APPENDIX R. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS R.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... R.1-1 R.2 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS .......... R.1-1 R.2.1 NES/NPV Results Using High Economic Growth Scenario ............. R.1-1 R.2.2 NES/NPV Results Using Low Economic Growth Scenario ............. R.1-4R.3 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOSCOMPARISON ..................................................... R.1-8 R.3.1 National Energy Savings (NES) .................................. R. 1-8 R.3.2 Net Present Value (NPV) ....................................... R.1-12 LIST OF TABLES Table R.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) .............. R.1-1 Table R.2.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) .................. R. 1-2 Table R.2.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ................. R. 1-2 Table R.2.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (High Growth) ........................ R. 1-3 Table R.2.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (High Growth) ..................... R. 1-3 Table R.2.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (High Growth) .......................... R. 1-4 Table R.2.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) .............. R. 1-4 Table R.2.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) .................. R. 1-5 Table R.2.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) ................. R. 1-5 Table R.2. 10 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (Low Growth) ......................... R.1-6 Table R.2.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (Low Growth) ...................... R. 1-6 Table R.2.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present

Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (Low Growth) .......................... R.l-7

R-i 

### APPENDIX 

### R. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS TABLE OF CONTENTS R.l INTRODUCTION .................................................. , R.l-l R.2 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS .......... R.l-l R.2.1 NES/NPV Results Using High Economic Growth Scenario ............. R.1-1 R.2.2 NES/NPV Results Using Low Economic Growth Scenario ............. R.1-4 R.3 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOSCOMPARISON ..................................................... R.l-S R.3.1 National Energy Savings (NES) .................................. R.l-S R.3.2 Net Present Value (NPV) ....................................... R.1-12 LIST OF TABLES Table R.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . " .......... , R.l-l Table R.2.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) .................. R.1-2 Table R.2.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ................. R.1-2 Table R.2.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (High Growth) ........................ R.1-3 Table R.2.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (High Growth) ..................... R.1-3 Table R.2.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (High Growth) .......................... R.1-4 Table R.2.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) .............. R.1-4 Table R.2.S Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) .................. R.1-5 Table R.2.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) ................. R.1-5 Table R.2.1 0 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (Low Growth) ........................ , R.1-6 Table R.2.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R.1-6 Table R.2.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (Low Growth) .......................... R.1-7

R-iLIST OF FIGURES

Figure R.3.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) .......... R.1-8 Figure R.3.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ............... R. 1-9 Figure R.3.3 Mobile Home Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ............. R. 1-9 Figure R.3.4 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) .................... R.1-10 Figure R.3.5 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ..................... R.1-10 Figure R.3.6 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ...................... R.1-11 Figure R.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ......... R.1-12 Figure R.3.8 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ............. R.1-12 Figure R.3.9 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ................ R.1-13 Figure R.3.10 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) .................... R.1-13 Figure R.3.11 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..................... R.1-14 Figure R.3.12 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..................... R.1-14 

### LIST OF FIGURES Figure R.3.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) .......... R.1-8 Figure R.3.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ............... R.1-9 Figure R.3.3 Mobile Home Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ............. R.I-9 Figure R.3.4 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) .................... R.l-lO Figure R.3.5 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ..................... R.l-lO Figure R.3.6 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES) ...................... R.l-ll Figure R.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ......... R.1-12 Figure R.3.8 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ............. R.I-12 Figure R.3.9 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ................ R.I-13 Figure R.3.10 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) .................... R.1-13 Figure R.3.11 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..................... R.1-14 Figure R.3.12 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) ..................... R.I-14

R-iiAPPENDIX R. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS R.1 INTRODUCTION This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) results for alternative installation costs (for non-weatherized gas furnaces and gas boilers), and alternative energy price scenarios for all product classes. DOE explained the calculations of NES and NPV using the reference installation costs and the default energy price forecast in Chapter 10, National Impact Analysis. R.2 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS For each product class, DOE calculated NES and NPV using energy price scenarios from the High and Low Economic Growth cases. The NES results are the same in each energy price scenario. As one would expect, the NPV is most favorable using prices in the High Growth scenario, and least favorable using prices in the Low Growth scenario. R.2.1 NES/NPV Results Using High Economic Growth Scenario Table R.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES ( Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 A 80% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 2 81% AFUE 0.36 0.15 1.44 B 90% AFUE 3.20 -0.21 7.80 4 90% AFUE 3.20 -0.21 7.80 5 96% AFUE 5.59 -19.2 -27.9 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces High Growth) 

### APPENDIX R. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS R.1 INTRODUCTION This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) results for alternative installation costs (for non-weatherized gas furnaces and gas boilers), and alternative energy price scenarios for all product classes. DOE explained the calculations of NES and NPV using the reference installation costs and the default energy price forecast in Chapter 10, National Impact Analysis. 

