## St a te o f Ca li f or ni a

C a li f o r n i a E n v ir on me n tal P r o te c t i o n A g e n c y



# A I R R ES O U RC E S B O A R D

St a ff Re po r t



# San Joaquin Valley 2013 Plan for the Federal

1

- Hour Ozone Standard

Re l ea s e Date: November 8, 2013

M eet i ng Date: N o v ember 21, 2 0 1 3T h is do c u m e n t ha s b e e n r e v i e w e d b y t h e st a ff o f t h e C a l i f o r n ia A ir R e s ou r c e s B oa r d an d

app r o v e d f o r p ub l i c a ti on

. A p p r o v a l doe s no t si g n i f y t ha t t h e c o n t en ts ne c e ss a r ily r e f l e c t

t h e v i e w s an d p o lici e s o f t h e A ir R e s o ur c e s Boa rd

, n o r d o e s t h e m e n ti o n o f t r ade na m e s

o r c o m m e r ci a l p r odu cts c on s tit u t e en do r s e m e n t o r r e c omm en d a ti o n f o r u s e.

Electronic copies from this document are available for download from the Air Resources

Board’s Internet site at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/planarea/sanjqnvllysip.htm

In addition, written copies may be obtained from the Public Information Officer, Air

Resources Board, 1001 I Street (1 st Floor), Visitors and Environmental Services Center,

Sacramento, California 95814, (916) 322

- 2990

.

F o r i nd i v i dua ls w ith s en s o r y d is ab ili ti e s, t h is do c u m e n t is a v a il ab le i n B r a ill e

, l a rg e p r i n t

, aud i o c a ss e t t e o r c o mp u t e r d isk

. P l e a se c o n t a ct A R B 's Dis a b ility C oo r d i na t o r at

( 916 ) 3 23

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, t o p l a ce y our

r e q ue st f o r d is ab ility s e r vic e s

. I f y o u a r e a pe r s o n w ith li m it e d En g lish a n d w ou ld like t o

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( 916 ) 3 23

- 7 0 53.

For qu es t ion s

, c on ta c t:

Mr

. W e b s t e r T a s a t

M ana g e r

, C en t r a l Va ll e y A ir Q ua lity P l ann i n g Se cti on

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- 4 9 50

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## T A BL E O F C O N T E N TS

I. I NTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ......................... 1

II. NATURE OF THE OZONE PROBLEM IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

... 2

A. Ozone Health Effects

................................ ................................ .............. 2

B. Geography and Population

................................ ................................ ..... 2

C. Air Quality Progress

................................ ................................ ................ 3

III. CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS

................................ ............................ 6

A. Emissions Inventory

................................ ................................ ................ 6

B. Reasonably Available Control Measure Analysis and Control Strategy.. 6

C. Demonstratin g Attainment

................................ ................................ ...... 7

1. Modeling Approach and Results

................................ ........................ 8

2. Weight of Evidence

................................ ................................ ........... 9

D. Rate of Progress Demonstration

................................ ............................. 9

E. Contingency Measures

................................ ................................ ........... 10

F. Clean Fuels and Clean Technologies for Boilers

................................ .... 1 1

G. VMT Offset Demonstration

................................ ................................ ..... 11

IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

................................ ................................ ..... 12

V. STAFF RECOMMENDATION

................................ ................................ ...... 1 2

APPENDICES

Appendix A

- District submittal letter and Governing Board Resolution

Appendix B

- Link to District 2013 1

- hour Ozone PlanThis page intentionally left b lankI. INTRODUCTION

T h e S a n J oa q u in V a ll e y A ir P o ll u ti o n C on t r o l Dist r ict ( Dist r ict) adopted the 2 0 13 P l a n f o r

t h e 1

- Hou r Ozone St a n d a r d ( 2013 Plan ) o n S e p t e m be r 1 9

, 20 1 3

. T h e 2013 P l a n

demonstrates that the San Joaquin Valley will attain the federal 1

- hour ozone standard

by 2017

. T h e A ir R e s ou r c es Boa r d ( A RB o r B oa r d ) w i ll c on si de r a p p r o v a l o f t h e 2013

P l a n a t a p u b lic m e e ti n g on N o v e m be r 2 1

, 2 0 1 3 , and, i f adopted, t h e 2013 P l an w ill b e

s u b m it t e d to t he U. S

. En v i r on m en t a l P r o t e cti o n A g en cy ( U. S

. EPA ) f o r a p p ro v a l as a

revision to California’s Stat e Implementation Plan (SIP)

.

