v TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1

CHAPTER 2. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK

2.1 OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1 2.2 MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3 2.3 IDENTIFICATION & SCREENING OF DESIGN OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.4 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS (PRICE EFFICIENCY RESULTS) . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 2.5 LIFE-CYCLE COST (LCC) ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5 2.6 CONSUMER SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 2.7 SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 2.8 NATIONAL ENERGY IMPACTS (NES) ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8 2.9 MANUFACTURER IMPACTS ANALYSIS (MIA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.10 UTILITY IMPACTS ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 2.11 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10 2.12 NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10

CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 3.2 WATER HEATERS: DESCRIPTION AND EFFICIENCY CHARACTERISTICS . 3-3 3.2.1 Typical Models and Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3 3.2.2 Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5 3.3 WATER HEATER MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6 3.3.1 Sales and Installed Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6 3.3.2 Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.3.3 Cost Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 3.3.4 Manufacturing Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 3.3.5 Non-Regulatory Water Heater Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 3.4 TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 3.4.1 Insulation Blowing Agents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11 3.4.1.1 HFC-245fa-Based Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12 3.4.1.2 Water-Based Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13 3.4.1.3 HFC-134a-Based Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 3.4.1.4 Pentane-Based Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 3.4.1.5 Test Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15 3.4.2 Flammable-Vapor Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-16 3.4.3 Venting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17vi 3.4.3.1 Venting Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17 3.4.3.2 Venting Modification Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19 3.4.4 Water Heater Size Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-20 3.4.4.1 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-21

CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1 4.1.1 Stakeholder Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1 4.2 DISCUSSION OF DESIGN OPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-3 4.2.1 Design Options Used in the Engineering Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-3 4.2.1.1 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-4 4.2.1.2 Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5 4.2.1.3 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5 4.2.1.4 Insulating the Tank Bottom (Electric Only) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-6 4.2.1.5 Improved Flue Baffle/Forced Draft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-6 4.2.1.6 Increased Heat Exchanger Surface Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-7 4.2.1.7 Flue Damper (Electromechanical) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8 4.2.1.8 Side Arm Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9 4.2.1.9 Electronic (or Interrupted) Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-9 4.2.2 Design Options Eliminated from Further Consideration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-10 4.2.2.1 Flue Damper (Buoyancy Operated) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11 4.2.2.2 Submerged Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-11 4.2.2.3 Directly Fired . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.2.2.4 Condensing Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12 4.2.2.5 Condensing Pulse Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-13 4.2.2.6 Advanced Forms of Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14 4.2.2.7 U-Tube Flue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.2.2.8 Thermophotovoltaic and Thermoelectronic Generators . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15 4.2.2.9 Reduced Burner Size (Slow Recovery) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.2.2.10 Heat Pump Water Heater Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-16 4.2.2.11 Timer Controlled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-29 4.2.2.12 System Application Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-29 4.2.2.13 Sediment Removal Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-30 4.2.2.14 Two-Phase Thermosiphon (TPTS) Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-30 4.2.2.15 Air-Atomized Burner (Oil-Fired Only) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-31 4.3 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-31

CHAPTER 5. RETAIL PRICES

5.1 OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.1.2 Retail Price Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.1.3 Retail Distribution Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1vii 5.1.4 Retail Price Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 5.2 APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 5.2.1 Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 5.2.2 Baseline Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2 5.2.3 Water Heater Price Database Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 5.2.4 Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 5.2.5 Regional Representation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 5.3 RETAIL PRICE AND INSTALLATION COST SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 5.3.1 Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 5.3.2 Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10 5.3.3 Water Heater Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12 5.3.4 Other Summary Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12

CHAPTER 6. MANUFACTURING COST ASSESSMENT

6.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.2 ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.2.1 Baseline Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.2.2 Conventions for Manufacturing Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 6.3 APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2 6.4 MANUFACTURER COST DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 6.4.1 Electric Water Heaters Manufacturing Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-3 6.4.2 Gas-Fired Water Heaters Manufacturing Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5 6.4.3 Oil-Fired Water Heaters Manufacturing Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7

CHAPTER 7. MARKUP

7.1 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 7.1.1 Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 7.1.2 Sources for Markup Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2 7.1.2.1 Manufacturer Cost Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2 7.1.2.2 Manufacturer Price Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-2 7.1.2.3 Retail Price Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.2 APPLICATION OF THE COST AND PRICE DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.2.1 Engineering Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-4 7.2.2 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7 7.2.3 Manufacturer Impact Analysis (MIA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9

CHAPTER 8. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

8.1 OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.2 INFORMATION SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 8.2.1 Information Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1viii 8.2.2 Product Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-2 8.2.3 Baseline Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-3 8.2.4 Efficiency Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-4 8.2.4.1 WATSIM Model for Electric Storage Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-4 8.2.4.2 TANK Model for Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-6 8.2.4.3 WHAM Energy Calculation for Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters . . . . 8-7 8.2.5 Overall Analytical Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-8 8.3 ELECTRIC WATER HEATERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-8 8.3.1 Existing Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-9 8.3.2 Modeling Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-12 8.3.2.1 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 8.3.2.2 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 8.3.2.3 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 8.3.2.4 Insulating the Tank Bottom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-15 8.3.2.5 Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-16 8.3.3 Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 8.3.3.1 Existing Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 8.3.3.2 2003 Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 8.3.3.3 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 8.3.3.4 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 8.3.3.5 Tank Bottom Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 8.3.3.6 Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 8.3.4 Design Option Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-21 8.3.5 Installation and Maintenance Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-24 8.3.6 Cost-Efficiency Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-27 8.4 GAS-FIRED WATER HEATERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-30 8.4.1 Existing Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-30 8.4.2 Modeling Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-36 8.4.2.1 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-36 8.4.2.2 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-37 8.4.2.3 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-37 8.4.2.4 Improved Flue Baffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-38 8.4.2.5 Electronic Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-39 8.4.2.6 Flue Damper (Electromechanical) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-41 8.4.2.7 Side Arm Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-42 8.4.2.8 Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-43 8.4.3 Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-44 8.4.3.1 Existing Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-44 8.4.3.2 2003 Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-45 8.4.3.3 2003 Baseline Model with Flammable-Vapor Ignition-Resistant Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-46 8.4.3.4 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47 8.4.3.5 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47 8.4.3.6 Improved Flue Baffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-48ix 8.4.3.7 Electronic Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 8.4.3.8 Flue Damper (Electromechanical) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 8.4.3.9 Side Arm Heater and Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 8.4.4 Design Option Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-51 8.4.5 Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-53 8.4.6 Maintenance Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-58 8.4.7 Cost-Efficiency Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-59 8.5 OIL-FIRED WATER HEATERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-63 8.5.1 Existing Baseline Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-64 8.5.2 Modeling Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-66 8.5.2.1 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-66 8.5.2.2 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-67 8.5.2.3 Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-68 8.5.2.4 Improved Flue Baffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-71 8.5.2.5 Increased Heat Exchanger Surface Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-72 8.5.2.6 Interrupted Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-73 8.5.3 Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-75 8.5.3.1 Existing Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-76 8.5.3.2 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-76 8.5.3.3 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-77 8.5.3.4 2-Inch Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-77 8.5.3.5 2.5- and 3-Inch Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-78 8.5.3.6 Improved Flue Baffles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-78 8.5.3.7 Increased Heat Exchanger Surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-78 8.5.3.8 Interrupted Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-79 8.5.4 Design Options’ Retail Prices, Installation, and Maintenance Costs . . . . . . . . 8-79 8.5.5 Cost-Efficiency Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-80 8.6 ADDITIONAL BLOWING AGENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-83