### R.2 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS For each product class, DOE calculated NES and NPV using energy price scenarios from the High and Low Economic Growth cases. The NES results are the same in each energy price scenario. As one would expect, the NPV is most favorable using prices in the High Growth scenario, and least favorable using prices in the Low Growth scenario. 

### R.2.1 NESINPV Results Using High Economic Growth Scenario Table R.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% 

### Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 A 80%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 2 81% AFUE 0.36 0.15 1.44 B 90%AFUE 3.20 -0.21 7.80 4 90%AFUE 3.20 -0.21 7.80 5 96%AFUE 5.59 -19.2 -27.9

R-lTable R.2.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 80% AFUE 0.02 0.04 0.12 A 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 2 81 % AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 B 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 4 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 5 83% AFUE 0.15 -0.20 -0.18 Table R.2.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES ( Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 A 80% AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 2 80% AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 B 90% AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13 4 90% AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13 5 90% AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13 Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Hi h Growth 

### Table R.2.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for W th . d G F (H· h G th) ea enze as urnaces 19l 

### row Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.02 0.04 0.12 A 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 2 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 B 81%AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 4 81% AFUE 0.06 0.15 0.44 5 83%AFUE 0.15 -0.20 -0.18 

### Table R.2.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 A 80%AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 2 80%AFUE 0.02 0.09 0.25 B 90%AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13 4 90%AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13 5 90%AFUE -0.02 0.36 1.13

R-2Table R.2.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.001 0.005 0.01 A 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 2 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 B 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 4 84% AFUE 0.04 0.01 0.12 5 85% AFUE 0.05 -0.03 0.06 Table R.2.5 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 82% AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 A 82% AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 2 84% AFUE 0.26 0.33 1.07 B 82% AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 4 84% AFUE 0.26 0.33 1.57 5 99% AFUE 1.16 -3.53 -4.02 Hot Water Gas Boilers (Hi gh Growth 

### Table R.2.4 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (Hi2h Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.001 0.005 0.01 A 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 2 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 B 

### 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 4 84%AFUE 0.04 0.01 0.12 5 85%AFUE 0.05 -0.03 0.06 Table R.2.S Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (Hi2h Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 82%AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 A 82%AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 2 84%AFUE 0.26 0.33 1.07 B 

### 82%AFUE 0.15 0.28 1.07 4 84%AFUE 0.26 0.33 1.57 5 99%AFUE 1.16 -3.53 -4.02

R-3Table R.2.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 83% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 A 83% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 2 83% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 B 84% AFUE 0.02 0.01 0.12 4 84% AFUE 0.02 0.01 0.12 5 95% AFUE 0.28 -0.94 -0.47 R.2.2 NES/NPV Results Using Low Economic Growth Scenario Table R.2.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES ( Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 80% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 2 81% AFUE 0.31 0.20 1.44 B 90% AFUE 2.72 0.44 8.63 4 90% AFUE 2.72 0.44 8.63 5 

# T 96% AFUE 4.75 -15.5 -20.2 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) 

### Table R.2.6 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (High Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 

### 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 A 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 2 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.13 B 

### 84%AFUE 0.02 0.01 0.12 4 84%AFUE 0.02 0.01 0.12 5 95%AFUE 0.28 -0.94 -0.47 

### R.2.2 NESINPV Results Using Low Economic Growth Scenario Table R.2.7 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 

### 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 80%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 2 81% AFUE 0.31 0.20 1.44 B 

### 90%AFUE 2.72 0.44 8.63 4 90%AFUE 2.72 0.44 8.63 5 96%AFUE 4.75 -15.5 -20.2

R-4Table R.2.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 80% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 81 % AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 2 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 B 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 4 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 5 83% AFUE 0.13 -0.14 -0.06 Table R.2.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES ( Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 A 80% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 2 80% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 B 90% AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80 4 90% AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80 5 90% AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80 Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Low Growth 

### Table R.2.8 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% 

### Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 2 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 B 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 4 81% AFUE 0.05 0.14 0.41 5 83%AFUE 0.13 -0.14 -0.06 

### Table R.2.9 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% 

### Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 A 80%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 2 80%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.20 B 90%AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80 4 90%AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80 5 90%AFUE -0.01 0.26 0.80

R-5Table R.2.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (Low Growth Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 8) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 80% AFUE 0.001 0.005 0.01 A 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 2 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 B 82% AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 4 84% AFUE 0.04 0.02 0.14 5 85% AFUE 0.05 -0.02 0.10 Table R.2.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 82% AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 A 82% AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 2 84% AFUE 0.23 0.37 1.07 B 82% AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 4 84% AFUE 0.23 0.37 1.62 5 99% AFUE 1.02 -2.77 -2.38 Hot Water Gas Boilers (Low Growth 

### Table R.2.10 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Furnaces (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 80%AFUE 0.001 0.005 0.01 A 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 2 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 B 