U.S

. EPA established the 1

- hour ozone standard and originally classified the San

Joaquin Valley as a serious nonattainment area

. Due to the s everity of the air quality

problem

, U.S. EP A subsequently reclassif ied the Valley as extreme nonattainment and

set 2010 as the deadline for attainment

. In 2004, t he District prepared the Extreme

Ozone Attainment Demonstration Plan ( 2004 Plan ) , which identified a comprehensive

emission reduction strategy aimed at bringing the Valley into attainment by 2010.

In 2005

, U.S

. EPA revoked the 1

- hour ozone standard due to promulgation of the more

health protective 8

- hour ozone standard

. However, certain planning obligations

associa ted with the 1

- hour ozone standard still remain and c ourt action in 2011 led to a

finding that the San Joaquin Valley did not attain by the 2010 deadline

. U.S

. EPA

subsequently withdrew approval of the 2004 Plan in 2012

. To meet its extreme area

SIP obligations, the District has now prepared the 2013 Plan , demonstrating a ttainment

of the 1

- hour ozone standard by 2017

.

S ince development of the 2004 Plan, ARB and the District have adopted comprehensive

new control strategies focused on meet ing the more stringent 8

- hour ozone standard

. These strategies will result in significant reductions of ozone forming precursors and

establish the basis for bringing the Valley into attainment for the 1

- hour ozone standard

. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are

expected to decrease 49 and 20 percent, respectively, between 2007 , the base year of

the 2013 Plan, and 2017 as a resul t of ARB and District measures designed to meet the

8

- hour ozone standard

.

The 2013 Plan addresses all applicable Clean Air Act (CAA) requirements for an

extreme nonattainment area :

• S ummer season emission inventory;

• R ea s o n ab ly a v a il ab le c on t r o l m e a s u r e s ( R A C M ) d emonstration for existing sources ;

• A ttainment demonstration for 2017 ;

• R ate

- of

- progress demonstration;

• C on ti n g en cy me a s u r e s;

• Provisions for c l e a n f ue ls/ t e c hno l o g i e s f or bo il e r s; and

,

• V e h icle M il e s T r a v e l e d ( V M T ) o f f s e t d e m o n st r a ti o n

.

1I I

. N A T URE OF THE OZONE PROBLEM IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

T h is c ha p t e r p r o v i de s a brief o v e r v i e w o f ozone health impacts, the geo gr aph y and

m e t eo r o l o g y whi ch contribute to ozone formation, and a summary of ozone air quality

progress

.

A

. O zone Health Effects

Ozone is a highly reactive gaseous pollutant formed by the photochemical reaction o f

VOCs with NOx and other reactive species

. Exposure to levels of ozone above the

standard can have deleterious effects on human health and typically include symptoms

such as coughing, chest tightness, shortness of breath, and th e worsening of asthma.

U.S. EPA originally established a 1

- hour ozone standard in 1979, setting the level at

120 parts per billion (ppb). In 1997, U.S. EPA promulgated a more health protective

8

- hour ozone standard, and subsequently revoked the 1

- hour ozone standard in 2005.

B

. Geography and Population

T h e S a n J oa q u in V a ll e y A ir Ba sin includes Sa n J oa q u i n

, S t a n isl au s, M e r c ed

, M a d e r a,

F r e s no

, K i n g s, T u l a r e

, an d W e s t e r n Ke r n C ou n ti e s ( Fi g u r e 1 ) and is approximately

25

, 0 0 0 s q ua r e m il e s or about 1 6 pe r c e n t o f t he a r e a o f C a l i f o r n i a

. I t is a c on t i nu o u s v a ll e y

app r o x i m a t e l y 25 0 m il e s l ong an d a v e r a g i n g 8 0 m il e s w i de

. M oun t a i n s b o u n d t h e a r e a o n

t h e w e s t ( C oa st a l Mo un t a in r an g e )

, t h e ea s t ( S i e rr a N e v ad a ra n g e )

, a n d t h e s o u th

( T eha c hap i M oun t a i n s )

.