CHAPTER 9. LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-1 9.1.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-1 9.1.2 General Description of Sources of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.1.2.1 Residential Energy Consumption Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 9.1.2.2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-6 9.1.2.3 Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-7 9.1.2.4 Manufacturer Product Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-7 9.1.3 Spreadsheet Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-7

9.2 HOT WATER DRAW MODULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-12 9.2.1 Introduction to Hot Water Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-12 9.2.2 Equation for Hot Water Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-12x 9.2.3 General Description of Key Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-14 9.2.4 General Description of Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-15 9.2.5 Results of Hot Water Use Calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 9.2.6 Importance Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-19

9.3 ENERGY ANALYSIS MODULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-25 9.3.1 Introduction to Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-25 9.3.2 Equation for Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-25 9.3.3 General Description of Key Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-26 9.3.4 General Description of Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-28 9.3.4.1 Derivations of Energy Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-28 9.3.4.2 Temperature Derivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-35 9.3.5 Energy Analysis Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-37 9.3.5.1 Electric Water Heater Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-37 9.3.5.2 Natural Gas Water Heater Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-40 9.3.5.3 LPG Water Heater Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-43 9.3.5.4 Oil-Fired Water Heater Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-45 9.3.6 Importance Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-47

9.4 OPERATING COST MODULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-52 9.4.1 Introduction to Operating Cost Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-52 9.4.2 Equations for the Operating Cost Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-52 9.4.2.1 Electric Water Heater Operating Cost Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-52 9.4.2.2 Natural Gas and LPG Water Heater Operating Cost Equations . . . . . 9-53 9.4.2.3 Oil-Fired Water Heater Operating Cost Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-55 9.4.3 General Description of Key Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-55 9.4.4 Energy Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-58 9.4.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-58 9.4.4.2 Future Energy Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-58 9.4.4.3 Marginal Energy Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-62 9.4.5 General Description of Data Sources and Calculations in Spreadsheets . . . . . 9-65 9.4.6 Operating Cost Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-66 9.4.6.1 Electric Water Heater Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-66 9.4.6.2 Natural Gas Water Heater Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-69 9.4.6.3 LPG Water Heater Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-71 9.4.6.4 Oil-Fired Water Heater Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-73 9.4.7 Importance Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-75

9.5 EQUIPMENT COST MODULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-81 9.5.1 Introduction to Equipment Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-81 9.5.2 Equation for Equipment Cost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-81 9.5.3 General Description of Key Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-83 9.5.4 Markup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-84 9.5.4.1 Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-84xi 9.5.4.2 Existing Baseline Retail Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-85 9.5.4.3 Existing Baseline Manufacturing Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-86 9.5.4.4 Summary of Markup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-88 9.5.5 Manufacturing Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-88 9.5.5.1 2003 Baseline Manufacturing Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-88 9.5.5.2 Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Design Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-89 9.5.6 Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-92 9.5.7 Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-92 9.5.8 Equipment Cost Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-93 9.5.8.1 Electric Water Heater Equipment Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-93 9.5.8.2 Natural Gas Water Heater Equipment Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-96 9.5.8.3 LPG Water Heater Equipment Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-98 9.5.8.4 Oil-Fired Water Heater Equipment Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-100 9.5.9 Importance Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-102

9.6 LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-102 9.6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-102 9.6.2 Equations and General Descriptions for LCC and Payback . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-102 9.6.3 General Description of Key Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-103 9.6.4 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-106 9.6.4.1 Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-106 9.6.4.2 Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-111 9.6.4.3 LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-116 9.6.4.4 Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-121 9.6.5 Importance Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-126

9.7 TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-141

9.8 STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-145 9.8.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-145 9.8.2 Analytic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-145 9.8.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-149

CHAPTER 10. CONSUMER SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

10.1 SUMMARY OF RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.2 DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 10.3 LIFE-CYCLE COST DETERMINATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-2

CHAPTER 11. SHIPMENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1 11.2 TOTAL SHIPMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1xii 11.2.1 Shipments To New Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 11.2.2 Replacements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 11.2.2.1 Total Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 11.2.2.2 Retirement Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 11.2.3 Correction to Total Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-3 11.3 MARKET SHARE IN NEW HOUSING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-5 11.3.1 Market Share by Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-5 11.3.1.1 Base Case Market Share by Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-5 11.3.2.1 Operating Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-7 11.3.2.2 Equipment and Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-7 11.3.2 Market Share by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-8 11.3.2.1 Impact of Operating Cost on Fuel Type Market Share . . . . . 11-8 11.3.2.2 Impact of Equipment Cost on Fuel Type Market Share . . . . 11-9 11.3.2.3 Household Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-10 11.3.2.4 Model Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-10 11.4 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-11

CHAPTER 12. NATIONAL ENERGY IMPACTS

12.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.2 SITE ENERGY SAVINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 12.4 EQUIPMENT COST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-5 12.5 NET PRESENT VALUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-8 12.6 MODEL SENSITIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-14

CHAPTER 13. MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-1 13.2 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-1 13.2.1 Phase 1: Industry Profile and Issue Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 13.2.2 Phase 2: “Generic” Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 13.2.3 Phase 3: Manufacturer Interview Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 13.2.4 Phase 4: Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-3 13.3 MANUFACTURING IMPACT ANALYSIS RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-3 13.3.1 Industry Profile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-3 13.3.1.1 Current Manufacturer Market Shares and Characteristics . . . . . . . 13-3 13.3.1.2 Industry Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-6 13.3.2 Manufacturer Impact Analysis Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-10 13.3.2.1 Flammable-Vapor Ignition Prevention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-11 13.3.2.2 Phase-Out of HCFC-141b as a Blowing Agent for Polyurethane Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-11 13.3.2.3 Evaluation of Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-12 13.3.3 Industry Cash Flow Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-13xiii 13.3.3.1 Manufacturing Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-14 13.3.3.2 Capital Investments/Product Conversion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-14 13.3.3.3 Financial Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-14 13.3.3.4 Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-15 13.3.3.5 Cash Flow Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-16 13.3.4 Plant Closures, Loss of Capital Assets, and Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-27 13.3.5 Employment Impacts Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-28 13.3.6 Impact on Small Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-30 13.3.7 Competitive Impacts Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-31 13.3.8 Global Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-31 13.3.9 Other Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-32 13.3.9.1 Manufacturers’ Comments on Consumer Utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-32

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACTS ANALYSIS

14.1 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.2 PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 14.3 ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-2 14.4 METHODS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-3 14.5 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-4 14.5.1 HFC-245fa Trial Standard Levels 2 and 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-4 14.5.2 Trial Standard Levels 1 and 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-5 14.5.3 Economic Growth Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-5

CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15-1

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A-1. CONTRIBUTORS TO THE TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1.1

