An Aging World: 2008

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration 

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU 

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

National Institutes of Health

NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING

Issued June 2009

P95/09-1

By 

Kevin Kinsella

and 

Wan He

International Population Reports
This report was prepared by Kevin Kinsella and Wan He under 

the general direction of Peter O. Way, Chief, International Programs 

Center, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Research for and 

production of this report were supported under an interagency 

agreement with the Behavioral and Social Research Program, 

National Institute on Aging, Agreement No. Y1-AG-7617-02.

For their review of and substantive suggestions regarding this 

report, the authors are grateful to Richard V. Burkhauser, College 

of Human Ecology, Cornell University; Emily Grundy, Centre for 

Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; 

Marjorie Hanson, Data Integration Division, U.S. Census Bureau; 

Rebecca Hoop and Kimball T. Jonas, Demographic Statistical 

Methods Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Enrique J. Lamas, Chief, 

Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Richard M. Suzman, 

Director, Behavioral and Social Research Program, National Institute 

on Aging; and Peter O. Way, Chief, International Programs Center, 

Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. The authors are especially grateful to Frank B. Hobbs, Population Division, U.S. Census 

Bureau, for his thorough review and insightful comments.

Within the Census Bureau’s Population Division, Mitali Sen and 

Robert M. Leddy, Jr. provided mapping assistance for the report. 

Mitali Sen also contributed analysis and text concerning the pension 

system in India and Internet use among older people. Mary Beth 

Kennedy was instrumental in the completion of myriad tasks involving data verification, table and graph production, and general report 

preparation. The authors also thank Census Bureau summer intern 

Nathaniel Lewis, who assisted with various aspects of the report. 

Janet Sweeney and Jamie Stark of the Census Bureau’s 

Administrative and Customer Services Division, Francis Grailand 

Hall, Chief, provided publication and printing management, graphics design and composition, and editorial review for print and electronic media. General direction and production management were 

provided by Claudette E. Bennett, Assistant Division Chief, and 

Wanda Cevis, Chief, Publications Services Branch.

Thanks also are due to Peter D. Johnson, Population Division, 

U.S. Census Bureau, who oversees the International Data Base; 

and to Lorraine Wright, U.S. Census Bureau Library, International 

Collection, who handled the acquisition of a multitude of source 

materials used in this report. 

Acknowledgments
U.S. Department of Commerce

Gary Locke,

Secretary

Vacant,

Deputy Secretary

Economics and Statistics Administration

Vacant, 

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Thomas L. Mesenbourg, 

Acting Director

P95/09-1

An Aging World: 2008 Issued June 2009
Suggested Citation

Kinsella, Kevin and Wan He

 U.S. Census Bureau, 

International Population Reports, 

P95/09-1, An Aging World: 2008, 

U.S. Government Printing Office, 

Washington, DC,

2009.

Economics and Statistics

Administration

Vacant,

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Thomas L. Mesenbourg,

Acting Director

Thomas L. Mesenbourg,

Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer

Howard Hogan,

Associate Director for Demographic Programs

Enrique J. Lamas,

Chief, Population Division

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll-free 866-512-1800; DC area 202-512-1800

Fax: 202-512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION
iii An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

1. True or false? The world’s children under age 5 outnumber 

people aged 65 and over.

2. The world’s older population 

(65 and over) is increasing 

by approximately how many 

people each month in 2008?

a. 75,000 

b. 350,000

c. 600,000

d. 870,000

3. Which of the world’s developing regions has the highest 

percentage of older people?

a. Africa

b. Latin America

c. The Caribbean

d. Asia

4. China has the world’s largest 

total population (more than 

1.3 billion). Which country 

has the world’s largest older 

population?

a. China

b. Germany

c. Russia

d. India

5. True or false? More than half 

of the world’s older people live 

in the industrialized nations of 

Europe, North America, Japan, 

and Australia.

6. Which country has the world’s 

highest percentage of older 

people in 2008?

a. Sweden

b. Japan

c. Spain

d. Italy

7. True or false? Current demographic projections suggest that 

35 percent of all people in the 

United States will be at least 65 

years of age by the year 2050.

8. True or false? The number of 

the world’s “oldest old” (people 

80 and over) is growing more 

rapidly than the older (65 and 

over) population as a whole.

9. Japan has the highest life 

expectancy among the major 

countries of the world. How 

many years can a Japanese 

baby born in 2008 expect to 

live, on average?

a. 70 years

b. 75 years

c. 82 years

d. 90 years

10. True or false? Today, average life expectancy at birth 

is less than 45 years in some 

countries.

11. What are the leading killers 

of older people in Europe and 

North America?

a. Cancers

b. Circulatory diseases

c. Respiratory diseases

d. Accidents

12. True or false? The percentage 

of older people in rural areas 

is generally lower than in large 

cities. 

13. There are more older widows 

than widowers in virtually all 

countries because:

a. Women live longer than 

men.

b. Women typically 

marry men older than 

themselves.

c. Men are more likely to 

remarry after divorce or 

the death of a spouse.

d. All of the above.

14. True or false? Sex ratios at older 

ages (i.e., the number of older 

men per 100 older women) usually are 90 or greater.

15. In developed countries, recent 

increases in labor force participation rates of older workers 

are due to changing work patterns of:

a. Men

b. Women

c. Men and women

16. What proportion of the world’s 

countries have a public old-age 

security program?

a. All

b. Three-fourths

c. One-half

d. One-fourth

17. True or false? In most countries, international migration 

has little effect on the overall 

population age structure.

18. In which country are older 

people least likely to live alone?

a. The Philippines

b. Hungary

c. Canada

d. Denmark

19. True or false? In developing 

countries, older men are more 

likely than older women to be 

illiterate.

20. True or false? In any country, 

it is almost impossible to have 

population aging and a decline 

in total population size at the 

same time.

20 Questions About Global Aging

See what you know about worldwide population aging in the early twenty-first century. 

Answers appear on next page.
iv An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

1. True. Although the world’s 

population is aging, children 

still outnumber older people as 

of 2008. Projections indicate, 

however, that in fewer than 10 

years, older people will outnumber children for the first 

time in history.

2. d. The estimated change in the 

total size of the world=s older 

population between July 2007 

and July 2008 was more than 

10.4 million people, an average 

of 870,000 each month.

3. c. The Caribbean, with 7.8 percent of all people aged 65 and 

over in 2008. Corresponding 

figures for other regions are 

Latin America, 6.4 percent; Asia 

(excluding Japan), 6.2 percent; 

and Africa, 3.3 percent.

4. a. China also has the largest 

older population, numbering 

106 million in 2008.

5. False. Although industrialized 

nations have higher percentages of older people than do 

most developing countries, 62 

percent of all people aged 65 

and over now live in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, 

Latin America, the Caribbean, 

and Oceania.

6. b. Japan, with 22 percent of its 

population aged 65 or over, has 

recently supplanted Italy as the 

world’s oldest major country.

7. False. Although the United 

States will age rapidly when 

the Baby Boomers (people born 

between 1946 and 1964) begin 

to reach age 65 after the year 

2010, the percentage of the 

population aged 65 and over in 

the year 2050 is projected to be 

20 percent (compared with 12 

percent today).

8. True. The oldest old are the 

fastest-growing component 

of many national populations. 

The world’s growth rate for the 

80-and-over population from 

2007 to 2008 was 4.3 percent, 

while that of the world=s older 

(65 and over) population as a 

whole was 2.1 percent (compared with 1.2 percent for the 

total [all ages] population).

9. c. 82 years, up from about 52 in 

1947.

10. True. In some African countries 

(e.g., Malawi, South Africa, 

Zambia, and Zimbabwe) where 

the HIV/AIDS epidemic is particularly devastating, average 

life expectancy at birth is less 

than 45 years.

11. b. Circulatory diseases (especially heart disease and stroke) 

typically are the leading cause 

of death as reported by the 

World Health Organization. In 

the United States in 2004, heart 

disease was the leading cause 

of death in the 65-and-over age 

group, accounting for 30 percent 

of all deaths. This percentage, 

however, has declined in recent 

decades (it was 44 percent in the 

United States in 1980).

12. False. Rural-to-urban migration 

tends to lower the percentage 

of younger adults in rural areas 

and correspondingly raise the 

percentage of older residents. 

13. d. All of the above.

14. False. Sex ratios at older ages are 

90 or above in about 20 percent 

of the world’s countries/areas. 

Sex ratios at older ages are 80 or 

below in a majority of countries/

areas and 50 or below in parts of 

the former Soviet Union.

15. c. From the late 1960s until the 

1990s, labor force participation 

rates of older men in most developed countries were declining, 

whereas those for women were 

often increasing. More recently, 

activity rates for men also have 

begun to increase.

16. b. As of 2004, 167 countries/

areas of the world (74 percent) 

reported having some form 

of an old age/disability/survivors program. In many cases, 

program coverage is limited to 

certain occupational subgroups.

17. True. International migration 

does not play a major role 

in the aging process of most 

countries, but it can be important in small populations that 

have experienced a combination 

of emigration of working-aged 

adults, immigration of older 

retirees from other countries, 

and/or return migration of former emigrants.

18. a. The Philippines. The percentage of older people living alone 

in developing countries is usually 

much lower than that in developed countries; levels in the latter 

may exceed 40 percent.

19. False. Older women are less 

likely to be literate. For example, data from China’s 2000 

census revealed that 26 percent 

of older women could read and 

write, compared with 66 percent of older men.

20. False. Total population size in at 

least 11 countries is projected to 

decline from today’s levels by at 

least 1 million people by 2050; 

in some countries (e.g., Japan, 

Russia, and the Ukraine) the 

decline has already begun. All of 

these nations are aging, and the 

combination of population aging 

and population decline is historically unprecedented.

Answers
20 Questions About Global Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

Chapter 1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Chapter 2. Global Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Older People to Soon Outnumber Young Children . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

World’s Older Population Increasing 870,000 Each Month . . . . . . 7

Older Population Growing Fastest in Developing Countries . . . . . 10

Europe Still the "Oldest" World Region, Sub-Saharan Africa 

 the "Youngest" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Japan Now the World’s "Oldest" Major Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Singapore’s Older Population to More Than Triple by 2040 . . . . . 13

Parts of Asia Aging the Fastest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

An Aging Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Median Age to Rise in All Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Chapter 3. The Dynamics of Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Legacy of Fertility Decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Aging and Population Decline: 

 An Unprecedented Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Is Below-Replacement Fertility Here to Stay? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Older Populations Themselves Often Are Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Researchers Eye Increase in Centenarians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Older People More Likely Than Others to Live in Rural Areas . . . 29

No Clear Trend Toward Disproportionate Aging 

 of Large Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Chapter 4. Life Expectancy and Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Life Expectancy at Birth Exceeds 80 Years in 11 Countries . . . . . 33

Twentieth Century Life Expectancy Doubled in Some 

 Developed Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Rising Life Expectancy at Birth Is Not Universal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Highest Recorded Average Life Expectancy 

 Continues to Rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Female Advantage in Life Expectancy at Birth

 Nearly Universal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Female Mortality Advantage Persists in Older Age . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Old-Age Mortality Rates Declining Over Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Cardiovascular Disease the Preeminent Cause of Death

 Among Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Persistent Concern About Lung Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Chapter 5. Health and Disability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Epidemiological Transition Shifts the Survival Curve . . . . . . . . . . 49

Developing-Country Transition Most Apparent

 in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Is a Longer Life a Better Life? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Crossnational Assessment of Health Expectancy

 Remains Elusive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Prevalence of Chronic Conditions Is Increasing While

 Disability Is Decreasing in Developed Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Table of Contents
Female Advantage in Life Expectancy Partially Offset

 by Disability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Disability Prevalence Is Likely to Increase in 

 Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Burden of Noncommunicable Disease Is Growing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Obesity May Threaten Improvements in Life Expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Early-Life Conditions Affect Adult Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Does Population Aging Impact Health System Solvency? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Chapter 6. Gender Balance, Marital Status, and Living Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Older Population Sex Ratios Very Low in Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Older Men Are Married; Older Women Are Widowed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Widowhood Rises Sharply After Age 65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Most Older People Reside With Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Intergenerational Coresidence Is on the Decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

Nearly Half of Older Women Live Alone in Some European Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Skipped-Generation Households Are a Feature of Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Use of Long-Term Care Facilities Varies by Social Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Chapter 7. Social and Family Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Some Countries Have Just Three Working-Aged People per One Older Person . . . . . . . . . . 79

Elements of the Total Dependency Ratio Reflect Age Structure and Support Needs . . . . . . 83

China’s Shifting Age Composition Alters Dependency Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Adult Children Are the Main Providers of Support to Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Proportions of Childless Older People May Rise in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Home Help Services Reduce the Need for Institutionalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

Older People Provide As Well As Receive Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

Grandparenting Is a Primary Role in Many Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Chapter 8. Education and Literacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Attainment Gap Between Developed and Developing Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Illiteracy at Older Ages Still Common in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

Future Older People Will Have Higher Levels of Literacy and Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

Educational Disadvantage Common in Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Educational Level Correlates With Older People’s Employment and Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . 97

Education Improves Older People’s Physical Functioning and Self-Reported Health . . . . . . 99

Health Literacy and Financial Literacy Are Gaining Attention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Chapter 9. Labor Force Participation and Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Labor Force Participation at Ages 65 and Over Exceeds 30 Percent in Some Countries . . . 103

New Trend in Labor Force Participation Since 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

Agriculture Still an Important Source of Employment for Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

Different Bridges to Retirement Have Emerged . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

Part-Time Work Increases With Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Unemployment Relatively Low Among Older Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Invalidity and Disability Programs May Be Avenues to Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Actual Retirement Age Often Lower Than Statutory Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Adults Spending Greater Portion of Life in Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Public Pension System Provisions Can Induce Early Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Developed Country Trend Toward Earlier Retirement Has Changed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

Chapter 10. Pensions and Old-Age Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Demographic Change Alone May Double the Retiree/Worker Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Number of National Old-Age Security Systems Rising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Pension Coverage Spotty and Declining in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
From Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

How Generous Are Public Pensions? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

Public Pensions Absorb One-Eighth of GDP in the European Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

Mandatory Private Pension Plans Becoming More Prominent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Administrative Costs of Pension Systems High in Some Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . 124

Private Pension Fund Assets a Major Source of Long-Term Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Trend Toward Pension Privatization Began in Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

Universal Pensions Address Aging and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

Governments Considering New Pillars of Old-Age Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Chapter 11. Concluding Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Appendix A. Country Composition of World Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Appendix B. Detailed Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

Appendix C. Sources and Limitations of the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Appendix D. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

Figures

1-1. Percent Population Aged 65 and Over: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1-2. Percent Population Aged 65 and Over: 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2-1. Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 

 1950 to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

2-2. Population Aged 65 and Over by Size Threshold (2 Million): 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . 9

2-3. Average Annual Percent Growth of Older Population in Developed and 

 Developing Countries: 1950 to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2-4. The World’s 25 Oldest Countries: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2-5. Percent Increase in Population Aged 65 and Over: 2008 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2-6. The Speed of Population Aging in Selected Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

2-7. Aging Index: 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2-8. Aging Index for Counties in China: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

2-9. Median Age in 12 Countries: 2008, 2020, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

3-1. Population in Developed and Developing Countries by Age and Sex: 

 1960, 2000, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

3-2. Total Fertility Rate for Selected Countries by Region: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

3-3. Countries/Areas With a Projected Population Decline of at Least 1 Million 

 Between 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

3-4. Projected Age-Specific Population Change in Russia Between 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . 24

3-5. Global Distribution of People Aged 80 and Over: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

3-6. Oldest Old as a Percentage of All Older People: 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3-7. Percent Change in the World’s Population: 2005 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

3-8. Economic Life Cycle of a Typical Thai Worker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

4-1. Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries by Region: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

4-2. Life Expectancy at Birth: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

4-3. Life Expectancy at Birth for Four Countries by Sex: 1950 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

4-4. Population With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in Botswana by 

 Age and Sex: 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

4-5. Highest National Life Expectancy at Birth: 1840 to 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

4-6. Female Advantage in Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries: 2008 . . . . . . . . 41

4-7. Mortality Rates at Older Ages for Three Countries by Sex: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

4-8. Evolution of Life Expectancy at Age 65 in Japan, the United States, and France 

 by Sex: 1950 to 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4-9. Percent Change in Death Rates for Two Older Age Groups in Selected Countries 

 by Sex: 1994 to 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

4-10. Major Causes of Death in the European Union by Age: 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

4-11. Lifetime Risk of Lung Cancer in 13 European Countries by Sex: Circa 2006 . . . . . . . . 46

5-1. Survival Curve for U.S. White Females: 1901 and 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

5-2. Proportion of All Deaths Occurring at Age 65 or Over in 

 29 Countries/Areas: Circa 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

5-3. Chronic Disability Decline in the United States: 1982 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5-4. Age and Sex Structure of Disability in the Philippines: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

5-5. The Increasing Burden of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases on Countries 

 by Income Level: 2002 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

5-6. Percent Overweight and Obese Among Men and Women Aged 50 and Over 

 in Ten European Countries: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5-7. Probability of Being Disabled at Ages 60 and Over Conditional on Early Childhood 

 Health Conditions in Seven Latin American/Caribbean Cities and 

 in Puerto Rico: Circa 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

5-8. Health Expenditure and Percent Aged 65 and Over in 24 OECD Nations: 2003 . . . . . . 61

5-9. Components of Real Growth in Health Care Spending per Capita, United States 

 and 20-Nation OECD Aggregate: 1970 to 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

6-1. Sex Ratio of the Older Population: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

6-2. Aggregate Sex Ratios for Older Age Groups: 2008 and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

6-3. Percent Married at Older Ages for Selected Countries by Sex: Circa 2001 . . . . . . . . . . 68

6-4. Percent Widowed in Denmark by Age and Sex: 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

6-5. Change in Proportions Married and Widowed for People Aged 65 and Over in the 

 United Kingdom by Sex: 1971 to 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

6-6. Living Arrangements for Household Population Aged 65 and Over 

 in Argentina: 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

6-7. Living Arrangements for People Aged 65 and Over in Japan: 1960 to 2010 . . . . . . . . 72

6-8. People Aged 65 and Over Living Alone in Ten European Nations by Sex: 2001 . . . . . . 73

6-9. Living Arrangements for People Aged 60 and Over in Sub-Saharan Africa 

 by Residence: Circa 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

6-10. Percentage of People Aged 65 and Over in Institutions: Circa 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

7-1. Older Dependency Ratio for 20 Countries: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

7-2. Older Dependency Ratio: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

7-3. Older Dependency Ratio for World Regions: 2000, 2020, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

7-4. Standard and Alternative Older Dependency Ratios for Five Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . 82

7-5. Composition of Total Dependency Ratios for Selected Countries: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

7-6. Population for China by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

7-7. Youth and Older Dependency Ratios in China: 1953 to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

7-8. Proximity to Nearest Living Child for People Aged 80 and Over in 

 Ten European Countries: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

7-9. Percent Childless Among Women Aged 65 in Selected Countries: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

7-10. Percentage of Population Aged 65 and Over Receiving Formal Home Help in 

 Selected Countries: Circa 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

8-1. Percentage of People Aged 55 to 64 Who Have Completed Secondary and 

 Tertiary Education in 29 OECD Countries: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

8-2. Percentage of People in Two Age Groups Who Have Completed Secondary 

 Education in Nine Developing Countries by Sex: Circa 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

8-3. Percent Illiterate for Two Age Groups in Four Countries by Sex: Circa 2000 . . . . . . . . 94

8-4. Percentage of People Aged 55 and Over Who Have Completed High School or 

 Above in the United States: 1940 to 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

8-5. Percent Literate by Age, Sex, and Urban and Rural Residence in India: 2001 . . . . . . . . 96

8-6. Employment Rate for People Aged 50 to 64 in Germany, Bulgaria, and the 

 United Kingdom by Education Level: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
8-7. Relative Earnings for People Aged 25 to 64 in 11 Countries by 

 Educational Attainment: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

8-8. Percentage of People Aged 60 and Over With Activity Limitations in China 

 by Educational Attainment and Urban/Rural Residence: 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

8-9. Internet Use in the United Kingdom by Age: April 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

9-1. Labor Force Participation Rates for Italy, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Madagascar 

 by Age and Sex: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

9-2. Aggregate European Union Employment Rate for People Aged 55 to 64: 

 1994 to 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

9-3. Labor Force Participation Rate for People Aged 55 to 64 in Six Latin American 

 Countries by Sex: Mid-/Late 1990s and Circa 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

9-4. Employment for People Aged 65 and Over in Ireland by Sector and Sex: 2006 . . . . . . 108

9-5. People Aged 65 and Over as a Percentage of All Small Agricultural Unit Holders in 

 Nine Countries: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

9-6. Percentage of All Workers Who Work Part-Time in the European Union by Age 

 and Sex: 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

9-7. Number of Working Hours per Week for Employed Older Workers in the 

 European Union by Age and Sex: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

9-8. Older Workers Not Working Because of Illness or Disability in 20 Countries: 2004 . . . 112

9-9. Official Versus Actual Average Retirement Age for Seven Countries by Sex: 2006 . . . . 114

9-10. Years of Life Expectancy After Retirement in Ten Countries by Sex: 

 2004 Versus 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

10-1. Ratio of Retirement-Aged to Working-Aged Population for Ten Countries 

 by Sex: 2005 and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

10-2. Countries With Public Old-Age/Disability/Survivors Programs: 1940 to 2004 . . . . . . . 119

10-3. Social Security Coverage in 13 Latin American Countries: Circa 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

10-4. Net Replacement Rate in Mandatory Pension Programs for Men in 

 Selected Countries: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

10-5. Pension Expenditure in Selected European Union Countries as a 

 Percentage of GDP: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

10-6. Administrative Costs as a Percentage of Assets in Privately Managed Plans for 

 Selected Countries: 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

10-7. Private Pension Fund Assets as a Percentage of GDP in Six Countries: 

 1970 and 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

10-8. Real Rate of Return of Chile’s Private Pension System: 1981 to 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

10-9. China’s Declining Ratio of Covered Workers to Pensioners: 1980 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . 129

10-10. Percentage of Households With Members Aged 50 and Over Owning Mutual Funds 

 and Stocks for Ten Countries: 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Tables

2-1. Percent Older Population by Region: 2008 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

2-2. Rank Order of the World’s 25 Largest Older Populations: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3-1. Percent Population Aged 65 and Over for 20 Cities Compared With the 

 Respective National Average: Selected Years, 1999 to 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

4-1. Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries by Sex: 1900, 1950, and 2008 . . . . . . 37

4-2. Suicide Rates for Selected Age Groups in 30 Countries: Circa 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5-1. Rank Order of the Ten Leading Causes of Death in Taiwan: 

 1956, 1976, 1996, and 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

5-2. Average Annual Growth Rate in the Prevalence of Selected Conditions Among People 

 Aged 65 and Over: Selected Periods, 1980 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

5-3. Rank Order of Disease Burden in High-Income Versus Low- and 

 Middle-Income Countries: 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

6-1. Percent of People Aged 60 and Over Living Alone by Sex: Circa 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
6-2. Cumulative Crude Death Rate Due to AIDS and Living Arrangements of People 

 Aged 60 and Over in 22 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Circa 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

7-1. Total, Older, and Youth Dependency Ratios for World Regions: 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

9-1. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex for Selected Countries: Circa 2006 . . 104

10-1. Countries With Universal Non-Means-Tested Pensions: Circa 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

Boxes

1-1. Geographic Terms in This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1-2. Projected Data in This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2-1. Numbers and Percentages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

3-1. Demographic Transition Theory and the Age-Sex Composition of Populations . . . . . . 20

3-2. Demographic Dividends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

4-1. Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

4-2. Suicide Rates Much Higher Among Older Men Than Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5-1. Disability Decline in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5-2. Socioeconomic Correlates of Mortality and Disability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

5-3. Middle-Aged Britons Are Notably Healthier Than Middle-Aged Americans . . . . . . . . . . 63

7-1. Standard and Alternative Older Dependency Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

8-1. Silver Surfers—Older People and the Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

10-1. India’s National Old Age Pension Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

10-2. China—Rethinking Social Security in an Emerging Market Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

11-1. New Data for an Aging World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

Appendix Tables

B-1. Total Population, Percent Older, and Percent Oldest Old by Country: 

 1950, 1980, 2010, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

B-2. Percent Change in Population for Older Age Groups by Country: 

 2000 to 2020 and 2020 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

B-3. Median Age by Country: 2000, 2020, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

B-4. Sex Ratio for Population 35 Years and Over by Age and Country: 

 2000, 2020, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

B-5. Total and Older Urban Population by Sex and Country: 

 Selected Years 1969 to 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

B-6. Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: 

 Selected Years 1969 to 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

B-7. Dependency Ratios by Country: 2000, 2020, and 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

B-8. Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: 

 Selected Years 1969 to 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 1

The world’s population is now 

aging at an unprecedented rate. 

Fertility decline together with 

urbanization were the dominant 

global demographic trends during 

the second half of the twentieth 

century, much as rapid improvements in life expectancy characterized the early 1900s. As we 

move through the first decade of 

the twenty-first century, population aging has emerged as a major 

demographic worldwide trend. 

Declining fertility and improved 

health and longevity have generated rising numbers and proportions of the older population in 

most of the world. As education 

and income levels rise, increasing 

numbers of individuals reach older 

age with markedly different longevity and personal expectations than 

their forebears.

Population aging represents, in 

one sense, a human success story 

of increased longevity. However, 

the steady, sustained growth of 

older populations also poses many 

challenges to policymakers.1 In a 

few years’ time, just after 2010, the 

numbers and proportions of older 

people (especially the oldest old) 

will begin to rise rapidly in most 

developed and many developing 

countries. The increase is primarily the result of high fertility levels 

after World War II and secondarily, 

1 This report generally uses the following terms for component age groups: the 

“older population” to refer to people aged 

65 and over and the “oldest old” to refer to 

people 80 and over. In some contexts (e.g., 

older people in the labor force), it is useful 

or necessary (due to data restrictions) to use 

other age groupings.

but increasingly, the result of 

reduced death rates at older ages. 

Population aging and its global 

implications have received considerable attention in industrialized 

countries, and awareness is growing 

in the rest of the world. In 2002, the 

United Nations convened its second World Assembly on Aging (the 

first was in 1982) to consider the 

ramifications of global population 

aging. In 2007, the U.S. National 

Institute on Aging and the U.S. 

Department of State jointly issued 

a report entitled Why Population 

Aging Matters. Using data from 

the U.S. Census Bureau, the United 

Nations, the Statistical Office of the 

European Communities, as well as 

from regional surveys and scientific 

journals, the report identified nine 

trends that offer a snapshot 

of challenges: 

•	 The world’s population is aging.

People aged 65 and over will 

soon outnumber children under 

age 5 for the first time in history.

•	 Life expectancy is increasing.

Most countries show a steady 

increase in longevity over time, 

which raises questions about the 

potential for the human lifespan.

•	 The number of the oldest old is 

rising. The world’s population 

aged 80 and over is projected to 

increase 233 percent between 

2008 and 2040, compared with 

160 percent for the population aged 65 and over and 33 

percent for the total population 

of all ages.

•	 Some populations are aging 

while their size declines. While 

the world’s population is aging, 

total population size is simultaneously declining in some 

countries, and the list of these 

countries is projected to expand.

•	 Noncommunicable diseases are 

becoming a growing burden.

Chronic noncommunicable diseases are now the major cause 

of death among older people in 

both developed and developing 

countries. 

•	 Family structures are changing.

As people live longer and have 

fewer children, family structures are transformed and care 

options in older age may change.

•	 Patterns of work and retirement 

are shifting. Shrinking ratios 

of workers to pensioners and 

people spending a larger portion of their lives in retirement 

increasingly tax existing health 

and pension systems. 

•	 Social insurance systems are 

evolving. As social insurance 

expenditures escalate, an 

increasing number of countries 

are evaluating the sustainability 

of these systems and revamping 

old-age security provisions. 

•	 New economic challenges are 

emerging. Population aging has 

and will have large effects on 

social entitlement programs, 

labor supply, and total savings 

around the globe.

Chapter 1.

Introduction
2 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Box 1-1.

Geographic Terms in This Report

The “developed” and “developing” country categories used in this 

report correspond directly to the “more developed” and “less developed” classification employed by the United Nations. Developed 

countries comprise all nations in Europe (including some nations 

that formerly were part of the Soviet Union) and North America, plus 

Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The remaining nations of the 

world are classified as developing countries.

Data for world regions (e.g., Latin America and the Caribbean) generally are aggregated from individual country files of the International 

Data Base (IDB) of the Population Division of the Census Bureau. See 

Appendix A for a list of countries in each region.

Data for China include the Special Administrative Regions of Hong 

Kong and Macau. Data for China do not include Taiwan.

One purpose of this report, then, 

is to look at past, current, and 

projected numbers, proportions, 

and growth rates of older populations. Older populations also have 

increased because of worldwide 

improvements in health services, 

educational status, and economic 

development. The characteristics 

of older people are likely to be 

increasingly heterogeneous within 

nations. A second purpose of An 

Aging World: 2008 is to summarize 

socioeconomic statistics for both 

developed and developing nations. 

Comparable data are included for 

as many as 52 nations when the categories are reasonably consistent. 

In 2008, these 52 nations (Appendix 

Table B-1) contained 77 percent of 

the world’s total population and are 

referred to as “study countries” at 

various points in the text.

This report focuses primarily on 

people 65 years old and older. 

As is true of younger age groups, 

people aged 65 and over have 

very different economic resources, 

health statuses, living arrangements, and levels of integration 

into social life. An Aging World: 

2008 acknowledges this diversity 

by disaggregating statistics into 

narrower age groups where possible. Such examination may reveal 

important demographic, social, 

and economic differences that have 

direct bearing on social policy now 

and in the future. For example, 

the fastest-growing portion of the 

older population in many nations is 

the oldest old, those aged 80 and 

over. Rapidly expanding numbers 

of very old people represent a 

social phenomenon without historical precedent—one that is bound 

to alter previously held stereotypes. The growth of the oldest old 

is salient to public policy because 

individual needs and social responsibilities change considerably with 

increased age.

An Aging World: 2008 is the ninth 

crossnational report in a Census 

Bureau series on the world’s older 

populations. The first two reports, 

An Aging World (1987) and Aging in 

the Third World (1988), used data 

primarily from the 1970 and 1980 

rounds of worldwide censuses 

(those taken from 1965 to 1974 

and 1975 to 1984, respectively), as 

well as demographic projections 

produced by the United Nations 

Each of the nine trends is examined 

further in this report. Rigorous 

scientific research on global aging 

issues based on comparable 

harmonized data will help nations 

better address the challenges and 

opportunities of an aging world 

(Burkhauser and Lillard, 2005). 

The growth of older populations 

has commonly been associated 

with the developed, industrialized 

countries of Europe and North 

America. Most developed nations 

are among the demographically 

oldest in the world today, and some 

may have more grandparents than 

young children before the middle 

of the twenty-first century. In the 

early 1990s, developed nations as a 

whole had about as many children 

under 15 years of age as people 

aged 55 and over (approximately 

22 percent of the total population 

in each category). The developing 

world, by contrast, still had a high 

proportion of children (35 percent 

of all people were under age 15) 

and a relatively low proportion (10 

percent) of people aged 55 and 

over. However, the numbers of 

older people in developing nations 

often are large and everywhere 

are increasing. Well over half of the 

world’s people aged 65 and over 

now live in developing nations 

(62 percent, or 313 million people, 

in 2008). By 2040, this share is 

projected to exceed three-quarters, 

with the absolute number of older 

people in developing countries 

topping 1 billion. Many developing countries have had or are now 

experiencing a notable downturn 

in their rate of natural population 

increase (births minus deaths), similar to what previously occurred in 

most industrialized nations. As this 

process accelerates, age structures 

will change. Eventually, older people 

become an ever-larger proportion of 

each nation’s total population. 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 3

Population Division from its 1984 

assessment of global population. 

Subsequent reports—Population 

and Health Transitions (1992); 

Aging in Eastern Europe and 

the Former Soviet Union (1993); 

An Aging World II (1993); Older 

Workers, Retirement and Pensions

(1995); An Aging World: 2001; 

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan 

Africa: Demographic Dimensions 

2006—and the current report 

include historical data from the 

earlier reports, available data from 

the 1990 and 2000 rounds of censuses, information from national 

sample surveys and administrative 

records, historical and projected 

data from the United Nations, and 

data from component population projections prepared by the 

International Programs Center (IPC) 

of the Population Division of the 

Census Bureau. Differences among 

reports in projected data reflect 

either a change in the source of the 

projections or revised demographic 

insights and assumptions based on 

the most recent information.

Many of the data included in this 

report are from the Census Bureau’s 

International Data Base (IDB). The 

IDB is maintained and updated by 

the IPC and is funded in part by 

the Behavioral and Social Research 

Program of the U.S. National 

Institute on Aging. IDB contents are 

readily available from the Census 

Bureau’s Web site; the direct access 

address is <www.census.gov/ipc

/www/idb/>.

Appendix C provides more information about the sources, limitations, and availability of IDB files 

and report data in general. There 

are vast differences in both the 

quantity and quality of statistics 

reported by various countries. The 

United Nations and other organizations have provided international 

recommendations for the standardization of concepts and definitions of data collected in censuses 

and surveys. Nevertheless, wide 

discrepancies still exist in data 

collection and tabulation practices because of differences in the 

resources and information needs 

among countries. As a result, any 

attempt to compile standardized 

data across countries requires consideration of whether and how the 

reported data should be analyzed 

to achieve comparability. This 

caveat is particularly applicable 

to the present report because the 

IDB data are not accompanied by 

standard errors. Accordingly, no 

conclusions can be reached concerning the statistical significance 

of differences between population 

estimates presented in this report.

The demographic data in this 

report have been evaluated by 

Census Bureau analysts and are 

believed to be representative of 

the situation in a given country. 

The data are internally consistent 

and congruent with other facts 

known about the nations. These 

demographic data also have been 

checked for external consistency, 

that is, compared with information on other countries in the same 

region or subregion and with countries elsewhere at approximately 

the same level of socioeconomic 

development. The socioeconomic 

data, by contrast, typically are as 

reported by the countries themselves. Although Census Bureau 

analysts have not directly evaluated 

these data, analysts have attempted 

to resolve discrepancies in reported 

figures and eliminate international 

inconsistencies; data with obvious 

incongruities are not included.

People are living longer and, in 

some parts of the world, healthier 

lives. This represents one of the 

crowning achievements of the 

last century but also a significant 

challenge as proportions of older 

people increase in most countries. 

Box 1-2.

Projected Data in This Report

Throughout this report, projections of population size and composition come from the Population Division of the Census Bureau, unless 

otherwise indicated. As discussed further in Appendix C, these projections are based on analyses of individual national population age 

and sex structures; components of population change (rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration); and assumptions about the future 

trajectories of fertility, mortality, and migration for each country. 

The population projections in this report were current as of January 

2008. Projections for the United States and other countries are 

updated periodically as new data become available. Therefore, the 

data in this report are not the latest available for every country and, by 

extension, for groups of countries aggregated into regions. The impact 

of projection updates on indicators of population aging generally is 

modest and does not affect the overall trends described in this report.

Interested users may find the latest population figures for the United 

States (released in August 2008) at <www.census.gov/population

/www/projections/index.html>. The latest population projections for 

all other countries of the world are available at <www.census.gov

/ipc/www/idb/>.
4 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau Percent 65 years and over Less than 3.0 3.0 to 4.9 5.0 to 10.9 11.0 or more Figure 1-1. Percent Population Aged 65 and Over: 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 

5

Percent 65 years and over

Less than 3.03.0 to 4.95.0 to 10.911.0 or more 

Figure 1-2. 

Percent Population Aged 65 and Over: 2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008.
6 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Current growth of older populations is steady in some countries 

and explosive in others. As the 

World War II Baby Boom cohorts 

common to many countries begin 

to reach older age after 2010, there 

will be a jump in the proportion 

of the world’s older population 

(Figures 1-1 and 1-2). Policymakers 

need to understand the characteristics of older populations, 

their strengths, and their requirements. The effects will be felt not 

just within individual nations but 

throughout the global economy. 

Understanding the dynamics of 

aging requires accurate descriptions of older populations from 

interrelated perspectives, including 

demographic, social, economic, 

medical, biological, and genetic. 

The IDB and this report are an 

effort to contribute to a consistent, 

systematic, quantitative comparison of older populations in various 

countries.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 7

The current level and pace of 

population aging vary widely by 

geographic region, and usually 

within regions as well, but virtually 

all nations are now experiencing 

growth in their number of older 

residents. While developed nations 

have relatively high proportions of 

people aged 65 and over, the most 

rapid increases in older population 

are in the developing world. Even 

in nations where the older percentage of the total population remains 

small, absolute numbers may be 

rising steeply. Everywhere, the 

growth of older populations poses 

challenges to social institutions 

that must adapt to changing 

age structures.

Older People to Soon 

Outnumber Young

Children

Estimates of the world’s population age structure at various points 

in the past indicate that children 

under age 5 have outnumbered 

older people. In fewer than 10 years 

from now this will change (U.S. 

National Institute on Aging and U.S. 

Department of State, 2007). For the 

first time, people aged 65 and over 

are expected to outnumber children 

under age 5 (Figure 2-1). The global 

population aged 65 and over was 

estimated to be 506 million as of 

midyear 2008, about 7 percent of 

the world’s population. By 2040, 

the world is projected to have 1.3 

billion older people—accounting for 

14 percent of the total.

World’s Older

Population Increasing

870,000 Each Month

The world’s older population has 

been growing for centuries. What 

is new is the accelerating pace of 

aging. The world’s older population of 506 million people in 2008 

represented an increase of 10.4 

million since 2007. The world’s 

older population grew by an average of 870,000 people each month 

during the year. Projections 10 years 

hence suggest that the annual net 

increase will be on the order of 23 

million, an average net monthly 

gain of 1.9 million people. In 1990, 

26 nations had older populations of 

at least 2 million, and by 2008, 38 

countries had reached the 2-million 

mark. Projections to the year 2040 

Chapter 2.

Global Aging
8 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

about the future course of 

human fertility. Short-term and 

medium-term projections of tomorrow’s older population are not contingent upon fertility because anyone who will be aged 65 or over in 

2040 has already been born. When 

projecting the size and composition 

of the world’s future older population, human mortality is the key 

demographic component. However, 

uncertainties about changing mortality may lead to widely divergent 

projections of the size of tomorrow’s older population.

indicate that 72 countries will have 

2 million or more people aged 65 

and over (Figure 2-2).

Projections of older populations 

may be more accurate than projections of total population, which 

must incorporate assumptions 

Figure 2-1. 

Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 

1950 to 2050

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b.

0

5

10

15

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Percent

Under 5

65 and over
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 

9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008.

Population 65 years and over

Under 2 million in 2008 and 20402 million or more in 2008 and 20402 million or more in 2040, not in 2008

Figure 2-2.

Population Aged 65 and Over by Size Threshold (2 Million):

 2008 and 2040
10 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Older Population 

Growing Fastest in 

Developing Countries

Population aging has become a 

widely known phenomenon in the 

industrialized nations of Europe and 

Northern America, but developing 

countries are aging as well, often at 

a much faster rate than in the developed world. Eighty-one percent 

(702,000 people) of the world’s net 

gain of older individuals from July 

2007 to July 2008 occurred in developing countries. As of 2008, 62 

percent (313 million) of the world’s 

people aged 65 and over lived in 

developing countries.

Figure 2-3 shows the different patterns of growth for older populations in developed and developing 

countries. Most notable in developed countries is the steep plunge 

in growth in the early 1980s. The 

slowing of the growth rate may 

be attributed largely to the low 

birth rates that prevailed in many 

developed countries during and 

after World War I, combined with 

war deaths and the effects of the 

influenza pandemic of 1918–19. 

A second, less severe, decline in 

the rate of growth began in the 

mid-1990s and continued in the 

early 2000s. This decline corresponds to lowered fertility during 

the Great Depression and World 

War II. These drops in the growth 

rate highlight the important influence that past fertility trends have 

on current and projected changes 

in the size of older populations.

The current aggregate growth rate 

of the older population in developing countries is more than double 

that in developed countries and 

also double that of the total world 

population. The rate in developing 

countries began to rise in the early 

1960s and has generally continued to increase until recent years. 

After a brief downturn—related 

to lower fertility during World War 

II—the older growth rate in developing countries is expected to 

rise beyond and remain above 3.5 

percent annually from 2015 through 

2030 before declining in subsequent decades. By 2040, today’s 

developing countries are likely to 

be home to more than 1 billion people aged 65 and over, 76 percent of 

the projected world total.

Figure 2-3. 

Average Annual Percent Growth of Older Population in

Developed and Developing Countries: 1950 to 2050

Note: Based on average 5-year period growth rates.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b. 

0

1

2

3

4

5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Percent growth

65-and-over population in developing countries

65-and-over population in developed countries

Total world population, all ages
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 11

Europe Still the

“Oldest” World Region, 

Sub-Saharan Africa the

“Youngest”

Eastern and Western Europe have 

had the highest population proportions aged 65 and over among 

major world regions for many 

decades, and they should remain 

the global leaders well into the 

twenty-first century (Table 2-1).1

By 2040, more than 1 of every 4 

1 See Appendix A for a list of countries in 

each of the regions used in this report. 

Europeans is likely to be at least 65 

years of age, and 1 in 7 is likely to 

be at least 75 years old. Northern 

America and Oceania also have relatively high aggregate older population percentages today, and more 

than 1 in 5 people in Northern 

America is projected to be at least 

age 65 by 2040. Levels for 2008 

in Northern Africa, Asia, and Latin 

America/Caribbean are expected 

to more than double by 2040, 

while aggregate proportions of the 

older population in Sub-Saharan 

Africa will grow rather modestly as 

a result of continued high fertility 

and, in some nations, the impact of 

HIV/AIDS (see Chapter 4).

Two important factors bear mention when considering aggregate 

older proportions of regional 

populations. The first is that 

regional averages often hide wide 

diversity. Bangladesh and Thailand 

may be close geographically, but 

these countries have divergent 

paths of expected population 

aging. Many Caribbean nations 

have high older population proportions (the Caribbean is the 

“oldest” of all developing world 

regions) in relation to their Central 

American neighbors. Second, and 

more important, percentages by 

themselves may not give a sense of 

population momentum. Although 

the change in the percent aged 

65 and over in Sub-Saharan Africa 

from 2008 to 2020 is barely perceptible, the absolute number of 

older people is expected to jump 

by more than 40 percent, from 

23.7 million to 33.3 million. 

Table 2-1.

Percent Older Population by Region: 2008 to 2040

Region 65 years

and over

75 years

and over

80 years

and over

Northern Africa

2008 .................................... 4.9 1.6 0.7

2020 . . ................................. 6.7 2.2 1.1

2040 .................................... 12.8 5.0 2.5

Sub-Saharan Africa

2008 .................................... 3.0 0.9 0.3

2020 . . ................................. 3.3 1.0 0.4

2040 . . ................................. 4.2 1.4 0.6

Asia (excluding Near East)

2008 .................................... 6.8 2.4 1.1

2020 . . ................................. 9.3 3.3 1.7

2040 . . ................................. 16.2 6.8 3.7

Near East

2008 .................................... 4.6 1.7 0.8

2020 . . ................................. 5.7 2.0 1.1

2040 .................................... 9.9 3.8 2.0

Eastern Europe

2008 .................................... 14.5 6.0 3.0

2020 . ........ ........................... 17.3 6.9 4.3

2040 . ........ ........................... 24.4 12.6 7.8

Western Europe

2008 .................................... 17.8 8.5 4.9

2020 . ........ ........................... 20.9 10.1 6.2

2040 . ........ ........................... 28.1 15.0 9.3

Latin America/Caribbean

2008 .................................... 6.5 2.5 1.2

2020 .................................... 8.8 3.3 1.8

2040 .................................... 15.3 6.6 3.7

Northern America

2008 .................................... 12.8 6.2 3.8

2020 . ........ ........................... 16.5 6.9 4.0

2040 . ........ ........................... 20.8 11.6 7.3

Oceania

2008 .................................... 10.8 4.9 2.9

2020 . ........ ........................... 13.7 5.7 3.3

2040 ................................... 18.5 9.1 5.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on March 24, 2008.
12 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Japan Now the World’s

“Oldest” Major Country

The percentage of the population 

aged 65 and over ranged from 

13 percent to 21 percent in 2008 

in most developed countries. For 

many years, Sweden or Italy had 

the highest such proportion, but 

recently Japan became the demographically oldest of the world’s 

major nations.2 More than twentyone percent of all Japanese are 

aged 65 and over, with levels of 

18 percent to 20 percent seen 

in Germany, Greece, Italy, and 

Sweden. With the exception of 

Japan and Georgia, the world’s 25 

oldest countries are all in Europe 

(Figure 2-4). The United States, 

2 Some small areas/jurisdictions have high 

proportions of older residents. In 2008, 22 

percent of all residents of the European principality of Monaco were aged 65 and over. 

Guernsey, the Isle of Man, and San Marino 

also had relatively high proportions (about 17 

percent aged 65 and over in each).

with an older proportion of less 

than 13 percent in 2008, is rather 

young by developed-country standards. However, as the large birth 

cohorts of the post-World War II 

Baby Boom (people born from 1946 

through 1964) begin to reach age 

65 after 2010, the percent older in 

the United States will rise markedly—likely reaching 20 percent 

shortly after the year 2030. Still, 

this figure will be lower than that 

projected for most countries of 

Western Europe.

Figure 2-4. 

The World’s 25 Oldest Countries: 2008

(Percent of population aged 65 years and over) 

Norway

Serbia

Hungary

Denmark

Lithuania

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Slovenia

France

Finland

Georgia

Latvia

Croatia

Portugal

Belgium

Estonia

Bulgaria

Austria

Spain

Sweden

Greece

Germany

Italy

Japan

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 28, 2008. 

21.6

20.0

20.0

19.1

18.3

17.9

17.7

17.6

17.6

17.5

17.4

17.0

16.9

16.6

16.6

16.3

16.3

16.1

16.0

16.0

16.0

15.7

15.6

15.2

15.0
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 13

Singapore’s Older

Population to More

Than Triple by 2040

During the period 2008–2040, the 

projected increase in the older population in the 52 study countries 

ranges from 18 percent in Bulgaria 

to 316 percent in Singapore (Figure 

2-5). Today’s “older” nations will 

experience relatively little change 

compared with many developing 

nations. In addition to Bulgaria, the 

projected increase in the 65-andover population between 2008 

and 2040 is less than 50 percent 

in Germany, Greece, Hungary, 

Italy, Japan, Russia, Sweden, and 

Ukraine. In contrast, gains of more 

than 250 percent are expected 

in many developing countries. 

Many of these are in Asia (e.g., 

Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, 

and the Philippines), but the list 

includes Colombia, Costa Rica, 

Egypt, and Kenya as well.

Figure 2-5. 

Percent Increase in Population Aged 65 

and Over: 2008 to 2040

Bulgaria

Ukraine

Japan

Russia

Germany

Sweden

Zimbabwe

Hungary

South Africa

Greece

Italy

Belgium

Austria

Uruguay

Denmark

United Kingdom

France

Czech Republic

Poland

Norway

Jamaica

Argentina

Malawi

Australia

United States

New Zealand

Canada

Israel

Chile

Thailand

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Uganda

Turkey

Pakistan

China

Tunisia

Indonesia

Brazil

Peru

Guatemala

Mexico

Morocco

Philippines

Kenya

Bangladesh

Costa Rica

Egypt

Malaysia

India

Colombia

Singapore

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 17, 2008.

Developed countries

Developing countries

18

23

30

34

41

43

45

46

47

48

49

53

62

63

65

66

69

69

74

81

83

89

93

105

107

109

114

125

160

179

182

186

200

201

206

209

215

223

225

225

228

232

242

256

260

261

262

265

269

274

276

316
14 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Parts of Asia

Aging the Fastest

Most of today’s developed nations 

have had decades to adjust to 

changing age structures. For example, it took more than a century for 

France’s population aged 65 and 

over to increase from 7 percent to 

14 percent of the total population. 

Rapidly aging Japan is unusual 

among developed countries; the 

percent of the population aged 65 

and over in Japan increased from 

7 percent to 14 percent in 26 

years, from 1970 to 1996 (Figure 

2-6). In contrast to the usual 

Figure 2-6. 

The Speed of Population Aging in Selected Countries 

(Number of years required or expected for percent of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7 percent to 14 percent)

Sources: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; and U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on March 24, 2008. 

Japan (1970-1996)

Poland (1966-2011)

United Kingdom (1930-1975)

Spain (1947-1992)

Hungary (1941-1994)

Canada (1944-2009)

United States (1944-2013)

Australia (1938-2011)

Sweden (1890-1975)

France (1865-1980)

South Korea (2000-2018)

Singapore (2000-2019)

Colombia (2017-2036)

Brazil (2011-2032)

Thailand (2002-2024)

Tunisia (2008-2032)

Sri Lanka (2002-2026)

China (2000-2026)

Chile (1998-2025)

Azerbaijan (2004-2037)

Developed countries Developing countries

115

85

73

69

65

53

45

45

45

26

33

27

26

24

24

22

21

19

19

18

developed-country experience, 

many developing countries are 

experiencing (or soon will experience) a sudden rise in the number 

and percentage of older people, 

often within a single generation. Notably swift increases are 

expected in China and elsewhere 

in eastern and southeastern 

Asia, fueled by dramatic drops 

in fertility levels during the last 

three decades. The change in 

some other developing countries 

will be equally rapid; the same 

demographic aging process that 

unfolded over more than a century 

in France will likely occur in two 

decades in Brazil and Colombia. 

In response to this “compression of 

aging,” institutions in developing 

countries are called upon to adapt 

quickly to accommodate a new age 

structure. Some nations will be 

forced to confront issues, such as 

social support and the allocation 

of resources across generations, 

without the accompanying economic growth that characterized 

the experience of aging societies in 

the West. An often-heard maxim is 

that developed countries grew rich 

before they grew old, while many 

developing nations may grow old 

before they grow rich. 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 15

AN Aging Index

An easily understood indicator of 

age structure is the aging index, 

defined here as the number of 

people aged 65 and over per 100 

youths under age 15. Figure 2-7 

shows the current and projected 

aging index by world region. The 

index presently is highest in Europe 

and lowest in Africa and the Near 

East. Today’s aging index typically 

is much lower in developing countries than in the developed world, 

and the pattern of future change is 

likely to be more varied. If future 

fertility rates remain relatively 

high, as expected in Sub-Saharan 

Africa, the absolute change in the 

aging index will be small. Generally, 

however, the proportional rise in 

the aging index in developing countries is expected to be larger than 

in developed countries.

Among the 52 study countries in 

2008, 10 European countries and 

Japan had more older people than 

youth aged 0 to 14. By 2040, all 

developed countries in Figure 2-5 

are projected to have an aging 

index of at least 130, with the 

exception of the United States 

(104). The projected aging index 

in the United States is lower than 

in several developing countries, 

among them Chile, China, Sri 

Lanka, and Uruguay. By 2040, the 

aging index is expected to be in 

excess of 200 in ten of the study 

Figure 2-7. 

Aging Index: 2008 and 2040 

(Aging index = [65+/0-14]*100)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 15, 2008. 

Oceania

Northern America

Latin America/Caribbean

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Near East

Asia (excluding Near East)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Northern Africa

2008

2040

99

45

109

65

41

14

78

23

202

113

185

97

84

26

12

7

63

16

countries, reaching 314 in Japan 

and 322 in Singapore. 

The aging index also is useful for 

examining within-country differences in the level of population 

aging. As noted in Chapter 3, 

urban and rural areas may differ 

in the extent of aging. There may 

also be other geographic differences, especially in large nations 

such as China (Figure 2-8). Based 

on 2000 census data, the overall aging index in China was 31. 

However, this measure ranged 

from less than 20 in 510 counties, 

many of which are in the central 

and western regions, to more than 

100 in Beijing and Shanghai and 

several surrounding counties. 
16 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau Figure 2-8. Aging Index for Counties in China: 2000 Not available Less than 24.9 25.0 to 39.9 40.0 or more Source: China 2000 census data.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 17

Figure 2-9. 

Median Age in 12 Countries: 

2008, 2020, and 2040

(In years)

Uganda

South Africa

Pakistan

Mexico

China

Brazil

United States

United Kingdom

Japan

Greece

Germany

Australia

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 17, 2008.

2008

2020

2040

29

34

41

33

37

44

26

30

37

21

25

32

24

27

32

15

15

16

37

40

43

43

47

49

41

45

50

43

48

54

39

42

45

36

38

39

Median Age to Rise

in All Countries

Population aging refers most 

simply to increasing proportions 

of older people within an overall 

population age structure. Another 

way to think of population aging 

is to consider a society’s median 

age, the age that divides a population into numerically equal parts 

of younger and older people. For 

example, the 2008 median age in 

the United States was 36 years, 

indicating that the number of 

people under age 36 equals the 

number who have already celebrated their 36th birthday.

The 2008 median ages of the 52 

study countries ranged from 15 in 

Uganda to 44 in Japan. Developed 

countries are all above the 37-year 

level, with the exception of New 

Zealand (35) and the United States 

(36). A majority of developing 

nations have median ages under 

27. During the next three decades, 

the median age will increase in all 

52 countries, though at different 

rates. By 2040, Japan is projected 

to have the highest median age, 

with half of its population aged 

54 and over (Figure 2-9). This 

is largely a reflection of recent 

and projected low levels of fertility. In contrast, persistently high 

birth rates (and in some cases the 

impact of adult AIDS deaths) are 

likely to constrain the 2040 median 

age to less than 30 in Malawi, 

Uganda, and Zimbabwe (Appendix 

Table B-3). 
18 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Box 2-1.

Numbers and Percentages

Population aging is most commonly measured by the share of all 

people in a country or region above a certain age; for example, 

people aged 65 and over as a percentage of all people. Several other 

indicators of aging also may be used. This report includes measures 

such as the aging index, median age, the speed of aging, and the 

dependency ratio. One could also consider indicators such as average 

life expectancy or the proportion of total life expectancy lived after 

age 60 or 65. Sometimes overlooked are absolute numbers of older 

people. While Figure 2-4 shows the world’s oldest countries according to the percentage of the population aged 65 and over, Table 

2-2 ranks the top 25 countries in terms of the absolute size of the 

65-and-over population in 2008. 

Table 2-2.