T h e m a j o r u rb an c en t e r s in the San Joaquin Valley a r e B a k e r s f i e l d

, F r e s no

, M ode s t o

,

a n d S t o c k t o n

. E missions associated with large urban areas, coupled with t h e V a ll e y ’s

g eo gr aph y an d m e t e o r o l o g y

, are conducive to the f o r m a t i o n a n d r e t en t i o n o f h i g h l e v e ls

o f ozone. The surrounding mountain ranges an d st a g nan t w ea t her pa t t e r n s typically

p r e v en t t h e d i s pe r s a l o f air po ll u t a n ts. During the summer when low winds, lack of

precipitation, and h igh temperatures are prevalent elevated ozone levels are common.

T he current population of the San Joaquin Va ll e y is four m illi o n

. Based on the latest

data from the Calif ornia Department of Finance , t he region’s population is expected to

increase to 4.4 m illi o n b y 201 7

. This anticipated increase in Valley residents adds to

t h e c o m p l e x ity o f t h e ozone p r ob l e m

. P o p u l a ti o n growth l e a d s to a n i n c r ea se in

a u t o m ob ile an d t r u ck t r a v e l as well as an increase in the use of c on s u m e r p r odu c ts.

T o t a l vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for example, is e x pe c t e d to i n c r ea se a b out

21 percent b e t w ee n 20 1 0 an d 2 0 2 0.

2Figure 1

. Sa n J o a qu i n Va l l e y

C

. Air Quality Progress

The San Joaquin Valley has one of the most challenging ozone problems in the nation.

In t h e e a r ly 1990 s, much of the Valley exceeded the 1

- hour ozone standard, and

exceedances of the standard occurred somewhere in the Valley 5 0 d a y s ea ch s u m m e r

. However, ozone air quality has improved throughout the region, with the basinwide

design value declining by 21 percent between 1995 and 2012, and the number of

exceedance days declining by more than 90 percent.

Figure 2 illustrates the trend in the basinwide design value , the statistic used to

determine compliance with the standard . The annual values represent four different

monitoring sites, as the highest design value in the Valley has occurred at different

locations from year to year. Over the last 18 years, the high site has alternated

between the central Valley (Clovis or Parlier or Fresno

- Drummand ), and the southern

Valley (Edison or Arvin

- Bear Mountain).

3E x c ee d an c e s a r e now l imited t o a s m a ll e r w i ndo w of ti m e t h a n in the past. In the

1990s, e xceedance days typically o cc u rred between A p r il and Oc t obe r

. I n r e c en t y ea r s,

the few remaining da y s o v e r t h e 1

- h our ozone st a nda r d o cc u r predominantly du r i n g t h e

m o n t h s o f J u n e to Se p t e m be r

.

Figure 3 also illustrates the progress that has been made in reducing the spatial extent of

exceedance days in the Valley. In 1993

- 1995, portions of the central and southern Valley

experienced 15 to 25 exceedance days. As of 2010

- 2012, only a few areas in the central

and southern Valley recorded exceedance days, and only two sites, Fresno

- Drummond

and Cl ovis

, had design values above the standard. In 2013, no site in the Valley recorded

an exceedance of the 1

- hour ozone standard

. As a result, the Clovis site now meets the

standard. With just one exceedance beyond the three allowed under the form of the

standard, the Fresno

- Drummond site is now the only remaining site violating the standard.

In 2010, the Arvin

- Bear Mountain monitoring site was relocated to the nearby Di Giorgio

Elementary School as ARB w as unable to renew the lease at this location

. Co ncentrations at the Di Giorgio Elementary School during monitoring site comparison

work conducted in 2010 were lower than those measured at Arvin

- Bear Mountain

.

To further evaluate the variability in concentrations in the Arvin region, the District

conducted a saturation monitoring study during the summer of 2013

. The results of this

study will provide the information necessary for ARB, the District, and U.S. EPA to

assess approaches for evaluating the near

- term attainment status related to the 1

- ho ur

ozone standard, as well as determine long er

- term needs for the 8

- hour ozone standard

.