APPENDIX A-2. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-2.1

APPENDIX B. WATER HEATER PRICE DATABASE

B.1 WATER HEATER PRICE DATABASE - DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.1.2 Data Collection Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 B.1.3 Database Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-2 B.1.4 Quality Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-5xiv B.1.5 Additional Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-5 B.2 WATER HEATER PRICE DATABASE - SUMMARY OF DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-5 B.2.1 Water Heaters by Rated Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 B.2.2 Water Heaters by Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-8 B.2.3 Water Heaters by Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-10 B.2.4 Water Heaters by Insulation Thickness Feature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-12 B.2.5 Water Heaters by Heat Trap Option. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-15 B.2.6 Water Heaters by Vent Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-17 B.2.7 Water Heaters by Electronic Ignition Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-18 B.2.8 Water Heaters by Length of Store Warranty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-19 B.2.9 Water Heaters by Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-22

APPENDIX C-1. DATA REQUEST FORMS - MANUFACTURING COSTS AND ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS FOR ELECTRIC AND GAS-FIRED STORAGE WATER HEATERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1.1

APPENDIX C-2. MANUFACTURER COST DATA FOR RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC AND GAS-FIRED WATER HEATERS

C-2.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.1 C.2.2 DATA FORMAT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.1 C-2.2 DATA TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.2

APPENDIX C-3. ESTIMATES OF MANUFACTURING COSTS AND ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS FOR ELECTRIC AND GAS-FIRED STORAGE WATER HEATERS: DATA FROM MAX MINNIER AND OTHER SOURCES

C-3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.2 C-3.2 DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.2

APPENDIX D-1. WATSIM-DOE TEST.XLS

D-1.1 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.1 D-1.2 PROGRAM DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.1 D-1.2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.1 D-1.2.2 “Results”Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.2 D-1.2.3 “tw_vs_t1”Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.3 D-1.2.4 “EF calc”Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.8xv APPENDIX D-2. WATER HEATER ANALYSIS MODEL (WHAM)

D-2.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.1 D-2.2 ALGORITHM FUNDAMENTALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.1 D-2.3 DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.3 D-2.4 CALCULATION OF STANDBY HEAT LOSS COEFFICIENT UA . . . . . D-2.5 D-2.5 SAMPLE CALCULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.6

APPENDIX D-3. VENTING ISSUES IN GAS-FIRED WATER HEATERS

D-3.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.1 D-3.2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.1 D-3.2.1 Relationship Between Flue-Loss Efficiency and Recovery Efficiency . . D-3.1 D-3.2.2 Categorization of Gas Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.2 D-3.3 SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS STUDIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.3 D-3.3.1 Replacement Installations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.4 D-3.3.1.1 Two-Appliance Configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.4 D-3.3.1.2 One-Appliance Configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.6 D-3.3.2 New Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.7 D-3.3.3 Vent Connectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.8 D-3.4 ISSUES RELATING TO BACKDRAFTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.8 D-3.5 NATIONAL FUEL GAS CODE REQUIREMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.9 D-3.6 REVIEW OF UTILITY DSM PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.9 D-3.7 VENT MODIFICATION COST SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.10 D-3.8 RECOMMENDATIONS ON VENT SYSTEMS MODIFICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . D-3.12

APPENDIX D-4. OIL-FIRED WATER HEATERS CONDUCTIVE HEAT LOSS CALCULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-4.1

APPENDIX D-5. DESIGN OPTION COMBINATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-5.1

APPENDIX D-6. METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE INPUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF SIDE ARM GAS STORAGE WATER HEATER DESIGNS . . D-6.1

APPENDIX E-1. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY

E-1.1 UNCERTAINTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1.1 E-1.2 VARIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1.2 E-1.3 APPROACHES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1.2

APPENDIX E-2. UNCERTAINTY OF ENERGY PARAMETERS EF, RE, UA, AND Pon

E-2.1 ENERGY FACTOR (EF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2.1xvi E-2.2 RECOVERY EFFICIENCY (RE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2.2 E-2.3 STANDBY HEAT LOSS COEFFICIENT (UA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2.2 E-2.4 RATED INPUT (Pon) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2.3

APPENDIX E-3. MANUFACTURING COST DISTRIBUTIONS

E-3.1 BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.1

E-3.2 MANUFACTURING COST DISTRIBUTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.2 E-3.2.1 Existing Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.2 E-3.2.2 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.4 E-3.2.3 Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.4 E-3.2.4 Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.4 E-3.2.5 Insulated Tank Bottom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.5 E-3.2.6 Side Arm Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.5 E-3.2.7 Electronic Ignition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.5 E-3.2.8 Improved Flue Baffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.5

E-3.3 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS TO FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS . . . . . . E-3.5

APPENDIX E-4. LCC AND PAYBACK FROM ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS

E-4.1 DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.1

APPENDIX E-5

.ADDITIONAL INSTALLATION COSTS DUE TO LARGER DIAMETER WATER HEATERS

E-5.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.1

E-5.2 DOWNSIZE FOR SPACE CONSTRAINTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.1

E-5.3 INCREMENTAL DRAIN PAN COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.8

E-5.4 DOORWAY RESTRICTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.10

APPENDIX F. SHIPMENTS SPREADSHEET

F.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1xvii F.2 WORKSHEETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.1 Start . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.2 Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.3 Input Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.3.1 Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.3.2 Price Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-1 F.2.3.3 Housing and Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.3.4 Energy Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.3.5 Retirement Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.4 Calculation Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.4.1 Market Share New . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.4.2 Elec WH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-2 F.2.4.3 Gas WH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.4.4 Oil WH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.4.5 LPG WH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5 Output Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5.1 Shipment Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5.2 ChartBase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5.3 Chart1-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5.4 Charts-fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.2.5.5 Chart - Incremental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-3 F.3 USING THE SPREADSHEET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F-4

APPENDIX G. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS SPREADSHEET

G.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 G.2 WORKSHEETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 G.2.1 Start . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 G.2.2 Input Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 G.2.2.1 Shipment Summary (Shipments Spreadsheet) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-1 G.2.2.2 Marginal Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 G.2.2.3 SiteSource . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 G.2.3 Calculation Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 G.2.3.1 EWH Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 G.2.3.2 EWH Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-2 G.2.3.3 GWH Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.3.4 GWH Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.3.5 OWH Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.3.6 OWH Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.3.7 LWH Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.3.8 LWH Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.4 Output Worksheets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3 G.2.4.1 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-3xviii G.2.4.2 Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-4 G.2.4.3 Outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-4 G.3 USING THE SPREADSHEET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G-4

APPENDIX H-1. WATER HEATER MANUFACTURERS INTERVIEW GUIDE

H-1.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-1.1 H-1.2 INTERVIEW GUIDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-1.1

APPENDIX H-2. GRIM OPERATING PRINCIPLES

H-2.1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-2.1 H-2.2 MODEL DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-2.1 H-2.3 INCOME STATEMENT (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-2.4

APPENDIX I. INTERPOLATION OF UTILITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESULTS FROM NEMS-BRS OUTPUT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I-1

APPENDIX J. IMBUILD MODEL

J.1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . J-1 J.2 SPREADSHEET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . J-1

APPENDIX K-1. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR RESIDENTIAL WATER HEATERS