Rank Order of the World’s 25 Largest Older

Populations: 2008

(In millions)

Rank Country Population aged

65 and over

1 China ... ..................................... . 106.1

2 India ... ...................................... . 59.6

3 United States .................................. 38.7

4 Japan ... ..................................... . 27.5

5 Russia .... ................................... . 19.9

6 Germany ................................. ..... 16.5

7 Indonesia................................. .... . 13.9

8 Brazil ............ ............................. 12.3

9 Italy ... ........................................ 11.7

10 France ... ..................................... 10.4

11 United Kingdom .......... ...................... 9.7

12 Ukraine................................... ..... 7.4

13 Spain .... .................................... . 7.3

14 Pakistan... .................................... 7.2

15 Mexico ... .................................... . 6.7

16 Thailand........ ............................... 5.5

17 Bangladesh . ................................... 5.4

18 Poland ............ ............................ 5.1

19 Turkey ........... ............................. 5.1

20 Vietnam ... .................................... 5.0

21 South Korea . .................................. 4.9

22 Canada ... .................................... 4.6

23 Argentina ........ .............................. 4.4

24 Nigeria ... ..................................... 4.3

25 Philippines ................................. .... 3.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on February 19, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 19

The process of population aging 

has been, in most countries to 

date, determined primarily by fertility (birth) rates and secondarily by 

mortality (death) rates. Populations 

with high fertility tend to have low 

proportions of older people and 

vice versa. Demographers use the 

term “demographic transition” (see 

Box 3-1) to refer to a gradual process wherein a society moves from 

a situation of relatively high rates 

of fertility and mortality to one of 

low rates of fertility and mortality. This transition is characterized first by declines in infant and 

childhood mortality as infectious 

and parasitic diseases are reduced. 

The resulting improvement in life 

expectancy at birth occurs while 

fertility tends to remain high, 

thereby producing large birth 

cohorts and an expanding proportion of children relative to adults. 

Other things being equal, this initial decline in mortality generates a 

younger population age structure.

Generally, populations begin to 

age when fertility declines and 

adult mortality rates improve. 

Successive birth cohorts may eventually become smaller and smaller, 

although countries may experience 

a “baby boom echo” as women 

of prior large birth cohorts reach 

childbearing age. International 

migration usually does not play 

a major role in the aging process 

but can be important in smaller 

populations. Certain Caribbean 

nations, for example, have experienced a combination of emigration 

of working-aged adults, immigration of older retirees from other 

countries, and return migration of 

former emigrants who are above 

the median population age—all 

of which contribute to population 

aging. In the future, international 

migration could assume a more 

prominent role in the aging process, particularly in graying countries where persistently low fertility 

has led to stable or even declining 

total population size. Shortages 

of younger workers may generate 

demands for immigrant labor, and 

many developed countries have 

reconsidered their immigration 

policies (Salt, Clarke, and Wanner 

2004; and Vignon, 2005).

Figure 3-1 illustrates the historical 

and projected aggregate population age transition in developing 

and developed countries. At one 

time, most, if not all, countries had 

a youthful age structure similar 

to that of developing countries 

as a whole in 1960, with a large 

percentage of the entire population under the age of 15. Given 

the relatively high rates of fertility 

that prevailed in many developing 

countries in the 1960s and 1970s, 

the overall pyramid shape had 

not changed radically by 2000. 

However, the beginnings of fertility 

decline can be seen in the roughly 

equal sizes of the youngest three 

age groups. The effects of fertility 

and mortality decline can be seen 

much more clearly in the projected 

pyramid for 2040, which loses its 

strictly triangular shape as the size 

of younger 5-year cohorts stabilizes and the older portion of the 

total population increases.

Chapter 3.

The Dynamics of Population Aging
20 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

The picture in developed countries 

has been and will be quite different. In 1960, there was relatively 

little variation in the size of 5-year 

groups between the ages of 5 and 

34. The effect of the post-World 

War II Baby Boom can be seen in 

the 0–14 age range. By 2000, the 

Baby Boom cohorts were aged 35 

to 54, and younger cohorts were 

becoming successively smaller. 

If fertility rates continue as projected through 2040, the aggregate 

pyramid will start to invert, with 

more weight on the top than on the 

bottom. The size of the oldest-old 

population (especially women) will 

increase, and people aged 80 and 

over may eventually outnumber any 

younger 5-year group. Although the 

effect of fertility decline usually has 

been the driving force in changing 

population age structures, current 

and future changes in mortality will 

assume greater weight, particularly 

in relatively “aged” countries, as discussed in the next chapter (Janssen, 

Kunst, and Mackenbach, 2007).

10 8 642 0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2 468 10

Age

Percent of total population

Male Female

Population in Stage 2 of the

Demographic Transition 

10 8642 0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2468 10

Age

Percent of total population

Male Female

Population at the End of Stage 3 of

the Demographic Transition 

Box 3-1.

Demographic Transition Theory and the Age-Sex Composition of Populations 

Demographers have identified a 

general progression of changes in 

fertility, mortality, and population 

composition through which 

populations have typically passed 

in the modern era, articulated as 

demographic transition theory

(Davis, 1945). The concept of

demographic transition admittedly is a broad one, and some 

argue that it has many permutations or that there is more than 

one form of demographic transition (see, for example, Coale and 

Watkins, 1986). Still, the theory 

offers a useful starting point from

which to explain changes in 

observed age-sex compositions

during the past century. 

The theory begins with the 

observation that, at one time, 

most developed societies had 

high levels of both fertility and 

mortality and a corresponding low 

rate of growth (Stage 1). A picture 

of such a population has a narrow

pyramidal shape with relatively

few people at the older ages.

The second stage of demographic 

transition consists of a substantial 

drop in levels of mortality, 

especially infant mortality. 

Because fertility levels stay high, 

the result is a rapid increase in

population, particularly at the 

younger ages. A pyramid of a 

population at this stage is 

triangular in shape, with a wide

base that reflects large cohorts of

children at the youngest ages and 

progressively smaller cohorts at

each successive age.

The next change that affects 

populations is a decline in the 

level of fertility (Stage 3), which 

causes a slowing of the rate of

population growth and eventually

a more even distribution across 

age groups. A population pyramid

at the end of this stage is more

rectangular in shape, and the 

older age groups are much 

weightier.

10 8642 0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2468 10

Age

Percent of total population

Male Female

Population at Stage 1 of the 

Demographic Transition
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 21

Figure 3-1.

Population in Developed and Developing Countries by Age and Sex: 

1960, 2000, and 2040

Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b; and U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on 

December 28, 2007.

Developed countries

Developing countries

Developed countries

Developing countries 1960

Millions

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

 0-4

 5-9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

2000

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

 0-4

 5-9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

2040

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

 0-4

 5-9

 10-14

 15-19

 20-24

 25-29

 30-34

 35-39

 40-44

 45-49

 50-54

 55-59

 60-64

 65-69

 70-74

 75-79

 80+

Male Female

Age
22 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Legacy of

Fertility Decline

The most prominent historical factor in population aging has been 

fertility decline. The generally 

sustained decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs) in industrialized 

nations since at least 1900 has 

resulted in current levels below the 

population replacement rate of 2.1 

live births per woman in most such 

nations1 (Figure 3-2). Persistent 

low fertility since the late 1970s 

has led to a decline in the size of 

successive birth cohorts and a corresponding increase in the proportion of the older population relative 

to the younger population.

Fertility change in the developing 

world has been more recent and 

more rapid, with most regions 

having achieved major reductions 

in fertility rates over the last 35 

years. Although the aggregate 

TFR remains in excess of 4.5 

children per woman in Africa, 

overall levels in Asia and Latin 

America decreased by about 50 

percent (from 6 to 3 children per 

woman) during the period 1965 

to 1995 and further to around 2.3 

today. U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that fertility in 2008 

was at or below the replacement 

level in more than 40 developing 

countries. Many of these nations 

have relatively small populations 

(e.g., Caribbean and Pacific island 

nations), but the list includes China, 

Brazil, and Vietnam—three countries that together are home to 24 

percent of the world’s population.

1 The total fertility rate (TFR) is defined as 

the average number of children that would be 

born per woman if all women lived to the end 

of their childbearing years and bore children 

according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates. The replacement rate is the total 

fertility rate at which women would have only 

enough children to replace themselves and 

their partner. The replacement rate for a given 

population depends upon the level of mortality, especially infant, childhood, and maternal. 

Figure 3-2. 

Total Fertility Rate for Selected Countries 

by Region: 2008

(Births per woman) Developed countries

Developing countries

Uruguay

Peru 

Mexico

Jamaica

Guatemala

Costa Rica

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Argentina

Turkey

Thailand

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Singapore

Philippines

Pakistan

Malaysia

Japan

Israel

Indonesia

India

China

Bangladesh

Zimbabwe

Uganda

Tunisia

South Africa

Morocco

Malawi

Kenya

Egypt

United States

New Zealand

Canada

Australia

Ukraine

Russia

Poland

Hungary

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

United Kingdom

Sweden

Norway

Italy

Greece

Germany

France

Denmark

Belgium

Austria

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 17, 2008.

Latin America/Caribbean

Africa

Asia

Northern America/Oceania

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

1.4

1.7

1.7

2.0

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.6

2.1

2.1

3.1

1.8

2.8

2.3

2.8

1.2

3.0

3.6

3.0

1.1

1.3

2.0

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.2

3.6

2.3

2.4

2.5

1.9

2.7

4.7

5.7

2.6

2.1

1.7

6.8

3.0
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 23

Aging and

Population Decline: 

An Unprecedented

Development

Some countries are witnessing an 

historically unprecedented demographic phenomenon: simultaneous population aging and overall 

population decline. European 

demographers have sounded 

warning bells for at least the last 

35 years about the possibility of 

declining population size in industrialized nations, but this idea did 

not permeate public discourse 

until recently. Current population 

projections indicate that 28 developed countries and 7 developing 

countries may likely experience 

declines in the size of their populations over the upcoming decades; 

in some countries (e.g., Estonia, 

Italy, Japan, and Ukraine), the 

decline has already begun. Some of 

these decreases will be substantial. 

Russia’s population is expected 

to shrink by 24 million people 

between 2008 and 2040, a drop of 

21 percent. Twelve other coutries 

are projected to experience a 

population decline of at least 

1 million people during the same 

period (Figure 3-3). In the developed world, population decline is 

coupled with population aging. 

While Japan’s total population is 

projected to decrease by nearly 

24 million, the population aged 65 

and over is projected to increase by 

8 million between 2008 and 2040. 

The proportion of the population 

aged 65 and older in Japan is projected to increase from 22 percent 

in 2008 to 34 percent in 2040. 

Declines in population size in 

developed countries are the result 

of extremely low fertility (e.g., 

Russia and Japan have total fertility 

rates of 1.4 and 1.2 births per 

woman, respectively—substantially 

below the level needed to replenish a population in the absence of 

migration). The developing countries that are experiencing or may 

experience population declines 

typically are also experiencing high 

mortality related to HIV/AIDS. For 

example, South Africa’s population 

in 2040 may be 8 million people 

lower than in 2008 due to elevated 

mortality. Life expectancy at birth 

in South Africa fell from 60 years in 

1996 to less than 43 years in 2008. 

Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland 

are also projected to have an HIV/

AIDS-related decline in their populations between 2008 and 2040. 

This expected population decline 

will occur at the same time that 

the proportion aged 65 and over in 

these countries is increasing.

Figure 3-3. 

Countries/Areas With a Projected Population Decline of at Least 1 Million 

Between 2008 and 2040

(In millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 22, 2008.

Taiwan

Czech Republic

Belarus

Bulgaria

Romania

Spain

Poland

Italy

Germany 

South Africa

Ukraine

Japan

Russia 24.1

23.4

9.5

8.4

5.6

4.9

4.0

2.9

2.4

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.0
24 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Challenges for planning arise from 

age-specific population changes. 

For example, Figure 3-4 shows that 

in Russia, all age groups below 

age 60 are likely to decline in size 

between 2008 and 2040, while the 

older age groups increase. This suggests that the demand for health 

care services might outweigh the 

need to build more schools. Since 

the number of younger adults 

of working age is anticipated to 

decline, the working-aged population available to contribute to the 

economy and pension systems is 

shrinking while the older nonworking population is increasing. At the 

same time, the age-specific changes 

strongly suggest that companies 

may have a difficult time attracting 

sufficient numbers of workers for 

economic expansion. 

This shifting age structure is seen 

in many developed countries, 

including those that are not likely 

to undergo population decline 

in the foreseeable future. Both 

France and the United Kingdom, for 

example, are projected to experience an increase in their population 

between 2008 and 2040, but their 

projected age-specific population 

change is similar to that for Russia. 

Various researchers and organizations have examined the likely 

impact of migration as a counterbalance to aging. The consensus is that flows of migrants to 

Europe will not prevent population 

declines in the future or rejuvenate national populations unless 

the migration flows are large (i.e., 

millions annually) and much higher 

than in the recent past. So-called 

“replacement migration” does not 

appear to be a viable solution in 

and of itself, but it could buffer the 

likely impact of future aging if it 

occurs in conjunction with other 

developments such as increased 

labor force participation, especially 

among women but also at older 

ages generally, and fertility inducements as explained below (United 

Nations Department of Economic 

and Social Affairs, 2001; and Fehr, 

Jokisch, and Kotlikoff, 2003). 

Figure 3-4. 

Projected Age-Specific Population Change in Russia Between 2008 and 2040

(Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 22, 2008.

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Age

124.0

33.0

7.9

3.9

60.6

–0.2

–9.3

–41.2

–40.3

–31.1

–28.8

–34.6

–47.5

–40.4

–19.6

–16.7

–26.9
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 25

Is Below-Replacement

Fertility Here to Stay?

In the 1990s, demographers and 

others began to ask if persistent 

below-replacement fertility was a 

threat to European and other societies and if so, could it be altered? 

A theory of the “second demographic transition” evolved, incorporating not only the persistence 

of low fertility but also the emergence of widespread cohabitation, 

childbearing outside of marriage, 

single parenthood, and changes 

in attitudes and norms regarding marriage and sexual behavior 

(Lesthaeghe and Surkyn, 2004; and 

Coleman, 2005). A major question 

is whether the decline in fertility 

will level off and perhaps reverse, 

as population projections typically 

assume, or whether birth rates 

will continue to decline. One study 

(National Research Council, 2000) 

examined the experience of the 

diverse set of countries that have 

made the transition to low fertility. 

In few of these countries has fertility stabilized at rates above two 

children per woman. Such stabilization would depend on substantial 

proportions of higher-order births 

(i.e., four or more births for some 

women), but such higher-order 

births are largely anachronistic in 

industrial-country settings. The 

National Research Council’s tentative conclusion was that fertility is 

unlikely to rebound significantly. A 

more recent review of literature on 

the subject found that expert views 

on the future trajectory of fertility 

were roughly divided (Lutz, 2006). 

Lutz, Skirbekk, and Testa (2006) 

formulated a low-fertility-trap 

hypothesis that self-reinforcing 

mechanisms may produce a continual downward pressure on the 

level of fertility. These mechanisms 

include (1) a demographic force, 

that fewer potential mothers in the 

future will result in fewer births; 

(2) a sociological factor, that ideal 

family size for younger cohorts 

is declining; and (3) an economic 

dimension, that involves conflict 

between rising aspirations and 

declining real income.

Many industrial societies already 

provide incentives for having 

children, though the explicit aim 

is often family welfare rather 

than increasing birth rates. 

Governments employ various 

means to affect fertility, including direct financial incentives for 

additional births; indirect pension 

(i.e., early retirement) or in-kind 

benefits, such as preferential 

access for mothers with many 

children to subsidized housing; and 

measures to reduce the opportunity costs of additional childbearing (Lutz and Skirbekk, 2005; and 

Stamenkova and Chernev, 2006). 

Many European nations have 

adopted more generous parental leave schemes and most have 

programs to provide cash support 

to families with children. In 2004, 

Australia introduced a payment of 

A$3,000 for each birth, and South 

Korea offers financial incentives 

for couples to have a second child 

(United Nations Economic and 

Social Council, 2007). The efficacy 

of such programs is uncertain; 

some experts contend that changing the demographic landscape 

requires not just birth incentives 

but broader integrated policies that 

address support for families with 

children and social integration of 

younger people (Botev, 2006; and 

McDonald, 2006). 

Older Populations

Themselves Often 

Are Aging

An increasingly important feature 

of societal aging is the aging of the 

older population itself. A nation’s 

older population often grows older, 

on average, as a larger proportion 

survives to 80 years and beyond. 

A nation’s oldest-old population 

(defined in this report as people 

aged 80 and over) consumes 

resources disproportionately to 

its overall population size (Zhou, 

Norton, and Stearns, 2003). The 

numerical growth of the oldest old 

means, among other things, that 

pensions and retirement income 

will need to cover more people 

living into their 80s and beyond, 

health care costs may rise, and 

intergenerational relationships 

may take on an added dimension if young children know their 

great-grandparents. Demographers 

expect a large numerical growth of 

centenarians, whose experiences 

may yield empirical clues about the 

process of aging on both an individual and a population level. 

In the mid-1990s, the aggregate 

global growth rate of the oldest 

old was somewhat lower than that 

of the world’s older population as 

a whole, a result of low fertility 

that prevailed in some countries 

around the time of World War I and 

the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918–19. People who were 

reaching age 80 in the mid-1990s 

were part of a relatively small birth 

cohort. The growth rate of the 
26 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

world’s oldest-old population from 

1996 to 1997 was 1.3 percent. Just 

a few years later, however, the 

low-fertility effects of World War I 

had dissipated; from 1999 to 2000, 

the growth rate of the world’s 

80-and-over population jumped to 

3.5 percent, higher than that of the 

world’s older population as a whole 

(2.3 percent). Today, the oldest old 

are the fastest-growing portion of 

the total population in many countries. On a global level, the 80-andover population is projected to 

increase 233 percent between 2008 

and 2040, compared with 160 

percent for the population aged 

65 and over and 33 percent for the 

total population of all ages.2

2 Past population projections often have 

underestimated the improvement in mortality 

rates among the oldest old (National Research 

Council, 2000), and as the next chapter 

points out, the actual number of tomorrow’s 

oldest old could be much higher than presently anticipated. As the average length of 

life increases, the concept of oldest old will 

change. Because of the sustained increases 

in longevity in many nations, more detailed 

information is needed on growing, heterogeneous oldest-old populations. In the past, 

population projections for the world’s countries often grouped everyone aged 80 and 

over into a single, open-ended component. In 

the early 2000s, agencies such as the United 

Nations Population Division and the U.S. 

Census Bureau’s Population Division began 

producing sets of international population 

projections that expanded the range of older 

age groups up to an open-ended category of 

age 100 and over.

The oldest old constituted 19 percent of the world’s older population 

in 2008—26 percent in developed 

countries and 15 percent in developing countries. More than half (52 

percent) of the world’s oldest old 

(and total population) in 2008 lived 

in six countries: China, the United 

States, India, Japan, Germany, and 

Russia (Figure 3-5). An additional 

22 percent lived elsewhere in 

Europe, 12 percent lived elsewhere 

in Asia, and 7 percent lived in Latin 

America and the Caribbean.

Among the 52 study countries, 

the percentage of oldest old in the 

total population in 2008 was half 

Figure 3-5. 

Global Distribution of People Aged 80 and Over: 2008 

(Percent of world total in each country/region)

1 “All others” includes Oceania and Northern America except the United States.

Notes: Individual countries with more than 2 percent of the world’s total are shown separately. Figures may not sum to 100 percent 

due to rounding. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 19, 2008.

All others1

Africa

Other Latin America/

Caribbean

Brazil

United States

Other Europe

Spain

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Russia

Germany

Other Asia

Japan

India

China

3.2

3.9

5.1

2.2

11.7

10.4

2.1

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.8

4.1

11.7

7.4

7.6

17.2
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 27

a percent or less in several developing countries (e.g., Bangladesh, 

Egypt, Malawi, and Uganda). In 

contrast, the oldest old constituted 

5.7 percent of the total population of Italy and Japan and at least 

5 percent in Belgium, France, 

and Sweden. In general, Western 

European nations are above 4 percent, while other developed countries are between 3 percent and 4 

percent. Less than 1 percent of the 

population is aged 80 and over in a 

majority of developing nations.

Countries vary considerably in the 

projected age components of their 

older populations. In the United 

States, the oldest old were about 

30 percent of all older people in 

2008, and they are projected to 

constitute 36 percent in 2040 

(Figure 3-6). Some European 

nations will experience a sustained 

rise in this ratio, while others will 

see an increase during the next 

decade and then a subsequent 

decline. A striking increase is likely 

to occur in Japan; by 2040, 38 

percent of all older Japanese are 

expected to be at least 80 years 

old, up from 26 percent in 2008. 

Most developing countries are 

expected to experience modest 

long-term increases in this ratio.

However, even modest changes 

in the proportion of oldest old in 

the older population can coincide 

with burgeoning absolute numbers. 

The oldest old in the United States 

increased from 374,000 in 1900 to 

more than 11 million in 2008. The 

relatively small percentage-point 

increase in Figure 3-6 represents a 

projected absolute increase of over 

17 million oldest-old people. As 

global longevity lengthens and the 

number of the oldest old multiply, four-generation families may 

become more common. This possibility is offset, however, by trends 

in delayed marriage and rising ages 

at childbearing. In any event, the 

aging of post-World War II Baby 

Boomers could produce a greatgrandparent boom in certain countries. Some working adults will need 

to provide educational expenses for 

their children while simultaneously 

supporting their parents and possibly their grandparents. 

Figure 3-6. 

Oldest Old as a Percentage of All Older People: 2008 and 2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 22, 2008.

United States

Ukraine

Morocco

Japan

Bulgaria

Argentina

2008

2040

25.9

29.9

21.2

31.9

26.4

38.0

15.3

19.1

19.4

30.7

29.5

35.5
28 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Researchers

Eye Increase in 

Centenarians

While people of extreme old age 

constitute a tiny portion of total 

population in most of the world, 

their numbers are growing, 

especially in developed nations. 

Thanks to improvements in nutrition, health, and health care, the 

population aged 100 and over is 

increasing notably. Researchers 

in Europe found that the number 

of centenarians in industrialized 

countries doubled each decade 

between 1950 and 1990. Using 

reliable statistics from ten Western 

European countries and Japan, 

Vaupel and Jeune (1995) estimated 

that some 8,800 centenarians lived 

in these countries as of 1990, and 

that the number of centenarians 

grew at an average annual rate of 

approximately 7 percent between 

the early 1950s and the late 1980s. 

They also estimate that, over the 

course of human history, the odds 

of living from birth to age 100 may 

have risen from 1 in 20 million to 1 

in 50 for females in low-mortality 

nations, such as Japan and Sweden. 

Scientists are now studying data 

on centenarians for clues about 

factors that contribute to longevity (Willcox et al., forthcoming). 

For example, a recent analysis 

of U.S. centenarians born in the 

1880s suggests that a lean body 

mass and having large numbers 

of children were associated with 

extreme longevity, whereas immigration and marital status were not 

statistically significant predictors 

(Gavrilov and Gavrilova, 2007). 

Estimates of centenarians from 

censuses and other data sources 

should be scrutinized carefully, as 

there are several problems with 

obtaining accurate age data on 

very old people. The 1990 U.S. 

census recorded about 37,000 

centenarians, but the actual figure 

is thought to be closer to 28,000 

(Krach and Velkoff, 1999). Census 

2000 recorded more than 50,000 

centenarians, but this figure is artificially high due to age misreporting, data processing errors, and 

allocation of extreme age (Humes 

and Velkoff, 2007). Nevertheless, 

it seems clear that the number 

of centenarians is rising. On the 

global level, the United Nations 

(Department of Economic and 

Social Affairs, 2007b) estimates 

that the population of centenarians 

was about 270,000 as of 2005. By 

2040, this number is projected to 

reach 2.3 million. Figure 3-7 shows 

the projected percent change in 

three age groupings of the older 

population and illustrates the 

rapidity of change at the oldest 

ages relative to the older population as a whole and to the overall 

population growth rate.

Figure 3-7. 

Percent Change in the World’s Population: 2005 to 2040

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b. 

100+

85+

65+

All ages

746

301

164

35
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 29

Older People More

Likely Than Others to

Live in Rural Areas

Urbanization is one of the most 

significant population trends of 

the last 50 years, and according 

to United Nations’ estimates, the 

world will reach a milestone in 

2008. For the first time in history, half of the global population is expected to live in urban 

areas (United Nations Economic 

and Social Council, 2008). Since 

urbanization is driven by youthful 

migration from rural areas to cities, 

it influences the age distribution in 

both sending and receiving areas. 

In general, rural areas have higher 

concentrations of older residents 

than do urban areas; this is primarily the result of the migration of 

young adults to urban areas and, 

to a lesser extent, of return migration of older adults from urban 

areas back to rural homes. One 

study of data for 39 countries from 

the period 1989–1997 showed that 

the percentage of all older people 

living in rural areas was higher 

than the percentage of the total 

population in rural areas in 27 of 

the 39 nations, with no difference 

in 4 nations (Kinsella and Velkoff, 

2001). Recent analyses of trends 

in Northern America indicate that 

rural populations will continue 

to be older than urban populations in the United States, while in 

Canada there is no clear correlation 

between urban or rural residence 

and concentrations of older people 

(Jones, Kandel, and Parker, 2007; 

and Malenfant et al., 2007). 

No Clear Trend Toward

Disproportionate Aging

of Large Cities

Although rural areas tend to be 

disproportionately older compared with urban areas in general, 

data for some large cities reveal 

a relatively high proportion of 

older residents. In countries where 

the youthful influx of rural-tourban migrants slowed before 

1990, many cities may have aging 

populations (Chesnais, 1991). 

Conversely, in countries where 

urbanization rates remain high 

and younger residents continue to 

gravitate toward cities, one would 

expect the proportion of older 

people in cities to be lower than for 

the country as a whole. Data for 20 

major cities, however, do not indicate a clear pattern (Table 3-1). The 

populations of Budapest, Dublin, 

and Montreal are older than their 

respective national averages, but 

this is not the case in Copenhagen, 

London, Los Angeles, and Tokyo. 

Istanbul and Nairobi are younger 

than Turkey and Kenya as a whole, 

but a similar relationship does not 

hold in the Chinese cities of Beijing 

and Shanghai or in Calcutta or Rio 

de Janeiro. Despite the emergence 

of two major global demographic 

trends—population aging and 

urbanization—in recent decades, 

relatively little attention has been 

paid to the impact of these trends 

on the health and well-being of 

older people in cities (for more 

information, see the 2006 groundbreaking study by Victor Rodwin 

and Michael Gusmano, 2006).

Table 3-1.

Percent Population Aged 65 and Over for 20 Cities

Compared With the Respective National Average:

Selected Years, 1999 to 2007

(In percent)

City, country Year City

National

average

Beijing, China ..... ....................... 2000 8.6 7.1

Budapest, Hungary ... .................... 2001 17.6 15.1

Calcutta, India ... ........................ 2001 6.7 4.8

Copenhagen, Denmark. ........ ........... 2007 10.9 15.3

Dublin, Ireland .... ....................... 2006 12.6 11.0

Havana, Cuba ... ........................ 2002 11.5 10.4

Istanbul, Turkey .... ...................... 2000 4.7 5.7

Johannesburg, South Africa................ 2001 4.1 4.6

London, United Kingdom .................. 2001 12.4 15.9

Los Angeles, United States ................ 2000 9.7 12.4

Manila, Philippines... ..................... 2000 3.5 3.8

Montreal, Canada ... ..................... 2001 14.6 13.0

Nairobi, Kenya .... ....................... 1999 1.1 3.3

New York, United States ......... ......... 2000 11.7 12.4

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil ...... ............... 2000 9.1 5.9

San Jose, Costa Rica......... ............ 2000 7.7 5.6

Shanghai, China ... ...................... 2000 11.7 7.1

Stockholm, Sweden....................... 2006 14.3 17.4

Tokyo, Japan ... ......................... 2005 15.8 17.3

Tunis, Tunisia ... ......................... 2004 6.8 6.8

Source: Compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau from national statistics.
30 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

An important aspect of changing population age 

structures is that virtually all countries have experienced, or are projected to experience, a large 

increase in the share of their population concentrated in the working ages. Other things being 

equal, this increase in the share of the workingaged population should have a positive effect on 

per capita income and government tax revenues, 

leading to what is labeled as the “first demographic 

dividend.” This first dividend lasts for decades in 

many countries; but as populations begin to age, the 

share of population in the working ages eventually 

declines, and the dividend becomes negative (Bloom, 

Canning, and Sevilla, 2003; and Mason, 2006). 

A major economic challenge for aging societies is 

to provide for the needs of their older populations 

while potentially experiencing reduced labor income. 

The prospect of rapid growth of the nonworking 

older population, with attendant strains on public 

pension and health care systems, has led to pessimism about future economic performance (Peterson 

1999). However, rather than being an economic 

drain, population aging might give rise to a “second 

demographic dividend.” Societies rely on formal 

(public) and/or informal (largely familial) support 

systems to assist people in older age. Today, many 

countries are looking to increased savings rates and 

greater accumulated capital (wealth) as a response 

to population aging. If countries are successful in 

encouraging increased savings and wealth, this may 

constitute a second demographic dividend, i.e., the 

possibility for enhanced levels of investment and 

economic growth. Unlike the first demographic 

dividend, this second dividend is not necessarily 

transitory in nature. In theory, population aging may 

Box 3-2.

Demographic Dividends

Figure 3-8. 

Economic Life Cycle of a Typical Thai Worker

Source: Chawla, as reported in Lee and Mason, 2006.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Annual per capita labor income and consumption (in baht)

Labor income

Consumption

Age
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 31

produce a permanent increase in capital and in per 

capita income.

Analysis of 228 countries and areas suggests that 

the duration of the first dividend was relatively short 

(30 to 35 years) in most industrial and transitional 

economies, considerably longer in much of Asia and 

Latin America, and likely to be longer still in SubSaharan Africa (Lee and Mason, 2006). Research 

now seeks to construct economic estimates of both 

the first and second dividends in order to contrast 

regional experiences. One interpretation is that the 

demographic dividends, if fully exploited, would 

have contributed between 1 and 2 percentage points 

to income growth during the period 1970–2000 for 

most regions of the world (Lee and Mason, 2006). 

Demographic dividends are not automatic. Their 

full exploitation and impact depend on, to a large 

extent, the existence of strong institutions and 

policies that translate changes in population age 

structure into economic growth. For example, 

weaknesses in the governance and management of 

pension programs (e.g., significant tax evasion or 

unsustainable increases in public pension benefits) 

can offset many potential benefits of demographic 

dividends, as can persistent high levels of unemployment and underemployment. Thus, social context at 

least partially determines how the first and second 

demographic dividends differ throughout the world. 

In societies with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, the 

disease is eliminating a large portion of the first dividend, and there is reason to question whether a second dividend is possible. More generally, in societies 

that have experienced an upswing in mortality rates 

(e.g., many transitional nations in Eastern Europe), 

excess adult mortality may undercut savings rates 

and hence undercut the second dividend. Social 

policy changes also could affect the magnitude of 

any demographic dividends. The elimination of 

mandatory retirement ages, for example, might be 

expected to increase the first dividend and perhaps 

the second dividend as well. 

As of now, the second demographic dividend is 

still a theoretical construct. One analytical tool for 

estimating dividend levels and related effects is the 

life-cycle production-consumption function (Figure 

3-8). By incorporating the age variable into national 

income and product accounts, researchers can 

generate life-cycle composites of consumption and 

production. They can then use these composites to 

generate more detailed national transfer accounts, 

which produce estimates of intergenerational 

reallocations (including savings patterns, spending 

on public programs, and family support systems for 

children and older people) (Mason et al., 2006). The 

next step will be to construct complementary time 

series of the age profiles of production, consumption, and lifecycle deficit, and to examine how these 

are influenced by social, economic, and demographic 

factors. Other researchers (Manton et al., 2007) are 

looking at the aging of labor forces and changes in 

disability rates, considering how to increase health 

and human capital at later ages in order to stimulate increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and 

enhance a potential second demographic dividend.

Box 3-2.

Demographic Dividends—Con.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 33

One of gerontology’s liveliest and 

most enduring debates centers 

around the trajectory of human 

survival. Is average life expectancy 

likely to peak around age 85 or 

90, as some have argued, or will 

new ways be found to sustain the 

large increase in life expectancy 

that began in the mid-1800s and 

has continued to unfold during the ensuing 150 years? While 

some have ascribed the historical 

increase primarily to improvements 

in medicine and public health, 

others have pointed out that the 

major impact of improvements 

both in medicine and sanitation did 

not occur until the late nineteenth 

century (Thomlinson, 1976; and 

Moore, 1993). Earlier important 

factors in lowering mortality were 

innovations in industrial and agricultural production and distribution, which improved nutrition for 

large numbers of people. Today’s 

research consensus attributes the 

gain in human longevity since the 

early 1800s to a complex interplay 

of advancements in medicine and 

sanitation coupled with new modes 

of familial, social, economic, and 

political organization (Riley, 2001).

Life Expectancy at Birth

Exceeds 80 Years in 

11 Countries

Life expectancy at birth in Japan 

and Singapore has reached 82 

years, the highest level of all 

the world’s major countries, and 

has reached at least 80 years in 

numerous other nations. Levels 

for the United States and most 

other developed countries fall in 

the 78–80 year range (Figure 4-1). 

Throughout the developing world, 

there are extreme variations in life 

expectancy at birth (Figure 4-2). 

While the levels in some developing 

nations match or exceed those in 

many European nations, the average lifetime in 25 African countries 

spans fewer than 50 years. On 

average, an individual born in a 

developed country can now expect 

to outlive his or her counterpart in 

the developing world by 14 years.

CHAPTER 4.

Life Expectancy and Mortality
34 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 4-1. 

Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries by Region: 2008

(In years)

Developed countries

Developing countries

Guatemala

Peru

Colombia

Brazil

Jamaica

Mexico

Uruguay

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Bangladesh

Pakistan

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Malaysia

Turkey

China

Sri Lanka

South Korea

Israel

Singapore

Japan

Zimbabwe

South Africa

Malawi

Botswana

Uganda

Kenya

Morocco

Egypt

Tunisia

United States

New Zealand

Canada

Australia

Russia

Ukraine

Bulgaria

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Denmark

United Kingdom

Germany

Belgium

Austria

Greece

Norway

Italy

Sweden

France

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on February 29, 2008.

Latin America/Caribbean

Africa

Asia

Northern America/Oceania

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

78.1

80.9

80.7

80.1

79.8

79.5

79.4

79.1

79.1

78.8

78.1

76.6

75.4

73.2

72.8

68.1

65.9

80.7

80.5

79.1

82.1

81.9

79.7

77.4

75.0

73.2

73.1

73.0

72.8

70.8

70.5

69.2

64.1

63.2

77.4

77.2

76.5

76.1

75.8

73.0

72.5

72.5

70.4

70.0

75.6

71.8

71.5

56.6

52.3

50.2

43.5

42.4

39.7
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 35 Less than 64 64 to 72 73 to 77 78 or more Life expectancy in years Figure 4-2. Life Expectancy at Birth: 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008.
36 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Twentieth Century Life

Expectancy Doubled

in Some Developed

Countries

Table 4-1 shows the enormous 

strides that countries have made 

in extending life expectancy since 

1900. In some countries (e.g., 

Austria, Greece, and Spain), life 

expectancy more than doubled 

during the twentieth century. 

Increases in life expectancy were 

more rapid in the first half than 

in the second half of the century. 

Expansion of public health services 

and facilities and disease eradication programs greatly reduced 

death rates, particularly among 

infants and children. From 1900 

to 1950, people in many Western 

nations were able to add 20 years 

or more to their life expectancies. 

Reliable estimates of life expectancy for most developing countries 

prior to 1950 are unavailable. Since 

World War II, changes in life expectancy in developing regions of the 

world have been fairly uniform. 

Practically all nations have shown 

continued improvement, with 

some exceptions in Latin America 

and more recently in Africa, the 

latter due to the impact of HIV/

AIDS. The most dramatic gains in 

the developing world have been in 

eastern Asia, where aggregate life 

expectancy at birth increased from 

less than 45 years in 1950 to more 

than 73 years today (United Nations 

Department of Economic and Social 

Affairs, 2007b).

Rising Life Expectancy at

Birth is Not Universal

While global gains in life expectancy at birth have been the norm, 

unforeseen changes and epidemics 

may reverse the historical pattern. Beginning in the 1950s, the 

typical sustained increase in life 

expectancy at birth in developed 

countries began to take different 

paths. While female life expectancy 

continued to rise virtually everywhere, male gains slowed and in 

some cases leveled off. From the 

early 1950s to the early 1970s, 

for example, male life expectancy 

changed little in Australia, the 

Netherlands, Norway, and the 

United States. After this period, 

male life expectancy again began 

to rise.

In much of Eastern Europe and 

the former Soviet Union, the pace 

of improvement in the 1950s and 

early 1960s was extraordinary. 

Advances in living conditions and 

public health policies combined to 

produce large declines in mortality 

by reducing some major causes of 

death (e.g., tuberculosis) to minimal levels (Vishnevsky, Shkolnikov, 

and Vassin, 1991). Resultant gains 

in life expectancy in excess of 5 

years per decade were common. By 

the mid-1960s, however, the rate of 

increase had decelerated sharply. 

In the 1970s and 1980s, changes 

in female life expectancy at birth 

were erratic, while male life expectancy fell throughout the region 

(Bobadilla and Costello, 1997). 

Following the demise of the Soviet 

Union, the decline in male life 

expectancy at birth continued in 

some countries. The decline has 

been particularly severe for Russian 

men; between 1987 and 1994, male 

life expectancy at birth fell 7.3 years 

to a level of 57.6 years. After rising 

during the mid-1990s, male life 

expectancy again declined in Russia 

(Figure 4-3). Much of this decline 

has been attributed to increases 

in adult male mortality due to a 

combination of factors (Virganskaya 

and Dmitriev, 1992; and Murray 

and Bobadilla, 1997). One analysis 

(Brainerd and Cutler, 2005) identified six possible culprits: the breakdown of the medical care system; 

an increase in traditional risk factors 

for cardiovascular disease (smoking, hypertension, obesity, etc.); 

increased alcohol consumption; 

changes in dietary composition; 

material deprivation (as reflected 

by wages, poverty, and weakened 

social safety nets); and increased 

psychosocial problems (stress, 

negative future expectations, 

and suicide). The study looked at 

national and international data on 

cause-specific mortality rates, medical spending, and socioeconomic 

indicators in combination with 

data from the Russian Longitudinal 

Monitoring Survey. Of the six factors 

just mentioned, two stood out: alcohol consumption and “psychosocial 

stress,” each explaining about 25 

percent of the deterioration in mortality. The other four factors found 

little support in the data, and the 

large unexplained residual underscores that clear causal mechanisms 

remain poorly understood.

In some countries, particularly in 

parts of Africa, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has had a devastating effect 

on life expectancy (see Box 4-1). 

The impact on national life expectancy at birth can be considerable, 

given that HIV/AIDS deaths often 

are concentrated in the childhood 

and mid-adult ages. Estimates 

for the year 2006 suggest that 

HIV/AIDS has reduced female life 

expectancy at birth by more than 

28 years from otherwise projected levels in Botswana, Lesotho, 

Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, 

and Zimbabwe (Velkoff and Kowal, 

2007). While the common perception of HIV/AIDS mortality usually 

associates HIV/AIDS deaths with 

younger adults, the pandemic also 

has a direct and growing effect on 

older populations. In the United 

States in 2005, more than twice 

as many people aged 60 and over 

died of HIV/AIDS as did people 

under age 30 (Centers for Disease 

Control and Prevention, 2007).
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 37

Table 4-1.

Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Countries by Sex: 1900, 1950, and 2008

(In years)

Region/country

Circa 1900 Circa 1950 2008

Male Female Male Female Male Female

Europe

Austria .... ............................... 37.8 39.9 63.2 68.4 76.5 82.4

Belgium ... ............................... 45.4 48.9 65.9 70.9 75.9 82.4

Czech Republic1 .......................... 38.9 41.7 64.5 69.5 73.3 80.1

Denmark ... .............................. 51.6 54.8 69.6 72.4 75.8 80.6

France .... ............................... 45.3 48.7 63.7 69.5 77.7 84.2

Germany1 ................................ 43.8 46.6 65.3 69.6 76.1 82.3

Greece................................... 38.1 39.7 64.3 67.5 77.0 82.2

Hungary. ... .............................. 36.6 38.2 61.5 65.8 69.0 77.6

Italy...................................... 42.9 43.2 64.3 67.8 77.1 83.2

Norway ... ............................... 52.3 55.8 70.9 74.5 77.2 82.6

Spain ..... ............................... 33.9 35.7 61.6 66.3 76.6 83.5

Sweden ...... ............................ 52.8 55.3 70.4 73.3 78.5 83.1

United Kingdom .... ....................... 46.4 50.1 66.7 71.8 76.4 81.5

Other Developed Countries

Australia ... .............................. 53.2 56.8 66.9 72.4 77.9 83.8

Japan.................................... 42.8 44.3 61.6 65.5 78.7 85.6

United States ..... ........................ 48.3 51.1 66.1 72.0 75.3 81.1

Africa

Egypt ...... .............................. (NA) (NA) 41.1 42.7 69.3 74.5

Kenya..... ............................... (NA) (NA) 40.5 44.2 56.4 56.9

Malawi .... ............................... (NA) (NA) 35.8 36.7 43.7 43.1

South Africa ... ........................... (NA) (NA) 44.0 46.0 43.3 41.4

Uganda ... ............................... (NA) (NA) 38.5 41.6 51.3 53.4

Zimbabwe ..... ........................... (NA) (NA) 47.0 50.0 40.9 38.5

Asia

Bangladesh... ............................ (NA) (NA) 38.3 36.7 63.1 63.3

China .................................... (NA) (NA) 39.3 42.3 71.4 75.2

India ... .................................. (NA) (NA) 38.1 36.6 66.9 71.9

South Korea ... ........................... (NA) (NA) 46.0 49.0 74.0 81.1

Thailand... ............................... (NA) (NA) 49.2 52.6 70.5 75.3

Turkey . . ................................. (NA) (NA) 42.0 45.2 70.7 75.7

Latin America

Argentina...... ........................... (NA) (NA) 60.4 65.1 72.8 80.4

Brazil ...... .............................. (NA) (NA) 49.3 52.7 68.6 76.6

Chile...... ............................... (NA) (NA) 52.9 56.8 73.9 80.6

Costa Rica ..... .......................... (NA) (NA) 56.0 58.6 74.8 80.1

Mexico .... ............................... (NA) (NA) 48.9 52.5 73.0 78.8

Uruguay.... .............................. (NA) (NA) 63.3 69.4 72.9 79.5

(NA) Reliable estimates for 1900 for most developing countries are not available.

1 Figures for Germany and Czech Republic prior to 1999 refer to the former West Germany and Czechoslovakia, respectively.

Sources: Siampos, 1990; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b; and U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed

on November 9, 2007.

1

U.S. Census Bureau
38 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 4-3. 

Life Expectancy at Birth for Four Countries by Sex: 1950 to 2005

Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b; and U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 

accessed on January 4, 2007. 

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Male

Years of life expectancy

United States

South Korea

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Female

Years of life expectancy

Russia

Zimbabwe

United States

South Korea

Zimbabwe

Russia
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 39

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is having 

a direct impact on the age and 

sex structure of many countries, 

particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

To evaluate this impact, national 

and international organizations 

now calculate mortality rates and 

life expectancies with and without 

HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Life 

expectancy without HIV/AIDSrelated mortality is an estimate 

of what life expectancy would be 

if a given nation had not experienced an HIV/AIDS epidemic. In 

Botswana, for example, the U.S. 

Census Bureau estimates that 

male and female life expectancies 

at birth in 2006 were 22 years 

and 28 years lower, respectively, 

than they would have been without mortality due to HIV/AIDS. 

For countries affected severely 

by HIV/AIDS, the impact is clearly 

seen in the age and sex structure 

of the population. Figure 4-4 uses 

population pyramids to illustrate 

the population structure with and 

without HIV/AIDS as estimated for 

Botswana in 2006 and projected 

to 2030. The population in 2006 

was smaller than it would have 

been without HIV/AIDS mortality, 

but the age structure still had the 

classic shape of a young population—wide at the bottom and narrow at the top. By 2030, the effect 

of HIV/AIDS on Botswana’s population structure is likely to be more 

pronounced. The pyramid has 

lost the classic young-population 

shape, and the numbers of people 

in each age group are much 

smaller than they would have been 

in the absence of HIV/AIDS mortality. These projections indicate that 

by 2030, HIV/AIDS will reduce the 

size of the 60-and-over population 

by 45 percent from its expected 

level without HIV/AIDS mortality.

Figure 4-4. 

Population With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in Botswana 

by Age and Sex: 2006 and 2030

150 120 90 60 30 0 0 30 60 90 120 150

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Estimate without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Estimate with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Thousands

Age

Estimate without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Estimate with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Male Female

Source: Velkoff and Kowal, 2007.

150 120 90 60 30 0 0 30 60 90 120 150

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

2006

Thousands

Age Male Female

2030

Box 4-1.

Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS
40 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Highest Recorded

Average Life Expectancy

Continues to Rise

A compilation of the highest 

recorded national female life 

expectancies over the period 1840–

2000 showed a steady increase of 

3 months per year (Oeppen and 

Vaupel, 2002). The country with 

the highest average life expectancy has varied over time—in 

1840 it was Sweden, and recently 

it is Japan—but the linearity of the 

pattern is remarkable (Figure 4-5). 

Record life expectancy for males 

also has shown a linear increase, 

though the slope of the increase is 

steeper for females. From a historical perspective, the apparent 

leveling off of life expectancy in 

some countries is part of a process 

whereby those lagging behind periodically catch up and those leading 

fall behind. The long-term view 

implies that reductions in mortality are not a sequence of disconnected revolutions but a continuous stream of progress. Oeppen 

and Vaupel (2002) note that if the 

160-year trend continued, people 

in the country with the highest life 

expectancy would live to an average of 100 years in approximately 

six decades’ time.

Figure 4-5. 

Highest National Life Expectancy at Birth: 1840 to 2000

Note: This figure shows linear-regression trends for annual male and female life expectancies at birth from 1840 through 2000.

Source: Adapted from Oeppen and Vaupel, 2002.

(In years)

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

Women

Men
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 41

Female Advantage in 

Life Expectancy at Birth

Nearly Universal

The widening of the sex differential 

in life expectancy was a central 

feature of mortality trends in developed countries throughout much of 

the twentieth century, although the 

differential has narrowed in some 

countries in the last two to three 

decades. In 1900, women in Europe 

and Northern America typically outlived men by 2 or 3 years. Today, 

the average gap between the sexes 

is roughly 7 years and exceeds 12 

years in parts of the former Soviet 

Union as a result of the unusually high levels of male mortality 

discussed above (Figure 4-6). This 

differential reflects the fact that in 

most nations, females have lower 

mortality than males in every age 

group and for most causes of 

death. Female life expectancy now 

exceeds 80 years in more than 45 

countries and is approaching this 

level in many other nations. The 

gender differential usually is smaller 

in developing countries, commonly 

in the 3- to 6-year range, and may 

be reversed in some southern Asian 

and Sub-Saharan African societies 

where cultural factors (such as low 

female social status and a stronger 

preference for male offspring) and/

or the differential impact of the 

HIV/AIDS pandemic contribute to 

higher male than female life expectancy at birth.

Female Mortality

Advantage Persists

in Older Age

Age-specific female mortality rates 

typically are lower than the corresponding male rates in childhood 

and the working ages, and this 

female advantage continues into 

older age. Figure 4-7 illustrates the 

usual gender pattern of mortality 

at older ages, wherein male rates 

are consistently higher than female 

rates. In Hong Kong and Israel, for 

instance, male mortality rates for 

ages 65 to 69 are roughly twice as 

large as corresponding female rates. 

Simple explanations of the gender difference in life expectancy 

still elude scientists because of 

the apparent complex interplay of 

biological, social, and behavioral 

conditions. Greater use of tobacco 

and alcohol and higher exposure 

to occupational hazards have been 

cited as a source of higher male 

mortality rates (Trovato, 2005; and 

Gee, 2002), suggesting that the gap 

in life expectancy might decrease 

if women increased their use of 

tobacco and alcohol and their 

participation in the labor force. 

Data from industrialized countries 

Figure 4-6. 

Female Advantage in Life Expectancy at Birth for 

Selected Countries: 2008

(In years)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on October 8, 2007. 

Syria

Nepal

Mexico

Egypt

China

Chile

Spain

United States

Russia

Japan

Hungary

France

Belarus

Developed countries

Developing countries

11.8

6.5

6.9

8.1

13.9

5.8

6.9

–0.3

2.8

5.8

5.2

3.8

6.7
42 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

tend to show a narrowing of the 

gender gap in the last two decades, 

although the gap has widened in 

parts of Eastern Europe and the 

former Soviet Union. 

We might expect to see a widening 

of the gender gap in life expectancy in developing countries in 

upcoming decades, along the lines 

of the historical trend in industrialized nations. Evidence suggests 

that many developing countries 

are experiencing increases in 

alcohol and tobacco consumption 

and vehicular as well as industrial 

accidents, all of which tend, at 

least initially, to adversely affect 

men more than women. The United 

Nations has set a major decrease 

in maternal mortality levels as one 

of its Millennium Development 

Goals, and the gender gap in life 

expectancy should increase if 

this goal is approached (United 

Nations, 2008). Another factor 

that may promote a widening 

gender gap is education, which is 

positively related to survival. As 

women “catch up” to men in terms 

of educational attainment, female 

survival and health status may 

improve (Knodel, Ofstedal, and 

Hermalin, 2002).

Figure 4-7. 

Mortality Rates at Older Ages for Three Countries by Sex: 2004

(Deaths per 1,000 population)

85+

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

85+

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

85+

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Demographic Yearbook 2004.

Male

Costa Rica Female

Hong Kong, S.A.R.

Israel

135

154

58

79

35

48

21

28

12

19

113

140

47

76

25

47

15

28

8

17

158

168

61

78

35

48

19

30

10

18
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 43

Old-Age Mortality Rates

Declining Over Time

In countries where infant and 

childhood mortality rates are 

still relatively high, most of the 

improvement in life expectancy at 

birth results from helping infants 

survive the high-risk initial years 

of life. But when a nation’s infant 

and childhood mortality reach low 

levels, longevity gains in older segments of the population account 

for a greater share of the overall 

improvement in life expectancy 

(Gjonca, Brockmann, and Maier, 

2000; and Mesle and Vallin, 2006). 

Many countries are experiencing 

a rise in life expectancy at age 

65, as exemplified by the data for 

three countries in Figure 4-8. The 

average Japanese woman reaching age 65 in 2004 could expect 

to live an additional 23.3 years 

and the average man more than 18 

years. Life expectancy for Japanese 

women at age 65 increased 52 

percent between 1970 and 2004, 

compared with an increase in life 

expectancy at birth of 15 percent. 

A longer-term investigation of 

change in Britain discovered that 

while life expectancy at age 65 

increased 1 year between 1840 and 

1960, it has increased by 1 year 

in each of the decades since 1960 

(Stewart and Vaitlingam, 2004). 

Figure 4-9 shows across-the-board 

declines in mortality in two older 

age groups during a fairly recent 

10-year period. In general, mortality improvements for people aged 

70 to 74 have been larger than for 

people aged 80 to 84.

Figure 4-8. 

Evolution of Life Expectancy at Age 65 in Japan, the 

United States, and France by Sex: 1950 to 2004

(In years)

2004

1990

1970

1950

2004

1990

1970

1950

2003

1990

1970

1950

2003

1990

1970

1950

2004

1990

1970

1950

2004

1990

1970

1950

1

 Latest U.S. data refer to 2003. 

Source: University of California, Berkeley; and Max Planck Institute for Demographic 

Research, Human Mortality Database, accessed on November 7, 2007.

Male

Female Japan

United States1

France

10.9

12.5

16.2

18.2

13.0

15.4

20.0

23.3

12.8

13.0

15.2

16.8

15.1

16.9

19.1

19.6

12.2

13.0

15.5

17.7

14.6

16.8

20.0

22.1
44 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

The pace at which death rates at 

advanced ages decline will affect 

future numbers of the older and 

especially of the very old population. One study in England and 

Wales (Vaupel, 1998) found that 

the life expectancy of 80-yearold women was about 50 percent 

higher in the mid-1990s than in 

1950. Consequently, the number 

of female octogenarians was about 

50 percent higher than it would 

have been had oldest-old mortality 

remained at 1950 levels. In absolute terms, more than one-half 

million oldest-old British women 

were alive in the mid-1990s than 

would have been without mortality improvement.

Figure 4-9. 

Percent Change in Death Rates for Two Older Age Groups in

Selected Countries by Sex: 1994 to 2004

United States

Ukraine

Mauritius1

Japan

Hungary

Germany

Finland

Australia1

United States

Ukraine

Mauritius1

Japan

Hungary

Germany

Finland

Australia1

1

 Data for Australia and Mauritius are for 1993 and 2003. 

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Demographic Yearbook 1996 and 2004.

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Female

Male

–10

–7

–19

–15

–10

–11

–3

–8

–20

–12

–12

–20

–24

–30

–14

–22

–24

–16

–18

–15

–30

–21

–26

–20

–30

–24

–27

–22

–27

–21

–27

–23
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 45

Cardiovascular Disease

the Preeminent Cause

of Death Among

Older People

Summary mortality indexes, such 

as life expectancy, are useful for 

broad comparative purposes but 

may mask changes in mortality by 

age and/or cause of death. Analysis 

of cause-specific changes in mortality can help professionals devise 

medical or nutritional interventions 

to affect overall longevity and the 

quality of years lived at older ages.

Death rates due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs)—a broad 

category that includes heart, 

cerebrovascular (stroke), and 

hypertensive diseases—increase 

with age. One comprehensive analysis of developed nations (Murray 

and Lopez, 1996) attributed nearly 

60 percent of all deaths to women 

aged 60 and over in the early 

1990s to CVDs; the corresponding 

figure for older men was 50 percent. In recent years, death rates 

due to CVDs have declined at older 

ages in many developed countries. 

Nevertheless, CVDs remain the 

primary killer among older populations (European Commission, 

2007). Figure 4-10 shows the 

proportions of all deaths attributed 

to major disease categories for the 

aggregate 25-country European 

Union in 2001. While CVDs may be 

considered “diseases of affluence,” 

their prominence is not limited to 

developed countries. CVDs have 

become the leading cause of death 

in all developing regions of the 

world, except for Sub-Saharan 

Africa (Mathers et al., 2005). In 

developing countries as a whole, 

CVDs cause twice as many deaths 

as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and 

malaria combined (Lopez et al., 

2006; and Gaziano, 2007). 