0.110 0.120 0.130 0.140 0.150 0.160 0.1701995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Highest Design Value for the Year (ppm) Figure 2. Design Value Trend for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

Basinwide Design Value Level of Standard *2013 value is preliminary

4Figure 3

. Reductions in Exceedance Days in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (1993

- 1995 vs

. 20 1 0

- 2012)

5I I I

. CL E A N A IR A CT R E QUIR E M E NTS

T h e C AA r equi r e s Cali f o r ni a t o s u b m i t t h e f oll o w i n g do c u m en t a t io n s pe c i f i c t o t h e

San Joaquin V all e y t o add r e ss t h e 1

- hou r ozone standard :

• Base year emission inventories and future year forecasts for manmade sources

of air pollution in the nonattainment area ;

• R ea s o n ab ly a v a il ab le c on t r o l m e a s u r e s ( R A C M ) demonstration for existing sources ;

• A ttainment demonstration ;

• R ate

- of

- progress demonstration;

• C on ti n g en cy me a s u r e s;

• Provisions for c l e a n f ue ls/ t e c hno l o g i e s f or bo il e r s; and

,

• V M T o f f s e t d e m o n st r a ti o n

.

A. E mi s s ion In ve n t o r y

California’s emission inventory is an estimate of the amounts and types of pollutants

emitted over a given time period from industrial and com mercial facilities, mobile

sources, and area

- wide sources, including emissions from the application of paint and

consumer products

. The dev elopment and maintenance of California’s emission

inventory is a multi

- agency effort involving ARB, 35 local air pollution control and a ir

quality management districts, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), councils of

governments (COGs), and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)

. The

emission inventory compiled by ARB staff reflects the best information available a bout

the emission rate and activity for each category of emission sources and includes the

projected growth in emissions into the future.

The 2013 Plan uses the latest estimates of VOC and NOx emissions for sta tionary,

area

- wide, and on

- road/ off

- road mobile sources. S I Ps d e m on s t r a t in g a tt ai n m en t o f t h e

1

- hou r ozone s t anda r d m u st c on t ai n ba s e

- y e a r emission inventories and f u t u re y ea r

forecasts f o r NO x an d V OC

. A RB a n d Dist r ict st a ff w o r k e d j o i n tly to de v e l o p a

c o m p r e h en si v e e m issi on i n v en t o r y f o r t h e 2 0 1 3 Plan

.

T h e V a ll e y ’s a tt a i n m e n t c ha ll e n g e s u n de r t h e 1

- h ou r ozone st an d a r d o c c u r in t h e

s u m m e r m o n t h s

. F o r t h is r ea s on

, t h e 2013 P l a n f o c u s e s o n s u m m e r a v e r a g e da ily

e m issi o n i n v en t o r i e s, w ith e m issi on s p r e s e n t e d in t o n s p e r day ( t pd )

. Based on the

most updated forecasting methodology, including the use of category

- specific growth

profiles, NOx e m issi on s are expected to de c r ea s e by 49 percent and VOC emissions by

20 percent between 2007, the base year for the 2013 Plan, and 2017

.

B

. R eas on a bly A v a il a ble Con t rol M eas u r e A n a l y s is and Control Strategy

As s pe c i f ie d i n t h e CAA

, S I Ps s hal l p r o v i d e f o r t h e i m pl e m en t a t io n o f al l R A C M a s

e x p e di t iou sl y a s p r a c t i c able

.

6T h e Dist r ict ha s a d op t e d hundreds of ne w r u l e s a n d r u le a m en d m e n ts over the last two

decades

. Many of these rules were adopted since the 2004 Plan and are included in

more recent air quality planning to address the 8

- hour standard. Consistent with its

r e g u l a t o r y au t h o r ity , the District has adopted rules focused on controlling emissions from

stationary and area sources, such as boilers, steam generators, process heaters, flares,

open burning, architectural coatings, commercial charbroiling, and confined animal

facilities

. ARB has adopted stringent regulations to reduce emissions from heavy

- duty

trucks, off

- road equipment, and other mobile sources. Collectively, t hese control

measures adopted by the District and ARB will continue to provide benefits by reducing

ozone

- forming precursor emissions through 2017 and beyond

.

Gi v e n t h e s i g n i f ic a n t e m issi o n re d u cti on s n ee d e d f or a tt a i n m e n t in C a l i f o r n i a

, A RB h a s

a d o p t e d t h e m o st st r i n g en t c on t r o l m ea s u r es na ti o n w i d e f o r on

- r o a d an d o f f

- r o a d m ob ile

s o u r c e s a n d t h e f ue ls t h a t po w e r t h e m

. T h e se m e a s u r e s , all of which are considered

RACM, p r o v i d e a si g n i f ic a n t am ou n t o f e m issi o n r e d u cti o n s ne e de d f o r t he Va ll e y to

a t t a in t h e 1

- h ou r ozone s t a n da r d

.