K-1.1 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.1 K-1.2 PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.1 K-1.3 ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.1 K-1.4 METHODS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.2 K-1.4.1 Carbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.2 K-1.4.2 Power Sector NO
x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.2 K-1.4.3 Power Sector SO2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.2 K-1.4.4 Household Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.3 K-1.4.5 Fuel-Cycle Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.3 K-1.4.6 Interpolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.3 K-1.4.7 Extrapolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.3 K-1.5 RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.4 K-1.5.1 Power Sector Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.4 K-1.5.2 Residential Sector Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.7xix K-1.5.3 Power and Residential Sector Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.11 K-1.5.4 Fuel-Cycle Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.11

APPENDIX K-2. EMISSIONS FACTORS FOR FUEL COMBUSTION FROM NATURAL GAS, LPG, AND OIL-FIRED RESIDENTIAL WATER HEATERS

K-2.1 OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.1 K-2.2 EMISSIONS FACTORS BY FUEL TYPE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.2 K-2.2.1 All Fuels: Carbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.2 K-2.2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.3 K-2.2.2.1 Oxides of Nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.3 K-2.2.2.2 Sulfur Dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.3 K-2.2.3 Fuel Oil #2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.3 K-2.2.3.1 Oxides of Nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.3 K-2.2.3.2 Sulfur Dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.4 K-2.2.4 LPG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.4 K-2.2.4.1 Oxides of Nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.4 K-2.2.4.2 Sulfur Dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.5 K-2.3 SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.5

APPENDIX K-3. UPSTREAM EMISSION FACTORS FROM COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS

1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 2. METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-1 2.1 No New Regulatory Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-2 2.2 Informational Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-2 2.2.1 Consumer Product Labeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-2 2.2.2 Public Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-2 2.3 Prescriptive Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-3 2.4 Financial Incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-3 2.4.1 Tax Credits to Consumers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-4 2.4.2 Tax Credits to Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-4 2.4.3 Consumer Rebates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-4 2.4.4 Low Income and Seniors Subsidy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-5 2.5 Voluntary Efficiency Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-5 2.6 Mass Government Purchases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-6 3. RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-6xx LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Summary Characteristics of the Baseline Models for Three Water Heater Product Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3

Table 3.1 Residential Water Heating Primary Energy Consumption (1998) . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 Table 3.2 Residential Water Heater Efficiency Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5 Table 3.3 U.S. Residential Water Heating Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6 Table 3.4 Existing Cost Structures for Standard Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-8 Table 3.5 Blowing Agents Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12 Table 3.6 Conductivity of Foam Insulation Blown with HCFC-141b and HFC-245fa 3-13 Table 3.7 Conductivity of Water-Blown Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-13 Table 3.8 Conductivity of HFC-134a Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 Table 3.9 Conductivity of Pentane Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-14 Table 3.10 Conductivity of Flat Panels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15 Table 3.11 Recommendations for Relining Exterior Masonry Chimneys for Two-Appliance Configurations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-18 Table 3.12 Recommendations for Relining Exterior Masonry Chimneys for One-Appliance Configurations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-19

Table 4.1 Design Options Used in the Engineering Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-32 Table 4.2 Design Options Eliminated from Further Consideration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-33

Table 5.1 Water Heaters in Database and Shipments by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-3 Table 5.2 Sales Taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5 Table 5.3 Regional Distribution of Data Sources and U.S. Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6

Table 6.1 Foam Components Cost Estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-4 Table 6.2 Manufacturing Costs: Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-5 Table 6.3 Manufacturing Costs: Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 Table 6.4 Manufacturing Costs: Oil-Fired Water Heaters (32-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-8

Table 7.1 Manufacturer Prices of Electric Water Heaters from 1991 Through 1997 . . . 7-3 Table 7.2 Gross Margins for Home Supply Retailers and Plumbing Wholesalers . . . . . . 7-3 Table 7.3 Engineering Markups for Different Fuels and Volume Sizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7 Table 7.4 LCC Markups for Different Fuels and Volume Sizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9 Table 7.5 Manufacturing Cost of a Water Heater Estimated from the Industry Cost Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-10 Table 7.6 Markup for the Cumulative Regulatory Impacts Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 Table 7.7 Markup for the Energy-Efficiency Standards Only Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-12

