be certified by the California Air Res ources Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 sta tes. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualifi ed vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 mi les. PaDEP and PennDOT worked with the automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interes ted business partners and finalized procedures for complying with these new requirements. DEP focuses its outreach effort with the manufacturers and dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compl iant. PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registrat ion records include these certifications of complia nce or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemptio n to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use information obtained during PennDOT’s title and reg istration process to oversee and audit, as needed,

certain vehicle title transactions to determine com pliance to the program.

The impacts of this program are modeled for all ana lysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis . EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVI I program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania.Reading Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9



## RESOURCES

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023 , April 2010.

2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 2008.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation Conformity

, and Other Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09- 046, December 2009.

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVE S, US EPA, EPA-420-B-10-003a, August 2010.

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005.

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weat herbank.com