T h e District is also r e q u i r e d to i m p l e m en t r ea s o nab l y a v a il ab le c on t r o l t e c h no l o g y

( R A C T ) f o r s o u r c e s t ha t a r e s ub j e ct t o c o n t r ol t e c hn i q ue s g u i d e li ne s iss u e d b y U.S. EP A

a n d f o r m a j o r s ou r c e s o f V OCs an d N O x

. U.S. EP A ha s a pp ro v ed Dist r ict r u l e s

c o n t a i n e d in t h e 2 0 0 9 R A CT S I P a n d has concurred that Dist r i ct r u l e s a r e a t l ea st a s

st r i n g en t a s R A C T l e v e ls. The District has included an updated RACT demonstration for

the 2013 Plan.

The District is evaluating potential control measure opportunities to continue ozone air

quality progress. Additional information and studies regarding current emission

inventories, the effectiveness of the current controls

, and fut ure technologies are all

efforts the District is pursuing. The District identified commitments for further study

measures in the 2012 PM2.5 Plan and continued that c ommitment in the 2013 Plan.

These further study measures include: open burning, prescribed burning, flares,

architectural coatings, storage of organic liquids, transfer of organic solids, bakery

ovens, lawn care equipment, asphalt and concrete operations a nd ongoing study and

research.

C. Demonstrating Attainment

The CAA requires the use of air quality modeling to relate ozone levels to emissions in a

region and simulate future air quality based on changes in emissions. Modeling uses

emission inventories, with measurements of meteorology and air quality, to establish

this relationship. The performance of the model is assessed by comparing the modeled

or predicted ozone value to the monitored or observed ozone level in a base year

. T h is m o de li n g is u s e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e ben e f its o f c on t r o lli n g d i f f e re n t ozone p r e c u r s o r

p o ll u t a n ts an d the m o st e x ped iti ou s a tt a i n m en t da t e

.

71

. Modeling Approach and Results

Consistent with U.S. EPA guidelines, ARB modeled air quality to predict future 1

- hour

ozone concentrations at each monitoring site in the Valley. The modeling results meet

the performance criteria established by U.S. EPA. The modeling used a base year of

2007, and a future year of 2017. The 2017 attainment year is consistent with the

attainment t imeframe specified in the CAA , which allows up to five years to attain after a

finding of nonattainment

.

F o ll o w i n g U. S

. EP A g u i dan c e f o r t h e 8

- hou r ozone st anda rd

, A RB u s e d R e l a ti v e

R e s pon se F a ct o r s ( RRFs ) to de m on st r a te a t t a i n m e n t o f t h e 1

- h o u r ozone st a n da r d

. The RRFs are calculated as the ratio of future

- year and base

- year ozone concentrations

for each site

. The RRF is then multiplied by a site

- specific design value to estim ate the

future

- year design value

. T h e t ra d iti o n a l R RF

- ba s e d a pp ro a ch is to m u lti p ly ea ch sit e ’s

design value b y a n a v er a g e RRF to de t e r m i n e t h e f u t u r e design value f o r d e m on st r a ti n g

a t t a i n m en t

.

However, b ecause h i g he r ozone v a l ue s ( greater than 10 0 p p b ) a r e m o r e r e s p o n si v e to

e m iss i o n c o n t r o ls t ha n l o w e r v a l ue s

, a m od i f i e d a p p r oa c h was de v e l op e d t o c on st r u ct

RRF’s f o r b a nd s o f c on c e n t r a ti o n s a n d t o app ly t h is i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e d e t e r m i na ti o n o f

f u t u r e design values

. T h e se “ band

- RRFs” r ep r e s en t t h e m ode l’s r e s pon s e to si m il a r

c on c e n t r a t i o n s a v e r a g e d o v er d iff e r e n t m e t eo r o l o g ic a l an d e m issi o n c o nd iti o n s

. T h e

f u t u r e design values c a l c u l a t e d ba s e d on t h e ba n d

- RRFs a r e c o m pa r e d w ith t h e 1

- h o u r

ozone st anda r d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e a t t a i n m e n t st a t u s f o r e a ch m o n it o r

. T h e b e n c h m a r k f o r

a tt a i n m e n t is a design value t h a t i s e q ua l to o r l e ss t ha n 1 2 4 p pb.