Table 8.2.1 Product Classes for Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-2 Table 8.2.2 NAECA Minimum Efficiency Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-4xxi Table 8.2.3 EF Comparison: High Efficiency Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-5 Table 8.2.4 High Efficiency Electric Water Heaters EF: Certification Results . . . . . . . . . . 8-6 Table 8.3.1 Initial Existing Electric Water Heater Baseline Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-9 Table 8.3.2 Existing Baseline Electric Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-11 Table 8.3.3 Electric Water Heater Modeling Baseline - Jacket Insulation Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-13 Table 8.3.4 Electric Water Heater Modeling Heat Traps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-14 Table 8.3.5 Electric Water Heater Modeling Baseline 2-, 2.5, & 3-in. Foam Insulation . 8-15 Table 8.3.6 Electric Water Heater Modeling Differences: 2003 Baseline Model vs. Model with Foamed Bottom Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-15 Table 8.3.7 Electric Water Heater Modeling Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-16 Table 8.3.8 Electric Water Heater Material Costs with Varying Thicknesses of HCFC-141b Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-17 Table 8.3.9 Foam Components Cost Estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-18 Table 8.3.10 Electric Water Heater Material Costs with Varying Thicknesses of HFC-245fa Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-18 Table 8.3.11 Electric Water Heater for Manufacturer Costs Baseline Models . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 Table 8.3.12 Electric Water Heater: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-19 Table 8.3.13 Electric Water Heater: Incremental Manufacturer Costs for Increased Jacket Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 Table 8.3.14 2003 Electric Water Heater: Incremental Manufacturing Costs for Tank Bottom Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-20 Table 8.3.15 Plastic Tank Design for Electric Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-21 Table 8.3.16 Electric Water Heater Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-22 Table 8.3.17 Electric Water Heater Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-25 Table 8.3.18 Cost Table for 50-gal (190-liter) Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-28 Table 8.3.19 Efficiency Table for 50-gal (190-liter) Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . 8-29 Table 8.3.20 Definition of Design Options—Electric Water Heaters: HFC-245fa . . . . . . . 8-30 Table 8.4.1 Battelle Baseline Model Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-31 Table 8.4.2. TANK Input Variables: Approximate Impact on EF and RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-33 Table 8.4.3 TANK Input Values Yielding Acceptable EF and RE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-34 Table 8.4.4 Gas-Fired Water Heater Baseline Model Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-35 Table 8.4.5 Baseline Gas-Fired Water Heater Models—Jacket Insulation Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-37 Table 8.4.6 Gas-Fired Water Heater Modeling Baseline, 2, 2.5, & 3 inch Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-37 Table 8.4.7 2003 Baseline Models vs. Gas Fired Water Heater with Improved Flue Baffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-39 Table 8.4.8 2003 Baseline Gas-Fired Water Heater vs. Model with Electronic Ignition . 8-41 Table 8.4.9 2003 Baseline Model vs. Gas-Fired Water Heater with Electromechanical Flue Damper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-42 Table 8.4.10 Energy Factor Estimates for Side Arm Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . 8-43 Table 8.4.11 Energy Factor Estimates for Side Arm Gas-Fired Water Heater withxxii Plastic Tank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-44 Table 8.4.12 Existing Baseline Model Manufacturer Costs for Gas-Fired Water Heater . . 8-45 Table 8.4.13 Material Costs of HCFC-141b Foam Insulation Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . 8-45 Table 8.4.14 Material Costs of HFC-245fa Foam Insulation Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . 8-46 Table 8.4.15 Manufacturer Costs of Gas-Fired Water Heater Baseline Models with HCFC-141b and HFC-245fa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-46 Table 8.4.16 “2003" Baseline Model Flammable-Vapor Ignition-Resistant Design Manufacturer Costs for Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47 Table 8.4.17 Incremental Manufacturer Costs for Heat Traps for Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-47 Table 8.4.18 Increased Jacket Insulation for HFC-245fa 2003 Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-48 Table 8.4.19 Improved Flue Baffle Design for Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-48 Table 8.4.20 Electronic Ignition for Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 Table 8.4.21 Flue Damper w/ Electronic Ignition for Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-49 Table 8.4.22 Side Arm Heaters for Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-50 Table 8.4.23 Side Arm Heaters w/Electronic Ignition for Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Incremental Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-50 Table 8.4.24 Gas-Fired Water Heater Retail Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-52 Table 8.4.25 Gas-Fired Storage Water Heater Installation Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-54 Table 8.4.25 Cost Table for 40-gal (150-liter) Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-61 Table 8.4.26 Efficiency Table for 40-gal (150-liter) Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . 8-62 Table 8.4.27 Definition of Design Options—Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-63 Table 8.5.1 Oil-Fired Water Heater Baseline Model Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-64 Table 8.5.2 Performance Characteristics for Existing Baseline Oil-Fired Water Heater . 8-65 Table 8.5.3 Jacket Insulation Characteristics for Oil-fired Baseline Water Heaters . . . . . 8-67 Table 8.5.4 Performance Characteristics for 2003 Baseline Oil-Fired Water Heater . . . . 8-67 Table 8.5.5 Analysis Results for Heat Traps Design Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-67 Table 8.5.6 HFC-245fa 2003 Models with 2-, 2.5-, & 3- in. Foam Insulation . . . . . . . . . 8-71 Table 8.5.7 Improved Flue Baffle Design Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-71 Table 8.5.8 Increased Heat Exchanger Area Design Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-72 Table 8.5.9 Interrupted Ignition Design (HFC-245fa 2003 Model) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-75 Table 8.5.10 Cost Table for 32-gal (150-liter) Oil-Fired Water Heater—HFC-245fa 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-82 Table 8.5.11 Efficiency Table for 32-gal (150-liter) Oil-Fired Water Heater—HFC-245fa 2003 Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-82 Table 8.5.12 Definition of Design Options—Oil-Fired Water Heaters: HFC-245fa . . . . . 8-83 Table 8.6.1 Engineering Results for HFC-134a Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-84 Table 8.6.2 Engineering Results for Cyclopentane Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-85xxiii Table 9.1.1 Definition of Design Options for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-3 Table 9.1.2 Definition of Design Options for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-4 Table 9.1.3 Definition of Design Options for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-4 Table 9.1.4 Definition of Design Options for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-5 Table 9.1.5 1997 RECS Household Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-6 Table 9.1.6 Profile of RECS Households Not Used in Consumer Sub-Group Analysis . . . 9-6 Table 9.2.1 Water Heater Sizes Selected for LCC Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-16 Table 9.3.1 Water Heater Design Characteristic Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-29 Table 9.3.2 Electric Water Heater Modeling Parameter Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-30 Table 9.3.3 Natural Gas and LPG Water Heater Modeling Parameter Variations . . . . . . 9-31 Table 9.3.4 Oil-Fired Water Heater Modeling Parameter Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-31 Table 9.3.5 Energy Efficiency Characteristics for Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-33 Table 9.3.6 Energy Efficiency Characteristics for Natural Gas and LPG Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-34 Table 9.3.7 Energy Efficiency Characteristics for Oil-Fired Water Heaters (32-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-34 Table 9.3.8 Water Heater Locations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-37 Table 9.3.9 Energy Consumption for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-38 Table 9.3.10 Energy Consumption for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-40 Table 9.3.11 Energy Consumption for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-43 Table 9.3.12 Energy Consumption for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-45 Table 9.4.1 Marginal Residential Electricity Prices - RECS97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-64 Table 9.4.2 Marginal Residential Natural Gas Prices - RECS97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-64 Table 9.4.3 Operating Costs for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-66 Table 9.4.4 Operating Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-69 Table 9.4.5 Operating Costs for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-71 Table 9.4.6 Operating Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-73 Table 9.5.1 Retail Price Data for Existing Baseline Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-86 Table 9.5.2 Total Manufacturing Cost Data for Typical Existing Baseline Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-87 Table 9.5.3 Total Manufacturing Cost Data for Standard-Size Existing Baseline Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-87 Table 9.5.4 Markups by Fuel Type and Tank Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-88 Table 9.5.5 Incremental Costs for Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-90 Table 9.5.6 Incremental Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-91 Table 9.5.7 Incremental Costs for LPG Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-91 Table 9.5.8 Incremental Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters (32-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-92 Table 9.5.9 Existing Baseline Water Heaters for Installation Cost Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-93 Table 9.5.10 Equipment Costs for Electric Water Heaters (All Sizes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-94 Table 9.5.11 Equipment Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters (All Sizes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-96 Table 9.5.12 Equipment Costs for LPG Water Heaters (All Sizes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-98 Table 9.5.13 Equipment Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters (All Sizes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-100 Table 9.6.1 Water Heater Lifetimes by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-105xxiv Table 9.6.2 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-106 Table 9.6.3 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-107 Table 9.6.4 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . 9-111 Table 9.6.5 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-112 Table 9.6.6 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-116 Table 9.6.7 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-117 Table 9.6.8 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-121 Table 9.6.9 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-122 Table 9.7.1 Trial Standard Levels for Design Options: Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . 9-141 Table 9.7.2 Trial Standard Levels for Design Options: Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . 9-142 Table 9.7.3 Trial Standard Levels for Design Options: LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . 9-143 Table 9.7.4 Trial Standard Levels for Design Options: Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . 9-144 Table 9.8.1 Sample t-test Results for Electric Delta LCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-146 Table 9.8.2 Sample t-test Results for Electric Delta Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-146 Table 9.8.3 Sample t-test Results for Gas Delta LCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-147 Table 9.8.4 Sample t-test Results for Gas Delta Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-147 Table 9.8.5 Analysis of Variance for Electric Delta LCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-148 Table 9.8.6 Analysis of Variance for Electric Delta Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-148 Table 9.8.7 Analysis of Variance for Gas Delta LCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-149 Table 9.8.8 Analysis of Variance for Gas Delta Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-149

Table 10.1 Summary of Delta LCC Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 Table 10.2 Households by Consumer Sub-Group Category and Water Heater Fuel . . . . 10-2