Chapter 5 discusses in more detail 

the growing impact of CVDs in 

developing countries.

20 1-4 5-9 10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

75-

79

80-

84

 85+ Total

Figure 4-10.

Major Causes of Death in the European Union by Age: 2001

1

 Cancer refers to malignant neoplasms including leukemias and lymphomas. 

2

 In the age group 0 (less than 1 year), the principal causes of death were “certain conditions originating in the perinatal period” (48 percent) 

and “congenital malformations and chromosomal abnormalities” (28 percent), which are included in “Other.”

Note: Data refer to 25 European Union countries. 

Source: Adapted from European Commission, 2007, based on Eurostat mortality statistics. 

Other

External causes of 

injury and poisoning

Cancer1

Diseases of the 

digestive system

Diseases of the 

respiratory system

Diseases of the 

circulatory system

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Percent

Age group
46 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Persistent Concern 

About Lung Cancer

Although deaths from CVDs 

are expected to remain most 

prominent in the future (see 

Sonnenschein and Brody [2005] for 

projections of proportionate mortality in the United States), a major 

concern of health practitioners in 

the industrialized world is the rise 

in lung cancer among older women 

as a result of increased tobacco use 

since World War II. Estimates for 

the early 1990s (Murray and Lopez, 

1996) suggested that lung cancer 

was responsible for 30 percent of 

all cancer deaths to males in developed countries and 12 percent 

of all cancer deaths to females. 

Proportions for the 60-and-over 

population were virtually identical. More recent data show that 

male death rates from lung cancer 

appear to have peaked and are 

now falling in some countries and 

stabilizing in many others, perhaps portending future declines. 

Conversely, female death rates 

from lung cancer have been rising 

rapidly since 1950, in proportion 

to the large increases in cigarette 

consumption that began several 

decades ago. By 2001, lung cancer 

had become the third leading 

cause of death overall in developed 

countries (Lopez et al., 2006). In 

the United States, male death rates 

from lung cancer (including cancer of the trachea and bronchus) 

peaked around 1990, while female 

death rates rose during the period 

1950–2003 (National Center for 

Health Statistics, 2006). Lung cancer remains the preeminent cause 

of cancer death in Europe (Ferlay et 

al., 2007). In some countries, the 

estimated lifetime risk for men having lung cancer exceeds 10 percent 

(Figure 4-11).

Figure 4-11. 

Lifetime Risk of Lung Cancer in 13 European Countries 

by Sex: Circa 2006 

(In percent)

Sweden

Finland

United Kingdom

Germany

Netherlands 

Denmark

France

Romania

Italy

Belgium

Russia

Poland

Hungary

Note: Data refer to cumulative lifetime risk during the ages 0 to 74. 

Source: Adapted from Ferlay et al., 2007.

Male

Female

2.9

3.6

1.5

5.2

4.0

6.4

2.2

7.0

3.5

7.6

5.6

7.6

1.5

8.2

1.6

8.9

1.7

9.8

2.6

10.6

1.3

10.7

3.0

11.3

4.2

12.5
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 47

Suicide rates in 30 countries with relatively reliable 

data (Table 4-2) are consistently higher among men 

than women in all age groups, including ages 65 and 

over. This gender difference is seen in societies as 

disparate as Singapore, Cuba, Israel, and Bulgaria. 

Suicide rates are most likely to increase with age 

among men and are highest at ages 75 and over 

in two-thirds of the countries shown in Table 4-2. 

Suicide rates for women also tend to rise with age, 

although peak rates for women occur before age 75 

in about half of the countries shown. The gender 

difference may be surprising in view of two considerations: (1) the average woman outlives her spouse, 

and many studies have shown that married elders 

are happier than nonmarried elders (see Chapter 6); 

and (2) older women have higher rates of disability 

than do older men (see Chapter 5). These factors 

suggest that older women would have higher rates 

of suicide than older men, but this is not the case.

Among the 30 countries examined, South Korea and 

Hungary had the highest suicide rates for both older 

men and women. The reported rate for South Korean 

men aged 75 and over is nearly four times higher 

than the rate in Japan and 20 times higher than that 

in Ireland. Cuba, Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, Russia, 

and Ukraine have comparatively high rates among 

their 65-and-over male populations, while Hong 

Box 4-2.

Suicide Rates Much Higher Among Older Men Than Women

Table 4-2.

Suicide Rates for Selected Age Groups in 30 Countries: Circa 2004

(Deaths per 100,000 population)

Country

Year

Male Female

15 to 24

years

45 to 54

years

65 to 74

years

75 years

and over

15 to 24

years

45 to 54

years

65 to 74

years

75 years

and over

Europe

Bulgaria .... .................. 2004 7 25 29 69 2 9 16 18

Denmark ... .................. 2001 13 28 25 59 2 10 17 20

Finland.... ................... 2004 33 43 44 40 10 18 9 8

France .... ................... 2003 13 41 38 76 4 16 13 15

Germany ... .................. 2004 11 26 28 56 3 8 10 17

Hungary.... .................. 2003 14 78 79 110 3 17 20 36

Ireland .... ................... 2005 20 26 16932 5 3

Italy.......................... 2002 7 12 19 32 2 4 5 6

Netherlands ...... ............ 2004 7 21 12 23 3 11 5 9

Norway ... ................... 2004 20 23 24 22 7 13 8 6

Poland ... .................... 2004 21 48 33 3138 7 6

Portugal... ................... 2003 6 20 33 69 2 5 8 13

Russia ..... .................. 2004 47 88 81 89 8 12 15 26

Switzerland ... ................ 2004 15 33 34 79 5 14 20 30

Ukraine ... ................... 2004 25 70 58 67 3 9 11 18

United Kingdom .... ........... 2004 8 16 9 13264 4

Other Countries/Areas

Australia ... .................. 2003 17 21 19 22 4 7 5 3

Canada ... ................... 2002 18 28 19 24583 3

Chile...... ................... 2003 17 25 31 37443 4

Cuba . . . ..................... 2004 8 31 45 76 3 10 15 13

Hong Kong ...... ............. 2004 15 29 45 72 9 12 27 35

Israel . ....................... 2003 11 18 19 23146 6

Japan........................ 2004 17 57 42 46 8 13 18 23

Kazakhstan... ................ 2003 45 75 70 61 11 11 16 23

New Zealand ..... ............ 2000 30 20 21 21652 3

Panama... ................... 2003 17 17 22 31 4 2 2 0

Singapore .... ................ 2003 12 15 19 58 9 9 17 30

South Korea ... ............... 2004 11 50 105 174 8 16 36 79

Thailand... ................... 2002 14 14 17 16 4 6 5 5

United States ..... ............ 2002 17 24 25 41 3 7 4 4

Source: World Health Organization, <www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/suicide/country_reports/en/>, accessed on August 8, 2007.
48 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Switzerland have comparatively high rates among older women. Levels 

for older men in the United States are average when 

compared with other countries, whereas the U.S. 

rate for women aged 65 and over is relatively low. 

Although some of these international differentials 

may be artificial due to variation in the reporting 

and/or diagnosis of suicide, their sheer magnitude 

suggests that real international differences do exist.

Data from the World Health Organization for the past 

35 to 40 years do not show any clear trend in suicide 

rates for the older population in the world’s more 

developed countries. Few nations have experienced 

the very gradual rise seen in France until the mid1980s or the downward tendency observed in the 

United Kingdom. More often, national rates have 

fluctuated with no perceptible pattern. The unpredictability of suicide trends is perhaps best illustrated by the case of the Netherlands. Dutch society 

is widely recognized as being more tolerant of voluntary euthanasia than are other Western societies, 

and one might think it would also have higher rates 

of recorded suicide. However, the country’s rates are 

lower than the industrialized-country average for 

most age groups, including older people, and have 

varied little during the past 30 years.

Box 4-2.

Suicide Rates Much Higher Among Older Men Than Women—Con.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 49

Many societies worldwide have 

experienced a change from conditions of high fertility and high 

mortality to low fertility and low 

mortality, a process widely known 

as demographic transition. Related 

to this trend is “epidemiologic 

transition,” a phrase first used in the 

early 1970s (Omran, 1971) to refer 

to a long-term change in leading 

causes of death, from infectious and 

acute to chronic and degenerative. 

In the typical demographic transition described in Box 3-1, initial 

mortality declines result primarily 

from the control of infectious and 

parasitic diseases at very young 

ages. As children survive and grow, 

they are increasingly exposed to 

risk factors associated with chronic 

diseases and accidents. When fertility declines and populations begin 

to age, the preeminent causes of 

death shift from those associated 

with infant and childhood mortality 

to those associated with older age. 

Eventually, the increase in the number and proportion of older adults 

shifts national morbidity profiles 

toward a greater incidence of 

chronic and degenerative diseases.1

Epidemiological

Transition Shifts

the Survival Curve

Figure 5-1, which shows survival 

curves for U.S. White females 

in 1901 and 2003, illustrates a 

general pattern seen in developed 

1 As with the concept of demographic 

transition, there are permutations and counterexamples of epidemiological transition, 

now sometimes referred to as health transition (Salomon and Murray, 2002; Vallin and 

Mesle, 2004; and Riley, 2005).

CHAPTER 5.

Health and Disability

Figure 5-1. 

Survival Curve for U.S. White Females: 1901 and 2003

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1936; and Arias, 2006. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent surviving

1901

2003

Age
50 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

countries. The curve for 1901 

represents the early stages of the 

epidemiological transition when 

the level of infant mortality is high; 

mortality is considerable through 

the middle years; and mortality increases at the later ages. 

Female life expectancy at birth was 

approximately 50 years, and the 

median age at death (the age at 

which 50 percent of females subject to the mortality risks of 1901 

could expect to survive) was about 

60 years. By 2003, the survival 

curve had shifted substantially. 

Average female life expectancy had 

risen to 80 years, and the median 

age at death was above 83 years. 

The proportion surviving is now 

quite high at all ages up to age 

50, and the survival curve at older 

ages is approaching a more rectangular shape as a result of relatively 

higher chronic-disease mortality at 

older ages. 

Figure 5-2. 

Proportion of All Deaths Occurring at Age 65 or Over in

29 Countries/Areas: Circa 2001

(In percent) 

Canada

United States

Uruguay

Bermuda

Barbados

Cuba

Guadeloupe

Argentina

Puerto Rico

Dominica

Chile

St. Lucia

Costa Rica

Virgin Islands (US)

Trinidad & Tobago

Panama

Mexico

Paraguay

Peru

Brazil

El Salvador

Ecuador

Belize

Dominican Republic

Colombia

Venezuela

Nicaragua

French Guiana

Haiti

Source: Pan American Health Organization, 2007.

28

38

39

44

44

44

46

48

48

49

49

50

51

54

55

57

59

60

66

67

67

68

68

70

71

73

73

74

78
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 51

Developing-Country

Transition Most

Apparent in 

Latin America

Developing countries are in various 

stages of epidemiological transition. Aggregate regional change has 

been most evident in Latin America 

and the Caribbean, where the latest data show that cardiovascular 

diseases (CVDs) were the leading 

cause of death in 26 of 32 countries 

and areas (Pan American Health 

Organization, 2007). Most deaths 

from chronic and degenerative ailments occur at relatively old ages. 

Comparative data circa 2001 for the 

Western Hemisphere (Figure 5-2) 

show that half or more of all deaths 

in a majority of nations occur at 

ages 65 and over.

The pace of epidemiological 

change in some eastern and southeastern Asian nations has been 

especially rapid. In the case of 

Singapore, where life expectancy at 

birth rose 30 years in little over a 

generation (from 40 years in 1948 

to 70 years in the late 1970s), the 

share of cardiovascular deaths rose 

from 5 percent to 32 percent of all 

deaths, while deaths due to infectious diseases declined from 40 

percent to 12 percent. Data from 

Taiwan (Table 5-1) exemplify the 

typical shift in causes of death; the 

infectious and parasitic diseases 

that dominated Taiwanese mortality in the mid-1950s have given 

way to chronic and degenerative 

diseases. By 1976, cerebrovascular 

disease and cancers had become 

the leading causes of death. The 

situation in 2005 was similar to 

that in 1976, except that the relative importance of diabetes rose 

substantially, tuberculosis was no 

longer a major killer, and suicide 

became a prominent concern. 

Although time series data for 

much of the remainder of Asia and 

for Africa are lacking, scattered 

evidence suggests the increasing 

importance of chronic disease patterns in adult populations.

Is a Longer Life

a Better Life?

Chapter 4 pointed out that continual increases in life expectancy, 

especially at older ages, have been 

the norm in most countries worldwide. As people live longer, the 

quality of that longer life becomes 

a central issue for both personal 

and social well-being. Are individuals living healthier as well as longer 

lives, or are ill health and disabilities characteristic of older years? 

In aging societies, the answer to 

this question will affect national 

health systems, retirement, and the 

demand for long-term care. 

Research into patterns of change 

in mortality, sickness, and disability has suggested that these 

three factors do not necessarily 

evolve in a similar fashion. A fourcountry study (Riley, 1990) noted 

that in Japan, the United States, 

and Britain, mortality decreased 

and sickness (morbidity) increased, 

while in Hungary, mortality 

increased and sickness decreased.2

Discrepancies between the trends in 

mortality, morbidity, and disability 

have generated competing theories 

of health change, several of which 

may be characterized as the following: a pandemic of chronic disease 

and disability (Gruenberg, 1977; 

and Kramer, 1980); the compression 

of morbidity into a short period 

before death (Fries, 1990); dynamic 

equilibrium (Manton, 1982); and the 

postponement of all morbid events 

to very old ages (Strehler, 1975). 

The World Health Organization 

has proposed a general model of 

health transition that distinguishes 

between total survival, disabilityfree survival, and survival without 

2 The author’s broader review of historical data concludes that the relationship 

between falling sick and dying from sickness has shifted over time, and that the link 

between health risks and death has been 

unstable across time. The risk of being sick 

has increased as a result of various factors—

among them earlier and better detection of 

sickness, declining mortality, and rising real 

income. The implication is that protracted sickness is a by-product of these achievements.

Table 5-1.

Rank Order of the Ten Leading Causes of Death in Taiwan: 1956, 1976, 1996, and 2005

Rank 1956 1976 1996 2005

1 GDEC1 Cerebrovascular disease Malignant neoplasms Malignant neoplasms

2 Pneumonia Malignant neoplasms Cerebrovascular disease Cerebrovascular disease

3 Tuberculosis Accidents Accidents Heart disease

4 Perinatal conditions Heart disease Heart disease Diabetes mellitus

5 Vascular lesions of CNS2 Pneumonia Diabetes mellitus Accidents

6 Heart disease Tuberculosis Cirrhosis/chronic liver disease Pneumonia

7 Malignant neoplasms Cirrhosis/chronic liver disease Nephritis/nephrosis Cirrhosis/chronic liver disease

8 Nephritis/nephrosis Bronchitis3 Pneumonia Nephritis/nephrosis

9 Bronchitis Hypertensive disease Hypertensive disease Suicide

10 Stomach/duodenum ulcer Nephritis/nephrosis ulcer Bronchitis3 Hypertensive disease

1 GDEC includes gastritis, duodenitis, enteritis, and colitis (except diarrhea of newborns). 2 CNS refers to the central nervous system. 3 The bronchitis category for 1976 and 1996 includes emphysema and asthma.

Source: Taiwan Department of Health.
52 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

disabling chronic disease. In other 

words, it is desirable to disaggregate life expectancy into different 

health states to better understand 

the relative health of populations. 

Thus, a general survival curve, such 

as that in Figure 5-1, can be partitioned into different categories that 

include overall survival, survival 

without disability, and survival 

without disease. 

Crossnational

Assessment of

Health Expectancy

Remains Elusive

Since the early 1970s, research has 

been moving toward the development of health indexes that take 

into account not only mortality 

but also various gradations of ill 

health (e.g., Robine et al., 2003). 

“Health expectancy” has become a 

generic term for a class of population indicators that estimate the 

average time that someone could 

expect to live in various states 

of health (Mathers, 2002). Health 

expectancy can be measured in 

various ways; for example, years 

in good health, years free from disability, or years free from specific 

diseases. Healthy life expectancy 

is perhaps the most commonly 

used term, and most estimates of 

healthy life expectancy are derived 

from calculations of disability-free 

life expectancy using a methodology pioneered by Sullivan (1971). 

This methodology employs crosssectional prevalence data but may 

produce results that underestimate 

temporal trends in a given population. Recognizing that these earlier 

computational approaches could 

not capture the full dynamic nature 

of disability, multistate models 

have been developed to incorporate 

processes, such as recovery and 

rehabilitation, into the calculations 

(Khoman and Weale, 2007). These 

latter models, however, require 

longitudinal data that currently are 

unavailable or still being developed 

in most nations. 

As of 2008, it remains impossible 

to strictly compare estimates of 

health expectancy among nations 

due to different computational 

methods and differences in concepts and definitions that define 

the basic data. Important distinctions between impairments, disabilities, and handicaps can lead 

to different measures of health 

status. Because the term “disability” 

is defined in many ways, national 

estimates of disability may vary 

enormously. The most commonly 

used measurement tools are scales 

that assess the ability of individuals to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) such as eating, toileting, 

and ambulation, as well as instrumental activities of daily living 

(IADLs) such as shopping and using 

transportation. These measures 

originated in industrialized societies where debate has centered 

on long-term care systems and 

individuals’ ability to function in 

everyday life.3

Some efforts have attempted to 

distill data from various national 

studies into reasonably comparable 

composites. A review of trend data 

from the latter part of the twentieth century in nine developed 

countries plus Taiwan suggested 

that disability generally was declining at older ages (Waidmann and 

Manton, 1998), though more recent 

information from Taiwan suggests 

3 ADL measures vary along several dimensions, including the number of activities 

considered and the degree of independence 

in performing physical activities. ADLs do 

not cover all aspects of disability, however, 

and are not sufficient by themselves to 

estimate the need for long-term care. Some 

older people have cognitive impairments not 

measured by ADL limitations, which may or 

may not be captured by IADL measures. Many 

questions also arise regarding the validity and 

applicability of such measures in different 

cultural settings.

the opposite pattern (Population 

Council, 2003). Researchers began 

to disaggregate disability into 

“more severe” and “less severe” 

categories, and the consensus in 

developed countries was that the 

overall decline in disability was 

primarily the result of declines in 

the more-severe forms (Robine and 

Romieu, 1998), as measured by limitations in ADLs. Changes in light or 

moderate disability, often measured with regard to IADLs rather 

than ADLs, were mixed (Jacobzone, 

Cambois, and Robine, 1999).

A more recent analysis (Lafortune 

et al., 2007) focused specifically 

on trends in severe disability, 

defined as having one or more 

limitations in basic ADLs. This 

study examined trend data up to 

2005 for people aged 65 and over 

in 12 Organisation for Economic 

Co-Operation and Development 

(OECD) countries. The conclusion 

was less optimistic than the earlier 

picture—a distinct decline in severe 

disability among older people was 

seen in only 5 of the 12 countries (Denmark, Finland, Italy, the 

Netherlands, and the United States) 

(see Box 5-1 for more information 

on the United States). Data from 

Australia and Canada indicated a 

stable rate, while Belgium, Japan, 

and Sweden reported an increasing rate of severe disability at ages 

65 and over. Data from different 

national surveys within France and 

the United Kingdom gave inconsistent results and did not allow a 

determination of trend.4

4 Several factors other than actual 

increases in chronic disease incidence may 

contribute to reported declines in healthy 

life expectancy, including increased survival 

of chronically ill individuals due to improvements in medical care, earlier diagnosis of 

chronic diseases, greater social awareness of 

disease and disability, earlier adjustment to 

chronic conditions due to improved pension 

and health care/delivery systems, and rising 

expectations of what constitutes good health 

or normal functioning.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 53

Mounting evidence suggests that disability rates in 

later life have been declining in the United States. 

Data from six rounds of the U.S. National Long Term 

Care Survey demonstrate that the disability rate 

among people aged 65 and over declined over a 

23-year period (Manton, Gu, and Lamb, 2006) (Figure 

5-3). At least five other U.S. surveys, while varying in 

content and nature (both cross-sectional and longitudinal), have yielded findings that support a temporal 

decline. Most recently, an examination of data from 

1997–2004 from the U.S. National Health Interview 

Survey found declines in the percentage of older 

people reporting disability (Freedman et al., 2007). 

Changes in the prevalence of heart and circulatory 

conditions and visual limitations played a major role 

in this decline, although it appeared that increases in 

obesity have had a countervailing effect. Other positive factors include increased use of assistive technologies and changes in socioeconomic characteristics, 

such as higher educational attainment and declines in 

poverty (Schoeni, Freedman, and Martin, 2008).

Figure 5-3. 

Chronic Disability Decline in the United States: 1982 to 2005 

(Percent of older people in each category)

1

 “3+ ADL” refers to difficulty with three or more basic activities of daily living (ADLs), such as eating, toileting, dressing,

bathing, and ambulation. 

2

 “1–2 ADL” refers to difficulties with one or two of these items. 3

 “IADL only” refers to difficulty with one or more instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), such as preparing meals, 

managing money, shopping, performing housework, and using a telephone. 4

 “Institution” refers primarily to nursing homes.

Note: Data refer to the Medicare-enrolled population aged 65 and over.

Source: Manton, Gu, and Lamb, 2006. 

Institution4

Nondisabled

3+ ADL1

1–2 ADL2

1982 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004/05

IADL only3

73.5 73.8 75.2 76.8

78.8 81.0

7.5 7.0 6.9 6.3 4.9 4.0 5.7 6.0 4.5 4.4 3.3 2.4

6.8 6.9 6.6 6.1 6.3 5.6

6.4 6.3 6.8 6.3 6.7 7.0

Box 5-1. 

Disability Decline in the United States
54 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Prevalence of

Chronic Conditions

Is Increasing While

Disability Is Decreasing

in Developed Countries

Considering overall (light, moderate, and severe) disability, it 

appears that an increase in chronic 

health conditions is accompanied 

by a decrease in reported disability. The prevalence of five chronic 

diseases and risk factors was, 

with a couple of exceptions, seen 

to increase recently in each of the 

countries in Table 5-2 (Lafortune et 

al., 2007). This finding agrees with 

a separate analysis of U.S. survey 

data (Freedman et al., 2007) that 

notes a pattern of rising prevalence 

of chronic conditions accompanied by declines in the share of 

respondents who report disability 

related to those conditions. Parker 

and Thorslund (2007) also conclude that trends in disease and 

functional limitation have taken 

different directions, implying an 

increased need for rehabilitative 

and assistive technologies. 

Female Advantage

in Life Expectancy

Partially Offset by

Disability

The previous chapter documented 

the near-universal gender gap in 

life expectancy in favor of women. 

Data on health expectancies around 

the world indicate that a larger percentage of women than men report 

being disabled. Women acquire 

more co-morbid conditions as a 

result of living longer (Robine and 

Jagger, 2005). Data from the Survey 

on Health, Well-Being and Aging of 

older adults in Latin America and 

the Caribbean reveal that 3 out of 

every 4 women reported suffering from at least 1 of 3 disabling 

conditions: arthritis, incontinence, 

and poor vision, with the latter 

contributing to falls, hip fractures, 

and depression (Pan American 

Health Organization, 2007). More 

women than men who reach older 

age can expect to spend a greater 

proportion of their remaining 

years in a severely disabled state. 

Several possible explanations of 

this difference have been proposed, including differential use of 

institutional care, higher rates of 

disabling diseases (e.g., depression 

and arthritis), reporting biases, and 

physiological differences (Cambois, 

Desquelles, and Ravaud, 2003; and 

Newman and Brach, 2001). 

Table 5-2.

Average Annual Growth Rate in the Prevalence of Selected Conditions Among People

Aged 65 and Over: Selected Periods, 1980 to 2005

Country Period

covered Arthritis

Heart

problem Diabetes Hypertension Obesity

Australia ....................... .......... 1998–2003 0.3 0.9 6.8 3.3 (NA)

Belgium ........... ....................... 1997–2004 0.1 0.3 5.1 3.2 1.1

Canada ........... ....................... 1996–2003 1.6 3.0 3.7 3.9 1

2.9

Denmark ........... ...................... 1987–2005 (NA) (NA) 3.3 (NA) 1.6

Finland................................... 1980–2000 –0.6 (NA) 0.4 0.7 1.4

Italy...................................... 1991–2000 2.3 1.1 0.6 6.3 3.0

Japan........... ......................... 1989–2004 1.4 2.4 5.3 1.0 (NA)

Netherlands ................. ............. 1990–2000 1.8 3.0 1.2 1.8 3.8

Sweden ........................ .......... 1980–2004 (NA) (NA) 0.9 0.9 2.0

United Kingdom .............. ............. 1994–2003 (NA) – 7.4 (NA) 3.2

United States ............................. 1992–2002 0.6 –0.3 2.2 1.5 3.5

(NA) Not available.

– Represents or rounds to zero.

1 The trend for obesity in Canada refers to ages 75 and over.

Source: Lafortune et al., 2007.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 55

Diverse studies have identified a number of socioeconomic factors that affect health and longevity. 

Education is perhaps the most widely studied variable. Thirty-five years ago, Kitigawa and Hauser 

(1973) observed that people with higher education 

tend to live longer. In 2008, researchers demonstrated 

that life expectancy for better-educated people in 

the United States rose by about 3 years during the 

period 1981–2000, compared with half a year for 

less-educated people (Meara, Richards, and Cutler, 

2008). Noticeable differences in cause-specific mortality among middle-aged and older women and men 

by educational level have been observed in eight 

European populations (Huisman et al., 2005). Studies 

in the United States and Canada have found that level 

of education is one of the few determinants consistently associated with maintaining good health in middle age and beyond (Martel et al., 2005; and Lafortune 

et al., 2007), and increased levels of education have 

been identified as a potential factor influencing disability decline (Freedman and Martin, 1999). 

Income is another correlate of health. Low-income 

people aged 55 to 84 in the United States are more 

likely than wealthier older adults to feel limited in 

basic physical activities, such as climbing stairs 

and lifting objects (Minkler, Fuller-Thomson, and 

Guralnik, 2006). Cohort studies of British civil servants have demonstrated the importance of social 

class and occupational grade—people from lower 

grades age faster in terms of a quicker deterioration in physical health compared with workers from 

higher grades (Chandola et al., 2007). Being married encourages healthier behaviors in many adults, 

including people in old age, relative to other marital 

statuses, and the effects may be larger for older men 

than for older women (Schone and Weinick, 1998).

The socioeconomic factors mentioned above are, to 

some extent, interrelated, and current analyses are 

interested in assessing the interactions of more than 

one variable with an individual’s health. A recent 

Danish study, for example, found that the social 

gap in mortality levels widened during the past 25 

years, especially for women with low education 

levels (Bronnum-Hansen and Baadsgaard, 2007). As 

more studies throughout the world collect longitudinal data, researchers increasingly will be able to 

understand multivariable effects over time. Survey 

data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in 

the United States show not only a strong correlation 

between health and wealth but an added “marriage 

correlation” as well (U.S. National Institute on Aging, 

2007). Data from the initial (1992) survey wave 

indicated that average household wealth for households where both partners were in excellent health 

was more than ten times higher than for households 

where both partners were in poor health (Willis, 

1999). Such findings might have implications for 

assessing the future health status of older populations. For example, if marriage equates with better 

health among older individuals, do rising rates of 

divorce and increased proportions of never-married 

individuals portend poorer average health? And what 

of other life dimensions? A considerable amount of 

current research is focused on not only the social but 

also the psychological and biological influences on 

health (e.g., Weinstein, Vaupel, and Wachter, 2007). 

Box 5-2.

Socioeconomic Correlates of Mortality and Disability
56 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Disability Prevalence

Is Likely to Increase in 

Developing Countries

The number of disabled people in 

most developing countries seems 

certain to increase as a correlate 

of population growth. Figure 5-4 

illustrates the age structure of 

disability in the Philippines as 

measured in the 2000 population 

census.5 The highest proportions 

of people with disabilities generally 

were seen in the older age groups. 

The median age of people with 

disability was 49 years, compared 

with an overall median population 

5 Censuses are not the best data collection instruments to measure disability 

since census questions tend to elicit “yes/

no” responses, and the census process does 

not allow in-depth probing of respondents’ 

health statuses. Still, census data can provide 

a broad picture of disability by age and sex at 

the population level.

age of 21 years. Even if disability 

rates were to decline somewhat 

over time, the aging of the Filipino 

population implies increasing numbers of disabled people. In view 

of declining fertility and changing 

family structures (see Chapter 7), 

families in developing countries 

likely will be challenged to provide 

the future service and care requirements of older people.

Figure 5-4.

Age and Sex Structure of Disability in the Philippines: 2005

Percent

Note: Each bar represents the number of disabled people in that age/sex group expressed as a percent of all disabled people.

Source: Census data provided by the Philippines National Statistics Office.

012345

Under 1

1-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

54321 0

Male Age Female
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 57

Burden of

Noncommunicable

Disease Is Growing

Two decades ago, the World Health 

Organization noted a distinction 

in prominent causes of disability 

between developed and developing 

countries. In the latter, disability 

stemmed primarily from malnutrition, communicable diseases, 

accidents, and congenital conditions. In industrialized countries, 

disability resulted largely from the 

chronic diseases discussed earlier—CVD, arthritis, mental illness, 

and metabolic disorders—as well 

as accidents and the consequences 

of drug and alcohol abuse. As 

economies in developing countries 

expand and the demographic and 

epidemiological pictures change, 

the nature and prevalence of various disabilities may also change.

A major ongoing effort to understand and predict the effect of 

epidemiological change is the 

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 

Project, currently spearheaded by 

the World Health Organization, the 

World Bank, and the U.S. National 

Institutes of Health. Using a computational concept known as 

disability-adjusted life years, this 

project attempts to measure global, 

regional, and country-specific 

disease burdens in a baseline year, 

and to project such burdens into 

the future. Table 5-3 contrasts 

the estimated rank order of disease burden for the ten leading 

disease categories in high-income 

countries and in low- and middleincome countries as of 2001. In 

high-income countries, most of the 

disease burden flows from chronic 

conditions, such as CVDs and neuropsychiatric disorders. In low- and 

middle-income nations, the most 

important factors in disability burden at the turn of the twenty-first 

century were problems related to 

maternity and infant survival and 

to respiratory infections (Lopez et 

al., 2006).

During the next two to three 

decades, experts expect a major 

shift in disease burden such that 

noncommunicable diseases will no 

longer be seen primarily as diseases 

of affluent societies (Adeyi, Smith, 

and Robles, 2007). The GBD project 

estimated that in 2002, noncommunicable diseases accounted 

for 85 percent of the burden of 

disease in high-income countries, 

compared with 44 percent in 

low- and middle-income countries. Noncommunicable diseases 

already account for as much of 

the burden of disease in low- and 

middle-income countries as all communicable diseases, maternal and 

perinatal conditions, and nutritional 

deficiencies combined (Figure 5-5). 

By 2030, according to projections, 

the share of the burden attributed 

to noncommunicable diseases in 

low- and middle-income countries 

will exceed one-half, while the 

share attributed to communicable 

diseases will fall to one-third. 

Noncommunicable diseases already 

account for more than 87 percent 

of the burden for the 60-and-over 

population in low-, middle-, and 

high-income countries. The critical 

issue for low- and middle-income 

countries is how to mobilize and 

allocate resources to address 

chronic diseases as well as the relatively high prevalence of communicable diseases.

Table 5-3.

Rank Order of Disease Burden in High-Income Versus Lowand Middle-Income Countries: 2001

(Disease burden measured in disability-adjusted life years)

Rank

Disease or injury

High-income countries Low- and middle-income countries

1 Ischemic heart disease Perinatal conditions

2 Cerebrovascular disease Lower respiratory infections

3 Unipolar depressive disorders Ischemic heart disease

4 Alzheimer and other dementias HIV/AIDS

5 Lung, trachea, and bronchus cancers Cerebrovascular disease

6 Hearing loss Diarrhoeal diseases

7 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Unipolar depressive disorders

8 Diabetes mellitus Malaria

9 Alcohol use disorders Tuberculosis

10 Osteoarthritis Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Source: Lopez et al., 2006.
58 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Obesity May

Threaten Improvements

in Life Expectancy

The rise in the number of people 

who are overweight or obese has 

been described as a global pandemic.6 An estimated 300 million 

6 Obesity is defined as “weight that is dangerously excess because of its high proportion 

of body fat relative to lean body mass” (OECD, 

2006b). The most common measure of obesity 

is the body mass index (BMI), calculated as a 

person’s weight in kilograms divided by his or 

her height in meters squared. The standard 

adults worldwide are obese and 

a majority are estimated to live in 

developed countries (World Health 

Organization, 2000). The average 

level of obesity in OECD countries 

has risen by 8 percent during the 

last two decades (Bleich et al., 

BMI categories are obese (BMI of 30 or higher), 

overweight (25 to 29.9), normal (18.5 to 24.9), 

and underweight (less than 18.5). It should 

be noted that BMI does not distinguish body 

fat from bone and muscle mass, leading some 

researchers to argue for alternate measures 

(Burkhauser and Cawley, 2008). 

2007). It seems clear that, over 

such a relatively short period of 

time, genetic factors are not the 

cause of rising obesity. Rather, 

increased average weight is a function of how much people eat, the 

types of foods consumed (e.g., 

more energy-dense, nutrient-deficient foods), and lifestyle changes 

related to physical and sedentary 

activities. Research further suggests 

that the biological and behavioral 

Figure 5-5. 

The Increasing Burden of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases on Countries 

by Income Level: 2002 and 2030 

Source: Lopez et al., 2006.

2002 2030

2002 2030

Low- and middle-income countries

High-income countries

Communicable, 

maternal, 

perinatal, 

and 

nutritional 

conditions

44%

Communicable, 

maternal, 

perinatal, 

and 

nutritional 

conditions

32%

Communicable, 

maternal, 

perinatal, 

and 

nutritional 

conditions

6%

Communicable, 

maternal, 

perinatal, 

and 

nutritional 

conditions

3%

Noncommunicable

diseases

44%

Noncommunicable

diseases

85%

Noncommunicable

diseases

54%

Noncommunicable

diseases

89%

Injuries 12% Injuries 14%

Injuries 9% Injuries 7%
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 59

traits of obesity are influenced 

by social networks and social ties 

(Christakis and Fowler, 2007). 

Figure 5-6 presents a snapshot of 

the proportions overweight and 

obese for people aged 50 and over 

in 2004 in ten Western European 

countries that participate in the 

Survey of Health, Ageing and 

Retirement in Europe (SHARE). 

When the two measures are combined, 59 percent to 71 percent of 

men aged 50 and over are overweight or obese in each country. 

Women in all the countries are less 

likely than men to be overweight or 

obese, with a range of 41 percent 

to 67 percent. The highest combined levels for men and women 

are seen in Greece and Spain. 

While the combined levels for older 

women are lower than for older 

men, women tend to have higher 

levels of obesity.

There has been considerable 

speculation about the social impact 

of rising levels of obesity. In terms 

of mortality, it has been suggested 

that current life expectancy in 

the United States would be higher 

if overweight individuals were 

instead at their “ideal” weight. 

Obesity’s tendency to reduce 

longevity means that the steady 

rise in U.S. life expectancy over 

the last two centuries could soon 

cease (Olshansky et al., 2005).7

An analysis of the United States 

and Mexico concludes that among 

people aged 60 and over, larger 

losses in life expectancy associated with excess body fat appear 

among older people in Mexico than 

in the United States (Monteverde 

et al., 2007). On the other hand, 

some would argue that there is 

no consensus about the long-term 

consequences of obesity for overall 

mortality (Kramarow et al., 2007; 

and Preston, 2005). There seems to 

be more agreement that rising levels of obesity among older people 

will impact health and health care 

expenditures, given studies that 

show that the obese are more likely 

than the nonobese to have and 

report certain chronic conditions 

and that the former have higher 

levels of health care spending 

(OECD, 2006c). 

7 Factors other than obesity per se may 

also be at work. A study of mortality during 

the period 1996–2005 in the United States 

found that a large waist circumference was 

associated with an approximately 25 percent 

increase in mortality, even after adjustment 

for BMI (Koster et al., 2008).

Figure 5-6. 

Percent Overweight and Obese Among Men and 

Women Aged 50 and Over in Ten 

European Countries: 2004

Obese, BMI1 Overweight, BMI > 30 1 25 to 29.9

Switzerland

France

Denmark

Sweden

Austria

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

Spain

Greece

Denmark

Switzerland

Sweden

France

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Germany

Austria

Greece

1 BMI is body mass index.

Source: Andreyeva, Michaud, and van Soest, 2005. 

Men

Women

54.3 17.0

51.9 17.9

50.9 16.9

50.1 15.2

49.9 20.2

48.5 13.1

48.2 15.0

47.1 12.8

46.6 13.0

45.3 14.1

41.9 22.0

41.6 25.5

37.7 17.4

36.4 17.1

36.1 16.6

35.3 19.7

33.8 14.4

30.9 13.2

29.9 15.0

29.2 12.1
60 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Early-Life Conditions

Affect Adult Health

The last two decades have seen 

a growing body of research that 

examines adult health from a lifecourse perspective. This research 

increasingly suggests that many 

negative health conditions in adulthood stem from risks established 

early in life (Gluckman and Hanson, 

2004; Crimmins, 2005; and Case 

and Paxson, 2008). Some (notably, Barker, 2001) argue that adult 

health has a fetal origin whereby 

nourishment in utero and during 

infancy has a direct bearing on 

the development of risk factors 

for adulthood diseases (especially 

CVDs). Early malnutrition in Latin 

America is highly correlated with 

self-reported diabetes, and the 

experience of rheumatic heart 

fever is a strong predictor of adult 

heart disease (Palloni et al., 2006). 

Childhood infections may have longterm effects on adult mortality, and 

slow growth and lack of emotional 

support in prenatal life and early 

childhood reduce physical, cognitive, and emotional functioning in 

later years (Wilkinson and Marmot, 

2003). Data on China’s oldest old 

show that people who rarely or 

never suffered from serious childhood illnesses, or who received adequate medical care during sickness 

in childhood, had a greatly reduced 

risk of being cognitively impaired or 

ADL-impaired at ages 80 and over 

(Zeng, Gu, and Land, 2007). 

Demonstrating that childhood 

conditions affect adult development and health is complicated 

because separating cohort effects 

from period effects (e.g., changing living conditions) is empirically 

difficult given the temporal and 

data requirements. The improvements in life expectancy at birth 

described in Chapter 4 largely 

are period effects of public health 

and medical advances. One study 

looked at reduced lifetime exposure to infectious diseases and 

other sources of inflammation in 

a nation with excellent historical 

data—Sweden—and concluded 

that reductions in early morbidity 

do have an impact on observed 

increases in life expectancy (Finch 

and Crimmins, 2004). Looking 

crossnationally at data from two 

surveys of older populations—1 in 

7 urban centers in Latin America 

and the Caribbean and 1 in Puerto 

Rico—researchers investigated the 

risk of being disabled according to 

conditions experienced early in life 

(Monteverde, Noronha, and Palloni, 

2007). The birth and development 

of today’s older cohorts occurred 

during times characterized by 

generally poor nutrition and 

exposure to infectious diseases, 

such as typhus, polio, malaria, 

and tuberculosis. In Puerto Rico, 

the probability of being disabled 

among people growing up in poor 

conditions was 60 percent higher 

than among people with better 

childhood socioeconomic levels. 

The corresponding figure among 

the urban centers was 22 percent 

(Figure 5-7). Current research is 

extending the range of causal 

early-life conditions. Currie (2008) 

argues that parental socioeconomic 

status affects child health, which, 

in turn, is related to future educational and labor market outcomes. 

A study in Denmark found that 

mortality rates in later life were 

influenced by features of the macroenvironment around the time of 

Figure 5-7. 

Probability of Being Disabled at Ages 60 and Over

Conditional on Early Childhood Health Conditions 

in Seven Latin American/Caribbean Cities1 and 

in Puerto Rico: Circa 2001 

1

 The seven cities include Bridgetown, Barbados; Buenos Aires, Argentina; 

Havana, Cuba; Mexico City, Mexico; Montevideo, Uruguay; Santiago, Chile; and 

Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Source: Estimated from Monteverde, Noronha, and Palloni, 2007. 

Cities Puerto Rico

Poor health conditions Good health conditions

33.0

37.0

26.0

22.5
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 61

birth, such as the business cycle, 

food price deviations, and weather 

(van den Berg, Doblhammer-Reiter, 

and Christensen, 2008). 

Does Population Aging

Impact Health System

Solvency?

Population aging might be 

expected to increase overall health 

care costs because health expenditures by and for older age groups 

tend to be proportionally higher 

than their population share. This 

could apply especially in nations 

where acute care and institutional 

(long-term care) services are 

widely available. A nine-country 

study in the 1990s found that the 

share of total health expenditure 

attributed to people aged 65 and 

over ranged from 32 percent to 

42 percent, compared with their 

population share of 12 percent 

to 18 percent (OECD, 1997). Per 

capita public health expenditures 

for older people are higher than for 

younger people; in OECD countries, 

there is about a four-fold difference between the 65-and-over and 

the under-65 aggregates (OECD, 

2006c). However, per capita expenditures often level off or decline at 

ages above 80. There also are considerable per capita differences by 

country, which may be attributed 

to variations in program coverage. 

While health expenditures and 

population aging are related in 

OECD nations, the relationship is 

fairly weak (Figure 5-8). A growing number of analyses suggest 

that population aging is not the 

main driver of health care costs. 

Other factors—rising per capita 

incomes, health insurance coverage, new medical technology, 

and workforce demographics 

that affect the unit cost of health 

care—may be more important 

(Reinhardt, 2003; Zweifel, Felder, 

and Werblow, 2004; and Bryant 

and Sonerson, 2006). One analysis 

of 21 OECD countries (White, 2007) 

breaks down the temporal trend 

in health spending per capita into 

three components: real growth 

in gross domestic product (GDP) 

per capita, changes in population 

aging, and an “excess growth” 

Figure 5-8. 

Health Expenditure and Percent Aged 65 and Over in 24 OECD Nations: 2003

Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2006d; and U.S. Census Bureau, International

Data Base, accessed on September 10, 2007.

468 10 12 14 16 18 20

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Total expenditure on health as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP)

United States

Japan

South Korea

Turkey

Percent aged 65 and over

R squared = 0.18
62 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

category above and beyond the 

increase attributable to economic 

growth and population aging. Over 

the period 1970–2002, real growth 

in per capita health care spending 

averaged 4.3 percent in the United 

States and 3.7 percent in the other 

OECD countries (Figure 5-9). About 

2 percentage points of the growth 

stemmed from real growth in GDP, 

while the effect of population aging 

was smaller. The major difference 

between the United States and 

the OECD aggregate is the rate of 

excess growth, calculated as the 

rate of health spending per capita 

minus the rate of real growth in 

GDP per capita minus the rate of 

population aging. Excess growth 

likely is related to the diffusion of 

new health care technologies and 

institutional features of the health 

care financing and delivery system 

(Jenson, 2007). 

Part of the debate over rising health 

care costs focuses on the distribution of expenditures by age. A 

large fraction of health care costs 

associated with advancing age 

are incurred in the year or years 

just prior to death (Lee, 2007; and 

Shugarman et al., 2004). As more 

people survive to increasingly 

older age, the high cost of dying is 

shifted to ever-older ages, which, 

in theory, means that most agespecific costs may decline (Bolnick, 

2004). One contentious issue in 

many societies relates to the nature 

and extent of treatment at very old 

ages. In a review of primarily U.S. 

data, the International Longevity 

Center reports no evidence that 

aggressive care at the end of life is 

increasing nor any indication that 

the cost of dying is growing and 

will overwhelm the health care system (Pan, Chai, and Farber, 2007). 

At the same time, governments 

and international organizations are 

stressing the need for cost-of-illness 

studies on age-related diseases, in 

part to anticipate the likely burden of increasingly prevalent and 

expensive chronic conditions (of 

which Alzheimer’s disease may be 

the most costly).

Figure 5-9. 

Components of Real Growth in Health Care 

Spending per Capita, United States and 20-Nation

OECD Aggregate: 1970 to 2002 

(Average annual percent change) 

1

 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

Note: The rate of excess growth is calculated as the rate of health spending per capita 

minus the rate of real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita minus the 

rate of population aging.

Source: White, 2007. 

OECD United States 1

Excess 

growth 

in 

health care 

spending

Real growth 

in GDP

Population 

aging

1.1

0.5

2.1

2.0

0.3

2.0

3.7

4.3
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 63

Box 5-3.

Middle-Aged Britons Are Notably Healthier 

Than Middle-Aged Americans

Crossnational research using ongoing longitudinal studies in England 

and the United States has revealed that White non-Hispanic middleaged Americans (aged 55 to 64) are not as healthy as their English 

counterparts, and in both countries, lower income and education 

levels are associated with poorer health. Comparable representative 

samples of people aged 55 to 64 from the U.S. Health and Retirement 

Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) 

were divided into three socioeconomic groups based on education 

and income. The samples were limited to White non-Hispanic populations, allowing researchers to control for special issues in different racial or ethnic communities in both countries. The healthiest 

Americans in the study, those in the highest income and education 

levels, had rates of diabetes and heart disease similar to the least 

healthy people in England, those in the lowest income and education 

levels (Banks et al., 2006). 

In addition, the lowest income and education group in each country 

reported the most cases of diabetes, stroke, heart disease and heart 

attacks, and chronic lung disease, while the highest income and 

education groups reported the least. The only disease for which this 

inverse relationship was not true was cancer. Differences between 

the two countries in smoking, obesity, and alcohol use explained 

little of the difference. The researchers noted that the health status 

differences between the United States and England existed despite 

greater U.S. health care expenditures and similar patterns in life 

expectancy between the two countries.

A further study of U.S. health care expenditure levels exploited data 

from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) 

and the HRS, in addition to other survey and secondary information 

(Thorpe, Howard, and Galactionova, 2007). Results for 2004 suggested that disease prevalence and rates of medication treatment 

for people over the age of 50 were much higher in the United States 

than in ten European countries. The researchers noted that part of 

the difference may be related to a greater likelihood of diagnosis and 

treatment in the United States. For instance, the higher diagnosis rate 

for cancer in the United States appears to be a result of more intensive screening. However, higher rates of obesity-related diseases and 

conditions (e.g., high blood pressure) suggest that older Americans 

are less healthy than their European counterparts.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 65

One common characteristic of 

populations throughout the world 

is the preponderance of women at 

older ages. Globally in 2008, there 

are an estimated 62 million more 

women than men aged 65 and 

over. Women are the majority of 

the older population in the majority of countries, and their share of 

the population increases with age. 

This gender imbalance at older 

ages has many implications for 

population and individual aging, 

perhaps the most important of 

which involves marital status and 

living arrangements.

Older Population Sex 

Ratios Very Low in 

Eastern Europe

The sex ratio, defined as the 

number of men per 100 women, 

is a common measure of a population’s gender composition. Ratios 

over 100 indicate more men than 

women, and ratios under 100 

indicate the opposite. The majority of the world’s countries have 

a sex ratio below 100 at ages 65 

and over. This is primarily the 

result of higher male than female 

mortality rates beginning at birth 

and continuing throughout the life 

course, which leaves fewer men 

than women at older ages.

Fewer than two dozen countries 

have a sex ratio higher than 100 

at older ages in 2008. At the other 

end of the spectrum are the very 

low sex ratios found in parts of the 

former Soviet Union and Eastern 

Europe. As of 2008, the world’s 

lowest national sex ratio for the 

older population is 45 in Russia. 

Several other former Soviet republics (e.g., Belarus, Latvia, and 

Estonia) also have low sex ratios, 

as do several countries in South 

America and parts of Africa (Figure 

6-1). The very low sex ratios in 

Eastern Europe derive partly from 

the lingering effects of heavy male 

mortality during World War II but 

more importantly stem from higher 

adult male than female mortality 

due to cardiovascular diseases, 

suicides, and other causes 

(Brainerd, 2001; Mesle and Vallin, 

2002; and Varnik et al., 2001).

In the future, many countries with 

currently low sex ratios are projected to see an increase because 

adult male mortality rates are 

expected to improve faster than 

those of women.1 All Eastern 

European and former Soviet 

Union countries, for example, are 

expected to experience an increase 

in this indicator between 2008 and 

2040. The projected trend in aggregate sex ratios for developed countries is shown in Figure 6-2, with 

ratios increasing for ages 65 to 79 

and 80 and over. The picture for 

developing countries is different. In 

the aggregate, projections suggest 

that there will be no appreciable 

difference between 2008 and 2040 

at ages 65 to 79 and a decline in 

the sex ratio at ages 80 and over. 

1 Sex ratios for four age groups in 2000, 

2020, and 2040 for the 52 study countries 

are presented in Appendix Table B-4.

CHAPTER 6.

Gender Balance, Marital Status, and 

Living Arrangements
66 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008. Figure 6-1. Sex Ratio of the Older Population: 2008 (Men aged 65 and over per 100 women aged 65 and over) Sex ratioLess than 71 71 to 78 79 to 89 90 or more
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 67

Older Men Are Married; 

Older Women Are

Widowed

Extensive research has demonstrated that being married benefits 

older people’s mental health and 

other health outcomes. Studies in 

Europe and the United States have 

shown that married older people 

generally are less likely to report 

depressive symptoms and are more 

likely to report satisfaction with 

life than their unmarried counterparts, and that men appear to 

benefit from marriage more than 

women (Brown, Bulanda, and Lee, 

2005; Chipperfield and Havens, 

2001; and Hagedoorn et al., 2006). 

Multicountry studies also show 

that married older people generally have lower mortality rates 

than their nonmarried counterparts 

(Valkonen, Martikainen, and 

Blomgren, 2004; and Murphy, 

Grundy, and Kalogirou, 2007).

Older men are more likely to be 

married than older women. The 

latest available data on marital status for the study countries in this 

report show that about 60 percent 

to 85 percent of men aged 65 and 

over were married (Appendix Table 

B-6). Even at ages 75 and over, 70 

percent of men in a majority of the 

study countries were married. In 

contrast, 30 percent to 40 percent 

of women aged 65 and over were 

married (with the exception of Sri 

Lanka, where the proportion was 

57 percent in 2001). At ages 75 

and over, on average, 20 percent of 

women were married. This pattern 

is found in developed and developing countries alike (Figure 6-3).

Widowhood has been associated 

with negative psychological wellbeing of older people, with studies showing that the widowed are 

more likely than other groups to 

be depressed and unhappy about 

life and to suffer from loneliness 

and boredom (Delbes and Gaymu, 

2002; and Thierry, 2000). Data 

on widowhood in the study countries with available information 

show that while 20 percent or less 

of older men were widowed, the 

proportion widowed among older 

women generally was in the 40 

percent range. More than half of all 

older women in Eastern European 

countries were widows, as was the 

case in most Asian and some Latin 

American study countries. 

Figure 6-2. 

Aggregate Sex Ratios for Older Age Groups: 2008 and 2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 20, 2008.

65-79 80+ 65-79 80+

2008 2040

Developed countries Developing countries

76

84

48

56

89 89

67

62
68 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 6-3. 

Percent Married at Older Ages for Selected Countries 

by Sex: Circa 2001

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

75 and over

65 and over

55 to 64

Sources: Appendix Table B-6 and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 

Demographic Yearbook 2006 (Special Census Topic). 

Male

Female

Developed countries Developing countries

Greece, 2001

United States, 2006

Sweden, 2001

Russia, 2002

New Zealand, 2001

Argentina, 2001

Sri Lanka, 2001

Mexico, 2000

India, 2001

Botswana, 2001

28

67

49

78

40

72

57

84

62

72

74

90

27

61

25

61

40

65

39

74

62

64

63

86

23

72

30

70

30

76

41

79

55

82

68

90

27

66

28

73

42

72

36

76

68

76

53

79

29

76

20

65

46

83

35

72

72

89

63

80
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 69

Widowhood Rises

Sharply After Age 65 

Data from Denmark in 2007 

(Figure 6-4) display the typical 

upward curve of widowhood with 

age, as well as gender differences. 

Widowhood for men is minimal 

until age 50 and increases steeply 

from age 70 (11 percent) to age 90 

(53 percent). Widowhood among 

women increases noticeably at an 

earlier age (10 percent by age 60) 

and rises steeply after age 65. 

The gender difference in marital 

status results from a combination 

of factors. The first is the sex difference in longevity described in 

Chapter 4—women on average live 

longer than men. Secondly, women 

tend to marry men older than 

themselves which, combined with 

the sex difference in life expectancy, increases the chance that 

a woman will be widowed in her 

older age. Furthermore, older widowed men have higher remarriage 

rates than older widowed women 

in many countries, often as a function of cultural norms. The fact that 

women are likely to outlive their 

spouse has important economic 

consequences for individuals and 

societies. A comparison of longitudinal data from Germany and 

the United States revealed that 

although the level of poverty is 

different in the two countries, most 

women in both nations experienced a decline in living standards 

upon widowhood and many fell 

into poverty as a result of the loss 

of public or private pension support (Hungerford, 2001). Another 

study in four developed countries 

(United States, Germany, Great 

Britain, and Canada) found that 

women in low-income households 

were protected in all four countries 

by government programs that, on 

average, increased their household 

size-adjusted income following 

their husbands’ deaths. In contrast, 

substantial declines in household 

size-adjusted income were more 

likely to be seen for women who 

lived in higher-income households 

prior to the deaths of their husbands (Burkhauser et al., 2005). 

Trend data from Appendix Table B-6 

suggest that the gender gap in proportions married among older people 

may be narrowing. Projections of 

marital status in the United Kingdom 

indicate that the married proportion 

Figure 6-4. 

Percent Widowed in Denmark by Age and Sex: 2007

Source: Statistics Denmark, 2007. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Percent

Female

Male

Age
70 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

of older men will decline from 

2001 to 2021, after being largely 

unchanged from 1971 to 2001 

(United Kingdom Office for National 

Statistics, 2004). The percent married 

among older women increased during the 1971–2001 period, and the 

projected gender gap of 21 percentage points in 2021 is a reduction 

from 38 percentage points in 1971 

(Figure 6-5). While a woman’s likelihood of being widowed was stable 

from 1971 to 2001, the projected 

rate declines from 47 percent in 

2001 to 35 percent in 2021. These 

changes are partly due to the narrowing of gender differentials in 

mortality discussed in Chapter 4, but 

they also reflect differences between 

generations in the propensity to 

marry earlier in life. Important differences are also seen crossnationally. 