T h is m o de li n g s ho w s t ha t a ll sit e s in t h e Va ll e y will a tt a in t h e 1

- h ou r ozone s t an d a r d by

20 1 7 ba s e d o n i m p l em en t a ti o n o f t h e on g o i n g c on t r o l p r o gr a m ( T ab l e 1 ) including the

Arvin

- Bear Mountain site

. T h e h i g he s t p r ed ict e d f u t u r e si t e

, E d is on

, is 4 .7 p p b b e l o w t h e

st a nda r d

, a n d o t h e r sit e s a r e 20

. 3 t o 4 1 .6 pp b be l o w t h e st an da r d

. T he re f o r e

, t h e a ir

q ua lity si m u l a ti ons p r ed ict t ha t t h e entire V a ll e y attain s t he st an d a r d by 2017.

8T a b le 1

. B ase Y e ar a n d F u t u r e Y e ar 1

- Ho u r Ozone D e sign Val u es (ppb)

Mo n i t o ri n g S t a ti o n D V ( 2 0 0 5

- 2 00 7 ) D V ( 2 0 1 7 )

E d is o n 1 35 1 1 9

. 3

F r e s n o

- 1 st 1 30 1 0 3

. 7

A r v i n

- B e ar M o un tain 1 31 1 0 7

. 4

Cl ov is 1 25 1 0 4

. 1

F r e s n o

- S ierr a 1 24 98 .8

P arlier 1 21 97 .4

S e qu o ia

- Kings 1 18 1 0 2

. 4

Mo d e s t o 1 09 95 .9

Bak e rsfield

- Cal ifornia 1 17 98

F r e s n o

- D r umm o nd 1 10 93

S e qu o ia N atl P a r k 1 13 98 .5

H a n f o r d 1 10 92 .6

Oil d al e 1 12 95 .2

Bak e rsfield

- G o l d e n 1 08 96 .3

V isalia 1 12 94 .5

T u rl o ck 1 04 91 .8

S t o c k t o n 1 01 86 .3

Sh aft e r

- Wal k er 1 05 87 .7

M er c e d 1 02 85 .4

M ari c o p a 1 00 83 .5

M a d e ra 95 82 .4

2

. Weight of Evidence

U. S

. E P A m ode li n g g u i dan c e r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e m o d e l e d a t t a i n m e n t d e m on s t r a ti o n be

a cc o m p a n i e d b y a w e i g h t o f e v i den c e a na l y sis to p r o v i d e a s e t o f c o m p l e m e n t a r y

ana l y s e s

. E x a m i n i n g a n a ir q ua lity p r ob l e m i n a v a r i e ty o f w a y s p r o v i de s a m o r e

i n f o rm e d ba sis f o r t h e a tt a i n m e n t st r a t e g y a s w e ll a s a be t t e r u n de r s t and i n g o f t he

o v e r a ll p r ob l e m a n d t h e l e v e l an d m ix o f e m i s si on s c o n t r o ls n ee d e d f o r a t t a i n m e n t.

Appendix G of the District ’s 2013 Plan p r o v i de s t h e full w e i g h t o f e v i den ce a n a l y sis

c on d u ct e d b y A RB st a f f

. F o ll o w i n g U. S

. EP A g u i dan c e

, t h is i n cl u de s a ss e s s m e n t o f

t r end s in a ir q ua lity a n d e m issi on s, s ou r c e

- re c ep t o r m o de ls a n d o t h e r d i a g no stic

ana l y s e s, a d d iti o n a l m ode li n g e v a l ua ti o n s, a n d de sc r i p t i o n o f a c on c ep t u a l m o d e l o f

ozone in t h e Va ll e y

.

