7/19/2011

Uncertainty analysis - parameters varied

Low case

ICMs lower by 20%

Aero direct mfg costs (DMC) lower by 10%

APU DMC lower by 10%

Turbo/compounding DMC lower by 10%

AEO2011 Low Oil case fuel prices used

High case

ICMs higher by 20%

Aero DMC higher by 10%

APU DMC higher by 10%

Turbo/compounding DMC higher by 10%

AEO2011 High Oil case fuel prices used

Summary shows results of MY analysis for Alt 3
AEO2011 - Low oil prices

Pkg_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0-Low

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $5,900 $5,100 $4,900 $6,800 $7,600 $30,200

Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $4,860 $4,160 $3,860 $5,980 $6,600 $25,460

3% (avg SCC) $5,760 $4,860 $4,560 $6,980 $7,800 $29,960

2.5% (avg SCC) $6,460 $5,560 $5,160 $7,780 $8,700 $33,660

3% (95th percentile) $7,960 $6,860 $6,460 $9,680 $10,800 $41,260

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $4,400 $3,700 $3,400 $4,600 $4,900 $20,900

Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $3,350 $2,740 $2,340 $3,660 $3,660 $15,650

3% (avg SCC) $4,250 $3,440 $3,040 $4,660 $4,860 $20,150

2.5% (avg SCC) $4,950 $4,140 $3,640 $5,460 $5,760 $23,850

3% (95th percentile) $6,450 $5,440 $4,940 $7,360 $7,860 $31,450

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)
AEO2011 - Reference case

Pkg_v2.6.1; Prog_v1.22.0

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $9,300 $8,300 $8,100 $11,500 $12,900 $50,100

Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $8,160 $7,260 $6,960 $10,580 $11,700 $44,760

3% (avg SCC) $9,060 $7,960 $7,660 $11,580 $12,900 $49,260

2.5% (avg SCC) $9,760 $8,660 $8,260 $12,380 $13,800 $52,960

3% (95th percentile) $11,260 $9,960 $9,560 $14,280 $15,900 $60,560

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $6,900 $5,900 $5,600 $7,600 $8,300 $34,400

Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $5,750 $4,840 $4,440 $6,560 $6,860 $28,550

3% (avg SCC) $6,650 $5,540 $5,140 $7,560 $8,060 $33,050

2.5% (avg SCC) $7,350 $6,240 $5,740 $8,360 $8,960 $36,750

3% (95th percentile) $8,850 $7,540 $7,040 $10,260 $11,060 $44,350

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)
AEO2011 - High oil prices

Pkg_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0-High

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $13,600 $12,000 $11,800 $16,700 $18,800 $72,900

Energy Security $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $12,360 $10,860 $10,560 $15,680 $17,500 $67,060

3% (avg SCC) $13,260 $11,560 $11,260 $16,680 $18,700 $71,560

2.5% (avg SCC) $13,960 $12,260 $11,860 $17,480 $19,600 $75,260

3% (95th percentile) $15,460 $13,560 $13,160 $19,380 $21,700 $82,860

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $10,100 $8,600 $8,100 $11,100 $12,000 $49,900

Energy Security $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $8,850 $7,440 $6,840 $9,960 $10,460 $43,550

3% (avg SCC) $9,750 $8,140 $7,540 $10,960 $11,660 $48,050

2.5% (avg SCC) $10,450 $8,840 $8,140 $11,760 $12,560 $51,750

3% (95th percentile) $11,950 $10,140 $9,440 $13,660 $14,660 $59,350

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)