In the1960s, research identified what 

became known as the “Hajnal Line,” 

distinguishing northern and western 

parts of Europe, which historically 

had late ages of marriage and relatively large proportions who never 

married, from southern and eastern 

regions in which marriage was earlier 

and more universal (Hajnal, 1965). 

Data from the late 1980s provide 

one illustration of this difference—2 

percent of older men in Bulgaria 

had never married, compared with 

about 25 percent in Ireland (Grundy, 

1996). The legacy of this difference 

persisted throughout the twentieth 

century and is still evident in the 

marital status distributions of today’s 

older populations. 

Figure 6-5. 

Change in Proportions Married and Widowed for People Aged 65 and Over 

in the United Kingdom by Sex: 1971 to 2021

Source: United Kingdom Office for National Statistics, 2004.

0

20

40

60

80

100

1971 1986 2001 2021

Percent

Female, widowed

Male, married

Male, widowed

Female, married
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 71

Most Older People

Reside With Family

The living arrangements of older 

people affect their life satisfaction, 

health, and chances of institutionalization. Marital status, availability 

of kin, personal wealth, health, 

and individual preferences are key 

determinants of an older person’s 

living arrangements. Cultural 

norms and social transfers of time, 

space, and money are equally 

important in deciding whether an 

older person lives alone or with 

family members. 

Crossnational comparisons of older 

people’s living arrangements reveal 

substantial differences between 

developed and developing regions. 

A major difference is that older 

people (especially older women) 

in developed countries often live 

alone, while living with kin is still 

the norm in the developing world. 

Census data for Argentina 

(Figure 6-6) show that more than 

half of all noninstitutionalized older 

people lived with their children 

and/or their extended family in 

2001. More than one-fourth lived 

with their spouse only, while 

one-fifth lived alone. The latter two percentages are high by 

developing-country standards. In 

Indonesia, Singapore, and Taiwan, 

most older people share a residence with kin and maintain such 

living arrangements for many years 

(Frankenberg, Chan, and Ofstedal, 

2002). In Bangladesh, more than 

80 percent of older parents live 

with one or more children (Ghuman 

and Ofstedal, 2004). In rural China, 

where multigenerational households are nearly universal, older 

people benefit from extended 

family integration and experience 

favorable psychological outcomes 

(Silverstein, Cong, and Li, 2006). 

Studies throughout the developing 

world have consistently shown the 

predominance of older people’s 

residence with adult children and/

or grandchildren, and that older 

people rely heavily on family members for their well-being and survival (Bongaarts and Zimmer, 2002; 

and Zeng and George, 2000). 

In addition to norms that place 

the responsibility for taking 

care of older people on their 

children, another reason for the 

prevalence of multigenerational 

coresidence in many developing nations is that social transfer 

programs that enhance old-age 

security and enable alternate 

Figure 6-6. 

Living Arrangements for Household Population Aged 65 and Over 

in Argentina: 2001

Note: Excludes older people living in institutions (about 2.8 percent of the total population aged 65 and over).

Source: Argentina National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, 2001 census data.

Nonfamily

0.9%

With extended family

34.9%

Alone

19.6%

With spouse only

28.2%

With spouse and children

16.4%
72 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

living arrangements are lacking or 

just beginning. In contrast, most 

industrialized countries have welldeveloped social transfer systems 

(Palloni, 2001). Nevertheless, 

multigenerational living arrangements remain common in some 

Western countries. A study of 

the older population in Spain, for 

example, found that 66 percent of 

those widowed and 34 percent of 

those married lived with at least 

one child (Zunzunegui, Beland, and 

Otero, 2001). In addition, many 

older people not residing with their 

children lived in the same neighborhood as their children. 

Intergenerational

Coresidence Is on 

the Decline

Although multigenerational family households, referred to here as 

“coresidence,” are still common, 

trend data show that multigenerational living arrangements have 

been declining in many countries, 

particularly in Europe. Over a 

25-year period (1974 to 1999) in 

Greece, the proportion of unmarried older people living with a married child dropped from 23 percent 

to less than 9 percent, and the 

proportion of older couples residing with a married child declined 

from 14 percent to 5 percent. 

While coresidence of older people 

and their single children remained 

stable over time, the share of 

unmarried older people living alone 

almost doubled (10 percent to 19 

percent) during the 25-year period 

(Karagiannaki, 2005).

The decline of intergenerational 

coresidence has also occurred in 

Japan, where the extended family 

structure has historically been a 

prominent feature of society. During 

the 1960–1995 period, the proportion of older Japanese living with 

children dropped from 87 percent 

to 56 percent, and it is projected 

to decline further to 42 percent by 

2010. At the same time, rising life 

expectancy has led to an increase 

in the joint survival of husbands 

and wives to ever-older age, and 

the share of older Japanese living 

with their spouse only has risen 

accordingly (Figure 6-7). Research 

on changing living arrangements 

Figure 6-7. 

Living Arrangements for People Aged 65 and Over in Japan: 1960 to 2010

(In percent)

1

 Percentages living with married child(ren) include small numbers of older people living in unspecified arrangements.

Source: Japan National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

With spouse only

With married child(ren)1

In institutions

Alone

1960 1980 1995 2010

4

8 12

13

1

4 4 5

87

70

56

42

7

18

28

40
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 73

in Japan points to a shift from a 

traditional preventive approach of 

advance preparation for the agerelated needs of older parents to 

a contingent approach of waiting 

until older parents have specific 

needs (Takagi, Silverstein, and 

Crimmins, 2007). There is evidence 

that older parents who begin living 

with an adult child relatively late in 

the child’s life are more likely than 

other parents to be widowed and/

or in poor health.

When studying the decline in the 

trend of intergenerational coresidence, some researchers hold 

that the main contributing factor 

was the increasing resources of 

the older people that facilitated 

independent living, while others 

found that the primary cause was 

increasing opportunities for the 

young combined with declining 

parental control over their children 

(Engelhardt, Gruber, and Perry, 

2005; McGarry and Schoeni, 2000; 

and Ruggles, 2007). Researchers 

also caution against using data at 

a given point in time or on aggregate trends over time as prevalence measures because these 

measures do not capture individual-level transitions in coresidence 

of adult children and parents. 

Longitudinal data on the living 

arrangements of older people in 

Taiwan from 1989 to 2003 showed 

substantial fluctuations in their 

coresidence status (Hermalin et 

al., 2005). The study also found 

that many of the socioeconomic 

factors that predict coresidence 

status at a single point of time did 

not explain transitions in living 

arrangements, and the authors 

suggested that future research on 

the determinants of transitions 

should incorporate changes in life 

course events, such as the health 

and resources of the older people 

as well as opportunities and constraints for their children.

Figure 6-8. 

People Aged 65 and Over Living Alone in Ten European Nations 

by Sex: 2001

(In percent)

Source: Ireland Central Statistics Office, 2007.

Czech Netherlands Switzerland Italy Poland Latvia Portugal

Republic

Denmark Slovakia Germany

Male Female

26.4

55.1

18.1

49.1

16.6

47.4

18.3

44.1

17.7

43.9

16.7

41.7

13.6

36.0

13.8

33.7

12.7

28.5

10.1

25.3
74 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Nearly Half of Older

Women Live Alone in 

Some European Nations

As older people become less likely 

to reside with their adult children, their proportion living alone 

increases, especially in developed 

countries (Grundy, 2001). The 

phenomenon of older people living alone is particularly salient in 

European Union member states 

(Figure 6-8). Around half of women 

aged 65 and over in Denmark, 

Slovakia, and Germany lived alone 

in 2001. Because older men are 

less likely than older women to be 

widowed, they are also less likely 

to live alone. In the ten European 

Union countries in Figure 6-8, the 

percentage of older men living 

alone ranged from 10 percent to 

26 percent. That older women are 

more likely to live alone than older 

men also has been documented 

in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, 

Estonia, Finland, and Romania (De 

Vos and Sandefur, 2002). It is still 

relatively uncommon for older 

people in developing countries to 

live alone (Table 6-1).

A large amount of research has 

sought to understand the relationship between living alone 

and loneliness. The consensus is 

that living alone does not equate 

to loneliness, although the two 

may be related. Loneliness can be 

emotional (the lack of a specific, 

intimate relationship) or social 

(the lack of social integration and 

embeddedness) (van Tilburg, 

Havens, and Gierveld, 2004). In the 

European context, research suggests that loneliness increases with 

age but may not be due to aging 

per se. Rather, loneliness could be 

the result of weakened social integration due to increasing disability 

and/or a reduction in social activity (Dykstra, van Tilburg, and 

Gierveld, 2005; and Jylha, 2004). 

Researchers caution that living 

with others does not preclude 

loneliness, and that a spouse or 

children do not necessarily provide 

stronger emotional companionship than friends. A longitudinal 

study of female nurses aged 60 to 

72 in the United States found that, 

compared with those living with 

their spouse, women living alone 

were not more socially isolated 

and had better measures of cognitive health (Michael et al., 2001). 

Data from the English Longitudinal 

Study of Aging (Demakakos, Nunn, 

and Nazroo, 2006) indicate that 

older people who had children but 

did not feel close to any of them 

were more likely to feel lonely than 

people without children.

Figure 6-9. 

Living Arrangements for People Aged 60 and Over in 

Sub-Saharan Africa by Residence: Circa 2003

(In percent)

1

 A skipped-generation household consists of at least one grandchild but no own children. Categories are not mutually exclusive

or exhaustive. 

Source: Zimmer, 2007. 

Total Men, rural Men, urban Women, rural Women, urban

In skipped-generation 

households1

With at least 

one grandchild

With at least 

one child 

Alone

8.8

5.6 7.0

12.5 9.9

60.9

68.9

72.6

50.2

55.2

45.7

36.1 37.5

56.0 55.4

14.1

9.5 7.3

20.4

16.9
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 75

Skipped-Generation 

Households Are

a Feature of

Sub-Saharan Africa

The impact of the worldwide HIV/

AIDS pandemic on older people 

has become the focus of a growing 

body of research (e.g., Knodel and 

Saengtienchai 2005; Zimmer and 

Dayton, 2003; and Knodel et al., 

2007). The pandemic affects HIV/

AIDS parents (i.e., older parents of 

adult children who die of AIDS) in 

multiple ways, including caregiving, coresidence, providing material 

support, fostering grandchildren, 

loss of children, and the community’s reaction (Knodel, Watkins, and 

VanLandingham, 2002). 

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region 

most seriously affected by HIV/

AIDS. The Joint United Nations 

Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated 

that 29.4 million of the 33.2 million 

people worldwide living with HIV/

AIDS in 2007 lived in Sub-Saharan 

Africa (UNAIDS and World Health 

Organization, 2007). A study of 22 

countries in the region, based on 

data from the Demographic and 

Health Survey program, examined 

variations in living arrangements 

of older people as well as changes 

over time (Zimmer, 2007). Of 

particular interest to this chapter is 

the skipped-generation household 

structure, where an older person 

or couple resides with at least one 

grandchild without the presence of 

middle-generation family members. 

Overall, about 14 percent of older 

people lived in a skipped-generation 

household in the early-to-mid 2000s 

(Figure 6-9). Rural older people were 

more likely than their urban counterparts, and women were more 

likely than men, to live in a skippedgeneration household. 

The skipped-generation family 

structure is not new in Africa, as 

rural young adults have frequently 

migrated to urban areas for job 

opportunities and left young 

children behind in the care of 

their grandparents. Today, however, middle-generation adults are 

increasingly infected with HIV and 

die of AIDS, and thus the skippedgeneration household increasingly 

consists of the parents of people 

with HIV/AIDS and their grandchildren. When they are the only adults 

in the household, older people 

shoulder the financial and emotional responsibility of raising their 

grandchildren, often with meager 

resources (Ferreira, 2004).

Table 6-2 indicates the association between HIV/AIDS deaths and 

the skipped-generation household 

living arrangement. Older people 

living in countries with higher 

cumulative crude death rates due 

to HIV/AIDS generally are more 

likely to live in a skipped-generation household or a household 

where the resident grandchildren 

have lost both parents (such children are sometimes called double 

orphans). The 22-nation study also 

found that over the period of a 

decade, the increase in the proportion of older adults living with their 

double-orphaned grandchild was 

higher in countries that have higher 

HIV/AIDS prevalence. The patterns 

confirm that HIV/AIDS deaths often 

require grandparents to care for 

their orphaned grandchildren.

Table 6-1.

Percent of People Aged 60 and Over Living Alone by Sex:

Circa 2000

Country Survey year Male Female

Africa

Benin ................................... 2001 9.0 11.7

Egypt ................................... 2000 3.9 13.1

Ethiopia ... ............................. 2000 1.6 8.6

Gabon ... ............................... 2000 12.3 9.9

Malawi ... .............................. 2000 8.4 13.9

Mali .......... .......................... 2001 5.1 9.8

Rwanda ... ............................. 2000 4.4 8.1

Zambia.................................. 2001/2002 5.5 12.3

Asia

Armenia ...... .......................... 2000 3.8 12.1

Bangladesh...... ........................ 1999/2000 0.6 3.3

India ..... .............................. 1998/1999 1.8 5.0

Nepal ........ ........................... 2001 2.6 6.6

Philippines... ............................ 1998 4.0 6.4

Turkey .... .............................. 1998 4.4 12.5

Latin America/Caribbean

Colombia ..... ........................... 2000 6.7 7.4

Dominican Republic ......... ............. 1999 6.4 5.9

Guatemala... ............................ 1998/1999 4.6 7.8

Haiti .................................... 2000 8.3 8.6

Mexico ... ............................... 2000 7.2 9.6

Panama ... .............................. 2000 14.1 8.5

Peru . ................................... 2000 8.1 9.2

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2005.
76 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Use of Long-Term Care

Facilities Varies by

Social Group

Although there is no universal definition, long-term care facilities usually include nursing homes, assisted 

living/residential care facilities, and 

sometimes hospice centers. The 

need for long-term care usually is 

most acute and most concentrated 

during the period of frailty associated with advanced old age (Leung, 

2000). Women and the oldest old 

are likely to be overrepresented 

among long-term care residents. 

Residential aged-care data from 

Australia show that in 2007, 71 

percent of all such residents were 

women and 54 percent were aged 

85 and over (Australian Institute 

of Health and Welfare, 2008). 

Institutional use is also associated 

with marital status, prior living 

arrangements, older people’s health, 

and the economic resources of older 

people and their adult children. A 

longitudinal study in England and 

Wales linked records of the surviving sample of community-dwelling 

people aged 65 and over in 1991 

who had moved into institutional 

care by 2001 (Grundy and Jitlal, 

2007). The results showed that 

older age, living in rented housing, living alone in 1991 and being 

unmarried in 2001, and long-term 

illness were the main sociodemographic factors contributing to 

institutionalization. Among women, 

being childless also was a factor. 

Similar findings were reported by an 

earlier study in the United Kingdom 

(Hancock et al., 2002). Studies 

in Canada and France also found 

caregiver burden (a term used to 

describe the physical, emotional, 

and financial toll of providing care) 

to be an independent factor associated with the institutionalization 

of older people with dementia or 

Alzheimer’s disease (Hebert et al., 

2001; and Soto et al., 2006).

Institutional residence has become 

an option for older people in developed countries who have difficulties with activities of daily living 

or who require specialized medical 

services. Some nations have universal systems of long-term care 

for their older populations (and 

for younger people with disabilities), and Japan requires mandatory long-term care insurance 

(International Longevity Center, 

2006; and Lundsgaard, 2005). The 

highest rates of institutional use 

are seen in some of the world’s 

demographically oldest countries. 

Crossnational comparisons of 

institutionalized populations are 

problematic due to the absence of 

internationally consistent data, but 

one attempt to collate reasonably 

Table 6-2.

Cumulative Crude Death Rate Due to AIDS and Living Arrangements of People Aged 60

and Over in 22 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Circa 2003

Country Year of DHS

survey

Cumulative crude

death rate1

Percent living in a

skippedgeneration

household

Percent living in a

double-orphaned

household

Madagascar ... ....................................... 2004 1.1 18.9 2.4

Senegal ..... ......................................... 2005 3.1 8.3 1.2

Benin ..... ........................................... 2001 4.8 11.2 0.4

Mali.................................................. 2001 7.8 9.1 1.2

Guinea... ............................................ 2005 8.2 10.3 1.5

Gabon .......................................... ..... 2000 11.0 9.2 0.4

Nigeria ..... .......................................... 2003 14.1 8.6 0.5

Ghana .......................................... ..... 2003 15.7 16.0 0.7

Chad . . . ............................................. 2004 15.8 12.1 1.4

Namibia ... ........................................... 2000 21.2 22.1 2.8

Cameroon .... ........................................ 2004 23.2 12.6 1.1

Ethiopia ...... ........................................ 2005 27.6 14.0 2.5

Burkina Faso ... ...................................... 2003 33.5 7.5 1.0

Rwanda ... ........................................... 2005 42.4 25.1 7.7

Mozambique... ....................................... 2003 43.3 18.1 1.9

Congo ......... ..................................... . 2005 44.7 9.8 2.2

Kenya..... ........................................... 2003 45.0 18.3 3.8

Tanzania ..... ........................................ 2004 50.8 16.4 2.1

Malawi .... .......................................... . 2004 76.9 30.1 8.1

Lesotho ... .......................................... . 2004 78.0 26.5 6.9

Uganda ... ........................................... 2001 87.9 26.0 7.0

Zambia.... ........................................... 2001 91.0 21.7 8.1

1 Cumulative crude death rates are estimates of the total number of deaths ever occurring in a country due to AIDS expressed per 1,000 individuals living in

the country in the year of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).

Source: Zimmer, 2007.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 77

comparative data on institutional 

living showed that the percentage 

of older people living in institutions 

in developed countries around the 

year 2001 ranged from 4 percent 

to 12 percent (Figure 6-10). More 

than 8 percent of people aged 65 

and over in Norway, Denmark, the 

Netherlands, and Sweden were in 

various types of long-term care 

facilities. People in institutions at 

one point in time do not necessarily remain there and “age in 

place” indefinitely. Many older 

individuals who enter an institution eventually leave, and many 

make multiple transitions. Some 

national nursing home systems 

(e.g., the Netherlands) have welldeveloped rehabilitative programs 

that discharge a high proportion 

of users back into the community, 

while other systems have relatively 

limited rehabilitative services.

Rates of institutionalization usually are low or negligible in the 

developing world (United Nations 

Department of Economic and Social 

Affairs, 2005), where social traditions and official decrees of filial 

and familial responsibility have 

discouraged debate about living 

arrangements of older people. 

Lately, however, a number of countries have recognized that even if 

the family retains much of the support function for older members, 

demographic and socioeconomic 

changes are straining this arrangement. Consequently, many developing nations have adopted new 

policies aimed at alleviating current 

and anticipated problems (United 

Nations Department of Economic 

and Social Affairs, 2007a). Longterm care provision and/or homes 

for the aged have become increasingly accepted and common in 

countries—especially in Southeast 

Asia—where sustained fertility 

declines have led to rapid population aging and reduced the number 

of potential family caregivers. A 

number of researchers and medical practitioners (e.g., Chiu and 

Chiu, 2005; Mangone and Arizaga, 

1999; and Phillips and Chan, 2002) 

have raised warnings about the 

increasing prevalence of dementia 

in developing countries and the 

attendant implications for longterm care. 

Figure 6-10. 

Percentage of People Aged 65 and Over in Institutions: Circa 2001

1

 Netherlands and the Nordic countries include people in service housing. 2

 Japan includes people in long-stay hospitals. 

Source: Gibson, Gregory, and Pandya, 2003. 

Germany, 2000

United States, 2000

Israel, 2000

Austria, 1998

United Kingdom, 1996

Finland,1 1997

Australia, 2003

Japan,2 2003

Belgium, 1998

France, 1997

Sweden,1 2001

Netherlands,1 2003

Denmark,1 2001

Norway,

1 2001

3.5

4.2

4.5

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.7

6.0

6.4

6.5

8.2

8.8

9.1

11.8

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 79

Population aging puts pressure on 

a society’s ability to support its 

older members, who may compete with the young for resources, 

especially when the ratio between 

the working-aged population and 

the older population becomes low. 

The statistics discussed in the first 

part of this chapter may be seen as 

broad indicators of how changing 

national age distributions could 

affect the need for social services, 

housing, and consumer products 

for older people. 

Some Countries Have

Just Three WorkingAged People per One

Older Person 

A commonly used indicator of 

societal support is a dependency 

ratio, the ratio between youth and/

or older people and working-aged 

people. Herein, the older dependency ratio (ODR) is defined as the 

number of people aged 65 and over 

per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Not 

surprisingly, countries with high 

percentages of people aged 65 and 

over tend to have the highest ODRs 

(Figure 7-1). Among the 52 study 

countries in this report, the ODR in 

2008 ranged from 6 in Kenya and 

Uganda to 36 in Japan. Japan’s ODR 

of 36 means that fewer than three 

working-aged people aged 20 to 

64 supported one older person in 

2008. Figure 7-2 presents a global 

view of older dependency ratios 

in 2008. The highest ODRs are 

seen in Western and some Eastern 

European countries and Japan. 

In contrast, the ODR is less than 

CHAPTER 7.

Social and Family Support

Figure 7-1. 

Older Dependency Ratio for 20 Countries: 2008

(People aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 10, 2008.

Kenya

Bangladesh

Egypt

South Africa

Brazil

China

South Korea

Israel

Argentina

United States

Russia

Belarus

Ukraine

United Kingdom

Latvia

France

Belgium

Greece

Italy

Japan

6

7

9

10

11

13

15

17

19

21

22

23

25

26

27

28

29

31

33

36
80 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau Figure 7-2. Older Dependency Ratio: 2008 Older dependency ratio Less than 10 10 to 16 17 to 24 25 or more Note: Older dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on May 27, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 81

10 in a large majority of countries in Africa and southern Asia. 

Projections suggest that the ODR 

for Europe as a whole will double 

from 24 in 2000 to 48 by 2040, 

implying that the ratio of workers 

to older people could be only 2 to 1 

in three decades’ time. At the other 

end of the spectrum, the predicted 

relatively high fertility, coupled 

with the impact of HIV/AIDS, in SubSaharan Africa will likely preclude a 

major change in the regional ODR 

(Figure 7-3).

Figure 7-3. 

Older Dependency Ratio for World Regions: 2000, 2020, and 2040

Note: Older dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 10, 2008.

Northern Oceania

America

Latin America/

Caribbean

Western

Europe

Eastern

Europe

Near

East

Asia

(excluding

Near East)

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Northern

Africa

2000 2020 2040

9

11

21

7 7 8

11

16

28

21

28

42

27

35

53

11

15

26

9 10

17

21

29

39

18

24

33

Table 7-1.

Total, Older, and Youth Dependency Ratios for World

Regions: 2008

Region

Total

dependency

ratio1

Older

dependency

ratio

Youth

dependency

ratio

Northern Africa ...... ..................... 82 9 73

Sub-Saharan Africa ... .................... 131 7 124

Asia (excluding Near East) ................ 73 12 61

Near East ... ............................ 89 9 80

Eastern Europe ...... .................... 57 23 34

Western Europe ... ...................... . 65 29 35

Latin America/Caribbean ......... ......... 78 12 67

Northern America. . . ..................... . 66 21 45

Oceania ... ............................. . 73 19 55

1 The total dependency ratio is the number of people aged0to 19 and 65 and over per 100 people

aged 20 to 64. It is composed of the older dependency ratio, which is the number of people aged 65

and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64, and the youth dependency ratio, which is the number of people

aged0to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 10, 2008.
82 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Implicit in the standard definition of an older dependency ratio is the notion that all people over age 64 

are no longer working and, in some sense, are dependent on the population in the working ages (20 to 64 

years) who provide indirect support to older people 

through taxes and contributions to social welfare 

programs. However, not all older people require support, and not all working-aged people actually work 

or provide direct support to older family members. 

Older populations are diverse in terms of resources, 

needs, and abilities. Older people pay taxes and often 

have income and wealth that fuel economic growth. 

As discussed in Chapter 9, labor force participation 

rates at ages 65 and over have been increasing in 

many countries.

While it is empirically difficult to include factors such 

as intrafamily financial assistance and child-care 

activities in an aggregate measure of social support, 

it is feasible to take account of employment characteristics in both the working-aged and older populations. In Figure 7-4, the left bar for each country 

corresponds to the standard older dependency ratio 

as defined above. The second, third, and fourth 

bars represent alternative older dependency ratios. 

The second bar includes only the economically 

active population aged 20 to 64 in the denominator, excluding such categories as unpaid household 

workers, nonworking students, discouraged workers, 

and perhaps individuals whose health status keeps 

them out of the labor force. The third bar represents 

a calculation similar to the second bar but removes 

economically active people aged 65 and over from 

the numerator on the assumption that they are not 

economically dependent. The fourth bar builds on 

the third bar by adding these economically active 

older people to the ratio denominator of other economically active individuals on the assumption that 

these working older people contribute tax revenue 

to national coffers. By taking into consideration the 

status of economic activity, alternative dependency 

ratios may provide a clearer picture of a society’s 

support burden.

The alternative ratios in each country are higher 

than the standard ratio, even when the calculations 

Box 7-1.

Standard and Alternative Older Dependency Ratios

Figure 7-4. 

Standard and Alternative Older Dependency Ratios for Five Countries: 2006

Source: International Labour Organization, <http://laborsta.ilo.org>, accessed on February 6, 2008.

Australia Canada Chile Poland South Korea

Noneconomically 

active population aged 

65 and over per 100

economically active

population aged 20

and over

Noneconomically

active population 

aged 65 and over

per 100 economically

active population aged 

20 to 64 

Total population 

aged 65 and over

per 100 economically 

active population 

aged 20 to 64 

Total population 

aged 65 and over

per 100 total

population aged

20 to 64 

14 15

21

15

29 29

31

21 20 21

25

17

22 23

25

20

26 26

28

22
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 83

Elements of the Total

Dependency Ratio

Reflect Age Structure

and Support Needs

Nonworking older people are not 

the only group a society’s working population needs to support. A 

nation’s young are the other half of 

the equation. The total dependency 

ratio (TDR) is an indicator of society’s total support needs. The TDR 

combines the ODR with a youth 

dependency ratio (YDR), defined in 

this report as the number of people 

aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 

20 to 64.1 Looking at world regions 

1 Older, youth, and total dependency ratios 

in 2000, 2020, and 2040 are presented for 

the 52 study countries in Appendix Table B-7.

in 2008, Sub-Saharan Africa stands 

out with a TDR of 131, indicating 

that the total of younger and older 

people exceeded the number of 

working-aged people (Table 7-1). 

Eastern Europe had the lowest TDR 

(57) among world regions in 2008. 

More than 40 percent of Eastern 

Europe’s “dependency” came from 

include noneconomically active older people in the 

numerator and economically active older people in 

the denominator (the fourth bar). The exception is 

South Korea, where older people have a relatively 

high rate of labor force participation. To the extent 

that policy and program agencies use dependency 

ratio calculations, the effect of including or excluding labor force participation rates appears considerable in most countries. Data permitting, other adjustments might be made to these ratios to account 

for factors such as workers under age 20, trends 

in unemployment, average retirement ages, levels 

of pension receipt and institutionalization among 

the older population, and the prevalence of highcost disabilities. While standard older dependency 

ratios provide us with a rough idea of changing 

demographics, changes in government policies and 

people’s behavior (e.g., propensities to save throughout a lifetime or to work at older ages) will affect the 

impact of demographic change.

Box 7-1.

Standard and Alternative Older Dependency Ratios—Con.

Figure 7-5. 

Composition of Total Dependency Ratios for Selected Countries: 2008 

1

 Older dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64. 2

 Youth dependency ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64. 3

 Total dependency ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 and 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Youth and older ratios may 

not sum to total ratio due to rounding.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on February 6, 2008.

Bulgaria

Kuwait

Italy

Brunei

Germany

Cyprus

Japan

Burma

Youth dependency ratio Older dependency rati 2 o1 Total dependency ratio3

28 31 59

5 54 59

33 30

5 58 63

63

33 32 65

20 45 65

36 31 67

9 58 67
84 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 7-6.

Population for China by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2008

Millions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center special tabulations.

0369 12 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85+

15 12 9 6 3 0

Male Age Female
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 85

older age groups (ODR of 23), compared with less than 6 percent for 

Sub-Saharan Africa (ODR of 7). The 

compositional differentials reflect 

highly different age structures that 

have distinct implications for societal support. Figure 7-5 presents 

four pairs of countries with identical 

TDRs but different youth/older compositions. For example, both Burma 

and Japan had a total dependency 

ratio of 67 in 2008; but for Japan, 

more than half of the ratio resulted 

from the size of the older population, while for Burma, 87 percent 

was due to youth and children.

China’s Shifting Age

Composition Alters

Dependency Ratios

The situation in China illustrates 

the impact of low fertility on a 

country’s age structure and population aging. China started a nationwide family planning program in 

the 1970s and began implementing 

the one-child-per-couple policy in 

1979, aimed at curbing growth in 

the world’s most populous nation 

(Lee and Feng, 1999). While the 

policy was relaxed somewhat in 

subsequent years, China’s total 

fertility rate declined from 5.8 in 

1950, to 2.7 in 1979, to under the 

replacement level in 1991 (2.0), 

and it has remained below replacement since then (He et al., 2007). 

The impact of the fertility decline 

can be seen in China’s age and sex 

profile in 2008 (Figure 7-6). The 

base of the population pyramid 

is smaller than the middle age 

groups. The indentation at ages 27 

to 31 reflects small birth cohorts at 

the initiation of the family planning policy.2 The large bulge of 

people aged 37 to 45 represents 

those who were born after the 

great famine in the early 1960s 

and before the family planning 

policy started, and these people 

will be entering their sixties around 

2025. Population momentum 

will produce a rapid aging of the 

Chinese population in the third and 

fourth decades of this century. By 

then, it is projected that China’s 

older dependency ratio and youth 

dependency ratio will have converged (Figure 7-7), and we may 

anticipate a society and economic 

fabric that are quite different from 

those of today. As population 

aging proceeds, one concern that 

2 Another sharp indentation at ages 47 to 

49 reflects extremely low fertility resulting 

from the great famine in the early 1960s.

Figure 7-7. 

Youth and Older Dependency Ratios in China: 1953 to 2050

1

 Youth dependency ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64. 2

 Older dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64.

Sources: For 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, and 2000, China census data; for 2010 to 2050, U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 

accessed on February 6, 2008.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1953 1964 1982 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ratio

Older dependency ratio2

Youth dependency ratio1
86 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

is increasingly voiced has to do 

with the growth of China’s labor 

force. The success of birth control 

measures means that the growth 

of China’s labor force may soon 

cease; in fewer than 10 years, the 

size of the labor force will likely 

begin to decline, and one of the 

basic advantages of China’s economic development may atrophy 

(Cai and Wang, 2006). 

China’s changing age structure 

also gives rise to concerns about 

whether family members will be 

available for older people’s care. 

Without siblings to share the 

responsibility, young couples born 

since the one-child policy often are 

shouldering the task of taking care 

of four older parents. The children 

of today, if the current one-child 

policy continues to the time of their 

marriage in 20 years, could face the 

task of taking care of four parents 

and as many as eight grandparents. 

Some researchers (e.g., Zimmer and 

Kwong, 2003) argue that overall 

reductions in family support may 

be less drastic than anticipated. 

Nevertheless, there is a general 

concern that the extensive reduction in family size, coupled with 

rural-urban migration that draws 

young people to work in cities, will 

result in fewer caregivers for aging 

parents and an undermining of the 

traditional family support system 

(Du and Guo, 2000; and Silverstein, 

Cong, and Li, 2006).

Adult Children Are

the Main Providers of

Support to Older People

China is not alone in facing the 

challenge of caring for older 

people. The limited number of 

family members available for old 

age care will be felt in countries 

where fertility has declined rapidly and where the family is the 

preeminent provider of old age 

support. Families, and especially 

adult children, are still the primary 

source of support and care for 

older people in most countries. In 

South Korea, for example, most 

older people needing assistance 

with basic activities of daily living 

are cared for by family members, 

typically daughters-in-law. Barely 1 

percent of South Koreans aged 65 

and over in 2002 received any type 

of public long-term care (Howe, 

Jackson, and Nakashima, 2007). 

Other studies in Asia show that 

70 percent to 90 percent of older 

people received money or material 

goods from another person, almost 

all of which came from adult children (Biddlecom, Chayovan, and 

Ofstedal, 2002; and Cuong et al., 

2000). Research on aging in SubSaharan Africa has documented 

that family support ensures economic security for older people in 

the absence of formal welfare systems. However, growing poverty 

and a reduced resource capacity of 

the middle generation can lead to 

a decline in such support, as in the 

case of Ghana (Aboderin, 2004).

Social structures in which family 

members are the main providers of 

support are not unique to developing countries. The European Study 

of Adult Well-Being found that the 

family provides the bulk of support 

for older people in most European 

countries. Nonformal support 

comes primarily from a spouse and 

from adult children in the absence 

of a spouse (Burholt et al., 2003). 

In Southern European nations 

(Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain), 

the extended family plays more of 

a role in caring for aging parents 

than is the case in Northern Europe 

(Scharf et al., 2003; and Burholt et 

al., 2007). 

Although many industrialized 

nations have high proportions of 

older people living alone, data 

from the first wave of the Survey 

of Health, Ageing and Retirement 

in Europe (SHARE) suggest that 

people generally prefer “intimacy at a (small) distance” (Kohli, 

Kunermund, and Ludicke, 2005). 

In other words, people prefer that 

the distance between adult children 

and older parents is small enough 

so that exchange and support may 

easily happen across the boundaries of separate households. In 

most SHARE countries, about 20 

percent of people aged 80 and over 

with at least one living child had a 

child living in their neighborhood 

(less than 1 kilometer away) and 

at least another 30 percent had a 

child living within 1 to 25 kilometers, except in Austria and Spain 

(Figure 7-8). The percentages for 

having a child within 25 kilometers 

were 65 percent to 80 percent in 

France, Denmark, Sweden, and 

the Netherlands. When one looks 

at these data, the picture of older 

people living alone does not necessarily suggest isolation. 

Proportions of

Childless Older People

May Rise in the Future

Not all older people have children 

to support them. Childlessness 

is another factor that may affect 

the nature of future care receipt, 

but it has received relatively 

little attention in most countries. 

Childlessness has distinctive 

regional and historical patterns 

associated with demographic and 

nondemographic factors. Fertility, 

nuptiality, morbidity, infant mortality, and migration all play a role in 

childlessness; in addition, education, women’s work, urban-rural 

residence, and lifestyle preferences 

are strongly associated with reproductive decisions (Hakim, 2003; 

Schroder-Butterfill and Kreager, 

2005; and Spielauer, 2004). 

Figure 7-9 shows the percent childless among women aged 65 in 

2005 (born in 1940) in Europe and 

the United States, ranging from 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 87

Figure 7-8. 

Proximity to Nearest Living Child for People 

Aged 80 and Over in Ten European Countries: 2004

Source: Kohli, Kunemund, and Ludicke, 2005. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Austria Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland

1 to 25 kilometers

Less than 1 kilometer Percent

Figure 7-9. 

Percent Childless Among Women Aged 65 in Selected Countries: 2005

Source: Billari, 2005.

United

States

Nether- Norway Slovenia

lands

England Greece Hungary Italy

and

Wales

Czech

Republic

Bosnia Croatia

and

Herzegovina

Austria Belgium

15.0

13.0

11.6

8.6

7.6

10.6

11.4

9.1

14.6

11.2

9.5

8.3

9.9
88 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

less than 8 percent in the Czech 

Republic to 15 percent in Austria 

and Italy. However, this snapshot 

in time is only part of the story. In 

many Western countries, proportions of childless women are higher 

in cohorts born early in the twentieth century than in cohorts born 

30 or so years later. The generations born between World War I and 

World War II had relatively higher 

rates of marriage and lower rates 

of childlessness, so that proportions childless among today’s older 

populations often are declining. 

This trend suggests that in the next 

two to three decades, the potential 

child support available to older 

people in many developed nations 

will increase (Grundy, 2009). One 

three-nation analysis found that during this time period, the proportion 

of older people having a surviving 

child is likely to be higher than 

among any generation ever born in 

Britain, Finland, and France (Murphy, 

Martikainen, and Pennec, 2006).

On the other hand, the longerterm trend is less favorable—

childlessness among more recent 

cohorts (born after World War II) 

has been increasing. Studies of the 

1959 birth cohort in Britain and the 

1960 cohort in Western Germany 

have documented high levels of 

childlessness, about 1 woman in 5 

(Simpson, 2006; and Basu, 2002). 

In the United States, the percentage of women who are childless at 

ages 40 to 44 has been rising. The 

figure was 10 percent in 1970 and 

1980 but increased to 16 percent in 

1990 and to more than 20 percent 

by 2006. Permanent childlessness among younger age groups 

appears to be on the rise in Europe 

(Tanturri and Mencarini, 2008), and 

we may anticipate a similar trend 

in Latin America and Southeast 

Asia. Attitudinal research among 

younger (ages 18 to 39) European 

adults shows that more than onethird in Germany, the Netherlands, 

Finland, and Poland either intend 

to remain or are uncertain about 

remaining childless (Sobotka and 

Testa, 2006).

Childlessness in many African countries is said to have been common 

before the late 1960s due to high 

levels of infertility associated with 

the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases (White et al., 2001). 

Estimates of primary infertility 

(never having given birth) ranged 

from 10 percent to 20 percent. 

National surveys from the 1990s 

suggested that levels of primary 

infertility had dropped to less than 

5 percent in most countries, largely 

as a result of widespread adoption 

of antibiotics. Given the variation in 

family structure worldwide, it will 

be increasingly important to understand different types of childlessness (e.g., voluntary, involuntary 

“coerced,” involuntary “natural,” and 

loss of children due to HIV/AIDS) 

and the implications for eventual 

care arrangements as current and 

future cohorts of middle-aged 

people reach older age (Kreager 

and Schröder-Butterfill, 2004; and 

Dykstra and Hagestad, 2007).

Home Help Services

Reduce the Need for

Institutionalization

Chapter 6 noted that institutional 

residence is one care option for 

older people. Since the 1980s, 

social and governmental thinking (at least in Western countries) 

about the desirability of institutionalization has changed. Most member nations of the Organisation 

for Economic Co-Operation and 

Development (OECD) have encouraged more home- and communitybased care as an alternative to 

institutional care, and rates of 

institutionalization have been dropping (Gibson, Gregory, and Pandya, 

2003). Denmark, for example, 

relied heavily on institutional care 

in the early 1980s, but between 

1982 and 1996, the proportion 

of people aged 80 and older who 

lived in nursing homes decreased 

from 20 percent to 12 percent. 

Given the changes in family structure and kin availability, home 

help services reduce the need for 

institutionalization. Figure 7-10 

shows that the proportions of the 

older population receiving formal 

in-home help in the late 1990s and 

early 2000s vary widely by country. 

Such services reach one-fourth of 

the older population in Denmark 

and Austria but smaller proportions in some other countries 

with similar levels of population 

aging. Compared with OECD data 

for roughly one decade earlier, 

the prevalence of home help has 

increased in most of the countries shown in Figure 7-10. In the 

Netherlands in 2005, home care 

increased with increasing age until 

age 90; after that, the share of people receiving home help declined as 

proportionally more of the oldest 

population lived in nursing homes 

and other institutional facilities.

Older People Provide as

Well as Receive Support

Older people provide care for a 

variety of people (spouses, older 

parents, siblings, children, grandchildren, and nonfamily members) 

and do so for many reasons, 

including illness of a spouse or 

sibling and to assist single-parent 

families, working mothers, and 

orphaned grandchildren. Often 

the care provided by older family 

members is essential to the wellbeing of a family.

In countries with well-established 

pension and social security programs, many older adults also give 

other forms of support (including financial help, shelter, and the 

wisdom of experience) to their 

adult children and grandchildren. 

In Northern America, earlier studies 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 89

(e.g., Soldo and Hill, 1993; and 

Rosenthal, Martin-Matthews, and 

Matthews, 1996) suggested that 

older parents were more likely to 

provide financial help than receive 

it. Data from the ongoing Health 

and Retirement Study (HRS) in the 

United States confirm that older 

parents are more likely to provide 

time, money and/or coresidence 

to their children than receive 

such transfers; the only exception is seen among unmarried HRS 

respondents aged 80 and over, 

who in 2002 were more likely to 

receive help than provide it (U.S. 

National Institute on Aging, 2007). 

A similar transfer pattern among 

older people up to age 75 was 

found in Britain (Grundy, 2005) as 

well as in other European countries. Analysis of 2004 data from 

the SHARE revealed that transfers 

from older parents to children 

were much more frequent and 

substantial than those in the opposite direction, and the difference 

remained positive even though it 

declined with age (Albertini, Kohli, 

and Vogel, 2007). 

Older people in developing countries appear relatively less likely 

than those in developed countries 

to provide financial help. High 

proportions of older people in 

Asia receive financial and material transfers from their children, 

while flows in the other direction 

are lower (Biddlecom, Chayovan, 

and Ofstedal, 2002). The Study on 

Aging, Health, and Well-Being in 

Latin America and the Caribbean 

found that older people who reside 

with an adult child receive about 

the same amount of aid as they 

give, while noncoresident older 

people receive more than they 

give (Pelaez and Martinez, 2002). 

Beyond the financial realm, older 

people in developing countries 

make substantial contributions to 

family well-being in ways ranging 

from housekeeping to grandchild 

care and socialization. Such activities free younger adult women to 

help with family agricultural production (which may be unpaid) as 

well as pursue paid employment. 

Understanding intergenerational 

transfers is now a major focus 

in aging research. In both developed countries and developing 

countries, studies have moved 

beyond the description of transfer patterns to areas such as the 

mapping of kinship and support 

networks (Hermalin, 2002; and 

Chan, 2005); generational reciprocity (Verbrugge and Chan, 2008); 

Figure 7-10. 

Percentage of Population Aged 65 and Over Receiving Formal Home Help in

Selected Countries: Circa 2001

Source: Gibson, Gregory, and Pandya, 2003. 

Belgium, 1998

United Kingdom, 1996

France, 1997

Germany, 2000

Sweden, 2001

Japan, 2003

United States, 2000

Israel, 2000

Netherlands, 2003

Finland, 1997

Norway, 2001

Australia, 2003

Austria, 1998

Denmark, 2001

5

6

6

7

8

8

9

12

13

14

16

21

24

25
90 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

the effects of migration on old-age 

support networks (Kreager, 2006); 

the direction of wealth flows and 

how they may shift with changes 

in economic development (Lee, 

2007); the introduction of age into 

national transfer accounts (Mason 

et al., 2006); and the interplay 

of aging, intergenerational transfers, and macroeconomics (Clark, 

Ogawa, and Mason, 2007). 

Grandparenting Is

a Primary Role in 

Many Nations

Older people often contribute to 

their family by providing care for 

grandchildren, especially when 

the parents are working or studying (Tomassini, 2005). In countries 

with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, 

the role of older people (particularly women) as primary caregivers for children is expanding. In 

Sub-Saharan Africa, 30 percent of 

households are reported as being 

headed by a person aged 55 and 

over, and two-thirds of these households have at least one child under 

age 15 (United Nations Department 

of Economic and Social Affairs, 

2007a). A crossnational study 

in Asia (Biddlecom, Chayovan, 

and Ofstedal, 2002) found that 

38 percent of all older adults in 

the Philippines and 23 percent in 

Taiwan cared for grandchildren, 

while among older people who 

lived with their grandchildren, 32 

percent in Thailand and 70 percent 

in Singapore provided such care. 

In the United States, descriptive 

studies have indicated the growing 

importance of the grandparentgrandchild care relationship. 

Census data for 2000 show that 42 

percent of coresident grandparents 

had primary care-giving responsibility for their coresident grandchildren younger than 18. Among 

coresident grandparents, 55 

percent of those aged 60 and over 

had cared for their grandchildren 

for 5 years or more, compared with 

32 percent of those younger than 

60 (Simmons and Dye, 2003). One 

study (Hughes et al., 2007) used 

six waves of longitudinal data from 

the HRS to examine different types 

of grandparent care-giving and 

changes in caregiver health. The 

researchers distinguished between 

grandparents who provided care 

to grandchildren who did not 

live with them and those whose 

grandchildren lived with them. 

They determined that grandparents who provided a considerable 

amount of care to nonresident 

grandchildren did so because of 

desire and resources, while grandparents who resided with grandchildren often did so because some 

family crisis had made this a necessity. Children living in their grandparents’ residence is relatively 

uncommon. In 1998, for example, 

5 percent of HRS participants lived 

with grandchildren, mostly in 

three-generation households. 

European grandparents in the 

SHARE are asked whether they 

regularly or occasionally look after 

their grandchildren. Data for ten 

countries from 2004 show that 

between 43 percent and 62 percent of grandmothers provided 

such care, with the highest levels 

in the Netherlands, Denmark, and 

Sweden. The most likely reason 

for the relatively high levels in 

Northern European countries is that 

grandmothers are helping their 

children to combine work and family commitments (Attias-Donfut, 

Ogg, and Wolff, 2005).
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 91

Education is linked to many aspects 

of a person’s well-being. People with 

higher education tend to have lower 

mortality rates and better overall 

health than their less-educated 

counterparts, as well as better 

cognitive functioning in older age. 

Part of the reason for this is that 

more-educated people tend to have 

higher incomes throughout their 

lifetime, which means they may be 

able to purchase a wider variety 

of health care than people with 

lower levels of education. Education 

also affects how effectively people 

utilize health care. Many studies 

attribute the education advantage to 

a combination of economic implications (e.g., better jobs and living 

conditions) and psychosocial influences related to healthy behavior, 

nutritional status, and medical-treatment-seeking behavior. 

Attainment Gap

Between Developed and

Developing Regions

The educational attainment of 

older people can differ substantially between developing and 

developed countries. Figure 8-1 

shows that in 2005, half or more 

of the near-older population (aged 

55 to 64) in 18 of 29 Organisation 

for Economic Co-Operation and 

Development (OECD) member 

states had completed secondary education or more, as had 

at least one-third in another five 

countries. The highest levels (79 

percent or more) are seen in the 

Czech Republic, Germany, and the 

United States. More than one-third 

of people aged 55 to 64 in the 

United States and Canada also had 

completed tertiary education. In 13 

other OECD countries, at least 1 in 

5 of the near-older population had 

completed tertiary education.

Secondary-education completion 

levels in most developing countries 

were notably lower, and a large 

gender gap is observed at ages 55 

to 64 in each of the countries in 

Figure 8-2 except Colombia. In the 

same set of countries, levels of completion at the secondary level for 

people aged 65 and over were generally about half of those for people 

aged 55 to 64. In some countries, 

less than 1 percent of older women 

had completed secondary school. 

CHAPTER 8.

Education and Literacy
92 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-1. 

Percentage of People Aged 55 to 64 Who Have Completed Secondary and 

Tertiary Education in 29 OECD Countries: 2005

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

United States

United Kingdom

Turkey

Switzerland

Sweden

Spain

South Korea

Slovakia

Portugal

Poland

Norway

New Zealand

Netherlands

Mexico

Luxembourg

Italy

Ireland

Iceland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Denmark

Czech Republic

Canada

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2007c.

Secondary only A Tertiary t least secondary

Percent
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 93

Sources: National censuses and demographic and health surveys. 

Peru,

2004

Malawi,

2004

Kenya,

2003

Indonesia,

2002-03

India,

2001

Egypt,

2005

Colombia,

2005

China,

2000

Bangladesh,

2004

7.9

0.2

3.2

0.7

4.8

4.0

7.5

2.8

6.9

1.5

5.1

1.1

2.1

0.0

3.0

0.5

14.2

11.8

Figure 8-2. 

Percentage of People in Two Age Groups Who Have Completed Secondary Education 

in Nine Developing Countries by Sex: Circa 2003

Peru,

2004

Malawi,

2004

Kenya,

2003

Indonesia,

2002-03

India,

2001

Egypt,

2005

Colombia,

2005

China,

2000

Bangladesh,

2004

Male Female

14.0

0.6

5.2

2.2

7.9 7.6

14.2

6.6

10.0

2.6

9.2

3.9

8.6

1.1

9.3

1.9

22.1

14.7

Aged 55 to 64 

Aged 65 and over 
94 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Illiteracy at Older

Ages Still Common in 

Developing Countries

Illiteracy hinders older people’s 

social participation and contribution to social development. People 

who do not read or write tend 

to work in low-paying jobs that 

likely offer few health and retirement benefits. Illiterate older 

people are often unaware of their 

rights and the benefits to which 

they are entitled, including social 

security benefits (United Nations 

Department of Economic and Social 

Affairs, 2007a).

Many of today’s older people in 

developing countries lived much 

of their lives prior to the rapid 

increase in educational attainment 

that occurred there in the second half of the twentieth century. 

Consequently, many older people, 

particularly older women, have low 

levels of literacy. On the basis of 

available information for 105 developing countries, the United Nations 

estimated that 56 percent of people 

aged 60 and over were illiterate in 

2000 (United Nations Department of 

Economic and Social Affairs, 2002). 

China’s 2000 census found that 66 

percent of women and 29 percent 

of men aged 65 and over could not 

read and write (Figure 8-3). Census 

data for Tunisia show even higher 

illiteracy levels—92 percent of 

women and 62 percent of men— 

among the 60-and-over population.

In many developed countries, 

literacy data no longer are routinely collected because education, 

at least at the primary level, is so 

widespread that literacy is considered to be universal. However, 

this may not always be the case 

for older people. In Portugal 

and Malta, for example, 1 in 7 

people aged 60 to 64 was illiterate in 2000, and the proportion 

illiterate at ages 70 and over was 

roughly one-fourth (United Nations 

Department of Economic and Social 

Affairs, 2002).

Future Older People

Will Have Higher

Levels of Literacy

and Education 

The other side of the story from 

Figure 8-3 is that today’s younger 

people have a much higher literacy 

rate than the older population, 

implying that future cohorts of 

older people will be more literate. 

In China in 2000, for example, 

the population aged 25 to 44 was 

almost completely literate. The 

Figure 8-3. 

Percent Illiterate for Two Age Groups in Four Countries by Sex: Circa 2000

1

 Tunisia's older age group is 60 and over. 

Sources: National censuses.

25-44 65+ 25-44 65+ 25-44 65+ 25-44 60+

Male Female

China, 2000 Tunisia,1 Costa Rica, 2000 Mexico, 2000 2004

91.8

61.8

26.2

9.4

38.1

26.3

7.4 4.8

17.8 17.0

11.4 13.7

65.5

29.0

3.9 1.3
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 95

oldest members of the 25-to-44 

age group in Figure 8-3 will turn 65 

around 2020, which means in less 

than two decades, the illiteracy rate 

for the older population in these 

countries will be substantially lower. 

A similar improvement is seen with 

regard to formal education in countries with reliable statistics over 

time. The general trend is illustrated by data for the United States 

in Figure 8-4. The percentage of 

people aged 55 and over who had 

completed at least the high school 

level rose from around 15 percent 

in 1940 to more than 80 percent as 

of 2007. Data for 27 OECD member 

states show that the overall trend 

toward higher educational attainment has continued in recent years. 

The percentage of people aged 55 

to 64 who had completed upper 

secondary education was higher in 

2005 than in 1998 in each of the 

27 nations (OECD, 2001; and OECD, 

2007c). Similar data for a subset 

of developing countries compiled 

by the United Nations Educational, 

Scientific and Cultural Organization 

(UNESCO) generally show the same 

trend (UNESCO and OECD, 2000; 

and UNESCO, 2006). 

In developed countries, participation in job training and job-related 

adult education has become a 

common experience, as indicated 

by results from the 22-country 

International Adult Literacy Survey 

(Statistics Canada 2001). The rate 

of participation in job-related 

training for older workers (aged 

56 to 65) ranged from 6 percent 

in Chile to 40 percent in Finland, 

with levels between 30 percent and 

40 percent in Canada, Denmark, 

Norway, Slovenia, and the United 

States.1 People with higher educational attainment were more likely 

to participate in further education and training. The relationship 

between extant and additional 

education is seen more clearly in 

data for 25 European countries. 

Among people aged 55 to 64 in 

2004, 2 percent of those with 

lower secondary or less education, 

5 percent of those with secondary 

1 Participation in job-related training refers 

to any such activity during the 12 months 

prior to the International Adult Literacy 

Survey.

Figure 8-4. 

Percentage of People Aged 55 and Over Who Have Completed High School or

Above in the United States: 1940 to 2007

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Historical Tables, Table A-1 “Years of School Completed by People 

25 Years and Over, by Age and Sex: Selected Years 1940 to 2007,” <www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo

/educ-attn.html>, accessed on October 2, 2008. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Percent
96 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

education, and 12 percent of 

those with tertiary education 

participated in lifelong learning 

activities. This pattern was also 

observed among younger people; 

for example, the corresponding 

percentages for those aged 45 to 

54 were 3 percent, 7 percent, and 

18 percent, respectively (European 

Commission, 2007).

Educational

Disadvantage Common 

in Rural Areas

Levels of literacy and educational 

attainment are lower in rural than 

in urban areas of most countries, 

particularly in the developing 

world. Census data for India 

(Figure 8-5) illustrate the common pattern wherein the rural 

disadvantage in literacy is evident 

for both sexes (i.e., rural males 

have lower literacy rates than 

urban males, and rural females 

have lower rates than urban 

females). After age 50, rural men 

are more likely than urban women 

to be literate. Above age 60, less 

than 15 percent of India’s rural 

women can read and write.

Figure 8-5. 

Percent Literate by Age, Sex, and Urban and Rural Residence in India: 2001

Source: India 2001 census.

0

20

40

60

80

100

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Percent

Male, urban

Female, rural

Age

Female, urban

Male, rural
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 97

Educational Level

Correlates With Older

People’s Employment

and Earnings

The added economic value of 

an education has been widely 

researched and documented. 

Employment rates increase with 

educational status, regardless of 

age. Data on older workers (aged 

50 to 64) in Germany, Bulgaria, 

and the United Kingdom in 2005 

illustrate the pattern (Figure 8-6). 

People with relatively high education are much more likely to be 

employed than those with low 

education. The same gradient seen 

in Figure 8-6 was observed in all 

27 countries of the European Union 

(Zaidi and Fuchs, 2006). The lowest employment rate (23 percent) 

was observed among people with 

only basic schooling in the Slovak 

Republic and the highest (86 percent) was among older workers in 

Sweden with tertiary education.