D

. R a t e of P rogr e s s D e mon s t r a t ion

T h e p u r po se o f t h e ra t e

- o f

- p r o gr e ss ( RO P ) demonstration is t o en s u r e t h a t

n on a tt a i nm en t a r ea s m a k e st e ad y p r o gr e ss reducing emissions t o w a r d t he ir a t t a i n m e n t

g oa ls. The 2013 Plan must show an a v e r ag e o f three percent annua l r edu c t ion s o f V O C

9o r N O x i n m ile s t on e y e a rs ( e v e ry t h r e e y e a rs) a f t e r t h e ba s elin e y ea r un t i l t h e a tt ain m en t

y ea r

. Since t h e ba s e l in e y ea r f o r t hi s P la n is 2 0 07 ; t he m ile s t on e y ea rs a re 2 0 1 0

, 2013

, 2016

, an d 2 0 1 7 , the attainment year

. T h e R O P d e m on s t r a t io n i n t h e Di s t r i c t 2013 P la n

s h o w s t ha t V O C an d N O x e m i ss io n r edu c t ion s a re m o re t ha n s u f f i c ien t t o m ee t t h e

r equi r e d R O P i n al l m ile s t on e y ea rs

.

Figure 6 shows the percentage reductions in creditable VOC and NOx along with the

required percent reduction targets relative to 2007

. The combined VOC and NOx

percent reductions far exceed the required ROP percent change targets

.

Figure 6

. Creditable Emissions Reductions Relative to ROP Targets

E

. Con t ing e n c y M eas ur e s

Con t in g en c y m ea s u r e s a re c o mm i t m en t s f o r e x t ra m ea s u r e s t o r edu ce e m i ss ion s t ha t

go in t o e f f e ct w i t hou t f u r t he r r egula t o r y a c t ion

. I n a n a tt ai n m en t plan

, t h e m ea s u r e s

m u st be e x t ra i n t h e s en se t ha t t h e r edu c t ion s a r e no t a cc oun t e d f o r i n the R O P o r i n t h e

a tt ai n m ent d e m on s t r a t ion

. R O P c o n t ingen c y reductions a re u s e d i f t h e pla n ne d

e m i ss ion s c on t r ol s f ai l t o r ea ch t h e e m i ss ion s t a r ge t s s pe c i f ie d i n t h e a tt ai n m en t pla n f o r

R O P

. T he a tt ai n m en t year c on t ingen c y reductions a re r equi r e d i f a r egi o n f ail s t o a tt ai n

a f ede r a l s t anda rd b y t he a tt ai n m en t da t e and must be implemented automatically

.

The 2013 Plan meets the required ROP and attainment contingenc y requirements due

to emission reductions from already adopted regulations and incentive programs. T h e

Di s t r i ct adop t e d R u l e 96 1 0 (S t a t e I m p le m en t a t io n P la n C r edi t f o r E m i ss ion Redu c t i o n s

G ene r a t e d t h r oug h I n c e n t i ve Pr og r a m s) t o p r o v id e t h e Di s t r i ct w i t h a m e c hani s m t o

10c la i m cr edi t f o r S I P

- cr edi t abl e in c en t i v e

- ba s e d e m i ss io n r edu c t i o ns a c hi e v e d i n t h e

San Joaquin V all e y

.

T h e R O P d e m on s t r a t i o n i n t h e Di s t r i c t 2013 P la n s h o w s t ha t t h e San Joaquin Valley

m ee t s t he R O P m ile s t on e y e a r c on t ingen c y r e q ui r e m en t

. T h e r equi r e d three percent

c on t i ng en cy w a s s e c u r e d b y t h e f i rst m ile s t on e y ea r ( 2010 ) a n d c a rr ie d t h r o u g h t o t h e

a tt ai n m en t y ea r ( 2017 ). A l s o

, based on r e du c t ion s al r ea d y a v a il a bl e t h r o ug h adop t e d

r e gula t i on s , and 3

. 5 t p d o f N O x e m i ss io n r edu c t ions from in c e n t i v e p r og r a m s

, the 2013

P la n s a t i s f ie s t he a tt ai n m en t y ea r c on t in g en cy requirement

.

F

. Clean Fuels and Clean Technologies for Boilers

The C AA di r e c t s e x t r e m e nona tt ai n m en t a r ea s t o r equi re ea c h n e w

, m od i f ied

, or e x i s t in g

ele c t r i c u t i l i t y

, i ndu s t r ial

, o r c o m m e rc ia l boile r t ha t e m i t s m o re t ha n 2 5 t on s pe r y ear o f

N O x t o u se na t u r a l g a s, m e t hanol

, o r e t han o l ( o r c o m pa r abl y l o w p o l lu t in g f uel ) a s i t s

p r i m a ry f ue l; o r u se ad v an c e d c on t r o l t e c hnol o g y , s u ch a s c a t al y t i c c on t r o l t e c hnolo g y o r

o t he r c o m pa r abl y e f f e c t i v e c on t r o l m e t hod s, f or r edu c t io n o f N O x e m i ss i on s.