Table 11.1 Estimated Base Case Market Share Assigned to Design Options by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-6 Table 11.2 Average Retail and Installation Costs by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-8 Table 11.3 Fuel Type Operating Cost Elasticity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-9 Table 11.4 Implicit Discount Rates by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-10 Table 11.5 Market Share by Fuel Type for New Housing in 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-10 Table 11.6 Total Shipments in 2004 and Integrated over Forecast Period, 2004-2030 . 11-12 Table 11.7 Fuel Type Market Share in New Housing by Trial Standard Level . . . . . . . 11-12 Table 11.8 Total Shipments During 2004-2030 by Fuel Type and Trial Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-13

Table 12.1 Net Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-8 Table 12.2 Cumulative Source Energy Savings for the Period 2004 to 2030 . . . . . . . . 12-13

Table 13.1 List of Water Heater Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-4 Table 13.2 Manufacturer Sub-groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-6xxv Table 13.3 Shipments and Value of Household Water Heaters in 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-7 Table 13.4 Capital and Product Conversion Costs for Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-14 Table 13.5 Financial Inputs for GRIM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-15 Table 13.6 Business Scenario 1: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-17 Table 13.7 Business Scenario 2: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-19 Table 13.8 Business Scenario 3: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-21 Table 13.9 Business Scenario 1: Short Term Cash Flows ($ million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-23 Table 13.10 Business Scenario 2: Short Term Cash Flows ($ million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-24 Table 13.11 Business Scenario 3: Short Term Cash Flows ($ million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-25 Table 13.12 Impacts on Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-28 Table 13.13 Impacts on Employment Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-30 Table 13.14 Impact on Small Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-31 Table 13.15 Effect on Global Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-32

Table 14.1 Reference Case: Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-6 Table 14.2 Trial Standard Level 1 – Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-7 Table 14.3 Trial Standard Level 2 – Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-8 Table 14.4 Trial Standard Level 3 – Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-9 Table 14.5 Trial Standard Level 4 – Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-10 Table 14.6 Trial Standard Level 1 – Low Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-11 Table 14.7 Trial Standard Level 2 – Low Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-12 Table 14.8 Trial Standard Level 3 – Low Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-13 Table 14.9 Trial Standard Level 4 – Low Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-14 Table 14.10 Trial Standard Level 1 – High Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-15 Table 14.11 Trial Standard Level 2 – High Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-16 Table 14.12 Trial Standard Level 3 – High Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-17 Table 14.13 Trial Standard Level 4 – High Economic Growth Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-18

Table 15.1 Net National Change in Jobs

..................................... 15.2

Table B.1 Variables and Definitions in Source Information Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-2 Table B.2 Variables and Definitions in Price Information Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-3 Table B.3 Variables and Definitions from Model Information Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-4 Table B.4a Electric Water Heaters by Rated Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-6 Table B.4b Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Rated Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-7 Table B.5a Reported Electric Water Heaters by Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-8 Table B.5b Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-9 Table B.6a Reported Electric Water Heaters by Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-11 Table B.6b Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-12 Table B.7a Reported Electric Water Heaters by Insulation Thickness Feature . . . . . . . . B-13 Table B.7b Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Insulation Thickness Feature . . . . . . . B-14 Table B.8a Electric Water Heaters by Heat Trap Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-15 Table B.8b Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Heat Trap Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-16 Table B.9 Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Vent Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-17xxvi Table B.10 Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Electronic Ignition Feature . . . . . . . . B-18 Table B.11a Reported Electric Water Heaters by Length of Store Warranty (in Years) . . B-20 Table B.11b Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Length of Store Warranty (in Years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-21 Table B.12 Count of Water Heater Models Reported with Services and Fees . . . . . . . . . B-22

Table C-1.1 Manufacturing Cost Data Request - Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1.2 Table C-1.2 Energy Characteristics - Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1.3 Table C-1.3 Manufacturing Cost Data Request - Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . C-1.4 Table C-1.4 Energy Characteristics - Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-1.5

Table C-2.1 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Variable Cost – Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.3 Table C-2.2 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Fixed Cost – Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.3 Table C-2.3 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Total Cost – Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.4 Table C-2.4 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Variable Cost – Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.4 Table C-2.5 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Fixed Cost – Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.5 Table C-2.6 GAMA Manufacturing Cost: Cumulative Total Cost – Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2.5 Table C-2.7 Average Design Option Component Costs – Electric Water Heaters . . . . . C-2.6 Table C-2.8 Average Design Option Component Costs – Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . C-2.6

Table C-3.1 Manufacturing Cost - Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.6 Table C-3.2 Energy Characteristics - Electric Water Heaters (50-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.7 Table C-3.3 Manufacturing Cost - Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.8 Table C-3.4 Energy Characteristics - Gas-Fired Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.9 Table C-3.5 Incremental Manufacturing Cost for 3" vs. 4" Flue Diameter - Gas-Fired Water Heaters (30-gal and 40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.10 Table C-3.6 Incremental Manufacturing Cost for LPG Water Heaters (40-gal) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-3.10

Table D-2.1 DOE Test Procedure Operating Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.2 Table D-2.2 WHAM Sample Calculation with Specified Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.7 Table D-2.3 UA Sample Calculation with Specified Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2.8

Table D-3.1 Summary of Recommendations for Relining Exterior Masonry Chimneys for Residential Installations in a Two-Appliance Configuration . . . . . . . . . D-3.5 Table D-3.2 Climate Zones of the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.6 Table D-3.3 Summary of General Recommendations for Relining Exterior Masonry Chimneys for Residential Installations in a One-Appliance Configuration . D-3.7xxvii Table D-3.4 Data Set 1 - Summary of Cost Estimates and Comparison with GRI . . . . D-3.11 Table D-3.5 Data Set 2 – Summary of Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.11 Table D-3.6 Estimate of Average Cost of Installing Type-B Vent Connectors in Different Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.14 Table D-3.7 Estimate of Average Cost of Relining Masonry Chimneys in Different Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.15 Table D-3.8 Raw Survey Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.16

Table D-5.1 Complete List of Alternative Design Option Combinations - Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-5.3 Table D-5.2 Complete List of Alternative Design Option Combinations - Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-5.4

Table E-2.1 Uncertainty of Rated Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-2.5

Table E-4.1 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.2 Table E-4.2 Operating Costs for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.2 Table E-4.3 Energy Consumption for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.3 Table E-4.4 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.4 Table E-4.5 Operating Costs for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.4 Table E-4.6 Energy Consumption for Electric Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.5 Table E-4.7 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Electric Water Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . E-4.6 Table E-4.8 Operating Costs for Electric Water Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.6 Table E-4.9 Energy Consumption for Electric Water Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.7 Table E-4.10 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Natural Gas Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.8 Table E-4.11 Operating Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.8 Table E-4.12 Energy Consumption for Natural Gas Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.9 Table E-4.13 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Natural Gas Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.10 Table E-4.14 Operating Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.10 Table E-4.15 Energy Consumption for Natural Gas Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.11 Table E-4.16 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Natural Gas Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . . E-4.12 Table E-4.17 Operating Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.12xxviii Table E-4.18 Energy Consumption for Natural Gas Water Heaters: GRI2000 . . . . . . . E-4.13 Table E-4.19 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.14 Table E-4.20 Operating Costs for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . E-4.14 Table E-4.21 Energy Consumption for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.15 Table E-4.22 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.16 Table E-4.23 Operating Costs for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . E-4.16 Table E-4.24 Energy Consumption for LPG Water Heaters: AEO2000 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.17 Table E-4.28 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.18 Table E-4.29 Operating Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.18 Table E-4.30 Energy Consumption for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 High Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.19 Table E-4.31 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.20 Table E-4.32 Operating Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.20 Table E-4.33 Energy Consumption for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: AEO99 Low Growth Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.21 Table E-4.34 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: GRI98 . . . . . E-4.22 Table E-4.35 Operating Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: GRI98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.22 Table E-4.36 Energy Consumption for Oil-Fired Water Heaters: GRI98 . . . . . . . . . . . E-4.23