### 82%AFUE 0.02 0.08 0.19 4 84%AFUE 0.04 0.02 0.14 5 85%AFUE 0.05 -0.02 0.10 Table R.2.11 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Hot Water Gas Boilers (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 82%AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 A 82%AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 2 84%AFUE 0.23 0.37 1.07 B 

### 82%AFUE 0.13 0.29 1.07 4 84%AFUE 0.23 0.37 1.62 5 99%AFUE 1.02 -2.77 -2.38

R-6Table R.2.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) (TSL) (AFUE) 7% Discount Rate 3%

Discount Rate 1 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 83% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 2 83% AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 B 84% AFUE 0.02 0.02 0.12 4 84% AFUE 0.02 0.02 0.12 5 95% AFUE 0.24 -0.72 -0.14 

### Table R,2.12 Cumulative National Energy Savings and Consumer Net Present Value for Oil-Fired Boilers (Low Growth) Trial Standard Level Efficiency Level NES (Quads) NPV (billion 2006 $) 

### (TSL) (AFUE) 7% 3% 

### Discount Discount Rate Rate 1 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 A 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 2 83%AFUE 0.01 0.04 0.12 B 84%AFUE 0.02 0.02 0.12 4 84%AFUE 0.02 0.02 0.12 5 95%AFUE 0.24 -0.72 -0.14

R-7R.3 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOSCOMPARISON The following figures graphically display the NES and NPV for all product classes under the low growth, the reference case, and the high growth energy price scenarios. R.3.1 National Energy Savings (NES)

6
D Reference 5 _ t3 Low Economic Growth

O High Economic Growth
4 it

A d c 3 

## F fq u O 0 M 2

1 - I

0 Fop I I

TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) 

### R.3 RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOSCOMPARISON The following figures graphically display the NES and 

### NPV for all product classes under the low growth, the reference case, and the high growth energy price scenarios. 

### R.3.1 National Energy Savings (NES)



# " -g**~** 

## .. CI**~3 r-** **---- ----** **---- ----** **-- --** **---- --** **~ ~**  " .g**2~ --** **-- --** **-- --** **-- --** **~-~ --** **---**

TSL1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 TSL5 

### Figure R.3.1 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-80 16 . 0.14 0 Reference

® Low Economic Growth q High Economic Growth 12 0 . -.._--
0 10 . d 0 5 0.08

-- 0 0.06 -- - --
0.04

::: 

# AC - --- -----_-_ I -^ _- -------_.

TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES) 0.02 O Reference I Low Economic Growth 4 1 13 High Economic Growth

0 01 - I I l

.

I c N ] I [ , ILIL 0 00 , . > od U) TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 M 151. ' 2 0
-0 01 - . -

-0.02 Figure R.3.3 Mobile Home Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-9 0.16,------------------------------------------------------------------------, 0.14 0.12 + ------------ ------- 

## 1 0
. 10**~** 

## .. '" 

## 'i 0.08 

### .,**~** " ell 0.06 +------------.. - --- -----.=....- -- ------r==;- ...- ---- -- ____--------""=;_
0.04 0.02 +------------- 0.00 . TSL 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 TSL5 

### Figure R.3.2 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES)



# .. 'tI 

## .. " Q. 

## .. '" c .;: 

## .. ., 

## .. I:! " 0 

### .,**0.02r-----~==~ --** **------===_--------===_---------------- --** **------------------~**

0.01

0.00 TSL 1

-0.01 TSLA TSL2 [] Referen ce**~Low** Econ omic Growth [J High Econ o m ic Growt h

-0.02 -'-
-------- -- -------------- -- ---- -----------------------------------------' 

### Figure R.3.3 Mobile Home Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-90.06
61 Reference 0.05 ---- f7 Low Economic Growth

0 High Economic Growth

0.04 

### N I

0.03 1 0. 02 - I

0.01 - ^

0.00 TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.4 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

1.20
Reference 1.00 ^Low Economic Growth

High Economic Growth

N 0.80 - i t
O 0.60 U)
N 0 40 . -

0.20

0.00 TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.5 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-100.30
13 Reference 0.25 OLow Economic Growth

q High Economic Growth t
0 20 . C rn 0.15 - -- - - N O 0.10 ------

0.05

0 00 

### .TI

. .:.... . TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.6 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-11 0. 30,-
-------------- -- ------------------,


# " m Q. VI '" 0.25 -1-----< -

0.20 +- -- - - .... - - --- - . - --.--- ... 