Di s t r i ct Rule s 430 6 a n d 435 2 a d d r e ss N O x e m i ss ion s li m i t s f o r t h e boi l e rs i n t hi s

c a t ego r y

. T he se boile rs g ene r a l l y u se na t u r a l ga s a n d t h e r e f o re s a t i s f y t h e f i r s t

r e qui r e m en t o f this section in the CAA. Liqu i d

- f ue l f i r e d boi l e rs a re al so a dd r e ss e d b y

t h e se r ule s a n d t h e app l i c ab l e N O x e m i ss io n li m i t s s a t i s f y t h e s e c on d r equi r e m en t o f

this section in the C AA

. S olid

- f ue l f i r ed boile rs a re a dd r e ss e d b y Ru l e 435 2 a n d t h e

a p pli c a b l e N O x e m i ss ion s l i m i t s a t i s f ie s t he s e c on d r eq u i r e m en t a s w e ll

. T he r e f o r e

, t h e

Di s t r i ct currently c o m plie s w i t h the CAA requirement for clean fuels and technologies for

boilers

.

G

. V M T O ff se t D e mon s t r a t ion

The CAA requires areas classified as severe or extreme nonattai nment of the ozone

standard to submit a v ehicle m iles t raveled offset demonstration. The San Joaquin

Valley Air Basin is currently designated as e xtreme and is therefore subject to this

requirement . For areas classified as extreme, Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the CAA requires

that SIPs in c l ude a demonstration that “identifies specific enforceable transportat i on

control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any growth in emissions

from growth in such area....”

The 2013 Plan includes a VMT offset demonstration for both the 1

- h our and 8

- h our

ozone standards with analysis provided by ARB

. This demonstration was prepared

pursuant to the requirements of the CAA and is consistent with August 2012 U.S. EPA

guidance entitled “Implementing Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A): Transportation

Control Measures and Transportation Control Strategies to Offset Growth in Emissions

Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled.” The 2013 Plan demonstrates that the VMT

offset demon stration is satisfied for the San Joaquin Valley for both the 1

- hour and

8

- hour ozone standards , and is described further in Appendix D of the District 2013

Plan

.

11I V

. E N V IRON M E N T A L I M P A CTS

T o m ee t t h e r equi r e m en t s o f t h e Cali f o r ni a E n v i r o n m en t a l Q uali t y Act ( C E Q A), t h e

Di s t r i ct p r epa r e d a Notice of Exemption because the Initial Study showed there is no

substantial evidence, in light of the whole record, that the 2013 Plan may have a

signifi cant effect on the environment. The Final N otice of Exemption and approval of

the 2013 Plan occurred at a public meeting held on September 19, 2013.

V

. S T A FF R E CO M M E N D A T ION

A RB st a ff r e c om m e nd s t ha t t h e B o a r d:

1

. Approve t h e S a n J oa q u in Va ll e y 20 1 3 P l an

, i n cl ud i n g t h e e m issi o n i n v en t o r y

, local control strategy, a tt a i n m e n t d e m o n st r a ti o n

, ra te o f pr o gr e ss

de m on st r a t i on

, c on ti n g en cy m ea s u r e s, R A C T /R A C M de m on st ra ti on

, a n d V M T

o ffs e t d em on st r a t i on s

, a s r e v isi on s to t h e C a l i f o r n ia S I P

.

2

. Di r e ct t h e E x e c u ti v e Of f ic e r t o s ub m it t h e S a n J oa q u in V a ll e y 201 3 Plan t o

U. S

. EP A f o r a pp r o v a l.

12

# A p p en d i x A

D i s t r i c t S u b mi tt al Le t t er and

Go v ern i ng B oard R e so l u t i on

13

# A p p en d i x B

L i nk t o D i s t r i ct 20 1 3 1

- H our Ozone Pl an

h tt p : / /ww w

. v a ll e y a i r

. o rg / A i r

_ Q ua lit y _P l an s/ Ozone _P l an s

. h t m

14