Table E-5.1 First Hour Rating and Related Volumes for Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.6

Table H-2.1 Calculation of Net Income Before Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H-2.4

Table I-1 Set of Multipliers for Each Trial Standard Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I-2

Table K-1.1 Power Sector Emissions: Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.5 Table K-1.2 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Through 2020: Power Sector . . . . . . . . K-1.5 Table K-1.3 Power Sector Emissions: Low Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.6 Table K-1.4 Power Sector Emissions: High Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.7 Table K-1.5 Change in Household Emissions: Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.8 Table K-1.6 Change in Household Emissions: Low Economic Growth Case . . . . . . . . . K-1.9 Table K-1.7 Change in Household Emissions: High Economic Growth Case . . . . . . . . K-1.10 Table K-1.8 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Through 2020: Households . . . . . . . . K-1.10 Table K-1.9 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Through 2020: Power Sector and Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.11xxix Table K-1.10 Cumulative Emissions Reductions Through 2030: Power Sector and Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-1.11

Table K-2.1 Estimated National Average Emissions Factors for Household Fuel Combustion of Natural Gas, Fuel Oil #2, and LPG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-2.2

Table K-3.1 Estimated Upstream Emission Factors and Relative Percentages To Direct Power Plant Combustion Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . K-3.2

Table RIA.1 Energy-Efficient Design Options Qualifying for Financial Incentive Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-4 Table RIA.2 Regulatory Alternative Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RIA-7xxx LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Framework Flowchart for Water Heater Energy Efficiency Analysis . . . . . . . . 2-2

Figure 3.1 Primary Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector (1998) . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 Figure 3.2 Water Heating Primary Energy Consumption (1998) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 Figure 3.3 Residential Electric Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-3 Figure 3.4 Residential Gas-Fired Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-4 Figure 3.5 Distribution Channels for Residential Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-7 Figure 3.6 Typical Markups for Residential Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-8 Figure 3.7 Water Heater Manufacturing Cost Breakdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 Figure 3.8 Average Energy Factor by Blowing Agent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-15

Figure 5.1 Water Heater Units by Distributor Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4 Figure 5.2 Store Locations Represented in Water Heater Price Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Figure 5.3 Unit Count of Electric Water Heaters in Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 Figure 5.4 Unit Count of Gas-Fired Water Heaters in Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 Figure 5.5 Retail Price Ranges: Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 Figure 5.6 Retail Price Ranges: Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-9 Figure 5.7 Unit Count of Electric Water Heaters with Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10 Figure 5.8 Unit Count of Gas-Fired Water Heaters with Installation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . 5-10 Figure 5.9 Installation Cost Ranges: Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-11 Figure 5.10 Installation Cost Ranges: Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-11 Figure 5.11 Electric Water Heaters: Shipments vs Sample Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12 Figure 5.12 Gas-Fired Water Heaters: Shipments vs Sample Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-12

Figure 6.1 Full Production Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2 Figure 6.2 Manufacturing Cost Assessment Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2

Figure 8.3.1 Payback Period vs. Energy Factor: Electric Water heaters, 50-gal (190-lit) . . 8-29 Figure 8.4.1 Energy Factor and Recovery Efficiency vs. Flue Baffle Effectiveness and Excess Combustion Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-32 Figure 8.5.1 Payback Period vs. Energy Factor: Oil-Fired Water Heaters, 32-gal (120-liter) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-81

Figure 9.2.1 Frequency Charts of Hot Water Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-18 Figure 9.2.2 Importance of Input Variables to Hot Water Use for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-20 Figure 9.2.3 Importance of Input Variables to Hot Water Use for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-21 Figure 9.2.4 Importance of Input Variables to Hot Water Use for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-22 Figure 9.2.5 Importance of Input Variables to Hot Water Use for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-23xxxi Figure 9.3.1 Comparison of Setpoint and Inlet Water Temperatures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-36 Figure 9.3.2 Differences in Energy Consumption by Design Option for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-39 Figure 9.3.3 Differences in Energy Consumption by Design Option for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-42 Figure 9.3.4 Differences in Energy Consumption by Design Option for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-44 Figure 9.3.5 Differences in Energy Consumption by Design Option for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-46 Figure 9.3.6 Importance of Input Parameters to Annual Energy Consumption for 2.5" Insulation on Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-48 Figure 9.3.7 Importance of Input Parameters to Annual Energy Consumption for 78% RE, 2" Insulation on Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-49 Figure 9.3.8 Importance of Input Parameters to Annual Energy Consumption for 78% RE, 2" Insulation on LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-50 Figure 9.3.9 Importance of Input Parameters to Annual Energy Consumption for 2003 Baseline on Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-51 Figure 9.4.1 Electricity Price Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-60 Figure 9.4.2 Natural Gas Price Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-60 Figure 9.4.3 LPG Price Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-61 Figure 9.4.4 Oil Price Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-61 Figure 9.4.5 Difference in Operating Costs by Design Option for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-68 Figure 9.4.6 Difference in Operating Costs by Design Option for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-70 Figure 9.4.7 Difference in Operating Costs by Design Option for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-72 Figure 9.4.8 Difference in Operating Costs by Design Option for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-74 Figure 9.4.9 Importance of Input Parameters to Operating Cost for 2.5" Insulation on Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-76 Figure 9.4.10 Importance of Input Parameters to Operating Cost for 78% RE 2" Insulation on Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-77 Figure 9.4.11 Importance of Input Parameters to Operating Cost for 78% RE 2" Insulation on LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-78 Figure 9.4.12 Importance of Input Parameters to Operating Cost for 2003 Baseline on Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-79 Figure 9.5.1 Difference in Total Installed Cost by Design Option for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-95 Figure 9.5.2 Difference in Total Installed Costs by Design Option for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-97 Figure 9.5.3 Difference in Total Installed Costs by Design Option for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-99xxxii Figure 9.5.4 Difference in Total Installed Costs by Design Option for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-101 Figure 9.5.5 Importance of Input Variables to Total Installed Cost for 2.5" Insulation on Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-103 Figure 9.5.6 Importance of Input Variables to Total Installed Cost for 78% RE and 2" Insulation on Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-104 Figure 9.5.7 Importance of Input Variables to Total Installed Cost for 78% RE and 2" Insulation on LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-105 Figure 9.5.8 Importance of Input Variables to Total Installed Cost for 2003 Baseline on Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-106 Figure 9.6.1 Distribution of Consumer Real Discount Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-104 Figure 9.6.2 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-107 Figure 9.6.3 Difference in Life-Cycle Costs by Design Option for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-109 Figure 9.6.4 Payback Period by Design Option for Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-110 Figure 9.6.5 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-113 Figure 9.6.6 Difference in Life-Cycle Costs by Design Option for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-114 Figure 9.6.7 Payback Period by Design Option for Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-115 Figure 9.6.8 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-117 Figure 9.6.9 Difference in Life-Cycle Costs by Design Option for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-119 Figure 9.6.10 Payback Period by Design Option for LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-120 Figure 9.6.11 Percent of Sample Having Net Savings or Costs for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-122 Figure 9.6.12 Difference in Life-Cycle Costs by Design Option for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-124 Figure 9.6.13 Payback Period by Design Option for Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-125 Figure 9.6.14 Importance of Input Variables to the Life-Cycle Cost for 2.5" Insulation on Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-127 Figure 9.6.15 Importance of Input Variables to the Life-Cycle Cost for 78% RE 2" Insulation on Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-128 Figure 9.6.16 Importance of Input Variables to the Life-Cycle Cost for 78% RE 2" Insulation on LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-129 Figure 9.6.17 Importance of Input Variables to the Life-Cycle Cost for 2003 Baseline Oil-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-130xxxiii Figure 9.6.18 Importance of Input Variables to the Payback Period for 2.5" Insulation on Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-131 Figure 9.6.19 Importance of Input Variables to the Payback Period for 78% RE 2" Insulation on Natural Gas Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-132 Figure 9.6.20 Importance of Input Variables to the Payback Period for 78% RE 2" Insulation on LPG Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-133