## t 0.15 til**~** ::I al 0 . 10 +- --- -- ..- --- - --..- ---- - .-.----. - ---- -

0.051--
- - ---- - - --- - ---- - ------ - -- - -1

0.00 f- L--
-------'-..........I-....**""- -'--.-'------'** **''''''''- -'-~--'--**  TSL 1 TSLA TSL 2 TSLB TSL4 

### Figure R.3.6 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NES)

R-ll TSL5R.3.2 Net Present Value (NPV)

5

0 TSL 1 TSLA TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 I E7 Reference 1 Low Economic Growth 13 High Economic Growth o -5
C O a -10 z

15 -

-20 Figure R.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)
0.15 .i -. _ _....._..

0.10

0.05
io 0.00 -

- .^ - ^- .

TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 o I 0 05 - . t 0 Reference z z © Low Economic Growth

q High Economic Growth i -0.10 T -0.15 ---

0 20 - . Figure R.3.8 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) R-12 

### R.3.2 Net Present Value (NPV)

:g -5 C>**~** .5 !!**~** 

### e TSL 1 mReference I!I Low Economic Growth !JHigh Economic Growth TSLA TSL2 TSLB ..:::= TSL4**~ -10+-----------~** **--- ------------------------------------------**  __ z**-15+-----------------·~--------------------------------------- ~0L----------------------------------------------------------------------**  

### Figure R.3.7 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)
0.15**,----- --** **--------, ..--** **-r --.** **----.~;-- _r____r_** **--___..**.....

### --r_ _,_--__._..,,____.--,- - ------r
0.10 i - ----------- I
0.05 {------------- I iD C>**~** 0.00 .5 "**~** :a ;; -0.05 

## r---;;;==========:::;---------------------- [**~** rn Reference

-0.10 13 low Economic Growth o High Economic Growth

-0.15 +--- -- ----------------------- -- -----------------------
-0.20 "--------------------------------------------------==--' 

### Figure R.3.8 Weatherized Gas Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) R-120 40 .
0 35 0Reference

. 03 Low Economic Growth

q High Economic Growth 0.30
0.25 w - -
c 0.20 0 ----- -- i -
IL z 0 15 . ---
0 10 .
0 05 .
0 00
-------- `- . -.

TSL 1 TSLA TSL 2 TSLB TSL 4 TSL 5 Figure R.3.9 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV) 0.08
0.06
0.04

NN G .2 0.02 i^
0.00 TSL 1 TSLA TSL 2 TSLB TSL 4

O Reference -0.02 6Low Economic Growth

13 High Economic Growth

-0 04 . Figure R.3.10 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

R-13 0.40
0 .35
0 . 30
CD 0. 25 c:> c:> '" 

# .. .5**~** 0 .20**~** 

## e > 11. Z 0 . 1 5

0 . 1 0
0 . 05
0.00 TS L 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TS L 4 TSL5 

### Figure R.3.9 Mobile Home Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

0.08 , ---- -- --; = = = :::;-- -==

0. 06 t-- ..- - - - - -

0 .04 CD c:> c:> '" 

# ..

. 5**~** 0 .02 c**~** 

### e > 11. Z 0 . 00 TS L 1 TS LA TSL2 TSLB**~.O2**

-0.04 .1-

___________________________________ -1 

### Figure R.3 . 10 Oil-fired Furnace Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

R- 130.50



# - 0 00 HI "-a '. _,I^ I 

# Ff I

. TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 hl, -0.50 ----
-1.00 D Reference ---

8 Low Economic Growth O High Economic Growth -1.50 c 0 M-2.00 IL -2.50 -
-3.00 -3.50
-4.00 Figure R.3.11 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

0.20
0.00 ^-^ ,--

TSL I TSLA TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4

-0.20 13 Reference

0 Low Economic Growth q High Economic Growth
c -0 40 . O
zz -0.60

-0.80

-1.00 Figure R.3.12 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

R-14**O.~r----------------------------------------------------------------------- -'**  0.00 .{l .50 t------------- ---.- -------- - ... - -------- -1.00 iD 

### re '"**-1.~** f---
--------- .5 

# .. c**~** ;§. -2.00 t--------------------------------------- -- - --------------- I> Ii: z -2 .50 f-
------------ ------------------------------------------------- II

-3.00 t--,,-------------------------------------- --------------- -3 .50 -j---
-- -- -- -- --- ·-- -- -- ---- -- ------ -- -- -- ------------ -------- -- -- -- -- -LJ--I**.0 0~-----------------------------------------------------------------~**  

### Figure R.3.11 Gas-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

:g co**~** .5 0.20 -y------------------------------------------------------------------------,

TSL 1 TSLA TSL 2 TS LB TSL4 .{l.20**~** -0.40 ;§. Ii: z -0.60 +--------------- ------------------- -----------------------1

.{l .80-j-
----- -- ------ --- -- ------ ----- -- ------ -- ---- ---- ------

-1.00**~--------------------------------------------------------------~** 

### Figure R.3.12 Oil-fired Boiler Energy Price Scenarios (NPV)

R-14