Earnings also increase with educational level. At most ages, higher 

educational attainment correlates 

with higher earnings (Day and 

Newburger, 2002). U.S. data for 

full-time workers aged 25 and 

over in 2007 (U.S. Bureau of Labor 

Statistics, 2008) show a clear 

gradient by educational level, with 

median weekly earnings of $424 

for those without a high school 

diploma, $610 for high school 

graduates, and $1,086 for people 

with at least a bachelor’s degree. 

Figure 8-7 illustrates differences in 

earnings by educational attainment 

for people aged 25 to 64 in 11 

countries in 2005. Relative to those 

who completed upper-secondary 

but not tertiary education, earnings for people with less than 

upper-secondary education generally were 20 percent to 30 percent 

lower, while those with tertiary 

education had noticeably higher 

earnings. Data from Eastern Europe 

and the former Soviet Union also 

provide evidence of increasing 

returns from education (Chawla 

et al., 2007). 

Figure 8-6. 

Employment Rate for People Aged 50 to 64 

in Germany, Bulgaria, and the United Kingdom 

by Education Level: 2005 

Source: Zaidi and Fuchs, 2006.

Germany Bulgaria United Kingdom

Low Medium High

Level of education:

41

32

60

54 52

76

72

66

81
98 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8-7. 

Relative Earnings for People Aged 25 to 64 in 11 Countries 

by Educational Attainment: 2005

(Completed upper secondary and postsecondary but not tertiary = 100)

United States

United Kingdom

Switzerland

New Zealand

Israel

Hungary

Germany

France

Czech Republic

Austria

Australia

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2007c.

Below upper secondary

Tertiary

175

155

156

132

151

215

156

144

181

152

131

67

69

76

78

79

73

88

86

72

71

81
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 99

Education Improves

Older People’s Physical

Functioning and SelfReported Health

The positive effects of education 

extend beyond employment and 

earnings. Education also affects 

health through pathways such 

as health care, environmental 

exposure, and lifestyle (Adler and 

Newman, 2002; and Mirowsky 

and Ross, 1998). The association between education and other 

positive socioeconomic factors 

and health at older ages in Western 

societies as well as in Asia have 

been consistently documented (e.g., 

Beydoun and Popkin, 2005; Jiang et 

al., 2002; and Zimmer et al., 2004). 

Survey data from China show that 

the prevalence of activity limitations among China’s older people 

varies by educational attainment 

(He et al., 2007). Limitations 

in activities of daily living and 

mobility were highest among the 

illiterate and decreased progressively with each level of education. The largest difference was 

observed between the illiterate 

and those with primary education, 

indicating that even a few years 

of education may be associated 

with better physical functioning at 

older ages (Figure 8-8). Another 

study found that in Taiwan, education was a predictor of functional 

limitations, but not the severity 

of the limitations, in older people 

(Zimmer, Hermalin, and Lin, 2002). 

The study’s authors noted that 

older people with higher educational attainment could better 

afford higher quality and more 

constant medical care throughout 

their lives. They also found that the 

educational level of adult children 

influenced their parents’ functional 

status by providing additional 

resources for the parents’ care. 

Improvements in education seem 

likely to contribute to improvements in health and functioning among future older people 

(Freedman and Martin, 1999).

Figure 8-8. 

Percentage of People Aged 60 and Over With Activity Limitations in China by

Educational Attainment and Urban/Rural Residence: 2000

1

 ADL is activity of daily living.

Source: He et al., 2007.

24.9

13.1

8.6

56.8

34.0

27.1

32.8

22.3

14.9

24.8

13.6

11.5

48.6

29.5

19.6

30.7

22.3 23.1

Household activity

limitations

Mobility

limitations

ADL1

limitations

Household activity

limitations

Mobility

limitations

ADL1

limitations

Illiterate Primary school Junior high school or higher

Urban Rural
100 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Access to and use of the World Wide Web is increasingly important for older people. The Internet plays 

a central role in communicating (both informally and 

officially) information about health and health-related 

products, providing tools for financial planning and 

investment, banking, filing taxes, and enrolling in 

government programs, as well as many other activities, such as online shopping and entertainment. 

The ability to access such services from home may 

be especially important for infirm or homebound 

older people. Some societies have seen the rise of 

computer literacy services targeted to seniors. Since 

1996, the Home Computing Network has opened 

more than 300 schools in Japan. The average age of 

students is 60 and about three-quarters are women, 

mostly housewives (McNicol, 2006). 

In 2005, one-quarter of Japanese adults aged 60 and 

over had online access. The share of older Canadian 

households (head aged 65 and over) with Internet 

access rose from 3 percent to 23 percent between 

1997 and 2003 (Turcotte and Schellenberg, 2007). 

Data from the Pew Internet & American Life Project 

(2008) in the United States show that Internet use 

has been rising most rapidly among people aged 65 

and over. In late 2007, 37 percent of this age group 

reported using the Internet, with men and women 

equally likely to be Internet users. The picture in 

the United Kingdom is very different—the usage 

level among people aged 65 and over was 16 percent in 2007, and nearly 4 out of 5 users were men 

(United Kingdom Office of Communications, 2007). 

Older people in the United Kingdom who do use the 

Internet are the most active of any age group in terms 

of hours online per month (Figure 8-9). A 15-country 

study in Europe in 2001 (Senior Watch, 2002) found 

that the highest level of Internet use among people 

aged 50 and over was in Sweden, where 47 percent 

had used the Internet at least once in their lifetime. 

The average across all 15 nations was 22 percent.

Figure 8-9. 

Internet Use in the United Kingdom by Age: April 2007

Source: United Kingdom Office of Communications, 2007.

Age

Average monthly hours online per active user Percent using Internet at least once in April

0

10

20

30

40

50

12-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Box 8-1.

Silver Surfers—Older People and the Internet
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 101

Financial literacy is increasingly 

important as many countries switch 

part or all of their pension systems 

away from defined-benefit schemes 

toward defined-contribution 

arrangements that require individual workers to more closely manage 

their retirement assets (see Chapter 

10). In recent years, government 

agencies, private foundations, 

school systems, and employers 

have initiated education programs 

designed to help people improve 

their financial literacy (Hogarth, 

2006; and Lerman and Bell, 2006). 

The U.S. Federal Reserve System, 

for example, is actively promoting 

awareness of the importance of 

financial education by increasing 

access to financial information and 

providing resources in collaboration 

with educational and community 

organizations.

Health Literacy and

Financial Literacy Are

Gaining Attention

Literacy today often goes beyond 

basic reading and writing to 

include concepts such as health literacy and financial literacy. Health 

literacy is the degree to which 

people have the capacity to obtain, 

process, and understand basic 

health information and services 

needed to make appropriate health 

decisions (Institute of Medicine, 

2004). People with adequate health 

knowledge are better equipped to 

manage their health, utilize health 

services, and function in the health 

care environment. Studies have 

shown that many older patients 

have inadequate or marginal health 

literacy (Gazmararian et al., 1999) 

and that inadequate health literacy 

independently predicts overall 

mortality and cardiovascular death 

among community-dwelling older 

people (Baker et al., 2007).

Financial literacy refers to understanding basic financial concepts 

and the ability to interpret financial 

information that affects a person’s 

savings, retirement planning, mortgages, other financial decisions, 

and wealth accumulation. Studies 

in the United States and other 

countries have found that financial 

illiteracy is widespread. A majority 

of U.S. workers do not understand 

well the rules governing social 

security benefits, and workers who 

are less well-off and most dependent on social security are the least 

informed (Gustman and Steinmeier, 

2004; Lusardi and Mitchell, 2007; 

and Lusardi, 2008).

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 103

Rapid growth of the older population may put pressure on a nation’s 

financial resources, in large part 

because of the need to fund systems to provide financial support 

after retirement. Many older people, 

however, continue to work beyond 

normal retirement age. Globally, 

older workers share several characteristics. Labor force participation 

declines as people near retirement 

age, and participation rates are 

higher for older men than for older 

women. In all countries, workers 

aged 65 and over constitute a small 

proportion of the total labor force. 

Their share of the total labor force 

in the 52 study countries ranged 

from less than 1 percent to about 7 

percent. While there are global similarities among older workers, there 

also are clear regional differences. 

The rate of labor force participation 

of older workers varies considerably and generally is lower in developed than in developing countries. 

One recent phenomenon is a reversal of the previous downward trend 

in labor force participation of older 

men in many developed countries. 

Examining trends in the labor force 

participation of the older population 

gives a clearer picture of their contribution and helps policymakers 

plan for the financing of retirement.

Labor Force

Participation at

Ages 65 and Over

Exceeds 30 Percent

in Some Countries

Older people’s labor force participation rates are lower than those 

of younger people and become 

progressively lower with increasing age. In most countries, labor 

force participation rates for people 

aged 65 and over are much lower 

than those of young or middleaged populations and also those 

of preretirement people aged 55 

to 59 and 60 to 64 (Table 9-1).1

However, there are regional differences. While people aged 65 and 

over in Europe have relatively low 

(less than 10 percent) participation 

rates, one-third or more of this age 

group is economically active in 

some developing countries. 

Table 9-1 shows that a higher percentage of older men than women 

1 See Appendix Table B-8 for selected 

years of labor force participation rates by age 

and sex in 51 study countries. 

are economically active in every 

country. Rates of economic activity 

for men are higher in most developing than developed countries. 

The difference is especially pronounced at ages 65 and over; twothirds of men in this age group are 

in the labor force in Bangladesh, 

Guatemala, and Uganda. Economic 

activity rates for older women also 

tend to be higher in developing 

than in developed countries. Not 

surprisingly, many older people 

in predominantly rural agrarian 

societies work of necessity, while 

“retirement” may be an option for a 

limited segment of wealthier older 

people. Some national data may 

understate the economic activity 

of women, particularly in developing countries where much of the 

work that women engage in is not 

counted or captured in censuses 

and labor force surveys or is not 

considered to be market-related 

work. Many of the activities of 

older women, such as subsistence 

agriculture or household industries, 

often are not well documented 

by conventional data collection 

methods (Hedman, Perucci, and 

Sundström, 1996).

CHAPTER 9.

Labor Force Participation 

and Retirement
104 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 9-1 displays data on formal economic activity for older 

men and women in four countries, 

chosen to represent different levels 

of economic development and 

different regions. Some patterns 

mentioned above are apparent in 

these data—older women have 

lower participation rates than older 

men, and participation rates for 

each sex decrease with age. The 

work status of older workers differs 

substantially among the countries. 

In Madagascar, nearly everyone 

between the ages of 55 and 65 

works. Even at ages 70 to 74, more 

than half of all women and nearly 

three-quarters of men are economically active. In Pakistan, male 

participation rates under age 65 are 

similar to those in New Zealand, but 

the Pakistani rates are much higher 

after age 65. Female participation 

rates in Pakistan appear low for a 

developing country and may be subject to some of the reporting biases 

mentioned above. By contrast, Italy 

represents the European experience 

of low participation rates among 

older workers. At ages 65 to 69, 

just 13 percent of men and 3 percent of women remain in the labor 

force. Such crossnational differences 

in levels of labor force activity are 

associated with societal wealth. 

Countries with high gross national 

products tend to have lower labor 

force participation rates at older 

ages than do low-income countries 

Table 9-1.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex for Selected Countries: Circa 2006

Country

Year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Western Europe

Austria ...... .......... 2006 94.4 93.1 87.6 69.1 21.9 5.5 81.7 82.6 75.0 41.9 10.1 2.2

Belgium .... ........... 2006 93.6 91.4 85.2 58.3 22.6 2.7 82.0 72.8 61.1 36.2 10.3 1.0

France ...... .......... 2005 94.6 94.1 90.3 62.5 15.4 1.6 80.8 83.2 77.3 53.4 13.4 0.8

Germany ..... ......... 2006 93.8 94.3 91.2 82.0 42.3 5.0 79.7 83.5 78.7 65.6 24.4 2.2

Greece ... ............. 2006 95.4 95.6 89.4 74.0 45.2 7.4 74.2 64.0 51.3 33.5 21.8 2.1

Italy .................. 2006 91.2 94.0 89.0 58.0 28.9 6.1 67.0 62.3 54.0 32.8 10.2 1.2

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ... ............ 2006 86.7 84.1 79.2 66.1 38.6 4.6 79.2 82.8 76.5 53.4 11.7 1.5

Czech Republic ... ..... 2006 95.8 94.6 90.6 83.1 36.1 6.6 77.3 91.8 88.2 51.2 13.1 2.5

Poland .... ............ 2006 92.5 84.7 75.7 51.6 26.8 8.2 79.3 77.9 59.8 25.3 12.4 3.3

Northern America/

Oceania

Australia ... ........... 2006 89.9 89.2 86.1 75.7 56.4 12.1 73.0 78.3 73.4 57.9 33.5 4.3

Canada ... ............ 2006 92.0 90.8 87.8 76.1 53.3 12.1 81.8 82.6 78.1 62.3 37.1 5.2

New Zealand ... ........ 2006 91.1 92.6 91.6 87.2 73.1 16.8 74.3 81.9 80.0 71.7 50.0 8.0

United States ... ....... 2006 91.9 89.8 86.1 77.7 58.6 20.3 75.2 77.2 74.7 66.7 47.0 11.7

Africa

South Africa ..... ....... 2003 82.9 80.8 73.7 63.5 40.6 25.6 65.4 62.6 50.9 38.4 15.2 9.6

Uganda ... ............. 2003 (NA) 97.1 94.6 93.9 91.4 72.9 (NA) 93.5 92.2 87.1 80.3 53.7

Asia

Bangladesh ... ......... 2003 99.2 99.5 99.2 97.3 87.8 66.1 27.3 22.6 19.9 17.1 13.4 8.7

Japan ......... ........ 2006 96.1 96.9 95.7 93.2 70.9 29.3 68.0 74.0 70.5 60.3 40.2 13.0

Pakistan ..... .......... 2006 97.3 97.6 95.8 90.7 77.5 49.3 23.1 26.5 22.5 22.8 19.1 11.5

Singapore ... .......... 2006 97.1 96.5 93.3 81.9 62.5 22.0 74.5 66.2 59.5 44.6 26.2 8.3

South Korea ...... ..... 2006 90.5 93.1 89.7 79.9 68.5 42.0 61.4 64.4 58.5 49.7 43.8 22.7

Turkey ... ............. 2006 93.2 82.0 65.4 51.3 39.8 22.0 30.8 24.8 21.8 18.5 14.5 6.6

Latin America

Argentina ... ........... 2006 95.1 95.3 92.6 87.3 76.8 28.3 68.3 67.2 62.1 55.6 38.7 10.7

Brazil ... .............. 2004 94.7 92.1 85.8 77.6 64.9 35.1 71.6 65.4 57.3 45.5 30.9 14.1

Chile ......... ......... 2006 93.9 95.3 91.4 86.1 73.2 26.9 55.6 51.9 48.4 40.1 25.3 7.7

Guatemala ... ......... 2004 94.7 91.4 93.8 92.5 92.2 66.7 52.0 53.2 44.6 39.7 30.3 23.7

Mexico ... ............. 2006 96.0 95.4 92.5 88.2 74.0 45.8 52.6 50.4 44.0 35.3 28.5 14.7

Peru . . . ............... 2006 95.3 98.7 94.6 87.0 65.5 28.8 70.1 67.0 56.2 39.2 34.9 15.3

Uruguay ... ............ 2006 99.7 97.9 96.4 91.2 68.8 19.7 75.4 75.9 69.4 58.7 39.0 8.4

(NA) Not available.

Source: International Labour Organization, <http://laborsta.ilo.org>, accessed on February 8, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 105

Figure 9-1. 

Labor Force Participation Rates for Italy, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Madagascar 

by Age and Sex: 2006

(Percent economically active)

75 and over

70 to 74

65 to 69

60 to 64

55 to 59

75 and over

70 to 74

65 to 69

60 to 64

55 to 59

75 and over

70 to 74

65 to 69

60 to 64

55 to 59

75 and over

70 to 74

65 to 69

60 to 64

55 to 59

1

 Data for Madagascar refer to 2005. 

Source: International Labour Organization, <http://laborsta.ilo.org>, accessed on February 5, 2008.

Male

Female

Italy

New Zealand

Pakistan

Madagascar1

97.4

98.4

95.0

97.7

65.2

86.8

55.2

72.8

36.5

64.0

22.8

90.7

19.9

77.5

16.2

67.4

10.2

47.8

6.1

27.9

71.7

87.2

50.0

73.1

20.6

35.9

8.0

13.7

1.0

3.8

32.8

58.0

10.2

28.9

3.0

12.5

0.9

5.3

0.4

1.8
106 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

(United Nations Department of 

Economic and Social Affairs, 2007a). 

In richer countries, long-standing 

social security and pension programs allow older workers to retire 

with at least a modicum of financial 

security. Such programs often are 

unavailable to large segments of 

society in poorer countries.

New Trend in Labor

Force Participation 

Since 1990

A prominent economic concern in 

some countries is the shrinking 

of the workforce relative to the 

number of pensioners. Typically, 

this ratio declines as people live 

longer and as their participation 

in the workforce decreases. From 

the 1950s to the mid-1980s, labor 

force participation rates for older 

men declined in most developed 

countries. Beginning in the 1990s, 

this trend reversed (Figure 9-2). In 

a 15-country group of European 

Union nations, the aggregate male 

employment rate for ages 55 to 64 

was higher in 2006 than in 1994.2

2 The employment rate is the number of 

employed people in a given age group as a 

percentage of all people in that age group. 

This measure is slightly different than the 

labor force participation rate, which usually is 

defined as the fraction of the population in a 

given age group who are working or actively 

looking for work.

A similar trend has been observed 

in Australia, New Zealand, and the 

United States, and this phenomenon is discussed further at the 

end of this chapter. Among women 

in many developed countries, there 

has been an increase in labor force 

participation at older ages for at 

least the past two decades. 

The picture in other parts of 

the world is less clear. Unlike in 

Western Europe, Northern America, 

and Oceania, where many countries experienced an increase in 

older people’s economic activity, 

the downward trend continued in 

much of Eastern Europe. Increasing 

Figure 9-2. 

Aggregate European Union Employment Rate for People 

Aged 55 to 64: 1994 to 2006

(Aggregate data for 15 European Union countries) 

Note: The countries included are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,

Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Source: Eurostat, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu>, accessed on February 5, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Percent 

Women

Men
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 107

participation rates for people aged 

55 to 64 were seen in Latin America 

(Figure 9-3), but this was not the 

case among people over age 64. No 

trend appeared in Asia. Some countries (e.g., Indonesia, Singapore, 

South Korea, Thailand) experienced 

increases in both male and female 

labor force participation while others (e.g., Japan, Philippines, and 

Turkey) saw decreases. 

Figure 9-3. 

Labor Force Participation Rate for People Aged 55 to 64

in Six Latin American Countries by Sex: 

Mid-/Late 1990s and Circa 2006 Mid-/late 1990s

Circa 2006

Uruguay

Peru

Mexico

Costa Rica1

Chile

Argentina

Uruguay

Peru

Mexico

Costa Rica1

Chile

Argentina

1

 Data for Costa Rica refer to ages 50 to 59. 

Source: International Labour Organization, <http://laborsta.ilo.org>, accessed on February 5, 2008.

Male

Female

80.6

78.4

82.1

90.3

80.0

82.6

73.9

79.3

80.2

85.4

77.1

73.6

49.2

37.1

32.2

39.1

33.1

47.8

31.9

43.5

27.8

22.2

27.1

29.2
108 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Agriculture Still

an Important Source

of Employment for

Older People

In spite of the general global shift 

from agriculture and heavy industries toward services and light 

industries, the agricultural sector 

remains an important provider 

of employment for older people 

in many countries. Crossnational 

data from Asia in the latter 1990s 

showed that well over half of men 

aged 60 and over were engaged 

in farming or other agricultural 

activities (Hermalin et al., 2002). 

In Malaysia in 2000, 20 percent of 

people aged 50 to 54, 33 percent 

of those aged 55 to 59, and 45 

percent of people aged 60 to 64 

worked in the agricultural and fishery sector (Aizan, Norazizan, and 

Mohmad, 2006). 

This sector also is important in 

some developed countries. For 

example, the percentage distribution of employment by economic 

sector in Ireland shows that in 

2006, almost half of working men 

aged 65 and over were farmers 

(Figure 9-4). European Union agricultural statistics for 2005–2006 

indicate that more than half of all 

agricultural holders were 55 years 

and older. People aged 65 and 

over represented nearly half of all 

small agricultural unit holders in 

several European Union countries 

(Bulgaria, Greece, France, and Italy) 

and more than half in Belgium, 

Spain, and Portugal (Figure 9-5).3

In many countries, the service sector has become most prominent in 

the employment of older people. 

3 A small agricultural unit is less than 1 

European Size Unit (ESU). An ESU is a measure 

of the economic size of a farm business 

based on gross margin from each farm commodity. Roughly, 1 ESU corresponds to either 

1.3 hectares of cereals, 1 dairy cow, 25 ewes, 

or some combination of these.

In Canada in 2006, about threequarters of workers aged 55 to 

64 were engaged in services. The 

largest share of jobs was in retail 

and wholesale trade, followed by 

health care and social assistance 

(Marshall and Ferrao, 2007). About 

the same proportion (77 percent) 

of Singapore’s older workers (84 

percent of women and 74 percent 

of men) were employed in the 

service sector (Singapore Ministry 

of Manpower, 2007). According to 

European Union statistics, most 

of the overall rise in employment 

among older workers between 

2000 and 2006 occurred in the 

fields of health, business services, 

education, social work, and real 

estate, reflecting an ongoing shift 

toward a knowledge-based economy (European Union, 2007).

Figure 9-4. 

Employment for People Aged 65 and Over in 

Ireland by Sector and Sex: 2006 

Source: Ireland Central Statistics Office, 2007. 

Male

Female

Construction,

transport, and

other production

industries 17.6%

Construction,

transport, and 

other production

industries 4.5%

Agriculture,

forestry, and 

fishing 48.7%

Agriculture,

forestry, and 

fishing 12.7%

Hotels, restaurants,

and other

services 10.0%

Hotels, 

restaurants,

and other

services 20.1%

Public

administration,

financial services,

education,

and health

47.2%

Public administration,

financial services,

education, and health

14.0%

Wholesale and

retail trade 9.7%

Wholesale and

retail trade 15.5%
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 109

Different Bridges

to Retirement

Have Emerged

Just as the propensity to work at 

older ages varies considerably 

from country to country, so too 

do patterns of retirement and the 

concept of retirement itself. During 

periods of economic contraction 

in highly industrialized nations, 

governments may actively encourage older workers to cease active 

employment at relatively young 

ages. On the other hand, when the 

labor market is tight, governments 

may look for methods to entice 

older workers to remain in or reenter the labor force.

In developed countries, retirement 

from the workforce was an event 

that occurred almost exclusively 

at a regulated age until the 1950s, 

with little possibility of receiving 

a pension prior to that age. Since 

then, countries have adopted a 

wide range of approaches to providing old age security, and different potential routes have emerged 

for people making the transition 

from labor force participation to 

retirement. Some of these different 

routes are working part-time, leaving career jobs for transition jobs, 

or leaving the labor force because 

of illness or disability. Private 

employer-employee arrangements 

can also facilitate early retirement, 

sometimes in the form of “bridge 

pensions” that provide income until 

an individual becomes age-eligible 

for public benefits (OECD, 2002). 

Figure 9-5. 

People Aged 65 and Over as a Percentage of All Small Agricultural

Unit Holders in Nine Countries: 2004

Note: A small agricultural unit is less than 1 European Size Unit (ESU). An ESU is a measure of the economic size of a farm business 

based on gross margin from each farm commodity. Roughly, 1 ESU corresponds to either 1.3 hectares of cereals, 1 dairy cow, 

25 ewes, or some combination of these.

Source: Benoist and Burak, 2007.

Belgium Bulgaria France Greece Italy Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain

55.6

46.6 48.3

54.7

46.1

49.1

57.0

42.3 41.7
110 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Part-Time Work 

Increases With Age

Many older workers work part-time 

as a transition to retirement. Older 

women are more likely than older 

men to work part-time, and the proportion of older workers who work 

part-time increases with age. 

Figure 9-6 illustrates the change 

with age in the proportion of 

people working part-time in the 

European Union in 2002. The percentage of part-time male workers 

aged 65 and over was more than 

six times that of men aged 50 to 

64. The percentage of women 

working part-time increased slightly 

from ages 15 to 64, then jumped 

to 63 percent among those aged 

65 and over. The same age pattern 

has been observed in New Zealand 

and the United States. A study of 

four countries in Asia found that 

older (aged 60 and over) women 

in Singapore and Taiwan were 

about twice as likely as their male 

counterparts to work part-time 

(Hermalin et al., 2002). Data from 

the English Longitudinal Study of 

Ageing (ELSA) showed that, of people between age 50 and the state 

pension age4 who were working in 

2002–2003, 43 percent of women 

were working part-time compared 

with 10 percent of men (Emmerson 

and Tetlow, 2006). Figure 9-7 

shows data for three age groupings 

of older workers by the number of 

weekly hours worked. Consistent 

with other data for the European 

Union, the number of weekly hours 

worked decreased with age, and 

fewer than half of working women 

aged 60 to 64 worked an average 

of 35 or more hours per week.

Part-time work among older 

workers has become increasingly 

4 The state pension age in the United 

Kingdom is 65 for men and between 60 and 

65 for women. For more information, see 

<www.thepensionservice.gov.uk>. 

common in Europe in recent years, 

and research holds that the trend is 

associated with fewer opportunities 

for training and career progression, 

weaker job tenure, lower salary 

levels, and less access to supplementary payments and social protection benefits (Corral and Isusi, 

2007). The trend toward part-time 

work (also called flexible work or 

gradual retirement) may also be 

a function of increasing government support for such arrangements (Vickerstaff, 2007). A rising 

incidence of disability, lifestyle 

choices, and economic necessity 

were cited as reasons for the fact 

that older people in New Zealand 

were more than twice as likely to 

work part-time as workers between 

ages 15 and 64 (Statistics New 

Zealand, 2007). Having a “phased” 

rather than a “cliff edge” exit from 

the labor market was one of the 

preferences found among respondents in the ELSA. Phased retirement in the United States appears 

to be gaining popularity among 

both employers and employees, 

notably in areas that have a current 

or projected shortage of workers 

(e.g., public school teachers and 

administrators) (Brainard, 2002; 

and Watson Wyatt Worldwide, 

2004). Legislative changes have 

sought to ease restrictions regarding older employees’ receipt of 

pension benefits, and a congressional research report indicated that 

41 percent of men and 35 percent 

of women aged 55 to 64 who 

reported receiving pension income 

in 2005 were employed in 2007 

(Purcell, 2007).

Figure 9-6. 

Percentage of All Workers Who Work Part-Time 

in the European Union by Age and Sex: 2002

Source: Corral and Isusi, 2007.

15 to 24 25 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over

Male Female

17.1

31.1

3.9

32.3

6.7

37.2

45.2

63.3
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 111

Unemployment

Relatively Low Among

Older Workers

Older workers typically have lower 

levels of unemployment than 

do younger workers. In developed countries, unemployment 

rates for workers aged 50 to 64 

often are less than 5 percent. In 

almost all member countries of 

the Organisation for Economic 

Co-Operation and Development 

(OECD) in 2004—including Turkey, 

Mexico, and South Korea—the 

unemployment rate for older workers was lower than for workers 

aged 25 to 49 (OECD, 2006b).

Establishing a long-time trend in 

the unemployment rates of older 

people is hindered by limited data, 

effects of the business cycle, and 

differences in definitions across 

countries. Data for Europe, for 

both men and women aged 55 to 

64, show that unemployment rates 

were somewhat lower during the 

period 2002–2005 than they had 

been in the mid-1990s. This was 

true for younger age categories 

(ages 15 to 24 and ages 25 to 54) 

as well (OECD, 2006a).

Although the unemployment rate 

may be lower for older than for 

younger workers, older people who 

are unemployed tend to remain 

unemployed longer than their 

younger counterparts. In almost 

all OECD countries, long-term 

unemployment is more prevalent 

among people aged 50 to 64 than 

among people aged 25 to 49. And 

once unemployed, the likelihood 

of finding work is much lower for 

the older unemployed than for 

younger job seekers. OECD (2006b) 

reports that in Belgium, Finland, 

France, Germany, Greece, Poland, 

and Sweden, fewer than 15 percent 

of older people who reported being 

unemployed in 2003 were working 

in 2004. The situation appeared 

Figure 9-7. 

Number of Working Hours per Week for Employed Older Workers 

in the European Union by Age and Sex: 2005

Source: Zaidi and Fuchs, 2006.

50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64

35 and over

86.8%

35 and over

84.1%

35 and over

76.0%

Under 30 

9.7% Under 30

16.7%

Under 30

7.4%

30 to 34

5.8%

30 to 34 

6.2%

30 to 34

7.3%

35 and over

61.3%

35 and over

55.0% 35 and over

44.1%

Under 30 

34.5%

Under 30

45.7%

Under 30

28.7%

30 to 34

10.0% 30 to 34 

10.5% 30 to 34

10.2%

50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64

Male

Female
112 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

much better in Norway and the 

United Kingdom, where about 40 

percent were reemployed, but in all 

countries with data, older workers 

fared less well than younger workers in securing reemployment. 

Long-term unemployment is one 

contributor to the ranks of discouraged workers. The definition of 

discouraged worker differs from 

country to country, but the basic 

concept refers to people who 

are no longer looking for work 

because they think there is no 

work available or because they do 

not know where to look. Workers 

who become discouraged from 

actively seeking work are no longer 

considered part of the labor force. 

Movement of older workers into 

the discouraged-worker category 

stems from several factors, among 

them age discrimination; selfperceptions of productivity related 

to changed health status; and 

changes in occupational structures, 

requiring a more-educated workforce or different skills that favor 

younger over older workers (Alpass 

and Mortimer, 2007). All of these 

factors may prompt some older 

workers to transition to retirement.

Crossnational data on discouraged 

workers are sparse. One comparison of 13 countries in the mid1990s indicates that older workers 

made up a disproportionate share 

of all discouraged workers in all but 

one country (Sweden). People aged 

55 to 64 accounted for a small proportion of all economically active 

people, but they accounted for a 

larger proportion of all discouraged 

workers (OECD, 1995). 

Figure 9-8. 

Older Workers Not Working Because of Illness or Disability 

in 20 Countries: 2004 

(Percentage of all people aged 50 to 64 not working and who left a job in the previous 12 months)

France

Italy 

Greece

Belgium

Portugal

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

Netherlands

Slovakia

Hungary

Czech Republic

Ireland

Spain

Austria

Switzerland

Poland

United Kingdom

Finland

Norway

Source: Estimated from Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2006b.

21.5

19.0

19.0

18.0

17.0

16.0

14.0

13.0

13.0

12.0

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

4.0

3.0
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 113

Invalidity and

Disability Programs

May Be Avenues to

Retirement

Another gateway to retirement 

for older workers has been acceptance into a disability program. 

During the latter decades of the 

twentieth century, economic recessions and high unemployment led 

some European governments (e.g., 

Germany, the Netherlands, and 

Sweden) to promote retirement by 

expanding the scope of disability 

schemes and relaxing the eligibility criteria for long-term sickness 

benefits. In many countries in the 

late 1980s and early 1990s, disability pensioners made up the largest 

proportion of all early pensioners. 

Data for 1990 showed that the 

proportion of older people receiving 

an invalidity benefit could be large; 

for example, nearly one-third of all 

people aged 60 to 64 in Finland and 

Sweden and nearly half of the same 

age group in Norway (OECD, 1995). 

While numerous nations have 

modified or revamped the eligibility rules for disability/invalidity 

benefits during the last two 

decades, such programs continue 

to play a prominent role in the 

retirement process. In addition to 

people who may have retired due 

to disability and sickness, many 

inactive older workers may report 

illness or disability. Data from the 

2004 European Labor Force Survey 

show that among people aged 50 

to 64 who were not working but 

who left a job in the 12 months 

prior to the survey, 18 percent or 

more reported illness or disability as the main reason in Poland, 

Finland, the United Kingdom, and 

Norway (Figure 9-8). Older men 

were somewhat more likely than 

women to report illness or disability as a reason for not working in a 

25-nation European Union aggregate; among older women in some 

countries, the most important 

reason for economic inactivity was 

neither retirement nor disability/

illness but rather personal or family 

responsibilities (e.g., caregiving) 

that keep someone voluntarily out 

of the workforce (Eurostat, 2006).

Actual Retirement

Age Often Lower Than 

Statutory Age

During the second half of the 

twentieth century, many industrialized nations lowered the standard 

(statutory) age at which people 

become fully entitled to public pension benefits. The downward shift 

in statutory age was accompanied 

by an increase in the number of 

public early retirement schemes 

and a corresponding increase in the 

number of retirees leaving the labor 

force to avail themselves of such 

programs (Tracy and Adams, 1989).

One important issue for policymakers and pension funds is the 

relationship between the standard 

(statutory) retirement age and 

“actual” retirement age, the average 

age at which retirement benefits 

are awarded. If the latter is lower 

than the statutory age, pension 

systems will be disbursing benefits 

for more years per recipient than 

was originally intended. The actual 

average age of retirement is lower 

than the statutory age in a large 

majority of industrialized countries. 

In many countries, the average man 

retires 3 to 5 years before the standard retirement age (Figure 9-9). 

Differences tend to be smaller for 

women, reflecting the fact that official retirement ages may differ by 

gender; in about half of European 

Union member states, the retirement age for women is lower than 

that for men (Eurostat, 2007b). 
114 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 9-9. 

Official Versus Actual Average Retirement Age for 

Seven Countries by Sex: 2006 Official

Actual

Spain

Netherlands

Italy

Norway

France

Finland

Austria

Spain

Netherlands

Italy

Norway

France

Finland

Austria

Note: Average retirement age based on a Eurostat probability model considering the relative changes of age-specific labor force activity

rates from one year to another. 

Source: Eurostat, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu>, accessed on January 24, 2008; and U.S. Social Security Administration, 2006. 

Male

Female

65.0

61.8

65.0

62.1

65.0

60.5

67.0

64.4

60.0

58.7

65.0

62.3

65.0

61.3

65.0

62.3

65.0

62.1

60.0

60.0

67.0

63.2

60.0

59.1

65.0

62.5

60.0

60.6
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 115

Adults Spending

Greater Portion of

Life in Retirement

Gains in life expectancy during 

the twentieth century coincided 

with declining retirement ages 

so that many individuals spent a 

higher proportion of their lifetime 

in retirement than was true for 

preceding generations. Figure 9-10 

shows, for selected countries at 

two points in time, the number 

of years that an average worker 

could expect to live after he or she 

retired from the labor force. These 

data were generated using actual 

ages of retirement in 1970 and 

2004 and estimates of remaining 

life expectancy at those ages in 

1970 and in 2004 (OECD, 2006b). 

The length of time spent “in retirement” has increased markedly 

for both men and women. Men in 

some developed countries now 

spend more than 20 years in retirement. Because women live longer 

than men, and may be able to 

retire at an earlier age, the length 

of retirement for women typically 

is between 21 and 26 years. Years 

of life expectancy after retirement 

essentially doubled for women in 

France, Portugal, and Spain during 

the 34-year period.

Public Pension System

Provisions Can Induce

Early Retirement

Crossnational research over the 

past 15 years has documented 

that national differences in labor 

force participation at older ages 

often is a consequence (intended or 

unintended) of retirement provisions and/or tax policy (Cremer, 

Lozachmeur, and Pestieau, 2006; 

and Duval, 2003). In some countries, retirement benefit payments 

may increase for people who postpone their retirement beyond the 

allowable early retirement age. In 

other countries, there is no benefit 

Figure 9-10. 

Years of Life Expectancy After Retirement in 

Ten Countries by Sex: 2004 Versus 1970

(Based on average actual age at retirement) 2004

1970

Japan

Portugal

United States

Sweden

Germany

Australia

Finland

Spain

Italy

France

Japan

Portugal

United States

Sweden

Germany

Australia

Finland

Spain

Italy

France

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2006b. 

Male

Female

14.8

8.5

15.2

7.1

17.1

11.0

17.8

11.9

18.9

10.5

18.9

10.9

19.6

10.8

19.6

10.7

20.6

13.1

21.4

10.8

22.0

13.1

18.6

9.4

21.0

14.7

22.9

14.9

23.8

13.9

21.2

12.4

23.8

16.4

22.6

11.1

23.9

18.4

26.2

13.4
116 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

to be gained by postponing retirement. One synthesis of various 

studies in industrialized nations 

(Gruber and Wise, 1999) looked 

at the “implicit tax on work,” a 

concept that contrasts the longer 

stream of benefit payments that a 

worker would receive by retiring 

at an early age with the shorter 

stream of payments that a worker 

might receive by delaying his or 

her retirement. In France, for example, social security benefits are first 

available at age 60, and there is 

no increase in the eventual benefit payment rate for people who 

retire after age 60. In the United 

States, social security benefits may 

be initially obtained at age 62, but 

the benefit payment rate is less 

than if a worker retires later. The 

same study also considered public 

pension incentives to retire early 

(more formally, a “tax force to 

retire,” defined as the total of the 

annual tax rates on work between 

the ages of 55 and 69). Plotting 

this variable against a measure of 

unused productive capacity (the 

percentage of people aged 55 to 

65 who were not working) revealed 

a strong crossnational relationship. This finding suggests that 

the financial structure of national 

social security systems may reward 

early retirement, and that attempts 

to encourage increased labor force 

participation at older ages may be 

highly affected by policy changes 

in these systems.

Gruber and Wise highlight the 

importance of focusing on the 

features of social security systems 

when studying labor force participation at older ages. Their subsequent work assessed the fiscal 

implications of pension program 

provisions and concluded that a 

3-year increase in program eligibility ages could reduce current 

program costs by more than onequarter (Gruber and Wise, 2007). 

Developed Country

Trend Toward Earlier

Retirement Has Changed

A majority of developed countries 

have initiated policies to encourage more work and alter retirement 

among older workers (Zaidi and 

Fuchs, 2006). As seen in Figure 9-2, 

employment rates of older workers 

in developed countries have been 

rising. This trend may, in part, 

reflect changes in government 

policies. Some nations have raised 

(or are considering an increase in) 

the statutory retirement age as one 

means to offset the fiscal pressures 

of population aging in addition 

to fostering other policies that 

encourage labor force participation 

at older ages.5 Raising the participation rates of people aged 55 to 

64 is one of the European Union’s 

main social policy objectives 

(Leibfritz, 2003).6 Numerous countries have restricted the eligibility 

for labor force withdrawal due to 

disability, invalidity, and/or difficulty finding employment (OECD, 

2006a). Since the early 1990s, 

5 In the United States, for example, the 

social security system was revised in 1983 to 

establish higher statutory retirement ages for 

people born after 1937 (i.e., who reach age 

65 after the year 2002). An individual=s retirement age is linked to year of birth; beginning 

in the year 2003, the traditional retirement 

age of 65 began to edge higher in small (and 

temporally uneven) increments to the target 

age of 67 in the year 2025 <www.ssa.gov

/pubs/ageincrease.htm>. 6 Japan also encourages continued labor 

force participation. The relatively high 

participation rates for Japanese older workers are due to various factors, including 

economic necessity and a large proportion of 

self-employment and part-time replacement 

jobs (Williamson and Higo, 2007). Replacement jobs fill the gap between the mandatory 

retirement age of 60 and full public pension 

eligibility at age 65. High participation rates 

also are attributable to the active role of the 

Japanese government in promoting employment among older workers and to a culture 

that places a high value on men being economically productive in older age rather than 

focusing on leisure activities. 

more than one-third of OECD countries also have legislated increases 

in the pensionable age (the age of 

first eligibility for benefits) for men 

and about two-thirds have done so 

for women (Turner, 2005). In 2006, 

the average age at which workers over 50 retired in the United 

Kingdom reached its highest level 

since this measure was first used 

in 1984. As discussed further in the 

next chapter, many countries have 

tried to move away from private 

defined-benefit pension plans (with 

actuarial incentives to leave work 

at a relatively early age) toward 

defined-contribution plans (which 

are neutral in this regard).

Trend data on retirement in 

developing countries are generally unavailable. The situation in 

Taiwan is counter to the developedcountry trend toward later retirement. The average age at retirement in Taiwan was 54.9 years in 

2004, the lowest level since the 

government began calculating this 

measure in 1991. Of all the people 

who retired in 2004, 32 percent 

were aged 60 or above; in 1991, 

the corresponding figure was 71 

percent. More than half of all retirees were aged 50 to 59 (Republic 

of China [Taiwan] Government 

Information Office, 2006). South 

Korean survey data indicate that 

the average worker aged 55 to 79 

in 2006 had worked for 21 years 

and left his or her longest-serving 

job at age 53, down from age 54 

in 2004 (Korea National Statistics 

Office, 2008). However, most South 

Korean workers take on some form 

of employment, usually for lower 

pay, after leaving their primary job. 

Information for 2004 suggests that 

after leaving a primary job at age 

54, the average worker works in 

some capacity for another 14 years 

before fully retiring at age 68. 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 117

Population aging will likely require 

an increase in budgetary outlays 

in the form of old-age pension 

payments. This issue is particularly salient in countries where 

public pensions are predominately 

financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. 

While some European public pension systems date back to the end 

of the nineteenth century, many 

systems around the world were 

formed largely after World War 

II. Since the early 1990s, pension 

reform has become a high priority 

in many nations; more than half of 

the 30 Organisation for Economic 

Co-Operation and Development 

(OECD) countries have made major 

changes during the past 10 to 

15 years (OECD, 2007b). In both 

the developed and developing 

world, nations have revamped or 

are reconsidering their existing 

old-age security systems, often 

with an eye toward introducing or 

strengthening private (contributory) pension schemes.

Demographic Change

Alone May Double the

Retiree/Worker Ratio

The potential effect of demographic 

change on future ratios of retirees 

to workers, holding other factors 

constant, may be approximated in 

various ways. The most commonly 

used indicator, as discussed in 

Chapter 7, is an older dependency 

ratio that compares one population 

segment (people aged 65 and over) 

with another (people aged 20 to 

64). One variation in this measure, 

shown in Figure 10-1 for ten countries, allows for national differences 

in the average retirement age. This 

example is based on the average 

ages of retirement for men and 

women in 2005 estimated by OECD 

and population age and sex structures for 2005 and 2040 estimated 

and projected by the U.S. Census 

Bureau. The numerator of the ratio 

comprises all people at or over 

the average age of retirement in 

each country, and the denominator 

contains all people between the age 

of 20 and the average retirement 

age, assuming no change in the 

average age of retirement between 

2005 and 2040. The ratio increases 

notably in all cases and more than 

doubles in Italy, Japan, Spain, and 

Turkey.

Number of National

Old-Age Security

Systems Rising

Since World War II, public pension 

plans have played an increasingly 

important role in providing retirement income to older people. The 

number of countries with an oldage/disability/survivors program 

increased from 33 in 1940 to 167 

in 2004 (Figure 10-2). While each 

national system has its own specific objectives, the goals of most 

public old-age pension schemes 

are to smooth consumption over 

an individual’s lifetime and reduce 

or eliminate poverty among older 

people (Rofman, 2005).

CHAPTER 10.

Pensions and Old-Age Security
118 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10-1. 

Ratio of Retirement-Aged to Working-Aged Population for 

Ten Countries by Sex: 2005 and 2040 

United States

Turkey

Spain

Netherlands

Japan

Italy

France

Finland

Denmark

Australia

United States

Turkey

Spain

Netherlands

Japan

Italy

France

Finland

Denmark

Australia

Notes: Ratios represent the number of people at or above the average effective retirement age per 100 people between age 20 and 

the average effective retirement age as calculated by OECD for 2005. Ratios for 2040 assume no change in the average age of

retirement between 2005 and 2040.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on February 6, 2008; and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation 

and Development (OECD) estimates derived from the European and national labor force surveys. 

2005

Male 2040

Female

34

18

29

11

72

31

59

29

40

19

76

36

62

37

58

31

44

23

42

21

48

28

36

14

77

36

72

37

71

35

96

48

76

46

79

45

65

39

60

31
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 119

Pension Coverage

Spotty and Declining in 

Developing Countries

Mandatory old-age pension plans 

now cover more than 90 percent of 

the labor force in most developed 

countries where governments have 

undertaken mandating, financing, 

managing, and insuring public pensions. Public pension systems in 

developing countries usually cover a 

much smaller fraction of workers. In 

many cases, coverage is restricted 

to certain categories of workers, 

such as civil servants, military personnel, and employees in the formal 

economic sector. Rural, predominantly agricultural workers typically 

have little or no pension coverage, 

although some governments have 

taken steps to address this situation 

(see Box 10-1).

Figure 10-3 shows the percentage of employed people paying 

contributions to the social security 

system in 13 Latin American countries in 2002. There are marked 

differences across countries, and 

the simple average is less than 40 

percent. Further analysis of this 

dataset indicates that the average rural coverage is 22 percent, 

compared with 45 percent in urban 

areas, and that coverage in the 

nonwage urban informal sector 

(own-account workers, unpaid 

family workers, and owners of 

firms with fewer than five employees) is 14 percent (United Nations 

Economic Commission for Latin 

America and the Caribbean, 2006). 

Other data for salaried workers 

only in 15 Latin American countries 

circa 2003 show that coverage was 

less than 60 percent in 10 of the 

countries (Rofman and Lucchetti, 

2006). Compared with 1990, the 

levels of contributory social protection coverage declined among 

the employed population in Latin 

America and the Caribbean, generally. More broadly, a World Bank 

analysis in the mid-2000s suggests 

that the time trend in coverage 

levels under formal protection 

schemes in most developing countries has been stagnant or declining (Holzmann and Hinz, 2005).

Figure 10-2. 

Countries With Public Old-Age/Disability/Survivors Programs: 1940 to 2004 

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration, 2004 to 2006. 

1940 1949 1958 1969 1979 1989 2004

33

44

58

97

123

135

167
120 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Widespread social security nets are rare in most 

developing countries. The well-being of older citizens is seen mainly as the concern of families, while 

the state apportions its limited budget to strategic 

development goals, such as infrastructure, security, 

education, and health. India, however, which ranks 

among the world’s poorer countries (almost 35 percent of the population lives on less than US$1 a day; 

World Bank, 2008) and has the second-largest number of older people, provides some measure of relief 

to older people who have no means of economic or 

familial support. 

The obligation of the government to take care 

of poor and older people is embodied in India’s 

Constitution. Beginning in the 1980s, several Indian 

states developed noncontributory pension schemes 

for poor people at or above the age of 60 or 65, 

but there was no nationwide program. In 1995, the 

Indian government launched the National Social 

Assistance Program, one component of which was 

the National Old Age Pension Scheme (NOAPS), 

designed to assist destitute older people. This 

program originally was fully funded by the national 

government, which laid down norms and guidelines 

and assisted states and territories in their implementation. The number of old-age pensions disbursed 

in a state is dependent on a ceiling specified by 

the national government. Union territories have 

the lowest ceilings, while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and 

Maharashtra have the highest. In 1995, the ceiling 

for all of India was set at 5.4 million recipients, on 

the presumption that about 50 percent of people 

aged 65 and over lived below the poverty line and 

would qualify for these pensions. Pensions are disbursed through municipalities in towns and through 

“panchayats” in villages (India Ministry of Rural 

Development, <www.drd.nic.in/Guide/gnsap.htm>).

The amount received by pensioners from the 

national government increased from 75 rupees per 

month in 1995 to 200 rupees per month (equivalent 

to US$5.00 in 2008) in 2006. States were encouraged 

to continue funding any prior schemes that they 

may have had, such as an OAPS that some states 

instituted prior to 1995, as well as Widow Pension 

Schemes (Rajan, 2007). The result is variation in the 

overall pension level among states, coupled with 

variation in eligibility criteria. Most states have a 

residency requirement of 3 years, but some specify 

household income limits and others cover only those 

who have no source of income. In addition, the 

age at which people become eligible to receive this 

noncontributory pension may vary. In Haryana, for 

instance, the state-funded OAPS is given to destitute 

people aged 60 and over and was as high as 350 

rupees per month in 2006; while in Jharkhand, which 

only has the NOAPS, seniors below the poverty line 

must be age 65 before they receive 200 rupees per 

month. Some states supplement monetary pensions 

with programs that provide food and clothing.

While there are no recent official estimates of the 

overall coverage of these pension schemes, estimates 

during the last two decades range from 10 percent to 

25 percent (Rajan, 2007). An evaluation of the NOAPS 

in Andhra Pradesh suggests that its implementation 

has not been without problems. Pensioners often 

complained about being underpaid and a majority 

experienced delays in receiving their monthly pension. Most beneficiaries’ names were not displayed on 

village notice boards as is required. Moreover, names 

often remained on the pension list long after individuals had passed away, denying access to pensions 

to newly eligible seniors. Overall, however, the program did seem to reach its target population, given 

that there were more female than male recipients 

and most of the beneficiaries belonged to scheduled 

castes and other minorities (Rao, 2006).

In November 2007, the basic pension amount was 

increased nationally to 400 rupees per month, to be 

financed in equal measure by the national government and each state. Coverage was extended to 

everyone aged 65 and over living below the poverty 

line, and the restriction of one pension recipient 

per household was eliminated (U.S. Social Security 

Administration, 2007). An estimated 15.7 million 

Box 10-1.

India’s National Old Age Pension Scheme
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 121

From Defined Benefit to

Defined Contribution

Public pension plans typically offer 

defined benefits that are not tied 

directly to individual contributions 

but are financed by payroll taxes. 

This arrangement is commonly 

referred to as a “pay-as-you-go” 

system insofar as current revenues 

(taxes on working adults) are used 

to finance the pension payments 

of people who are retired from the 

labor force. Most pay-as-you-go 

systems in industrialized countries initially promised generous 

benefits. These systems, at their 

inception, were designed for 

populations with a small number 

people are entitled to the NOAPS in 2008, although some states have 

indicated that they may be unable to fund their half of the pension. The NOAPS is seen as just one pillar of older people’s welfare. 

There is an effort by the national government, surrounded by much 

debate in the press, to pass a “Maintenance and Welfare of Parents 

and Senior Citizens Bill,” whereby adult children will be obligated to 

look after their parents or other vulnerable senior relatives. The bill 

recommends the establishment of special tribunals at the district 

level that will have wide-ranging powers to order sons and daughters to provide need-based maintenance to their parents. In case of 

negligence, a person responsible for the upkeep of his or her parents 

is subject to punitive measures such as 3 months’ imprisonment and 

a fine of 5,000 rupees. The bill also provides an option for parents to 

revoke their wills.

Box 10-1.

India’s National Old Age Pension Scheme—Con.

Figure 10-3. 

Social Security Coverage in 13 Latin American Countries: Circa 2002 

(Percentage of employed population paying contributions) 

Peru

Paraguay

Bolivia

Guatemala

Nicaragua

El Salvador

Dominican Republic

Brazil

Panama

Mexico

Venezuela

Chile

Costa Rica

Note: Data for the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Venezuela exclude own-account workers, unpaid family workers, and business owners. 

Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2006. 

65.3

64.9

61.5

55.1

53.8

47.8

44.7

32.9

18.3

17.8

14.5

13.5

13.0
122 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

of pensioners relative to a large 

number of contributors (workers). 

As systems matured, ratios of pensioners to contributors grew and in 

some countries became unsustainable, particularly during periods of 

economic stagnation. 

In response to challenges to their 

pension systems’ solvency (such as 

the demographic change depicted 

in Figure 10-1), countries have 

adopted a wide range of pension 

reforms during the past 25 years. 

Measures include increasing worker 

contribution rates, restructuring 

or reducing benefits, and raising 

the standard age of retirement 

(Holzmann and Stiglitz, 2001). 

Perhaps the most widespread 

(and often controversial) change 

is the rise of defined-contribution 

(DC) plans, which complement 

or replace defined-benefit (DB) 

schemes. In DC plans, contributions from workers (often supplemented by employers) flow into 

individual workers’ accounts and 

accumulate with interest over 

time. Upon retirement, the final 

amount usually is converted into a 

pension-income stream. Although 

a majority of OECD countries still 

have public DB plans, an increasing 

number have instituted mandatory 

DC schemes (OECD, 2007a). The 

change from DB to DC schemes 

is often seen at the company 

level as well. A survey by the 

Irish Association of Pension Funds 

(2007) showed that the share of 

firms offering only DB schemes 

Figure 10-4. 

Net Replacement Rate in Mandatory Pension Programs for Men in

Selected Countries: 2005

(Percent) 

United States

United Kingdom

Turkey

Switzerland

Sweden

Spain

South Korea

Portugal

Poland

Norway

New Zealand

Netherlands

Mexico

Japan

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Czech Republic

Canada

Belgium

Austria

Australia

Note: Data refer to average individual pension entitlements as a percentage of preretirement earnings (net of taxes and contributions).

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2005. 

52

93

63

57

58

79

69

72

100

90

37

89

59

44

45

84

40

65

70

80

88

68

67

103

48

51
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 123

dropped from two-thirds in 2002 

to slightly more than one-third in 

2007, while the number offering 

DC-only schemes jumped from 8 

percent to 24 percent. DC plans 

now dominate among employersponsored pension plans in the 

United States (Cushing-Daniels and 

Johnson, 2008).

How Generous Are

Public Pensions?

The value of pensions can be construed and measured in different 

ways, depending on how many and 

which people in a given household 

rely on pension income, the taxable status of such income, the 

type of job a retiree was engaged 

in, the level of pension income in 

a given society relative to other 

benefits such as universal health 

care, and so forth. The concept of 

Areplacement rate@ is often used 

as a measure of how much of a 

person=s preretirement income 

is supplied by his or her pension. 

There is no single replacement rate 

in any national retirement program 

because rates vary depending on 

the type and duration of employment as well as the provisions 

of different plans. For comparative purposes, OECD constructs 

a replacement rate for average 

individual pension entitlements 

from mandatory pension programs 

as a percentage of preretirement 

earnings, net of taxes and contributions. Figure 10-4 shows that 

pensions for men in some countries 

can be expected to replace a large 

percentage of earnings and even to 

match or exceed the latter in Greece 

and Turkey. At the other end of 

the spectrum are Ireland and New 

Zealand, where mandatory-pension 

replacement rates are on the order 

of 40 percent. The unweighted 

average for the 26 countries in 

Figure 10-4 is 69.