Figure 10.1 Average Number of People Per Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-3 Figure 10.2 Average Water Heater Thermostat Setpoint Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-4 Figure 10.3 Average Daily Hot Water Volume per Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-5 Figure 10.4 Percentage of Low-Income Households by Census Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-6 Figure 10.5 Percentage of Senior-Only Households by Census Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-6 Figure 10.6 Life-Cycle Cost for All Households in Sample — Baseline Electric Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-7 Figure 10.7 Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Households — Baseline Electric Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-7 Figure 10.8 Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Households — Baseline Electric Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 Figure 10.9 Life-Cycle Cost for All Households in Sample — Baseline Gas Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-8 Figure 10.10 Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Households — Baseline Gas Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-9 Figure 10.11 Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Households — Baseline Gas Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-9 Figure 10.12 Life-Cycle Cost for All Households in Sample — Baseline LPG Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 Figure 10.13 Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Households — Baseline LPG Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-10 Figure 10.14 Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Households — Baseline LPG Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 Figure 10.15 Life-Cycle Cost for All Households in Sample — Baseline Oil Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-11 Figure 10.16 Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Households — Baseline Oil Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-12 Figure 10.17 Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Households — Baseline Oil Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-12 Figure 10.18 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for All Electric Households in Sample — Trail Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-13 Figure 10.19 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Electric Households — Trial Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 Figure 10.20 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Electric Households — Trial Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14 Figure 10.21 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for All Natural Gas Households in Sample - Trial Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15xxxiv Figure 10.22 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for Low-Income Natural Gas Households - Trial Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 Figure 10.23 Delta Life-Cycle Cost for Senior-Only Natural Gas Households — Trial Standard 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16

Figure 11.1 Water Heater Retirement Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-3 Figure 11.2 Total Water Heater Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-4 Figure 11.3 Correction Function Applied to Total Water Heater Replacements . . . . . . . . 11-4 Figure 11.4 Incremental Shipments (Relative to Baseline) by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-13

Figure 12.1 Incremental Site Energy Savings by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 Figure 12.2 Fuel Savings, Equipment Cost, Net Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-7 Figure 12.3 Total Fuel and Equipment Expenditures: Electric and Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-10 Figure 12.4 NPV for Electric and Gas-Fired Water Heaters and Combined NPV . . . . . . 12-12 Figure 12.5 Source Savings and Net Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-14

Figure 13.1 Residential Water Heater Market Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-4 Figure 13.2 Historical Trends in Value of Water Heater Shipments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-6 Figure 13.3 Historic Revenue per Water Heater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-8 Figure 13.4 Shares of Water Heaters Sold by Outlets for 1997 (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-9 Figure 13.5 Business Scenario 1: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-17 Figure 13.6 Business Scenario 2: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-20 Figure 13.7 Business Scenario 3: Manufacturer Prices and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-22 Figure 13.8 Short-Term Cash Flows for Business Scenario 3 Cumulative . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-26 Figure 13.9 Short-Term Cash Flows for Business Scenario 3 Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-26

Figure 15.1 Net National Employment Impacts

................................. 15.1 Figure 15.2 Employment Impacts of Consumer Savings

.......................... 15.4 Figure 15.3 Employment Impacts of Equipment Price

............................ 15.5 Figure 15.4 Employment Impacts of Installation Cost

............................ 15.6 Figure 15.5 Employment Impacts of Utility Impacts

............................. 15.7 Figure 15.6 Net National Employment Impacts,AEO2000High Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.8 Figure 15.7 Net National Employment Impacts,AEO2000Low Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9

Figure B.1a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Rated Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-7 Figure B.1b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Rated Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-8 Figure B.2a Reported Electric Water Heaters by Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-9 Figure B.2b Reported Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-10 Figure B.3a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-11 Figure B.3b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Shape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-12 Figure B.4a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Insulation Thickness Feature . . . . . B-13 Figure B.4b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Insulation Thickness Feature . . . B-14 Figure B.5a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Heat Trap Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-16xxxv Figure B.5b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Heat Trap Option . . . . . . . . . . . . B-17 Figure B.6 Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Vent Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-18 Figure B.7 Distribution of Total Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Electronic Ignition Feature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-19 Figure B.8a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Length of Store Warranty (in Years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-20 Figure B.8b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Length of Store Warranty (in Years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-21 Figure B.9a Distribution of Electric Water Heaters by Fee Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-23 Figure B.9b Distribution of Gas-Fired Water Heaters by Fee Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-23

Figure D-1.1 Excel Screen View ofResultsWorksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.2 Figure D-1.2 Excel Screen View (1 of 2) of tw_vs_t1 Worksheet:tw_vs_t1.out Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.4 Figure D-1.3 Excel Screen View (2 of 2) oftw_vs_t1Worksheet: Calculated Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1.5 Figure D-1.4 Energy Performance Values as Presented in theEF calcWorksheet . . . . . D-1.13

Figure D-3.1 Five Climate Zones of the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3.6

Figure E-3.1 Manufacturer Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.1 Figure E-3.2 Manufacturer Cost Distribution for Baseline Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . E-3.3 Figure E-3.3 Adjusted Manufacturer Cost Distribution for Baseline Electric Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.3 Figure E-3.4 Difference Between Cumulative Cost Curves of Heat Traps and Baseline Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.5 Figure E-3.5 Incremental Manufacturer Costs of Heat Traps on Gas-Fired Water Heaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-3.6

Figure E-5.1 Space Constraints Flowchart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.3 Figure E-5.2 Schematic of Tempering Valve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.7 Figure E-5.3 Drain Pan Size Increase Flowchart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.8 Figure E-5.4 Door Jam and Frame Removal Cost Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-5.10

Figure I-1 An Example of the Interpolation of a Trial Standard Level: Difference in Coal Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I-4 Figure I-2 Example of a Trial Standard Level: Marginal NO

xEmissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . I-5