Public Pensions Absorb

One-Eighth of GDP in the

European Union

The cost of public pensions generally is highest among industrial 

nations, most of which still have 

pay-as-you-go systems. Between 

1960 and 1990, one-quarter of 

the increase in total public expenditures in OECD countries was 

growth in pension expenditure; on 

average, the latter grew twice as 

fast as did gross domestic product 

(GDP) (OECD, 1997). Calculations 

for 25 European Union nations in 

2004 show a wide range of pension expenditure, with a weighted 

average of 12.2 percent of GDP 

and a high of nearly 15 percent in 

Italy (Figure 10-5). Pension expenditures accounted for 46 percent of 

all social protection expenditures 

in the European Union in 2004 

(Eurostat, 2007a). Expenditure 

levels generally are lower in 

Figure 10-5. 

Pension Expenditure in Selected European Union Countries 

as a Percentage of GDP: 2004 

EU (25)1

Ireland

Latvia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Slovenia

Greece

Sweden

France

Germany

Italy1

1

 Figures for Italy and the total European Union (EU) 25-country aggregate are provisional. 

Notes: GDP is gross domestic product. Pensions include old-age, anticipated old-age, partial, and disability, as well as early retirement 

benefits due to reduced capacity to work.

Source: Eurostat, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu>, accessed on March 19, 2007.

12.2

4.9

6.8

8.3

9.3

10.7

11.7

12.6

13.1

13.2

14.6
124 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

developing countries, where relatively younger populations and 

smaller pension programs do not 

yet place large demands on GDP.

Mandatory Private

Pension Plans Becoming

More Prominent

A growing number of countries 

require workers to participate 

in some form of mandatory private pension plan. These may be 

personal (individual-based) or 

occupational (employer-based). 

Occupational plans are schemes 

generated by a company or organization for the benefit of its 

employees. Eleven OECD countries 

have instituted mandatory private 

pensions, most of the DC type, 

and coverage usually exceeds 

90 percent of employees (OECD, 

2007a). Most occupational plans 

are employer-specific, but in some 

nations (e.g., Denmark and the 

Netherlands), plans are organized 

on an industry-wide basis with 

compulsory participation the result 

of collective bargaining. 

Occupational pension plans tend 

to be a more important source 

of retirement income than public 

pensions for high-income workers in developed countries. In the 

developing world, occupational 

programs are found most frequently 

in former British colonies and in 

countries with large multinational 

subsidiaries (World Bank, 1994). 

Most of these programs are subject 

to less regulation and lower funding 

requirements than their counterparts in industrialized countries.

Another form of mandatory plan 

is the provident fund, a compulsory DC program wherein regular 

contributions are withheld from 

employee wages and invested for 

later repayment. Payouts typically 

are in the form of a lump sum upon 

retirement but may also be made 

earlier in times of special need 

(U.S. Social Security Administration, 

2004–2006). Except in some Latin 

American countries, employers 

match or exceed the employee 

contribution. Traditional provident 

funds are state-run and centrally 

managed, though variations on 

this theme have emerged in Hong 

Kong and Thailand (Lindeman, 

2002). Malaysia, in 1951, was the 

first nation to establish a wide-scale 

provident fund, and other Asian 

nations (e.g., India, Singapore, and 

Sri Lanka) have had provident funds 

for more than 45 years. By the 

mid-1990s, more than 20 nations 

had developed such plans. None 

of these countries had a public 

pay-as-you-go system at the time 

its provident fund was established 

(World Bank, 1994). Where provident-fund coverage is extensive, 

such funds may, in effect, be the 

public pension system.

Administrative Costs

of Pension Systems

High in Some

Developing Countries

The cost of administering a pension scheme is an important factor 

in the scheme’s overall efficacy. 

Administrative costs can consume 

a significant portion of a worker’s 

benefits. For example, if administrative expenses are 1 percent 

annually, they reduce a 4 percent 

rate of return by one-quarter (i.e., 

to 3 percent) and may reduce a 

final pension by 20 percent for a 

full-career worker who contributes 

throughout his or her working life 

(James, 2005). In many developing 

countries, administrative costs of 

publicly managed pension plans 

as a percentage of total old-age 

benefits historically have been high 

relative to those in the developed 

world; for example, 10 percent to 

15 percent in Brazil and Turkey 

compared with less than 2 percent 

in most OECD countries (World 

Bank, 1994). 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 125

Important factors in reducing the 

share of administrative costs over 

time include increases in total 

benefit expenditures, reflecting 

not only the maturation and/or 

expansion of programs but also 

the impact of inflation; government 

austerity programs targeted toward 

administrative overhead; and wider 

use of computers for processing 

benefits, with corresponding gains 

in efficiency. 

Concern has also been expressed 

about administrative costs associated with the rapid growth of 

privately managed retirement 

plans. Personal retirement account 

systems have high start-up costs in 

the form of record-keeping, communications, and marketing, and 

pension fund companies often run 

deficits during their initial years of 

operation. As the volume of assets 

in a plan increases, economies of 

scale tend to lower administrative 

costs. One compilation of data for 

13 countries (Figure 10-6) suggests 

that administrative costs in 2002 

tended to be higher in developing 

countries compared with developed countries. 

Figure 10-6. 

Administrative Costs as a Percentage of Assets in Privately Managed Plans

for Selected Countries: 2002

Uruguay

United States1

Sweden2

Poland

Peru

Mexico

Kazakhstan

El Salvador

Costa Rica

Chile

Bolivia

Australia1

Argentina

1

 Figures for Australia and the United States refer to the retail sector, 2001. 2

 Figure for Sweden refers to 2004. 

Source: James, 2005.

2.6

1.5

0.7

4.3

3.8

2.5

3.7

9.5

2.1

1.2

1.6

2.0

4.2
126 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Private Pension Fund

Assets a Major Source

of Long-Term Capital

Private pension fund assets, accumulated within occupational and 

personal pension plans, are sizeable in many developed countries. 

These assets have grown substantially during the past three decades 

and in 2005 were equivalent to 

more than 115 percent of GDP in 

the Netherlands and Switzerland 

(Figure 10-7). In OECD countries as 

a whole, the 2005 weighted ratio of 

assets to GDP was 88 percent, and 

assets amounted to US$18 trillion. 

The three largest pension markets 

are in the United States, the United 

Kingdom, and Japan (OECD, 2007b). 

Most occupational-plan assets have 

been invested in the private sector, are internationally diversified, 

and have earned higher returns 

than publicly managed funds. Such 

assets are subject to market fluctuations; for example, a downturn 

in equity markets in 2001–2002 

resulted in a 13 percentage-point 

drop in the ratio of assets to GDP. 

This ratio rose as markets recovered, and the world’s 300 largest 

funds added US$1 trillion in 2005 

and again in 2006 (Watson Wyatt 

Worldwide, 2007).

The growth of private pension 

assets is expected to continue. A 

looming policy question is whether 

population aging will depress rates 

of return on private pension funds. 

As large post-World War II cohorts 

move into retirement, they may 

begin to divest financial assets 

accumulated during their working 

years. This prospect highlights the 

importance of pension fund management, changes in government 

regulations, and varying sociocultural predispositions toward saving 

for retirement (National Research 

Council, 2001).

Figure 10-7. 

Private Pension Fund Assets as a Percentage of GDP in Six Countries:

1970 and 2005 

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Sources: World Bank, 1994; and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), 2007b. 

United States

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Netherlands

Denmark

Canada

1970

2005

14

50

19

34

29

125

38

117

21

70

29

99
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 127

Trend Toward

Pension Privatization 

Began in Chile

Chile first enacted a public pension 

scheme in 1911 and expanded its 

program following the European 

social insurance model financed 

on a pay-as-you-go basis. Between 

1960 and 1980, the ratio of pensioners to contributing workers 

increased from 9 per 100 to 45 

per 100 due to rapidly changing 

demographics and increasing tax 

evasion on the part of employees 

and employers (Williamson and 

Hochman, 1995). These changes, 

occurring in the context of a stagnant economy, resulted in a situation where the pension system was 

no longer able to meet current obligations. Faced with an increasingly 

bleak future scenario, the Chilean 

government in 1980 abandoned its 

public system in favor of a compulsory savings plan administered by 

private sector companies.

Since 1981, all wage and salary 

earners are required to contribute 

10 percent of their earnings to a 

privately administered retirement 

fund (additional payroll deductions 

are made for life insurance and 

fund expenses). Workers themselves select from many competing investment companies, are 

free to switch their accounts, and 

have several options for when to 

withdraw funds and how to receive 

benefits. The accounts are managed by pension funds subject 

to strict government guidelines 

designed to reduce mismanagement risks (James, 2007).

By most accounts, the Chilean 

experiment during its initial decade 

was a success, with real annual 

returns on contributions averaging in excess of 12 percent during 

the 1980s. From 1995 to 2002, 

however, annual rates of return 

were generally much lower and 

in 2 years were negative. Overall, 

the long-term (22-year) average 

real return exceeded 10 percent 

(Figure 10-8). Elements of the 

system that have been criticized 

include high administrative costs, 

workers’ loss of freedom over onetenth of their earnings, stagnation 

of coverage rates, and eventual 

income replacement rates that are 

not guaranteed and rely on investment earnings that may suffer 

in times of economic stagnation 

(Soto, 2005; and United Nations 

Economic Commission for Latin 

America and the Caribbean, 2006). 

James (2007) points out that the 

Figure 10-8. 

Real Rate of Return of Chile’s Private Pension System: 1981 to 2002

Source: Williamson, 2005. 

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Percent

Annual average, 1981 to 2002: 10.3%
128 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

largest problem in Chile and other 

countries may be that many individuals do not contribute regularly 

or at all, and the government is 

unable to enforce contribution 

collections. Nevertheless, many 

countries in Latin America, Eastern 

Europe, and Asia have adopted 

aspects of the Chilean system or 

are experimenting with variations 

of it. Consideration of increased 

privatization of social security 

systems is now commonplace in 

much of the developed world as 

well (Holzmann and Hinz, 2005; 

Fox and Palmer, 2001). 

Universal Pensions

Address Aging

and Poverty

The persistence of poverty in many 

countries, and in particular old-age 

poverty, has led to new approaches 

to dealing with old-age security. 

While most people receive pension income as a result of having 

worked and made contributions to 

a pension scheme, governments 

increasingly realize that economic 

systems may preclude this possibility for some segments of society. 

Most countries have some form of 

basic noncontributory pension for 

certain social groups, but eligibility 

criteria for the pension may differ 

greatly. An increasing number of 

countries have instituted, or are 

considering the introduction of, a 

non-means-tested pension as a way 

to mitigate poverty and provide at 

least a minimum level of subsistence for older people.

Willmore (2007) has developed a 

typology that identifies four types 

of noncontributory pensions. 

The most far-reaching is known 

as a universal non-means-tested 

pension, with benefits available to 

people based only on residence, 

age, and citizenship. Table 10-1 

provides information for the nine 

countries and one city that provided universal non-means-tested 

pensions in the mid-2000s. In each 

case, pensions are paid to all who 

meet age and residency (and in 

some cases citizenship) requirements regardless of their assets 

or other income. Other types of 

noncontributory pensions are residence-based pensions, which usually require long periods (e.g., 40 

years) of adult residency; recoveryconditioned pensions, where the 

receipt of pension income reduces 

other amounts of income that 

an individual might receive from 

earnings or private pensions; and 

social assistance pensions, which 

are means-tested programs that 

typically target benefits to people 

living in poverty. 

According to the United Nations 

Department of Economic and Social 

Affairs, there are many questions 

about the impact of universal 

pensions. They may be expensive 

when used as a core element of 

old-age security in a given country, 

and they may discourage participation in contributory programs. 

There are large gaps in knowledge 

about administrative costs, optimal 

institutional arrangements, take-up 

rates, and behavioral and incentive effects (i.e., does a universal 

pension reduce private intergenerational transfers and/or reduce labor 

supply?). On balance, however, 

such pensions appear to have the 

measurable effect of reducing poverty (United Nations Department of 

Economic and Social Affairs, 2007a). 

Evidence from South Africa suggests 

that an old-age social pension not 

only has direct economic benefits 

for households with older people 

but also increases labor supply by 

improving the child-care capacity 

of grandparents, thereby freeing 

younger household members for 

paid employment. Money from 

social pensions may also be used 

to temporarily support younger 

household members who migrate in 

search of employment (Ardington, 

Case, and Hosegood, 2007). 

Table 10-1.

Countries With Universal Non-Means-Tested Pensions:

Circa 2003

Country Qualifying

age

Percent of

population of

qualifying age

Number of

beneficiaries

(in thousands)

Monthly

pension

(in U.S. dollars)

Bolivia ................. 65 4.5 411 19

Botswana .............. 65 5.0 85 30

Brunei .... ............ . 60 4.5 14 120

Kosovo.... ............ . 65 5.3 105 50

Mauritius1 .............. 60 9.2 116 61–262

Mexico, D.F.

2 ........... 70 4.6 370 65

Namibia ........... .... . 60 6.0 98 23

Nepal .... .............. 75 1.1 211 2

New Zealand3 .......... 65 12.0 446 554–737

Samoa ................ . 65 6.4 11 33

1 Pension in Mauritius increases with age of pensioner. 2 Data for Mexico, D.F., refer to Mexico City. 3 In New Zealand, qualifying couples receive $554 each, and a single pensioner receives $737.

Source: Willmore, 2007.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 129

Although China is rapidly urbanizing, it remains a 

predominately rural country. The majority of Chinese 

workers are not yet covered by any formal pension 

scheme (Dunaway and Arora, 2007). Among those 

who have been and are now covered, there has been 

a steady rise in the number receiving formal pensions during the last 25 years. Concurrently, the 

ratio of covered workers to pensioners has declined, 

a trend that threatens the well-being of the formal 

old-age security system (Figure 10-9).

Social security reforms in China have been necessitated by the restructuring of state-owned enterprises 

and the many changes associated with movement 

toward a market economy. A new framework for 

old-age security began to emerge in the mid-1990s, 

and China remains in the process of developing the 

largest pension system in the world (see Salditt, 

Whiteford, and Adema [2007] for an overview). They 

describe the intent as basically twofold: (1) to replace 

cradle-to-grave support provided by state-owned 

enterprises with an expansion of coverage beyond 

the state sector; and (2) to introduce pooled funding, which deflects risk. The new system includes 

a defined-benefit pension providing a 20 percent 

replacement rate of the average wage and a definedcontribution individual account. Owing to the 

unfunded liabilities of the former system, individual 

accounts have remained largely notional; today’s 

workers continue to pay for today’s pensioners.

New pressures have emerged in light of the rapid 

pace of population aging. Research supports a higher 

retirement age to counter the rising ratio of pensioners to workers. The government now is considering 

conversion to a system with a fully funded component and how to transition to a new system. Another 

challenge with this approach is where to invest funds 

that will accumulate in individual accounts, given that 

China’s capital markets are relatively immature.

Box 10-2. 

China—Rethinking Social Security in an Emerging Market Economy

Figure 10-9. 

China’s Declining Ratio of Covered Workers to Pensioners: 1980 to 2005 

Sources: China Labour Statistical Yearbook, various years; and China Statistical Abstract, 2006. 

Millions of pensioners Ratio of workers to pensioners

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14
130 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Governments

Considering New Pillars

of Old-Age Security

In a 1994 report, the World Bank 

formulated its view of global pension reform and recommended that 

governments promote three pillars 

of old-age economic security: (1) 

a mandated, unfunded, and publicly managed DB (pay-as-you-go) 

system; (2) a mandated, funded, 

and privately managed DC scheme; 

and (3) voluntary personal retirement savings. Many countries now 

embrace the concept of a fourth 

pillar that includes nontraditional 

sources of old-age income, such 

as work (well beyond the “normal” 

retirement age) and the use of 

home equity, as well as income protection and the potential to encourage wealth transfer through the use 

of products such as life insurance 

and long-term care insurance. The 

World Bank has revised its original 

formulation into a five-pillar system 

that adds a basic (zero) pillar to 

address issues of extreme poverty 

(through, for example, universal 

pensions) and a nonfinancial fourth 

pillar that includes access to family and other informal support as 

well as social programs for health 

care, housing, and home ownership 

(Holzmann and Hinz, 2005; and 

World Bank, 2007). 

Given the maturation of public pension systems, increases in levels 

of female labor force participation, 

and the development of private pension schemes, there is a perception 

in some countries that older people 

on the whole are now faring better 

than previous generations of older 

people and younger population subgroups (Schulz and Binstock, 2006). 

However, the complexity of measuring economic well-being often precludes a definitive assessment, and 

there is considerable concern about 

the willingness and ability of households to adequately save for retirement needs. The life-cycle theory 

of consumption and savings posits 

that households accumulate wealth 

during working years to enable 

future consumption. In retirement, 

households tap that wealth to 

finance consumption. Individual lifecycle savings determine whether 

households in that country are net 

savers or “dissavers” at any point 

in time. Gross savings rates are 

seen to vary substantially across 

countries and over time (Population 

Reference Bureau, 2007). The mix 

of retirement resources also varies 

enormously. Crossnational survey 

data from Europe (Borsch-Supan 

et al., 2005) reveal that 3 percent of Spanish households with 

at least one member aged 50 or 

older owned stocks in 2004, compared with 38 percent of Swedish 

households (Figure 10-10). A large 

percentage of household wealth 

in many countries is tied up in 

housing. This raises concerns that 

housing prices may fall as a large 

population of older people attempts 

to sell to a smaller population of 

younger people.1 Such concerns 

have given rise to reverse mortgages and similar financial tools for 

tapping housing equity and avoiding unfavorable market conditions.

1 Research in the United States suggests 

that, to date, most older Americans up to 

age 80 have not been converting their housing assets into other forms of income (Fisher 

et al., 2007).

Figure 10-10. 

Percentage of Households With Members Aged 50 and Over Owning Mutual Funds 

and Stocks for Ten Countries: 2004

Source: Borcsh-Supan et al., 2005.

Austria Denmark France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland

Mutual funds Stocks

52.3

38.0

13.6

31.5

13.0 12.6 11.4

16.3 17.8

14.7 15.3

25.1

5.0 5.0 6.2 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.0

4.7
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 131

This report has examined the 

demography of global population 

aging and considered many of the 

socioeconomic implications of 

demographic trends. In one sense, 

the reality of global aging represents a triumph of medical, social, 

and economic advances. In another 

sense, population aging produces 

myriad challenges to social insurance and pension schemes, health 

care systems, and existing models 

of social support. It affects economic growth, disease patterns 

and prevalence, and fundamental 

assumptions about growing older.

Population aging may fuel opportunities for economic growth and 

spur countries to develop new 

fiscal approaches to accommodate 

a changing world. While some 

governments have begun to plan 

for the long term, most have not, 

and reform becomes more difficult 

as the pace of population aging 

accelerates. In 2006, the European 

Commission submitted a report 

to European Finance Ministers 

that presented projections of 

economic and budgetary costs 

associated with population aging 

in European Union (EU) member 

states. The upshot of the report 

was that, given current policies, 

the costs of pensions, health care, 

and long-term care will lead to 

major increases in public spending 

in most member nations over the 

next half century. Gross domestic 

product growth rates are projected 

to fall across the EU, and in the 

absence of policy changes, the 

potential EU economic growth rate 

would be cut in half by 2030. The 

EU report notes that, similar to the 

situation of an individual worker 

who delays saving until retirement is near, delays in planning for 

population aging at the national 

level would increase the costs of 

adjustment and shift the economic 

burden to the next generation of 

workers and taxpayers.

The financial and social implications of population aging have 

stimulated the expansion of 

research into new areas of inquiry, 

ranging from macroeconomic 

to genetic. A sampling of topics 

includes aging and capital markets 

(Borsch-Supan, 2006; and Groome, 

Blancher, and Ramlogan, 2006); 

the impact of alternative fiscal 

adjustment and reform strategies (Botman and Kumar, 2007); 

aging and global capital flows 

(Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff, 2003); 

implications of aging for national 

security policies (Haas, 2007); 

collection of biological (including 

genetic) data in population-based 

surveys (Weinstein, Vaupel, and 

Wachter, 2007); development of 

physiological indexes of aging 

based on biological markers 

(Gruenewald et al., 2006; and 

Seplaki et al., 2006); behavioral 

genomics and the life course 

(Hobcraft, 2007); neuroeconomics 

(Berns, Laibson, and Loewenstein, 

2007); and a renewed interest 

in evaluating and quantifying 

well-being in older age (Schwarz, 

Kahneman, and Xu, forthcoming).

Much of the effort to better understand the paths and processes 

of aging, at both the individual 

and population level, is being 

spearheaded by crossnational and 

multidisciplinary research. The 

U.S. National Research Council 

has recommended crossnational 

research as a powerful tool that 

enhances the ability of policymakers to evaluate institutional and 

programmatic features of different 

national policies, and it has encouraged the development of multidisciplinary research designs to 

produce data to guide public policy 

(National Research Council, 2001). 

Toward this end, three notable 

efforts as described in Box 11-1 are 

underway, each of which relies on 

longitudinal data collection. The 

maturation of these studies will 

yield insights into the complex 

interrelationships among work, 

health, economic status, and family 

structure. The importance of such 

approaches is increasingly recognized throughout the world, as evidenced by the fact that numerous 

developing nations (e.g., Argentina, 

Chile, China, India, Mexico, and 

Thailand) have initiated or are 

planning studies that draw on the 

designs and experiences of the U.S. 

Health and Retirement Study (HRS); 

the English Longitudinal Study of 

Ageing (ELSA); and the Survey of 

Health, Ageing and Retirement in 

Europe (SHARE).

CHAPTER 11.

Concluding Remarks
132 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

At the G-8 meeting of the most industrialized 

countries in Denver in 1997, G-8 leaders highlighted 

the importance of population aging. The meeting 

communiqué encouraged nations to collaborate in 

biomedical and behavioral research and to learn 

from one another how policies and programs 

can advance structural reforms to preserve and 

strengthen pension, health, and long-term care 

systems.1 The U.S. National Academy of Sciences 

subsequently recommended several strategies 

for enabling such research, with an emphasis on 

longitudinal data collection and multidisciplinary 

study design. With support from the U.S. National 

Institute on Aging, three important crossnational 

efforts have emerged to provide policymakers 

with hitherto unavailable information essential for 

understanding the complexities of our aging world. 

The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in 

Europe (SHARE) is a pan-European interdisciplinary 

longitudinal dataset covering people aged 50 and 

over. Modeled after the U.S. Health and Retirement 

Study (HRS) and the English Longitudinal Study on 

Ageing (ELSA), SHARE features harmonized crossnational data that allow comparison of the effects 

of different pension and health care systems on the 

lives of middle-aged and older citizens in the countries covered by SHARE, ELSA, and HRS. In 2004, a 

first wave of data from 30,000 respondents was 

collected in 11 European countries. The second wave 

of SHARE, in 2006–2007, incorporated four more 

countries in addition to the original 11. A third wave 

is currently in the design stage and is planned to 

1 The communiqué is available at <www.g8.fr/evian/english

/navigation/g8_documents/archives_from_previous_summits

/denver_summit_-_1997/communique.html>.

cover all 27 members of the European Union, plus 

Israel and Switzerland <www.share-project.org/>.

The INDEPTH Network (International Network for the 

Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their 

Health) comprises 40 sites in Africa, Asia, and Latin 

America that undertake prospective monitoring 

of populations living in defined geographic areas. 

Combining demographic surveillance with innovative techniques, such as verbal autopsy (a method of 

determining causes of death in populations lacking 

vital registration and medical certification), INDEPTH 

sites provide reliable mortality data that otherwise 

are lacking for much of the developing world, especially with regard to adult populations. The longitudinal nature of these data is essential to understanding emerging patterns of adult mortality and 

noncommunicable diseases, and this information 

will form the basis for development of much needed 

chronic disease prevention and control programs 

<www.indepth-network.org/>.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has launched 

the Study of Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE), 

a longitudinal study in six countries (China, Ghana, 

India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa) that builds 

upon prior data from the WHO World Health Survey 

2002–2004. SAGE is designed to follow cohorts of 

individuals over age 50 for a period of 10 to 15 years 

in order to examine changes in health status and 

well-being and determine predictors of change, such 

as economic activity, transitions in life situations, 

and social cohesion. The SAGE will be linked to data 

from INDEPTH demographic surveillance sites in Asia 

and Africa to enhance the breadth and analytical 

potential of both datasets <www.who.int/healthinfo

/systems/sage/en/index.html>.

Box 11-1. 

New Data for an Aging World
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 133

Data for world regions in this 

report are, in most cases, aggregated from the International Data 

Base of the Population Division 

of the U.S. Census Bureau. The 

regions include the countries 

listed below. In some parts of 

this report, the discussion refers 

to a region as defined by another 

organization (for example, Western 

Europe might refer to a subset of 

member states of the Organisation 

for Economic Co-operation and 

Development or the European 

Union), as indicated by the corresponding reference citation. 

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Cape Verde

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Congo (Brazzaville)

Congo (Kinshasa)

Cote d’Ivoire

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Gabon

Gambia, The

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mayotte

Mozambique

Namibia

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Saint Helena

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Africa

Sudan

Swaziland

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

APPENDIX A.

Country Composition of World Regions

NORTHERN AFRICA

Algeria

Egypt

Libya

Morocco

Tunisia

Western Sahara

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
134 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

ASIA 

(excluding Near East)

Afghanistan

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

Brunei

Burma

Cambodia

China

Georgia

Hong Kong S.A.R.

India

Indonesia

Iran

Japan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Laos

Macau S.A.R.

Malaysia

Maldives

Mongolia

Nepal

North Korea

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Tajikistan

Thailand

Timor-Leste

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

EASTERN EUROPE

Albania

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Republic

Estonia

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Macedonia

Moldova

Montenegro

Poland

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Ukraine 

WESTERN EUROPE

Andorra

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Faroe Islands

Finland

France

Germany

Gibraltar

Greece

Guernsey

Iceland

Ireland

Isle of Man

Italy

Jersey

Liechtenstein

Luxembourg

Malta

Monaco

Netherlands

Norway

Portugal

San Marino

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 135

LATIN AMERICA AND 

THE CARIBBEAN

Anguilla

Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina

Aruba

Bahamas, The

Barbados

Belize

Bolivia

Brazil

Cayman Islands

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Grenada

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Jamaica

Mexico

Montserrat

Netherlands Antilles

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Puerto Rico

Saint Barthelemy

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

Saint Martin

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Suriname

Trinidad and Tobago

Turks and Caicos Islands

Uruguay

Venezuela

Virgin Islands, U.S.

Virgin Islands, British

NEAR EAST

Bahrain

Cyprus

Gaza Strip

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

West Bank

Yemen

NORTHERN AMERICA

Bermuda

Canada

Greenland

Saint Pierre and Miquelon

United States

OCEANIA

American Samoa

Australia

Cook Islands

Fiji

French Polynesia

Guam

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Micronesia, Federated States of

Nauru

New Caledonia

New Zealand

Northern Mariana Islands

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Samoa

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Wallis and Futuna

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 137

APPENDIX B.

Detailed Tables
138 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-1.

Total Population, Percent Older, and Percent Oldest Old by Country: 1950, 1980, 2010,

and 2040

(Numbers in thousands)

Country

1950 1980

Total

population

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a percent of

65+

Total

population

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a percent of

65+

Western Europe

Austria ............................ 6,935 10.4 1.2 11.5 7,549 15.4 2.7 17.5

Belgium ........................... 8,628 11.0 1.4 12.7 9,828 14.4 2.6 18.1

Denmark .......................... 4,271 9.1 1.2 13.2 5,123 14.4 2.9 20.1

France............................ 41,829 11.4 1.7 14.9 53,880 14.0 3.1 22.1

Germany .......................... 68,376 9.7 1.0 10.3 78,289 15.6 2.8 17.9

Greece ........................... 7,566 6.8 1.0 14.7 9,643 13.1 2.3 17.6

Italy .............................. 47,104 8.3 1.1 13.3 56,434 13.1 2.2 16.8

Norway ........................... 3,265 9.7 1.7 17.5 4,086 14.8 3.0 20.3

Sweden ........................... 7,014 10.3 1.5 14.6 8,310 16.3 3.2 19.6

United Kingdom .................... 50,616 10.7 1.5 14.0 56,314 14.9 2.7 18.1

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria........................... 7,251 6.7 0.7 10.4 8,862 11.9 1.6 13.4

Czech Republic .................... 8,925 8.3 1.0 12.0 10,284 13.4 1.9 14.2

Hungary........................... 9,338 7.3 0.8 11.0 10,707 13.4 2.1 15.7

Poland............................ 24,824 5.2 0.7 13.5 35,574 10.1 1.5 14.9

Russia ............................ 102,702 6.2 0.9 14.5 138,655 10.2 1.4 13.7

Ukraine ........................... 37,298 7.6 1.2 15.8 50,044 11.9 1.7 14.3

Northern America/Oceania

Australia .......................... 8,219 8.1 1.1 13.6 14,638 9.6 1.7 17.7

Canada ........................... 13,737 7.7 1.1 14.3 24,516 9.4 1.8 19.1

New Zealand ...................... 1,908 9.0 1.1 12.2 3,113 10.0 1.7 17.0

United States ...................... 157,813 8.3 1.1 13.3 230,917 11.2 2.4 21.4

Africa

Egypt ............................. 21,834 3.0 0.2 6.7 43,674 3.9 0.4 10.3

Kenya ............................ 6,077 3.9 0.3 7.7 16,282 3.0 0.3 10.0

Malawi ............................ 2,881 3.1 0.2 6.5 6,215 2.8 0.3 10.7

Morocco .......................... 8,953 2.9 0.2 6.9 19,567 4.2 0.6 14.3

South Africa ....................... 13,683 3.6 0.3 8.3 29,074 3.1 0.4 12.9

Tunisia............................ 3,530 5.7 0.9 15.8 6,458 3.8 0.3 7.9

Uganda ........................... 5,158 3.0 0.3 10.0 12,661 2.6 0.2 7.7

Zimbabwe ......................... 2,747 3.2 0.2 6.3 7,285 2.9 0.3 10.3

Asia

Bangladesh........................ 43,852 5.1 0.6 11.8 88,855 2.9 0.3 10.3

China............................. 554,760 4.5 0.3 6.7 998,877 4.7 0.4 8.5

India.............................. 371,857 3.1 0.4 12.9 688,575 3.6 0.3 8.3

Indonesia ......................... 79,538 4.0 0.3 7.5 151,108 3.4 0.3 8.8

Israel ............................. 1,258 3.9 0.3 7.7 3,764 8.6 1.2 14.0

Japan ............................ 83,625 4.9 0.4 8.2 116,807 9.0 1.4 15.6

Malaysia .......................... 6,110 5.1 0.6 11.8 13,763 3.7 0.5 13.5

Pakistan .......................... 36,944 5.3 0.5 9.4 79,222 3.4 0.4 11.8

Philippines......................... 19,996 3.6 0.4 11.1 48,088 3.2 0.3 9.4

Singapore ......................... 1,022 2.4 0.4 16.7 2,415 4.7 0.5 10.6

South Korea ....................... 18,859 3.0 0.2 6.7 38,124 3.8 0.4 10.5

Sri Lanka.......................... 7,339 3.6 0.1 2.8 14,941 4.4 0.5 11.4

Thailand .......................... 20,607 3.2 0.4 12.5 46,809 3.8 0.5 13.2

Turkey ............................ 21,484 3.2 0.3 9.4 46,316 4.6 0.7 15.2

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.......................... 17,150 4.2 0.5 11.9 28,094 8.1 1.1 13.6

Brazil ............................. 53,975 3.0 0.3 10.0 121,615 4.1 0.5 12.2

Chile ............................. 6,082 4.3 0.5 11.6 11,174 5.5 0.9 16.4

Colombia.......................... 12,568 3.1 0.3 9.7 28,356 3.8 0.5 13.2

Costa Rica ........................ 966 4.8 0.5 10.4 2,347 4.7 0.8 17.0

Guatemala ........................ 3,146 2.5 0.2 8.0 7,013 2.9 0.4 13.8

Jamaica........................... 1,403 3.9 0.2 5.1 2,133 6.7 1.5 22.4

Mexico............................ 27,741 3.5 0.6 17.1 69,325 3.7 0.6 16.2

Peru ............................. 7,632 3.5 0.3 8.6 17,325 3.6 0.4 11.1

Uruguay........................... 2,239 8.2 1.4 17.1 2,914 10.5 1.7 16.2
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 139

Table B-1.

Total Population, Percent Older, and Percent Oldest Old by Country: 1950, 1980, 2010,

and 2040—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country

2010 2040

Total

population

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

65+

Total

population

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

total

population

80+ as a

percent of

65+

Western Europe

Austria ............................ 8,214 18.1 5.0 27.7 7,867 29.9 9.5 31.9

Belgium ........................... 10,423 17.8 5.3 29.6 10,206 27.3 9.4 34.6

Denmark .......................... 5,516 16.6 4.2 25.2 5,691 25.0 8.1 32.6

France............................ 64,806 16.5 5.3 31.8 70,141 25.1 8.9 35.7

Germany .......................... 82,283 20.4 5.2 25.3 76,815 30.3 10.1 33.4

Greece ........................... 10,750 19.4 5.3 27.3 10,366 29.2 9.4 32.1

Italy .............................. 58,091 20.3 6.0 29.6 53,232 32.6 10.4 31.8

Norway ........................... 4,676 15.6 4.7 29.9 5,008 25.1 8.4 33.2

Sweden ........................... 9,074 19.3 5.4 27.8 9,212 25.8 9.1 35.2

United Kingdom .................... 61,285 16.4 4.6 28.2 64,462 25.1 8.0 31.8

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria........................... 7,149 17.9 4.0 22.4 5,305 28.3 9.0 31.9

Czech Republic .................... 10,202 15.9 3.9 24.5 9,115 28.5 9.3 32.6

Hungary........................... 9,880 16.0 3.7 23.5 8,830 25.5 8.2 32.2

Poland............................ 38,464 13.5 3.4 25.5 34,481 25.9 9.4 36.1

Russia ............................ 139,390 13.3 3.0 22.8 116,553 22.8 7.2 31.5

Ukraine ........................... 45,416 15.5 3.5 22.3 36,513 24.9 7.6 30.7

Northern America/Oceania

Australia .......................... 20,925 13.9 3.9 28.2 24,034 23.6 7.7 32.8

Canada ........................... 34,253 14.2 4.0 28.6 40,479 24.4 8.3 34.1

New Zealand ...................... 4,228 12.3 3.4 28.0 4,863 21.4 6.4 29.9

United States ...................... 309,163 13.0 3.8 29.3 392,173 20.4 7.2 35.5

Africa

Egypt ............................. 84,440 4.9 0.6 12.1 119,470 11.8 2.4 20.3

Kenya ............................ 40,047 2.7 0.4 13.7 60,317 6.0 1.0 17.1

Malawi ............................ 14,613 2.7 0.3 10.6 26,024 2.8 0.5 17.6

Morocco .......................... 35,301 5.2 0.8 15.8 48,238 12.4 2.4 19.1

South Africa ....................... 43,333 5.8 1.0 16.7 35,390 10.0 2.8 27.8

Tunisia............................ 10,583 7.2 1.3 17.7 12,503 18.2 3.8 20.7

Uganda ........................... 33,399 2.1 0.3 13.5 93,632 2.2 0.3 14.9

Zimbabwe ......................... 12,516 3.6 0.6 18.1 12,545 5.0 1.4 28.2

Asia

Bangladesh........................ 159,765 3.7 0.5 12.9 250,604 7.8 1.2 15.7

China............................. 1,347,563 8.3 1.4 16.7 1,454,619 22.6 5.0 22.3

India.............................. 1,184,090 5.4 0.7 13.1 1,684,312 13.2 3.1 23.5

Indonesia ......................... 242,968 6.1 0.8 13.6 304,686 14.7 3.1 21.2

Japan ............................ 126,804 22.6 6.3 27.8 103,862 34.4 13.1 38.0

Israel ............................. 6,645 10.0 2.8 28.5 8,271 17.3 5.2 30.0

Malaysia .......................... 26,144 5.1 0.7 14.3 39,410 11.6 2.5 21.5

Pakistan .......................... 173,814 4.4 0.6 14.3 256,974 8.6 1.5 16.9

Philippines......................... 95,868 4.4 0.6 14.7 137,829 10.1 2.0 19.8

Singapore ......................... 4,701 9.0 2.4 26.5 5,003 33.2 10.0 30.1

South Korea ....................... 49,568 10.4 1.9 18.0 48,330 28.9 8.4 29.1

Sri Lanka.......................... 21,514 8.3 1.6 19.7 24,834 19.1 5.2 27.5

Thailand .......................... 66,303 8.9 1.5 16.7 70,958 21.8 5.5 25.2

Turkey ............................ 73,322 7.3 1.3 18.1 86,450 17.6 3.8 21.4

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.......................... 41,405 11.0 2.9 26.4 48,207 17.2 5.1 29.9

Brazil ............................. 195,580 6.8 1.2 17.8 228,454 17.5 4.0 22.7

Chile ............................. 16,720 9.2 1.7 18.7 19,281 19.3 5.3 27.5

Colombia.......................... 46,271 5.8 0.9 16.1 62,108 15.0 3.4 22.7

Costa Rica ........................ 4,306 6.3 1.2 19.2 5,554 16.3 4.0 24.6

Guatemala ........................ 13,550 3.8 0.6 15.2 21,048 7.5 1.6 21.7

Jamaica........................... 2,843 7.5 1.8 23.9 3,368 11.3 2.9 25.9

Mexico............................ 112,469 6.4 1.3 21.1 143,026 15.5 3.9 25.2

Peru.............................. 29,758 5.8 0.8 14.4 37,451 14.0 2.7 19.5

Uruguay........................... 3,510 13.4 3.6 26.6 3,827 19.7 5.8 29.5

Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007b; and U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 6, 2008.

2

U.S. Census Bureau
140 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-2.

Percent Change in Population for Older Age Groups by Country: 2000 to 2020 and

2020 to 2040

Country

2000 to 2020 2020 to 2040

55 to 64

years

65 to 79

years

80 years

and over

65 years

and over

55 to 64

years

65 to 79

years

80 years

and over

65 years

and over

Western Europe

Austria ..... ...................... 36.6 26.0 68.9 35.8 –22.4 31.2 54.7 37.9

Belgium ... ....................... 43.4 14.1 72.0 26.5 –17.1 17.5 51.6 27.4

Denmark ... ...................... 20.2 48.1 27.9 42.7 –15.7 11.3 71.7 25.8

France ..... ...................... 50.4 29.1 77.4 40.4 –4.8 18.5 57.5 30.0

Germany ... ...................... 18.8 19.3 95.0 36.1 –26.0 23.7 32.3 26.5

Greece ... ........................ 22.5 8.6 94.6 26.3 6.8 29.3 31.6 30.0

Italy ..... ......................... 24.9 10.1 84.7 26.7 –14.5 32.9 28.8 31.6

Norway ..... ...................... 45.8 43.9 16.3 36.1 –11.5 19.7 85.9 35.8

Sweden ... ....................... 10.1 41.2 19.0 34.6 –10.0 1.5 54.7 15.5

United Kingdom ... ................ 39.8 26.7 34.1 28.6 –9.3 26.0 60.9 35.3

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ...... .................... –2.6 –2.7 86.5 9.4 0.4 –6.2 46.3 5.9

Czech Republic .... ............... 17.2 42.3 89.1 50.3 17.3 4.4 84.6 21.6

Hungary ... ....................... 5.0 19.3 70.8 28.1 17.3 4.4 67.0 18.9

Poland ... ........................ 53.8 36.1 111.2 48.5 14.0 6.1 94.2 26.9

Russia ... ........................ 30.5 2.2 82.4 15.1 –9.5 15.5 55.3 25.6

Ukraine... ........................ 6.2 –3.8 82.9 9.9 –5.1 12.8 40.1 20.0

Northern America/Oceania

Australia ... ....................... 63.8 63.2 72.2 65.4 –0.3 29.0 88.4 43.8

Canada... ........................ 87.3 69.6 71.7 70.1 –7.4 28.6 99.4 46.4

New Zealand... ................... 53.6 55.6 55.6 55.6 21.0 42.0 81.9 52.0

United States ... .................. 75.0 59.7 44.9 55.8 –2.6 25.3 111.8 46.5

Africa

Egypt ... ......................... 99.7 120.4 250.9 132.5 70.5 98.7 211.3 114.4

Kenya ... ......................... 111.4 95.9 118.7 98.8 128.1 118.9 177.5 127.1

Malawi .... ....................... 32.3 60.7 135.4 67.3 73.7 34.7 103.2 43.2

Morocco ..... ..................... 120.7 75.1 127.1 82.5 72.0 132.4 155.7 136.5

South Africa... .................... 22.6 46.3 84.2 52.0 –1.8 2.4 77.6 16.1

Tunisia ... ....................... . 113.0 58.6 161.3 72.2 56.8 127.0 135.8 128.7

Uganda... ........................ 84.2 51.2 123.4 59.2 112.9 128.6 119.9 127.2

Zimbabwe . . . ..................... 9.9 25.8 75.2 33.6 56.6 11.0 66.4 22.5

Asia

Bangladesh ..... .................. 104.3 109.6 70.5 103.8 110.9 115.8 181.2 124.0

China ......... ................... 93.4 86.6 138.5 93.7 5.7 81.0 154.3 93.5

India .... ......................... 85.1 104.6 234.9 118.9 64.2 110.0 220.4 128.5

Indonesia ... ...................... 92.7 89.8 230.8 105.3 45.0 109.1 160.0 118.2

Israel.... ......................... 76.6 59.4 59.5 59.4 36.9 42.9 94.6 55.2

Japan ... ......................... –9.3 39.3 127.4 58.7 1.4 –6.1 25.2 3.8

Malaysia... ....................... 120.4 135.0 178.4 140.9 41.1 99.3 194.7 114.2

Pakistan ... ....................... 86.0 64.1 101.3 69.1 95.7 120.0 134.1 122.3

Philippines .... .................... 109.3 110.9 136.2 114.5 71.5 108.0 179.2 119.0

Singapore ...... .................. 230.7 158.2 177.3 162.3 –13.8 101.6 194.8 122.8

South Korea ... ................... 100.8 101.9 240.3 122.3 –6.9 71.0 140.8 86.7

Sri Lanka . . . ...................... 99.2 94.3 152.6 103.5 28.9 60.8 150.4 78.3

Thailand ... ....................... 90.0 98.1 190.1 111.1 15.8 68.5 135.8 81.6

Turkey... ......................... 100.4 74.5 147.9 85.7 50.6 106.0 120.3 108.9

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina ... ...................... 42.0 40.0 75.7 47.9 45.9 38.6 66.4 45.9

Brazil. . . .......................... 104.9 104.5 156.6 112.4 44.3 92.3 150.0 102.9

Chile .... ......................... 82.9 93.5 138.5 101.1 13.2 53.2 135.7 69.5

Colombia ... ...................... 142.0 111.5 187.4 121.2 24.6 108.2 206.2 124.5

Costa Rica... ..................... 147.1 117.3 126.5 118.9 36.6 98.8 185.4 114.8

Guatemala ... ..................... 91.8 104.6 147.8 109.8 94.4 79.9 199.9 97.0

Jamaica ... ....................... 40.0 27.5 53.8 33.3 65.8 52.7 56.8 53.7

Mexico ..... ...................... 103.8 101.0 138.4 108.5 47.7 109.5 135.5 115.5

Peru ............................. 98.8 96.9 161.8 105.1 47.9 102.9 153.3 111.1

Uruguay ... ....................... 29.2 12.2 60.9 22.5 24.5 38.5 50.9 41.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 6, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 141

Table B-3.

Median Age by Country: 2000, 2020, and 2040

(In years)

Country 2000 2020 2040

Western Europe

Austria ... .............................. . 38 46 49

Belgium ... ............................. . 39 44 47

Denmark ... ............................. 38 43 44

France ................................. . 37 42 44

Germany ... ............................ . 40 47 50

Greece.... .............................. 39 46 50

Italy.......... ........................... 40 48 52

Norway..... ............................. 37 42 44

Sweden ... .............................. 40 43 46

United Kingdom ......................... . 38 42 45

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ... ............................. . 40 45 52

Czech Republic .... ...................... 38 45 52

Hungary ...... ........................... 38 43 49

Poland ... .............................. . 35 42 50

Russia .... ............................. . 37 41 47

Ukraine ... .............................. 38 42 50

Northern America/Oceania

Australia... ............................. . 35 40 44

Canada ...... ........................... 37 42 45

New Zealand ... ........................ . 33 38 43

United States ... ......................... 35 38 39

Africa

Egypt ........ ........................... 22 28 35

Kenya........ .......................... . 18 21 30

Malawi ..... ............................ . 17 18 21

Morocco... ............................. . 22 29 36

South Africa ..... ....................... . 23 28 32

Tunisia ... ............................... 25 35 43

Uganda ...... ........................... 15 15 17

Zimbabwe ... ............................ 19 22 26

Asia

Bangladesh...... ....................... . 20 26 30

China .................................. . 30 37 45

India ... ................................ . 23 28 35

Indonesia... ............................ . 25 31 38

Israel ..... .............................. 28 33 39

Japan .................................. . 41 49 54

Malaysia ... ............................ . 23 28 32

Pakistan... ............................. . 19 25 33

Philippines... ............................ 21 26 32

Singapore ... ............................ 34 45 53

South Korea ...... ...................... . 32 43 50

Sri Lanka. ..... .......................... 28 35 41

Thailand... .............................. 29 38 44

Turkey .... .............................. 26 34 42

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina.... ............................ 28 34 40

Brazil ..... ............................. . 26 34 41

Chile................................... . 29 35 42

Colombia ..... .......................... . 25 30 36

Costa Rica ... .......................... . 25 32 39

Guatemala... ............................ 18 23 30

Jamaica ... .............................. 22 27 35

Mexico ... .............................. . 23 30 37

Peru ........ .......................... . 24 30 38

Uruguay ...... ........................... 32 36 42

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 6, 2008.
142 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-4.

Sex Ratio for Population 35 Years and Over by Age and Country: 2000, 2020, and 2040

(Men per 100 women)

Country

2000 2020 2040

35 to

49

years

50 to

64

years

65 to

79

years

80

years

and

over

35 to

49

years

50 to

64

years

65 to

79

years

80

years

and

over

35 to

49

years

50 to

64

years

65 to

79

years

80

years

and

over

Western Europe

Austria..................... . 104 97 69 40 98 99 86 57 99 96 87 62

Belgium.................... . 103 98 78 43 102 99 87 52 103 100 88 59

Denmark .................... 103 100 82 49 97 99 90 59 99 94 89 62

France...................... 98 97 77 46 102 95 87 55 103 100 88 59

Germany .................... 105 99 72 36 106 102 86 56 106 103 90 60

Greece ..................... 100 95 84 68 99 97 87 62 97 96 89 63

Italy ........................ 101 94 77 50 108 101 84 55 112 107 93 60

Norway .................... . 104 102 81 50 100 101 93 57 100 98 91 63

Sweden.................... . 104 101 83 53 102 100 92 61 102 98 91 63

United Kingdom .............. 102 98 82 47 105 101 88 59 104 103 93 62

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria.................... . 96 90 76 63 100 88 73 48 102 97 78 48

Czech Republic .............. 102 93 67 42 104 98 79 46 106 101 88 53

Hungary .................... 97 84 63 43 102 90 68 38 104 96 79 44

Poland...................... 100 89 66 44 101 93 75 45 103 97 82 51

Russia..................... . 95 78 49 23 92 76 53 27 103 85 58 31

Ukraine ..................... 92 77 54 29 94 79 58 31 103 90 64 34

Northern America/Oceania

Australia .................... 101 101 86 55 102 98 88 63 102 99 89 65

Canada .................... . 101 98 82 52 102 98 86 57 102 99 87 62

New Zealand ............... . 98 98 87 53 103 99 87 61 103 100 91 63

United States ................ 98 94 79 50 101 95 84 57 101 98 87 64

Africa

Egypt...................... . 99 94 80 56 104 97 81 47 103 99 90 52

Kenya ...................... 93 89 90 91 107 94 78 72 104 103 92 62

Malawi..................... . 94 87 80 69 117 89 67 59 117 107 83 47

Morocco .................... 97 86 84 81 100 94 80 59 101 97 85 63

South Africa ................. 88 80 70 51 128 74 56 46 142 127 71 39

Tunisia...................... 98 91 99 117 102 97 84 77 105 100 90 69

Uganda .................... . 100 77 85 92 105 100 69 58 105 99 88 58

Zimbabwe .................. . 80 85 102 93 143 76 52 69 159 143 88 39

Asia

Bangladesh.................. 104 116 118 128 104 102 108 111 104 102 94 91

China...................... . 106 108 95 61 104 103 94 67 110 102 91 64

India ...................... . 107 105 95 78 105 102 92 66 108 103 91 63

Indonesia ................... 94 92 87 68 105 96 79 59 103 101 89 55

Israel ...................... . 99 93 77 70 104 99 85 64 104 101 92 67

Japan ...................... 101 97 80 47 104 99 86 55 104 101 91 57

Malaysia .................... 95 98 80 64 103 93 81 60 104 100 85 57

Pakistan ................... . 103 97 98 89 106 101 85 72 105 103 93 67

Philippines .................. 94 91 79 71 102 92 78 61 104 99 85 59

Singapore ................... 97 102 85 58 91 91 92 65 99 92 80 68

South Korea ................. 102 97 68 39 104 98 85 50 109 103 87 59

Sri Lanka .................. . 92 92 95 91 95 88 82 71 98 93 81 60

Thailand .................... 94 94 87 68 100 89 85 70 103 97 82 66

Turkey ...................... 105 97 90 62 102 103 89 64 102 99 92 66

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina ................... 100 94 75 56 100 95 80 54 103 97 83 58

Brazil ...................... . 97 89 73 50 98 92 77 52 101 94 80 55

Chile ...................... . 99 92 77 46 101 96 82 51 103 98 86 58

Colombia................... . 94 83 84 71 94 90 75 56 97 92 80 54

Costa Rica .................. 98 99 91 71 104 97 89 68 103 102 90 66

Guatemala .................. 94 99 88 77 88 87 88 68 96 89 77 62

Jamaica..................... 97 97 86 67 99 94 87 67 103 98 85 65

Mexico...................... 90 90 86 78 92 85 81 69 97 89 80 61

Peru ....................... 101 99 90 75 100 99 92 76 101 98 90 73

Uruguay .................... 95 89 75 52 102 93 76 49 102 99 85 52

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 6, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 143

Table B-5

Total and Older Urban1 Population by Sex and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2005

(Numbers in thousands)

Country and year

Male Female

65 and over

sex ratio2 All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

Western Europe

Austria

1971.... ............................. 1,763 224 12.7 2,104 403 19.2 55

1981.... ............................. 1,920 245 12.7 2,241 463 20.7 53

1991.... ............................. 2,386 272 11.4 2,646 534 20.2 51

2001.... ............................. 2,565 313 12.2 2,804 536 19.1 58

Denmark3

1970.... ............................. 1,923 207 10.8 2,024 290 14.3 71

1981.... ............................. 2,090 251 12.0 2,208 376 17.0 67

France

1975.... ............................. 18,659 1,859 10.0 19,729 3,055 15.5 61

1982.... ............................. 19,239 1,912 9.9 20,560 3,205 15.6 60

1990.... ............................. 20,194 2,237 11.1 21,729 3,626 16.7 62

1999.... ............................. 21,240 2,785 13.1 22,951 4,273 18.6 65

Greece

1971.... ............................. 2,782 240 8.6 2,904 317 10.9 76

1981.... ............................. 3,312 316 9.5 3,478 414 11.9 76

1991.... ............................. 2,914 302 10.4 3,125 413 13.2 73

2001.... ............................. 4,016 518 12.9 4,191 668 15.9 78

Norway

1970.... ............................. 1,242 122 9.8 1,313 183 13.9 67

1980.... ............................. 1,410 133 9.4 1,484 212 14.3 63

1990.... ............................. 1,489 188 12.7 1,568 287 18.3 66

2001.... ............................. 1,694 199 11.8 1,765 299 16.9 67

Sweden4

1970.... ............................. 3,232 343 10.6 3,343 474 14.2 72

1975.... ............................. 3,328 404 12.1 3,462 564 16.3 72

1980.... ............................. 3,379 453 13.4 3,535 642 18.2 71

1990.... ............................. 3,495 518 14.8 3,670 754 20.5 69

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria

1975.... ............................. 2,518 174 6.9 2,544 218 8.6 80

1987.... ............................. 2,923 221 7.6 2,998 282 9.4 78

1996.... ............................. 2,741 273 10.0 2,893 364 12.6 75

2004.... ............................. 2,622 299 11.4 2,815 438 15.5 68

Czech Republic

1994.... ............................. 3,731 365 9.8 3,989 602 15.1 61

1996.... ............................. 3,720 379 10.2 3,975 618 15.5 61

2004.... ............................. 3,641 408 11.2 3,889 645 16.6 63

Hungary

1970.... ............................. 2,218 205 9.3 2,449 326 13.3 63

1980.... ............................. 2,734 284 10.4 2,968 448 15.1 63

1988.... ............................. 3,001 289 9.6 3,285 487 14.8 59

1996.... ............................. 3,038 332 10.9 3,405 559 16.4 59

2004.... ............................. 3,134 379 12.1 3,551 654 18.4 58

Poland

1970.... ............................. 8,167 464 5.7 8,887 848 9.5 55

1978.... ............................. 9,667 660 6.8 10,473 1,171 11.2 56

1988.... ............................ . 11,120 717 6.4 12,054 1,286 10.7 56

1996.... ............................ . 11,430 917 8.0 12,467 1,560 12.5 59

2004.... ............................ . 11,163 1,117 10.0 12,327 1,876 15.2 60

See footnotes at end of table.
144 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-5

Total and Older Urban1 Population by Sex and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2005—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country and year

Male Female

65 and over

sex ratio2 All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

Eastern Europe—Con.

Russia

1970.......... ....................... 36,931 1,432 3.9 43,700 3,909 8.9 37

1979.... ............................. 43,755 2,300 5.3 51,188 5,966 11.7 39

1989.... ............................. 50,333 2,566 5.1 57,626 6,960 12.1 37

1995.... ............................. 50,405 3,684 7.3 57,374 8,330 14.5 44

2004.... ............................. 48,453 4,314 8.9 56,816 9,202 16.2 47

Ukraine

1970.... ............................ . 11,823 586 5.0 13,722 1,248 9.1 47

1979.... ............................. 13,954 888 6.4 16,215 1,898 11.7 47

1989.... ............................. 15,981 972 6.1 18,316 2,223 12.1 44

1995.... ............................. 16,299 1,292 7.9 18,530 2,603 14.0 50

2000.... ............................. 15,617 1,320 8.5 17,889 2,559 14.3 52

Northern America/Oceania

Australia5

1971.... ............................. 5,424 380 7.0 5,489 558 10.2 68

1976.... ............................. 5,769 436 7.6 5,882 637 10.8 69

1986.... ............................. 6,568 606 9.2 6,749 867 12.9 70

Canada

1971.... ............................. 8,105 558 6.9 8,306 762 9.2 73

1981.... ............................. 9,014 746 8.3 9,422 1,097 11.6 68

1991.... ............................. 10,175 1,002 9.9 10,732 1,500 14.0 67

2001.... ............................. 11,595 1,293 11.2 12,313 1,848 15.0 70

New Zealand

1981.... ............................. 1,299 115 8.9 1,352 165 12.2 70

1991.... ............................. 1,395 140 10.1 1,471 201 13.6 70

1996.... ............................. 1,503 159 10.6 1,588 220 13.9 72

2001.... ............................. 1,547 170 11.0 1,656 230 13.9 74

United States

1970.... ............................. 71,959 5,859 8.1 77,366 8,772 11.3 67

1980.... ............................. 80,287 7,328 9.1 86,767 11,673 13.5 63

1990.... ............................. 90,386 9,180 10.2 96,667 14,389 14.9 64

2000.... ............................. 108,376 3,426 10.1 113,985 4,687 14.4 67

Africa

Egypt

1976.... ............................. 8,540 265 3.1 8,018 247 3.1 107

1986.... ............................. 10,909 444 4.1 10,307 359 3.5 124

1996.... ............................. 12,958 483 3.7 12,329 388 3.2 124

Kenya

1979.... ............................. 1,307 21 1.6 1,075 18 1.7 117

1989.... ............................. 1,933 23 1.2 1,606 22 1.4 106

20036 ................................ 3,307 43 1.3 3,226 29 0.9 148

Malawi

1977.... ............................. 254 4 1.5 217 3 1.5 120

1987.... ............................. 446 7 1.6 408 6 1.6 109

1998.... ............................. 743 10 1.3 693 10 1.4 101

Morocco

1971.... ............................. 2,628 95 3.6 2,740 103 3.8 92

1982.... ............................. 4,379 138 3.2 4,355 141 3.2 98

2004.... ............................. 8,022 394 4.9 8,317 446 5.4 88

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 145

Table B-5

Total and Older Urban1 Population by Sex and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2005—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country and year

Male Female

65 and over

sex ratio2 All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

Africa—Con.

South Africa

1970................................. 5,498 163 3.0 4,912 221 4.5 74

1985.... ............................. 6,556 266 4.1 6,512 376 5.8 71

1991.... ............................. 8,914 356 4.0 8,637 452 5.2 79

1996.... ............................. 10,668 391 3.7 11,114 590 5.3 66

Tunisia

1975.... ............................. 1,402 51 3.6 1,378 47 3.4 108

1984.... ............................. 1,869 84 4.5 1,816 75 4.2 111

1994.... ............................. 2,717 138 5.1 2,645 139 5.2 99

Uganda

1969.... ............................. 398 6 1.5 335 5 1.4 130

1991.... ............................. 917 12 1.3 973 15 1.5 77

2002.... ............................. 1,450 20 1.4 1,550 27 1.7 74

Zimbabwe

1982.... ............................. 941 29 3.0 825 16 2.0 175

1992.... ............................. 1,636 33 2.0 1,551 29 1.8 114

1997.... ............................. 1,906 38 2.0 1,920 25 1.3 154

Asia

Bangladesh

1974.... ............................. 3,539 85 2.4 2,735 63 2.3 134

1981.... ............................. 7,370 226 3.1 5,858 157 2.7 144

1991.... ............................ . 11,301 306 2.7 9,571 223 2.3 137

20046 ................................ 15,972 607 3.8 15,856 444 3.2 137

China

1982.... ............................. 107,915 4,183 3.9 98,332 5,187 5.3 81

1990.... ............................. 157,492 7,082 4.5 142,666 8,260 5.8 86

2000.... ............................. 235,265 14,088 6.0 223,506 15,378 6.9 92

India

1971.... ............................. 58,718 1,526 2.6 50,378 1,495 3.0 102

1981.... ............................. 83,876 2,486 3.0 73,804 2,546 3.4 98

1991.... ............................ . 113,937 3,767 3.3 101,835 3,704 3.6 102

2001.......... ....................... 150,554 5,969 4.0 135,566 6,344 4.7 94

Indonesia

1971.... ............................. 10,194 197 1.9 10,256 245 2.4 80

1980.... ............................. 16,440 375 2.3 16,402 490 3.0 77

1990.... ............................. 27,683 801 2.9 27,750 981 3.5 82

2000.... ............................. 42,760 1,522 3.6 42,621 1,791 4.2 85

Israel

1972.... ............................. 1,343 101 7.5 1,341 104 7.8 97

1983.... ............................. 1,793 156 8.7 1,823 178 9.7 88

1995.... ............................. 2,452 211 8.6 2,519 281 11.2 75

2004.... ............................. 3,064 270 8.8 3,163 367 11.6 74

Japan

1970.... ............................. 36,890 2,045 5.5 37,799 2,613 6.9 78

1975.... ............................. 41,989 2,580 6.1 42,933 3,387 7.9 76

1980.... ............................. 43,979 3,095 7.0 45,138 4,219 9.3 73

1985.... ............................. 45,766 3,560 7.8 47,083 5,138 10.9 69

1990.... ............................. 47,124 4,225 9.0 48,519 6,280 12.9 67

1995.... ............................. 48,210 5,386 11.2 49,799 7,694 15.4 70

2000.... ............................. 49,006 6,786 13.9 50,860 9,321 18.3 73

See footnotes at end of table.
146 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-5

Total and Older Urban1 Population by Sex and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2005—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country and year

Male Female

65 and over

sex ratio2 All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

Asia—Con.

Malaysia

1970.......... ....................... 1,402 41 2.9 1,378 46 3.3 88

1980.... ............................. 2,045 69 3.4 2,028 80 3.9 87

1991.... ............................. 4,473 133 3.0 4,426 167 3.8 80

2000.... ............................. 7,318 218 3.0 7,108 261 3.7 83

Pakistan

1972.... ............................. 9,019 290 3.2 7,561 213 2.8 136

1981.... ............................. 12,767 447 3.5 11,074 327 3.0 136

1998.... ............................. 22,374 641 2.9 20,001 537 2.7 119

2003.... ............................. 25,819 877 3.4 23,821 726 3.1 121

Philippines

1970.... ............................. 5,671 149 2.6 5,999 170 2.8 88

1980.... ............................. 8,765 244 2.8 9,178 342 3.7 71

1990.... ............................. 14,546 415 2.9 14,894 538 3.6 77

20036 ................................ 21,432 686 3.2 22,443 965 4.3 71

Singapore7

1970.... ............................. 1,062 31 2.9 1,012 39 3.8 79

1980.... ............................. 1,232 51 4.2 1,182 63 5.3 82

1990.... ............................. 1,518 75 5.0 1,499 93 6.2 81

South Korea

1975.... ............................. 8,370 129 1.5 8,400 254 3.0 51

1985.... ............................. 13,154 271 2.1 13,264 522 3.9 52

1995.... ............................. 17,596 536 3.0 17,396 978 5.6 55

2000.... ............................. 18,418 757 4.1 18,225 1,244 6.8 61

Sri Lanka

1971.... ............................. 1,513 58 3.9 1,335 56 4.2 104

1981.... ............................. 1,666 69 4.1 1,529 72 4.7 95

Thailand

1970.... ............................. 2,257 56 2.5 2,296 79 3.5 70

1980.... ............................. 3,744 109 2.9 3,888 148 3.8 74

1990.... ............................. 4,941 173 3.5 5,266 231 4.4 75

2000.... ............................. 9,086 476 5.2 9,748 626 6.4 76

2004.... ............................. 9,261 528 5.7 10,039 711 7.1 74

Turkey

1980.... ............................. 10,272 345 3.4 9,373 457 4.9 75

1985.... ............................. 14,011 399 2.8 12,855 533 4.1 75

1990.......... ....................... 17,248 519 3.0 16,079 675 4.2 77

2000.... ............................. 22,428 919 4.1 21,579 1,179 5.5 78

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina

1980.... ............................. 11,214 821 7.3 11,979 1,159 9.7 71

1995.... ............................. 14,821 1,186 8.0 15,736 1,761 11.2 67

2001.... ............................. 17,659 1,293 8.3 18,601 1,977 11.8 65

Brazil

1970.... ............................. 25,173 803 3.2 26,802 1,010 3.8 80

1980.... ............................. 39,192 1,448 3.7 41,173 1,865 4.5 78

1991.... ............................. 53,854 2,333 4.3 57,137 3,083 5.4 76

2000.... ............................. 66,883 3,426 5.1 71,071 4,687 6.6 73

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 147

Table B-5

Total and Older Urban1 Population by Sex and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2005—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country and year

Male Female

65 and over

sex ratio2 All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population All ages 65 and over

65+ as a

percent of

total

population

Latin America/Caribbean—Con.

Chile

1970.... ............................. 3,173 140 4.4 3,502 194 5.5 72

1982.... ............................. 4,464 219 4.9 4,852 313 6.5 70

1992.... ............................. 5,365 288 5.4 5,776 427 7.4 68

2005.... ............................. 6,910 440 6.4 7,213 647 9.0 68

Colombia

1973.... ............................. 5,905 172 2.9 6,703 233 3.5 74

1985.... ............................. 8,928 322 3.6 9,786 407 4.2 79

1993.... ............................ . 11,212 473 4.2 12,302 593 4.8 80

20006 ................................ 13,508 729 5.4 14,354 947 6.6 77

20056 ................................ 15,114 982 6.5 15,878 1,223 7.7 80

Costa Rica

1973.......... ....................... 361 14 3.9 399 18 4.6 76

1984.......... ....................... 514 24 4.7 561 32 5.8 75

2000.......... ....................... 1,096 60 5.4 1,153 77 6.7 77

Guatemala

1973.... ............................. 906 29 3.2 973 37 3.8 80

1981.... ............................. 950 35 3.7 1,031 43 4.1 83

1989.......... ....................... 1,657 56 3.4 1,734 72 4.1 78

Jamaica

1982.... ............................. 494 23 4.7 552 33 6.0 70

1991.... ............................. 543 28 5.1 605 40 6.6 70

2004.... ............................. 655 38 5.9 718 52 7.2 74

Mexico

1970.... ............................. 13,883 463 3.3 14,426 581 4.0 80

1995.... ............................. 32,720 1,277 3.9 34,283 1,571 4.6 81

2003.... ............................. 40,689 1,789 4.4 41,113 2,176 5.3 82

Peru

1972.... ............................. 4,028 125 3.1 4,030 154 3.8 81

1981.... ............................. 5,518 193 3.5 5,574 225 4.0 86

1993.... ............................. 7,606 325 4.3 7,852 372 4.7 87

2004.... ............................. 10,000 485 4.9 9,966 567 5.7 86

Uruguay

1975.... ............................. 1,100 100 9.1 1,215 138 11.4 72

1985.... ............................. 1,222 120 9.8 1,359 178 13.1 67

1996.... ............................. 1,366 148 10.8 1,506 226 15.0 66

2004.... ............................. 1,471 159 10.8 1,612 250 15.5 64

1 Urban refers to localities defined as such by each country, and definitions often differ among countries. National definitions are usually based on criteria

that may include any of the following: size of population in a locality, population density, distance between built-up areas, predominant type of economic activity,

legal or administrative boundaries, and the presence of specific services and facilities. The definition of ‘‘urban’’ withinagiven country may change over time,

and geographic areas that were once considered rural may be classified as urban atalater date. 2 65 and over sex ratio is defined as the number of men aged 65 and over per 100 women aged 65 and over. 3 Urban/rural estimates after 1981 are available from population registers for individual areas and municipalities, but published data are not aggregated to

produce national figures. 4 The last national Population and Housing Census was conducted in 1990. More recent estimates, based on information from population registers, are

readily available for subnational regions only. 5 National-level estimates for Australia are not readily available after 1986. Government estimates for 2004 suggest that the percentage of population at

ages 45 and above is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. 6 Data for the following countries/years were derived using (1) population percentage distributions by age, sex, and urban/rural residence reported in

national demographic and health survey volumes and (2) corresponding midyear population age/sex distributions estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau:

Colombia 2000 and 2005; Philippines 2003; Kenya 2003; and Bangladesh 2004. 7 In 2000, Singapore began conducting register-based population censuses. Population age/sex structure is readily available only for the resident

population, which constituted about 80 percent of the total enumerated population in 2000. The percent aged 65 and over among men and women in 2000 was

6.6 and 8.0, respectively.

Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, various issues of the Demographic Yearbook; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division data files; and country sources.
148 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Western Europe

Austria

1975

55 to 64............... 293 18 252 11 12 4.1 418 45 234 24 115 27.6

65 and over............ 419 28 303 12 76 18.2 712 90 198 26 398 55.9

75 and over............ 128 8 75 3 42 32.9 271 36 38 7 190 70.1

1982

55 to 64............... 325 19 282 12 12 3.7 464 48 287 29 100 21.5

65 and over............ 398 25 289 12 72 18.2 717 83 189 31 414 57.7

75 and over............ 152 10 92 4 46 30.1 319 40 46 10 224 70.2

1991

55 to 64............... 368 24 310 20 15 4.0 407 33 269 28 76 18.8

65 and over............ 404 22 303 13 66 16.3 763 79 230 39 415 54.4

80 and over............ 81 5 46 2 29 35.4 202 23 20 7 152 75.4

2001

55 to 64............... 438 29 340 57 12 2.7 465 30 308 68 60 12.8

65 and over............ 472 22 352 35 63 13.3 770 66 263 61 380 49.3

75 and over............ 179 7 120 12 40 22.2 403 38 79 28 258 63.9

Belgium

1970

55 to 64............... 510 42 432 9 27 5.3 568 48 397 11 112 19.8

65 and over............ 532 37 367 6 121 22.8 764 76 289 10 389 50.9

75 and over............ 165 11 88 1 66 39.8 279 32 58 3 186 66.8

1981

55 to 64............... 486 35 417 13 21 4.4 531 39 382 15 95 17.9

65 and over............ 560 40 394 10 115 20.6 855 77 311 17 450 52.6

75 and over............ 196 13 111 3 69 35.4 371 36 76 6 253 68.2

1995

55 to 64............... 539 38 447 33 21 3.9 573 29 427 35 82 14.3

65 and over............ 639 41 473 20 105 16.4 957 70 378 32 477 49.9

75 and over............ 206 13 127 4 62 30.1 416 35 84 10 287 68.9

Denmark2

1970

55 to 64............... 266 24 216 15 12 4.5 285 28 189 20 48 16.7

65 and over............ 268 22 182 9 55 20.7 342 48 125 15 155 45.2

75 and over............ 92 7 50 2 33 36.3 128 19 26 4 78 61.3

1984

55 to 64............... 259 21 206 20 12 4.5 279 17 192 25 45 16.1

65 and over............ 318 25 220 16 57 17.9 444 45 160 28 210 47.3

75 and over............ 116 9 69 4 35 29.8 199 25 41 10 122 61.6

1991

55 to 64............... 242 20 186 26 11 4.3 257 13 176 29 39 15.2

65 and over............ 331 25 226 20 59 17.9 471 38 170 35 229 48.6

80 and over............ 63 5 33 2 23 36.9 129 15 18 7 90 69.7

2000

55 to 64............... 303 25 226 42 10 3.3 306 14 211 48 32 10.6

65 and over............ 330 22 223 26 58 17.7 461 27 169 42 224 48.6

75 and over............ 138 9 83 8 39 27.9 239 16 53 17 153 64.0

2007

55 to 64............... 353 39 253 50 10 2.9 355 23 243 61 28 7.8

65 and over............ 359 22 245 35 56 15.6 468 21 189 53 204 43.7

75 and over............ 144 8 88 10 38 26.7 233 12 55 19 146 62.7

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 149

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Western Europe—Con.

France

1977

55 to 64............... 2,134 186 1,796 60 92 4.3 2,390 194 1,624 95 477 20.0

65 and over............ 2,814 216 2,041 57 500 17.8 4,409 435 1,523 121 2,331 52.9

75 and over............ 917 60 566 13 279 30.4 1,898 204 346 39 1,309 69.0

1987

55 to 64............... 2,829 265 2,347 112 104 3.7 3,117 236 2,182 156 543 17.4

65 and over............ 2,866 214 2,100 76 476 16.6 4,536 388 1,582 159 2,406 53.1

75 and over............ 1,217 88 776 26 327 26.9 2,376 220 496 69 1,592 67.0

1999

55 to 64............... 2,687 234 2,155 226 72 2.7 2,800 189 1,992 277 342 12.2

65 and over............ 3,971 321 3,016 151 482 12.1 5,779 437 2,424 267 2,651 45.9

75 and over............ 1,614 117 1,133 40 323 20.0 2,888 230 759 105 1,794 62.1

Germany

1970

55 to 64............... 3,137 136 2,795 82 124 3.9 4,304 392 2,502 171 1,240 28.8

65 and over............ 3,087 132 2,317 51 586 19.0 4,904 574 1,547 127 2,656 54.2

75 and over............ 879 36 518 9 316 35.9 1,680 201 275 32 1,172 69.8

1982

55 to 64............... 2,737 111 2,446 79 102 3.7 3,807 339 2,495 185 788 20.7

65 and over............ 3,216 130 2,426 65 596 18.5 5,957 569 1,703 207 3,478 58.4

75 and over............ 1,251 56 793 19 384 30.7 2,631 288 423 67 1,854 70.4

1988

55 to 64............... 3,265 171 2,822 145 127 3.9 3,638 278 2,515 194 651 17.9

65 and over............ 3,246 123 2,474 81 567 17.5 6,269 575 1,875 238 3,581 57.1

75 and over............ 1,404 58 921 28 397 28.3 3,158 301 516 94 2,247 71.2

2001

55 to 64............... 5,433 373 4,491 378 191 3.5 5,570 236 4,129 504 701 12.6

65 and over............ 5,610 207 4,433 178 783 14.0 8,356 523 3,430 412 3,989 47.7

75 and over............ 1,842 47 1,313 35 439 23.8 3,884 281 908 165 2,528 65.1

Greece

1971

55 to 64............... 444 21 405 5 14 3.1 476 28 331 8 110 23.1

65 and over............ 418 21 334 3 61 14.6 538 27 210 5 296 55.1

1981

55 to 64............... 424 19 392 4 9 2.1 475 30 340 9 96 20.3

65 and over............ 550 21 456 4 69 12.6 689 33 300 7 349 50.7

75 and over............ 190 7 140 1 42 22.0 264 11 75 2 177 66.9

1991

55 to 64............... 631 24 584 8 15 2.4 669 37 506 15 111 16.6

65 and over............ 618 21 507 5 85 13.8 786 40 334 9 403 51.3

80 and over............ 128 4 83 1 40 31.5 182 7 38 1 136 74.5

2001

55 to 64............... 569 27 508 20 15 2.6 631 30 457 32 112 17.8

65 and over............ 818 30 683 15 91 11.1 1,010 55 469 36 451 44.6

75 and over............ 279 10 211 4 55 19.7 380 21 109 13 237 62.3

Italy

1971

55 to 64............... 2,801 299 2,349 31 122 4.4 3,113 462 1,964 28 659 21.2

65 and over............ 2,551 274 1,768 19 490 19.2 4,292 560 1,199 16 2,516 58.6

75 and over............ 793 77 441 4 271 34.2 1,600 197 232 4 1,167 73.0

See footnotes at end of table.
150 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Western Europe—Con.

Italy—Con.

1981

55 to 64............... 2,701 203 2,373 36 89 3.3 3,102 347 2,106 45 604 19.5

65 and over............ 3,069 202 2,332 26 508 16.6 4,416 559 1,574 27 2,255 51.1

75 and over............ 968 59 610 6 294 30.3 1,716 226 329 5 1,155 67.3

1991

55 to 64............... 3,182 281 2,743 56 102 3.2 3,508 319 2,515 63 611 17.4

65 and over............ 3,544 266 2,724 32 521 14.7 5,187 599 1,937 42 2,609 50.3

75 and over............ 1,391 99 935 8 349 25.1 2,412 297 521 11 1,583 65.6

2001

55 to 64............... 3,278 264 2,798 126 90 2.7 3,512 255 2,634 139 485 13.8

65 and over............ 4,385 309 3,441 71 564 12.9 6,261 616 2,490 81 3,073 49.1

75 and over............ 1,729 113 1,227 16 373 21.6 3,033 333 699 22 1,979 65.3

Norway

1977

55 to 64............... 226 26 183 9 8 3.5 240 23 171 11 36 15.0

65 and over............ 246 29 170 6 41 16.8 331 56 123 10 141 42.7

75 and over............ 88 11 49 1 26 30.0 137 27 29 4 78 56.5

1987

55 to 64............... 205 22 162 14 7 3.4 215 14 154 14 33 15.3

65 and over............ 279 30 197 9 43 15.5 389 48 150 15 176 45.2

75 and over............ 104 12 62 2 28 26.6 175 28 38 5 104 59.5

2001

55 to 64............... 230 17 181 27 5 2.1 230 11 167 32 20 8.9

65 and over............ 282 23 200 17 41 14.7 395 26 156 24 189 47.7

75 and over............ 131 11 84 5 31 23.4 222 18 56 10 138 62.4

Sweden

1977

55 to 64............... 485 60 374 34 17 3.5 504 41 353 40 69 13.8

65 and over............ 569 73 379 24 94 16.4 731 111 278 35 307 42.0

75 and over............ 196 25 108 5 58 29.4 299 56 61 11 171 57.1

1987

55 to 64............... 431 52 314 51 13 3.0 453 30 313 56 54 12.0

65 and over............ 657 76 443 41 97 14.8 874 92 345 61 375 43.0

75 and over............ 263 31 156 11 65 24.8 418 57 98 22 242 57.8

2001

55 to 64............... 581 88 373 108 12 2.0 574 55 358 124 37 6.4

65 and over............ 662 62 431 79 90 13.6 880 56 351 110 363 41.3

75 and over............ 309 27 188 25 68 22.1 486 32 132 45 278 57.1

United Kingdom

1971

55 to 64............... 3,066 261 2,625 36 144 4.7 3,430 382 2,363 58 627 18.3

65 and over............ 2,798 206 2,017 17 558 20.0 4,478 671 1,561 32 2,215 49.5

75 and over............ 837 54 478 3 303 36.2 1,759 287 329 5 1,138 64.7

1986

55 to 64............... 2,888 255 2,378 132 123 4.3 3,081 215 2,206 163 497 16.1

65 and over............ 3,353 253 2,425 80 596 17.8 5,141 544 1,902 135 2,561 49.8

75 and over............ 1,201 90 736 20 355 29.6 2,402 305 514 39 1,544 64.3

1991

55 to 64............... 2,831 239 2,302 179 111 3.9 2,972 181 2,142 209 440 14.8

65 and over............ 3,615 270 2,588 107 650 18.0 5,395 501 2,068 163 2,664 49.4

80 and over............ 624 43 336 9 237 37.9 1,464 181 225 21 1,037 70.8

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 151

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Western Europe—Con.

United Kingdom—Con.

2001

55 to 64............... 3,061 253 2,320 391 98 3.2 3,158 157 2,204 460 337 10.7

65 and over............ 3,911 290 2,709 240 672 17.2 5,430 381 2,139 317 2,592 47.7

80 and over............ 1,610 113 984 59 454 28.2 2,794 224 686 98 1,786 63.9

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria

1975

55 to 64............... 400 5 371 5 18 4.5 421 8 326 8 80 18.9

65 and over............ 443 5 338 4 96 21.7 524 7 255 5 257 49.0

75 and over............ 124 1 72 1 50 40.1 168 2 48 1 118 70.0

1985

55 to 64............... 547 12 496 13 25 4.7 586 12 440 20 113 19.2

65 and over............ 458 8 338 6 106 23.2 565 10 245 10 301 53.2

75 and over............ 167 3 97 2 66 39.2 228 4 61 3 160 70.2

2001

55 to 64............... 432 16 376 21 19 4.5 490 10 345 29 106 21.6

65 and over............ 561 9 429 12 111 19.8 761 15 312 25 409 53.7

75 and over............ 190 2 120 3 65 34.2 292 6 70 7 208 71.5

Czech Republic3

1980

55 to 64............... 647 31 560 30 26 4.0 758 35 501 45 176 23.2

65 and over............ 749 31 552 21 144 19.3 1,143 71 363 39 670 58.6

75 and over............ 216 8 128 4 75 34.9 424 31 65 11 317 74.9

1989

55 to 64............... 720 35 615 41 30 4.1 847 30 554 63 200 23.6

65 and over............ 704 29 534 23 119 16.8 1,131 55 359 52 664 58.8

75 and over............ 266 11 175 6 74 28.0 512 28 92 16 376 73.4

2001

55 to 64............... 525 25 426 55 19 3.5 583 16 393 70 105 18.0

65 and over............ 541 18 404 29 90 16.7 862 26 281 63 492 57.0

75 and over............ 187 6 121 7 53 28.4 379 13 62 23 281 74.1

Hungary

1976

55 to 64............... 471 17 418 17 19 4.0 565 31 361 33 139 24.7

65 and over............ 557 20 415 13 109 19.5 800 51 257 28 464 58.0

75 and over............ 163 5 94 3 61 37.4 281 18 39 6 218 77.5

1986

55 to 64............... 568 23 488 30 28 4.9 685 30 434 55 166 24.3

65 and over............ 515 18 375 15 107 20.8 820 48 232 37 503 61.4

75 and over............ 193 7 114 4 68 35.2 357 23 50 10 274 76.7

1990

55 to 64............... 540 21 454 36 29 5.5 654 24 409 57 164 25.0

65 and over............ 527 17 391 18 102 19.4 846 44 253 40 509 60.2

75 and over............ 200 7 126 5 63 31.5 377 22 58 12 284 75.5

2001

55 to 64............... 509 27 402 53 27 5.3 635 23 380 75 157 24.8

65 and over............ 575 21 422 28 104 18.1 971 39 293 65 574 59.1

75 and over............ 204 7 131 7 59 28.9 415 20 67 21 307 74.0

See footnotes at end of table.
152 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Eastern Europe—Con.

Poland

1978

55 to 64............... 1,211 38 1,102 26 45 3.7 1,522 114 993 47 369 24.2

65 and over............ 1,389 43 1,105 19 222 16.0 2,172 182 703 29 1,259 58.0

75 and over............ 386 11 257 4 114 29.5 766 68 123 5 570 74.4

1984

55 to 64............... 1,641 54 1,473 40 73 4.5 2,024 124 1,346 71 484 23.9

65 and over............ 1,341 39 1,044 18 241 18.0 2,207 167 666 30 1,344 60.9

70 and over............ 938 26 695 11 206 21.9 1,645 128 398 18 1,101 66.9

1990

55 to 64............... 1,742 71 1,534 54 83 4.8 2,075 119 1,378 86 492 23.7

65 and over............ 1,404 46 1,081 23 253 18.0 2,323 185 722 38 1,378 59.3

75 and over............ 529 19 349 6 155 29.4 1,043 90 171 10 772 74.1

2002

55 to 64............... 1,554 84 1,321 83 67 4.3 1,823 85 1,210 125 404 22.2

65 and over............ 1,830 59 1,418 56 297 16.2 2,998 152 1,023 102 1,722 57.4

75 and over............ 588 15 395 13 166 28.3 1,247 74 220 25 927 74.4

Russia

1979

55 to 64............... 3,599 32 3,323 104 139 3.9 7,055 412 3,546 578 2,519 35.7

65 and over............ 3,700 26 3,099 58 518 14.0 9,969 364 2,142 323 7,140 71.6

70 and over............ 1,998 14 1,565 26 393 19.6 6,183 204 949 147 4,884 79.0

1989

55 to 64............... 6,943 102 6,116 360 364 5.2 9,771 489 5,699 952 2,632 26.9

65 and over............ 3,692 35 2,930 78 649 17.6 10,398 566 2,440 471 6,922 66.6

70 and over............ 2,330 20 1,750 38 521 22.4 7,269 343 1,186 247 5,492 75.6

2002

55 to 64............... 5,570 150 4,566 463 391 7.0 7,650 271 4,245 993 2,142 28.0

65 and over............ 5,993 78 4,529 216 1,170 19.5 12,692 593 3,765 831 7,503 59.1

70 and over............ 3,564 37 2,552 92 882 24.7 8,818 462 2,033 477 5,846 66.3

Ukraine

1979

55 to 64............... 1,536 13 1,434 34 56 3.6 2,831 158 1,492 202 979 34.6

65 and over............ 1,818 13 1,498 22 285 15.7 4,015 123 1,013 109 2,769 69.0

70 and over............ 1,057 7 812 10 228 21.5 2,488 68 477 49 1,894 76.1

1989

55 to 64............... 2,588 30 2,328 101 129 5.0 3,591 202 2,149 315 925 25.8

65 and over............ 1,761 15 1,388 30 327 18.6 4,273 203 1,111 168 2,791 65.3

70 and over............ 1,098 9 809 15 267 24.3 2,892 114 514 83 2,180 75.4

2001

55 to 64............... 2,285 45 1,932 156 152 6.6 3,128 97 1,807 340 884 28.3

65 and over............ 2,322 23 1,767 66 466 20.1 4,625 243 1,385 233 2,764 59.8

70 and over............ 1,455 12 1,047 31 366 25.1 3,338 189 789 141 2,219 66.5

Northern America/

Oceania

Australia

1971

55 to 64............... 545 45 447 28 25 4.6 562 40 379 29 113 20.2

65 and over............ 447 40 304 19 84 18.8 618 66 205 19 328 53.0

75 and over............ 140 12 77 5 46 33.1 246 29 43 5 169 68.5

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 153

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Northern America/

Oceania

Australia

1981

55 to 64............... 651 50 530 45 26 4.0 675 33 473 48 121 17.9

65 and over... ......... 601 45 433 29 94 15.7 828 68 307 30 424 51.1

1986

55 to 64............... 715 56 574 59 26 3.6 721 31 511 62 116 16.1

65 and over... ......... 693 49 507 37 100 14.5 953 65 384 41 463 48.5

75 and over... ......... 230 16 147 9 57 25.0 396 34 93 10 258 65.2

1996

55 to 64............... 745 50 581 93 21 2.8 739 29 523 98 89 12.1

65 and over... ......... 932 59 673 69 131 14.1 1,219 60 513 75 570 46.8

75 and over... ......... 338 20 219 17 82 24.3 555 33 143 21 359 64.7

2001

55 to 64............... 885 59 671 134 22 2.4 875 36 609 146 84 9.6

65 and over... ......... 1,043 63 748 90 142 13.6 1,328 58 575 100 596 44.9

75 and over... ......... 427 25 280 26 97 22.6 663 33 189 31 410 61.9

Canada

1976

55 to 64............... 928 76 778 42 32 3.5 996 79 690 50 177 17.8

65 and over... ......... 875 84 627 31 133 15.2 1,127 115 422 29 561 49.8

75 and over... ......... 296 29 177 8 81 27.5 452 48 95 6 304 67.2

1986

55 to 64............... 1,124 83 926 79 37 3.3 1,204 72 849 94 188 15.6

65 and over... ......... 1,133 86 844 50 153 13.5 1,506 76 618 57 754 50.1

75 and over... ......... 394 32 256 14 93 23.6 653 65 146 13 428 65.6

1996

55 to 64............... 1,224 77 1,000 116 31 2.5 1,265 68 894 151 152 12.0

65 and over... ......... 1,488 95 1,115 89 189 12.7 2,038 139 846 116 938 46.0

75 and over... ......... 544 34 368 24 118 21.7 919 74 231 31 584 63.5

2001

55 to 64............... 1,411 91 1,139 150 30 2.2 1,457 83 1,026 205 143 9.8

65 and over... ......... 1,663 98 1,247 111 205 12.4 2,226 138 945 153 990 44.5

75 and over... ......... 657 38 450 32 137 20.8 1,089 76 298 46 669 61.5

New Zealand

1976

55 to 64............... 127 9 108 5 5 4.1 137 9 97 6 25 18.0

65 and over... ......... 119 8 88 4 19 16.1 160 16 62 4 78 48.5

75 and over... ......... 35 2 22 1 10 29.5 62 7 13 1 41 66.0

1986

55 to 64............... 142 10 115 12 6 4.1 143 7 101 11 23 16.3

65 and over... ......... 141 9 103 6 22 15.9 196 15 78 7 96 49.2

75 and over... ......... 48 3 30 2 13 27.0 82 7 19 2 54 65.8

1996

55 to 64............... 137 8 113 12 4 2.8 139 5 103 15 16 11.7

65 and over... ......... 167 10 125 9 23 13.7 218 12 95 11 100 46.0

75 and over... ......... 59 3 39 2 14 24.1 99 7 26 3 63 63.9

2001

55 to 64............... 156 10 118 24 5 3.0 161 7 110 26 18 11.1

65 and over... ......... 184 10 132 15 27 14.7 237 11 99 16 111 46.8

75 and over... ......... 73 4 48 4 17 24.1 117 6 31 5 75 64.0

See footnotes at end of table.

—Con.

—Con.
154 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Northern America/

Oceania—Con.

United States

1980

55 to 64............... 10,057 552 8,398 740 367 3.7 11,472 569 7,718 1,080 2,105 18.3

65 and over............ 10,012 564 7,441 511 1,495 14.9 15,021 1,014 5,339 790 7,878 52.4

75 and over............ 3,386 199 2,157 138 893 26.4 6,276 464 1,189 227 4,396 70.0

1990

55 to 64............... 9,981 556 8,004 1,073 347 3.5 11,167 508 7,398 1,483 1,777 15.9

65 and over............ 12,565 619 9,399 766 1,782 14.2 18,677 1,026 7,218 1,207 9,226 49.4

75 and over............ 4,624 227 3,111 206 1,080 23.4 8,512 536 1,964 373 5,638 66.2

2000

55 to 64............... 11,569 650 8,909 1,687 323 2.8 12,602 627 8,129 2,342 1,504 11.9

65 and over............ 14,382 633 10,610 1,140 1,999 13.9 20,597 889 8,626 1,748 9,333 45.3

75 and over............ 6,027 248 4,147 329 1,302 21.6 10,451 476 3,174 595 6,206 59.4

2006

55 to 64............... 15,234 1,164 10,599 3,091 380 2.5 16,385 1,122 9,797 3,895 1,571 9.6

65 and over............ 15,607 713 10,599 2,087 2,207 14.1 21,584 985 8,145 2,869 9,586 44.4

75 and over............ 6,929 287 4,308 773 1,562 22.5 11,325 512 2,886 1,071 6,856 60.5

Africa

Egypt

1976

55 to 64............... 958 37 875 5 41 4.3 899 41 444 9 405 45.1

65 and over............ 634 33 514 4 83 13.0 668 38 154 5 471 70.5

1986

55 to 64............... 1,239 48 1,120 7 64 5.1 1,259 43 680 17 518 41.1

65 and over............ 948 83 725 5 136 14.3 849 71 201 8 569 67.0

1996

55 to 64............... 1,479 11 1,392 6 70 4.7 710 14 75 17 604 85.1

65 and over............ 1,061 7 888 4 162 15.2 948 10 218 8 712 75.1

75 and over............ 240 2 178 1 60 24.9 224 3 23 1 197 87.9

Malawi

1977

55 to 64............... 113 2 105 4 3 2.4 121 1 76 14 30 24.9

65 and over............ 122 2 106 5 9 7.2 126 2 50 13 61 48.6

1987

55 to 64............... 147 2 135 6 4 2.5 164 1 101 22 39 23.8

65 and over............ 158 2 136 8 12 7.8 169 2 65 22 80 47.2

Morocco

1971

55 to 64............... 333 11 305 6 11 3.2 299 10 132 17 140 46.6

65 and over............ 373 13 314 9 37 9.8 341 14 66 17 243 71.5

1982

55 to 64............... 482 8 452 8 14 2.9 457 6 241 23 188 41.2

65 and over............ 425 8 367 9 40 9.5 375 8 85 15 267 71.1

75 and over............ 170 4 137 5 24 14.4 143 3 19 6 116 81.1

1994

55 to 64............... 657 18 619 5 15 2.2 680 4 419 24 232 34.1

65 and over............ 593 16 521 8 49 8.2 576 4 174 30 367 63.8

75 and over............ 210 4 171 4 30 14.3 188 1 32 8 147 78.1

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 155

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Africa—Con.

South Africa

1985

55 to 64............... 544 38 466 13 27 5.0 627 43 375 22 188 30.0

65 and over............ 464 31 361 8 64 13.9 647 42 235 12 357 55.2

75 and over............ 141 10 100 2 29 20.7 231 17 59 3 153 66.1

1991

55 to 64............... 746 52 631 22 40 5.4 828 62 490 39 237 28.6

65 and over............ 551 28 427 12 83 15.1 780 45 284 19 431 55.3

75 and over............ 161 8 112 3 38 23.4 271 17 65 5 185 68.2

1996

55 to 64............... 818 82 663 32 41 5.1 1,110 131 648 60 270 24.4

65 and over............ 724 59 554 19 93 12.8 1,135 101 491 31 512 45.1

75 and over............ 235 20 168 5 43 18.3 410 36 143 8 223 54.3

Tunisia

1975

55 to 64............... 158 4 147 1 6 3.7 129 3 81 3 42 32.3

65 and over............ 119 3 101 1 14 11.4 100 4 31 4 62 61.5

1984

55 to 64............... 191 4 180 1 6 3.1 172 3 114 2 53 30.9

65 and over............ 167 6 142 1 18 10.9 132 5 44 1 81 61.8

75 and over............ 48 4 36 – 9 18.3 41 3 7 – 31 76.3

1994

55 to 64............... 260 5 249 2 5 1.8 258 3 185 4 65 25.3

65 and over............ 247 6 217 2 23 9.3 228 3 87 3 134 58.9

75 and over............ 86 2 70 1 14 16.2 78 2 16 1 59 76.0

Uganda

1969

55 to 64............... 195 22 143 19 10 5.1 224 14 128 25 56 25.2

65 and over............ 204 22 139 20 22 11.0 159 15 42 15 86 54.5

1991

55 to 64............... 272 18 206 32 16 5.8 278 8 134 35 101 36.3

65 and over............ 282 17 196 33 36 12.9 273 8 74 28 163 59.6

75 and over............ 114 6 75 13 20 17.3 102 3 18 9 72 70.1

Zimbabwe

1982

55 to 64............... 144 6 127 6 5 3.1 126 4 76 7 39 31.0

65 and over............ 116 7 95 5 9 8.0 123 6 44 5 67 54.6

75 and over............ 47 4 37 2 5 11.1 53 3 15 2 33 62.0

1992

55 to 64............... 190 5 170 9 6 3.2 171 3 102 13 53 31.2

65 and over............ 161 5 134 8 15 9.0 181 4 58 9 111 61.1

75 and over............ 52 2 40 3 7 13.9 68 2 14 3 50 73.2

Asia

Bangladesh

1974

55 to 64............... 1,695 14 1,595 2 84 4.9 1,339 4 578 5 752 56.2

65 and over............ 1,373 12 1,212 1 148 10.8 1,001 5 209 2 786 78.5

1981

55 to 64............... 1,969 29 1,865 1 75 3.8 1,600 14 744 4 838 52.4

65 and over............ 1,705 4 1,518 1 181 10.6 1,250 1 345 2 902 72.2

See footnotes at end of table.
156 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Asia—Con.

Bangladesh—Con.

1991

55 to 64............... 2,315 12 2,255 2 47 2.0 1,904 11 1,083 5 804 42.2

65 and over............ 1,981 13 1,862 4 102 5.2 1,451 13 541 4 894 61.6

China4

1982

50 to 59............... 38,995 1,159 33,740 781 3,316 8.5 35,626 75 29,271 167 6,113 17.2

60 to 79............... 33,773 858 23,850 530 8,535 25.3 37,708 109 16,659 146 20,794 55.1

80 and over............ 1,761 44 655 15 1,047 59.5 3,280 9 234 4 3,033 92.5

1990

55 to 64............... 39,380 1,257 33,412 627 4,083 10.4 36,428 72 27,982 139 8,234 22.6

65 and over............ 28,718 646 19,114 335 8,623 30.0 34,477 105 12,794 115 21,463 62.3

2000

55 to 64............... 4,485 186 3,928 53 318 7.1 4,169 6 3,467 18 678 16.3

65 and over............ 4,112 113 3,002 37 960 23.3 4,592 11 2,246 16 2,319 50.5

India

1971

55 to 64............... 14,352 347 11,826 66 2,112 14.7 12,841 58 5,966 64 6,753 52.6

65 and over............ 9,383 227 6,621 44 2,492 26.6 8,929 32 2,221 29 6,647 74.4

1981

55 to 64............... 17,888 368 15,362 70 2,088 11.7 16,698 60 9,117 82 7,439 44.5

65 and over............ 12,625 254 9,375 48 2,948 23.3 12,377 50 3,580 42 8,706 70.3

1991

55 to 64............... 22,843 516 20,180 67 2,079 9.1 21,372 143 13,726 96 7,407 34.7

65 and over............ 17,444 724 13,449 57 3,214 18.4 16,473 292 6,265 60 9,856 59.8

75 and over............ 5,418 452 3,634 22 1,309 24.2 5,091 209 1,407 17 3,457 67.9

2001

55 to 64............... 27,169 454 24,484 89 2,142 7.9 28,001 250 18,929 161 8,661 30.9

65 and over............ 24,182 707 19,073 80 4,322 17.9 24,924 433 10,268 111 14,111 56.6

75 and over............ 7,182 320 5,013 25 1,824 25.4 7,408 202 2,258 29 4,919 66.4

Indonesia

1971

55 to 64............... 2,208 35 1,950 28 195 8.8 2,356 20 933 88 1,315 55.8

65 and over............ 1,440 20 1,128 23 269 18.7 1,529 13 355 45 1,115 73.0

75 and over............ 380 6 269 6 100 26.2 406 4 69 10 324 79.7

1980

55 to 64............... 3,280 24 3,016 49 191 5.8 3,339 33 1,618 211 1,477 44.2

65 and over............ 2,189 20 1,788 41 340 15.5 2,581 27 658 133 1,764 68.3

75 and over............ 688 7 508 14 160 23.2 837 9 144 35 648 77.4

1990

55 to 64............... 4,541 114 4,088 66 273 6.0 4,817 54 2,656 251 1,856 38.5

65 and over............ 3,143 119 2,518 56 449 14.3 3,608 71 1,021 154 2,362 65.5

75 and over............ 868 47 607 20 194 22.3 1,105 31 194 37 842 76.2

2000

55 to 64............... 5,480 63 5,055 62 300 5.5 5,519 104 3,404 188 1,823 33.0

65 and over............ 4,292 147 3,500 56 589 13.7 4,827 209 1,661 137 2,820 58.4

75 and over............ 1,258 103 901 19 234 18.6 1,459 126 340 35 959 65.7

Israel

1972

55 to 64............... 127 4 117 2 5 3.9 134 3 94 4 33 24.5

65 and over............ 111 3 89 1 18 16.0 114 3 42 2 67 58.6

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 157

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Asia—Con.

Israel—Con.

1983

55 to 64............... 141 4 129 3 4 3.1 163 4 120 6 34 21.0

65 and over............ 169 4 137 3 25 14.6 192 5 79 5 102 53.3

75 and over............ 60 1 43 1 15 24.3 67 2 16 2 48 71.2

1995

55 to 64............... 176 5 158 9 5 2.8 202 7 143 16 35 17.4

65 and over............ 236 6 186 7 37 15.7 311 8 125 12 165 53.1

75 and over............ 94 3 65 2 24 26.1 126 4 29 3 91 71.9

Japan

1970

55 to 64............... 3,773 43 3,478 53 199 5.3 4,344 78 2,722 129 1,414 32.6

65 and over............ 3,227 32 2,443 40 712 22.1 4,108 49 1,282 73 2,704 65.8

75 and over............ 877 8 530 9 329 37.6 1,361 14 186 19 1,142 83.9

1985

55 to 64............... 5,785 109 5,365 120 191 3.3 6,609 263 4,882 283 1,182 17.9

65 and over............ 5,096 47 4,180 71 797 15.6 7,352 124 2,695 186 4,347 59.1

75 and over............ 1,814 13 1,279 21 501 27.6 2,888 32 538 52 2,265 78.4

1990

55 to 64............... 6,991 177 6,414 179 222 3.2 7,411 313 5,711 316 1,071 14.5

65 and over............ 5,964 64 4,988 88 823 13.8 8,811 204 3,570 264 4,773 54.2

75 and over............ 2,220 17 1,645 26 532 23.9 3,686 53 777 79 2,776 75.3

2000

55 to 64............... 7,922 401 6,944 353 224 2.8 8,354 343 6,589 492 930 11.1

65 and over............ 9,080 161 7,662 202 1,056 11.6 12,583 420 5,818 447 5,898 46.9

75 and over............ 3,134 32 2,426 42 635 20.2 5,682 145 1,465 161 3,911 68.8

Malaysia

1970

55 to 64............... 252 10 215 6 21 8.3 228 4 123 7 93 40.9

65 and over............ 164 9 120 6 29 17.7 152 4 43 6 100 65.4

1980

55 to 64............... 288 9 256 5 19 6.5 299 5 173 17 104 34.8

65 and over............ 234 9 178 7 40 17.2 239 5 71 18 146 60.8

1991

55 to 64............... 403 10 368 4 20 5.1 419 9 274 13 124 29.6

65 and over............ 305 6 246 5 49 15.9 351 5 127 14 205 58.4

75 and over............ 99 2 70 2 24 24.8 120 2 29 5 84 70.2

2000

55 to 64............... 594 16 547 4 28 4.7 573 15 404 12 142 24.8

65 and over............ 419 9 344 4 62 14.9 482 8 201 10 262 54.3

75 and over............ 128 2 94 1 30 23.5 162 2 45 4 111 68.7

Pakistan

1981

55 to 59............... 859 15 795 2 48 5.6 751 7 605 2 137 18.2

60 and over............ 3,314 86 2,832 7 388 11.7 2,420 64 1,200 7 1,149 47.5

1998

55 to 64............... 2,855 101 2,496 6 252 8.8 2,461 85 1,683 14 679 27.6

65 and over............ 2,390 109 1,804 6 471 19.7 1,978 116 849 9 1,004 50.8

75 and over............ 817 49 542 2 224 27.4 688 53 207 3 424 61.6

See footnotes at end of table.
158 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Asia—Con.

Philippines

1970

55 to 64............... 713 20 631 5 58 8.1 706 55 462 7 182 25.8

65 and over............ 504 13 381 3 107 21.1 525 38 208 3 276 52.6

1980

55 to 64............... 969 29 855 7 77 8.0 1,029 73 694 12 250 24.3

65 and over............ 793 25 616 5 146 18.5 838 70 367 7 395 47.1

75 and over............ 228 8 154 1 65 28.4 246 21 67 2 156 63.3

1990

55 to 64............... 1,252 39 1,116 11 87 6.9 1,313 88 893 18 315 24.0

65 and over............ 949 30 738 7 174 18.3 1,109 97 467 10 535 48.2

75 and over............ 307 11 209 2 86 28.0 379 38 104 3 234 61.8

2000

55 to 64............... 1,723 64 1,509 24 126 7.3 1,799 107 1,227 33 433 24.0

65 and over............ 1,300 41 996 13 251 19.3 1,610 115 674 17 805 50.0

75 and over............ 410 13 272 3 122 29.8 575 47 158 4 367 63.7

Singapore

1970

55 to 64............... 59 4 50 – 5 8.0 55 3 29 – 23 41.2

65 and over............ 31 2 22 – 7 21.5 39 2 9 – 28 71.4

75 and over............ 6 –3– 2 34.2 11 1 1 – 9 83.2

1980

55 to 64............... 67 3 59 1 4 5.6 64 2 39 1 22 34.8

65 and over............ 51 2 39 1 10 18.6 63 3 18 – 40 64.3

75 and over............ 12 1 8 – 4 30.3 19 1 3 – 15 78.6

1990

55 to 64............... 91 6 78 1 6 6.1 91 3 60 2 26 28.9

65 and over............ 73 4 54 1 15 20.2 89 3 30 1 55 61.8

70 and over............ 44 2 31 – 11 25.5 59 3 16 – 40 68.5

2000

55 to 64............... 115 7 102 3 3 2.9 120 8 86 5 21 17.8

65 and over............ 102 4 82 2 14 13.8 129 4 52 2 71 55.1

75 and over............ 32 1 23 – 8 23.9 48 1 11 – 35 73.7

South Korea

1975

55 to 64............... 784 1 729 3 51 6.5 893 1 468 4 420 47.1

65 and over............ 458 1 356 1 101 22.0 748 1 182 1 564 75.4

1980

55 to 64............... 895 2 835 3 55 6.2 1,052 1 566 5 480 45.6

65 and over............ 539 1 431 1 106 19.7 907 1 220 1 684 75.4

75 and over............ 117 – 74 – 42 36.2 284 – 33 – 250 88.2

1995

55 to 64............... 1,597 6 1,499 16 75 4.7 1,811 6 1,187 20 599 33.1

65 and over............ 974 2 815 4 154 15.8 1,665 3 441 6 1,215 73.0

75 and over............ 260 – 186 1 73 28.1 573 1 65 1 506 88.3

2000

55 to 64............... 1,795 12 1,669 39 76 4.2 1,961 12 1,359 40 550 28.0

65 and over............ 1,287 4 1,099 10 174 13.5 2,083 7 653 15 1,409 67.6

75 and over............ 345 1 257 2 86 24.8 732 2 95 3 632 86.3

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 159

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Asia—Con.

Sri Lanka

1971

55 to 64............... 343 25 293 3 22 6.4 275 12 178 2 83 30.1

65 and over............ 292 22 223 2 46 15.6 246 11 100 1 134 54.4

1981

55 to 64............... 405 26 355 3 22 5.3 359 15 244 2 98 27.3

65 and over............ 339 23 265 2 49 14.4 305 15 136 1 153 50.1

2001

55 to 64............... 557 33 502 6 15 2.8 590 31 437 8 115 19.4

65 and over............ 488 32 408 4 45 9.1 561 21 321 4 214 38.2

75 and over............ 163 11 127 1 23 14.2 190 7 93 1 89 46.9

Thailand

1970

55 to 64............... 688 25 595 14 54 7.9 722 16 434 29 243 33.7

65 and over............ 461 24 334 11 92 19.9 584 12 203 16 354 60.6

1980

55 to 64............... 932 15 822 17 77 8.3 998 26 613 38 321 32.1

65 and over............ 672 10 502 14 145 21.6 853 17 297 21 518 60.7

70 and over............ 386 6 268 9 104 26.9 528 10 146 11 360 68.2

1990

55 to 64............... 1,628 53 1,418 29 128 7.9 1,723 56 1,143 58 466 27.0

65 and over............ 1,131 45 836 20 231 20.4 1,363 30 537 32 765 56.1

70 and over............ 667 27 460 12 167 25.1 860 18 275 17 550 63.9

2000

55 to 64............... 1,981 48 1,769 31 133 6.7 2,211 106 1,530 63 512 23.2

65 and over............ 1,628 27 1,265 21 316 19.4 2,096 64 962 37 1,033 49.3

75 and over............ 477 7 320 6 145 30.4 696 17 218 8 452 65.0

Turkey

1970

55 to 64............... 952 17 865 9 60 6.3 947 12 638 13 284 30.0

65 and over............ 685 12 549 6 118 17.2 818 12 308 11 487 59.5

1980

55 to 64............... 967 22 894 10 42 4.3 976 13 693 13 257 26.3

65 and over............ 955 20 753 9 173 18.1 1,158 15 482 13 648 56.0

1990

55 to 64............... 1,761 34 1,650 17 59 3.4 1,793 22 1,336 22 414 23.1

65 and over............ 1,091 21 887 10 174 15.9 1,326 18 569 14 725 54.6

2000

55 to 64............... 1,879 27 1,773 23 57 3.0 2,006 25 1,498 35 448 22.3

65 and over............ 1,748 22 1,479 17 230 13.2 2,109 25 993 28 1,063 50.4

75 and over............ 436 7 319 4 107 24.5 604 8 171 7 417 69.1

Latin America/

Caribbean

Argentina

1970

55 to 64............... 939 119 750 20 50 5.3 993 125 615 26 227 22.8

65 and over............ 724 88 493 14 130 17.9 877 111 308 12 446 50.8

75 and over............ 208 24 117 3 64 30.8 292 37 64 2 189 64.7

See footnotes at end of table.
160 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Latin America/

Caribbean—Con.

Argentina—Con.

1980

55 to 64............... 1,091 116 896 28 50 4.6 1,192 134 756 39 263 22.0

65 and over............ 988 107 706 19 155 15.7 1,303 160 453 20 669 51.4

70 and over............ 590 64 395 10 120 20.4 826 103 223 9 491 59.4

1991

55 to 64............... 1,129 121 889 62 57 5.1 1,320 127 808 89 296 22.4

65 and over............ 1,139 110 812 41 175 15.4 1,628 176 523 48 881 54.1

75 and over............ 387 37 243 11 96 24.7 648 75 111 11 451 69.6

2001

55 to 64............... 1,315 120 1,051 93 51 3.9 1,473 142 933 143 255 17.3

65 and over............ 1,457 129 1,050 74 205 14.0 2,131 215 741 100 1,074 50.4

75 and over............ 535 45 349 22 119 22.3 946 101 193 30 623 65.8

Brazil

1970

55 to 64............... 2,081 118 1,758 71 134 6.4 2,043 176 1,125 121 622 30.4

65 and over............ 1,397 73 1,015 50 258 18.5 1,544 140 441 70 893 57.8

1980

55 to 64............... 2,710 143 2,356 78 132 4.9 2,779 232 1,673 157 716 25.8

65 and over............ 2,200 117 1,669 66 348 15.8 2,470 235 793 85 1,356 54.9

1991

55 to 64............... 3,664 196 3,194 118 156 4.3 4,050 321 2,467 286 975 24.1

65 and over............ 3,138 164 2,434 100 440 14.0 3,738 366 1,296 167 1,909 51.1

70 and over............ 996 54 679 29 233 23.4 1,323 144 253 41 885 66.9

2000

55 to 64............... 4,535 206 3,964 196 169 3.7 4,859 326 3,118 364 1,051 21.6

65 and over............ 4,168 166 3,268 163 571 13.7 5,109 373 1,918 229 2,589 50.7

70 and over............ 1,421 55 996 50 319 22.4 1,906 154 428 62 1,262 66.2

Chile

1971

55 to 64............... 248 25 197 6 19 7.8 276 37 152 13 74 26.8

65 and over............ 201 19 136 5 41 20.5 251 38 75 7 131 52.4

75 and over............ 61 5 35 1 19 30.9 86 13 15 1 56 65.1

1982

55 to 64............... 303 31 242 10 20 6.5 344 43 203 21 77 22.3

65 and over............ 288 29 198 9 52 18.2 372 53 126 14 179 48.1

75 and over............ 93 9 55 2 26 28.1 137 21 29 3 84 61.2

1992

55 to 64............... 406 42 323 21 21 5.1 462 58 281 35 88 19.1

65 and over............ 373 38 258 15 62 16.7 504 64 181 23 236 46.8

75 and over............ 132 12 81 5 34 25.7 208 27 49 7 125 60.2

Colombia

1973

55 to 64............... 396 43 317 9 27 6.8 404 69 207 16 111 27.5

65 and over............ 299 32 208 7 53 17.7 342 61 106 8 167 48.8

1985

55 to 59............... 346 27 290 14 14 4.2 352 41 204 33 74 21.1

60 and over............ 784 66 587 31 101 12.9 832 107 309 51 364 43.8

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 161

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Latin America/

Caribbean—Con.

Colombia—Con.

1993

55 to 64............... 778 69 626 42 41 5.2 827 99 449 89 190 23.0

65 and over............ 676 57 479 34 106 15.7 751 95 245 48 363 48.3

75 and over............ 231 19 146 10 56 24.1 274 36 58 12 168 61.3

Costa Rica

1973

55 to 64............... 39 4 32 1 2 4.9 39 6 23 3 7 18.1

65 and over............ 33 4 23 1 5 15.8 33 6 12 1 14 40.7

75 and over............ 11 1 6 – 3 26.4 12 2 3 – 6 53.7

1984

55 to 64............... 55 5 45 2 2 3.5 56 9 34 5 9 15.2

65 and over............ 52 5 36 3 8 14.5 56 10 21 3 22 39.2

2000

55 to 64............... 95 9 76 7 2 2.6 98 13 59 13 13 12.9

65 and over............ 101 10 69 8 13 13.3 113 17 43 10 43 38.3

75 and over............ 38 4 23 3 9 22.3 46 7 11 3 24 53.1

Guatemala

1973

55 to 64............... 100 8 83 1 8 7.9 94 13 53 2 26 27.9

65 and over............ 74 7 52 1 15 20.1 75 12 25 1 37 50.0

75 and over............ 24 2 14 – 7 29.7 25 4 6 – 15 61.2

1981

55 to 64............... 126 6 109 2 9 7.2 117 8 70 7 32 27.1

65 and over............ 93 4 70 2 17 18.6 94 8 33 4 49 51.9

75 and over............ 32 1 21 1 9 27.7 34 3 8 1 22 64.6

1990

55 to 64............... 195 8 172 5 10 5.1 199 8 118 17 56 28.2

65 and over............ 146 3 116 3 23 16.0 159 4 61 10 84 52.8

Jamaica

1970

55 to 64............... 54 16 34 1 2 4.1 50 14 27 1 8 16.1

65 and over............ 44 11 26 1 5 11.5 55 20 16 1 18 32.8

1982

55 to 64............... 50 15 31 2 2 4.1 55 17 28 1 8 14.5

65 and over............ 61 15 37 2 8 12.7 73 25 24 1 23 32.0

1991

55 to 64............... 58 20 33 3 2 4.0 63 20 31 3 9 14.3

65 and over............ 75 17 44 3 11 14.6 92 27 29 2 33 35.7

2001

55 to 64............... 69 25 39 4 2 3.4 70 25 33 3 8 11.9

65 and over............ 89 20 51 4 13 15.2 106 29 35 3 39 36.9

75 and over............ 36 7 19 1 9 23.7 49 13 11 1 24 48.2

Mexico

1970

55 to 64............... 953 56 824 20 54 5.6 977 81 623 43 229 23.5

65 and over............ 859 82 645 21 111 12.9 932 121 392 37 383 41.1

75 and over............ 272 37 177 7 50 18.5 329 55 102 12 159 48.5

See footnotes at end of table.

14

U.S. Census Bureau
162 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-6.

Marital Status of the Older Population by Sex, Country, and Age: Selected Years 1969 to

2007—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Country, year, and age

Male Female

Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed Total Single Married1

Separated/

divorced Widowed

Percent

widowed

Latin America/

Caribbean—Con.

Mexico—Con.

1980

55 to 64............... 1,274 65 1,114 24 70 5.5 1,305 99 860 59 287 22.0

65 and over............ 1,203 62 937 24 179 14.9 1,353 118 618 40 578 42.7

1990

55 to 64............... 1,675 83 1,477 36 79 4.7 1,797 126 1,226 89 356 19.8

65 and over............ 1,556 77 1,207 38 234 15.0 1,766 139 796 64 767 43.4

2000

55 to 64............... 2,275 116 1,947 96 116 5.1 2,472 171 1,567 221 513 20.8

65 and over............ 2,197 102 1,617 86 392 17.9 2,531 171 986 139 1,236 48.8

75 and over............ 883 38 537 30 278 31.5 999 70 247 38 644 64.4

Peru

1972

55 to 64............... 281 21 227 6 27 9.5 289 32 169 9 78 26.9

65 and over............ 236 19 161 4 52 22.0 279 36 99 5 139 49.9

75 and over............ 148 13 95 2 38 26.0 182 25 54 3 100 55.1

1981

55 to 64............... 368 23 307 8 30 8.1 364 30 233 15 86 23.7

65 and over............ 323 20 231 6 66 20.4 356 30 140 9 177 49.6

1993

55 to 64............... 540 36 456 14 34 6.4 543 49 366 26 102 18.9

65 and over............ 481 31 359 10 81 16.8 531 49 241 17 225 42.3

Uruguay

1975

55 to 64............... 125 18 97 5 5 4.1 132 18 80 8 28 20.8

65 and over............ 118 15 81 5 18 14.8 151 23 48 5 75 49.5

75 and over............ 38 5 22 1 10 25.9 59 10 11 2 37 62.1

1985

55 to 64............... 141 18 110 8 5 3.6 156 16 96 12 32 20.3

65 and over............ 138 16 97 6 19 13.6 191 25 61 9 96 50.4

75 and over............ 49 5 31 2 11 22.9 79 11 14 2 51 64.2

1996

55 to 64............... 137 16 106 11 5 3.3 155 14 97 18 27 17.5

65 and over............ 166 19 117 9 21 12.6 239 27 82 15 115 48.0

75 and over............ 60 6 38 3 13 21.0 104 13 21 4 66 63.1

– Represents or rounds to zero.

1 Data for ‘‘Married’’ for Latin American/Caribbean countries generally include people living in consensual unions. 2 For Denmark 2000 and 2007, ‘‘married’’ includes people who were separated. 3 Data for the Czech Republic prior to 1991 refer to the former Czechoslovakia. 4 Data for China 2000 are from a 9.5 percent sample of census returns and are not weighted to the national total.

Sources: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, various issues of the Demographic Yearbook; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

data files; and country sources.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 163

Table B-7.

Dependency Ratios by Country: 2000, 2020, and 2040

Country

Total1 Youth2 Older

3

2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

Western Europe

Austria ........................ . 62 64 92 37 30 34 25 34 57

Belgium ........................ 68 71 88 39 35 37 28 36 51

Denmark ....................... 63 73 88 39 39 41 24 35 47

France ......................... 71 78 88 44 43 41 27 36 47

Germany ...................... . 60 67 92 34 29 34 26 38 58

Greece......................... 64 67 86 35 30 31 29 36 54

Italy ........................... 60 66 95 31 28 31 29 38 63

Norway ........................ 70 71 88 44 39 40 26 33 47

Sweden ........................ 71 76 86 41 37 38 29 39 48

United Kingdom ................. 69 67 82 43 35 36 26 32 46

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria ........................ 65 68 81 37 31 30 27 36 51

Czech Republic.................. 59 64 80 37 29 28 22 35 51

Hungary........................ 61 64 76 38 32 31 24 32 45

Poland ......................... 67 61 74 46 31 29 20 30 45

Russia ........................ . 63 60 71 42 34 32 20 26 39

Ukraine ........................ 65 58 71 41 30 29 23 28 43

Northern America/Oceania

Australia ....................... 67 70 82 46 40 39 21 30 43

Canada ........................ 63 66 81 42 36 37 21 30 44

New Zealand................... . 69 66 76 49 41 39 19 25 38

United States .................. . 69 75 86 48 46 48 21 28 38

Africa

Egypt .......................... 98 74 69 90 62 49 8 12 20

Kenya ......................... 135 106 63 129 99 53 6 7 10

Malawi ........................ . 152 138 104 146 132 99 7 7 6

Morocco........................ 103 69 68 93 58 47 9 11 21

South Africa..................... 95 70 64 86 57 47 9 13 16

Tunisia........................ . 87 55 66 75 42 35 11 13 30

Uganda ........................ 179 166 148 173 161 143 7 5 5

Zimbabwe ...................... 133 98 172 125 91 64 8 8 9

Asia

Bangladesh .................... . 114 85 75 107 77 62 7 9 14

China ......................... . 68 58 75 56 39 36 12 19 40

India........................... 93 75 72 85 63 49 9 13 23

Indonesia....................... 84 66 68 75 54 43 9 13 25

Israel ......................... . 86 76 74 67 53 44 18 22 30

Japan.......................... 61 80 97 33 29 29 28 51 68

Malaysia ....................... 96 79 78 88 66 57 8 12 21

Pakistan........................ 128 80 65 119 72 50 9 9 14

Philippines...................... 106 80 71 98 70 54 8 10 17

Singapore ...................... 46 46 90 35 24 27 10 22 63

South Korea ................... . 57 51 84 46 28 31 11 22 53

Sri Lanka...................... . 74 67 73 62 48 40 12 19 33

Thailand........................ 65 58 75 55 39 37 11 19 38

Turkey ........................ . 83 58 66 72 44 37 11 14 29

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina....................... 86 71 68 67 49 39 19 22 29

Brazil .......................... 79 59 67 70 44 38 9 15 29

Chile ......................... . 77 64 72 64 44 39 13 20 33

Colombia ...................... . 86 71 75 77 57 49 9 14 26

Costa Rica ..................... 90 64 68 80 50 40 10 14 27

Guatemala...................... 141 94 68 133 84 56 8 10 13

Jamaica........................ 113 78 65 98 64 46 15 15 19

Mexico ........................ . 95 71 75 85 57 48 10 14 27

Peru ........................... 93 67 66 84 55 43 9 13 23

Uruguay........................ 82 69 73 58 45 39 24 25 34

1 Total dependency ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 years and 65 years and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64. Youth and older ratios may not sum to total

ratio due to rounding. 2 Youth dependency ratio is the number of people aged 0 to 19 per 100 people aged 20 to 64. 3 Older dependency ratio is the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people aged 20 to 64.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed on January 6, 2008.
164 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to 2006

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Western Europe

Austria

1971 .... ................ 97.1 95.8 92.7 83.7 44.9 8.0 52.8 53.7 48.5 35.8 13.2 3.2

1981 .... ................ 96.5 96.3 91.5 77.3 23.3 3.1 62.2 57.3 53.5 32.4 9.5 1.8

1991 .... ................ 94.9 95.1 89.8 63.1 12.3 1.7 69.9 65.1 56.3 23.1 4.9 0.7

1998 .... ................ 94.3 93.6 88.4 63.2 13.2 4.4 76.9 72.6 63.6 24.8 8.4 1.9

2006 .... ................ 94.4 93.1 87.6 69.1 21.9 5.5 81.7 82.6 75.0 41.9 10.1 2.2

Belgium

1970 .... ................ 96.2 92.2 89.2 82.3 63.8 6.8 39.1 30.8 27.6 20.0 7.6 2.2

1977 .... ................ 96.8 92.4 87.7 79.2 42.1 4.2 51.1 33.3 27.3 18.6 5.8 1.2

1981 .... ................ 94.5 90.8 85.7 70.7 32.3 3.3 60.1 38.2 30.7 17.3 5.7 1.0

1997 .... ................ 94.4 90.5 81.6 49.2 18.4 1.9 77.0 59.5 44.2 21.8 4.6 0.7

2006 .... ................ 93.6 91.4 85.2 58.3 22.6 2.7 82.0 72.8 61.1 36.2 10.3 1.0

Denmark

1970 .... ................ 93.4 96.3 94.8 91.1 81.3 23.5 55.5 54.4 49.5 39.8 24.9 4.6

1981 .... ................ 94.4 93.5 91.4 87.8 60.0 23.2 84.2 76.1 67.4 55.8 31.5 6.3

1993 .... ................ 93.8 93.9 90.2 80.6 45.5 10.1 87.7 87.7 79.4 63.6 27.1 3.4

2006 .... ................ 93.1 92.2 89.2 85.3 46.7 1

20.7 85.6 87.2 83.4 77.0 28.2 18.4

France

1975 ... ................. 96.2 95.4 92.1 81.8 54.6 10.7 55.0 49.4 48.2 42.1 27.9 5.0

1984 .... ................ 95.4 95.0 90.8 70.0 29.9 4.3 71.3 61.0 54.1 41.4 18.0 2.1

1996 .... ................ 95.8 95.0 92.6 70.4 16.4 2.3 81.3 80.9 71.5 51.7 15.2 2.0

2005 .... ................ 94.6 94.1 90.3 62.5 15.4 1.6 80.8 83.2 77.3 53.4 13.4 0.8

Germany2

1970 .... ................ 96.7 95.9 93.2 86.8 68.8 16.0 47.4 48.3 42.8 34.5 17.7 5.7

1980 .... ................ 96.1 96.8 93.3 82.3 44.2 7.4 57.1 52.2 47.2 38.7 13.0 3.0

1988 .... ................ 94.1 96.4 93.2 79.8 34.5 4.9 64.6 60.9 53.7 41.1 11.1 1.8

1996 .... ................ 92.9 94.5 90.4 73.9 28.7 4.4 74.8 74.7 67.4 50.5 11.3 1.6

2006 .... ................ 93.8 94.3 91.2 82.0 42.3 5.0 79.7 83.5 78.7 65.6 24.4 2.2

Greece

1971 .... ................ 94.2 93.4 89.5 82.3 65.9 31.9 32.2 30.4 26.9 22.3 17.2 6.7

1981 .... ................ 96.8 95.1 90.0 81.1 61.7 26.2 33.4 28.9 25.8 20.0 13.4 5.0

1987 .... ................ 90.1 98.0 84.2 74.3 53.5 14.0 52.2 43.9 37.2 29.3 22.0 5.1

1997 .... ................ 96.2 95.2 89.2 75.0 47.8 10.7 64.4 49.9 39.3 30.7 20.3 3.4

2006 .... ................ 95.4 95.6 89.4 74.0 45.2 7.4 74.2 64.0 51.3 33.5 21.8 2.1

Italy

1971 .... ................ 95.5 92.1 87.2 75.0 40.6 13.4 31.8 29.7 26.3 16.9 9.9 3.2

1981 .... ................ 96.2 93.2 85.7 65.1 29.1 6.9 49.8 36.2 30.2 16.9 8.0 1.5

1989 .... ................ 95.6 95.6 87.5 67.8 35.2 7.9 59.5 44.7 34.1 20.2 9.8 2.2

1996 .... ................ 91.2 93.1 79.3 58.9 30.6 6.0 59.8 49.0 37.1 21.5 8.2 1.8

2006 .... ................ 91.2 94.0 89.0 58.0 28.9 6.1 67.0 62.3 54.0 32.8 10.2 1.2

Norway

1970 .... ................ 94.3 94.1 91.8 87.7 79.0 25.7 29.9 34.8 35.1 32.0 24.5 5.6

1980 .... ................ 94.6 94.0 90.9 88.7 74.1 3

34.3 67.1 76.0 67.5 58.1 39.8 313.0

1990 .... ................ 92.4 93.9 89.2 82.0 64.2 3

21.2 79.1 83.5 74.5 62.0 46.5 312.0

2000 .... ................ 91.7 91.7 89.9 84.8 60.6 3

13.5 83.6 86.0 80.8 71.8 48.4 38.5

2006 ... ................. 91.2 90.7 87.7 82.9 63.0 3

17.8 83.5 84.1 81.5 71.2 51.2 310.6

Sweden

1970 .... ................ 90.4 93.2 92.3 88.9 76.6 16.4 57.1 62.8 57.8 48.1 30.6 4.1

1980 .... ................ 90.6 92.0 89.8 84.4 65.9 8.1 77.0 82.9 77.8 66.4 41.4 2.6

1990 .... ................ 89.6 91.6 89.5 84.1 63.9 10.6 87.6 89.8 85.8 76.8 53.1 3.7

2000 .... ................ 89.4 90.6 89.9 83.8 56.2 (NA) 84.0 87.2 85.7 79.4 48.2 (NA)

2006 .... ................ 92.3 90.9 89.8 84.9 66.2 (NA) 85.1 87.2 85.4 80.0 58.3 (NA)

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 165

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to

2006—Con.

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Western Europe—Con.

United Kingdom4

1971 .... ................ 98.0 98.1 97.1 95.1 86.4 19.4 50.4 61.3 58.9 50.7 27.8 6.4

1981 .... ................ 97.5 97.3 95.7 91.5 74.6 10.7 59.4 68.5 63.5 52.0 22.5 3.7

1993 .... ................ 94.5 92.8 88.1 75.7 52.2 7.4 73.5 77.9 70.0 54.5 24.7 3.5

2000 .... ................ 5

88.6 (NA) 668.9 (NA) (NA) 7.4 573.5 (NA) 764.0 (NA) (NA) 88.4

2006 .......... ......... . 5

88.5 (NA) 672.3 (NA) (NA) 9.7 574.2 (NA) 768.6 (NA) (NA) 811.4

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria

1975 .... ................ 96.8 95.7 92.0 86.5 33.6 10.3 92.7 86.4 75.4 26.1 8.2 1.7

1985 .... ................ 96.4 94.6 88.1 80.9 39.2 15.2 95.3 91.0 83.6 32.0 16.5 4.3

2006 .... ................ 86.7 84.1 79.2 66.1 38.6 4.6 79.2 82.8 76.5 53.4 11.7 1.5

Czech Republic9

1970 .... ................ 98.3 96.0 93.2 85.0 33.3 14.6 79.7 77.3 70.1 36.5 18.2 5.2

1980 .... ................ 98.2 96.0 92.7 84.2 46.3 19.5 91.8 88.1 79.9 40.8 21.5 6.5

1991 .... ................ 97.9 95.5 91.5 80.0 28.4 11.6 95.1 93.4 85.7 31.1 16.2 4.9

1999 .... ................ 96.5 94.9 90.1 77.1 27.5 7.2 79.9 90.8 81.5 33.2 12.9 2.7

2006 .... ................ 95.8 94.6 90.6 83.1 36.1 6.6 77.3 91.8 88.2 51.2 13.1 2.5

Hungary

1970 .... ................ 98.1 95.4 91.8 84.4 43.7 16.7 68.6 64.0 56.6 29.2 17.1 5.8

1980 .... ................ 97.7 92.9 86.2 72.2 13.2 4.0 79.2 77.5 67.4 18.8 8.7 2.9

1996 .... ................ 90.0 83.1 70.0 46.1 9.2 3

4.3 69.8 76.1 55.4 15.5 6.0 32.1

2006 .......... .......... 90.7 82.5 74.4 61.3 19.6 3

4.3 71.7 78.9 71.7 44.1 9.4 31.6

Poland

1970 .......... .......... 96.6 95.1 94.0 90.9 83.0 56.4 78.3 79.2 75.9 68.1 51.1 33.0

1978 .... ................ 96.1 92.1 87.1 81.5 62.4 34.9 79.2 78.5 71.6 57.9 37.4 19.4

1988 .... ................ 95.1 89.6 82.4 72.0 53.6 32.5 78.5 81.2 71.1 50.6 34.3 19.0

1996 .... ................ 92.9 85.1 76.8 55.2 33.4 15.3 79.5 79.1 63.1 35.0 19.2 8.5

2006 .... ................ 92.5 84.7 75.7 51.6 26.8 8.2 79.3 77.9 59.8 25.3 12.4 3.3

Russia

1989 .... ................ 97.3 95.8 91.7 79.3 35.4 14.2 93.8 93.7 83.8 34.8 20.4 6.4

1992 .... ................ 5

92.1 (NA) 93.9 80.5 38.1 13.3 588.9 (NA) 83.6 43.0 21.0 5.7

1999 .... ................ 91.0 88.6 85.3 65.2 29.2 6.4 84.4 86.8 78.9 33.7 16.0 2.5

2006 .... ................ 93.2 89.0 84.8 70.2 39.7 9.4 87.5 88.2 80.6 47.0 23.6 4.6

Ukraine

1989 .... ................ 97.3 95.6 89.9 78.2 32.0 10.9 93.4 93.3 86.0 29.5 15.3 4.5

1999 .... ................ 89.2 86.3 76.4 69.7 28.3 3

9.8 83.3 84.3 70.1 33.4 16.7 36.0

2005 .......... .......... 88.5 84.3 79.1 67.6 32.2 1022.7 79.6 81.1 72.9 37.6 24.7 1017.3

Northern America/

Oceania

Australia

1971 .... ................ 94.8 1193.0 (NA) 88.4 75.6 22.2 41.5 1140.0 (NA) 28.3 16.0 4.2

1981 .... ................ 94.8 92.5 89.4 81.3 53.1 12.3 56.2 56.5 46.3 32.8 15.5 4.9

1991 .... ................ 94.3 1189.6 (NA) 73.8 50.0 8.9 68.5 1162.8 (NA) 36.0 15.2 2.5

1999 .... ................ 91.8 89.5 85.1 72.5 46.7 9.6 69.5 73.8 65.0 44.6 18.3 3.1

2006 .... ................ 89.9 89.2 86.1 75.7 56.4 12.1 73.0 78.3 73.4 57.9 33.5 4.3

Canada

1971 .... ................ 92.7 91.3 89.1 84.9 74.1 23.6 44.2 45.4 43.3 38.7 29.1 8.3

1981 .... ................ 95.3 93.6 90.9 84.4 68.8 17.3 65.2 59.6 52.1 41.9 28.3 6.0

1991 .... ................ 94.2 93.1 89.5 78.3 54.1 14.4 79.1 76.3 66.4 49.9 28.1 5.7

2001 .... ................ 92.1 91.1 86.4 72.2 46.5 9.4 80.4 79.8 72.7 53.3 27.4 3.4

2006 .... ................ 92.0 90.8 87.8 76.1 53.3 12.1 81.8 82.6 78.1 62.3 37.1 5.2

See footnotes at end of table.
166 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to

2006—Con.

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Northern America/

Oceania—Con.

New Zealand

1971 .... ................ 98.4 98.0 96.3 92.1 69.2 21.3 33.2 40.0 35.2 27.5 15.5 3.5

1981 .... ................ 96.0 95.8 94.1 87.5 45.7 10.9 45.3 52.5 43.7 30.9 11.7 1.9

1992 .... ................ 93.4 94.2 89.5 80.0 33.5 8.8 69.2 79.7 65.7 49.9 15.7 2.9

1999 .... ................ 89.0 90.7 88.4 81.2 57.4 10.4 71.1 79.9 73.6 60.1 32.5 3.9

2006 .... ................ 91.1 92.6 91.6 87.2 73.1 16.8 74.3 81.9 80.0 71.7 50.0 8.0

United States

1970 .... ................ 94.3 93.5 91.4 86.8 73.0 24.8 47.5 53.0 52.0 47.4 36.1 10.0

1980 .... ................ 93.4 92.0 88.5 80.6 60.4 19.3 64.8 61.5 56.3 48.4 34.0 8.2

1991 .... ................ 93.9 92.2 88.4 79.0 54.8 15.8 74.9 75.4 67.8 55.7 35.1 8.6

2000 .... ................ 93.0 90.1 86.8 77.1 54.8 17.5 76.8 79.1 74.1 61.2 40.1 9.4

2006 .... ................ 88.6 1185.7 (NA) 76.3 57.5 19.7 75.2 1164.7 (NA) 64.7 45.4 10.7

Africa

Egypt

1976 .... ................ 97.6 99.0 98.0 96.0 77.9 40.9 7.5 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.0

1986 .... ................ 96.2 94.2 91.3 88.8 68.3 25.5 13.2 6.0 4.3 3.4 2.0 0.7

1995 .... ................ 1284.6 1398.1 7

97.9 (NA) 76.4 36.5 1228.8 1325.5 716.0 (NA) 6.6 2.1

1999 ................... . 1290.2 1398.1 7

97.9 (NA) 63.5 32.1 1226.2 1322.3 714.2 (NA) 5.6 2.3

Malawi

1977 .................... 95.3 1196.1 (NA) 1494.4 (NA) 83.6 67.4 1172.6 (NA) 1469.9 (NA) 55.3

1987 ... ................. 97.5 98.2 96.8 94.3 94.2 85.3 89.9 90.5 89.4 89.8 84.3 71.9

1998 .... ................ 96.2 98.3 98.1 97.9 97.2 93.8 84.5 89.9 90.5 90.9 90.0 84.0

Morocco

1971 .... ................ 95.8 94.5 91.6 88.9 63.3 33.5 11.3 15.0 18.9 22.5 7.7 3.8

1982 .... ................ 97.1 96.6 93.3 89.5 68.9 42.1 17.9 14.1 14.6 14.6 11.2 5.3

1990 .... ................ 94.3 1590.3 (NA) (NA) (NA) 8

38.1 32.5 1517.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) 88.9

1999 ... ................. 95.0 1590.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) 8

43.7 35.4 1530.1 (NA) (NA) (NA) 813.0

2005 .... ................ 94.6 1587.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) 8

40.0 34.1 1530.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) 812.5

South Africa

1970 .... ................ 97.3 1196.6 (NA) 1485.4 (NA) 44.4 42.3 1135.7 (NA) 1422.5 (NA) 5.6

1980 ... ................ . 1689.7 (NA) (NA) 1477.3 (NA) 34.7 1645.3 (NA) (NA) 1424.1 (NA) 5.9

1991 ... ................ . 1690.8 (NA) (NA) 1470.5 (NA) 21.3 1660.2 (NA) (NA) 1428.5 (NA) 5.2

2003 ... ................. 82.9 80.8 73.7 63.5 40.6 25.6 65.4 62.6 50.9 38.4 15.2 9.6

Tunisia

1975 .... ................ 97.9 97.3 94.2 86.0 66.5 38.0 16.8 14.1 13.0 11.3 8.6 4.8

1984 .... ................ 96.9 96.2 92.8 82.1 59.2 38.5 23.0 12.9 11.6 9.8 4.4 3.5

1994 .... ................ 94.3 95.6 90.1 78.3 54.6 31.5 26.8 17.6 12.6 9.6 7.3 3.3

1997 .... ................ 95.4 95.6 90.4 78.4 54.1 34.0 29.2 21.6 14.4 12.2 7.7 3.5

Uganda

1991 .... ................ 94.8 95.5 94.8 93.3 89.6 68.9 71.4 74.2 73.3 72.0 64.8 42.6

2003 .... ................ (NA) 97.1 94.6 93.9 91.4 72.9 (NA) 93.5 92.2 87.1 80.3 53.7

Zimbabwe

1969 .... ................ 69.8 61.3 52.5 49.1 43.1 24.9 11.8 10.2 9.8 9.2 9.0 2.7

1982 .... ................ 93.8 93.9 92.5 90.4 (NA) 8

69.1 50.3 52.4 50.6 50.7 (NA) 831.5

1992 .... ................ 96.0 95.1 92.2 88.8 77.5 52.0 51.3 54.0 49.7 47.1 40.0 21.7

1999 .... ................ 95.1 95.6 94.2 87.8 84.1 74.1 73.6 83.0 84.4 78.8 77.8 60.7

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 167

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to

2006—Con.

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Asia

Bangladesh

1974 .... ................ 97.9 1198.3 (NA) 1495.2 (NA) 84.2 3.0 113.6 (NA) 144.0 (NA) 3.3

1981 .......... .......... 92.4 93.6 90.6 90.7 84.7 68.7 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.5 3.6

1986 .... ................ 99.4 99.7 99.3 98.0 93.4 70.4 10.6 10.3 10.8 9.8 9.0 10.9

2003 .... ................ 99.2 99.5 99.2 97.3 87.8 66.1 27.3 22.6 19.9 17.1 13.4 8.7

China

1982 .... ................ 98.7 97.5 91.4 83.0 63.7 30.1 87.8 70.6 50.9 32.9 16.9 4.7

1990 .... ................ 98.9 97.9 93.5 83.9 63.7 33.6 90.8 81.1 62.0 45.1 27.4 8.4

2000 .... ................ 95.0 94.2 89.3 79.6 60.2 33.7 84.4 78.5 66.8 54.5 38.9 17.2

India

1971 .... ................ 1296.0 1397.1 7

94.0 (NA) (NA) 873.8 1220.8 1322.4 719.4 (NA) (NA) 810.5

1981 .... ............... . 1297.8 1398.1 7

93.8 (NA) (NA) 865.5 1236.9 1337.0 730.3 (NA) (NA) 814.3

1991 .... ............... . 1294.6 1396.9 7

92.6 (NA) 1771.4 1842.3 1238.7 1341.5 735.5 (NA) 1720.8 188.2

2001 .... ................ 1293.3 1397.0 7

92.0 (NA) 1769.7 1845.4 1244.6 1347.3 740.9 (NA) 1726.3 1812.0

Indonesia

1971 .... ................ 94.2 93.4 90.6 86.0 79.3 62.9 39.9 45.4 43.5 40.5 35.2 24.5

1982 .... ................ 97.3 97.2 93.0 87.4 76.8 57.9 48.7 56.7 51.1 50.4 39.3 23.2

1992 .... ................ 96.8 97.6 93.8 89.6 79.7 56.8 55.4 60.5 57.7 52.2 42.7 25.1

1999 .... ................ 97.2 98.0 95.7 87.6 (NA) 8

66.5 57.7 62.2 60.0 54.3 (NA) 834.0

2005 .... ................ 98.5 98.6 97.0 91.2 (NA) 8

68.5 54.0 61.8 59.9 57.4 (NA) 836.6

Israel

1972 .... ................ 90.7 1192.7 (NA) 1486.3 (NA) 34.5 35.9 1133.8 (NA) 1423.7 (NA) 7.2

1983 ... ................. 88.5 91.5 89.1 84.2 78.2 32.2 57.6 51.1 43.2 36.7 22.0 9.2

1996 .... ................ 84.4 1187.4 (NA) 75.9 59.0 16.9 65.1 1165.8 (NA) 44.7 19.9 5.1

2006 .... ................ 82.6 1184.0 (NA) 76.5 60.2 16.5 71.1 1170.6 (NA) 58.3 32.6 5.2

Japan

1970 .... ................ 98.4 98.1 97.3 94.2 85.8 54.5 52.6 64.7 60.9 53.8 43.3 19.7

1980 .... ................ 98.3 98.0 97.3 94.0 81.5 46.0 52.9 62.3 58.7 50.7 38.8 16.1

1989 .... ................ 97.0 97.6 96.0 91.6 71.4 35.8 61.1 70.7 64.2 52.2 39.2 15.7

1999 .... ................ 97.1 97.5 97.1 94.7 74.1 35.5 64.5 71.8 67.9 58.7 39.8 14.9

2006 .... ................ 96.1 96.9 95.7 93.2 70.9 29.3 68.0 74.0 70.5 60.3 40.2 13.0

Malaysia

1970 .... ................ 93.4 91.1 86.7 76.4 66.1 46.6 40.6 42.2 38.2 30.7 25.1 13.7

1980 .... ................ 97.3 96.1 92.2 78.1 69.5 49.7 43.0 42.3 37.7 32.6 26.7 19.0

1991 .... ................ 92.3 92.4 87.1 65.0 53.3 31.8 41.9 35.8 29.6 20.6 14.6 6.7

2000 .... ................ 98.3 98.0 93.4 75.1 61.6 (NA) 54.5 49.6 40.6 28.5 23.2 (NA)

Pakistan

1972 .... ................ 96.0 96.3 94.3 90.8 85.6 65.7 8.6 7.7 9.5 7.3 8.6 8.9

1981 .... ................ 89.5 93.9 92.0 90.4 (NA) 8

75.7 3.3 2.7 3.1 2.4 (NA) 82.3

1994 ... ................. 97.5 97.2 96.5 91.5 78.8 52.7 14.1 15.6 13.9 15.3 11.8 7.4

2006 .... ................ 97.3 97.6 95.8 90.7 77.5 49.3 23.1 26.5 22.5 22.8 19.1 11.5

Philippines

1970 .... ................ 89.5 89.7 87.1 85.8 79.3 56.5 37.1 38.7 36.5 33.4 28.6 17.7

1978 .... ................ 97.6 1195.9 (NA) 1489.1 (NA) 60.6 48.1 1147.5 (NA) 1440.9 (NA) 23.1

1989 ... ................. 97.9 1197.4 (NA) 1488.9 (NA) 59.0 53.3 1158.2 (NA) 1450.7 (NA) 29.4

1999 ... ................. 97.4 1196.8 (NA) 1488.1 (NA) 54.5 57.2 1164.0 (NA) 1455.8 (NA) 29.8

2006 ... ................. 95.5 1193.8 (NA) 1480.6 (NA) 50.6 55.9 1163.3 (NA) 1454.1 (NA) 28.7

See footnotes at end of table.
168 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to

2006—Con.

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Asia—Con.

Singapore

1970 .......... .......... 98.2 96.2 88.1 73.9 55.6 31.9 23.2 17.5 17.5 16.2 13.4 6.5

1980 .... ................ 97.7 95.7 89.6 70.7 52.5 28.6 45.9 26.5 20.4 14.5 11.3 6.4

1989 .... ................ 97.9 96.1 89.2 66.6 48.2 20.7 60.6 41.3 30.7 19.4 11.0 5.0

2000 .... ................ 97.6 96.3 91.3 74.4 49.6 18.5 71.4 57.4 46.7 29.6 15.3 4.1

2006 .... ................ 97.1 96.5 93.3 81.9 62.5 22.0 74.5 66.2 59.5 44.6 26.2 8.3

South Korea

1970 .... ................ 93.0 95.2 91.9 85.4 67.9 35.1 38.8 48.5 45.2 39.1 26.9 10.6

1975 .... ................ 97.7 96.8 93.7 85.6 68.3 34.4 45.9 59.8 57.1 50.9 33.6 12.0

1989 .... ................ 94.8 93.6 89.7 82.4 65.6 39.0 51.3 63.5 60.4 52.7 41.6 18.1

1999 .... ................ 92.6 93.0 89.9 81.0 65.5 40.2 55.6 62.8 55.4 51.2 46.3 21.4

2006 .... ................ 90.5 93.1 89.7 79.9 68.5 42.0 61.4 64.4 58.5 49.7 43.8 22.7

Sri Lanka

1971 .... ................ 89.0 92.0 89.1 77.9 63.4 40.3 27.3 26.2 21.5 14.6 8.4 3.6

1981 .... ................ 93.1 92.3 87.4 74.3 56.6 35.7 32.5 25.2 19.3 13.2 6.9 3.8

1996 .... ................ 95.6 91.9 91.8 73.0 (NA) 8

38.6 46.0 39.0 32.3 27.2 (NA) 87.8

2000 ... ................. 95.2 95.6 88.8 76.8 (NA) 8

40.6 48.9 47.1 36.4 31.6 (NA) 810.2

Thailand

1970 .... ................ 96.2 95.9 93.5 89.3 74.6 44.6 79.3 79.6 73.8 65.9 47.5 21.2

1980 .... ................ 94.2 93.7 90.7 84.4 67.8 39.3 74.1 73.5 68.6 59.1 43.1 19.0

1994 .... ................ 1297.4 1397.5 (NA) 7

92.8 (NA) 847.2 1278.0 1376.7 (NA) 763.8 (NA) 823.5

2006 .... ............... . 1295.8 1396.7 (NA) 7

92.0 (NA) 852.2 1283.6 1383.6 (NA) 771.3 (NA) 827.3

Turkey

1970 .... ................ 94.5 94.9 91.9 88.0 83.0 67.8 51.8 52.9 53.6 50.0 47.6 35.1

1980 .... ................ 95.8 91.1 84.9 76.8 67.4 43.9 43.3 48.3 46.1 42.4 36.3 20.8

1988 .... ................ 97.8 89.2 82.7 71.5 59.2 33.8 37.7 36.3 36.4 29.4 20.9 10.9

1996 .... ................ 97.3 83.0 71.0 60.3 54.0 33.6 32.7 29.7 29.3 30.4 23.4 13.3

2006 .... ................ 93.2 82.0 65.4 51.3 39.8 22.0 30.8 24.8 21.8 18.5 14.5 6.6

Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina

1970 .... ................ 97.8 95.8 91.7 80.4 57.2 29.1 31.3 25.2 22.1 16.2 10.3 4.7

1980 .... ................ 94.9 92.4 87.6 77.6 51.9 17.9 35.3 30.2 25.4 17.6 9.8 3.2

1989 .... ................ 97.1 95.0 90.6 79.4 56.1 23.5 38.9 31.9 27.8 19.8 11.2 3.7

1995 .... ................ 94.6 93.6 90.0 82.8 63.2 27.6 55.5 53.2 46.6 35.4 22.6 8.9

2006 .... ................ 95.1 95.3 92.6 87.3 76.8 28.3 68.3 67.2 62.1 55.6 38.7 10.7

Brazil

1970 .... ................ 95.1 92.3 87.7 82.6 73.5 49.8 21.3 18.6 16.5 14.2 11.4 6.3

1980 .... ................ 96.0 91.5 85.7 77.9 67.0 32.4 34.3 28.1 23.5 18.6 12.6 4.8

1990 .... ................ 1296.6 1394.5 7

82.3 (NA) (NA) 846.0 1254.0 1349.5 734.5 (NA) (NA) 811.5

2000 .... ................ 92.7 88.2 7

76.8 (NA) 1749.8 1820.1 62.7 54.6 739.0 (NA) 1715.5 184.6

2004 .... ................ 94.7 92.1 85.8 77.6 64.9 35.1 71.6 65.4 57.3 45.5 30.9 14.1

Chile

1970 .... ................ 97.3 94.0 88.5 82.6 72.1 42.4 26.0 21.4 19.3 15.5 11.1 6.5

1982 .... ................ 94.8 90.1 82.8 72.8 61.5 25.5 32.2 26.0 21.9 16.2 10.1 4.5

1992 .... ................ 95.9 94.9 92.4 82.1 66.6 31.5 45.2 39.7 39.3 28.2 19.2 6.3

1999 .... ................ 95.6 95.9 91.3 83.4 69.2 27.4 50.1 47.1 42.9 32.4 21.0 6.5

2006 .... ................ 93.9 95.3 91.4 86.1 73.2 26.9 55.6 51.9 48.4 40.1 25.3 7.7

Colombia

1973 .... ................ 92.8 91.1 87.1 81.6 72.9 49.6 25.3 19.1 17.1 14.8 12.4 8.1

1985 .... ................ 5

91.1 (NA) 786.0 (NA) (NA) 858.4 544.0 (NA) 731.4 (NA) (NA) 816.7

1999 .... ............... . 1992.4 1396.0 7

88.2 (NA) 1755.4 1825.2 1974.8 1369.1 743.7 (NA) 1719.3 185.4

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 169

Table B-8.

Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex, Age, and Country: Selected Years 1969 to

2006—Con.

(In percent)

Country and year

Male Female

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

25 to

44

years

45 to

49

years

50 to

54

years

55 to

59

years

60 to

64

years

65

years

and

over

Latin America/

Caribbean—Con.

Costa Rica

1973 .... ................ 97.9 97.9 96.4 94.3 86.0 57.1 23.6 16.8 13.5 10.7 7.8 3.9

1984 .... ................ 93.8 92.3 88.7 83.0 69.6 38.9 29.5 20.9 15.5 11.6 6.9 3.1

1996 .... ................ 1295.9 1394.4 7

85.4 (NA) 1751.4 1821.1 1243.3 1344.2 722.2 (NA) 179.1 182.8

2006 .... ................ 96.3 95.7 92.5 87.2 71.1 29.1 57.6 54.3 42.0 35.0 20.3 6.8

Guatemala

1973 .... ................ 95.6 95.3 94.0 92.4 87.7 69.8 14.3 13.6 12.9 12.0 10.2 7.1

1981 .... ................ 93.2 93.2 91.7 90.3 85.8 66.9 14.9 12.2 11.6 10.1 9.0 6.5

1987 .... ................ 98.3 98.0 95.2 95.0 88.5 63.3 31.2 31.3 26.6 23.7 20.6 13.7

1998–99... .............. 97.3 97.7 95.1 94.1 87.2 71.4 51.4 56.4 46.9 45.1 41.0 28.8

2004 .... ................ 94.7 91.4 93.8 92.5 92.2 66.7 52.0 53.2 44.6 39.7 30.3 23.7

Jamaica

1975 .... ................ 97.9 1197.2 (NA) 1490.9 (NA) 64.7 78.6 1176.1 (NA) 1456.5 (NA) 27.0

1988 .......... .......... 80.1 1194.6 (NA) 1490.5 (NA) 52.4 60.9 1173.7 (NA) 1465.4 (NA) 24.9

1998 .......... .......... 95.2 1195.1 (NA) 1481.6 (NA) 46.4 79.2 1175.5 (NA) 1453.5 (NA) 18.4

2004 .......... .......... 94.3 1193.7 (NA) 1481.8 (NA) 41.4 76.9 1172.6 (NA) 1450.1 (NA) 17.3

Mexico

1970 .......... .......... 89.2 89.6 88.0 86.2 81.5 67.1 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.4 14.4 11.8

1980 .... ................ 95.5 95.3 93.8 91.4 85.6 68.6 32.6 29.1 27.5 24.6 24.1 18.6

1988 .... ................ 96.4 96.9 91.9 85.5 77.5 58.4 40.8 38.2 31.7 24.6 23.2 16.9

1996 .... ................ 97.2 95.6 91.9 85.6 74.1 52.0 44.8 41.3 35.0 31.2 23.8 14.1

2006 .... ................ 96.0 95.4 92.5 88.2 74.0 45.8 52.6 50.4 44.0 35.3 28.5 14.7

Peru

1972 .... ................ 96.3 97.1 95.5 92.8 83.9 61.5 22.3 19.5 17.9 16.1 13.4 8.5

1981 .... ................ 96.3 98.7 97.3 94.9 88.5 63.2 30.3 26.9 26.0 23.6 23.4 12.5

1989 .... ................ 95.2 94.4 88.3 83.2 75.0 34.6 60.3 54.4 42.9 38.8 23.9 12.0

1999 .... ................ 95.0 96.8 93.3 85.6 72.5 41.1 69.9 68.1 57.2 47.5 38.2 19.2

2006 .... ................ 95.3 98.7 94.6 87.0 65.5 28.8 70.1 67.0 56.2 39.2 34.9 15.3

Uruguay

1975 .... ................ 96.9 95.2 90.5 81.2 58.9 20.9 40.5 35.3 29.6 21.7 12.2 3.6

1985 .... ................ 96.5 94.3 89.4 80.0 51.8 16.2 51.7 46.4 37.5 25.3 13.3 3.6

1995 .... ................ 97.4 96.4 94.3 89.3 59.3 19.4 73.0 64.6 59.5 41.0 23.9 6.7

2006 .... ................ 99.7 97.9 96.4 91.2 68.8 19.7 75.4 75.9 69.4 58.7 39.0 8.4

(NA) Not available.

1 Refers to ages 65 to 66 years. 2 Data prior to 1996 refer to the former West Germany. 3 Refers to ages 65 to 74 years. 4 Data for 2000 and 2006 are averages of reported quarterly rates. 5 Refers to ages 25 to 49 years. 6 Refers to ages 50 to 64 years. 7 Refers to ages 50 to 59 years. 8 Refers to ages 60 years and over. 9 Data prior to 1991 refer to the former Czechoslovakia. 10 Refers to ages 65 to 70 years. 11 Refers to ages 45 to 54 years. 12 Refers to ages 25 to 39 years. 13 Refers to ages 40 to 49 years. 14 Refers to ages 55 to 64 years. 15 Refers to ages 45 to 59 years. 16 Refers to ages 25 to 54 years. 17 Refers to ages 60 to 69 years. 18 Refers to ages 70 years and over. 19 Refers to ages 20 to 39 years.

Note: For some countries in this table, data are derived from labor force surveys as well as population censuses. Labor force surveys are more focused on

economic activity than are general census enumerations and, therefore, may yield more comprehensive information on various aspects of economic activity. The user should recognize that temporal differences in labor force participation rates within a country may, in part, reflect different modes of data collection.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division data files; International Labour Organization, various issues of the Yearbook of Labour Statistics; and the

International Labour Organization electronic database accessible at <http://laborsta.ilo.org/>.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 171

This report includes data compiled 

by the International Programs 

Center (IPC) in the Population 

Division of the U.S. Census 

Bureau from publications and 

electronic files of national statistical offices, several agencies 

of the United Nations, and other 

international organizations (e.g., 

the Organisation for Economic 

Co-Operation and Development 

and the European Union). It also 

includes crossnational information 

from sources such as the Global 

Burden of Disease Project 

<www.who.int/topics/global

_burden_of_disease>; the Survey 

of Health, Ageing and Retirement in 

Europe <www.share-project.org>; 

and other university-based 

research projects. 

The majority of statistics, including the demographic projections 

in Appendix B, are contained in 

an International Data Base (IDB), 

maintained and updated by the 

IPC. Since 1985, IDB data have been 

available in an evolving variety of 

formats, including printed hard 

copy, mainframe computer tape, 

and PC diskettes. The current IDB 

is maintained on and made accessible via the Internet at 

<www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/>.

With the initial and ongoing support from the Behavioral and 

Social Research Program of the 

U.S. National Institute on Aging, 

the Census Bureau has undertaken 

a systematic effort to locate and 

compile data on older populations for a subset of IDB countries 

and subject matter (e.g., marital 

status and labor force participation). The intent of this effort is 

to make available to researchers a 

relatively consistent, documented 

set of data that can be used to 

analyze and anticipate international 

concerns related to the aging of 

the world’s population. It should be 

noted, though, that while IDB data 

are statistical estimates based on 

censuses and surveys conducted 

by national statistical offices and 

international organizations, standard errors are not provided in the 

IDB for the data from those censuses and surveys. Accordingly, no 

conclusions can be reached concerning the statistical significance 

of differences between population 

estimates presented in this report. 

Selected data from the IDB appear 

in tables in Appendix B. Further 

information about the Census 

Bureau’s IDB and related statistics 

may be obtained by contacting:

Chief, International Programs 

 Center

Population Division

U.S. Census Bureau

Washington, DC 20233

Basic Demographic Data

Estimated and projected population distributions by age and 

sex are taken from IPC data files 

except where noted. Many of the 

countries covered in this report 

have produced their own national 

population projections, and different statistical agencies generate 

country-specific sets of projections for all but the least populous 

countries. National, Census Bureau, 

United Nations, and other projection series are in general agreement over the next 20 to 30 years. 

This is especially true with regard 

to older populations, since people 

who will join the ranks of older 

population groups in 2040 have 

been born already. Because tomorrow’s older people have survived 

the risks of infant and childhood 

mortality, their continued survival is subject to adult mortality 

rates that can be estimated with 

a relatively high degree of confidence until very old ages (though 

estimates in some countries may 

be confounded by the changing 

impact of HIV/AIDS). Because the 

effects of migration on projected 

cohorts are minimal in most cases, 

projections of the absolute numbers of older people may be considered fairly reliable.

Of less certainty are projected 

population proportions and related 

measures, such as youth support 

ratios. The size of youth cohorts 

is often the most important factor 

in determining overall population aging. Population projections 

for developing countries usually 

assume a future decline in fertility 

rates that will eventually result in 

older population age structures. 

The pace and level of fertility 

reduction is debatable, however, 

and as a result, older proportions 

in population projections will vary 

to the extent that actual fertility 

change deviates from its assumed 

trajectory. Projections for developed countries are less sensitive 

to such uncertainty because of 

the extent of fertility decline that 

has already occurred. With fertility 

now well below replacement level 

in most developed countries, the 

issue for projections is whether to 

assume a future rebound in fertility. In some developed countries, 

changes in migration levels could 

APPENDIX C.

Sources and Limitations of the Data
172 An Aging World: 2008 U.S. Census Bureau

have a larger future impact than 

birth rates on overall age structure.

Most of the variation in projections 

of the size of older populations 

appears to result from uncertainty 

about mortality at the oldest ages. 

Projections require assumptions 

about future trends, and most past 

projections have not anticipated 

the continued declines in mortality rates at older ages that have 

occurred in developed countries. 

Projections made in 1984 (Torrey, 

Kinsella, and Taueber, 1987) 

implied that the Japanese population aged 80 and over would constitute slightly less than 5 percent 

of the total Japanese population 

by the year 2025. In the years 

after 1984, however, the decline 

in fertility and the increase in life 

expectancy (both at birth and at 

older ages) have been sharper than 

expected. Hence, revised projections to 2025 imply a somewhat 

smaller total population, and the 

oldest-old share of the total is now 

projected to be 10 percent by the 

year 2025. For the most part, bestguess demographic forecasts have 

tended to be “conservative” with 

regard to mortality improvement, 

meaning that future numbers of 

older people may be understated. 

In terms of social service planning 

for future cohorts of the oldest 

old, the example of Japan underscores the magnitude of potential 

“error” with which planners may 

be confronted. This suggests a 

need for more analytical attention 

to the assumptions and outcomes 

of population projections about 

the number of older people. 

Toward this end, organizational 

units including the United Nations’ 

Population Division, Eurostat, and 

the Census Bureau’s Population 

Division, in conjunction with members of academia and sponsors, 

such as the U.S. National Institute 

on Aging, have pooled their 

combined expertise to refine and 

improve projection procedures. For 

a detailed critique and discussion 

of such procedures, see National 

Research Council (2000).

Census Bureau population projections for a given country incorporate several components. The 

initial population age/sex structure 

usually is based on a national 

census distribution, with or without adjustment, as determined by 

Census Bureau analysts. Analysts 

then derive—either directly using 

reported data or indirectly using 

demographic techniques—empirical age-sex-specific mortality, 

fertility, and international migration rates, considering the range 

of available data (e.g., from demographic and other surveys, vital 

registration systems, and other 

administrative statistics). These 

benchmark estimates form the 

basis for projected changes in the 

population age/sex structure. In 

countries where reliable, nationally representative data for one or 

more of these variables are lacking, 

rates from demographic models 

or culturally similar neighboring countries may be employed. 

Future levels of fertility, mortality, 

and migration are incorporated 

based on observed country-specific 

trends and the accumulated experience of other nations at different 

stages of demographic and socioeconomic development.

With regard to the age structure 

of older populations, potential 

sources of error usually have been 

assumed to be minor in most (but 

not all) countries. To date, demographers have devoted much more 

attention to analyzing age inaccuracies at younger rather than older 

ages. However, inaccuracies at 

older ages do occur. An individual’s 

age is often undocumented in some 

societies and subcultures, and 

knowledge of exact age may not 

be an important concern. Hence, 

reported ages of older respondents 

tend to heap on certain round 

numbers (60, 65, 70, etc.). Many of 

these inaccuracies can be detected 

and statistically adjusted and are 

commonly accounted for in population projections.

Available evidence suggests that 

the older population as a whole is 

not undercounted in censuses more 

than other age groups. In most 

countries, older people are less apt 

than those in younger age groups 

to be geographically mobile and 

thus, in theory, should be easier to 

enumerate. Within the older population, however, there are indications 

that women are missed more often 

than men. In some South Asian and 

African societies, national censuses 

routinely count more men than 

women in older age groups, in spite 

of the fact that the estimated life 

expectancy of women is and has 

been higher than that of men in 

practically all countries.

Socioeconomic

Characteristics

Data on labor force participation, 

marital status, and other socioeconomic characteristics are primarily 

derived from published census and 

survey data of various countries 

as compiled by the Census Bureau. 

Although no techniques have been 

applied to evaluate the quality of 

these socioeconomic statistics, the 

Census Bureau attempts to resolve 

discrepancies in reported figures 

and compile information in standard formats within the structure 

of the IDB.

IDB data are not always comparable among countries for two 

main reasons: (1) complete statistics may not be available to allow 

manipulation of data into standard 

formats, and (2) concepts and 

definitions vary according to the 
U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 173

specific needs of each country. For 

example, a country with only a few 

small urban centers may need a different definition of urban than does 

a highly industrialized country that 

is predominantly urban. Uneven 

progress has been made during 

the past half century to encourage 

disparate national statistical agencies to adhere to defined international standards of data collection 

and tabulation. As a result, some 

concepts (e.g., literacy) are more 

internationally comparable than 

others (e.g., labor force participation). To the extent possible, the 

Census Bureau has accounted for 

statistical and conceptual differences when compiling IDB country 

files. Remaining deviations from 

standard formats and other data 

anomalies are documented in the 

annotation that forms part of the 

IDB files. Where applicable, national 

definitions of major concepts 

such as “urban” and “economically 

active” are included in IDB files to 

allow the user to recognize differences among countries.

As population aging has assumed 

greater importance and received 

greater recognition over time, 

international agencies have produced a growing amount of data on 

older populations. This is especially 

true in the areas of health, economic activity, income, and retirement. As a result, this report draws 

substantially on crossnational 

data and comparisons produced 

by a variety of organizations and 

research consortia whose subjectmatter expertise in these areas is 

invaluable to a better understanding of an aging world.

U.S. Census Bureau An Aging World: 2008 175

Many of the data in this report are 

taken or derived from hundreds of 

sources not generally included in 

the following reference list. These 

unnamed sources consist mainly 

of primary census and survey 

volumes and electronic tabulations from individual nations, as 

well as periodic issues and updates 

of international compendia, 

such as the International Labour 

Organization LABORSTA Statistics 

Database and the United Nations 

Demographic Yearbook.

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